have trading rule profits in the currency markets declined over time abstract previous studies have reported mixed results regarding the success of technical trading rules in currency markets abnormal returns were observed in many studies using data up to the mid 1980s while more recent studies generally report less success for technical trading rules this paper tests whether moving average trading rule profits have declined over the period from 1971 to 2000 if so previous profits may represent a temporary inefficiency that has since been eliminated in the currency markets the hypothesis is tested using 18 exchange rate series over a longer time period than in previous studies rules are optimized for successive 5 year in sample periods from 1971 to 1995 and tested over subsequent 5 year out of sample periods results show that risk adjusted trading rule profits have declined over time from an average of over 3 in the late 1970s and early 1980s to about zero in the 1990s thus market inefficiencies reported in previous studies may have been only temporary inefficiencies

are all central bank interventions created equal an empirical investigation abstract this study investigates the relationship between central bank interventions and technical trading rule profitability in the spot foreign exchange market because interventions are not necessarily exogenous events we analyze the relationships between interventions by the g 3 central banks financial market conditions changes in monetary policy and technical trading profitability by considering announced unannounced unilateral and coordinated interventions separately we provide more insight into the interrelationships between these factors than previous studies we find that the level of technical trading profits and market uncertainty increase preceding and remain high during interventions especially announced and coordinated but decrease afterward a preliminary investigation of the possible role of a time varying risk premium around interventions cannot be rejected

the behavior of option price around large block transactions in the underlying security this paper investigates the behavior of stock and option prices around block trades in stocks the results indicate that for both uptick and downtick block trades the stock prices adjust within a fifteen minute period after the block trade moreover for uptick blocks there is no evidence of any stock price reaction before the block trade however the adjustment of stock price for downtick blocks begins about fifteen minutes before the block trade we also find that option price behavior differs considerably from stock price behavior specifically our results suggest that options exhibit abnormal price behavior starting thirty minutes before the block and ending one hour after the block the pattern is more pronounced for downtick blocks and for put options we interpret this abnormal price behavior of options before the block trade as consistent with intermarket frontrunning this paper compares the price effect of block transactions in the stock market with the price effect in the derivative options market the analysis is motivated by the suggestion in the literature that options provide a superior investment vehicle because of their inherent leverage and lower transaction costs and because of their ability to avoid stock market restrictions on short sales this implies that informed investors may prefer to trade in options thereby causing the option market to lead the stock market

do r d tax credits work evidence from a panel of countries 1979 1997 this paper examines the impact of fiscal incentives on the level of r d investment an econometric model of r d investment is estimated using a new panel of data on tax changes and r d spending in nine oecd countries over a 19 year period 1979 1997 we find evidence that tax incentives are effective in increasing r d intensity this is true even after allowing for permanent country specific characteristics world macro shocks and other policy influences we estimate that a 10 fall in the cost of r d stimulates just over a 1 rise in the level of r d in the short run and just under a 10 rise in r d in the long run

methodical madness technical analysis and the irrationality of exchange rate forecasts substantial empirical research documents that exchange rate forecasts are not formed rationally this paper identifies a common technical trading signal the head and shoulders pattern as a potential source of departures from rationality in exchange rate forecasts forecasts based on this pattern are evaluated for daily dollar exchange rates over 1973 to 1994 using two criteria for rationality profitability and efficiency resulting profits replicable in real time are tested for statistical significance using a bootstrap technique we find that the rule is profitable but not efficient since it is dominated by simpler trading rules

the role of non economic endowments introduction to the special section on what we know and what we should know about international knowledge sourcing recent developments in the pattern of international knowledge sourcing have highlighted a new international division of labor in knowledge production which now is affecting emerging as well as advanced countries the source of this division of labor has been identified as residing in the changing economic endowments of these countries we extend this by suggesting that the new international allocation of knowledge related activities is related strongly to a country s non economic endowments our arguments provide context to the papers in this special section

the innovative performance of german multinationals abroad evidence from the european community innovation survey this article analyzes cross country differences in innovation behavior of subsidiaries of german multinational enterprises the analysis is based on data from community innovation survey cis4 and covers 16 european countries we find considerable differences in innovation input intensity and innovation output intensity between german subsidiaries located in different european countries multivariate analysis reveals that these differences are largely related to firm characteristics a significant relationship between firm level innovation and host country characteristics can only be found for innovation output copyright 2011 the author 2011 published by oxford university press on behalf of associazione icc all rights reserved oxford university press

are technical trading rules profitable evidence for head and shoulder rules the profitability of chartist trading rules on foreign exchange markets is still under debate since simple technical trading rules may not adequately capture the complex phenomenon of chartist trading this study focuses on the prominent head and shoulder pattern as a representative trading rule which incorporates various technical ideas such as smoothed trends trend reversal resistance levels and volatility clustering for various combinations of the building blocks of head and shoulder definitions the result is generally negative returns to head and shoulder trading rules are not significantly positive and if there is any evidence for non zero returns at all then it is evidence for negative returns

risk of catastrophic terrorism an extreme value approach this paper models the stochastic behavior of large scale terrorism using extreme value methods we utilize a unique dataset composed of roughly 26 000 observations these data provide a rich description of domestic and international terrorism between 1968 and 2006 currently a credible worst case scenario would involve losses of about 5000 to 10 000 lives also the return time for events of such magnitude is shortening every year today the primary threat is from conventional weapons rather than from chemical biological and or radionuclear weapons however pronounced tails in the distribution of these incidents suggest that this threat cannot be dismissed copyright 2009 john wiley sons ltd

the interrelation of stock and options market trading volume data this research empirically investigates the relation between common stock and call option trading volumes the paper hyothesizes and tests a sequential flow of information between the stock and option markets if information trading for cboe listed firms is predominantly accomplished through option trading then existing research methodologies may be biased against finding any significant economic consequences in those instances where option listing is an important variable results indicate that trading in call options leads trading in the underlying shares with a one day lag black 2 suggests that information traders may prefer trading in options rather than shares due to economic incentives provided by reduced transaction costs capital requirements and trading restrictions and due to the greater action afforded by option trading manaster and rendleman 12 empirically support black s 2 option information trading preference finding incremental information content in option prices up to twenty four hours prior to its reflection in stock prices jennings and starks 10 report that the stock price adjustment process upon arrival of new information differs for those firms listed on the chicago board option exchange cboe and they demonstrate that stock price adjustment to new information occurs more rapidly for firms with listed call options the results in both papers appear to warrant consideration of an optiontrading variable in the design of empirical tests both manaster and rendleman 12 and jennings and starks 10 investigate the price relation between shares and call options this paper investigates trading volume copeland 4 posits the use of trading volume as a proxy for the rate of information arrival he concludes that the relation between absolute value of price changes and volume is positive and linear if one accepts a sequentialinformation arrival hypothesis as valid the present research hypothesizes and tests a sequential flow of information between the stock and option markets analyses presented are based on econometric tests for causality1 derived from the works of granger 6 and sims 22 if information trading takes place

