the public private wage differential in a poor urban economy the occupational structure of wages is generally more compressed in high than in low income countries the role of non market forces in determining the structure of wages is of interest for reasons of allocative efficiency as well as for distributional concerns this paper considers how wage differentials may be generated between the public and private sectors of a developing economy data from a 1971 household survey of the tanzanian urban wage labor force are used to determine the pattern of wage differences across employer groups after standardizing by worker characteristics public sector employees are found to have earned a substantial wage premium over workers employed in the private sector the non market character of these differentials is examined in light of a number of hypotheses on public sector wage determination

public sector pay and corruption measuring bribery from micro data abstract this study provides the first systematic measure of bribery using micro level data on reported earnings household spending and asset holdings we use the compensating differential framework and the estimated sectoral gap in reported earnings and expenditures to identify the size of unobserved unofficial compensation i e bribes of public sector employees in the case of ukraine we find that public sector employees receive 24 32 less wages than their private sector counterparts the gap is particularly large at the top of the wage distribution at the same time workers in both sectors have essentially identical level of consumer expenditures and asset holdings that unambiguously indicate the presence of non reported compensation in the public sector using the conditions of labor market equilibrium we develop an aggregate measure of bribery and find that the lower bound estimate of the extent of bribery in ukraine is between 460 million and 580 million u s dollars 0 9 1 2 of ukraine s gdp in 2003

two remarks on the property rights literature we first point out that the recent property rights literature is based on three assumptions 1 that contracts are always subject to renegotiation 2 that the exercise of a property right confers a private benefit and 3 that parties are risk neutral building on hart moore 1999 we provide conditions under which an optimal contract consists of nothing more than an assignment of property rights we also examine the robustness of some of the literature s standard predictions about asset ownership to the introduction of mechanisms for eliciting parties ex post willingness to pay for the assets such as options or financial markets to illustrate the issue we revisit the hart moore 1990 proposition that joint ownership is suboptimal and argue that ownership by a single party is dominated by joint ownership with put options

the mirage of floating exchange rates this note summarizes some of the highlights of my longer paper with guillermo calvo fear of floating many emerging market countries have suffered financial crises one view blames soft pegs for these crises adherents to that view suggest that countries move to corner solutions hard pegs or floating exchange rates we analyze the behavior of exchange rates reserves and interest rates to assess whether there is evidence that country practice is moving toward corner solutions we focus on whether countries that claim they are floating are indeed doing so we find that countries that say they allow their exchange rate to float mostly do not there seems to be an epidemic case of fear of floating

why have private savings rates in the united states and canada diverged abstract one of the central questions in macroeconomics for many years has been whether government policy can affect private saving rates and if so to what extent and through what channels the question has remained controversial because as with other macroeconomic questions experiments to check divergent hypotheses cannot be deliberately performed so economists must rely upon the often dubious evidence from the limited experiments with which nature and history have endowed us this paper discusses the results of an exceptionally good natural experiment that has been provided by canada and the u s over the past thirty five years after moving in tandem for almost twenty five years american and canadian private saving rates have diverged dramatically over the last decade the primary conclusion emerging from our analysis of this phenomenon is that tax policies can have a potent impact on private savings behavior differences in tax structures and in the interactions of taxation and inflation appear to be important factors explaining the divergent behavior of the american and canadian private savings rates recognizing the importance of asset revaluations caused partially but not entirely by tax effects also helps to explain the different behavior of u s and canadian savings there may also be a relationship between government deficits and the private savings differential

the link between inflation and output variability in canada one of the costs of high levels of inflation may be misperceptions of relative prices and excessive volatility in sectoral output this paper therefore examines the relationship between the level of inflation and sectoral output growth variability in canada from 1961 1 to 1995 4 despite the substantial variation in inflation over this period the authors find little evidence of an impact of the level of inflation on variability of sectoral output growth their results indicate that the oil price and the real exchange rate are significantly correlated with the variability of output growth across sectors

wage rigidity in canadian collective bargaining agreements the authors search information on the provisions of 10 947 wage contracts signed in the canadian unionized sector between 1976 and 1999 for evidence of downward nominal wage rigidity the disinclination of wages to fall in nominal dollars below their established level over the sample period real wage reductions were common but nominal wage reductions were rare the probability of downward nominal wage rigidity increased substantially during low inflation periods during such periods apparently there was no reduction in the incidence of real wage cuts but the magnitude of those cuts was modest suggesting a lesser ability of wages to adjust to labor market conditions than at other times

a switching regression model for wage determinants in the public and private sectors of a developing country governments in less developed countries face severe budgetary constraints given that public sector employment is a large part of modern sector employment the government wage bill h as come under increased scrutiny the central question is how do gove rnment wages compare with those in the private sector in this paper the authors develop and estimate a model to answer this question an important aspect of this model is the endogenous treatment of sector choice the estimation results full information maximum likelihood sound a strong warning against the use of ordinary least squares est imates that are based on sector specific samples data are from the i vory coast copyright 1988 by mit press

contractibility and the design of research agreements we analyze how contractibility affects contract design a major concern when designing research agreements is that researchers may use their funding to subsidize other projects we show that when research activities are not contractible an option contract is optimal the financing firm obtains the option to terminate the agreement and in case of termination broad property rights the threat of termination deters researchers from cross subsidization and the cost of exercising the termination option deters the financing firm from opportunistic termination we test this prediction using 580 biotechnology research agreements contracts with termination options are more common when research is non contractible

how do plural sourcing firms make and buy the impact of supplier portfolio design this paper uses the notion of contracting strategy to advance research on plural sourcing we develop and test a theoretical framework to explain how plural sourcing firms strike the make and buy b

escalators and elevators a phillips curve for keynesians the negatively sloped long run phillips curve remains an issue of contention this paper presents a theoretical model of the phillips curve in which nominal demand growth reduces unemployment caused by stochastic shifts of demand between sectors the model can be understood through the following metaphor keynesian economies are escalator economies in which markets adjust back to equilibrium slowly so that nominal demand growth presents a means of speeding up the escalator process contrastingly new classical economies as set forth by e g lucas 1973 are elevator economies in which adjustment is instantaneous consequently there is no role for nominal demand growth in the adjustment process and to the extent that policy sponsored nominal demand growth is uncertain it may actually disrupt the economy by sending the elevator to the wrong floor

