macroeconomic implications of production bunching factor demand linkages abstract existing empirical evidence suggests that output is more variable than consumption so that production smoothing is not apparently present in this paper we investigate some macroeconomic implications of the proposition that the empirical evidence reflects the presence of some firms in the economy that produce with nonconvex technologies overall when activities are sufficiently complementary and inventory holding is sufficiently costly nonconvexities at the firm level can generate a pattern of output and sales such that the variance of output exceeds that of sales at an aggregate level in this way nonconvexities at the individual firm level may have macroeconomic consequences

sales inventories and real interest rates a century of stylized facts we use bayesian time varying parameters structural vars with stochastic volatility to investigate changes in both the reduced form and the structural correlations between business inventories and either sales growth or the real interest rate in the united states during both the interwar and the post wwii periods we identify four structural shocks by combining a single long run restriction to identify a permanent output shock as in blanchard and quah 1989 with three sign restrictions to identify demand and supply side transitory shocks we produce several new stylized facts which should inform the development of new models of inventories in particular we show that i during both the interwar and the post wwii periods the structural correlation between inventories and the real interest rate conditional on identified interest rate shocks is systematically positive ii the reduced form correlation between the two series is positive during the post wwii period but in line with the predictions of theory it is robustly negative during the interwar era and iii during the interwar era the correlations between inventories and either of the two other series exhibits a remarkably strong co movement with output at the business cycle frequencies

overeducation regional labor markets and spatial flexibility for most workers access to suitable employment is severely restricted by the fact that they look for jobs in the regional labor market rather than the global one in this paper we analyze how macrolevel opportunities regional market characteristics and microlevel restrictions the extent to which job searchers are restricted to the regional market can help to explain the phenomenon of overeducation we use a two step procedure to control selective access to employment the results show that the size of the labor market is an important factor in avoiding overeducation

regional economic growth and human capital the role of over education ramos r surinach j and artis m regional economic growth and human capital the role of over education regional studies this article analyses the link between human capital and regional economic growth in the european union using various indicators of human capital calculated from census microdata it is concluded that the recent economic performance of european regions is associated with an increase in over education in fact measures of educational mismatch seem to be more strongly connected to regional economic performance than do other traditional measures of human capital stock ramos r surinach j and artis m ramos r surinach j et artis m la croissance economique regionale et le capital humain l impact de la sureducation regional studies cet article cherche a analyser le lien entre le capital humain et la croissance economiqu

structural instability and the production smoothing model of inventories the production smoothing model of inventories implies that inventories labor inputs sales and factor input prices are cointegrated if sales and factor prices are i 1 with one cointegrating vector for each state variable held these propositions are tested in six nondurable goods industries all industries provide evidence of cointegration fewer quasi fixed factors are found than previous research often assumed estimates of cointegrating vectors provide implausible parameter estimates rank stability tests with fixed or seqentially chosen breakpoints indicate that the cointegrating matrix has unstable rank parameter estimates of cointegrating vectors do not provide much support for the production smoothing model of inventories

seasonality and the production smoothing model abstract the debate over whether firms smooth production relative to demand continues in this paper we find that results obtained in blinder quarterly journal of economics 101 3 1986 431 453 and blinder and maccini journal of economic surveys 5 4 1991 293 328 indicating that firms do not smooth production are greatly influenced by the seasonal adjustment of the census data for us manufacturing using seasonally adjusted data we find significant evidence of production smoothing in 10 of 14 manufacturing industries for the years 1982 1997 further the prevalence of production smoothing has increased over time which we attribute either to fundamental changes in the collection of the data or to the advent of improved methods of inventory management

gender differences in overeducation a test of the theory of differential overqualification there is little question that substantial labormarket differences exist between men and women among the most researched difference is the male female wage gap many different theories are used to explain why men earn more than women one possible reason is based on the limited geographic mobility of married women robert frank 1978 family mobility is a joint decision in which the needs of the husband and wife are balanced to maximize family welfare job motivated relocations are generally made to benefit the primary earner in the family this leads to a constrained job search for the secondary earner as he or she must search for a job in a limited geographic area since the husband is still the primary wage earner in many families the job search of the wife may suffer individuals who are tied to a certain area are labeled tied stayers while secondary earners who move for the benefit of the family are labeled tied movers jacob mincer 1978 the wages of a tied stayer or tied mover may not be substantially lower if the family lives in or moves to a large city if a large labor market has more vacancies the wife may locate a wage offer near the maximum she would find with a nationwide job search however being a tied stayer or tied mover can lower the wife s wage if the family lives in or moves to a small community a small labor market will reduce the likelihood of her finding a job that utilizes her skills as a result she may accept a job for which she is overqualified and thus earn a lower wage this hypothesized relationship between the likelihood of being overqualified and smsa size is termed differential overqualification frank 1978 and haim ofek and yesook merrill 1994 provide support for the theory of differential overqualification by finding that the malefemale wage gap is greater in smaller smsa s while the results are consistent with the existence of differential overqualification they may also result from other situations as well firms in small labor markets may use their monopsony power to keep wages down 2 local demand shocks are found to be a major source of wage variation both across and within local labor markets robert topel 1986 since large labor markets are generally more diversified a demand shock can have a substantial impact on immobile workers in small labor markets another reason for examining differential overqualification involves the assumption that there are more vacancies in large labor markets while there is little doubt that more vacancies exist in large labor markets there are also likely to be more people searching for jobs in large labor markets if the greater number of vacancies is offset by the larger number of searchers it is unclear whether women will be more likely to be overqualified in small labor markets instead of relying on wages to determine if differential overqualification exists we consider an explicit form of overqualification based on education

