capital structure ownership and capital payment policy the case of hospitals this study examines effects of pertinent features of hospital capital payment policies on hospital capital structure decisions in a one period stochastic value maximization model separate models are developed for for profit and not for profit hospitals hospital debt to assets ratios are analyzed empirically using a cross section of data from the american hospital association although the effect on capital structure of hospital reliance on cost based reimbursement cannot be signed theoretically in both for profit and not for profit cases a higher cost based share leads to higher leverage factors associated with high bankruptcy risk e g earnings volatility cause hospitals to take on less debt the hospital industry exhibits two prominent characteristics that have unique implications for its capital structure first the majority of hospitals are organized as private not for profit nfp institutions since there is no applicable corporate income tax any risk of bankruptcy might imply that the nfp hospital would select an all equity hospital structure yet it is a stylized fact that almost all nfp hospitals have debt obligations at the same time there exists a sizeable minority of hospitals operated by government or as for profit organizations forprofit hospitals are subject to all tax privileges and obligations applicable to forprofit enterprises in other sectors thus the industry provides a laboratory for analysis of the effect of ownership on organizations capital structures a second unique feature of the industry is that almost all hospital revenue is derived from public and private insurers waldo et al 21 at least until very recently insurers in this industry paid hospitals on either a retrospective cost or

an analysis of interfirm cooperation theory and evidence from electric power pools this paper develops and tests a model for analyzing the extent to which an individual utility participates in a power pool it incorporates the benefits and costs of pool membership in a profit maximization model of an individual utility the study finds that coordination reflects the benefits and costs the degree to which other utilities are committed to the pool and the utility s behavior toward other utilities the results show that large firms are reluctant to pool with small firms and the us pools tend to be loosely coordinated policy implications are that regulatory commissions can be instrumental in coordination efforts and that interstate cooperation among regulatory authorities is needed to encourage pooling and obtain regional solutions to regional problems it is also important to reduce the transactional costs of pooling wherever possible 37 references 3 figures 1 table

market structure and fiscal policy effectiveness in a monopolistic competition macromodel with endogenous market structure the fiscal multiplier is shown to consist of two components the first depicts the response of output to a fiscal expansion through the conventional channels that disregard the role of market imperfections the second component captures the effects of firms market power as well as the policy induced change in market structure the latter effect which has not been taken into account in existing studies is shown to be quite significant in raising the fiscal multiplier even above unity and in improving consumers welfare when the labour market is competitive

what can we learn from the grand policy experiment lessons from so2 allowance trading stable url http links jstor org sici sici 0895 3309 28199822 2912 3a3 3c69 3awcwlft 3e2 0 co 3b2 tthe journal of economic perspectives is currently published by american economic association your use of the jstor archive indicates your acceptance of jstor s terms and conditions of use available athttp www jstor org about terms html jstor s terms and conditions of use provides in part that unless you have obtainedprior permission you may not download an entire issue of a journal or multiple copies of articles and you may use content inthe jstor archive only for your personal non commercial use please contact the publisher regarding any further use of this work publisher contact information may be obtained athttp www jstor org journals aea html each copy of any part of a jstor transmission must contain the same copyright notice that appears on the screen or printedpage of such transmission the jstor archive is a trusted digital repository providing for long term preservation and access to leading academicjournals and scholarly literature from around the world the archive is supported by libraries scholarly societies publishers and foundations it is an initiative of jstor a not for profit organization with a mission to help the scholarly community takeadvantage of advances in technology for more information regarding jstor please contact support jstor org http www jstor orgtue jun 26 16 25 17 2007

a study of the impact of sectoral shifts on aggregate unemployment in canada the recent trend in macro economic literature has been to explain cycles in aggregate output and employment in terms of unexpected nominal shocks only in these models the natural rate of unemployment is constant this paper diverges from this approach and following a recent paper by david lilien 1982 considers the impact of real as well as nominal variables the main findings are 1 a significant part of the fluctuations in the canadian unemployment over the 1957 83 period was caused by real shocks to the economy and 2 most of the transmission of the business cycle from the united states to canada is effected through real variables as well une etude de limpact de deplacements sectoriels sur le niveau de ch6mage agrege au canada dans la litterature macroeconomique recente on a eu tendance a expliquer les cycles dans le niveau de la production et de l emploi a peu pres strictement en termes de chocs nominaux non anticipes dans ces modeles le taux de ch6mage naturel est constant ce memoire prend des distances par rapport a cette approche et suit pluto t la direction suggeree par un memoire recent de david lilien qui considere l impact des variables reelles tout autant que celui des variables nominales les resultats principaux sont 1 une portion significative des fluctuations dans le niveau du chomage canadien entre 1957 et 1983 a et causee par des chocs reels subis par l economie 2 le gros de h1 transmission du cycle economique des etats unis vers le canada se fait par le truchement des variables reelles

variation in employment growth in canada the role of external national regional and industrial factors this article investigates the effect of external national and sectoral shocks on canadian employment fluctuations at the national industrial and provincial levels we assume that employment growth in each industry province pair depends on u s growth lagged canadian growth at the national industrial and provincial levels an aggregate shock and shocks specific to each industry province and industry province pair we estimate that the u s and canadian shocks account for two thirds and a quarter respectively of aggregate variation sectoral shocks account for only one tenth of aggregate variation but represent 30 of the variation from canadian sources

