asymmetric persistence in gdp a deeper look at depth abstract if an economic time series behaves asymmetrically then an interpretation of economic fluctuations based on linear time series models could be misleading beaudry and koop 1993 recently argued that for post war us gdp data there exists a statistically significant difference in persistence between negative and positive shocks we demonstrate that their test has two pitfalls first the t statistic for testing asymmetry in persistence does not have a conventional interpretation second a highly significant t value may come from sources different from asymmetry using international data we investigate for the presence of asymmetric persistence across the g 7 countries

tracking the new economy using growth theory to detect changes in trend productivity abstract the acceleration of productivity after 1995 prompted a debate over whether the economy s underlying growth rate would remain high in this paper we draw on growth theory to identify variables other than productivity namely consumption and labor compensation to help estimate trend productivity growth we treat that trend as a common factor with two regimes high and low growth our analysis picks up striking evidence of a return in 1997 to the high growth regime nearly 25 years after a switch from high to low growth we find that both the common factor and regime switching aspects of the model are important for identifying changes in trend productivity and also show that the trend breaks are more difficult to detect with per capita as opposed to per hour based data because of persistent labor supply shifts finally we argue that our methodology is effective in detecting changes in trend in real time in the case of the 1990s the methodology would have signaled the regime switch by 1999 or within roughly six quarters of when it occurred according to the full sample

efficiency and information aggregation in large uniform price auctions abstract we prove that the equilibria of a large interdependent value uniform price auction model where bidders have arbitrary preferences for multiple units can be approximated by a nonatomic exchange economy we show that the uniform price auction is approximately efficient with a large number of participants and asymptotically aggregates idiosyncratic bidder information into the market price more generally our analysis framework provides conditions justifying the use of nonatomic limit model approximations to analyze the large market behavior of game theoretic models we demonstrate continuity requirements on the economic primitives sufficient for the equilibrium strategies of the two models to converge as the number of participants in the finite game approaches infinity

the propagation of regional recessions this paper develops a framework for inferring common markov switching components in a panel data set with large cross section and time series dimensions we apply the framework to studying similarities and dierences across u s states in the timing of business cycles we hypothesize that there exists a small number of cluster designations with individual states in a given cluster sharing certain business cycle characteristics we nd that although oil producing and agricultural states can sometimes experience a separate recession from the rest of the united states for the most part dierences across states appear to be a matter of timing with some states entering recession or recovering before others jel c11 c32 e32

friedman s plucking model of business fluctuations tests and estimates of permanent and transitory components in milton friedman s model output cannot exceed a ceiling level but occasionally is plucked downward by recession implying fluctuations are asymmetric recessions transitory and recessions duration dependent though expansions are not the empirical literature lends support but formal modeling has been absent the econometric model presented here encompasses both plucking and symmetric fluctuations around a stochastic trend we find gdp is well characterized by the plucking model implied recessions correspond to nber reference cycles and no role for symmetric cycles decomposition of the unemployment rate reveals a corresponding asymmetry and timing paths of ceiling output and trend unemployment are presented

econometric issues in hedonic price indices the case of internet service providers researchers in hedonic studies frequently encounter the problems of the choice of functional forms the use of pooled regression using time dummies vs period to period regression and the unit of measurement of the product this article examines these issues through the study of internet service providers in canada from 1993 to 2000 a series of tests are employed to evaluate the best procedure we find that the commonly used log linear equation with period to period regression and hourly rate charged gives a robust result compared with the more flexible translog function the quality adjusted price index declines at about 15 per year

mean field equilibria of dynamic auctions with learning we study learning in a dynamic setting where identical copies of a good are sold over time through a sequence of second price auctions each agent in the market has an unknown independent private valuation that determines the distribution of the reward she obtains from the good for example in sponsored search settings advertisers may initially be unsure of the value of a click though the induced dynamic game is complex we simplify analysis of the market using an approximation methodology known as mean field equilibrium mfe the methodology assumes that agents optimize only with respect to long run average estimates of the distribution of other players bids we show a remarkable fact in a mean field equilibrium the agent has an optimal strategy where she bids truthfully according to a conjoint valuation the conjoint valuation is the sum of her current expected valuation together with an overbid amount that is exactly the expected marginal benefit of one additional observation about her true pri

internet advertising and the generalized second price auction selling billions of dollars worth of keywords we investigate the generalized second price gsp auction a new mechanism used by search engines to sell online advertising although gsp looks similar to the vickrey clarke groves vcg mechanism its properties are very different unlike the vcg mechanism gsp generally does not have an equilibrium in dominant strategies and truth telling is not an equilibrium of gsp to analyze the properties of gsp we describe the generalized english auction that corresponds to gsp and show that it has a unique equilibrium this is an ex post equilibrium with the same payoffs to all players as the dominant strategy equilibrium of vcg

what drives unemployment disparities in european regions a dynamic spatial panel approach abstractwhat drives unemployment disparities in european regions a dynamic spatial panel approach regional studies this study analyzes unemployment differentials in european regions during the period 2000 11 to that end a theoretical model with substantive spatial interactions among regions is developed the solution implies a dynamic spatial durbin model specification including regional and institutional level factors as explanatory variables in conjunction with dynamic spatial panel estimates relative importance metrics are used to quantify the effect of regional disequilibrium equilibrium and national level factors relative importance analysis suggests that during the pre crisis period unemployment disparities were mainly driven by regional level equilibrium factors nevertheless labour market institutions are of major importance to explain increasing disparities during 2009 11

