what drives deregulation economics and politics of the relaxation of bank branching restrictions this paper investigates private interest public interest and political institutional theories of regulatory change to analyze state level deregulation of bank branching restrictions using a hazard model we find that interest group factors related to the relative strength of potential winners large banks and small bank dependent firms and losers small banks and the rival insurance firms can explain the timing of branching deregulation across states during the last quarter century the same factors also explain congressional voting on interstate branching deregulation while we find some support for each theory the private interest approach provides the most compelling overall explanation of our results

occupational choice and the process of development this paper models economic development as a process of institutional transformation by focusing on the interplay between agents occupational decisions and the distribution of wealth because of capital market imperfections poor agents choose working for a wage over self employment and wealthy agents become entrepreneurs who monitor workers only with sufficient inequality however will there be employment contracts otherwise there is either subsistence or self employment thus in static equilibrium the occupational structure depends on distribution since the latter is itself endogenous we demonstrate the robustness of this result by extending the model dynamically and studying examples in which initial wealth distributions have long run effects in one case the economy develops either widespread cottage industry self employment or factory production employment contracts depending on the initial distribution in the other example it develops into prosperity or stagnation

developing a stress testing framework based on market risk models the basel 2 accord requires regulatory capital to cover stress tests yet no coherent and objective framework for stress testing portfolios exists we propose a new methodology for stress testing in the context of market risk models that can incorporate both volatility clustering and heavy tails empirical results compare the performance of eight risk models with four possible conditional and unconditional return distributions over different rolling estimation periods when applied to major currency pairs using daily data spanning more than 20 years we find that stress test results should have little impact on current levels of foreign exchange regulatory capital

banking development socioeconomic structure and income inequality abstract using rich unique data from the italian local credit markets provinces this paper investigates the impact of local banking development on income inequality and the role of the socioeconomic structure in this link exploiting the italian historical banking regulation to instrument for the local presence of bank branches we find that local banking development mitigates income inequality however the finance inequality nexus manifests itself only in relatively advanced areas when we study the structural channels of influence we uncover evidence that banking development can reduce inequality by affecting geographical mobility and urbanization while it has modest effects through the development of material infrastructures and human capital

the finance growth nexus evidence from bank branch deregulation this paper provides evidence that financial markets can directly affect economic growth by studying the relaxation of bank branch restrictions in the united states we find that the rates of real per capita growth in income and output increase significantly following intrastate branch reform we also argue that the observed changes in growth are the result of changes in the banking system improvements in the quality of bank lending not increased volume of bank lending appear to be responsible for faster growth

bank integration and state business cycles we investigate how integration of bank ownership across states has affected economic volatility within states in theory bank integration could cause higher or lower volatility depending on whether credit supply or credit demand shocks predominate in fact year to year fluctuations in a state s economic growth fall as its banks become more integrated via holding companies with banks in other states as the bank linkages between any pair of states increase fluctuations in those two states tend to converge we conclude that interstate banking has made state business cycles smaller but more alike i introduction the united states banking system was once anything but united until 1978 every state in the union barred banks from other states so instead of one national banking system we had more like 50 little banking systems one per state 1 once states opened their borders to out of state banks bank holding companies marched in and bought up or merged with banks all over the country in 1975 just 10 percent of the bank assets in the typical state were owned by a multistate bank holding company by 1994 this interstate bank asset ratio had risen to 60 percent figure i our paper investigates how the advent of interstate banking integration in the united states has affected economic volatility within states with the united states balkanized banking system the fate of a state and its banks were closely tied as went the state so went the banks the farm price deflation in the early 1980s bankrupted many farmers and many farm banks falling oil prices in the mid 1980s wiped out a lot of texans and a lot of texas banks shocks to commodity prices probably caused these contractions but frictions in the banking sector may have aggravated them by allowing a freer flow of bank capital and lending among states we maintain that interstate banking will reduce the drag that banking frictions can have on economic contractions

financial technology shocks and the case of the missing m2 m2 growth was unusually weak in the early 1990s when its velocity soared although m2 growth subsequently recovered its velocity plateaued at a high level giving rise to a case of missing money these swings in m2 growth have accompanied opposite swings in bond mutual fund inflows m2 growth is better tracked and the missing m2 problem is resolved when money models are modified to account for shifts in bond mutual fund costs this approach avoids the capital gains and portfolio substitution problems posed by adding bond or equity funds to m2 while capturing the substitution effects relevant to money demand

wages and human capital in the u s financial industry 1909 2006 we study the allocation and compensation of human capital in the u s finance industry over the past century across time space and subsectors we find that financial deregulation is associated with skill intensity job complexity and high wages for finance employees all three measures are high before 1935 and after 1980 but not in the interim period workers in the finance industry earn the same education adjusted wages as other workers until 1990 and significantly more afterward by 2006 the premium is 40 on average and 200 for top earners and ceos earnings risk and firm size effects account for some of the premium but the majority does not appear to be sustainable

finance and employment evidence from u s banking reforms abstract economic theory offers competing hypotheses about how the cost and availability of finance influence labor market outcomes making use of the u s banking reforms between the 1970s and the 1990s as a quasi natural experiment this paper studies the impact of credit market development on employment this paper documents the significant effects of these reforms on employment growth potential channels between finance and employment are also investigated changes in the growth of the number of self employed individuals the entry and exit of firms and investment growth do not explain most of the employment growth following the reforms the reforms had a substantially higher impact in industries with higher labor intensity which is consistent with the idea that labor has fixed costs that need to be financed

