effluent regulation and long run optimality a regulator faced with free entry of firms is concerned not only with the implications of public policy for the discharges from a representative firm but also with the total pollution observed at the long run market equilibrium the regulator must take into account not only the effects of regulations upon the net marginal returns of the firm but must also consider the total profit of the firm and incentives for entry and exit this paper shows that effluent charges and tradeable effluent permits lead to long run optimality with entry of small firms the difference between firm payments and environmental damages is interpreted as the rent accruing to the environmental resource this result applies only to the competitive case with small polluters the analysis presented here allows a comparison and clarification of the literature on small and large polluters in a multi input framework with social damages dependent upon total effluents effluent charges are shown here to result in socially optimal entry confirming an assertion of baumol and oates 2 p 179 fn 161 and the important result of schulze and d arge 15 by taking average as well as marginal damages into account the effluent charge results in optimal firm scale levels and the correct input mix at the free entry market equilibrium the firm subject to an effluent tax will operate above or below the private minimum efficient scale depending upon whether average external costs exceed or are less than marginal external costs since public policy to reduce effluents is often directed at reducing the effluentgenerating activity some policy recommendations include a tax on the final output of the polluting firm in some theoretical analyses a relation between the output of the firm and the effluent level is identified and a pigouvian output tax is applied this approach should not be followed by policymakers since an output tax does not provide firms with the correct incentives for either input substitution or market entry it is shown that while a lump sum transfer is needed to provide correct entry incentives when a pigouvian output tax is applied no such transfer is needed if the tax is correctly applied to effluents contrary to 5 even if optimal firm scale and i thank the referees for helpful suggestions the support of the national science foundation under grant ses 82 19121 is gratefully acknowledged any errors are my responsibility 103

ingredients of famine analysis availability and entitlements famines often take place in situations of moderate to good food availability without any significant decline of food supply per head the paper presents an alternative approach to famines which does not concentrate on availability but on people s ability to command food through legal means available in the society including the use of production possibilities trade opportunities entitlements vis a vis the state etc the approach is explained focusing on exchange entitlement mappings fluctuations in which can lead to big shifts in the intergroup distribution of food command the approach is then applied to the bengal famine of 1943 the ethiopian famine in wollo in 1973 and the bangladesh famine in 1974 and some general conclusions are drawn about the nature and classes of famines

valuing agricultural firms an examination of the contingent claims approach to pricing real assets abstract uncertainty about prices output demand and managerial decisions is not easily incorporated into a valuation model for real assets however techniques originally developed in the option pricing literature can accommodate these complexities this paper examines the contingent claims approach to valuing real assets a model for the value of an agricultural producer is derived optimal shutting and reopening volatile output and demand and other realistic features are included the model differs markedly from conventional discounted cash flow models empirical tests using prices of rubber and palm oil estates listed on the stock exchange of singapore offer some support for the model

environmental regulation technological diversity and the dynamics of technological change inducing technological progress is an important objective of environmental regulation we investigate under which conditions regulation induced technological progress pursues the best technological option we analyze a setting with vertical and horizontal technological progress cost uncertainty time limited patent protection and a case that is typical for some emissi4on intensive industries like electricity generation or the chemical industry under taxes and standards only the current least cost technology is used and developed implying a lock in into a possibly inferior technology tradable permits yield slower progress but can facilitate the simultaneous development of technologies rendering lock ins less likely

regulating stock externalities under uncertainty abstract using a simple analytical model incorporating benefits of a stock costs of adjusting the stock and uncertainty in costs we uncover several important principles governing the choice of price based policies e g taxes relative to quantity based policies e g tradable permits for controlling stock externalities as in weitzman rev econom stud 41 4 1974 477 the relative slopes of the marginal benefits and costs of controlling the externality continue to be critical determinants of the efficiency of prices relative to quantities with flatter marginal benefits and steeper marginal costs favoring prices but some important adjustments for dynamic effects are necessary including correlation of cost shocks across time discounting stock decay and the rate of benefits growth applied to the problem of greenhouse gases and climate change we find that a price based instrument generates several times the expected net benefits of a quantity instrument

