can learning affect exchange rate behavior the case of the dollar in the early 1980 s this paper demonstrates that a change in parameters of the money market that is not immediately understood will affect the behavior of exchange rate forecast errors while the market is learning the analysis is applied to the behavior of u s dollar german mark forecast errors during the early 1980 s when the market appeared to systematically underpredict the strength of the dollar consistent with this observation empirical estimates of implied forecast errors based upon bayesian learning suggest that forecast errors would have been on average negative during the period as the market came to realize the increase in u s money demand

the monetary approach to exchange rate determination under rational expectations the dollar deutschmark rate abstract this paper reformulates the monetary approach after ascertaining that a money demand function with a partial adjustment mechanism had more empirical support than a money demand function which assumed instantaneous stock adjustment the resulting exchange rate equation is estimated by two rational expectations techniques the parameter estimates are reasonable and are robust to the estimation technique used to different specifications of the driving processes and to changes in the estimation period the structural model outperforms the random walk model and its own unconstrained equivalent a pure time series equation in outof sample forecasts

random walk and the velocity of money some evidence from annual quarterly series abstract the random walk hypothesis is tested using annual data of the united kingdom and quarterly data of eight industrialized countries while annual series follow a random walk not all quarterly series do this sharply contrasts with the results of ahking 1982

optimal harvesting of an age structured schooling fishery biologists have criticized traditional biomass models in fishery economics for being oversimplified biological stock assessment models are more sophisticated with regard to biological content but rarely account for economic objectives this study includes a full age structured population model for studying schooling fisheries and extends the delayed difference approach used in earlier studies we take the total harvest as the choice variable resulting in a simple analytical structure the model produces optimal steady states that may be higher or lower compared to the delayed difference formulation the model is applied to the baltic sprat fishery both ecological and harvesting cost data support specifying baltic sprat as a schooling fishery given nonlinear harvesting costs the optimal solution is a path toward a steady state with smooth annual harvest and population age structure sensitivity analysis shows that the optimal solution is highly dependent on the population level of the sprat s main predator baltic cod a linear cost function and an interest rate below 9 imply pulse fishing instead of smooth continuous harvesting given nonlinear harvesting cost the optimal steady state yield is rather insensitive to changes in the interest rate however under a high cod scenario interest rates of 10 or higher implies that no optimal steady state exists

measuring the opportunity cost of holding money more evidence on the term structure of interest rates abstract this paper tests the statistical importance and forecasting performance of a term structure money demand equation relative to two competing specifications the evidence indicates that the term structure specification is preferred to one using a long term interest rate but not a short term rate forecasts for 1981 1982 reveal that the term structure model is preferable to both alternatives

the collapse of purchasing power parities during the 1970 s one of the striking facts concerning the relationship beiveen prices and exchange rates during the 1970 s has been the dismal performance of the predictions of the simple versions of the purchasing power parity doctrine ppp that doctrine in its absolute version states that the equilibrium exchange rate between domestic and foreign currencies equals the ratio of domestic to foreign price levels the relative version of the doctrine relates equilibrium changes in exchange rates to changes in the ratio of domestic to foreign prices during the 1970 s short run changes in exchange rates bore little relationship to short run differentials in national inflation rates and frequently divergences from purchasing power parities have been cumulative this paper reviews and analyzes the empirical record of exchange rates and prices during the 1970 s and the analysis is based on the experience of the dollar pound the dollar frecch franc and the dollar dm exchange rates section 2 presents the evidence on ppp during the 1970 s and contrasts it with the evidence from the 1920 s a period during which the doctrine held up reasonably well this analysis is relevant for assessing whether the flexible exchange rate system was successful in providing national economies with an added degree of insulation from foreign shocks and whether it provided policymakers with an added instrument for the conduct of macroeconomic policy the evidence regarding devia tions from purchasing power parities is also relevant for determining whether there is a case for managed float section 3 attempts to explain what went wrong with

endogenous search price dispersion and welfare abstract this paper studies the welfare cost of inflation in a frictional monetary economy with endogenous consumer search equilibrium entails price dispersion where sellers compete for buyers by posting prices we identify three channels through which inflation affects welfare the real balance channel is the source of welfare loss its interaction with the price posting channel generates a welfare cost larger than lucas 2000 the search channel reduces the welfare cost by more than one half through general equilibrium effect the aggregate effect of these three channels on welfare is non monotonic additionally the welfare cost of inflation fluctuations is negligible

