computational suite of models with heterogeneous agents incomplete markets and aggregate uncertainty this paper describes the first model considered in the computational suite project that compares different numerical algorithms it is an incomplete markets economy with a continuum of agents and an inequality borrowing constraint

centralized versus decentralized provision of local public goods a political economy approach abstract this paper takes a fresh look at the trade off between centralized and decentralized provision of local public goods it argues that the sharing of the costs of local public spending in a centralized system will create a conflict of interest between citizens in different jurisdictions when spending decisions are made by a legislature of locally elected representatives this conflict of interest will play out in the legislature depending on precisely how the legislature behaves the result may be excessive public spending or allocations of public goods characterized by uncertainty and misallocation across districts the extent of the conflict of interest between districts is affected by spillovers and differences in tastes for public spending thus the relative performance of centralized and decentralized systems depends upon spillovers and differences in tastes for public spending but for different reasons than suggested in the existing literature

in or out centralization by majority vote we present a positive theory of centralization of political decisions voters choose centralization or decentralization depending on their forecast of the political organization that will favor the policies they prefer we study the induced preferences for centralization as well results of different forms of referenda

learning from personal experience one rational guy and the justification of myopia abstract the paper examines a large population analog of fictitious play in which players learn from personal experience focusing on what happens when a single rational player is added to the population because the learning process naturally generates contagion dynamics the rational player at times has an incentive to act nonmyopically in 2 2 games the dynamics are asymmetric and favor risk dominant equilibria a variety of other examples are presented journal of economic literature classification number c7

decentralization and political career concerns abstract politicians career paths often start at some subnational governments and end at the national one allocation of authorities among national and subnational governments affects i how tempting the prospects of taking national offices are and hence how strong bureaucrats political career concerns are and ii whether the incentives generated by these political career concerns can be put into productive use at subnational governments we illustrate this tradeoff in determining the optimal degree of decentralization using china as a case study we also compare the equilibrium degree of decentralization in autocracy and in democracy

think locally act locally spillovers spillbacks and efficient decentralized policymaking we analyze models with interjurisdictional spillovers among heterogeneous jurisdictions such as co 2 emissions that affect the global environment each jurisdiction s emissions depend upon the local stock of capital which is interjurisdictionally mobile and subject to local taxation in important cases decentralized policymaking leads to efficient resource allocation even in the complete absence of corrective interventions by higher level governments or coordination of policy through coasian bargaining in particular even when the preferences and production technologies differ among the agents the decentralized system can result in globally efficient allocation

a political economy theory of partial decentralization we revisit the classic problem of tax competition in the context of federal nations and derive a positive theory of partial decentralization a capital poor median voter chooses to use redistributive capital taxes to provide public goods the expectation of high capital taxes however results in a small capital stock which lowers returns to redistribution the median voter therefore wants to commit to a lower level of capital taxes she does so by setting a partial degree of decentralization in the constitution the equilibrium degree of decentralization balances the positive effect of tax competition on capital taxes with the loss in redistribution that results we show that the degree of decentralization is nonmonotonic in inequality increasing in the redistributive efficiency of public good provision and decreasing in capital productivity when public goods are heterogeneous in their capacity to transfer funds all voters agree that goods with high redistributive capacity should be decentralized

renegotiation design with unverifiable information this paper considers a buyer seller relationship with observable but unverifiable investments and or random utility parameters in such situations it is known that contract renegotiation may prevent the implementation of first best outcomes in this paper we show however that efficient investments and optimal risk sharing can typically be achieved provided the initial contract is able to monitor the ex post renegotiation process specifically we focus on the following two features of renegotiation design first default options in case renegotiation breaks down second the allocation of all bargaining power to either contracting party moreover we show that these two features can be obtained in standard rubinstein bargaining games through contractual provisions such as specific performance clauses and penalties for delay or equivalently financial hostages refundable without interest

