computer use and earnings in britain this paper estimates various models of the effect of computer use on earnings using recent ncds data the cross section estimates are large and significant while the standard fixed effects estimates are small or insignificant the panel estimates change considerably once we allow the coefficients to differ across individuals conditional on assumptions about when individuals use computers conventional panel estimates may not identify the crucial parameters and alternative methods are needed we conclude that there was a substantial premium associated with computer use for some individuals in the uk

corporate taxation and capital accumulation evidence from sectoral panel data for 14 oecd countries abstract we present new empirical evidence that sector level capital output ratios are strongly influenced by corporate tax incentives as summarised by the tax component of a standard user cost of capital measure we use sectoral panel data for the usa japan australia and eleven eu countries over the period 1982 2007 our panel combines internationally consistent data on capital stocks value added and relative prices from the eu klems database with corporate tax measures from the oxford university centre for business taxation our results for equipment investment are particularly robust and strikingly consistent with the basic economic theory of corporate investment

the long run relationship between productivity and capital abstract using panel cointegration techniques we show a cointegrating relationship exists between capital and productivity in 446 manufacturing industries panel dols and fmols estimates reveal that innovations to productivity increase and granger cause capital movements

issues in the measurement of economic depreciation introductory remarks i introduction most capital goods are used up in the process of producing output machine tools wear out trucks break down electronic equipment becomes obsolete when an asset reaches a point at which it is no longer economical to repair and maintain it is withdrawn from service as the physical deterioration and retirement of assets cause the productive capacity to decline to zero a parallel loss in asset financial value occurs this depreciation of value is a cost that must be subtracted from gross revenue in order to determine the income accruing to the asset it is also the amount that must be added to the balance sheet in order to keep wealth intact these are relatively straightforward distinctions that are routinely used in various fields of economics in studies of economic growth particularly in the new growth theory with its focus on the role of capital formation in environmental economics with its concerns about sustainable growth in production theory with the study of capital formation in industrial organization with issues involving the rate of return to capital and in public finance with its interest in the taxation of income from capital it is therefore perplexing that these important distinctions have been the source of much confusion and error it is common for example to see deterioration called depreciation though the former is a quantity concept and the latter refers to financial value other confusions have led to the inference that there are two logically separate concepts of capital one appropriate for wealth accounting and the other for the study of productivity and growth part of the problem lies with the historic confusion and controversy within capital theory itself the controversy is manifest in academic debates over the role of capital in economic growth viz the cambridge controversies in capital theory a major source of difficulty arises from the fact that by definition a capital good yields its services over the course of several years and the fact that capital goods are generally owner utilized this leads to a fundamental difference vis a vis non capital inputs like labor and materials that complicates the measurement problem enormously and necessitates the use of imputational methods and approximations to get at the underlying economic prices and quantities unlike labor which is purely an input capital goods are both inputs and outputs of the production process and this fact adds yet another dimension to the analysis in the spring of 1992 the current state of research on capital wealth and depreciation was the subject of a one day conference on research in income and wealth symposium held in washington d c at the board of governors of the federal reserve under the auspices of the national bureau of economic research this symposium ranged over many of the issues in the measurement of economic depreciation and presented both an appraisal of past research and an important set of new results the five following papers of this issue of economic inquiry are devoted to the proceedings of the workshop in the hope that further research interest will be stimulated in this crucial and under researched branch of economics ii issues in depreciation analysis given the history of confusion surrounding the concept of economic depreciation it would seem useful to precede the conference papers with a few introductory remarks about the problem of depreciation we will start with the simple example of a small manufacturing company that owns three machines one that was purchased at the beginning of the current year 1996 at a cost of 100 000 one purchased five years ago at a cost of 80 000 and one purchased twenty years ago for 40 000 the three machines are intended to perform the same set of tasks and are essentially the same except for wear and tear due to age and to design improvements that have occurred over time

steam as a general purpose technology a growth accounting perspective the contribution of steam to british economic growth in the nineteenth century is estimated using growth accounting methods similar to those recently employed to examine the role of ict the results indicate that steam contributed little to growth before 1830 and had its peak impact about a hundred years after watt s famous invention only with the advent of highpressure steam after 1850 did the technology realise its potential compared with ict steam s impact on the annual rate of growth was modest it is unlikely that these conclusions are vulnerable to quantification of hitherto unmeasured tfp spillovers

investment specific technological changes the source of long run tfp fluctuations abstract technological innovations originating in the capital producing sector may spillover to the rest of the economy and enhance aggregate tfp in the long run this paper assesses the quantitative importance of investment specific technological changes in long run movements in aggregate tfp to this end we construct a two sector business cycle model where an ist diffusion process influences long run movements in aggregate tfp via spillover we then establish the linkage between the primitive shocks of the model and two shocks that can be identified from a var approach one shock accounting for the long run movement in aggregate tfp and the other accounting for the long run movement in the inverse of the relative price of investment we show analytically that the correlation of these two long run shocks can be fruitful in distinguishing the quantitative importance of ist innovations in long run movements in aggregate tfp using post war u s data we find that these two long run shocks identified by the mfev approach are almost perfectly collinear moreover these two shocks can explain a significant and surprisingly similar fraction of the business cycle fluctuations in other important macro variables our findings suggest that embodied technological changes are an important driver of long run movements in aggregate tfp

capital accumulation sectoral heterogeneity and the taylor principle abstract in the presence of capital accumulation the taylor principle may not be sufficient for determinacy under reasonable parameter values in this paper i consider a two sector extension of the models used in the existing literature i show that what matters for whether the taylor principle is sufficient is the price stickiness of investment goods price stickiness of consumer goods on the other hand matters very little the taylor principle is sufficient i find unless there is considerable price stickiness in the investment goods sector

