country portfolios under global imbalances abstract this paper studies the composition of country portfolios under global imbalances when countries are identical the optimal portfolio is fully diversified which reflects the cross country symmetric self hedging lucas 1982 assuming a structural country asymmetry in patience we construct a model of portfolio choices that features persistent non zero net foreign assets nfa because the latter opens a gap between gnp and gdp we found that an asymmetric hedging of net portfolio returns emerges in addition to the otherwise only lucas symmetric self hedging in shaping the gross country portfolios which implies a short long position of the local asset in the debtor creditor country the resulting portfolio is home biased we calibrate our model to the u s and china data over 1999 2017 and show that it matches the portfolio data for countries with unbalanced net external positions well

public health spending old age productivity and economic growth chaotic cycles under perfect foresight abstract this paper analyses the dynamics of a double cobb douglas economy with overlapping generations and public health investments that affect the supply of efficient labour of the old aged it is shown that the positive steady state of the economy is unique moreover we provide necessary and sufficient conditions for the emergence of endogenous deterministic complex cycles when individuals are perfectly foresighted interestingly i the equilibrium dynamics shows rather complicated phenomena such as a multiplicity of bubblings depending on the size of the public health system and ii the higher the degree of thriftiness the likelier an economy is exposed to endogenous fluctuations because the need to save when young to support consumption when old is reduced

dynamic efficiency in overlapping generations models with stochastic production abstract we consider an overlapping generations economy as in diamond amer econ rev 55 1965 1126 1150 with stochastic production we define two types of efficiency for feasible production consumption allocations using first and second degree stochastic dominance we obtain a complete characterization of inefficiency of type i in this model for each given sequence of strictly concave utility functions for all generations the existence of a competitive equilibrium is proved it is shown that each competitive allocation is short run efficient of type ii

impact of pension system structure on international financial capital allocation abstract recent findings indicate that pension system structure affects private savings and through them the aggregate foreign asset position of a country we present a two country overlapping generations model that explores the relationship between the magnitude of pension guarantees and the resulting portfolio choices of workers the existence of a pay as you go pension system lowers the wealth of the young workers who consequently borrow from abroad to supplement their current consumption and lowers the overall riskiness of their lifetime wealth prompting them to invest in risky equity financed by the selling of safe bonds in particular we are able to replicate and explain the venture capitalist positive net equity accompanied by negative net debt portfolio profile of the united states more broadly we find empirical support for our results in a cross country analysis using data from 110 economies greater amounts of pension spending are associated with international indebtedness long equity positions and short debt positions

time preference and international lending and borrowing in an overlapping generations model two economies represented by diamond type overlapping generations models and differing only in their pure rates of time preference are joined together capital formation balance of payments behavior and welfare are compared under autarky and openness with a positive natural rate of growth the low time preference country runs a current account surplus in the steady state but not necessarily outside it if preexisting capital is not shiftable between countries integration in the world economy makes the high time preference country worse off in the short run the ranking of stationary utility levels under autarky and openness is ambiguous

the impact of technology and structural change on export performance in nine developing countries summary this paper focuses on nine large developing countries structural decomposition analysis shows that they tend to concentrate innovative activities in industries stagnating at the world level international trends partly offset national improvements in patent shares the same occurs for world export shares although countries display greater adaptation to world demand econometric analysis suggests that technological activity is related to export gains in high technology sectors if a country expands in industries with increasing technological opportunities in medium technology sectors if it moves away from low opportunity sectors in low technology sectors if it is initially specialized in growing sectors in high tech and low tech sectors export performance is also affected by the growth of technical capabilities foreign direct investments productivity and the initial level of technical skills and in medium tech by the growth rates of foreign direct investments

the transfer paradox in a one sector overlapping generations model abstract this paper examines the effects of international income transfers on capital accumulation and welfare in a one sector overlapping generations model it is shown that a strong form of the transfer paradox in which the donor country experiences a welfare gain while the recipient country experiences a welfare loss may occur both in and out of steady state in addition it is shown that a weak form of the transfer paradox where either the donor or recipient but not both experiences a paradoxical welfare effect may characterize all segments of the transition path not already characterized by the strong transfer paradox