intertemporal production and intertemporal substitution in output supply and input demand abstractthis article presents an intertemporal model of production with multiple inputs to investigate substitution opportunities facing firms over time the firm s intertemporal profit maximization problem is characterized with the familiar cost function and various intertemporal substitution elasticities are delineated for output supply and input demand the absence of intertemporal substitution in production can imply production smoothing and allowance for intertemporal substitution in labour demand reinforces the prediction of the real business cycle model for aggregate us manufacturing we find substantial substitution in output supply and labour demand over time due to intertemporal changes in output price and wage rates

classical and variance bounds tests of the production smoothing hypothesis in this paper we test the controversial production smoothing role of inventories by applying both classical econometric techniques and variance bounds tests we use seasonally unadjusted data measured in physical units for five industries the model used is a version of the familiar holt et al 1960 inventory model we also use the data on one industry disaggregated at the district level to investigate potential bias which may arise from aggregation overall the empirical evidence suggests production smoothing in the great majority of the industries examined

measuring noise in inventory models this paper has two purposes one is to assess different models of inventory behavior in terms of their ability to approximate the realized data we do this initially for the pure production smoothing model and then for a sequence of generalizations our analysis both performs specification tests as well as measures the deviations of the data from each null model through use of a noise ratio statistic a second purpose is to explore whether observed cost shocks in particular raw materials prices help explain inventory movements we find that the production smoothing model of inventories augmented by buffer stock motives stockout avoidance motives and observed cost shocks well approximates monthly data

residential construction using the urban growth model to estimate housing supply abstract this article presents an empirical model of housing supply derived from urban growth theory this approach describes new housing construction as a function of changes in house prices and costs rather than as a function of the levels of those variables which previous studies have used empirical tests support this specification over the leading alternative models our estimates show that a 10 rise in real prices leads to an 0 8 increase in the housing stock which is accomplished by a temporary 60 increase in the annual number of starts spread over four quarters

inventories rational expectations and the business cycle abstract the simplest macroeconomic models in which markets clear instantaneously and expectations are rational preclude the existence of business cycles that is of serially correlated deviations of output from trend this paper studies one of several mechanisms that can be used to make these so called new classical models produce business cycles the mechanism is the gradual adjustment of inventory stocks two macroeconomic models of inventory holdings are formulated both imply first that current output should be a decreasing function of the stock of inventories and second that inventories once perturbed from equilibrium levels should adjust only gradually these two features are then embedded into an otherwise standard macroeconomic model in which markets clear instantaneously and expectations are rational two principal conclusions are reached first disturbances such as unanticipated changes in money will set in motion serially correlated deviations of output from trend second if desired inventories are sensitive to the real interest rate then even fully anticipated changes in money can affect real variables

the effect of fringe benefits on employment fluctuations in u s automobile manufacturing the authors present a theoretical and empirical analysis of employment adjustment by u s automobile manufacturers the model allows for variable elasticities of substitution among labor and other inputs and between hours and workers they use total compensation as their measure of labor cost the authors labor effectiveness function has diminishing marginal returns to hours the speed of employment adjustment depends on the relative costs of straight time and overtime hours copyright 1991 by mit press

markups aggregation and inventory adjustment in this paper i suggest a unified explanation for two puzzles in the inventory literature first estimates of inventory speeds of adjustment in aggregate data are very small relative to the apparent rapid reaction of stocks to unanticipated variations in sales second estimates of inventory speeds of adjustment in firm level data are significantly higher than in aggregate data the paper develops a multisector model where inventories are held to avoid stockouts and price markups vary along the business cycle the omission of countercyclical markup variations from inventory targets introduces a downward bias in estimates of adjustment speeds obtained from partial adjustment models when the cyclicality of markups differs across sectors this downward bias is shown to be more severe with aggregate rather than firm level data similar results apply not only to inventories but also to labor and prices montercarlo simulations of a calibrated version of the model suggest that these biases are quantitatively significant

wage bargaining with time varying threats we study wage bargaining in which the union is uncertain about the firm s willingness to pay and threat payoffs vary over time strike payoffs change as replacement workers are hired as strikers find temporary jobs and as inventories or strike funds run out we find that bargaining outcomes are substantially altered if threat payoffs vary if dispute costs increase in the long run then dispute durations are longer settlement rates are lower and wages decline more slowly during the short run and may even increase the settlement wage is largely determined from the long run threat rather than the short run threat

