capitalization of government support in agricultural land prices what do we know abstract the objective of this paper is to provide an overview of existing literature both theoretically and empirically on the extent to which agricultural subsidies do translate into higher land values and rents and finally benefit landowners instead of agricultural producers our review shows that agricultural support policy instruments contribute to increasing the rental price of farmland and that the extent of this increase closely depends on the level of the supply price elasticity of farmland relative to those of other factors inputs on the one hand and on the range of the possibilities of factor input substitution in agricultural production on the other hand the empirical literature shows that land prices and rents have in general a significant positive and inelastic response to government support such inelastic response is thought to reflect the uncertain future of the farm programmes and in general studies have indicated that land prices are more responsive to government based returns than to market based returns

the sustainability of south african fiscal policy an historical perspective this article examines the issue of long run fiscal sustainability in south africa by applying a battery of recently developed unit root and cointegration tests to real revenue and spending data for the period 1895 to 2005 the results provide evidence that allowing for structural breaks south african revenue and spending during this period were i 1 series and cointegrated with the estimated long run equilibrium relation supporting the presence of a weak deficit sustainability condition the views expressed in this article are those of the authors and should not be attributed to the international monetary fund

market contagion evidence from the panics of 1854 and 1857 to test a model of contagion where individuals hear some bad news and communicate it to their acquaintances who then pass it on leading to a market panic requires a knowledge of the information networks of participants something hitherto unavailable for two panics in the 1850s this paper examines the behavior of irish depositors in a new york bank as recent immigrants their social network was determined largely by their place of origin in ireland and where they lived in new york during both panics this social network turns out to be the prime determinant of behavior

are ghettos good or bad spatial separation of racial and ethnic groups may theoretically have positive or negative effects on the economic performance of those groups we examine the effects of segregation on outcomes for blacks in schooling employment and single parenthood we find that blacks in more segregated areas have significantly worse outcomes than blacks in less segregated areas we control for the endogeneity of location choice using instruments based on political factors topographical features and residence before adulthood a one standard deviation decrease in segregation would eliminate one third of the black white differences in most of our outcomes

ethnicity neighborhoods and human capital externalities the socioeconomic performance of today s workers depends not only on parental skills but also on the average skills of the ethnic group in the parents generation or ethnic capital this paper investigates the link between the ethnic externality and ethnic neighborhoods the evidence indicates that residential segregation and the external effect of ethnicity are linked partly because ethnic capital summarizes the socioeconomic background of the neighborhood where the children were raised ethnicity has an external effect even among persons who grow up in the same neighborhood when children are exposed frequently to persons who share the same ethnic background copyright 1995 by american economic association

the math gender gap the role of culture this paper investigates the effect of gender related culture on the math gender gap by analysing math test scores of second generation immigrants who are all exposed to a common set of host country laws and institutions we find that immigrant girls whose parents come from more gender equal countries perform better relative to similar boys than immigrant girls whose parents come from less gender equal countries suggesting an important role of cultural beliefs on the role of women in society on the math gender gap the transmission of cultural beliefs accounts for at least two thirds of the overall contribution of gender related factors

black residential centralization and the spatial mismatch hypothesis abstract black residential centralization is found to be an important determinant of black employment status when estimated across metropolitan areas mas to avoid neighborhood selection the effects are greatest in large mas for the young and elderly and for individuals with less than a college education instrumental variable iv estimates support ordinary least squares ols results black residential centralization can account for 48 62 of the black white employment differential among 18 30 year olds living in large mas when estimated together black residential centralization job centralization and segregation all have large effects but the effects of black centralization and job centralization are considerably larger

community membership aspirations the link between inequality and redistribution revisited the issue at stake is to explain why redistributive policies may vary so greatly for a given distributional skewness to this end we abandon the stylized median voter and study how distributional tensions can act in many different ways depending on social affinity between the different economic classes and their prospect of upward or downward mobility in particular we consider that socioeconomic group membership through its implied social interactions and peer effects is an important determinant of an individual s outcome hence agents while voting on a social contract must take into account the consequences of their choice over their ex post belonging to a particular community this allows us to shed light on how the endogenous sorting of the population into clusters may interact with the balance of political power leading to a non monotonic relationship through the pattern of community formation in the economy between inequality and the pressure for redistributive policies

