welfare aspects of technological adoption with learning abstract this paper considers the welfare implications of adoption of a new technology when this technology is characterized by costs of adaptation and some localized learning effects a two period model is developed to represent the adoption game between firms in a duopolistic framework optimal social patterns of adoption are compared with private patterns emerging as equilibria of the game it is shown that differences between the two patterns are due first to the shape of the demand function of the product sold on the duopolistic market and secondly to strategic interaction effects between the adopting firms

hitting the jackpot product proliferation by multiproduct firms under uncertainty this paper presents a model of product proliferation by multiproduct firms under uncertainty firms introduce new differentiated products because they want to hit as many jackpots as possible products with high profits and long lives there is uncertainty about the success of new products as the probability of hitting a jackpot increases product proliferation increases more products are introduced and expected in equilibrium the expected number of products in equilibrium is always less than at the optimum but in industries with multiple firms as the probability of hitting a jackpot increases rivalry intensifies and that gap shrinks

technological change and the rebound effect in the stirpat model a critical view abstract technological change is key to understand the explanatory variables behind environmental impacts in the context of the stirpat stochastic impacts by regression on population affluence and technology model an adequate representation and analysis of the significance of the technology variable t in the stirpat model becomes crucial even more if one aims to better understand underlying processes such as the environmental rebound effect e re a critical review of the application of the stirpat model has been conducted to understand the diversity and value of the variables scopes assumptions statistical approaches and the environmental impacts commonly studied the findings highlight that despite the multiple applications and the high potential of the stirpat model inconclusive results and or knowledge gaps remain notably 1 a geographical imbalance in the scope of studies 2 the almost exclusive focus on carbon emissions 3 a lack of agreement on the choice of data additional explanatory variables and regression models 4 a lack of consensus on how to approximate t and 5 a lack of explicit analyses of the e re our findings are useful to both policymakers and academics for method design further research and policy evaluation

technological expectations and adoption of improved technology abstract attention is focused upon the adoption demand rather than the creation supply of new technology which improves from time to time based on the expected flow of technological progress over which the firm demander has no control it must decide either to adopt the current best available technology or to postpone adoption the distinguishing features of the model are that more than one technological innovation is anticipated and expectations about the likelihood of such innovations are revised as time passes since the last innovation our analysis shows that the firm will adopt the current best practice if its technological lag exceeds a certain threshold moreover as time passes without new technological advances it may become profitable to purchase a technology that has been available even though it was not profitable to do so in the past

sources procedures and microeconomic effects of innovation fabio arcangeli paul david frank engelman christopher freeman massimo moggi richard nelson luigi orsenigo nathan rosenberg michele salvati g n von tunzelman two anonymous referees and the participants at the meeting of the committee on distribution growth and technical progress of the italian national research council cnr rome november 16 1985 have helped with various redraftings a particularly grateful acknowledgment is for the insightful and patient help of moses abramovitz this work has been undertaken at the science policy research unit spru university of sussex as part of the research program of the designated research centre sponsored by the economic and social research council esrc earlier support to the research that led to this paper by the italian national research council cnr is also gratefully acknowledged the statistical research has been undertaken with the assistance of stephano brioschi ilaria fornari and giovannu prennushi

demand and innovation schmookler re examined schmookler s demand pull hypothesis implying that innovation is a function of market demand has been widely accepted re reading schmookler s invention and economic growth we discover a statistical inadequacy re estimating his cross section results in a different way we find somewhat lower coefficients moreover the direction of causality appears to be far from obvious an independent cross sectional test of the schmookler hypothesis in the netherlands based on r d instead of patent data shows similar results the relationship between indicators of demand and innovation turns out to be generally weaker but in most cases still significant and the results suggest that there is a simultaneous relationship between demand and innovation the latter may be explained by the concept of the innovation multiplier which has implications for macro economic modelling 1 re reading schmookler schmookler s 13 finding of a strong relationship between investment in capital goods users industries and patent applications by capital goods producing sectors has been generally accepted by economists as evidence that patenting is a function of effective demand demand pull hypothesis quite a number of case studies have followed schmookier s seminal work but there have been

assessing the energy saving effect of urbanization in china based on stochastic impacts by regression on population affluence and technology stirpat model abstract the rapid urbanization process has posed great challenges to china s energy system this paper uses the stochastic impacts by regression on population affluence and technology stirpat model to evaluate the energy saving effect of china s urbanization based on provincial panel data the results suggest that 1 the urbanization induces the energy consumption with a notable negative energy saving effect 2 the heterogeneity of urbanization impact on energy consumption is analyzed in different stages of urbanization showing that the energy saving effect of urbanization follows a u shaped path 3 considering the heterogeneity of the energy saving effect of urbanization at different income levels the energy saving effect increases with income level the outcome may draw a causation picture on the relationship between energy consumption and urbanization in addition an in depth causation analysis on energy inefficiency of china s urbanization is carried out and policy recommendations are put forward accordingly

innovations and r d in northern ireland manufacturing a schumpeterian approach harris r and trainor m 1995 innovations and r d in northern ireland manufacturing a schumpeterian approach reg studies 29 593 604 given the importance of r d and innovative outputs and the change in regional policy in the 1980s to encourage an enterprise culture based inter alia on a high rate of innovations this paper attempts to explain the determinants of inventive activities in one of the most disadvantaged regions of the united kingdom a model incorporating the impact of market structure is estimated and it is found that in northern ireland higher r d spending leads to a higher probability of innovating while r d itself is positively affected by higher post innovation price cost margins thus r d spending and innovation outputs are beneficial to profitability and thus presumably the long term growth of firms however while market structure is important the direct effects of monopoly power are if anything negative thus the results presented by geroski 1990 are support

modeling multiattribute utility risk and belief dynamics for new consumer durable brand choice this paper proposes a brand choice model to aid in the prelaunch management of a new consumer durable entry in an existing category the model contributes to theory by integrating the critical phenomena of multiattribute preference risk and dynamics in an individual level expected utility framework the integration is based on established theoretical constructs in utility bayesian decision analysis and discrete choice theory measurement and estimation procedures are presented an application is described and the managerial relevance of this work as a planning and forecasting tool is examined