rapid evolution under inertia abstract this paper demonstrates that inertia driven by switching costs leads to more rapid evolution in a class of games that includes m m pure coordination games under the best response dynamic and a fixed rate of mutation the expected waiting time to reach long run equilibrium is of lower order in the presence of switching costs due to the creation of new absorbing states that allow ellison s ellison g 2000 basins of attraction long run stochastic stability and the speed of step by step evolution rev econ stud 67 17 45 step by step evolution to occur

communication in federal politics universalism policy uniformity and the optimal allocation of fiscal authority the paper presents a positive model of policy formation in federal legislatures when delegates engage in the strategic exchange of policy relevant information depending on the type of policy under consideration communication between delegates generally suffers from a bias that makes truthful communication difficult and sometimes impossible this generates inefficient federal policy choices that are often endogenously characterized by overspending universalism and uniformity building on these findings i develop a theory of fiscal de centralization which revisits the work of oates in a world of incomplete information and strategic communication empirical results from a cross section of us municipalities are consistent with the predicted pattern of spending

occbin a toolkit for solving dynamic models with occasionally binding constraints easily abstract the toolkit adapts a first order perturbation approach and applies it in a piecewise fashion to solve dynamic models with occasionally binding constraints our examples include a real business cycle model with a constraint on the level of investment and a new keynesian model subject to the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates compared with a high quality numerical solution the piecewise linear perturbation method can adequately capture key properties of the models we consider a key advantage of the piecewise linear perturbation method is its applicability to models with a large number of state variables

cooperative investments and the value of contracting recent articles have shown that contracts can support the efficient outcome for bilateral trade even in the face of specific investments and incomplete contracting these studies typically considered selfish investments that benefit the investor e g the seller s investment reduces her production costs the authors find very different results for cooperative investments that directly benefit the investor s partner e g the seller s investment improves the buyer s value of the good most importantly if committing not to renegotiate the contract is impossible then contracting has no value i e the parties cannot do better than to abandon contracting altogether in favor of ex post negotiation

a prospect theory nash bargaining solution and its stochastic stability abstract we consider the long run outcomes of bargaining games when players obey prospect theory we extend the evolutionary bargaining model of young 1993 to a two stage nash demand game two players simultaneously choose whether to exercise an outside option in the first stage and play the nash demand game in the second stage which will be reached only if neither player exercises the outside option we address the influence on the stochastically stable division of reference dependent preferences where the reference point is the value of the outside option we show that the division consistently differs from the nash bargaining solution under expected utility theory inspired by this we propose a prospect theory nash bargaining solution which coincides with the stochastically stable division

computational suite of models with heterogeneous agents ii multi country real business cycle models this paper describes the second model considered in the computational suite project that compares the performance of different numerical algorithms it is a multi country model in which countries face different productivity shocks solving such models is a challenging numerical problem unless the number of countries is small the solutions are functions of a large set of arguments and the functional forms are unknown moreover the solution procedures have to deal with high dimensional integration problems

central governance or subsidiarity a property rights approach to federalism abstract we consider a model where one region in a federation can realize a public project after undertaking value increasing investments while negotiations on the federal level ensure that an efficient project size is implemented in equilibrium non contractibility of investments causes the overall outcome to differ across regimes if the region bears the entire implementation costs of its policies underinvestment prevails and subsidiarity centralized governance is superior when spillovers are weak strong conversely if linear cost sharing arrangements are feasible decentralized authority often admits a socially optimal outcome while centralized authority with majority or unanimity rule does not

multi country real business cycle models accuracy tests and test bench this paper describes the methodology used to compare the results of different solution algorithms for a multi country real business cycle model it covers in detail the structure of the model the choice of values for the parameters the accuracy tests used in the comparison and the computer program specifically developed for performing the tests

government versus private ownership of public goods there has been a dramatic change in the division of responsibility between the state and the private sector for the delivery of public goods and services in recent years with an increasing trend toward contracting out to the private sector and public private partnerships this paper analyzes how ownership matters in public good provision we show that if contracts are incomplete then the ownership of a public good should lie with a party that values the beneets generated by it relatively more this is true regardless of whether this party is also the key investor or other aspects of the technology

