delegating climate policy to a supranational authority a theoretical assessment abstract this paper studies the delegation of climate policy to a supranational environmental authority we develop a simple model of a world consisting of a large number of countries which derive utility from energy consumption countries suffer from global warming and local air pollution both caused by the combustion of fossil fuels and decide individually on investments in clean technologies for energy production a supranational environmental authority decides for each country on the maximally permitted amount of greenhouse gas emissions we demonstrate that the authority faces a dynamic inconsistency problem that leads to welfare losses but these losses can be kept small if the authority is endowed with an optimally designed mandate the optimal mandate penalizes the cost of local air pollution very heavily relative to the cost of global warming however delegation of climate policy faces a further difficulty as countries have a recurrent incentive to change the authority s mandate over time

monetary policy inclinations we examine whether central banks should complement their inflation forecasts with interest rate projections introducing a central bank loss function that accounts for deviations from announcements we incorporate the publication of policy inclinations into a dynamic monetary model we show that in the presence of cost push shocks the publication of interest rate forecasts tends to improve welfare

how forward looking is optimal monetary policy we calculate optimal monetary policy rules for several variants of a simple optimizing model of the monetary transmission mechanism with sticky prices and or wages we show that robustly optimal rules can be represented by interest rate feedback rules that generalize the celebrated proposal of taylor 1993 optimal rules however require that the current interest rate operating target depend positively on the recent past level of the operating target and its recent rate of increase in a way that is characteristic of estimated central bank reaction functions but not of taylor s proposal we furthermore find that a robustly optimal policy rule is almost inevitably an implicit rule that requires the central bank to use a structural model to project the economy s evolution under the contemplated policy action however calibrated examples suggest that optimal rules place less weight on projections of inflation or output many quarters in the future than do rules often discussed in the literature on inflation targeting or in the current practice of inflation forecast targeting central banks

reconciling bagehot and the fed s response to september 11 bagehot 1873 states that to prevent bank panics a central bank should provide liquidity at a very high rate of interest in contrast most of the theoretical literature on liquidity provision suggests that central banks should lend at an interest rate of zero this is broadly consistent with the federal reserve s behavior in the days following september 11 2001 this paper shows that both policies can be reconciled with commodity money as in bagehot s time liquidity is scarce and a high price allows banks to self select in contrast the fed has a virtually unlimited ability to temporarily expand the money supply so self selection is unnecessary

default premiums in commodity markets theory and evidence we model the effect of nonperformance risk on forward and futures pricing and look for evidence of nonperformance risk in precious metals futures prices from the hunt brothers episode changes in default premiums are measured and related to the sequence of events in the metals markets during this period results suggest first that ex ante costs of nonperformance can be a significant priced factor in commodity markets and second that the arrival of new information is often associated with changes in these costs the evidence has implications for both theoretical and empirical research on commodity markets organized commodity markets offer traders an efficient medium in which to execute their hedging and speculative strategies in particular the markets have developed mechanisms that reduce the costs of nonperformance which would be substantial in the absence of an organized exchange devices such as margin requirements position limits daily marking to market price limit moves and the clearinghouse reduce the expected costs of distress and default in commodity markets while organized exchanges greatly reduce expected costs of nonperformance they do not eliminate such costs throughout the history of organized futures trading there have been many instances of markets collapsing or coming to the brink of collapse after a period of unusual trading activity the most prominent example in recent times is the near collapse of the new

effect of distance of transportation on willingness to pay for food abstract consumers interest in locally produced foods is increasing hence there is a need to decipher and quantify consumers desire for local foods and understand the underlying causes of this demand more specifically we examine in this paper the issue of distance of transportation and its impact on consumer preferences we investigate how consumers willingness to pay wtp for food varies with the distance the food traveled results from non hypothetical second price auctions indicate that average wtp is falling in distance traveled indicating a preference for local production results also indicate that the marginal value of a mile traveled depends on the type of food studied apples vs wine socio demographic characteristics perceptions of freshness taste and food safety as well as support of local economy impact wtp for local foods

the non optimality of proposed monetary policy rules under timeless perspective commitment abstract in a near canonical forward looking model the timeless perspective form of commitment typically provides outcomes that are on average superior to those resulting from discretion the specific condition that appears in the literature is however not optimal from the relevant perspective

payments settlement tiering in private and public systems what are the benefits provided by a payment system what are the trade offs in public versus private payment systems and in restricted versus open payments arrangements modern payment systems encompass a variety of institutional designs with varying degrees of counterparty protection we develop a framework that allows for an examination and comparison of payment systems and specification of conditions leading to their adoption we relate these conditions to the design of present large value payment systems fedwire chips target etc

discretionary policy and multiple equilibria in lq re models we study discretionary equilibria in dynamic linear quadratic rational expectations models in contrast to the assumptions that pervade this literature we show that these models do have multiple equilibria in some situations we demonstrate the existence of multiple discretionary equilibria by example we investigate general properties of discretionary equilibria and discuss implications for numerical algorithms

how should consumers willingness to pay be measured an empirical comparison of state of the art approaches abstract this study compares the performance of four commonly used approaches to measure consumers willingness to pay with real purchase data real the open ended oe question format choice based conjoint cbc analysis becker degroot and marschak s bdm incentive compatible mechanism and incentive aligned choice based conjoint icbc analysis with this five in one approach the authors test the relative strengths of the four measurement methods using real as the benchmark on the basis of statistical criteria and decision relevant metrics the results indicate that the bdm and icbc approaches can pass statistical and decision oriented tests the authors find that respondents are more price sensitive in incentive aligned settings than in non incentive aligned settings and the real setting furthermore they find a large number of none choices under icbc than under hypothetical conjoint analysis this study uncovers an intriguing possibility even when the oe format and cbc analysis generate

