bounded price variation and rational expectations in endogenous switching model of the u s corn market a model that includes bounded price variation and rational expectations by producers is estimated for the u s corn market the resulting model specification is highly nonlinear though since the probability of market equilibrium must be determined endogenously unlike previous research the cross equation restrictions implied by the rational expectations hypothesis are incorporated in the bounded prices model by using fair and taylor s 1983 procedure for obtaining maximum likelihood estimates of nonlinear rational expectations models the resulting model is compared against a standard equilibrium model with naive expectations the results show the bounded prices model is a superior specification copyright 1989 by mit press

on the existence of sunspot equilibria in an overlapping generations model abstract the existence of sunspot equilibria is shown in a one commodity overlapping generations model without stationarity assumptions on preferences endowments or nominal taxes the essential assumption is that there is a continuum of perfect foresight equilibria the technique is also useful for constructing stationary sunspot equilibria when they exist consumption in a sunspot equilibrium is shown to lie within the range consistent with perfect foresight

econometric developments in agricultural and resource economics the first 100 years this article reviews the major contributions of agricultural and resource economists in the area of econometrics over the past 100 years early on a number of agricultural economists were in on the ground floor in terms of developing new econometric methods over time as the economics profession became more empirically oriented agricultural and resource economists increasingly assumed the role of early adopters of new econometric methods even so agricultural and resource economists continue to make useful modifications to econometric techniques in order to adapt the methods to the unique nature of the problems and applications that we study

generalizing the bayesian vector autoregression approach for regional interindustry employment forecasting the bayesian vector autoregression bvar employment forecasting approach is generalized using data for the state of georgia this study advances previous regional bvar approaches by a incorporating regional input output coefficients instead of national coefficients b using the coefficients both to specify the prior means in one model and to weight the variances of a minnesota type prior in a second model and c including final demand effects and links to national and world economies out of sample forecasts produced by the generalized bvar models are compared to forecasts produced from an autoregressive model an unconstrained var model and a minnesota bvar model

commodity price forecasting with large scale econometric models and the futures market this paper compares the accuracy of major commercial price forecasts for corn wheat soybeans soybean oil soybean meal cotton live cattle and hogs the price forecasting information in futures prices is evaluated by comparison the results among commercial forecasters are mixed but futures prices perform relatively better on average although not universally so these results have important implications for operational risk management

the accuracy of oecd forecasts of the international economy balance of payments abstract this paper examines the accuracy of forecasts of the international economy made by the oecd our large data set comprising some 5500 pairs of forecasts and outcomes includes one two and three step ahead semi annual forecasts of eight components of the balance of payments for the g7 economies over a 20 year period there is considerable variation in the accuracy of these forecasts although they are generally superior to naive and time series predictions there are some marked exceptions particularly as the forecast horizon lengthens forecasting error is overwhelmingly non systematic however our study reveals numerous instances of forecasts which could be improved by a simple linear correction or by incorporating information contained in known recent forecast errors the oecd s forecasts of services and private transfers and official transfers are cause for particular concern the accuracy of these forecasts is low often below that of corresponding time series forecasts and rationality tests indicate that they are most prone to inefficiency and inconsistency

predicting turning points through the integration of multiple models a new method for forming composite turning point or other qualitative forecasts is proposed rather than forming composite forecasts by the standard bayesian approach with weights proportional to each model s posterior odds weights are assigned to the individual models in proportion to the probability of each model s having the correct turning point prediction these probabilities are generated by logit models estimated with data on the models past turning point forecasts an empirical application to gross national product gross domestic product forecasting of 18 organization for economic cooperation and development countries demonstrates the potential benefits of the procedure

macroeconomic forecasting using pooled international data it has long been recognized that national economies are economically interdependent see e g burns and mitchell 1946 for evidence of comovements of business activity in several countries and zarnowitz 1985 for a summary of recent evidence recognition of such interdependence raises the question can such interdependence be exploited econometrically to produce improved forecasts of countries macroeconomic variables such as rates of growth of output and so forth this is the problem that we address in this article using annual and quarterly data for a sample of european economic community eec countries and the united states

