the missing link intra country evidence on the relationship between high and uncertain inflation from high inflation countries the notion that high inflation breeds high uncertainty about future inflation is widely accepted this acceptance is based largely on a positive correlation between the mean and variability of inflation across countries 2 this positive relationship is taken as evidence that high inflation creates high uncertainty 3 recently though driffill mizon and ulph 10 have questioned the relevance of this cross country evidence for making inferences about welfare issues within countries they argue that it is the relationship between the time series mean and variance within a country that is important when considering the potential costs of inflation in this paper we examine the within country time series link between the level and uncertainty of inflation for ten countries that experienced a period of very high inflation we use data generated from regression based forecasts of inflation and historical data on actual forecasts our sample does not provide evidence of a general positive link within these countries the ten countries we study are argentina bolivia brazil chile colombia israel mexico peru turkey and uruguay in these countries the average annualized rate of inflation from the quarterly data in our sample was about 54 per year and the average sample standard deviation

redistributional aspects of tax evasion most empirical studies of income distribution use official tax data based on reported income in the presence of tax evasion or a large irregular economy such data give an incorrect picture of the actual income distribution in this paper a model of tax evasion originally due to allingham and sandmo 1972 is developed to analyze the relation between the actual and the officially reported income distribution it is shown that within the framework of this model the distribution of total income which also takes income from the hidden sector into account is generally more uneven than the distribution of officially reported disposable income it is also concluded that in the presence of tax evasion government policy aimed at reducing the degree of inequality can sometimes be counterproductive policy measures which seem egalitarian in the sense that they make the distribution of officially reported disposable income more even might very well make total income less evenly distributed

forecasting day ahead electricity load using a multiple equation time series approach the quality of short term electricity load forecasting is crucial to the operation and trading activities of market participants in an electricity market in this paper it is shown that a multiple equation time series model which is estimated by repeated application of ordinary least squares has the potential to match or even outperform more complex nonlinear and nonparametric forecasting models the key ingredient of the success of this simple model is the effective use of lagged information by allowing for interaction between seasonal patterns and intra day dependencies although the model is built using data for the queensland region of australia the method is completely generic and applicable to any load forecasting problem the model s forecasting ability is assessed by means of the mean absolute percentage error mape for day ahead forecast the mape returned by the model over a period of 11 years is an impressive 1 36 the forecast accuracy of the model is compared with a number of benchmarks including three popular alternatives and one industrial standard reported by the australia energy market operator aemo the performance of the model developed in this paper is superior to all benchmarks and outperforms the aemo forecasts by about a third in terms of the mape criterion

fraudulent collection of unemployment benefits a theoretical analysis with reference to income tax evasion abstract the harshest abusers of the unemployment insurance program are those employed who collect benefits while working this paper analyzes fraudulent claiming behavior and optimal deterrence policy under two alternative penalty schemes commonly used in tax evasion analyses one relates punishment to the magnitude of the dishonesty whereas the other relates punishment to the amount of illegal returns two exclusive features of fraudulent benefit claiming are given special attention the requirement to report at a labor exchange to demonstrate availability for work and the need to serve a waiting period before benefits can be collected

agent based analysis of the impact of the imbalance pricing mechanism on market behavior in electricity balancing markets abstract the imbalance pricing mechanism is an important design variable within european type electricity balancing markets that determines the incentives given to so called balance responsible parties brps to balance their electricity production and consumption portfolio to analyze the impact of alternative imbalance pricing mechanisms on balancing market performance an agent based model has been built in which the brps are the agents that decide autonomously in each round on their balancing strategy based on results in past rounds six alternative mechanisms are analyzed it is concluded that aiming for a small long position is generally the preferable brp strategy different imbalance pricing mechanisms lead to comparable system imbalances but single pricing results in the lowest imbalance costs for the brps and for the market as a whole

progressive income taxation and the underground economy abstract with a progressive income tax system decreasing absolute and nondecreasing relative risk aversion are sufficient conditions for either a rise in the tax rate or a revenue neutral increase in progressivity to cause growth in the underground economy

