measuring returns on investments in collectibles this paper considers the question of how to measure and interpret the financial return to investing in collectibles we review various methodologies for creating priced indexes and then discuss studies that explicitly calculate a rate of return to some set of collectibles while most collectibles appear to yield positive real returns the majority embody more risk and yield lower financial returns than stocks other characteristics of collectibles prices such as covariance with other asset prices are also examined

the augmented latent class model incorporating additional heterogeneity in the latent class model for panel data abstract marketing researchers have actively sought to account for the heterogeneity in households preferences and responses to marketing mix elements e g price promotion when analyzing scanner panel data this is because not doing so biases response coefficient estimates that can potentially alter the conclusions drawn from such analyses in this article the authors present an extension to the latent class model lcm that accounts for additional heterogeneity by allowing households preferences to be a continuous mixture of segment level preferences the authors show how their model generalizes the lcm by the mere addition of s 1 parameters where s refers to the number of segments because a limitation of the traditional lcm is that it does not adequately account for heterogeneity in responses across households the authors model mitigates this criticism leveled at the lcm they then compare their model with the traditional lcm and the equivalent continuous mixture random effects models in

dynamics of fine wine and asset prices evidence from short and long run co movements this article examines short and long term price linkages among the majority of fine wine and equity markets over the period of 2003 to 2012 we do not consider the price index liv ex 100 or 500 as is typically undertaken in previous studies but rather examine the auction price series of the world s most traded wine vintage pairs 5 bordeaux first growth 8 bordeaux second growth 5 burgundy 3 rhone 4 italian 5 californian 1 australian and 1 portuguese a global equity index is also included using the morgan stanley capital international world cointegration procedures the granger non causality test and ecm are used to analyse short and long run relationships among these markets the results indicate a strong effect of financial markets on wine prices and short term causality for certain wines moreover the findings indicate short run causality between the wines themselves revealing a leader exogenous or follower endogenous status of certain fine wines in price dynamics and also long ru

financial innovation in a general equilibrium model abstract we develop a model of financial innovation in which intermediaries can issue new financial securities against collateral in the form of standard securities intermediaries have to market their innovations and marketing is costly we show that the equilibrium asset structure may exhibit redundancies as frequently observed on financial markets we give conditions for efficiency of financial innovation and show that with small innovation costs the indeterminacy of equilibrium allocations has small utility consequences journal of economic literature classification numbers d52 g10

trying to explain home bias in equities and consumption investors hold a substantially larger proportion of their wealth portfolios in domestic assets than standard portfolio theory would suggest a phenomenon called equity home bias in the absence of this bias investors would optimally diversify domestic output risk using foreign equities therefore consumption growth rates would tend to co move across countries even when output growth rates do not empirically however consumption growth rates tend to have a lower correlation across countries than do output growth rates a phenomenon i call consumption home bias in this paper i discuss these two biases and their potential relationship as suggested by the literature

a probabilistic choice model for market segmentation and elasticity structure marketing scholars commonly characterize market structure by studying the patterns of substitution implied by brand switching though the approach is useful it typically ignores the destabilizing

financial market innovation and security design an introduction abstract the article describes in the context of theory and practice this special issue of the journal of economic theory on financial market innovation and security design the main focus is on security design in incomplete financial markets possibly with asymmetrically informed traders we first survey the general equilibrium literature which emphasizes the spanning role of securities we then provide a unified framework encompassing the literature that employs a cara guassian setting to study the impact of financial innovation on risk sharing and information aggregation journal of economic literature classification numbers g10 d52

optimal innovation of futures contracts this article presents a simple model of the innovation of new futures contracts by transaction volume maximizing futures exchanges in incomplete markets under uncertainty with mean variance preferences and proportional transactions costs we characterize the set of nash equilibria for a number of exchanges simultaneously or sequentially choosing contracts the optimal monopolistic contract design is shown to be pareto optimal an example shows the failure of pareto optimality for aparticularnash equilibrium likewise in a monopolistic multiperiod setting an example shows the failure of pareto optimality given an incentive for the exchange to induce turnover

