using real option analysis for highly uncertain technology investments the case of wind energy technology this study examines the feasibility of using a theoretical model and empirical analysis methods to value renewable energy re investment from perspective of real option analysis roa based on use of a roa approach the re value is evaluated with respect to its ability to conform to the main sensitivity analysis of re investment as well as an empirical method devised to value re investment by using actual data the economic intuitiveness underlying the decision making process for re investment is elucidated while empirical analysis is performed to demonstrate the effectiveness of the options value embedded in current development planning in taiwan for wind energy in addition to revealing the advantages of re development when considering real option analytical results indicate that roa is a highly effective means of quantifying how investment planning uncertainty including managerial flexibility influences re development besides evaluating the value of current re investment this study demonstrates that results of the theoretical model empirical analysis and sensitivity analysis correlate well with each other restated the value of developing re increases when increasing the underlying price time to maturity risk free rate and volatility conversely the value of developing re decreases when increasing the exercise price

competition cooperation and innovation organizational arrangements for regimes of rapid technological progress abstract discussions of the link between firm size and innovation are outmoded because the boundaries of the firm have become fuzzy in recent decades strategic alliances constellations of bilateral agreements among firms are increasingly necessary to support innovative activities such alliances can facilitate complex coordination beyond what the price system can accomplish while avoiding the dysfunctional properties sometimes associated with hierarchy antitrust law and competition policy need to recognize that these new organizational forms are often the functional antithesis of cartels though they may have certain structural similarities a more complete understanding of bilateral contracts and agreements ought to reveal when and how cooperation can support rather than impede innovation and competition

emissions trading and technology deployment in an energy systems bottom up model with technology learning abstract an important criterion in the analysis of climate policy instruments is their ability to stimulate the technological change necessary to enable the long term shift towards a low carbon global energy system in this paper some effects of emissions trading on technology deployment when technology learning is endogenized are examined with a multi regional bottom up energy systems optimization markal model of the global energy system in this framework due to the action of spillovers of learning imposing emission constraints on a given region may affect the technology choice and emissions profiles of other unconstrained regions the effects depend on the geographical scale of the learning process but also on the presence of emissions trading the regions that join the trade system and their timing for doing so incorporating endogenous technology learning and allowing for spillovers across regions appears as an important mechanism for capturing the possibility of induced technological change due to environmental constraints in bottom up models

real options analysis of investment in solar vs wind energy diversification strategies under uncertain prices and costs in this paper we study a community or firm considering to diversify its investment in two distinct renewable energy technologies namely wind and solar pv electricity we assume technological learning curves as a function of cumulative capital investment a real options approach is applied as it takes into account uncertainty about prices and learning as well as irreversibility associated with investment decisions we investigate three different cases dealing with uncertainty about future electricity prices and uncertainty about the speed with which learning drives the costs of wind and solar electricity down we assess the minimum threshold for the stochastic price and the maximum electricity production cost that makes it optimal for the firm to invest in the two technologies the results show that the learning rate affects the option to invest in but reducing critical threshold for exercising it the greater the amount of capital invested the more learning stimulates earlier exercising of the option to invest the firm will then anticipate the option to invest and exercise it for lower critical threshold values if all capital is invested in one technology if capital investment is diversified the option should be exercised at a higher critical threshold more uncertainty in energy prices or technology costs postpones the option to invest although investing in both solar and wind may be profitable under particular conditions of price and cost uncertainty the theoretically optimal strategy is generally investing in only one technology that is solar or wind depending on their relative initial costs and learning rates this suggests that the practice in most countries of diversifying renewable energy may reflect a mistaken strategy

energy consumption and gdp causality relationship in g 7 countries and emerging markets abstract the causality relationship between energy consumption and income is a well studied topic in energy economics this paper studies the time series properties of energy consumption and gdp and reexamines the causality relationship between the two series in the top 10 emerging markets excluding china due to lack of data and g 7 countries we discover bi directional causality in argentina causality running from gdp to energy consumption in italy and korea and from energy consumption to gdp in turkey france germany and japan hence energy conservation may harm economic growth in the last four countries

renewable energy policy evaluation using real option model the case of taiwan abstract this study presents a policy benefit evaluation model that integrates cost efficiency curve information on renewable power generation technologies into real options analysis roa methods the proposed model evaluates quantitatively the policy value provided by developing renewable energy re in the face of uncertain fossil fuel prices and re policy related factors the economic intuition underlying the policy making process is elucidated while empirical analysis illustrates the option value embedded in the current development policy in taiwan for wind power in addition to revealing the benefits that re development provides when considering real options analytical results indicate that roa is a highly effective means of quantifying how policy planning uncertainty including managerial flexibility influences re development in addition to assessing the policy value of current re development policy this study also compares policy values in terms of internalized external costs and varying feed in tariff fit simulation results demonstrate that the re development policy with internalized co2 emission costs is appropriate policy planning from sustainability point of view furthermore relationship between varying fit and policy values can be shown quantitatively and appropriate fit level could be determined accordingly

