acquisitions and investment we derive a simple theoretical framework in which acquisitions are treated as an alternative way of obtaining capital goods our framework predicts that both investment and acquisitions are positively related to a firm s shadow value of capital we transform our theoretical specification into an econometric model which we then estimate using a long panel data set spanning 503 us firms over 15 consecutive years our results indicate that an increase in the shadow value of capital has approximately the same proportionate effect on the level of acquisitions as it does on investment this result proves to be robust to a variety of alternative specifications recent years have witnessed a dramatic increase in the number of corporate takeovers this tide of activity raises a number of questions about the causes and consequences of acquisitions what effects do takeovers have on research and development spending do takeovers reduce employment how important are tax considerations in motivating acquisitions do management objectives and or the availability of free cash flow play a role in acquisitions although these questions have been addressed in previous research no specific optimizing model has been put forward to explain the fundamental nature of the acquisition decision in this paper we propose such a model when a firm makes an acquisition it obtains assets in this way acquisitions and investment are similar activities which one might expect to be guided at least to a substantial extent by similar economic principles in this paper we specify and estimate a simple model that explicitly links a firm s acquisition activities to its investment choices the only unusual feature of this model is that these goods can be either purchased directly investment or obtained by taking over another firm acquisitions our model is based on the firm s intertemporal optimization problem under what are with this one exception standard assumptions our specification yields a pair of equations in which a firm s choices regarding acquisitions and investment are jointly determined and are influenced by the shadow value of capital as in many models of investment we assume that firms face convex costs of adjusting their capital stocks consequently the shadow value of capital may exceed its replacement cost firms for which the shadow value of capital is high relative to its purchase price will have an incentive to make relatively large capital purchases in relation to their existing capital stock under standard assumptions the shadow value of capital is reflected in the firm s stock market

a stylized model of home buyers and bankers behaviours during the 2007 2009 us subprime mortgage crisis a predatory perspective abstractwe examine the behaviour of market agents during the years leading to the 2008 us subprime mortgage crisis using a stylized capital asset pricing model model in our study an average investor eager to make money by flipping houses meets a banker who offers him subprime mortgage deals we refer to recent research that shows the mechanics of the psychological and behavioural components of these two market agents in particular much in line with the famous stanford experiment it is assumed that investors adopt a predator or a prey position our analysis shows that given a historical tendency towards financial predatory acts on the part of market agents including buyers government regulations should be adapted and strengthened to face this dooming reality

the dynamics of real estate prices institute of university of i business and v california at i economic research berkeley fisher center for real estate and urban economics p working paper series working paper no 88 151 the dynamics of real estate prices by these papers are preliminary in nature their purpose is to i e z i d 2f iz e ey bradford case are nottobccited ortluotedin john mq quigley any publication without the ex press permission of the author walter a haas school of business

international evidence on investment and fundamentals abstract if a firm s costs of installing capital are not quadratic then its optimal investment is not a linear function of fundamentals such as the returns and costs of capital this study specifies a model in which a firm may face fixed linear and convex costs of investing and estimates the resulting investment function using firm level data from 11 countries the evidence suggests important nonlinearities consistent with the presence of fixed or other non quadratic costs in the relationship between investment and fundamentals for most countries these findings are statistically signficant at the level of the firm and economically significant when aggregated by country

a flexible specification of adjustment costs in dynamic factor demand models this paper proposes a flexible form of adjustment cost function an empirical illustration shows that the flexible form can detect both convex and non convex adjustment costs furthermore the flex

capacity investment and market power in the economic value of energy firms regulation of energy firms faces the complex problem of balancing private earning a fair rate of return on investment and public assure safe and reliable supply of energy at the lowest possible costs goals tobin s q is a forward looking indicator on investment opportunities and on market power of firms that energy regulators can use for more effective regulation this paper presents the empirical evidence on the determinants of differences in observed values of tobin s q for a sample of large listed energy firms from 10 different countries in the period 2000 2006 we find that adjustment costs represent around sixty percent of the difference between economic and book value of the assets for the representative firm while rents from market power represent the other forty percent therefore across countries there is room for regulatory actions aiming at reducing energy prices but less than what may be inferred from the observed average q values

why do investment euler equations fail this article isolates sources of misspecification in neoclassical investment euler equations without ad hoc alterations of the basic model first allowing for nonlinear marginal investment adjustment costs improves model performance slightly some further improvement results from isolating firms whose optimality conditions hold even in the presence of fixed costs of adjustment or costly reversibility finally i identify which instruments contribute to model failure via standard gmm based tests and also via the empirical likelihood estimator of imbens which allows testing overidentifying restrictions individually both methods show that financial instruments contribute to rejection of the overidentifying restrictions for all firms however only the empirical likelihood estimator shows that they are a source of failure for firms that attain an interior optimum

