the emergence of the biodiesel industry in brazil current figures and future prospects abstract the aim of the present paper is to characterize and analyze the emergence of the biodiesel industry in brazil and provide an assessment of the extent to which the goals established by the national biodiesel production and usage program have been reached in relation to the goal of including biodiesel within the brazilian energy matrix the program can be seen to be responding dynamically and ahead of schedule in 2010 the b5 blend was already part of the diesel consumed in brazil with 81 of the biodiesel coming from soybean oil and 14 from beef tallow by contrast the plans to diversify the feedstocks used to produce biodiesel and improve production in the poorest regions of brazil have failed to prosper regarding the goal of fostering social inclusion by encouraging the participation of family based farming this has been partially achieved finally the goal of cost efficiently producing biodiesel is far from being achieved the economic feasibility of the production and use of biodiesel in brazil can be questioned since it is still strongly supported by tax incentives and production and marketing subsidies

attention misallocation social welfare and policy implications we examine how agents allocate attention between private and public signals to reduce the uncertainty about observation noises when coordination is an important concern in this setting the attention allocation may not be monotone in endowed attention capacity agents may decrease their attention on or even ignore the more accurate signal when capacity increases as a result social welfare may decrease when they have more attention to process information and it can be even higher when agents possess a finite amount of capacity than when they have an infinite amount of capacity we derive sufficient and necessary conditions under which multiple equilibria emerge and study the implications of equilibrium multiplicity for macroeconomic policies

the transmission of trends in retail food and farm prices the food supply system consists of multiple stages of production with prices at each stage coordinating the transformation of farm commodities to final consumer products food and agricultural policies often stem from public concern about the disparate movements of consumer food and farm prices widening spreads between retail food and farm prices and concentration in some industries raise concerns about market power usda early research describes retail to farm price spreads with a single markup rule george and king however gardner demonstrates that a single rule is misleading because price responses to shifts in consumer demand differ from responses to shifts in input supply furthermore price spreads are central to tests of market power market power tests often derive from representative firms profit functions and a model of consumer demand and reduce to tests on conjectural variations parameters in price spread equations such tests are sensitive to restrictions im

social construction of the environment and smallholder farmers participation in low carbon agro industrial crop production contracts in the philippines abstract several studies have suggested that socio economic factors and production site characteristics are primary determinants of farmers participation in low carbon agro industrial biofuels and oil palm production contracts in the philippines many smallholder farmers have expressed their intent to participate in intensive production of biofuel crops and oil palm with state and private organizations others have resisted or remained indifferent this study looks into smallholders social construction of the environment and how this may influence their decisions to participate in such production contracts the study is based on a survey of 462 respondents in eight communities in the province of palawan using regression analysis it illustrates how smallholders sense of place and environmental worldviews together with demographic and socio economic variables play significant roles in their decisions to enter into new biofuels jatropha and oil palm production contracts environmental worldviews are significant when there are strong negative perceptions attached to a particular crop production contract as in the case of oil palm

transparency of information and coordination in economies with investment complementarities how do public and private information affect equilibrium allocations and social welfare in economies with investment complementarities and what is the optimal transparency in the information conveyed for example by economic statistics policy announcements or news in the media we first consider an environment where the complementarities are weak so that the equilibrium is unique no matter the structure of information an increase in the precision of public information may have the perverse effect of increasing aggregate volatility nevertheless as long as there is no value to lotteries welfare unambiguously increases with an increase in either the relative or the absolute precision of public information hence full transparency is optimal this is because more transparency facilitates more effective coordination which is valuable from a social perspective on the other hand when complementarities are strong enough that multiple equilibria are possible more transparency permits the market to coordinate more effectively on either the bad or the good equilibrium in this case constructive ambiguity becomes optimal if there is a high risk that more transparency will lead to coordination failures this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