the impressive contribution of canadian economists to fiscal federalism theory and policy the study of fiscal federalism has been central to the research of canadian economists since the rowell sirois report to mark the 50th anniversary of the founding of the canadian economics association it is fitting to take stock of their contributions we focus on the period since 1982 and emphasize the main scholarly publications of an inclusive array of canadian economists and economists in canadian universities our attention is devoted to applications in the context of federal and provincial governments setting aside related issues in municipal government finance we briefly discuss instances where the fiscal federalism literature has informed policy debates including through policy research institutes government commissions and international organizations la contribution impressionnante des economistes canadiens a la theorie et a la politique du federalisme fiscal l etude du federalisme fiscal a ete un element central de la recherche des economistes canadiens depuis la commission rowell sirois au moment de celebrer le 50eme anniversaire de la fondation de l association canadienne d economique le moment est approprie pour prendre la mesure de leurs contributions on se concentre sur la periode apres 1982 et on souligne les principales publications savantes d un ensemble inclusif d economistes canadiens et d economistes dans les universites canadiennes une attention particuliere est portee aux applications dans le contexte federal et provincial mettant de cote les enjeux relies a la finance municipale on discute brievement des instances ou la litterature sur le federalisme fiscal a eclaire les debats de politiques publiques y compris a travers les instituts de recherche sur les politiques publiques les commissions gouvernementales et les organisations internationales

envelope condition method with an application to default risk models we develop an envelope condition method ecm for dynamic programming problems a tractable alternative to expensive conventional value function iteration vfi ecm has two novel features first to reduce the cost of iteration on bellman equation ecm constructs policy functions using envelope conditions which are simpler to analyze numerically than rst order conditions second to increase the accuracy of solutions ecm solves for derivatives of value function jointly with value function itself we complement ecm with other computational techniques that are suitable for highdimensional problems such as simulation based grids monomial integration rules and derivative free solvers the resulting value iterative ecm method can accurately solve models with at least up to 20 state variables and can successfully compete in accuracy and speed with state of the art euler equation methods we nally use ecm to solve a challenging default risk model with a kink in value and policy functions c6 c61 c63 c68 dynamic programming value function iteration bellman equation endogenous grid envelope condition curse of dimensionality large scale sovereign debt default risk

discrete choice with social interactions this paper provides an analysis of aggregate behavioural outcomes when individual utility exhibits social interaction effects we study generalized logistic models of individual choice which incorporate terms reflecting the desire of individuals to conform to the behaviour of others in an environment of noncooperative decisionmaking laws of large numbers are generated in such environments multiplicity of equilibria in these models which are equivalent to the existence of multiple self consistent means for average choice behaviour will exist when the social interactions exceed a particular threshold local stability of these multiple equilibria is also studied the properties of the noncooperative economy are contrasted with the properties of an economy in which a social planner determines the set of individual choices finally a likelihood function based on the theoretical model is given and conditions for the econometric identifiability of the model are established

reforming an asymmetric union on the virtues of dual tier capital taxation the tax competition for mobile capital in particular the reluctance of small countries to agree on measures of tax coordination has ongoing political and economic fallouts within europe we analyse the effects of introducing a two tier structure of capital taxation where the asymmetric member states of a union choose a common federal tax rate in the first stage and then non cooperatively set local tax rates in the second stage we show that this mechanism effectively reduces competition for mobile capital between the members of the union moreover it distributes the gains across the heterogeneous states in a way that yields a strict pareto improvement over a one tier system of purely local tax choices we also discuss the effects of diverging capital endowments within the union and capital flows to third countries

experimentation in federal systems will decentralization lead to a laboratory in policy experimentation or is centralization necessary to prevent free riding in the innovation process we present a model where experiments have two dimensions all prefer quality but preferences

federal mandates by popular demand this paper proposes a new framework for studying federal mandates regarding public policies in areas such as environmental quality public health highway safety and the provision of local public goods voters have single peaked preferences along a single policy dimension there are two levels of government federal and local the federal level can constrain local policy by mandating a minimum or maximum policy localities are free to adopt any policy satisfying the constraint imposed by the federal mandate we show that voters choose federal mandates that are too strict which leads to excessively severe mandates we show that similar results can obtain when federal provision of the public provided good is more efficient than local provision

