what is capital economists and sociologists have changed its meaning should it be changed back this is a pre copyedited author produced pdf of an article accepted for publication in cambridge journal of economics following peer review the version of record geoffrey h hodgson what is capital economists and sociologists have changed its meaning should it be changed back cambridge journal of economics vol 38 5 1063 86 september 2014 is available online at http dx doi org 10 1093 cje beu013

out of step out of office electoral accountability and house members voting does a typical house member need to worry about the electoral ramifications of his roll call decisions we investigate the relationship between incumbents electoral performance and roll call support for their party controlling for district ideology challenger quality and campaign spending among other factors through a series of tests of the 1956 1996 elections the tests produce three key findings indicating that members are indeed accountable for their legislative voting first in each election an incumbent receives a lower vote share the more he supports his party second this effect is comparable in size to that of other widely recognized electoral determinants third a member s probability of retaining office decreases as he offers increased support for his party and this relationship holds for not only marginal but also safe members

modern money theory and the facts of experience this paper discusses modern money theory mmt with a particular focus on the role of the state in its monetary system and the nature of money it addresses the main differences between the orthodox heterodox and mmt approaches to monetary theory while reconciling endogenous money theory with the state money approach by emphasising the symmetry between how banks create money as they finance private spending and how the government creates money when it finances its own spending we clarify some of the misconceptions surrounding mmt while showing that it is more consistent with the facts of experience furthermore we argue that mmt s insistence that government spending or lending must precede bond sales is consistent with the keynesian emphasis on effective demand as the driving force behind income and saving we delve into mmt s implications for monetary and fiscal policy with a particular focus on the eurozone we conclude our paper by discussing two proposals of monetary cranks narrow banking and government issue of debt free money this allows us to re emphasise mmt s views on the nature of money

a stochastic model of the 2007 russian duma election in this paper we consider the nature of local nash equilibrium lne for a model of the 2007 duma election in russia using estimates of valence obtained from sociodemo graphic variables we then extend this sociodemographic valence model by including institutional valences the approval by voters of the various institutions including the president the prime minister the state duma and the federation council we show by simulation that the vote maximizing lne of this general stochastic model were not at the electoral origin the dominant feature of the election was the influence of approval or disapproval of president putin on each voter s political choice

diminished expectations redistributive preferences in truncated welfare states in latin america the relationship between income and support for redistribution is weak and variable despite the region s extreme income inequality this article shows that this condition is rooted in the truncated structure of many latin american welfare states heavy spending on contributory social insurance for formal sector workers flat or regressive subsidies and informal access barriers mean that social spending does far less for the poor in latin america than it does in advanced industrial economies using public opinion data from across latin america and original survey data from colombia the author demonstrates that income is less predictive of attitudes in the countries and social policy areas in which the poor gain less from social expenditures social policy exclusion leads the poor to doubt that they will benefit from redistribution thereby dampening their support for it the article reverses an assumption in political economy models that welfare exclusion unleashes demands for greater redistribution instead truncation reinforces skepticism about social policy helping the poor welfare state reforms to promote social inclusion are essential to strengthen redistributive coalitions

expansion versus density in barcelona a valuation exercise this study provides an alternative empirical approach to identify optimal urban growth when accounting for its associated environmental effects it is assumed that preserving outer landscapes and enjoying reduced density levels are inversely related and so households must trade them off the exercise analyses whether more disperse urban growth would be socially desirable in a particular area the metropolitan region of barcelona a contingent valuation exercise using a double bounded format was undertaken and an extended version of the spike model was used to estimate the willingness to pay of changing to a less dense urban path the results show that a less compact scenario would be welfare increasing in aggregate terms it is suggested that general proposals on compacting cities should not necessarily constitute a desirable planning goal

evil is the root of all money plenary talk delivered at the annual meeting of the society for economic dynamics this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

causes of sprawl a portrait from space we study the extent to which u s urban development is sprawling and what determines differences in sprawl across space using remote sensing data to track the evolution of land use on a grid of 8 7 billion 30 30 meter cells we measure sprawl as the amount of undeveloped land surrounding an average urban dwelling the extent of sprawl remained roughly unchanged between 1976 and 1992 although it varied dramatically across metropolitan areas ground water availability temperate climate rugged terrain decentralized employment early public transport infrastructure uncertainty about metropolitan growth and unincorporated land in the urban fringe all increase sprawl

