a dynamic theory of collective goods programs a collective goods program such as an entitlement program distributes benefits and costs according to constituents characteristics this paper presents a dynamic theory of the legislative choice of collective goods programs based on a sequential model of proposal making and voting in a majority rule legislature where the status quo in a session is given by the program last enacted a stationary markov perfect equilibrium is characterized for a unidimensional collective goods program and yields a generalized median voter theorem comparative statics on preferences and legislative procedures and a characterization of the dynamics of such programs equilibrium programs can expand or contract over time but they ultimately converge to the median on the path to that point legislators may act strategically to address the durability problem that a future legislature can undo the actions of the present legislature by strategically positioning the status quo to limit the changes that future legislatures can make

an evaluation of the forecasts of the federal reserve a pooled approach the federal reserve greenbook forecasts of real gdp inflation and unemployment are analysed for the period 1974 to 1997 we consider whether these forecasts exhibit systematic bias and whether efficient use is made of information that is whether revisions to these forecasts over time are predictable rather than analyse the forecasts separately for each horizon of interest we discuss and implement methods that pool information over horizons we conclude that there is evidence of systematic bias and of forecast smoothing of the inflation forecasts

conceptualising energy use and energy poverty using a capabilities framework in this article we conceptualise energy use from a capabilities perspective informed by the work of amartya sen martha nussbaum and others following them building on this we suggest a corresponding definition of energy poverty as understood in the capabilities space we argue that such an understanding provides a theoretically coherent means of comprehending the relationship between energy and wellbeing and thus conceptualising energy deprivation that makes sense across settings including both the global north and south a coherence which has previously been lacking at the same time it has the flexibility to be deployed in a way that is sensitive to local contexts understanding energy use in the capabilities space also provides a means for identifying multiple sites of intervention including some areas that are currently largely overlooked we argue that this is advantageous for attempts to address energy poverty in the context of climate change and imperatives for the containment of aggregate energy consumption

regulatory fog the role of information in regulatory persistence abstract regulation is very persistent even when inefficient we propose an explanation for regulatory persistence based on regulatory fog the phenomenon by which regulation obscures information regarding the value of counterfactual policies we construct a dynamic model of regulation in which the underlying need for regulation varies stochastically and regulation undermines the social planner s ability to observe the state of the world compared to a full information benchmark regulation is highly persistent often lasting indefinitely regulatory fog is robust to a broad range of partially informative policies and can be quite detrimental to social welfare regulatory experiments modeled as costly and imperfect signals of the underlying state do not eliminate the effects of regulatory fog we characterize their effects and provide a framework for choosing amongst a set of potential regulatory experiments

trapped in the heat a post communist type of fuel poverty abstract fuel poverty is a still insufficiently researched social and energy challenge with significant climate change implications based on evidence from hungarian panel apartment blocks connected to district heating this paper introduces a new variant of fuel poverty that may not be properly captured by existing fuel poverty indicators this newly defined variant can be largely attributed to post communist legacies though it might also exist in other contexts and assumes that consumers living in poor efficiency district heated buildings are trapped in dwellings with adequate indoor temperatures but disproportionately high heating costs because a changing supplier or fuel is difficult because of the existing technical and institutional constraints and b they do not realistically have the option to reduce individually their heating costs through individual efficiency improvements this situation often translates into payment arrears indebtedness risk of disconnection or reduced consumption of other basic goods and services state supported policy responses to date have favoured symptomatic solutions direct consumer support combined with superficial retrofits though it is argued that only state of the art retrofits such as the passive house based solanova pilot project in dunaujvaros can fully eradicate fuel poverty in this consumer group