monetary policy when interest rates are bounded at zero this paper assesses the importance of the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates for the interest rate channel of monetary policy we simulate several interest rate setting policy rules with ei

blessing or curse foreign and underground demand for euro notes public finance solutions to the european unemployment problem developing countries may hold as much as 25 30 of the 1 3 trillion oecd currency supply although dollar holdings appear to exceed dm holdings by a factor of four the advent of the euro may change this balance indeed by issuing large denomination notes of 100 200 and 500 the european central bank appears to be well poised to challenge the dominance of the ubiquitous us 100 note however large denomination notes are also extremely popular in the oecd underground economy which appears to hold at least 50 of the currency supply as a result the seigniorage revenues obtained by issuing large denomination notes may be an accounting illusion substantially or fully offset by losses due to increased tax evasion hence the new european central bank may wish to consider policies that discourage underground use of currency even at the expense of losing out on foreign demand kenneth rogoff

the effect of term structure of interest rates on the demand for money in the united states this note describes an experiment in incorporating the term structure of interest rates rather than a few selected interest rates in a demand for money equation the computed equation is for the united states is based on data for the period from 1873 to 1975 and takes a business cycle phase expansion or contraction as the basic time unit this note has two parents a purely theoretical analysis of money demand by one of us which concludes that the whole term structure of interest rates is relevant to the demand for money friedman 1977 and an empirical test of that conclusion with post world war ii quarterly u s data heller and khan 1979 the success of that test induced us to make a similar test with our phase average data covering a century

imperfect information some implications for modelling the exchange rate abstract within a broader setting of rational expectations where agents do not fully know the parameter values of the model expectations errors from past observable and persistent shocks will lead to systematic effects in particular observable lagged current account shocks will affect the exchange rate within a mundell flemming model even where there is perfect capital mobility moreover the process of agents learning unknown parameter values and revising the values of the forecast parameters would suggest the use of a variable coefficient estimation method to capture the data generating process outside strong form rational expectations

generating enhanced fishery rents by internalizing product quality characteristics this paper demonstrates howadditional rents are generated in a fisherycharacterized by intraseasonal variation infish characteristics including size condition and composition based on anexpanded conceptual model of the optimalharvest rule fish characteristics affect preand post harvest production yields and outputprices a dynamic empirical model which uses asystem of quality characteristics and anhedonic equation illustrates the complexrelationships and management choices associatedwith internalizing seafood qualitycharacteristics in a hake fishery the modelretains the regulated open access managementsystem but controls intertemporal andintersectoral quotas production portfolios and total allowable catch results demonstratethat including revenue side effects frominternalizing fish quality can generatesignificantly greater rents and reduce therelative benefits of increased productionyields if excluded bioeconomic models canunderestimate the level of regulatory rentdissipation and overemphasize managementobjectives such as full utilization whichcould misdirect processing decisions and resultin a suboptimal resource management plan implications for data collection multidisciplinary analysis and improvements inmarine resource management are discussed

seasonal harvest patterns in multispecies fisheries fishers face multidimensional decisions when to fish what species to target and how much gear to deploy most bioeconomic models assume single species fisheries with perfectly elastic demand and focus on inter seasonal dynamics in real world fisheries vessels hold quotas for multiple species with heterogeneous biological and or market conditions that vary intra seasonally we analyze within season behavior in multispecies fisheries with individual fishing quotas accounting for stock aggregations capacity constraints and downward sloping demand numerical results demonstrate variation in harvest patterns we specifically find 1 harvests for species with downward sloping demand tend to spread out 2 spreading harvest of a high value species can cause lower value species to be harvested earlier in the season and 3 harvest can be unresponsive or even respond negatively to biological aggregation when fishers balance incentives in multispecies settings we test these using panel data from the norwegian multispecies groundfish fishery and find evidence for all three we extend the numerical model to account for transitions to management with individual fishing quotas in multispecies fisheries we show that under some circumstances fishing seasons could contract or spread out