a comparison of autoregressive univariate forecasting procedures for macroeconomic time series the actual performance of several automated univariate autoregressive forecasting procedures applied to 150 macroeconomic time series are compared the procedures are the random walk model as a basis for comparison long autoregressions with three alternative rules for lag length selection and a long autoregression estimated by minimizing the sum of absolute deviations the sensitivity of each procedure to preliminary transformations data periodicity forecast horizon loss function employed in parameter estimation and seasonal adjustment procedures is examined the more important conclusions are that akaike s lag length selection criterion works well in a wide variety of situations the modeling of long memory components becomes important for forecast horizons of three or more periods and linear combinations of forecasts do not improve forecast quality appreciably

evaluating prior beliefs in a demand system the case of meat demand in canada an almost ideal demand system for meats is estimated using canadian data a bayesian approach is used to impose inequality restrictions on substitution elasticities via monte carlo integration and importance sampling in order to conform with prior beliefs about curvature and monotonicity restrictions and substitution relationships results are more consistent with the concavity and monotonicity restrictions from demand theory than with the added restriction that all meats are substitutes

bifurcation analysis of zellner s marshallian macroeconomic model the marshallian macroeconomic model in zellner and israilevich 2005 provides a novel way to examine sectoral dynamics through the introduction of a dynamic entry exit equation in addition to the usual demand and supply functions found in models of this class in this paper we examine the possibility of cyclical behavior in the marshallian macroeconomic model and investigate the existence of a hopf bifurcation with respect to the parameter in the entry exit equation

bayesian composite qualitative forecasting hog prices again a new method for forming composite qualitative forecasts is presented a set of qualitative forecasts is evaluated using auxiliary logit models to predict the probability of each forecast s correctness individual model forecasts are then combined on the basis of normalized values of these probabilities this method is demonstrated with three sets of forecasts on the direction of change in hog prices up or down the application shows that without any information on the manner in which the individual forecasts are generated this method can form a composite forecast that is superior according to a variety of metrics for evaluating qualitative forecasts

time and uncertainty in overlapping generations economies this paper shows the general reversibility of every perfect foresight equilibrium of an overlapping generations economy it then shows and characterizes the exist ence of reversible sunspot equilibria in these economies as well which seems to be at odds with our intuition about the irreversibility of a tree of events although the paper establishes also that such reversible stochastic equilibria constitute a negligible subset of all the equilibria of their class their mere existence may be considered somewhat puzzling for this intuition

moral degradation business ethics and corporate social responsibility in a transitional economy this article theoretically proposes and empirically verifies an understudied issue in the business ethics be and corporate social responsibility csr literature how moral degradation md in a society influences the relationship between be or csr and firm performance i e corporate legitimacy and competitive advantage building on strategic choice theory we propose that both be and csr become more important in enhancing business success when the perceived md is heightened our analysis of 300 firms operating in china statistically confirms our hypotheses first under high md firms engagement in csr results in higher corporate legitimacy and competitive advantage and second their adherence to ethical business codes leads to higher corporate legitimacy we conclude the article by outlining the implications for both theory and practice

benchmarking tendencies in managerial mindsets prioritizing stockholders and stakeholders in peru south africa and the united states managers in peru south africa and the united states were classified into four groups along singhapakdi et al j bus ethics 15 1131 1140 1996 perceived role of ethics and social responsibility presor scale in peru and the united states individuals in the ethics and social responsibility first category reported greater satisfaction with organizational performance than did those in the profits first category moral capitalists individuals who report high emphases on both social responsibility and profits reported the highest satisfaction with performance in the united states managers in the united states are more likely than their counterparts in peru and south africa to reject the mutual exclusivity of prioritizing social responsibility and profits simultaneously directions for future research are outlined

sufficient conditions for the existence of sunspot equilibria abstract this paper reports on conditions on agents preferences and endowments sufficient to guarantee the existence of sunspot equilibria in a simple overlapping generations model of pure exchange sunspot equilibria are those in which uncertainty extrinsic to the economy operates through expectations to yield a fulfilled expectations competitive equilibrium in which the extrinsic randomness has real effects on prices and allocations the paper also provides necessary and sufficient conditions for these equilibria to have agents trading in a fixed stock of valued fiat money the condition derived can be interpreted as requiring that intertemporal income effects appropriately dominate substitution effects

using bayesian techniques for data pooling in regional payroll forecasting this article adapts to the regional level a multicountry technique recently used by garcia ferrer highfield palm and zellner 1987 and extended by zellner and hong 1987 to forecast the growth rates in gross national product across nine countries this forecasting methodology is applied to the regional level by modeling payroll formation in seven ohio metropolitan areas we compare the forecasting performance of these procedures with that of a ridge estimator and find that the ridge estimator produces forecasts equal to or better than those from the newly proposed estimators we conclude that the ridge estimator which does not reference the pooled data information introduced by the newly proposed techniques may serve as a benchmark against which to judge the relative importance of this kind of information in improving forecasts

