optimal dynamic pricing of inventories with stochastic demand over finite horizons in many industries managers face the problem of selling a given stock of items by a deadline we investigate the problem of dynamically pricing such inventories when demand is price sensitive and stochastic and the firm s objective is to maximize expected revenues examples that fit this framework include retailers selling fashion and seasonal goods and the travel and leisure industry which markets space such as seats on airline flights cabins on vacation cruises and rooms in hotels that become worthless if not sold by a specific time we formulate this problem using intensity control and obtain structural monotonicity results for the optimal intensity resp price as a function of the stock level and the length of the horizon for a particular exponential family of demand functions we find the optimal pricing policy in closed form for general demand functions we find an upper bound on the expected revenue based on analyzing the deterministic version of the problem and use this bound to prove that simple fixed price policies are asymptotically optimal as the volume of expected sales tends to infinity finally we extend our results to the case where demand is compound poisson only a finite number of prices is allowed the demand rate is time varying holding costs are incurred and cash flows are discounted the initial stock is a decision variable and reordering overbooking and random cancellations are allowed

assortment planning in fashion retailing methodology application and analysis abstract assortment planning is the process conducted by the retailer to determine the number and types of products in a line key questions that arise in this process include choosing the inventory depth and variety breadth and the mix between basic and fashion merchandise of the assortment to maximize expected profits we describe a method for resolving these questions using demand forecasts derived from historical sales patterns we use a nonlinear integer programming model to make the assortment choice efficient heuristics are developed to solve this problem we applied our method at a large catalog retailer specializing in women s apparel we compared our method to the existing rules used by this retailer and found that it could choose the assortment in a manner that reduces markdowns due to excessive inventory and lost margins due to stockouts by enough to increase profits by at least 40 insights are developed to better understand why products are included in an assortment and the implications of this choice on the realized profit we extend our model to include shelf space constraints and the effect of assortment choice on product demand

global feminization through flexible labor abstract the emphasis on structural adjustment and labor flexibility in both developing and industrialized economies is rapidly altering the nature of employment women are being substituted for men and many forms of work are being converted into the kinds of jobs traditionally geared to women international data on recent trends in female economic activity reveal that new types of labor data are needed to highlight the mechanisms of control over workers and the actual economic forms of vulnerability to which women are exposed the paper concludes by posing questions that challenge the traditional concerns of donors and policy makers in many developing countries

the benefits of advance booking discount programs model and analysis consider a retailer who sells perishable seasonal products with uncertain demand due to the short sales season and long replenishment lead times associated with such products the retailer is unable to update demand forecasts by using actual sales data generated from the early part of the season and to respond by replenishing stocks during the season to overcome this limitation we examine the case in which the retailer develops a program called the advance booking discount abd program that entices customers to commit to their orders at a discount price prior to the selling season the time between placement and fulfillment of these precommitted orders provides an opportunity for the retailer to update demand forecasts by utilizing information generated from the precommitted orders and to respond by placing a cost effective order at the beginning of the selling season in this paper we evaluate the benefits of the abd program and characterize the optimal discount price that maximizes the retailer s expected profit

sales and collusion in a market with storage sales are a widespread and well known phenomenon documented in several product markets this paper presents a novel rationale for sales that does not rely on consumer heterogeneity or on any form of randomness to explain such periodic price fluctuations the analysis is carried out in the context of a simple repeated price competition model and establishes that firms must periodically reduce prices in order to sustain collusion when goods are storable and the market is large the largest equilibrium profits are characterized at any market size a trade off between the size of the industry and its profits arises sales foster collusion by magnifying the inter temporal links in consumers decisions

sdg 8 decent work and economic growth a gendered analysis abstract sdg 8 calls for promoting sustained inclusive and sustainable economic growth full and productive employment and decent work for all even as it highlights the importance of labour rights for all it also makes visible some significant tensions we note for example that despite many critiques of narrow economic measures of growth the focus here remains on gdp and per capita growth this is problematic we argue because the gdp productive boundary excludes much of social reproductive work this puts sdg8 in tension with sdg 5 which calls for the recognition of the value of unpaid care and domestic work there has been a significant increase in the rate of working women in the formal and informal sector however there has not been a subsequent gender shift in the doing of social reproductive work in this paper we argue sdg 8 s focus on decent work and economic growth is inadequate that productive employment and decent work for all men and women by 2030 needs to take into account the value and costs of social reproduction we trace key historical debates on work to argue that both gender and labour rights have to underpin sdg 8 if its promise of inclusive sustainable and decent work is to be realized

the use of blanket guarantees in banking crises policymakers often use guarantees on bank liabilities to prevent or contain bank runs during systemic banking crises but their success has been debated using a sample of 42 episodes of banking crises this paper finds that blanket guarantees do help to reduce liquidity pressures on banks but only partially since they do not stem withdrawals from non residents withdrawals following the announcement of guarantees are much more pronounced for non resident liabilities than for foreign currency denominated deposits which may also be held by residents suggesting that the results on non residents are not driven by foreign currency risk but by concerns about the government s ability and commitment to honor the guarantee to non resident liability holders

international competition income distribution and economic growth this paper shows that the neo keynesian case for wage led growth does not generally hold in an open economy model wage increases cause a loss of competitiveness that reduces the trade balance if the economy is relatively open to trade and price elasticities satisfy certain restrictions the worsening of the trade balance more than outweighs the increase in workers consumption thus reducing the growth rate the main theoretical innovation is a flexible markup pricing rule that allows changes in unit labor costs and exchange rates to affect profit margins implications for international relations and class conflict are discussed copyright 1989 by oxford university press