inflation output growth and nominal and real uncertainty empirical evidence for the g7 abstract we use univariate garch models of inflation and output growth and monthly data for the g7 covering the 1957 2000 period to test for the causal effect of real and nominal macroeconomic uncertainty on inflation and output growth and the effect of inflation on inflation uncertainty our evidence supports a number of important conclusions first inflation is a positive determinant of uncertainty about inflation second output growth uncertainty is a positive determinant of the output growth rate third there is mixed evidence regarding the effect of inflation uncertainty on inflation and output growth hence uncertainty about the inflation rate is not necessarily detrimental to economic growth finally there is not much evidence supporting the hypothesis that output uncertainty raises inflation

inflation and inflation uncertainty in china abstractthe study examines the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty in china using generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model particularly this link is investigated in china s urban and rural sectors motivated by the substantial urban rural divide the results provide strong statistical supportive evidence that higher inflation raises inflation uncertainty on the other hand evidence on the effect of inflation uncertainty on inflation is mixed depending on the sample periods and areas examined the understanding of inflation uncertainty nexus in china could provide implications to policymakers in the adoption of monetary policies

balancing energy strategies in electricity portfolio management traditional management of electricity portfolios is focused on the day ahead market and futures of longer maturity within limits market participants can however also resort to the balancing energy market to close their positions in this paper we determine strategic positions in the balancing energy market and identify corresponding economic incentives in an analysis of the german balancing energy demand we find that those strategies allow an economically optimal starting point for real time balancing and create a marketplace for flexible capacity that is more open than alternative marketplaces the strategies we proffer in this paper we believe will contribute to an effective functioning of the electricity market

the level and uncertainty of inflation results from oecd forecasts bryce e kanago there is considerable evidence that inflation variability and the level of inflation are positively related across countries evidence of a within county relation is mixed evidence for a significant positive relation comes mostly from studies using some survey measure contrary evidence comes mostly from studies using regression errors our measure of uncertainty is the squared forecast error from organization for economic cooperation and development inflation forecasts most countries do not exhibit a positive and significant relation the greatest number of positive coefficients is for relative uncertainty regressed on contemporaneous inflation jel e310 e370 1342 1340 1323 i introduction although empirical studies have not reached a unanimous conclusion most economists believe one detriment of high inflation is the greater uncertainty it generates about future inflation affirmative evidence of a positive relation between inflation and uncertainty is most frequently found in cross country studies that regress some measure of variability or uncertainty for each country on their average inflation rate time series regressions for individual countries provide mixed results those time series studies that derive inflation uncertainty from a survey of forecasters conclude that higher inflation causes greater uncertainty time series studies that derive uncertainty from ex post regressions constructed by researchers provide most of the negative evidence 1 it is tempting to dismiss this negative evidence as the consequence of poorly or opportunistically constructed ex post forecasts in this paper we use annual inflation forecasts for organization for economic cooperation and development oecd countries that have been published in the oecd s economic outlook for about 30 years these data circumvent the problems of constructing forecasts after the fact for each date and each country a single forecast is provided by contrast survey data such as the livingston data average the forecasts of a number of respondents to the extent that the survey sample is representative of the population the surveys may provide a better approximation to the public s expectations however survey respondents have nothing to lose if their forecasts are wildly inaccurate whereas professional forecasters put their reputation on the line a distinct advantage of the published forecasts is that the oecd provides forecasts for 24 countries whereas surveys are available for only a few countries of course ex post forecasts could be constructed for the same set of countries while these ex post forecasts could utilize modern econometrics techniques such as autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity arch and time varying parameters they cannot replicate the specialized human capital the judgment or the particular perspective of the times that were used to construct ex ante forecasts davis and kanago 1998 regressed the squared error from ex ante inflation forecasts produced and published by business international on inflation and found no significant relation for most countries this result makes it less tempting to dismiss the time series evidence of ex post inflation forecasts we extend the results of davis and kanago 1998 by computing the same regression but using squared errors from ex ante forecasts made by the oecd and published in economic outlook the 24 countries in the oecd data include canada iceland luxembourg new zealand the united states and turkey that are not included in the business international data for some countries the oecd data includes a few more years than the business international data the results from the oecd and business international data are broadly similar few countries show a significant relation between inflation and uncertainty we further test the robustness of these results by using relative uncertainty as the dependent variable

