outcome based accountability theory and evidence abstract a firm s payoffs can often depend on whether it exceeds a threshold of performance in a principal agent setting we demonstrate that the optimal contract induces efficient effort by basing firing decisions solely on whether the agent was successful even though the absolute level of performance is more informative we test the predictions of our model using thirty seasons of nfl data we find that a coach is 6 percentage points more likely to be fired after a close loss beyond this the margin of victory has no significant impact on firing probabilities despite being more informative about future success also consistent with the predictions of our model coaches maximize team effort by playing their best players when doing so has the largest impact on the probability of winning

the information content of annual earnings releases a trading volume approach this paper reports the results of an empirical examination of the relations between the volume of securities traded the magnitude of surprises in annual earnings announcements and firm size although early trading volume studies e g beaver 1968 kiger 1972 and foster 1973 replicated basic information content studies with findings similar to those based on security prices we should not expect that security price and trading volume research will continue to yield identical results when more refined hypotheses are tested trading volume reflects investors activity by summing all market trades whereas security prices reflect an aggregation or averaging of investors beliefs as a result we will on occasion observe differences between price and volume reactions to earnings announcements as did morse 1981 this study extends the recent trend toward tests of more refined hypotheses by using a larger sample to examine the associations between unexpected earnings firm size and trading volume and testing whether such associations can be generalized across fiscal year end dates and stock exchange listing my results show a continuous positive relationship between trading

analysts forecasts as proxies for investor beliefs in empirical research abstract we analyze how analysts forecasts relate to investor beliefs and describe the implications of these relations for price and volume reactions to earnings surprises we show that dispersion among forecasts does not fully capture investor uncertainty we also show how the relations between market reactions and forecast properties differ under the alternative assumptions of exogenous and endogenous private information acquisition finally the analysis suggests refined tests for volume reactions at the time of an announcement our results indicate that the model is useful for understanding and interpreting empirical work and developing empirical tests of market reactions to announcements

volatility spread and stock market response to earnings announcements abstract using a broad sample of earnings announcements we find a monotonic increase in the spread between call and put implied volatilities as it gets closer to the earnings announcement date the steady build up of volatility spread in the days leading up to the announcement date coupled with the predictive power of cumulative abnormal implied volatility spread on subsequent announcement returns suggests that informed traders are the driving force behind the option market activities prior to earnings announcements such informed trading as proxied by the abnormal implied volatility spread increases rather than decreases the stock market response to earnings announcements after controlling for an array of firm and announcement characteristics this effect is most pronounced when the pre earnings option trading volume is heightened overall our findings lend strong support to the notion that informed options trading immediately before earnings announcements helps alleviate the stock market under reaction to earnings announcements and make it closer to a complete response

a theory of trading volume a theory of trading volume is developed based on assumptions that market agents frequently revise their demand prices and randomly encounter potential trading partners the model describes two distinct ways informational events affect trading volume one is consistent with conjectures made by empirical researchers that investor disagreement leads to increased trading but the observation of abnormal trading volume does not necessarily imply disagreement and volume can increase even if investors interpret the information identically if they also have had divergent prior expectations simulation tests support the model and are used to contrast the random pairing environment with costless market clearing volume is lower in the costly market and volume increases caused by an informational event persist after the event period this is consistent with existing empirical evidence and suggests that markets do not immediately clear all orders or that investors have demands to recontract

effects of horizontal consolidation under bilateral imperfect competition between processors and retailers this article considers bilateral imperfect competition between processors and retailers to estimate the trade off between market power and cost efficiency the model is based on pricing rules from a firm s profit maximization and nests both oligopoly and oligopsony models an empirical analysis for us beef processors and retailers suggests that processors tend to exercise oligopsony market power in procuring cattle but they are unlikely to exercise market power on retailers when retailers and processors are considered as one integrated sector efficiency effects from the increased concentration in the us beef packing industry are slightly larger than market power effects when processors market power is considered separately from retailers market power the difference between cost saving and market power effects becomes greater the cost elasticity estimate 0 99 indicates that a further merger would result in little economies of scale in the future therefore although we find that efficiency effect

does anticipated information impose a cost on risk averse investors a test of the hirshleifer effect this paper theoretically and empirically investigates how the risk of future adverse price changes created by the anticipated arrival of information influences risk averse investors trading decisions in institutionally imperfect capital markets specifically i examine how the selling activity of individual investors immediately following an earnings announcement is influenced by the tradeoff between risk sharing benefits of immediate trade and explicit transaction costs imposed on such trades consistent with my theoretically derived predictions i find that investors current trading decisions are less sensitive to the incremental transaction costs created by short term capital gains taxes on trading profits as both the duration and intensity of the risk of future adverse price changes increase this evidence is consistent with an incremental cost to investors that results from the revelation of precise information which is commonly referred to as the hirshleifer effect