on the recoverability of choice behaviors with random coefficients choice models in the context of limited data and unobserved effects random coefficients choice models are seeing widespread adoption in marketing research partly because of their ability to generate household level parameter estimates with limited data however the power of such models may tempt researchers to trust that they continue to produce reasonable estimates when in fact either model misspecification or insufficient data limits the models ability to recover household level parameters successfully if household level choice behaviors are not recovered successfully managerial decisions such as marketing mix planning and targeting direct marketing segmentation and forecasting may not produce the desired results this study addresses the following questions first can random coefficients choice models correctly identify markets characterized by preference and response heterogeneity state dependence the use of alternative decision heuristics that result in reduced choice sets and combinations of these effects if so how much data is required and is this realistic given the size of data sets typically used in marketing analyses which model selection criteria should be used to identify these markets when there is spurious market identification which parameters contribute to the spurious result an extensive simulation experiment is conducted wherein random coefficients logit models with varying specifications of parameter heterogeneity state dependence effects and choice set heterogeneity are applied to 128 experimental conditions the results show which types of markets can be identified reliably and which cannot based on the results of the simulation the authors develop a model selection heuristic that identifies the correct market in 81 of the experimental conditions in contrast strict application of the best model selection criterion alone results in correct market identification in at most 34 of experimental conditions interestingly we find that the amount of data number of households or number of purchases per household does not affect our ability to identify the correct market type with this heuristic so there is a good chance of identifying the correct market type even when little data is available

a fuzzy set model of search and consideration with an application to an online market several two stage choice models consideration stage plus choice stage have been proposed in the marketing literature we extend this literature by developing a more general model that incorporates how consumer search influences the degree to which they consider various brands to test the validity and value of our model we operationalized it with data obtained from peapod an online grocer where we tracked consumers search processes we demonstrate that our model performs better than competing models on all the key criteria new choice models such as the ones proposed here are necessary for deriving managerially relevant understanding of choice behavior in online markets our empirical results suggest that consumers search both their internal memory and external information at the store to determine the degree to which they consider various brands consumers are also heterogeneous with respect to their capability to process external information for some consumers external information search dramatically increases the degree to which they consider various brands but for others it has little impact on their consideration we also find that certain features e g personal lists reduce consideration set sizes whereas other features e g sort increase consideration set sizes

to save or savor the rate of return to storing wine for 28 000 one can buy a jaguar xj6 308 shares of mcdonnell douglas stock a one tenth interest in an oklahoma gas well 4i years of undergraduate life at stanford or one bottle of chateau lafite vintage 1806 that s 1 166 67 an ounce at this moment gold is worth only 275 an ounce and you can t smell or drink it saturday review of literature 1979 p 38 nine years ago 70 could persuade a paris restaurant to part with this same bottle of liquid gold goldwyn 1979 p 4 but for balance admire the growth of a slightly more pedestrian vintage a 1959 beaulieu estate bottled cabernet today a case of it may be purchased for 1 200 for the more modest budget 950 will buy a case of 1970 beaulieu george latour private reserve cabernet all this goes to show that wine the right wine in the last 10 years has provided the prudently daring investor with a spectacular return the virtues of wine as a liquid asset have been tested recently by krasker 1979 krasker cannot reject a hypothesis that wine offers no extraordinary rate of return the wine investor can expect no greater return than that which accrues to riskless assets while krasker finds the concept that an investment in wine outperforms treasury bills in nominal return incompatible with the way economists believe most assets are priced his result seems counter to intuition wine as a subcategory of riskless assets seems contrary to wine s very nature wine is a living substance its maturation process extends well beyond the bottling day lasting as long as 20 40 years in the case of some reds while a few others refuse to retire at 65 but the proper age

