optimal allocation of energy sources for sustainable development in south korea focus on the electric power generation industry abstract national energy planning has become increasingly complex owing to a pressing need to incorporate sustainability considerations in this context we applied least cost and cost risk optimization models to allocate energy sources for sustainable development in the korean electric power generation industry the least cost model determined an electricity generation mix from 2012 to 2030 that incurs minimum generation cost to meet electricity demand the cost risk model determined electricity generation mixes in 2030 considering the risks associated with each energy source in order to lessen external risks in deriving these optimal electricity generation mixes we considered both conventional and renewable energy sources in conjunction with physical and policy constraints that realistically reflect korean circumstances moreover we accounted for co 2 and external costs within the electricity generation costs for each energy source for sustainable development in korea we conclude that a portion of the coal and gas in the electricity generation mix must be substituted with nuclear and renewable energy furthermore we found that least cost allocation is sub optimal from cost risk perspective and that it limits the adoption of renewables finally we also discuss the implications of decisions taken by the korean government regarding the electricity generation mix for next generation energy planning to achieve sustainability

investment risks in power generation a comparison of fossil fuel and renewable energy dominated markets abstract due to their high capital intensity weather dependent renewable energies res such as solar and wind face considerable investment risks in power markets in addition their uncertain production volumes also affect the investment risks of other plant types through the impact on power prices and residual demand increasing res shares thus potentially increase overall investment risks in power markets which many analysts consider to be a potential problem against this background this paper compares investment risks of different technologies in markets with increasing shares of variable res it further analyses how generation mixes are affected by these investment risks if the risks are evaluated on a stand alone basis or in a plant portfolio context of a private firm for this purpose a stylized investment and dispatch model is used to conduct monte carlo simulations from which risk measures are derived the results show that capital intensive res face the highest stand alone risks since their profits are most affected by the power price risk however the results further indicate that the stand alone risks of variable res decrease with their share in the market because of a negative correlation of output and price risk in addition res have a risk benefit in firm plant portfolios in terms of constituting a hedge against losses of fossil fuel plants this positive portfolio effect however rapidly decreases and becomes negative with increasing res shares in the market

business case uncertainty of power plants in future energy systems with wind power abstract the european power sector is transforming due to climate policies and an increased deployment of intermittent res the sector will require thermal power plants for the decades to come but their business cases are negatively affected by this transformation this study presents a novel tool to quantify the effect of policy price and project related uncertainties on power plant business cases this tool can support policymakers in stimulating necessary investments in new thermal generation capacity we find that these investments are currently unsound power plants recoup on average 12 to 59 of their initial investment future climate policy i e the co 2 price has a very strong impact on business cases affects the profitability by 5 40 points the impact of the deployment of wind power is average 2 8 point difference between 10 and 21 wind penetration variations in annual wind power production barely affect the profitability variation of 1 point to stimulate new investments policymakers should first decrease the uncertainty in business cases caused by policy durable climate policy is especially important also policies to increase the profits of thermal power plants should be carefully considered and implemented this combined approach will reduce the revenue gap that needs to be bridged by supportive policies

greenhouse gas emission and renewable energy sources for sustainable development in bangladesh abstract bangladesh is an energy starving country the country will be on one of the fast growing power markets with its population and growing energy demand per person its fast growing urbanization and its socio economic development at present the potential demand of power is 5569 mw and the supply is below 4000 mw the country is dependent on the imported petroleum that is big burden on the economy the per capita emission is only 0 2667 tonne per person still much below the world leading countries 19 8 tonne per person for usa however bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable to climate change effect in the world in this regard renewable energy resources appear to be the one of the most efficient and effective solution for clean and sustainable energy development in bangladesh biomass is the dominating source of energy in bangladesh biomass energy is used in a very traditional way biomass conversion to energy in the form of liquid gaseous and solid pellet or briquette could be a viable option to reduce the pressure on the conventional fossil fuel the geographical location of bangladesh has several advantages for extensive use of grid connected solar electricity and stand alone solar pv system this article presents a review of the potential and utilization of the renewable energy sources in bangladesh

different shades of green global oil and gas companies and renewable energy abstract the long term energy transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy raises critical questions about the future of oil and gas firms this study asks why some oil and gas firms are committed to renewable energy while others continue to maintain a distinct fossil fuels focus with little or no investment in renewable energy the analysis reveals that there is a wide range in the degree to which oil and gas firms have invested in renewable energy some firms have no investments and others have investments in multiple renewable energy technologies across many countries we examine a combination of country based institutional factors and firm based knowledge and experience factors that could impact oil and gas firms decisions to invest in renewable energy activity regulative and normative pressures impacted renewable energy investments as did environmental citizenship and the degree of internationalization the study s integration of country level factors with firm level experiences provides insights into how firms are dealing with the energy transition by examining areas such as sustainability and regulatory policy the paper sheds light on the ways in which scholars can tap into measures and methods that can extend traditional ib research

motives to adopt renewable electricity technologies evidence from sweden the diffusion of renewable electricity technologies rets has to speed up for countries to reach their often ambitious targets for renewable energy generation this requires a large number of actors including individuals companies and other organizations to adopt rets policies will most likely be needed to induce adoption but there is limited knowledge about what motivates ret adoption the purpose of this paper is to complement and expand the available empirical evidence regarding motives to adopt rets through a survey to over 600 ret adopters in sweden the main finding of the study is that there are many different motives to adopt rets and that ret adopters are a heterogeneous group with regard to motives although environmental concerns interest in the technology access to an re resource and prospects to generate economic revenues are important motives in general adopters differ with regard to how large importance they attach to the same motive and each adopter can also have several different motives to adopt there are also differences in motives between adopter categories especially independent power producers vs individuals and diversified companies and between rets especially wind power vs solar power this implies that a variety of policy instruments might be needed to induce further adoption of a variety of rets by a variety of adopter categories

a portfolio risk analysis on electricity supply planning abstract conventional electricity planning selects from a range of alternative technologies based on the least cost method without assessing cost related risks the current approach to determining energy generation portfolios creates a preference for fossil fuel consequently this preference results in increased exposure to recent fluctuations in fossil fuel prices particularly for countries heavily depend on imported energy this paper applies portfolio theory in conventional electricity planning with taiwan as a case study the model objective is to minimize the risk weighted present value of total generation cost both the present value of generating cost and risk variance of the generating cost are considered risk of generating cost is introduced for volatile fuel prices and uncertainty of technological change and capital cost reduction the impact of risk levels on the portfolio of power generation technologies is also examined to provide some valuable policy suggestions study results indicate that replacing fossil fuel with renewable energy helps reduce generating cost risk however due to limited renewable development potential in taiwan there is an upper bound of 15 on the maximum share of renewable energy in the generating portfolio in the meantime reevaluating the current nuclear energy policy for reduced exposure to fossil fuel price fluctuations is worthwhile

analyzing korean consumers latent preferences for electricity generation sources with a hierarchical bayesian logit model in a discrete choice experiment generally consumers use electricity without considering the source the electricity was generated from since different energy sources exert varying effects on society it is necessary to analyze consumers latent preference for electricity generation sources the present study estimates korean consumers marginal utility and an appropriate generation mix is derived using the hierarchical bayesian logit model in a discrete choice experiment the results show that consumers consider the danger posed by the source of electricity as the most important factor among the effects of electricity generation sources additionally korean consumers wish to reduce the contribution of nuclear power from the existing 32 11 and increase that of renewable energy from the existing 4 32

examining the patterns of innovation in low carbon energy science and technology publications and patents of asian emerging economies this paper focuses on selected asian emerging economies the study employs publications and patents as proxies for science and technology and its analysis is divided into three main parts production trends catching up trends and patterns of convergence the findings resulted in four salient points to be considered by policy makers 1 asean 4 lagged significantly behind the more advanced economies korea taiwan and china even though their performance was identical in the early 1990s china has forged ahead in terms of scientific publications and patents production but lags behind in patents quality 2 compared to the world average the region as a whole has high potential to forge ahead in low carbon energy scientific production 3 advanced economies in asia kicked off their low carbon energy science and technology development more from technological rather than scientific production with no straightforward co evolution between the two competencies this demonstrates the need for a strong science based technological foundation and a high level of dynamism for low carbon energy technology development and 4 the economies demonstrated contrasting development trends in their focus between the supply and demand sides of energy technology development the performance of the advanced economies is higher in demand side low carbon energy innovations