market implication of predisc10sure information size and exchange effects differential market reactions to earnings announcements can inter alia be ascribed to the extent to which such announcements entail surprise i e unexpected information the greater the predisclosure information the less the surprise element in earnings announcements since there is no direct measure of predisclosure information the literature has utilized two different proxies i firm size the size effect atiase 1980 1985 and ii exchange listing the exchange effect grant 1980 atiase 1980 argues that private predisclosure information production and dissemination are an increasing function of firm size capitalization if so the amount of unexpected information conveyed to the market by actual earnings reports should be inversely related to firm size other things equal empirical evidence in atiase 1985 supports this hypothesis grant 1980 found that for otc firms the average price revaluation associated with annual earnings announcements is significantly higher in the report week relative to both nonannouncement

predisclosure information firm capitalization and security price behavior around earnings announcements several studies on the relationship between earnings reports and security price behavior provide evidence suggesting that a significant portion of the information revealed through earnings reports is reflected in security prices prior to the report month e g ball and brown 1968 and brown and kennelly 1972 this has been attributed at least partly to the existence of other more timely sources of information which allow market agents to forecast earnings prior to their release the evidence above reflects an average finding across all firms one question of interest is whether there are significant systematic crosssectional differences in the security price reactions to earnings announcements of firms which are associated with specific firm characteristics that lead to differential amounts of predisclosure information this study focuses on firm size capitalization as one such characteristic a firm

estimating functional forms in cost prices abstract klaus conrad 1983 developed the cost price approach based upon the notion of partially fixed factor proportions as an alternative to the traditional neoclassical method of modeling cost and production functions he showed that a simplified version of his model could be used to estimate a cobb douglas cost function in cost prices we have been able to estimate the full form of conrad s proposed model and extend his technique to the ces and generalized leontief cost functions we also illustrate how to model technical change in cost prices and in cost shares

an analysis of the use of accounting and market measures of performance in executive compensation contracts prior research has provided useful insights into the structure of compensation plans and their incentive effects however one important limitation of these studies is the virtual absence of any cross sectional analyses of the attributes of compensation contracts 2 this absence is related in part to the problems associated with controlling for other factors that affect compensation that is compensation contracts are

empirical research on ceo turnover and firm performance a discussion abstract engel hayes wang and farrell whidbee provide new evidence on how firms weight alternative performance measures in making ceo retention and replacement decisions while their results are statistically significant firm performance continues to explain very little of the variation in ceo turnover i argue we have probably reached a point of diminishing returns in estimating logit models that focus on the relation between ceo turnover and firm performance measures we will have to consider other less explored issues to increase our understanding of ceo turnovers and replacements analyzing age related issues is one example

disagreement and learning dynamic patterns of trade we study volume dynamics when there are disagreements among investors for that purpose we develop a dynamic model in which differences in the interpretation of public information lead to trade we obtain a simple linear equilibrium in closed form in which risk averse agents take into account future trading opportunities when solving for their optimal portfolio allocation using this framework we then study what restrictions on the disagreement process are needed to generate empirically observed patterns in volume and prices we show that having infrequent but major disagreements leads to autocorrelation in volume and correlation between volume and absolute price changes when agents disagree on past news but agree on the interpretation of current news there is learning and the convergence of agents opinions leads to trade

the poverty of sustainability rescuing economics from platitudes the idea of sustainability has become confused and incoherent if sustainability is to regain a plausible pertinence to economic policy it must be understood to encompass two realms 1 human interaction with nature and 2 human interaction with others with respect to their interaction with nature the on going redefinition of the purposes of nature requires that institutions norms rules property regimes undergo constant evolution so that human action conduces to nondestructive action caution in the social realm is the greatest risk to environmental sustainability

impact of firm performance expectations on ceo turnover and replacement decisions abstract our analysis suggests that boards focus on deviation from expected performance rather than performance alone in making the ceo turnover decision especially when there is agreement less dispersion among analysts about the firm s earnings forecast or there are a large number of analysts following the firm in addition our results suggest that boards are more likely to appoint a ceo that will change firm policies and strategies i e an outsider when forecasted 5 year eps growth is low and there is greater uncertainty more dispersion among analysts about the firm s long term forecasts