on the option to invest in pollution control under a regime of tradable emissions allowances optimal decisions of a firm facing the option of retrofitting its plant to reduce pollution and thereby eliminate the need to purchase emissions allowances are analysed the decision is treated as a real option with the price of pollution permits following a known stochastic process the model is formulated as a set of one dimensional partial differential equations at discrete points in time the firm owner makes optimal decisions about the retrofit including whether to mothball temporarily the model is used to analyse a firm s decision to instal a scrubber as a result of the 1990 u s clean air act jel classification q25 d81 g31 sur la possibilite d investir dans le controle de la pollution dans un regime de permis d emission de pollution echangeables commercialement ce memoire examine les decisions optimales d une entreprise face a la possibilite d adapter ses installations pour reduire la pollution et ce faisant d eliminer le besoin de se procurer des permis d emission de pollution sur le marche le decision est traitee comme une option reelle ou le prix des permis resulte d un processus stochastique connu le modele est formule sous forme d un ensemble d equations differentielles partielles a une dimension a des points discontinus dans le temps le proprietaire de l entreprise prend des decisions optimales de mise a niveau des installations y compris la possibilite de les fermer temporairement le modele est utilise pour analyser une decision d installer un epurateur suite a la mise en place de la loi americaine de 1990 clean air act

the institutional causes of china s great famine 1959 1961 this paper studies the causes of china s great famine during which 16 5 to 45 million individuals perished in rural areas we document that average rural food retention during the famine was too high to generate a severe famine without rural inequality in food availability that there was significant variance in famine mortality rates across rural regions and that rural mortality rates were positively correlated with per capita food production a surprising pattern that is unique to the famine years we provide evidence that an inflexible and progressive government procurement policy where procurement could not adjust to contemporaneous production and larger shares of expected production were procured from more productive regions was necessary for generating this pattern and that this policy was a quantitatively important contributor to overall famine mortality

evaluating natural resource investments notwithstanding impressive advances in the theory of finance over the past 2 decades practical procedures for capital budgeting have evolved only slowly the standard technique which has remained unchanged in essentials since it was originally proposed see dean 1951 bierman and smidt 1960 derives from a simple adaptation of the fisher 1907 model of valuation under certainty under this technique expected cash flows from an investment project are discounted at a rate deemed appropriate to their risk and the resulting present value is compared with the cost of the project this standard textbook technique reflects modern theoretical developments only insofar as estimates of the discount rate may be obtained from crude application of single period asset pricing theory but see brennan 1973 bogue and roll 1974 turnbull 1977 constantinides 1978 the inadequacy of this approach to capital budgeting is widely acknowledged although not widely discussed its obvious deficiency is its the evaluation of mining and other natural resource projects is made particularly difficult by the high degree of uncertainty attaching to output prices it is shown that the techniques of continuous time arbitrage and stochastic control theory may be used not only to value such projects but also to determine the optimal policies for developing managing and abandoning them the approach may be adapted to a wide variety of contexts outside the natural resource sector where uncertainty about future project revenues is a paramount concern

prices vs quantities the effects on technology choice abstract it is well known that price and quantity based regulation approaches provide different investment incentives but usually only the effect on the level of investment is studied in this paper we show that under uncertainty they also lead to the adoption of different technologies due to the disparate risks that a regulated firm is exposed to different regulatory instruments induce different technologies and this effect cannot be compensated by varying the design of the instruments furthermore price based instruments lead to the adoption of a socially suboptimal technology so that the inclusion of technology choice provides a bias in favor of a quantity based regulation compared with weitzman s weitzman m l 1974 prices vs quantities review of economic studies 41 477 491 criterion

rate of return regulation and two part tariffs in choosing a two part tariff a monopoly subject to rate of return regulation will rely more on demand elasticities and less on marginal costs than would a welfare maximizing firm the rate of return regulated firm also will reduce its access fee or its marginal usage fee more depending on whether adding consumers or increasing output requires marginally the most capital in the typical case these effects will favor declining block rate structures which helps to explain their widespread use by rate of return regulated firms

firm incentives to promote technological change in pollution control reply abstract the process of technological change in pollution control is broken into three basic steps innovation diffusion and optimal agency response firm incentives to promote these steps are then examined under five regulatory regimes direct controls emission subsidies emission taxes free marketable permits and auctioned marketable permits on a relative basis emission taxes and auctioned permits provide the highest firm incentives to promote technological change at times free permits generate lower incentives direct controls which are common regulatory tools usually provide the lowest relative firm incentives to promote technological change

endogenous technical change and environmental regulation abstract a model of environmental regulation under uncertainty is developed to compare the effect of price versus quantity rules upon technical change quantity rules tend to encourage more efficient levels of technical change

rural urban disparity and sectoral labour allocation in china this study examines china s rural urban segmentation and its causes in the context of economic reforms household survey and aggregate data indicate a v shaped process in which rural urban consumption and income differentials decreased between 1978 and 1985 but then have continually increased to historically high levels this sectoral division is consistent with production function estimates based on provincial data that reveal higher labour productivity in urban state owned industries than in rural industries and agriculture to explain the v shaped change we argue that the precedent of successful rural reforms raised farmers relative earnings but the remaining obstacles to an efficient sectoral allocation of labour have prevented china from eliminating dualism recent financial policies consisting of urban price subsidies and increased investment credits have also had influential distribution effects that are biased against the rural sector