speculative profit opportunities in the canadian foreign exchange market 1974 78 this paper shows that a number of simple theoretically based exchange rate models could have been used to speculate profitably in the canada united states exchange market over the period 1974 78 and that these unexploited profits were surprisingly large estimated models and autoregressive forecasts of their explanatory variables based only on information available at each point in time were used to take uncovered positions based on the forecasted direction of forward rate error these unexploited profits provide strong evidence of market inefficiency and or the existence of a time varying risk premium possibilites de profits speculatifs sur le marche des changes canada etats unis 1974 78 ce memoire montre qu on aurait pu faire bon usage d un certain nombre de modeles theoriques simples du taux de change entre le canada et les etats unis pour speculer avec profit sur le marche des changes canada etats unis entre 1974 et 1978 il semble que la taille de ces profits non encaisses est etonnamment considerable l auteur utilise des modeles et des previsions a partir de specifications autoregressives pour obtenir la valeur des variables independantes en utilisant seulement les renseignements disponibles a tout moment donne afin de definir les positions speculatives a decouvert suggerees par la direction prevue de l erreur dans le taux de change sur le marche a terme l existence de tels profits non exploites suggere l existence d inefficacite dans le inarche et ou l existence d une prime de risque qui varie avec le temps

have structural changes eliminated the out of sample ability of financial variables to forecast real activity after the mid 1980s evidence from the canadian economy this article evaluates how consistently reliable the information content of individual financial variables is for canada s future output growth we estimate the timing of structural changes in linear growth models and check robustness to specification changes multiple breaks and business cycle asymmetry our simulated out of sample forecast evaluation strategy using the mean square error f type mse f and the new encompassing enc new tests shows that the leading information content of most financial variables for canada s future gross domestic product gdp growth has deteriorated substantially after 1984 04 but the 1 3 year term spread exhibits a consistently reliable predictive ability at the 1 and 2 quarter horizons and has significant forecasting ability at the 8 quarter horizon also the real m1 money growth has regained its ability to forecast output growth since 1991 01

interest rates and the fisher effect in india an empirical study abstract this study throws light on the importance of adjustment lags variability of inflation changes in real income etc in the empirical estimation of fisher hypothesis variability of inflation has a significant negative impact on both short and long term interest rates in a developing economy like india the philips curve effect has not been operative in a developing country

outsourcing and unionization a tale of misallocated resistance resources while many believe the growth in outsourcing contributed to the decline in u s unionization up to the 1990s this argument has never been investigated systematically in this article we analyze the effect of outsourcing on unionization between 1973 and 1993 instrumental variables estimation shows outsourcing contributes to higher quasirents and industry productivity we find the union wage premium increases with the extent of outsourcing both for workers that are substitutable by outsourcing services and workers in jobs that are not substitutes of the tasks being outsourced finally we find no support for the claim that outsourcing reduces unionization jel j5 l2 l6

vertical integration and firm boundaries the evidence since ronald h coase s 1937 seminal paper a rich set of theories has been developed that deal with firm boundaries in vertical or input output structures in the last twenty five years empirical evidence that can shed light on those theories also has been accumulating we review the findings of empirical studies that have addressed two main interrelated questions first what types of transactions are best brought within the firm and second what are the consequences of vertical integration decisions for economic outcomes such as prices quantities investment and profits throughout we highlight areas of potential cross fertilization and promising areas for future work

inflation and productivity shocks abstract we examine whether sectoral productivity shock distributions are conditioned by inflation regimes we conclude that this is not the case our results have implications for the literature on downward nominal wage rigidity and on inflation as a labor market lubricant

on the performance of nominal income targeting as a strategy for monetary policy in a small open economy abstract there is a great deal of support for nominal income targeting in the literature on strategies for monetary policy in a closed economy framework is nominal income targeting equally attractive in a small open economy this paper compares nominal income targeting to alternative monetary policy rules in a stochastic macro model for a small open economy we find that both the weighting in the overall price level of the exchange rate and foreign prices and the elasticity of output supplied with respect to the real exchange rate are important factors in assessing the attractiveness of nominal income targeting in a small open economy where the size of both parameters is not negligible a rule targeting the overall price level may actually be preferred to nominal income targeting

fundamentals versus the leading index the forecasting of canada s output growth since 1991 an encompassing approach we evaluate the ability of statistics canada s composite leading index to forecast canada s real gross domestic product gdp growth rate in the backdrop of the duguay 1994 jme model and also the dynamic and the error correction variants of the duguay model that already include the fundamentals of the canadian business cycle the results show that integrating the index in these models substantially improve the in sample fit of the models and also provide an explanation for the perplexingly large influence of the us real gdp on aggregate spending in the canadian economy out of sample forecasts over the inflation targeting regime january 1991 april 2004 evaluated using the forecast encompassing tests confirm that the index contains an important amount of new information about the future growth rate quite apart from the information contained in the fundamentals

an econometric model of canadian monetary policy over the 1970s the last decade has witnessed the emergence of the bank of canada as a key participant in the arena of policy formation indeed the high profile of the governor and the bank has given rise to a considerable amount of discussion and debate over canadian monetary policy in both the popular media and academic journals i to a large extent this analysis has been essentially descriptive being based upon casual observations rather than a tightly formulated econometric model from the viewpoint of understanding the canadian economy over the 1970s there is a growing need to establish empirically the mechanisms of monetary policy in canada and to determine its impact upon such macroeconomic variables as real output the purpose of this paper is to specify and to estimate a simple model of canadian monetary policy over the seventies the model s focus is upon several prominent institutional details that are special to the operation of canadian monetary policy accordingly the model reflects the practice of the bank of canada in setting nominal interest rates and allowing the nominal money supply to be demand determined this modeling necessarily leads to an examination of the role and effects of the money targets adopted by the bank of canada since 1975

