past as prologue understanding energy use in post 2002 china abstract from 2002 to 2009 china s energy use nearly doubled making it the world s largest emitter of carbon dioxide more than a decade ahead of forecasts why did energy use in china rise so rapidly after 2002 using index decomposition analysis we find that the vast majority of growth in energy consumption in china over the 2000s was due to gdp growth with a small but important amount due to structural change as a result of china s emergence as a net metals exporter changing prices and data anomalies make energy intensity and structural change appear to be more important drivers of energy consumption than they actually were the infamous reversal in energy intensity in china from 2002 to 2004 may simply be an artifact of difficulties in accurately deflating value added about half of the growth in energy consumption in china from 2002 to 2007 was driven by heavy industry using structural decomposition analysis we find that growth in heavy industrial output was due primarily to growth in construction and equipment investment with a small amount due to an increase in net metal exports in tandem these two findings suggest that the primary driver of energy consumption in china after 2002 was an acceleration of the country s investment dominated model of gdp growth without rebalancing the economy toward consumption there are limits to what improvements in energy conversion efficiency and end use energy efficiency can achieve in moderating growth in china s energy use

the relationship between energy consumption structure economic structure and energy intensity in china this paper investigates the long run equilibrium relationships temporal dynamic relationships and causal relationships between energy consumption structure economic structure and energy intensity in china time series variables over the periods from 1980 to 2006 are employed in empirical tests cointegration tests suggest that these three variables tend to move together in the long run in addition granger causality tests indicate that there is a unidirectional causality running from energy intensity to economic structure but not vice versa impulse response analysis provides reasonable evidences that one shock of the three variables will cause the periods of destabilized that followed however the impact of the energy consumption structure shock on energy intensity and the impact of the economic structure shock on energy consumption structure seem to be rather marginal the findings have significant implications from the point of view of energy conservation and economic development in order to decrease energy intensity chinese government must continue to reduce the proportion of coal in energy consumption increase the utilization efficiency of coal and promote the upgrade of economic structure furthermore a full analysis of factors that may relate to energy intensity e g energy consumption structure economic structure should be conducted before making energy policies

liberalization of capital movements and of the domestic financial system this paper analyzes the dynamic impact of a joint liberalization of capital movements and of the domestic financial sector both a simultaneous and a sequential liberalization are examined in an overlapping generations model with a q theory of investment a liberalization generally leads to an initial period of capital inflows followed by capital outflows it also increases investment and causes an overshooting in share prices furthermore the interest rate level before a liberalization will usually not indicate the direction of net capital flows copyright 1992 by the london school of economics and political science

account for sector heterogeneity in china s energy consumption sector price indices vs gdp deflator abstract a common practice in decomposition analyses is to deflate output indicators to purge the impact of inflation by using a general deflator this practice fails to account for sector heterogeneity and can be hazardous although the general identified patterns are largely correct the calculated magnitudes can be misleading or even wrongly signed instead it is strongly recommended that sector heterogeneity is accounted for by using individual sector price indices for all relevant sectors instead of one general gdp deflator this paper analyzes this advanced decomposition using chinese data and compares to the usual method of using only one deflator it is found that while most differences are only of quantitative quality some show even a qualitative difference furthermore the rising energy intensity in the early 2000s which has been discussed by previous studies vanishes completely

energy embodied in the international trade of china an energy input output analysis abstract growing international trade has not only positively affected the people s republic of china s china s economic development but also expanded the exportation of energy embodied in goods during their production this energy flow out will pose risks to china s rational utilization of natural resources as well as environmental protection in this paper we evaluate the energy embodied in goods produced in china during 1992 2005 and use input output structural decomposition analysis to identify five key factors causing the changes of energy embodied in exports direct primary energy efficiency primary energy consumption structure structure of intermediate inputs structure of exports and scale of exports for the three sub periods of 1992 1997 1997 2002 and 2002 2005 results show that china is a net exporter of energy and the energy embodied in exports tends to increase over time the expanding total volume of exports and increasing exports of energy intensive goods tend to enlarge the energy embodied in exports within all three sub periods but these driving forces were offset by a considerable improvement of energy efficiency and changes in primary energy consumption structure from 1992 to 2002 and the effects of structure of intermediate input only in the sub period from 1992 to 1997 from 2002 to 2005 the sharp augmentation of energy embodied in exports was driven by all the five factors our research has practical implications for the chinese economy results of this study suggest that the energy embodied in trade should receive special attentions in energy policies design to limit the energy resource out flow and pollution generation

the demand for liquid assets corporate saving and international capital flows the recent period of capital outflows from emerging economies has coincided with an increase in their corporate saving in this paper we model corporate saving as a demand for liquid assets by credit constrained firms in a dynamic open economy macroeconomic model we find that the implications of this model are very different from standard models because the demand for foreign bonds is a complement to domestic investment rather than a substitute we show that this complementarity is at work when an emerging economy is on its convergence path or when it has a higher tfp growth rate this framework is consistent with a number of stylized facts found in high growth high investment emerging economies

