forecasting residential electricity consumption in greece using monthly and quarterly data abstract this paper studies electricity consumption household use only in greece we explore the dynamic relationships among several potentially relevant time series variables and develop appropriate models for forecasting it is apparent that personal disposable income temperature and the price of electricity used by the households play an important role in the demand for electricity in this study we use both monthly and quarterly data and find that the performance of quarterly models may not be as good as that of the monthly ones for transfer function model identification we use the linear transfer function ltf method which is more efficient and easier to use than the traditional cross correlation ccf method

grim down south the determinants of unemployment increases in british cities in the 2008 2009 recession lee n grim down south the determinants of unemployment increases in british cities in the 2008 2009 recession regional studies this paper investigates the impact of the 2008 2009 recession on unemployment in the sixty largest cities in great britain the key determinant of changes in unemployment was the skills of the population with highly skilled cities experiencing smaller increases cities with employment in financial services or manufacturing sectors experienced larger increases in unemployment whether a city has a specialized or a diverse economy appears less important than the industries in which the city is specialized the results highlight a problem as the largest unemployment increases were in cities seen as having least potential for future growth

energy consumption and gdp in developing countries a cointegrated panel analysis in this paper we re investigate the co movement and the causality relationship between energy consumption and gdp in 18 developing countries using data for the period 1975 to 2001 recently developed tests for the panel unit root heterogeneous panel cointegration and panel based error correction models are employed the empirical results provide clear support of a long run cointegration relationship after allowing for the heterogeneous country effect the long run relationship is estimated using a full modified ols the evidence shows that long run and short run causalities run from energy consumption to gdp but not vice versa this result indicates that energy conservation may harm economic growth in developing countries regardless of being transitory or permanent

is the energy led growth hypothesis valid new evidence from a sample of 85 countries abstract the energy growth literature contains a large number of discussions on the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth the central debate focuses on whether energy consumption contributes or not to economic growth since it has direct implications for the formulation of strategic policies nevertheless current studies cannot provide a conclusive suggestion due to mixed causality results this inconclusive evidence is potentially attributed to model specifications and the stage of economic development of the countries under investigation hence this study attempts to empirically re investigate the validity of the energy led growth hypothesis using a different model specification and different stages of economic development for 85 selected countries around the globe overall although the causality results are mixed among countries we do find a systematic pattern in particular granger causality models with three and four variables are more likely to support the hypothesis compared to their counterparts that contain only two variables in addition both developed and developing countries are more likely to support the energy led growth hypothesis compared to the less developed or low income countries therefore causality results are very sensitive to the choice of the model specification along with the stages of economic development finally energy conservation policies should only focus on low income countries as these policies may not retard the process of economic growth

women business owners a source of stability during the great recession during the period of the great recession previous research has found that women owned firms were less likely to lay off workers than were firms owned by men given that the individual firm behavio

the causality relationship between energy consumption and gdp in g 11 countries revisited abstract this paper explores whether energy conservation policies can be implemented in countries with the same level of development that is is restraining energy consumption without compromising economic growth feasible in all industrialized countries a new granger non causality testing procedure developed by toda and yamamoto 1995 journal of econometrics 66 225 250 is applied to re investigate the relationship if any between energy consumption and income in 11 major industrialized countries the results clearly do not support the view that energy consumption and income are neutral with respect to each other except in the case of the united kingdom germany and sweden where a neutral relationship is found bi directional causality in the united states and uni directional running from energy consumption to gdp in canada belgium the netherlands and switzerland are found this indicates that energy conservation may hinder economic growth in the latter five countries further the causality relationship appears to be uni directional but reversed for france italy and japan which implies that in these three countries energy conservation may be viable without being detrimental to economic growth

