why small centrist third parties motivate policy divergence by major parties plurality based elections between two major parties or candidates sometimes feature small cen trist third parties we modify the standard two party spatial model of policy seeking parties to incorporate a centrist third party and we show that the presence of such a party even if it has no chance of winning motivates the major parties to propose policies that are much more divergent than without the third party we derive explicit formulas for party locations at a three party equilibrium and provide necessary and sufficient conditions for existence ofthat equilibrium we show that over time the major parties can be expected to shift their policies in the same direction relative to each other but in the opposite direction relative to the minor party the predictions of this model are compared with estimates of party policy locations during appropriate periods in postwar britain for the past half century a small british party first the liberals now the liberal demo crats has occupied a policy position in between the two major british parties labour and the con servatives during much of the same period the free democrats in germany have held a similar posi tion between the social democrats and the christian democrats in addition recent american presidential elections have featured the candidates john anderson in 1980 and ross perot in 1992 and 1996 who had no realistic chance of winning and who were arguably located between the democratic and republican nom inees 1 what are the policy consequences of the existence of such small centrist parties or candidates on what political institutions do these consequences depend do these consequences benefit the policy aspirations of the centrist party or do they undermine these goals under proportional representation it is well known that a small centrist party such as the free democrats in germany may hold the balance of power bargaining with each of the major players as they attempt to form governing coalitions but in a plurality based system as in britain or the united states the consequences are far

do central banks respond to exchange rate movements a structural investigation abstract we estimate a small scale structural general equilibrium model of a small open economy using bayesian methods our main focus is the conduct of monetary policy in australia canada new zealand and the uk we consider generic taylor type rules where the monetary authority reacts in response to output inflation and exchange rate movements we perform posterior odds tests to investigate the hypothesis whether central banks do target exchange rates the main result of this paper is that the central banks of australia and new zealand do not whereas the bank of canada and the bank of england do include the nominal exchange rate in its policy rule this result is robust for various specification of the policy rule we also find that terms of trade movements do not contribute significantly to domestic business cycles

monetary policy and exchange rate volatility in a small open economy we lay out a small open economy version of the calvo sticky price model and show how the equilibrium dynamics can be reduced to a simple representation in domestic inflation and the output gap we use the resulting framework to analyse the macroeconomic implications of three alternative rulebased policy regimes for the small open economy domestic inflation and cpi based taylor rules and an exchange rate peg we show that a key difference among these regimes lies in the relative amount of exchange rate volatility that they entail we also discuss a special case for which domestic inflation targeting constitutes the optimal policy and where a simple second order approximation to the utility of the representative consumer can be derived and used to evaluate the welfare losses associated with the suboptimal rules

salary arbitration and pre arbitration negotiation in major league baseball two assumptions in this analysis of baseball salary arbitration are that 1 players and clubs to serve their interests in pre arbitration negotiation submit final offers to maximize and minimize

perfect equilibria in a model of bargaining with arbitration abstract we consider an alternating offer bargaining model in which the players may agree to call in an arbitrator in case of disagreement the main message of our study is that the mere presence of an arbitrator who can only become active with the consent of both parties in the background of negotiations may entirely drive their outcome we compare our results with those obtained in models with outside options journal of economic literature classification number c78

north south trade and capital flows in a ricardian model of accumulation abstract a class based asymmetric general equilibrium model of the world economy is developed to trace the trajectory of the north south terms of trade the world profit rate the northern real wage and the level of southern employment in the presence of capital accumulation and technical progress it is shown that i accumulation must be accompanied by a continuing deterioration in the terms of trade of the south and may entail a cumulative contraction in its level of employment and ii technical progress in the south will of necessity produce a long run worsening of its terms of trade and assuming world demand for southern goods is priceinelastic of its level of unemployment

arbitration and bargaining across the pacific this paper reports laboratory experiments comparing arbitration behavior between and across two countries with extensive trade relations the united states and japan besides comparing disputes in both locations we evaluate disputes between them while we find nominal differences between the countries we observe significant changes in both groups behavior when facing someone from the other country specifically americans seek larger profits when facing a japanese counterpart and japanese subjects settle more frequently with an american counterpart our results suggest that the literature on bargaining behavior across cultures paints an incomplete picture of international comparisons by failing to consider bargaining interactions

