answering the skeptics yes standard volatility models do provide accurate forecasts a voluminous literature has emerged for modeling the temporal dependencies in financial market volatility using arch and stochastic volatility models while most of these studies have documented highly significant in sample parameter estimates and pronounced intertemporal volatility persistence traditional ex post forecast evaluation criteria suggest that the models provide seemingly poor volatility forecasts contrary to this contention we show that volatility models produce strikingly accurate interdaily forecasts for the latent volatility factor that would be of interest in most financial applications new methods for improved ex post interdaily volatility measurements based on high frequency intradaily data are also discussed

optimal retail contracts with asymmetric information and moral hazard constrained joint profit maximizing retail contracts are derived when the dealer is privately informed about demand conditions before contracting with the manufacturer demand is increased by dealer promotion which is unobservable by the manufacturer consequently the manufacturer does not know whether to attribute a low level of sales to a decline in demand or to a lack of promotion we show that in general the optimal contract exhibits some form of resale price maintenance and quantity fixing the type of resale price maintenance and quantity fixing depends on how price and quantity affect the link between sales and promotion

channel coordination under price protection midlife returns and end of life returns in dynamic markets this paper examines three channel policies that are used in declining price environments price protection p is a mechanism under which the manufacturer pays the retailer a credit applying to the retailer s unsold inventory when thewholesale price drops during the life cycle midlife returns m allow the retailer to return units partway through the life cycle at some rebate and end of life returns e allow the retailer to return unsold units at the end of the life cycle under decliningretail prices if the wholesale prices and the return rebates are set properly then em i e midlife and end of life returns achieves channel coordination however such a policy may not be implementable because it may require the manufacturer to be worse off as a result of coordination if p is used in addition to em and the terms are set properly then pem guarantees both coordination and a win win outcome if theretail price is constant over time then em is sufficient to guarantee both coordination and a win win outcome

which volatility model for option valuation in china empirical evidence from sse 50 etf options in early 2015 china launched its first exchange traded option the shanghai stock exchange sse 50 etf option to meet the increasing demand for financial derivatives in this article we provide

energy investment risk assessment for nations along china s belt road initiative abstract overseas energy investment as an effective way of securing energy supply is being favored by the world s leading energy consuming countries however energy investment has the potential high risk on multiple forms including political and regulatory risk currency liquidity and refinancing risk as well as resource risk and so on to effectively evaluate overseas energy investment risk this study proposed a new indicator system from six dimensions furthermore a fuzzy integrated evaluation model based on the entropy weight was constructed to rate the energy investment risk for 50 nations along china s belt road initiative the findings indicate that resource potential and chinese factors have become the main determinant of energy investment risk while environmental constraints and political risk should also be considered for investing decisions in conclusion saudi arabia united arab emirates pakistan kazakhstan and russia are the most ideal choices for china s energy investment balancing resource potential and investment environment

monopoly provision of product quality and warranties an exploration in the theory of multi dimensional screening we address the monopoly problem of designing and pricing a product line of goods distinguished by different quality and warranty levels consumers vary in their evaluations of these attributes so that the problem is one of screening it is sufficiently complex that the local approach commonly used does not work instead we use new techniques for dealing with incentive constraints between nonadjacent consumer types these techniques allow us to characterize optimal allocations that may not be monotonic in particular although the more eager types of buyer do pay higher prices and yield the monopoly higher profit they may receive lower quality or lower warranty coverage we find preference restrictions that restore monotonicity concave risk tolerance implies that warranty coverage increases in type and constant absolute risk aversion implies that quality increases in type

pricing options under generalized garch and stochastic volatility processes in this paper we develop an efficient lattice algorithm to price european and american options under discrete time garch processes we show that this algorithm is easily extended to price options under generalized garch processes with many of the existing stochastic volatility bivariate diffusion models appearing as limiting cases we establish one unifying algorithm that can price options under almost all existing garch specifications as well as under a large family of bivariate diffusions in which volatility follows its own perhaps correlated process through an equilibrium argument duan 1995 shows that options can be priced when the dynamics for the price of the underlying instrument follows a general autoregressive conditionally heteroskedastic garch process the theory of pricing under such processes is now well understood however the design of efficient numerical procedures for pricing them is lacking most applications resort to large sample simulation methods with a variety of variance reduction techniques the complexity of pricing arises from the massive path dependence inherent in garch models this path dependence causes typical lattice based procedures to grow exponentially in the number of time increments the lack of efficient numerical schemes hinders empirical tests among the wide array of competing garch models most tests of garch models limit themselves to the use of high frequency data on spot assets with little attention placed on the information content of options 1

