population growth and steady state welfare in an overlapping generations model abstract in one sector growth models an increase in the population growth rate raises the economy s growth rate but lowers steady state welfare or consumption per capita i show that in a two sector overlapping generations model it can raise the steady state welfare

location and attendance in major league baseball this study uses a travel cost model to analyse the attendance impacts on major league baseball mlb of the closest substitute mlb team it is found that the closer two teams are the lower attendance is at each team relative to two teams that are farther apart in addition when a new team moves into the area of an existing team there is an additional initial reduction in attendance for the incumbent team this has implications for actions aimed at changing the number of teams in mlb either by contraction or by possible antitrust approaches that would increase the number of teams especially in megalopolis markets further and consistent with past demand studies pricing is in the inelastic portion of gate demand and fan loyalty is a significant contributor to the estimation of gate attendance

from physical to human capital accumulation inequality and the process of development this paper develops a growth theory that captures the replacement of physical capital accumulation by human capital accumulation as a prime engine of growth along the process of development it argues that the positive impact of inequality on the growth process was reversed in this process in early stages of the industrial revolution when physical capital accumulation was the prime source of growth inequality stimulated development by channelling resources towards individuals with a higher propensity to save as human capital emerged as a growth engine equality alleviated adverse effects of credit constraints on human capital accumulation stimulating the growth process this research develops a growth theory that captures the endogenous replacement of physical capital accumulation by human capital accumulation as a prime engine of economic growth in the transition from the industrial revolution to modern growth the proposed theory offers a unified account for the effect of income inequality on the growth process during this transition it argues that the replacement of physical capital accumulation by human capital accumulation as a prime engine of economic growth changed the qualitative impact of inequality on the process of development in the early stages of the industrial revolution when physical capital accumulation was the prime source of economic growth inequality enhanced the process of development by channelling resources towards individuals whose marginal propensity to save is higher in the later stages of the transition to modern growth as human capital emerged as a prime engine of economic growth equality alleviated the adverse effect of credit constraints on human capital accumulation and stimulated the growth process the proposed theory unifies two fundamental approaches regarding the effect of income distribution on the process of development the classical approach and the credit market imperfection approach 1 the classical approach was originated by smith 1776 and was further interpreted and developed by keynes 1920 lewis 1954 kaldor 1957 and bourguignon 1981 according to this approach saving rates are an increasing function of wealth and inequality therefore channels resources towards individuals whose marginal propensity to save 1 the socio political economy approach provides an alternative mechanism equality diminishes the tendency for socio political instability or distortionary redistribution and hence it stimulates investment and economic growth see the comprehensive survey of benabou 1996b

the gender gap fertility and growth changes in fertility have long been recognized as important correlates of economic growth with the relationship between the level of fertility and the level of income per capita being one of the strongest observable correlations in cross country data this paper examines the linkages between fertility and growth theory the structure of the model is presented in sections on production couples decision making system dynamics and steady state equilibria the first component of the model is that increases in capital per worker raise womens relative wages since capital is more complementary to womens labor input than to mens the second component is that increasing womens relative wages reduces fertility by raising the cost of children more than household income finally lower fertility raises the level of capital per worker a positive feedback loop generates demographic transition a rapid decline in fertility accompanied by accelerated output growth

cheap children and the persistence of poverty this paper develops a theory of fertility that offers an explanation for the persistence of poverty within and across countries if educated individuals have a comparative advantage in raising educated children then parental fertility choice is shown to give rise to a poverty trap in which the poor choose high fertility rates with low investment in child quality moreover the impact of child quality choice on economic performance is amplified by the diluting effect of higher fertility on physical capital accumulation the theory proposes insights regarding the effects of inequality globalisation and life expectancy on economic growth and demographic transitions this paper develops a theory of fertility and child educational choice that offers an explanation for the persistence of poverty within and across countries the joint determination of the quality education and quantity of children in a household is studied under the key assumption that individuals productivity as teachers increases with their own human capital in contrast the minimum time cost associated with raising a child regardless of the child s quality the quantity cost is not affected by parental education as a result the price of child quantity relative to the price of child quality increases with individuals wages in particular for low wage individuals for whom the opportunity cost of time is low children of minimal quality are cheap this assumption therefore generates a comparative advantage for the poor in child quantity whereas high wage educated individuals have a comparative advantage in raising quality children consistent with the well known evidence poor households thus choose relatively high fertility rates with relatively low investment in their offspring s education and therefore their offspring are poor as well in contrast high income families choose low fertility rates with high investment in education and therefore high income persists in the dynasty evidence from the us provided by hanushek 1992 suggests that a trade off between quantity and quality of children does indeed exist hanushek argues that movements in family size could explain over half the variance in some test scores and that the elasticity of achievements with respect to the number of children in the family is 0 03 implying that the annual achievement growth of each child in a family will fall about 2 when a second child is added and about 0 5 when a sixth child is added 1

