an earnings prediction approach to examining intercompany information transfers abstract we assess potential information transfers by examining the association between the earnings announcements of early and late announcers in an industry our earnings prediction models are statistically significant much more frequently than would be expected by chance the models suggest potential positive information transfers on average but there is substantial cross industry variation in the strength of this relation we find that the greatest price reactions by nonannouncers to same industry earnings announcements occur in industries with the greatest earnings comovement

unexpected earnings and intraindustry information transfers further evidence this paper provides evidence on the association between unexpected quarterly earnings information and the contemporaneous stock price behavior of announcing and nonannouncing firms in the same industry prior research provides evidence consistent with a positive sign and magnitude relation between the unsystematic stock returns of announcing and nonannouncing firms at earnings release dates i e information transfers foster 1981 and clinch and sinclair 1987 as these studies emphasize however such an association may arise from misspecification of the stock return generating process to address this issue we use unexpected earnings not announcing firms unsystematic stock returns in tests of information transfers evidence consistent with information transfers when unexpected earnings are used as a proxy for the informativeness of earnings would reduce the likelihood of information transfers attributable to returns model misspecification and would support the hypothesis that unexpected earnings and not some unspecified information item drive information transfers at earnings release dates we find a positive sign and magnitude relation between the contemporaneous unsystematic stock returns of announcing and nonannouncing firms at earnings release dates and between unexpected earnings of announcing firms and unsystematic stock returns of nonannouncing

discussion of voluntary disclosure choice and earnings information transfer pownall and waymire s paper prompted a general discussion of information transfer research particularly its motivation and methodology this summary begins with a brief introduction to information transfer research it then considers motivation and methodology since the discussion related both to pownall and waymire s research specifically and to information transfer research generally these discussion comments extend to both as well

the role of market forces in assuring contractual performance the conditions under which transactors can use the market repeat purchase mechanism of contract enforcement are examined increased price is shown to be a means of assuring contractual performance a necessary and sufficient condition for performance is the existence of price sufficiently above salvageable production costs so that the nonperforming firm loses a discounted steam of rents on future sales which is greater than the wealth increase from nonperformance this will generally imply a market price greater than the perfectly competitive price and rationalize investments in firm specific assets advertising investments thereby become a positive indicator of likely performance

a comparison of event study methodologies using daily stock returns a simulation approach accounting research studies commonly use measures of abnormal security returns to test hypotheses about accounting information and policies alternative methods are used in these studies to detect abnormal performance and thereby examine the information content of identified events the ability of these methods to detect abnormal returns using simulation techniques is examined by brown and warner 1980 1984 morse 1984 addresses this issue analytically the analytical approach presumes that the event study data is generated by the process modeled while the simulation approach uses the security return data generated by the market simulation provides a tractable means of dealing with situations where an analytical approach may yield results suggesting direction but not magnitude or where such techniques are unusually cumbersome both limitations face us in this study brown and warner 1980 use monthly data to examine the comparative abilities of several combinations of return generating models and

measuring the effects of regulation with stock price data this article examines the usefulness of stock returns in measuring the effects of regulation when the dates on which market expectations change are not known and standard sources e g the wall street journal are used to choose announcement dates twenty major changes in regulatory constraint since 1887 are considered tests using either monthly or daily data are found to have surprisingly little ability to detect the effects of regulation the evidence shows that formal regulatory announcements are generally anticipated in cases where it is unclear when expectations change

a theory of disclosure in speculative markets this paper presents a theory of disclosure in a market where investors have heterogeneous beliefs and face short sale constraints assets trade above fundamentals reflecting the value of the option to sell to more optimistic investors in the future the initial seller has an incentive to commit to an imprecise disclosure policy despite the negative effect this has on the fundamental value of the asset in order to increase the potential for disagreement and hence the magnitude of the speculative premium i show that there is a strategic complementarity between sellers in their disclosure decisions this explains why financial misreporting and episodes of speculation occur together in waves and demonstrates that the endogenous choice of imprecise disclosure amplifies the extent to which assets are overpriced this paper was accepted by amit seru finance

