the effects of flexible specialization on industrial politics and the labor market the motion picture industry the authors citing historical and statistical evidence spanning three decades examine how the transition to flexibly specialized production organization in the motion picture industry has changed the distribution of work and wages and the definition of skills one important result of that process has been the emergence of a new form of intra occupational labor market segmentation based much less on differences in hourly wage rates than on differential access to hours of work also the reorganization of the production process has altered the relative bargaining power of employers and workers and of different groups within the industry work force resulting in increased conflict among segments of the work force and a strengthening of employers bargaining power vis a vis industry unions

is the corn futures market noisier the impact of high frequency quoting the paper pioneers research on high frequency hf quoting noise in electronically traded agricultural futures markets hf quoting quickly cancelling posted limit orders and replacing them with n

optimal insurance in incomplete markets this paper examines the theory of optimal insurance purchasing in the presence of uninsurable background risk existing theorems concerning the optimal level of insurance and the optimal form of an insurance contract are shown to hold only under restricted market and risk assumptions in particular conditions sufficient for the optimality of full coverage or sufficient for the optimality of deductible policies depend on the correlation between insurable and uninsurable risks these results may provide a partial explanation why existing theory is often contradicted by observable behavior

limit order book as a market for liquidity we develop a dynamic model of an order driven market populated by discretionary liquidity traders these traders must trade yet can choose the type of order and are fully strategic in their decision traders differ by their impatience less patient traders demand liquidity more patient traders provide it three equilibrium patterns are obtained the pattern is determined by three parameters the degree of impatience of the patient traders which we model as the cost of execution delay in providing liquidity their proportion in the population which determines the degree of competition among the liquidity providers and the tick size which is the cost of the minimal price improvement despite its simplicity the model generates a rich set of empirical predictions on the relation between market parameters time to execution and spreads we argue that the economic intuition of this model is so basic its main results must be robust in much more general models

the incentive implications of incomplete insurance the multiplicative case abstract when states of nature are not completely verifiable and payments in a pareto efficient insurance scheme contribute multiplicatively to wealth the insured may be better off in the insured against event depending upon the behavior of relative risk aversion

tax policy the interest elasticity of saving and capital accumulation numerical analysis of theoretical models increasing disillusionment with traditional empirical methods is having a major impact on research methodology which is increasingly turning to simulation analysis based on theoretical models and assumed parameter values in research on saving and wealth accumulation there have been several recent studies consisting of simulation of theoretical models based on the life cycle model a particular focus has been tax policy and capital formation which is the area of concentration of this paper the aim is to analyze in a theoretical simulation context the impact on saving and wealth of an increase in the after tax rate of return to saving generated by a cut in the tax rate on income from capital this paper suggests that such simulation analysis while instructive as to the behavior of the class of models examined and as to the critical channels of influence does not yield a theoretical presumption in favor of cutting taxes on income from capital as a means of stimulating capital formation the development of this literature derives in part from disillusionment with traditional empirical methods many such papers begin by listing a litany of the problems involved in the usual type of empirical analysis before proceeding to simulation of theoretical structures the implicit conclusion at times appears to be that because of the daunting problems of standard empirical methodology the results derived from it can be ignored and that empirical magnitudes can perhaps be discovered by deductive means the temptation to think of the precise numerical results derived from theoretical simulation as empirical can be rather strong it needs to be reemphasized that empirical magnitudes can only be determined by empirical studies in section i the theoretical structure of a zero bequest life cycle model2 is outlined and several numerical simulations of this model are presented these simulations highlight interesting and nontrivial interactions of theoretical parameters and also demonstrate the difficulty involved in attempts to develop robust aggregate implications from such a framework for instance it is argued that summers claim to have developed a prima facie theoretical case for a high interest elasticity of savings 1981a p 537 does not stand up to sensitivity analysis a small change in the assumed rate of pure time preference or in other parametric assumptions generate otherwise plausible cases in which the interest elasticity of aggregate saving is low the experiments conducted in section i are partial equilibrium in the sense that the interest rate is changed exogenously which changes savings and hence the capital stock but the feedback effect of the capital international monetary fund this paper derives from chs 2 and 3 of my doctoral dissertation completed during a research fellowship at the brookings institution financial support was received from brookings and the social science research council i am grateful to henry aaron barry bosworth maxim engers irwin friend laurence kotlikoff franco modigliani joseph pechman duncan ripley robert shiller patricia stack and my supervisor albert ando for comments and guidance on earlier drafts none of the above institutions or individuals is responsible for the views expressed or any remaining errors for example see james tobin and walter dolde betsy white lawrence summers 1978 1981a b g moore alan auerbach and laurence kotlikoff and auerbach kotlikoff and j skinner 2it is popular to establish a sharp dichotomy between life cycle models and bequest models this taxonomy ignores the frequent references to the potential significance of bequests in the writings of the originators of the life cycle hypothesis a distinction between zero bequest life cycle models and life cycle models incorporating bequests is more accurate in terms of doctrinal history see for example albert ando and franco modigliani and modigliani and richard brumberg