oil supply shocks and international policy coordination abstract this paper examines the value of international cooperation in an oil supply disruption the perspective is that of oil importing countries since the oil market is integrated internationally the actions of one have spillover effects on the others we focus on buffer stock policies with each player maximizing the present value of national income less the cost of operating the stockpile program we contrast cooperative and cournot nash solutions to the dynamic game paying special attention to the asymmetries between small and large countries the principal results are reviewed to assess the viability of current international agreements

productivity growth in goods and services across the heterogeneous states of america i introduction the study of income and productivity convergence and structural transformation are central and recurring themes in economic growth research the u s states have been a fertile testing ground for many intellectual advances in these areas the closed economy assumptions of the underlying models notwithstanding the states offer compensating advantages such as being subject to the same macroeconomic policy while simultaneously exhibiting considerable heterogeneity along many dimensions of interest to growth researchers demographics composition of output quality of workforce tax policy natural resource endowments geography etc at the same time knowledge on multifactor productivity mfp growth which is central to many growth models remains sparse for u s states this is mainly due to lack of data on capital accumulation beyond the manufacturing sector this is unfortunate as an emerging body of work has begun to draw attention to the fact that the convergence of state level incomes has slowed down over the past two to three decades in the absence of adequate data at the state level it becomes difficult to further analyze this problem within a multisectoral framework in this study we seek to rectify this shortcoming by constructing and analyzing productivity growth for the broadly defined privately produced goods and service sectors at the state level and undertake both growth accounting and convergence analysis for the period 1980 2007 1 our primary innovation is the use of the dual growth accounting method which relies on factor prices rather than factor stocks to construct mfp growth to get a sense of the underlying heterogeneity in sectoral labor productivity growth consider the convergence plots displayed in figure 1 in figure 1 a we plot labor productivity growth in the nonfarm nonmining private sector between 1980 and 2007 against initial labor productivity there is some evidence of absolute convergence although weak in figures ib and 1c we repeat similar plots but now for the goods sector and for the private service sector separately here we see markedly different patterns while convergence in the goods sector is apparent for services it is quite the opposite moreover if one inspects the values on the vertical axes one can also infer large differences across states this is particularly true for goods where the difference between oregon or and montana mt was almost 7 annually as a result even though montana had slightly higher labor productivity in 1980 by 2007 oregon s productivity was at least five times higher even for the service sector where the range is much smaller the difference between connecticut ct and michigan mi was almost 2 annually as a result though both states began with almost similar values connecticut s labor productivity in services was 60 higher than michigan s by 2007 clearly these are large underlying regional differences these very different patterns motivate some of the questions that we try to answer in this study using our constructed series of mfp growth and its constituent variables we examine the sources of variations in labor productivity growth first we conduct an in depth growth accounting exercise to explore the relative importance of mfp growth versus factor accumulation for the two broad sectors across u s states this allows us to undertake traditional growth accounting exercises and also examine the sources of variations across states as the dual accounting approach relies on the construction of real wage growth and real user cost growth we also investigate the sectoral patterns for these two variables second we conduct convergence analysis at the sectoral level for labor productivity growth mfp growth as well as factor price growth we show that while the goods sector shows convergence both absolute and conditional on initial human capital we see no such evidence for the service sector

inventory behaviour and market power an empirical investigation abstract this paper examines the empirical relation between the market power of a firm and the level and variability of its inventories we suggest that firms with greater market power hold more inventories and that their inventories are more volatile these hypotheses were tested on a large sample of industrial firms using two different measures of market power and applying a number of estimation techniques the results strongly support our hypotheses

total factor productivity and the measurement of technological change tfp is interpreted in the literature in different mutually contradictory ways changes in tfp are shown to measure not technological change only the super normal returns to investing in such change returns that exceed the full opportunity cost of the activity thus in the limit technological change can proceed with unchanged tfp measuring the effects of technological change instead requires counterfactual estimates reasons why changes in tfp are imperfect measures of super normal returns are also studied reasons connected with the timing of output responses the treatment of r d in the national accounts the omission of resource inputs and two types of aggregation la productivite totale des facteurs et la mesure du changement technologique la productivite totale des facteurs ptf est interpretee dans la litterature de manieres differentes et mutuellement contradictoires on montre que les changements dans la ptf ne mesurent pas le changement technologique mais seulement les rendements supra normaux sur les investissements dans de tels changements des rendements qui depassent le plein cout d opportunite de cette activite donc a la limite le changement technologique peut proceder sans que la ptf change mesurer les effets du changement technique reclame des evaluations d hypotheses de rechange les raisons pour lesquelles les changements dans la ptf sont des mesures imparfaites des rendements supra normaux sont aussi etudiees raisons connectees avec la reponse des niveaux de production le traitement de la r d dans les comptes nationaux l omission des intrants de ressources et deux types d agregation

strategic investment in an industry with a competitive product market this paper explores the scope for and effect of strategic behaviour by firms in an industry where the product market is competitive in the usual sense that firms are effectively price takers traditionally the literature on imperfect competition has concentrated on the product market employing the notions of the cournot equilibrium or monopolistic competition the model presented shows that even if firms are unable to obtain any such market power in the product market they can still influence the market outcome through investment behaviour which determines their actual cost structure the ability of firms to thus influence the market outcome is directly related to their market share this is a result which is not only of theoretical interest it is sometimes argued that for some industries concentration does not lead to welfare loss because the mnarket may be competitive even with only a few producers see fisher et al i983 pp 24 25 for the u s computer industry and i b m the message of this paper is that even in such competitive industries concentration still matters since firms can still behave strategically with factors such as investment and r d this paper considers a model of strategic investment in the context of a two stage dynamic equilibrium with two factors of production capital and labour in the first strategic stage firms choose their capital stocks in the second market stage the capital stocks are fixed and a competitive equilibrium occurs the two stages of the model can be seen as capturing the distinction between the long run and the short run the equilibrium rests on the reasonable assumption that the capital decisions of firms are irreversible in the market stage we are thus implicitly assuming that there is no rental market for capital in the competitive market stage the price equates supply with demand in essence the choice of the capital stock in the strategic stage determines the supply function that the firm has in the market stage thus firms are able to influence the market equilibrium to their favour through their choice of capital stock the resultant equilibrium can be interpreted as a nash equilibrium in supply functions see for example grossman i 98 i dixon i 984a in evaluating the welfare consequences of the model it is necessary to realise that the cost structure of the firm is endogenous the choice of capital

