unanticipated aggregate disturbances and tests of the life cycle consumption model several recent studies have used data on food consumption from the panel study of income dynamics psid to test t he rational expectations life cycle hypothesis against the alternative of prevalent liquidity constraints these tests invoke the rational expectations restriction that income forecast errors are independent of lagged information this restriction however applies only in a time series context it is possible that unanticipated macroeconomic disturbances cause forecast errors to be correlated with lagged information in a cross section of families the authors present evidence of such a correlation in the psid data show that this correlation biases previous tests of the life cycle model toward rejection and derive a proper test of the life cycle model using pa nel data copyright 1993 by mit press

are consumers spending decisions in line with an euler equation evaluating a new survey of german consumers we test whether individual consumption spending decisions are formed according to an euler equation model we find that consumers are more likely to inc

multimarket contact imperfect monitoring and implicit collusion abstract this paper presents a theoretical foundation to the possibility that multimarket contact enhances firms ability to sustain implicit collusion when firms operate in a single market and cannot perfectly monitor their opponents choices it is impossible to achieve efficiency even if these firms have a long term strategic relationship we show that when firms encounter each other in a number of distinct markets and the extent of this market contact is large efficiency can be approximately sustained by a perfect equilibrium this efficiency with imperfect monitoring holds under almost the same condition on the discount factor as with perfect monitoring journal of economic literature classification numbers c70 c72 c73 d43 l11 l22 l41

government purchases and real interest rates this paper examines the dynamic impact of government purchases in a simple general equilibrium model with both durable and nondurable consumer goods as well as productive capital the model generates perhaps surprising results in particular increases in government purchases are shown to cause reductions in real interest rates the model thus provides a possible explanation for the observed behavior of real interest rates around wars copyright 1987 by university of chicago press

on the stability of the excess sensitivity of aggregate consumption growth in the usa summary this paper investigates whether there is time variation in the excess sensitivity of aggregate consumption growth to anticipated aggregate disposable income growth using quarterly us data over the period 1953 2014 our empirical framework contains the possibility of stickiness in aggregate consumption growth and takes into account measurement error and time aggregation our empirical specification is cast into a bayesian state space model and estimated using markov chain monte carlo mcmc methods we use a bayesian model selection approach to deal with the non regular test for the null hypothesis of no time variation in the excess sensitivity parameter anticipated disposable income growth is calculated by incorporating an instrumental variables estimation approach into our mcmc algorithm our results suggest that the excess sensitivity parameter in the usa is stable at around 0 23 over the entire sample period copyright 2016 john wiley sons ltd

government spending and capital accumulation with endogenous time preference this paper extends s djajic 1987 to allow for an endogenous rate of time preference and reexamines djajic s experiment how the optimal rates of private consumption and capital accumulation will respond to an unanticipated temporary expansion in government spending the key factors determining the adjustment patterns are the difference between the marginal utility of private consumption and that of public spending the timing of policy reversion and the relationship between private and public consumption in household utility if private and public consumption are edgeworth independent whether investment increases with the length of fiscal expansion depends on whether the marginal utility of private consumption exceeds that of public consumption

the hyperbolic consumption model calibration simulation and empirical evaluation ur preferences for the long run tend to conflict with our short run behavior when planning for the long run we intend to meet our deadlines exercise regularly and eat healthfully but in the short run we have little interest in revising manuscripts jogging on the stairmaster and skipping the chocolate souffleala mode delay of gratification is a nice long term goal but instant gratification is disconcertingly tempting this gap between long run intentions and short run actions is apparent across a wide range of behaviors including saving choices a 1997 survey found that 76 percent of respondents believe they should be saving more for retirement looking only at respondents who believed they were at an age where you should be seriously saving already the survey found that 55 percent reported being behind in their savings and only 6 percent reported being ahead farkas and johnson 1997 the report on the survey concluded t he gaps between people s atti tudes intentions and behavior are troubling and threaten increased insecurity and dissatisfaction for people when they retire americans are simply not doing what logic and their own reasoning suggests they should be doing a 1993 luntz webber merrill lynch survey found similar answers when baby boomers were asked what percentage of your annual household income do you think you should save for retirement and what percentage of your annual

testing the response of consumption to income changes with noisy panel data this paper tests the rational expectations lifecycle model of consumption against i a keynesian model and ii the rational expectations lifecycle model with imperfect capital markets the tests are based upon the relative responsiveness of consumption to income changes that can be predicted from past information and income changes that cannot he predicted the tests allow for measurement error in income the results reject the keynesian model and generally support the lifecycle model but the results are not sufficiently precise to rule out the possibility that some households are liquidity constrained measurement error has a strong influence on the relationship between consumption and income

the effect of market segmentation with demand leakage between market segments on a firm s price and inventory decisions abstract in this paper we address the simultaneous determination of price and inventory replenishment in a newsvendor setting when the firm faces demand from two or more market segments in which the firm can set different prices we allow for demand leakage from higher priced segments to lower priced segments and assume that unsatisfied demand can be backlogged we examine the case where the demands occur concurrently without priority and are met from a single inventory we consider customer s buy down behavior explicitly by modeling demand leakage as a function of segment price differentiation and characterize the structure of optimal inventory and pricing policies

pricing and the news vendor problem a review with extensions in the newsvendor problem a decision maker facing random demand for a perishable product decides how much of it to stock for a single selling period this simple problem with its intuitively appealing solution is a crucial building block of stochastic inventory theory which comprises a vast literature focusing on operational efficiency typically in this literature market parameters such as demand and selling price are exogenous however incorporating these factors into the mode l can provide an excellent vehicle for examining how operational problems interact with marketing issues to influence decision making at the firm level in this paper we examine an extension of the newsvendor problem in which stocking quantity and selling price are set simultaneously we provide a comprehensive review that synthesizes existing results for the single period problem and develop additional results to enrich the existing knowledge base we also review and develop insight into a dynamic inventory extension of this problem and motivate the applicability of such models