competition and environmental policies in an electricity sector abstract we study the impact of competition and environmental policy feed in tariff vs the eu ets on investment co 2 emissions and welfare in an electricity sector we consider different market structures a planner who maximises social welfare vs duopoly and two types of consumers those whose behaviour depends on the weather vs those whose behaviour does not the demand specification is innovative and takes incompressible consumption into account given the costs and demand functions we find that competition can increase co 2 emissions as is highlighted by mansur 2007 in duopoly the eu ets seems to be the only efficient policy for reducing co 2 emissions but also to increase the share of production based on renewable energy sources the retained feed in tariff policy seems to be the most expensive policy in terms of social welfare even if this policy seems to increase social welfare feed in tariffs increase the cspe which is paid for by consumers in the form of higher electricity prices and only benefits new entrants it is also less effective in terms of emission reduction

exploring the options for carbon dioxide mitigation in turkish electric power industry system dynamics approach electric power industry has a huge carbon mitigation potential fundamentally because there are large carbon free renewable resource options in turkey with growing demand in electricity consumption and incentives offered for natural gas fired electricity generation co2 emissions sourced from electric power industry had tripled over the last two decades current governmental strategy focuses on energy security and resource diversity in a growing economy and does not articulate sufficient mitigation targets and appropriate regulations in this research an original dynamic simulation model is built validated and analyzed to explore the options for carbon mitigation in turkish electric power industry model structure represents the investment dispatch and pricing heuristics as well as the natural resource base of electricity generation in turkey it operates on annual basis over 30 years to simulate installed capacities and generations of power plants with alternative resources and their resulting co2 emissions the analysis presented in this paper reveals that there are mitigation options below 50 of business as usual growth with common policy options such as feed in tariffs investment subsidies and carbon taxes the model can serve as an experimental platform for further analysis of problems related to carbon mitigation in turkish electricity sector

modeling long term dynamics of electricity markets in the last decade many countries have restructured their electricity industries by introducing competition in their power generation sectors although some restructuring has been regarded as successful the short experience accumulated with liberalized power markets does not allow making any founded assertion about their long term behavior long term prices and long term supply reliability are now center of interest this concerns firms considering investments in generation capacity and regulatory authorities interested in assuring the long term supply adequacy and the stability of power markets in order to gain significant insight into the long term behavior of liberalized power markets in this paper a simulation model based on system dynamics is proposed and the underlying mathematical formulations extensively discussed unlike classical market models based on the assumption that market outcomes replicate the results of a centrally made optimization the approach presented here focuses on replicating the system structure of power markets and the logic of relationships among system components in order to derive its dynamical response the simulations suggest that there might be serious problems to adjust early enough the generation capacity necessary to maintain stable reserve margins and consequently stable long term price levels because of feedback loops embedded in the structure of power markets and the existence of some time lags the long term market development might exhibit a quite volatile behavior by varying some exogenous inputs a sensitivity analysis is carried out to assess the influence of these factors on the long run market dynamics

valuation of projects for power generation with renewable energy a comparative study based on real regulatory options abstract this comparative study evaluates an investment project on renewable energy based on wind power we have conducted the study in three european union countries denmark finland and portugal we have modelled the main uncertainties that affect this kind of project such as the cost and production of electric power investment costs and consumer price index for each of these countries we have analysed the mechanisms of public support for wind energy we have identified the real options included in the regulatory frameworks of these three countries and assessed how they affect the expanded net present value of the project to this end we have used two different methods of option valuation the monte carlo method and the binomial method we have proved that the obtained results using both methods are quite similar finally we have evaluated the public incentives for wind energy offered in each of these three countries and concluded that in economic terms finland is the country with the strongest support for this kind of energy followed by denmark and in the last place portugal

a portfolio risk analysis on electricity supply planning abstract conventional electricity planning selects from a range of alternative technologies based on the least cost method without assessing cost related risks the current approach to determining energy generation portfolios creates a preference for fossil fuel consequently this preference results in increased exposure to recent fluctuations in fossil fuel prices particularly for countries heavily depend on imported energy this paper applies portfolio theory in conventional electricity planning with taiwan as a case study the model objective is to minimize the risk weighted present value of total generation cost both the present value of generating cost and risk variance of the generating cost are considered risk of generating cost is introduced for volatile fuel prices and uncertainty of technological change and capital cost reduction the impact of risk levels on the portfolio of power generation technologies is also examined to provide some valuable policy suggestions study results indicate that replacing fossil fuel with renewable energy helps reduce generating cost risk however due to limited renewable development potential in taiwan there is an upper bound of 15 on the maximum share of renewable energy in the generating portfolio in the meantime reevaluating the current nuclear energy policy for reduced exposure to fossil fuel price fluctuations is worthwhile