valuing fuel diversification in power generation capacity planning abstract deterministic capacity planning problems in electricity systems can be solved by comparing technology specific long term and short term marginal costs in an uncertain market environment mean variance portfolio mvp theory provides a consistent framework to balance risk and return in power generation portfolios focusing on fuel price risks mvp theory can be adopted to determine the welfare efficient system generation technology mix existing literature on mvp applications in electricity generation markets uses predominantly numerical methods to characterize portfolio risks in contrast this article presents a novel analytical approach combining conceptual elements of classical capacity planning models and mvp theory to derive the efficient portfolio structure consisting of an arbitrary number of plant technologies given uncertain fuel prices for this purpose we provide a static optimization model which allows to fully capture fuel price risks in a mean variance portfolio framework the analytically derived optimality conditions contribute to a better understanding of the optimal investment policy and its risk characteristics compared to existing numerical methods furthermore we demonstrate an application of the proposed framework and provide results for the german electricity market which has been hardly treated in mvp literature on electricity markets this article provides easily interpretable analytical optimality conditions for efficient generation portfolios from a societal point of view and therewith contributes to a better understanding of mvp in electricity applications

price discrimination by a many product firm determining the optimal selling strategy for a multiproduct firm facing consumers with unknown tastes is a difficult task this paper aims to show how almost optimal nonlinear tariffs can often be found when the number of products becomes large

regulating a monopolist with unknown demand and cost functions we consider the design of regulatory policy when the regulator is imperfectly informed about both the firm s cost function and the demand function it faces to some extent the optimal policy here is the natural combination of the optimal policies when there is uncertainty only about either demand or cost important qualitative differences also exist however for example it may be optimal to set prices below marginal cost and the pricing authority delegated to the firm may be more limited when there is uncertainty about both cost and demand

customer return policies for experience goods this paper studies the economic rationale for customer return policies by focusing on the experience goods aspect of many products return policies allow consumers to defer their purchasing decisions until after they gain some experience with goods in so doing they insure consumers against ex post loss which allows a monopoly seller to charge more than otherwise it is shown that the seller adopts the return policy when consumers are highly risk averse or retail costs are high consumers are strictly better off under the return policy but there is too little adoption of the policy in equilibrium copyright 1996 by blackwell publishing ltd

the economic value of realized volatility using high frequency returns for option valuation many studies have documented that daily realized volatility estimates based on intraday returns provide volatility forecasts that are superior to forecasts constructed from daily returns only we investigate whether these forecasting improvements translate into economic value added

optimal investment portfolio in renewable energy the spanish case abstract this article presents a model for investing in renewable energies in the framework of the spanish electricity market in a way that risk is minimised for the investor while returns are maximised the model outlined here is based on an economic model for calculating cash flows intended to obtain the internal rate of return irr of the different energies being studied wind photovoltaic mini hydro and thermo electrical the irrs obtained are considered the returns on investments while their standard deviations are considered associated risks in order to minimise risk a comprehensive portfolio of investments is created that includes all of the available energies by means of a system of linear equations the solution of the linear system is graphically checked using the efficient frontier method for the different financing options several case studies within the renewable energies plan per is its spanish abbreviation that is in force in spain in the period 2005 2010 are analysed in order to illustrate the method as are other case studies using different types of financing helping us to reach the pertinent conclusions

monopoly with incomplete information recent theoretical research on principal agent relationships has emphasized incentive problems that arise when the parties involved are constrained by either asymmetric information or their inability to monitor each other s actions here we concentrate on the former constraint and consider the case of a single principal the monopolist the main contribution is to show that under a separability assumption strong conclusions can be drawn about the nature of optimal incentive schemes although the primary focus is on optimal quantity discounts in a monopolized market the results also shed light on related topics such as optimal income taxation and commodity bundling

