export market performance of oecd countries an empirical examination of the role of cost competitiveness we investigate the relationship between export market shares and relative unit labour costs using a long panel of 12 manufacturing industries across 14 oecd countries we ask how sensitive are export market shares to changes in relative costs and what determines this sensitivity both costs and embodied technology are important but neither can fully explain changing export positions we explore whether residual country specific trends might be linked to deep structural features of economies sensitivity to labour costs is lower in high tech industries and core erm countries industry elasticities have increased especially in industries subject to increasing product market competition

environmental regulation and u s economic growth in this article we quantify the costs of pollution controls by reporting the results of simulations of the growth of the u s economy with and without regulation for this purpose we have constructed a detailed model of the economy that includes the determinants of long term growth we have also analyzed the interaction between industries in order to capture the full repercussions of environmental regulations however we have not attempted to assess the benefits resulting from a cleaner environment we find that pollution abatement has emerged as a major claimant on the resources of the u s economy the cost of emission controls is more than 10 of the total cost of government purchases of goods and services

total factor carbon emission performance of the chinese transportation industry a bootstrapped non radial malmquist index analysis this paper proposes a non radial malmquist co2 emission performance index nmcpi for measuring dynamic changes in total factor co2 emission performance over time this index enables the consideration of non radial slacks in the conventional malmquist co2 emission index mcpi the nmcpi is calculated based on a non radial directional distance function derived by several data envelopment analysis dea models furthermore nmcpi could be decomposed into an efficiency change ec index and technological change tc index a bootstrapping approach is conducted to introduce statistical inferences into the nmcpi and its decompositions based on the proposed indices the dynamic co2 emission performance change and its decompositions of the chinese regional transportation industry from 2002 to 2010 are investigated the empirical results demonstrate that the total factor carbon emission performance of the transportation industry as a whole decreased by 32 8 over the period and this reduction was primarily caused by technological decline

are experts expectations rational a multicurrency analysis is the exchange rate expectation formation process rational this age old question is looked at with survey data on exchange rate expectations at multiple forecast horizons this helps to circumvent the risk premium issue and isolate the exchange rate expectational rationality factor the econometric procedure used is the phillips hansen fully modified ordinary least squares test this allows one to conduct an unrestricted cointegration analysis and also differentiate between strong and weak forms of rationality to do this separate tests are made of the bivariate two currencies and the multivariate multicurrency systems approach rationality in the exchange rate expectation formation process is not upheld in either the weak or strong form test at any forecast horizon

endogenous political organization and the value of trade agreements abstract in a bargaining model of endogenous protection i introduce fixed costs of political organization that need to be incurred by capitalists prior to actual lobbying unlike maggi and rodriguez clare j pol econ 106 3 1998 575 intersectoral capital mobility is disallowed nevertheless i am still able to obtain their main result that a government with low bargaining power vis a vis the import competing lobby precommits to a free trade agreement further with high fixed organizational costs the government prefers to stay out of such agreements its maximum bargaining power consistent with signing a trade agreement has an inverse v shaped relationship with respect to the size of fixed costs

the trade effects of the eu turkey customs union in the present study we argue that the salient features of both the eu 15 countries and turkey are conducive to making the effects of the 1995 eu turkey customs union asymmetric among the incumbent eu countries in order to support our argument we rely on a model in which trade involves the exchange of vertically differentiated products this model generates the prediction that the more contiguous an incumbent country is to the joining country in terms of technological sophistication the larger will be the crowding out of this country s exports to the other incumbent countries as a result of the cu expansion using a gravity model we estimate the effects of the customs union between turkey and the eu 15 by differentiating between exports from a lower technology eu 15 countries we term this group of countries south to higher technology eu 15 countries the north b north to south c south to turkey d north to turkey and e turkey to eu 15 our econometric results indicate that in contrast to north s exports to the other eu 15 countries which have remained intact the southern countries exports to the other eu 15 countries have declined as a result of the cu moreover the extra penetration of the turkish market by the eu 15 countries has not been more favourable to the southern group

taxing consumption and other sins taxes as their primary tools to collect revenue in the rest of the world governments also use income and payroll taxes but rely much more heavily than does the united states on taxing consumption consumption taxes take many forms including general sales taxes value added taxes and excise taxes on the consumption of specific items including gasoline alcohol tobacco products firearms air travel telephone communication and others the u s government does not use a value added tax making the united states unique among high income countries and a rarity in the larger world as of 2004 at least 134 countries rely on value added taxes as a substantial source of funding value added taxes are sophisticated forms of sales taxes in which taxes are withheld by businesses according to value added at every stage of production american states do impose sales taxes on broad categories of consumer purchases but state governments are considerably smaller than national governments and their sales tax rates are very low compared to the value added tax rates used in the rest of the world the united states also imposes unusually low excise taxes even after controlling for total tax collections which are lower in the united states than they are in most high income countries the deliberate social engineering that underlies the selection of certain commodities for unusually high rates of taxation appeals less to americans than to residents of other countries moreover the sin taxes on

designing economic instruments for the environment in a decentralized fiscal system designing economic instruments for the environment when external effects are important markets will be inefficient and economists have considered several broad classes of economic instruments to correct these inefficiencies however the standard economic analysis has tended to neglect important distinctions and interactions between the geographic scope of pollutants the enforcement authority of various levels of government and the fiscal responsibilities of the levels of government for example externalities generated in a particular local area may be confined to the local area or may spill over to other jurisdictions also local governments may be well informed about how best to regulate or enforce pollution control within their jurisdiction but they may not consider the effects of their actions on other jurisdictions finally the existence of locally generated waste emissions affects the appropriate assignment of both expenditure and tax responsibilities among levels of government the standard analysis therefore focuses mainly upon an aggregate or national perspective it typically ignores the possibility that the externality may be created and addressed by local governments and it does not consider the implications of decentralization for the design of economic instruments targeted at environmental problems this paper examines the implications of decentralization for the design of corrective policies that is how does one design economic instruments in a decentralized fiscal system in which externalities exist at the local level and in which subnational governments have the power to provide local public services as well as to choose tax instruments that can both finance these expenditures and correct the market failures of externalities

