animal spirits and credit cycles in this paper we extend the behavioral macroeconomic model as proposed by de grauwe 2012 to include a banking sector the behavioral model takes the view that agents have limited cognitive abilities as a result it is rational to use simple forecasting rules and to subject the use of these rules to a fitness test agents are then driven to select the rule that performs best the behavioral model produces endogenous and self fulfilling movements of optimism and pessimism animal spirits our main result is that the existence of banks intensifies these movements creating a greater scope for booms and busts thus banks do not create but amplify animal spirits we find that increases in the equity ratios of banks tend to reduce the importance of animal spirits over the business cycle the other policy conclusion we derive from our results is that the central bank has an important responsibility for stabilising output output stabilization is an instrument to tame the animal spirits this has the effect of improving the trade off between inflation and output volatility

the role of cognitive limitations and heterogeneous expectations for aggregate production and credit cycle abstract the behavioural model of de grauwe and macchiarelli 2015 is extended to include financial frictions on the aggregate supply side the result is a tight and sustained feedback loop between animal spirits on one hand and supply of credit capital purchase and production on the other during phases of optimism credit is abundant access to production capital is easy the cash in advance constraint is lax risks are undervalued and production is booming upon reversal in market sentiment the contraction is quick and deep moreover the model is capable of replicating the stylized fact of a long and sustained simultaneous growth in credit production and asset prices observed in the us since mid1990 s lastly the behavioural model does a decent job in matching us data including multiple supply side relations including capital firm credit and inflation interest rate

specific experience household structure and intergenerational transfers farm family land and labor arrangements in developing countries data from indian rural household survey was used to test th hypothesis that the coexistence in traditional rural societies of extended intergenerational families infrequent land sales and high reliance on family members as farm laborers is the result of the economic advantages which accrue from the knowledge gained by farming a particular ploy of land over a long period of time the land specific experience of elderly members of a intergenerational household who farmed the land as a child and then as an adult are expecially critical in adverse weather years most previous investigators attributed the existence of multigenerational households the use of family members rather than hired laboreds and the infrequency of land sales to deficiencies in the market i e labor market imperfections and an absence of capital insurance and asset markets in the present investigations these same characteristics are viewed as having an economic advantages a model for estimating the contribution of the experience of the elderly household members to agricultural profits was developed and applied to data from a 3 year panel study of 2900 indian rural farm households the data was collected between 1968 71 by the national council of applied economic research the survey collected information on farm profits farm inputs demographic characteristics and the effects of weather conditions on profits a major limitation of the study was a lack of information on the duration of land ownership age of household members was substituted as a proxy for duration of ownership findings were consistent withe the hypothesis in poor agricultural years gross returns for households which contained an elderly household member were greater than the gross returns for comparable households which did not contain an elderly member the economic advantages of specific knowledge embodied in the experienced elderly farmer were comparable to the economic advantages which accrued to households whose members were more educated the hypothesis cannot fully explain the existence of intergenerational families since there is a relatively large proportion of such families among nonfarm families in many countries including india findings suggest that intergenerational families may provide for more occupational diversity and thereby reduce income risks the specific experience hypothesis has policy implications if technological changes are introduced the value of specific experience may be lost and the frequency of intergenerational households may decline the hypothesis may also explain why farmers are reluctant to agree to land redistribution and consolidation schemes this reluctance may disappear after sufficient technological change has occurred

more evidence on nutrition demand income seems overrated and women s schooling underemphasized abstract malnutrition is widespread in the developing world controversy continues concerning the roles of income household size and women s schooling on nutrient demand empirical estimates for nicaragua suggest that income elasticities are small and inversely associated with income levels there are some economies of scale in household size the elasticity for women s schooling is higher than those for income or household size and women s backgrounds are important the results cast doubt on the strong emphasis the world bank and others have placed on income and suggest that schooling may be working through tastes not only through productivity

rescuing gender from the poverty trap the new poverty agenda is seen as incorporating gender within a new broader concept of poverty lipton and maxwell 1992 capable of measuring evaluating and redressing gender bias along with poverty reduction policies based on labor intensive growth targeted social services and safety nets multilateral positions on gender and development gad for their part also stress the poverty of women as a primary justification for development interventions designed to improve the position of women it is argued here however that the concept of poverty cannot serve as a proxy for the subordination of women that antipoverty policies cannot be expected to improve necessarily the position of women and that there is no substitute for a gender analysis which transcends class divisions and material definitions of deprivation the instrumental interest in women as the means to achieve development objectives such as poverty reduction may ultimately undermine gad gender appears to have collapsed into a poverty trap this essay raises a call for help or at least a discussion about the relative benefits of captivity vs escape

migration remittances and the family remittances by migrants along with migration itself are elements in a migrant familys intertemporal contractual arrangement the reasons why the migrant and his family voluntarily enter into a mutually beneficial contractual arrangement with each other rather than with a 3rd party are discussed and the conditions under which the contractual arrangement is self enforcing are identified both parties can usually benefit from a number of pareto efficient mutual contractual arrangements this gives rise to an indeterminacy problem solved through a bargaining process between the parties who consequently converge to a contractual arrangement implying a specific flow of migrant to family remittances the chosen contractual arrangement reflects the relative bargaining powers of the parties and variables impinging upon these powers thus bear upon remittances in the light of these arguments tests are conducted on observed remittance behavior across individual migrants in botswana authors

why males earn more location and training of brazilian schoolteachers the persistence of a substantial differential between the wages of men and women is a continuing source of interest to economists the fact that much of the differential is not easily explained is perplexing to those who believe that labor markets function reasonably well there is a large literature concerned with explaining what appear to be other anomalies of labor markets in poor countries dealing with geographical segmentation the formal versus the informal sector and the public versus the private sector 1 little however has been written on female employment and on male female wage differentials in poor countries in this analysis we examine the income differential between male and female schoolteachers in brazil using information on their income hours of work educational background and other characteristics from a 1 sample of the 1970 brazil census the issues arising from use of income rather than wage are discussed below data on wage rates were not available the income differential is substantial the mean income of female teachers in brazil is less than one half the mean for men we are particularly concerned with isolating the contribution to the differential of two factors often ignored in similar studies the locational distribution of male and female teachers and differences between males and females in job position due to differences in the types of job training they have pursued both factors appear to favor males location because males are more highly concentrated in highincome regions and because interregional income differences in brazil are substantial possibly reflecting geographical segmentation and job position because males are much more likely to hold secondary school positions rather than primary school positions and there is a substantial income premium associated with secondary school positions by restricting our study to one occupation schoolteachers for whom we have extensive education data we can study carefully the effects of

