a short run solution to the power crisis of pakistan abstract pakistan is in a deep power crisis since 2008 which the government is trying to control by adding new generation capacity this strategy however will not be helpful in the short run the only way the power crisis can be controlled or mitigated in the short run is to efficiently utilize the available resources government lacks such a strategy at this point the paper provides such a strategy by setting up a power sector model with multiple modules of generation transmission and distribution the model provides an efficient way of utilizing the available resources and can be used to perform simulations at different stages of the supply chain the results of model show that if the given resources are utilized efficiently the power generation increases by 3222 gwh or 5 percent of the current output and the revenue increases by 945 million or 12 percent the extra generated power decrease the cost of power production by 0 52 kwh cents and reduces the power load shedding for 2 3 h these outcomes can significantly relieve the sector and the people of pakistan the results of the model have important policy implications on working of the sector and circular debt reduction

hicks s thread out of the equilibrium labyrinth the work of john hicks is an unending source of inspiration for many economists and an unsolved dilemma for historians of economic thought these pages highlight the fact that hicks peculiar perspective on the economic agent constitutes the substructure underlying his research path and the common premise to his theories of markets liquidity capital and risk hicks theory of the agent was intended to address the factual role of non measurable risk i e learning management and was primarily concerned with the price and wealth effects that the transaction costs costs of learning and moving entail for learning induced behaviours

flexibility and uncertainty the preserving of flexibility when faced with uncertainty is a neglected aspect of behaviour under risk yet it is an important factor in decisions to hold liquid assets or delay irreversible investment this paper formalizes the notion of flexibility in a sequential decision context and relates its value to the amount of information an agent expects to receive a rudimentary money demand model is developed embodying these ideas and the history of flexibility as an economic concept is traced choices are frequently made between alternatives that imply different degrees of future commitment between a short term investment that leaves future options open for example and a long term one that by its very nature forecloses those options the relative attractiveness of the two depends on their probability distributions of payoffs over time a basic consideration in this choice is the recognition that beliefs about the risks governing these payoffs may change current doubts may be partially resolved in the near future this prospect decreases the attractiveness of the longer term commitment in that one is able to respond less fully to new information and even if it does not directly affect the risks associated with shorter term choices enhances their appeal this paper formalizes the above remarks by establishing connections between the following two partial orderings the first is an ordering based on variability of beliefs one set of beliefs is more variable than another if more final risk is resolved at an intermediate stage the more one expects to learn by an intermediate period relative to what one knows today the more variation one is anticipating in beliefs about the final outcome the second is an ordering of current actions or positions based on flexibility one position is more flexible than another if it leaves available a larger set of future positions at any given level of cost these two orderings are incorporated in a simple sequential decision model to suggest the following behavioural principle the more variable are a decision maker s beliefs the more flexible is the position he will choose this principle potentially applies whenever i there will be opportunities to act after further information is received and ii current actions influence either the attractiveness or availability of different future actions

on electricity consumption and economic growth in china abstract the invention and application of the electric power technology triggered the second industrial revolution in human history which marked the human society entered the age of electricity electricity provides the sustainable power for economic and social development with the rapid development of economy the electricity consumption is also increasing the increase of electricity consumption has further promoted the progress of the industrial economy in order to achieve the goal of improving the level of economic development while reducing energy consumption it is necessary to reveal the relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth this study is an extensive overview of the literature surrounding this topic in this paper we focus on the relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in china we first analyze the general situation of china s electricity consumption and economic development then we explore the relationship between china s electricity consumption and economic growth from three dimensions i e the time dimension the regional dimension and the industrial dimension finally we study the key issues in the research of the relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth including variable selection model construction and results discussion this work suggests that the nature of the nexus in china should and can be explored from a wider perspective by developing a suitable integrated methodological framework

determinants of electricity consumption function in pakistan old wine in a new bottle abstract the objective of the study is to re investigate the multivariate electricity consumption function for pakistan particularly economic growth foreign direct investment and population growth over a 36 year time period i e between 1975 and 2010 the study employed the bounds testing procedure for cointegration which examines the short run and long run estimates dynamic short run causality test is applied to determine the causality direction between electricity consumption and its determinants by using wald f statistics the results reveal that determinants of electricity consumption function are cointegrated and influx of foreign direct investment income and population growth is positively related to electricity consumption in pakistan however the intensity of these determinants is different on electricity consumption if there is 1 increase in income foreign direct investment and population growth electricity consumption increases by 0 973 0 056 and 1 605 respectively this infers that income foreign direct investment and population growth induce an increase in electricity consumption in pakistan dynamic short run causality test indicates that there has been unidirectional causality which is running from population growth to electricity consumption in pakistan

determinants of import demand for non renewable energy petroleum products empirical evidence from nigeria abstract this study estimated determinants of import demand for refined petroleum products in nigeria for the period 1984 2013 it employed the autoregressive distributed lag ardl bounds test cointegration method and analysed both long run and short run determinants of import demand for total and specific petroleum products in the long run aggregate and sectoral incomes are significant determinants of import of refined kerosene further real effective exchange rate reer aggregate income gdp manufacturing sector s income domestic energy production dep and population growth rate pgr are drivers of import of refined motor spirit moreover reer dep and manufacturing sector s income are propellers of import of refined distillate fuel also reer and total output of petroleum products are major drivers of total import of refined petroleum products short run results show that previous period gdp pgr and manufacturing and service sectors incomes are determinants of import demand for refined kerosene moreover reer gdp previous pgr and manufacturing sector s income exert significant effects on the import of refined motor spirit further significant effects of reer dep previous pgr domestic output of the product and manufacturing and service sectors incomes on the import demand for distillate fuel were found policy implications of the foregoing are articulated in the paper

energy consumption and gdp in developing countries a cointegrated panel analysis in this paper we re investigate the co movement and the causality relationship between energy consumption and gdp in 18 developing countries using data for the period 1975 to 2001 recently developed tests for the panel unit root heterogeneous panel cointegration and panel based error correction models are employed the empirical results provide clear support of a long run cointegration relationship after allowing for the heterogeneous country effect the long run relationship is estimated using a full modified ols the evidence shows that long run and short run causalities run from energy consumption to gdp but not vice versa this result indicates that energy conservation may harm economic growth in developing countries regardless of being transitory or permanent

