do conditional cash transfers for schooling generate lasting benefits a five year followup of progresa oportunidades conditional cash transfer cct programs link public transfers to human capital investment in hopes of alleviating current poverty and reducing its intergenerational transmission however little is known about their long term impacts this paper evaluates longer run impacts on schooling and work of the best known cct program mexico s progresa oportunidades using experimental and nonexperimental estimators based on groups with different program exposure the results show positive impacts on schooling reductions in work for younger youth consistent with postponing labor force entry increases in work for older girls and shifts from agricultural to nonagricultural employment the evidence suggests schooling effects are robust with time

role of industrial district externalities in export and value added performance evidence from the population of italian firms becchetti l de panizza a and oropallo f 2007 role of industrial district externalities in export and value added performance evidence from the population of italian firms regional studies 41 601 621 the paper tries to shed light on the export and value added performance of industrial districts by integrating information on the population of italian firms from the asia database of the italian statistical institute with balance sheet data for all limited liability companies in selected manufacturing industries the findings show that firms located in industrial districts specialized or not in the leading manufacturing activity of the district export more and have higher added value than firms located elsewhere net of the impact of relevant controls the robustness check undertaken on the agglomeration performance nexus detects as expected a significant relationship between dichotomous district indicators and global and industry specific continuous measures of agglomeration and specializat

labor market returns to two and four year college the paper examines labor market returns to a two and four year college education analysis of the 1972 national longitudinal survey of youth observation that the average person who attended a two year college earned about 10 percent more than those without any college education comparison with the wages of those who attended a four year college education

exploring the intergenerational persistence of mental health evidence from three generations this paper uses data from the 1970 british cohort study to quantify the intergenerational persistence of mental health and the long run economic costs associated with poor parental mental health we find a strong and significant intergenerational correlation that is robust to different covariate sets sample restrictions model specifications and potential endogeneity importantly the intergenerational persistence is economically relevant with maternal mental health associated with lasting effects on the child s educational attainment future household income and the probability of having criminal convictions these results do not disappear after controlling for children s own childhood and adulthood mental health

the effect of income on subjective well being evidence from the 2008 economic stimulus tax rebates this paper uses tax rebate payments from the 2008 economic stimulus to estimate the effect of a one time change in income on three measures of subjective well being life satisfaction health satisfaction and affect the income effect is identified by exploiting the plausibly exogenous variation in the payment schedule of the rebates using both ordinary least squares and two stage least squares estimators i find that the rebates had a large and positive impact on affect which is explained by a reduction in feelings of stress and worry for life satisfaction and health satisfaction there is weaker evidence of a positive impact

returns to foreign languages of native workers in the european union most of the literature on returns to languages is concerned with immigrants the authors study which uses the european community household panel survey for the period 1994 2001 infers returns to non native languages by native workers in nine countries of the european union the study differs from other studies that deal with the same issue in three respects first instead of using a dummy for each language they use the ratio of the population not proficient in a given country s national language and compare the results with the more traditional approach using dummies second they correct for time independent measurement errors in self reporting and find that the resulting iv estimates are much larger than those obtained by ols they also suggest that there is little room for time persistent errors and heterogeneity and that therefore their estimates should suffer ostensibly little from unobserved ability biases finally they estimate iv quantile regressions to illustrate how returns to languages vary at different points of the distribution of earnings

nature of transfers income tax function and empirical estimation of elasticity of taxable income for brazil abstractthis article aims to estimate the elasticity of taxable income eti taking into account the nature of transfers and their use as a redistribution package involving cash and in kind transfers to households in brazil our contributions are twofold first we provide a simple model with balanced budget government that reveals the role played by cash and in kind transfers on the labour supply and income tax revenues thereof next in order to estimate eti in the presence of cash and in kind transfers brazilian population surveys pesquisa nacional por amostra de domicilios pnad are used to explore a limited tax reform that was implemented between 1997 and 1998 this reform only affected the higher income tax bracket our findings suggest that in kind cash transfers are positively negatively associated with reported taxable income and precise estimation of eti requires estimates of both types of transfers last we estimate the eti for brazil in the range from 0 4 to 1 3 not different fro