energy consumption real income and temporal causality results from a multi country study based on cointegration and error correction modelling techniques abstract unlike previous studies on the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth this paper illustrates how the finding of cointegration i e long term equilibrium relationship between these variables may be used in testing granger causality based on the most recent johansen s multivariate cointegration tests preceded by various unit root or non stationarity tests we test for cointegration between total energy consumption and real income of six asian economies india pakistan malaysia singapore indonesia and the philippines non rejection of cointegration between variables rules out granger non causality and imples at least one way of granger causality either unidirectional or bidirectionial secondly by using a dynamic vector error correction model we then analyse the direction of granger causation and hence the within sample granger exogeneity or endogeneity of each of the variables thirdly the relative strength of the causality is gauged through the dynamic variance decomposition technique by decomposing the total impact of an unanticipated shock to each of the variables beyond the sample period into proportions attributable to shocks in the other variables including its own in the bivariate system results based on these tools of methodology indicate that while all pair wise relationships shared common univariate integrational properties only relationships for three countries india pakistan and indonesia were cointegrated for these countries temporal causality results were mixed with unidirectional causality from energy to income for india exactly the reverse for indonesia and mutual causality for pakistan the vdcs were not inconsistent with these results and provided us with an additional insight as to the relatively more dominant direction of causation in pakistan simple bivariate vector autoregressive models for the three non cointegrated systems did not indicate any direction of causality significantly in either direction

effects of renewable energy sector development on electricity consumption growth nexus in the european union abstract the aim of this study is to assess the effect of renewable energy sector development on the relationships between electricity consumption and economic growth in the european union countries in the period between 1995 and 2015 a panel vector autoregressive model is used for testing granger causality and estimating impulse response functions the results indicate that the relationships between economic growth and electricity consumption depend on the level of renewable energy sector development the greater the share of the renewable energy sector in the economy is the more noticeable the mutual dependence between the economic growth and renewable electricity consumption is in countries with relatively well developed renewable energy sectors renewable electricity consumption boosts the economy and vice versa in the remaining countries economic growth and electricity consumption are independent empirical findings suggest that policymakers should develop strategies to implement clean energy policy aimed at stimulating the development of the renewable energy sector to support economic growth

energy consumption and gdp causality relationship in g 7 countries and emerging markets abstract the causality relationship between energy consumption and income is a well studied topic in energy economics this paper studies the time series properties of energy consumption and gdp and reexamines the causality relationship between the two series in the top 10 emerging markets excluding china due to lack of data and g 7 countries we discover bi directional causality in argentina causality running from gdp to energy consumption in italy and korea and from energy consumption to gdp in turkey france germany and japan hence energy conservation may harm economic growth in the last four countries

casting a long shadow demand based accounting of canada s greenhouse gas emissions responsibility abstract canada is the only country to have ratified the kyoto protocol and then withdrawn part of the justification for canada s reluctance to commit to greenhouse gas ghg emissions reductions is the country s status as fossil fuel exporter in this paper we use input output analysis and the world input output database wiod to ask whether canada s contribution to global ghg emissions changes when calculated using a demand based shadow emission approach that excludes ghg emissions created in the production of exports like fossil fuels but includes emissions released to produce imports to canada we find that from 1995 to 2005 canada s contribution to global emissions was lower using this demand based ghg accounting approach than a production based approach from 2006 to 2009 however increased imports from ghg intensive trading partners like china meant that canada s demand based shadow emissions were higher than its production based ghg emissions we also introduce a method of calculating sub national ghg shadows using limited data applied to canada this exercise demonstrates that fossil fuel exporting provinces such as alberta and saskatchewan have demand based shadow emissions significantly lower than their production based emissions while populous provinces such as quebec and ontario have demand based emissions that are relatively higher than their production based emissions

an investigation of co integration and causality between energy consumption and economic activity in taiwan applying hsiao a version of the granger causality method this paper examines the causality between energy and gnp and energy and employment by applying recently developed techniques of co integration and hsiao s version of the granger causality to taiwanese data for the 1955 1993 period the phillips perron tests reveal that the series with the exception of gnp are not stationary and therefore differencing is performed to secure stationarity the study finds causality running from gdp to energy consumption without feedback in taiwan it is also found that causality runs from gdp to energy but not vice versa

industrial diversification and city size the case of yugoslavia the theoretical explanation for the industrial diversification city size relationship is studied as an explanation on the basis of variation in factor prices is not adequate attention is paid to