the euro and inflation uncertainty in the european monetary union in this paper we investigate empirically the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty in twelve emu countries we estimate a time varying parameter model with a garch specification for the conditional volatility of inflation in order to distinguish between short run structural and impulse and steady state uncertainty we then introduce a dummy variable to model the policy regime shift which occurred in 1999 with the introduction of the euro and its effects on the links between inflation and inflation uncertainty we find that steady state inflation has generally remained stable with the important exception of germany where the trend has become positive steady state inflation uncertainty and inflation persistence have both increased and the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty has broken down in many countries these findings cast doubt on the optimistic view taken by the ecb concerning its success in controlling inflation and suggest the need for improvements in its analytical framework

monetary co operation and economic growth in africa comparative evidence from the cfa zone countries this article compares economic growth performance of ten african countries all members of the cfa monetary zone with that of 23 non zone sub saharan african ssa countries our descriptive results suggest that overall african economies have experienced similar growth trends which are higher in the 1970s than the 1980s however contrary to previous studies disaggregated comparison of the cfa with the ssa indicate that no significant growth differences exist between these economies moreover our empirical findings suggest that monetary expansion and capital formation have positive impacts on output growth whereas inflation and government spending show negative effects in sum although participating in a monetary union has not necessarily resulted in faster output growth it has enabled the cfa countries to better control price fluctuations and monetary expansion

tax evasion and labor markets abstract concern with revenue losses inequities and inefficiency that may result from tax evasion has produced a number of formal analyses of taxpayer dishonesty most of this work has concentrated on the behavior of individual evaders and has ignored the interaction between evasion and labor market equilibrium to remedy this our analysis uses a model with two labor markets which differ in the potential for evasion to examine how changes in various tax parameters affect evasion and labor market equilibrium we also simulate the effect of switching from a proportional to a progressive tax system in order to evaluate the well known claim that progressivity encourages evasion

the relationship between the rate of inflation and its unpredictability in high inflation latin american countries pourgerami and maskus pm 1987 find three difficulties in our analysis of the relationship between the rate of inflation p and its unpredictability pf in latin american countries the first of these is a point very well taken namely that the positive relationship we hypothesized might well be offset by a negative one arising because higher rates of inflation could be expected to induce the relevant economic agents to invest more in generating the relevant information in utilizing it efficiently and in developing the instruments capable of hedging against inflation however since any such adjustments would be institutional in nature and take time to be carried out it is obvious that this consideratipn would not be relevant for short run analysis involving year to year or especially quarter to quarter changes in inflation rates as in our analysis the other difficulties namely that quarterly observations are more relevant than annual ones in testing such relationships and that rational expectations re models of the type employed by pm are preferable to adaptive expectations models of the type we used are criticisms more relevant to the short run relation between inflation and its predictability but as we shall presently demonstrate are not persuasive nevertheless since the results presented by pm as they have noted show the relationship between pi and p to be considerably weaker than was indicated in earlier results including our own the substantial difference in results deserves explanation since their time coverage frequent of adjustment of expectations model of esprct ltions and to some extent countr coverage were all different than ours it is not possible to learn from their results the reason for the difference by employing the same time and country coverage as in pm and also an estimation procedure hildreth lu which corrects for autocorrelation and continuing to use a modified version of our adaptive expectations model mae but varying the duration of the periods the results presented in table 1 shed light on the source of the difference as can be seen the use of quarterly instead of annual data does not have a large effect on the results thereby suggesting that pm s use of quarterly data is not the source of their weaker results indeed note that in six of the seven high inflation countries the slope coefficient is larger and more significant when quarterly data are employed than when annual data are employed the largest differences are between the results obtained from our own mae model estimated with quarterly data and those obtained by pm with their re model with the same data in all seven cases the pm estimate of is significantly lower than our own corresponding estimate which estimate is more reliable even if one were to agree in principle with pm that re models are superior to ae models of price expectations the particular re model employed by pm can hardly be considered acceptable let alone superior to our mae model with their 20 right hand side variables i e four lags of each of five different explanatory variables relative to our four right hand side variables it is not surprising that pm havq been able to increase the explained variation of p correspondingly reduc