the impact of development on women a specific factors analysis abstract the specific factors model is employed in this paper as a means of explaining how economic development may serve to diminish women s welfare three changes associated with the development process are analyzed for their effect on women s real and relative wage 1 an expansion of trade induced by an improvement in the terms of trade 2 technological change and 3 an increase in female labor force participation

monetary and financial interactions in the business cycle this paper develops a computable general equilibrium model in which endogenous agency costs can potentially alter business cycle dynamics the model resembles the influential theoretical work of ben bernanke and mark gertler 1989 two sources of shocks are considered productivity shocks and monetary shocks the model is parametrized to match key features of u s aggregate activity the principal result of the analysis is that agency costs add very little to the basic business cycle dynamics copyright 1995 by ohio state university press

consumer demand and household production the relationship between fertility and child mortality forces which link biological and behavioral factors to infant mortality and fertility in the united states are examined estimates can be arrived at if all of the important types of behavior affecting infant survival prices and income constraints facing households are diligently gathered using equations to determine the relationship between a family health endowment index in conjunction with a childs health information about optimal prenatal and postnatal behavior can be estimated and observed this estimate which is strongly a factor of parental and environmental health related factors attempts to characterize the biological effects of parents behavior on birthweight gestation and the rate of fetal growth another estimate presented is one which establishes a link between biological effects of birth order on infant mortality in this analysis factors such as medical care during pregnancy mothers rate of smoking mothers age duration of breastfeeding mothers race and childs sex were included household socioeconomic and health data were also estimated in order to understand state and county ability to provide adequate health facilities for pre and postnatal maternal care in particular results suggest that child mortality declines in developed countries and that mothers seek prenatal medical care in early stages of their pregnancy when risk is anticipated further study of the differential pattern of black and white fertility behavior in regard to seeking medical care is warranted

trends countertrends and gaps in women s employment abstract the factors driving global integration namely trade expansion technological change and the internationalization of production have altered production patterns and changed the composition of output in both developed and developing countries as global patterns and modes of production have changed there has been a general shift away from agriculture toward industry and services along with these output changes have come significant changes in regional and national employment in developing and developed countries these changes span divergent trends on the one hand there is the increased availability of more and better quality employment as workers shift out of agriculture and subsistence production and into waged employment in the expanding manufacturing and service sectors on the other hand there have been sectors where the trend has been away from formalization toward the informalization and semi formalization of production activities and employment practices women have generally benefited from improvements in the world economy this article demonstrates however that patterns of employment and income generation among women often diverge however from global trends in important ways that suggest that the forces shaping global integration effect women differently the article frames a policy discussion that the international center for research on women led to debate the implications of recent trends in women s employment in the developing and developed world the six articles in this section represent this discussion they span a range of empirical and theoretical inquiry exploring global employment trends and highlighting changes in women s participation in formal and informal economic activities

hearts and spades paradigms of household economics abstract this paper explains why the feminist critique of inequalities within the family poses a serious challenge to conventional economic theories of the household but it also discusses those aspects of both neoclassical and marxian theory that are useful to an analysis of conflict within the family arguing that the bargaining power models being developed by some neoclassical theorist are complementary to marxist influenced structural accounts

a theory of employment guarantees contestability credibility and distributional concerns abstract both raw intuition and past experience suggest that the success of an employment guarantee scheme egs in safeguarding the welfare of the poor depends both on the wage it promises and the ease with which any worker can gain access an egs is thus at once a wage guarantee and a rationing device we chart the positive and normative limits of such an egs as an efficiency improving and poverty alleviating policy reform in a canonical labor market setting at its core an egs provides an aggregate not just egs employment target given the target the egs wage and access can be fine tuned to deliver outcomes ranging from a contestable labor market to a simple universal unemployment benefit the credibility of any such target however is shown to be triggered endogenously by a host of factors the distributional concerns of the planner private sector productivity the prevalence of market power and the need for public works paradoxically the outcome with a planner who cares only about efficiency can be less efficient than the outcome with a planner whose social welfare function also gives weight to poverty

the financial instability hypothesis a stochastic microfoundation framework this paper examines the dynamics of financial distress and in particular the mechanism of transmission of shocks from the financial sector to the real economy the analysis is performed by representing the linkages between microeconomic financial variables and the aggregate performance of the economy by means of a microfounded model with firms that have heterogeneous capital structures the model is solved both numerically and analytically by means of a stochastic approximation that is able to replicate quite well the numerical solution these methodologies by overcoming the restrictions imposed by the traditional microfounded approach enable us to provide some insights into the stabilization policies which may be effective in a financially fragile system

the economics of food aid under subsistence farming with an application to malawi abstract we investigate how food aid affects price and production of staple food with a partial equilibrium model with non separable production and consumption the model captures the key characteristics of sub saharan africa subsistence economies simulations generate negative but also positive food aid elasticities of production conditions are identified which mitigate the negative impact and support a positive impact the share of domestic food production in total staple food demand and the share of income from staple food production in total household income are key determinants price and production equations estimated with a panel of district data of the malawi maize market for the period 1999 2010 show a small positive impact of food aid large negative impacts of food aid are not likely given production and income shares and behavioural responses

determinants of household supply of labour in food for work programme in tigray ethiopia we study the factors that determine the household supply of labour in food for work ffw projects that seek to address food insecurity and help capital formation in development based on data from a survey conducted in 2003 in tigray ethiopia our probit analysis identifies factors that significantly affect the household decision to participate in ffw programmes we correct for selection bias and estimate total and excess supply of ffw labour our finding of substantial leakages in targeting that allow relatively well off households to obtain ffw employment yield important implications for the prevailing ffw wage we also argue that ffw programmes will be more effective if they are designed to account for geographic heterogeneity in such factors as male to female labour participation differences and the incidence of debilitating diseases