the fuelwood market in greece an empirical approach abstract wood has been since ancient times the basic household heating medium nowadays wood remains the primary energy source in rural areas of developing countries mainly in africa in greece the domestic demand of fuelwood is relied mainly on the fuelwood domestic supply especially during the post war period the domestic supply satisfies adequately the domestic demand eliminating the role of imports the present study surveys the long run relationship between the fuelwood prices of different forest species in order to determine the role of the special market conditions in their price formation in addition the error correction model is estimated in order to survey the direction of the granger causality among the prices of the fuelwood forest species the implementation of the impulse response analysis and the variance decomposition confirmed that coniferous and beech fuelwood producer price may account for the volatility of the oak fuelwood producer price this result may contribute greatly to the conservation of oak forest an important carbon storage forest ecosystem

electricity consumption and economic growth a time series experience for 17 african countries abstract while the availability of electricity by itself is not a panacea for the economic and social problems facing africa the supply of electricity is nevertheless believed to be a necessary requirement for africa s economic and social development this paper tests the long run and causal relationship between electricity consumption per capita and real gross domestic product gdp per capita for 17 african countries for the period 1971 2001 using a newly developed cointegration test proposed by pesaran et al 2001 and using a modified version of the granger causality test due to toda and yamamoto 1995 the advantage of using these two approaches is that they both avoid the pre testing bias associated with conventional unit root and cointegration tests the empirical evidence shows that there was a long run relationship between electricity consumption per capita and real gdp per capita for only 9 countries and granger causality for only 12 countries for 6 countries there was a positive uni directional causality running from real gdp per capita to electricity consumption per capita an opposite causality for 3 countries and bi directional causality for the remaining 3 countries the result should however be interpreted with care as electricity consumption accounts for less than 4 of total energy consumption in africa and only grid supplied electricity is taken into account

the demand for energy in greece assessing the effects of the community support framework 1994 1999 the paper estimates the demand for energy in greece in the tradable and non tradable sectors and for the three main types of energy namely oil electricity and solid fuel using the estimated demand functions forecasts of the demand for energy until the year 2010 are derived by incorporating the system of demand and energy price equations into a fully fledged annual macroeconometric model the model is subsequently used to forecast the demand for energy and the shares of various forms under alternative assumptions about the effects of the community support framework csf it is found that the demand for energy will be significantly affected by the presence of externalities in the implementation of csf that give rise to positive supply side effects and boost growth in the absence of supply side externalities total energy demand rises by 1 4 above the benchmark non csf scenario with growth inducing externalities total demand will increase at year 2010 by 6 0 above baseline

increasing regional disparities in the 1990s the finnish experience kangasharju a and pekkala s 2004 increasing regional disparities in the 1990s the finnish experience reg studies38 255 267 this paper investigates why regional disparities in finland started to grow in the early 1990s after a decades long period of convergence the analysis focuses on per capita gdp and its subcomponents particularly labour productivity jobs and population the results show first that the evolution of labour productivity and the number of jobs account for the regional divergence of per capita gdp second even though interregional migration and fertility tend to have a convergent effect on regional per capita gdp its effect was not strong enough the divergence of productivity and jobs dominated third among divergent factors productivity and jobs primary production contributed the most to the divergence of per capita gdp during the recession of the 1990s and private services during the subsequent recovery one reason for divergence of the primary production sector may

exploring the relationship between energy use and economic growth with bivariate models new evidence from g 7 countries abstract there is a rapidly growing literature on the interaction between energy use and economic development with many analysts drawing policy conclusions on the basis of granger causality tests that involve only an energy and an economic variable this paper attempts to demonstrate empirically that such studies although useful for certain applications may be of limited use for policy purposes after outlining theoretical and methodological issues associated with such approaches i apply bivariate energy economy causality tests for canada france germany italy japan the united kingdom and the united states using aggregate and sectoral data and three different modern econometric methods the results which are often contradictory or economically implausible illustrate explicitly that one should be cautious when drawing policy implications with the aid of bivariate causality tests on small samples i therefore underline the importance of utilizing as large sample sizes as possible and using multivariate models which are closer to economic theory accommodate several mechanisms and causality channels and provide a better representation of real world interactions between energy use and economic growth