social networks and technology adoption in northern mozambique despite their potentially strong impact on poverty agricultural innovations are often adopted slowly using a unique household dataset on sunflower adoption in mozambique we analyse whether and how individual adoption decisions depend upon the choices of others in the same social networks since farmers anticipate that they will share information with others we expect farmers to be more likely to adopt when they know many other adopters dynamic considerations however suggest that farmers who know many adopters might strategically delay adoption to free ride on the information gathered by others we present empirical evidence that shows that the relationship between the probability of adoption and the number of known adopters is shaped as an inverse u in line with information sharing the network effect is stronger for farmers who report discussing agriculture with others the data contains information which is needed to ameliorate the identification issues that commonly arise in this context in particular social networks are precisely identified and in addition we can control for village heterogeneity and endogenous group formation

street crime and street culture a model shows how reputation concerns can support widespread street crime a street culture where the direct incentives for such behavior are weak there are social benefits to street reputations but those benefits are dominated when reputation concerns draw into crime those who obtain no direct gain from it the model matches facts about violent crime that a standard model cannot easily explain including low monetary returns disproportionate victimization of the young and poor and high variance in rates across small distances the model generates novel implications for policy and social science including a negative effect of social capital

residential segregation discrimination and african american theater entry during jim crow abstract we examine the effect of residential segregation on the entry of movie theaters serving african american customers in the 1950s which provided an alternative to the segregated theaters of the jim crow era consistent with preference externalities in racial and ethnic enclaves we find that greater residential segregation was associated with more african american theater entry estimates from a model of firm entry indicate that residential segregation increased the variable profits of african american movie theaters reducing the market size required for theater entry by 13 3 percent for a one standard deviation increase in segregation we also provide evidence that racial bias increased both variable profits and fixed costs and on net reduced african american theater entry an interpretation consistent with this finding is that racial animus forced black customers toward segregated accommodations while also limiting access to key inputs for potential entrants

spurious rejections by cointegration tests induced by structural breaks the effects on three cointegration tests are examined when the series analysed are independent integrated processes each with a structural break although there are differences in detail among the tests the results indicate in all cases that when structural breaks are neglected in the analysis spurious rejections indicating the presence of cointegration can occur

a structural time series approach to modelling multiple and resurgent meat scares in italy this paper exploits a structural time series approach to model the time pattern of multiple and resurgent food scares and their direct and cross product impacts on consumer response a structural time series almost ideal demand system sts aids is embedded in a vector error correction framework to allow for dynamic effects vec sts aids italian aggregate household data on meat demand is used to assess the time varying impact of a resurgent bse crisis 1996 and 2000 and the 1999 dioxin crisis the vec sts aids model monitors the short run impacts and performs satisfactorily in terms of residuals diagnostics overcoming the major problems encountered by the customary vector error correction approach

like grand parent like child multigenerational mobility across the eu abstract this study shows that the multigenerational transmission of inequality in most of the 28 eu countries is higher than what a parent to child paradigm would suggest while a strand of the literature claims that this is due to a direct grandparental effect economic historian gregory clark argues that multigenerational mobility follows a markovian process in his view not only are previous estimates severely attenuated by an errors in variables problem but persistence is also constant across time and space using a unique retrospective survey containing information on three generations of european citizens we provide suggestive evidence against such a universal law of mobility while estimates based on measurement error models show that persistence is indeed as strong as clark suggests there are cross country differences furthermore for a few eu countries we cannot reject the hypothesis of a direct grandparental effect overall there is no single data generating process to describe multigenerational persistence that fits all eu countries 2

the fischler reform of the common agricultural policy and agricultural land prices based on 7 300 agricultural land sales transactions we estimate the effect of the 2003 reform of the e u common agricultural policy on land prices as opposed to the main body of the literature on agricultural land values we do not start from a demand oriented net present value approach or hedonic pricing method but derive our reduced form pricing equation from a spatial land sales market model our empirical model accounts for spatial dependence and endogeneity of explanatory variables a reduction of payments by 50 ha would decrease land sales prices by 445 ha before and by 984 ha after the reform jel q15 q18

the capitalization of coupled and decoupled cap payments into land rental rates this article explores the extent to which payments under the common agricultural policy cap are capitalized into land rents in ireland with implications for the transfer efficiency of such payments since subsidies may not benefit targeted recipients if they are capitalized into input prices capitalization in the years preceding and following the decoupling of agricultural support payments from agricultural production is explored in the period prior to decoupling direct support pillar 1 payments were highly capitalized into irish agricultural rents 67 90 cents per euro of subsidies while in the post decoupling period capitalization appears to have declined somewhat