cyclical unemployment and sectoral shifts further tests of the lilien hypothesis for the uk abstract the sectoral shifts hypothesis and related implications are analysed using uk data within a consistent econometric framework with sensitivity analyses based on the concept of extreme bounds being carried out in order to assess the robustness of the results obtained

output effects of government purchases the theoretical analysis focuses on the distinction between temporary and permanent movements in government purchases under plausible conditions the temporary case involves an output response that is positive less than one to one with the change in government purchases and larger than that generated by an equal sized but permanent shift in purchase the equilibrium real rate of return rise in the temporary case but changes little in the permanent one defense purchases are divided empirically into permanent and temporary components by considering the role of temporary wars no temporary shifts in nondefense purchases were isolated empirical results verify an expansionary output effect for temporary purchases that exceeds that of permanent purchases the results for some other expectational hypotheses are found to be generally supportive of the theory

x inefficiency and interfirm rivalry evidence from the electric utility industry competition from the natural gas industry is shown to increase the efficiency of the work force of electric power utilities this conclusion is qualified to the extent that duopoly rivalry does not represent perfect competition in a free market as natural gas reserves decline however the impetus to improve efficiency will diminish but this will be offset by technological advances in both power generation and power transmission if regulators develop policies to encourage competitive interplay utility performance is more likely to improve 38 references 3 tables dck

capital structure and investment in regulated network utilities evidence from eu telecoms this article analyzes the relationship between firm financial and investment decisions and regulatory outcomes in network industries where regulatory opportunism is often viewed to lead to underinvestment we develop a model to describe the effect of an increase in leverage on regulated rates retail as well as wholesale and company investment we then test the model s predictions using a panel of 15 eu public telecommunication operators ptos over the period 1994 2005 our results show that the data cannot reject the model s predictions that leverage positively affects regulated wholesale and retail rates as well as the ptos investment rate moreover since leverage does affect wholesale charges that alternative operators pay to access to the incumbent s network infrastructure we also find that an increase in leverage is followed by a decrease in the number of competitors and by an increase of the incumbent s market share this suggests that the use of debt to discipline the regulator s lack of commitment within a vertically integrated network industry may somewhat impair or delay retail market competition but has a favorable counterpart in mitigating the underinvestment problem

foreign equity investment restrictions capital flight and shareholder wealth maximization theory and evidence this article provides a theory of foreign equity investment restrictions we consider a model where the demand function for domestic shares differs between domestic and foreign investors because of deadweight costs in holding domestic and foreign securities that depend on the country of residence of investors we show that domestic entrepreneurs maximize firm value by discriminating between domestic and foreign investors the model implies that countries benefitting from capital flight have binding ownership restrictions such that foreign investors pay a higher price for shares than domestic investors the empirical implications of this theory are supported by evidence from switzerland article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

temporary and permanent government spending in an open economy some evidence for the united kingdom abstract this paper investigates the effects of government spending changes on a small open economy in an intertemporal substitution framework if agents internalize the government s budget constraint temporary and permanent spending have different implications for wealth and consequently different effects on output and the balance of trade estimation of these effects isolates the different channels through which government spending can influence economic activity main findings for the united kingdom are that government spending i crowds out private spending ii is directly productive and iii when rising permanently leads to a negative wealth effect which induces a large rise in work effort

sectoral shifts and cyclical unemployment a substantial fraction of cyclical unemployment is better characterized as fluctuations of the frictional or natural rate than as deviations from some relatively stable natural rate shifts of employment demand between sectors of the economy necessitate continuous labor reallocation since it takes time for workers to find new jobs some unemployment is unavoidable this paper presents evidence that most of the unemployment fluctuations of the seventies unlike those in the sixties were induced by unusual structural shifts within the u s economy simple time series models of layoffs and unemployment are constructed that include a measure of structural shifts within the labor market these models are estimated and a derived natural rate series is constructed

capital structure with countervailing incentives the regulatedjirm s choice of capital structure is affected by countervailing incentives the jirm wishes to signal high value to capital markets to boost its market value while also signalling high cost to regulators to induce rate increases when the jim s investment is large countervailing incentives lead both high and low cost jims to choose the same capital structure in equilibrium thus decoupling capital structure from private information when investment is small or medium sized the model may admit separating equilibria in which high cost jirrns issue greater equity and low cost jims rely more on debt jinancing

effects of regulation on utility financing theory and evidence standing of these cross sectional variations might be afforded by the detailed examination of specific industry characteristics and their relationship to firms financing patterns the present study offers a methodology for approaching this issue the first step is to assemble joint theories of industry and financial structure in order to identify the ways in which changing industry conditions might be associated with changes in financing evidence on such simultaneous changes can then be examined in an attempt to identify the most plausible joint theory the methodology is used to investigate the effects of state commission regulation on the financing of electric utilities this is a natural candidate for study since regulation is such a salient feature of the industry in addition the regulatory system imparts some interesting special features to the very nature of utility capital structures inherent in all capital structures for example are opportunities for shifting wealth between bondholders and shareholders but under regulation these wealth shifting opportunities are expanded to encompass consumers as well finally the study of regulation has resulted in several relatively well specified theories of why regulation is imposed and what its observable effects should be in section i the different theories of capital structure and regulation are discussed and their joint implications are derived the capital structure theories include the perfect capital market theory the debt capacity theory and the financing hierarchy theory the regulatory theories include the public interest or market failure theory the political economy theory and the imperfect monitoring theory in section ii financing data from the early days of state commission utility regulation are used to try to distinguish