price determination for a collectible good the case of rare united states coins researchers investigating markets for collectible goods such as paintings 1 2 6 12 antique furniture 7 stradivarius violins 14 wine 8 10 and postage stamps 15 often report rates of return to holding collectibles that are both low 2 6 7 8 12 and volatile 6 7 8 12 baumol 2 argues that the market for paintings of noted deceased artists has no long run equilibrium price because the market is characterized by infrequent trades of unique assets which are available in fixed supply his empirical analysis supports the idea that paintings experience unpredictable price changes and highly dispersed rates of return with a mean near zero in contrast anderson 1 reports estimated equations explaining approximately 60 percent of the variation in log prices of paintings based on the size of painting date of sale and a constructed measure of repute of the artist other researchers have examined markets with more frequent transactions and greater substitutability among the goods traded schnitzel 15 finds that year to year changes in prices of postage stamps are predictable based on age of the stamp and quantity printed ross and zondervan 14 report that variations in quality affect prices but not rates of return of stradivarius violins a result which is consistent with user benefits being invariant with respect to quality among markets for collectibles the market for rare u s coins is active and well organized and faces the potential for increased federal regulation annual sales are estimated at 5 billion 16 two wall street brokerages recently have formed multimillion dollar limited partnerships to invest in rare coins and some coins now are traded on electronic exchanges 5 these innovations have come amid calls for increased regulation to guard against fraudulent grading of coins 5 16 a major determinant of the price of a collectible coin is its grade a measure of condition reflecting qualities such as sharpness of features regulators accuse coin dealers of defrauding collectors of millions of dollars annually by assigning higher than warranted grades to the coins dealers sell while downgrading coins they buy for example the federal trade commission ftc

optimality of incomplete markets abstract in a static exchange economy where the traders initial endowments are risky the optimality of the financial structure is studied when markets are incomplete only financial structures with the same number of assets are compared a market structure is optimal when in a particular economy it yields an allocation of risks which cannot be pareto dominated through the implementation of any other market structure in a linear gaussian setup the optimal market structures are shown to span an eigenspace of a matrix which combines the risk exposures of the participants in the market approximately weighted by a measure of their risk aversions journal of economic literature classification numbers d60 g10

optimal financial market integration and security design 1 we study 2 period pure exchange capital asset pricing model capm economies with incomplete financial markets and restricted participation we characterize the optimal financial market structure and efficient innovations consisting of both the introduction of new assets and the integration of segmented markets welfare gains from innovations are maximal when the endowments of affected agents are negatively correlated uncoordinated innovations lead to efficient market structures if all assets have identical participation structure or the markets being integrated trade identical assets however coordination failure in the introduction of new assets may result when assets have participation structures that overlap only partially

a random coefficients logit brand choice model applied to panel data a random coefficients logit model that allows for unobserved heterogeneity in brand preferences and in the responses to marketing variables is empirically investigated using household level panel data the unknown underlying distribution of unobserved heterogeneity is approximated by a discrete distribution the results reveal that there is significant unobserved heterogeneity across households and that ignoring its effects results in a downward bias in the parameter estimates of the marketing variables it is therefore important to account for heterogeneity in both preferences and responses in the absence of any a priori knowledge about the nature of heterogeneity across households

investigating heterogeneity in brand preferences in logit models for panel data in analyzing panel data the issue of heterogeneity across households is an important consideration if heterogeneity is present but is ignored in the analysis it will result in biased and inconsi

removing heterogeneity bias from logit model estimation this paper introduces a new estimation procedure for the logit model that is an extension of a conditional estimation procedure developed by chamberlain chamberlain g 1978 on the use of panel data working paper harvard university 1 52 chamberlain g 1980 analysis of covariance with qualitative data rev econom stud 47 225 238 the method eliminates heterogeneity bias which is present in the estimates produced by traditional estimation techniques it improves the goodness of fit and explanatory power of these models while incorporating purchase event feedback

models of health plan choice this paper considers alternative approaches to accounting for consumer heterogeneity in econometric models of health plan choice in particular we compare and contrast approaches used by health economists and marketing researchers to explicitly allow for consumer heterogeneity in assessment of plan provider quality and characteristics as a result we are able to identify conditions under which approaches utilized by health economists are preferred over those utilized by marketing researchers and vice versa for example we find that in the absence of data on prior year choice which is often the case of models estimated in the health economics literature it would be valuable to estimate random coefficient models which have not been estimated in such works and in the presence of data on prior year choice which is often the case of models estimated in the marketing literature a model wherein consumer characteristics simply interact with plan specific constants and premium and which has not been estimated in that literature offers better fits than random coefficient semi parametric random coefficient and latent class models which have been previously estimated in that literature the model offers important managerial insights useful for targeting benefits of various plans to different customer segments

