information value and risk premium in agricultural production the case of split nitrogen application for corn this article considers an agricultural production model of sequential nitrogen application under risk because of random shocks between subsequent production stages optimal fertilization decisions depend on the magnitude of farmers risk aversion risk premium and the possibility for farmers to process information value of information we propose a joint estimation procedure of technology and risk aversion parameters using a structural simulation based econometric procedure parameter estimates allow to compute both the value of information and the risk premium which account for about 30 of fertilizer cost for midwest corn producers

the economic value of farm program base mixed integer programming and dynamic programming models were used to obtain the implicit economic value of the initial endowment of base acreage on a cotton farm while low levels of initial base have almost no impact on land value high levels can be worth a considerable premium with the implicit value of additional initial base endowment increasing at an increasing rate this pattern of increasing implicit value can be explained by provisions of the farm program allowing base to be created by a landowner who develops a planting history in a program commodity

how investible is bitcoin analyzing the liquidity and transaction costs of bitcoin markets abstract we examine the investibility of bitcoin by exploring the trading dynamics and market microstructure of bitcoin on three us cryptocurrency exchanges using high frequency intraday data of individual trades and quotes although all exchanges offer continuous trading we find that the highest trading activity highest volatility and lowest spreads coincide with us market trading hours suggesting that most trades are non algorithmic and executed by retail investors we further find that average quoted and effective spreads for bitcoin are lower than spreads on major equity exchanges implying that bitcoin is highly investible for retail size transactions

decoupled farm program payments are really decoupled the theory lump sum transfers to farmers are commonly believed to affect the production choices of farmers in the presence of risk and uncertainty this paper shows that if farmers have off farm investment and employment opportunities production decisions are decoupled from lump sum subsidies in the presence of risk and uncertainty our results are reconciled with existing results by showing that previously identified production adjustments are portfolio adjustments

do decoupled payments affect investment financing constraints evidence from irish agriculture abstract this paper empirically tests whether decoupled subsidies decrease investment financing constraints faced by farms using a panel dataset from ireland over the period 2005 2010 we test whether the cap decoupled subsidy payments reduce credit constraints by altering the risk profile of farm earnings we test for financing constraints in a neoclassical q model using investment cash flow sensitivities our econometric methodology controls for censoring heterogeneity and endogeneity we find that decoupled subsidies do reduce credit constraints the effect is greater for farms that face higher constraints dairy farmers and younger farms this evidence suggests that over and above the effect on production indicated in previous research decoupling affects farm investment through financial channels

the decoupling of farm programs revisiting the wealth effect recent reforms of agricultural policies in developed countries have introduced direct payments as replacements for traditional production enhancing instruments whereas these new instruments can in principle influence production through several channels current empirical studies show no significant impact on production direct payments mainly increase land values in this article we revisit the evaluation of the coupling effects passing through the wealth of agricultural households the initial wealth of these agents while mainly being in the form of land asset holding is always assumed to be fixed to the contrary we show theoretically and through an empirical simulation exercise that once the impact of farm programs on initial wealth is properly accounted for the measure of the coupling effects is not as negligible as found in previous studies copyright 2010 oxford university press

speculative bubbles in bitcoin markets an empirical investigation into the fundamental value of bitcoin amid its rapidly increasing usage and immense public interest the subject of bitcoin has raised profound economic and societal issues in this paper we undertake economic and econometric modelling of bitcoin prices as with many asset classes we show that bitcoin exhibits speculative bubbles further we find empirical evidence that the fundamental price of bitcoin is zero

volatility estimation for bitcoin a comparison of garch models we explore the optimal conditional heteroskedasticity model with regards to goodness of fit to bitcoin price data it is found that the best model is the ar cgarch model highlighting the significance of including both a short run and a long run component of the conditional variance

who really benefits from agricultural subsidies evidence from field level data if agricultural subsidies are largely capitalized into farmland values then expanding support for agriculture may not benefit farmers who rent the land they farm suddenly reducing subsidies may be problematic to the extent that land values already embody expectations about future subsidies existing evidence on the incidence of subsidies on land values is mixed identification is obscured by unobserved or imprecisely measured factors that tend to be correlated with subsidies especially land quality and time varying factors like commodity prices and adverse weather events a problem that has received less attention is the fact that subsides and land quality on rented land may differ from owned land since most farms possess both rented and owned acreage farm level measures of subsidies land values and rental rates may bias estimated incidence using a new field level data set that for the first time precisely links subsidies to land parcels we show that this bias is considerable where farm level estimates suggest an incidence of 20 to 79 cents of the marginal subsidy dollar field level estimates from the same farms indicate that landlords capture just 10 25 cents the size of the farm and the duration of the rental arrangement have substantial effects incidence falls by 5 15 cents per acre when doubling total operated acres and the incidence falls by 0 1 1 2 cents with each additional year of the rental arrangement low incidence of subsides on rents combined with the farm size and duration effects suggest that farmers renting land have monopsony power