coupled economic ecological systems with slow and fast dynamics modelling and analysis method the purpose of this article is to contribute to the exploration of non convex dynamics in coupled human nature systems we study welfare issues associated with the management of a human nature complex adaptive system with a threshold and a stochastic driver we exemplify with a specific system where we link changes in the number and diversity of birds to the abundance of a pest insects that causes damages to goods and services valuable to human beings we present a method that simplifies the analysis and helps us discuss different management models that combine direct and indirect controls of the pest this allows us to show that 1 the choice of control method depends in a highly non linear way on biodiversity characteristics and 2 the socially optimal outcome may not be reachable using price instruments hence the price vs quantity debate needs to be revisited using a complex adaptive system lens

pollution permits and environmental innovation abstract this paper starts with a warning about the negative impact of plain pollution allowance markets on environmental pollution innovation stand alone spot markets enable the government to expropriate an innovation by offering a competing technology pollution permits that puts an arbitrary downward pressure on the licensing price advance allowances reduce expropriation but still create suboptimal incentives for innovation they have the further drawback that permits are inefficiently used when the innovation occurs options to pollute at a given striking price fare better than allowances because they create private incentives to phase out pollution in the case of innovation we characterize the social optimum and show that it can be implemented by issuing options to pollute inter alia finally the paper compares ex ante and ex post government procurement surprisingly ex post licensing by the innovator to the government may yield a higher licensing fee than an ex ante contract

using fast and slow processes to manage resources with thresholds economists have relied on convexity assumptions for a long time but many natural resources that stem from ecosystems have non convexities in their dynamics this article illustrates the consequences of relaxing convexity assumptions for management and the role of fast and slow variables the paper presents a general framework to handle systems with fast and slow variables and illustrates the method using a model of coral reefs subject to fishing pressure the insights obtained are used to discuss alternative management strategies

environmental policy incentives to adopt advanced abatement technology abstract we investigate incentives through environmental policy instruments to adopt advanced abatement technology first we study the case where the regulator makes long term commitments to policy levels and does not anticipate arrival of new technology we show that taxes provide stronger incentives than permits auctioned and free permits offer identical incentives and standards may give stronger incentives than permits second we investigate scenarios where the regulator anticipates new technologies we show that with taxes and permits the regulator can induce first best outcomes if he moves after firms have invested whereas this does not always hold if he moves first

instrument choice for environmental protection when technological innovation is endogenous this paper compares qualitatively and quantitatively the welfare effects of emissions taxes auctioned emissions permits and free grandfathered permits when technological innovation is endogenous we find that there is no unambiguous case for preferring any of these policy instruments the relative welfare ranking of instruments depends on the costs of innovation the extent to which innovations can be imitated the slope and level of the marginal environmental benefit function and the number of polluting firms we illustrate the types of situations when there can be significant welfare discrepancies between the policies and when there are not

prices vs quantities the irrelevance of irreversibility we explore the efficacy of price and quantity controls in a dynamic setup in which the decisions of some agents are irreversible the assumption of irreversibility is shown to improve the performance of a tax relative to that of a system of tradable quotas and significantly alter the equilibrium behavior of agents we nevertheless conclude that taking into account the fact that agents decisions may be irreversible does not lead to policy implications significantly different from those reached in a simpler model in which irreversibility is ignored

the valuation of a random number of put options an application to agricultural price supports we show that the u s agricultural price support system and certain other government insurance programs can be interpreted as the provision of a random number of put op tions to program beneficiaries because the number of puts being supplied is random the value of the guarantees is no longer given by the standard black scholes put option for mula this paper uses the contingent claims methodology of modern finance theory to derive an appropriate valuation formula for such programs we estimate the value to farmers of agricultural price supports for several commodities covered by the u s agricultural price support system our results indicate that the current system raises the ex ante value of some crops by as much as 9 percent the method of valuation is applicable to other forms of government guarantees as well such as exchange rate insurance and export subsidy guarantees