habit formation in consumer preferences evidence from panel data this paper tests for the presence of habit formation using household data a simple model of habit formation implies a condition relating the strength of habits to the evolution of consumption over time when the condition is estimated with food consumption data from the panel study on income dynamics the results yield no evidence of habit formation at the annual frequency this finding is robust to a number of changes in the specification it also holds for several proxies for nondurables and services consumption created by combining psid variables with weights estimated from consumer expenditure survey data

optimal fences and joint price and inventory decisions in distinct markets with demand leakage abstract this paper evaluates the simultaneous determination of price and inventory replenishment when a firm faces demand from distinct market segments a firm utilizes fences such as advance or nonrefundable payment to maintain separation of its market segments however fences are imperfect and allow a degree of demand leakage from the higher priced to the lower priced market segment we investigate the optimal structure of joint price and inventory decisions with fencing and demonstrate that more segments is not necessarily better especially when demand uncertainty is high in the presence of lost sales we also show the impact of imperfect fences on the firm s profitability and evaluate how fencing costs affect the optimal fencing decision

using subjective income expectations to test for excess sensitivity of consumption to predicted income growth abstract we test for precautionary saving and excess sensitivity of consumption to predicted income growth using a 1989 1993 panel survey of italian households that has measures of subjective income and inflation expectations these expectations provide a powerful instrument for predicting income growth the empirical specification controls for predictable changes in labor supply and allows a fairly general specification for the stochastic structure of the forecast error we find that consumption growth is positively correlated with the expected variance of income and uncorrelated with predicted income growth overall the results support the precautionary saving model

joint optimal determination of process mean production quantity pricing and market segmentation with demand leakage abstract the selection of an optimal process mean is an important problem in production planning and quality control research most of the previous studies in the field have analyzed the problem for a fixed exogenous price however in many realistic situations besides product quality product pricing is a paramount factor that determines the purchase behavior in the market in the experts opinion an integrated framework that incorporates pricing as a decision tool could significantly improve a firm s profitability most of the manufacturing firms yield products with distinguishable characteristics and therefore it is desirable to sell these products on the market at differentiated prices whereas the market segmentation achieved using differentiated prices is often imperfect a firm may experience demand leakages thus an optimal price decision must incorporate demand leakage effects for the firm to benefit from its differentiated pricing strategy in this paper these issues are addressed by proposing an optimal framework for joint determination of process mean pricing production quantity and market segmentation using differentiated pricing this research discusses a production process that manufactures multi class grade products based on their quality attribute the products are sold in primary and secondary market at differentiated prices while experiencing demand leakages the nonconforming items are reworked at an additional cost mathematical models are developed to address the problem under both price dependent deterministic and stochastic demand situations we propose a harmony search meta heuristic for solving the models a numerical experimentation is presented to study the significance of the proposed integrated decision framework

are supply shocks contractionary at the zlb evidence from utilization adjusted tfp data abstract the basic new keynesian model predicts that positive supply shocks are less expansionary at the zero lower bound zlb compared to periods of active monetary policy we test this prediction empirically using fernald s 2014 utilization adjusted total factor productivity series which we take as a measure of exogenous productivity in contrast to the predictions of the model positive productivity shocks are estimated to be more expansionary at the zlb compared to normal times we find that there is no significant difference in the response of expected inflation to a productivity shock at the zlb compared to normal times

farm consumption and liquidity constraints this study examines whether farm family consumption is liquidity constrained results using 1976 to 1990 data for groups of illinois and kansas farms indicate that consumption behavior is not liquidity constrained analysis of 207 kansas farms in 1989 and 1990 provides similar results these results are in contrast to findings for nonfarm families and support the validity of using the life cycle permanent income hypothesis for farm level modeling and analysis

consumption and saving with habit formation and durability abstract this paper develops a model of precautionary saving with habit formation and durability durability offsets the effects of habit formation on both consumption growth and the precautionary premium empirical tests of habit formation and durability on consumption growth might exploit their parallel effects on the precautionary premium

capital market imperfections and the consumption function a model is presented in which there is asymmetric information between borrowers and lenders two questions are asked i would liquidity constraints in such a model take the form of credit rationing or of a wedge between borrowing and lending rates and ii how do these constraints affect the aggregate consumption function some empirical

dollar vs percentage markup pricing schemes under a dominant retailer abstract we investigate two very common pricing schemes for a stackelberg dominant retailer percentage markup and dollar markup we show that when a dominant retailer switches from dollar to percentage markup the channel s overall pie and the retailer s pie piece are both enlarged in contrast the manufacturer will be forced to levy a lower wholesale price thus receiving a smaller pie piece despite the larger pie the preceding statements hold regardless of whether the demand is deterministic or stochastic however the effects of switching to percentage markup on the retail price and sales volume will depend not only on whether the demand is stochastic but also on the assumed demand curve shape and on whether demand stochasticity is additive or multiplicative besides presenting a comprehensive set of answers on the comparative performance of dollar and percentagemarkups our results also highlight the often overlooked importance of choosing between i dollar and percentage markup and ii the formats of the assumed stochasticity and demand curves

capital gains in japan their magnitude and impact on consumption this paper estimates the magnitude of net capital gains on household wealth in japan and then conducts an econometric analysis of their impact on consumption using national accounts data for the 1955 93 period it finds that net capital gains on household wealth have been sizeable albeit volatile in japan during this period and that their impact on consumption has been substantial especially during the late 1980s and early 1990s the econometric analysis is one of the first cointegration analyses of japanese consumption behavior and finds strong support for the life cycle permanent income hypothesis copyright 1996 by royal economic society

test of c capm for japan 1980 1988 abstract this paper empirically analyzes the c capm for the japanese assets market the results calculated in this paper is totally different from the results in the existing literature the model is accepted at the conventional significance level and the estimated parameter values are also reasonable these results show that c capm is a useful model in order to analyze the assets market in japan

income risk and farm consumption behavior abstract using panel data from illinois grain farmers a direct test of the relationship between income risk and farm consumption behavior is conducted the estimation results indicate that income risk significantly affects farm consumption and the results are robust using alternative risk measures this finding casts doubt on the relevance of the conventional life cycle permanent income hypothesis which implies that risk has no effect on consumption