new wine in old bottles the changing socioeconomic attributes of sprawl during building boom and stagnation abstract european cities are shifting towards scattered urban models with important transformations in the local socioeconomic context with the aim to identify relevant associations with different urban patterns the present study compares the socioeconomic profile of districts with respectively continuous and discontinuous settlements along the urban gradient in rome italy during building boom early 1970s and economic stagnation late 2000s non parametric correlation statistics and multivariate techniques were used to investigate the spatio temporal evolution of 24 indicators population settlement labor market economic structure and 14 land use environmental and topographic indicators at the municipal scale the socioeconomic context discriminating discontinuous from continuous settlements in the early 1970s was significantly different from what was observed in the late 2000s in the early 1970s economic structure and labor market indicators have played a major role while demographic variables and heterogeneity in the natural landscape surrounding discontinuous settlements were particularly important in the late 2000s policies oriented to urban sustainability and sprawl containment may benefit from an in depth understanding of the different socioeconomic contexts associated with scattered settlements in expansion and recession times

the continuing muddles of monetary theory a steadfast refusal to face facts lionel robbins was concerned about the methodology of economic science when he discussed the relationship between theory and reality two of the examples of inappropriate relationships were taken from monetary economics such shortcomings continue among the worst are 1 is lm whereby the monetary authorities set the monetary base and the interest rate is market determined 2 the monetary base multiplier of bank deposits and the role of reserve ratios 3 the current three equation neoclassical consensus assuming perfect creditworthiness and hence no need for banks 4 the analysis of the evolution of money

the determinants of mortality mortality rates have fallen dramatically over time starting in a few countries in the 18th century and continuing to fall today in just the past century life expectancy has increased by over 30 years at the same time mortality rates remain much higher in poor countries with a difference in life expectancy between rich and poor countries of also about 30 years this difference persists despite the remarkable progress in health improvement in the last half century at least until the hiv aids pandemic in both the time series and the cross section data there is a strong correlation between income per capita and mortality rates a correlation that also exists within countries where richer better educated people live longer we review the determinants of these patterns over history over countries and across groups within countries while there is no consensus about the causal mechanisms we tentatively identify the application of scientific advance and technical progress some of which is induced by income and facilitated by education as the ultimate determinant of health such an explanation allows a consistent interpretation of the historical cross country and within country evidence we downplay direct causal mechanisms running from income to health

the case for responsible parties electoral platform convergence is perceived unfavorably by both the popular press and many academic scholars arguably to paraphrase it does not provide enough choice between candidates this article provides a formal account of the perceived negative effects of platform convergence we show that when parties do not know voters preferences precisely all voters ex ante prefer some platform divergence to convergence at the ex ante median after characterizing the unique symmetric equilibrium of competition between responsible policy motivated parties we conclude that all voters ex ante prefer responsible parties to opportunistic purely office motivated ones when parties are sufficiently ideologically polarized that platforms diverge but not so polarized that they diverge excessively however greater polarization increases the scope for office benefits as an instrument for institutional design we calculate the socially optimal level of platform divergence and show that office benefits can be used to achieve this first best outcome if parties are sufficiently ideologically polarized

is polarization bad abstract the adverse effects of political and social polarization on government policies are empirically well documented yet some democracies seem to cope well or even benefit from diversity in this paper we develop a theoretical model to show how elections in polarized societies contribute to improve quality of government we consider both polarization among citizens and political actors political polarization where the second is endogenously determined by parties competing to win the support of the majority of voters we find that more heterogeneous societies are more likely to be politically polarized but that the divergence of positions in the political arena helps the electorate control government corruption by raising electoral stakes our results which are consistent with the findings of a substantial empirical literature suggest that when funneled into political competition polarization may help improving quality of government and policies

can we improve the structure of financial systems 1993 the main theme of this paper is that several of the characteristics of our present western monetary and banking systems have been crucially dependent on the particular temporal process of historical development and are not an essential feature of more fundamental preferences or technological conditions they exist in part because we take them for granted it is the purpose of this paper to examine what might change in both theory and practice if some of these inessential characteristics were to be changed

qe a successful start may be running into diminishing returns existing studies may have underestimated the impact of qe1 on uk gdp because they did not take full account of the beneficial effect on credit risk spreads and on the exchange rate however all such effects were also influenced by the roughly simultaneous introduction of similar easing in the usa which complicates the analysis another area where qe has been positive is in reducing public sector borrowing costs where qe1 and subsequent rounds have disappointed is in their inability to stimulate a recovery in credit and monetary growth amid an increased desire among banks to hold far more of their reserves at the central bank moreover there is growing evidence of significant diminishing returns in qe2 as gilt rates have already fallen to historically low levels and the risk is that if policy makers fail to resuscitate the bank lending channel further rounds of qe could potentially have negative returns