taxing variable cost environmental regulation as industrial policy abstract conventional wisdom has it that a country that enacts strict environmental regulations will place its firms at a competitive disadvantage this view has been challenged recently some commentators argue that stricter regulation will enhance domestic competitiveness strict regulations induce innovation we evaluate this argument in a strategic trade model in very special cases a strengthening of regulation may result in a shift of profits from foreign to domestic firms this is not a general result however environmental regulation should of course be imposed to control externalities but it is unlikely that it will serve to generate industrial advantage

the contribution of nonhomothetic preferences to trade abstract this paper estimates the economic significance of preference nonhomotheticity in international trade tastes are assumed to be identical but budget shares depend on per capita income a linear expenditure system is estimated for 34 countries over 11 commodity aggregates a counterfactual exercise is conducted to estimate the volume of trade caused by deviations from homotheticity the results indicate that nonhomothetic preferences may account for as much as one quarter of interindustry trade flows

governance pressures and performance outcomes of sustainable supply chain management an empirical analysis of uk manufacturing industry although sustainable supply chain management sscm has recently received increasing attention among uk manufacturing firms there is a concern as to whether sscm practices are being implemented because they are profitable or only because of governance coercive pressure thus the aims of this paper are twofold first determining the role of governance in the adoption of sscm practices second investigating whether sscm practices can be both environmentally beneficial and commercially viable in light of these issues this paper develops and empirically assesses an integrated model of governance pressures sscm practices performance data was collected from 146 uk manufacturing managers and analysed using the structural equation modelling method exogenous driving forces of governance were found to be precursors to the successful implementation of sscm practices the empirical results further suggest that while the implementation of sustainable supply chain management has a positive effect on environmental performance it does not necessarily lead to improved economic performance as only sustainable procurement was found to have a positive effect on economic performance this paper contributes to the literature by highlighting the role of governance in sscm adoption and performance gains in environmental protection while economic performance is partially compromised the results also provide useful insights for both managers seeking to adopt sustainable practices and policy makers seeking to further promote sustainable supply chain

social cost of environmental quality regulations a general equilibrium analysis the use of cost benefit analysis by federal regulatory agencies has expanded greatly in scope and sophistication unfortunately agencies continue to employ private cost rather than social cost to evaluate environmental quality regulations furthermore general equilibrium impacts and intertemporal effects of regulations are typically not included in the evaluation in this paper we estimate the social cost of environmental quality regulations mandated by the clean air and clean water acts we construct an econometric general equilibrium model of the united states to demonstrate that social cost estimates diverge sharply from private cost estimates we also demonstrate that general equilibrium impacts are significant and pervasive and that intertemporal effects of the regulations heretofore ignored are significant

on the estimation of simultaneous equations error components models with an application to a model of developing country foreign trade summary an empirical balance of payments model involving the demand and supply of imports and exports for 31 developing countries is estimated utilizing panel data over 1964 1987 in order to compute errorcomponents 3sls estimates of this model which requires different instruments for different equations we propose a generalization of the fuller battese transformation to obtain gmm estimates our empirical results suggest that very little of the short run adjustment in external imbalances is likely to be achieved by exchange rate policies and most of the burden must fall on aggregate demand management

what can we learn from the grand policy experiment lessons from so2 allowance trading stable url http links jstor org sici sici 0895 3309 28199822 2912 3a3 3c69 3awcwlft 3e2 0 co 3b2 tthe journal of economic perspectives is currently published by american economic association your use of the jstor archive indicates your acceptance of jstor s terms and conditions of use available athttp www jstor org about terms html jstor s terms and conditions of use provides in part that unless you have obtainedprior permission you may not download an entire issue of a journal or multiple copies of articles and you may use content inthe jstor archive only for your personal non commercial use please contact the publisher regarding any further use of this work publisher contact information may be obtained athttp www jstor org journals aea html each copy of any part of a jstor transmission must contain the same copyright notice that appears on the screen or printedpage of such transmission the jstor archive is a trusted digital repository providing for long term preservation and access to leading academicjournals and scholarly literature from around the world the archive is supported by libraries scholarly societies publishers and foundations it is an initiative of jstor a not for profit organization with a mission to help the scholarly community takeadvantage of advances in technology for more information regarding jstor please contact support jstor org http www jstor orgtue jun 26 16 25 17 2007

the impact of trade liberalisation on exports imports and the balance of payments of developing countries this paper uses panel data and times series cross section analysis to estimate the effect of trade liberalisation on export growth import growth the balance of trade and the balance of payments for a sample of 22 developing countries that have adopted trade liberalisation policies since the mid 1970s we find that liberalisation stimulated export growth but raised import growth by more leading to a worsening of the balance of trade and payments to the extent that this has constrained the growth of output and living standards the findings have important implications for the sequencing and degree of liberalisation

the dual political economy of taxes and tradable permits abstract the widely accepted difference in the political economy of taxes and tradable permits results from overly simple models a more general model shows that the distributional impacts driving the political economy of grandfathered permits can be similar for both policies

tracking global carbon revenues a survey of carbon taxes versus cap and trade in the real world abstract we investigate the current use of public revenues which are generated through both carbon taxes and cap and trade systems more than 28 3 billion in government carbon revenues are currently collected each year in 40 countries and another 16 states or provinces around the world of those revenues 27 7 8 billion are used to subsidize green spending in energy efficiency or renewable energy 26 7 4 billion go toward state general funds and 36 10 1 billion are returned to corporate or individual taxpayers through paired tax cuts or direct rebates cap and trade systems 6 57 billion in total public revenue earmark a larger share of revenues for green spending 70 while carbon tax systems 21 7 billion more commonly refund revenues or otherwise direct them towards government general funds 72 of revenues drawing from an empirical dataset we also identify various trends in systems use of carbon revenues in terms of the total revenues collected annually per capita in each jurisdiction and offer commensurate qualitative observations on carbon policy design choices

