universal coverage with supply side reform the impact on medical expenditure risk and utilization in thailand abstract we estimate the impact on out of pocket oop medical expenditure of a major reform in thailand that greatly extended health insurance coverage to achieve universality while implementing supply side measures intended to deliver cost effective care from an increased but modest public health budget difference in differences comparison of groups to whom coverage was extended or deepened with those whose coverage did not change indicates that the reform reduced oop expenditure by 28 on average and by 42 at the 95th percentile of the conditional distribution simulations suggest that exposure to medical expenditure risk was reduced by three fifths on average generating a social welfare gain equivalent to 80 200 of the approximate deadweight loss from financing the reform estimated effects on health care access suggest that the policy managed to reduce households medical expenses while also raising their utilization of both inpatient and ambulatory care

reaganomics and reputation revisited this paper considers a reformulation of backus and driffill s model of credibility following a change in regime following tabellini we alter their model to better fit macroeconomic policymaking as it is formulated in the u s where monetary and fiscal policies are made by independent policymakers by assuming that policymakers of divergent views have recently entered office and so have no track record the game s equilibrium corresponds to the u s experience during the first years of the reagan administration

sickness and death economic consequences and coping strategies of the urban poor in bangladesh summary we investigate the economic consequences of sickness and death and the manner in which poor urban households in bangladesh respond to such events based on panel data we assess the effects of morbidity and mortality episodes on household income medical spending labor supply and consumption we find that despite maintaining household labor supply serious illness exerts a negative effect on income for the poor however the estimates do not reject consumption smoothing the most prominent responses to finance current needs are increasing household debt through borrowing and depleting productive assets both of which have detrimental effects on future consumption

workfare wellbeing and consumption evidence from a field experiment with kenya s urban poor abstract restrictions like work requirements and constraints on voucher transfers are often used in social welfare systems but little empirical evidence exists on their impact on wellbeing we conducted a 10 day randomized experiment with 432 individuals living below the poverty line in the kawangware settlement of nairobi kenya testing two elements of social welfare design workfare versus welfare and restricted versus unrestricted vouchers participants were randomly assigned to a work condition involving daily work for unrestricted vouchers or one of two wait conditions involving daily waiting for vouchers that were either unrestricted or partially restricted to staple foods we find that working improved psychological wellbeing relative to waiting suggesting that the means of implementing welfare programs may have important effects on individuals beyond the impact of monetary benefit alone furthermore although the restrictions were inframarginal partially restricted vouchers crowded in spending on staple foods suggesting the existence of a flypaper effect in spending from restricted vouchers

mitigating the consequences of a health condition the role of intra and interhousehold assistance the behavior of noncoresident family members motivates much of the literature on consumption smoothing risk sharing and informal networks yet little is known empirically on the topic due to a lack of data simultaneously observing multiple households in an extended family this study utilizes genealogically linked longitudinal data to examine how extended family networks insure against financial risks from severely limiting health conditions we find that nonhealth consumption of unmarried households declines in response to worsening health whereas married households smooth expenditures in a way that is consistent with full insurance families mitigate losses by reallocating home production drawing down home equity holding formal health insurance collecting social security and receiving transfers from noncoresident relatives we illustrate that the costs of health shocks are transmitted throughout family networks and that noncoresident children draw down their assets and consumption when responding to a parent s health decline

credit market constraints consumption smoothing and the accumulation of durable production assets in low income countries investments in bullocks in india in this paper we formulate and estimate a finite horizon structural dynamic model of agricultural investment behavior that incorporates the major features of low income agricultural environments income uncertainty constraints on borrowing and rental markets and the use of investment assets to generate income and smooth consumption the model is fit to longitudinal indian household data on farm profits bullock stocks and pump sets the estimated structural parameters are used to assess the effects on the life cycle accumulation of bullocks agricultural profits and welfare associated with complete markets and bullock liquidity and with second best policies that provide assured sources of income to farmers and weather insurance

does microfinance change informal lending in village economies evidence from bangladesh this paper examines how availability of microfinance influences households borrowing from informal sources in village economies it uses a unique household level panel data set which spans more than two decades 1987 2008 from rural bangladesh we find that households access to microfinance reduces the incidence of borrowing from informal sources but not the amount of borrowing we find that less poor households benefit more in terms of reducing their reliance on informal borrowing and that the benefit accrues over time we also find that having access to microfinance increases women s informal borrowing for small consumption usage without facilitating access to new business opportunities

child labor and agricultural shocks this paper examines the relationship between household income shocks and child labor in particular we investigate the extent to which transitory income shocks lead to increases in child labor and whether household asset holdings mitigate the effects of these shocks using data from a household panel survey in tanzania we find that both relationships are significant we investigate mechanisms that could account for these results including buffer stocks and borrowing