option prices as predictors of equilibrium stock prices the black scholes option pricing model modified for dividend payments is used to calculate jointly implied stock prices and implied standard deviations a comparison of the implied stock prices with observed stock prices reveals that the implied prices contain information regarding equilibrium stock prices that is not fully reflected in observed stock prices the implications of this finding are discussed this study investigates the role of call option prices as predictors of the equilibrium prices of their underlying stocks using the black scholes 3 bs model previous tests of the bs model have shown that the formula is highly successful in explaining the observed market prices of options see black and scholes 2 galai 8 chiras and manaster 6 and macbeth and merville 12 according to the model the option price is a function of the current value of the underlying stock the instantaneous variance of the stock s rate of return the time to maturity of the option the risk free rate of interest and the exercise price of the option 1 given an observed option price and known values of all input parameters to the bs model except the stock price one can determine the price of the underlying stock that equates the observed option price to its calculated value it follows from the underlying logic of the model that the implied price is the value of the underlying stock for which a continuously revised option bond portfolio would be a perfect substitute for the stock hence if options are actually priced according to the model implied stock prices will be the option market s assessment of equilibrium stock values previous empirical studies have assumed that observed stock prices are the relevant stock prices for option valuation however just as stock prices may differ in the short run from one exchange to another i e nyse midwest

patterns of internationalisation of corporate technology location vs home country advantages given the trends towards increasing globalisation of markets and of production the globalisation of technology remains a subject of considerable interest to analysts and policy makers in the 1990s this paper provides some new empirical observations for debate and discussion on the patterns of technological activities of large firms outside their home countries it is based on a systematic analysis of the us patenting activities of 220 of the most internationalised firms in terms of their technology in the 1990s although firms are active outside their home countries in the high technology fields such as computers pharmaceuticals telecommunications image and sound and materials quite a sizeable proportion of their foreign activities are concerned with process and machinery technologies moreover a comparison of the technological advantage of the company at home and the advantage of the location shows that in a large majority of cases firms tend to locate their technology abroad in their core areas where they are strong at home these results suggest that adapting products and processes and materials to suit foreign markets and providing technical support to off shore manufacturing plants remain major factors underlying the internationalisation of technology they are also consistent with the notion that firms are increasingly engaging in small scale activities to monitor and scan new technological developments in centres of excellence in foreign countries within their areas of existing strength however there is little evidence to suggest that even these most internationalised firms routinely go abroad to compensate for their weakness at home

open interest in stock options around quarterly earnings announcements in this paper i document the behavior of open interest in listed stock options around quarterly earnings announcements using pooled timeseries cross section regressions i find a significant decline in open interest prior to announcements this behavior cannot be explained by the reactions of investors to good and bad news i also find in several separate regressions that open interest behaves differently for options whose values are most sensitive to changes in stock volatility suggesting the behavior of open interest is correlated with recently documented temporary increases in the volatility of stock returns around announcement dates many studies based on the volume and price behavior of equities have confirmed that investors respond to public announcements thought to contain information interpreting those responses is a more difficult task for example while beaver 1968 has argued that consensus among investors is an important factor in investor responses others have shown that it is not possible to make unambiguous inferences about consensus by examining price and volume alone see miller 1977 verrecchia 1981 and karpoff 1986

time varying risk premia volatility and technical trading rule profits evidence from foreign currency futures markets abstract this paper re examines the efficiency of foreign currency futures markets by evaluating the role of time varying risk premia and volatility in explaining technical trading rule profits the results show that large parts of the technical rule profits can be explained by the time varying risk premia estimated from a general model for the conditional capm the bootstrap distributions for the profits under the null model average one third to one half of the actual profits and enclose the actual profits well within the 90 confidence intervals time varying conditional volatility explains an additional 10 of the profits

do momentum based strategies still work in foreign currency markets this paper examines the performance of momentum trading strategies in foreign exchange markets we find the well documented profitability of momentum strategies during the 1970s and the 1980s has continued throughout the 1990s our approach and findings are insensitive to the specification of the trading rule and the base currency for analysis finally we show that the performance is not due to a time varying risk premium but rather depends on the underlying autocorrelation structure of the currency returns in sum the results lend further support to prior momentum studies on equities the profitability to momentum based strategies holds for currencies as well

localised production of technology for global markets given the trends towards increasing globalization of markets and of production the globalization of technology remains a subject of considerable interest to analysts and policymakers in the 1990s the main conclusion of this paper is that there is no systematic evidence to suggest that widespread globalization of technological activities occurred in the 1980s the evidence based on the u s patenting activities of 569 of the world s largest firms based in 13 countries and covering 17 product groups shows that for an overwhelming majority of them technology production remains close to the home base the analysis also shows the dangers of generalizing on the basis of anecdotal evidence from a small sample of firms from a particular country or sector c 1995 academic press inc copyright 1995 by oxford university press

when do industries cluster a proposal on how to assess an industry s propensity to concentrate at a single region or nation abstract often the literature on clustering implicitly assumes national or regional sectoral agglomeration to be a general phenomenon applying to all or most businesses we argue that not all industries are equally affected by the process of clustering therefore the question on how to assess the relevance of clustering for a particular company or industry becomes important it is deduced that those industries with a divisible production process and a transportable product or service fulfil the necessary conditions for clustering a long value chain including multiple distinct competencies innovation intensity characterised by network innovations and the volatility of markets further increase the potential for an industry to cluster besides providing a heuristic for strategic management this paper alerts regional planners that only in those regions whose economic structure is characterised by industries subject to clustering the promotion of local network building is relevant

r d offshoring and the productivity growth of european regions the recent increase in r d offshoring has raised fears that knowledge and competitiveness in advanced countries may be at risk of hollowing out at the same time economic research has stressed that this process is also likely to allow some reverse technology transfer and foster growth at home this paper addresses this issue by investigating the extent to which r d offshoring is associated with productivity dynamics of european regions we find that offshoring regions have higher productivity growth but this positive effect fades with the number of investment projects carried out abroad a large and positive correlation emerges between the extent of r d offshoring and the home region productivity growth supporting the idea that carrying out r d abroad strengthens european competitiveness