forecast of biofuel production and consumption in top co2 emitting countries using a novel grey model abstract mounting environmental concerns have given rise to an increasing focus on renewable energies like biofuels in 2018 three countries china the united states and india together emitted almost half 50 3 of the world s co2 emissions billion metric tons the current study aims to forecast biofuels production consumption and self sufficiency in these top co2 emitting countries using a novel grey forecasting model the study improves on an existing grey forecasting model by optimizing the model architecture data accumulation operation and background value generation the proposed forecasting model egm 1 1 is a generalized form of the even form of the grey forecasting model and its relative performance turned out to be generally superior to that of the original model the comparative analyses of the proposed model with two forecasting models revealed that the new model s forecast accuracy is generally better than those of others the study finds achieving self sufficiency in both biofuels fuel ethanol and biodiesel would remain a challenge for china while the united states and india would maintain their self sufficiency in ethanol and biodiesel respectively at least till 2028 the study also argues that biofuel is more likely to be a complementary fuel rather than an alternative fuel the study helps us understand how in the next decade the landscapes of biofuel production and consumption are changing and concludes with significant policy implications

unbundling the biofuel promise querying the ability of liquid biofuels to deliver on socio economic policy expectations abstract while excitement around biofuels initially focused on finding a clean and secure alternative to fossil fuels many other expectations have subsequently been attached to the biofuel boom biofuels are not only expected to mitigate climate change or foster domestic energy security but also to generate employment provide opportunities to smallholders and support decentralized energy systems this paper interrogates the expectations attached to biofuels we begin by examining how policies in consumer and producer countries articulate a series of expectations for biofuels that are bundled with the promise of cleaner energy using the rationales behind these expectations to derive criteria for success we then review evidence from the published literature on biofuel outcomes against these criteria to assess whether the most prevalent assumptions have been met we find that policy expectations for biofuels are often expressed in narrow terms failing to capture important potential impacts for example focusing on new jobs in the formal sector rather than job quality or whether employment offsets livelihood costs associated with biofuel investments some expectations have proven elusive irrespective of the metrics employed for example using biofuels to improve energy access in remote rural areas the paper concludes by discussing implications for policy and practice

brazilian biofuels and social exclusion established and concentrated ethanol versus emerging and dispersed biodiesel increasing interest in biofuels trade between developed and developing countries has spurred worldwide discussions on issues such as subsidies and the food for fuel crisis one issue missing in recent discourse is the pressure exerted on developing countries to adopt large scale mechanized farming practices to increase economic efficiencies such approaches often exclude small scale farmers from participating in the emerging biofuels market thus exacerbating poverty and social exclusion drawing on both qualitative and technical data we discuss such pressures using brazilian ethanol and biodiesel production pressure from international markets to become more economically efficient may contribute towards the erosion of recent schemes to encourage social benefits for small farmers in biodiesel production we conclude with trade and policy implications

notes on farm retail price transmission and marketing margin behavior perfect farm retail price transmission sometimes is taken to mean an elasticity of price transmission ept equal to 1 we show that this definition is inconsistent with gardner s 1975 model we also show that the absolute marketing margin defined as the difference between the retail price and farm price responds differently to shifts in retail demand input supply and technical change in the marketers production function than does the relative marketing margin defined as the ratio of the retail price to the farm price the empirical implications of these results are discussed in some detail

sticky information in general equilibrium this paper develops and analyzes a general equilibrium model with sticky information the only rigidity in goods labor and financial markets is that agents are inattentive sporadically updating their information sets when setting prices wages and consumption after presenting the ingredients of such a model the paper develops an algorithm to solve this class of models and uses it to study the model s dynamic properties it then estimates the parameters of the model using u s data on five key macroeconomic time series it finds that information stickiness is present in all markets and is especially pronounced for consumers and workers variance decompositions show that monetary policy and aggregate demand shocks account for most of the variance of inflation output and hours jel e30 e10

optimal policy intervention and the social value of public information svensson 2006 argues that morris and shin s 2002 analysis is contrary to what is claimed actually pro transparency this paper re examines the issue but with an important modification to the original morris and shin framework recognizing that central banks impact on the economy not only indirectly via their public announcements but also directly through their policy actions we consider the social value of public information in the presence of active policy intervention our results strengthen morris and shin s conclusions considerably in particular we find that public disclosure of the central bank s information is always undesirable

