landlords tenants and technological innovations abstract there is a long standing belief that landlords and capitalists have used their control over the means of production to direct the development and adoption of technologies which have increased their welfare at the expense of workers there is also a wide spread belief that the interlinkage between credit and tenancy markets which seems so prevalent in ldcs provides further impetus to the resistance of innovations innovations which make tenants better off reduce their demand for loans and thus make landlords qua creditors worse off these contentions have typically been dismissed out of hand by standard welfare economics arguments the rural environment of most ldcs may not however be adequately described by the standard economic model on which this welfare analysis is based in particular in many ldcs sharecropping contracts are widely employed there is evidence of widespread unemployment and there is not the full set of risk and capital markets required by the competitive paradigm the objective of this paper is to show under quite general conditions that the institutional structure of the economy may indeed be an important determinant of whether a particular innovation will or will not be adopted we show that 1 i landlords may wish to and can resist innovations which unambiguously increase production whenever sharecropping contracts are employed 2 ii conversely landlords may adopt innovations which not only lower the welfare of workers but even lower net national product 3 iii the presence of interlinkage may indeed affect the adoption of a new technology however the reason for this is only partly related to the effect of innovations on tenants borrowing indeed we show that innovations may increase as well as decrease the tenants demand for borrowing

modern rice technology and regional wage differentials in the philippines abstract fear has been widely expressed that the modern rice varieties have created large disparities in regional income distribution as the productivity gap between favorable and unfavorable rice production environments widened due to differential technology adoption throughout south and southeast asia over the last two decades technology affects the income of farm population directly through its effects on productivity and factor use and indirectly through its effect on factor prices in particular the ultimate distributional impact of modern varieties will critically depend on the interregional labor market adjustments through migration in response to regional wage differentials created by the differential technology adoption since labor is the main resource of the majority of the rural population we studied favorable and unfavorable rice growing villages in the philippines and found that adoption of modern varieties during the 1970s was positively related to population growth rate contrary to popular belief no association was observed between wage rates and adoption of modern varieties as of 1986 these findings support the hypothesis that the differential adoption of modern rice varieties induced interregional labor migration toward equalization of wage income across different production environments

unraveling the complex interrelationships between exchange rates and fundamentals abstract this research investigates the intrinsic characteristics of currency values by fundamentally decomposing investor expectations on 16 currencies the results on 195 exchange rates over several decades indicate investors perceive countries to be more likely to choose devaluation solutions to bop problems when inflation is lower and when an alternative drop in real income growth is more painful in addition empirical support is provided for the hypothesis that forward rates often appear biased because the distributional expectations incorporated into them include for a country with a current account deficit a small probability of a large spot decline that does not actually occur in most finite samples

getting ppp right identifying mean reverting real exchange rates in panels abstract recent advances in testing for the validity of purchasing power parity ppp focus on the time series properties of real exchange rates in panel frameworks one weakness of such tests however is that they fail to inform the researcher as to which cross section units are stationary as a consequence a reservation for ppp analyses based on such tests is that a small number of real exchange rates in a given panel may drive the results in this paper we examine the ppp hypothesis focusing on the stationarity of the real exchange rates in up to 25 oecd countries we introduce a methodology that when applied to a set of established panel unit root tests allows the identification of the real exchange rates that are stationary our results reveal evidence of mean reversion that is significantly stronger as compared to that obtained by the existing literature strengthening the case for ppp

a reexamination of purchasing power parity a multicountry and multiperiod study abstract this paper re examines the purchasing power parity ppp theory in a multiple exchange rate world owing to a lack of precision in estimating the parameters many authors concluded that ppp did not hold very well in the 1970s using a time series cross sectional estimation procedure we are unable to reject the hypothesis that ppp holds in several currencies simultaneously in addition the parameters are precisely estimated this result follows from the estimation procedure which allows us to exploit the cross sectional variation in the data and the contemporaneous correlation in the deviations from ppp

green revolution land reform and household income distribution in the philippines income of agricultural households consists of returns to labor capital and land from farming supplemented mainly by labor earnings from nonfarm sources agricultural technology affects farmers income through its effect on factor demands and factor prices which in turn induce changes in the allocation of farmers own resources to different uses income from farming is also affected by village institutions such as land tenure which governs the distribution of income between landlords and tenants as well as resource allocations

bureaucratic capacity delegation and political reform thecentraltensionmotivatingcontemporarytheories of delegation from politicians to bureaucrats lies in the potential conflict between the value of bureaucratic expertise on one hand and the desire for political control on the other this tension is well known and has been debated at least since weber s classic work on bureaucracy modern bureaucracies are staffed with individuals who by virtue of rational bureaucratic organization are highly skilled policy experts who in principle should be able to help less knowledgeable politicians achieve their goals however the very skills and expertise that bureaucrats enjoy create the possibility that bureaucrats will usurp the rightful role of politicians in policymaking processes because the way this tension is resolved determines the ultimate compatibility of democracy and bureaucracy existing theories of delegation typically focus on understanding how and to what extent politicians can resolve it 1 in many contexts particularly developing democracies bureaucracy does not fit the weberian characteristics that are assumed in the existing delegation literature the bureaucracies may be staffed with individuals who lack the personal capacity to execute orders effectively the organizational structure may lead to breakdowns within bureaucratic hierarchies making it difficult for senior administrators to control their subordinates departments and ministries may lack basic budgets and resources to undertake implementation actions they may suffer from incentives for