avoiding default the role of credit in the consumption collapse of 1930 high consumer indebtedness threatens future consumption spending if default is expensive consumer spending collapsed in 1930 turning a minor recession into the great depression households were shouldering an unprecedented burden of installment debt down payments were large contracts were short equity in durable goods was therefore acquired quickly missed installment payments triggered repossession reducing consumer wealth in 1930 because households lost all acquired equity cutting consumption was the only viable strategy in 1930 for avoiding default institutional changes lowered the cost of default by 1938 when recession began again indebted households chose to default rather than reduce consumption

has consumption inequality mirrored income inequality we revisit to what extent the increase in income inequality since 1980 was mirrored by consumption inequality we do so by constructing an alternative measure of consumption expenditure using a demand system to correct for systematic measurement error in the consumer expenditure survey our estimation exploits the relative expenditure of high and low income households on luxuries versus necessities this double differencing corrects for measurement error that can vary over time by good and income we find consumption inequality tracked income inequality much more closely than estimated by direct responses on expenditures jel d31 d63 e21

the spirit of capitalism and savings behavior abstract this paper presents a capitalist spirit model of savings by including wealth in the intertemporal utility function while this model includes the life cycle model and bequest model as two special cases it sheds light on why wealth holding has tended to increase with age why decumulation of wealth after retirement has not happened and why households with and without children have not shown significant differences in their savings behavior the capitalist spirit approach is especially useful for understanding savings by the rich and savings across countries and over time jel e21 b10

the distributional effects of capital account liberalization abstract episodes of account liberalization increase the gini measure of inequality based on panel data estimates for 149 countries from 1970 to 2010 these episodes are also associated with a persistent increase in the share of income going to the top we investigate three channels through which these impacts could occur first the impact of liberalization on inequality is stronger where credit markets lack depth and financial inclusion is low positive impacts of liberalization on poverty rates also vanish when financial inclusion is low second the impact on inequality is also stronger when liberalization is followed by a financial crisis third liberalization seems to alter the relative bargaining power of firms and workers the labor share of income falls in the aftermath of capital account liberalization

earnings inequality and mobility in the united states evidence from social security data since 1937 this paper uses social security administration longitudinal earnings micro data since 1937 to analyze the evolution of inequality and mobility in the united states annual earnings inequality is u shaped decreasing sharply up to 1953 and increasing steadily afterward short term earnings mobility measures are stable over the full period except for a temporary surge during world war ii virtually all of the increase in the variance in annual log earnings since 1970 is due to increase in the variance of permanent earnings as opposed to transitory earnings mobility at the top of the earnings distribution is stable and has not mitigated the dramatic increase in annual earnings concentration since the 1970s long term mobility among all workers has increased since the 1950s but has slightly declined among men the decrease in the gender earnings gap and the resulting substantial increase in upward mobility over a lifetime for women are the driving force behind the increase in long term mobility among all workers

modeling credit card borrowing a comparison of type i and type ii tobit approaches this study focuses on credit cards as a borrowing medium using 1998 survey of consumer finance data the type ii tobit approach used here overcomes a shortcoming of the conventional type i tobit model which restricts the coefficients of the binary borrowing decision the first step and balance level decision the second step to have the same sign by separately estimating the first and second steps as reduced form functions in which the overall effects of supply and demand are incorporated the type ii tobit procedure yields more consistent results with other studies and quantifies the marginal effect elasticity of a particular determinant for practical uses more than 11 000 bank and nonbank holding companies issued credit cards in 1997 among these firms the top 50 issuers market share is 90 4 and the 10 largest credit card issuers hold 57 3 of total outstanding balances bank holding company revenue from interest on outstanding balances is 57 5 billion which is 77 8 of the total revenue of 73 9 billion moreover about 80 of 102 million u s households own at least one credit card demand for credit cards consists of two components one being the demand as a transaction medium and the other being the demand as a borrowing medium over 68 of bank type credit card holders use their credit cards only as a transaction medium 1 which means that they pay off their balances in full each month cargill and wendel 1996 however other credit card holders use their cards as a source of short term lowamount borrowing or as an instrument for consumption smoothing this study focuses on credit cards as a borrowing medium total household debts have been investigated in other studies relating household debt levels to credit or liquidity constraints using a two step selection approach duca and rosenthal 1993 examine the extent to which borrowing constraints restrict household access to debt and the manner in which lenders vary debt limits across borrowers crook 2001 investigates the determinants of credit constraints and the factors in the amount of household debt with a multistage model however it is necessary to separate the credit card debt from other household debts in the sense that every credit card user could borrow without incurring a transaction cost brito and hartley 1995 provide a theoretical model in which the equilibrium interest rate can be very high and inflexible under the

land leasing and local government behaviour in china evidence from beijing since 2004 two auction mechanisms listing auctions and tender auctions have played a dominant role in land lease arrangements for real estate development in beijing listing auctions in land markets are similar to general english auctions where bidders offer the highest price to win however in tender auctions winners are determined by the bidding price and the bidder s financial capability and reputation based on granted land parcels from 2006 to 2012 in beijing this paper attempts to examine the price differences between the two auctions and the role of land auction in urban development and price stabilisation we find that land policy in beijing which aims to stabilise land prices and to provide low price residences has been integrated with urban development planning in terms of spatial and density pattern land leasing in beijing is not only a land policy but also a part of the strategy framework of local development