the information content of losses abstract this study hypothesizes that because shareholders have a liquidation option losses are not expected to perpetuate they are thus less informative than profits about the firm s future prospects the results are consistent with the hypothesis they also show that the documented increase in the earnings response coefficent as the cumulation period increases appears to be due exclusively to the effect of losses the liquidation option effect extends to profitable cases where earnings are low enough to make the option attractive alternating explanations for the low informativeness of losses such as mean reversal of earnings are not supported by the tests

energy tax and competition in energy efficiency the case of consumer durables the purpose of this paper is to analyze the role of anenergy tax on technical improvements and on prices ofconsumer durables induced by strategic competition inenergy efficiency if the gasoline tax is raised thisdoes in principle not affect the producers of carsbecause the motorist pays for it in terms of a highercost of using the car this however affects the unitsales of car producers because of substitution towardsother modes of transportation a second element ofreaction to energy price variation is an indirect oneand relates to the effect of energy prices ontechnology competition forces car producers todevelop more energy efficient cars in order to reducethe cost of using a car this indirect effect canpartly offset the direct effect of higher energyprices on demand if it is profitable for theautomobile industry to engineer more energy efficientequipment we will analyze the impact of an energy taxon energy efficiency and on the price of a durablegood this will be done within the framework of aduopoly competing in prices and in the energyefficiency of its products the government chooses awelfare maximizing energy tax as an incentive toinnovate then we will analyze a strategic two stagedecision process in which the duopolists first decideabout energy efficiency and then compete in prices

cost prices and partially fixed factor proportions in energy substitution abstract the objective of this paper is to propose a new approach which combines the approaches to neoclassical substitutability and fixed factor proportions this is done by separating the quantity of an input in a committed part linked to the other inputs and in an uncommitted part which is free for substitution on the cost side this implies that the effective price of an input consists of the own price and of weighted prices of the other inputs where the weights determine the order of magnitude of linkage of the other inputs to one unit of this input a cost function with these cost prices as arguments has been employed and elasticities of prices and substitution have been estimated with u s data originally used by berndt and wood

ceo optimism and forced turnover abstract we show theoretically that optimism can lead a risk averse chief executive officer ceo to choose the first best investment level that maximizes shareholder value optimism below above the interior optimum leads the ceo to underinvest overinvest hence if boards of directors act in the interests of shareholders ceos with relatively low or high optimism face a higher probability of forced turnover than moderately optimistic ceos face using a large sample of turnovers we find strong empirical support for this prediction the results are consistent with the view that there is an interior optimum level of managerial optimism that maximizes firm value

the rewards to meeting or beating earnings expectations abstract this paper finds that firms that meet or beat current analysts earnings expectations mbe enjoy a higher return over the quarter than firms with similar quarterly earnings forecast errors that fail to meet these expectations further such a premium to mbe although somewhat smaller exists in the cases where mbe is likely to have been achieved through earnings or expectations management the findings also indicate that the premium to mbe is a leading indicator of future performance this premium and its predictive ability are only marginally affected by whether the mbe is genuine or the result of earnings or expectations management

the control of co2 emissions and its economic impact an age model for a german state since it is believed that co2 is responsible for 55 of the greenhouse effect a co2 levy is now under consideration in several countries for an assessment of the macroeconomic implications of an integrated energy and environmental policy we employ an applied general equilibrium model age since all sectors of an economy and all private households contribute to co2 emission our model is a temporary equilibrium model with capacity extension under adjustment costs and with abatement activities for so2 and nox emissions

trading volume reactions to annual accounting earnings announcements the incremental role of predisclosure information asymmetry abstract this study provides empirical evidence regarding the effect of annual accounting earnings announcements on investors trading behavior we find that the magnitude of trading volume reaction is an increasing function of both the magnitude of the associated price reaction and the level of predisclosure information asymmetry these results are consistent with kim and verrecchia s 1991a theoretical trading volume proposition

institutional ownership differential predisclosure precision and trading volume at announcement dates abstract this study examines the relation between ownership structure as revealed by the percentage of outstanding shares held by institutional investors and trading volume at earnings announcement dates we find that volume response as a function of institutional ownership is quadratic with the quadratic curve that reaches a maximum at around 50 institutional ownership when risk tolerances are identical across investor types such a relation is consistent with kim and verrecchia s 1991a proposition that trading volume response to public announcements increases with the level of cross investor variation in precision of private predisclosure information

information value and investor wealth the case of earnings announcements this paper empirically investigates the relation between investor wealth and the value of annual and quarterly earnings announcements as implied by 1 the behavior of mean stock trade transaction sizes at announcement dates and 2 transaction size stratified trading activity in postannouncement time periods announcement period mean transaction sizes are found to exceed expected mean transactions sizes estimated from trading activity occurring in nonannouncement periods this result is attributed to a greater relative trading response to earnings announcements by wealthier investors consistent with ohlson s 1975 proposition that information value increases with investor wealth in a security market setting further evidence of a positive relation between value and wealth is found when postearnings announcement stock transactions are stratified by share size into three strata where the first stratum small stratum is transactions of 100 and 200 shares the second stratum large stratum is transactions of 300 to 900 shares and the third stratum institutional

