inefficient credit booms this paper studies the welfare properties of competitive equilibria in an economy with financial frictions hit by aggregate shocks in particular it shows that competitive financial contracts can result in excessive borrowing ex ante and excessive volatility ex post even though from a first best perspective the equilibrium always displays under borrowing from a second best point of view excessive borrowing can arise the inefficiency is due to the combination of limited commitment in financial contracts and the fact that asset prices are determined in a spot market this generates a pecuniary externality that is not internalized in private contracts the model provides a framework to evaluate preventive policies which can be used during a credit boom to reduce the expected costs of a financial crisis copyright 2008 wiley blackwell

nonmonetary effects of the financial crisis in propagation of the great depression this paper examines the effects of the financial crisis of the 1930s onthe path of aggregate output during that period our approach is complementary to that of friedman and schwartz who emphasized the monetary impact of the bank failures we focus on non monetary primarily credit related aspects of the financial sector output link and consider the problems of debtors as well as those of the banking system we argue that the financial disruptions of 1930 33 reduced the efficiency of the credit allocation process and that the resulting higher cost and reduced availability of credit acted to depress aggregate demand evidence suggests that effects of this type can help explain the unusual length and depth of the great depression this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

consequences of bank distress during the great depression the consequences of bank distress for the economy during the depression remain an area of unresolved controversy since john m keynes 1931 and irving fisher 1933 macroeconomists have argued that bank distress magnified the extent of the economic decline during the depression as the intermediaries controlling money and credit banks were in a special position to transmit their distress to other sectors but the mechanism through which banking distress mattered for the economy has been hotly contested milton friedman and anna j schwartz 1963 saw the contraction in the money multiplier driven in their view by panicked depositors withdrawals of deposits as the primary mechanism through which banking distress affected the real economy they described the mechanism transmitting banking distress to the real sector as operating at the national level through changes in the aggregate supply of money and interest rates bank distress reduced the money supply available to the public either through the closure of banks and the consequent freezing of bank deposits or the withdrawals of deposits by depositors that feared bank failure ben s bernanke 1983 building on fisher 1933 emphasized the transmission of monetary shocks via their effects on the balance sheets of borrowers and on the supply of credit by banks borrowers balance sheets were worsened by debt deflation as the result of fixed dollar debt obligations borrowers net worth and cash flow declined with the rising value of debt service costs relative to income borrowers with positive net present value projects but weak balance sheets had less internally generated retained earnings to invest and could not qualify for credit furthermore bernanke argued that the contraction of the money supply produced contraction of nominal income and prices relative to fixed debt service which weakened borrowers balance sheets and in turn weakened banks not only did firms financial distress reduce the number of qualified borrowers the contraction in banks net worth forced a reduction in the supply of bank loans to qualified borrowers many firms and individuals relied on banks for credit and as those banks suffered losses of capital due to asset value declines and contractions in deposits as depositors reacted to bank weakness by withdrawing their funds even borrowers with viable projects and strong balance sheets experienced a decrease in the effective supply of loanable funds bernanke termed the combined weakening of borrowers balance sheets and the contraction in bank credit supply a rise in the cost of credit intermediation the scarcity of perfect substitutes for the positive net present value investments of firms with weak balance sheets and for the credit supplied by existing banks implies that the weakening of firms and banks balance sheets the disappearance of banks and the contraction in surviving banks lending made it more difficult for the economy to channel funds to their best use thus what began as a contraction in aggregate demand became a contraction in aggregate supply which magnified adverse economic shocks and prolonged and deepened the depression the financial distress of firms and banks and the decline in bank lending were not only symptoms of the depression but means for magnifying the shocks that caused the depression bernanke s statistical evidence in support of this story is derived from time series analysis at the national level in calomiris graduate school of business 601 uris hall columbia university 3022 broadway new york ny 10027 and national bureau of economic research e mail cc374 columbia edu mason department of finance drexel university 3141 chestnut street philadelphia pa 19104 e mail joe mason drexel edu we thank valerie ramey david wheelock charles himmelberg steve zeldes gary gorton two referees and seminar participants at columbia university wharton northwestern university and the 2001 economic history association meetings for helpful comments on an earlier draft we gratefully acknowledge support from the national science foundation the university of illinois and the federal reserve bank of st louis

how might nature value man abstract while much time and effort is spent attempting to quantify environmental services for inclusion in the economic system no one seems to ask how nature might value us an ecological accounting process is devised to accommodate ecosystem flows allowing for the computation of ecological prices and leading to the calculation of net ecosystem output and the efficiency of its production the process is somewhat similar to economic accounting but allows us to consider the ecosystem as open conforming to thermodynamic laws examples such as intervention to reduce soil erosion illustrate how humans might be appreciated by the ecosystem in some instances the net output might be higher with some human presence than with no human presence