the behaviour of the real exchange rate evidence from regression quantiles abstract we test for mean reversion in real exchange rates using a recently developed unit root test for non normal processes based on quantile autoregression inference in semi parametric and non parametric settings the quantile regression approach allows us to directly capture the impact of different magnitudes of shocks that hit the real exchange rate conditional on its past history and can detect asymmetric dynamic adjustment of the real exchange rate towards its long run equilibrium it therefore provides a detailed mapping of the real exchange rate behaviour while being a robust alternative to previous unit root tests the latter is confirmed by a simulation analysis comparing the power of the alternative tests as concerns the real exchange rate our results suggest that large shocks tend to induce strong mean reverting tendencies in the exchange rate with half lives less than one year in the extreme quantiles mean reversion is faster when large shocks originate at points of large real exchange rate deviations from the long run equilibrium however in the absence of shocks no mean reversion is observed finally we report asymmetries in the dynamic adjustment of the rer

are shocks to ecological footprint in oecd countries permanent or temporary abstract the main goal of this study is to check the unit root properties of the ecological footprint and its six subcomponents cropland footprint grazing land footprint fishing grounds footprint forest land footprint built up land footprint and carbon footprint in 25 oecd the organisation for economic co operation and development countries during the period 1961 2013 this study uses a new stationarity test with sharp and smooth breaks in the panel setting developed by bahmani oskooee et al 2014 empirical findings demonstrate that the fishing grounds footprint does not have mean reverting behavior while the remaining ecological indicators display stationary properties under the assumption of both homogenous and heterogeneous long run variance therefore if policymakers decide to decrease the size of the fishing grounds footprint they will not face stiff resistance in addition to the panel results the univariate stationarity test results can also help policymakers in each country design effective emission reduction policies

revisiting purchasing power parity in latin america sequential panel selection method this study applies the sequential panel selection method spsm proposed by chortareas and kapetanios 2009 to test the validity of long run purchasing power parity ppp in a sample of 15 latin american countries using monthly data spanning from december 1994 to february 2010 spsm classifies the whole panel into a group of stationary and nonstationary series in doing so we can clearly identify how many and which series in the panel are stationary processes empirical results from the spsm using the panel kss unit root test ucar and omay 2009 with a fourier function which accounts for any structural break in the data indicate that ppp holds in many of the latin american countries studied

induced innovations and farm mechanization cal change in agriculture then they come mainly from the public agent of farm technology the agricultural research system the research system should be held responsible for the social consequences of farm mechanization and it should be budgeted and directed accordingly on the other hand if mechanization and exit from farming are caused mostly by external price and wage changes the responsibility of the research system is limited principally to technology improvement in this note we discuss the newly emerging tradition of induced innovation and its relation to the alternative explanations of machine labor substitution in agriculture we first clarify the conceptual basis of the induced innovation hypothesis and the related innovation possibility function second we call into question the validity of some of the empirical applications we argue that an incomplete conceptualization of the induced innovation idea has led to invalid empirical tests and to inappropriate implications on the causes of american farm mechanization

border region panel evidence on ppp deviations this article examines prices for 32 identical menu items sold by restaurant franchises operating on both sides of the border between el paso in the us and ciudad juarez in mexico from july 1997 to june 2008 the relationship between real exchange rate rer volatility and the degree of price convergence is examined within a panel data context the city pair and goods selected provide a unique experiment in which distance tradability and industry considerations are set aside and the extent of rer volatility is the only factor to influence price convergence we find nonmonotonic relationships between mean reversion and rer volatility very fast adjustments for both low and high volatility panels of goods between 1 and 2 months and slower half lives between 3 and 4 months at moderate levels of uncertainty these figures are however substantially smaller than the 6 or 7 months reported in previous research for general us mexico goods suggesting the very strong price convergence observed along the us m

long memory and mean reversion in real exchange rates in latin america this article examines the long run purchasing power parity ppp hypothesis for 12 latin american real effective exchange rates reers using fractional integration techniques the empirical result

theories of share tenancy a critical survey for the past 2 decades the problems of agricultural tenancy have attracted a great deal of attention not only from agricultural economists but also from economists in general as a typical example of agencyprincipal contract relations despite the prolific growth of literature both theoretical and empirical there has been little convergence in opinions on tenancy contracts the divergence has been especially great on the understanding of the causes and the effects of sharecropping tenancy much confusion underlying the widely divergent perspectives has stemmed from partial treatments of contractual choice which unduly limit the optimizing behavior of contracting parties and the options of contract forms this essay aims at clarifying the sources of the confusion by reviewing the past literature in light of the more general theory of agency principal relations the agency theory in order to examine the problems of various theoretical models in a unified framework in section ii we first develop the basic framework of a general model of tenancy contract in section iii we clarify in terms of the general model contradictions latent in the traditional marshallian theory which asserts that share tenancy is inefficient because of the disincentive effect of cropsharing on the tenant s work effort in section iv we attempt to show that recent efforts to reconstruct the theory based on the traditional assumption have not yet been quite successful section v draws implications and testable hypotheses from more general theories incorporating the aspects of risk and uncertainty section vi tests allocational and distributional implications of those alternative hypotheses based on the summary of evidence col

