politics growth and inequality in rural china does it pay to join the party abstract economic reform is often constrained because rank and file bureaucrats responsible for implementation have vested interests that oppose change drawing on an unusual longitudinal survey data set for a representative rural county in northern china we show an alternative positive scenario consistent with the presence of an implicit performance based incentive contract that ties the household incomes of local officials to market liberalization increases in consumer demand and the provision of local public goods the mechanisms appear to be tolerated as the fruits of growth are shared fairly equitably thus allowing implementation of a politically and economically self reinforcing reform process

the labor market status of immigrants effects of the unemployment rate at arrival and duration of residence combining current population survey samples from november 1979 april 1983 june 1986 and june 1988 all of which included data on country of birth and year of immigration the authors examine pat

a decomposition analysis of the trend in uk income inequality post war britain has experienced a number of dramatic demographic and social changes that have undoubtedly influenced the distribution of income there has been a rise in the number of pensioners whose incomes are relatively low a considerable increase in the number of young and old households living on their own and a remarkable expansion in the proportion of working wives the potential importance of these structural changes suggests that their impact on the income distribution needs to be examined systematically before any attempt can be made to interpret the observed trend in overall income inequality adequately the method usually adopted for this purpose attempts to create a comparable time series of distributions based on the structural characteristics pertaining in one particular year for example if we wished to investigate the effect of shifts in the age structure of the population this approach would disaggregate the distribution in one year tl and estimate what the distribution would have been like if the age structure had been the same as that observed in some other year to on the assumption that other distributional characteristics such as ageincome differentials and inequality within age groups remain invariant to this demographic change the comparison between the actual distribution at t1 and the constructed distribution at t1 with to s age structure is taken to indicate the impact of changes in the age structure over the period concerned this comparison can be presented in terms of quantile shares summary measures of inequality or the entire lorenz curves this approach known as shift share analysis or standardising the inequality series see semple i975 love and wolfson i976 dinwiddy and reed i977 royal commission i977 rowley and henderson i978 macleod and horner i980 is perfectly adequate for simple and straightforward structural changes when several changes are occurring simultaneously however it becomes difficult to identify the contribution of the individual factors and to assess their relative importance to the overall trend in inequality furthermore the combined impact of several structural influences will not in general sum up to the inequality change requiring explanation the purpose of this paper is to propose an alternative method of analysing

income inequality and health lessons from a refugee residential assignment program this paper examines the effect of income inequality on health for a group of particularly disadvantaged individuals refugees our analysis draws on longitudinal hospitalization records coupled with a settlement policy where swedish authorities assigned newly arrived refugees to their first area of residence the policy was implemented in a way that provides a source of plausibly random variation in initial location the results reveal no statistically significant effect of income inequality on the risk of being hospitalized this finding holds also for most population subgroups and when separating between different types of diagnoses our estimates are precise enough to rule out large effects of income inequality on health

is unemployment really scarring effects of unemployment experiences on wages joblessness leaves permanent scars on individuals they not only lose income during periods of joblessness they are also further scarred by these experiences when they find employment a spell of unemployment is found to carry a wage penalty of about 6 on re entry in britain and after three years they are earning 14 less compared to what they would have received in the absence of unemployment the scars are also carried into their second employment spell the first spell of joblessness is found to cause the most damage redundancy seems to be less stigmatising

rethinking inequality decomposition with evidence from rural china we examine inequality decompositions by income source and describe a general regression based approach for decomposing inequality the approach provides an efficient and flexible way to quantify the roles of variables like education and age in a multivariate context we illustrate the method using survey data from china the empirical results demonstrate how sharply different conclusions can emerge for different decomposition rules we explain how these differences reflect the treatment of equally distributed sources of income and we discuss implications for how results from inequality decomposition are interpreted a renewed interest in economic growth political economy and the distribution of income has again placed the economics of income inequality firmly on the academic research agenda relatively poor performances in latin america have been contrasted with success stories in east asia and recent evidence on the changing income distributions of emerging economic giants like china has