information flows and social externalities in a tanzanian banana growing village this article analyses the role of social networks as facilitators of information flows and banana output increase based on a village census full information is available on the socio economic characteristics and banana production of farmers kinship group members neighbours and informal insurance group members the census data enable us to use individual specific reference groups and include exogenous group controls to tackle standard difficulties related to identification and omitted variables bias when analysing social effects for the survey village of nyakatoke in tanzania the results suggest that information flows exist within all types of groups analysed but output externalities are limited to kinship groups using networks may offer scope for effective information flows on agricultural techniques but our evidence suggests that not just any local network will have a social externality impact requiring a clear understanding of local social networks for maximum impact

socially optimal social security and education subsidization in a dynastic model with human capital externalities fertility and endogenous growth abstract this paper considers socially optimal government policies in a dynastic family model with physical capital human capital endogenous fertility and positive spillovers from average human capital such spillovers reduce human capital investment but raise fertility from their social optimum we first characterize the social optimum with a non convex feasible set due to the quantity quality tradeoff concerning children we then show that social security and education subsidization together financed by labor income taxes can fully eliminate the efficiency losses of the spillovers and achieve the social optimum under plausible conditions however none of the policies can do so alone

unequal societies income distribution and the social contract this paper develops a theory of inequality and the social contract aiming to explain how countries with similar economic and political fundamentals can sustain such different systems of social insurance fiscal redistribution and education finance as those of the united states and western europe with imperfect credit and insurance markets some redistributive policies can improve ex ante welfare and this implies that their political support tends to decrease with inequality conversely with credit constraints lower redistribution translates into more persistent inequality hence the potential for multiple steady states with mutually reinforcing high inequality and low redistribution or vice versa

unit roots structural breaks and cointegration in the uk public finances 1750 2004 in this article we report results from several traditional and more recently developed unit root and cointegration tests allowing for structural breaks which indicate that uk government revenue and spending during 1750 2004 were i 1 series and cointegrated and that the uk public finances have been on a consistently sustainable path over the long run

sixty years after the magic carpet ride the long run effect of the early childhood environment on social and economic outcomes this paper estimates the effect of the early childhood environment on a large array of social and economic outcomes lasting almost 60 years to do this we exploit variation in the living conditions experienced by yemenite children after being airlifted to israel in 1949 we find that children who were placed in a more modern environment i e with better sanitary and infrastructure conditions were more likely to obtain higher education marry at an older age have fewer children and work at age 55 they were also more likely to be assimilated into israeli society to be less religious and have more worldly tastes in music and food however these effects are found mainly for women and not for men we also find an effect on the next generation children who lived in a better environment grew up to have children with more education

education and ethnicity in canada an intergenerational perspective ethnic and intergenerational aspects of human capital investment are explored levels of and cross sectional returns to education across ethnic groups in canada are estimated and large differences observed for men a positive correlation exists between ethnic group average years of education and its return we also find large negative correlations between ethnic group average educational outcomes and the previous generation s fertility suggesting a role for home production as a complement to formal education and supporting models of child quantity quality trade offs very slow intergenerational convergence in ethnic group level educational and labor market outcomes is also observed

the long run consequences of living in a poor neighborhood author s oreopoulos philip abstract many social scientists presume that the quality of the neigborhood to which children are exposed affects a variety of long run social outcomes i examine the effect on the long run labor market outcomes of adults who were assigned when young to substantially different public housing projects in toronto administrative data are matched to public housing addresses to track children from the program for over 15 years the main finding is that neighborhood quality plays little role in determining a youth s adult earnings education attainment or welfare participation but does affect exposure to crime while living in contrasting housing projects cannot explain large variances in labor market outcomes family differences as measured by sibling outcome correlations account for up to 30 percent of the total variance in the data

optimal social security in a dynastic model with human capital externalities fertility and endogenous growth abstract in this paper we investigate the optimal scale of pay as you go social security in a dynastic family model with human capital externalities fertility and endogenous growth human capital externalities reduce the return to human capital investment and hence lead to under investment in human capital and over reproduction of the population if the taste for the number of children is sufficiently weak relative to the taste for the welfare of children social security can be welfare enhancing by reducing fertility and raising human capital investment per child

keeping the doctor away experimental evidence on investment in preventative health products household investment in preventative health products in developing countries is typically low even though the returns to such products are high in this paper we experimentally estimate demand curves for health products and test whether 1 information about health risk 2 cash liquidity 3 peer effects and 4 intra household differences in preferences affect demand in our main experiment in kenya involving children s shoes critical for preventing hookworm infection price is by far the most important predictor of purchase providing liquidity and targeting women also increased demand information had no effect even though we find that genuine learning occurred we find no peer effects even though people discussed the product purchase decision extensively we find similar results for price and information in three smaller studies in guatemala india and uganda in experiments involving soap and multivitamins

