banking technology and the existence of a consistent output aggregate abstract this paper addresses the question of the existence of a consistent output aggregate in banking specific necessary and sufficient conditions for output aggregation are developed and tested in the context of a second order approximation to any arbitrary multi product bank cost function the analysis provides evidence that a composite aggregate measure of output fails to provide a proper representation of banking technology and therefore previous studies that used aggregate output measures may well be subject to specification errors

deregulation consolidation and efficiency evidence from the spanish insurance industry this paper provides new information on the effects of deregulation and consolidation in financial services markets by analyzing the spanish insurance industry the sample period 1989 98 spans the introduction of the european union s eu third generation insurance directives which deregulated the eu insurance market deregulation has led to dramatic changes in the spanish insurance market the number of firms declined by 35 average firm size increased by 275 and unit prices declined significantly in both life and non life insurance we analyze the causes and effects of consolidation using modern frontier efficiency analysis to estimate cost technical and allocative efficiency as well as using malmquist analysis to measure total factor productivity tfp change the results show that many small inefficient and financially underperforming firms were eliminated from the market due to insolvency or liquidation as a result the market experienced significant growth in tfp over the sample period consolidation not only reduced the number of firms operating with increasing returns to scale but also increased the number operating with decreasing returns to scale hence many large firms should focus on improving efficiency by adopting best practices rather than on further growth

uncertainty effects on production mix and on hedging decisions the case of brazilian ethanol and sugar abstract the use of food crops to produce biofuels has been subject of interest in literature the relationship between food and fuel prices can remarkably affect production strategies these prices are subject to high uncertainty and producers must adopt hedging and storage strategies in order to avoid financial losses this study investigates the effect of uncertainty on production storage and hedging of ethanol and sugar in brazilian mills a robust optimization model to define production storage and hedging strategies is proposed uncertainty sets on returns are constructed based on a state space model kalman filter the presented model was applied to brazilian ethanol and sugar markets in different economic scenarios the study analyses efficient frontiers and optimal strategies and the results indicate that even adopting good price forecast models the optimal strategies can be deeply affected by uncertainty

state regulation and the structure conduct efficiency and performance of us auto insurers abstract this research investigates the impact of regulation on state automobile insurance markets while controlling for other state insurance market characteristics that may be related to performance data for a large sample of insurers are analyzed the results suggest that insurers in competitive and non stringently regulated states may benefit from market power by charging higher unit prices however insurers in these states are on average more cost x efficient and cost x efficient insurers charge lower prices and earn smaller profits the empirical results also suggest that insurers in some rate regulated states are less revenue and cost scale efficient than in competitive states

the determinants of efficiency and productivity in the swiss insurance industry abstract using state of the art frontier efficiency methodologies we study the efficiency and productivity of swiss insurance companies in the life property casualty and reinsurance sectors from 1997 2013 in this context we provide the first empirical analysis of internationalization strategies of insurance companies a topic of high interest in the business and economics literature but one that has to date not been the focus of efficiency studies in the insurance sector we find that productivity and efficiency have improved with regard to property casualty and reinsurance in the case of life insurance productivity and efficiency diminished however life insurance firms with higher levels of international business exhibit superior efficiency levels we observe that diversification strategies directed to the european market are more beneficial compared to those targeting markets outside of europe

lottery dependent utility in this paper we propose a model for decision making under risk that is capable of predicting empirically observed preference patterns that have been found to be incompatible with the expected utility model the model departs from the classical expected utility model by allowing utilities to depend on the lottery the dependence of utilities on the lottery being evaluated is achieved by restricting the utility measure to a convenient parametric family of functions the idea then is to use each lottery to determine a specific parameter value thus characterizing the utility function for each particular lottery the expected value of this lottery dependent utility function provides the overall measure of preference the model retains the properties of transitivity stochastic dominance and continuity it also permits types of analyses such as exploitation of basic attitudes toward risk through risk aversion properties that have been found useful in decision theory the primary use of our model is in descr

decreasing risk aversion and mean variance analysis on formule un ensemble de postulats d aversion pour le risque absolu decroissant et on montre que seules les fonctionnelles d utilite moyenne variance peuvent les satisfaire