interaction between output efficiency and environmental efficiency evidence from the textile industry in jiangsu province china environmental efficiency improvement has played a crucial role in the theory and practice of stimulating clean production this paper analyzes the interaction between environmental efficiency and output efficiency particularly whether they reinforce each other or compete with each other on the basis of a data set of 137 firms in the textile industry in china s jiangsu province in the first stage generalized data envelopment analysis is applied to calculate efficiency measures of energy waste water waste gas soot and output efficiency taking capital labor water and energy as inputs industrial output value as desirable output and waste water discharges waste gas and soot emissions as undesirable outputs in the second stage analysis a structural equation model with latent variables is applied to analyze the interaction between the latent variable environmental efficiency measured by the four observed environmental indicators and output efficiency taking also into account the endogenous variable profit the main outcomes of the structural equation model are the following firstly environmental efficiency negatively impacts on profit while profit positively impacts on environmental efficiency in a similar vein output efficiency is found to depress profit while profit increases output efficiency thirdly environmental efficiency has a positive impact on output efficiency while there is no effect of output efficiency on environmental efficiency fourthly taxes impair a firm s output efficiency from the findings it follows that a swap of general taxes for an energy tax is likely to improve both output efficiency and energy efficiency the latter outcome implies a win win situation which will facilitate the further implementation and adoption of environmental policy finally the paper illustrates the applicability of structural equation modeling in efficiency analysis

why did the energy intensity fall in china s industrial sector in the 1990s the relative importance of structural change and intensity change there have been a variety of studies investigating the relative importance of structural change and real intensity change to the change in china s energy consumption in the 1980s however no detailed analysis to date has been done to examine whether or not the increased energy efficiency trend in the 1980s still prevailed in the 1990s this article has filled this gap by investigating the change in energy consumption in china s industrial sector in the 1990s based on the data sets of value added and end use energy consumption for the 29 industrial subsectors and using the newly proposed decomposition method of giving no residual our results clearly show that the overwhelming contributor to the decline in industrial energy use in the 1990s was the decline in real energy intensity indicating that the trend of real energy intensity declines in the 1980s at the 2 digit level was still maintained in the 1990s this conclusion still holds even if we lower the growth rate dramatically in line with the belief that the growth rate of china s gdp may be overestimated

north south lending and endogenous domestic capital market inefficiencies abstract we develop an open economy model of intertemporal trade under asymmetric information capital market imperfections are endogenous and depend on a country s stage of economic development relative to the perfect information benchmark north south capital flows are dampened and possibly reversed and world interest rates are lower whereas riskless rates are equalized across borders the domestic loan rate is higher in poorer countries the model can be applied to a number of policy issues including the debt overhang problem the indexation of foreign public debts and the effect of income distribution on growth

what drives the change in china s energy intensity combining decomposition analysis and econometric analysis at the provincial level abstract we employ decomposition analysis and econometric analysis to investigate the driving forces behind china s changing energy intensity using a provincial level panel data set for the period from 1995 to 2009 the decomposition analysis indicates that a all of the provinces except for a few experienced efficiency improvement while around three fourths of the provinces economics became more energy intensive or remained unchanged b consequently the efficiency improvement accounts for more than 90 of china s energy intensity change as opposed to the economic structural change the econometric analysis shows that the rising income plays a significant role in the reduction of energy intensity while the effect of energy price is relatively limited the result may reflect the urgency of deregulating the price and establishing a market oriented pricing system in china s energy sector the implementation of the energy intensity reduction policies in the eleventh five year plan fyp has helped reverse the increasing trend of energy intensity since 2002 although the chinese government intended to change the industry led economic growth pattern it seems that most of the policy effects flow through the efficiency improvement as opposed to the economic structure adjustment more fundamental changes to the economic structure are needed to achieve more sustainable progress in energy intensity reduction

substitution possibilities and determinants of energy intensity for china abstract this paper measures technological change factor demand and inter factor and inter fuel substitutability measures for china we use individual fuel price data and a two stage approach to estimate total factor cost functions and fuel share equations both inter factor and inter fuel substitution elasticities are calculated and the change in energy intensity is decomposed into its driving forces the results suggest that energy is substitutable for capital regionally and for labor nationally capital substitutes for energy more easily than labor does energy intensity changes vary by region but the major drivers seem to be budget effect and the adoption of energy intensive technologies which might be embodied in high level energy using exports and sectors capital investment and even old technique and equipment imports whether the trend in rising energy intensity continues will be significant for china and the rest of the world

can market oriented economic reforms contribute to energy efficiency improvement evidence from china since china accelerated its market oriented economic reforms at the end of 1992 its energy intensity has declined 3 6 annually over 1993 2005 however its energy intensity declined 4 2 annually during its first reform period 1979 1992 therefore can we conclude that the accelerated marketization since the end of 1992 has made no contribution to its energy efficiency improvement in order to answer this challenging question we examine the changes of energy own price elasticity as well as the elasticities of substitution between energy and non energy capital and labor in china during the periods of 1979 1992 and 1993 2003 generally in transition or developing economies holding the technology and output level fixed if the energy own price elasticity algebraic value declines or the substitution elasticity between factors rises they will contribute to energy efficiency improvement our empirical study finds that 1 during 1979 1992 the energy own price elasticity is positive 0 285 and capital energy labor energy are both morishima complementary which indicates a distorted energy price and inefficient allocation and 2 during 1993 2003 the own price elasticity for energy is negative 1 236 and capital energy and labor energy are both morishima substitute all factor demands become more elastic and all elasticities of substitution increase the implication is that the accelerated marketization contributes substantially to energy efficiency improvement since 1993 c 2006 elsevier ltd all rights reserved

government expenditure and energy intensity in china the recent economic stimulus package of china has raised growing concern about its potential impact on energy demand and efficiency to what extent does such expansion of government expenditure influence energy intensity this question has not been well answered by the previous research using provincial panel data this paper provides some evidence of a link between government expenditure and energy intensity in china the empirical results demonstrate that the expansion of government expenditure since asian financial crisis has exerted a significant influence on energy intensity an increase in government expenditure in china leads to an increase in energy intensity further analysis compares such relationships in different economic situations the comparison shows that such positive effect of government expenditure remains significant after the alteration in economic situation therefore the results suggest introducing some measures to consolidate china s existing gains in energy efficiency the analysis also explains why the downward trend in energy intensity is reversed in china since 2002