organizing the global value chain a firm level test in this paper we study the organization of global value chains on a sample of about 4 000 manufacturing parent companies operating more than 90 000 affiliates on a global scale which chose to integrate at least once in the period 2004 2012 assuming a technological sequence of production stages a recent property rights framework antra s and chor 2013 alfaro et al 2015 predicts that a choice of vertical integration is crucially based on both the position of a supplier along the chain and on the relative size of demand elasticities faced by the final producer and the supplier we positively test whether if final demand is sufficiently elastic inelastic producers of final goods integrate production stages that are more proximate to far from the consumers however this is not valid for cases of midstream parents i e for producers of intermediate inputs that can integrate either backward or forward along the chain we document that midstream are at least as common as are downstream parent companies but that existing theory neglects them in these cases we find that demand elasticities do not play a significant role in integration choices interestingly both midstream and downstream parents tend to integrate affiliates that are more proximate in segments of a supply chain our findings point to a role for technological determinants that may be as important as are contracting frictions in organizing global value chains

how do banks respond to shocks a dynamic model of deposit taking institutions abstract this paper proposes a dynamic model of the optimal choices of a bank that benefits from market power and takes into account the impact of the deposit generation process interbank lending borrowing emerges as a buffer that assists the bank in smoothing intertemporal adjustments in interdependent loan and deposit choices the bank smooths the impact of interest rates shocks on its customers to minimize the adjustments over time of the stocks of deposits and loans it does not however provide insurance against negative shocks of real origin that increase its expected default costs the predictions of the model help to shed light on the available empirical evidence and to analyze some recent developments of the banking industry

on the use of ecological prices and system wide indicators derived therefrom to quantify man s impact on the ecosystem abstract ecological prices and other system wide quantitative descriptors of ecosystem functioning are derived from the assumption that ecosystems allocate available resources efficiently among their components however ecological prices are not efficiency prices only and using them does not require one to assume that the ecosystem is completely controlled by man the same prices balance flows of different biomasses in a multicomponent system as such they play the role of exchange prices in a decentralized ecosystem properly defined with the help of ecological prices the resulting ecosystem productivity is no less a significant indicator of ecosystem functioning than the national product is significant for assessing the functioning of an economy considerations of the values taken simultaneously by our proposed indicators and by their economic analogs are of much help in judging the desirability of projects with relatively mild environmental repercussions these values are obtained from an integrated model of a system in which ecological and economic activities are intertwined however for the indicators to have an analytical meaning the methodology should be applied to trace only those dynamic paths during which the system possesses unique state dependent intensive properties in other cases a more comprehensive methodology one which also pays due regard to the viability of the ecosystem must supplement the analytical approach this rather comprehensive methodology is scale dependent and probabilistic in nature while delineating relations between the structure of the system and its behavior this method implies that efficiency and viability are two complementary rather than two commensurate attributes of a single entity an outside observer may be guided by his own values in his attempts to weigh these features but no inherent property of the system exists that supports his values unequivocally nevertheless this paper proposes an approximation to overcome this difficulty and to estimate a quantitative limit to the rate of substitution between productivity and viability such a limit is also an intensive property of the simulated system and the estimation of its value is shown to be crucial for studying the vulnerability of real ecosystems to severe man made disturbances

prudential regulation and the credit crunch evidence from japan the underlying causes of sharp declines in bank lending during recessions in large developed economies as exemplified by the u s in the early 1990s and japan in the late 1990s are still being debated due to the lack of any convincing identification strategy of the supply side capital lending relationship from lending demand using within bank share of real estate lending in the late 1980s as an instrumental variable for bank capital we find that japanese banks cut back on their lending in response to a large loss of bank capital in fiscal year 1997

the determinants of fdi location choice in china a discrete choice analysis this study addresses two questions what are the determinants of foreign direct investment fdi location choice in china what are the factors that determine investors choice between economic zo

zombie lending and depressed restructuring in japan this paper explores the role that misdirected bank lending played in prolonging the japanese macroeconomic stagnation that began in the early 1990s the investigation focuses on the wide spread practice of japanese banks of continuing to lend to otherwise insolvent firms we docu ment the prevalence of this forbearance lending and show its distorting effects on healthy firms that were competing with the impaired firms the paper by hoshi 2000 was the first to call attention to this phenomenon and its ramifi