this is what the leading indicators lead we propose an optimal filter to transform the conference board composite leading index cli into recession probabilities in the us economy we also analyse the cli s accuracy at anticipating us output growth we compare the predictive performance of linear var extensions of smooth transition regression and switching regimes probit non parametric models and conclude that a combination of the switching regimes and non parametric forecasts is the best strategy at predicting both the nber business cycle schedule and gdp growth this confirms the usefulness of cli even in a real time analysis copyright 2002 john wiley sons ltd

forecasting accuracy of alternative techniques a comparison of u s macroeconomic forecasts 1986 forecasting accuracy of alternative techniques a comparison of u s macroeconomic forecasts journal of business economic statistics vol 4 no 1 pp 5 15

stabilizing competitive business cycles abstract we study how stylized monetary proportional money transfers fiscal lump sum money transfers and public expenditure policies may eliminate endogenous deterministic cycles and stationary markov sunspot equilibria in a simple version of the overlapping generations model we also present new constructive methods for analyzing stationary markov sunspot equilibria in such a framework

when one size does not fit all a problem of fit rather than failure for voluntary management standards voluntary management standards for social and environmental performance ideally help to define and improve firms related capabilities these standards however have largely failed to improve such performance as intended over emphasis on institutional factors leading to adoption of these standards has neglected the role of firms existing capabilities external pressures can drive firms to adopt standards more than their technical capacity to employ them this can lead to problems of fit between institutional requirements and a firm s existing capabilities we describe a conceptual model that considers the impact of an interaction between a firm s institutional requirements and its existing capabilities on standards failure we suggest solutions that align institutional requirements to appropriate governance forms as a means to improve standards success we contribute to theory by describing the role of firms internal capabilities to the success of voluntary management standards and the reliability of self regulation generally

macroeconomic forecasting using pooled international data in a recent article garcia ferrer highfield palm and zellner 1987 used pooling techniques to forecast annual output growth rates in nine countries examining various model specifications they found that among the fixed parameter models investigated a third order autoregressive ar model with leading indicators ar 3 li produces the best forecasts overall a reexamination using state space methods shows that a more parsimonious fixed parameter model which does not have an autoregressive part leads generally to better forecasts than the fixed parameter ar 3 li model

the application of laboratory experimental economics to the contingent valuation of public goods we have implicitly argued in the last section that a dynamic iterative survey mechanism may well need to be employed in the design of contingent valuation survey instruments in order to improve the accuracy of responses furthermore due to the current inaccuracy of hedonic and travel cost approaches for valuing public goods the least cost method in our view for establishing anchor or true individual values for testing alternative survey instruments is to use laboratory experiments the objective of these experiments should be the development of the most simple survey design which gives accurate responses subject to the budget of the investigator is a complex iterative voting procedure required how fast will such a procedure converge to true values what is the effect on incentives of relaxing the unanimity voting feature for large groups all of these operational questions can at least qualitatively be answered in an experimental laboratory setting

modeling expectations of bounded prices an application to the market for corn the presence of farm programs should directly affect the expectations of producers this paper analyzes the formation of price expectations when price supports constitute an effective lower bound on the distribution of the expectations we first investigate what the expected price would be if the usual rational expectations formula is used this leads to a relationship that is not estimable we suggest two alternatives one based on a tobit approximation and the other based on a perfect prediction of when the support is going to be effective using a simplified model of the u s corn market the methodology is demonstrated and compared to an alternative method of using futures prices as the expectation of harvest price the analysis of supply response for the major u s field crops is made difficult due to government intervention in these markets this intervention has been characterized by the use of price supports acreage diversion storage incentives etc during the last thirty years many studies have analyzed producer behavior in the presence of governmental involvement such studies have typically been concerned with modeling the effect of supports and diversions in an ex post sense rather than with how producers used the knowledge of farm programs to form their expectations if producers are rational economic agents their expectations of harvest prices should be conditioned both by free market forces and the type and degree of governmental intervention in the market of course farm programs have varied in nature and extent during the past thirty years and it is doubtful that any structural model could capture their complexities in this paper we attempt to introduce rational expectations in a simplified model of the u s corn market in essence we focus on the formation of price expectations when price supports constitute an effective lower bound on the distribution of the expectations we proceed by developing a theoretical model that connects the rational expectations model with a model of bounded price variation it is shown that one representation that may characterize the corn market is a triangular structural system with endogenous switching a full information maximum likelihood estimator is proposed for the system next an empirical model is specified and estimated the model is evaluated in comparison to an augmented model that contains a futures price so that some inferences may be made concerning the rational expectations model s success in summarizing relevant market information expectations under bounded prices consider a market that may be represented by a simple supply and demand system q a pt a2w el supply function pt b qt b2xt e2t demand function 1 where p and q represent market price and quantity w and x represent supply and demand shifters and p represents the rational expectation of product price at the time production decisions are made note that this system has a familiar recursive structure when the expected price variable is specified in terms of one or more lagged prices when the restricted reduced form of the structural system is solved for in terms of the expected price and this expression is used to replace pj wallis 1980 then models similar to those of goodwin and sheifrin 1982 and shonkwiler and emerson 1982

