when behavior matters games and computation in a behavioral theory of the firm abstract a behavioral theory of the firm presents a computational model of a duopoly that is based on observations of firm behavior and that incorporates a range of behavioral constructs because this model is starkly different from the traditional game theoretic analysis of duopoly it useful to compare the performance of a game theoretic version of this model shorn of all behavioral constructs with the original cyert and march paradigm to do this we calibrate the game theoretic model with all the economic components of the computational model and we assume that firms could choose either cooperative or non cooperative strategies we find that the pricing strategy of the computational firms is similar to that found in a non cooperative game theoretic outcome and that the advertising choice of the computational firms is less than what non cooperative or cooperative game theoretic behavior would predict we also consider how initializing the choices of the computational firm with those of the game theoretic firms affects their performance informing the computational firms in this way led to greater changes in advertising than pricing strategies profits of the computational firms were greatest when their initial choices were those found in a non cooperative equilibrium

dynamic oligopolies without full information and with continuously distributed time lags abstract dynamic oligopolies are examined without full information on the price function with each firm using a perceived price function that usually differs from the actual inverse demand function of the market it is assumed that firms experience time lags in obtaining and implementing information on the price and also on output under realistic assumptions we show that without time lags the steady state is always locally asymptotically stable whereas in the presence of time lags situations of local instability may occur the possibility of limit cycles is examined and some special cases are considered

whatever happened to africa s rapid urbanisation it is widely believed that urbanisation is occurring faster in sub saharan africa than anywhere else in the world as migrants move from rural to urban settlements this is a fallacy while the populations of numerous urban areas are growing rapidly the urbanisation levels of many countries are increasing slowly if at all natural increase rather than net in migration is the predominant growth factor in most urban populations african governments policymakers and international donors need to acknowledge fundamental changes in urbanisation trends and respond to the irrefutable messages these impart about urban employment incomes and economic development

laboratory tests of equilibrium predictions with disequilibrium data we examine a common practice used within previous studies of laboratory markets testing equilibrium models using some data from markets that have not reached an equilibrium we examine the effect of this practice when it is applied to some laboratory markets where an appreciable number of them eventually satisfied an operational definition of an equilibrium our data suggest that for our markets significantly different equilibrium test results would be obtained when using all data available in market periods analysed in previous studies rather than using only equilibrium data for our markets choices made in disequilibrium are quite different from those in equilibrium this paper is primarily concerned with examining one common practice used in previous studies of laboratory markets this practice is testing equilibrium models using some data from markets that have not reached an equilibrium the data set used typically consists of all available laboratory data from the last period an average of the last few periods an average of all periods or from the nth period for some fixed n i know of no attempt at least formally to assure all data were from markets in equilibrium markets where market choices have stabilized recently some laboratory markets were run where an appreciable number of them eventually satisfied an operational definition of an equilibrium could the use of disequilibrium data significantly affect the results of tests we might make of some equilibrium models for these laboratory markets this practice would be desirable if the disequilibrium data provided a useful estimate of the behaviour that would have been observed if an equilibrium had been obtained on the other hand if some disequilibrium behaviour is qualitatively different from the behaviour that would be observed in an equilibrium this practice could produce misleading results within this paper we examine the effect of this practice when it is used on our laboratory data

smallholders land access in sub saharan africa a new landscape while scholars long recognized the importance of land markets as a key driver of rural non farm development and transformation in rural areas evidence on the extent of their operation and the nature of participants remains limited we use household data from 6 countries to show that there is great potential for such markets to increase productivity and equalize factor ratios while rental markets transfer land to land poor and labor rich producers their operation and thus impact may be constrained by policy restrictions their functioning may also be constrained by ill defined or insecure rights that may arise from failure to fully compensate existing rights in cases of expropriation a failure to implement more broadly land policies or to do so in a gender sensitive manner methodological and substantive conclusions are derived

assessing the performance of renewable electricity support instruments abstract the performance of feed in tariffs and tradable certificates is assessed on criteria of efficacy efficiency equity and institutional feasibility in the early stage of transition to an energy system based entirely on renewable energy supplies renewable electricity can only thrive if support takes into account the specific technical economic and political problems which result from embedding this electricity in conventional power systems whose technology organizational structure environmental responsibility and general mission differ profoundly from the emerging renewable based system support schemes need to capture the diversity of power supplies the variable nature of some renewable supplies and their different attributes for the purposes of public policy they must take into account the variety of generators including small decentralized generation emerging in a renewable based system and the new relationships between generators and customers renewable energy policies need a clear point of reference because the incumbent power systems are not sustainable they must adapt to the requirements of the renewable ones not the other way round incumbent systems carry the responsibility of paying the transition something that corresponds best with the polluter pays principle

impacts of renewables obligation with recycling of the buy out fund tradable green certificate tgc or renewables obligation ro programs typically include a buy out option but only in the uk the buy out fund is redistributed back to the suppliers who have submitted the certificates we show that when the buy out fund is redistributed the supply of renewable energy responds positively to the market conditions and renewables target without it the buy out rate is equivalent to a maximum price however redistribution of the buy out fund may induce strategic behavior from producers who have market power we analyze the impacts of market power and integration on the supply of conventional and renewable energy under the ro program with the buy out fund recycled and devise some empirical tests to predict these impacts policy implications of this study are discussed with special reference to the new fit cfd system

identifying and addressing land governance constraints to support intensification and land market operation evidence from 10 african countries beyond concerns about agricultural productivity growth issues of land governance have attracted global interest as demand for land acquisition by outsiders has increased rapidly but most of the transfers failed to live up to expectations and instead disrupted local livelihoods we use the land governance assessment framework to identify key conceptual issues and identify how land governance in 10 african countries compares to global good practice results point towards weak protection of rights in practice large gaps in female land access and limited outreach and effectiveness of institutions to record rights and adjudicate disputes we note that programs to improve performance along these lines had significant impact in other contexts suggesting that efforts to improve land governance will be warranted and should be closely monitored and evaluated in an effort to identify models suited to african conditions and assess their impact and interaction with other factor markets