the impact of high tech capital on productivity evidence from australia i introduction the bulk of the empirical research on the relationship between high tech capital investment and productivity has been based on data for the united states given the relatively large size of the high tech capital sector in the u s economy it is likely that the united states is a special case most economies resemble australia s in being net importers of high tech capital not producing high tech capital was often cited as a weakness in these economies relative to the united states however since the end of the late 1990s tech boom there has been a reappraisal of whether the production or the use of high tech capital is most beneficial hence to shed light on this debate the main purpose of this paper is to empirically examine the relationship between high tech capital use and the multifactor productivity mfp of 10 industries in the australian market sector using annual data for 1966 2002 alternative specifications of production functions are considered and estimated alternative measures of high tech capital are included with combinations of computers software and electronics capital in the first production function high tech capital is allowed to be more or less productive than other capital to determine whether there is a relationship between high tech capital and mfp it is also possible to test whether there are excess returns to high tech capital for robustness testing purposes a second production function is specified with high tech capital as a separate input into production other potential sources of mfp growth such as public capital research and development stocks and microeconomic reform are also included in the production functions we find evidence of a positive relationship between high tech capital and mfp in the market sector there is less evidence however of excess returns to high tech capital which suggests that current investment levels are not inadequate the results by industry suggest that the benefits of investing in high tech capital are not distributed evenly across the economy with only some industries experiencing a positive relationship between high tech capital and mfp the structure of this article is as follows in section ii the theoretical contribution of high tech capital to mfp and the evidence to date is reviewed in section iii the methodology is outlined in section iv data sources and trends are described in section v the results are presented and interpreted and section vi concludes ii the impact of high tech capital on output and productivity the theory and evidence the impact of investment in high tech capital has been the subject of debate between new economy sceptics and optimists for several years it is widely accepted that mfp has increased substantially in u s high tech producing industries in which the rate of technological change has been phenomenal over the past 40 years several publications have found a quantifiable contribution by computer producing industries to u s output growth 1 however australia is not generally regarded as a producer of computers data from the organisation for economic co operation and development oecd 1998 indicate that the high tech share of australian manufacturing value added was 4 5 in 1995 compared to 15 8 in the united states therefore the substantial u s economy wide mfp improvements specifically associated with its computer producing industry are unlikely to be replicated in the australian economy over the past 30 years there has been rapid accumulation of high tech capital in many countries australia was the third most intensive user of high tech capital in the oecd in 1995 behind the united states and new zealand simon and wardrop 2002 find that this rapid accumulation of high tech capital may have substantially contributed to australia s economic growth during the 1990s this accumulation has been driven by technological change in high tech producing industries lowering the price of high tech capital

capital skill complementarity sectoral labor productivity and structural transformation abstract in the postwar u s economy labor productivity has been growing faster in the goods sector versus the service sector this paper argues that this sectoral labor productivity growth gap can largely be explained by the fact that capital intensity also increases faster in the goods sector i build a two sector neoclassical growth model in which capital substitutes low skilled labor but complements high skilled labor and the goods sector is more intensive in low skilled labor relative to the service sector as observed in the data as capital becomes more abundant relative to labor along economic growth low skilled labor is substituted by capital leading to faster growth of capital intensity and hence labor productivity in the goods sector using a calibrated model i find that two thirds of the sectoral labor productivity growth gap can be explained by capital accumulation and its interaction with capital skill complementarity

horizons of understanding a review of ray fair s estimating how the macroeconomy works ray fair s estimating how the macroeconomy works is the latest in a series of books by fair that build estimate and apply his macroeconometric model to study the u s economy in this book fair updates the model to incorporate the most recent data and uses it to analyze several important empirical questions such as whether the u s economy moved into a new age of high productivity in the last half of the 1990s and the dynamics of prices output and unemployment this review places his work in the context of the historical evolution of aggregate econometric models compares it with the current developments in the estimation of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models and discusses some salient aspects of fair s contributions

technology shocks and job flows we consider a version of the solow growth model where technological progress can be investment specific or investment neutral the labour market is subject to search frictions and the existing productive units may fail to adopt the most recent technological advances technological progress can lead to the destruction of technologically obsolete jobs and cause unemployment we calibrate the model to replicate the high persistence that characterizes the dynamics of firms neutral technology and the frequency of firms capital adjustment we find that neutral technological advances increase job destruction and job reallocation and reduce aggregate employment investment specific technological advances reduce job destruction have mild effects on job creation and are expansionary hence neutral technological progress prompts schumpeterian creative destruction while investment specific technological progress operates essentially as in the standard neoclassical growth model using structural var models we provide support to the key dynamic implications of the model copyright 2007 wiley blackwell

on the distinction between structure and conduct adjustment costs concentration and price behavior the effect of concentration on the speed of price adjustment is studied and shown to be ambiguous when adjustment costs are convex the result relies on making a distinction between the structure of an industry and the conduct of firms within it copyright 1989 by blackwell publishing ltd