online ad auctions i describe how search engines sell ad space using an auction i analyze advertiser behavior in this context using elementary price theory and derive a simple way to estimate the producer surplus generated by online search advertising it appears that the estimated value of online advertising tends to be between 2 and 2 3 times advertising expenditures jel d44 auctions d21 firm behavior

a floor and ceiling model of us output abstract building on previous nonlinear time series models we further examine the form of nonlinearity in us output we develop a model of us output that allows for floor and ceiling effects to alter the dynamics of output growth the model estimated on post korean war quarterly data displays features similar to nonlinear trade cycle models of the 1940s and 1950s thus as predicted by many of the earlier theoretical models our empirical results suggest that the turning points of the business cycle provide new initial conditions for the ensuing growth process we also find important asymmetries in the responses of output to positive and negative shocks this history and shock dependence property is not present in linear or approximately linear models of the type that arise in the standard implementations of real business cycle theory

business cycle non linearities in uk consumption and production this paper develops non linear smooth transition autoregressive star models with two additive smooth transition components to capture the business cycle characteristics of uk real consumers expenditure and industrial production the results indicate consumption has essentially two business cycle regimes recession and expansion industrial production however is characterized by the three regimes of recession normal growth and high growth the transitions describing recovery from recession are very similar for the two variables stochastic simulations illustrate the dynamic responses of these models and emphasize that they are locally linear our results also indicate that the two transition star models have some forecast advantages over other specifications for periods of contraction copyright 2000 john wiley sons ltd

do minimum wage hikes raise us long term unemployment evidence using state minimum wage rates partridge m d and partridge j s 1999 do minimum wage hikes raise us long term unemployment evidence using state minimum wage rates reg studies 33 713 726 several recent studies have challenged the conventional notion that raising the minimum wage reduces employment this study considers a related but relatively unexplored issue by examining the minimum wage s influence on long durations of unemployment by considering long term unemployment rates this study extends the previous minimum wage literature by examining the persistence of minimum wage effects the empirical analysis considers state data from the latter 1980s a unique period when many states raised their minimum wage above the federal level the results suggest that a greater minimum wage increases long term unemployment rates further evidence indicates that increased minimum wage coverage also raises long term unemployment rates subsequent analysis yielded similar patterns for other aggregate labour market measures thus state

the impact of the potential duration of unemployment benefits on the duration of unemployment abstract this paper examines the impact of the potential duration of unemployment insurance ui benefits on unemployment in the united states first we use a large sample of household heads to examine differences in the unemployment spell distributions of ui recipients and nonrecipients sharp increases in the escape rate from unemployment both through recalls and new job acceptances are apparent for ui recipients around the time of benefits exhaustion such increases are not apparent at similar points of spell duration for nonrecipients second our analysis of accurate administrative data from 12 states indicates that a one week increase in potential benefit duration increases the average duration of the unemployment spells of ui recipients by 0 16 to 0 20 weeks

hedonic price indexes for residential housing a survey evaluation and taxonomy every house is different it is important that house price indexes take account of these quality differences hedonic methods which express house prices as a function of a vector of characteristics such as number of bedrooms and bathrooms land area and location are particularly useful for this purpose i consider here some developments in the hedonic methodology as it is applied in a housing context that have occurred in the last three decades a number of hedonic house price indexes are now available however it is often difficult to see how these indexes relate to each other for this reason i attempt to impose some structure on the literature by developing a taxonomy of hedonic indexes and then show how existing indexes fit into this taxonomy also discussed are some promising areas for future research in the hedonic field in particular greater use needs to be made of spatial econometric and nonparametric methods to exploit the increased availability of geospatial data the main criticisms of the hedonic approach are evaluated and compared with those of the repeat sales and stratified median methods the overall conclusion is that the advantages of the hedonic approach outweigh its disadvantages

markov switching stochastic trends and economic fluctuations abstract i investigate cointegrating relationships such that even though the long run attractors are assumed to be linear the dynamics of the equilibrium errors depends on the business cycle i postulate a markov switching common stochastic trends model to study both the short run responses to permanent shocks and the effects of recessions in the long run growth i apply these findings to explore the short and long run asymmetric relationships among output consumption and investment

a decision support framework for evaluating revenue performance in sequential purchase contexts abstract this paper studies the product ordering problem in sequential purchase contexts where sellers aim to maximize their revenue faced with budget constrained buyers we propose a multi layered decision support framework that combines empirical data with simulation optimization and econometric methods to address this problem our framework allows sellers to i compare revenue performances of limited information sequencing strategies ii quantify benchmark revenue levels that can be achieved via the optimal sequence based on detailed buyer information iii determine the costs of limited information and strategic buyers to the seller and iv identify the moderators of sequencing strategy performance we illustrate our framework through two applications in a business to business used car auction setting contrary to previous studies reporting practitioners tendency to sequence items from the lowest value to the highest our results suggest that the best performing limited information sequencing strategy depends on buyers bidding behavior we also find that the revenue difference between the optimal sequence and a limited information sequencing strategy can be substantial our results show that a significant portion of this revenue difference is associated with the seller s limited information on buyers budgets and product valuations our applications also provide various sensitivity analyses and develop new propositions on the moderators of the relationship between the seller s revenue and sequencing strategies