international portfolio nondiversification and exchange rate variability abstract incomplete international portfolio diversification is implied by an equilibrium models of exchange rates with nontraded goods the model can also explain the greater correlation between consumption and income within a country than between consumption across countries nontraded goods make more stringent the elasticity conditions required to explain exchange rate variability resulting from current productivity disturbances though not from disturbances to fiscal policies or the prospective return to investment the model is also consistent with international real interest rate differentials changes over time in the current account and relative wealth across nations and observed time series properties of exchange rates

the degree of decoupling of area payments for arable crops in the european union in 1992 the common agricultural policy cap of the european union eu significantly changed direction in the arable crop sector with the so called macsharry reform this reform which reduced cereal intervention prices eliminated output payments for oilseeds and introduced per hectare compensatory payments and a compulsory set aside requirement attached to these payments implied a significant change in the policy incentives to produce in 1999 intervention prices were cut further bringing them closer to world market levels as well as aligning payments of cereals and oilseeds the most recent reform in

crude oil price and cryptocurrencies evidence of volatility connectedness and hedging strategy abstract this paper examines the volatility connectedness between crude oil spot prices and cryptocurrencies given that cryptocurrency markets are perceived as commodity markets there exist some levels of effects from and to other markets like the crude oil petroleum market using the var mgarch gjr bekk techniques and the wald tests we found evidence of bidirectional volatility spillover between the crude oil market and bit capital vendor as well as a unidirectional volatility spillover effect from crude oil market to bitcoin cash market and finally ethereum xrp and reddcoin cryptocurrency markets have a significant unidirectional volatility spillover to the crude oil markets in addition while the hedging potentials of crude oil assets on ethereum cryptocurrency may be short lived the crude oil asset hedging potentials for solve elastos and bit capital vendor are rather long lived into the future

estimating the effects of information surprises and trading on stock returns using a mixed jump diffusion model i present a methodology that uses the mixed jump diffusion model for stock returns to estimate the separate effects of information surprises and strategic trading around corporate events using simulation techniques i show that for events with multiple announcements spread over a long time the estimators derived from the mixed jump diffusion model are more powerful compared to the traditional cumulative abnormal return estimators the new methodology is used to study the separate effects of information surprises and strategic trading associated with blockholdings and subsequent targeted repurchases i find that for more than 93 percent of the firms in our sample the mixed jump diffusion model is statistically superior to the pure diffusion model in describing stock returns more important i find a statistically significant negative effect due to trading while the average effect around announcements is statistically insignificant in contrast the standard cumulative abnormal return is not statistically different from zero article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

adaptive market hypothesis and evolving predictability of bitcoin abstract this study evaluates the adaptive market hypothesis amh and evolving return predictability in bitcoin market we use two robust methods in a rolling window framework to capture time varying linear and nonlinear dependence in bitcoin returns we find that market efficiency evolves with time and validates the amh in bitcoin market

modeling the reforms of the common agricultural policy for arable crops under uncertainty the size of the insurance and wealth effects of a change in the common agricultural policy cap for arable crops is estimated the impact of price uncertainty is accounted for in the specific decision making structure of the european union eu arable crop producers under nonlinear mean variance risk preferences a system of output supply input demand and land allocation equations is estimated on a sample of italian specialized arable crop farms the simulation of the impact of the recent reforms confirms that farmers output responses are consistently affected by the size of the insurance and wealth effects

a dynamic analysis of land prices a dynamic model of land prices is developed it derives arbitrage asset prices under nonadditive dynamic preferences risk aversion and transaction costs the model nests as special cases risk neutrality time additive preferences the static capital asset pricing model capm as well as the dynamic consumption based capm the model is applied to the analysis of u s land prices for the period 1950 96 the econometric results provide evidence showing that u s land price patterns are inconsistent with risk neutrality or with the static capm model no strong evidence was found against time additive preferences the econometric findings indicate that both risk aversion and transaction costs have significant effects on land prices

