estimating a model of strategic network choice the convenience store industry in okinawa this paper investigates a determinant of location choice for multistore retailing firms the trade off between the business stealing effect and the cost saving effect from clustering their own stores i present an empirical model of network choice by two multistore firms i use lattice theoretical results to address the computational burden of solving for an equilibrium in store networks the framework integrates the static entry game of complete information with post entry outcome data while using simulations to correct for the selection of entrants i present an application of the model to the case of the convenience store industry in okinawa island japan using unique cross sectional data on store networks and revenues i use parameter estimates to examine the impact of a hypothetical horizontal merger on store configurations costs and profits results suggest a retailer s trade off between cost savings and lost revenues from clustering its stores is positive across markets and negative within a market i find an acquirer of a hypothetical merger of two multistore firms would decrease its number of stores in suburbs but increase its number in the city center

theoretical approaches to monetary disinflation abstract during the 1980s many countries adopted tight monetary policies to reduce high inflation rates which were the legacy of the 1970s as inflation threatens to rise at the beginning of this decade this paper provides a survey of the 1980s literature which sought to provide theoretical understandings of how monetary disinflation is achieved four models are presented monetarist neo keynesian new classical and post keynesian each model s explanation of the recession which accompanies the monetary disinflation is outlined as well as possible policy measures to reduce the extent of the recession and to hasten the return to full employment

structural workshop paper discrete choice models of consumer demand in marketing marketing researchers have used models of consumer demand to forecast future sales to describe and test theories of behavior and to measure the response to marketing interventions the basic framework typically starts from microfoundations of expected utility theory to obtain an econometric system that describes consumers choices over available options and to thus characterize product demand the basic framework has been augmented significantly to account for quantity choices to accommodate purchases of several products on a single purchase occasion multiple discreteness and multicategory purchases and to allow for asymmetric switching between brands across different price tiers these extensions have enabled researchers to bring the analysis to bear on several related marketing phenomena of interest this paper has three main objectives the first objective is to articulate the main goals of demand analysis forecasting measurement and testing and to highlight several considerations associated with these goals our second objective is to describe the main building blocks of individual level demand models we discuss approaches built on direct and indirect utility specifications of demand systems and we review extensions that have appeared in the marketing literature the third objective is to explore a few emerging directions in demand analysis including considering demand side dynamics combining purchase data with primary information and using semiparametric and nonparametric approaches we hope researchers new to this literature will take away a broader perspective on these models and see the potential for new directions in future research

estimating demand for spatially differentiated firms with unobserved quantities and limited price data extending the circular city model i derive a pricing equation that identifies key structural parameters from one firm s data simulations indicate demand shifters and rotators can be distinguished cost parameters are imprecise and the likeliest specification error biases estimates toward zero

are local minimum wages absorbed by price increases estimates from internet based restaurant menus the authors analyze 884 internet based restaurant menus from inside and outside san jose california which they collected before and after the city implemented a 25 minimum wage increase in 2013

targeting rules for monetary policy abstract we develop a framework for the analysis of targeting rules for monetary policy derive the optimal money supply rule and use an explicit criterion to evaluate the relative desirability of other targeting rules governing the money supply process

estimating markups and market conduct with multidimensional product attributes we demonstrate how to estimate a model of oligopoly pricing when products are multi dimensionally differentiated we provide an empirical counterpart to recent theoretical work on product differentiation using specifications informed by economic theory we estimate price cost margins for products differentiated in many dimensions

comment on endogenous objectives and the evaluation of targeting rules for monetary policy 1 four mccallum principles itis bothanprivilege andapleasureformetoparticipateinthisconferenceinhonorofbennettt mccallum henceforthbtm thus beforeproceedingtomakespeci c comments regarding carl walsh s elegant paper on endogenous objectivesand targeting rules i would like to begin by providing some context in light ofbtm snumerouscontributionstotheanalysisofmonetarypolicy forthispurpose itishelpfultohighlightfourbasicprinciplesofeffectivemonetarypolicythatbtmhas consistently emphasized over the past several decades given the logicalcoherencyandintuitiveappealofhisworkonthissubject itisonlynaturaltorefertothesefourpointsasthe mccallumprinciples the rstmccallumprincipleisthatmonetarypolicymatters thatis theconductof monetary policy can have important consequences for social welfare btmanalyzedthetheoreticalandempiricalunderpinningsofthisprincipleinaseriesof