a multivariate analysis of the energy intensity of sprawl versus compact living in the u s for 2003 abstract we explore the energy intensity of sprawl versus compact living by analyzing the total energy requirements of u s households for the year 2003 the methods used are based on previous studies on energy cost of living total energy requirement is calculated as a function of individual energy intensities of goods and services derived from economic input output analysis and expenditures for those goods and services we use multivariate regression analysis to estimate patterns in household energy intensities we define sprawl in terms of location in rural areas or in areas with low population size we find that even though sprawl related factors account for about 83 of the average household energy consumption sprawl is only 17 19 more energy intensive than compact living based on how people actually lived we observe that some of the advantages of reduced direct energy use by people living in high density urban centers are offset by their consumption of other non energy products a more detailed analysis reveals that lifestyle choices household type number of vehicles and family size that could be independent of location play a significant role in determining household energy intensity we develop two models that offer opportunities for further analysis

does religion distract the poor income and issue voting around the world this article asks whether religion undermines the negative relationship between income and left voting that is assumed in standard political economy models of democracy analysis of cross country survey data reveals that this correlation disappears among religious individuals in countries that use proportional representation this is the case in large part because there is a moral values dimension that has a correlation with income that is equal in magnitude but has the opposite sign as the economic dimension and the votes of the religious are better explained by their positions on moral than economic issues especially in countries with multiparty systems the authors conclude by discussing implications for theories of redistribution

who gives who gains progressivity and preferences the extent to which popular support for the welfare state depends on income varies greatly across nations and policy domains we argue and show formally that these variations largely overlooked yet essential to understanding the politics of redistribution reflect in part the design of tax and transfer policies in terms of progressivity when progressivity is high politics is perceived by income groups as a zero sum game and conflicts over who gets what intensify when progressivity is low and tax contributors and benefit recipients overlap redistributive struggles become politically less salient we test these predictions both across nations and across policy domains within a sample of advanced industrial democracies our findings indicate that the progressivity of the tax and transfer system is a major determinant of the predictive power of income on preferences for redistribution

why the poor do not expropriate the rich an old argument in new garb we consider a political economy with two partisan parties each party represents a given constituency of voters if one party labour represents poor voters and the other christian democrats rich voters if a redistributive tax policy is the only issue and if there are no incentive considerations then in equilibrium the party representing the poor will propose a tax rate of unity if however there are two issues tax policy and religion for instance then this is not generally the case the analysis shows that if a simple condition on the distribution of voter preferences holds then as the salience of the non economic issue increases the tax rate proposed by labour in equilibrium will fall possibly even to zero even though a majority of the population may have an ideal tax rate of unity 1998 elsevier science s a all rights reserved

the strength of issues using multiple measures to gauge preference stability ideological constraint and issue voting a venerable supposition of american survey research is that the vast majority of voters have incoherent and unstable preferences about political issues which in turn have little impact on vote choice we demonstrate that these findings are manifestations of measurement error associated with individual survey items first we show that averaging a large number of survey items on the same broadly defined issue area for example government involvement in the economy or moral issues eliminates a large amount of measurement error and reveals issue preferences that are well structured and stable this stability increases steadily as the number of survey items increases and can approach that of party identification second we show that once measurement error has been reduced through the use of multiple measures issue preferences have much greater explanatory power in models of presidential vote choice again approaching that of party identification

the behavioral foundations of social politics evidence from surveys and a laboratory democracy the dominant theoretical approaches in the comparative political economy of the welfare state provide alternative accounts for why some governments spend more on social policies than others in the first poor voters seek to increase their current income by taxing the rich and social policy serves to redistribute income from the rich to the poor in the second account voters seek social insurance against future job loss and social policy serves as an insurance mechanism rather than a redistributive one both of these accounts share the assumption that voters can clearly distinguish between the redistributive and insurance elements of public policy and therefore that individual level characteristics income labor market risks systematically shape preferences over social policy our goal is to examine the soundness of that behavioral assumption we do so with a laboratory experiment that involves economic production voting on taxation and fiscal transfers we treat subjects with social policies that