heterogeneous private sector information central bank disclosure and stabilization policy conventional wisdom has it that a central bank that uses an informational advantage to undertake active policy intervention can do as well at least so far as real outcomes are concerned by making its information publicly available and abstaining from stabilization this notion is examined using a framework incorporating heterogeneous private sector information concerning aggregate demand shocks an activist regime in which the central bank exploits its own information to engage in stabilization is found to be unambiguously superior to a noninterventionist regime where the central bank maintains a constant setting of policy but publicly discloses its own information

policy with dispersed information information regarding economic fundamentals is widely dispersed in society is only imperfectly aggregated through prices or other indicators of aggregate activity and cannot be centralized by the government or any other institution in this paper we seek to identify policies that can improve the decentralized use of such dispersed information without requiring the government to observe this information we show that this can be achieved by appropriately designing the contingency of taxation on ex post public information regarding the realized fundamentals and aggregate activity when information is common as in the ramsey literature or when agents have private information only about idiosyncratic shocks as in the mirrlees literature the contingency on fundamentals alone suffices for efficiency when instead agents have private information about aggregate shocks the contingency on aggregate activity is crucial an appropriate combination of the two contingencies permits the government to i dampen the impact of noise and hence reduce non fundamental volatility without also dampening the impact of fundamentals ii induce agents to internalize informational externalities and hence improve the speed of social learning iii restore a certain form of constrained efficiency in the decentralized use of information and iv guarantee that welfare increases with the provision of any additional information jel c72 d62 d82

technical change and model specification u s agricultural production u s agricultural crop and livestock relationships are examined in the context of both duality and time series econometrics based on time series test results cointegrated models are estimated traditional models generally overestimated the precision of statistical relationships and gave a considerable number of spurious results particularly with regard to technical change when time series properties of the data were addressed there was much less evidence of bias in technical change model specification test results were sensitive both to the time series specification of the maintained model and its functional form preferred functional form depended on the choice criterion

outlook on biofuels in future studies a systematic literature review abstract foresight methods are useful for long range planning such as strategic energy management energy policy and renewable and sustainable energy planning to manage uncertainties futures studies may affect the anticipation and speculation of future and emerging technologies in this paper biofuels futures are explored based on a critical evaluation of the literature to draw the state of the art for the future oriented biofuel research a six fold typology mapping from two main futures studies methodologies is used i descriptive scenarios forecasts and statistical scenarios as descriptive methods ii roadmaps visions and backcasts as prescriptive methods the expectations embodied in the literature are then explored through deriving research challenges about the future of biofuels 1 the main motives and driving forces in a biofuel era 2 the main obstacles or difficulties confronting a biofuel era 3 the plausibility and importance of each of different scenarios 4 key technological breakthroughs for the bioeconomy 5 details about development maturity and flourish 6 biofuel era s significant achievement the literature explains a wide range of plausible futures from centralized systems related to technological breakthroughs to decentralized systems based on small scale renewable fundamental technological elements are uncovered and a plausible biofuel economy is drawn along with the necessary pathway to reach it the review shows a general agreement that a biofuel economy would develop gradually and a prompt shift to biofuels would require powerful governmental support coupled with significant disruptions such as changes in environmental principles of countries technology breakthroughs higher oil prices and urgency of climate change

scaling up biofuels a critical look at expectations performance and governance this editorial is the introduction to a special issue of scaling up biofuels a critical look at expectations performance and governance which assesses biofuels contribution to sustainability governance and upscaling the issue aims to contribute to a more informed evidence based policy debate on the role of bioenergy for sustainable development it comprises six review papers that share a solutions oriented and policy focused approach towards the assessment of sustainability bioenergy production and consumption is not evaluated as an isolated industry or additionality instead it is assessed as an inherent component of the broader social ecological system and history of which it forms a part synthesizing available empirical evidence on performance and contextualizing the evidence in view of expectations and bioenergy governance in and over time the papers address the role of biofuels for climate mitigation their ability to deliver on socio economic policy expectations the actual performance in view of risk anticipation and mitigation the role of state policy considering sector development and sustainability and the ability of certification schemes to deliver on market conversion and quality the synthesis paper draws on the empirical findings to develop a set of sustainability conditions sine qua nons that have to be considered in processes of policy making and upscaling

