rational panics and stock market crashes abstract this paper offers an explanation for stock market crashes which focuses on the role of rational but uninformed traders we show that uninformed traders can precipitate a price crash because as prices decline they surmise that informed traders received negative information which leads them to reduce their demand for assets and drive the price of stocks even lower the model yields several implications such as that crashes can occur even when the fundamentals are strong and that the magnitude of the crash depends on the fraction of uninformed investors and the amount of unsophisticated passive investing present in the market

the influence of guided preparation on the long term performance of new ventures this article further develops a theory of guided preparation and new venture performance and tests its fundamental relationships on a sample of 159 new ventures that received outsider assistance 5 9 years earlier and had been in business for 3 8 years the results suggest that the long term growth of the ventures since start up is significantly related to guided preparation however a curvilinear model rather than a linear model was found to best capture the relationships of interest this suggests that there are diminishing marginal returns associated with guided preparation and that too much may even have a negative influence on performance

role of parental income in educational attainment during the post world war ii era u s governmental policy has often been based on the idea that in the absence of government action access to college and to a lesser extent high school education may be limited because of liquidity constraints the federal and state and local governments have instituted a number of policies to overcome these constraints these policies include the basic opportunity grants loan programs that have been issued at or below market interest rates the expansion of state supported colleges that charge below market tuitions rates and the inception and expansion of local community or county colleges that also charge below market tuition rates while there may be noneconomic reasons that explain these changes or their magnitude economic reasons that rely on differences between private and social costs and benefits can also be advanced these include a wiser societal choices made by a more educated society b recoupment of social costs from higher tax revenues c the reduction of private risks from lending arising from the pooling of risks thereby making the social supply of funds curve available to all individuals at the social discount rate and d state and local economic development reason c implies that in the absence of governmental initiative some children would be restricted from achieving their socially optimal amount of education because parents income and wealth limit their children s choices gary becker 1975 arthur okun 1975 and jere behrman and myself 1985 argue that governmental policy to reduce private borrowing costs to the level of social costs reduces inefficiency while increasing equity a rare result in the realm of economics in this paper i consider why parental income might influence offspring s educational attainment and the policy implications of such an influence

order of entry as a moderator of the effect of the marketing mix on market share order of entry has been demonstrated to have a significant effect on market share a number of explanations for this effect have been suggested in the marketing and strategy literatures to date the market share advantage gained by pioneers has typically been treated as a main effect an automatic regularity treating order of entry as a main effect implies that there is no penalty on the effectiveness of a brand s marketing instruments for late entry and that a late entrant can compensate for being late by dedicating sufficient marketing resources to their product in this study we investigate the influence of order of entry into a market on the effectiveness of a firm s marketing mix decisions by asking the question can followers compensate for not being first by their marketing mix decisions also even if they can compensate for being late does this effort become increasingly more difficult with later entry that is are there asymmetries in the effectiveness of a brand s marketing mix variables that relate to its order of entry into the market or as has been typically assumed to date is order of entry strictly a main effect an asymmetry exists for example if the market response to advertising is different for the first entrant versus the second or third entrant an asymmetry also exists if the effects of say a price change by the first entrant on the second entrant are different than the effects on the third entrant we develop a market share attraction model where the parameters vary as a function of order of entry our main contribution is in modeling the sources of order of entry advantage as asymmetries in the effectiveness of a brand s marketing instruments hence distinct from previous research we explain why there are inherent order of entry effects this paper is potentially of interest to researchers developing market share models and studying the effectiveness of marketing mix variables the substantive implication of our results concern directly academics interested in marketing strategy as well as the practicing marketing strategists we model asymmetries in the market response of early entrants versus late entrants using data from two durables and three nondurables categories with one exception all data sets are established from the inception of the category and hence do not suffer from the possible bias of excluding pioneers who have failed results show that asymmetries in the effectiveness of a brand s marketing mix variables are an essential source of order of entry effects we find that the main effects of order of entry are minimal order of entry effects do not necessarily lead to lower shares but overcoming these effects is not without substantial cost to the late entrant our results support previous research that has demonstrated advantages to early entry in addition we provide guidelines for how late entrants should compete later entry tends to reduce a competitor s price sensitivity suggesting that they not instigate in a price war with earlier entrants in order to gain share order of entry tends to decrease response to quality and to promotion to achieve the same impact on market share later entrants need a bigger change in quality and need to spend more on promotion our data did not support an asymmetric effect on advertising

