low inflation the behavior of financial markets and institutions this paper provides a broad overview of the potential impact of low inflation deflation on u s financial markets and institutions it is argued that the contemporary experience of japan and the historical experience of the united states in the 1920s and 1930s offer only limited insights into the potential impact of low inflation deflation on today s u s financial system a number of potential implications are discussed including a decline in secondary market trading and a trend towards reintermediation in addition low inflation deflation is likely to have a material effect on bank duration and convexity exposures

nonmonetary effects of the financial crisis in propagation of the great depression this paper examines the effects of the financial crisis of the 1930s onthe path of aggregate output during that period our approach is complementary to that of friedman and schwartz who emphasized the monetary impact of the bank failures we focus on non monetary primarily credit related aspects of the financial sector output link and consider the problems of debtors as well as those of the banking system we argue that the financial disruptions of 1930 33 reduced the efficiency of the credit allocation process and that the resulting higher cost and reduced availability of credit acted to depress aggregate demand evidence suggests that effects of this type can help explain the unusual length and depth of the great depression this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

back to the futures an assessment of market performance on the early winnipeg grain exchange in this paper i offer a quantitatively rich historical perspective with which to consider western canada s recent return to private grain marketing i assess how futures markets on the winnipeg grain exchange wge performed before the canadian wheat board and i consider the extent to which this performance contributed to the canadian government s decision to create the board i conclude despite significant agrarian dissatisfaction with private grain marketing on the wge the canadian government ultimately proscribed futures trading because it was incompatible with the cwb model which the canadian government needed in order to stabilize farm incomes particularly in the aftermath of the great depression resume retour aux contrats a terme une evaluation de la performance du marche au temps du winnipeg grain exchange l auteur offre une perspective historique qui s appuie sur de riches donnees quantitatives qu il utilise pour evaluer le recent retour de la mise en marche privee dans l ouest canadien il evalue la performance des marches a terme sur le winnipeg grain exchange wge avant l arrivee de la commission canadienne du ble cwb et jusqu a quel point cette performance a contribue a la decision du gouvernement du canada de mettre sur pied la cwb il conclut que malgre le mecontentement significatif du monde agricole quant a la mise en marche privee sur le wge le gouvernement du canada mit fin a ses pratiques parce que celles ci etaient incompatibles avec le modele de la cwb dont le canada avait besoin pour stabiliser les revenus des fermiers surtout dans la periode qui a suivi la grande crise

precautionary saving and endogenous labor supply with and without intertemporal expected utility we analyze precautionary saving behavior in a framework with labor and nonlabor income risks an endogenous supply of labor and a representation of preferences that disentangles attitudes towards risk attitudes towards intertemporal substitution and ordinal preferences for consumption and leisure this preference structure allows us to disentangle and to describe in an intuitive way the different forces that determine precautionary saving in the small and in the large

well being social capital and public policy what s new this article summarises recent empirical research on the determinants of subjective well being results from national and international samples suggest that measures of social capital including especially the corollary measures of specific and general trust have substantial effects on well being beyond those flowing through economic channels cross national samples supported by parallel analysis of suicide data show large well being effects from the quality of government finally using well being data to estimate the income equivalents non financial aspects of the workplace produces numbers so large as to suggest the existence of unexploited opportunities to improve both employee satisfaction and enterprise efficiency

was the deflation during the great depression anticipated evidence from the commodity futures market futures prices were well above spot prices for most commodities during most of the great depression evidently the spectacular declines in agricultural prices caught many people by surprise based on the historical correlations between commodity prices and consumer prices commodity markets anticipated stable consumer prices during the first year of the great depression the dramatic drop in nominal treasury bill yields thus should be read as a drop in ex ante real rates later in the great depression markets anticipated deflation but not as severe as actually occurred copyright 1992 by american economic association

deflation and depression is there an empirical link are deflation and depression empirically linked no concludes a broad historical study of inflation and real output growth rates deflation and depression do seem to have been linked during the 1930s but in the rest of the data for 17 countries and more than 100 years there is virtually no evidence of such a link

risk taking global diversification and growth this paper develops a continuous time stochastic model in which international risk sharing can yield substantial welfare gains through its effect on expected consumption growth the mechanism linking global diversification to growth is an attendant world portfolio shift from safe low yield capital to riskier high yield capital the presence of these two types of capital captures the idea that growth depends on the availability of an ever increasing array of specialized hence inherently risky production inputs calibration exercises using consumption and stock market data imply that most countries reap large steady state welfare gains from global financial integration copyright 1994 by american economic association

could a monetary base rule have prevented the great depression abstract this paper continues an ongoing investigation of the properties of a policy rule that specifies settings of the monetary base that are designed to keep nominal gnp growing smoothly at a noninflationary rate counterfactual historical simulations for 1923 1941 are conducted with the rule and a small model of nominal gnp determination estimated with u s quarterly data with residuals fed in as estimates of the behavioral shocks that occurred the simulation results indicate that nominal gnp would have been kept reasonably close to a steady three percent path over 1923 1941 if the rule had been in effect

