exchange rates inflation and money supply in turkey abstract a radical reform package has been implemented in turkey in the post 1980 era involving simultaneously short run adjustment and transition to an outward oriented regime a major area where the programme has failed to register a significant success has been in the sphere of inflation high and volatile rates of inflation continue to be a characteristic feature of the turkish economy this paper seeks to explain the persistence of this phenomenon with reference to the interactions between exchange rate price level and money supply the study employs monthly data and the period under consideration is january 1981 to december 1987 distinguished by managed exchange rate flexibility results of a four variable vector autoregressive model are presented and analyzed these in turn provide the basis for a small scale model in which high powered money price level exports and the exchange rate are simultaneously explained judged in terms of its overall fit the model appears to be quite successful in accounting for the persistence phenomenon in the post 1980 period

income and substitution effects of estate taxation despite the long us history of taxing estates the economic consequences of estate taxation in practice remain unclear the us estate tax first appeared in 1797 only to be repealed in 1802 estate taxes were subsequently imposed on a temporary basis from 1862 1872 and 1898 1902 to finance wartime expenditures the modern estate tax was introduced in 1916 and with varying exemption levels and tax rates including a hiatus during 2010 has remained in force ever since taxes generally have been imposed only on large estates the current 5 25 million exempt amount implying that smaller estates escape federal taxes altogether the estate tax serves two functions it collects revenue from large estates and it discour ages the transmission of wealth at death it is an understatement to say that the us estate tax is controversial for more of an explicit statement and historical elaboration see graetz and shapiro 2005 as there is controversy over both the desirability of imposing estate tax burdens and the economic consequences of incentives created by estate taxation one of the sources of differences in views over the likely effects of estate taxation is differing degrees of rationality and foresight that are attributed to economic actors the purpose of this paper is to analyze incentives created by estate taxes in a setting in which agents act rationally and are endowed with accurate foresight since estate taxes reduce resources available to individuals and also affect relative prices the taxes have income and substitution effects on labor supply consumption saving and other economic decisions the paper considers the net impact of these effects

on the sign of the optimum marginal income tax this paper studies a central aspect of optimal income taxation as modelled in mirrlees original paper on the topic identical leisure consumption preferences qualitatively homogeneous skills in production namely whether given concave utilitarianism alone the optimal marginal income tax will be non negative a well known positive answer to this question in weak inequality form was given in the said paper which however we show requires additive separability of individual utility in the ordinal and cardinal senses our main result here is to derive the required strict positivity of the marginal tax under weak conditions slightly wider than noninferiority of consumption and leisure with preferences otherwise arbitrary

wealth taxation and wealth accumulation theory and evidence from denmark using administrative wealth records from denmark we study the effects of wealth taxes on wealth accumulation denmark used to impose one of the world s highest marginal tax rates on wealth but this tax was greatly reduced starting in 1989 and later abolished due to the specific design of the wealth tax the 1989 reform provides a compelling quasi experiment for understanding behavioral responses among the wealthiest segments of the population we find clear reduced form effects of wealth taxes in the short and medium run with larger effects on the very wealthy than on the moderately wealthy we develop a simple life cycle model with utility of residual wealth bequests allowing us to interpret the evidence in terms of structural primitives we calibrate the model to the quasi experimental moments and simulate the model forward to estimate the long run effect of wealth taxes on wealth accumulation our simulations show that the long run elasticity of taxable wealth with respect to the net of tax return is sizable at the top of the distribution

intergenerational altruism and house prices evidence from bequest tax reforms in italy abstract the degree of intergenerational altruism is estimated in a benchmark barro type olg framework with imperfect altruism exploiting the exogenous variation generated by reforms of the tax treatment of bequests and inter vivos real estate donations enacted in italy between 2000 and 2001 using longitudinal information on the housing stock and house prices in 13 large italian cities between 1993 and 2004 the structural parameter of interest is estimated via the effect of the reform on house prices we estimate a degree of intergenerational altruism ranging between 0 2 and 0 3 a magnitude consistent with existing parameterizations for the us economy

using elasticities to derive optimal income tax rates this paper derives optimal income tax formulas using compensated and uncompensated elasticities of earnings with respect to tax rates a simple formula for the high income optimal tax rate is obtained as a function of these elasticities and the thickness of the top tail of the income distribution in the general non linear income tax problem this method using elasticities shows precisely how the different economic effects come into play and which are the key relevant parameters in the optimal income tax formulas of mirrlees the optimal non linear tax rate formulas are expressed in terms of elasticities and the shape of the income distribution these formulas are implemented numerically using empirical earning distributions and a range of realistic elasticity parameters

computing multi period information constrained optima this paper presents a detailed theoretical derivation and justification for methods used to compute solutions to a multi period including infinite period continuum agent unobservedeffort economy actual solutions are displayed illustrating cross sectional variability in consumption and labour effort in the population at a point in time and variability for a typical individual over time the optimal tradeoff between insurance and incentives is explored and the issue of excess variability is addressed by consideration of the analogue full information economy and various restricted contracting regimes

