design and analysis of simulated consumer choice or allocation experiments an approach based on aggregate data the authors integrate concepts in conjoint analysis and discrete choice theory in econometrics to develop a new approach to the design and analysis of controlled consumer choice or resource allocat

utility covariances and context effects in conjoint mnp models experimental conjoint choice analysis is among the most frequently used methods for measuring and analyzing consumer preferences the data from such experiments have been typically analyzed with the multinomial logit mnl model however there are several problems associated with the standard mnl model because it is based on the assumption that the error terms of the underlying random utilities are independent across alternatives choice sets and subjects the multinomial probit model mnp is well known to alleviate this assumption of independence of the error terms accounting for covariances in utilities in modeling choice experiments with the mnp is important because variation of the coefficients in the choice model may occur due to context effects previous research has shown that subjects utilities for alternatives depend on the choice context that is the particular set of alternatives evaluated simonson and tversky s tradeoff contrast principle describes the effect of the choice context on attribute importance and patterns of choice they distinguish local contrast effects which are caused by the alternatives in the offered set only and background contrast effects which are due to the influence of alternatives previously considered in choice experiments these effects are hypothesized to cause correlations in the utilities of alternatives within and across choice sets respectively the purpose of this study is to develop an mnp model for conjoint choice experiments this model is important for a more detailed study of choice patterns in those experiments in developing the mnp model for conjoint choice experiments several hurdles need to be taken related to the identification of the model and to the prediction of holdout profiles to overcome those problems we propose a random coefficients rc model that assumes a multivariate normal distribution of the regression coefficients with a rank one factor structure on the covariance matrix of these regression coefficients the parameters in this covariance matrix can be used to identify which attributes and levels of attributes are potentional sources of dependencies between the alternatives and choice sets in a conjoint choice experiment we present several versions of this model moreover for each of these models we allow utilities to be either correlated or independent across choice sets the independent probit ip model is used as a benchmark given the dimensionality of the integrations involved in computing the choice probabilities the models are estimated with simulated likelihood where simulations are used to approximate the integrals involved in the choice probabilities we apply and compare the models in two conjoint choice experiments in both applications the random coefficients mnp model that allows choices in different choice sets to be correlated rc displays superior fit and predictive validity compared with all other models we hypothesize that the difference in fit occurs because the rc model accommodates correlations among choice sets that are caused by background contrast effects whereas the model that treats choice sets as independent irc accounts for local contrast effects only the irc model shows superior model fit compared with the ip model but its predictions are worse than those of the ip model we find differences in the importance of local and background contrast effects for choice sets containing different numbers of alternatives the background contrast effect may be stronger for smaller choice sets whereas the local contrast effect may be stronger for bigger choice sets we illustrate the differences in simulated market shares that are obtained from the rc irc and ip models in three hypothetical situations product modification product line extension and the introduction of a me too brand in all of those situations substantially different market shares are predicted by the three models which illustrates the extent to which erroneous predictions may be obtained from the misspecified irc and ip models

green market expansion by reducing information asymmetries evidence for labeled organic food products abstract we investigate how the provision of objective information about the environmental and health impact of organic labels by policy makers can influence the willingness to pay of consumers for labeled organic apples in flanders belgium using a stated choice experiment we initially find that flemish consumers are willing to pay a positive price premium of some 33 eurocent per kilogram for labeled organic apples after the provision of information on the actual environmental and health effects of organic apple production this price premium becomes even more pronounced and increases to 57 eurocent per kilogram using a conditional logit model with covariates and a mixed logit model we find evidence of preference heterogeneity also the effect of information provision is more pronounced for certain groups of consumers such as non vegetarians infrequent buyers of organic products and members of a nature protection organization as such this paper illustrates that there is a role for policy makers and csr producers in providing more accurate and reliable information about socially responsible production processes moreover it is important to take the observed preference heterogeneity into account and tailor policies to specific consumer groups

private food safety and quality standards for fresh produce exporters the case of hortico agrisystems zimbabwe abstract there is evidence that the challenges of complying with stricter food safety and quality standards are acting to exclude small scale producers from export supply chains for high value agricultural products the case of hortico agrisystems illustrates the considerable challenges and costs faced by supermarket suppliers in sourcing from a broad base of small scale producers in the context of evolving food safety and quality standards while small scale producers are able to achieve levels of compliance at least equal to those of large scale producers multi tiered and dynamic systems of control are required to maintain control these need to include measures that facilitate compliance incentives to reward good performance and penalties to punish non compliance in establishing a sustainable supply system in this context both exporters and small scale producers face a steep learning curve in adjusting to new requirements further emphasising the need for supply chains to be responsive to change

estimation of consumer demand with stock out based substitution an application to vending machine products the occurrence of temporary stock outs at retail is common in frequently purchased product categories available empirical evidence suggests that when faced with stock outs consumers are often willing to buy substitute items an important implication of this consumer behavior is that observed sales of an item no longer provide a good measure of its core demand rate sales of items that stock out are right censored while sales of other items are inflated because of substitutions knowledge of the true demand rates and substitution rates is important for the retailer for a variety of category management decisions such as the ideal assortment to carry how much to stock of each item and how often to replenish the stock the estimated substitution rates can also be used to infer patterns of competition between items in the category in this paper we propose methods to estimate demand rates and substitution rates in such contexts we develop a model of customer arrivals and choice between goods that explicitly allows for possible product substitution and lost sales when a customer faces a stock out the model is developed in the context of retail vending an industry that accounts for a sizable part of the retail sales of many consumer products we consider the information set available from two kinds of inventory tracking systems in the best case scenario of a perpetual inventory system in which times of stock out occurrence and cumulative sales of all goods up to these times are observed we derive maximum likelihood estimates mles of the demand parameters and show that they are especially simple and intuitive however state of the art inventory systems in retail vend ing provide only periodic data i e data in which times of stock out occurrence are unobserved or missing for these data we show how the expectation maximization em algorithm can be employed to obtain the mles of the demand parameters by treating the stock out times as missing data we show an application of the model to daily sales and stocking data pooled across multiple beverage vending machines in a midwestern u s city the vending machines in the application carry identical assortments of six brands since the number of parameters to be estimated is too large given the available data we discuss possible restrictions of the consumer choice model to accomplish the estimation our results indicate that demand rates estimated naively by using observed sales rates are biased even for items that have very few occurrences of stock outs we also find significant differences among the substitution rates of the six brands the methods proposed in our paper can be modified to apply to many nonvending retail settings in which consumer choices are observed not their preferences and choices are constrained because of unavailability of items in the choice set one such context is in store grocery retailing where similar issues of information availability arise in this context an important issue that would need to be dealt with is changes in the retail environment caused by retail promotions

