sticky prices and monetary policy evidence from disaggregated us data this paper disentangles fluctuations in disaggregated prices due to macroeconomic and sectoral conditions using a factor augmented vector autoregression estimated on a large data set on the basis of this estimation we establish eight facts 1 macroeconomic shocks explain only about 15 of sectoral inflation fluctuations 2 the persistence of sectoral inflation is driven by macroeconomic factors 3 while disaggregated prices respond quickly to sector specific shocks their responses to aggregate shocks are small on impact and larger thereafter 4 most prices respond with a significant delay to identified monetary policy shocks and show little evidence of a price puzzle contrary to existing studies based on traditional vars 5 categories in which consumer prices fall the most following a monetary policy shock tend to be those in which quantities consumed fall the least 6 the observed dispersion in the reaction of producer prices is relatively well explained by the degree of market power 7 prices in sectors with volatile idiosyncratic shocks react rapidly to aggregate monetary policy shocks 8 the sector specific components of prices and quantities move in opposite directions

income tax evasion revisited the impact of interest rate yields on tax free municipal bonds 1 introductionincome tax evasion remains a timely issue as evidenced by recently published studies e g see feige 1989 1994 alm jackson and mckee 1992 pestieau possen and slutsky 1994 cebula 1997 2001 alm mcclelland and schulze 1999 atkins 1999 panteghini 2000 ali cecil and knoblett 2001 saltz 2001 in an effort to provide further insight into the determinants of tax evasion this study hypothesizes that the tax evasion decision may include an assessment of the tax free interest rate yield on say high grade municipal bonds relative to the taxable interest rate yield on alternative high quality bond issues such as 10 year treasury notes presumably the higher the interest rate yield on high grade municipals whose interest is legally exempt from federal income taxation relative to the taxable interest rate yield on 10 year treasury notes the more attractive those municipals become ceteris paribus in effect the interest paid on tax free bonds especially for households in higher tax brackets may offer an attractive legal alternative income tax avoidance to illegal income tax evasion 1 thus it is hypothesized that the higher the tax free interest rate yield on high grade municipals relative to the taxable yield on 10 year treasury notes or equivalent taxable issues the less the incentive for and hence the less the degree of income tax evasion this study investigates empirically whether higher yields on tax free municipals relative to the taxable yields on 10 year treasury notes reduce the degree of aggregate federal personal income tax evasion section 2 provides the model which includes a variety of variables already established in the literature to affect tax evasion section 3 describes the data sections 4 and 5 provide the empirical findings and concluding remarks 2 the modelthe economy consists of agents who generate economic value that is reflected in the form of income and choose whether to report none some or all of their income to the internal revenue service irs the probability that the representative economic agent will not report taxable income pnr is treated as an increasing function of the expected gross benefits to the agent of not reporting income eb and a decreasing function of the expected gross costs to the agent of not reporting income ec formula omitted see article image the expected gross benefits from not reporting income to the irs are hypothesized to be an increasing function of income tax rates unlike previous studies this study focuses on both the average effective federal personal income tax rate aept and the maximum marginal federal personal income tax rate max such that formula omitted see article image furthermore as suggested by feige 1994 and cebula 2001 the higher the level of public dissatisfaction dis with the perceived performance of government employees and elected government officials the greater the subjective benefit taxpayers derive from tax evasion accordingly becomes formula omitted see article image finally as explained in section 1 it is hypothesized in this study that the higher the tax free interest rate yield on high grade municipal bonds tf relative to the taxable interest rate yield on 10 year treasury notes ten the greater the incentive to engage in legal tax avoidance and the lower the incentive to engage in tax evasion thus becomes formula omitted see article image the expected gross costs of not reporting income to the irs are hypothesized to be an increasing function of the expected risks thereof in this study to the representative economic agent the expected penalty from not reporting taxable income to the irs if said activity is detected by the irs is measured in part by the total pecuniary penalties including both penalties per se and interest previously assessed by the irs on audited tax returns pen

enhancing central bank communications using simple and relatable information abstract central bankers and the central banking literature are increasingly attuned to the importance of communications as a policy tool however less is known about how central bank communications should be drafted for maximal impact our paper contributes new insights in this regard using a large scale online experiment with a sample representative of the uk population the paper documents the communicative techniques that increase public comprehension and trust in monetary and macroeconomic policy messages key findings include that the simplification of language increases public comprehension more than the inclusion of visuals and that public comprehension can be improved by making monetary policy messages relatable to people s lives relatable content also increases the public s trust in central bank communications and improves people s perceptions of the central bank our findings shed light on how central banks can improve communication with the public at a time when trust in public institutions has fallen while the responsibilities delegated to central banks have increased

