an analysis of interfirm cooperation theory and evidence from electric power pools this paper develops and tests a model for analyzing the extent to which an individual utility participates in a power pool it incorporates the benefits and costs of pool membership in a profit maximization model of an individual utility the study finds that coordination reflects the benefits and costs the degree to which other utilities are committed to the pool and the utility s behavior toward other utilities the results show that large firms are reluctant to pool with small firms and the us pools tend to be loosely coordinated policy implications are that regulatory commissions can be instrumental in coordination efforts and that interstate cooperation among regulatory authorities is needed to encourage pooling and obtain regional solutions to regional problems it is also important to reduce the transactional costs of pooling wherever possible 37 references 3 figures 1 table

the differential regional effects of monetary policy this paper examines whether monetary policy has similar effects across regions in the united states impulse response functions from an estimated structural vector autoregression reveal a core of regions new england mideast plains southeast and the far west that respond to monetary policy changes in ways that closely approximate the u s average response of the three noncore regions one great lakes is noticeably more sensitive to monetary policy changes and two southwest and rocky mountains are found to be much less sensitive a state level version of the model is estimated and used to provide evidence on the channels for monetary policy

forecasting recessions the puzzle of the enduring power of the yield curve for over two decades researchers have provided evidence that the yield curve specifically the spread between long and short term interest rates contains useful information for signaling future recessions despite these findings forecasters appear to have generally placed too little weight on the yield spread when projecting declines in the aggregate economy indeed we show that professional forecasters are worse at predicting recessions a few quarters ahead than a simple real time forecasting model that is based on the yield spread this relative forecast power of the yield curve remains a puzzle the appendix is included online as supplementary material

why has u s inflation become harder to forecast we examine whether the u s rate of price inflation has become harder to forecast and to the extent that it has what changes in the inflation process have made it so the main finding is that the univariate inflation process is well described by an unobserved component trend cycle model with stochastic volatility or equivalently an integrated moving average process with time varying parameters this model explains a variety of recent univariate inflation forecasting puzzles and begins to explain some multivariate inflation forecasting puzzles as well

the impact of regulation on input substitution and operating cost we investigate the impact of rate of return regulation on the substitutability between pairs of inputs where substitutability is measured using morishima elasticities of substitution mes and on operating cost theory does not provide a qualitative characterization of the impact of regulation on input substitutability although it does provide a basis for speculation we test our speculation using a 1977 87 panel of 20 u s interstate natural gas pipelines that were subject to rate of return regulation during the period we find that regulation increased the mes of each rate base input for the non rate base input and reduced the mes between the two rate base inputs and of the nonrate base input for each rate base input we also find that the

real time density forecasts from bayesian vector autoregressions with stochastic volatility central banks and other forecasters are increasingly interested in various aspects of density forecasts however recent sharp changes in macroeconomic volatility including the great moderation and the more recent sharp rise in volatility associated with increased variation in energy prices and the deep global recession pose significant challenges to density forecasting accordingly this paper examines with real time data density forecasts of u s gdp growth unemployment inflation and the federal funds rate from bayesian vector autoregression bvar models with stochastic volatility the results indicate that adding stochastic volatility to bvars materially improves the real time accuracy of density forecasts this article has supplementary material online

what can we learn from the grand policy experiment lessons from so2 allowance trading stable url http links jstor org sici sici 0895 3309 28199822 2912 3a3 3c69 3awcwlft 3e2 0 co 3b2 tthe journal of economic perspectives is currently published by american economic association your use of the jstor archive indicates your acceptance of jstor s terms and conditions of use available athttp www jstor org about terms html jstor s terms and conditions of use provides in part that unless you have obtainedprior permission you may not download an entire issue of a journal or multiple copies of articles and you may use content inthe jstor archive only for your personal non commercial use please contact the publisher regarding any further use of this work publisher contact information may be obtained athttp www jstor org journals aea html each copy of any part of a jstor transmission must contain the same copyright notice that appears on the screen or printedpage of such transmission the jstor archive is a trusted digital repository providing for long term preservation and access to leading academicjournals and scholarly literature from around the world the archive is supported by libraries scholarly societies publishers and foundations it is an initiative of jstor a not for profit organization with a mission to help the scholarly community takeadvantage of advances in technology for more information regarding jstor please contact support jstor org http www jstor orgtue jun 26 16 25 17 2007