equilibrium strategies for final offer arbitration there is no median convergence final offer arbitration is a procedure for settling disputes between two parties in which an arbitrator chooses the final offer of the party closest to what he considers a fair settlement this procedure is modeled as a two person zero sum game of imperfect information in which the parties are assumed to know the probability distribution of the arbitrator s fair settlements and to make bids in an infinite strategy space that maximize their expected payoffs necessary and sufficient conditions for there to be local and global equilibria in pure strategies are derived and necessary conditions for mixed strategies in a particular case are found such equilibria when they exist in pure strategies represent bids which are symmetric about the median and for most common distributions are separated from one another by two or more standard deviations this finding suggests that final offer arbitration may not accomplish its avowed purpose of inducing the two parties to converge on what they perceive to be t

europe s industrialization and colonial underdevelopment in the light of ricardo s corn model abstract the paper discusses the dynamics of sectoral resource allocation in an extension of ricardo s corn model to a north south world system it is shown that free trade and capital mobility in the presence of capital accumulation must entail in the flexible wage metropolis a secular shift of resources out of agriculture into manufacturing accompanied by real wage growth in the labor surplus colonies a necessary expansion of commerical agriculture but an ambiguous evolution of manufacturing output and employment giving rise to the possibility of a secular contraction in overall colonial market employment

globalization party positions and the median voter the authors argue that the effects of economic globalization on social democratic parties in western europe are conditional on the position of the median voter if the median is far enough to the right such parties will adopt business friendly policies because they are required to win office only when the median is relatively far to the left will globalization constrain social democratic parties forcing them to adopt policies further to the right in order to retain credibility it is on this basis the authors argue that empirical studies are misspecified unless they include an interaction between measures of globalization and the position of the median in addition to presenting formal theoretical arguments the article reports empirical findings from fifteen countries in the period from 1973 to 2002 that support the conclusion that the effects of globalization are indeed contingent on the median the authors find that the effects of globalization are significant for social democratic parties only in circumstances in which the median is relatively far to the left

arbitration procedures with multiple arbitrators abstract we consider two final offer arbitration procedures in the case where there is more than one arbitrator two players labeled 1 and 2 and interpreted here as labor and management respectively are in dispute about an increase in the wage rate they submit final offers to a referee there are n arbitrators each of the arbitrators has her own assessment and selects the offer which is closest to her assessment after that each arbitrator informs the referee about her decision the referee counts the votes and declares the player obtaining the most votes to be the winner under the second arbitration scheme the referee takes into account only the assessments which lie between the players offers the game is modeled as a zero sum game the nash equilibrium in this arbitration game is derived

a comparison of conventional final offer and combined arbitration for dispute resolution two widely used forms of arbitration are conventional arbitration in which the arbitrator makes an unconstrained settlement choice and final offer arbitration in which the arbitrator must choose between disputants final offers under an innovative as yet unused approach called combined arbitration if the arbitrator s notion of a fair settlement lies between the disputants final offers final offer arbitration rules are used otherwise conventional arbitration rules are used theoretically by combining the risks that the two standard forms of arbitration pose for disputants who do not voluntarily settle combined arbitration should generate convergent final offers the results of this controlled laboratory study show however that dispute rates are highest in combined arbitration and lowest in conventional arbitration these results challenge the theoretical predictions for combined arbitration as well as claims that final offer arbitration should reduce disputes compared to conventional arbitration the results are however consistent with a simple theory of disputant optimism

identifying monetary policy in a small open economy under flexible exchange rates abstract previous empirical study on the effects of monetary policy shocks in small open economies has generated puzzling dynamic responses in various macroeconomic variables this paper argues that these puzzles derive from an identification of monetary policy that is inappropriate for such economies to remedy this it is proposed that a structural model be estimated to explicitly account for the features of the small open economy such a model is applied to canada with tightly estimated results overall the dynamic responses to the identified monetary policy shock are consistent with standard theory and highlight the exchange rate as a transmission mechanism

the transmission of international shocks to the uk estimates based on a time varying factor augmented var the aim of this paper is to gauge the importance of foreign demand supply and interest rate shocks on the uk economy and assess how their role has changed over time to that end we devise a time varying factor augmented var model that captures the relationship between 17 industrialised countries and the uk and accounts for any temporal evolution in this relationship the response of uk macroeconomic variables to a foreign interest rate shock is estimated to have changed significantly since the early 1990s international demand shocks play an important role in driving world and uk real activity especially during the recent recession