inequality leverage and crises the paper studies how high leverage and crises can arise as a result of changes in the income distribution empirically the periods 1920 1929 and 1983 2007 both exhibited a large increase in the income share of the rich a large increase in leverage for the remainder and an eventual financial and real crisis the paper presents a theoretical model where these features arise endogenously as a result of a shift in bargaining powers over incomes a financial crisis can reduce leverage if it is very large and not accompanied by a real contraction but restoration of the lower income group s bargaining power is more effective

consumer bankruptcy a fresh start consumer bankruptcy provides partial insurance against bad luck but by driving up interest rates makes life cycle smoothing more difficult we argue that to assess this trade off one needs a quantitative model of consumer bankruptcy with three key features life cycle component idiosyncratic earnings uncertainty and expense uncertainty exogenous negative shocks to household balance sheets we find that transitory and persistent earnings shocks have very different implications for evaluating bankruptcy rules more persistent shocks make the bankruptcy option more desirable larger transitory shocks have the opposite effect our findings suggest the current us bankruptcy system may be desirable for reasonable parameter values jel d14 d91 k35

income distribution and macroeconomics this paper analyzes the role of wealth distribution in macroeconomics through investment in human capital it is shown that in the presence of credit markets imperfections and indivisibilities in investment in human capital the initial distribution of wealth affects aggregate output and investment both in the short and in the long run as there are multiple steady states this paper therefore provides an additional explanation for the persistent differences in per capita output across countries furthermore the paper shows that cross country differences in macroeconomic adjustment to aggregate shocks can be attributed among other factors to differences in wealth and income distribution across countries

welfare implications of the bankruptcy reform act of 1999 abstract in recent years personal bankruptcy has become an important issue to consumers creditors and legislators alike over 40 billion dollars of unsecured debt were discharged in 1998 by 1 44 million households these losses have led legislators to propose a variety of changes in bankruptcy law the most important and recent of which is the bankruptcy reform act of 1999 ba99 i develop a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of personal bankruptcy to investigate the trade off between the consumption smoothing role of bankruptcy and the interest rate and deadweight costs it imposes i find that stringent means tests would reduce filing rates only slightly and would have only modest welfare consequences on the other hand the elimination of bankruptcy altogether is found to have substantial benefits this result is robust to income shock persistence and to stringency in the application of means tests

optimal taxation without state contingent debt in an economy studied by lucas and stokey tax rates inherit the serial correlation structure of government expenditures belying barro s earlier result that taxes should be a random walk for any stochastic process of government expenditures to recover a version of barro s random walk tax smoothing outcome we modify lucas and stokey s economy to permit only risk free debt having only risk free debt confronts the ramsey planner with additional constraints on equilibrium allocations beyond one imposed by lucas and stokey s assumption of complete markets the ramsey outcome blends features of barro s model with lucas and stokey s in our model the contemporaneous effects of exogenous government expenditures on the government deficit and taxes resemble those in lucas and stokey s model but incomplete markets put a near unit root component into government debt and taxes an outcome like barro s however we show that without ad hoc limits on the government s asset holdings outcomes can diverge in importa

the circular relationship between inequality leverage and financial crises in this paper we put into perspective the recent literature which points to inequality as a possible cause of credit bubbles by reintegrating it into a more general analysis on the two way relationship between inequality and finance we focus more specifically on situations where high inequalities and widespread access to credit coexist and argue that even when institutions maintain more or less equal access to finance there may be a dynamic positive circular relationship between inequality and financial development however even if there is some evidence in the literature of a positive causal impact of inequality on credit this does not preclude other important cofounding factors the conclusions concerning the distributional impact of finance are more ambiguous a survey of the empirical literature highlights several issues that must be tackled first endogeneity reverse causality and coincidental factors are major concerns second the choice of consistent measurements for the key variables both credit and inequality has strong empirical implications and must be grounded on relevant theoretical channels third those circular dynamics have substantial policy implications for emerging economies since an increasing number face a joint increase in inequality and credit

technological change and the households demand for currency abstract it is shown that accounting for technology variations across households and periods is important to obtain theoretically consistent estimates of the demand for currency an inventory model is presented where the withdrawal technology is explicitly modeled both the level and the interest rate elasticity of cash holdings depend on the withdrawal technology available to households empirical proxies for the household withdrawal technology based on the diffusion of cash withdrawal points measured at city level are used to test the model predictions on a panel of italian household data over the 1993 2004 period

household debt and income inequality 1963 2003 i construct an economy with heterogeneous agents that mimics the time series behavior of the earnings distribution in the united states from 1963 to 2003 agents face aggregate and idiosyncratic shocks and accumulate real and financial assets i estimate the shocks that drive the model using data on income inequality aggregate income and measures of financial liberalization i show how the model economy can replicate two empirical facts the trend and cyclical behavior of household debt and the diverging patterns in consumption and wealth inequality over time while business cycle fluctuations can account for the short run changes in household debt its prolonged rise of the 1980s and the 1990s can be quantitatively explained only by the concurrent increase in income inequality

