models of policy under stochastic replanning this paper considers a policy environment in which policy is not set by a single policymaker but by a sequence of policymaking administrations administration turnover is determined by a simple random process the consequences of administration turnover are traced through for two versions of a linear rational expectations model and numerical simulations of various policy environments are presented this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

a quantitative analysis of optimal sustainable monetary policies abstract this study examines the quantitative properties of optimal sustainable monetary policies using a monetary model with a stabilization bias as in kurozumi 2008 the optimal sustainable policy is a strategy considered in the absence of commitment technologies however it is implemented following an optimal quasi sustainable policy derived by assuming that the commitment technologies are present this study finds that solving for the policy function of the optimal quasi sustainable policy yields a result basically identical to the ramsey optimal commitment policy under a set of parameters commonly used in the literature the simulation shows two further results policymakers have incentive to deviate from the ramsey optimal commitment policy when the lagged output gap is large and the optimal quasi sustainable policy endogenously diminishes the steadfastness of policymakers commitment

tests for parameter instability in regressions with i 1 processes this article derives the large sample distributions of lagrange multiplier lm tests for parameter instability against several alternatives of interest in the context of cointegrated regression models the fully modified estimator of phillips and hansen is extended to cover general models with stochastic and deterministic trends the test statistics considered include the supf test of quandt as well as the lm tests of nyblom and of nabeya and tanaka it is found that the asymptotic distributions depend on the nature of the regressor processes that is if the regressors are stochastic or deterministic trends the distributions are noticeably different from the distributions when the data are weakly dependent it is also found that the lack of cointegration is a special case of the alternative hypothesis considered an unstable intercept so the tests proposed here may also be viewed as a test of the null of cointegration against the alternative of no cointegration the tests are applied to three data se

detecting spot price forecasts in futures prices futures markets are often described as having two important social functions first they facilitate the transfer of commodity price risk and second they provide forecasts of commodity prices the evidence that futures markets transfer price risk is irrefutable however there is some debate about the markets forecasting ability in particular forecasts based on the current spot price are often as good as those based on the futures price some economists cite a failure to detect superior forecast power in futures prices as evidence of market inefficiency see e g leuthold 1974 and martin and garcia 1981 there are at least two other explanations first there may be nothing for the futures market to forecast if the current spot price equals the true expectation of the future spot price the futures market cannot provide a better forecast second a superior futures market forecast may be obscured by the unexpected component of the realized spot price the true expectation of the future spot price is unobservable one must approximate this expectation with the actual future spot price

an investigation of the gains from commitment in monetary policy this paper proposes a simple framework for analyzing a continuum of monetary policy rules characterized by differing degrees of credibility in which commitment and discretion become special cases of what we call quasi commitment the monetary policy authority is assumed to formulate optimal commitment plans to be tempted to renege on them and to succumb to this temptation with a constant exogenous probability known to the private sector by interpreting this probability as a continuous measure of the lack of credibility of the monetary policy authority we investigate the welfare effect of a marginal increase in credibility our main finding is that in a simple model of the monetary transmission mechanism most of the gains from commitment accrue at relatively low levels of credibility in our benchmark calibration a commitment expected to last for only 6 quarters is enough to bridge 75 of the welfare gap between discretion and commitment this seems to justify the well known concern of monetary policy makers about their credibility even in a world with limited access to commitment technologies

emissions trading and transaction costs analyzing the flaws in the discussion abstract although emissions trading lowers the costs of climate change mitigation transaction costs e g to find a trading partner may reduce its cost effectiveness some economists claim that transaction costs for joint implementation ji and clean development mechanism cdm projects will be higher than for international emissions trading iet transfers arguing that projects require advance approval whereas permit transfers can be automatically registered and checked annually however this article demonstrates the incompleteness of their views by both analyzing empirical data and discussing the theoretical conditions under which transaction costs decrease for ji and cdm and increase for iet