firm reputation and horizontal integration author s cai hongbin abstract we study effects of horizontal integration on firm reputation in an environment where customers observe only imperfect signals about firms effort quality choices firms cannot maintain reputations of high quality and earn quality premium forever even when firms are choosing high quality effort there is always a possibility that a bad signal is observed in this case firms must give up their quality premium at least temporarily as punishment a firm s integration decision is based on the extent to which integration attenuates this necessary cost of maintaining a good reputation horizontal integration leads to a larger market base for the merged firm and may allow better monitoring of the firm s choices hence improving the punishment scheme for deviations on the other hand it gives the merged firm more room for sophisticated derivations we characterize the optimal level of integration and provide sufficient conditions under which nonintegration dominates integration we show that the optimal size of the firm is smaller when 1 trades are more frequent and information is disseminated more rapidly or 2 the deviation gain is smaller than the honesty benefit or 3 customer information about firm choices is more precise

repeated games with frequent signals we study repeated games with frequent actions and frequent imperfect public signals where the signals are the aggregate of many discrete events such as sales or tasks the high frequency limit of the equilibrium set depends on both the probability law governing the discrete events and on how many events are aggregated into a single signal when the underlying events have a binomial distribution the limit equilibria correspond to the equilibria of the associated continuous time game with diffusion signals but other event processes that aggregate to a diffusion limit can have a different set of limit equilibria thus the continuous time game need not be a good approximation of the high frequency limit whenever the underlying events have three or more possible values

is the japanese extended family altruistically linked a test based on engel curves altruism has the well known neutrality implication that the family s demand for commodities is invariant to the division of resources within the family i test this by estimating engel curves on a cross section of japanese extended families forming two generation households i find that the pattern of food expenditure is significantly affected by the division of resources the food components whose budget share increases with the older generation s share of household income are precisely those favored by the old such as cereal seafood and vegetables

would a risk averse newsvendor order less at a higher selling price we model a risk averse newsvendor s decision making behavior with some commonly used classes of utility functions within the expected utility theory eut framework under fairly general conditions of eut we show that a risk averse newsvendor will order less than an arbitrarily small quantity as selling price gets larger if price is higher than a threshold value i e the optimal order quantity decreases as the selling price increases

impossibility of collusion under imperfect monitoring with flexible production we show that it is impossible to achieve collusion in a duopoly when 1 goods are homogenous and firms compete in quantities 2 new imperfect information arrives continuously without sudden events and 3 firms are able to respond to this new information quickly the result holds even if we allow for asymmetric equilibria or monetary transfers the intuition is that the flexibility to respond to new information quickly unravels any collusive scheme and that signals about the aggregate behavior only cannot be used effectively to provide individual incentives via transfers our result applies both to a simple stationary model and a more complicated one with prices following a mean reverting markov process

a multi item newsvendor problem with preseason production and capacitated reactive production abstract given items with short life cycles or seasonal demands one can potentially improve profits by producing during the selling season especially when its production capacity is substantial we develop a two stage multi item model incorporating reactive production that employs a firm s internal capacity production occurs in an uncapacitated preseason stage and a capacitated reactive stage demands occur in the reactive stage reactive capacities are pre allocated to each item in the preseason stage and cannot be changed during the reactive stage reactive production occurs during the selling season with full knowledge of demands the objective is expected profit maximization unsatisfied demand is lost the revenue salvage value and production and lost sales costs are proportional assuming no fixed costs we present a simple algorithm for computing optimal policies for a model with fixed costs for allocating preseason stage production and reactive stage capacity to product families we characterize optimal policies and develop optimal and heuristic algorithms

intertemporal substitution imports and the permanent income model abstract we examine the importance of intertemporal substitution in u s import consumption using a model of permanent income that allows for random preference shocks and additive separability the latter feature allows us to take two estimation approaches in the first approach we show that there is a cointegrating restriction imposed by the first order conditions of the model which allows us to estimate the intertemporal elasticity of imported and domestic goods consumption in the second approach we estimate the euler equations using generalized method of moments this approach however requires us to place some restrictive assumptions on the model that are not required for the first estimation approach thus the two different approaches allow an assessment of the severity of these restrictive assumptions which are often imposed in the literature

inflation expectations and firm decisions new causal evidence author s coibion o gorodnichenko y ropele t abstract 2019 the author s we use a unique design feature of a survey of italian firms to study the causal effect of inflation expectations on firms economic decisions in the survey a randomly chosen subset of firms is repeatedly treated with information about recent inflation whereas other firms are not this information treatment generates exogenous variation in inflation expectations we find that higher inflation expectations on the part of firms leads them to raise their prices increase demand for credit and reduce their employment and capital however when policy rates are constrained by the effective lower bound demand effects are stronger leading firms to raise their prices more and no longer reduce their employment