commensuration and theories of value in ecological economics abstract without a theory of value price in ecological economics the valuation of ecosystem and economic resources cannot be rigorously defended at the crux of the matter is the valuation or mixed units problem of commensurating biophysical inputs outputs which are different this paper critically reviews candidate theories of value which have emerged in the ecological economics literature for dealing with this problem first of all the neo ricardian approach using sraffa type systems is discussed in particular judson s assertion that the sraffa system is suitable for ecological economics is questioned as it is based on circular flow generation of a surplus and exchange values none of these ideas are consistent with a biophysical characterisation of an economic system which is paramount in ecological economics a more fruitful avenue for establishing a biophysical theory of value based on ecological and thermodynamic principles is to extend patterson s quality equivalent methodology qem to explicitly include mass flows in addition to energy at this point a model close to costanza and hannon s biosphere model of price determination emerges the extended qem model however has a number of important advantages over the costanza hannon model because it has a more generalised formulation and is not reliant on necessarily using solar energy as the numeraire the paper concludes with a discussion of some outstanding issues that need to be resolved before a biophysical theory of value can be properly established in ecological economics

natural disasters damage to banks and firm investment this article investigates the effect of banks lending capacity on firms investment to identify exogenous shocks to loan supply we utilize the natural experiment provided by japan s great hanshin awaji earthquake in 1995 using a unique data set that allows us to identify firms and banks in the earthquake affected areas we find that the investment ratio of firms located outside the earthquake affected areas but having a main bank inside the areas was significantly smaller than that of firms located outside the areas and having a main bank outside the areas our findings suggest that loan supply shocks affect firm investment abstract from author

the international transmission of financial shocks the case of japan one of the more dramatic financial events of the late 1980s and early 1990s was the surge in japanese stock prices that was immediately followed by a very sharp decline of more than 50 percent while the unprecedented fluctuations in japanese stock prices were domestic financial shocks the unique institutional characteristics of the japanese economy produce a framework that is particularly suited to the transmission of such shocks to other countries through the behavior of the japanese banking system the large size of japanese bank lending operations in the united states enables us to use u s banking data to investigate the extent to which this domestic japanese financial shock was transmitted to the united states as well as to identify a supply shock to u s bank lending that is independent of u s loan demand we find that binding risk based capital requirements associated with the decline in the japanese stock market resulted in a decline in commercial lending by japanese banks in the united states that was both economically and statistically significant this finding has added importance given the severe real estate loan problems currently faced by japanese banks how japanese bank regulators decide to resolve these problems will have significant implications for credit availability in the united states as well as in other countries with a significant japanese bank presence

endogenous competition and strategic foreign investment direct foreign investment exerts a significant influence on domestic market structure in both developed and emerging economics an increased proportion of international commerce now takes the form of intrafirm trade and much of this trade involves foreign sourcing of production by domestic firms firms with such multinational production are also frequently the dominant firms in their domestic markets 1 several rationales exist for foreign investment and production by domestic firms most involve the effects of some inherent asymmetry between rival firms the possession by one firm of some internal advantage such as proprietary knowledge from research expenditures or superior management and marketing techniques could yield a cost advantage related explanations involve firms reacting to foreign entry in their domestic markets by sourcing labour intensive production abroad differential access to foreign subsidy programs the desire to secure access to a foreign market under the expectation of future import barriers sunk costs of entering a market under random fluctuations in the real exchange rate or a desire to hedge real exchange rate risk through diversification of production locations 2 while these explanations are plausible each relies on the existence of exogenous asymmetries between rival firms or on a corporate aversion to risk and imperfections in financial markets this paper offers a novel explanation for direct foreign investment in terms of its strategic value identical and risk neutral firms may engage in direct foreign investment and the timing of this can endogenously determine domestic market structure when uncertainty exists about production costs in a foreign location and the industry producing for the domestic market is concentrated direct foreign investment and production may occur because uncertainty over the relative costs of production at a foreign plant offers a

the boundaries of multinational enterprises and the theory of international trade this paper begins with a review of empirical evidence on multinational firms conceptual underpinnings of a theory are developed relying in particular on the notion of knowledge capital as a mobile joint input into geographically separated production facilities this idea is embedded in a simple two country general equilibrium model that supports multinational production in equilibrium under conditions consistent with the empirical evidence the final section examines internalization and shows why certain properties of knowledge capital also imply a preference for transferring technologies internally within the firm rather than through arm s length markets

the capital crunch neither a borrower nor a lender be the dramatic reduction in the growth rate of bank lending associated with the 1990 91 recession particularly in new england has evoked claims by many observers of a credit crunch however because of the difficulty in determining whether the observed slow credit growth is a demand or supply phenomenon convincing evidence of the practical importance of credit crunches for economic activity remains elusive we overcome this obstacle by examining a cross section of banks in new england that have experienced the same economic downturn effectively controlling for changes in demand we find empirical support for a capital crunch whereby poorly capitalized institutions shrink to satisfy capital requirements this alone is not a sufficient condition for a credit crunch however we find s6me additional evidence that the ca ital crunch may have limited credit availability in new england

