a faith based initiative meets the evidence does a flexible exchange rate regime really facilitate current account adjustment it is often asserted that a flexible exchange rate regime would facilitate current account adjustment using data on over 170 countries over the 1971 2005 period we examine this assertion systematically we find no strong robust or monotonic relationship between exchange rate regime flexibility and the rate of current account reversion even after accounting for the degree of economic development and trade and capital account openness this finding presents a challenge to the friedman 1953 hypothesis and a popular policy recommendation by international financial institutions

a dynamic approach to the environmental kuznets curve hypothesis abstract the environmental kuznets curve ekc hypothesis states that pollution levels increase as a country develops but begin to decrease as rising incomes pass beyond a turning point in ekc analyses the relationship between environmental degradation and income is usually expressed as a quadratic function with the turning point occurring at a maximum pollution level other explanatory variables have been included in these models but income regularly has had the most significant effect on indicators of environmental quality one variable consistently omitted in these relationships is the price of energy this paper analyzes previous models to illustrate the importance of prices in these models and then includes prices in an econometric ekc framework testing energy income and co2 income relationships these long run price income models find that income is no longer the most relevant indicator of environmental quality or energy demand indeed we find no significant evidence for the existence of an ekc within the range of current incomes for energy in the presence of price and trade variables

the income elasticity of non point source air pollutants revisiting the environmental kuznets curve abstract this paper examines the income pollution relationship for three non point source pollutants in 1990 ambient concentrations reported at monitors throughout the us are regressed on median household income and other socio economic variables for the census tracts in which the monitors were located contrary to earlier studies a u shaped relationship is obtained

openness central bank independence and the sacrifice ratio traditional explanations of the negative correlation between openness and inflation presume that an inverse relationship between the degree of openness and the sacrifice ratio reduces the inflation bias of descretionary monetary policy temple 2002 concludes however that such a relationship fails to emerge in cross country data our analysis of the same cross country data considered by temple indicates that once the degree of central bank independence and its interaction with greater openness and the sacrifice ratio in addition increased openness lessens the positive effect of central bank independence on the sacrifice ratio

the output inflation tradeoff and central bank reform evidence from new zealand the 1989 reserve bank of new zealand act provides a natural experiment in which the effects of institutional change on economic relationships can be studied the act set price stability as the single objective of monetary policy and gave the bank great independence reforms of this nature may lead to a greater short run output inflation tradeoff by altering optimal stabilisation policy and wage indexation allowing for environments where learning about the new regime is assumed to be rapid as well as slow we find that a large rise in the new zealand tradeoff has occurre d since implementation of the act

the effect of inflation targeting on the behavior of expected inflation evidence from an 11 country panel abstract inflation targets were introduced in the 1990s in australia canada new zealand sweden and the united kingdom change in the behavior of expected inflation in the five targeting countries is measured in a panel that includes six non targeting countries france germany italy the netherlands japan and the united states the level of expected inflation in targeting countries falls after the announcement of targets with controls for country effects year effects ongoing inflation reduction and the business cycle neither the variability of expected inflation nor the average absolute forecast error falls after the announcement of targets with controls for the level and variability of past inflation both targeting and non targeting countries experience unexpected disinflation

the effect of inflation targets on the level of expected inflation in five countries did inflation targets reduce the level of expected inflation in australia canada new zealand sweden and the united kingdom in this note predictions of forecasts by professional forecasters are constructed for five consecutive 12 month periods after the announcement of targets these predictions use a variety of information variables known to forecasters at the time they make their forecasts the results show that after the announcement of targets predicted forecasts are less than actual forecasts in australia canada new zealand and sweden this is evidence that targets reduced the level of expected inflation no evidence of such effects is found in the united kingdom

on the international effects of inflation targeting abstract this study empirically examines the international effects of inflation targeting employing a variety of propensity score matching methods we find strong evidence that inflation targeting has significantly different impacts on exchange rate volatility and international reserves in different country groups it significantly increases real and nominal exchange rate stability and international reserves in developing countries but lowers them in industrial countries on average inflation targeting increases lowers reserves roughly by the size of 1 3 1 8 months of imports values in developing industrial countries the treatment effects on targeting countries current accounts are found to be insignificant in both country groups