the timing and magnitude of retail store markdowns evidence from weekends and holidays we examine daily prices of eight goods at seventeen retail stores collected in ann arbor michigan over a four month period from november 1 to february 28 we focus on weekly and seasonal price patterns and on the frequency of price markdowns or sales there were frequent markdowns in the intensive shopping period prior to christmas and a tendency for such sales to occur on weekends we interpret these findings as evidence that a significant number of markdowns are timed to occur when shopping intensity is exogenously high we complement the imperfect information based motives for sales in the literature by contributing an additional element based on the role of bulk shopping and increasing returns in the shopping technology

the measurement of retail output and the retail revolution the computerization of retailing has made price dispersion a norm in the united states so that any given list price or transactions price is an increasingly imperfect measure of a product s resource cost as a consequence measuring the real output of retailers has become increasingly difficult food retailing is used as a case study to examine data problems in retail productivity measurement crude direct measures of grocery store output suggest that the cpi for food at home may have been overstated by 1 4 percentage points annually from 1978 to 1996 this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

financial liberalization financial regulation and bank efficiency a multi country analysis this article investigates the impact of financial reforms on bank efficiency more specifically we distinguish between two different types of financial reforms i e financial liberalization measures and measures of the quality of bank regulation and supervision i e financial regulation and study their relationship to bank efficiency separately moreover we analyse whether the impact of financial liberalization on bank efficiency is conditional on the quality of regulation and supervision of the banking system we apply stochastic frontier analysis to calculate bank efficiency at the individual bank level and use a new and detailed database that measures different aspects of financial reforms the data set consists of 87 312 bank year observations covering 61 countries for the period 1996 2005 overall we show that the impact of financial liberalization policies on bank efficiency is conditional on the extent to which bank regulation and supervision has been adopted and developed

permanent and transitory oil volatility and aggregate investment in malaysia abstract this paper investigates the relation between aggregate investment and oil volatility and its permanent and transitory components for a developing country malaysia in the paper the components generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity cgarch model is utilized to decompose conditional oil volatility into permanent oil volatility and transitory oil volatility respectively reflecting fundamental driven and random shifts in oil volatility they are expected to exert differential effects on aggregate investment adopting a vector autoregression var framework to allow feedback effects between aggregate investment and its determinants the paper documents evidence supporting the adverse effects of conditional oil volatility permanent oil volatility and transitory oil volatility on aggregate investment and real output interestingly contrary to the findings for the developed markets us and oecd the real effects of permanent oil volatility tend to be stronger these findings are reasonably robust to variable specification and measurements in the var system hence there is an indication that heightened oil volatility accounts for the slumps in malaysia s aggregate investment after the asian financial crisis

patterns of retail price variation we examine retail price variation across a range of goods and regions of the united states we find that the typical grocery product has a regular price and stays at that price at least 50 of the time and that most deviations from that regular price are downward temporary discounts or sales while infrequent account for 20 to 50 of the annual variation in retail prices for most product categories although existing models of retail sales yield predictions consistent with some aspects of the retail pricing distributions all of these models fail to explain other important aspects of retail pricing identified here

dynamic pricing behavior in perishable goods markets evidence from secondary markets for major league baseball tickets sellers of perishable goods increasingly use dynamic pricing strategies as technology makes it easier to change prices and track inventory this paper tests how accurately theoretical models of dynamic pricing describe sellers behavior in secondary markets for event tickets a classic example of a perishable good it shows that the simplest dynamic pricing models describe very accurately both the pricing problem faced by sellers and how they behave explaining why sellers cut prices dramatically by 40 percent or more as an event approaches the estimates also imply that dynamic pricing is valuable raising the average seller s expected payoff by around 16 percent

can bait and switch benefit consumers we present a model that leads to an equilibrium with characteristics similar to the following stylized facts observed in retail markets a retailers advertise only selected brands b often low priced advertised brands are understocked c in store promotions are biased towards more expensive substitute brands together these practices constitute illegal bait and switch is this phenomenon necessarily harmful to consumers and to the economy we show that bait and switch can benefit consumers because utility is created through in store promotions and price competition is enhanced this suggests that the ftc investigate further its ban on bait and switch

the effect of export oriented growth on female labor market outcomes in turkey using data from two rounds of an official household labor force survey this paper analyzes the impact of export oriented growth strategy on female labor force participation and employment in urban turkey controlling for both supply side and demand side factors while the long term economic growth at the province level is found to have a significant positive effect on both the employment and participation of women the impact of export orientation is not as strong and is more pronounced in the case of nonmarried women

globalisation women s economic rights and forced labour economy s penetration by foreign direct investment by and large has no sta tistically significant impact globalisation might weaken the general bargaining position of labour such that outcome related la bour standards might suffer however being more open toward trade is likely to promote rather than hinder the realisation of t wo labour rights considered as core or fundamental by the international labour organisation namely the elimination of economic discrimination and of forced labour

reducing the cost of demand uncertainty through accurate response to early sales traditionally fashion products have incurred high losses due to stockouts and inventory obsolence because long lead times coupled with a concentrated selling season force all or at least most production to be committed before demand information is available under a quick response system lead times are shortened sufficiently to allow a greater portion of production to be scheduled in response to initial demand we model and analyze the decisions required under quick response and give a method for estimating the demand probability distributions needed in our model we applied these procedures with a major fashion skiwear firm and found that cost relative to the current informal response system was reduced by enough to increase profits by 60 relative to the cost that would have been incurred if no response were used optimized response reduces cost by enough to roughly quadruple profits

demand uncertainty and sales a study of fashion and markdown pricing the theory of clearance sales is expanded and applied to explain why markups markdowns and the frequency of sales of merchandise sold by department stores have increased dramatically in recent years and why they differ across merchandise groups tha major theme of the paper is that the growing role of fashion and product variety is an important reason for these increases and for the differences between merchandise groups the growing importance of fashion is illustrated by documenting the declining use of whites and the increasing use of colors and prints estimates of the effects of imports and technological and demographic changes on markups and markdowns are presented copyright 1988 by american economic association

