taylor rules for the ecb using expectations data we estimate taylor rules for the euro area using consensus economics data for expected inflation and output growth and compare these estimates with more conventional specifications in which actual outcomes are used we find that the ecb takes expected inflation and expected output growth into account in setting interest rates while in the more conventional model specification the coefficient of realized inflation is not significantly different from zero

is our everyday comfort for sale preferences for demand management on the electricity market in a european perspective the electricity markets have been experiencing major changes via deregulation new technologies and changes in the production mix together with the daily and seasonal peak hours on the demand side the changing markets put pressure on increased flexibility to handle and sustain balance in the grid systems this paper focuses on the demand side and analyzes preferences related to demand management of swedish households energy use in a web based choice experiment respondents were faced with three hypothetical electricity contracts the choices of preferred contracts revealed preferences for attributes related to external control of heating household electricity and information dissemination integrity the results show that people put a substantial value on not being controlled illustrated by compensations up to thousands of sek for accepting a contract characterized by external control of energy use in various dimensions in addition the results show that household composition age gender and income play a role for the perceived discomfort from the external control and information dissemination

some empirical evidence on the effects of shocks to monetary policy on exchange rates this paper investigates the effects of shocks to u s monetary policy on exchange rates we consider three measures of these shocks orthogonalized shocks to the federal funds rate orthogonalized shocks to the ratio of nonborrowed to total reserves and changes in the romer and romer index of monetary policy in sharp contrast to the literature we find substantial evidence of a link between monetary policy and exchange rates specifically according to our results a contractionary shock to u s monetary policy leads to i persistent significant appreciations in u s nominal and real exchange rates and ii significant persistent deviations from uncovered interest rate parity in favor of u s interest rates

contrarian and momentum strategies in germany two traditional methods of managing equity portfolios are investing based on price momentum and value based contrarian investing these strategies may be motivated by a behavioral theory of under and overreaction to news or by empirical research mostly for the nyse that has found persistence in price movements over short horizons and reversion to the mean over longer horizons however the apparent success of these strategies may be due to institutional factors and the mismeasurement of risk or it may result from data mining for these reasons we studied all major german companies listed on the frankfurt stock exchange for the three decades between 1961 and 1991 the dynamics of stock prices in frankfurt are remarkably similar to new york the data suggest that equity prices reflect investor forecasts of company profits that are predictably wrong

valuing the attributes of renewable energy investments increasing the proportion of power derived from renewable energy sources is becoming an increasingly important part of many countries s strategies to achieve reductions in greenhouse gas emissions however renewable energy investments can often have external costs and benefits which need to be taken into account if socially optimal investments are to be made this paper attempts to estimate the magnitude of these external costs and benefits for the case of renewable technologies in scotland a country which has set particularly ambitious targets for expanding renewable energy the external effects we consider are those on landscape quality wildlife and air quality we also consider the welfare implications of different investment strategies for employment and electricity prices the methodology used to do this is the choice experiment technique renewable technologies considered include hydro on shore and off shore wind power and biomass welfare changes for different combinations of impacts associated with different investment strategies are estimated we also test for differences in preferences towards these impacts between urban and rural communities and between high and low income households

do markets overreact international evidence abstract in this paper using the conrad and kaul s methodology we test for the overreaction hypothesis which maintains that stock prices systematically overshoot and therefore their reversal can be predicted from past performance in seven industrialized countries consistent with the findings of conrad and kaul we see no evidence of overreaction in the us however returns to long term contrarian strategies in other countries seem to be generally significant moreover we find that in the majority of the countries while returns to arbitrage portfolios based on price are higher than those based on size the latter generally outperform the winner loser arbitrage portfolios

how much is too much an investigation of the effect of the number of choice sets context dependence and the choice of bid vectors in choice experiments in a split sample design we examine how the number of choice sets design of the first choice set context dependence and the choice of attribute levels in the cost attribute affect the precision in the elicited preferences in otherwise completely identical choice experiment surveys these issues are investigated for swedish households marginal willingness to pay to reduce power outages our results indicate that neither the number of choice sets nor the design of the first choice set has a significant impact on estimated marginal willingness to pay while the effect was significant for the additive scaling of the cost vector at the end of the article we discuss the implications of our results on future developments and applications of choice experiments

third country effects on the exchange rate abstract predictive regressions for bilateral exchange rates are typically run on variables from the associated bilateral pairs of countries these regressions characteristically have low explanatory power which leaves room for an omitted variables interpretation we test whether these omitted variables are from third countries when third country macro factors are added to bilateral exchange rate regressions they enter significantly and increase the adjusted r 2 a three country exchange rate model illustrates potential channels for third country spillovers to affect the bilateral rate

the eurosystem the u s federal reserve and the bank of japan similarities and differences the paper provides a systematic comparison of the eurosystem the u s federal reserve and the bank of japan these monetary authorities exhibit somewhat different status and tasks which reflect different historical conditions and national characteristics however widespread changes in central banking practices in the direction of greater independence and increased transparency as well as changes in the economic and financial environment over the past 15 20 years have contributed to reduce the differences among these three world s principal monetary authorities a comparison based on simple over the counter policy reaction functions shows no striking differences in terms of monetary policy implementation

new evidence on the puzzles results from agnostic identification on monetary policy and exchange rates abstract past empirical research on monetary policy in open economies has found evidence of the delayed overshooting puzzle and the forward discount puzzle we revisit the effects of monetary policy on exchange rates by applying uhlig s uhlig h 2005a what are the effects of monetary policy on output results from an agnostic identification procedure journal of monetary economics 52 2 381 419 identification procedure that involves sign restrictions on the impulse responses of selected variables in a first step we leave the response of the exchange rate agnostically open and find sizeable evidence for both puzzles in a second step we additionally rule out the delayed overshooting by construction our results indicate that the forward discount puzzle is robust even without delayed overshooting