detecting spot price forecasts in futures prices futures markets are often described as having two important social functions first they facilitate the transfer of commodity price risk and second they provide forecasts of commodity prices the evidence that futures markets transfer price risk is irrefutable however there is some debate about the markets forecasting ability in particular forecasts based on the current spot price are often as good as those based on the futures price some economists cite a failure to detect superior forecast power in futures prices as evidence of market inefficiency see e g leuthold 1974 and martin and garcia 1981 there are at least two other explanations first there may be nothing for the futures market to forecast if the current spot price equals the true expectation of the future spot price the futures market cannot provide a better forecast second a superior futures market forecast may be obscured by the unexpected component of the realized spot price the true expectation of the future spot price is unobservable one must approximate this expectation with the actual future spot price

were price changes during the great depression anticipated abstract this paper reassesses whether the large swings in prices during the 1930 s were anticipated we argue that uncertainty about monetary fiscal and exchange rate policies induced systematic differences between the rate of price change expected by economic agents at the time and the time series forecasts of inflation our analysis of nominal interest rates and ex post inflation strongly supports this view in fact our results suggest that the deflation of the early depression years and the inflation that followed were both largely unanticipated

the spirit of capitalism and savings behavior abstract this paper presents a capitalist spirit model of savings by including wealth in the intertemporal utility function while this model includes the life cycle model and bequest model as two special cases it sheds light on why wealth holding has tended to increase with age why decumulation of wealth after retirement has not happened and why households with and without children have not shown significant differences in their savings behavior the capitalist spirit approach is especially useful for understanding savings by the rich and savings across countries and over time jel e21 b10

can futures market data be used to understand the behavior of real interest rates this paper examines whether futures market data can be used to understand the behavior of real interest rates several ways of examining the data indicate that futures market data are not particularly informative about real interest rates not only does this evidence cast some doubt on results in previous research that make use of futures market data to draw inferences about real interest rates but it also indicates that future research on real interest rates may need to turn to a different line of attack understanding the behavior of real interest rates is a central issue in financial economics in previous research on this topic several approaches have been used to measure real interest rates in one approach real interest rates have been calculated by subtracting survey data on inflation expectations such as the livingston data from nominal interest rates the problem with survey based measures of real interest rates is that they are only as good as the survey measure of inflation expectations and there may be little incentive for the survey respondents to answer accurately an even more telling criticism of survey based measures often ignored in the literature is that the behavior of market expectations in driven by economic agents ai the margin who are eliminating unexploited profit opportunities market expectations are unlikely therefore to be well measured by the average expectations of survey respondents 2 because of doubts about survey based measures of real interest rates other

life satisfaction and self employment a matching approach despite lower incomes the self employed consistently report higher satisfaction with their jobs but are self employed individuals also happier more satisfied with their lives as a whole high job satisfaction might cause them to neglect other important domains of life such that the fulfilling job crowds out other pleasures leaving the individual on the whole not happier than others moreover self employment is often chosen to escape unemployment not for the associated autonomy that seems to account for the high job satisfaction we apply matching estimators that allow us to better take into account the above mentioned considerations and construct an appropriate control group in terms of balanced covariates using the bhps dataset that comprises a large nationally representative sample of the british populace we find that individuals who move from regular employment into self employment experience an increase in life satisfaction up to 2 years later while individuals moving from unemployment to self employment are not more satisfied than their counterparts moving from unemployment to regular employment we argue that these groups correspond to opportunity and necessity entrepreneurship respectively these findings are robust with regard to different measures of subjective well being as well as choice of matching variables and also robustness exercises involving simulated confounders

a new model of trend inflation this article introduces a new model of trend inflation in contrast to many earlier approaches which allow for trend inflation to evolve according to a random walk ours is a bounded model which ensures that trend inflation is constrained to lie in an interval the bounds of this interval can either be fixed or estimated from the data our model also allows for a time varying degree of persistence in the transitory component of inflation in an empirical exercise with cpi inflation we find the model to work well yielding more sensible measures of trend inflation and forecasting better than popular alternatives such as the unobserved components stochastic volatility model this article has supplementary materials online

late career entrepreneurship income and quality of life late career transitions to entrepreneurship are discussed as a promising way to address some of the problematic implications of population aging by extending employment choice theory to simultaneously account for career stage and for non monetary rewards from entrepreneurship we investigate how late career transitions from organizational employment to entrepreneurship influence the returns from the monetary income and non monetary quality of life components of an individual s utility using data from the english longitudinal study of ageing our empirical analysis shows that for late career individuals starting a business is positively associated with change in quality of life and negatively associated with change in income