strategic investment and conjectural variations abstract this paper analyzes investment decisions under the alternative assumptions of competitive collusive open loop non cooperative and feedback non cooperative behavior steady state capital stocks prices and outputs are obtained and compared the paper shows that one of the linear feedback equilibrium decision rule coefficients is a dynamic version of a contemporaneous conjectural variation the same decision rule coefficients are shown to imply a particular value for the contemporaneous conjecture the implied conjecture embodies subgame perfection and approaches the competitive value as the number of firms in the industry increases

labor and investment frictions in a real business cycle model abstract this paper develops a prototype real business cycle model in which labor and investment frictions may compete directly with technology shocks in accounting for fluctuations in the postwar us economy using ireland s 2004a a method for taking models to the data journal of economic dynamics and control 28 1205 1226 methodology we establish that both types of friction are quantitatively important technology shocks still explain a substantial fraction of the fluctuations in aggregate output as the baseline real business cycle model predicts formal hypothesis tests suggest that changes in the recurrence of shocks frictions and structural parameters all play a role in accounting for the shift in the time series properties of the data between the periods before and after 1980

monopolistic competition as a foundation for keynesian macroeconomic models a general equilibrium macroeconomic model based on monopolistic competition is presented the model exhibits a traditional multiplier in the short run but due to free entry the multiplier disappears in the long run by construction all agents are fully rational the keynesian results are a consequence of the assumption of monopolistic competition which creates a divergence between optimal private behavior and optimal social behavior

labor market volatility in the search and matching model the role of investment specific technology shocks abstract shocks to investment specific technology have been identified as a main source of u s aggregate output volatility in this paper we present a model with frictions in the labor market and explore the contribution of these shocks to the volatility of labor market variables namely unemployment vacancies tightness and the job finding rate thus our paper contributes to a recent body of literature assessing the ability of the search and matching model to account for the large volatility observed in labor market variables to this aim we solve a neoclassical economy with search and matching where neutral and investment specific technologies are subject to shocks the three key features of our model economy are i firms are large in the sense that they employ many workers ii adjusting capital and labor is costly iii wages are the outcome of an intra firm nash bargaining problem between the firm and its workers in our calibrated economy we find that shocks to investment specific technology explain 40 of the observed volatility in u s labor productivity moreover these shocks generate relative volatilities in vacancies and the workers job finding rate which match those observed in u s data relative volatilities in unemployment and labor market tightness are 55 and 75 of their empirical values respectively

ict capital and services complementarities the italian evidence this article investigates whether information and communication technologies icts hardware and services play a complementary role in boosting economic growth the main argument is that investments in ict fixed capital are a necessary but not sufficient condition leading to productivity gains above all in late adopter countries their effective implementation indeed requires on the one hand a changing economic structure characterized by a growing weight of service sectors and on the other hand complementary investments in ict services directed to ease the integration of the new technologies within firms boundaries the analysis is conducted on a late industrialized country like italy and shows that in lagging countries the weak impact of ict adoption is the result of three converging forces relatively high share of manufacturing sectors low adoption levels of icts in traditional manufacturing sectors inadequate investments in ict services

the coevolution of the real and financial sectors in the growth process the role of debt and equity changes over time and with the level of development what are these changes and why should they systematically occur across different countries and time periods this article characterizes financial innovation as a dynamic process that both influences and is influenced by the development of the real sector it focuses on the emergence and development of equity markets using a model that allows for growth and for capital accumulation that is financed externally through a combination of debt and equity as an economy develops the aggregate ratio of debt to equity will generally fall yet debt and equity remain complementary sources for the financing of capital investments the results suggest how various government policy actions might affect capital accumulation and equity market activity

comparing dsge var forecasting models how big are the differences abstract i generate priors for a vector autoregression var from a standard real business cycle rbc model an rbc model with capital adjustment costs and habit formation and a sticky price model with an unaccommodating monetary authority the response of hours worked to a tfp shock differs sharply across these models i compare the accuracy of forecasts made from each of the resulting dynamic stochastic general equilibrium vector autoregression dsge var models despite having different structural characteristics the dsge vars are comparable in terms of forecasting performance as in previous work dsge vars compare favorably with atheoretical vars

on vickrey type auction procedures abstract although a vickrey type auction provides a dominant strategy for every buyer bidder even in a multi item setting a seller can manipulate the auction this paper attempts to show that the manipulation can be avoided by suitably modifying the initial price vector

the augmented solow model and the productivity slowdown abstract in an insightful and influential paper mankiw et al 1992 quarterly journal of economics 107 407 437 have suggested that an augmented solow growth model can account for 80 of the variation in output per capita across countries due to different steady state growth paths that result from differences in saving rates education and population growth this paper carries their analysis one step further and asks whether changes in the growth rate between the 1960s and the 1980s can also be explained by this framework our results provide further support for several of mankiw et al s key conclusions investment in physical capital population growth and the initial levels of output seem to matter a great deal however investment in human capital has no ability to account for changes in growth rates over time we conclude that investment in physical capital seems to be quite important for economic growth though the reasons for this importance may not be fully captured by the augmented solow growth model

dynamic oligopoly in the rice export market a linear quadratic dynamic oligopoly model is used to estimate the competitiveness of the rice export market the model nests various market structures using either open loop or feedback strategies the estimated feedback model implies a less competitive market structure than the estimated open loop model the rice export market is oligopolistic but it is closer to competitive than collusive copyright 1989 by mit press