wind power development in sweden global policies and local obstacles abstract recently the swedish government adopted a national planning goal of a yearly wind power generation of 10 twh by 2015 implying a substantial increase from the current 0 6 twh level in this paper we provide an economic assessment of the potential for future wind power investments in sweden in close conjunction with an analysis of the legal attitudinal and policy related uncertainties that face a wind mill investor it is shown that the economics of swedish wind power is negatively affected by a the lack of policy stability b public criticism at the local level and in particular c the legal provisions governing the assessment of the environmental impacts of wind mills and the planning procedures for mill location while national and global energy policies as well as the general public point out wind power as particularly environmentally friendly most of the objections to its expansion at the local level tend to have environmental origins the interests of those who object to wind mill installations gain strong legal protection and the municipal territorial planning monopoly in sweden implies that it is hard to make national energy policy goals heard at the local implementation stage compared to its competitors wind power is the technology that tends to have the most to loose from the risk and uncertainties created by this investment environment the paper identifies and discusses a number of ways in which the national policy interests could be strengthened at the local level we discuss the role of citizen participation as well as solutions within the realms of the legal system moreover since the diffusion of wind power encounters the most strident legal and attitudinal obstacles where it interferes with competing land uses a move offshore appears to be an efficient strategy from the perspective of a wind mill investor a stronger political commitment to wind power expansion in legal provisions as well as in the form of long run stability in policy instrument implementation will probably be necessary to attain the 2015 policy goal

asymmetric reaction functions for the euro area this paper offers a preliminary evaluation of ecb conduct of monetary policy by estimating a fairly general reaction function for the euro area the specification of the policy rule embodies a number of nonlinearities which are shown to stem from asymmetric preferences and a convex aggregate supply curve asymmetric preferences allow but do not require policy makers to weight differently positive and negative deviations of inflation and output from the reference values and translate into an asymmetric reaction function the empirical analysis on monthly euro area aggregated data over the last 5 years reveals that ecb monetary policy is effectively described by a nonlinear policy rule according to which output contractions have required a larger policy response than output expansions moreover actual movements in the euro interest rate closely resemble the simulated path that a bundesbank type of behaviour would have implied copyright 2003 oxford university press

can fat tail create the momentum and reversal we suggest that fat tail variations can cause both short term momentum and long term reversal simultaneously in both the time series and cross sectional returns of securities the fat tail of the

historical monetary policy analysis and the taylor rule this study examines the usefulness of the taylor rule framework as an organizing device for describing the policy debate and evolution of monetary policy in the united states monetary policy during the 1920s and since the 1951 treasury federal reserve accord can be broadly interpreted in terms of this framework with rather surprising consistency in broad terms during these periods policy has been generally formulated in a forward looking manner with price stability and economic stability serving as implicit or explicit guides as early as the 1920s measures of real economic activity relative to normal or potential supply appear to have influenced policy analysis and deliberations confidence in such measures as guides for activist monetary policy proved counterproductive at times resulting in excessive activism such as during the great inflation and at the brink of the great depression policy during the past two decades is broadly consistent with natural growth targeting variants of the taylor rule that exhibit less activism

fundamental analysis and subsequent stock returns abstract this paper re examines the ou and penman 1989 conclusion that fundamental analysis identifies equity values not currently reflected in stock prices and thus systematically predicts abnormal returns their fundamental summary measure pr the estimated probability of an earnings increase also proxies for firm size and capm risk after controlling cross sectional differences in capm beta and firm size no significant incremental predictive ability is attributable to pr the pr measure is interpreted as a proxy for expected return differences rather than as new evidence of a systematic market underreaction to the future earnings signal inherent in current financial statements

does a good central banker make a difference the personalities of central bankers moved center stage during the recent financial crisis indeed several central bankers even became superstars in this article we investigate whether superstar central bankers have an impact on economic performance we employ school grades given to central bankers by the financial press defining as superstars those central bankers receiving the top grade first we explain the grades in a probit estimation with measures of economic performance institutional features and personal characteristics second we employ a matching approach to account for the endogeneity of grading with respect to economic performance using entropy balancing we identify credible counterfactuals for top graded central bankers that is nonsuperstar central bankers who face similar situations comparing the economic performance of both groups we find that superstars do indeed matter a top graded central banker faces a significantly more favorable output inflation tradeoff than his peers this effect is driven by outstanding central bankers in both advanced and emerging economies and is especially prevalent in the precrisis subsample jel e52 e58

factor models and time varying parameter framework for forecasting exchange rates and inflation a survey a survey of models used for forecasting exchange rates and inflation reveals that the factor based and time varying parameter or state space models generate superior forecasts relative to all other models this survey also finds that models based on taylor rule and portfolio balance theory have moderate predictive power for forecasting exchange rates the evidence on the use of bayesian model averaging approach in forecasting exchange rates reveals limited predictive power but strong support for forecasting inflation overall the evidence overwhelmingly points to the context of the forecasts relevance of the historical data data transformation choice of the benchmark selected time horizons sample period and forecast evaluation methods as the crucial elements in selecting forecasting models for exchange rate and inflation

exchange rate puzzles and distorted beliefs abstract we propose a new explanation for the foreign exchange forward premium and delayed overshooting puzzles we show that both puzzles arise from a systematic distortion in investors beliefs about the interest rate process accordingly the forward premium is always a biased predictor of future depreciation the bias can be so severe as to lead to negative coefficients in the fama regression delayed overshooting may or may not occur depending upon the persistence of interest rate innovations and the degree of misperception we document empirically the extent of this distortion using survey data for g 7 countries against the u s and find that it is strong enough to account for these irregularities

the two pillars of the european central bank i interpret the european central bank s two pillar strategy by proposing an empirical model for inflation that distinguishes between the short and long run components of inflation the latter component depends on an exponentially weighted moving average of past monetary growth and the former on the output gap estimates for the 1971 2003 period suggest that money can be combined with other indicators to form the broadly based assessment of the outlook for future price developments that constitutes the ecb s second pillar however the analysis does not suggest that money should be treated differently from other indicators while money is a useful policy indicator all relevant indicators should be assessed in an integrated manner and a separate pillar focused on monetary aggregates does not appear necessary stefan gerlach

