the welfare loss from unstable inflation abstract the calvo price setting mechanism produces relative price dispersion among firms while the rotemberg model is consistent with a symmetric equilibrium nonetheless both models imply the same welfare costs of inflation and the same prescriptions for welfare maximizing central banks

short term optimal wind power generation capacity in liberalized electricity markets mainly because of environmental concerns and fuel price uncertainties considerable amounts of wind based generation capacity are being added to some deregulated power systems the rapid wind development registered in some countries has essentially been driven by strong subsidizing programs since wind investments are commonly isolated from market signals installed wind capacity can be higher than optimal leading to distortions of the power prices with a consequent loss of social welfare in this work the influence of wind generation on power prices in the framework of a liberalized electricity market has been assessed by means of stochastic simulation techniques the developed methodology allows investigating the maximal wind capacity that would be profitably deployed if wind investments were subject to market conditions only for this purpose stochastic variables determining power prices are accurately modeled a test system resembling the size and characteristics of the german power system has been selected for this study the expected value of the optimal short term wind capacity is evaluated for a considerable number of random realizations of power prices the impact of dispersing the wind capacity over statistical independent wind sites has also been evaluated the simulation results reveal that fuel prices installation and financing costs of wind investments are very influential parameters on the maximal wind capacity that might be accommodated in a market based manner

wind power in the danish liberalised power market policy measures price impact and investor incentives wind power has a strong position at the danish electricity market mainly caused by high feed in tariffs in the 1990s investments in new wind power installations on land however have declined dramatically after the danish electricity market was liberalised in 1999 first the paper describes how policy measures directed towards wind power have been redesigned to match the liberalised market then we estimate the impact of the redesigned tariffs on the electricity prices finally we assess whether the new tariffs make an incentive to invest in wind power the paper concludes that the new tariffs not by itself make evidence for the actual danish recession in new wind power installations after the electricity reform the main causes could include a combination of problems in spatial planning high risk aversion of new wind turbine investors and perhaps more favourable support schemes in other countries

changes over time in multidimensional poverty methodology and results for 34 countries summary this paper sets out a systemic account of intertemporal changes in multidimensional poverty using the alkire foster adjusted headcount ratio and its consistent sub indices it uses three techniques to assess the pro poorness of multidimensional poverty reduction the analysis of changes in multidimensional poverty draws on the global multidimensional poverty index mpi and related destitution measure in 34 countries and 338 sub national regions covering 2 5 billion people for which there is a recent mpi estimation and comparable demographic and health survey dhs dataset across time first it assesses overall changes in poverty and its incidence and intensity and compares this with changes in 1 90 poverty next utilizing the property of subgroup decomposability it examines changes in the mpi and its consistent sub indices over time across urban rural regions sub national regions and ethnic groups the decomposition analysis identifies relevant national patterns including those in which the pace of poverty reduction is higher for the poorest subgroups finally the paper analyzes the dynamics of a strict subset of the poor who are identified as destitute using a more extreme deprivation cutoff vector and studies relative rates of reduction of destitution and poverty by country and region this extensive empirical analysis illustrates how to assess the extent and patterns of reduction of multidimensional poverty as well as whether it is inclusive or whether some people or groups are left behind naturally some further research questions emerge

modeling determinants of poverty in mauritania abstract this paper presents a brief descriptive summary of poverty in mauritania as revealed by household survey data for 1990 and then uses regression analysis to study the determinants of living standards and hence poverty the latter is conducted at the level of broadly defined socioeconomic groups using an econometric technique which also models the selection of households into socioeconomic groups household characteristics are used as explanatory variables including demographic education and sector specific variables by controlling for many factors multivariate analysis enables a clearer understanding of the nature and determinants of poverty than can be obtained from examination of summary poverty indices

macroeconometric equivalence microeconomic dissonance and the design of monetary policy abstract macroeconometric equivalence means that estimates of dsge models using first order approximations to equilibrium conditions fail to distinguish between alternative preference technology configurations microeconomic dissonance means that the underlying microeconomic differences between ostensibly equivalent models become important when optimal monetary policy is derived the relevance of these concepts is established by analysis of optimal monetary policy using a small scale new keynesian model microeconomic and financial datasets are promising tools with which to overcome the equivalence dissonance problem