the role of globalization in energy consumption a quantile cointegrating regression approach abstract this paper examines the quantile behavior of the relationship between the nuances of globalization and energy consumption while incorporating capital and economic growth in case of top two most globalized countries netherlands and ireland by employing the recently developed quantile autoregressive distributed lag qardl model of cho et al 2015 the model is estimated using quarterly data over the period 1970q1 2015q4 the results indicate that the relationship is quantile dependent which may reveal misleading results in studies using traditional analyses that address the averages the wald test confirms our findings by rejecting the null hypothesis of parameter constancy for both the netherlands and ireland the changes in energy consumption are more responsive to past levels and past changes in globalization than the adjustment provided by the error correction method ecm interestingly the findings indicate that globalization is positively correlated with energy consumption in the long term for the two countries furthermore globalization shares a robust long term relationship with energy consumption energy consumption is strongly related to globalization in the long term however the short term effects of globalization on energy demand are limited for those countries important policy implications are then suggested based on the empirical results

causal relationship between energy consumption and gdp revisited the case of korea 1970 1999 abstract causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth is investigated applying a multivariate model of capital labor energy and gdp usual btu energy aggregate is substituted with a divisia aggregate in an attempt to mitigate aggregation bias to test for granger causality in the presence of cointegration among the variables we employ a vector error correction model rather than a vector autoregressive model empirical results for korea over the period 1970 1999 suggest a long run bidirectional causal relationship between energy and gdp and short run unidirectional causality running from energy to gdp the source of causation in the long run is found to be the error correction terms in both directions

energy and economic growth in the usa a multivariate approach abstract this paper examines the causal relationship between gdp and energy use for the period 1947 90 in the usa the relationship between energy use and economic growth has been examined by both biophysical and neoclassical economists in particular several studies have tested for the presence of a causal relationship in the granger sense between energy use and economic growth however these tests do not allow a direct test of the relative explanatory powers of the neoclassical and biophysical models a multivariate adaptation of the test vector autoregression var does allow such a test a var of gdp energy use capital stock and employment is estimated and granger tests for causal relationships between the variables are carried out although there is no evidence that gross energy use granger causes gdp a measure of final energy use adjusted for changing fuel composition does granger cause gdp

energy consumption and economic growth a causality analysis for greece abstract this paper investigates the causal relationship between aggregated and disaggregated levels of energy consumption and economic growth for greece for the period 1960 2006 through the application of a later development in the methodology of time series proposed by toda and yamamoto 1995 at aggregated levels of energy consumption empirical findings suggest the presence of a uni directional causal relationship running from total energy consumption to real gdp at disaggregated levels empirical evidence suggests that there is a bi directional causal relationship between industrial and residential energy consumption to real gdp but this is not the case for the transport energy consumption with causal relationship being identified in neither direction the importance of these findings lies on their policy implications and their adoption on structural policies affecting energy consumption in greece suggesting that in order to address energy import dependence and environmental concerns without hindering economic growth emphasis should be put on the demand side and energy efficiency improvements

a note on the causal relationship between energy and gdp in taiwan abstract this paper re examines the causality between energy consumption and gdp by using updated taiwan data for the period 1954 1997 as a secondary contribution we investigate the causal relationship between gdp and the aggregate as well as several disaggregate categories of energy consumption including coal oil natural gas and electricity applying granger s technique we find bidirectional causality between total energy consumption and gdp we find further that different directions of cause exist between gdp and various kinds of energy consumption

measuring the effects of economic diversity on growth and stability the role of economic diversity in regional stability and growth is examined contrary to conventional wisdom the empirical literature has been unable to confirm the link between diversity and economic performance traditional notions of diversity tend to be defined narrowly usually emphasizing the distribution of employment across industries these approaches are inadequate because they do not capture elements of inter industrial linkages an alternate approach to conceptualizing diversity based on a regional input output model is described and computed for the 50 states empirical results suggest that diversity within the theoretical construct of input output is associated with higher levels of stability and growth

the relationship between energy and gnp further results this paper reexamines the casuality between gnp and energy consumption by using updated us data for the period 1947 1979 as a secondary contribution we investigate the causal relationship between energy consumption and employment applying sims technique we find no causal relationship between gnp and energy consumption we find further that there is a slight unidirectional flow running from employment to energy consumption economic interpretations of the empirical results are also presented

autoregressive modelling and money income causality detection abstract a step wise procedure based on granger s concept of causality and abaike s final prediction error criterion is suggested as a practical means to identify the order of lags of each variable in a multivariate autoregressive process the model seems useful because it can serve as a reduced form formulation to avoid imposing often spurious or false restrictions of the model it also provides a reasonably powerful test of causality the idea is applied to u s postwar money and income data it is found that between m1 and gnp a bivariate feedback model fits the data best between m2 and gnp a one way causal model from money to income performs better diagnostic checks applied to our model seem to indicate the adequacy of our approach