the effects of public r d subsidies on firms innovation activities the case of eastern germany this study analyzes the effects of public r d policy schemes on the innovation activities of firms in eastern germany the main question in this context is whether public funds stimulate r d activities or simply crowd out privately financed r d empirically we investigate the average causal effects of all public r d schemes in eastern germany using a nonparametric matching approach compared to the case in which no public financial means are provided it turns out that firms increase their innovation activities by about four percentage points

great expectations and the end of the depression what ended the great depression in the united states this paper suggests that the recovery was driven by a shift in expectations this shift was triggered by president franklin delano roosevelt s fdr policy actions on the monetary policy side roosevelt abolished the gold standard and announced an explicit policy objective of inflating the price level to pre depression levels on the fiscal policy side roosevelt expanded real and deficit spending which helped make his policy objective credible the key to the recovery was the successful management of expecta tions about future policy roosevelt s rise to power is modeled as a policy regime change as in thomas sargent 1983 and peter temin and barry wigmore 1990 this paper formalizes temin and wigmore s argu ment in a repeated game setting using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium dsge model and argues that the regime change can account for the recovery in the model a regime change means the elimination of certain policy dogmas that constrain the actions of the government the regime change generates an endogenous shift in expectations due to a coordination of mon etary and fiscal policy this coordination ended the great depression by engineering a shift in expectations from contractionary i e the private sector expected future economic contrac tion and deflation to expansionary i e the public expected future economic expansion and inflation the expectation of higher future inflation lowered real interest rates thus stimulating demand while the expectation of higher future income stimulated demand by raising permanent income

portfolio choice with non expected utility in continuous time non expected utility preferences which can distinguish intertemporal substitution from attitudes towards risk are extended to continuous time the consumption savings and portfolio problem is solved for constant intertemporal elasticity of substitution and constant relative risk aversion

r d and subsidies at the firm level an application of parametric and semi parametric two step selection models this paper analyzes the effects of public r d subsidies on r d expenditure in the german manufacturing sector the focus is on the question whether public r d funding stimulates or crowds out private investment cross sectional data at the firm level is used by apllying parametric and semiparametric selection models it turns out that public funding increases firms r d expenditure altough the magnitude of the treatment effect depends on the assumpions imposed by the particular selection model

inflation expectations real rates and risk premia evidence from inflation swaps this paper develops a model of the term structures of nominal and real interest rates driven by state variables representing the short term real interest rate expected inflation inflation s central tendency and four volatility factors that follow garch processes we derive analytical solutions for nominal bond yields yields on inflation indexed bonds that have an indexation lag and the term structure of expected inflation unlike prior studies the model s parameters are estimated using data on inflation swap rates as well as nominal yields and survey forecasts of inflation the volatility state variables fully determine bonds time varying risk premia and allow for stochastic volatility and correlation between bond yields yet they have small effects on the cross section of nominal yields allowing for time varying volatility is particularly important for real interest rate and expected inflation processes but long horizon real and inflation risk premia are relatively stable

the tips treasury bond puzzle we show that the price of a treasury bond and an inflation swapped treasury inflation protected securities tips issue exactly replicating the cash flows of the treasury bond can differ by more than 20 per 100 notional treasury bonds are almost always overvalued relative to tips total tips treasury mispricing has exceeded 56 billion representing nearly 8 of the total amount of tips outstanding we find direct evidence that the mispricing narrows as additional capital flows into the markets this provides strong support for the slow moving capital explanation of arbitrage persistence

job dissatisfaction of the self employed in indonesia in developed countries the self employed have been found to be more satisfied with their jobs than paid employees we found the exact opposite for a developing country after analyzing 8732 respondents in the indonesian family life survey the job dissatisfaction of the self employed was not fully explained by earnings personal traits job characteristics anticipation or adaptation but mostly by segregation into a small number of industries with few job benefits this finding is consistent with the dual labor market theory we also found that among the self employed those with the highest probability of being paid employees were the least satisfied paid employment was highly sought after in developing countries and these were presumably self employed workers with high abilities this finding cannot be explained by the dual labor market theory alone to explain this inconsistency we enriched this theory with relative deprivation our results suggest that the existence of the dual labor market and relative deprivation are important determinants of the job satisfaction of the self employed in developing countries

from the editors common method variance in international business research jibs receives many manuscripts that report findings from analyzing survey data based on same respondent replies this can be problematic since same respondent studies can suffer from common method variance cmv currently authors who submit manuscripts to jibs that appear to suffer from cmv are asked to perform validity checks and resubmit their manuscripts this letter from the editors is designed to outline the current state of best practice for handling cmv in international business research

micro entrepreneurship and subjective well being evidence from rural bangladesh abstract microcredit has long been hailed as a powerful tool to promote livelihoods and reduce poverty through entrepreneurship however its impacts on people s subjective well being remain underexplored we present a unified theoretical framework for analyzing the effect of microcredit enabled entrepreneurship on overall life satisfaction a key manifestation of subjective well being empirically we apply an instrumental variable approach to a unique census like household survey conducted in three villages of bangladesh in 2013 in spite of having no direct effects we find that microcredit borrowing has an indirect negative effect on overall life satisfaction through increased worry on a positive note we find that female micro borrowers experience an increase in satisfaction with financial security and achievement in life we also provide evidence that micro borrowers with higher levels of assets experience an increase in satisfaction with financial security

