why has u s inflation become harder to forecast we examine whether the u s rate of price inflation has become harder to forecast and to the extent that it has what changes in the inflation process have made it so the main finding is that the univariate inflation process is well described by an unobserved component trend cycle model with stochastic volatility or equivalently an integrated moving average process with time varying parameters this model explains a variety of recent univariate inflation forecasting puzzles and begins to explain some multivariate inflation forecasting puzzles as well

entrepreneurs perceived chances for success abstract entrepreneurs involved in planning or starting firms must engage in a continuing process of appraising prospects for success these assessments presumably bear upon the preparations they make as well as at some later point whether they decide to make major changes or even to discontinue the business in this study data from 2994 entrepreneurs who had recently become business owners were analyzed to determine their perceived changes of success although previous evidence on business survival led to the hypothesis that the entrepreneurs would only be cautiously optimistic this was not the case they perceived their prospects as very favorable with 81 seeing odds of 7 out of 10 or better and a remarkable 33 seeing odds of success of 10 out of 10 in considering the prospects for other businesses like their own they perceived odds which were significantly lower but still moderately favorable based upon previous research on factors associated with new business success it was hypothesized that those who were more likely to succeed based upon their personal backgrounds and the nature of their new firms would be more optimistic however this was not the case those who were poorly prepared were just as optimistic as those who were well prepared at this point shortly after having become business owners the assessment by entrepreneurs of their own likelihood of success was dramatically detached from past macro statistics from perceived prospects for peer businesses and from characteristics typically associated with higher performing new firms the psychological literature on post decisional bolstering suggests that decision makers in many settings tend to bolster or exaggerate the attractiveness of an option after it has been chosen this coupled with the tendency of entrepreneurs to believe that they can control their own destinies implies that the extreme optimism observed here is probably a typical occurrence for entrepreneurs the findings suggest that it is probably natural to experience feelings of entrepreneurial euphoria when first becoming a business owner with the available evidence it is difficult to judge whether this leads to inadequate preparations or an inability to diagnose problems and make adjustments after the business is started this extreme optimism probably does contribute to the heavy personal commitments observed here in which the median entrepreneur devoted more than 60 hours per week to the business the entrepreneur would seem well advised to form relationships with outsiders such as board members and professional advisors who can be objective and detached in diagnosing problems and assessing objectively the prospects for the business in its current form

real time density forecasts from bayesian vector autoregressions with stochastic volatility central banks and other forecasters are increasingly interested in various aspects of density forecasts however recent sharp changes in macroeconomic volatility including the great moderation and the more recent sharp rise in volatility associated with increased variation in energy prices and the deep global recession pose significant challenges to density forecasting accordingly this paper examines with real time data density forecasts of u s gdp growth unemployment inflation and the federal funds rate from bayesian vector autoregression bvar models with stochastic volatility the results indicate that adding stochastic volatility to bvars materially improves the real time accuracy of density forecasts this article has supplementary material online

a new index of financial conditions we use factor augmented vector autoregressive models with time varying coefficients and stochastic volatility to construct a financial conditions index that can accurately track expectations about growth in key us macroeconomic variables time variation in the models parameters allows for the weights attached to each financial variable in the index to evolve over time furthermore we develop methods for dynamic model averaging or selection which allow the financial variables entering into the financial conditions index to change over time we discuss why such extensions of the existing literature are important and show them to be so in an empirical application involving a wide range of financial variables

regulatory reform in the european community in 1985 the commission of the european community ec put forward 282 proposals for the completion of the internal market in the same year the european council of ministers adopted the single european act which enlarges the range of matters over which decisions can be taken at a qualified majority by the end of november 1991 the commission had formulated all proposals 217 of them have been approved by the council and around 70 percent of those have been implemented in national laws it is only in the area of indirect taxation that little harmonization has been achieved so far such a swift change in many regulations lies in stark contrast with the experience of the decade preceding the adoption of the single european act during which the european commission and council of ministers did not undertake significant changes of course the substitution of consensus by qualified majority as a decision rule in the council or at least the threat of it few

ideas and work of richard m cyert abstract richard m cyert s seminal contribution to economics is the development of behavioral theory of the firm this theory has become an important plank in the bridge from economics to management his other contributions include applications of bayesian theory to economics statistical sampling in accounting experimental economics and developing an economic theory of stragetic management

