the prospective of coal power in china will it reach a plateau in the coming decade abstract coal power holds the king position in china s generation mix and has resulted in ever increasing ecological and environmental issues hence the development of the electric power sector is confronted with a series of new challenges china has recently adopted a new economic principle of the new economic normal which has a large effect on the projection electricity demand and power generation planning through 2020 this paper measures electricity demand based upon china s social and economic structure the 2020 roadmap presents china s developing targets for allocating energy resources to meet new demands and the 2030 roadmap is compiled based upon an ambitious expansion of clean energy sources results show that electricity demand is expected to reach 7500 twh in 2020 and 9730 twh in 2030 coal power is expected to reach its peak in 2020 at around 970 gw and will then enter a plateau even with a pathway of active electricity substitution in place

understanding responses to supply chain disruptions insights from information processing and resource dependence perspectives why how and under what conditions do firms respond to supply chain disruptions these are important questions given that firms around the world are increasingly exposed to disruptions that impede their supply chain relationships and associated operations this study applies information processing and resource dependence perspectives to identify the repertoire of strategic responses to supply chain disruptions and to devise and test a model that explains the occurrence of the alternative responses the findings suggest that these responses are shaped by the stability motive and by interpretative postures which evolve from past experiences

energy efficiency and productivity change of china s iron and steel industry accounting for undesirable outputs abstract this paper used data from 50 enterprises in china s iron and steel industry to evaluate their energy efficiency and productivity change the study first used a conventional data envelopment analysis model and the malmquist productivity index mpi to measure the energy efficiency and productivity change over the period 2001 2008 the results indicated inefficiency in many of the plants the average energy efficiency was only 61 1 the annual growth rate of productivity was 7 96 over this period and technical change was the main contributor to this growth the research then took undesirable outputs into consideration by using the malmquist luenberger productivity index mlpi to explore the productivity change from 2006 to 2008 omitting undesirable outputs would result in biased efficiency change and technical change this paper also claimed that environmental regulation has a potentially positive impact on technical change

a step toward understanding wind power development policy barriers in advanced economies abstract a widely accepted premise regarding wind power development policy is that implementation of economic policy instruments which are designed to close the cost gap between wind power and entrenched fossil fuel power generation technologies will significantly catalyze enhanced levels of wind power development activity this paper contests this premise by arguing that non economic barriers to wind power development have the capacity to significantly inhibit wind power development in industrialized nations despite the implementation of economic policy instruments forces which deter wind power development in four economically advanced economies that exhibit phlegmatic progress in wind power development australia canada japan and taiwan are identified and amalgamated into a step framework describing social technical economic and political forces that inhibit wind power development the conclusions of this analysis are twofold first failure to mitigate these step forces may undermine the efficacy of any given economic policy instrument that aims to close the cost gap between wind power and entrenched generation technologies second attempts to mitigate these impediments might represent a way to achieve better policy results with less government financial commitment

understanding developing country stances on post 2012 climate change negotiations comparative analysis of brazil china india mexico and south africa abstract an essential issue in future climate negotiations is how to bring developing countries on board this paper proposes and applies the two level interest based model to analyze the factors that affect the likely stances of the plus five countries brazil china india mexico and south africa on international climate negotiations this study finds mitigation capability to be a crucial factor which consists of at least such sub factors as per capita income energy endowment and economic structure while ecological vulnerability does not seem to play an important role which includes reductions in agricultural outputs sea level rise climate related natural disasters and others the paper proposes six options in an ascending order of stringency that the plus five are likely to adopt the paper suggests that the basic four the plus five excluding mexico particularly china and india are less likely to adopt a voluntary commitment to an emissions cap on the national economy in the near future than mexico which has the highest mitigation capability among all five the basic four are likely to adopt more stringent climate polices with increasing mitigation capabilities suggesting the importance of effective international financial and technology transfer mechanisms and further tighten emission reduction targets from developed countries