energy intensity and its determinants in china s regional economies abstract this paper contributes to the existing literature as well as policy debates by examining energy intensity and its determinants in china s regional economies the analysis is based on a comprehensive database of china s regional energy balance constructed for this project through its focus on regional china this study extends the existing literature which mainly covers nationwide studies it is found in this paper that energy intensity declined substantially in china the main contributing factor is the improvement in energy efficiency changes in the economic structure have so far affected energy intensity modestly thus there is considerable scope to reduce energy intensity through the structural transformation of the chinese economy in the future

the impact of polycentric development on regional gap of energy efficiency a chinese provincial perspective abstract a reasonable distribution of urban systems is essential for optimizing spatial energy allocation and the quality of economic growth for china this study discusses the impact of the polycentric development on the regional gap of energy efficiency rgee i e difference in energy efficiency levels among cities in the same region in the chinese provincial context by employing a novel method using nighttime lighting data from defense meteorological satellite program s operational linescan system dmsp ols to measure the spatial structure of provinces and stochastic frontier approach sfa to evaluate the total factor energy efficiency our results firstly show that the polycentric development has a narrowing effect on the rgee second they show that the more government intervention can narrow the rgee of a province but being more open having more foreign direct investment fdi and using more coal can widen the rgee of that province meanwhile the level of regional urbanization is shown to have no influence on rgee third they show that the polycentric development has a negative effect on the energy efficiency of large cities but a positive effect on that of small and medium size cities which accordingly narrows the rgee the conclusions of this study not only reveal insights for policies that aim to reduce the rgee but also provide an empirical basis for future urban development strategies in the chinese provincial context

is power generation really the gold measure of the chinese economy a conceptual and empirical assessment abstract amid widespread concern about the quality of the chinese gdp data power generation has become probably the single most cited indicator about the chinese economy other than official statistics for the first time we provide an assessment on the efficacy of power generation as such an indicator using both conceptual and empirical analyses we show that i conceptually it is somewhat misleading to use power generation as coincident indicator to infer the growth rate of gdp due to the change of power intensity ii empirically power generation beats railway cargo and bank loan the two other variables in the li keqiang index as the best predictor in forecasting the chinese gdp over the full sample however this superiority holds mainly during period of sharp change i e the financial crisis period but not when the economy is relatively stable especially the current new normal period these two findings place important caveats on the common trust we have in power generation as an influential variable for measuring the chinese economy

can foreign direct investment harness energy consumption in china a time series investigation abstract this study assesses the long run relationship and short run dynamics between foreign direct investment fdi and energy consumption in china applying the bounds testing approach to annual data from 1982 to 2012 we find that a stable fdi energy nexus exists in the long run and a 1 increase in fdi reduces energy consumption by 0 21 however this study shows a positive association between fdi and energy consumption in the short run attributing to the dominance of the scale effect our results remain robust to different measurements and estimators it is suggested that the chinese government shall support the inward fdi in the tertiary and energy sectors and strengthen local absorptive capacities to fully internalize fdi related knowledge spillovers in energy conservation

the lmdi approach to decomposition analysis a practical guide in a recent study ang energy policy 32 2004 compared various index decomposition analysis methods and concluded that the logarithmic mean divisia index method is the preferred method since the literature on the method tends to be either too technical or specific for most potential users this paper provides a practical guide that includes the general formulation process summary tables for easy reference and examples

the future natural gas consumption in china based on the lmdi stirpat plsr framework and scenario analysis abstract due to the growing pollution concerns in china there have been major efforts to design interrelated environmental protection policies as the policy of reducing coal consumption is implemented china s natural gas consumption is expected to commensurately rise such a trend may lead to the significant impacts on china s energy security and the global gas market this paper empirically investigates the relationship between the natural gas consumption and influencing factors in a comprehensive lmdi stirpat plsr framework it is found that fossil energy structure and non clean energy structure are the most important factors followed by urbanization per capita gdp industrialization and industrial energy intensity and then these factors from lmdi decomposition are innovatively divided into economic development and cleaning indicators when using scenario analysis to forecast china s natural gas consumption the prediction results suggest that economic development with high clean energy system would make a significant increase in gas consumption a commensurate increase in demand even the system of economic energy under scenario of low economic development and low clean as china would depend on gas imports to meet this demand there may be a serious supply shortage by 2020 therefore the government should consider the future energy security issue in making economic and environmental policies

energy intensity trend explained for sao paulo state abstract a sectorial analysis and a logarithmic mean divisia index lmdi technique are used in this paper to decompose the energy intensity of the state of sao paulo from 1995 to 2012 into the economic activity effect and the energy efficiency effect this study contributes the following observations 1 the world energy intensity has decreased steadily but the energy intensity of the sao paulo state has been volatile and has declined 2 3 since 1995 2 in the period of study declining energy intensity of the primary and tertiary sectors was observed in contrast the energy intensity of the secondary sector has been gradually increasing 3 the energy efficiency effect was the primary driver of energy intensity change through 2007 and the economic activity effect subsequently had an increasingly more important role in the change 4 the economic structure remained constant until 2004 when the services sector shift became more significant it is hypothesized that the increasing energy intensity from 2005 to 2009 was caused by the growth of inefficient sugarcane bagasse consumption