large scale agricultural investments and smallholder welfare a comparison of wage labor and outgrower channels in tanzania summary this article evaluates household welfare effects of large scale agricultural investments in tanzania one of the main recipients of such investments in africa specifically the article compares households participating in sugar and rice investments through outgrower schemes or as agro industry workers with non participants in terms of household income and income poverty building on primary household data it is one of the first studies to empirically analyze ex post impacts of large scale agricultural investments in africa the analysis draws on cross section survey data of 516 households collected in kilombero district a priority cluster for the southern agricultural growth corridor of tanzania sagcot the results show overall positive household welfare differences between participants of the investments and the respective counterfactual however there are large differences between arrangements and subsectors estimated effects for outgrowers are largest yet for land rich outgrowers more so than for land poor effects for agro industry workers in the sugar investment are significantly larger than for those in the rice investment though in both investments land poor workers seem to benefit hence the study results suggest potential benefits of outgrower schemes and potentials of agro industry wage employment for the land poor to escape extreme poverty yet it also stresses particularly the need to address the constraints of land poor outgrowers qualitative interviews for example pointed to growing risks for land poor outgrowers in the context of rising elite capture by larger outgrowers

towards a sustainable electrification in ghana a review of renewable energy deployment policies abstract ghana has been facing perennial power rationing over the years due to fuel supply challenges the country s energy system is likely to suffer additional strain from rising energy demand fueled by population growth rapid urbanization and economic development fortunately there are enormous renewable energy resources which can provide sustainable electrification as backbone to socioeconomic development while curbing global warming ghana s energy strategy targets 100 access to electricity and 10 share of sustainable power in national generation mix by 2020 despite the existence of numerous policies and a renewable energy act current contribution of non conventional renewable energy to electricity generation is less than 1 the right mix of policies to address the unique domestic conditions and achieve its specific development goals remains insufficient this study reviews the regulatory framework financing incentives and other provisions of ghana s renewable energy act it critically examines the policy s strengths weaknesses opportunities and treats based on comparative analysis and lessons drawn from failed and successful implementation of similar policies around the world the study also assesses the impact of policy on project development it was found that the performance of ghana s renewable energy policy on grid connected electricity has been poor compared to its target the fundamental reasons for this unsatisfactory performance may be attributed to partial implementation of policies lack of market driven support schemes lack of pricing policy framework weak grid network limited access to funds and inconsistencies in renewable energy development strategies this study proposes the following countermeasures i ghana should comprehensively harmonize renewable energy regulatory and fiscal policies with domestic electricity pricing regime ii market driven support schemes should be prioritized for cost effectiveness and minimum governmental influence these reforms can help eliminate some of the major barriers to sustainable electrification in ghana while the lessons provide a learning curve for other african countries

promoting industrial symbiosis empirical observations of low carbon innovations in the humber region uk industrial symbiosis has been identified as a strategy to increase resource efficiency lower carbon emissions and increase business growth one type of industrial symbiosis is the innovative use of wastes from one company as a resource for another company however empirical understanding of implementing waste to resource innovations and hence how they can be promoted by public and private organisations is still limited therefore this study explored how companies implemented waste to resource innovations in the humber region uk five case studies were conducted with companies that used or supplied a secondary biomass resource for power generation or fuel manufacturing this article discusses how companies developed relations with biowaste resource suppliers or clients the results expanded operational understanding of waste to resource innovation processes as it revealed companies activities and their strategic considerations comparing the case studies the social processes through which relations between biowaste resource partners developed were largely similar however two different networking strategies were identified some companies had to engage new industries and therefore diversified their resource partners during the innovation process but strived to limit the number of resource partners once the innovation was realised conversely others expanded activities within their network and hence strengthened existing relations during the innovation but strived to increase the number of resource partners afterwards to manage risky over dependencies within their supply network finally resource security economic benefits and policy and regulation were of key importance to conclude operational and strategic insights to promote the uptake of waste to resource innovations are presented however further research is necessary before broad generalizations can be considered

the uk s levy control framework for renewable electricity support effects and significance there is a long standing debate over price vs quantity approaches to supporting the deployment of renewable electricity technologies in the context of a a recent shift from quantity to price based support the uk has also introduced a new form of budgetary framework the levy control framework lcf the introduction of the lcf has been very important for investors but has received relatively little attention in the academic literature the paper gives an overview of the lcf explores its effects on renewables policy on consumers and on investor confidence arguing that an unintended consequence of its introduction has been to increase uncertainty through interactions with underlying support mechanisms a number of problems with the current scope and design of the lcf are noted it is argued that the lcf is best understood as aimed at avoiding a political backlash against renewable support policy in a context where the benefits of such policy are concentrated economically and socially the paper concludes by placing the lcf within a wider context of a shift towards greater budgetary control over renewable energy support policy across european countries

the enactment of socio technical transition pathways a reformulated typology and a comparative multi level analysis of the german and uk low carbon electricity transitions 1990 2014 abstract this paper aims to make two contributions to the sustainability transitions literature in particular the geels and schot 2007 res policy 36 3 399 transition pathways typology first it reformulates and differentiates the typology through the lens of endogenous enactment identifying the main patterns for actors formal institutions and technologies second it suggests that transitions may shift between pathways depending on struggles over technology deployment and institutions both contributions are demonstrated with a comparative analysis of unfolding low carbon electricity transitions in germany and the uk between 1990 2014 the analysis shows that germany is on a substitution pathway enacted by new entrants deploying small scale renewable electricity technologies rets while the uk is on a transformation pathway enacted by incumbent actors deploying large scale rets further analysis shows that the german transition has recently shifted from a stretch and transform substitution pathway to a fit and conform pathway because of a fightback from utilities and altered institutions it also shows that the uk transition moved from moderate to substantial incumbent reorientation as government policies became stronger recent policy changes however substantially downscaled uk renewables support which is likely to shift the transition back to weaker reorientation

bounded rationality dynamic oligopoly and conjectural variations abstract we propose a dynamic model of n firm oligopoly that provides a logically consistent reinterpretation of conjectural variations each firm solves a dynamic optimization problem believing that the other firms will alter their future choices in proportion to its own current change these beliefs adapt in light of observed behavior we show that steady state equilibria can range from complete cooperation to predatory play and provide conditions under which the firms behavior and beliefs converge to a steady state the sufficient conditions for stability are more easily satisfied the smaller the cross effects among firms through demand or belief parameters they are also more easily satisfied in a price setting than in a quantity setting differentiated products model