the role of savings and credit in coping with idiosyncratic household shocks abstractthis study examines the effect of access to formal banking services on households ability to smooth consumption in response to illness of adult workers the institutional peculiarities of indonesia s largest commercial bank are exploited to separately estimate the effects of access to formal credit from savings the means by which households smooth consumption differs depending on their access to formal services those with access to formal credit increase borrowing from banks while those with access only to formal savings but not credit draw down on savings households without access to formal banking services end up liquidating productive assets

impact of ethiopia s community based health insurance on household economic welfare in 2011 in an attempt to increase access to health care and reduce household vulnerability to out of pocket health expenditure the government of ethiopia launched a community based health insurance scheme cbhi this paper uses three rounds of household survey data collected before and after the introduction of the cbhi pilot to assess the impact of the scheme on household consumption income indebtedness and livestock holdings we find that enrollment leads to a 5 percentage point or 13 decline in the probability of borrowing and is associated with an increase in household income there is no evidence that enrolling in the scheme affects consumption or livestock holdings our results show that the scheme reduces reliance on potentially harmful coping responses such as borrowing this paper adds to the relatively small body of work that rigorously evaluates the impact of cbhi schemes on economic welfare

is workfare cost effective against poverty in a poor labor surplus economy workfare schemes impose work requirements on beneficiaries this has seemed an attractive idea for self targeting transfers to poor people this incentive argument does not imply however that workfare is more cost effective against poverty than even poorly targeted options given hidden costs of participation in particular even poor workfare participants in a labor surplus economy can be expected to have some forgone income when they take up such a scheme a survey based method is used to assess the cost effectiveness of india s employment guarantee scheme in bihar participants are found to have forgone earnings although these fall well short of market wages on average factoring in these hidden costs the paper finds that for the same budget workfare has less impact on poverty than either a basic income scheme providing the same transfer to all or uniform transfers based on the government s below poverty line ration cards for workfare to dominate other options it would have to work better in practice reforms would need to reduce the substantial unmet demand for work close the gap between stipulated wages and wages received and ensure that workfare is productive that the assets created are of value to poor people cost effectiveness would need to be reassessed at the implied higher levels of funding

the economic consequences of health shocks evidence from vietnam this paper finds that the incomes of urban households are more vulnerable to health shocks than rural households that health shocks may precipitate increases in unearned income that partially offset reductions in earned income and large increases in medical spending even among insured households it also finds that households spend less on food following a health shock but more on budget items such as housing and electricity measures of household health shocks used include a recent death of a working age household member a long inpatient spell and a recent sizeable drop in the body mass index of the household head

wars of attrition in italian government coalitions and fiscal performance 1948 1994 we test the war of attrition models of fiscalperformance on the sample of italian governments from1948 to 1994 we control for conditioning phenomena like government stability majority size central bankindependence political budget cycle and externaleconomic constraints as well as for business cycleindicators we improve on the standard specificationsof war of attrition models by considering the role ofthe opposition and by using ex ante measures ofcoalitions fragmentation once these phenomena areaccounted for data support the implications of ourversion of the war of attrition models

a theory of employment guarantees contestability credibility and distributional concerns abstract both raw intuition and past experience suggest that the success of an employment guarantee scheme egs in safeguarding the welfare of the poor depends both on the wage it promises and the ease with which any worker can gain access an egs is thus at once a wage guarantee and a rationing device we chart the positive and normative limits of such an egs as an efficiency improving and poverty alleviating policy reform in a canonical labor market setting at its core an egs provides an aggregate not just egs employment target given the target the egs wage and access can be fine tuned to deliver outcomes ranging from a contestable labor market to a simple universal unemployment benefit the credibility of any such target however is shown to be triggered endogenously by a host of factors the distributional concerns of the planner private sector productivity the prevalence of market power and the need for public works paradoxically the outcome with a planner who cares only about efficiency can be less efficient than the outcome with a planner whose social welfare function also gives weight to poverty

risk pooling between households and risk coping measures in developing countries evidence from rural bangladesh abstract using data from rural bangladesh i test whether income risks are pooled among villagers between neighboring households and between related households living in different villages i find evidence that risks to food consumption are pooled between neighboring households and between related households but not among villagers as for nonfood consumption i find little evidence of risk pooling except between unrelated neighboring households i also find that while households belonging to a neighborhood network do not take any special measures during an economic hardship those not belonging to any such network try to smooth consumption by selling off livestock and other assets and by getting interest free loans negative income shocks are found to have little effect on labor supply or private transfers

countercyclical safety nets for the poor and vulnerable abstract relatively little is known about how government safety net programs insure against low consumption and stabilize asset bases compared to what is known about their role in transferring income the insurance function requires a flexible budget that can be scaled up rapidly to meet unanticipated circumstances safety nets serving an insurance function also differ from other transfer programs in their targeting they need to determine transitory need rather than more chronic correlates of poverty moreover insurance safety nets need a more flexible implementation strategy than do more permanent programs this paper reviews these issues from the perspective of low income countries