interpreting the macroeconomic time series facts the effects of monetary policy existing theory and evidence on the effects of monetary policy are reviewed substantial room for disagreement among economists remains new evidence based on multivariate time series studies of several countries is presented while certain patterns in the data consistent with effective monetary policy are strikingly similar across countries others particularly the tendency of interest rate increases to predict high inflation are harder to reconcile with effective monetary policy

optimal contracting with dynastic altruism family size and per capita consumption we use a barro becker model of endogenous fertility in which parents are subject to idiosyncratic shocks that are private information either to labor productivity or taste for leisure to study the efficient degree of consumption inequality in the long run the planner uses the trade off between family size and future consumption and leisure to provide incentives for workers to reveal their shocks we show that in this environment the optimal dynamic contract no longer features immiseration in consumption we also discuss the implications of the model on the long run properties of family size in the optimal contract and show that the long run trend in dynasty size can be either positive or negative depending on parameters

estate taxation with altruism heterogeneity we develop a theory of optimal estate taxation in a model where bequest inequality is driven by differences in parental altruism we show that a wide range of results are possible from positive taxes to subsidies depending on redistributive objectives implicit in the cardinal specification of utility and social welfare functions we propose a normalization that is helpful in classifying these different possibilities we isolate cases where the optimal policy bans negative bequests and taxes positive bequests features present in most advanced countries

behavioral responses to inheritance tax evidence from notches in france abstract for the first time we exploit quasi experimental variation to investigate the impact of inheritance taxation on wealth accumulation using bunching and difference in differences methods we directly estimate several behavioral responses during lifetime rather than relying solely on observations at death our empirical findings shed new light upon wealth accumulation and bequest motives taken together the small responses to inheritance tax estimated cannot be supported by the desire to retain control over wealth

climate change and intergenerational equity revisiting the uniform taxation principle on carbon energy inputs abstract this paper presents a neoclassical growth model with three energy sectors and a climate externality energy is used in the production of the final consumption good the energy sectors differ on the exhaustibility of the energy resource oil is an exhaustible resource coal is an abundant resource and a green energy sector uses labor oil and coal use increases the stock of carbon in the atmosphere which generates a climate externality standard pigouvian taxation prescribes that a uniform tax on all carbon energy inputs is optimal this uniform tax must be equal to the social cost of carbon because this is the externality that the usage of these inputs generates i consider a policymaker who cares about future generations and may discount the future less than the individuals in the economy this paper s main theoretical result is that the uniform taxation rule does not carry over to an economy with a low social discount rate in particular the optimal carbon tax on oil does not equal the optimal carbon tax on coal moreover while the optimal tax on coal equals the social cost of carbon the optimal carbon tax on oil follows a more general formula

how should capital be taxed this survey discusses how capital should be taxed in advanced economies we review the theoretical optimal tax literature survey empirical studies on the distribution of capital and the distortion

pareto efficient taxation and expenditures pre and re distribution abstract this paper shows that there is a presumption that pareto efficient taxation entails a positive tax on capital when tax and expenditure policies can affect the market distribution of income in ways that cannot be directly offset those effects need to be taken into account reducing the burden imposed on distortionary redistribution the paper extends the 1976 atkinson stiglitz results to a dynamic overlapping generations model correcting a misreading of the result on the desirability of a zero capital tax that result required separability of consumption from labor and that the only unobservable differences among individuals were in fixed labor productivities in a general equilibrium model one needs to take into account the effects of policy changes on binding self selection constraints in a simple model with time separability but with non separability between consumption and leisure capital taxation depends on the complementarity substitutability of leisure during work with retirement consumption the final section constructs a simple two class model capitalists who maximize dynastic welfare and workers who save for retirement whose productivity can be enhanced by publicly provided education it derives a simple expression for the optimal capital tax which is positive so long as the social welfare function is sufficiently equalitarian and the productivity of educational expenditures is sufficiently high

carbon pricing carbon sequestration and social discounting abstract this paper studies the optimal taxation of carbon emissions in a dynastic economy when the welfare function places direct pareto weights on unborn generations the social discount rate is lower than the discount rate of the current generation i show that this welfare criterion has important consequences for the structure of the optimal regulatory system in particular i show that i the optimal carbon tax does not in general equal the social cost of carbon ii a subsidy on oil reserves is sometimes optimal and iii carbon trading programs should limit the award of carbon offset allowances

intergenerational disagreement and optimal taxation of parental transfers we study optimal taxation of bequests and inter vivos transfers in a model where altruistic parents and their offspring disagree on intertemporal trade offs we show that the laissez faire equilibrium is pareto inefficient and whenever offspring are impatient from their parents perspective optimal policy involves a positive tax on parental transfers cautioned by the technical complications present in this class of models our normative prescriptions do not rely on the assumption of differentiability of the agents policy functions