ethnic enclaves and immigrant labor market outcomes quasi experimental evidence i examine the effects of the ethnic enclave size on labor market outcomes of immigrants i account for ability sorting into enclaves by exploiting a danish spatial dispersal policy under which refugees were randomly dispersed across locations first i find strong evidence that refugees with unfavorable unobserved characteristics self select into ethnic enclaves second a relative standard deviation increase in the ethnic enclave size increases annual earnings by 18 on average irrespective of skill level third further findings are consistent with the explanation that ethnic networks disseminate job information which increases the job worker match quality and thereby the hourly wage rate

social contacts and occupational choice social contacts help workers to find jobs but those jobs need not be in the occupations where workers are most productive hence social contacts can generate mismatch between a worker s occupational choice and his comparative productive advantage thus economies with dense social networks can exhibit apparently low labor force quality and as a result low returns to firms investment and depressed aggregate productivity we employ us and european data for the 1990 s to test the key prediction that social contacts distort workers occupational choices in a direction that reduces their apparent productivity we find that the use of social contacts helps find jobs one to two months sooner but leads to individual wage discounts of 5 to 7 and produces negative externalities on aggregate productivity

mexican enclaves and the price of culture abstract studies of mexican immigrant earnings consistently find a negative relationship between concentration of mexicans and earnings smith and newman economic inquiry 15 51 66 1977 and yuengert journal of human resources 30 194 204 1995 among others attribute this enclave effect as the compensating differential for culture however the existence of a land market suggests that the price of culture may also depend on culture s effect on the price of land adopting a model developed by roback economic inquiry 26 23 41 1988 i first show that the price of mexican culture is a function of culture s effect on both earnings and rents second using data for california and texas from the 1990 census i estimate the price for mexican culture consistent with the model culture lowers earnings and increases rents in enclaves with larger concentration of mexicans in fact land s share of the price of culture is as much as 42 therefore studies that attribute the lower earnings in enclaves as the compensating differential for enclave externalities underestimate the value of culture this paper also tests several predictions implied by the theoretical model satisfying the general equilibrium conditions the earnings of other workers are higher in enclaves furthermore except for mexican americans the assumption that culture is not an amenity to other workers is supported by the data

can foreign direct investment harness energy consumption in china a time series investigation abstract this study assesses the long run relationship and short run dynamics between foreign direct investment fdi and energy consumption in china applying the bounds testing approach to annual data from 1982 to 2012 we find that a stable fdi energy nexus exists in the long run and a 1 increase in fdi reduces energy consumption by 0 21 however this study shows a positive association between fdi and energy consumption in the short run attributing to the dominance of the scale effect our results remain robust to different measurements and estimators it is suggested that the chinese government shall support the inward fdi in the tertiary and energy sectors and strengthen local absorptive capacities to fully internalize fdi related knowledge spillovers in energy conservation

the pursuit of opportunity explaining selective black migration abstract this paper examines the destination choices of black migrants during the great migration as previous research has shown educated blacks were more likely to relocate to the north in the pre world war ii era this analysis shows that this tendency can be attributed to the better educated migrants ability to finance transportation costs greater responsiveness to intercity wage differentials and stronger distaste for southern disamenities after 1940 the destination choice gap closed largely because migrant responses to wage differentials and valuation of southern disamenities changed these changes are observed both in the population at large and within birth year cohorts

job information networks neighborhood effects and inequality this paper explores the theoretical and empirical literature to examine the use by different social groups of informal sources of information provided by friends relatives and acquaintances during job search and its consequences for the job market it also addresses the role of network structure and size the resource endowments of contacts and nature of the links between contacts to explain differences in the effects of job information networks in doing so the paper also turns to the sociology literature on job information networks and provides an economic perspective on such sociological concepts as strong versus weak ties inbreeding distance from structural holes etc the paper distinguishes between models of exogenous job information networks that is where individuals obtain job related information through a given social structure and endogenous job information networks which are social networks that result from individuals uncoordinated actions the paper pays special attention to such issues as physical and social proximity and sharing of information and discusses them in the context of the recent social interactions and neighborhood effects literature finally the paper outlines a model that integrates job information networks where interactions occur in business cycle frequencies with the dynamics of human capital formation which include the joint effects of parental community and neighborhood human capital and are set in life cycle frequencies for the purpose of organizing suggestions for future research and examining earned income inequality

bridging trade theory and labour econometrics the effects of international migration this paper surveys current theoretical and empirical research on international migration with a particular emphasis on the links between trade theory and labour empirics