durable goods oligopoly abstract this paper models a durable goods oligopoly as a differential game two cases are treated sales where firms cannot lease but must sell the good in question and leasing where firms do not sell but only rent in the sales case firms face increasing marginal cost of production and the good in question depreciates for this case a rational expectations feedback nash equilibrium is constructed for which monopoly or oligopoly output is less than the efficient level this gap between oligopoly and competitive output diminishes as the number of firms increases when firms can only lease the good the good is assumed not to depreciate and the monopoly level of steady state output is compared with the level of steady state output for a feedback equilibrium duopoly for this case the duopoly equilibrium has steady state output that is less than the corresponding efficient level but greater than the monopoly level the leasing model is shown to be isomorphic to the adjustment cost duopoly model of driskill and mccafferty journal of economic theory 49 1989 324 338

executive effort and selection of risky projects this article examines the incentives of executives to adopt risky projects the agency problem considered is that of motivating the executive to expend effort to generate information about the profitability of projects and to select the best project conditional upon the information that his effort generates we show that the executive and the principal will not always agree regarding which project is best we provide conditions under which this conflict of interest leads from the principal s perspective to either an underinvestment or an overinvestment in risky projects

price competition under mixed multinomial logit demand functions in this paper we postulate a general class of price competition models with mixed multinomial logit demand functions under affine cost functions in these models the market is partitioned into a finite set of market segments we characterize the equilibrium behavior of this class of models in the case where each product in the market is sold by a separate independent firm we identify a simple and very broadly satisfied condition under which a pure nash equilibrium exists and the set of nash equilibria coincides with the solutions of the system of first order condition equations a property of essential importance to empirical studies this condition specifies that in every market segment each firm captures less than 50 of the potential customer population when pricing at a specific level that under the condition is an upper bound for a rational price choice for the firm irrespective of the competitors prices we show that under a somewhat stronger but still broadly satisfied version of the abov

on managerial contracting with asymmetric information abstract this paper deals with asymmetric information in a two period principal agent model where the agent makes investment decisions after observing a private signal we study the case where the current employer has more information than other prospect employers and the case where the private information is not verifiable by the current employer we analyze the effect of these asymmetries on the wage contracts as well as their interplay

estimating store choices with endogenous shopping bundles and price uncertainty abstract we develop a structural model of retail store choices for which household shopping plans and price beliefs are endogenously determined in our model individual households make their store choices based on their expected basket costs which are determined by their shopping plans and price beliefs previous studies use realized purchases as a proxy for unobserved shopping lists and also assume homogenous price expectation across all households over the entire sample period our approach improves the measures of expected basket costs by estimating intended shopping lists of households using a duration model and also by constructing household time store and goods specific price expectations in our empirical application using a scanner data set we find that the store choices become significantly more elastic to prices when the correction is applied

spatial differentiation and vertical mergers in retail markets for gasoline this paper studies an empirical model of spatial competition applied to gasoline markets the main feature is to specify commuting paths as the locations of consumers in a hotelling style model as a result spatial differentiation depends in an intuitive way on the structure of the road network and the direction of traffic flows the model is estimated using panel data on the quebec city gasoline market and used to evaluate the consequences of a recent vertical merger difference in difference and counterfactual simulation methods are compared and the results to a large extent validate the assumptions of the demand model jel g34 l13 l42 l81 q41 r41

spatial differentiation and price discrimination in the cement industry evidence from a structural model we estimate a structural model of the cement industry that incorporates spatial differentiation and price discrimination focusing on the us southwest over 1983 2003 we leverage the structure of the model to obtain consistent estimates of the underlying parameters using data on market outcomes that are substantially aggregated our results indicate that transportation costs around 0 46 per tonne mile rationalize the data this friction enables relatively isolated plants to obtain higher prices from nearby customers we further find that disallowing price discrimination would create 30 million in consumer surplus annually and show how the model can identify suitable divestitures in merger analysis

localized competition heterogeneous firms and vertical relations this paper investigates the link between firms geographic configuration and market power in imperfect markets we consider two related setups the first illustrates the relevant characteristics of the pricing equilibrium a main implication is that the equilibrium price vector changes in accordance with the firms spatial configuration the second where firms operate as downstream retailers affiliated to rival upstream wholesalers shows that upstream market power is strongly affected by an index of geographic concentration which reflects the spatial configuration of retailers finally our analysis provides several insights for market delineation as well as merger evaluation and remedies

rivalry in price and location by differentiated product manufacturers in this article we estimate a model of strategic rivalry between food manufacturers in product design and pricing we derive a spatial structural model in which food manufacturers jointly select prices and the optimal attribute composition of their product lines we find that manufacturers have an incentive to locate yogurt products nearby others in attribute space and that products with the most similar attribute compositions enjoy the widest price cost margins our findings explain the observation that most consumer package goods tend to be very similar yet manufacturers appear to earn above normal profits copyright 2013 oxford university press