regulation of administered prices an empirical analysis of the microeconomics of price movement in finland 1972 77 curiously enough the concept of administered prices launched by gardiner means in his 1934 report to the u s secretary of agriculture still shows up in discussions on price policy and control today almost fifty years since it was coined and three decades after the discussion2 in which it should have been buried even more astonishing is the fact that its spin off administered inflation a term introduced by the kefauver committee in 1957 3 is still a part of economic language in some instances in the basic formulation that of means in 1935 administered prices are not assumed to be explicitly linked with market power but simply prices set by administrative action and held constant for a period of time means 12 p 78 although the hypothesis in this form was based on no economic reasoning of acceptable clarity it might still be accepted for the simple truism it is clearly some prices will change more seldom than others since for one thing costs of price changes will vary as is intuitively clear and as shown by sheshinski and weiss 17 pp 294 95 the optimal strategy of a firm in an inflationary environment will consist of longer intervals between successive price changes the higher the cost of such a change is under some very special assumptions risk aversion may also serve as an explanation to a decrease in the number of price changes relative to the number of changes in cost as indicated by the results of schramm and sherman 1 5 4 the administered inflation hypothesis as forwarded by means in his 1957 testimony before the kefauver committee means 12 pp 101 29 and by

how natural is canada s high unemployment rate abstract a reduced form price equation for canada 1956 1984 yields a stable estimate of 4 9 percent for the natural unemployment rate of men aged 25 and over with strong evidence against hysteresis once structural influences are accounted for the resulting profile for the aggregate natural unemployment rate rises smoothly from 5 5 percent in 1961 to a maximum of 8 0 percent in 1977 1978 and then declines rapidly to 6 4 percent in 1985 calculations based on an estimated production structure for the aggregate non energy sector of canada provide additional evidence against the excess real wage hypothesis and for the view that the recent fluctuations in canada s unemployment rate are mostly of the keynesian variety

private and government consumption with liquidity constraints abstract economic theory predicts that liquidity constraints and substitutability or complementarity between private and government consumption result in excess sensitivity of private consumption to income and government consumption respectively using annual data we estimate these excess sensitivity parameters for each of 54 countries and show that they not only have sensible values but are also correlated with several variables in ways consistent with economic theory our findings imply that the degree of substitutability between government services and private consumption depends negatively on the fraction of government spending that goes to national defense we also find that liquidity constraints typically exist and they are affected positively by output variability and negatively by the saving rate

global behaviour of a system with imperfect private public substitutability abstract empirical findings reveal that the relationship between private and public consumption generically differs from country to country it is substitutable for some while it is complementary for others the present paper incorporates this regularity into a simple growth model with public goods which affect utility and production the model casts off the standard assumption of socially constant returns to scale and as a result it generates many interesting dynamic features which do not arise with constant returns when the system displays increasing returns the dynamic path may diverge from an interior equilibrium in expanding oscillations suggesting that self fulfilling expectations could play an essential role with decreasing returns the interior equilibrium becomes a saddle point interestingly it turns out that the substitutability versus complementarity distinction does make a difference in affecting the stationary state and its transitional dynamics

the capital structure of a regulated firm we examine the equilibrium price investment and capital structure of a regulated firm using a sequential model of regulation we show that the firm s capital structure has a significant effect on the regulated price consequently the firm chooses its equity and debt strategically to affect the outcome of the regulatory process in equilibrium the firm issues a positive amount of debt and the likelihood of bankruptcy is positive debt raises the regulated price thus mitigating regulatory opportunism however underinvestment due to lack of regulatory commitment to prices persists in equilibrium

behavior of the firm under regulatory constraint a recent article by akira takayama discusses an earlier paper by harvey averch and leland l johnson on fair rate of return regulation of public utilities although takayama p 255 agrees with averch and johnson s general conclusions that a firm will tend to increase its investment with the introduction of an active constraint on its rate of return he criticizes the a j argument as being confusing ambiguous and in error takayama then attempts a clarification and presents a new formulation which leads to the a j result quoted above this comment will discuss several of takayama s criticisms in addition to showing that the so called a j effect cannot be derived from the basic assumptions made by both averch and johnson and takayama 1 we will show that the very assumptions used to prove the a j effect by defining the region of x require an assumption that the a j effect exists in the first place

the influence of the economic approaches to regulation on banking regulations a short history of banking regulations this article highlights the theoretical foundations of the regulations at work in the banking sector and examines their responsibility in the onset of the 2007 2008 financial crisis drawing a parallel between the main changes in banking regulations since the 1960s and the evolutions in the economic analyses of regulation over the same period it shows that the shift from the public interest theory of regulation that prevailed until the late 1960s towards the private interest theory of regulation accounts for the substitution of micro prudential regulations for macro prudential ones and explains a paradigmatic change in the conception of the regulatory instruments of the banking authorities it also shows that although the outcome of several factors the 2007 2008 crisis was also a consequence of the fact that the economic analysis of banking regulations supported micro prudential regulations that fail to take the global features and impact of banking activities into account and have proved unable to recommend effective solutions in a context of crisis