macroeconomic policy and the salvadoran peace accords abstract we analyze the relationship between macroeconomic policies and the implementation of the peace agreement that ended civil war in el salvador we review recent stabilization and adjustment policies and identify potential impediments to sustained growth we observe that the agreement mandated thorough going democratization of political institutions but its socioeconomic reforms promised little more than excombatants reintegration into civilian life the poverty and inequality impelling the war were not addressed we analyze the political bargaining governing the agreement s uneven implementation and conclude that the macroeconomic policy environment of austerity rather than resource constraints per se impeded its timely implementation

a comparison of determinants of urban rural and farm poverty in costa rica abstract the lack of progress on reducing poverty in third world countries and its growth during the 1980s show that one of the fundamental goals of development has not been met addressing the renewed concern with poverty requires knowledge about the factors affecting poverty this paper uses logistic regression analysis to estimate the effects of variables on urban rural farm and nonfarm poverty among households in costa rica results show the complexity of the issue and imply policies to expand education through the secondary level to create more opportunities for rural off farm employ

monetary policy and exchange rate volatility in a small open economy we lay out a small open economy version of the calvo sticky price model and show how the equilibrium dynamics can be reduced to a simple representation in domestic inflation and the output gap we use the resulting framework to analyse the macroeconomic implications of three alternative rulebased policy regimes for the small open economy domestic inflation and cpi based taylor rules and an exchange rate peg we show that a key difference among these regimes lies in the relative amount of exchange rate volatility that they entail we also discuss a special case for which domestic inflation targeting constitutes the optimal policy and where a simple second order approximation to the utility of the representative consumer can be derived and used to evaluate the welfare losses associated with the suboptimal rules

china s uneven progress against poverty while the incidence of extreme poverty in china fell dramatically over 1980 2001 progress was uneven over time and across provinces rural areas accounted for the bulk of the gains to the poor though migration to urban areas helped the pattern of growth mattered rural economic growth was far more important to national poverty reduction than urban economic growth agriculture played a far more important role than the secondary or tertiary sources of gross domestic product gdp rising inequality within the rural sector greatly slowed poverty reduction provinces starting with relatively high inequality saw slower progress against poverty due both to lower growth and a lower growth elasticity of poverty reduction taxation of farmers and inflation hurt the poor external trade had little short term impact

redistribution effects of energy and climate policy the electricity market abstract energy and climate policies are usually seen as measures to internalize externalities however as a side effect the introduction of these policies redistributes wealth between consumers and producers and within these groups while redistribution is seldom the focus of the academic literature in energy economics it plays a central role in public debates and policy decisions this paper compares the distributional effects of two major electricity policies support schemes for renewable energy sources and co2 pricing we find that the redistribution effects of both policies are large and they work in opposed directions while renewables support transfers wealth from producers to consumers carbon pricing does the opposite more specifically we show that moderate amounts of wind subsidies can increase consumer surplus even if consumers bear the subsidy costs co2 pricing in contrast increases aggregated producer surplus even without free allocation of emission allowances however not all types of producers benefit these findings are derived from an analytical model of electricity markets and a calibrated numerical model of northwestern europe our findings imply that if policy makers want to avoid large redistribution they might prefer a mix of policies even if co2 pricing alone is the first best climate policy in terms of allocative efficiency

a policy agenda for pro poor agricultural growth abstract sub saharan africa and parts of south asia are likely to hold large numbers of very poor rural people into the foreseeable future although both history and theory suggest a pre eminent role for agricultural growth in poverty reduction in poor agrarian economies such growth today faces new difficulties many of these difficulties are endogenous to today s poor rural areas others result from broader processes of global change but some are due to changes in the dominant policy environment emphasizing liberalization and state withdrawal examination of 20th century green revolutions suggests that active state interventions were important in supporting critical stages of agricultural market development unfortunately such interventions benefits in institutional development are easily overlooked whereas their high costs are much more visible policy implications are discussed

optimal sustainable monetary policy in recent monetary policy literature optimal commitment policy or its variant from a timeless perspective has been studied with emphasis on welfare gains from policy commitment regardless of its time consistency problem called a stabilization bias with an optimizing model used in the literature we examine sustainable equilibrium of chari and kehoe 1990 and study optimal sustainable policy the policymaker s strategy in the best sustainable equilibrium in the absence of commitment technologies calibrated versions of the model show that the ramsey equilibrium generated by optimal commitment policy is not achievable suggesting that optimal sustainable policy is the desirable policy benchmark from the viewpoint of policy operationality the latter policy involves some issues due to its dependence on the entire history of lagrange multipliers on a sustainability constraint as a guidepost for actual policy conduct that contains no such issues and attains higher social welfare than discretionary policy does we propose a sustainable policy conducted by following a policy rule that achieves the best markov equilibrium

