the determinants of chinese visitors to australia a dynamic demand analysis although china has progressively become an important inbound tourism market for australia its demand elasticities have been little studied to date this study examines the determinants of chinese visitors to australia using a dynamic time series estimator interesting findings include a high income elasticity as a source of the continuous doubledigit growth rates in chinese arrivals that australia has experienced over the past two decades together with relatively high total trip price elasticities for both short run and long run a trend of chinese outbound to australia is also identified from a policy perspective the results confirm that keeping a low cost of visiting australia both ground and travel costs is a good strategy to secure greater numbers of chinese tourists

a model of urban demography this study develops an overlapping generations model that involves the endogenous determination of demographic and city structure to fully analyze the social and natural changes in city populations we provide conditions under which the model exhibits the spatial features of demography observed in urban areas city centres have a lower total fertility rate than suburbs and larger cities have a lower total fertility rate than smaller cities through calibration we also show that spatial factors have a significant impact on demographic characteristics and city growth resume un modele de demographie urbaine cette etude developpe un modele de generations qui se chevauchent qui genere la determination endogene de la demographie et de la structure urbaine pour analyser pleinement les changements sociaux et culturels des populations urbaines on presente les conditions qui font que le modele genere les caracteristiques spatiales de la demographie observee dans les zones urbaines le centre ville avec un taux de fecondite plus faible que les banlieues et les grandes villes arborant une fecondite totale plus faible que les petites villes a l aide de calibration on montre que les facteurs spatiaux ont un impact significatif sur les caracteristiques demographiques et la croissance des villes

the effect of life expectancy on fertility saving schooling and economic growth theory and evidence we construct a simple growth model where agents with uncertain survival choose schooling time life cycle consumption and the number of children we show that rising longevity reduces fertility but raises saving schooling time and the growth rate at a diminishing rate cross section analyses using data from 76 countries support these propositions life expectancy has a significant positive effect on the saving rate secondary school enrollment and growth but a significant negative effect on fertility through sensitivity analyses the effect on the saving rate is inconclusive while the effects on the other variables are robust and consistent these estimated effects are decreasing in life expectancy

immigrant trade links transplanted home bias and network effects macro level data for the us and 73 trading partners spanning the years 1980 to 2001 is used with a gravity specification to investigate the influence of immigration on bilateral trade prior research has identified immigrant stocks as a significant determinant of trade however this study indicates that the us immigrant trade link is driven by immigration from relatively low income countries a 10 increase in the immigrant stock is found to generate respectively 4 7 and 1 5 increases in domestic imports from and exports to the typical low income home country the observed link is decomposed into two hypothesized channels network effects and transplanted home bias considerable variation in per immigrant trade effects is found across home countries imports from the typical low income home country are estimated to increase by up to 2057 due to transplanted home bias and by as much as 2967 as a result of network effects while exports rise by up to 910 as a result of networks

household and economy welfare economics of endogenous fertility mark nerlove assaf razin and efraim sadka academic press new york 1987 pp xii 155

immigration and trade creation econometric evidence from canada immigrants may expand trade with their country of origin owing to superior knowledge of or preferential access to market opportunities the authors test this proposition using canadian trade data with 136 partners from 1980 to 1992 in an augmented gravity equation they find that a 10 percent increase in immigrants is associated with a 1 percent increase in canadian exports to the immigrant s home country and a 3 percent increase in imports they also find that among the primary categories of immigrants independents have the greater influence on trade immigration via the entrepreneur class appears to have less impact on trade than all other classes except refugees

socially optimal social security and education subsidization in a dynastic model with human capital externalities fertility and endogenous growth abstract this paper considers socially optimal government policies in a dynastic family model with physical capital human capital endogenous fertility and positive spillovers from average human capital such spillovers reduce human capital investment but raise fertility from their social optimum we first characterize the social optimum with a non convex feasible set due to the quantity quality tradeoff concerning children we then show that social security and education subsidization together financed by labor income taxes can fully eliminate the efficiency losses of the spillovers and achieve the social optimum under plausible conditions however none of the policies can do so alone

