the inflation tax in a real business cycle model money is incorporated into a real business cycle model using a cash in advance constraint the model economy is used to analyze whether the business cycle is different in high inflation and low inflation economies and to analyze the impact of variability in the growth rate of money in addition the welfare cost of the inflation tax is measured and the steady state properties of high and low inflation economies are compared

what do interest rates reveal about the functioning of real business cycle models abstract this paper begins by documenting the extent to which the predictions of standard real business cycle rbc models are incompatible with observed movements in real interest rates the main finding of the paper is that extending the baseline model to include habit persistence in consumption and adjustment costs to capital significantly improves the model s empirical performance in our evaluation of the model s performance we take special care of estimating and testing predictions of the model using both moments drawn directly from the data and moments calculated after identifying shocks to the stochastic trend

salaries of recent male and female college graduates educational and labor market effects why do recent male college graduates earn more than their female counterparts the author explores this question by estimating several salary regressions using data from the 1993 94 nces baccalaureate and beyond longitudinal study the results suggest that labor market variables outweighed academic variables in their contribution to the gender salary gap of the academic variables gender differences in total credits accounted for more of the salary gap than did gender differences in majors grades or institution attended of the labor market variables gender differences in job sector industry and hours worked had the largest effect on gender differences in salaries differences in how men and women searched for and selected first jobs appear to have had little impact on gender differences in salary most important as much as 75 of the wage gap remains unexplained by both the academic and labor market variables

assessing the case for social experiments rs ecent academic debates pit two alternative approaches to policy evaluation against one another the first is the experimental approach based on the random assignment of accepted program applicants to a recipient or treatment group and a non recipient or control group the second is the nonexperimental or econometric approach that uses a variety of microdata sources statistical methods and behavioral models to compare the outcomes of participants in social programs with those of nonparticipants the central question addressed in this paper is whether or not randomized social experiments aid in securing answers to basic questions about the evaluation of social programs there are many distinct and complementary approaches to the study of the impact of public policy including full general equilibrium analysis of policy impacts tinbergen 1956 auerbach and kotlikoff 1987 shoven and whalley 1992 kydland and prescott 1991 and less ambitious partial equilibrium microeconomic structural research programs such as those designed to estimate the impact of taxes on labor supply both approaches offer answers to many interesting counterfactual policy questions but their credibility rests critically on the quality of the empirical input used to generate their answers

swimming upstream floating downstream comparing women s relative wage progress in the united states and denmark applying a new decomposition method to u s psid and danish longitudinal sample data the authors compare how u s and danish gender wage gaps developed between 1983 and 1995 in denmark they find the wage gap widened because the worsening in women s relative returns to observable human capital attributes as well as in their ranking relative to men in unobserv able productive attributes more than offset their wage gains from improved observable qualifications relative to men s in the united states in contrast the gender convergence in qualifications offset adverse influences including in creasing wage dispersion throughout the labor market to result in a narrowing of the gap the largest increase in the gap in denmark was experienced by women in the top earnings decile and the largest decline in the gap in the united states affected those at the top and in the middle of the distribution

the econometrics of the general equilibrium approach to business cycles early in this century american institutionists and members of the german historical school attacked and rightfully so neoclassical economic theory for not being quantitative this deficiency bothered ragnar frisch and motivated him along with irving fisher joseph schumpeter and others to organize the econometric society in 1930 the aim of the society was to foster the development of quantitative economic theory that is the development of what frisch labeled econometrics soon after its inception the society started the journal econometrica frisch was the journal s first editor and served in this capacity for twenty five years

comment on f e kydland and e c prescott the econometrics of the general equilibrium approach to business cycles real business cycle theory is cast in a competitive general equilibrium setting with infinitely lived households and a propagation mechanism allowing real shocks to produce business cycle fluctuations the models show that substantial fluctuations can be generated by real technology shocks in a competitive framework and thus reflect a pareto efficient response to changes in intertemporal possibilities for substitution the central point of this finding is that fluctuations do not necessarily reflect inefficiencies as is often implicitly implied by in particular the keynesian literature this is an observation which most people would accept although there are substantial reservations concerning the assumptions underlying the models and thus the importance of this observation however a new empirical approach known as calibration has also come to be associated with real business cycle models authors belonging to this branch of the literature interpret the results of such calibrations as empirical justification for their theories prescott 1986 p 38 goes as far as to conclude that theory predicts what is observed indeed if the economy did not display the business cycle phenomena there would be a puzzle although it is uncontroversial to regard calibrations previously known as simulations as a useful way of illustrating properties of theoretical models having a complexity which precludes an analytical solution it is less obvious that calibration can be seen as a test of a theory actually protagonists of real business cycle theories tend to go even further by suggesting that this empirical methodology is a logical consequence of the general equilibrium approach this raises the question does calibration teach us something about the model or about reality

indivisible labor lotteries and equilibrium abstract this paper considers an economy where labor is indivisible and agents are identical although the discontinuity in labor supply at the individual level disappears as a result of aggregation it is shown that indivisible labor has strong consequences for the aggregate bahavior of the economy it is also shown that optimal allocations involve lotteries over employment and consumption