the ricardian approach to budget deficits persistent budget deficits have increased economists interest in theories and evidence about fiscal policy this paper develops the ricardian approach and contrasts it with standard models the discussion considers from major theoretical objections to ricardian equivalence finite lifetimes imperfect capital markets uncertainty about future taxes and incomes and the distorting effects of taxation the paper then considers empirical evidence on interest rates consumption and saving and current account deficits the conclusion is that the ricardian approach is a useful first order approximation and that this approach will probably become the benchmark model for assessing fiscal policy this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

what has 20 years of public private pay gap literature told us eastern european transitioning vs developed economies this paper surveys the literature on public private sector pay differentials based on 20 years of research in transitioning countries of eastern europe ee and compares the results with estimates obtained from developed market economies the majority of empirical studies from ee economies found evidence of public sector pay penalties during the period of economic transition from a communist to market based economy in developed economies however the average differential is usually around zero or positive the public sector pay inequality reducing effect relative to the private sector is greater in transitioning economies than in developed economies nevertheless there is evidence that the sign of the public sector pay gap as well as the relative public sector pay distribution change with the progress of economic transition towards those usually observed in developed economies different pay setting arrangements between private and public sectors and competition for workers seem to be major arguments for the existence of systematic pay differences between the two sectors

the real interest rate and aggregate supply abstract this paper analyzes the effects of the anticipated real interest rate on aggregate supply variables in a model where time to produce and variable capital utilization play a crucial role the potential importance of the present mechanism for business cycle theory lies in its ability to generate positive co movements of employment capital utilization labor productivity output and investment these variables are predicted to be affected negatively by the real interest rate reduced forms for output and employment are derived and tested with canadian data taking estimates of the real interest rate prevailing in the united states as the relevant exogenous price

relational incentive contracts standard incentive theory models provide a rich framework for studying informational problems but assume that contracts can be perfectly enforced this paper studies the design of self enforced relational contracts i show that optimal contracts often can take a simple stationary form but that self enforcement restricts promised compensation and affects incentive provision with hidden information it may be optimal for an agent to supply the same inefficient effort regardless of cost conditions with moral hazard optimal contracts involve just two levels of compensation this is true even if performance measures are subjective in which case optimal contracts terminate following poor performance jel c73 d82 l14

endogenous matching and the empirical determinants of contract form empirical work on contracts typically regresses contract choice on observed principal and agent characteristics if i some of these characteristics are unobserved or partially observed and ii there are incentives whereby particular types of agents end up contracting with particular types of principals estimated coefficients on the observed characteristics may be misleading we address this endogenous matching problem using a data set on agricultural contracts between landlords and tenants in early renaissance tuscany controlling for endogenous matching has an impact on parameters of interest and tenants risk aversion appears to have influenced contract choice

inflation and unemployment the world economy today is vastly different from the 1930s when seymour harris the chairman of this meeting infected me with his boundless enthusiasm for economics and his steadfast confidence in its capacity for good works economics is very different too both the science and its subject have changed and for the better since world war ii but there are some notable constants unemployment and inflation still preoccupy and perplex economists statesmen journalists housewives and everyone else the connection between them is the principal domestic economic burden of presidents and prime ministers and the major area of controversy and ignorance in macroeconomics i have chosen to review economic thought on this topic on this occasion partly because of its inevitable timeliness partly because of a personal interest reaching back to my first published work in 1941

earnings determination and labour markets gran santiago chile 1978 abstract the purpose of this study is twofold first to ascertain whether or not there are statistical differences in the structure of earnings functions among workers in various sectors of economic activity second to provide a test of the human capital approach in the explanation of earning differentials among wage earners using individual characteristics of full time wage earners in santiago the results show that the structures of earnings functions are not statistically different across sectors of economic activity also the application of a human capital model shows that about 50 percent of the relative dispersion of earnings may be attributed to differences in schooling and experience

the central government private sector wage differential since ehrenberg and schwarz 1986 there has been a plethora of articles investigating the relationship between public and private sector wages this article examines part of this post 1986 literature by reviewing articles that examine central government private sector wage differentials in sum most articles find that there is a premium paid to central government workers although the premium has declined in recent years in developing countries however the differential is usually negative women and minorities tend to do better in the public sector relative to their private sector counterparts the evidence on union premiums between sectors is mixed although the premium tends to be higher in the private sector however public sector union workers do not do much better than private sector union members the magnitude of all of the wage differentials discussed are sensitive to the estimation technique and data source used the most common explanation for the public sector wage premium is economic rent accruing to government workers although the public sector wage determination literature suggests that the differential is due to returns to political and vote producing activities not relevant in the private sector

examining equality between public and private sector wage distributions i introduction institutional political and economic factors all contribute to the determination of public sector wages for example the public sector is almost the only place in many advanced economies where unions continue to have a significant presence and an influential voice in setting wages and conditions of work political factors such as desiring to be a good employer may also influence the public sector wage structure as a good employer governments may offer low skilled workers higher rates of pay than they might get in the private sector on the other hand the public sector may be adverse to paying very skilled workers high rates of pay if the public does not like to see public sector workers earning too much economic factors such as spending and tax receipt limits can also affect the wage structure in the public sector all of these factors could make the public sector labor market be less efficient than that of the private sector from an economic perspective if government workers are paid more than private sector workers ceteris paribus then taxes are being wasted if private sector workers are paid more than government workers governments cannot recruit and retain appropriately skilled and productive workers to make the wage structures comparable many countries use surveys to ascertain the prevailing earnings levels for jobs in the private sector that are similar to public sector jobs however as fogel and lewin 1974 and gregory 1990 point out these survey methods are fraught with biases that may affect comparability of wages indeed there is little empirical evidence that wages between the two sectors are equal bender 1998 and gregory and borland 1999 survey the current literature on public private wage differentials and report that most studies find that central governments pay more on average compared to the private sector even after controlling for differences in the productive characteristics of workers furthermore as elliott et al 1999 find comparability in pay is currently important in the debates over public sector pay reform particularly in europe the institutional and political factors outlined above are waning in importance and economic considerations are seemingly coming to the fore because of perceptions of the overpayment of public sector workers and the desire to cut government wage bills politicians in these countries are devising policies to align average rates of pay by slowing the relative rate of public sector wage growth the policies should be different however if wage distributions are not the same indeed there is some evidence that the distributions differ as found in the double imbalance concept articulated by schager 1993 katz and krueger 1993 and elliott and duffus 1996 this imbalance is characterized by public sector workers at the lower end of the occupational hierarchy receiving the largest wage premia and workers at the upper end earning less than their private sector counterparts if the distributions are incomparable ceteris paribus mandating equal average rates of pay growth will not ensure comparability policies aimed at realigning wage structures at the ends of the distribution should then be followed to promote comparability this article compares public and private sector wage distributions and examines the extent to which focusing exclusively on differences in mean wages obscures the true nature of the wage relativities data from the british social change and economic life initiative sceli are employed to investigate comparability this data set is well suited for a comparability study given the range of personal and job characteristics that control for differences in public and private sector jobs moreover the data were collected in 1986 before substantial reform of public sector pay in the united kingdom reviewed in bender and elliott 1999 this offers a test to see if the reform policies were appropriate to promote wage comparability