determinacy of equilibrium in stationary economies with both finite and infinite lived consumers abstract we consider the determinacy of perfect foresight equilibrium near steady state equilibria of stationary infinite horizon economies the work of t j kehoe and d k levine econometrica 53 1985 433 453 is generalized by the inclusion of both infinite lived agents and overlapping generations of finite lived agents and the inclusion of production and non depreciating pure rents we show that indeterminacy is possible in robust examples and that the dimension of the indeterminacy can be as large as the number of goods per period we also discuss extreme cases in which determinacy is guaranteed

stochastic olg models market structure and optimality for a general class of pure exchange olg economies under uncertainty we provide a complete characterization of the efficency properties of competitive equilibria when markets are only sequentially complete and the criterion of efficency is conditional pareto optimality we also consider a particular case in which markets fail to be even sequentially complete and provide a characterization when the criterion of efficency is weakened to ex post pareto optimality

structural change and labor productivity growth in latin american manufacturing industries 1970 96 abstract this paper examines recent changes in the pattern of production specialization attained by latin american manufacturing industries comparing argentina brazil colombia chile and mexico to the united states the paper identifies catching up and lagging behind industries during 1970 96 it considers the evolution of macro and micro forces that affect whether an industry manages to close down the gap with the international technological frontier evidence is presented showing that recent structural reforms did not result in a major discontinuity with the past rather path dependency forces have acted as a major factor explaining differential performance among industries after recent changes in the global incentive regime

the savings multiplier we develop a theory of macroeconomic development based on the novel concept of savings multiplier capital accumulation changes relative prices and income shares between generations creating further incentives to accumulate and thereby rising saving rates as the economy develops the savings multiplier hinges on two mechanisms first accumulation raises wages and leads to redistribution from the consuming old to the saving young second higher wages raise the price of services consumed by the old and the anticipation of such price rise prompts the young to increase their savings our theory captures important aspects of china s development and suggests new channels through which the one child policy and the dismantling of cradle to grave social benefits have fuelled china s savings and accumulation rates

increasing returns and crowding out abstract this paper explores how public debt interferes with the accumulation of physical capital when the technology displays a production externality of the arrow romer type we identify conditions under which a small positive amount of debt will prevent the economy from ever approaching the stock of capital that it would achieve if public debt were zero we also show that the interaction of debt and production externalities may produce bounded possibly cycling capital stock sequences in economies where sustained growth rates are possible with zero national debt finally welfare issues concerning the relation between static and dynamic inefficiencies are discussed

search unemployment in an overlapping generations setting this paper constructs an overlapping generations model in which the steady state equilibrium is characterized by the existence of search unemployment this dynamic general equilibrium model captures the possible existence of search unemployment in the long run despite the absence of exogenous shocks furthermore it allows for the wage offers distribution to be determined endogenously the effect of partial revelation of information on the existence of search unemployment in the long run is examined it is shown that search unemployment may be eliminated in the long run despite the persistence of the state of imperfect information this paper develops an overlapping generations model in which the steady state equilibrium is characterized by search unemployment 2 unemployment is created via a rational rejection of available wage offers in favor of further search for potentially more attractive offers the proposed dynamic general equilibrium model allows for the existence of long run search unemployment despite the absence of exogenous shocks and permits the presence of an endogenously determined nondegenerate wage offer distribution 3 the paper analyzes the trade off between revelation of information and the level of search unemployment in the long run in the absence of external disturbances the level of search unemployment would be expected to decrease as information becomes available in particular if information is fully revealed search unemployment is naturally eliminated exploring the likelihood of the existence of long run search unemployment in a deterministic world this study provides an example of partial revelation of information which eliminates search unemployment in the long run despite the persistence of the state of imperfect information 4 the proposed model presents a discrete infinite time horizon world where economic activity is conducted under imperfect information in every period a single homogeneous good is produced using two factors capital and labor in the production process the aggregate endowment of labor is exogenously given in

an olg model of global imbalances in this paper we investigate the relationship between east asian countries high propensity to save and global imbalances in a two country olg model with production the saving behavior of emerging economies and capital outflows to the united states can be attributed to their poor pay as you go systems the model predicts that emerging countries run a trade surplus only as long as the long run growth rate of the economy is higher than the real interest rate capital overaccumulation case the low real interest rate in the us is therefore evidence in favor of the hypothesis that there is a global saving glut in the world economy the model can explain why the us current account deteriorated gradually and only in the late 1990s although the net foreign asset position had already turned negative in the early 1980s finally the analysis also implies that an improvement of the pay as you go system in china would have the effect of reducing the imbalances in accordance with the theory we find that the higher is the percentage of the working population covered by the pay as you go system the lower are savings and the current account balance in a cross section of countries