inflation expectations and consumer spending at the zero bound micro evidence i introduction many theoretical studies suggest that policy makers can generate greater current spending by making people believe in higher future inflation when nominal interest rates are stuck at the zero lower bound zlb krugman 1998 using a simple two period model and with japan s low interest rate environment in the 1990s in mind was the first to show that a central bank s commitment to high inflation is effective eggertsson and woodford 2003 show that this proposition is relevant even in a standard dynamic stochastic general equilibrium dsge model more recently with many central banks such as the federal reserve starting to face the zlb and to cope with weak economic demand many policy proposals have been made based on the perception that an increase in expected inflation is a good thing to stimulate economic activity 1 the logic for these suggestions is based on the fisher equation and the intertemporal substitution effect if nominal interest rates are fixed higher inflation expectations lead to lower real interest rates creating an incentive to spend now rather than in the future however according to basic economic theory lower real interest rates may suppress current spending if adverse forces such as the income effect dominate the intertemporal substitution effect thus the consequences of low real interest rates are an empirical matter therefore the question arises why standard dsge models somewhat confidently suggest that the substitution effect dominates other effects a large number of empirical studies which typically use vector autoregression var models show that if central banks unexpectedly reduce nominal short term interest rates or if a negative monetary shock occurs spending is stimulated standard dsge models are constructed to match such findings for example christiano eichenbaum and evans 2005 show that their dsge model can replicate the var estimates of impulse responses following a monetary policy shock in such models given that prices and thus expected inflation are sticky a lower nominal interest rate leads to a lower real interest rate which generates greater current spending based on the implicit assumption that the intertemporal substitution effect dominates other adverse effects several studies including eggertsson and woodford 2003 incorporate the zlb into such dsge models and suggest that even the expectation of a modest inflationary boom in the future has a dramatic effect on current spending by lowering real interest rates however as mentioned above the justification of standard dsge models largely depends on empirical results about the effects of changes in nominal interest rates rather than changes in expected inflation and these results are obtained using the data of major industrialized countries that did not face the zlb constraint until very recently in fact there are only few studies that directly examine the effects of inflation expectations on consumer spending using data in a zlb environment bachmann berg and sims 2014 examine this issue using the micro data from the michigan survey of consumers conducted in the united states the michigan survey collects repeated cross sectional data on quantitative measures of expected inflation as well as qualitative measures of readiness to spend namely responses to questions about whether now is a good or bad time to buy durable goods the data are available at a monthly frequency and cover the period from january 1984 to december 2012 bachmann berg and sims 2014 regard the period from december 2008 onward as the zlb period the estimation result of their baseline ordered probit model is the opposite of the prediction of standard theoretical models the impact of expected inflation on the readiness to spend on durables is negative and statistically significant although small in absolute value at the zlb they then consider several potential explanations underlying these results including nominal money illusion that is households understand how nominal interest rates impact the intertemporal relative prices between spending now and spending in the future but they may not understand how inflation expectations do

habits and heterogeneity in demands a panel data analysis we examine demand behaviour for intertemporal dependencies using spanishpanel data we present evidence that there is both state dependence and correlatedheterogeneity in demand behaviour our specific findings are that food outside thehome alcohol and tobacco are habit forming whereas clothing and small durablesexhibit durability we conclude that demand analyses using cross section data thatignore these effects may be seriously biased on the other hand the degree ofintertemporal dependence is not sufficiently strong to make composite consumption significantly habit forming as has been suggested in some recent analyses

does the choice of consumption measure matter an application to the permanent income hypothesis abstract food consumption in the panel study of income dynamics is used as a proxy for total consumption in many applications in economics including tests of the permanent income hypothesis tests of separability between consumption and leisure and tests of intergenerational altruism food however explains only a small fraction of the variation in total consumption i propose a measure of composite consumption based on predicted wealth and compare it both to food consumption and to skinner s 1987 measure of predicted consumption in a test of the permanent income hypothesis using a log linear intertemporal consumption function i find that food does not reject the permanent income hypothesis but both skinner s predicted consumption and the composite measure proposed here to reject the hypothesis

the permanent income hypothesis consumption euler relations are estimated with data from the 1986 1991 us consumer expenditure survey without creating a synthetic panel the stochastic implications of the permanent income hypothesis generally are not rejected and there is little evidence of liquidity constrained or rule of thumb behavior the results are robust with respect to consumption category changes in sample and choice of instruments 1999 elsevier science b v all rights reserved

perfect public equilibrium when players are patient we provide a characterization of the limit set of perfect public equilibrium payoffs of repeated games with imperfect public monitoring as the discount factor goes to one our result covers general stage games including those that fail a full dimensionality condition that had been imposed in past work it also provides a characterization of the limit set when the strategies are restricted in a way that endogenously makes the full dimensionality condition fail as in the strongly symmetric equilibrium studied by abreu abreu d 1986 extremal equilibria of oligopolistic supergames j econ theory 39 191 228 and abreu et al abreu d pearce d stacchetti e 1986 optimal cartel equilibria with imperfect monitoring j econ theory 39 251 269 finally we use our characterization to give a sufficient condition for the exact achievability of first best outcomes equilibria of this type for which all continuation payoffs lie on the pareto frontier have a strong renegotiation proofness property regardless of the history players can never unanimously prefer another equilibrium

a supply chain model with direct and retail channels abstract we study a dual channel supply chain in which a manufacturer sells to a retailer as well as to consumers directly consumers choose the purchase channel based on price and service qualities the manufacturer decides the price of the direct channel and the retailer decides both price and order quantity we develop conditions under which the manufacturer and the retailer share the market in equilibrium we show that the difference in marginal costs of the two channels plays an important role in determining the existence of dual channels in equilibrium we also show that demand variability has a major influence on the equilibrium prices and on the manufacturer s motivation for opening a direct channel in the case that the manufacturer and the retailer coordinate and follow a centralized decision maker we show that adding a direct channel will increase the overall profit our numerical results show that an increase in retailer s service quality may increase the manufacturer s profit in dual channel and a larger range of consumer service sensitivity may benefit both parties in the dual channel our results suggest that the manufacturer is likely to be better off in the dual channel than in the single channel when the retailer s marginal cost is high and the wholesale price consumer valuation and the demand variability are low

how did japanese investments influence international art prices we test the luxury consumption hypothesis of ait sahalia parker and yogo 2004 using a unique international art price import export flow and stock market data set we find that the demand for art by japanese collectors is positively correlated with art prices and japanese stock prices this correlation is magnified during the bubble period of the japanese economy the mid 1980s to the early 1990s and gains even further strength for works of art typically favored by japanese collectors our results suggest that japanese investors or japanese asset markets indeed affect international art prices especially during the bubble period and its aftermath

the characteristics of the business cycle in japan the present study examines the characteristics of the business cycle in the japanese economy by using the hodrick prescot filter concluding that a change in consumption is relatively large and that labour input is ficed in japan fluctuating consumption supports a permanent income hypothesis in japan the fixed labour input is thought to reflect the characteritics of the japanese economy such as a fixed employment custom like the lifetime employment system this paper presents a simple stuctured model of the real business cycle rbc and examines its validity by simulation it may be concluded that even a simple model with a time separable utitlity function and a fixed capital labour ratio can reproduce the movement of the japanese economy