uncertainty in currency mispricing abstractdeclaring a currency to be mispriced is fraught with uncertainties in this article these uncertainties are explicitly recognized in a model of pricing a homogeneous commodity around the world this allows for a common driver of prices due to a base currency effect and country specific factors that lead to departures from absolute ppp on account of income differences local taxes and charges etc this approach leads to estimates of currency mispricing whose significance can be tested in the usual way using big mac prices we show that the approach has advantages over the popular big mac index to currency valuation

capture and the bureaucratic mafia does the revolving door erode bureaucratic integrity does the revolving door phenomenon erode bureaucratic integrity to answer this question we undertake a quantitative case study of a private university in south korea that recruited a former vice minister of education as its president specifically we investigate whether after employing this high ranking former public official the university received favorable treatment from the education ministry in terms of funding estimates from difference in difference triple difference and synthetic control methods all suggest that the high profile public official s recruitment is associated with financial benefits from the official s former employing agency no such advantage however was observed for benefits from other agencies this result offers suggestive but compelling evidence that the revolving door distorts the allocation of government resources the financial benefits the university received are due not to the recruited official s greater competence expertise or knowledge but rather to his implicit collusion with the government

purchasing power parity and unit root tests using panel data abstract this paper reports the results of unit root tests for real exchange rates using a panel framework this panel approach provides greatly improved power compared to conventional univariate time series unit root tests we obtain evidence supporting ppp over the recent flexible exchange rate period for g 6 and oecd countries we show explicitly that failure to find such evidence in previous research was due to the low power of the tests

determinants and consequences of land reform implementation in the philippines abstract unlike the experience of other developing countries land reform in the philippines has been successful in converting many of share tenants to land reform beneficiaries this study indicates that the implementation of land reform is positively associated with yield growth made possible by the adoption of modern seed fertilizer technology a major reason underlying such association is considered to be an increased economic interest of tenants in land reform arising from divergence of rental value of land from leasehold rent and amortization fees prescribed by law

dynamic input decisions in econometric production models this study develops an econometric methodology for estimating dynamic production models with sequential intermediate input decisions two problems arise in the study of intermediate inputs intermediate input decisions may be endogenous to final output and intermediate inputs are likely to be correlated with each other and other variables making identification and estimation difficult the econometric model measures the productivity of intermediate inputs taking into account the farmer s sequential input decisions and input productivity differences during the growing season a multistage cobb douglas model of wheat response to irrigation water is used to illustrate the proposed methods

investment intensity of currencies and the random walk hypothesis cross currency evidence abstract this paper studies the cross currency and temporal variations in the random walk behavior in exchange rates we characterize currencies with relatively large investment flows as investment intensive and conjecture that the more investment intensive a currency is the closer its exchange rate adheres to random walk using 29 floating bilateral usd exchange rates we find that the higher the investment intensity the less likely it is to reject random walk and the smaller the deviation from random walk is however the effect of investment intensity is non monotonic application of threshold models shows that after investment intensity reaches the estimated thresholds the level of investment intensity has no further effect on the deviation from random walk these findings help reconcile the previous conflicting results on the random walk in exchange rates by focusing on the effect of cross currency and temporal variations in investment intensity

adoption of agricultural innovations in developing countries a survey this paper reviews various studies which have provided a description and possible explanation to patterns of innovation adoption in the agricultural sector the survey points out that the tendency of many studies to consider innovation adoption in dichotomous terms adoption nonadoption may not be appropriate in many cases where the actual decisions are defined over a more continuous range more attention needs to be given to the socio cultural and institutional environment in area studies so that their interrelation with economic factors affecting adoption can be inferred the presence of several interrelated innovations is another aspect that needs to be considered more carefully in future research since a number of simultaneous decisions may be involved furthermore the possibility of regular sequential patterns in adopting components of a new technological package should be specifically addressed in future studies finally the impact of differential adoption rates on land holding distribution merits attention in future research

parity reversion in the asian real exchange rates new evidence from the local persistent model this article investigates the time series properties of 13 asian real exchange rates rers vis a vis the us dollar the half life point estimates drawn from the local persistent model are all less than 2 years with a finite upper bound there is no evidence to indicate that the asian financial crisis has altered the speed of the purchasing power parity ppp adjustments we find that the persistence of rers over the last three decades remains unchanged in majority of the cases given the fairly rapid speed of adjustments and their corresponding confidence intervals we conclude that the ppp puzzle does not exist in these countries