inequality credit and financial crises in the three decades leading up to the financial crisis of 2008 09 income inequality rose across much of the developed world this has led to a vigorous debate as to whether widening inequality was somehow to blame for the crisis by driving private sector credit booms despite growing interest empirical evidence on an inequality fragility relationship is limited based on a panel analysis of 18 oecd organisation for economic co operation and development countries for the years 1970 2007 this study provides evidence of a positive relationship between income concentration and private sector indebtedness once other traditional drivers are controlled for if confirmed the implications of this result are as follows i the view that the distribution of income is irrelevant to macroeconomic stability as implicit in mainstream approaches needs further investigation and ii in order to make the financial system more robust policy makers should cast the net wider than monetary policy and regulatory reforms and consider the effects of changes to distributive patterns

credit supply and the price of housing we show that since 1994 branching deregulations in the u s have signi cantly af fected the supply of mortgage credit and ultimately house prices with deregulation the number and volume of originated mortgage loans increase while denial rates fall but the deregulation has no eect on a placebo sample formed of mortgage compa nies that should not be aected by the regulatory change this sharpens the causal interpretation of our results deregulation acts to relax access to mortgage credit and pushes the demand for house ownership outwards interestingly the fraction of securi tized mortgage loans remains unchanged through the process we nd evidence house prices rise with branching deregulation and particularly in metropolitan areas where construction is inelastic for topographic reasons we document these results in a large sample of counties across the u s we also focus on a reduced cross section formed by counties on each side of a state border where a regression discontinuity approach is possible our conclusions are strengthened jel classi cation numbers g21 g10 g12

entrepreneurial finance credit cards and race this paper examines the impact of financial deregulation on entrepreneurship we assess the impact of credit card deregulation on transitions into self employment using state level removal of credit card interest rate ceilings following the us supreme court s 1978 marquette decision as a quasi natural experiment we find that credit card deregulation increases the probability of entrepreneurial entry with a particularly strong effect for black entrepreneurs we demonstrate that these effects are magnified in states with a history of racial discrimination and link the results to discriminationbased barriers to entry 2012 elsevier b v all rights reserved

credit and the labour share evidence from us states we investigate the role of credit markets as a cause for changes in the us labour share causal evidence is provided that the labour share declined between 0 8 and 1 2 percentage points following the interstate banking deregulation explaining more than half of the overall reduction during that period the lower costs of credit and greater bank competition in each state are mechanisms that led to the decline to quantify the relationship between credit and factor payments we calibrate a model with financial frictions and highlight financial development as a potential channel for the reduction in labour share observed globally

house prices borrowing constraints and monetary policy in the business cycle i develop a general equilibrium model with sticky prices credit constraints nominal loans and asset prices changes in asset prices modify agents borrowing capacity through collateral value changes in nominal prices affect real repayments through debt deflation monetary policy shocks move asset and nominal prices in the same direction and are amplified and propagated over time the financial accelerator is not constant across shocks nominal debt stabilises supply shocks making the economy less volatile when the central bank controls the interest rate i discuss the role of equity debt indexation and household and firm leverage in the propagation mechanism finally i find that monetary policy should not target asset prices as a means of reducing output and inflation volatility

comparative forecasting performance of symmetric and asymmetric conditional volatility models of an exchange rate abstract the relative out of sample forecasting quality of symmetric and asymmetric conditional volatility models of an exchange rate differs according to the symmetric and asymmetric evaluation criteria both symmetric and asymmetric forecast competitors of currency volatility are biased and systematically over predict volatility

the costs of wrongful discharge laws we estimate the effects on employment and wages of wrongful discharge protections adopted by u s state courts during the last three decades we find robust evidence that one wrongful discharge doctrine the implied contract exception reduced state employment rates by 0 8 to 1 7 the initial impact is largest for female and less educated workers those who change jobs frequently while the longer term effect is greater for older and more educated workers those most likely to litigate by contrast we find no robust employment or wage effects of two other widely recognized wrongful discharge laws the public policy and good faith exceptions i introduction w hat is the price of protection this paper estimates the social costs in possibly lower employment and wages of common law protections designed to protect american workers from wrongful discharge economic the ory suggests that employment protection is a double edged sword it provides employment security to incumbent work ers but makes employers reluctant to hire leading to a less flexible labor market with potentially lower employment and wages it is frequently argued that the stagnant employment performance of many european economies during the 1980s and 1990s eurosclerosis can be attributed in part to the significant employment protection given european workers see lazear 1990 and blanchard and wolfers 1999 krueger and pischke 1998 provide a contrasting view among the obstacles to testing this hypothesis is the difficulty of making reliable inferences using cross country comparisons in this paper we study the effects of employment protec tion in the united states numerous scholars have examined the effects of american federal employment laws on em ployment and unemployment acemoglu and angrist 2001 deleire 2000 and jolls and prescott 2004 present evidence that the americans with disabilities act ada decreased employment of disabled persons oyer and schaefer 2000 2002 conclude that the federal civil rights act of 1991 increased the frequency of mass layoffs and raised the returns to experience for workers who have a downward sloping age litigation profile hahn todd and van der klaauw 2001 also evaluate the costs of federal antidiscrimination laws a major hurdle for each of these studies is that these federal statutes apply all at once to the entire country this makes it difficult to separate the effects of the statute from all other changes occurring simulta neously cf donohue 1998 donohue and heckman