on the statistical foundations of non linear utility theory the case of status quo dependent preferences abstract an account of non expected utility is given which resumes concepts of analysis from statistical decision theory and combines them with standard principles of preference theory such as weak order continuity and stochastic dominance a three parameter family of probability dependent utility functions is specified which is governed by the decision maker s aspiration level distribution of present wealth or status quo and discount parameter for future risks the approach offers a simple resolution of the allais paradox and explains basic patterns of probability dependent risk attitudes arising in theoretical and applied decision analysis

risk pricing in a non expected utility framework abstract risk prices are calculated as the certainty equivalents of risky assets using a recently developed non expected utility non eu approach to quantitative risk assessment the present formalism for the pricing of risk is computationally simple realistic in the sense of behavioural economics and straightforward to apply in operational research and risk and decision analyses

market structure and the efficiency of european insurance companies a stochastic frontier analysis abstract this paper is motivated by the progressive liberalisation of the european insurance market in recent years it uses stochastic frontier analysis to estimate flexible fourier cost functions for european insurance companies separate frontiers are estimated for life non life and composite companies we adopt a maximum likelihood approach to estimation in which the variance of both one sided and two sided error terms is modelled jointly with the frontiers this approach allows us to simultaneously control for the impact of heteroskedasticity on the estimation of scale economies as well as estimating the effect of firm size and market structure on x inefficiency the study draws on standard poor s eurothesys data set of financial reports for the period 1995 to 2001 this provides technical and non technical accounts at year end for life non life and composite insurance businesses in 14 major european countries our estimates suggest that over this period most european insurers were operating under conditions of decreasing costs increasing returns to scale and that company size and domestic market share were significant factors determining x inefficiency larger firms and those with high market shares tend to have higher levels of cost inefficiency

the determination of spot and futures prices with storable commodities this paper analyzes the effects of futures trading in a market for a storable commodity in which producers and speculators are assumed to be risk averse and specifications of the aggregate supply and inventory demand functions are derived from explicit optimization a critical aspect is how the parameters of these functions change with the introduction of the future market as it is through these induced parameter changes that the futures market exerts its influence on the spot price the effects of the futures market on both the long run average spot price and its variance are analyzed while we are unable to draw any definitive conclusions on this issue we find that in all cases considered the futures market stabilizes the spot price as well as lowering its long run mean for many years now the question of the effects of futures trading on the stability of spot prices has been extensively debated this topic has been discussed at various levels for example farmers and agricultural interest groups have claimed that futures trading destabilizes spot prices thereby imposing welfare losses on the economy in the united states congress has decided that futures trading can cause price destabilization and has subjected futures trading to the regulation of the commodity futures trading commission at a more analytical level economists have been investigating the issue both empirically and more recently theoretically as well

evaluating solvency versus efficiency performance and different forms of organization and marketing in us property liability insurance companies abstract solvency is a primary concern for regulators of insurance companies claims paying ability is a primary concern for policyholders and return on investment is a primary concern for investors these interests potentially conflict and the decision makers for the firm must trade off one concern versus another here we examine the efficiency of insurance companies via data envelopment analysis using solvency claims paying ability and return on investment as outputs and using a financial intermediary model for the insurance company the effect of solvency on efficiency is then examined these efficiency evaluations are further examined to study stock versus mutual form of organizational structure and agency versus direct marketing arrangements which are examined separately and in combination

comparative statics and non expected utility preferences abstract researchers have shown that many though not all of the basic results of expected utility analysis can be more or less directly generalized to non expected utility preferences this paper describes the essential difference between results which can be extended in this manner and those which cannot and shows that an important family of comparative statics theorems falls into the former class

single market effects on productivity in the german insurance industry abstract the single market project of the european commission was supposed to foster productivity growth in the financial service industry we assess its consequences on productivity development in the german insurance industry one of the largest insurance markets within the european union by applying data envelopment analysis to a panel of german insurance companies we estimate standard and bootstrapped efficiency scores for the years 1991 through 2006 and apply a test on scale efficiency based on bootstrapped statistics furthermore we compute a malmquist index and test for different types of productivity convergence across firms

scale economies in banking a restructuring and reassessment the issue of scale economies in banking has a rich history most earlier studies report modest operating cost scale economies for small institutions those with less than about 50 million of deposits in 1968 dollars but are unclear where these economies might end if at all unfortunately these studies are limited in four important respects first those that were well specified did not measure the total cost of banking operations but concentrated on estimating scale economies for individual banking functions e g demand deposits separately from commercial loans second an average cost curve that could take a u shape over the full range of banks was not fitted either because larger banks were not included or because of the functional form used cobb douglas consequently the optimum or minimum cost size of a bank or office could not be determined third the variables measuring the costs of branching were misspecified fourth the branch

