pricing multiasset equity options how relevant is the dependence function abstract in this paper we test how different choices for the dependence function can affect the prices of a set of multiasset equity options we conduct the analysis for various 5 dimensional baskets of uk shares and a wide range of payoffs for the multiasset options consistent with the instruments traded on the market we also test the relevance of the dependence specification over both volatile and quiet market scenarios interestingly we find that in most circumstances the choice of a dependence structure richer than the standard linear correlation does not seem to affect option prices substantially however the dependence function becomes more relevant in particularly volatile market conditions

multiproduct short run hospital cost functions empirical evidence and policy implications from cross section data economists and policymakers have been interested in hospital costs and the structure of hospital technologies for several decades now early interest was focused on the possibility of scale economies which implied increased efficiency for larger hospitals 6 8 12 13 18 20 while more recent interest has been stimulated by the inflationary spiral of hospital costs 1 15 17 22 as hospital costs have risen important policy questions concerning the impact on costs of the hospitals diagnostic case mix the hospitals admitting physicians the hospitals size and the hospitals efficiency have emerged and researchers have attempted to deal with these issues within the context of increasingly complex econometric models 1 2 5 24 27 however in attempting to analyze these important policy issues researchers have been forced to make two major types of compromises on the one hand appropriate data are often not available for estimating a well specified cost function e g information on admitting physicians and diagnostic case mix are often missing so that problems of specification error often plague the econometric results conversely in using imaginative ways to deal with data problems e g weighting in patient and out patient care to form a single index of hospital services 1 27 or estimating separate cost functions for each department in the hospital 2 researchers sometimes place unrealistic and unnecessary constraints on their econometric models the purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of several of the primary hospital characteristics mentioned above on the short run costs of hospitals within a theoretically consistent framework in the following discussion we also develop the theoretical

a dynamic explanation of the willingness to pay and willingness to accept disparity a fundamental tenet in neoclassical theory is the basic independence assumption an individual s preferences are assumed to be measured over levels not changes although most theoretical and applied economic models invoke this assumption a wealth of data from laboratory experiments refutes this premise as systemic empirical disparities have been observed between willingness to pay wtp and willingness to accept wta for the same good e g kahneman knetsch and thaler 1990 with wta often observed to be many times larger than wta in an influential line of work hanemann 1991 argues that the large wta wtp disparities that have been observed in the literature can be reconciled with static neoclassical theory via income and substitution effects i but the empirical evidence to date has not conformed well to hanemann s 1991 or any other neoclassical based model 2 if the observed value disparity is inconsistent with neoclassical explanations and is found to be a fundamental component of individual s preferences as per reference dependent theory kahneman and tversky 1979 tversky and kahneman 1991 then a reevaluation of a good deal of economic analysis is necessary in this article we provide a different explanation for the wta wtp disparity a dynamic theory based on the presence of commitment costs and possibly asymmetric beliefs about market opportunities when the value of a good is uncertain wtp and wta will logically reflect compensation for the possibility of learning that the good has a different value than believed at the time of purchase or sale and the cost associated with reversing the purchase or sale decision in its simplest form our model predicts that with objective symmetric beliefs about market opportunities and with perfect substitutability and no income effects there should be no value disparity intuitively the objective cost of delaying the purchase or alternatively reversing the purchase for prospective buyers is isomorphic to the objective cost of reversing or delaying the sale for prospective sellers this symmetry necessarily leads to wta wtp consistent with the neoclassical paradigm importantly however it is an agent s perception of the delay and reversal costs that motivates behavior if agents behave in a manner consistent with the developing literature on cognitive dissonance and or limited memory it is quite plausible for individuals to display an asymmetric perception of the relative costs of selling later depending upon whether they are placed in the role of a buyer or seller 3 this type of asymmetry alone can yield the systematic value divergences observed in the literature indeed we show that even with only slight asymmetries in beliefs of perceived costs our theory can generate considerable value divergences because the actual divergence will depend upon the interaction of this asymmetry with the degree of value uncertainty time preference and lost value of consumption we explore the predictive power of our theory by examining wta and wtp statements of value from consumers in a competitive marketplace the sportscard market although we do not consider the sportscard marketplace particularly worthy of study in its own right it is useful for our purposes for several reasons first it is a natural setting for an examination of preference structures because it provides a rich pool of subjects making decisions in a familiar environment with uncertainty and future learning about the values of traded goods second we can identify factors that arise endogenously such as market experience and impose the remaining controls necessary to implement a clean experiment to explore whether such factors attenuate the value disparity through the channels predicted by our theory our data are striking in that agents display an asymmetric perception of the relative costs of selling later depending upon whether they are placed in the role of a buyer or seller