rational heuristics expectations and behaviors in evolving economies with heterogeneous interacting agents we analyze the individual and macroeconomic impacts of heterogeneous expectations and action rules within an agent based model populated by heterogeneous interacting firms agents have to cope with a complex evolving economy characterized by deep uncertainty resulting from technical change imperfect information coordination hurdles and structural breaks in these circumstances we find that neither individual nor macroeconomic dynamics improve when agents replace myopic expectations with less naive learning rules our results suggest that fast and frugal robust heuristics may not be a second best option but rather rational responses in complex and changing macroeconomic environments jel c63 d8 e32 e6 o4

real rigidity nominal rigidity and the social value of information does welfare improve when firms are better informed about the state of the economy and can thus better coordinate their production and pricing decisions we address this question in an elementary business cycle model that highlights how the dispersion of information can impede both kinds of decisions and in this sense be the source of both real and nominal rigidity within this context we develop a taxonomy for how the social value of information depends on the two rigidities on the sources of the business cycle and on the conduct of monetary policy jel d21 d82 d83 e32 e52

fdicia after five years at year end 1991 congress enacted fundamental deposit insurance reform for banks and thrifts the fdic improvement act this reform followed the failure of more than 2 000 depository institutions in the 1980s many failed because the incentive incompatibility of the structure of federal government provided deposit insurance encouraged moral hazard behavior by banks and poor agent behavior by regulators insurance was put on a more incentive compatible basis providing for a graduated series of sanctions mimicking market discipline that first may and then must be applied by the regulators on floundering banks this article reviews these changes and evaluates early results

taxes on tax exempt bonds implicit tax rates priced in the cross section of municipal bonds are approximately two to three times as high as statutory income tax rates with implicit tax rates close to 100 using retail trades and above 70 for interdealer trades these implied tax rates can be identified because a portion of secondary market municipal bond trades involves income taxes after valuing the tax payments market discount bonds which carry income tax liabilities trade at yields around 25 basis points higher than com parable municipal bonds not subject to any taxes the high sensitivities of municipal bond prices to tax rates can be traced to individual retail traders dominating dealers and other institutions the issue of how taxes affect asset prices is an important issue in finance accounting and economics in theoretical models examining the effect of taxes

booms and busts with dispersed information abstract dispersed information can generate booms and busts in economic activity boom bust dynamics appear when firms are initially over optimistic about demand due to a noisy private news consequently they overproduce which generates a boom and depresses their markups because the news is private firms cannot relate these low markups to aggregate optimism as low markups can also signal low demand this overturns their expectations generating a bust we emphasize a novel role for imperfect common knowledge dispersed information makes firms ignorant about their competitors actions which makes them confuse high noise driven supply with low fundamental demand

optimal monetary policy with informational frictions we study optimal policy in a business cycle setting in which firms hold dispersed private information about or are rationally inattentive to the state of the economy the informational friction i

do people understand monetary policy abstract we combine questions from the michigan survey about future inflation unemployment and interest rates to investigate whether households are aware of the basic features of u s monetary policy our findings provide evidence that some households form their expectations in a way that is consistent with a taylor 1993 type rule we also document a large degree of variation in the pattern of responses over the business cycle in particular the negative relationship between unemployment and interest rates that is apparent in the data only shows up in households answers during periods of labor market weakness

learning from prices public communication and welfare we study the effect of releasing public information about productivity or monetary shocks using a micro founded macroeconomic model in which agents learn from the distribution of nominal prices while a public release has the direct beneficial effect of providing new information it also has the indirect adverse effect of reducing the informational efficiency of the price system we show that the negative indirect effect can dominate thus the public information release may increase uncertainty about the monetary shock and reduce welfare we find that the optimal communication policy is always to release either all or none of the information

interarea cost of living measurement with nonmarket goods a demand systems approach abstract this paper examines the importance of controlling for nonmarket good levels in the construction of cost of living indexes based on the parameters of a nonlinear demand system the quadratic expenditure system it uses data from the 1972 1973 survey of consumer expenditures for the four market good expenditure system and includes four nonmarket goods as translating variables it finds that market based indexes and their laspeyres type bounds should be constructed conditionally on nonmarket good levels however the errors incurred by ignoring nonmarket goods i e constructing a partial market based index as if it were a conditional index are generally small indexes constructed unconditionally on the other hand vary dramatically from the conditional ones at both the intercity and intrametropolitan levels

the opportunity cost of travel time in recreation demand models deciding how to allocate forage among animals is a fundamentally important process in range management the wisdom of these decisions can be enhanced by estimating the marginal value of forage needed by competing species we present a method for

knowing what others know coordination motives in information acquisition we explore how optimal information choices change the predictions of strategic models when a large number of agents play a game with strategic complementarity information choices exhibit complementarity as well if an agent wants to do what others do they want to know what others know this makes heterogeneous beliefs di cult to sustain and may generate multiple equilibria in models with substitutability agents prefer to difierentiate their information choices we use these theoretical results to examine the role of information choice in recent price setting models and to propose modeling techniques that ensure equilibrium uniqueness