economies of scale and economies of scope in multiproduct financial institutions a study of british columbia credit unions this paper investigates the production technology facing computerized credit unions in canada a full system of translog cost equations is estimated in order to test for economies of scale economies of scope and other production characteristics in a multiproduct context the regression results indicate that most of the credit unions in our sample experience significant increasing returns to scale as they expand their level of output there is also evidence of cost complementarity or economies of scope in their mortgage and other lending activities as a result legislation which limits the ability of credit unions to grow and diversify will likely raise the operating costs of this important group of financial institutions additional structural tests of the most general translog specification suggest that none of the restrictive production conditions commonly imposed by other researchers using cobb douglas and ces specifications provide a valid representation of credit union technology the results of many earlier studies are therefore open to question this paper presents a number of structural tests of the production technology facing large computerized credit unions in canada a full system of translog cost equations is estimated using detailed cross sectional data on british columbia credit unions the parameter estimates obtained from our multiproduct specification allow us to test for economies of scale economies of scope and factor substitution unlike many earlier studies the present paper introduces the various outputs as separate variables instead of crudely proxying them with a single output measure such as total assets the total number of loans or the number of depositors by explicitly recognizing the multiproduct nature of the intermediation process we are able to address more interesting production questions and remove some of the bias caused by misspecification and measurement error in simpler approaches the flexible translog specification allows us to estimate the sensitivity of costs to proportionate increases in all outputs economies of scale as well as the cost savings firms realize by producing several outputs jointly rather than specializing in the production of one economies of scope the test results reported in the latter part of the paper suggest that increasing returns to scale exist in almost all of the credit unions in our sample though

under pressure how the business environment affects productivity and efficiency of european life insurance companies deregulation and widespread economic changes have fundamentally affected the business environment of european life insurance companies over the last decades we apply multi stage data envelopment analysis to identify the impact of the changing environment on productivity and efficiency of european life insurance companies considering a sample of 970 life insurance companies from 14 european countries we show that general economic capital market and insurance market conditions are important drivers of efficiency although we find no technical change in the european life insurance sector we nonetheless observe an efficiency increase in 2002 2013 that leads to an increase in total factor productivity these trends can be explained by more challenging business conditions in the 2000s our results emphasize the need to control for the business environment in cross country efficiency studies

the robustness of output measures in property liability insurance efficiency studies abstract we empirically examine two methods for measuring output in property liability insurer efficiency studies the value added approach and the flow or financial intermediation approach the approaches are not mutually consistent the value added approach is closely related to traditional measures of firm performance but the flow approach is not in addition efficient value added approach firms are less likely to go insolvent while firms characterized as efficient by the flow approach are generally more likely to fail we also find that the theoretical concern regarding the value added approach s use of losses as a measure of output is not validated empirically

efficiency in the international insurance industry a cross country comparison the purpose of this paper is to provide new empirical evidence on frontier efficiency measurement in the international insurance industry a topic of great interest in the academic literature during the last several years a broad efficiency comparison of 6462 insurers from 36 countries is conducted different methodologies countries organizational forms and company sizes are compared considering life and non life insurers we find a steady technical and cost efficiency growth in international insurance markets from 2002 to 2006 with large differences across countries denmark and japan have the highest average efficiency whereas the philippines is the least efficient regarding organizational form the results are not consistent with the expense preference hypothesis which claims that mutuals should be less efficient than stocks due to higher agency costs only minor variations are found when comparing different frontier efficiency methodologies data envelopment analysis stochastic frontier analysis

two moment decision models and expected utility maximization two moment decision models are consistent with expected utility maximization only if the choice set or the agent s preferences are restricted this paper identifies a restriction which is sufficient to ensure this consistency and confirms that it holds in many economic models the implications for economic analysis are then derived two different approaches to representing an agent s preferences over strategies yielding random payoffs are in wide use under the mean standard deviation ms approach the agent is assumed to rank the alternatives according to the value of some function defined over the first two moments of the random payoff while the expected utility eu criterion assumes that the expected value of some utility function defined over payoffs is used instead the fact that there are these two competing approaches has generated a considerable literature some authors are concerned with the advantages and disadvantages of each while others deal with conditions under which the potentially different approaches would yield the same results or at least approximately so space does not