capital reallocation and liquidity this paper studies the cyclical properties of capital reallocation and the frictions which inhibit such reallocation we show that the amount of capital reallocation and the benefits to reallocation vary at the business cycle frequency the amount of capital reallocation is procyclical in contrast the benefits to capital reallocation appear countercyclical we measure the amount of reallocation using data on flows of capital across firms and the benefits to capital reallocation using several measures of the cross sectional dispersion of the productivity of capital we then study a calibrated model of an economy where capital reallocation is costly and impute the cost of reallocation which is consistent with the amount of and benefits to reallocation in the data we find that the cost of reallocation needs to be substantially countercyclical to be consistent with the observed joint cyclical properties of reallocation and productivity dispersion the cyclical variation in this cost is interpreted as variation in the liquidity of capital broadly defined since physical costs are unlikely to vary countercyclically

ict and productivity growth in the united kingdom this paper develops new estimates of investment in and output of information and communication technology ict these new estimates imply that gdp growth has been significantly understated particularly since 1994 a growth accounting approach is employed to measure the contribution of ict to the growth of both aggregate output and aggregate input on both counts the contribution of ict has been rising over time from 1989 to 1998 ict output contributed a fifth of overall gdp growth since 1989 55 per cent of capital deepening the growth of capital per hour worked has been contributed by ict capital since 1994 this proportion has risen to 90 per cent ict capital deepening accounts for 25 per cent of the growth of labour productivity over 1989 98 and 48 per cent over 1994 8 but even when output growth is adjusted for the new ict estimates both labour productivity and tfp growth are still found to slow down after 1994

investment specific technological change and growth accounting greenwood et al 1997 long run implications of investment specific technological change american economic review 87 3 342 362 and 2000 the role of investment specific technological change in the business cycle european economic review 44 91 115 and hercowitz 1998 the embodiment controversy a review essay journal of monetary economics 41 217 224 have claimed that the jorgenson form of growth accounting is conceptually flawed and severely understates the importance of technological progress embodied in new capital goods for explaining growth to the contrary this paper shows that in its technology aspects their model is a special case of the jorgensonian growth accounting model what they call investment specific technological change is shown to be closely related to the more familiar concept of total factor productivity tfp growth statements about the one can be translated into statements about the other empirically differences between their conclusions and those of growth accounting studies about the extent to which embodiment explains us economic growth are found to relate more to data than to methodology

investment and market power abstract this paper argues that the degree of market power within an industry is an important determinant of interindustry differences in investment behavior a neoclassical investment model is analyzed to show that market power is positively associated with capital stock flexibility the intuition for the result is that firms adjust their stocks and investment plans quickly in response to new conditions so as to capture the rents asssociated with their market power

financial integration and growth in a risky world abstract we revisit the debate on the benefits of financial integration in a two country neoclassical growth model with aggregate uncertainty the framework accounts simultaneously for gains from a more efficient capital allocation and gains from risk sharing together with their interaction global numerical methods allow for meaningful welfare comparisons gains from integration are quantitatively small even for riskier and capital scarce emerging economies these countries import capital for efficiency reasons before exporting it for self insurance leading to capital flows and growth reversals along the transition this opens the door to richer empirical implications than previously considered in the literature

investment shocks and business cycles abstract the origins of business cycles are still controversial among macroeconomists this paper contributes to this debate by studying the driving forces of fluctuations in an estimated new neoclassical synthesis model of the u s economy in this model most of the variability of output and hours at business cycle frequencies is due to shocks to the marginal efficiency of investment imperfect competition and to a lesser extent technological frictions are the key to their transmission although labor supply shocks explain a large fraction of the fluctuations in hours at very low frequencies they are irrelevant over the business cycle this finding is important because the microfoundations of these disturbances are widely regarded as unappealing

the economic crisis from a neoclassical perspective abstract this paper assesses the 2007 2009 recession using neoclassical business cycle theory i find that the 2007 2009 u s recession differs substantially from other postwar u s recessions and also from the 2008 recession in other countries in that lower labor input accounts for virtually all of the decline in income and output in the united states while lower productivity accounts for much of other u s recessions and the 2007 2009 recession in other countries i also find that existing classes of models including financial market imperfections models do not explain the u s recession this is because the 2007 2009 recession is almost exclusively related to what appear to be labor market distortions that drive a wedge between the marginal product of labor and the marginal rate of substitution between consumption and leisure a topic about which current classes of financial imperfection models are largely silent i discuss future avenues for developing this class of models and i consider alterna

is physical investment the key to china s growth miracle i introduction unprecedented high rates of economic growth in china over the past decades have stimulated a wide interest among researchers and policymakers in establishing whether rapid physical capital accumulation is the main driving force behind such outstanding growth performance and whether it suffices to sustain china s rapid economic growth in the next decades by exploiting the different implications that the relation between investment and growth has according to the neoclassical paradigm pioneered by solow 1956 and cass 1965 and endogenous growth models of the ak type this paper will attempt to test the empirical validity of the ak model for the chinese economy the main difference between the ak model and the solow model is that the former allows for the existence of constant returns to a sufficiently broad definition of capital which in turn enables investment to have a long run impact on growth in contrast under the neoclassical paradigm diminishing returns to reproducible capital leads inevitably to only temporary growth effects along the transitional path and long run growth depends on exogenous technological progress constant returns to reproducible capital characterizing linear accumulation driven models may stem from different sources like 1 positive externalities as in the models of frankel 1962 lucas 1988 and romer 1986 2 bounding the marginal product of reproducible factors away from zero jones and manuelli 1990 or 3 the existence of constant returns to all accumulable factors characterizing the different sectors of the economy barro 1990 rebelo 1991 according to standard linear accumulation driven models steady state output growth directly depends on the total investment rate in physical capital hence the dynamics of output growth should behave similarly to the dynamics of the investment rate as noted by jones 1995a a hallmark of the endogenous growth literature implies that any large permanent change in total investment should translate into a permanent change in long run growth in the same direction jones 1995a constitutes the first attempt at testing the ak type growth models using a time series framework his sample includes 15 organization for economic co operation and development oecd countries with data spanning over the period 1950 1988 he shows that the investment share in producer durables and to a lesser extent the total investment rate presents an upward deterministic trend and is generally found nonstationary when augmented dickey fuller adf 1979 tests are applied in contrast rates of economic growth remain fairly stable jones then claims that the fact that output growth rates exhibit no large permanent movements imposes a strong and testable restriction on endogenous growth models if an endogenous growth model predicts that permanent movements in some variable x have permanent effects on growth then either a x must exhibit no large persistent movements or b some other variable or variables must also have persistent effects on growth that offset the movements of x in a way that is determined by the endogenous growth model jones 1995a 502 despite the considerable effort using this framework to try to test the empirical validity of ak type growth models for the oecd countries jones 1995a li 2002 romero avila 2006 no work has been conducted along these lines for the chinese economy this is surprising because this issue should be particularly important for a country like china which is expected to become the leading economy in the coming decades with a population more than 1 3 billion which is more than four times the population of the united states this paper tries to fill this gap in the literature by applying jones test to the chinese economy over the past five decades the chinese economy has shown spectacular growth performance with an average annual growth rate of real per capita gross domestic product gdp equal to 6