inventory and price behaviour the point of this paper is that inventory adjustment attenuates downward pressure on price when realized demand is low because firms accumulate inventory hold overs speculating that demand will be stronger in the succeeding period when realized demand is high the firm draws down its inventories until a stock out occurs and price rises to clear the market

input and output inventories in the uk what is the role of inventories in uk manufacturing we present and estimate a model of inventories that considers separately finished goods and input i e the sum of raw materials and work in process inventories our results suggest that both types of inventories are used for production level and production cost smoothing we identify a small but significant negative relationship between inventories and the real interest rate thus providing support for one of the textbook channels of the monetary policy transmission mechanism variance decompositions indicate that technology shocks are the dominant driving factor behind cyclical changes in inventories

over education across british regions lenton p over education across british regions regional studies this paper analyses levels of over education and wage returns to education for males across eleven regions of the uk using labour force survey data significant differences are found in the probability of being over educated across regions also differences are found in the return to the correct level of education in each region in each case associated with flexibility of movement between and into particular regions which determines the ease of job matching furthermore evidence is found that after controlling for the level of education acquired there exists a premium to the correct level of education which varies across uk regions lenton p 11 over education lenton p la sureducation a travers les regions e

short run employment functions when the speed of adjustment depends on the unemployment rate a bstratacross industry and country comparisons have found the speed of adjustment in short run employment functions to be positively related to the rate of unemployment the present paper develops a time series model in which the reaction coefficient varies with unemployment and estimates it for the manufacturing sectors of the eight oecd countries for which suitable data are available the new model is non linear and is estimated using full information maximum likelihood procedures application of the log likelihood ratio test finds that the new vanable reaction coefficient model is superior to the fixed reaction coefficient model for the united states canada australia austria ireland and the united kingdom

technology shocks and cointegration in quadratic models of the firm in two quadratic models of a firm it is shown that if the firm s production function is not separable in its arguments then the presence of any unit root technology shock will prevent factor inputs from being cointegrated with input prices absent integrated technology shocks there will be one cointegrating vector for every quasi fixed factor held by the firm thereby providing one possible rationale for multiple cointegrating vectors in multivariate time series systems the parameters of these cointegrating vectors may be used to recover the parameters of the static factor demand functions obeyed by the firm copyright 1995 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

a model of inventory and layoff behaviour under uncertainty this paper develops a model of firm behavior under uncertainty designed to study the interac tion of inventories and layoffs the model is a blend of a buffer sto ck model of inventory behavior and an implicit contract model of layo ffs the model creates a distinction between inventory biased and lay off biased firms each of which exhibits inherently different pattern s of response of inventories and temporary layoffs to demand shocks in addition the model implies that the inventory layoff interaction tends to strengthen weaken the response of price and the work force to changes in anticipated demand real interest rates copyright 1988 by royal economic society

taking stock a critical assessment of recent research on inventories empirical and theoretical aspects of inventory behavior became hot topics in the 1950s and early 1960s no one seemed to notice the tension that was developing between the emerging macroeconomic and microeconomic views of inventories macroeconomists routinely thought of inventories as a destabilizing factor yet the prevailing micro theory viewed inventories as a stabilizing factor it was a fascinating question that was barely explored instead somewhat inexplicably interest in inventories dried up as if inventories were of minor economic significance and little intrinsic interest by the early 1980s then economists once again knew something they had known in the 1950s that inventory investment is of first order importance in business cycles but they were also beginning to realize that the standard production smoothing buffer stock model of inventories was in deep trouble this paper focuses on developments since that realization

uncertainty in sales and inventory behaviour in the u s trade sectors this paper investigates uncertainty in sales and inventory behavior for the u s wholesale and retail trade sectors first using a vector error correction model with garch m the authors find that the uncertainty measured by forecast error variance in sales does not affect inventory behavior in both trade sectors second using forecast error variance decomposition and estimated permanent components they observe that the uncertainty may be attributed more to demand shocks than to cost shocks

a note on the econometric use of constant dollar inventory series abstract one dollar of finished goods inventories does not represent the same amount of physical goods as one dollar of sales when department of commerce constant dollar series are used this can cause seriously biased regression estimates

the cyclical behaviour of inventories european cross country evidence from the early 1990s recession this paper employs data for a panel of firms from france italy and the uk to study the effect of the recession of the early 1990s on inventory investment controlling for cyclical fluctuations at the firm level the results clearly show some common patterns across countries pointing to the relevance of financial factors namely the level of leverage in propagating initial recessionary shocks moreover italian firms especially if small and young seem more likely to suffer from a reduction in the value of collateralizable assets possibly originated by restrictive policy actions

the determinants of manufacturing inventories in the uk the authors examine the determinants of inventory holding by the u k manufacturing sector over the period 1968 89 they find that inventory levels respond positively to output and its conditional variance and negatively to the level of gearing tehnological innovation in the form of computerized inventory control leads to a fall in the stock output ratio epirical results for inventories are examined in a cointegration and a general to specific error correction model with conditional variances estimated using an arch framework a backward looking error correction model is found to outperform a forward looking model although the latter also provides a reasonable fit to the data copyright 1993 by royal economic society