twin picks disentangling the determinants of risk taking in household portfolios this paper investigates risk taking in the liquid portfolios held by a large panel of swedish twins we document that the portfolio share invested in risky assets is an increasing and concave function of financial wealth leading to different risk sensitivities across investors human capital which we estimate directly from individual labor income also affects risk taking positively while internal habit and expenditure commitments tend to reduce it our microfindings lend strong support to decreasing relative risk aversion and habit formation preferences furthermore heterogeneous risk sensitivities across investors help reconcile individual preferences with representative agent models

intersectoral innovation flows and national technological systems network analysis for comparing italy and germany abstract the paper compares the innovative structure and performance of italy and germany by using the concept of the technological system which is defined as the result of the interaction of four different components the industrial the innovative the commercial domestic and foreign markets and the institutional sub systems the analysis of the intersectoral innovation flows within the two national technological systems is based on an input output database rearranged in vertically integrated sectors specific hypotheses have been formulated and valid proxies for the variables studied have been used the final results have been obtained by using network analysis methodology and indicators this called for a dicotornisation of the original matrices these results take into account separately the existing differences between italy and germany in both absolute terms dimension effect and relative terms proportion effect the paper shows that germany is characterised by a higher level of systemic connection both in absolute and generally in relative terms the italian technological system seems to be segmented in a dualistic structure where few high tech sectors co exist along with a pool of traditional ones rather peripheral in the innovation flow network the german system on the contrary appears to be homogeneous with a more evenly distributed structure of intersectoral innovation flows the paper concludes by considering the effects of the introduction of other sub systems namely foreign market and public intervention while the former introduces further elements of differentiation between italy and germany the latter seems to perform a similar role in both systems

the estimation of human capital by administrative archives in a static and longitudinal perspective the case of milan this paper focuses on the estimation of the latent variable human capital hc at disaggregated level worker by available routinely institutional data flows in particular we utilize the lombardy region administrative archive employment centers of the province of milan collecting information about careers of workers in the private sector of the milan area and administrative flows collecting mandatory workers individual income tax returns filed with the national internal revenue service first we propose and empirically estimate hc scores in a static referred to 2004 framework by means of a realistic measurement model within causal relationships among endogenous and exogenous investment hc indicators furthermore the model also specifies a set of concomitant indicators that not belonging to hc investment indicators have causal impact on endogenous variables and on hc scores too second we propose a longitudinal analysis period 2000 2004 aimed to investigate how workers earned income growth rates vary over workers educational levels and other personal characteristics the empirical results of both analyses confirm the characteristics of the italian job market denoted by marked inequalities and knowledge regarding the process of school to work transition characterized by a weak incidence of education on longitudinal trajectories of earned income

monotone instrumental variables with an application to the returns to schooling for fifty years econometric analyses of treatment response have made extensive use of instrumental variable iv assumptions holding that mean response is constant across specified subpopulations of a population of interest 2 yet the credibility of mean independence conditions and other iv assumptions has often been a matter of considerable disagreement with much debate about whether some covariate is or is not a valid instrument in an application of interest there is therefore good reason to consider weaker but more credible assumptions to this end we introduce monotone instlumental variable miv assumptions holding that mean response varies weakly monotonically across specified subpopulations we study the identifying power of these miv assumptions and give an empirical application the findings reported here add to the literature developing nonparametric bounds on treatment effects 3 this paper uses the same formal setup as manski 1997 there is a probability space j x2 p of individuals each member j of population j has observable covariates xi e x and a response function yj t y mapping the mutually exclusive and exhaustive treatments t e t into outcomes yj t e y person j has a realized treatment zj e t and a realized outcome y 1 y zi both of which are observable the latent outcomes yj t

europe s tired poor huddled masses self selection and economic outcomes in the age of mass migration during the age of mass migration 1850 1913 one of the largest migration episodes in history the united states maintained a nearly open border allowing the study of migrant decisions unhindered by entry restrictions we estimate the return to migration while accounting for migrant selection by comparing norway to us migrants with their brothers who stayed in norway in the late nineteenth century we also compare fathers of migrants and nonmigrants by wealth and occupation we find that the return to migration was relatively low 70 percent and that migrants from urban areas were negatively selected from the sending population keep ancient lands your storied pomp cries she with silent lips give me your tired your poor your huddled masses yearning to breathe free the wretched refuse of your teeming shore send these the homeless tempest tost to me i lift my lamp beside the golden door emma lazarus 1883