growth divergence due to spatial externalities abstract on using household level panel data to unpack a regional growth regression for rural china we find that aggregate divergence at the regional level is entirely due to external effects of community wealth at the household level

causes of u s farm commodity programs this paper i s an attempt to explain variations by commodity in producer protection afforded by farm price support programs since the1930s particularly emphasized are theideas that these programs are essentially income redistributional measures and that given political forces the programs are attempts to redistribute efficiently variables associated with the cost to producers of generating political pressure and the social cost deadweight losses of redistribution are both found to be empirically important copyright 1987 by university of chicago press

government debt and economic growth in an overlapping generations model prior studies have shown that an increase in government debt raises the real interest rate and lowers the rate of economic growth in an overlapping generations model of endogenous growth this paper shows that an increase in government debt may not increase the real interest rate with the real interest rate being greater than the growth and that an introduction of government debt will increase the growth rate of per capita output if the growth rate is greater than the real interest rate and will decrease the growth rate if the growth rate is less than the real interest rate recent decades have seen a large increase in the share of government debt in national income in many countries this paper develops an endogenous growth model of overlapping generations to examine the effect of government debt on the rate of economic growth most prior studies of the effects of government policies on economic growth have assumed that government debt is absent romer 1986 jones and manuelli 1990 king and rebelo 1990 and rebelo 1991 showed that when government spending is not productive an increase in the income tax rate will lower the rate of per capita output growth 2 barro 1990 showed that an increase in government spending may either increase or decrease the rate of growth in a model with productive government spending government debt was incorporated in endogenous growth models by king 1992 and van der ploeg and alogoskoufis 1994 king 1992 developed a model of endogenous growth and showed that a necessary condition for the feasibility of perpetual debt finance is that labor s share of income must be greater than two thirds van der ploeg and alogoskoufis 1994 developed a blanchard type overlapping generations og model of endogenous growth and found that an increase in government debt arising from an intertemporal shift in taxation reduces the growth rate this paper analyzes the effect of government debt by developing a diamond type of og

lm cointegration tests allowing for an unknown number of breaks implications for the forward rate unbiasedness hypothesis abstractthis article extends the lagrange multiplier lm cointegration test proposed by westerlund and edgerton we 2007 by allowing for an unknown number of breaks monte carlo simulations provide two main results first a loss of power in the lm cointegration tests is detected when potential multiple breaks are ignored second the modified testing procedures do not affect the asymptotic distribution and major properties of the tests of we under the null but noticeably increase their testing power in presence of multiple breaks we also provide empirical applications of the proposed tests for the forward rate unbiasedness hypothesis fruh the results reveal that the fruh does hold when the effects of the multiple structural breaks are taken into account

a measure of segregation based on social interactions we develop an index of segregation based on two premises 1 a measure of segregation should disaggregate to the level of individuals and 2 an individual is more segregated the more segregated are the agents with whom she interacts we present an index that satisfies 1 and 2 and that is based on agents social interactions the extent to which blacks interact with blacks whites with whites etc we use the index to measure school and residential segregation using detailed data on friendship networks we calculate levels of within school racial segregation in a sample of u s schools we also calculate residential segregation across major u s cities using block level data from the 2000 u s census

on the determinants of fiscal centralization theory and evidence abstract this paper presents a simple model that unifies most of the results of the literature on fiscal federalism the model describes an economy characterized by two levels of government one public good and a private good the predictions of the model are tested by using a new set of measures of fiscal centralization the main findings are that country size income per capita ethnic fractionalization and level of democracy are negatively correlated with the degree of fiscal centralization the model is tested using ols tobit and semi parametric estimators the paper also shows that the variables included in the regression are helpful in the prediction of changes in the level of centralization

robust determinants of intergenerational mobility in the land of opportunity abstract this paper revisits the influential work by chetty et al 2014 who attempt to explain the variation in intergenerational mobility across commuter zones in the us i e spatial mobility using nine classes of variables we employ bayesian model averaging methods that allow for model uncertainty to identify robust predictors of spatial mobility in doing so we pay special attention to the specification of model and parameter priors we also investigate the heterogeneous effects of these predictors on spatial mobility across commuter zones in different average income quintiles our findings suggest a more nuance and complex characterization of the spatial mobility process than that proposed by chetty hendren kline and saez

ethnic capital and intergenerational transmission of educational attainment this paper studies the role of ethnicity in the intergenerational transmission of educational attainment within the framework outlined by borjas quarterly journal of economics 1992 107 1 123 150 relying on heteroskedasticity to identify parameters in the presence of endogenous regressors i find evidence that the ordinary least squares estimates of the effect of ethnic capital on intergenerational transmission of education are biased upwards due to the transfer of unobserved ability i also find that while the role of parental capital has declined over time ethnic capital has a relatively constant effect on intergenerational transmission of educational attainment