collective moral hazard maturity mismatch and systemic bailouts the paper elicits a mechanism by which private leverage choices exhibit strategic complementarities through the reaction of monetary policy when everyone engages in maturity transformation authorities haver little choice but facilitating refinancing in turn refusing to adopt a risky balance sheet lowers the return on equity the key ingredient is that monetary policy is non targeted the ex post benefits from a monetary bailout accrue in proportion to the number amount of leverage while the distortion costs are to a large extent fixed this insight has important consequences first banks choose to correlate their risk exposures second private borrowers may deliberately choose to increase their interest rate sensitivity following bad news about future needs for liquidity third optimal monetary policy is time inconsistent fourth macro prudential supervision is called for we characterize the optimal regulation which takes the form of a minimum liquidity requirement coupled with monitoring of the quality of liquid assets we establish the robustness of our insights when the set of

asset stock accumulation and sustainability of competitive advantage given incomplete factor markets appropriate time paths of flow variables must be chosen to build required stocks of assets that is critical resources are accumulated rather than acquired in strategic factor markets barney barney j 1986 strategic factor markets expectations luck and business strategy management sci october 1231 1241 sustainability of a firm s asset position hinges on how easily assets can be substituted or imitated imitability is linked to the characteristics of the asset accumulation process time compression diseconomies asset mass efficiencies inter connectedness asset erosion and causal ambiguity

power and firm profitability in supply chains french manufacturing industry in 1993 the paper examines the relationships between the power of suppliers and buyers and the profitability of sellers who are situated in supply chains between both sets of firms a review of the literature on power in exchange relations shows there are several power concepts which may have a different impact on seller profitability and whose impact possibly can offset each other this may be the source of the conflicting evidence on this topic a failure to distinguish among the concepts may also lead to an underestimation of industry effects relative to resource effects as drivers of firm profitability the paper uses a new data base of the banque de france on french manufacturing industry the anlayses examine whether different power concepts may be empirically identified and what their relationships are with seller profitability the findings point to the existence of multiple power concepts and indicate that in the sample industry effects are more important than firm effects as measured by relative market share in explaining seller profitability the findings also suggest that buyer power explains a much larger percentage of the variance in seller profitability than supplier power 1998 john wiley sons ltd

optimal portfolio selection with transaction costs and finite horizons we examine the optimal trading strategy for a crra investor who maximizes the expected utility of wealth on a finite date and faces transaction costs closed form solutions are obtained when this date is uncertain we then show a sequence of analytical solutions converge to the solution to the problem with a deterministic finite horizon consistent with the common life cycle investment advice the optimal trading strategy is found to be horizon dependent and largely buy and hold moreover it might be optimal for the investor in our model not to buy any stock even when the risk premium is positive further analysis of the optimal policy is also provided financial advisers typically recommend that younger investors should allocate a greater share of wealth to stocks than older investors and all investors

entry order market share and competitive advantage a study of their relationships in new corporate ventures abstract this research explored the extent to which entry order the decision to enter a market early as a pioneer or to wait and follow determines not only market share but other competitive factors such as position and promotion that late entrants might hope to employ to overcome a pioneer s advantages the study analyzed data on 119 nonservice new corporate ventures consumer and industrial from the profit impact of marketing strategy pims research data base str4 based on a review of the strategic management and marketing literatures three hypotheses on the effects of entry order were generated and subsequently tested the first hypothesis states that pioneers achieve higher market shares than followers since a priori the market share for the pioneer has to be larger than the market share split among later entrants the issue is the rate at which the early entrant s market share will decrease as additional businesses enter what we term the degree of lateness effect later entrants have the choice of being an early follower that is entering the industry soon after the pioneers or waiting until the industry matures late entrants a high degree of lateness effect would indicate that early followers would gain higher market shares than late entrants an analysis of the data indicated that pioneers have significantly higher market shares than followers and that little degree of lateness effect existed between early and late entrants the second hypothesis states that pioneers will achieve differentiation advantages in such areas as product and service quality promotion and technological positioning greater than followers there is considerable theoretical and empirical evidence that pioneers are able to generate competitive advantages through name recognition image leadership the establishment of technical standards which make switching to other products difficult and superior consumer information advantages due to market lead times an analysis of the data indicated that pioneers have significant competitive advantages in product service quality and technology over followers the one area where pioneers did not have a competitive advantage over followers was in advertising and promotion the third hypothesis states that followers will achieve cost advantages greater than pioneers while learning curve theory suggests that pioneers will enjoy cost price advantages contrasting arguments can be made that followers can enjoy lower costs by coattailing on the pioneer s efforts to educate consumers develop a dominant design and create an infrastructure to span the gap from raw material suppliers to finished good deliveries we suggest that because pioneers are likely to have attained differentiation advantages followers will have only one alternative left compete on the basis of price and become the lowest cost producer an analysis of the data indicates that while followers do appear to have lower prices than pioneers followers do not have significantly lower cost structures this result implies a lower level of profitability for a follower strategy overall the results of this study advance the notion that new corporate ventures should enter as pioneers rather than as followers pioneers had higher market shares and stronger competitive positions higher quality more differentiated products and better service than followers followers appear to have few successful competitive options available outside of promotion for gaining market share