income inequality and the environment aggregation bias in environmental kuznets curves abstract the environmental kuznets curve assumes an inverted u shaped relation between environmental damage and per capita income recently it has been argued in the literature that in addition to income levels the inequality in the distribution of power and income is positively related to environmental degradation we provide an additional argument based on simple aggregation for including a measure of income dispersion in empirical analyses when the relationship between environmental damage and household income is concave e g resembles an environmental kuznets curve then income inequality is negatively related to total environmental damage results from an empirical analysis of cross national variation indicate that the aggregation effect can run counter to and outweigh the political economy effect for some environmental indicators

does inflation targeting affect the dispersion of inflation expectations in this paper we examine the effect of having an inflation targeting framework on the dispersion of inflation forecasts from professional forecasters we use a panel data set of 25 countries including 14 inflation targeters with 16 years of monthly information we find that the dispersion of long run inflation expectations is smaller in targeting regimes after controlling for country specific effects time specific effects the level and the variance of inflation disinflation periods and global inflation on average the full effect is not observed until the third year after implementation of inflation targeting when we differentiate between developed and developing countries the dispersion of inflation expectations after inflation targeting is smaller and statistically significant only in developing countries

stoking the fires co2 emissions and economic growth abstract we examine the relationship between economic development and carbon dioxide emissions a greenhouse gas central to global warming predictions estimates derived from global panel data suggest a diminishing marginal propensity to emit mpe carbon dioxide as gdp per capita rises despite this global carbon dioxide emissions growth will continue at 1 8 percent per annum for the foreseeable future a result that is not sensitive to average output growth instead emissions growth continues because output and population will grow most rapidly in lower income nations with high mpes this latter feature emphasizes the distributional consequences of policies to reduce emissions

pollution energy use gdp and trade estimating the long run relationship for vietnam abstractsince the beginning of economic reform in the 1980s and in particular with its openness to international trade accelerating since the 1990s the vietnamese economy has registered significant growth at the same time energy consumption and the level of pollution in vietnam has also increased this article aims to focus on the link between openness to trade and pollution in vietnam due to lack of data very few existing studies have focused on vietnam using annual data from1980 to 2011 and employing the bounds testing approach to cointegration based on an autoregressive distributed lagged ardl model we find that there is a statistically significant long run relationship amongst pollution openness to trade energy consumption and real national income in vietnam this conclusion continues to hold when the possibility of a structural break in the relationship is allowed for using the gregory hansen approach to cointegration analysis of the cointegration relationship suggests that in respons

the effects of alternative urban transit subsidy formulas abstract this paper demonstrates that for a given cost to the taxpayer the effects of a transit subsidy depend on the subsidy formula the objective function of the transit firm and the transit demand function under most assumptions a subsidy would lead to a lower fare more service and more riders but under some assumptions the fare would remain unchanged or increase if a transit firm maximizes ridership lump sum and passenger subsidies will have the same effects but a cost subsidy with the same cost to taxpayers will lead to a higher fare more service and lower ridership

globalisation and corruption revisited this paper presents new empirical evidence on the determinants of corruption focussing on the role of globalization and inequality the estimates for a panel of 102 countries over the period 1995 2005 point to three main results i detection technologies reflected in a high level of development human capital and political rights reduce corruption whereas natural resource rents increase corruption ii globalization in terms of both trade and financial openness has a negative eect on corruption which is more pronounced in developing countries iii inequality increases corruption and once the role of inequality is accounted for the impact of globalization on corruption is halved in line with recent theory this suggests that globalization besides reducing corruption through enhanced competition aects corruption also by reducing inequality

openness exchange rate regimes and the phillips curve abstract recent research suggests that the phillips curve slope measured using sacrifice ratios from the period 1961 88 is positively related to trade openness contradicting the romer 1993 openness and inflation theory and evidence quarterly journal of economics 108 869 903 hypothesis that disinflations are less costly in open economies in this paper i consider sacrifice ratios and output inflation trade offs from 1981 98 and allow their dependence on openness to vary with the exchange rate regime sacrifice ratios are weakly negatively related to openness but the strength of the relationship does not increase with exchange rate flexibility output inflation trade offs are negatively related to openness and the strength of the relationship increases with exchange rate flexibility