price level targeting vs inflation targeting a free lunch price level targeting without base drift and inflation targeting with base drift are compared under commitment and discretion with persistence in unemployment price level targeting is often said to imply more short run inflation variability and thereby more employment variability than inflation targeting counter to this conventional wisdom under discretion a price level target results in lower inflation variability than an inflation target if unemployment is at least moderately persistent a price level target also eliminates the inflation bias under discretion and as is well known reduces long term price variability society may be better off assigning a price level target to the central bank even if its preferences correspond to inflation targeting a price level target thus appears to have more advantages than commonly acknowledged

evolution of the trans atlantic exchange rate before and after the birth of the euro and policy implications the establishment of the euro could present a challenge to the hegemony of the us dollar as the predominant international currency the fact that the unipolar us dollar dominated international monetary system can be unstable in the presence of large shocks presents an opportunity for the euro to promote systemic stability the present study pursues this conjecture by exploring with cointegration and error correction method techniques the interdependence between the dynamics of the dollar euro exchange rate and economic fundamentals in the context of a monetary exchange rate model our results suggest that both short run price stickiness and long run secular growth fundamentals affect the exchange rate path these findings support a relatively broad based policy approach to promote the collective economic interest of the eu zone to the extent that such policies succeed in strengthening and stabilizing the euro zone economy they are likely to buttress and possibly accelerate the internationalization

direct effects of base money on aggregate demand theory and evidence abstract meltzer the transmission process working paper carnegie mellon university 1999a shows that real monetary base growth is a significant determinant of consumption growth in the us controlling for the short term real interest rate in this paper i show that the same property of base money holds for total output relative to trend or potential in both the us and the uk the standard optimizing is lm model cannot account for this result but i show that it can once the long term nominal interest rate is included in the money demand function because the long term real rate matters for aggregate demand the presence of the long term nominal rate in the money demand function increases the effect of nominal money stock changes on real aggregate demand when prices are sticky

learning and the volatility of exchange rates abstract this paper investigates the implications for the volatility of exchange rates of specifying market uncertainty as parameter uncertainty private agents learn by means of bayes rule about a parameter of the stochastic process generating the exogenous variables learning is shown to magnify the reaction of exchange rates to random shocks to the market fundamentals this magnification effect of learning can explain the rejections of the econometric tests on the variance bounds and on the absence of bubbles that have been reported in the literature

efficient exchange rate forecasts lagged models better than the random walk abstract the evidence of meese amd rogoff 1983 on the out of sample forecasting performance of structural exchange rate models in comparison to the random walk model portrays a disappointing picture of structural models this paper re considers the issue for the german mark for an updated period to include a larger set of structural models and lagged adjustment besides out of sample evidence in sample evidence is also examined we conclude that while some stuctural models dominate the random walk a lagged adjustment consideration can contribute towards better performance

was it real the exchange rate interest differential relation over the modern floating rate period in this paper we explore the relationship between real exchange rates and real interest rate differentials in the united states germany japan and the united kingdom contrary to theories based on the joint hypothesis that domestic prices are sticky and monetary disturbances are predominant we find little evidence of a stable relationship between real interest rates and real exchange rates we consider both in sample and out of sample tests one hypothesis that is consistent with our findings is that real disturbances such as productivity shocks may be a major source of exchange rate volatility this paper investigates the empirical relationship between major currency real exchange rates and real interest rates over the modern post march 1973 flexible rate experience the exchange rates examined here include the dollar mark dollar yen and dollar pound rates our two major findings are as follows first the data do not indicate a strong correspondence between real interest rate differentials short term or long term and real exchange rates this finding appears to conflict with the predictions of most monetary and portfolio balance models of exchange rate determination though the conflict can be substantially reconciled if aggregate disturbances are primarily real in nature i e changes in productivity tastes etc it is true that in many cases the sign of the estimated exchange rate interest rate differential relationship is consistent with the possible predominance of financial market disturbances but the relationship is not stable enough to be statistically significant second although one does find some evidence of a unit root in both real exchange rates and long term but not shortterm real interest differentials these two series do not appear to be linearly cointegrated hence the nonstationarity or near nonstationarity in the two series cannot be attributed to the same factor in section i we briefly describe a class of small scale monetary models of exchange rate determination the importance of this class of models for empirical work derives from its strong predictions about how the exchange rate will move