the transmission of international shocks a factor augmented var approach the empirical literature on the transmission of international shocks is based on small scale vars in this paper we use a large panel of data for 17 industrialized countries to investigate the international transmission mechanism and revisit the anomalies that arise in the empirical literature we propose a factor augmented var favar that extends the model in bernanke boivin and eliasz 2003 to the open economy the main results can be summarized as follows first the dynamic effects on the uk economy of an unanticipated fall of short term interest rates in the rest of the world are real house price inflation investment gdp and consumption growth peak after one year wages peak after two years cpi and gdp deflator inflation peak during the third year second a positive international supply shock makes the distribution of the components of the uk consumption deflator negatively skewed third in response to a domestic monetary shock we find no evidence of the exchange rate and liquidity puzzles and little evidence of the forward discount and price anomalies

arbitration and conflict resolution in labor management bargaining compulsory arbitration is frequently employed to resolve labor management bargaining disputes when the union is legally prohibited as are for example many public employees unions from striking in this form of arbitration an arbitrator is empowered to impose a settlement on the bargaining parties if their negotiations break down various compulsory arbitration schemes are now in use in many states including alaska connecticut iowa maine massachusetts michigan minnesota nebraska nevada new jersey new york oregon pennsylvania rhode island south dakota washington wisconsin and wyoming but there has been little formal analysis of the various schemes that are employed in these states and as a result the basis available for choice among them remains incomplete this paper classifies the theoretical problems that must be resolved before a more careful comparison of these compulsory arbitration schemes is possible provides a brief overview of the work that has been done on each of these problems and indicates what appear to be the most promising directions for future research along these lines four kinds of compulsory arbitration are considered here conventional ccmpulsory arbitration cca in which the arbitrator imposes a settlement of his unrestricted choice if negotiations break down finaloffer arbitration foa in which the arbitrator must choose without compromise between bargainers final offers if negotiations break down multiple foa a variant of foa originally suggested by donn and on occasion issue by issue foa which is like simple foa except that the arbitrator is permitted to fashion his settlement from the components of bargainers final offers cca simple foa and issue by issue foa are already in widespread use while multiple foa which is similar but not identical to a scheme used in eugene oregon has been suggested by donn and my 1979a article as an improvement on simple foa in the literature of industrial labor relations compulsory arbitration schemes have been judged primarily by three criteria the quality of the arbitral settlements they generate when negotiations break down their freedom from bias which is usually defined as the distortion of negotiated settlements away from what they would have been in ordinary bargaining with both strikes and lockouts permitted and the extent to which they create environments conducive to negotiated settlements an integrated analysis in which bargainers choosing their stategies consider the effects of their actions on negotiated and arbitral settlements as well as on the probabilities of these possibilities would be ideal but in beginning the study of the effects of arbitration schemes it is convenient and probably not misleading to simplify the problem by dividing it thus i shall propose separate analyses of the quality of arbitral settlements under noncooperative behavioral assumptions the bias of negotiated settlements under cooperative assumptions and the probability of a negotiated settlement under a blend of both noncooperative and cooperative assumptions each section of this paper in turn discusses existing work that is relevant to judging arbitration schemes by one of the above three criteria university of california san diego this research was supported by the national science foundation many of the observations made here evolved in discussions and correspondence with clifford donn who by no means agrees with all or even most of them i am grateful to him and to joel sobel and participants in a workshop presentation at the university of chicago who also made helpful comments

ecb spillovers and domestic monetary policy effectiveness in small open economies abstract in this paper we examine whether financial spillovers from the european central bank s monetary policy have consequences for the effectiveness of domestic monetary policy in three small open economies soes that are highly integrated with the european monetary union denmark norway and sweden we find significant spillovers that are particularly strong for longer maturity yields at the same time domestic monetary policy in norway and sweden is effective for the shorter end of the yield curve but much less so for the longer end of the curve recent work suggests that the trilemma in international economics as we used to know it may be a dilemma soes can only have effective monetary policies when the capital account is managed our results imply something in between although spillovers impose challenges on domestic monetary policy effectiveness small open economies still have some control over their yield curve

international spillovers of ecb s unconventional monetary policy the effect on central europe abstractwe examine how unconventional monetary policy of the european central bank ecb influences macroeconomic stability in three central european economies we estimate various panel vector autoregressions pvars using monthly data from 2008 to 2014 using the shadow policy rate and central bank assets as measures of unconventional policies we find that output growth and inflation in central europe temporarily increase following an expansionary unconventional monetary policy shock by the ecb using both impulse responses and variance decompositions we find that the effect of unconventional policies on output growth is much stronger than the effect on inflation