hedging price risks of farmers by commodity boards a simulation applied to the indian natural rubber market abstract this paper investigates a hypothetical hedging scheme in a domestic commodity market under which a commodity board offers a forward contract to domestic producers and local traders and covers its commitments on an international futures exchange it is aimed to quantify welfare gains to agents in the market and costs and benefits of the board empirically the empirical work is based on the indian natural rubber market and the tokyo commodity exchange tocom for the period 1990 95 the hedging scheme is shown to increase welfare substantially particularly welfare of growers the costs of such a facility for the commodity board basis risk are negligible if the forward price offered on the domestic market is a small fraction below the international futures price the board can prevent losses at only slightly lower welfare gains

organizational form and efficiency the coexistence of stock and mutual property liability insurers this article introduces a new approach cross frontier analysis for estimating the relative efficiency of alternative organizational forms in an industry the technique is illustrated by analyzing a sample of stock and mutual property liability insurers using nonparametric frontier efficiency methods cross frontier analysis measures the relative efficiency of each organizational form by computing the efficiency of each stock mutual firm relative to a reference set consisting of all mutual stock firms we test agency theoretic hypotheses about organizational form including the managerial discretion and expense preference hypotheses the results indicate that stocks and mutuals are operating on separate production and cost frontiers and thus represent distinct technologies consistent with the managerial discretion hypothesis the stock technology dominates the mutual technology for producing stock outputs and the mutual technology dominates the stock technology for producing mutual outputs however consistent with the expense preference hypothesis the stock cost frontier dominates the mutual cost frontier our findings thus suggest a richer interpretation of organizational form than provided by previous researchers

futures trading and the welfare evaluation of commodity price stabilisation it is notorious that commodity prices are volatile and there is a substantial literature on the wisdom of complete or partial elimination of this volatility the modern academic literature starts from waugh i944 who argued that consumers benefit from price volatility since they can take advantage of low prices by increasing consumption and oi i96i who argued the parallel proposition for producers massell i969 noting that waugh had assumed supply side disturbances whilst oi had assumed demand side disturbances provided an integrated model in the same spirit samuelson i972 showed that notwithstanding the contributions of waugh and oi it will not be beneficial within a standard competitive market clearing model to destabilise prices the literature is surveyed in turnovsky i978 this raises the question of whether stabilisation can be justified in the context of a competitive free market in which private agents make optimal stockholding decisions wright and williams i982 a number of authors see for example johnson i967 ch 5 have suggested that the fundamental theorem of welfare economics rules out such intervention standard arguments that would qualify this conclusion are superior governmental access to capital markets or information and the assertion that stabilisation may result in a favourable redistribution of income newbery and stiglitz i98i have stressed the rather more powerful argument that application of the fundamental theorem of welfare economics in an uncertain and explicitly intertemporal context requires the existence of a complete set of forward and contingent contracts markets futures or forward markets do exist for delivery of many important primary commodities at near dates but this is far from sufficient to satisfy the prerequisites of the theorem since agents will use those markets which do exist as substitutes for those that are absent since for example moral hazard considerations prevent widespread trading of crop insurance contracts farmers are obliged to obtain insurance against poor crops through the imperfect substitute of hedging on futures markets the limited range of futures and contingent claims markets invalidates the argument that intervention can never be justified in welfare terms but at the same time this only establishes the possibility of a justification for intervention a specific case must be made for each market futures trading allows market transactors to fix their prices in advance of delivery for example a farmer may completely hedge by selling his entire

a multiproduct cost study of savings and loans this paper investigates the cost structure of savings and loans most studies of financial institutions have failed to take into account the multiproduct nature of these institutions using the multiproduct approach the existence of subadditivity multiproduct global and product specific economies of scale and scope and substitutability between inputs is investigated a translogarithmic cost function is estimated using 1982 data on california savings and loans restrictive functional forms also estimated are rejected standard errors for the statistics calculated are estimated and various statistical tests are conducted previous authors have not calculated standard errors for these statistics no evidence of subadditivity in the industry is found in order to investigate the impact of deregulation on the financial services industry it is necessary to know the cost structure of the industry optimal firm size and product mix can be determined once the structure is known the presence of scale economies would imply that smaller firms or entering firms that operate at a small scale would be at a cost disadvantage compared with larger established firms a finding of economies of scope i e economies of joint production would imply that firms that were specialized would be at a cost disadvantage and that regulations that restrict the outputs a firm is allowed to produce may lead to inefficient production