imperfect information multiple shocks and policy s signaling role abstract in multiple shock models when agents have imperfect information they attempt to infer a shock s type in addition to its size in this environment monetary policy plays an important signaling role this paper highlights this signaling role by showing that conclusions from imperfect information monetary models are sensitive to the number of shocks included with multiple shocks contractionary monetary policy can initially increase inflation and delay the eventual disinflation moreover multiple shocks can result in destabilizing price flexibility while optimal policy s response to one shock will depend on the existence of other shocks contrary to a typical linear quadratic framework

how do firms form their expectations new survey evidence author s coibion o gorodnichenko y kumar s abstract 2018 american economic association all rights reserved we survey new zealand firms and document novel facts about their macroeconomic beliefs there is widespread dispersion in beliefs about past and future macroeconomic conditions especially inflation this dispersion in beliefs is consistent with firms incentives to collect and process information using experimental methods we find that firms update their beliefs in a bayesian manner when presented with new information about the economy and that changes in their beliefs affect their decisions inflation is not generally perceived as being important to business decisions so firms devote few resources to collecting and processing information about inflation

a critical exploration of sponsorship infrastructure and new organizations this research focuses on the effects of public sponsorship and regional infrastructure on the emergence and survival of new organizations propositions are tested regarding the joint effects of sponsorship and infrastructure on industrial development in a randomly selected sample of fourteen regions the data include six measures of infrastructure sponsorship as measured by the total dollars spent for economic development and their individual and joint effects on the number of firms and employees in high technology industries for the years 1965 1970 1975 1980 and 1984 this preliminary analysis suggests that variation in the infrastructure and level of sponsorship within a region is related to the birth and survival of new organizations

the role of site and job characteristics in hedonic wage models recent economic analyses of wage rate differentials have generally used some form of hedonic framework in explaining the observed wage structure while these studies have adopted this common theoretical justification the models have been used to serve two distinct objectives the first of these is an empirical test of the theory of equalizing differences originally introduced by adam smith in such applications see brown 7 lucas 26 olson 28 thaler and rosen 36 and viscusi 40 as examples specific job characteristics measured with technical information or with worker perceptions have been used to explain differences in wage rates across individuals and jobs while there are a number of these studies there has not been a consistent pattern of support for the theory indeed with the exception of job risks many characteristics that a priori would be expected to lead to equalizing differences have often exhibited incorrect and or statistically insignificant measured effects on wages the second use for wage models has been as the basis for an index of the quality of life in urban areas in this framework households are assumed to select residential locations so as to maximize their individual welfare migration between cities provides the mechanism for an equilibrium household assignment under ideal conditions the pattern of equilibrium wage rates reflects the attributes of the cities involved see hoch 20 izraeli 23 cropper lo cropper and arriaga salinas 111 and rosen 31 as examples the purpose of this paper is to develop a model for wage rate differentials that includes both job and site characteristics and to estimate the model with a large micro data set our wage models provide estimates of a market clearing envelope which includes each of two types of past analyses as a

inflation expectations and firm decisions new causal evidence author s coibion o gorodnichenko y ropele t abstract 2019 the author s we use a unique design feature of a survey of italian firms to study the causal effect of inflation expectations on firms economic decisions in the survey a randomly chosen subset of firms is repeatedly treated with information about recent inflation whereas other firms are not this information treatment generates exogenous variation in inflation expectations we find that higher inflation expectations on the part of firms leads them to raise their prices increase demand for credit and reduce their employment and capital however when policy rates are constrained by the effective lower bound demand effects are stronger leading firms to raise their prices more and no longer reduce their employment

information frictions and real exchange rate dynamics abstract real exchange rates are highly volatile and persistent i provide a novel structural explanation for these facts using a model with dispersed information among firms when producers face strategic complementarities in price setting uncertainty about competitors beliefs results in sluggish price adjustment that can generate large and long lived real exchange rate movements i estimate the model using data from the us and euro area and show that it successfully explains the unconditional volatility and persistence of the real exchange rate the model also accounts for the persistent and hump shaped real exchange rate behavior conditional on nominal disturbances documented by a structural var about 50 of this persistence is due to the inertial dynamics of higher order beliefs