optimal monetary policy in a currency area abstract this paper investigates how monetary policy should be conducted in a two region general equilibrium model with monopolistic competition and price stickiness this framework delivers a simple welfare criterion based on the utility of the consumers that can be used to evaluate monetary policy in a currency area if the two regions share the same degree of nominal rigidity the terms of trade are completely insulated from monetary policy and the optimal outcome is obtained by targeting a weighted average of the regional inflation rates these weights coincide with the economic sizes of the region if the degrees of rigidity are different the optimal plan implies a high degree of inertia in the inflation rate but an inflation targeting policy in which higher weight is given to the inflation in the region with higher degree of nominal rigidity is nearly optimal

elasticities of substitution for a regulated cost function abstract this paper proposes a modification to the uzawa 1962 characterization of the allen partial elasticity of substitution under cost minimization to take account of the behavioral properties of the cost function for a firm subject to rate of return regulation

an optimum currency area odyssey abstract the theory of optimum currency areas was conceived and developed in three highly influential papers written by mundell 1961 mckinnon 1963 and kenen 1969 those authors identified characteristics that potential members of a monetary union should ideally possess in order to make it feasible to surrender a nationally tailored monetary policy and the adjustment of an exchange rate of a national currency we trace the development of optimum currency area theory which after a flurry of research into the subject in the 1960s was relegated to intellectual purgatory for about 20 years we then discuss factors that led to a renewed interest into the subject beginning in the early 1990s milton friedman plays a pivotal role in our narrative friedman s work on monetary integration in the early 1950s presaged subsequent optimum currency area contributions mundell s classic formulation of an optimal currency area was aimed in part at refuting friedman s strong case for floating exchange rates and friedman s work on the role of monetary policy had the effect of helping to revive interest in optimum currency area analysis the paper concludes with a discussion of recent analytical work using new keynesian models which has the promise of fulfilling the unfinished agenda set out by the original contributors to the optimum currency area literature that is providing a consistent framework in which a country s characteristics can be used to determine its optimal exchange rate regime

flexible inflation forecast targeting evidence from canada we test whether the bank of canada pursues a flexible inflation forecast target one that weights output growth as well as inflation for the period 1996 2007 we find evidence that the bank did effectively pursue such a target over the forecast horizon of 12 to 18 months we find the relative weight that the bank gives to output growth in its target to be positive and statistically significant within the range of 0 2 to 0 4 resume la poursuite de cibles de prevision d inflation flexibles resultats pour le canada on met au test la proposition a savoir si la banque du canada poursuit une cible flexible de prevision d inflation une cible qui tient compte de la croissance du produit tout autant que l inflation pour la periode 1996 2007 les resultats montrent que la banque a poursuivi une cible sur un horizon de prevision de 12 a 18 mois on montre que la ponderation relative que la banque donne a la croissance du produit dans son ciblage est positive et statistiquement significative dans l eventail entre 0 2 et 0 4

forecast comparisons in unstable environments we propose new methods for comparing the out of sample forecasting performance of two competing models in the presence of possible instabilities the main idea is to develop a measure of the relative local forecasting performance for the two models and to investigate its stability over time by means of statistical tests we propose two tests the fluctuation test and the one time reversal test that analyze the evolution of the models relative performance over historical samples in contrast to previous approaches to forecast comparison which are based on measures of global performance we focus on the entire time path of the models relative performance which may contain useful information that is lost when looking for the model that forecasts best on average we apply our tests to the analysis of the time variation in the out of sample forecasting performance of monetary models of exchange rate determination relative to the random walk copyright 2010 john wiley sons ltd