developments in the throughput income relationship theoretical and empirical observations abstract it has been suggested that the relationship between income and the associated environmental pressure in terms of derived materials inputs and pollution levels may take an inverted u shape indicating a delinking of environmental pressure from economic growth in relation to rising per capita incomes the likelihood of such a relationship being persistent is discussed in the context of a simple macro model of industrial metabolism and the possibility of relinking clearly emerges data on specific indicators of environmental pressure i e the throughput of materials energy and the volume of transport in 19 countries have been used to investigate patterns of delinking the results suggest that delinking may not be persistent already some advanced economies may be entering a new period of relinking the relationships between environmental pressure and welfare in the medium long term may be n shaped rather than inverted u shaped

does inflation targeting help reduce financial dollarization we examine whether adopting an inflation targeting regime helps reduce financial dollarization as predicted by ize and levy yeyati s 2003 portfolio model to address the self selection problem of policy adoption we apply a variety of propensity score matching methods to a large sample of 106 developing countries for the years 1985 2004 we find strong evidence that inflation targeting has large and significant treatment effects on lowering both actual financial dollarization and the model implied minimum variance portfolio dollarization our results are robust to alternative samples and model specifications and also to control for additional factors in postmatching regressions

an alternative analysis of apparent ekc type transitions abstract the hypothesis of the environmental kuznets curve ekc depends upon the assumption that countries pass through a similar environmental impact trajectory as they experience income growth implying that income levels determine pollution levels the authors present evidence that this is not representative of the way many individual country s pollution emission trajectories evolve and question the emphasis on income determinism by the ekc the study proposes that nonlinear dynamic systems analysis provides a more complete description of individual country pollution trajectories in the case of co 2 emissions the nonlinear time trajectories show abrupt transitions that occur contemporaneously with historical events and over a broad range of incomes

determinants of co2 emissions in a small open economy abstract the aim of the paper is to explore the relationship between economic development and carbon dioxide co2 emissions for a small open and industrialized country austria we test whether an environmental kuznets curve relationship also holds for a single country rather than concentrating on panel or cross section data for a set of countries a cubic i e n shaped relationship between gdp and co2 emissions is found to fit the data most appropriately for the period 1960 1999 and a structural break is identified in the mid seventies due to the oil price shock furthermore two variables are additionally significant import shares reflecting the well known pollution haven hypothesis and the share of the tertiary service sector of total production gdp accounting for structural changes in the economy emission projections derived from this single country specification support the widely held opinion that significant policy changes are asked for when implementing the kyoto protocol in order to bring about a downturn in future carbon emissions

inflation targeting does not matter another look at oecd sacrifice ratios recently in this journal goncalves and carvalho 2009 concluded that inflation targeters were able to bring inflation down at less cost than nontargeters p 242 this comment shows that their conclusion is not robust but instead is the result of comparing a particular subset of inflation targeting it disinflations with nonsimultaneous disinflations that occurred under very different macroeconomic conditions in their sample simple extensions such as justifiably varying the treatment group of it disinflations to control for common time varying effects or to control for the maastricht treaty effects suggest that it does not matter

capital biased subsidies bureaucratic monitoring and bus scrapping abstract a model of bus scrapping yields the hypothesis that a capital biased subsidy increases the scrapping probability and reduces the expected life for urban transit buses and hence wastes resources governments have instituted bureaucratic approval requirements to prevent capital biased subsidies from leading to premature scrapping of buses if effective these requirements would reduce the impact of capital biased subsidies on the scrapping probability for buses that are less than 15 years old estimates of a probit model using data for ontario canada during 1963 1981 are consistent with the hypothesis that capital biased subsidies increase the scrapping probability but not with the hypothesis that bureaucratic monitoring has prevented premature scrapping