multiple measurements of u s income inequality using 1980 state census data the gini ratio theil index coefficient of variation atkinson measure four values and nelson index as separate measurements of income inequality are regressed with nineteen ses variables traditionally found significant with gini in past research the standard deviation of educational attainment is dominant among all independent variables as the strongest predictor of inequality mean family income dominant in prior research is a distant second in predictiveness more diversity than commonality is evident among the nineteen ses variables as they predict income inequality measured by the eight different techniques copyright 1988 by mit press

robust tests of forward exchange market efficiency with empirical evidence from the 1920s summary this paper provides a robust statistical approach to testing the unbiasedness hypothesis in forward exchange market efficiency studies the methods we use allow us to work explicitly with levels rather than differenced data they are statistically robust to data distributions with heavy tails and they can be applied to data sets where the frequency of observation and the futures maturity do not coincide in addition our methods allow for stochastic trend non stationarity and general forms of serial dependence the methods are applied to daily data of spot exchange rates and forward exchange rates during the 1920s which marked the first episode of a broadly general floating exchange rate system the tail behaviour of the data is analysed using an adaptive data based method for estimating the tail slope of the density the results confirm the need for the use of robust regression methods we find cointegration between the forward rate and spot rate for the four currencies we consider the belgian and french francs the italian lira and the us dollar all measured against the british pound we find support for a stationary risk premium in the case of the belgian franc the italian lira and the us dollar and we find support for the simple market efficiency hypothesis where the forward rate is an unbiased predictor of the future spot rate and there is a zero mean risk premium in the case of the us dollar

using survey data to test standard propositions regarding exchange rate expectations survey data provide a measure of exchange rate expectations superior to the forward rate in that no risk premium interferes we estimate extrapolative adaptive and regressive models of expectations static or random walk expectations and bandwagon expectations are rejected current appreciation generates the expectation of future depreciation because variables other than the contemporaneous spot rate receive weight in comparing expectations to the process governing the spot rate we find statistically significant bias no variable is as ubiquitous in international financial theory and yet as elusive empirically as investors expectations regarding exchange rates in the past expectations have been modeled in an ad hoc way often by using the forward exchange rate there is however a serious problem with using the forward discount as the measure of the expected change in the exchange rate in that the two may not be equal the gap that may separate the forward discount and expected depreciation is generally interpreted as a risk premium most of the large empirical literature testing the unbiasedness of the forward exchange rate for example has found it necessary either arbitrarily to assume away the existence of the risk premium if the aim

import compression and export performance in developing countries the debt crisis that began in 1982 forced a number of developing countries that had relied on external financing into rapid adjustment of their current account positions in many of these countries external adjustment mainly took the form of import reduction or what has been termed import compression to generate trade balance surpluses necessary to service the existing stock of foreign debt while the effects of import compression on consumption and growth have been discussed in the literature there has been little concern expressed with regard to the direct effects such a policy can have on export performance this paper develops a model that takes explicit account of the feedbacks between imports and exports that arise through the effects of imported inputs on exports and the availability of foreign exchange on imports empirical tests of this model for 34 developing countries tend to confirm both these hypotheses these results point clearly for additional foreign financing to reduce the need for import compression and its attendant negative effects on the supply of exports

exploring the role of it for environmental sustainability in china an empirical analysis national natural science foundation of china 71202059 fundamental research funds for the central universities china 2011221016 national social science foundation 10zd047

tightening environmental standards the benefit cost or the no cost paradigm ms ff ichael porter and claas van der linde have written a paper that is interesting and to us at least somewhat astonishing it is a defense of environmental regulation indeed an invitation to more stringent regulation that makes essentially no reference to the social benefits of such regulation this approach contrasts starkly with the methods that economists and other policy analysts have traditionally used when assessing environmental or other regulatory programs the traditional approach consists of comparing the beneficial effects of regulation with the costs that must be borne to secure these benefits for environmental regulation the social benefits include the reductions in morbidity or premature mortality that can accompany cleaner air the enhanced recreational opportunities that can result from water quality improvements the increased land values that might attend the cleanup of a hazardous waste site the enhanced vitality of aquatic ecosystems that might follow reductions in agricultural pesticide use or any of the other potentially significant benefits associated with tighter standards from this benefit cost approach emerges the standard tradeoff discussed in virtually every economics textbook porter and van der linde deny the validity of this approach to the analysis of environmental regulation claiming it to be an artifact of what they see as a static mindset in their view economists have failed to appreciate the capacity of

returns to contrarian investment strategies tests of naive expectations hypotheses abstract this paper examines the ability of naive investor expectations models to explain the higher returns to contrarian investment strategies contrary to lakonishok shleifer and vishny 1994 we find no systematic evidence that stock prices reflect naive extrapolation of past trends in earnings and sales growth building on bauman and dowen 1988 and la porta 1995 however we find that stock prices appear to naively reflect analysts biased forecasts of future earnings growth further we find that naive reliance on analysts forecasts of future earnings growth can explain over half of the higher returns to contrarian investment strategies

toward a new conception of the environment competitiveness relationship accepting a fixed trade off between environmental regulation and competitiveness unnecessarily raises costs and slows down environmental progress studies finding high environmental compliance costs have traditionally focused on static cost impacts ignoring any offsetting productivity benefits from innovation they typically overestimated compliance costs neglected innovation offsets and disregarded the affected industry s initial competitiveness rather than simply adding to cost properly crafted environmental standards can trigger innovation offsets allowing companies to improve their resource productivity shifting the debate from pollution control to pollution prevention was a step forward it is now necessary to make the next step and focus on resource productivity

is there a j curve abstract if the response of the value of the trade balance to movements in the real exchange rate is described by a j curve then a real depreciation initially worsens a balance of trade deficit only improving it over time this paper investigates whether a j curve can be detected in the last twenty five years of american data no statistically reliable evidence of a stable j curve is detected the model is checked extensively to support this finding

assessing whether corporate social responsibility influence corporate value abstractthis study used the corporate social responsibility csr index to gauge the corporate value and social responsibility performance of corporations in taiwan we investigated whether csr influences corporate value and whether the extent of that influence varies with corporate value or time the results indicate that the influence of csr on corporate value does not change with time csr exerts a positive influence on company value and this influence does not change over time however the extent of the influence significantly varies with corporate value when the corporate value of a company is not high investing in csr would only increase costs and fail to effectively increase corporate value in contrast if the corporate value of the company is high investments in csr in this circumstance would instead promote the effective increase of corporate value