regulation of administered prices an empirical analysis of the microeconomics of price movement in finland 1972 77 curiously enough the concept of administered prices launched by gardiner means in his 1934 report to the u s secretary of agriculture still shows up in discussions on price policy and control today almost fifty years since it was coined and three decades after the discussion2 in which it should have been buried even more astonishing is the fact that its spin off administered inflation a term introduced by the kefauver committee in 1957 3 is still a part of economic language in some instances in the basic formulation that of means in 1935 administered prices are not assumed to be explicitly linked with market power but simply prices set by administrative action and held constant for a period of time means 12 p 78 although the hypothesis in this form was based on no economic reasoning of acceptable clarity it might still be accepted for the simple truism it is clearly some prices will change more seldom than others since for one thing costs of price changes will vary as is intuitively clear and as shown by sheshinski and weiss 17 pp 294 95 the optimal strategy of a firm in an inflationary environment will consist of longer intervals between successive price changes the higher the cost of such a change is under some very special assumptions risk aversion may also serve as an explanation to a decrease in the number of price changes relative to the number of changes in cost as indicated by the results of schramm and sherman 1 5 4 the administered inflation hypothesis as forwarded by means in his 1957 testimony before the kefauver committee means 12 pp 101 29 and by

macroeconomic forecasting performance under alternative specifications of time varying volatility summary this paper compares alternative models of time varying volatility on the basis of the accuracy of real time point and density forecasts of key macroeconomic time series for the usa we consider bayesian autoregressive and vector autoregressive models that incorporate some form of time varying volatility precisely random walk stochastic volatility stochastic volatility following a stationary ar process stochastic volatility coupled with fat tails garch and mixture of innovation models the results show that the ar and var specifications with conventional stochastic volatility dominate other volatility specifications in terms of point forecasting to some degree and density forecasting to a greater degree copyright 2014 john wiley sons ltd

combining forecast densities from vars with uncertain instabilities recursive weight forecast combination is often found to an ineffective method of improving point forecast accuracy in the presence of uncertain instabilities we examine the effectiveness of this strategy for forecast densities using many vector autoregressive var and autoregressive ar models of output growth inflation and interest rates our proposed recursive weight density combination strategy based on the recursive logarithmic score of the forecast densities produces well calibrated predictive densities for us real time data by giving substantial weight to models that allow for structural breaks in contrast equal weight combinations produce poorly calibrated forecast densities for great moderation data copyright 2010 john wiley sons ltd

behavior of the firm under regulatory constraint a recent article by akira takayama discusses an earlier paper by harvey averch and leland l johnson on fair rate of return regulation of public utilities although takayama p 255 agrees with averch and johnson s general conclusions that a firm will tend to increase its investment with the introduction of an active constraint on its rate of return he criticizes the a j argument as being confusing ambiguous and in error takayama then attempts a clarification and presents a new formulation which leads to the a j result quoted above this comment will discuss several of takayama s criticisms in addition to showing that the so called a j effect cannot be derived from the basic assumptions made by both averch and johnson and takayama 1 we will show that the very assumptions used to prove the a j effect by defining the region of x require an assumption that the a j effect exists in the first place

fiscal flows in the united states and canada lessons for monetary union in europe regional flows of federal taxes and transfers within the united states and canada are used to analyze long term fiscal flows the redistributive element and short term responses to regional business cycles the stabilization element in the united states long run flows amount to 22 cents in the dollar while the stabilization effect is 31 cents in the dollar in canada the redistributive effect is larger 39 cents and the stabilization effect smaller 17 cents federal flows appears to depend on the institutional structure of the country concerned however in both countries the redistributive element is considerably larger than the amounts involved in the ec structural funds program as for stabilization national fiscal policies in the ec appear to have been as effective as federal governments in the united states and canada in cushioning shocks to incomes