the effect of trade openness on women s welfare and work life summary this study of 134 countries analyzes whether women are generally the losers or winners of globalization the results show that economic integration does not directly improve women s life expectancies women s access to primary and secondary education may improve slightly although women s welfare does not seem to improve more than that of men on the other hand economic integration does influence women s professional lives in developing countries trade openness increases female labor force participation in industrialized states it decreases the share of working women trade openness in developed countries increases the number of women employed in the service sector while in developing states it increases the number of women working in industrial jobs and in agriculture

implications of financial crisis for east asian trend growth the article sets the asian financial crisis in the context of the developmental state model of asian development and sees it as in part the downside risk of a financial liberalization that was badly handled but nevertheless appropriate as a stimulus to better productivity performance the east asian economies are shown still to have a large labour productivity gap with the leading oecd countries and substantial scope for further rapid catch up growth historical experience suggests that the policy response to the crisis is fundamental not only to immediate recovery prospects but also to realizing this remaining fast growth potential

gender inequality and economic growth a reply to schober and winter ebmer summary using data from a meta wage analysis schober and winter ebmer fail to confirm my earlier finding that gender wage inequality stimulates growth in semi industrialized economies sies the authors contend their wage data based on micro level studies with heterogeneous coverage are superior to the education adjusted manufacturing wages on which my paper relied in response i elucidate why wage data should be restricted to the manufacturing sector i explore possible measurement errors their data introduce and note concerns with the meta regression approach that limit the applicability of these data to the specific task of understanding the growth effect of gender inequality in sies finally i discuss advances made over the last decade in the methodology used to evaluate gender effects on growth identifying directions for new research on this important topic

optimal best price policy abstract a best price policy bp is a promise by a seller to give her customer a refund if she reduces her price after the customer has already purchased the product we characterize the optimal bp policy as when the seller can control both the policy length when the promise expires and the refund scale what portion of the price difference is refunded we explain why the policy length is finite and varies across industries in a setting where consumers valuations decline over time we show that a finite length bp allows the seller to commit to not lowering her price too soon while at the same time letting her capture some of the benefits of intertemporal price discrimination however because the decline in consumers valuations is uncertain a bp does not allow the monopolist to achieve the profit she could earn with a full commitment

the mirage of fixed exchange rates this paper discusses the profound difficulties of maintaining fixed exchange rates in a world of expanding global capital markets contrary to popular wisdom industrialized country monetary authorities easily have the resources to defend exchange parities against virtually any private speculative attack but if their commitment to use those resources lacks credibility with markets the costs to the broader economy of defending an exchange rate peg can be very high the dynamic interplay between credibility and commitment is illustrated by the 1992 swedish and british crises and the 1994 95 mexican collapse we also discuss the small number of successful fixers

the outputs of retail activities concepts measurement and evidence from u s census data the authors develop a new economic framework for the empirical analysis of retail margins this framework formalizes the role of distribution services as outputs of retail activities their main results are the following the measures of outputs of retail activities identified in the data perform as important and robust determinants of retail margins variables that purport to capture oligopolistic features of market structure play a limited or no role in determining retail margins quantity setting and price setting under the assumptions of profit maximization and monopolistic competition are categorically rejected by the data the data base is information on 49 retail sectors from the 1982 u s census of retail trades copyright 1993 by mit press

dynamic competition with random demand and costless search a theory of price posting this paper studies a dynamic model of perfectly competitive price posting under demand uncertainty firms must produce output in advance after observing aggregate sales in prior periods firms post prices for their unsold output in each period the demand of a new batch of consumers is randomly activated existing customers who have not yet bought and then new customers arrive at the market in random order observe the posted prices and either purchase at the lowest available price or delay their purchase decision we construct a sequential equilibrium in which the output produced and its allocation across consumers is efficient thus consumers endogenously sort themselves efficiently with the highest valuations purchasing first transaction prices in each period rise continuously as firms become more optimistic about demand followed by a market correction by the last period prices are market clearing

contingent pricing to reduce price risks the price for a product may be set too low causing the seller to leave money on the table or too high driving away potential buyers contingent pricing can be useful in mitigating these problems in contingent pricing arrangements price is contingent on whether the seller succeeds in obtaining a higher price within a specified period we show that if the probability of obtaining the high price is not too high sellers profit from using contingent pricing while economic efficiency increases the optimal contingent pricing structure depends on the buyer s risk attitude a deep discount is most profitable if buyers are risk prone a consolation reward is most profitable if buyers are risk averse to motivate buyers to participate in a contingent pricing arrangement the seller must provide sufficient incentives consequently buyers also benefit from contingent pricing in addition because the buyers with the highest willingness to pay get the product contingent pricing increases the efficiency of resource allocation

stagnation income distribution and monopoly power the deceleration in the rate of industrial growth in the indian economy since the middlesixties initially interpreted by some as a temporary downward deviation from trend hasnow come to be generally accepted as reflecting long run tendencies towards stagnation several explanations for these tendencies have been offered bhagwati and desai 1970 and bhagwati and srinivasan 1975 have focused on inefficiencies and the misallocationof resources arising from industrial policies pursued by the government others chakravarty 1974 raj 1976 and vaidyanathan 1974 among them have emphasisedthe sluggishness of agricultural growth which is alleged to have retarded industrial growthby limiting markets and the supply of wage goods and raw materials a third view reflectedin srinivasan and narayana 1977 for example has put the blame on a slackening of invest ment demand due to lower public investment but does not explain why public investmentfell or why its fall restrained industrial growth finally there is the explanation put forthin bagchi 1970 1975 1982 in nayyar 1978 and in parts of mitra 1977 that inequali ties in income distribution have resulted in a limited demand for industrial goods reducedincentives for investment and therefore reduced growth this view seems to suggest apositive relation between growth and income equality which is opposed to the generallyaccepted idea derived from cambridge growth models that higher growth requires greaterinequality the purpose of this paper is to examine the last explanation by considering the inter action between growth and income distribution in an underdeveloped economy with thehelp of a simple macroeconomic model the model is a stylisation of the indian economy so that we will be able to use the model to assess the argument that a deceleration in therate of growth of the indian industrial economy could have been caused by an unequaldistribution of income the argument will not be made that this income distributional con straint is the binding constraint on industrial growth the model will merely examine theinternal consistency of the argument that a bad income distribution could explain stagnation in the sense of reduced growth and show that in the indian context as in other similarcontexts this argument can be put forward in explaining stagnation our argument is first presented with a highly simplified schematisation of the indianeconomy which we shall call the basic model the economy modelled produces only one