is bitcoin a commodity on price jumps demand shocks and certainty of supply abstract this paper discusses how similar bitcoin is to a commodity the application of a number of both linear and non linear garch models indicates that the role of extreme price movements is particularly pronounced garch models with student t innovations as well as combined jump garch models are among the models with the best fit the role of large movements is found to be stronger in the bitcoin market than in the markets for crude oil and gold as bitcoin shares with these exhaustible resource commodities characteristics such as the fixed supply the analysis of bitcoin prices can generally learn from the analysis of exhaustible resource commodities however whereas the short run supply of gold and oil are uncertain there are no uncertainties on the bitcoin supply side thus the observed movements of bitcoin prices can be interpreted as results of bitcoin demand shocks

the inefficiency of bitcoin bitcoin has received much attention in the media and by investors in recent years although there remains scepticism and a lack of understanding of this cryptocurrency we add to the literature on bitcoin by studying the market efficiency of bitcoin through a battery of robust tests evidence reveals that returns are significantly inefficient over our full sample but when we split our sample into two subsample periods we find that some tests indicate that bitcoin is efficient in the latter period therefore we conclude that bitcoin in an inefficient market but may be in the process of moving towards an efficient market

wages rents and the quality of life this study focuses on the role of wages and rents in allocating workers to locations with various quantities of amenities the theory demonstrates that if the amenity is also productive then the sign of the wage gradient is unclear while the rent gradient is positive the theory is extended to include the housing market and nontraded goods these extensions require little modification of the conclusion the empirical work on wages shows that the regional wage differences can be explained largely by these local attributes with the use of site price data implicit prices are estimated and quality of life rankings for the cities are computed

does twitter predict bitcoin this paper adds to the growing literature of bitcoin by examining the link between investor attention and bitcoin returns trading volume and realized volatility unlike previous studies we employ the number of tweets from twitter as a measure of attention rather than google trends as we argue this is a better measure of attention from more informed investors we find that the number of tweets is a significant driver of next day trading volume and realized volatility which is supported by linear and nonlinear granger causality tests

conditional jump dynamics in stock market returns this article develops a new conditional jump model to study jump dynamics in stock market returns we propose a simple filter to infer ex post the distribution of jumps this permits construction of the shock affecting the time t conditional jump intensity and is the main input into an autoregressive conditional jump intensity model the model allows the conditional jump intensity to be time varying and follows an approximate autoregressive moving average arma form the time series characteristics of 72 years of daily stock returns are analyzed using the jump model coupled with a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity garch specification of volatility we find significant time variation in the conditional jump intensity and evidence of time variation in the jump size distribution the conditional jump dynamics contribute to good in sample and out of sample fits to stock market volatility and capture the rally often observed in equity markets following a significant downturn

the effects of farm subsidies on farm exports in the united states we estimate the elasticity of u s farm exports to u s farm subsidies using a gravity model of state level farm exports to 100 major trading destinations for the period 1999 to 2011 our identification strategy exploits the within state variation that is free of endogeneity bias in the levels and trends of farm subsidies and farm exports we find that a 1 decrease in farm subsidies would reduce u s farm exports by 0 40 per annum this equivalently means that the complete abolishment of the farm subsidy program would reduce u s farm exports by approximately 15 3 billion per year importantly we document robust evidence that amber box subsidy programs such as counter cyclical payments and marketing loan gains have the strongest effect on farm exports while green box subsidy payments such as direct payments have negligible effects finally subsidy payments affect exports only in agricultural commodities not in livestock our subsidy elasticity estimates are statistically significant stable and economically meaningful and are vitally needed by u s and global policymakers in the face of critical domestic and international developments

household composition labor markets and labor demand testing for separation in agricultural household models this paper tests the separation of farm labor supply and labor demand decisions using the observation that household composition is an important determinant of farm labor use with nonseparation after assessing the conditions under which the test has power against several alternatives an empirical model is developed to test the proposition that farm employment is independent of family composition the model is estimated on a data set from rural java the null hypothesis that farm labor allocation decisions are independent of household structure is not rejected the results are robust to different specifications of the labor demand function copyright 1992 by the econometric society

on jump processes in the foreign exchange and stock markets exchange rates exhibit systematic discontinuities even after allowingfor conditional heteroskedasticity in the diffusion process the results are much more significant in theforeign exchange market than in the stock market which suggests differences in the structure of these markets finally this jump component is shown to explain some of the empirically observed mispricings in the currency options market the objective of this article is to analyze and compare the empirical distribution of returns in the stock market and in the foreign exchange market there are a number of reasons why a better understanding of the stochastic processes driving prices in these markets would be useful many financial models rely heavily on the assumption of a particular stochastic process while relatively little attention is paid to the empirical fit of the postulated distribution as a result models like option pricing models are applied indiscriminately to various markets such as the stock market and the foreign exchange market when the underlying processes may be fundamentally different the foreign exchange market for instance is characterized by active exchange rate man