immigration and international inbound tourism empirical evidence from australia abstract immigration can potentially influence tourism flows however in spite of the vast number of studies on tourism demand modelling the immigration tourism linkage has not received much attention in the empirical literature this paper seeks to address this gap a dynamic demand model is developed and estimated using data from 1980 to 2008 for the 15 main markets of australia the explanatory variables included are income own price price of a substitute destination airfare and immigration the estimation results empirically establish the connection between immigration and inbound tourism the short run and long run immigration elasticities generated are 0 028 and 0 09 respectively additionally this paper demonstrates that omission of prices of substitutes affects the value of the own price elasticity of demand the results have implications for future research and for stakeholders who can improve the efficiency of their planning exercises by taking into account additional information on immigration trends

cointegration analysis of quarterly tourism demand by hong kong and singapore for australia hong kong and singapore are two of the most important and fastest growing markets for tourists to australia the purpose of this paper is to investigate movements in the long run demand for tourist travel by these two origin countries for australia some of the leading macroeconomic variables examined to explain tourism demand are incomes in hong kong and singapore tourism prices in australia and transportation costs and exchange rates between the two countries and australia seasonally unadjusted quarterly data are used for hong kong for the period 1975 1 1996 4 and for 1980 4 1996 4 for singapore several proxy variables are used for the incomes of tourists from hong kong and singapore to explain quarterly tourist arrivals to australia the augmented dickey fuller test for unit roots is examined in the univariate framework and johansen s maximum likelihood procedure is used to test for cointegration and to estimate the number of cointegrating vectors error correction models are estimated to exp

tourism demand modelling and forecasting a review of recent research abstract this paper reviews the published studies on tourism demand modelling and forecasting since 2000 one of the key findings of this review is that the methods used in analysing and forecasting the demand for tourism have been more diverse than those identified by other review articles in addition to the most popular time series and econometric models a number of new techniques have emerged in the literature however as far as the forecasting accuracy is concerned the study shows that there is no single model that consistently outperforms other models in all situations furthermore this study identifies some new research directions which include improving the forecasting accuracy through forecast combination integrating both qualitative and quantitative forecasting approaches tourism cycles and seasonality analysis events impact assessment and risk forecasting

tourism in the balearic islands a dynamic model for international demand using panel data abstract the balearic islands are one of the most important tourist destinations in the mediterranean sea the tourism sector dominates the economic activity of the islands the purpose of this study is to identify and measure the impact of the main determinants of the inbound international tourism flows the annual panel data set includes the number of arrivals from the 14 most important generating countries during the period 1991 2003 and a number of possible explanatory variables taking into account the changing structure of consumer preferences a dynamic model is estimated the estimated coefficient for the lagged dependent variable may be reflecting the importance of consumer loyalty to the destination as a determinant of tourism demand the results suggest that the demand is heavily dependent on the evolution of economic activity in each of the origin countries and on the relative cost of living of tourists in the destination this study also suggests that diversification of promotion and provision of high quality services are some recommended measures of tourism policy

immigrant links to the home country empirical implications for u s bilateral trade flows immigrants ties to their home countries can play a key role in fostering bilateral trade linkages immigrant ties include knowledge of home country markets language preferences and business contacts that have the potential to decrease trading transaction costs empirical results for the united states suggest that immigrant links have historically been important in increasing bilateral trade flows with immigrants home countries copyright 1994 by mit press

the impacts of immigrants and institutions on bilateral tourism flows abstract in this paper we use data on recent bilateral tourism flow from 34 organisation for economic co operation and development oecd countries to 52 middle to low income countries for the period 1995 2010 to determine whether immigration trade and institutional quality play a role in driving oecd nationals to visit immigrant source countries except for the african countries the results show that immigrants residing in oecd countries have a positive advertising effect for their home country inducing tourism flows from oecd countries we also find that the quality of institutions along with freedom and civil liberty indices are important in selecting tourism destinations a massive 8 of the variation in tourism flows can be accounted for by these factors these results hold for the subsample and the whole sample with two exceptions european and african destinations we posit that this feature of the data exists because european african countries are so similar to each other and small differences in the indexes do not matter at the top bottom of the distribution by controlling for gravity and macroeconomic stability variables we also show that the trade flows between countries among other factors play a crucial and stable role on tourism flows dynamic panel data estimation is used to account for the influence of repeat visits and support our findings