organizing a public ecosystem service economy for sustaining biodiversity abstract the core question this paper attempts to address is how social organization needs to respond to biodiversity features and functions in order to achieve its sustainable use scholars have suggested that the governance of complex systems should be dispersed across multiple centers of authority and that any regulative system needs as much variety in the actions that it can take as exists in the system it is regulating further it has been argued that complex ecosystems and biodiversity can successfully be maintained by complex polycentric multi layered governance systems which have a variety of response mechanisms but how should polycentric governance of biodiversity be organized borrowing from the organization of public economies in metropolitan areas we distinguish between production and provision of public ecosystem services and suggest the direction of institutional change for the organization of a public ecosystem service economy if the market alone cannot solve the allocation of public ecosystem services economic efficiency criteria based on hypothetical markets are not sufficient therefore we suggest design principles which go beyond economic efficiency and provide examples of the emergence of polycentric governance from an ethiopian coffee forest conservation project

effects of urbanization on energy efficiency in china new evidence from short run and long run efficiency models abstract energy efficiency in china has been the cause for increasing concern for national and local sustainable development due to rapid economic development and large scale energy consumption using panel data of 30 provinces between 1997 and 2016 in china the measurement of energy efficiency is disentangled and the effects of urbanization on different types of energy efficiency are explored first the measurement of energy efficiency is disentangled with long run and short run efficiencies derived results of energy efficiency scores highlight the predominant status of long run inefficiency is low and that disparate energy efficiency is present between provinces second the effects of urbanization were found to be significantly negative on short run long run and overall energy efficiency comparatively the effect of urbanization on long run efficiency was shown to have recently grown implying an urgent call for energy conservation during rapid urbanization finally this study outlines broader implications and suggests policies to improve energy efficiency here application of energy conservation technology industrial structure upgrading and efficiency information disclosure to urban residents are thought to be smart ways to improve energy efficiency

energy conservation and emissions reduction in china progress and prospective abstract energy conservation ec has been taken as basic state policy in china for more than 20 years and china achieves 3 9 annual energy saving from 1980 to 2005 in 2006 china central government firstly set up a binding target of reducing gdp energy intensity by 20 in its 11th five year plan fyp at the end of 2010 19 1 reduction in energy intensity has been achieved which is 95 of the target and means 608 million tons stand coal equivalence sce saved 1510 million tons co 2 emission reduced 300 billion rmb saving in energy bill and vast saving in infrastructure investment this paper is systematical review and prospective analysis on energy policy issue in china review on policy evolution and progress of ec and emission reduction er in china during the 11th fyp periods is presented in detail outlook of energy demand and supply into 2050 is presented and the roadmap to realize sustainable energy development is drafted to set the framing constraints for china s energy policy options rationality and feasibility analysis on newly formulated 12th fyp ec and er target is also addressed then lessons from the 11th fyp periods are drawn and factors underlying and limiting the policy formulation and implementation are discussed in details to probe the policy predicament and solutions finally policy suggestions are proposed for long term successful implementation of ec and er in china

china s ongoing energy efficiency drive origins progress and prospects abstract in 2004 china s government launched a vigorous programme to reverse the trend of rising national energy intensity and to reduce intensity by 20 over the period 2006 2010 the aim of this paper is to examine this programme in the context of nearly 30 years of measures to enhance energy efficiency in china and thus to evaluate the likelihood that today s policies will yield improvements over a longer period the country achieved a sustained decline of energy intensity in the period 1980 2001 but this trend was reversed in 2002 this reversal arose from a shift in the structure of the economy to more energy intensive industries and from a decline in the rate of technical innovation the measures taken since 2003 have been directed principally at energy intensive industries but have also addressed other sectors of the economy though the energy intensity target for the year 2010 may be achieved greater efforts will be needed to address a number of constraints which include the reluctance to use economic and financial instruments the dependency of energy policy on industrial and social policies the nature of political decision making and of public administration a shortage of skills and social attitudes to energy

does the level of energy intensity matter in the effect of energy consumption on the growth of transition economies evidence from dynamic panel threshold analysis abstract this study investigates whether the effect of energy consumption on economic growth differs by the level of energy intensity we employ an advanced dynamic panel threshold regression model to test for the threshold level of energy intensity that has an asymmetrical energy consumption effect on economic growth we consider 12 commonwealth of independent states countries over the period 1991 2013 the estimated panel threshold regression model suggests 0 44 as the threshold level of energy intensity energy consumption above this level significantly retards economic growth whereas energy consumption below the level is found to have a statistically significant positive effect on economic growth thus when the threshold level of energy intensity one of the important indicators of energy efficiency is exceeded energy consumption significantly hinders growth if policy makers pay more attention to energy intensity while formulating new energy policies substantial gains can be achieved in low energy intensity environments

saving growth and investment a macroeconomic analysis using a panel of countries this paper provides a descriptive analysis of the long and short run correlations among saving investment and growth rates for 123 countries over the period 1961 94 three results are robust across data sets and estimation methods i lagges saving rates are positively related to investment rates ii investment rates granger cause growth rates with a negative sign iii growth rates granger cause investment with a positive sign

what induced china s energy intensity to fluctuate 1997 2006 abstract china is the second largest energy consumer in the world during 1997 2002 china s energy intensity declined by 33 however it rose by 10 7 over 2003 2005 and declined by 1 2 in 2006 what induced china s energy intensity to fluctuate so drastically industry accounts for approximately 70 of the total energy consumption in china in this paper we decompose china s industrial energy intensity changes between 1997 and 2002 into sectoral structural effects and efficiency effects measured by sectoral energy intensities at two digit level and including the shifts of product mix in the sub sector or firm level using tornqvist and sato vartia index methods the results show that in this period efficiency effects possibly contributed to a majority of the decline while the contribution from structural effects was less during 2003 2005 the excessive expansion of high energy consuming sub sectors and the high investment ratio were foremost sources of the increasing energy intensity attributed to the government efforts the energy intensity has started to decline slightly since july 2006 in future to save more energy in addition to technical progress china should attach more importance to optimizing its sectoral structure and lowering its investment ratio