incentives for information production and optimal job assignment with human capital considerations in this paper we examine the problem of inducing a manager to acquire information which is useful in determining his optimal job assignment but which might also adversely affect his market value we show that spot contracts are optimal and generate the first best effort level when the manager is risk neutral when the manager is risk averse the optimal contact consists either of a partial insurance contract against downward revisions in compensation or a competitive spot contract depending upon the nature of prior information

a theory of wage dynamics a dynamic equilibrium model of long term implicit labour contracts under incomplete but symmetric information is developed workers are assumed to be risk averse and of unknown ability or productivity risk neutral firms learn as do workers about each worker s productivity by observing the worker s output over time it is shown that equilibrium contracts provide for wages which never decline with age and increase only when the worker s market value increases above his current wage in addition to characterizing the equilibrium wage contract we also derive some of its implications for the behaviour of aggregate wages across various groups of workers these implications explain some findings in the recent empirical literature on ageearnings profiles in particular our model can explain why earnings may be positively related to experience even after controlling for productivity as some empirical studies have indicated

mergers with differentiated products the case of the ready to eat cereal industry traditional merger analysis is difficult to implement when evaluating mergers in industries with differentiated products i discuss an alternative which consists of demand estimation and the use of a model of postmerger conduct to simulate the competitive effects of a merger i estimate a brand level demand system for ready to eat cereal using supermarket scanner data and use the estimates to 1 recover marginal costs 2 simulate postmerger price equilibria and 3 compute welfare effects under a variety of assumptions the methodology is applied to five mergers two of which occurred and for which i compare predicted to actual outcomes

the temporal and spatial dimensions of price search insights from matching household survey and purchase data abstract price promotions are pervasive in grocery markets a household can respond to price promotions by effectively cherry picking through 1 spatial price search across stores and 2 temporal price search across time however extant research has analyzed these two dimensions of price search only separately and therefore underestimates both the consumer response to price promotions and the impact of promotions on retail profit in this article the authors introduce an integrated analysis of spatial and temporal price search they seek answers to three questions first what are the predictors of household decisions to perform either spatial or temporal price search second how effective are the temporal spatial and spatiotemporal price search strategies in obtaining lower prices and third what is the impact of alternative price search strategies on retailer profit the authors use a unique data collection approach that combines household surveys with observed purchase data to address these que

the effect of ownership structure on prices in geographically differentiated industries i analyze how ownership structure and market geography jointly influence fast food prices i estimate a model of demand and supply that accounts for the market geography and run counterfactual experiments that demonstrate how mergers affect prices i find that the impact of mergers can be large that this impact decreases as the merging outlets are farther apart that mergers among market leaders generally increase prices more than mergers among weaker firms and that mergers can increase prices even if the outlets are so far apart that neither outleti s presence affects prices at the other before the merger

learning experimentation and monetary policy abstract we present a model of monetary policy where the policymaker faces uncertainty about which he is learning in a bayesian fashion a fixed money supply rule is not optimal since the learning leads to adjustments in the monetary action we present cases in which it is optimal to bear some cost in terms of current output performance in order to gain information that can be used in the formulation of future monetary policy experimentation therefore pays we also show that even passive learning without experimentation still leads to an activist monetary policy i e one that is responsive to new information

the effect of promotion on consumption buying more and consuming it faster the authors empirically demonstrate the existence of flexible consumption rates in packaged goods products how this phenomenon can be modeled and its importance in assessing the effectiveness of

measuring market power in the ready to eat cereal industry the ready to eat cereal industry is characterized by high concentration high price cost margins large advertising to sales ratios and numerous introductions of new products previous researchers have concluded that the ready to eat cereal industry is a classic example of an industry with nearly collusive pricing behavior and intense nonprice competition this paper empirically examines this conclusion in particular i estimate price cost margins but more importantly i am able empirically to separate these margins into three sources i that which is due to product differentiation ii that which is due to multi product firm pricing and iii that due to potential price collusion the results suggest that given the demand for different brands of cereal the first two effects explain most of the observed price cost margins i conclude that prices in the industry are consistent with noncollusive pricing behavior despite the high price cost margins leading firms are able to maintain a portfolio of differentiated products and influence the perceived product quality it is these two factors that lead to high price cost margins

combining micro and macro data in microeconometric models or panel samples to improve accuracy of estimation in this paper we show how to do this efficiently we show that the gains from use of marginal information can be substantial we also discuss how to test the compatibility of sample and marginal information