enjoying the quiet life under deregulation evidence from adjusted lerner indices for u s banks abstract the quiet life hypothesis posits that firms with market power incur inefficiencies rather than reap monopolistic rents we propose a simple adjustment to lerner indices to account for the possibility of forgone rents to test this hypothesis for a large sample of u s commercial banks we find that adjusted lerner indices are significantly larger than conventional lerner indices and trending upward over time instrumental variable regressions reject the quiet life hypothesis for cost inefficiencies however lerner indices adjusted for profit inefficiencies reveal a quiet life among u s banks

economic consequences of deregulation evidence from the removal of voting cap in indian banks abstract we examine the effect of the 2005 banking regulation amendment bill and the 2011 banking laws amendment bill proposals for removal of the 10 percent voting rights cap in indian banks the 2011 banking laws bill was first introduced in 2005 but lapsed with the dissolution of the 14th lok sabha the bill was passed in december 2012 and raised the voting cap in private sector banks from 10 to 26 percent we present evidence that the removal of the voting cap enhances the value of votes of bank stocks by reducing the wedge between cash flow and control rights thus increasing monitoring and the probability of takeover post deregulation analysis reveals that the passage of the bill was followed by increasing blockholders number and percentage of shares held in larger and government banks furthermore a stronger negative relationship between banks profitability and size as well as share of non performing loans is observed this study makes an important contribution to the growing literature on the valuation impact and efficiency gains of liberalization of ownership restrictions in emerging markets as well as the rich literature on corporate governance and control relating to the value of voting privilege in companies with disparate voting rights

the effects of circular economy on economic growth a quasi natural experiment in china abstract this study aims to assess the impact of circular economy on economic growth in the process of rapid economic growth china has been facing with the pressure of insufficient supply of resources and environmental pollution which makes the development model of circular economy ce an imperative transformation china has carried out two batches of ce pilot cities to promote the construction of ecological economy and change the traditional economic development model which is employed as a quasi natural experiment in this study the effect of this ce policy on the local economic growth is explored using the propensity score matching psm method and difference in differences did model and a panel data of 163 chinese cities from the year of 2001 2012 has been used the results show that the growth rate of gdp of the pilot cities decreases significantly but the economic decline gradually recovers as time goes on in addition this study further conducts the regional heterogeneity analysis to compare the economic growth of ce pilot cities in three economic zones i e eastern central and western economic zones and the sectoral heterogeneity analysis to compare the economic growth of three main industries i e primary secondary and tertiary industries finally discussion of above results is presented and recommendations for the promotion of urban ce are proposed

big bad banks the winners and losers from bank deregulation in the united states we assess the impact of bank deregulation on the distribution of income in the united states from the 1970s through the 1990s most states removed restrictions on intrastate branching which intensified bank competition and improved bank performance exploiting the cross state cross time variation in the timing of branch deregulation we find that deregulation materially tightened the distribution of income by boosting incomes in the lower part of the income distribution while having little impact on incomes above the median bank deregulation tightened the distribution of income by increasing the relative wage rates and working hours of unskilled workers

empirical evidence on payment media costs and switch points abstract this paper recovers micro cost schedules of consumers payment instruments from aggregate transaction costs we assume that only two moments of the size distribution of payments matter the number and volume of transactions these variables explain the transaction costs of currency and debit card payments with much precision for a representative 1998 sample of dutch retailers the results imply that low fixed transaction costs favor currency for small transactions while low variable transaction costs favor debit card payments for large transactions the switch point is 30 euros but including the hidden costs of currency would lower it to 13 euros

marriage markets and money a coasian theory of household formation this article integrates search based models of marriage and money we think about households as organizations the way coase thinks about firms as alternatives to markets that become more attractive when transactions costs increase in the model individuals consume market and home produced goods and home production is facilitated by marriage market frictions including taxes search and bargaining problems increase the marriage propensity the inflation tax encourages marriage because being single is cash intensive microdata confirm singles use cash more than married people we use macrodata over many countries to investigate how marriage responds to inflation taxation and other variables

financial development growth and the distribution of income a paradigm is presented in which both the extent of financial intermediation and the rate of economic growth are endogenously determined financial intermediation promotes growth because it allows a higher rate of return to be earned on capital and growth in turn provides the means to implement costly financial structures thus financial intermediation and economic growth are inextricably linked in accord with the goldsmith mckinnon shaw view on economic development the model also generates a development cycle reminiscent of the kuznet hypothesis in particular in the transition from a primitive slow growing economy to a developed fast growing one a nation passes through a stage in which the distribution of wealth across the rich and poor widens

forecasting exchange rate volatility abstract exchange rate volatility forecasts are obtained using a fractionally integrated garch model gains in forecast accuracy associated with a fractionally integrated model compared to a garch or igarch model are shown to be substantial in many cases

credit constraints and demand for higher education evidence from financial deregulation abstract we use staggered banking deregulation across states in the united states to examine the impact of the resulting increased credit supply on college enrollment from the 1970s to the early 1990s our research design produces estimates that are not confounded by wealth effects due to changes in income or housing wealth we find that lifting banking restrictions raises college enrollment by about 2 6 percentage points 4 9 we rule out alternative interpretations by examining results for different income groups and bankrupt households we also find similar effects for two year or four year college completion and supporting evidence in household educational borrowing