co2 emissions embodied in china s exports from 2002 to 2008 a structural decomposition analysis abstract this study examines the annual co2 emissions embodied in china s exports from 2002 to 2008 using environmental input output analysis four driving forces including emission intensity economic production structure export composition and total export volume are compared for their contributions to the increase of embodied co2 emissions using a structural decomposition analysis sda technique although offset by the decrease in emission intensity the increase of embodied co2 emissions was driven by changes of the other three factors in particular the change of the export composition was the largest driver primarily due to the increasing fraction of metal products in china s total export relevant policy implications and future research directions are discussed at the end of the paper

potential sources of productivity growth within chinese industry abstract this paper presents an approach for modeling and estimating potential sources of productivity growth within four major sectors of chinese industry the state and collective sectors and heavy and light industry the findings based upon industrial data from293 chinese counties indicate that substantial productivity gains can be achieved by transferring technology from the state to the collective sector exploiting enterprise and agglomerative scale economies and reallocating investment and labor to take advantage of large disparities between factor returns among the sectors the implications for the results of several idiosyncracies of chinese industrial prices and data are examined

china s capacities for mitigating climate change summary economic growth and structural change have turned china into the largest emitter of greenhouse gases in the world the country has no international commitments to reduce its emissions but it has developed domestic policies and climate relevant capacities which do have mitigative effects economic and political reforms have supported capacity development however so far china s climate relevant actions have not been influenced by climate considerations potential emission reductions are mainly a by product of measures embedded in energy and transport policies aimed at cutting energy costs and increasing energy security

minimization of disruption related return flows in the supply chain abstract recent research on closed loop supply chains sc and reverse logistics extensively emphasises the crucial role of reducing negative return flows such as emissions waste etc in this study we consider the return flows in the sc in light disruptive events in the sc the objective of this study is to compare the performance impact of different recovery policies on return flows subject to the simultaneously optimized re configuration plans for material flows we formulate a multi objective problem with return flow reduction function for a multi period multi stage multi product sc we consider a recovery problem with ripple effect performance impact assessment and re planning decisions the developed multi objective hybrid linear programming system dynamics model allows simultaneously re computing the material flows in a multi stage sc after a disruption and comparing the performance impact of different recovery policies subject to return flows gradual capacity recovery variable recovery costs and time the results suggest that the consideration of gradual capacity recovery leads to minimization of disruption related return flows in both upstream and downstream sc parts fast and expensive recovery strategy provides the lowest return costs in the upstream sc part as compared to normal and slow recovery policies similar the profits and service levels are increased in the fast and expensive recovery policy the performance in the upstream and downstream does not change with the introduction of the gradual recovery considerations the effects of gradual capacity recovery introduction become evident if smaller time sub periods are considered within the recovery period

grid connected renewable energy in china policies and institutions under gradualism developmentalism and socialism abstract this communication displays some of our on going research on the incompleteness of china s advances toward best practice in policy making and institution building for renewables in particular this paper 1 summarizes how chinese policies and institutions for the deployment of renewable electricity are only partially compliant with what is internationally recognized as best practice and 2 contextualizes chinese policies and institutions for renewables in the broader picture of china s political economy much as a political economy perspective has aided the understanding of why chinese economic reforms were partial and unique the said contextualization might help explain why china s policies and institutions for renewables diverge from best practice further given that china proved successful in promoting its economic growth with partial and unique reforms the partiality and uniqueness of its renewables policies and institutions need not impede the rapid development of renewable electricity this on going research has so far combined a review of specialized literature and the business press with semi structured interviews held with relevant actors in policy business and research related to renewable energies