turf wars product line strategies in competitive markets in this paper we study product line scope and pricing decisions in a horizontally differentiated duopoly past research has shown that a firm may offer a broader product line to attract higher demand or charge a higher price or both and benefit at the expense of its competitor we show that such outcomes may be reversed especially when consumers have relatively high valuation and low heterogeneity in their preferences for the line extension we find that an equilibrium exists such that only one firm prefers to expand scope but profits may be higher for both firms even in the absence of market size expansion this is because a broader scope permits that firm to effectively price discriminate by raising prices for its core customers the competitor optimally responds by lowering prices to gain share and earn a higher profit thus higher prices for the firm expanding its product line translate into higher demand for the competing firm thus increasing profit for both we show that our results hold when firms deploy generic offensive or defensive strategies during product line expansion

the economics of cross border travel abstract we model the decision to travel across an international border as a trade off between benefits derived from buying a range of products at lower prices and the costs of travel we estimate the model using microdata on canada united states travel price differences motivate cross border travel a 10 home appreciation raises the propensity to cross by 8 to 26 the larger elasticity arises when the home currency is strong a result predicted by the model distance to the border strongly inhibits crossings with an implied cost of 87 cents per mile geographic differences can partially explain why american travel is less exchange rate responsive

retail gasoline pricing what do we know abstract we use a data set consisting of a three year panel of prices from a sample of gasoline stations located in suburban washington dc and a corresponding census of the region s stations to develop three new empirical findings about retail gasoline pricing first while average retail margins vary substantially over time by more than 50 over the three years we analyze the shape of the margin distribution remains relatively constant second there is substantial heterogeneity in pricing behavior stations charging very low or very high prices are more likely to maintain their pricing position than stations charging prices near the mean third retail gasoline pricing is dynamic despite the heterogeneity in station pricing behavior stations frequently change their relative pricing position in this distribution sometimes dramatically we then relate these three findings to relevant theories of retail pricing while many models of retail pricing are consistent with some of our findings we find that all have serious shortcomings

competition and collusion in the american automobile industry the 1955 price war movements in total quantity and in quality adjusted price suggest a supply side shock in the american automobile market in 1955 this paper tests the hypothesis that the shock was a transitory change in industry conduct a price war the key ingredients of the test are alternative equilibrium models of oligopoly under product differentiation in nonnested cox tests of hypotheses a collusive solution is sustained in 1954 and in 1956 while a competitive solution holds in 1955 the result does not appear to be an artifact since it is robust in tests against alternative specifications copyright 1987 by blackwell publishing ltd

the pricing behavior of italian gas stations some evidence from the cuneo retail fuel market abstract this paper studies how gas stations adjust their gasoline and diesel prices in response to their neighboring competitors the empirical analysis relies on data collected from january to august 2011 on the daily prices of 20 gas stations located in cuneo italy these data show significant price uniformity especially within the same geographical area of the town approximately one third of gas stations responded within a day to targeted competitors price changes indicating some evidence of price matching behavior in the industry additionally there is some but discontinuous geographical price propagation testifying to the presence of a weak domino effect finally spatial econometric analysis suggests that there is spatial dependence between gas stations up to about 1 1 km

measuring the business stealing cannibalization and market expansion effects of entry in the u s motion picture exhibition market using a large and comprehensive theater level database covering over 18 billion in theater revenues over a five year period i document the extent and nature of business stealing revenue cannibalization and market expansion that occurred during the height of the 1990 s boom in movie theater construction

supermarket choice and supermarket competition in market equilibrium multi store firms are common in the retailing industry theory suggests that cross elasticities between stores of the same firm enhance market power to evaluate the importance of this effect in the u k supermarket industry we estimate a model of consumer choice and expenditure using three data sources profit margins for each chain a survey of consumer choices and a data set of store characteristics to permit plausible substitution patterns the utility model interacts consumer and store characteristics we measure market power by calculating the effect of merger and demerger on nash equilibrium prices demerger reduces the prices of the largest firms by between 2 and 3 8 depending on local concentration mergers between the largest firms lead to price increases up to 7 4

a treatment effect method for merger analysis with an application to parking prices in paris we propose a method of building control groups for retrospective merger evaluation the procedure involves two parameters a distance or radius and an order of exposure reflecting the notion that a merger can affect an outlet in a more or less direct way we implement the method of estimating the price effect of a merger in the paris parking market and illustrate the consequences of including indirectly exposed outlets in the control group the methodology applies to any industry with spatial competition and allows one to check the sensitivity of the results to the choice of the control group