the temporal pattern of trading rule returns and exchange rate intervention intervention does not generate technical trading profits abstract this paper characterizes the temporal pattern of trading rule returns and official intervention for australian german swiss and u s data to investigate whether intervention generates technical trading rule profits the data reject the hypothesis that intervention generates inefficiencies from which technical rules profit in particular high frequency data show that abnormally high trading rule returns precede german swiss and u s intervention australian intervention precedes high trading rule returns but trading intervention patterns make it implausible that intervention actually generates those returns rather intervention responds to exchange rate trends from which trading rules have recently profited

option volume and stock prices evidence on where informed traders trade this paper investigates the informational role of transactions volume in options markets we develop an asymmetric information model in which informed traders may trade in option or equity markets we show conditions under which informed traders trade options and we investigate the implications of this for the linkage between markets our model predicts an important informational role for the volume of particular types of option trades we empirically test our model s hypotheses with intraday option data our main empirical result is that negative and positive option volumes contain information about future stock prices the information content of trading activity is a subject of widespread interest if trades are correlated with private information then the outcome of the transaction process may portend future movements in price the extension of trading to different venues or to derivative instruments however means that this link between transactions and information need not be easily discernible if there are alternative markets in which informed traders can profit from their information then where informed traders choose to trade may have important implications not only for security p rice movements but for the behavior of related prices as well this suggests that transactions in derivative markets may be an important predictor of future security price movements in this paper we investigate the informational role of transactions volume in options markets for some readers this focus may seem puzzling an option is a derivative security so its price should be dictated unilaterally by the behavior of the stock price this unidirectional linkage is only true however in complete markets if information is impounded into prices by trading then the ability of informed traders to transact in options markets mearns

the significance of technical trading rule profits in the foreign exchange market a bootstrap approach abstract in this paper we present new evidence on the profitability and statistical significance of technical trading rules in the foreign exchange market we utilize a new data base currency futures contracts for the period 1976 1990 and we implement a new testing procedure based on bootstrap methodology our results suggest that simple technical trading rules have very often led to profits that are highly unusual splitting the entire sample period into three 5 year periods reveals that on average the profitability of some trading rules declined in the latest period although profits remained positive on average and significant in many cases jel f31 f47 g15

safe nests in global nets internationalization and appropriability of r d in wireless telecom this paper documents the case of the wireless telecom industry to bring new empirical evidence to the debate on the internationalization of research and development r d activities us patent statistics on the four industry leaders ericsson motorola nokia and qualcomm illustrate the growing trend of the internationalization of r d over the 1990s yet we show that the most critical r d projects related to the development of wireless standards remain homebound the paper then leverages qualitative data collected through interviews with informed managers to provide a fresh interpretation for the homeboundedness of critical industrial r d the stickiness of core r d projects to domestic locations is related not only to organizational inertia and the unripe maturation of subsidiaries as suggested by prior literature but particularly to the headquarters centralization of intellectual property ip management which offers a high level of appropriability of r d results the unequal distribution of appropriability across corporate r d networks is at the base of the formation of safe nests domestic r d centers that are sheltered from the forces of globalization because they offer a desirable setting for the exploitation of technologies deriving from a stronger coordination of inventive activities with the management of ip

the market for equity options in the 1870s the introduction of exchange traded options in 1973 led to explosive growth in the stock options market but put and call options on equity securities have existed for more than a century prior to the listing of option contracts trading was conducted in an order driven over the counter market from 1873 to 1875 quotes for options contracts were published weekly in the commercial and financial chronicle during a period that saw extensive marketing efforts by a number of brokerage firms in this article we examine these quotes to determine why this seemingly sophisticated market existed for only a brief period in financial history in 1973 exchange traded options were introduced and for the first time a central marketplace was available for the trading of standardized option contracts in addition the creation of the options clearing corporation provided an intermediary to all contracts the volume of options traded has exploded during the past twenty three years as has our understanding of the pricing of options and other derivative securities put and call options on equity securities however have been available to american investors for more than a century following the civil war an active market in privileges the term then used for options1 developed in new york city with numerous brokerage firms offering put call and double privilege contracts this market reached the height of its activity in the period from 1873 through 1875 during that time indicative price quotes from a particular broker for options on about a dozen equity securities were generally published every saturday in the commercial and financial chronicle these quotes were placed along with the other financial data for the week including daily high and low stock prices bond prices gold prices money

using genetic algorithms to find technical trading rules1 abstract we use a genetic algorithm to learn technical trading rules for the s p 500 index using daily prices from 1928 to 1995 after transaction costs the rules do not earn consistent excess returns over a simple buy and hold strategy in the out of sample test periods the rules are able to identify periods to be in the index when daily returns are positive and volatility is low and out when the reverse is true these latter results can largely be explained by low order serial correlation in stock index returns

national scientific capacity and r d offshoring abstract this paper presents new evidence regarding the role of national scientific capacity in driving patterns of r d offshoring using a larger and more comprehensive dataset than has hitherto been used and applying it in a gravity model framework our results unambiguously support the importance of inventor country scientific capacity in attracting offshored r d as expected the home country s scientific capacity is also found to play a positive role we find that in fact on average firms source technology from less technologically advanced nations suggesting that firms offshore to access niche skills

the limits of r d internationalization and the importance of local initiatives turkey as a critical case the growth of r d in east asia has triggered the notion of a new innovation geography where r d is no longer a privilege of the traditional oecd countries what does this mean for mid sized emerging economies without the scale advantages and bargaining power of india or china this paper uses turkey as a case to examine the continual unevenness of international r d investments by analyzing opportunities and limitations for local initiatives in the telecommunications pharmaceutical and automotive industries the paper finds that active private capital a sufficient scale of production and focused public policies are needed to attract international r d

offshoring administrative and technical work new fields for understanding the global enterprise in this paper we introduce the journal of international business studies special issue on offshoring administrative and technical services ats in doing so we have attempted to locate the topic within the international business research tradition as well as suggest challenges and opportunities that the phenomenon offers to theoretical and empirical research in the field we examine the interplay of costs knowledge and innovation in the evolution of ats offshoring from modest beginnings to its current stature as an accepted business practice we suggest that understanding the continuing evolution of ats offshoring requires researchers to take into account not only the business imperative of cost saving but also a more complex set of underlying factors and potential outcomes we argue that the rapid growth of ats offshoring has brought about an accumulation of resources including financial flows knowledge infrastructure and human capital to create new platforms for knowledge creation and innovation low costs may characterize the initial conditions for offshoring but they also provide the basis for up market moves as firms increasingly pursue innovation based strategies we introduce the papers in the special issue as integral elements in our discussion contributing new ideas that stimulated our thinking and hopefully will do the same for others seeking to understand this emerging area of globalization and international managerial practice journal of international business studies 2009 40 887 900 doi 10 1057 jibs 2009 22