effect of changes in population density and crop productivity on farm households in malawi this study examines the ex ante farm household effects of changes in family size yield potential and yield gaps using a farm household simulation model that reflects the economic and biophysical conditions of central malawi disparities between growth in human population and crop yields present challenges for farm household crop production and income in sub saharan africa we focus on the effect of growth in yield potential and a more efficient use of livestock manure as approaches to improving crop production and incomes in the face of looming population pressures our results suggest that even without considering climate change expected changes in population density and crop prices in 2050 mean that per person crop production and income may fall by 21 compared to 2013 values if yield potential and yield gaps remain constant however per person crop production and income could increase in 2050 by 8 compared to 2013 values if 1 growth rates of yield potential rise for maize by 1 13 each year and for legumes rise by at least 0 4 each year and 2 farmers use livestock manure more efficiently our foresight approach to considering crop production at the farm household scale supplements macro scale analyses of the production dimension of food security

regional distribution of photovoltaic deployment in the uk and its determinants a spatial econometric approach abstract photovoltaic pv panels offer significant potential for contributing to the uk s energy policy goals relating to decarbonisation of the energy system security of supply and affordability the substantive drop in the cost of panels since 2007 coupled with the introduction of the feed in tariff fit scheme in 2010 has resulted in a rapid increase in installation of pv panels in the uk from 26 5mwp in 2009 to over 5gw by the end of 2014 yet there has been no comprehensive analysis of the determinants of pv deployment in the uk this paper addresses this gap by employing spatial econometrics methods to a recently available data set at a fine geographical detail following a traditional regression analysis a general to specific approach has been adopted where spatial variations in the relationships have been examined utilising the spatial durbin model using the cross sectional data relating to the uk nuts level 3 data empirical results indicate that demand for electricity population density pollution levels education level of households and housing types are among the factors that affect pv uptake in a region moreover lagrange multiplier test results indicate that the spatial durbin model may be properly applied to describe the pv uptake relationship in the uk as there are significant regional spillover effects

governing community energy feed in tariffs and the development of community wind energy schemes in the united kingdom and germany this paper analyses the development of community energy in the uk by comparing it to germany in relation to decentralisation scales and ownership structures particularly of wind energy varying approaches to energy generation at the community scale provide interesting insights into the impact of policy innovation as well as the capacity of national energy frameworks to foster socially innovative engagement practices beyond the purely technological diffusion of innovations by examining interactions between technological and social innovations with the help of a qualitative analysis opportunities for potential generators not traditionally engaged in energy generation to tap into these innovation systems are analysed this paper suggests that greater commitment to diversification beyond the implementation of policy measures such as the feed in tariff is required to provide communities with the capacity to develop new generation practices in terms of scale and ownership the uk in particular is struggling to protect these new generation practices which allow communities to derive benefits facilitated by specific energy policy measures according to their potential it concludes by indicating areas where niche protection might need to be expanded if community energy is to play a greater role in the uk s ambitious transition to a low carbon economy

rural livelihood diversification in sub saharan africa a literature review abstractthis article provides a comprehensive review of the literature on the nature and evolution of rural livelihood diversification in sub saharan africa and the situation regarding smallholders it reveals mixed findings about the causes and consequences of livelihood diversification on rural smallholders adopting this strategy a lot of evidence from the literature suggests that it is relatively better off smallholders with sufficient assets who achieve successful livelihood diversification mainly by exploiting opportunities and synergies between farm and nonfarm activities because of asset constraints increase in incomes and wealth based on livelihood diversification has not yet benefitted the large majority of smallholders

state conditional fertilizer yield response on western kenyan farms 15 16 17 we acknowledge with gratitude support from the rockefeller foundation the united states agency for 18 international development usaid leadership enhancement in agriculture program leap and the 19 coupled natural and human systems program of the biocomplexity initiative of the national science 20 foundation through grant bcs 0215890 the world agroforestry center icraf graciously hosted 21 the lead author for part of the research and provided soil test results we are also grateful to james

african enclosures a default mode of development abstract this paper draws on recent empirical studies of changing land and water use in semi arid africa to identify socioeconomic and political dynamics and discusses their implications for current policy which emphasizes decentralization and the strengthening of local often customary land rights the paper presents cases where local initiative in response to market opportunities is driving investment and intensification of water use to increase production this trend is associated with an increase in individualized control and market relationships in access to land with increasing disadvantage to the poor it is argued that this default pattern of development is occurring irrespective of the formal system of land tenure and may be promoted rather than inhibited by policies of decentralizing natural resource management

does population pressure induce farm intensification empirical evidence from tigrai region ethiopia the scarcity of land for crop and livestock production is critical in countries with growing populations the idea that increasing population density leads to natural resource depletion and economic failure as predicted by malthus or rather to farm intensification as hypothesized by boserup motivates this research this article examines how high population pressure in northern ethiopia influences smallholders farm intensification by applying recursive estimation with a control function approach using data from 518 randomly selected farmers although our empirical results are more in favor of the boserupian hypothesis the findings also reveal that both malthusian and boserupian forces coexist consistent with malthus theory high population pressure is found to be associated with small farm size and herd size population pressure affected both technology use breed cow stall feeding and modern cattle feed and output supply milk yield milk income and straw output as predicted by boserup s theory the use of modern input and output supply initially increases with increasing population pressure but declines again when population densities pass a critical threshold 800 persons km2 supporting malthus hypothesis the estimation results also revealed that both milk and straw supply responded positively to prices free grazing and stall feeding are found to be complementary activities likewise crop farm income and off farm job have a nonlinear relation with population pressure implying that both initially increase and then decrease with rising population pressure

gender and policy roles in farm household diversification in zambia summary many african governments faced with low rural incomes and food security challenges have developed input subsidy programs in order to enhance agricultural productivity this paper adds to recent literature analyzing the effects of input subsidy programs and gender on crop diversification in sub saharan africa we investigate the effect of zambia s input subsidy program on crop allocation patterns by gender in relatively land abundant zambia we test both single equation crop diversification index models and multivariate regression models of cropland allocation our study finds that input subsidies reduce crop diversification more in male headed households than in female headed households further multivariate regression results confirm that this occurs because female headed households expand maize acreage less in response to the input subsidy these findings suggest that greater cropland diversification will be maintained if input subsidy programs are accompanied by loan programs and other assistance which support leadership roles for women in farm households