the right to return this article studies the allocation of responsibility for unsold inventory provision for which is made in practically every distribution contract the two extreme cases are the consignment contract which allocates all the burden to the manufacturer and the no return contract in which retailers purchase the merchandise outright and assume responsibility for unsold inventory contract choices are shown to vary across countries industries products and types of transactions the article identifies six main factors affecting this choice optimal inventory policy in a stochastic retail demand environment relative advantage in disposing of the unsold inventory optimal risk allocation incentives to invest in promotions and provide services to increase consumer demand information asymmetry and costs associated with the consignment contract per se several testable implications are presented and the choice of contracts in the publishing industry is shown to be consistent with the predictions of the model

effects of large scale penetration of renewables the italian case in the years 2008 2015 abstract italy has experienced a revolution in the electricity production mix in the years 2008 2015 when a large scale deployment of intermittent renewables caused a high volatility of electricity prices stopped the investments in both fossil and renewable power plants and caused a high degree of uncertainty in matching electricity demand and supply the current legislation gives renewable energy the priority of dispatchment producing a significant decrease of the operational hours of all kinds of power plants which caused economic problems to utilities that had started investments in new high efficiency combined cycles before 2008 and reduced the overall efficiency of fossil fired power generation in order to restore the opportunities for further investments in renewable energy systems it is very important to develop long term policies and interventions to improve the capacity to balance the electricity demand and supply

investments and cleaner energy production a portfolio analysis in the italian electricity market abstract the recent climate change global warming environmental disasters and the economic crisis are only the first signs of the failure of an economic system that for too long shows an uncontrolled utilization of the planet wealth the italian electricity market which is strongly dependent on hydrocarbons only in recent years has seen a first attempt to change towards renewable resources for electricity production aimed at self consumption and for feeding into the grid this paper presents an economic analysis whose purpose is to evaluate the profitability of investments in renewable technologies for the production of electricity each renewable source has its own profitability dependent on a number of factors and subject to market fluctuations cost and frequent changes in the incentive policies applying portfolio theory is possible to select the right mix of renewable energy sources and simulate its evolution moreover the presented analysis can be useful for energy planners to select future green scenarios finalized to the reduction of emissions and energy imports through the increasing use of renewable energy

exponential garch modeling with realized measures of volatility we introduce the realized exponential garch model that can use multiple realized volatility measures for the modeling of a return series the model specifies the dynamic properties of both returns and realized measures and is characterized by a flexible modeling of the dependence between returns and volatility we apply the model to 27 stocks and an exchange traded fund that tracks the s p 500 index and find specifications with multiple realized measures that dominate those that rely on a single realized measure the empirical analysis suggests some convenient simplifications and highlights the advantages of the new specification

the hidden costs of renewables promotion the case of crop based biogas abstract this paper finds that specific characteristics of bioenergy investments namely long times to build relatively high variable costs and the managerial ability of corrective actions during the project help bioenergy producers to respond to market uncertainties this effect is shown to compromise the economic effectiveness of bioenergy policies the paper compares the effectiveness of financial and regulatory incentive programs aiming to stimulate production of crop based biogas a stylized stochastic real options based investment model is developed to analyze the investment behavior of biogas producers under alternative policies the model is solved by a numerical approach combining stochastic simulations and the genetic algorithm technique unless bioenergy schemes account for structural characteristics of the bioenergy industry they will tend to encourage investments in unused production capacities this would cause additional welfare costs and benefit mainly crop producers

realized garch a joint model for returns and realized measures of volatility summary we introduce a new framework realized garch for the joint modeling of returns and realized measures of volatility a key feature is a measurement equation that relates the realized measure to the conditional variance of returns the measurement equation facilitates a simple modeling of the dependence between returns and future volatility realized garch models with a linear or log linear specification have many attractive features they are parsimonious simple to estimate and imply an arma structure for the conditional variance and the realized measure an empirical application with dow jones industrial average stocks and an exchange traded index fund shows that a simple realized garch structure leads to substantial improvements in the empirical fit over standard garch models that only use daily returns copyright 2011 john wiley sons ltd

a closed form garch option valuation model this paper develops a closed form option valuation formula for a spot asset whose variance follows a garch p q process that can be correlated with the returns of the spot asset it provides the first readily computed option formula for a random volatility model that can be estimated and implemented solely on the basis of observables the single lag version of this model contains heston s 1993 stochastic volatility model as a continuous time limit empirical analysis on s p500 index options shows that the out of sample valuation errors from the single lag version of the garch model are substantially lower than the ad hoc black scholes model of dumas fleming and whaley 1998 that uses a separate implied volatility for each option to fit to the smirk smile in implied volatilities the garch model remains superior even though the parameters of the garch model are held constant and volatility is filtered from the history of asset prices while the ad hoc black scholes model is updated every period the improvement is largely due to the ability of the garch model to simultaneously capture the correlation of volatility with spot returns and the path dependence in volatility article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