motives to adopt renewable electricity technologies evidence from sweden the diffusion of renewable electricity technologies rets has to speed up for countries to reach their often ambitious targets for renewable energy generation this requires a large number of actors including individuals companies and other organizations to adopt rets policies will most likely be needed to induce adoption but there is limited knowledge about what motivates ret adoption the purpose of this paper is to complement and expand the available empirical evidence regarding motives to adopt rets through a survey to over 600 ret adopters in sweden the main finding of the study is that there are many different motives to adopt rets and that ret adopters are a heterogeneous group with regard to motives although environmental concerns interest in the technology access to an re resource and prospects to generate economic revenues are important motives in general adopters differ with regard to how large importance they attach to the same motive and each adopter can also have several different motives to adopt there are also differences in motives between adopter categories especially independent power producers vs individuals and diversified companies and between rets especially wind power vs solar power this implies that a variety of policy instruments might be needed to induce further adoption of a variety of rets by a variety of adopter categories

the effects of expectations on technology adoption some empirical evidence n rosenberg 1976 argues that in many markets prospective buyers for an innovation are strongly influenced by expectations concerning the timing and significance of future improvements the primary objectives of this article are to provide a model of the innovation decision process of user firms that expect improvements in current best technology and to offer an empirical study that tests the model s predictions among other results the author finds empirical support for rosenberg s argument and demonstrates theoretically that compared to models without technological expectations and learning the optimal decision process is nonmonotonic copyright 1994 by blackwell publishing ltd

complementarities in organizational design and the diffusion of information technologies an empirical analysis we use a specially designed survey on french firms located in haute savoie to provide empirical evidence suggesting that information and communication technologies adoption is not only influenced by the traditional factors of technology diffusion but also by complementarity effects between strategies organization and information technologies the data collected permitted several advances firstly we could study authentic ict while the recent literature has mainly focused on computer capital stocks or automation tools secondly we constructed measures of the determinants put forward by the models of technology diffusion thirdly we studied three kinds of practices organizational and strategic practices technological choices

the demand for information and the diffusion of a new product abstract the paper examines the implications of the ability of a consumer to learn about the characteristics of a new product on the diffusion of the product over time the demand for information by the consumer is shown to generate a sigmoid diffusion curve for total sales of the product further it is shown that over time the elasticity of demand along the diffusion curve increases

discontinuous adoption paths with dynamic scale economies this paper examines the equilibrium adoption patch for two innovations when there are network externalities we show that the existence of significant increasing returns in system scale can give the result that one variant will drive out the other one and so emerges as the unique standard for the industry moreover if network externalities are sufficiently strong then the equilibrium adoption path is discontinuous that is it includes a catastrophe point

public procurement and innovation resurrecting the demand side abstract demand is a major potential source of innovation yet the critical role of demand as a key driver of innovation has still to be recognised in government policy this article discusses public procurement as one of the key elements of a demand oriented innovation policy the paper starts by signaling the new significance of public procurement for innovation policy strategies at the eu level and in a range of european countries it then defines the concept of public procurement and embeds this concept within a taxonomy of innovation policies the rationales and justifications of public procurement policies to spur innovation are discussed followed by a consideration of the challenges and potential pitfalls as well as appropriate institutional arrangements and strategies including some recent empirical examples of good practice it concludes by confronting the public procurement approach with two of the most common objections to it and by considering future prospects

a review of the ecological and socioeconomic effects of biofuel and energy policy recommendations abstract many countries have attached great emphasis on biofuel because it is universally acknowledged renewable and sustainable however there remain doubts regarding biofuel s renewability cleanliness and ecological friendliness in addition its impacts on income employment and food security have been widely discussed therefore the effect of developing biofuel as an important method of resolving the energy crisis and climate change is questioned based on the rocketing concern on the multiple effects of biofuel this paper provides a comprehensive and updated review of the literature on biofuel s ecological effects and socioeconomic effects the literature included in this paper is selected english language papers being published since 2004 we find that existing studies have not arrived at a consensus regarding the ecological or the socioeconomic effects of biofuel there remain uncertainty and doubts toward biofuel s renewability and cleanliness biofuel s impacts on water and biodiversity are also questioned although biofuel is widely regarded to have positive impacts on income and employment many studies prove that biofuel influences food security negatively besides biofuel s economic cost is likely to be the barrier to its promotion because of the uncertainty of biofuel s impacts this study recommends cautious attitude toward biofuel development especially for those countries where biofuel development would be inappropriate and suggests that policy makers engage in demand side management instead of unsustainable supply side management

information capacity and innovation adoption researchers of innovation adoption and diffusion often have tested the hypothesis that firms with greater capacities to gather and evaluate information should adopt sooner however the data generally do not support this hypothesis a theoretical model of innovation adoption under uncertainty is developed to show that greater information capacity implies not only faster learning which tends to reduce the expected delay until adoption but also a more stringent adoption criterion which tends to increase the expected delay the resulting ambiguity provides an explanation for the lack of empirical support for this hypothesis

strategic timing of adoption of new technologies under uncertainty abstract in this paper we introduce experience effects into a duopoly game of timing of adoption of new technologies which exhibit exogenous technological progress departing from the existing literature with this model we obtain continuous and downward sloping reaction functions we find that a higher level of uncertainty increases the extent of dispersion between the equilibrium timings of adoption furthermore we find that the equilibrium timings are even more dispersed when the leader takes the follower s reaction into account when firm roles are made endogenous we find that if there is an incentive to lead follow the equilibrium timings are more less dispersed finally we show that it is possible for collusive adoption to improve welfare