electricity planning and implementation in sub saharan africa a systematic review abstract universal electricity access is an important development objective and the focus of a number of key global un initiatives while robust electricity planning is widely believed to be a prerequisite for effective electrification to date no comprehensive overview of electricity planning research has been undertaken on sub saharan africa the world region with the lowest access rates this paper reviews quantitative and qualitative electricity planning and related implementation research considering each of the 49 sub saharan african countries the four regional power pools and the sub continent as a whole applying a broad understanding of electricity planning and a practical limit of 20 reviewed articles per country and region 306 relevant peer reviewed journal articles are included in this review a general classification scheme is introduced that classifies the planning literature along the addressed value chain depth number of different analysed criteria and number of evaluated decision alternatives the literature is found to be strongly clustered in a few countries with less than 5 identified relevant articles in 36 of the 49 countries the total amount of articles per year is clearly increasing over time addressing technology choice operation distribution and implementation analyses although including different high level criteria in analysing electricity systems is common the literature is only starting to use formalised multi criteria decision making mcdm tools the review indicates that 63 of relevant articles favour renewable energy technologies for their given problems frequently mentioned success factors for electrification in sub saharan africa include adequate policy design sufficient finance and favourable political conditions while considerable regional and methodological literature gaps are apparent the literature in this review identifies a rich and fruitful ground for future research to fill these gaps

urban biased policies and rising income inequality in china since the start of economic reforms in 1978 china has experienced the largest increase in income inequality of all countries for which comparable data are available according to the world bank 1997 china s gini coefficient increased from 28 2 in 1981 to 38 8 in 1995 based on official survey data another study that used internationally standard definitions for incomes estimated china s gini ratio at 38 2 in 1988 and 45 2 in 1995 a level that already surpassed many developing economies in asia azizur khan and carl riskin 1998 are these income inequality changes the consequence of institutional reforms that replaced egalitarian rewards with work incentives employment contracts and labor mobility this paper uses household survey data collected by china s state statistical bureau ssb to investigate the sources and causes of this rising inequality by analyzing gini ratios and generalized entropy measures i decompose the overall inequality into three sectoral components i inequality within rural areas ii inequality within urban areas and iii sectoral disparity the data indicate that increases in rural urban income differentials have been the driving factor behind the rising overall inequality in china i argue that urbanbiased policies and institutions including labor mobility restrictions welfare systems and financial policies of inflation subsidies and investment credits to the urban sector are responsible for the long term rural urban divide and the recent increases in disparity

powering africa meeting the financing and reform challenges africa faces chronic power problems including insufficient generation capacity low connectivity poor reliability and high costs all of which constrain development power capacity additions in sub saharan africa excl sa since the 1990 s were minuscule historically investments in the power sector in africa have come mostly from governments or public utilities with foreign aid support in recent years these sources of funding have been flat the fastest new sources of funding are from independent power producers ipps and from china to understand the determinant of the new sources the paper analyses the effect of several key factor and find non expected results such as there is no obvious correlation between unbundling or the presence of an independent regulator and the level of private investment through ipps or that there is no correlation between chinese investment in generation and resource rich countries dispelling the myth that chinese firms are only interested in africa s resources the paper delivers several recommendations that indicate that more attention needs to be given to issues related to planning procurement and contracting as well as securing revenue flows jel classification o13 o25 l94

rural urban disparity and sectoral labour allocation in china this study examines china s rural urban segmentation and its causes in the context of economic reforms household survey and aggregate data indicate a v shaped process in which rural urban consumption and income differentials decreased between 1978 and 1985 but then have continually increased to historically high levels this sectoral division is consistent with production function estimates based on provincial data that reveal higher labour productivity in urban state owned industries than in rural industries and agriculture to explain the v shaped change we argue that the precedent of successful rural reforms raised farmers relative earnings but the remaining obstacles to an efficient sectoral allocation of labour have prevented china from eliminating dualism recent financial policies consisting of urban price subsidies and increased investment credits have also had influential distribution effects that are biased against the rural sector

do employers use unemployment as a sorting criterion when hiring evidence from a field experiment the stigma associated with long term unemployment spells could create large inefficiencies in labor markets while the existing literature points toward large stigma effects it has proven difficult to estimate causal relationships using data from a field experiment we find that long term unemployment spells in the past do not matter for employers hiring decisions suggesting that subsequent work experience eliminates this negative signal nor do employers treat contemporary short term unemployment spells differently suggesting that they understand that worker firm matching takes time however employers attach a negative value to contemporary unemployment spells lasting at least nine months providing evidence of stigma effects