how does the spirit of capitalism affect stock market prices bakshi and chen 1996 suggest that the spirit of capitalism affects stock prices by increasing society s aversion to risk in this article i show that the way in which the spirit of capitalism impinges upon asset prices depends on the interaction of impatience willingness to substitute over time and ordinal preferences between consumption and status in addition to risk aversion i develop a general model that charts the channels through which the spirit of capitalism affects asset prices an increase in the capitalist spirit may increase or decrease risk aversion and may actually decrease the prices of risky assets article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

inventories as factors of production and economic fluctuations this paper presents a theory of inventory investment by stage of processing and uses it to examine the role of inventory investment in economic fluctuations the model in which inventories are treated as factors of production is estimated for four durable goods industries three conclusions emerge from the estimation first the estimates generally satisfy the theoretical restrictions second the elasticity of inventory demand with respect to output is high indicating an important accelerator effect finally the estimates suggest that shifts in the demand for inventories are an important source of economic fluctuations copyright 1989 by american economic association

the great depression versus the great recession in the u s how fiscal monetary and financial polices compare abstract this study reviews the financial distress that triggered and amplified the financial crises of the great depression and great recession and compares macroeconomic and financial policy responses shadow banking funded the build up of the financial excesses that preceded both the quicker and forceful response of monetary and fiscal policy during the great recession and stronger action to restore market functionality mitigated the downturn and aided recovery nevertheless actions to address the mortgage debt overhang were slower post depression reforms focused on preventing deposit runs and post great recession reforms on preventing runs on bank debt and shadow banks while boosting capital buffers

constant increasing and decreasing risk aversion with many commodities the arrow 1971 pratt 1964 theory of risk aversion has achieved important successes in the study of economic responses to risk this theory applies to a special class of cases in which the von neumann morgenstern expected utility hypothesis is used to explain these responses under this hypothesis individuals who maximize the expected utility of different utility functions will in general make different choices in the face of uncertainty for the purpose of predicting which of two different utility functions will lead to locally more risk averse economic behaviour the essential feature of these functions is their associated arrow pratt absolute risk aversion measures in fact the local comparisons can be extended to global comparisons if the arrow pratt absolute measures are uniformly comparable the arrow pratt measure of absolute risk aversion and a closely related measure of relative risk aversion also play crucial roles in the investigation of changes induced by wealth increases in the risk taking behaviour of a single expected utility maximizing individual this study has resulted in a satisfactory theory of increasing decreasing and constant absolute and relative risk aversion the special cases to which the arrow pratt theory is directly applicable are those in which the utility functions in question are functions of a single variable e g wealth unfortunately the models required to explain many economic decisions employ a version of the expected utility hypothesis in which the argument of the utility function is a multidimensional vector one example arises in the study of the consumption savings decision another occurs in the analysis of the combined consumption savings portfolio decision a final example is obtained in the investigation of demand for goods of uncertain quality the papers of kihlstrom mirman 1974 and diamond stiglitz 1974 have suggested a partial generalization of the arrow pratt theory of absolute risk aversion this

quantifying the risk of deflation we propose formal and quantitative measures of the risk that future inflation will be excessively high or low relative to the range preferred by a private sector agent unlike alternative measures of risk our measures are designed to make explicit the dependence of risk measures on the private sector agent s preferences with respect to inflation we illustrate our methodology by estimating the risks of deflation for the united states germany and japan for horizons of up to 2 years the question of how large these risks are has been subject to considerable public debate we find that as of september 2002 when this question first arose there was no evidence of substantial deflation risks for the united states and for germany contrary to some conjectures at the time in contrast there was evidence of substantial deflation risks in japan

self employment in the eu quality work precarious work or both this paper estimates the differences in earnings between self employed and employees in the eu using the european union statistics on income and living conditions data and quantile regression methods it finds that in both eastern and western europe self employment pays more than regular employment only for workers at the top of the earnings distribution and considerably less than regular employment for those below the median these differences are smaller in eastern europe reflecting lower protection of regular employees this pattern is not driven by low skilled workers and it can be observed in both high skilled and low skilled occupations results are robust to accounting for differences in taxation hours worked and individual unobserved characteristics the evidence provided points to the lack of protective rights for the self employed and low earnings at the beginning of the self employment spells as the main explanations for lower earnings for the majority of self employed