effects of farm size education and off farm income on productive efficiency of dairy farmers in utah a stochasitc frontier approach this study is primarily concerned with investigating the technical allocative and scale inefficiency of owner operators of dairy farms in utah a stochastic production frontier has been applied to analyze these inefficiencies the results indicate that there is positive association between years of education and productivity of labor and capital productivity is also found to be negatively related to off farm income regarding the effects of farm size on efficiency it is found that large farms are the most efficient of all sizes considered separate estimates of technical allocative and scale inefficiencies indicate that large and medium sized farms are technically more efficient than small farms large farms on average are found to be performing much better than medium sized and small farms so far as allocative and scale inefficiency are concerned copyright 1989 by mit press

wind power policy in complex adaptive markets abstract this paper aims to advance research into the effectiveness of policies for encouraging technological transition in the energy sector in general and wind power in particular it contends that the ineffectiveness of wind power development policy in most nations stems from a linear approach to policy design that is unsuited to complex adaptive markets the paper argues that in complex adaptive markets policies are required that foster competition on a level playing field insights are extracted from complexity theory to advance four principles for effective wind power policy in such markets these principles include establishing policy initiatives to encourage technological diversity establish clear and progressive short to medium term targets enhance environmental monitoring systems and establish a malleable policy regime that directly resolves emergent challenges while simultaneously sustaining market momentum to ensure long term targets are met in order to demonstrate the applied relevance of these principles the paper applies these concepts to a historical analysis of denmark s wind power development policies

recent development of energy supply and demand in china and energy sector prospects through 2030 abstract facing multiple pressures including its commitment to energy efficiency improvement the current worldwide recession and global warming concerns china is making great efforts to maintain its continuous economic growth and reduce pollutant emissions many policies to encourage investing in energy efficiency and renewable energy have been issued this article provides insights into the latest development of energy production energy consumption and energy strategic planning and policies in china and also describes the analysis carried out by the authors as part of the asian energy security project using the long range energy alternatives planning leap modeling tool of the impacts of implementing new and expected energy and environmental policies

can chinese state enterprises perform like market entities productive efficiency in the chinese iron and steel industry as a consequence of economic reforms in china firms have ben affected by three essential changes first instead of surrendering all profits to the government firms now pay tax on their profits according to a contract between them and the government and retain the balance as their own controllable surplus second the central economic plan determines only part of firms production after fulfilling the command plan firms are allowed to adjust their production scale by the availability of inputs and the profitability of production third most consumer and investment goods have two prices a plan price and a market price as most of the plan prices are always lower than the market prices the latter play a basic role in determining firms profits after a decade of economic reforms the important question is can chinese state enterprises perform like market entities the analysis shows that chinese firms in transition domimic the production behaviour of market based efficiency oriented firms

provincial allocation of coal de capacity targets in china in terms of cost efficiency and fairness developing a de capacity scheme that is economical fair and efficient has become a key problem affecting the smooth achievement of coal de capacity targets it is also an important policy issue with regard to the overall implementation of china s supply side structural reforms in this study we use the production function method as well as the panel variable coefficient model to calculate the 25 provinces boundary production functions for the coal industry which leads to the estimation of the coal capacity and capacity utilization rate of each province taking into account the labor resettlement cost and disposal cost of fixed assets a total cost function of coal de capacity is established the growth rate function of total factor productivity tfp in the coal industry is constructed by the solow residual value method an allocation model of coal de capacity is then proposed based on multi objective nonlinear optimization with constraint conditions on the total reduction amount and minimum output of coal in each region finally using the relevant data of china s 25 coal producing provinces in 1990 2015 the allocation of coal de capacity is obtained under the goal of minimizing the total cost and maximizing the tfp growth rate the results show that the capacity utilization rate of china s coal industry is much lower than the lower limit of the reasonable utilization ratio while tfp shows negative growth over a long period the comparative analytical results indicate that in terms of total cost the optimal allocation scheme is 44 5335 billion yuan lower than the government allocation scheme the disposal cost of fixed assets and labor resettlement costs decrease by 29 2749 billion yuan and 15 2586 billion yuan respectively in terms of tfp growth the optimal allocation scheme has a 1 54 higher tfp growth rate compared with the government allocation scheme in terms of fairness the gini coefficients of the optimal scheme calculated by various indexes are all smaller than 0 3 placing the scheme within the category of considerable or absolute fairness in addition we calculate the optimal allocation ratio of coal de capacity in the situation where cost preference and quality preference of central government are considered to verify the intrinsic consistency of the model in brief the optimal allocation scheme proposed in this study effectively realizes the integration of economy efficiency and fairness 2018 elsevier b v