the influence of the economic approaches to regulation on banking regulations a short history of banking regulations this article highlights the theoretical foundations of the regulations at work in the banking sector and examines their responsibility in the onset of the 2007 2008 financial crisis drawing a parallel between the main changes in banking regulations since the 1960s and the evolutions in the economic analyses of regulation over the same period it shows that the shift from the public interest theory of regulation that prevailed until the late 1960s towards the private interest theory of regulation accounts for the substitution of micro prudential regulations for macro prudential ones and explains a paradigmatic change in the conception of the regulatory instruments of the banking authorities it also shows that although the outcome of several factors the 2007 2008 crisis was also a consequence of the fact that the economic analysis of banking regulations supported micro prudential regulations that fail to take the global features and impact of banking activities into account and have proved unable to recommend effective solutions in a context of crisis

estimated elasticities from regulated and unregulated cost functions abstract estimates of the allen partial elasticities of substitution aes for a regulated cost function smith 1981 are compared with those obtained from an unregulated cost function the aes for capital and variable inputs are reasonably similar but those between variable inputs differ significantly

efficiency based rank assessment for electric power industry a combined use of data envelopment analysis dea and dea discriminant analysis da abstract this study discusses a combined use of dea data environment analysis and dea da discriminant analysis to determine the efficiency based rank of energy firms this type of performance evaluation is important because we often have a difficulty in accessing a large sample on energy firms to derive reliable empirical results the proposed approach is useful in dealing with such a limited number of energy firms often found in previous dea studies on energy industries in the world the proposed approach uses dea to classify energy firms into efficient and inefficient groups based upon their efficiency scores then it utilizes dea da to assess their efficiency scores and ranks in this stage we can find an adjusted efficiency score for each energy firm the proposed approach provides us with the following analytical capabilities all of which cannot be found in a conventional use of dea in assessing energy firms first the proposed dea approach can avoid zero in all multipliers on efficient energy firms by incorporating scsc strong complementary slackness condition so that it can handle an occurrence of multiple reference sets and multiple projections the dea result classifies all energy firms into efficient and inefficient groups second dea da applied to the two groups evaluates all energy firms by an industry wide evaluation not depending upon a limited number of efficient energy firms in a reference set as found in a conventional use of dea the analytical capability can reduce the number of efficient energy firms third the proposed approach can provide their efficiency based ranking scores finally we can conduct a rank sum test based upon their ranking scores to obtain a statistical inference as an application this study uses the proposed approach to examine the performance of japanese electric power industry we find two economic implications one of the two implications is that no major change has occurred in the operational performance of japanese electric power industry because of japanese sluggish economy from 2005 to 2009 the other implication indicates that there are strategic differences in the operation of japanese electric power firms after the liberalization

evaluating density forecasts with applications to financial risk management density forecasting is increasingly more important and commonplace for example in financial risk management yet little attention has been given to the evaluation of density forecasts the authors develop a simple and operational framework for density forecast evaluation they illustrate the framework with a detailed application to density forecasting of asset returns in environments with time varying volatility finally the authors discuss several extensions copyright 1998 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

capital vintage time trends and technical change in the electric power industry beginning with tinbergen in 1942 economists have employed a time trend in cost or production functions to represent the rate at which new technology is introduced into the production unit in sufficiently flexible models of the production process the time trend may be used to obtain estimates of the rate as well as direction of technical change the use of the time trend is generally defended on pragmatic grounds as no theoretical justification exists for assuming that new technology is introduced at a steady rate that is independent of a firm s investment in r d education capital of a more recent vintage etc in recent years alternatives to the traditional time trend have been sought to represent the rate at which new technology is introduced research in this area has been concentrated in the telecommunications industry where the stock of r d or the percentage of calls completed by direct dialing or modern switching facilities have been employed as technological indices by nadiri and schankerman 32 denny et al 14 and christensen et al 7 the latter two studies indicate that explicit technological indices provide a better representation of the pace of innovation than the time trend this conclusion must remain tentative however as it is not possible to determine what is the true direction of technical change in these studies this shortcoming is overcome in a recent study by kopp and smith 24 who compare the performance of time trends and explicit technological indices in a study using pseudo data generated by process analysis models their results unambiguously support the use of technologically explicit indicators of technical change and indicate that the use of a time trend may not provide a consistent estimate of the direction of technical change this study does not however shed any light on the ability of a time trend to accurately reflect the rate of technical change the purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of alternative technological indices on the estimated rate and direction of technical change in the electric power industry the performance of a time trend is compared with that of a vintage index computed as the average age of a firm s steam generating capacity this latter index is consistent with the notion that new technology is embodied in newly constructed capital an assumption sup