microfoundations and the demand for money the reader should note that i write this piece in a style that aims to be accessible to that much neglected representative agent the woman on the eurostar train hence unlike the man on the clapham omnibus i assume my intrepid traveller has reasonable knowledge of monetary economics and econometrics but not of the details of the demand for money space constraints force me to indulge in a certain amount of poetic licence but i hope this results in poetic justice there have been many wars fought on this particular battlefield some with almost religious zeal on the theoretical side of the debate we sometimes have the equivalent of religious fundamentalists be they muslims jews christians etc who would dismiss almost any evidence unless it were associated with a strong microtheoretic basis as laid down in the koran talmud or bible the empirical side encompasses agnostics atheists as well as born again econometricians pure theorists inhabit the sunlit uplands while applied economists and policymakers flounder in the muddy plain below occasionally gaining solace from their copy of zen and the art of motorcycle maintenance in general in economics we do not have the luxury of controlled experiments as is the case in the natural sciences what distinguishes good microfoundations from bad and how to weight priors and statistical evidence is subject to much dispute leamer i983 hendry et al i990 as in religion sometimes there is the occasional miracle proclaimed after a suitable interval a new saint may be declared and disciples flock to the new shrine later doubts may arise as to whether a miracle really did occur human behaviour is difficult to explain let alone predict so the search for the equivalent of the holy grail ark of the covenant etc is bound to be arduous in scholarly journals we generally read of the success of the demand for money like diplomats who are sent abroad to lie for the good of their country publication may require applied economists to be somewhat economical with the actualite lovell i983 leamer i983 in this article i want to be as honest as possible about our success and failures in this area the prior information an armchair economist would consider when thinking about the demand for money over the past 40 years in western industrialised countries which have experienced moderate inflation might

do rising top incomes fuel credit expansion abstract this paper provides an empirical assessment of the effect of income inequality on credit dynamics in 12 advanced economies over the period 1948 2015 we use foreign communist influence as an instrument to identify exogenous variation in inequality and estimate the dynamic effect of a top income shock on credit over gdp the results suggest that the evolution of top incomes has persistent effects on credit expansion especially for mortgage and business loans

social norms savings behavior and growth we argue that many goods and decisions are not allocated or made through markets we interpret an agent s status as a ranking device that determines how well he or she fares in the nonmarket sector the existence of a nonmarket sector can endogenously generate a concern for relative position in for example the income distribution so that higher income implies higher status moreover it can naturally yield multiple equilibria it is thus possible to explain differences in growth rates across countries without recourse to differences in underlying preferences technologies or endowments different social organizations lead to different reduced form preferences which lead to different growth rates

the demand for credit cards evidence from the survey of consumer finances i introduction the credit card market has expanded rapidly over the past 20 years in 1983 65 of households held at least one card by 1998 about 74 did so the size of real balances on these cards more than tripled in this period analysts have proposed a number of explanations for the increase but untangling the main causes is complicated by the unique nature of the credit card financial product an individual who obtains a credit card has obtained the right to borrow a certain amount called the limit with no questions asked under predetermined payback rules thus credit cards involve both assets and liabilities the available limits are best thought of as assets which can be used by a consumer to hedge against future income shortfalls or just to facilitate paying for goods and thereby reducing the need to carry cash the asset and limit components of credit cards makes them similar to financial instruments for example the asset component is essentially an option a subject that has been studied extensively in the corporate finance literature the seminal work is black and scholes 1973 who developed a method for valuing an option washam and davis 1998 extend this method to the problem of valuing the liquidity of credit resources this body of literature suggests that for some people a credit card can be viewed as a source of liquid funds for business purposes moreover once a credit card is used it becomes a debt liability in effect these are loans that the user has taken on to cover an income shortfall or simply to make a purchase for which borrowing makes sense again a corporate equivalent would be line of credit borrowing see myers 1989 or miller et al 1998 for an introduction these similarities raise the question of what sort of sample one should analyze for a study of consumer use of credit cards in all likelihood many average consumers who use credit cards are actually business entrepreneurs who use the cards to finance small business considering that wealth is an important element of any study of credit cards one faces the further problem that small business wealth is hard to measure accurately some research lindh and ohlsson 1998 suggests that access to liquid credit such as credit cards can make the difference between becoming self employed or not dunn and holtz eakin 2000 argue that family financial capital can ease the transition to self employment although they do not discuss credit availability in their study their results are strong evidence that credit cards would also ease that transition other studies that focus on the role of liquid credit and entrepreneurial activity include meyer 1990 blanchflower and oswald 1998 cox and japelli 1990 and evans and jovanovich 1989 our focus here is not on the use of credit cards as a business financing tool however it is apparent from this literature that business finance certainly plays a powerful role in determining the use of credit cards by some owners the research suggests that entrepreneurs would be more likely to be using credit cards for financing business rather than for consumer purposes for this reason it is important to separate the self employed from the non self employed in our sample looking specifically at consumers the unusual nature of the credit card financial product raises interesting questions for empirical researchers who hope as we do to provide some estimates of the responsiveness of the credit card demand to standard price and income effects the object of this article is to raise these questions and then answer some of them estimating regression models using data from the survey of consumer finances scf specifically we make two empirical approaches first we model credit card demand as a two stage process with a consumer obtaining limits in the first stage and then borrowing some fraction of those limits in the second

