an overlapping generations model for monetary policy analysis abstract we integrate an overlapping generations structure into the standard lagos and wright 2005 framework and show that mild inflation can be welfare improving the reason behind this result is that inflation induces young agents to reduce their savings and to increase their consumption which overpowers the utility loss of old agents however the beneficial effect disappears for higher inflation rates such that the optimal inflation rate is one at an intermediate level

technical note delegating pricing responsibility to the salesforce in this paper we use an agency theory framework to address the issue of delegating pricing responsibility to the salesperson in this analysis it is shown that delegating the pricing responsibility to the salesperson is as profitable as centralization when the salesperson and the sales manager have identical information about the selling environment but delegation may be more profitable when the saleperson s information is superior to that of the sales manager s it is also argued that this characteristic is typical of market conditions where we observe delegation of such responsibility in cases identified by weinberg weinberg c b 1975 an optimal commission plan for salesman s control over price management sci 21 8 april 937 943 and stephenson cron and frazier stephenson p r w l cron g frazier 1979 delegating pricing authority to the salesforce the effects on sales and profit performance j marketing43 april 21 28

measuring the liquidity effect this paper measures the effect on the federal funds rate of an open market operation the paper deals with simultaneous equations bias by developing a proxy for the errors the federal reserve makes in forecasting the extent to which treasury operations will add or drain reserves available to private banks these errors induce fluctuations in bank reserves which have measurable consequences for the federal funds rate the paper estimates that a reduction in nonborrowed reserves of 30 million if sustained for an entire fourteen day reserve maintenance period will cause the federal funds rate to rise by ten basis points copyright 1997 by american economic association

endogeneity in brand choice models applications of random utility models to scanner data have been widely presented in marketing for the last 20 years one particular problem with these applications is that they have ignored possible correlations between the independent variables in the deterministic component of utility price promotion etc and the stochastic component or error term in fact marketing mix variables such as price not only affect brand purchasing probabilities but are themselves endogenously set by marketing managers this work tests whether these endogeneity problems are important enough to warrant consideration when estimating random utility models with scanner panel data our results show that not accounting for endogeneity may result in a substantial bias in the parameter estimates

fiscal requirements for dynamic and real determinacies in economies with private provision of liquidity a monetarist assessment we study the impact of fiscal policies on the inherent links between inflation unemployment and asset prices in an environment where firms provide liquidity and the central bank follows a constant money growth rate rule firms other than hiring workers also supply private assets that are not only useful as a store of value but also as collateral when firms are not taxed and public debt is scarce the economy is non ricardian so that real indeterminacies can be observed moreover labor market characteristics do not affect the demand for government liabilities however when agents face public and private asset scarcity labor market conditions then impact asset prices and inflation we further show that irrespective of the type of asset scarcity agents face when firms are taxed non ad valorem not only the level of tax revenues but also its composition matter for real allocations moreover we show that labor market conditions directly affect the dynamics of all government liabilities and inflation

job destruction and propagation of shocks this paper considers propagation of aggregate shocks in a dynamic general equilibrium model with labor market matching and endogenous job destruction cyclical fluctuations in the job destruction rate magnify the output effects of shocks as well as making them much more persistent interactions between capital adjustment and the job destruction rate play an important role in generating persistence propagation effects are shown to be quantitatively substantial when the model is calibrated using job flow data incorporating costly capital adjustment leads to significantly greater propagation

contract complexity and performance under asymmetric demand information an experimental evaluation exploring the tension between theory and practice regarding complexity and performance in contract design is especially relevant the goal of this paper is to understand why simpler contracts may commonly be preferred in practice despite being theoretically suboptimal we study a two tier supply chain with a single supplier and a single buyer to characterize the impact of contract complexity and asymmetric information on performance and to compare theoretical predictions to actual behavior in human subject experiments in the experiments the computerized buyer faces a newsvendor setting and has better information on end consumer demand than the human supplier the supplier offers either a quantity discount contract with two or three price blocks or a price only contract contracts that are commonplace in practice yet different in complexity results show that contrary to theoretical predictions quantity discounts do not necessarily increase the supplier s profits we also observe a more equitable distribution of profits between the supplier and the buyer than what theory predicts these observations can be described with three decision biases the probabilistic choice bias the reinforcement bias and the memory bias and can be modeled using the experience weighted attraction learning model our results demonstrate that simpler contracts such as a price only contract or a quantity discount contract with a low number of price blocks are sufficient for a supplier designing contracts under asymmetric demand information this paper was accepted by christian terwiesch operations and supply chain management