r d internationalization r d collaboration and public knowledge institutions in small economies evidence from finland and the netherlands this paper investigates domestic and foreign innovating firms determinants of r d collaboration with domestic universities and public knowledge institutes in finland and the netherlands we put particular emphasis on the impact of incoming academic spillovers on the probability to co operate with these public r d institutes based on data from community innovation surveys we find that foreign firms in the netherlands are less likely to co operate with domestic public knowledge institutions than domestic firms while in finland no significant difference can be detected another result is that incoming knowledge spillovers are an important determinant for r d collaboration with domestic public knowledge institutions in both countries in case of foreign firms in finland incoming knowledge spillovers affect the probability to co operate with public knowledge institutions more positively as compared with domestic firms for the netherlands no substantial difference could be found in this respect further innovating firms in finland that require academic or basic knowledge do not co operate significantly more with public knowledge institutions than those that need applied knowledge at the same time they are willing to share knowledge with public r d partners in the netherlands innovating firms that require relatively more basic than applied knowledge increase the probability of co operation with dutch universities and public knowledge institutions but there is reluctance to share proprietary knowledge with public r d partners for both countries no significant difference between foreign and domestic firms with regard to academic knowledge requirements could be found this raises the issue whether finnish innovation policies with a strong focus on r d co operation provide incentives for strategic behaviour by domestic public partners to put more emphasis on applied research

why option prices lag stock prices a trading based explanation while many studies find that option prices lead stock prices stephan and wvhaley 1990 find that stocks lead options we find no evidence that options even deep out of the money options lead stocks after confirming stephan and whaley s results we show their results can be explained as spurious leads induced by infrequent trading of options we show that the stock lead disappears when the average of the bid and ask prices is used instead of transaction prices hence we find no evidence of arbitrage opportunities associated with the stock lead in a perfect market price discrepancies should be instantly arbitraged away in particular option prices should neither lead nor lag stock prices in real markets only very short leads should occur traders with private information who are confident that their information is valid and that they will not be detected generally want highly leveraged positions to exploit their advantage thus we might expect options with their greater leverage to lead stocks if information trading is important manaster and rendleman 1982 bhattacharya 1987 and anthony 1988 find evidence that options

the influence of market demand upon innovation a critical review of some recent empirical studies abstract a number of recent empirical studies of technical change at the level of the individual firm have concluded that market demand is the dominant influence upon the innovation process calling forth innovations in market economies the pace of innovation in the private sector heavily influences the growth of national output and productivity and these studies and their conclusions have therefore received much attention having been extensively quoted in discussions of appropriate government policy for the encouragement of innovation this paper reviews a number of these studies and concludes that their findings and the interpretations of their findings in the secondary literature are seriously flawed and in many cases invalid the proposition that market demand governs the innovation process is by no means conclusively demonstrated in these studies and they are therefore inadequate and inappropriate guides for the formulation of policy most of the studies examined employ a working definition of demand factors which is so broad as to embrace a range of possible influences upon innovation which should more properly be classified elsewhere the concept of demand utilized in these studies bears little resemblance to the more restrictive and precise definition of market demand found in economics in addition the phenomena analyzed in these studies are a very heterogeneous lot the studies do not address identical empirical questions and their findings are as a result neither uniform nor unambiguous both demand and supply side influences are crucial to understanding the innovation process and it is the exclusive preoccupation with only one set of these forces which is criticized in this paper some implications of the criticism for government policy toward innovation are discussed in the conclusion

beating the foreign exchange market filter rule profits found in foreign exchange markets in the early days of the current managed float persist in later periods as shown by statistical tests developed and implemented here the test is consistent with but independent of a wide variety of asset pricing models the profits found cannot be explained by risk if risk premia are constant over time inclusion of the home foreign interest rate differential in computing profits has little effect on the comparison of filter returns to those of buy and hold in the early years of the generalized managed floating that began in march 1973 filter rule profits in excess of buy and hold were found for many countries logue sweeney and willett 18 dooley and shafer 6 cornell and dietrich 5 it was unclear however whether such profits indicated inefficiencies first it was not clear that risk was adequately handled in such tests and often risk was ignored second there was no evidence such profits would be available postsample and third there was no statistical test of the significance of these profits this paper uses the logic of risk return tradeoffs to analyze the role of risk in such tests and illustrates the logic in a discussion using the sharpe lintner capital asset pricing model capm although a breeden consumption based capm a merton intertemporal capm or an arbitrage pricing model apm could easily be used the paper develops a test of statistical significance appropriate to foreign exchange markets section i analyzing the rate of return on foreign exchange speculation less the foreign domestic interest rate differential the test explicitly assumes that risk premia are constant over the sample the excess rates of return observable in using filters in going from a risk free dollar asset to a risk free deutsche mark dm asset persist into the 1980 s section ii and this is true even when taking account of transactions costs it turns out that these results for the dm case do not depend very much on the interestrate differential but primarily on exchange rate behavior this is useful to know because it is often quite difficult to find matching interest rate data of high quality for a sample of nine other currencies using only exchange rates section iii shows that the excess returns made in the first 610 days of the float persist in the next 1 220 days into the 1980 s dooley and shafer 7 find similar persistence in experiments that do not use buy and hold and have no significance tests when filter rule profits have been found in spot exchange markets it has often been argued that the profits are due to risk this paper uses the capm to analyze rates of return both to buy and hold and to filter strategies it turns out that the claremont mckenna college and claremont graduate school arthur d warga douglas joines and thomas d willett offered helpful comments and ning ning koo provided research assistance

the globalisation of technology what remains of the product cycle model this paper reexamines two hypotheses associated with earlier versions of the product cycle model the first hypothesis that innovations are almost always located in the home country of the parent company is rejected on the basis of evidence drawn from one hundred years of u s patent office data the second hypothesis that the international dispersion of activity is led by technology leaders is historically valid however over the last twenty years technology leaders have been ahead instead in the globalization of technology that is in developing internal international networks to exploit the locationally differentiated potential of foreign centers of excellence c 1995 academic press inc copyright 1995 by oxford university press

determinants of the internationalization of regions the role and effectiveness of public policy measures banno m piscitello l and varum c determinants of the internationalization of regions the role and effectiveness of public policy measures regional studies this paper assesses the role of public policy measures on outward internationalization of regions by including financial and non financial incentives among the determinants of the international competitiveness of regions it is found that the former are important to enhance their active internationalization but that variables related to the knowledge and competence base of regions are even more so financial incentives related to equity participation as well as non financial incentives related to the provision of information come out highly significant in stimulating outward internationalization the empirical analysis is conducted for the twenty italian nuts 2 regions over the period 2003 2008