credit markets in northern nigeria credit as insurance in a rural economy this article addresses the issues of imcomplete markets and imperfect information in the context of credit markets in rural northern nigeria in much recent theoretical literature the problems of moral hazard and adverse selection are assumed to be decisive for the organization of agrarian institutions in contrast it is found that in the four villages surveyed credit transactions take advantage of the free flow of information within rural communities information asymmetries between borrower and lender are unimportant and their institutional consequences the use of collateral and interlinked contracts are absent credit transactions play a direct role in pooling risk between households through the use of contracts in which the repayment owed by the borrower depends on the realization of random production shocks by both the borrower and the lender

reputation and imperfect information abstract a common observation in the informal literature of economics and elsewhere is that is multistage games players may seek early in the game to acquire a reputation for being tough or benevolent or something else but this phenomenon is not observed in some formal game theoretic analyses of finite games such as selten s finitely repeated chain store game or in the finitely repeated prisoners dilemma we reexamine selten s model adding to it a small amount of imperfect or incomplete information about players payoffs and we find that this addition is sufficient to give rise to the reputation effect that one intuitively expects

is consumption smooth at the cost of volatile leisure an investigation of rural india this study examines the institutions in rural india that enable households to insure against unanticipated idiosyncratic shocks to income using a decentralized general equilibrium model it tests for consumption and leisure insurance against unanticipated income shocks it is found that differential access to markets particularly financial markets force villagers to differ in their response to similar shocks medium and large farmers have unrestricted access to credit markets and are unaffected by unanticipated changes in household income the small farmers are excluded from credit markets however some of the small farmers are able to insure consumption against unanticipated income shocks through compensating changes in labour market participation and reducing own farm work

nonmarket institutions for credit and risk sharing in low income countries the design credit and risk institutions in low income countries provides one of the most exciting testing grounds for theories of contracting with imperfect information and limited enforcement this paper reviews some of the recent literature with a special focus on nonmarket institutions that cope with risk and provide credit this literature attempts to bring together insights from economic theory especially information economics contract theory and mechanism design theory however it is also applied being motivated by the circumstance of the poor countries that their authors have visited and studied

wage and labor supply effects of illness in cote d ivoire and ghana instrumental variable estimates for days disabled abstract sickness should make individuals less productive but there are problems in measuring this effect first how is adult morbidity measured in a household survey second how is the impact or morbidity on productivity inferred if earning is partly used to improve health self reported functional activity limitation due to illness is considered an indicator of morbidity for wage earners and self employed people to deal with both the measurement and joint determination problems an instrumental variable estimation approach is used where local food prices and health services instrument for disability days that reduce wages by at least 10 and hours by 3 or more

on non uniqueness in rational expectations models an attempt at perspective abstract many macroeconomic models involving rational expectations give rise to an infinity of solution paths even when the models are linear in all variables some writers have suggested that this non uniqueness constitutes a serious weakness for the rational expectations hypothesis one purpose of the present paper is to argue that the non uniqueness in question is not properly attributable to the rationality hypothesis but instead is a general feature of dynamic models involving expectations it is also argued that there typically exists in a very wide class of linear rational expectations models a single solution that excludes bubble or bootstrap effects one that occur only because they are arbitrarily expected to occur a systematic procedure for obtaining solutions free from such effects is introduced and discussed in addition this procedure is used to interpret and reconsider several prominent examples with solution multiplicities including ones developed by fischer black and john b taylor

income smoothing and consumption smoothing one way that risk averse households protect consumption levels is to borrow and use insurance mechanisms another way common in low income economies is to diversify economic activities and make conservative production and employment choices households thus tend toward limiting exposure only to shocks that can be handled with available credit and insurance typically both types of mechanisms are studied independently but much more can be learned by studying them together first we obtain a more complete picture of risks costs and insurance possibilities second it opens the way to considering biases in standard tests of credit and insurance

workfare versus transfers in rural india abstract prevailing methods for evaluating workfare schemes are inconsistent with the arguments made for workfare in poor rural economies those arguments emphasize the existence of higher involuntary underemployment among the poor and the fact that the type of work provided by these schemes gives disutility deterring non poor households from participating to include these features the consumption based welfare metric used in past assessments of workfare schemes in underemployed developing countries is generalized to incorporate a welfare loss from casual manual work while allowing the government to independently value the work done for other reasons using data for india s national rural employment guarantee scheme nregs the paper shows that the policy ranking switches in favor of a basic income guarantee big over workfare allowing for a welfare loss from casual manual labor implies a more poor poor targeting performance but this is not sufficient to compensate for the direct welfare loss from the work requirement for plausible parameter values a big dominates nregs for a given total outlay on workfare wages