grain exports and the causes of china s great famine 1959 1961 county level evidence abstract this study quantitatively evaluates the relative importance of different causes of china s great famine especially for the importance of grain exports we exploit county level over time variations in crop specialization patterns to construct bartik style measures of export shocks using county level panel data from 1955 to 1963 we regress death rates on the bartik export measures with county and province year fixed effects as well as time varying effects of county level observables we use weather shocks to instrument for output and consumption the regression results suggest that increases in grain exports substantially increase death rates this effect is larger in counties that are further from railways and with fewer local chinese communist party members to examine the relative importance of different mechanisms we also estimate the effects of the procurement policy the determinants of grain output and the relationship between death rates and county level average caloric consumption during the famine period the counterfactual experiments indicate that the fall in agriculture production the increase in procurement partly driven by grain exports and the increasingly progressive and inflexible procurement policy collectively increased the number of excess deaths where no single factor dominates in particular grain exports explain 15 percent of excess deaths which is one fourth of the effect of the increase in procurement rates between 1957 and 1959

irreversible abatement investment under cost uncertainties tradable emission permits and emissions charges abstract a major concern with tradable emission permits is that stochastic permit prices may reduce a firm s incentive to invest in abatement capital or technologies relative to other policies such as a fixed emissions charge however under efficient permit trading the permit price uncertainty is caused by abatement cost uncertainties which affect investment under both permit and charge policies we develop a rational expectations general equilibrium model of permit trading and irreversible abatement investment to show how cost uncertainties affect investment under permits we compare the resulting investment incentive with that under charges after controlling for the assumption that random shocks affect the abatement cost linearly we find that firms investment incentive decreases in cost uncertainties but more so under emissions charges than under permits therefore tradable permits in fact may help maintain firms investment incentive under uncertainty

taxes and subsidies in the input output model this paper reexamines metzler s analysis of the effects of taxes and subsidies on the competitive supply prices of output in leontiefs system it will be shown that metzler s conclusions are valid even if one removes the assumptions made by metzler and that allen s conclusion concerning the ad valorem tax is false we present some interesting properties of leontiefs system and also provide a theorem on metzler s matrix proving it and deriving some useful properties on the inverse matrix of the input output model

a competitive carbon emissions scheme with hybrid fiscal incentives the evidence from a taxi industry abstract as two major approaches to reduce carbon emissions command and control instruments and market based carbon trading systems have their own weaknesses our paper first proposes a type of endogenous equilibrium methodology to dynamically derive the industrial carbon emissions standards at the equilibrium the sum of all carbon assets and liabilities is zero in the considered industry moreover the standards fall over time with low carbon technological advance most importantly combining pigou s and coase s ideas we construct a fiscal instrument accounting for both carbon taxes and allowances based on the dynamically improved emissions standards and carbon trading prices this no revenue for government method implements a self operated ecology for carbon trading market finally considering the waterloo recession of carbon prices we introduce an adjustment factor into the model which generates a negative feedback mechanism with carbon prices to support our idea we present the application to beijing taxi industry in detail and raise relative policy implications based on the evidence

searching for an optimal rotation age for forest stand management under stochastic log prices due to rapid change in timber prices in the japanese market most likely affected by imported timber from countries such as the u s canada and the nordic countries the domestic forest managers have been facing a large degree of future price uncertainty because of this it becomes necessary to take the future price uncertainty into account within the forest management framework in this paper the continuous time stochastic process i e the geometric brownian motion has been used to model the log price process the binomial option pricing approximation was then applied to value the sugi cryptomeria japonica and hinoki chamaecyparis obtusa forested land under stochastic log prices in order to search for an optimal rotation age our experiments with the proposed two state stochastic dynamic programming model showed that when the current log price is high enough to cover all costs an optimal rotation age from the stochastic price and deterministic price models coincides although the total expected present net value from management activities differs also it was shown that as the current log price decreases an optimal rotation age derived from the stochastic price model becomes longer than that from the deterministic price model if the current log price further decreases then forest management will be abandoned and the forest stand will be converted into alternative uses

can openness mitigate the effects of weather shocks evidence from india s famine era transformation of countries throughout history rural citizens in developing countries today however remain highly exposed to fluctua tions in the weather this exposure affects the incomes these citizens earn and the prices of the foods they eat recent work has documented the significant mortality stress that rural house holds face in times of adverse weather robin burgess olivier deschenes dave donaldson and michael greenstone 2009 masayuki kudamatsu torsten persson and david stromberg 2009 famines times of acutely low nominal agricultural income and acutely high food prices are an extreme manifestation of this mapping from weather to death lilian c a knowles 1924 describes these events as agricultural lockouts where both food sup plies and agricultural employment on which the bulk of the rural population depends plummet the result is catastrophic with widespread hun ger and loss of life though now confined to the world s poor est countries food shortages and famines were features of most preindustrial societies over time there has been intense debate over what role openness to trade in food might play in