does increasing women s schooling raise the schooling of the next generation the positive cross sectional relationship between the schooling of mothers and their children is substantially biased upward due to correlations between schooling and heritable ability as well as assortative mating an increase in the schooling of women would not have beneficial effects in terms of the schooling of children increased maternal schooling leads to reduced home time for mothers anticipating the consequences of investing in women s schooling requires attention to the role that schooling plays in the marriage market as well as to opportunities in the labor market for women

the determinants of earnings a behavioral approach we survey the determinants of earnings and propose a framework for understanding labor market success we suggest that the advantages of the children of successful parents go considerably beyond the benefits of superior education the inheritance of wealth or the genetic inheritance of cognitive ability we suggest that noncognitive personality variables such as attitudes towards risk ability to adapt to new economic conditions hard work and the rate of time preference affect both earning and the transmission of economic status across generations

self fulfilling expectations and economic growth a model of technology adoption and industrialization in this work the authors construct a model that integrates both industrialization and endogenous growth they feature the role of technology adoption in sustaining growth and achieving industrialization the authors economy contains multiple equilibria for an initial history they found that only self fulfilling expectations matter in selecting an equilibrium whereas history plays no role the authors equilibrium is shown to involve a threshold property when the economy starts above this threshold the economy is able to sustain growth otherwise it is not both the rate of economic growth and the process of industrialization increase gradually and approach an upper hound copyright 1998 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

estimating returns to education using twins in urban china abstract this paper empirically estimates the return to education using twins data that the authors collected from urban china our ordinary least squares estimate shows that one year of schooling increases an individual s earnings by 8 4 if we use a within twin fixed effects model the return is reduced to 2 7 but rises to 3 8 after the correction of measurement error these results suggest that a large portion of the estimated returns to education is due to omitted ability or the family effect we further investigate why the true return is low and the omitted ability bias high and find evidence showing that it may be a consequence of china s education system which is highly selective and exam oriented more specifically we find that high school education may mainly serve as a mechanism to select college students but as a human capital investment per se it has low returns in terms of earnings in contrast both vocational school education and college education have a large return that is comparable to that found in the united states

engaging students in quantitative analysis with short case examples from the academic and popular press following the completion of microand macroeconomics principles courses for which the majority of students are enrolled to fulfill requirements for other majors economics majors take two intermediate micro and macro courses a course in statistics econometrics and some field courses that may or may not include more quantitative methods john siegfried et al 1991 in a national survey michael watts and i found some differences between the way statistics and econometrics courses are taught and the way the other undergraduate economics courses are taught becker and watts 1996 in particular problem sets are used more in statistics and econometrics than in other undergraduate economics courses curiously however those applications are not based on events reported in newspapers magazines and journals that economists read how timely and relevant can problem sets be if they are not documented in current events ideally instructors set problems raised by their own research and consulting problems students can expect to see on their jobs after all the rationale for teaching statistics and econometrics outside a mathematics department rests on a belief that there is something special about economic analyses that is economists use of statistics is tied to the issues they face although the calculation of a mean and a median for example is the same in medicine and economics a discussion of the average duration of economic expansions since world war ii is more pertinent to those majoring in economics than is a discussion of average blood pressure or average time to dementia with mad cow disease the importance of economic tleory is often lost when mathematicians attempt to make situations real as seen for example in the chance course j laurie snell and john finn 1992 where a potpourri of statistical applications are presented with no disciplinegrounded analyses to teach students to apply the tools of statistics to actual situations and data encountered by economists there is little justification for examples involving the drawing of balls from urns flickng of spinners tossing of coins or contrived card and dice tricks yet these methods of generating data continue to be found in the activity based teaching and assessment discussants william greene new york university robin lumsdaine brown university kim sosin university of nebraska omaha

wage and labor supply effects of illness in cote d ivoire and ghana instrumental variable estimates for days disabled abstract sickness should make individuals less productive but there are problems in measuring this effect first how is adult morbidity measured in a household survey second how is the impact or morbidity on productivity inferred if earning is partly used to improve health self reported functional activity limitation due to illness is considered an indicator of morbidity for wage earners and self employed people to deal with both the measurement and joint determination problems an instrumental variable estimation approach is used where local food prices and health services instrument for disability days that reduce wages by at least 10 and hours by 3 or more

the cultural revolution and returns to schooling in china estimates based on twins abstract this paper investigates the returns to schooling in china for the cultural revolution cr cohort and the non cr cohort using a new set of chinese twins data applying the fixed effects model on twins data which helps to control for the genetic and family background effects this paper examines whether the cr cohort has smaller economic returns to schooling than the non cr cohort the empirical results in this paper indicate that the cultural revolution has not played a significantly adverse role in the returns to schooling