the rural non farm economy prospects for growth and poverty reduction summary policy makers have high expectations for the rural non farm economy rnfe given high income shares growing employment and frequently low capital requirements they see the rnfe as a potential pathway out of poverty for their rural poor yet available evidence suggests that pro poor rural non farm growth does not occur automatically for the poor to benefit from rural non farm growth policy makers must stimulate buoyant rural economies with robust non farm income growth not simply low productivity employment moreover the poor must gain access to growing market niches fluid labor markets provide one important bridge linking the rural poor to growing non farm opportunities

renewable electricity support systems are feed in systems taking the lead abstract support systems for renewable energy sourced electricity res e can be classified into price and quantity based systems their most representative instruments are feed in systems price based and quota systems e g green certificates or a renewable portfolio standard quantity based the origins of these support systems are quite different and are motivated by different political and economic needs likewise their geographical distribution and effectiveness also differ worldwide feed in systems are the most widespread res e support system in recent years some classical quota countries have partially or even totally changed to feed in systems feed in systems seem to encourage higher res e deployment technology diversity and investor security although the manufacturing capacity for certain res e technologies has been more developed in some feed in countries lately this has changed to some extent due to the incorporation of emerging countries in the res e industry traditionally quota systems appeared to be more compatible with liberalisation of the electricity market however since the introduction of the premium system this argument can be countered since feed in premiums can be considered compatible with the electricity market as quota systems regarding the price paid for res e in quota countries higher green certificate prices have not led to higher res e quantities moreover the relative support levels in quota countries are higher on average than in fit countries contradicting the common argument that quota systems are more cost effective additionally feed in systems especially if stepped tariffs are designed encourage higher res e geographical dispersion avoiding the concentration of res e facilities in just a few locations which can lead to nimby not in my back yard syndrome all these factors may explain the steady spread of feed in systems worldwide the purpose of this paper is to assess the performance of quota and feed in systems thereby contributing to the worldwide debate on the suitability of the different res e support systems

how does population density influence agricultural intensification and productivity this study uses household level panel data on smallholder farmers in ethiopia to estimate how rural population density rpd affects agricultural intensification and productivity our results suggest that higher rpd is associated with smaller farm sizes and has a positive effect on input demand represented by increased fertilizer use per hectare overall increased input use does not lead to a corresponding increase in staple crop yields and thus farm income declines as population density increases this suggests a situation where farmers in areas of high rpd may be stuck in place unable to sustainably intensify in the face of rising rpd and declining farm sizes 2014 elsevier ltd

oligopoly experimentation of learning with simulated markets abstract learning is investigated using experimental methods agents have no information about demand conditions the same oligopoly market is finitely repeated and the only link between successive markets is that agents acquire experience over time as the game is played adaptive as well as least squares learning are tested the model of price adjustment followed by firms indicates that the non cooperative bertrand nash equilibrium constitutes an attractor to players strategies

agricultural transformation in africa assessing the evidence in ethiopia summary despite significant efforts africa has struggled to imitate the rapid agricultural growth that took place in asia in the 1960s and 1970s as a rare but important exception ethiopia s agriculture sector recorded remarkable rapid growth during 2004 14 this paper explores this rapid change in the agriculture sector of this important country the second most populous in africa we review the evidence on agricultural growth and decompose the contributions of modern inputs to growth using an adjusted solow decomposition model we also highlight the key pathways ethiopia followed to achieve its agricultural growth we find that land and labor use expanded significantly and total factor productivity grew by about 2 3 per year over the study period moreover modern input use more than doubled explaining some of this growth the expansion in modern input use appears to have been driven by high government expenditures on the agriculture sector including agricultural extension but also by an improved road network higher rural education levels and favorable international and local price incentives

adapting electricity markets to decarbonisation and security of supply objectives toward a hybrid regime abstract the policy objectives of decarbonisation of the electricity sector whilst maintaining security of supply have led to a new wave of market reforms in many jurisdictions which liberalised their industry there is a wide range of models under this new hybrid regime which essentially combine the energy market with planning and long term risk transfer arrangements this paper takes an institutionalist approach in terms of modularity of the market design and reviews the issues with the standard historical market model which led to the introduction of additional long term modules we then study the interactions between the existing and new modules and identify ways in which the initial market modules can be improved to address inconsistencies with the new modules we conclude by discussing the conditions under which the various changes in market architectures could converge toward a hybrid regime structured around a two step competition with a competition for the market via the auctioning of long term contracts to support investment followed by competition in the market for short term system optimisation via the energy market

the progressive inefficiency of replacing renewable obligation certificates with contracts for differences in the uk electricity market abstract this paper looks at the emerging risk return profile for new renewable assets as a conventional wholesale electricity market progressively decarbonises using a detailed fundamental model of price formation risks under increasing replacement of fossil fuel facilities with onshore and offshore wind we show that the risk return profile becomes less attractive over time and may therefore need sustained and possibly increasing policy support furthermore we show that green certificate trading may become progressively more attractive as a supplementary support to wholesale prices compared to fixed feed in tariffs this is because the increasingly negative correlation between renewable output and wholesale prices reduces its revenue risk compared to fixed feed in tariffs if other factors remain constant and thereby improves conventional financial performance risk metrics in particular this suggests that the recent energy policy change in britain to move away from green certificates and into contracts for differences may have been ill founded

population pressures and agricultural development in developing countries a conceptual framework and recent evidence abstract the purpose of this paper are a to develop a more comprehensive conceptual approach for investigating the responses to increases in rural population density in developing countries and b to present recent empirical evidence illustrating these responses the variety of responses is empirically illustrated for broad regions in developing countries including increases in arable land land intensification out migration and fertility decline though the focus is on the economic changes viewing the economic changes both across countries and over time suggests wide scope for further increases in agricultural output even with existing technology nevertheless prospects for raising living standards in the developing countries are better with slower rates of population growth