imposing smoothness priors in applied welfare economics an application of the information contract curve to environmental regulatory analysis economic effects of public policy alternatives often are analyzed with simulation models the value of simulation is enhanced when model parameters can credibly be estimated econometrically but unrestricted estimation can be expected to result in problematic estimates for example estimated parameters contrary in sign to what economic theory dictates the information contract curve icc developed by leamer provides a flexible means to impose regularity on estimated parameters at minimum likelihood cost we extend the icc methodology using conically uniform priors and apply it to measuring the welfare costs of environmental regulations in the u s pulp paper and paperboard industry

corporate social responsibility and corporate governance role of context in international settings this research aims to explore the relationship between corporate governance and csr what are the major factors that play a direct role in the establishment of this relationship how does context and institutional background impact upon the relationship between csr and governance using in depth semi structured interviews from two types of governance systems in three countries over three years this study has demonstrated that in practice within different settings csr is being used both as a strategy as well as a reaction to different drivers we call this adaptive governance where governance can be defined as a flexible system of action incorporating strategic and monitoring activities that determines the way a company enacts its responsibilities to its shareholders and stakeholders and which is determined at any given time by the interrelationship of institutional drivers and behavioural norms governance systems and their interrelationships with csr are demonstrated as fluid according to the national and institutional context economic situation and industry impact in the eyes of practitioners corporate governance includes both structural and behavioural factors as well as responsibilities and actions towards shareholders and stakeholders contextual factors that this research highlights to be important to the incorporation of csr into governance include the economic environment national governance system regulation and soft law shareholders national culture behavioural norms and industry impacts hypotheses on the impact of institutional contexts industry impacts and economic situations on different types of csr actions are proposed for further research

corporate social responsibility in challenging and non enabling institutional contexts do institutional voids matter the extant literature on comparative corporate social responsibility csr often assumes functioning and enabling institutional arrangements such as strong government market and civil society as a necessary condition for responsible business practices setting aside this dominant assumption and drawing insights from a case study of fidelity bank nigeria we explore why and how firms still pursue and enact responsible business practices in what could be described as challenging and non enabling institutional contexts for csr our findings suggest that responsible business practices in such contexts are often anchored on some csr adaptive mechanisms these mechanisms uniquely complement themselves and inform csr strategies the csr adaptive mechanisms and strategies in combination and in complementarity then act as an institutional buffer i e institutional immunity which enables firms to successfully engage in responsible practices irrespective of their weak institutional settings we leverage this understanding to contribute to csr in developing economies often characterised by challenging and non enabling institutional contexts the research policy and practice implications are also discussed

pooling in dynamic panel data models an application to forecasting gdp growth rates in this article we analyze issues of pooling models for a given set of n individual units observed over t periods of time when the parameters of the models are different but exhibit some similarity pooling may lead to a reduction of the mean squared error of the estimates and forecasts we investigate theoretically and through simulations the conditions that lead to improved performance of forecasts based on pooled estimates we show that the superiority of pooled forecasts in small samples can deteriorate as the sample size grows empirical results for postwar international real gross domestic product growth rates of 18 organization for economic cooperation and development countries using a model put forward by garcia ferrer highfield palm and zellner and hong among others illustrate these findings when allowing for contemporaneous residual correlation across countries pooling restrictions and criteria have to be rejected when formally tested but generalized least squares gls based pooled for