exploring sprawl results from an economic agent based model of land and housing markets this paper uses an economic agent based model of land use in a growing community on the urban fringe to explore the importance of key economic variables on the spatial patterns of development over time understanding dispersed patterns of urban development is important for designing policies for mitigating the environmental and other adverse effects of urban sprawl the model includes as agents heterogeneous farmer landowners and housing consumers and a representative developer who buys land and builds houses underlying economic behavior of consumer utility maximization and developer and farmer profit maximization is assumed a unique feature of the model is that housing is characterized by variation in both lot size and house size allowing for exploration of the effects of changes in key parameters on both land and housing markets and the interaction between them the paper explores the relative importance of consumer preferences spatial distribution of agricultural productivity and travel costs in creating sprawling development patterns consumer preferences for large lots do result in more land in development and lower density but leap frog development in the model appears to be driven by other economic influences as well and in general more stable housing prices mute the effect of more variable land prices and tend to dampen the effects of economic shocks to the urbanizing area

landscape preferences and patterns of residential development abstract i analyze a model of residential location choice where people derive utility from their proximity to open space when people have such landscape preferences then 1 equilibrium residential development is mixed with undeveloped land 2 equilibrium land price gradients depend sensitively on how land markets are organized are not generally monotonic and may or may not reflect the value of open space and 3 dynamic equilibria generally have the property that more remote areas are developed before more central areas finally when compared to optimal development equilibrium development houses too many residents too close together and remote areas are developed too soon these results imply that equilibrium development may not be sprawling enough and that policies to encourage infill development are not welfare improving

candidate entry and political polarization an antimedian voter theorem we study a citizen candidate entry model with private information about ideal points we fully characterize the unique symmetric equilibrium of the entry game and show that only relatively extreme citizen types enter the electoral competition as candidates whereas more moderate types never enter it generally leads to substantial political polarization even when the electorate is not polarized and citizens understand that they vote for more extreme candidates we show that polarization increases in the costs of entry and decreases in the benefits from holding office moreover when the number of citizens goes to infinity only the very most extreme citizens with ideal points at the boundary of the policy space become candidates finally our polarization result is robust to changes in the implementation of a default policy if no citizen runs for office and to introducing directional information about candidates types that is revealed via parties

the dynamics of state policy liberalism 1936 2014 applying a dynamic latent variable model to data on 148 policies collected over eight decades 1936 2014 we produce the first yearly measure of the policy liberalism of u s states our dynamic measure of state policy liberalism marks an important advance over existing measures almost all of which are purely cross sectional and thus cannot be used to study policy change we find that in the aggregate the policy liberalism of u s states steadily increased between the 1930s and 1970s and then largely plateaued the policy liberalism of most states has remained stable in relative terms though several states have shifted considerably over time we also find surprisingly little evidence of multidimensionality in state policy outputs our new estimates of state policy liberalism have broad application to the study of political development representation accountability and other important issues in political science abstract from author

the multidimensional effects of religion on socioeconomic development a review of the empirical literature religion plays a fundamental role in most people s lives with profound implications for socioeconomic development this survey provides a comprehensive and systematic overview of the causal mechanisms between religion and development discussed and tested in the economics literature and reviews quantitative empirical evidence on the actual effects of religion on economic and social dimensions of development we start by disaggregating the concept of religion into four religious dimensions and propose a framework to conceptualize causal mechanisms numerous mechanisms are possible but only a few uncontested findings exist religion is ambivalent vis a vis development although religious ideas can foster certain forms of human capital acquisition and labor market participation scholars have found a negative relationship between religious dimensions and both income and gender equality as well as innovation activities religious identity is also a source of labor market discrimination and has ambivalent effects on economic growth and social cohesion methodological challenges refer to the availability of fine grained data especially for developing countries the use of concepts and definitions and the lack of causal inference

the future of monetary aggregates in monetary policy analysis this paper considers the role of monetary aggregates in modern macroeconomic models of the new keynesian type the focus is on possible developments of these models that are suggested by the monetarist literature and that in addition seem justified empirically both the relation between money and inflation and between money and aggregate demand are considered regarding the first relation it is argued that both the mean and the dynamics of inflation in present day models are governed by money growth this relationship arises from a conventional aggregate demand channel claims that an emphasis on the link between monetary aggregates and inflation requires a direct channel connecting money and inflation are wide of the mark the relevance of money for aggregate demand in turn lies not via real balance effects or any other justification for money in the is equation but on money s ability to serve as a proxy for the various substitution effects of monetary policy that exist when many asset prices matter for aggregate demand this role for monetary aggregates which is supported by empirical evidence enhances the value of money to monetary policy