state budget stabilization fund adoption preparing for the next recession or circumventing fiscal constraints the high rate of budget stabilization fund adoption during the 1980s is often attributed to the 1980 1982 recession in this view states adopted funds to prevent a recurrence of the fiscal crises experienced during that recession an alternative hypothesis is that some funds adopted during this period were intended to circumvent tax and expenditure limit laws we find that states with tels in place were significantly more likely to adopt statutory funds but were significantly less likely to adopt funds with stringent deposit and withdrawal rules suggesting that some funds were adopted to circumvent existing fiscal constraints

a learning approach to auctions we analyze a repeated first price auction in which the types of the players are determined before the first round it is proved that if every player is using either a belief based learning scheme with bounded recall or a generalized fictitious play learning scheme then for sufficiently large time the players bids are in equilibrium in the one shot auction in which the types are commonly known

an application of a stated preference method to value urban amenities this is a case study analysis of how residents value the amenities of a small us city missoula montana a measure of a community s amenity values is needed in city planning so as to protect those

identification results for duration models with multiple spells the purpose of this paper is to investigate the identifiability of duration models with multiple spells we prove that the results of elbers and ridder 1982 and heckman and singer 1984 can be generalized to multi spell models with lagged duration dependence we also prove that without lagged duration dependence the identification result does not depend on moment conditions or tail conditions on the mixing distribution this result is in contrast to ridder s 1990 result for single spell models

the treatment of quality in the cost of living index abstract this paper develops the implications of cost of living index theory for measuring the impact of changes in the availability and prices of goods on a household s welfare it considers both the goods approach which treats each variety as a separate entity and two characteristics approaches l characteristics and h characteristics l characteristics are lancaster s linear and additive specification h characteristics are houthakker s heterogeneous specification in which the household consumes only a single variety of each product the paper concludes by discussing the implications of the theory for actual index number construction and relating it to the literature on quality and hedonic indexes

do large recessions reduce output permanently the slow recovery following the 2008 2009 recession has led to renewed interest in the question whether deep recessions lower real gdp permanently or whether we can expect a rebound to earlier trend levels using a recent quantile autoregression unit root test we check whether shocks to real gdp have permanent or temporary effects in contrast to earlier studies this approach takes into account that the transmission of a shock might depend on the sign and the size of the shock large recessionary shocks might have a different effect than smaller recessionary or expansionary shocks we do not only test the unit root hypothesis at the conditional mean of gdp but also in the tails of the distribution where the lower tail corresponds to large recessions the test has more power than conventional unit root tests we find that positive and negative shocks including large recessionary shocks have permanent effects on output therefore a rebound of gdp to its pre crisis trend level is unlikely current output gap estimates based on deterministic trends are likely to be too negative and inflation forecasts based on these are likely to be too low

markov switching models and the unit root hypothesis in real us gdp abstract i find that real us gdp is better characterized as a trend stationary markov switching process than as having a regime dependent unit root i examine the effects of both assumptions on the analysis of business cycle features and their implications for the persistence of the dynamic response of output to a random disturbance

is there a quality bias in the canadian cpi evidence from micro data rising consumer prices may reflect shifts by consumers to new higher priced products mostly for durable and semi durable goods i apply bils 2009 methodology to newly available canadian consumer price data for non shelter goods and services to estimate how price increases can be divided between quality growth and price inflation

mechanism design by competing sellers a dynamic model with many sellers and buyers is constructed agents failing to trade may trade in the next period an equilibrium is found where sellers hold identical auctions and buyers randomize over the sellers they visit the distribution of buyer valuations is endogenous an auction with efficient reserve is an optimal mechanism from each seller s point of view in spite of the ability of any seller to alter the distribution of buyer types participating in the seller s mechanism by altering the mechanism copyright 1993 by the econometric society

dissecting the cycle a methodological investigation following burns and mitchell we define the cycle as a pattern in the level of aggregate economic activity an algorithm to locate turning points is developed as is a new measure of pro cyclicality a link between turning points and the moments of the series is established thereby providing the statistical foundation that burns and mitchell s work lacked using these tools we are able to dissect cycles in terms of the contributions made by trend growth volatility serial correlation and non linear effects we dissect several models and find little evidence that certain non linear effects are important to the nature of business cycles

an efficient dynamic mechanism this paper constructs an efficient budget balanced bayesian incentive compatible mechanism for a general dynamic environment with quasilinear payoffs in which agents observe private information and decisions are made over countably many periods first under the assumption of private values other agents private information does not directly affect an agent s payoffs we construct an efficient ex post incentive compatible mechanism which is not budget balanced second under the assumption of independent types the distribution of each agent s private information is not directly affected by other agents private information we show how the budget can be balanced without compromising agents incentives finally we show that the mechanism can be made self enforcing when agents are sufficiently patient and the induced stochastic process over types is an ergodic finite markov chain publication abstract

mean field equilibrium in dynamic games with strategic complementarities we study a class of stochastic dynamic games that exhibit strategic complementarities between players formally in the games we consider the payoff of a player has increasing differences between her own state and the empirical distribution of the states of other players such games can be used to model a diverse set of applications including network security models recommender systems and dynamic search in markets stochastic games are generally difficult to analyze and these difficulties are only exacerbated when the number of players is large as might be the case in the preceding examples we consider an approximation methodology called mean field equilibrium to study these games in such an equilibrium each player reacts to only the long run average state of other players we find necessary conditions for the existence of a mean field equilibrium in such games furthermore as a simple consequence of this existence theorem we obtain several natural monotonicity properties we show that there exist a largest and a smallest equilibrium among all those where the equilibrium strategy used by a player is nondecreasing and we also show that players converge to each of these equilibria via natural myopic learning dynamics as we argue these dynamics are more reasonable than the standard best response dynamics we also provide sensitivity results where we quantify how the equilibria of such games move in response to changes in parameters of the game for example the introduction of incentives to players