cooperation through imitation and exclusion in networks we develop a simple model to study the coevolution of interaction structures and action choices in prisoners dilemma games agents are boundedly rational and choose both actions and interaction partners via payoff biased imitation the dynamics of imitation and exclusion yields polymorphic outcomes under a wide range of parameters whenever agents hold some information beyond their interaction neighbors defectors and cooperators always coexist in disconnected components otherwise polymorphic networks can emerge with a center of cooperators and a periphery of defectors any stochastically stable state has at most two disconnected components simulations confirm our analytical results and show that the share of cooperators increases with the speed at which the network evolves increases with the radius of interaction and decreases with the radius of information

clearing and settlement during the crash this article is a reexamination of the clearing and settlement process in financial markets particularly the futures market and its performance during the 1987 stock market crash it provides both some institutional background and some conceptual perspective on the problems faced by the system during the week of october 19 much of the discussion is based on the useful analogies that can be drawn between the clearing house and other financial intermediaries such as banks and insurance companies a major conclusion is that the federal reserve played a vital rob in protecting the integrity of the clearing and settlements system during the crash

distinguished lecture on economics in government central banking and systemic risks in capital markets on several occasions since 1970 the federal reserve has intervened to help prevent or delay the failure of a large individual commercial bank it has typically not played a similar role with respect to smaller banks moreover in three instances the federal reserve has intervened to rescue capital market institutions other than banks these actions have been criticized as inconsistent with the responsibilities of a central bank which have traditionally been defined to include the maintenance of the monetary base gold currency or bank reserves and control over the growth rate of the money supply the central bank has also been perceived as the ultimate source of liquidity for the financial system as a whole thus in time of financial crises the central bank was to be the lender of last resort it should lend generously to other banks faced with a sudden public demand for liquidity although it should provide funds at a penalty interest rate this traditional view of the central bank s last resort lending function is primarily the product of 19th century thinking in great britain the term lender of last resort was apparently first used by sir francis baring 1797 when he referred to the bank of england as the dernier resort the source of liquidity for all banks in a period of crises the first full treatment of the idea was provided by henry thornton in testimony before parliament and in public speeches but his comprehensive exposition of the last resort lending function appeared in 1802 however when the subject arises among economists the name that comes to mind most readily is that of walter bagehot his definitive analysis and recommendations were presented in 1873 in lombard street

economic cosmology and the evolutionary challenge abstract the intellectual histories of economics and evolutionary biology are closely intertwined because both subjects deal with living complex evolving systems because the subject matter is similar contemporary evolutionary thought has much to offer to economics in recent decades theoretical biology has progressed faster than economics in understanding phenomena like hierarchical processes cooperative behavior and selection processes in evolutionary change this paper discusses three very old cosmologies in western thought how these play out in economic theory and how evolutionary biology can help evaluate their validity and policy relevance these cosmologies are 1 natural man as a rational self sufficient egotistical individual 2 competition among individuals can lead to a well functioning society and 3 there exists an ideal optimal state of nature these correspond to colander et al 2004 holy trinity of orthodox economics rationality greed and equilibrium it is argued below that current breakthroughs in evolutionary biology and neuroscience can help economics go beyond these simple cosmologies

does local labeling complement or compete with other sustainable labels a conjoint analysis of direct and joint values for fresh produce claim as a way to explore the increasing use of sustainability labels in the marketplace this study analyzes the differential values and interactive effects of sustainable production claims organic fair trade and carbon footprint and location claims through a conjoint choice experiment included in a 2008 u s survey locally grown is the highest valued claim and its value is further enhanced with fair trade certification but carbon intensive local products are discounted more severely than those sourced from other locations some negatively valued claims imports and carbon footprint can be mitigated by combining them with other claims organic and fair trade copyright 2011 oxford university press

changes in uk monetary policy rules and discretion in practice abstract in october 1992 following sterling s departure from the exchange rate mechanism britain adopted a new framework for monetary policy that comprised two components first an explicit target for inflation and second institutional changes designed to give greater influence to the bank of england by increasing the transparency and openness of the process by which interest rates are set this paper analyses those changes from the perspective of the debate on rules versus discretion and argues that an appropriate design of institutional arrangements can provide incentives for central bankers to pursue the first best state contingent monetary policy

speed limit policies the output gap and optimal monetary policy in a standard new keynesian model a myopic central bank concerned with stabilizing inflation and changes in the output gap will implement a policy under discretion that replicates the optimal timeless perspective precommitment policy by stabilizing output gap changes the central bank imparts inertia into output and inflation that is absent under pure discretion even a fully optimizing i e non myopic central bank operating in a discretionary policy environment achieves better social outcomes if it focuses on inflation and changes in the output gap than are achieved under inflation targeting this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

pitfalls of forward looking monetary policy a distinctive feature of the procedures recently adopted by inflation targeting central banks is their forward looking character forecasts of the economy s future evolution conditional upon alternative policies play a central role in the banks deliberations to an extent that the procedures adopted are sometimes characterized as forecast targeting this emphasis upon the future consequences of policy is unsurprising in an approach that tries to maintain as transparent as possible a relation between the banks9 decisions and the ultimate goals of monetary policy after all current decisions can still affect the future but not the past nonetheless common descriptions of how inflation targeting is or should be practiced go too far in proposing purely forward looking procedures i shall argue instead that an optimal framework for the conduct of monetary policy must generally be history dependent in ways

