the greenhouse effect damages costs and abatement the buildup of so called greenhouse gases in the atmosphere co2 in particular appears to be having an adverse impact on the global climate this paper briefly reviews current expectations with regard to physical and biological effects their potential costs to society and likely costs of abatement for a worst case scenario it is impossible to assess in economic terms the full range of possible non linear synergistic effects in the most favorable although not necessarily likely case of slow paced climate change however it seems likely that the impacts are within the affordable range at least in the industrialized countries of the world in the third world the notion of affordability is of doubtful relevance making the problem of quantitative evaluation almost impossible we tentatively assess the lower limit of quantifiable climate induced damages at 30 to 35 per ton of co2 equivalent worldwide with the major damages being concentrated in regions most adversely affected by sea level rise the non quantifiable environmental damages are also significant and should by no means be disregarded the costs and benefits of 1 reducing cfc use and 2 reducing fossil fuel consumption as a means of abatement are considered in some detail this strategy has remarkably high indirect benefits in terms of reduced air pollution damage and even direct cost savings to consumers the indirect benefits of reduced air pollution and its associated health and environmental effects from fossil fuel combustion in the industrialized countries range from 20 to 60 per ton of co2 eliminated in addition there is good evidence that modest e g 25 reductions in co2 emissions may be achievable by the u s and by implication for other countries by a combination of increased energy efficiency and restructuring that would permit simultaneous direct economic benefits savings to energy consumers of the order of 50 per ton of co2 saved a higher level of overall emissions reduction possibly approaching 50 could probably be achieved at little or not net cost by taking advantage of these savings we suggest the use of taxes on fossil fuel extraction or a carbon tax as a reasonable way of inducing the structural changes that would be required to achieve significant reduction in energy use and co2 emissions to minimize the economic burden and create a political constituency in support of the approach we suggest the substitution of resource based taxes in general for other types of taxes on labor income real estate or trade that are now the main sources of government revenue while it is conceded that it would be difficult to calculate the optimal tax on extractive resources we do not think this is a necessary prerequisite to policy making in fact we note that the existing tax system has never been optimized according to theoretical principles and is far from optimal by any reasonable criteria

interest groups and the rise and decline of growth interest groups are known to exert a sclerotic impact on mean growth a la olson 1982 it is unknown however what impact if any groups exert on the volatility of growth an important hindrance to development in this article we first consider what impact we should expect olson groups to have on the volatility of growth we then estimate the relation between groups and growth volatility in a cross country panel using system generalized method of moments the findings indicate that groups are associated with growth stability in addition the findings suggest that interest groups may be a source of the stability observed in democracies

energy price shocks and medium term business cycles abstract energy price shocks pose sudden challenges to economies this paper examines how oil price shocks have influenced the u s economy over the last decades and especially focuses on the productivity slowdown in the years following an oil price shock we extend the existing literature by considering medium term business cycles which consist of high frequency components conventional business cycles up to 8 years and medium frequency components 8 50 years we find that the medium frequency consequences of energy price shocks are considerable and explain a significant part of the productivity slowdown

is there an inflation productivity trade off some evidence from the manufacturing sector in greece this paper examines the effect of inflation on total factor productivity growth tfp using time series data for every two digit greek manufacturing industries in order to do the above a translog flexible cost function is estimated and used to decompose tfp growth into scale economies inflation and technical change the advantage of estimating a very general and flexible cost function is that it allows us for the first time to examine empirically a large number of significant relationships between tfp growth and economies of scale inflation and technical change the main conclusion drawn from this analysis is that inflation reduces tfp growth in a way which is sizeable furthermore using standard causality test the direction of causality between inflation and tfp growth was tested at the manufacturing level

the productivity puzzle abstract the productivity puzzle is the unexplained drop in productivity growth rates that began circa 1970 when standard productivity measures are adjusted for employer incentives for labor hoarding approximately 10 of this drop is explained

inflation and social consensus in the seventies it is widely believed that the two oil price shocks of the i 970s played a major role in the increase in inflation in industrial countries while this hypothesis is consistent with the timing of changes in inflation at the global level it seems to break down when applied to individual countries cross sectionally for example over the period i973 9 switzerland had an average inflation rate of 4 7 while in neighbouring italy inflation averaged i5 6 over the same period furthermore inflation in the pre opec period i97i 2 was actually higher in switzerland than in italy it seems that a supply shock explanation of inflation in the seventies also requires an explanation of why different countries responded so differently to a similar set of shocks at the world level the purpose of this paper is to offer such an explanation and to test the hypothesis with a cross sectional equation accounting for differences in average inflation rates over the period i973 9 in eighteen oecd countries this time period includes the year of the first opec shock i 973 and the following six years up to the time of the second opec shock the hypothesis to be tested is set in the framework of a model similar to that of brunner et al i 980 the key features of the brunner model are that the adjustment of real wage expectations is subject to lags and that labour supply is positively related to the difference between the perceived real wage and the expected or target real wage given these two assumptions a negative supply shock gives rise to a period of stagflation whose intensity will be greater the slower is the speed of adjustment of real wage expectations the model of this paper extends the brunner model in three ways first across countries the speed of adjustment of real wage expectations or targets is assumed to depend positively on the degree of social consensus as proxied negatively by an indicator of average long run strike activity second the model allows for the possibility of inflation inertia or systematically incorrect inflation expectations as well as a sluggish adjustment of real wage expectations third the model incorporates the hypothesis that money supply growth will vary across countries according to variations in inflationary pressures as perceived by governments the first section of the paper provides a discussion of the rationale for the key proposition regarding strikes and social consensus as well as a brief discussion of the role of wage bargaining institutions section ii develops a theoretical model which yields a reduced form cross sectional equation relating the average i 973 9