productivity health and inequality in the intrahousehold distribution of food in low income countries a model is formulated incorporating linkages among nutrition labor market productivity health heterogeneity and the intrahousehold distribution of food and work activities in a subsistence economy empirical results based on a sample of households from bangladesh indicate that despite considerable intrahousehold disparities in calorie consumption households are averse to inequality furthermore consistent with the model the results also indicate that both the higher level and greater variance in the calories consumed by men relative to women reflect in part the greater participation by men in activities in which productivity is sensitive to health status copyright 1990 by american economic association

current real business cycle theories and aggregate labor market fluctuations hours worked and the return to working are weakly correlated traditionally the ability to account for this fact has been a litmus test for macroeconomic models existing real business cycle models fail this test dramatically we modify prototypical real business cycle models by allowing government consumption shocks to influence labor market dynamics this modification can in principle bring the models into closer conformity with the data our empirical results indicate that it does

asset price and wealth dynamics in a financial market with heterogeneous agents abstract this paper considers a discrete time model of a financial market with one risky asset and one risk free asset where the asset price and wealth dynamics are determined by the interaction of two groups of agents fundamentalists and chartists in each period each group allocates its wealth between the risky asset and the safe asset according to myopic expected utility maximization but the two groups have heterogeneous beliefs about the price change over the next period the chartists are trend extrapolators while the fundamentalists expect that the price will return to the fundamental we assume that investors optimal demand for the risky asset depends on wealth as a result of crra utility a market maker is assumed to adjust the market price at the end of each trading period based on excess demand and on changes of the underlying reference price the model results in a nonlinear discrete time dynamical system with growing price and wealth processes but it is reduced to a stationary system in terms of asset returns and wealth shares of the two groups it is shown that the long run market dynamics are highly dependent on the parameters which characterize agents behaviour as well as on the initial condition moreover for wide ranges of the parameters a locally stable fundamental steady state coexists with a stable non fundamental steady state or with a stable closed orbit where only chartists survive in the long run such cases require the numerical and graphical investigation of the basins of attraction other dynamic scenarios include periodic orbits and more complex attractors where in general both types of agents survive in the long run with time varying wealth fractions

gender gaps in landownership across and within households in four asian countries using nationally representative data from bangladesh tajikistan timor leste and vietnam this paper investigates which individual and household characteristics influence men s and women s landownership across and within households often neglected in household level statistics married women in all countries are landowners across different household structures women own less land than men and less land relative to the household average as household landholdings increase increasing gender inequality with household wealth cannot be consistently explained by an increasing share of household land devoted to crops findings support the need to strengthen women s land rights within marriage and to protect them should the marriage dissolve

gender poverty and deprivation evidence from the republic of guinea the article examines the relationship between gender and consumption poverty and between gender and deprivation in the republic of guinea national household survey data reveal that women are not more likely than men to be consumption poor or to suffer greater consumption poverty participatory poverty assessment data from the village of kamatiguia reveal that women are worse off than men when deprivation includes inter alia excessive work load and reduced decision making authority when consumption poverty poorly correlates with other dimensions of deprivation it should not be the sole guide for equity based policy intervention

motivations to remit evidence from botswana in this article a theory of motivations to send remittances is described and tested with data from botswana altruism is one of the motivations tested and found to be an insufficient explanation for remittances among migrants in botswana a refinement of the model stipulates a modified altruism or enlightened self interest in this model the relationship between the migrant and family is tempered by an implicit understanding of mutual benefit the household strategy may be to encourage some members to migrate as a means of spreading risk and sharing gains the household strategy is similar to an insurance policy where migration is to places where market potential is high the risks incurred might be high the example is given of migration during a drought in botswana migrant remittances were greater in households with more cattle or households with more to lose drought alone was not statistically related to remittances increases in remittances were related to increased levels of education it is suggested that repayment was the motive for parents investment in migrants education migrants gains are identified as the potential for an inheritance the security of channeling investments through a trusted family member and security in having a home to return to it is pointed out that the altruism and family remittances from urban migration were strategies that bridged the simple dynamic of either urban development or rural development impacting on family welfare it is suggested that household models of economy adopt some measure to express the relationship of household wealth to remittances from urban migrants

changes needed in agricultural policy for female headed farm families in tropical africa abstract the decline in per capita agricultural production has been reversed somewhat in tropical africa by the structural adjustment programs which have increased producer prices liberalized marketing and devalued currencies but the 30 of smallholder farm households which are female headed will not be assisted much due to their special constraints of shortages of labor and credit lack of extension visits and appropriate labor saving technologies for these households the authors argue improved extension services credit for agricultural inputs small ruminant animals and poultry labor saving devices and craft inputs will be necessary to increase their incomes and levels of living

alternative definitions of headship and the feminisation of income poverty in post apartheid south africa abstract in measuring gender differences in the risk of income poverty many studies use female headship as a proxy for gender however a number of well documented concerns with the use of self reported headship as an analytical category have suggested that headship is often a relatively blunt unit of analysis against the backdrop of a large and growing difference in income poverty rates between self reported female and male headed households in post apartheid south africa this study considers several alternative definitions of headship that have been proposed in the development literature the findings suggest that there is an association between self reported female headship and a female household member being identified as the main breadwinner however the conventional definition of headship is likely to underestimate the growing risk of income poverty in female headed households relative to male headed households compared with several alternative definitions the findings also suggest that alte

financial crises bank risk exposure and government financial policy a macroeconomic model with nancial intermediation is developed in which the intermediaries banks can issue outside equity as well as short term debt this makes bank risk exposure an endogenous choice the goal is to have a model that can not only capture a crisis when banks are highly vulnerable to risk but can also account for why banks adopt such a risky balance sheet in the rst place we use the model to assess quantitatively how perceptions of fundamental risk and of government credit