the consumption based capital asset pricing model the paper provides conditions on the primitives of a continuous time economy under which there exist equilibria obeying the consumption based capital asset pricing model ccapm the paper also extends the equilibrium characterization of interest rates of cox ingersoll and ross 1985 to multi agent economies we do not use a markovian state assumption this work provides sufficient conditions on agents primitives for the validity of the consumption based capital asset pricing model ccapm of breeden 1979 as a necessary condition breeden showed that in a continuous time equilibrium satisfying certain regularity conditions one can characterize returns on securities as follows the expected instantaneous rate of return on any security in excess of the riskless interest rate the security s expected excess rate of return is a multiple common to all securities of the instantaneous covariance of this excess return with aggregate consumption increments this common multiple is the arrow pratt measure of risk aversion of a representative agent rubinstein 1976 published a discrete time precursor of this result the exis tence of equilibria satisfying breeden s regularity conditions had been an open issue we also show that the validity of the ccapm does not depend on breeden s assumption of markov state information and present a general asset pricing model extending the results of cox ingersoll and ross 1985 as well as the discrete time results of rubinstein 1976 and lucas 1978 to a multi agent environment since the ccapm was first proposed much effort has been directed at finding sufficient conditions on the model primitives the given assets the agents preferences the agents consumption endowments and in a production econ omy the feasible production sets conditions sufficient for the existence of continuous time equilibria were shown in duffie 1986 but the equilibria demonstrated were not shown to satisfy the additional regularity required for the ccapm in particular breeden assumed that all agents choose pointwise interior consumption rates in order to characterize asset prices via the first order conditions of the bellman equation interiority was also assumed by huang 1987 in demonstrating a representative agent characterization of equilibrium an approach exploited here the use of dynamic programming and the bellman equation aside from the difficulty it imposes in verifying the existence of interior 1 financial support from the national science foundation is gratefully acknowledged we thank

determinants of satisfaction for entrepreneurs this study considers the extent to which entrepreneurs are satisfied with their businesses in their third year of business ownership entrepreneurial satisfaction might be viewed as a basic measure of performance it may bear upon decisions by individual entrepreneurs about whether to invest more time and money whether to cut back or whether to close down it may also influence whether entrepreneurs work effectively with their customers and employees for researchers the investigation of why in particular settings some entrepreneurs may be more satisfied than others may aid in the interpretation of past research which has used this as a performance measure this research draws upon a theoretical framework used in investigations of employee satisfaction called discrepancy theory it suggests that individual satisfaction is determined in part by whether there is a gap between actual rewards or performance and the individual s goals or expectations in this research it was hypothesized that entrepreneurs emphasizing primarily noneconomic goals such as doing the work they wanted to do would have higher satisfaction when the business was experiencing lower levels of performance for higher levels of performance there would be no difference in essence the satisfaction of those emphasizing economic goals would vary more with economic performance a related hypothesis was that for this sample of start up firms many of which would be experiencing low levels of performance those emphasizing noneconomic goals would have higher average levels of satisfaction this was based upon the expectation that many start up firms would be experiencing marginal performance so that the gap between goals and performance would be greater for economically oriented entrepreneurs the research also focused upon expectations because one aspect of discrepancy theory suggests that satisfaction decreases if there is a gap between expectations and performance accordingly it was hypothesized that controlling for performance entrepreneurs with higher initial expectations would subsequently have lower levels of satisfaction previous research suggests that membership in particular demographic groups may influence expectations this led to hypotheses that older entrepreneurs female entrepreneurs and minority entrepreneurs would have lower levels of initial expectations this in turn may influence later satisfaction thus it was hypothesized that controlling for performance entrepreneurs in each of these groups would have higher satisfaction because their initial expectations would be lower the study utilized a sample of 287 entrepreneurs who were followed over a 3 year period the data on predictors of satisfaction were gathered in year 1 when the average owner had been in business for 11 months the satisfaction measures were gathered 2 years later by that time there should have been some stabilization in the routines of the business and the entrepreneur could reflect upon historic performance and experiences in judging the extent to which business ownership had been satisfying the data were analyzed primarily using path analysis in which it was hypothesized that certain variables would have both direct and indirect effects upon satisfaction it was found that the satisfaction of entrepreneurs emphasizing economic goals was not more sensitive to economic performance at least within the range of performance considered in this sample for this group of firms many of which appeared to be experiencing marginal performance those emphasizing noneconomic goals did express higher levels of satisfaction it had been expected that those with higher initial expectations would later be less satisfied because they would have a greater expectation performance gap however the opposite was found those who were more optimistic initially were more satisfied later even when controlling for performance demographic influences on initial expectations were examined contrary to expectations none of the demographic traits was significantly related to initial assessment of likelihood of success older entrepreneurs women entrepreneurs and minority entrepreneurs were just as optimistic as those in other groups the relationship between membership in these demographic groups and later satisfaction was also examined no significant relationships were found for older entrepreneurs and minority entrepreneurs however there was some evidence p 07 that women entrepreneurs were more satisfied with business ownership two of the most interesting findings were those related to initial expectations and to women entrepreneurs contrary to discrepancy theory those who had higher initial expectations were later more satisfied not less this may suggest as staw and ross 1985 found in a longitudinal study of employee satisfaction that attitudes are in part a function of stable individual traits those who had a positive view of their initial prospects later viewed the experience of business ownership more favorably regardless of subsequent performance for women entrepreneurs the higher levels of satisfaction may reflect a view that they have fewer attractive alternatives it may also be that they discover greater relative satisfaction from the day to day aspects of business ownership for entrepreneurs and their advisors the findings suggest that particular goals attitudes and backgrounds are likely to be associated with greater satisfaction this may influence whether entrepreneurs stay with marginal businesses for researchers the study provides insight into discrepancy theory by considering its application to entrepreneurs rather than the hired employees normally studied in addition subjective measures of performance such as satisfaction have often been used in previous research on entrepreneurial performance this study casts light on why in particular settings some entrepreneurs may be more satisfied than others