economic development and the division of production between households and markets a model is presented in which scale economies give market production a cost advantage over household production but in which market production is limited by the extent of the market the production process is viewed as a series of stages each further refining and specializing the product of the previous stage as processing proceeds the number of intermediate goods increases and markets thin out firms specialize in the early stages of production and house holds in the later stages as an economy grows production shifts out of households and into the market several other changes associated with economic development are also accounted for

tests for parameter instability in regressions with i 1 processes this article derives the large sample distributions of lagrange multiplier lm tests for parameter instability against several alternatives of interest in the context of cointegrated regression models the fully modified estimator of phillips and hansen is extended to cover general models with stochastic and deterministic trends the test statistics considered include the supf test of quandt as well as the lm tests of nyblom and of nabeya and tanaka it is found that the asymptotic distributions depend on the nature of the regressor processes that is if the regressors are stochastic or deterministic trends the distributions are noticeably different from the distributions when the data are weakly dependent it is also found that the lack of cointegration is a special case of the alternative hypothesis considered an unstable intercept so the tests proposed here may also be viewed as a test of the null of cointegration against the alternative of no cointegration the tests are applied to three data se

evolution and growth this paper presents an evolutionary growth theory that captures the interplay between the evolution of mankind and economic growth since the emergence of the human species this uni ed theory encompasses the observed evolution of population technology and income per capita in the long transition from an epoch of malthusian stagnation to sustained economic growth 2001 elsevier science b v all rights reserved jel classixcation b22 e10 o11 o14 o33 o40 j10 j13

import demand with rational expectations estimates for bauxite cocoa coffee and petroleum abstrac t we offer a method for establishing the distributed lag structure in import demand models a priori we consider a firm which imports raw materials in a world of uncertainty traditional considerations of adjustment and inventory holding costs lead to a forward looking import decision rule linear rational expectations modelling allows us to transform the forward looking rule into a finite distributed lag specification while the resulting model is similar in form to earlier empirical models it is not subject to the lucas critique the model is fitted to u s data over the period 1954 1980

measuring managerial efficiency the case of baseball in economic analysis the role of the entrepreneur is paramount to the production process the entrepreneur is engaged in a darwinian game of efficiently transforming scarce resource inputs into outputs in the modern business organization this role is delegated to managers despite the conceptual importance of the role of management in the production function very little is known about the actual effect on output of variations in managerial skill in part this is due to the lack of proprietory data in part it is due to difficulties in measuring the outputs and inputs of complex production processes in a meaningful way a number of investigators have employed the concept of the frontier production function as developed by forsund and hjalmarsson 1 and timmer 6 and more recently by schmidt and lovell 3 to measure the effect on technical and price efficiency of various property rights structures or institutional constraints to our knowledge estimates of managerial efficiency have not been obtained with firm specific data except for some regulated industries in this study we estimate managerial efficiency by manager and by firm managerial marginal revenue product the rate of change in managerial efficiency over years of experience and relative factor price efficiency we use major league baseball teams over the period 1961 1980 as our data source what is particularly appealing about the choice of major league baseball teams as the industry for analysis is that outputs win percent and inputs player skills are unambiguously measured and the production function is simply specified as shown by scully 5 our results indicate that managerial skill in baseball contributes very substantially to the production process the paper will evolve as follows first the concept of the frontier production function is briefly outlined then estimates of managerial efficiency by manager and by team are provided and discussed a managerial efficiency learning curve is estimated an estimate of managerial marginal revenue product provided and the managerial efficiency