consumption insurance an evaluation of risk bearing systems in low income economies the hypothesis of full risk sharing can be taken to data from low income countries and evaluate formal and informal financial systems in many contexts idiosyncratic risks are high so credit insurance arrangements could be beneficial statistical tests reveal that households in southern india take advantage of these possibilities villages in cote d ivoire and countries in thailand do not do as well the paper includes an empirical description of the devices used to smooth consumption and a theoretical discussion of private information and incentives on ideal operating systems the full information and mechanism design frameworks provide benchmarks for policy analysis

optimal fiscal and monetary policy in an economy without capital abstract this paper is concerned with the structure and time consistency of optimal fiscal and monetary policy in an economy without capital in a dynamic context optimal taxation means distributing tax distortions over time in a welfare maximizing way for a barter economy our main finding is that with debt commitments of sufficiently rich maturity structure an optimal policy if one exists is time consistent in a monetary economy the idea of optimal taxation must be broadened to include an inflation tax and we find that time consistency does not carry over an optimal inflation tax requires commitment by rules in a sense that has no counterpart in the dynamic theory of ordinary excise taxes the reason time consistency fails in a monetary economy is that nominal assets should from a welfare maximizing point of view always be taxed away via an immediate inflation in a kind of capital levy this emerges as a new possibility when money is introduced into an economy without capital

do rights work law activism and the employment guarantee scheme summary recent rights based approaches offer a promising route for bringing about social change however we have little experience with state provided legally enforceable socio economic rights this paper examines one of the few examples of a legally granted socio economic right a limited right to work that has existed in one state of india for over 25 years in the form of the employment guarantee scheme the paper argues that legal underpinnings do not automatically enable the poor to obtain rights however legal rights have important indirect effects for pro poor activist organizations including mobilizing membership protecting activists from arbitrary action and shifting public discourse

credit programmes for the poor and seasonality in rural bangladesh this article examines the effect of group based credit used to finance self employment by landless households in bangladesh on the seasonal pattern of household consumption and male and female labour supply this credit can help smooth seasonal consumption by financing new productive activities whose income flows and time demands do not seasonally covary with the income generated by existing agricultural activities the results based upon 1991 92 survey data strongly suggest that an important motivation for credit programme participation is the need to smooth the seasonal pattern of consumption and male labour supply it is only the extent of lean season consumption poverty that selects household into these programmes in addition the largest female and male effects of credit on household consumption are during the lean season

central bank reputation and the monetization of deficits the 1981 italian monetary reform in 1981 the bank of italy was freed from the obligation to purchase the unsold public debt at the treasury auctions since then the bank of italy has reduced debt monetization the paper seeks to explain this policy shift by analyzing a game between the monetary and fiscal authorities the fiscal authority is imperfectly informed about the central bank preferences an equilibrium exists in which the central bank does not monetize so as to establish a reputation of being independent monetization raises fiscal deficits and may raise public debt relative to a non accommodative policy

catastrophic medical expenditure risk we propose a measure of household exposure to particularly onerous medical expenses the measure can be decomposed into the probability that medical expenditure exceeds a threshold the loss due to predictably low consumption of other goods if it does and the further loss arising from the volatility of medical expenses above the threshold depending on the choice of threshold the measure is consistent with a model of reference dependent utility with loss aversion unlike the risk premium the measure is only sensitive to particularly high expenses and can identify households that expect to incur such expenses and would benefit from subsidised but not actuarially fair insurance an empirical illustration using data from seven asian countries demonstrates the importance of taking account of informal insurance and reveals clear differences in catastrophic medical expenditure risk across and within countries in general risk is higher among poorer rural and chronically ill populations

uninsured health shocks and agricultural productivity among rural households the mitigating role of micro credit this article investigates how health shocks affect farm productivity in the presence of microcredit it is expected that microcredit increases agricultural productivity by enhancing allocative and