the choice between emission taxes and output taxes under imperfect monitoring we consider a regulator s choice between environmentally motivated emissions taxes and output taxes we investigate how the optimal instrument depends on the monitoring cost function the firm s technology and on social preferences regarding output and environmental quality pure emissions taxes are usually not optimal with monitoring costs pure output taxes are optimal under sufficiently high monitoring costs sufficiently limited options for emission reduction by means other than output reduction and sufficiently high substitutability of the output finally conditions for the optimality of mixed taxes are given

the feldstein horioka puzzle revisited a monte carlo study abstract this study revisits the feldstein horioka fh puzzle by employing a variety of asymptotically efficient cointegration estimators and by using the critical values obtained from monte carlo simulations to test the hypothesis of a unit retention coefficient this leads to a lower rejection of the null than standard critical values would have implied despite ample evidence supporting the fh result there appears to be considerable heterogeneity in terms of the savings investment association and only 25 of the 23 oecd countries we examine can be characterised as open economies in the fh sense whether or not one subscribes to the fh interpretation the fh result does not appear to be robust

model of efficient and sustainable improvements in a lean production system through processes of environmental innovation abstract globalization has changed the world as well as how a customer judges the value of a product which has created a new business focus different approaches have been oriented on this direction such as the lean manufacturing system and the concept of sustainability however these two notions are not easy to implement simultaneously besides several authors have declared doubts with respect to reaching this target difficulty persists in identifying the tools required and quantifying the improvements achieved this research develops a general approach based on environmental innovation to help firms harmonize efficiency and sustainability the goal is to add extra value to the product which provides the potential to enhance competitiveness in the 21st century globalized market a case study demonstrates that the costs the incomes the social responsibility and the sustainability can be improved when environmental innovation is applied transforming the traditional production system into a lean system

on the consistency of short run and long run exchange rate expectations abstract this paper examines whether short term exchange rate expectations overreact by comparing them with long term expectations we develop a set of nonlinear restrictions linking expectations at different forecast horizons the restrictions impose consistency a property weaker than rationality we use exchange rate survey data to measure expectations and then test whether consistency holds the data show that a current positive exchange rate shock leads investors to expect a higher long run future spot rate when iterating forward their short term expectations than when thinking directly about the long run in this sense short horizon expectations may overreact to current exchange rate changes

economic prescriptions for environmental problems how the patient followed the doctor s orders o ne of the dangers with ivory tower theorizing is that it is easy to lose sight of the actual set of problems which need to be solved and the range of potential solutions as one who frequently engages in this exercise i can attest to this fact in my view this loss of sight has become increasingly evident in the theoretical structure underlying environmental economics which often emphasizes elegance at the expense of realism in this paper i will argue that both normative and positive theorizing could greatly benefit from a careful examination of the results of recent innovative approaches to environmental management the particular set of policies examined here involves two tools which have received widespread support from the economics community marketable permits and emission charges pigou 1932 dales 1968 kneese and schultze 1975 both tools represent ways to induce businesses to search for lower cost methods of achieving environmental standards they stand in stark contrast to the predominant command and control approach in which a regulator specifies the technology a firm must use to comply with regulations under highly restrictive conditions it can be shown that both of the economic approaches share the desirable feature that any gains in environmental quality will be obtained at the lowest possible cost baumol and oates 1975 until the 1960s these tools only existed on blackboards and in academic journals as products of the fertile imaginations of academics however some countries have recently begun to explore using these tools as part of a broader strategy for managing environmental problems

a framework to compare environmental policies 1 introduction to analyze environmental policy proposals it is important to determine the conditions under which some policies might work better than others when will a pollution tax work better than the sale of permits or some other alternative which is easier to administer or to enforce does one policy apply better to some kinds of pollutants than to others which policy has a greater chance of getting enacted this paper provides a framework to compare alternative policies for each pollutant in each context one policy may be more efficient while others better account for competing objectives like administrative efficiency political feasibility and fairness using this framework the paper will analyze and compare eight types of policies clearly no single policy instrument will work best in all cases under some circumstances command and control cac instruments might be necessary in either of two forms i emission restrictions sometimes called performance standards or ii technology restrictions that might be called design standards if emissions are difficult or impossible to measure for example then the authorities can at least enforce rules that require the proper installation of the required pollution control equipment such as a flue gas desulfurization unit scrubber on every electric power plant or a catalytic converter on every automobile in other cases that are important to identify these cac instruments can be replaced by incentive instruments such as taxes subsidies or permits as suggested by pigou 1932 the pollution problem could be addressed by i taxes on the pollution or ii subsidies to abatement a pigouvian tax applies to the pollutant itself rather than to output at a rate equal to the pollutant s marginal environmental damages med the term incentive instruments includes both the pigouvian tax and the subsidy to abatement and it includes two other policies that involve permits such as those traded by electric utilities under the clean air act amendments of 1990 those permits could be i grandfathered or handed out to existing firms in proportion to past emissions or ii sold at auction by the government a simple analytical model is used below to demonstrate conditions under which the pigouvian tax is equivalent to a government sale of permits much of the environmental economics literature finds that the use of incentives is more cost effective than cac restrictions with imperfect information the regulatory authorities may or may not know what is the cheapest form of abatement technology thus cac regulations may require technology that is more expensive than necessary with a tax or a price per unit of emissions however each firm has incentives to find and to undertake any form of abatement that is cheaper than buying a permit since only the cheapest forms of abatement are undertaken these incentive policies can minimize the total cost of achieving any given level of pollution protection so far this cost effectiveness argument does not distinguish between taxes subsidies permits that are handed out or permits sold at auction yet the handout of permits does not raise any revenue thus a new literature in environmental economics concentrates on a distinction between policies that raise revenue like a tax on pollution or the sale of permits as opposed to polices that do not raise revenue like the handout of permits or a cac restriction on emissions 2 the model below will be used to reflect on this distinction as well so far i have listed two cac policies two pigouvian solutions and two versions of a permit policy yet in some cases with well defined property rights even with pollution coase 1960 shows how the private market can still achieve economic efficiency on its own government does not need to intervene at all except perhaps to help enforce property rights through a court system

