cash transfer programs with income multipliers procampo in mexico abstract cash transfer programs create multiplier effects when recipients put the money they receive to work to generate further incomes when this is the case the ultimate income effects are multiples of the amounts transferred we analyze the procampo program in mexico that was introduced to compensate farmers for the anticipated negative effect of nafta on the prices of basic crops the transfer rules and the timing of the panel data collected allow unique control of biases in this impact analysis we find that the multiplier among ejido sector recipients is in the range 1 5 2 6 multipliers are higher for households with medium and large farms low numbers of adults in the household nonindigenous backgrounds and located in the center and gulf regions high multipliers reflect income opportunities that had remained unrealized due to liquidity constraints that are relaxed by the transfers opportunities come from the asset endowments that these households received through the land reform particularly irrigated land and they are enhanced by access to technical assistance

aid and growth what meta analysis reveals abstract recent literature in the meta analysis category where results from a range of studies are brought together throws doubt on the ability of foreign aid to foster economic growth and development this article assesses what meta analysis has to contribute to the literature on the effectiveness of foreign aid in terms of growth impact we re examine key hypotheses and find that the effect of aid on growth is positive and statistically significant this significant effect is genuine and not an artefact of publication selection we also show why our results differ from those published elsewhere

the impact of natural disaster on energy consumption international evidence abstract this research shows that natural disasters may hurt energy consumption by using data on 123 countries over the period 1990 2015 and classifying them according to their economic development level and region based on world development indicators we employ a two step system gmm method to examine the effect of natural disasters on energy consumption presenting findings that support our hypotheses in the models and show a strong negative effect for low income countries or those in the africa region after considering an alternative proxy for natural disaster we implement quantile regression methods their results find that natural disasters exhibit a negative and significant impact on oil renewable and nuclear energy consumptions the quantile regression models used in the robustness check present that the effects are stronger for low level energy consumption economies

aid policies and growth a nonlinear reassessment the association between foreign aid and growth has been controversial for decades and the evidence is quite mixed with results sensitive to data samples and modelling approaches we reassess the re

on the empirics of foreign aid and growth the present paper re examines the effectiveness of foreign aid theoretically and empirically using a standard olg model we show that aid inflows will in general affect long run productivity the size and direction of the impact may depend on policies deep structural characteristics and the size of the inflow the empirical analysis investigates these possibilities overall we find that aid has been effective in spurring growth but the magnitude of the effect depends on climate related circumstances finally we argue that the collier dollar allocation rule should be seriously reconsidered by donor agencies if aid effectiveness is related to climate the usefulness of foreign aid in promoting growth in developing countries has been an area of controversy ever since rosenstein rodan in 1943 advocated for aid to eastern and south eastern europe browsing through successive editions of a leading textbook in development economics provides a telling illustration of how the confidence in aid effectiveness dwindled over the years in the first edition of leading issues in economic development meier 1964 dedicated a full 18 page section to the issue of foreign aid he started out asking how much aid by the time of the sixth edition meier 1995 the treatment of foreign aid had been cut into half and the questions in focus were why official assistance and does aid work in the 2000 edition meier and rauch 2000 foreign aid is not even listed in the index

reducing child malnutrition how far does income growth take us how rapidly will child malnutrition respond to income growth this article explores that question using household survey data from 12 countries as well as data on malnutrition rates in a cross section of countries since the 1970s both forms of analysis yield similar results increases in income at the household and national levels imply similar rates of reduction in malnutrition using these estimates and better than historical income growth rates the article finds that the millennium development goal of halving the prevalence of underweight children by 2015 is unlikely to be met through income growth alone what is needed to accelerate reductions in malnutrition is a balanced strategy of income growth and investment in more direct interventions

how important is improving food availability for reducing child malnutrition in developing countries abstract do increases in the food supply per person in a country i e national food availability contribute substantially to reductions in malnutrition among its children this paper sets out to answer this controversial question using panel data from 63 developing countries over 1970 1996 this paper gives evidence in support of a statistically significant and strong positive impact of national food availability on child nutrition finding that increased food supplies have resulted in significant reductions in malnutrition since the 1970s despite population increases over the period however per capita food supplies have a declining marginal impact their effect is quite strong for countries with very low food availability e g most countries in sub saharan africa and south asia but weak or non existent for those with high levels e g most countries in the near east and north africa further non food factors such as women s education and status and the quality of health environments are also important determinants of children s nutritional status depending on the state of food availability in any particular geographic area and relative costs these factors may merit greater priority in policies to reduce malnutrition