how do different drivers of r d investment in foreign locations affect domestic firm performance an analysis based on swiss panel micro data the aim of this article is to investigate the differences between specific motives of rd 2817 companies shows first that factors related to firm specific knowledge oriented advantages are more important for explaining the likelihood of foreign r d activities than factors reflecting disadvantages related to home location second knowledge oriented motives of foreign r d positively influence the innovation performance of domestic firms whereas market and resource oriented strategies have a positive impact on labor productivity copyright 2011 the author 2011 published by oxford university press on behalf of associazione icc all rights reserved oxford university press

technical analysis and the effectiveness of central bank intervention abstract using daily data on foreign exchange interventions of both the bundesbank and the fed we provide further evidence that central banks earn profits with interventions and that technical trading rules are unusually profitable on days on which interventions take place we argue that what lies at the root of these seemingly contradictory results is that a intervention profits and trading rule profitability are measured over different horizons and b after interventions exchange rates tend to move contrary to central banks intentions in the short run but in agreement with their intentions in the long run

the crash of ʼ87 was it expected the evidence from options markets transactions prices of s p 500 futures options over 1985 1987 are examined for evidence of expectations prior to october 1987 of an impending stock market crash first it is shown that out of the money puts became unusually expensive during the year preceding the crash second a model is derived for pricing american options on jump diffusion processes with systematic jump risk the jump diffusion parameters implicit in options prices indicate that a crash was expected and that implicit distributions were negatively skewed during october 1986 to august 1987 both approaches indicate no strong crash fears during the 2 months immediately preceding the crash attempts to explain what caused the stock market crashes around the world in october 1987 have suffered from the paucity of major economic developments occurring around that time that could have triggered the crashes shifting expectations regarding monetary policy foreign investors fears of a dollar decline increasing riskiness of assets none of these appeared major enough if present at all to explain the magnitude of the crashes and although portfolio insurance strategies could conceivably magnify the effects of a jump in fundamentals the initiating jump in fundamentals appears to be lacking

the rate and motives of the internationalisation of large firm r d 1994 2005 towards a turning point this paper addresses the internationalisation of rd and iii a rapid rise but still limited of asian firm r d internationalisation third these movements did not promote as anticipated the role of technology based motives asset augmenting strategies in the internationalisation of large firms r d technology based motives remain the most important of driver but the gap with market based considerations has narrowed

technological internationalisation in the electro technical industry a cross company comparison of patenting patterns 1986 2000 abstract this paper addresses the issue of r d internationalisation of two multinationals in the electro technical industry ge and abb by means of a patent data analysis the overwhelming majority of both companies r d activities are concentrated in western europe and north america the locational overlap between the two firms activities is small these results are consistent with findings from earlier studies that 1 there is little evidence to suggest that the production of technology is globalised in a general sense and 2 that tapping knowledge from an industry s global lead location plays a very limited role in foreign r d investments

global technology development by colocating r d and manufacturing the case of swedish manufacturing mnes in this study we analyze the role of colocation between research and development r d and manufacturing for global technology development by multinational enterprises mnes the extant literature suggests that the main strategic role of colocated r d units is to locally adapt existing products and processes however data from 146 foreign r d units of sweden s 17 largest manufacturing mnes in 2013 show that they instead mainly develop new technology not only for the local and regional markets but to a large extent for the global market a likely explanation is that colocation positively contributes to joint problem solving and transfer of tacit knowledge between production and r d personnel all of which is necessary in new product development especially in industries characterized by complex products and systems and rapid technological change a theoretical implication is that depending on industry characteristics internal cross functional linkages between r d and manufacturing can be more critical than external supply and demand side factors when it comes to influence where r d units are located globally

the globalisation of technology a new taxonomy book synopsis international management of research and development brings together the most influential contributions to managing organising and coordinating r d and innovation on a global scale in addition to papers on the fundamental principles trends and drivers of international r d it covers strategies and operations of global r d it also provides an introduction to modern concepts such as knowledge networks open innovation and virtual innovation it is a key reference collection for professors researchers and practitioners

knowledge seeking and location choice of foreign direct investment in the united states to what extent do firms go abroad to access technology available in other locations this paper examines whether and when state technical capabilities attract foreign investment in manufacturing from 1987 1993 we find that on average state r d intensity does not attract foreign direct investment most investing firms are in lower tech industries and locate in low r d intensity states suggesting little interest in state technical capabilities in contrast we find that firms in research intensive industries are more likely to locate in states with high r d intensity foreign firms in the pharmaceutical industry value state r d intensity the most at a level twice that of firms in the semiconductor industry and four times that of electronics firms interestingly not only firms from technically lagging nations but also some firms from technically leading nations are attracted to r d intensive states this suggests that beyond catching up firms use knowledge seeking investments also to source technical diversity

analyzing the evidence of an ipr take off in china and india abstract both china and india have been experiencing a historical take off in the use of intellectual property rights ipr in terms of trademark applications filed with domestic ip offices in 2009 the evidence demonstrates that china now ranks 1st worldwide and india 5th while for patent filings china ranks 3rd worldwide and india ranks 9th this performance is remarkable as both china and india experienced negligible demand for ipr protection as recently as two decades ago the ipr take up trends in these two countries are analyzed in detail highlighting the structure of patent and trademark demand since 1990 specifically the available series are broken down and analyzed according to i national versus foreign origin of patents and trademarks ii technological ipc and trademark nice classes and iii the major individual patent users in each country the data used refers to applications in the chinese and indian ip offices although the demand from residents of these two countries in both the international and other national systems is also assessed beyond the existing momentum in ipr registrations by china and india and their capacity to maintain it into the near future the paper addresses practical questions about the strategies motives and benefits behind the current trends in particular we seek to evaluate the capacity of both china s and india s national innovation systems to internalize the potential returns of this increasing demand for ipr the insight reached finds that should both china and india sustain their current ipr growth rates they will be able to catch up with the most advanced economies within the time span of a few decades

technology sourcing versus technology exploitation an analysis of us foreign direct investment flows the traditional paradigm of foreign direct investment fdi suggests that fdi is undertaken principally to exploit some firm specific advantage in a foreign country which provides a locational advantage to the investor however recent theoretical work suggests a model of fdi in which the motivation is not to exploit existing technological advantages in a foreign country but to access such technology and transfer it from the host economy to the investing multinational corporation via spillover effects this paper tests the technology sourcing versus technology exploiting hypotheses for a panel of sectoral fdi flows between the united states and major oecd nations over a 15 year period the research makes use of patel and vega s research policy 28 145 55 1999 taxonomy of sectors which are likely a priori to exhibit technology sourcing and exploiting behaviour respectively while there is evidence that fdi flows into the united states are attracted to r and d intensive sectors very little support is found for the technology sourcing hypothesis either for inward or outward fdi flows the results suggest that in aggregate firm specific ownership effects remain powerful determinants of fdi flows