hot air in kyoto cold air in the hague the failure of global climate negotiations abstract why did the climate negotiations in the hague fail our contribution is to argue that the conflict between the european union eu and the united states us stems mainly from disagreement on the cost issue we argue that the three main concerns promoted by the eu in the hague first a 50 national emission ceiling the supplementarity principle second the use of carbon sinks and third an international market control system these issues can be solved by removing all restrictions on free greenhouse gas ghg trade and by establishing the world trade organization as an international authority the us will face considerably higher costs than foreseen at the negotiations in kyoto and will have strong incentives to free ride our main hypothesis is that the eu proposal on supplementarity made the us turn to free riding thus to make the us stay in an international ghg emission trading scheme the eu must reconsider and acknowledge us claims for cheaper reduction options and the right to trade hot air this point is important if the us does not participate the increase in emissions will be much higher than the emission reduction following the eu supplementarity proposal

empirical analysis of corn and soybean basis in canada the article examines the factors affecting the basis for corn and soybeans using several time series techniques to account for potential structural breaks seasonality residual serial correlation and structural breaks as well as potential endogeneity and nonstationarity the spatio temporal empirical framework is based on storage and trade theories which assume the relationship between nondelivery location s spot price and futures price of a storable commodity depends on opportunity cost of capital warehousing costs a convenience yield and shipping costs the interest rate effect is strong for both crops with shipping costs also affecting soybean basis and own inventory levels positively correlated with corn basis the effect of the wedge between the price of carrying physical grain and the maximum storage rate on basis is positive for both crops the empirical results which are robust to multiple estimators provide stronger evidence of a structural break for the soybean basis than for the corn basis

on two notions of imperfect credibility in optimal monetary policies abstract we explore how outcomes of optimal monetary policy with loose commitment schaumburg and tambalotti 2007 debortoli and nunes 2010 with the non reoptimization probability of can be interpretable as outcomes of deeper optimal policy under sustainable plans chari and kehoe 1990 with n period punishment in a standard monetary policy framework we show that for any sufficiently high value of there exists an integer n such that impulse responses to the cost push shock under each policy are similar to each other

optimal sustainable monetary policy in recent monetary policy literature optimal commitment policy or its variant from a timeless perspective has been studied with emphasis on welfare gains from policy commitment regardless of its time consistency problem called a stabilization bias with an optimizing model used in the literature we examine sustainable equilibrium of chari and kehoe 1990 and study optimal sustainable policy the policymaker s strategy in the best sustainable equilibrium in the absence of commitment technologies calibrated versions of the model show that the ramsey equilibrium generated by optimal commitment policy is not achievable suggesting that optimal sustainable policy is the desirable policy benchmark from the viewpoint of policy operationality the latter policy involves some issues due to its dependence on the entire history of lagrange multipliers on a sustainability constraint as a guidepost for actual policy conduct that contains no such issues and attains higher social welfare than discretionary policy does we propose a sustainable policy conducted by following a policy rule that achieves the best markov equilibrium