technical change and labor absorption in asian agriculture some emerging trends abstract increased labor absorption in agriculture has been widely held to be the key to solving unemployment problems in developing asia following the historical experience of east asian countries the new seed fertilizer technology interacting with expansion of irrigation and cropping intensity initially increased labor absorption in wheat and rice production however evidence from recent village studies indicates that new labor saving chemical and mechanical innovations originating in the developed countries are being rapidly adopted by farmers of the developing countries owing to their private cost reducing characteristics this international transfer of technology contributes to increased productivity but results in net reductions of agricultural labor use recognition of the declining capacity of the agricultural sector for labor absorption indicates the need to seek solutions to unemployment problems in the off farm sector

unit root and trend breaks in per capita output evidence from sub saharan african countries abstractthis article examines the nonstationary properties of per capita real output in 28 sub saharan african ssa countries covering the period 1960 2014 the sequential testing approach proposed by kejriwal and lopez 2013 econometric reviews 32 8 892 927 is used to categorize ssa countries into growth shift level shift and linear trend hypotheses based on the presence or not of breaks in slope and or level of the trend function the break dates are associated to major historical or economic events such as sociopolitical crisis commodity price fluctuations on international market the discovery and the exploitation of mineral deposits or unfavourable environmental and climatic conditions the empirical evidences of appropriate unit root tests fail to reject the unit root hypothesis in all the countries suggesting that a shock would have a permanent effect on growth process and stabilization policies may be implemented in dealing with income fluctuations

are real exchange rates nonstationary evidence from a panel data test it is well documented that real exchange rates between the united states and many industrialized countries in the post bretton woods period are integrated this result implies that purchasing power parity ppp does not hold even as a long run relationship this paper demonstrates that the failure to reject the unit root hypothesis may result from the low power of existing univariate test procedures i test for unit roots in real exchange rates by employing a more powerful panel based procedure using both cpi and wpi real dollar exchange rate data i strongly reject the null hypothesis of a unit root my results provide overwhelming support for the long run ppp under the current float copyright 1996 by ohio state university press

convergence of per capita co2 emissions across the globe insights via wavelet analysis abstract this paper examines the convergence of per capita carbon dioxide co2 emissions for 162 countries across the globe covering all income groups high income oecd high income non oecd middle income and low income countries as categorized by the world bank the incidence of stochastic convergence is analysed by making use of recently developed wavelet based unit root tests the existing studies on this subject make use of conventional unit root tests using time series and or panel data a serious drawback of these tests is that they analyse the stochastic behaviour of any series in time domain only whereas the stochastic process may behave differently across different frequencies as well thus wavelet methods are an obvious solution as they consider frequency dimension as well in addition to time dimension when analyzing the stochastic behaviour of any data series and hence these methods encompass the conventional unit root testing methodologies by providing a clear and complete picture of the stochastic process our empirical findings based on latest available time series annual data from 1960 to 2010 lend support in favor of convergence among 38 countries including 18 high income oecd countries 2 high income non oecd countries 13 middle income countries and 5 low income countries while for the rest of 124 countries the co2 emission series is found to be non stationary suggesting the divergence in these countries these findings are in contrast with the most of the existing studies which may be due to the use of wavelet based unit root tests that are of course better alternatives some policy implications evolve from the empirical findings

how puzzling is the ppp puzzle an alternative half life measure of convergence to ppp summary evidence of lengthy half lives for real exchange rates in the presence of a high degree of exchange rate volatility has been considered as one of the most puzzling empirical regularities in international macroeconomics this paper suggests that the measure of half life used in the literature might be problematic and proposes alternative measures with desirable properties their focus on the cumulative effects of the shocks distinguishes them from the measures used in the literature an empirical analysis of bilateral us dollar real exchange rates employing the alternative half life measure produces results consistent with theory and indicates that the ppp puzzle is less pronounced than initially thought copyright 2012 john wiley sons ltd

testing for rational bubbles in the presence of structural breaks evidence from nonstationary panels this paper presents new results on the rational bubbles hypothesis for a panel of 18 oecd countries using the model developed by campbell 2000 we provide an analysis of international data that exploits increased power deriving from the panel unit root and cointegration methodology together with the flexibility of allowing explicitly for multiple endogenous structural breaks in the individual series differently from the time series methodology the panel data approach allows for a global analysis of the financial crashes that are related to rational bubbles we find strong evidence in favor of bubbles phenomena

green revolution and labour demand in rice farming the case of central luzon 1966 90 while the adoption of modern rice varieties mvs increased labour requirements for crop care and other activities it might have induced the adoption of labour saving technologies thus whether the net impact of mv adoption on labour demand is significantly positive is still debated in the green revolution literature using farm level survey data collected in central luzon from 1966 to 1990 this study estimated simultaneously the labour saving technology adoption and the labour demand functions we found among other things that mvs increased labour demand significantly without inducing the widespread adoption of labour saving technologies

expectations of future income and real exchange rate movements abstract we show that changes in expectations of future income driven by exogenous factors such as the discovery of oil and an increase in global demand for natural resources can cause movements in the real exchange rate rer in excess of and sometimes even in the opposite direction to what one would expect given the changes in current income we provide both a theoretical model and empirical evidence of this in particular we show that the signing of numerous production sharing agreements psas between the government of azerbaijan and foreign oil companies in 1994 1998 fueled expectations of higher future incomes resulting in a considerable appreciation of the rer some of these psas subsequently failed or ran into difficulties which led to a downward revision of expected future income and a depreciation of the rer in 1999 2003 even though the current income started to rise due to an increase in the current oil revenue