the forerunners of new monetary economics proposals to stabilize the unit of account note this paper critically evaluates the monetary policy regimes proposed by arthur kitson 1917 and henry meulen 1934 contrary to the assertion of tyler cowen and randall kroszner 1987 the unit of account envisioned by these earlier theorists was not at all like recent proposals by proponents of the new monetary economics it is also demonstrated that the compensated dollar plans of aneurin williams 1892 and irving fisher 1920 are closer forerunners to the recent new monetary economics proposals copyright 1990 by ohio state university press

rational shopping behavior and the option value of variable pricing when a product s price fluctuates at a store how should rational cost minimizing shoppers shop for it specifically how frequently should they visit the store and how much of the product should they buy when they get there would this rational shopping behavior differ across every day low price edlp and promotional pricing hilo stores if shoppers are rational which retail price format is more profitable edlp or hilo to answer these questions we develop a normative model that shows how rational customers should shop when the price of the product is random we derive a closed form expression for the optimal purchasing policy and show that the optimal quantity to purchase under a given price scenario is linearly decreasing in the difference between the price under that scenario and the average price this purchase flexibility due to price variability has a direct impact on shopping frequency indeed the benefit of this purchase flexibility can be captured via an option value that implicitly reduces the fixed cost associated with each shopping trip consequently rational shoppers should shop more often and buy fewer units per trip when they face higher price variability our results suggest that if two stores charge the same average price for a product rational shoppers incur a lower level of expenditure at the store with a higher price variability since stores with different price variabilities coexist in practice we expect stores with higher price variability to charge a higher average price thus given two stores a higher relative mean price for a given item should be indicative of higher price variability and vice versa these model implications are tested using multicategory scanner panel data from 513 households and pricing data for three stores two edlp stores and one hilo store and 33 product categories over a two year period we find strong empirical support for the model implications

product positioning and competition the role of location in the fast food industry this paper examines optimal product positioning strategies of asymmetric firms in the context of retail outlet locations in the fast food industry the relationships between profits and product differentiation reveal that both mcdonald s and burger king are better off avoiding close competition if the market area is large enough however in small market areas mcdonald s would prefer to be located together with burger king rather than have the two outlets be only a slight distance apart in contrast burger king s profits always increase with greater differentiation offsetting these incentives is the desirability of locating centrally to appeal to the most customers the equilibrium depends on the market s size in small markets mcdonald s locates near the center of the market and burger king locates to the side of the market in larger markets mcdonald s and burger king choose locations on opposite sides of the market although mcdonald s locates closer to the optimal central location than burger king i also show that the role of price competition on product positioning is fundamentally different under asymmetric competition than under symmetric competition price competition unambiguously induces symmetric firms toward differentiation in contrast with asymmetric firms price competition shifts burger king s incentives toward locating closer to mcdonald s even while price competition increases mcdonald s desire for differentiation as a result equilibrium locations with asymmetric firms are approximately the same regardless of whether prices adjust with location

depreciation erodes the coase conjecture if a durable good monopolist produces at constant marginal costs and the good depreciates there exists a family of strong markov perfect equilibrium smpe one member of this family entails instantaneous production of the level of stock produced in a competitive equilibrium this is consistent with the coase conjecture other smpe in the family entail steady state production at a stock level lower than in the competitive equilibrium there may be a jump to these steady states or they may be approached asymptotically monopoly profits are positive in these equilibria and the coase conjecture fails

an empirical model of firm entry with endogenous product type choices i describe a model of entry with endogenous product type choices these choices are formalized as the outcomes of a game of incomplete information in which rivals differentiated products have nonuniform competitive effects on profits i estimate the model for location choices in the video retail industry using a nested fixed point algorithm solution the results imply significant returns to product differentiation simulations illustrate the tradeoff between demand and intensified competition and the extent to which markets with more scope for differentiation support greater entry

firm types price setting strategies and consumption tax incidence abstract we analyze price responses to large restaurant vat rate reductions in two different european countries our results show that responses in the short and medium run were clustered around two focal points of zero pass through and full pass through differences between independent restaurants and chains is the key explanation for this pattern while nearly all independent restaurants effectively ignored the tax reductions and left consumer prices unchanged a substantial fraction of restaurants belonging to chains chose a rapid and complete pass through in the longer run prices converged but primarily through a price reversion among chain restaurants the stark difference in price responses does not appear to arise because of different market characteristics such as location initial price levels meal types and restaurant segment

public monopoly and economic efficiency evidence from the pennsylvania liquor control board s entry decisions we estimate a spatial model of liquor demand to analyze the impact of government controlled retailing on entry patterns in the absence of the pennsylvania liquor control board the state would have roughly 2 5 times the current number of stores higher consumer surplus and lower payments to liquor store employees with just over half the number of stores that would maximize welfare the government system is instead best rationalized as profit maximization with profit sharing government operation mitigates but does not eliminate free entry s bias against rural consumers we find only limited evidence of political influence on entry jel d42 d72 l11 l12 l43 l81