news shocks in the data olympic games and their macroeconomic effects we examine the macroeconomic effects of bidding for the olympic games using panel data for 188 countries during the period 1950 2009 our findings confirm that economies react to news shocks investment consumption and output significantly increase 9 to 7 years before the actual event in bidding countries hosting countries also experience significant increases in investment consumption and output 5 to 2 years before the hosting of the games mapping the olympics into a macroeconomic model we show that we can match our empirical findings if we assume that an olympic bid represents news about increases in government investment

the stock market and consumer confidence european evidence this paper studies the short run relationship between stock market developments and consumer confidence in eleven european countries over the years 1986 2001 we find that stock returns and changes in sentiment are positively correlated for nine countries with germany as the main exception moreover stock returns generally granger cause consumer confidence at very short horizons two weeks to one month but not vice versa the stock market confidence relationship is driven by expectations about economy wide conditions rather than personal finances this suggests that the confidence channel is not part of the conventional wealth effect but a separate transmission channel

how does a new sports stadium affect housing values the case of fedex field this study investigates how the construction of a sports stadium affects residential housing values hedonic analyses are conducted to assess the price differentials between housing units in close proximity to fedex field home of the washington redskins and comparable units away from it using a difference in difference approach the study finds that properties near fedex field sold at a discount however this price differential was narrowed after the completion of the stadium contrary to neighborhood activists concern that sports venues adversely affect property values the findings of this study indicate that a new stadium improves housing values in the surrounding area

tax adjusted q model with intangible assets theory and evidence from temporary investment tax incentives we propose a tax adjusted q model with physical and intangible assets and estimate the effect of bonus depreciation in the united states in the early 2000s we find that investment responds moderately to tax incentives but allowing for heterogeneity reveals that intangible intensive firms respond more than physical intensive firms and that this difference is accentuated among large firms accounting for intangible assets increases the estimated total investment response from 3 7 to 14 3 of aggregate investment in 2000 among the largest 500 firms our results suggest that understanding the behavior of large and intangible intensive firms matters for investment policy

do adjustment costs explain investment cash flow insensitivity abstract in this paper i explain two puzzles that have been observed in firm level data first firms that display a high sensitivity of investment to cash flow commonly believed to be an indicator of liquidity constraints usually have large unutilized lines of credit which presumably could be used to overcome the shortage of funds second firms that are perceived to be extremely liquidity constrained actually show very little sensitivity of investment to cash flow i show how a dynamic model of firm investment with liquidity constraints and non convex costs of adjustment of capital can explain these facts these two features together imply that firms need to have a certain threshold level of financial resources before they can afford to increase investment once they cross this threshold firms investment will be positively correlated with their financial resources until they reach their desired level of capital stock however even if investment is sensitive to cash flow firms may borrow below their credit limit to guard against future bankruptcy or binding liquidity constraints

non convexities in the adjustment of different capital inputs a firm level investigation recent developments in investment research have highlighted the importance of non convexities and irreversibilities in firms adjustment of quasi fixed inputs aggregation across capital goods may smooth out the discontinuities associated with the adjustment of individual assets lack of suitable data is one of the reasons why empirical work has typically relied on the assumption of capital homogeneity in this paper we exploit a data set of 1539 italian firms which allows us to disaggregate capital into equipment and structures and purchases and sales of assets we construct measures of fundamental q to capture investment opportunities associated with each asset we uncover the pattern of dynamic adjustment by using non parametric techniques to relate each individual investment to its own fundamental q

linking local business with global growth opportunities the role of infrastructure infrastructure is instrumental when it comes to linking local businesses with their global growth opportunities this paper shows that by making this link the transport network can act as a catalyst for regional economic growth using a novel approach we find that firms in regions with a more developed transport infrastructure are better placed to benefit from positive growth opportunities than those in regions with a less well developed transport network this advantage is most pronounced in times of economic slack making a better transport network a key ingredient for economic recovery it is against this background that the recent slowdown in infrastructure investment in europe is worrisome but it is through this channel among others that the substantial ramp up of activity by the european investment bank is expected to foster growth and enhance competitiveness in europe

another look at the linear q model an empirical analysis of aggregate business capital spending with maintenance expenditures the paper revisits the empirical investment literature which has established that aggregate business fixed investment is not found to be related linearly to marginal or average tobin s q the theoretical background is extended here by developing a supply side model where the depreciation rate of private capital is determined endogenously the firm can either invest in new capital which adds directly to the existing capital stock at the presence of convex adjustment costs or extend the durability of installed capital through maintenance expenditure which affects its depreciation rate the model shows that tobin s q is then a positively related sufficient statistic for both components of aggregate capital expenditures this central implication is tested empirically using aggregate time series survey data from canada on new investment and maintenance expenditures covering the period 1956 93 the estimated relationships produce significant and plausible parameter estimates for the structural parameters of the q model le texte examine la litterature empirique sur l investissement qui a etabli que le niveau d investissement agrege des entreprises en capital fixe n est pas relie de facon lineaire au coefficient moyen ou marginal q de tobin on enrichit l arriere plan theorique en developpant un modele d offre dans lequel le taux de depreciation du capital prive est determine de facon endogene l entreprise peut soit investir dans du capital nouveau ce qui ajoute directement au stock de capital existant soit allonger la vie du capital en place par des depenses de maintenance qui modifient le taux de depreciation le modele montre que le coefficient q de tobin est alors positivement relie aux deux composantes des depenses agregees en capital cette implication importante est mise au test empiriquement en utilisant les series chronologiques en provenance des enquetes de statistiques canada sur les nouveaux investissements et les depenses de maintenance pour la periode 1956 93 les relations estimees produisent des parametres plausibles et significatifs pour les parametres structurels du modele q