taylor rules and the euro this paper uses real time data to analyze whether the variables that normally enter central banks interest ratesetting rules which we call taylor rule fundamentals can provide evidence of out of sample predictability for the united states dollar euro exchange rate from the inception of the euro in 1999 to the end of 2007 the major result of the paper is that the null hypothesis of no predictability can be rejected against an alternative hypothesis of predictability with taylor rule fundamentals for a wide variety of specifications that include inflation and a measure of real economic activity in the forecasting regression we also present less formal evidence that with real time data the taylor rule provides a better description of ecb than of fed policy during this period while the evidence of predictability is only found for specifications that do not include the real exchange rate in the forecasting regression the results are robust to whether or not the coefficients on inflation and the real economic activity measure are constrained to be the same for the u s and the euro area and to whether or not there is interest rate smoothing the evidence of predictability is stronger for realtime than for revised data about the same with inflation forecasts as with inflation rates and weakens if output gap growth is included in the forecasting regression bad news about inflation and good news about real economic activity both lead to out of sample predictability through forecasted exchange rate appreciation

inflation targeting credibility and non linear taylor rules abstract in this paper we systematically evaluate how central banks respond to deviations from the inflation target we present a stylized new keynesian model in which agents inflation expectations are sensitive to deviations from the inflation target to re establish credibility monetary policy under discretion sets higher interest rates today if average inflation exceeded the target in the past moreover the central bank responds non linearly to past inflation gaps this is reflected in an additional term in the central bank s instrument rule which we refer to as the credibility loss augmenting a standard taylor 1993 rule with the latter term we provide empirical evidence for the interest rate response for a sample of five inflation targeting it economies we find first that past deviations from it feed back into the reaction function and that this influence is economically meaningful deterioration in credibility ceteris paribus forces central bankers to undertake larger interest rate steps second we detect an asymmetric reaction to positive and negative credibility losses with the latter dominating the former

short term reaction of stock markets in stressful circumstances abstract in this paper we document the short term stock price behaviour following a period of stock market stress we focus on price behaviour using daily market indexes from 39 stock exchanges over the period 1989 1998 our results are not consistent with the overreaction hypothesis we find positive negative abnormal price performance in the short term window up to 10 days following positive negative price shocks our analysis also highlights differences between developed and emerging markets we show that the post shock abnormal performances are significantly larger for emerging markets but that this momentum behaviour is markedly less in the late 1990s we find the size of the after shock tremors to be related to market liquidity with larger post shock price changes in less liquid markets

nonstationary expected returns abstract recent evidence reveals significant negative serial correlation in aggregate market wide stock returns we extend this result to relative market adjusted returns demonstrating negative serial correlation in five year returns we then test two competing explanations 1 market mispricing and 2 changing expected returns in an efficient market the tests are conducted using the capital asset pricing model to estimate relative returns the evidence suggests that negative serial correlation in relative returns is due almost entirely to variation in relative risks and therefore expected relative returns through time we document substantial relative risk shifts particularly for extreme performing stocks

wind power externalities a meta analysis this study presents the first quantitative meta analysis of the non market valuation literature on the external effects associated with wind power production a data set of 60 observations drawn from 32 studies is constructed the relative economic values of different types of externalities as well as the impact of various methodological and sample characteristics on welfare estimates are examined the results indicate a significant effect of visual externalities on welfare estimates in both directions i e a positive effect of visual improvements and a negative effect of deteriorations this finding corresponds to predictions of the importance of visual impacts in the social science literature external effects of wind power on biodiversity mainly birds do not affect welfare estimates indirect externalities caused by conventional sources of electricity that can be avoided by wind power such as a the reduction of air pollution do neither have a significant impact on welfare measures methodologically we find substantial but inelastic income effects and for choice experiments clear evidence of sensitivity to scope from a policy point of view our results suggest that a policy mix combining a promotion of wind turbines with another green policy facilitates expansion of wind energy

wind power implementation the nature of public attitudes equity and fairness instead of backyard motives abstract public attitudes anywhere in europe show moderate to strong support for the implementation of renewable energy nevertheless planning wind power developments appears to be a complicated matter in most countries the problems that have to be dealt with during decision making processes on the siting of wind turbines are usually referred to as mere communication problems however public attitudes towards wind power are fundamentally different from attitudes towards wind farms this gap causes misunderstandings about the nature of public support for renewables in particular where planners easily assume support for renewables can be generated by information campaigns emphasising the environmental benefits whereas opposition to renewable energy schemes can be explained by a selfish not in my backyard attitude both explanations used by planners authorities and unfortunately by many scholars are falsified furthermore policies that still take this common knowledge for granted can have negative consequences for the implementation rates of renewables visual evaluation of the impact of wind power on landscape values is by far the dominant factor in explaining why some are opposed to wind power and others are supporting it moreover feelings about equity and fairness appear the determinants of backyard motives instead of selfishness

why inflation targeting central banks seem to follow a standard taylor rule abstract central banks only caring about inflation stability seem to follow a standard taylor rule the alleged reaction to the output gap could be a reaction of the nominal interest rate to variations in the natural real rate of interest

has ecb communication been helpful in predicting interest rate decisions an evaluation of the early years of the economic and monetary union we examine the usefulness of communication by the european central bank for predicting its policy decisions during the early years of the european economic and monetary union using ordered probit models based on the taylor rule we find that statements on the main refinancing rate and future inflation are significantly related to interest rate decisions at the same time an out of sample evaluation shows that communication based models do not outperform models based on macroeconomic data in predicting decisions both types of models have difficulty in predicting changes in the main refinancing rate

wind farm externalities and public preferences for community consultation in ireland a discrete choice experiments approach abstract in ireland the deployment of onshore wind turbines has become progressively more difficult in some areas because of the potential negative externalities associated with their operation using a discrete choice experiment dce we employ a willingness to accept framework to estimate the external effects of wind turbines on local residents with the inclusion of community consultation and to quantify the compensation required to permit wind farms to be built in ireland our findings reveal that the majority of respondents are willing to make monetary tradeoffs to allow for wind power initiatives and we find that respondents require less compensation if provision is made for a community representative and setback distance is increased