bashing and coercion in monetary policy bashing and coercion in monetary policy i introduction we ve got excess plant capacity i don t think that growth is excessive i have not been overly concerned with inflation president bush in a february 14 1989 interview with the wall street journal p a8 with the economy running close to potential the risks seem to be on the side of a further strengthening of price pressure chairman greenspan in testimony before congress on february 21 1989 reprinted from the wall street journal february 22 1989 p a2 many investors appeared to be confused by conflicting statements by bush greenspan and other u s officials wall street journal february 22 1989 p a1 if the fed pushes interest rates significantly higher bush may go public with critism wall street journal march 24 1989 p a1 recent research in macroeconomic policy games by rogoff 1985 alesina 1988 tabellini 1987 and waller 1989a has concentrated on the importance of an independent central bank in a discretionary policymaking environment in the original work on policy games by barro and gordon 1983a 1983b no distinction was made between the monetary authority and the fiscal authority but these researchers argue that because the fiscal authority may have incentives to create excessive inflation giving the powers of money creation to an independent monetary authority whose inflation preferences differ from the current fiscal authority may enable society to reduce the equilibrium inflation rate this results holds even though monetary policy is still chosen in a discretionary fashion therefore backus and driffill 1985a 537 conclude autonomous central banks thus act as a precommitment device which may help to make noninflationary policies more credible and less costly implicit in the term independent is the belief that the central bank is free to choose monetary policy without interference from the fiscal authority administration however this is not generally the case the appointment of central bankers by the legislative or executive branch of the government governmental oversight of policy decisions or political pressure on the central bank by these branches will tend to influence the setting of monetary policy and subsequently the extent to which the central bank is truly independent 1 kane 1984 argues that even if it is not able to directly choose monetary policy the current administration still may be able to achieve its preferred monetary growth path by putting pressure on the monetary authority to do its bidding restricting the powers of the central bank public criticism of central bank performance here after referred to as bashing 2 exclusion from fiscal policy planning which hurts the egos of central bankers or undertaking actions which damage the post central bank income or opportunities of the central bankers are ways he suggests in which the administration can coerce cooperation from the central bank in creating excessive money growth such arguments have given rise to the view that the administration is engaged in a reputation building game with the central bank although the central bank has control of the money supply the administration can threaten to impose a welfare loss by bashing the central bank if it does not generate the monetary policy preferred by the administration the success of this strategy depends on the size of the bashing costs imposed on the central bank and also on the extent to which these threats are credible credibility in turn depends on the benefits and costs incurred by the administration in carrying out its threats as a result the administration may choose to bash the central bank if it does not produce the administration s preferred money inflation outcome by establishing a reputation for bashing the administration may be able to obtain its desired policy outcome in the future

targeting of food aid in rural ethiopia chronic need or inertia abstract this paper quantifies the factors underlying the allocations of food aid by the ethiopian government together with local and international non governmental organizations ngos both across rural regions and to households within regions we focus on reduced form specifications in which as little structure as possible is put on the decision rules because so little is known about these rules and their implementation nationally representative rural household data from ethiopia collected in 1996 are used the paper determines the extent to which food aid both free distribution and food for work is targeted to poor households and communities we also demonstrate that food aid allocations display a large degree of spatial continuity over time and are concentrated in areas that at least during the time of the survey are not the poorest the paper attempts to disentangle two competing explanations for the apparent spatial rigidity of food aid allocations that the recipient areas are chronically needy or that needs shift geographically from 1 year to the next but that fixed costs in setting up operations and in the process of identifying needs lead to a degree of inertia in the location of food aid programs over time we conclude that the evidence best fits the inertia explanation

is consumption insured against illness evidence on vulnerability of households to health shocks in rural ethiopia abstract low and volatile incomes and absence of well developed financial markets make consumption smoothing an important issue in low income countries based on the theory of full insurance and using 2 years of panel data this study examines the impact of illness on the consumption of rural households and the capacity of existing risk sharing mechanisms in insuring consumption against health shocks in the rural areas of ethiopia the results show that illness has a statistically significant negative impact on the stability of consumption and the capacity of households or existing intra and interhousehold risk sharing arrangements in insuring consumption against illness varies across different consumption items the regression results show that the hypothesis of consumption insurance cannot be rejected in the case of total food consumption implying that basic items that come from own production and from external sources gifts are better insured and insensitive to the illness of the head however the

time consistency of fiscal and monetary policy the problem of time inconsistency arises from two different sources first as shown by guillermo a calvo 1978 the re is an incentive for each government to engage in an initial unanti cipated inflation second as discussed by robert e lucas and nancy l stokey 1983 there is an incentive for each government to deviat e from the path of taxes announced by the preceding government in th is paper it is shown that these two sources of time inconsistency ca n be removed by a particular method of debt management involving bot h nominal and indexed government bonds of various maturities copyright 1987 by the econometric society

