who withdraws housing equity and why the decision to extract home equity is examined using household level data for the uk over 1993 2003 at its peak during the period around 1 in 10 homeowners withdraw equity per year little is known about this financial decision i find that the equity withdrawal decision conforms to predictions from the standard life cycle framework and models that predict its use as a financial buffer the paper also estimates responses to the large house price appreciation and significant reductions in mortgage rates seen during the period

tell me something i don t already know informedness and the impact of information programs we document how imperfect information generates heterogeneous effects in information treatments with personalized high frequency feedback and peer comparisons in our field experiment in retail electricity we find that high and low energy users symmetrically underestimate and overestimate their relative energy use pre treatment responses to personalized feedback however are asymmetric households that overestimate their relative use and low users both respond by consuming more these boomerang effects provide evidence that peer comparison information programs even those coupled with normative comparisons are not guaranteed to lead to increases in prosocial behavior jel codes c93 d12 d83 l94 q41

cooperative and noncooperative r d in duopoly with spillovers contrary to the usual assumption made in most oligopoly models relations among firms are seldom of a wholly cooperative or noncooperative type in many situations they compete in some fields while they cooperate in others an important example is the case of cooperative research efforts bringing fierce competitors together two types of agreement are observed first r d cooperation can take place at the so called precompetitive stage companies share basic information and efforts in the r d stage but remain rivals in the market place 1 a second type of agreement involves an extended collusion between partners creating common policies at the product level the usual justifications of this extension are the difficulties of protecting intellectual property the idea is then to allow partners who have achieved inventions together to also control together the processes and products which embody the results of their collaboration in order to recuperate jointly their r d investments 2 what could be expected from these types of agreement is a reduction in r d expenditures because of less wasteful duplication and a reduction of total production because of more reprinted from the american economic review 78 5 1133 1137 1988 center for operations research econometrics 1348 louvain la neuve belgium we are grateful to jean

time preferences and mortgage choice abstractmortgage decisions have important consequences for consumers lenders and the state of the economy more generally mortgage decisions are also prototypical of consumer financial choices that involve a stream of expenditures and consumption occurring across time the authors use heterogeneity in time preferences for both immediate present bias and long term outcomes to explain a sequence of mortgage decisions including mortgage choice and the decision to abandon a mortgage the authors employ an analytic model and a survey of mortgaged households augmented by zip code level house price and foreclosure data the model suggests and data confirm that consumers with greater present bias and long term discounting tend to choose mortgages that minimize up front costs however greater present bias decreases homeowners willingness to abandon a mortgage locking them into the contract long term patience increases mortgage abandonment this reversal across mortgage decisions is difficult for alternati

collateral damage refinancing constraints and regional recessions in the current structure of the u s residential mortgage market a decrease in property values may make it very difficult for homeowners to refinance their mortgages to take advantage of declining interest rates in this papr we show that this form of collateral constraint has greatly reduced refinancing in statds with depressed property markets we outline the interaction between regional recessions and refinancing constraints when adverse economic shocks cause property values in a region to decrease the damage to the collateral makes it difficult or impossible for some homeowners to obtain new mortgages in the recent period this has meant that homeowners in economically depressed regions have been unable to refinance their mortgages to take advantage of declining interest rates this inability to refinance has further economic impacts on the region through lowering the wealth and the discretionary income of local homeowners thereby deepening the regional recession while the possible link between regional declines in property values and refinancing activity has been understood for some time for example monsen 1992 the subject has received very little empirical attention we provide the first quantitative assessment of the impact of constraints arising from regional property market dynamics on refinancing activity to accomplish this we use a new data set on more than thirty five thousand individual mortgages the sample consists of all mortgages serviced by chemical bank with originations between june 1989 and may 1992

the perceived returns to education and the demand for schooling economists emphasize the link between market returns to education and investments in schooling though many studies estimate these returns with earnings data it is the perceived returns that affect schooling decisions and these perceptions may be inaccurate using survey data for eighth grade boys in the dominican republic we find that the perceived returns to secondary school are extremely low despite high measured returns students at randomly selected schools given information on the higher measured returns completed on average 0 20 0 35 more years of school over the next four years than those who were not

social norms and energy conservation beyond the us abstract the seminal studies by allcott and mullainathan 2010 allcott 2011 and allcott and rogers 2014 show that social comparison based home energy reports her are a cost effective climate policy intervention in the us our paper demonstrates the context dependency of this result in most industrialized countries average electricity consumption and carbon intensity are well below us levels consequently her interventions can only become cost effective if treatment effect sizes are substantially higher for germany we provide evidence from a large scale randomized controlled trial that effect sizes are in fact considerably lower than in the us we conclude by illustrating that targeting highly responsive subgroups is crucial to reach cost effectiveness and by identifying the few countries in which her are promising policy instruments