an econometric model of cattle inventories dynamic regression equations are estimated for each beef cattle breeding herd and beef cattle inventories at two levels of aggregation the u s and montana the analysis for montana was utilized as a guide for specification of the national equation to reduce the inference problem associated with letting the sample data help specify the model rational lags on average price received by farmers for calves and the ratio of fed beef to corn prices at omaha constitute the primary explanatory variables the equations perform exceedingly well over the sample period 1950 80 and in post sample forecasts with the sample truncated back to 1970

perspectives on multinational enterprises in emerging economies multinational enterprises mnes play a pivotal role in the development of many emerging economies in consequence they became the focus of scholarly research by economists and policy analysts in contrast international business scholars have been comparatively uninterested in analysing this role of mnes yet they could make important contributions to these debates first studies taking the individual firms as starting point would enhance understanding of the interaction between mnes and the local environment second theories and research methodologies developed in international business research could provide new insights into the dynamics of mnes in emerging economies the objective of this paper is to motivate more international business scholars to engage in research on positive and negative spillovers from foreign direct investment fdi in emerging economy societies to advance this research agenda scholars need to analyse the specific activities and capabilities of the firms involved and the impact of fdi on the broader social and environmental context for management this agenda raises the ethical question to what extent ought businesses to care about their local stakeholders

agricultural economists as world leaders in applied econometrics 1917 33 during the 1920s u s agricultural economists and their close associates led the world in the creation and application of what are now known as econometric techniques the most important single figure in this development was mordecai ezekiel howard r tolley holbrook working frederick v waugh louis h bean and e j working made substantial contributions w j spillman and john d black helped prepare the way for tolley and ezekiel henry a wallace was the first agriculturist to pay attention to h l moore s seminal work on demand analysis sewall wright a geneticist in the u s bureau of animal industry during 1915 25 interacted with wallace and ezekiel on problems of statistical method henry schultz moore s one disciple remained somewhat aloof from the agricultural economists but they were continually aware of each other s work as schultz like moore did virtually all of his empirical research on agricultural commodities during the period of most intense activity in agricultural econometrics from 1922 to 1930 most of the contributors were in their twenties or early thirties they made a dazzling impression on some slightly younger contemporaries who would later be among the first recipients of the nobel prize in economic science in a 1985 letter to the author tinbergen said that his own early heroes included henry schultz and several agricultural economists leontief p 5 in his 1970 presidential address to the american economic association praised agricultural economists for providing an exceptional example of a healthy balance between theoretical and empirical analysis they also were the first among economists to make use of the advanced methods of mathematical statistics formal recognition of the professional quality of the agricultural econometricians came from the american statistical association and the econometric society ezekiel became a vice president of the asa in 1929 at age 30 and a fellow by 1935 tolley waugh h working and wright became asa fellows in the 1940s the econometric society elected its first group of fellows in 1933 ezekiel was included in the second group 1935 and waugh and the two workings became fellows in the 1940s moore and henry schultz also became fellows of both associations

testing restrictions on a model of japanese meat demand tests for quasi separability net substitutability and perfect substitutability are developed and implemented on an almost ideal demand system model of the japanese meat sector the data set satisfies both symmetry and homogeneity there is evidence of net complimentarity between chicken and dairy beef and chicken and pork the tests indicate that japanese wagyu beef is considered a separate commodity to both imported beef and dairy beef the results also indicate that fish can be treated as separable in the japanese meat demand system

corporate social responsibility in global value chains where are we now and where are we going we outline the drivers main features and conceptual underpinnings of the compliance paradigm we then use a similar structure to investigate the drivers main features and conceptual underpinnings of the cooperative paradigm for working with csr in global value chains we argue that the measures proposed in the new cooperation paradigm are unlikely to alter power relationships in global value chains and bring about sustained improvements in workers conditions in developing country export industries after that we provide a critical appraisal of the potential and limits of the cooperative paradigm we summarize our findings and we outline avenues for research purchasing practices and labor standard noncompliance csr capacity building among local suppliers and improved csr monitoring by local resources in the developing world

relative prices and money a vector autoregression on brazilian data recent data on brazilian agricultural prices industrial prices and money supply are analyzed in a vector autoregression the empirical findings show strong one way granger type causality from money supply to agricultural prices while feedback is observed between industrial prices and money supply under the usual monetarist ordering of contemporaneous innovation covariance agricultural prices do not adjust faster than industrial prices to a shock in the money supply