efficiency based rank assessment for electric power industry a combined use of data envelopment analysis dea and dea discriminant analysis da abstract this study discusses a combined use of dea data environment analysis and dea da discriminant analysis to determine the efficiency based rank of energy firms this type of performance evaluation is important because we often have a difficulty in accessing a large sample on energy firms to derive reliable empirical results the proposed approach is useful in dealing with such a limited number of energy firms often found in previous dea studies on energy industries in the world the proposed approach uses dea to classify energy firms into efficient and inefficient groups based upon their efficiency scores then it utilizes dea da to assess their efficiency scores and ranks in this stage we can find an adjusted efficiency score for each energy firm the proposed approach provides us with the following analytical capabilities all of which cannot be found in a conventional use of dea in assessing energy firms first the proposed dea approach can avoid zero in all multipliers on efficient energy firms by incorporating scsc strong complementary slackness condition so that it can handle an occurrence of multiple reference sets and multiple projections the dea result classifies all energy firms into efficient and inefficient groups second dea da applied to the two groups evaluates all energy firms by an industry wide evaluation not depending upon a limited number of efficient energy firms in a reference set as found in a conventional use of dea the analytical capability can reduce the number of efficient energy firms third the proposed approach can provide their efficiency based ranking scores finally we can conduct a rank sum test based upon their ranking scores to obtain a statistical inference as an application this study uses the proposed approach to examine the performance of japanese electric power industry we find two economic implications one of the two implications is that no major change has occurred in the operational performance of japanese electric power industry because of japanese sluggish economy from 2005 to 2009 the other implication indicates that there are strategic differences in the operation of japanese electric power firms after the liberalization

a quarterly model of unanticipated monetary growth output and the price level in the u k 1963 1978 abstract this paper develops and estimates using quarterly data from 1963 to 1978 a three equation model of the u k economy in which output is affected only by unanticipated monetary growth whereas the price level is influenced by both anticipated and unanticipated changes in the money supply expectations of monetary growth are assumed to be muth rational the model was estimated using efficient procedures and tests of the over identifying restrictions were favourable to the model specification in particular anticipated monetary growth was found to have no significant effect on output

government debt government spending and private sector behavior a current period tax reduction financed by issuing government debt shifts the timing of tax collection from the current period to the future if the future taxes implied by government debt are not fully perceived and discounted by the private sector there will be a net wealth effect that increases private sector consumption thus reducing capital accumulation and growth if on the other hand the implied future taxes are perceived and discounted by the private sector the current period tax reduction will be used to increase private saving to pay for the future taxes and government debt will be absorbed without any real effects on the economy the effects of government spending financed by current period taxation also depend upon private sector perceptions 2 if the benefits of government spending are ignored private sector consumption will decrease in accordance with the reduction in permanent disposable income to the extent that government spending is on consumption type goods that are perceived as substitutes for privately provided consumption goods there will be a relatively greater reduction in private sector consumption to the extent that government spending is on investment type goods yielding future goods and services that are perceived as substitutes for future privately provided consumption goods there will be a relatively smaller reduction in private sector consumption the standard approach to modeling private sector consumption saving behavior involves a rather asymmetric set of assumptions as to how the private sector perceives the various elements of government fiscal policy 3 current period taxes are assumed to be fully perceived but current period government spending is implicitly assumed to be completely ignored by the private sector in considering permanent personal disposable income the private sector is assumed to be forward looking in its assessment of income and taxation the stock of government debt is nevertheless included as part of the stock of private wealth the implicit assumption associate professor of economics graduate school of business university of chicago 1101 east 58th street chicago il 60637 i thank eugene fama levis kochin michael mussa paul evans and an anonymous referee for helpful comments i am particularly grateful to daniel benjamin for contributing many hours of discussion and laura lahaye who was a research assistant and valuable adviser on earlier drafts the theoretical debate on the burden of the debt has been long standing gerald o driscoll 1977 documents ricardo s nineteenth century position robert barro 1974 reopened the debate by introducing the fundamental issue of intergenerational transfers also discussed in merton miller and charles upton 1974 the empirical side of the debate was initiated by levis kochin s 1974 attempt to test for the effects of deficits on consumption and by martin feldstein s 1974 attempt to test for the effects of social security wealth on consumption other empirical contributions include jess yawitz and laurence meyer 1976 myself 1978 and j earnest tanner 1978 1979 with respect to the effects of government deficits and debt and barro 1978 michael darby 1979 and dean leimer and selig lesnoy 1982 with respect to social security wealth see also interesting recent papers by john seater 1982 who generates detailed tests of the effects of deficits and debt on consumption charles plosser 1982 who explores the effects of government spending and debt shocks on interest rates and feldstein 1982 who attempts tests similar to some in this paper see fn 29 2martin bailey s 1962 1971 development of the effects of government spending on private consumption and aggregate economic activity is the seminal contribution paul david and john scadding 1974 extend bailey s ideas and provide some supporting empirical evidence more recently willem buiter 1977 and myself 1978 developed models based on bailey s earlier work barro 1981 has an interesting paper on related issues see also david aschauer 1982 3the standard approach incorporates fiscal policy through the concept of personal disposable income and by including the stock of government debt as part of personal wealth see for example the empirical specification of albert ando and franco modigliani 1963 which has been the basis of most empirical consumption studies since and feldstein 1974 for one of the more influential papers based on the ando modigliani specification