controlling opportunism in vertical contracting when production precedes sales in a make to stock vertical contracting setting with private contracts when retailers do not observe each other s stocks before choosing their prices an opportunism problem always exist in contract equilibria but public market wide resale price maintenance rpm can restore monopoly power however other widely used tools which do not fall under antitrust scrutiny and require only private bilateral contracts such as buyback contracts also allow the producer to fully exercise his monopoly power we conclude that a more lenient policy toward rpm is unlikely to affect the producer s ability to control opportunism

manufacturer s return policies and retail competition manufacturers returns policies are a common feature in the distribution of many products the obvious rationale for returns policies is insurance practitioners not surprisingly have a different perspective and view returns as a cost of doing business in this paper we study the strategic effect of returns policies on retail competition and highlight its profitability implications for a manufacturer the setting for our research is the distribution of products with uncertain demand limited shelf lives and retail competition our objective is to provide a better understanding of when manufacturers should adopt returns policies the insights are obtained with a model based on the economics of strategy and decision making under uncertainty we show that when retailing is competitive and there is no uncertainty in demand a returns policy subtly induces retailers to compete more intensely the provision of a returns policy reduces retail prices without affecting wholesale prices thereby reducing retailer margins and improving manufacturer profitability the intuition is that with a returns policy cournot like levels of retail stocks cannot be sustained each retailer will order stocks so that it will not be constrained by stocks and so intensifying retail competition when however demand is uncertain and there is a single retailer a returns policy encourages the retailer to over stock and so decreases upstream manufacturer profits while the provision of a returns policy leads to lower retail margins the optimality of returns policy depends on the overall uncertainty and marginal cost a returns policy reduces the dispersion in retail prices between the high and low states of demand and the range of retail prices in the returns case is contained within the range of retail prices for the no returns case in the general setting when there are competing retailers and demand is uncertain there is a trade off for the manufacturer between the benefits more intense retail competition and the costs excessive stocking of a returns policy we find that a manufacturer should accept returns when the marginal production cost is sufficiently low and demand uncertainty is not too great to validate the results of our theory we conduct an empirical test with data from a major u s retailer the tests confirm our prediction that a returns policy intensifies retail competition and reduces retailer margins our theory and empirical test should interest practitioners and researchers in distribution especially those concerned with managing retail competition

optimal reverse channel structure for consumer product returns consumers often return a product to a retailer because they learn after purchase that the product does not match as well with preferences as had been expected this is a costly issue for retailers and manufacturers in fact it is estimated that the u s electronics industry alone spent 13 8 billion dollars in 2007 to restock returned products lawton c 2008 the war on returns wall street journal may 8 d1 the bulk of these returns were nondefective items that simply were not what the consumer wanted to eliminate returns and to recoup the cost of handling returns many retailers are adopting the practice of charging restocking fees to consumers as a penalty for making returns this paper employs an analytical model of a bilateral monopoly to examine the impact of reverse channel structure on the equilibrium return policy and profit more specifically we examine how the return penalty is affected by whether returns are salvaged by the manufacturer or by the retailer interestingly we find that the return penalty may be more severe when returns are salvaged by a channel member who derives greater value from a returned unit also the manufacturer may earn greater profit by accepting returns even if the retailer has a more efficient outlet for salvaging units

financial optimization in the turkish electricity market markowitz s mean variance approach abstract electricity constitutes the input into many products that produced by industry and used by people hence it can be considered as a product or service that has vital importance in human life and economy since it has such special properties of instantaneous production and consumption obligation and unfeasible storage electricity market is not like other markets in a competitive electricity market generation company faces price risks and delivery risks so that risk management is an important part of a generation company and can deeply effect companies profitability this paper focuses on electricity generation asset allocation between bilateral contracts such as forward contracts and daily spot market considering constraints of generating units and spot price risks the problem is to find the optimal portfolio based on known electricity generation total costs bilateral contract prices it employed turkish historical balanced market hourly system marginal and day ahead hourly market prices between of 2006 and 2011 there are limited studies about portfolio optimization in electricity markets in literature and this paper should be considered frontier study taking spot market s hourly prices separately as risky assets markowitz mean variance optimization which is claimed to be the beginning of modern portfolio theory in financial sector is used to demonstrate this approach mean variance optimization has been successfully applied to all cases that modeled for electricity market some suggestions for future work are also listed in this paper