functional equivalence between intertemporal and multisectoral investment adjustment costs abstract two types of adjustment cost specifications coexist in macroeconomic models with investment intertemporal adjustment costs which involve a nonlinear substitution between capital and investment in capital accumulation and multisectoral costs which are captured by a nonlinear transformation between consumption and investment this paper demonstrates a functional equivalence between these two specifications one surprising result is that an increase in multisectoral adjustment costs can be equivalent to a decrease in intertemporal adjustment costs depending upon the size of the intertemporal costs we then observe that the functional equivalence implies a problem in identifying the two types of adjustment costs and show ways to solve the problem

working class power capitalist class interests and class compromise this article proposes a general theoretical framework for understanding the concept of class compromise in terms of a reverse j model of the relationship between the associational power of workers and the interests of capitalists increases in working class power adversely affect capitalist class interests until such power crosses some intermediate threshold beyond which further increases in working class power are potentially beneficial to capitalists interests this article argues that the reverse j curve is itself the result of two distinct kinds of effects of workers power on capitalists interests one a negative effect in which workers power undermines the capacity of capitalists to unilaterally make various kinds of decisions and the second a positive effect in which workers power helps capitalists solve the various kinds of collective action problems they face

state infrastructure and productive performance recent research on productivity growth has focused on public infrastructure and its impact on economic growth and productivity the authors construct a model of firms technology and behavior taking advantage of the analytical framework provided in the cost function based applied production theory literature and apply it to state level data for u s manufacturing they find that infrastructure investment provides a significant return to manufacturing firms and augments productivity growth the net benefits of infrastructure investment may or may not be positive depending upon the social costs of infrastructure investment and the relative growth rates of output and infrastructure copyright 1996 by american economic association

differences in beliefs and currency risk premiums this paper studies the importance of heterogeneous beliefs for the dynamics of asset prices we focus on currency markets where the absence of short selling constraints allows us to perform sharper tests of theoretical predictions using a unique data set with detailed information on foreign exchange forecasts we construct an empirical proxy for differences in beliefs we show that this proxy has a strong effect on the implied volatility of currency options beyond the volatility of macroeconomic fundamentals we document that differences in beliefs impact also on the shape of the implied volatility smile on the volatility risk premiums and on future currency returns

investment behavior observable expectations and internal funds we use earnings forecasts from securities analysts to construct a new measure of the neoclassical fundamentals that drive investment spending we find that investment responds significantly to our new measure of fundamentals but is insensitive to cash flow even for firms typically thought to be liquidity constrained these results have two key implications first fundamentals may be more important for investment spending than would be suggested by the results to date from investment q models second the positive cash flow effects obtained in such models may reflect a failure to control properly for fundamentals rather than the presence of financial constraints jel d92 e22

infrastructure investment a review essay economists try not to be faddists but they often cannot help themselves while work on a topic should mirror the prospective importance of the topic that situation seems to occur with disappointing frequency instead the usual pattern is that some reasonably important topic will be totally ignored for the longest time then recognized and then the subject of a flurry of work all out of proportion to its likely long run importance nowhere has this speculative bubble of economic research been more clearly illustrated than with infrastructure investment macroeconomists havelong felt that the stock of public capital is an important factor input in the production of total output macroeconomists have known that u s productivity growth slowed dramatically in about 1973 and macroeconomists should have known that united states investment in public capital has been down since the late 1960s yet analysis of the u s productivity slowdown completely ignored infrastructure investment for the first fifteen years of this slowdown concentrating instead on energy prices social regulation the composition of the work force research and development different rates of obsolescence of the private capital stock and any number of other matters the public capital stock was hardly ever even mentioned as a potential factor in the productivity slowdown aschauer changed all that he wrote a series of papers 1989a 1989b 1989c that put these two movements together econometrically infrastructure investment turned down and aggregate productivity turned down slightly later both in the united states and in some other developed countries his work hit the magic button those who had worried about the productivity puzzle for fifteen years welcomed a new suspect those who were worried about low rates of u s national saving welcomed a new way to make their argument even more forcefully than with official figures on saving and investment which do not count infrastructure investment as investment political liberals and liberal politicians saw a way to rescue government spending and projects from the assaults of reaganism and even a way to avoid oth

market efficiency a theoretical distinction and so what with the aid of some simplifying assumptions the capital asset pricing model comes to dramatic conclusions about practical matters such as how to choose an investment portfolio and how to value financial assets as illustrated in this article when one particular clearly unrealistic capm assumption is replaced by a more real world version some of the dramatic practical conclusions of capm no longer follow this result has implications for financial practice research and pedagogy