electricity outages in ghana are contingent valuation estimates valid african countries experience persistent and serious energy outages but while multiple valuation studies provide estimates of the costs of electricity outages in high income countries evidence is scarce for lower and middle income countries the few studies that assess the value of reliable energy supply rely on the contingent valuation method that is under wide scrutiny this paper aims to provide new estimates of households willingness to pay to reduce electricity outages for ghana and contributes to the debate on the validity of contingent valuation results for energy reliability our results suggest that households are willing to pay ghs 67 17 per month for reliable electricity supply equivalent to 7 of respondents income the results of tests for hypothetical bias wtp wta disparity and income effects suggest that the contingent valuation estimates from this study are robust and can support decision makers in prioritizing energy policies and investments

the disparity between willingness to accept and willingness to pay measures of value psychologists have long argued that people are much more averse to a loss than attracted to an equivalent gain this behavior termed loss aversion has been formalized by kahneman and tversky 1979 in their reformulation of expected utility theory prospect theory in prospect theory the utility function is replaced by a value function that evaluates changes in income from the current level increases in income are weighted by a relatively small marginal utility decreases in income are weighted by a much larger marginal utility in effect the value function implies that a kink in the relationship between utility and income occurs at the initial income or reference point and that the slope of the utility function for losses in income is steeper than it is for gains in a recent paper knetsch and sinden 1984 report a series of experiments that demonstrate the existence of a large disparity between willingness to accept wta and willingness to pay wtp measures of value they argue that the psychological theory of loss aversion explains this difference economic theory would suggest that individuals who exhibit a large disparity between wta and wtp are perhaps underperceiving the value of gains or overperceiving the value of losses are behaving in an irrational manner and will consequently achieve a lower level of well being than if they behaved in a true utility maximizing manner this would in contrast to loss aversion usually imply near equal values for wta and wtp see willig 1976 further documentation of a larger than expected disparity between wta and wtp has been obtained in surveys asking for the value of a variety of public goods for example cummings brookshire and schulze 1986 document six

compensation and productive efficiency in partnerships evidence from medical groups practice relatively little is known about the behavior and performance of firms organized as partnerships in this paper we attempt to fill that gap by developing and testing a model of the effect of alternative compensation arrangements on productive efficiency in medical group practices the technique employed is maximum likelihood production frontier estimation we provide a simple behavioral model of the determination of productive efficiency and a new interpretation of the economic measure of technical efficiency we derive a behavioral production function that relates production to individual responses to incentives and we indicate the impossibility of recovering the parameters of the production technology from observed behavior overall the empirical results indicate that incentives do affect productivity a larger number of members in a group decreases productivity while greater average experience leads to greater productivity

tempered stable and tempered infinitely divisible garch models abstract in this paper we introduce a new garch model with an infinitely divisible distributed innovation this model which we refer to as the rapidly decreasing tempered stable rdts garch model takes into account empirical facts that have been observed for stock and index returns such as volatility clustering non zero skewness and excess kurtosis for the residual distribution we review the classical tempered stable cts garch model which has similar statistical properties by considering a proper density transformation between infinitely divisible random variables we can find the risk neutral price process thereby allowing application to option pricing we propose algorithms to generate scenarios based on garch models with cts and rdts innovations to investigate the performance of these garch models we report parameter estimates for the dow jones industrial average index and stocks included in this index to demonstrate the advantages of the proposed model we calculate option prices based on the index