permanent labour and land tenancy contracts in agrarian economies an integrated analysis extending the existing models of land and labour contracts this study attempts to build a general model of long term agrarian contracts the model implies that where tenancy is an available option the fixed wage permanent labour contract will not be chosen if it is chosen under institutional constraints on tenancy contracts resulting resource allocations will be inefficient empirical relevance of the model is tested on data from the philippines

the revolving door and worker flows in banking regulation abstract this paper traces career transitions of federal and state u s banking regulators from a large sample of publicly available curricula vitae and provides basic facts on worker flows between the regulatory and private sector resulting from the revolving door we find strong countercyclical net worker flows into regulatory jobs driven largely by higher gross outflows into the private sector during booms these worker flows are also driven by state specific banking conditions as measured by local banks profitability asset quality and failure rates the regulatory sector seems to experience a retention challenge over time with shorter regulatory spells for workers and especially those with higher education evidence from cross state enforcement actions of regulators shows gross inflows into regulation and gross outflows from regulation are both higher during periods of intense enforcement though gross outflows are significantly smaller in magnitude these results appear inconsistent with a quid pro quo explanation of the revolving door but consistent with a regulatory schooling hypothesis

seasonal labor utilization in agriculture theory and evidence from agrarian households in india this paper develops and tests a dynamic stochastic model of seasonal labor demand of farm households in a developing country seasonality in agriculture is modeled as a dynamic two stage process planting and harvesting with sequential dependence of decisions yield risk is an important determinant of behavior in the planting stage only the proposed model is estimated using plot specific cross section time series data from india consistent estimates of the male and female labor demand functions in the planting and harvesting stages are obtained by panel data econometric methods that control for the nonseparability of the model

is the evidence for ppp reliable a sustainability examination of the stationarity of real exchange rates abstract some recent time series studies testing the stationarity of real exchange rates rers produce conflicting results using nonlinear unit root tests and recursive analysis this paper tests whether the evidence on the stationarity of rers is sensitive to different numeraire currencies different sample periods covering regional and global crises and the inclusion of countries with different levels of economic or regional integration the results indicate that evidence for a stationary rer could be substantially sensitive to sample period changes but not so for the currencies of the countries involved in forming the euro area we also find that financial crises have a notable impact on testing the stationarity of rers depending on the numeraire currency used we discuss the policy implications of the findings

real exchange rate behavior the recent float from the perspective of the past two centuries using annual data spanning two centuries for dollar sterling and franc sterling real exchange rates we find strong evidence of mean reverting real exchange rate behavior using simple stationary autoregressive models estimated on prefloat data we easily outperform nonstationary real exchange rate models in dynamic forecasting exercises over the recent float such stationary univariate equations explain 60 80 percent of the in sample variation in real exchange rates although the degree of short run persistence may be high the econometric estimates imply a half life of shocks to the real exchange rate of about 6 years for dollar sterling and a little under 3 years for franc sterling

the choice of numeraire currency in panel tests of purchasing power parity we investigate the implications of the choice of numeraire currency on panel tests of purchasing power parity under the current regime of flexible exchange rates by conducting panel unit root tests with twenty one different base currencies we show that the conditions necessary for numeraire irrelevancy are not supported empirically and that the choice of numeraire currency can and does matter for ppp the evidence of ppp is stronger for european than for non european base currencies distance between the countries and volatility of the exchange rates are the most important determinants of the results

increasing evidence of purchasing power parity over the current float we conduct unit root tests of real exchange rates with the united states dollar and the german mark as base currencies using samples of data which begin in 1973 and end between 1982 and 1996 we find that as the sample is extended the evidence of ppp strengthens with panel but not univariate methods because of the sharp rise and fall of the dollar in the early 1980s rejections of the unit root null do not monotonically increase with the sample size the evidence of ppp is uniformly stronger when the mark is used as the base currency

the occupations of regulators influence occupational regulation evidence from the us private security industry licensing requirements for us private security firms and guards differ substantially from state to state state regulatory institutions for this industry also vary considerably some states have specialized regulatory boards with industry personnel guards firm owners and or public police as board members while others rely on non specialized regulators such as departments of commerce state professional regulation or consumer affairs these cross state variations in licensing requirements and regulatory institutions provide an opportunity to explore relationships between the two private security regulation is of particular interest in this context because previous empirical research implies that allocating more resources to private security reduces crime and that relatively stringent licensing requirements limit entry thereby increasing crime a panel of 1991 2010 state data is employed to see if particular regulatory institutions are associated with particular licensing requirements empirical results suggest that requirements for entry into this market tend to be relatively strict when active private security personnel are in control of licensing and that different patterns of regulation generally apply when police or non specialized agencies control licensing therefore both public interest and private interest explanations for the observed relationships between the structure of regulatory institutions and resulting licensing requirements are discussed