structural breaks in taylor rule based exchange rate models evidence from threshold time varying parameter models in this note we develop a taylor rule based empirical exchange rate model for eleven major currencies that endogenously determines the number of structural breaks in the coefficients using a constant parameter specification and a standard time varying parameter model as competitors reveals that our flexible modeling framework yields more precise density forecasts for all major currencies under scrutiny over the last 24 years

long term market overreaction the effect of low priced stocks conrad and kaul 1993 report that most of de bondt and thaler s 1985 long term overreaction findings can be attributed to a combination of bid ask effects when monthly cumulative average returns cars are used and price rather than prior returns in direct tests we find little difference in test period returns whether cars or buy and hold returns are used and that price has little predictive ability in cross sectional regressions the difference in findings between this study and conrad and kaul s is primarily due to their statistical methodology they confound cross sectional patterns and aggregate time series mean reversion and introduce a survivor bias their procedures increase the influence of price at the expense of prior returns

revealing additional dimensions of preference heterogeneity in a latent class mixed multinomial logit model latent class models offer an alternative perspective to the popular mixed logit form replacing the continuous distribution with a discrete distribution in which preference heterogeneity is captured by membership of distinct classes of utility description within each class preference homogeneity is usually assumed although interactions with observed contextual effects are permissible a natural extension of the fixed parameter latent class model is a random parameter latent class model which allows for another layer of preference heterogeneity within each class this article sets out the random parameter latent class model and illustrates its applications using a stated choice data set on alternative freight distribution attribute packages pivoted around a recent trip in australia

wind farms where and how to place them a choice experiment approach to measure consumer preferences for characteristics of wind farm establishments in sweden this paper explores preferences among the general public in sweden for attributes related to the establishment of wind power farms the method applied is a choice experiment where people are asked to choose between two hypothetical wind farms characterized by different attributes five attributes are included in the experiment i type of landscape ii type of ownership iii the degree of local participation in the planning process iv the choice to transfer revenue to the society in a pre specified way and v a monetary cost in terms of an additional electricity certificate fee the data are analyzed with multinomial logit random parameter logit and latent class models the results indicate that consumers in sweden are more likely to accept the higher renewable electricity certificate fee if a wind power farms in areas used for recreational purposes are substantially avoided b the establishment is anchored by whole or partial ownership in the local community and c the locals are involved in the planning and implementation process our policy simulation exercise shows that respondents are willing to pay a higher electricity fee corresponding to about 0 6 euro cents per kwh to avoid wind farms located in the mountainous area and private ownership

net foreign assets and the exchange rate redux revived abstract we revisit obstfeld and rogoff s 1995 results on exchange rate dynamics in a two country monetary model with incomplete asset markets stationary net foreign assets and endogenous monetary policy the nominal exchange rate exhibits a unit root under flexible prices it also depends on the stock of real net foreign assets with sticky prices the exchange rate depends on the past gdp differential along with net foreign assets endogenous monetary policy and asset dynamics have consequences for exchange rate overshooting a persistent relative productivity shock results in delayed overshooting under both flexible and sticky prices a persistent relative interest rate shock generates undershooting under flexible prices

willingness to accept local wind energy development does the compensation mechanism matter wind power development projects often include compensation for the affected communities but little is known about the efficacy of the alternative compensation mechanisms this study addresses this question by examining the relative potential of private and public compensation we conduct a choice experiment ce that investigates household preferences of compensation for the local siting of a hypothetical wind park households chose among different alternatives where each alternative was characterized by three varying attributes the number of turbines the level of private compensation and the level of public compensation results indicate the wind park imposes welfare losses to local residents and non local recreational users with about 35 of these losses corresponding to non use values findings show that households prefer public compensation to private compensation with household s willingness to accept being lower with public compensation than private compensation this finding suggests that estimates of local resistance to wind development depends on the compensation mechanism

misspecification of capital asset pricing this study documents empirical anomalies which suggest that either the simple one period capital asset pricing model capm is misspecified or that capital markets are inefficient in particular portfolios based on firm size or earnings price e p ratios experience average returns systematically different from those predicted by the capm furthermore the abnormal returns persist for at least two years this persistence reduces the likelihood that these results are being generated by a market inefficiency rather the evidence seems to indicate that the equilibrium pricing model is misspecified however the data also reveals that an e p effect does not emerge after returns are controlled for the firm size effect the firm size effect largely subsumes the e p effect thus while the e p anomaly and value anomaly exist when each variable is considered separately the two anomalies seem to be related to the same set of missing factors and these factors appear to be more closely associated with firm size than e p ratios

norms and economic motivation in the swedish green electricity market abstract the purpose of this paper is to provide an econometric analysis of the most important determinants of swedish households choice to pay a price premium for green electricity we draw on recent developments in the literature on integrating norm motivated behavior into neoclassical consumer theory and assume that individuals have a preference for keeping a self image as a morally responsible person consumer behavior in the green market place will then be heavily determined by how purchases of different goods affect this self image the analysis is based on postal survey responses from 655 swedish households which are analyzed within a binary choice econometric framework the results indicate that the impact of choosing green on the household budget largely influences the choice between green and brown electricity as does the degree of perceived personal responsibility for the issue and the felt ability to affect the outcome in a positive way we find limited support for the notion that perceptions about others behavior in general affect individual moral norms and ultimately expressed behavior but this is also complemented by the influence of explicit social influence the difficulty in observing others purchases makes it however difficult to distinguish between social and moral norms in the case of green electricity

monetary policy rules based on real time data this paper examines the magnitude of informational problems associated with the implementation and interpretation of simple monetary policy rules using taylor s rule as an example i demonstrate that real time policy recommendations differ considerably from those obtained with ex post revised data further estimated policy reaction functions based on ex post revised data provide misleading descriptions of historical policy and obscure the behavior suggested by information available to the federal reserve in real time these results indicate that reliance on the information actually available to policy makers in real time is essential for the analysis of monetary policy rules