costs of a practice based air quality regulation dairy farms in the san joaquin valley facing the difficulty of accurately measuring pollution from agriculture economists have recommended regulatory approaches using proxies such as management practices to reduce agricultural pollution using farm level cost data on a panel of dairy farms i estimate the effects of a practice based air quality regulation for dairy farms in the san joaquin valley in california as opposed to ex ante analyses my econometric results indicate that the air quality regulation has not significantly affected the total costs of milk production estimates also suggest that the regulation might have differential effects on different elements of costs i support the econometric findings with evidence on how dairy farms comply with the regulation calculated adoption rates of different pollution mitigation practices using administrative data reveal that dairy farms have mainly adopted labor intensive practices to comply with the regulation

on the power of dickey fuller tests against fractional alternatives abstract we examine the properties of dickey fuller unit root tests under fractionally integrated alternatives and find that these tests have quite low power

efficiency and formation of expectations evidence from the european investment survey the european commission conducts an annual survey regarding planned and realized business fixed investment across various manufacturing sectors in euroland in this study we investigate the predictive content of survey based expectations on investment in addition we empirically test the rationality of respondents both in a time series as well as in a panel context according to our results based on pooling the data efficiency is rejected since expectations are biased predictors of actual outcomes furthermore expectations revisions are found to be correlated with components of the information set known at the time of decision making finally our results qualify regressive expectations as the mechanism that more adequately describes the formation of expectations

hybrid carbon incentive mechanisms and political acceptability this paper analyses how hybrid systems of carbon taxes and tradeable permits optimize some conflicting dimensions of political acceptability related to the design of these instruments pure systems like taxes without exemptions or auctioned tradeable permits cause problems for political acceptability in open economies due to high overall costs abatement cost plus payments on the tax or auctions for current polluters unfortunately pure systems based on grandfathering of emission rights across the board do not provide a feasible alternative because of monitoring and enforcement problems in contrast consciously designed hybrid systems employ grandfathering of emission rights together with either carbon taxes or auctioned carbon permits in order to overcome acceptability problems of pure systems while leaving incentives to reduce emissions at the margin untouched moreover monitoring and enforcement costs of the hybrid systems are less due to the lower number of participating agents compared with the pure systems while opportunities for cost or burden sharing exist as well

differences in income elasticities and trends in real exchange rates abstract one might expect that differences in income elasticities in trade and or differences in growth rates among countries would give rise to strong secular trends in real exchange rates for example fast growing countries might need steady depreciation to get the world to accept their growing exports in fact however income elasticities are systematically related to growth rates by the 45 degree rule under which fast growing countries appear to face high income elasticities of demand for their exports while having low income elasticities of import demand the net effect of this relationship between elasticities and growth rates is that secular trends in real exchange rates are much smaller than one might otherwise have expected relative ppp holds fairly well this paper documents the existence of a 45 degree rule and suggests an explanation in terms of increasing returns and product differentiation

comparing environmental markets with standards this paper argues that the traditional approach to comparing environmental markets and standards can be enhanced in two ways the first is by providing a more realistic assessment of the impact of various uncertainties on policy outcomes the second is by providing a more realistic assessment of the political constraints that limit the range of feasible policies the analysis examines how the introduction of these enhancements could affect instrument choice comparisons

designing economic instruments for the environment in a decentralized fiscal system when external effects are important markets will be inefficient and economists have considered several broad classes of economic instruments to correct these inefficiencies however the standard economic analysis has tended to neglect important distinctions and interactions between the geographic scope of pollutants the enforcement authority of various levels of government and the fiscal responsibilities of the levels of government for example externalities generated in a particular local area may be confined to the local area or may spill over to other jurisdictions also local governments may be well informed about how best to regulate or enforce pollution control within their jurisdiction but they may not consider the effects of their actions on other jurisdictions finally the existence of locally generated waste emissions affects the appropriate assignment of both expenditure and tax responsibilities among levels of government the standard analysis therefore focuses mainly upon an aggregate or national perspective it typically ignores the possibility that the externality may be created and addressed by local governments and it does not consider the implications of decentralization for the design of economic instruments targeted at environmental problems this paper examines the implications of decentralization for the design of corrective policies that is how does one design economic instruments in a decentralized fiscal system in which externalities exist at the local level and in which subnational governments have the power to provide local public services as well as to choose tax instruments that can both finance these expenditures and correct the market failures of externalities

relative price effects and the demand for imports this paper addresses the issue of data selection in the estimation of import demand functions little attention is generally devoted to the choice of price and activity variables in empirical work yet this question is of crucial importance when estimated elasticities are used for instance to assess the effect of import price changes in a partial equilibrium framework or when elasticity estimates drawn from different sources are compared with each other throughout the paper imports are treated as intermediate products and the relationship between price and quantity elasticities corresponding to various specifications is established for constant and variable returns to scale prix relatifs etfonctions d importations ce m6moire examine le probleme du choix des donnees quand on veut faire la calibration de fonctions d importations le choix des indicateurs de prix et de niveau d activite ne regoit habituellement que peu d attention dans les travaux empiriques cette question est pourtant de grande importance quand on veut utiliser les mesures d elasticit6 qu on en tire pour evaluer les effets d un changement des prix a l importation dans le cadre d un modele d equilibre partiel ou lorsqu on d6sire comparer entre elles des mesures d elasticite construites a partir de sources differentes dans ce m6moire les importations sont considerees comme des biens intermediaires et l on etablit a la fois pour les cas de rendements a 1 echelle constants et variables la relation qui existe entre l lasticite par rapport au prix et l 6lasticite par rapport aux quantites pour un 6ventail de specifications du modele