brazilian biofuels and social exclusion established and concentrated ethanol versus emerging and dispersed biodiesel increasing interest in biofuels trade between developed and developing countries has spurred worldwide discussions on issues such as subsidies and the food for fuel crisis one issue missing in recent discourse is the pressure exerted on developing countries to adopt large scale mechanized farming practices to increase economic efficiencies such approaches often exclude small scale farmers from participating in the emerging biofuels market thus exacerbating poverty and social exclusion drawing on both qualitative and technical data we discuss such pressures using brazilian ethanol and biodiesel production pressure from international markets to become more economically efficient may contribute towards the erosion of recent schemes to encourage social benefits for small farmers in biodiesel production we conclude with trade and policy implications

analysing the risk premium in the italian stock market arch m models versus non parametric models this paper investigates the variability of the risk premium in the italian stock market over the period 1978 89 we have modelled voatility using two different approaches arch m models and non parametric models the estimate of the arch m models confirm the existence of both an arch process in the variance and a time varying risk premium also the non parametric specification confirms the existence of a time varying risk premium moreover in both models the acceleration in the inflation rate has a negative effect on stock prices

agency problems auditing and the theory of the firm some evidence agency problems auditing and the theory of the firm some evidenceauthor s ross l watts and jerold l zimmermansource journal of law and economics vol 26 no 3 oct 1983 pp 613 633published by the university of chicago pressstable url http www jstor org stable 725039accessed 29 06 2008 23 14

estimation of asset demands by heterogeneous agents we develop optimization models to analyze the demand for financial assets by heterogeneous agents the models extend frankel s j portfolio manage 11 4 1985 18 earlier approach and relax the assumption of normality of asset returns instead we assume that investors maximize an expected utility of terminal wealth based on heterogeneous attitudes toward risk solving a bi level optimization program we endogenously estimate the risk aversion parameters and derive the optimal asset holdings for each agent the models are tested on united states market data explaining the market structure better than previously postulated models

market assessment of industry and firm earnings information abstract this study examines the timing of security returns associated with industry wide earnings and firm specific earnings we predict and find that returns associated with differences in performance across industries begin and end earlier than returns associated with differences in firm specific performance within industries to earn abnormal profits a trading strategy based on forecasts of future earnings would require earlier predictions of industry wide earnings than of firm specific earnings

understanding company r d strategies in agro biotechnology trajectories and blind spots companies innovating in agriculture related biotechnology currently confront a complicated and controversial policy environment using analytical frameworks of technological trajectories and paradigms this paper examines r d strategy in large companies a large research project found that r d related decisions taken by managers reflect company distinctiveness and can be characterised as cumulative in important respects economising and strategising strategies combine in different ways but in many instances managers did not sufficiently recognise the importance of complex interactions between public policy and public opinion and failed adequately to incorporate public policy into strategic r d decision making this blind spot compounded initial difficulties in bringing products to market and has had significant impact on the rate and direction of innovation in this area including contributing to the demise of the idea of an integration of agro and health sectors based on life sciences the paper raises important questions about the relationship between technological paradigms industry and sector level trajectories and decision making in firms

market and political regulatory perspectives on the recent accounting scandals not surprisingly the recent accounting scandals look different when viewed from the perspectives of the political regulatory process and of the market for corporate governance and financial reporting we do not have the opportunity to observe a world in which either market or political regulatory processes operate independently and the events are recent and not well researched so untangling their separate effects is somewhat conjectural this paper offers conjectures on issues such as what caused the scandalous behavior why was there such a rash of accounting scandals at one time who killed arthur andersen the securities and exchange commission or the market did fraudulent accounting kill enron or just keep it alive for too long what is the social cost of financial reporting fraud does the united states in fact operate a principles based or a rules based accounting system was there market failure or was there regulatory failure or both was the sarbanes oxley act a political and regulatory overreaction does the united states follow an ineffective regulatory model