allocation of transmission losses to bilateral contracts in a competitive environment under open access market driven transactions have become the new independent decision variables defining the behavior of the power system understanding the impact of bilateral transactions on system losses is important to be able to allocate a loss component to each individual transaction and improve economic efficiency the theory presented here is based on the argument that it is always possible to compute the exact loss allocation corresponding to an infinitesimal bilateral transaction this leads to a set of governing differential equations whose solution yields the loss allocation for contracts of any size several examples illustrate the properties of both the proposed allocation equations and other methods the dependence of the proposed solution on the path of integration and a number of implementation issues

a congestion management aflocation mechanism for multiple transaction networks in this paper we present a physical flow based congestion management allocation mechanism for multiple transaction networks we use the multiple transaction network framework constructed to characterize transmission congestion and then determine the contribution to congestion attributable to each transaction on a physical flow basis this allocation scheme explicitly addresses the issue of counter flows the allocation results are used in the congestion relief of the independent grid operator igo so as to allow it to acquire relief services to remove the overload congestion attributed to each transaction from the network in the most economic manner the congestion charges attributable to each transaction for its usage of the network are also determined we tested the proposed scheme on several systems and we illustrate its capabilities on a network based on the ieee 57 bus system we discuss the policy implications of the congestion relief allocation solution the proposed scheme provides physically reasonable results and is applicable to large scale networks

optimality in stochastic olg models theory for tests we consider general olg economies under uncertainty with short maturity assets and with dividend paying assets of infinite maturity and fiat money and study the optimality properties of equilibria with a sequence of asset markets that are sequentially complete we provide necessary and sufficient conditions in terms of asset prices and dividends for equilibria to be conditionally pareto optimal these results provide a theoretical basis for empirical investigation

the cass criterion the net dividend criterion and optimality abstract abel mankiw summers and zeckhauser assessing dynamic efficiency theory and evidence rev econ stud 56 1989 1 20 propose the net dividend criterion as an easy to use sufficient condition for optimality in general stochastic overlapping generations economies with production we provide examples based on the criterion due to cass on capital overaccumulation in the aggregative neoclassical model of economic growth a complete characterization j econ theory 4 1972 200 223 and its extensions the usual tools for such problems to show that the net dividend criterion need not give the right answer we identify the flaw in their proof we also provide an alternative condition which by an argument unrelated to theirs is a sufficient condition for optimality when dividends are nonnegative and then argue that the condition is not innocuous since it cannot be verified in actual economies

multiple bgps in a growth model with habit persistence this paper establishes multiple balanced growth paths in an otherwise standard competitive growth model without externality or distortions and with households preference dependent upon how his her consumption compares to a habit stock formed by his her own past consumption the key feature in our model is that consumption forms habits in combination with existing habits this model establishes multiple equilibria because habit persistence induces an internal intertemporal complementarity effect among consumption flows with current consumption reinforcing future consumption as a result there exist two balanced growth paths with one path exhibiting low consumption and habits and high economic growth and the other path exhibiting high consumption and habits and low growth that is not necessarily a development trap both steady states are saddles but global indeterminacy arises where a high balanced growth path co exists with a low balanced growth path where the two equilibrium paths cannot be pareto ranked and history need not matter for the selection of the equilibrium path

temporary and permanent migration with and without an immobile factor abstract this paper develops two two country overlapping generations models one with and one without an immobile factor to study temporary and permanent migration temporary migration is shown to be equivalent to international lending and borrowing one strong result found in the literature that if natives of each country are homogeneous permanent migration leads to the migration of the entire population of the impatient country in the long run is overturned welfare effects of migration are analyzed

asset prices debt constraints and inefficiency abstract we consider possibly non stationary economies with endogenous solvency constraints under uncertainty over an infinite horizon as in alvarez and jermann 2000 5 a sort of cass criterion cass 1972 10 completely characterizes constrained inefficiency under the hypothesis of uniform gains from risk sharing which is always satisfied in stationary economies when the autarchy is constrained inefficient uniform gains from risk sharing also guarantee a finite value of the intertemporal aggregate endowment at a constrained optimum hence no equilibrium exhibits a null interest rate in the long run finally constrained inefficiency occurs if and only if there exists a feasible redistribution producing a welfare improvement at all contingencies