the term structure of implied forward volatility recovery and informational content in the corn options market using a flexible method we develop the term structure of volatility implied by corn futures options with differing maturities and evaluate its ability to predict subsequent realized price volatility the implied forward volatilities anticipate realized volatility well for the nearby interval the implied forward volatilities provide unbiased forecasts and are superior to forecasts based on historical volatilities for more distant intervals early year options predict the direction and magnitude of future volatility changes about as well as a three year moving average and better than a naive forecast however later year options display less forecast power in part due to reduced trading activity

new estimates of the elasticity of marginal utility for the uk this paper provides novel empirical evidence on the value of the elasticity of marginal utility eta for the united kingdom eta is a crucial component of the social discount rate sdr which determines the inter temporal trade offs that are acceptable to society using contemporaneous and historical data new estimates are obtained using four revealed preference techniques the equal sacrifice income tax approach the euler equation approach the frisch additive preferences approach and risk aversion in insurance markets a meta analysis indicates parameter homogeneity across approaches and a central estimate of 1 5 for eta the confidence interval excludes unity the value used in official guidance by the uk government the term structure of the sdr is then estimated the result is a short run sdr of 4 5 declining to 4 2 in the very long run this is higher and flatter than the uk official guidance the difference stems from incorrect calibration of social welfare and estimation of the diffusion of growth other things equal the results suggest that current uk guidance might need to be updated

intraday market effects in electronic soybean futures market during non trading and trading hour announcements abstractthis article investigates market reactions to major united states department of agriculture announcements during non trading and trading hours in the soybean futures market using microstruc

high frequency quoting short term volatility in bids and offers at subsecond horizons bids and offers in u s equity markets are more volatile than what would be implied by long term fundamentals to assess costs and consequences this paper suggests that traders random delays latencies interact with quote volatility to generate execution price risk and relative latency costs analysis of the behavior of quote setters suggests that this volatility is more likely to arise from recurrent cycles of undercutting similar to the edgeworth cycles found in product markets rather than mixed strategies of limit order placement

eighths sixteenths and market depth changes in tick size and liquidity provision on the nyse using limit order data provided by the nyse we investigate the impact of reducing the minimum tick size on the liquidity of the market while both spreads and depths quoted and on the limit order book declined after the nyse s change from eighths to sixteenths depth declined throughout the entire limit order book as well the combined e ect of smaller spreads and reduced cumulative limit order book depth has made liquidity demanders trading small orders better o however traders who submitted

approximate aggregation under uncertainty abstract for a collection of agents with von neumann morgenstern preferences a price independent income distribution and identical probability beliefs there exists a von neumann morgenstern approximate aggregator the risk tolerance of the approximate aggregator is equal to the sum of the individual agent risk tolerances at prices which yield constant risk free contingent consumption the application of the approximate aggregator to standard asset pricing models in finance is discussed briefly