frontrunners and laggards the strategy of environmental regulation under uncertainty the extant literature on the political economy of environmental regulation does not provide a unified theoretical explanation for three salient stylized facts first companies voluntarily invest to reduce the environmental burden that they cause under threat of regulation second ex ante estimates of the compliance cost tend to be systematically higher than ex post estimates finally regulators use limited information provided by the industry i construct a game theoretic model of environmental regulation under uncertainty with a benevolent regulator in equilibrium companies undertake voluntary action to induce regulation that raises barriers to entry this profit driven behavior is not always socially detrimental however as the regulator obtains a credible commitment to production and a more accurate estimate of the compliance cost additionally the results provide a selection explanation for the mismatch between ex ante and ex post cost estimates if companies condition compliance on the installation cost only low cost companies install in equilibrium the analysis combines regulatory capture with social welfare maximization to explain the curious combination of voluntary action and low ex post compliance cost without serious information collection by the regulator

environmental regulation a value theoretic and class based analysis following a value theoretic and class based approach it is argued in this paper that ecological problems are inseparably linked to the process of extracting surplus value in capitalism and owing to their adverse impacts instigate struggles over the appropriation of nature these struggles fought within and outside the state by competing agents shape environmental regulation in particular taxes permits command and control measures and subsidies affect prices profits and rents and have class and other social implications evidence of current environmental regulation shows that it takes places under the great influence of capitalist concerns

the cost of regulation osha epa and the productivity slowdown the slowdown in productivity growth in the u s economy during the 1970 s has been a matter of great concern to policymakers associated as it is with inflation unemployment and declining real wage growth this paper examines the impact on productivity growth of government regulation specifically worker health and safety regulation by the occupational safety and health administration osha and environmental regulation by the environmental protection agency epa looking at data for 450 manufacturing industries between 1958 and 1978 the study finds a large negative relationship between such regulation and productivity growth using these results about 30 percent of the decline in productivity growth in manufacturing during the 1970 s may be attributed to such regulation several previous studies have looked at the contribution of regulation to the productivity slowdown many of these have inferred that the contribution must be small on the basis of the relatively small amount spent on complying with such regulations edward denison 1979 estimates that only about 16 percent of the productivity slowdown in the 1972 75 period was due to regulation 35 percentage points out of a slowdown of 2 17 percentage points paul portney 1981 notes that little of gnp is spent on pollution control under 2 percent concluding that therefore pollution regulations could have little effect on productivity growth norsworthy et al 1979 also find a small impact of pollution abatement capital expenditures on productivity growth studies based on econometric estimation of the regulation productivity relationship have found a wide range of results gregory christainsen and robert haveman 1981 find regulation reduced labor productivity growth by 27 percentage points using time series data and measures of total federal regulation robert crandall 1981 finds a strong relationship between pollution abatement capital and productivity growth but this relationship disappears when a measure of energy intensity is included robin siegel 1979 observes a significant contribution 5 percentage points from pollution control expenditures to the productivity slowdown for 1965 73 but not for later years finally frank gollop and mark roberts 1983 examine data for a set of electric utilities and find that regulation of emissions had a large impact on total factor productivity growth lowering it for regulated firms by 59 percentage points many other factors might help to explain the productivity slowdown including the rise in energy prices the long and severe recession and declines in research and development expenditures there have been a variety of studies examining the contributions of each factor to the slowdown they generally conclude that many factors contributed to the slowdown but that a sizable fraction of the slowdown remains unexplained by the estimated contributions of all the factors considered

are the costs of proposed environmental regulations overestimated evidence from the cfc phaseout benefit cost and cost effectiveness analysis are often advocated fordecision making about environmental health and safety regulations butthere has been little research evaluating the accuracy of prospectiveestimates of regulatory costs and benefits prospective estimates of themarginal cost of limiting chlorofluorocarbon cfc consumption in theunited states published shortly before and after the september 1987adoption of the montreal protocol are compared with retrospectiveestimates based on realized market prices estimates published beforeinternational regulations were adopted in may 1986 substantiallyoverestimate the marginal costs of limiting cfc 11 and cfc 12consumption but modestly underestimate the costs of limiting cfc 113consumption in contrast estimates published shortly after adoption of theprotocol in august 1988 appear to underestimate the marginal cost oflimiting cfc consumption

extended producer responsibility instruments and innovation in eco design an exploration through a simulation model abstract this paper presents an agent based simulation model that models both economical and physical relations between firms recyclers and consumers this framework allows an investigation into the connection between physical environmental variables waste flows virgin material flows and economic decisions of agents in the product chain i e firms innovation strategies consumers choices and development of recycling activities the paper highlights the value of using agent based modeling as an operational tool to investigate the effect of waste prevention policy on economic and technological decisions of agents we focus on three types of extended producer responsibility epr instruments which are recycling fees tax subsidy and norms the simulation results show that the impact of each instrument depends on the policy design in particular on the level of stringency and on the reward system which is implemented we show that only tax subsidy systems and stringent norms can lead to radical innovations and to significant changes in product designs in the case of tax subsidy the impact relies more on an innovation effect while in the case of norm it mainly relies on a selection effect

issues in the design of environmental excise taxes t ax law has long had environmental consequences although the consequences have often been unintended for example tax provisions passed to assist the timber industry in the 1920s permitted expensing of the costs of reforestation and planting rather than having to depreciate them over a period of time along with capital gains treatment for harvested timber provisions which may have encouraged a more rapid harvest of domestic timberland percentage depletion allowances to assist the oil industry a deduction based on a percentage of the value of oil sold rather than the taxpayer s basis in the oil which became part of the internal revenue code in 1926 arguably have led to exploitation of oil and mineral deposits at a rate greater than the socially optimal rate similarly the purpose of the federal motor fuels tax when expanded in 1956 was to fund highway construction although now it is common to regard it as at least potentially an environmental tax aimed at addressing the externalities caused by automobile use of course these tax provisions were not motivated by environmental concerns the 1970s began to see efforts at environmental tax policy although at the time the focus of the policies more often was energy conservation rather than reduction in pollution between 1978 and 1986 congress provided tax credits for residential energy conservation expenditures in 1978 congress enacted the gas guzzler excise tax an excise tax that varies with the environmental protection agency s fuel economy rating of automobiles it remains in force today congress also made available tax exempt bond finance for pollution control equipment between 1978 and 1986