a decentralized approach for optimal wholesale cross border trade planning using multi agent technology over the past decade the power industry has been undergoing deregulations to introduce competitions among market participants once centralized decision making must now adapt to the new market structure the optimal cross border electricity trade planning is an important issue in interconnected power systems under transmission open access in this paper a decentralized approach is suggested to solve the problem using multiagent technology in the new approach rational market participants make decisions based on their own benefits in the meantime the minimum production and transmission cost of the whole system can be reached without a central coordination except necessary information exchange through media like the internet a relevant lemma has been proven the approach is implemented via a multiagent system using java programming language computer tests on a five area test system show that the suggested new approach is effective and promising

latin america s new economic model micro responses and economic restructuring abstract this paper introduces a special issue on the microeconomics of latin america under the new economic model nem the paper reviews the rationale and policies of the nem and analyzes the impact of the reforms at the macroeconomic sectoral and microeconomic levels at the firm level the contributions to this issue demonstrate that a considerable adjustment process is taking place as sectoral structural change indices demonstrate however this has not resulted in widespread shifts of resources between sectors nor has it resulted in significant improvement in overall employment productivity and growth the authors analyze the reasons for this disjuncture and suggest policy alternatives

transmission loss allocation a comparison of different practical algorithms a pool operated electricity market based on hourly auctions usually neglects network constraints and network losses while applying its market clearing mechanism this mechanism determines the accepted and nonaccepted energy bids as well as the hourly market clearing prices as a result ex post procedures are needed to resolve network congestions and to allocate transmission losses to generators and demands this paper focuses on transmission loss allocation procedures and provides a detailed comparison of four alternative algorithms 1 pro rata pr 2 marginal allocation 3 unsubsidized marginal allocation and 4 proportional sharing a case study based on the ieee rts is provided different load scenarios covering a whole year are analyzed finally conclusions and recommendations are stated

comparative statics and perfect foresight in infinite horizon economies does a pure exchange economy with an infinite time horizon have determinate perfect foresight equilibria when there is a finite number of infinitely lived agents equilibria are generically determinate this is not true with overlapping generations of finitely lived agents we ask whether the initial conditions together with the requirement of convergence to a steady state locally determine an equilibrium price path in this framework there are many economies with isolated equilibria many with continua of equilibria and many with no equilibria at all with two or more goods in every period not only can the price level be indeterminate but relative prices as well furthermore such indeterminacy can occur whether or not there is fiat money and whether or not the equilibria are pareto efficient this paper considers whether infinite horizon economies have determinate perfect foresight equilibria this question is of crucial importance if instead equilibria are locally indeterminate not only are we unable to make comparative static predictions but the agents in the model are unable to determine the consequences of unanticipated shocks the idea underlying perfect foresight is that agents expectations should be the actual future sequence predicted by the model if the model does not make determinate predictions the concept of perfect foresight is meaningless we consider two extreme cases the first with a finite number of infinitely lived consumers and the second with an infinite number of finitely lived consumers an overlapping generations model both are models of stationary pure exchange economies no production including the storage of goods between periods can occur these models are unrealistic but are the easiest to study extensions of the results of this paper to models with production infinitely lived assets and mixtures of the two types of consumers are presented by muller and woodford 29 when there is a finite number of infinitely lived consumers we argue that equilibria are generically determinate this is because the effective number of equations determining equilibria is not infinite but equal to the number of agents minus one and must determine the marginal utility of income for all but one agent generically near an equilibrium these equations are independent and exactly determine the unknowns when there are infinitely many overlapping generations this reasoning breaks down an infinite number of equations is not necessarily sufficient to determine

determinacy of equilibrium in an overlapping generations model with heterogeneous agents abstract we study the determinacy of perfect foresight equilibrium near a steady state in an overlapping generations model with production and both altruistic and non altruistic agents having distinct utility functions the proportion of each type of consumer is exogenously given our main results show that when there are positive stationary bequests some standard assumptions on preferences and technology rule out local indeterminacy for any positive value of the proportions in the particular case of a separable utility function for altruistic agents we prove that the determinacy property does not depend on the size of the infinite lived altruistic dynasties journal of economic literature classification numbers c62 d91 o21 o41