electricity and markets over the last fifteen years an increasing number of electricity industries have replaced vertical integration with markets as the main method of organising production electrical energy is traded in many european and us markets while the us also has markets for generating capacity us generators can reduce the cost of complying with environmental regulations by trading emissions of sulphur dioxide while europe has just started a carbon dioxide emissions trading scheme this article discusses the way in which these markets put economic principles into practice in particular it shows that several different market designs can provide theoretically equivalent incentives for generators to build capacity and that emissions trading may have unexpected impacts upon electricity prices

calvo vs rotemberg in a trend inflation world an empirical investigation this paper estimates and compares new keynesian dsge monetary models of the business cycle derived under two dierent pricing schemes calvo 1983 and rotemberg 1982 under a positive trend in ation rate our empirical ndings i support trend in ation as an empirically relevant feature of the u s great moderation ii provide evidence in favor of the statistical superiority of the calvo setting iii support the absence of price indexation under the calvo mechanism only the superiority of the calvo model against rotemberg is due to the restrictions imposed by such a pricing scheme on the aggregate demand equation the determinacy regions implied by the two estimated models indicate relevant dierences in the implementable simple policy rules

the propagation of uncertainty shocks rotemberg versus calvo this article studies the effects of uncertainty shocks on economic activity focusing on inflation using a vector autoregression i show that increased uncertainty has negative demand effects reducing gdp and prices i then consider standard new keynesian models with rotemberg type and calvo type price rigidities despite the belief that the two schemes are equivalent i show that they generate different dynamics in response to uncertainty shocks in the rotemberg model uncertainty shocks decrease output and inflation in line with the empirical results by contrast in the calvo model uncertainty shocks decrease output but raise inflation because of firms precautionary pricing motive

adjustment toward peace an introduction abstract the recent experience of el salvador offers valuable lessons for economic policy in post conflictual transitions in the wake of a negotiated settlement to a civil war economic policy must support the adjustment toward peace in the short run policy must promote not only macroeconomic stabilization but also political stabilization this requires the mobilization of resources and the maintenance of political will for implementation of immediate peace related needs such as the reintegration of excombatants into civil society and the strengthening of democratic institutions long run policy objectives must encompass not only the attainment of macroeconomic balances but also equity that is balance in the distribution of income and wealth balanced investment in human natural and physical capital and democratization in the broad sense of a more balanced distribution of power in the end policies which fail to build on the crucial complementarities between peace and development are unlikely to achieve either goal

growth inequality and poverty looking beyond averages the evidence is compelling that the poor in developing countries do typically share in the gains from rising aggregate affluence and in the losses from aggregate contraction but how much do poor people share in growth do they gain more in some settings than others do some gain while others lose does pro poor growth mean more or less aggregate growth recent theories and evidence suggest some answers but deeper microeconomic empirical work is needed on growth and distributed change only then will we have a firm basis for identifying the specific policies and programs needed to complement and possibly modify growth oriented policies

real wage rigidities and disinflation dynamics calvo vs rotemberg pricing abstract calvo pricing implies output gains while rotemberg pricing implies output losses after a disinflation introducing real wage rigidities has opposite effects it generates a long lasting boom in output in calvo and a moderate output slump in rotemberg

impacts of a common green certificate market on electricity and co2 emission markets in the nordic countries abstract the purpose of this study is to analyze the effects of introducing a common nordic system for tradable green certificates tgcs on the electricity market and a future market for tradable co 2 emission permits teps in the analysis the energy system model generator markal was used to model the electricity and district heating supply systems in the four nordic countries sweden norway finland and denmark it is shown that the introduction of tgc quotas reduces wholesale electricity and tep prices the impact on the latter is very pronounced retail electricity prices may become lower or higher depending on the tgc quota than if obligations to fulfill tgc quotas were absent the tgc scheme s efficiency in reducing a specific amount of co 2 emissions is also compared to the corresponding efficiency of a tep scheme involving a broader range of technologies furthermore obligations to fulfill tgc quotas affect investment incentives for new non renewable electricity supply this seems especially true for gas fired power plants finally it is indicated that electricity supply based on biomass combustion dominates the tgc scheme at least in the short run