policies and legislation driving taiwan s development of renewable energy abstract under the current wave of international responses to the growing threat of climate change taiwan cannot afford to step back from its goal of advancing its renewable energy strengthening its energy self sufficiency and energy security this paper will first analyze the high level dependency structure of taiwan s energy demands then we will explore taiwan current situation in terms of renewable energy development furthermore from an overview of the course of changes and development in taiwan s energy policy highlight the commitment to and aims of taiwan s renewable energy development made by the government at the annual national energy conference fourth we shall analyse technological r d incentives taxes market reforms and other related policy tools fifth in light of public announcements and budgets set in recent years for taiwan s renewable energy research plan highlight main strategies being given impetus by the government sixth the author will discuss the implications of recent significant legal reforms to the development of renewable energy in taiwan and from the correlating aspects of industrial structures and energy consumption take the first steps in emphasizing the urgent need for adjustments to be made to taiwan s industrial structure finally this paper will conclude by examining current policies legislation and strategies which are in place to promote this area in taiwan and discuss the potential competitiveness and future scenarios which the development of renewable energy could mean for taiwan

sustainable competitive advantage combining institutional and resource based views this article suggests that the context and process of resource selection have an important influence on firm heterogeneity and sustainable competitive advantage it is argued that a firm s sustainable advantage depends on its ability to manage the institutional context of its resource decisions a firm s institutional context includes its internal culture as well as broader influences from the state society and interfirm relations that define socially acceptable economic behavior a process model of firm heterogeneity is proposed that combines the insights of a resource based view with the institutional perspective from organization theory normative rationality institutional isolating mechanisms and institutional sources of firm homogeneity are proposed as determinants of rent potential that complement and extend resource based explanations of firm variation and sustainable competitive advantage the article suggests that both resource capital and institutional capital are indispensable to sustainable competitive advantage 1997 john wiley sons ltd

the effects of wind generation capacity on electricity prices and generation costs a monte carlo analysis abstractwe use monte carlo analysis to examine the potential of increased renewable generation to provide a hedge against variability in energy prices and costs fuel costs electricity demand and wind generation are allowed to vary and a unit commitment and economic dispatch algorithm is employed to produce cost minimizing generation schedules under different levels of installed wind capacity increased wind capacity reduces the mean and the variance of production costs but only the variance of electricity prices wind generators see their market revenues increase while consumer payments and fossil generator profits do not considerably vary as wind capacity increases risk aversion is captured by considering the conditional value at risk for both consumers and producers the optimal level of wind generation increases as risk aversion increases due to the potential of wind to act as a hedge against very high electricity prices in high fuel price scenarios

the development of renewable energy power in india which policies have been effective abstract the international energy agency has identified the development of renewable energy sources as a key element to mitigate climate change at the same time it has projected india to be the second largest contributor to the increase in global energy demand to 2035 india hence faces a significant challenge to ensure its energy security by diversifying its power generation mix in the wake of the creation of a green climate fund in cancun this paper studies empirically the effect of the introduction of the electricity act 2003 and the tariff policy 2006 as well as the implementation of feed in tariffs and minimum quotas on clean electricity sourcing on the development of grid connected renewable energy power in nine indian states over the period 2001 2009 results suggest that the passing of the tariff policy 2006 state level policies quantity based instruments and a greater participation of the private sector have played a key role in promoting the development of installed capacity from renewable energy power in the nine states of the sample

that s how we roll an experiment on rollover risk abstract we design a continuous time experiment to study how different short term credit maturities interact with the state of the economy we find that when the economy is in a boom long maturities stabilize the credit market yet when in a downturn such maturities increase the likelihood of credit freezes this result has important regulatory implications as it suggests that a policy aimed at reducing maturity mismatch in short term credit markets might backfire during a recession

exact consumer s surplus and deadweight loss consumer s surplus is a widely used tool in applied welfare economics both economic theorists and cost benefit analysis often use consumer s surplus despite its somewhat dubious reputation the basic idea is to evaluate the value to a consumer or his willingness to pay for a change in price of a good from say pricep to pricep because price changes affect consumer welfare an evaluation of this effect is often a key input to public policy decisions yet consumer s surplus is probably the most controversial of widely used economic concepts both paul samuelson and ian little conclude that the economics profession would be better off without it it is my feeling of the situation that substantial agreement exists on the correct quantities to be measured the amount the consumer would pay or would need to be paid to be just as well off after the price change as he was before the price change the quantities correspond to john hicks compensating variation measures an alternative measure which takes ex post price change utility as the basis of comparison is hicks equivalent variation the controversy arises in the measurement of these quantities the usual measurement procedure is to use the area to the left of the marshallian market demand curve between two price levels jules dupuit originated this measure of welfare change and alfred marshall and hicks derived appropriate conditions for its use the primary condition for the area to the left of the demand curve to correspond to the compensating variation is to have constant marginal utility of income marshall gave this condition and if it holds the same quantity will be derived as the area to the left of the compensated hicksian demand curve this area to the left of the compensated demand curve is exactly what the compensating variation and equivalent variation measure thus the constant marginal utility of income is a sufficient condition for marshallian consumer s surplus to be equal to hicks consumer s surplus in this case arnold harberger s plea to use the welfare triangle as one half times the product of the price change times the quantity change to measure deadweight loss corresponds to the correct theoretical amount of welfare change in a recent paper robert willig derives bounds for the percentage difference between the correct measure of either the compensating or equivalent variation and the marshallian measure derived form the market demand curve his bounds which depend on the income elasticity of demand for the single good in the region of price change being considered as well as the proportion of the consumer s income spent on the good demonstrate that the marshallian consumer s surplus is often a good approximation to hicks consumer s surplus the fact that the proportion of the consumer s income spent matters as well as the income elasticity was first pointed out by harold hotelling willig contends that the approximation error will be less than the errors involved in estimating the demand curve thus he hopes to remove the need for apology that applied economists often need to give to theorists who remark on the inappropriateness of using marshallian consumer s surplus to measure welfare change however in this paper i show that for the case primarily considered by willig of a single price change which is also the situation in which consumer s surplus is often used in applied work no approximation is necessary professor of economics massachusetts institute of technology and research associate national bureau of economic research i would like to thank peter diamond erwin diewert daniel mcfadden robert merton robert solow hal varian joel yellin and the referees for help and comments research support from the national science foundation is acknowledged the reason that we still have two rather than one of samuelson s six measures of consumer s surplus arises from an index number problem of the correct basis for the welfare comparison i will give both measures but plan to concentrate on the compensating variation

impact of energy efficiency policy to productive efficiency of electricity distribution industry in the philippines abstract the study analyzes the productive efficiency and simulates the effect of the energy efficiency policy on the productive efficiency of the electricity distribution industry in the philippines using data envelopment analysis dea the study finds that the main source of technical inefficiency in the distribution utilities is scale inefficiency moreover the study finds that with dsm electricity savings targets the technical efficiency of the industry would slightly improve significant improvement of technical efficiency is furthermore found with system loss reduction targets the paper concludes that the energy efficiency policy which benefits the overall economy and whole electricity supply industry results also in productive efficiency improvement in the distribution sector of the industry

scaling up finance for off grid renewable energy the role of aggregation and spatial diversification in derisking investments in mini grids for rural electrification in india abstract today about 1 1 billion people lack access to electricity worldwide it is estimated that annual investments of 48 billion usd are required to meet the target of the sustainable development goals of providing universal electricity access by 2030 the need for private investments to meet this target is evident but small scale electrification projects are often unattractive for private investors due to unfavourable risk return profiles and small investment volumes both issues can potentially be addressed by aggregating projects into diversified portfolios an approach commonly used by investors in several contexts but little investigated in the context of rural electrification this paper addresses the question of how spatial diversity in a portfolio can be used to reduce investment risks and increase investment volumes through a mixed method approach involving three steps i identification and classification of investment risks for renewable energy mini grid projects ii qualitative analysis of the correlations between investment risks for different projects through interviews and iii quantitative estimation of the cost of capital and derisking effects of spatial diversification strategies for an experimental portfolio in india we discuss the implications for policymakers in promoting and facilitating the ability of private sector investors to aggregate small scale electrification investments