strategic intrafirm innovation adoption and diffusion 1 introduction this paper addresses two empirical observations that are common in the extensive literature on innovation diffusion first a firm usually adopts an innovation over time not instantaneously that is there are intrafirm diffusions mansfield 1968 nasbeth and ray 1974 romeo 1975 stoneman 1981 1983 second the time path of an intrafirm diffusion has a predictable shape diffusion curves plot the extent of adoption against time and are generally s shaped that is they are initially convex reach an inflection point and then are concave thereafter often they are also skewed in that they are initially convex for less than half of the length of the diffusion this skewing can be so severe that the diffusion curve is essentially concave davies 1979 stoneman 1983 given the voluminous literature on innovation diffusion it is surprising that intrafirm diffusions have not received more attention with few exceptions noted below the theoretical literature assumes adoption is a discrete choice variable and so occurs instantaneously moreover empirical studies typically assume adoption occurs at the date of first use of the innovation by the firm to the extent intrafirm diffusions occur these studies clearly overestimate the speed at which the innovation is put into use and thus the speed at which its benefits accrue to the firm and society intrafirm diffusions are especially common in the case of capital embodied new process innovations because adoption involves adjustment costs as well as acquisition costs in a seminal study mansfield 1968 found that the time interval between 10 and 90 usage of diesel locomotives ranged from three to more than 14 years for firms in the u s railroad industry more recent examples abound most readers have undoubtedly experienced at least once the adoption of new computer equipment in their workplace from my own experience not all users are upgraded to the new equipment within a day a week or even a month hence in this paper i analyze the intrafirm diffusion of a new process innovation in a differential game model of an oligopoly the model s predictions are consistent with the empirical regularities noted above first an intrafirm diffusion occurs in equilibrium because the marginal cost of adoption is increasing in the rate of adoption it is not optimal to adopt instantaneously just as it is not optimal to adjust to the desired level of a stock instantaneously when adjustment costs are increasing at the margin second the equilibrium intrafirm diffusion curve is either s shaped or concave moreover this diffusion curve is more likely to be sshaped the more competitive the industry the larger the marginal cost of adoption or the preinnovation unit cost of production or the smaller the demand the analysis also shows a firm s diffusion is longer and so the extent of its adoption at any date is lower the more competitive the industry the larger the marginal cost of adoption or the pre innovation unit cost of production or the smaller the demand that is a diffusion is longer the smaller the incentive to adopt whether due to lower flow profit or higher adoption flow cost one surprising result is that an increase in the unit cost reduction from the innovation has an ambiguous effect on the intrafirm diffusion the reason is that there are two conflicting effects first as is obvious a larger cost reduction allows each firm to earn a larger flow profit at every date from the same rate of adoption however a more subtle effect is that it also allows the firm to earn the same flow of profit with a slower rate of adoption and so lower adoption costs that is the firms also have an incentive to spread out the diffusion over a longer period of time to save on adoption costs these results are important for two reasons first they show that diffusion curves are more likely to have an s shape for longer diffusions

uncertainty competition and the adoption of new technology faced with the decision of whether or not to adopt a new technology whose economic value cannot be gauged with certainty the manager of the firm may elect to decrease the uncertainty by sequentially gathering information at a unit cost of c 0 updating his prior beliefs in a bayesian manner uncertainty regarding the actions of a competitor however cannot be reduced our model allows a manager to account for potential competition either substitute or complementary by inclusion of strategic considerations modelled in a game theoretic setting we show that the firm s best response mapping satisfies a dynamic programming recursion even when the one period reward function is unbounded providing management with a familiar tool to solve its problem best response behavior is characterized by a monotone sequence of pairs of threshold numbers which give rise to a cone shaped continuation region the continuation region is shown to shift up down with increases in the expected level of substitute complementary competition making the firm less more likely to adopt the innovation finally the existence of a nash equilibrium in cone shaped strategies is established

adoption and diffusion of an innovation of uncertain profitability the argument has frequently been made that the pattern of diffusion associated with most new innovations will typically have certain characteristics a diffusion curve for an innovation is usually defined as the proportion of its potential users who have already adopted as a function of time measured from the first adoption many empirical studies by both economists and other social scientists have shown that diffusion curves nearly always have two distinct characteristics i they are s shaped the proportion adopted is an increasing function of time which is initially convex but eventually becomes concave and ii they tend to be right hand skewed the inflection point occurs at a time corresponding to a proportion adopted which is less than one half so that the function is concave over the greatest amount of time in fact this skewing is occasionally severe enough to make the diffusion curve appear concave everywhere the focus of most empirical studies of innovation diffusion has centered on identification of either the major determinants of the speed of diffusion or the characteristics of firms which determine how long they delay adoption the seminal contributions are griliches 6 study of hybrid corn and mansfield s 121 study of 12 industrial innovations these studies and most of the similar ones following conclude that diffusion is faster for innovations with higher profitability and that large firms tend to be the earliest adopters some studies e g mansfield 121 herregat 71 have attempted to ascertain

the new economy in europe 1992 2001 despite the fast catching up in ict diffusion experienced by most eu countries in the last few years information technologies have so far delivered little productivity gains in europe in the second half of the past decade growth contributions from ict capital rose in six eu countries only the uk denmark finland sweden ireland and greece quite unlike the united states this has not generally been associated to higher labour or total factor productivity growth rates the only exceptions being ireland and greece particularly worrisome the large countries in continental europe germany france italy and spain showed stagnating or mildly declining growth contributions from ict capital together with definite declines in tfp growth compared to the first half of the 1990s it looks like that the celebrated solow paradox on the lack of correlation between ict investment and productivity growth has fled the us to migrate to europe

vintage human capital growth and the diffusion of new technology we develop a model of vintage human capital in which each technology requires vintage specific skills we examine the properties of a stationary equilibrium for our economy the stationary equilibrium is characterized by an endogenous distribution of skilled workers across vintages the distribution is shown to be single peaked under general conditions there is a lag between the appearance of a technology and its peak usage a phenomenon known as diffusion an increase in the rate of exogenous technological change shifts the distribution of human capital to more recent vintages thereby increasing the diffusion rate

innovation adoption and diffusion when there are competing innovations abstract firms face a choice between two innovations without knowing which of the two is better each firm has a prior that one of the innovations is better which is updated by bayes rule as trials with the innovations are made a simple decision rule indicating which innovation should be tried given any posterior is derived and used to define an expected diffusion curve for the better innovation this curve has the commonly observed ogive shape even in the absence of any external demonstration effect when the distribution of firm priors belongs to a general class