global financial instability framework events issues two of the key questions facing policymakers today are how to reduce the risk of global financial instability and how to cope with it when it occurs this paper starts by defining financial instability and then showing how it harms economic activity it then uses this framework to describe what happened during the recent financial crises in mexico and east asia the paper ends by raising several key policy issues not coincidentally these issues are addressed in the remaining papers in the symposium

fashion styling and the within season decline in automobile prices between 1954 and 1989 the seasonal variation in retail new car prices declined while the annual percentage decline in used car prices lessened to explain these long term changes this article suggests that a rise in the cost of a major model change has reduced the frequency of major model changes changed the characteristics of new models and resulted in smaller within season price declines new cars of adjacent model years have become closer substitutes as the importance of the annual model change has lessened the american automobile has slowly become less of a fashion product because it has become increasingly costly to supply frequent styling changes in contrast the within season price decline in women s apparel has increased over time as fashion has become more important reasons for the different price patterns are investigated

a theory of clearance sales clearance sales are widely used by firms as an intertemporal selling policy in particular in markets where firms face demand uncertainty and need to choose capacity in advance clearance sales consist in charging a high price initially but then lowering the price in the sales period high valuation consumers purchase the good at the high initial price so as to avoid rationing at the low price while low valuation consumers wait for the price to drop we develop a simple model of intertemporal monopoly pricing under demand uncertainty and show that clearance sales may be the optimal intertemporal selling policy

low schooling for girls slower growth for all cross country evidence on the effect of gender inequality in education on economic development using cross country and panel regressions this article investigates how gender inequality in education affects long term economic growth such inequality is found to have an effect on economic growth that is robust to changes in specifications and controls for potential endogeneities the results suggest that gender inequality in education directly affects economic growth by lowering the average level of human capital in addition growth is indirectly affected through the impact of gender inequality on investment and population growth some 0 4 0 9 percentage points of differences in annual per capita growth rates between east asia and sub saharan africa south asia and the middle east can be accounted for by differences in gender gaps in education between these regions

gender inequality and economic growth a cross country analysis abstract this paper investigates empirically the determinants of economic growth for a set of semi industrialized export oriented economies in which women provide the bulk of labor in the export sector the primary hypothesis tested is that gender inequality which contributes to women s relatively lower wages was a stimulus to growth via the effect on exports during 1975 95 empirical analysis shows that gdp growth is positively related to gender wage inequality in contrast to recent work which suggests that income inequality slows growth evidence also indicates that part of the impact of gender wage inequality on growth is transmitted through its positive effect on investment as a share of gdp

good bye financial repression hello financial crash some unintended consequences of financial liberalization in latin america are analyzed in this paper intrinsic imperfectious in financial markets and the policy dilemmas they pose are reviewed first the stylized facts of southern cone experiments in financial liberization are then presented alternative ways of organlzing domestic capital markets under latin american conditions are discussed and an eclectic reform mongering program is proposed

the credit crunch in east asia what can bank excess liquid assets tell us abstract the paper proposes a two step approach to assess the extent to which the fall in credit in crisis stricken east asian countries was a supply or demand induced phenomenon the first step is based on the estimation of demand function for excess liquid assets by commercial banks such a function is derived analytically in the first part of the paper the second step consists of establishing dynamic projections for the periods following the crisis and assessing whether or not residuals are large enough to be viewed as indicators of involuntary accumulation of excess reserves results for thailand indicate that the contraction in bank lending that accompanied the crisis was the result of supply factors

clearance pricing and inventory policies for retail chains clearance pricing and end of season inventory management are challenging and important problems in retailing sales rates depend upon price seasonal effects and the remaining assortment of items available to customers there is little time to react to observed sales and pricing errors result in either loss of potential revenue or excess inventory to be liquidated this paper develops optimal clearance prices and inventory management policies that take into account the impact of reduced assortment and seasonal changes on sales rates versions of these policies have been tested and implemented at three major retail chains and these applications are summarized and discussed

retail gasoline pricing what do we know abstract we use a data set consisting of a three year panel of prices from a sample of gasoline stations located in suburban washington dc and a corresponding census of the region s stations to develop three new empirical findings about retail gasoline pricing first while average retail margins vary substantially over time by more than 50 over the three years we analyze the shape of the margin distribution remains relatively constant second there is substantial heterogeneity in pricing behavior stations charging very low or very high prices are more likely to maintain their pricing position than stations charging prices near the mean third retail gasoline pricing is dynamic despite the heterogeneity in station pricing behavior stations frequently change their relative pricing position in this distribution sometimes dramatically we then relate these three findings to relevant theories of retail pricing while many models of retail pricing are consistent with some of our findings we find that all have serious shortcomings