optimal fiscal and monetary policy in customer markets a growing body of evidence suggests that ongoing relationships between consumers and firms may be important for understanding price dynamics we investigate whether the existence of such customer relationships has important consequences for the conduct of both long run and short run policy our central result is that when consumers and firms are engaged in long term relationships the optimal rate of price inflation volatility is very low even though all prices are completely flexible this finding is in contrast to those obtained in first generation ramsey models of optimal fiscal and monetary policy which are based on walrasian markets echoing the basic intuition of models based on sticky prices unanticipated inflation in our environment causes a type of relative price distortion across markets such distortions stem from fundamental trading frictions that give rise to long lived customer relationships and makes pursuing inflation stability optimal

optimal monetary policy in a phillips curve world abstract in this paper we study optimal monetary policy in a model that integrates the modern theory of unemployment with a liquidity model of monetary transmission two policy environments are considered period by period optimization time consistency and full commitment ramsey allocation when the economy is subject to productivity shocks the optimal policy is pro cyclical we also characterize the long term properties of monetary policy and show that with commitment the optimal inflation rate is inversely related to the bargaining power of workers both results find empirical support in the data

improper selection of high cost producers in the rent seeking contest the resources two rival businesses spend to raise their own chanceof getting a unique monopoly license are a cost of rent seeking when those businesses differ in the costs of producing themonopoly good there is an additional cost of rent seeking that hasnot been sufficiently studied in the literature if the high cost producer winsthe license the difference between his cost and the costs of hismore efficient rival is a social loss from improper selection ofproducers by the political process the loss becomes more severewhen the ability to lobby of the inefficient producer outstripsthat of the efficient producer this may help to explain whyspecialized lobbying evolved specialized lobbying reduces thesocial cost from improper selection of firms by allowing efficientproducers to hire expert rent seekers and so to raise theirchances of gaining monopoly concessions

liquidity effects monetary policy and the business cycle this paper presents a flexible price quantitative general equilibrium model with the property that a positive money supply shock drives the nominal interest rate down and aggregate employment output and the real wage up these implications are broadly consistent with postwar u s data the two key features of the model that are responsible for its properties are 1 money shocks have a heterogeneous impact on agents and 2 ex post inflexibilities in production give rise to a very low short run interest elasticity of money demand in our model the extent of the drop in the interest rate after a positive money supply shock depends on the degree to which production is ex post inflexible given sufficient ex post inflexibility the model conforms well with the view widely held within the u s federal system that the short run interest rate elasticity for total reserves is very close to zero copyright 1995 by ohio state university press

a search model of unemployment and inflation in this paper i introduce money in the standard labor matching model mortensen and pissarides 1999 pissarides 2000 a double coincidence problemmakes fiat money necessary as a medium of exchange in the long run a rise inthe rate of money growth leads to higher inflation and higher unemployment sothe long run phillips curve is not vertical the optimal monetary growth ratedecreases with the workers bargaining power the level of unemploymentbenefits and the payroll tax rate

estimating interest rate elasticities in consumer credit based on a unique dataset with monthly loan account data for three types of consumer credit i estimate the interest rate elasticity of the demand for credit across credit types the main result shows that elasticities vary depending on the credit type used in the estimation moreover borrower heterogeneity with respect to interest rate elasticities differs across credit types too these results have important implications for policy measures aimed at stimulating borrowing and consumption