the contrarian investment strategy does not work in canadian markets this paper tests the overreaction hypothesis using monthly data for stocks listed on the toronto stock exchange over the 1950 1988 period unlike de bondt and thaler 1985 1987 it finds statistically significant continuation behavior for the next one and two year s for winners and losers and insignificant reversal behavior for winners and losers over longer formation test periods of up to ten years while the systematic risks of the winners decrease significantly over all test periods the systematic risks of the losers increase significantly for only the 12 month formation test periods unlike chan 1988 the only significant change in variance from the formation to test periods occurs for the losers for the 12 month formation test periods the findings are robust for january versus non january and size based portfolios unlike zarowin 1989 1990 the findings are robust for various performance measures specifically market adjusted car and the jensen 1968 and sharpe 1966 portfolio performance measures

measuring abnormal performance do stocks overreact abstract a highly controversial issue in financial economies is whether stocks overreact in this paper we find an economically important overreaction effect even after adjusting for size and beta in portfolios formed on the basis of prior five year returns extreme prior losers outperform extreme prior winners by 5 10 per year during the subsequent five years although we find a pronounced january seasonal our evidence suggests that the overreaction effect is distinct from tax loss selling effects interestingly the overreaction effect is substantially stronger for smaller firms than for larger firms returns consistent with the overeaction hypothesis are also observed for short windows around quarterly earnings announcements

winner loser reversals in national stock market indices can they be explained this article examines possible explanations for winner loser reversals in the national stock market indices of 16 countries there is no evidence that loser countries are riskier than winner countries either in terms of standard deviations covariance with the world market or other risk factors or performance in adverse economic states of the world while there is evidence that small markets are subject to larger reversals than large markets perhaps due to some form of market imperfection the reversals are not only a small market phenomenon the apparent anomaly of winner loser reversals in national market indices therefore remains unresolved

the relation between the return interval and betas abstract the size effect is sensitive to the length of the return interval used in estimating betas beta changes with the return interval because an asset s covariance with the market and the market s variance do not change proportionately as the return interval is changed we document beta sensitivity to the return interval evidence from cross sectional regressions of returns on monthly and annual betas is inconsistent with beta changes stemming only from the higher standard errors of the longer interval betas we provide evidence that the size effect becomes statistically insignificant when risk is measured by betas estimated using annual returns

acceptance of wind power development and exposure not in anybody s backyard abstract despite a large stated preference sp literature on wind power externalities few sp studies employ a case control approach to examine whether people s acceptance of new wind power developments and renewable energy initiatives increases or decreases with exposure furthermore the existing studies are inconclusive on this issue in a case control discrete choice experiment we measure the level of acceptance in terms of people s willingness to accept wta for having future land based wind power developments in norway comparing exposed and non exposed people s wta we find that exposure lowers acceptance furthermore exposed people are also unwilling to pay as much to increase general domestic renewable energy production from all sources as non exposed people and thus have lower acceptance for such renewable energy policy initiatives after testing for type of exposure we argue that the inconclusiveness in the literature of how exposure affects acceptance of wind power developments could be due to the fact that impacts considered differ somewhat across studies

risk aversion uncertain information and market efficiency abstract this paper develops and tests the uncertain information hypothesis as a means of explaining the response of rational risk averse investors to the arrival of unanticipated information the theory predicts that following news of a dramatic financial event both the risk and expected return of the affected companies increase systematically and that prices react more strongly to bad news than good an empirical investigation of over 9000 marketwide and firm specific events produces results consistent with these predictions we conclude that the market reacts to uncertain information in an efficient if not instantaneous manner

taylor rules and the deutschmark dollar real exchange rate we explore the link between an interest rate rule for monetary policy and the behavior of the real exchange rate the interest rate rule in conjunction with some standard assumptions implies that the deviation of the real exchange rate from its steady state depends on the present value of a weighted sum of inflation and output gap differentials the weights are functions of the parameters of the interest rate rule an initial look at german data yields some support for the model

anomalies foreign exchange most all behavior can be explained by assuming that agents have stable well defined preferences and make rational choices consistent with those preferences in markets that eventually clear an empirical result qualifies as an anomaly if it is difficult to rationalize or if implausible assumptions are necessary to explain it within the paradigm this column will present a series of such anomalies readers are invited to suggest topics for future columns by sending a note with some reference to or better yet copies of the relevant research comments on anomalies printed here are also welcome the address

do professional forecasters trust in taylor type rules evidence from the wall street journal poll this article uses the monthly wall street journal poll between 2002 and 2010 to analyse whether professional economic forecasters believe in and thus apply taylor type rules for their own forecasts using their forecasts for the federal funds rate the inflation rate and capacity utilization we estimate whether these are internally consistent with the message of taylor type rules we find that the expectation formation can indeed be described by taylor type rules

exchange rate predictability the main goal of this article is to provide an answer to the question does anything forecast exchange rates and if so which variables it is well known that exchange rate fluctuations are very difficult to predict using economic models and that a random walk forecasts exchange rates better than any economic model the meese and rogoff puzzle however the recent literature has identified a series of fundamentals methodologies that claim to have resolved the puzzle this article provides a critical review of the recent literature on exchange rate forecasting and illustrates the new methodologies and fundamentals that have been recently proposed in an up to date thorough empirical analysis overall our analysis of the literature and the data suggests that the answer to the question are exchange rates predictable is it depends on the choice of predictor forecast horizon sample period model and forecast evaluation method predictability is most apparent when one or more of the following hold the predictors are taylor rule or net foreign assets the model is linear and a small number of parameters are estimated the toughest benchmark is the random walk without drift

economic evaluation of environmental externalities in china s coal fired power generation abstract serious environmental externalities exist in china s power industry environmental economics theory suggests that the evaluation of environmental externality is the basis of designing an efficient regulation the purposes of this study are 1 to identify chinese respondents preferences for green development of electric power industry and the socio economic characteristics behind them 2 to investigate the different attitudes of the respondents towards pollution and co2 reduction 3 to quantitatively evaluate the environmental cost of china s coal fired power generation based on the method of choice experiments ce and the 411 questionnaires with 2466 data points we found that chinese respondents prefer pm2 5 so2 and nox reduction to co2 reduction and that the environment cost of coal fired power plants in china is 0 30 yuan per kwh in addition we found that the socio economic characteristics of income education gender and environmental awareness have significant impacts on respondents choices these findings indicate that the environmental cost of coal fired power generation is a significant factor that requires great consideration in the formulation of electric power development policies in addition importance should also be attached to the implementation of green power price policy and enhancement of environmental protection awareness