why does spousal education matter for earnings assortative mating and cross productivity spousal education is correlated with earnings for two reasons cross productivity between couples and assortative mating this article empirically disentangles the two effects by using chinese twins data we have two innovations using twins data to control for the unobserved mating effect in our estimations and estimating both current and wedding time earnings equations we find that both crossproductivity and mating are important in explaining the current earnings although the mating effect exists for both husbands and wives the cross productivity effect mainly runs from chinese husbands to wives our findings shed light on the theories of human capital marriage and the family

a human capital model of the effects of ability and family background on optimal schooling levels this paper develops a theoretical model of optimal schooling levels where ability and family background are the central explanatory variables we derive schooling demand and supply functions based on individual wealth maximization using nlsy79 data we stratify our sample into one year fte work experience cohorts for 1985 1989 mincer s 1974 overtaking cohort the years of work experience at which individuals observed earnings approximately equal what they would have been based on schooling and ability alone corresponds to 13 fte years of work experience yielding on average a rate of return of 9 6 percent and an average optimal 11 4 years of schooling

iq and stock market participation stock market participation is monotonically related to iq controlling for wealth income age and other demographic and occupational information the high correlation between iq and participation exists even among the affluent supplemental data from siblings studied with an instrumental variables approach and regressions that control for family effects demonstrate that iq s influence on participation extends to females and does not arise from omitted familial and nonfamilial variables high iq investors are more likely to hold mutual funds and larger numbers of stocks experience lower risk and earn higher sharpe ratios we discuss implications for policy and finance research

education human capital and growth a personal perspective this article reviews the literature on the relationship of economic growth to the education levels of the labor force the emphasis is on yoram ben porath s contribution to some of the issues in this field the endogeneity of schooling the role of the public sector as an absorber of educated labor and the importance of personal human capital created by investments in reputation and personal relationships the f connection

astronomics in action the graduate earnings premium and the dragon effect in singapore white u s and latin american currencies portray images of national independence heroes singapore s 2 dollar bill the most widely circulated since there is no smaller denomination shows students in a classroom listening to a professor with a university in the background underneath there is just one word education singapore s obsession with education miami herald 8 september 2009 i introduction since the groundbreaking work of mincer 1974 many academics have looked closely at the question of what the return to education might be 1 however because of the lack of data the literature does not have much to say about singapore even though a lot of research has been done for advanced countries throughout the world 2 3 in this paper we employ a recent survey from the singapore national youth council to study one aspect of this topic the return to university education in singapore having a university education is usually perceived to be good for one s career although the extent to which this is true has been a constant point of contention 4 this debate had relied largely on anecdotes instead of econometric research understandably so because data is not easily available therefore this paper hopes to offer some evidence on the causal link between university education and earnings outcome in singapore however identification is a formidable challenge as in any research that aims to estimate the return to education although the positive association between education and earnings is a virtually ubiquitous fact prima facie evidence of income gaps may misrepresent what the true return to education is because individuals tend to make educational choices according to their abilities such income gaps would contain not only the return that is due to education the quantity of interest but also the return on unobserved abilities which is the confounding effect over the years economists have sought to disentangle the causal effect of education from the confounding effect of unobserved abilities in the data but the existing estimation approaches are not easily adaptable here for example methods that employ within twin comparisons or changes in compulsory schooling laws cannot be implemented owing to data limitations and the lack of important schooling reforms in singapore 5 in fact the dataset used here was compiled for a different purpose than economics which is to provide a better understanding of singapore s youths from a sociological perspective given these issues a new estimation approach has to be considered in this paper we propose to exploit a consequence li liu and zhang 2012 of chinese traditions generating the so called dragon effect to study the causal link between university education and income in singapore chinese is the largest ethnic group and malays indians and eurasians are the main ethnic minorities according to chinese traditions there are 12 creatures in the chinese zodiac where each represents a lunar year in a 12 year cycle among them the dragon is the most auspicious creature and babies born in a dragon year are believed to be superior 6 because of this conviction the dragon year has seen upswings in the rate of birth not just in singapore but also in places where chinese culture is prevalent 7 for example figure 1 plots the birth rate from 1970 in singapore based on resident women aged between 15 and 49 8 while the fertility rate was plunging early on it did increase momentarily during the dragon year of 1976 there was another sharp increase in 1988 9 and then in 2000 which marks the highly auspicious year of the golden dragon figure 1 omitted the positive relationship between the birth rate and the dragon year provides the rationale behind the identification strategy used here as the dragon cohort is larger than usual competition for entry into university would be more intense leading to what is known as the dragon effect