the investor specific price of renewable energy project risk a choice experiment with incumbent utilities and institutional investors abstract renewable energy investments in germany have recently soared trebling the output of wind and solar power generation in only ten years while incumbent utilities have lagged behind in terms of investment new entrants have significantly contributed to this growth existing literature has primarily focused on explaining the lethargy of incumbents former investments although there is a growing need to investigate recent investment drivers to secure the necessary power plant capacity at a moderate cost from incumbents and new entrants alike to close this gap a choice experiment involving 1 659 investment choices by 52 european professional investors was conducted in significant contrast to the case with altruistic investors this survey underlines the importance of using financial incentives to attract professional investors given full exposure to electricity price risk incumbent utilities would facilitate projects at a 3 04 risk premium whereas institutional investors demand 6 61 generally incumbent utilities and institutional investors are equally attracted by low risk projects however when risk increases institutional investors are more hesitant to become involved while incumbent utilities confidently navigate these higher risk projects

social networks and new product choice to successfully market new products in a social network it is essential to identify influential individuals whose product recommendations influence the consumption choices of their peers in this study we use spatial econometric methods to determine how individuals revise their preferences for product attributes when exposed to product recommendations from peers and how different individuals who vary in their degree of network connectedness exert influence on the product choices of others we find evidence that consumers look to others for guidance from peers in their preference for subjective taste specific parameters but tend not to respond to peer price choices our spatial methods allow us to empirically determine the influence exerted by individual members on the consumption choices of other members of the social network we find that connected members of the social network are not always the most influential in revising the consumption choices of others our estimates reveal that network proximity explains only 8 8 of influence

toward improving the design of sustainability standards a gendered analysis of farmers preferences summary recently sustainability standards have gained in importance for export crops produced in developing countries several studies analyzed whether such standards deliver on their promise to improve the livelihoods of poor farmers with mixed results here we ask whether the design of standards could be improved such that farm households benefit more an assessment of what particular features of standards hamper or facilitate participation requires a better understanding of farmers preferences our contribution is twofold first based on a choice experiment we analyze how farmers evaluate actual and hypothetical features of standards data were collected from small scale coffee producers in uganda second this is the first quantitative study on standards employing a gendered research design a gender focus is important because coffee and other certified export crops are often controlled by men the choice experiment included features of standards aimed at reducing gender inequality and was conducted separately with male and female members of farm households results indicate that farmers have positive attitudes toward sustainability standards in general while they dislike bans of productivity enhancing inputs agricultural training and special female support are appreciated many also see requirements that have to be met for certification as a welcome nudge to invest in better farm management and quality upgrading female farmers have a higher preference for standards than male farmers also within households significant preference heterogeneity between women and men is found

fiscal deficits and inflation abstract macroeconomic theory postulates that persistent fiscal deficits are inflationary yet empirical research has had limited success in uncovering this relationship this paper reexamines the issue in light of broader data and a new modeling approach that incorporates two key features of the theory unlike previous studies we model inflation as non linearly related to fiscal deficits through the inflation tax base and estimate this relationship as intrinsically dynamic using panel techniques that explicitly distinguish between short and long run effects of fiscal deficits results spanning 107 countries over 1960 2001 show a strong positive association between deficits and inflation among high inflation and developing country groups but not among low inflation advanced economies

rational choice a survey of contributions from economics and philosophy this paper looks at the philosophical foundations of rational choice theory it is argued that l savage s expected utility axioms cannot be defended as requirements of instrumental rationality in part because of their implications for the description of consequences then it is argued that common knowledge of rationality does not imply that rational game players must be in nash equilibrium and for some games is an incoherent concept finally the suggestion that rational choice theory is self defeating is examined in relation to coordination games where the theory cannot explain the role of salience and the concept of resolute choice copyright 1991 by royal economic society

analyzing public preferences and increasing acceptability for the renewable portfolio standard in korea abstract in order to respond to the challenge of climate change similar to other countries korea has announced various policies to vitalize the development and uptake of renewable energy the renewable portfolio standard rps is the most striking example of a policy in this area this study employs a conjoint survey and bayesian mixed logit model to analyze consumer preferences for specific attributes of the rps policy it analyzes households marginal willingness to pay mwtp for the rps with specific attributes and simulates the degree of household acceptability of the policy through a scenario analysis comparison between costs and benefits of implementing the policy is also attempted by analyzing the households mwtp with the actual transition expense of rps implementation incurred by electricity supply companies the simulation results provide implications for improving rps policy implementation households consider the creation of new jobs as the most important policy attribute followed by increase in electricity prices damage to forests reduction in co 2 emissions and length of power outages moreover the korean household is willing to accept an increase of up to 1 39 in its electricity prices relative to 2012 and the median mwtp of each household for rps implementation is krw 734 99 month usd 0 67 month

rice farmers preferences for fairtrade contracting in benin evidence from a discrete choice experiment abstract private standards such as fairtrade have emerged as a response to consumer civil society and corporate concerns about the production conditions of imported food many studies have investigated the welfare implications of smallholder participation in fairtrade schemes and consumers willingness to pay for fairtrade and other labelled products on the other hand no study has yet investigated farmers preferences for fairtrade and other private standards such insights would be valuable to improve the efficiency of certification schemes and ensure that they are tailored to farmers needs using a choice experiment this study investigates the preferences of smallholder rice farmers in benin for fairtrade and organic standards and compares the value of three types of contracts domestic fairtrade and fairtrade organic the results indicate that farmers positively value contracts but prefer domestic over fairtrade contracts because the former involve fewer requirements at current market prices farmers are willing to accept a fairtrade contract that includes fertiliser and child labour restrictions and a social premium but they are not willing to accept a fairtrade organic contract that completely prohibits chemical input use the results imply that adding organic requirements to fairtrade contracts may undermine the adoption and spread of fairtrade certification in the beninese rice sector