collusion as public monitoring becomes noisy experimental evidence this paper uses laboratory experiments to test the implications of the theory of repeated games on equilibrium payoffs and estimate strategies in an infinitely repeated prisoners dilemma game with imperfect public monitoring we find that subjects payoffs i decrease as noise increases and ii are lower than the theoretical maximum for low noise but exceed it for high noise under the assumption that the subjects strategy uses thresholds on the public signal for transition between cooperation and punishment states we find that the best fitting strategy simply compares the most recent public signal against a single threshold

comparing the innovation effects of support schemes for renewable electricity technologies a function of innovation approach abstract the aim of this paper is to provide a comparative assessment of the innovation effects of instruments which support the diffusion of renewable electricity technologies with a functions oriented technological innovation system perspective the paper provides a link between two major streams of the literature the functions of innovation systems and the literature on renewable electricity support schemes we show that when a functional perspective is adopted feed in tariffs are likely to be superior to other policy instruments quotas with tradable green certificates and tendering although they still need to be complemented with other instruments most importantly direct r d support furthermore those innovation effects are affected by the specific design elements of the instruments chosen

cooperation in the finitely repeated prisoner s dilemma more than half a century after the first experiment on the finitely repeated prisoner s dilemma evidence on whether cooperation decreases with experience as suggested by backward induction remains inconclusive this paper provides a meta analysis of prior experimental research and reports the results of a new experiment to elucidate how cooperation varies with the environment in this canonical game we describe forces that affect initial play formation of cooperation and unraveling breakdown of cooperation first contrary to the backward induction prediction the parameters of the repeated game have a significant effect on initial cooperation we identify how these parameters impact the value of cooperation as captured by the size of the basin of attraction of always defect to account for an important part of this effect second despite these initial differences the evolution of behavior is consistent with the unraveling logic of backward induction for all parameter combinations importantly despite the seemingly contradictory results across studies this paper establishes a systematic pattern of behavior subjects converge to use threshold strategies that conditionally cooperate until a threshold round and conditional on establishing cooperation the first defection round moves earlier with experience simulation results generated from a learning model estimated at the subject level provide insights into the long term dynamics and the forces that slow down the unraveling of cooperation

rational cooperation in the finitely repeated prisoner s dilemma experimental evidence this paper presents experiments designed to examine the sequential equilibrium reputation hypothesis in the finitely repeated prisoner s dilemma the authors test the hypothesis by controlling the subjects ability to build reputations and by manipulating their beliefs that their opponent is irrational or altruistic the responses of subjects strongly support the sequential equilibrium prediction the results also suggest an important role for homemade altruism that is a natural tendency to cooperate that subjects bring to the experiment from the outside the authors find that there may be no difference between the beliefs that an opponent is altruistic and the actual chance it is so copyright 1993 by royal economic society

portfolio optimization of renewable energy assets hydro wind and photovoltaic energy in the regulated market in brazil abstract this study proposes a methodology for risk analysis and portfolio optimization of power generation assets with hydro wind and solar power considering the regulated contracting environment and the mechanism for reallocation of energy in brazil innovative stochastic models are used to generate synthetic time series for the random variables water inflow wind speed solar irradiance temperature of the photovoltaic panel and average generation capacity of the mechanism for reallocation of energy the simulation is implemented using the monte carlo method associated with a cholesky decomposition an economic approach is presented taking into account taxation and financing as well as the markowitz portfolio theory the results show that the initial correlation between the energy resources is altered by the cash flow model and mainly by the debt in the diversification process the complementarity between sources helps to reduce the economic risk the increase in debt increases the correlation decreases the return and risk and consequently affects the diversification process and economic results the mechanism for reallocation of energy significantly reduces the hydroelectric economic risk and increases the financial return which directly benefits the formation of portfolios

using renewables to hedge against future electricity industry uncertainties an australian case study abstract a generation portfolio modelling was employed to assess the expected costs cost risk and emissions of different generation portfolios in the australian national electricity market nem under highly uncertain gas prices carbon pricing policy and electricity demand outcomes were modelled for 396 possible generation portfolios each with 10 000 simulations of possible fuel and carbon prices and electricity demands in 2030 the lowest expected cost generation portfolio includes 60 renewable energy increasing the renewable proportion to 75 slightly increased expected cost by 0 2 mwh but significantly decreased the standard deviation of cost representing the cost risk increasing the renewable proportion from the present 15 to 75 by 2030 is found to decrease expected wholesale electricity costs by 17 mwh fossil fuel intensive portfolios have substantial cost risk associated with high uncertainty in future gas and carbon prices renewables can effectively mitigate cost risk associated with gas and carbon price uncertainty this is found to be robust to a wide range of carbon pricing assumptions this modelling suggests that policy mechanisms to promote an increase in renewable generation towards a level of 75 by 2030 would minimise costs to consumers and mitigate the risk of extreme electricity prices due to uncertain gas and carbon prices

the evolution of cooperation in infinitely repeated games experimental evidence 1 for example in infinitely repeated prisoner s dilemma games with patient agents both cooperate and defect may be played in equilibrium even though the theory of infinitely repeated games has been used to explain cooperation in a variety of environments no definitive solution has been provided to the problem of equilibrium selection when both cooperation and defection are possible equilibrium outcomes which one should we expect to prevail previous experimental evidence has shown that subjects often fail to coordinate on a specific equilibrium when they play a small number of infinitely repeated games some subjects attempt to establish cooperative agreements while others defect but how would behavior evolve as subjects learn from previous repeated games would cooperation prevail when it can be supported in equilibrium or will subjects learn

gas versus oil prices the impact of shale gas abstract what significance will developments in shale gas production have for european gas prices some commentators paint a gloomy picture of the future gas markets but most forecasts for the oil market are positive consequently a view appears to prevail that price trends will differ sharply between oil and gas markets this article looks at developments in us shale gas production and discusses their impact on the movement of european gas prices the relationship between oil and gas prices over time is also analysed

the european low carbon mix for 2030 the role of renewable energy sources in an environmentally and socially efficient approach abstract the european union s commitment to increase the presence of renewable energy sources in its portfolio has resulted in better levels of security of supply competitiveness and environmental sustainability this proposed work reviews european legislation regarding the promotion of renewable energy sources as well as the bibliography that applies portfolio theory methodology to energy policy this double revision gives rise to the question whether the share limits of renewable energy technologies anticipated for the european power mix in 2020 and 2030 are actually efficient the optimization model corrects for the attractiveness of renewable energy sources as opposed to conventional sources in terms of costs risks and pollutant gas emissions this model successfully and explicitly identifies the positive effect on the environment that is represented by the inclusion of renewable energy sources in the portfolio the goal is to minimize the cost and risk that society must bear to produce electricity in addition to compliance with european pollutant gas co2 so2 nox and pm objectives the results for 2020 indicate that the eu would not be able to reach its emissions reduction goals with the anticipated shares of renewable energy sources in 2030 achieving a lower emissions portfolio would not mean taking on greater costs although it would be necessary to assume a greater level of risk the anticipated shares of renewable energy sources 5 and fossil fuel technologies 15 would be overdimensioned in the forecasts analyzed in terms of technologies both nuclear and wind energy stand out both with shares above 20 on the contrary biomass and solar photovoltaic energies would be unnecessary in order to reach efficiency in any case one thing is clear the eu would be the master of its energy future if it prioritizes the importance of renewable energy sources in its efficient portfolio

risk aversion in a dynamic asset allocation experiment we conduct a controlled laboratory experiment in the spirit of merton 1971 in which subjects dynamically choose their portfolio allocation between a risk free and risky asset using the optimal allocation of an investor with hyperbolic absolute risk aversion hara utility we fit the experimental choices to characterize the risk profile of our participants despite substantial heterogeneity decreasing absolute risk aversion and increasing relative risk aversion are the predominant types we also find some evidence of increased risk taking after a gain finally the session level risk attitudes show a different profile than the individual descriptions of risk attitudes