invited remarks ball and brown 1968 it is a great honor for me to be at this conference and speaking to you today nick dopuch was not all that explicit when it came to a topic for this last session nick said talk about anything you like i interpreted that to mean i should talk in general terms about my early work with ray ball and its influence on the accounting literature and in particular about a paper we wrote about 20 years ago which is now commonly referred to simply as ball and brown 1968 i begin by covering the paper itself the antecedent conditions why the paper was written what we attempted to do in the paper and what was novel as far as we were concerned next i give my view of the main strands in the accounting literature since 1968 that are related to our work i conclude by offering a few thoughts on directions that the capitalmarkets based accounting literature might take in the years ahead

the paradox of sustainable innovation the eroom effect moore s law backwards innovation has been widely acknowledged as a key mechanism for addressing sustainable development concerns however less attention has focused on downstream commercialization challenges such as achieving increasingly complex and stringent regulatory approval such challenges may hinder the development of more sustainable technologies especially those coming from smaller or publically funded institutes as well they may obstruct the development of applications that could provide societal benefits but may only have limited commercial viability due to small market niches or applicability to customers with limited financial means we explore this apparent paradox using the concept of the eroom effect moore s law backwards i e where improved price performance due to technological advances are outweighed by increasing costs of regulatory approval and other commercialization costs we illustrate this phenomenon with two cases of publically funded institutes one developing transgenic cotton and the other lignin transformation technology that can replace petroleum based feedstocks in a number of industrial applications we discuss the unintended consequences of the eroom effect and conclude with implications for industry policy and ngos

mapping technological trajectories of the green revolution and the gene revolution from modernization to globalization abstract the dynamics of technology development along the technological trajectories of the green revolution and the gene revolution could be explicated by the social morphologies of modernization and globalization the green revolution was shaped by the exigencies of modernization while the gene revolution is being shaped by the imperatives of neo liberal economic globalization innovation development and diffusion of technologies followed different trajectories in these two realms because of being part of different innovation systems considerations of private gain and profit in the form of high returns to shareholders of agro biotech corporations of global reach largely determine the dynamics of technological innovation in the gene revolution technology transfer and local adaptive work in the green revolution was carried out in the international public domain with the objective of developing research capacity in post colonial third world agriculture to increase food production to avert hunger led political insurrection during the cold war differentiating these two trajectories is important not only due to the normative implications inherent in comparing the impacts of these two revolutions but also due to the important lessons we learn about how different contexts of innovation in the same technology cluster could evolve into contrasting research policy regimes

portfolio crowding out empirically estimated this paper tests hypotheses regarding the parameters in investors asset demand functions the hypothesis that federal bonds are closer substitutes for equity than for money implies portfolio crowding out by federal borrowing regression studies of asset demand functions have needed to impose prior beliefs to obtain precise and plausible estimates for the parameters this paper uses a mle technique that dominates regression in that it makes full use of the constraint that the parameters are not determined arbitrarily but rather are determined by mean variance optimization on the part of the investor the striking conclusion is that portfolio effects are close to zero

multinational corporations economic and human rights impacts on developing countries a review and research agenda developing countries are attracting a significant portion of global foreign direct investments governments of such countries often compete fiercely for attracting multinational corporations mncs in the expectation of the advantages they will bring to their economies often prioritising economic goals over fundamental human rights for a long time economists have analysed the economic impacts of mncs while a parallel strand of work in political science business ethics and international law investigates the repercussions of mnc operations on human rights despite the significant relatedness and complementarities these two bodies of literature have so far poorly interacted this paper addresses this limitation and systematically analyses and integrates existing micro level empirical evidence on the economic and human rights impacts of mncs on developing countries it provides a critical analysis of what is known and highlights what we do not know about the factors that mediate the positive and or negative impacts of mnc operations on host developing countries based on a critical analysis of the literature it discusses avenues for future research in this field and sets the grounds for a new interdisciplinary research agenda on this subject