estimating the economic return to educational levels using data on twins this paper relaxes some restrictions of previous twin based estimates of the effects of education on earnings first it estimates the earnings premiums associated with different educational levels second it estimates a piecewise linear relationship between the natural logarithm of annual earnings and years of schooling third the measurement error corrections are based on a less restrictive non classical measurement error model the estimation strategy implies that ability bias can be investigated separately in different parts of the educational distribution the linear relationship between the logarithm of annual earnings and years of schooling is rejected furthermore the results in the sample of identical mz twins indicated both that the ability bias could be of different signs and of different magnitudes in different parts of the educational distribution the twin based estimates in the sample of fraternal dz twins did not display any marked differences as compared to the cross sectional estimates finally the results indicated that the error corrected twin based estimates of the average return to years of schooling that rely on a classical measurement error model are upwards biased by approximately 30 copyright 2004 john wiley sons ltd

genetic variation in financial decision making individuals differ in how they construct their investment portfolios yet empirical models of portfolio risk typically account only for a small portion of the cross sectional variance this paper asks whether genetic variation can explain some of these individual differences following a major pension reform swedish adults had to form a portfolio from a large menu of funds we match data on these investment decisions with the swedish twin registry and find that approximately 25 of individual variation in portfolio risk is due to genetic variation we also find that these results extend to several other aspects of financial decision making

estimates of the economic returns to schooling from a new sample of twins this paper uses a new survey to contrast the wages of genetically identical twins with different schooling levels multiple measurements of schooling levels were also collected to assess the effect of reporting error on the estimated economic returns to schooling the data indicate that omitted ability variables do not bias the estimated return to schooling upward but that measurement error does bias it downward adjustment for measurement error indicates that an additional year of schooling increases wages by 12 to 16 percent a higher estimate of the economic returns to schooling than has been previously found copyright 1994 by american economic association

where has all the education gone cross national data show no association between increases in human capital attributable to the rising educational attainment of the labor force and the rate of growth of output per worker this implies that the association of educational capital growth with conventional measures of total factor production is large strongly statistically significant and negative these are on average results derived from imposing a constant coefficient however the development impact of education varied widely across countries and has fallen short of expectations for three possible reasons first the institutional governance environment could have been sufficiently perverse that the accumulation of educational capital lowered economic growth second marginal returns to education could have fallen rapidly as the supply of educated labor expanded while demand remained stagnant third educational quality could have been so low that years of schooling created no human capital the extent and mix of these three phenomena vary from country to country in explaining the actual economic impact of education or the lack thereof

are educated workers really more productive abstract this paper presents a new method for examining the productive nature of education it outlines an econometric model which simultaneously estimates an earnings function and a production function for workers and the firms where they are employed this approach permits a direct comparison to be made between the relative wage and relative productivity of workers with different levels of education using a unique data set from ghana two primary questions are addressed 1 are educated workers more productive than workers with no formal education and 2 do earnings differentials between workers with different levels of education reflect genuine productivity differentials the results suggest that education is positively correlated with productivity in ghanaian manufacturing and that firms pay workers according to their productivity

does compulsory school attendance affect schooling and earnings we establish that season of birth is related to educational attainment because of school start age policy and compulsory school attendance laws individuals born in the beginning of the year start school at an older age and can therefore drop out after completing less schooling than individuals born near the end of the year roughly 25 percent of potential dropouts remain in school because of compulsory schooling laws we estimate the impact of compulsory schooling on earnings by using quarter of birth as an instrument for education the instrumental variables estimate of the return to education is close to the ordinary least squares estimate suggesting that there is little bias in conventional estimates every developed country in the world has a compulsory schooling requirement yet little is known about the effect these laws have on educational attainment and earnings 1 this paper exploits an unusual natural experiment to estimate the impact of compulsory schooling laws in the united states the experiment stems from the fact that children born in different months of the year start school at different ages while compulsory schooling laws generally require students to remain in school until their sixteenth or seventeenth birthday in effect the interaction of school entry requirements and compulsory schooling laws compel students born