africa energy future alternative scenarios and their implications for sustainable development strategies abstract the long term forecasting of energy supply and demand is of prime importance in africa due to the steady increase in energy requirements the non availability of sufficient resources the high dependence on fossil fuels to meet these requirements and the global concerns over the energy induced environmental issues this paper is concerned with modelling possible future paths for africa s energy future and the related emissions future energy demand is forecasted based on socio economic variables such as gross domestic product income per capita population and urbanisation the long range energy alternative planning system leap modelling framework is employed to analyse and project energy demand and the related emissions under alternative strategies for the period of 2010 2040 results of scenarios including business as usual bau policies moderate energy access and accelerate energy access policies renewable energies promotion and energy efficiency policies and their environmental implications are provided the study provides some policy insights and identifies synergies and trade offs relating to the potential for energy policies to promote universal energy access enable a transition to renewable energy and mitigate climate change for a sustainable development

the impact of youth unemployment on adult unemployment in the ncds using the national child development survey this paper looks at cumulated experience of unemployment highlighting how unemployment experience is concentrated on a minority of the workforce over extended periods low educational attainment ability not captured by education financial deprivation and behavioural problems in childhood raise a person s susceptibility to unemployment there is strong evidence of structural dependence induced by early unemployment experience for men but only minor persistence for women attacking low educational achievement and preventing the build up of substantial periods in unemployment as youths may reduce the extent to which a minority of men spend a large part of their working lives unemployed

irrigation agricultural performance and poverty reduction in china the overall goal of our paper is to understand the impact that irrigation in china has had on grain production and incomes in general and income and poverty alleviation in poor areas in particular the paper seeks to meet three objectives first we describe the relationship among irrigation status yields and household crop revenue second we seek to understand the magnitude and nature of the effect that irrigation has on yields and crop revenue finally we seek to understand the impact that irrigation has on incomes in poor areas our analysis shows that irrigation contributes to increases in yields for almost all crops and in income for farmers in all areas the importance of crop income in poor areas and the strong relationship between crop revenue and irrigation provides evidence of the importance of irrigation in past and future poverty alleviation in china we also show that in the majority of the villages that invested in new irrigation returns are positive even after accounting for increases in capital and production costs 2005 elsevier ltd all rights reserved

the effect of implicit contracts on the movement of wages over the business cycle evidence from micro data in this paper we address the question of whether wages are affected by labor market conditions in a manner more consistent with a contract approach than with a standard spot market model from a simple implicit contract model we derive implications about the links between wages and past labor market conditions using individual data from the current population survey and the panel study of income dynamics we find that an implicit contract model with costless mobility describes these links better than either a simple spot market model or an implicit contract model with costly mobility

the wage curve a review in the wage qurve david g blancflower and andrew j oswald argue that there is a fundamental negative relation between wages and the unemployment rate in a worker s local labor market blancflower and oswald use large scale micro data sets to estimate this relation for the united states britain and 10 other countries i review their empirical methods and findings and provide some further evidence on the nature of the wage curve relationship in the united states i conclude that there is a strong statistical correlation between rates of pay and local unemployment although the interpretation of this correlation remains unresolved this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

the cost of providing electricity to africa abstract sub saharan africa lacks electricity we estimate the cost of providing electricity to the region to do so we build an optimisation model that links the electricity demand to the supply and links the supply to the generation distribution and transmission of electricity between countries to the best of our knowledge such a model is novel in the literature we determine that the investment cost of providing electricity to sub saharan africa over a 10 year period is between 160 and 215 billion u s dollars depending on assumptions for electricity access and the cross country electricity trade although the electricity trade increases the investment cost estimate moderately it provides a high return to african countries and is cost efficient overall

public investment and regional inequality in rural china this paper develops a method for decomposing the contributions of various types of public investment to regional inequality and applies the method to rural china public investments are found to have contributed to production growth in both the agricultural and rural non agricultural sectors but their contributions to regional inequality have differed by type of investment and the region in which they are made all types of investment in the least developed western region reduce regional inequality whereas additional investments in the coastal and central regions worsen regional inequality investments in rural education and agricultural r d in the western region have the largest and most favorable impacts on reducing regional inequality

do when and where matter initial labor market conditions and immigrant earnings this article investigates the long term effects on immigrant earnings and employment of labour market conditions encountered upon arrival we find that early earnings assimilation depends crucially on a favourable national labour market exposure to high local unemployment rates also affects individuals for at least ten years to handle the issue of selective migration we compare refugees entering sweden during a severe and unexpected recession to refugees arriving during a preceding economic boom the analysis of effects at the local level exploits a governmental refugee settlement policy to get exogenous variation in local labour market conditions