the transition of germany s energy production green economy low carbon economy socio environmental conflicts and equitable society low carbon transitions have been predominantly analysed using quantitative methods mostly building on present and forecasted data of social metabolism this paper addresses both the economic and social dimensions of low carbon emissions by analysing the presence of socio environmental conflicts in germany these conflicts appear to be a consequence of unsustainable policies targeting firms planning and behaviour mainly based on neoclassical economic thinking and various stakeholder groups that oppose carbon intensive businesses by applying a delphi method with 18 experts the authors analyse 117 socio environmental conflicts e g derived from extractive activity energy production and infrastructure projects in germany most of these conflicts include the struggle of various society groups to achieve a low carbon economy but also a more equitable society the analyses presented in this paper shows that germany provides both the best and the worse of achieving low carbon paths a significant investment into renewable energy but also a strong dependency on lignite which supplies the most polluting power stations of europe by addressing the problem from a historical perspective the authors demonstrate how carbon intensive extractive activity has been one of the major causes for environmental activism and protest in both socialist and capitalist societies

fuel mix diversification incentives in liberalized electricity markets a mean variance portfolio theory approach monte carlo simulations of gas coal and nuclear plant investment returns are used as inputs of a mean variance portfolio optimization to identify optimal base load generation portfolios for large electricity generators in liberalized electricity markets we study the impact of fuel electricity and co2 price risks and their degree of correlation on optimal plant portfolios high degrees of correlation between gas and electricity prices as observed in most european markets reduce gas plant risks and make portfolios dominated by gas plant more attractive long term power purchase contracts and or a lower cost of capital can rebalance optimal portfolios towards more diversified portfolios with larger shares of nuclear and coal plants

demand uncertainty and price maintenance markdowns as destructive competition this paper offers a new theory of destructive competition the authors compare minimum resale price maintenance to retail market clearing in a model with a monopolistic manufacturer selling to competitive retailers in both the resale price maintenance and flexible price games retailers must order inventories before the realization of demand uncertainty the authors find that manufacturer profits and equilibrium inventories are higher under resale price maintenance than under market clearing surprisingly consumer surplus can also be higher in which case unfettered retail competition can legitimately be called destructive copyright 1997 by american economic association

vertical price controls with uncertain demand a manufacturer distributes output before knowing demand and thus risks making more than its rivalrous independent retailers can sell at the monopoly price if demand is low retailers may therefore resell more than the joint profit maximizing output anticipating this they will not pay as much for the merchandise ex ante as they would if the manufacturer could commit to preventing rivalry the manufacturer has many options including vertical integration chain outlets restricted output buy backs just in time deliveries and minimum resale prices the article discusses each option s advantages and disadvantages and concludes that all roads lead to resale price maintenance the article closes with an alternative to the dealercartel hypothesis for minimum resale prices

a complete solution to a class of principal agent problems with an application to the control of a self managed firm this paper considers a class of principal agent problems which have the following features 1 there is adverse selection because the principal ignores the value of one parameter of the agent s true characteristics 2 leaving aside the information parameter the principal s welfare as well as the agent s welfare depend on two types of variables observable to both of them the first ones possibly multidimensional are called action variable s and the second one which is one dimensional has in general the meaning of a money transfer 3 the principal is a stackelberg leader of the two person game he can commit himself to decision rules which are admissible on informational grounds he optimizes within the adequate class taking into account besides the agent s reaction one constraint which has generally the meaning of an individual rationality constraint and sometimes of a feasibility constraint the optimization is limited to the class of non stochastic mechanisms 4 the problem can also receive an alternative interpretation the principal faces a continuum of agents of unknown characteristics the distribution being known however stylized principal agent problems of this type have often been considered in the economic literature in particular the reader will later be able to recognize that the standard income tax model a la mirrlees 1971 the quality or quantity choice model of the monopolist a la mussa and rosen 1978 or maskin and riley 1982 and the model of government regulation of the private monopolist of baron and myerson 1982 all belong to