u s real exchange rate fluctuations and relative price fluctuations abstract traditional theory attributes fluctuations in real exchange rates to changes in the relative price of nontraded goods this paper studies the relation between the united states bilateral real exchange rate and the associated bilateral relative price of nontraded goods for five of its most important trade relationships we find that this relation depends crucially on the choice of price series used to measure relative prices and on the choice of trade partner the relation is stronger when we measure relative prices using producer prices rather than consumer prices the relation is stronger the more important is the trade relationship between the united states and a trade partner even in cases where there is a strong relation between the real exchange rate and the relative price of nontraded goods however a large fraction of real exchange rate fluctuations is due to deviations from the law of one price for traded goods

decomposition of warm glow for multiple stakeholders stated choice valuation of shellfishery policy a monetary valuation study of marine management in the dutch wadden sea the largest natural area of the netherlands is presented the study is motivated by a conflict between shellfisheries and large populations of birds that forage on cockles different management scenarios are valued using multiple stakeholders namely dutch citizens local residents tourists policy makers and natural scientists a considerable difference in willingness to pay wtp between these groups is found in addition the influence of motivational profiles is examined estimates confirm the presence of two such motivations namely material and moral warm glow these allow for decomposition and correction of the wtp estimates

spillovers from modern supply chains to traditional markets product innovation and adoption by smallholders there is an emerging body of literature analyzing how smallholder farmers in developing countries can benefit from modern supply chains however most of the available studies concentrate on export markets and fail to capture spillover effects that modern supply chains may have on local markets here we analyze the case of sweet pepper in thailand which was initially introduced as a product innovation in modern supply chains but which is now widely traded also in more traditional markets using survey data from smallholder farmers and econometric techniques we show that sweet pepper cultivation contributes significantly to higher household incomes strikingly at this stage participation in modern supply chains does not lead to higher incomes than supplying sweet pepper to traditional markets however the results also indicate that missing land titles weak infrastructure conditions and limited access to information constituted serious constraints during the early phases of sweet pepper adoption such constraints need to be overcome so that smallholder farmers are better prepared for the prompt reactions needed under rapidly changing market conditions

rationally justifiable play and the theory of non cooperative games noncooperative game theory is often interpreted as a theory of how games would be played if players were rational on this view its central project is to discover which strategies are rationally justifiable and which are not in any game in this paper we consider whether the conventional assumptions of modern game theory equip it to fulfil this project we present an impossibility result which concerns the extent to which they can do so the result can be seen as strengthening a claim established by borgers and samuelson 1992 and samuelson 1992

an analysis of contract farming in east java bali and lombok indonesia this article examines the emergence and benefits of contract farming in east java bali and lombok indonesia after a general review of contract farming in these regions three contracts for seed corn in east java seed rice in bali and broilers in lombok are described and analyzed using key informant interviews and household survey data a review of the contracts suggest that there is a wide array of contract types and this is related to the technical requirements of production and the associated costs probit analysis is used to identify factors contributing to smallholder participation in farm contracts and a two stage estimation process used to measure the effects of farm contracts on gross margins and labor use results indicate participation in contracts is influenced by farm size and other factors such as smallholder s age education and participation in farm groups contracts increased returns to capital for the seed corn and broiler contracts but not for the seed rice contract all three contracts influenced the types of labor used however none of them influenced total farm employment

contract farming and smallholder incentives to produce high quality experimental evidence from the vietnamese dairy sector in emerging markets for high value food products in developing countries processing companies search for efficient ways to source raw material of high quality one widely embraced approach is contract farming but relatively little is known about the appropriate design of financial incentives in a small farm context we use the example of the vietnamese dairy sector to analyze the effectiveness of existing contracts between a processor and smallholder farmers in terms of incentivizing the production of high quality milk a framed field experiment is conducted to evaluate the impact of two incentive instruments a price penalty for low quality and a bonus for consistent high quality milk on farmers investment in quality improving inputs statistical analysis suggests that the penalty drives farmers into higher input use resulting in better output quality the bonus payment generates even higher quality milk we also find that input choice levels depend on farmers socio economic characteristics such as wealth while individual risk preferences seem to be less important implications for the design of contracts with smallholders are discussed

consumption and exchange rate uncertainty evidence from selected asian countries we set out to assess the effects of exchange rate uncertainty on real consumption in selected asian countries consumption influences business cycles which in turn shape short run monetary policy decisions hence understanding factors driving consumption is appealing to policymakers in the extant literature few studies have analysed the effects of uncertainty on consumption the available ones generally focus on the long run effects in spite of the fact that the short run persistence and adjustments to equilibrium are equally relevant our study takes this limitation seriously by distinguishing the short and long run effects of exchange rate uncertainty on consumption using a flexible dynamic panel data technique that allows long run effects to be homogeneous and the short run effects to be heterogeneous we find that uncertainty impedes consumption in the long run in the short run however the effects are immaterial this evidence remains robust to the measure of uncertainty asymmetric uncertainty the role of consumer prices and the global financial crisis of 2008 by decomposing uncertainty into its temporary and permanent components we find that the latter have a stronger effect on consumption in the long run than the former although both components demand policy attention the evidence suggests that policymakers should be more concerned with permanent uncertainty

permanent and temporary inflation uncertainty and investment in the united states abstract we estimate the impact on us non residential fixed investment of permanent and temporary inflation uncertainty we find that while both have a negative effect temporary uncertainty is more important for investment this study has implications for monetary policy and applied econometric practice

financial integration and the wealth effect of exchange rate fluctuations abstract recent years have witnessed a large increase in international financial integration in the form of largely offsetting cross holdings across countries we assess how such financial leverage affects the international transmission of monetary shocks and find that it leads to sizable welfare differentials that far exceed the impact due to nominal rigidities we document the relevance of the exact nature of holdings with bond holdings associated with larger effects than equity holdings the impact of financial leverage on welfare is also sensitive to the extent of exchange rate pass through and the substitutability between goods produced in different countries

are choice experiments incentive compatible a test with quality differentiated beef steaks this study compares hypothetical and nonhypothetical responses to choice experiment questions we test for hypothetical bias in a choice experiment involving beef ribeye steaks with differing quality attributes in general hypothetical responses predicted higher probabilities of purchasing beef steaks than nonhypothetical responses thus hypothetical choices overestimate total willingness to pay for beef steaks however marginal willingness to pay for a change in steak quality is in general not statistically different across hypothetical and actual payment settings