whither monetary economics i argue that monetary economics should be pursued by applying implementation theory to models which contain explicit frictions that make money essential the argument has two parts first i argue that models in which real balances are assumed to be productive models with money in utility or production functions or with cash in advance constraints contain hidden inconsistencies second i argue that the approach advocated is capable of providing new insights about some of the main issues in monetary economics the effects of monetary shocks the welfare cost of inflation and the roles of inside and outside money

intrinsic fish characteristics and intraseason production efficiency a management level bioeconomic analysis of a commercial fishery biological changes in pacific whiting merluccius productus and corresponding production yields were used to model a vertically integrated fishery from harvest through processing the seasonal bioeconomic programming model incorporated stock dynamics with the interactive economic effects of intrinsic fish quality the harvest schedule and quota allocation between heterogeneous user groups the optimal management plan would maximize discounted net industry revenues npv given a minimum spawning biomass npv was maximized when the intraseason timing of harvest coincided with the seasonal improvement in fish quality e g following spawning and or migration npv was only marginally affected however by the quota allocation between groups

towards a reconciliation of the empirical evidence on the monetary the monetary approach to exchange rate determination has served as a theoretical workhorse in open economy macroeconomics yet empirical evidence concerning its validity is mixed tests based on structural forms of the model are typically negative while cross equation restrictions tests based on nonstructural representations are typically favorable the authors s eek a reconciliation of these results by investigating the small sample performance of cross equation restrictions tests their investigatio n indicates that the tests have surprisingly low power in detecting nontrivial departures from the model thus the authors conclude that something is amiss with standard versions of the monetary approach t o exchange rate determination copyright 1993 by mit press

management of a multiple cohort fishery the hard clam in great south bay this paper develops a reasonably general multiple cohort model and derives conditions for optimal harvest and age structure based on a discrete time control problem which maximizes the present value of net revenues subject to recruitment and spawning constraints the model is applied to the hard clam resource in great south bay which is located on long island new york the steady state optimum calls for exclusive harvesting of the younger and more valuable littleneck cohorts leaving the older and less valuable cherrystone and chowder cohorts to specialize in regeneration most of the models employed by economists to characterize renewable resources have presumed that the resource population can be adequately described by a single index or state variable such a view is consistent with much of the classical literature in physical biology where population growth was described using the logistic equation lotka volterra such models may be inadequate however when dealing with a resource where recruitment and fecundity are dependent on the population s age structure or where the revenues and costs of resource exploitation vary with the age at harvest clark biologists have been aware of the importance of age specific attributes and have developed several models to characterize the population dynamics of a single species lewis and leslie independently developed models where the abundance of various

testing for bubbles in exchange markets a case of sparkling rates this paper investigates the possibility that the observed deviations of major bilateral exchange rates from values implied by market fundamentals are a consequence of rational asset market bubbles when a new econometric methodology for detecting asset market bubbles is used the joint hypothesis of no bubbles and stable autoregressive processes for relative money supplies and real incomes is rejected for the dollar deutsche mark and dollar pound ratesusing monthly data over the period 1973 82 additional tests for coefficient stability and for lack of cointegration between exchange rates and market fundamentals suggest that the bubble findings must be interpreted with care

time varying parameters and the out of sample forecasting performance of structural exchange rate models varying parameter estimation techniques based on recursive application of the kalman filter are used to improve the predictive performance of a class of monetary exchange rate models i find that allowing estimated parameters to vary over time enhances the models forecasting performance for the dollar pound dollar mark and dollar yen exchange rates contrary to earlier results in the literature ex post forecasts for the dollar mark rate compare favorably with those obtained from the naive random walk forecasting rule

taylor rules and the deutschmark dollar real exchange rate we explore the link between an interest rate rule for monetary policy and the behavior of the real exchange rate the interest rate rule in conjunction with some standard assumptions implies that the deviation of the real exchange rate from its steady state depends on the present value of a weighted sum of inflation and output gap differentials the weights are functions of the parameters of the interest rate rule an initial look at german data yields some support for the model