does globalization affect growth evidence from a new index of globalization the study develops an index of globalization covering its three main dimensions economic integration social integration and political integration using panel data for 123 countries in 1970 2000 it is analysed empirically whether the overall index of globalization as well as sub indexes constructed to measure the single dimensions affect economic growth as the results show globalization indeed promotes growth the dimensions most robustly related with growth refer to actual economic flows and restrictions in developed countries although less robustly information flows also promote growth whereas political integration has no effect

tariffs and growth an empirical exploration of contingent relationships abstract a large body of empirical research indicates that countries with low policy induced trade barriers tend to enjoy rapid growth ceteris paribus in contrast alternative theoretical models suggest that the relationship between trade barriers and growth may be contingent on the level of development employing a direct trade barrier measure ad valorem tariff rates we find evidence of such a contingency the marginal effect of tariffs on growth is declining in the level of per capita income moreover evidence of a negative relationship between tariffs and growth is apparent only among the world s rich countries

consumer durables and the real interest rate one important channel through which real interest rates affect aggregate demand is consumer expenditure on durable goods this paper examines empirically the link between interest rates and consumer durables solving for the decision rule relating income and interest rates to consumer demand is an intractable task this paper avoids this problem by examining the first order conditions necessary for maximization by the representative consumer structural parameters of there presentative utility function are thus recovered the estimated model suggests that expenditure on consumer durables is far more sensitive to changes in the interest rate than is expenditure on nondurables and services this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

discretionary fiscal responses to the covid 19 pandemic we analyse discretionary fiscal responses to the covid 19 pandemic we distinguish policies for three phases of the pandemic 1 acute overall disruption 2 initial recovery phase and 3 the longer term we analyse measures already taken in 1 and consider measures relevant for 2 we distinguish between lump sum subsidies such as deferral of tax payments which may ease financial constraints and measures which intentionally affect incentives we also identify factors that are important given the short term nature of the measures

disease and development the effect of life expectancy on economic growth we exploit the major international health improvements from the 1940s to estimate the effect of life expectancy on economic performance we construct predicted mortality using preintervention mortality rates from various diseases and dates of global interventions predicted mortality has a large impact on changes in life expectancy starting in 1940 but no effect before 1940 using predicted mortality as an instrument we find that a 1 percent increase in life expectancy leads to a 1 7 2 percent increase in population life expectancy has a much smaller effect on total gdp however consequently there is no evidence that the large increase in life expectancy raised income per capita

aid and growth regressions this paper examines the relationship between foreign aid and growth in real gdp per capita as it emerges from simple augmentations of popular cross country growth specifications it is shown that aid in all likelihood increases the growth rate and this result is not conditional on good policy there are however decreasing returns to aid and the estimated effectiveness of aid is highly sensitive to the choice of estimator and the set of control variables when investment and human capital are controlled for no positive effect of aid is found yet aid continues to impact on growth via investment we conclude by stressing the need for more theoretical work before this kind of cross country regressions are used for policy purposes

macroeconomic adjustment and the poor analytical issues and cross country evidence the author studies the links between macroeconomic adjustment and poverty first he summarizes some of the recent evidence on poverty in the developing world second he reviews the various channels through which macroeconomic policies affect the poor third the author emphasizes the role of the labor market he develops an analytical framework that captures some of the main features of the urban labor market in developing countries and studies the effects of fiscal adjustment on wages employment and poverty fourth he presents cross country regressions linking various macroeconomic and structural variables to poverty the author finds that output growth and real exchange rate depreciations tend to lower poverty while illiteracy income inequality and macroeconomic volatility tend to increase poverty in addition the impact of growth on poverty appears to be asymmetric and to result from a significant relationship between episodes of increasing poverty and negative growth rates

what is the aggregate economic rate of return to foreign aid in recent years academic studies have been converging towards the view that foreign aid promotes aggregate economic growth we employ a simulation approach to i validate the coherence of empirical aid growth studies published since 2008 and ii calculate plausible ranges for the rate of return to aid our results highlight the long run nature of aid financed investments and the importance of channels other than accumulation of physical capital we find the return to aid lies in ranges commonly accepted for public investments and there is little to justify the view that aid has had a significant pernicious effect on productivity