awards unbundled evidence from a natural field experiment organizations often use non monetary awards to incentivize performance awards may affect behavior through several mechanisms by conferring employer recognition by enhancing social visibility and by facilitating social comparison in a nationwide health worker training program in zambia we design a field experiment to unbundle these mechanisms we find that employer recognition and social visibility increase performance while social comparison reduces it especially for low ability trainees these effects appear when treatments are announced and persist through training the findings are consistent with a model of optimal expectations in which low ability individuals exert low effort in order to avoid information about their relative ability

household risk management and optimal mortgage choice the portfolio of the typical american household is quite unlike the diversie ed portfolio of liquid assets discussed in e nance textbooks the major asset in the portfolio is a house a relatively illiquid asset with an uncertain capital value the value of the house generally exceeds the net worth of the household which e nances its homeownership through a mortgage contract to create a leveraged position in residential real estate other e nancial assets and liabilities are typically far less important than the house and its associated mortgage contract the importance of housing in household wealth is illustrated in figure i this e gure plots the fraction of household assets in housing and in equities against the wealth percentile of the household poor households appear at the left of the e gure and wealthy households at the right data come from the 1989 and 1998 survey of consumer finances the e gure shows that middle class american families from roughly the fortieth to the eightieth percentile of the wealth distribution have more than half their assets in the form of housing even after the expansion of equity ownership during the 1990s equities are of negligible importance for these households 1

the importance of being informed experimental evidence on demand for environmental quality abstract to what extent does information affect the demand for environmental quality a randomly selected group of households in an indian city were informed whether or not their drinking water had tested positive for fecal contamination using a simple inexpensive test kit households initially not purifying their water and told that their drinking water was possibly contaminated were 11 percentage points more likely to begin some form of home purification in the next eight weeks than households that received no information they spent 7 24 at ppp more on purification than control households by way of comparison an additional year of schooling of the most educated male in the household is associated with a 3 percentage point rise in the probability of initial purification while a standard deviation increase in the wealth index is associated with a 12 percentage point rise in this probability and an 11 75 rise in expenditure initially purifying households that received a no contamination result did not react by reducing purification these results suggest that estimates of the demand for environment quality that assume full information may significantly under estimate it

prepayment and the valuation of mortgage backed securities this paper puts forward a valuation framework for mortgage backed securities rather than imposing an optimal value minimizing call condition we assume that at each point in time there exists a probability of prepaying this conditional probability depends upon the prevailing state of the economy to implement our valuation procedure we use maximum likelihood techniques to estimate a prepayment function in light of recent aggregate gnma prepayment experience by integrating this empirical prepayment function into our valuation framework we provide a complete model to value mortgagebacked securities given an optimal value minimizing call policy a mortgage should never be called when its market value is less than its call price similarly a mortgage should be called if it is worth more than its call price however mortgagors often call their loans when the prevailing refinancing rate exceeds the contract rate on the loan dunn and mcconnell 1981 in addition some mortgagors do not call their loans when the loan s contract rate exceeds the prevailing refinancing rate the purpose of this paper is to put forward a valuation framework for mortgagebacked securities consistent with these stylized facts associated with mortgage prepayments the mortgagor s prepayment decision is integral to our valuation framework however we do not impose an optimal value minimizing call condition to price these securities rather we assume that at each point in time there exists a probability of prepaying this conditional probability depending upon the prevailing state of the economy by integrating this prepayment function into our valuation framework we provide a complete model to value mortgage backed securities to implement our valuation procedures we estimate a prepayment function given recent gnma prepayment experience we follow green and shoven 1986 by using a proportional hazards model to estimate the influence of various explanatory variables or covariates on the mortgagor s prepayment decision distinct from green and shoven we explicitly model the effects of seasoning as well as investigating the influence of interest cost savings from refinancing in addition we also consider the effects of lagged refinancing rates heterogeneity

what mean impacts miss distributional effects of welfare reform experiments labor supply theory predicts systematic heterogeneity in the impact of recent welfare reforms on earnings transfers and income yet most welfare reform research focuses on mean impacts we investigate the importance of heterogeneity using random assignment data from connecticut s jobs first waiver which features key elements of post 1996 welfare programs estimated quantile treatment effects exhibit the substantial heterogeneity predicted by labor supply theory thus mean impacts miss a great deal looking separately at samples of dropouts and other women does not improve the performance of mean impacts we conclude that welfare reform s effects are likely both more varied and more extensive than has been recognized