trend inflation and firms price setting rotemberg versus calvo we compare the calvo and rotemberg price setting mechanisms in a new keynesian model with trend inflation we show that the long run relationship between inflation and output is positive in rotemberg and negative in calvo the dynamics of the two models differ even to a first order approximation positive trend inflation enlarges the determinacy region in the rotemberg model whereas it shrinks it in the calvo model the responses of output and inflation to technology shocks are amplified by trend inflation in calvo whereas they are dampened in rotemberg the two models imply differing non linear adjustments after a disinflation

growth is good for whom when how economic growth and poverty reduction in exceptional cases summary economic growth and liberal economic policies often help the poor but what about the numerous cases in which they do not this article analyzes two types of cases those in which income growth of the poor was significantly lower than expectations negative exceptions and those in which income growth of the poor significantly exceeded expectations positive exceptions insights from these cases inform our theoretical understanding of poverty reduction in addition this article contributes a typology of strategies used in these cases including alternative pathways to economic growth and neoliberal prescriptions for poverty reduction

the inflation bias under calvo and rotemberg pricing new keynesian models rely heavily on two workhorse models of nominal inertia price contracts of random duration calvo 1983 and price adjustment costs rotemberg 1982 to generate a meaningful role for monetary policy these alternative descriptions of price stickiness are often used interchangeably since to a rst order of approximation they imply an isomorhpic phillips curve and if the steady state is ecient identical objectives for the policy maker and as a result in an lq framework the same policy conclusions

the merit order effect a detailed analysis of the price effect of renewable electricity generation on spot market prices in germany the german feed in support of electricity generation from renewable energy sources has led to high growth rates of the supported technologies critics state that the costs for consumers are too high an important aspect to be considered in the discussion is the price effect created by renewable electricity generation this paper seeks to analyse the impact of privileged renewable electricity generation on the electricity market in germany the central aspect to be analysed is the impact of renewable electricity generation on spot market prices the results generated by an agent based simulation platform indicate that the financial volume of the price reduction is considerable in the short run this gives rise to a distributional effect which creates savings for the demand side by reducing generator profits in the case of the year 2006 the volume of the merit order effect exceeds the volume of the net support payments for renewable electricity generation which have to be paid by consumers

the market value of variable renewables the effect of solar wind power variability on their relative price this paper provides a comprehensive discussion of the market value of variable renewable energy vre the inherent variability of wind speeds and solar radiation affects the price that vre generators receive on the market market value during windy and sunny times the additional electricity supply reduces the prices because the drop is larger with more installed capacity the market value of vre falls with higher penetration rate this study aims to develop a better understanding on how the market value with penetration and how policies and prices affect the market value quantitative evidence is derived from a review of published studies regression analysis of market data and the calibrated model of the european electricity market emma we find the value of wind power to fall from 110 of the average power price to 50 80 as wind penetration increases from zero to 30 of total electricity consumption for solar power similarly low value levels are reached already at 15 penetration hence competitive large scale renewable deployment will be more difficult to accomplish than as many anticipate

are valuation effects desirable from a global perspective abstract recent studies have emphasized the role of valuation effects due to exchange rate movements in easing the process of adjustment of the external balance of a country this paper asks to what extent valuation effects are desirable from a global perspective as a mean to achieve an efficient allocation of resources in a frictionless world it is desirable to have large movements in prices and exchange rates but once a small degree of price rigidity is introduced not only should prices be stabilized but also the response of the exchange rate should be muted there is a minor role for valuation effects that depends both on the size and composition of assets and liabilities

leftist parties neoliberal policies and reelection strategies the case of the pln in costa rica how do leftist parties in government abandon their traditional economic development programs adopt neoliberal policies and still win reelection this article examines the case of the leftist national liberation party pln in costa rica to explain this unexpected outcome the author argues that the explanation lies on two separate but related levels those of institutional rules and policy implementation strategies institutional rules constrain the behavior of political actors in multiple ways and structure political interaction however governments also employ specific policy implementation strategies e g obfuscation compensation division and incrementalism to adopt unpopular policies while reducing electoral costs as a result opposition to the reforms is more difficult to organize and potential negative consequences are difficult to identify for voters the institutional rules and the strategies that governments employ can account for the seeming paradox of a leftist party repeatedly abando