unspanned stochastic volatility and the pricing of commodity derivatives commodity derivatives are becoming an increasingly important part of the global derivatives market here we develop a tractable stochastic volatility model for pricing commodity derivatives the model features unspanned stochastic volatility quasi analytical prices of options on futures contracts and dynamics of the futures curve in terms of a low dimensional affine state vector we estimate the model on nymex crude oil derivatives using an extensive panel data set of 45 517 futures prices and 233 104 option prices spanning 4082 business days we find strong evidence for two predominantly unspanned volatility factors jel g13

power sector investment risk and renewable energy a japanese case study using portfolio risk optimization method the conventional pricing mechanism used for electricity systematically hides huge investment risks which are embedded in the overall cost of production although consumers are often unaware of these risks they present a large financial burden on the economy this study applies the portfolio optimization concepts from the field of finance to demonstrate the scope of greater utilization of renewable energies re while reducing the embedded investment risk in the conventional electricity sector and its related financial burden this study demonstrates that re investment can compensate for the risks associated with the total input costs such costs being external volatilities of fossil fuel prices capital costs operating and maintenance costs and the carbon costs by means of example this case study shows that japan could in theory obtain up to 9 of its electricity supply from green sources as compared to the present 1 37 based on the utilization of a portfolio risk analysis evaluation explicit comparison of the monetary values of the investment risks of conventional and renewable energy sources shows that renewable energies have high market competitiveness the study concludes with a recommendation that as a business objective investors would benefit by focusing on electricity supply portfolio risk minimization instead of cost this could also inherently increase the supply of renewable energy in the market

a dynamic model of supplier switching abstract while a broad branch of literature deals with the development of buyer supplier relationships limited research exists under which circumstances a buyer should terminate such a relationship and switch to a new supplier recently wagner and friedl 2007 have developed a framework to analyze a static one shot supplier switching decision when the buyer has asymmetric information about the supplier s production costs we extend their basic framework to a dynamic one assuming that the supplier learns the production costs over time when he sets up the production process since the supplier s cost information at the individual stages crucially determines the setup and the switching decision it becomes essential for supply chain management to provide proper incentives so that the supplier reveals his cost information truthfully over time we characterize the optimal setup and switching strategy as well as the optimal supply chain contract we also compare our findings with those of the static setting to provide further insights

indicators for energy security the concept of energy security is widely used yet there is no consensus on its precise interpretation in this research we have provided an overview of available indicators for long term security of supply sos we distinguished four dimensions of energy security that relate to the availability accessibility affordability and acceptability of energy and classified indicators for energy security according to this taxonomy there is no one ideal indicator as the notion of energy security is highly context dependent rather applying multiple indicators leads to a broader understanding incorporating these indicators in model based scenario analysis showed accelerated depletion of currently known fossil resources due to increasing global demand coupled with increasing spatial discrepancy between consumption and production international trade in energy carriers is projected to have increased by 142 in 2050 compared to 2008 oil production is projected to become increasingly concentrated in a few countries up to 2030 after which production from other regions diversifies the market under stringent climate policies this diversification may not occur due to reduced demand for oil possible benefits of climate policy include increased fuel diversity and slower depletion of fossil resources

good volatility bad volatility and option pricing advances in variance analysis permit the splitting of the total quadratic variation of a jump diffusion process into upside and downside components recent studies establish that this decomposition enhances volatility predictions and highlight the upside downside variance spread as a driver of the asymmetry in stock price distributions to appraise the economic gain of this decomposition we design a new and flexible option pricing model in which the underlying asset price exhibits distinct upside and downside semivariance dynamics driven by the model free proxies of the variances the new model outperforms common benchmarks especially the alternative that splits the quadratic variation into diffusive and jump components

using return policies to elicit retailer information we show that a manufacturer may prefer to offer a return policy when dealing with a retailer who holds advance knowledge about market conditions roughly stated the manufacturer offers a liberal return allowance in lieu of a lower price to satisfy a retailer facing unfavorable market conditions a retailer facing favorable conditions finds this tradeoff unattractive because he is likely to sell the merchandise anyway and thus not make as much use of the generous return terms as a consequence a retailer is less inclined to misstate market conditions by serving as an additional control instrument a returns policy reduces the manufacturer s need to ration cut production