paying not to go to the gym how do consumers choose from a menu of contracts we analyze a novel dataset from three u s health clubs with information on both the contractual choice and the day to day attendance decisions of 7 752 members over three years the observed consumer behavior is difficult to reconcile with standard preferences and beliefs first members who choose a contract with a flat monthly fee of over 70 attend on average 4 3 times per month they pay a price per expected visit of more than 17 even though they could pay 10 per visit using a 10 visit pass on average these users forgo savings of 600 during their membership second consumers who choose a monthly contract are 17 percent more likely to stay enrolled beyond one year than users committing for a year this is surprising because monthly members pay higher fees for the option to cancel each month we also document cancellation delays and attendance expectations among other findings leading explanations for our findings are overconfidence about future self control or about future efficiency overconfident agents overestimate attendance as well as the cancellation probability of automatically renewed contracts our results suggest that making inferences from observed contract choice under the rational expectation hypothesis can lead to biases in the estimation of consumer preferences

overcoming salience bias how real time feedback fosters resource conservation inattention and imperfect information bias behavior toward the salient and immediately visible this distortion creates costs for individuals the organizations in which they work and society at l

overconfidence and social signalling evidence from both psychology and economics indicates that individuals give statements that appear to overestimate their ability compared to that of others we test three theories that predict such relative overconfidence the first theory argues that overconfidence can be generated by bayesian updating from a common prior and truthful statements if individuals do not know their true type the second theory suggests that self image concerns asymmetrically affect the choice to receive new information about one s abilities and this asymmetry can produce overconfidence the third theory is that overconfidence is induced by the desire to send positive signals to others about one s own skill this suggests either a bias in judgement strategic lying or both we formulate this theory precisely using a large data set of relative ability judgements about two cognitive tests we reject the restrictions imposed by the bayesian model and also reject a key prediction of the self image models that individuals with optimistic beliefs will be less likely to search for further information about their skill because this information might shatter their self image we provide evidence that personality traits strongly affect relative ability judgements in a pattern that is consistent with the third theory of social signalling our results together suggest that overconfidence in statements is more likely to be induced by social concerns than by either of the other two factors copyright 2013 oxford university press

the nature of precautionary wealth abstract this paper uses the panel study of income dynamics to provide some of the first direct evidence that wealth is systematically higher for consumers with predictably greater income uncertainty however the apparent pattern of precautionary wealth is not consistent with a standard parameterization of the life cucle model in which consumers are patient enough to begin saving for retirement early in life wealth is estimated to be far less sensitive to uncertainty than implied by that model instead our results suggest that over most of their working life time consumers behave in accordance with the buffer stock models of saving described in carroll 1992 1997 or deaton 1991 in which consumers hold wealth principally to insulate consumption against near term fluctuations in income

who should buy long term bonds according to conventional wisdom long term bonds are appropriate for conservative long term investors this paper develops a model of optimal consumption and portfolio choice for infinite lived investors with recursive utility who face stochastic interest rates solves the model using an approximate analytical method and evaluates conventional wisdom as risk aversion increases the myopic component of risky asset demand disappears but the intertemporal hedging component does not conservative investors hold assets to hedge the risk that real interest rates will decline long term inflation indexed bonds are most suitable for this purpose but nominal bonds may also be used if inflation risk is low

rational prepayment and the valuation of mortgage backed securities this article presents a new model of mortgage prepayments based on rational decisions by mortgage holders these mortgage bolders face beterogeneous transaction costs which are explicitly modeled the model is estimated using a version of hansen s 1982 generalized method of moments and is sbown to capture many of the empirical features of mortgage prepayment estimation results indicate that mortgage holders act as tbougb tbey face transaction costs tbat far exceed tbe explicit costs usually incurred on refinancing they also wait an average of more than a year before refinancing even when it is optimal to do so the model fits observed prepayment behavior as well as thee recent empirical model of schwartz and torous 1989 implications for pricing mortgage backed securities are discussed

interest rate changes mortgages and consumption evidence from italy summaryusing the italian survey of household income and wealth we study whether the drop in interest rates following the great recession was associated with an increase in consumption for households with adjustable rate mortgages arm relative to those with fixed rate mortgages frm after the reduction in mortgage payments consumption of arm holders increases relative to frm but the implied marginal propensity to consume is not statistically different from zero we suggest three explanations for the weak consumption response to the income shock first cash on hand and debt heterogeneity may attenuate the consumption response second borrowers believe that the income shock was short lasting and that interest rates would likely increase in the future implying a small effect on consumption third the shock is offset partly by a reduction in income from financial assets owned by mortgagors the findings have implications for the conduct of monetary policy interventions and the credibility of the future path of interest rates pass through of monetary policy and design of the mortgage market