relative risk aversion around the world abstract in this letter the hypothesis of constant relative risk aversion is examined for 15 countries using property liability insurance data for more than half the cases it is shown that crra can not be rejected following that the degree of relative risk aversion is estimated and found to usually lie between one and two

a survey measure of risk aversion abstract we use survey data on the well being of individuals to measure attitudes toward risk risk neutrality cannot be rejected by the data

the behavior of bid ask spreads in the electronically traded corn futures market this is the first paper to analyze liquidity costs in agricultural futures markets based on the observed bid ask spread bas faced by market participants the results reveal a highly liquid corn market that mostly offers order execution at minimum cost the bas responds negatively to volume and positively to price volatility but also affects volume traded and price volatility while statistically significant these responses on a cents bushel or a percentage basis are generally small liquidity costs are also virtually impervious to short term changes in demand for spreading and trend following trader activity as well as differences from day of the week changes in market activity much larger cents bushel and percentage changes in bas occur during commodity index trader roll periods and on usda report release days the roll period findings indicate a sunshine trading effect while announcement effects identify the importance of unexpected information and adverse selection on order execution costs overall our research demonstrates that the transition to electronic trading in the corn futures market has led to low and stable liquidity costs despite the market turbulence in 2008 2009

the design of an optimal insurance policy almost every phase of economic behavior is affected by uncertainty the economic system has adapted to uncertainty by developing methods that facilitate the reallocation of risk among individuals and firms the most apparent and familiar form for shifting risks is the ordinary insurance policy previous insurance decision analyses can be divided into those in which the insurance policy was exogenously specified see john gould jan mossin and vernon smith and those in which it was not see karl borch 1960 and kenneth arrow 1971 1973 in this paper the pioneering work of borch and arrow the derivation of the optimal insurance contract form from the model is synthesized and extended

level shifts and the illusion of long memory in economic time series when applied to time series processes containing occasional level shifts the log periodogram gph estimator often erroneously finds long memory for a stationary short memory process with a slowly varying level i show that the gph estimator is substantially biased and derive an approximation to this bias the asymptotic bias lies on the 0 1 interval and its exact value depends on the ratio of the expected number of level shifts to a user defined bandwidth parameter using this result i formulate the modified gph estimator which has a markedly lower bias i illustrate this new estimator via applications to soybean prices and stock market volatility

continuous workout mortgages efficient pricing and systemic implications abstract this paper studies the continuous workout mortgage cwm a two in one product a fixed rate home loan coupled with negative equity insurance to advocate its viability in mitigating financial fragility in order to tackle the many issues that cwms embrace we perform a range of tasks we optimally price cwms and take a systemic market based approach stipulating that mortgage values and payments should be linked to housing prices and adjusted downward to prevent negative equity we illustrate that amortizing cwms can be the efficient home financing choice for many households we price cwms as american option style defaulting debt in conjunction with prepayment within a continuous time analytic framework we introduce random prepayments via the intensity approach of jarrow and turnbull 1995 we also model the optimal embedded option to default whose exercise is motivated by decreasing random house prices we adapt the barone adesi and whaley 1987 baw approach to work within amortizing mortgage context we derive new closed form and new analytical approximation methodologies which apply both for pricing cwms as well as for pricing the standard us 30 year fixed rate mortgage frm

labour market segmentation and workers careers the case of the italian knitwear industry this paper reports on empirical research into the labour market in the knitwear and ready to wear industry in the province of jvjodena emilia in particular it looks at the careers of three categories of workers homeworkers those employed on the production lines of larger firms and artisans 1 italy in common with many other industrialised capitalist countries has witnessed a growing decentralisation of production this tendency has been differently interpreted but a consensus is emerging that such developments are not evidence of economic backward ness 2 on the contrary an industrial structure consisting of firms of different size but with a large number of small and even microscopic enterprises is increasingly being recog nised as one possible avenue of economic development taking this for granted the aim of these notes is to investigate the structure of the labour market in a prosperous area typified by economic growth which has the small firm as its base element