politics economics and the regulation of direct interstate shipping in the wine industry in 1986 california passed legislation restricting the direct importation of wine from another state by california residents unless the originating state allowed direct shipment from california wineries to residents in that state the result has been a patchwork of direct shipment regulations across states we examine how various economic and public interest factors affect the likelihood that a state adopts a change in its direct shipment regulation and the nature of that change our results suggest that private and public sector economic considerations lie at the root of direct shipment regulations in the wine industry

heterogeneity and fine wine prices application of the quantile regression approach this study addresses the price heterogeneity of the five first growths of bordeaux we apply the quantile regression qr approach with market segmentation based on wine bottle price quantiles we

modeling multiple sources of state dependence in random utility models a distributed lag approach we propose a utility theoretic brand choice model that accounts for four different sources of state dependence 1 effects of lagged choices structural state dependence 2 effects of serially correlated error terms in the random utility function habit persistence type 1 3 effects of serial correlations between utility maximizing alternatives on successive purchase occasions of a household habit persistence type 2 and 4 effects of lagged marketing variables carryover effects our proposed model also allows habit persistence to be a function of lagged marketing variables while accommodating the effects of unobserved heterogeneity in household choice parameters this model is more flexible than existing state dependence models in marketing and labor econometrics using scanner panel data we find structural state dependence to be the most important source of state dependence marketing mix elasticities are systematically understated if state dependence effects are incompletely accounted for the seetharaman and chintagunta 1998 model is shown to recover spurious variety seeking effects while overstating habit persistence effects ignoring habit persistence type 1 leads to an underestimation while ignoring habit persistence type 2 leads to an overestimation of structural state dependence effects we find lagged promotions to have carryover effects on habit persistence ignoring one or more sources of state dependence underestimates the total incremental impact of a sales promotion we draw implications for manufacturer pricing

the rate of return on investment in wine joyce p jacobsen is wine an investment alternative to stocks and bonds first we review prior studies regarding the pecuniary rate of return to wine and other alternatives to financial assets next we calculate the rate of return to holding red bordeaux wine from 1986 to 1996 using a repeat sale regression finally we contrast the financial performance of wine both on an aggregate basis and for various portfolios to that of other asset classes we conclude that wine does not yield greater returns than financial assets especially when the volatility of returns and transaction costs are taken into account jel d44 g12 c43 investments in art and other collectibles are generally deemed profitable but empirical examinations of the relative attractiveness of noncapital good tangible assets relative to financial instruments have shown that art and other collectibles are not sound investments from a financial point of view there is a large body of literature that calculates the rate of return on alternative asset classes and concludes with few exceptions that nonfinancial assets are not good financial investments however in the case of wine the evidence is mixed collectors often maintain that the pecuniary rate of return on investments in wine is comparable to or exceeds investments in stocks and bonds and economists have not reached a consensus vis a vis the relative attractiveness of wine in this article we consider 1 how investment grade wine compares to other alternative asset classes and 2 whether wine might be a viable investment alternative to stocks or bonds first we consider the results drawn from empirical investigations regarding the relative attractiveness of paintings and other collectibles as investments next we review prior econometric evidence regarding the pecuniary rate of return to wine finally we calculate the return on wine from 1986 to 1996 using a repeat sale regression and contrast wine s financial performance both for an aggregate portfolio and for selected submarkets to that of other asset classes i most investments in collectibles cannot be justified as purely monetary there is a virtual consensus in the economic literature of the arts that financial assets dominate less traditional tangible assets as investments because art and other collectibles embody a compensating differential in the form of a user benefit burton and jacobsen 1999 offer a survey of this literature that finds that most quantitative examinations of the markets for art and other collectibles have concluded that the high risk low return characteristics of noncapital good tangible assets effectively proscribe retaining them as financial investments a seminal study by baumol 1986 for example estimated the real annual rate of return on paintings over the period 1652 to 1961 to be only 0 55 frey and pommerehne 1989 who subsequently extended baumol s data set up through 1987 and expanded it by including sales from more countries also concluded that paintings were relatively unattractive investment instruments yielding only about 1 4 between 1635 and 1949 and 1 6 between 1950 and 1987 on an annual inflation adjusted basis more recent studies have only confirmed that investments in other forms of art and collectibles compare unfavorably to investments in traditional financial assets especially when the rate of return is risk adjusted 1 pesando 1993 for example constructed a price index of modem prints over 1977 to 1992 and estimated that the average real annual rate of return on an aggregate print portfolio was only 1 51 well below the concomitant real return on stocks moreover pesando noted that the risk as measured by the standard deviation of real returns associated with investing in prints was comparable to or even exceeded investments in stocks or long term bonds ii but what about wine