recent instability of the demand for money an international perspective aggregate money demand functions once an apparent bulwark for macroeconomic research have had to be re examined in the light of the events and discoveries of the 1970s following goldfeld s extensive analysis it now is widely recognized that the demand for mi balances in the united states cannot be explained satisfactorily by standard functions apparently because of shifts occurring in the early 1970s similar reservations see below have been expressed with respect to m3 balances in the united kingdom where the demand relationships appear to have been upset by the introduction of regulatory reforms in 1971 in both cases part of the problem can be traced to specific events but the possibility remains that a more general instability may be present the rapid inflation experienced by all major industrial countries after 1973 the concurrent collapse of the bretton woods system of fixed exchange rates and the attempts by most major central banks to control growth in domestic money stocks may all have altered the responses of the demand for money to the standard functional arguments this paper presents a range of stability tests for a set of demand functions estimated for two monetary aggregates in each of six countries in order to determine whether money demand functions more generally have been stable over the recent period and to attempt to identify the nature and causes of any observed instabilities the major conclusions are that none of the other functions examined displays instabilities as severe as those of the mi function for the united states and that the latter may be unstable in a more persistent and fundamental way than has heretofore been recognized the equations estimated for this study are based on a variant of goldfeld s log linear real balances function the deflated value of money balances is related to real income interest rates and inflation with lagged adjustments introduced via a simple koyck transformation this function obviously is in a simplified form especially with respect to the lag struc

overcoming the zero bound on interest rate policy the paper proposes three options for overcoming the zero bound on interest rate policy a carry tax on money open market operations in long bonds and monetary transfers a variable carry tax on electronic bank reserves could enable a central bank to target negative nominal interest rates a carry tax could be imposed on currency to create more leeway to make interest rates negative quantitative policy monetary transfers and open market purchases of long bonds could stimulate the economy by creating liquidity broadly defined a central bank needs more fiscal support than usual from the treasury to pursue quantitative policy at the interest rate floor

the random walk hypothesis of the velocity of money some evidence from five eec countries abstract this paper investigates the random walk hypothesis of the velocity of money using quarterly data from five eec countries for all five countries this hypothesis is not rejected by the data

random walks and monetary velocity in the g 7 countries new evidence from a multiple variance ratio test the random walk hypothesis rwh of the velocity of money has often been supported for the developed economies the literature is however far from unanimous this paper employs the most recent methodological advances in testing for random walks the multiple variance ratio test to re examine the behaviour of the velocity of money in the g 7 countries monetary velocity is computed as the ratio of nominal income to contemporaneous money stock under alternative definitions of income and money the empirical results from the present study do not support the rwh in most of the g 7 countries with the us m1 and m2 velocities as exceptions furthermore the results show that the rwh is sensitive to either the definitions of monetary velocity or the sample period of study

pass through of exchange rates and purchasing power parity abstract in this paper we develop and test two hypotheses about purchasing power parity ppp the first is that changes in the price of traded goods relative to domestic substitutes will affect the ppp relation due to the partial pass through of exchange rates the second is that ppp should hold on forward rather than spot exchange rates due to hedging by firms which implies that the interest rate differential should enter the ppp relation for spot rates using quarterly data for several countries we find support for both these hypotheses though the magnitude of the interest rate effect is very small

the search for equilibrium relationships in international finance the case of the monetary model abstract this paper considers some of the main long run equilibrium relationships in international finance we supplement the phillips perron test which has a unit root under the null with the new kps test statistic which is based on a stationary null and apply them to the various exchange rate fundamentals the application of the johansen test for multiple cointegrating factors finds evidence of the existence of stable money demand functions in both the usa and uk with relatively short lived perturbations however there appears to be insufficient information in the data to distinguish whether the real exchange rate has a unit root or is persistent and mean reverting the consequent persistent deviations from purchasing power parity appears the only source of rejection of the equilibrium monetary model

two fallacies concerning central bank independence this paper takes issue with two basic conclusions prevalent in the literature on central bank behavior first the paper argues that it is inappropriate to presume that central banks will in the absence of any precommitment technology necessarily behave in a discretionary fashion that implies an inflationary bias since there is no functional connection between average rates of money creation or inflation and policy responsiveness to cyclical disturbances it is entirely feasible for the bias to be avoided in other words there is no necessary tradeoff between flexibility and commitment second to the extent that the absence of any absolute precommitment technology is nevertheless a problem it will apply to a consolidated central bank plus government entity as well as to the central bank alone thus contracts between governments and central banks do not overcome the motivation for dynamic inconsistency they merely relocate it this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