factor adjustment spikes and interrelation an empirical investigation we take a descriptive look at interrelated factor demand starting from the observation that adjustment of capital and labor is lumpy we find that the adjustment dynamics of an input factor are affected by large adjustments in the other

a bottleneck capital model of development abstract a simple augmentation of the ramsey cass koopmans growth model allows it to match observed transitions by initially poor economies a high convexity installation cost directly dampens investment demand for a first capital input the resulting scarcity acts as a bottleneck strongly dampening demand for investment in a complementary capital input as well the match to observed transitions holds both for narrow and broad interpretations of capital in either case the bottleneck capital s share of factor income need not be large

investment and time to plan and build a comparison of structures vs equipment in a panel of italian firms time to build models of investment expenditures play an important role in many traditional and modern theories of the business cycle especially for explaining the dynamic propagation of shocks we estimate the structural parameters of a time to build model using annual firm level investment data on equipment and structures for expenditures on equipment we find no evidence of time to build effects beyond one year for expenditures on structures by contrast there is clear evidence of such effects in the range of two to three years the contrast between equipment and structures is intuitively reasonable and consistent with previous results the estimates for structures also indicate that initial period expenditures are low and increase as projects near completion these results provide empirical support for including time to plan effects for investment in structures more generally these results suggest a potential source of specification error for q models of investment and production based asset pricing models that ignore the time required to plan build and install new capital jel d24 g31 c33 c34

did railroad deregulation lead to monopoly pricing an application of q this paper asks whether given that railroads now have almost total freedom to set their rates competition is sufficie nt to keep railroads from making supracompetitive profits previous a ttempts to measure railroads profits rely on accounting measures of the rate of return but recent work raises serious doubts about the a ccuracy of these measures therefore this paper uses tobin s q the r atio of a firm s market value to the replacement cost of its assets the values of q show that railroads are not making supracompetitive p rofits thus there is no justification for increased regulation of ra ilroad rates copyright 1987 by the university of chicago

capital asset prices with and without negative holdings prize lecture to the memory of alfred nobel december 7 1990 this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

internal net worth and the investment process an application to u s agriculture recent models of firm investment decisions stressing informational imperfections in capital markets provide a foundation for interpreting evidence that movements in internal finance can predict investment spending even after one controls for measures of firms investment opportunities while such evidence is suggestive it is often open to other interpretations we examine these models using data on equipment investment in the u s agricultural sector this sector is particularly interesting because it has experienced large fluctuations in net worth and the profitability of investment and reasonable measures of net worth can be constructed our findings provide support for a class of internal funds models of investment under asymmetric information

a portfolio of nobel laureates markowitz miller and sharpe three pioneers of quantitative finance have now been justly honored harry markowitz merton miller and william sharpe received the nobel prize in economic science in 1990 from today s perspective it is hard to understand what finance was like before portfolio theory here i attempt to provide a very brief history of the quantitative revolution in finance drawing upon p bernstein s capital ideas 1992 and accounts of the three nobel laureates

multiple capital inputs q and investment spending despite their explicit treatment of dynamics and solid theoretical basis investment models based on the brainard tobin q have recorded a generally disappointing empirical performance when the q model is expanded to recognize the possibility that the value of the firm depends on two or more capital inputs with differing adjustment cost technologies the econometric equation following from optimizing behavior includes q as well as a set of additional explanatory variables the importance of these omitted variables is assessed and the capital homogeneity assumption for equipment and structures implicit in conventional q models is rejected the multi capital q model is then extended in two ways i adding inventory research and development and labor as quasi fixed factors and ii exploring the sensitivity of the instrumental variables estimates to normalization we conclude that the multi capital q model is a useful extension that overcomes an important omitted variables problem in the conventional q framework

the capital asset pricing model in economic perspective the capital asset pricing model capm is theoretically incomplete in its demand side focus risk averse investors and internally inconsistent homogeneous beliefs is not conclusively supported empirically and yet it legitimizes a notion that investors can earn higher returns by bearing undiversifiable risk our article does not merely extend the capm with more realistic assumptions it completes its original framework by including 1 risk taking investors in the investor population 2 investors who can have heterogeneous expectations or beliefs an overlooked but required condition for the capm to be an internally consistent and meaningful model of competitive financial asset pricing under uncertainty and 3 a positive sloped short run supply curve based on a reasonable interpretation of the nature of financial asset trade upon a complete economic interpretation it is shown that the equilibrium systematic risk rate of return relationship depends on whose aggregate trading activity dominates ri

market power and inflation market power exercised by firms has become central to macroeconomics recent theoretical work highlights the importance of the relation between market power and inflation we examine this relation for individual firms in eleven u s industries our econometric framework exploits restrictions from dynamic theory and information from financial markets to generate quantitative evidence on the responsiveness of market power to inflation we find that inflation usually has a positive effect on market power this relation is heterogeneous across the eleven industries and statistically significant positive relations are concentrated in industries with little market power