individual and opportunity factors influencing job creation in new firms we build on multiple theoretical perspectives to investigate the unique and joint effects of individual and opportunity level factors affecting job creation in new firms we tested hypotheses using survey data from individuals who transitioned from unemployment to self employment under the auspices of a german public policy program our findings reveal that an entrepreneur s breadth of knowledge has a negative influence on the firm s job creation whereas the entrepreneur s leadership experience has a positive influence however as the sector specific labor requirements of a business opportunity increase both breadth of knowledge and leadership experience allow founders to operate their firms with fewer employees

asymmetric price movements and borrowing constraints a rational expectations equilibrium model of crises contagion and confusion this study proposes a rational expectations equilibrium model of crises and contagion in an economy with information asymmetry and borrowing constraints consistent with empirical observations the model finds 1 crises can be caused by small shocks to fundamentals 2 market return distributions are asymmetric and 3 correlations among asset returns tend to increase during crashes the model also predicts 1 crises and contagion are likely to occur after small shocks in the intermediate price region 2 the skewness of asset price distributions increases with information asymmetry and borrowing constraints and 3 crises can spread through investor borrowing constraints

order of market entry established empirical generalizations emerging empirical generalizations and future research three established and four emerging empirical generalizations are identified below the first established generalization is that there is a negative relationship between order of market entry and market share second for consumer packaged goods and prescription anti ulcer drugs the entrant s market share divided by the first entrant s share roughly equals one divided by the square root of order of market entry third in mature markets market pioneer share advantages slowly decline over time while the emerging generalizations require additional research support the initial findings suggest 1 for consumer packaged goods order of market entry has a stronger negative relationship with trial penetration than with repeat purchase 2 market pioneers have broader product lines than late entrants 3 skill and resource profiles differ across market pioneers early followers and late entrants and 4 order of market entry is not related to long term survival rates future research topics are also dis

the relationship between firm growth size and age estimates for 100 manufacturing industries this study uses a sample of all firms operating in 100 manufacturing industries to examine some aspects of firm dynamics it finds that firm growth the variability of firm growth and the probability that a firm will fail decrease with firm age it also finds that firm growth decreases at a diminishing rate with firm size even after controlling for the exit of slow growing firms from the sample gibrat s law therefore fails although the severity of the failure decreases with firm size copyright 1987 by blackwell publishing ltd

age size growth and survival uk companies in the 1980s this paper examines growth and survival amongst quoted and unquoted u k companies in the period 1975 85 and compares the results with earlier u k and u s studies an examination of death rates shows that smaller companies had higher death rates but the largest and smallest companies were least vulnerable to takeover careful attention is therefore paid to problems of sample selection bias it is shown that smaller companies grew faster than larger companies that gibrat s law does not hold amongst smaller firms that age is negatively related to growth and that these results are not an artifact of sample selection bias copyright 1994 by blackwell publishing ltd

ownership structure speculation and shareholder intervention an institution holding shares in a firm can use information about the firm both for trading speculation and for deciding whether to intervene to improve firm performance intervention increases the value of the institution s existing shareholdings but intervention only increases the institution s trading profits if it enhances the precision of the institution s information relative to that of uninformed traders thus the ability to speculate can increase or decrease institutional intervention we examine key factors that affect the intervention decision the usefulness of short swing provisions and restricted shares in encouraging institutional intervention and implications for ownership structure across different firms institutional investors hold an ever greater fraction of corporate america s equity traditionally these institutions were stock pickers who tried to beat the market through trading if a firm whose stock they held seemed headed for trouble these investors headed for the door the wall street rule more recently some of these institutions have been using the ownership rights attached to their shares to pressure firms to act in the shareholders interest some have even argued that there is a synergy between gathering information for use in trading shares speculation and intelligently pressuring firms to improve performance intervention we argue that these motives can also conflict analyzing these motives allows us to predict which firms are most likely to attract institutional intervention which in turn has crosssectional implications for firm ownership structure recent examples suggest that institutional investors with large stakes sometimes intervene and sometimes follow the wall street rule so that there is indeed a choice to be studied in the early 1990s there was a wave of activism by a variety of large institutional investors among them calpers the california public employees pension fund putnam management a mutual fund manager and j p morgan a bank holding company these institu