the economic impacts of minimum wage laws a new look at an old question this article uses a radically different methodology to address the question of the impact of minimum wage laws on employment and earnings the methodology uses the adult wage structure which exists prior to a change in the federal minimum wage to identify the members of the subminimum wage population this allows the parameterization of the disemployment effects of the minimum wage amendment on the subminimum population and the spillover employment effects on the above minimum population the members of the subminimum population are found to experience considerably reduced employment probabilities and annual hours worked conditional on employment some evidence of above minimum spillover effects is also found the paper evaluates the impact of the minimum on the earnings distribution and concludes that the burden of the minimum wage falls most severely on females this effect on adult females is surprisingly neutral with respect to race the greatest beneficiaries of the minimum among the adult populati

options in the real world lessons learned in evaluating oil and gas investments many firms in the oil and gas business have long used decision analysis techniques to evaluate exploration and development opportunities and have looked at recent development in option pricing theory as potentially offering improvements over the decision analysis approach unfortunately it is difficult to discern the benefits of the options approach from the literature on the topic most of the published examples greatly oversimplify the kinds of projects encountered in practice and comparisons are typically made to traditional discounted cash flow analysis which unlike the option pricing and decision analytic approaches does not explicitly consider the uncertainty in project cash flows in this paper we provide a tutorial introduction to option pricing methods focusing on how they relate to and can be integrated with decision analysis methods and describe some lessons learned in using these methods to evaluate some real oil and gas investments

optimal path for china s strategic petroleum reserve a dynamic programming analysis abstract this paper proposes a dynamic programming model to explore the optimal stockpiling path for china s strategic petroleum reserve before 2020 the optimal oil acquisition sizes in 2008 2020 under different scenarios are estimated the effects of oil price risks and elasticity value on inventory size are further investigated it is found that the optimal stockpile acquisition strategies are mainly determined by oil price and total inventory costs while oil supply disruption is not considered china s optimal stockpile acquisition rate increases from 19 2 to 52 million barrels from 2008 to 2020 if an oil supply disruption occurs the oil acquisition rate will be reduced significantly however it may not be a good strategy to interrupt oil reserve activities in order to minimize the total costs for the entire planning period

technological learning and renewable energy costs implications for us renewable energy policy abstract this paper analyzes the relationship between current renewable energy technology costs and cumulative production research development and demonstration expenditures and other institutional influences combining the theoretical framework of learning by doing and developments in learning by searching with the fields of organizational learning and institutional economics offers a complete methodological framework to examine the underlying capital cost trajectory when developing electricity cost estimates used in energy policy planning models sensitivities of the learning rates for global wind and solar photovoltaic technologies to changes in the model parameters are tested the implications of the results indicate that institutional policy instruments play an important role for these technologies to achieve cost reductions and further market adoption

biomass and ccs the influence of technical change the combination of bioenergy production and carbon capture and storage technologies beccs provides an opportunity to create negative emissions of co2 in biofuel production however high capture costs reduce profitability this paper investigates carbon price uncertainty and technological uncertainty through a real option approach we compare the cases of early and delayed ccs deployments an early technological progress may arise from aggressive r d and pilot project programs but the expected cost reduction remains uncertain we show that this approach results in lower emissions and more rapid investment returns although these returns will not fully materialise until after 2030 in a second set of simulations we apply an incentive that prioritises sequestered emissions rather than avoided emissions in other words this economic instrument does not account for co2 emissions from the ccs implementation itself but rewards all the sequestered emissions in contrast with technological innovations this subsidy is certain for the investor the resulting investment level is higher and the project may become profitable before 2030 negative emission in bioethanol production does not seem to be a short term solution in our framework whatever the carbon price drift

compound real options valuation of renewable energy projects the case of a wind farm in serbia abstract renewable energy sources have become a very important issue due to environmental and sustainability concerns in addition most renewable energy electricity generation res e projects are characterized by considerable uncertainty and sequential decision making these projects net present value npv is very often close to zero which renders them a good candidate for the application of real options valuation methodology of investment project appraisal this paper examines the real options valuation of a potential onshore wind farm project in serbia the binomial tree model spans a 15 year period consisting of a 2 year investment period and a 13 year operating period the first 12 years of which are protected by feed in tariffs according to local renewable energy regulations the authors examine a multi phased compound nested path dependent real option consisting of mutually exclusive options a sequential option to invest as well as expand repower contract and abandon options volatility which is calculated by means of a monte carlo simulation according to the logarithmic present value returns approach shows predominant sensitivity to the capacity factor simulated with the rescaled weibull s probability distribution the final binomial tree results show that the proposed sequence of options increases project value by transforming higher risk and lower return in the initial discounted cash flow model to lower risk and higher return in the ro model this paper contributes to the existing literature in at least two ways it presents in depth analysis of the real option application to the res e project and provides decision makers with sophisticated tool for improving strategic thinking capital budgeting and decision making processes

a real option model for renewable energy policy evaluation with application to solar pv power generation in china abstract this study proposes a policy evaluation model from the perspective of government and investors the proposed model which integrates american option method and two factor learning curve method can be used to evaluate the unit decision value and save path rate for renewable energy development and examine the existence of balance point of interest several uncertain factors including non renewable energy cost carbon price renewable energy cost and price subsidy are all considered in this model the model has been applied to evaluate the solar photovoltaic pv power generation in china our empirical results show that real option analysis roa is more effective than net present value analysis npv when handling uncertainty under current level of subsidy the government would suffer loss and the investors could benefit so that it is difficult to achieve the balance of interest during the planning period with the reduction of subsidy rate they can achieve the balance of interest

