growth accumulation and unproductive activity an analysis of the postwar u s economy preface 1 introduction 2 unproductive activity in a capitalist society 3 a marxian accounting framework 4 a growth model of accumulation and unproductive labor 5 rise of unproductive activity in postwar economy 6 absorption of labor and capital and rate of surplus value 7 absorption of new resources and growth in real income 8 conclusions and speculations appendix data sources and methods references index

dynamics of output and employment in the u s economy this paper investigates the changing relationship between employment and real output in the u s economy from 1948 to 2010 both at the aggregate level and at some major industry grouping levels of disaggregation real output is conventionally measured as value added corrected for price ination but there are some industries in which no independent measure of value added is possible and existing statistics depend on imputing value added to equal income indexes of output that exclude these imputations are closely correlated with employment over the whole period and remain more closely correlated during the current business cycle this analysis oers insights into deeper

mass privatization state capacity and economic growth in post communist countries why did the transition from socialism to capitalism result in improved growth in some countries and significant economic decline in others scholars have advanced three main arguments 1 successful countries rapidly implemented neoliberal policies 2 failures were not due to poli cies but to poor institutional environments and 3 policies were counterproductive because they damaged the state we present a state centered theory and empirically demonstrate for the first time one of several possible mechanisms linking neoliberal policies to poor economic performance mass privatization programs where implemented created a massive fiscal shock for post communist governments thereby undermining the development of private sector gover nance institutions and severely exacerbating the transformational recession we performed cross national panel regressions for a sample of 25 post communist countries between 1990 and 2000 and found that mass privatization programs negatively affected economic growth state capacity and property rights protection we further tested these findings with firm level data from a rep resentative survey of managers in 3 550 companies operating in 24 post communist countries within countries that implemented mass privatized programs newly privatized firms were sub stantially less likely to engage in industrial restructuring but considerably more likely to use bar ter and accumulate tax arrears than their state owned counterparts

does inflation adjust faster to aggregate technology shocks than to monetary policy shocks this paper studies u s inflation adjustment speed to aggregate technology shocks and to monetary policy shocks in a medium size bayesian vector autoregression model according to the model estimated on the 1959 2007 sample inflation adjusts much faster to aggregate technology shocks than to monetary policy shocks these results are robust to different identification assumptions and measures of aggregate prices however by separately estimating the model over the pre and post 1980 periods this paper further shows that inflation adjusts much faster to technology shocks than to monetary policy shocks in the post 1980 period but not in the pre 1980 period

interpreting the macroeconomic time series facts the effects of monetary policy existing theory and evidence on the effects of monetary policy are reviewed substantial room for disagreement among economists remains new evidence based on multivariate time series studies of several countries is presented while certain patterns in the data consistent with effective monetary policy are strikingly similar across countries others particularly the tendency of interest rate increases to predict high inflation are harder to reconcile with effective monetary policy

business cycle dynamics under rational inattention we develop a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium dsge model with rational inattention and compare its predictions to data households and decision makers in firms have limited attention and optimally allocate their attention rational inattention is the only source of slow adjustment the model matches the empirical impulse responses to monetary policy shocks and aggregate technology shocks at the same time profit losses and utility losses from inattention are very small furthermore it matters whether one uses this model or a conventional dsge model for policy analysis

dark matter black holes and old fashioned exploitation transnational corporations and the us economy in advanced economies foreign direct investment fdi is usually a two way process involving both inwards and outwards investment often in the same industries why then is us fdi so profitable whilst fdi in the usa is conspicuous in its unprofitability using sectoral based data from 1999 to 2005 to investigate this puzzle i find that us owned fdi usdia demonstrates far higher returns particularly relative to foreign owned direct investment in the usa fdius but also compared to all us based industries nipa fdius is the worst performing of all three portfolios exhibiting the poorest and most volatile returns for the period examined these results hold for both the aggregate non financial data as well as for the narrow measured value added for the period tested us inwards fdi isn t employment generating whereas us direct investment abroad produces the fastest gains in labour productivity output employment investment expenditures and tax revenues whilst it is debatable that dark matter or intangible proprietary assets drive superior relative returns to usdia labour exploitation appears to play a role increases in labour productivity coupled with declining wage shares for all three portfolios especially pronounced for usdia suggest race to bottom outcomes a burgeoning aspect of this race is cross border profit shifting to minimise firms global tax burdens i suspect but am unable to confirm that profits are being shifted overseas vanishing into the black holes of tax havens transfer pricing and other modes of tax avoidance