the market valuation of the fgis grain quality characteristics the issue addressed in this paper is whether the grain quality factors used by the federal grain inspection service in determining the quality grades of wheat exported by the united states including test weight dockage moisture content percentage of foreign material percentage of shrunken and broken kernels and protein content are characteristics that influence the price of wheat for export using shiplot data on the transactions price for hard red winter wheat hard red spring wheat and soft white wheat and the associated quality characteristics covering the period january 1990 to october 1991 and exported to 63 countires the results suggest that only the test weight and the protein content are characteristics consistently valued by the market

currency substitution in turkey although currency substitution is a widely observed phenomenon in both developed and developing counries most of the studies on currency substitutioin in small open economies have focused on high inflatin south american countries this paper extends the previous analysis to a newly industrializing high inflation economy namely turkey a vector autoregression model has beeb estimated employing the certain policy variables to investigate the dynamics of currency substitution in the economy dynamic impulse responses show that the residents have a preference for substitutiong foregn currencies for domestic currency because of reawl exchange rate depreciations the results suggest that to stop or to reverse the on going currency substition process a plicy aiming to increase the expected real return on domestic assets should be adopted

incentive effects of inheritances and optimal estate taxation i consider optimal nonlinear taxation of income and bequests with a joy of giving bequest motive and explicitly characterize the optimal estate tax rate the optimal formula trades off correction of externality from giving and discouraging effort of children due to income effect generated by bequests the analysis shows that optimality of a positive tax on bequests rests on the strength of the effect of bequests on behavior of future generations the analysis also suggests that inheritance rather than estate tax is better suited to implement the optimal policy

valuation of the quality characteristics of japanese soybean imports the implicit prices of the physical and intrinsic characteristics of soybeans exported by the united states are estimated the results suggest that the us grades and standards assigned to a shipment either do not provide information valued by the market or the existence of us grades and standards has resulted in the definition of a standard of quality that is met by all exporters additionally in japan there are two identifiable soybean markets a premium food bean market and a crushing market the soybeans going into the food market for processing can be identified by their lower oil content lower percentage of split and damaged beans and a lower amount of foreign material as well as smaller shipment sizes

do americans want to tax wealth evidence from online surveys abstract a vast theoretical literature in public finance has studied the desirability of capital taxation this discussion largely ignores the political feasibility of taxing wealth we provide to our knowledge the first investigation of individuals preferences over jointly taxing income and wealth we provide subjects with a set of hypothetical individuals incomes and wealth and elicit subjects preferred absolute tax bill for each individual our method allows us to unobtrusively map both income earned and accumulated wealth into desired tax levels our regression results yield roughly linear desired tax rates on income of about 14 respondents suggested tax rates indicate positive desired wealth taxation when we distinguish between sources of wealth we find that in line with recent theoretical arguments subjects implied tax rate on wealth is 3 when the source of wealth is inheritance far higher than the 0 8 rate when wealth is from savings textual analysis of respondents justifications for their tax rates imply limited concern for the elasticity of tax bases with respect to net of tax rates

on the indeterminacy of equilibrium exchange rates in this paper we consider a particular international economic policy regime the laissez faire regime the distinguishing features of which are unrestricted portfolio choice and floating exchange rates and as we show this regime although favored by many economists is not economically feasible it does not have a determinate equilibrium that is an implication of an overlapping generations model more basically it is an implication of the notion that money is wanted only in order to accomplish trades

long run income and interest elasticities of money demand in the united states econometric techniques designed to accommodate nonstationary data are used to reexamine the stability of interest and income elasticities of money demand in the united states estimates based on postwar monthly data reveal a stable relationship between m1 velocity and various measures of interest rates that proxy the opportunity cost of holding money balances tests for the existence of cointegration and methods used to estimate the income and interest elasticities are based on procedures prescribed by soren johansen 1988 corresponding error correction estimates offer insight as to the dynamics of the process that maintains the equilibrium relation between velocity and interest rates copyright 1991 by mit press

the integration of the market for soybeans and soybean products abstract this article addresses the question of whether soybeans soybean meal and soybean oil produced in the usa and exported were part of a single world geographic market during the decade of the 1980s an answer to this question is sought using an approach to defining a geographic market based on the notion of instantaneous causality the empirical results based on prices for soybeans soybean meal and soybean oil for three spatially diffuse locations suggest that there was but a single identifiable world market for these commodities over the period of study this has implications for the continued presence of soybean production subsidies and discussions on international agreements designed to reduce or eliminate these subsidies