inflation targeting and exchange rate pass through this paper analyzes how endogenous imperfect exchange rate pass through affects inflation targeting optimal monetary policies in a new keynesian small open economy the paper shows that an inverse relation exists between the pass through and the insulation of the economy from foreign and monetary policy shocks and that imperfect pass through tends to decrease the variability of the terms of trade furthermore with cpi inflation targeting in the short run delayed pass through constrains monetary policy more than incomplete pass through and interest rate smoothing amplifies this effect when the pass through decreases the variability in economic activity tends to rise and the trade off between the stabilization of cpi inflation and output worsens in direct relation to how strictly the central bank is targeting cpi inflation in contrast with domestic inflation targeting optimal monetary policy is not constrained and opposite results occur consequently imperfect pass through favors the choice of domestic to cpi inflation targeting

the effect of changes in the federal funds rate target on market interest rates in the 1970s abstract this paper examines the influence of monetary policy on interest rates by estimating the effect of changes in the federal funds rate target the federal reserve s policy instrument on market interest rates in the 1970s we find that changes in the target caused large movements in short term rates and smaller but significant movements in intermediate and long term rates we hypothesize that the similarity of the reactions of three six and twelve month rates to changes in the target offers a possible explanation for the lack of support for the expectations theory from studies that have tested the theory using these rates

inflation forecasts and monetary policy proposals for inflation targeting as a strategy for monetary policy leave open the important operational question of how to determine whether current policies are consistent with the long run inflation target an interesting possibility is that the central bank might target current private sector forecasts of inflation either those made explicitly by professional forecasters or those implicit in asset prices we address the issue of existence and uniqueness of rational expectations equilibria when the central bank uses private sector forecasts as a guide to policy actions in a dynamic model which incorporates both sluggish price adjustment and shocks to aggregate demand and aggregate supply we show that strict targeting of inflation forecasts is typically inconsistent with the existence of rational expectations equilibrium and that policies approximating strict inflation forecast targeting are likely to have undesirable properties we also show that economies with more general forecast based policy rules are particularly susceptible to indeterminacy of rational expectations equilibria we conclude that although private sector forecasts may contain information useful to the central bank ultimately the monetary authorities must rely on an explicit structural model of the economy to guide their policy decisions this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

do ecolabels cheapen wines abstract while some studies find that ecolabels might impose price penalties to wines several aspects remain unclear particularly if the mainstream consumers are in fact disliking ecolabeled wines if there exists a systematic difference between organic and sustainable wines or if the ecolabels purported negative correlation to prestige is robust in this study these questions are investigated with a choice experiment which estimates the consumption utility of the ecolabels and of the relevant interaction effects we find that consumers are willing to pay premiums for either organic or sustainable wines the premium is especially prevalent in the higher percentile of the willingness to pay distributions appellations of origin play a role the willingness to pays for the ecolabels are higher for wines from less prestigious regions but it diminishes for wines from higher prestige regions no eco penalty is detected at the mean level nor do the ecolabels penalize higher priced wines within the examined price range however a small segment of consumer dislikes the ecolabels lastly the preference correlates positively with the perception of quality implied by the ecolabels we recommend wineries that target mainstream consumers to pursue ecolabels

costly information and the evolution of self organization in a small complex economy abstract the core idea of evolution is that order in living systems emerges from a simple process of variation and selection in biological systems we usually understand the source of variation as best described by the mechanisms of genetics if human social systems are evolutionary systems however it would seem the variation that most explains the sources of change in these systems occurs not from a genetic mechanism but from individual learning we use an evolutionary computational methodology to explore the way individual learning and adaptation lead to the evolution of persistent self organized social and economic activity the basic idea behind these explorations is that the character and extent of self organizing social and economic activity depends upon the way the environment frames the costs of individual learning and adaptation we consider three different kinds of costs affecting learning and adaptation the costs of autonomous searching of communicating and of deciding individuals respond to these costs by carefully i e economically choosing to learn about and interact with familiar agents in familiar arenas in which they have relatively secure expectations about the outcome of their actions emerging from these choices are persistent relationships among agents that lead to social and economic structure and to the imperfect coordination of aggregate production the character and the extent of each are a function of the way the costs of information change with changing natural and human system conditions we use a learning classifier system lcs to model learning the logic of an lcs closely mimics the mechanisms of darwinian evolution but is applied to the evolution of an agent s decision rules we describe the environmental context necessary for an lcs to produce economizing behavior and apply the method to a multi agent simulation of the maine lobster fishery which we treat as a metaphor for competition based on the search for useful knowledge the structure and method of the model is similar to a conventional agent based model except we use lcs to evolve decision rules for each agent rather than supplying those rules ourselves this allows agents to change their behavior i e to learn and adapt as their environment changes modeling learning and adaptation as the source of behavioral variation makes it possible to use evolutionary theory to address important questions of social and economic emergence not possible with current methods

consumer sorting and hedonic valuation of wine attributes exploiting data from a field experiment this article uses a novel experimental approach to measure consumer willingness to pay wtp for wine attributes we invited customers of a local supermarket who had selected a bottle of wine to purchase to participate in a valuation experiment integrating their original wine choice into the experiment each participant evaluated six alternative wines generating a rich set of data on willingness to pay and consumer characteristics the data from the experiment allow us to compare standard shelf price based wine attribute valuation estimates with estimates using wtp data and an increasing amount of information about individual consumers the full model employs individual fixed effects to estimate wtp parameters without bias from consumer sorting or supply side influences our wtp estimates for wine attributes differ markedly from previous attribute value estimates consumers in our sample display clear and stable preferences for wine varieties but less clear preferences for appellations our results suggest caution is needed in using market prices to estimate parameters of the consumer valuation function for product attributes