intertemporal nonseparability or borrowing restrictions a disaggregate analysis using a u s consumption panel we propose a method to test for liquidity constraints which relies on using the within period marginal rate of substitution condition as a benchmark to evaluate the intertemporal euler equation if spot markets for nondurable goods exist but financial markets either do not exist or are imperfect we show how the comparison of first order conditions involving the relevant spot and intertemporal prices can be used to detect the imperfection we apply our methodology to a large sample of u s households drawn from twelve years of the consumer expenditure survey allowing for a general nonseparable preference structure our estimates of first order conditions do not indicate the presence of liquidity constraints with the possible exception of young households

partial insurance and investments in children this article studies the impact of permanent and transitory shocks to income on parental investments in children we use panel data on family income and an index of investments in children from the children of the national longitudinal survey of youth we find that there is partial insurance of parental investments against permanent income shocks but the magnitude of the estimated responses is small we cannot reject the hypothesis of full insurance against temporary shocks another interpretation of our findings is that insurance possibilities are limited but the fact that skill is a non separable function of parental investments over time results in small reactions of these investments to income shocks especially at later ages

testing the life cycle hypothesis with a norwegian household panel this article reports the results of progressive refinements in the models used to test the permanent income hypothesis these tests are undertaken with a household panel constructed from diaries by the norwegian central bureau of statistics the data combine detailed expenditure and price information with income and wealth data from the government s tax files for 1975 1977 using a model that takes account of relative price change and demographic variables recognizes the effects of durables and incorporates explicit recognition of the effects of differences in the timing of observations or income innovations and spending the results indicate that the data are consistent with the permanent income life cycle hypothesis

expenditure allocation across nondurables services durables and savings an empirical study of separability in the long run the separability of categories of consumption expenditures and savings are empirically examined in the context of an error correction model of aggregate quarterly expenditure allocations in canada some evidence is found for separability of consumption allocations from savings in both the long run structure and short run dynamics of the model lending some support to the use of the assumption in modelling consumption behaviour

optimal collusion under imperfect monitoring in multimarket contact abstract we investigate optimal collusion in repeated multimarket contact under imperfect public monitoring where two firms operate in m markets and in each market each firm s decision and public signals are binary we show that in an optimal pure strategy strongly symmetric perfect public equilibrium the size of efficiency loss is equal to that in the market with the most tempting deviation under single market contact furthermore we show a sufficient condition under which the symmetric equilibrium is optimal for joint payoff maximization among any perfect public equilibrium

incomplete information and the time series behaviour of consumption pischke 1995 uses both microeconomic and macroeconomic us data to test the idea that within an otherwise standard pih framework ignorance by agents of aggregate labour income can account for the observed degree of excess smoothness and sensitivity in consumption his tests involve only the second moments of aggregate consumption and labour income in this paper our main aim is to identify and test the restrictions his model implies for aggregate consumption dynamics using us quarterly data over the period 1959 1996 but our framework allows us also to test an earlier related model of goodfriend 1992 we find that both models can be formally rejected ignorance of aggregate labour income cannot by itself account for aggregate consumption dynamics some other relaxation of the assumptions of the standard pih is required we give an example of one possible such relaxation and present evidence indicating that pischke s version of imperfect information may within that framework have a significant role to play copyright 2000 john wiley sons ltd

the newsvendor problem with an in season price adjustment consider a retailer stocking a seasonal item facing a stochastic demand where information about the demand becomes more accurate as the selling season progresses the retailer places orders before the start of the season and in season reorders are not possible this article extends the classical newsvendor model by allowing the retailer to make an in season price adjustment after conducting a review and using the realized demand to obtain an accurate estimate of the remaining demand our results include answers to the following questions what price should the retailer choose how much should the retailer have ordered at the start of the season given the option of adjusting prices in season this model was motivated by a problem in car rental revenue management and has applications in perishable assets revenue management parm where price adjustments are needed towards the end of the selling season

revenue management under a general discrete choice model of consumer behavior customer choice behavior such as buy up and buy down is an important phenomenon in a wide range of revenue management contexts yet most revenue management methodologies ignore this phenomenon or at best approximate it in a heuristic way in this paper we provide an exact and quite general analysis of this problem specifically we analyze a single leg reserve management problem in which the buyers choice behavior is modeled explicitly the choice model is very general simply specifying the probability of purchase for each fare product as a function of the set of fare products offered the control problem is to decide which subset of fare products to offer at each point in time we show that the optimal policy for this problem has a quite simple form namely it consists of identifying an ordered family of efficient subsets s 1 s m and at each point in time opening one of these sets s k where the optimal index k is increasing in the remaining capacity x and decreasing in the remaining time that is the more capacity or less time available the further the optimal set is along this sequence we also show that the optimal policy is a nested allocation policy if and only if the sequence of efficient sets is nested that is s 1 s 2 s m moreover we give a characterization of when nesting by fare order is optimal we also develop an estimation procedure for this setting based on the expectation maximization em method that jointly estimates arrival rates and choice model parameters when no purchase outcomes are unobservable numerical results are given to illustrate both the model and estimation procedure

multimarket contact and collusive behavior traditional analyses of industrial behavior typically link the exercise of market power in an industry to internalfeatures such as demand conditions concentration and barriers to entry nevertheless some economists have remained concerned that external factors such as contact across markets may also play a significant role in determining the level of competitiveness in any particular industry in this article we examine the effect of multimarket contact on the degree of cooperation that firms can sustain in settings of repeated competition we isolate conditions under which multimarket contact facilitates collusion and show that these collusive gains are achieved through modes of behavior that have been identified in previous empirical studies of multimarketfirms

inventory theoretic money demand and relative price dynamics we construct a two goods inventory theoretic money demand model and find that the model implies in a monetary contraction the decline in the prices of low cash intensity goods durables or luxuries outpaces that of high cash intensity goods nondurables or necessities using u s data we show that our model s predictions are consistent with the data