comparison friction experimental evidence from medicare drug plans consumers need information to compare alternatives for markets to function efficiently recognizing this public policies often pair competition with easy access to comparative information the implicit assumption is that comparison friction the wedge between the availability of comparative information and consumers use of it is inconsequential because information is readily available and consumers will access this information and make effective choices we examine the extent of comparison friction in the market for medicare part d prescription drug plans in the united states in a randomized field experiment an intervention group received a letter with personalized cost information that information was readily available for free and widely advertised however this additional step providing the information rather than having consumers actively access it had an impact plan switching was 28 percent in the intervention group versus 17 percent in the comparison group and the intervention caused an average decline in predicted consumer cost of about 100 per year among letter recipients roughly 5 percent of the cost in the comparison group our results suggest that comparison friction can be large even when the cost of acquiring information is small and may be relevant for a wide range of public policies that incorporate consumer choice

mortgage valuation under optimal prepayment mortgage originators offer borrowers various combinations of points loan fees and coupon high points and low coupon or low points and high coupon in this article points are interpreted as a device serving to separate borrowers with high prepayment probabilities from those with low prepayment probabilities borrowers and lenders are treated symmetrically both are risk neutral and both have complete and frictionless access to credit markets implying that borrowers can finance points if they wish except that borrowers prepayment speeds are private knowledge equilibria are derived both when borrowers cannot prepay voluntarily and when they can article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

mortgage default during the u s mortgage crisis this paper asks which theories of mortgage default are quantitatively consistent with observations in the united states during 2002 2010 theoretical models are simulated for the observed time series of aggregate house prices their predictions are then compared to actual default rates on prime fixed rate mortgages an out of sample test discriminates between estimated reduced forms of the two most prominent theories the test reveals that the doubletrigger hypothesis attributing mortgage default to the joint occurrence of negative equity and a life event like unemployment outperforms a frictionless option theoretic default model based on this finding a structural partialequilibrium model with liquidity constraints and idiosyncratic unemployment shocks is presented to provide micro foundations for the double trigger hypothesis in this model borrowers with negative equity are more likely to default when they are unemployed and have low liquid wealth the model explains most of the observed strong rise in mortgage default rates a policy implication of the model is that subsidizing homeowners can mitigate a mortgage crisis at a lower cost than bailing out lenders

spring cleaning rural water impacts valuation and property rights institutions the brief summarizes the spring cleaning rural water impacts valuation and property rights institutions the first two rounds of spring protection occurred in january april 2005 and august november 2005 the author measure health impacts of spring protection an investment that improves source water quality the author also estimate households valuation of spring protection and simulate the welfare impacts of alternatives to the current system of common property rights in water which limits incentives for private investment spring infrastructure investments reduce fecal contamination by 66 percent but household water quality improves less due to recontamination child diarrhea falls by one quarter travel cost based revealed preference estimates of households valuations are much smaller than both stated preference valuations and health planners valuations and are consistent with models in which the demand for health is highly income elastic the author estimate that private property norms would generate little additional investment while imposing large static costs due to above marginal cost pricing private property will function better at higher income levels or underwater scarcity and alternative institutions could yield pareto improvements

house price expectations alternative mortgage products and default rapid house price depreciation and rising unemployment were the main drivers of the huge increase in mortgage default during the downturn years of 2007 to 2010 however mortgage default was also partly driven by an increased reliance on alternative mortgage products such as pay option arms and interest only mortgages which allow the borrower to defer principal amortization the goal of this paper is to better understand the forces that spurred use of alternative mortgages during the housing boom and the resulting impact on default patterns relying on a unifying conceptual framework to guide the empirical work the conceptual framework allows borrowers to choose the extent of mortgage backloading the postponement of loan repayment through various mechanisms that constitutes a main feature of alternative mortgages the model shows that when future house price expectations become more favorable reducing default concerns mortgage choices shift toward alternative contracts this prediction is confirmed by empirical evidence showing that an increase in past house price appreciation which captures more favorable expectations for the future raises the market share of alternative mortgages in addition using a proportional hazard default model the paper tests the fundamental presumption that backloaded mortgages are more likely to default finding support for this view the views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the federal reserve bank of philadelphia or the federal reserve system this paper is available free of charge at http www philadelphiafed org research anddata publications working papers

a model of mortgage default in this paper we solve a dynamic model of households mortgage decisions incorporating labor income house price inflation and interest rate risk using a zero profit condition for mortgage lenders we solve for equilibrium mortgage rates given borrower characteristics and optimal decisions the model quantifies the effects of adjustable versus fixed mortgage rates loan to value ratios and mortgage affordability measures on mortgage premia and default mortgage selection by heterogeneous borrowers helps explain the higher default rates on adjustable rate mortgages during the recent u s housing downturn and the variation in mortgage premia with the level of interest rates