discounting under uncertainty suppose asset pricing is governed by the capm or the icapm and the expected one period simple returns on the net cash flows of investment projects are constant through time then the net cash flows are priced by discounting their expected values with their expected one period simple returns but when net cash flows are priced by discounting their expected values with constant capm or icapm expected one period simple returns distributions of net cash flows more than one period ahead are likely to be skewed right expected payoffs are then larger than median pay offs and expected pay offs are progressively more unusual outcomes for longer investment horizons copyright 1996 by university of chicago press

from planning to strategy in the electricity industry abstract as more utility markets are deregulated and competition is introduced there is an increasing need to understand how the planning methods used under monopoly have to change to take the new deregulated environment into account although this might seem relatively trivial it has been a major problem for a large number of utilities which have continued using the same planning approaches that they used when they were monopolies in this paper we first describe the environment which under monopoly conditions gave rise to the use of mainly operational research methods for planning we then argue that deregulation has changed the fundamental assumptions making the planning methods used under monopoly less useful after deregulation finally we review a number of methods that utilities should consider using when they formulate strategy in deregulated markets

endogenising emission taxes a general equilibrium type optimisation model applied for turkey this paper presents a modelling attempt to endogenise the level and timing of environmental taxes within an optimisation framework first a base model of energy economy environmental interactions is extended to allow for exogenous tax analysis two types of environmental taxes one on the sulphur content of fuels and the other on the level of emissions are exogenously included in the model as alternative instruments to mitigate pollution next the base model is modified to endogenise pollution abatement this has been achieved by incorporating a preference rate depending on an index of emissions into the utility function finally the emission index and emission tax are taken as substitutes and modelled within a ces form to endogenise the emission tax results for all cases obtained with turkish data are discussed it is found that a tax on so2 emissions is more effective in reducing so2 emissions than a tax applied on the sulphur content of fuels it is also found that a gradually increasing tax is more effective in reducing emissions than a constant tax

application of real options valuation for analysing the impact of public r d financing on renewable energy projects a company s perspective abstract this paper contrasts the financial benefit of grants given to research and development projects with the reduction in managerial flexibility they impose which implies a loss in the value of the project to quantify this loss of value real options analysis has been adopted as the most suitable framework to assess and quantify managerial flexibility this idea is illustrated by the case of a research and development project in renewable energy specifically concentrated solar power our results show that the value added by the grants is less than the nominal incentives received as a result of the loss of flexibility for managers they cannot apply certain options such as deferral nor can they abandon the project therefore a break even grant is proposed that equals the financial incentive with the loss of managerial flexibility under this break even point the grant should be rejected this paper will create awareness for both policy makers and private companies regarding a more accurate assessment of grants to research and development funding as well as provide insights to improve grant schemes without increasing the amount of public funds

factoring the elasticity of demand in electricity prices as electricity markets are liberalized consumers become exposed to more volatile electricity prices and may decide to modify the profile of their demand to reduce their electricity costs this paper analyzes the effect that the market structure can have on the elasticity of the demand for electricity it then describes how the consumers behavior can be modeled using a matrix of self and cross elasticities it is shown how these elasticities can be taken into consideration when scheduling generation and setting the price of electricity in a pool based electricity market these concepts are illustrated using a 26 generator system

optimal design of subsidy to stimulate renewable energy investments the case of china this paper proposes a real options model for estimating the optimal subsidy for renewable energy power generation project by using stochastic process to describe the market price of electricity co2 price and investment cost two indicators i e project value and threshold value are used to derive the optimal subsidy the least squares monte carlo simulation method is used to solve the model the proposed model is used to empirically evaluate the optimal level of subsidy for solar photovoltaic power generation in china the results show that carbon emission trading scheme helps reduce subsidy unit generating capacity market price of electricity co2 price and the volatility of investment cost are negatively related with subsidy whereas investment cost and the volatility of electricity price and co2 price are positively related with subsidy it is suggested that chinese governments take some measures e g promoting technological progress establishing a nationwide carbon emission trading market promoting the competition in renewable energy industry as well as maintaining the stability of co2 price and electricity price to reduce the required subsidy

delaying the introduction of emissions trading systems implications for power plant investment and operation from a multi stage decision model relying on real options theory we employ a multistage decision model to analyze the effect of delaying the introduction of emission trading systems ets on power plant investments in carbon capture and storage ccs retrofits on plant operation and on carbon dioxide co2 abatement unlike previous studies we assume that the investment decision is made before the ets is in place and we allow ccs operating flexibility for new power plant investments thus the plant may be run in ccs off mode if carbon prices are low we employ monte carlo simulation methods to account for uncertainties in the prices of co2 certificates other inputs and output prices relying on a realistic parameterization for a supercritical pulverized coal plant in china we find that ccs operating flexibility lowers the critical carbon price needed to support ccs investment because it renders ccs investment less irreversible for a low carbon price path operating flexibility also implies that delaying the introduction of an ets hardly affects plant co2 abatement since the plant operator is better off purchasing emission certificates rather than operating the plant in ccs mode interestingly for low carbon prices we find a u shaped relation between the length of the delay and the economic value of the plant thus delaying the introduction of an ets may make investors worse off