structural identification of high and low investment regimes abstract we propose a structural model to investigate the existence and possible differences between low and high regimes of investment expenditures in equipment at the firm level the existence of such differences is predicted by recent theoretical studies of investment behavior stressing the role of asymmetries and non convexities in the adjustment cost technology the structural spike model is estimated for a balanced panel of dutch firms operating in 13 different industrial sectors the flexibility of the structural approach explains why the proposed method outperforms models applying ad hoc spike definitions often encountered in the empirical literature of lumpy investments

what determines the japanese firm investments real or financial in this article i test both the real and the financial frictions in the japanese firm investments using structural approach the real represents the nonconvex capital adjustment costs and the financial means the financing constraints these two factors have been studied for a long time but rarely analysed simultaneously through this analysis i find the following results first both these two factors affect japanese firm investments second convex adjustment costs parameter is estimated at a very small level third this small convex adjustment costs lead to the model introduced in wang and wen 2012 which insists that the firm investments are determined by the upper bound of the borrowing constraints

the philippines roll on roll off policy and its impact on household income abstractour paper captures the immediate impact of the roll on roll off policy that offered an alternative system of inter island transfer within the philippines it provides evidence on the effect

estimating capital asset price indexes this paper introduces an improved procedure for estimating capital asset price indexes we jointly estimate conventional hedonic and repeat sales models via maximum likelihood procedures thereby taking advantage of the unique features of the individual models and using all the data that are available our model captures depreciation within the repeat sales model and accounts for serial correlation in hedonic data the improvement in precision obtained by estimating the joint model is illustrated by smaller standard errors and narrower interval estimates for the resulting price indexes we also carry out a simulation experiment that shows estimation errors significantly smaller using the joint estimation technique than either of the individual models or the gls estimator of case and quigley 1991

dynamic effects of permanent and temporary tax policies in a q model of investment abstract this paper incorporates the tax policy analysis of hall and jorgenson into a dynamic optimizing model with adjustment costs to develop a q model of investment this framework is particularly useful for analyzing the dynamic effects on investment of permanent and temporary changes in tax policy it is shown that contrary to the conventional intertemporal substitution argument a temporary investment tax credit need not be nore expansionary than a permanent investment tax credit the role of depreciation allowances in determining the dynamic response of investment to temporary changes in the tax rate is also investigated

roads to prosperity assessing the link between public capital and productivity does the positive correlation between infrastructure and productivity reflect causation if so in which direction the author finds that when growth in roads the largest component of infrastructure changes productivity growth changes disproportionately in u s industries with more vehicles that vehicle intensive industries benefit more from road building suggests that roads are productive at the margin however road investments do not appear unusually productive intuitively the interstate system was highly productive but a second one would not be road building thus explains much of the productivity slowdown through a one time unrepeatable productivity boost in the 1950s and 1960s

q and the tax bias theory abstract a growing body of literature analyzes the variation in q the ratio of financial market value to asset current replacement cost and makes inferences about attributes such as monopoly power profitability managerial performance etc these studies ignore potential biases embedded in q that result from non neutral tax policies this study examines the association between q and tax biases and establishes that differences in accumulated depreciation tax shields explain significant variation in q the implication that q should be adjusted for tax biases before use in empirical research is examined further adjusting q for tax biases at least with the factors herein leads only to minor changes in econometric analyses

domestic road infrastructure and international trade evidence from turkey poor domestic transportation infrastructure in developing countries is often cited as an important impediment for accessing international markets yet evidence on how transportation infrastructure improvements affect the volume and composition of exports is scarce drawing on the large scale public investment in expressways undertaken in turkey during the 2000s this paper contributes to our understanding of how internal trade costs affect regional exports and specialization two results emerge first we estimate that this road infrastructure project accounts for 15 percent of the export increase from interior regions generating a 10 year discounted stream of additional export revenues that amount to between 9 and 14 percent of the value of the investment second while the exports of all industries within a given region increase in response to improvements in connectivity to the international gateways of the country the magnitude of this increase is larger the more time sensitive an industry is accordingly we also observe an increase in the regional employment and revenue shares of such industries our results support the hypothesis that internal trade costs can be a determinant of international specialization and comparative advantage

irreversible capital and the stock market response to shocks in profitability this paper develops a vintage model of capital accumulation to identify the structural linkage between shocks to input or output prices and a firm s stock market value the model accounts for a substantial part of the sample variation in excess returns thus providing evidence for a systematic link between the stock market valuation of firms and the economic factors that affect their profitability the 1973 74 oil shock is shown to have had a strong impact on excess returns firms whose capital consisted of vintages built when energy was relatively cheap were hit the hardest in value copyright 1997 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

investment in greek manufacturing under irreversibility and uncertainty the message in used capital expenditures this article contributes to the existing literature by showing that uncertainty produces a nonuniform impact to the extent that different types of capital goods exhibit heterogeneous irreversibility which we define as asset specific irreversibility hence asset specific irreversibility is responsible for asymmetries in responses across types of capital goods to uncertainty we also show that for a given type of capital good uncertainty produces a variety of responses across sectors which we define sector specific irreversibility in other words sectoral differences in terms of the ability to substitute a given type of capital with labour introduce a second order effect of uncertainty on investment