interest groups and economic performance some new evidence mancur olson s theory of the decline of nations is path breaking in political economics it has been tested cross sectionally in numerous empirical studies we survey the existing results briefly with a special focus on studies using the number of lobbies as an exogenous variable using data from the period 1973 2006 we then present the field s first time series analysis of the effects of the number of interest groups on the german lobby list and macroeconomic performance gauged in terms of economic growth and inflation the number of interest groups as a proxy for their influence is shown to have an important impact on macro variables interest group activity significantly leads to a decline in the growth rate and a rise in the inflation rate

mixed risk aversion abstract we analyze the class of increasing utility functions exhibiting all derivatives of alternating sign this property that we call mixed risk aversion is satisfied by the utility functions most commonly used in financial economics the utility functions displaying mixed risk aversion can be expressed as mixtures of exponential functions we characterize stochastic dominance and we find conditions for both mutual aggravation and mutual amelioration of risks when agents are mixed risk averse finally the analysis of the distribution function describing a mixed utility allows one to characterize the behaviour of its indexes of risk aversion and to discuss its implications for portfolio selection journal of economic literature classification numbers d81 g11

third world cities the changing national settlement system this is a review of recent literature on trends in urbanization in developing countries the author examines the decline in the pace of urbanization in the middle east and latin america changes in migration related to changes in spatial structure a trend toward a more polycentric form of metropolitan development around some major urban centers a decline in the pace of metropolitan expansion associated with economic recession and the failure of regional policy to affect urbanization trends annotation

testing the implications of the olson hypothesis considerable attention has been paid to the hypothesis advanced by olson that accumulations of interest groups build up over time and retard economic performance most previous tests of this hypothesis have been based on comparisons of growth rates in this paper it is argued that comparisons of income levels yield a superior test strong forms of the olson hypothesis in which shocks such as revolution and war yield positive benefits are rejected using this test

classical unemployment accommodation policies and the adjustment of real wages a model of wage formation and stabilization policy in economies with strong trade unions is developed the analysis provides a theoretical underpinning for the assertion that accommodation policies may cause wage inflation and ultimately reduce employment various methods of accomplishing a real wage adjustment are discussed i a policy of complete nonaccommodation 2 continued accommodation policies but with lower employment targets 3 social contracts and 4 tax based incomes policies tip

the recent slowdown of productivity growth the slowdown of productivity growth in the developed countries during the seventies will in this paper be viewed as a combined effect of three closely interacting forces i a long term deterioration in the efficiency and flexibility of some basic mechanisms of the economic and political systems of these countries ii the fading away of a number of uniquely favourable circumstances for productivity growth during the fifties and sixties and iii the exposure of these economies to unusually severe macroeconomic disturbances in the seventies careful inspection of time series with attempted modifications for cyclical factors suggests that there was hardly any general slowdown of productivity growth among developed countries before approximately i972 4 1 as we know the situation is radically different since then labour productivity growth per year for the entire national economy gdp per man hour seems to have fallen between the periods i960 73 and i973 9 by about i 2 percentage points in the united states 45 by about 24 percentage points in western europe2 45 and by about 5 9 percentage points in japan 6o table i see also fig i the slowdown was of about the same size in the business and manufacturing sectors see table i to calculate the extent of the slowdown of total factor productivity growth is of course a much more hazardous matter to which i will return later if just the various system changes and the fading away of the uniquely favourable factors had been the dominating forces behind the productivity growth slowdown we would expect the slowdown to have been gradual rather than abrupt as it turned out to be this abruptness as well as its timing makes the dramatic macroeconomic disturbances around i972 4 a prime suspect when looking for the villain behind the productivity growth slowdown indeed it is a basic hypothesis of the paper that these macroeconomic disturbances were not only by themselves strongly unfavourable for productivity growth but that they also revealed and accentuated the gradual deterioration of the

energy price shocks and productivity growth in us and uk manufacturing because sustained changes in the trend of productivity growth are so very important for people s long run economic welfare the dramatic productivity growth slowdown of the 1970 s and early 1980 s has been the focus of much analysis and discussion for some observers it was much more than coincidence that the oil price shocks of 1973 74 accompanied the sharp slowdowns in traditionally measured productivity growth not only in the united states and the united kingdom but throughout the industrialised world however establishing quantifying and explaining sig nificant linkages between energy price shocks and productivity growth has proved to be most difficult traditional and time honoured relationships involving productivity growth have all seemed incapable of explaining this slowdown for example edward denison author of several widely cited productivity studies has concluded that energy had essentially no role in explaining the productivity growth slowdown and that moreover what happened is to be blunt a mystery 1979 p 4

government capital and private output in the united states additional evidence abstract aggregate production functions for private output are estimated from annual u s data for the period 1948 1985 the estimates indicate government capital has an important positive effect on private output the effect of state and local governments capital is large and significant whereas the effect of federal capital appears small and statistically insignificant