fiscal increasing returns hysteresis real wages and unemployment european unemployment is widely regarded as a problem of excessive real wages this view as it is usually expressed carries the disturbing implication that there is a sharp conflict between the interests of those currently employed and the unemployed because it suggests that increases in employment will require reductions in the real wages of those currently employed the first part of this paper shows that increases in employment in europe are likely to be associated with rising real take home pay for workers because of fiscal increasing returns increases in employment and output will make possible reductions in taxes sufficiently large to offset any effects of diminishing returns to labor the second part of the paper considers alternative explanations for the failure of nominal wages to adjust so as to restore full employment and their implications for the efficacy of fiscal policies it concludes that under a variety of plausible conditions tax cuts would succeed in stimulating employment this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

service quality in the electricity industry the role of privatization and managerial behavior abstract this paper analyzes the relationship between privatization and service quality in the electricity industry and tests the hypothesis that managerial behavior is a significant intervening factor the sample includes 31 italian distributors over the period 1998 2004 their quality performance is represented by continuity of supply an aspect of quality that is both contractible and regulated results of the empirical analysis suggest that the transfer of shareholdings to private investors does not lead to quality degradation the results also suggest that managerial dominance translates into a reduction in supply quality this effect is likely to be particularly strong for public sector utilities

capital vintage time trends and technical change in the electric power industry beginning with tinbergen in 1942 economists have employed a time trend in cost or production functions to represent the rate at which new technology is introduced into the production unit in sufficiently flexible models of the production process the time trend may be used to obtain estimates of the rate as well as direction of technical change the use of the time trend is generally defended on pragmatic grounds as no theoretical justification exists for assuming that new technology is introduced at a steady rate that is independent of a firm s investment in r d education capital of a more recent vintage etc in recent years alternatives to the traditional time trend have been sought to represent the rate at which new technology is introduced research in this area has been concentrated in the telecommunications industry where the stock of r d or the percentage of calls completed by direct dialing or modern switching facilities have been employed as technological indices by nadiri and schankerman 32 denny et al 14 and christensen et al 7 the latter two studies indicate that explicit technological indices provide a better representation of the pace of innovation than the time trend this conclusion must remain tentative however as it is not possible to determine what is the true direction of technical change in these studies this shortcoming is overcome in a recent study by kopp and smith 24 who compare the performance of time trends and explicit technological indices in a study using pseudo data generated by process analysis models their results unambiguously support the use of technologically explicit indicators of technical change and indicate that the use of a time trend may not provide a consistent estimate of the direction of technical change this study does not however shed any light on the ability of a time trend to accurately reflect the rate of technical change the purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of alternative technological indices on the estimated rate and direction of technical change in the electric power industry the performance of a time trend is compared with that of a vintage index computed as the average age of a firm s steam generating capacity this latter index is consistent with the notion that new technology is embodied in newly constructed capital an assumption sup

cost efficiency of electric grid utilities in china a comparison of estimates from sfa mle sfa bayes and stoned cnls with the purpose of estimating the range of cost efficiency levels of the power grid sector in china we assembled a data set including 23 provincial power grid companies spanning from 2005 to 2009 and conducted an empirical study based on the sfa mle sfa bayes and stoned cnls methodologies empirical results show that the average values of efficiency from different models vary from 0 85 to 0 92 depending especially on the assumptions underlying inefficiency content further results demonstrate that there is exogenous technical progress during the sample period and per capita gdp of the province is negatively related to the costs of the electric grid company located in the corresponding province we hope this empirical study will contribute to the debate on an efficiency based regulation scheme which was introduced to the chinese electric grid sector on a pilot base in 2014

unemployment in canada and the united states reduced form unemployment equations containing aggregate demand structural and frictional variables are estimated for canada and the united states post 1981 increases in unemployment rates are explained almost entirely by aggr egate demand variables although structural sectoral variables make i mportant contributions to changes in the gap between the two countrie s unemployment rates for both countries the results support the fo llowing monetarist propositions monetary variables are the prime determinants of the business cycle exogenous investment shocks are typically of minor importance and macro policy has tended to be dest abilizing

the choice of technology and capital structure under rate regulation this paper examines a regulated firm s choice of technology it presents a model in which regulatory opportunism induces the firm to adopt a technology that gives rise to cost functions with higher variable costs and lower fixed costs than is socially optimal this distortion arises because the regulated price is positively correlated with marginal costs consequently a technology with low marginal costs implies a low regulated price and hence is unattractive to the firm debt financing is shown to alleviate this distortion because it induces regulators to increase the regulated price to prevent the firm from financial distress thereby reducing the cost to the firm of adopting technologies with low marginal costs when regulators restrict the firm s ability to issue debt the firm may have an incentive to goldplate i e waste resources this incentive disappears when the firm can use its most preferred mode of financing