markets and inequality in rural china parallels with the past after 30 years of egalitarian rhetoric and collectivist practice the introduction of market reforms to rural china entailed obvious risks for policymakers increases in average income might not compensate for the inequality generated by market based income determination concern for this possibility may help explain the slow relaxation of administrative control over the allocation of resources like land in order to evaluate the effect of market reforms we could begin by comparing the current gini coefficient to that which prevailed during the collective era see louis putterman 1993 for early evidence yet this might tell us little about the specific impact of market organization on income determination government policies such as collective land ownership mobility restrictions and fertility limits cloud the picture furthermore industrialization though itself a product of the reforms has changed the basis upon which individuals earn income isolating a pure effect of market organization is a difficult but important task since many current chinese policies reflect an ambivalent attitude toward decentralized market based resource allocation we offer a few suggestions on issues that need to be considered as this evaluation proceeds by exploring current inequality in rural northeast china from the vantage point of the 1930 s we begin with the observation that the level of inequality is similar in 1995 and 1935 and moreover that most contemporary inequality exists within villages as was the case in the 1930 s we then focus on two institu

ethnic enclaves and the economic success of immigrants evidence from a natural experiment recent immigrants tend to locate in ethnic enclaves within metropolitan areas the economic consequence of living in such enclaves is still an unresolved issue we use an immigrant policy initiative in sweden when government authorities distributed refugee immigrants across locales in a way that may be considered exogenous this policy initiative provides a unique natural experiment which allows us to estimate the causal effect on labor market outcomes of living in enclaves we find substantive evidence of sorting across locations when sorting is taken into account living in enclaves improves labor market outcomes for instance the earnings gain associated with a standard deviation increase in ethnic concentration is in the order of four to five percent

intergenerational correlation and social interactions in education we propose a dynastic model where individuals are born into an educated or uneducated environment that they inherit from their parents we study the impact of social interactions on the correlation in parent child educational status independently of any parent child interaction when the level of social interactions is decided by a social planner we show that the correlation in education status between generations decreases very fast as social interactions increase in turn when the level of social interactions is decided by the individuals themselves we show that the intergenerational correlation still decreases although less rapidly than with exogenous social interactions

meeting electrification s social objectives in south africa and implications for developing countries electrification programmes and projects are usually planned and evaluated on the basis of their economic financial and socio economic performance it is not usually recognised that electrification is often carried out for social objectives of poverty alleviation and political effect examination of electrification in south africa reveals clearly that initial electrification was to meet economic objectives later socio economic objectives were adopted and recently the objectives were social social electrification particularly rural electrification is not viable according to usual assessment methods which are frequently distorted to provide the justification for a project to proceed the technology of network electrification changed to meet the constraints challenging usual perceptions about the relative costs of urban and rural electrification and the potential for photovoltaic electrification adopting a specification for social electrification allows suitable tariffs for electrification to be identified indicates how capital investment decisions might be modified for social electrification and identifies implications for electricity industry restructuring a better understanding of electrification s social objectives has implications for projects and programmes in other developing countries

revisiting the relationship between ethnic diversity and preferences for redistribution comment in this paper we return to the question raised in dahlberg et al 2012 concerning a causal relationship between ethnic diversity and preferences for redistribution a re analysis of their study indicates that results are based on an endogenous instrument and severe sample attrition bias correcting for either of these two problems reveals that there is no relationship between ethnic diversity and preferences for redistribution more generally we provide results that put into question the conventional description of the swedish refugee placement policy

immigrants labour market performance and social insurance using longitudinal data from the date of arrival we study long term labour market and social insurance outcomes for all major immigrant cohorts to norway since 1970 immigrants from high income countries performed as natives while labour migrants from low income source countries had declining employment rates and increasing disability programme participation over the lifecycle refugees and family migrants assimilated during the initial period upon arrival but labour market convergence halted after a decade and was accompanied by rising social insurance rates for the children of labour migrants of the 1970s we uncover evidence of intergenerational assimilation in education earnings and fertility