burden sharing in a greenhouse egalitarianism and sovereignty reconciled the allocation of emission entitlements across countries is the single most controversial issue in international climate policy extreme positions within the policy debate range from entitlements based on current emission patterns sovereignty to entitlements based on equal per capita allocations egalitarianism this paper shows that gradual convergence from sovereignty towards egalitarianism could provide a pragmatic solution to the equity debate when combined with international emissions trading the convergence approach stands out for offering the developing countries substantial incentives for participation in the international greenhouse gas abatement effort without imposing excessive burdens on the industrialized countries

the assessment productivity and competitiveness in british manufacturing this issue of the oxford review examines productivity and competitiveness in british manufac turing the simplest and most widely used measure of productivity is output per head from this definition sprout at once the horns of a dilemma for an economy facing unemployment on the present scale for a given rate of expansion of output the higher the rate of productivity growth the greater the decline in employment or at least the smaller its growth on the other hand in an economy open to international competition a high rate of productivity growth relative to that of other countries is the long term key to achieving the favourable international competitive po sition necessary to sustain growth and a low level of unemployment

rent seeking distributional coalitions taxes relative prices and economic growth the results clearly indicate that much of the considerable variation in the pace and pattern of economic growth between the various american states is explainable by institutional arrangements amenable to revisions through public policy the findings suggest that long run economic growth would be best served by constraining distributional coalitions be it through constitutional restraints e g balanced budget amendments the item veto statutory changes e g subjecting coalitions like labor unions to the antitrust laws or some other means e g labor and capital fleeing distributional coalitions such as in the movement of workers and plants to nonunion areas

the demand for capital labor and energy in european manufacturing industry before and after the oil price shocks the price and substitution elasticities for factor inputs capital labor fuels and electricity are estimated for total manufacturing industry on the basis of a pooled crosscountry time series analysis for nine west european countries the impact of the economic disturbances in the 1970s on the price sensitivity of demand is analyzed by estimating a translog cost function for two separate periods 1960 72 and 1973 80 hicks neutral technical change is rejected for both periods the results indicate some quite significant changes in the elasticities over the two periods

political regulation of mexico s oil boom the policy choices of wealth abstract firm estimates have been given of the oil gas and gas liquid reserves that mexico is likely to develop in the next decade or more but the decision has yet to be made as to how fast and how far its energy resources should be developed one faction including the pemex technocrats believe that foreign capital should be utilized with all speed to accelerate mexico s export of energy products especially to the us another group argues that the development of domestic and agrarian enterprises should be granted a higher priority the resolution of the debate and the recovery of the world oil market will determine whether mexico will become one of the richest or the most unstable of the oil exporters in the third world

distributional coalitions state strength and economic growth toward a comprehensive theory of economic development high performing economies in the asia pacific region together with only mediocre economic development in latin america prompts the question of what explains differential economic growth rates among developing countries combining a statist perspective with olson s theory of interest group formation this research hypothesizes that nations with weak distributional coalitions will more likely experience high growth and state intervention will be effective using a longitudinal research design this secondary analysis involves a comparative and interactive examination of eight asian pacific and twelve latin american countries by considering the role of the state in interaction with distributional coalitions in society the results indicate that approximately two thirds of the variance in national economic growth is explained

state business cycles and their relationship to the national cycle structural and institutional determinants during business cycles state and regional incomes fluctuate in the same direction as national income in some states and regions income fluctuates more than the national average in other states and regions it fluctuates less although no general explanation for differences in business cycles across states exists an influential set of explanations focuses on differences in price flexibility gordon 2 3 has discussed the employment implications of sticky prices and made some international comparisons of unemployment rates his results imply that decreased price flexibility leads to increased variability of income and employment olson 6 7 and colander and olson 1 have suggested that differences in state unemployment rates arise from differences in price flexibility differences in price flexibility in turn originate in differences in structural characteristics and institutions 2 if a state s structure and institutions allow prices to be flexible most of the adjustment to changes in aggregate demand will be made by prices rather than output if a state s institutions tend to enforce price rigidity most of the adjustment to changes in aggregate demand will be made by output rather than prices the absence of acceptable state price indices prevents direct tests of the hypothesis that differences in price flexibility explain differences in income variability across states the inability to measure price flexibility by state turns out not to be a serious problem however because we are primarily interested in what determines the magnitude of fluctuations in state income institutional and structural differences across states lead to the differences in price flexibility that cause differences in the business cycle price flexibility is merely the transmission mechanism moreover it may not be the only transmission mechanism structural and institutional factors may affect state business cycles through a host of channels we will therefore focus directly on the relationship between structures and institutions and state business cycles by adopting such a procedure we may miss a particular transmission variable but we will be more likely to identify the total effect of structure and institutions on performance institutional and structural variables will be compared across states rather than regions an attractive alternative we used states rather than regions because states embody the political

job search and cyclical unemployment a model economy is described that integrates job search and signal extraction analysis equilibrium differs from search models without signal extraction in that even with a fixed real sector unemployment fluctuates stochastically it differs from standard signal extraction models because search introduces persistence in fact unemployment follows a second order difference equation with coefficient that are functions of current and lagged values of the stochastic shocks thus the model has the potential to mimic actual business cycle data despite the fact that the underlying shocks are independently and identically distributed policy implications are discussed