the internationalization of inventive activity a gravity model using patent data this paper discusses the extent and the determinants of the internationalization of european inventive activity between 1990 and 2004 using an innovative method to treat the information contained in the european patent office s patstat database the observed level of internationalization of inventive activities while being rather low has steadily increased over time the amount of collaboration between actors residing in different countries is assessed by means of a gravity model as it is familiar in the literature on international trade the amount of bilateral collaboration is positively affected by the presence of a common language and a common border and by the common participation in the european union participation in the euro zone is also found to have a marginally negative effect international collaboration is negatively affected by distance with estimated elasticities that are significantly smaller than the ones that characterize international trade contrary to the rumors about the death of distance this effect has become stronger in recent years

why are companies offshoring innovation the emerging global race for talent this paper empirically studies determinants of decision by companies to offshore innovation activities it uses survey data from the international offshoring research network project to estimate the impact of managerial intentionality past experience and environmental factors on the probability of offshoring innovation projects the results show that the emerging shortage of highly skilled science and engineering talent in the us and more generally the need to access qualified personnel are important explanatory factors for offshoring innovation decisions moreover contrary to drivers of many other functions labor arbitrage is less important than other forms of cost savings the paper concludes with a discussion of the changing dynamics underlying offshoring of innovation activities suggesting that companies are entering a global race for talent

the use of technical analysis in the foreign exchange market abstract technica or chartist analysis of financial markets involves providing forecasts or trading advice on the basis of largely visual inspection of past prices without regard to any underlying economic or fundamental analysis this paper reports the results of a questionnaire survey conducted on behalf of the bank of england among chief foreign exchange dealers based in london in november 1988 amongst other findings it is revealed that at least 90 per cent of respondents place some weight on this form of non fundamental analysis when forming views at one or more time horizons there is also a skew towards reliance on technical as opposed to fundamentalist analysis at shorter horizons which becomes steadily reversed as the length of horizon considered is increased a very high proportion of chief dealers view technical and fundamental analysis as complementary forms of analysis and a substantial proportion suggest that technical advice may be self fulfilling jel f31

linking fdi motivation and host economy productivity effects conceptual and empirical analysis we develop a taxonomy that relates foreign direct investment fdi motivation technology and cost based to its anticipated effects on host countries domestic productivity we then empirically examine the effects of fdi into the united kingdom on domestic productivity and find that different types of fdi have markedly different productivity spillover effects which are consistent with the conceptual analysis the uk gains substantially only from inward fdi motivated by a strong technology based ownership advantage as theory predicts inward fdi motivated by technology sourcing considerations leads to no productivity spillovers

the globalization of r d results of a survey of foreign affiliated r d laboratories in the usa abstract this paper examines the globalization of innovation and the phenomenon of foreign direct investment fdi in research and development to do so it draws from a survey of foreign affiliated r d laboratories in the united states while the literature on foreign direct investment has emphasized the role of markets in driving off shore investments the main conclusion of this research is that the globalization of innovation is driven in large measure by technology factors of particular importance is the objective of firms to secure access to scientific and technical human capital

central bank intervention and trading rule profits in foreign exchange markets abstract moving average trading rules are utilized in both futures and spot foreign currency markets to show that significant positive profits can be earned in four of five currencies examined the results are consistent for both in sample and forward simulation tests regression results demonstrate that central bank intervention is strongly associated with the profitability of trading returns for the three major currencies dm yen and pound and partially explains returns for the sf and cd consistent with conjectures in previous studies that news concerning intervention tends to be revealed over weekends we find that moving average trading rule returns are significantly positive on fridays and mondays and not significantly different from zero in the middle of the week

technical analysis and central bank intervention abstract this paper extends genetic programming techniques to show that us foreign exchange intervention information improves technical trading rules profitability for two of four exchange rates over part of the out of sample period rules trade contrary to intervention and are unusually profitable on days prior to intervention indicating that intervention is intended to halt predictable trends intervention seems to be more successful in checking such trends in the out of sample 1981 98 period than in the in sample 1975 80 period any improvement in performance results from more precise estimation of the relationship between current and past exchange rates rather than from information about contemporaneous intervention

geographical amplitude in the international generation of technology present situation and business determinants abstract building on a rich dataset with information on 65 000 firms and 465 000 european patent applications from 1978 to 2000 this paper addresses the geographical amplitude of international technology generation first we show that the number of countries hosting international technological activities is increasing the usa and some developing nations benefit from this internationalisation conversely although europe as a whole still plays a leading role in the encouragement of foreign technological activities some european countries such as germany and the uk appear to be losing their technological appeal second we verify that multinational corporations mncs have increased the geographical amplitude of their technological activities in fact the mean number of countries in which mncs internationalised technology generation has doubled during the 23 years we have analyzed third we address the business characteristics that explain this phenomenon a negative binomial regression suggests that internationalisation is higher in mncs showing a greater technological diversification a higher volume of technological activity a wider presence in international markets and more experience in the international generation of technology finally american corporations and regardless of the home country those firms whose main technological fields are in chemistry pharmaceuticals or electronics present the highest geographical dispersion of their international technological activities

linear non linear and essential foreign exchange rate prediction with simple technical trading rules abstract this paper investigates the predictability of spot foreign exchange rate returns from past buy sell signals of the simple technical trading rules by using the nearest neighbors and the feedforward network regressions the optimal choices for nearest neighbors hidden units in a feedforward network and the training set are determined by the cross validation method which minimizes the mean square error although this method is computationally expensive the results indicate that it has the advantage of avoiding overfitting in noisy environments and indicate that simple technical rules provide significant forecast improvements for the current returns over the random walk model

innovation systems and inertia in r d location norwegian firms and the role of systemic lock in abstract this paper seeks to enquire why firms ceteris paribus tend to concentrate their r d activities at home using a systems of innovation si approach we argue that r d inertia is associated with structural inertia and resultant systemic lock in interaction within an si is a self reinforcing mechanism which may or may not lead to ex post efficiency lock in can be efficient when technologies and institutions maintain the competitiveness of firms on the other hand radical innovations or technological discontinuities may require new institutions and resources but systemic lock in may prevent rapid reaction firms can use a voice strategy by intervening to modify the appropriate institutions in the existing si or an exit strategy by seeking alternative si which more closely fit their needs in the case of norway two groups of firms exist group a benefit from a systemic lock in these are large firms in traditional sectors which are highly embedded and around whom the norwegian si has been built these firms engage in voice and loyalty group b are in science based sectors for whom lock in results in inefficiencies and use exit slowly expanding r d abroad to seek competences in technologies not available domestically