opportunity and social mobility the fact that the children of rich parents have better economic prospects than the children of poor parents unequal opportunity is generally thought to be one of the weak points of modem capitalist societies the ability of the descendants of poor families to eventually become rich and the descendants of rich families to eventually become poor social mobility is commonly considered to be one of the strong points of these societies here i argue that both of these characteristics are in fact necessary implications of an efficient societal arrangement when incentives to work hard must be provided i argue this point using a generational version of the model of phelan and townsend 1991 an infinitely repeated general equilibrium economy with incentive constraints in my model each household s stochastic output is a function of its level of effort since effort is assumed to be costly and privately observed households can shirk higher than minimal effort levels must be induced by making a household s present or future consumption dependent on the household s observed output history a large literature considers models similar to this including green 1987 atkeson and lucas 1992 phelan 1994 1995 wang 1995 hopenhayn and nicolini 1997 khan and ravikumar 2002 the main difference between the economies in that literature and here is that here instead of a household consisting of a single infinitely lived individual a household consists of a sequence of altruistically linked individuals a familial dynasty each of whom lives for one period this difference affects the appropriate societal ranking of allocations when households consist of a single infinitely lived individual allocations can be ranked according to their implied distributions of ex ante lifetime utilities if one allocation delivers a distribution of ex ante utilities dominated by another allocation then the first allocation is inefficient however if a household consists of a sequence of altruistically linked individuals then the appropriate ranking of allocations is no longer obvious how those in the first generation rank allocations will in general differ from how their descendants rank allocations this paper addresses this conflict between generations by ranking allocations according to a rawlsian veil of ignorance criterion rawls 1971 that is here society seeks to maximize the expected dynastic utility utility including altruism toward descendants of an individual who does not know into which generation he will be born and the identity or output levels of his ancestors 1 i argue that this corresponds to a societal ranking which does

non linear taxation of bequests equal sharing rules and the tradeoff between intra and inter family inequalities this paper studies the design of the tax and regulatory regime applied to bequests bequests are observable while parent s wealth and children s earning abilities are not parents know their children s earning abilities parents are altruistic their utility depends on their children s utilities but weights may differ between children the optimal tax schedule strikes a balance between the often conflicting incentive and corrective effects when parents attach identical weights to their children an estate taxation is sufficient equal sharing rules appear to be appropriate only in extreme cases such as in presence of the so called cinderella effect

currency substitution and seigniorage maximizing inflation the case of cambodia this article contributes a new empirical study on currency substitution in cambodia in our analysis a model of money in the utility function is adopted the empirical results indicate that the elasticity of substitution between foreign and domestic real currency balances in cambodia is high moreover the high share of foreign real balances in providing domestic liquidity services in cambodia is also confirmed by empirical analysis given these findings the effects of the currency substitution on the government ability to gain from seigniorage revenue are also examined the analysis from simulated results shows that the cambodian government has little opportunity to gain from seigniorage revenue

convertibility risk and dollarization in mexico a vectorautoregressive analysis abstract using a general equilibrium model of dollarization in mexico i find a negative and significant relationship between the expected rate of peso depreciation and the dollarization ratio this result seemingly anomalous compared to previous studies of currency substitution is attributed to the convertibility risk associated with holding mexdollars several alternative explanations are either rejected or found to be of secondary importance the results imply that traditional methodologies used to test currency substitution and inferences drawn about the phenomenon should be revised in cases similar to mexico

currency substitution and monetary autonomy the foreign demand for us demand deposits abstract this paper presents new evidence of currency substitution using the two step estimator of cointegrated systems developed by engle and granger 1987 we estimate and find cointegration among variables suggested by the money services model of currency substitution following engle et al 1989 we estimate an error correction model for each of five countries allowing isolation of long term from short term influences on the foreign demand for us demand deposits our results suggest that currency substitution is a potentially significant phenomenon influencing long term monetary policy independence

a reexamination of the optimal nonlinear income tax abstract this paper investigates mirrlees model of optimal income taxation it provides a concrete example of utility and density functions for which the solution to the usual first order model is not implementable i e and example where the first order approach does not work adding second order conditions leads to an extended model and to implementable solutions if these conditions are binding one gets a kink in the optimal net income schedule and bunching of individuals occurs the properties of an optimal nonlinear income tax are reexamined within the extended model

democracy war and wealth lessons from two centuries of inheritance taxation in this article we use an original data set to provide the first empirical analysis of the political economy of inherited wealth taxation that covers a significant number of countries and a long time frame 1816 2000 our goal is to understand why if inheritance taxes are often very old taxes the implementation of inheritance tax rates significant enough to affect wealth inequality is a much more recent phenomenon we hypothesize alternatively that significant taxation of inherited wealth depended on 1 the extension of the suffrage and 2 political conditions created by mass mobilization for war using a difference in differences framework for identification we find little evidence for the suffrage hypothesis but very strong evidence for the mass mobilization hypothesis our study has implications for understanding the evolution of wealth inequality and the political conditions under which countries are likely to implement policies that significantly redistribute wealth and income

optimal taxation of bequests in a model with initial wealth we formulate an optimal taxation model where parents leave bequests to their descendants for altruistic reasons in contrast to the standard model individuals differ not only in earning abilities but also in initial inherited wealth in this model a redistributive motive for an inheritance tax which is equivalent to a uniform tax on all expenditures arises given that initial wealth increases with earning abilities the introduction of the inheritance tax either increases intertemporal social welfare or has an ambiguous effect depending on whether the external effect related to altruism is accounted for in the social objective