parameter bias from unobserved effects in the multinomial logit model of consumer choice abstract over the past two decades validation of choice models has focused on predictive validity rather than parameter bias in real world validation of choice models true parameter values are unknown so examination of parameter bias is not possible in contrast the main focus of this study is parameter bias in simulated scanner panel choice data with known parameter values study of parameter bias enables the assessment of a fundamental issue not addressed in the choice modeling literature the extent to which the logit choice model is capable of distinguishing unobserved effects that give rise to persistence in observed choices e g heterogeneity and state dependence although econometric theory provides some information about the causes of bias the extent of such bias in typical scanner data applications remains unclear the authors present an extensive simulation study that provides information on the extent of bias resulting from the misspecification of four unobserved effects that receive fr

an empirical comparison of logit choice models with discrete versus continuous representations of heterogeneity abstract currently there is an important debate about the relative merits of models with discrete and continuous representations of consumer heterogeneity in a recent jmr study andrews ansari and currim 2002 hereafter aac compared metric conjoint analysis models with discrete and continuous representations of heterogeneity and found no differences between the two models with respect to parameter recovery and prediction of ratings for holdout profiles models with continuous representations of heterogeneity fit the data better than models with discrete representations of heterogeneity the goal of the current study is to compare the relative performance of logit choice models with discrete versus continuous representations of heterogeneity in terms of the accuracy of household level parameters fit and forecasting accuracy to accomplish this goal the authors conduct an extensive simulation experiment with logit models in a scanner data context using an experimental design based on aac and other

welfare gains from international risksharing abstract this paper uses consumption data to compute yet unexploited welfare gains that can be achieved through risksharing among twenty oecd countries there is both aggregate national consumption risk and nondiversifiable individual specific risk countries engage in an optimal risksharing arrangement to pool risk associated with the aggregate consumption endowment streams welfare gains are associated with reduced consumption variability and with the international pricing of the consumption streams of individual countries the paper considers the standard vnm time additive preferences as well as nonexpected utility and habit formation preferences large unexploited gains are found under all sets of preferences leading to an international risksharing puzzle

modeling multiple sources of heterogeneity in multinomial logit models methodological and managerial issues we offer a framework to specify and estimate various sources of heterogeneity in multinomial logit brand choice models we let each brand specific intercept and each parameter of the explanatory variable vector vary randomly across households in addition we distinguish loyal households from the rest our results suggest that incorporating multiple sources of heterogeneity improves the model fit and suggests higher impact of marketing mix elements on brand choice we highlight the importance of incorporating multiple sources of heterogeneity the model we implement yields valuable managerial insights

group decision making with uncertain outcomes unpacking child parent choice of the high school track predicting group decisions under uncertainty requires disentangling individual members utilities over the consequences of choice their expectations for uncertain outcomes and their choice process as a group i estimate simple bayesian models of child parent choice of high school track with subjective risk and unilateral or bilateral nonstrategic decisions by combining families actual choices with novel survey information about children s and parents subjective probabilities over choice consequences their individually preferred choices and their decision roles a set of policy counterfactuals confirms the importance of introducing the beliefs and decision roles of individual members in models and policy analysis of group decisions