the relationship between gdp and electricity consumption in 10 asian countries the purpose of this study is to estimate the relationships between gdp and electricity consumption in 10 newly industrializing and developing asian countries using both single data sets and panel data procedures the empirical results from single data set indicate that the causality directions in the 10 asian countries are mixed while there is a uni directional short run causality running from economic growth to electricity consumption and a bi directional long run causality between electricity consumption and economic growth if the panel data procedure is implemented these empirical findings imply that electricity conservation policies through both rationalizing the electricity supply efficiency improvement to avoid the wastage of electricity and managing demand side to reduce the electricity consumption without affecting the end user benefits could be initiated without adverse effect on economic growth the findings on the long run relationship indicate that a sufficiently large supply of electricity can ensure that a higher level of economic growth

energy production system optimization evidence from pakistan abstract the ongoing energy crisis in pakistan and the dependency on thermal electricity generation has contributed to the necessity to optimize energy production system the expensive thermal electricity and inability to recover its cost gives unprecedented rise to the electricity tariffs in this study optimization of the energy production system has been performed using linear programing model as the high cost of electricity generation has been found as the root cause of energy crises the objective function of the proposed model is cost minimization that will also reduce the circular debt specifically it has examined the optimum proportion of energy production from each available source under two different scenarios the first scenario considers that the existing system should be used at its maximum capacity in the second scenario seventy percent utilization of power plants has been examined the second scenario summarizes the optimum mix of energy production which minimizes the cost of electricity production the differential cost that is payable by the government as a subsidy is also compensated similarly it reduces circular debt that is a bottleneck between power generation companies and oil supply companies thus the proposed model has a tendency to minimize the cost of energy production and further reduce circular debt as well as the burden of a subsidy on the government the study specifies the problems confronting pakistan s energy sector and identifies the key elements of a potential policy response to address the country s severe power crisis

energy consumption real income and temporal causality results from a multi country study based on cointegration and error correction modelling techniques abstract unlike previous studies on the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth this paper illustrates how the finding of cointegration i e long term equilibrium relationship between these variables may be used in testing granger causality based on the most recent johansen s multivariate cointegration tests preceded by various unit root or non stationarity tests we test for cointegration between total energy consumption and real income of six asian economies india pakistan malaysia singapore indonesia and the philippines non rejection of cointegration between variables rules out granger non causality and imples at least one way of granger causality either unidirectional or bidirectionial secondly by using a dynamic vector error correction model we then analyse the direction of granger causation and hence the within sample granger exogeneity or endogeneity of each of the variables thirdly the relative strength of the causality is gauged through the dynamic variance decomposition technique by decomposing the total impact of an unanticipated shock to each of the variables beyond the sample period into proportions attributable to shocks in the other variables including its own in the bivariate system results based on these tools of methodology indicate that while all pair wise relationships shared common univariate integrational properties only relationships for three countries india pakistan and indonesia were cointegrated for these countries temporal causality results were mixed with unidirectional causality from energy to income for india exactly the reverse for indonesia and mutual causality for pakistan the vdcs were not inconsistent with these results and provided us with an additional insight as to the relatively more dominant direction of causation in pakistan simple bivariate vector autoregressive models for the three non cointegrated systems did not indicate any direction of causality significantly in either direction

electricity conservation policies and sectorial output in pakistan an empirical analysis abstract government of pakistan has taken several measures in recent years for conserving electricity to reduce its electricity shortfall in this context this study attempts to quantify the impact of different electricity conservation policies on value added of industrial and services sectors in pakistan results indicate that unanticipated shocks to electricity consumption and technical efficiency form a positive relationship while electricity price has a negative relationship with value added in industrial and services sectors in the long run direct electricity conservation policies and policies that aim at increasing electricity prices will have an adverse impact on value added of both the sectors policies that induce improvements in energy efficiency will have a positive impact on the sectorial output in the long run therefore the government should not pursue direct consumption curtailment polices to mitigate the electricity crisis rather steps should be taken to enhance energy efficiency in the economy this can be done by setting targets for reducing energy intensity in both the sectors moreover energy efficiency should be incorporated in the mainstream of energy policy and specific laws should be enacted to establish institutions and develop methods to help in effective conservation and efficient consumption of limited energy resources

energy consumption and gdp causality relationship in g 7 countries and emerging markets abstract the causality relationship between energy consumption and income is a well studied topic in energy economics this paper studies the time series properties of energy consumption and gdp and reexamines the causality relationship between the two series in the top 10 emerging markets excluding china due to lack of data and g 7 countries we discover bi directional causality in argentina causality running from gdp to energy consumption in italy and korea and from energy consumption to gdp in turkey france germany and japan hence energy conservation may harm economic growth in the last four countries

energy consumption economic growth nexus for pakistan taming the untamed abstract a recent survey of energy growth literature has highlighted the potential trade off between bivariate models that suffer from omitted variable bias and the danger of over parameterization of multivariate models in the individual country setting narayan and smyth 2 this is a serious limitation when the interest is in drawing policy implications for specific countries with short times series of available data the maximum entropy bootstrap approach was used to re examine the nature of causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth for pakistan where the available time series data was only from 1971 to 2011 unlike the techniques used in much of the earlier literature this approach does not rely on asymptotic methods and therefore leads to robust inference even in small samples moreover the approach can be applied in the presence of non stationarity of any type and structural breaks without requiring data transformation for to achieving stationarity and is not sensitive to specification errors such as those in lag length selection the empirical findings based on both the bivariate as well as the multivariate frameworks supported the conservation hypothesis implying the existence of a unidirectional causality from economic growth to energy consumption