the impact of sectoral shifts and the aggregate labour market on unemployment duration this study investigates the effects of sectoral shifts among industries on unemployment duration these effects are decomposed into two subeffects the overall effect and the specific industrial effect the former is equal for all of the unemployed in all industries while the latter depends on the tightness of the demand for labour of the industry in question in addition the impact of the aggregate labour market on unemployment duration is also explored the empirical results show that most of the overall and all of the specific effects are significant indicating that the sectoral shifts among industries as well as the aggregate labour market do in fact impact unemployment duration and that the effects on unemployment duration vary in terms of their tightness in the different industrial labour markets

the short run relationship between sectoral shifts and u s labor market fluctuations monthly data for the aggregate u s economy are used to assess competing hypotheses concerning the relationship between sectoral employment shifts and fluctuations in the unemployment rate it is shown that sectoral shifts are caused by major work stoppages aggregate fluctuations unrelated to permanent sectoral shifts a reallocation timing effect and allocative shocks at the sectoral level larger employment shifts are associated with higher unemployment during slow growth periods and lower unemployment during above average growth periods models are presented which demonstrate that both aggregate and allocative shocks are causes of cyclical increases in unemployment

debt and communications technology diffusion retrospective evidence this study has evaluated the relationship between debt in the capital structure of firms and the dynamics of broadband and digital technology adoption in the united states based on a large dataset on local exchange carriers in the united states over a contemporary historical fourteen year period from 1988 to 2001 using treatment effects modeling the impact of debt in impacting the levels of firms broadband deployment has been found to be negative and significant the primary source of debt in the sector has been in the form of arm s length corporate bonds and the assumptions of the monitoring hypothesis associated with such debt that lenders in the face of information and collective actions problems might not be able to control managers and hence invest less in highly technology intensive situations are supported by the data additionally the data set has been split into separate sets for two periods one between 1988 and 1995 for the period before the telecommunications act of 1996 came into force and the other set between 1996 and 2001 and the results have stayed consistent a test of the coefficients between the two periods has shown that the negative impact of leverage on broadband deployment has become stronger after the introduction of competition in the sector and this has suggested that the change in the institutional logics between the two periods has been of material impact in influencing lenders perceptions

risk management and the stated investment costs by independent power producers abstract evidence presented in this article suggests that in less developed countries the independent power producers ipps have an incentive to overstate the investment cost as an instrument to mitigate the country risk in greenfield electricity generation projects this technique is an effective risk mitigation strategy under the conventional financing and contractual arrangements in such markets it however promotes the use of less efficient power plants the distortion in the choice of technology results in economic losses over the life of the plants the findings of this research have important policy implications that can assist regulatory bodies governments and international financing agencies to adopt a more informed approach to the integration of private investment into the electricity generation capacity of developing countries

government spending and private consumption some international evidence this paper investigates the relationship between private consumption and publicly provided goods and services for a number of countries the empirical results show that in the aggregate private and government consumption are best described as complementary in the sense that an increase in one raises the marginal utility of the other the strength of this relationship is shown to be negatively affected by the government size these findings are robust across all specifications tried copyright 1994 by ohio state university press

time of use pricing for load management programs in taiwan power company load management programs have been actively performed by the utilities to reduce peak demand and improve system load factor in recent years the time of use tou tariff based on the peak load pricing theory has been one of the most effective load management strategies proper tou rate structure can actually reflect the generation cost of electricity supplying and give a guideline for customers to modify the power consumption pattern so that the system load factor can be improved the inverse electricity pricing rule can be applied as the basis of tou pricing in this paper the price elasticities of industrial customers of taipower system are solved by the statistical regression model with 2620 data samples

behavior of the firm under regulatory constraint a recent article in this review by averch and johnson 3 on the fair rate of return regulation in public utilities industries or more generally regulated industries attracted the attention of many economists in essence averch johnson argues that the introduction of an active constraint of a fair rate of return type would induce the firm to invest more than the original profit maximizing value of capital and this would create an inefficient allocation of inputs in addition to frequent citations in verbal arguments it has invited some thieoretical extensions by economists such as wvestfield 8 and klevorick 5 all of the writers seem to accept the basic theoretical foundations set by averch and johnson for example klevorick 5 recently proposed that the fair rate of return should be inversely related to the size of the capital of a firm the intuitive basis for this is apparent for it in effect creates a penalty as the amount of capital used by the firm increases however it seems to me that averchjohnson s original arguments are sketchy and contain somewhat ambiguous logic at several important points although their conclusion for which they tried to find empirical support that a firm will tend to increase its investment with the introduction of an active constraint seems to be correct it does not follow from their arguments in particular there seems to be a serious error which arises from confusing movements along a curve and shifts of a curve in section ii we clarify those ambiguities and if necessary correct the mistakes in the third section of this paper we shall provide a new formulation of the problem we shall find that the new formulation will give the same answer as averchjohnson namely that a firm will tend to invest more with the iiltroductioin of an active constraint it should be noted however that while the conclusion happens to be the same this was not the necessity for we needed a completely new formulation to obtain the old conclusion

regulated equity returns a puzzle abstract based on a database of u s electric utility rate cases spanning nearly four decades the returns on equity authorized by regulators have exhibited a large and growing premium over the riskless rate of return this growing premium does not appear to be explained by traditional asset pricing models often in direct contrast to regulators stated intent we suggest possible alternative explanations drawn from finance public policy public choice and the behavioral economics literature however absent some normative justification for this premium it would appear that regulators are authorizing excessive returns on equity to utility investors and that these excess returns translate into tangible profits for utility firms