rates of return to four year university education an application of regression discontinuity design estimating the rate of return to university education is invariably difficult due to the problem of omitted variable bias using a regression discontinuity design we estimate the effect of four year university education on earnings and explore the pathways through which the effect operates our estimation exploits the centralized score based college university admission system in china where the minimum scores required for university admission are externally determined by the provincial governments our findings suggest that being eligible for four year university admission implies a sizable increase in earnings with the payoff being attributable to prolonged length of education and improvements in education quality although the quality effects may not be precisely estimated this article is protected by copyright all rights reserved

are all the good men married uncovering the sources of the marital wage premium a longstanding and yet unsettled question in labor economics is does marriage cause men s wages to rise cross sectional wage studies consistently find that married men earn significantly higher wages than do men who are not currently married however it is well known that inferring causal relationships from crosssectional analysis is inappropriate because of the biases introduced by unobserved heterogeneity as a means of circumventing this problem this paper uses data on identical twins to control for unobserved heterogeneity our estimates suggest that marriage increases men s wages by as much as 27 and that little if any of the cross sectional relationship between marriage and wages is due to selection in addition we find little evidence that the marital wage premium is a consequence of household specialization

economic aspects of human cloning and reprogenetics while most discussions of human cloning start and end with ethics this paper analyses the economics of human cloning i analyse the incentives for cloning and its implications for the long run distribution of skills and income i discuss models of human cloning for different motives focusing on those that tend to produce new human beings with improved ability i distinguish three cases cloning as a means of assisted reproduction for infertile couples cloning by fertile couples aimed at producing high ability offspring and finally financially motivated cloning the third case supposes that the creator of a clone can appropriate some fraction of the clone s future income even if this fraction is small the possibility of producing exceptionally talented clones with correspondingly high incomes might make it profitable and thus turn cloning into a form of financial investment an important consequence of these models is that to the extent that ability is genetically determined and cloners prefer to make high ability clones cloning will act as a form of what might be called unnatural selection following standard darwinian logic such selection will tend to increase the proportion of high ability people in society indeed under some assumptions the distribution of ability eventually converges to a mass point at the highest possible ability level under weaker assumptions it is shown that ability reducing genes are eventually eliminated these results do not depend on cloning displacing sexual reproduction or even being widespread they hold even if a small or even negligible number of top ability workers are cloned at a small but not negligible number of copies the paper discusses the plausibility of the models and their results in light on the evidence on marriage markets child selection human assisted reproduction and animal husbandry finally it is shown how the analysis can be used to help formulate policies toward cloning whether they aim at preventing it or managing its external effects gilles saint paul

parental wealth and adult children s welfare in marriage abstract many studies find that parental resources importantly determine children s human capital schooling returns and earnings the collective household approach suggests that in addition parental resources of marital partners may importantly affect resource distributions within marriage this paper presents empirical results consistent with this framework they suggest that parental wealth continues to play roles in augmenting welfare of children into adulthood beyond provision of human capital in early life cycle stages or direct financial aid during adulthood and that actual transfers from parents to adult children do not fully measure influences of parental wealth on behaviors and welfare of adult children

returns to education evidence from u k twins we use a new sample of uk female identical twins to estimate private economic returns to education we report findings in three areas first we use identical twins to control for family effects and genetic ability bias and the education reported by the other twin to control for schooling measurement error our estimates suggest a return to schooling for uk females of about 7 7 second we investigate within twin pair ability differences by examining within twin pair and between family correlations of education with observable correlates of ability including birthweight ability tests and reading scores our findings suggest lower ability bias in within twin pair regressions than pooled regressions third using data on twins smoking we show smoking reflects family background and using it as an instrument exacerbates ability bias this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

blowing up money the earnings penalty of smoking in the 1970s and the 21st century abstract we analyze the earnings penalty of smoking among swedish twins in two social contexts the 1970s when smoking was common and widely accepted and when there were relatively few tobacco laws aiming to reduce smoking and the 2000s when smoking had become more expensive stigmatizing and less common and when tobacco laws and regulations had intensified the results show that the short term earnings penalty of smoking was much higher in the 21st century than in the 1970s for men for women smokers had on average higher annual earnings compared to nonsmokers in the 1970s but lower annual earnings in the 2000s in the long run there was an earnings gap for men between never smokers and continuous smokers whereas there was a pronounced earnings bonus of smoking cessation for women the results emphasize the importance of social context and the long term horizon when evaluating the consequences of smoking for earnings