the cotton influence index an examination of u s cotton subsidies given the lack of a bill or amendment specific to cotton we introduce a cotton influence index to capture legislators influence in championing the cause of the cotton growers during the hearings of the farm security and rural investment act of 2002 regression analyses reveal a relationship between cotton influence index and campaign contributions cotton farmland party affiliation and ideology tobit analysis indicates a significant relationship between different actions and participations by representatives to advance the interest of cotton that is components of this index and their future cotton political action committees pacs contributions to them copyright 2006 oxford university press

do emerging markets matter in the world oil pricing system evidence of imported crude by china and india abstract this paper provides empirical evidence on the changing structure of world oil price system by identifying an additional driver emerging market factor we choose china and india as a representative of emerging markets to examine if the quantity of crude oil imported by china and india is significant in the existing oil pricing system kaufmann et al 2004 our data starts from january 2002 and ends in march 2010 which includes the oil shock of 2007 2008 we utilize cointegration and error correction model framework developed by engle granger 1987 and gregory hansen 1996 in the analysis our results indicate that demand from emerging markets has become a significant factor in the world oil pricing system since 2003 this result is significant as it lends empirical support to the widely held conjecture that the oil shock of 2007 2008 is a demand led shock hamilton 2009 our result also has significant policy implications that go beyond the oil shock the emerging market factor is there to stay and reflects the changing power between emerging and developed economies in the world economic system as a result of decades of fast economic development in the former it will certainly influence policy issues related to oil and beyond

replication in labor economics evidence from data and what it suggests examining the most heavily cited publications in labor economics from the early 1990s i show that few of over 3000 articles citing them directly replicates them they are replicated more frequently using data from other time periods and economies so that the validity of their central ideas has typically been verified this pattern of scholarship suggests beyond the currently required depositing of data and code upon publication that there is little need for formal mechanisms for replication the market for scholarship already produces replications of non laboratory applied research

the evolution of farm programs and their contribution to agricultural land values the economic environment of agricultural producers has been influenced by formal u s agricultural policy for more than seventy years among the first pieces of new deal legislation proposed by incoming president franklin d roosevelt was a farm program designed to address declines in crop prices and net farm income key features of the agriculture act of 1933 included mandatory price support for specified commodities direct subsidy payments to farmers and supply controls farm programs once viewed as temporary and supplementary to agricultural earnings are increasingly viewed as permanent and of major proportion gardner examined the relationships between u s farm commodity programs and u s farm structure while others see sumner for concept evidence and implications have examined farm programs and specific crops gardner 2002 and weersink et al analyzed the effects of farm program programs upon land values these studies examined various aspects of agricultural policy including whether farm program payments have enhanced land prices and landowner wealth rather than the welfare of producers while it would seem logical that revenueenhancing farm programs would increase land values reliably estimating the magnitudes of farm program effects upon land values is an empirically challenging task both statistical and budgeting based methodologies have been used to estimate the share of land prices generated by farm program payments statistically based studies are complicated by the fact that both real per acre crop receipts

a spatial temporal model of human capital accumulation abstract we develop an overlapping generations model of human capital accumulation and analyze its spatial and temporal properties the interplay between local spillovers of human capital and global market participation partitions the society into socio economic classes we focus upon stationary equilibria and show that a large class of them are locally stable stationary equilibria can be homogeneous where the human capital distribution is degenerate or stratified with a distinct spatial pattern of human capital distribution we provide several examples and specify conditions under which equilibria are sensitive to the spatial structure of the society we illustrate our results by numerical simulations journal of economic literature classification numbers d90 i21 j24 o15

ethnic enclaves and the economic success of immigrants evidence from a natural experiment recent immigrants tend to locate in ethnic enclaves within metropolitan areas the economic consequence of living in such enclaves is still an unresolved issue we use an immigrant policy initiative in sweden when government authorities distributed refugee immigrants across locales in a way that may be considered exogenous this policy initiative provides a unique natural experiment which allows us to estimate the causal effect on labor market outcomes of living in enclaves we find substantive evidence of sorting across locations when sorting is taken into account living in enclaves improves labor market outcomes for instance the earnings gain associated with a standard deviation increase in ethnic concentration is in the order of four to five percent

self selection and the earnings of immigrants this paper analyzes the way in which the earnings of the immigrant population may be expected to differ from the earnings of the native population because of the endogeneity of the decision to migrate the empirical study shows that differences in the u s earnings of immigrants with the same measured skills but from different home countries are attributable to variations in political and economic conditions in the countries of origin at the time of migration excerpt