monetary policy for inattentive economies we offer a contribution to the analysis of optimal monetary policy we begin with a critical assessment of the existing literature arguing that most work is based on implausible models of inflation output dynamics we then suggest that this problem may be solved with some recent behavioral models which assume that price setters are slow to incorporate macroeconomic information into the prices they set a specific such model is developed and used to derive optimal policy in response to shocks to productivity and aggregate demand optimal policy is price level targeting base drift in the price level which is implicit in the inflation targeting regimes currently used in many central banks is not desirable in this model when shocks to desired markups are added optimal policy is flexible targeting of the price level that is the central bank should allow the price level to deviate from its target for a while in response to these supply shocks but it should eventually return the price level to its target path optimal policy can also be described as an elastic price standard the central bank allows the price level to deviate from its target when output is expected to deviate from its natural rate

monetary policy announcements and expectations evidence from german firms abstract we assess empirically whether monetary policy announcements impact firm expectations two features of our data set are key first we rely on a survey of production and price expectations of german firms that is expectations of actual price setters second we observe the day on which firms submit their answers to the survey we compare the responses of firms before and after monetary policy surprises and obtain two results first firm expectations respond to policy surprises second the response becomes weaker as the surprise becomes bigger a contractionary surprise of moderate size reduces firm expectations while a moderate expansionary surprise raises them large surprises both negative and positive fail to alter expectations consistent with this result we find that many of the ecb s announcements of non conventional policies did not affect expectations significantly overall our results are consistent with the notion that monetary policy surprises generate an information effect which is endogenous to the size of the policy surprise

an informational rationale for action over disclosure abstract the past two decades have seen a considerable increase in the amount of public information provided by policymakers are such disclosures desirable or is it instead preferable to use such information to condition a policy instrument such a tax or an interest rate this paper studies the relative merits of each means to use a policymaker s information in a flexible class of economies that feature dispersed information and payoff and learning externalities i provide conditions for when the exclusive use of a policy instrument or disclosure is optimal i then relate these to differences in the equilibrium and socially optimal use of information i conclude with a series of applications that show how my results apply to common beauty contest models competitive economies and a broad class of macroeconomic models among others

the implicit valuation of risks to life a comparative analysis abstract this paper reports estimates of the implicit valuation of risk reductions for different sources of risk on the job accidents and exposure to air pollutants a hedonic wage model estimated using the may 1978 current population survey for individuals in 44 smsa s provides the basis for the estimates of implicit values of risk the findings suggest quite different valuations of comparable risk changes

the expected price of keeping up with the joneses abstract inflation expectations elicited in surveys have been found to exhibit large dispersion across individuals although several explanations have been proposed none fully explain this puzzle we explore in this paper a new behavioral factor social comparison using original survey data we find that respondents who feel they are falling behind compared to their peers report significantly and substantially higher inflation expectations we argue that this result is consistent with an experience based belief formation model in which those unable to keep up with the joneses overweight the high prices of aspiration goods they are unable to purchase

exogenous information endogenous information and optimal monetary policy most of the analysis of optimal monetary policy is conducted with the calvo model this paper studies optimal monetary policy when the slow adjustment of the price level is due to imperfect information by decision makers in firms we consider two models a model with exogenous dispersed information and a rational inattention model in the model with exogenous dispersed information complete stabilization of the price level is optimal after aggregate productivity shocks but not after markup shocks by contrast in the rational inattention model complete stabilization of the price level is optimal both after aggregate productivity shocks and after markup shocks moreover in the model with exogenous dispersed information there is no value from commitment to a future monetary policy by contrast in the rational inattention model there is value from commitment to a future monetary policy because then the private sector can trust the central bank that not paying attention to certain variables is optimal

hedonic price functions and the measurement of preferences the case of swedish wine consumers abstract a hedonic price function for wine is estimated using swedish data 1989 1991 implicit prices for quality attributes are determined not from a regression of variety price on a vector of quality attributes but rather from a regression of quantity sold adjusted for weeks of availability on price and quality attributes such a reduced form is justified by the assumption that prices and attribute contents can be taken as exogenous to the swedish consumer price elasticity is estimated to be about 1 65 holding quality constant showing that swedish consumers are highly sensitive to price estimates of the implicit valuations of quality attributes are shown to differ greatly from those obtained from the more usual hedonic regression with price as the dependent variable

firms price cost and activity expectations evidence from micro data firms expectations play a central role in modern macroeconomic models but little is known empirically about how these are formed or whether they matter for economic outcomes using a novel panel data set of manufacturing firms expectations about prices and wage rates new orders employment and unit costs for the united kingdom we document a range of stylized facts about the properties of firms expectations and their relationship with recent experience there is wide dispersion of expectations across firms expected future price and wage growth are influenced by firm specific factors but macroeconomic factors also matter expectations of employment and new orders are influenced by firm specific measures of past orders while expected unit costs seem to be influenced more by firm specific cost pressures and aggregate import prices after controlling for a wide range of variables we find a significant connection between past expected price and wage increases and their out turns but there is also strong evidence that firms expectations are clearly not rational