trade with heterogeneous prior beliefs and asymmetric information no trade theorems have shown that new information will not lead to trade when agents share the same prior beliefs this paper explores the structure of no trade theorems with heterogeneous prior beliefs it is shown how different notions of efficiency under asymmetric information ex ante interim ex post are related to agents prior beliefs as well as incentive compatible and public versions of those efficiency concepts these efficiency results are used to characterize necessary and sufficient conditions on agents beliefs for no trade theorems in different trading environments

the bayesian foundations of solution concepts of games abstract we transform a noncooperative game into a bayesian decision problem for each player where the uncertainty faced by a player is the strategy choices of the other players the priors of other players on the choice of other players the priors over priors and so on we provide a complete characterization between the extent of knowledge about the rationality of players and their ability to successively eliminate strategies which are not best responses this paper therefore provides the informational foundations of iteratively undominated strategies and rationalizable strategic behavior b d bernheim econometrica 52 1984 1007 1028 d pearce econometrica 52 1984 1029 1050 sufficient conditions are also found for nash equilibrium behavior and a result akin to r j aumann econometrica 55 1987 1 18 on correlated equilibria is derived with different hypotheses

correlated equilibrium as an expression of bayesian rationality if it is common knowledge that the players in a game are bayesian utility maximizers who treat uncertainty about other players actions like any other uncertainty then the outcome is necessarily a correlated equilibrium random strategies appear as an expression of each player s uncertainty about what the others will do not as the result of willful randomization use is made of the common prior assumption according to which differences in probability assessments by different individuals are due to the different information that they have where information may be interpreted broadly to include experience upbringing and genetic makeup copyright 1987 by the econometric society

rationalizable strategic behavior the notion of equilibrium proposed by nash 19 has come to play a dominant role in economic applications of noncooperative games while analyses of nash equilibria have unquestionably contributed to our understanding of economic behavior it would be unreasonably optimistic to maintain that nash solved the problem of noncooperative strategic choice there is a small literature beginning with ellsberg 6 and a much larger oral tradition which argues that nash behavior is neither a necessary consequence of rationality nor a reasonable empirical proposition in this paper i take the view that although there may be various reasons why an agent might select a nash strategy the notion of an equilibrium has little intrinsic appeal within a strategic context when an agent reaches a decision in ignorance of the strategies adopted by other players rationality consists of making a choice which is justifiable by an internally consistent system of beliefs rather than one which is optimal post hoc this point of view is not original indeed most serious justifications of the nash hypothesis embrace such an approach arguing that agents will expect the game to yield a nash outcome and consequently will choose their equilibrium strategies nevertheless when we think in terms of maximizing utility subject to expectations rather than realizations it becomes clear that the nash hypothesis far from being a consequence of rationality arises from certain restrictions on agents expectations which may or may not be plausible depending upon the game being played we are then quite naturally led to ask are there any restrictions of individuals expectations and hence choices which are required by rationality alone rather than by subjective plausibility this paper is concerned with defining justifying characterizing and refining a criterion for rational strategic choice which i label rationalizability

technical note simplified estimation procedures for mci models structural transformations of the mci model are presented which make the model easily estimated using dummy variables with widely available regression packages the mci model is empirically shown to provide better predictive power than several other models of similar form but ones which do not produce logically consistent market share estimates

modernizing wholesalers and guava farmers in mexico this article focuses on the rapid development of the modernizing wholesale channel with a study of guava traders and farmers in mexico this adds to a literature on modernization of food markets that has focused primarily on exports supermarkets and large processors and addressed less wholesale in general and rarely modernizing wholesale per se we find that participation in the modernizing wholesale channel relative to the traditional broker channel requires greater land regional and nonland assets as well as confers a premium controlling for quality and spurs employment in harvesting and handling locally

the choice theory approach to market research this paper surveys economic choice theory stressing developments that permit use of data from psychometric and conjoint experiments to produce market demand forecasts alternatives to the widely used multinomial logit model are summarized and a new method for estimating multinomial probits is described an integration of choice models with attitudinal scaling and perceptual mapping within a latent variable system is described estimation of such systems under either random effects or fixed effects descriptions of heterogeneity across individuals is discussed issues in the use of choice models to describe responses from conjoint experiments are presented new regression diagnostic tests for the consistency of multinomial logit representations are discussed

inequality and growth in the united states evidence from a new state level panel of income inequality measures i introduction rising income inequality in the united states over the past quarter century is well documented see e g gottschalk 1997 krueger 2003 levy and murnane 1992 piketty and saez 2003 whether and by how much this change in inequality is associated with a change in economic performance is an important question yet recent empirical work has been largely inconclusive positive relationships between income inequality and economic growth have been found by partridge 1997 2005 using a panel of states and by forbes 2000 using a panel of countries empirical work by panizza 2002 and quah 2001 however has found little or no stable relationship between inequality and growth the results appear to be extremely sensitive to the econometric specification additionally barro 2000 has found evidence that the relationship is nonlinear with inequality being positively related to growth among wealthier countries like the united states but negatively related to growth among low income countries much of this recent empirical literature was initiated by the important work of deininger and squire 1996 who constructed a large cross national panel of inequality measures containing several time series observations for each nation spaced over multiple decades a parallel empirical literature also emerged using u s state level data with income inequality measures typically spaced at 10 yr intervals see e g panizza 2002 partridge 1997 2005 both the state level and the cross national empirical literatures benefited by exploiting the more advanced panel data econometrics afforded by the large n small t panel dimensions in this paper we offer a new more comprehensive panel of state level income inequality measures and use this panel to reevaluate the empirical inequality growth relationship 1 this panel has the unique feature of being large in both n and t with annual observations of the 48 contiguous states for the entirety of the postwar period 1945 2004 for nearly all the states in the panel the share of income held by the top decile experienced a prolonged period of stability after world war ii followed by a substantial increase during the 1980s and 1990s these state level trends appear to closely replicate the overall trends in aggregate u s inequality found by piketty and saez 2003 exploiting the large and balanced size of our inequality panel we explore the long run relationship between inequality and growth via three alternative dynamic panel error correction estimators the fixed effects fe estimator the mean group mg estimator of pesaran and smith 1995 and the pooled mg estimator of pesaran shin and smith 1999 the greater homogeneity of state level data helps mitigate the difficulty in adequately capturing structural differences across international panels of earlier studies such as forbes 2000 and barro 2000 corruption levels labor market flexibility tax neutrality tradition of entrepreneurship and many other factors are only poorly measured if at all barro 2000 1011 and these sources of heterogeneity are much more likely to contribute to omitted variable bias across countries than across states the results from our analysis indicate that the long run relationship between the top decile share of income and economic growth is positive in nature moreover an evaluation of several alternative income inequality measures suggests that this positive relationship is driven primarily by the concentration of income in the upper end of the income distribution the structure of the paper is as follows section ii presents the new panel of annual state level inequality measures and includes an important discussion of its key limitations section iii then offers an empirical investigation on the impact of income inequality on the growth rate of real income per capita finally section iv offers a brief set of conclusions