local underemployment and the discouraged worker effect summary the effect of poor local labour market opportunities on occupational achievement is an important aspect of the spatial mismatch hypothesis much of the research has concentrated on the direct link between geographical access to jobs and employment outcomes in contrast little attention has been given to the discouraging effect of poor chances on job search activities the discouraged worker effect is dee ned as the decision to refrain from job search as a result of poor chances on the labour market discouragement effects can arise from a lack of individual qualie cations from discrimination in the labour market or from a high local level of underemployment the empirical e ndings of this paper based on the netherlands labour force surveys 1994 97 show that discouragement can enter the job search process both at the stage of deciding to enter the labour force and at the stage of deciding to engage actively in a job search gender differentials in discouragement are revealed in the process of self selection into the labour force poor labour market chances lead to less activity in both off the job and on the job search indicating a role of discouragement in the spatial mismatch individual qualie cations and ascribed characteristics turn out to be more decisive than the local level of underemployment

the interrelationship between price and output decisions and investment decisions microfoundations and aggregate implications abstract this paper develops a model of firm behavior in which both price and output decisions and investment decisions are made the model permits an analysis of the dynamics of inventory and capital accumulation on price and output behavior there are two main results 1 short run price and output levels will differ from long run levels as desired stocks of inventory and capital diverge from actual levels 2 the size of the elasticities of price and output to changes in demand and cost variables depends on the speed with which gaps between desired and actual stocks are closed through investment

inventories financial structure and market structure abstract in this paper we study the effect of different financial contracts on the firm s inventory policy doing so will allow to define the best financial instruments to diminish the stock variability of a profit maximizing firm in a given economic environment expansion or recession and for a given market structure we show that in periods of recession expansion reducing increasing the amount of short term debt is an optimal strategy independently of the market structure

german inventory to sales ratios 1971 2005 an empirical analysis of business practice abstract the purpose of this study is to test empirically for the first time the general hypothesis that inventory to sales ratios have decreased over time in the german economy although inventory reduction has been a prevalent topic in the production and operations management literature there is a lack of empirically confirmed answers to questions they are as follows have inventories in german firms decreased overall during the past decades what sectors of german industry are leading lagging behind inventory reduction has inventory reduction developed differently for raw materials work in process or finished goods in which periods was marginal inventory reduction greatest to the best of our knowledge this empirical study is the first to broadly investigate inventory development from the 1970s until the present for a major european economy germany and will provide the first answers to the research questions stated above using aggregate industry level data provided by the deutsche bundesbank we show that inventory levels decreased overall in many sectors of german industry this reduction was mainly marked for raw materials and finished goods particularly for the second half of the time frame investigated

some empirical evidence on the production level and production cost smoothing models of inventory investment the production smoothing model of inventories has long been the basic paradigm within which empirical research on inventories has been conducted the basic hypothesis embedded in this model is that inventories of finished goods serve primarily to smooth production levels in the face of fluctuating demand and convex cost functions however once we allow for shocks to technology and the costs of producing output firms will also use inventories to shift production from periods in which production costs are relatively high to periods in which production costs are relatively low in this sense inventories can serve to smooth production costs rather production levels in this paper we examine the empirical plausibility of the production level and production cost smoothing models of inventories our basic strategy is to derive and contrast a set of unconditional moment restrictions implied by these models in a way that minimizes the role of auxiliary assumptions regarding market structure and industry demand we find overwhelming evidence against the production level smoothing model and very little evidence against the production cost smoothing mode1 we conclude that the variance of production exceeds the variance of sales in most manufacturing industries because the production cost smoothing role of inventories is quantitatively more important than the production level smoothing role of inventories this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

the linear quadratic inventory model as a micro foundation for keynesian theories of the business cycle abstract aggregate inventory investment is invariably procyclical this suggests that inventories play a destabilizing role in the economy as predicted by early keynesian models of the business cycle however this behavior is believed to be inconsistent with the most prominent micro theory of inventories the linear quadratic model this is not the case the linear quadratic model when placed in a simple macro framework can account for the procyclical behavior of inventory investment even when the only shocks are independent demand shocks inventory targets are independent of sales and individual firms adjust inventories slowly towards their target levels

the production and inventory behavior of the american automobile industry understanding inventory movements is central to an understanding of business cycles this paper presents an empirical study of the behavior of inventories in the automobile industry it finds that inventory behavior is well explained by the assumption of intertemporal optimization with rational expectations the underlying cost structure appears to have substantial costs of changing production as well as substantial costs of being away from target inventory thelatter being a function of current sales given this cost structure whether inventory behavior is stabilizing or destabilizing depends on the characteristics of the demand process in the automobile industry inventory behavior is destabilizing the variance of production is larger than the variance of sales