currency substitution and instability in the world dollar standard comment myron ross correctly points out in his comment that u s price inflation is better predicted by the american money supply mlus than by the broader ten country world money supply mlw over the whole statistical time series from 1960 to 1980 provided in mckinnon s 1982 article specifically he showed that american price inflation is more highly correlated with mlus lagged one or two years than with mlw similarly lagged however mckinnon s present tense assertion that in general growth in the world money supply is a better predictor of american price inflation than is american money growth applies only to the weak dollar standard of the 1970 s and early 1980 s as his preceding discussion intended but failed to indicate clearly only in this later period of volatile exchange rates and price level instability in the united states do alternative hard currencies such as the yen and deutsche mark become competitive as international stores of value and units of account hence international currency substitution associated with the ebb and flow of speculation against or for the dollar significantly destabilized the demand for mlus in the 1970 s and 1980 s and only in this later period might one expect the sum of these internationally substitutable monies ml to predict world and perhaps even american price inflation better than does mlus in contrast during the strong dollar standard of the 1950 s and 1960 s the dollar was unchallenged as international money exchange rates were by and large convincingly fixed speculation for or against the dollar was incapable of substantially altering u s interest rates or of directly affecting the demand for mlus because cyclical international influences did not then destabilize the demand for dollars mlus was by itself a fairly efficient predictor of american prices thus ross s statistical results for the period 1960 to 1980 show somewhat greater predictive strength in mlus compared to ml because the 1960 s data outweigh the dissimilar data of the 1970 s let us instead partition the sample of imf data around the year 1970 whence began the transition from fixed to fluctuating exchange rates and the maturation of alternative monetary systems in europe and japan after applying similar statistical correlation procedures to those used by ross we show a striking structural shift in the world s monetary system the explanatory power of mlw increases sharply as that of mlus declines moderately tan 1982 for the early period of 1960 to 1970 table 1 shows simple correlation coefficients between annual percentage changes in money supplies and changes in american and world wholesale price indices the mlus provides a good explanation of u s prices and of world prices one to two years hence whereas the broader definition of mlw in which mlus enters with a 50 percent weight does surprisingly poorly being insignificantly correlated with american or world prices apparently money growth in industrial countries other than the united states was not then an independent source of worldwide inflationary pressure during the strong dollar standard table 2 shows the same simple correlations between percentage changes in prices and money for the weak dollar standard of stanford university please note that a typographical error giving the last word in the original title as market appeared on the cover of the june 1982 issue of this review the title was correct in the table of contents and on the article

be careful what you calibrate for social discounting in general equilibrium abstract concerns about intergenerational equity have led to an influential practice of setting social utility discount rates based on ethical considerations rather than to match household behavior particularly in climate change economics e g stern 2006 this paper formalizes the broader policy implications of this approach in general equilibrium by characterizing jointly optimal environmental and fiscal policies in a climate economy model with differential planner household discounting first i show that decentralizing the optimal allocation requires not only high carbon prices but also fundamental changes to tax policy if the government discounts the future less than households implementing the optimal allocation requires an effective capital income subsidy a negative intertemporal wedge and in a setting with distortionary taxation an effective labor consumption tax wedge that is decreasing over time second if the government cannot subsidize capital income the constrained optimal carbon tax may be up to 50 below the present value of marginal damages the social cost of carbon due to the general equilibrium effects of climate policy on household savings third given the choice to optimize either carbon capital or labor income taxes the socially discounting planner s welfare ranking is ambiguous over a standard range of parameters overall in general equilibrium a policy maker s choice to adopt differential social discounting may thus overturn conventional recommendations for both environmental and fiscal policy

a traditional interpretation of macroeconomic fluctuations under the traditional interpretation of macroeconomic fluctuations aggregate demand shocks move output and prices in the same direction while aggregate supply shocks move output and prices in opposite directions this paper examines the joint behavior of u s output unemployment prices wages and nominal money and asks whether it is consistent with this interpretation the answer is a qualified yes

currency substitution under finance constraints the perfect foresight continuous time couterpart of lucas and stokey s cash in advance model is generalized to the case of two currencies the money demand function for eac currency has as arguments the endowments of goods associated with each denomination various monetary shocks are investigated including permanent and temporary changes in levels and growth rates it is shown that substitution can be an important factor in explaining the possible negative transmission of inflation the amount of volatility of exchange rates and the degree tp which exchange rate movements approximate a random walk

explaining fiscal policies and inflation in developing countries abstract in this paper we investigate empirically the determinants of inflation seigniorage and fiscal deficits in developing countries we first test the optimal taxation theory of inflation for a group of 21 lcds we find that the implications of this theory are rejected for all these countries we then proceed to implement a number of tests based on the new political economy approach to macroeconomic policies we deal with some of the implications of a credibility and reputation model and of a strategic government behavior model we find that the data support the most important predictions of the political economy view of fiscal policy our measures of political instability and political polarization play an important role in explaining cross country differences in seigniorage inflation government borrowing and fiscal deficits we end by discussing directions for future research