subprime consumer credit demand evidence from a lender s pricing experiment using a unique panel data set from a u k credit card company we analyze the interest rate sensitivity of subprime credit card borrowers in addition to all individual transactions and loan terms we have access to details of a randomized interest rate experiment conducted by the lender on existing inframarginal loans for the whole sample we estimate a statistically significant 3 4 reduction in monthly credit demand in response to a five percentage point increase in interest rates this aggregate response is small but it masks very interesting heterogeneity in the sample we find that only low risk borrowers who fully utilize their credit cards lower their credit demand significantly when faced with an increase in interest rates we also document that a five percentage point increase in interest rates generates significant additional revenue for the lender without inducing delinquency over a short horizon 2013 the author

precommitments for financial self control micro evidence from the 2003 korean credit crisis we analyze high frequency micro panel data on customers of a major korean credit card company before and after the 2003 korean credit crisis and find evidence of pervasive precommitment behavior that is difficult to explain using standard economic theories 1 customers voluntarily reduce their credit card borrowing limits without any compensation 2 customers turn down interest free installment loan offers with high probability and 3 of the small fraction of customers who do accept interest free loan offers most precommit to pay off the loan over a shorter term than the maximum allowed term under the offer

the time varying cost channel of monetary transmission abstract this paper studies the time varying role of the cost channel of monetary transmission i e the supply side effect of monetary policy based on firms costs of holding working capital for that purpose we provide rolling window estimates of an augmented new keynesian phillips curve and show that the cost channel exhibits important time varying dynamics we find as a general pattern that the cost channel was most important in the pre volcker period and less important in the volcker greenspan era recently however the cost channel regained importance since the cost channel is based on the transmission of policy impulses through bank lending it is likely that the time varying cost channel reflects the cyclical nature of financial frictions

consumer credit evidence from italian micro data in this paper we analyse unique data on credit applications received by the leading provider of consumer credit in italy findomestic the data set covers a five year period 1995 1999 during which the consumer credit market rapidly expanded in italy and a new law the usury law came into force that set a limit on interest rates charged to consumers we compute behavioural changes by controlling for changes in the observable characteristics of the findomestic clientele and argue that under suitable identifying assumptions these changes can be given a structural interpretation if the usury shock is assumed to have affected credit supply but not credit demand that is if the usury law had a differential impact on the supply of various types of credit but a uniform impact on demand then we can identify and estimate a demand equation our key finding is that demand is interest rate elastic particularly in the more affluent north 2005 by the european economic association

search for a monetary propagation mechanism abstract this paper examines a monetary propagation mechanism in an economy where exchanges in goods and labor markets involve costly search it is shown that an increase in the money growth rate increases steady state employment and output when the money growth rate is low but reduces steady state employment and output when the money growth rate is already high the model produces persistent hump shaped responses in employment and output to money growth shocks even when the shocks have no persistence the model also generates desirable features in job vacancy sales inventory and the velocity of money all these features emerge here in an economy with perfectly flexible prices and wages journal of economic literatureclassification numbers e40 e30

liquidity loanable funds and real activity abstract this paper develops a general equilibrium model of two traditional explanations of the monetary black box linking money and real activity the liquidity effect and the loanable funds effect these effects are modeled with a monetary production economy in which central bank injections of cash are funnelled into the economy through the credit market since only borrowers have direct access to the newly injected cash monetary injections cause nominal interest rates to fall if firms are borrowers then monetary injections also increase current and future real activity

credit elasticities in less developed economies implications for microfinance policymakers often prescribe that microfinance institutions increase interest rates to eliminate their reliance on subsidies this strategy makes sense if the poor are rate insensitive then microlenders increase profitability or achieve sustainability without reducing the poor s access to credit we test the assumption of price inelastic demand using randomized trials conducted by a consumer lender in south africa the demand curves are downward sloping and steeper for price increases relative to the lender s standard rates we also find that loan size is far more responsive to changes in loan maturity than to changes in interest rates which is consistent with binding liquidity constraints