inflation forecast targeting implementing and monitoring inflation targets abstract inflation targeting is shown to imply inflation forecast targeting the central bank s inflation forecast becomes an explicit intermediate target inflation forecast targeting simplifies both implementation and monitoring of monetary policy the weight on output stabilization determines how quickly the inflation forecast is adjusted towards the inflation target money growth or exchange rate targeting is generally inferior than inflation targeting and leads to higher inflation variability commitment to target rules may be better than commitment to instrument rules

does globalisation discipline monetary policymakers abstract this paper analyses globalisation using a small general equilibrium model it concludes that whether increased openness a reduction in the costs of international trade helps to discipline monetary policy in large open economies depends on the type of trade costs moreover to the extent that globalisation induces stronger competition in the goods market this may also have an adverse effect on monetary policy discipline the latter is due to international expenditure switching which becomes a more forceful channel as competition intensifies thus the answer to the question in the title is not necessarily affirmative

openness and the effects of monetary policy abstract economic theory suggests that an economy s openness reduces the ability of monetary policy to affect output while increasing its effects on inflation using annual data from the 1953 1990 period for a panel of 38 countries the paper s empirical results support the theoretical predictions the more open the economy the smaller larger the output inflation effects of a given change in the money supply this finding is robust across all the different specifications and estimation methods examined

targets of violence evidence from india s naxalite conflict this paper considers how shocks to rural incomes intensify violence in india s naxalite insurgency using variation in annual rainfall in a panel of district level fatal incidents between 2005 and 2011 i find that deficient rainfall generally spurs targeted violence against civilians but the number of maoist attacks against security forces only increases in mining districts this finding consistent with the idea that the relationship between income shocks and conflict depends on the type of targets and the revenue sources of the rebels in particular the fighting capacity of rebel groups against government forces could benefit more from negative rural income shocks if the group s resources are sufficiently independent from the agricultural economy as is the case in mining areas

the determinants of atmospheric so2 concentrations reconsidering the environmental kuznets curve this analysis explores the effects of income and the spatial intensity of economic activity on the atmospheric concentration of sulfur dioxide the results indicate that there is a u shaped relation between income and atmospheric concentration of so2 and an inverted u shaped relation between the spatial intensity of economic activity and so2 concentrations these results suggest that the spatial intensity of economic activity rather than income provides the impetus for policies and technologies that reduce so2 emissions based on this result the atmospheric concentration of so2 in developing nations may decline faster than indicated by previous analyses the potential for this decline depends on the rate at which income grows relative to population the trade off between the effects of income gains and the spatial intensity of economic activity on the atmospheric concentration of so2 is consistent with the notion that some environmental problems can be ameliorated by slowing population growth and increasing income levels

the relationships of carbon dioxide emissions and income in a newly industrialized economy this study investigates the carbon dioxide co2 emissions patterns in coordination with the economic development of taiwan the resulting quadratic relationship between emissions and income are partly due to the structural change of energy supply in taiwan with the introduction of nuclear energy in 1980 to 1986 this relationship is quite unique and different from the n shaped relationships in some developed countries de bruyn and opschoor 1997 friedl and getzner 2003 the co2 emissions in taiwan increase with the increasing imports of raw materials for economic activities and the increasing use of electricity there is no evidence that the substantial increase of taiwan s service sector contributed to slowing its co2 emissions

openness inflation and the phillips curve a puzzle models of open economies with nominal rigidities are often thought to predict a correlation between openness to trade and the slope of the output inflation trade off or phillips curve using a variety of measures of the trade off and a standard measure of openness this paper argues that the direct evidence for a correlation is not strong in turn this calls into question the usual explanation for the negative correlation between openness and inflation that was documented by romer 1993 the paper considers some alternative explanations for the romer evidence