the measurement of saving investment and wealth there is probably no concept other than saving for which u s official agencies issue annual estimates that differ by more than a third as they have done for net household saving or for which reputable scholars claim that the correct measure is close to ten times the officially published one yet despite agreement among economists and policymakers on the importance of this measure huge inconsistencies persist contributors to this volume investigate ways to improve aggregate and sectoral saving and investment estimates and analyze microdata from recent household wealth surveys they provide analyses of national income and product account nipa and flow of funds measures and of saving and survey based wealth estimates conceptual and methodological questions are discussed regarding long term trends in the u s wealth inequality age wealth profiles pensions and wealth distribution and biases in inferences about life cycle changes in saving and wealth some new assessments are offered for investment in human and nonhuman capital the government contribution to national wealth nipa personal and corporate saving and banking imputation

employment changes the structure of adjustment costs and plant size abstract in this paper we analyze the pattern of employment adjustment using a rich panel of norwegian plants the data suggest that the frequency of episodes of zero net employment changes is inversely related to plant size we develop and estimate a simple q model of labor demand allowing for the presence of fixed linear and quadratic components of adjustment costs the econometric evidence supports the existence of purely fixed components unrelated to plant size as a result the range of inaction is wider for smaller plants the quadratic component of costs is also always important in most specifications fixed costs are higher for employment contractions the quadratic component is higher during employment contractions compared to expansions for small plants while this is not true for larger plants

tobin s q and financial policy abstract recent research in macroeconomics has emphasized the importance of linking the financial and real sectors and working with optimizing models tobin s q model of investment would appear to provide a framework satisfying these two criteria in contrast to the original presentation of the q model the formal development has not recognized that the firm actively participates in a number of financial markets in this broader context q may be an uninformative and possibly misleading signal for investment expenditures we then endeavor to turn this negative theoretical result to positive advantage in resolving a number of empirical problems with q models

chinese industrial reform accomplishments prospects and implications why has china grown so fast when conditions thought to be necessary for growth were absent nowhere is this dissonance greater than in china s industrial sector which has recorded big gains in output employment and exports in the absence of privatization effective bankruptcy legislation and other policy innovations widely seen as prerequisites for successful reform this essay reviews the accomplishments of chinese industry since the start of reform in 1978 focusing on the internal dynamics of the development process considers the future of partial reform and discusses the implications of china s industrial reform experience

nonlinear response of firm investment to q abstract abel and eberly 1994 study optimal investment behavior in the presence of flow fixed costs proportional costs and convex costs a clear prediction is that investment will alternate between regimes of insensitivity and responsiveness to q separated by unknown threshold levels of q at the firm level we find evidence for different regimes of sensitivity to q but not for a regime of zero sensitivity our finding that investment has a nonlinear relationship to q is important because it implies an elasticity of aggregate investment to q and fundamentals that is high and variable over time

tobin s q investment and the endogenous adjustment of financial structure abstract should q theory be modified to take account of financial structure this paper analyzes a general equilibrium q model where financial structure affects firm value agency costs and taxes combine to yield an interior solution for the endogenous debt equity ratio although q is still a sufficient statistic for investment the endogenous adjustment of financial structure alters the relation between the interest rate and investment in this model an increase in the corporate tax rate could either raise or lower the steady state capital stock furthermore both q and investment could jump in opposite directions to that of their steady state values

zeros and lumps in investment empirical evidence on irreversibilities and nonconvexities the objective of this paper is to investigate if and how capital adjustment departs from the smooth pattern implied by standard model based on convex adjustment costs using norwegian micro data we start by documenting the intermittent and lumpy nature of investment rates we then present two pieces of econometric evidence on these issues first we estimate a discrete hazard model to determine the probability of having an episode of high investment conditional on the length of the interval from the last high investment episode second we estimate a switching regression model that allows for the response of the investment rate to fundamentals to differ across regimes in both cases we investigate the aggregate implications of our results

dynamic factor demands under imperfect competition the greek manufucturing industry 1958 1981 the intertemporal maximization problem of the firm under adjustment costs for its factors of production and imperfect competition in the output market is considered the first order conditions with respect to capital and labour the production function and the demand equation have been jointly estimated using greek manufacturing data and values for the structural parameters have been obtained the estimates are plausible and most of them significant tests of the overidentifying restirctions are unable to reject the overall specification of the model at conventional levels of significance

plant level irreversible investment and equilibrium business cycles this paper evaluates the importance of microeconomic irreversibilities for aggregate dynamics using a real business cycle rbc model characterized by investment irreversibilities at the establishment level the main finding is that investment irreversibilities do not play a significant role in an otherwise standard realbusiness cycle model even though investment irreversibilities are crucial for establishment level dynamics aggregate fluctuations are basically the same under fully flexible or completely irreversible investment jel e22 e32