search limited participation and monetary policy a model is developed that employs recent developments in the literature on search models of money to capture the distributional effects of monetary policy in a tractable way deterministic and stochastic versions of the model are studied money is not neutral and these nonneutralities persist whether or not the change in the money supply is anticipated or unanticipated at the optimum monetary policy is geared to correcting distortions in the search sector of the economy while correcting for the persistent effects of past monetary policy actions there is no consensus among macroeconomists concerning the role of monetary policy in the short run however an influential idea is that limited participation in financial markets is an important mechanism behind the short run macroeconomic effects of central bank actions that is there is a component of economic activity that is centralized and interconnected this economic activity involves financial transactions among banks and other financial intermediaries and the agents who hold the assets and liabilities of these financial intermediaries when the central bank injects outside money into the economy or withdraws it the economic agents who are immediately affected by the monetary injection or withdrawal are the participants in these centralized transactions other economic agents who are engaged in more decentralized and less interconnected transactions will not be affected directly by the first round effects of central bank actions thus there will be a distributional effect of monetary injections and withdrawals as first captured in heterogeneous agent models by grossman and weiss 1983 and rotemberg 1984 this distributional effect will matter in interesting ways for the price level nominal interest rates aggregate output foreign exchange rates and the distribution of consumption across the population the grossman weiss and rotemberg models are not analytically tractable because of the difficulty in tracking the distribution of wealth over time however lucas 1990 fuerst 1992 and alvarez and atkeson 1997 among others

rethinking new wines implications of local and environmentally friendly labels abstract new wine production areas around the world are encountering challenges in creating a reputation for high quality products in order to help these new wine growing areas numerous labeling programs claiming local origin and environmentally friendly practices are being implemented in this study consumer response toward wine grown in a new production area such as colorado is researched using an interval probit model the mean willingness to pay wtp for colorado environmentally friendly and colorado regular wines are calculated in summary the results in this paper highlight the need to improve quality perceptions to garner a premium in differentiated wine markets as a consequence environmentally friendly labeling in wine is an inefficient marketing tool for wines perceived as low quality

changes in business cycles evidence and explanations this paper shows that the volatility of annual real macroeconomic indicators for the united states and the average severity of recessions have declined only slightly between the pre world war i and post world war ii eras recessions have however become somewhat less frequent and more uniform it argues that the advent of macroeconomic policy after world war ii can account for both the observed continuity and change countercyclical monetary policy and automatic stabilizers have prolonged postwar expansions and prevented severe depressions at the same time policy induced booms and recessions have led to continued volatility of the postwar economy

the economics of organization the transaction cost approach the transaction cost approach to the study of economic organization regards the transaction as the basic unit of analysis and holds that an understanding of transaction cost economizing is central to the study of organizations applications of this approach require that transactions be dimensionalized and that alternative governance structures be described economizing is accomplished by assigning transactions to governance structures in a discriminating way the approach applies both to the determination of efficient boundaries as between firms and markets and to the organization of internal transactions including the design of employment relations the approach is compared and contrasted with selected parts of the organization theory literature

bad luck bad policy and learning a markov switching approach to understanding postwar u s macroeconomic dynamics abstract this paper evaluates the role of monetary policy in understanding the u s post war macroeconomic fluctuations we construct a medium size dsge model in which the central bank through a real time learning process can make mistakes in estimating key elasticities between macroeconomic aggregates and the central banks objectives may change over time the model also features time varying volatilities of non policy shocks we find that misperceptions of the persistence of inflation and the slope of the phillips curve could affect optimal monetary policy decision making therefore their accurate prediction is key for achieving successful monetary policy outcomes in addition we argue that the monetary policy shift geared toward inflation stabilization in the late 1970s changed the composition of output making the marginal efficiency of investment shock that proxies for the functioning of the financial sector the most important contributor to the business cycle

organic price premium or penalty a comparative market analysis of organic wines from tuscany abstract previous literature suggests that the price of wine is a function of its intrinsic and extrinsic attributes studies have examined the price of wines from various wine producing regions using the hedonic price model to determine the correlation between wine attributes and price however few studies have examined the relationship between organic production or certification and price this study uses a hedonic pricing model to examine the price premiums associated with organic production and organic certification for tuscan red wines produced between 2000 and 2008 in both the italian and american wine markets controlling for a variety of wine attributes the analysis finds that wines produced with organic practices but not certified as organic and wines certified but not labeled as organic receive a higher price compared to conventional wine for wines with low quality ratings however as the wine s quality rating increases the positive effects of organic practices and certification on price decrease and for wine with higher quality ratings organic practices and certification is associated with lower prices relative to otherwise comparable conventional wines