the sense and non sense of holdout sample validation in the presence of endogeneity market response models based on field generated data need to address potential endogeneity in the regressors to obtain consistent parameter estimates another requirement is that market response models predict well in a holdout sample with both requirements combined it may seem reasonable to subject an endogeneity corrected model to a holdout prediction task and this is quite common in the academic marketing literature one may be inclined to expect that the consistent parameter estimates obtained via instrumental variables iv estimation predict better than the biased ordinary least squares ols estimates this paper shows that this expectation is incorrect that is if the holdout sample is similar to the estimation sample so that the regressors are endogenous in both samples holdout sample validation favors regression estimates that are not corrected for endogeneity i e ols over estimates that are corrected for endogeneity i e iv estimation we also discuss ways in which holdout samples may be used sensibly in the presence of endogeneity a key takeaway is that if consistent parameter estimates are the primary model objective the model should be validated with an exogenous rather than endogenous holdout sample

the determinants of campaign spending the role of the government jackpot a slave has but one master the ambitious man has as many masters as there are persons whose aid may contribute to the advancement of his fortune jean de labruyere des ouvrages de l esprit i introduction this paper builds a model of elections in which contributors give money to candidates in return for promises of government favors each candidate spends to increase his chances of victory the candidate s probability of winning and the value of government resources that would be his to distribute if he won the jackpot determine the amount he can raise the model suggests a way to measure the influence of the jackpot on spending while controlling for other effects such as the probability of winning the search for this result is interesting because we wish to know what influences the resources devoted to courting politicians is the growth of government truly to blame why if government is for sale do contributors give so little relative to the size of government to control so much and why as abrams and settle 1978 found does campaign spending sometimes not grow even though government grows do official limits on public debt reduce the politician s discretionary control over government resources and hinder his ability to sell favors how does ideology interfere with the candidate s demand for contributions empirical models of contributions that can serve as a guide have been of two sorts abrams 1981 following the work of crain and tollison 1977 crain deaton and tollison 1977 and gifford and santoni 1978 regressed campaign spending on several proxies for the jackpot and found a positive effect a more popular approach to explaining campaign outlays pioneered by jacobson 1978 has been to regress spending or contributions on the candidate s probability of victory and to ignore the role of the jackpot the implicit assumption in such models is that the candidate s net worth to contributors determines spending the candidate cares only about winning and raises as much as he can the greater his chances of winning the more he can raise and the more he will spend i call this the supply side view because spending depends only on the supply of contributions this approach goes some way to explaining contributions but neglects the role of the jackpot and cannot explain why some strong candidates who are sought after by contributors accept little or nothing such as former senator william proxmire of wisconsin the present study takes something from both approaches but argues that candidates may not wish to spend all they can raise because contributions do not come free of charge as baron 1989 pointed out the candidate s demand albeit bounded by potential supply determines contributions candidates probably run for election to control government wealth and must ponder how much of the jackpot to auction for contributions the candidate s demand for contributions can be derived from a utility function that rises with his probability of victory but diminishes with the contributions he accepts how much a candidate demands depends on the size of the bernoulli variance of the outcome which i call closeness and the size of the jackpot the greater the closeness and the larger the jackpot the greater the candidate s demand a close race is defined here not by the number of rivals or the margin of victory but as one in which the outcome is very uncertain the typical candidate does not spend all he is able to raise but the effect of closeness fades if the candidate wishes to win greatly the model describes the simultaneous relationship between spending and closeness and imposes identifying restrictions i carry out tests on samples drawn from the 1978 and 1986 contests for u s state governorships and find that jackpots affect election spending but that closeness is less important in addition i find that in states where the legislature is constitutionally required to balance the budget governors sell less of the jackpot

a neoclassical model of the phillips curve relation this paper integrates the modern theory of unemployment with a limited participation model of money and asks whether such a framework can produce correlations like those associated with the phillips curve as well as realistic labor market dynamics the model incorporates both monetary and real shocks the response of the economy to monetary policy shocks is consistent with recent evidence about the impact of these shocks on the economy

ramsey monetary policy with labor market frictions abstract traditional new keynesian models prescribe that optimal monetary policy should aim at price stability in the absence of a labor market frictions the monetary authority faces no unemployment inflation trade off the design of optimal monetary policy is analyzed here for a framework with sticky prices and matching frictions in the labor market optimal policy features deviations from price stability in response to both productivity and government expenditure shocks when the hosios 1990 on the efficiency of matching and related models of search and unemployment review of economic studies 57 2 279 298 condition is not met search externalities make the flexible price allocation unfeasible optimal deviations from price stability increase with workers bargaining power as firms incentives to post vacancies fall and unemployment fluctuates above the pareto efficient one