a real options evaluation model for the diffusion prospects of new renewable power generation technologies this study presents a policy planning model that integrates learning curve information on renewable power generation technologies into a dynamic programming formulation featuring real options analysis the model recursively evaluates a set of investment alternatives on a year by year basis thereby taking into account that the flexibility to delay an irreversible investment expenditure can profoundly affect the diffusion prospects of renewable power generation technologies price uncertainty is introduced through stochastic processes for the average wholesale price of electricity and for input fuel prices demand for electricity is assumed to be increasingly price sensitive as the electricity market deregulation proceeds reflecting new options of consumers to react to electricity price changes such as time of use pricing unbundled electricity services and choice of supplier the empirical analysis is based on data for the turkish electricity supply industry apart from general implications for policy making it provides some interesting insights about the impact of uncertainty and technical change on the diffusion of various emerging renewable energy technologies

optimisation of electricity energy markets and assessment of co2 trading on their structure a stochastic analysis of the greek power sector power production was traditionally dominated by monopolies after a long period of research and organisational advances in international level electricity markets have been deregulated allowing customers to choose their provider and new producers to compete the former public power companies vast changes have been made in the european legal framework but still the experience gathered is not sufficient to derive safe conclusions regarding the efficiency and reliability of deregulation furthermore emissions trading progressively becomes a reality in many respects compliance with kyoto protocol s targets is a necessity and stability of the national grid s operation is a constraint of vital importance consequently the production of electricity should not rely solely in conventional energy sources neither in renewable ones but on a mixed structure finding this optimal mix is the primary objective of the study a computational tool has been created that simulates and optimises the future electricity generation structure based on existing as well as on emerging technologies the results focus on the greek power sector and indicate a gradual decreasing of anticipated co2 emissions while the socioeconomic constraints and reliability requirements of the system are met policy interventions are pointed out based on the numerical results of the model c 2010 elsevier ltd all rights reserved

review of renewable energy investment and financing in china status mode issues and countermeasures abstract with the support of national policies china s renewable energy generation industry has experienced a rapid development period and entered the world forefront level especially in the aspects of installed capacity and speed of newly installed capacity however with the rapid development of renewable energy the power generation industry is facing more and more challenges particularly in investment and financing as for wind power industry there are also some problems such as single financing channels blindness of projects investment and so on which will result in financing difficulties for some advanced projects in addition the problems for the investment of photovoltaic pv power generation leads to vicious competition and a tumble in international market thus the overcapacity of china s entire pv industry emerges generally speaking the renewable energy industry is facing a seemingly contradictory predicament of funding deficiencies and blind investment which is derived from the government centered renewable energy investment and financing this government centered mode has promoted the development of renewable energy industry in the early stage but it cannot be adapted to the requirements of sustainable development in view of these the problems of renewable energy investment and financing are deeply studied in this paper this paper proceeds as follows firstly the overview of the development of china s renewable energy industry is briefly introduced secondly the status quo of china s renewable energy investment and financing is explored in detail based on overview of the following five perspectives investment situation investment and financing bodies investment and financing means sources of funding and financing channels secondly the patterns and characteristics of renewable energy financing are summarized and a comparative analysis of wind power and photovoltaic power generation financing means is carried out finally renewable energy investment and financing issues are discussed and further feasible proposals are put forward in all this paper is of great significance in the sustainable and healthy development of china s renewable energy

the impact of delivery lags on irreversible investment under uncertainty abstract we consider the valuation and rational exercise of irreversible investment opportunities in the presence of revenue uncertainty and delivery lags in order to capture supply side market imperfections in the markets for investment goods we assume that the lag depends on the revenue process faced by the investor we show that such imperfections have a pronounced decelerating impact on rational investment demand as they may increase the value of waiting in excess of the exercise payoff even for projects which otherwise would be perceived as highly remunerative we also consider the comparative static properties of the optimal investment policy and its value and demonstrate that typically increased uncertainty decreases the investment incentives by increasing the value of waiting

co2 gdp and ret an aggregate economic equilibrium analysis for turkey there is a worldwide interest in renewable electricity technologies rets due to growing concerns about global warming and climate change as an eu candidate country whose energy demand increases exponentially turkey inevitably shares this common interest on ret this study using an aggregate economic equilibrium model explores the economic costs of different policy measures to mitigate co2 emissions in turkey the model combines energy demands capital requirements and labor inputs at a constant elasticity of substitution under an economy wide nested production function growing energy demand triggered by economic growth is met by increased supply and initiates new capacity additions investment into ret is encouraged via the incorporation of a endogenous technological learning through which the ret cost declines as a function of cumulative capacity and b a willingness to pay wtp function which imposes the wtp of consumers as a lower bound on ret installation the wtp equation is obtained as a function of consumer income categories based on data gathered from a pilot survey in which the contingent valuation methodology was employed the impacts of various emission reduction scenarios on gdp growth and ret diffusion are explored as expected ret penetration is accelerated under faster technological learning and higher wtp conditions it is found that stabilizing co2 emissions to year 2005 levels causes economic losses amounting to 17 and 23 of gdp in the years 2020 and 2030 respectively