a world of cities the causes and consequences of urbanization in poorer countries historically urban growth required enough development to grow and transport significant agricultural surpluses or a government effective enough to build an empire but there has been an explosion of poor mega cities over the last 30 years a simple urban model illustrates that in closed economies agricultural prosperity leads to more urbanization but that in an open economy urbanization increases with agricultural desperation the challenge of developing world mega cities is that poverty and weak governance reduce the ability to address the negative externalities that come with density this paper models the connection between urban size and institutional failure and shows that urban anonymity causes institutions to break down for large cities with weak governments draconian policies may be the only way to curb negative externalities suggesting a painful trade off between dictatorship and disorder a simple model suggests that private provision of infrastructure to reduce negative externalities is less costly when city populations are low or institutions are strong but that public provision can cost less in bigger cities

mechanization in ghana emerging demand and the search for alternative supply models influential studies in the 1980s and early 1990s drew on the boserup ruthenberg theories of farming systems evolution to argue that african countries were not yet ready for widespread agricultural mechanization through applying the theories of farming systems evolution and of induced innovation in technical change this paper shows that demand for certain mechanized farming operations particularly plowing has emerged even among smallholders suggesting that supply issues may now be the main constraint to successful mechanization we therefore adopt a supply chain approach to analyze two types of mechanization practices in ghana i e a recent state led mechanization program and the private sector led service hiring market against an international perspective by drawing on three asian supply models we identify two major flaws in existing policies first the agricultural mechanization service centers that the government promotes fail to use tractors services with sufficient intensity second direct importation of agricultural machinery by the government inhibits imports of appropriate and affordable machinery in contrast the development of mechanized service hiring market in which medium and large scale farmers who are tractor owners provide hiring out services to small scale farmers represents a promising model for sustainable mechanization in ghana this private sector led second model is consistent with international experiences

adaptation to land constraints is africa different since the seminal works of malthus and boserup scientists have long debated the impact of population growth and land constraints on the wellbeing of rural people today these concerns are particularly relevant to africa with its rapid population growth very small farms and chronic food insecurity in this paper we examine adaptation to falling land labor ratios using a comprehensive theoretical framework in which households faced with binding land constraints can respond in three ways intensifying agricultural production diversifying out of agriculture and reducing fertility rates using cross country data and drawing upon the existing literature we reach three conclusions first population density is associated with reduced fallows and more intensive use of land but not fertilizer use or irrigation indicating major challenges in achieving sustainable intensification or agricultural productivity growth second there is little evidence of successful non farm diversification in response to land pressures in africa from domestic or international income sources third rural africans in land constrained countries desire smaller families but have thus far benefited little from family planning policies these findings underscore the need for a coordinated multi sectoral approach to sustainably reduce poverty in the region

historic paths and future expectations the macroeconomic impacts of the offshore wind technologies in the uk abstract offshore wind power osw plays a key role within the uk strategy for a transition towards a low carbon economy offering vast potential for establishing a high tech manufacturing industry previous experiences in the onshore sector owp suggest the uk might fail in fully capturing these macroeconomic benefits in this work we investigate the history of uk renewable policies comparing its national strategy to those of other major osw export countries through the use of a numerical general equilibrium model we quantify the macroeconomic impacts under three scenarios a baseline which relies on previous estimates and foresee limited local content a contamination scenario where the uk content reaches the same levels of owp and a non myopic scenario where investors expect governmental support to decrease or disappear replicating a common path of past renewable policies we identify the uk as a fdi oriented country our results suggest that increasing the share of locally sourced capital goods in osp to owp level could generate larger income and employment effects in the uk economy we find that under forward looking investors the economic benefits are significantly lower than the case of myopic agents our results show an inherent conflict with stated purposes of uk policy for osw

the existence of nash equilibria in reaction functions for dynamic models of oligopoly consider cournot s stability analysis of his mineral spring duopoly cournot 1838 each of the two firms believes that its rival s output in the next period will simply equal that observed currently profit maximization yields reaction functions which are explicitly dynamic and are assumed to govern the actual evolution of the system cournot proved that the system is asymptotically stable in this simplest case cournot s result was shown by theocharis 1960 not to generalize to three or more firms fisher 1961 discusses more general cost and demand functions than those used by cournot even in the case considered by cournot however there is an obvious conceptual objection each firm s output will generally vary from one period to the next flagrantly violating its rival s conjecture some of james friedman s work especially 1968 1973 1976 and 1977 might best be viewed as an attempt to eliminate this delusional quality from dynamic models of oligopoly consider a typical duopoly scenario with two firms making repeated simultaneous quantity determinations friedman more commonly discusses price setting models but these are straightforwardly analogous each firm believes that the other firm s behavior is determined only by the quantity pair selected in the previous period in friedman s work as distinct from cournot s these beliefs are ultimately required to be consistent with the other firm s actual behavior for example firm 2 believes that firm l s output in the current period is given as

participation in rural land rental markets in sub saharan africa who benefits and by how much evidence from malawi and zambia we use nationally representative household level panel survey data in two neighboring countries in southern africa zambia and malawi to characterize the current status of rural land rental market participation by smallholder farmers and their subsequent welfare impacts rural rental market participation is much higher in densely populated malawi than in lower density zambia reflecting the role of land scarcity in driving rental market development consistent with previous literature we find evidence that rental markets contribute to efficiency gains within the smallholder sector by facilitating the transfer of land from less able to more able producers on average in both countries furthermore we find that rental markets serve to re allocate land from relatively land rich to land poor households we examine the impacts of participation on a number of welfare outcomes and find evidence for generally positive returns to renting in land in both countries on average however our analysis also indicates that the returns to renting in land vary strongly with scale of production tenants who produce more have larger returns to renting in and many of the smaller producers who rent in do so at an economic loss the impacts of renting out i e participating in markets as landlords are decidedly more mixed with overall negative returns to landlords in malawi and negligible returns to landlords in zambia the findings in this article highlight the need for researchers and policymakers in sub saharan africa to stay attuned to how land rental market participation and its impacts evolve in the near future

comparing the innovation effects of support schemes for renewable electricity technologies a function of innovation approach abstract the aim of this paper is to provide a comparative assessment of the innovation effects of instruments which support the diffusion of renewable electricity technologies with a functions oriented technological innovation system perspective the paper provides a link between two major streams of the literature the functions of innovation systems and the literature on renewable electricity support schemes we show that when a functional perspective is adopted feed in tariffs are likely to be superior to other policy instruments quotas with tradable green certificates and tendering although they still need to be complemented with other instruments most importantly direct r d support furthermore those innovation effects are affected by the specific design elements of the instruments chosen