empirical assessment of the determinants of road energy demand in greece this paper attempts to cast light on the determinants of road energy demand in greece for this purpose we used cointegration techniques and vector autoregression var analysis in order to capture short run and long run dynamics for gasoline and diesel demand respectively from the empirical analysis that covers the period 1978 2003 we find that in the long run gasoline energy demand appears to be price and income inelastic while diesel demand appears to be price inelastic and income elastic we also found that the absence of close substitutes in the road sector denotes the low level of energy switching in greece

the dispersion of us state unemployment rates the role of market and non market equilibrium factors partridge m d and rickman d s 1997 the dispersion of us state unemployment rates the role of market and nonmarket equilibrium factors reg studies 31 593 607 european nations particularly the uk have been observed to have persistent dispersion in regional unemployment rates the dispersion is often hypothesized to be caused by centralized collective bargaining and government policies that limit regional labour market adjustments although the us labour market is considered more exible possessing higher rates of labour mobility and less government mandates there also is persistent dispersion in us state unemployment rates this paper investigates the factors that underlie the persistent dispersion in us state unemployment rates the factors examined include amenities crime education home ownership and residency patterns industry composition and international migration partridge m d et rickman d s 1997 la dispersion des taux de chomage aux etats unis sur le plan des etats l importa

disaggregated industrial energy consumption and gdp the case of shanghai 1952 1999 abstract this paper investigates the causal relationship between various kinds of industrial energy consumption and gdp in shanghai for the period 1952 1999 using a modified version of the granger 1969 causality test proposed by toda and yamamoto j econ 66 1995 225 the empirical evidence from disaggregated energy series seems to suggest that there was a uni directional granger causality running from coal coke electricity and total energy consumption to real gdp but no granger causality running in any direction between oil consumption and real gdp

regional economic instability and industrial diversification in the u s comparative advantage and the division of labor make geographic concentration of production within a nation profitable and cause many cities to be specialized in one or a few main industries specialized cities however suffer greater unemployment risk

a multivariate cointegration analysis of the role of energy in the us macroeconomy abstract this paper extends my previous analysis of the causal relationship of gdp and energy use in the usa in the post war period a majority of the relevant variables are integrated justifying a cointegration analysis the results show that cointegration does occur and that energy input cannot be excluded from the cointegration space the results are plausible in terms of macroeconomic dynamics the results are similar to my previous granger causality results and contradict claims in the literature based on bivariate models that there is no cointegration between energy and output

energy consumption and economic growth the case of oil exporting countries this paper examines the causal relationship between the per capita energy consumption and the per capita gdp in a panel of 11 selected oil exporting countries by using panel unit root tests and panel cointegration analysis the results show a unidirectional strong causality from economic growth to energy consumption for the oil exporting countries the findings have practical policy implications for decision makers in the area of macroeconomic planning in most major oil exporting countries government policies keep domestic prices bellow free market level resulting in high levels of domestic energy consumption the results imply that the energy conservation through reforming energy price policies has no damaging repercussions on economic growth for this group of countries

on energy consumption and gdp studies a meta analysis of the last two decades abstract the relationship between energy consumption and gdp growth has been intensely examined in multiple frameworks set by various methods and countries this paper is a meta analysis of 51 studies published in the last two decades with worldwide data since 1949 on the relationship between energy consumption and gdp growth the aim is to systemize some of the factors that cause the variation of results in these studies our results yield evidence that the long run elasticity of gdp growth with respect to energy consumption is not independent of the method employed for cointegration the data type and the inclusion of variables such as the price level or capital in the cointegration equation also 1 increase in capital increases the elasticity of gdp with respect to energy consumption by 0 85

energy demand and environmental taxes the case of greece the purpose of this paper is to analyze the effects that energy taxes may have on reducing environmental pollution in greece we study the demand for residential energy for the period 1965 1998 and on the basis of these estimates we make forecasts for co2 emissions in the coming years furthermore we develop alternative scenarios for tax changes and study their effects on co2 emissions according to our findings the harmonization of the greek energy taxes to the average european union levels implies an increase of total co2 emissions by 6 annually if taxes are raised however to the highest european union levels the co2 emissions are restricted significantly these empirical findings may indicate that environmental taxation cannot be the unique instrument for combating pollution