switching costs in frequently repeated games abstract we add small costs of changing actions and frequent repetition to finitely repeated games making some surprising commitments credible naturally switching costs make it credible not to change action however this can occur for small switching costs and gives a unique subgame perfect equilibrium in coordination games when pareto dominance and risk dominance coincide in the prisoners dilemma switching costs reduce the incentive to deviate from mutual cooperation but reduce the incentive to switch from cooperation to punish defection hence whether switching costs enable cooperation depends on which effect dominates switching costs can make complex threats credible enabling a player to earn more than his stackelberg payoff journal of economic literature classification numbers c7 c73

externalities vs internalities a model of political integration abstract decentralized government leads to inter regional externalities whereas an integrated jurisdiction solves the externality problem centralized government entails other costs in particular a neglect for minority interests the paper models formally the trade off between these two forces in determining the optimum as well as the equilibrium design of jurisdictions both the relative size of regions and the distribution of tastes are shown to be important parameters of the problem

can decentralization be beneficial abstract a conventional justification for government hierarchy in the fiscal federalism literature is based upon asymmetry in policy tools or in information access that is available to different levels of government this paper demonstrates that even if these asymmetries are eliminated addition of local regional governments to a one tier central government can be strictly welfare improving

redistribution fiscal competition and the politics of economic integration the paper examines the consequences of the economic integration of factor markets in a model with two countries that redistribute income among their residents the social benefits in each country are financed by a source based tax on capital which is democratically chosen by its inhabitants if either capital or labour is internationally mobile the countries engage in fiscal competition and the partial integration of capital or labour markets is detrimental to the countries redistributive ability a move from partial to full integration however may alleviate rather than intensify fiscal competition particularly if the two countries face sufficiently similar economic and political conditions in such a situation for example tax competition for mobile capital is softened as the labour market becomes more integrated and even vanishes if both factors are fully mobile as a result there is more redistribution in equilibrium and a majority of the population in each country is strictly better off copyright 2002 wiley blackwell

accountability and decentralisation in government an incomplete contracts model this paper approaches the question of the appropriate level of decentralisation of power in government as a problem in the allocation of control rights under incomplete contracts the model of the paper compares allocations of power to local central and regional government as alternative means of motivating governments to act in the interests of citizens centralisation allows benefits from policy coordination but has costs in terms of diminished accountability which can be precisely defined as the reduced probability that the welfare of a given region can determine the re election of the government the model is extended to allow for conflicts of interest within regions and externalities between central and local governments in a federation it is also applied to determining levels of fiscal transfer between localities and to circumstances where governments may act as leviathans appropriating resources for their own use

risk attitudes and risk dominance in the long run abstract this paper investigates the role that risk attitudes play in the evolution of conventions in the long run risk aversion is shown to be associated with the evolution of maximin conventions and risk seeking with the evolution of payoff dominant conventions

evolution in games with endogenous mistake probabilities abstract j bergin and b lipman econometrica 64 1996 943 956 show that the selection effect from the random mutations in the adaptive population dynamics in m kandori g mailath and r rob econometrica 61 1993 29 56 and p young econometrica 61 1993 57 84 is due to restrictions on how these mutation rates vary across population states we here model mutation rates as endogenously determined mistake probabilities by assuming that players with some effort can control the probability of implementing the intended strategy this is shown to corroborate the results in kandori mailath rob 1993 and under certain regularity conditions those in young 1993 journal of economic literature classification number c72

efficiency equilibrium and exclusion when the poor chase the rich using a simple adverse selection model we characterize equilibrium when the rich chase the poor if communities are established by competitive entrepreneurs the equilibrium exists is unique and is efficient it involves either complete separation or complete pooling different income groups may rank these qualitative outcomes differently we show how restrictions imposed by a central government may alter the nature of equilibrium such restrictions may be explained as the choice of a low income majority altering the equilibrium to the pooling outcome which they prefer