incorporating life cycle external cost in optimization of the electricity generation mix the present work aims to examine the strategic decision of future electricity generation mix considering together with all other factors the effect of the external cost associated with the available power generation technology options not only during their operation but also during their whole life cycle the analysis has been performed by integrating the life cycle assessment concept into a linear programming model for the yearly decisions on which option should be used to minimize the electricity generation cost the model has been applied for the case of greece for the years 2012 2050 and has led to several interesting results firstly most of the new generating capacity should be renewable mostly biomass and wind while natural gas is usually the only conventional fuel technology chosen if externalities are considered wind energy increases its share and hydro power replaces significant amounts of biomass generated energy furthermore a sensitivity analysis has been performed one of the most important findings is that natural gas increases its contribution when externalities are increased summing up external cost has been found to be a significant percentage of the total electricity generation cost for some energy sources therefore significantly changing the ranking order of cost competitiveness for the energy sources examined

electricity market reform failures uk norway alberta and california an analysis of electricity market reforms already taken place in the uk norway alberta canada and california usa leads to our overall conclusion that the introduction of a competitive generation market of itself has failed to deliver reliable service at low and stable prices the market reform failures are attributed to market power abuse by few dominant sellers especially at times of transmission congestion poor market design that invites strategic bidding by suppliers the lack of customer response to price spikes capacity shortage caused by demand growth not matched by new capacity and thin trading of forward and futures contracts that are critical for price discovery and risk management the paper then explains why an electricity market reform can easily fail to deliver the promised gains of better service at lower and more stable prices the policy implication is that an electric market reform can be extremely risky and may lead to a disastrous outcome thus it is imprudent to implement such a reform in countries with limited sites for newgeneration and no indigenous fuels e g israel and hong kong these countries should therefore consider introducing performance based regulation that can immediately benefit electricity consumers in terms of lower prices more stable prices improved reliability more choices while encouraging the electric sector to pursue efficient operation and investment r 2003 elsevier science ltd all rights reserved

modeling technology adoption as an irreversible investment under uncertainty the case of the turkish electricity supply industry this paper studies energy conversion technology adoption in the electricity supply sector from the perspective of irreversible investments under uncertainty and with a particular interest in environmental sustainability we develop a dynamic technology adoption model that is firmly rooted in economic theory and that takes important determinants of optimal investment in available technologies e g life cycle capital and operation cost explicitly into account uncertainty is introduced for the demand for peak load capacity unit generation costs and for the average electricity price we test the model empirically by applying it to data for the turkish power supply industry the model guided optimal investment schedule based on net present value considerations exhibits significant deviations from the actual investment outcome we find that the increased adoption of natural gas fired power generation technologies in turkey in recent years while contributing to environmental sustainability has had doubtful merits from an investor s perspective

electricity consumption and economic growth evidence from turkey abstract this study investigates the causal relationship between electricity consumption and real gdp in turkey during the period of 1950 2000 both of the series were found to be a stationary process around a structural break by the zivot and andrews test thus two different methodologies have been employed to test the granger non causality the dolado lutkepohl test using the vars in levels and the standard granger causality test using the detrended data both tests have yielded a strong evidence for unidirectional causality running from the electricity consumption to the income this implies that the supply of electricity is vitally important to meet the growing electricity consumption hence to sustain the economic growth in turkey

real options analysis for renewable energy investment decisions in developing countries abstract renewable energy projects in developing countries should provide clean energy supply as well as support sustainable economic development to this end risks arising from uncertainties such as rapidly changing technologies and host government conditions should be carefully addressed however traditional methods for economic assessment are not adequate to support decision making regarding investments in renewable energy this paper proposes a real options analysis framework as a tool to assess renewable energy investment in developing countries a case study involving a hydropower project in indonesia was conducted to validate and verify the proposed framework this framework is expected to help host countries and investors assess renewable energy projects with high volatility and risk

can the regulated market help foster a free market for wind energy in brazil abstract wind energy has been negotiated in brazil s regulated market through auctions organized by the government bilateral negotiations in the free market have been scarce in 2011 wind farms were allowed to bid in a minus 5 a 5 auctions for energy with first delivery date 5 years ahead this new design was expected to stimulate negotiations in the free market as the 20 year contract in the regulated market eases financing while the 5 year grace period grants wind farms the option to sell whatever energy is generated beforehand in the free market we modeled bidders price decision in a 5 auctions as real options and concluded that given the low prices averaging usd 50 mw h winners are tempted to defer investment expecting more favorable equipment and energy prices or a better knowledge of the wind site construction is likely to begin in 2 3 years with little time left for the free market bidders that consider the option of eventually abandoning the project are more price competitive increasing chances that some wind farms will never materialize therefore this attempt to foster the free market may not pay off and moreover it may have the unfavorable effect of turning brazil s energy expansion planning a more difficult task