inflation targeting an indirect approach to assess the direct impact it is quite difficult to assess the benefits of inflation targeting it since its immediate effect will be on inflation expectations an unobserved variable due to lack of comprehensive data on inflation expectations most studies so far concentrated on the impact of it either on observable variables like output unemployment and inflation or compared post it surveys of itcountries with nonit countries in our study we focus on a yet unanswered question i e how the expectations change with the adoption of it we suggest that heterogeneous inflation expectations lead to long memory in actual inflation and it if successful should decrease this persistence by concentrating the public s expectations toward the announced target empirical results confirm our hypothesis with a reduction in inflation memory after the adoption of it in almost all eight developed countries in our sample

carbon dioxide emission and income a temporal analysis of cross country distributional patterns the existence of a cointegrating relationship between income and co2 emission for individual country groups suggests existence of a corresponding relationship between the inter country disparities in the levels of income and co2 emission this paper explores the relationship between the patterns of cross country distribution of income and co2 emission and temporal shifts in such a relationship this paper also examines how the mean level of per capita co2 emission and its distributional inequality are related to the corresponding mean income level and the distributional inequality of income the analysis is based on a cross country panel data set at the level of country group environmental quality demanded is treated as a private good and not as a public good as done in most other studies the technique of lorenz and specific concentration curve analysis are used as the basic analytical framework to argue that a measure of relative distributional inequality of income should be used as an explanatory variable in the environmental kuznets curve ekc relationship along with the mean income level in the empirical exercise johansen s cointegration analysis technique is used to explore existence of statistically significant cointegrating vector s relating mean level of emission and specific concentration ratio scr of emission to mean income level and lorenz ratio lr of income the empirical results confirm that the pattern of cross country income distribution has significant effect on the mean level of emission for all the country groups considered

openness the sacrifice ratio and inflation is there a puzzle abstract the standard time inconsistency based explanation for the negative correlation between openness and inflation requires an inverse relationship between the sacrifice ratio and openness but daniels et al 2005 openness central bank independence and the sacrifice ratio journal of money credit and banking 37 2 371 379 have provided evidence that controlling for central bank independence reveals a positive relationship this paper embeds the time inconsistency approach within a model of a multisector imperfectly competitive open economy in this setting greater openness raises the sacrifice ratio but reduces the inflation bias thus failure to observe an inverse relationship between openness and the sacrifice ratio does not necessarily imply that the time inconsistency approach is irrelevant to understanding the openness inflation relationship

inflation targeting and business cycle synchronization abstract inflation targeting seems to have a small but positive effect on the synchronization of business cycles countries that target inflation seem to have cycles that move slightly more closely with foreign cycles thus the advent of inflation targeting does not explain the decoupling of global business cycles for two reasons indeed business cycles have not in fact become less synchronized across countries

carbon dioxide emissions and global gdp abstract a positive relationship between carbon dioxide emissions the most important greenhouse gas ghg implicated in global warming and gdp is shown in this paper examining per capita income and co2 emissions of 137 countries across 21 years it also appears that as per capita incomes accelerate across countries emissions increases for the most part tend to decelerate it could be that higher income levels lead to increased demand for environmental protection only emissions reduction proposals that assure incomes will not be adversely affected particularly those of less developed countries ldcs will have any possibility of successful implementation

economic growth and greenhouse gas emissions abstract recent empirical research has examined the relationship between certain indicators of environmental degradation and income concluding that in some cases an inverted u shaped relationship which has been called an environmental kuznets curve ekc exists between these variables unfortunately this inverted u shaped relationship does not hold for greenhouse gas emissions one explanation of the absence of ekc like behavior in greenhouse gas emissions is that greenhouse gases are special pollutants that create global not local disutility but the international nature of global warming is not the only reason that prevents de linking greenhouse gas emissions from economic growth the intergenerational nature of the negative impact of greenhouse gas emissions may have also been an important factor preventing the implementation of greenhouse gas abatement measures in the past in this paper we explore the effect that the presence of intergenerational spillovers has on the emissions income relationship we use a numerically calibrated overlapping generations model of climate economy interactions we conclude that 1 the intertemporal responsibility of the regulatory agency 2 the institutional capacity to make intergenerational transfers and 3 the presence of intergenerationally lagged impact of emissions constitute important determinants of the relationship between economic growth and greenhouse gas emissions