decomposing wage residuals unmeasured skill or statistical artifact the decomposition of wage residuals into standard deviation and percentile ranks can be misleading because the two measures are not necessarily independent with rising wage inequality the mean percentile rank of low wage groups will rise simply because more dispersed distributions have thicker tails this interpretation is consistent with the observed stability of gender and racial wage gaps in contrast the unmeasured skill interpretation of wage residuals would predict widening wage gaps in the face of rising wage inequality unless one posits an increase in the level of unobserved skill for women and blacks

on the econometrics of world business cycles over the past 10 or 15 years academic interest in business cycles has recovered to a level not matched perhaps since the 1930s in his editorial statement in the first issue of econometric8 in 1933 ragnar frisch not only introduced a new word econometrics which he defined as quantitative economic theory but also listed business cycle theory among four fields of particular interest to econometricians this inclusion reflected the views not only of frisch but also of hayek 1931 tinbergen 1935 and others this interest waned however in the 1950s and 1960s a major factor leading to its reawakening was the paper by robert lucas 1977 on understanding business cycles perhaps this course of events was not surprising a prerequisite for making much progress in this field was dynamic general equilibrium theory by the 1970s the basic theory had been developed and neoclassical growth theory evolved as the dominant framework for business cycle analysis

real business cycle theory wisdom or whimsy abstract this paper assesses the empirical plausibility of the view that aggregate productivity stocks account for most of the variability in post world war ii us output we argue that the type of evidence forwarded by proponents of this proposition is too fragile to be believable the answer could be 70 as kydland and prescott 1989 claim but the data contain almost no evidence against either the view that the answer is really 5 or that the answer is really 200 moreover point estimates of the importance of technology shocks are extremely sensitive to small perturbations in the theory depending on the sample period investigated allowing for labor hoarding behavior in an otherwise standard rbc model reduces the ability of technology shocks to account for aggregate fluctuations by between 30 to 60

robbins on economic generalizations and reality in the light of modern econometrics this paper examines lionel robbins critical attitude towards formal empirical work from the standpoint of modern econometrics it argues that his attitude towards empirical work rested on indefensible assumptions and that he failed to realise that the role he saw for empirical work undermined his belief in the primacy of economic theory this matters because robbins attitudes are echoed in modern economics best exemplified by the calibration methodology of kydland and prescott which is vulnerable to similar criticisms

why the gender gap in wages narrowed in the 1980s since 1976 the gender gap in wages on average declined by about 1 per year this article focuses on identifying the factors underlying this trend three data sets are analyzed the current population survey the panel study of income dynamics and the national longitudinal survey we find that convergence in measurable work related characteristics schooling and work experience explains one third to one half the narrowing the remainder is attributable to a relative increase in women s returns to experience as well as to declining wages in blue collar work and other factors

the limits of business cycle research assessing the real business cycle model the real business cycle model dominates business cycle research in the new classical tradition typically real business cycle modelers both offer the bold conjecture that business cycles are equilibrium phenomena driven by technology shocks and also novel strategies for assessing the success of the model this article critically examines the real business model and the assessment strategy surveys the literature supporting and opposing the model and evaluates the evidence on the empirical success of the model it argues that on the preponderance of the evidence the real business cycle model is refuted copyright 1997 by oxford university press

production growth and business cycles ii new directions abstract this paper outlines new directions for investigations of real business cycle models consideration of stochastic growth of exogenous and endogenous forms analysis of suboptimal outcomes arising due to externalities of distorting taxes and implications of labor market heterogeneity

methodological and empirical issues in real business cycle theory abstract in this paper we argue that the major impact of the rbc literature has been to propose a new methodology for macroeconomics this methodology is distinguished first by the importance it attributes to the empirical description of the phenomena to be explained and second by the use of this description in conjunction with quantitative theorizing i e the construction of computable general equilibrium models whose characteristic statistics match those of the data in accordance with this approach we first report on the current state of knowledge concerning business cycle regularities and conclude that additional empirical effort is called for in order to arrive at the appropriate basis for theorizing we then examine the performance of existing models and evaluate the case for integrating monetary factors and demand shocks into them lastly we review the recent efforts to explain the employment variability puzzle and argue that the search for a solution naturally leads to the incorporation of significant non walrasian features into the rbc framework

rank regressions wage distributions and the gender gap in this paper we propose a novel rank based procedure to decompose changes in the gender wage gap into three components changes in the skill distribution changes in the wage structure and improvements in the position of women in a distribution of reference using cps data from 1979 and 1991 we perform the decomposition at each percentile of the wage distribution and show that the results are sensitive to the choice of distribution of reference male versus overall wage distribution we also find that relative wage gains of women may have been a source of increasing wage inequality among men