perceptions versus objective measures of environmental quality in combined revealed and stated preference models of environmental valuation abstract this study examines perceptions and objective attribute measures in discrete choice models of recreation site choice behavior these forms of attribute measurement are examined in individual and combined revealed preference stated preference models our results suggest that the model based on perceptions slightly outperforms the models based on objective attribute measures however issues such as the definition of the choice set and the measurement of welfare present significant challenges when using perceptions data

food value chain transformations in developing countries selected hypotheses on nutritional implications we examine how the transformation of food value chains fvcs influence the triple malnutrition burden undernourishment micronutrient deficiencies and over nutrition in developing countries we propose a fvc typology modern traditional modern to traditional and traditional to modern that takes into account the participants the target market and the products offered next we propose selected hypotheses on the relationship between each fvc category and elements of the triple malnutrition burden the primary finding is that the transformation of fvcs creates challenges and opportunities for nutrition in developing countries for example modern fvcs may increase over nutrition problems and alleviate micronutrient deficiencies for urban people with relatively high incomes however they have little nutritional impacts among rural residents and urban poor people who primarily depend on traditional fvcs to access adequate quantities of calories and micronutrients in addition modern food manufacturers are leveraging traditional distribution networks modern to traditional fvcs substantially increasing access to low priced processed packaged foods in rural areas and low income urban neighbors with mixed impacts on the triple burden of malnutrition further research should focus on the influence of fvc transformation on reduction of micronutrient deficiencies on modeling demand substitution effects across food categories and the attendant policy implications for malnutrition

rationalizable strategic behavior and the problem of perfection this paper explores the fundamental problem of what can be inferred about the outcome of a noncooperative game from the rationality of the players and from the information they possess the answer is summarized in a solution concept called rationalizability strategy profiles that are rationalizable are not always nash equilibria conversely the information in an extensive form game often allows certain unreasonable nash equilibria to be excluded from the set of rationalizable profiles a stronger form of rationalizability is appropriate if players are known to be not merely rational but also cautious what constitutes rational behavior in a noncooperative strategic situation this paper explores the issue in the context of a wide class of finite noncooperative games in extensive form the traditional answer relies heavily upon the idea of nash equilibrium nash 17 the position developed here however is that as a criterion for judging a profile of strategies to be reasonable choices for players in a game the nash equilibrium property is neither necessary nor sufficient some nash equilibria are intuitively unreasonable and not all reasonable strategy profiles are nash equilibria the fact that a nash equilibrium can be intuitively unattractive is well known the equilibrium may be imperfect introduced into the literature by selten 20 the idea of imperfect equilibria has prompted game theorists to search for a narrower definition of equilibrium while this research some of which will be discussed here has been extremely instructive it remains inconclusive theorists often agree about what should happen in particular games but to capture this intuition in a general solution concept has proved to be very difficult if this paper is successful it should make some progress in that direction the other side of the coin has received less scrutiny can all non nash profiles really be excluded on logical grounds i believe not the standard justifications for considering only nash profiles are circular in nature or make gratuitous assumptions about players decision criteria or beliefs the following discussion of these points is extremely brief due to space constraints more detailed arguments may be found in pearce 18

a framework to facilitate institutional arrangements for smallholder supply in developing countries an agribusiness perspective the industrialization of agriculture and the potential problem of small scale farmer marginalization calls for a fresh approach to the design of agribusiness supply chain arrangements in developing countries the objective of the paper is to contribute to a better understanding of institutional arrangements that can promote stable smallholder agribusiness contracting arrangements in a developing country context a case study approach incorporating a transaction cost framework is used to test whether trust can significantly change the contract characteristics of supply the results suggest that although the presence of trust can influence the contract characteristics of a supply arrangement it may not be significant because of other factors in a developing country context bearing this in mind a number of institutional arrangements are recommended in order to promote more stable contract conditions

do hypothetical and actual marginal willingness to pay differ in choice experiments application to the valuation of the environment abstract in this paper we test the validity of choice experiments with donations for environmental projects in particular we test whether or not there are differences in preferences between a hypothetical and an actual choice experiment our experiments indicate no differences in addition internal tests of validity indicate transitive and stable preferences in both experiments although there are some indications of possible learning effects during the experiment

china s financial linkages with asia and the global financial crisis abstract this paper presents empirical evidence on asset market linkages between china and asia and how these linkages have shifted during and after the global financial crisis of 2008 2009 we find only weak cross country linkages in longer term interest rates but much stronger linkages in equity markets this finding is consistent with the greater development and liberalization of equity markets relative to bond markets in china as well as increasing business and trade linkages in the region we also find that the strength of the correlation of equity prices changes between china and other asia countries increased markedly during the crisis and has remained high in recent years we attribute this development to greater attentiveness of international investors to china s role as a source and destination of equity finance during the crisis rather than to any greater financial deepening and liberalization as china did not implement any major policy measures during this period by contrast the transmission of u s equity returns to asian countries decreased after the crisis

is there a debt threshold effect on output growth abstract this paper studies the relationship between public debt expansion and economic growth and investigates whether the debt growth relation varies with the level of indebtedness we contribute theoretically by developing tests for threshold effects in the context of dynamic heterogeneous panel data models with cross sectionally dependent errors in the empirical application using data on a sample of forty countries over the 1965 2010 period we find no evidence for a universally applicable threshold effect in the relationship between public debt and economic growth regardless of the threshold however we find significant negative effects of public debt buildup on output growth