economic growth trade and energy implications for the environmental kuznets curve abstract the environmental kuznets curve ekc hypothesis asserts that pollution follows an inverted u path with respect to economic growth the ekc has been explained in terms of structural changes in the composition of economic output and increased environmental regulation at higher income levels while some authors have incorporated the impact of trade policy orientation on the ekc the impact of the actual movement between countries of goods that embody pollution has not been considered this paper attempts to econometrically quantify the effect using pooled cross country and time series data the ekc hypothesis is examined with respect to commercial energy consumption the source of many serious environmental problems it was found that while both industrializing and industrialized countries have added to their energy requirements by exporting manufactured goods the growth has been substantially higher in the former at the same time industrialized countries have been able to reduce their energy requirements by importing manufactured goods exports of manufactured goods by industrialized countries has thus been an important factor in generating the upward sloping portion of the ekc and imports by industrialized countries have contributed to the downward slope

information access income distribution and the environmental kuznets curve abstract recent empirical studies have tested the hypothesis of an environmental kuznets curve ekc focusing primarily on the relationship between per capita income and certain types of pollutant emissions given the stock nature of many pollution problems emissions only partially account for the environmental impacts moreover almost all of the studies have given consideration to little more than income levels as explanatory variables this paper empirically tests the hypothesis of the ekc existence for a stock sensitive indicator that is the percentage of protected area pa within national territory it does theorize that economic growth is a necessary condition in order to better address environmental issues but it also stresses that other variables income distribution education information accessibility may play a fundamental role in determining environmental quality contrary to other studies that mainly focus on the calculation of the income level corresponding to the transition point this paper is more concerned with the calculation of environmental quality corresponding to that transition point that is the minimum level of environmental quality that a country is willing to accept this paper highlights the idea that if the transition point is determined primarily by income level social policies determine the level of environmental quality corresponding to that point

the role of geography in financial and economic integration a comparative analysis of foreign direct investment trade and portfolio investment flows the objective of this paper is to examine the role of geography in explaining the patterns of financial and economic integration among both developed and developing countries using a gravity model we compare north north north south and south north fdi trade and portfolio investment flows to examine how geographical factors influence these bilateral flows the results indicate that the impact of geography variables on fdi and portfolio are similar to their effect on trade geography variables have a statistically significant effect both on fdi and portfolio investment but fdi is more sensitive to distance we interpret the negative effect of distance as the existence of information costs in financial flows also bilateral fdi trade and portfolio investment flows react to macroeconomic fundamentals in the same way however with different degrees of sensitivity there are significant differences between north north and north south flows our results find support for the argument that most fdi among industrial countries are horizontal whereas most fdi investment in developing countries is vertical the fact that the significance of geographical variables on financial flows still remained even after controlling for the macroeconomic fundamentals is in contrast with the standard capital market model the results can however be reconciled if geographical factors can proxy for information costs which may in turn explain why country portfolios are still home biased the significant effect of distance on financial flows may also explain how idiosyn cratic shocks are spread i e contagion to other countries in the same region ultimately the geographical location of a country may determine its economic and financial integration into the world economy

inflation targeting and output inflation tradeoffs abstract this article assesses whether the adoption of inflation targeting it helps reduce the output inflation tradeoff we address the self selection problem of it policy adoption by the endogenous switching regressions and show that the output inflation tradeoffs are significantly lower in it countries not only over the whole sample but also across the developed and developing country subsamples in addition we also find strong evidence supporting the positive selection hypothesis i e countries have higher probability of adopting it are exactly those who benefit more larger reduction of output inflation tradeoff from the implementation of it additional results reveal that economies with higher trade openness lower financial openness and less flexible exchange rate regime are associated with larger tradeoff between output and inflation but the effects are only statistically significant in the it regime

inflation targeting matters evidence from oecd economies sacrifice ratios using data from oecd economies we show that inflation targeters suffered smaller output losses during disinflations when compared to nontargeters we also study why some countries choose to inflation target while others do not and find that higher average inflation and smaller debt levels render the adoption of the regime more likely applying heckman s procedure to control for selection bias does not alter the link between inflation targeting and less costly disinflations