social exclusion and transgenic technology the case of brazilian agriculture many argue that transgenic technology will have wide ranging implications for farmers in developing nations a key concern is that competencies may be destroyed by predominantly foreign multinational transgenic technologies exacerbating problems of social exclusion in the case of subsistence farmers conversely those that fail to adopt the technology may become uncompetitive particularly in commodity based export markets drawing on interview data conducted in brazil and supporting data collected in north america europe and china we found that the impact of transgenic technology varies it has less impact on farmers that adapt the products to their crop systems and environment and greater negative implications for less formally educated subsistence farmers in consequence of both complexity and compatibility earlier attempts at industrializing agriculture through technological innovation led to vastly improved agricultural output and exports but the benefits of productivity was not equitably distributed d lee 2005 american journal of agricultural economics 87 5 1325 1334 nor was it designed to meet specific local environmental and socioeconomic farmer conditions exacerbating social exclusion multinationals attempting to introduce transgenic technology without considering the broader social and ethical implications will invite resistance we discuss the implications for policy makers multinationals and small scale farmers

auditor reputation the impact of critical reports issued by government inspectors in recent years u k department of trade investigations into the affairs of a specific company have sometimes been critical of the work done by its auditors and reporting accountants this article assesses the impact of this criticism on the auditor s reputation in particular it examines the stock price performance of the auditor s listed clients the results show a small wealth loss for the audit clients the article also examines the impact of the department of trade criticism on an audit firm s number of listed clients and its future audit fees compared to a control group the criticized auditors appear to suffer a small loss in market share based on number of listed clients and on audit fees the evidence suggests that criticized auditors incurred economic losses from the damage to their reputations this is consistent with models of reputation advanced in the industrial organization literature

do asset demand functions optimize over the mean and variance of real returns a six currency test abstract international asset demands are functions of expected returns optimal portfolio theory tells us that the coefficients in this relationship depend on the variance covariance matrix of real returns but previous estimates of the optimal portfolio 1 assume expected returns constant and 2 are not set up to test the hypothesis of mean variance optimization we use maximum likelihood estimation to impose a constraint between the coefficients and the error variance covariance matrix for a portfolio of six currencies we are able statistically to reject the constraint evidently investors are either not sophisticated enough to maximize a function of the mean and variance of end of period wealth or else are too sophisticated to do so

dynamic portfolio adjustment and capital controls a euler equation approach we present a multiasset dynamic portfolio balance model that is based on the maximization of an intertemporal utility function in consumption when investors operate under uncertainty quadratic adjustment costs and capital market regulations we estimate the model s structural parameters on quarterly portfolio data of the german private sector asset demand is insensitive to return changes although the coefficients are significant adjustment costs are low but highly significant giving rise to moderate lags of adjustment still existing capital controls and adjustment costs cannot explain the currently observed home bias in the portfolio overall our results imply a strong rejection of the portfolio model

non marketable assets and households portfolio choices a case study of italy abstract this paper analyzes the determinants of aggregate households portfolio choices conditional on those components of wealth which can be regarded as highly or totally illiquid because of the existence of substantial transaction costs and or institutional constraints on agents behaviour the empirical analysis broadly confirms the importance of the above mentioned institutional aspects in the allocation of financial wealth and provides the means for addressing some interesting questions regarding the behavior of portfolio holders in financial markets in particular it is shown that the presence of non tradable assets changes the risk premia on marketable assets hence in cases such as the italian one where the state is both the issuer of government securities and the collector of social security funds the positive correlation due to a common default risk between returns on government securities and on non marketable assets could lead to a higher cost of public debt financing

regulatory sanctions on independent directors and their consequences to the director labor market evidence from china we investigate the regulatory sanctions imposed on independent directors for their firms financial frauds in china these regulatory sanctions are prima facie evidence of significant lapses in business ethics during the period 2003 2010 302 person time independent directors were penalized by the regulator the china securities regulatory commission the csrc and the two stock exchanges we find that the independent directors with accounting experiences are more likely to be penalized by the csrc though they do not suffer more severe penalties than do the other sanctioned independent directors we also find that independent directors suffer less severe penalties than do the insider directors these results are consistent with the hypothesis that the sanctions on independent directors are tied to their assumed ethical and legal responsibilities following a regulatory sanction penalized independent directors experience a significant decline in the number of other board seats held however they can gain board seats in better quality firms we find that interlocked firms that share penalized independent directors with the fraud firm do not suffer from a valuation decline overall our results suggest that regulatory sanctions have not triggered further sanctions on the penalized directors in the labor market but they have instead created a disincentive for these directors to serve on the company boards of high risk firms