determinants of exchange rate regime switching abstract exchange rate policy in many emerging markets shifts between a stronger and weaker commitment to peg this observation raises the following questions which we address in our paper does intervention policy exhibit switching and if so what causes policy to shift the theoretical literature increasingly points to the critical importance of financial fundamentals chinn m d kletzer k m 2001 imperfect information domestic regulation and financial crises in glick r moreno r spiegel m eds financial crises in emerging markets cambridge university press cambridge pp 196 237 dooley 2000 chang r velasco a 2005 monetary policy and the currency denomination of debt a tale of two equilibria kennedy school of government working paper series harvard university cambridge massachusetts among others direct empirical validation to date is limited however although relevant intuitions come from duration and indicators literature kaminsky g l reinhart c m vegh c a 2004 when it rains it pours procyclical capital flows and macroeconomic policies nber macroeconomics annual national bureau of economic research inc domac i peria m s 2003 banking crises and exchange rate regimes is there a link journal of international economics 61 41 72 tudela m 2004 explaining currency crises a duration model approach journal of international money and finance 23 799 816 we use a panel of quarterly data starting 1985 through 2004 for 14 countries mainly from latin america and east asia and adopt a novel two step empirical strategy first we apply regime switching methods to two simple indices of central bank exchange rate policy this generates likelihoods of high and low intervention in the second step we establish the variables that determine these probabilities we find strong evidence that the economy s balance sheet and economic performance determine the likelihood of switching in the exchange rate regime specifically an increase in reserve currency debt relative to assets raises potential capital losses from devaluation and reduces the probability of switching to a low intervention regime as does a decline in growth the purpose here is not to present an alternative regime classification levy yeyati e sturzenegger s 2005 classifying exchange rate regimes deeds vs words european economic review 49 1603 1635 reinhart c m rogoff k 2004 the modern history of exchange rate arrangements a reinterpretation quarterly journal of economics available at http www puaf umd edu faculty papers reinhart papers htm but to establish the relative importance of different constraints on the central bank which has policy implications the empirical approach and specification is flexible to whether intervention is discrete or gradual and to whether or not the central bank sterilizes

five facts about prices a reevaluation of menu cost models are price decreases 3 the frequency of price increases covaries strongly with inflation whereas the frequency of price decreases and the size of price increases and price decreases do not 4 the frequency of price change is highly seasonal it is highest in the first quarter and then declines 5 we find no evidence of upwardsloping hazard functions of price changes for individual products we show that the first second and third facts are consistent with a benchmark menu cost model whereas the fourth and fifth facts are not

rational inattention and organizational focus this paper studies optimal communication flows in organizations a production process can be coordinated ex ante by letting agents stick to a prespecified plan of action alternatively agents may adapt to task specific shocks in which case tasks must be coordinated ex post using communication when attention is scarce an optimal organization coordinates only a few tasks ex post those tasks are higher performing more adaptive to the environment and influential hence scarce attention requires setting priorities not just local optimization our results provide microfoundations for a central idea in the management literature that firms should focus on a limited set of core competencies

a model of financial structure and financial fragility this paper presents an asymmetric information model of financial structure the model has two types of financial institutions banks and securities markets both of which can hold loans made to firms to finance investment projects the securities markets have lower costs but they have a lemons problem because the banks have better information the result is an equilibrium that can exhibit fragility in the sense that small parameter changes such as changes in the cost advantage of the securities market or the risk structure of loans can lead to discontinuous changes in interest rates asset prices and market structure

engendering macroeconomics a reconsideration of growth theory abstract macroeconomics is gender biased because of its neglect of the reproductive sector this neglect is formalized in the assumptions supporting most macroeconomic models that population and the mapping from population to the labor force are determined exogenously the use of these assumptions is demonstrated for the case of the aggregate growth models which have evolved from harrod s original contribution in addition the development growth literature is shown to harbor a similar neglect some suggestions are made as to how these assumptions might be relaxed and some elements of a consequent theory and data project outlined

durable goods monopoly with limited choice of commitment strategy when should the monopolist precommit consider a firm a monopolist offering a unique product to a fixed number of potential customers suppose that no consumer desires more than one unit of the good within a given period or across periods that is there is no value to repeat purchases in addition suppose that customers vary with respect to their initial reservation prices which decline over time a natural interpretation is that the monopolist is selling a good that is durable alternatively the firm is providing an entertainment or fashion good consumers may place a premium on obtaining the product quickly before it becomes less useful less stylish or less novel coase 7 conjectured that this firm s ability to extract surplus is limited because the firm has to compete with itself across time periods high valuation customers would be unwilling to pay a high initial price because they would anticipate that over time the firm will be reducing the price in order to sell to lower valuation customers subsequent literature formalizes this as a time inconsistency problem faced by a monopolist unable to make intertemporal commitments a separate strand of the literature proceeds from the polar assumption that the monopolist can precommit to any multiperiod pricing strategy comparison to coase s monopolist is simple higher profits are obtainable under precommitment because more surplus is extracted from high valuation customers an important proposition due to stokey 22 is that it will be optimal for the monopolist to precommit to a declining intertemporal price schedule if consumers with higher initial valuations have a higher rate of time preference 2 otherwise the optimal strategy is to hold price constant at the static monopoly level and to sell no more than the static monopoly quantity 3

inequality and growth uncovering the main conclusions from the empirics abstractthis paper is a critical survey of the empirical literature on the effects of inequality on economic growth we conclude that it is most likely that the disparities found in the results are due to differences in the type of countries and time periods included in the samples the variable used to measure inequality the structure of the data and the estimation techniques these findings suggest that the mechanisms that link inequality to growth are likely to operate differently in different circumstances an element that may offer important guidelines for both policy makers and researchers

south south migration and discrimination against women in social institutions a two way relationship summary using the social institutions and gender index sigi from the oecd development centre this paper provides evidence on the two way relationship between discrimination against women in social institutions and south south migration on the one hand discriminatory social institutions in both origin and destination countries are an additional determinant of female migration on the other hand migration implies changes in discrimination against women according to the level of gender inequalities at destination specifically migration toward countries with low levels of discrimination promotes gender equality in social institutions at home while migration toward destinations with high levels of discrimination has the reverse effect