willingness to accept willingness to pay and the income effect abstract the gap between willingness to pay wtp and willingness to accept wta has previously been studied by searching for evidence of substitutability the neoclassical hypothesis or status quo bias testing for neoclassical versus psychological theories of preferences we study the gap differently asking whether the observed pairs of wta and wtp are consistent with neoclassical preferences we use sugden s alternatives to the neoclassical theory of choice in i bateman k g willis eds valuing environmental preferences theory and practice of the contingent valuation method in the us eu and developing countries oxford university press oxford pp 152 180 chapter 6 result showing that the effect of income on wtp can be approximated from information on the ratio wta wtp drawing inferences from a meta analysis of 201 wta wtp ratios we conclude that the data are not consistent with neoclassical preferences

monopolistic competition when price and quality are imperfectly observable consider the symmetric equilibrium of a monopolistically competitive industry in which manufacturers select price and quality to maximize expected profit and consumers maximize utility by conducting costly search among sellers using an optimal sequential search rule consumers search among sellers because i each consumer idiosyncratically evaluates each seller s quality and ii a retailing sector generates variation in the prices consumers pay consumers are handicapped in their search because their observations of firms price and quality levels are noisy an improvement in price information is represented by an increase in the precision with which consumers observe sellers prices similarly an improvement in quality information is represented by an increase in precision with which consumers observe sellers quality levels an improvement of either type of information may increase or decrease welfare the perverse case in which improved price information decreases welfare occurs when price competition among firms becomes so intense relative to quality competition that firms select severely suboptimal levels of quality a consumer searching among monopolistically competitive sellers may have difficulty accurately observing the price and quality of each seller s product he must infer from his prior beliefs and noisy observations the true values of the product s price and quality attributes we show that increasing the precision with which consumers observe an attribute of a product makes the inference problem easier and causes the demand the seller faces with respect to that attribute to become more elastic the equilibrium level of that attribute changes accordingly and since the equilibrium levels of price and quality interact the equilibrium level of the other attribute changes as well these equilibrium effects can be perverse in two ways first if the precision of quality observation is fixed then improvement in the precision of price observation can reduce welfare the chain of causation is this increasing the precision of price observation causes price to fall the resulting smaller price cost margin induces sellers to reduce quality de

balancing energy strategies in electricity portfolio management traditional management of electricity portfolios is focused on the day ahead market and futures of longer maturity within limits market participants can however also resort to the balancing energy market to close their positions in this paper we determine strategic positions in the balancing energy market and identify corresponding economic incentives in an analysis of the german balancing energy demand we find that those strategies allow an economically optimal starting point for real time balancing and create a marketplace for flexible capacity that is more open than alternative marketplaces the strategies we proffer in this paper we believe will contribute to an effective functioning of the electricity market

allocative inefficiency in the production of hospital services researchers have offered numerous theoretical models of hospital behavior that suggest inefficiency in the provision of hospital services explanations of inefficiency are tied to the organization and regulation of the industry principal agent problems and the dominance of third party reimbursement eakin and kniesner 3 use a non minimum cost function to obtain estimates of allocative inefficiency for 331 u s short term hospitals in this paper i fill a void in the hospital cost literature by investigating variations in allocative inefficiency in the short term hospital industry this is done by regressing the allocative inefficiency estimates from eakin and kniesner against hospital characteristics predicted by theory as determinants of inefficiency i define allocative inefficiency at the firm level but from a social point of view specifically allocative inefficiency results from the technically efficient employment of inputs in a combination which is not cost minimizing a hospital may choose a non cost minimizing set of inputs if it evaluates the shadow prices of inputs as being different from the actual prices a shadow price is the hospital s internal perception of the unit cost of an input this perception may differ from the actual input price if for example the input enters directly into the hospital s objective function the hospital is assumed to minimize shadow cost by equating the marginal rate of technical substitution and the ratio of input shadow prices thus it is the shadow cost function that is dual to the underlying technology the hospital is modelled as a multiproduct firm a modified translog cost function is used to develop a system of observed cost and share equations which is estimated via seemingly unrelated non linear regressions empirical results indicate that overcapitalization and underemployment of physicians increase short term hospital costs by about 5 percent hospital care expenditures are about 4 5 percent of the gross national product which is almost three times the percentage in 1960 thus 5 percent represents a large amount in actual dollars further investigation identifies hospital size market share regulations and geographic region as the hospital characteristics related to the measure of allocative inefficiency this paper is organized as follows in section ii i develop the empirical model based on a non minimum cost function the traditional minimum cost function is a special case and thus