vertical product differentiation and the import demand function theory and evidence in this paper we use a model of vertical product differentiation to cast doubt on the general validity of the import demand function as specified in macroeconomic models the empirical importance of our theoretical concerns is then established according to our first hypothesis the share of a good s imports in total imports is non increasing in domestic wages if the country has comparative advantage in high quality varieties of this good the second hypothesis states that the share of a good s imports is increasing in non wage domes tic income if the country has comparative advantage in high quality varieties of this good

macro economic and development indexes and iso14001 certificates a cross national analysis abstract environmental management systems emss implemented according to the iso14001 standard have been examined by many authors especially focussing on its impact at the firm level however only a few papers have investigated the impact of iso14001 from a country perspective this paper aims to contribute to bridging this gap the aim is to study the relation between iso14001 growth and the trend in selected macro economic and development indexes by applying the growth mixture model to a panel of 73 countries for the period 1999 2012 we assess the following hypotheses a the increase in numbers of iso14001 certifications corresponds to an increase in economic indexes b the increase in iso14001 corresponds to an increase in development indexes c the trends of iso14001 adoption and macro economic indexes confirm the relationship described by the environmental kuznets curve the results confirm a positive relation among the trends of some variables such as iso14001 and gross domestic product gdp iso14001 and industry value added while no significant results were found when observing the relation between iso14001 and the selected development indexes in addition using the industry added value as the variable to measure economic development our results support the theory of the environmental kuznets curve

rationality of survey data and tests for market efficiency in the foreign exchange markets abstract this paper tests the rational expectations hypothesis reh and the market efficiency hypothesis meh in the foreign exchange markets using survey data on expectations our results show that the spot exchange rates expected exchange rates and the forward rates all follow a random walk process hence the cointegration theory is employed to test the reh and meh all the test statistics support the reh but fail to support the meh we use survey data on expectations to identify the causes behind this failure of the meh jel f31 g14

public preferences for carbon tax attributes the impacts of climate change are already visible throughout the world recognizing the threats posed by climate change the durban platform the 17th session of the conference of parties cop 17 underscores that the global nature of climate change calls for the widest possible cooperation and ambitious action by all countries a crucial starting point for the design of effective and publicly acceptable policies is to explore public preferences for climate policy instruments using a choice experiment this study investigates public preferences for carbon tax attributes in a developing country context the results account for heterogeneity in preferences and show that turkish people prefer a carbon tax with a progressive cost distribution rather than one with a regressive cost distribution the private cost has a negative effect on the probability of choosing the tax earmarking carbon tax revenues increases the public acceptability of the tax moreover there is a preference for a carbon tax that promotes public awareness of climate change

estimating strategic models of international treaty formation this article develops an empirical framework for analysing the timing of international treaties a treaty is modelled as a dynamic game among governments that decide on participation in every period the net benefit of treaty membership increases over time spillovers among members and non members accelerate or delay treaty formation by transforming participation into a strategic complement or substitute respectively the predictions of the model inform the estimation of the structural parameters based on a cross section of treaty ratification dates with this approach i estimate the sign and magnitude of strategic interaction in the ratification of the montreal protocol in the formation of europe s preferential trade agreements and in the growth of germany s network of bilateral investment treaties through a series of counterfactual experiments i explore different mechanisms that give rise to strategic interaction in the formation of these treaties

inequality and the us import demand function in this paper we build a model of trade in vertically differentiated products and find that income inequality can affect the demand for imports even in the presence of homothetic preferences the empirical importance of changes in inequality on the demand for imports is then assessed by examining panel data for 36 developing and developed countries for the 1980 1997 period we find significant evidence supporting our prediction that inequality has a large influence on the demand for imports moreover we find that in line with the predictions of our theoretical model this influence is positive for high income countries countries that produce the high quality variety of the vertically differentiated product and negative for low income countries countries that produce the low quality variety of the vertically differentiated product

inequality nonhomothetic preferences and trade a gravity approach we construct the first direct classification of goods as luxuries or necessities that is compatible with international trade data we then use it to test an idea that has not been tested directly in the literature countries income distributions are important determinants of their import demand and in particular of the difference in their import demands of luxuries versus necessities we interpret this result with the aid of a model in which preferences are nonhomothetic thus relaxing a long held and standard but empirically dubious assumption in the theory of international trade our model is strongly borne out by the results imports of luxuries increase with the importing country s inequality and imports of necessities decrease with it our calculations imply that if income distribution in the united states became as equal as in canada the united states would import about 9 13 fewer luxury goods and 13 19 more necessities

demand and supply factors in the determination of nie exports a simultaneous error correction model for hong kong this paper considers the issue of whether a small developing economy such as hong kong faces a perfectly elastic demand for its exports of manufactured goods we construct a simultaneous demand and supply system which is estimated using full information maximum likelihood methods and which allows us to clearly identify demand and supply factors in determining export volumes and prices our empirical findings differ from previous studies conducted with this data set in that they suggest that even a small dynamic newly industrialized economy such as hong kong may not face infinitely elastic demand for its manufactured goods we also advance some reasons to explain why the small country assumption may not be applicable in the case of most industrialized economies

second best pollution taxes and the structure of preferences we characterize optimal taxes on polluting and nonpolluting goods in ramsey and mirrlees second best environments the polluting good tax differs from the pigouvian tax by ramsey terms in the first and by stiglitz mirrlees plus another adjustment term in the second these terms can be positive negative or zero if preferences are weakly separable in public and private goods with the private good subutility weakly separable in labor and produced goods nonpolluting goods are taxed uniformly and the concept of a tax differential between polluting and nonpolluting goods is well defined the differential is then less than the pigouvian tax in the ramsey framework but it can be greater equal to or smaller than the pigouvian tax in the mirrlees second best in mirrlees second best if preferences are separable in labor supply and other goods the second best tax differential is identical to the pigouvian tax

the role of exchange rates in a popular model of international trade abstract this paper examines the empirical relationship between the real effective exchange rate and the aggregate real trade balance for five major oecd countries in the post bretton woods era a variety of parametric and non parametric techniques are used there is little evidence that the exchange rate significantly affects the trade balance