inflation targeting in emerging economies panel evidence abstract this paper shows there is no evidence that the inflation targeting regime it improves economic performance as measured by the behavior of inflation and output growth in developing countries the control of common time effects results in less negative and less significant it impacts on inflation inflation volatility and output growth volatility than previously found in the literature additionally our analysis shows robust evidence of lower output growth during it adoption on balance although lower long run mean inflation signals that the central banks of emerging economies with inflation targeting are more inflation averse the costs of disinflation have not been lower than under other monetary regimes

the asymmetric relationships between pollution energy use and oil prices in vietnam some behavioural implications for energy policy making abstract with rapidly expanding real gdp in vietnam it is anticipated that the vietnamese energy production will increase to meet its rising energy consumption an important corollary is that pollution will also rise since the energy sector is considered a big polluter in the developing world this paper brings two important insights to this literature first and foremost this paper seeks to establish if any behavioural biases of policy makers have clouded the decision to adopt suitable energy technologies and policies in vietnam with far reaching consequences for sustainability in the region secondly in order to detect behavioural biases it considers the asymmetric effects of increases vis a vis decreases in regressors by using the non linear autoregressive distributed lags nardl models to examine how such increases or decreases really impact on pollution in vietnam using annual data from 1982 to 2015 the analysis finds that the long run relationships between pollution energy use and oil prices have been characterised by non linear and asymmetric interlinkages to indicate hidden cointegration we further argue that such hidden cointegration can signal important behavioural biases in energy policy making

capital account liberalization and inflation abstract evidence from over 100 countries suggests a strong link between capital account openness and lower inflation in particular widespread capital account liberalization during the early 1990s appears to have contributed to the world wide disinflation observed during that decade alternative indices of capital account openness including those of quinn and toyoda measuring international financial openness and closure department of political science georgetown university washington dc 1996 mimeo yield similar results

does inflation targeting make a difference in developing countries we evaluate the treatment effect of inflation targeting in thirteen developing countries that have adopted this policy by the end of 2004 using a variety of propensity score matching methods we show that on average inflation targeting has large and significant effects on lowering both inflation and inflation variability in these thirteen countries however the effectiveness of inflation targeting on lowering inflation is found to be quite heterogeneous the performance of a given inflation targeting regime can be affected by country characteristics such as government s fiscal position central bank s desire to limit the movements of exchange rate its willingness to meet the preconditions of policy adoption and the time length since the policy adoption

does inflation targeting really make a difference evaluating the treatment effect of inflation targeting in seven industrial countries abstract we evaluate the treatment effect of inflation targeting in seven industrial countries that adopted this policy in the 1990s to address the self selection problem of policy adoption we make use of a variety of propensity score matching methods recently developed in the treatment effect literature our results show that inflation targeting has no significant effects on either inflation or inflation variability in these seven countries further evidence from long term nominal interest rates and income velocity of money also supports the window dressing view of inflation targeting

a stable international monetary system emerges inflation targeting is bretton woods reversed a stable international monetary system has emerged since the early 1990s a large number of industrial and a growing number of developing countries now have domestic inflation targets administered by independent and transparent central banks these countries place few restrictions on capital mobility and allow their exchange rates to float the domestic focus of monetary policy in these countries does not have any obvious international cost inflation targeters have lower exchange rate volatility and less frequent sudden stops of capital flows than similar countries that do not target inflation inflation targeting countries also do not have current accounts or international reserves that look different from other countries this system was not planned and does not rely on international coordination there is no role for a center country the imf or gold it is durable in contrast to other monetary regimes no country has been forced to abandon an inflation targeting regime succinctly it is the diametric opposite of the post war system bretton woods reversed

monetary policy games inflationary bias and openness abstract when a country s central bank has higher output objectives than those of wage setters the noncooperative nash equilibrium contains an inflationary bias which is higher the flatter the economy s aggregate supply curve an economy s openness from the input side is an exogenous observable characteristic that provides a direct way of testing the theory when the imported intermediate goods displace capital labor in production a higher degree of openness flattens steepens the economy s aggregate supply curve and increases decreases the inflationary bias