cost efficiency of electric grid utilities in china a comparison of estimates from sfa mle sfa bayes and stoned cnls with the purpose of estimating the range of cost efficiency levels of the power grid sector in china we assembled a data set including 23 provincial power grid companies spanning from 2005 to 2009 and conducted an empirical study based on the sfa mle sfa bayes and stoned cnls methodologies empirical results show that the average values of efficiency from different models vary from 0 85 to 0 92 depending especially on the assumptions underlying inefficiency content further results demonstrate that there is exogenous technical progress during the sample period and per capita gdp of the province is negatively related to the costs of the electric grid company located in the corresponding province we hope this empirical study will contribute to the debate on an efficiency based regulation scheme which was introduced to the chinese electric grid sector on a pilot base in 2014

service quality in the electricity industry the role of privatization and managerial behavior abstract this paper analyzes the relationship between privatization and service quality in the electricity industry and tests the hypothesis that managerial behavior is a significant intervening factor the sample includes 31 italian distributors over the period 1998 2004 their quality performance is represented by continuity of supply an aspect of quality that is both contractible and regulated results of the empirical analysis suggest that the transfer of shareholdings to private investors does not lead to quality degradation the results also suggest that managerial dominance translates into a reduction in supply quality this effect is likely to be particularly strong for public sector utilities

determinants of business cycle comovement a robust analysis abstract this paper investigates the determinants of business cycle comovement between countries our dataset includes over 100 countries both developed and developing we search for variables that are robust in explaining comovement using the approach of leamer amer econom rev 73 1983 31 variables considered are i bilateral trade between countries ii total trade in each country iii sectoral structure iv similarity in export and import baskets v factor endowments and vi gravity variables we find that bilateral trade is robust however two variables that the literature has argued are important for business cycles industrial structure and currency unions are found not to be robust

time of use pricing for load management programs in taiwan power company load management programs have been actively performed by the utilities to reduce peak demand and improve system load factor in recent years the time of use tou tariff based on the peak load pricing theory has been one of the most effective load management strategies proper tou rate structure can actually reflect the generation cost of electricity supplying and give a guideline for customers to modify the power consumption pattern so that the system load factor can be improved the inverse electricity pricing rule can be applied as the basis of tou pricing in this paper the price elasticities of industrial customers of taipower system are solved by the statistical regression model with 2620 data samples

regulated equity returns a puzzle abstract based on a database of u s electric utility rate cases spanning nearly four decades the returns on equity authorized by regulators have exhibited a large and growing premium over the riskless rate of return this growing premium does not appear to be explained by traditional asset pricing models often in direct contrast to regulators stated intent we suggest possible alternative explanations drawn from finance public policy public choice and the behavioral economics literature however absent some normative justification for this premium it would appear that regulators are authorizing excessive returns on equity to utility investors and that these excess returns translate into tangible profits for utility firms

the multiproduct firm quality choice and regulation a monopolist facing a market of heterogeneous consumers will distort the quality a rray this paper explores three regulatory remedies minimum quality s tandards mqs maximum price regulation mpr and rate of return re gulation rorr that can counteract this distortion mqs and mpr rais e the quality offered to consumers with a low willingness to pay for quality while mqs have no effect on the quality offered to consumers with a high willingness to pay mpr decreases the quality offered to this group if production of high low quality goods is capital i ntensive rorr increases decreases the quality offered to both grou ps copyright 1988 by blackwell publishing ltd

optimal monetary and fiscal policy in a currency union we lay out a tractable model for the analysis of optimal monetary and fiscal policy in a currency union the monetary authority sets a common interest rate for the union whereas fiscal policy is implemented at the country level through the choice of government spending in the presence of country specific shocks and nominal rigidities the policy mix that is optimal from the viewpoint of the union as a whole requires that inflation be stabilized at the union level by the common central bank whereas fiscal policy has a country specific stabilization role one beyond the efficient provision of public goods