machine replacement and the business cycle lumps and bumps this paper explores investment fluctuations due to discrete changes in a plant s capital stock the resulting aggregate investment dynamics are surprisingly rich reflecting the interaction between a replacement cycle the cross sectional distribution of the age of the capital stock and an aggregate shock using plant level data lumpy investment is procyclical and more likely for older capital further the predicted path of aggregate investment that neglects vintage effects tracks actual aggregate investment reasonably well however ignoring fluctuations in the cross sectional distribution of investment vintages can yield predictable nontrivial errors in forecasting changes in aggregate investment

is public expenditure productive abstract this paper considers the relationship between aggregate productivity and stock and flow government spending variables the empirical results indicate that i the nonmilitary public capital stock is dramatically more important in determining productivity than is either the flow of nonmilitary or military spending ii military capital bears little relation to productivity and iii a core infrastructure of streets highways airports mass transit sewers water systems etc has most explanatory power for productivity the paper also suggests an important role for the net public capital stock in the productivity slowdown of the last fifteen years

why are population flows so persistent abstract a neoclassical model of local growth is developed by integrating the static equilibrium underlying compensating differential theory as the steady state of a neoclassical growth model numerical results show that even very small frictions to labor and capital mobility along with small changes in local productivity or local quality of life suffice to cause highly persistent population flows wages and house prices in contrast jump most of the way to their new steady state the model suggests that cross sectional regressions of local population growth can help to identify past and present changes in the determinants of representative agent welfare more generally it provides a framework for interpreting observed local growth rates

estimates of the impact of crime risk on property values from megan s laws abstract we estimate the willingness to pay for reductions in crime risk using the location and move in dates of sex offenders we find significant effects of sex offenders locations that are geographically localized house prices within 0 1 miles of a sex offender fall by 4 percent on average we then use this finding to estimate the costs to victims of sexual offenses and find costs of over 1 million per victim far greater than previous estimates however we cannot reject the alternative hypotheses that individuals overestimate risks posed by offenders or that living near an offender poses significant costs exclusive of crime risk jel k42 r23 r31

major league soccer expansion and property values do sports franchises generate amenities or disamenities while amenity effects generated by sports stadiums or facilities have been studied extensively for housing markets there has been significantly less attention focused on team effects generated by

the q theory of investment with many capital goods the q theory of investment which relates investment to the ratio of market to replacement value of capital has attracted considerable attention in a recent series of papers for instance a q variable has been used as an independent variable in empirical investment equations estimated by george von furstenberg 1977 von furstenberg et al 1980 burton malkiel et al 1979 and others these papers however leave somewhat unclear the theoretical rationale for using q as an investment determinant this has motivated work by hiroshi yoshikawa 1980 lawrence summers 1981 michael salinger and summers 1981 and fumio hayashi 1982 who show that under certain conditions the rate of investment of a sharevalue maximizing firm is indeed a function of q this is an important result because it shows that investment equations with q an independent variable are not ad hoc constructions rather they are grounded in a theory of the firm with an appealing behavioral hypothesis viz value maximization an important assumption underlying this research is that capital can be treated as a homogeneous good of course this is an extremely common assumption in the analysis of investment and is not particularly more bothersome in the q theory context than elsewhere nonetheless there are certain situations where it may be desirable or even essential to be able to study investment disaggregated by type of capital good thus the purpose of this paper is to examine whether and how the q theory can be extended to this more general case 1 intuitively one would expect some difficulty with the q theory in the many capitalgood context as already noted by james tobin and william brainard 1977 p 243 and by salinger and summers p 12 one way to see why is to recall the tobin brainard distinction between marginal and average q as hayashi writes

transitional dynamics and economic growth in the neoclassical model neoclassical transitional dynamics are a central element of standard macroeconomic theory quantitative experiments with the fixed savings rate models of the 1960s showed lengthy transitions thus potentially rationalizing sustained differences in growth rates across countries the authors investigate quantitative transitional dynamics in various neoclassical models with intertemporally optimizing households lengthy transitions occur only with very low intertemporal substitution generally when one tries to explain sustained economic growth with transitional dynamics there are extremely counterfactual implications these result from the fact that implied marginal products are extraordinarily high in the early stages of development copyright 1993 by american economic association

transaction costs and asset prices a dynamic equilibrium model in this article we study the effects of transaction costs on asset prices we assume an overlapping generations economy with a riskless liquid bond and many risky stocks carrying proportional transaction costs we obtain stock prices and turnover in closed form surprisingly a stock s price may increase in transaction costs and a more frequently traded stock may be less adversely affected by an increase in transaction costs calculations based on the marginal investor overestimate the effects of transaction costs for realistic parameter values transaction costs have very small effects on stock prices but large effects on turnover