job growth and finance are some financial institutions better suited to the early stages of development than others this paper combines firm level data from 89 countries with updated country level data on financial structure and uses two estimation approaches it finds that in low income countries labor growth is swifter in countries with a higher level of private credit gross domestic product the positive effect of bank credit is especially pronounced in industries that depend heavily on external finance and banking development is positively associated with more physical and human capital investment these findings are consistent with predictions from new structural economics in high income countries labor growth rates are increasing in the level of stock market capitalization which is also consistent with predictions from new structural economics although the analysis is unable to provide evidence that the association is causal it finds no evidence that small scale firms in low income countries benefit most from private credit market development rather the labor growth rates of larger capital intensive firms increase more with the level of private credit market development a finding consistent with the history based political economy view that banking systems in low income countries serve the interests of the elite rather than providing broad based access to financial services

the real impact of improved access to finance evidence from mexico this paper provides new evidence on the impact of access to finance on poverty it highlights an important channel through which access affects poverty the labor market the paper exploits the opening of banco azteca in mexico a unique natural experiment in which over 800 bank branches opened almost simultaneously in preexisting elektra stores importantly the bank has focused on previously underserved low income clients our key finding is a sizeable effect of access to finance on labor market activity and income levels especially among low income individuals and those located in areas with lower preexisting bank penetration

equilibrium in a production economy with an income tax this paper develops a method to study an infinite horizon production economy distorted by a state dependent income tax this setting permits taxes to depend on the capital stock an endogenous state variable and thus captures situations where the evolution for capital and taxes is jointly determined to solve this model the consumption function is represented as a fixed point of a nonlinear monotone operator that is defined such that its nth iteration computes the consumption function n steps away from the horizon for a corresponding finite horizon economy the oparator s monotonicity is exploited in proving the existence of and constructing an equilibrium copyright 1991 by the econometric society

the welfare effect of access to credit i present a model in which credit and outside money can be used as means of payment in order to analyze how access to credit aects welfare when credit markets feature limited participation allowing more agents to use credit has an ambiguous eect on welfare because it may make consumption risk sharing more ine cient i calibrate the model using u s data on credit card transactions and show that the increase in access to credit from 1990 to the near present has had a slightly negative impact on welfare

does inequality lead to a financial crisis abstract the recent global crisis has sparked interest in the relationship between income inequality credit booms and financial crises rajan 2010 and kumhof and ranciere 2011 propose that rising inequality led to a credit boom and eventually to a financial crisis in the us in the first decade of the 21st century as it did in the 1920s data from 14 advanced countries between 1920 and 2000 suggest these are not general relationships credit booms heighten the probability of a banking crisis but we find no evidence that a rise in top income shares leads to credit booms instead low interest rates and economic expansions are the only two robust determinants of credit booms in our data set anecdotal evidence from us experience in the 1920s and in the years up to 2007 and from other countries does not support the inequality credit crisis nexus rather it points back to a familiar boom bust pattern of declines in interest rates strong growth rising credit asset price booms and crises

performance pay and wage inequality an increasing fraction of jobs in the u s labor market explicitly pay workers for their performance using bonus pay commissions or piece rate contracts using data from the panel study of income dynamics we show that compensation in performance pay jobs is more closely tied to both observed and unobserved productive characteristics of workers than compensation in non performance pay jobs we also find that the return to these productive characteristics increased faster over time in performance pay than in non performance pay jobs we show that this finding is consistent with the view that underlying changes in returns to skill due for instance to technological change induce more firms to offer performance pay contracts and result in more wage inequality among workers who are paid for performance thus performance pay provides a channel through which underlying changes in returns to skill get translated into higher wage inequality we conclude that this channel accounts for 21 of the growth in the variance of male wages between the late 1970s and the early 1990s and for most of the increase in wage inequality above the eightieth percentile over the same period

credit cards and money demand a cross sectional study this study investigates credit card holding and the household demands for several monetary assets in a simultaneous equations framework it exploits the detailed data on household assets as well as demographic and preference characteristics in the 1983 survey of consumer finances a key finding is that consistent with theory a higher probability of credit card ownership implies lower demand for transaction balances with no effect on small time deposit balances copyright 1995 by ohio state university press

the social costs of unit banking restrictions abstract many u s commercial banks are prohibited from establishing more than one full service office location in the absence of free entry to the banking industry this constraint may force unit banks to operate with a socially inefficient combination of inputs moreover entry to the industry in unit banking states may be more difficult than in branching states where market entrants need not necessarily acquire a new charter if so existing unit banks could price their output above marginal social cost earning excess profits and imposing allocational inefficiencies this paper demonstrates empirically that unit banking restrictions in the united states impose statistically and economically significant deadweight social costs

does access to formal finance matter for welfare and inequality micro level evidence from nigeria using a treatment effects model decomposition techniques and representative household data from nigeria we study the welfare and inequality implications of access to formal finance while improving household welfare formal access to finance increases inter household inequalities despite ameliorating the inequality enhancing effect of urban residence and enhancing the inequality ameliorating effect of greater educational attainment the positive effect of access to formal finance on inequality is smaller than the effect of unobserved household characteristics indicating that welfare and equality enhancing strategies should follow a holistic approach as opposed to one focusing on one isolated policy variable at a time