keynesian impulses versus solow residuals identifying sources of business cycle fluctuations we employ a neoclassical business cycle model that builds on the greenwood hercowitz and huffman 1988 variable utilization framework to study two sources of business cycl e fluctuations marginal efficiency of investment shocks and total factor productivity shocks the parameters of the model are estimated using a bayesian procedure that accommodates prior uncertainty about their magnitudes from these estimates posterior distributions of the two shocks are obtained the postwar u s experience suggests that both shocks are important in understanding fluctuations but that total factor productivity shocks are primarily responsible for beginning and ending recessions

quantifying the impact of ict capital on output growth a heterogeneous dynamic panel approach using industry data for the united states and the united kingdom we provide new evidence on the impact of information and communications technology ict capital on real output growth the traditional industry panel data analysis fails to find a positive contribution we argue that this is due to heterogeneity across industries particularly in the time dimension pooling the data for the two countries and using a dynamic panel data estimation method yield a positive and significant effect of ict on output growth individual country estimates suggest a strong impact in the united states while results are less conclusive in the united kingdom

anticipation effects of technological progress on capital accumulation a vintage capital approach abstract due to embodied technological progress new generations of capital goods are more productive therefore in order to study the effects of technological progress a model must be analyzed in which different generations of capital goods can be distinguished we determine in what way the firm adjusts current investments to predictions of technological progress in the presence of market power we show that a negative anticipation effect occurs i e current investments in recent generations of capital goods decline when faster technological progress will take place in the future because then it becomes more attractive to wait for new generations of capital goods in case that only investments in new machines are possible actually a whole wave of anticipation phases arises

learning adaptive expectations and technology shocks this study explores the macroeconomic implications of adaptive expectations in a standard growth model we show that the self confirming equilibrium under adaptive expectations is the same as the steady state rational expectations equilibrium for all admissible parameter values but that dynamics around the steady state are substantially different between the two equilibria the differences are driven mainly by the dampened wealth effect and the strengthened intertemporal substitution effect not by escapes emphasised by williams 2003 consequently adaptive expectations can be an important source of frictions that amplify and propagate technology shocks and seem promising for generating plausible labour market dynamics

what determines productivity performance of telecommunications services industry a cross country analysis this article investigates the key factors that determine the productivity performance of telecommunications services industry a simple theoretical model is used to illustrate that the total factor productivity tfp growth is attributable to the effects of scale economies market competition and technical change we then examine empirically the effect of various factors on the tfp growth in the industry using panel data in 12 organization for economic co operation and development oecd countries for the period 1983 through 2003 the empirical results are consistent with the theoretical prediction a new finding in this article is that higher machinery and equipment m e capital intensity and human capital contribute to higher tfp growth in the telecommunications services industry the decomposition analysis also suggests that technical change induced by changes in m e capital intensity and human capital are important sources of productivity performance in the industry across the oecd countries contrib

does the new economy measure up to the great inventions of the past abstract during the four years 1995 99 u s productivity growth experienced a strong revival and achieved growth rates exceeding that of the golden age of 1913 72 accordingly many observers have declared the new economy to be an industrial revolution even more important than the second industrial revolution of 1860 1900 which made the golden age of productivity growth possible this paper dissects the recent productivity revival subtracts out a cyclical component and concludes that there is no revival of the productivity growth trend in the 88 percent of the private economy lying outside of the durables manufacturing sector the paper explains this surprising finding by pointing to limitations in computers and the internet in comparison with the great inventions of the past

monopolistic competition and the q theory of investment abstract in this paper we analyse the implications for q models of investment of replacing the assumption of perfect competition in the output market with the assumption of monopolistic competition the structural investment equation that can be derived in this case has a richer dynamic structure than the conventional one and it contains in addition to present and future q output as an explanatory variable in the applied section we discuss the extent to which monopolistic competition helps in providing a remedy for the empirical weaknesses of q models the estimates are obtained using aggregate data for u k industrial and commercial companies for the period 1951 1979

can natural disasters have positive consequences investigating the role of embodied technical change it has been suggested that disasters might have positive economic consequences through the accelerated replacement of capital this possibility is referred to as the productivity effect this effect is investigated using a model with embodied technical change in this framework disasters can influence the production level but cannot influence the growth rate in the same way than the saving ratio in a solow like model depending on reconstruction quality indeed accounting for embodied technical change can either decrease or increase disaster costs but is never able to turn disasters into positive events moreover a better but slower reconstruction amplifies the short term consequences of disasters but pays off over the long term regardless the productivity effect cannot prevent the existence of a bifurcation when disaster damages exceed the reconstruction capacity potentially leading to poverty traps c 2008 elsevier b v all rights reserved