forecasting bankruptcy more accurately a simple hazard model i argue that hazard models are more appropriate than single period models for forecasting bankruptcy single period models are inconsistent while hazard models produce consistent estimates i describe a simple technique for estimating a discrete time hazard model i find that about half of the accounting ratios that have been used in previous models are not statistically significant moreover market size past stock returns and idiosyncratic returns variability are all strongly related to bankruptcy i propose a model that uses both accounting ratios and market driven variables to produce out of sample forecasts that are more accurate than those of alternative models copyright 2001 by university of chicago press

the measurement of efficiency in life insurance estimates of a mixed normal gamma error model abstract this paper make three contributions to the literature on efficiency in financial services first it presents estimates of a mixed error cost frontier in which the variances of both the normal and gamma distributions can vary with firm size second it extends the literature on life insurance scale and product mix economies by incorporating and measuring x inefficiency estimates of x inefficiency range from 35 to 50 ray scale economies exist up to 15 billion in assets third comparisons of normal gamma estimates with other methods 3 thick frontier weighted least squares half normal distributions 3 demonstrate some of their pitfalls

price volatility in commodity markets with restricted participation abstract in commodity markets price volatility may rise significantly if the product granularity increases to gain insights into the underlying drivers we analyze price volatility based on the example of german electricity markets we develop a theoretical model to reproduce the price formation in the day ahead and intraday auction which are sequential short term electricity markets with 60 minute and 15 minute products as cross border trade is allowed in the day ahead but not in the intraday auction the model accounts for the impact of restricted market participation the theoretical model is then transferred into an empirical analysis to first validate the modeling approach and second to comparatively assess the impact of increasing product granularity and restricted market participation the empirical results indicate that the disproportional rise in quarter hourly price volatility is mainly triggered by limited market participation and not only by the high volatility of renewable supply and demand since restricted market participation refers to a lack of market coupling we derive a proxy for efficiency losses ranging from eur 55 million to eur 108 million that may be reduced if markets are coupled

modeling the market and welfare effects of mexico s agriculture by contract program agriculture by contract hbox a times hbox c is the main mexican government program aimed at mitigating price risks for agricultural producers in mexico hbox a times hbox c has unique features involving forward contracts and the provision of basis subsidies and subsidized exchange traded futures options for both producers and intermediaries a simulation model is developed to analyze the market and welfare effects of hbox a times hbox c when applied to corn results show that hbox a times hbox c exerts substantial impacts and causes large transfers across sectors even if hbox a times hbox c reduced intermediaries market power to the largest extent feasible results indicate that it would still cause important losses in aggregate welfare

an efficiency comparison of the non life insurance industry in the bric countries abstract we analyze the efficiency of non life insurance companies in four of the fastest growing markets in the world the bric brazil russia india china countries an innovative feature of this paper is its incorporation of uncontrollable variables in the efficiency analysis using multi stage data envelopment analysis dea this approach captures cross country differences such as the political and economic environment and allows distinguishing between managerial inefficiency and inefficiency due to environmental conditions we find that the environment affects the efficiency of non life insurers operating in the bric countries furthermore in a regression of firm characteristics on efficiency scores we identify four drives of efficiency size profitability solvency and ownership form the results further our understanding of the insurance industry in the bric countries in regard to its efficiency and the environment in which it operates

when do futures markets destabilise spot prices futures markets allow agents to shift price risk onto speculators and encourages them to take riskier decisions historically their main impact has been to encourage the storage of commodities thus arbitraging prices over time and reducing price fluctuations this paper presents a simple model in which opening futures markets in a nonstorable commodity encourages producers to choose riskier production techniques which destabilizes supply and hence the spot price copyright 1987 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

do futures benefit farmers simulations are used to analyze welfare and market and farm level effects of making futures available to producers of a storable commodity key features of the model are the explicit consideration of dynamic impacts due to inventories and of aggregate market effects associated with futures adoption by some producers application to the natural rubber market shows that futures availability can lead to sizeable market and farm level effects futures availability enhances consumer welfare reduces non adopter welfare and yields important welfare gains for adopters when their market share is small and welfare losses when they account for a sufficiently large market share