the heterogeneous impact of monetary policy on the us labor market abstract we empirically investigate the role of central banks in the context of heterogeneous labor markets jobless recoveries and job polarization specifically we estimate the effect of monetary policy on the us labor market using disaggregated time series based on large scale survey data the impact of interest rate changes on unemployment in 32 occupation groups is explored in a bayesian factor augmented vector autoregression framework the results suggest largely heterogeneous impacts across various occupation groups this heterogeneity can be explained by differential task profiles of the workers in their respective occupations workers with tasks that are easily automated or offshored as well as workers at the bottom of the skill distribution are disproportionately affected following a monetary policy shock this implies that labor market participants that are highly vulnerable to structural developments such as skill biased technological change and the globalization of labor markets are also most sensitive to conventional monetary policy measures from a policy perspective we conclude that central banks are unlikely to be able to take on a stabilizing role in the context of labor market polarization

bargaining with random implementation an experimental study abstract we use a laboratory experiment to study bargaining with random implementation we modify the standard nash demand game so that incompatible demands do not necessarily lead to the disagreement outcome rather with exogenous probability q one bargainer receives his her demand with the other getting the remainder we use an asymmetric bargaining set favouring one bargainer and disagreement payoffs of zero and we vary q over several values our results mostly support game theory s directional predictions as with conventional arbitration we observe a strong chilling effect on bargaining for q near one extreme demands and low agreement rates increasing q reinforces the game s built in asymmetry giving the favoured player an increasingly large share of payoffs but also raising efficiency these effects are non uniform over sizable ranges increases in q have minimal effect but for some q small additional increases lead to sharp changes in results

excess capacity monopolistic competition and international transmission of monetary disturbances analyzes the excess capacity monopolistic competition and international transmission of monetary policy disturbances in the united states sheds light on the international impact of monetary policy emphasis on the spillover effects of monetary disturbances similarity of framework used with open economy macroeconomics

spillover effects from euro area monetary policy across europe a factor augmented var approach i analyze spillover effects from a euro area monetary policy shock to fourteen european countries outside the euro area the analysis is based on a factor augmented var model with two blocks which exploits a large cross country data set after a euro area monetary policy expansion production increases in most non euro area countries whereas short term interest rates and financial uncertainty decline these effects are on average comparable to the responses in the aggregate euro area however the size of spillover effects varies with country characteristics spillovers on production are larger in non euro area economies with higher trade openness whereas financial variables react to a higher extent in countries with higher financial integration regarding the exchange rate regime countries with fixed exchange rates show stronger spillovers both in terms of production and interest rates finally prices increase in western european economies outside the euro area but decline or do not respond in central and eastern europe

rethinking classical trade analyses within a framework of capitalist development a classical trade theory which comprises smith s productivity theory ricardo s reasoning against the corn laws torrens s argument for extended colonisation and mill s recommendation to send capital abroad is advanced it portrays england s economic expansion in the nineteenth century lacunae exist however because of these economists belief in the automatic spread of industries to the agricultural countries and their inattention to the economic advances made by the late coming capitalist countries as well as the impact of england s capital exports on the capital importing countries subsequent researches which address these and which relate to current debates on theories and policies are discussed 1996 academic press limited

changes in the effects of monetary policy on disaggregate price dynamics abstract based on a time varying factor augmented vector autoregression we demonstrate that the propagation mechanism of monetary policy disturbances differs across disaggregate components of personal consumption expenditures while many disaggregate prices rise temporarily in response to a monetary tightening in the early part of the sample there is no evidence of a price puzzle at the aggregate level the share of disaggregate prices that exhibit the price puzzle diminishes from the early 1980s onwards there also is evidence of a substantial decline in the dispersion of disaggregate price responses over time this gradual decrease in cross sectional heterogeneity of disaggregate price responses is associated with a dampening effect on aggregate real economic activity and a stronger effect on the aggregate price level we illustrate by means of a multi sector sticky price model augmented by a cost channel how key structural parameters would have had to change to match this evolution of sectoral price dynamics