behavior of the firm under regulatory constraint a recent article by akira takayama discusses an earlier paper by harvey averch and leland l johnson on fair rate of return regulation of public utilities although takayama p 255 agrees with averch and johnson s general conclusions that a firm will tend to increase its investment with the introduction of an active constraint on its rate of return he criticizes the a j argument as being confusing ambiguous and in error takayama then attempts a clarification and presents a new formulation which leads to the a j result quoted above this comment will discuss several of takayama s criticisms in addition to showing that the so called a j effect cannot be derived from the basic assumptions made by both averch and johnson and takayama 1 we will show that the very assumptions used to prove the a j effect by defining the region of x require an assumption that the a j effect exists in the first place

the ppp debate multiple breaks and cross sectional dependence abstract this study implements panel unit root ppp tests accommodating level and trend breaks and cross sectional dependence in the presence of breaks there is evidence of a currency and price index effect additionally accounting for cross sectional dependence overturns support for ppp

a retrospective view of technological and other changes in philippine rice farming 1965 1982 much has been written about the impact of changes brought about through the introduction of semidwarf fertilizer responsive rice and wheat in asia the terms green revolution and miracle varieties suggest the dramatic effect anticipated from the new biological technology by both its supporters and detractors a great volume of literature has been generated describing the impact of these changes much of that literature is speculative some is theoretical and it would be fair to say much is cast in a tone with negative implications for new technology theoretical analyses necessarily balance simplifying assumptions with the richness of detail needed to capture the effects of technical and other changes while empirical analysis often shows what has happened but sheds little light on why it may have happened a recent review of the empirical literature shows that adoption of modern rice varieties in asia results in increased output has occurred quite evenly among farmers of all size groups and has resulted in modest increases in the use of labor per hectare of rice produced some empirical studies contrast areas that have adopted the technology with areas that have not thereby making the often false implicit assumption that all factors other than those specifically studied were similar other empirical studies concentrate on high adoption areas and use recall to infer how the introduction of technology may have changed variables of interest 2 there are a few pioneer studies available that contrast areas before and after the general adoption of specified technologies 3 this paper is a summary of ongoing research that provides data of the latter type researchers at the international rice research institute irri have monitored two sets of philippine rice producers for over 15 years during that period new rice technology was introduced and was

effect of modern rice varieties and irrigation on household income distribution in nepalese villages abstract since high yielding modern rice varieties mvs are adopted only in favorable production environments significant regional productivity differentials have emerged in nepal this study explores the distributional consequences of such differential mv adoption based on an intensive survey of favorable and unfavorable villages we found that mv adoption increased returns to land but decreased family labor earnings from rice production as it facilitated the substitution of hired for family labor as a result the differential mv adoption did not significantly worsen the household income distribution according to the results of the counterfactual gini decomposition analysis

exchange rate economics is always and everywhere controversial abstractthis article reviews the major developments in the recent literature on exchange rate economics it is argued that the link between the exchange rate and economic fundamentals is breaking new ground evidence indicates that alternative analytical frameworks such as the new open economy macroeconomics and exchange rate arrangements such as the euro have their theoretical and analytical elegance but are proving empirically very difficult to implement the role of methodological advances and alternative fundamental instruments such as world commodity prices is also highlighted

regulatory capture in agency performance evaluation industry expertise versus revolving door lobbying this study investigates the concept of bureaucratic competence specifically we challenge the argument that a careerists premium the tendency for public services run by careerists to receive better performance evaluations than services administered by other types of public managers necessarily is explained by the superior expertise of career bureaucrats evidence that forms the basis of this possibility comes from performance evaluations of korean state owned enterprises soes managed by different types of executives between 2000 and 2015 the results of our analyses provide support for the existence of a careerists premium however we find that the premium is most salient and significant when executives had retired from the governmental agency that oversees the performance evaluation process moreover the gap between qualitative and quantitative assessment scores increase significantly when the evaluated soes are managed by career executives who have retired from the regulating agency this result suggests that the oft cited careerists premium may not necessarily signify careerists greater expertise it may also be the product of lobbying and regulatory capture

new rice technology and comparative advantage in rice production in the philippines the aim of this study is to assess the comparative advantage in rice production in the philippines for the past three decades since 1966 we have found that the country gained sharp improvement in comparative advantage in rice production in 1979 when yield rose remarkably due to the diffusion of pest and disease resistant modern rice beginning in 1986 however the country appears to have slowly lost its comparative advantage due to the decline in rice prices stagnation in rice yield and rising cost of domestic factors by 1990 the country completely lost its comparative advantage in rice production

extracting inflation from stock returns to test purchasing power parity relative purchasing power parity ppp holds for pure price inflations which affect prices of all goods and services by the same proportion while leaving relative prices unchanged pure price inflations also affect nominal returns of all traded financial assets by exactly the same amount recognizing that relative ppp may not hold for the official inflation data constructed from commodity price indices because of relative price changes and other frictions that cause prices to be sticky we provide a novel method for extracting a proxy for realized pure price inflation from stock returns we find strong support for relative ppp in the short run using the extracted inflation measures