electricity generation cost in isolated system the complementarities of natural gas and renewables in the canary islands abstract the canary islands offer an example of an isolated electric grid of relative important size within the eu due to its peculiarities the role of renewable energies and their complementarity with fossil fuels offers a solid path to achieving the main energy policy goals of the islands the purpose of this paper is to assess the current situation and the energy objectives proposed in the energy plan of the canaries pecan 2006 for the electricity industry taking into account the average cost and the risk associated with the different alternatives for generating electricity by means of the mean variance portfolio theory our analysis highlights the inefficiency of the current electricity generating mix in terms of cost risk and lack of diversification shifting toward an efficient system would involve optimizing the use of endogenous energy sources and introducing natural gas to generate electricity this scenario would mean reducing both cost and risk by almost 30 each as well as atmospheric co 2 emissions our results agree with the pecan philosophy

cleaner production towards a sustainable transition abstract this special volume of the journal of cleaner production was built principally upon articles submitted for the 5th international workshop advances in cleaner production held in sao paulo brazil in 2015 the 43 articles emphasize the imperative need for shifting from unsustainable production and societal patterns to sustainable ones they provide many new technological and or management related approaches to help industries governments and society to speed up the transition to sustainable patterns efforts on defining and solving problems with the special accent upon a sustainable solution for the use of raw materials and energy technological advances product and policy changes are presented and deeply discussed improved corporate management for sustainable societal transitions is discussed highlighting consumer empowerment in sponsoring implementation of innovative cleaner technologies within companies industrial sectors supply chains and countries multiple examples are provided relating the successful combination of cleaner production in policy structures illustrating on how the focused work in production sectors is delivering multiplier benefits and creating conditions to facilitate a leapfrogged path toward sd

energy planning and modern portfolio theory a review abstract modern portfolio theory mpt stands as a widely accepted methodology to meet the challenges associated with the definition of energy planning for a particular territory or region energy planning is thus framed as an investment selection problem mpt is characterized by having a wider capacity and conceptual richness than the other previously used methodologies such as the individual least cost alternative the portfolio approach is based on solving for an objective function that seeks to minimize either the cost or the risk of the portfolio subject to different constraints considering that real electricity generation assets can be defined in terms of cost or return and economic risk for each alternative technology the relevant portfolios are the result of solving the optimization model to determine the efficient cost risk frontier the work presented here consists of an exhaustive review of the literature in relation to the application of mpt methodology to the field of energy planning and electricity production a new classification is proposed from a financial perspective of the selection of investments from the preceding studies it delves deeper into the explanation of the limits to the methodology and into the concept of risk which is key from both a financial and an energy perspective the main methodological contributions found in the literature are examined that are aimed at improving the capacity of the model and adjusting it to the reality of the electricity market finally conclusions are provided from the works analyzed in terms of renewable technologies and the policy implications derived from them in most studies a preference has been shown for the inclusion of renewable technologies in the efficient portfolios however in order to implement the decision to increase the share of renewable technologies greater flexibility in the interconnection capacity between states and in storage capacity is needed

demand uncertainty and returns policies manufacturers facing uncertain demand may induce distributors to carry ample stocks of their products by agreeing to accept returns of unsold goods for credit the authors model the manufacturer s decision to accept returns showing that this decision depends crucially on the nature of the demand uncertainty uncertainty over customer arrivals favors returns while uncertainty over consumers valuation of the manufacturer s product leads distributors to set retail prices too high from the manufacturer s standpoint when returns are allowed the authors show that returns can be expected to raise retail prices while maintaining shrinking distributor margins copyright 1995 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

perceived barriers and policy solutions in clean energy infrastructure investment international political negotiations and national policy for climate change mitigation are increasingly focussed on the mobilisation and scale up of investments in clean energy infrastructure this paper aims to develop the understanding of how institutional investors in the private sector perceive barriers to scaling up investment into clean energy infrastructure and what policy solutions to those barriers they advocate this paper adds to existing scientific knowledge through a clear focus on private sector perceptions through the analysis of previous public statements from organisations and coalitions in the finance sector a number of investment barriers were identified these initial barriers fed into a delphi process the outputs of the delphi process were categorized into five sets of barriers and a number of policy solutions associated with investing into clean energy solutions we conclude that there is a need for better engagement with the institutional investment community to ensure further effort on policy development that underpins investments at scale is effective and efficient