what causes the attention of bitcoin bitcoin has received enormous attention both by the media and investors alike but why has bitcoin received such attention this paper answers this question by examining the relationship between investor attention and bitcoin fundamentals and finds that realized volatility and volume are both significant drivers of next day attention of bitcoin

the influence of direct payments on farmers hail insurance decisions we analyze determinants of hail insurance use of swiss farmers using fadn panel data covering the period 1990 2009 mixed effect logistic regression models are estimated to identify the most important farm and farmer characteristics that trigger insurance use in addition information on local hail risk is taken into account in these models it shows that larger farms with specialization in crop production and with larger local hail risks are more likely to adopt the hail insurance moreover insurance users are usually older and better educated since the early 1990s swiss agricultural policy has reduced price support and introduced general and ecological direct payments this has led to a much higher importance of direct payments for farmers incomes our analysis shows that this development has contributed to decreasing hail insurance adoption rates in switzerland over the period considered our results indicate that the larger the share of direct payments for total farm revenue the less attractive is insurance as a risk management strategy for farmers this interdependency should be explicitly considered by agricultural policy in the design of support mechanisms

the production effects of agricultural income support policies under uncertainty this analysis decomposes the production impacts of income support programs into wealth insurance and coupling effects under the usual assumptions about preferences the wealth and insurance effects of many support programs increase optimal input levels even for supposedly decoupled programs if the program is coupled in the usual sense then all three effects often act in the same direction it is concluded that studies of trade and domestic policy reform in stochastic environments should consider insurance and wealth effects the derivative conditions required to obtain results are also subjected to scrutiny simulations for an iowa corn producer confirm the comparative statics

do counter cyclical payments in the 2002 us farm act create incentives to produce analytical results in the literature suggest that counter cyclical payments create risk related incentives to produce even if they are decoupled under certainty hennessy d a 1998 the production effects of agricultural income support polices under uncertainty am j agric econ 80 46 57 this paper develops a framework to assess the risk related incentives to produce created by commodity programmes like the loan deficiency payments ldps and the counter cyclical payments ccps in the 2002 us farm act because ccps are paid based on fixed production quantities they have a weaker risk reducing impact than ldps the latter have a direct impact through the variance of the producer price distributions while the impact of ccps is due only to the covariance between the ccp and the producer price distributions the methodology developed by chavas j p holt m t 1990 acreage decisions under risk the case of corn and soybeans am j agric econ 72 3 529 538 is applied to calculate the appropriate variance covariance matrix of the truncated producer price distributions under the 2002 farm act risk premia are computed showing that the risk related incentives created by ccps are significant and do not disappear for levels of production above the base production on which ccps are paid

disentangling the consequences of direct payment schemes in agriculture on fixed costs exit decisions and output this paper goes beyond orthodox considerations of direct payment effects on agricultural output by highlighting the role of subsidies in affecting individual producers ability to cover fixed costs and in distorting the volume of aggregate production and net trade by implicitly discouraging exits the theoretical model considers both taxpayer and consumer financed decoupled direct payment schemes and compares them to a coupled production subsidy in terms of possible producer responses to direct payments the paper proposes an analytical framework of production decision making in the presence of a stochastic distribution of fixed costs across representative farms the paper shows that decoupled payments in theory can have a larger effect on output than coupled payments the model explicitly recognizes three consequences of domestic support a induce exit or entry b bias production incentives to domestic markets and c cross subsidize export in global markets an empirical model of the u s wheat sector is developed to illustrate the relative potential impacts of coupled versus decoupled payments on output through the effects on a farmer s ability to cover fixed costs and hence exit decisions

a characterization of oil price behavior evidence from jump models abstract this paper is concerned with the statistical behavior of oil prices in two ways it firstly applies a combined jump garch model in order to characterize the behavior of daily weekly as well as monthly oil prices secondly it relates its empirical results to implications of hotelling type resource extraction models the empirical analysis shows that oil prices are characterized by garch as well as conditional jump behavior and that a considerable portion of the total variance is triggered by sudden extreme price movements this finding implies that first oil price signals are not reliable and as a consequence both finding optimal extraction paths and decisions regarding the transmission to alternative technologies are likely to be compromised second this behavior is in stark contrast to the notion of deterministic trends in the price of oil