the speed of adjustment and production smoothing bayesian estimation abstract the models used for empirical studies of inventory behavior typically include the lagged stock of inventories as a result of the partial adjustment assumption and also exhibit serial correlation in the residuals some researchers suggested that the very low speed of adjustment of the actual inventories to their desired levels and also the lack of empirical support for the production smoothing hypothesis may be the results of applying inappropriate estimation methods to the data recently a bayesian estimator that applies to models containing both lagged dependent variables and autocorrelated disturbances was developed in this paper we examine the empirical evidence on the speed of adjustment of inventories to their desired levels and the degree to which firms smooth production by applying this new estimation method to monthly industry data the results show that the low speeds of adjustment reported in the literature as well as the low degree or lack of production smoothing also reported in the literature may indeed be artifacts of the estimation procedures used

investigation of production sales and inventory relationships using multicointegration and non symmetric error correction models the accumulated sum of a stationary series is called integrated if a linear combination of some of the integrated series is stationary it is said to be cointegrated this paper presents empirical results on inventories to consider the possibility of a deeper form of cointegration called multicointegration which is introduced in granger and lee 1989 a vector integrated series is multicointegrated if the accumulated sum of its stationary cointegrated linear combination is again cointegrated with itself inventory which is the accumulated sum of production minus sales is probably cointegrated with production and sales the empirical results generally support the presence of multicointegration of production and sales in many u s industries and industrial aggregates the results also favour the non symmetric error correction model providing evidence that the strength of attraction is different on both sides of the attractor a modified s s rule for inventory control is investigated in the context of a non symmetric error correction model and the results generally do not support the s s rule sufficient evidence is found to conclude that multicointegration is a useful concept in the area of inventory determination

unwilling or unable spatial and socio economic restrictions on females labour market access van ham m and buchel f 2006 unwilling or unable spatial and socio economic restrictions on females labour market access regional studies 40 345 357 the effects of regional structures on both females willingness to work and the probability of being employed for those willing to work are analysed special permission was granted to link regional data to individual respondents in the german socio economic panel gsoep results of a bivariate probit model correcting for sample selection show that high regional unemployment discourages women from entering the labour market those willing to work find it easier to do so if they live in regions with low regional female unemployment rates at a short distance from the next agglomeration and for mothers with a high density of childcare provision van ham m et buchel f 2006 peu disposees ou incapables les limites geographiques et socio economiques a l insertion des femmes dans le marche du travail regional studies 40 345 357 on cherche a anal

joint production quasi fixed factors of production and investment in finished goods inventories inventory investment has long been an important area of inquiry for empirical work in macroeconomics this is due in large measure to the fact that inventory investment is a major source of fluctuations in aggregate output empirical work on inventories however has been dominated by the use of simple univariate flexible accelerators 1 the major objective of this paper is to propose and test a multivariate flexible accelerator model for inventory investment the model is tested with data on finished goods inventories from the manufacturing sector of the u s economy there are two reasons for undertaking such a task first at a theoretical level a univariate flexible accelerator model asserts that investment in say finished goods inventories is proportional to the gap between the desired and actual stocks of finished goods such a model presumes that decisions by firms on finished goods inventories are made independently of decisions on other stocks but theory suggests that when firms make simultaneous decisions on a variety of stocks which includes not only finished goods but also goods in process inventories the size of the work force etc decisions on finished goods will interact with decisions on

inventory investment and production in europe during the great recession is there a pattern abstract the paper examines the nexus between inventory investment and the change in aggregate production during the great recession of 2008 09 for 29 european countries a fairly uniform pattern emerges inventory investment is positively correlated with changes in production and follows the latter with a time lag of two to three quarters very few countries austria greece spain and switzerland diverge from the typical pattern this might hint to problems with respect to data quality

trade inventories and s s the paper presents empirical tests of the s s model of inventory behavior using aggregate retail trade data estimation and testing are based on the probability distributions of inventories derived by caplin 1985 the excess volatility of retailers demand over their consumers demand and the forgetfulness of inventories under s s are emphasized test results indicate that the time series properties of deliveries and sales are consistent with s s and not a quadratic cost model finally when autoregressions of inventories are given an s s rather than a stock adjustment interpretation traditional empirical problems such as low speeds of adjustment are explained

a theory of career mobility this paper analyzes theoretically and empirically the role and significance of occupational mobility in the labor market focusing on individuals careers it provides additional dimensions to the analysis of investment in human capital wage differences across individuals and the relationships among promotions quits and interfirm occupational mobility it is shown that part of the returns to education is in the form of higher probabilities of occupational upgrading within or across firms given an origin occupation schooling increases the likelihood of occupational upgrading furthermore workers who are not promoted despite a high probability of promotion are more likely to quit