pricing efficiency under rate of return regulation some empirical evidence for the electric utility industry the authors test quasi optimal pricing rules for rate of return regulation for a sample of electric utilities they estimate the regulated cost function and demand equations by class of customer for the sample to yield the cost and demand parameters required to assess the utility rate structures the results indicate that the price structure of electricity by class of customer is not quasi optimal and that welfare improvement might be possible under alternative prices searching for the price structure which satisfies the criteria they find that commercial users rates have been too high relative to residential and to a lesser extent industrial rates they note that commercial uses tend to be less organized and more poorly represented in the rate making process 16 references 8 tables

forecasting the distribution of economic variables in a data rich environment this article investigates the relevance of considering a large number of macroeconomic indicators to forecast the complete distribution of a variable the baseline time series model is a semiparametric specification based on the quantile autoregressive qar model that assumes that the quantiles depend on the lagged values of the variable we then augment the time series model with macroeconomic information from a large dataset by including principal components or a subset of variables selected by lasso we forecast the distribution of the h month growth rate for four economic variables from 1975 to 2011 and evaluate the forecast accuracy relative to a stochastic volatility model using the quantile score the results for the output and employment measures indicate that the multivariate models outperform the time series forecasts in particular at long horizons and in tails of the distribution while for the inflation variables the improved performance occurs mostly at the 6 month horizon we also illustra

regulatory restructuring and incumbent price dynamics the case of u s local telephone markets prior to the telecommunications act of 1996 many u s states restructured their regulatory framework by replacing rate of return regulation with competition in both the local exchange service and local long distance markets and adopting price regulation price caps and price freezes using a panel data set of incumbent firm prices for three services i investigate whether price regulation and differences in entry conditions affect incumbent operators rate structures i find that competition has prompted a significant amount of rate rebalancing by reducing the amount of cross subsidization present in local telephone markets in addition the added flexibility of price cap regulation speeds the rate rebalance effects of competition

measuring regional effects of monetary policy in canada this article measures monetary policy shocks and examines whether the effects of such shocks have differential regional effects in canada we identify three possible sources of regional effects differences in the importance of interest sensitive industries differences in the contribution of exports to output and differences in the proportion of small relative to large firms using the overnight interest rate as the instrument of monetary policy we present impulse responses of industry output from a recursive vector autoregression which incorporates a cointegrating relation the results show that manufacturing and primary industries are the most interest sensitive we conduct impulse responses of provincial employment from a monetary contraction the results show that newfoundland and prince edward island pei primary industry based provinces are strongly and adversely affected by a monetary contraction manitoba saskatchewan and alberta also primary based are also affected ontario which is man

is canada an optimal currency area an inflation targeting perspective we propose a method based on the currency union model of gali and monacelli 2008 to determine whether a region within an existing currency area belongs in the currency union the method involves assessing the predictability of regional inflation rates at medium term horizons we apply the method to the canadian provinces and find that for all but alberta there is little evidence of costs in terms of inflation arising from national monetary policy for alberta the evidence suggests that they are not as well served by the inflation targeting framework and that a more flexible policy environment might improve inflation outcomes

what is wrong with taylor rules using judgment in monetary policy through targeting rules it is argued that inflation targeting is best understood as a commitment to a targeting rule rather than an instrument rule e ither ageneral targeting rule explicit objectives for monetary policy or a specific targeting rule a criterion for the forecasts of the target variables to be fulfilled essentially the equality of the marginal rates of transformation and substitution between the target variables targeting rules allow the use of judgment and extramodel information are more robust and easier to verify than optimal instrument rules and they can nevertheless bring the economy close to the socially optimal equilibrium