new methodology for the ecological footprint with an application to the new zealand economy abstract sustainable development has become a primary objective for many countries throughout the world since the late 1980s a major difficulty associated with sustainable development objectives however is the absence of reliable indicators to measure progress towards the goal of sustainability the ecological footprint provides an estimate of the land area necessary to sustain current levels of resource consumption for a given population on an aggregate basis the ecological footprint may be compared with the amount of ecologically productive land available to give an indication of whether consumption patterns are likely to be sustainable this paper proposes the use of a modified form of input output analysis to calculate the ecological footprint the input output approach provides a consistent means of calculating an ecological footprint using data collected as part of the system of national accounts in most developed countries in addition it makes explicit the link between the level of economic activity in a country and its corresponding impact on the environment an application of this methodology to new zealand indicates that it takes 3 49 has of ecologically productive land per year to sustain the average new zealander s current level of consumption

invest or exit optimal decisions in the face of a declining profit stream even in the face of deteriorating and highly volatile demand firms often invest in rather than discard aging technologies to study this phenomenon we model the firm s profit stream as a brownian motion with negative drift at each point in time the firm can continue operations or it can stop and exit the project in addition there is a one time option to make an investment that boosts the project s profit rate using stochastic analysis we show that the optimal policy always exists and that it is characterized by three thresholds there are investment and exit thresholds before investment and there is a threshold for exit after investment we also effect a comparative statics analysis of the thresholds with respect to the drift and the volatility of the brownian motion when the profit boost upon investment is sufficiently large we find a novel result the investment threshold decreases in volatility

the role of technological expectations in a mixed model of international diffusion of process innovations the case of open end spinning rotors abstract in the years following the introduction of open end rotors a major innovation in cotton spinning technological change in spinning has been characterized by fast rates of introduction of incremental innovations this has made possible considerable improvements in the quality of products as well as reductions in the cost of spinning this case seems especially appropriate for analysing the effects of incremental innovations on the rate of diffusion one the one hand expectations of continuing incremental change may have actually slowed the diffusion of open end rotors contrarily increased profitability from their adoption may have reinforced the rate of diffusion a mixed model of diffusion one that is able to evaluate the role of supply forces such as the introduction of incremental innovations and at the same time the role of bounded rationality and learning by imitating has been developed it draws on the behavioural literature and upon the epidemic approach due to mansfield results of an econometric test on international data available for 26 countries confirm that the rate of introduction of incremental innovations has reduced the rate of diffusion this is especially the case in countries where the technological change in spinning was originated and consequently technological expectations were higher

human capital information and the early adoption of new technology when producers are uncertain or have imperfect information about the profitability of adopting new technology their adoption behavior depends on the endowment of human capital and the investment in adoption information this study analyzes the role of education experience and information acquisition in the decision to be an early adopter the findings support the hypothesis that adoption decision making is a human capital intensive activity the econometric evidence presented suggests that education and information reduce adoption costs and uncertainty and thereby raise the probability of early adoption adoption behavior is also shown to vary significantly across firm size

boom and bust patterns in the adoption of financial innovations we develop a dynamic model of the adoption of financial innovations each period firms decide whether or not to adopt an innovation of uncertain value and the profitability of each period s adoptions reveals information about the innovation s value we show that characteristics of financial innovation waves cited by critics as evidence of irrational excess are in fact consistent with fully rational behavior we also show that social welfare is enhanced when more firms adopt innovations of questionable value and that financial intermediaries base an incentive to encourage such adoption article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

information and profitability estimates modelling the firm s decision to adopt a new technology this paper uses a response surface based on catastrophe theory to examine the interaction of information and profitability estimates on the firm s adoption of a new technology or innovation as such the paper builds on the conceptual ideas behind mccardle s 1985 work an illustrative example using simulated data is presented to indicate how one might operationalize the key constructs for the purpose of estimating the model

nash equilibrium search for the best alternative in a recent paper weitzman econometrica 47 1979 641 654 described a policy of optimal search for the best alternative the present paper is concerned with the development and characterization of a policy of nash equilibrium search for the best alternative specifically it is shown that under certain monotonicity assumptions and under the assumption that firms have incomplete information regarding the results of rivals search behavior a nash equilibrium search policy exists and has the same form as weitzman s optimal search policy

appropriability and commercialization evidence from mit inventions the effects of appropriability on invention have been well studied but there has been little analysis of the effect of appropriability on the commercialization of existing inventions exploiting a database of 805 attempts by private firms to commercialize inventions licensed from the massachusetts institute of technology mit between 1980 and 1996 we explore the influence of several appropriability mechanisms on the commercialization and termination of projects to develop products based on university inventions our central hypothesis is that the relationship between a licensee s decision to either terminate or commercialize the invention is driven by the current market value of the invention as well as the option value of delaying its commercialization we use a competing risks framework that allows for nonparametric heterogeneity and correlated risks we find that better appropriability in the sense of more effective patent strength and secrecy has a strong negative effect on the hazard of license termination the effectiveness of learning has a strong positive effect on the hazard of technology commercialization while lead time has a negative effect

modelling the innovation value chain innovation events the introduction of new products or processes represent the end of a process of knowledge sourcing and transformation they also represent the beginning of a process of exploitation which may result in an improvement in the performance of the innovating business this recursive process of knowledge sourcing transformation and exploitation comprises the innovation value chain modelling the innovation value chain for a large group of manufacturing firms in ireland and northern ireland highlights the drivers of innovation productivity and firm growth in terms of knowledge sourcing we find strong complementarity between horizontal forwards backwards public and internal knowledge sourcing activities each of these forms of knowledge sourcing also makes a positive contribution to innovation in both products and processes although public knowledge sources have only an indirect effect on innovation outputs in the exploitation phase innovation in both products and processes contribute positively tocompany growth with product innovation having a short term disruption effect on labour productivity modelling the complete innovation value chain highlights the structure and complexity of the process of translating knowledge into business value and emphasises the role of skills capital investment and firms other resources in the value creation process