royalty reform and illegal reporting of harvest volumes under alternative penalty schemes we study royalty reform in a timber concessions framework illegal logging in the form of underreporting of harvesting is modeled harvesters can be either risk neutral or risk averse detection of illegal logging by the government is imperfect and costly we focus on the government s policy problem solving first for socially optimal royalty and auditing levels and then examining a revenue neutral reform toward this benchmark we find that higher royalty progression will always decrease actual harvest volume regardless of risk preferences for the harvester but the effect of a reform on reported harvest volume is sensitive to the penalty scheme imposed by the government if the fine is levied on evaded royalty payments then higher royalty progression may increase reported harvest volume but when the fine is levied on undeclared harvest volume the reverse happens higher royalty regression increases actual harvest volume under both penalty schemes but it may decrease reported harvest volume higher regression will increase undeclared harvest volume when the fine is levied on evaded royalty payments

the impact of intraday markets on the market value of flexibility decomposing effects on profile and the imbalance costs abstract an increasing share of variable renewable energy sources vres basically affects the electricity price formation in two ways 1 the so called merit order effect tends to lower the base price level and challenges conventional plants to remain profitable 2 due to the variable nature of renewable energy infeed the short term demand for flexibility increases and changes the volatility of electricity prices the more variable prices offer opportunities for controllable electricity producers ceps who provide up and down ramping flexibility to increase their revenues in contrast the vres with high degrees of simultaneity tend to pay for this flexibility in the electricity spot market to reduce their imbalance exposure the intraday market idm for electricity has gained importance for the market value of different technologies lately and continues to expand due to the increasing efforts to balance within day deviation from day ahead schedules this article presents a combination and extension of two existing models to capture the peculiarities of the intraday price formation and to analyze the impact of the idm on the market value of vres and ceps doing so the paper suggests an adjustment of the classical market value factor metric and to go beyond classical day ahead market dam information the article shows that market value factors mvfs can be stabilized if the idm delivers market based price signals for the costs of flexibility that are sufficient to activate flexibilities prior to the usually more expensive imbalance mechanism ibm yet the mvfs from single vre technologies will worsen if their market share is high enough to outweigh forecast errors from other technologies and if they become a permanent price maker in the idm and the ibm

a note on progression penalty schemes and tax evasion abstract this note deals with the question of whether shifting the tax base towards more progression will stimulate or discourage tax evasion when the tax base is shifted so that either the expected tax revenues of government or the expected utility of taxpayer will remain unchanged the answer turns out to depend sensitively on the nature of penalty schemes if caught in tax evasion if the penalty rate is charged on the undeclared income tax evasion will increase while if the penalty rate is charged on the evaded tax tax evasion will decrease when the tax base is shifted towards progression

short run electricity load forecasting with combinations of stationary wavelet transforms short term forecasting of electricity load is an essential issue for the management of power systems and for energy trading specific modeling approaches are needed given the strong seasonality and volatility in load data in this paper we investigate the benefit of combining stationary wavelet transforms to produce one day ahead forecasts of half hourly electric load in france first we assess the advantage of decomposing the aggregate load into several subseries with a wavelet transform each component is predicted separately and aggregated to get the final forecast one innovation of this paper is to propose several approaches to deal with the boundary problem which is particularly detrimental in electricity load forecasting second we examine the benefit of combining forecasts over individual models an extensive out of sample evaluation shows that a careful treatment of the border effect is required in the multiresolution analysis combinations including the wavelet predictions provide the most accurate forecasts this result is valid with several assumptions about the forecast error in temperature and for different types of hours peak normal off peak different days of the week and various forecasting periods

trading behaviour on the continuous intraday market elbas intraday markets for electricity allow for trading of energy until shortly before the period of delivery this offers market participants a possibility to reduce their expected imbalances and to of

tax evasion tax progression and efficiency wages abstract more progressive taxes raise employment in imperfect labour markets however this prediction is not robust for example any employment effect vanishes in a constant profit efficiency wage economy it is demonstrated that tax evasion opportunities can re establish positive employment effects of higher tax progression

inflation and its unpredictability theory and empirical evidence the effect of inflation on its unpredictability is theoretically ambiguous arthur m okun 1971 and milton friedman 1977 suggest that the effect is positive however a negative effect may exist if higher inflation induces the relevant economic agents to invest more in generating accurate predictions this paper provides a theoretical model to analyze these opposing arguments and specifies the conditions under which a positive effect exists new survey data regarding inflationary expectations in israel are used to empirically examine the model the data which allow single hypothesis testing of the relationship reveal a positive effect only in periods of high inflation indicating a possible threshold effect copyright 1993 by ohio state university press