the multiproduct firm quality choice and regulation a monopolist facing a market of heterogeneous consumers will distort the quality a rray this paper explores three regulatory remedies minimum quality s tandards mqs maximum price regulation mpr and rate of return re gulation rorr that can counteract this distortion mqs and mpr rais e the quality offered to consumers with a low willingness to pay for quality while mqs have no effect on the quality offered to consumers with a high willingness to pay mpr decreases the quality offered to this group if production of high low quality goods is capital i ntensive rorr increases decreases the quality offered to both grou ps copyright 1988 by blackwell publishing ltd

unemployment fluctuations in the united states further tests of the sectoral shifts hypothesis this paper presents further evidence on the importance of sectoral shifts by examining unemployment fluctuations in the united states over the period 1960 to 1991 extending previous research in three directions first by using a thirty industry decomposition of quarterly nonagricultural employment second by employing modern time series econometric techniques and third by using dispersion measures purged of both monetary and aggregate demand influences the authors findings support the view that sectoral shifts have been an important element of fluctuations in u s employment and also indicate that a given amount of dispersion has been associated with more unemployment during downturns than upturns copyright 1995 by mit press

sectoral shifts stock market dispersion and unemployment in canada considerable attention has been given in the last ten years to estimation of the importance of sectoral shifts in explaining short term fluctuations in unemployment recent studies have used us stock prices data to develop indexes of sectoral shocks less affected by cyclical influence than lilien s employment dispersion index two indexes of sectoral shifts for canada based on the sectoral dispersion of stock prices growth rates are calculated these indexes are then used in unemployment equations incorporating variables measuring aggregate demand shocks and structural changes in order to assess the importance of sectoral and cyclical shocks in the determination of the canadian unemployment rate the estimation leads to the conclusion that the major recessions of 1981 82 and 1990 91 have been caused by aggregate demand shocks however both types of shocks contributed to the 1974 75 recession while the mild recession of 1980 was accompanied by an important sectoral shock estimations also show that the mo

pricing efficiency under rate of return regulation some empirical evidence for the electric utility industry the authors test quasi optimal pricing rules for rate of return regulation for a sample of electric utilities they estimate the regulated cost function and demand equations by class of customer for the sample to yield the cost and demand parameters required to assess the utility rate structures the results indicate that the price structure of electricity by class of customer is not quasi optimal and that welfare improvement might be possible under alternative prices searching for the price structure which satisfies the criteria they find that commercial users rates have been too high relative to residential and to a lesser extent industrial rates they note that commercial uses tend to be less organized and more poorly represented in the rate making process 16 references 8 tables

regulatory and life cycle influences on managerial incentives an important controversy persists in economics concerning the appropriateness of profit maximization as opposed to various competing nontraditional theories of the firm 13 of particular interest has been the comparative relevance of the sales maximization hypothesis suggested by baumol 4 and others a typical methodology employed to empirically analyze the profit versus sales maximization issue has been to question whether the financial rewards of top executives are more strongly influenced by corporate profit or sales performance it is implicitly assumed that the firm has a well defined set of organizational goals and that the structure of executive compensation is designed to provide executives with a consistent set of incentives therefore should profit performance constitute a significant determinant of executive compensation support for the profit maximization hypothesis would be gained on the other hand if executive compensation is closely related to firm sales then the nontraditional sales maximization hypothesis would be supported in an early empirical analysis of the issue mcguire chiu and elbing 14 found that sales and compensation were more highly correlated than were profits and compensation and therefore that the baumol hypothesis seemed most relevant lewellen and huntsman 12 pointed out however that mcguire et al had neglected to consider the deferred and contingent stock options etc elements of executive compensation and in so doing had perhaps biased their analysis against the profit maximization hypothesis by correctly considering the impact of corporate performance on the total compensation of top corporate executives lewellen and huntsman found strong support for the profit maximization hypothesis and no support for sales maximization in fact so convincing were the lewellen and huntsman results that they seemed to resolve the managerial motivation issue in favor of the traditional profit maximization model more recent empirical analyses however have tended to suggest that the issue is far from resolved baker 3 boyes and schlagenhauf 5 and ciscel and carroll 6 have all

regulatory restructuring and incumbent price dynamics the case of u s local telephone markets prior to the telecommunications act of 1996 many u s states restructured their regulatory framework by replacing rate of return regulation with competition in both the local exchange service and local long distance markets and adopting price regulation price caps and price freezes using a panel data set of incumbent firm prices for three services i investigate whether price regulation and differences in entry conditions affect incumbent operators rate structures i find that competition has prompted a significant amount of rate rebalancing by reducing the amount of cross subsidization present in local telephone markets in addition the added flexibility of price cap regulation speeds the rate rebalance effects of competition

product complementarities capabilities and governance a dynamic transaction cost perspective the organization and governance of the transactions that comprise a bundling arrangement depend on the distribution of capabilities among firms and the amount of time during which the window of opportunity for earning rents is expected to remain open firms engaged in inter firm collaboration must undertake support transactions related to billing marketing customer support and product repair these support transactions differ from the core transactions that have traditionally been perceived as sufficient to provide a product bundle since support transactions create costs of their own the market may turn out to be an expensive means of governing collaborative arrangements undertaken for bundling purposes the telecommunications service sector provides an illustration copyright 1997 by oxford university press