quality trade and growth abstract this paper analyzes the roles of product quality and increasing returns in international division of labor and economic development because the qualities of different intermediate goods are highly complementary in producing the quality of the final good a poor economy will choose to be in autarky if its average level of human capital is sufficiently low thus the heterogeneity of human capital may hamper the division of labor further by linking quality trade and growth this model simultaneously explains the east asian miracle and the empirical finding of conditional convergence

social networks and inequality abstract about half of all vacancies are filled through networks of personal contact we consider the arrow loury conjecture that such labor market networks exacerbate inequality our central result is that referral networks display threshold behavior above a critical density of referrals qualified workers at all levels of the network are recruited with probability one below the threshold the probability of referral falls exponentially and workers low in the hierarchy are hired with probability zero an underclass emerges

violence instability and trade evidence from kenya s cut flower sector summary we examine the implications of the violence and instability following the 2007 kenyan elections and how it affected cut flower trade between kenya and the eu using the rotterdam demand model we find that the post election violence had a negative impact on eu imports from kenya equivalent to 33 million which is significant given the importance of flowers to kenya s economy results show that even a short period of violence can have an effect on trade since instability in an exporting country causes importers to source from other countries perceived as less risky persisting even when order is restored

fertility choice land and the malthusian hypothesis in a standard overlapping generations growth model with a fixed amount of land and endogenous fertility the competitive economy converges to a steady state with a zero population growth rate and positive consumption per capita the malthusian hypothesis is interpreted as a positive statement about the relationship between population growth and consumption per capita when production exhibits diminishing returns to labor and there is a fixed amount of land essential for production even when individuals care only about the number of their children and not about their children s welfare the equilibrium is such that they eventually would choose to have only one child for each adult hence if malthus s positive check on population is the result of the response of optimizing agents to competitively determined prices malthus s pessimistic conjecture is not necessarily true even though his other assumptions hold from authors

fertility and the size of the u s labor force this paper reviews and interprets from an economic perspective the demographic trends in the u s since the turn of the century the primary focus will be upon the interplay between the fertility and labor force participation of women and how they may be interpreted within simple economic models we will begin by stating what economic demography is and why careful analytic methods are needed section ii provides a brief demographic history of the u s section iii describes the major economic theories of fertility and section iv discusses the empirical performance of these theories section v discusses the linkages between fertility and the size of the labor force and section vi concludes excerpt

cointegration aggregate consumption and the demand for imports a structural econometric this paper uses a two good version of hall s 1978 representative agent permanent income model to derive a structural import demand equation for nondurable consumer goods under the identification restriction that taste shocks are stationary the model is shown to imply that log imports log domestic goods and the log relative price of imports are co integrated the data decisively reject the null hypothesis that imports the relative price of imports and the consumption of home goods are not co integrated we employ the non linear least squares technique recently proposed by phillips and loretan 1990 to estimate the parameters of the import demand equation the long run price elasticity of import demand is estimated to be 0 95 the elasticity of import demand with respect to a permanent increase in real spending is estimated to be 2 20 these estimates fall within the range reported in studies by helkie and hooper 1986 cline 1989 and the many studies surveyed by goldstein and kahn 1985 the message of this paper is that at least for non durable consumer goods it is possible to interpret the traditional import demand equation as a co integrating regression and to interpret the price and expenditure elasticities estimated from such a trade equation as a co integrating vector estimates of the co integrating vector can be used to recover estimates of the utility parameters of the representative household the similarity between the ols and phillips loretan estimates of the parameters suggests that the simultaneous equation bias is not large this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

analysing the technical efficiency of the spanish football league first division with a random frontier model this article analyses technical efficiency of football clubs in the spanish football league division 1 primera liga from the seasons 1995 1996 to 2004 2005 with an unbalanced panel data the random frontier model is used allowing the identification of random variables in the cost frontier it is concluded that the price of capital investment the number of points won and attendance are heterogeneous variables therefore no common public policy aiming to improve efficiency can embrace all of the clubs so that policies by clusters are required