transmission loss allocation through complex power flow tracing this paper presents a new method for transmission loss allocation the method is based on tracing the complex power flow through the network and determining the share of each load on the flow and losses through each line transmission losses are taken into consideration during power flow tracing unbundling line losses is carried out using an equation which has a physical basis and considers the coupling between active and reactive power flows as well as the cross effects of active and reactive power on active and reactive losses a tracing algorithm which can be considered direct to a good extent as there is no need for exhaustive search to determine the flow paths as these are determined in a systematic way during the course of tracing results of application of the proposed method are also presented

existence uniqueness and stability of equilibrium in an overlapping generations model with productive capital abstract this paper analyzes the existence uniqueness and stability of a steady state equilibrium in an overlapping generations model with productive capital it is shown that for any feasible set of well behaved preferences there exists a production function that satisfies the inada conditions under which the economy experiences global contraction and the steady state equilibrium is characterized by the absence of production and consumption the study establishes a strengthened inada condition which is necessary to preclude global contraction and sufficient conditions for the existence of a unique and globally stable non trivial steady state equilibrium

complex losses allocation to generators and loads based on circuit theory and aumann shapley method this paper presents a new method to allocate active and reactive losses simultaneously to generators and loads the allocation is calculated for each transmission branch identifying and quantifying the buses responsibilities in losses this is a two step process in the first step generators are modeled as current injections and loads as constant admittances in order to determine generator participations in losses in the second step loads are modeled as current sources and generators as constant admittances in order to determine load participations in losses the aumann shapley and circuit theories are used to calculate the participation of each real and imaginary current component considering them as independent players in the complex losses allocation game the properties of the aumann shapley method ensure equitable allocation and recovery of the total active and reactive losses counter flow cross subsidy and negative allocation issues are discussed numerical results are presented and discussed to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed method

investment and technical progress models in which the growth rate is exogenous provide no role for government in determining growth in our model growth is associated with investment through externalities from learning by watching rather than with the level of the capital stock presumption of a technical progress function with first increasing and then decreasing returns leads to multiple steady state growth equilibria there is also an explicit role of government policy in setting tax rates on output it follows that two economies with identical structures and stochastic tax policies may exhibit very different growth paths over sustained periods although the stationary distribution of growth rates is the same given the desirability in principle of subsidizing investment various practical methods are considered copyright 1992 by oxford university press

on the interaction between risk sharing and capital accumulation in a stochastic olg model with production abstract we analyze the interaction between risk sharing and capital accumulation in a stochastic olg model with production we give a complete characterization of interim pareto optimal competitive equilibrium allocations furthermore we provide tests of pareto optimality suboptimality based on risky rates of return only

confidence and the real value of money in an overlapping generations economy we demonstrate that stochastic bubbles which have a constant exogenous probability of collapsing may exist in general equilibrium on an intrinsically useless and unbacked asset money this may happen provided that the probability q that the bubble will persist next period is large enough and exceeds a threshold level q which we call the minimum rate of confidence this condition is always violated when the economy without bubble is dynamically efficient it is more likely to be satisfied in dynamically inefficient economies the larger the size of the inefficiency as measured by the excess of the growth rate over the no bubble interest rate we study both exchange and production economies

will you marry me a perspective on the gender gap abstract this paper develops a general equilibrium model of the gender wage gap the difference in earnings is a consequence of a demographic regularity that men tend to marry younger women which may limit women s labor mobility and hence their average earnings however couples are always free not to marry and do so only if it is in each s self interest the intrafamily allocation of resources is determined via non cooperative bargaining this leads to interesting interactions between the game played by husband and wife on the one hand and the competitive environment in which they are immersed on the other the predictions resulting from this model s interplay between locational choice and family bargaining are consistent with the observation that the increasing stress put by women on their careers over the past 30 years has been contemporaneous with reductions in both marriage rates and the gender gap the model provides insight into the consequences of this for the relative welfare of men and women as well as exploring its wider economic implications

could prometheus be bound again a contribution to the convergence controversy abstract this paper presents a neoclassical model of stochastic growth in which the probability of adverse shocks to production is inversely related to the aggregate stock of capital per capita postulating this endogenous relationship justified by empirical evidence the model yields predictions that are largely consistent with the recent findings of cross country club convergence differently from the standard explanation based on multiplicity of steady states this model is also able to yield predictions consistent with observable intra distribution dynamics thus accounting for phenomena such as economic miracles growth disasters and reversals of fortune