combining price and quantity controls to mitigate global climate change abstract uncertainty about compliance costs causes otherwise equivalent price and quantity controls to behave differently and leads to divergent welfare consequences although most of the debate on global climate change policy has focused on quantity controls due to their political appeal this paper argues that price controls are more efficient simulations based on a stochastic computable general equilibrium model indicate that the expected welfare gain from the optimal price policy is five times higher than the expected gain from the optimal quantity policy an alternative hybrid policy combines both the political appeal of quantity controls with the efficiency of prices using an initial distribution of tradeable permits to set a quantitative target but allowing additional permits to be purchased at a fixed trigger price even sub optimal hybrid policies offer dramatic efficiency improvements over otherwise standard quantity controls for example a 50 trigger price per ton of carbon converts the 3 trillion expected loss associated with a simple 1990 emission target to a 150 billion gain these results suggest that a hybrid policy is an attractive alternative to either a pure price or quantity system

on the long run efficiency of auctioned vs free permits abstract when marketable permits affect the entry exit decisions of competitive firms the efficient proportion of auctioned vs free permits depends on the pollutant s nature all permits should be auctioned for global pollutants and some should be free for local pollutants

the great leap forward anatomy of a central planning disaster the great leap forward disaster characterized by a collapse in grain production and a widespread famine in china between 1959 and 1961 is found attributable to a systemic failure in central planning wishfully expecting a great leap in agricultural productivity from collectivization the chinese government accelerated its aggressive industrialization timetable grain output fell sharply as the government diverted agricultural resources to industry and imposed an excessive grain procurement burden on peasants leaving them with insufficient calories to sustain labor productivity our analysis shows that 61 percent of the decline in output is attributable to the policies of resource diversion and excessive procurement

option valuation of claims on real assets the case of offshore petroleum leases this paper extends financial option theory by developing a methodology for the valuation of claims on a real asset an offshore petroleum lease several theoretical and practical problems not present in applying option pricing theory to financial assets are addressed most importantly we show the necessity of combining option pricing techniques with a model of equilibrium in the market for the underlying asset petroleum reserves the advantages of this approach over conventional discounted cash flow techniques are emphasized the methodological development provides important insights for both company behavior and government policy promising empirical results are reported

optimal regulation of eutrophying lakes fjords and rivers in the presence of threshold effects eutrophication is a biological process that has an unfavorable economic impact on the economic value of the water basins it affects eutrophication depends on thresholds effects and optimal policies for the regulation of eutrophication must take this into account such optimal policies are derived in the present article by utilizing a novel technique in optimal control theory this technique facilitates a proper analysis of deterministic stock pollutants with thresholds effects a topic it is argued has been poorly understood in the literature copyright 2001 oxford university press

regime shifts and management regime shifts are substantial reorganizations in system structure functions and feedbacks which can lead to changes in the provision of ecosystem services with significant impacts on human well being recent research has documented cases of regime shifts in local and regional systems and there is mounting concern about regime shifts of global significance in this paper we discuss management of social ecological systems in light of the potential for regime shift management that increases system resilience and lowers the probability of regime shifts is beneficial when regime shifts are likely to reduce human well being it may not always be possible to avoid harmful regime shifts so building capacity to adapt should a regime shift occur is beneficial too adaptive management can help reduce uncertainty about the likelihood of regime shifts how this likelihood can be affected by management action and the impact of regime shifts on well being linking scientific understanding with decision making is important but distributional consequences can impede decision making and action

taxes and quotas for a stock pollutant with multiplicative uncertainty we compare taxes and quotas when firms and the regulator have asymmetric information about the slope of firms abatement costs damages are caused by a stock pollutant we calibrate the model using cost and damage estimates of greenhouse gasses taxes dominate quotas as with additive uncertainty this model with multiplicative uncertainty allows us to compare expected stock levels under the two policies and to investigate the importance of stock size and the magnitude of uncertainty on the policy ranking

revisiting the case for intensity targets better incentives and less uncertainty for developing countries abstract in the debate on post kyoto global climate policy intensity targets which set a maximum amount of emissions per gdp figure as prominent alternative to kyoto style absolute emission targets especially for developing countries this paper re examines the case for intensity targets by critically assessing several of its properties namely i reduction of cost uncertainty ii reduction of hot air iii compatibility with international emissions trading iv incentive to decouple carbon emissions and economic output decarbonization and v use as a substitute for banking borrowing relying on simple analytical models it is shown that the effect on cost uncertainty is ambiguous and depends on parameter values and that the same holds for the risk of hot air that the intensity target distorts international emissions trading that despite potential asymmetries in the choice of abatement technology between absolute and intensity target the incentive for a lasting transformation of the energy system is not necessarily stronger under the latter and finally that only a well working intensity target could substitute banking borrowing to some extent but also vice versa overall the results suggest that due to the increased complexity and the potentially only modest benefits of an intensity target absolute targets remain a robust choice for a cautious policy maker