a currency preferential approach to international equity investment we propose a timex strategy for reducing the foreign exchange risk associated with international equity investment pertaining to countries with currencies correctly or undervalued by the standard of ppp the performance of timex is examined from the perspectives of eight developed nations with long histories of free floating currencies based on the data from 1986 q1 to 2014 q4 we find unambiguous evidence for the superior performance of timex in the foreign exchange market compared with the passive diversification strategy and the morgan stanley capital international msci world index timex offers higher total returns and risk adjusted total returns when rebalanced every 6 or 12 months for investors based in all eight countries under study when rebalanced at a 3 year interval timex outperforms the passive diversification and the msci world index for five and all eight countries respectively

deviations from purchasing power parity under different exchange rate regimes do they revert and if so how abstract we propose an empirical model for deviations from long run purchasing power parity ppp that simultaneously accounts for three key features i adjustment toward ppp may occur via nominal exchange rates and relative prices at different speeds ii different exchange rate regimes may generate regime shifts in the structural dynamics of ppp deviations iii nonlinear reversion toward ppp in response to shocks this empirical framework encompasses and synthesizes much previous empirical research using over a century of data for the g5 countries we provide evidence that long run ppp holds the relative importance of nominal exchange rates and prices in restoring ppp varies over time and across different exchange rate regimes and reversion to ppp occurs nonlinearly at a speed that is fairly consistent with the nominal rigidities suggested by conventional open economy models

sequential decision making in production models single equation estimates of production models usually are justified by the assumption that production inputs are chosen as part of a one period decision problem yet most production decisions in agriculture are made sequentially in this paper the farmer s optimal input choices are modeled as optimal controls in a stochastic control problem a two period cobb douglas example is used to show that sequential solutions to production problems may yield models which require either single equation or simultaneous equation estimators functional separability stochastic specification and behavior under uncertainty are discussed in the context of dynamic production models

role of agricultural research in poverty reduction lessons from the asian experience abstract the poor spend much of their income on food depend primarily on labour earnings and tend to reside in marginal agricultural areas to reduce poverty agricultural research should aim to ensure adequate food supplies by developing yield increasing technologies to increase labour demand by developing labour using technologies and to develop technologies suitable for marginal areas this article seeks to identify appropriate technologies that agricultural research should generate for poverty reduction the identification is based on a review of the experience of the green revolution in rice production in asia and an assessment of the changing structure of income sources among rural households in the philippines

a panel project on purchasing power parity mean reversion within and between countries abstract previous time series studies have shown evidence of mean reversion in real exchange rates deviations from purchasing power parity ppp appear to have half lives of approximately four years however the long samples required for statistical significance are unavailable for most currencies and are potentially inappropriate because of regime changes in this study we re examine deviations from ppp using a panel of 150 countries and 45 annual post wwii observations our panel shows strong evidence of mean reversion that is similar to that from long time series ppp deviations are eroded at a rate of approximately 15 annually i e their half life is around four years such findings can be masked in time series data but are relatively easy to find in cross sections

the evolution of purchasing power parity abstract a large body of literature in international finance has attempted to estimate the speed of convergence between countries aggregate price indices to those levels predicted by purchasing power parity ppp this paper takes a novel approach by considering how this speed of convergence itself has evolved over time using a dynamic common correlated effects dcce framework from chudik and pesaran 2015 applied to a panel of countries real exchange rates over the years 1960 2015 we find an average half life of around 3 years moreover we show that the estimated half life fell by about 2 years over the course of the past five decades suggesting that the so called ppp puzzle rogoff 1996 may abating over time our results also serve to contextualize past estimates by demonstrating a high degree of sample selection sensitivity in this literature furthermore we propose explanations for the observed increase in the speed of international price adjustments focusing primarily on the increasingly tradable nature of the composition of the u s consumer price index cpi we build a measure of tradability of the cpi and show that despite an increase in the proportion of services in the average consumer s basket the cpi has become more tradable over time thus offering a potential explanation for the observed increase in adjustment speed

energy demand convergence in apec an empirical analysis this paper empirically examines the cross country convergence of per capita energy and electricity usage in apec a significant economic bloc to this end the study applies conventional panel unit root tests and sequential panel selection model spsm procedure based on the panel kss unit root with a fourier function for robustness analysis the results from conventional unit root test results indicate that per capita energy usage and electricity consumption are converging for all apec countries in line with improving living standards in apec the findings also provide some support for policies to promote energy integration among apec countries according to spsm analysis evidence of energy convergence is found for 15 out of 19 apec countries and evidence of electricity convergence is found for 17 out of 19 apec countries pursuit of policies to achieve energy supply stability can move divergent countries toward convergence

differential adoption of modern rice technology and regional wage differential in nepal in nepal which consists of ecologically distinct regions the concentration of the adoption of modern rice varieties in the favourable rice growing areas of the country has raised fears that regional income disparities have widened this study shows that greater demand for hired labour due to the adoption of modern rice varieties has induced permanent and seasonal migration from unfavourable to favourable areas this appears to have largely equalised average wage rates across different production environments thus as far as labour income is concerned benefits from the modern varieties have been widely shared