start up sustainability an insurmountable cost or a life giving investment abstract an outstanding question in the entrepreneurship literature reigns given recent emphases on sustainable business practices and corporate social responsibility if small start ups are generally stretched for time and resources does it enhance their chances for survival and success to be sustainable and socially responsible new firms can aid in rectifying pressing environmental and social issues by being more sustainable while many entrepreneurs like a sustainable business model and or mission investment may not follow so willingly this paper examines a sample of 300 start ups across thirty cities around the world to consider whether sustainability is rewarded by investors investors signal confidence in start ups when they infuse life extending investments into them this analysis also considers whether a more sustainable national context affects investor confidence and whether a sustainable firm within a sustainable national context gains more investor attention and investment results show that investors avoid sustainable firms particularly those that are environmentally sustainable moreover investors enjoy national contexts that are socially responsible but pay no attention to those that are environmentally conscious in addition firms that are sustainable in a sustainable national context are not better off for attracting investment insights for policy are that mainstream investors are attracted by national social policies but these investors are unlikely to be the main force behind sustainable venture growth under today s conditions

the crossvergence perspective reflections and projections in this retrospective i chronicle the development of the crossvergence theory of values evolution which states it is the dynamic interaction of the sociocultural influences with the business ideology influences that provides the driving force to precipitate the development of new and unique values systems in societies crossvergence theory was introduced in our 1993 jibs paper and was the focus of our 1997 decade award paper as well as of a series of subsequent papers thus i discuss the purpose and findings for six papers that have contributed to our present level of knowledge concerning crossvergence theory i conclude my comments with a discussion of the relevance of longitudinal and multilevel research measures found to be useful and methodologies to consider as well as identifying research topics in need of exploration

on information and market dynamics the case of the u s beef market abstract the paper investigates the nature of dynamic prices and expectations in a competitive market the approach is applied to the u s beef market which exhibits cyclical patterns and significant biological lags in the production process beef price equations are estimated under different expectation regimes the empirical results indicate the presence of heterogeneous price expectations with a significant number of market participants neglecting information about the existence of a beef cycle

cointegration and stock prices the random walk on wall street revisited abstract one of the more famous and empirically regular instances of unit roots occurs in stock price series where they are consistent with rational expectations and efficient markets under certain assumptions in this paper we investigate the dynamic behavior of five stock prices over the volatile period from january 1972 through december 1979 finding that the series are cointegrated with one dominant common trend a component with an estimated root of 0 95 in addition we find a lesser trend and two complex roots in the cycle model these findings are validated by out of sample forecasts beginning in january 1980 in addition to mean squared error criteria the forecasts are evaluated nonparametrically in two separate applications of a test due to henriksson and merton

correlated equilibria and sunspots we examine when sunspots uncertainty that has no influence on endowments preferences or technology can affect equilibrium in a simple two period two commodity two class economy we find that such an effect is possibly only if the signals random variables that different agents observe are imperfectly correlated neither perfectly correlated nor independent and at least one commodity is a giffen good for two special cases we characterize the set of equilibria due to sunspots we conclude by showing the intimate connection between the sunspot equilibria of our finite horizon model and those of the overlapping generations literature

convergence versus divergence of csr in developing countries an embedded multi layered institutional lens this paper capitalizes on an institutional perspective to analyze corporate social responsibility csr orientations in the lebanese context specifically the paper compiles a new theoretical framework drawing on a multi level model of institutional flows by scott institutions and organizations ideas and interests 2008 and the explicit implicit csr model by matten and moon acad manag rev 33 2 404 424 2008 this new theoretical framework is then used to explore the csr convergence versus divergence question in a developing country context the findings highlight the usefulness of the compiled multi layered institutional framework and the varied nuances and profound insights it offers in analyzing csr in context they also suggest that a cosmetic level of global convergence in explicit csr may materialize in light of mimetic isomorphic pressures but that the path dependence hypothesis is indeed salient in light of national history trajectories and socio politico configurations the findings correspond most closely to patterns of csr crossvergence combining elements of both convergence and divergence and reflecting in complex hybridized csr expressions the findings and their implications are presented and assessed

forecasting economic time series with structural and box jenkins models a case study the basic structural model is a univariate time series model consisting of a slowly changing trend component a slowly changing seasonal component and a random irregular component it is part of a class of models that have a number of advantages over the seasonal arima models adopted by box and jenkins 1976 this article reports the results of an exercise in which the basic structural model was estimated for six u k macroeconomic time series and the forecasting performance compared with that of arima models previously fitted by prothero and wallis 1976