the catch up factor in postwar economic growth the catch up factor in postwar economic growth presidential address to the western economic association june 21 1989 i this talk is about two of the central concerns of our time one is the pronounced slowdown of productivity growth that has persisted in the whole of the industrialized world since the early seventies or late sixties about two decades the other is the much slower rate or productivity advance in the united states than in other industrialized countries than has been apparent during almost the whole postwar period about four decades 1 i shall argue that these two developments are connected and that both can be better understood if we think of them as implications of a process of international productivity catch up and convergence that is in certain conditions natural and foreseeable and in a long term sense desirable i mean desirable not only for the countries that are catching up that is obvious i mean desirable also for the old leader that is for the united states as well needless to say i do not contend that a tendency to convergence is the whole story behind the two developments and the anxieties they have caused but i believe it is a large part of it 1 ii let me begin by asking why and what conditions a tendency to convergence is as i say in the nature of things consider two countries otherwise similar but one is a productivity leader the other a laggard there are at least five reasons why the laggard will have a stronger potential for productivity growth than the leader first as the leader s capital stock turns over its embodied technological progress is limited by the advance of knowledge over the lifetime of its capital instruments but a laggard can make a larger leap by substituting modern state of the art equipment for instruments that were obsolete even when originally installed the same applies to modernization in disembodied technology that is when a laggard adopts a leader s advanced practices in the organization of production and management secondly laggards typically suffer from relatively low levels of capital intensity on this account as well as because new capital means a large technological leap the inducement to invest tends to be high so there is a potential for rapid progress by capital accumulation edward f denison 1967 table 21 28 robert e lipsey and irving b kravis 1987 edward n wolff 1987 table 31 thirdly the level of schooling in laggard countries is typically relatively low and in some degree obsolete in content so there is an opportunity for relatively rapid advance by the extension and modernization of education maddison 1982 table 5 7 denison 1967 table 21 28 fourthly in laggards one usually finds a relatively large fraction of partially or wholly redundant workers attached to farming and petty trade this is an opportunity for relatively large gains from the better allocation of workers denison 1967 table 21 28 fifthly the chance for rapid productivity advance along all these channels means a chance for rapid growth in aggregate output and size of markets which brings a productivity bonus from the economies of scale this is the simple core of the tendency to convergence and if that were all there was to it we should expect to see laggards always and everywhere advance faster than a leader rates of productivity growth across countries in any period would be an inverse function of their initial levels of productivity and national levels of productivity would converge towards the leader s by the same token as the process of convergence went on the gaps separating laggards from leaders would become smaller and rates of growth would decline the catch up effect supporting growth would be self limiting weakening steadily as catch up proceeded

the productivity slowdown the oil shocks and the real cycle f ive facts stand out about economic performance in the united states since world war ii the first is that for most of the postwar period the u s has had a slower rate of economic growth than the other major developed democracies except great britain and much lower rates of growth than germany japan and italy the gap between the growth of per capita income of the united states and comparable countries has however tended to diminish over time and the united states has lately grown at about the same rate as most other developed countries the second outstanding fact is that the united states has fallen far behind in many mass production industries in which it used to lead the world whereas it is ahead of other nations in many new and especially high technology industries in automobiles steel tires household appliances and earth moving and farm equipment for example u s production has fallen dramatically in relation to output in most comparable countries and the country has become a net importer of most such products by contrast in newer industries such as computers jet aircraft sophisticated weaponry and high technology in general the united states is often dominant both as producer and exporter the third outstanding fact is that most of the older heartland of american industry roughly the area north and east of an arc drawn from baltimore to st louis to milwaukee has declined dramatically in comparison with the south and the west this change in regional fortunes has been due in large part to migration motivated by differences in economic prospects from the declining to the advancing

resource based industry in boom downswing and liberalization mexico abstract mexico s oil windfall was advantageously later and smaller than that of most oil exporters but it was still absorbed too quickly inflation accelerated the exchange rate appreciated and diversification into competitive non oil tradeables like resource based industry rbi was retarded too much rbi investment was channelled through state enterprises whose performance deteriorated it relied heavily on the protected domestic market which fell short of projections excess capacity and inadequate revenues then made rbi vulnerable as mexico rapidly liberalized its economy in the late 1980s

institutional technology and economic growth an endogenous model of constitutional changes and economic growth links the temporal decline in private market returns when technology is constant with the returns to rule changes realized in a political market there is a steady state constitutional setting in which all rule changes have been incorporated that is analytically equivalent to the neoclassical steady state as in the neoclassical model private sector technological progress postpones the steady state to the extent the original constitutional setting promotes innovation the evolutionary process toward the steady state is delayed the model yields a theory of revolution based on forces leading to the adoption of inefficient changes in the constitutional setting

determinants of the increase in the number of interest groups in western democracies theoretical considerations and evidence from 21 oecd countries mancur olson s theory of institutionalsclerosis is based on the notion that thenumber of interest groups within a countryincreases with the duration of itspolitical stability the following paperargues that the increase in the number ofinterest groups over time could also be aconcomitant of economic development theoretically both explanations provetenable an empirical cross sectionalregression analysis using data from 21oecd countries finds no evidence for asignificant impact of the duration ofpolitical stability on the number ofinterest groups a significantly positiveeffect is however reported for the degreeof economic development