time dependent opportunities in energy business a comparative study of locally available renewable and conventional fuels this work investigates and compares energy related private business strategies potentially interesting for investors willing to exploit either local biomass sources or strategic conventional fuels two distinct fuels and related power production technologies are compared as a case study in terms of economic efficiency the biomass of cotton stalks and the natural gas the carbon capture and storage option are also investigated for power plants based on both fuel types the model used in this study investigates important economic aspects using a real options method instead of traditional discounted cash flow techniques as it might handle in a more effective way the problems arising from the stochastic nature of significant cash flow contributors evolution like electricity fuel and co2 allowance prices the capital costs have also a functional relationship with time thus providing an additional reason for implementing real options as well as the learning curves technique the methodology as well as the results presented in this work may lead to interesting conclusions and affect potential private investment strategies and future decision making this study indicates that both technologies lead to positive investment yields with the natural gas being more profitable for the case study examined while the carbon capture and storage does not seem to be cost efficient with the current co2 allowance prices furthermore low interest rates might encourage potential investors to wait before actualising their business plans while higher interest rates favor immediate investment decisions

real option valuation in renewable energy literature research focus trends and design abstract in light of intensive development of the renewable energy re sector a growing number of academic papers address the complexity of re investment planning and valuation to take account of the high risk profile and irreversibility of re investments researchers have resorted to sophisticated real options ro approaches that enable flexibility to be incorporated into project design in the face of an uncertain environment the variety of different frameworks and models adopted as well as a lack of aggregated analysis of the field suggest a need for a critical review of ro methodology and design in re assessment this study describes the research focus trends and design found in contemporary academic literature devoted to re valuation with a ro approach particular attention is given to ro in project and policy design the results give a comprehensive picture of existing research on the topic thus providing researchers with a solid foundation for further study and indications of directions for future development furthermore the findings provide policymakers and project planners with valuable insights into key aspects of re project and policy design

optimal feed in tariff for solar photovoltaic power generation in china a real options analysis abstract the feed in tariff policy is widely used to promote the development of renewable energy china also adopts feed in tariff policy to attract greater investment in solar photovoltaic power generation this study employs real options method to assess the optimal levels of feed in tariffs in 30 provinces of china the uncertainties in co 2 price and investment cost are considered a method that integrates the backward dynamic programming algorithm and least squares monte carlo method is used to solve the model the results demonstrate that the feed in tariffs of 30 provinces range from 0 68 rmb kwh to 1 71 rmb kwh and the average level is 1 01 rmb kwh on this basis we find that the levels of sub regional feed in tariff announced in 2013 are no longer appropriate and should be adjusted as soon as possible we have also identified the implications of technological progress and carbon emission trading schemes as well as the importance of strengthening electricity transmission it has been suggested that the chinese government takes diverse measures including increasing research and development investment establishing and improving a nationwide carbon emission trading scheme and accelerating the construction of electricity transmission infrastructure to reduce the required feed in tariff and promote the development of solar photovoltaic power generation

the paradox effects of uncertainty and flexibility on investment in renewables under governmental support abstract given that companies have the flexibility to decide about size and timing of a renewable electricity investment the existence of four paradox effects is proven only the type but not the amount of governmental support has an influence on the optimal capacity of a renewable electricity generating system a decrease of governmental support over time may result in higher capacities of renewables installed on an industry level at least on the short term likewise higher uncertainty may encourage an expansion of these capacities in contrast technological progress may hamper the expansion of capacities finally these four paradox effects are exemplified in a germany based case study regarding a photovoltaic project

investment timing decisions in hydropower adaptation projects using climate scenarios a case study of south korea abstract climate change alters the energy production of existing hydropower plants old established facilities of hydropower are insufficient to handle changes in runoff under climate change these facilities should be retrofitted and adapted to climate change adaptation of hydropower to climate change has two purposes first to fully utilize future water resources for maximizing electricity generation and second to generate profits in return of investment costs investment in the adaptation depends on issues such as climate scenarios investment costs and timing of implementation since future climate scenarios are intrinsically time dependent investment timing is the biggest issue we propose the adaptive investment model aim to determine the timing of investment using real options valuation aim comprises four steps identification of hydropower adaptation to climate change step 1 calculation of key variables step 2 real options valuation rov step 3 and decision making step 4 this model allows investors to assess the economic feasibility and suggests optimal investment timing for adaptation to climate change a case study involving the chuncheon hydropower plant in south korea demonstrated that aim could generate an effective adaptation strategy

valuing chinese feed in tariffs program for solar power generation a real options analysis newhuadu business school research fund china sustainable energy program g 1305 18257 national social science foundation of china 12zd059 ministry of education 10gbj013