testing commitment cost theory in choice experiments in choice experiments it is commonly assumed that individuals make choices in static and certainty decision making conditions real world choices however are usually made in a dynamic setting committing a purchase decision under conditions of uncertainty might have a commitment cost cc in this study we test cc theory using a nonhypothetical choice experiment specifically we test whether choice behavior and willingness to pay estimates differ when individuals have the option to gain present or delayed information or reverse the transaction our results suggest that the construction of a dynamic decision context can be relevant in the design of choice experiments

estimating a non minimum cost function for hospitals hospital costs have been rigorously scrutinized by economists and health policy experts for several decades despite the large volume of research two related problems persist first although theoretical models of hospital behavior such as 9 and 10 suggest systematic deviations from cost minimization there has been little attention given to modelling and measuring this inefficiency second because cost minimization is a questionable maintained hypothesis most hospital cost research has not used cost functions that are dual to production technology consequently the technological concepts of scale and factor substitution are obscured we address these twin problems by developing and estimating a long run cost function that allows for systematic allocative inefficiency the parameter estimates we present also provide information on the traditional production concepts of scale and factor substitution as well as information on the size and source of allocative inefficiency in u s hospitals hospital services clearly comprise a large industry short term hospital expenditures were 120 billion in 1984 for example the u s short term hospital sector has increased in relative size by a factor of 2 5 since 1960 so that short term hospital expenditures are now about 3 6 percent of the gnp in the united states while industry size alone probably justifies an empirical investigation into the production technology for hospital services we are also motivated by the relevance of our findings to several health policy issues measures of scale economies are crucial in forming public policies concerning entry exit and mergers in the hospital industry yet most studies have not actually estimated the technological concept of scale elasticities of factor substitution are also technological and economic concepts that should be of interest to health policy makers these measures indicate the extent to which cost increases can be avoided by substituting away from the factor whose price has increased hospital cost estimates that do not include factor

parametric estimation of technical and allocative inefficiency with panel data the error components approach to estimating allocative inefficiency imposes restrictive assumptions on the distributions of the errors and functional form the parametric approach does not require special assumptions about the error distribution or technology but typically assumes technical efficiency or restrictive functional forms the parametric approach also allows for systematic firm responses to shadow prices the authors generalize the parametric approach to a panel data setting and show that input and firm specific allocative inefficiency as well as firm specific technical inefficiency can be identified and estimated using a flexible functional form this is demonstrated empirically with an application to u s airlines copyright 1994 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

financial market models with levy processes and time varying volatility abstract asset management and pricing models require the proper modeling of the return distribution of financial assets while the return distribution used in the traditional theories of asset pricing and portfolio selection is the normal distribution numerous studies that have investigated the empirical behavior of asset returns in financial markets throughout the world reject the hypothesis that asset return distributions are normally distribution alternative models for describing return distributions have been proposed since the 1960s with the strongest empirical and theoretical support being provided for the family of stable distributions with the normal distribution being a special case of this distribution since the turn of the century specific forms of the stable distribution have been proposed and tested that better fit the observed behavior of historical return distributions more specifically subclasses of the tempered stable distribution have been proposed in this paper we propose one such subclass of the tempered stable distribution which we refer to as the kr distribution we empirically test this distribution as well as two other recently proposed subclasses of the tempered stable distribution the carr geman madan yor cgmy distribution and the modified tempered stable mts distribution the advantage of the kr distribution over the other two distributions is that it has more flexible tail parameters for these three subclasses of the tempered stable distribution which are infinitely divisible and have exponential moments for some neighborhood of zero we generate the exponential levy market models induced from them we then construct a new garch model with the infinitely divisible distributed innovation and three subclasses of that garch model that incorporates three observed properties of asset returns volatility clustering fat tails and skewness we formulate the algorithm to find the risk neutral return processes for those garch models using the change of measure for the tempered stable distributions to compare the performance of those exponential levy models and the garch models we report the results of the parameters estimated for the s p 500 index and investigate the out of sample forecasting performance for those garch models for the s p 500 option prices