do liquidity constraints and interest rates matter for consumer behavior evidence from credit card data this paper utilizes a unique new dataset of credit card accounts to analyze how people respond to changes in credit supply the data consist of a panel of thousands of individual credit card accounts from several different card issuers with associated credit bureau data we estimate both marginal propensities to consume mpcs out of liquidity and interest rate elasticities we also evaluate the ability of different models of consumption to rationalize our results distinguishing the permanent income hypothesis pih liquidity constraints precautionary saving and behavioral models we find that increases in credit limits generate an immediate and significant rise in debt counter to the pih the average mpc out of liquidity ddebt dlimit ranges between 10 14 the mpc is much larger for people starting near their limits consistent with binding liquidity constraints however the mpc is significant even for people starting well below their limit we show this response is consistent with buffer stock models of precautionary saving nonetheless there are other results that conventional models cannot easily explain e g why so many people are borrowing on their credit cards and simultaneously holding low yielding assets unlike most other studies we also find strong effects from changes in account specific interest rates the long run elasticity of debt to the interest rate is approximately 1 3 less than half of this elasticity represents balance shifting across cards with most reflecting net changes in total borrowing the elasticity is larger for decreases in interest rates than for increases which can explain the widespread use of temporary promotional rates the elasticity is smaller for people starting near their credit limits again consistent with liquidity constraints

inflation and unemployment in the long run we study the long run relation between money measured by inflation or interest rates and unemployment we first document in the data a positive relation between these variables at low frequencies we then develop a framework where unemployment and money are both modeled using microfoundations based on search and bargaining theory providing a unified theory for analyzing labor and goods markets the calibrated model shows that money can account for a sizable fraction of trends in unemployment we argue it matters qualitativelynand quantitatively whether one uses monetary theory based on search and bargaining or an alternative ad hoc specification

business cycles and labor market search the quantitative implications of labor market search for economic fluctuations are evaluated in the context of a real business cycle model incorporating labor market search into the model is found to improve its empirical performance along several dimensions in particular hours now fluctuate substantially more than wages and the contemporaneous correlation between hours and productivity falls in addition the model replicates the observation that output growth displays positive autocorrelation at short horizons overall the empirical results suggest that the labor market search environment embodies a quantitatively important propagation mechanism copyright 1996 by american economic association

a control function approach to endogeneity in consumer choice models abstract endogeneity arises for numerous reasons in models of consumer choice it leads to inconsistency with standard estimation methods that maintain independence between the model s error and the included variables the authors describe a control function approach for handling endogeneity in choice models observed variables and economic theory are used to derive controls for the dependence between the endogenous variable and the demand error the theory points to the relationships that contain information on the unobserved demand factor such as the pricing equation and the advertising equation the authors approach is an alternative to berry levinsohn and pakes s 1995 product market controls for unobserved quality the authors apply both methods to examine households choices among television options including basic and premium cable packages in which unobserved attributes such as quality of programming are expected to be correlated with price without correcting for endogeneity aggregate d

the effectiveness of field price discretion empirical evidence from auto lending in many markets it is common for headquarters to create a price list but grant local salespeople discretion to negotiate prices for individual transactions how much if any pricing discretion headquarters should grant is a topic of debate within many firms we investigate this issue using a unique data set from an indirect lender with local pricing discretion we estimate that the local sales force adjusted prices in a way that improved profits by approximately 11 on average a counterfactual analysis shows that using a centralized data driven pricing optimization system could improve profits even further up to 20 over those actually realized this suggests that centralized pricing if appropriately optimized can be more effective than field price discretion we discuss the implications of these findings for auto lending and other industries with similar pricing processes this paper was accepted by serguei netessine operations management