the dispersion of us state unemployment rates the role of market and non market equilibrium factors partridge m d and rickman d s 1997 the dispersion of us state unemployment rates the role of market and nonmarket equilibrium factors reg studies 31 593 607 european nations particularly the uk have been observed to have persistent dispersion in regional unemployment rates the dispersion is often hypothesized to be caused by centralized collective bargaining and government policies that limit regional labour market adjustments although the us labour market is considered more exible possessing higher rates of labour mobility and less government mandates there also is persistent dispersion in us state unemployment rates this paper investigates the factors that underlie the persistent dispersion in us state unemployment rates the factors examined include amenities crime education home ownership and residency patterns industry composition and international migration partridge m d et rickman d s 1997 la dispersion des taux de chomage aux etats unis sur le plan des etats l importa

regional unemployment in poland rural urban contrasts unemployment continues to bedevil poland albeit with striking sub national differences which this article seeks to explain using random effects error component two stage estimation for the country s nuts 4 nomenclature des unites territoriales statistiques level powiats given the economy s peculiar configuration under communism with its large private agricultural sector emphasis is placed on rural urban differences while less densely populated areas do suffer higher unemployment rates the effect is moderated by hidden unemployment in farming on the other hand powiats that housed the ex state farms suffer a negative long term legacy other notable results include an evident positive impact of foreign capital on local labour market fortunes

houses and or jobs ownership and the labour market in belgian districts isebaert d heylen f and smolders c houses and or jobs ownership and the labour market in belgian districts regional studies a j oswald argues that high rates of homeownership may imply inferior labour market outcomes using a panel of forty two belgian districts since the 1970s and accounting for other key determinants of employment this paper confirms the oswald hypothesis a 1 percentage point rise in the rate of ownership in a district implies a statistically significant fall in the employment rate by about 0 35 percentage points this negative effect declines in the fraction of the high skilled in a district the results underscore the importance of controlling for unobserved district specific fixed effects and common time effects and of appropriately dealing with endogeneity

measuring and predicting heterogeneous recessions this paper examines the usefulness of a more refined business cycle classification for monthly industrial production ip beyond the usual distinction between expansions and contractions univariate markov switching models show that a three regime model is more appropriate than a model with only two regimes interestingly the third regime captures severe recessions contrasting the conventional view that the additional third regime represents a recovery phase this is confirmed by means of markov switching vector autoregressive models that allow for phase shifts between the cyclical regimes of ip and the conference board s leading economic index lei the timing of the severe recession regime mostly corresponds with periods of substantial financial market distress and severe credit squeezes providing empirical evidence for the financial accelerator theory

do recessions permanently change output abstract this paper examines whether negative innovations to gnp are more or less persistent than positive innovations we find that once we allow for the impulse response of gnp to be asymmetric negative innovations to gnp are observed to be much less persistent than positive ones in particular the effect of a recession on the forecast of output is found to be negligible after only eight to twelve quarters while the effect of a positive shock is estimated to be persistent and amplified over time our results may therefore help reconcile two antagonistic views about the nature of business cycle fluctuations

inventories and the three phases of the business cycle this article demonstrates that recessions typically are followed by high growth recovery phases that push output back to its prerecession level thus postwar fluctuations in real output in the united states have consisted of three sequential phases rather than two contractions high growth recoveries and moderate growth periods following recoveries data from before world war ii also exhibit this pattern for the postwar period the three phase pattern is shown to reflect swings in inventory investment and suggests that output fluctuations have an important transitory component the evidence in this article supports delong and summers s output gaps view and friedman s plucking model view of fluctuations

asymmetry in business fluctuations international evidence on friedman s plucking model abstract friedman s plucking model of business fluctuations suggests that output cannot exceed a ceiling level and it is occasionally plucked downward by recession output has depth and steepness this study uses a sample of 12 industrial and emerging economies and finds some evidence that negative shocks are largely transitory while positive shocks are mostly permanent in a few cases as implied by the plucking model output fluctuations tend to be asymmetric recessions are transitory and duration dependent although expansions are not there is however serial correlation in almost all cases international evidence on friedman s plucking model is far from robust

this is what happened to the oil price macroeconomy relationship abstract many of the quarterly oil price increases observed since 1985 are corrections to even bigger oil price decreases the previous quarter when one looks at the net increase in oil prices over the year recent data are consistent with the historical correlation between oil shocks and recessions

competition among sellers who offer auctions instead of prices abstract in this paper we study a large market in which sellers compete by offering auctions to buyers instead of simple fixed price contracts two variants of the model are studied one extends a model first analyzed by wolinsky rev econ stud 55 1988 71 84 in which buyers learn their valuations only after meeting sellers the other variant extends the model of mcafee econometrica61 1993 1281 1312 in which buyers know their valuations before they choose among available auctions the equilibrium array of auctions is characterized for each case and the efficiency properties of the equilibria are analyzed journal of economic literatureclassification numbers d41 d44 d82