long memory interdependency and inefficiency in bitcoin markets abstract we model cross market bitcoin prices as long memory processes and study dynamic interdependence in a fractionally cointegrated var framework we find long memory in both the individual markets and the system of markets depicting non homogeneous informational inefficiency moreover bitcoin markets are found to be fractionally cointegrated where uncertainty negatively impacts this type of cointegration relationship

spatial asset pricing a first step people choose where to live and how much to invest in housing traditionally the first decision has been the domain of spatial economics while the second has been analyzed in finance spatial asset pricing is an attempt to combine equilibrium concepts from both disciplines in the finance context we show how spatial decisions can be framed as an expanded portfolio problem within spatial economics we identify the consequences of hedging motives for location decisions we characterize a number of observable deviations from standard predictions in finance e g the definition of the relevant market portfolio for the pricing of risk includes homeownership rates and in spatial economics e g hedging considerations and the pricing of risk affect the geographic allocation of human capital

interactions between cap agricultural and agri environmental subsidies and their effects on the uptake of organic farming we analyze the effects of the interactions that the two pillars of the european union common agricultural policy market support and rural development have on farmers uptake of organic farming practices special attention is given to the 2003 reform which substantially altered the relative importance of the two types of support by decoupling direct agricultural payments from the production of a specific crop in our empirical analysis we study the case of sweden making use of the variation in the timing of farmers decisions regarding participation in support programs we estimate a dynamic non linear unobserved effects probit model to account for unobserved individual heterogeneity and state dependence our results indicate the existence of a negative effect of the market support system in place when organic farming techniques were adopted before the 2003 reform however this effect is reversed by the introduction of decoupling furthermore the effects of support differ between certified and non certified organic production both pillars have significant effects on non certified organic farming whereas certified organic farming is exclusively driven by agro environmental subsidies

understanding volatility dynamics in the eu ets market abstract we study the short term price behavior of phase 2 eu emission allowances we model returns and volatility dynamics and we demonstrate that a standard armax garch framework is inadequate for this modeling and that the gaussianity assumption is rejected due to a number of outliers to improve the fitness of the model we combine the underlying price process with an additive stochastic jump process we improve the model s performance by introducing a time varying jump probability that is explained by two variables the daily relative change in the volume of transactions and the european commission s announcements regarding the supply of permits we show that i sharp increases in volume have led to increased volatility during the april 2005 december 2007 period but not for the period beginning in january 2008 and ii announcements induce jumps in the process that tend to increase volatility across both periods thus authorities face a trade off between disseminating information effectively and promoting market stability

supply response to countercyclical payments and base acre updating under uncertainty an experimental study we design an experiment to simulate how people make agricultural production decisions under three policy scenarios each incorporating direct payments dps a price uncertainty without countercyclical payments ccps b price uncertainty with ccps and c price uncertainty ccps and uncertainty regarding base acreage updating results are the ccp program and perceived possibility of future base updating created incentives for subjects to invest more in program base crops despite payments being decoupled from current production decisions those choosing to reduce revenue risk by increasing plantings of base crops may face reduced incomes suggesting the efficiency of crop markets may be diminished

the incidence of agricultural policies abstract a general equilibrium model is used to analyze agricultural policy incidence in the presence of distortionary income taxation the incidence of lump sum transfers to farmers supply control through input retirement and production subsidies are considered partial equilibrium incidence calculations are shown to systematically overstate the benefits farmers receive from farm programs kaldor s compensation test is used to judge the relative efficiency inefficiency of alternative farm programs at the margin supply control through input retirement may dominate decoupled lump sum transfers if the tax system is very inefficient and subsidy payments are high

existence of a spatial equilibrium we prove the existence of a competitive equilibrium in a simple canonical model of spatial economics we emphasize the single difficulty introduced by the use of a continuum of agents to convexify the fundamental locational nonconvexity individual consumption bundles are not bounded above by the aggregate boundedness of initial resources