risk and insurance in village india comment the protection of poor households in high risk agrarian economies from shocks to their incomes has often been seen as a compelling motive for various forms of policy intervention including transfers of cash or food credit subsidies and public employment schemes for a survey see lipton and ravallion 1995 the desirability of such safety net policies clearly depends on how well pre existing risk sharing arrangements work while it is commonly thought that without effective policy intervention rural households are vulnerable to village wide shocks such as adverse prices or poor rains it is less clear to what extent risk sharing institutions within the village mitigate the effects of idiosyncratic income risk stemming for instance from ill health or localized crop damage 2 several recent papers have used household level data to implement tests of risk sharing that might inform such concerns 3 these tests are based on the proposition that with perfect risk sharing consumption at the household level should be insured against idiosyncratic risks and thus depend solely on the realization of the aggregate risk wilson 1968 diamond 1967 townsend 1994 tests this implication of perfect intra village risk sharing using longitudinal household data on consumptions and incomes for three villages in india he reports that the full insurance hypothesis provides a surprisingly good benchmark in that household consumptions co move and do not appear to be much influenced by contemporaneous own income our aim here is to examine the robustness of this potentially important finding we have two main concerns the first is that the specification townsend adopts potentially biases his test towards the null hypothesis of full insurance because it yields inconsistent estimates of the key test parameter under a plausible alternative we therefore estimate a different specification that generates consistent estimates under both the null and the alternative our second concern is that a particular form of measurement error in the consumption data townsend uses may have further biased his results toward the null hypothesis of full insurance to address this concern we use an instrumental variables procedure when we implement the test of consumption insurance with townsend s consumption data we also re estimate the test equations with a measure of consumption derived from the same underlying primary data by an alternate method finally townsend reports 1discussions with robert townsend stimulated our interest in this investigation the staff of the

medium and long term participation in microcredit an evaluation using a new panel dataset from bangladesh the objective of this paper is to estimate the impacts of medium and long term participation in microcredit programs it utilises a new and large panel dataset collected from treatment and control households from 1997 to 2005 the data enables us to identify continuing participants in the program as well as newcomers and leavers we employ different estimation strategies including triple difference and propensity score matching methods to control for selection bias the impact estimates indicate that the benefits from microcredit vary more than proportionately with the duration of participation in a program larger benefits are realized from longer term participation and that the benefits continue to accrue beyond departure from the program the findings indicate the need to observe longer periods of participation to provide a reliable basis for assessing the effectiveness of microcredit lending

coping with shocks in rural ethiopia based on household survey data and event history interviews undertaken in a highly shock prone country this paper investigates which shocks trigger which coping responses and why we find clear differences in terms of coping strategies across shock types the two relatively covariate shocks that is economic and natural shocks are more likely to trigger reductions in savings and in food consumption while the sale of assets and borrowing is less common coping with relatively idiosyncratic health shocks is met by reductions in savings asset sales and especially a far greater reliance on borrowing as compared to other shocks reductions in food consumption a prominent response in the case of natural and economic shocks is notably absent in the case of health shocks across all shock types households do not rely on gifts from family and friends or on enhancing their labour supply as coping approaches the relative insensitivity of food consumption to health shocks based on the shocks coping analysis presented here is consistent with existing work which examines consumption insurance however our analysis leads to a different interpretation we argue that this insensitivity should not be viewed as insurability of food consumption against health shocks but rather as an indication that a reduction in food consumption is not a viable coping response to a health shock as it does not provide cash to meet health care needs

money debt and deficits in a dynamic game this paper analyzes a dynamic linear quadratic game between the fiscal and monetary authorities the equilibrium outcome of the game determines the time path of money creation fiscal deficits and public debt the game is solved for different equilibrium concepts the equilibria are then compared and interpreted with reference to alternative institutional arrangements the main results are i coordination increases the speed of adjustment towards the steady state and takes the steady state value of public debt closer to the desired target ii precommitments take the non cooperative equilibrium closer to the coordinated outcome iii increasing the weight that each policymaker assigns to his own private objectives slows down the adjustment process places more burden on the opponent but has ambiguous effects on the steady state value of public debt

reputation in a model of monetary policy with incomplete information abstract previous models of rules versus discretion are extended to include uncertainty about the policymaker s type when people observe low inflation they raise the possibility that the policymaker is committed to low inflation type 1 this enhancement of reputation gives the uncommitted policymaker type 2 an incentive to masquerade as the committed type in the equilibrium the policymaker of type 1 delivers surprisingly low inflation with corresponding costs to the economy over an extended interval the type 2 person mimics this outcome for awhile but shifts eventually to high inflation this high inflation is surprising initially but subsequently becomes anticipated

guaranteed employment or guaranteed income abstract the paper critically reviews the arguments for and against both employment guarantees and income guarantees when viewed as rights based policy instruments for poverty reduction in a developing economy decentralized implementation of the right to work poses serious challenges in poor places evidence on india s national rural employment guarantee act does not suggest that the potential for either providing work when needed or reducing current poverty is realized despite pro poor targeting instead work is often rationed by local leaders and the poverty impact is small when all the costs are considered the option of income support using cash transfers also has both pros and cons widely used methods for finely targeting cash transfers tend to miss many poor people and can discourage those reached from earning extra income yet it cannot be presumed that switching to a universal basic income will reduce poverty more than workfare or finely targeted transfers that is an empirical question and the answer will undoubtedly vary across settings belying the generalizations often heard from advocates nonetheless more incentive neutral universal and or state contingent transfer schemes merit consideration in settings in which existing public spending is skewed against poor people and or there is scope for raising taxes on the rich