does aid matter measuring the effect of student aid on college attendance and completion does student aid increase college attendance or simply subsidize costs for infra marginal students settling the question empirically is a challenge because aid is correlated with many characteristics that influence educational investment decisions a shift in financial aid policy that affects some youth but not others can provide an identifying source of variation in aid in 1982 congress eliminated the social security student benefit program which at its peak provided grants totaling 3 7 billion a year to one out of ten college students using the death of a parent as a proxy for social security beneficiary status i find that offering 1 000 1998 of grant aid increases educational attainment by about 0 16 years and the probability of attending college by four percentage points the elasticities of attendance and completed years of college with respect to schooling costs are 0 7 to 0 8 the evidence suggests that aid has a threshold effect a student who has crossed the hurdle of college entry with the assistance of aid is more likely to continue schooling later in life than one who has never attempted college this is consistent with a model in which there are fixed costs of college entry finally a cost benefit analysis indicates that the aid program examined by this paper was a cost effective use of government resources this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

investment and insider trading within a dynamic environment this paper introduces an inside trader to an economy where rational but uninformed traders choose between investment projects with different levels of insider trading when inside information has little value in future investment decisions insider trading distorts investment towards assets with less private information imposing net welfare costs on the economy when an insider s private information is valuable in making future investment decisions the net social benefit of inside trading can be positive the resulting increases in investment efficiency due to more informative prices is enough to compensate for the distortion induced by the inside trader when insiders receive private information more than once insiders may trade to reveal their private information at the beginning of their relationship with the firm this has two effects i more information is revealed in equilibrium and ii there is less chance than an uninformed agent will have to trade with the insider both these effects reduce the investment inefficiencies associated with insider trading as a consequence uninformed liquidity traders prefer to trade in a market with a long term insider this improvement in investment efficiency leads to a pareto improvement both the uninformed traders and the insider are made better off if the insider receives information more than once

the effect of liquid housing wealth on college enrollment this article uses short run housing wealth changes to identify the effect of housing wealth on college attendance i find that households used their housing wealth to finance postsecondary enrollment in the 2000s when housing wealth was most liquid each 10 000 in home equity raises college enrollment by 0 7 of a percentage point on average the effect is localized to lower resource families for whom a 10 000 increase in housing wealth increases enrollment by 5 7 percentage points these estimates imply that the recent housing bust could significantly negatively affect college enrollment through reduction in the housing wealth of families with college age children

innovation orientation environment and performance a comparison of u s and european markets much attention has been paid to the importance of innovation in ensuring the survival and growth of companies for u s companies a key issue is to what extent findings for the u s market can be extrapolated to non u s markets to provide a basis for designing innovation strategy similar innovation orientation types were identified in both markets using a sample of consumer businesses from the pims database a number of similarities and differences in associated environments and performance levels were also identified a major finding was that a high degree of product innovativeness leads to generally poor financial and market share performance in both markets but high rates of market share growth another major finding was that having pioneered in a market leads to effective performance results for the associated environments were more mixed in the sense that there was not a perfect correlation in the environments associated with the types in both markets

recent trends in u s higher education costs and prices the role of government funding it is something of a commonplace that government subsidies of the provision of a good or service affect the behavior of both suppliers and demanders of the commodity in question in the case of higher education attention has focused almost exclusively on the demand side focusing on the behavior of students and parents while the effect of such subsidies on the suppliers colleges and universities themselves has been strangely neglected this neglect is unfortunate for at least two reasons first the net effect of federal policy changes on demanders of higher education may well be influenced by these supply responses if for example universities systematically raise their prices when student aid subsidies increase as former secretary of education william bennett 1987 has alleged then the impact of the subsidies on student enrollments may be substantially reduced second and more generally if changes in the form and level of external support modify universities own resource allocation decisions assessment of all such policies becomes a more complicated matter cuts in federal research support for example may impact not only on universities levels of research effort but on the prices they charge and on the amounts of resources they devote to undergraduate instruction this paper reports preliminary findings from an effort to trace empirically impacts of changes in federal subsidy policies on universities resource allocation behavior i trends in higher education costs and revenues

does section 16b deter insider trading by target managers abstract this paper examines empirically whether the short swing rule section 16b of the securities exchange act deters managers from trading before mergers since a merger forces the sale of the target s outstanding equity insider purchases within six months before the merger cannot escape this rule we examine the 1941 1961 period when no other insider trading laws were enforced consistent with 16b s deterrent effect managers purchases drop significantly before the announcement before completion the decrease occurs only in the 1941 1955 period surprisingly pre announcement sales do not decline even though 16b cannot punish deferral of planned sales