reply to commentary on the special issue scaling up biofuels a critical look at expectations performance and governance abstract the special issue scaling up bioenergy identifies major policy expectations attached to biofuels production worldwide and it provides systematic reviews of actual biofuel performance and governance in these areas papers address the extent to which policy expectations related to climate change mitigation energy security rural livelihoods and risk mitigation have been achieved and the effectiveness of public and private governance in advancing sector sustainability building on these findings the synthesis paper asks what next for countries wishing to advance national biofuel programmes as one option for the necessary divestment from fossil fuels among other sine qua nons the special issue highlights the urgent need to downscale global energy demand and to stop treating biofuels as an isolated sector goldemberg et al 2018 query several aspects of our approach from research design data collection to our recommendation to apply the precautionary principle in research as well as policy making unfortunately goldemberg et al 2018 incorrectly portray our main argument moreover they claim bias in our approach and mistakes in our empirical evidence however without bringing forward an evenhanded critique of research philosophy methodology or referencing different empirical literature we fully stand behind our research philosophy and findings presented

testing for homogeneity in demand systems when the regressors are nonstationary an implication of optimizing theory is that demand functions are homogeneous of degree zero in prices and nominal income evidence based on estimations of demand systems has repeatedly found this restriction to be rejected by the data however the hypothesis is often formulated in terms of regressors that are non stationary this paper re examines the evidence for homogeneity in light of recent developments in time series econometrics with special emphasis on the treatment of trends we find the demand system to be stochastically but not deterministically cointegrated using techniques developed for estimating cointegrating vectors in the presence of deterministic trends we re estimate the demand system and find that homogeneity holds in many cases

term structure evidence on interest rate smoothing and monetary policy inertia abstract numerous studies have used quarterly data to estimate monetary policy rules or reaction functions that appear to exhibit a very slow partial adjustment of the policy interest rate the conventional wisdom asserts that this gradual adjustment reflects a policy inertia or interest rate smoothing behavior by central banks however such quarterly monetary policy inertia would imply a large amount of forecastable variation in interest rates at horizons of more than 3 months which is contradicted by evidence from the term structure of interest rates the illusion of monetary policy inertia evident in the estimated policy rules likely reflects the persistent shocks that central banks face

the impact of biofuels on commodity food prices assessment of findings for years agriculture has provided most of the fuel for vehicular transportation concerns about availability of fuels balance of trade and climate change led to the introduction of biofuel programs in the united states brazil europeanunion eu andothercountries the impacts of these programs and the relationship between the food and fuel markets have become major topics of economic research this paper summarizes the main findings of alternative lines of research on the relationship between the food and fuel markets and identifies gaps and quandaries that warrant further research this is not meant to be a complete survey and it emphasizes several of our studies within the broader literature the paper distinguishes between two bodies of literature one on the relationship between food and fuel prices and another on the impact of the introduction of biofuel on commodity food prices while biofuel prices do not seem to affect food commodity prices we explain why the introduction of biofuel does moreover biofuelshavenotbeenthemostdominant contributor to the recent food price inflation and different biofuels have different impacts

efficient use of information and social value of information this paper analyzes equilibrium and welfare for a tractable class of economies games that have externalities strategic complementarity or substitutability and heterogeneous information first we characterize the equilibrium use of information complementarity heightens the sensitivity of equilibrium actions to public information raising aggregate volatility whereas substitutability heightens the sensitivity to private information raising cross sectional dispersion next we define and characterize an efficiency benchmark designed to address whether the equilibrium use of information is optimal from a social perspective the efficient use of information reflects the social value of aligning choices across agents finally we examine the comparative statics of equilibrium welfare with respect to the information structure the social value of information is best understood by classifying economies according to the inefficiency if any in the equilibrium use of information we conclude with a few applications including production externalities beauty contests business cycles and large cournot and bertrand games