does energy poverty really exist in china from the perspective of residential electricity consumption abstract china is undergoing a market oriented reform in energy and the residential sector will be involved in the near future the analysis of energy poverty is crucial in breaking the illusion of the dilemma between enhancing energy efficiency and controlling poverty based on chinese residential energy consumption survey we firstly estimated the energy poverty in china by the 10 indicator and lihc indicators and then proposed a minimum end use method to classify the energy poor households into lifeline and consumption energy poverty results show that energy poverty exists in china at the proportion of 18 9 and 46 of the energy poor houses are in short of modern energy consumption and are sensitive to tariffs with a level of electricity consumption lower than the basic demand the energy poverty rate is highest in central china while the lifeline energy poor are relatively concentrated in the western region in terms of public policy we suggest focusing on heterogeneity by considering different groups of households when implementing energy efficiency measures and targeting more on the consumption energy poor in poverty alleviation we also suggest paying particular attention to targeting households with low income by supporting practices such as coupons for energy consumption and appliance purchasing

federal reserve information during the great moderation using data from the period 1970 1991 romer and romer 2000 showed that that federal reserve forecasts of inflation and output were superior to those provided by commercial forecasters in this paper we show that this superior forecasting performance deteriorated after 1991 over the decade 1992 2001 the superior forecast accuracy of the fed held only over a very short time horizon and was limited to its forecasts of inflation in addition the performance of both the fed and the commercial forecasters in predicting inflation and output relative to that of naive benchmark models dropped remarkably during this period jel e58 e31

price dispersion and incomplete learning in the long run abstract in each period a seller chooses a price and the customer for that period buys either one unit or nothing the relationship between price and purchase probability is one of two linear functions it is shown that the seller behaving optimally does not necessarily learn which function is the actual relationship since there can be a positive probability of sequences of prices converging to the price at which the two functions give the same purchase probability

learning public good provision and the information trap abstract we consider an economy with uncertainty about the true production function for a public good by using bayes rule the economy can learn from experience we show that it may learn the truth but that it may also converge to an inefficient policy where no further inference is possible so that the economy is stuck in an information trap we also show that our results are robust with respect to small experimentation

uninformed votes information effects in presidential elections theory recent scholarship has emphasized the potential importance of cues information shortcuts and statistical aggregation processes in allowing relatively uninformed citizens to act individually or collectively as if they were fully informed hypotheses uninformed voters successfully use cues and information shortcuts to behave as if they were fully informed failing that individual deviations from fully informed voting cancel out in a mass electorate producing the same aggregate election outcome as if voters were fully informed methods hypothetical fully informed vote choices are imputed to individual voters using the observed relationship between political information and vote choices for voters with similar social and demographic characteristics estimated by probit analysis of data from national election study surveys conducted after the six most recent united states presidential elections results both hypotheses are clearly disconfirmed at the individual level the average deviation of actual vote probabilities from hypothetical fully informed vote probabilities was about ten percentage points in the electorate as a whole these deviations were significantly diluted by aggregation but by no means eliminated incumbent presidents did almost five percentage points better and democratic candidates did almost two percentage points better than they would have if voters had in fact been fully informed

assessing the determinants and drivers of multidimensional energy poverty in ghana abstract improving household access and use of clean energy has been central to global development efforts in recent years the negative effects of energy poverty on health climate livelihoods and economy has led to increased investments towards achieving universal access to clean energy however significant deprivations in clean energy remains especially in developing countries energy poverty may involve simultaneous deprivations on availability and affordability of clean energy using repeated cross sectional data this paper assesses the extent and determinants of multidimensional energy poverty in ghana between 2008 and 2014 the paper finds that though the level of multidimensional energy poverty reduced in ghana between 2008 and 2014 the incidence and intensity of multidimensional energy poverty remains high further we find substantial subgroup differences in multidimensional energy poverty the results reveal significant relationships between household characteristics and the multidimensional energy poverty status of households the reductions in multidimensional energy poverty were driven by the coefficient effects attributable to structural and policy changes over the period to facilitate universal access to clean energy and reduce the degree of multidimensional energy poverty there is the need to intensify the lpg promotion campaign and adopt strategies that target left behind and underserved groups