the evolving value of foreign partnerships in transitioning economies through studying joint ventures during the early 1993 and late phases 2001 of hungary s economic transition to market economy we demonstrate how institutional and economic transformation alter

monetary policy and price responsiveness to aggregate shocks under rational inattention this paper presents a general equilibrium model that is consistent with recent empirical evidence showing that the u s price level and inflation are much more responsive to aggregate technology shocks than to monetary policy shocks the model of this paper builds on recent work by mackowiak and wiederholt 2009 who show that models of endogenous attention allocation deliver prices to be more responsive to more volatile shocks as everything else being equal firms pay relatively more attention to more volatile shocks in fact according to the u s data aggregate technology shocks are more volatile than monetary policy shocks inducing in this paper firms to pay more attention to the former than to the latter however most important this work adds to the literature by showing that the ability of the model of this paper to account for observed price dynamics crucially depends on monetary policy in particular this paper shows how interest rate feedback rules affect the incentives faced by firms in allocating attention a policy rate responding more actively to expected inflation and output fluctuations induces firms to pay relatively more attention to more volatile shocks this new mechanism of transmission of monetary policy helps rationalizing the observed behavior of prices in response to technology and monetary policy shocks and implies novel predictions about the impact of changes in taylor rules coefficients on economic fluctuations

technology shocks and monetary policy assessing the fed s performance abstract the purpose of the present paper is twofold first we characterize the fed s systematic response to technology shocks and its implications for u s output hours and inflation second we evaluate the extent to which those responses can be accounted for by a simple monetary policy rule including the optimal one in the context of a standard business cycle model with sticky prices our main results can be described as follows first we detect significant differences across periods in the response of the economy as well as the fed s to a technology shock second the fed s response to a technology shock in the volcker greenspan period is consistent with an optimal monetary policy rule third in the pre volcker period the fed s policy tended to overstabilize output at the cost of generating excessive inflation volatility our evidence reinforces recent results in the literature suggesting an improvement in the fed s performance

can long run restrictions identify technology shocks gali s innovative approach of imposing long run restrictions on a vector autoregression var to identify the effects of a technology shock has become widely utilized in this paper we investigate its reliability through monte carlo simulations using calibrated business cycle models overall gali s methodology appears to be fruitful the impulse responses derived from the artificial data generally have the same sign and qualitative pattern as the true responses and the approach can be informative in discriminating between alternative models however our results reveal some important quantitative shortcomings including considerable estimation uncertainty about the impact of technology shocks on macroeconomic variables more generally the conditions under which the methodology performs well appear considerably more restrictive than implied by the key identifying assumption this underscores the importance of using economic models to guide in the implementation of the approach in interpreting the results and in assessing its limitations jel c32 e32 o33

getting paid wage arrears and stratification in russia1 wage arrears have played an important yet unappreciated role in the stratification of contemporary russian society delays in wage payments became rampant and persistent during the 1990s because of the particular structural institutional and policy context that accompanied russia s market reforms recent improvements in russia s economy have reduced but not eliminated wage arrears an innovative practice that has become institutionalized in some but not all postsocialist societies analyses of survey data collected in early 1998 confirm the independent stratifying role of arrears inequality in getting paid is socially structured in a different manner than inequality in contracted wages and the former proves equally or more decisive in shaping inequality in actual wages arrears occur with some regularity in other national and historical contexts this study of russia shows that where arrears are rampant researchers should incorporate them into conceptual and empirical models of earnings inequalit

testing okun s law with swiss industry data okun s law postulates a stable relationship between quarterly output growth and changes in un employment this proposition has so far been tested with macroeconomic data at the highest level of aggregation the article goes beyond that in extending the analysis to industry data from switzerland applying a method suggested by the international monetary fund another focus is on whether expansions in production have become more jobless over the most recent business cycle compared to earlier ones this does not seem to be the case in switzerland except in the construction industry