location versus home country advantages in r d activities some further results on multinationals locational strategies abstract in this paper we study the question of the determinants of the foreign location of technological activities of multinational firms mnfs do they locate their knowledge activities as a consequence of their home country advantages or according to host country strengths we have defined four types of strategy learning according to revealed technological advantages our results based on the 345 mnfs with the greatest patenting activity in europe globally confirm the main findings of patel and vega research policy 28 2 3 1999 145 155 in a great majority of cases nearly 70 mnfs locate their activities abroad in technological areas or fields where they are strong at home strategies 2 and 3 moreover strategy 3 which corresponds with dynamic learning outclasses strategy 2 which corresponds with myopic learning and becomes increasingly important over time the strategy of japanese firms is very different from european and us mnfs in europe japanese firms seek out locations that have complementary strengths to their own strategy 2 in terms of policy implications it can be noted that the national system of innovation in particular the system of academic research should strengthen the technological advantages of local firms and enable them to successfully locate a part of their r d activities abroad

formalizing internationalization in the eclectic paradigm the paper presents a simple general equilibrium model that formalizes internationalization in the eclectic paradigm based on a reconfiguration of concepts taken from the new classical economics literature the model enables us to address simultaneously the role of ownership location and internalization advantages and their interaction in the emergence of the multinational enterprise mne through a set of mathematical inequalities our model offers a bridge between the detached perceptions of the mne often held by international trade economists and international business scholars and makes specific aspects of the eclectic paradigm empirically testable

selective attention and the initiation of the global knowledge sourcing process in multinational corporations multinational corporations mncs frequently use their foreign subsidiaries to identify new opportunities to access external knowledge this article builds on the attention based view to examine how selective attention the focus on certain issues or answers at the exclusion of others works in the global knowledge sourcing process in mncs the results reveal an intriguing paradox while mncs may establish foreign subsidiaries far from headquarters to identify diverse novel knowledge and overcome local search headquarters decision makers tend to favor opportunities that are market proven and simply confirm what the mnc already knows subsidiary managers pre selling and selling efforts however can play a pivotal role in overcoming that bias this study combines detailed qualitative data with access to a proprietary database on 137 external knowledge sourcing opportunities in one of the world s largest mncs in the telecommunications sector

what determines the location choice of r d activities by multinational firms abstract we analyse 446 location decisions of r d activities by multinational firms incorporated in the european union over 1999 2006 our results suggest that on average the location probability of a representative r d foreign affiliate increased with agglomeration economies from foreign r d activities human capital proximity to centres of research excellence and the research and innovation capacity of the region further our evidence suggests that in comparison to european multinational firms the effects of patents intensity and proximity to centres of research excellence were stronger in the case of north american multinational firms while government r d expenditure intensity increased the probability of location of r d activities by european multinational firms in the region it did not have a significant effect on the probability of location of r d activities by north american multinational firms

the macroeconomic consequences of terrorism abstract we perform an empirical investigation of the macroeconomic consequences of international terrorism and interactions with alternative forms of collective violence our analysis is based on a rich unbalanced panel data set with annual observations on 177 countries from 1968 to 2000 which brings together information from the penn world table data set the iterate data set for terrorist events and data sets of external and internal conflict we explore these data with cross sectional and panel growth regression analysis and a structural var model we find that on average the incidence of terrorism may have an economically significant negative effect on growth albeit one that is considerably smaller and less persistent than that associated with either external wars or internal conflict as well terrorism is associated with a redirection of economic activity away from investment spending and towards government spending however our investigation also suggests important differences both regarding the incidence and the economic consequences of terrorism among different sets of countries in oecd economies in particular terrorist incidents are considerably more frequent than in other nations but the negative influence of these incidents on growth is smaller

the impact of technological innovation on international trade patterns the evidence reconsidered abstract this paper presents some new evidence in relation to the role of technical change in particular industrial innovation on the international competitiveness of the various oecd countries its originality consists primarily of a using a technology output indicator to measure technological performance b presenting and comparing various measures of trade and technological performance for each individual oecd country with the exception of iceland c analysing at a relatively high level of product industry disaggregation the relationship between export performance and technological performance at the same time the very limited scope of the paper has to be emphasized a the analysis is purely static all the evidence presented relates to one year 1977 b most of the results obtained are preliminary and should be further substantiated by more detailed empirical and theoretical research c as a consequence little attention has been paid to policy implications which it was felt could only be discussed properly in a later stage the paper consists of four sections a brief review of the state of the art section 1 a discussion on definitions of technology intensity section 2 the development of the best technology output indicator section 3 and the empirical analysis itself section 4 the following most important results emerge from these various sections a there are serious shortcomings in using average technology intensity as bench mark for classifying products or industries in technology intensive or nontechnology intensive categories b there is a substantial difference between technology intensity as measured on the basis of a technology input proxy rd c yet as between countries the most traditional output and input indicators the number of patents granted and the amount spent on rd d foreign patenting in particular foreign patenting in the united states figs 1 and 2 section 3 is a more reliable technology output proxy than domestic patenting e in terms of technological comparative advantage as opposed to technology intensity it is the small oecd countries as opposed to the large ones which seem to base their trade comparative advantage on technological comparative performance table 7 section 4 1 f at the individual industry level it is found that i for most technology intensive industries defined however in a less restrictive way than us r d intensities a close relation exists between technological performance and export performance and ii that as compared to other country specific resource variables technological performance is the most important trade explanatory variable its elasticity increasing with the technology intensity of industries tables 11 and 12 section 4 2 space constraints prevented us from presenting the data in relation to the inter industry and inter country analysis these can however be obtained from the author

accessing vs sourcing knowledge a comparative study of r d internationalization between emerging and advanced economy firms research and development r d internationalization is on the rise for advanced economy multinationals amnes as well as emerging economy multinationals emnes we study emne r d internationalization by comparing it to that by amnes in the context of an emerging knowledge intensive industry we find that these two are fundamentally different processes while the internationalization of amnes r d activities can largely be explained in terms of the twin strategies of competence exploitation and competence creation emne r d internationalization is rooted in the firms overall catch up strategy to get on par with industry leaders an in depth comparison of knowledge flows reveals that within amnes headquarters often serves the primary source of knowledge for r d subsidiaries in contrast within emnes headquarters accesses knowledge from r d subsidiaries in advanced economies for innovation catch up within this dichotomy the innovative capabilities of emne headquarters develop more slowly and with greater difficulty than those of amne subsidiaries