measuring market power in the ready to eat cereal industry the ready to eat cereal industry is characterized by high concentration high price cost margins large advertising to sales ratios and numerous introductions of new products previous researchers have concluded that the ready to eat cereal industry is a classic example of an industry with nearly collusive pricing behavior and intense nonprice competition this paper empirically examines this conclusion in particular i estimate price cost margins but more importantly i am able empirically to separate these margins into three sources i that which is due to product differentiation ii that which is due to multi product firm pricing and iii that due to potential price collusion the results suggest that given the demand for different brands of cereal the first two effects explain most of the observed price cost margins i conclude that prices in the industry are consistent with noncollusive pricing behavior despite the high price cost margins leading firms are able to maintain a portfolio of differentiated products and influence the perceived product quality it is these two factors that lead to high price cost margins

a time to grow and a time to die growth and mortality of credit unions in new york city 1914 1990 one vision of organizational evolution suggests that old and large organizations become increasingly dominant over their environment a second suggests that as organizations age they become less able to respond to new challenges in this article the authors investigate which of these visions best characterizes the evolution of state chartered credit unions in new york city from 1914 through 1990 by analyzing the effects of organizational age size and population density on rates of organizational failure and growth the authors find evidence that old and small institutions are more likely to fail while young and small organizations have the highest growth rates

the measurement of effectuation highlighting research tensions and opportunities for the future in this paper we address issues related to the measurement of effectuation we identify and examine 81 empirical studies focusing on research tensions fundamental assumptions theoretical underpinnings boundary conditions units of analyses measures and temporal issues within the effectuation literature our findings suggest these tensions inhibit the accumulation of empirical knowledge we highlight the challenges involved in effectively measuring effectuation and offer solutions and recommendations for systematic knowledge accumulation

bigger may be better but is older wiser organizational age and size in the new york life insurance industry the author explores the effects of organizational size and age on failure rates among new york life insurance companies between 1813 and 1985 theorists tend to agree that organizational growth and aging processes increase organizational inertia but they disagree on the effect of that inertia on failure rates he finds that organizational size affects failure rates nonmonotonically but over the actual range of sizes large size almost always lowers failure rates he also finds a strong liability of aging this runs counter to ecological theories of liabilities of newness and adolescence an empirical test of the relative effects of age during periods of environmental turbulence and calm indicates that organizational inertia is especially problematic during turbulent times this suggests that the liability of aging occurs more through obsolescence than senescence at least in the population of insurance companies he investigate

overcoming the early entrant advantage the role of alignable and nonalignable differences prior research has focused on early entrant advantage rather than on theories that explain and predict how late entrants can surpass the early entrant s performance in this research the authors p

technology based adolescent firm configurations abstract managers and stakeholders of entrepreneurial firms have an obvious vested interest in understanding those factors that contribute to the success or failure of such firms insight into strategic and contextual factors related to success for 162 adolescent 5 12 years old firms competing within a variety of rapidly changing technology based industries results from this study analyses focus on pinpointing patterns of strategy context and performance in the first stage of analysis six nonmutually exclusive dimensions of strategy were identified 1 technology product leader 2 product market breadth 3 marketing sales expertise 4 quality service 5 customer alliances and 6 specialization second cluster analysis was conducted to group the firms on their overall pattern of strategic emphasis six groups clusters were identified each group corresponded with one of the following four strategy quadrants 1 defenders k specialists 2 entrepreneurs r specialists 3 analyzers k generalists and 4 prospectors r generalists subsequent analysis of variance demonstrates significant differences across the six clusters on three contextual variables environmental instability stage of product development and firm age and on six outcomes rd direct sales and support these firms compete on their reputation in their targeted market segment their ability to find and sell to a narrow range of customers and customer service this strategy occurred in relatively stable and mature industries and resulted in high performance in operating efficiency market development financial stability and overall performance sales growth was average cluster 2 n 12 spin offs reliant on contracts with original employers these firms represent an outsourcing opportunity for larger companies not desiring to develop in house expertise in a product area they are the youngest and the smallest and have products in the earliest stage of development their environment is relatively stable given the dependence of their large customers for their product they are average performers except for having relatively high operating efficiency they trade high performance for the security of long term arrangements with major clients cluster 3 n 39 marketing and sales expertise targeted at narrow market these firms likely assemble and package others technological products or if they manufacture follow the technological developments of their competitors they create value through their marketing and sales expertise and effort and through customer service support they face average environmental instability and stage of product development this strategy however creates insufficient value added for the long term viability of the firms they have low performance on sales growth market development operating efficiency and financial stability and also have low expectations for their future prospects cluster 4 n 23 technology leaders with a high degree of specialization quality and service these firms differentiate their products based on technology leadership in a specialized product domain where high quality and service are emphasized they compete in relatively unstable environments attributable to rapid technological change and are in an early stage of product development they are relatively small consistent with their narrow product domain they have the highest performance on r d results sales growth and future prospects and are very high on overall performance cluster 5 n 24 lacking in a clear strategic profile these firms lack any clear pattern of strategic activity although faced with average environmental instability these firms compete in the most mature product areas therefore while other firms are becoming more entrenched in their competitive positions advantages these firms are floundering they are poor performers and lack long term viability they score low on sales growth market development r d results operating efficiency and overall performance cluster 6 n 46 broad and aggressive product market reach with relatively high quality and service these firms pursue a full line of products sold through a wide variety of methods this approach evolved in a highly unstable environment due to rapid change and growth yet has a large number of growth opportunities they are highly successful in market development sales growth and financial stability they are also highly optimistic about their future prospects this identification of firm configurations can help managers and stakeholders recognize the relationships among strategy context and performance for young technological firms this should lead to more effective managerial decisions on strategic and contextual issues leading to better performance