bad karma or discrimination male female wage gaps among salaried workers in india summary we use nationally representative data from the employment unemployment surveys in 1999 2000 and 2009 10 to explore gender wage gaps among regular wage salaried rws workers in india both at the mean as well as along the entire wage distribution to see what happens where the gender log wage gap at the mean is 55 in 1999 2000 and 49 in 2009 10 but this change is not statistically significant the blinder oaxaca and the machado mata melly decompositions indicate that in both years the bulk of the gender wage gap is unexplained i e possibly discriminatory they also reveal that over the decade while the wage earning characteristics of women improved relative to men the discriminatory component of the gender wage gap also increased in fact in 2009 10 if women were paid like men they would have earned more than men on account of their characteristics in both years we see the existence of the sticky floor in that gender wage gaps are higher among low wage earners and lower for high wage earners over the ten year period we find that the sticky floor became stickier for rws women machado mata melly decompositions reveal that in both years women at the lower end of the wage distribution face higher discriminatory gaps compared to women at the upper end

lessons from the asian crisis abstract this paper provides an asymmetric information analysis of the recent east asian crisis it then outlines several lessons from this crisis first there is a strong rationale for an international lender of last resort second without appropriate conditionality for this lending the moral hazard created by operation of an international lender of last resort can promote financial instability third although capital flows did contribute to the crisis they are a symptom rather than an underlying cause of the crisis suggesting exchange controls are unlikely to be a useful strategy to avoid future crises fourth pegged exchange rate regimes are a dangerous strategy for emerging market countries and make financial crises more likely

a theory of channel price promotions manufacturers can stimulate sales by a temporary wholesale price reduction for the retailer a rebate directed toward consumers or a combination of both the trade offs between these price promotions are analyzed providing insights about their roles profitability and welfare properties retailers rebates are also studied while price discrimination is a common explanation for rebates to consumers when a product is sold through a distribution channel the manufacturer may also use rebates to motivate retail participation in the promotion this explains why rebates may be offered even when all consumers use them and price discrimination does not occur copyright 1991 by american economic association

the outputs of retail activities french evidence a new economic framework is applied to the empirical analysis of retail margins this framework is founded on the definition of profits and incorporates recent theoretical developments formalizing the role of distribution services as outputs of retail activities the main results are the measures of outputs of retail activities identified in the data perform as important and robust determinants of retail margins variables that purport to capture the oligopolistic features of market structure have little association with the variation in retail margins hypotheses of price setting and quantity setting under the assumptions of profit maximization and monopolistic competition are categorically rejected by the data the data base is information on 50 retail sectors from the 1982 survey of firms in commerce and the 1983 survey of firms in services reported by insee

feminization of the labor force the effects of long term development and structural adjustment abstract using crosscountry data pooled for 1985 and 1990 we analyze the relationship between women s share of the labor force and the processes of long term economic development and macroeconomic changes associated with structural adjustment we find that the relationship between long term development and women s share of the labor force is u shaped controlling for the feminization u we also find that structural adjustment policies have led to an increase in feminization of the labor force via worsening income distribution and increased openness

inventories and the automobile market this article studies the within model year pricing production and inventory management of new automobiles using new monthly data on u s transaction prices we document that for the typical vehicle prices fall over the model year at a 9 0 annual rate concurrently both sales and inventories are hump shaped to explain these time series we formulate an industry model for new automobiles in which inventory and pricing decisions are made simultaneously the model predicts that automakers build to stock inventory management policy substantially influences the time series of prices and sales accounting for four tenths of the price decline observed over the model year

why are products sold on sale explanations of pricing regularities this paper reports on interesting changes in markdown pricing practices over time and differences in the pricing within a product line the price discrimination and the uncertainty hypotheses appear to better explain the data than the peak load hypothesis fashion has become more important over time and appears to explain the greater seasonal variation in retail apparel prices in recent years differences in uncertainty also explains differences in the pricing of different types of men s dress shirts

periodic pricing of seasonal products in retailing this paper studies intertemporal pricing policies when selling seasonal products in retail stores we first present a continuous time model where a seller faces a stochastic arrival of customers with different valuations of the product for this model we characterize the optimal pricing policies as functions of time and inventory we use this model as a benchmark against which we compare more realistic models that consider periodic pricing reviews we show that the structure of the optimal pricing policies in this case is consistent with the procedures observed in practice retail stores successively discount the product during the season and promote a liquidation sale at the end of the planning horizon we also show that the loss experienced when implementing periodic pricing reviews instead of continuous policies is small when the appropriate number of reviews is chosen several interesting economic insights emerge from our analysis for example uncertainty in the demand for new products leads to higher prices larger discounts and more unsold inventory finally we study the effect of announced discount policies on prices and profits we show that stores that have adopted this type of strategy usually set prices such that with high probability the merchandise is sold during the first periods and the largest discounts rarely take place

restoring banking stability beyond supervised capital requirements emerging economies have been particularly prone to financial sector crises reflecting marked information asymmetries and political interference as well as the substantial volatility in underlying economic conditions and the vulnerability of banking and finance when structural economic changes create a new and uncharted operating environment the standard regulatory paradigm relies mainly on supervised capital adequacy but it may not be enough other measures to improve the incentive structure for bankers regulators and other market participants could effectively increase the number of concerned skilled and watchful eyes intermittent application of supplementary blunt instruments could also be useful