natural gas consumption and economic growth nexus panel data analysis for gcc countries abstract this study investigates the relationship between natural gas energy consumption and economic growth by including trade openness total labor force and gross fixed capital formation as a major determinants of gdp growth within the multivariate framework model in gulf cooperation council gcc countries a panel gdp model is constructed taking the period of 1980 2012 the result revealed that natural gas energy consumption is cointegrated with gdp growth in the investigated countries in addition based on the panel dynamic ordinary least square dols and the fully modified ordinary least square fmols this study concluded that the natural gas energy consumption affects the gcc s countries gdp growth positively in the long run furthermore the results from the granger causality test revealed bidirectional causality between natural gas energy consumption and gdp growth which confirms the feedback hypothesis from the outcome of this research a number of policy implications were provided for the gcc countries

the impact of electricity supply on economic growth in sri lanka abstract yang energy econ 22 2000 309 has found a bi directional causal relationship between gross domestic product and electricity consumption in taiwan roc this study applies yang s model to examine the impact of electricity supply on economic growth in sri lanka morimoto and hope an extended cba model of hydro projects in sri lanka 2001 have found that the expected increase in economic output due to increased electricity supply parameter eo plays a crucial role in their cost benefit analysis model this study shows that the application of yang s regression analysis is one possible approach to estimate a better range for the parameter eo the estimated figure is that an extra output of rs 88 000 137 000 us1120 1740 for every 1 mw h increase in electricity supply

the dynamics of electricity demand in pakistan a panel cointegration analysis abstract this paper examines the dynamics of electricity demand in pakistan at the aggregate and sectoral levels over the period 1978 2012 panel cointegration test and fully modified ordinary least squares method is employed to determine the long run relationship between electricity consumption real income real price of electricity and domestic price of non energy products the results reveal that electricity demand is more responsive to changes in income than changes in prices at the aggregate and disaggregate levels short run and long run income elasticities are positive and statistically significant supporting the conservation hypothesis it appears from the results that long run price elasticities are negative and significant at the aggregate level and for the agriculture commercial residential sectors and public utilities the short run price elasticities are significant but low in magnitude which implies that changes in electricity price exert minimal effect on the electricity consumption in pakistan the domestic price of non energy products is positive and significant for aggregate sample in the short run the domestic price of non energy products exert significant negative positive impact on electricity demand in the agriculture industrial sectors the results thus provide important information to the agents operating in the electricity market regarding the income and pricing policies and helps in planning the future strategy of electricity demand management

monopoly provision of product quality and warranties an exploration in the theory of multi dimensional screening we address the monopoly problem of designing and pricing a product line of goods distinguished by different quality and warranty levels consumers vary in their evaluations of these attributes so that the problem is one of screening it is sufficiently complex that the local approach commonly used does not work instead we use new techniques for dealing with incentive constraints between nonadjacent consumer types these techniques allow us to characterize optimal allocations that may not be monotonic in particular although the more eager types of buyer do pay higher prices and yield the monopoly higher profit they may receive lower quality or lower warranty coverage we find preference restrictions that restore monotonicity concave risk tolerance implies that warranty coverage increases in type and constant absolute risk aversion implies that quality increases in type

household and industrial electricity demand in europe abstract this paper examines the electricity demand and its determinants in 29 european countries during the liberalization of the electricity market based on panel data for these countries for the years 1995 2015 and using a dynamic partial adjustment model price elasticities are estimated for both residential and industrial electricity demand these elasticities and effects of other variables on electricity consumption are estimated using both gmm generalized method of moments and ml maximum likelihood approaches it is found that the price elasticities are very small especially in the short run while the income elasticities are relatively large especially for households and in the long run

estimating the environment kuznets curve hypothesis evidence from latin america and the caribbean countries this study explores the effect of economic growth gdp renewable energy consumption re and financial development fd on co2 emission co2 in latin america and caribbean countries to achieve this goal a panel co2 model was built over the period 1980 2010 the kao cointegration test results revealed that the variables are cointegrated the fully modified ols fmols results indicated an inverted u shape relationship between co2 and gdp thus confirming the environmental kuznets curve hypothesis furthermore fmols results also revealed that fd can improve environmental quality by its negative long run effect on co2 however re has no long run effect on co2 indicating that the re does not contribute to co2 reduction the vecm granger causality results revealed feedback causality between gdp re fd and co2 in both short and long run additionally granger causality results also revealed that re gdp and fd can be a good solution to reduce environmental damage since they have a causal effect on co2 this study shows the investigated countries should increase their banking loans on green energy energy efficiency and energy saving projects to reduce environmental damage in addition the above recommendation can increase the contribution of renewable energy in reducing environmental damage

the fragility of sunspots and bubbles abstract expectational stability e stability is used to examine the multiplicity of solutions in a range of rational expectations models of interest including muth s inventory model and an overlapping generations model in these model it is found that sunspot and other rational bubble solutions are either e unstable or weakly but not strongly e stable

overcoming electricity crisis in pakistan a review of sustainable electricity options abstract pakistan is facing severe electricity supply shortages causing forced power outages over the last decade ranging from 8 to 12 h a day in urban areas and up to 18 h in rural areas the major causes behind the increasing gap between supply and demand are mainly increases in electricity demand on one hand and depleting energy resources and financial constraints on the other in this context the government has been taking various measures including a partial restructuring of the electricity sector under guidelines from international financing institutes at present the country is therefore not only facing a serious challenge of meeting the electricity demand but is also facing the challenge of ensuring energy security in the context of globally important climate change issues the role of policy makers at this stage is crucial for not only assessing and reviewing the current strategies to minimize the electricity supply and demand gap but also the need to develop future strategies ensuring affordable electricity with efficient generation transmission and distribution towards sustainable development in the country this paper provides a review of the current energy situation discussion on policy drivers and plans analysis of the issues of the power sector as well as recommendations for narrowing the electricity supply demand gap towards sustainable electricity for the country

electricity consumption employment and real income in australia evidence from multivariate granger causality tests this paper examines the relationship between electricity consumption employment and real income in australia within a cointegration and causality framework we find that electricity consumption employment and real income are cointegrated and that in the long run employment and real income granger cause electricity consumption while in the short run there is weak unidirectional granger causality running from income to electricity consumption and from income to employment