sectoral shifts and aggregate unemployment additional empirical evidence 1990 sectoral shifts and aggregate unemployment additional empirical evidence applied economics vol 22 no 3 pp 331 346

sectoral shifts and canadian unemployment in this paper lilien s 1982 hypothesis that sectoral shifts in employment raise aggregate unemployment is tested using canadian quarterly data lilien s framework is extended to investigate regional labour market rigidities and to distinguish between industry shifts that are correlated with changes in aggregate activity and those which are exogenous to the overall level of activity the robustness of the results to various changes in model specification is also investigated i find that in canada exogenous shifts in employment between sectors do not have a significant effect on the aggregate unemployment rate this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

uk unit trust performance 1980 1989 a passive time varying approach abstract this paper indirectly tests the efficient markets hypothesis by analysing the performance of 30 authorised unit trusts from 1980 through 1989 the risk return relationship of the funds is allowed to vary in a generalised manner thus allowing for passive structural change in underlying economic relationships our findings suggest that 21 of the 30 trusts in the sample were able to supply investment opportunities to the individual investor which were superior to a buy and hold strategy

poverty trap and growth with public goods we examine an endogenous growth model with public goods by generalizing the assumption of linearity we have a steady state which is asymptotically stable that is multiple convergence occurs discretionary government policy is required to sustain economic growth

on the optimal and best sustainable taxes in an open economy abstract we study a representative agent open economy in which government provided services that enter the domestic production function must be financed with distortionary taxes and focus on the optimal size of government and the associated optimal tax rate if the government can precommit its actions it maximizes individual welfare by announcing and implementing a constant tax rate which we refer to as the first best tax rate this tax rate is time inconsistent and under discretion the government implements a tax that maximizes each period s output which may be higher or lower than the first best rate depending on whether the elasticity of substitution in production between private and public inputs is below or above one in this paper we characterize the best sequence of tax rates that can be sustained through trigger strategies this best sustainable sequence of tax rates is constant and lies between the first best and discretionary extremes

government as a discriminating monopolist in the financial market the case of china abstract we show that the many unusual features of china s financial markets are consistent with a government choosing regulations to maximize a standard type of social welfare function under certain conditions these regulations are equivalent to imposing explicit taxes on business and interest income yet should be much easier to enforce the observed implicit tax rates are broadly in line with those observed in other countries the theory also forecasts however that china will face increasing incentives over time to shift to explicit taxes

rate of return regulation and utility capital structure decisions a corporation s capital structure is a means for partitioning its return stream among different classes of securityholders and across different states of nature the primary thrust of capital structure theory has been to determine whether and how this partitioning affects the total value of the firm 1 for a firm subject to rate of return regulation however the capital structure decision may take on an additional dimension under such regulation the firm s output price is set by an outside agency so as to yield a fair return to providers of capital and if effective this process reduces monopoly profits but if the regulator s price setting rule depends on the firm s capital structure in some predictable way the firm may be able to influence price and hence reap additional profits by judiciously choosing its financing mix the purpose of this paper is to analyze possible price influence effects of a regulated firm s capital structure and to illustrate regulators attempts to combat them the determinants of a regulated firm s capital structure have been touched upon in previous papers gordon 8 elton and gruber 5 gordon and mccallum 9 jaffe and mandelker 11 meyer 14 and sherman 24 for example but that issue has not been their primary concern the present paper differs from those mentioned above by focusing its attention more directly on the capital structure decision this issue is of interest in its own right in view of the important position occupied by regulated firms securities in the capital market but the approach taken here also serves to highlight and extend some common threads in the previous papers in particular the results of these papers emerge as straightforward applications of the price influence principle and differences among them can be attributed to differing perceptions of the regulator s pricesetting behavior section i of the paper discusses the price influence principle in general terms and describes the circumstances under which it will alter a regulated firm s financing choice section ii presents three illustrations of how the general principle might work in practice depending on the price setting behavior of the regulatory agency section iii discusses regulators attempts to thwart the priceinfluence effect and conclusions are drawn in section iv

an examination of the effect of ownership on the relative efficiency of public and private water utilities the behavior of privately and publicly owned water utilities is examined by estimating a generalized variable cost function containing the regular characteristics of the neoclassical cost function without requiring that cost minimization subject to market prices be imposed as a maintained hypothesis assuming that unobserved shadow prices reflect the regulatory environment of the water industry tests for cost minimization are obtained by deriving shadow prices as functions of market prices the empirical results provide evidence that public water utilities are more efficient than private utilities on average but are more widely dispersed between best and worst practice

dynamic analysis of an endogenous growth model with public capital this paper develops an endogenous growth model with productive public capital along with private capital in a spirit similar to that of r j barro 1990 since the authors model includes two stock variables it has transitional dynamics unlike most of the previous studies on endogenous growth including barro s where concerns are restricted to the steady state analysis first they show that the transitional path is unique and stable second the character of the transitional path is explored third the authors show that the optimal tax rate is smaller than the rate that maximizes the national growth rate with a log linear utility function copyright 1993 by the editors of the scandinavian journal of economics