macroeconomic forecasting and structural change the aim of this paper is to assess whether explicitly modeling structural change increases the accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts we produce real time out of sample forecasts for inflation the unemployment rate and the interest rate using a time varying coefficients var with stochastic volatility tv var for the us the model generates accurate predictions for the three variables in particular for inflation the tv var outperforms in terms of mean square forecast error all the competing models fixed coefficients vars time varying ars and the na ove random walk model these results are also shown to hold over the period commonly referred to as the great moderation

on money and output is money redundant abstract there is an emerging consensus that money can be largely ignored in making monetary policy decisions rudebusch and svensson 1999 policy rules and inflation targeting in taylor j b ed monetary policy rules university of chicago press chicago 203 246 2002 eurosystem monetary targeting lessons from us data european economic review 46 417 442 provide some empirical support for this view we reconsider the role of money and find that money is not redundant more specifically there is a significant statistical relationship between lagged values of money and the output gap even when lagged values of real interest rates and lagged values of the output gap are accounted for we also find that inside and outside money provide significant information in predicting movements in the output gap

timid choices and bold forecasts decision makers have a strong tendency to consider problems as unique they isolate the current choice from future opportunities and neglect the statistics of the past in evaluating current plans

combining forecast densities from vars with uncertain instabilities recursive weight forecast combination is often found to an ineffective method of improving point forecast accuracy in the presence of uncertain instabilities we examine the effectiveness of this strategy for forecast densities using many vector autoregressive var and autoregressive ar models of output growth inflation and interest rates our proposed recursive weight density combination strategy based on the recursive logarithmic score of the forecast densities produces well calibrated predictive densities for us real time data by giving substantial weight to models that allow for structural breaks in contrast equal weight combinations produce poorly calibrated forecast densities for great moderation data copyright 2010 john wiley sons ltd

central bank communication and monetary policy a survey of theory and evidence over the last two decades communication has become an increasingly important aspect of monetary policy these real world developments have spawned a huge new scholarly literature on central bank communication mostly empirical and almost all of it written in this decade we survey this ever growing literature the evidence suggests that communication can be an important and powerful part of the central bank s toolkit since it has the ability to move financial markets to enhance the predictability of monetary policy decisions and potentially to help achieve central banks macroeconomic objectives however the large variation in communication strategies across central banks suggests that a consensus has yet to emerge on what constitutes an optimal communication strategy

mapping india s regional subcultures implications for international management as india continues to emerge as a global economic player scholars and practitioners increasingly need to understand the cultural heterogeneity within this large and populous nation based on lenartowicz and roth s framework of culture assessment we have identified nine distinct subcultural regions of india and used explanations grounded in functional and neo institutional theories to account for the origin and maintenance of cultural distinctiveness of these regions further we developed seven cultural value dimensions for the indian society and used these to hypothesize and empirically test the existence of cultural differences within india results supported our hypothesized arguments this study advances our knowledge of how global functional and institutional forces have combined with national forces to shape india s overall culture and how more local forces have shaped its regions methodologically it identifies and develops measures that specifically reflect the values of individuals living in india and uses these to assess intra national cultural differences within this nation further it suggests how use of multiple methods can enable us to understand the simultaneous presence of somewhat contradictory values within a society the study also provides applications of the proposed cultural value dimensions and advises implications of regional subcultures for various social and organizational phenomena

federal reserve information and the behavior of interest rates this paper tests for the existence of asymmetric information between the federal reserve and the public by examining federal reserve and commercial inflation forecasts it demonstrates that the federal reserve has considerable information about inflation beyond what is known to commercial forecasters it also shows that monetary policy actions provide signals of the federal reserve s information and that commercial forecasters modify their forecasts in response to those signals these findings may explain why long term interest rates typically rise in response to shifts to tighter monetary policy jel e52 e43 d82 asymmetric information between the federal reserve and the public is a phenomenon that is often posited but rarely tested numerous models of central bank behavior for example show that the existence of asymmetric information has important implications for the effectiveness of policy and the consequences of dynamic inconsistency yet there

explaining the great moderation it is not the shocks this paper shows that the explanation of the decline in the volatility of gdp growth since the mid eighties is not the decline in the volatility of exogenous shocks but rather a change in their propagation mechanism

how did the increase in economic inequality between 1970 and 1990 affect children s educational attainment 1 this study estimates the effect of changes in economic inequality between 1970 and 1990 on children s educational attainment data on individual children from the panel study of income dynamics is combined with other data on state characteristics growing up in a state with widespread economic inequality increases educational attainment for high income children and lowers it for low income children most of the effect is due to factors unassociated with family income or economic segregation in the state these other factors include state spending for schooling and the increase in the returns to schooling over this period