marshallian recursive preferences and growth abstract although alfred marshall adhered to the classical doctrine of impatience he thought that the act of saving might itself confer utility we model this by making the discount factor a function of savings in addition to providing an intuitive rationale for increasing marginal impatience marshallian time preference has interesting implications for macroeconomics marshallian preferences lower interest rates by stimulating savings paradoxically it is possible for a tax cut to lower interest rates in a marshallian economy in a growth model with marshallian consumers a permanent increase in government expenditures causes super crowding out of consumption and reduces the steady state capital stock

the spirit of capitalism asset pricing and growth in a small open economy abstract conventional models of economic behavior have failed to account for a number of observed empirical regularities in macroeconomics and international economics this may be due to preference specifications in conventional models in this paper we consider preferences with the spirit of capitalism the desire to accumulate wealth as a way of acquiring status we analyze a number of potential effects of international catching up and the spirit of capitalism on savings growth portfolio allocation and asset pricing moreover we obtain a multi factor capital asset pricing model capm our results show that status concerns have non trivial effects on savings growth portfolio allocation asset prices and the foreign exchange risk premium

the spirit of capitalism and optimal capital taxation abstract the paper reexamines the famous chamley judd zero capital tax theorem in model economies where the agents are endowed with the spirit of capitalism it is shown that the limiting capital income tax is not zero in general and depends on the utility specifications rather than the production technology the similar formulas of optimal capital taxes are derived in more general settings with multiple physical capitals or heterogeneous agents capitalists and workers

establishment size job satisfaction and the structure of work this paper empirically investigates a the relationship between establishment size and the degree of flexibility in the work environment and b the extent to which establishment size differences in workers satisfaction with their jobs can be accounted for by differences in their work environment the main findings are that large establishments do organize production in a less flexible fashion than do smaller establishments and that observed lower levels of job satisfaction in larger establishments net of wage and fringe benefit effects can largely be explained by the inflexibility in the work environment

inflation targeting a new framework for monetary policy he world s central bankers and their staffs meet regularly in venues from basle to washington to share ideas and discuss common problems perhaps these frequent meetings help explain why changes in the tactics and strategy of monetary policymaking such as the adoption of money growth targets in the 1970s the intensification of efforts to reduce inflation in the 1980s and the recent push for increased institutional independence for central banks tend to occur in many countries more or less simultaneously whatever their source major changes in the theory and practice of central banking are of great importance for both individual countries and the international economy in this article we discuss a new strategy for monetary policy known as inflation targeting which has sparked much interest and debate among central bankers and monetary economists in recent years this approach is characterized as the name suggests by the announcement of official target ranges for the inflation rate at one or more horizons and by explicit acknowledgment that low and stable inflation is the overriding goal of monetary policy other important features of inflation targeting include increased communication with the public about the plans and objectives of the monetary policymakers and in many cases increased accountability of the central bank

an intertemporal general equilibrium asset pricing model the case of diffusion information this paper provides sufficient conditions for the equilibrium price system and a vector of exogenously specified state variable processes to form a diffusion process in a pure exchange economy the conditions involve smoothness of agents utility functions and certain nice properties of the aggregate endowment process and the dividend processes of traded assets in place of the dynamic programming a martingale representation technique is utilized to characterize equilibrium portfolio policies this technique is useful even when there does not exist a finite dimensional markov structure in the economy and thus the markovian stochastic dynamic programming is not applicable a gents are shown to hold certain hedging mutual funds and the riskless asset in contrast to earlier results the market portfolio does not have a special role in hedging since the markets are dynamically complete when there exists a finite dimensional markov system in the economy the dimension of the hedging demand identified through the markovian dynamic programming may be much larger than that identified by the martingale method copyright 1987 by the econometric society