contract durations in the electricity market causal impact of 15 min trading on the epex spot market abstract the european power exchange epex introduced two new products in 2011 and 2014 which reduce the delivery duration of electricity from 1 h to 15 min intervals these changes to the market design aim to better reflect the intermittent power generation from renewable energy sources however little is known about trading in shorter intervals and its impact on the existing market as a remedy our evaluation first shows that the market has quickly adopted the new 15 min contracts second we estimate a bayesian structural time series which measures a causal decrease of electricity prices depending on the model specification our results indicate that the reduction can be as high as 28 for existing hourly contracts subsequent to the introduction of 15 min trading third the use of 15 min contracts coincides with intermittent power generation as it incentivizes renewable energy providers to offer additional electricity altogether our findings suggest that 15 min trading is used to balance the intra hour volatility of renewable energy sources consequently this presents a blueprint for policy makers who can attain similar price reductions and larger feed ins from renewable energy sources without direct costs in all countries with high shares of renewable energy sources

short term electricity trading for system balancing an empirical analysis of the role of intraday trading in balancing germany s electricity system abstract previous studies have noted that unexpectedly germany s dramatic expansion of wind and solar energy coincided with a reduction of short term balancing reserves this observation has been dubbed the german balancing paradox this paper provides further and updated evidence since 2011 wind and solar energy have nearly doubled while both reserve requirements and reserve use have declined by 50 the paper quantitatively explores one reason for reduced balancing needs increased and improved short term wholesale electricity trading on the intraday market trading is now commonly done around the clock and based on quarter hour rather than full hour contracts the shift to quarter hourly products alone explains a decrease in balancing energy by 17 there is also strong evidence that market parties respond efficiently to imbalance charges suggesting that incentive based approaches to electricity balancing work

inflation and inflation volatility in thailand abstractquarterly data for thailand are used in this article for the period 1965q3 2013q4 to investigate both the relationship between inflation and inflation volatility and the impact of inflation volatility on economic growth inflation volatility is estimated by deploying the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic garch technique a granger causality test is then conducted to examine the causality between inflation and inflation volatility the empirical results obtained are consistent with a number of theoretical propositions first the results are consistent with the friedman ball proposition which states that a rise in inflation raises inflation volatility second there is evidence supporting the holland proposition that inflation volatility lowers the rate of inflation this is consistent with the view that central banks attempt to stabilize inflation with the rise in inflation volatility third empirical results obtained by asymmetric garch models suggest that inflation shoc

the german paradox in the balancing power markets abstract this paper provides answers to questions raised by hirth and ziegenhagen 1 regarding the german paradox in the balancing power markets we show that in spite of the increasing energy production from variable renewable energy sources there is no need for a higher demand of balancing power in germany because adaptations in the energy market design were undertaken and grid control cooperations led to immense efficiency savings additionally we investigate the price developments in the german secondary balancing power market we find evidence that the suppliers coordinate on a price level which is far above the competitive level and that they orientate their power bids towards previous auction prices

balancing power and variable renewables three links abstract balancing power is used to quickly restore the supply demand balance in power systems the need for this tends to be increased by the use of variable renewable energy sources vre such as wind and solar power this paper reviews three channels through which vre and balancing systems interact the impact of vre forecast errors on balancing reserve requirements the supply of balancing services by vre generators and the incentives to improve forecasting provided by imbalance charges the paper reviews the literature provides stylized facts from german market data and suggests policy options surprisingly while german wind and solar capacity has tripled since 2008 balancing reserves have been reduced by 15 and costs by 50

a review of balancing costs in italy before and after res introduction abstract the massive introduction of res in electricity markets is recognized to have induced a merit order effect on wholesale prices while day ahead prices are likely to decline as res e production increases the effects on balancing market sessions are more ambiguous taking into account the northern italian zone characterized by a high solar pv and hydro penetration we provide empirical evidence that balancing quantities decreased while costs increased between two samples associated with low 2006 08 and high 2013 15 res levels we estimate balancing costs for different technologies and compare their dynamics across specific hours we find evidence of increasing balancing prices in particular market conditions that we interpret as a signal of strategic use of real time sessions by conventional producers prone to the merit order effect in the day ahead market we compare our results to those obtained in the german market where on the contrary balancing costs have decreased and postulate that the different market designs may explain these results our findings suggest that the italian policy makers should carefully monitor all trading sessions especially those close to real time to avoid the exercise of market power by few operators allowed to guarantee system security and additionally to promptly adopt a capacity market