oil and the macroeconomy since the 1970s economists have long been intrigued by empirical evidence that suggests that oil price shocks may be closely related to macroeconomic performance this interest dates back to the 1970s the 1970s were a period of growing dependence on imported oil unprecedented disruptions in the global oil market and poor macroeconomic performance in the united states thus it was natural to suspect a causal relationship from oil prices to u s macroeconomic aggregates since then a large body of work has accumulated that purports to establish this link on theoretical grounds and to provide empirical evidence in its support we do not attempt a comprehensive survey of this literature but rather provide an idiosyncratic synthesis of what we view as the key issues in this debate and the insights gained over the last 30 years the timing seems right for such an account although the experience of the 1970s continues to play an important role in discussions of the link between oil and the macroeconomy there have been a number of new oil price shocks since the 1970s notably the 1986 collapse of oil prices and the 2000 boom in oil prices as well as the oil price increases associated with the 1990 1991 gulf war and the 2003 iraq war given this richer case history we are arguably in a better position than two decades ago to distinguish the idiosyncratic features of each oil crisis from the systematic effects increases in oil prices have been held responsible for recessions periods of excessive inflation reduced productivity and lower economic growth in this paper we review the arguments supporting such views first we highlight some of the conceptual difficulties in assigning a central role to oil price shocks in explaining

growth wealth and the natural rate is europe s jobs crisis a growth crisis abstract the effect of faster technical progress is studied in our labour turnover model of the natual rate of unemployment in its closed economy version the model implies that in the limit as the steady growth rate is approached the increase in the rate of progress is neutral for the natural unemployment rate its effects are completely offset by the equal increase in the rate of interest it induces however of two small open economies having the same technology level at some date the one where technical progress has always been and always will be faster will have the lower wealth relative to its wage and a lower wage rate relative to future wage rates both effects operate to reduce the natural rate of unemployment whether this theory based hypothesis will be confirmed empirically is a question needing extensive study but a quick comparison of the g7 countries confirms that the proportionate increase of the unemployment rate in recent decades tended to be greater the more pronounced the productivity slowdown

international technological knowledge differences and economic growth comparisons usa versus west germany and sweden versus norway 1963 1988 the main interest in this paper is governed by the methodology for making evolutive growth comparisons in the international context the paper analysis differences in levels and changes of these levels of aggregate output between the above mentioned countries in terms of differences in factors input and levels of technological knowledge for the period 1963 1988 sources of economic growth in each country are also examined on an annual and average annual basis th conclusion is that technological knowledge differences between countries hold a central role in explaining output differences between them a slight overtake of the technological lead is observed in comparing sweden and norway between 1977 and 1985 when a recovery by sweden begining in 1986 is detected a certain part of the output differences between the us and west germany is explaining by the differences in technology between these two countries however capital intensity in the us is found to be almost double in 1988 and this accounts fo

the impact of bad writing in economics we find significant style differences between articles written by economists for their professional journals and articles by the same economists in the wall street journal we find no evidence that style influences the professional success of economists which suggests that the private rewards to improving the quality of writing are low indeed each community of scholars has probably adopted a professionally correct writing style from which its members diverge little however scholars do alter their rhetorical style to communicate effectively with audiences other than the professional community this suggests that intra and inter group written communication by economists is efficient

trade policy in mexico this evaluation examines mexican trade policies applied over three well defined periods during the last quarter century and makes recommendations for the future each discussion begins with a description of the macroeconomic background and then analyzes trade policy developments of the period with further attention given to industrial policy measures changes in mexican exports and imports and their contribution to industrial growth are discussed mexico s current economic difficulties stem from 1956 when increases in public consumption contributed to inflation and to the appreciation of the peso in real terms under fixed exchange rates the overvaluation of the exchange rate led to the application of protectionist measures which discriminated against exports the situation was aggravated by excessively expansionary policies which necessitated substantial foreign borrowing and exacerbated protectionist pressures this paper makes recommendations for remedying macroeconomic disequilibria reducing price distortions and reforming trade policy with a view to moving towards an outward oriented development strategy future growth will depend however on increased investments particularly in export activities that may be encouraged by appropriate incentives

explaining differences in state growth catching up versus olson in this paper we have tested various explanations for differences in rates of economic growth across states we found no evidence consistent with olson s hypothesis that differences in state age a proxy for the strength of special interest groups can explain differences in state growth furthermore our results indicate that a regression containing only initial income explains most of the variation in the growth of state income in sum a good part of the more rapid growth of southern and other fast growing states is simply a convergence to the national average this convergence is an expected result of basic economic theory given free trade in goods and factors our results are however not necessarily a rejection of the olson hypothesis it may well be that the hypothesis should only be applied to comparisons between nation states not to comparisons between political divisions of the same nation state the institutional and political similarities of the american states may swamp the differences and make the olson hypothesis inapplicable the tendencies cited by olson may indeed be present in the american economy but their differential effect is much too small to explain any of the variation in economic performance across states

a technology gap approach to why growth rates differ abstract this paper contains a discussion and test of the technology gap approach to development and growth the basic hypotheses of the theory are tested on pooled cross sectional and time series data for 25 industrial countries for the period 1960 1983 the sample includes in addition to 19 oecd countries 6 of the most important industrial economies from the non oecd area the findings of the paper confirm that there exists a close correlation between the level of economic development measured as gdp per capita and the level of technological development measured through r d or patent statistics furthermore for the group of 25 countries as a whole technology gap models of economic growth are found to explain a large part of the actual differences in growth rates both between countries and periods as expected both the scope for imitation growth in innovative activity and efforts to narrow the gap investment appear as powerful explanatory factors of economic growth however when the non oecd countries and later usa and japan are removed from the sample the explanatory power of the technology variables especially growth in innovative activity diminishes