preference for the workplace investment in human capital and gender we use a hypothetical choice methodology to estimate preferences for workplace attributes from a sample of high ability undergraduates attending a highly selective university we estimate that women on average have a higher willingness to pay wtp for jobs with greater work flexibility and job stability and men have a higher wtp for jobs with higher earnings growth these job preferences relate to college major choices and to actual job choices reported in a follow up survey four years after graduation the gender differences in preferences explain at least a quarter of the early career gender wage gap

using choice experiments to value the environment this paper we outline the choice experiment approach to environmental valuation this approach has its roots in lancaster s characteristics theory of value in random utility theory and in experimental design we show how marginal values for the attributes of environmental assets such as forests and rivers can be estimated from pair wise choices as well as the value of the environmental asset as a whole these choice pairs are designed so as to allow efficient statistical estimation of the underlying utility function and to minimise required sample size choice experiments have important advantages over other environmental valuation methods such as contingent valuation and travel cost type models although many design issues remain unresolved applications to environmental issues have so far been relatively limited we illustrate the use of choice experiments with reference to a recent uk study on public preferences for alternative forest landscapes this study allows us to perform a convergent validity test on the choice experiment estimates of willingness to pay

on the status of the nash type of noncooperative equilibrium in economic theory in economic theory the nash type of noncooperative equilibrium is a widely used equilibrium concept nevertheless the concept is frequently misunderstood and misleading explanations and interpretations are often given this paper presents a sample of such frequently appearing misleading explanations and goes on to explain why they are misleading the case for using the nash noncooperative equilibrium concept is stronger than what is implied by the many misleading statements found in the literature a basic issue is whether it can be argued that decisions in accordance with the noncooperative equilibrium theory are individually rational decisions this issue is not covered by the classical rationality postulate in economic theory this problem is tackled by stating certain postulates which may be taken as defining individual rationality in situations of noncooperative interaction it is shown that nash behavior satisfies these postulates

contractual arrangements and enforcement in transition agriculture theory and evidence from china abstract this paper empirically investigates the relationship between contractual arrangements and their enforcement in chinese agriculture based on an analysis of a survey of 100 agribusiness firms engaged in contract farming in zhejiang province of china we find that private contract enforcement mechanisms play an important role in influencing smallholders decisions to breach or fulfill contracts contract arrangements such as floor pricing or requiring smallholders to make specific investments facilitate self enforcement and significantly improve the smallholder s contract fulfillment rate this is particularly important in chinese agriculture since the business environment is characterized by an absence of effective public enforcement institutions

increasing the benefits to smallholders from contract farming problems for farmers organizations and policy makers abstract contract farming cf is potentially beneficial to small farmers providing services not readily available by other means in reality growers frequently face serious problems in dealing with firms indicating the need for intervention by government or by farmers organizations however the hybrid structure and multiple objectives of cf schemes make it difficult to organize farmers or to design effective policy interventions this article describes some of the most frequent problems points out trade offs among competing welfare goals and cautions against the use of cf as a simple model for agricultural development

agricultural pesticides and land use intensification in high middle and low income countries abstract we study levels and trends in agricultural pesticide use for a large cross section of countries using fao data for the period 1990 2009 our analysis shows that a 1 increase in crop output per hectare is associated with a 1 8 increase in pesticide use per hectare but that the growth in intensity of pesticide use levels off as countries reach a higher level of economic development however very few high income countries have managed to significantly reduce the level of intensity of their pesticide use because decreases in insecticide use at higher income levels are largely offset by increases in herbicide and fungicide use the results also show very rapid growth in the intensity of pesticide use for several middle income countries such as brazil mexico uruguay cameroon malaysia and thailand complementing our analysis with data from the rotterdam convention on prior informed consent pic we show that hazardous pesticides covered in the pic procedure are more weakly regulated in lower than in higher income countries we discuss the policy challenges facing developing countries with a rapid growth in pesticide use and recommend a four pronged strategy including an environmental tax on pesticides with revenues allocated to long term investments in awareness building the development of integrated crop management methods and the setting of food safety standards the interactions between these measures should help contribute to the effectiveness of the overall strategy package

unobserved component time series models with markov switching heteroscedasticity changes in regime and the link between inflation rates and inflation uncertainty in this article i first extend the standard unobserved component time series model to include hamilton s markov switching heteroscedasticity this will provide an alternative to the unobserved component model with autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity as developed by harvey ruiz and sentana and by evans and wachtel i then apply a generalized version of the model to investigate the link between inflation and its uncertainty u s data gross national product deflator 1958 1 1990 4 i assume that inflation consists of a stochastic trend random walk component and a stationary autoregressive component following ball and cecchetti and a four state model of u s inflation rate is specified by incorporating regime shifts in both mean and variance structures i analyze the interaction of mean and variance over long and short horizons the empirical results show that inflation is costly because higher inflation is associated with higher long run uncertainty

why do small scale producers choose to produce under contract lessons from nontraditional vegetable exports from zimbabwe summary this article explores the motivations behind the decision of small scale producers to grow nontraditional vegetables under contract for export based on a survey of small scale producers in zimbabwe four factors are identified as motivating contracting namely market uncertainty indirect benefits e g knowledge acquisition income benefits and intangible benefits respondents are clustered according to the relative importance of these factors in their contracting decision four clusters are identified and related to the characteristics of these farmers including size of the farm amount of land devoted to export crops access to alternative markets and the proportion of family income derived from export crops the results suggest that there are systematic differences between farmers in their decisions to contract which needs to be recognized in contract design and management 2005 elsevier ltd all rights reserved

trade standards and poverty evidence from senegal summary in the debate on trade and poverty it is argued that standards act as trade barriers and cause marginalization of the poor this paper quantifies income and poverty effects of high standards trade and integrates labor market effects by using company and household survey data from the vegetable export chain in senegal we find that exports grew sharply despite increasing standards contributing importantly to rural incomes and poverty reduction tightening standards induced a shift from smallholder contract farming to integrated estate production altering the mechanism through which poor households benefit through labor markets instead of product markets