the relation between firm growth and q with multiple capital goods theory and evidence from panel data on japanese firms we derive from a model of investment with multiple capital goods a one to one relation between the growth rate of the capital aggregate and the stock market based q we estimate the growth q relation using a panel of japanese manufacturing firms taking into account the endogeneity of q identification is achieved by combining the theoretical structure of the q model and an assumed serial correlation structure of the technology shock which is the error term in the growth q equation for early years of our sample cash flow has significant explanatory power over and above q the significance of cash flow disappears for more recent years for the heavy industry when japanese capital markets was liberalized the estimated q coefficient implies that the adjustment cost is less than a half of gross profits net of the adjustment cost

a simple time series test of endogenous vs exogenous growth models an application to the united states this paper presents evidence supporting endogenous growth models that emphasize public structural capital the authors apply a simple test of endogenous vs exogenous growth models in exogenous growth economies temporary innovations to policy variables lead only to temporary changes in gnp levels while in endogenous growth economies the innovations can lead to permanent changes in gnp levels of the seven u s policy variables they examine only non military equipment capital and non military structural capital have a statistically and economically significant effect upon long run gnp levels further estimation suggests that the non military equipment capital result is not robust and that several disaggregate components of structural capital contribute significantly copyright 1996 by mit press

liability management of financial intermediaries in a dynamic and uncertain perspective this paper examines the effect of rate uncertainty first for the loan rate alone next for both asset and liability rates on the liability funding decisions of a risk neutral intermediary in this model a la pindyck rates evolve according to stochastic processes convex adjustment costs arise from the dichotomy of existing core deposits and new savings balances and the intermediary s cash flow is embedded into capital market theory then we show that the stationary equilibrium obtains at the intersection of the locus of no change in deposit holdings with the isocline of zero change in savings balances loan rate uncertainty alone shifts the savings isocline outward when marginal adjustment costs are rising at an increasing rate but when asset and liability rates are uncertain their impact on the mean intermediation spread core deposit holdings and adjustment costs depends on whether they are correlated or not

is investment time irreversible some empirical evidence for disaggregated uk manufacturing data it has long been suggested that investment may be time irreversible and consideration of the option value of waiting to invest has aroused renewed interest in this issue this study tests for time irreversibility in uk investment according to disaggregation by type of investment expenditure and across manufacturing sector groupings the test results reported indicate that the irreversibility of investment patterns varies not only from industry to industry but also according to the type of capital being purchased with significant time irreversibility detected in gross fixed capital formation and aggregate vehicles expenditure and industrial sector groupings comprising fuels and oil refining engineering and vehicles and textiles and leather however only in the first and last of these series is time irreversibility attributable to non linearities in the underlying data generating process and consistent with threshold effects which may be associated with s s type models of investment dynamics

how does labor mobility affect income convergence abstract labor mobility is introduced into the neoclassical growth model for a small open economy with capital intensity below its steady state level outmigration directly contributes to faster income convergence but also creates a disincentive for gross capital investment at low relative income levels the latter disincentive effect tends to dominate so that labor mobility can actually slow the speed of income convergence

an intertemporal model of saving and investment this paper characterizes a market economy with infinitely long lived consumers and value maximizing firms which face costs of adjustment for capital the temporary equilibrium of this economy is similar to the short run equilibrium of standard macroeconomic models consumption is a function of wealth investment is related to the value of firms equilibrium between aggregate demand and aggregate supply is achieved by the endogenous adjustment of the sequence of current and future interest rates the dynamic behavior of output consumption and investment in this economy is the same as in an optimal growth model with adjustment costs the paper shows this equivalence and then uses it together with the equivalence of taxes to technological shocks to study the dynamic effects of fiscal policy

monopolistic competition and the q theory of investment abstract in this paper we analyse the implications for q models of investment of replacing the assumption of perfect competition in the output market with the assumption of monopolistic competition the structural investment equation that can be derived in this case has a richer dynamic structure than the conventional one and it contains in addition to present and future q output as an explanatory variable in the applied section we discuss the extent to which monopolistic competition helps in providing a remedy for the empirical weaknesses of q models the estimates are obtained using aggregate data for u k industrial and commercial companies for the period 1951 1979

investment and competition this paper examines how industry structure affects corporate investment patterns real options theory shows that deferring irreversible investment in the face of uncertainty is valuable theory also shows that the value of waiting to invest falls if investment opportunities are contestable consistent with these theories we find that firms in monopolistic industries exhibit lower investment q sensitivity and are slower to invest than firms in competitive industries however we find that investment q sensitivity and investment speed are highest in oligopolistic industries suggesting that the value of investing strategically can outweigh the value of waiting indeed oligopolistic industries experience less entry and more exit than other industries

the governance of financial supervision recent developments this paper examines the evolution of financial supervision as a policy tool over the last three decades with a focus on the issues raised by the global crisis it considers a sample of advanced and emerging economies to discuss the four main questions debated in the literature and addressed in the economic policy arena the architecture of supervision the role of the central bank as supervisor the governance of supervision and financial supervision vs the internationalization of finance our survey finds that on each of these issues theory and practice do not offer clear cut answers and unambiguous optimal solutions at the same time the most promising approach is to tackle financial supervision as a principal agent problem where economics and political economy approaches must be used in combination to improve both positive and normative analyses of supervisory governance