cancellable insider trading plans an analysis of sec rule 10b5 1 rule 10b5 1 enables insiders to preplan future trades before becoming informed within a strategic rational expectations equilibrium framework i characterize an insider s unique optimal trading plan which balances portfolio diversification against exploitation of the rule s selective termination option because the rule reduces adverse selection and provides insurance against bad outcomes the rule generally improves welfare for both the insider who later becomes informed and uninformed outsiders provided there exists a sufficient degree of information asymmetry eliminating the rule s selective termination option results in an even greater welfare improvement under a large subset of parametric conditions received march 9 2018 editorial decision january 11 2019 by editor wei jiang

relation of dominant problems to stages of growth in technology based new ventures two studies investigating the growth patterns of new ventures are presented in the first study a stage of growth model theorized to apply specifically to technology based new ventures was develop

the temporal nature of growth determinants in new bank foundings implications for new venture research design abstract several authors have suggested the founding period as a critical time in the development of a firm arguing that the resource and decision choices made at this point have a substantive impact on the firm s future yet historically most studies have measured new venture choices considerably after the founding period we suggest that the uniqueness of the founding event is important and test its validity through the examination of two implicit assertions these implicit assertions are those of temporal stability and temporal locus of growth determinants

life cycle schooling and dynamic selection bias models and evidence for five cohorts of american males this paper examines an empirical regularity found in many societies that family influences on the probability of transiting from one grade level to the next diminish at higher levels of education we examine the statistical model used to establish the empirical regularity and the intuitive behavioral interpretation often used to rationalize it we show that the implicit economic model assumes myopia the intuitive interpretive model is identified only by imposing arbitrary distributional assumptions onto the data we produce an alternative choice theoretic model with fewer parameters that rationalizes the same data and is not based on arbitrary distributional assumptions

insider trading and the short swing profit rule abstract the short swing profit rule is a federal statute that requires insiders to forfeit any trading profit earned from a combined purchase and sale that occurs within a six month period using a multi period strategic rational expectations equilibrium framework i demonstrate that the rule tends to reduce both the amount of insider trading and the amount of profit earned by an informed insider from information based trades because the rule imposes a constraint on the insider s dynamic trading strategy nevertheless the rule increases the insider s welfare at the expense of uninformed investors outsiders because the rule inhibits risk sharing which leads to an ex ante wealth transfer from outsiders to the insider

a new test of borrowing constraints for education we discuss a simple model in which parents and children make investments in the children s education investments for other purposes and parents can transfer cash to their children we show that for an identifiable set of parent child pairs parents will rationally under invest in their child s education for these parent child pairs additional financial aid will increase educational attainment the model highlights an important feature of higher education finance the expected family contribution efc that is based on income assets and other factors the efc is neither legally guaranteed nor universally offered our model identifies the set of families that are disproportionately likely to not provide their full efc using a common proxy for financial aid we show in data from the health and retirement study that financial aid increases the educational attainment of children whose families are disproportionately likely to under invest in education financial aid has no effect on the educational attainment of children in other families the theory and empirical evidence identifies a set of children who face quantitatively important borrowing constraints for higher education

decoding inside information exploiting the fact that insiders trade for a variety of reasons we show that there is predictable identifiable routine insider trading that is not informative about firms futures a portfolio strategy that focuses solely on the remaining opportunistic traders yields value weighted abnormal returns of 82 basis points per month while abnormal returns associated with routine traders are essentially zero the most informed opportunistic traders are local nonexecutive insiders from geographically concentrated poorly governed firms opportunistic traders are significantly more likely to have sec enforcement action taken against them and reduce trading following waves of sec insider trading enforcement