decomposition analysis of debt s impact on china s energy consumption abstract debt can influence the energy consumption of private sectors and public agencies by changing their fiscal budget constraints from 1996 to 2016 china has had rapid debt growth and become the second largest borrower in the world additionally china has been the largest energy consumer since 2009 the impact of debt growth on its energy consumption however is not much addressed in the literature using an extended lmdi model we investigate the impact of china s debt on its energy consumption from 1996 to 2016 in a new way the results show that 1 among the closed set of debt related factors and other conventional variables studied private debt per capita makes the strongest contribution to china s energy consumption and population has a moderate impact on the growth of energy consumption 2 energy efficiency improvement output efficiency of government debt debt structure adjustment and increased tertiary industry share are mitigating forces of energy consumption these results provide a new holistic perspective for the chinese government to formulate synergistic policies of risk control and pollution control

the driving forces of china s energy use from 1992 to 2010 an empirical study of input output and structural decomposition analysis abstract the energy consumption in china has accelerated since the early 2000s and china became the largest energy consumer in the world by 2010 to examine the driving forces of china s energy use this paper conducts a structural decomposition analysis based on hybrid input output tables in addition we describe the framework of china s energy system by using two energy flow charts the results show that china s current energy use is investment led demand between 1992 and 2007 the three main final demand categories gross fixed capital formation household consumption and exports contributed approximately one third each to the changes of total energy use in china between 2007 and 2010 however three quarters of energy consumption changes came from investment activity only technological improvement saved approximately five percent of the total energy use annually during the periods of 1992 1997 1997 2002 and 2007 2010 in the period of 2002 2007 however its contribution dropped to only three percent p a due to the rise of the indirect energy requirement coefficient in the construction sector these results suggest that adjusting the final demand structure and improving energy efficiency further will meet china s energy challenges in the future

structural decompositions of energy consumption between 1995 and 2009 evidence from wiod abstract energy is key to achieving sustainable development this paper explicitly distinguishes between the supply side of energy consumption and demand side of energy consumption and investigates the factors that affect the energy consumption across economies using data from the world input output database wiod this paper decomposes the relative changes of energy consumption into intensity effect production structure structural change in final demand total final demand effect and household consumption then it further decomposes production structure into inter industry structural effect and trade effect in intermediate inputs overall energy consumption growth is mainly driven by total final demand 55 04 increase at the world level but can be significantly reduced by intensity effect due to technological change 21 02 decrease at the world level there is heterogeneity of structure related effects across economies and within the same economy in both aspects of energy consumption in addition the trade effect and household effect are relatively small this paper provides an empirical framework for analyzing energy consumption in a globalizing world and suggests tailored and integrated energy policies

growth in the shadow of expropriation we propose a tractable variant of the open economy neoclassical growth model that emphasizes political economy and contracting frictions the political economy frictions involve a preference for immediate spending while the contracting friction is a lack of commitment regarding foreign debt and expropriation we show that the political economy frictions slow an economy s convergence to the steady state due to the endogenous evolution of capital taxation the model rationalizes why openness has different implications for growth depending on the political environment why institutions such as the treatment of capital income evolve over time why governments in countries that grow rapidly accumulate net foreign assets rather than liabilities and why foreign aid may not affect growth

does urbanization drive economic growth decoupled from energy consumption in china s logistics abstract logistics has gradually become a major energy consumer in china along with urbanization and e commerce a better understanding of economic growth decoupled from energy consumption in logistics could relieve the pressure of energy supply and environmental pollution a combined model based on the tapio decoupling model kaya identity and log mean divisia index was proposed to decompose the impact of urbanization into 4 related factors comparative analysis was applied to investigate the similarities of and differences in the urbanization related factors affecting the decoupling state of provinces the main results were as follows 1 weak decoupling was the dominant state of logistics in china during 2007 2016 there were weak decoupling and strong decoupling in most of the observation period in the eastern region while there was no strong decoupling in the central and western regions 2 from the national perspective urbanization related factors had very significant but different impacts population quantity spatial structure and spatial expansion were the key inhibitors while population density was the main contributor 3 from the regional perspective the patterns of urbanization related factors in the three regions were similar population density had a positive but decreasing effect on decoupling in the three regions especially the western region population quantity had an increasing negative effect on decoupling in the three regions especially the central and western regions spatial expansion had an increasing negative effect on decoupling in the eastern and western regions but a decreasing negative effect in the central region and spatial structure had a stable negative effect on the three regions finally some policy implications were proposed

decomposition of energy efficiency and energy saving potential in china a three hierarchy meta frontier approach abstract considering both regional heterogeneity and industrial heterogeneity this paper proposes a three hierarchy meta frontier data envelopment analysis dea to decompose energy efficiency and energy saving potential into three components i e industrial structure regional balance development and management based on this approach the paper then analyses the historical evolution and current status of energy efficiency in china the results show the following 1 from 2001 to 2015 mainland china s energy efficiency increased by a factor of 2 48 primarily because of technological progress and the optimization of its industrial structure 2 nonetheless the current energy efficiency in mainland china remains very low and energy inefficiency is as high as 0 5922 indicating that 59 22 of total energy consumption is invalidly used severe industrial structure inefficiency and regional balance development inefficiency are the two main factors responsible for the very low energy efficiency 3 by promoting industrial restructuring regional balance development and management improvement mainland china is expected to save respectively 13 67 24 54 and 61 73 of its current total invalid energy consumption based on the estimation results this paper formulates strategies to improve energy efficiency and save energy for china s provinces based on their specific situations considering not only the direction of industrial restructuring in both the short and long terms but also the path to improved energy efficiency in addition a brief discussion about the applicability and the preconditions for an application of the multi hierarchy meta frontier approach is given at the end of the paper