willingness to pay compensating variation and the cost of commitment hicksian welfare theory is static in nature but many decisions are made in a dynamic environment we present a dynamic model of an agent s decision to purchase or sell a good under the realistic conditions of uncertainty irreversibility and learning over time her willingness to pay wtp contains both the intrinsic value of the good as in hicksian theory plus a commitment cost associated with delaying to obtain more information the hicksian equivalence between wtp willingness to accept wta and compensating and equivalent variations no longer holds the wtp and wta divergence may arise and observed wtp values are not always appropriate for welfare analysis jel d60 d83

extracting market information from equity options with exponential levy processes levy processes have been successfully applied in the modeling of financial assets useful information such as implied volatility skewness and risk preferences can be derived from market option prices in this paper we advocate using esscher conjugate levy processes to estimate risk neutral and empirical densities more specifically we employ the exponential meixner and nig processes to calculate in closed form the pricing kernel in the equity market and then study the evolution of equity market behavior between 2002 and 2010 our empirical analysis using s p 500 options shows that the risk preferences of equity investors were signalling an anomaly in the market well before the subprime prime mortgage crisis august 2007 and the crisis of confidence that followed anticipating the downfall in equity markets in 2008 but then returning to normal levels in 2009

a garch option pricing model with α stable innovations we develop an option pricing model which is based on a garch asset return process with stable innovations with truncated tails the approach utilizes a canonic martingale measure as pricing measure which provides the possibility of a model calibration to market prices the garch stable option pricing model allows the explanation of some well known anomalies in empirical data as volatility clustering and heavy tailedness of the return distribution finally the results of monte carlo simulations concerning the option price and the implied volatility with respect to different strike and maturity levels are presented

time series analysis for financial market meltdowns abstract there appears to be a consensus that the recent instability in global financial markets may be attributable in part to the failure of financial modeling more specifically it is alleged that current risk models have failed to properly assess the risks associated with large adverse stock price behavior in this paper we first discuss the limitations of classical time series models for forecasting financial market meltdowns then we set forth a framework capable of forecasting both extreme events and highly volatile markets based on the empirical evidence presented in this paper our framework offers an improvement over prevailing models for evaluating stock market risk exposure during distressed market periods

a closed form garch option valuation model this paper develops a closed form option valuation formula for a spot asset whose variance follows a garch p q process that can be correlated with the returns of the spot asset it provides the first readily computed option formula for a random volatility model that can be estimated and implemented solely on the basis of observables the single lag version of this model contains heston s 1993 stochastic volatility model as a continuous time limit empirical analysis on s p500 index options shows that the out of sample valuation errors from the single lag version of the garch model are substantially lower than the ad hoc black scholes model of dumas fleming and whaley 1998 that uses a separate implied volatility for each option to fit to the smirk smile in implied volatilities the garch model remains superior even though the parameters of the garch model are held constant and volatility is filtered from the history of asset prices while the ad hoc black scholes model is updated every period the improvement is largely due to the ability of the garch model to simultaneously capture the correlation of volatility with spot returns and the path dependence in volatility article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

a new explanation for the wtp wta disparity abstract we propose a new explanation for the wtp wta disparity in experiments and surveys uncertainty irreversibility and limited learning opportunities can generate commitment costs driving a wedge between wtp and wta we present experimental evidence that supports our hypothesis

exchange economies and loss exposure experiments exchange economies were created in which individuals faced losses if people are risk seeking in the losses as predicted by prospect theory then due to the nonconvexity the competitive equilibria are all on the boundaries of the edgeworth box the experimental results are that risk seeking behavior is observed in many people and appears in markets as predicted in addition market behavior is consistent with answers to hypothetical questionnaires contrary to prospect theory risk seeking seems to diminish with experience preferences in the market setting are not labile and risk seeking preferences are not simply a result of framing effects copyright 1997 by american economic association

the fine structure of asset returns an empirical investigation we investigate the importance of diffusion and jumps in a new model for asset returns in contrast to standard models we allow for jump components displaying finite or infinite activity and variation empirical investigations of time series indicate that index dynamics are devoid of a diffusion component which may be present in the dynamics of individual stocks this leads to the conjecture confirmed on options data that the risk neutral process should be free of a diffusion component we conclude that the statistical and risk neutral processes for equity prices are pure jump processes of infinite activity and finite variation