dynamic effects of the order of entry on market share trial penetration and repeat purchases for frequently purchased consumer goods a time series cross sectional analysis of 18 successful later entrants in 8 categories of consumer packaged goods over the period from october 1983 to january 1988 confirms previous empirical findings that after correcting for differences in marketing effort later entrants suffer a long term market share disadvantage new evidence of the penalties associated with later entry are found in statistical estimation of models of cumulative trial first repeat and subsequent repeat purchasing significantly lower asymptotic levels are found in both trial and repeat behavior however based on this data the rate of approach of later entrants to their lower asymptotic performance measures is either equal to or faster than early entrants and provides evidence of a compensating partial effect accrued by later entrants

insider trading in a rational expectations economy it is often argued that efficiency considerations require society to freely permit insider trading in this article an opposing efficiency argument is formalized the model incorporates an investment stage followed by a trading stage if outsiders expect insiders to take advantage of them in trading outsiders will reduce their investment the insiders loss from this diminished investor confidence may more than offset their trading gains consequently a prohibition on insider trading may effect a pareto improvement insiders are made better off if they can precommit not to trade on their privileged information govemment regulation accomplishes exactly this jel 022 026 313 the traditional rationale articulated for insider trading regulation and other securities law is that such rules promote confidence in markets indeed president franklin d roosevelt justified the first major u s securities legislation by saying it should give impetus to honest dealing in securities and thereby bring back public confidence similar language is still invoked half a century later in connection with enforcement efforts against insider trading and in proposals for tightened stock

age order of entry strategic orientation and organizational performance abstract this paper proposes an empirical test of several hypotheses linking age order of entry and strategic orientations to a firm s performance three strategies are defined cost leadership strategy innovative differentiation and marketing differentiation the aim is to show that the impact on performance of both age and each of the three strategic orientations may differ according to a firm s order of entry into an industry following lieberman and montgomery s 1998 evaluation of their major contribution on first mover advantage we emphasize three points first we develop and test hypotheses related to early and late followers strategic orientations broadening the scope of traditional studies on pioneers second the model combines the dimensions of a firm s age order of entry and strategic orientations as well as industry conditions stage of the industry environmental unpredictability and technology diffusion to establish a contingent model of performance analysis finally the empirical study deals chiefly with organizational performance and not market share which is considered a typical advantage accruing to pioneers in addition the scope of the study 582 french manufacturing firms provides the means to fill a void in empirical studies because it is a broad cross sectional test on non u s data the firms are mainly private small to medium sized and single or dominant business firms therefore our assumptions must be understood as particularly applicable to this type of firm the results reveal important lessons for practitioners first we did not find a first mover advantage in terms of organizational performance in addition pioneers organizational performance is enhanced by the cost leader strategy contrary to our assumption emphasizing innovative differentiation for these firms second early followers performance benefits from innovative differentiation and marketing differentiation finally late entrants developing a cost leader strategy have a significantly higher performance all groups considered late followers are the firms most sensitive to environmental uncertainty and age effects our study clarifies the impact of a firm s age and strategic orientations on its performance depending on the firm s order of entry the implications of these results are particularly relevant for practitioners and entrepreneurs first a cost leadership strategy seems to be a guarantee for a pioneer to increase its organizational performance new ventures should therefore take into consideration the fact that newness and innovative differentiation might not be the best strategic orientations for high performance in the long run second as a second mover however developing a superior product and being able to market it efficiently appear to be the enhancing factors of firm performance third for both pioneers and early followers age does not significantly reduce their performance however the longer a firm waits before entering the greater is the negative effect of age on its performance this is due to the difficulty of resisting competitive erosion because pioneers and early followers drive the changes in the industry the identification of these effects should help managers and stakeholders to make more effective entry decisions to sustain a firm s advantage leading to better performance and higher probability of survival

finite bubbles with short sale constraints and asymmetric information abstract we present a finite period general equilibrium model of an exchange economy with asymmetric information we say that a rational expectations equilibrium exhibits a strong bubble if the price is higher than the dividend with probability one we show that necessary conditions for a strong bubble to occur are that 1 each agent must have private information in the period and state in which the bubble occurs 2 each agent must be short sale constrained at some period in the future with positive probability and 3 agents trades are not common knowledge we present examples of bubbles when the necessary conditions are satisfied journal of economic literature classification numbers c72 d52 d82 d84 g12 g14

transaction costs and asset prices a dynamic equilibrium model in this article we study the effects of transaction costs on asset prices we assume an overlapping generations economy with a riskless liquid bond and many risky stocks carrying proportional transaction costs we obtain stock prices and turnover in closed form surprisingly a stock s price may increase in transaction costs and a more frequently traded stock may be less adversely affected by an increase in transaction costs calculations based on the marginal investor overestimate the effects of transaction costs for realistic parameter values transaction costs have very small effects on stock prices but large effects on turnover