an overview of energy status and development in pakistan abstract energy is the basic necessity for life and a key factor to excel a country s economy pakistan despite being richly blessed with natural energy resources is dependent on foreign sources and is currently facing severe energy deficiency at the time of its independence in 1947 pakistan inherited 60 mw of power the energy sector had made some progress in the beginning but unfortunately the growth in positive curve couldn t last long the dilemma of the ever increasing gap between demand and supply has rendered pakistan an energy deficient country where most the people have none or limited access to electricity this paper gives an overview of the energy status of pakistan in this paper i have discussed a major aspects of energy sector of pakistan its establishment history and accomplishments b various institutions for energy generation and distribution c total installed and generation capacity d current energy reserves in the country such as coal oil natural gas nuclear energy as well as the renewable energy resources which include wind energy biogas hydel energy geothermal energy solar energy tidal and wave energy e current energy crisis in the power sector discussing the key issues leading to the origin causes and consequences of the problem the paper also presents f possible solutions to overcome this crisis which is becoming hazardous for the country s economy the various government semi government and private organizations and their efforts to resolve the situation of energy deficit and g renewable energy can provide an alternative form of energy why and how it can provide better replacement of other forms of energy barriers that halt progress in this area and various renewable energy projects have also been illustrated the goals principles and impacts of the national power policy 2013 is also mentioned in this paper

causality relationship between electricity consumption and gdp in bangladesh in this paper we examine the causal relationship between the per capita electricity consumption and the per capita gdp for bangladesh using cointegration and vector error correction model our results show that there is unidirectional causality from per capita gdp to per capita electricity consumption however the per capita electricity consumption does not cause per capita gdp in case of bangladesh the finding has significant implications from the point of view of energy conservation emission reduction and economic development

the impact of unconditional cash transfer on fuel choices among ultra poor in pakistan quasi experimental evidence from the benazir income support program abstract we analyze the impact of the unconditional cash transfer program namely the benazir income support program bisp on fuel choices among ultra poor in pakistan using two rounds of household level data collected in 2011 and 2016 the analysis based on regression discontinuity design shows that bisp cash transfer has a significant impact on interfuel substitution cash transfer increases the use of modern fuels among bisp beneficiaries besides cash transfer also encourages the use of intermediate fuels even in some cases traditional fuels cash transfer also increases the share of fuel expenses in total household expenses therefore the fuel stacking theory provides a better explanation of interfuel substitution than the energy ladder theory of the cash transfer program the provincial analysis shows that interfuel substitution exists due to cash transfer but varies from province to province signifying the role of regional heterogeneities the net impact on fuel choices may depend on the availability of different fuel components from policy perspective the expansion of the cash transfer program as planned by the government would require a reasonable investment in the energy sector to ensure an uninterrupted supply of modern fuels

evolution of transformer health index in the form of mathematical equation energy is a basic necessity in every country the worldwide demand for energy will rise due to the developments of power generation in industrial service and residential sectors a healthy power system is therefore very important to guarantee continuous electricity supply to the end users and this can be achieved through asset management a proper asset management will allow asset managers to conduct quality assessment of conditions and to develop future management strategies of the electrical assets such as transformers the execution of transformer asset management involves an investigation of the transformer s condition by employing transformer s health index thi mathematical equation algorithm or expert judgment has been investigated by many previous studies as one of the technique to determine health index hi some of the established methods of hi determination such as scoring and ranking method tier method matrices and multi feature assessment model have led to the different interpretations of the final condition of a transformer this paper critically examines and explores the previous studies related to transformer health index by using mathematical equation algorithm or expert judgment the concept of hi and its formulation are presented in this study generally there are three parts of hi formulation which are input algorithm for hi and the output of hi the application of hi is discussed in terms of the performance of in service transformer the limitations of the available methods are also discussed and future works to overcome the problems are suggested

chaos in power pakistan s electricity crisis abstract pakistan is facing a severe electricity crisis due to a persistent and widening gap between demand and available system generating capacity the worsening of power shortages has become a major political issue reflecting the hardships for individuals and businesses it threatens to undermine the credibility and legitimacy of government and to further stress the social fabric of the country the power crisis did not emerge suddenly it is the direct result of imprudent and reckless energy policies over the last three decades these policies have impeded the development of cheap and abundant domestic energy sources they have also resulted in very inefficient fuel mix choices compromising energy and economic security pakistan s energy bankruptcy is ultimately due to massive institutional and governance failure this paper analyzes the problems confronting pakistan s electricity sector and identifies the key elements of a potential policy response to address the country s severe power crisis

a review of energy and power planning and policies of pakistan pakistan is facing multiple challenges for harnessing the indigenous energy resources and devise rational energy policies the country is believed to have abundant energy resources however coping substantial electricity supply gap of over 5000 mw this paper analyses country s energy and power planning studies conducted since its independence in 1947 and policies announced so far it is found that water resources management attained more emphasis in early decades of post independence rather than energy concerns the first energy and power planning study was conducted in late 1960s and since then various studies were undertaken to supplement five yearly medium term development plans of government however it is pertinent to mention that formal energy and power policies were only announced from 1994 onwards owing to growing electricity demand and progressing industrialization beside this the focus of these policies is not only varied but were conceived without undertaking integrated energy planning using energy modeling tools e g markal times leap enpep balance message and energyplan it is despite the fact that these tools are successfully applied globally for devising the energy policies and address the complexities of energy system by assisting effective policy formulation this study recommends that integrated energy planning using energy modeling tools will be helpful to develop sustainable energy policies in pakistan to eradicate electricity crises

energy consumption and economic growth in the next 11 countries the bootstrapped autoregressive metric causality approach abstract departing from previous literature using bootstrapped autoregressive metric causality approach which is more robust against non stationarity and break problems than lag augmented tests this study analyzes causal relation between economic growth and energy consumption in the next 11 countries estimating a trivariate model consisting of gdp per capita energy consumption per capita and gross capital formation it was found that the neutrality hypothesis is valid for all of the countries except for turkey these findings imply that energy conservation oriented policies should be implemented in bangladesh egypt indonesia iran korea mexico pakistan and philippines in the case of turkey a unidirectional causal nexus was found from energy consumption to economic growth since the growth hypothesis is valid energy conservation policy poses an obstacle for economic growth in turkey