the international economics of intellectual property right protection a welfare theoretic trade policy analysis abstract this paper provides an analytical construct for examining the trade policy effects of greater intellectual property protection in technology importing countries it is shown that two types of conflict are likely to arise between net technology importers and exporters the first relates to the level of protection with importers preferring a low level and exporters a high one the second conflict hitherto unexplored relates to the manner of protection with importers likely to prefer discriminatory regimes favoring local r d creation whereas exporters would prefer nondiscriminatory protection in importing countries

emissions trading and investment decisions in the power sector a case study in finland abstract organizations which consider investment in or divestment of power production licences capacity within the european community are exposed to the impacts of the european union emission allowance trading scheme eu ets in this paper the consequences of the eu ets on investment decisions are explored in a country specific setting in finland first we review the general mechanisms through which the eu ets influences size timing and cashflows of an investment next we discuss the projected changes in finnish power producers investment environment and examine the financial impacts due to the eu ets on a case investment decision a hypothetical condensing power plant 250 mwe the standard discounted cash flow dcf analysis is extended to take into account the value of two real options the option to wait and the option to alter operating scale in a quantitative investment appraisal the impact of emissions trading not only depends on the expected level of allowance prices but also on their volatility and correlation with electricity and fuel prices the case study shows that the uncertainty regarding the allocation of emission allowances is critical in a quantitative investment appraisal of fossil fuel fired power plants

emergence of financial markets for electricity a european perspective abstract deregulation directed at european energy markets is proceeding although the speed often may seem slow real changes are coming in the development of physical and especially financial markets for electricity electricity deregulation started in individual countries notably the united kingdom and norway and the norwegian effort spread to the rest of the nordic region before the union s 1996 electricity directive started to have a real impact electricity deregulation is a complicated process involving breaking up of generation monopolies unbundling of generation and transmission consumer choice of suppliers through local distributors and eventually perhaps the establishment of a power pool where physical as well as financial contracts are traded the deregulation process now has gone far enough to reap some experiences the original uk deregulation model which focused mainly on breaking up the generation monopoly proved somewhat inefficient because it didn t offer real consumer choices and opened for inefficient gaming strategies among producers this experience has pushed the united kingdom in the direction of the nordic model norwegian deregulation is peculiar in the sense that new entry to generation is highly restricted on the other hand norway now with the entire nordic region has developed a quite advanced and quite well functioning electricity trading pool with widespread financial trading and good liquidity part of the success of the nordic model comes having a high quality spot price which can be used as a benchmark for the pricing of financial contracts another possible source of success is the high proportion of hydropower for which production volumes can be adjusted quickly and outages and price spikes thus avoided the swiss experience further underscores the importance of a spot price benchmark because the extensive swiss physical trade has allowed a growing volume of contract trade even in the absence of deregulation from these experiences we propose four factors we believe to be instrumental in creating healthy financial power markets the choice of pool model including spot adjustment and forward markets will make or break liquidity a price index is essential for ensuring transparency standardized simple derivative contracts make trading easier and more attractive finally the underlying physical system is important a hydro based system is easy to adjust while a thermal system will have problems with security of supply although the process is slow deregulation is likely to change the european electricity market in profound ways we see the effects mostly as beneficial deregulation will improve efficiency in generation will improve transparency for better consumer choices and allow the emergence of efficient financial trade in electricity if deregulation is all that s done the environmental effects may be adverse because lower prices encourage greater consumption and hence emissions coupled with a sensible environmental policy we believe deregulated markets can minimize the costs of environmental protection

minimum wage effects in the longer run exposure to minimum wages at young ages could lead to adverse longer run effects via decreased labor market experience and tenure and diminished education and training while beneficial longer run effects could arise if minimum wages increase skill acquisition evidence suggests that as individuals reach their late 20s they earn less the longer they were exposed to a higher minimum wage at younger ages and the adverse longer run effects are stronger for blacks if there are such longer run effects of minimum wages they are likely more significant than the contemporaneous effects on youths that are the focus of research and policy debate

do we really understand the development of china s new energy industry abstract countries all over the world have realized that the key to resolving the dilemma between accelerated energy consumption and reduction in carbon dioxide emission is to actively develop new energy industry many scholars have conducted in depth investigation into the main driving forces of the new energy industry however they often adhere to an assumption that the effect of the driving forces on new energy industry is constant across areas ignoring the spatial heterogeneity in economic phenomena geographically weighted regression gwr model and the use of local sample data to implement parameter estimation can make up for the inadequacies of existing research therefore this paper uses the gwr model to carefully investigate the new energy industry the results show that the impact of economic growth on the new energy industry in the eastern region is higher than in the central and western regions owing to the differences in economic structure and fixed asset investment the impact of foreign energy dependence continuously declines from the eastern region to the central and western regions this is attributable to the differences in natural gas and oil imports technological progress has a similar effect on account of the differences in r d funding and r d personnel investments however the impact of the agriculture industry in the central region is higher than in the eastern and western regions due to the differences in crop acreage and agricultural output this study improves our understanding of the new energy industry and would help local authorities to formulate targeted policies for promoting the growth of new energy industry