a dynamic analysis of market structure based on panel data internal market structure analysis infers brand positions in an attribute space from preference and choice data given a market in which consumers have heterogeneous tastes for attributes previous market structure models have adopted a static framework e g elrod 1988 chintagunta 1994 elrod and keane 1995 furthermore they assumed that consumer perceptions of brand attributes do not vary across consumers yet these approaches may render inaccurate representations of market structure if there is state dependence in consumer choice behavior this paper attempts to incorporate consumer choice dynamics into market structure models by specifying the source of choice dynamics explicitly in particular the process by which past purchases affect current choices is modeled in a framework which captures both consumer habit persistence and variety seeking behavior more specifically consumer preferences for brand attributes are modeled to depend on the attributes of brands bought on the previous purchase occasion furthermore the modeling approach adopted incorporates heterogeneity in both consumer preferences and perceptions of brand attributes the audience of this paper includes practitioners and academics interested in understanding consumer choice processes and inferring market structure from consumer choice data the proposed models are estimated on nielsen scanner panel data for margarine peanut butter yogurt and liquid detergent using simulated maximum likelihood techniques the empirical results suggest that accounting for choice dynamics improves both in sample and out of sample fit the results indicate that the average consumer is habit persistent in all the product categories studied this result is consistent with the findings of kannan and sanchez 1994 who conducted an aggregate analysis of consumer variety seeking behavior across product categories however the results obtained in this paper suggest that consumers are heterogeneous with respect to the processes by which past purchases affect current purchases these results provide strong evidence for habit persistence and variety seeking in brand attributes to be the behavioral source of consumer choice dynamics in food categories thus consumer tastes utility weights seem to be affected by the attributes of the brands consumed in the past given the empirical result that a large proportion of consumers are habit persistent this suggests that tastes are reinforced by the brand attributes consumed in the past the empirical results also show that not accounting for state dependence in market structure models for panel data may produce misleading results that is depending on consumer behavior patterns models that do not account for state dependence may distort the true nature of competition among brands more specifically the results confirm the expectation that if there is habit persistence that is if consumer tastes are reinforced by attributes of brands consumed in the past models that do not capture this choice dynamics will overestimate the distance between similar brands furthermore the policy experiments conducted suggest that 1 static models overestimate the short run impact of a price cut on the sales of the brand on promotion 2 price cuts hurt the sales of the more similar brands more and 3 free samples affect relatively less similar brands the most finally this paper studies variety seeking and habit persistence across brands over purchase occasions however variety seeking behavior may also involve the purchase of a portfolio of brands or items at a purchase occasion consumers may buy multiple items knowing that prior to the next trip they may want to consume different items simanson 1990 walsh 1995 this type of behavior can be modeled within the context of dynamic expected utility maximization with forward looking consumers the development and estimation of market structure models that include forward looking consumers who maximize expected utility over a planning horizon incorporating their future tastes and needs and shopping for an inventory of brands remain an important future research issue

world income components measuring and exploiting risk sharing opportunities a method is constructedfor decomposing the variance of changes in incomes in the world into components to indicate the most important risk sharing opportunities among people of the world a constant absolute risk premium carp model an intertemporal general equilibrium model of the world is presented to permit optimal contract design for a contract designer maximizing a social welfare function the optimal contracts maximize the equilibrium world real interest rate securities are defined in terms of eigenvectors of a transformed variance matrix the method is applied using penn world table data on the g 7 countries 1950

modeling heterogeneity and state dependence in consumer choice behavior in frequently purchased consumer goods markets consumer brand choices exhibit substantial persistence across purchase occasions in this article i estimate a choice model that admits of both heterogeneity in preferences and true state dependence as sources of this persistence using nielsen scanner data on ketchup i find evidence for true state dependence in the choice process even after controlling for a rich heterogeneity structure simulation of the model indicates that the long term effect of a promotion induced purchase on future purchase probabilities is positive but small