why conditional aid does not work and what can be done about it abstract this paper studies a simple reform that introduces ex post incentives for the donor to reward good policies contrary to existing practices instead of committing aid to each recipient ex ante and making aid conditional on reform the donor centralizes the disbursement decision by committing aid to a group of countries the actual amount disbursed to each individual country would depend on its relative performance this explicit linkage of the allocation and disbursement decisions has two important advantages as compared to present practices first it raises the opportunity cost of disbursing aid ex post thereby giving the donor stronger incentives to reward good policies second competition among recipients allows the donor to make inferences about common shocks which otherwise conceal the recipient s choice of action this enables the donor to give aid more efficiently

history institutions and economic performance the legacy of colonial land tenure systems in india we analyze the colonial land revenue institutions set up by the british in india and show that differences in historical property rights institutions lead to sustained differences in economic outcomes areas in which proprietary rights in land were historically given to landlords have significantly lower agricultural investments and productivity in the post independence period than areas in which these rights were given to the cultivators these areas also have significantly lower investments in health and education these differences are not driven by omitted variables or endogeneity problems they probably arise because differences in historical institutions lead to very different policy choices

tax policy and consumer spending evidence from japanese fiscal experiments abstract this paper studies the extent to which the impact of tax policy on consumer spending differs between temporary and permanent as well as anticipated and unanticipated tax changes to discriminate between them we use institutional information such as legal distinction between temporary and permanent tax changes as well as timing of policy announcement and implementation we find that the impact of temporary changes is significantly smaller than the impact of permanent changes we also find that more than 80 percent of japanese consumers including those who distinguish between temporary and permanent tax changes respond to tax changes at the time of their implementation and not at the time of a policy announcement we suggest an interpretation that these consumers follow a near rational decision rule

governance quality remittances and their implications for food and nutrition security in sub saharan africa abstract despite impressive progress in the fight against malnutrition and hunger in recent years food and nutrition insecurity remains a major concern in sub saharan africa ssa countries in this study we employ a panel data covering 15 ssa countries from 1996 to 2015 to investigate the growth effects of remittances and quality of governance on food and nutrition security proxied by the average value of food production and the average dietary energy supply adequacy respectively we use a dynamic empirical model based on system gmm to control for unobserved heterogeneity and potential endogeneity of the explanatory variables the empirical results emanating from our analysis show that the interaction of remittances and the composite index of governance quality exerts positive and significant effects on the average value of food production and also contributes to the improvement of average dietary energy supply adequacy in ssa in addition the control of corruption government effectiveness political stability and rule of law scores increase both measures of food and nutrition security albeit the contribution of control over corruption score is relatively the largest as compared to other indicators of governance

macro economic aspects of the effectiveness of foreign aid on the two gap model home goods disequilibrium and real exchange rate misalignment we construct an open economy disequilibrium model to assess the welfare effects of aid in different macroeconomic regimes aid is shown to have different effects in different unemployment regimes because it increases the social costs of wage price rigidities in the classical regime but decreases them in the keynesian unemployment regime a link is made with the two gap model but we highlight the role of real exchange rate misalignment failure to clear the nt goods market

the effects of price deregulation on maize marketing margins in south africa abstract there has been continuous controversy over the impact of food market reforms on food security in africa in south africa the government and media have often questioned the effects of price deregulation of maize meal the major staple food on consumers this article determines the effect of retail price deregulation on the size of maize milling retail margins in south africa regression models of monthly milling retail margins are run from the period may 1976 to december 2004 to assess the robustness of our findings we estimate several different models of structural change vary the sample period to examine the sensitivity of findings to unusual weather and market conditions in the region during episodes between 2001 and 2004 and run the models using different estimation techniques ols with newey west robust estimators and feasible general least squares in virtually all models the results indicate that real maize milling retailing margins in south africa have increased by at least 20 since the deregulation of retail prices in 1991 moreover there is evidence of trend growth in the size of the milling margin over time simulations indicate that the deregulation of maize meal prices has entailed a transfer of at least us 179 million year from consumers to agents in the marketing system further study is needed to understand why this outcome in south africa differs from findings in other countries in the region concerning the effects of reform on food marketing margins