optimal indirect and capital taxation we consider an environment in which agents skills are private information and follow arbitrary stochastic processes we prove that it is typically pareto optimal for an individual s marginal benefit of investing in capital to exceed his marginal cost of doing so this wedge is consistent with a positive tax on capital income we also prove that it is pareto optimal for the marginal rate of substitution between any two consumption goods to equal the marginal rate of transformation this lack of a wedge is consistent with uniform taxation of consumption goods within a period

money and interest in a cash in advance economy the authors analyze an aggregative general equilibrium model in which the use of money is motivated by a cash in advance constraint applied to purchases of a subset of consumption goods the system is subject to both real and monetary shocks which are economy wide and observed by all they develop methods for verifying the existence of characterizing and explicitly calculating equilibria copyright 1987 by the econometric society

end use performance uncertainty and competition in international wheat markets the input characteristic model icm is expanded in this paper to account for technical coefficient uncertainty the model is used to analyze effects of price and quality on competition in the u k wheat import market results are used to identify critical quality characteristics and impacts of technical coefficient uncertainty on import demand the expected values for most characteristics of u s wheat have greater variances than those of canadian wheat results show that both the characteristic s level and variance are important in determining import market shares

foreign inflation transmission under flexible exchange rates and currency substitution the dynamic and steady state effects of a permanent unanticipated increase in foreign inflation on a small open economy are analyzed under flexible exchange rates and currency substitution the velocity of domestic money and consequently the domestic inflation rate may rise along the transition path to steady state but only if demand for foreign currency is sufficiently elastic such that the substitution from foreign to domestic money on impact is large higher foreign inflation is transmitted negatively when demand is inelastic all else constant a higher initial level of foreign real balances increases the magnitude of the transmission effects copyright 1990 by ohio state university press

progressive estate taxation we present a model with altruistic parents and heterogeneous productivity we derive two key properties for optimal estate taxation first the estate tax should be progressive so that parents leaving a higher bequest face a lower net return on bequests second marginal estate taxes should be negative so that all parents face a marginal subsidy on bequests both properties can be implemented with a simple nonlinear tax on bequests levied separately from the income tax these results apply to other intergenerational transfers such as educational investments and are robust to endogenous fertility choices both estate or inheritance taxes can implement the optimal allocation but we show that the inheritance tax has some advantages finally when we impose an ad hoc constraint requiring marginal estate taxes to be nonnegative the optimum features a zero tax up to an exemption level and a progressive tax thereafter

the promise of positive optimal taxation normative diversity and a role for equal sacrifice abstract a prominent assumption in modern optimal tax research is that the objective of taxation is utilitarian i present new survey evidence that most people reject this assumption s implications for several prominent features of tax policy instead preferring tax policies based at least in part on a classic alternative objective the principle of equal sacrifice i generalize the standard model to accommodate this preference for a mixed objective proposing a method by which to make disparate criteria commensurable while respecting pareto efficiency then i show that optimal policy in this generalized model calibrated to the survey evidence and u s microdata is capable of quantitatively matching several features of existing tax policy that are incompatible in the conventional model but widely endorsed in the survey and reality including the coexistence of substantial redistribution and limited tagging together these findings demonstrate the potential of a positive theory of optimal taxation

communication commitment and growth abstract we study the effect on the growth of an economy of alternative financing opportunities in a stochastic growth model with incentive constraints efficient accumulation mechanisms are designed and computed for economies that differ in their incentive structure we show that when borrowing is subject to information constraints there is a computable efficient transfer mechanism that does not affect capital accumulation and investment patterns even though consumption patterns and the distribution of wealth are affected in contrast enforcement constraints can severely reduce the outside financing opportunities and affect investment patters and economic growth we adapt numerical algorithms for obtaining numerical solutions of these models

the equivalence of lending equilibria and signalling based insurance under asymmetric information i present a model in which a continuum of individuals have stochastic idiosyncratic income shocks complete insurance is physically feasible but unattainable due to an information asymmetry income shocks are observable only by the individuals receiving them any insurance institution must therefore rely on self reporting of income innovations two ways of achieving incentive compatible self reporting are presented the first is a debt market with an explicit lending restriction the second is an insurance contract that linearly filters a signal transmitted by individuals the two are then demonstrated to be identical equilibrium consumption fluctuates in a random walk which is inefficient given the physical potential for complete insurance but is efficient given the information constraints the results are complementary to those of green 1987 but permit more general stochastic processes of income to be analyzed serial correlation of income reduces the efficiency of the insurance

on efficient distribution with private information this paper is a study of the dynamics of the efficient distribution of consumption in an exchange economy with many consumers each of whom is subject to private idiosyncratic taste shocks we propose a recursive method for finding feasible allocations that are incentivecompatible and that are pareto optimal within this set the method is applied to several parametric examples we find that in an efficient allocation the degree of inequality continually increases with a diminishing fraction of the population receiving an increasing fraction of the resources we discuss the extent to which these allocations can be decentralized via market arrangements this paper is a study of the dynamics of the efficient distribution of consumption in an exchange economy with private information the economy we study has a constant endowment flow of a single non storable consumption good which is to be allocated each period among a large number of consumers each period these consumers experience unpredictable idiosyncratic privately observed taste shocks affecting their marginal utility of current consumption efficiency dictates that more resources be allocated to those consumers who in any given period have a high marginal utility of current consumption