in search of capital crunch supply factors behind the credit slowdown in japan the seeming failure of loose monetary policy to reactivate japan s economy has led some observers to suggest that the usual credit channels through which monetary policy affects the real economy are blocked and this is because of a pervasive shortage of bank capital that has induced a leftward shift in the supply of bank credit this is the so called capital crunch hypothesis this paper finds support for the hypothesis in the bank data for 1997 a year during which the landscape of the japanese financial system underwent some fundamental changes

retrospective on the bubble period and its relationship to developments in the 1990s in reviewing what happened in the 1980s in japan and how the bursting of the bubble created problems in the early 1990s the following conclusions are obtained 1 in order to limit damage to the economy from a bubble and its bursting it is important to build a resilient financial system through strict supervision policy so that asset price fluctuations would not weaken financial institutions supervision policy would include regulatory measures limiting lending concentration and exposure to real estate related sectors 2 monetary policy should pay attention to asset price movements but it may be difficult and inappropriate to raise the interest rate sharply when inflation is low below one per cent like in japan even though asset prices are increasing at 30 40 per cent 3 the official discount rate could have been raised in the summer of 1988 in japan when the federal reserve and bundesbank raised interest rates this would have slowed down the rise of stock and land prices but the bubble was already large by then 4 the bubble in the second half of the 1980s was only partially responsible for the lost decade of the 1990s in japan a series of policy errors made a small problem of the burst bubble much bigger than necessary

economics for sustainable rural systems abstract critics often reproach the discipline of economics for supporting developments that result in environmental and social degradation this article identifies where such censure is valid but proceeds to argue that the rationale underlying economic techniques is at fault rather than the techniques themselves within the rural context we suggest that economics can make a valuable contribution to the design and achievement of sustainable ways of living valid criticism of economics focuses on its assumptions about value since this has led to emphasis of favourable effects of markets and laissez faire policies exposing rural areas to more rigorously competitive market conditions encourage their transformation by increasing mechanisation industrialisation and a less sustainable use of resources new approaches and policies are required if different outcomes are to be achieved an initial step is to identify desirable outcomes a matter of social choice however society makes multiple demands on rural resources and such issues cannot be adequately captured within a neo classical welfare model an alternative hierarchical framework in the tradition of systems thinking capable of analysing the complex relations associated with rural resource use provides appropriate emphasis to the economic links between goals at different levels within the system and appears to have some heuristic value an empirical counterpart of the hierarchical framework input output analysis generates information to support social choices and can also contribute to the understanding of economic systems and their interaction with the wider social cultural ethical and environmental universe the article concludes with some revised economic policy prescriptions to promote rural sustainability

the real effects of banking shocks evidence from oecd countries abstract this paper studies the impact of shocks to banks balance sheets on real economic activity the sample consists of 18 oecd countries observed annually from 1979 to 2003 using the rajan zingales method i find that industries that depend more heavily on external finance respond more strongly to bank income shocks suggesting that banking shocks propagate to the real economy the bank effect lasts for 2 years but it is economically significant mainly for large shocks which are relatively rare similar findings are obtained by comparing durable versus non durable goods and by estimating aggregate bank effects

measures of energy cost and value in ecosystems the physical output of ecological processes have different values even though they may be measured in the same physical units using linear input output theory we derive a set of weights based on direct and indirect energy requirements for ecosystem commodities which uniquely converts them into commensurable unit costs under certain conditions these costs are equal to values or prices using this system behavioral theories can be better posed for experimental verification

credit crunch caused by bank failures and self selection behavior in lending markets this study investigates how bank failures affect the real economy from the lenders perspective using experimental settings of unique bank failures in japan this paper identifies the credit crunch effect by bank failures the main findings are the following first bank failures decrease the investments of the client firms by approximately 30 second the high investment growth level firms deal with unhealthy banks these choices generate a self selection bias of 30 80 third there is no evidence that bank failure shock is related to the firms accessibility to other financial sources

bank capital shocks dynamic effects on securities loans and capital abstract we used quarterly data for individual banks to estimate recent dynamic responses to bank capital shocks while it took bank capital and securities only one year to adjust to capital shocks liabilities and most loan categories took two to three years to complete their adjustments compared with those in the late 1980s capital shocks were twice as large and portfolio responses to capital shocks tended to be more rapid in the early 1990s larger banks adjusted each component of their portfolios faster than smaller banks capital shocks caused banks with capital shortfalls to contract more and more quickly in the 1990s than they had in the 1980s