centralized fiscal spending by supranational unions we study fiscal spending by supranational unions where participation is voluntary and countries bargain over contributions to and the allocation of a central budget since decisions are made by unanimity bargaining power over the allocation becomes a function of contributions which generically causes inefficiency in the presence of income asymmetry between member nations this link between the budget allocation and contributions explains patterns of inefficient spending in the eu e g why resources are diverted to low productivity projects in high income countries the option of veto creates a trade off between efficiency on the contributions margin and efficiency on the allocation margin

harmonization and side payments in political cooperation for two districts or countries that try to internalize externalities i analyze a bargaining game under private information i derive conditions for when it is efficient with uniform policies across regions with and without side payments and when it is efficient to prohibit side payments in the negotiations while policy differentiation and side payments allow the policy to better reflect local conditions they create conflicts between the regions and thus delay the results also describe when political centralization outperforms decentralized cooperation and they provide a theoretical foundation for the controversial uniformity assumption traditionally used by the fiscal federalism literature

on the number and size of nations this paper studies the equilibrium determination of the number of countries in different political regimes and in different economic environments with more or less economic integration we focus on the trade off between the benefits of large jurisdictions and the costs of heterogeneity of large and diverse populations our model implies that i democratization leads to secessions ii in equilibrium one generally observes an inefficiently large number of countries iii the equilibrium number of countries is increasing in the amount of economic integration

distributive politics and the costs of centralization this paper studies the choice between centralization and decentralization of fiscal policy in a political economy setting with centralization regional delegates vote over agendas comprising sets of region specific projects the outcome is inefficient because the choice of projects is insufficiently sensitive to within region benefits the number of projects funded may be non monotonic in the strength of project externalities the efficiency gains from decentralization and the performance of constitutional rules such as majority voting which may be used to choose between decentralization and centralization are then discussed in this framework weaker externalities and more heterogeneity between regions need not increase the efficiency gain from decentralization

adaptive play by idiosyncratic agents abstract equilibrium selection in coordination games has generated a large literature kandori mailath and rob econometrica 61 1993 29 and young econometrica 61 1993 57 studied dynamic models of aggregate behaviour where agents best respond to observations of population play crucially infrequent mistakes mutations allow agents to take actions contrary to current trends and prevent initial configurations from determining long run play an alternative approach is offered here trembles are added to payoffs so that with some probability it is optimal to act against the flow of play the long run distribution of population behaviour is characterised modes correspond to stable bayesian nash equilibria allowing the variance of payoff trembles to vanish a purification process a single equilibrium is played almost always in the long run kandori mailath and rob and young show that the number of contrary actions required to escape an equilibrium determines selection here the likelihood that such actions are taken is equally important

efficient equilibrium selection in evolutionary games with random matching abstract this paper investigates the sensitivity of recent evolutionary models of learning to the specification of the matching mechanism we study a literally random matching mechanism combined with a process of strategy adjustment based on the realized average performance of each strategy in the key class of symmetric 2 2 coordination games the pareto efficient equilibrium per se is selected rather than the risk dominant equilibrium as the probability of experimentation or mutation goes to zero furthermore convergence to the equilibrium is relatively fast we extend these results for example to games of common interest journal of economic literature classification numbers c72 c73

the architecture of federations constitutions bargaining and moral hazard abstract the paper studies a federal system where a a region provides non contractible inputs into the social benefits from a public policy project with spillovers to other regions and b where political bargaining between different levels of government may ensure efficient decision making ex post allowing intergovernmental grants to be designed optimally we ask whether project authority should rest with the region or with the central government centralization is shown to dominate when governments are benevolent with regionally biased governments both centralization and decentralization yield inefficiencies and the second best institution depends on parameter values if political bargaining is prohibited when bargaining is feasible however the first best can often be achieved under decentralization but not under centralization at the root of this dichotomy is the alignment of decision making over essential inputs and project size under decentralized governance and their misalignment under centralization