tourist preferences for rural house stays evidence from discrete choice modelling in spain abstract although the appeal of rural houses for tourists lies mainly in the natural surroundings and their intrinsic rural characteristics there are other factors which are also important such as their size type of building quality of equipment services and activities offered to evaluate the tourists preferences for these potential or effective attributes a stated preference experiment was conducted in the northwest area of the region of murcia and the data are analysed using discrete choice modelling methodology consistent specifications for multinomial logit and mixed logit models that consider variations in tastes within tourists preferences are found the results could be of use to promoters and owners of rural houses when planning marketing and promotional campaigns or when taking effective investment decisions

supermarkets wholesalers and tomato growers in guatemala the article shows the asset related determinants and the impacts of the participation of small farmers in supermarkets versus traditional market channels in guatemala compared to farmers selling only to the traditional market channels farmers selling to supermarket channels are larger but are in the upper tier of the small farmer category have more capital and are much more specialized in commercial horticulture in general and in tomatoes in particular while they have higher yields they also have higher input use including use of chemicals in fact they severely overuse pesticides and fungicides moreover these greater input expenditures mean that their profit rates are roughly similar to those of farmers in the traditional market channel supermarket channel farmers prefer the more demanding wholesale supermarket channel because it offers lower risks and lower transaction costs to market a variety of quality grades of tomatoes all year long in turn the supermarkets who do not buy direct but rather source from a few specialized dedicated wholesalers rely on this year round supply lower transaction costs and consistency of quality

axiomatic characterizations of rational choice in strategic environments for more than forty years economists have wrestled with the elusive notion of rational behavior in strategic environments generating a variety of competing approaches even for simple simultaneous move games four distinct solution concepts including the notions of nash equilibria correlated equilibria rationalizability and iterated dominance currently have some standing as theories of strategic rationality here i propose four axioms for rational choice in strategic environments and use these to characterize the sets of pure strategies that players may select under each of the solution concepts mentioned above my results underscore both the similarities and differences between the four concepts

public preferences for carbon tax attributes the impacts of climate change are already visible throughout the world recognizing the threats posed by climate change the durban platform the 17th session of the conference of parties cop 17 underscores that the global nature of climate change calls for the widest possible cooperation and ambitious action by all countries a crucial starting point for the design of effective and publicly acceptable policies is to explore public preferences for climate policy instruments using a choice experiment this study investigates public preferences for carbon tax attributes in a developing country context the results account for heterogeneity in preferences and show that turkish people prefer a carbon tax with a progressive cost distribution rather than one with a regressive cost distribution the private cost has a negative effect on the probability of choosing the tax earmarking carbon tax revenues increases the public acceptability of the tax moreover there is a preference for a carbon tax that promotes public awareness of climate change

determinants of consumption and savings behavior in developing countries the determinants of savings generally and the specific effects of government policies on savings and consumption are pivotal forces in investment and economic growth the hall hypothesis states that consumption is a function of lifetime permanent income rather than income in each period independently changes in interest and tax rates money supply or government expenditure will affect permanent income and hence consumption and savings only if they are unexpected and thus not already incorporated in the estimation of permanent income we are unable to reject the hall hypothesis in tests for developing countries when we allow for varying interest rates we do find evidence of a negative effect of inflation on consumption and a positive relationship between the real interest rate and consumption the evidence for the hall hypothesis also suggests that ricardian equivalence may be valid this is barro s hypothesis that the effect on savings is the same whether government deficits are financed through taxation or debt our preliminary testing however does not support ricardian equivalence savings is the part of one s current income that is not spent on current consumption and it constitutes a large part of a nation s aggregate savings and investment and thus is a major determinant of the growth of future income and consumption households balance the tradeoffs between current and future consumption possibilities when making their individual consumption decisions understanding the determinants of households consumption behavior has been central to macroeconomics the three main theoretical approaches to this issue are keynesian consumption theory the life cycle permanent income hypothesis under rational expectations and the theory of the infinitely lived agent or altruistically linked consumers the theories differ in the extent to which they explain the observed consumer behavior and in their predictions regarding the effects of government policies on individual savings behavior for instance increased taxes higher nominal interest rates or an increase in the money

supply chain differentiation contract agriculture and farmers marketing preferences the case of sweet pepper in thailand there is an emerging body of literature analyzing how smallholder farmers in developing countries can be linked to modern supply chains however most of the available studies concentrate on farm and farmer characteristics failing to capture details of institutional arrangements between farmers and traders moreover farmers preferences have rarely been considered here we address these gaps by analyzing different market channels for sweet pepper in thailand using data from a survey and choice experiment with farmers we find that there is a general preference for marketing options that do not involve a contract additional provision of inputs and credit can increase the attractiveness of contracts yet the most important factor for farmers is to personally know the buyer they deal with which may be related to issues of trust some policy implications are discussed

supermarkets and agricultural labor demand in kenya a gendered perspective abstract many developing countries are experiencing a rapid expansion of supermarkets new supermarket procurement systems could affect farming patterns and wider rural development while previous studies have analyzed farm productivity and income effects possible employment effects have received much less attention special supermarket requirements may entail intensified farm production and post harvest handling thus potentially increasing demand for hired labor this could also have important gender implications because female and male workers are often hired for distinct farm operations building on data from a recent survey of vegetable farmers in kenya a double hurdle model of hired labor use is developed and estimated farmer participation in supermarket channels increases the likelihood of hiring labor by 20 and demand for hired labor by 61 a gender disaggregation shows that positive employment effects are especially pronounced for female laborers who often belong to the most vulnerable population groups rural employment generation can be an important vehicle for poverty reduction

using a discrete choice experiment to estimate health state utility values in this study we explored a novel application of the discrete choice experiment dce that resembles the time trade off tto task to estimate values on the health utility scale for the eq 5d the dce was tested in a survey alongside the tto in a sample of english speaking canadians recruited by a market research company the study found that the dce is able to derive logical and consistent values for health states valued on the full health dead scale the dce overcame some issues identified in the version of tto currently used to value eq 5d notably allowing for fewer data exclusions and incorporating values considered worse than dead without introducing a separate valuation procedure this has important implications for providing robust values that represent the preferences of all respondents