union wage differentials in the public and private sectors a simultaneous equations specification the paper attempts to integrate new approaches to estimating union wage effects with the analysis of public private sector wage differentials estimates of the union differential in both public and private sectors allowing for the endogeneity of union status are presented the hypothesis that the recently measured rents to public sector employment primarily reflect the recent increase in unionization in that sector is examined and receives considerable empirical support there was evidence of positive selection into the union sector especially for private sector workers union status appears to be strongly influenced by the expected wage gain from joining the union sector

are low skill public sector workers really overpaid a quasi differenced panel data analysis public private sectoral wage differentials have been studied extensively using quantile regression techniques these typically find large public sector premiums at the bottom of the wage distribution this may imply that low skill workers are overpaid prompting concerns over efficiency we note several other potential explanations for this result and explicitly test whether the premium varies with skill using australian data we use a quasi differenced generalized method of moments gmm panel data model which has not been previously applied to this topic internationally unlike other available methods this technique identifies sectoral differences in returns to unobserved skill it also facilitates a decomposition of the wage gap into components explained by differences in returns to all observed and unobserved skills and by differences in their stock we find no evidence to suggest that the premium varies with skill one interpretation is that the compressed wage profile of the public sector ind

the effects of public sector hiring and compensation policies on the egyptian labor market this article examines the combined impact of the employment guarantee for graduates and public sector compensation policies on the egyptian labor market besides contributing to an unsustainable rate of growth in the government labor force these policies have encouraged queuing for government jobs contributed to high graduate unemployment rates and reduced the employment of graduates in the private sector despite substantial wage erosion in the public sector in recent years government wages when appropriately corrected for observed heterogeneity and sample selection are on a par with or higher than private sector wages especially for graduates when combined with the more desirable nonwage aspects of government jobs these compensation levels explain the attractiveness of public sector employment to graduates government pay scales are especially advantageous to female secondary school graduates who appear to face considerable discrimination in the private sector

schooling and the distribution of wages in the european private and public sectors international research has shown that schooling enhances within groups wage dispersion this assessment is typically based on private sector data and up to date the inequality implications of schooling have not been documented for the public sector this article uses recent data from eight european countries to explicitly take into account differences between the private and public sectors using quantile regression the article describes the effects of schooling on the location and shape of the conditional wage distribution in each sector while the average impact of schooling on wages is similar across sectors the impact of schooling on within groups dispersion is found to be substantially larger in the private sector than in the public sector this finding warns that the effects of the european educational expansion on overall within groups dispersion may be lower than previously thought

a selectivity model of employer size wage differentials this article investigates wage differentials for employees of different size firms utilizing an econometric methodology that allows the size of employer to be treated as endogenous in the context of discrete ordered employer size data as a result we are able to estimate i employer size wage gaps which are corrected for selectivity bias and ii the magnitude and direction of the selection bias decompositions of the resulting wage differentials are computed with comparisons of the conditional on sorting across employer size and unconditional wage gaps

a test of a keynesian alternative to hercowitz s aggregate supply theory abstract hercowitz 1986 estimates aggregate output and hours equations which are derived from a new classical model of aggregate supply under an alternative interpretation his aggregate supply equation is in fact an is curve with one omitted variable while his hours equation is best interpreted as an okun s law relationship when the hercowitz equations are nested in more general formulations which incorporate these alternatives the new classical restrictions are rejected resoundingly

terms of trade and real exchange rates the canadian evidence abstract this paper presents empirical evidence linking the canada us real exchange rate with the terms of trade using recently developed econometric methods for nondashstationary data we find that the real exchange rate is cointegrated with terms of trade variables and that causality runs from the terms of trade to the exchange rate we then construct a simple exchange rate equation that satisfies several specification tests and performs better than a random walk in post sample forecasting experiments the results suggest that much of the variation in the real exchange rate is attributable to movements in the terms of trade and that the influence of monetary factors is secondary

mcis and monetary policy abstract several central banks have recently adopted a monetary conditions index mci to guide monetary policy under floating exchange rates this paper discusses some analytical and practical questions raised by mcis furthermore using data for australia canada and new zealand which all operate monetary policy under floating rates and with an inflation target it estimates the responses of the central banks to exchange rate changes the results reveal clear differences between central banks while the reserve bank of australia does not appear to respond the bank of canada and the reserve bank of new zealand who use the mci as an operating target do respond quite strongly to movements in the exchange rate