identifying a policymaker s target an application to the bank of canada we develop a new way to test hypotheses about policymakers targets and imple ment that test for canadian monetary policy for example if the bank of canada is targeting a 2 per cent inflation rate and if the bank s instrument takes eight quarters to affect inflation then deviations of inflation from 2 per cent should be uncorrelated with the bank s informa tion set lagged eight quarters we show that there was a major change in the bank s objec tives near the time when formal inflation targets were announced and that the bank has indeed been targeting inflation since then jel code e52 e61

regional income fluctuations common trends and common cycles this paper investigates trend and cycle dynamics in per capita income for the major u s regions during the 1956 1995 period cointegration and serial correlation common features information are used in jointly decomposing the series into trend and cycle components we find considerable differences in the volatility of regional cycles controlling for differences in volatility we find a great deal of comovement in the cyclical response for all regions but the far west possible sources underlying differences in regional cycles are explored such as the share of a region s income accounted for by manufacturing defense spending as a proportion of a region s income oil price shocks and the stance of monetary policy somewhat surprisingly we find that the share of manufacturing in a region seems to account for little of the variation in regional cycles relative to national cycles but manufacturing share differentially affects trend growth for four of the seven regions studied

product complementarities capabilities and governance a dynamic transaction cost perspective the organization and governance of the transactions that comprise a bundling arrangement depend on the distribution of capabilities among firms and the amount of time during which the window of opportunity for earning rents is expected to remain open firms engaged in inter firm collaboration must undertake support transactions related to billing marketing customer support and product repair these support transactions differ from the core transactions that have traditionally been perceived as sufficient to provide a product bundle since support transactions create costs of their own the market may turn out to be an expensive means of governing collaborative arrangements undertaken for bundling purposes the telecommunications service sector provides an illustration copyright 1997 by oxford university press

combining var and dsge forecast densities a popular macroeconomic forecasting strategy utilizes many models to hedge against instabilities of unknown timing see among others stock and watson 2004 clark and mccracken 2010 and jore et al 2010 existing studies of this forecasting strategy exclude dynamic stochastic general equilibrium dsge models despite the widespread use of these models by monetary policymakers in this paper we use the linear opinion pool to combine inflation forecast densities from many vector autoregressions vars and a policymaking dsge model the dsge receives a substantial weight in the pool at short horizons provided the var components exclude structural breaks in this case the inflation forecast densities exhibit calibration failure allowing for structural breaks in the vars reduces the weight on the dsge considerably but produces well calibrated forecast densities for inflation

regional redistribution and stabilization by the center in canada france the uk and the us abstract this paper re examines earlier estimates of regional redistribution and stabilization through the central government budget in the us and produces new estimates of this redistribution and stabilization in the us canada france and the uk the new estimates rest on panel data econometrics and an adherence to certain accounting principles that have occasionally been violated in the past as a result of the accounting the peak estimates for the us and canada in the earlier literature are never attained regional stabilization of personal income through the central government budget emerges as close to 20 in the us france and the uk but only 10 to 14 in canada in case of gross product instead of personal income accounting regional stabilization is closer to 10 in the us as regards france and the uk the use of panel data econometrics proves essential

macroeconomic forecasting using diffusion indexes this article studies forecasting a macroeconomic time series variable using a large number of predictors the predictors are summarized using a small number of indexes constructed by principal component analysis an approximate dynamic factor model serves as the statistical framework for the estimation of the indexes and construction of the forecasts the method is used to construct 6 12 and 24 monthahead forecasts for eight monthly u s macroeconomic time series using 215 predictors in simulated real time from 1970 through 1998 during this sample period these new forecasts outperformed univariate autoregressions small vector autoregressions and leading indicator models

regulation capital vintage and technical change in the electric utility industry this paper presents estimates of the rate of technical change in the electric power industry over the period 1951 78 the estimated model directly incorporates the effects of rate of return regulation and uses both a time trend and a vintage index to represent disembodied and embodied technical change respectively the results indicate that disembodied technical change was the primary source of cost reduction during 1951 70 and that tighter regulation as represented by a one point reduction in the rate of return would have reduced the rate of technical change by an average of 1 2 during 1951 78 34 references 18 footnotes 3 tables