money output and the nominal national debt this paper presents a model of finitely lived rational agents in which unanticipated innovations in the stock of fiat money affect real variables an unanticipated inflation reduces the real value of the nominally denominated national debt thereby reducing the crowding out of capital and or the tax burden both effects stimulate increased investment in capital which leads to an increase in real output and wages in the following periods in contrast with price surprise models these real effects occur even if the monetary innovation is instantly and perfectly observed by agents copyright 1990 by american economic association

female headed households poverty and the welfare of children in urban brazil this study describes female headed households and analyzes the determinants of poverty among these households and the consequences for children data are obtained from the brazilian pesquisa national por amostra de domicilios pnad for mostly 1984 and some other years historically brazil has always had a large proportion of female headed households in part due to the plantation culture and the need for male labor migration to plantations this study focuses on households in recife sao paulo and porto alegre these metro areas reflect a variety of socioeconomic conditions two alternative definitions of headship are compared and caution is urged in using too narrow a concept of headship in situations such as in this study where households depend upon more than one income earner income levels varied across the three regions mean income in sao paulo and porto alegre was similar income in recife was much lower there were more female headed households per capita in recife the general trend was that the lower the relative income the higher the likelihood of being a female headed household female headed households with minors and moynihan type households had the greatest proportion in the lower income groups it is concluded that 1 female headships were heterogenous 2 the extent of poverty of female headed households varied by region and was the greatest in the northeast and 3 female headed households were poorer because females earned less than males lower female income was related to lower hours worked and the tendency of women to work in occupations that paid lower salaries or to hold low status occupations employers were faulted for failing to hire women for higher paying jobs or to pay salaries on par with male counterparts single mother headed households in urban areas were 3 4 of households but these households with children tended to be poor and were designated a vulnerable group not all female headed households were vulnerable particularly those in the south interventions should be targeted at children who are most at risk for poor school attendance at ages 10 14 years in poor female headed households children were worse off in recife where there was a stronger association between poverty and female headship only children in female headed households had decreased school attendance with increasing age the analysis of the poverty effect on children indicated different impacts in each metro area

a simple adaptive measure of core inflation this paper proposes a new measure of core inflation and compares it with several existing measures the new measure is adaptive and is designed to track sudden and persistent movements in inflation such as those arising from changes in monetary policy regimes the adaptive measure filters out transients more effectively than existing measures and it is a superior predictor of locally mean reverting components of inflation

the determinants of female headship in jamaica results from a structural model much of the existing research on female headship in developing countries presumes that female headed households fhhs are the result of a breakdown in family relations such as abandonment out of wedlock pregnancy divorce or widowhood in other words the existence of fhhs is seen to be a constraint imposed on women by social or cultural forces however in jamaica fhhs represent 42 of all households this extremely high incidence one of the highest in the world indicates that the conventional assumptions about fhhs might not apply in jamaica indeed the sociological and anthropological literature suggests that jamaican women actively choose to live and raise children on their own and that fhhs are a response to local social and economic conditions this article departs from the previous research on headship by treating the formation of fhhs as endogenous and investigating the extent to which the rate of fhhs can be explained by economic forces recent game theory approaches to analyzing household behavior provide a convenient starting point for the household formation model developed here bargaining models assume that an individual s willingness to form a household with a partner depends on the outside opportunities available to that individual in essence an individual makes a comparison between the utility attainable inside and outside a union and chooses the living arrangement that gives the highest welfare following the bargaining framework the approach in this article is to explicitly allow alternative prospects threat points to influence a woman s choice of residence the method is to estimate each woman s welfare in the counterfactual status and compare it with her observed level of well being a test of the economic content of the household formation decision is to see whether the predicted welfare level in the counterfactual status influences a woman s headship choice most of the empirical work using the bargaining framework tests

causality between energy consumption and output growth in the indian cement industry an application of the panel vector error correction model vecm abstract the aim of this paper is to examine the existence and direction of the causal relationship between energy consumption and output growth in the indian cement industry for the period 1979 80 to 2004 05 the most recently developed panel unit root a heterogeneous panel cointegration and panel based error correction model is applied within a multivariate framework the empirical results confirm a positive long run cointegrated relationship between output and energy consumption when heterogeneous state effects are taken into account we also found a long run bi directional relationship between energy consumption and output growth in the indian cement industry for the study period implying that an increase in energy consumption directly affects the growth of this sector and that growth stimulates further energy consumption these empirical findings imply that energy consumption and output are jointly determined and affect each other the empirical evidence also suggests the implementation of energy conservation policies oriented toward improving energy use efficiency to avoid any negative impacts of the conservation policies on the growth of this industry

are women overrepresented among the poor an analysis of poverty in 10 developing countries abstract this paper presents new evidence on the proportion of women in poverty in 10 developing countries it compares poverty measures for males and females and for male and female headed households and investigates the sensitivity of these measures to the use of per capita and per adult equivalent units and different definitions of the poverty line while poverty measures are higher for female headed households and for females the differences are significant in only a fifth to a third of the datasets the contribution of female headed households to aggregate poverty is less than that of females due to the low population share of the former stochastic dominance analysis reveals that differences between male and female headed households and between males and females are often insignificant except for ghana and bangladesh where females are consistently worse off these results suggest that cultural and institutional factors may be responsible for higher poverty among women in these countries our results point to the need to analyze determinants of household income and consumption using multivariate methods and to give greater attention to the processes underlying female headship

factor intensities and factor substitution in general equilibrium abstract this article examines how factor intensity rankings between industries and the economy wide asymmetry in the degree of factor substitution combine to influence the manner in which changes in relative commodity prices affect the factoral distribution of income the reciprocal influence of factor endowment changes on the composition of outputs is also discussed the analysis is undertaken in a general three factor two commodity framework the minimal sized model that allows both influences to affect factor prices and admits of the possibility of complementarity between factors factors which are good substitutes find their returns behave somewhat similarly when commodity prices change while factors which are complements experience strongly asymmetrical fortunes a crucial role is played by a comparison of the share of the middle factor in each sector