economics of pooling small local electricity prosumers lcoe self consumption abstract the arrival of small scale decentralized energy installations coincides with the emergence of so called prosumers entities households that are producer and consumer of energy in one this research focuses on an electricity prosumer model in the context of the uk market levelized cost of electricity lcoe for photovoltaic pv and wind energy will be modeled for six uk sites additionally self consumption levels for two different load profiles and technologies will be estimated per site the simulations are modeled with homer software and multiple inputs will be varied including natural resource equipment cost maintenance cost equipment life expectancy cost of capital project life and load profiles the modeled self consumption levels show significant differences and varied between 31 and 72 depending on load profile itself and re technologies mixes modeled the pooling of prosumers implied by lower load profile volatility proved to be beneficial to self consumption levels in the modeled scenarios up to 17 6 lcoe showed significant ranges depending on the input parameters and their combination 10 55 p kw h for pv and 2 19 p kw h for wind the combination of these factors is decisive for the final lcoe and the negative effects of less benign factors can be compensated by other parameters when compared to current electricity retail prices of around 15 p kw h around 97 of wind sites and around 4 of pv scenarios implied lcoe reached grid parity the self consumption levels and lcoe analysis indicate the viability of electricity prosumer models

expanding versus greening long term energy and emission transitions in mozambique abstract mozambique is rapidly emerging as one of the leading energy producers in africa we develop a comprehensive scenario analysis to review the energy revolution in mozambique like much of africa mozambique features a competition between development of its vast reserves of renewable energy and fossil fuels we assess the implied energy and emissions transitions as well as the potential impact of a range of sustainable policy options our analysis reveals an emerging energy dichotomy where a spectacular expansion of energy production goes together with an only gradual energy consumption transition we find that over time the share of modern renewable energy sources tends to marginalize in the energy production mix while remaining stable in the energy consumption mix about one third of the ghg emissions associated with energy production can be linked to energy export also we find that sustainable energy policies at the supply side lead to far higher cumulative emission reductions than demand side policies finally we show that even in the long run a complete ban on thermal electricity generation capacity in mozambique would by no means lead to shortages in the domestic electricity market but only slightly limit potential electricity export

continuous time repeated games in this paper the authors develop a model of strategic behavior in continuous time games of complete information which includes conventional repeated games in discrete time as a special case the model developed here admits a very large class of strategies that allows one to extend the repeated game model to continuous time the set of equilibria in this game may be large in many cases equal to the feasible individually rational set of payoff s the authors also study the restriction of renegotiation proofness in this framework and apply these results to a cournot duopoly example copyright 1993 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

rejecting renewables the socio technical impediments to renewable electricity in the united states if renewable power systems deliver such impressive benefits why do they still provide only 3 percent of national electricity generation in the united states as an answer this article demonstrates that the impediments to renewable power are socio technical a term that encompasses the technological social political regulatory and cultural aspects of electricity supply and use extensive interviews of public utility commissioners utility managers system operators manufacturers researchers business owners and ordinary consumers reveal that it is these socio technical barriers that often explain why wind solar biomass geothermal and hydroelectric power sources are not embraced utility operators reject renewable resources because they are trained to think only in terms of big conventional power plants consumers practically ignore renewable power systems because they are not given accurate price signals about electricity consumption intentional market distortions such as subsidies and unintentional market distortions such as split incentives prevent consumers from becoming fully invested in their electricity choices as a result newer and cleaner technologies that may offer social and environmental benefits but are not consistent with the dominant paradigm of the electricity industry continue to face comparative rejection

sustainable management of renewable resources an experimental investigation in continuous time abstractthis study addresses one of the most basic questions in renewable resource management the ability of economic agents to exploit a renewable resource in an efficient and sustainable manner in a laboratory experiment subjects are presented with renewable resource extraction problems where optimal management will lead to a stable steady state a test of sustainability of the extraction practices shows that extraction behaviour results in steady states only 56 of the time the mode of the steady state distribution coincides with the optimal steady state extraction the trade off between accruing a higher payoff in the present and sustaining the resource for future exploitation leads to suboptimal behaviours such as initial overextraction of the resource compared to the optimal extraction policy costly downward adjustment of the extraction later in time and settling down for lower long run resource and extraction the suboptimal behaviours lead to 17 loss in efficiency on average in terms of th

accounting for fuel price risk when comparing renewable to gas fired generation the role of forward natural gas prices abstract unlike natural gas fired generation renewable generation e g from wind solar and geothermal power is largely immune to fuel price risk if ratepayers are rational and value long term price stability then contrary to common practice any comparison of the levelized cost of renewable to gas fired generation should be based on a hedged gas price input rather than an uncertain gas price forecast this paper compares natural gas prices that can be locked in through futures swaps and physical supply contracts to contemporaneous long term forecasts of spot gas prices we find that from 2000 to 2003 forward gas prices for terms of 2 10 years have been considerably higher than most contemporaneous long term gas price forecasts this difference is striking and implies that comparisons between renewable and gas fired generation based on these forecasts over this period have arguably yielded results that are biased in favor of gas fired generation

interactions among energy consumption economic development and greenhouse gas emissions in japan after world war ii abstract the long term dynamic changes in the triad energy consumption economic development and greenhouse gas ghg emissions in japan after world war ii were quantified and the interactions among them were analyzed based on an integrated suite of energy emergy and economic indices the results quantitatively showed that two different energy strategy periods one before 1973 using new sources of higher quality energy and one after 1973 focused on improving the efficiency of energy generation methods could explain the linear increase in national economic development in japan over the 66 years from 1946 to 2011 japan benefited both ecologically and economically from importing fossil fuels which accounted for 8 7 of the nominal gdp of japan averaged over the entire study period the total environmental impacts of ghg i e co 2 ch 4 and n 2 o emissions measured by emergy decreased after 1997 and since 2009 they have remained lower than 76 of the emissions in 1990 even though no decrease in the global warming impact based on the weight of co 2 was observed emergy methods and energy systems models revealed aspects of the complicated interactions among energy consumption economic development and the potential environmental impact of ghg emissions which formerly had not been recognized

forward looking behavior in hawk dove games in endogenous networks experimental evidence abstract we conduct an experiment in continuous time every subject can change her links to others and her action in a hawk dove game which she plays bilaterally with each of her linked partners at any time we hypothesize that norms exist regarding who establishes and thus pays for links and that players take these norms into account when deciding on their strategy for such limitedly forward looking players who consider others linking reactions we introduce a strategy adaptation rule anticipatory better reply rule abr and a related stability criterion reaction anticipatingly stable ras our data support our assumption on linking reactions subjects seem to take these reactions into account when deciding to switch from hawk to dove abr behavior however better reply behavior is prevalent when short term profits allure ras configurations occur more often than nash equilibria of the base game however with respect to stability they perform similar

a vision on the opportunities policies and coping strategies for the energy security and green energy development in malaysia abstract energy security management remains a complex and fragmented interplay between the population growth urbanization economical development and the living environment today green technology application has been the prime contributor and an indispensable factor to preserve the long term reliability of energy supply this agenda has called for an integrated adaptive coordinated environmentally oriented and participatory approach to the protection of renewable resources malaysia endowed with its rich natural resources and diversity recognizes the need to adopt a sound developmental framework to transform the country s energy management landscape into a high quality and excellent level parallel to this development both government and non governmental organizations continue to advocate national efforts to explore alternative energy and improve the dynamic energy growth in a cost effective manner the plan espouses the establishment of ocean energy geothermal power hydropower wind power hydrogen fuel cell nuclear energy biodiesel and bioethanol processing industries the impetus is accompanied by the integration of environmental protection rules and boosted by the implementation of new energy policies the present work attempts to address the opportunities dynamic pressure and coping strategies of energy security and green energy development in malaysia the present and future outlooks of renewable and non renewable energy are elucidated besides the research breakthroughs and joint co operations for the promotion of green energy management are outlined

globalizing carbon lock in this paper extends the arguments surrounding carbon lock in elaborated in unruh energy policy 28 2000 817 30 2002 317 to countries currently undergoing industrialization it argues that for numerous reasons industrializing countries are unlikely to leapfrog carbon intensive energy development on the contrary carbon lock in may be globalizing and could further constrain climate change mitigation options it is then argued that many policy recommendations ignore carbon lock in possibly limiting their potential for successful implementation the paper then discusses four policy approaches that appear to have advantages given lock in conditions it is recognized however that relative ease of implementation does not necessarily equate with superiority instead it is merely a path dependent outcome of past development decisions pursuing policies on the basis of relative implementation ease may help address the issue of climate change but could also result in sub optimal outcomes along other dimensions of sustainable development