an analysis of mortgage contracting prepayment penalties and the due on sale clause the due on sale clause contained in most conventional home mortgage contracts is equivalent to a prepayment penalty equal to the difference between the face value and market value of the loan we analyze a bilateral game with asymmetric information and show that the bank demands the full penalty unless the market value of the loan is sufficiently low in that case the bank demands a prepayment penalty which is independent of the market value of the loan in order to induce additional prepayments we also demonstrate by a risk sharing argument that the due on sale clause is optimal in some settings even though it eliminates some beneficial home sales almost all conventional fixed rate home mortgage contracts written in the last decade contain a due on sale clause which gives the lender the contractual right to declare the total indebtedness due immediately if the mortgaged property is transferred as mortgage rates rise lending institutions suffer capital losses on fixed rate mortgage loans while borrowers earn capital gains equal to the difference between the face value and market value of their loans the due onsale clause gives the lending institution the right to demand the borrower s capital gain as a prepayment penalty in order to increase the probability of prepayment it can be optimal for the bank to accept a partial settlement in this paper we analyze the bank s strategy for setting the prepayment penalty it demands under the due on sale clause and examine the optimality of the clause the model we develop also applies to other types of prepayment penalties i e loan covenants which require payment of a premium over market value in order to extinguish

an analysis of cooperative research and development i analyze the effects of cooperative research whereby member firms agree to share the costs andfruits of a research project before they undertake it in this model industrywide agreements tend to have socially beneficial effects when the degree ofproduct market competition is low when there are r d spillovers in the absence of cooperation when a high degree of sharing is technologically feasible and when the agreement concerns basic research rather than development activities i show that a royalty free cross licensing agreement among any number offirms lowers the equilibrium level of innovation even though it increases the efficiency of r d through sharing

selection on observed and unobserved variables assessing the effectiveness of catholic schools in this paper we measure the effect of catholic high school attendance on educational attainment and test scores because we do not have a good instrumental variable for catholic school attendance we develop new estimation methods based on the idea that the amount of selection on the observed explanatory variables in a model provides a guide to the amount of selection on the unobservables we also propose an informal way to assess selectivity bias based on measuring the ratio of selection on unobservables to selection on observables that would be required if one is to attribute the entire effect of catholic school attendance to selection bias we use our methods to estimate the effect of attending a catholic high school on a variety of outcomes our main conclusion is that catholic high schools substantially increase the probability of graduating from high school and more tentatively attending college we find little evidence of an effect on test scores

the rise and fall of the arm an econometric analysis of mortgage choice this paper estimates an empirical model of the choice between adjustable and fixe d rate mortgages using a large national database compiled by the nat ional association of realtors the explanatory variables in the probi t choice equation include borrower characteristics regional dummies the frm rate and the frm arm rate differential since the intrerest rate on the mortgage not chosen is unobserved this rate must be est imated in a way that eliminates selectivity bias simulation of the e stimated choice equation provides insight into the origin of the arm revolution copyright 1988 by mit press

adverse selection in a model of real estate lending we provide a rationale for the presence of points in mortgage loan contracts our analysis builds on two key features first insurance markets are unavailable for labor income second the due on sale clause allows banks to offer loan contracts which partially insure against fluctuations in labor income if explicit prepayment penalties are prohibited by law points serve effectively as prepayment penalties we also examine environments where such penalties are not prohibited and show that points will be used if interest rates cannot depend on the size of the loan conventional home mortgage contracts contain a vast array of contingent clauses the most controversial of these is the due on sale clause that gives the lender the contractual right to declare the loan fully payable if all or part of the mortgaged property is sold dunn and spatt 1985 argue that the due on sale clause can provide insurance to the borrower they consider an environment where individuals face uninsurable risk in their income if incomes are high when borrowers move they will prefer a contract which imposes a prepayment penalty when they sell their property in return for a subsidy perhaps in the form of lower interest rates when they stay dunn and spatt characterize the optimal contract when the income of borrowers is unobservable to the lender however all borrowers are ex ante identical in this paper we examine a market where individuals differ in the riskiness of their potential gains from selling their property if this information is private to the borrower the kind of insurance arrangement described above must be modified to deal with the obvious selection problems that arise any lender must therefore ensure that any insurance contract offered to individuals with riskier income streams does not offer so much insurance at such a favorable price that individuals with less risky income also accept the same contract the classic analysis of this type of problem is by rothschild and stiglitz 1976 and our analysis follows theirs in order to focus attention on the nature of the adverse selection problem we assume two types of individuals both types have the same expected income stream for simplicity we assume that type i individuals do not