uncertain search a model of search among technologies of uncertain values in the standard search problem there is an infinite pool of items whose distribution of values is known a decision maker draws an item from the pool observes its value and decides whether to keep it or to draw another item he can keep only one item and he seeks the item with the largest value in the standard uncertainty resolution problem there is only one item and the value of that item remains uncertain even after it is drawn the decision maker sequentially collects observations on the value of the item and decides whether to keep the item discard the item or take another observation uncertain search marries the sequential drawing from a pool of items from the search literature with the unknown value of a drawn item from the uncertainty resolution literature presented in the context of technology adoption it considers drawing from a pool of new technologies whose values remain unknown even after being drawn the decision maker sequentially purchases information in order to bayesianly update

adoption of competing inventions by united states steel producers a hstract this research investigates innovative behavior in the u s steel industry under the assumption that basic oxygen and large electric furnaces are competing technologies the empirical model of innovation is based on recent theoretical research the coefficients are estimated by a seemingly unrelated tobit approach the research finds innovation is strongly influenced by a demonstration effect adoption is also influenced by potential cost savings and technical progress there is no evidence that large u s steel producers modernized more slowly than their smaller rivals the large electric furnace becomes sufficiently attractive by 1980 that firms choose not to adopt basic oxygen

innovation firm size and growth in a centralized organization the optimal innovation firm size and growth are derived for a centrally controlled firm in which only the entrepreneur evaluates and restores current projects or evaluates and adopts new projects current projects are subject to failure due to entry and possible obsolescence while new projects may not be successful the optimal allocation of attention implies bounds on firm size and that the rate of innovation depends not only on monopoly profits firm size and technological opportunity but also on the probability of obsolescence the effects of monopoly power and firm size on innovation also depend on the degree of obsolescence

firm characteristics and the cyclicality of r d investments the aim of this study is to combine micro aspects of firm behavior with macro aspects of business development and identify market conditions e g price competition and firm characteristics e g type of r d partners that enable a firm to have a pro cyclical anti cyclical or non systematic r d investment behavior the empirical results confirm to large extent a series of hypotheses as to innovation relevant firm characteristics that underline the three different behavior categories and allow us to make profiles of the three types of r d behavior

does urbanization lead to less energy use and lower co2 emissions a cross country analysis despite the relationship between urbanization energy use and co2 emissions has been extensively studied in recent years little attention has been paid to differences in development stages or income levels most previous studies have implicitly assumed that the impact of urbanization is homogenous for all countries this assumption can be questionable as there are many characteristic differences among countries of different levels of affluence this paper investigates empirically the effects of urbanization on energy use and co2 emissions with consideration of the different development stages using the stochastic impacts by regression on population affluence and technology stirpat model and a balanced panel dataset of 99 countries over the period 1975 2005 the findings suggest that the impact of urbanization on energy use and emissions varies across the stages of development surprisingly urbanization decreases energy use in the low income group while it increases energy use in the middle and high income groups the impact of urbanization on emissions is positive for all the income groups but it is more pronounced in the middle income group than in the other income groups these novel findings not only help advance the existing literature but also can be of special interest to policy makers and urban planners

is demand pulled innovation equally important in different groups of firms previous empirical literature has tested the demand pull hypothesis and found that innovation may be driven by output using a balanced panel of 216 italian manufacturing firms 1995 2000 and checking for the path dependent nature of r d we find a role of sales in inducing r d however the demand pull effect plays a varying role for different sub samples of firms exporting firms liquidity constrained firms not subsidised firms and those not heading a group seem to be sensitive to sales in deciding r d these results have been obtained using a least squares dummy variable corrected estimator a recent panel data technique suitable for small samples

technology adoption with uncertain future costs and quality in this paper we study the impact of uncertainty about future innovations in quality and costs on consumers technology adoption decisions we model the uncertainty in the technology s quality and costs as a markov process and consider three models of the adoption decision the first model assumes that consumers do a simple net present value npv analysis that compares the npv of adopting to that of not adopting without considering the possibility of waiting the second model is a stochastic dynamic program that considers the possibility of waiting and views the adoption decision as a one time event i e the consumer will only make a single purchase the only question is when the third model allows repeat purchases so the consumer may upgrade by purchasing new versions of the technology whenever it suits her we study structural properties of these models e g the following what changes in qualities and costs will make the consumer better off what changes will encourage adoption we will see that the simple npv and single purchase model have many intuitive properties with the right notion of improvements and reasonable assumptions about the technology changes we find that improvements in the technology make the consumer better off and encourage adoption here improvements are defined using a partial order on quality and cost pairs the results are more complicated in the repeat purchase model under the same conditions on technology changes technology improvements will make the consumer better off however except for special cases of transitions these improvements may make the consumer better off and discourage adoption

something to talk about social spillovers in movie consumption we exploit the randomness of weather and the relationship between weather and moviegoing to quantify social spillovers in movie consumption instrumenting for early viewership with plausibly exogenous weather shocks captured in lasso chosen instruments we find that shocks to opening weekend viewership are doubled over the following five weekends our estimated momentum arises almost exclusively at the local level and we find no evidence that it varies with either ex post movie quality or the precision of ex ante information about movie quality suggesting that the observed momentum is driven in part by a preference for shared experience and not only by social learning

impacts of urbanization on national transport and road energy use evidence from low middle and high income countries abstract few attempts have been made to investigate quantitatively and systematically the impact of urbanization on transport energy use for countries of different stages of economic development this paper examines the influence of urbanization on national transport and road energy use for low middle and high income countries during 1975 2005 using the stochastic impacts by regression on population affluence and technology stirpat model after controlling for population size income per capita and the share of services in the economy the main results suggest that urbanization influences national transport and road energy use positively however the magnitude of its influence varies among the three income groups changes in urbanization appear to have a greater impact on transport and road energy use in the high income group than in the other groups surprisingly the urbanization elasticities of transport and road energy use in the middle income group are smaller than those of the low income group this study not only sheds further light on the existing literature but also provides policy makers with insightful information on the link between urbanization and transport energy use at the three different stages of development