why is south korea s renewable energy policy failing a qualitative evaluation abstract this study explores the causes of the south korean government s failure to successfully deploy its renewable energy policy despite the south korean government s ongoing efforts since 2002 to promote the deployment of renewable energy the established deployment target has not been met and the share of renewable energy supply in total primary energy supply is poor compared to peer countries with a similar level of economic development therefore we attempt to find the causes of this policy failure using qualitative evaluation methods through the analyses conducted using focused interviews and secondary data we found that the domination of the fossil fuel and nuclear power industry s interests inconsistent policy shifts policy design that lacks sufficient support schemes poorly coordinated government activities and unsystemic and untimely monitoring and feedback have led to the failure of renewable energy deployment policies in south korea to overcome these problems we suggest that the south korean government should set more ambitious policy goals establish a new independent organization that focuses on energy policy issues use a varied policy mix and secure political support from diverse policy actors

high rural population density africa what are the growth requirements and who participates abstract a large and increasing proportion of agricultural growth in africa must come from continuous gains in land productivity in areas of high population density and hence with already relatively high yields what that requires is analogous to the green revolution in asia several features differentiate the african situation those include greater diversity in cropping pattern including a historically larger and more widespread tropical commodity export sector the physical infrastructure in rural africa is far inferior to that of most asian countries while the greater diversity of agriculture calls for a larger and more diverse institutional structure the reality is that the research systems the ancillary education systems to spread innovation and the rural financial systems are generally greatly inferior to those of asia at the beginning of the green revolution ethiopia s record of a steady six to seven percent growth for agriculture and nearly halving of rural poverty demonstrates that with the right policies and investments a very poor country starting with poor physical and institutional infrastructure can bring a major contribution from agriculture growth to increased gdp and reduced poverty as in asia the bulk of accelerated agricultural growth will come from small commercial farmers they have sufficient farm income to reach or exceed the poverty level those are farms with depending on the country as little as 0 75 hectares to a few tens of hectares of land they comprise up to half the rural population and produce on the order of 70 80 percent of agricultural output they are in general not poor the poor have inadequate land to reach the poverty level initially with much underemployment and with substantial non farm employment the primary driver of poverty reduction is the small commercial farmer spending on the order of half of increased income on nontradable employment intensive goods and services from the rural non farm sector

learning from experience the development of the renewables obligation in england and wales 2002 2010 abstract the uk has enviable renewable resources both onshore wind and offshore wind wave and tidal the offshore valuation group 2010 the government has had policy mechanisms in place since 1990 to encourage these resources to be developed the current mechanism the renewables obligation ro was specifically designed to emphasise competition and therefore to fit in with the uk s overall strategic approach to energy policy however as yet it has not delivered the capacity that it was designed to do and as a result the uk faces a difficult challenge in attempting to meet european wide renewable energy targets for 2020 as well as longer term decarbonisation targets this paper explores some of the major reasons why the ro has performed so poorly to date and considers the prospects for improvement up to 2020 it concludes that the strategic emphasis on competition in the support mechanisms has played a key role in limiting renewables development but that the mechanism has changed significantly since it was introduced however these changes together with proposals for electricity market reform still do not address important elements of risk in comparison with a standard feed in tariff

smallholder participation in vegetable exports and age disaggregated labor allocation in northern tanzania modern agricultural supply chains have been playing an increasingly important role in developing countries and have had significant effects on rural labor markets this article analyses the effects of smallholder farmer participation in export vegetable supply chains in northern tanzania on both household hired labor demand and off farm labor supply using an age disaggregated approach in our sample neither separability nor exogeneity of smallholder farmer participation in export supply chains can be rejected hence we apply lognormal double hurdle models and find that participation in export supply chains positively affects households decision to hire labor from all age groups we also find that it increases the unconditional overall level of hired labor demand while the age disaggregated analysis shows that these effects mostly benefit rural youth however our sample does not allow us to establish statistically significant evidence of an effect on household off farm labor supply although the point estimates point to nonnegligible positive effect sizes

what drives renewable energy development abstract this viewpoint reviews renewable energy development in 14 markets that differ in market structure restructured vs not restructured use of feed in tariff fit yes vs no transmission planning anticipatory vs reactive and transmission interconnection cost allocated to a renewable generator high vs low we find that market restructuring is not a primary driver of renewable energy development renewable generation has the highest percent of total installed capacity in markets that use a fit employ anticipatory transmission planning and have loads or end users paying for most if not all of the transmission interconnection costs in contrast renewable developers have been less successful in markets that do not use a fit employ reactive transmission planning and have generators paying for most if not all of the transmission interconnection costs while these policies can lead to higher penetration of renewable energy in the short run their high cost to ratepayers can threaten the economic sustainability of renewable energy in the long run

migration and economic mobility in tanzania evidence from a tracking survey this study explores the extent to which migration has contributed to improved living standards of individuals in tanzania using longitudinal data on individuals the authors estimate the impact of migration on consumption growth between 1991 and 2004 the analysis addresses concerns about heterogeneity and unobservable factors correlated with both income changes and the decision to migrate the findings show that migration adds 36 percentage points to consumption growth during a period of considerable growth in consumption these results are robust to numerous tests and alternative specifications unpacking the findings the analysis finds that moving out of agriculture is correlated with much higher growth than staying in agriculture although growth is always higher in any sector if one physically moves economic mobility is strongly linked to geographic mobility the puzzle is why more people do not move if returns to geographic mobility are high the evidence is consistent with models in which exit barriers are set by home communities through social and family norms that prevent migration of certain categories of people