horizontal mismatch between employment and field of education evidence from a systematic literature review this paper provides a systematic review of the growing literature on the poor match between employees field degree and the job requirements also referred to as horizontal mismatch we identify the different definitions used in the literature and find that each measure of horizontal mismatch yields substantially different incidence rates we discuss the validity of the different measures and conclude that a more uniform definition of horizontal mismatch is needed the likelihood of horizontal mismatch is among other things determined by the extent to which employees possess general skills as opposed to occupation specific skills and it appears to be more frequently present among older workers compared to well matched employees horizontally mismatched workers generally incur a wage penalty are less satisfied with their jobs and are more likely to regret their study programme the ensuing findings offer guidance to prevent horizontal mismatch as well as a roadmap for future research

the variability of aggregate demand with s s inventory policies this paper develops a general theory of the aggregate implications of s s inventory policies it is shown that s s policies add to the variability of demand with the variance of orders exceeding the variance of sales overall the s s theory contradicts the widely held notion that retail inventories act as a buffer protecting manufacturers from fluctuating sales in 1951 arrow harris and marschak 3 introduced the s s form of inventory policy the policies are designed for retailers of finished goods who face economies of scale when placing orders with their suppliers to pursue an s s inventory policy the retailer establishes a lower stock point s and an upper stock point s no order is placed until inventories fall to s or below whereupon they are restored to the maximum of s a general proof of the optimality of these s s inventory policies was provided by scarf 13 at the microeconomic level the model has been extensively investigated formulae are available to compute optimal policies e g ehrhardt 6 and these policies are xidely used in industry e g schwartz ed 14 in addition the model has been extended to increasingly complex demand environments e g karlin and fabens 11 in contrast little is known about the macroeconomic implications of s s policies several recent papers have begun to correct this deficiency akerlof has suggested that pursuit of constant threshold money holding policies of the s s variety might be responsible for the observed low short run income elasticity of the demand for money akerlof 1 and akerlof and milbourne 2 in the operations research literature ehrhardt schultz and wagner 7 analyzed the demand environment of a wholesaler supplying several retailers they required that the distinct retailers have independent sales ruling out the analysis of common factors in sales finally simulation results of blinder 4 suggested a role for the s s model in understanding retail sector inventories however the theoretical difficulties with the model remained unresolved blinder commented if firms have a technology that makes the s s rule optimal aggregation across firms is inherently difficult indeed it is precisely this difficulty which has prevented the s s model from being used in empirical work to date blinder 4 p 459 in this paper we present a general theory of the aggregate implications of s s policies our central finding is that s s policies add to the variability of demand with the variance of orders exceeding the variance of sales this result holds even in the presence of common factors in retail sales in addition a close connection

nonconvex costs and the behavior of inventories this paper explores one possible explanation for the apparent excess volatility of production relative to sales nonconvexities in the technology facing firms it is shown that if firms operate in a region of declining marginal costs then small shifts in demand can cause production to jump substantially estimates for six production to stock industries as well as the automobile industry suggest that all these industries behave as if they were operating in the region of nonconvex costs the results have important implications not only for inventory investment but also for the cyclical behavior of productivity and prices

optimal higher education enrollment and productivity externalities in a two sector model abstract we analyze the optimal share of the skilled workforce over the course of development with two sectors using skilled and unskilled labor respectively and technological spillovers from higher education enrollment productivity in each sector depends on the average quality of workers and the size of the workforce when skill biased technological change prevails this structure of externalities coupled with the endogenous ability sorting of workers may well produce a pattern of overenrollment in early and late stages of development and underenrollment in between our normative analysis is followed by a positive analysis exploring how policy would differ under alternative political objectives

rational expectations and the smoothing properties of inventories of finished goods abstract this paper formulates and estimates a dynamic rational expectations equilibrium model of inventories of finished goods and employment of labor the view that the primary role of inventories of finished goods is to act as a buffer stock in the face of fluctuating demand is examined both the model and estimation results indicate that this is the case because of differences in the costs involved for firms in changing their inventory stocks and labor force in addition to providing some new evidence on the behavior of inventories of finished goods and employment the paper illustrates a technology for maximum likelihood estimation of structural parameters under the hypothesis of rational expectations

the linear quadratic adjustment cost model and the demand for labour in this paper we demonstrate a new way of testing the linear quadratic adjustment cost lqac model under rational expectations we illustrate how the parameter restrictions arising from this model can be formally specified and we use these restrictions to extent the technique of campbell and shiller 1987 to a wider class of models based on present value relations potentially the demand for labour is an area in which the lqac model can find applicability in practice and subsequently we analyse sectoral labour demand in danish manufacturing we find however that for our data set the quadratic adjustment cost model under rational expectations can be rejected

the effects of macroeconomic conditions at graduation on overeducation this article shows that unfavorable economic conditions at graduation decrease the likelihood of a good job worker match over a worker s subsequent career mismatch is quantified in terms of overeducation by both industry and occupation the german socio economic panel and region level unemployment rates from 1994 to 2012 are used instrumental variables estimates account for endogenous graduation timing a single percentage point increase in regional unemployment causes an increase in the probability of overeducation of 1 6 1 7 percentage points for university graduates effects for technical tertiary education and apprenticeship graduates are smaller labor market entry conditions affect workers for up to 9 years after graduation jel j23 j22 e32 i23