the problem of population and growth a review of the literature from malthus to contemporary models of endogenous population and endogenous growth abstract this paper deals with the evolution of the literature on the problem of population and growth from the classical period to the recent literature on endogenous growth and development the problem concerns two distinct issues 1 how to explain the observed covariation of the levels and rates of growth of per capita income and population size over time and space and 2 how to improve the human condition represented by these variables through an accommodating social policy the evolution of the literature we survey is reflected by the progressive treatment of key variables as endogenous rather than exogenous to the growth process it is also reflected by a shift from the historical concern about population explosion and its implications for growth to the more recent concern about the association between growth and population implosion in many developed countries

inbound international tourism to canary islands a dynamic panel data model abstract this paper presents a dynamic model of international tourism demand to canary islands the empirical analysis exploits the panel structure of the dataset for the 15 most important countries of origin of tourists over the period 1992 2002 by a generalized method of moments estimation of a dynamic model taking into account unobserved country specific effects the preferred model is the gmm diff proposed by arellano and bond however other models are also shown for comparison a dynamic model where the lagged dependent variable is included as regressor is used to obtain short run and long run elasticities problems arising from the non stationarity of data are dealt with by using a model in first differences the estimated coefficient for the lagged depended variable is always significant and may reflect a high degree of consumer loyalty or an important effect of word of mouth in determining demand of international tourism in brief the results suggests that tourism demand to canary islands must be considered as a luxury good and is highly dependent on the evolution of relative prices and cost of travel between origin and destination country

the effect of cash flow forecasts on accrual quality and benchmark beating when analysts provide forecasts of both earnings and operating cash flow they also implicitly provide a forecast of total operating accruals we posit that this increases the transparency and the expected costs of accrual manipulations used to manage earnings as a consequence we predict and find that accrual quality improves and firms propensity to meet or beat earnings benchmarks declines following the provision of cash flow forecasts we also predict and find that firms turn to other benchmark beating mechanisms such as real activities manipulation and earnings guidance in response to the provision of cash flow forecasts

total utility overlapping generations and optimal population the necessary and sufficient conditions for the solution to an optimal population growth model with overlapping generations using the sum of total utility per generation as the objective function are derived the solution for a specific steady state model and an example are presented and compared to that for a similar model without overlapping generations in both cases a positive but less than infinite optimal growth rate is found next since an additively separable individual utility function is used the differences between a total utility per generation model and a total utility per period model a la lerner are discussed finally the results of the total utility model are compared to those from a model in which the discounted sum of per capita utility is the objective function an extension to the samuelson lerner utility paradox concerning the optimal rate of population growth is discussed

a seasonal analysis of asian tourist arrivals to australia rapid economic growth in south east and east asia has seen a surge in tourist arrivals from this region to australia in the 1990s prior to the currency crisis in late 1997 the purpose of the paper is to use autoregressive integrated moving average arima models to explain the nonstationary seasonally unadjusted quarterly tourist arrivals from hong kong and singapore to australia from 1975 1 to 1996 4 as the tourist arrivals series display strong seasonal patterns deterministic and stochastic seasonality are examined as possible explanations for variations in the international tourist arrivals series the hylleberg et al journal of econometrics 99 pp 215 38 1990 test for seasonal unit roots is used to examine stochastic seasonality in the various series

income distribution policies with endogenous fertility the implications of endogenous fertility for intra generational welfare comparisons of alternative policies with respect to income taxation and family allowances are considered the interactions among the choices between leisure options labor force participation and fertility are shown to be crucial to the determination of both the signs and the magnitudes of the optimal child allowances and income tax rates the implications of a negative marginal tax rate and a negative child allowance are considered annotation