optimal government policies in models with heterogeneous agents abstract in this paper we develop a new approach for finding optimal government policies in economies with heterogeneous agents using the calculus of variations we present three classes of equilibrium conditions from government s and individual agent s optimization problems 1 the first order conditions the government s lagrange euler equation and the individual agent s euler equation 2 the stationarity condition on the distribution function and 3 the aggregate market clearing conditions these conditions form a system of functional equations which we solve numerically the solution takes into account simultaneously the effect of the government policy on individual allocations the resulting optimal distribution of agents in the steady state and therefore equilibrium prices we illustrate the methodology on a ramsey problem with heterogeneous agents finding the optimal limiting tax on total income

currency substitution capital mobility and money demand abstract this paper re examines the currency substitution cs issue by specifying a general portfolio balance pb model where domestic residents demand for foreign money is distinguished from their demands for foreign non monetary assets the latter possibility which reflects international capital mobility as opposed to cs per se is already a key feature in the open economy macro literature the inclusion of foreign money leaves the usual asset demand functions unchanged in the pb model that ignores cs at least as far as the appropriate rate of return arguments and their signs are concerned although this suggests that cs is of limited importance in macro modelling it implication for the estimation of money demand functions is pursued an initial attempt is made to empirically isolate the separate efects of high capital mobility and currency substitution for canada germany the united kingdom and the united states the results while not conclusive due to high multicollinearity problems bring into question the empirical as well as the theoretical relevance of currency substitution

repeated principal agent relationships with lending and borrowing abstract it is shown optimal long term contracts are strictly better than a series of unrelated short term contracts for two reasons long term contracts allow risk to be spread over time and the agent s intertemporal choices provide information about the unobservable random variable

a note on subsidizing gifts abstract altruistically motivated gifts involve a species of consumption externality donors obtain an altruistic benefit from the effect of their gifts on donees utility but do not take into account that the benefit to donees is itself relevant to social welfare the level of gift giving thus will be lower than is optimal a subsidy can correct this problem while compulsory transfers assuming the state lacks information about who is altruistic and bargaining between donors and donees cannot the rationale for subsidizing gifts offered here does not depend on whether the donee s activity is a public good as with gifts for medical research or whether the transfer tends to equalize the wealth of donors and donees factors emphasized in the exisitng literature on the subject

long term care policy with nonlinear strategic bequests abstract we study the design of long term care ltc policies when children differ in their cost of providing informal care parents do not observe this cost but they can commit to a bequest rule specifying a transfer gift or bequest conditional on the level of informal care care provided by high cost children is distorted downwards in order to reduce the rent of low cost ones social ltc insurance is designed to maximize a weighted sum of parents and children s utility when the ltc benefit is uniform and children have no weight in social welfare the risk of becoming dependent is fully insured otherwise the insurance coverage of parents is adjusted to enhance the utility of the caregivers parents are never fully insured against the risk of having a high cost child a general policy conditioning ltc benefits on transfers provides full insurance even against the risk of having high cost children quite surprisingly the level of informal care induced by the optimal uniform or nonuniform policy always increases in the children s welfare weight

the case for a progressive tax from basic research to policy recommendations the fair distribution of the tax burden has long been a central issue in policyhe fair distribution of the tax burden has long been a central issue in policymaking a large academic literature has developed models of optimal tax making a large academic literature has developed models of optimal tax theory to cast light on the problem of optimal tax progressivity in this theory to cast light on the problem of optimal tax progressivity in this paper we explore the path from basic research results in optimal tax theory to paper we explore the path from basic research results in optimal tax theory to formulating policy recommendations formulating policy recommendations models in optimal tax theory typically posit that the tax system should maximize a models in optimal tax theory typically posit that the tax system should maximize a social welfare function subject to a government budget constraint taking into account social welfare function subject to a government budget constraint taking into account that individuals respond to taxes and transfers social welfare is larger when resources that individuals respond to taxes and transfers social welfare is larger when resources are more equally distributed but redistributive taxes and transfers can negatively are more equally distributed but redistributive taxes and transfers can negatively affect incentives to work save and earn income in the fi rst place this creates the clasaffect incentives to work save and earn income in the fi rst place this creates the classical trade off between equity and effi ciency which is at the core of the optimal income sical trade off between equity and effi ciency which is at the core of the optimal income tax problem in general optimal tax analyses maximize social welfare as a function of tax problem in general optimal tax analyses maximize social welfare as a function of individual utilities the sum of utilities in the utilitarian case the marginal weight for individual utilities the sum of utilities in the utilitarian case the marginal weight for a given person in the social welfare function measures the value of an additional dollar a given person in the social welfare function measures the value of an additional dollar of consumption expressed in terms of public funds such welfare weights depend on of consumption expressed in terms of public funds such welfare weights depend on the level of redistribution and are decreasing with income whenever society values the level of redistribution and are decreasing with income whenever society values more equality of income therefore optimal income tax theory is fi rst a normative more equality of income therefore optimal income tax theory is fi rst a normative theory that shows how a social welfare objective combines with constraints arising from theory that shows how a social welfare objective combines with constraints arising from limits on resources and behavioral responses to taxation in order to derive specifi c limits on resources and behavioral responses to taxation in order to derive specifi c