instrument choice for money stock control with contemporaneous and lagged reserve requirements note this paper assumes that an economy s monetary author1ty wishes to achieve accurate control of the stock of money and asks whether that goal can be more fully accomplished by means of an operating procedure that manipulates interest rates or reserve aggregates while a sizable number of papers on the subject has been published 1 we believe this is the first to utilize a model that treats output and prices as endogeneous is explicitly dynamic and incorporates rational expectations given recent interest in monetary control issues it is striking that no such analysis has previously been conducted a likely reason is that until very recently it appeared that the values of all nominal magnitudes will be indeterminate in most rational expectations models if the monetary authority uses an interest rate as its operating instrument this appearance was fostered by a result in the well known paper of sargent and wallace 9 and by recognition that similar results hold in other rational expectations models including ones without the policy ineffectiveness property 2 it is shown in 5 however that this indeterminacy does not prevail if an interest rate instrument is used but in a manner that is designed to have some desired effect on the expected quantity of money in some future period that is if some weight is given to a nominal target thus it is in fact possible to conduct an analytical comparison of the type desired even in a model entirely free of money illusion and expectational irrationality in the context of the instrument choice issue it is crucial to distinguish between

consumer price and promotion expectations an experimental study the authors report results from a controlled experiment designed to investigate the impact of a brand s price promotion frequency and the depth of promotional price discounts on the price consumers

the long term effects of price promotions on category incidence brand choice and purchase quantity abstract to what extent do price promotions have a long term effect on the components of brand sales namely category incidence brand choice and purchase quantity the authors answer this question by using persistence modeling on weekly sales data of a perishable and a storable product derived from a scanner panel their analysis reveals first that permanent promotion effects are virtually absent for each sales component next the authors develop and apply an impulse response approach to estimate the promotional adjustment period and the total dynamic effects of a price promotion specifically they calculate the long term equivalent of gupta s 1988 14 84 2 breakdown of promotional effects because of positive adjustment effects for incidence but negative adjustment effects for choice the authors find a reversal of the importance of category incidence and brand choice 66 11 23 for the storable product and 58 39 3 for the perishable product the authors discuss the implications of the findings an

how far for a buck tax differences and the location of retail gasoline activity in southeast chicagoland abstract we exploit variation in gasoline and cigarettes taxes in adjacent political jurisdictions for northern illinois and indiana to examine consumers trade off between prices and travel we develop a model that relates activity in the retail gasoline industry around the tax borders to consumer locations our results indicate that the willingness of a typical chicagoland consumer to travel an additional mile to buy gasoline corresponds to about 0 065 to 0 084 per gallon according to our estimates the observed area of chicago the jurisdiction with the highest taxes is missing approximately 40 of the capacity that would exist were taxes equalized

promotion and fast food demand many believe that fast food promotion is a significant cause of the obesity epidemic in north america industry members argue that promotion only reallocates brand shares and does not increase overall demand we study the effect of fast food promotion on market share and total demand by estimating a discrete continuous model of fast food restaurant choice and food expenditure that explicitly accounts for both spatial and temporal determinants of demand estimates are obtained using a unique panel of canadian fast food consumers the results show that promotion primarily increases demand and has a smaller effect on restaurant market shares

choosing between order of entry assumptions in empirical entry models evidence from competition between burger king and mcdonald s restaurant outlets we demonstrate how a non nested statistical test developed by vuong 1989 can be used to assess the suitability of alternate order of entry assumptions used for identification purposes in empirical entry models as an example we estimate an entry model of mcdonald s and burger king restaurant outlets in united states the data set focuses on relatively small isolated markets for these markets the non nested tests suggest that order of entry assumptions that give burger king outlets a first mover advantage are statistically preferred last a monte carlo experiment provides encouraging results suggesting that the vuong type test yields reliable results within the entry model framework

durability and strategic trade are there rents to be captured abstract this paper analyzes strategic trade policy when home and foreign duopolists produce a durable good that is either sold or leased in a third country durability is important for two reasons it characterizes most of the products discussed in the strategic trade literature and it also calls for explicit dynamic modeling for duopolists who sell their product in a third country market this paper finds the optimal policy to be a tax on domestic output for duopolists who lease the good in a third country market though the optimal policy is a subsidy