new evidence on the retirement and depreciation of machine tools i introduction in the late 1970s and early 1980s charles hulten and frank wykoff 1979 1981a 1981b undertook a major effort to estimate economic depreciation for the u s capital stock their pioneering work which analyzed prices for many used assets became the primary reference for estimates of economic depreciation however since then research on depreciation has been limited despite the need to examine the robustness of hulten and wykoff s results and to cover assets omitted from their studies in addition little work has been done to estimate retirement distributions which also play an important role in the construction of capital stocks this paper provides new evidence on the depreciation and retirement patterns of machine tools a grouping that includes many types of equipment that cut or form metal the data were collected from a survey of dealers belonging to the machinery dealers national association these dealers provided information on the prices of used machine tools from their own sales records they also estimated certain facets of the retirement distribution for machine tools including the average service life the direction of change in the average life since the mid 1970s and the ages by which 25 percent and 75 percent of an investment cohort are retired machine tools can be divided into two broad groups the first consists of the conventional machines that require manual control from an operator although the design and safety of these conventional machines has improved over the years the pace of technical progress has been slow the second group consists of numerically controlled machines which are more highly automated than their conventional counterparts 1 american manufacturers began to install numerically controlled machines in large numbers during the 1970s and these machines have continued to replace conventional if machines on the factory floor however at the time of my survey conventional machines still represented the bulk of machine tools operating in the united states and the estimates of depreciation and retirement in this paper refer strictly to conventional machines the paper is organized as follows section ii traces the adoption of numerically controlled machines by u s industry and then models how this phenomenon would have affected the depreciation and retirement patterns of conventional machine tools section iii briefly describes the data set section iv analyzes the information on retirement patterns provided by the dealers while section v presents the estimates of economic depreciation section vi summarizes my findings and suggests avenues for further research ii adoption of numerically controlled machines evidence and implications at roughly five year intervals since the 1920s american machinist magazine has conducted an in depth inventory of the stock of machine tools used by american manufacturers for a detailed breakdown of machine types the inventory provides information on the number of machines in use and the age distribution of this stock table i uses the american machinist surveys to characterize the adoption of numerically controlled machines in the united states since the mid 1970s as shown on the first line the share of numerically controlled machines in the total machine tool stock rose from 1 8 percent in 1976 78 to 9 2 percent in 1989 this five fold increase in the share of numerically controlled machines in the existing stock implies a considerably higher share of these machines in new investment indeed as shown in the right hand columns of the table numerically controlled machines represented 17 1 percent and 25 2 percent of all machine tools acquired during 1979 83 and 1985 89 respectively 2 thus numerically controlled machines have become a significant part of total u s investment in machine tools table i also shows that the adoption of numerically controlled machines has varied widely across machine categories

the strategy structure of two sided matching markets we study two sided markets in which agents are buyers and sellers or firms and workers or men and women the agents are to form partnerships which provide them with satisfaction and at the same time make monetary transfers e g salaries or dowries the core of this market game is shown to have a particularly nice structure so that precise answers can be given to questions concerning comparative statics and manipulability the idea of using walrasian equilibrium as a mechanism for making allocations with desirable properties of fairness and efficiency has been studied extensively the scheme involves having agents specify their supply and demand functions the competitive equilibria are then calculated and allocations are made accordingly in general this procedure may run into two difficulties first nonuniqueness if there are several equilibria there may be no fair way to decide which one should be implemented and second manipulability if there is only one equilibrium an informed agent may be able to influence it by suitably falsifying his demand data however as we will show here using the walrasian mechanism does work remarkably well for a certain class of important markets these are the matching markets of our title and they include markets for single items like houses where it is assumed that traders do not wish to acquire more than one item they also include labor markets in which it is desired to match workers with jobs at suitable salaries academic markets in which students are to be assigned to educational institutions marriage markets where men and women are matched through negotiating of dowries it turns out that in these markets both the problems of nonuniqueness and manipulability can be resolved in a

multi item auctions a collection of items is to be distributed among several bidders and each bidder is to receive at most one item assuming that the bidders place some monetary value on each of the items it has been shown that there is a unique vector of equilibrium prices that is optimal in a suitable sense for the bidders in this paper we describe two dynamic auction mechanisms one achieves this equilibrium and the other approximates it to any desired degree of accuracy

long run implications of investment specific technological change an attempt is made to disentangle its effects from the more traditional hicksneutral form of technological progress the balanced growth path for the model is characterized and calibrated to u s national income and product account nipa data the quantitative analysis suggests that investment specific technological change accounts for the major part of growth jel e13 030 041 047

non structural measures of competition toward a synthesis of alternatives abstract procedures for detecting or measuring market power have been suggested in recent years by iwata rosse and panzar and bresnahan this paper integrates elements from all three approaches to provide a single more unified alternative to the structure conduct performance paradigm

human capital prices productivity and growth separate identification of the price and quantity of human capital has important implications for understanding key issues in labor economics and macroeconomics price and quantity series are derived and subjected to robustness checks the human capital price series associated with dierent education levels are highly correlated and exhibit a strong secular trend three result

volatility and slow technology diffusion abstract i study the effects of uncertainty on technology adoption and thereby on volatility and growth i present an analytically tractable model in which i uncertainty about the returns to adoption delays technology diffusion and ii the mean and volatility of output growth are jointly determined in equilibrium i then test the key predictions of the model by studying the introduction of three major information and communication technologies icts computers internet and cell phones i find that countries with more volatile growth rates of real gdp per capita have higher time adoption lags and lower average growth as predicted by the model