quantitative easing and the loan to collateral value ratio we study optimal monetary policy in a new keynesian model at the zero bound interest rate where households use cash alongside house equity borrowing to conduct transactions the amount of borrowing is limited by a collateral constraint when either the loan to value ratio declines or house prices fall we observe a decrease in the money multiplier we argue that the central bank should respond to the fall in the money multiplier and therefore to the reduction in house prices or the loan to collateral value ratio we also find that optimal monetary policy generates a large and persistent fall in the money multiplier in response to the drop in the loan to collateral value ratio

spatial voting in the 2004 presidential election the theory of spatial voting has played a large role in the development of important results across many areas of political science directly testing the foundational assumptions of spatial voting theory however has not been possible with existing data using a novel survey design this article obtains estimates of voter ideology on the same scale as candidate positions the results of this scaling demonstrate that voters possess meaningful ideologies and furthermore that these beliefs are strongly related to the sorts of policy proposals considered in congress these ideology estimates are then used to uncover the actual relationships between ideology and vote choice for citizens of various types in the 2004 presidential election although the choices of independent voters are shown to be largely consistent with the assumptions of spatial voting theory the decision rules used by partisans differ strongly from what unbiased spatial voting would imply although partisans do converge toward the behavior of independents and hence toward the assumptions of spatial voting theory as information levels increase we see that even highly informed partisans show significant differences from what would be implied by unbiased spatial voting theory

toward a new microfounded macroeconomics in the wake of the crisis the great recession that followed the financial crisis of 2007 is not only the largest economic crisis after the great depression of the 1930s it also signals a crisis of economics as a discipline this is not only the consequence of the inadequacy of mainstream macroeconomics and specifically the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium dsge workhorse model to forecast such a huge event or at least to detect the worrying tendencies towards it even more relevant is the choice to explicitly avoid the modeling of large crises that for someone is a motivation for not attacking pre crisis dsge models focused on the analysis of small deviations from the steady state so denying the intrinsic nature of capitalism a system that necessarily proceeds through cycles and extended crises the replies of the dsge approach to critics have led to extensions regarding for instance the role of financial frictions heterogeneous agents and bounded rationality though typically in the form of quasi rational expectations the alternative paradigm of agent based ab macroeconomics can take into account all these elements at once within an evolutionary modeling framework based on heterogeneity and interaction so capable to endogenously reproduce complex dynamics from small fluctuations to large crises due to innovation and industrial dynamics rising inequality and financial instability and so on the integration between ab macroeconomics and the post keynesian stock flow consistent approach represents a promising way for the future development of this research field

residential segregation and unemployment the case of brussels this paper investigates the causal effects of the spatial organisation of brussels on unemployment propensities using census data at the individual level the unemployment probability of young adults is estimated while taking into account personal household and neighbourhood characteristics the endogeneity of residential locations is solved by restricting the sample to young adults residing with their parents the potential remaining bias is evaluated by conducting a sensitivity analysis the results suggest that the neighbourhood of residence significantly increases a youngster s probability of being unemployed a result which is quite robust to the presence of both observed and unobserved parental covariates

liberte egalite religiosite abstract we study the effect of religiosity on the political choices over redistribution and the legal restrictions on personal liberties we assume that the more religious an individual is i the less he enjoys the use of liberties prohibited by his religion and ii the higher the negative externality experienced when others practice those liberties we show that legal restrictions on liberties has an impact on income inequality we find that when the religious cleavage in society is large high intolerance due to negative externalities leads to a political outcome consisting of repression of liberties and relatively low taxes

does trust in government increase support for redistribution evidence from randomized survey experiments why have decades of high and rising inequality in the united states not increased public support for redistribution an established theory in political science holds that americans distrust of government decreases their support for redistribution but empirical support draws primarily on regression analyses of national surveys i discuss the untestable assumptions required for identification with regression modeling and propose an alternative design that uses randomized experiments about political corruption to identify the effect of trust in government on support for redistribution under weaker assumptions i apply this to three survey experiments and estimate the effects that large experimentally induced increases in political trust have on support for redistribution contrary to theoretical predictions estimated effects are substantively negligible statistically indistinguishable from zero and comparable to estimates from two placebo experiments i discuss implications for theory building about causes of support for redistribution in an era of rising inequality and eroding confidence in government