famines and economics famines have happened with and without crop failures or wars but they invariably entail a collapse in the command over food of vulnerable subgroups within a society whether through loss of endowment or a contraction in the amount of food that can be acquired from given endowments thus economic analysis can help understand famines viewed as tragic aperiodic magnifications of normal market and governmental failures recent literature in economics and other fields has reflected this change in the conceptualization of famines and it has come with policy implications for famine relieve and prevention

food availability entitlements and the chinese famine of 1959 61 food availability decline and sen s entitlement are two leading approaches in understanding causes of famine previous research based on case studies has given independent support to each approach this paper analyses the chinese famine of 1959 61 by considering jointly the urban bias and the decline in food availability as causes we find that both factors contributed significantly to the increase in death rates during this famine to our knowledge this paper is the first econometric study to assess the importance of famine causes using the entitlement approach

sensitivity of energy system investments to policy regulation changes too many too fast abstract in this paper we argue that the interaction of energy policy regulations in the european electricity sector may be described by the slow fast class of dynamical systems such systems may exhibit drastic changes in their dynamics known as bifurcations one important being the so called blue sky catastrophe once reaching such a state the slow system becomes unresponsive to the changes in the fast system for the energy policy nexus this translates into the energy system becoming unresponsive to policy interventions leading to a freeze in the system dynamics application of this result allows us to argue that caution is needed when updating economic policies to achieve a faster transition towards a low carbon energy supply structure to avoid this risk the policy design should be aimed at long term incentive structures with less frequent but more consistent interventions

the causes of famine abstract this article argues that sen s theory of famine will lead to the wrong diagnosis and the wrong remedies for famine and will therefore worsen the situation his analysis of the bengal famine is a case in point it is based on unreliable and inaccurate statistics even the statistics he does use contradict his thesis his explanatory hypotheses are shown to be theoretically and factually wrong the actions of the bengal government of 1943 are looked at in the light of sen s recommendations

incentives for advanced pollution abatement technology at the industry level an evaluation of policy alternatives abstract in this research we evaluate the incentive effects of five environmental policy instruments to promote the development and adoption of advanced pollution abatement technology in a heterogenous industry from most to least incentive the policy instruments can be rank ordered as follows i auctioned permits ii emissions taxes and subsidies iii issued marketable permits iv performance standards including performance standards in this list necessitates the assumption that they are differentiated between heterogeneous firms before the technology adoption in a way which replicates the initial emissions control distribution of the efficient incentive based instruments with the starting point normalized in this fashion the instrument rankings are invariant with respect to the size of firms the size of the industry or the industry s abatement cost structure

futures markets and production decisions this paper investigates the use of futures prices in making production decisions we derive a preference independent production rule for firms that face both demand and production uncertainty this rule is compared to a simple marginal cost equals future price rule which previously has been suggested for firms with deterministic output data for agricultural producers are used to examine the importance of output uncertainty in the determination of the proper production rule our analysis suggests that for many crops the simple rule is sufficiently accurate to be a useful guide to production

rushing the impatient allowance reserves and the time profile of low carbon investments postponing the issue date of allowances in a cap and trade scheme by e g a reserve mechanism impacts the time profile of low carbon investments if the postponement constrains intertemporal arbitrage short term investments increase but long term investments are deterred this effect aggravates the shortage of long term investments at least partially attributed to firms impatience the cancellation of allowances agreed for phase iv of the eu ets is suitable to counteract the negative effects of cap neutral postponement on long term investments by making the reserve redundant all effects crucially depend on how firms form expectations about future allowance prices

the equilibrium valuation of risky discrete cash flows in continuous time this paper values a contingent claim to discrete stochastic cash flows generated by a poisson arrival process with a randomly varying intensity parameter in the most general case both the size and the arrival intensity of cash flows may correlate wih state variables in a continuous time economy assuming the conditions of an intertemporal capital aset pricing model solutions for the value of the contingent claim can be found using various techniques the paper suggests immediate applications to the valuation of insurance contracts the decision to build a firm with unknown future investment opportunities and the pricing of mortgage backed securities

pricing behavior of the budget constrained public enterprise abstract by assuming that a budget constrained multiproduct public enterprise chooses prices with the goal of maximizing its budget its revenue or its output specific pricing rules can be derived rather than overstating demand elasticities and then pricing like a monopolist as a budget constrained welfare maximizing firm would do the enterprise pursuing one of these alternative goals is shown to understate marginal cost and then price like a monopolist non optimal price discrimination and even cross subsidization may result the outcome tends to be more perverse when statutory entry barriers protect some markets of the enterprise in its pricing the u s postal service has shown some of the signs of such other than welfare maximizing pricing behavior