using unemployment rates as instruments to estimate returns to schooling i use state unemployment rates during a person s teenage years to estimate the returns to schooling a higher unemployment rate reduces the opportunity costs of attending school using the same 1980 census data set that angrist and krueger 1991 use i also estimate returns to schooling with a modified version of their quarter of birth instrument the estimates from the two stage least squares 2sls model using the unemployment rate and the model using the quarter of birth instruments are almost identical in addition these 2sls estimates are larger than the ordinary least squares ols estimates supporting this counterintuitive yet prevalent result in the literature

nature or nurture what determines investor behavior abstract using data on identical and fraternal twins complete financial portfolios we decompose the cross sectional variation in investor behavior we find that a genetic factor explains about one third of the variance in stock market participation and asset allocation family environment has an effect on the behavior of young individuals but this effect is not long lasting and disappears as an individual gains experience frequent contact among twins results in similar investment behavior beyond a genetic factor twins who grew up in different environments still display similar investment behavior our interpretation of a genetic component of the decision to invest in the stock market is that there are innate differences in factors affecting effective stock market participation costs we attribute the genetic component of asset allocation the relative amount invested in equities and the portfolio volatility to genetic variation in risk preferences

nominal gdp targeting with heterogeneous labor supply we study nominal gdp targeting as optimal monetary policy in a model with a credit market friction following azariadis bullard singh and suda 2016 henceforth abss as in abss the macroeconomy we study has considerable income inequality which gives rise to a large private sector credit market households participating in this market use non state contingent nominal contracts nscnc we extend the abss framework to allow for endogenous and heterogeneous household labor supply among credit market participant households we show that nominal gdp targeting continues to characterize optimal monetary policy in this setting optimal monetary policy repairs the distortion caused by the credit market friction and so leaves heterogeneous households supplying their desired amount of labor a type of divine coincidence result we also analyze the case when there is an aging population we interpret these findings in light of the recent debate in monetary policy concerning labor force participation

educational choice families and young people s earnings this paper presents two optimizing models of educational choice discusses issues of identification estimates earnings equations in the context of these models and presents conditions under which we can test one against the other the estimates indicate that education is endogenous for young people s earnings creating a downward bias in estimated returns from education that assume exogeneity identification and estimation relies on family background information from a special sample from the british household panel study 1991 95 which matches mothers and their young adult children our estimates favor a family model over an individual model and they suggest that parents allocate resources to education to compensate for differences in their children s earnings endowments

sectoral role change in transition china a network analysis from 1990 to 2005 in this article by using the data collected from input output table we conduct a detailed investigation on the evolution pattern during economy development of china from 1990 to 2005 by using network analysis at national cluster and individual level we find some interesting insights also in order to identify the difference between cluster levels we proposed a cluster centralization method to analyse the role of the cluster in the network this study shows that during the transition process of china there exist some similarity and differences in each selected time each period studied have some similar distributions of key sectors including the cores i e chemical industry nonmetallic mineral products construction business however significant differences also exists for example the 2005 system is characterized as higher degrees of systemic connection and hierarchy while the 1990s system has looser density and less centralization additionally the high tech clusters i e electronics and

the effects of human capital interventions on entrepreneurial performance in industrialized countries this paper provides a systematic review of studies on the effects of human capital interventions on entrepreneurial performance in industrialized countries we identify 21 experimental and quasi experimental studies published before september 2018 these studies examine the effects of business training formal education and entrepreneurship education their performance outcomes include firm profits firm size and entrepreneurial earnings the main finding across these studies is that these interventions do not have statistically significant effects formal education is the only exception showing positive effects on firm profits and entrepreneurial earnings yet these effects are small in magnitude evidence is inconclusive regarding effect duration these findings stand in stark contrast to correlational studies which tend to find large positive correlations between human capital interventions and entrepreneurial performance we therefore conclude that correlational studies tend to overestimate the benefits of human capital interventions moreover our estimates show that the interventions are associated with moderately low additionality

intergenerational transmission of poverty and inequality parental resources and schooling attainment and children s human capital in ethiopia india peru and vietnam abstractacademic and policy literatures on intergenerational transmissions of poverty and inequality suggest that improving schooling attainment and income for parents in poor households will lessen poverty and inequality in their children s generation through increased human capital accumulated by their children however magnitudes of such effects are unknown we use data on children born in the twenty first century in four developing countries to simulate how changes in parents schooling attainment and consumption would affect poverty and inequality in both the parents and their children s generations we find that increasing minimum schooling or income substantially reduces poverty and inequality in the parents generation but does not carry over to reducing poverty and inequality substantially in the children s generation therefore while reductions in poverty and inequality in the parents generation are desirable in themselves to improve welfare among current adults they are not likely to have