the impact of urbanization on co2 emissions evidence from developing countries abstract this paper analyzes the impact of urbanization on co2 emissions in developing countries from 1975 to 2003 it contributes to the existing literature by examining the effect of urbanization taking into account dynamics and the presence of heterogeneity in the sample of countries the results show an inverted u shaped relationship between urbanization and co2 emissions indeed the elasticity emission urbanization is positive for low urbanization levels which is in accordance with the higher environmental impact observed in less developed regions among our contributions is the estimation of a semi parametric mixture model that allows for unknown distributional shapes and endogenously classifies countries into homogeneous groups three groups of countries are identified for which urbanization s impact differs considerably for two of the groups a threshold level is identified beyond which the emission urbanization elasticity is negative and further increases in the urbanization rate do not contribute to higher emissions however for the third group only population and affluence but not urbanization contribute to explain emissions the differential impact of urbanization on co2 emissions should therefore be taken into account in future discussions of climate change policies

information acquisition and the adoption of new technology the profitability of a new technology is rarely known with certainty at its announcement date consequently prior to making an adoption decision it behooves the firm considering the adoption of this innovation to reduce the level of uncertainty associated with its profitability the firm accomplishes this by sequentially gathering information updating its prior estimate of profitability in a bayesian manner quantifying the uncertainty regarding the innovation permits application of dynamic programming techniques criteria are derived which tell the firm when to stop collecting information and make the adoption decision it will be shown that it is optimal for the firm to continue to collect information until its estimate of profitability crosses one of two thresholds upon crossing the upper threshold the firm adopts the technology whereas the firm rejects the technology if the lower threshold is crossed the model predicts that even the manager who behaves optimally will occasionally adopt unprofitable technologies and reject profitable ones

second mover advantages in the strategic adoption of new technology under uncertainty abstract this paper introduces technological uncertainty into a timing game of new technology adoption it is shown that the timing neither necessarily involves first mover advantages in precommitment equilibria reinganum review of economic studies xlviii 1981 395 405 nor rent equalization due to the threat of preemption fudenberg and tirole review of economic studies lii 1985 383 401 rather there may be second mover advantages because of informational spillovers furthermore the model predicts that the equilibrium payoffs will typically be discontinuous and non monotonic in the probability that the new technology is profitable a welfare analysis reveals several market failures and suggests that policy intervention should adequately depend on the nature of uncertainty and the rate of technological progress

technology choice and timing with positive network effects abstract when two competing and incompatible products coexist in a market potential users face a choice between the two products and the alternative of deferring the decision this paper examines the choice between the two substitutes where each one is subject to a positive network effect that is a user of one of the products experiences an increase in the value for each additional person using the same product we examine this buy or wait problem either for an individual or a manager making the investment on behalf of a firm by formulating and analyzing a decision theoretic model to model the stochastic evolution of market share we build on the generalized polya urn of arthur et al arthur w b ermoliev y m kaniovski y m 1987 path dependent processes and the emergence of macro structure european journal of operational research 30 3 294 303 allowing for composition of the market to affect not just the relative market shares but also the absolute growth rate of the market we show that the optimal strategy is defined by a pair of market penetration thresholds that depend on the market composition looking at the effect of the network effects on the optimal strategy we find that more pronounced network effects can either raise or lower the penetration thresholds

models of technology diffusion abstract the literature on new technology diffusion is vast and it spills over many conventional disciplinary boundaries this paper surveys the literature by focusing on alternative explanations of the dominant stylized fact that the usage of new technologies over time typically follows an s curve the most commonly found model which is used to account for this model is the so called epidemic model which builds on the premise that what limits the speed of usage is the lack of information available about the new technology how to use it and what it does the leading alternate model is often called the probit model which follows from the premise that different firms with different goals and abilities are likely to want to adopt the new technology at different times in this model diffusion occurs as firms of different types gradually adopt it there are actually many ways to generate an s curve and the third class of models which we examine are models of density dependence popularized by population ecologists in these models the twin forces of legitimation and competition help to establish new technologies and then ultimately limit their take up finally we look at models in which the initial choice between different variants of the new technology affect the subsequent diffusion speed of the chosen technology such models often rely on information cascades which drive herd like adoption behaviour when a particular variant is finally selected

consumer learning and hybrid vehicle adoption we study the effect of differences in product quality on new technology diffusion we propose a model in which heterogeneity in perceived product quality affects consumer adoption if consumers experientially infer the quality of a technology an increase in initial exposure to a low quality product may inhibit subsequent diffusion incentives intended to speed up adoption may in fact have the opposite effect if they propagate low quality signals we examine the predictions of the model using sales data for 11 hybrid vehicle models between 2000 and 2006 consistent with press reports that the first generation insight was perceived to be of lower quality than the first generation prius we find that conditional on overall hybrid vehicle adoption in the first 2 years locations with a relatively high prius market share experienced faster subsequent adoption than states with a relatively high insight market share we estimate the elasticity of new hybrid sales with respect to the prius penetration rate is 0 30 0 58 while the elasticity with respect to the insight penetration rate is 0 14 to 0 44

economic growth quality environmental sustainability and social welfare in china provincial assessment based on genuine progress indicator gpi abstract in order to devise scientific and sustainable development strategy it is vital to assess the quality of economic growth as a useful complement to traditional economic indicators gpi s most reputed virtue is its great improvement in evaluating environmental and social costs in this paper we estimate the gpi for all 31 provinces in mainland china from 1997 to 2016 gpi estimation is highly sensitive to income inequality climate change damage and depletion of non renewables we address contestable methodological assumptions associated with the three items which have been usually ignored in empirical studies we use the atkinson index in place of the gini index as a measure of income inequality we avoid the problematic duplicated counting of climate change damage and the unjustified cost escalation factor in depletion of non renewables our results show that first gpi per capita has recently declined in some provinces unveiling a threat to social welfare and sustainability second the relative threshold effect the progress of social welfare promotion is slower than the expansion of economic scale has been found in many provinces third resource consumption and environmental pollution especially water pollution and carbon emissions would generate substantial welfare losses