the poverty and heterogeneity among female headed households revisited the case of panama abstract investigating whether female headed households fhhs are particularly disadvantaged requires more systematic means of comparing poverty than are typically found in past studies in panama while fhhs as a whole appear to be better off on average such results are somewhat sensitive to assumptions about economies of scale in household consumption more disaggregated analysis reveals that particular segments of fhhs particularly self reported fhhs with common law partners living in urban areas are disadvantaged in both consumption and some nonconsumption dimensions thus less systematic analysis could fail to identify such pockets of poverty that might deserve special policy attention

nominal vs real wage rigidities in new keynesian models with hiring costs a bayesian evaluation abstract the inclusion of labor market frictions in the new keynesian dsge model overcomes the main drawbacks of the baseline framework in this paper we show that this extended model by assuming real wage rigidities does not replicate the correct wage dynamics and the negative conditional correlation between technology shocks and employment observed in the data known as the productivity employment puzzle we show also that these empirical limitations can be overcome by replacing real wage rigidities with nominal wage rigidities without sacrificing other appealing features of the model we adopt a bayesian perspective to estimate the dynamic properties of the model with real wage rigidities and compare them with those of the model with nominal wage rigidities we show that the evidence favors this latter construction

the economic and demographic status of female headed households in rural botswana analyzes the economic and demographic status of female headed households in botswana where insufficient economic opportunities force many men to live and work away from home the analysis is based on the rural income distribution survey conducted in 1974 75 by the central statistical office of botswana in which 957 households containing 6475 individuals were interviewed once a month for 23 months the relevant items surveyed were age and sex of household nembers amount and sources of income identity and value of assets use of time extent of education and sex of perceived head of household the analysis recognizes 4 types of households male head with male aged 20 64 present 452 male head with no male 20 64 present 77 female head with male aged 20 64 present 131 and female head with no male aged 20 64 present 277 the primary analysis consists of a comparison of the 1st and 4th of these groups categories 2 and 3 are intermediate positions and their characteristics are less clear cut the income distribution in rural botswana is more unequal than in many other developing countries with female headed households faring especialy poorly on a per adult equivalent basis the welfare attained by members of female headed households is nearly 25 lower than that attained in male headed households such is the case despite the fact that women in botswana have been shown to compare favorably with men in regard to education willingness to work agricultural know how and entrepreneurial ability reasons for womens lower economic status in this country are discussed and policy suggestions to overcome this discrepancy are made

drought transfer entitlements and income distribution the botswana experience abstract using 1974 75 and 1985 86 income distribution survey data with the latter supplemented by drought relief data this paper presents an analysis of intertemporal rural household income distribution in botswana despite the fact that the 1974 75 survey was conducted during one of the best agricultural production periods on record and the 1985 86 survey was conducted in the midst of one of the worst after the rural income economy had been weakened by a severe and prolonged drought botswana s rural income inequality did not appear to have increased significantly there was no marked reduction in rural household real incomes the explanation for this outcome is found to lie in the income maintenance strategy pursued by rural households with strong support from transfer entitlement guarantees from private and public sources supplementing rural household incomes

program conditionality and food security the impact of progresa and procampo transfers in rural mexico this paper examines the progresa and procampo cash transfer programs in mexico and evaluates their impact on household food security and nutrition these two programs differ in their targeting and design progresa is aimed at women and program conditionality is linked to current consumption and human capital investment procampo benefits male farmers and program conditionality is linked to agricultural production the main question addressed by the paper is whether a cash transfer program geared to agricultural production can have the same impact on food security as a cash transfer program geared to consumption through purchases our results suggest that monetary payments linked to a productive asset land can have as large or larger impact on food security as cash transfers not linked to a productive asset we show that both programs boost total food consumption and caloric intake in similar proportions however increased food security is achieved through different channels for progresa through purchases while for procampo through investment in home production this suggests that the choice of program design depends on objectives beyond total food consumption and caloric intake such as consumption from specific food categories diversity of food consumption investment in agricultural production and the degree of access to retail food markets

a poverty profile for rural botswana abstract recognizing that for policy purposes it is important to learn in what ways households that are poor differ from households that have a more adequate income and recognizing that these differences may be cause or consequence of low economic status this paper compiles a poverty profile of rural botswana the data are taken from the rural income distribution survey conducted in 1975 by the central statistical office of the government of botswana a sample of 950 randomly selected households in 20 rural areas the survey data enable the authors to determine how close each household comes to meeting its basic requirements the paper begins by explaining the derivation of poverty income ratios it then relates the pirs to the demographic characteristics of households their education location and asset holdings there follows a description of differences in time use and sources of income among the five poverty ratio groups the authors conclude with a discussion of the implications for policies aimed at the alleviation of poverty

targeted characteristics and use of socially marketed preventive health goods evidence from condoms in sub saharan africa social marketing is a popular method for allocating targeted publicly funded preventive health goods in poor countries however low demand among targeted groups may inhibit take up relative to non

famine and household coping strategies abstract households faced with risks to their entitlement to food will plan strategically to minimize their impact the task of doing this will be particularly demanding during famines this paper reviews the evidence on household strategies for coping with famine in africa and identifies some distinctive patterns in these strategies which can be used to examine household objectives at times of crisis the management of resources to meet these objectives and limits to the effectiveness of coping strategies in particular it examines the role of asset management and trade offs between maintaining current food consumption levels and protecting the future income generating capacity of the household

a new keynesian model with heterogeneous expectations abstract within a new keynesian model we incorporate bounded rationality at the individual agent level and we determine restrictions on expectations operators sufficient to imply aggregate is and as relations of the same functional form as those under rationality this result provides dual implications the strong nature of the restrictions required to achieve aggregation serve as a caution to researchers imposing heterogeneous expectations at an aggregate level may be ill advised on the other hand accepting the necessary restrictions provides for tractable analysis of expectations heterogeneity as an example we consider a case where a fraction of agents are rational and the remainder are adaptive and find specifications that are determinate under rationality may possess multiple equilibria in case of expectations heterogeneity