coal power overcapacity and investment bubble in china during 2015 2020 abstract electricity consumption growth in china has experienced radical adjustment from high speed to medium speed with the advent of new economy normal however the investment enthusiasm on coal power remains unabated and leads to continuous operation efficiency deterioration in recent years in this paper we quantify the rational capacity and potential investment of coal power in china during the 13th fyp period 2016 2020 by employing power planning model and fully considering the power sector s contribution in the 15 non fossil primary energy supply target by 2020 we estimate that the reasonable capacity addition space of coal power ranges between 50 gw and 100 gw depending on the expected range of demand growth we find that if all the coal power projects submitted for environmental impact assessment eia approval were put into operation in 2020 capacity excess would reach 200 gw such huge overcapacity will bring forth disastrous consequences including enormous investment waste poor economic performance of generators and more importantly delay of low carbon energy transition finally policy recommendations are proposed to address this issue

energy conservation and emissions reduction in china progress and prospective abstract energy conservation ec has been taken as basic state policy in china for more than 20 years and china achieves 3 9 annual energy saving from 1980 to 2005 in 2006 china central government firstly set up a binding target of reducing gdp energy intensity by 20 in its 11th five year plan fyp at the end of 2010 19 1 reduction in energy intensity has been achieved which is 95 of the target and means 608 million tons stand coal equivalence sce saved 1510 million tons co 2 emission reduced 300 billion rmb saving in energy bill and vast saving in infrastructure investment this paper is systematical review and prospective analysis on energy policy issue in china review on policy evolution and progress of ec and emission reduction er in china during the 11th fyp periods is presented in detail outlook of energy demand and supply into 2050 is presented and the roadmap to realize sustainable energy development is drafted to set the framing constraints for china s energy policy options rationality and feasibility analysis on newly formulated 12th fyp ec and er target is also addressed then lessons from the 11th fyp periods are drawn and factors underlying and limiting the policy formulation and implementation are discussed in details to probe the policy predicament and solutions finally policy suggestions are proposed for long term successful implementation of ec and er in china

on measuring economic efficiency summary this paper considers a system consisting of a production frontier and factor share equations to measure firm specific technical efficiency and input specific allocative efficiency simultaneously in estimating the system as a whole the joint distribution of all errors in the equations is used this is more efficient than using the marginal distribution of a function of the errors as one does by estimating either the profit function or the production function alone the workability of the method is illustrated by applying it to farm level data from philippines agriculture

journey for green development transformation of china s metal industry a spatial econometric analysis abstract the metal industry mi in china is energy and emissions intensive this paper tries to provide guidance for the green development transformation of china s mi by investigating the green total factor productivity gtfp and its influencing factors using a global data envelopment analysis and a spatial tobit regression model the estimation results show that 1 from 2000 to 2015 gtfp of china s mi enjoyed a considerable improvement however the current value of gtfp of china s mi is still less than 0 5 indicating that gtfp of china s mi is far from efficient 2 the spatial correlation test shows that gtfps of china s provincial mis have positive spatial correlations most of the provinces scattered in high high and low low agglomerations 3 gtfp of china s mi is significantly positive related to the degree of marketization fiscal decentralization environmental regulation industrial scale is significantly negative related to resources endowment and product structure and has u shaped relationship with the level of economic development the above results suggest that china already has made remarkable achievements in promoting green development of its mi however there is much room for further improvement policy options for the green development transformation of china s mi include but are not limited to promoting market oriented and financial system reforms strengthening environmental supervision and optimizing industrial scale and product structure finally recommendations for the effective implementation of these policies are provided at the end of the study