the potential of environmental regulation to change managerial perception environmental management competitiveness and financial performance abstract this research presents an overview of where the gaps in the literature exist in relation to the link between environmental regulation and proactive environmental management and competitiveness and incorporates them in a whole model different papers have highlighted only partial aspects of these relationships specifically this research evaluates the relationship between managerial perception and the different styles of environmental regulations command and control versus voluntary norms the mediator role of environmental management in the link between environmental regulations and competitiveness the effect of competitiveness on financial performance and the two way relationship between proactive environmental management and financial performance finally this paper uses statistical evidence to test and estimate causal relationships through a structural equation modelling of 208 firms affected by ippc law in spain there is a lack of systematic statistical evidence on this topic in the literature which mainly focuses on case studies the results show that when environmental regulation stems from command and control legislation its influence on managerial perception and proactive environmental management is not significant however when environmental regulation stems from voluntary norms its effects are positive moreover investment in proactive environmental management contributes to increasing the competitiveness of the firm cost and differentiation competitive advantage have a positive impact on financial performance finally the link between proactive environmental management and financial performance may follow different paths 1 neither direct nor single because it can depend on competitive advantage and 2 direct because there is a significant two way relationship between these variables proactive environmental management influences financial performance and financial performance influences proactive environmental management

import competition from developed and developing countries separate demand equations for imports from less developed countries ldcs and imports from developed countries dcs were estimated for each of eleven representative product groups imports were found to compete quite readily with domestically produced goods with plausible own price and cross price elasticities whereas the quantity of each type of import was found to be quite responsive to changes in the price of us home goods each appears to be less sensitive to the price of the alternative import an explanation that is consistent with this observation and that finds support from detailed industry information is that dcs and ldcs supply goods that are at different stages in the product or technology cycle whereas us producers compete in all submarkets this suggests that trade creation rather than trade diversion provides the predominant inroad for ldcs into the us market 25 references 3 tables

expectations and chaotic dynamics empirical evidence on exchange rates abstract the paper investigates the dynamic behavior of exchange rates expectations using four different currencies the test follows developments advanced by fernandez rodriguez et al fernandez rodriguez f sosvilla rivero s andrada felix j 2005 testing chaotic dynamics via lyapunov exponents journal of applied econometrics 20 911 930 the evidence however does not favor the presence of chaotic dynamics in exchange rate expectations

aggregate demand shifts income distribution and the linder hypothesis the intraindustry trade literature emphasizes nonhomothetic preferences and incomes as important determinants of aggregate demand and trade patterns the authors provide evidence for such preferences particularly that the structure of income driven demand shifts is related to indices of linder type product characteristics and that income distribution is a significant factor in determining aggregate expenditures these results imply that as general income levels rise the relative volume of trade in manufactured consumer goods should rise and the total volume of trade should rise independent of changes in the intercountry difference between income levels copyright 1996 by mit press

import demand in heterogeneous panel setting to study the elasticities of import demand function a heterogeneous panel is built with data of 40 countries and using panel unit root tests im et al 1997 and panel cointegration tests pedroni 2004 the model is tested with two previously used activity variables gdp and gdp minus export for a performance comparison to estimate elasticities use is made of two modified panel versions of fmols and dols developed by pedroni 1996 2000 2001 the tests prove that gdp outperforms gdp minus exports as an activity variable in the cointegration context fmols and dols give close results when individual estimates are done when between dimension estimators are used conflicting results are obtained then the sample is split into developed and developing countries and it is shown that income elasticity in developing countries are not different than unity on average and are higher than in developed countries contradicting previous literature results

the impact of economics on environmental policy abstract environmental economists have seen their ideas translated into the rough and tumble policy world for over two decades they have witnessed the application of economic instruments to several environmental issues including preserving wetlands lowering lead levels and curbing acid rain this essay examines the impact of the rise of economics in the policy world on the making of environmental policy i focus on two related but distinct phenomena the increasing interest in the use of incentive based mechanisms such as tradable permits to achieve environmental goals and the increasing interest in the use of analytical tools such as benefit cost analysis in regulatory decision making i argue that economists and economic instruments have had a modest impact on shaping environmental health and safety regulation but that economists will play an increasingly important role in the future although the role of economics is becoming more prominent it does not follow that environmental policy will become more efficient this apparent inconsistency can be explained by the political economy of environmental policy

international investment location decisions abstract in international location tournaments governments compete for foreign investment with tax and other short run incentives such tournaments can be won if agglomeration economies are sufficiently powerful to overcome investors desire to spread investments as a hedge against risk we focus on manufacturing investments by u s multinationals in the 1980s our econometric results suggest that agglomeration economies are indeed the dominant influence on investor calculations paradoxically short run incentives have limited apparent impact on location choice we conclude that high cost tournament play is unnecessary for countries with good infrastructure development specialized input suppliers and an expanding domestic market

comparing specific and ad valorem pigouvian taxes and output quotas when the production or use of a good creates an external cost an unregulated market produces a socially inefficient quantity of output one remedy for this inefficiency is to impose a pigouvian tax equal to the marginal external damage associated with the good in many circumstances privately optimizing agents facing a pigouvian tax make decisions that are consistent with the maximization of social welfare

do capital importing countries pay higher prices for their imports of goods abstract we examine the effects that a country s net capital flows have on the border prices that a country pays for its imports of goods using data from 2000 to 2009 for 11 euro area countries we utilize a pricing to market specification to study exporters pricing behavior to the rest of the countries in the sample at the industry level for 900 goods disseminated at the 4 digit standard international trade classification level this allows us to construct a panel dataset which contains observations across exporters importers industries and time we find a strong positive influence of the importing country s net capital inflows on the border prices of its imports of goods this result is robust across different specifications of the underlying model as well to different sample dis aggregations across types of capital flows product categories and exporters

estimating long run economic equilibria with stochastic trends an asymptotic theory is provided to analyze a menu of currently existing estimators of cointegrated systems we study in detail the single equation ecm seecm approach of hendry our theoretical results lead to prescriptions for empirical work such as specifying seecm s nonlinearly and including lagged equilibrium relationships rather than lagged differences of the dependent variable as covariates simulations support these prescriptions and point to problems of overfitting not encountered in the semiparametric approach of phillips and hansen 1990