wealth inequality family background and estate taxation this paper generates two main contributions first it provides a new theory of wealth inequality that merges two empirically relevant forces generating inequality bequest motives and inheritance of ability across generations and an earnings process that allows for more earnings risk for the richest second it uses the resulting calibrated framework to study the effects of changing estate taxation increasing the estate tax reduces the wealth concentration in the hands of the richest few and the economic advantage of being born to a rich and super rich family at the cost of reduced aggregate capital and output however all of these effects are quite small in contrast increasing estate taxation can generate a significant welfare gain to a newborn under the veil of ignorance but this comes at a large welfare cost for the super rich

the demand for money in the united states evidence from cointegration tests this paper uses recent cointegration test procedures to investigate the underlying economic relationship between real money balances real income and interest rates for the united states unlike recent studies of money demand the authors analysis uses quarterly data spanning the period 1915 88 thus providing a sample encompassing a wide variety of economic experiences the evidence presented indicates that the broader m2 measure of money is the preferable measure with which to consider the long run effects of monetary policy copyright 1991 by ohio state university press

currency substitution new evidence from emerging economies abstract this paper provides new empirical evidence for currency substitution in different emerging market economies estimation results from a money in the utility function framework indicate that foreign currencies are strong substitutes for domestic currency in producing liquidity services

inequality and social discounting we explore steady state inequality in an intergenerational model with altruistically linked individuals who experience privately observed taste shocks when the welfare function depends only on the initial generation efficiency requires immiseration inequality grows without bound and everyone s consumption converges to zero we study other efficient allocations in which the welfare function values future generations directly placing a positive but vanishing weight on their welfare the social discount factor is then higher than the private one and for any such difference we find that consumption exhibits mean reversion and that a steady state cross sectional distribution for consumption and welfare exists with no one trapped at misery

risky human capital and deferred capital income taxation abstract we study the structure of optimal wedges and capital taxes in a dynamic mirrlees economy with endogenous distribution of skills human capital is a private stochastic state variable that drives the skill process of each individual building on the findings of the labor literature we construct a tractable life cycle model of human capital evolution with risky investment and stochastic depreciation in this setting we demonstrate the optimality of a a human capital premium i e an excess return on human capital relative to physical capital b a large intertemporal wedge early in the life cycle and c a non zero intratemporal wedge even at the top of the skill distribution at all dates except the last date in the life cycle the main implication for the structure of optimal linear capital taxes is the necessity of deferred taxation of physical capital the average marginal tax rate on physical capital held in every period is zero in present value however expected capital tax payments do not equal zero in every period necessarily agents face negative expected capital tax payments early in the life cycle and positive expected capital tax payments late in the life cycle

on repeated moral hazard with discounting in this paper we analyze optimal contracts in an infinitely repeated agency model in which both the principal and agent discount the future we show that there is a stationary representation of the optimal contract when the agent s conditional discounted expected utility is used as a state variable this representation reduces the multi period problem to a static variational problem which can be analyzed using standard variational techniques this reduction is used to obtain several properties of the contract

in praise of frank ramsey s contribution to the theory of taxation frank ramsey s brilliant 1927 paper modestly entitled a contribution to the theory of taxation is a landmark in the economics of public finance nearly a half century later through the work of diamond and mirrlees 1971 and mirrlees 1971 his paper can be thought of as launching the field of optimal taxation and revolutionising public finance ramsey f p 1927 a contribution to the theory of taxation economic journal vol 37 145 pp 47 61

hedonic prices for a nondurable good the case of breakfast cereals numerous studies have estimated hedonic price functions for durable goods in this paper the authors apply the methodology to breakfast cereals a nondurable good they employ maximum likelihood to estimate the hedonic price functions using data from three large supermarkets the price function depends on characteristics that provide taste nutrition and convenience to consumers and the estimates yield insights into pricing policies consumer preferences and consumer use of information copyright 1991 by mit press

the optimal inflation tax in the presence of currency substitution abstract an important result in the optimal inflation tax literature is that if money is modeled as reducing transactions costs the optimal nominal interest rate is zero this paper examines this issue in the context of a small open economy where both domestic and foreign currency circulate as media of exchange it is shown that the presence of foreign money enables the government to reduce the distortion introduced into the economy by a positive foreign nominal interest rate by setting a positive domestic nominal interest rate