studies of bilateral contracts with respect to steady state security in a deregulated environment under a deregulated environment electricity consumers and suppliers will be permitted to establish various bilateral service contracts the transmission company however will only have to honour and execute these bilateral contracts as far as the system design and operating conditions permit a fundamental question is to what extent the system security could affect these contracts and what kinds of system reinforcements will be required to meet the future contract needs this paper describes a series of studies modelling the bilateral contracts by using a transaction matrix t the concept of the transaction matrix is to expand the conventional load flow variables such as generations pg and loads pd into a 2 dimensional matrix t each element of t namely t sub ij corresponds to a bilateral contract between a supplier pg sub i and consumer pd sub j a generalized linear programming formulation is then proposed to solve various system operation and planning problems under a deregulated environment subjected to the steady state security constraints e g generation and line flow limits examples are presented to illustrate how to use this formulation to maximize any bilateral contract individual generation or groups of generations or to minimize the necessary correction needed for a proposed transaction matrix t sup 0 in order to comply with the security requirements other studies such as the use of monte carlo methods to study the behaviour of random bilateral contracts are also presented and discussed

industrial policy changes and firm level technological capability development evidence from northern brazil summary much has been written about the impacts of the policy changes of the 1990s on industrial performance particularly in latin america most of the studies are based on aggregated analyses that argue for or against such reforms in the policy regime this study offers an alternative view to this debate based on a longitudinal empirical scrutiny of technological capability development in 46 local and foreign firms from three sectors in northern brazil there were inter sector and inter firm variations in terms of the manner and rate of capability development for specific technical functions overall the patterns of firm level capability development exhibited a positive response to the structural reforms but such responses were not a mere consequence of trade openness a combination of government policy foreign competition and intra firm capability building efforts proved essential for speeding up capability development in some of the sampled firms thus policies for accelerating industrial technological capability development in a developing area such as the one examined here would involve not only macro level incentives and competition but very importantly measures that facilitate intra firm capability building efforts

wheeling of power under deregulated environment of power system a bibilographical survey the power industry is moving rapidly from regulated conventional setup to a deregulated environment there is an urgent need to keep a track of international experiences and activities taking place in this emerging field this paper gives a bibliographical survey and general backgrounds of research and development in the field of power system wheeling under deregulated environment based on over 170 published articles wheeling in general and the establishment of wheeling rate in particular are subjects of extensive debate today this will be very much useful for all countries especially those developing countries which are moving toward the unbundling of electricity supply industry esi the collected literature have been divided into many section so that new researchers do not face any difficulty for obtaining literature particularly in the area of wheeling of power under deregulated environment

terms of trade and current account dynamics a methodological critique this paper suggests that the recent intertemporal studies concerning the implications of terms of trade deterioration on the current account of a small open economy may suffer from significant methodological deficiencies the study demonstrates that while the assumption of a small open economy represents a legitimate modeling simplification the analysis of the impact of perturbation of the terms of trade on the current account of this small open economy is methodologically erroneous in particular the paper demonstrates that a given pattern of terms of trade deterioration may be associated with opposing evolutionary patterns of the current account of this small economy this paper argues that the methodology employed by several influential intertemporal studies concerning the relationship between the terms of trade and the current account of a small economy suffers from critical deficiencies it demonstrates that while the assumption of a small open economy confronting exogenously determined terms of trade represents a legitimate modeling simplification the analysis of the impact of perturbations of this terms of trade on the small open economy and on its current account is methodologically erroneous in particular the paper demonstrates that a small economy may experience diametrically opposing evolutionary patterns of the current account in association with a given pattern of terms of trade deterioration the paper suggests therefore that predictions based on this literature are in need of reassessment these intertemporal studies of the relationship between the terms of trade and the current account of a small economy have been conducted under the simplifying assumption that perturbations in the terms of trade are exogenous and do not affect the world interest rate 2 this approach may reflect a valid simplification as long as the study is concerned with exportable goods whose prices are insignificant in the determination of the general price level in the world economy however if the focus of the analysis is a small country that exports a group of commodities such as agricultural goods or industrial goods a change in the terms of trade for the small economy may reflect fundamental changes in the world relative prices that are

financial integration entrepreneurial risk and global dynamics abstract how does financial integration impact capital accumulation current account dynamics and cross country inequality we investigate this question within a two country general equilibrium incomplete markets model that focuses on the importance of idiosyncratic entrepreneurial risk a risk that introduces not only a precautionary motive for saving but also a wedge between the interest rate and the marginal product of capital our contribution is to show that this friction provides a simple explanation for the emergence of global imbalances a resolution to the empirical puzzle that capital often fails to flow from the rich or slow growing countries to the poor or fast growing ones and a set of policy lessons regarding the intertemporal costs and benefits of capital account liberalization