price and trading volume reaction surrounding earnings announcements a closer examination the process of information dissemination and interpretation in securities markets is very complex and mostly unobservable while changes in prices and the amount of trading that takes place at the market level provide evidence of information processing verrecchia 1981 demonstrated that these are not sufficient to describe completely the dissemination of information and its interpretation by investors a descriptive study of price changes and trading volume however may still provide some insights into how investors react to information this paper is an empirical investigation of price changes and trading volume during the days surrounding the announcement of quarterly and annual earnings in the wall street journal wsj in the original paper investigating trading volume and price changes surrounding earnings announcements beaver 1968 was primarily concerned with whether the annual earnings announcement had information content i e led to changes in investors assessments of the probability distribution of future returns if there were any significant price changes and or trading volume during the week of the announcement then the annual earnings announcement was assumed to have had

informational efficiency and information subsets this paper proposes a new definition of the efficient markets hypothesis with respect to information which is more formal and precise than those of rubinstein 13 fama 4 jensen 6 and beaver 1 and which fits well as a framework for interpreting the many tests of the efficient markets hypothesis in the literature security markets are here considered efficient with respect to information set if and only if revealing to all agents would change neither equilibrium prices nor portfolios in addition to other desirable features this definition has the subset property efficiency with respect to implies efficiency with respect to any subset of

the match between ceo and firm we investigate the role of job match heterogeneity in the ceo labor market we document a high percentage of ceo turnovers in the early years of tenure as illustrated by the hazard that increases until the fifth year of ceo tenure and then decreases evidence suggests that a good match is more likely if the new ceo performs better than the previous ceo the best matches tend to occur when inside outside ceos follow previous ceos who quit are dismissed evidence consistent with match theory in the ceo labor market suggests factors that influence the likelihood of observing a good match

estimating functional forms in cost prices abstract olson and shieh extended the cost price approach proposed by conrad and estimated systems of factor share equations in cost prices with a more theoretical consistent specification of technical change the authors concluded that the results encouraged additional research based on the cost price approach this paper questions empirical results for one of the models reported by olson and shieh empirical results for an alternative specification of the model are also presented

has the information content of quarterly earnings announcements declined in the past three decades this paper examines changes in the information content of earnings over the past three decades using the two metrics from beaver 1968 abnormal trading volume and abnormal return volatility we find no evidence of a decline in the information content of earnings announcements over the past three decades as measured by both abnormal trading volume and return volatility around quarterly earnings announcements if anything our results suggest an increase over time in the informativeness of quarterly earnings announcements variables reflecting changes in firm specific factors account for a portion of the observed increase

ceo stock option awards and the timing of corporate voluntary disclosures abstract we investigate whether ceos manage the timing of their voluntary disclosures around stock option awards we conjecture that ceos manage investors expectations around award dates by delaying good news and rushing forward bad news for a sample of 2 039 ceo option awards by 572 firms with fixed award schedules we document changes in share prices and analyst earnings forecasts around option awards that are consistent with our conjecture we also provide more direct evidence based on management earnings forecasts issued prior to award dates our findings suggest that ceos make opportunistic voluntary disclosure decisions that maximize their stock option compensation

endogenously chosen boards of directors and their monitoring of the ceo author s hermalin benjamin e abstract this paper develops a model in which the effectiveness of a board s monitoring of the ceo depends on the board s independence the independence of new directors is determined through negotiations implicit or explicit between the existing directors and the ceo the ceo s bargaining position and thus influence over the board selection process depends on an updated estimate of the ceo s ability based on prior performance many empirical findings about board structure and performance arise as equilibrium phenomena in this model we also explore the implications of this model for proposed regulations of corporate governance structures please contact the program in law and economics at boalt hall school of law uc berkeley berkeley ca 94720 for a copy of this paper

the relation between price changes and trading volume a survey this paper reviews previous and current research on the relation between price changes and trading volume in financial markets and makes four contributions first two empiri cal relations are established volume is positively related to the magnitude of the price change and in equity markets to the price change per se second previous theoretical research on the price volume relation is summarized and critiqued and major insights are emphasized third a simple model ofthe price volume relation is proposed that is consis tent with several seemingly unrelated or contradictory observations and fourth several directions for future research are identified