viewpoint empirical research on firms boundaries empirical research on the determinants of firms boundaries has flourished over the past 25 years this article discusses the progress that has been made to date emphasizing the intellectual advances made by researchers in this literature during this period i stress empirical researchers important role in operationalizing theoretical concepts and relate how success on this dimension brings these concepts to bear on real life make or buy decisions i also discuss shortcomings in the current literature in particular the paucity of research on how variation in firms boundaries can affect economic outcomes and point to how and where such shortcomings might be overcome la recherche empirique sur les determinants des frontieres de l entreprise a fleuri au cours des derniers 25 ans cet article discute des progres accomplis en mettant l accent sur les avancees intellectuelles faites par les chercheurs dans la litterature specialisee durant cette periode on souligne le role important des chercheurs empiriques dans l operationnalisation des concepts theoriques et on explique comment les succes dans ce registre ont contribuea faire que ces concepts ont eu un impact sur les decisions de faire ou faire faire dans la vie reelle on discute aussi des deficiences de cette litterature en particulier la pauvrete des travaux de recherche sur l impact de la variation dans les frontieres des entreprises sur les rendements economiques et on suggere comment de telles deficiences pourraient etre corrigees

empirical evidence on the strength of the monetary transmission mechanism in canada an aggregate approach abstract this paper examines the transmission of monetary policy in canada it emphasizes the transmission through interest rates and the exchange rate rather than through changes in monetary aggregates and provides empirical evidence on the strength of these channels using a highly aggregated structural model implications of these structural equations for the dynamic effects of monetary policy are explored through a simulation analysis

do credit markets discipline sovereign borrowers evidence from u s states the degree to which credit markets discipline sovereign borrowers is investigated by estimating the supply curve for debt faced by u s states the results generally support an optimistic view of the market discipline hypothesis with credit markets providing incentives for sovereign borrowers to restrain borrowing while the risk premium on bond yields is estimated to increase only gradually at low levels of debt this effect appears to become much larger as debt rises there is also some evidence that credit markets may withhold access to credit at very high levels of debt copyright 1995 by ohio state university press

application specific r d capabilities and the advantage of incumbents evidence from the anticancer drug market this paper examines the proposition that during competence destroying technological changes incumbents are incompetent in researching in house a radically new technology they only retain market leadership if their undestroyed proprietary complementary assets compensate for their research incompetence in contrast to prior research i propose that there is not one but two sets of capabilities necessary to execute research and development r d sets that differ in their market specificity a technology specific set i e technological platforms that are non market specific and an application specific set i e knowledge of the application that is therefore market specific although all markets require both sets of capabilities to execute r d prior research has analyzed cases where the application was not as complex and therefore application specific capabilities did not represent strategic factors because at the start of a technological discontinuity application specific capabilities are undestroyed and have accrued only to incumbents when complex enough these capabilities can represent a source of competitive advantage for these firms even in the face of competition from diversifying entrants reusing previously acquired technological platforms i find evidence consistent with my proposition based on data on outcomes from drug discovery as estimated through clinical endpoints in phase i trials for firms competing in the anticancer drug market one of the most complex markets within pharmaceuticals as the market transitions into the biotechnology revolution the proposition in this paper implies that although technological platforms can help firms move across markets application specific r d capabilities can help firms retain leadership within a market across technological discontinuities

demand side and supply side explanations for barriers to labor market mobility in developing countries the case of guatemala the hypothesis of labor market segmentation is based on the existence of barriers to mobility between jobs because of these barriers wages of workers with similar characteristics are different from wages that would result from competition though the labor market segmentation hypothesis concerns mobility and access there have been few direct tests of the existence of restricted mobility in the labor market rather tests of labor market segmentation have focused on the presumed effects of restricted mobility in particular the presence of different reward structures across sectors is viewed as support for the segmentation hypothesis as a result much of the literature has concentrated on the appropriate comparison of the wages of workers by including controls for observable and unobservable characteristics

labor force participation and earnings determinants for women in the special conditions of developing countries abstract little systematic analysis exists regarding hypothesized special labor market conditions for women in developing countries this study explores such conditions in nicaragua major results are i small children affect participation less than in developed countries due to child care from extended families or while on informal sector jobs and the necessity for poor mothers to work ii schooling and experience have major roles affecting work sector and earnings but the primary school return is half that cited by the world bank iii other human capital variables particularly nutrition have some impact

bank loan portfolios and the canadian monetary transmission mechanism following a monetary tightening bank loans to consumers decrease this is true for both mortgage and non mortgage loans and it is true for a tightening by the bank of canada that is and is not a response to a tightening by the federal reserve system in contrast business loans increase following a monetary tightening the per verse response of business loans cannot be explained by an increase in the demand for funds due to a reduction in real activity these results are consistent with a change in bank portfolio behaviour in favour of business loans in response to a monetary tightening portefeuilles de prets bancaires et le mecanisme de transmission monetaire canadien a la suite d une restriction monetaire les prets bancaires aux consommateurs chutent c est vrai tant pour les prets hypothecaires que non hypothecaires et c est vrai pour une restric

educational expansion government policy and wage compression abstract the main objective is to measure the elasticity in the response of relative wages by education to relative supplies of educated labour using rigorously comparable urban wage labour market surveys an econometric comparison is made of kenya and tanzania countries which constitute a natural experiment having different secondary education policies but being similar in other relevant respects post primary educational expansion as kenya is an effective means of compressing wages however the tanzanian scarcity premium on post primary education is held down by the alternative means of public sector pay policy the analysis suggests an important role for occupation in the wage adjustment process

public private sector wage gap by gender in egypt evidence from quantile regression on panel data 1998 2018 abstract this paper estimates the public formal private wage gap in egypt using egypt labor market panel survey for the 20 year period of 1998 2018 for men and women separately we estimate the public formal private sector wage gap with wage equations including a public sector indicator both at the mean and at different quantiles of the conditional wage distribution using the panel feature of the data we also address the endogenous employment and the sector of employment selection issue and find a persistent public wage penalty for the males and public wage premium for the females except at the top even after controlling for the observable and the time invariant unobservable characteristics we further examine the public wage gap over time and in different sub samples by potential experience skill levels and regions generally the results are consistent with a decrease in the public wage gap for both men and women over the period considered we further provide evidence on the quality of workers we find that the public sector fails to attract better quality men throughout the conditional wage distribution while it manages to attract better quality women in the lower parts of the conditional wage distribution but not at the top all on the basis of time invariant unobservable attributes these results indicate concern for the efficient provision of public services