a multi objective stochastic programming approach for supply chain design considering risk abstract in this paper we develop a multi objective stochastic programming approach for supply chain design under uncertainty demands supplies processing transportation shortage and capacity expansion costs are all considered as the uncertain parameters to develop a robust model two additional objective functions are added into the traditional comprehensive supply chain design problem so our multi objective model includes i the minimization of the sum of current investment costs and the expected future processing transportation shortage and capacity expansion costs ii the minimization of the variance of the total cost and iii the minimization of the financial risk or the probability of not meeting a certain budget the ideas of unreliable suppliers and capacity expansion after the realization of uncertain parameters are also incorporated into the model finally we use the goal attainment technique to obtain the pareto optimal solutions that can be used for decision making

will recent boom in coal power lead to a bust in china a micro economic analysis abstract in this paper by adopting the levelized cost of electricity model and the financial appraisal method we provide an economic interpretation for china s recent coal power bubble under weak demand growth the study surveys the economics of a typical 600 mw newly built pure condensing coal fired power plant in six case provinces shanxi inner mongolia xinjiang hebei jiangsu and guangdong where the profitability margins of coal power are above national average by the end of 2015 results indicate that the continuous falling in coal prices have lowered the generation costs but there has been insufficient adjustment to the benchmark on grid tariff enabling coal power to obtain unprecedented excess profits such excess profits have spurred the investment and caused local government to over rely on coal power under economic downturn however in the context of cost escalation by deteriorated operation efficiency higher environmental and climate change compliance costs and fierce market competition the profitability of coal power will dissipate soon integrated power capacity plan consistent with the new economic normal stringent control on the scale of new coal power projects and deep power market reform are the key policy implications of our analysis

did the technical efficiency of state enterprises improve with the same speed in all provinces in china the objectives of this study are to examine whether technical efficiency of china s state enterprises improved over time due to the impact of economic reforms and to examine whether the response rates varied significantly across provinces the results carry strong policy implications for future reforms the empirical results show that technical efficiency improved significantly due to economic reforms from 1986 to 1989 shanghai appears to have responded more quickly and consistently to economic reforms than other provinces over the period

the socio political economy of electricity generation in china abstract in addition to providing a review of electricity generation developments in china this paper features the development of a framework for understanding the socio political economy influencing electricity market development it documents and presents a critical evaluation of the social technological economic and political forces which influence electricity generation policy in china the analysis provides insight into why china s electricity generation shopping basket is being filled with both coal and co2 reduced electricity generation technologies it concludes that installed capacity of hydro power wind power nuclear power and solar pv power will outpace government projections due to inter alia a proclivity on the part of the chinese government to set conservative and achievable targets waning apathy toward pollution associated with coal fired power progressive improvements in grid connection and resilience increased economic viability of these alternative energy sources and government support for these industries as strategic commercial sectors

productive performance in west german manufacturing industry 1970 80 a farrell frontier characterisation some measure of the success with which economic resources are utilised lies at the heart of any meaningful indicator of economic performance a traditional and obvious point of departure is to say that for a given state of technical knowledge and initial endowments of factor inputs resource allocation depends on the degree of ability to transform inputs into outputs and the relative returns which these resources can earn in this paper the more recent productive performance of the west german manufacturing sector is appraised from one particular viewpoint whilst remaining firmly within what might be called the conventional framework of relating outputs to the factor inputs labour and capital section ii provides an initial brief overview of the west german manufacturing sector over the period i 970 80 in which some of the more interesting trends are noted for a more detailed analysis in later sections section iii sets out the approach used again this is not very extensive given the relatively well documented nature of the methodology section iv takes the form of some notes on the data used with a more substantial section v containing the major analysis some more general observations and concluding comments are brought together in a final section vi