taylor rules with real time data a tale of two countries and one exchange rate abstract using real time data that reflects information available to monetary authorities at the time they are formulating policy we find that estimated taylor rules based on revised and real time data differ more for germany than for the u s taylor rules using real time data suggest differences between u s and german monetary policies and taylor rules for the u s using inflation forecasts are nearly identical to those using lagged inflation rates evidence of out of sample predictability for the dollar mark nominal exchange rate with forecasts based on taylor rule fundamentals is only found with real time data and does not increase if inflation forecasts are used

using conjoint analysis to quantify public preferences over the environmental impacts of wind farms an example from spain this paper focuses on the effect on people s utility of the potential environmental impacts of wind farm developments we report on research designed to provide insight into their preferences and we show how two alternative choice modelling techniques can be used to estimate them our results show that significant social costs in the form of environmental impacts can be associated with wind farm developments as relative environmental values are revealed by these methods it would be possible to develop wind farms in such a way that minimises the total social costs of the investment and which maximises its net benefits

the taylor rule and optimal monetary policy where it denotes the fed s operating target for the federal funds rate pt is the inflation rate measured by the gdp deflator yt is the log of real gdp and y t is the log of potential output identified empirically with a linear trend the rule has since been subject to considerable attention both as an account of actual policy in the united states and elsewhere and as a prescription for desirable policy taylor argues for the rule s normative significance both on the basis of simulations and on the ground that it describes u s policy in a period in which monetary policy is widely judged to have been unusually successful taylor 1999 suggesting that the rule is worth adopting as a principle of behavior here i wish to consider to what extent this prescription resembles the sort of policy that economic theory would recommend i consider the question in the context of a simple but widely used optimizing model of the monetary transmission mechanism which allows one to reach clear conclusions about economic welfare the model is highly stylized but incorporates important features of more realistic models and allows me to make several points that are of more general validity out of concern for the robustness of the conclusions reached the analysis here addresses only broad qualitative features of the taylor rule and attempts to identify features of a desirable policy rule that are likely to hold under a variety of model specifications

forecasting exchange rates out of sample with panel methods and real time data abstract this paper evaluates out of sample exchange rate forecasting with purchasing power parity ppp and taylor rule fundamentals for 9 oecd countries vis a vis the u s dollar over the period from 1973 q1 to 2009 q1 at short and long horizons in contrast with previous work which reports forecasts using revised data i construct a quarterly real time dataset that incorporates only the information available to market participants when the forecasts were made using bootstrapped out of sample test statistics the exchange rate model with taylor rule fundamentals performs better at the one quarter horizon and panel estimation is not able to improve its performance the ppp model however forecasts better at the 16 quarter horizon and its performance increases in panel framework the results are in accord with previous research on ppp and taylor rule models

risk inflation and the stock market most explanations for the decline in share values over the past two decades have focused on the concurrent increase in inflation this paper considers an alternative explanation a substantial increase in the riskiness of capital investments we show that the variance of firms real gross marginal return on capital has increased significantly increasing the relative riskiness of investors returns on equity and that this can explain a large part of the market decline we also assess the effects of increase in the mean and variance of the inflation rate and a decline in firms expected return on capital this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

heterogeneous preferences toward landscape externalities of wind turbines combining choices and attitudes in a hybrid model abstract expanding the share of renewable energy sources might substantially increase externalities as for example wind turbines may disturb the landscape and negatively affect biodiversity this paper investigates the public s sensitivities towards these externalities by using discrete choice experiments and shows how preferences differ across inhabitants of our study region as a further insight into the sources for these variations a hybrid choice model is employed in order to incorporate individuals latent attitudes in the estimated model our latent class structure allocates individuals to classes according to underlying latent attitudes that also influence the answers to attitudinal questions we show that these underlying attitudes are a function of a number of socio demographic characteristics with young people men with low income and those living closer to turbines having a stronger pro wind power generation attitude the inclusion of the attitudes in the class allocation component of the latent class model leads to a richer picture of people s valuations revealing for example antagonistic preferences of two distinct groups of respondents i e advocates and opponents of wind power generation

predictable patterns after large stock price changes on the tokyo stock exchange this paper extends to japanese stocks recent research on short term stock price adjustment to new information using standard methodologies we find that stock returns of firms included in the nikkei 300 tend to be significantly positive after large price decreases this is similar to the pattern observed for american stocks in other research the pattern remains when returns are adjusted for market movements and exists independently of the october 1987 market break we find little evidence of significant patterns following large stock price increases we also find little evidence that non transaction prices explain the persistent significant returns observed following large price decreases on the tokyo stock exchange we conjecture that broker dealers and tse member firms respond to large price decreases not by trading for their own profit but rather by selectively supplying liquidity to their preferred retail customers we conclude that ordinary investors probably cannot earn economic profits from these statistically significant patterns

the robustness and efficiency of monetary policy rules as guidelines for interest rate setting by the european central bank abstract this paper examines the implications of recent research on monetary policy rules for practical monetary policy making with special emphasis on strategies for setting interest rates by the european central bank ecb the paper draws on recent research and new simulations of a large open economy model to assess the efficiency of a simple benchmark rule in comparison with other proposed rules further it stresses new results on the robustness of monetary policy rules in which each rule that is optimal or good according to one model or researcher is tested for robustness by other researchers using different models because of the large increase in the number of economists focussing on econometric evaluation of monetary policy rules for the interest rate instrument and because of the parallel increase in the variety of models being developed for this purpose much more evidence is becoming available on the robustness of simple monetary policy rules for the interest rate than ever before