a family production overlapping generations economy abstract this paper provides a theoretical analysis of an overlapping generations economy in which production decisions and input output allocations are all carried out at the family level i consider a single class of output allocation schemes and various degrees of knowledge about the production technology under complete knowledge i show that a family organizational structure in which everyone receives his marginal contribution to output invests less in physical capital than under a perfectly competitive equilibrium environment under incomplete knowledge i analyze and compare how beliefs about the input output relationship affect the physical capital accumulation dynamics and the long run standards of living

a general formulation for lmp evaluation the evaluation of locational marginal prices or lmps which constitute the basis of the new generation of market design in the u s is a critical need in the side by side operation of electricity markets and power systems their use in various applications such as congestion management and hedging requires specific lmp components in the computations we provide a general formulation for the evaluation of the lmp components by making explicit use of the important role played by the nodes with generators with free capacity on the other hand the lmps of the nodes without generation or with the generators at their limits are a function of the lmps at the marginal nodes and the impacts of the network constraints including the losses in the network in the formulation we pay special attention to the importance of the assumptions and specifications the so called policy specification in the determination of the components we obtain a very general formulation that brings under a single framework the different decomposition approaches that exist the formulation s comprehensiveness brings numerous insights into the various decompositions provides a platform for their comparative analysis and allows us to understand the direct implications and the role of the policy specified moreover the formulation reveals the limitations of any decomposition into the components due to the underlying structural interdependencies among them which is clearly shown in this paper we provide an example to illustrate the capabilities and the insights obtainable with the use of this formulation

a novel nucleolus based loss allocation method in bilateral electricity markets the situation of current research on power losses allocation in bilateral electricity markets is presented based on cooperative game theory a novel nucleolus theory based method for power losses allocation under the bilateral transactions model is put forward and compared in detail with the shapley value based allocation method the impacts of different market players on network power losses are taken into account with the new method network power losses can be allocated to each transaction reasonably the allocation results would not be affected by the sequence that each transaction is formed and be active the method answers for the open equal and impartial principles of electricity market and can be easily understood and accepted by market players numerical tests validated the equity and validity of the method

intergenerational altruism and the environment we construct an overlapping generations model of pollution externality in which individuals are altruistically linked to their offspring as in barro 1974 it is shown that steady state consumption may be a decreasing function of the intergenerational degree of altruism despite individuals altruism the competitive equilibrium is not optimal we thus study the social optimum and show that it can be decentralized

a methodology for allocating transmission losses due to cross border trades transmission pricing of cross border trades is often difficult since individual countries may use incompatible internal transmission pricing regimes and they are usually unwilling to disclose any sensitive information about their own systems in this paper the use of a tracing methodology is proposed to overcome these problems using loss allocation problem as an example firstly a modification of the tracing methodology is presented in which the loss is allocated in a direct way then a unifying tracing based methodology of transmission pricing for cross border trades is proposed the only data required are the flows in the tie lines and the charges to be applied to the border nodes in each country no information is required about individual transactions load generation profiles or internal networks the methodology is illustrated on the ieee 118 node network divided into four areas each with a different internal transmission pricing methodology the proposed methodology is shown to be simple transparent and very fast and it can deal effectively with cyclic flows

social security and demographic shocks an overlapping generations model of social security with shocks to the productivity of labor and capital and demographic shocks is studied we focus attention on stationary long run allocations an allocation is interim optimal if there does not exist another feasible allocation that improves the expected welfare of all generations computed conditionally on the state of the world when they are born we characterize the set of interim optimal allocations and study the equilibria associated with various institutional forms of social security from the point of view of this optimality criterion we obtain the analogs of the two traditional welfare theorems of microeconomic theory assume that there exists a financial asset in fixed quantity which supports some non null intergenerational transfers then the rational expectations equilibrium allocation of this economy is interim optimal conversely any stationary interim optimal allocation can be supported by such an equilibrium with adequate lump sum transfers