the efficiency gains from dynamic tax reform this paper presents a new simulation methodology for determining the pure efficiency gains from tax reform along the general equilibrium rational expectations growth path of life cycle economies the principal findings concern the effects of switching from a proportional income tax with rates similar to those in the u s to either a proportional tax on consumption or a proportional tax on labor income a switch to consumption taxation generates a sustainable welfare gain of almost 2 percent of lifetime resources in contrast a transition to wage taxation generates a loss of greater than percent of lifetime re sources a second general result is that even a mild degree of progressivity in the income tax system imposes a very large efficiency cost this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

trade liberalization and food security in nepal among south asian countries nepal liberalized most extensively during the 1980s and 1990s on both domestic and external fronts in south asia nepal has the lowest per capita income highest dependence of population on agriculture and second highest poverty rate at the same time nepal has the lowest average tariffs in south asia and has taken several steps to downsize its public food distribution system and remove a host of agricultural subsidies the outcomes from these policy reforms in nepal are mixed aggregate indicators of food sufficiency and security per capita food availability extent of malnourishment show improvement in nepal since liberalization relative to other south asian countries nepal is doing better on some indicators like extent of undernourished population while on other indicators like stunting of children nepal is actually doing the worst more importantly the gains from liberalization across regions in nepal have been uneven the reason for such an uneven outcome is lack of complementary policies from the government that would lead to spatial integration of markets e g the creation of physical and marketing infrastructure liberalization has in effect reinforced the ex ante hierarchy across regions in nepal the paper then reviews the role and reform of the nepal food corporation nfc within this broader context

public policy markets and household coping strategies in bangladesh avoiding a food security crisis following the 1998 floods abstract at their peak the 1998 floods covered two thirds of bangladesh causing severe damage to the major rice crop and threatening the food security of tens of millions of households in this paper we first highlight the contribution of government policy interventions including trade liberalization in the early 1990s to stabilization of rice markets during and after the flood then using a panel data set covering 750 households in three rounds over a 13 month period we analyze impacts of the flood on household assets consumption and nutritional outcomes finally we present empirical estimates of the contribution of rice market stabilization and government transfers to household food consumption

aid dependence and the quality of governance cross country empirical tests aid dependence can potentially undermine the quality of governance and public sector institutions by weakening accountability encouraging rent seeking and corruption fomenting conflict over control of aid funds siphoning off scarce talent from the bureaucracy and alleviating pressures to reform inefficient policies and institutions analyses of cross country data in this paper provide evidence that higher aid levels erode the quality of governance as measured by indices of bureaucratic quality corruption and the rule of law these findings support the need for donors to develop less costly and less intrusive ways of disseminating state of the art knowledge on public sector reform in developing countries

aid nontraded goods and the transfer paradox in small countries this paper constructs a model of the transfer paradox for a small open economy with nontraded goods it demonstrates that increased production of nontraded goods can change their domestic price so as to offset the otherwise beneficial effect of aid and under certain conditions to create a transfer paradox even in a small country the model is estimated with time series data for 44 aid dependent countries for the period 1970 90 the results support the model and show that the nontraded goods expansion effect is more likely to cause immiserization than harry g johnson s 1967 tariff distorting export displacement effect

unconventional fiscal policy at the zero bound when the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates binds monetary policy cannot provide appropriate stimulus we show that in the standard new keynesian model tax policy can deliver such stimulus at no cost and in a time consistent manner there is no need to use inecient policies such as

booming sector and de industrialisation in a small open economy this paper presents a theoretical analysis of the dutch disease the phenomenon whereby a boom in one traded goods sector squeezes porfitability in other traded goods sectors both by directly bi

does foreign aid corrupt abstract we estimate the impact of foreign aid on corruption using geographical and cultural distance to the donor countries as instrumental variables to assess causality aid decreases corruption our results are statistically and economically significant and robust to different controls

the elasticity of intertemporal substitution new evidence from 401 k participation abstract using health and retirement study data and a structural econometric model we exploit variation in employer matching rates in 401 k plans to generate new estimates of the eis 0 74 in our richest specification with a 95 confidence interval of 0 37 1 21

the dynamic implications of foreign aid and its variability abstract the paper examines the effects of aid and its volatility on consumption investment and the structure of production in the context of an intertemporal two sector general equilibrium model calibrated using data for aid dependent countries in africa a permanent flow of aid mainly finances consumption rather than investment consistent with the historical failure of aid inflows to translate into sustained growth large aid flows are associated with higher real exchange rates and smaller tradable sectors because aid is a substitute for tradable consumption aid volatility results in substantial welfare losses providing a motivation for recent discussions of aid architecture stressing the need for greater predictability of aid these results are also consistent with evidence from cross country regressions of manufactured exports presented later in the paper