taylor rule deviations and out of sample exchange rate predictability abstract the taylor rule has become the dominant model for academic evaluation of out of sample exchange rate predictability two versions of the taylor rule model are the taylor rule fundamentals model where the variables that enter the taylor rule are used to forecast exchange rate changes and the taylor rule differentials model where a taylor rule with postulated coefficients is used in the forecasting regression we use data from 1973 to 2014 to evaluate short run out of sample predictability for eight exchange rates vis a vis the u s dollar and find strong evidence in favor of the taylor rule fundamentals model alternative against the random walk null the evidence of predictability is weaker with the taylor rule differentials model and still weaker with the traditional interest rate differential purchasing power parity and monetary models the evidence of predictability for the fundamentals model is not related to deviations from the original taylor rule for the u s but is related to deviations from a modified taylor rule for the u s with a higher coefficient on the output gap the evidence of predictability is also unrelated to deviations from taylor rules for the foreign countries and adherence to the taylor principle for the u s

term structure evidence on interest rate smoothing and monetary policy inertia abstract numerous studies have used quarterly data to estimate monetary policy rules or reaction functions that appear to exhibit a very slow partial adjustment of the policy interest rate the conventional wisdom asserts that this gradual adjustment reflects a policy inertia or interest rate smoothing behavior by central banks however such quarterly monetary policy inertia would imply a large amount of forecastable variation in interest rates at horizons of more than 3 months which is contradicted by evidence from the term structure of interest rates the illusion of monetary policy inertia evident in the estimated policy rules likely reflects the persistent shocks that central banks face

are stock price reversals really asymmetric a note abstract one of the enigmatic findings about the stock market overreaction effect is that it is asymmetric we argue that this apparent anomaly may be entirely illusory resulting from the peculiar properties of returns the test period return on a contrarian portfolio is not always a satisfactory measure of the strength of price reversals this also renders interportfolio comparisons about the symmetry of reversals more difficult we develop an alternative measure the reversal coefficient which takes account of this deficiency some empirical corroboration is also provided

the taylor rule and interest rates in the emu area abstract we demonstrate that average interest rates in the emu countries in 1990 98 with the exception of the period of exchange market turmoil in 1992 93 moved very closely with average output gaps and inflation as suggested by the taylor rule

landscape externalities from onshore wind power the expansion of renewable energy is a central element of the german federal government s climate and energy policy the target for 2020 is to produce 30 of the electricity from renewable energies wind power has been selected to be a major contributor to this change replacing old wind turbines by modern ones and building new turbines on land will be crucial in meeting this target however the expansion of onshore wind power is not universally accepted in several regions of germany residents are protesting against setting up new wind turbines to determine the negative effects two choice experiments were applied in westsachsen and nordhessen germany in both regions the externalities of wind power generation until 2020 based on today s state of technology were measured the results show that negative landscape externalities would result from expanding wind power generation using latent class models three different groups of respondents experiencing different degrees of externalities were identified

has u s monetary policy changed evidence from drifting coefficients and real time data despite the large amount of empirical research on monetary policy rules there is surprisingly little consensus on the nature or even the existence of changes in the conduct of u s monetary policy three issues appear central to this disagreement 1 the specific type of changes in the policy coefficients 2 the treatment of heteroskedasticity and 3 the real time nature of the data used this paper addresses these issues in the context of forwardlooking taylor rules with drifting coefficients the estimation is based on real time data and accounts for the presence of heteroskedasticity in the policy shock the findings suggest important but gradual changes in the rule coefficients not adequately captured by the usual split sample estimation in contrast to orphanides 2002 2003 i find that the fed s response to the real time forecast of inflation was weak in the second half of the 1970s perhaps not satisfying taylor s principle as suggested by clarida gali and gertler 2000 however the response to inflation was strong before 1973 and gradually regained strength from the early 1980s onward moreover as in orphanides 2003 the fed s response to real activity fell substantially and lastingly during the 1970s

exchange rate determination under interest rate rules we propose a theory of exchange rate determination under interest rate rules in a two country model we first show that simple interest rate feedback rules can determine a unique and stable equilibrium without any explicit reaction to the nominal exchange rate we characterize how the behavior of the exchange rate and of the terms of trade depends in a critical way on the monetary regime chosen though not necessarily on monetary shocks we give a simple account of exchange rate volatility in terms of monetary policy rules we provide an explanation of the relation between nominal exchange rate volatility and macroeconomic variability in terms of the monetary regime adopted by monetary authorities

the uncovered interest parity puzzle exchange rate forecasting and taylor rules abstract recent research has found that the taylor rule fundamentals have power to forecast changes in u s dollar exchange rates out of sample our work casts some doubt on that claim however we find strong evidence of a related in sample anomaly when we include u s inflation in the well known uncovered interest parity regression of the change in the exchange rate on the interest rate differential we find that the inflation variable is highly significant and the interest rate differential is not specifically high u s inflation in one month forecasts dollar appreciation in the subsequent month we introduce a model in which a taylor rule determines monetary policy but in which not only monetary shocks but also liquidity shocks drive nominal interest rates this model can potentially account for the empirical findings

forecast uncertainty and the taylor rule abstract in this paper we derive a modification of a forward looking taylor rule by integrating two variables that measure the uncertainty of inflation and gdp growth forecasts into an otherwise standard new keynesian model we show that certainty equivalence in new keynesian models is a consequence of log linearization and that a second order taylor approximation leads to a reaction function that includes the uncertainty of macroeconomic expectations to test the model empirically we use the standard deviation of individual forecasts around the median consensus forecast as a proxy for forecast uncertainty our sample covers the euro area the united kingdom and the united states for the period 1990q1 2016q4 we find that the bank of england and the european central bank have a significantly negative reaction to inflation forecast uncertainty our findings also reveal that the federal reserve bank of england lowers raises its interest rate in response to higher gdp growth forecast uncertainty we conclude by offering some implications for optimal monetary policy rules and central bank watchers

the taylor rule and forecast intervals for exchange rates in this paper we examine the meese rogoff puzzle from a different perspective out of sample interval forecasting while most studies in the literature focus on point forecasts we apply semiparametric interval forecasting to a group of exchange rate models forecast intervals for 10 oecd exchange rates are generated and the performance of the empirical exchange rate models are compared with the random walk our contribution is twofold first we find that in general exchange rate models generate tighter forecast intervals than the random walk given that their intervals cover out of sample exchange rate realizations equally well our results suggest a connection between exchange rates and economic fundamentals economic variables contain information useful in forecasting distributions of exchange rates we also find that the benchmark taylor rule model performs better than the monetary ppp and forward premium models and its advantages are more pronounced at longer horizons second the bootstrap inference framework proposed in this paper for forecast interval evaluation can be applied in a broader context such as inflation forecasting