how dependent are the rural poor on the employment guarantee scheme in india an analysis of the icrisat data for two villages in the indian state of maharashtra points to mistargeting of the employment guarantee scheme egs there was a marked deterioration in it over the period 1979 89 reflected in not just a larger concentration of the more affluent among the egs participants but also their much larger gains from participating in this scheme nevertheless a large subset of the chronically poor depended heavily on egs as an additional source of income with significant welfare gains during 1979 84 but a large subset especially of relatively low income participants also withdrew from egs when overall economic conditions improved besides egs earnings varied consistently with economic conditions although the present analysis raises some concerns about the mistargeting of egs and in this context about the design and implementation of this scheme the presumption that such public support makes the poor perpetually dependent on it seems somewhat exaggerated if not mistaken

a simple test of consumption insurance are consumers effectively insured against idiosyncratic shocks to income or wealth either by formal institutions such as charities private insurance and government programs or by informal mechanisms such as gifts and loans from relatives friends and neighbors under full insurance consumption growth should be cross sectionally independent of idiosyncratic variables that are exogenous to consumers this proposition is tested by cross sectional regressions of consumption growth on a variety of exogenous variables full insurance is rejected for long illness and involuntary job loss but not for spells of unemployment loss of work due to strike and an involuntary move

the impact of group based credit programs on poor households in bangladesh does the gender of participants matter this paper estimates the impact of participation by gender in the grameen bank and two other group based micro credit programs in bangladesh on labor supply schooling household expenditure and assets the empirical method uses a quasi experimental survey design to correct for the bias from unobserved individual and village level heterogeneity we find that program credit has a larger effect on the behavior of poor households in bangladesh when women are the program participants for example annual household consumption expenditure increases 18 taka for every 100 additional taka borrowed by women from these credit programs compared with 11 taka for men

health shocks and consumption smoothing in rural households does microcredit have a role to play abstract this paper estimates using a large panel data set from rural bangladesh the effects of health shocks on household consumption and how access to microcredit affects households response to such shocks households appear to be fairly well insured against health shocks our results suggest that households sell livestock in response to health shocks and short term insurance is therefore attained at a significant long term cost however microcredit has a significant mitigating effect households that have access to microcredit do not need to sell livestock in order to insure consumption microcredit organizations and microcredit therefore have an insurance role to play an aspect that has not been analyzed previously

how accurate is food for work self targeting in the presence of imperfect factor markets evidence from ethiopia effective targeting of transfers is a key issue in public policy to combat poverty much faith is presently placed in self targeting mechanisms such as public employment schemes supported by food for work transfers where targeting errors have been observed these are usually attributed to mismanagement of key operational details such as the project s wage rate using a unique data set from rural ethiopia we demonstrate that targeting errors may also have structural causes in some low income countries we hypothesise that imperfect factor markets generate a predictable dispersion across households in reservation wage rates that breaks down the unconditionally positive relation between income and shadow wages on which the theory of self targeting public employment programmes rests our results confirm that the inaccuracy of ffw targeting stems from the fact that in rural ethiopia higher income households are endowed with more labour per unit of land or animal due to poor factor markets in land and liv

can public works increase equilibrium wages evidence from india s national rural employment guarantee abstract we estimate the impact of the world s largest public works program india s national rural employment guarantee scheme nregs on agricultural wages nregs was rolled out across india in three distinct phases and this phased introduction is used to identify difference in difference estimates of the program effect using monthly data on wage rates from the period 2000 2011 in 209 districts across 18 indian states we include district specific fixed effects and trends to control for differences in wage rates in the absence of the program we find that on average the program boosted the growth rate of real daily agricultural wages by 4 3 per year the effect of the scheme is more consistent with an increase in the growth rate of wages than with a discontinuous jump in wages the effect was concentrated in some states and in the agricultural peak season appears to have been gender neutral and was biased towards unskilled labor since many of the world s poorest depend on casual agricultural labor for their livelihood while at the same time minimum wage legislation is unlikely to be effective in many developing countries we argue that rural public employment programs constitute a potentially important anti poverty policy tool

the politics and bureaucratics of rural public works maharashtra s employment guaranteed scheme the maharashtra employment guarantee scheme stands out among rural public works programmes in developing countries for its size longevity the generosity of its funding arrangements and the political sophistication of its design its mission is highly ambitious to supply employment flexibly and rapidly by opening and closing public works in response to local unpredictable weather variations in a poor agrarian economy we explore the political factors that account for changes in its performance over more than 30 years and identify the political lessons for the design of similar programmes elsewhere

direct and indirect effects of malawi s public works program on food security labor intensive public works programs are important social protection tools in low income settings intended to supplement income of poor households and improve public infrastructure in this evaluation of the malawi social action fund an at scale government operated program across and within village randomization is used to estimate effects on food security and use of fertilizer there is no evidence that the program improves food security and some negative spillovers to untreated households these disappointing results hold even under modifications to the design of the program to offer work during the lean rather than harvest season or increase the frequency of payments