in pursuit of energy justice abstract energy justice provides a framework to perceive disparities in our energy system the foundation of energy justice draws heavily from the environmental justice movement grounded in larger issues of representation economic relations between the state firms and social groups this article draws from the environmental justice movement to explore concepts of universal and particular justice universal energy justice holds to values stemming from judicial and philosophical groundings based in procedural distributional and cosmopolitan justice issues particular energy justice relies on recognition justice of cultural and environmental factors influencing choices around energy technologies and policy preferences for the distribution of energy services empirically this article examines tensions within the energy system in the european union it does this in two areas first by examining how universal energy justice is spread through national regulatory authorities nras dealing with energy second particular energy justice is exemplified by a political solution to energy poverty in bulgaria rather than a regulatory response this contrasts with a western european approach the aim of the article is to show the pursuit of energy justice attempts to resolve tensions between groups and differing politics to both access and provide energy services

bias in federal reserve inflation forecasts is the federal reserve irrational or just cautious abstract inflation forecasts of the federal reserve seem to have systematically under predicted inflation from the fourth quarter of 1968 until volcker s appointment as chairman and to systematically over predict it afterwards until the second quarter of 1998 furthermore under quadratic loss commercial forecasts seem to have information not contained in those forecasts to investigate the cause of this apparent irrationality this paper recovers the loss function implied by federal reserve s inflation forecasts the results suggest that the cost of having inflation above an implicit time varying target was larger than the cost of having inflation below it for the period since volcker and that the opposite was true for the pre volcker era once these asymmetries are taken into account the federal reserve s inflation forecasts are found to be rational

majority voting with single crossing preferences we clarify and extend a number of sufficient conditions for the existence of a majority voting equilibrium on one dimensional choice domains these conditions variously stated in the previous literature all impose order restrictions on voter preferences for instance monotone marginal rates of substitution which we show to imply or be equivalent to a general ordinal version of the single crossing condition this simple property is economically intuitive and easily checked in applications this ease of application is demonstrated through an examination of voting models of redistributive income taxation and trade union bargaining behaviour

forecast comparisons in unstable environments we propose new methods for comparing the out of sample forecasting performance of two competing models in the presence of possible instabilities the main idea is to develop a measure of the relative local forecasting performance for the two models and to investigate its stability over time by means of statistical tests we propose two tests the fluctuation test and the one time reversal test that analyze the evolution of the models relative performance over historical samples in contrast to previous approaches to forecast comparison which are based on measures of global performance we focus on the entire time path of the models relative performance which may contain useful information that is lost when looking for the model that forecasts best on average we apply our tests to the analysis of the time variation in the out of sample forecasting performance of monetary models of exchange rate determination relative to the random walk copyright 2010 john wiley sons ltd

has the economy become more predictable changes in greenbook forecast accuracy several researchers have recently documented large reductions in economic volatility but a more important question may be whether the economy has become more predictable using forecasts from the federal reserve greenbooks i find that inflation and output have become more predictable though the results for output are somewhat mixed the reductions in unpredictability if any are significantly smaller than reductions in volatility associated with this the predictable component of fluctuations in output and inflation has virtually disappeared

forecast rationality tests in the presence of instabilities with applications to federal reserve and survey forecasts summary this paper proposes a framework to implement regression based tests of predictive ability in unstable environments including in particular forecast unbiasedness and efficiency tests commonly referred to as tests of forecast rationality our framework is general it can be applied to model based forecasts obtained either with recursive or rolling window estimation schemes as well as to forecasts that are model free the proposed tests provide more evidence against forecast rationality than previously found in the federal reserve s greenbook forecasts as well as survey based private forecasts it confirms however that the federal reserve has additional information about current and future states of the economy relative to market participants copyright 2015 john wiley sons ltd