population size and the social welfare functions of bentham and mill abstract the consequences of the social welfare function of bentham and mill b m for optimal population size are explored when individuals utility is a function of own consumption the number of progeny and the welfare of those children

infectious disease and preventive behavior in an overlapping generations model abstract this paper incorporates prevalence of disease and agent s preventive behavior i e health investment into a small open overlapping generations model and investigates the dynamic behaviors of the competitive equilibrium allocation using the model it is shown that agents prevalence elastic behaviors which are supported from empirical studies can be obtained and that such agents behaviors cause the cyclicity of the spread of disease we also show that although the agents preventive behavior in a competitive equilibrium may be insufficient because of the existence of external effects a one shot medical aid from foreign countries does not necessarily improve the agents welfare in the pareto sense

modelling inbound international tourism demand in small pacific island countries abstractin this study we estimate inbound international tourism demand models at the individual source market destination and overall destination levels for fiji cook islands tonga and vanuatu f

population growth and economic growth a reconsideration abstract in an endogenous growth model endogenous fertility a neo malthusian relation emerges only when all exogenous variables are controlled for this suggests that conflicting findings in the literature may originate from heterogeneity in unobserved variables in cross country panel data sets

social security and endogenous growth abstract this paper examines the effects of social security on the steady state growth of per capita income in an endogenous growth model in which agents care about their own consumption the number of children and the welfare of each child it shows that an unfunded program may simulate growth by reducing fertility and increasing the ratio of human capital investment per child to per family income when bequests are positive also it may cause faster growth than funded programs especially when receipts from funded programs are independent of contributions when voluntary saving is positive funded social security is neutral if receipts are linked to contributions and most likely depresses growth if receipts are independent of contributions

endogenous fertility and optimal population size pareto optimality which is the standard criterion of efficiency in general equilibrium models takes population size as given and therefore cannot be directly applied to analyze the question of optimal population size the criterion then for optimal population size must be based on a more restrictive definition of optimality this paper extends peter diamonds 1965 golden golden rule growth model by assuming that individuals derive utility from their own consumptionand from their own children offspring are assumed to consume resources before reaching adulthood the authors show that the optimal steady state utility yields a higher population growth rate when it converges to the golden rule allocation they then demonstrate that a voluntary social security program in which the size of the transfer to a particular agent is directly tied to his own fertility leads the competitive allocation to be identical to the allocation corresponding to the maximum of the steady state utility of the representative individual

the impacts of australia s departure tax tourism versus the economy abstract this study estimates the flow and expenditure effects of the recent increase in australia s passenger movement charge pmc as well as the economic impacts on the australian economy and the tourism industry after discussing the nature of the pmc it outlines the types of industry stakeholder concerns as to its effects on tourism both before and after the recent increase it then presents a framework developed by the authors that can be used to distinguish the effects of the increased pmc on the wider economy and on different tourism markets a computable general equilibrium model is then used to estimate the economic impacts of the increased charge on different australian tourism markets inbound outbound and domestic the implications of the modelling results for the validity of the industry criticisms of the pmc are discussed the results confirm that the tourism industry will suffer though it also indicates that the australian economy will gain thus there is a clash between the industry and wider economic interests the types of issues addressed in this paper can inform policy making regarding the gainers and losers from departure tax increases in tourism destinations generally

population growth and human capital investments theory and evidence this paper presents evidence from empirical studies that test hypotheses derived from models of household behavior pertaining to the interrelationships among population growth human capital and economic development these studies have exploited quasi natural experiments embodied in the cross area variability in the wage rates of children in a number of low income countries the intercouple variation in the biological propensity to conceive and the geographically selective introduction of new high yielding seed varieties in india in the period 1961 71 the different varieties of evidence support the hypotheses that alterations in the returns to human capital associated with exogenous technical change lead simultaneously to increases in human capital investments and to reductions in fertility and that the costliness of fertility control is a significant but modest factor in inhibiting human capital investments