intertemporal preferences and labor supply in this paper the authors examine whether nonseparable preference structures ar e important in characterizing life cycle labor supply using longitud inal data on prime age males from the panel study of income dynamics they estimate a model of life cycle leisure and consumption under un certainty in which intertemporal preferences are allowed to be nonsep arable in leisure the model tests several alternative specifications considered in the literature they investigate the robustness of the ir findings to certain forms of population heterogeneity and types of model misspecification across alternative specifications the autho rs find that the standard assumption of intertemporally separable pre ferences for leisure is not consistent with the data copyright 1988 by the econometric society

an integrated revenue management framework for a firm s greening pricing and inventory decisions abstract there is a growing interest on developing efficient ways of incorporating environmental considerations into business practices in order to meet both consumers demand for green products services and the firms sustainable profitability the main contribution of this article is in developing an integrated revenue management framework to address a firm s greening investment effort pricing and inventory decisions it is assumed that the firm inaugurates a green product along with its existing product even though the firm offers both the green and regular product at differentiated prices the market segmentation as a result of this price differentiation is regarded as imperfect this imperfect market segmentation causes a demand leakage mainly due to the heterogeneity among the customers willingness to pay these effects are included in our proposed model and simplified analytical solutions are developed to solve the same additional scenarios where a firm experiences a price dependent stochastic demand with an unknown distribution is also modeled this scenario is addressed using a distribution free approach based on scarf s rule the performance of the proposed methods and the significance of the modeling framework are finally corroborated through several simulations this analysis provides a sustainable environment production and retailing framework while still augmenting profitability using fundamental tools from revenue management

on the structural stability of preference parameters obtained from japanese financial market data abstract this paper analyzes the structural stability of preference parameters obtained from japanese financial market data the test results show that although the japanese financial market experienced a structural change at the end of the 1970s preference parameters remained invariant across time and policy regimes

selling to the newsvendor with a forecast update analysis of a dual purchase contract we consider a supply chain in which a manufacturer sells to a procure to stock retailer facing a newsvendor problem with a forecast update under a wholesale price contract the retailer waits as long as she can and optimally places her order after observing the forecast update we show that the retailer s wait and decide strategy induced by the wholesale price contract hinders the manufacturer s ability to 1 set the wholesale price and maximize his profit 2 hedge against excess inventory risk and 3 reduce his profit uncertainty to mitigate the adverse effect of wholesale price contract we propose the dual purchase contract through which the manufacturer provides a discount for orders placed before the forecast update we characterize how and when a dual purchase contract creates strict pareto improvement over a wholesale price contract to do so we establish the retailer s optimal ordering policy and the manufacturer s optimal pricing and production policies we show how the dual purchase contract reduces profit variability and how it can be used as a risk hedging tool for a risk averse manufacturer through a numerical study we provide additional managerial insights and show for example that market uncertainty is a key factor that defines when the dual purchase contract provides strict pareto improvement over the wholesale price contract

effects of government spending on the current account with endogenous time preference this paper extends a previous model to set up a small open economy with perfect capital mobility and examines the effects of an unanticipated permanent rise in public spending on the optimal rates of private consumption and the current account the novelty of the paper is consideration of the relationship between private and public consumption in the household s utility function as well as endogenous rates of time preference it is found that the key factor determining the adjustment patterns of private consumption and the current account is the marginal utility of private consumption and of public spending which results from endogenous recursive preferences

household optimism and overborrowing we use finnish household level data from 1994 to 2013 to measure how often and what kind of forecast errors households make and how the errors are linked to the households borrowing behavior and overindebtedness we find that those households that make the largest optimistic forecast errors have greater debt to income ratios they also are more likely to report that they suffer from excessive debt loads and have problems in coping with their bills there are no such systematic effects for the households that make pessimistic forecast errors

wealth shocks unemployment shocks and consumption in the wake of the great recession we use data from the 2009 internet survey of the health and retirement study to examine the consumption impact of wealth shocks and unemployment during the great recession in the us we find that many households experienced large capital losses in housing and in their financial portfolios and that a non trivial fraction of respondents have lost their job as a consequence of these shocks many households reduced substantially their expenditures we estimate that the marginal propensities to consume with respect to housing and financial wealth are 1 and 3 3 percentage points respectively in addition those who became unemployed reduced spending by 10 percent we also distinguish the effect of perceived transitory and permanent wealth shocks splitting the sample between households who think that the stock market is likely to recover in a year s time and those who don t in line with the predictions of standard models of intertemporal choice we find that the latter group adjusted much more than the former its spending in response to financial wealth shocks

ricardian equivalence under imperfect information abstract in the us aggregate private consumption changes are excessively sensitive not only to current and lagged changes in income but also to current and lagged changes in government expenditures i give a new theoretical interpretation to this observation i show that this excess sensitivity arises when consumers take into account the link between taxes and government expenditures i e when they are ricardian but lack exact information on the aggregate economy while the model provides a simultaneous explanation for both types of excess sensitivity the strong restrictions that it imposes on the data are not supported by the results of econometric estimation

evaluating familial support for the elderly the intrahousehold allocation of medical expenditures in rural pakistan introduction in this article i examine the determinants of medical expenditures on the elderly in rural pakistani households analyzing in particular the dependence of such expenditures on the economic contribution of the elderly to household income the results for older males are contrasted with those for younger males improved life expectancies in the south asian economies as in other developing economies have generated new policy interest in the economic status of the elderly there is however little empirical evidence on this topic while the scant research on the elderly in south asia undoubtedly reflects the fact that they represent one of the smallest demographic groups in these economies it also reflects the widespread belief that they are well provided for by the intergenerational households where the vast majority of them reside with their adult children however this assumption has been questioned by a number of scholars who find that medical expenditures on the elderly are closely correlated with the elderly s individual incomes and wealth household data from pakistan support such claims data on individual medical expenditures and days of illness are available from two household surveys a panel data set collected by the international food policy research institute ifpri and from the pakistan living standards measurement survey lsms both data sets reveal a strong correlation between the number of days of illness reported by adult males and age leading one to expect a similarly strong correlation between medical expenditures and age instead the ifpri data yield a correlation that is less than one would expect given the relationship between illness and age the lsms data set which provides information on many more