sticker shocks using vat changes to estimate upper level elasticities of substitution we estimate the upper level elasticity of substitution between goods and services of a nested aggregate ces preference specification we show how this elasticity can be derived from the long run response of the relative price of a good to a change in its vat rate we estimate this elasticity using new data on changes in vat rates across 74 goods and services for 25 european union countries from 1996 through 2015 depending on the level of aggregation we find a vat pass through rate between 0 4 and 0 7 this implies an upper level elasticity of 3 at the lowest level of aggregation with 74 categories and 1 cobb douglas preferences at a high level of aggregation that distinguishes 10 categories of goods and services

aid and the dutch disease macroeconomic management when everybody loves you abstract countries that undertake serious and sustained programs of stabilization and structural adjustment should expect to attract significant new inflows of capital from donor countries and international institutions while apparently beneficial those flows can work at crosspurpose with other goals of the policy reforms in particular abundant foreign exchange loans can force an appreciation of the real exchange rate often through domestic inflation rather than a nominal appreciation in addition since the government is almost always the recipient of these loans it can crowd out the private sector if it increases its aggregate demand for domestic goods and services if the crowding out is accomplished by tight monetary policy it will fall primarily on private investment rather than consumption this paper shows that both of these problems have surfaced in ghana a country that has become a favorite of donors after demonstrating a serious commitment to policies promoted by the world bank and international monetary fund the paper also suggests modifications in macroeconomic policy that would help lower inflation and boost private investment

intertemporal substitution and storable products storable products allow consumers to time their purchases to exploit price fluctuations it has been documented that during promotions consumers buy more the additional purchases are potentially intended not only for current use but to be stockpiled for future consumption this paper discusses the predictions of a consumer inventory model and reviews the available evidence we then discuss the implications for demand estimation and present estimates of jel lo l4 dl d4 the economic magnitude of the dynamic effect of storability jel lo l4 dl d4 jel lo l4 dl d4

learning by doing and the dutch disease this paper develops a model of learning by doing and the dutch disease that extends the earlier literature in two ways first it is assumed that both the traded and the non traded sector can contribute to learning second it is assumed that there are learning spillovers between the sectors it is shown that within such a model a foreign exchange gift results in a real exchange rate depreciation in the long run due to a shift in the steady state relative productivity between the traded and the non traded sector in contrast to standard models of the dutch disease production and productivity in both sectors may go up or down the conditions for the different cases are worked out

the effect of health on economic growth a production function approach abstract we estimate a production function model of aggregate economic growth including two variables that microeconomists have identified as fundamental components of human capital work experience and health our main result is that good health has a positive sizable and statistically significant effect on aggregate output even when we control for experience of the workforce we argue that the life expectancy effect in growth regressions appears to be a real labor productivity effect and is not the result of life expectancy acting as a proxy for worker experience

winners and losers from an announced durable tax hike tesla in denmark we study the consumer response and tax revenue implications of the early announcement of a durable good tax in 2015 the danish government announced a tax hike on electric vehicles several months

aid infrastructure and fdi assessing the transmission channel with a new index of infrastructure official development assistance oda and foreign direct investment fdi are widely perceived to be alternative means of supplementing domestic savings and promoting economic development in low and middle income countries however possible complementarities of aid and fdi have received limited attention so far it remains open to debate whether aid could render recipient countries more attractive to fdi by removing specific bottlenecks that prevent higher fdi inflows in particular we raise the hypothesis that aid specifically targeted at economic infrastructure helps developing countries attract higher fdi inflows through improving their endowment with infrastructure in transportation communication energy and finance by performing 3sls estimations we explicitly account for dependencies between three structural equations on the allocation of sector specific aid the determinants of infrastructure and the determinants of fdi we find strong and robust evidence that aid in infrastructure is effective in improving the recipient countries endowment with infrastructure in sharp contrast other aid is not effective in improving infrastructure infrastructure consistently proves to be an important determinant of developing countries attractiveness to fdi consequently only targeted aid promotes fdi indirectly through the infrastructure channel in addition aid in infrastructure has direct effects on fdi it appears that foreign investors anticipate longer term effects of aid on the country s endowment with infrastructure and expect aid financed infrastructure to serve them particularly well