an intergenerational model of population growth the problem of population growth has been only partially formulated in an intertemporal context therefore a link between population theory and economic growth theory is still missing this paper attempts to provide such a link by analyzing an intergenerational model of optimum population growth the model accommodates the idea that decisions on increases in population should consider the new population s quality of life this concept is elaborated upon in a static framework by gary becker and gregg lewis dennis de tray and robert willis other literature on population growth such as harold votey disregards this consideration altogether 2 more explicitly this paper assumes that the utility of each generation is a function of the level of its consumption and the number and utility of the newly born people we are thus led to consider the utility of an infinite number of generations this model differs from paul samuelson s intergenerational model of pure consumption in which the utility of each generation depends only on that generation s own consumption recently philip neher 1971 analyzed a model of fertility in primitive economies it is based on the assumption that parents use children as investments to insure future consumption needs neher s analysis focuses entirely on the pension motive for having children 3 our model assumes that fertility is determined so as to balance the parents welfare derived from additional children against that derived from the children s quality of life we first outline a general model of optimum population growth in order to discuss explicitly various economic aspects of population we use a simple case in the analysis section i sets up the basic model

a bayesian stochastic frontier of italian football this study analyses the technical efficiency of serie a italian football clubs during the 2004 2012 seasons with a bayesian stochastic frontier model using unique data extracted from clubs annual reports specifically the focus of the study is on assessing the impact effects on clubs efficiency whether they are big clubs they employ several foreign player they compete in european competitions and their involvement with football scandals in the italian football the empirical results reveal that efficiency varies among the clubs analysed and policy implications are derived

adjustment costs and international trade dynamics abstract this paper develops a model of trader behavior that is characterized by quadratic adjustment costs imperfect competition and rational expectations the model is fitted to data on aggregate trade flows between the united states and three of its largest trading partners tests against alternative specifications confirm the importance of imperfect competition and adjustment costs the hypothesis of rational expectations cannot be rejected the estimated price elasticities of trade flows are generally in the range reported by previous researchers but the activity elasticities are significantly higher

cost efficiency of french rugby clubs this article analyses the cost efficiency of french first league rugby clubs using a stochastic frontier model the frontier estimation confirmed that the model fits the data well with all coefficients correctly signed and in line with the theoretical requirements the results show that one of the clubs is operating efficiently with the majority of clubs clustered around 20 inefficiency policy implications are derived

the demand for league football a demand equation is estimated for total football league attendances for the period 1948 49 to 1979 80 plausible values are obtained for the elasticities of demand with respect to income and to a price variable which includes the cost of travel to the stadium the values imply that football spectating is an inferior good with a low price elasticity equations are also estimated for the league s separate divisions the implications of the results for the football league clubs are discussed

the problem of population and growth a review of the literature from malthus to contemporary models of endogenous population and endogenous growth abstract this paper deals with the evolution of the literature on the problem of population and growth from the classical period to the recent literature on endogenous growth and development the problem concerns two distinct issues 1 how to explain the observed covariation of the levels and rates of growth of per capita income and population size over time and space and 2 how to improve the human condition represented by these variables through an accommodating social policy the evolution of the literature we survey is reflected by the progressive treatment of key variables as endogenous rather than exogenous to the growth process it is also reflected by a shift from the historical concern about population explosion and its implications for growth to the more recent concern about the association between growth and population implosion in many developed countries

the brazilian soccer championship an efficiency analysis this article analyses the top brazilian football league from 2003 to 2011 by estimating a cost function and using a stochastic frontier model among the covariates the number of fans per club and club remoteness is taken into account the brazilian clubs are then ranked according to their technical efficiency during the 2000 2011 period based on the results the policy implication is presented and the economic implications arising from the study are also considered

barriers and the transition to modern growth abstract this paper argues that barriers affect both the beginning date and the subsequent pace of modern growth and taking into account this fact enriches our knowledge of cross country income differences the model matches the observed inverted u shape of cross country income differences which implies that a substantial fraction of current income differences is transitional hence the model requires smaller barriers to account for current income differences relative to models that focus only on steady states empirically i find that differences in the beginning dates of modern growth explain large differences in incomes