intertemporal dependence impatience and dynamics abstract this paper develops simple geometric methods for analyzing consumer behavior under recursive but intertemporally dependent tastes since the preferences studied need not be time additive they allow the marginal utility of consumption on a given date to vary with consumption on other dates intertemporal dependence is induced by the presence of a variable individual rate of time preference the optimal consumption responses to transitory and anticipated changes in incomes and interest rates are easily derived and are similar in many respects to the responses implied by the standard constant time preference model intuitive explanations of the first order conditions describing optimal paths are provided

optimal cartel equilibria with imperfect monitoring abstract there exist optimal symmetric equilibria in the green porter model 4 8 having an elementary intertemporal structure such an equilibrium is described entirely by two subsets of price space and two quantities the only production levels used by firms in any contingency the central technique employed in the analysis is the reduction of the repeated game to a family of static games

optimal contracting with subjective evaluation this paper extends the standard principal agent model to allow for subjective evaluation the optimal contract results in more compressed pay relative to the case with verifiable performance measures moreover discrimination against an individual implies lower pay and performance suggesting that the extent of discrimination as measured after controlling for performance may underestimate the level of true discrimination finally the optimal contract entails the use of bonus pay rather than the threat of dismissal hence neither efficiency wages nor the right to dismiss an employee are necessary ingredients for an optimal incentive contract

disentangling insurance and information in intertemporal consumption choices the textbook version of the life cycle perma nent income hypothesis with no liquidity con straints predicts that consumption should react very mildly to unanticipated transitory income changes and very strongly to permanent ones this prediction has important policy implica tions in understanding the response of consum ers to tax rebates or increases that are made for stabilization purposes in recent years there has been a resurgence of interest in estimating these important parameters either using quasi experimental data such as randomization of the timing when tax rebate checks are received by households see david johnson jonathan parker and nicholas souleles 2006 or imposing struc tural restrictions on the stochastic income pro cess faced by consumers orazio attanasio and nicola pavoni 2008 richard blundell luigi pistaferri and ian preston 2008 jonathan heathcote kjetil storesletten and giovanni l violante 2007 giorgio primiceri and thijs van rens forthcoming the main objection of quasi experimental stud ies is that the results may be context specific the main problem with the second strand of the litera ture is that estimates of the response of consump tion to income shocks may confound two issues insurance and information on the one hand the estimate reflects the ability or lack thereof of the household to smooth consumption through a variety of channels such as self insurance gov ernment provided insurance credit markets or other informal mechanisms on the other hand the identification strategy requires the ability to statistically separate what is a shock from what is an anticipated event when seen from the point of

incentives insurance and the variability of consumption and leisure abstract this paper considers to what extent dynamic incentive models such as green 1987 phelan and townsend 1991 and atkeson and lucas 1992 can quantitatively explain why some individuals consume or work more than others and why a typical individual s consumption or leisure varies over time a simple repeated agency model is shown to be able to better match several population moments concerning life cycle labor supply and consumption variation than the same model without incentive constraints on the other hand i show for the standard stylized models of repeated agency incentive induced variability is an insufficient explanation of the variability in the data

inflation expectations consumption and the lower bound micro evidence from a large multi country survey abstract using a large multi country survey and new pseudo panel dataset we investigate the spending response of consumers to their beliefs about future inflation the analysis exploits the deviation of expected inflation from the currently perceived inflation rate a choice motivated by local approximation of the traditional euler equation this helps control for unobserved heterogeneity and highlights a positive and economically relevant spending response that is generalised in the population and across countries also a stronger positive response is observed when the lower bound is binding thus lending credence to the stabilisation properties of higher inflation expectations during such episodes

household choices in equilibrium this paper is an empirical investigation of equilibrium restrictions on household consumption and male labor supply it exploits a simple factor structure rationalized by two assumptions that household allocations are pareto optimal and that the labor market is competitive the paper estimates household preferences and tests how well this parsimonious factor structure represents panel data on married couples and time series data on asset returns most of the estimates are roughly comparable to those found in previous work no evidence against the simple factor representation is found and the intertemporal capital asset pricing model is not rejected copyright 1990 by the econometric society

on interdependent supergames multimarket contact concavity and collusion abstract following bernheim and whinston 1990 this paper addresses the effects of multimarket contact on firms ability to collude real world imperfections tend to make firms objective function strictly concave and market supergames interdependent firms payoffs in each market depend on how they are doing in others then multimarket contact always facilitates collusion it may even make collusion sustainable in all markets when otherwise it would not be sustainable in any the effects of conglomeration are discussed multigame contact is shown to facilitate cooperation in supergames other than oligopolies as long as agents objective function is submodular in material payoffs journal of economic literature classification numbers c72 d43 l13 l21

an example of a repeated partnership game with discounting and with uniformly inefficient equilibria in this note we present an example of a repeated partnership game with imperfect monitoring in which all supergame equilibria with positive discount rates are bounded away from full efficiency uniformly in the discount rate provided the latter is strictly positive on the other hand if the players do not discount the future then every efficient one period payoff vector that dominates the one period equilibrium payoff vector can be attained by an equilibrium of the repeated game thus the correspondence that maps the players discount rate into the corresponding set of repeated game equilibrium payoff vectors is discontinuous at the point at which the discount rate is zero

a risk tolerance analysis for a joint price differentiation and inventory decisions problem with demand leakage effect abstract price differentiation is a commonly used practice in revenue management rm to improve a firm s profitability however most studies in the literature have considered a risk neutral firm to demonstrate the benefits of price differentiation the main contribution of this paper is in considering several important objectives while determining the optimal product prices and order production quantities for a risk adjusted firm with demand leakage effects in the presence of a price dependent stochastic demand the objectives considered include the maximization of a firm s expected profit and maximizing the probability of exceeding the risk adjusted expected revenue closed form expressions for optimal product prices and production quantities are derived for several of these objectives a numerical study is also presented to calibrate the impact of a firm s risk tolerance and other factors such as demand leakage market demand variability on the firm s profitability and its optimal decision