regional trade government policy and food security recent evidence from zambia given heavy dependence on rainfed maize production countries in east and southern africa must routinely cope with pronounced production and consumption volatility in their primary food staple typical policy responses include increased food aid flows government commercial imports and stock releases and tight controls on private sector trade this paper examines recent evidence from zambia using a simple economic model to assess the likely impact of maize production shocks on the domestic maize price and on staple food consumption under alternative policy regimes in addition to an array of public policy instruments the analysis evaluates the impact of two key private sector responses in moderating food consumption volatility private cross border maize trade and consumer substitution of an alternate food staple cassava for maize the analysis suggests that given a favorable policy environment private imports and increased cassava consumption together could fill roughly two thirds of the maize consumption shortfall facing vulnerable households during drought years

aid effectiveness opening the black box this paper examines the causality chain linking aid flows to development outcomes it argues that many of the questions policymakers and economists would like data to answer simply cannot be answered due to the complexity and noise along links in the chain and the problem of attribution it then examines what is known about aid effectiveness along different links in the causality chain finally it turns to recent trends in the way aid is delivered and the new model that appears to be emerging

assessing foreign aid s long run contribution to growth in development this paper confirms recent evidence of a positive impact of aid on growth and widens the scope of evaluation to a range of outcomes including proximate sources of growth e g physical and human capital indicators of social welfare e g poverty and infant mortality and measures of economic transformation e g share of agriculture and industry in value added focusing on long run cumulative effects of aid in developing countries and taking due account of potential endogeneity a coherent and favorable pattern of results emerges aid has over the past forty years stimulated growth promoted structural change improved social indicators and reduced poverty

aid econometrics lessons from a stochastic growth model abstract this paper evaluates the standard empirical methods employed in the study of foreign aid when the data generating process is a calibrated stochastic growth model in which aid recipients make optimal investment and consumption decisions when recipients receive a stochastic flow of aid and wish to smooth consumption standard methods fail to distinguish between the response to transient and permanent aid shocks and hence yield misleading results concerning the object of interest to policy makers the long run impact of aid

measuring intertemporal substitution in consumption evidence from a vat increase in japan abstract we estimate the intertemporal elasticity of substitution in consumption ies using a preannounced increase in japan s consumption tax rate because this tax is highly comprehensive the rate increase was announced prior to its implementation and because other factors that affect the real interest rate were constant the tax rate increase presents an ideal natural experiment to estimate the ies a japanese monthly household survey is exploited to accurately categorize nondurables and our empirical specification addresses intratemporal substitution bias we find that the ies is 0 21 and not significantly different from 0 but it is significantly less than 1

the impact of market liberalisation on food security in zambia abstract the main elements in agricultural market liberalisation have been the dismantling of the state institutions for marketing and distribution of agricultural produce the abolition of subsidies the liberalisation of import and export trade and the market determination of input and output prices economic policy reforms on the monetary fiscal and other fronts also impinged on the variables influencing production trade and consumption this paper highlights some of the undesirable offshoots of the previous policy regime and enumerates the specific policies that have been introduced since 1992 it describes the positive and negative outcomes witnessed so far finally it suggests what needs to be done to eliminate the prevailing major constraints to growth in food production and consumption

on the intertemporal elasticity of substitution under nonhomothetic utility in this note we use a model with nonseparable and nonhomothetic preferences to estimate the intertemporal elasticity of substitution ies we show that while the homothetic utility model may induce a bias that increases the elasticity of substitution between nondurables and durables the estimated ies remains positive and significant

shining a light on the resource curse an empirical analysis of the relationship between natural resources transparency and economic growth summary one of the most common policy prescriptions for overcoming the so called resource curse particularly for extractive industries has been to call for greater transparency and accountability from governments however despite the conceptual attraction of this policy it has never been empirically proven that resource rich countries are actually less transparent than other countries and whether this lack of transparency has had a significant negative effect on economic growth using a relatively new index of transparency that has extensive coverage both across countries and time the results suggest a strong and robust negative causal association running from point resource export revenues to transparency furthermore there is also some evidence that this lack of transparency is associated with a subsequent decrease in economic growth