transaction costs and the present value puzzle of farmland prices 1 introduction farmland is by far the dominant asset in the u s agricultural sector s balance sheet accounting for about two thirds of the value of all farm assets usda various years the value of u s farmland was estimated at 593 billion on december 31 1994 or roughly 10 of total market capitalization for firms in the sp clark fulton and scott 1993 tegene and kuchler 1993 this is a puzzling result because the cdr pvm has been widely accepted and generally used for land appraisal purposes beyond this however there is surprisingly little consensus regarding the determinants of farmland prices pope et al 1979 robison and koenig 1992 stare 1995 a major reason for this lack of consensus may be the heterogeneity of the data sets used for empirical analysis different studies use different levels of aggregation different time periods and different land value and rent series hanson and myers 1995 for example use country level data whereas tegene and kuchler 1993 use regional data and just and miranowski 1993 use state level data hanson and myers 1995 use data from 1910 to 1990 shiha and chavas 1995 use data from 1949 to 1990 and brown and brown 1984 use data from 1968 to 1981 falk 1991 examines farmland values and gross cash rents whereas hanson and myers 1995 examine farm real estate values and residual returns to farm real estate another possible explanation for the lack of consensus about farmland pricing and the focus of the present study is the presence of market frictions our motivation for exploring the role that market frictions might play in determining farmland prices is both theoretical and empirical on the theoretical level market frictions drive a wedge between the price at which outsiders wish to buy land and that at which farmers wish to sell it the market price can be anywhere within this wedge and thus can easily deviate from its frictionless present value one can interpret this wedge as a band of inaction delta sup l delta supu inside which farmers neither buy nor sell land even in the face of changing expected returns the band is centered on the price that would prevail in the absence of transaction costs and its width is determined by the size of these costs on the empirical level a review of the literature reveals that the frictionless market assumption is not a realistic representation of how farmland is actually traded although the costs associated with trading many financial assets are small costs incurred in transferring ownership of farmland typically exceed 7 5 of the purchase price to explore the role of market frictions we use the pvm recently used by lence and miller 1999 which explicitly incorporates proportional transaction costs

the impact of decoupled payments on farm choices conceptual and methodological challenges abstract in this paper we review the methodological framework for analysing decoupled payments in models of agricultural production market and technological uncertainty farm efficiency credit constraints farm household choices involving extra agricultural decisions policy uncertainty and long run impact of decoupling on investment and land values are the relevant issues that should be pursued by methodological and empirical analysis future research should refine the analysis of decoupled payments mainly trying to provide results that can be useful for policy simulation to bridge the gap between analysis at the individual level and sector policy models

do house prices drive consumption growth the coincident cycles of house prices and consumption in the uk this paper uses a realistic structural lifecycle model of consumption and housing decisions to understand how data might distinguish different mechanisms that explain the correlation between house prices and consumption the model includes price and earnings shocks estimated from data the latter including aggregate and idiosyncratic components and incorporates realistic features of the uk mortgage market we simulate the model using more than 30 years of realized shocks and under counterfactual scenarios our results confirm the intuition of earlier studies house price shocks should have a larger effect on the consumption of older households and earnings shocks on young households

negotiating reductions in agricultural support implications of technology and factor mobility this paper highlights the joint significance of agricultural technology and factor mobility in determining the impact of changing support policies the impact of across the board reductions in farm support on output exports employment and land values will vary systematically across countries depending on their relative reliance on export output and input subsidies furthermore considerable maneuvering room exists even after an aggregate reduction in support is agreed upon for example the aggregate u s producer subsidy equivalent could be reduced while leaving unchanged the demand for farm labor by shifting the mix of remaining subsidies toward inputs which are complementary

stochastic economic assessment of afforestation on marginal land in irrigated farming system we analysed the economic viability of afforestation on marginal irrigated croplands in irrigated drylands of uzbekistan the revenues derived from a combination of diversified agricultural production carbon sequestration nitrogen fixation and avoided irrigation water use were analysed considering uncertainty associated with on farm activities such as crop production and short rotation forestry at the per hectare scale variability in land use revenues would necessitate substantial increases in carbon prices for afforestation to be as profitable as crop cultivation on marginal lands assuming an abundant irrigation water supply in contrast at the farm scale the analysis results revealed that afforestation can be attractive financially even without carbon payments due to farm production constraints variable land use returns and the benefits of land use diversification increased carbon prices would promote carbon sequestration by motivating farmers to plant high biomass producing tree species but would have an ecosystem service trade off by reducing the appeal of nitrogen fixing species that are essential for nitrogen self sufficiency of afforestation efforts given the modest irrigation needs of afforestation efforts compared to the cultivation of annual crops tree plantations could become a primary income source for farms during periods of drought irrigation water saved from replacing crops with trees on marginal farmland would enhance the cultivation of commercial crops on productive lands thus increasing farm income