energy consumption and economic growth assessing the evidence from greece abstract this paper attempts to shed light into the empirical relationship between energy consumption and economic growth for greece 1960 1996 employing the vector error correction model estimation the vector specification includes energy consumption real gdp and price developments the latter taken to represent a measure of economic efficiency the empirical evidence suggests that there is a long run relationship between the three variables supporting the endogeneity of energy consumption and real output these findings have important policy implications since the adoption of suitable structural policies aiming at improving economic efficiency can induce energy conservation without impeding economic growth

energy and economic growth in industrializing countries the case of greece abstract this paper investigates some aspects of the interrelated paths of economic growth and energy demand in the case of an industrializing economy through the use of numerous econometric models translog functions have helped establish that income and price elasticities of energy two critical parameters in the energy economy interaction exhibit falling trends with time the value share of the industrial sector is strongly associated with both energy demand and energy intensity any increase in the former will lead to amplified increases in the latter rendering the continuation of past trends in industrial expansion questionable under conditions of high energy costs substitution among capital labour and energy does take place though to a limited extent as indicated by the aggregate measure of energy non energy substitution elasticity all findings appear to suggest that energy policymaking in an industrializing country like greece will be of low effectiveness until certain structural changes in the economy are realized

energy consumption and economic activities in iran abstract the causal relationship between overall gdp industrial and agricultural value added and consumption of different kinds of energy are investigated using vector error correction model for the case of iran within 1967 2003 a long run unidirectional relationship from gdp to total energy and bidirectional relationship between gdp and gas as well as gdp and petroleum products consumption for the whole economy was discovered causality is running from value added to total energy electricity gas and petroleum products consumption and from gas consumption to value added in industrial sector the long run bidirectional relations hold between value added and total energy electricity and petroleum products consumption in the agricultural sector the short run causality runs from gdp to total energy and petroleum products consumption and also industrial value added to total energy and petroleum products consumption in this sector

energy consumption and economic growth in the light of meeting the targets of energy policy in the eu the bootstrap panel granger causality approach abstract the aim of the paper is to assess linkages between energy consumption and economic growth in the light of compliance with the eu energy policy targets stated in the climate and energy package for 2020 in the european union member states in the period 1993 2011 the study is divided into two main stages during the first one using cluster analysis methods four groups of countries which met three energy policy targets stated in the package at similar levels were identified during the second stage the bootstrap granger panel causality approach proposed by konya 2006 was used to verify the hypothesis of causality between energy consumption and economic growth in the countries from four groups created in the previous step the global financial crisis was also taken into account the results obtained reveal that the level of compliance with energy policy targets influences linkages between energy consumption and economic growth the results indicate causal relations in the group of countries with the greatest reduction of greenhouse gas emissions the highest reduction of energy intensity and the highest share of renewable energy consumption in total energy consumption in the remaining groups the results mostly confirm the neutrality hypothesis

the informational role of commodity prices in formulating monetary policy a reexamination abstract this paper reexamines the issue of whether commodity prices provide useful information for formulating monetary policy through the application of a recent development in time series methodology developed by toda and yamamoto j econometrics 66 1995 225 250 we found that commodity prices signal the future direction of the economy

economic growth and energy consumption revisited evidence from linear and nonlinear granger causality the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth is considered as an imperative issue in energy economics previous studies have ignored the nonlinear behavior which could be caused by structural breaks in this study both linear and nonlinear granger causality tests are applied to examine the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth for a sample of asian newly industrialized countries as well as the u s this study finds evidence supporting a neutrality hypothesis for the united states thailand and south korea however empirical evidence on philippines and singapore reveals a unidirectional causality running from economic growth to energy consumption while energy consumption may have affected economic growth for taiwan hong kong malaysia and indonesia policy implications are also discussed