enhancing food security in south sudan the role of markets and regional trade south sudan faces serious problems of food insecurity due to low levels of domestic food production periodic droughts widespread poverty and since late 2013 renewed armed conflict this article explores market price behavior using cointegration analysis and estimates the effects of production and trade shocks through multimarket model simulations we show that market prices in the capital city juba of both maize and sorghum are cointegrated with import parity prices of these cereals sourced from uganda consistent with observed trade flows model simulations using econometrically estimated demand parameters suggest that private sector imports of maize and wheat would greatly mitigate the potential fall in consumption in the case of a decline in domestic cereal production other simulations indicate that if total imports of cereals are reduced by one third still more than two times the levels of food aid in 2013 because of disruptions to private market flows domestic prices of cereals could rise by 45 or more the article concludes that whatever measures are taken involving national food security reserves it is crucial that government policy serves to maintain incentives for private sector imports to avoid destabilizing market supplies domestic prices and ultimately food consumption of the poor

the anarchy of numbers aid development and cross country empirics the recent literature contains many stories of how foreign aid affects economic growth aid raises growth in countries with good policies or with difficult economic environments or outside the tropics or on average but with diminishing returns the diversity of the results suggests that many are fragile seven important aid growth papers are tested for robustness using 14 minimally arbitrary tests deriving mainly from differences among the studies themselves this approach investigates the importance of potentially arbitrary specification choices while minimizing the arbitrariness in testing choices all of the results appear fragile especially to sample expansion

revisiting cross country poverty convergence in the developing world with a special focus on sub saharan africa abstract the literature on poverty convergence is sparse and much of the empirical evidence relies on ravallion 2012 who found a lack of poverty convergence across some ninety less developed countries ldcs during 1980 2007 this paper revisits cross country poverty convergence using data from the same sources but an extended period of 1980 2014 we find that while poverty convergence remains absent across ldcs it is present in sub saharan africa ssa during the extended period initial poverty canceling the effectiveness of growth in reducing poverty explains the lack of poverty convergence across ldcs while a strong growth effect dominating the adverse effect of initial poverty on growth effectiveness explains the strong poverty convergence found in ssa a direct adverse link between initial poverty and subsequent growth which ravallion 2012 recognized as the main impediment to poverty convergence during 1980 2007 is not found in this study

aid dutch disease and manufacturing growth abstract we examine the effects of aid on the growth of manufacturing using a methodology that exploits the variation within countries and across manufacturing sectors and corrects for possible reverse causality we find that aid inflows have systematic adverse effects on a country s competitiveness as reflected in the lower relative growth rate of exportable industries we provide some evidence suggesting that the channel for these effects is the real exchange rate appreciation caused by aid inflows we conjecture that this may explain in part why it is hard to find robust evidence that foreign aid helps countries grow

sales and consumer inventory temporary price reductions sales are common for many goods and naturally result in a large increase in the quantity sold we explore whether the data support the hypothesis that these increases are at least partly due to demand anticipation at low prices consumers store for future consumption this effect if present has broad economic implications we test the predictions of an inventory model using scanner data with two years of household purchases the results are consistent with an inventory model and suggest that static demand estimates may overestimate price sensitivity

savings and growth in neoclassical growth models a comment on is piketty s second law of capitalism fundamental abstract this note explores the response of saving rates to the rate of income growth in models of optimal growth contrary to the claims in krusell and smith 2015 the sign of this response depends on the consumption intertemporal elasticity of substitution

the long run effect of aid on health evidence from panel cointegration analysis abstractalthough a major objective of aid donors is to improve health outcomes in recipient countries there is relatively little research on whether aid to the health sector leads to improved heal

politics and the effectiveness of foreign aid abstract critics of foreign aid programs have long argued that poverty reflects government failure in this paper i test predictions for aid effectiveness based on an analytical framework that relates aid effectiveness to political regimes i find that aid does not significantly increase investment nor benefit the poor as measured by improvements in human development indicators but it does increase the size of government the impact of aid does not vary according to whether recipient governments are liberal democratic or highly repressive but liberal political regimes and democracies ceteris paribus have on average 30 lower infant mortality than the least free regimes this may be due to greater empowerment of the poor under liberal regimes even though the political elite continues to receive the benefits of aid programs an implication is that short term aid targeted to support new liberal regimes may be a more successful means of reducing poverty than current programs