investments and cleaner energy production a portfolio analysis in the italian electricity market abstract the recent climate change global warming environmental disasters and the economic crisis are only the first signs of the failure of an economic system that for too long shows an uncontrolled utilization of the planet wealth the italian electricity market which is strongly dependent on hydrocarbons only in recent years has seen a first attempt to change towards renewable resources for electricity production aimed at self consumption and for feeding into the grid this paper presents an economic analysis whose purpose is to evaluate the profitability of investments in renewable technologies for the production of electricity each renewable source has its own profitability dependent on a number of factors and subject to market fluctuations cost and frequent changes in the incentive policies applying portfolio theory is possible to select the right mix of renewable energy sources and simulate its evolution moreover the presented analysis can be useful for energy planners to select future green scenarios finalized to the reduction of emissions and energy imports through the increasing use of renewable energy

the relation between alternative benefit measures for quantity constrained price subsidies abstract in this paper we analyse the relation between hicks equivalent and compensating variations and marshallian consumer s surplus for quantity constrained price subsidies using a set of appropriately defined shadow prices we develop expressions that allow straightforward comparison of the alternative measures of welfare change it turns out that the relative magnitude of the benefit measures crucially depends on the level of the constraint on the subsidized good different cases are considered among other findings it is shown that depending on the constraint marshallian benefit may substantially overestimate or underestimate the equivalent variation

renewable energy diffusion in asia can it happen without government support the dramatically increasing population of asia necessitates equally as dramatic increase in energy supply to meet demand rapidly increasing energy demand is a major concern for asian countries because the increase in demand is being met through the increased use of fossil fuel supply largely domestic coal and imported fuel renewable energy supply presents a lower emission pathway that could be a viable option for steering off the higher emissions path however several market economic institutional technical and socio cultural barriers hinder countries in moving from high to low emission pathway following a discussion on the rising demand for energy in asia and the prospects of partly satisfying it with renewable energy we outline the reasons for government support to tackle the barriers for widespread diffusion of grid based renewable energy additionally we also discuss workable models for strategic government intervention to support diffusion of grid based renewable energy in asia

portfolio applications in electricity markets review private investor and manager perspective trends abstract the private sector plays a major role in the expansion and operation of power systems in most countries especially those running liberalized electricity markets policymakers have the task of inducing private agents through their regulatory designs to make decisions that point toward social welfare maximization conversely it is a task of private agents to protect themselves against the risks of the sector including regulatory risks international fuel price uncertainty climate change policies natural resource availability electricity demand uncertainty co2 clearance prices etc instead of hiding all of these risks within the total project costs and losing competitiveness private agents can use diversification as a strategy to deal with them this paper presents a review of the main applications voids and challenges of portfolio optimization for two key agents of the private sector investors and managers the problem of the investor is to design a technology portfolio to invest in that maximizes its expected returns and limits risks while the manager has to design a portfolio of financial physical instruments long term contracts futures etc to sell buy electricity and hedge against price risks we have found two fundamental issues in the literature the first and most important is excessive confidence in historical data and statistical analysis for predicting future price behavior for a changing future in detriment of more structural analysis structural analysis can include particularities of modern power systems such as future transmission changes congestion operational constraints ramps new entrants new technologies and new demand grow patterns that cannot be taken into account by simply analyzing price historical values the second is the omission of renewable complementarities which is a proven characteristic of dispersed renewable plants that may have important risk mitigation effects although it has largely been ignored in portfolio analysis due to insufficient data modeling limitations and computational complexity

real options analysis for renewable energy investment decisions in developing countries abstract renewable energy projects in developing countries should provide clean energy supply as well as support sustainable economic development to this end risks arising from uncertainties such as rapidly changing technologies and host government conditions should be carefully addressed however traditional methods for economic assessment are not adequate to support decision making regarding investments in renewable energy this paper proposes a real options analysis framework as a tool to assess renewable energy investment in developing countries a case study involving a hydropower project in indonesia was conducted to validate and verify the proposed framework this framework is expected to help host countries and investors assess renewable energy projects with high volatility and risk

diversification of fuel costs accounting for load variation a practical mathematical programming model for the strategic fuel diversification problem is presented the model is designed to consider the tradeoffs between the expected costs of investments in capacity operating and maintenance costs average fuel costs and the variability of fuel costs in addition the model is designed to take the load curve into account at a high degree of resolution while keeping the computational burden at a practical level the model is illustrated with a case study for indiana s power generation system the model reveals that an effective means of reducing the volatility of the system level fuel costs is through the reduction of dependence on coal fired generation with an attendant shift towards nuclear generation model results indicate that about a 25 reduction in the standard deviation of the generation costs can be achieved with about a 20 25 increase in average fuel costs scenarios that incorporate costs for carbon dioxide emissions or a moratorium on nuclear capacity additions are also presented

a representation theorem for guilt aversion guilt aversion has been shown to play an important role in economic decision making in this paper we take an axiomatic approach to guilt by deducing a utility representation from a list of easily interpretable assumptions on an agent s preferences it turns out that our logarithmic representation can mitigate the problem of multiplicity of equilibria to which psychological games are prone we apply the model in three well known games and show that its predictions are consistent with experimental observations

the japanese energy sector current situation and future paths abstract as the world s third leading economy and a major importer of fuels the choice of future energy paths and policies that japan makes in the next few years will have a significant influence on the energy security of the world as a whole and of the northeast asia region in particular in this article we describe the current status of and recent trends in the japanese energy sector including energy demand and supply by fuel and by sector we then discuss the current energy policy situation in japan focusing on policies related to climate change targets renewable energy development and deployment liberalization of energy markets and the evolution of the japanese nuclear power sector the final section of the article presents the structure of the japan leap long range energy alternatives planning software system dataset describes several alternative energy paths for japan with an emphasis on alternative paths for nuclear power development and ghg emission abatement and touches upon key current issues of energy policy facing japan as reflected in the modeling inputs and results

who invests in renewable electricity production empirical evidence and suggestions for further research transforming energy systems to fulfill the needs of a low carbon economy requires large investments in renewable electricity production res e recent literature underlines the need to take a closer look at the composition of the res e investor group in order to understand the motives and investment processes of different types of investors however existing energy policies generally consider res e investments made on a regional or national level and target investors who evaluate their res e investments according to least cost high profit criteria we present empirical evidence to show that res e investments are made by a heterogeneous group of investors that a variety of investors exist and that their formation varies among the different types of renewable sources this has direct implications for our understanding of the investment process in res e and for the study of motives and driving forces of res e investors we introduce a multi dimensional framework for analyzing differences between categories of investors which not only considers to the standard economic dimension which is predominant in the contemporary energy literature but also considers the entrepreneurship innovation adoption and institutional dimensions the framework emphasizes the influence of four main investor related factors on the investment process which should be studied in future research motives background resources and personal characteristics

efficient methods of measuring welfare change and compensated income in terms of ordinary demand functions a utility maximizing consumer with a completely known system of ordinary demand functions q h p c is considered let p qo and p q be two arbitrary equilibrium situations the problem is to evaluate in which of the situations the utility is higher without knowing the utility function revealed preference theory tells that the ordinary demand functions which are in principle observable contain enough information to solve the problem remaining difficulties are therefore mainly computational we present how the compensated income c i c p qo and the compensated demand h p cl1 are calculated with arbitrary accuracy using only the ordinary demand system our two efficient algorithms also have interesting interpretations in terms of index numbers and consumer surplus measures

japanese fuel mix strategy after disaster of fukushima daiichi nuclear power plant lessons from international comparison among industrial nations measured by dea environmental assessment in time horizon abstract on june 1 2015 the japanese government has announced that the fuel mix will consist of nuclear generation with a range between 20 and 22 and renewable generation with a range between 22 and 24 of the total electricity generation by 2030 a difficulty in understanding the governmental future energy plan is that it does not contain any scientific evidence concerning why japan needs to maintain the amount of nuclear generation and that of renewable at the level between 20 and 22 and between 22 and 24 respectively to investigate the future energy plan this study uses data envelopment analysis dea as a methodology the proposed dea approach incorporates the property of translation invariance the property indicates that an efficiency measure should not be influenced even if inputs and or outputs are shifted toward a same direction by adding or subtracting a specific real number the property makes it possible that we can evaluate the performance of organizations whose production factors i e inputs desirable and undesirable outputs contain many zeros and negative values in a data set such an occurrence of zero and negative in production factors is widely observed in many dea performance evaluations this study first uses the desirable property for dea environmental assessment in a time horizon the proposed dea environmental assessment identifies that the reasonable ranges for japanese future fuel mix are a combustible fuel generation within the range between 34 5 and 56 1 b hydro generation within the range between 22 4 and 40 5 c nuclear generation within the range between 10 4 and 13 7 d pumped hydro generation within the range between 3 9 and 6 9 and e renewable generation within the range between 3 7 and 8 4 all of which are measured by these generation capacities it is clearly identified that the future fuel mix proposed by the japanese government is inconsistent with the estimated one which we determine by relatively comparing it with the energy structures of 33 industrial nations the comparison indicates that the japanese future energy plan will be too ambitious to implement the future goal it is easily envisioned that the energy plan will have a considerable difficulty in future it is hoped that the electric power industry can access drastic technological advancements including eco technology innovation and then japan will be able to change the future direction on fuel mix as the government expects