systemic illiquidity in the federal funds market this paper shows how the intra day allocation and pricing of overnight loans of federal funds reflect the decentralized inter bank market in which these loans are traded a wouldbe borrower or lender typically finds a counterparty institution by direct bilateral contact once in contact say by telephone the two counterparties to a potential trade negotiate terms that reflect their incentives for borrowing or lending as well as the attractiveness of their respective options to forego a trade and to continue shopping around this overthe counter otc pricing and allocation mechanism is quite distinct from that of most centralized markets such as an electronic limit order book market in which every order is anonymously exposed to every other order with a centralized order crossing algorithm while there is a significant body of research on the micro structure of specialist and limit order book markets most otc markets do not have comprehensive transactionslevel data available for analysis the federal funds market is a rare exception we go beyond a previous study by craig furfine 1999 of the microstructure of the federal funds market by modeling how the likelihood of matching a particular borrower with banking studies federal reserve bank of new york 33 liberty street new york ny 10045 we are grateful for support and data from the federal reserve bank of new york and for comments from guillaume plantin jamie mcandrews craig furfine michael fleming and anonymous federal funds traders we have also benefited from comments by andrew metrick jeremy stein ken french larry harris owen lamont john taylor and randy westerfield the views expressed here are not necessarily those of the federal reserve bank of new york or the federal reserve system

do real balance effects invalidate the taylor principle in closed and open economies this paper examines the determinacy implications of forecast based monetary policy rules that set the interest rate in response to expected future inflation in a neo wicksellian model that incorporates real balance effects we show that the presence of such effects in closed economies restricts the ability of the taylor principle to prevent indeterminacy of the rational expectations equilibrium the problem is exacerbated in open economies particularly if the policy rule reacts to consumer price rather than domestic price inflation however determinacy can be restored in both closed and open economies with the addition of monetary policy inertia

efficient propagation of shocks and the optimal return on money abstract we study optimal allocations in an environment in which money is essential due to lack of commitment and anonymity of individuals because the economy features aggregate preference shocks we apply a notion of implementability that allows for allocations with non trivial business cycle dynamics for the propagation of shocks we show that history dependence is predicted by the theory of second best and becomes necessary for optimality when the degree of patience is neither too low nor too high our analysis concludes with a discussion of whether there is a role for the propagation of shocks in alternative economic environments

monetary policy and exchange rate interactions in a small open economy the transmission mechanisms of monetary policy in a small open economy like norway are analysed through structural vars with special emphasis on the interdependence between monetary policy and exchange rate movements by imposing a long run neutrality restriction on the real exchange rate thereby allowing the interest rate and the exchange rate to react simultaneously to news i find considerable interdependence between monetary policy and the exchange rate in particular following a contractionary monetary policy shock the real exchange rate immediately appreciates after which it gradually depreciates back to the baseline the results are found to be consistent with findings from an event study

the central banking role of clearinghouse associations most of this clearinghouse currency was illegal but no one thought of prosecuting or interfering with its issuers as practically all of it bore the words payable only through the clearing house its holders could not demand payment for it in cash in plain language it was an inconvertible paper money issued without the sanction of law yet necessitated by conditions for which our banking laws did not provide when banks were being run upon and legal money had disappeared in hoards in default of any legal means of relief it worked effectively and doubtlessly prevented multitudes of bankruptcies which otherwise would have occurred andrew 1908b p 516

euro area money demand and international portfolio allocation a contribution to assessing risks to price stability this chapter argues that a stable broad money demand for the euro area over the period 1980 2011 can be obtained by modelling cross border international portfolio allocation we first observe that in this first decade of the new millennium the breakdown of standard money demand specifications for the euro area and the strong developments in annual m3 growth coincide with large net flows in portfolio invest ment in the euro area we then estimate a new money demand which turns out to be stable by including variables explaining portfolio flows omitted in the traditional specifications

payment system settlement and bank incentives in this article we consider the relative merits of net versus gross settlement of interbank payments net settlement economizes on the costs of holding non interest bearing reserves but increases moral hazard problems the put option value of default under net settlement can also distort banks investment incentives absent these distortions net settlement dominates gross although the optimal net settlement scheme may involve a positive probability of default article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

optimal interest rate smoothing this paper considers the desirability of the observed tendency of central banks to adjust interest rates only gradually in response to changes in economic conditions it shows in the context of a simple model of optimizing private sector behaviour that assignment of an interest rate smoothing objective to the central bank may be desirable even when reduction of the magnitude of interest rate changes is not a social objective in itself this is because a response of policy to irrelevant lagged variables may be desirable owing to the way it steers private sector expectations of future policy

an optimizing is lm specification for monetary policy and business cycle analysis we ask whether relations of the is lm type can sensibly be used for the aggregate demand portion of a dynamic optimizing general equilibrium model intended for analysis of issues regarding monetary policy and cyclical fluctuations the main result is that only one change the addition of a term regarding expected future income is needed to make the is function match a fully optimizing model whereas no changes are needed for the lm function this modification leads to a dynamic forward looking model of aggregate demand that is tractable and usable with a wide variety of aggregate supply specifications theoretical applications concerning price level determinacy and gradual price adjustment are included

rediscounting under aggregate risk with moral hazard freeman 1999 proposes a model in which discount window lending and open market operations have different effects this is important because in most of the literature these policies are indistinguishable

effects of cheap talk on consumer willingness to pay for golden rice a large body of literature suggests willingness to pay is overstated in hypothetical valuation questions as compared to when actual payment is required recently cheap talk has been proposed to eliminate the potential bias in hypothetical valuation questions cheap talk refers to process of explaining hypothetical bias to individuals prior to asking a valuation question this study explores the effect of cheap talk in a mass mail survey using a conventional value elicitation technique results indicate that cheap talk was effective at reducing willingness to pay for most survey participants however consistent with previous research cheap talk did not reduce willingness to pay for knowledgeable consumers