inflation targeting makes the difference novel evidence on inflation stabilization abstract though svensson 1997 svensson 2003 provides theoretical evidence that the introduction of inflation targeting is consistent with an inflation stabilizing monetary policy empirical evidence that the introduction of inflation targeting actually changes central bank s behavior is still missing this paper aims to close this gap and estimates forward looking monetary policy rules for 20 inflation targeting countries to this end we use a data set which is available to the central bank in real time published on a frequently basis comparable among all countries and which includes the periods before and after the introduction of inflation targeting we find that the introduction of inflation targeting significantly shifts the central bank s reaction function toward inflation stabilizing we also provide evidence of time varying effects and find that central banks stabilize inflation once inflation targeting is introduced we take our results as strong evidence that the introduction of inflation targeting makes the difference for monetary policy strategies

hydropower externalities a meta analysis this paper presents a meta analysis of existing research related to the economic valuation of the external effects of hydropower a database consisting of 81 observations derived from 29 studies valuing the non market impacts of hydropower electricity generation is constructed with the main aim to quantify and explain the economic values for positive and negative hydropower externalities different meta regression model specifications are used to test the robustness of significant determinants of non market values including different types of hydropower impacts the explanatory and predictive power of the estimated models is relatively high whilst controlling for sample and study characteristics we find significant evidence for public aversion towards deteriorations of landscape vegetation and wildlife caused by hydropower projects there is however only weak evidence of willingness to pay for mitigating these effects the main positive externality of hydropower generation the avoidance of greenhouse gas emission positively influences welfare estimates when combined with the share of hydropower in national energy production sensitivity to scope is detected but not linked to specific externalities or non market valuation methods

what is wrong with taylor rules using judgment in monetary policy through targeting rules it is argued that inflation targeting is best understood as a commitment to a targeting rule rather than an instrument rule e ither ageneral targeting rule explicit objectives for monetary policy or a specific targeting rule a criterion for the forecasts of the target variables to be fulfilled essentially the equality of the marginal rates of transformation and substitution between the target variables targeting rules allow the use of judgment and extramodel information are more robust and easier to verify than optimal instrument rules and they can nevertheless bring the economy close to the socially optimal equilibrium

overreaction in the brazilian stock market abstract the overreaction hypothesis on a new set of data for the brazilian stock market over the period 1970 1989 is investigated both market adjusted returns and the standard sharpe lintner capm adjusted returns are used price reversals in 2 year returns are detected and the results contrast with the u s evidence in that the magnitude of the effect is more pronounced than in the u s the results also suggest that differences in risk as measured by capm betas using the method suggested by chan chan k c 1988 on the contrarian investment strategy journal of business 61 147 163 cannot account for the overreaction effect i also examine the issue of asymmetry versus symmetry in the overreaction effect using the criterion proposed by dissanaike dissanaike g 1992 are stock price reversals really symmetric university of cambridge department of applied economics discussion paper af series no 4 i find evidence that the price reversals are asymmetric

expectations and the quantity equation evidence from eastern european countries this article analyses the usefulness of the quantity equation from the financial market s view we use more than 10 000 forecasts of financial analysts concerning projections of the growth rate of money supply prices and real output for six central and eastern european countries to test whether they are internally consistent with the quantity equation in particular we report that forecasts are consistent with the quantity equation in high inflation countries and high inflation regimes

uk unit trust performance 1980 1989 a passive time varying approach abstract this paper indirectly tests the efficient markets hypothesis by analysing the performance of 30 authorised unit trusts from 1980 through 1989 the risk return relationship of the funds is allowed to vary in a generalised manner thus allowing for passive structural change in underlying economic relationships our findings suggest that 21 of the 30 trusts in the sample were able to supply investment opportunities to the individual investor which were superior to a buy and hold strategy

the long term effect of renewable electricity on employment in the united kingdom abstract assessment of the employment impact of renewable electricity technologies is generally implemented through either complex and data intensive methods such as computable general equilibrium models or simplistic approaches normally focused on specific energy generation technologies such as employment factors in contrast this article proposes a transparent and easily reproducible econometric methodology based on the vector error correction model that uses aggregated and widely available data the model is applied to the power generation sector in the united kingdom using annual data from 1990 onwards and provides evidence that the long term employment impact of renewable technologies is much higher than the impact arising from deploying nuclear or natural gas technologies the impulse response function analysis indicates that a permanent 1 gigawatt hours increase in annual electricity supply generated by renewable technologies creates 3 5 jobs in the long term period finally this study derives the implications of the findings in the context of decarbonisation scenarios for the power sector in the united kingdom and assesses the extent to which decarbonisation pathways based on renewable electricity contribute to stimulating employment in the generation sector

out of sample exchange rate predictability with taylor rule fundamentals abstract an extensive literature that studied the performance of empirical exchange rate models following meese and rogoff s meese r a rogoff k 1983a empirical exchange rate models of the seventies do they fit out of sample journal of international economics 14 3 24 seminal paper has not convincingly found evidence of out of sample exchange rate predictability this paper extends the conventional set of models of exchange rate determination by investigating predictability of models that incorporate taylor rule fundamentals we find evidence of short term predictability for 11 out of 12 currencies vis a vis the u s dollar over the post bretton woods float with the strongest evidence coming from specifications that incorporate heterogeneous coefficients and interest rate smoothing the evidence of predictability is much stronger with taylor rule models than with conventional interest rate purchasing power parity or monetary models

on back testing zero investment strategies zero investment strategies typically involve forming a long portfolio in one set of securities and a short portfolio in another with the two identified by the use of some trading rule when back testing such strategies the ex post difference in their abnormal returns represents an unbiased estimate of their economic profitability in perfect markets and thus serves as an indication of market efficiency however regulation t s short selling constraints are a potentially significant imperfection facing retail and institutional investors after development of a procedure that recognizes these constraints in measuring returns the impact of these constraints on economic profitability is analyzed copyright 2000 by university of chicago press