labor income housing prices and homeownership abstract this paper tests the intuition that households whose incomes covary relatively strongly with housing prices should own relatively little housing among us households a one standard deviation in covariance between income and home prices is associated with a decrease of approximately 7500 in the value of owner occupied housing this result arises in the presence of controls for the level and distribution of home prices the generally positive correlations between income and home prices suggests that households enter financial markets with a greater exposure to risk than is typically modeled

incentives information and efficiency in the uk mortgage market this paper analyses the choices made by households in the uk about mortgages it considers whether there might be forms of market failure that prevent the structure of mortgage debt better reflecting the underlying preferences of households uk households lie at one end of a spectrum of the degree of uncertainty over the nominal payments due on mortgage debt there are several different hypotheses for the type of mortgages households choose some are consistent with an efficient market others not the paper looks at alternative explanations for the behaviour of uk households and assesses which are consistent with the evidence when comparing the uk mortgage market with those of other developed economies two striking facts stand out first the stock of mortgage debt in the uk is large both absolutely and relative to the size of the economy second an unusually high proportion of that mortgage debt is at interest rates that are either variable or will shortly become variable figure 1 shows that at the end of 2002 the stock of mortgage debt in the uk was close to 70 of gdp at that time only denmark and the netherlands amongst developed economies had a larger stock of mortgage debt relative to gdp by the middle of 2004 the uk had overtaken denmark figure 2 shows that at the end of 2003 around 75 of the stock of mortgage debt was at variable interest rates although 25 of the stock was at fixed rate the overwhelming proportion of fixed rate mortgages have the interest rate set only for a few years figure 3 which focuses on the flow of new mortgage lending shows that although there have been times in recent years when 30 40 of the flow of new mortgage lending has been at a fixed rate no more than 4 of new mortgages have had the rate set for more than five years figure 4 shows that the uk is at one end of a spectrum in terms of the degree to which interest rates on mortgages are variable all of this means that the uk household sector faces a degree of uncertainty about the nominal profile of mortgage payments which is significantly greater than in almost any other country none of these observations in themselves show that there are failures in the structure of the uk mortgage market but they do prompt a series of fundamental economic questions why is it that uk households seem far more willing to take on uncertainty about the profile of repayments on mortgages than in other countries what might the contribution of the dominance of variable rate mortgages have been to the unusually though not uniquely high degree of variability in house prices in the uk are uk households taking account of the risk and return characteristics of various types of mortgage contracts in making choices what are the incentives of lenders and financial advisers in the uk mortgage market are there problems in the capital markets that prevent the

spatial lock in do falling house prices constrain residential mobility abstract falling house prices have caused numerous homeowners to suffer capital losses those with little home equity may be prevented from moving because of imperfections in housing finance markets the proceeds from the sale of their home may be insufficient to repay their mortgage and provide a down payment on a new home a data set of mortgages is used to examine the magnitude of these constraints estimates show that average mobility would have been 24 higher after 3 years had house prices not declined and after 4 years it would have been 33 higher among those with high initial loan to value ratios the differences are even greater

site selection bias in program evaluation site selection bias can occur when the probability that a program is adopted or evaluated is correlated with its impacts i test for site selection bias in the context of the opower energy conservation programs using 111 randomized control trials involving 8 6 million households across the united states predictions based on rich microdata from the first 10 replications substantially overstate efficacy in the next 101 sites several mechanisms caused this positive selection for example utilities in more environmentalist areas are more likely to adopt the program and their customers are more responsive to the treatment also because utilities initially target treatment at higher usage consumer subpopulations efficacy drops as the program is later expanded the results illustrate how program evaluations can still give systematically biased out of sample predictions even after many replications jel codes c93 d12 l94 o12 q41

choosing between fixed and adjustable rate mortgages note introduction in recent years mortgage borrowers have been given a wide variety of financing methods from which to choose e g guttentag 1983 barnett and mckenzie 1984 examples include assumptions adjustable rates shared appreciation growing equity and numerous others by far the dominant two have been the standard fixed rate and the adjustable rate mortgage beginning with regulation changes in 1979 adjustable rate mortgage lending at first was fairly restricted but with the major deregulation change in 1981 the types of adjustable rate mortgages have proliferated 2 now lenders have the flexibility to use numerous indexes including inflation and disposable income indexes make interest rate changes independent of payment changes and allow negative amortization the purpose of this paper is to examine the choice between fixed and adjustable rate mortgages 3 two views have dominated the theoretical literature one that emphasizes the irrelevance of borrower characteristics in the mortgage choice decision given the prices and terms of the contract and one that focuses on the potential impact of borrower characteristics assuming asymmetric information 4 this paper is the first to examine empirically the impact of pricing and borrower characteristics on the choice of mortgage contract