unit root tests persistence and the unemployment rate of the u s states author affiliation diego romero avila department of economics carretera de utrera km 1 pablo de olavide university 41013 seville spain dromtor upo escarlos usabiaga professor department of economics carretera de utrera km 1 pablo de olavide university 41013 seville spain cusaiba upo es corresponding author acknowledgment the authors would like to thank seminar participants at the pablo de olavide university and dg economics at the european central bank carlos usabiaga acknowledges the financial support from centro de estudios andaluces ecod1 05 033 special thanks go to junsoo lee and nikolay gospodinov for making available to us the codes to implement some of the techniques used in the paper and to two anonymous referees for suggestions that substantially improved the paper the usual disclaimer applies 1 introductionthe high persistence in unemployment rates observed in the developed world since the first oil shock has led to a vivid debate over which paradigm can better explain the behavior of unemployment rates the traditional strand of the literature that forms the basis of the natural rate theory phelps 1967 1968 friedman 1968 assumes that the unemployment rate evolves around an equilibrium level describing stationary fluctuations this equilibrium level or natural rate is set depending on fundamentals of the economy while initially the absence of theories explaining the determination of the natural rate meant that in practice it was taken to be constant and exogenous subsequent developments have attempted to identify the structural factors behind differences across economies and over time including labor productivity technological change real interest rates real exchange rates and energy prices to name a few see phelps 1994 phelps and zoega 1998 according to the structuralist view phelps 1994 most shocks to unemployment are temporary but occasionally the natural rate permanently changes and is affected by variations in the aforementioned structural factors as a consequence the unemployment rate may be characterized as a process that is stationary once a small number of structural breaks are allowed for in contrast to the natural rate and structuralist approaches the hysteresis hypothesis see blanchard and summers 1986 1987 implies that the unemployment rate is path dependent and temporary shocks can affect unemployment permanently 1 while hysteresis is thought to imply that the natural rate is conditioned by the level of unemployment recorded in the past persistence in unemployment which is a special case of the natural rate hypothesis entails a slow adjustment process of reversion toward the mean thus hysteresis implies that unemployment is characterized by a unit root while persistence is characterized by a near unit root in the latter case shocks to unemployment though long lasting would not have a permanent effect to discriminate among theories explaining the behavior of unemployment rates unit root tests have been widely applied the hysteresis hypothesis has been formulated as a unit root process and its rejection lends support to the natural rate hypothesis if no breaks are included in the specification and the structuralist hypothesis if breaks are allowed for the purpose of this article is to investigate which theoretical paradigm most closely represents the behavior of unemployment rates in the states of the united states over the period 1976 2004 we first apply the individual lagrange multiplier lm t statistic proposed by schmidt and phillips 1992 to monthly data and we fail to reject the null hypothesis of a unit root in unemployment for forty states perron 1989 pointed out that the presence of structural changes could favor the nonrejection of the unit root null if they are not properly accounted for therefore we employ the minimum lm t statistic allowing for up to two endogenous changes in level proposed by lee and strazicich 2003

a model of carbon price interactions with macroeconomic and energy dynamics abstract this paper develops a model of carbon pricing by considering two fundamental drivers of european union allowances economic activity and energy prices on the one hand economic activity is proxied by aggregated industrial production in the eu 27 as it provides the best performance in a preliminary forecasting exercise vs other indicators on the other hand brent natural gas and coal prices are selected as being the main carbon price drivers as highlighted by previous literature the interactions between the macroeconomic and energy spheres are captured in a markov switching var model with two states that is able to reproduce the boom bust business cycle hamilton 1989 first industrial production is found to impact positively negatively the carbon market during periods of economic expansion recession thereby confirming the existence of a link between the macroeconomy and the price of carbon second the brent price is confirmed to be the leader in price formation among energy markets bachmeier and griffin 2006 as it impacts other variables through the structure of the markov switching model taken together these results uncover new interactions between the recently created eu emissions market and the pre existing macroeconomic energy environment

markov switching models with evolving regime specific parameters are postwar booms or recessions all alike abstract in this paper we relax the assumption of constant regime specific mean growth rates in hamilton s 1989 two state markov switching model of the business cycle we introduce a random walk hierarchy prior for each regime specific mean growth rate and impose a cointegrating relationship between the mean growth rates in recessionary and expansionary periods by applying the proposed model to postwar u s real gdp growth 1947 q4 2011 q3 we uncover the evolving nature of the regime specific mean growth rates of real output in the u s business cycle additional features of the postwar u s business cycle that we uncover include a steady decline in the long run mean growth rate of real output over the postwar sample and an asymmetric error correction mechanism when the economy deviates from its long run equilibrium

the asymmetric business cycle abstract the business cycle is a fundamental yet elusive concept in macroeconomics in this paper we consider the problem of measuring the business cycle first we argue for the output gap view that the business cycle corresponds to transitory deviations in economic activity away from a permanent or trend level then we investigate the extent to which a general model based approach to estimating trend and cycle for the u s economy leads to measures of the business cycle that reflect models versus the data we find empirical support for a nonlinear time series model that produces a business cycle measure with an asymmetric shape across nber expansion and recession phases specifically this business cycle measure suggests that recessions are periods of relatively large and negative transitory fluctuations in output however several close competitors to the nonlinear model produce business cycle measures of widely differing shapes and magnitudes given this model based uncertainty we construct a mode

dynamic markets with competitive bidding the model features a dynamic market in steady state in which prices are determined in first price auctions it combines competition over time familiar from the pairwise meeting models with instantaneous bidding competition it inquires how different properties of the model determine the relative importance of these two aspects of the competition and in particular how the non market clearing price result of the matching and bargaining models is affected by the