is urbanization eco friendly an energy and land use cross country analysis abstract urbanization imposes complicated and heterogeneous impacts on ecosystems with the purpose of reflecting the comprehensive influence of urbanization on the ecosystem we choose the ecological footprint to represent the ecosystem s integrated change and distinguish low income middle income and high income countries to reflect the nonlinear impact this paper uses both static and dynamic stirpat stochastic impacts by regression on population affluence and technology models to analyze 72 countries at different income levels during the 1980 2008 period the results show that the overall ecological elasticity of urbanization at the global level is negative specifically results suggest urbanization associated to increased income to have eco friendly potential in terms of decreased ecological footprint to explain such results this paper answers two questions why does urbanization show ecological protection effects why does a more pronounced protection effect seem associated to increased income levels improved market mechanism increased resource use efficiency as well as increased environmental awareness in urban areas associated to increased income levels are likely to support an eco friendly urbanization process burden shift to low income countries also needs to be taken into account in order to avoid policies that increase wellbeing locally at the expenses of far away areas

on the diffusion of new technology a game theoretic approach this paper is an attempt at a rigorous albeit not exceedingly general analysis of the diffusion of new technology in particular consider an industry composed of two firms each using the current best practice technology the firms are assumed to be operating at nash equilibrium output levels generating a market price given demand and profit allocations when a cost reducing innovation is announced each firm must determine when if ever to adopt it based in part upon the discounted cost of implementing the new technology and in part upon the behavior of the rival firm if either firm adopts before the other it can expect to make substantial profits at the expense of the other firm on the other hand the discounted sum of purchase price and adjustment costs may decline with the lengthening of the adjustment period as various quasi fixed factors become more easily variable therefore although waiting costs the firm more in terms of foregone profits it may save money on the cost of purchasing the new technology thus the firm must weigh the costs and benefits of delaying adoption as well as take account of its rival s strategic behavior

dynamic patent licensing abstract this paper shows one way a fixed fee can dominate an auction if no one knows whether the innovation will succeed or not when it appears and if its life exceeds the life of the patent then selling one licence by fixed fee maximizes inventor profit for some probabilities of success the reason is a nonlicensee is better off when a rival buys a license because this reveals the nature of the innovation if it succeeds the nonlicensee can adopt in the future after the patent has expired this expected future gain can outweigh the expected loss during the life of the patent

impact of bayesian learning and externalities on strategic investment we investigate the interplay between learning effects and externalities in the problem of competitive investments with uncertain returns we examine a game theoretic duopoly investment model in which i a firm can learn about the profitability of the investment by observing the performance of the first mover and ii externalities exist between the investments of two firms we find a region of a war of attrition between the two firms in which the interplay between externalities and learning gives rise to counterintuitive effects on investment strategies and payoffs in particular we find that contrary to the conventional war of attrition where an increase in benefits for the follower generally delays the first move an increase in the rate of learning which tends to benefit the follower can hasten the first investment this paper was accepted by james smith decision analysis

endogenous diffusion of technology abstract this paper presents a positive theory of diffusion of technology it examines a two period model strategic firms are confronted by a process technology with an uncertain reduction in marginal costs the uncertainty is automatically resolved between the two periods adoption in the first period yields a leadership advantage relative to firms that do not adopt while simultaneous adoption by firms results in a cournot equilibrium the firms strategies are both production quantities and adoption timings these decisions are made at the same time thus firms face a trade off between early adoption and possibly reaping first mover advantages on one hand and deferring the adoption decision until after all the uncertainty is resolved but face the possibiity of being a follower in the market interestingly an endogenously determined diffusion rate is obtained as a pure strategy nash equilibrium of this game this means that while adoption and diffusion of technology results with probability one diffusion of a bad innovation is also possible it is also shown that in a market with one large firm and a nonatomic continuum of small firms there is a unique nash equilibrium in which the large firm adopts first and is a stackelberg leader and all the small firms decide whether or not to adopt after the uncertainty is resolved the implication of this result is simply that the diffusion of technology is to some extent determined by the relative size of firms in the industry

exploring the relationship between urbanization energy consumption and co2 emission in mena countries abstract this study explored the relationship between urbanization energy consumption and co2 emission in the mena countries the panel model was utilized taking the period 1980 2009 into consideration pedroni cointegration test results showed that urbanization energy consumption and co2 emission were cointegrated the dynamic ols results also showed that there was a long run bi directional positive relationship between urbanization energy consumption and co2 emission however the significance of the long run relationship between urbanization energy consumption and co2 emission varied across the countries based on their level of income and development moreover long and short run bi directional causal relationships were found between the variables based on the granger causality test results from the results of this study it is important for the urban planners and policy makers in the mena countries to slow the rapid increase in urbanization the level of energy consumption and co2 emission in the mena countries increased more than double thus slowing down the urbanization level can help reduce the level of pollution and energy consumption in addition the increased energy efficiency implementation of energy savings projects energy conservation and energy infrastructure outsourcing reduce the level of pollution produced by urban areas

multiplant firms and innovation adoption and diffusion 1 introductionone empirical regularity associated with the adoption of new technology is that large firms tend to adopt sooner than small firms e g see davies 1979 mansfield 1968 mansfield et al 1982 stoneman 1983 1995 or hoppe 2002 the usual explanation of course is that large firms expect a greater return from adoption than small firms however large firms do not always adopt first as can be seen from the diffusion of several new processes in the u s steel industry the basic oxygen furnace and continuous casting adams and mueller 1982 and thin slab casting ghemawat 1993 1995 this article develops a new theoretical model of innovation adoption and diffusion that explains why large firms tend to adopt first but admits conditions under which small firms adopt first the analysis focuses on the adoption of an innovation of uncertain profitability when a firm s size is measured by the number of plants it operates as is well known one reason for operating multiple plants is production costs that are increasing at the margin another reason is the existence of economies of multiplant operations cost savings that result solely from the operation of multiple plants theoretical and empirical support for these economies is mixed theoretically the operation of multiple plants can allow savings in nonproduction costs such as transportation distribution and inventory it can also allow economies of massed reserves cost savings associated with retaining proportionately fewer spare parts backup machines and repair persons in reserve information sharing between plants can reduce production and adoption costs however multiplant operation can also result in greater information costs van zandt and radner 2001 show that because information processing takes time computational constraints limit the amount of information that can be used in reaching a decision this informational crowding out effect can result in decreasing returns to size or diseconomies of multiplant operation in a seminal wide ranging study scherer et al 1975 find little empirical evidence in support of multiplant economies moreover when these economies do exist they involve savings in nonproduction costs more recently in their comparative study of the performance of light water nuclear reactor power plants in the united states and france lester and mccabe 1993 do find empirical support for production cost savings due to information sharing about learning by doing between plants in his study of the adoption of thin slab casting in the steel industry ghemawat 1995 1997 finds that nucor achieved cost savings due to information sharing between plants regarding both construction and production costs however he attributes these multiplant economies to specific aspects of nucor s organizational structure and observes that other steel firms with different organizational structures did not achieve these same cost savings given these conflicting results the analysis in this article assumes that if there are multiplant economies they take the form of savings in nonproduction costs in this case a large firm need not have a greater incentive to adopt first its increase in profit from the adoption of a success in all its plants is certainly greater however the existence of nonproduction cost economies can reduce the incentive of a large firm to adopt first suppose there are two firms a large firm with two plants and a small firm with one plant also suppose that when the innovation is first installed in a plant the adopter must shut down that plant for a finite amount of time in order to learn if the innovation is a success or not this shut down time can be considered as an experimental period during which the firm trains workers produces and tests prototypes attempts to overcome any problems associated with the use of the new technology or makes any necessary changes in its existing organization