are the poor less well insured evidence on vulnerability to income risk in rural china the authors test how well consumption is insured against income risk in a panel of sampled households in rural china they estimate the risk insurance models by generalized method of moments treating income and household size as endogenous insurance exists for all wealth groups although the hypothesis of perfect insurance is universally rejected those in the poorest wealth decile are the least well insured with 40 percent of an income shock being passed on to current consumption by contrast consumption by the richest third of households is protected from almost 90 percent of an income shock the extent of insurance in a given wealth stratum varies little between poor and nonpoor areas

insuring consumption against illness one of the most sizable and least predictable shocks to economic opportunities in developing countries is major illness we investigate the extent to which families are able to insure consumption against major illness using a unique panel data set from indonesia that combines excellent measures of health status with consumption information we find that there are significant economic costs associated with major illness and that there is very imperfect insurance of consumption over illness episodes these estimates suggest that public disability insurance or subsidies for medical care may improve welfare by providing consumption insurance

the marginal rate of corruption in public programs evidence from india abstract optimal fiscal policy depends on the marginal benefits of public spending in developing countries corrupt officials often embezzle funds so optimal policy should reflect marginal corruption we analyze marginal corruption in the context of a statutory wage increase in india s employment guarantee scheme strikingly workers received none of the increase even though initially they were on average overpaid the data are inconsistent with theories of voice in which the threat of complaints limits corruption but consistent with theories of exit in which outside options in the private sector limit how much rent officials can extract

the social value of health insurance results from ghana this paper uses the roll out of the national health insurance in ghana to assess the cushioning effect of coverage on the financial consequences of health shocks and resulting changes in coping behaviors the analysis finds a strong reduction in medical expenditures preventing households from cutting non food consumption and causing a decrease in the volume of received remittances as well as the labor supply of healthy adult household members moreover the paper presents evidence that the insurance scheme reduced the likelihood that households experiencing a health shock pulled their children out of school to put them to work avoidance of such costly coping mechanisms is potentially an important part of the social value of formal health insurance

are remittances a substitute for credit carrying the financial burden of health shocks in national and transnational households summary this paper tests for the assumption that remittances are a substitute for credit by comparing the response to health related shocks among national and transnational households using mexican household panel data while the occurrence of serious health shocks that required hospital treatment doubled the average debt burden of exposed households compared to the control group households with nuclear family members a parent child or spouse in the us did not increase their debts due to health shocks this finding is consistent with the view that remittances respond to households demand for financing emergencies and make them less reliant on debt financing

are rainfed agricultural households insured evidence from five villages in vidarbha india there are several studies on risk and insurance in village economies in the developing world however there is a lack of evidence for recent decades in spite of profound changes including structural transformation and widespread market liberalization in most regions in this paper i use primary panel data from five rainfed villages in a high risk region of india and find evidence of considerable exposure as well as vulnerability to idiosyncratic and covariate risks further there is significant wealth differentiated heterogeneity in vulnerability the findings help identify the scope of public policy in improving risk management in rainfed agriculture

the role of microcredit in older children s nutrition quasi experimental evidence from rural china abstract this article evaluates the causal impact of rural households borrowing through formal microcredit on child nutrition in poor northwest china the analysis exploits the panel data in rural gansu between 2000 and 2004 unobserved differences between borrowers and non borrowers are controlled for in a dynamic fuzzy regression discontinuity design creating a quasi experimental environment for causal inference both anthropometric and micronutrient measures of child nutrition are investigated borrowing formal microcredit improves parent reported health status and weight and alleviates anemia and zinc deficiency all effects nevertheless appear to exist in the short term only

the impact of microcredit on child education quasi experimental evidence from rural china abstractthis article assesses causal effects of formal microcredit on children s educational outcomes by using household panel data 2000 and 2004 in north west rural china the unobservables between borrowers and non borrowers are controlled in static and dynamic regression discontinuity designs the static analysis reveals significant positive impact of microcredit on schooling years in 2000 only and no influence on academic performance for either wave the dynamic analysis shows progressive treatment effects on both longer schooling years and higher average scores formal microcredit improves education in the longer term compared to the short term and hence may help relaxing the grip of educational poverty traps

in times of sickness intra household labour substitution in rural indonesian households abstractin many developing countries households with ill adults suffer not only from diminished labour supply but also from an inability to borrow against future labour income intra household labour substitution may be an important coping strategy for these households using information about individual health status provided by indonesia family life survey this study finds some evidence that indonesian farm households cope with chronic illnesses of male adults through intra household labour substitution yet the results show that this strategy is not effective in the case of severe health shocks and that these households are unable to keep their family farm profits stable