do support systems for res e reduce eu ets driven electricity prices abstract support systems for electricity from renewable energy sources res e can reduce electricity prices which have also been influenced by a co2 emission trading scheme ets additional res e substitutes electricity from fossil fuels and thus co2 emissions are reduced the demand for emission reductions is lowered as a result the co2 price is also reduced consequently the wholesale price for electricity decreases however most res e support systems are financed via the electricity market which increases the retail electricity price an assessment for germany shows that retail electricity prices in the first trading period of the eu ets 2005 2007 are lowered by 2 6 euro mwh due to additional res e considering the complete eu the effect is substantially higher this paper describes the effect and the influence of different policy designs it develops an approach for assessing the effect and applies it for the case of germany and roughly estimates the effect for the eu

welfare implications of calvo vs rotemberg pricing assumptions abstract this paper compares the welfare implications of two widely used pricing assumptions in the new keynesian literature calvo pricing vs rotemberg pricing we show that despite the strong similarities between the two assumptions to a first order of approximation in general they might entail different welfare costs at higher order of approximation

the macroeconomics of trend inflation most macroeconomic models for monetary policy analysis are approximated around a zero inflation steady state but most central banks target an inflation rate of about 2 percent many economists have recently proposed even higher inflation targets to reduce the incidence of the zero lower bound constraint on monetary policy in this survey we show that the conduct of monetary policy should be analyzed by appropriately accounting for the positive trend inflation targeted by policymakers we first review empirical research on the evolution and dynamics of u s trend inflation and some proposed new measures to assess the volatility and persistence of trend based inflation gaps we then construct a generalized new keynesian model that accounts for a positive trend inflation in this model an increase in trend inflation is associated with a more volatile and unstable economy and tends to destabilize inflation expectations this analysis offers a note of caution regarding recent proposals to address the existing zero lower bound problem by raising the long run inflation target jel e12 e31 e32 e52 e58

making negotiated land reform work initial experience from colombia brazil and south africa abstract the paper describes background initial experience and future challenges associated with a new negotiated approach to land reform this approach has emerged as following the end of the cold war and broad macroeconomic adjustment many countries face a second generation of reforms to address deep rooted structural problems and provide the basis for sustainable poverty reduction and economic growth it reviews possible theoretical links through credit market or political channels between asset ownership and economic performance program characteristics in each country as well as lessons for implementation and implications for monitoring and impact assessment are discussed

is rotemberg pricing justified by macro data abstract structural models used to study monetary policy often include sticky prices calvo pricing is more common but rotemberg pricing has become popular due to its computational advantage to determine whether the data supports that change we estimate a nonlinear new keynesian model with a zero lower bound zlb constraint and each type of sticky prices the models produce similar parameter estimates and the filtered shocks are nearly identical when the fed was not constrained but the rotemberg model has a higher marginal data density and it endogenously generates more volatility at the zlb which helps explain data from 2008 2011

when renewable portfolio standards meet cap and trade regulations in the electricity sector market interactions profits implications and policy redundancy emission trading programs c t and renewable portfolio standards rps are two common tools used by policymakers to control ghg emissions in the energy and other energy intensive sectors little is known however as to the policy implications resulting from these concurrent regulations especially given that their underlying policy goals and regulatory schemes are distinct this paper applies both an analytical model and a computational model to examine the short run implications of market interactions and policy redundancy the analytical model is used to generate contestable hypotheses while the numerical model is applied to consider more realistic market conditions we have two central findings first lowering the co2 c t cap might penalize renewable units and increasing the rps level could sometimes benefit coal and oil and make natural gas units worse off second making one policy more stringent would weaken the market incentive which the other policy relies upon to attain its intended policy target

large scale wind power integration and wholesale electricity trading benefits estimation via an ex post approach abstract the integration of large scale wind power has brought about a series of challenges to the power industry but at the same time a number of benefits are being realized among those the ability of wind power to cause a decline in the electricity market prices has been recognized in quantifying this effect some models used in recent years are based on simulations of the market supply side and the price clearing process the accuracy of the estimates depend on the quality of the input data the veracity of the adopted scenarios and the rigorousness of the solution technique in this work a series of econometric techniques based on actual ex post wind power and electricity price data are implemented for the estimation of the impact of region wide wind power integration on the local electricity market clearing prices and the trading savings that stem from this effect the model is applied to the case of spain where the estimated savings are compared against actual credit and bonus expenses to ratepayers the implications and extent of these results for current and future renewable energy policy making are discussed