household food security and child nutrition the interaction of income and gender of household head abstract data from kenya and malawi suggest that food security and preschooler nutritional status are influenced by the interaction of income and gender of the head of household rather than simply one or the other not only is household food security influenced by total household income but the proportion of income controlled by women has a positive and significant influence on household caloric intake households were disaggregated not simply in male and female headed households but female headed households were further disaggregated into de jure legal head of household is a woman and de facto female headed households male head of household is absent more than 50 of the time in both kenya and malawi the de facto female headed households had the lowest income despite this low income preschoolers nutritional status was significantly better than in the higher income male headed and de jure female headed households the ability to improve nutritional status in a low income environment in the de facto female headed households is related to a combination of child feeding practices and other nurturing behavior the findings suggest that interventions that exploit incentives to invest in children can provide more immediate improvements in child health and nutrition where sustained income growth is possible only in the long term

household production in the philippines a non neoclassical approach the starting point of any economic analysis is a microeconomic theory of the decision making unit by providing a set of explicit assumptions regarding individual choices a microeconomic theory lays the necessary foundation for the explanation of economic behavior just as a theory of the firm underlies analyses of market production a theory of the family underlies analyses of household production explanations of long run trends such as fertility decline grow out of assumptions regarding the nature of household decision making developing what they term the economic approach to human behavior gary becker and other neoclassical economists forcefully argue that household behavior is motivated primarily by a collective concern for economic efficiency they assume that households seek to maximize exogenously given joint utility functions and they hypothesize that differences in household behavior represent efficient responses to differences in the prices and incomes which households face this approach provides the foundation for an explanation of fertility decline based on long run changes in relative prices associated with economic development simply stated the argument runs as follows as the rate of return to human capital rises and levels of education increase the cost of rearing children goes up as higher wages draw women out of the household into the labor force the opportunity cost of mothers time goes up further increasing the cost of children the demand for children decreases and fertility levels gradually adjust 2 the assumption that joint utility functions are exogenous constant over time and vary randomly if at all across households is crucial to this argument systematic differences in unobservable joint utility functions could seriously confound the interpretation of observed relationships between changes in household behavior and changes in rela

booming sector and de industrialisation in a small open economy this paper presents a theoretical analysis of the dutch disease the phenomenon whereby a boom in one traded goods sector squeezes porfitability in other traded goods sectors both by directly bi

are female headed households more food insecure evidence from bangladesh summary this paper uses household and village level survey data to investigate the food security of male and female headed households in bangladesh with particular attention to indigenous ethnic groups and finds no significant differences in the food security between these two types of households the absence of social and cultural restrictions among the indigenous groups permitting their females greater freedom to participate in the labor force coupled with informal redistributive mechanism is attributed to their less food insecurity this result indicates that noneconomic institutions can significantly impact economic outcomes such as food security

the effects of male and female labor supply on commodity demands we examine the effects of male and female labor supply on household demands and present a simple and robust test for the separability of commodity demands from labor supply using data on individual households from six years of the uk fes we estimate a demand system for seven goods which includes hours and participation dummies as conditioning variables allowance is made for the possible endogeneity of these conditioning labor supply variables we find that separability is rejected furthermore we present evidence that ignoring the effects of labor supply leads to bias in the parameter estimates

land titling and rural transition in vietnam abstract we examine the impact of the 1993 land law of vietnam which gave households the power to exchange transfer lease inherit and mortgage their land use rights we use household surveys before and after the law was passed together with the considerable variation across provinces in the speed of implementation of the reform to identify the impact of the law we find that the additional land rights led to statistically significant increases in the share of total area devoted to long term crops and in labor devoted to nonfarm activities however these changes are not large in magnitude and appear to be driven mainly by the increased security of tenure provided by the law rather than by increased access to credit markets or greater land market participation

gender headship and intrahousehold resource allocation abstract household head as reported in household surveys may not always identify the main economic provider and decision maker within the household research based on this definition of headship may lead to misleading conclusions on the link between gender and poverty treating female headed households as a homogenous group can also be inappropriate results from jamaica show that it is not female headedness per se that is associated with child welfare but the absence of a potential female decision maker within the household

macroeconomic expectations of households and professional forecasters economists have long emphasized the importance of expectations in determining macroeconomic outcomes yet there has been almost no recent effort to model actual empirical expectations data instead m acroeconomists usually simply assume that expectations are rational this paper shows that while empirical household expectations are not rational in the usual sense expectational dynamics are well captured by a model in which households views derive from news reports of the views of professional forecasters which in turn may be rational the model s estimates imply that people only occasionally pay attention to news reports this inattention generates stickyness in aggregate expectations with important macroeconomic consequences

who participates in labor intensive public works in sub saharan africa evidence from rural botswana and kenya abstract provision of low wage menial employment through public works schemes promises to provide low cost targeting of the poor especially in rural areas where instruments for income transfer are scarce findings from survey based studies in rural botswana and kenya show that the working poor are more willing to participate in public works schemes especially those with few assets and limited access to private income transfers access to short term employment through these schemes appears to improve the net income of the very poor and decrease poverty among the rural poor the significant number of nonpoor in the schemes indicates however a need for improving poverty targeting through setting wage rates that closely reflect the labor supply characteristics of the poor in rural labor markets in addition these schemes have to be complemented with other income transfer interventions to ensure that the poor who fail to meet work requirements are not excluded from public assistance

heterogeneity in the intrahousehold allocation of international remittances evidence from philippine households abstractthis article shows that heterogeneity in the intrahousehold allocation of remittances sent by temporary international migrant workers exists among households in the philippines and may be attributable to the absence of the spouse suggesting moral hazard and to the gender and educational attainment of the household head indicating differences in preferences glm estimates and post estimation tests reveal that male heads spend more on alcohol and tobacco that the presence of a female decision maker in a household increases allocations to goods that improve the welfare of the children and that household heads with less formal education allocate more to education

migration amongst the batswana the present study undertakes analysis of the effects of employment probabilities and wage alternatives on migration decisions in the context of botswana adopting micro level data both to estimate a multinomial migration function and to develop prediction equations for wages and likelihood of employment data are from the 1978 1979 national migration survey the factors that influence rural batswana adults to remain at home migrate to town on a short or long term basis move to another rural area or emigrate to south africa are examined consideration is given to the effects of employment alternatives on the rate of internal migration and the selectivity of movements with respect to personal household and locational factors excerpt