auctions experiments and contingent valuation laboratory experiments are a welcome development that promise to make a significant contribution to the study of economic behavior heiner 1985 plott 1982 smith 1982 1985 while relatively new to economics controlled laboratory studies of human behavior have long constituted the core of experimental psychology where there is a wealth of methodological experience from which experimental economists might profitably draw in particular current attempts to apply laboratory auction methods to valuing nonmarket environmental goods would be improved by more rigorous experimental design and data analysis procedures

cost of business cycles with indivisibilities and liquidity constraints it is almost universally agreed that individuals face incomplete insurance markets and cannot perfectly insure against the idiosyncratic risk in this paper simple general equilibrium models with incomplete insurance markets are examined in order to assess the impact of imperfect insurance on the magnitude of the welfare costs of business cycles two versions of incomplete insurance markets are considered and certain statistical properties of the equilibrium stochastic processes in these environments are compared with those of a perfect insurance economy

mean reversion in equilibrium asset prices this paper demonstrates that negative serial correlation in long horizon stock returns is consistent with an equilibrium model of asset pricing when investors display only a moderate desire to smooth their consumption commonly used measures of mean reversion in stock prices calculated from historical returns data nearly always lie within a 60 percent confidence interval of the median of the monte carlo distributions implied by the authors equilibrium model from this evidence the authors conclude that the degree of serial correlation in the data could plausibly have been generated by their model copyright 1990 by american economic association

econometrics and business cycle empirics business cycle empirics have long been a central arena for the debate about the roles of economic theory and econometrics in modelling economic time series data some famous historical examples are moore i9i4 keynes i939 and koopmans i947 sources for potential disagreements include that the entire economic system is involved and unobservable stochastic forces seem more than usually prominent in determining the outcome not only do these constitute two aspects about which it is hard to theorise they are equally difficult to model empirically there are both positive arguments for and negative arguments against according a dominant role to either theory or evidence not least because it is unclear what constitutes admissible instances of either in the absence of the other we first review what precludes a purely theoretical approach what prevents a purely empirical approach and hence why an interactive approach is imperative even so both the relative importance of the two ingredients and their substantive contents are likely to remain at issue first concerning the economy considerable empirical evidence suggests that it is a dynamic non linear high dimensional and evolving entity so studying it is difficult society and social systems alter over time laws change and technological innovations occur so establishing any invariants of an economic system is not easy such difficulties adversely afflict both theory and empirical modelling secondly concerning the observations time series data in economics are heterogeneous non stationary time dependent and interdependent so it is difficult to acquire knowledge from the available empirical information again such factors also make it hard to theorise about the properties of the underlying system a more direct critique of the empirical enterprise is that samples are short and highly aggregated economic magnitudes are inaccurately measured are subject to considerable revision and important variables are not measured or are unobservable so inferences are both imprecise and tentative combined with the simultaneity non constancy and high dimensionality of economic data a purely empirical approach seems to many to be precluded other criticisms of econometric approaches include worries about data mining pretest biases a lack of genuine identifiability and collinearity sometimes combined with a belief that theory can compensate an overemphasis on a

the computational experiment an econometric tool an economic experiment consists of the act of placing people in an environment desired by the experimenter who then records the time paths of their economic behavior performing experiments that use actual people at the level of national economies is obviously not practical but constructing a model economy and computing the economic behavior of the model s people is such experiments are termed computational this essay specifies the steps in designing a computational experiment to address some well posed quantitative question the authors emphasize that the computational experiment is an econometric tool used in the task of deriving the quantitative implications of theory

the payment of public sector workers in the uk reconciliation with north american findings abstract in common with recent north american evidence the highest wage premiums for uk public sector workers are found in the lower tail of the wage distribution evidence of public sector underpayment at the opposite extreme of the earnings spectrum is also apparent

swimming upstream trends in the gender wage differential in the 1980s using michigan panel study of income dynamics data for 1979 and 1988 we analyze how a falling gender wage gap occurred despite changes in wage structure unfavorable to low wage workers the decrease is traced to gender specific factors which more than counterbalanced changes in measured and unmeasured prices working against women supply shifts net of demand were unfavorable for women generally and hurt high skilled more than middle and low skilled women by analyzing wages we find support for the notion of a gender twist in supply and demand having its largest negative effect on high skilled women

the economic consequences of parental leave mandates lessons from europe this study investigates the economic consequences of rights to paid parental leave in nine european countries over the 1969 through 1993 period since women use virtually all parental leave in most nations men constitute a reasonable comparison group and most of the analysis examines how changes in paid leave affect the gap between female and male labor market outcomes the employment to populations ratios of women in their prime childbearing years are also compared with those of corresponding aged men and older females parental leave is associated with increases in women s employment but with reductions in their relative wages at extended durations

patinkin on keynes and meltzer abstract don patinkin s discussion of alternative interpretations of keyne s general theory gave considerable weight to an author s motivation particularly mine patinkin also restates his view that the general theory offers a short run disequilibrium approach i suggest that textual interpretation in economics should not consider motives because better methods are available and are now used i propose three standards applying these standards i find little support for patinkin s interpretation of the general theory although my interpretation better meets the three standards i conclude that the general theory does not have a single correct interpretation