volatility and growth credit constraints and the composition of investment abstract how does uncertainty and credit constraints affect the cyclical composition of investment and thereby volatility and growth this paper addresses this question within a model where firms engage in two types of investment a short term one and a long term one which contributes more to productivity growth because it takes longer to complete long term investment has a relatively less cyclical return but it also has a higher liquidity risk the first effect ensures that the share of long term investment to total investment is countercyclical when financial markets are perfect the second implies that this share may turn procyclical when firms face tight credit constraints a novel propagation mechanism thus emerges through its effect on the cyclical composition of investment tighter credit can lead to both higher volatility and lower mean growth evidence from a panel of countries provides support for the model s key predictions

energy productivity and chinese local officials promotions evidence from provincial governors abstract improving energy productivity is one of the most cost effective ways to achieve a sustainable development target the existing literature has shown some factors that have driven the improvement in china s energy productivity however these studies do little to tackle the role of chinese local officials political promotions can be seen as the most important career incentive for chinese local officials hence we intend to study whether energy productivity affects chinese local officials promotions in this paper the data of position changes for the 31 provincial governors during 1978 2012 are utilized we adopted probit models to empirically examine the correlation between provincial governors political promotions and energy productivity the empirical results demonstrate that 1 energy productivity has a significantly positive impact on provincial governors political promotions in china meaning that the provincial governors have the momentum to improve energy productivity and 2 the effect of energy productivity on provincial governors political promotions has evolved dynamically changing along with the transformation of the economic growth mode and the adjustment of the local officials promotion mechanism the results are helpful in understanding the drivers of the improvement in china s energy productivity and provide insightful implications for conducting energy policy in china

total factor energy efficiency in developing countries this paper uses a total factor framework to investigate energy efficiency in 23 developing countries during the period of 1980 2005 we explore the total factor energy efficiency and change trends by applying data envelopment analysis dea window which is capable of measuring efficiency in cross sectional and time varying data the empirical results indicate that botswana mexico and panama perform the best in terms of energy efficiency whereas kenya sri lanka syria and the philippines perform the worst during the entire research period seven countries show little change in energy efficiency over time eleven countries experienced continuous decreases in energy efficiency among five countries witnessing continuous increase in total factor energy efficiency china experienced the most rapid rise practice in china indicates that effective energy policies play a crucial role in improving energy efficiency tobit regression analysis indicates that a u shaped relationship exists between total factor energy efficiency and income per capita

international capital flows and credit market imperfections a tale of two frictions the nancial crisis of 2007 08 has underscored the importance of adverse selection in nancial markets this friction has been mostly neglected by macroeconomic models of nancial imperfections however which have focused almost exclusively on the eects of limited pledgeability in this paper we ll this gap by developing a standard growth model with adverse selection our main results are that by fostering unproductive investment adverse selection i leads to an increase in the economy s equilibrium interest rate and ii it generates a negative wedge between the marginal return to investment and the equilibrium interest rate under nancial integration we show how this translates into excessive capital inows and endogenous cycles we also extend our model to the more general case in which adverse selection and limited pledgeability coexist we conclude that both frictions complement one another and show that limited pledgeability exacerbates the eects of adverse selection

financial development and the instability of open economies this paper introduces a framework for analyzing the role of financial factors as a source of instability in small open economies our basic model is a dynamic open economy model with a tradeable good produced with capital and a country specific factor we also assume that firms face credit constraints with the constraint being tighter at a lower level of financial development a basic implication of this model is that economies at an intermediate level of financial development are more unstable than either very developed or very underdeveloped economies this is true both in the sense that temporary shocks have large and persistent effects and also in the sense that these economies can exhibit cycles thus countries that are going through a phase of financial development may become more unstable in the short run similarly full capital account liberalization may destabilize the economy in economies at an intermediate level of financial development phases of growth with capital inflows are followed by collapse with capital outflows on the other hand foreign direct investment does not destabilize

china s numerical management system for reducing national energy intensity in china the national target for energy intensity reduction when integrated with target disaggregation and information feedback systems constitutes a numerical management system which is a hallmark of modern governance this paper points out the technical weaknesses of china s current numerical management system in the process of target disaggregation the national target cannot be fully disaggregated to local governments sectors and enterprises without omissions at the same time governments at lower levels face pressure for reducing energy intensity that exceeds their respective jurisdictions in the process of information feedback information failure is inevitable due to statistical inaccuracy furthermore the monitoring system is unable to correct all errors and data verification plays a limited role in the examination system to address these problems we recommend that the government use total energy consumption as the primary indicator of energy management reform the accounting and reporting of energy statistics toward greater consistency timeliness and transparency clearly define the responsibility of the higher levels of government

research on the energy saving effect of energy policies in china 1982 2006 this paper summarizes the main energy policies of china from 1980 and divides them into three groups of policies two methods with and without antitheses and linear regression are created to evaluate the energy saving effects of the energy policies and the energy saving effects of these three groups of energy policies of china are evaluated by the two methods respectively it is concluded that with and without antitheses is used to evaluate short term effects and linear regression is used to evaluate long term effects