business organization segmentation and location taylor m and thrift n 1983 business organization segmentation and location reg studies 17 445 465 this paper is intended to provide a coherent theoretical framework for industrial geography industrial economics and organization theory based on the notion of the segmentation of business organizations the literature on dualism and segmentation of business organizations is reviewed and found wanting an alternative process oriented account of segmentation of the business organization is presented which can account for the structural variations in present day developed economies the geographical implications of the framework are brought out

productive decentralization or indigenous growth small manufacturing enterprises and regional development in central portugal lewis j r and williams a m 1987 productive decentralization or indigenous growth small manufacturing enterprises and regional development in central portugal reg studies 21 343 361 small firms are crucial to the portuguese economy and have been important in the recent expansion of industrial activity away from core regions a survey of the formation and development of manufacturing enterprises in four contrasting rural locations within the central region tested the relevance of explanations based on north italian evidence of productive decentralization and spatial spread however analysis of employment characteristics inter firm linkages and conditions of firm formation reveals the dominance of independent and indigenous growth in the present wave of industrialization variations in firm characteristics between industrial sectors and economic environments indicate the need for more effective promotion policies not least to contain intra regional inequalities lewis j r et williams a m 1

the transition to flexible specialisation in the us film industry external economice the division of labour and the crossing of industrial divides there is increasing evidence that mass production methods are losing their dominance in the advanced industrial economies and that various forms of flexible production organization are on the rise the transition from mass production organization to flexible specialization is analyzed in detail through a case study of the film industry where it is shown that a system of production once based on product standardization high levels of vertical integration and stable oligopolistic market structures has after a period of vertical disintegration given way to a production system based on a deep division of labor between firms and high levels of flexibility in both product design and output levels the transition may be the result of increasing external economies of scale stemming from the development of the industry s social division of labor copyright 1989 by oxford university press

the recovery of risk preferences from actual choices since its introduction the expected utility hypothesis has been widely used in the construction of economic models more recently attention has focused on the conditions under which it is possible in principle to recover individual investors risk preferences from their demand for assets dybvig and polemarchakis 2 this paper represents a first attempt to recover preferences operationally from data on the actual demand for assets numerous difficulties are encountered in attempting to measure preferences toward risk in a real world setting preferences are revealed through the choices of an individual but in an uncertain world these choices also depend on his expectations of future events hence an immediate problem arises in separating the influences of each on such decisions problems can also arise in measuring other variables such as wealth which influence choices because of these difficulties efforts to classify and measure an individual s risk preferences have been confined to direct assessments in hypothetical environments e g kahneman and tversky 4 and keeney and raiffa 5 pp 203 212 2 in these studies the authors assumed that stated preferences are accurate indicators of actual behavior the question remains however whether individuals actually behave in the way their assessments predict the purpose of this note is to make some progress in answering this question in it an experiment is described which infers an individual s risk preferences from his actual choices in a real world environment specifically the risk aversion of a dealer in u s government securities is assessed directly and then estimated statistically from his actual demand for bills in the weekly treasury auctions the distribution of returns used in the analysis are calculated from the forecasts made by the dealer himself in addition to introducing new procedures for measuring preferences this study provides insights into the reliability of direct assessments in predicting the actual behavior

regional clustering of high technology based firms opto electronics in three countries hendry c brown j and defillippi r 2000 regional clustering of high technology based firms opto electronics in three countries reg studies 34 129 144 industrial districts are seen as generating significant advantages in production and innovation however the way concentrations of firms actually relate to one another is often assumed this paper draws on an international study into the opto electronics industry to examine the extent and significance of localized inter company trading and network relationships in six regions national and international relationships are found to be much stronger than local ones this is a function of customer and supplier markets which derive from the technological characteristics of the industry and the way its markets have been created such factors are important for understanding the potential for the development of industrial districts in high technology sectors hendry c brown j et defillippi r 2000 grappes regionales d entreprises a la pointe de la