federal reserve information and the behavior of interest rates this paper tests for the existence of asymmetric information between the federal reserve and the public by examining federal reserve and commercial inflation forecasts it demonstrates that the federal reserve has considerable information about inflation beyond what is known to commercial forecasters it also shows that monetary policy actions provide signals of the federal reserve s information and that commercial forecasters modify their forecasts in response to those signals these findings may explain why long term interest rates typically rise in response to shifts to tighter monetary policy jel e52 e43 d82 asymmetric information between the federal reserve and the public is a phenomenon that is often posited but rarely tested numerous models of central bank behavior for example show that the existence of asymmetric information has important implications for the effectiveness of policy and the consequences of dynamic inconsistency yet there

inflation expectations as a policy tool abstract we assess the prospects for central banks using inflation expectations as a policy tool for stabilization purposes we review recent work on how expectations of agents are formed and how they affect their economic decisions empirical evidence suggests that inflation expectations of households and firms affect their actions but the underlying mechanisms remain unclear especially for firms two additional limitations prevent policy makers from being able to actively manage inflation expectations first available surveys of firms expectations are systematically deficient which can only be addressed through the creation of large nationally representative surveys of firms second neither households nor firms expectations respond much to monetary policy announcements in low inflation environments we provide suggestions for how monetary policy makers could pierce this veil of inattention through new communication strategies as well as the potential pitfalls to trying to do so

new estimates of quality of life in urban areas implicit markets capture compensation for intraurban and interregional differe nces in amenities and yield differences in housing prices and wages these pecuniary differences become preference based weights in a qual ity of life index hedonic equations are estimated using microdata fr om the 1980 census and assembled county based amenity data on climati c environmental and urban conditions ranking of 253 urban counties reveals substantial variation within as well as among the 185 urba n areas the quality of life differences across counties within one s msa is almost one half of the difference between the top and bottom ranked counties in the nation copyright 1988 by american economic association

what can survey forecasts tell us about information rigidities a lot we derive common and conflicting predictions from models in which agents face information constraints and then assess their validity using surveys of consumers firms central bankers and professional forecasters we document that mean forecasts fail to completely adjust on impact to shocks leading to statistically and economically significant deviations from the null of full information the dynamics of forecast errors after shocks are consistent with the predictions of models with information rigidities the conditional responses of forecast errors and disagreement among agents can also be used to differentiate between some of the most prominent models of information rigidities

the amenity value of the italian climate the hedonics literature suggests that locations with more favourable characteristics should display compensating wage and house price differentials specifying climate in terms of january and july averages estimates of the marginal willingness to pay for small changes in climate variables are derived using this technique applied to italian data italians would prefer a drier climate during the winter months but higher summertime temperatures are shown to reduce welfare in some locations households would prefer to see clearer skies these results may have relevance to the task of determining the economic impact of future climate change c 2003 elsevier science usa all rights reserved

optimal monetary policy with imperfect common knowledge we study optimal nominal demand policy in a flexible price economy with monopolistic competition where firms have imperfect common knowledge about the shocks hitting the economy information imperfections emerge endogenously because firms are assumed to have finite shannon capacity to process information we then ask how policy that minimizes a quadratic objective in output and prices depends on firms processing capacity when price setting decisions of firms are strategic complements we find that policy should nominally accommodate white noise mark up shocks for a large range of capacity values this fi nding is robust to the policy maker observing shocks imperfectly or being uncertain about firms processing capacity when mark up shocks are persistent accommodation may even have to increase in the medium term but has to decrease in the long run thereby generating a hump shaped price response and a slow reduction in output instead when prices are strategic substitutes policy tends to react with nominal demand contractions to mark up shocks in addition there might exist discontinuities between common knowledge equilibria and equilibria with small amounts of imperfect common knowledge

the price is right updating inflation expectations in a randomized price information experiment abstract using a unique randomized information experiment embedded in a survey this paper investigates how consumers inflation expectations respond to new information we find that respondents on average update their expectations in response to certain types of information and do so sensibly in a manner consistent with bayesian updating as a result of information provision the distribution of inflation expectations converges toward its center and cross sectional disagreement declines we document heterogeneous information processing by gender and present suggestive evidence of respondents forecasting under asymmetric loss our results provide support for expectation formation models in which agents form expectations rationally but face information constraints

inattentive professional forecasters abstract using the ecb survey of professional forecasters to characterize expectations at the micro level we emphasize two new facts forecasters i fail to systematically update their forecasts and ii disagree even when updating it is moreover found that forecasters have predictable forecast errors these facts are qualitatively supportive of recent models of inattention and suggest a setup where agents imperfectly process information due to both sticky information a la mankiw reis and noisy information a la sims however building and estimating such an expectation model we find that it cannot quantitatively replicate the error and disagreement observed in the data