family values and the regulation of labor flexible labor markets requires geographically mobile workers to be e cient otherwise rms can take advantage of the immobility of workers and extract monopsony rents in cultures with strong family ties moving away from home is costly thus individuals with strong family ties rationally choose regulated labor markets to avoid moving and limiting the monopsony power of rms even though regulation generates lower employment and income empirically we do nd that individuals who inherit stronger family ties are less mobile have lower wages are less often employed and support more stringent labor market regulations there are also positive cross country correlations between the strength of family ties and labor market rigidities finally we nd positive correlations between labor market rigidities at the beginning of the twenty rst century and family values prevailing before world war ii which suggests that labor market regulations have deep cultural roots

education social cohesion and economic growth analysis of the contribution of education to growth through its role in promoting a common culture indicates that when different cultural groups separately determine the social content of their school curricula excessive polarization can result with less than optimal growth the optimal trajectory involves a gradual reciprocal convergence of school curricula towards the middle ground this may be difficult to implement in a political context in which all agents are identified with one group or another when curricula are determined by legislative bargaining centralization of schooling may result in overly rapid homogenization in some cases and perhaps surprisingly excessive polarization in others this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

schooling and economic growth a king rebelo experiment with human capital abstract education is added to the standard neoclassical growth model by calibrating a human capital technology to the empirical evidence on schooling simulation experiments patterned after king and rebelo 1993 american economic review 83 908 931 are conducted when agents act as if they are infinitely lived interest rates are too high and the rise in school spending is too weak over the transitional growth path when schooling is inefficiently low due to binding intergenerational credit constraints interest rates deviate only moderately from the steady state level and the historical rise in school spending is fully explained

revisiting the relationship between ethnic diversity and preferences for redistribution comment in this paper we return to the question raised in dahlberg et al 2012 concerning a causal relationship between ethnic diversity and preferences for redistribution a re analysis of their study indicates that results are based on an endogenous instrument and severe sample attrition bias correcting for either of these two problems reveals that there is no relationship between ethnic diversity and preferences for redistribution more generally we provide results that put into question the conventional description of the swedish refugee placement policy

the evolution of human capital in an interacting agent economy abstract we consider a dynamic spatial model of human capital accumulation in the presence of local spillovers in learning our results provide conditions under which homogeneous and heterogeneous steady states exist and are locally stable our model also considers the impact of role models and mentors and indicates when they can have a positive or negative impact upon the steady state human capital levels we also show that in some circumstances the dynamics of human capital accumulation can be chaotic

ethnic concentration and language fluency of immigrants evidence from the guest worker placement in germany this paper analyses the impact of regional ethnic concentration on the language proficiency and language use of immigrants it solves the endogeneity of immigrants location choices by exploiting a peculiar episode of the german immigration history the exogenous placement of guest workers after wwii one of the largest guest worker programs on record the econometric approach accounts for several sources of measurement error and provides a falsification exercise that hypothetically relocates the most language proficient immigrants into ethnic enclaves to test the extent of cross regional sorting necessary to render the results purely spurious the results show a robust negative effect of ethnic concentration on immigrants language ability which is driven by differences in contact rates with natives and not by differences in the willingness to integrate the paper discusses these findings against the background of a language production function and in the light of feasible policy options to foster the language acquisition of immigrants

human capital and interethnic marriage decisions common explanations for the generally negative relationship between education and ethnic endogamy include 1 education makes immigrants and their children better able to adapt to native culture thereby eliminating the need for a same ethnicity spouse and 2 education raises the likelihood of leaving ethnic enclaves thereby decreasing the probability of meeting potential same ethnicity spouses this paper considers a third option the role of assortative matching on education if education distributions differ by ethnicity then spouse searchers may trade similarities in ethnicity for similarities in education when choosing spouses u s census data on second generation immigrants provide strong support for the assortative matching mechanism

the impact of decoupled payments on u s cropland values an extensive literature has shown that various farm programs may influence the value of farmland but other studies have not examined the cropland price effects of direct or decoupled payments separate from countercyclical payments this study uses nationally representative confidential field level panel data with farmer reported per acre land values we analyze the impact of decoupled and other farm program payments on farmland values using a fixed effects model and controlling for various factors that influence farmland values we find that an additional dollar of decoupled payments has a large and statistically significant impact on farmland values of about 18 per acre these results are comparable with similar studies undertaken in europe