optimality of the friedman rule in economies with distorting taxes abstract we find conditions for the friedman rule to be optimal in three standard monetary models our main contribution is to shed light on two issues in the literature first the conventional view maintains that when money is a final good its services should be taxed moreover if money demand is interest inelastic its services should be taxed heavily we show that this view is incorrect second there is an ongoing controversy about whether the optimality of the friedman rule is connected to the intermediate goods result from public finance we resolve this controversy by showing a deep connection between these results

the role of countercyclical monetary policy when firms set nominal prices in advance optimal monetary policy insulates aggregate output against shocks to demand it can do so however by following the constant money growth rule advocated by milton friedman it need not respond to the shocks in an actively countercyclical way in addition to the extent that output fluctuations are driven by shocks to supply money growth should be procyclical

political and monetary institutions and public financial policies in the industrial countries institutions and policies vittorio grilli donato masciandaro and guido tabellini why do countries as similar as the industrialized oecd countries go through such different experience in terms of public deficits and debts or in terms of inflation the answer cannot come from macroeconomic policy responses to different disturbances nor from the principles of optimal taxation but rather from politics this article focuses on the role that particular institutions exert in providing constraints and incentives which shape the actions of policymakers the electoral process and political traditions affect the ability of governments to deal with deficits and mounting debts what seems to matter most it is found is the effect of the durability of governments governments with short horizons act myopically and never quite tackle the hard choices such governments typically exist in countries with an electoral system favouring many small political parties central bank independence promotes low inflation with no apparent costs in terms of real economic performance irrespective of the political institutions in fact there is no link between monetary and fiscal discipline these findings carry powerful implications for countries facing high indebtedness or stubborn inflation but also for the construction of the european economic and monetary union

the role of search frictions in the long run relationships between inflation unemployment and capital abstract this paper explores the long run relationships between inflation unemployment and capital accumulation by proposing a model with search frictions in both goods and labor markets this framework allows us to identify a negative extensive margin effect of inflation on the number of firms demanding capital and a positive intensive margin effect of inflation on the capital demanded per firm the two effects together generate a hump shaped relationship between long run inflation and aggregate capital these results are consistent with our empirical evidence from a cross section of 76 countries which suggests a non monotonic relationship between inflation and investment to gdp ratio in the long run our calibrated results are also consistent with empirical findings from the u s data on the effect of inflation on capital stock unemployment and the real interest rates

evasive ability and the efficiency cost of the underground economy in the presence of differing abilities to evade taxes markets select producers for their evasive skills and their abilities to keep costs of production low inefficient firms crowd out efficient firms if the least efficient firms are the best tax evaders adverse selection is severe and output comes entirely from the high cost end of the supply curve tax revenue may be greater under tax evasion than without evasion if evasive ability allows government to act as a price discriminating monopolist when evasive and productive talents are unrelated this result disappears but the deadweight loss due to adverse selection of firms persists and rivals the size of the traditional triangle deadweight loss

liquidity provision interest rates and unemployment abstract the effective liquidity supply of the economy the weighted sum of all assets that serve as media of exchange matters for interest rates and unemployment we formalize this idea by adding an over the counter market with collateralized trades to the mortensen pissarides model an increase in public liquidity through a higher supply of real government bonds raises the real interest rate crowding out private liquidity and increasing unemployment if unemployment is inefficiently high keeping liquidity scarce can be socially optimal a liquidity crisis affecting the acceptability of private assets as collateral widens the rate of return difference between private and public liquidity also increasing unemployment

ambiguous policy announcements we study the effects of an announcement of a future shift in monetary policy when agents face knightian uncertainty about the commitment capacity of the monetary authority households are ambiguity averse and are differentially exposed to inflation due to differences in wealth in response to the announcement of a future loosening in monetary policy only wealthy households creditors will act as if the announcement will be fully implemented due to the potential loss of wealth from the prospective policy easing and when creditors believe the announcement more than debtors their expected wealth losses are larger than the wealth gains that debtors expect hence the economy responds as if aggregate net wealth falls which attenuates the effects of the announcement we study the quantitative properties of the model in a liquidity trap after allowing for a realistic characterization of households wealth portfolio