heterogeneous information quality strategic complementarities and optimal policy design abstract the beauty contest framework of morris and shin 2002 is extended to allow sub groups within the population of agents to differ in the quality i e precision of their private information we discuss the inefficiency of the resulting model s equilibrium and assess the relative effectiveness in remedying this inefficiency of i a pigouvian tax scheme ii direct policy intervention by means of an instrument which can modify the state of the world the disclosure policy implications of each of these two policy approaches are also analyzed

who benefits from energy policy incentives the case of jatropha adoption by smallholders in mexico understanding the distribution of policy incentives is important in evaluating the impact of promotion programmes this study investigates the allocation of economic subsidies to jatropha cultivation by using adoption models at both the community and household levels in chiapas at the community level we compared socioeconomic and environmental variables of the communities that adopted jatropha to non adopters at the household level 420 farm households were surveyed to analyse both the determinants of adoption and the extent of adoption i e hectares dedicated to jatropha the variables determining adoption were analysed at both levels using generalised linear models the extent of jatropha adoption was assessed using ordinary least squares multiple regression quantitative data was complemented with key stakeholder interviews and focus groups results show that subsidies tend to be allocated to larger better connected communities which have access to better services within adopter communities the subsidy is distributed among households that have more resources better risk coping strategies better access to information more experience with similar technologies and whose attitude towards risk is positive this study provides lessons that can be useful for the introduction of new energy crops to better reach the target group and ultimately achieve the aims of energy promotion strategies

socially optimal coordination characterization and policy implications in recent years there has been a growing interest in macro models with heterogeneity in information and complementarity in actions these models deliver promising positive properties such as heightened inertia and volatility but they also raise important normative questions such as whether the heightened inertia and volatility are socially undesirable whether there is room for policies that correct the way agents use information in equilibrium and what are the wel

optimal monetary policy when information is market generated endogenous i e market generated signals observed by firms have crucial implications for monetary policy when information is endogenous firms gather a demand signal from their market that is both real and nominal as a result the traditional surprise channel of monetary policy is absent instead monetary policy works through a signaling channel as it affects firms information through the demand signal the optimal policy is then the signaling policy i e the policy that maximizes the information content of the demand signal in our setup the signaling policy targets a positive correlation between money supply and prices which emphasizes the natural response of prices to real shocks on the contrary in the more traditional case of exogenous information optimal monetary policy would stabilize prices as it acts through the surprise channel we show that the signaling policy is optimal regardless of the amount of attention that firms pay to central bank communication

demand for farm output in a complete system of demand functions demand interrelationships for farm outputs that are theoretically consistent with consumer demand and marketing group behavior provide important linkages between retail and farm prices a conceptual model based on reduced form specifications for retail and farm prices is formulated and applied empirically to a set of eight disaggregated food commodities this approach circumvents the need for retail quantities which are frequently unavailable for disaggregated food commodities the results are consistent with theory and generally indicate significant substitution between farm and marketing inputs except for poultry derived demand elasticities are at least 40 larger compared to those derived assuming fixed proportions

information acquisition and learning from prices over the business cycle abstract we study firms incentives to acquire costly information in booms and recessions to investigate the role of endogenous information in accounting for business cycles our model predicts that for a wide range of parameter values firms have a stronger incentive to acquire information when the economy has been in a recession and a pessimistic belief about the state of the economy prevails than after a boom when firms share an optimistic belief the equilibrium price system which features endogenous information transmission dampens aggregate fluctuations by discouraging information acquisition our welfare analysis reveals that information acquisition in the decentralized economy is not efficient this is due to inefficient employment dispersion arising from information heterogeneity in equilibrium time series data for the u s economy support the model s prediction of wages being more informative about total factor productivity after recessions than following booms