decomposition of carbon intensity in electricity production technological innovation and structural adjustment in china s power sector abstract china s power generation accounted for 24 of the world s total output ranking first in 2015 as a suitable performance indicator carbon intensity of electricity reflects a variation in the average level of carbon emissions per unit of electricity generated as the largest carbon emitter among various industries power sector is in duty bound to reduce carbon emissions and achieve sustainable development great progress has been made in china s power sector which is reflected by the effects of technological innovation and structural adjustment with logarithm transformation and integral transformation three dimensional decomposition model is proposed to quantitatively measure the changed carbon intensity of electricity due to technological innovation and structural adjustment in the context of three dimensional model the variation of carbon intensity can be decomposed into absolute changes and or relative changes furthermore accumulative decomposition results are obtained by chain linked calculation rules finally the proposed models are implemented in china s power industry to reveal its historical progress during 1980 2014 some important conclusions are also found based on the decomposition results

the power industry reform in china 2015 policies evaluations and solutions abstract more than a decade ago in china s electric power industry the investment for generation side and power grids was inadequate and the gap between power supply and demand kept enlarging in order to relief the problems above power industry reform has been carried out in 2002 under the guidance of no 5 document by the central government the reform in 2002 has made a series of achievements including the enhancement of operation efficiency of power industry and the fulfillment of power demand all over the country during the past decade as the rapid development of the society and economy the external environment of china s power industry has changed greatly however the pricing and planning mechanism of china s power industry still operates following the requirements of no 5 document this has led to a number of problems including twisted pricing mechanism irrational power system planning inefficient utilization of renewable energy and so on these problems have not only hindered the development of power industry in china for quite a long time but also brought negative influence on the business operation of upstream and downstream industries therefore chinese government has issued no 9 document in 2015 and launched a new round of power industry reform policies were carried out to form new pricing mechanism new policies about renewable energy generation and power system planning process to solve the problems mentioned above this paper has reviewed the history of reform in 2002 and summarized the existing problems of china s power industry besides the main policies of no 9 document were deeply analyzed and their significance as well as backwards were illustrated at last solutions were proposed accordingly and these solutions have considerable theoretical and practical significance to china s electric power industry reform in the future

integrated resource strategic planning in china abstract many governments around the world are focusing on emissions reduction through energy efficiency improvements particularly on the demand side although integrated resource planning irp which considers both supply side and demand side options had been a useful tool in the planning process for the power industry its effectiveness has been challenged recently with the restructuring of the power sector that has occurred in china and elsewhere around the world the paper proposes integrated resource strategic planning irsp as an alternative to irp in a deregulated power sector irsp takes the resource planning process one step further to the national level in this paper the authors demonstrate the tremendous potential for efficiency improvements on both the supply and demand sides of the power sector in china with irsp the results show that between 2009 and 2020 the potential for electricity savings will reach about 1228 5 twh and the potential reduction in carbon dioxide co 2 emissions will be about 1020 5 million tons another important finding of this study is that the current market based pricing system in china should be improved to provide sufficient incentives for pursuing energy savings on the demand side

how to reform a planned economy lessons from china the countries of eastern europe and the former soviet union have been flooded with advice from the west on how to liberalize their planned econo mies this advice is unfortunately offered in an empirical vacuum no one knows how these econo mies will react to the proposed liberalization meas ures there exists however a neglected source of information china offers a long time series of data over a decade s worth on the effects of reforms on a planned economy china s reforms were gradual but their cumulative effect has been large and they have been remarkably successful china s experiments provide some practical les sons on what kinds of reforms can work elsewhere the dominant school of thought among economists favours the big bang policy of reforming quickly and according to a comprehensive plan partial reforms in this view are useless they will be negated by the remnants of the planning system the proponents of big bang reform have been influential with poland czechoslovakia and rus sia announcing plans for a rapid transition to capi talism