managers earnings forecasts and intra industry information transfers abstract the effect that voluntarily disclosed managers earnings forecasts have on the security prices of the announcing firms and other firms in the same industry is examined the results are consistent with information content in managers forecasts and with information transfer between forecast firms and other firms in the industry these inferences are drawn from firms abnormal returns computed from single and two index pricing models where the latter includes market and industry indexes interestingly while a positive information transfer is evident with market model residuals once industry cross sectional covariation in firms returns is removed no directional relation is apparent

the econometric analysis of models with risk terms summary in this paper we have attempted to provide an integrated approach to the estimation of models with risk terms it was argued that there exist orthogonality conditions between variables in the information set and higher order moments of the unanticipated variable density these could be exploited to provide consistent estimators of the parameters associated with the risk term specifically it was recommended that an iv estimator should be applied with instruments constructed from the information set four existing methods commonly used to estimate models with risk terms are examined and applications of the techniques are made to the estimation of the risk term in the us c exchange market and the effects of price uncertainty upon production

do excess holding period returns depend on the composition of outstanding federal debt the relationship between the composition of outstanding federal debt and the term structure of interest rates has been a much studied and debated subject this note examines the relationship between the excess holding period returns and the composition of debt over the post accord period the evidence fails to support a link between debt composition and excess holding period returns copyright 1996 by ohio state university press

monitor objectivity with important clients evidence from auditor opinions around the world we examine whether monitors are likely to compromise their monitoring objectivity in the face of economically important clients in international business settings in the context of external auditing and assurance services we measure monitor objectivity by whether auditors are more or less likely to issue to their important clients modified audit opinions that is audit opinions provided to outside investors about the firm that demotes explicit areas of concern using a large cross country sample we document that auditors are more likely to issue modified opinions to their economically important clients relative to other clients furthermore we find that this association is stronger 1 for big n auditors 2 for multinational audit clients and 3 in countries with stronger legal regimes these results suggest that monitors prioritize the protection of their reputation over lucrative economic relationships and such information certification function is more pronounced for international auditors multinational client firms and in strong legal regimes

risk versus return in the substitutability of debt and equity securities abstract this paper addresses the empirical issue of whether financial assets held by the u s household sector especially debt and equity are substitutes or complements and what if any are the magnitudes of the relationships using a flexible functional form portfolio optimization framework together with asset holdings and returns data and a rolling sample var expectation model we estimate asset demand elasticities with respect to expected returns variance and covariance of returns in general we find the elasticities to be significantly different from zero the results also indicate that debt and equity are substitutes public policy implications are drawn from the results

the intra industry effects of going private transactions we demonstrate that bids to take firms private generate significantly positive valuation effects for industry rivals of target firms these valuation effects cannot reflect either synergy or monopoly since no consolidation of operating firms is involved in such transactions participation by buyout specialists in the bid does not significantly affect these gains bids by outsiders and bids by incumbent managers generate similar valuation effects for industry rivals the effect on share prices of industry rivals is inversely related to the capitalized values of rival firms relative to the target firm we also report valuation effects for target firms we examine the implications of going private bids for the valuation of horizontal rivals of target firms we hypothesize that going private transactions reflect in part private information held by the bidder about the target firm we argue that if the financial market perceives that elements of this private information are industry wide rather than firm specific the value of the target firm s horizontal rivals should change in response to the goingprivate bid announcement 1 unlike interfirm mergers and acquisitions going private transactions do not involve a consolidation of separate operating firms consequently changes in the value of rival firms induced by goingprivate bids are due neither to the demonstration of synergies associated with a consolidation of operating firms nor to the effects of induced monopoly or collusion 2 we also report valuation effects on target firms we find that announcements of going private bids generate statistically significant positive intra industry effects industry rivals of targets of goingprivate bids receive a positive 2 day average excess return of 1 32 which is statistically significant the average 2 day excess return to target firms is 17 35 and is statistically significant we test whether participation of