development of biofuels in south africa challenges and opportunities abstract biofuels have a potential to extend and diversify south africa s energy supply thus reducing dependence on imported fuels and pollution levels despite several biofuel policies and mandates biofuel development in south africa has stalled in the legislative process and no large scale commercial biofuel project has materialized yet developing biofuels especially using food grains is a big challenge to the government of south africa due to issues related to food security commodity prices economic and social concerns and impacts of land use changes on the environment the production cost of feedstock and employment creation opportunities from agricultural production play a vital role in selecting suitable feedstock for the region since considerable investment and infrastructure will be required for continued supply of feedstock and efficient biomass conversion technologies rigorous research and comprehensive studies are required to identify feedstock and technologies best suited for the successful establishment of biofuel industry in south africa

do no harm risk perceptions in national bioenergy policies and actual mitigation performance this paper investigates how risks are anticipated in national bioenergy policies and in which way related expectations that harms can be prevented or mitigated have actually been met the paper draws on the national biofuel policies of ten countries and the eu selected to represent a diverse sample of regions producers and consumers and pioneers and latecomers it proceeds in two steps firstly it identifies three risk categories most frequently mentioned across the investigated national policies secondly it conducts a systematic review of available empirical research about biofuels effects in these risk categories findings are discussed regarding the empirical conditions under which related expectations to do no harm have materialized or failed and concerning the challenges of risks perception and management in actual policies we observe issues of crop selection and inadequate sectoral governance of biofuels but also challenges of large scale modes of intensive production effective risk mitigation was often the result of risk adverse choices by contract farmers engaged in biofuels production national policy documents have insufficiently conceptualized do no harm concepts and strategies in place to address these performance issues while remaining silent on the particular risk governance and accountability framework that keeps track of actual developments commitments and responsibilities

sine qua nons of sustainable biofuels distilling implications of under performance for national biofuel programs biofuels have been promoted worldwide under the assumption that they can support several strategic policy goals while mitigating associated risks drawing on published evidence on performance contributing papers to this special section question assumptions commonly attributed to biofuels their carbon neutrality their positive effect on rural livelihoods and policymakers ability to effectively govern for sustainability this paper takes these findings as its starting point and asks what next for countries wishing to advance biofuels as one option for the necessary divestment from fossil fuels deriving recommendations for national biofuel programs from past performance is no easy task context complexity power dynamics and scaling pose significant challenges to achieving policy aims we are nevertheless able to distill a set of sine qua nons indispensables for sustainable biofuel governance from the evidence and change management literatures they are put forward not as recipes for success but minimum conditions and best bet approaches requiring testing deliberation and refinement perhaps the most fundamental sine qua non is to pursue options that downscale global demand as current levels of global energy consumption if only in the transport sector cannot be met by biomass derived agrofuels in a way that meets social and environmental sustainability goals

a review of social sustainability considerations among eu approved voluntary schemes for biofuels with implications for rural livelihoods the rapid expansion of biofuel production and consumption has raised concerns over the social and environmental sustainability of biofuel feedstock production processing and trade the european union eu has thus balanced its commitment to biofuels as one option for meeting its renewable energy targets with sustainability criteria for economic operators supplying biofuels to member states seven voluntary eu sustainability schemes were approved in july 2011 as a means to verify compliance while mandated sustainability criteria have a strong environmental focus a number of these voluntary schemes have social sustainability as a significant component of the requirements put forward for achieving certification as several of these voluntary schemes are incipient thereby limiting evidence on their effectiveness in practice this analysis is based on a comparative analysis of the substantive content or scope of these schemes and the likely procedural effectiveness of the same findings show that while some schemes have considerable coverage of social sustainability concerns poor coverage of some critical issues the presence of schemes lacking any social sustainability requirements and gaps in procedural rules are likely to undermine the likelihood that social sustainability is achieved through these schemes or the eu sustainability policies lending credibility to them