adjustment costs and import demand behavior evidence from canada and the united states abstract in this paper we examine whether adjustment costs are a significant source of the observed sluggish adjustment of canadian and us import demand we use a simple model of a utility maximizing domestic consumer under the assumption of integrated forcing variables to examine the importance of adjustment costs this formulation of the problem allows us to exploit the recently developed theory of cointegration to estimate the structural parameters of the model using a two step methodology moreover the formulation incorporates an element of forward looking behaviour into the decision process a feature that is important if one assumes adjustment costs are a significant source of persistence in import demand adjustment the empirical results from a euler equation imply that adjustment costs in canada and the united states are important

from smith to schumpeter a theory of take off and convergence to sustained growth abstract this paper proposes a theory of the emergence of modern schumpeterian growth that focuses on the within industry forces that regulate the response of firms and entrepreneurs to smithian market expansion and thus identifies an amplification mechanism that the literature has neglected because it solves the model in closed form the paper provides analytical insight on the forces that drive the economy s phase transition and the associated qualitative transformation of industrial activity the resulting s shaped path of gdp per capita replicates the key feature of the data an accelerating phase followed by a deceleration with convergence to a stationary growth rate the model also yields predictions for grand ratios like consumption gdp profits gdp and the distribution of income across factors of production

the adjustment of canadian import demand to changes in income prices and exchange rates the paper provides estimates of the sensitivity of canadian import demand to changes in income prices and exchange rates the model specification allows for the con sideration of long run elasticities as well as the dynamics of short run adjustment of imports to changes in these variables the estimated long run elasticities obtained are similar to those in previous studies it is also shown that canadian imports react quickly to changes in either foreign or domestic prices but that the reaction to changes in exchange rates is much slower

the division of labor coordination costs and knowledge this paper considers specialization and the division of labor a more extensive division of labor raises productivity because returns to the time spent on tasks are usually greater to workers who concentrate on a narrower range of skills the traditional discussion of the division of labor emphasizes the limitations to specialization imposed by the extent of the market we claim that the degree of specialization is more often determined by other considerations especially emphasized are various costs of coordinating specialized workers who perform complementary tasks and the amount of general knowledge available

the return of malthus resource constraints in an era of declining population growth abstract will natural resources comprise an important constraint on economic development in the 21st century we use a macroeconomic model mava to demonstrate the precise nature of this problem first we employ the model to demonstrate that resource constraints do not substantially limit future economic growth under parametric conditions prevailing in the period 1960 2010 second we examine the sorts of changed conditions that are unavoidable in the coming century and demonstrate that declining population growth and the increased dependency rates this implies is likely to result in increasingly important resource constraints ironically it is the decline in population growth rates and not the opposite that may occasion the return of malthusian constraints 1

linear rational expectations equilibrium laws of motion for selected u s raw material imports in this paper the authors develop and estimate time series models of the rational expectations equilibrium laws of m otion for several u s commodity imports bauxite cocoa coffee and petroleum the theoretical model is based upon the optimizing behavi or of firms that import in the presence of supply shocks delivery la gs and adjustment and inventory holding costs one of the important features of the empirical model is that the authors are able to estim ate elasticities that distinguish between responses to changes in the environment that importers expect to be relatively temporary versus relatively permanent copyright 1987 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

the dynamics of smithian growth this paper analyzes the evolution of an economy where growth is driven by increased specialization caused by the geographical expansion of markets it proves that such smithian growth exhibits generic threshold behavior below a critical density of transport linkages the economy is split into isolated local markets with limited specialization above the critical density these markets begin to fuse into a large economywide market causing growth to accelerate this allows an explicit test of the consensus among historians of sung dynasty china that the economic revolution during that period was a result of commercialization caused by the creation of a national waterway network

performance evaluation of the english premier football league with data envelopment analysis this paper uses data envelopment analysis dea to evaluate the performance of english premier league football clubs from 1998 99 to 2002 03 combining sport and financial variables the paper evaluates how close the clubs are relative to the frontier of best practices analysing how they manage sport as well as financial results managerial implications of the research are devised