regional differences in mortgage demand and mortgage instrument choice in the uk koblyakova a hutchison n and tiwari p regional differences in mortgage demand and mortgage instrument choice in the uk regional studies this paper presents empirical evidence of regional variations in mortgage choice decisions within the uk s mortgage sector utilizing british household panel survey bhps data for the years 2001 2007 and 2008 the paper suggests that a household s decision to choose a variable rate mortgage is more likely to occur in areas with lower incomes and affordability rates such as northern england scotland and wales since variable rate mortgages are more sensitive to income and monetary policy shocks the disproportional distribution of variable contracts within the mortgage sector may have a differential impact on the regions

supply driven mortgage choice variable mortgage contracts dominate the uk mortgage market the dominance of the variable rate mortgage contracts has important consequences for the transmission mechanism of monetary policy decisions and systemic risks this raises an obvious concern that a mortgage market such as that in the uk where the major proportion of mortgage debt is either at a variable or fixed for less than two years rate is vulnerable to alterations in the interest rate regime theoretically mortgage choice is determined by demand and supply factors so far most of the existing literature has focused on the demand side perspective and what is limited is consideration of supply side factors in empirical investigation on mortgage choice decisions this paper uniquely explores whether supply side factors may partially explain observed ex post mortgage type decisions empirical results detect that lenders profit motives and mortgage funding pricing issues may have assisted in preferences toward variable rate contracts sec

alternative mortgage instruments the tilt problem and consumer welfare mortgage instrument in the united states for the last 50 years and for much of this period it has performed well however during periods of high and volatile rates of inflation the sfpm suffers from severe weaknesses 1 foremost among these problems from the standpoint of the borrower is the tilt in the stream of real mortgage payments toward the initial years of the mortgage for consumers unconstrained by capital market imperfections this tilt is unimportant however a consumer is typically unable to borrow against expected higher future income or against the nominal capital gains that accrue to the owner of a house over the life of the mortgage in addition common practices of mortgage lenders often limit mortgage payments to some fraction of income at the time of purchase together these liquidity constraints create a mismatch between the time se quence of mortgage payments and income a mismatch that reduces the number of borrowers who qualify for financing and that limits the value of the house purchased by those who do obtain financing 2 in an attempt to reduce the problems created by this mismatch a variety of alternative mortgage instruments amis has been suggested three of the most important are the graduated payment mortgage gpm the shared appreciation mortgage sam and the price level adjusted mortgage plam 3 with the gpm mortgage payments rise at some specified rate during a portion of the mortgage life the sam enables the lender to share in the appreciation of the university of colorado boulder and syracuse university respectively this paper was writ ten while the first author was at syracuse university funding for the research was shared by the office of the comptroller of the currency the federal horne loan bank board and the department of housing and urban development mary anne beeman served as research assistant and the manu

consumption and risk sharing over the life cycle a striking feature of u s data on income and consumption is that inequality increases with age this paper asks if individual specific earnings risk can provide a coherent explanation we find that it can we construct an overlapping generations general equilibrium model in which households face uninsurable earnings shocks over the course of their lifetimes earnings inequality is exogenous and is calibrated to match data from the u s panel study on income dynamics consumption inequality is endogenous and matches well data from the u s consumer expenditure survey the total risk households face is decomposed into that realized before entering the labor market and that realized throughout the working years in welfare terms the latter is found to be more important than the former

when can government subsidize research joint ventures politics economics and limits to research joint ventures rjv s between private firms and government bureaus play a central position in the clinton administration s r d strategy to promote productivity and competitiveness of american firms the government s role in the programs varies from subsidizing private projects to providing the expertise and facilities of the federal research laboratories a substantial literature now exists that investigates the economic efficiency of private rjv s the purpose of this paper is to expand the debate to consider the conditions under which the government will choose to subsidize rjv s and whether these conditions are likely to yield desirable economic results it is useful to characterize the government as a consortium member who differs from the private venturers in several critical ways first these programs are based on the presumption that private firms are far better than government at choosing projects with commercial merit even in those programs where the government contributes scientists and facilities industry partners usually have primary responsibility for initiating projects second the objective function of the government differs from industry members indeed it is in part because government actors have goals other than competitiveness that these programs are intended to keep government bureaucrats at arm s length from technical choices finally the financial contribution of the government is usually a set share of the total bill introducing this form of subsidy changes the research investment strategies employed by a joint venture and the incentives facing firms either to participate in a consortium or to oppose its establishment the basic premise of this analysis is that a subsidized joint venture will persist only when all members including the government are satisfied a viable policy depends on economic consequences to member firms and to the extent that they have access to policy making to nonmember firms and consumers furthermore some of the relevant consequences follow predictably from market and technology characteristics