demand dynamics in the seasonal goods industry an empirical analysis this study develops and estimates a dynamic model of consumer choice behavior in markets for seasonal goods where products are sold over a finite season and availability is limited in these markets retailers often use dynamic markdown policies in which an initial retail price is announced at the beginning of the season and the price is subsequently marked down as the season progresses strategic consumers face a trade off between purchasing early in the season when prices are higher but goods are available and purchasing later when prices are lower but the stockout risk is higher if the good starts providing utility as soon as it is purchased e g apparel consumers purchasing earlier in the season can also get more use from the product compared to those purchasing later our structural model incorporates three features essential for modeling the demand for seasonal goods changing prices limited availability and possible dependence of total consumption utility on the time of purchase in this model heterogeneous consumers have expectations about future prices and product availability and they strategically time their purchases we estimate the model using aggregate sales and inventory data from a fashion goods retailer the results indicate that in the fashion goods context ignoring consumers expectations about future availability or the change in total consumption utility over the season can lead to biased demand estimates we find that strategic consumers delay their purchases to take advantage of markdowns and that these strategic delays hurt the retailer s revenues retailer revenues facing strategic consumers are 9 lower than they would have been facing myopic consumers limited availability on the other hand reduces the extent of strategic delays by motivating consumers to purchase earlier we find that the impact of strategic delays on retailer revenues would have been as high as 35 if there were no stockout risk by means of counterfactual experiments we show that the highest retailer profits are achieved by offering small markdowns early in the season on the other hand given current markdown percentages the retailer can improve profits by carrying less stock as consumers accelerate purchases and purchase at higher prices when they anticipate scarcity in future periods as long as the reduction in availability is not great the profit gain from earlier higher priced sales can overcome the loss resulting from the reduction in overall sales

financial development financial liberalization and social capital abstractthe relationship between financial liberalization policies and financial development is controversial the impact of these policies differs greatly across countries in the literature the quality of formal institutions has been identified as an important source of this heterogeneity as countries with a weak institutional environment generally fail to benefit from financial liberalization using panel data covering 82 countries for the period 1973 2008 we find evidence that social capital may substitute for formal institutions as a prerequisite for effective financial liberalization policies in particular we find that during the post washington consensus period countries with a high prevailing level of social capital can ensure that financial liberalization positively influences financial development despite the poor quality of their formal institutions

work and empowerment women and agriculture in south india this article explores the implications of women s work in agriculture in telangana a region in the state of andhra pradesh india i suggest that higher capital costs for cultivators post liberalisation increased the pressure to contain wage costs in a region where women form the majority of the agricultural wage labour force under such conditions when women perform both own cultivation as well as agricultural wage work in the fields of others they face pressure to restrict bargaining for higher wages contributing to a widening gender wage gap to the extent that wages shape intra household bargaining power the empowering effect of workforce participation for such women would thus be blunted from available nss data i provide some preliminary evidence in support of this argument

the impact of product substitution on retail merchandising abstract we analyze the impact of product substitution on two key aspects of retail merchandising order quantities and expected profits to perform this analysis we extend the basic news vendor model to include the possibility that a product with surplus inventory can be used as a substitute for out of stock products this extension requires a definition and an approximation for the resulting effective demand under substitution a service rate heuristic is developed to solve the extended problem the performance of this heuristic is evaluated using an upper bound generated by solving the associated lagrangian dual problem our analysis suggests that this heuristic provides a tractable and accurate method to determine order quantities and expected profits under substitution we apply this heuristic to examine how the level of demand uncertainty and correlation and the degree of substitution between products affect order quantities and expected profits under substitutable demand in addition we use the heuristic to better understand the mechanism by which substitution improves expected profits

on the relationship between inventory costs and variety benefits in retailassortments consider a category of product variants distinguished by some attribute such as color or flavor a retailer must construct an assortment for the category i e select a subset variants to stock and determine purchase quantities for each offered variant we analyze this problem using a multinomial logit model to describe the consumer choice process and a newsboy model to represent the retailer s inventory cost we show that the optimal assortment has a simple structure and provide insights on how various factors affect the optimal level of assortment variety we also develop a formal definition of the level of fashion in a category using the theory of majorization and examine its implications for category profits

yesterday s bad times are today s good old times retail price changes are more frequent today than in the 1890s this paper documents differences in the nominal rigidity of retail prices across two 28 month periods 1889 91 and 1997 99 the most striking finding is that prices changed much less frequently in 1889 91 in the late 1800s when price changes did occur they were smaller on average and more narrowly distributed with fewer small or large price changes further price changes were more permanent 100 plus years ago these differences are consistent with a high occurrence of temporary price shocks and a higher cost of changing prices in 1889 91 than in 1997 99

learning forgetting and sales sellers of almost any product or service rarely keep their prices constant through time and frequently offer price discounts or sales this paper investigates an explanation of sales as a way for uninformed consumers to be willing to experience the product and learn about its fit and where informed consumers may forget about or change their preferences we investigate the role of the rate of consumer forgetting on the timing between sales and of the rate of consumer learning and menu costs on the length of a sale the rate of consumer forgetting can be linked to the length of purchase cycle and the level of consumer involvement we show that the discount frequency and the discount depth are increasing in the rate of consumer forgetting and that the discount frequency is increasing in the learning rate the duration of a sale is increasing in the rate of consumer forgetting and the rate of consumer learning

unemployment and the real wage the economic basis for contesting political ideologies using the keynesian theory of effective demand this paper demonstrates how particular models such as that of cooperative capitalism enunciated by the left keynesian social democrats the marxian model of profit squeeze emphasizing distributive conflict and even the conservative model relying on supply side stimulus fit in as particular variants of a more general theoretical scheme through a reconstruction of the familiar is schedule the argument is weaved around the theme of the relations between unemployment and real wage in the context of both a closed and an open economy to explain the common macroeconomic basis of contesting ideologies copyright 1990 by oxford university press

macroeconomic consequences of cyclical and secular changes in feminization an experiment at gendered macromodeling abstract this paper analyzes the macroeconomic implications of cyclical and secular movements in the feminization of the labor force and changes in the intensity of female household labor we assume that a rise in the feminization of the labor force stimulates investment while a rise in the intensity of female household labor raises savings we examine the interaction of these two effects in the context of a dynamic keynesian growth cycle model and assess the likelihood of a structurally adjusting economy experiencing a recovery through feminization our analysis shows that for a gender based recovery to succeed the impact of feminization of the labor force on investment must be stronger than the impact a rising intensity of female household labor has on savings our analysis shows that high and high middleincome countries are more likely to benefit from feminization processes