the persistence of inflation in the united states abstract has the persistence of inflation in the united states changed since 1965 we estimate the persistence of inflation over time using different measures and estimation procedures and we produce confidence intervals for our estimates as well as formal tests of unchanged persistence we find that inflation persistence has been high and approximately unchanged in the u s over our sample period we reconcile our results with other studies that reached different conclusions

competitive behavior and nonfinancial objectives entry exit and pricing decisions in closely held firms because of the predominance of the assumption of profit maximization as the goal of the firm and its decision makers especially in the competitive strategy literature research has yet to investigate how differences in objectives might influence competitive actions such as entry exit and pricing decisions this represents an important gap in the literature given the fundamental role of objectives in decision making and widespread evidence that many firms especially those that are closely held are motivated by nonfinancial objectives in addition to an interest in financial returns to further our understanding of firms competitive strategy decisions we discuss how the presence of nonfinancial objectives in closely held firms leads to a weakening of the relationship between economic indications of profitability and competitive behaviors using a unique data set of nearly 4 000 closely held and non closely held establishments engaged in local competition in the texas hotel industry we find that the e

the great moderation in the united kingdom we use a bayesian time varying parameters structural var with stochastic volatility for gdp deflator inflation real gdp growth a 3 month nominal rate and the rate of growth of m4 to investigate the underlying causes of the great moderation in the united kingdom our evidence points toward a dominant role played by good luck in fostering the more stable macroeconomic environment of the last two decades results from counterfactual simulations in particular show that i bringing the monetary policy committee back in time would only have had a limited impact on the great inflation episode at the cost of lower output growth ii imposing the 1970s monetary rule over the entire sample period would have made almost no difference in terms of inflation and output growth outcomes and iii the great inflation was due to a dominant extent to large demand non policy shocks and to a lesser extent especially in 1973 and 1979 to supply shocks

common drifting volatility in large bayesian vars the general pattern of estimated volatilities of macroeconomic and financial variables is often broadly similar we propose two models in which conditional volatilities feature comovement and study them using u s macroeconomic data the first model specifies the conditional volatilities as driven by a single common unobserved factor plus an idiosyncratic component we label this model bvar with general factor stochastic volatility bvar gfsv and we show that the loss in terms of marginal likelihood from assuming a common factor for volatility is moderate the second model which we label bvar with common stochastic volatility bvar csv is a special case of the bvar gfsv in which the idiosyncratic component is eliminated and the loadings to the factor are set to 1 for all the conditional volatilities such restrictions permit a convenient kronecker structure for the posterior variance of the var coefficients which in turn permits estimating the model even with large datasets while perhaps misspecifi

using business simulation games in regulatory impact analysis the case of policies aimed at reducing nitrogen leaching in the past regulatory impact analysis was predominantly based on the rational choice assumption of a completely informed and exclusively profit maximizing homo oeconomicus real economic actors however are multiple goal and boundedly rational decision makers an exclusive reliance on rational choice models therefore generates the risk that both the pace and the type of behavioural adaptations to changing institutional environments are misjudged against this background this article addresses three questions first can we use business simulation games as a convincing but low cost experimental tool for policy analysis second how do intentionally varied nitrogen extensification schemes impact the behaviour of students who participate in an explorative business simulation study third do nitrogen reduction policies that are framed as voluntary as opposed to prescriptive schemes have a different impact on behaviour even if they lead to the same profits respectively in our business simulation game th