quantifying the severity of fuel poverty its relationship with poor housing and reasons for non investment in energy saving measures in ireland fuel poverty has generally been calculated by quantifying the number of households spending in excess of 10 of income on home heating this definition has a number of significant practical and scientific limitations this paper employs self reported data to calculate the severity of fuel poverty in ireland to identify chronic fuel poor households from occasional sufferers it also assesses domestic energy efficiency levels ireland is a useful case study as it demonstrates the highest variations in seasonal mortality and morbidity in northern europe both of which are associated with fuel poverty ireland is also experiencing extreme difficulties meeting its environmental emissions targets in light of recent spectacular economic growth reducing fuel poverty would lower energy related emissions assisting policy makers achieve these challenging targets furthermore little empirical research has been undertaken on fuel poverty in ireland this paper identifies key social groups at risk by conducting detailed socio economic and socio demographic analyses the relationship between fuel poverty and adverse housing conditions damp condensation is also examined moreover the reasons behind householders not investing in energy saving measures are reported the results show that ireland suffers from similar levels of fuel poverty as the uk with low income households suffering the greatest the key policy implications are outlined

social mobility and redistributive politics just like economists voters have conflicting views about redistributive taxation because they estimate its incentive costs differently we model rational agents as trying to learn from their dynastic income mobility experience the relative importance of effort and predetermined factors in the generation of income inequality and therefore the magnitude of these incentive costs in the long run left wing dynasties believing less in individual effort and voting for more redistribution coexist with right wing dynasties this allows us to explain why individual mobility experience and not only current income matters for political attiitudes and how persistent differences in perceptions about social mobility can generate persistent differences in redistribution across countries

is there a consensus among economists in the 1990 s in a 1976 survey kearl et al 1979 hereafter the 1976 survey concluded that the then widespread perception that there was little agreement among professional economists on matters of theory or policy was simply wrong however the most casual empiricism namely the continuing popularity of jokes about disagreements among economists suggests the perception of noneconomists has not changed much since the 1970 s what is the present state of consensus among economists this question is of interest because more than a decade has elapsed since the 1976 survey and during this time many issues confronting economists and the composition of the profession have changed 1 benjamin m friedman and lawrence h summers 1991 p ix for example have asserted that economic thinking in many subfields of the discipline now differs markedly from what it was in 1970 consensus among european economists has been examined by bruno s frey et al 1984 martin ricketts and edward shoesmith 1990 1992 focus exclusively on british economic opinion this paper provides the first general analysis of opinions of u s economists in more than a decade i the survey and questionnaire

monetary policy rules based on real time data this paper examines the magnitude of informational problems associated with the implementation and interpretation of simple monetary policy rules using taylor s rule as an example i demonstrate that real time policy recommendations differ considerably from those obtained with ex post revised data further estimated policy reaction functions based on ex post revised data provide misleading descriptions of historical policy and obscure the behavior suggested by information available to the federal reserve in real time these results indicate that reliance on the information actually available to policy makers in real time is essential for the analysis of monetary policy rules

voting under ignorance of job skills of unemployed the overtaxation bias abstract usual models on voting over basic income flat tax schedules rest on the assumption that voters know the whole distribution of skills even if at equilibrium some individuals do not work if individuals productivity remains unknown until they work it may be more convincing to assume that voters have only beliefs about the distribution of skills and that a learning process takes place in this paper at each period individuals vote according to their beliefs which are updated when getting new information from the job market the voting process converges towards some steady state equilibrium that depends on both the true distribution of skills and the initial beliefs the equilibrium tax rate is higher than or equal to the tax rate achieved in the perfect information framework an illustration is provided on french data if voters are over pessimistic as to the potential productivity of unemployed people majority voting may lock the economy in an informational trap with a high tax rate and a high level of inactivity

quantifying the prevalence of fuel poverty across the european union abstract the literature and policy base for fuel poverty in the uk and ireland is well established and there is a growing body of single country studies beyond these two eu member states for example brunner et al 2012 dubois 2012 robine et al 2008 however on a european level the last analysis of fuel poverty was conducted in 2004 prior to the enlargement of the eu using survey data this paper presents an updated overview of the prevalence of european fuel poverty in the context of the accession of numerous former social states and rising fuel prices analysis reveals the phenomenon of fuel poverty is occurring across the eu with particularly high levels of fuel poverty found in eastern and southern european states it is argued that there are both eu and national policy frameworks in place that address climate change and these could be used as a starting point for countries to address fuel poverty through improved domestic energy efficiency measures this paper reflects research undertaken in 2011 supported by eaga charitable trust within the umbrella of work examining issues of poverty and social exclusion across the eu which has enabled access to the eu silc dataset