college assignment as a large contest abstract we develop a model of college assignment as a large contest wherein students with heterogeneous learning costs compete for seats at vertically differentiated colleges through the acquisition of productive human capital we use a continuum model to approximate the outcomes of a game with large but finite sets of colleges and students the continuum approximation lends tractability to a rich model for studying investment incentives in rank order competitions by incorporating two common families of affirmative action mechanisms into our model admissions preferences and quotas we can show that legal admissions preference schemes and illegal quotas have the same sets of equilibria including identical outcomes and investment strategies

the plucking model of business fluctuations revisited the recent surge of renewed interest in business cycles in general and real business cycles in particular brought to mind a plucking model of business fluctuations that i suggested some twenty five years ago but that has since sunk into complete oblivion 1 i was led to the model in the course of investigating the direction of influence between money and income did the common cyclical fluctuations in money and income reflect primarily the influence of money on income or of income on money one of the five kinds of evidence that i examined was the serial correlation of amplitudes of cycle phases 2 as i wrote is the magnitude of an expansion related systematically to the magnitude of the succeeding contraction does a boom tend on the average to be followed by a large contraction p 271 to find out i calculated rank difference correlations between measures of the amplitudes of expansions and successive contractions in three different series for the period 1879 to 1961 the three series were rate of change of the stock of money a physical index of general business and clearing debits as an indicator of dollar value change in general business similarly i asked the same question except starting with a contraction in the given series and correlating its amplitude with the amplitude of the succeeding expansion 3 the results were striking for all three series the correlation was trivial between the amplitude of an expansion and the amplitude of the succeeding contraction on the other hand for both the rate of change of the money stock and the physical index of general business the correlation was high and statistically significant between the amplitude of a contraction and the amplitude of the succeeding expansion for clearing debits this correlation too was low i concluded there appears to be no systematic connection between the size of an expansion and of the succeeding contraction whether size is measured by physical volume or by dollar value pp 272 73 on the other hand a large contraction in output tends to be followed on the average by a large business expansion a mild contraction by a mild expansion p 273 though that is not so for the dollar value of the expansion and contraction i went on this phenomenon if it should be confirmed by a fuller analysis of data for the united states and other countries would have important implications for the analysis of business cycles in general not solely for our monetary studies for one thing it would cast grave doubt on those theories that see as the source of a deep depression the excesses of the prior expansion the mises cycle theory is a clear example 4 for another it would raise serious questions about both the analytical models in terms of which most of us have come to approach the analysis of cycles and the statistical methods we use to analyze them our analytical models generally involve a conception of a self generating cycle in which each phase gives rise to the next and which may be kept going by a sequence of random shocks each giving rise to a series of damped perturbations the corresponding physical analogy is of an electrical network in which responses are described by sine waves the asymmetric serial correlation patter suggests that this analogy may be misleading that a better one is what can be termed a plucking model consider an elastic string stretched taut between two points on the underside of a rigid horizontal board and glued lightly to the board let the string be plucked at a number of points chosen more or less at random with a force that varies at random and then held down at the lowest point reached the result will be to produce a succession of apparent cycles in the string whose amplitudes depend on the force used in plucking the string the cycles are symmetrical about their troughs each contraction is of the same amplitude as the succeeding expansion

the social and private micro level consequences of homeownership abstract this paper reviews the literature that describes the micro level economic and social consequences of homeownership we adopt an interdisciplinary approach and include studies from economics sociology geography political science psychology and other disciplines our focus is on the set of consequences of homeownership in developed countries our list of potential outcomes of homeownership includes the impact on household wealth and portfolio choice mobility labor force participation urban structure and segregation home maintenance political and social activities health demographics self esteem and child outcomes there is substantial evidence that homeownership has important effects on some household behaviors and outcomes however we find that much of the past 30 year s literature on consequences of homeowning is deficient from a theoretical or econometric perspective we suggest solutions and identify research gaps present in the literature

business cycle phases in u s states the u s aggregate business cycle is often characterized as a series of distinct recession and expansion phases we apply a regime switching model to state level coincident indices to characterize state business cycles in this way we find that states differ a great deal in the levels of growth that they experience in the two phases recession growth rates are related to industry mix whereas expansion growth rates are related to education and age composition further states differ significantly in the timing of switches between regimes indicating large differences in the extent to which state business cycle phases are in concord with those of the aggregate economy

are deep recessions followed by strong recoveries abstract we examine the hypothesis that deep recessions are followed by strong recoveries using a monthly data set for industrial production covering the period 1884 1990 there is a statistically significant relationship between growth in the first twelve months of a recovery and the peak to trough decline in industrial activity this effect is still found when we exclude the great depression from our sample we find no evidence that the length of the recession affects the strength of the subsequent recovery

countercyclical policy and the speed of recovery after recessions we consider the effect of some policies intended to shorten recessions and accelerate recoveries our innovation is to analyze the duration of the recoveries of various u s states which gives us a cross section of both state and national level policies because we study multiple recessions for the same state and multiple states for the same recession we can control for differences in the economic conditions preceding recessions and the causes of the recessions when evaluating various policies we find that expansionary monetary policy at the national level helps to stimulate the exit of individual states from recession we find that exogenous measures of decreases in taxes or targeted increases in federal spending reduce recovery times for state recessions we also find ambient economic conditions can extend expected recovery times other states in the same region suffering from recession around the same time the length of the preceding recession and increases in oil prices