energy prices and the aggregate production function abstract this paper tests the hypothesis that the effects of increases and decreases in relative energy prices on output are symmetrical alternative ratchet specifications are embedded in an aggregate production function for private sector output and estimated using us data the major finding is that the relationship between relative energy prices and output is highly asymmetrical increases in relative energy prices above previous peak levels have a substantial deleterious effect on output decreases in relative energy prices and increases below the previous peak have no effect on output

monotone transformation of utility some particular cases abstract in this paper we develop for two particular utility functions a technique that generalizes the fundamental work of pratt on a more risk averse function to the nth order of absolute risk aversion

raw materials profits and the productivity slowdown a factor price frontier framework is used to clarify the analogy of an increase decrease in raw material prices with autonomous technological regress progress factor price profiles are estimated for the manufacturing sector of the united states the united kingdom germany and japan the production model in conjunction with estimates obtained from the factor price frontier attributes much of the slowdown in manufacturing productivity to the rise in relative raw material prices part of the apparent productivity riddle may have to do with the use of double deflated national accounting measures of value added which have an inherent measurement bias

why economic reforms fail in the soviet system a property rights based approach jan winiecki why do economic reforms fail in soviet type systems despite the obvious interest of ruling groups in improving the performance of their ailing economies the author applies a property rights based analysis stressing modes of rent maximization by ruling groups as a crucial explanatory variable party apparatchiks and economic bureaucrats particularly benefit from persistent interference in the economic sphere and consequently are most interested in maintaining the status quo the author surveys the impact of these motivations on the content of economic reforms outlines the strategies of counterreformers and predicts the future of reforms in soviet type economies 1 introduction in analyzing the disequilibrium characteristics of contemporary western economies mancur olson 1982 1984a 1984b agrees with the neoclassical macroeconomists in finding that given the tendencies of markets to clear and given the rational expectations of economic agents any disequilibrium indicates that all mutually advantageous transactions have not been consummated having made this point however he asks what can make agents ignore the potential gains from unconsummated transactions and turns his attention toward the structure of incentives and thus of institutions and policies olson insists and rightly so that a satisfactory static and dynamic macroeconomic theory has to explain who among key actors has the incentive to generate economic growth and equilibrate the economy and who does not furthermore no government even an authoritarian one has an incentive to generate serious recessions or disequilibria olson 1984a 637 writes that even in dictatorial systems the dictator has an incentive to make the economy of the country he controls work better since this will generate more tax receipts he can use as he pleases and usually also reduce dissent olson s arguments about incentives institutions and disequilibria offer an ideal basis for an inquiry into why reforms fail in soviet type economies stes in olson s theories of incentives the old roman principle of criminal law cui prodest who gained is applied to modem economies and the results suggest that contrary to widespread opinion it is not necessarily the small but powerful group of high and highest leaders that stands to gain most in terms of power and privilege from the preservation of the existing order a powerful political elite could satisfy its desires for both power and privilege through an alternative undemocratic system one which involves authoritarian don ts rather than totalitarian do s in that perspective the inefficient system of economic control typical in stes involving centrally planned production goals and input rationing would not be a condition sine qua non of an authoritarian solution since totalitarian command and control systems persist however one must seek groups other than the powerful and privileged few which have incentives to resist reforms and keep the economy inefficient the following sections identify the membership and motives of groups having strong incentives to keep the stes inefficient and prevent successful i e market oriented reforms we show how those groups operate and analyze their effects on the economic performance of their countries first the incentives for these groups to prevent decentralized management in the state sector are spelled out then their incentives to prevent the expansion of the more efficient private sector are outlined third having identified who benefits from the status quo and why the paper discusses when and how market oriented reforms are aborted limited or reversed by those who stand to gain from the reforms failure the last two sections consider the prospects of current attempts at economic reform in three specific countries poland the ussr and china and the prospects for economic reform in stes more generally

unemployment and labor market reform a contract theoretic approach why do many democracies fail to reform their labor market institutions to answer this question we study the feasibility of reforms that include compensation to insiders for the removal of labor market regulations under asymmetric information a reformer who wants to buy the approval of voters has to pay them an informational rent in addition to the pure costs of compensation that would arise under symmetric information in this setting unemployment may be constrained pareto efficient labor market reforms may fail politically because none of the reform packages proposed wins the approval of a majority of voters we also discuss the role of capital taxation in a reform program jel classification d70 e61 j68

institutional analysis and the resource curse in developing countries abstract the present article examines the recent advances reported in the literature regarding the mechanisms underlying the resource curse in developing countries by analyzing the rule of law index we investigated how the institutions responsible for allocating hydrocarbon royalties can help minimize the effects of the resource curse we used a qualitative methodology based on case studies the results show that evidence of legal violations on the part of these institutions and the lack of tools in resource rich developing countries to uphold basic social and economic rights are associated with the resource curse our findings suggest that strengthening the institutions closer monitoring of oil revenue allocations and public participation can help to alleviate the resource curse