uniform pricing in us retail chains we show that most u s food drugstore and mass merchandise chains charge nearly uniform prices across stores despite wide variation in consumer demographics and competition demand estimates reveal substantial within chain variation in price elasticities and suggest that the median chain sacrifices 16 million of annual profit relative to a benchmark of optimal prices in contrast differences in average prices between chains are broadly consistent with the optimal benchmark we discuss a range of explanations for nearly uniform pricing highlighting managerial inertia and brand image concerns as mechanisms frequently mentioned by industry participants relative to our optimal benchmark uniform pricing may significantly increase the prices paid by poorer households relative to the rich dampen the response of prices to local economic shocks alter the analysis of mergers in antitrust and shift the incidence of intranational trade costs

the influence of prior beliefs frequency cues and magnitude cues on consumers perceptions of comparative price data a widespread practice in grocery store advertising is to compare the advertised store s prices to a competitor s prices on multiple items an important but largely unexplored issue is how this information is processed and used in conjunction with prior beliefs to influence price perceptions in our initial studies we manipulated prior beliefs and two data based cues frequency of price advantage and magnitude of price advantage to determine their relative influence on consumer price perceptions results indicate that prior beliefs affected price perceptions but that the frequency cue exerted a dominating influence several follow up studies demonstrate the robustness of this phenomenon across a variety of presentational and instructional conditions

the role of spatial demand on outlet location and pricing abstract in this article the authors consider the problem of outlet pricing and location in the context of unobserved spatial demand the analysis constitutes a scenario in which capacity constrained firms set prices conditional on their location demand and costs this enables firms to develop maps of latent demand patterns across the market in which they compete the analysis further suggests locations for additional outlets and the resultant equilibrium effect on profits and prices using bayesian spatial statistics the authors apply their model to seven years of data on apartment location and prices in roanoke va they find that spatial covariation in demand is material in outlet choice the 95 spatial decay in demand extends 3 6 miles in a region that measures slightly more than 9 5 miles they also find that capacity constraints can cost complexes upward of 100 per apartment as they predict price elasticities and costs are biased downward when spatial covariance in demand is ignored costs a

targeting nominal income a closer look abstract i derive conditions under which the monetary authority should target nominal spending the relevant spending target is a weighted average of income and consumption despite sticky nominal wages under optimal policy the economy behaves as if all markets clear

an econometric model of location and pricing in the gasoline market abstract the authors propose an econometric model of both the geographic locations of gasoline retailers in singapore and price competition among retailers conditional on their geographic locations although market demand for gasoline is not observed the authors are able to infer the effects of such demand from stations locations and pricing decisions using available data on local market level demographics using the proposed location model which is based on the assumption of social welfare maximization by a policy planner the authors find that local potential gasoline demand depends positively on the local demographic characteristics of the neighborhood using the proposed pricing model which is based on the assumption of bertrand competition between retail chains the authors find that retail margins for gasoline are approximately 21 the authors also find that consumers are willing to travel up to a mile for a savings of 03 per liter using the estimates of the proposed econometric model the a

centrality and pricing in spatially differentiated markets the case of gasoline we highlight the importance of centrality for pricing firms characterized by a more central position in a spatial network are more powerful in terms of having a stronger impact on their competitors prices and on equilibrium prices these propositions are derived from a simple theoretical model and investigated empirically for the retail gasoline market of vienna austria we compute a measure of network centrality based on the locations of gasoline stations in the road network results from a spatial autoregressive model show that prices of gasoline stations are more strongly correlated with prices of central competitors