electricity consumption and economic growth a time series experience for 17 african countries abstract while the availability of electricity by itself is not a panacea for the economic and social problems facing africa the supply of electricity is nevertheless believed to be a necessary requirement for africa s economic and social development this paper tests the long run and causal relationship between electricity consumption per capita and real gross domestic product gdp per capita for 17 african countries for the period 1971 2001 using a newly developed cointegration test proposed by pesaran et al 2001 and using a modified version of the granger causality test due to toda and yamamoto 1995 the advantage of using these two approaches is that they both avoid the pre testing bias associated with conventional unit root and cointegration tests the empirical evidence shows that there was a long run relationship between electricity consumption per capita and real gdp per capita for only 9 countries and granger causality for only 12 countries for 6 countries there was a positive uni directional causality running from real gdp per capita to electricity consumption per capita an opposite causality for 3 countries and bi directional causality for the remaining 3 countries the result should however be interpreted with care as electricity consumption accounts for less than 4 of total energy consumption in africa and only grid supplied electricity is taken into account

electricity consumption and economic growth in china abstract this paper applies the error correction model to examine the causal relationship between electricity consumption and real gdp for china during 1971 2000 our estimation results indicate that real gdp and electricity consumption for china are cointegrated and there is unidirectional granger causality running from electricity consumption to real gdp but not vice versa in order to overcome the constraints on electricity consumption the chinese government has to speed up the nation wide interconnection of power networks to upgrade urban and rural distribution grids and to accelerate rural electrification

a note on the electricity growth nexus in lao pdr abstract this paper investigates the relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in laos by applying the ardl bounds testing approach to cointegration and granger causality tests our results confirm the existence of a long run relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in addition we found unidirectional causality running from economic growth to electricity consumption in the long run supporting the conservation hypothesis

energy security and renewable energy policy analysis of pakistan abstract sustainable energy supply is an important factor for continued economic growth of any society pakistan is among those developing countries which are facing severe shortages of energy now a days the current and past governments in the country have designed various energy policies to fulfill energy demands but could not fill the demand supply gap there has been a shortage of about 5000 mw of electrical supply during summer 2016 a policy for development of renewable energy was framed in 2006 which was aimed to supply sustainable energy to all consumers including those households which have not been supplied electricity and natural gas in rural and far flung areas the policy was extended for implementation in 2011 and is still in use the basis of this policy rests on energy security and self sufficiency social equity and economic benefits this study aims at analyzing renewable energy policy of pakistan and examining and finding the ways to secure energy supplies in future using leap four scenarios business as usual green pakistan nuclear and optimization have been developed to assess the validity of the energy plans the study concludes that green pakistan scenario employing renewable energy technologies having minimum operation and externality costs is the most suitable option in future

an institutional framework for the development of sustainable and competitive power market in pakistan abstract pakistan is continuously striving for sustainable and competitive power market under the comprehensive power sector reform program pakistan shifted its power market from monopoly model to single buyer model by unbundling water and power development authority wapda and establishing national transmission and dispatch company ntdc current severe power situation in the country is triggering the government of pakistan gop to accelerate the implementation of intended reform program and to readily undertake next planned transformation i e from single buyer model to wholesale market model this research endeavors the future dynamics of power market after the structural spin off by pre assessment of upcoming wholesale power market market power of both public and private electricity generators has been computed using 8 largest firm concentration ratio herfindahl hirschman index hhi and residual supply index rsi the findings suggest that future power market will function with non existence of market power except in the periods of peak electricity demand and maximum hydro generation furthermore insufficient installed capacities and underutilization of public thermal units may enable some players to exercise market power for sustainable and competitive power market an empirically supported framework has been proposed based on the analysis the framework proposes utilization of huge available renewable energy potential for future which will protect the whole infrastructure from market power it recommends respective roles and responsibilities for the smooth transition among market models the framework will be supportive in terms of successful and smooth transition from single buyer model to wholesale market model and potential of wind solar biogas to be properly explored and utilized to reduce energy gap

the theory of warranty contracts abstract this paper surveys theories of the existence and design of warranty contracts insurance signalling and incentive motives are used to explain the existence of warranties the incorporation of imperfections that prevent warranties from serving their basic purposes in a first best way describes actual warranty practices

life cycle sustainability assessment of electricity generation in pakistan policy regime for a sustainable energy mix abstract electricity crisis has become a key issue in pakistan mainly due to a tenacious and spreading gap between demand and supply moreover the current production is causing severe environmental and energy security issues due to reliance on thermal sources stakeholders are hindered to address these issues due to a significant knowledge gap causing discrepancies in power policies a comprehensive approach over the sustainability dimensions is missing due to non adoption of life cycle thinking this study adopts an integrated approach of life cycle sustainability assessment of the electricity sector in pakistan for proposing policy guidelines and implementation framework to optimize the future energy mixes in total 20 sustainability indicators have been assessed covering life cycle of seven electricity generation sources currently in use these sources have been ranked by equally weighting the sustainability dimensions and respective indicators hydropower is found as the most sustainable option having lowest environmental and economic impacts while due to worst economic and social impacts oil is found to be the least sustainable option for the country while establishing tradeoffs between different electricity generation sources this study presents an unbiased view and highlights the worth of life cycle approach in sustainability assessment for improving the energy policies

product warranty management iii a review of mathematical models a variety of mathematical models have been developed to study different aspects of warranty in this paper we carry out a comprehensive review of these models by classifying them into three categories based on consumer manufacturer and public policy decision maker perspectives

disaggregated industrial energy consumption and gdp the case of shanghai 1952 1999 abstract this paper investigates the causal relationship between various kinds of industrial energy consumption and gdp in shanghai for the period 1952 1999 using a modified version of the granger 1969 causality test proposed by toda and yamamoto j econ 66 1995 225 the empirical evidence from disaggregated energy series seems to suggest that there was a uni directional granger causality running from coal coke electricity and total energy consumption to real gdp but no granger causality running in any direction between oil consumption and real gdp