federal reserve information and the behavior of interest rates this paper tests for the existence of asymmetric information between the federal reserve and the public by examining federal reserve and commercial inflation forecasts it demonstrates that the federal reserve has considerable information about inflation beyond what is known to commercial forecasters it also shows that monetary policy actions provide signals of the federal reserve s information and that commercial forecasters modify their forecasts in response to those signals these findings may explain why long term interest rates typically rise in response to shifts to tighter monetary policy jel e52 e43 d82 asymmetric information between the federal reserve and the public is a phenomenon that is often posited but rarely tested numerous models of central bank behavior for example show that the existence of asymmetric information has important implications for the effectiveness of policy and the consequences of dynamic inconsistency yet there

on the power of indicators how the choice of fuel poverty indicator affects the identification of the target population in light of the creation of the eu energy poverty observatory epov in january 2018 and the increase in debates on how fuel poverty is measured we propose a critical analysis of fuel poverty indi

assessing the extent and intensity of energy poverty using multidimensional energy poverty index empirical evidence from households in india abstract in this paper we have made a comprehensive assessment of the extent and various socio economic implications of energy poverty in india amartya sens s capability approach to development underpins the analysis of household level data taken from the india human development survey ii ihds ii 2011 12 using the multidimensional energy poverty index mepi the overall results show that energy poverty is widespread in india and the existence of energy poverty also coincides with the other forms of deprivations such as income poverty and social backwardness for example dalits lower caste and adivasis tribal are found to be extremely energy poor compared to the other social groups in india the results also reveal that it is the responsibility of women to manage the domestic chores such as collection of firewood and making of dung cake in traditional indian households inefficient use of such biomass fuels is found to cause health hazards

rational debate and one dimensional conflict this paper studies repeated communication regarding a multidimensional collective decision in a large population when preferences coincide but beliefs about the consequences of the various decisions diverge it is shown under some specific assumptions that public communication causes the disagreement between beliefs either to vanish or to become one dimensional at the limit multidimensional disagreement indeed allows for many directions of communication including some that are orthogonal to the conflict along which agents can communicate credibly the possible convergence toward a one dimensional conflict where no further communication takes place may be related to the empirically observed geometry ofthe political conflict in many countries

ethnic diversity energy poverty and the mediating role of trust evidence from household panel data for australia abstract energy poverty is now a major concern on the public policy agenda in many countries however evidence on the determinants of energy poverty is relatively scant our study contributes to the debate on the determinants of energy poverty by being the first to examine the impact of ethnic diversity on household energy poverty using 12 waves of longitudinal data from the household income and labour dynamics in australia hilda survey we find that in australia ethnic diversity is positively associated with energy poverty our preferred instrumented estimates suggest that a standard deviation increase in ethnic diversity is associated with a 0 103 0 422 standard deviation increase in energy poverty depending on how energy poverty is measured this finding is generally robust to alternative ways of measuring ethnic diversity and energy poverty we identify trust as an important channel through which ethnic diversity operates and point to the need for policies that engender social capital in multicultural societies as a means to harness the benefits of diversity

from targeting to implementation the role of identification of fuel poor households this paper proposes to evaluate the efficiency of fuel poverty policies by looking at them as a three step process these steps are policy targeting identification of households and implementation of measures each of these steps are costly and can face feasibility problems this is particularly true in the case of fuel poverty policies because of the multidimensional aspect of fuel poverty therefore public policies in that field are necessarily imperfect and this should be taken into account in the analysis of policies this three step framework is applied to the french fuel poverty policy which has been developed in 2010 as its practical modalities of implementation are still under discussion we mainly discuss the choices made in terms of targeting and highlight the role of identification of fuel poor households as a key factor for the success of that policy the general idea behind this discussion is that the efficiency of such policies has to be viewed in a comprehensive way which includes the three policy steps