bilateral trade elasticities this paper estimates income and price elasticities for bilateral world trade in addition to testing the properties of the error terms the dynamic specification and the assumption of parameter constancy the analysis presents the first application of the bank spectrum estimator to bilateral trade flows for all countries the paper finds that bilateral trade elasticities exhibit enough of a dispersion to suggest that the direction of trade is sensitive to changes in income and prices using the bilateral elasticities as raw data the analysis obtains the associated multilateral estimates and finds that they are both consistent with the literature and suitable to addressing questions involving multilateral trade but the evidence also reveals that sole reliance on multilateral elasticities conceals valuable information for both policy applications and empirical analyses of international trade copyright 1990 by mit press

the root cause of economic growth under capitalism drawing on historical and other empirical evidence this paper provides a causal explanation of a central question why sustained per capita growth occurs in capitalist economies i e in what way capitalism differs from the market that gives it this property it describes an endogenous economic logic that is based on the institutional characteristics of capitalist firms in the non financial sector especially the flexibility of the inputs that they can call upon and of the size of the market that they can supply this perspective naturally generates a realistic theoretical account not only of the source of economic growth but also of the evolution of market structure the forces that produce divergence in for example profit rates a starting point for explaining price setting and a language for describing firms economic power it draws on previous traditions especially those based on the works of marx and schumpeter but differs from them in important respects copyright the author 2011 published by oxford university press on behalf of the cambridge political economy society all rights reserved oxford university press

wealth and inequality over eight centuries of british capitalism abstract this paper constructs annual data for the wealth income ratio w y for the uk over the period 1210 2013 it is found that the w y ratio has fluctuated at one two century frequencies about a constant level of approximately 500 over the past eight centuries furthermore a u shaped w y path is identified over the past two centuries and it is argued that the descending part of the u shape is driven by the transition from pre industrial modes of production to industrialization and that the post 1980 upturn in the w y ratio represents the transition from the industrial to the post industrialization era

adjustment costs and pricing to market theory and evidence abstract this paper develops an adjustment cost model of pricing to market the model consists of a monopolist who supplies an identical nondurable good to two foreign markets it is shown that the degree of pricing to market increases with the relative importance of the transitory component in exchange rates customs data from 1978 through 1987 on u s and canadian imports of seven german commodities are used to estimate the model s parameters and test its over identifying restrictions

rational expectations equilibria of economies with local interactions abstract we consider general economies in which rational agents interact locally the local aspect of the interactions is designed to represent in a simple abstract way social interactions that is socioeconomic environments in which markets do not mediate all of agents choices which might be in part determined for instance by family peer group or ethnic group effects we study static as well as dynamic infinite horizon economies we allow for economies with incomplete information and we consider jointly global and local interactions to integrate e g global externalities and markets with peer and group effects we provide conditions under which such economies have rational expectations equilibria we illustrate the effects of local interactions when agents are rational by studying in detail the equilibrium properties of a simple economy with quadratic preferences which captures in turn local preferences for conformity habit persistence and preferences for status or adherence to aggregate norms of behavior

a microeconomic mechanism for economic growth this paper constructs a dynamic general equilibrium model in which economic growth is explained by the evolution of the division of labor the relationships among the accumulation of human capital the evolution of the division of labor endogenous comparative advantage trade dependence the market structure and economic growth are investigated

patents r d subsidies and endogenous market structure in a schumpeterian economy this study explores the different implications of patent breadth and r d subsidies on economic growth and endogenous market structure in a schumpeterian growth model we find that when the number of firms is fixed in the short run patent breadth and r d subsidies serve to increase economic growth as in previous studies however when market structure adjusts endogenously in the long run r d subsidies increase economic growth but decrease the number of firms whereas patent breadth expands the number of firms but reduces economic growth therefore in accordance with empirical evidence r d subsidy is perhaps a more suitable policy instrument than patent breadth for the purpose of stimulating long run economic growth