innovation in pollution control comparisons of the various institutional arrangements for controlling pollutant emissions from individual sources effluent fees effluent control subsidies marketable permits and direct command and control regulation have usually focused on their static efficiency properties and institutional feasibility e g dales 1968 zerbe 1970 baumol and oates 1975 kneese and schultze 1975 marin 1978 mills and white 1978 spence and weitzman 1978 russell 1979 a relatively neglected area has been the study of how each arrangement influences innovation in pollution control a few studies e g kneese and schultze 1975 marin 1978 mills and white 1978 russell 1979 have casually claimed that the control methods that rely on economic incentives provide superior incentives for innovation but there have been few systematic studies of the question this paper provides a simple model of pollution control innovation by a profitmaximizing polluter who is subject to the various control methods the consequences of the methods will be explored in three major contexts first we assume that the polluter and the innovation is a small enough part of the overall pollution problem so that none of the important marginal conditions are changed by the innovation second we assume that the polluter and the innovation are important enough so that marginal conditions are changed by the innovations but that the governmental authority determining pollution control incentives or levels fails to make the appropriate adjustments third we again assume that the innovation causes marginal conditions to change but in this case the governmental authority makes the appropriate adjustments we use the term ratcheting to describe this last phenomenon in all cases we assume that the innovating polluter correctly predicts the reactions of the governmental authority and bases his innovation decisions on that prediction a profit maximizing entrepreneur would normally be expected to adopt any innovation that promised gains present discounted value to him in excess of initial

policy interactions risk and price formation in carbon markets carbon pricing is an important mechanism for providing companies with incentives to invest in carbon abatement price formation in carbon markets involves a complex interplay between policy targets dynamic technology costs and market rules carbon pricing may under deliver investment due to r d externalities requiring additional policies which themselves affect market prices also abatement costs depend on the extent of technology deployment due to learning by doing this paper introduces an analytical framework based on marginal abatement cost mac curves with the aim of providing an intuitive understanding of the key dynamics and risk factors in carbon markets the framework extends the usual static mac representation of the market to incorporate policy interactions and some technology cost dynamics the analysis indicates that supporting large scale deployment of mature abatement technologies suppresses the marginal cost of abatement sometimes to zero whilst increasing total abatement costs however support for early stage r d may reduce both total abatement cost and carbon price risk an important aspect of the analysis is in elevating risk management considerations into energy policy formation as the results of the stochastic modelling indicate wide distributions for the emergence of carbon prices and public costs around the policy expectations

factor price uncertainty technology choice and investment delay abstract this paper develops a theory of putty clay investment under factor price uncertainty using a brownian motion framework ex ante the firm faces a choice of technologies that differ by their relative factor intensities but ex post technologies are leontief the presence of competing technologies and factor price uncertainty can cause delay of profitable investments for a monopolist firm facing a one time investment decision furthermore uncertainty can cause an existing firm to wait for more extreme operating cost differentials before switching technologies these delays in investment are present even without considering the effect of uncertainty on the firm s choice of scale

pricing inefficiency under profit regulation rate of return regulation of a profit seeking firm invites two kinds of distortion 1 inputs may not be chosen efficiently to produce given levels of output and 2 the output levels may not be chosen efficiently most attention has been accorded the first of these the technical input distortion it can even be controlled at least in principle under particular goals and by alternative forms of profit regulation we focus here on the second distortion the matter of inefficient output levels caused by nonoptimal relative prices for multiple outputs our approach is to present second best welfare maximizing prices and then see whether firms will adopt them when seeking goals other than welfare goals such as profit sales cost or output and when subject to various constraints which represent profit regulation over a range of possible goals and forms of profit constraint we find pricing efficiency is difficult to achieve by pursuing a maximum sum of profits per unit of capital or of cost pricing efficiency can be approached but the promise of that remedy is limited inducing reasonably efficient relative prices in a multiproduct regulated firm thus is seen as a difficult task that deserves considerably more attention than it has received

timing and commitment of environmental policy adoption of new technology and repercussions on r d we investigate the interplay between environmental policy incentives to adoptnew technology and repercussions on r d we study a model where a monopolistic upstream firm engages in r d and sells advanced abatement technology to polluting downstream firms we consider four different timing and commitment regimes of environmental tax and permit policies ex post taxation or issuing permits interim commitment to a tax rate a quota of permits after observing r d success but before adoption and finally two types of ex antecommitment before r d activity one with a unique tax rate quota of permits the other one with a menu of tax rates permit quotas we study the second best tax and permit policies and rank these with respect to welfare in particular we find that commitment to a menu of tax rate dominates all other policy regimes