modelling the floating australian dollar can the random walk be encompassed by a model using a permanent decomposition of money and output abstract this paper tests whether the australian dollar has at least followed a random walk with drift in the first two years of its float having established this benchmark structural monetary models are constructed to see whether one can obtain better within sample and or out of sample results rational forecasts of exogenous variables are obtained using muth s 1960 decomposition interpolation is used to obtain weekly forecasts when the observation period is greater it appears that the random walk can be beaten

joint inventory and cash management for multidivisional supply chains this paper develops a centralized supply chain model that integrates material flows with cash flows the supply chain is owned by a single firm with two divisions the downstream division headquarters facing random customer demand replenishes materials from the upstream division the firm installs a financial services platform that pools the divisions cash into a master account managed by the headquarters in each period cash is received from customers and paid to the outside vendor after materials are delivered the headquarters determines how much cash to retain for inventory replenishment the objective is to determine an optimal joint inventory replenishment and cash retention policy for the entire supply chain we prove that the optimal policy has a surprisingly simple structure both divisions implement a base stock policy for inventory replenishment the headquarters monitors the corporate working capital and implements a two threshold policy for cash retention this result is obtained by exte

the role of money supply shocks in the short run demand for money abstract previous money demand models are either inconsistent with contemporaneous adjustment of the price level to expected changes in the nominal money supply or imply implausible interest rate fluctuations in response to innovations in nominal money we propose a shock absorber money demand model in which money supply shocks affect the synchronization of asset transactions and so engender a temporary increase or decrease in desired money holdings expected changes do not engender such fluctuations in real money inventories in simultaneous estimates for eight industrial countries the shock absorber model proved empirically superior

the perils of taylor rules abstract since john taylor s 1993 carnegie rochester conf ser publ policy39 195 214 seminal paper a large literature has argued that active interest rate feedback rules that is rules that respond to increases in inflation with a more than one for one increase in the nominal interest rate are stabilizing in this paper we argue that once the zero bound on nominal interest rates is taken into account active interest rate feedback rules can easily lead to unexpected consequences specifically we show that even if the steady state at which monetary policy is active is locally the unique equilibrium typically there exist an infinite number of equilibrium trajectories originating arbitrarily close to that steady state that converge to a liquidity trap that is a steady state in which the nominal interest rate is near zero and inflation is possibly negative journal of economic literature classification numbers e52 e31 e63

econometric approaches to empirical models of exchange rate determination abstract this paper identifies four principal econometric approaches to the estimation and testing of asset market models of exchange rate determination the traditional static reduced form approach the error correction and co integration dynamic reduced form approaches the simultaneous equations approach and large scale multi equation macroeconometric simulation models each of these econometric approaches is evaluated with respect to its theoretical validity and the comparative properties of the empirical results obtained this leads to the conclusion that although there may be little to choose between the different theoretical exchange rate models there may be grounds for favouring a multi equation simultaneous estimation procedure for this class of models

milton friedman s monetary economics and the quantity theory tradition abstract this article provides a selective review of milton friedman s contributions to monetary economics focusing on five areas in particular the demand for money the joint historical and empirical work with anna j schwartz the theoretical and empirical analyses of the phillips curve monetary policy and monetary dynamics

exchange rates and fundamental variables a semi parametric analysis of binary choice this study is motivated by the dearth of models that provide good out of sample fit for exchange rates that is current models of exchange rate behaviour are poor predictors of subsequent currency movements an attempt is made to determine if the relationship between exchange rates and fundamental variables can help explain the more extreme exchange rate movements distributional switches models are developed that relate fundamental economic variables to the resulting estimates based on the mixture of normal probability distributions parametric estimation procedures logit and probit are compared with a semi parametric technique maximum score estimation mscore which is relatively untested in the field of finance the fundamental variables of these models include information on trade balances money supply changes interest rate changes real economic growth relative inflation rates and changes in stock market indexes classification results favour mscore implications of results and improvements