a market based evaluation of the election versus appointment of regulatory commissioners this paper examines the elected versus appointed commissioner dichotomy from a market value perspective previous empirical analysis tends to concentrate on rates rather than examining the impact on shareholders wealth we examine life insurance industry data during the period surrounding the passage of california s proposition 103 the primary impact of the referendum on life insurers is to change the method of commissioner selection from appointment to popular vote we find that this change significantly reduced the value of life insurers doing business in california this result is consistent with the recent findings of boyes and mcdowell 1989 and smartt 1994 using alternative evaluation procedures for firms in other regulated industries this implies that the change to a popular election of commissioners either increases the level of risk and or decreases the expected cash flows of regulated firms

are house prices in south africa really nonstationary evidence from spsm based panel kss test with a fourier function this study applies the sequential panel selection method spsm to investigate the time series properties of provincial house prices for entire large medium and small middle segments of south africa quarterly time series data were collected from nine provinces in south africa for different house size categories over the period of 1978 q1 to 2012 q4 whereas other panel based unit root tests are joint tests of a unit root for all members of a panel and are incapable of determining the mix of integrated of order zero i 0 series and integrated of order one i 1 series in a panel setting the spsm proposed by chortareas and kapetanios 2009 can clearly identify how many and which series in the panel are stationary processes by classifying a whole panel into a group of stationary and nonstationary series the empirical results from several panel based as well as standard pure time series unit root tests indicate that house prices for the nine provinces studied here are either stationary or nonstati

searching for stationarity purchasing power parity under the current float abstract using panel data methods we investigate long run purchasing power parity by testing for unit roots in real exchange rates of industrial countries under the current float the evidence against the unit root hypothesis is stronger for larger than for smaller panels for monthly than for quarterly data and when the german mark rather than the united states dollar is used as the base currency while we find that accounting for serial correlation considerably weakens the evidence against the unit root null the results as a whole are consistent with long run purchasing power parity

income distribution in rice growing villages during the post green revolution periods the philippine case 1985 and 1998 this paper aims to examine changes in household income sources and its impact on household income distribution in the post green revolution periods in 1985 and 1998 in the rural philippines we found that there has been a structural shift of household income away from farm in favor of nonfarm labor income sources this finding indicates that rural development is being led by nonfarm sectors such a shift has resulted in an increase in household income inequality as the distribution of nonfarm income has become less equal over time and was markedly more unequal than that of farm income in 1998

quantile unit root test and the ppp in africa abstractin this study we apply the quantile unit root test and revisit the purchasing power parity ppp in 20 african countries using real effective exchange rates over the period 1971q1 to 2012q4 while traditional unit root tests fail to reject unit root hypothesis in most of the countries results from quantile unit root test reject unit root null hypothesis in ghana mauritius niger south africa and togo providing support for the ppp at least in these five countries we further estimate the half life based on quantile autoregressive qar model to be about 4 57 7 96 quarters 1 2 year

nonlinear trends in real exchange rates a panel unit root test approach abstract we analyze the possibility of nonlinear trend stationarity as the alternative to unit roots in 23 oecd real exchange rates 1974 1998 by adding nonlinear time terms to the cips panel unit root test of pesaran 2007 we follow a thorough bootstrapping approach and propose a technique to adjust statistical significance for the use of multiple tests over several time trend orders the unit root null that all real exchange rates have unit roots is rejected at better than the 0 05 level bootstrapped results from a procedure of chortareas and kapetanios 2009 suggest that the hypothesis that all are stationary is reasonable we argue that nonlinear trend stationarity is the most likely alternative hypothesis for at least some of the real exchange rates because 1 the strongest cips rejection occurs when quadratic trends are specified 2 nonlinear time terms are statistically significant at the 0 10 level 3 the actual cips statistics are more consistent with cips sampling distributions from bootstrapped nonlinear trend stationary processes than from linear trend or mean stationary processes

testing the relative purchasing power parity hypothesis the case of korea abstractthis study examines the relative purchasing power parity ppp hypothesis using the data from the korean won us dollar and the korean won japanese yen foreign exchange markets we extract proxies for inflation from stock market returns of korea the united states and japan based on the method used by chowdhry roll and xia in 2005 we explicitly test the relative ppp hypothesis in light of the short run price volatility using monthly bimonthly and quarterly data from 1 january 1998 to 31 december 2012 our findings suggest that the empirical test results from the entire sample period do not support the relative ppp hypothesis however the results from the sample period excluding the asian financial crisis period show that the relative ppp hypothesis holds for the korean won us dollar market with a moderate magnitude of inflation impact but not for the korean won japanese yen market abrupt changes in exchange rates during the crisis period may have affected the relationship between inflation an

the overvaluation of purchasing power parity abstract recent panel studies of purchasing power parity have reported strong evidence of mean reversion in real exchange rates however these studies fail to control for cross sectional dependence in the data this failure has dramatic consequences raising the significance level of tests with a nominal size of 5 percent to as much as 50 percent it is shown in this paper that controlling for cross sectional dependence no evidence against the random walk null can be found in panels of up to 64 real exchange rates this finding cannot be attributed to low power as there is ample power in panels of this size to reject the unit root null