consumer rationing and the posssibility of intertemporal price discrimination abstract intertemporal price discrimination is explained from consumer rationing if some consumers who have a low valuation for a good are served first at low prices high valuation consumers buy at a high price although they rationally foresee future price drops price discrimination then yields more profits to a monopolist than a uniform pricing strategy

the elusive costs of inflation price dispersion during the u s great inflation a key policy question is how high an inflation rate should central banks target this depends crucially on the costs of inflation an important concern is that high inflation will lead to inefficient price dispersion workhorse new keynesian models imply that this cost of inflation is very large an increase in steady state inflation from 0 to 10 yields a welfare loss that is an order of magnitude greater than the welfare loss from business cycle fluctuations in output in these models we assess this prediction empirically using a new data set on price behavior during the great inflation of the late 1970s and early 1980s in the united states if price dispersion increases rapidly with inflation we should see the absolute size of price changes increasing with inflation price changes should become larger as prices drift further from their optimal level at higher inflation rates we find no evidence that the absolute size of price changes rose during the great inflation this suggests that the standard new keynesian analysis of the welfare costs of inflation is wrong and its implications for the optimal inflation rate need to be reassessed we also find that nonsale prices have not become more flexible over the past 40 years

secular changes in the gender composition of employment and growth dynamics in the north and the south abstract in a simple theoretical exercise the paper shows that gender relations matter in the standard analysis of trade liberalization and economic growth it utilizes a model with the two differential equations phase diagram technique which enables us to examine the cumulative interaction between economic growth and changes in the female share of employment the model shows that changes in the gender composition of employment caused by a new global division of labor between the north and the south can thwart the economic benefits customarily associated with trade liberalization in both regions

distributive politics and economic growth a crude distinction between economics and politics would be that economics is concerned with expanding the pie while politics is about distributing it in this paper we analyze the relationship between the two we focus on how an economy s initial configuration of resources shapes the political struggle for income and wealth distribution and how that in turn affects long run growth our main conclusion is that inequality is conducive to the adoption of growth retarding policies we derive this result from a simple political economy model of growth and present cross country evidence consistent with it the key feature of our model is that individuals differ in their relative factor endowments we distinguish between two types of factors an accumulated factor called capital and a nonaccumulated factor called labor growth is driven by the expansion of the capital stock which is in turn determined by individual saving decisions long run growth is endogenous as the aggregate production function is taken to be linearly homogeneous in capital and productive government services taken together the provision of government services is financed by a tax on capital because government services are productive a small tax on

the sources of asian pacific economic growth the objective of this study is to analyze the sources of economic growth of ten asian pacific countries apcs china hong kong indonesia japan malaysia the philippines singapore south korea taiwan and thailand in conjunction with four industrialized western countries iwcs france west germany united kingdom and the united states in the postwar period in previous studies boskin and lau 1990 and kim and lau 1994c find for the group of five g 5 and the east asian newly industrialized countries nics respectively that 1 all countries share the same aggregate metaproduction function in terms of efficiency equivalent units and 2 technical progress can be represented in all countries as purely capitalaugmenting however kim and lau 1994c also find that there has been no measured technical progress in the east asian nics despite their much higher rates of economic growth the questions of interest in this study are 1 does the same aggregate meta production function that applies to the g5 countries and the east asian nics also apply to other apcs 2 does the finding of absence of technical progress hold for all the other apcs except japan and 3 what is the relative importance of the different sources of economic growth for the apcs

dynamic pricing in the presence of inventory considerations research overview current practices and future directions the benefits of dynamic pricing methods have long been known in industries such as airlines hotels and electric utilities where the capacity is fixed in the short term and perishable in recent years there has been an increasing adoption of dynamic pricing policies in retail and other industries where the sellers have the ability to store inventory three factors contributed to this phenomenon 1 the increased availability of demand data 2 the ease of changing prices due to new technologies and 3 the availability of decision support tools for analyzing demand data and for dynamic pricing this paper constitutes a review of the literature and current practices in dynamic pricing given its applicability in most markets and its increasing adoption in practice our focus is on dynamic intertemporal pricing in the presence of inventory considerations

dollarization exchange rate regimes and government quality abstract the dollarization of the domestic banking system represents a source of vulnerability for emerging market countries and a debate has emerged over whether the exchange rate regime has an impact on dollarization this paper argues that the regime is far less important than the literature has previously claimed unofficial dollarization results from a lack of faith in the domestic currency which ultimately stems from the belief that the government will not follow policies that promote long run currency stability empirical results indicate that improved government quality reduces unofficial dollarization while the exchange rate regime plays no direct role in promoting dollarization

predicting bank performance with financial forecasts a case of taiwan commercial banks abstract data envelopment analysis dea has been used as a tool for evaluating past accomplishments in the banking industry however due to a time lag the results usually arrive too late for the evaluated banking institutions to react timely this paper makes advanced predictions of the performances of 24 commercial banks in taiwan based on their financial forecasts the forecasts based on uncertain financial data are represented in ranges instead of as single values a dea model for interval data is formulated to predict the efficiency the predictions of the efficiency scores are also presented as ranges we found that all the efficiency scores calculated from the data contained in the financial statements published afterwards fall within the corresponding predicted ranges of the efficiency scores which we had calculated from the financial forecasts the results also show that even the bad performances of the two banks taken over by the financial restructuring fund of taiwan could actually be predicted in advance using this study

dynamic pricing and ordering decisions by a monopolist this paper considers the relationship between pricing and ordering decisions for a monopolistic retailer facing a known demand function where over the inventory cycle the product may exhibit i physical decay or deterioration of inventory called wastage and ii decrease in market value called value drop associated with each unit of inventory on hand the retailer is allowed to continuously vary the selling price of the product over the cycle we introduce a notion of instantaneous margin and use it to derive profit maximizing conditions for the retailer the model explains the markdown of retail goods subject to decay it also provides guidance in determining when price changes during the cycle are worthwhile due to product aging how often such changes should be made and how such changes affect ordering intervals and quantities