forecast performance of exchange rate models revisited this paper re evaluates the performance of reduced form exchange rate models by updating the messe rogoff study 1983 this paper confirms earlier tests showing that simple monetary models do not perform well but it finds more positive results for other monetary models that incorporate more dynamic econometric specifications a simple error correction monetary model out forecasts a random walk almost half of the time

oligopsony and monopsonistic competition in labor markets we argue that models of oligopsony or monopsonistic competition provide insights and explanation for many empirical phenomena in labor markets using a simple model with job differentiation and preference heterogeneity we illustrate how such models can be employed to explain the existence of wage dispersion the persistence of labor market discrimination market failures in the provision of training and the anomalous employment effects of minimum wages

instrumental variables procedures for estimating linear rational expectations models abstract this paper illustrates how to use instrumental variables procedures to estimate the parameters of a linear rational expectations model these procedures are appropriate when disturbances are serially correlated and the instrumental variables are not exogenous we compare our procedures to some alternative estimators that estimate free parameters from restrictions implied by the euler equations the procedures are applicable to a variety of linear rational expectations models several examples of which we cite

markets and rent dissipation in regulated open access fisheries abstract using a model of regulated open access resource use with markets we illustrate the potential complexity of interactions between markets product quality excess effort and regulatory behavior in fisheries our model assumes two product types one of which is processed and storable the model describes the equilibrium that results when effort responds to open access incentives and when regulators respond to effort growth by mitigating its potential harmful effects on biomass safety we use numerical simulations to demonstrate a mechanism by which market growth leads to the diversion of raw inputs into the inherently inferior market the result is a scenario in which rents are dissipated not only because excessive inputs raise costs but also because inferior product types reduce revenues we conclude with an illustrative decomposition of rent gains into revenue and cost savings gains from rationalizing a hypothetical fishery demonstrating the potential significance of market side rents

money demand and the term structure of interest rates some consistent estimates heller and khan 1979 hereafter hk employ a quadratic function of the term structure of interest rates to obtain quarterly coefficient estimates of its level slope and curvature these estimates are substituted for the interest rate variable in a short run money demand function hk conclude that their specification is stable during the turbulent 1972 1974 period this note shows that hk s stability findings are dependent upon their use of the cochrane orcutt iterative technique hereafter corc not the inclusion of term structure variables we show that money demand equations incorporating term structure information specifically the specifications of hk bilson and hale 1980 hereafter bh and our own which uses a cubic function of the term structure are not stable when the hatanaka 1974 hereafter hat procedure is employed to correct for serial correlation

the fiscal theory of the price level a critique abstract this paper argues that the fiscal theory of the price level ftpl has feet of clay the source of the problem is a fundamental economic misspecification the ftplconfuses two key building blocks of a model of a market economy budgetconstraints which must be satisfied identically and market clearing or equilibriumconditions the ftpl asssumes that the government s intertemporal budgetconstraint needs to be satisfied only in equilibrium this economic misspecification has far reaching implications for the mathematicalproperties of the equilibria supported by models that impose the structure of theftpl it produces a rash of contradictions and anomalies jel classifications e31 e41 e51 e52 e62 e63 key words fiscal theory of the price level ricardian fiscal financial monetaryprogrammes government budget constraint price level indeterminacy author willem h buiter european bank for reconstruction and development oneexchange square london ec2a 2jn uktel 44 20 73386805fax 44 20 73386110 6111e mail buiterw ebrd comweb page http www nber org wbuiter index htm

monetary policy and the zero bound to interest rates a review1 this paper reviews the literature on what the zero bound to nominal interest rates implies for the conduct of monetary policy the aim is to evaluate the risks of hitting the zero bound and to evaluate policies that are said to be able to reduce that risk or policies that are proposed as means of helping the economy escape if it is in a zero bound trap i conclude that policies aimed at cure are arguably more uncertain tools than those aimed at prevention so prevention is a less risky strategy for policymakers but since the risks of hitting the zero bound seem quite small anyway and the risks of encountering a deflationary spiral smaller still it is conceivable that inflation objectives that typify modern monetary regimes already have more than enough insurance built into them to deal with the zero bound problem