economists views about parameters values and policies survey results in labor and public economics specialists in labor economics and public economics at 40 leading research universities provided opinions of policy proposals quantitative best estimates and 95 percent confidence intervals for economic parameters and answers to values questions regarding income redistribution efficiency versus equity and individual versus social responsibility their positions on policy are more closely related to their values than to their estimates of relevant economic parameters average best estimates of the economic parameters agree well with the relevant literature but individual best estimates are usually widely dispersed the individual 95 percent confidence intervals are much narrower than the substantial cross respondent variation in estimates would warrant

energy justice at the end of the wire enacting community energy and equity in wales energy justice has emerged as a useful lens for understanding and guiding energy decision making however whilst calls for greater energy justice have grown fleeting attention has been paid to the role and agency of the very people at the heart of this agenda clearly given the increasing prevalence of local energy initiatives such projects warrant more sustained focus both to explore how energy justice is constructed between settings and to prompt greater consideration of its associated outcomes this paper seeks to address this gap by using energy justice to assess local ownership of small scale energy generation through a study of the community energy sector in wales in so doing it aids greater understanding of the energy equity dimension understood in terms of accessibility and affordability of the energy trilemma from a conceptual standpoint the research examines how energy justice is negotiated and contested at community scale through a focus on issues of distributive and procedural justice from a policy standpoint the research shows that community energy is often involved in a wide range of local objectives and directs attention to how best to support such initiatives to further stimulate local action and deliver more widespread equity gains

why did the west extend the franchise democracy inequality and growth in historical perspective during the nineteenth century most western societies extended voting rights a decision that led to unprecedented redistributive programs we argue that these political reforms can be viewed as strategic decisions by the political elite to prevent widespread social unrest and revolution political transition rather than redistribution under existing political institutions occurs because current transfers do not ensure future transfers while the extension of the franchise changes future political equilibria and acts as a commitment to redistribution our theory also offers a novel explanation for the kuznets curve in many western economies during this period with the fall in inequality following redistribution due to democratization i introduction the nineteenth century was a period of fundamental political reform and unprecedented changes in taxation and redistribution britain for example was transformed from an oligarchy run by an elite to a democracy the franchise was extended in 1832 and then again in 1867 and 1884 transferring voting rights to portions of the society with no previous political representation the decades after the political reforms witnessed radical social reforms increased taxation and the extension of education to the masses moreover as noted by kuznets inequality which was previously increasing started to decline during this period the gini coefficient for income inequality in england and wales had risen from 0 400 in 1823 to 0 627 in 1871 but fell to 0 443 in 1901 two key factors in the reduction in inequality were the increase in the proportion of skilled workers williamson 1985 and the redistribution of income toward the poorer segments of the society for example taxes rose from 8 12 percent of national product in 1867 to 18 8 percent by 1927 and the progressivity of the tax system increased substantially see lindert 1989

the policy implications of energy poverty indicators abstract the methodologies and indicators that have been proposed in the literature to measure energy poverty are quite diverse some are subjective approaches based on personal or third parties perceptions of affordable warmth at home whereas others calculate objective indicators although these different proposals have already been theoretically compared an empirical comparative analysis that measures in a real case study the practical impact of the theoretical limitations detected for the different indicators was still pending the goal of this paper is thus to contribute to this debate by comparing critically the different approaches used to measure energy poverty in a real case spain in 2015 and to propose a new methodology that might be able to overcome some of the major problems that affect current methods