private enforcement capital and contract enforcement in transition economies the enforcement of contracts is necessary for efficient exchange and investment in economic activities there are many situations where public institutions are ineffective in enforcing contracts this is the case in economies in transition where public enforcement institutions themselves are being reformed under such conditions private mechanisms could enforce contracts external private enforcement is done by third parties e g strong arm private agents although such enforcement may be effective it may have unwanted externalities alternatively internal private enforcement can be done through the use of so called private enforcement capital i e private losses that result from breaching the contract these losses result directly from contract termination or non renewal and indirectly from reputational damage by designing contracts such that these private losses from contract breach outweigh potential benefits contracts can be made self enforcing in this article we first present a conceptual framework to interpret contracts and to analyze how the use of private enforcement capital can enforce contracts then we illustrate such internal private contract enforcement mechanisms with several case study examples of agri business contracting in transition countries where public enforcement fails

contracting out solutions political economy of contract farming in the indian punjab abstract this paper examines the rationale practice and problems of contract farming in vegetable crops in the agriculturally developed indian punjab which has faced the problem of sustainability of growth since the early 1980s it is found that agribusiness firms deal with relatively large producers and their contracts which are biased against the farmer perpetuate the existing problems of the farm sector such as high chemical input intensity and social differentiation contracting has however led to higher farm incomes and more employment for labor there seems to be an inherent contradiction in the objectives of the contracting parties and those of the local economy

subjective games and equilibria applying the concepts of nash bayesian and correlated equilibria to the analysis of strategic interaction requires that players possess objective knowledge of the game and opponents strategies such knowledge is often not available the proposed notions of subjective games and of subjective nash and correlated equilibria replace essential but unavailable objective knowledge by subjective assessments when playing a subjective game repeatedly subjective optimizers converge to a subjective equilibrium we apply this approach to some well known examples including single and multi person multi arm bandit games and repeated cournot oligopoly games journal of economic literature classification numbers c73 and c83

predictive testing of consumer choice models not subject to independence of irrelevant alternatives the probabilistic modeling of the relationship between objective or perceived characteristics of multiattribute alternatives and consumer choice is receiving increased attention in marketing and ot

persistent and transitory shocks learning and investment dynamics this paper introduces a new approach to understanding investment the distinctive feature of our approach is that shocks to the economic fundamentals have both persistent and transitory components and that firms must disentangle the persistent from the transitory shocks the model generates interesting dynamics simulations of the model show that the response of investment to changes in the interest rate can vary widely over time that the current response of investment depends on the sequence of past shocks that investment will respond less when the firm is confident about its beliefs and more when a change in economic fundamentals challenges the firm s beliefs and that investment booms and crashes may occur without any change in the true state of the economy simulations of the model also show that it captures many stylized facts of investment dynamics documented in previous empirical studies

heterogeneous preferences regarding global climate change we examine the structure of preferences for mitigating impacts of global climate change that will not occur during the lifetimes of most who are alive today because no market data exist for such distant markets a statedpreference approach is used the analysis is based on the random parameters logit model and the results indicate substantial heterogeneity in respondent preferences that mean willingness to pay is a significant and increasing function of the scope of the impact and provocatively that respondents have the same preferences over the two very different time horizons that we consider e examine the structure of preferences for mitigating impacts of global climate change that will not occur during the lifetimes of most who are alive today studies using current market data have estimated the potential costs of climate change on agriculture mendelsohn nordhaus shaw 1994 and on other aspects of measured production nordhaus 1994 but market data can not reveal the willingness of those currently alive to pay for measures to mitigate impacts that may not happen for 100 years or more there is serious public discussion involving diplomats at the highest levels about measures to mitigate emissions that would cost the united states alone 100 to 200 billion dollars annually therefore estimating the willingness of those currently alive to pay for mitigation measures is not a fanciful exercise but rather a crucial effort to determine how much mitigation should be undertaken it is the preferences of those alive today regarding acceptable levels of climate impacts and not the unknowable preferences of those who do not yet exist that will ultimately determine how much mitigation we pursue in the next quarter century as this question cannot be answered with market data we use the stated preference sp approach and elicit preferences for preventing climate change induced impacts a host of climate change impacts have been enumerated this study focuses on one type of impact that may be important but has received little attention from economists scientists have predicted that widespread ecosystem shifts may accompany changes in climate vemap 1995 ecosys tem shifts are likely to evolve slowly indicating that lost use values are likely to be small for those alive today yet the public may still be willing and asked to pay for mitigation measures that are designed to slow the transformation of ecosystems the current debate over climate change demon strates two things the first is that some people do care about long term changes that will never affect them or perhaps even their children the second is that preferences regarding the impacts of climate change are very heterogeneous as other members of the public appear much less concerned long term horizons combined with heterogeneous prefer ences makes ecosystem shifts a useful place to begin analyzing preferences for mitigating climate change im pacts a stated preference survey was designed that asked respondents to choose their most preferred program to reduce ecological impacts from a set menu of five or six different programs the programs varied in terms of costs the degree of ecosystem change and in the mitigation method four different menus provided to each respondent yielded four distinct valuation responses section ii de scribes the random parameters logit model for repeated choices that allows for a flexible correlation structure based on heterogeneous preferences the ecosystem change and the stated preference survey are discussed in section iii in section iv we estimate the random parameters model and estimate the willingness to pay to prevent various levels of ecosystem change section v concludes with a discussion of how the scope of the impact preference heterogeneity and the time horizon affect willingness to pay

supermarkets farm household income and poverty insights from kenya summary the expansion of supermarkets in developing countries may have important implications for poverty and rural development while previous studies have compared farm profits between participants and non participants in supermarket channels wider income effects have hardly been analyzed moreover most existing studies do not account for structural differences between the two groups we address these issues by using endogenous switching regression and building on a survey of vegetable farmers in kenya participation in supermarket channels is associated with a 48 gain in average household income which also contributes to poverty reduction to realize these benefits on a larger scale will require institutional support

on the concavity of the consumption function at least since keynes 1935 many economists have had the intuition that the marginal propensity to consume out of wealth declines as wealth increases nonetheless standard perfect certainty and certainty equivalent versions of intertemporal optimizing models of consumption imply a marginal propensity to consume that is unrelated to the level of household wealth we show that adding income uncertainty to the standard optimization problem induces a concave consumption function in which as keynes suggested the marginal propensity to consume out of wealth or transitory income declines with the level of wealth