a framework for investigating habits the hand of the past and heterogeneity in dynamic brand choice in this paper we develop a general class of dynamic brand choice models called lightning bolt lb models which are consistent with the theory of random utility maximization of consumer choice behavior the underlying random utility process is markov and the inter temporal evolution of the utility maximizing brand choice process is also markov the models permit parsimonious parameterizations of the random utility process in brand choices with the resulting switching probabilities being functionally related to explanatory variables the model allows for structural state dependence feedback habit persistence inertia and unobserved heterogeneity the theoretical development shows that several well known stochastic brand choice models can be deduced from random utility maximization theory from a managerial perspective the usefulness of the proposed model stems from its ability to separate out the effects of habits state dependence and heterogeneity strong state dependence effects imply incentives for inducing trial of a brand e g product sampling in contrast with state dependence a strong habit persistence effect may be indicative of buyer behavior where inducement of trial of a different brand may not be sufficient to maintain a sustained defection of the consumer from the habitually purchased brand to the trial brand failure to distinguish between these two effects has important implications for example a model that only accounts for state dependence effects would in the presence of only habit persistence incorrectly attribute it to state dependence based on this the manager could decide to embark on an expensive sampling program that might prove ineffective due to the absence of state dependence it is also important to distinguish between the effects of unobserved heterogeneity and state dependence in the absence of true state dependence failing to account for unobservable variations across households such as differences in price sensitivities results in the temporally persistent unobservable elements showing up as state dependence in the model hence a manager may incorrectly opt for sampling as the appropriate marketing action whereas a couponing or price promotion strategy should have been preferred we estimate the model parameters using the ac nielsen household scanner panel data set on catsup purchases further we investigate empirical techniques for overcoming the initial conditions problem that affects many dynamic models of brand choice through simulation analysis using the estimated parameters we show that the calculated profitability of a promotion must take into account the multi period impact due to state dependence further we demonstrate how ignoring heterogeneity can result in spurious state dependence thereby making marketing tactics such as product sampling appear far more attractive than they actually are specifically the model that accounts only for habit persistence and state dependence effects predicts a share increase of 2 4 points through sampling for one of the brands in the empirical analysis once the effects of unobserved heterogeneity are accounted for however this number drops precipitously to 0 3 while even this low number might fulfill the objectives of the brand manager it ensures that expectations are not eight times that number it is important to note that this paper is a first attempt at analyzing the three fundamental dimensions of dynamic brand choice behavior our formulation represents a reduced form approach as opposed to a structural approach other limitations of the model include our focus on time invariant choice sets extensions of the model to situations where choice sets vary over time are possible but are difficult another limitation is the dependence on multivariate extreme value distributions an alternative would be to use multivariate normal distributions i e a probit like structure which has certain useful properties a comparison of the two approaches would be useful empirical extensions of the model to allow for higher order processes and nested logit type model structures could also be fruitful explicitly incorporating variety seeking behavior in the model would further enrich the theoretical framework proposed in this paper

the price of wine abstract using historical price records for bordeaux premiers crus we examine the impact of aging on wine prices and the long term investment performance of fine wine in line with the predictions of an illustrative model young maturing wines from high quality vintages provide the highest financial returns past maturity famous ch teaus deliver growing non pecuniary benefits to their owners using an arithmetic repeat sales regression over 1900 2012 we estimate a real financial return to wine investment net of storage costs of 4 1 which exceeds bonds art and stamps returns to wine and equities are positively correlated finally we find evidence of in sample return predictability

accounting for heterogeneity and nonstationarity in a cross sectional model of consumer purchase behavior when calibrating a brand choice model cross sectionally a measure of brand loyalty is often introduced into the utility function to account for differences in utility across households and over time one of the most widely used measures of brand loyalty proposed by guadagni and little 1983 is an exponential smoothing model of past choice behavior by the household in this study we argue that the exponential smoothing model of brand loyalty cannot properly distinguish between sources of variation in utility due to heterogeneity across households and sources of variation due to nonstationarity within household over time we introduce a new measure of brand loyalty derived from a nonstationary dirichlet multinomial choice model in which heterogeneity and nonstationarity are handled distinctly

limited choice sets local price response and implied measures of price competition it is becoming increasingly evident that a consumer s brand choice decision in low involvement categories does not involve full search evaluation and comparison of price information of all brands available at point of purchase global price response the authors propose a two stage choice process in which the consumer first identifies a subset of brands within the universal set of brands called the choice set and then evaluates only those brands that are in the choice set relative to one another to select a single brand the authors find that consistent with reports of the extent of external price search of consumers response to shelf price variations is limited to the brands in the choice set local price response their results indicate that employing the assumption of global price response may lead to biased estimates of price elasticity and derived measures of clout and vulnerability to enable a managerially meaningful and useful assessment of a brand s competitive clout and vulnerability the

optimal design of securities under asymmetric information a firm must decide what security to sell to raise external capital to finance a profitable investment opportunity there is ex ante asymmetry of information regarding the probability distribution of cash flow generated by the investment in this setting we derive necessary and sufficient conditions for a security to be optimal uniquely optimal that is for pooling at this security to be an the unique equilibrium outcome using these conditions we show that the debt contract is uniquely optimal if and only if cash flows are ordered by strict conditional stochastic dominance finally we derive an equivalence relationship between optimal security designs and designs that minimize mispricing