capital mobility and growth in a north south model abstract the paper introduces international equalization of profit rates into a north south model of growth a la findlay 1980 it examines the effects on north south income and employment differentials of the introduction of international capital mobility and given such mobility of shifts in regional technology savings and demand parameters the postulated structural asymmetries between the north and the south are shown to act in such a way as to pervasively bias against the south the functioning of the world economy

does trade integration alter monetary policy transmission abstract this paper explores the role of trade integration or openness for monetary policy transmission in a medium scale new keynesian model allowing for strategic complementarities in price setting we highlight a new dimension of the exchange rate channel by which monetary policy directly impacts domestic inflation a monetary contraction which appreciates the exchange rate lowers the local currency price of imported goods this in turn induces domestic producers to lower their prices too we pin down key parameters of the model by matching impulse responses obtained from a vector autoregression on time series for the us relative to the euro area our estimation procedure yields plausible parameter values and suggests a strong role for strategic complementarities counterfactual simulations show that openness alters monetary transmission significantly while the contractionary effect of a monetary policy shock on inflation and output tends to increase in openness we find that monetary policy s control over inflation increases as the output decline which is necessary to bring about a given reduction of inflation is smaller in more open economies

the effects of alternative power sharing arrangements do moderating institutions moderate party strategies and government policy outputs advocates of consensual political institutions i e institutions that promote compromise and powersharing among political parties claim that these institutions promote moderation in government policy outputs to date however there exists little research either theoretical or empirical that evaluates whether consensual institutions promote moderation in parties policy declarations we develop a multiparty spatial model with policy seeking parties operating under proportional representation in which we vary the extent to which government policies reflect power sharing among all parties as opposed to being determined by a single party we determine parties optimal nash equilibrium policy positions and conclude that power sharing does not typically motivate parties to moderate their policy declarations in fact policy positioning under power sharing appears to be similar to or more extreme than under single party dominance consistent with previous research however we find that power sharing does promote moderation in government policy outputs our results have implications for parties election strategies for the design of political institutions and for representative government

compulsory arbitration arbitral risk and negotiated settlements a case study in bargaining under imperfect information the effect of conventional and final offer compulsory arbitration on negotiated settlements is characterized using nash s variable threats bargaining solution with particular attention to the interaction between arbitral risk and bargainers risk preferences when there is no arbitral risk both schemes are shown to have the same effect on negotiated settlements under very general conditions even when bargaining is over several issues whether or not there is arbitral risk negotiated settlements favour a bargainer more if his opponent is more risk averse on the other hand increases in arbitral risk need not improve the position of the less risk averse bargainer as a by product of the analysis kihlstrom roth and schmeidler s risk sensitivity results for the nash and raiffa kalai smorodinsky solutions are generalized from fixed threats to variable threats bargaining

debt and stabilization policy evidence from a euro area favar abstract the euro area poses a unique problem in evaluating policy a currency union with a shared monetary policy and country specific fiscal policy analysis can be further complicated if high levels of public debt affect the performance of stabilization policy we construct a framework capable of handling these issues with an application to euro area data in order to incorporate multiple macroeconomic series from each country but simultaneously treat country specific fiscal policy we develop a hierarchical factor augmented var with zero restrictions on the loadings that yield country level factors monetary policy then responds to area wide conditions but fiscal policy responds only to its country level conditions we find that there is broad quantitative variation in different countries responses to area wide monetary policy and both qualitative and quantitative variation in responses to country specific fiscal policy moreover we find that debt conditions do not diminish the effectiveness of policy in a significant manner suggesting that any negative effects must come through other channels

effects of multiple arbitrators on final offer arbitration settlements abstract we examine final offer arbitration foa in the case where there is more than one arbitrator the two disputants submit final offers to a referee and each of the arbitrators submits an assessment to the referee the referee then aggregates the arbitrator input and declares one of the disputants the winner three aggregation schemes are considered average assessment median assessment and majority vote in all cases the gap between final offers becomes smaller as the number of arbitrators is increased moreover average aggregation gives a slightly smaller gap than does median aggregation and median aggregation is shown to be equivalent to majority vote aggregation

unifying ricardo s theories of growth and comparative advantage the paper formally integrates ricardo s two sector growth model with his theory of comparative advantage differences with conventional representations of ricardian trade theory as well as with heckscher ohlin samuelson theory are noted it is shown that the ricardian equilibrium terms of trade are fully determinate as against the standard millian view also trade may depending on direction of specialization inhibit rather than promote growth and lead to a net contraction of the world economy copyright 1986 by the review of economic studies limited