the eurozone expected inflation an option s eyes view abstract we estimate inflation risk neutral densities rnds in the euro area using inflation swaps and caps floors options and introduce a parsimonious approach to jointly estimate the rnds across horizons thus we obtain daily implicit rnds for forward measures such as the 5 year on 5 year inflation rate which although not directly traded in the market is a key reference for monetary policy then we discuss several indicators derived from the information content of those historical rnds that are relevant for policy makers and compare them in light of the ecb s decisions and communication since 2009 specifically we study the evolution of tail risks associated with deflation and high inflation the balance of inflation risks risk aversion and how forward inflation rates react to the ecb s non conventional monetary policies longer term refinancing operations ltro securities market programme smp asset purchase programme app and its variants and extensions

grit and self employment a multi country study blending the literatures on grit and self employment we propose the role of grit in separating the self employed from the employed based on a sample of 13 210 respondents from nine countries our results indicate that not only is grit related to self employment but also grit is more strongly related to self employment for risk takers females and younger individuals the findings are robust controlling for several individual characteristics and alternate specifications and have implications for the broader literature on self employment

better late than nothing some comments on deaton 2009 and heckman and urzua 2009 two recent papers deaton 2009 and heckman and urzua 2009 argue against what they see as an excessive and inappropriate use of experimental and quasi experimental methods in empirical work in economics in the last decade they specifically question the increased use of instrumental variables and natural experiments in labor economics and of randomized experiments in development economics in these comments i will make the case that this move towards shoring up the internal validity of estimates and towards clarifying the description of the population these estimates are relevant for has been important and beneficial in increasing the credibility of empirical work in economics i also address some other concerns raised by the deaton and heckman urzua papers

inflation expectations and risk premiums in an arbitrage free model of nominal and real bond yields differences between yields on comparable maturity u s treasury nominal and real debt the so called breakeven inflation bei rates are widely used indicators of inflation expectations however better measures of inflation expectations could be obtained by subtracting inflation risk premiums from the bei rates we provide such decompositions using an estimated affine arbitrage free model of the term structure that captures the pricing of both nominal and real treasury securities our empirical results suggest that long term inflation expectations have been well anchored over the past few years and inflation risk premiums although volatile have been close to zero on average

feasibility and transversality conditions for models of portfolio choice with non expected utility in continuous time abstract this note explores the feasibility and transversality conditions for the continuous time consumption portfolio problem with generalized isoelastic gie preferences unlike the case of time separable preferences the transversality condition usually is neither necessary nor sufficient for the feasibility condition to be satisfied furthermore ordinally equivalent representations of gie preferences produce different transversality conditions

fitting observed inflation expectations abstract the paper provides evidence on the extent to which inflation expectations generated by a standard christiano et al 2005 smets and wouters 2003 type dsge model are in line with what observed in the data we consider three variants of this model that differ in terms of the behavior of and the public s information on the central banks inflation target allegedly a key determinant of inflation expectations we find that i time variation in the inflation target is needed to capture the evolution of expectations during the post volcker period ii the variant where agents have imperfect information is strongly rejected by the data iii inflation expectations appear to contain information that is not present in the other series used in estimation and iv none of the models fully capture the dynamics of this variable

the term structure of inflation expectations we use information in the term structure of survey based forecasts of inflation to estimate a factor hidden in the nominal yield curve we construct a model that accommodates forecasts over multiple horizons from multiple surveys and treasury real and nominal yields by allowing for differences between risk neutral subjective and objective probability measures we establish that model based inflation expectations are driven by inflation output and one latent factor we find that this factor affects inflation expectations at all horizons but has almost no effect on the nominal yields that is the latent factor is hidden we show that this hidden factor is not related to either current and past inflation or the standard set of macro variables studied in the literature consistent with the theoretical property of a hidden factor our model outperforms a standard macro finance model in its forecasting of inflation and yields

prices during the great depression was the deflation of 1930 1932 really unanticipated this paper examines inflationary expectations in order to investigate whether the deflation of 1930 32 could have been anticipated the major conclusion is that beginning in late 1930 and possibly as early as late 1929 deflation could have been anticipated at horizons of three six months this implies in turn that short run ex ante real interest rates were very high during the initial phases of the great depression these results provide further support for the proposition that monetary contraction was the driving force behind the economic decline copyright 1992 by american economic association