regulating a monopolist with unknown costs we consider the problem of how to regulate a monopolistic firm whose costs are unknown to the regulator the regulator s objective is to maximize a linear social welfare function of the consumers surplus and the firm s profit in the optimal regulatory policy prices and subsidies are designed as functions of the firm s cost report so that expected social welfare is maximized subject to the constraints that the firm has nonnegative profit and has no incentive to misrepresent its costs we explicitly derive the optimal policy and analyze its properties in their classic papers dupuit 2 and hotelling 5 considered pricing policies for a bridge that had a fixed cost of construction and zero marginal cost they demonstrated that the pricing policy that maximizes consumer well being is to set price equal to marginal cost and to provide a subsidy to the supplier equal to the fixed cost so that a firm would be willing to provide the bridge this first best solution is based on a number of informational assumptions first the demand function is assumed to be known to both the regulator and to the firm while the assumption of complete information may be too strong the assumption that information about demand is as available to the regulator as it is to the firm does not seem unnatural a second informational assumption is that the regulator has complete information about the cost of the firm or at least has the same information about cost as does the firm this assumption is unlikely to be met in reality since the firm would be expected to have better information about costs than would the regulator as weitzman has stated an essential feature of the regulatory environment i am trying to describe is uncertainty about the exact specification of each firm s cost function in most cases even the managers and engineers most closely associated with production will be unable to precisely specify beforehand the cheapest way to generate various hypothetical output levels because they are yet removed from the production process the regulators are likely to be vaguer still about a firm s cost function 12 p 684 as this observation suggests it is natural to expect that a firm would have better information regarding its costs than would a regulator the purpose of this paper is to develop an optimal regulatory policy for the case in which the regulator does not know the costs of the firm one strategy that a regulator could use in the absence of full information about costs is to give the firm the title to the total social surplus and to delegate the pricing decision to the firm in pursuing its own interests which would then be to maximize the total social surplus the firm would adopt the same marginal cost pricing strategy that the regulator would have imposed if the regulator had

residual income based compensation plans for controlling investment decisions under sequential private information earlier literature has pointed to the effectiveness of residual income type measures based on particular accrual accounting rules such as the relative benefit allocation rule these performance metrics have been shown to generate desirable managerial incentives when investment decisions are delegated this paper further attests to the robustness of these measures by extending the result to a sequential adverse selection model with an inherent real option an option to abandon in other words as long as the residual income measures are judiciously constructed neither private information nor the requirement to selectively exercise an option derails their use in this setting

bridging the gap between the distribution of realized ecu volatility and arch modelling of the euro the garch nig model summary this paper bridges the gap between traditional arch modelling and recent advances on realized volatilities based on a ten year sample of five minute returns for the ecu basket currencies versus the us dollar we find that the realized volatilities constructed from the summation of the high frequency intraday squared returns conditional on the lagged squared daily returns are approximately inverse gaussian ig distributed while the distribution of the daily returns standardized by their realized volatilities is approximately normal moreover the implied daily garch model with normal inverse gaussian nig errors estimated for the ecu returns results in very accurate out of sample predictions for the three years of actual daily euro us dollar exchange rates copyright 2002 john wiley sons ltd

capital rationing and organizational slack in capital budgeting this paper reconciles three stylized facts about capital budgeting in firms and shows that they are tied to the presence of asymmetric information among the several members of the firm each with his or her own objectives and decisions the facts of interest are 1 the existence of organizational slack 2 the rationing of resources within organizations 3 the stated cut off rate for accepting capital projects in firms is often greater than the market rate of interest organizational slack is defined as the excess of resources allocated over the minimum necessary to accomplish the tasks assigned resource rationing is defined as the under allocation of resources i e an increase in the amount allocated would generate revenues in excess of its costs rationing and slack are both manifestations of ex post inefficiencies an lp model is used to show that these inefficiencies can occur in ex ante efficient organizational designs when asymmetric information is present the optimal allocation policy involves a hurdle rate criterion in which the hurdle rate is strictly in excess of the cost of capital thus inducing rationing in some states of the world typically resources are optimally allocated such that slack exists in other states the optimal allocation policy trades off these two inefficiencies