four formal izable theories of the firm in this essay i define and compare elemental versions of four theories of the firm these elemental theories are distilled from important contributions by hart holmstrom klein williamson and others although these contributions have been widely cited and much discussed i have found it difficult to understand the commonalities distinctions and potential combinations of these seemingly familiar contributions in this essay therefore i attempt to clarify these issues in three steps i begin with informal summaries of the theories then turn to simple but formal statements of each elemental theory and finally nest the four elemental theories in an integrative framework

macroeconomic implications of early retirement in the public sector the case of brazil abstract in brazil generous public sector pensions have induced civil servants to retire on average at age 55 in this paper we assess the efficiency gains from eliminating such policy induced early retirement in a two sector overlapping generations economy we find the adverse effects of that policy are significant specifically the generosity of public sector pensions which induces civil servants to retire 5 years prematurely at age 55 rather than at age 60 is often associated with decreases in steady state output gdp of almost 3 and welfare losses in the private sector of more than 3 of consumption

capturing knowledge within and across firm boundaries evidence from clinical development how do firm boundaries influence employees acquisition of information using detailed project level data and qualitative evidence i document that pharmaceutical firms are more likely to outsource the coordination of data intensive clinical trials while they are more likely to assign knowledge intensive trials to internal teams managers do not choose between market and hierarchy but between the hierarchy of the firm in which subjective performance evaluations are combined with flat explicit incentives and the hierarchy of its subcontractor whose virtue stems precisely from the ability to provide high powered incentives on a narrow set

consumption permanent income and financial wealth in canada empirical evidence on the intertemporal approach to the current account the intertemporal approach to the current account is rejected as a complete explanation of the canadian current account federal government fiscal policy plays an important role in the determination of the current account a private sector agent that treats its holdings of net liabilities of the federal government as net wealth accumulates the sum of these liabilities and the net liabilities of non residents as part of an intertemporally optimal plan this result indicates both fiscal policy and intertemporal considerations are important determinants of current account behaviour consommation revenu permanent et richesse financiere au canada resultats empiriques d une approche au compte courant mettant l accent sur la dimension intertemporelle cet article montre que l approche mettant l accent sur la dimension intertemporelle ne produit pas une explication complte du comportement du compte courant canadien i1 semble que la politique fiscale du gouvernement federal joue un r6le important dans la conformation du compte courant un agent economique prive composite qui traite son portefeuille de dettes nettes du gouvernement federal comme richesse nette va accumuler la somme de ces dettes et des dettes nettes des non residents dans le cadre de son plan intertemporel optimal les resultats montrent que la politique fiscale et des considerations intertemporelles sont des elements determinants du comportement du compte courant

a comment on the great canadian slump in this comment on fortin 1996 the authors argue that the sluggishness in economic activity in canada in the 1990s is better explained by a combination of factors than by monetary policy alone they find that 1 it is difficult to explain the sluggishness on the basis of the historical relationship between monetary conditions and real activity 2 fortin s evidence of downward nominal wage rigidity is seriously overstated 3 there are several reasons why technological change may have had a larger impact on employment in canada in the 1990s than in the united states and 4 the build up of government debt in the 1980s and 1990s was much more than a cyclical problem associated with monetary policy

sex differences in earnings an analysis of malaysian wage data the conventional human capital earnings function is applied to a rich set of malaysian wage data in an attempt to determine the origins of sex differences in average earnings several findings are of interest the first being that the relationships estimated from the earnings function are similar to those typically reported for non ldcs second less than a third of the average monthly wage difference between the sexes of about 34 per cent appears to be the consequence of either females having lower measured productivity than males or females receiving lower rates of return to human capital than males the major part of the earnings difference is apparently a consequence of employment distributions females are much more likely to be in the low paying occupations

the immediate challenges for the european central bank immediate challenges for the ecb issues in formulating a single monetary policy this paper discusses a number of issues that the newly constituted board of the ecb will face early on conducting a european monetary policy will be very different from living under the protective umbrella of the bundesbank we discuss voting on the ecb board and argue that the ability to communicate with the public will be critical for the success of the new institution we also ask how a single monetary policy a common change in the interest rate controlled by the ecb is transmitted to the economy of each member country we show that the monetary process differs significantly inside emu initially at least the cost of a disinflation episode could fall disproportionately on a few member countries those with both a financial structure that spreads a monetary contraction widely and a wage price structure that is relatively inflexible this process moreover is sure to evolve in part as a result of financial industry restructuring already under way but in part accentuated by the common money furthermore as the lucas principle suggests the wage price process itself will adapt to the changing focus of european monetary policy rudi dornbusch carlo favero and francesco giavazzi

public and private sector wages of male workers in germany we analyze several statistical assumptions used in empirical models on public private sector wage structures based on data for germany which contain a large range of background variables usually not available in other studies we investigate the sensitivity of results to various specification and identification assumptions the standard switching regression model is extended to allow for endogeneity of education level experience and hours worked these extensions lead to considerably different parameter estimates we compare conditional and unconditional wage differentials between the public and the private sector for the various specifications these differentials are sensitive to identification assumptions but robust across specifications which do and do not allow for endogeneity of education experience and hours worked

a neoclassical perspective on budget deficits i n the 1988 presidential campaign virtually every serious candidate spoke of the urgent need to trim government budget deficits public opinion polls have identified federal deficits as a key economic issue second only to unemployment while many economists are relieved by what they perceive to be a long overdue political response to a critical economic problem others regard the fuss as much ado about nothing it is indeed remarkable that economists can disagree so severely over an issue which commands such a uniform reaction from laymen of widely different ideologies and political affiliations generally speaking there are three schools of thought concerning the economic effects of budget deficits neoclassical keynesian and ricardian before proceeding further it is useful to review the basic structure and implications of each paradigm the neoclassical paradigm envisions farsighted individuals planning consumption over their own life cycles budget deficits raise total lifetime consumption by shifting taxes to subsequent generations if economic resources are fully employed increased consumption necessarily implies decreased saving interest rates must then rise to bring capital markets into balance thus persistent deficits crowd out private capital accumulation in the current economic environment most economists would agree that these consequences would be highly detrimental