large demographic shocks and small changes in the marriage market between 1958 and 1961 china experienced one of the worse famines in her history birth rates fell during these years and recovered immediately afterwards the famine also adversely affected the health of these cohorts this paper provides non parametric estimates of the total effects of the famine on the marital behaviour of famine affected cohorts in the rural areas of sichuan and anhui these reduced from estimates incorporate general equilibrium and heterogeneous treatment effects two important components of equilibrium marital behaviour next the paper uses a structural model of the marriage market the choo siow model to decompose observed marital outcomes into quantity and quality effects of the famine the structural estimates show that the famine substantially reduced the marital attractiveness of the famine born cohort the conclusion is that the small observed changes in marriage rates of the famine born cohorts are due to a substantial decline in their marital attractiveness controlling for changes in educational attainment does not change the conclusion

estimating the long term impact of the great chinese famine 1959 61 on modern china summary this research analyzes the long term impact of the great chinese famine 1959 61 on the modern chinese economy and shows that areas in which famine was most severe have significantly lower per capita gdp today the great famine coincided with the chinese communist party s industrialization and agriculture modernization plan the great leap forward glf to remove omitted variable and endogeneity problems a unique relationship between the communist army s takeover of mainland china 1946 50 and the degree to which subnational leadership was willing to enforce glf policies to the detriment of rural citizens well being is exploited via instrumental variable iv estimation specifically areas liberated later had a higher density of zealous administrators by the start of the glf in 1958 and in turn experienced stricter enforcement of glf policies which resulted in greater famine severity as a result this research finds a relatively pronounced impact of politically triggered famine captured by the iv approach which strengthens the growing outlook that famine is a consequence of inadequate food entitlement as opposed to being simply food shortages

time to build option value and investment decisions abstract investment decisions and outlays are often made sequentially for example the rate at which construction proceeds is usually flexible and can be adjusted with the arrival of new information traditional discounted cash flow methods which treat the pattern of investment as fixed ignore this flexibility and understate the value of the project this paper uses contingent claims analysis to derive optimal decision rules and to value such investments we determine the effects of time to build opportunity cost and uncertainty on the investment decision for reasonable parameter values we show how a simple npv rule can lead to gross errors

moving off the farm land institutions to facilitate structural transformation and agricultural productivity growth in china agriculture has made major contributions to china s economic growth and poverty reduction but the literature has rarely focused on the institutional factors that might underpin such structural transformation and productivity this paper aims to fill that gap drawing on an 8 year panel of 1 200 households in six key provinces it explores the impact of government land reallocations and formal land use certificates on agricultural productivity growth as well as the likelihood of households to exit from agriculture or send family members to the non farm sector it finds that land tenure insecurity measured by the history of past land reallocations discourages households from quitting agriculture the recognition of land rights through formal certificates encourages the temporary migration of rural labor both factors have a large impact on productivity at about 30 percent each mainly by encouraging market based land transfers a sustained increase in non agricultural opportunities will likely reinforce the importance of secure land tenure which is a precondition for successful structural transformation and continued economic attractiveness of rural areas

environmental regulation with technology adoption learning and strategic behavior we analyze a model of environmental regulation with learning about environmental damages and endogenous choice of emissions abatement technology by a polluting firm we compare environmental policy under discretion in which policy is updated upon learning new information versus under rules in which policy is not updated when investment in abatement technology is made prior to the resolution of uncertainty neither discretion nor rules with either taxes or standards achieve an efficient solution except in special cases when there is little uncertainty rules are superior to discretion because discretionary policy gives the firm an incentive to distort investment in order to influence future regulation however when uncertainty is large discretion is superior to rules because it allows regulation to incorporate new information taxes are superior to standards under discretion regardless of the relative slopes of marginal costs and marginal damages for the case of quadratic abatement costs and damages

prices vs quantities technology choice uncertainty and welfare technological improvements have proven essential in mitigating environmental problems such as climate change depletion of the ozone layer and acid rain while it is well known that price and quantity based regulatory instruments provide different investment levels the effects on the choice between different technologies have received scant attention this paper expands on the prices versus quantities literature by investigating firms technology choice in the face of demand and supply side uncertainty i show that the regulator can not design tradable emissions permits and an emissions tax such that the two regimes are equivalent even in terms of expected values moreover a tax encourages the most flexible abatement technology if and only if stochastic costs and the equilibrium permit price have sufficiently strong positive covariance compared with the variance in consumer demand for the good produced finally the firms technology choices are socially optimal under tradable emissions permits but not under an emissions tax