high frequency identification of monetary non neutrality the information effect we present estimates of monetary non neutrality based on evidence from high frequency responses of real interest rates expected inflation and expected output growth our identifying assumption is that unexpected changes in interest rates in a 30 minute window surrounding scheduled federal reserve announcements arise from news about monetary policy in response to an interest rate hike nominal and real interest rates increase roughly one for one several years out into the term structure while the response of expected inflation is small at the same time forecasts about output growth also increase the opposite of what standard models imply about a monetary tightening to explain these facts we build a model in which fed announcements affect beliefs not only about monetary policy but also about other economic fundamentals our model implies that these information effects play an important role in the overall causal effect of monetary policy shocks on output

price dispersion private uncertainty and endogenous nominal rigidities this article shows that when agents learn from prices large private uncertainty may result from a small amount of heterogeneity as in a phelps lucas island model final producers look at the prices of their local inputs to infer aggregate conditions however market linkages between islands make the informativeness of local prices endogenous to general equilibrium relations in this context i show that a vanishingly small heterogeneity in local conditions is enough to generate an equilibrium in which prices are rigid to aggregate shocks and transmit only partial information i use this insight as a microfoundation for price rigidity in an otherwise frictionless monetary model and show that even a tiny amount of dispersion in fundamentals can lead to large non neutrality of money

assessing inflation expectations anchoring for heterogeneous agents analysts businesses and trade unions forecasts of agents who are actively involved in the setting of prices and wages are less readily available than those of professional analysts but may be more relevant for understanding inflation

an empirical note on the impact of the federal budget deficit on ex ante real long term interest rates 1973 1995 this study investigates the impact of the u s federal budget deficit on ex ante real long term interest rates in the u s using quarterly data for the period from 1973 through 1995 the study adopts a loanable funds model two stage least squares estimates reveal that the federal budget deficit acted to elevate the ex ante real long term interest rate on ten year u s treasury notes moody s aaa rated corporate bonds and moody s baa rated corporate bonds

the tax rate induced bond substitution hypothesis and the traditional textbook treatment of the relationship between tax free and taxable bond yields abstractthis empirical study posits and tests the tax rate induced bond substitution hypothesis wherein the propensity for bond buyers to substitute tax exempt municipal bonds for taxable bonds

the cyclical behavior of marginal cost and price the author examines the cyclical behavior of price marginal cost margins for u s manufac turing after 1956 short run marginal cost is markedly procyclical this is primarily due to procyclical overtime payments incurred beca use employment is not perfectly flexible in most industries output price fails to respond to the cyclical movement in marginal cost so price marginal cost margins are markedly countercyclical the res ults contradict business cycle theories that explain low production i n a recession by a high real cost of producing they support theories that explain low production in a recession by the inability of firms to sell their output copyright 1987 by american economic association

home biased expectations and macroeconomic imbalances in a monetary union abstract under monetary union economic dynamics may diverge across countries due to regional inflation differentials and a pro cyclical real interest rate channel yet stability is generally ensured through endogenous adjustment of the real exchange rate the speed of adjustment depends inter alia on the way agents form expectations we propose a model in which agents expectations are largely based on domestic variables and less so on foreign variables we show that such home bias in expectations strengthens the real interest rate channel and causes country specific shocks to generate larger and more prolonged macroeconomic imbalances

signalling effects of monetary policy we develop a dynamic general equilibrium model in which the policy rate signals the central bank s view about macroeconomic developments to price setters the model is estimated with likelihood methods on a u s data set that includes the survey of professional forecasters as a measure of price setters inflation expectations this model improves upon existing perfect information models in explaining why in the data inflation expectations respond with delays to monetary impulses and remain disanchored for years in the 1970s u s monetary policy is found to signal persistent inflationary shocks explaining why inflation and inflation expectations were so persistently heightened the signalling effects of monetary policy also explain why inflation expectations adjusted more sluggishly than inflation after the robust monetary tightening of the 1980s

comparing the point predictions and subjective probability distributions of professional forecasters we use data from the survey of professional forecasters spf to compare point predictions of gross domestic product gdp growth and inflation with the subjective probability distributions held by forecasters we find that most spf point predictions are quite close to the central tendencies of forecasters subjective distributions tend to be asymmetric with spf forecasters tending to report point predictions that give a more favorable view of the economy than do their subjective means medians modes

macroeconomic expectations of households and professional forecasters economists have long emphasized the importance of expectations in determining macroeconomic outcomes yet there has been almost no recent effort to model actual empirical expectations data instead m acroeconomists usually simply assume that expectations are rational this paper shows that while empirical household expectations are not rational in the usual sense expectational dynamics are well captured by a model in which households views derive from news reports of the views of professional forecasters which in turn may be rational the model s estimates imply that people only occasionally pay attention to news reports this inattention generates stickyness in aggregate expectations with important macroeconomic consequences