taxation and labour supply with risky activities consider the following three phenomena a in recent years dramatic shifts in the types of contract between london cabbies and the taxi owners have been observed b if one tries to hire a housepainter in the uk one is often quoted two rates one for official work during regular hours and for unofficial weekend and evening work c in two unrelated discussions with economics professors about the textbook model of taxation and labour supply each revealed to me that marginal hours released from his regular employment were spent not in the form of leisure but in participating in stock market speculation

inflation uncertainty and labour market conditions in the us recent inflation dynamics in the united states us questioned the role of driving forces of inflation in the long run although the us recorded one of the longest economic recovery periods and the

relative consumption and tax evasion abstract relative consumption effects or status concerns that feature jealousy in the sense of dupor and liu 2003 boost consumption expenditure if consumption is financed by labour income such status considerations increase labour supply and hence the tax base a higher taxable income in turn can make tax evasion more attractive we show for various specifications of preferences that the tax base effect generally dominates consequently relative consumption effects tend to reduce tax evasion this is true irrespective of whether tax parameters are exogenous guarantee a balanced budget or are set optimally

econometric analysis of 15 minute intraday electricity prices abstract the trading activity in the german intraday electricity market has increased significantly over the last years this is partially due to an increasing share of renewable energy wind and photovoltaic which requires power generators to balance out the forecasting errors in their production we investigate the bidding behaviour in the intraday market by looking at both last prices and continuous bidding in the context of a reduced form econometric analysis a unique data set of 15 minute intraday prices and intraday updated forecasts of wind and photovoltaic has been employed price bids are explained by prior information on renewables forecasts and demand supply market specific exogenous variables we show that intraday prices adjust asymmetrically to both forecasting errors in renewables and to the volume of trades dependent on the threshold variable demand quote which reflects the expected demand covered by the planned traditional capacity in the day ahead market the location of the threshold can be used by market participants to adjust their bids accordingly given the latest updates in the wind and photovoltaic forecasting errors and the forecasts of the control area balances

price instability and inflation the latin american case abstract this paper provides empirical evidence substantiating the existence of an over time relationship between inflation and price variability for 23 latin american countries by employing a novel measure of price instability based on price expectations

effort taxation and unemployment abstract the importance of the design of the income tax system for the incentive to supply effort is considered in a situation where firms set wages a tax reform raising marginal taxes at all income levels and increasing decreasing average taxes at high low income levels may lead to higher wages lower employment and higher unemployment

wage setting and the tax system theory and evidence for the united kingdom abstract this paper analyses the effects of a non linear tax system on wage bargaining the main conclusions are an increase in the marginal income or payroll tax rate reduces the pre tax wage in the isoelastic case an increase in the average tax rate increases the pre tax wage by more than the tax increase and a measure of the progressivity of the tax system residual income progression is a sufficient measure of the effect of the tax system on wage pressure empirical evidence is presented to support these propositions and the predictions of the model regarding the effect of recent changes to the u k tax system on the distribution of earnings discussed

tax evasion under differential taxation the economics of income source misreporting abstract if different income sources are subject to different rates of taxation a taxpayer may find it worthwhile to evade taxes by declaring part of his higher taxed income as stemming from a lower taxed source this paper inquires into the determinants of income source misreporting focusing on the relationships between misreporting and taxation under alternative penalty schemes allowing the taxpayer the choice between source misreporting and pure underreporting the paper examines also the relative amount of tax escaping the tax collector through the alternative forms of evasion and determines the conditions under which one will be preferred to the other

the effects of inflation on the predictability of price changes in latin america some estimates and policy implications abstract this paper argues that the relationship between price variability and inflation in high inflation countries should be estimated on a frequent basis and that rational expectations are the appropriate formulation for predicting inflation analysis of seven latin american countries taking these factors into account suggests that higher inflation contributes to the difficulty of predicting price changes the impact is more moderate than that found in previous studies however indicating that less concern may be warranted about the possible stagflationary effects of expansionary policies