government wage differentials a sample selection approach this paper uses the econometrics of sample selection to estimate the net wage differential between workers in the public and private sectors of the united states the results indicate workers self select by systematically locating in the sector which offers them the higher expected wage as a consequence previous research based on the assumption of random allocation between sectors is subject to serious specification bias the present estimation indicates government workers are slightly underpaid taking into account their observed characteristics and the selection process

bottlenecks and the phillips curve a disaggregated keynesian model of inflation output and unemployment benchmark macroeconomic models of output and inflation combine the demand side of the economy with aggregate supply equations based upon some version of the phillips curve in contrast to classical and new classical models such as lucas i972 and sargent 1979 chs i xii and xvi in which prices jump instantaneously to market clearing levels the gradual price adjustment approach represented by tobin 1972 laidler and parkin i975 section 4 barro and grossman 1976 ch 5 sargent 1979 ch ii and ch v i okun i98i and perry i983 take wages and or prices to be predetermined at an instant in time while their rates of change depend on the level of aggregate output in the prototype complete macroeconomic model incorporating this approach output is determined by aggregate demand equations while the augmented phillips curve specifies that prices move in a direction which will tend to return output to its equilibrium value this short run keynesian long run monetarist character is typical of many structural macroeconometric models it is the standard textbook account found for example in dornbusch and fischer i98i and is implicit in much current research there are fundamental questions of consistency in the type of model just described the central difficulty is that with wages and prices predetermined the non market clearing analysis ofbarro and grossman i 976 ch 2 and malinvaud i977 is applicable but in this world the aggregate demand equations are decisive only in the keynesian regime in the other regimes which must arise at high levels of aggregate demand the effective supplies of output or labour or both must be modelled indeed at the aggregate level it is difficult to provide a coherent account of how it is possible to have output above its equilibrium value since this would require labour and output in excess of their notional supplies violating barro and grossman s min condition that quantities be determined by the short side of the market an appealing line for addressing this last difficulty is to disaggregate markets an approach taken by hansen i970 tobin i972 and barro and grossman i976 ch 5 however because each market can be in either excess supply or demand a formal fixed price general equilibrium model appears to be intractable due to the resulting multiplicity of regimes and is not attempted by these authors in this paper these problems are overcome in a disaggregated model in which

canadian labour market performance in international perspective my objective is to assess canadian labour market outcomes in recent decades and to compare canada s performance with that experienced in other industrialized countries the focus is on three key dimensions employment unemployment and the structure of earnings although my main purpose in the paper is to examine the canadian record i also ask what we can learn from canada s experience about the causes of some of the salient economic developments in oecd countries the rise and persistence of unemployment in europe and the growth of income inequality in countries such as the united states the united kingdom canada and australia let s begin with the question how well has the canadian economy performed during the past three decades if our reference point is the 1950s and 1960s the answer is likely to be poorly indeed the first twenty five years following the second world war now appear as a golden era since that period real income growth has been slow earnings have become more unequally distributed and unemployment has trended upward reaching levels that would have been considered outside the range of plausibility in the 1960s however most of the advanced countries have experienced a sharp deterioration in their economic performance since the early 1970s the turbulent world economic environment has made it difficult to sustain the kind of outcomes ob

wage differentials and moonlighting by civil servants evidence from cote d ivoire and peru as part of their efforts to reduce fiscal deficits many governments have allowed public sector salaries to erode often on the assumption that government workers are overpaid vis a vis those in the private sector that assumption is tested by analyzing public private pay differentials in cote d ivoire and peru switching regressions models are estimated using full information maximum likelihood fiml and the results are compared to those obtained using ordinary least squares ols techniques the ols yields seriously biased estimates of the pay structure suggesting that public wages are higher than private wages the fiml estimates show the opposite our probit analysis also shows that the wage disadvantage of civil servants is a determinant of the greater prevalence of moonlighting among public than private employees the evidence suggests that reductions in employment rather than pay while being less palatable in the short term will be more effective in the long run

measuring corruption in china an expenditure based approach using household survey data most existing micro level empirical analyses of corruption rely on administrative records special purpose surveys or field experiments which can be difficult or very costly to obtain in some situations in this paper we apply an expenditure based method of quantifying the extent of corruption in a particular country using household survey data this method utilizes discrepancies between consumption and reported income to measure corruption another contribution of this paper is that it provides the first objective estimate of the extent of corruption in china we use a quadratic clothing expenditure function to estimate the extent of corruption in china in 2002

an analysis of public and private sector wages allowing for endogenous choices of both government and union status a general selection model is estimated in which workers select across four labor markets private nonunion private union public nonunion and public union evidence is found of positive selection bias in the private nonunion sector and of negative selection bias in the public union sector union wage differentials in the public and private sectors as well as public private wage differentials are then calculated two different types of wage differentials are contrasted we discuss when it is appropriate to use each type of differential

foreign exchange market efficiency tests implications of recent empirical findings abstract the recent empirical literature on the efficiency of the foreign exchange market has been characterized by strikingly contradictory conclusions drawn from similar empirical evidence these contradictions result because 1 different maintained hypotheses are held and 2 different criteria e g micro versus macroeconomic are used to judge the evidence in this survey we organize the empirical literature under several headings the presence of risk premiums empirical regularities in regression tests profitable trading rules and advanced econometric techniques in integrating this material we consider the implications of the current evidence for investors forecasters policy makers and theorists