robust endogenous growth abstract this paper studies a generalization of the schumpeterian models with endogenous market structure that allows the overall production structure to be more than linear in the growth driving factor and yet generates endogenous growth defined as steady state constant exponential growth of income per capita this version of modern growth theory therefore is robust in the sense that its key result obtains for a thick set of parameter values instead of as often claimed for a set of measure zero the paper moreover pays close attention to transitional dynamics showing not only the existence but also the global stability of the endogenous growth steady state

intertemporal substitution in import demand abstract this paper investigates the role of intertemporal substitution in us import demand using a model of import consumption based on the permanent income hypothesis estimation of the model yields an intertemporal elasticity for consumer imports which is close to 0 8 an estimate which may include importers purchase and inventory responses to the real interest rate the implied relative price elasticity of import consumption is also estimated to be close to one these results indicate that consumption imports may respond to changes in their intertemporal price as well as changes in their price relative to that of domestic substitutes

population technology and growth from malthusian stagnation to the demographic transition and beyond this paper develops a unied growth model that captures the historical evolution of population technology and output it encompasses theendogenous transitionbetween three regimes that have characterized economic development the economy evolves from amalthusianregime wheretechnologicalprogressis slow andpopulationgrowthprevents anysustainedriseinincomepercapita intoapost malthusianregime wheretechnological progress rises and population growth absorbs only part of output growth ultimately a demographic transition reverses the positive relationship between income and population growth andtheeconomyentersamoderngrowthregimewithreducedpopulationgrowth

does africa grow differently abstract this paper extends the analysis of african economic growth in two directions first by challenging the assumption that growth effects of particular explanatory variables are the same in africa as elsewhere and second by measuring indirect contributions to growth of initial conditions as they influence explanatory variables in a basic growth regression robust regression analysis shows that for africa being closed to trade is more costly to growth natural resource abundance is more detrimental to institutional development and several factors that reduce population growth and enhance institutional quality outside africa fail to show such beneficial effects within africa

technological progress mobility and economic growth this paper analyzes the relationship between technological progress wage inequality intergenerational earnings mobility and economic growth in periods of major technological inventions a decline in the relative importance of initial conditions raises inequality enhances mobility and generates a larger concentration of high ability individuals in technologically advanced sectors stimulating future technological progress and growth however once technologies become more accessible mobility is diminished and inequality decreases but becomes more persistent the reduction in the concentration of ability in technologically advanced sectors diminishes the likelihood of technological breakthroughs and slows future growth user friendliness therefore becomes unfriendly to future economic growth copyright 1997 by american economic association

inequality and growth why differential fertility matters we argue that inequality and growth are linked through differential fertility and the accumulation of human capital we build an overlapping generations model in which dynasties differ in their initial endowment with human capital growth the income distribution and fertility are endogenous due to a quantiy quality tradeoff families with less human capital decide to have more children and invest less in education when initial inequality is high large fertility differentials lower the growth rate of average human capital since poor families who invest little in education make up a large fraction of the population in the next generation a calibrated model shows that this fertility differential effect is quantitatively important we also provide empirical evidence to confirm the links between inequality differential fertility and growth suggested by the model

import demand in heterogeneous panel data with cross sectional dependence we investigate the long run income and price elasticity of import demand functions with a heterogeneous unbalanced panel of 34 countries over the period 1985 q1 2018 q3 to estimate world elasticit