inflation dynamics and subjective expectations in the united states i introduction this paper analyzes the ability of sticky price models to explain the dynamics of u s inflation when using survey data as proxies for inflation expectations testing sticky price models with survey expectations is attractive since to the extent that survey data correctly capture agents expectations they allow to disregard issues related to the specification of agents expectations functions one neither has to impose untested orthogonality restrictions as required when estimating under the assumption of rational expectations nor has to make restrictive assumptions about the precise form of nonrationality present in agents forecast functions this allows to focus on the question whether the economic models under consideration are correctly specified previous tests of sticky price models performed under the assumption that agents hold rational expectations have generated mixed results prominently fuhrer and moore 1995 have reported that sticky price models do not generate sufficient stickiness for inflation when the output gap is used as a measure of real marginal costs recent evidence however has shown that the empirical performance depends crucially on how one measures real marginal costs the main determinant of inflation according to sticky price models for instance gall and gertler 1999 and sbordone 2002 show that sticky price models perform well once marginal costs are approximated by average unit labor costs 1 it makes an important difference whether sticky price models successfully explain inflation dynamics as a function of output behavior or they relate inflation dynamics to the behavior of unit labor costs given that the ultimate objective is a model explaining the joint behavior of output and inflation the latter case would require an additional empirically plausible theory linking the dynamics of unit labor costs to the behavior of output this paper studies whether the currently popular new keynesian phillips curve nkpc which can be derived from calvo 1983 style sticky price models is able to explain a relationship between inflation on the one hand and output or unit labor costs on the other hand thus we let the data speak whether a theory linking output to costs is warranted once expectations are approximated by data reported in the survey of professional forecasters our main finding is that the nkpc performs equally well with both measures of marginal costs output and unit labor costs whatever measure is used the estimate of the quarterly discount factor is close to one and the point estimate of the degree of price stickiness implies that firms reset their prices roughly every five quarters on average these results suggest that potential nonrationalities in expectations as they show up in surveys have biased previous estimates using output as a measure for marginal costs quite surprisingly the same nonrationalities do not seem to play a role when using unit labor costs here our estimates confirm the results obtained by gall and gertler 1999 and sbordone 2002 who assumed rational expectations we show that the reason for this finding is that approximating the agents information set using the unit labor cost variable rests on more solid grounds than approximating it using the output variable in particular the survey data suggest that the hypothesis of rational expectations implies a too high correlation between lagged output and future inflation expectations we show that this causes the coefficient estimate for output to become negative contrary to what is implied by theory these results suggest that once one takes account of potentially nonrational expectations via survey expectations sticky price models are able to establish a close link between output dynamics and the behavior of inflation to assess the robustness of this finding we include into the price equation lags of various variables and test for their significance

the economics of options implied inflation probability density functions recently a market in options based on cpi in ation in ation caps and oors has emerged in the us this paper uses quotes on these derivatives to construct probability densities for in ation we study how these pdfs respond to news announcements and nd that the implied odds of de ation are sensitive to certain macroeconomic news releases we compare the option implied probability densities with those obtained by time series methods and use this information to construct empirical pricing kernels the options implied densities assign considerably more mass to extreme in ation outcomes either de ation or high in ation than do their time series counterparts this yields a u shaped empirical pricing kernel with investors having high marginal utility in states of the world characterized by either de ation or high in ation

why inflation rose and fell policy makers beliefs and u s postwar stabilization policy this paper provides an explanation for the run up of u s inflation in the 1960s and 1970s and the sharp disinflation in the early 1980s which standard macroeconomic models have difficulties in addressing i present a model in which rational policymakers learn about the behavior of the economy in real time and set stabilization policy optimally conditional on their current beliefs the steady state associated with the self confirming equilibrium of the model is characterized by low inflation however prolonged episodes of high inflation ending with rapid disinflations can occur when policymakers underestimate both the natural rate of unemployment and the persistence of inflation in the phillips curve i estimate the model using likelihood methods the estimation results show that the model accounts remarkably well for the evolution of policymakers beliefs stabilization policy and the postwar behavior of inflation and unemployment in the united states

the spirit of capitalism and stock market prices in existing theory wealth is no more valuable than its implied consumption rewards in reality investors acquire wealth not just for its implied consumption but for the resulting social status max m weber 1958 refers to this desire for wealth as the spirit of capitalism the authors examine both analytically and empirically implications of weber s hypothesis for consumption savings and stock prices when investors care about relative social status propensity to consume and risk taking behavior will depend on social standards and stock prices will be volatile the spirit of capitalism seems to be a driving force behind stock market volatility and economic growth copyright 1996 by american economic association

stock market wealth and consumption this paper explores the link between changes in the aggregate value of corporate stock and changes in consumer spending it presents data on the distribution of corporate stock ownership based on the 1998 survey of consumer finances it also uses time series evidence on the comovement of stock market wealth and various categories of consumer spending to calibrate the wealth effect it concludes that in the year after a change in stock market values consumer spending is likely to rise by between one and two cents for each dollar increase in the value of corporate stock

the case of the negative nominal interest rates new estimates of the term structure of interest rates during the great depression throughout the 1930s and early 1940s u s treasury bonds and notes appeared to have negative nominal yields as they approached maturity but negative nominal interest rates are impossible in a world in which one can always hold cash the resolution to this puzzle is that treasury securities in addition to making coupon payments gave the owner the right to buy a new security on a future date this paper describes the institutional environment that led to the apparent negative nominal interest rates develops a method for valuing the exchange privilege and computes accurate measures of the yield to the coupon bearing component of these composite bond options these corrected bond and not yields are then used to calculate new estimates of the term structure of interest rates from 1929 to 1949