globalization the output inflation tradeoff and inflation abstract this paper provides comprehensive evidence on the relation between inflation and globalization defined here as trade and financial openness using a large cross section of 91 countries over the period 1985 2004 we establish two main empirical regularities both higher trade and financial openness i reduce central banks inflation bias yielding lower average inflation and ii are associated with a larger output inflation tradeoff this evidence is at odds with the standard barro gordon framework which would require globalization to have a negative effect on the output inflation tradeoff to yield lower equilibrium inflation but it is consistent with a recent strand of new keynesian models emphasizing the role of imperfect competition and nominal rigidities our findings also support the relevance of the time inconsistency hypothesis which underlies the theoretical models predicting a relation between globalization and inflation for the oecd subsample however we do not find an effect of openness on inflation the output inflation tradeoff suggesting that these countries have created an institutional framework for central banks that eliminates distortions due to the time inconsistency problem

globalization pressures and the state the worldwide spread of central bank independence the authors examine the impact of globalization on state structures in the specific instance of the central bank following the world system world society and neoinstitutional perspectives in sociology they assume that states are in cultural political and economic competition with each other thereby seeking to maintain their position and status frequently by adopting organizational forms or practices that make them isomorphic with their environment the authors predict that countries boost the independence of their central bank from the political power as their exposure to foreign trade investment and multilateral lending increases they also model the cross national dynamic process of diffusion of central bank independence by examining the impact of cohesive and role equivalent trade relationships between countries they find support for their hypotheses with information on 71 countries between 1990 and 2000

the effects of lump sum subsidies on the structure of production and productivity in regulated industries abstract the theoretical model developed in this paper indicates that a lump sum subsidy granted to a monopolist facing a binding rate of return constraint will result in a higher level of capital employed and output produced furthermore production costs at any level of output will be higher compared to the pre subsidy situation the empirical results emanating from the application of the model to the bus transport sector indicate that lump sum subsidies have been factor biased and have led to higher costs as predicted by the model the average rate of productivity growth has been reduced by 0 60 percentage points per year as a direct result of the lump sum subsidy

an ekc pattern in historical perspective carbon dioxide emissions technology fuel prices and growth in sweden 1870 1997 the environmental kuznets curve ekc has been subject to research and debate since the early 1990s this articleexamines the inverted u trajectory of swedish co2 emissions during an extended time

testing the transparency benefits of inflation targeting evidence from private sector forecasts abstract using inflation forecast data for 11 it adoption countries it adoption is found to promote convergence in forecast errors suggesting that it enhances transparency this result which is subjected to several robustness checks and found to be robust supports morris and shin s 2002 contention that better public information is most beneficial for forecasters with bad private information however it does not support their hypothesis that better public information could make private forecasts less accurate

inflation in open economies abstract this paper relates the time consistent inflation rate to the degree of trade openness of an economy the mechanism linking the welfare effects of monetary surprises and hence the incentives to inflate to openness does not rely on a large country terms of trade effect but rather is due to imperfect competition and nominal price rigidity in the non traded sector the empirical evidence supports the main predictions of the model 1997 elsevier science b v

the environmental kuznets curve does one size fit all abstract this paper uses a new panel data set on state level sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxide emissions from 1929 1994 to test the appropriateness of the one size fits all reduced form regression approach commonly used in the environmental kuznets curve literature empirical results provide initial evidence that an inverted u shape characterizes the relationship between per capita emissions and per capita incomes at the state level parameter estimates suggest however that previous studies which restrict cross sections to undergo identical experiences over time may be presenting statistically biased results

the modern history of exchange rate arrangements a reinterpretation we develop a novel system of reclassifying historical exchange rate regimes one key difference between our study and previous classifications is that we employ monthly data on market determined parallel exchange rates going back to 1946 for 153 countries our approach differs from the imf official classification which we show to be only a little better than random it also differs radically from all previous attempts at historical reclassification our classification points to a rethinking of economic performance under alternative exchange rate regimes indeed the breakup of bretton woods had less impact on exchange rate regimes than is popularly believed