is technical analysis in the foreign exchange market profitable a genetic programming approach using genetic programming techniques to find technical trading rules we find strong evidence of economically significant out of sample excess returns to those rules for each of six exchange rates over the period 1981 1995 further when the dollar deutsche mark rules are allowed to determine trades in the other markets there is significant improvement in performance in all cases except for the deutsche mark yen betas calculated for the returns according to various benchmark portfolios provide no evidence that the returns to these rules are compensation for bearing systematic risk bootstrapping results on the dollar deutsche mark indicate that the trading rules detect patterns in the data that are not captured by standard statistical models

intraday price change and trading volume relations in the stock and stock option markets this study investigates intraday relations between price changes and trading volume of options and stocks for a sample of firms whose options traded on the cboe during the first quarter of 1986 after purging the price change series of the effects of bid ask spreads multivariate time series analysis is used to estimate the lead lag relation between the price changes in the option and stock markets the results indicate that price changes in the stock market lead the option market by as much as fifteen minutes the analysis of trading volume indicates that the stock market lead may be even longer the intense trading activity in and in fact the very existence of organized stock option markets attest to the economic benefits that these financial contracts provide reduced transaction costs and increased financial leverage are two reasons why trading in the stock option market may be more attractive than trading in the market for the underlying stock in addition these cheaper and more flexible trading opportunities attract new and differently informed investors to the marketplace the resulting increase in trading activity together with the inextricable arbitrage linkage between stock and option prices imply an increase in market efficiency this study investigates empirically the intraday price change and trading volume relations between stocks and options for a sample of firms whose options were actively traded on the chicago board options exchange during the first quarter of 1986 in particular intraday call option price changes are translated into implied stock price changes using the american call option pricing model these intraday implied stock price changes are then compared with the actual stock price changes to identify which if either market leads the other in perfectly functioning capital markets there should be complete simultaneity between the series that is new information disseminating into the marketplace should be reflected in the prices and the trading activity of both securities simultaneously institutional factors however may make the stock option market more attractive to information traders this may cause price changes and trading activity due to new information to be observed in the option market first followed by price

large firms in the production of the world s technology an important case of non globalisation us patenting by 686 of the world s largest manufacturing firms shows that their share of the world s production of technology is less than their share of r d activities and varies greatly amongst sectors in most cases the technological activities of these large firms are concentrated in their home country the characteristics of which influence the volume and trends in their technological activities much more strongly then the international component of these activities at the same time these large firms are major elements in the volume and the pattern of sectoral specializations in their home countries technological activities

price changes of related securities the case of call options and stocks this paper tests the hypothesis that option prices contain information not reflected in con temporaneous stock prices an options transactions data base is used for the purpose the evidence suggests that the magnitude of anticipation of stock prices by option prices is insufficient to overcome the bid ask spread for intra day holding periods implications of the profits in the overnight holding periods are discussed

temporal patterns in foreign exchange returns and options although the foreign exchange market is believed to be one of the most efficient financial markets in the world there is significant evidence that technical analysis is profitable in this market in this study we investigate the ability of information from the options market to supplement the commonly used information on past prices to predict temporal patterns in foreign exchange returns we find that information from the options market improves the performance of technical trading strategies strategies using information from at the money options were more consistently profitable than the most commonly used strategies based on only historical spot exchange rates past prices our results hold out of sample as well as in the late nineties a period when few sources of information have proven reliable consequently options appear to contain valuable information regarding future spot exchange rate movements

ambiguity and underwriter decision processes this paper provides empirical evidence that risk and ambiguity affect underwriters decisions on pricing insurance a field study of primary insurance underwriters in a random sample of commercial property and casualty insurance companies reveals that premiums are significantly higher for risks when there is either ambiguity regarding the probability of a particular event occurring and or uncertainty about the magnitude of the resulting loss the paper suggests economic and organizational rationales for this behaviour and offers several explanations as to why insurers in a competitive market can charge higher prices for ambiguous risks which promise to yield excess profits in the long run

coming home and not moving in examining reshoring firms subnational location choices in the united states the relation between firm characteristics i e size and domestic location choice i e home state versus other of reshoring firms contingent on place i e labour cost innovation intensity

economic linkages across commodity futures hedging and trading implications we investigate cross market trading dynamics in futures contracts written on seemingly unrelated commodities that are consumed by a common industry on the tokyo commodity exchange we find such evidence in natural rubber nr palladium pa and gasoline ga futures markets the automobile industry is responsible for more than 50 of global demand for each of these commodities var estimation reveals short run cross market interaction between nr and ga and from nr to pa cross market influence exerted by pa is felt in longer dynamics with pa volatility volume affecting nr ga volume volatility our findings are robust to lag specification volatility measure and consistent with full bekk garch estimation results further analysis which benchmarks against silver futures market tocom index and topix transportation index confirms that our results are driven by a common industry exposure and not a commodity market factor a simple trading rule that incorporates short run ga and long run pa dynamics to predict nr return yields positive economic profit our study offers new insights into how commodity and equity markets relate at an industry level and implications for multi commodity hedging

the use of fundamental and technical analyses by foreign exchange dealers hong kong evidence abstract this article reports the results of a questionnaire survey conducted in february 1995 on the use by foreign exchange dealers in hong kong of fundamental and technical analyses to form their forecasts of exchange rate movements our findings reveal that 85 of respondents rely on both fundamental and technical analyses for predicting future rate movements at different time horizons at shorter horizons there exists a skew towards reliance on technical analysis as opposed to fundamental analysis but the skew becomes steadily reversed as the length of horizon considered is extended technical analysis is considered slightly more useful in forecasting trends than fundamental analysis but significantly more useful in predicting turning points interest rate related news is found to be a relatively important fundamental factor in exchange rate forecasting while moving average and or other trend following systems are the most useful technical technique

uneven domestic knowledge bases and the success of foreign firms in the usa this paper investigates the effect of within country and across country inequalities on firms fdi performance and finds drivers of success in an advanced host economy the usa differ for firms from developed compared to developing countries returns to fdi for firms from developed countries are significantly correlated with home countries level of economic development in contrast successful developing country firms are from countries with lower within country inequality and reflect the industrial structure associated with developing countries they are concentrated in scale intensive industries and benefit especially from capital investment the findings suggest that fdi reflects rather than disrupts unevenness in knowledge bases globally