will the aggregation approach affect energy efficiency performance assessment abstract aggregate energy is usually measured in the linear weighted summation of various energy types based on thermal dynamics laws this measurement is scientific and acceptable in the physics or energy engineering world however it implicitly assumes that all energy types are perfectly substitutable and thus may result in distorted conclusions in energy economy research in economics world production factors are usually non linearly aggregated using divisia approach which is derived from microeconomic theory and considers the heterogeneity and imperfect substitutability among various energies using which ruler to measure the aggregate energy the linear one or the others will certainly affect the conclusions and energy saving incentives of the economic agents inequitable energy aggregations may bring out speculations or discouraged behaviors according to china s current provincial energy efficiency performance assessment policy the central government assigned the target of reducing the national aggregate energy intensity by 20 in 2006 2010 to provincial authorities in 2006 and in july 2011 the central government formally released the provincial assessment results based on conventional linear aggregation approach coal equivalent our re examination review this policy and show that the official results are quite different to that based on divisia approach from the perspective of economics some local performances are overestimated and others are underestimated to raise the equity and incentive compatibility of the assessment we suggest the central take the imperfect substitutability or energy structure changes into consideration we also discuss the difficulties and deficiencies when using divisia aggregate approach

financial integration entrepreneurial risk and global dynamics abstract how does financial integration impact capital accumulation current account dynamics and cross country inequality we investigate this question within a two country general equilibrium incomplete markets model that focuses on the importance of idiosyncratic entrepreneurial risk a risk that introduces not only a precautionary motive for saving but also a wedge between the interest rate and the marginal product of capital our contribution is to show that this friction provides a simple explanation for the emergence of global imbalances a resolution to the empirical puzzle that capital often fails to flow from the rich or slow growing countries to the poor or fast growing ones and a set of policy lessons regarding the intertemporal costs and benefits of capital account liberalization

carbon dioxide emissions intensity of portuguese industry and energy sectors a convergence analysis and econometric approach abstract given the relevance of energy and pollution issues for industrialised countries and the importance of industry and energy sectors to the achievement of their economic and environmental goals it is important to know if there is a common pattern of emissions intensity fuel intensity and energy intensity between industries to know if it justifies a more specific application of energy policies between sectors which sectors have the greatest potential for reducing energy use and which are the long term effects of those specific variables on the mitigation of emissions we found that although there is literature on decomposition of effects that affect emissions the study of the convergence and of the relationships between these variables does not include ratios or effects that result from the decomposition analysis thus the above questions are not answered much less for the portuguese reality the purpose of this paper is to study i the existence of convergence of some relevant ratios as carbon dioxide co 2 emissions intensity co 2 emissions by fossil fuel consumption fossil fuel intensity energy intensity and economic structure between industry and energy sectors in portugal and ii the influence that the consumption of fossil fuels the consumption of aggregate energy and gdp have on co 2 emissions and the influence that the ratios in which co 2 emissions intensity decomposes can affect that variable using an econometric approach namely panel corrected standard errors estimator we concluded that there is sigma convergence for all ratios with exception of fossil fuel intensity gamma convergence verifies for all ratios with exception of co 2 emissions by fossil fuel from the econometric approach we concluded that the considered variables have a significant importance in explaining co 2 emissions and co 2 emissions intensity

the indirect energy consumption and co2 emission caused by household consumption in china an analysis based on the input output method in recent decades china s rapid economy development has been coupling with the steadily increasing household consumption which in turn leads to ever growing energy consumption and co2 emission with a focus on the decade of 2000 2010 this study examines the energy consumption and co2 emission caused by household consumption using the input output method as well as the influencing factors of the indirect co2 emission the results show that first the indirect energy consumption and co2 emission appear the main parts of total energy consumption and co2 emission caused by household consumption accounting for 69 77 and 77 84 respectively second the indirect co2 emission indicates an increasing trend mainly driven by per capita household consumption and energy intensity finally the five sectors with relatively higher direct or total co2 emission intensity are the key sectors for reducing co2 emission in china i e 1 production and distribution of electric power and heat power pdeh 2 smelting and pressing of metals spm 3 processing of petroleum coking processing of nuclear fuel ppcpn 4 manufacture of non metallic mineral products mnm and 5 manufacture of chemical materials mcm

credit traps and credit cycles we develop a simple macroeconomic model of credit market imperfections with heterogeneous investment projects the projects differ in productivity the investment requirement and the severity of agency problems behind the borrowing constraints a movement in borrower net worth shifts the composition of the credit between projects with different productivity levels thereby causing endogenous investment specific technological change furthermore such endogenous technological change in turn affects borrower net worth these composition effects could give rise to credit traps credit collapse leapfrogging credit cycles and growth miracles in the dynamics of the aggregate investment and borrower net worth jel e22 e44 o33

does urbanization affect energy intensities across provinces in china long run elasticities estimation using dynamic panels with heterogeneous slopes abstract although there has been extensive debate in the literature that addresses the impact of urbanization on total energy use the relative magnitude of each impact channel has not been empirically examined and urbanization s effects on energy transition dynamics in china remains unknown using panel datasets at the provincial level from 1986 to 2011 this paper employs dynamic models to investigate both the long run and short run elasticities of urbanization on energy intensities and the most significant impact channel is identified coal intensity and electricity intensity are also modeled to reveal energy transition dynamics driven by urbanization a set of newly developed regression techniques namely well performed common correlated effects mean group ccemg and augmented mean group amg estimators are used to treat residual cross sectional dependence nonstationary residuals and unlikely to hold homogeneous slope assumptions the results obtained verify that the net effects of urbanization on overall energy intensity and electricity intensity are statistically positive with long run elasticities of 0 14 to 0 37 and 0 23 to 0 29 respectively whereas china s urbanization does not significantly increase coal intensity the fact that short run elasticities account for a majority of corresponding long run values indicates that the short run effect that is indirect energy use induced by urban infrastructures is the most significant impact channel of urbanization on energy use in china an energy transition from high pollution coal to clean electricity is also present in china although the fundamental transition to renewable energy is still in its infancy from a regional perspective urbanization exerts asymmetric impacts on provincial energy use so that energy policies associated with urbanization should be province specific the findings also illustrate that for a panel dataset on regional dimension within large and fast growing economies such as china error cross sectional dependence and residual nonstationarity must be tested and properly treated to avoid size distortion and biased estimators