advance disclosure of insider trading using a strategic rational expectations equilibrium framework we show that forcing a well informed insider to disclose her trades in advance tends to increase welfare for both the insider and less informed outsiders advance disclosure generates price risk for the insider and to mitigate this risk the insider trades less aggressively on her private information consequently outsiders face lower adverse selection costs which improves risk sharing and increases welfare the drop in trading aggressiveness also causes market efficiency to decline furthermore pretrade disclosure encourages excessive risk taking but may either encourage or discourage managerial effort

migration benefit spillovers and state support of higher education this paper tests the hypothesis that benefit spillovers from public higher educationproxied by out niigration led to lower higher education appropriations by state legislatures a model addressing legislative appropriations tuition and out migration activity is developed and estimated the results support the benefit spillover hypothesis indicating that for each percentage point increase in out migration appropriations per student decline by 100 the results also reveal a bi directional relationship between tuition and state appropriations this is in contrast with the view that tuition is a residual source of revenue representing the difference between the institutional budgets endorsed by educational policy makers and the level of state appropriations

inside trading and incentives the traditional arguments against inside trading insiders take advantage of other investors inside trading profits overcompensate managers see ross 1979 too much information is collected if inside trading is allowed see fama and laffer 1971 hirshleifer 1971 emphasize the social costs of prohibiting such trading without explaining the private incentives shareholders have to sanction this trading the efficiency argument in favor of inside trading inside trading improves the functioning of the stock market because information as a public good will be underproduced unless those who acquire it profit through inside trading demsetz 1969 does not explain shareholders support of inside trading because the owners of a firm do not seek to improve the efficiency of the stock market by sacrificing trading profits to insiders several alternative hypotheses for shareholders failure to impose restrictions on inside trading have been advanced this paper analyzes shareholders incentives to sanction inside trading i show that if a manager of a firm is initially compensated with earnings contingent contracts then the welfare of that manager and all of the firm s shareholders can be improved by allowing the manager to trade on his private information this result is established in the context of a multiple principal the shareholders single agent the manager model with the manager s trades observable ex post and is robust with respect to the specification of investors preferences and the definition of stock market equilibrium the topic of this paper originated in conversations with steve allen his comments as well as those of nicholas dopuch daniel fischel sanford grossman merton miller robert verrecchia and other members of the workshops on the applications of economics and on accounting research both at the university of chicago are gratefully acknowledged 1 for a list of such arguments see references in manne 1966 chap 1

high profit strategies in mature capital goods industries a contingency approach high profit and low profit strategic gestalts in two different types of mature capital goods industries are examined multiple avenues to high profits are found within both types but they differ

death of the lethargic effects of expansion into new technical subfields on performance in a firm s base business this paper finds that industry incumbents that do not expand into new technical subfields tend to fare poorly in their established businesses even if the market for the established products continues to exist firms that expand from their established businesses survive longer and achieve greater subsequent market share than competitors that do not expand by some measures however a failed attempt to expand into a new subfield may be even more harmful to a base business than nonexpansion the study employs conventional and accelerated event time regression models to analyze market share and survival the sample which includes 371 incumbents in four base subfields of the medical diagnostic imaging industry between 1953 and 1989 examines performance following the emergence of five new technical subfields of the industry

college entry by blacks since 1970 the role of college costs family background and the returns to education college enrollment of black 18 19 year old high school graduates declined from 1980 through 1984 and then rebounded after 1984 this paper presents data from a time series of cross sections of 18 19 year old youths from 1973 through 1988 to test the role of family background direct college costs local economic conditions and returns to college in driving these trends the evidence suggests that on the one hand increases in direct college costs were driving enrollment rates downward throughout the eighties on the other hand dramatic increases in average parental education for black youths exerted upward pressure on college enrollment by blacks particularly in the latter half of the decade the net effect of these two factors contributed to the pattern of decline and recovery observed during the eighties

the effect of the availability of student credit on tuition testing the bennett hypothesis using evidence from a large scale student loan program in brazil we test whether the availability of student loans increases tuition costs the bennet hypothesis starting in 2010 there was a major ramp up in the fies a student loan program funded by the brazilian federal government fies s rules for eligibility produce a marked heterogeneity in the access to funding in different higher education institutions we take advantage of these rules and of an unique dataset with information on tuition costs at the major college level and document two facts using a difference in differences approach we show that relaxing access to student loans caused an increase in tuition fees we also estimate a structural model of demand and show that relaxing credit constraints reduces the demand price elasticity thus the mechanism behind the increase in tuition costs is an increased tuition insensitivity at least in part duarte belafduarte gmail com de mello joaompm insper we are very grateful to hoper educacao for kindly sharing their proprietory data we also thank luis braido leonardo rezende and seminar participants at eaesp fgv for useful comments all errors are ours