disagreement in markets with matching and bargaining this paper develops an explanation of why bargainers often terminate negotiations in disagreement in spite of positive expected gains from continued negotiation the key to the analysis is a model which embeds bargaining activity within a market agents are continually faced with the choice between continuing to bargain with an existing partner or searching for a new partner bargainers may then terminate negotiations without an agreement in spite of positive expected gains from continued bargaining because seeking a new bargaining partner promises a higher return

bad eggs learning by doing and the choice of technology we model long run economic development through technology adoption under scientific uncertainty about environmental effects there are four possible long run equilibria in a socially planned economy high growth adopt rapidly but abandon damaging technologies once revealed ddt cfcs cautious brake the introduction of new technologies to avoid mistakes genetically modified organisms no growth halt technological progress to preserve secondary knowledge and collapse adopt rapidly without ever abandoning damaging technologies in the base parameterization a short sighted social planner chooses the cautious strategy a far sighted planner chooses the high growth strategy unless damages are irreversible in which case the cautious strategy again dominates regulatory options in the market economy are investigated pollution taxes do not affect the firm s level of precaution if they can only be applied after the adopting firm has reaped the benefits however they do encourage the abandonment of damaging technologies liability rules do affect precaution but may lead to excessive caution or even a no growth trap

how urbanization affects energy use in developing countries abstract this paper identifies mechanisms whereby urbanization affects energy consumption industrialization and urbanization accompany each other during economic development but urbanization exerts a number of independent influences on energy use it permits economies of scale in production but requires more transportation food must be transported to urbanized populations and relatively smaller agricultural populations must modernize entailing considerable increases in agricultural energy use in cities a number of production activities which were domestically provided in rural areas using human or animal energy shift to sources outside the household using modern energy sources the largest single source of change in energy use is personal transportation passenger transport in cities is heavily weighted towards fuel using modes particularly as incomes increase to assess the overall impact a regression analysis of 59 developing countries for 1980 is conducted holding constant per capita income and the extent of industrialization the elasticity of energy consumption per capita and per dollar of gdp is between 0 35 and 0 48

what causes pm2 5 pollution cross economy empirical analysis from socioeconomic perspective abstract is it true that as the mainstream intuition asserts urbanization and industrialization are the two main socioeconomic drivers of pm2 5 how do the two trends affect pm2 5 emission this paper quantitatively analyzes the socioeconomic drivers of pm2 5 through assessment on stochastic impacts by regression on population affluence and technology stripat based on the panel data of 79 developing countries over 2001 2010 the average levels of pm2 5 pollution are calculated using remote sensing data overcoming the difficulties that developing countries are in lack of pm2 5 monitors and that point data cannot reflect the overall level of pm2 5 pollution on a large scale squared terms of income and urbanization and their cross term are included in the regression models respectively to analyze the possible heterogeneous impacts on pm2 5 emissions in different development stages the results show that income urbanization and service sector have significant impact on pm2 5 pollution income has a positive effect on pm2 5 all the time but the effect decreases as the level of urbanization or income goes up an inverted u relationship exists between urbanization and pm2 5 in which pm2 5 pollution positively correlates with a low level of income or urbanization but negatively at a high level policy recommendations from the perspective of macro level social and economic regulation are provided for developing economies to reduce pm2 5 pollution

innovative activity over the business cycle this paper examines cyclical patterns of innovative activity in the united kingdom over the period 1948 83 innovative activity turns out to have many of the properties of a random walk but does show a tendency to cluster during booms there is clear evidence of a long term secular relation between the level of innovative activity and the level of economic activity although this may have changed in the 1980s finally the data provide no reason for thinking that these clusters of innovation cause cyclic variations in economic activity but variations in economic activity do granger cause changes in innovative activity copyright 1995 by royal economic society

the reaper and the scanner indivisibility led incremental innovations and the adoption of new technologies widespread adoption of a new capital embodied technology requires a continu ous flow of incremental innovations a few of them address the key problem of indivisibility by making renting the new machine a viable alternative to buying it or by dividing it up into modular elements such incremental innovations differ from the learning by doing effects usually considered by diffusion models and greatly affect the structure of the adopting industry the case for keeping them in due account is made by revisiting paul david s classic paper on the mccormick reaper by criticising the subsequent evolution of threshold models of adoption and by summarising my own findings on the diffusion of electronic pre press devices

openness and innovation home and export demand effects on manufacturing innovation panel data evidence for ireland and switzerland abstract recent studies in the tradition of schmookler have re emphasised the potential role of demand in stimulating innovation here we reconsider the role of home and export market demand in stimulating manufacturing innovation using comparable panel data for two small open economies ireland and switzerland our analysis is based on the estimation of reduced form innovation production functions using panel data estimators over the sample period 1994 2005 for a range of innovation indicators however we find little evidence of any significant market demand effects with innovation performance instead determined largely by firm level capability effects and characteristics in policy and strategy terms this suggests the continued value of measures to improve innovation capability regardless of market demand conditions in more methodological terms our results suggest the validity of the usual assumption implicit in modelling innovation outputs that supply side factors predominate