a physical flow based approach to allocating transmission losses in a transaction framework a physical flow based approach to allocating transmission losses in a multiple transaction system is presented the allocation scheme is developed using a framework in which the transactions are explicitly represented the proposed scheme is based on expressing losses explicitly in terms of all the transactions in the system an important property of the allocation scheme is its effective capability to deal with counter flows that result in the presence of specific transactions extensive numerical testing indicates that the allocation scheme produces loss allocations that are appropriate and that behave in a physically reasonable manner test results on several systems are presented

global imbalances in the xix xx and the xxi centuries we establish a new stylized fact while the current account and the trade balances are positively correlated during the second globalization 1990s 2010s they were negatively correlated during the first globalization 1870s 1910s we show that the reason behind is that the world interest rate is currently low relatively to the world growth rate due to a global saving glut while this was not the case during the first globalization

long term substitutability between environmental and man made goods abstract substitutability between environmental and man made goods plays a major role in the sustainability debate the notion of substitutability covers a continuous spectrum with perfect substitutability at one end and poor substitutability at the other in this paper it is shown that if economic growth sustains a sharp distinction emerges between perfect and poor substitutability without any intermediate interpretation of substitutability if poor substitutability prevails environmental resources will eventually constitute the major part of total consumption value we relate our results to baumol s disease and assess the implications of this phenomenon for the compensation of environmental losses

love thy children abstract this paper proves that barro s 1974 debt neutrality proposition whose relevance hinges in an economy with bequest motives on bequests being operative in the economy without public debt is not applicable to a wide class of overlapping generation economies those with a weak bequest motive in particular it is shown that the bequest motive is always too weak and public debt therefore non neutral when non physical assets have a well defined function reducing oversavings in the corresponding economy without bequest motive i e when the non altruistic economy is dynamically inefficient

transmission loss allocation i single energy market this paper presents a new methodology for allocating transmission losses to the participants of a single energy market the proposed approach is based on the incremental transmission loss concept and is implemented through two models basic and extended in the basic model the total system losses are estimated through the linear dc load flow equations while the extended model uses the exact ac formulation the concept of center of losses is used a fictitious bus in the system network where all transactions are compensated for transmission losses both models provide a sharing of transmission losses among generators and loads based on a predefined proportion for instance 50 50 for each participant class some important aspects related with the allocation fairness and transparency are illustrated by numerical applications with the ieee reliability test system the extension of this methodology to interconnected energy markets is treated in a companion paper

economic inefficiencies and cross subsidies in an auction based electricity pool this paper compares two contrasting yet often used electricity market clearing procedures i an auction based algorithm including congestion management and transmission loss cost allocation and ii an optimal power flow the auction procedure produces a single period unit commitment and hence can be compared directly to an optimal power flow solution these algorithms are compared in terms of the economic efficiency of the solution attained and in terms of cross subsidies among generators and demands the purpose of this comparison is to quantify the actual cost to market participants of using a simple seemingly transparent procedure such as an auction based algorithm versus an integrated but computationally intensive one such as an optimal power flow

the economics of technical change this paper reviews the recent rapidly growing literature on technical change in the economy it concentrates on innovations and their diffusion at firm and industry level since this was the area designated as relatively weak in earlier literature surveys the review argues that the extensive empirical evidence and theoretical analysis now available presents a basic challenge to neoclassical theory after indicating some weaknesses in the neo schumpeterian literature the paper concludes by advocating an experiment with a new form of assessment by neighboring disciplines to economics itself which would take full account of the fundamental issues at stake in this modern methodenstreit c 1994 academic press inc copyright 1994 by oxford university press

is pension reform conducive to higher saving declining fertility mortality and productivity rates in developed countries and the popularity of the social security privatization in chile as a pathway to financial development have sparked a global interest in social security reform this paper analyzes the effect of social security on saving using a panel of countries over 25 years variation in the characteristics of social security systems is used to determine whether less reliance on a pay as you go unfunded system is associated with higher national saving there is little evidence that countries that implement defined contribution reforms have higher trends in saving rates after the reform cross sectionally countries with pay as you go systems tend to have lower saving rates and this effect increases with the coverage rate on the system

safe debt risky capital the author extends the diamond 1965 model of national debt in two directions she first introduces technological uncertainty and then she allows the stock of debt to vary the author studies the dynamical equilibria of the resulting stochastic system and she establishes conditions for the existence of stationary states that are expressed in terms of invariant distributions since conditions that ensure the existence of a stochastic stationary state with positive debt are very restrictive in this model financial instability is a pervasive phenomenon and allocations are in general dynamically inefficient copyright 1994 by the london school of economics and political science