inventories and the volatility of production a stylized fact associated with inventory behavior is that the variance of production exceeds the variance of sales this paper presents a model of production decisions with demand uncertainty that incorporates no nnegativity constraints on inventories even with no productivity shocks optimal behavior by the firm is consistent with this stylized fact either if demand exhibits positive serial correlation or if the firm can backlog excess demand the reason is that a demand shock affects both the actual inventory level given unchanged production and the desired level production must replenish the stock and adjust to the new desired level copyright 1987 by american economic association

double penalty in returns to education informality and educational mismatch in the colombian labour market abstractthis article examines the returns to education taking into consideration the existence of educational mismatches in the formal and informal employment of a developing country results show that the returns of surplus required and deficit years of schooling are different in the two sectors moreover they suggest that these returns vary along the wage distribution and that the pattern of variation differs for formal and informal workers in particular informal workers face not only lower returns to their education but suffer a second penalty associated with educational mismatches that puts them at a greater disadvantage compare to their formal counterparts

adaptive expectations and perfect foresight in a nonlinear metzlerian model of the inventory cycle it has long been known that the motions of aggregate inventory investment are an important facet of the business cycle see e g blinder and maccini 1991 some elementary insights into the dynamic feedback effects between inventories production and sales were provided by metzler 1941 in a small theoretical model the present note adopts his framework but seeks to overcome the limitation of its linear specifications our basic idea corresponds to the concept of a flexible inventory accelerator while metzler postulated that desired inventory investment in discrete time is equal to the gap between desired and actual stocks of inventories some later studies have introduced a constant proportionality factor for the adjustment of inventories here we go one step further and hypothesize a variable stock adjustment speed as it turns out fast adjustments in a vicinity of the stationary equilibrium cause local instability but if for

can the production smoothing model of inventory behavior be saved the production smoothing model of inventory behavior has a long and venerable history and theoretical foundations that seem very strong yet certain overwhelming facts seem not only to defy explanation within the production smoothing framework but actually to argue that the basic idea of production smoothing is all wrong most prominent among these is the fact that the variance of detrended production exceeds the variance of detrended sales this paper first documents the stylized facts then it derives the production smoothing model rigorously and explains how the model can be amended to make it consistent with the facts finally it reviews the theoretical and empirical evidence and tries to draw some tentative conclusions

financing constraints and inventory investment a comparative study with high frequency panel data this study provides new evidence of the importance of financing constraints for explaining the dramatic cycles in inventory investment we compare the empirical performance of different financial variables coverage ratio cash stocks and cash flow used in previous research to test for the presence of financing constraints the comparison is undertaken in a common framework with an identical sample and high frequency quarterly firm panel data cash flow is much more successful than cash stocks or coverage in explaining the facts about inventory investment across firm size different inventory cycles and different manufacturing sectors

a panel data study on spanish firms inventory investment this paper raises several questions about inventory investment of a sample of 172 big nonfinancial spanish companies inventory investment has been usually explained by two alternative theories the production smoothing model and the s s model first we provide a descriptive analysis based on industry level data to show some shortcomings of the first model then we test a flexible accelerator model using firm level data the results seem to show that inventory investment previous period inventories and sales are closely and significantly related this evidence although not conclusive rejects both the pure production smoothing model and the s s model at the same time our results confirm the view of a target inventory level and the plausibility of the so called stock adjustment model so that the optimal inventory holding buffers sales volatility

overeducation in the labor market this article examines the reasons for the observed discrepancy between workers actual and required levels of schooling and the resulting differences in returns to schooling overeducated workers are found to be younger and to have lower amounts of on the job training than workers with the required level of schooling they also have higher rates of firm and occupational mobility characterized by movement of higher level occupations the findings suggest that overeducation can be explained by the trade off between schooling and other components of human capital and by the mobility patterns of overeducated workers

financial pressure monetary policy effects and inventories firm level evidence from a market based and a bank based financial system this paper examines the adjustment of inventories by firms in the united kingdom and spain which have two quite different financial systems a widely held view is that a key channel for monetary policy is through the influencing of inventory accumulation using a large company level panel data set for both countries significant effects associated with borrowing costs on inventories are estimated financial effects associated with liquidity and the borrowing ratio are estimated to be stronger in the uk than in spain since the spanish financial system is bank based while that of the uk is market based this is interpreted as contrary to the bank dependence hypothesis

working capital and fixed investment new evidence on financing constraints this article presents new tests for finance constraints on investment by emphasizing the often neglected role of working capital as both a use and a source of funds the coefficient of endogenous working capital investment is negative in a fixed investment regression as expected if working capital competes with fixed investment for a limited pool of finance this finding addresses a criticism of previous research on finance constraints that cash flows may simply proxy shifts in investment demand in addition previous studies may have underestimated the impact of finance constraints on growth and investment because firms smooth fixed investment in the short run with working capital

a structured var for denmark under changing monetary regimes using recently developed statistical tools for analyzing cointegrated 1 2 data this article models money income prices and interest rates in denmark the final model describes the dynamic adjustment to short run changes of the process to deviations from long run steady states and to several political interventions it provides new insights about the effects of the liberalization of trade and capital in a small open european economy