on the fit of new keynesian models this article provides new tools for the evaluation of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium dsge models and applies them to a large scale new keynesian model we approximate the dsge model by a vector autoregression and then systematically relax the implied cross equation restrictions and document how the model fit changes we also compare the dsge model s impulse responses to structural shocks with those obtained after relaxing its restrictions we find that the degree of misspecification in this large scale dsge model is no longer so large as to prevent its use in day to day policy analysis yet is not small enough to be ignored

empirical studies of depreciation this paper surveys empirical research on depreciation based on an econometric model of asset prices introduced by hall in 1971 and shows how hall s model provides a vehicle for unifying research on constant quality price indices and depreciation an additional objective of the paper is to illustrate the use of this research in constructing an integrated system of income product and wealth accounts a system of vintage accounts like that originated by christensen and jorgenson in 1973 is the key to successful integration

the economic determinants of technology shocks in a real business cycle model abstract creative destruction due to new technologies causes both long run growth and short run business fluctuations new technologies push the economy on a higher productivity level but also imply partial obsolescence of old production units obsolescence induces an adjustment period during which growth rates gradually fall at some endogenously determined point research for the next technology starts once the new technology is discovered a technology shock occurs and the next cycle starts this is shown in a continuous time rbc model with risk averse agents where savings can be used for financing deterministic capital accumulation and stochastic r d for new technologies

fiscal policy and asset prices with incomplete markets we study the simultaneous impact of fiscal policy decisions on macroeconomic activity wealth distribution and asset prices we consider a general equilibrium overlapping generations model with incomplete markets and heterogeneous agents where government debt and capital are imperfect substitutes increases in public debt lead to significant increases in the riskless rate and to a reduction in the equity premium while higher capital income tax rates lead to a higher equity premium the crowding out effects on capital and output are much higher than in models where government debt and capital are perfect substitutes which thus ignore households portfolio reallocation decisions the author 2012 published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies all rights reserved for permissions please e mail journals permissions oup com oxford university press

aggregate fluctuations and the industry structure of the us economy abstract in a two sector economy changes in intermediate input trade as reflected in cost share fluctuations are key to determining the amplification properties of investment specific and neutral shocks i document that the cost shares of intermediate inputs produced by the investment sector correlate positively with gdp whereas those of inputs produced by the consumption sector correlate negatively with gdp the two sector model of greenwood et al 1988 is extended to allow for trade of intermediate goods and to show that the documented correlations discipline heterogeneous elasticities of substitution in intermediate inputs across sectors shock amplification that is the effect of a sectorial shock on aggregate value added depends on the degree of heterogeneity in these elasticities of substitution for a calibrated economy to that of the united states i find that shock amplification is stronger than in a unitary elasticity economy it is also stronger than in an economy with a common non unitary elasticity that is either inferred from data via reduced form estimates or calibrated to match the same targets as our benchmark economy

what drives the skill premium technological change or demographic variation abstract this paper quantitatively examines the effects of two exogenous driving forces investment specific technological change istc and the demographic change known as the baby boom and the baby bust on the evolution of the skill premium and the college enrollment rate in the postwar u s economy we develop a general equilibrium overlapping generations model with endogenous discrete schooling choice the production technology features capital skill complementarity as in krusell et al 2000 istc through capital skill complementarity raises the relative demand for skilled labor while demographic variation affects the skill premium by changing the age structure and hence the relative supply of skilled labor we find that istc is the key element driving the skill premium in the postwar u s economy and it is quantitatively important for the dynamics of the college enrollment rate the quantitative importance of the demographic change for the evolution of both the skill premium and the college enrollment rate however is limited

the dynamic effects of neutral and investment specific technology shocks the neoclassical growth model is used to identify the short run effects of neutral technology shocks which affect the production of all goods homogeneously and investment specific shocks which affect only investment goods the real equipment price crucial for identifying the investment shocks experiences an abrupt increase in its average rate of decline in 1982 so the analysis is based on a split sample on the basis of the preferred specification the two technology shocks account for 73 percent of hours and 44 percent of output s business cycle variation before 1982 and 38 percent and 80 percent afterward the shocks also account for more than 40 percent of hours and 58 percent of output s forecast errors over a three to eight year horizon in both samples the majority of these effects are driven by the investment shocks

skill biased technological change and the business cycle over the past two decades technological progress in the united states has been biased towards skilled labor what does this imply for business cycles we construct a quarterly skill premium from the cps and use it to identify skill biased technology shocks in a var with long run restrictions hours fall in response to skill biased technology shocks indicating that at least part of the technology induced fall in total hours is due to a compositional shift in labor demand investment specific technology shocks reduce the skill premium indicating that capital and skill are not complementary in aggregate production

bankruptcy costs and the theory of oligopoly this paper examines the relationship between financial decisions and output decisions in oligopolistic markets assuming a duopoly market structure in which financial decisions and output decisions follow in sequence the authors analyze how bankrupt cy costs which are incurred when the firm is unable to meet current debt obligations affect the firm s behavior in output markets with fixed bankruptcy costs firms have an incentive to increase output le vels if they take on more debt proportional bankruptcy costs lead to a u shaped relationship between output and debt foresighted owners of firms are led to take into account the strategic output effects of financial structure when considering an optimal financial structure for the firm

models of labour services and estimates of total factor productivity this article examines the manner in which labour services are modelled in the aggregate production function concentrating on the relationship between numbers employed and average hours worked it argues that numbers employed and hours worked are not perfect substitutes and that conventional estimates of total factor productivity which by using total hours worked as the measure of labour services assume they are perfect substitutes will be biased when there are marked changes in average hours worked the relevance of the theoretical argument is illustrated using data for the united states and the united kingdom