estimation of electricity demand function for algeria revisit of time series analysis abstract this paper aims to empirically re examine whether economic growth has effect on electricity consumption for algerian economy we have incorporated urbanization and trade openness in electricity demand function as additional determinants of electricity consumption for the period of 1971 2012 for empirical purpose we have applied the recently developed combined cointegration test proposed by bayer and hanck 2013 and bounds testing approach to cointegration by pesaran et al 2001 for establishing the cointegration between the variables by accommodating structural breaks the results expose that income growth leads to higher electricity demand along with urbanization being another major contributing factor of rising electricity demand in contrast trade openness leads to reduce electricity demand the causal association between the variables is further examined with the application of innovation accounting approach of vector autoregressive var the empirical evidence indicates the presence of the neutral effect between income growth and electricity use urbanization causes electricity use and electricity use causes urbanization in granger sense

a multivariate cointegration analysis of the role of energy in the us macroeconomy abstract this paper extends my previous analysis of the causal relationship of gdp and energy use in the usa in the post war period a majority of the relevant variables are integrated justifying a cointegration analysis the results show that cointegration does occur and that energy input cannot be excluded from the cointegration space the results are plausible in terms of macroeconomic dynamics the results are similar to my previous granger causality results and contradict claims in the literature based on bivariate models that there is no cointegration between energy and output

cointegration and causality between electricity consumption and gdp empirical evidence from malawi abstract the granger causality gc and error correction ecm techniques were applied on 1970 1999 data for malawi to examine cointegration and causality between electricity consumption kwh and respectively overall gdp agricultural gdp agdp and non agricultural gdp ngdp cointegration was established between kwh and respectively gdp and ngdp but not with agdp the gc results detect bi directional causality between kwh and gdp suggesting that kwh and gdp are jointly determined but one way causality running from ngdp to kwh the ecm results detect causality running one way from gdp also from ngdp to kwh suggesting that a permanent rise in gdp may cause a permanent growth in electricity consumption

the causal relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in the asean countries abstract this paper investigates the causal relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth among the association of south east asian nations asean 4 members namely indonesia malaysia singapore and thailand using modern time series techniques for the period 1971 2002 the results indicate that there is a bi directional causality between electricity consumption and economic growth in malaysia and singapore this means that an increase in electricity consumption directly affects economic growth and that economic growth also stimulates further electricity consumption in the two countries however uni directional causality runs from economic growth to electricity consumption in indonesia and thailand without any feedback effect thus electricity conservation policies can be initiated without deteriorating economic side effects in the two countries

electricity consumption and economic growth evidence from korea abstract this paper investigates the short and long run causality issues between electricity consumption and economic growth in korea by using the co integration and error correction models it employs annual data covering the period 1970 2002 the overall results show that there exists bi directional causality between electricity consumption and economic growth this means that an increase in electricity consumption directly affects economic growth and that economic growth also stimulates further electricity consumption

quality uncertainty and guarantee this paper presents a monopoly model with product quality uncertainty in which optional quality guarantee is used to effectively segment the monopolist s potential market and price discriminate among consumers having different incomes the optional guarantee pricing is seen to dominate pure monopoly pricing either with tied in guarantee or no guarantee in terms of maximum expected profits in the optional guarantee equilibrium the monopolist captures a larger part of his potential market by charging a lower price for an unguaranteed product and a higher price for a guaranteed product than does either of the pure monopoly solutions

electricity consumption and metropolitan economic performance in guangzhou 1950 2013 abstract this study analyzes the relationship between electricity consumption and metropolitan economic growth for guangzhou china using 64 years of annual frequency data the capital stock is used as a control variable because of its role in mediating the relationship between energy utilization and economic output empirical results indicate unidirectional granger causality from electricity consumption to metropolitan economic performance in the short run this is consistent with the argument that dependable electricity infrastructure and service can play a vital role in facilitating economic growth implications for conservation efforts and regional development are discussed

defects in disneyland quality control as a two part tariff this paper shows that firms endowed with monopoly power can utilize an optional service contract form of guarantee as an instrument for effecting a surplus extracting two part tariff the monopolist finds it optimal to produce guarantee and replace defective units even if a zero defect rate could be achieved at no additional production cost it is also shown that the price per unit is greater than the effective marginal cost it may even be higher than the pure monopoly price moreover the monopolist is unable to extract all of the consumers surplus thus that optional service contract policy can provide an effective yet defensible form of price discrimination as an alternative to possible illegal tie ins quantity discounts and simple two part tariffs a guarantee is a risk sharing insurance contract tailored to the risky or uncertain flow of consumption services from a commodity see heal 1976 guarantees provide for full or partial replacement repair or refund for expected and unexpected short falls in service indeed appelbaum and scheffman 1978 have provided an example in which the refund exceeds the purchase price the guarantee may come into force in a variety of circumstances ranging from specifically named contingencies to general promises of satisfaction guaranteed or your money back guarantees may be offered as a mandatory tie in with purchase or may be optional we refer to the latter as service contracts they may be priced on a per unit basis or offered at a fixed fee invariant of number of units purchased

electricity consumption and economic growth in transition countries a revisit using bootstrap panel granger causality analysis abstract the purpose of this paper is to revisit the granger causal relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth for 15 transition economies for the period 1975 2010 using a bootstrap panel causality approach that allows for both cross sectional dependency and for heterogeneity across countries applying this approach we found a unidirectional causality running from electricity consumption to economic growth only in belarus and bulgaria from economic growth to electricity consumption in the czech republic latvia lithuania and the russian federation bidirectional causality only in ukraine while no granger causality in any direction in albania macedonia moldova poland romania serbia slovak republic and slovenia these results show that there is a limited support for the electricity led growth hypothesis nevertheless these different findings provide important implications for energy strategies and policies for transition countries

examining the bi directional long run relationship between renewable energy consumption and gdp growth abstract the bi directional long run relationship between renewable energy consumption and gdp growth has been investigated in high income upper middle income lower middle income and high income countries to achieve this goal the fully modified ols was utilized the results revealed that 79 of the countries have a positive bi directional long run relationship between renewable energy consumption and gdp growth this represents the feedback hypothesis on the other hand 19 of the countries showed no long run relationship between the variables this represents the neutrality hypothesis besides 2 of the countries showed a one way long run relationship from gdp growth to renewable energy consumption confirming the conservation hypothesis and from renewable energy consumption and gdp growth representing the growth hypothesis despite the mixed results across countries it has been proved that the more persistent and significant the bi directional long run relationship between the variables is the higher the income countries are