changes in carbon intensity in china empirical findings from 1980 2003 china experienced sustainable rapid economic growth over the period 1980 2003 but at the same time energy related carbon intensity showed a downward trend it begs the question therefore what factors were driving this decline in carbon intensity and will this decline be maintained in future moreover what measures can be adopted to ensure a continual decline in carbon intensity these questions led to increased research in the factors governing co2 emission in china this paper quantifies the driving force behind china s primary energy related carbon intensity and measures the material production sectors final energy related carbon intensity our results show that the overwhelming contributor to the decline of energy related carbon intensity was the reduction in real energy intensity however policies that focus only on the decline in energy intensity are insufficient to further decrease carbon intensity the change of primary energy mix can improve the decline of carbon intensity this should focus on the material production sectors development strategies and final energy use greater emphasis should be given to secondary industry which needs national and regional governments policy support

revisiting drivers of energy intensity in china during 1997 2007 a structural decomposition analysis the decline of china s energy intensity slowed since 2000 during 2002 2005 it actually increased reversing the long term trend therefore it is important to identify drivers of the fluctuation of energy intensity we use input output structural decomposition analysis to investigate the contributions of changes in energy mix sectoral energy efficiency production structure final demand structure and final demand category composition to china s energy intensity fluctuation during 1997 2007 we include household energy consumption in the study by closing the input output model with respect to households results show that sectoral energy efficiency improvements contribute the most to the energy intensity decline during 1997 2007 the increase in china s energy intensity during 2002 2007 is instead explained by changes in final demand composition and production structure changes in final demand composition are mainly due to increasing share of exports while changes in production structure mainly arise from the shift of chinese economy to more energy intensive industries changes in energy mix and final demand structure contribute little to china s energy intensity fluctuation from the consumption perspective growing exports of energy intensive products and increasing infrastructure demands explain the majority of energy intensity increase during 2002 2007

energy intensity and investment ownership across chinese provinces abstract the main objective of this paper is to investigate whether openness and investment ownership are key factors in explaining the diffusion of energy saving technologies in china compared with previous studies the novel aspect of this work is the use of a rich dataset at provincial level which allows the high level of regional heterogeneity to be taken into consideration the unbalanced regional growth has been translated into differences in the need for energy resources across the vast territory of china a detailed analysis of these issues may provide new insights into the energy situation in this country the analysis is also disaggregated by type of energy coal electricity and petroleum we estimate the models by panel corrected standard errors developed by beck and katz 1995 over the period 1985 2008 results obtained confirm the hypothesis that both foreign and non state investments play a leading role in the decline of energy intensity across chinese regions whereas there is no evidence of a positive contribution of state investment the findings also reveal differences in energy intensity across regions thus confirming the importance of accounting for the regional dimension when analyzing energy consumption in china

industry energy use and structural change a case study of the people s republic of china abstract this paper examines the effects of structural change and improvements in energy intensities of individual industries in aggregate industry energy intensity changes in china during 1980 88 the divisia index is used to decompose the energy intensity effect and structural effect a major finding of this analysis is that the main contribution to changed aggregate energy intensity was from the changes in energy intensities of individual industries during the period structural effects were found to contribute little to the aggregate energy intensity changes

analysis of energy efficiency and energy savings potential in china s provincial industrial sectors abstract because industrial sectors in china are energy intensive improving energy efficiency and promoting energy savings in these sectors are of great importance for the further sustainable development of china s economy using a proposed meta frontier data envelopment analysis dea this paper analyzes the total factor energy efficiency and energy savings potential in china s provincial industrial sectors for the years 2000 2014 from three perspectives namely the technology gap management and scale the results indicate that 1 driven by technological progress energy efficiency during the sample period was greatly improved though the expansion of technology gaps between regions and the decline in scale efficiency represented two significant handicaps 2 the current energy efficiency in china s industrial sectors remains extremely low indicating that there is considerable potential for energy efficiency improvement and energy savings and 3 the sources of energy inefficiency and energy savings potential in china s industrial sectors exhibit spatially distinct characteristics accordingly it is determined that most of china s eastern provinces should focus on improving scale and management efficiency whereas most of its central and western provinces should concentrate on three factors narrowing the regional technology gap improving management efficiency and optimizing the industrial scale

energy efficiency in india assessing the policy regimes and their impacts in the recent years india has emerged as one of the fast growing economies of the world necessitating equally rapid increase in modern energy consumption with an imminent global climate change threat india will have difficulties in continuing with this rising energy use levels towards achieving high economic growth it will have to follow an energy efficient pathway in attaining this goal in this context an attempt is made to present india s achievements on the energy efficiency front by tracing the evolution of policies and their impacts the results indicate that india has made substantial progress in improving energy efficiency which is evident from the reductions achieved in energy intensities of gdp to the tune of 88 during 1980 2007 similar reductions have been observed both with respect to overall indian economy and the major sectors of the economy in terms of energy intensity of gdp india occupies a relatively high position of nine among the top 30 energy consuming countries of the world c 2009 elsevier ltd all rights reserved