the resilience of the indian economy to rising oil prices as a validation test for a global energy environment economy cge model this paper proposes to test the global hybrid computable general equilibrium model imaclim r against macroeconomic data to do so it compares the modeled and observed responses of the indian economy to the rise of oil price during the 2003 2006 period the objective is twofold first to disentangle the various mechanisms and policies at play in india s economy response to rising oil prices and second to validate our model as a tool capable of reproducing short run statistical data with default parametrization the model predicts a significant decrease in the indian growth rate that is not observed however this discrepancy is corrected if three additional mechanisms identified by the international monetary fund are introduced namely the rise in exports of refined oil products the imbalance of the trade balance allowed by large capital inflows and the incomplete pass through of the oil price increase to indian customers this work is a first step toward model validation and provides interesting insights on the modeling methodology relevant to represent an economy s response to a shock as well as on how short term mechanisms and policy action can smooth the negative impacts of energy price shocks or climate policies

california shows the future of electricity production in the single market in california pressure from industrial and commercial ratepayers has initiated liberalization in electricity production this us experience is important because the plausibility arguments against liberalization may reappear in the european debate on the single market

industrial policy reform in six large newly industrializing countries the resource curse thesis abstract all six large newly industrializing countries nics in this study favored an autarkic industrial policy aip in the 1950s aip required however the rapid build up of heavy and chemical industry hci which caused foreign exchange shortages if the hci matured slowly this is because the import and subsidy demands of the growing protected hci sector became too burdensome for the competitive primary sector whose rents shrank in relative importance as the economic structure evolved the two least well endowed nics abandoned aip early in favor of a competitive industrial policy cip which relied on labor intensive exports to earn foreign exchange and resulted in rapid economic growth in contrast the resource bonus of the four best endowed nics sustained aip longer but the longer aip lasted the harder it became to reform and the slow maturing hci sector adversely affected economic growth in this way the resource bonus became a curse rather than a blessing

increases in prudence and increases in risk aversion abstract this paper determines necessary and sufficient conditions for increases in absolute prudence to lead to increases in risk aversion and vice versa

take the money and run political turnover rent seeking and economic growth abstract we find a negative and significant relationship between gubernatorial turnover and u s state economic growth although our finding of an inverse relationship between growth and political instability may seem to contradict olson s 1982a famous hypothesis regarding the growth retarding nature of political stability such constitutional political changes were not primarily what olson had in mind we argue that enhanced political turnover is associated with more rent seeking since payoffs to focusing on special interest redistributive policies vs general growth enhancing ones are greater for less durable regimes therefore we interpret our evidence as supportive of olson s broader argument concerning the negative affect of rent seeking behavior on growth

managing an oil bonanza an analysis of alternative mexican export policies abstract recent exploration in mexico has turned up oilfields nearly as large as those in the middle east thus proper management of its oil bonanza has become a burning economic and political issue increased oil production and revenues today must be traded off against the resulting reductions in oil production and revenues in the future the present study employs the eta macro energy economy model of manne to quantify those tradeoffs given existing uncertainties about the extent of the mexican resource base and the future of the world oil price there appears to be no strong economic incentive for mexico to increase its level of oil exports from its current level of slightly over one million bbl day to beyond about 3 million bbl day during the 1980s

the stock market and the productivity slowdown international evidence extending baily s model of the productivity slowdown to the manufacturing sectors of five other countries we find that a decline in the growth of capital services reflected in declines in the stock market can explain much of the 1973 1978 decline in productivity abroad as well as in the united states we also show however that the stock market declines often preceded the declines in productivity growth and the model is less successful when the sample period is extended through 1981

the tullock bastiat hypothesis inequality transfer curve and the natural distribution of income conventional wisdom has long held that public policy has worked to reduce income inequality in contemporary america or that at least it has the real capability of achieving that goal thurow 1971 for example the evidence is strong that there was a pronounced decline in measured inequality during the 1930s and 1940s a period of greatly increased governmental intervention on both the tax and expenditure side designed to reduce inequality lindert and williamson 1980 increased government expenditures went or so it was argued largely to alleviate the plight of the poor and thus greater federal public aid expenditures brought about greater equality similarly it commonly has been maintained that higher and more progressive federal taxes serve to further reduce inequality in america there is another view however which holds that governmental intervention in markets may have a different impact while he believes the modern welfare state has clearly reduced incomes for the extremely wealthy tullock 1983 has suggested that many government transfers are not transfers from higher to lower income groups but rather transfers within the middle class allowing at least the possibility that governmental transfer activity might not in the aggregate increase income equality in any significant manner perhaps the citizenry are interested in promoting income equality but only to some limited extent in that regard evidence compiled by lebergott 1975 is interesting since the midnineteenth century there has been a remarkable rough constancy in government payment levels to the poor relative to wage levels of common laborers to be sure there have been some periods of increased support for the poor such as during the heyday of the war on poverty in the late 1960s but as tullock has expressed in private correspondence with us the body politic has spasms of feeling more than usually charitable and then goes back to normal the conventional wisdom had previously been questioned by reynolds and smolensky 1977 and for that matter by bastiat 1848 1964 who said that the state produces more poverty than it cures along similar lines lebergott 1975 15 speaking of poor elderly americans observed they are not impoverished in spite of the american capitalist welfare state they are in poverty because of it