current account dynamics under information rigidity and imperfect capital mobility abstract the current account in developed countries is highly persistent and volatile in comparison to their output growth the standard intertemporal current account model with rational expectations re fails to explain the observed current account and consumption dynamics the re model extended with imperfect capital mobility by shibata and shintani 1998 can account for the consumption dynamics but only at the cost of the explanatory power for the volatility of the current account this paper replaces re in the intertemporal current account model with sticky information si in which consumers are inattentive to shocks to their income the si model can better explain a persistent and volatile current account than the re model but it overpredicts the persistence of changes in consumption the si model extended with imperfect capital mobility explains both the current account and consumption provided that sufficiently high degrees of information rigidity and imperfect capital mobility are considered

the signaling role of policy actions abstract in an economy affected by shocks that are imperfectly known the monetary instrument takes on a dual stabilizing role as a policy response that directly influences the economy and as a vehicle for information that reveals the central bank s assessment to firms because mark up shocks cannot be neutralized by monetary policy providing firms with more information about these shocks exacerbates their reaction and creates a larger distortion recognizing the signaling role of its instrument the central bank distorts its policy response in order to optimally shape firms beliefs while providing firms with more information is always detrimental to the output gap it has a more subtle effect on price dispersion depending on whether information is provided through the transparency channel or through the signaling channel although more transparency is always detrimental to welfare the information that is conveyed by the monetary instrument improves welfare when firms coordination is highly valuable

estimating workers marginal willingness to pay for job attributes using duration data this paper develops and applies a method for estimating workers marginal willingess to pay for job attributes when workers job choices are characterized by imperfect information and labor market search as an application this paper analyzes the job durations of white males using data from the national longitudinal survey youth cohort and the dictionary of occupational titles estimates of workers willingness to pay derived from the job duration model are compared with those derived from an hedonic wage model

setting the right prices for the wrong reasons we consider a model of nominal price adjustment with firm specific and aggregate shocks to economic fundamentals and incomplete dispersed information firms update their expectations about fundamentals based on their own cash flows revenues and wages we show that in a model with realistic levels of product level price dispersion the firms inference about aggregate shocks is very gradual yet in the aggregate prices adjust rapidly in response to aggregate nominal shocks when an aggregate shock occurs firms mistakenly attribute it to firm specific shocks but adjust prices nevertheless since the exact nature of the shock matters little for its optimal pricing decision

local amenities and life cycle migration do people move for jobs or fun abstract do households move for jobs or fun and where do they go when they move we address these questions using the 1970 2000 us census based on a panel of quality of life and business environment measures households prefer msas in warm coastal areas and non metropolitan locations while firms prefer large growing cities in addition cities with improving business environments acquire increasing shares of workers especially workers with high levels of human capital cities with improving consumer amenities become relatively more populated by retirees further analysis of individual level migration decisions indicates that regardless of marital status young highly educated households tend to move towards places with higher quality business environments this tendency is especially pronounced among highly educated couples who are more subject to job market co location problems in contrast regardless of education couples near retirement tend to move away from places with favorable business environments and towards places with highly valued consumer amenities these patterns help explain why areas unattractive to both households and business have struggled as with upstate new york while the sun belt and other regions are thriving

socially optimal coordination characterization and policy implications in recent years there has been a growing interest in macro models with heterogeneity in information and complementarity in actions these models deliver promising positive properties such as heightened inertia and volatility but they also raise important normative questions such as whether the heightened inertia and volatility are socially undesirable whether there is room for policies that correct the way agents use information in equilibrium and what are the wel

firm performance and macro forecast accuracy abstract combining a unique survey of japanese firms gdp forecasts with accounting data for 25 years we find three main results first firms gdp forecasts are associated with their employment investment and output growth in the subsequent year second over optimistic and pessimistic forecast errors predict lower profitability and productivity consistent with our model of input choice under uncertainty third larger and more cyclical firms make forecasts closer to professionals presumably reflecting their higher return to accuracy forecasts by more productive and older firms are also more similar to professional forecasts implying forecasting ability is linked to management ability and experience

firms asset holdings and inflation expectations abstract this paper investigates the relationship between firms inflation expectations and their holdings of liquid assets we implement a new quantitative survey of firms expectations about inflation in new zealand we find that firms that hold more shares of liquid assets systematically report lower inflation expectations moreover we implement an experiment by providing firms new exogenous information about recent inflation dynamics this experiment allows us to assess how firms respond to new information in terms of belief revisions and firm level decisions