the effect of three mile island on electric utility stock prices a note the impact of events on the time series properties of common stock returns has been the subject of numerous articles in the finance literature most studies have shown that capital markets are highly efficient in the sense that prices quickly adjust to publicly available information as investors act to receive a return commensurate with the level of perceived risk this note examines the effect on the stock returns of public utility firms of the three mile island tmi nuclear accident in stock valuation models based on investor rationality permanent price declines are brought about either by a decline in expected cash flows or by an increase in the rate used to discount future cash flows such a nuclear accident may directly affect investors perceptions of both the expected cash flows of utilities and their risk these future cash flows are affected because a nuclear accident may cause additional costs due to extended shutdowns or abandonment of nuclear plants expenses of responding to a nuclear accident and costs of purchasing replacement power the response of utility returns to tmi is analyzed at three levels first the risk adjusted returns for the utility experiencing the nuclear accident general public utilities gpu are measured over monthly time periods surrounding tmi the same analysis is performed on an aggregate sample of electric utility firms to assess the direction and magnitude of tmi s impact on other firms in the industry lastly the sample is divided into utilities with significant nuclear generating capacity at the time of tmi and utilities with no nuclear generating capacity so that the differential impact of the nuclear accident on nuclear and non nuclear public utilities may be assessed both a single and two index market model are used to estimate risk adjusted returns the latter index model includes an interest rate index as well as an equity market index

a note on reit bankruptcy and intraindustry information transfers an empirical analysis abstract this paper examines the capital market response to the bankruptcy of residential resources res res a real estate investment trust reit we find a significant event day value decline for a broad portfolio of reits reits whose portfolios are most similar to res res experienced both a significant value decline and an increase in bankruptcy risk on the event day reits with dissimilar portfolios experienced neither of these effects among the reits with similar portfolios to res res leverage ratios explain 84 of the event day value declines our findings suggest that ignoring intraindustry firm differences can lead to spurious conclusions

recent estimates of time variation in the conditional variance and in the exchange risk premium abstract the optimal diversification model of investors portfolio behavior can give a linear relationship between the exchange risk premium and the conditional exchange rate variance this note surveys recent empirical work that allows the conditional variance itself and therefore the risk premium to vary over time in particular it examines the implications of recent empirical estimates for earlier arguments based on the assumption that the conditional variance was constant over time that the exchange risk premium had to be small in magnitude and variability

estimation of relative risk aversion across time abstractthis article examines relative risk aversion in the framework of a three moment asset pricing model that accounts for skewness accounting for skewness in calculating risk aversion gives a more accurate series of estimates of risk aversion and helps to reconcile the wide disparity in risk coefficients found in past literature risk aversion coefficients are calculated from 1926 to 2014 using stock market returns this procedure results in a time series of data that can be related to other variables such as real interest rates and changes in demand for various asset classes

why do we reject the mean variance model a two stage test procedure for the static mean variance portfolio model is presented which focuses on increasingly restrictive versions of the general model it also delivers clues to the probable cause of rejection the procedure is applied to quarterly data for german private net wealth the mean variance restrictions are strongly rejected because the data reject any positive semi definite link between returns and asset holdings this suggests that the failure of the model is not primarily caused by neglect of the time variation of conditional covanances

intra industry information transfers associated with earnings releases abstract the impact that a firm s earnings releases have on the stock prices of other firms in its industry is examined for an identifiable sub set of firms the results are consistent with a significant information transfer occurring between the earnings release firm and the other firms in its industry this subset is identified by examining the impact of the release on the stock price of the announcing firm the magnitude of this impact is more significant for a sample of firms which have a larger percentage of their revenues in the same line of business as the earnings release firm vis a vis a sample with a lower percentage of their revenues from the same line of business alternative interpretations of the empirical results are also discussed the research findings have implications for information content and market efficiency research and for research on policy issues associated with disclosure regulation