electricity consumption and economic growth evidence from turkey abstract this study investigates the causal relationship between electricity consumption and real gdp in turkey during the period of 1950 2000 both of the series were found to be a stationary process around a structural break by the zivot and andrews test thus two different methodologies have been employed to test the granger non causality the dolado lutkepohl test using the vars in levels and the standard granger causality test using the detrended data both tests have yielded a strong evidence for unidirectional causality running from the electricity consumption to the income this implies that the supply of electricity is vitally important to meet the growing electricity consumption hence to sustain the economic growth in turkey

on the electricity shortage price and electricity theft nexus abstract pakistan is facing severe electricity shortfall of its history since 2006 several measures have been implemented in order to mitigate electricity shortage the focus has been on raising the installed capacity of electricity generation and transmission the present policy results in expensive thermal electricity generation mostly using expensive and environmentally hazardous furnace oil and inability of utilities to recover their cost of supply although there is unprecedented rise in electricity tariffs this study concentrates on the electricity demand and traces the relationship between electricity shortfalls tariff rate and electricity theft in the background of recent electricity crisis using the data for the period 1985 2010 we employed the granger causality test through error correction model and out of sample causality through variance decomposition method empirical evidence shows that electricity theft greatly influences electricity shortfalls through lowering investment and inefficient use of electricity the study concludes that electricity crisis cannot be handled without combating rampant electricity theft in the country

product risk sharing by warranties in a monopoly market with risk averse consumers abstract this paper analyzes the implications of three different warranty rules in a monopoly setting with risk averse consumers the necessary condition for the existence of the market is independent of the risk sharing arrangement although the quantity consumed is the highest if the consumer receives no warranty even if the monopolist is constrained to marginal cost pricing the replacement warranty is most efficient from a risk allocation point of view however the situation with no warranty is pareto superior to a money back warranty additionally the producer and the consumers agree on the ranking of the warranty rules

on the limitation of warranty duration this paper analyzes the frequently observed phenomenon that firms offer product warranties that are of much shorter duration than the life expectancy of these products it is shown that competitive equilibria may entail limitation of warranty duration if firms face adverse selection problems with respect to different consumers copyright 1989 by blackwell publishing ltd

assessment of present conventional and non conventional energy scenario of pakistan abstract it has become the universal fact that the energy is one of the key factors for the smooth and faster upgradation of the socio economic activities in any country in pakistan s history of over 60 years the country presently is facing possibly the worst energy crisis that has geared back the socio economic development below the level of critical sustainability and tolerance of the people every walk of life and industrial activities have declined due to long electricity shut down every day since last few years in view to access the current status of available energy resources the present research study has been carried out to review and assess the demography of the country versus energy sectors energy supplies consumptions status of fossil fuel resources oil gas coal conventional non conventional electricity generation and past present future energy demand supply during 2001 2011 the results of this assessment indicate that conventional resources in pakistan are and will not be enough to meet the ever growing energy demand and consequently highlight the importance of the renewable energy sources that are apparently encouraging in the country but have not been developed to any satisfaction priority is imperative to be given for the adequate development of renewable energy sectors in addition to the present energy mix

the long run price sensitivity dynamics of industrial and residential electricity demand the impact of deregulating electricity prices abstract this study examines the demand side of ghana s electricity sector we test two important related hypotheses 1 deregulation of electricity price does not promote energy conservation and 2 demand price relationship is not an inverted u shaped the stock and watson dynamic ols is used to address the so called second order bias the result showed that deregulation of electricity price in ghana has induced behaviours that are more consistent with energy conservation improvements the demand price relationship is an inverted u which suggests that there is a price range that end users can tolerate further price rise and still increase their consumption of electricity however the degree of price tolerability is higher for residential consumers than industrial consumers the simulation results showed that further economic growth is likely to compromise energy conservation but more in the industrial sector than the residential sector on the other hand future crude oil price is likely to deteriorate energy conservation in the initial years after 2016 but this trend is likely to reverse after the year 2020 pricing mechanisms are potent to induce energy conservation but inadequate the results suggest that they should be complemented with other stringent policies such as a mandatory energy reduction policy investment in renewables and personalization of energy efficiency programs

literature survey on the relationships between energy environment and economic growth abstract the aim of this study is to exhibit an exhaustive survey which is related to the great flight of the literature of energy environment growth nexus at the individual and regional scale studies covering the period from 1978 to 2014 the survey takes into consideration the sample country region etc periods covering econometric strategies and conclusions our survey is based on the causality direction among i the energy use variables electricity nuclear renewable and non renewable and output growth ii between economic growth and environment and between the three variables at the same time globally these surveys provide paradoxical and not conclusive results which energy consumption can boost economic growth through the productivity enhancement and it can boost also the environmental damages through the enhancement of pollutant emissions our survey sheds more the lights on the energy environment growth literature by giving an extensive listing 1978 2014 of these causal linkages among the energy use variables environment and economic growth for both individual and collective cases there is a unanimous consensus about the importance of dealing with such dynamic relationship which is seems to be a cornerstone element in setting any ambition strategies energy ecological and economics

the hydroelectricity consumption and economic growth in asian countries evidence using an asymmetric cointegration approach this study examines the four commonly tested hypotheses in hydroelectricity consumption economic growth literature for 12 asian countries our results from a recently developed hidden cointegrati

product warranties and double moral hazard this article explores a model of warranties in which moral hazard problems play a key role the goal is to understand the important characteristics of warranties including their provision of incomplete insurance and the relationship between product quality and coverage we analyze a model in which buyers and sellers take actions that affect a product s performance since these actions are not cooperatively determined an incentives problem arises we characterize the optimal warranty contract and undertake comparative statics to determine the predicted correlation of warranty coverage and product quality