does money matter abstract the desire to attain personal wealth has long been regarded as the foremost motive for entrepreneurship other goals and values however may also contribute to entrepreneurial motivation thus the extent to which money matters relative to other motives is an empirical question in this study we examine the role of wealth as the motive for the decision to found new ventures three focal questions guide our research 1 does money matter more relative to other decision dimensions in deciding to start a new high technology venture 2 does money matter more to entrepreneurs compared to non entrepreneurs and 3 does money matter in absolute terms that is does a decision model that focuses solely on the motive of wealth attainment parsimoniously predict entrepreneurs start up decisions we conducted in depth interviews with 51 entrepreneurs and a control group of 28 senior managers who decided not to start ventures non entrepreneurs in the high technology industry in british columbia to address our research questions the motives we examined are wealth attainment and an aggregate of other dimensions identified by entrepreneurs and managers we considered three components of values participants ratings of the importance of various decision dimensions their rating of the salience of these dimensions and their satisfaction with prior levels of attainment on those decision dimensions we assessed beliefs as participants perceived probability of attaining their desired level of a particular decision dimension in each of three alternatives the position held at the time the venture decision was made the venture itself and the next best career alternative at that time the data were analyzed to compare entrepreneurs values and beliefs regarding wealth with an aggregate of other decision dimensions our relative hypotheses and with those of non entrepreneurs our comparative hypotheses our findings do not support the common perception that money is the only or even the most important motive for entrepreneurs decisions to start new ventures wealth attainment was significantly less important to entrepreneurs relative to an aggregate of 10 other decision dimensions and entrepreneurs did not rate wealth as any more important than did non entrepreneurs non entrepreneurs rated wealth as no more important than other motives wealth attainment was also significantly less salient to entrepreneurs decisions to venture than were other motives non entrepreneurs reported that wealth was significantly more salient to their decision against founding a venture than other dimensions in fact non entrepreneurs rated wealth attainment as significantly more salient to their decision against founding than entrepreneurs rated it for their decision to proceed with starting a high technology business a significant number of entrepreneurs started businesses even when they believed that doing so offered them a lower probability of obtaining their most desired level of wealth than did one of their other alternatives satisfaction ratings and stated beliefs also dispute classical predictions just prior to making the decision to venture the entrepreneurs in our study were as satisfied with wealth as they were with other decision dimensions the non entrepreneurs were actually more satisfied with wealth attainment than with other dimensions a comparison of the groups revealed no difference in satisfaction with wealth attainment levels entrepreneurs did believe that their chances of attaining their desired level of wealth were much greater through founding a new high technology venture than through their other alternatives this difference in beliefs however was not significantly greater than their optimistic beliefs about chances of attaining desired levels of other dimensions it was significantly higher compared to the non entrepreneurs belief difference measures for wealth in fact the entrepreneurs stated beliefs regarding the chances of attaining their desired levels of all dimensions were higher than those of the non entrepreneurs suggesting that entrepreneurs were simply more optimistic at the time of their decision than non entrepreneurs salience findings suggest that these optimistic beliefs about wealth did not motivate the founding decision alone we can distinguish those people who successfully started ventures by their regard for wealth as a less salient factor and their beliefs in higher chances of a venture producing monetary and other returns other motives such as innovation vision independence and challenge were more important and much more salient to this sample of entrepreneurs our findings have implications for practice teaching and research venture capitalists who partially base their assessment of entrepreneurs on the extent to which they are motivated to make a great deal of money may benefit from reconsideration of this criterion we have evidence of one group of high technology entrepreneurs who achieved success without placing much decision weight on attainment of personal wealth nascent entrepreneurs and those who teach entrepreneurship can use this empirical finding to argue two main points 1 not all entrepreneurs found a business for personal wealth reasons and 2 one need not be motivated by personal wealth attainment to be a successful entrepreneur similarly theoretical models that assume money is the primary motive for entrepreneurial activity require re examination future research in entrepreneurship should focus less on wealth attainment and more on other motives for the venturing decision a multiple attribute decision model may be able to more fully explain venturing decisions

liquidity preference in a portfolio framework and the monetary theory of kahn this paper examines the relation between variations in the propensity towards liquidity preference price adjustment and shifts in portfolio allocation by expanding kahn s idea of marginal equilibrium under strong uncertainty in financial markets and contributes to recent post keynesian attempts to develop a liquidity preference theory of asset prices by providing an analysis of the price adjustment mechanism the notion of the own rate of money interest is utilised to develop a multi asset liquidity preference framework which is consistent with uneven variations of liquidity premia across assets in response to changes in the degree of strong uncertainty that is specific to different investors with variable allocation of assets in their portfolios more specifically in the context of this portfolio framework it is established that an increase in the state of strong uncertainty state of bearishness makes less liquid assets further less inconvenient than more liquid assets in periods characterised by greater strong uncertainty equilibrium is restored through a greater demand for more liquid assets including money relative to the demand for less liquid assets and therefore through a higher own rate of money interest for less liquid assets than warranted which shows the ineffectiveness of standard monetary policy

structural changes in the us economy is there a role for monetary policy this paper investigates the contribution of monetary policy to the changes in output growth and inflation dynamics in the us we identify a policy shock and a policy rule in at ime varying coefficients var using robust sign restrictions the transmission of policy shocks has been relatively stable the variance of the policy shock has decreased over time but policy shocks account for a small fraction of the level and of the variations in inflation and output growth volatility and persistence we find little evidence of a significant increase in the long run response of the interest rate to inflation a more aggressive inflation policy in the 1970s would have produced large output growth costs