firm size and foreign operations of multinationals the standard literature on multinationals emphasizes the importance of firm size in explaining foreign direct investment a typical statement for example by caves is that t he relation between direct investment and firm size with other factors held constant has been established statistically 1974 p 280 however descriptions of the role of firm size are often ambiguous as pointed out by hufbauer 1975 and swedenborg 1979 such descriptions do not make a clear distinction between the probability or likelihood that a firm would be a foreign investor and the extent of such investment or as expressed by swedenborg a firm s propensity to operate abroad the share of its production carried on outside its home country a study by horst 1972 which has become the basis for most statements about the importance of firm size dealt only with the probability that a firm would be a foreign investor or more specifically the probability that it would meet the criteria for being considered a multinational firm according to the definition used in the harvard studies including that of having a certain number of overseas operations cf vernon 197 1

did risk based capital allocate bank credit and cause a credit crunch in the united states this paper examines the reallocation of bank credit from loans to securities in the early 1990s using data on virtually all u s banks from 1979 to 1992 the authors investigate implementation of risk based capital and other regulatory and nonregulatory changes as possible causes of a supply driven credit crunch the main empirical implication of these credit crunch hypotheses that the reallocation of credit would be most associated with low capital high risk banks generally is not consistent with the data much of the reallocation is associated with demand side factors but it is difficult to differentiate cleanly among these factors copyright 1994 by ohio state university press

unnatural selection perverse incentives and the misallocation of credit in japan we examine the misallocation of credit in japan associated with the perverse incentives faced by banks to provide additional credit to the weakest firms firms are more likely to receive additional bank credit if they arein poor financial condition because troubled japanese banks have an incentive to allocate credit to severely impaired borrowers in order to avoid the realization of losses on their own balance sheets this evergreening behavior is more prevalent among banks that have reported capital ratios close to the required minimum and is compounded by the incentives arising from extensive corporate affiliations

ecosystem prices activity analysis applied to ecosystems abstract in this paper a method is developed to derive prices for natural goods from information about material and energy flows within ecosystems the derivation is based on an analogy between ecological and economic systems both systems are characterized by flows of material and energy to derive ecosystem prices the mathematical structure of koopman s economic linear production model his activity analysis is applied to a material flow model of ecosystems the ecological interpretation of these prices is discussed and the uniqueness of the price system is investigated an algorithm for price calculation is derived and demonstrated with a numerical example finally it is discussed whether ecosystem prices may be suitable as surrogates for economic valuations of natural goods

shocks to bank capital evidence from uk banks at home and away this article assesses how shocks to bank capital may influence a bank s portfolio behaviour using novel evidence from a uk bank panel data set from a period that predates the recent financial crisis focusing on the behaviour of bank loans we extract the dynamic response of a bank to innovations in its capital and in its regulatory capital buffer we find that innovations in a bank s capital in this precrisis sample period were coupled with a loan response that lasted up to 3 years the international presence of uk banks allows us to identify a specific driver of capital shocks in our data independent of bank lending to uk residents specifically we use write offs on loans to nonresidents to instrument bank capital s impact on uk resident lending a fall in capital brought about a significant drop in lending in particular to private nonfinancial corporations pnfc in contrast household lending increased when capital fell which may indicate that in this precrisis period banks substituted into l

determinants of the internationalization of regions the role and effectiveness of public policy measures banno m piscitello l and varum c determinants of the internationalization of regions the role and effectiveness of public policy measures regional studies this paper assesses the role of public policy measures on outward internationalization of regions by including financial and non financial incentives among the determinants of the international competitiveness of regions it is found that the former are important to enhance their active internationalization but that variables related to the knowledge and competence base of regions are even more so financial incentives related to equity participation as well as non financial incentives related to the provision of information come out highly significant in stimulating outward internationalization the empirical analysis is conducted for the twenty italian nuts 2 regions over the period 2003 2008

environmental economics and ecological economics where they can converge abstract environmental economics and ecological economics share the common objective of understanding the human economy environment interaction in order to redirect the economies towards sustainability in pursuing this objective these two perspectives utilise different types of analytical framework and are opposed to each other on many of the fundamental theoretical and methodological issues while the environmental economics has progressed within a narrowly but sharply focused neoclassical analytical approach the ecological economics has expanded by adopting a diversified approach which led to widen the gap between the two this article makes an attempt to highlight the divergence between these two perspectives on different issues and identifies certain research avenues that would potentially bring convergence between these two perspectives