specification and estimation of nonseparable two stage technologies the leontief ces and the cobb douglas ces a two stage technology is a sequential production process that first uses pri mary inputs to produce intermediate inputs and then uses theintermediate inputs to produce final output in this paper the authors show that two stage technologies provide a general procedure for combining production functions or cost functions to obtain new specifications suitable for empirical production analysis they investigate two new cost functions for which the input demand systemssatisfy global regularity conditions in a wide range of nondegenerate cases using six data sets the authors estimate thesetwo input demand systems both with and without imposing global regularity conditions and find that one of them performs well copyright 1987 by university of chicago press

why don t we agree evidence from a social network of investors we study sources of investor disagreement using sentiment of investors from a social media investing platform combined with information on the users investment approaches e g technical fundamental we examine how much of overall disagreement is driven by different information sets versus differential interpretation of information by studying disagreement within and across investment approaches overall disagreement is evenly split between both sources of disagreement but within group disagreement is more tightly related to trading volume than cross group disagreement although both sources of disagreement are important our findings suggest that information differences are more important for trading than differences across market approaches

accounting earnings and top executive compensation abstract this paper investigates the role of accounting earnings in top executive compensation contracts it provides evidence in support of the hypothesis that earnings based incentives help shield executives from market wide factors in stock prices the paper demonstrates that earnings reflect firm specific changes in value but are less sensitive to market wide movements in equity values as a result the inclusion of earnings based performance measures in executive compensation contracts helps shield executives from fluctuations in firm value that are beyond their control the hypothesis is shown to explain cross sectional variation in the use of earnings based incentives

searching for sustainability the poverty of spontaneous order abstract traditional approaches to sustainability rely on models that depend upon judgments of welfare across future generations right prices and some sense as to what future persons will find giving of utility these models both accept the spontaneous order of market processes and rely on that order to derive optimal consumption paths into the future sustainability is however not a problem of divining optimal paths predicated upon right prices rather sustainability to be operational requires a prior constructed order predicated upon rights for future persons and duties for those now living who sit in a position as dictator over the settings and circumstances that will be passed on to future persons rights based approaches to sustainability do not rely upon unknowable preferences of future persons but rather upon an environmental regency in which those now living agree to preserve settings and circumstances for the future this reminds us that the issue of sustainability concerns not how much to preserve but what to preserve

additive general error models for production cost and derived demand or share systems many empirical studies of production specify a deterministic model of the firm derive the implied behavioral equations input demand or share system and then embed this system in a stochastic framework by tacking on linear error terms in contrast this paper proposes general error models gems in which the error specification is an integral part of the optimization model these models are the statistical embodiment of stigler s view that apparent observed inefficiencies reflect the investigator s ignorance of the true optimization problem additive gems are proposed and interpreted specification tests indicate that a translog additive gem is superior to the standard translog specification

new indices of money supply and the flexible laurent demand system the article begins by surveying the existing results on the new divisia monetary aggregates charts display the differences in behavior between the divisia aggregates and the federal reserve s official simple sum monetary aggregates the article then compares system wide fit for the simple sum and divisia monetary aggregates when used as data in the joint estimation of a system of demand equations the demand system is derived from a new laurent expansion approximation to the reciprocal indirect utility function the laurent expansion provides a better behaved remainder term than that of the more commonly used taylor series the results favor the divisia aggregates

industry competition earnings management and leader follower effects this article examines the impacts of industry competition on the leader follower effects in different earnings management activities the empirical results show that there are the leader follower e

entrenchment governance and the stock price reaction to sudden executive deaths abstract to study managerial entrenchment i use the stock price reaction to unexpected senior executive deaths if a highly effective manager dies unexpectedly the stock price reaction should be negative if however death removes an entrenched manager when the board would or could not the stock price reaction should be positive while individually age and tenure only weakly correlate with the stock price reaction to a sudden death the reaction is strongly positive 6 8 if 1 the executive s tenure exceeds 10 years and 2 abnormal stock returns over the last three years are negative

demand for durable and nondurable goods environmental policy and consumer welfare if a tax on energy affects the demand for a nondurable good the stock of a durable good and the proportion of the energy consumption per unit of service of the durable good an integrated approach for investigating consumer demand for durables and nondurables is required the purpose of this paper is to employ the concept of a variable expenditure function with quasi fixed durable goods as arguments in order to derive a demand system for nondurable goods in prices of the nondurables in the stocks of durables and in variable expenditure from the envelope condition desired stocks of durables can be calculated and investment demand for durables can be determined for an application we choose a variable expenditure function based on the almost ideal demand specification and evaluate alternative environmental policy measures using the equivalent variation for comparing the welfare effects