rethinking monetary policy after the crisis abstract this lecture examines how the recent global financial crisis changes our thinking about how monetary policy should be conducted it starts with a discussion of the science and practice of monetary policy before the crisis and then uses the lessons from the crisis to argue how the practice of monetary policy should be rethought along six dimensions flexible inflation targeting response to asset price bubbles dichotomy between monetary policy and financial stability policy risk management and gradualism fiscal dominance and forward guidance

unemployment insurance and unemployment spells this paper tests the effects of the level and length of unemployment insurance benefits on unemployment durations the paper particularly studies individual behavior during the weeks just prior to when benefits lapse higher unemployment insurance benefits are found to have a strong negative effect on the probability of leaving unemployment however the probability of leaving unemployment rises dramatically just prior to when benefits lapse individual data are used with accurate information of spell durations and the level and length of benefits the semiparametric estimation techniques used in the paper yield more plausible estimates than conventional approaches and provide useful diagnostics copyright 1990 by the econometric society

labour mobility and housing the impact of housing tenure and housing affordability on labour migration in the czech republic this article examines whether housing tenure and regional differences in housing affordability have an impact on labour mobility this relationship is important for understanding the sources of structural unemployment and impediments to economic growth using two sample surveys from the czech republic this research reveals that at the individual level housing tenure is the most powerful factor determining willingness to change residence for employment reasons a time series regression analysis reveals that the impact of housing affordability on observed interregional migration patterns is relatively weak and that this effect is concentrated among the highly educated seeking employment in the capital prague these results demonstrate that housing tenure has a significant impact on labour migration plans in case of unemployment and that the dynamic impact of regional differences in housing affordability on labour mobility is concentrated within the most highly skilled segment of the labour force

repeated auctions with budgets in ad exchanges approximations and design ad exchanges are emerging internet markets where advertisers may purchase display ad placements in real time and based on specific viewer information directly from publishers via a simple auction mechanism advertisers join these markets with a prespecified budget and participate in multiple second price auctions over the length of a campaign this paper studies the competitive landscape that arises in ad exchanges and the implications for publishers decisions the presence of budgets introduces dynamic interactions among advertisers that need to be taken into account when attempting to characterize the bidding landscape or the impact of changes in the auction design to this end we introduce the notion of a fluid mean field equilibrium fmfe that is behaviorally appealing and computationally tractable and in some important cases it yields a closed form characterization we establish that an fmfe approximates well the rational behavior of advertisers in these markets we then show how this framework may be used to provide sharp prescriptions for key auction design decisions that publishers face in these markets in particular we show that ignoring budgets a common practice in this literature can result in significant profit losses for the publisher when setting the reserve price this paper was accepted by dimitris bertsimas optimization

are deep recessions followed by strong recoveries results for the g 7 countries the hypothesis is examined that the severity of a recession favourably affects the rate of growth of output during the period immediately after the recession our empirical analysis is based on the behaviour of industrial output in the g 7 countries during the period 1960 to 1985 the depth of a recession defined as the cumulative output loss between the peak and trough dates is shown to be negatively correlated with growth in the first 12 months of the subsequent expansion

political control and public sector savings evidence from the states the right to access and ultimately spend public sector savings is determined by the party which can control the politicaloutcome this implies that anticipatedfuture changes in the state s controllingpolitical party may systematicallyadversely affect current savings extendingthe life cycle permanent income model ishow that a representative legislator willopt to forgo current saving in favor ofspending when his prospects for futurepolitical control diminish estimating apanel data model of 39 states from1973 1995 i find that an actual futurechange in the controlling party of astate s lower house significantly reducescurrent saving

regional income fluctuations common trends and common cycles this paper investigates trend and cycle dynamics in per capita income for the major u s regions during the 1956 1995 period cointegration and serial correlation common features information are used in jointly decomposing the series into trend and cycle components we find considerable differences in the volatility of regional cycles controlling for differences in volatility we find a great deal of comovement in the cyclical response for all regions but the far west possible sources underlying differences in regional cycles are explored such as the share of a region s income accounted for by manufacturing defense spending as a proportion of a region s income oil price shocks and the stance of monetary policy somewhat surprisingly we find that the share of manufacturing in a region seems to account for little of the variation in regional cycles relative to national cycles but manufacturing share differentially affects trend growth for four of the seven regions studied

nonlinearity and the permanent effects of recessions this paper presents a new nonlinear time series model that captures a post recession bounce back in the level of aggregate output while a number of studies have examined this type of business cycle asymmetry using recession based dummy variables and threshold models we relate the bounce back effect to an endogenously estimated unobservable markov switching state variable when the model is applied to us real gdp we find that the markov switching regimes are closely related to nber dated recessions and expansions also the markov switching form of nonlinearity is statistically significant and the bounce back effect is large implying that the permanent effects of recessions are small meanwhile having accounted for the bounce back effect we find little or no remaining serial correlation in the data suggesting that our model is sufficient to capture the defining features of us business cycle dynamics when the model is applied to other countries we find larger permanent effects of recessions copyright 2005 john wiley sons ltd