optimal reputation building in the new keynesian model abstract we study the optimal committed monetary policy when the private sector has imperfect information and has to infer the central banker s ability to commit the optimal policy is designed to influence learning and improve the central banker s reputation of being committed the reputation building implies that when a committed central banker first takes office he should resist the temptation to stimulate output with initially high but declining inflation he should reverse a missed inflation target rather than accommodate it and he should adopt a less accommodative inflation response to a cost push shock than a full commitment solution suggests

payment transactions instruments and systems a survey the payments literature ranges from theoretical general equilibrium models to practical payment issues related to the day to day operation of various national networks for the transfer of money it is an area where economic theory and institutional structure are often closely intertwined and it is currently undergoing significant change shifting from costly paper based systems to technologically advanced electronic payments the extant literature is surveyed here with the aim of integrating the various strands of payment research which have been largely pursued separately in addition we present newly available data to illustrate and investigate a number of underdeveloped areas in this literature 1998 elsevier science b v all rights reserved

learning and fatigue effects revisited investigating the effects of accounting for unobservable preference and scale heterogeneity using multiple choice tasks per respondent in discrete choice experiment studies increases the amount of available information however respondents learning and fatigue may lead to changes in observed utility function preference taste parameters as well as the variance in its error term scale they need to be controlled to avoid potential bias a sizable body of empirical research offers mixed evidence in terms of whether these ordering effects are observed we point to a significant component in explaining these differences we show how accounting for unobservable preference and scale heterogeneity can influence the magnitude of observed ordering effects

consumers perceptions preferences and willingness to pay for wine with sustainability characteristics a review abstract the aim of this review article is to identify the state of the art and research gaps in consumer perceptions preferences and willingness to pay wtp towards wine with sustainability characteristics in an effort to cover all relevant literature we searched for scientific articles published between january 2000 and march 2016 the search resulted in 34 articles which were analysed in detail to assess the reviewed articles the alphabet theory which is a framework for explaining environmentally significant behaviour was used the review differentiates the results for consumers wine choice by the type of production method e g sustainable environmental friendly organic or local a considerable number of consumers across different countries had positive perceptions regarding these different production methods and reported a willingness to pay a premium for wine with characteristics of sustainable production however on average consumers awareness of the broad concept of sustainability regarding wine seemed low in some european countries and north america in particular organic and sustainability labels were often perceived as quality indicators in most cases the studies focused on the environmental aspects of sustainability environmental soundness was given most often as a determining factor in purchase decisions regarding wine with characteristics of sustainable production overall social and economic aspects were only just examined the results suggest that producing and marketing wine with sustainability characteristics is a promising strategy for quality differentiation particularly for wine that is both local and organic moreover marketers retailers and producers will likely profit from developing information campaigns with a focus on environmental as well as social and economic aspects to increase consumers knowledge of sustainable wine production thus creating preferences and influencing purchase behaviour gaining a deeper understanding of consumers attitudes and their buying motives regarding different sustainability attributes is recommended for future studies since none of the articles examined purchase behaviour in real market scenarios with real market transactions future research should focus for example on the analysis of household panel data as evidence of an attitude behaviour gap was found

incentive efficient risk sharing in a settlement mechanism abstract the purpose of this paper is to address a question concerning risk management in continuing multi party contractual clearing and settlement arrangements through which large value payments are typically made we are particularly interested in the issues of incentive compatibility when a third party possesses a private information concerning the riskiness of transfers being made if a third party possesses private information that would be of value in determining how best to settle a payment how does the exposure of that party to the settlement risk affect the quality of information that the party chooses to provide in this paper we address this question by analyzing a specific class of parametric environments of a schematic formal model of a settlement arrangement or a payment network

a margin scheme that advises on when to change required margin abstract the purpose of a margin requirement is to protect a clearinghouse from members defaults resulting from big losses due to adverse movement of futures prices to decide on how much a margin is required a clearinghouse may refer to a benchmark margin defined as a constant multiple of the forecasted volatility however a benchmark margin only advises on a desirable margin level it gives no advice on whether a clearinghouse should alter existing required margin this paper proposes a margin scheme that can advise on when to change the required margin and if a change is recommended to what level it should be changed the proposed margin scheme can be devised so that the coverage probability and change frequency are controlled at target levels deemed appropriate by the clearinghouse the proposed margin scheme needs a volatility forecast as input this paper shows that among a large number of volatility forecasts implied volatility gives the best results this confirms a conjecture that implied volatility may have more information content than other volatility forecasts as far as margin setting is concerned

on banking and intermediation abstract the purpose of this lecture is to develop a framework for the study of prudential regulation and to derive policy implications following a discussion of the practice of banking supervision and of the raison d etre of regulation the paper emphasizes the importance of capital adequacy and balance sheet adjustments to shocks affecting either individual banks or the banking sector as a whole the ideas are then applied to the policy debates on market value accounting and on the indexation of the capital requirements to the business cycle the paper concludes with political economy questions and with a discussion of the too big to fail problem

does the fed act gradually a var analysis abstract the tendency for changes in the federal funds rate to be implemented gradually has been considered evidence of an interest rate smoothing objective for the federal reserve this paper investigates whether gradual funds rate movements can be explained by the dynamic structure of the economy and the uncertainty surrounding that structure without recourse to including an ad hoc interest rate smoothing argument in the fed s objective function in the absence of parameter uncertainty the optimal policy involves more aggressive movements in the funds rate than observed parameter uncertainty however limits the responsiveness of the interest rate as a result the optimal policy under parameter uncertainty can account for a considerable portion of the gradualism observed