understanding the shadow impacts of investment and divestment decisions adapting economic input output models to calculate biophysical factors of financial returns abstract in recognition of the cumulative effects resulting from financial decisions a growing number of campaigns are advocating for the removal of investment funds from companies responsible for high levels of carbon emissions a systematic approach can aid in examining the social economic and environmental impacts that extend beyond political motivations to divest from fossil fuel companies we have adapted publicly available economic input output life cycle assessment models eio lca to develop a shadow impact calculator sic for examining the potential environmental impacts of investment decisions an investment portfolio s shadow impacts represent the economic social and environmental effects underlying an investor s decision to place their funds in particular financial instruments in this study we focus on greenhouse gas emissions to show which sectors of the united states economy have particularly large or small carbon shadows and place those results in the context of volatility and earnings to demonstrate how sic may be used we examine the endowment investments of a canadian university in the context of divesting from fossil fuel companies our analysis suggests that large pooled funds choosing to direct their investments away from heavy carbon emitters may have less of an impact than would otherwise be expected

identification of endogenous social effects the reflection problem this paper examines the reflection problem that arises when a researcher observing the distribution of behaviour in a population tries to infer whether the average behaviour in some group influences the behaviour of the individuals that comprise the group it is found that inference is not possible unless the researcher has prior information specifying the compisition of reference groups if this information is available the prospects for inference depend critically on the population relationship between the variables defining reference groups and those directly affecting outcomes inference is difficult to implossible if these variables are functionally dependent or are statistically independent the prospects are better if the variables defining reference groups and those directly affecting outcomes are moderately related in the population

a note on population size industrial diversification and regional economic instability this study investigates the relationships among city size economic stability and various measures of industrial diversification it was prompted by the conflicting findings of previous researchers concerning the above relationships it finds different relationships between city size and various diversification measures therefore part of the past disagreement may be due to the use of different definitions of diversification the study also shows that a portfolio measure of diversification is highly significant in explaining instability instability can also be partly explained by measures of the equality of employment distribution finally holding diversification measures constant instability decreases with larger city size

energy demand in greece abstract this paper examines the impact of the two energy crises 1973 74 and 1978 79 on energy demand in greece initially some specific characteristics of energy consumption patterns before and after 1973 are presented and compared then demand parameters for hydroelectric energy liquid fuels and solid fuels were estimated using data for the period 1963 1984 and alternative econometric methods ols 2sls fiml to ensure that estimates do not vary across different estimation methods appropriate tests were used to examine whether a structural change in energy demand has occured following either of the two crises the results indicate that while consumption patterns may be different due to price and income changes after the crises the parameters of energy demand in greece have remained unchanged

long and short term dynamic causal transmission amongst international stock markets abstract this paper investigates the dynamic causal linkages amongst nine major international stock price indexes in order to gauge the causal transmission patterns we employ very recent methods of i vector error correction modeling and ii level var modeling with possibly integrated and cointegrated processes advocated by i toda and phillips econometrica 61 1993 1367 and ii toda and yamamoto j econometrics 66 1995 225 respectively the paper illustrates how such methods may be appropriately augmented in a compatible fashion to unearth previously unfounded linkage properties inherent amongst a system of stock price indexes in particular we demonstrate that previous research by using ordinary difference vars ignored an important component of linkages displayed purely over the long run this untapped evidence essentially provides robust and very useful information to international financial analysts and investors at a substantive level results of this study tend to support the contention offered by several studies in the literature of significant interdependencies between the established oecd and the asian markets and also the leadership of the us and uk markets over the short and long run the levels var however illustrate the japanese market s influence as an additional long run leader findings seem to be plausible given that these three markets us uk and japan have consistently contributed over 75 of global stock market capitalization over the major part of the sample under consideration at a methodological level this analysis also provides a primer for the wealth of applied financial econometric research focusing on dynamic causal inference which involve systems containing possibly integrated and cointegrated processes

mobilizing private finance for low carbon innovation a systematic review of barriers and solutions this paper analyses the field of innovation studies regarding barriers to low carbon innovation and consequences for finance investment and divestment and contributes to a more holistic understanding of the underlying mechanisms a combination of technological barriers combined with economic barriers institutional and political barriers contribute to sub optimal low carbon investment all along the innovation cycle policy makers need to take a systemic approach to enable the redirection of diverse private financial sources instruments range from cutting dirty r d subsidies and support for clean technology innovation and diffusion levelling the institutional playing field and making risks of high carbon and low carbon technologies transparent to providing a consistent but adaptive long term transition strategy this would allow financiers to gradually shift their investments away from high carbon mainstream markets and scale low carbon technology niche markets however financiers also need to sharpen their competencies with regard to new clean technologies and markets