scarcity amidst abundance reassessing the potential for cropland expansion in africa abstract sub saharan africa is typically regarded as land abundant and previous efforts to estimate the true extent of potentially available cropland pac have largely affirmed this perception such efforts however have largely focused on production potential and have underemphasized economic profitability and other constraints to expansion this paper re estimates pac for africa in a more explicit economic framework that emphasizes the returns to agricultural production under a variety of assumptions using recent geospatial data existing pac estimates for africa are shown to be highly sensitive to assumptions about land productivity and market access and are moderately influenced by the use of alternative data sources the region s underutilized land resources are concentrated in relatively few countries many of which are fragile states between one half and two thirds of the region s surplus land is currently under forest cover conversion of forests to cropland would entail major environmental costs most of the continent s unexploited land resources are located far from input and output markets limiting their economic attractiveness in the long run improvements in infrastructure and agricultural productivity and the growth of hinterland towns will enhance the economic returns to cropland expansion in the short to medium term however the potential for profitable smallholder based cropland expansion in most african countries is likely to be much more limited than it is typically perceived to be

urban agriculture poverty and food security empirical evidence from a sample of developing countries urban agriculture may have a role to play in addressing urban food insecurity problems which are bound to become increasingly important with the secular trend towards the urbanization of poverty and of pop ulation in developing regions our understanding of the importance nature and food security implica tions of urban agriculture is however plagued by a lack of good quality reliable data while studies based on survey data do exist for several major cities much of the evidence is still qualitative if not anec dotal using a recently created dataset bringing together comparable nationally representative house hold survey data for 15 developing or transition countries this paper analyzes in a comparative international perspective the importance of urban agriculture for the urban poor and food insecure some clear hints do come from our analysis on the one hand the potential for urban agriculture to play a sub stantial role in urban poverty and food insecurity reduction should not be overemphasised as its share in income and overall agricultural production is often quite limited on the other hand though its role should also not be too easily dismissed particularly in much of africa and in all those countries in which agriculture provides a substantial share of income for the urban poor and for those groups of households to which it constitutes an important source of livelihoods we also find fairly consistent evidence of a positive statistical association between engagement in urban agriculture and dietary adequacy indicators

agricultural intensification in ghana evaluating the optimist s case for a green revolution abstract while there are valid reasons for a renewed interest in adapting the lessons of the asian green revolution to the african setting research must go further in identifying the main and potentially unique drivers of agricultural intensification within and across african countries in this study we look at the case of ghana to identify whether fast population growth and the remarkable agricultural performance the country has enjoyed in recent years have resulted in favorable conditions for the adoption of asian style green revolution technologies through descriptive analysis combined with empirical assessment of the economic efficiency of agriculture in different production systems and agroecologies we are able assess the relevance of green revolution technologies for agricultural production in ghana in particular we analyze whether fertilizer use in ghana is associated with high population density and intensive cereal production and whether land intensive innovations are associated with more efficient production practices overall we do not find evidence of asian style green revolution agricultural intensification in ghana in fact we find no correlation between population density and input intensity we also find that labor costs still play a major role in ghanaian agricultural development in limiting the adoption of labor intensive technologies even in relatively high population density areas

the roles of land tenure reforms and land markets in the context of population growth and land use intensification in africa this article reviews the past and potential future roles of land tenure reforms and land markets in sub saharan africa ssa as responses to population growth in the process of land use intensification and livelihood transformation the farm size distribution and the existence of an inverse relationship ir between farm size and land productivity in ssa and the implications of this relationship for efficiency and equity are investigated more secure property rights and removal of restrictions on land markets have the potential to create both efficiency and equity benefits but there are high risks of elite capture of large land areas with inefficient and inequitable outcomes this situation is the case not only in land abundant areas but also in urban and peri urban areas where increasingly larger proportions of people will make their living increasing population pressure in densely populated rural areas contributes to more rapid rural urban migration and creating alternative livelihood opportunities for the migrating youth population is essential to achieving economic development with social stability

population pressures migration and the returns to human capital and land insights from indonesia rapid population growth in many developing countries has raised concerns regarding food security and household welfare to understand the consequences of population growth in a general equilibrium setting this paper examines the dynamics of population density and its impacts on household outcomes the analysis uses panel data from indonesia combined with district level demographic data historically indonesia has adapted to land constraints through a mix of agricultural intensification expansion of the land frontier and nonfarm diversification with public policies playing a role in catalyzing all of these responses in contemporary indonesia the paper finds that human capital determines the effect of increased population density on per capita household consumption expenditure on the one hand the effect of population density is positive if the average educational attainment is high above junior high school while it is negative otherwise on the other hand farmers with larger holdings maintain their advantage in farming regardless of population density the paper concludes with some potential lessons for african countries from indonesia s more successful rural development experiences

rising real wages mechanization and growing advantage of large farms evidence from indonesia this paper examines dynamic patterns of land use capital investments and wages in agriculture using farm panel data from indonesia the empirical analysis shows that with an increase in real wages that prevailed in both agricultural and non agricultural sectors in rural areas relatively larger farmers increased the size of operational farm land by renting in land as well as used more hired in machines through machine rental and or service providers which induces the substitution of labor by machines machines and land are complementary and consistently the inverse farm size productivity relationship tends to be reversed among relatively large holders the results support growing diminishing advantage of large small farms in the presence of rapidly rising real wages and have food security policy implications to many asian countries where real wages are rapidly rising and small farms are predominant

characteristics and performance of resettlement programs a review abstract this review suggests that settlement programs are too often designed with the assumption that all settlers will succeed this has led to centralized administration and rigid designs rather than decentralized approaches flexibility in implementation support for spontaneous settlement and reliance on settlers own investment capacity collective farms have failed cropland is best allocated to individual families and their land rights must be clearly defined as ownership or long term leases farm sizes have to be flexibly adjusted to skills availability of family labor and the capital assets of the families settlers should therefore be allowed to sell or rent their land to other beneficiaries if poor settlers are to succeed settlement cannot be based solely on credit finance and provision must be made for grant elements paternalistic constraints on crop choice technology marketing or labor market participation have usually not been enforceable or have had adverse effects

land tenure and investment incentives evidence from west africa abstract the existing literature on the relationship between property rights in land and agricultural investment in africa has given results that are often confusing and contradictory i make two clarifying contributions to this literature first i pull together existing studies and investigate whether the results they find have been affected by research methods or local contexts studies with small sample sizes those that use binary investment measures and those that control for household fixed effects are less likely to find a statistically significant link between land tenure and investment self reported tenure security has been a poor predictor of investment outcomes second i test for a relationship between land tenure and agricultural investment in nine data sets from west africa while the link between tenure and investment is significant for fallow and tree planting it is less robust for labor use and other inputs such as manure or chemical fertilizer