what does the term structure tell us about future inflation abstract this empirical analysis indicates that for maturities of six months or less the term structure of nominal interest rates provides almost no information about the future path of inflation but does provide information about the term structure of real interest rates however as maturities lengthen to nine and twelve months the nominal term structure begins to contain information about future inflation but ceases to provide information about the real term structure these results are explained by differences in the relative variability of expected future inflation changes and real term structure slopes at different points in the term structure

energy conservation nudges and environmentalist ideology evidence from a randomized residential electricity field experiment nudges are being widely promoted to encourage energy conservation we show that while the electricity conservation nudge of providing feedback to households on own and peers home electricity usage works with liberals it can backfire with conservatives our regression estimates predict that a democratic household that pays for electricity from renewable sources that donates to environmental groups and that lives in a liberal neighborhood reduces its consumption by 3 percent in response to this nudge a republican household that does not pay for electricity from renewable sources and that does not donate to environmental groups increases its consumption by 1 percent

distributional impacts of the self sufficiency project a large literature has been concerned with the impacts of recent welfare reforms on income earnings transfers and labor force attachment while one strand of this literature relies on observational studies conducted with large survey sample data sets a second makes use of data generated by experimental evaluations of changes to means tested programs much of the overall literature has focused on mean impacts in this paper we use random assignment experimental data from canada s self sufficiency project ssp to look at impacts of this unique reform on the distributions of income earnings and transfers ssp offered members of the treatment group a generous subsidy for working full time quantile treatment effect qte estimates show there was considerable heterogeneity in the impacts of ssp on the distributions of earnings transfers and total income this heterogeneity would be missed by looking only at average treatment effects moreover these heterogeneous impacts are consistent with the predictions of labor supply theory during the period when the subsidy is available the ssp impact on the earnings distribution is zero for the bottom half of the distribution the quantiles of the ssp earnings distribution are higher for much of the upper third of the distribution except at the very top where the quantiles of the earnings distribution are the same under either program or possibly lower under ssp further during the period when ssp receipt was possible the impacts on the quantiles of the distributions of transfer payments income assistance plus the subsidy and total income earnings plus transfers are also different at different points of the distribution in particular positive impacts on the quantiles of the transfer distribution are concentrated at the lower end of the transfer distribution while positive impacts on the quantiles of the income distribution are concentrated in the upper end of the income distribution impacts of ssp on these distributions were essentially zero after the subsidy was no longer available

information provision and consumer behavior a natural experiment in billing frequency abstract in this study i estimate a causal effect of increased billing frequency on consumer behavior i exploit a natural experiment in which residential water customers switched exogenously from bimonthly to monthly billing customers increase consumption by 3 5 5 in response to more frequent information this result is reconciled in models of price and quantity uncertainty where increases in billing frequency reduce the distortion in consumer perceptions using treatment effects as sufficient statistics i calculate consumer welfare gains equivalent to 0 5 1 of annual water expenditures heterogeneous treatment effects suggest increases in outdoor water use

fixed rate or index linked mortgages from the borrower s point of view a note when will borrowers choose fixed rate mortgages and when will they prefer index linked mortgages baesel and biger bb 1 proposed a model that answers this question according to the bb model a borrower s preference depends on the difference in interest rates between the fixed and index linked mortgages and on the covariance between the borrower s labor income and the rate of inflation the purpose of this note is to propose a more complete model of borrower preferences the novelty of the model lies in the inclusion of the value of the house net of mortgage obligation in the terminal wealth of the borrower this inclusion leads to differences between this model and the bb model in the identification of the cases where borrowers will prefer fixed or index linked mortgages

high tech r d subsidies estimating the effects of sematech abstract sparked by concerns about their shrinking market share 14 leading u s semiconductor producers with the financial assistance of the u s government in the form of 100 million in annual subsidies formed a joint r d consortium sematech in 1987 using compustat data on all u s semiconductor firms we estimate the effects of sematech on members r d spending profitability investment and productivity in so doing we examine two hypotheses the commitment hypothesis that sematech obligates member firms to spend more on high spillover r d and the sharing hypothesis that sematech reduces duplication of member r d spending whereas the commitment hypothesis provides a rationale for the government subsidies the sharing hypothesis does not we find that sematech induced members to cut their overall r d spending on the order of 300 million per year providing support for the sharing hypothesis