on the interpretation of cointegration in the linear quadratic inventory model abstract the traditional formulation of the linear quadratic inventory model with unit roots predicts cointegration between inventories and sales that formulation implies that marginal production costs and the marginal benefits of inventories are both tending to and the cointegrating coefficient reflects the optimal trade off between these competing factors this paper suggests a reformulation of the problem in which marginal production costs and marginal inventory benefits are both stationary and in which the cointegrating coefficient is the same as the value that characterizes the target inventory level in the cost function

the production smoothing model is alive and well abstract monthly data in physical units for seven industries are used to examine the production smoothing hypothesis the results strongly support this hypothesis significant effects of expected future sales on current production are found for four industries and the estimated decision equations for all seven industries imply production smoothing behavior the previous negative results appear to be due to the use of data biased against the hypothesis the shipments and inventory data of the department of commerce the paper also shows that sensible results can be obtained from estimating approximations to decision equations as opposed to estimating euler equations

inventories and sticky prices more on the microfoundations of macroeconomics the role of inventories in making prices sticky is studied by analyzing a dynamic linear quadratic model of a monopoly firm facing stochastic demand but able to store its finished goods in inventory it is shown that in contrast to the usual presumption firms that exhibit the smallest output responses to demand fluctuations may also exhibit the smallest price fluctuations specifically firms which have very flexible inventory storage facilities or are subjected to very transitory demand shocks will rely on inventories as buffers and will change neither production nor price very much on the other hand firms which have very inflexible storage facilities or whose demand shocks are quite permanent will display large swings in both price and output the standard assumption about inventory carrying costs that has been used in the literature that they are linear is shown to imply that production is impervious to fluctuations in demand it is also established that prices may respond more strongly to positive demand shocks than to negative ones if it is impossible to hold negative inventories i e to have unfilled orders the model offers an explanation for stickiness in relative prices however under certain circumstances it may help explain the persistence of inflation this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

why women work closer to home this paper analyzes the extent to which differences in labor force status in household composition and in household roles account for sex differences in workplace residence separation modelling work trip length as the outcome of the choice of household residential and individual job locations equilibrium work trip length is estimated empirically as a function of labor market housing and household characteristics for male and female employees in seven different household categories data from the 1976 panel survey of income dynamics are used the study concludes that while sex differences in job tenure work hours and wages are in themselves sufficient to fully account for observed sex differences in workplace residence separation sex differences in household roles i e responses to spouses characteristics are of even greater importance in influencing women to work closer to home

a re interpretation of the linear quadratic model when inventories and sales are polynomially cointegrated summary estimation of the linear quadratic model the workhorse of the inventory literature traditionally takes inventories and sales to be first difference stationary series and the ratio of the two variables to be stationary however these assumptions do not always match the properties of the data for the last two decades in the united states we propose a model that allows for the non stationary characteristics of the data using polynomial cointegration we show that the closed form solution has other recent models as special cases the resulting model performs well on aggregate and disaggregated data copyright 2006 john wiley sons ltd

non convex costs and capital utilization a study of production scheduling at automobile assembly plants i study detailed data from eleven automobile assembly plants these data display considerable cross plant heterogeneity in production scheduling to explain the observed heterogeneity i solve a dynamic programming model when desired production is below the plant s minimum e cient scale non convexities induce production bunching the plant uses less than full capital utilization on average and production is more volatile than sales when desired production is above the plant s minimum e cient scale the plant operates in a convex region of the cost curve in this case it uses high levels of capital utilization and production is less volatile than sales 2000 elsevier science b v all rights reserved jel classixcation e23 d21 l23

production and inventory control at the general motors corporation during the 1920 s and 1930 s this paper analyzes dynamics of production and inventories at the general motors corporation during the 1920s and 1930s the authors begin by examining anecdotal evidence on the nature of the production control system in force during that period motivated by that evidence they then extend the conventional linear quadratic model of production behavior to take account of annual shutdown finally the authors apply the modified model to newly available data on monthly unit production sales and inventories during 1924 40 general motors appears to have been aiming to maintain a targeted level of inventory relative to expected sales and secondarily to smooth production copyright 1993 by american economic association

financing constraints and inventories abstract this paper investigates the impact of financing constraints on firms inventory and cash management in particular it examines the extent to which the presence of such constraints may account for certain empirical regularities these include e g the excess variance of production vis a vis that of sales as well as the counter cyclicality and persistence of the inventory sales ratio we model the intertemporal decision making on production cash retention and dividends of a firm that is exposed to stochastic demand shocks in every period and faces constrained access to external sources of finance it is found that the presence of financing constraints can explain the excess variance of production in a model which otherwise would not deliver this result moreover as long as demand is positively serially correlated they also contribute to the counter cyclicality and persistence of the inventory sales ratio the paper suggests that financing constraints should not be discarded as a factor driving the cyclical behaviour of inventories