financing energy access and off grid electrification a review of status options and challenges abstract this paper provides a review of funding needs and financing mechanisms for energy access in general and off grid electrification in particular to find whether the funding for these activities has been adequate whether sufficient funding is likely to be available to meet the needs of universal energy access whether innovative approaches can be used in funding it finds that in all successful cases the state has played an important role in funding infrastructure investments but many developing countries have neglected the energy access issue for a long time international donor agencies have provided selective and limited support while the innovative mechanisms are also unfriendly towards small scale projects weak governance limited organisational capacity and unfavourable policy environment militate against large scale mobilisation of financial resources in the poorest countries of the world where energy access is a chronic problem the challenge of mobilising finance and ensuring its appropriate delivery and use remains a major issue and would require a co ordinated effort of all relevant stakeholders

the economics of renewable energy expansion in rural sub saharan africa accelerating development in sub saharan africa will require massive expansion of access to electricity currently reaching only about one third of households this paper explores how essential economic development might be reconciled with the need to keep carbon emissions in check the authors develop a geographically explicit framework and use spatial modeling and cost estimates from recent engineering studies to determine where stand alone renewable energy generation is a cost effective alternative to centralized grid supply the results suggest that decentralized renewable energy will likely play an important role in expanding rural energy access but it will be the lowest cost option for a minority of households in africa even when likely cost reductions over the next 20 years are considered decentralized renewables are competitive mostly in remote and rural areas while grid connected supply dominates denser areas where the majority of households reside these findings underscore the need to de carbonize the fuel mix for centralized power generation as it expands in africa

aggregation and linearity in the provision of intertemporal incentives we consider the problem of providing incentives over time for an agent with constant absolute risk aversion the optimal compensation scheme is found to be a linear function of a vector of n accounts which count the number of times that each of the n kinds of observable events occurs the number n is independent of the number of time periods so the accounts may entail substantial aggregation in a continuous time version of the problem the agent controls the drift rate of a vector of accounts that is subject to frequent small random fluctuations the solution is as if the problem were the static one in which the agent controls only the mean of a multivariate normal distribution and the principal is constrained to use a linear compensation rule if the principal can observe only coarser linear aggregates such as revenues costs or profits the optimal compensation scheme is then a linear function of those aggregates the combination of exponential utility normal distributions and linear compensation schemes makes computations and comparative statics easy to do as we illustrate we interpret our linearity results as deriving in part from the richness of the agent s strategy space which makes it possible for the agent to undermine and exploit complicated nonlinear functions of the accounting aggregates

the earnings of immigrant men in canada job tenure cohort and macroeconomic conditions using eleven cross sectional surveys spanning 1981 92 the authors compare the earnings of immigrant and native born men in canada apparently recent immigrant cohorts have suffered no decline in earnings job tenure is found to be a strongly significant determinant of earnings previous estimates of immigrant earnings differentials which have not incorporated job tenure information may partly reflect differences in tenure between immigrants and the native born when the sample is restricted to pairs of surveys that are close to the census survey years the estimates of cohort effects are sensitive to the choice of survey years one possible explanation for that sensitivity is suggested by the finding that macroeconomic conditions are a statistically significant determinant of the rate of assimilation of recent immigrants

unemployment and subsequent earnings estimating scarring among british men 1984 94 this paper estimates the impact of unemployment on earnings following re employment for a large and representative sample of british men 1984 94 unemployment incidence is found to have only a temporary effect an average earnings setback of 10 on initial re engagement largely eroding over two years the effect of unemployment duration by contrast is permanent a one year spell adding a further penalty of 10 percentage points these wage penalties are least for young men and the low paid those most at risk of unemployment and greatest for prime age and highly paid men

education and allocative efficiency household income growth during rural reforms in china this paper studies the contribution of schooling to rural income in china during factor market liberalization between 1986 and 1995 the relaxation of controls permitted farm households to reallocate productive inputs from agriculture to nonagricultural activities it is hypothesized that education facilitates this adjustment panel data from sichuan province suggest that schooling enhanced the ability of farmers to devote labor and capital to nonfarm production given the evidence that less than optimum levels of these inputs were allocated to nonagricultural uses during the transition the expansion of nonfarm activities contributed significantly to household income growth

improving incentives in unemployment insurance a review of recent research abstract this paper provides a review of the recent literature on how incentives in unemployment insurance can be improved we are particularly concerned with three instruments i e the duration of benefit payments or more generally the time sequencing of benefits monitoring in conjunction with sanctions and workfare our reading of the theoretical literature is that the case for imposing a penalty on less active job search is fairly solid a growing number of empirical studies including randomized experiments are in line with this conclusion