supermarket competition the case of every day low pricing every day low pricing edlp strategy has proved to be a successful innovation resulting in higher profits to supermarkets adopting it in competition with promotional pricing promo conventional wisdom attributes this success either to lower costs or to edlp better serving time constrained consumers while discouraging cherry pickers who seek promotions however it is unclear that such cost savings are being fully realized since edlp stores also engage in price promotions also continued existence of promo stores means that costs are not the only factor and they compete effectively without relying just on the cherry pickers furthermore experimental evidence suggests that a supermarket cannot obtain higher profits by merely setting constant low prices leading to the question exactly what makes edlp successful this question is of particular relevance to both academics and practitioners who have been intrigued by the success of this retailing strategy more generally the retailing issues addressed in this paper the economic analysis of competition and the empirical findings should be of interest to the broader community of researchers and managers we investigate the factors contributing to edlp s success by analyzing the competition between supermarkets through a game theoretic analysis of a market consisting of both time constrained consumers and cherry pickers key features of our model are consumers shop and purchase a basket of goods based on price announcements by stores and rational expectations of unannounced prices stores carry more than one good and compete through prices service convenience and appropriate communication strategies and no exogenous cost asymmetries we derive the conditions under which retailers choosing different strategies edlp and promo is a perfect nash equilibrium our analysis shows that the edlp store s offering of constant every day low prices is an equilibrium outcome endogenously determined successful implementation of the edlp strategy involves communication of relative basket prices implying that merely setting constant low prices is not viable we further demonstrate that while time constrained consumers find every day low prices at edlp attractive and cherry pickers the promotions at promo clientele effects are in fact more complicated specifically in equilibrium the promo store offers a higher service level as desired by time constrained consumers and the edlp store a lower service level in keeping with the needs of cherry pickers this choice of service by the two stores results in a cleaner segmentation of the market the higher relative basket price and service at the promo store results in a larger base of time constrained consumers to shop at the promo store and a larger base of cherry pickers to shop at the edlp store even though some cherry pickers continue to visit the promo store to avail of the price specials in this way our results contradict the conventional wisdom on edlp strategy as being mainly geared towards time constrained consumers finally industry profits are higher in an edlp promo equilibrium than when stores adopt identical strategies our analysis and results also offer a more complete characterization of the edlp and promo strategies indeed we show that edlp and promo strategies are positioning strategies rather than merely pricing strategies with different elements price promotions service and communications while the edlp store uses basket prices to attract both segments the promo store uses service and price specials to compete in the time constrained and cherry picking segment respectively given these different approaches of the two stores the communication strategies of the edlp and the promo stores emphasize these differences as well in this way we show as suggested by corstjens and corstjens 1994 that positioning in a retail context involves developing multidimensional strategies appealing to all segments while each element of the strategy may focus on a different consumer segment this is in contrast to the traditional view of segmentation in which different products in a product line for example are designed to appeal to different segments we complete the analysis by examining the data from the trade press and a survey conducted in a major metropolitan area these data while limited in scope support our theoretical results

an analysis of the principal agent problem most analyses of the principal agent problem assume that the principal chooses an incentive scheme to maximize expected utility subject to the agent s utility being at a stationary point an important paper of mirrlees has shown that this approach is generally invalid we present an alternative procedure if the agent s preferences over income lotteries are independent of action we show that the optimal way of implementing an action by the agent can be found by solving a convex programming problem we use this to characterize the optimal incentive scheme and to analyze the determinants of the seriousness of an incentive problem

automobile prices in market equilibrium with unobserved price discrimination in markets where sellers are able to price discriminate or the buyers to bargain individuals receive discounts over the posted prices that are usually not observed by the econometrician this paper considers the structural estimation of a demand and supply model a la berry et al 1995 when only posted prices are observed we consider that heterogeneous discounts occur due to price discrimination by firms on observable characteristics of consumers within this framework identification is achieved by assuming that the marginal costs of producing and selling the goods do not depend on the characteristics of the buyers we also require a condition relating the posted prices to the prices actually paid for instance we can assume that at least one group of individuals pays the posted prices under these two conditions the demand and supply parameters as well as the exact discounts corresponding to each type of consumers can be identified we apply our methodology to estimate the demand and supply in the new automobile market in france results suggest that discounting arising from price discrimination is important the average discount is estimated to be 10 5 with large variation depending on the buyers characteristics and cars specifications our results are in line with discounts generally observed in european and american automobile markets

managerial incentives and capital management the paper shows how career concerns rather than effort aversion can induce a natural incongruity in risk preferences between managers and superiors a model based on learning about managerial talent is developed to study second best contractual remedies we show that the optimal wage contract is an option of the value of the manager s human capital for insurance reasons and that consequently rationing of capital is often required to counterbalance the manager s resulting incentive to overinvest rationing is strictly superior to price decentralization offering one reason for the prevalence of centralized capital budgeting procedures

price dispersion and accessibility a case study of fast food this study examines spatial variation in the price and accessibility of fast food across a major urban area we use novel data on the price of a representative fast food meal and the location of fast food restaurants belonging to one of three major chains in the district of columbia and its surrounding suburbs these data are used to test a structural model of spatial competition the results of this study are easily interpreted and compared with a past analysis we find that spatial differences in costs and demand conditions drive variation in the number of firms operating in a market which in turn affects prices

monetarist rules in the light of recent experience recent experience does not include a monetarist experiment as some have argued but may slightly reinforce preexisting reasons for doubting that the best way of formulating monetarist policy prescriptions is in the form of a constant growth rule for the money stock a more desirable rule would pertain to the monetary base which is much more directly under fed control while a constant base growth rule might provide good macroeconomic performance better results should be obtainable from a rule that at regular intervals adjusts the base growth rate upward or downward depending on whether nominal gnp is below or above a target path that specifies constant non inflationary growth for that variable this type of rule is activist to an extent but is non discretionary the implied absence of policy making flexibility is desirable for reasons explained in the literature on dynamic inconsistency this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item