evaluation of the long term power generation mix the case study of south korea s energy policy abstract this paper presents a practical portfolio model for the long term power generation mix problem the proposed model optimizes the power generation mix by striking a trade off between the expected cost of power generation and its variability we use monte carlo simulation techniques to consider the uncertainty associated with future electricity demand fuel prices and their correlations and the capital costs of power plants unlike in the case of conventional power generation mix models we employ cvar conditional value at risk in designing variability to consider events that are rare but enormously expensive a comprehensive analysis on south korea s generation policy using the portfolio model shows that a large annual cost is additionally charged to substitute a portion of nuclear energy with other alternatives nonetheless if korea has to reduce its dependency on nuclear energy because of undermined social receptivity from the fukushima disaster it turns out that lng or coal could be a secure candidate from an economic perspective

prices versus quantities comparing economic efficiency of feed in tariff and renewable portfolio standard in promoting renewable electricity generation abstract in order to promote renewable electricity generation several countries have been adopting a feed in tariff fit or a renewable portfolio standard rps of these two renewable energy policies investigating which one has better performance is a subject of debate this study comparatively analyzes the economic efficiency of fit and rps in the south korean renewable energy market fit was implemented from 2002 to 2011 while rps has been in force since 2012 hence a comparative analysis of the two policies is ideal the benefit cost ratio and net present value were measured from two different perspectives the government and energy producers the results showed that rps was more efficient for photovoltaic energy from the government s perspective whereas fit for non photovoltaic energy such as wind power bio energy and fuel cells however from the energy producers perspective fit was more efficient for photovoltaic energy while rps was more efficient for non photovoltaic energy

analysis of energy embodied in the international trade of uk interest in the role embodied energy plays in international trade and its subsequent impact on energy security has grown as a developed nation the uk s economic structure has changed from that of a primary producer to that of a primary consumer although the uk s energy consumption appears to have peaked it imports a lot of energy embodied in international trade alongside the more obvious direct energy imports the uk has seen increasing dependency on imported fossil energy since the uk became a net energy importer in 2005 in this paper an energy input output model is established to calculate not only the amount of fossil energy embodied in uk s imports and exports but also the sector and country distributions of those embodied fossil energy the research results suggest the following uk s embodied fossil energy imports have exceeded embodied fossil energy exports every year since 1997 uk embodied energy imports through the so called made in china phenomena are the largest accounting for 43 of total net fossil energy imports if net embodied fossil energy imports are considered the gap between energy consumption and production in uk is much larger than commonly perceived with subsequent implications to the uk s energy security

a continuous dilemma we study prisoners dilemmas played in continuous time with flow payoffs accumulated over 60 seconds in most cases the median rate of mutual cooperation is about 90 percent control sessions with repeated matchings over eight subperiods achieve less than half as much cooperation and cooperation rates approach zero in one shot sessions in follow up sessions with a variable number of subperiods cooperation rates increase nearly linearly as the grid size decreases and with one second subperiods they approach continuous levels our data support a strand of theory that explains how capacity to respond rapidly stabilizes cooperation and destabilizes defection in the prisoner s dilemma jel c72 c78 c91

drivers promoting renewable energy a dynamic panel approach we study the commitment to renewable energy sources focusing on a set of 24 european countries and applying panel dynamic estimators europe is a leading player in the fight against climate change and the estimators we use reveal themselves to be appropriate in handling the persistency effect on renewables the level of renewable energy use in the previous period has a positive and highly significant effect on the current level of use traditional energy sources restrain the impetus towards renewables social awareness of sustainability climate change mitigation and co2 reduction targets are not enough to motivate the switch from traditional to renewables energy sources income and prices of fossil based fuels were not significant for the development of renewables in the period from 1990 to 2006 suggesting that it was not the market that encouraged renewables

a review on promoting share of renewable energy by green trading mechanisms in power system abstract in order to promote the development of renewable energy power generation many countries have issued corresponding policies meanwhile some green trading mechanisms have been implemented in power industry and this paper has mainly presented a review on promoting share of renewable energy by green trading mechanisms in power system with a focus on promotion effects of three mechanisms feed in tariff renewable portfolio standard and emission trading scheme apart from a review summaries comparisons and an outlook for future study are also presented our review suggests that feed in tariff and renewable portfolio standard can effectively increase the share of renewable energy power and lead to renewable resource diversity in addition emission trading also provides stimulus for development of renewable energy besides mitigation of carbon emission

demographic effects on residential electricity and city gas consumption in the aging society of japan abstract japan has been confronted with two demographic forces declining fertility rates and lengthening life spans which give rise to the increasing ratio of the elderly aging society the decline in population and the prevalence of nuclear families this study empirically analyzes the demographic effects on residential electricity and city gas consumption in japan our analysis presents the following main results first the aging of the society decreases the electricity demand but does not affect the city gas demand significantly second the decrease in population with the prevalence of nuclear families increases the electricity demand but decreases the city gas demand the direction of the demand for each alternative depends on the balancing of the first and second effects third the analysis also shows clear results about the own and cross price effects ongoing energy market reforms for price suppression would increase energy demand with possible substitutability between the two energy sources our case study of japan is also applicable to other countries that will have just started to experience the similar demographic pattern of an aging society with energy market deregulation

energy security and improvements in the function of diversity indices taiwan energy supply structure case study abstract facing the risk and uncertainty inherent in social and economic development many countries have adopted an energy supply diversification strategy in their energy security policy to control the energy import risk and cost to ensure that sufficient energy can be obtained at an affordable price level diversification helps the energy system respond to external changes and shocks diversification can also lessen the vulnerability of a single energy source to supply shocks and the market power of various energy supply sources this study develops the diversity reliability index and co vary diversity reliability index based on the hirschman herfindahl and shannon wiener indices investigates the contribution of different energy sources to the energy system and analyzes the covariance between various energies and their impacts on energy security to determine the impact of energy diversity in reducing the risk of energy supply shortages and cost fluctuations

policy measures to promote the widespread utilization of renewable energy technologies for electricity generation in the maldives abstract this study adopts a stakeholder based approach to understand the size and nature of the market and financial barriers to the widespread utilization of renewable energy technologies rets in the maldives in light of these barriers and the interests of relevant stakeholders this study evaluates different policy options in terms of their suitability to develop a domestic market for rets in the maldives evaluating the different policy instruments it was found that pricing laws that regulate market access are more suitable than quota systems provided that the current subsidies for conventional energy are removed or shifted towards rets as for the other financial incentives rebates on investments and low interest loans should be provided to ret project developers to overcome the high initial project costs in addition to these measures the limited institutional capacity suggests that policy support should also focus on enabling the steady development of regional institutions rather than on supporting individual ret projects these institutions should enable islands in each atoll to take advantage of efficient management and access to financial capital this will allow the development of sustained renewable energy projects that in turn will result in increased renewable capacity and decreased costs

power sector investment risk and renewable energy a japanese case study using portfolio risk optimization method the conventional pricing mechanism used for electricity systematically hides huge investment risks which are embedded in the overall cost of production although consumers are often unaware of these risks they present a large financial burden on the economy this study applies the portfolio optimization concepts from the field of finance to demonstrate the scope of greater utilization of renewable energies re while reducing the embedded investment risk in the conventional electricity sector and its related financial burden this study demonstrates that re investment can compensate for the risks associated with the total input costs such costs being external volatilities of fossil fuel prices capital costs operating and maintenance costs and the carbon costs by means of example this case study shows that japan could in theory obtain up to 9 of its electricity supply from green sources as compared to the present 1 37 based on the utilization of a portfolio risk analysis evaluation explicit comparison of the monetary values of the investment risks of conventional and renewable energy sources shows that renewable energies have high market competitiveness the study concludes with a recommendation that as a business objective investors would benefit by focusing on electricity supply portfolio risk minimization instead of cost this could also inherently increase the supply of renewable energy in the market