the incidence of regulatory rents in the motor carrier industry this article focuses on two questions in the debate over motor carrier regulation first did regulation create eliminate or have no effect on monopoly rents in the trucking industry second ifthere were rents what was their incidence were they received by owners oftrucking firms dissipated through higher costs or captured by the teamsters union data on share price responses to deregulation announcements reveal declines in expected profits of 8 19 of totalfirm value this suggests that regulation created monopoly profits and indicates that at least some of these rents accrued to owners of trucking firms firms responses to regulatory change are modelled as functions of company s operating characteristics and measures of unionization operating efficiency and service characteristics are shown to affect the impact of deregulation on share values

sustainable development and entrepreneurship past contributions and future directions this article discusses the emerging research concerned with sustainable development and entrepreneurship which is the focus of this special issue of the journal of business venturing entrepreneurship has been recognized as a major conduit for sustainable products and processes and new ventures are being held up as a panacea for many social and environmental concerns however there remains considerable uncertainty regarding the nature of entrepreneurship s role and how it may unfold we begin with an overview of sustainable development and the role of entrepreneurship and outline recent contributions exploring this role we then summarize the papers presented in this special issue and conclude with suggestions for further research

intra industry information releases a recursive systems approach abstract this paper investigates the extent of intra industry information transfers associated with the half yearly earnings announcements of a sample of australian firms the omitted factor interpretation of foster s 1981 results is examined using a recursive systems specification of the return generating process to model extra market return covariation in cross section although some aspects of the results do appear sensitive to the alternative methodologies the overall conclusion is consistent with foster 1981 and supports the existence of intra industry information transfers associated with firms earnings releases

differential intra industry information transfer associated with management earnings forecasts abstract this study proposes that the amount of information about one firm conveyed by management forecasts of another firm in the same industry depends on the earnings covariance between the two firms and the forecast firm s earnings variance the covariance reflects the competitive relation between the firms and the variance represents noise contained in forecasts when both variance and covariance are included in regressions nonforecast firms abnormal returns are associated with forecast firms abnormal returns when they are excluded no such association is observed the results are similar but much weaker when the independent variable is unexpected management forecasts

reinventing strategies for emerging markets beyond the transnational model with established markets becoming saturated multinational corporations mncs have turned increasingly to emerging markets ems in the developing world such em strategies have been targeted almost exclusively at the wealthy elite at the top of the economic pyramid recently however a number of mncs have launched new initiatives that explore the untapped market potential at the base of the economic pyramid the largest and fastest growing segment of the world s population reaching the four billion people in these markets poses both tremendous opportunities and unique challenges to mncs as conventional wisdom about mnc global capabilities and subsidiary strategy in ems may not be appropriate how mncs can successfully enter these low income markets has not been effectively addressed in the literatures on global and em strategies an exploratory analysis involving interviews with mnc managers original case studies and archival material indicates that the transnational model of national responsiveness global efficiency and worldwide learning may not be sufficient results suggest that the success of initiatives targeting low income markets is enhanced by recognizing that western style patterns of economic development may not occur in these business environments business strategies that rely on leveraging the strengths of the existing market environment outperform those that focus on overcoming weaknesses these strategies include developing relationships with non traditional partners co inventing custom solutions and building local capacity together these successful strategies suggest the importance of mncs developing a global capability in social embeddedness

optimal funding rules abstract the operation of automatic fiscal stabilisers may prevent interest rates from falling during times of recession while they may lower interest rates during recovery thereby exacerbating the private sector business cycle we demonstrate that the government funding authority may devise rules for debt issuance which minimise the variance of the government s overall funding requirement this is done by switching issuance between different debt instruments in such a way that interest and redemption payments counteract the cycle in the underlying funding requirement thereby removing any autocorrelation in the net funding requirement we illustrate the application of such a funding rule to the borrowing requirement of the united kingdom government this has the effect of smoothing out the borrowing requirement over the business cycle