communication and coordination in social networks i model people in a coordination game who use a communication network to tell each other their willingness to participate the minimal sufficient networks for coordination can be interpreted as placing people into a hierarchy of social roles or stages initial adopters then followers and so on down to late adopters a communication network helps coordination in exactly two ways by informing each stage about earlier stages and by creating common knowledge within each stage we then consider two examples first we show that low dimensional networks can be better for coordination even though they have far fewer links than high dimensional networks second we show that wide dispersion of insurgents people predisposed toward participation can be good for coordination but too much dispersion can be bad although collective action depends on both social structure and individual incentives these integral aspects have been formalized separately in the fields of social network theory and game theory by considering them together this paper engages the classic question of which structures are conducive to coordination and shows that structure and strategy are related in a mutually interesting way here we consider a coordination game in which each person wants to participate only if others participate social structure is thought of as a communication network by which people tell each other their willingness to participate each person knows whether her neighbours in the network are willing but does not know about anyone else our model is thus a game of incomplete information in which each person given his local knowledge decides whether to participate the main result is a characterization of the minimal sufficient networks for coordination in terms of a hierarchy of social roles or stages initial adopters then followers and so on down to late adopters for example a communication network helps coordination in exactly two ways by informing each stage about earlier stages and by creating common knowledge within each stage we also consider two simple examples first we show that low dimension or strong link networks can be better for coordination even though they have far fewer links than high dimension or weak link networks second we show that wide dispersion of insurgents people predisposed toward participation can be good for coordination but too much dispersion can be bad this paper is built on the assumption that the most basic and common mechanism for coordination is the i ll go if you go mechanism individuals first communicate with each other about their preferences and then each individual chooses whether to participate or not hence a person s participation depends on what he knows about his neighbours it does not depend solely on their participation itself either through learning adaptation or social influence the physical analogies of contagion or diffusion are not

taste heterogeneity and the scale of production fragmentation unification and segmentation abstract we propose a simple framework within which taste heterogeneity is a determinant of the scale of production we show i when taste heterogeneity is small every firm chooses a mass production technology ii when taste heterogeneity is large every firm chooses a small scale production technology and iii when the degree of taste heterogeneity is intermediate these symmetric equilibria cease to exist and both technologies coexist in equilibrium we then extend the basic framework to a geographic framework and obtain a historical evolution of marketing that is characterized by three phases a geographically fragmented market with small scale production a geographically unified market with mass production and a geographically unified but characteristically segmented market

vintage human capital demographic trends and endogenous growth we study how economic growth is affected by demographics in an overlapping generations model with a realistic survival law individuals optimally chose the dates at which they leave school to enter the labor market and at which they retire endogenous growth arises thanks to the accumulation of generation specific human capital favorable shifts in the survival probabilities always induce longer schooling and later retirement but have an ambiguous effect on growth the relationship between the growth of population and per capita growth is hump shaped increases in longevity can be responsible for a switch from a no growth regime to a sustained growth regime and for a positive relationship between fertility and growth to vanish

distributed lags and intermediate good imports abstract in this paper we draw upon some recent developments in the theory of dynamic economics and econometrics to characterize the time series behavior of intermediate good imports it is shown that adjustment costs delivery lags and inventory holding costs considerations lead to distributed lag import demand functions that are not subject to the nerlove 1972 and lucas 1976 critiques of ad hoc and fixed distributed lag modelling

income distribution and the process of development abstract this paper examines the evolution of the role of income distribution in the process of development it presents a unified model that encompasses the transition between distinct regimes that have characterized the relationship between income inequality and the process of development this unified modeling provides an intertemporal reconciliation for conflicting viewpoints about the effect of inequality on economic growth the classical approach which argues that inequality stimulates capital accumulation and economic growth and the modern approach which suggests in contrast that for sufficiently wealthy economies equality stimulates investment in human capital and economic growth

a performance assessment of the angolan soccer league abstractthis article analyses the technical efficiency of the angolan soccer league from 2008 to 2014 using a translog distance stochastic frontier model the greene stochastic frontier model presented in 2005 and kumbhakar stochastic frontier model presented in 1990 are adopted and the covariates used include luanda location funding by the oil company sonangol club supported by rich fans and club relegated during the period policy implications are then derived

social classes demographic transition and economic growth abstract this paper analyzes the role of the demographic transition in the emergence of sustained economic growth and shows that these two processes are related unlike previous contributions which have focused on the importance of human capital this paper suggests that capital accumulation and the existence of different social classes may provide an alternative explanation for the observed pattern of output fertility rates and wages during the 19th century the framework presented shows that during the first phase of industrialization a decline in capital labor ratio reduces the wage rate and increases the dependency of the family unit on child labor increasing fertility rates however in later phases the increase in the capital labor ratio due to the saving of the business elite reduces the necessity of child labor bringing about the demographic transition