the dollar pound exchange rate in the 1920s an empirical investigation much of the empirical support for the monetary approach to exchange rate determination has been obtained with data from the 1920s for example clements and frenkel 4 frenkel 8 9 frenkel and clements 11 and huang 18 all obtained favorable empirical evidence estimating different versions of the monetary model the empirical results with data from the 1970s however are mixed bilson 1 2 3 edwards 7 hoffman and schlagenhauf 16 and woo 25 obtained favorable empirical evidence while dornbusch 6 hartley 14 huang 17 meese and rogoff 20 and shafer and loopesko 24 obtained contrary empirical evidence this mixed performance of the monetary exchange rate model in the 1970s has been attributed by dornbusch 6 and frenkel 10 to the failure of purchasing power parity ppp to hold in the short run and by meese and rogoff 21 to the instability of the u s money demand function we re examine the empirical evidence on the dollar pound exchange rate in the 1920s using the simple monetary exchange rate model popularized by bilson 1 2 and frenkel 8 9 thus it is not the purpose of this paper to suggest new empirical monetary exchange rate models nevertheless there are several important reasons why we re examine the simple monetary exchange rate model first several important implications of the monetary exchange rate model in our opinion are not adequately tested in existing work second there is a presumption that the failure of the monetary exchange rate model in the 1970s and the 1980s is due to special events such as real shocks that affected ppp and the instability of the u s money demand function by using the data from the 1920s we hope to avoid the problem of the instability of the u s money demand equation in the 1970s moreover frenkel 10 found that ppp held up reasonably well in this period thus the period of the 1920s provides a favorable setting to test the monetary approach finally we choose the dollar pound exchange rate based on data availability our empirical methodology differs from most previous empirical studies in that we estimate the reduced form equation of the exchange rate within a system of three equations in addition to the reduced form equation of the exchange rate there are also two equations describing monetary equilibrium one for the domestic economy and one for the foreign economy the estimation

the out of sample forecasting performance of exchange rate models when coefficients are allowed to change abstract this study examines the out of sample forecasting performance of models of exchange rate determination without imposing the restriction that coefficients are fixed over time both fixed and variable coefficient versions of conventional structural models are considered with and without a lagged dependent variable while our results on fixed coefficient models support most of the meese and rogoff conclusions we find that when coefficients are allowed to change an important subset of conventional models of the dollar pound the dollar deutsche mark and the dollar yen exchange rates can outperform forecasts of a random walk model the structural models considered are the flexible price frenkel bilson and sticky price dornbusch frankel monetary models and a sticky price model which includes the current account hooper morton

cointegration and the long run forecast of exchange rates abstract multivariate cointegration is used to generate the long run forecast of the dollar dm exchange rate it is shown that while the random walk model outperforms the monetary structural models in the short run the latter based on the error correction model outperform the former in the long run

the monetary model of the exchange rate long run relationships short run dynamics and how to beat a random walk abstract the monetary model is re examined for the sterling dollar exchange rate first it is demonstrated using a multivariate cointegration technique that an unrestricted monetary model is a valid framework for analyzing the long run exchange rate second we find once proper account has been taken of the short run data dynamics that an unrestricted monetary model outperforms the random walk and other models in an out of sample forecasting contest jel f31

economic inefficiency in a revenue setting the norwegian whitefish fishery the main focus in the inefficiency literature is on suboptimal input use and how this causes increased costs due to technical and allocative inefficiency production or cost functions are then typ

a general equilibrium model of exchange market intervention with variable sterilization abstract the model presented in this paper is characterized by rational expectations sticky prices imperfect capital substitution separate policy functions for domestic credit and credit and reserves and variable sterilization monetary intervention and sterilization policies offer complex tradeoffs between internal and external objectives sterilization dampens exchange rate and price changes due to intervention but magnifies short run changes due to foreign interest rate shocks the ratio of exchange rate to price changes due to intervention rises at an increasing rate with the degree of sterilization and changes in domestic credit induce long run purchasingn power parity but exogeneous changes in reserves income or the foreign interest rate do not

is it signalling exchange intervention and the dollar deutschemark rate abstract the portfolio balance channel for sterilised intervention is tested by examining the effects of changes in relative asset supplies on the dollar deutschemark rate during the 1980s in contrast to previous studies we control for any signalling effects of central bank intervention and find a weak but statistically significant portfolio balance influence on the exchange rate