gatt and environmental policy reform discussion agricultural protectionism in developed countries such as the united states and those in the european community ec involves subsidized production which has led to excess global supply and to low farm output prices in response the purported goal of the uruguay round of the gatt negotiations is to increase global efficiency in agricultural production and trade by eliminating distortionary subsidy programs additionally gatt opens the door for more general policy reform with an explicit focus on the environment papers by abler and shortle and by just and rausser address how agricultural interests and environmental resources may be affected by these reforms just and rausser argue that the key to policy reform is the political feasibility of the policy change a policy reform altering the current distribution of wealth will be contested by those currently empowered thus reforms will fail unless empowered interests are eased out and bought off compensated to take early retirement from the rent seeking game a golden parachute is necessary to ease the current patriarchs into the front porch rocking chair the relevant task becomes estimating the compensation package necessary to make environmental policy reform feasible to the agricultural community although both papers address the costs of political feasibility in gatt as well as environmental policy reform at least four issues remain unresolved first both papers address policy reform in a deterministic framework but target prices may be useful to stabilize returns of production the decoupling of program benefits could involve an increase in output price instability such that producer risk preferences come into play in addition even if we assume risk neutrality a nonlinear production risk could induce significant shifts in behavior the implication of adding a stochastic element moves us into the world of ex ante choice a world that buchanan and helms argue is less restrictive than the world of ex post choice inasmuch as the ex ante approach incorporates risk preference in a world of incomplete markets for environmental assets ex ante expenditures rather than ex post realized outcomes explain choice and welfare second whereas the empirical models are developed in a dynamic context the analytics of policy reform are static it could be useful to tie the empirical to the analytical by exploring policy reform in a dynamic setting that accounts for either repeated play or asymmetric information between players but this is a potential problem in that a multitude of potential nash or sequential equilibria likely exist see fudenberg and maskin the folk theorems for repeated games suggest that any feasible self interested payoff can be an equilibrium provided that the players are sufficiently patient the range of equilibrium compensation may be quite wide requiring explicit recognition of how expectations are formed for signaling games cho and kreps p 180 argue that what constitutes an equilibrium is powerfully affected by the interpretations that would be given by player b to messages that player a might have sent but in equilibrium does not send restrictions of out of equilibrium beliefs can reduce the number of acceptable equilibria but may require data that are impossible or extremely costly to acquire regardless stronger links between the dynamic processes associated with policy reform will provide a more rigorous framework for empirical estimation although the first two issues may be dismissed as technical nitpicking the third and fourth cannot the third involves the potential production and yield impacts of alternative policies the impact on the agricultural sector in both papers is large abler and shortle argue that implementation of a stylized version of the ec s macsharry plan of a two thirds decoupling jason f shogren is an associate professor in the department of economics iowa state university stan johnson lilyan fulginiti and pat westhoff provided useful comments journal paper no j 14795 of the iowa agriculture and home economics experiment station ames iowa project no 2872

public capital and private productivity this paper uses three different approaches to investigate whether the declining provision of public capital is a major cause of declining labor productivity the juxtaposition of approaches removes

productivity and cost gaps in manufacturing industries in u s japan and germany abstract the objective of this paper is to measure and explain the development of differences in productivity for five manufacturing industries of the u s japan and germany changes in total factor productivities and differences in technologies and the sources of those changes will be analyzed we extend the framework developed by jorgenson and nishimizu 1978 to the dual cost approach to reflect the efficiency aspect of productivity gaps in terms of cost disadvantages we employ translog cost functions for a description of productivity and cost efficiency gaps and for an econometric analysis of sources of catching up processes

explaining the rain the rise and decline of nations after 25 years in the quarter century since the publication of mancur olson s rise and decline of nations a large literature has evolved testing the central hypothesis regarding olson s thesis on institutional sclerosis these tests have taken the form of both econometric regression analysis involving a sample of various nations and detailed narrative case studies of specific nations tests have appeared in both economics and political science journals as well as in collected volumes and independent books performed primarily by authors from america and europe a review of over 50 separate works reveals that on the whole the theory of institutional sclerosis is generally but certainly not universally supported no systematic bias in favor of or opposition to olson is found to have arisen on the basis of methodology publication outlet or authorship location

beyond keynesianism and monetarism though there is consensus among economists about microeconomic theory neither the keynesian nor the monetarist theory of macroeconomics has attracted a consensus presumably because neither is compelling enough to persuade the skeptical a new approach to the subject that combines insights from each of the familiar schools with considerations that both schools have overlooked is accordingly offered here this argument accepts the evidence that involuntary unemployment and depressions sometimes occur and thus rejects the finding of the new classical or equilibrium macroeconomics that markets always clear and that all individuals and firms are in equilibrium it also rejects the keynesian assumption of wages or prices arbitrarily fixed at disequilibrium levels and insists that any adequate theory must show what interests are served by the existence of involuntary unemployment the theory offered here shows that an institutional or organizational arrangement common in all societies which have experienced widespread unemployment and deep recessions entails that many firms and individuals will be in disequilibrium this disequilibrium becomes more severe when there is unexpected deflation or disinflation the disequilibrium is of precisely the type commonplace in recessions and entails involuntary unemployment the theory also shows how groups of individuals and firms can gain from practices that entail involuntary unemployment and underutilization of resources for others