exploring environmental consciousness and consumer preferences for organic wines without sulfites abstract in recent years owing to increasing interest in health in relation for food quality consumer preference for organic products has gradually been moving from an elitist behavior to quite widespread consumption this trend is also apparent for the wine industry which has gradually been adopting organic production methods motivated by the increasing importance of consumer health protection this paper analyzes consumer interest in buying organic wines with no additives evaluating whether and to what extent consumers are willing to pay a higher price for organic wine with no added sulfites with the aim to gain detailed knowledge about issues related to consumer health an ordered logit model was used to investigate the probability of achieving a premium prices as a function of the socioeconomic characteristics of consumers and the product attributes results indicate that environmental consciousness and curiosity lead consumers to pay a higher price for these wines while naturalness and designation of origin are the attributes of organic wines positively related to the probability of paying a premium price for wine with no added sulfites the results also show that inappropriate information discourage consumers from paying a price differential for wine without sulfites the scientific value and originality of the paper include consumer perception of the health benefits of organic wines without additives the outcomes confirm that consumers who are sensitive to environmental and quality issues are willing to pay a premium for quality food and that wider information about wine with no added sulfites is required for effective price differentiation being sulfite addition to food is an issue of increasing relevance in the agro food sector this study analyzes for the first time the consumer preference for organic wines by considering how the presence of additives in wine affect the purchasing behavior of consumers

payment system disruptions and the federal reserve following september 11 2001 abstract the monetary and payment system consequences of the september 11 2001 terrorist attacks and the federal reserve s response are reviewed interbank payment disruptions appear to be a central feature of many us banking crises and interbank payment disruptions seem likely to recur federal reserve credit extension following september 11 succeeded in massively increasing the supply of banks balances to satisfy the disruption induced increase in demand and thereby ameliorate the effects of the shock relatively benign banking conditions helped make fed credit policy manageable an interbank payment disruption that coincided with less favorable banking conditions could be more difficult to manage given current daylight credit policies paying interest on reserves would facilitate improvements in daylight credit policy

evolution as a general theoretical framework for economics and public policy abstract economic and evolutionary thinking have been entwined throughout their histories but evolutionary theory does not function as a general theoretical framework for economics and public policy as it does for the biological sciences in this lead article for a special issue of the journal of economic behavior and organization we first describe how evolution functions as a general theoretical framework in the biological sciences then we consider four reasons why evolution might not need to be consulted for human related subjects such as economics and public policy we conclude that these reasons can be valid in particular cases but they fail for any sizeable human related subject area hence evolution can and should become a general theoretical framework for economics and public policy the other articles in the special issue help to substantiate this claim

competition among exchanges does competition among e nancial intermediaries lead to excessively low standards to examine this question we construct a model where intermediaries design contracts to attract trading volume taking into consideration that traders differ in credit quality and may default when credit quality is observable intermediaries demand the right amount of guarantees a monopolist would demand fewer guarantees private information about credit quality has an ambiguous effect in a competitive environment when the cost of default is large small private information leads to higher lower standards we exhibit examples where private information is present and competition produces higher standards than monopoly does i introduction in spite of the general acceptance of the competitive mechanism as an allocation scheme many observers consider e nancial intermediation an exception competition is thought to lead to a race to the bottom in which e nancial intermediaries settle for excessively low levels of contractual guarantees in an attempt to increase volume evaluating futures exchanges a joint report from the treasury and the federal reserve board written in the wake of the 1987 crash states that t here is sufe cient possibility that at some point sros self regulatory organizations might establish margins that were inconsistent enough to present market problems or set them at levels that might present potential costs to other parties that regulatory approval should be established in all markets 1

smoothed interest rate setting by central banks and staggered loan contracts i investigate a new source of economic stickiness namely staggered loan interest rate contracts under monopolistic competition this study introduces this mechanism into a standard new keynesian model simulations show that a response to a financial shock is greatly amplified by the staggered loan contracts although a response to a productivity cost push or monetary policy shock is not much affected i derive an approximated loss function and analyse optimal monetary policy unlike other models the function includes a quadratic loss of the first order difference in loan rates thus central banks have an incentive to smooth the policy rate

debt nonneutrality policy interactions and macroeconomic stability we study the consequences of non neutrality of government debt for macroeconomic stabilization policy in an environment where prices are sticky assuming transaction services of government bonds ricardian equivalence fails because public debt has a negative impact on its marginal rate of return and thus on private savings stability of equilibrium sequences requires a stationary evolution of real public debt which steers inflation expectations and rules out endogenous fluctuations under anti inflationary monetary policy regimes macroeconomic fluctuations tend to decrease with the share of tax financing which justifies tight debt constraints in particular a balanced budget policy stabilizes the economy under cost push shocks such that output and inflation variances can be lower than in a corresponding case where debt is neutral

delegating optimal monetary policy inertia abstract in a forward looking business cycle model central banks can achieve the timeless optimal commitment equilibrium even in the absence of a commitment technology if they are delegated with an objective function that is different from the societal one the paper develops a general linear quadratic method to solve for the optimal delegation parameters that generate the optimal amount of inertia in a markov perfect equilibrium and studies the optimal design of some policy regimes that are nested within this framework the squared optimal targeting rule inflation output gap growth and nominal income growth targeting and inflation and output gap contracts