the costs of carbon sequestration a revealed preference approach increased concem by policy makers with the threat of global climate change has brought with it considerable attention to the possibility of encouraging the growth of forests as a means of sequestering carbon dioxide national academy of sciences nas 1992 james p bruce et al 1996 1 the kyoto protocol to the united nations framework convention on climate change 1997 which establishes emission reduction targets for the united states and other industrialized nations states that carbon sequestration can be used by participating nations to achieve their targets moreover even before the kyoto agreement this approach had become an explicit element of both u s and intemational climate policies u s department of energy 1991 united nations general assembly 1992 william j clinton and albert gore 1993 this high level of interest has been due in part to suggestions that sufficient lands are available to use the approach to mitigate a substantial share of annual carbon dioxide c02 emissions greg marland 1988 daniel a lashof and dennis a tirpak 1989 mark c trexler 1991 and claims that growing trees to sequester carbon is a relatively inexpensive means of combating climate change roger a sedjo and allen m solomon 1989 daniel j dudek and alice leblanc 1990 nas 1992 in other words the serious attention given by policy makers to carbon sequestration can partly be explained by implicit assertions about respective marginal cost functions i develop and demonstrate a method by which the costs of carbon sequestration can be estimated on the basis of evidence from landowners behavior when confronted with the opportunity costs of alternative land uses the simplest of previous economic analyses derived single point estimates of average costs associated with particular sequestration levels marland 1988 sedjo and solomon 1989 dudek and leblanc 1990 edwin s rubin et al 1992 omar masera et al 1995 often it has been assumed that land opportunity costs are zero g van kooten et al 1992 j k winjum et al 1992 new york state energy office 1993 robert k dixon et al 1994 another set of studies essentially engineering costing models has constructed marginal cost schedules by using information on revenues and costs of production for altemative uses on representative types or locations of land and then sorting these in ascending order of cost robert j moulton and kenneth r richards 1990 richards et al 1993 simulation models include a model of the lost profits due to removing land from agricultural production peter j parks and ian w hardie 1995 a mathematical programming model of the agricultural sector and the timber market richard m adams et al 1993 a related model incorporating the effects of agricultural price support programs j m callaway and bruce mccarl 1996 and a dynamic simulation model of forestry susan swinehart 1996 lastly an analysis by andrew j plantinga 1995 adopts land use elasticities from an econometric study to estimate sequestration costs we draw on some of the best features of the previous studies including the carbon levelization method of moulton and richards john f kennedy school of government harvard university 79 john f kennedy street cambridge ma 02138 and resources for the future richard newell supplied excellent research assistance and valuable comments on a previous version were provided by lawrence goulder william nordhaus andrew plantinga kenneth richards two anonymous referees participants in seminars at the universities of california at los angeles and santa barbara the university of maryland the university of michigan the university of texas harvard university stanford university yale university resources for the future and the national bureau of economic research the author alone is resdonsible for any errors 1 after fossil fuel combustion deforestation is the second largest source of carbon dioxide emissions estimates of annual global emissions from deforestation range from 0 6 to 2 8 billion tons compared with slightly less than 6 0 billion tons annually from fossil fuel combustion cement manufacturing and natural gas flaring combined r a houghton 1991 t m smith et al 1993

disaggregation of energy saving targets for china s provinces modeling results and real choices starting with the 11th five year plan fyp and continuing in the 12th fyp quantitative and binding targets have been set for energy efficiency improvement in china drawing on international experience in burden sharing on climate change this paper presents a framework for provincial level disaggregation of energy saving targets in china based on principles of equity and efficiency four scenarios have been established by weighting different choice preferences of responsibility capacity and potential in addition nonlinear and linear allocation models have been developed by considering or ignoring marginal energy saving cost when this framework was applied to the disaggregation of the national energy saving target of 16 during the 12th fyp the results show that the final allocation schemes are largely determined by the policy maker s choice preferences the extreme reduction target of 37 26 fell to shanghai under responsibility preferring rp using the linear allocation method while the capability preferring cp scenario considering marginal energy saving cost is the closest to the actual scheme accepted by the 30 provinces development of such a framework may serve as a feasible policy instrument to help china achieve its conservation targets in a cost effective way and in accordance with its regional development strategies

imperfect credibility and the zero lower bound as the nominal interest rate cannot fall below zero a central bank with imperfect credibility faces a significant challenge to stabilize the economy in a new keynesian model during a large recession we characterize the optimal monetary policy at the zero lower bound for the nominal interest rate if credibility is imperfect confronting monetary policy communication of the u s federal reserve and the swedish riksbank with such a framework the credibility of both institutions is shown to have been low in the aftermath of the 2008 economic crisis