the state international agencies and property transformation in postcommunist hungary1 this article challenges evolutionary accounts of property transformation in postcommunist hungary which hold that novel property forms based on interenterprise ownership have emerged in that country it shows that private property has emerged as the predominant category of ownership in hungary and explains the rapid diffusion of private ownership by focusing on the actions of the state and international agencies such as the international monetary fund and the european union following the collapse of communism state actors in hungary promoted the domestic accumulation of capital by subsidizing the sale of state enterprises to private parties particularly enterprise insiders pressures from international agencies ultimately forced government officials to abandon this policy however and to conform to a neoliberal model of the state that allowed direct foreign investment the conclusion considers the capacity of states to intervene in economic processes in an environment increasingly dominated by supras

social times of network spaces network sequences and foreign investment in hungary to model from its inception interenterprise network formation and its interaction with foreign investment across an entire epoch of rapid and profound economic transformation the authors gathered data on the complete ownership histories of 1 696 of the largest hungarian enterprises from 1987 to 2001 they develop a social sequence analysis to identify distinctive pathways whereby firms use network resources to buffer uncertainty hide or restructure assets or gain knowledge and legitimacy during this period networked property grew stabilized and involved a growing proportion of foreign capital cohesive networks of recombinant property were robust and in fact integrated foreign investment although multinationals through their subsidiaries dissolved ties in joint venture arrangements the authors find evidence that they also built durable networks these findings suggest that developing economies do not necessarily face a forced choice between networks of global reach and those of local embedde

what do technology shocks tell us about the new keynesian paradigm abstract researchers have used unanticipated changes to monetary policy to identify preference and technology parameters of macroeconomic models this paper uses changes in technology to identify the same set of parameters estimates based on technology shocks differ substantially from those based on monetary policy shocks in the post world war ii united states a positive technology shock reduces inflation and increases hours worked significantly and rapidly in both cases relative to policy shock identification technology shock identification implies i long duration durability in preferences instead of short duration habit ii built in inflation inertia disappears and price flexibility increases in response to technological improvement consumption durability increases hours worked because households temporarily increase labor supply to accumulate durables towards a new higher steady state level limited nominal rigidities allow inflation to fall because firms are able to immediately cut prices when households labor supply increases finally we consider alternative data constructions and econometric specifications we find that i and or ii hold in nearly every case

what does a technology shock do a var analysis with model based sign restrictions abstract this paper estimates the effects of technology shocks in var models of the u s identified by imposing restrictions on the sign of impulse responses these restrictions are consistent with the implications of a popular class of dsge models with both real and nominal frictions and with sufficiently wide ranges for their parameters this identification strategy thus substitutes theoretically motivated restrictions for the atheoretical assumptions on the time series properties of the data that are key to long run restrictions stochastic technology improvements persistently increase real wages consumption investment and output in the data hours worked are very likely to increase displaying a hump shaped pattern contrary to most of the related var evidence results are not sensitive to a number of specification assumptions including those on the stationarity properties of variables

jobless growth in india an investigation this paper investigates the relationship between output growth and employment growth in india for the period 1978 2010 at the aggregate and sectoral levels using a kaldorian framework of endogenous productivity growth we find that kaldor verdoorn effects in the economy have become more predominant over time especially in the post reform 1994 2010 period our estimated kaldor verdoorn coefficients measured as the employment elasticity of output growth for both formal sector and total employment have dropped dramatically over time suggesting that india has leapfrogged into a high productivity regime without the broad based expansion of labour intensive production that has been characteristic of fast growing economies in east asia we examine some explanations for why these kaldor verdoorn effects have become pronounced over time and are not convinced that wage pressure has been one of the reasons a shift in the composition of demand towards higher productivity sectors however does appear to be an important part of the explanation we also find mixed evidence that forces of international competition have generated pressures to adopt more capital intensive techniques of production