estimating energy conservation patterns of greek households abstract this paper develops an empirical model to investigate the main determinants of household energy conservation patterns in greece employing cross section data in the empirical analysis household energy conserving choices models are employed using a discrete and a latent trait variable respectively as a dependent variable the results show that socio economic variables such as consumers income and family size are suitable to explain differences towards energy conservation preferences in addition the results suggest that electricity expenditures and age of the respondent are negatively associated with the number of energy conserving actions that a consumer is willing to adopt finally other variables such as environmental information feedback and consciousness of energy problems are characteristics of the energy saver consumer by evaluating consumer s decision making process with regards to energy conservation measures we are able to formulate and propose an effective energy conservation framework for greece an energy policy framework is among the main prerequisites not only to achieve sustainable development but also to maintain consumers quality of life

energy consumption and gdp in turkey is there a co integration relationship energy consumption and gdp are expected to grow by 5 9 and 7 annually until 2025 in turkey this paper tries to unfold the linkage between energy consumption and gdp by undertaking a co integration analysis for turkey with annual data over the period 1970 2003 the analysis shows that energy consumption and gdp are co integrated this means that there is a possibly bi directional causality relationship between the two we establish that there is a unidirectional causality running from gdp to energy consumption indicating that energy saving would not harm economic growth in turkey in addition we find that energy consumption keeps on growing as long as the economy grows in turkey

unemployment volatility and regional specialization in the european union ezcurra r unemployment volatility and regional specialization in the european union regional studies this paper examines the link between unemployment volatility and the sectoral composition of economic activity in the regions of the european union over the period 1980 2004 to that end different spatial econometric techniques are used that allow the investigation of the role played in this context by spatial effects and geographical spillovers the results show that unemployment volatility is positively related to regional specialization in the european union this finding does not depend on the use in the analysis of absolute or relative specialization measures ezcurra r l instabilite du chomage et la specialisaiton regionale dans l union europeenne regional studies cet article cherche a examiner le lien entre l instabilite du chomage et la structure sectorielle de l activite economique dans les regions de l union europeenne entre 1980 et 2004 dans ce but on emploie diverses techniques econome

energy consumption and economic growth evidence from china at both aggregated and disaggregated levels using a neo classical aggregate production model where capital labor and energy are treated as separate inputs this paper tests for the existence and direction of causality between output growth and energy use in china at both aggregated total energy and disaggregated levels as coal oil and electricity consumption using the johansen cointegration technique the empirical findings indicate that there exists long run cointegration among output labor capital and energy use in china at both aggregated and all three disaggregated levels then using a vec specification the short run dynamics of the interested variables are tested indicating that there exists granger causality running from electricity and oil consumption to gdp but does not exist granger causality running from coal and total energy consumption to gdp on the other hand short run granger causality exists from gdp to total energy coal and oil consumption but does not exist from gdp to electricity consumption we thus propose policy suggestions to solve the energy and sustainable development dilemma in china as enhancing energy supply security and guaranteeing energy supply especially in the short run to provide adequate electric power supply and set up national strategic oil reserve enhancing energy efficiency to save energy diversifying energy sources energetically exploiting renewable energy and drawing out corresponding policies and measures and finally in the long run transforming development pattern and cut reliance on resource and energy dependent industries

energy consumption and economic growth in central america evidence from a panel cointegration and error correction model abstract this study examines the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth for six central american countries over the period 1980 2004 within a multivariate framework given the relatively short span of the time series data a panel cointegration and error correction model is employed to infer the causal relationship based on the heterogeneous panel cointegration test by pedroni pedroni p 1999 critical values for cointegration tests in heterogeneous panels with multiple regressors oxford bulletin of economics and statistics 61 653 670 pedroni p 2004 panel cointegration asymptotic and finite sample properties of pooled time series tests with an application to the ppp hypothesis new results econometric theory 20 597 627 cointegration is present between real gdp energy consumption the labor force and real gross fixed capital formation with the respective coefficients positive and statistically significant the granger causality results indicate the presence of both short run and long run causality from energy consumption to economic growth which supports the growth hypothesis