electricity consumption and economic growth in india abstract this paper tries to examine the granger causality between electricity consumption per capita and gross domestic product gdp per capita for india using annual data covering the period 1950 51 to 1996 97 phillips perron tests reveal that both the series after logarithmic transformation are non stationary and individually integrated of order one this study finds the absence of long run equilibrium relationship among the variables but there exists unidirectional granger causality running from economic growth to electricity consumption without any feedback effect so electricity conservation policies can be initiated without deteriorating economic side effects

prospects of pakistan china energy and economic corridor abstract china s seaborne foreign oil supply through the strait of malacca is facing challenges because of territorial disputes pirate attacks and geopolitics the pakistan china energy and economic corridor pceec offers the option of constructing an oil pipeline to bypass the strait of malacca this paper studied the prospects of the pceec in the context of the security of china s foreign oil supply chain we assessed all the existing and proposed oil supply routes from the middle east and africa to china s border in terms of supply timeframes costs energy consumption and ghg emissions we used weight based model to estimate the capex opex and per barrel levelized cost of a proposed oil pipeline in the pceec from economic time energy and environmental perspective our assessment suggested that the construction of an oil pipeline in the pceec would be compatible with the existing routes and offer the shortest time for transporting oil to china s border the pceec would offer numerous prospects for regional energy and economic connectivity for both countries and the region including social economic commercial and geopolitical benefits

endogenous punishments in agency with verifiable ex post information the article studies an adverse selection model in which a contractible imperfect signal on the agent s type is revealed ex post the agent is wealth constrained which implies that the maximum penalty depends on the contracted transaction e g the volume of trade first we show that the qualitative effects of the signal can be unambiguously tied to the nature of the problem e g whether the agent is in a buyer or a seller position second the distortions caused by informational asymmetries may become more severe although more information is now available finally the signal can actually serve to increase the agent s informational rents

electricity use and economic development abstract a study of the relationship between electricity use and economic development in over one hundred countries constituting over 99 of the global economy has been undertaken correlations between electricity consumption capita and gdp capita have been analysed and compared with those between total primary energy supply capita and gdp capita a supporting analysis has correlated the proportion of energy used in the form electricity the e e ratio with gdp capita the general conclusions of this research are that wealthy countries have a stronger correlation between electricity use and wealth creation than do poor countries and that for the global economy as a whole there is a stronger correlation between electricity use and wealth creation than there is between total energy use and wealth the study also shows that in wealthy countries the increase in wealth over time correlates with an increase in the e e ratio the results imply that the energy ratio toe should be replaced by the electricity ratio kwh as a development indicator and more precisely by the e e ratio kwh toe

the relationship between energy consumption energy prices and economic growth time series evidence from asian developing countries this paper estimates the causal relationships between energy consumption and income for india indonesia the philippines and thailand using cointegration and error correction modelling techniques the results indicate that in the short run unidirectional granger causality runs from energy to income for india and indonesia while bidirectional granger causality runs from energy to income for thailand and the philippines in the case of thailand and the philippines energy income and prices are mutually causal the study results do not support the view that energy and income are neutral with respect to each other with the exception of indonesia and india where neutrality is observed in the short run c 2000 elsevier science b v all rights reserved jel classifications c22 q43 q48

the relationship between electricity consumption electricity prices and gdp in pakistan abstract this study analyzes the relationship among electricity consumption its price and real gdp at the aggregate and sectoral level in pakistan using annual data for the period 1960 2008 the study finds the presence of unidirectional causality from real economic activity to electricity consumption in particular growth in output in commercial manufacturing and agricultural sectors tend to increase electricity consumption while in residential sector growth in private expenditures is the cause of rising electricity consumption the study concludes that electricity production and management needs to be better integrated with overall economic planning exercises this is essential to avoid electricity shortfalls and unplanned load shedding

optimal sales contracts with withdrawal rights we introduce ex post participation constraints in the standard sequential screening model this captures the presence of consumer withdrawal rights as for instance mandated by european union regulation of distance sales contracts with such additional constraints the optimal contract is static and unlike with only ex ante participation constraints does not elicit the agent s information sequentially this holds whenever differences in ex ante and ex post outside options are below a positive upper bound welfare effects of mandatory withdrawal rights are ambiguous since it is insufficient in our setting to consider only local incentive constraints we develop a novel technique to identify the relevant global constraints

pakistan s overall energy potential assessment comparison of lng tapi and ipi gas projects abstract pakistan is facing severe energy crisis in spite of the fact that nature has blessed her with huge energy potential short fall of electricity supply in the country is increasing and has been recorded up to 4522 mw in 2010 this deficit reached to 7000 mw in may 2011 a comprehensive review of pakistan s energy sector is presented in this paper energy potential major issues of energy sector and energy import options are discussed issues like poor management combined cycle capacity low hydro power share circular debt and energy security have been covered energy potential assessment includes hydro solar wind coal nuclear hydrogen cells geo thermal ocean resources and bio mass future prediction calculations are based upon country s current and world s average per capita energy consumption current oil and gas reserves of the country contribute to only 5 percent and 48 8 percent of the energy mix and at the current rate will be exhausted by 13 and 16 years respectively the overwhelming dependence of the energy sector on imported fossil fuels may create a situation of energy security threat however dependence upon the energy import options cannot be avoided in order to lessen the severity of energy crisis in near future some of the energy import options are turkmanistan afghanistan pakistan and india tapi iran pakistan and india ipi gas pipelines liquefied natural gas lng from qatar etc on the other hand exploitation of vast renewable potential like hydro solar and wind requires serious attention exploitation of indigenous coal resources would also be a key for solving energy crisis in the long run in summary this paper presents energy potential assessment in context of major issues future predictions and impact of energy import options this in turn provides a big clear and brighter picture of the country s energy sector

energy use and output growth in canada a multivariate cointegration analysis using a neo classical one sector aggregate production technology where capital labor and energy are treated as separate inputs this paper develops a vector error correction vec model to test for the existence and direction of causality between output growth and energy use in canada using the johansen cointegration technique the empirical findings indicate that the long run movements of output labor capital and energy use in canada are related by two cointegrating vectors then using a vec specification the short run dynamics of the variables indicate that granger causality is running in both directions between output growth and energy use hence an important policy implication of the analysis is that energy can be considered as a limiting factor to output growth in canada