willingness to pay and willingness to accept how much can they differ comment i agree with the point made by edoh y amiran and daniel a hagen 2003 that there can be a substantial or even infinite divergence between the wta and wtp for a public good even where there is a nonzero elasticity of substitution between market goods and the public good provided that the indifference curves are asymptotically bounded with respect to market goods in the manner they describe this is an important point they are also correct to point out that the elasticity of substitution is a local concept whereas their asymptotic boundedness condition applies also for discrete changes my 1991 paper used a local analysis because it was following the structure of the analysis in robert d willig 1976 and alan randall and john r stoll 1980 i wanted to show that while randall and stoll appeared to extend willig s local result on wta versus wtp from price changes to changes in the quantity of a public good the relevant elasticity was in fact different and involved the substitution elasticity as well as the income elasticity i view these points by amiran and hagen as not two separate results but essentially the same result their asymptotic boundedness condition generalizes my zero elasticity of substitution condition to discrete changes the asymptotic boundedness condition can be expressed as follows assuming a bivariate utility function u x q and given a reference point x q associated with a reference utility level u u x q there exists some q q such that for all q q there exists no x such that u x q u in other words no amount of x can substitute for the reduction in public good from q to q q in the case of a zero elasticity of substitution q q but as amiran and hagen show in their theorem 1 this is unnecessarily restrictive when dealing with a discrete reduction in q furthermore their theorem 2 can be viewed as a special case of their theorem 1 in which q 0 which makes q an essential commodity it is well known in consumer theory that the wta to avoid the loss of an essential market good is infinite their theorem 2 extends this result to the case of an essential nonmarket good but as their theorem 1 shows essentialness is not necessary for an infinite wta the boundedness condition is the key and this implies a fundamental lack of substitutability between money market goods and the public good

assessing competition with the panzar rosse model the role of scale costs and equilibrium the panzar rosse test has been widely applied to assess competitive conduct often in specifications controlling for firm scale or using a price equation we show that neither a price equation nor a scaled revenue function yields a valid measure for competitive conduct moreover even an unscaled revenue function generally requires additional information about costs and market equilibrium to infer the degree of competition our theoretical findings are confirmed by an empirical analysis of competition in banking using a sample containing more than 100 000 bank year observations on more than 17 000 banks in 63 countries during the years 1994 2004

cvar sensitivity with respect to tail thickness abstract the sensitivity of a risk measure with respect to the parameters of the hypothesized distribution is a useful tool in investigating the impact of marginal rebalancing decisions on the portfolio return distribution and also in the analysis of the asymptotic variability of the risk estimator we calculate the relative importance of the conditional value at risk cvar sensitivity with respect to tail thickness and scale of the portfolio return distribution in the case of regularly varying tails and in the case of exponential and faster than exponential decay we discuss the implications for asset return modeling and the asymptotic variability of the risk estimator

cognitive dissonance status and growth of the underclass we present a model of cognitive adaptation to examine the growth and behaviours of the underclass in the model individuals experiencing cognitive dissonance between status seeking and social recognition adapt their attitudes regarding what is deemed status worthy this yields the endogenous formation of an underclass in which non pecuniary social returns counteract the effect of traditional incentives i e wages in motivating behaviour by gaining insight into the process of psychological adaptation of those living in poverty the paper sheds light on economic policies that mitigate the disenfranchisement and hence the growth of the underclass

market structure and the role of consumer information in the physician services industry an empirical test abstract this paper applies panzar and rosse s 1987 econometric test of market structure to examine two long debated issues what is the market structure for physician services do more physicians in a market area raise the search cost of obtaining consumer information and increase prices satterthwaite 1979 1985 for primary care and general and family practice physicians the monopolistically competitive model prevailed over the competing hypotheses monopoly perfect competition and monopolistic competition characterized by consumer informational confusion although less conclusive there is some evidence to support the monopolistically competitive model for surgeons and the consumer informational confusion model for internal medicine physicians