impact of organizational structure on oligopolistic pricing abstract the main point of this paper is to suggest that to maintain price discipline certain organizational and historical features of an industry s information set need to be maintained in particular the place of the pricing decision in the organizational structure of firms is a critical determinant of the equilibrium price level in oligopolistic industries offering products that are commodities the model identifies the dynamics of oligopolistic pricing with price discipline breaking down as a result of intensified non price competition and decentralization of the pricing decision examples from the steel nuclear turbine airline and the telecommunication industries provide some empirical support for the model the analysis integrates industrial organization theory and the behavioral theory of the firm in fact the one thing that his decentralization in early 1988 had accomplished was that it gave the sales force more freedom to interpret orders such as akers s 1989 edict that losing market share would no longer be tolerated salesmen now had much of the control over pricing that had previously been reserved for senior management and they realized even if akers didn t that competitors products were now so similar to ibm s that the only weapon ibm could use to stop market share losses was lower prices the salesmen used their weapon they began a price war that gave customers discounts as high as 50 percent and that eventually rendered list prices meaningless buying a mainframe started to include as much wheeling and dealing as buying a used car in paul carrll s big blues the unmaking of ibm page 221

the geographic and sectoral patterns of large scale farmland investments in sub saharan africa following the food and energy price crises of the mid 2000s sub saharan africa has become one of the largest recipients for large scale farmland investments while much has been written on the phenomenon scant reliable empirical evidence is available as to the precise geographic and sectoral patterns and underlying drivers employing strict data quality requirements this paper addresses these knowledge gaps by analyzing 563 farmland projects that have been established between 2005 and 2013 in sub saharan africa findings show that the investment intensity and associated risks are not geographically uniform moreover the study highlights a number of popular misconceptions regarding investor origin and their sectoral interests and motives

land pressures the evolution of farming systems and development strategies in africa a synthesis abstract evidence assembled in this special issue of food policy shows that rising rural population densities in parts of africa are profoundly affecting farming systems and the region s economies in ways that are underappreciated in current discourse on african development issues this study synthesizes how people markets and governments are responding to rising land pressures in africa drawing on key findings from the various contributions in this special issue the papers herein revisit the issue of boserupian agricultural intensification as an important response to land constraints but they also go further than boserup and her followers to explore broader responses to land constraints including non farm diversification migration and reduced fertility rates agricultural and rural development strategies in the region will need to more fully anticipate the implications of africa s rapidly changing land and demographic situation and the immense challenges that mounting land pressures pose in the context of current evidence of unsustainable agricultural intensification a rapidly rising labor force associated with the region s current demographic conditions and limited nonfarm job creation these challenges are manageable but will require explicit policy actions to address the unique development challenges in densely populated rural areas

breaking ground unearthing the potential of high resolution remote sensing soil data in understanding agricultural profits and technology use in sub saharan africa summary there is a growing interest in how land degradation affects the welfare of the rural poor especially where environmental conditions continue to worsen and the future of ecosystem health remains uncertain nowhere is this more important than in sub saharan africa where rural poverty remains high and pressure on natural resources continues to build at the same time generating more agricultural profits on this land remains crucial to reducing poverty this research asks how changing land quality as measured by soil organic carbon soc content affects agricultural profitability and agricultural technology adoption for poor farmers in tanzania it is the first to match high resolution remote sensing soil data to nationally representative household plot surveys using the world bank s living standards measurement study and world agroforestry centre s land degradation surveillance framework we employ a household fixed effects model that isolates soc contributions to plot level agricultural profits finding positive changes of 7 8 per acre per year for each gram per kilogram change in soc with higher sensitivity to soc differences for farmers with worse quality land soc and fertilizer use also exhibit a positive synergistic interaction with plot level agricultural profits despite this however we find that soc levels do not factor into fertilizer adoption decisions and land quality has a smaller role in how farmers assign value to their land compared to how it contributes to profits partly because of a lack of matched high resolution and nationally representative environmental and socioeconomic data researchers and policymakers typically have not been able to include land quality as a primary dimension on which to analyze agricultural profitability and technology use in sub saharan africa we conclude that this should be a major factor in both targeting rural development and environmental policies and understanding impacts of long run land health declines on the world s poor

devising renewable heat policy overview of support options renewable energy sources of heat offer the substantial economic environmental and social benefits associated with renewable electricity but policy to support their expansion is considerably less advanced the potential for applying various support instruments to renewable heat is considered with advantages and disadvantages discussed c 2012 published by elsevier ltd

quantifying spillover effects from large land based investment the case of mozambique summary almost a decade after a spike in land demand following the 2007 08 commodity boom evidence on impacts of this phenomenon remains limited and mostly case study based we show that information on location and start data of large farms combined with existing smallholder farm surveys allows to complement this with a difference in difference approach to systematically assess spillovers from large farm establishment illustrative application to mozambique suggests positive short term effects from newly established large farms on adoption of agricultural practices and input use by small farms less than 50 km from newly established large operations robustness checks for crop farms only also suggest job creation in the proximity of newly established crop but not livestock farms yet large farm establishment decreased perceived well being within a 25 km band and in the time horizon considered here did not lead to better access to output markets cultivation of larger areas or once other factors are controlled for higher yields this allows us to reject the notion of negative spillovers from large farm establishment but casts doubt on the wisdom of large unconditional subsidies to attract investors in addition to drawing policy conclusions for mozambique we highlight the methodology s wider applicability and scope for expansion

uk innovation systems for new and renewable energy technologies drivers barriers and systems failures abstract a better understanding of the systemic processes by which innovation occurs is useful both conceptually and to inform policy making in support of innovation in more sustainable technologies this paper analyses current innovation systems in the uk for a range of new and renewable energy technologies and generates policy recommendations for improving the effectiveness of these innovation systems although incentives are in place in the uk to encourage innovation in these technologies system failures or gaps are identified in moving technologies along the innovation chain preventing their successful commercialisation sustained investment will be needed for these technologies to achieve their potential it is argued that a stable and consistent policy framework is required to help create the conditions for this in particular such a framework should be aimed at improving risk reward ratios for demonstration and pre commercial stage technologies this would enhance positive expectations stimulate learning effects leading to cost reductions and increase the likelihood of successful commercialisation