forecasting volatility and volume in the tokyo stock market long memory fractality and regime switching abstract we investigate the predictability of both volatility and volume for a large sample of japanese stocks the particular emphasis of this paper is on assessing the performance of long memory time series models in comparison to their short memory counterparts since long memory models should have a particular advantage over long forecasting horizons we consider predictions of up to 100 days ahead in most respects the long memory models arfima figarch and the recently introduced multifractal model dominate over garch and arma models however while figarch and arfima also have quite a number of cases with dramatic failures of their forecasts the multifractal model does not suffer from this shortcoming and its performance practically always improves upon the naive forecast provided by historical volatility as a somewhat surprising result we also find that for figarch and arfima models pooled estimates i e averages of parameter estimates from a sample of time series give much better results than individually estimated models

the spirit of capitalism and stock market prices in existing theory wealth is no more valuable than its implied consumption rewards in reality investors acquire wealth not just for its implied consumption but for the resulting social status max m weber 1958 refers to this desire for wealth as the spirit of capitalism the authors examine both analytically and empirically implications of weber s hypothesis for consumption savings and stock prices when investors care about relative social status propensity to consume and risk taking behavior will depend on social standards and stock prices will be volatile the spirit of capitalism seems to be a driving force behind stock market volatility and economic growth copyright 1996 by american economic association

household inequality entrepreneurial dynamism and corporate financing economic theories provide conflicting hypotheses on how wealth inequality affects entrepreneurial dynamism to empirically investigate its impact we construct local measures of household wealth inequality based on financial rents home equity and 1880 farmland we identify its effects on entrepreneurship by instrumenting it with land distribution under the 1862 homestead act or us states removal of death taxes wealth inequality decreases firm entry and exit and the proportion of high tech businesses across metropolitan statistical areas there is also less redistribution into public goods supportive of entrepreneurship such as schooling and the judiciary income per capita consequently grows more slowly

forecasting the recovery from the great recession is this time different abstract this paper asks whether the slow recovery of the us economy from the trough of the great recession was anticipated and identifies some of the factors that contributed to surprises in the course of the recovery we construct a narrative using news reports and government announcements to identify policy and financial shocks we then compare forecasts and forecast revisions of gdp to the narrative successive financial and fiscal shocks emanating from europe together with self inflicted wounds from the political stalemate over the us fiscal situation help explain the slowing of the pace of an already slow recovery

effects of credit and debit cards on the currency demand we analyze the effects of credit and debit cards on the currency in circulation by using gmm estimation instead of using the data obtained by surveys we use monthly data obtained by an interbank institution that keeps the statistics of all credit and debit cards usage of a small open economy turkey for the period over 2002m1 2006m10 as expected from the theory we find that an increase in the usage of credit and debit cards leads to a decrease in the currency demand moreover the usage of the debit cards has a bigger effect on the money demand compared to the usage of the credit cards we also find that the effect of credit cards is mostly through purchases and the effect of debit cards is mostly through withdrawals

intra day and inter market volatility in foreign exchange rates four foreign exchange spot rate series recorded on an hourly basis for a six month period in 1986 are examined a seasonal garch model is developed to describe the time dependent volatility apparent in the percentage nominal return of each currency hourly patterns in volatility are found to be remarkably similar across currencies and appear to be related to the opening and closing of the worlds major markets robust lm tests designed to deal with the extreme leptokurtosis in the data fails to uncover any evidence of misspecification or the presence of volatility spillover effects between the currencies or across markets

do rural banks matter evidence from the indian social banking experiment lack of access to finance is often cited as a key reason why poor people remain poor this paper uses data on the indian rural branch expansion program to provide empirial evidence on this issue between 1977 and 1990 the indian central bank mandated that a commercial bank can open a branch in a location with one or more bank branches only if it opens four in locations with no bank branches we show that between 1977 and 1990 this rule caused banks to open relatively more rural branches in indian states with lower initial financial development the reverse is true outside this period we exploit this fact to identify the impact of opening a rural bank on poverty and output our estimates suggest that the indian rural branch expansion program significantly lowered rural poverty and increased non agricultural output

bank size and household financial sentiment surprising evidence from university of michigan surveys of consumers we analyze comparative advantages disadvantages of small and large banks in improving household sentiment regarding financial conditions we match sentiment data from the university of michigan surveys of consumers with local banking market data from 2000 to 2014 surprisingly the evidence suggests that large rather than small banks have significant comparative advantages in boosting household sentiment findings are robust to instrumental variables and other econometric methods additional analyses are consistent with both scale economies and the superior safety of large banks as channels behind the main findings these channels appear to more than offset stronger relationships with and greater trust in small banks

gender bias and credit access we extract an exogenous measure of gender bias from survey responses by descendants of u s immigrants on questions about the role of women in society we then use data on around 6 000 small business firms from 17 countries and find that in high gender bias countries female entrepreneurs are more likely to opt out of the loan application process and to resort to informal finance even though banks do not appear to actively discriminate against them these results are not driven by credit risk differences between female and male owned firms or by any idiosyncrasies in the set of countries in our sample