a comparison of forecast performance between federal reserve staff forecasts simple reduced form models and a dsge model this paper considers the forecast performance of the federal reserve staff five atheoretical reduced form models and an estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium dsge model focusing on the late 1990s through 2001 our analysis finds that the dsge model and atheoretical models forecast real gdp growth better than the federal reserve staff during this period by an economically significant margin we find smaller differences across each method in the quality of inflation forecasts over this period these results provide some support to the notion that richly specified dsge models such the one used in this paper belong in the forecasting toolbox of a central bank rochelle m edge rochelle m edge frb gov michael t kiley michael t kiley frb gov and jeanphilippe laforte jean philippe laforte frb gov are affiliated with the macroeconomic and quantitative studies section at the board of governors of the federal reserve system this paper represents ongoing work in the section on developing dge models that can be useful for policy analysis nevertheless any views expressed in this paper remain solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the board of governors of the federal reserve system or it staff all errors are our own

different approaches for dealing with social security he u s social security system is a government pension program financed by worker payroll taxes as workers pay in their payroll taxes they accumulate credits toward benefits in the language of pensions this is a defined benefit plan at any point in time one can project tax inflows and benefit outflows based on various economic and demographic assumptions and determine the long run actuarial soundness of the system or to put it another way determine whether the present set of tax and benefit schedules will be consistent in the long term every year such forecasts are made by the social security and medicare trustees now three cabinet officers the commissioner of social security and two outside members social security and medicare boards of trustees 1995 every four years a quadrennial advisory council is appointed to review these forecasts and to comment on relevant policy issues in the past many of these councils have had important impacts on social security policy for example the 1983 greenspan commission proposed a number of measures that saved the system from imminent financial difficulty and the 1975 council recommended changing procedures that had until then led to overindexation of social security for inflation another advisory council was formed in 1994 and i was asked to chair it it also included three members from business three from unions and six others from the private pension industry the self employment sector and independent

fuel poverty potential risk index in the context of climate change in chile abstract public housing policies face a challenge in order to meet not only the right to housing but also an affordable and comfortable use for them in this context most of the studies related to fuel poverty are based on a diagnosis of existing conditions but there is a lack of information focusing on how to predict the risk of fuel poverty in future dwellings considering a context of climate change this research develops an index to assist policymakers in the decision making process during the early stages of social housing allocation the analysis is based on the applicability of adaptive comfort the influence of climate change the urban context and the building features energy use patterns and the ability to pay utility bills have been also considered for social housing in the central south of chile after that several future scenarios are discussed considering the probable income and energy inflation rates the potential risk variables that influence the early stages of design are also discussed the results reveal that the fuel poverty potential risk index is an effective tool to select appropriate housing for the most disadvantaged and vulnerable segments of society considering the future climate income and energy price trends

experiencing fuel poverty coping strategies of low income households in vienna austria abstract until the present day research on fuel poverty focussing on the point of view of those concerned is few and far between the present paper aims at filling this gap analysing experiences with and behavioural responses to fuel poverty it examines the day to day energy situation of households which are poor at risk of poverty and or suffering from fuel poverty in a case study conducted in the austrian capital vienna qualitative interviews provide the data for investigating the relevant factors in causing fuel poverty among those bad housing conditions outdated appliances financial problems and provide a basis for discussion about the respective behavioural strategies of the people concerned the results show that the ways of handling this problematic situation vary greatly and that people follow different strategies when it comes to inventing solutions for coping with the restrictions and finding ways of satisfying at least a part of their basic energy needs nonetheless it also clearly surfaces that the scope of action is limited in many cases which in turn only supports the claim that changes in the overall conditions are essential

fuel poverty as injustice integrating distribution recognition and procedure in the struggle for affordable warmth bringing attention to fuel poverty as a distinct manifestation of social inequality has asserted the place of affordable warmth in the profile of contemporary rights and entitlements as such fuel poverty can be understood as an expression of injustice involving the compromised ability to access energy services and thereby to secure a healthful living environment in this paper we consider how fuel poverty may be aligned to various alternative concepts of social and environmental justice whilst recognising that fuel poverty is fundamentally a complex problem of distributive injustice we argue that other understandings of injustice are also implicated and play important roles in producing and sustaining inequalities in access to affordable warmth addressing fuel poverty has to involve seeking justice in terms of the cultural and political recognition of vulnerable and marginalised social groups and pursuing procedural justice through opening up involvement and influence in decision making processes we make this argument both in theoretical terms and through considering the experience of fuel poverty advocacy and policy development in the uk opportunities for future action may be illuminated through such interconnected justice framings as wider awareness of energy climate and poverty issues emerge