easing countries transitions from price controls and subsidies abstract in transitional economies initial popular support of market reforms is often followed by disillusionment and repudiation of the reform program to facilitate economic transition this paper proposes a marketable discount coupon system dcs that reassures the public even as an economy moves from nonmarket to market prices unlike price controls subsidies or ration coupons dcs involves no queuing or allocative distortions unlike vouchers dcs would not be negated by inflation to avoid distortions discount coupons would be marketable and redeemable even without purchase of specific products this procedure permits efficient adjustment of domestic prices to international levels

introducing mozleap an integrated long run scenario model of the emerging energy sector of mozambique since recently mozambique is actively developing its large reserves of coal natural gas and hydropower against this background we present the first integrated long run scenario model of the mozambican energy sector our model which we name mozleap is calibrated on the basis of recently developed local energy statistics demographic and urbanization trends as well as cross country based gdp elasticities for biomass consumption sector structure vehicle ownership and energy intensity we develop four scenarios to evaluate the impact of the anticipated surge in natural resources exploration on aggregate trends in energy supply and demand the energy infrastructure and economic growth in mozambique our analysis shows that until 2030 primary energy production is likely to increase at least six fold and probably much more this is roughly 10 times the expected increase in energy demand most of the increase in energy production is destined for export as a result mozambique may well become one of the leading global producers of natural gas and coal we discuss the opportunities and challenges that this resource wealth poses for the country

the policy implications of the different interpretations of the cost effectiveness of renewable electricity support abstract the cost effectiveness of support for renewable electricity is a main criterion to assess the success of policy instruments together with effectiveness the costs of support are also a source of significant concern for governments all over the world however significant confusion exists in the literature on the cost effectiveness of public support for renewable electricity while some authors define the concept of cost effectiveness as that which complies with the equimarginality principle many others including documents from relevant organisations european commission international energy agency intergovernmental panel on climate change define it as the lowest costs of support generally equating it with the minimisation of consumer costs the aim of this paper is to clarify the differences between both approaches and their policy implications regarding the choice of instruments and design elements it is shown that they partly overlap and that their policy implications clearly differ leading to very different policy prescriptions while the former favours technology neutral instruments and design elements the minimisation of consumer costs approach favours instruments and design elements which adjust support levels to the costs of the technologies

empowered evaluating japan s national energy strategy under the dpj administration abstract in august 2009 after 54 years of virtually unbroken rule japan s liberal democratic party ldp was ousted from power by the democratic party of japan dpj the dpj s campaign platform included a pledge to facilitate extreme reductions in greenhouse gas ghg emissions yet at the cop16 meeting in cancun japan announced that it would not accept further emission reduction targets without broader commitment from all nations this paper seeks to explain this dichotomy by employing a targeted stakeholder evaluation based on surveys with 321 japanese citizens to assess the extent to which influential stakeholder groups in japan supports a potentially costly transition to a low carbon energy infrastructure amidst severe economic challenges that the nation faces findings help explain japan s adversarial role in cop16 negotiations in cancun despite the stated ghg reduction ambitions of japan s current ruling party the analysis concludes that if the dpj does embrace aggressive co2 reduction targets in the future the strategic focus will likely mirror the former ruling party s energy policy of bolstering nuclear power generation capacity and promoting energy efficiency improvements while exhibiting lukewarm commitment to supporting capacity development in alternative sources of energy supply such as solar panels and wind turbines

an analysis of the optimum renewable energy portfolio using the bottom up model focusing on the electricity generation sector in south korea abstract the deployment of renewable energy is considered as one of the important alternative solutions for reducing greenhouse gas emissions caused by electricity generation as one of the key measures for promoting the deployment of renewable energy the renewable portfolio standard rps which obligates power operators with a power equipment capacity of 500 mw or larger excluding renewable energy equipment to supply over a specific portion of their total electricity generation output in the form of renewable energy was enacted in south korea in 2012 however there are still many disputes concerning the appropriate renewable energy deployment goal and the optimum portfolio for each renewable energy source which enable to minimize the economic burden while achieving the deployment target therefore this paper intends to deduce the optimum portfolio up to 2050 based on explicit representation of renewable energy technologies and analyze the cost effect using the bottom up energy system analysis model of electricity generation sector in south korea the result indicates that the potential for a reduction of the cost of pv was the highest and that in the long term it would account for the highest portion of the renewable energy portfolio as it was the most cost competitive technology the additional cost for increasing the renewable deployment target 20 compared with the 3rd energy basic plan was predicted to be between 107 and 115 usd mw h therefore the renewable energy will be able to play a greater role in reducing ghg emission if the r d to reduce investment and operation cost of pv and wind power is conducted successfully

why do some emerging economies proactively accelerate the adoption of renewable energy abstract this article analyses the determinants of renewable energy consumption in a panel of six major emerging economies namely brazil china india indonesia philippines and turkey that are proactively accelerating the adoption of renewable energy using fully modified ordinary least square fmols dynamic ordinary least square dols and granger causality methods this paper finds that in the long run renewable energy consumption is significantly determined by income and pollutant emission in brazil china india and indonesia while mainly by income in philippines and turkey causal link between renewable energy and income and between renewable energy and pollutant emission are found to be bidirectional in the short run these results suggest that the appropriateness of the efforts undertaken by emerging countries to reduce the carbon intensity by increasing the energy efficiency and substantially increasing the share of renewable in the overall energy mix

conceptualization of energy security in resource poor economies the role of the nature of economy abstract this paper studies how energy security is conceptualized in four resource poor advanced island economies singapore south korea japan and taiwan it is found that the energy security conceptualization of the four economies in effect returns to the very original and conventional one stable and reliable energy supply however these economies are different in the level of stability and reliability demanded why are they similar in energy security conceptualization whereas different in the level of stability and reliability demanded adopting documentation analysis comparative study and the varieties of capitalism theory we find that the nature of economy constitutes the decisive factor that shapes energy security conceptualization the coordinated market economies cmes are more concerned about energy supply disruption than the liberalized market economies lmes the paper demonstrates that despite numerous energy security concepts in the literature resource poor economies still adopt the original and conventional one in practice the findings suggest that security of supply is the top measure for resource poor economies to improve their energy security and creating a joint petroleum and lng market would be desirable for the four economies in this study

renewable energy finance and project ownership the impact of alternative development structures on the cost of wind power abstract this paper uses traditional financial cash flow techniques to examine the impact of different ownership and financing structures on the cost of renewable energy specifically wind power most large non hydroelectric renewable energy projects are developed owned and financed by private non utility generators recently however us utilities have begun to consider owning and financing their own wind power facilities rather than purchasing power from independent renewable energy suppliers utilities in other countries have also expressed interest in direct renewable energy investments a primary justification for utility ownership of wind turbine power plants is that utility self financing and ownership is cheaper than purchasing wind energy from non utility renewable energy suppliers the results presented in this paper support that justification although some of the estimated cost savings associated with utility ownership are a result of suboptimal utility analysis procedures and implicit risk shifting financing terms and variables are shown to significantly impact wind power costs

risk constrained portfolio selection of renewable sources in hydrothermal electricity markets renewable sources have recently emerged as a generation option for many countries in order to promote clean energy development in the case of brazil small hydro plants and cogeneration from sugarcane waste bagasse have been attractive alternatives during the past years with hundreds of mw installed since 2004 despite their advantages both alternatives are hindered by seasonal yet complementary availability this forces producers to discount or price the risks faced when selling firm energy contracts and may ultimately lead to projects being commercially unattractive we propose a stochastic optimization model that defines the optimal composition of a portfolio based on these two renewable sources in order to maximize the revenue of an energy trading company at the same time this model mitigates hydrological and fuel unavailability risks thus allowing the participation of both sources in the forward market environment in a competitive manner a case study is presented based on data from the brazilian system