are sunspots learnable an experimental investigation in a simple macroeconomic model abstract we conduct experiments with human subjects in a model with a positive production externality in which productivity is a nondecreasing function of the average level of employment of other firms the model has three steady states and a sunspot equilibrium that fluctuates between the high and low steady states steady states are payoff ranked low values give lower profits than higher values we investigate whether subjects can learn a sunspot equilibrium we observe coordination on the extrinsic announcements in our experimental economies cases of apparent convergence to the low and high steady states are also observed

optimal monetary policy when information is market generated endogenous i e market generated signals observed by firms have crucial implications for monetary policy when information is endogenous firms gather a demand signal from their market that is both real and nominal as a result the traditional surprise channel of monetary policy is absent instead monetary policy works through a signaling channel as it affects firms information through the demand signal the optimal policy is then the signaling policy i e the policy that maximizes the information content of the demand signal in our setup the signaling policy targets a positive correlation between money supply and prices which emphasizes the natural response of prices to real shocks on the contrary in the more traditional case of exogenous information optimal monetary policy would stabilize prices as it acts through the surprise channel we show that the signaling policy is optimal regardless of the amount of attention that firms pay to central bank communication

optimal sticky prices under rational inattention this paper presents a model in which price setting firms decide what to pay attention to subject to a constraint on information flow when idiosyncratic conditions are more variable or more important than aggregate conditions firms pay more attention to idiosyncratic conditions than to aggregate conditions when we calibrate the model to match the large average absolute size of price changes observed in micro data prices react fast and by large amounts to idiosyncratic shocks but only slowly and by small amounts to nominal shocks nominal shocks have strong and persistent real effects we use the model to investigate how the optimal allocation of attention and the dynamics of prices depend on the firms environment jel e 3 e5 d8

implications of rational inattention abstract a constraint that actions can depend on observations only through a communication channel with finite shannon capacity is shown to be able to play a role very similar to that of a signal extraction problem or an adjustment cost in standard control problems the resulting theory looks enough like familiar dynamic rational expectations theories to suggest that it might be useful and practical while the implications for policy are different enough to be interesting

optimal monetary policy with uncertain fundamentals and dispersed information this paper studies optimal monetary policy in a model where aggregate fluctuations are driven by the private sector s uncertainty about the economy s fundamentals information on aggregate productivity is dispersed across agents and there are two aggregate shocks a standard productivity shock and a noise shock affecting public beliefs about aggregate productivity neither the central bank nor individual agents can distinguish the two shocks when they are realized despite the lack of superior information monetary policy can affect the economy s relative response to the two shocks as time passes better information on past fundamentals becomes available the central bank can then adopt a backward looking policy rule based on more precise information about past shocks by announcing its response to future information the central bank can influence the expected real interest rate faced by forward looking consumers with different beliefs and thus affect the equilibrium allocation if the announced future response is sufficiently aggressive the central bank can completely eliminate the effect of noise shocks however this policy is typically suboptimal as it leads to an excessively compressed distribution of relative prices the optimal monetary policy balances the benefits of aggregate stabilization with the costs in terms of cross sectional efficiency copyright wiley blackwell

a simple model of the taxable and tax exempt yield curves i examine the anomalous behavior of the taxable and tax exempt yield curves long municipal yields appear too high relative to the equivalent after tax yield that can be earned in treasury or corporate bonds i discuss existing explanations of the problem and propose a simple model that relates the yields of taxable bonds to the yield curve for par tax exempts the ratio of the tax exempt yield to the taxable yield increases with maturity in the model so it is consistent with observed phenomena such as inverted yield curves for taxables and contemporaneous rising yield curves for tax exempts statistical and descriptive comparisons between the yields predicted by the model and observed yields on par bonds that the model has some promise in explaining the apparent anomalies in the behaviors of the two yield curves article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

crises and prices information aggregation multiplicity and volatility crises are volatile times when endogenous sources of information are closely monitored we study the role of information in crises by introducing a financial market in a coordination game with imperfect information the asset price aggregates dispersed private information acting as a public noisy signal in contrast to the case with exogenous information our main result is that uniqueness may not obtain as a perturbation from perfect information multiplicity is ensured with small noise in addition we show that a multiplicity may emerge in the financial price itself b less noise may contribute toward nonfundamental volatility even when the equilibrium is unique and c similar results obtain for a model where individuals observe one another s actions highlighting the importance of endogenous information more generally

effective lower bound risk abstract even when the policy rate is currently not constrained by its effective lower bound elb the possibility that the policy rate will become constrained in the future lowers today s inflation by creating tail risk in future inflation and thus reducing expected inflation in an empirically rich model calibrated to match key features of the u s economy we find that the tail risk induced by the elb causes inflation to undershoot the target rate of 2 by as much as 50 basis points at the economy s risky steady state our model suggests that achieving the inflation target may be more difficult now than before the great recession if the likely decline in long run neutral rates has led households and firms to revise up their estimate of the frequency of future elb events