consumers industrialists and the political economy of green taxation co2 taxation in oecd abstract economists have traditionally suggested that politicians should simply impose a uniform tax on harmful emissions as the first best solution prescribes however a detailed analysis of the actual design of green taxes in the oecd reveals that they are differentiated and far from this first best optimal design public choice theory suggests that an important reason that industry as a group in contrast to households is capable of lobbying against green taxation the paper presents empirical findings on co2 taxation within the oecd countries which confirm this theoretical prediction taxes are not uniform and households pay a tax rate which is six times higher than that paid by the industry on average even when tax revenue is fully refunded to industry the potential losers energy intensive firms will lobby harder against it than the potential winners labor intensive firms due to small group advantages the norwegian case confirms these arguments finally it is suggested that a co2 tax may perhaps successfully be applied to households because they tend to be badly organized as such a mix of green taxes in relation to non organized interests and grandfathered permit markets in relation to organized interests should be considered in the search for cost effective and politically feasible instruments

optimal storage and marketing over space and time borrowing from the theory of optimal resource extraction we develop the mechanism guiding efficient commodity storage and marketing over producing regions through the crop year optimal storage occurs at producing areas and time in storage varies directly with distance to market prices grow with interest rates in locations where storage is efficient but more slowly elsewhere which explains why market prices i e prices at the market grow more slowly than interest rates the model is empirically supported by examining storage in the corn belt rates of price growth at various points and quarterly grain marketings

determinants of commodity prices a panel of annual information between 1960 and 2006 for approximately 50 different commodity prices and some other variables and sources is used to tests the determinants of commodity prices according to the evidence interest rates seem to maintain a negative relationship with commodity prices

political economy of the kyoto protocol the kyoto protocol negotiated in december 1997 is the first international treaty to limit emissions of greenhouse gases but kyoto does not mark the conclusion to international cooperation on climate change it is really just a beginning this paper shows that in the aggregate the benefits of undertaking the kyoto reductions should exceed the corresponding costs provided these are achieved cost effectively but although kyoto seeks to promote cost effectiveness it may yet prove very costly moreover the agreement may not even achieve the reductions that it promises either because emissions will relocate to the countries that are not required to stay within kyoto prescribed ceilings or because paper trades will be promoted by the protocol s mechanisms more fundamentally kyoto does not deter non compliance and it only weakly deters non participation these flaws need to be mended but the nature of the problem makes that an especially difficult task copyright 1998 by oxford university press

fiscal policy under loose commitment due to time inconsistency or political turnover policymakers promises are not always fulfilled we analyze an optimal fiscal policy problem where the plans made by the benevolent government are periodically revised in this loose commitment setting the properties of labor and capital income taxes are significantly different than under the full commitment and no commitment assumptions because of the occasional reoptimizations the average capital income tax is positive even in the long run also the autocorrelation of taxes is lower their volatility with respect to output increases and the correlation between capital income taxes and output changes sign our method can be used to analyze the plausibility and the importance of commitment in a wide class of dynamic problems

central bank reputation in a forward looking model this paper examines whether reputation concerns can induce the central bank to implement the time inconsistent optimal monetary policy in the standard new keynesian model interestingly the forward looking nature of this model enables us to account for the coordination of the private agents on the punishment length of their trigger strategy our results suggest that both the inflation bias and the stabilization bias can be overcome by a reputation concerned central bank for the calibrations used in the literature these results enable us to endogenize woodford s timeless perspective and tend to weaken the case for recent monetary policy delegation proposals

a regional dynamic general equilibrium model of alternative climate change strategies outcomes and noncooperative equilibria this study finds that cooperative policies show much higher levels of emissions reductions than do noncooperative strategies that there are substantial differences in the levels of controls in both the cooperative and the noncooperative policies among different countries and that high income countries may be the major losers from cooperation jel h41 q4 q2 q20

lack of commitment and the level of debt the tendency of countries to accumulate public debt has been rationalized in models of political disagreement and lack of commitment we analyze in a benchmark model how the evolution of public debt is affected by lack of commitment per se while commitment introduces indeterminacy in the level of debt lack of commitment creates incentives for debt to converge to specific levels one of the levels that debt often converges to implies no debt accumulation at all in a simple example we prove analytically that debt converges to zero and we analyze numerically more complex models we also show in an imperfect credibility setting that a small deviation from full commitment is enough to obtain these results