intra household resource allocation an inferential approach if household income is pooled and then allocated to maximize welfare then income under the control of mothers and fathers should have the same impact on demand with survey data on family health and nutrition in brazil the equality of parental income effects is rejected unearned income in the hands of a mother has a bigger effect on her family s health than income under the control of a father for child survival probabilities the effect is almost twenty times bigger the common preference or neoclassical model of the household is rejected if unearned income is measured with error and income is pooled then the ratio of maternal to paternal income effects should be the same equality of the ratios cannot be rejected there is also evidence for gender preference mothers prefer to devote resources to improving the nutritional status of their daughters fathers to sons

introducing financial frictions and unemployment into a small open economy model the current nancial crisis has made it abundantly clear that business cycle modeling no longer can abstract from nancial factors it is also becoming increasingly clear that the stylized modeling of labor markets without explicit unemployment that is the current standard approach has its limitations some questions which the dominating extant business cycle models are mute on but that we would like to answer are how important are nancial and labor market frictions for the business cycle dynamics of a

comparing shocks and frictions in us and euro area business cycles a bayesian dsge approach this paper estimates a dsge model with many types of shocks and frictions for both the us and the euro area economy over a common sample period 1974 2002 the structural estimation methodology allows us to investigate whether differences in business cycle behaviour are due to differences in the type of shocks that affect the two economies differences in the propagation mechanism of those shocks or differences in the way the central bank responds to those economic developments our main conclusion is that each of these characteristics is remarkably similar across both currency areas copyright 2005 john wiley sons ltd

how accurate is food for work self targeting in the presence of imperfect factor markets evidence from ethiopia effective targeting of transfers is a key issue in public policy to combat poverty much faith is presently placed in self targeting mechanisms such as public employment schemes supported by food for work transfers where targeting errors have been observed these are usually attributed to mismanagement of key operational details such as the project s wage rate using a unique data set from rural ethiopia we demonstrate that targeting errors may also have structural causes in some low income countries we hypothesise that imperfect factor markets generate a predictable dispersion across households in reservation wage rates that breaks down the unconditionally positive relation between income and shadow wages on which the theory of self targeting public employment programmes rests our results confirm that the inaccuracy of ffw targeting stems from the fact that in rural ethiopia higher income households are endowed with more labour per unit of land or animal due to poor factor markets in land and liv

the political economy of international trade enduring puzzles and an agenda for inquiry a similar set of concepts has been central to the literatures on the formation of trade policy coalitions and the new economics of institutions the political and economic consequences of the degree to which assets are specific to a particular economic activity in this survey the authors take the necessary first step of summarizing the main findings of these two literatures and then suggest ways in which the issue might be joined in addition to providing a more coherent understanding of the findings of these two literatures and some new directions for them the authors show that many puzzles remain in the field of trade politics puzzles for which there are no appealing answers or where there are answers no strong evidence in support of them this essay then in addition to being a theoretical review of the literature puts forward an agenda for future study of international trade politics

energy efficiency policy impact in india case study of investment in industrial energy efficiency the objective of this paper is to identify the effectiveness of energy policy and capital investment in energy efficiency technologies in the industrial sector in india indian energy policies relating to industrial energy efficiency over the past 25 years are briefly reviewed and a comparison study of these energy efficiency policies and strategies in india and china has been carried out interviews were conducted with a number of government policy making institutions and a national industrial development bank the accounts of 26 industrial enterprises which applied and used a loan of the asian development bank were audited for data collection field visits to seven industrial entrepreneurs were undertaken in a case study methodologies used in this study include documentation cross country reviews on energy policies questionnaire design and distribution in the industrial sector and on site auditing of energy efficiency technologies this paper concludes that current energy policies and strategies in india need further improvement to promote energy efficiency investment and energy efficiency technology development in the industrial sector this paper will interest those policy makers and industrial entrepreneurs who are willing to finance energy efficiency projects and improve energy efficiency in the industrial sector

the mobilization of women s labor for cash crop production a game theoretic approach in the last decade or so economists have modeled phenomena such as household labor supply fertility behavior and child survival rates using the household as the unit of analysis this paper presents data that call into question the assumption that the household is a joint decision making unit which maximizes a neoclassical household utility function the data come from a study of the mobilization of women s labor by their husbands for irrigated rice production in north cameroon the first section of this paper describes briefly the massa rice and sorghum farming system and then considers the relationship between the amount of compensation women receive from their husbands for their labor on rice production and the amount of labor they allocate to rice production the findings suggest that a bargaining model may describe the intrahousehold relations of production and distribution better than the neoclassical model the second section specifies a nash bargaining model and contrasts it with the neoclassical model of the household using the bargaining framework the third section explores in more detail possible explanations of the allocative inefficiency which seems to characterize many of the rice cultivating households

a review of optimal energy policy instruments on industrial energy efficiency programs rebound effects and government policies abstract industrial energy efficiency programs ieeps are defined as one of the most popular government policies that aim to reduce energy consumption in industrial energy intensive sectors in this paper we review and classify the most important academic studies that have addressed the environmental and economic aspects of ieeps using a systematic review the classification of energy policy instruments has been developed based on an analytical approach we discuss also the outputs benefits and barriers of ieeps besides a comprehensive argument about the restrictive policies on the rebound effects made after the implementation of these programs the results disclose that china usa and sweden are the most addressed countries on ieeps and their applications in this regard incentive energy policies e g voluntary agreements and subsidies have been applied more than others in the last decade furthermore most of the reviewed studies emphasize energy price reform as an effective practical policy while a few analytical methods can be seen to help policy makers determine the optimal levels of decision variables finally according to the state of the art analysis the authors provide some novel recommendations to improve the performance of ieeps using some restrictive policies on the negative impacts of rebound effects