aid allocation and poverty reduction the authors derive a poverty efficient allocation of aid and compare it with actual aid allocations they build the poverty efficient allocation in two stages first they use new world bank ratings of 20 different aspects of national policy to establish the current relationship between aid policies and growth onto that they add a mapping from growth to poverty reduction which reflects the level and distribution of income they compare the effects of using headcount and poverty gap measures of poverty they find the actual allocation of aid to be radically different from the poverty efficient allocation in the efficient allocation for a given of poverty aid tapers in with policy reform in the actual allocation aid tapers out with reform in the efficient allocation aid is targeted disproportionately to countries with severe poverty and adequate polices the type of country where 74 percent of the world s poor live in the actual allocation such countries receive a much smaller share of aid 56 percent than their share of the world s poor with the present allocation aid is effective in sustainably lifting about 30 million people a year out of absolute poverty with a poverty efficient allocation this would increase to about 80 million people even with political constraints introduced to keep allocations for india and china constant poverty reduction would increase to about 60 million reallocating aid is politically difficult but it may be considerably less difficult than quadrupling aid budgets which is what the authors estimate would be necessary to achieve the same impact on poverty reduction with existing aid allocations

anticipation and environmental regulation abstract when agents expect a change in regulation to change the relative price of new durable goods they may shift purchases forward to avoid compliance costs in the context of new vehicle emission standards prior analyses have not considered this adjustment margin we model the effects of anticipation on sales and retirements of durable goods and test our theory s predictions empirically using the 2007 implementation of heavy duty emission standards we find evidence that anticipation caused a sales spike just before the policy took effect and a symmetric sales slump after implementation which resulted in 31 164 more freight truck sales ahead of the new standard and as much as 118 million in environmental damages over the lifetimes of those vehicles

aid and growth what does the cross country evidence really show abstract we examine the effects of aid on growth in cross sectional and panel data after correcting for the possible bias that poorer or stronger growth may draw aid contributions to recipient co

foreign aid and the question of fungibility this paper analyzes whether the foreign assistance provided for specific categories of expenditure is shifted among them contrary to the wishes of donors it also considers whether aid reduces the tax effort of recipient governments econometric results are presented for the dominican republic that show that the fungibility of aid has resulted in a thwarting of the intentions of donors an attempt is made to account for the observed differences in behavior of individual countries in altering expenditures copyright 1993 by mit press

determinants of food security in southern ethiopia at the household level in the early 1980s a paradigm shift occurred in the field of food security following amartya sens 1981 claims that food insecurity is more of a demand concern affecting the poor s access to food than a supply concern affecting availability of food at the national level despite the wide acceptance of sen s thinking many controversies including the relative importance of supply side versus demand side variables in causing and solving food insecurity have remained in academic and policy circles this study develops a recursive household food security model within the framework of consumer demand and production theories following singh et al 1986 and parses out the relative importance of supply side versus demand side variables in determining household food security in southern ethiopia based on results of a test of full reduced model and the magnitude of changes in conditional probabilities of food security we conclude that the supply side variables are more powerful determinants of food security than the demand side variables

developmental drivers of nutritional change a cross country analysis summary we utilize a rich cross country data set to understand within country changes in nutrition with a focus on the role of general developmental factors we find that economic growth is a strong predictor of nutritional performance as is growth in food production although only in more food insecure countries we find no evidence that infrastructure is directly important but greater asset ownership improved access to health services higher rates of female secondary education and lower fertility rates are all strong predictors of improvements in nutrition we show that national success stories are largely consistent with these findings

the modern history of exchange rate arrangements a reinterpretation we develop a novel system of reclassifying historical exchange rate regimes one key difference between our study and previous classifications is that we employ monthly data on market determined parallel exchange rates going back to 1946 for 153 countries our approach differs from the imf official classification which we show to be only a little better than random it also differs radically from all previous attempts at historical reclassification our classification points to a rethinking of economic performance under alternative exchange rate regimes indeed the breakup of bretton woods had less impact on exchange rate regimes than is popularly believed

does trade openness contribute to food security a dynamic panel analysis abstract despite significant progress in the fight against hunger during the last decades food insecurity remains a major problem in many countries especially developing ones in this study we use a large cross country data to investigate the impact of trade openness and other factors on food security measured by dietary energy consumption we employ a system gmm approach to account for unobserved heterogeneity correlated individual effects and potential endogeneity of the explanatory variables the empirical results reveal that trade openness and economic growth exert positive and significant impacts on dietary energy consumption and also contribute to improvements in dietary diversity the results are robust to the inclusion of additional variables capturing specific agro climatic constraints e g weather related and regional country characteristics and to the sample composition most geographical regions are found to have significantly higher food security levels compared to sub saharan africa additional results indicate that besides calorie consumption trade openness also improves dietary diversity and diet quality related aspects of food security