persistent deficits and the market value of government debt summary this paper investigates whether postwar canadian public financial policy satisfies a borrowing constraint direct tests of the present value relation suggested by this constraint shed light on the sustainability of current policy we examine monthly data on canadian federal government finances using tests for cointegration the finding is that the joint behaviour of real debt and real surpluses is inconsistent with intertemporal budget balance for the government one interpretation of this finding is that the government is systematically paying real returns to bondholders by issuing further debt alternatively bondholders may expect the government to finance future interest payments from a source other than primary surpluses e g the sale of physical assets much empirical macroeconomics is concerned with the effects of public financial policies numerous studies have examined whether such policies affect interest rates inflation or national income and its components these examinations raise the question of the efficacy of government budget deficits they generally assume that a borrowing constraint holds in the public finances some positive theories of public debt creation also make this assumption examples include barro s 1979 history of us federal deficits and sargent s 1986 rationalizations of recent us budgetary policy lucas and stokey s 1983 discussion of optimal taxation also involves this assumption hansen roberds and sargent 1987 outline the testable implications of present value budget balance and hamilton and flavin 1986 investigate the feasibility of recurring deficits by directly testing the us federal government s borrowing constraint such tests seem natural given both the recent boom is testing more complicated first order difference equations in macroeconomics and the widespread discussion of current deficits this paper tests the present value borrowing constraint using recently constructed data on the market value of outstanding canadian federal government debt we use monthly rather than annual as in hamilton and flavin data and conduct tests of univariate integration and of bivariate cointegration to investigate the joint time series properties of debt and deficits one finding is that real debt and real surpluses are integrated processes evidence of their cointegration is mixed and point estimates of the cointegrating vector suggest that the expected real rate of return on debt is negative moreover the surplus measured to include interest payments as government spending is nonstationary these findings are inconsistent

can a firm find the balance between openness and secrecy towards a theory of an optimum level of disclosure the purpose of this article is not merely to counter assertions about technology leakage spillovers being innocuous or benevolent but to go further and illuminate an under researched question how can companies seek the optimum balance between conscious disclosure and secrecy the article works towards a theory of optimum disclosure by identifying possible benefits and costs of disclosure or openness in paradigm 1 most companies find the net benefits of disclosure openness to be negative in paradigm 2 applicable to a few highly networked or open source mnes there could be net benefits over a limited range and up to an optimum point

public private wage differentials in haiti do public servants earn a rent abstract this study uses a newly collected data set on haiti where data are very limited to assess how individuals are selected into the public vs private sectors and to estimate public private sector wage differentials the central question is whether or not public servants are earning a rent the estimation procedure is an extension of heckman s 1979 sample selection technique to the case where two selection rules generate the sample the procedure first estimates by bivariate probit analysis the probability of employment in the public or private sector and then for those in the public sector the probability of employment in the state owned enterprises soes vs public administration wage functions are then estimated for all three sectors using the inverse mills ratios from reduced form probits selectivity bias is found to exist in one sector soes correction for this bias in the wage equations lowers the wage differentials between the soe and the private sector and the soe and public administration as is clearly demonstrated by the oaxaca decomposition of these estimated mean differentials nevertheless the corrected findings still indicate that the public sector especially the soes earn a sizable rent

real exchange rate overshooting and the output cost of bringing down inflation implementing a gradualist policy of monetary contraction in an open economy with a freely floating exchange rate but with nominal inertia in domestic labor costs can lead to prompt and substantial changes in the nominal and real exchange rate one of the virtues claimed for such exchange rate overshooting however is its immediate effect on the price level and so on domestic wage and price inflation in this paper we show that in a model which is super neutral and has nominal inertia in both the level of labor costs and their trend or core rate of growth this early overshooting of the exchange rate does not succeed in cutting the output costs of reducing steady state inflation those output and unemployment costs which are initially avoided by over valuing the currency have to be paid later when this overvaluation is corrected relative to other policies which achieve the same effect on steady state inflation exchange rate overshooting brings inflation down more quickly this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

public private employment choice wage differentials and gender in turkey abstract the main objective of this article is to examine the factors that explain the employment choice and the wage differentials in public administration state owned enterprises and the formal private wage sector in turkey selectivity corrected wage equations are estimated for each sector for men and women separately oaxaca blinder decomposition of the wage differentials between sectors by gender and between men and women by sector are carried out results indicate that when controlled for observed characteristics and sample selection for men public administration wages are higher than private sector wages except at the university level where the wages are at par state owned enterprise wages for men are higher than private sector wages similar results are obtained for women further while the wages of men and women are at parity in the public administration there is a large gender wage gap in the private sector in favor of men private returns to schooling are found to be lower in the noncompe

nominal wage rigidity in contract data a parametric approach using wage agreements reached in the canadian unionized sector during 1976 99 a period of high as well as exceptionally low inflation we consider how histograms of wage adjustment changed as inflation reached the low levels of the 1990s the histograms and parametric tests suggest that wage adjustment is characterized by downward nominal rigidity and significant spikes at zero there is some evidence of modest menu cost effects we examine whether the rigidity features of wage adjustment are sensitive to indexation provisions and investigate whether the distinction between short and long contracts is useful

an exogeneity test for a simultaneous equation tobit model with an application to labor supply a test of weak exogeneity in the simultaneous equation tobit model is proposed and illustrated using a female labour supply model estimated using cross section data the test statistic can be simply output from any standard tobit maximum likelihood package and is asymptotically efficient the procedure provides consistent estimators for the simultaneous tobit model whose asymptotic covariance matrix is a simple extension of the usual tobit formula we also provide the lagrange multiplier test of weak exogeneity this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

estimation of a labour supply model with censoring due to unemployment and underemployment this study proposes and implements a method of labour supply estimation which is appropriate when the sample contains unemployed and underemployed workers the estimation method consists of excluding unemployed and underemployed workers from the sample and then using to avoid selection bias an extension of heckman s approach to the case where two correlated selection rules generate the sample hausman s specification test is then used to determine whether ignoring constrained workers has led to biases in traditional labour supply estimates and the empirical results suggest that previous estimates of several important parameters are biased since the biases go in the direction that would be predicted by the hypothesis that the unemployed and underemployed are constrained the results support this hypothesis

causality links between consumer and producer prices some empirical evidence this paper reexamines the relationship between consumer and producer prices in the g7 countries united states canada germany france italy united kingdom and japan and it improves on the existing literature in two ways first it takes into account causality links arising from the transmission mechanism of monetary policy which are generally overlooked second it employs the causality testing method for unstable systems recently introduced by toda and yamamato 1995 which results in standard asymptotics thereby obtaining valid statistical inference the empirical results are consistent with the conventional wisdom according to which there is unidirectional causality running from producer to consumer prices bidirectional causality or even no significant links only being found when the causality links reflecting the monetary transmission mechanism are ignored