unemployment and business cycles we develop and estimate a general equilibrium search and matching model that accounts for key business cycle properties of macroeconomic aggregates including labor market variables in sharp contrast to leading new keynesian models we do not impose wage inertia instead we derive wage inertia from our specification of how firms and workers negotiate wages our model outperforms a variant of the standard new keynesian calvo sticky wage model according to our estimated model there is a critical interaction between the degree of price stickiness monetary policy and the duration of an increase in unemployment benefits

has monetary policy become more effective we investigate the implications of changes in the structure of the u s economy for monetary policy effectiveness estimating a vector autoregression over the pre and post 1980 periods we provide evidence of a reduced effect of monetary policy shocks in the latter period we estimate a structural model that replicates well the economy s response in both periods and perform counterfactual experiments to determine the source of the change in the monetary transmission mechanism and in the economy s volatility we find that by responding more strongly to inflation expectations monetary policy has stabilized the economy more effectively in the post 1980 period

the structural dynamics of output growth and inflation some international evidence we examine the dynamics of output growth and inflation in the us euro area and uk using a structural time varying coefficient var there are important similarities in structural inflation dynamics across countries output growth dynamics differ swings in the magnitude of inflation and output growth volatilities and persistences are accounted for by a combination of three structural shocks changes over time in the structure of the economy are limited and permanent variations largely absent changes in the volatilities of structural shocks matter

financialisation and the dynamics of offshoring in the usa imports are linked to higher cost mark ups and firm profits and the gains from such non competitive imports the result of offshoring are increasingly associated with the reinvestment of these higher profits our regression analysis of 35 us manufacturing and service industries over the period 1998 2006 supports aggregate and firm level studies showing that offshoring is associated with a higher share of corporate profit in total value added but the dynamic gains from offshoring have not been fully realised because firms have purchased financial assets especially share buybacks and higher dividend payments to raise shareholder value rather than investing in productive assets that raise productivity growth employment and income despite the corporate sector s contribution to national savings over the past decade the offshoring financialisation linkage reduces the capacity of non financial corporations to act as a driver of the recovery from the economic crisis that emerged in 2008

oil price uncertainty and u s employment growth abstract this paper studies the effects of oil price changes on u s aggregate and sectoral employment growth in the presence of time varying oil price uncertainty we estimate a bivariate garch in mean var model using u s monthly data of oil prices and employment growth for the period 1974 m2 2018 m11 based on the results we show that an increase in oil prices reduces total employment growth and that in most private sectors but the public sector is largely unaffected the effects on employment growth in various hub sectors are also different furthermore employment growths at both aggregate and disaggregate levels respond asymmetrically to positive and negative oil price shocks which could possibly be attributed to oil price uncertainty this asymmetric impact is more evident when the model is estimated on the entire sample than on the 1970s sample implying that the role of oil price uncertainty in accounting for variations in employment growth can differ over time these findings underline the empirical relevance of oil price uncertainty for the u s labor market dynamics

elite opportunity in transitional economies command economies gave communist era elites administrative control and material privilege but severely restricted money income and private wealth markets and privatization have injected new value into public assets and create unprecedented opportunities for elite insiders these opportunities depend on the extent of regime change and barriers to asset appropriation regime change varies from the survival of the entire party hierarchy to its rapid collapse and defeat in competitive elections barriers to asset appropriation vary with the extent pace and form of privatization and the concentration and liquidity of assets different combinations of such circumstances jointly affect the extent to which prior elites obtain ownership or control of privatized assets use political office to extract larger incomes move into salaried elite occupations or fall out of the elite altogether regime change and barriers to asset appropriation affect change at the national level but outcomes vary across economic sectors because of characteristics of organizations elite positions and assets this elementary theory serves to integrate varied findings from recent research on central europe china and russia and yields predictions for other regions

quantitative empirical research in marxist political economy a selective review this paper surveys quantitative empirical research in some key areas of marxist political economy following an introductory section on the value controversy the paper surveys quantitative empirical research on the following topics a marxist national accounts b classical marxist theory of relative prices c probabilistic political economy d profitability analysis and e classical marxian theories of growth and technical change i end by highlighting two important puzzles in the extant literature