asset specificity and the political behavior of firms lobbying for subsidies in norway previous research into endogenous trade policy has described extensively the political incentives of firms with specific assets but no studies have shown directly that firms behave as predicted we adopt insights from transaction costs economics to develop measures of asset specificity and to investigate how variation in these measures affects the political behavior of firms in particular we examine the lobbying choices of norwegian firms in the 1980s given available subsidy funds from norway s oil boom and some government decisions in the 1970s firms with more specific assets faced potentially greater losses from adjusting to new activities in the face of competitive pressures and thus had greater incentives to lobby for subsidies to protect themselves joint contacting of parliament and government on behalf of firm interests by representatives of both management and labor should be particularly likely where firms had specific assets data analysis shows that asset specificity as indicated by r d intensity and job immobility predicts joint contacting independently of plausible alternative explanatory variables like firm size and export orientation

women headed households and household welfare an empirical deconstruction for uganda abstract analysis of the first nationally representative household survey of uganda shows that women headed households are not poorer when assessed by consumption or income nor do they appear consistently disadvantaged on social indicators some subgroups of women headed households do have lower economic welfare including those headed by widows and those in urban areas gender inequalities in educational attainment appears to be the major source of what economic disadvantage such women headed households do face high remittances receipts play a key role in maintaining economic parity between women and men headed households

decentralization and participation the governance of common pool resources in nepal s terai summary decentralization has emerged as an important instrument of environmental and development policy in the last two decades presumed benefits of environmental policy decentralization depend in significant measure on broad participation in the programs that governments create to decentralize decision making related to resource management this paper uses data from protected areas in nepal s terai to examine who participates in environmental decentralization programs on the basis of our statistical analysis we highlight the fact that the likelihood of participation in community level user groups is greater for those who are economically and socially better off we also find that individuals who have greater access to and who visit government offices related to decentralization policies more often are also more likely to participate in user groups created by state officials finally we find a negative correlation between education and levels of participation our study and analysis support the argument that for decentralization policies to be successful on equity issues it is important to build institutional mechanisms that encourage poorer and more marginal households to access government officials improve access to educational opportunities and create incentives to promote more interactions between less powerful rural residents and government officials 2005 elsevier ltd all rights reserved

the value and allocation of time in rural botswana abstract time use data indicate that there is substantial surplus labor in rural areas of botswana with the incidence of underutilization varying by age sex and asset position time allocations are influenced by economic incentives i e income and productivity effects the more productive capital the household has the more productive work its members perform particularly its children the positive productivity effect of capital on economic work somewhat outweighs its negative income effect time allocations also are constrained by a culturally determined division of labor by age and sex which however shows some flexibility at the margin

who makes economic policy in africa and how abstract to understand the considerable detorioration in the economic policies of many african countries during the 1970s it is essential to go beyond the economist s analytical models the pressing drive of authoritarian rulers to survive adds an important dimension to economic policy choices although constrained to varying degrees by ethnic regional and class loyalties among populations they govern african rulers enjoy a measure of autonomy in making policy they did not react speedily to the growing economic crisis during the early 1980s however most reforms were undertaken under pressure and many policy efforts failed some countries managed to sustain reforms but the important question is how to go beyond these idiosyncratic cases

property rights and productivity the case of joint land titling in vietnam this paper explores the effect of land titling on agricultural productivity in vietnam and the productivity effects of single versus joint titling for husband and wife using a plot fixed effects approach our results show that obtaining a land title is associated with higher yields for both individually and jointly held titles we conclude that there is no tradeoff between joint titling and productivity and so joint titles are potentially an effective way to improve women s bargaining power within the household with no associated efficiency losses

expenditure behavior and children s welfare an analysis of female headed households in jamaica abstract evidence from jamaica shows that the sex and union status of the household head can have a significant influence on household expenditure behavior with implications for individual household members while the presence of a female decision maker generally increases the share of the household budget allocated to child and family goods female headed households fhhs also spend more on adult wear and less on health lower health expenditures are partially offset by the differential use of other health inputs in fhhs these differences in resource allocation may explain why poorer fhhs do not necessarily have lower children s outcomes in developing countries

famine incomes and employment has botswana anything to teach africa abstract this paper analyzes the objectives structure and success of the botswana drought relief program between 1982 and 1985 in terms of its impact on lost income and employment the design of botswana s famine containment strategy was directed towards the replacement of lost income and the preservation of productive assets it was successful in reaching all of its stated objectives however the paper argues that underlying rural unemployment both precipitated the crisis and was aggravated by it the paper therefore proposes that famine management should be based on an employment as well as an incomes theory of famine this is the main lesson botswana s experience has to offer

market opportunities genetic endowments and intrafamily resource distribution child survival in rural india the authors examine how intrafamily resource allocations respond to changes in economic conditions and to genetic differences in children by estimating the determinants of variations in the sex specific survival differentials of rural indian children based on standard census and household survey data they explore in particular the hypothesis that such differences are related to the relative returns to survival with households selectively allocating resources to children in response to variation in sex differences in their expected earnings opportunities as adults data are from the 1961 census and a 1971 household survey excerpt

gender inequalities in ownership and control of land in africa myth and reality lack of clarity behind measurement and interpretation of statistics on gender and land leads to an inability to clearly articulate a policy response to the potential inequalities faced by women and men this article sets out to explore conceptually and empirically the levels and relative inequalities in land rights between women and men in african countries the first section of the article engages in a conceptual discussion of how to measure gendered land outcomes what ownership and control mean in different contexts and why attention to these factors is important for the development of gender and land statistics the second section of the article systematically reviews existing evidence from microlevel large sample studies to summarize recent trends in land access ownership and control by sex the third section presents new statistics from a variety of nationally representative and large scale unpublished data on gender and land in africa results provide not only a nuanced understanding of the importance of measuring land indicators for gendered development in africa and globally but also new statistics on a variety of land outcomes to aid stakeholders in the discussion of gender land inequalities

cleaning house new perspectives on households and economic development abstract this paper provides a critical review of the recent literature on households and economic development three related points are developed 1 household activities can be analyzed in economic terms particularly if these terms are broadly defined to encompass such factors as risk and uncertainty 2 significant differences between the economic position of men women and children within the patriarchal household mean that it cannot be treated as an undifferentiated unit of analysis 3 microeconomic analysis of the household must be situated within a larger structural analysis of gender and age based inequalities and their interaction with class structure and national position within the world capitalist system