meta analysis of empirical evidence on energy poverty the case of developing economies abstract energy poverty has evolved as an important issue of research from academic and policy perspectives during the last two decades the energy poverty estimates exhibit widespread variations across regions methodologies and datasets making the task of energy and development policies challenging the variations in energy poverty estimates necessitate a systematic and rigorous analysis of these empirical studies to obtain a true measure of energy poverty the present study conducts a meta analysis of 30 studies and 103 estimates of energy poverty on average 71 1 percent of the population in the overall sample studies has been identified as energy poor high i square statistic values suggest heterogeneity bias in the sample studies therefore analysis at the subgroup level has been conducted meta regression analysis of overall sample and subgroups has identified type of methodology citations impact factor of the journal regional dummies average key crude oil price and gross domestic product as significant factors that explain heterogeneity in the energy poverty effect sizes we recommend inclusion of local and regional factors in assessment of energy poverty for developing a uniform methodology to assess energy poverty across developing economies

measuring the accuracy of federal reserve forecasts markets across the world pay enormous attention to every economic forecast made by federal reserve governors particularly those from the chair this article develops a new way that the academic literature can assess the accuracy of these federal reserve forecasts in particular our proposed method allows for both general and specific predictions to be assessed while also accounting for the macroeconomic volatility that prevails at the time of the forecast to develop this measure we expand upon a methodology proposed by the wall street journal to score the accuracy of forecasts made by the fed our results show that alan greenspan was consistently the most accurate forecaster among fed governors while the most recent chair in our sample janet yellen has performed relatively poorly more generally we find that the chairs have become less accurate over time with their forecasts and have also tended to make fewer specific predictions

measuring energy poverty focusing on what matters abstract the provision of modern energy services is recognised as a critical foundation for sustainable development and is central to the everyday lives of people effective policies to dramatically expand modern energy access need to be grounded in a robust information base metrics that can be used for comparative purposes and to track progress towards targets therefore represent an essential support tool this paper reviews the relevant literature and discusses the adequacy and applicability of existing instruments to measure energy poverty drawing on those insights it proposes a new composite index to measure energy poverty both the associated methodology and initial results for several african countries are discussed whereas most existing indicators and composite indices focus on assessing the access to energy or the degree of development related to energy our new index the multidimensional energy poverty index mepi focuses on the deprivation of access to modern energy services it captures both the incidence and intensity of energy poverty and provides a new tool to support policy making

energy planning and its relationship to energy poverty in decision making a first approach for the canary islands abstract after reviewing the energy policies in the canary islands this study addresses the concept of energy poverty from a different perspective than that usually found in the academic literature this analysis advances knowledge of the role played by the following six pillars sustainability renewable energies energy efficiency self consumption regimes electrification of energy demand and electrical interconnections regarding energy poverty in these isolated environments the relationship of these pillars with energy poverty is analysed in terms of energy scenarios projected for 2030 the results show that the interrelations between these six elements are a good indicator of the evolution of energy poverty they also provide a roadmap for energy policy in these regions this research highlights the importance of promoting energy policies that are not based on short term results and that energy strategy does not necessarily require planning more tasks in a shorter time intending to asses policies suitable for implementation in the medium and long term this study proposes alternative definitions to measure energy poverty by identifying the key pillars in energy planning for the canary islands

a new data set on monetary policy the economic forecasts of individual members of the fomc this paper describes a new data set of the forecasts of output growth inflation and unemployment prepared by individual members of the federal open market committee the paper discusses the scope of the data set possibilities for extending it and some potential uses it offers a preliminary examination of some of the cross sectional features of the data