unemployment volatility and regional specialization in the european union ezcurra r unemployment volatility and regional specialization in the european union regional studies this paper examines the link between unemployment volatility and the sectoral composition of economic activity in the regions of the european union over the period 1980 2004 to that end different spatial econometric techniques are used that allow the investigation of the role played in this context by spatial effects and geographical spillovers the results show that unemployment volatility is positively related to regional specialization in the european union this finding does not depend on the use in the analysis of absolute or relative specialization measures ezcurra r l instabilite du chomage et la specialisaiton regionale dans l union europeenne regional studies cet article cherche a examiner le lien entre l instabilite du chomage et la structure sectorielle de l activite economique dans les regions de l union europeenne entre 1980 et 2004 dans ce but on emploie diverses techniques econome

what to show on the wine labels a hedonic analysis of price drivers of sicilian wines unlike previous literature we construct a hedonic model of wine price that incorporates all the main categories of variables simultaneously to enable a better evaluation of their importance on wine price formation a comprehensive model has the advantage of providing more reliable estimates of the attributes implicit prices thereby facilitating firms pricing and improving effectiveness of wine production and marketing decisions we utilize two different datasets of sicilian wines collecting data from influential wine guides our results suggest that wine price strongly depends on objective features such as vintage alcoholic content geographical origin grape variety producer size and cellaring potential in addition use of containers like tonneaux and barrique positively affects prices whereas use of concrete containers has a negative influence no univocal indications emerge with regard to the effect of the type of company type of viticulture and firm age as for sensorial characteristics our a

information percolation with equilibrium search dynamics we solve for the equilibrium dynamics of information sharing in a large population each agent is endowed with signals regarding the likely outcome of a random variable of common concern individuals choose the effort with which they search for others from whom they can gather additional information when two agents meet they share their information the information gathered is further shared at subsequent meetings and so on equilibria exist in which agents search maximally until they acquire sufficient information precision and then search minimally a tax whose proceeds are used to subsidize the costs of search improves information sharing and can in some cases increase welfare on the other hand endowing agents with public signals reduces information sharing and can in some cases decrease welfare

understanding unemployment across california counties mark l rodini unemployment rates differ widely and persistently across counties this article examines equilibrium forces related to this geographic disparity with a focus on california we show that although seasonal variation in employment can account for some of the differences it cannot explain the total variation factors such as educational attainment age and gender appear to be strongly related to unemployment differences individuals living in higher unemployment areas also have a lower propensity to migrate because migration is usually considered to be the main equilibrating force this evidence helps further explain why unemployment rates across counties are persistently different jel j6 i introduction california has been one of the fastest growing states during the postwar era though it faced one of its most severe recessions in the early 1990s the state has rebounded strongly and projections are for continued growth underlying this strong aggregate growth however is substantial variation in economic performance at the county level one measure where this is most evident is in unemployment rates figure 1 shows average county level unemployment rates between 1985 and 1997 using data from the california employment development department the figure shows the wide distribution that exists ranging from a low of 3 7 in mann county to a high of 26 2 in imperial 1 this wide distribution is not unique to california and its existence often puzzles both the local business community and policy makers the unemployment differences shown in figure 1 are also highly persistent the rank correlation between the 1985 and 1997 california county level unemployment rates is 0 90 this suggests that during this period for a little over a decade the rank order of unemployment rates across counties did not change much counties with relatively high unemployment rates remained high data from the u s census shows that this pattern of persistence is not a recent phenomenon the rank correlation for unemployment rates across california counties between 1980 and 1970 is 0 85 and is 0 73 between 1970 and 1960 this high degree of persistence has been somewhat disheartening to those who had hoped that strong growth would trickle down and bring the high unemployment rate counties more in line with others this article examines potential factors that might help us understand the persistent differences in unemployment rates there is a large body of literature on the geographic variation in unemployment rates across space and time macroeconomic studies have generally focused attention on the impact of shocks on local labor markets and how these shocks affect local unemployment employment growth and wages as in topel 1986 blanchard and katz 1992 and martin 1997 micro studies such as da vanzo 1978 gabriel et al 1993 1995 and berger and blomquist 1992 have instead investigated how geographic variation in economic and social characteristics are related to labor market differentials examining especially demographic and industry differences along with the decision to migrate ultimately all of these studies have at their core the notion from classical economic theory that labor markets meaning wages and unemployment rates should equilibrate geographically arriving at a natural rate in the long run indeed the fact that geographic differences in unemployment rates exist and are persistent is considered to be an unexpected anomaly researchers such as marston 1985 and partridge and rickman 1997a 1997b hereafter cited as p r have pointed to a number of causes that have broadly been characterized as equilibrium and disequilibrium forces disequilibrium forces are those that affect shifts in local labor supply or demand equilibrium forces on the other hand are regional characteristics such as demographics industry structure or psychological attachment that result in each local labor market having its own wage and employment growth rate and natural rate of unemployment

public expenditures and the unemployment rate in the american states panel evidence we reexamine the unemployment rate ur government expenditure nexus in a panel of 50 state and local governments slgs over the period 1977 2006 to provide new pre recession empirical evidence that helps put the expectations on the effects of the federal relief to slgs in a broader context we found that 1 per capita real public spending total and capital assistance and subsidies wages and salaries and social insurance categories was part of a cointegrating relationship with ur and real per capita state personal income 2 with the exception of social insurance other spending variables when statistically significant actually had a depressing effect on ur the magnitude of this effect however was generally small ur was most sensitive to increases in wages and salaries 3 long term causality analysis based on panel error correction coefficients provided consistent evidence of a causal effect from spending to ur but less consistent evidence of such effect in the opposite direction soci