renewable energy policies in promoting financing and investment among the east asia summit countries quantitative assessment and policy implications many countries have implemented various policies for renewable energy development ranging from setting power purchase agreements and the legislation of renewable energy requirements to providing incentives and imposing carbon taxes the evaluation of the effectiveness of such policies however is fragmented which raises a need for a comprehensive analysis this paper aims to assess whether and how policies promoting renewable energy investment have achieved the intended goals it employs five broadly defined criteria market uncertainty profitability technology and financial resources to build an index to assess respectively if such policies have helped create a market for renewable energy maximize potential profits reduce risks relating to the investment develop and adopt new technologies and improve the access to financial resources each criterion is reflected by three indicators values of each indicator are converted into ordinal values for analysis the index not only scans comprehensively all relevant renewable energy investment policies in the east asia summit countries but also provides systematic and quantitative measures to compare the effectiveness of policies in these countries with respect to the creation of market the degree of uncertainty the potential of profitability the development and adoption of technology and the accessibility of financial resources

on the effectiveness of scenario generation techniques in single period portfolio optimization in single period portfolio selection problems the expected value of both the risk measure and the portfolio return have to be estimated historical data realizations used as equally probable scenarios are frequently used to this aim several other parametric and non parametric methods can be applied when dealing with scenario generation techniques practitioners are mainly concerned on how reliable and effective such methods are when embedded into portfolio selection models in this paper we survey different techniques to generate scenarios for the rates of return we also compare the techniques by providing in sample and out of sample analysis of the portfolios obtained by using these techniques to generate the rates of return evidence on the computational burden required by the different techniques is also provided as reference model we use the worst conditional expectation model with transaction costs extensive computational results based on different historical data sets from london stock exchange market ftse are presented and some interesting financial conclusions are drawn

electricity demand and supply scenarios for maharashtra india for 2030 an application of long range energy alternatives planning abstract forecasting of electricity demand has assumed a lot of importance to provide sustainable solutions to the electricity problems leap has been used to forecast electricity demand for the target year 2030 for the state of maharashtra india holt s exponential smoothing method has been used to arrive at suitable growth rates probable projections have been generated using uniform gross domestic product gdp growth rate and different values of elasticity of demands three scenarios have been generated which include business as usual bau energy conservation ec and renewable energy ren subsequent analysis on the basis of energy environmental influence and cost has been done in the target year 2030 the projected electricity demand for bau and ren has increased by 107 3 per cent over the base year 2012 and ec electricity demand has grown by 54 3 per cent the estimated values of green house gas ghg for bau and ec in the year 2030 are 245 2 per cent and 152 4 per cent more than the base year and for ren it is 46 2 per cent less sensitivity analysis has been performed to study the effect on the total cost of scenarios policy implications in view of the results obtained are also discussed

decisions among defaults and the effect of the option to do nothing prior reviews have focused on if leadership literature pays homage to levels of analysis our purpose is to take stock of how well and in what ways levels issues are implemented in theory and hypotheses formulation construct conceptualization measurement and data analysis to illustrate these notions we provide an in depth review of 163 multi level empirical leader member exchange lmx and vertical dyad linkage vdl studies published between 1972 and 2012 our findings indicate that the volume of multi level studies in lmx has drastically increased recently and the majority of these studies cast theory and hypotheses at the same level with regard to alignment of levels of theory hypotheses with measurement and with data analyses however roughly one out of two published studies suffers from misalignment of levels most of this misalignment occurs in studies where the dyad level of analysis a key component of lmx is an explicit or implicit focus we conclude with a discussion of the implications for the lmx literature and present recommendations to guide multi level leadership research

an international assessment of energy security performance energy security has in recent years grown as a salient policy and political issue to better understand energy security and sustainability concerns this study s main objective is to present an energy security index which measures national performance on energy security over time based on three years of research involving interviews surveys and an international workshop this study conceptualizes energy security as consisting of the interconnected factors of availability affordability efficiency sustainability and governance it then matches these factors with 20 metrics comprising an energy security index measuring international performance across 18 countries from 1990 to 2010 it offers three case studies of japan top performer laos middle performer and myanmar w orst performer to provide context to the index s results it then presents four conclusions first a majority of countries analyzed have regressed in terms of their energy security second despite the near total deterioration of energy security a great disparity exists between countries with some clear leaders such as japan third tradeoffs exist within different components of energy security fourth creating energy security is as much a matter of domestic policy from within as it is from foreign policy without

real time tacit bargaining payoff focality and coordination complexity experimental evidence we conduct a bargaining experiment where interaction is tacit and payoffs are earned and cumulated in real time we test hypotheses about the interaction between the focal properties of payoffs and the complexity of coordinating on an intertemporal behavior that achieves them the general finding is that when a payoff focal outcome requires a complicated coordination scheme bargainers tend to settle on a simpler and sometimes inefficient behavior

a monte carlo based decision support tool for assessing generation portfolios in future carbon constrained electricity industries abstract this paper presents a novel decision support tool for assessing future generation portfolios in an increasingly uncertain electricity industry the tool combines optimal generation mix concepts with monte carlo simulation and portfolio analysis techniques to determine expected overall industry costs associated cost uncertainty and expected co 2 emissions for different generation portfolio mixes the tool can incorporate complex and correlated probability distributions for estimated future fossil fuel costs carbon prices plant investment costs and demand including price elasticity impacts the intent of this tool is to facilitate risk weighted generation investment and associated policy decision making given uncertainties facing the electricity industry applications of this tool are demonstrated through a case study of an electricity industry with coal ccgt and ocgt facing future uncertainties results highlight some significant generation investment challenges including the impacts of uncertain and correlated carbon and fossil fuel prices the role of future demand changes in response to electricity prices and the impact of construction cost uncertainties on capital intensive generation the tool can incorporate virtually any type of input probability distribution and support sophisticated risk assessments of different portfolios including downside economic risks it can also assess portfolios against multi criterion objectives such as greenhouse emissions as well as overall industry costs

energy planning and modern portfolio theory a review abstract modern portfolio theory mpt stands as a widely accepted methodology to meet the challenges associated with the definition of energy planning for a particular territory or region energy planning is thus framed as an investment selection problem mpt is characterized by having a wider capacity and conceptual richness than the other previously used methodologies such as the individual least cost alternative the portfolio approach is based on solving for an objective function that seeks to minimize either the cost or the risk of the portfolio subject to different constraints considering that real electricity generation assets can be defined in terms of cost or return and economic risk for each alternative technology the relevant portfolios are the result of solving the optimization model to determine the efficient cost risk frontier the work presented here consists of an exhaustive review of the literature in relation to the application of mpt methodology to the field of energy planning and electricity production a new classification is proposed from a financial perspective of the selection of investments from the preceding studies it delves deeper into the explanation of the limits to the methodology and into the concept of risk which is key from both a financial and an energy perspective the main methodological contributions found in the literature are examined that are aimed at improving the capacity of the model and adjusting it to the reality of the electricity market finally conclusions are provided from the works analyzed in terms of renewable technologies and the policy implications derived from them in most studies a preference has been shown for the inclusion of renewable technologies in the efficient portfolios however in order to implement the decision to increase the share of renewable technologies greater flexibility in the interconnection capacity between states and in storage capacity is needed

the dynamics of coalition formation a multilateral bargaining experiment with free timing of moves abstract we experimentally investigate behavior in a finitely repeated coalition formation game played in continuous time subjects interact in groups of three bargaining over the distribution of payments which occur at regular time intervals during a given interval payments occur if and only if a majority is in agreement about their allocation aside from these rules we purposefully impose little structure on the bargaining process we investigate the frequency and stability of different types of agreements as well as transitions between them two thirds of payments involve divisions where one player receives nothing almost half of which are equal splits of the entire surplus between two players the most stable division is the three way equal split transitions between agreements are frequent and are generally consistent with myopic payoff maximization in the sense that subjects do not accept short term losses we also find that transitions between coalitions are not markovian in particular players more often forgo short term gains in order to remain in a coalition if it has proven stable in the past

opportunities and challenges for renewable energy policy in china renewable energy is the inevitable choice for sustainable economic growth for the harmonious coexistence of human and environment as well as for the sustainable development government support is the key and initial power for developing renewable energy in this article an overall review has been conducted on renewable energy development policy including laws and regulations economic encouragement technical research and development industrialized support and government model projects etc in china on this basis a systematic analysis has been conducted on the disadvantages of renewable energy development policy on the point of long term effective system for renewable energy development a series of policy advice has been offered such as strengthening the policy coordination enhancing regional policy innovation echoing with clean development mechanism implementing process management constructing market investment and financing system it is expected that the above advices could be helpful to ever improvement of renewable energy development policy c 2007 elsevier ltd all rights reserved