an integrated approach to price differentiation and inventory decisions with demand leakage abstract price differentiation is among widely practiced tools in revenue management rm in which a seller offers same or slightly different products or services at different prices to its customers earlier research studies have shown that the benefits from price differentiation are evident when the market segmentation is assumed to be perfect in a perfect market segmentation customers associated with a market segment do not move between market segments however it is not uncommon to observe that a market segmentation a firm operates in is seldom prefect and due to imperfect segmentation customers move between market segments which is also referred to as demand leakage in addition the firms predominantly experience stochastic demand and thus a firm experiences both the short sales and leftovers due to demand uncertainty this research proposes a model to address the issue of an optimal market segmentation using price differentiation as a tool we also establish an integrated framework for pricing order and production quantity allocation decisions in each market segment when a firm experiences demand leakage from one market segment to another and faces price dependent stochastic demand the model is analyzed to determine an optimal decision framework on pricing order quantity allocation and market segmentation using the proposed price differentiation due to the complexity of the problem both the hierarchical and joint optimization approaches are developed a simplified closed form optimal solution to the problem is outlined in the case of hierarchical approach the model is also analyzed for a situation in which the distribution of the price dependent stochastic demand is unknown and a distribution free approach is utilized to address the problem it is identified that the use of distribution free approach also results in a closed form optimal solution to the problem a numerical study is presented to demonstrate the performance of the model and solution approaches the benefits of the optimal market segmentation using a differentiation price are also highlighted along with the proposed integrated optimal decision framework when a firm experiences demand leakage

testing for excess sensitivity in consumption a state space unobserved components approach this paper tests the joint rational expectations permanent income hypothesis using a state space unobserved components model to specify anticipated and unanticipated elements of permanent transitory and seasonal components of the income path and measure their relationships with consumption the results do not find significant excess sensitivity however a similar test that accounts for seasonality using x 11 adjusted data does thus indicating that seasonal filtering may be responsible for previous empirical rejections of the theory since the model includes consumption information in estimating the different components of income it also improves upon univariate investigations of the relative magnitudes of permanent and transitory disturbances to the income path

new evidence on excess sensitivity of household consumption the monthly salaries and allowances of korean government employees are known in advance but vary greatly throughout the year using a korean monthly panel data set the present study examines how nondurable consumption expenditures in households headed by government employees respond to predictable income changes the study finds a moderate excess sensitivity in consumption that can be attributed to about 9 of the households further analysis shows that these 9 of the households have lower committed expenditures and are likely inattentive consumers

living by the golden rule multimarket contact in the u s airline industry this paper examines empirically the effects of multimarket contact on pricing in the u s airline industry the analysis of the time series and cross sectional variability of airline fares in the 1000 largest domestic city pair routes reveals the presence of statistically significant and quantitatively important multimarket effects fares are higher in city pair markets served by carriers with extensive interroute contacts these findings are consistent with the claims of industry experts that airlines live by the golden rule i e that they refrain from initiating aggressive pricing actions in a given route for fear of what their competitors might do in other jointly contested routes during his testimony mr steven b elkins senior director of marketing systems development for northwest airlines cited an example in which northwest lowered fares on night flights that were flying with empty seats in a number of routes from minneapolis and upper midwest cities to various west coast cities he said that continental airlines swiftly responded by cutting prices in important northwest markets mr elkins s memo advises northwest pricing analysts we will live by the golden rule in his testimony he explained that the golden rule in that context was that i did not want my pricing analyst initiating actions in another carrier s market like chicago for fear of what that other carrier might do to retaliate wall street journal october 9 1990 p b1

multimarket contact in continuous time games abstract this paper investigates whether multimarket contact is effective in increasing the value of collusion we show that for any discount rate the set of equilibrium payoffs average per market expands through multimarket contact in continuous time games

the permanent income hypothesis and consumption durability analysis based on japanese panel data the permanent income hypothesis with durability of commodities is tested on a panel of about 2 000 japanese households for several commodity groups under static expectations about real interest rates and for some class of utility functions consumption which is a distributed lag function of current and past expenditure follows a martingale main empirical results are i the durability of commodities usually classified as services is substantial ii the hypothesis applies to about 85 percent of the population consisting of wage earners and iii income changes explain only a small fraction of the movements in expenditure

the credit constrained consumer an empirical study of demand and supply in the loan market this article presents an empirical analysis of credit constrained households in which models of both demand and supply sides of the market for loans are simultaneously estimated we develop a discrete choice logit model of the consumers decision on whether or not to apply for credit combining this with a reduced form logistic model for the banks credit granting decision we then estimate the model with cross sectional data as a nonlinear ordered sequential logit our findings shed light on the criteria used by banks in assessing credit applications and reveal the strong dependence of preferences on demographic characteristics the results also suggest that agents face significant fixed costs in applying for loans the fact that we jointly estimate models of both supply and demand sides of the credit market enables us to examine whether particular groups in the population are more frequently credit rationed because they tend to demand more loans or because they are viewed as bad credit risks by lenders

on the durability of non durable goods abstract using both monthly and quarterly data this paper shows that the durability rates of non durable goods and services are significantly greater than zero and in line with the prediction of the theory the common practice of testing consumption and consumption related models with the national income and product account category of non durables and services under the assumption of zero durability may thus be inappropriate

effective lower bound risk abstract even when the policy rate is currently not constrained by its effective lower bound elb the possibility that the policy rate will become constrained in the future lowers today s inflation by creating tail risk in future inflation and thus reducing expected inflation in an empirically rich model calibrated to match key features of the u s economy we find that the tail risk induced by the elb causes inflation to undershoot the target rate of 2 by as much as 50 basis points at the economy s risky steady state our model suggests that achieving the inflation target may be more difficult now than before the great recession if the likely decline in long run neutral rates has led households and firms to revise up their estimate of the frequency of future elb events