monetary policy by committee consensus chairman dominance or simple majority this paper studies the theoretical and empirical implications of monetary policy making by committee under four different voting protocols the protocols are a consensus model where a supermajority is required for a policy change an agenda setting model where the chairman controls the agenda a dictator model where the chairman has absolute power over the committee and a simple majority model where policy is determined by the median member these protocols give preeminence to different aspects of the actual decision making process and capture the observed heterogeneity in formal procedures across central banks the models are estimated by maximum likelihood using interest rate decisions by the committees of five central banks namely the bank of canada the bank of england the european central bank the swedish riksbank and the u s federal reserve for all central banks results indicate that the consensus model fits actual policy decisions better than the alternative models this suggests that despite institutional differences committees share unwritten rules and informal procedures that deliver observationally equivalent policy decisions

posterior predictive evidence on us inflation using extended new keynesian phillips curve models with non filtered data changing time series properties of us inflation and economic activity measured as marginal costs are modeled within a set of extended new keynesian phillips curve nkpc models it is shown that mechanical removal or modeling of simple low frequency movements in the data may yield poor predictive results which depend on the model specification used basic nkpc models are extended to include structural time series models that describe typical time varying patterns in levels and volatilities forward and backward looking expectation components for inflation are incorporated and their relative importance is evaluated survey data on expected inflation are introduced to strengthen the information in the likelihood use is made of simulation based bayesian techniques for the empirical analysis no credible evidence is found on endogeneity and long run stability between inflation and marginal costs backward looking inflation appears stronger than forward looking inflation levels and volatilities of inflation are estimated more precisely using rich nkpc models the extended nkpc structures compare favorably with existing basic bayesian vector autoregressive and stochastic volatility models in terms of fit and prediction tails of the complete predictive distributions indicate an increase in the probability of deflation in recent years

illiquidity in the interbank payment system following wide scale disruptions we show how the interbank payment system can become illiquid following wide scale disruptions two forces are at play in such disruptions operational problems and changes in participants behavior if the disruption is large enough hits a key geographic area or hits a too big to fail participant then the smooth processing of payments can break down and central bank intervention might be required to reestablish the socially efficient equilibrium the paper provides a theoretical framework to analyze the effects of events such as the september 11 attack in addition the model can be reinterpreted to analyze shocks to fundamentals that affect the parameters of the intraday liquidity management game we demonstrate this by showing how processing behavior changed in response to heightened credit risk at the time of the lehman brothers failure

leaning against the wind during financial disruptions market makers provide liquidity by absorbing external selling pressure they buy when the pressure is large accumulate inventories and sell when the pressure alleviates this paper studies optimal dynamic liquidity provision in a theoretical market setting with large and temporary selling pressure and order execution delays i show that competitive market makers offer the socially optimal amount of liquidity provided they have access to sufficient capital if raising capital is costly this suggests a policy role for lenient central bank lending during financial disruptions

the payments system liquidity and rediscounting in an economy where fiat money serves both as a medium of exchange and the means by which debts are cleared it is shown that nonoptimal equilibria of constrained liquidity may arise optimality may be restored by temporary expansions of the monetary base e g an active central bank discount window copyright 1996 by american economic association

optimal clearing arrangements for financial trades abstract clearinghouses support financial trades by keeping records of transactions and by providing liquidity through short term credit that participants clear periodically we study efficient clearing arrangements for exchanges where traders must clear with a clearinghouse and for over the counter otc markets where traders can clear bilaterally when clearing is costly it can be efficient to subsidize otc clearing by charging a higher clearing price for transactions conducted on exchanges the clearinghouse then operates across both markets since clearinghouses offer credit intertemporal incentives are needed to ensure settlement when liquidity costs increase concerns about default lead to a tightening of liquidity provision

why inflation rose and fell policy makers beliefs and u s postwar stabilization policy this paper provides an explanation for the run up of u s inflation in the 1960s and 1970s and the sharp disinflation in the early 1980s which standard macroeconomic models have difficulties in addressing i present a model in which rational policymakers learn about the behavior of the economy in real time and set stabilization policy optimally conditional on their current beliefs the steady state associated with the self confirming equilibrium of the model is characterized by low inflation however prolonged episodes of high inflation ending with rapid disinflations can occur when policymakers underestimate both the natural rate of unemployment and the persistence of inflation in the phillips curve i estimate the model using likelihood methods the estimation results show that the model accounts remarkably well for the evolution of policymakers beliefs stabilization policy and the postwar behavior of inflation and unemployment in the united states

house prices and stock prices different roles in the us monetary transmission mechanism we analyze the role of house prices and stock prices in the monetary policy transmission mechanism in the us using a structural vector autoregressive model if we allow the interest rate and asset prices to react simultaneously to news we find different roles for house prices and stock prices in the monetary transmission mechanism following a contractionary monetary policy shock stock prices fall immediately while the response in house prices is more gradual regarding the systematic response in monetary policy stock prices play a more important role than house prices as a consequence house prices contribute more than stock prices to fluctuations in gross domestic product and inflation

asymmetric monetary policy rules in australia abstractin this study the hypothesis that the reserve bank of australia rba implements an asymmetric monetary policy rule is tested we estimate both linear and asymmetric monetary policy reaction functions for the period before inflation targeting was adopted for the period when inflation targeting was explicitly adopted and for the full sample period the results of the linear monetary policy rules are consistent with the estimates reported from other studies that estimate linear monetary policy rules for australia on the other hand the results of estimating the asymmetric monetary policy rules for the pre inflation targeting period shows that the rba had reacted symmetrically suggesting that it had acted with the same aggressiveness towards both inflation and output gaps of the same magnitude over both phases of the business cycle however for the inflation targeting period the results show that the rba had reacted asymmetrically in its policy response to the inflation gap output gap or both