human capital vs signalling explanations of wages increases wages by directly increasing the worker s productivity this learning explanation is usually associated with human capital theory however it seems unlikely that learning explains all the wage differences associated with schooling and work history better educated workers are not a random sample of workers they have lower propensities to quit or to be absent are less likely to smoke drink or use illicit drugs and are generally healthier it is unlikely that employers make full use of differences in propensities to quit or to be absent or sick when hiring workers these characteristics are often not directly observed and the americans with disabilities act precludes firms from using either poor health or the likelihood of future sickness as a hiring criterion unless it is directly related to job performance however if low levels of education are associated with these unfavorable employee characteristics and employers are allowed to take education into account when hiring workers we would expect employers to favor better educated workers as a means of reducing their costs of sickness and job turnover in turn students will take these hiring criteria into account when deciding how long to stay in school students will choose a length of schooling to signal their ability to employers and employers will demand a minimum level of schooling

inequality and growth why differential fertility matters we argue that inequality and growth are linked through differential fertility and the accumulation of human capital we build an overlapping generations model in which dynasties differ in their initial endowment with human capital growth the income distribution and fertility are endogenous due to a quantiy quality tradeoff families with less human capital decide to have more children and invest less in education when initial inequality is high large fertility differentials lower the growth rate of average human capital since poor families who invest little in education make up a large fraction of the population in the next generation a calibrated model shows that this fertility differential effect is quantitatively important we also provide empirical evidence to confirm the links between inequality differential fertility and growth suggested by the model

returns to human capital under uncertain reform good guys finish last abstract this paper models the career decisions of agents heterogeneous in their ability facing the possibility of future drastic changes e g reforms affecting the demand for different professions supposing that the uncertainty arises after educational choices have been made by the cohort of agents we analyze their response to it depending on ability and educational attainment we show that the more able individuals tend to stay in their original profession while their less able counterparts are more likely to switch to an alternative occupation if reform does take place the more able agents will be forced to change careers since they switch late they miss the benefits of learning by doing this adverse selection has important implications for the analysis of labor allocation during transition from central planning to markets in particular it lowers productivity in the emerging market occupations reducing the benefits of reforms

birth weight and schooling and earnings estimates from a sample of twins based on analysis of a sample of twins this study suggests that birth weight is not related to levels of schooling that it plays only a minor role in the determination of earnings and that ability differences that are not removed in the within twins model of earnings are not biasing the results in twins studies such as ashenfelter and krueger ashenfelter o krueger a 1994 estimates of the economic return to schooling from a new sample of twins american economic review 84 5 pp 1157 1173 d 2004 elsevier b v all rights reserved

life cycle earnings education premiums and internal rates of return using norwegian population panel data with nearly career long earnings histories we provide a detailed picture of the causal relationship between schooling and earnings over the life cycle to address selection bias we apply three commonly used identification strategies we find that additional schooling gives higher lifetime earnings and a steeper age earnings profile in line with predictions from human capital theory our preferred estimates imply an internal rate of return of around 11 suggesting that it was highly profitable to acquire additional schooling our analysis reveals that mincer regressions dramatically understate the returns to schooling because key assumptions are violated

estimating the return to endogenous schooling decisions via conditional second moments this paper employs conditional second moments to identify the impact of education in wage regressions where education is treated as endogenous this approach avoids the use of instrumental variables in a setting where instruments are frequently not available we employ this methodology to estimate the returns to schooling for a sample of australian workers we find that accounting for the endogeneity of education in this manner increases the estimated return to education from 6 percent to 10 percent

what you don t know can hurt you or at least mislead you family behaviors unobserved heterogeneities and the determinants and impacts of human resources over the life cycle what one does not know in the form of unobserved heterogeneity can mislead one in empirical estimates a simple model of intrahousehold allocations illustrates the possible importance of unobserved factors such as abilities in determining human resources and their impacts the author reviews over forty years of studies primarily from latin america and the caribbean but also from elsewhere to illustrate the substantial empirical importance of unobserved heterogeneity with regard to preferences and intrahousehold allocations schooling returns school quality early life nutrition and program evaluation