early labour market experiences of second generation immigrants in sweden this article investigates second generation immigrant s early labour market performances in sweden to study their labour market success we estimate dynamic transition rate models cox type proportional hazards in a competing risk framework using register based panel data set our results reveal that parental resources affect not only second generation immigrants continuing education but also their later labour market success the study verifies that finding a job is difficult for second generation immigrants and the significant unobserved heterogeneity parameter estimate may indicate discrimination as a whole second generation immigrants have worse labour market performances compared to their native born counterparts

networks or neighborhoods correlations in the use of publicly funded maternity care in california abstract this study focuses on network effects in the utilization of publicly funded prenatal care using vital statistics data from california for 1989 2000 networks are defined using 5 digit zip codes and a woman s racial or ethnic group like others we find evidence that the use of public programs is highly correlated within groups defined using race ethnicity and neighborhoods these correlations persist even when we control for many unobserved characteristics by including zip code year fixed effects and when we focus on the interaction between own group behavior and measures of the potential for contacts with other members of the group contact availability however the richness of our data allows us to go further and to conduct several tests of one important hypothesis about networks that the estimated effects represent information sharing within groups the results cast doubt on the idea that the observed correlations can be interpreted as evidence of information sharing in particular we find estimated effects to be as large or larger among women who have previously used the program as among first time users

econometric modeling of the capitalization formula for farmland prices an econometric model is formulated to explain the dynamic behavior in farmland prices a second order rational distributed lag on net crop share rents received by landlords captures the dynamic movements of prices and performs well in conditional post sample forecasts the adjustment path of land prices in response to a perturbation in rents is a protracted dampened cycle the implicitly estimated tax free capitalization rate on rent associated with equilibrium land price is 4 0 neither the expected rate of inflation nor an exponential trend on rent expectations has a significant effect on land prices

do global co2 emissions from fossil fuel consumption exhibit long memory a fractional integration analysis abstractin this article we use an autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average approach to measure the degree of fractional integration of aggregate world co2 emissions and its five components coal oil gas cement and gas flaring we find that all variables are stationary and mean reverting but exhibit long term memory our results suggest that both coal and oil combustion emissions have the weakest degree of long range dependence while emissions from gas and gas flaring have the strongest with evidence of long memory we conclude that transitory policy shocks are likely to have long lasting effects but not permanent effects accordingly permanent effects on co2 emissions require a more permanent policy stance in this context if one were to rely only on testing for stationarity and non stationarity one would likely conclude in favour of non stationarity and therefore that even transitory policy shocks have permanent effects our fractional integration analysis highlights that this i

real convergence in some central and eastern european countries this article examines the real convergence hypothesis in some central and east european countries both towards the german and the us economies by means of using time series techniques during the period 1950 to 2003 no evidence is found of real convergence for the whole period however when one allows for structural breaks evidence is found of a catch up process during the 1990s to 2003 period for poland the czech republic and hungary towards germany and only for poland towards the us economy

forecasting the car penetration rate cpr in china a nonparametric approach with strong economic growth the auto industry has made great breakthroughs in recent years and has become a backbone industry in china while cars play an increasingly important role and are now the principal part of the auto industry both china s government and academic circles take strong interest in the prediction of cpr i e car penetration rate or cars per thousand people which will be the main guidance for the future industry policy we summarize the existing problems in recent research and propose to use nonparametric methods to estimate the cpr and its elasticity with respect to gdp per capita gdppc the results indicate that the nonparametric methods provide a much better fit than the conventional ols method and more importantly it captures the nonlinearity of the elasticity of cpr with respect to gdppc finally we predict future cpr in china

geographic poverty traps a micro model of consumption growth in rural china how important are neighbourhood endowments of physical and human capital in explaining diverging fortunes over time for otherwise identical households in a developing rural economy to answer this question we develop an estimable micro model of consumption growth allowing for constraints on factor mobility and externalities whereby geographic capital can influence the productivity of a household s own capital our statistical test has considerable power in detecting geographic effects given that we control for latent heterogeneity in measured consumption growth rates at the micro level we find robust evidence of geographic poverty traps in farm household panel data from post reform rural china our results strengthen the equity and efficiency case for public investment in lagging poor areas in this setting copyright 2002 john wiley sons ltd

the effect of agricultural policy on farmland values the extent to which agricultural support programs have been capitalized into farmland prices has been examined in this study a present value land price model was developed which decomposes returns to the land base into its two possible sources farm production and government subsidies and allows the discount rates associated with these two income sources to vary the empirical results indicate that government payments are discounted less than marketbased returns in ontario thus government payments have been viewed as a more stable source of income to ontario farm operators during the last half century than market based returns

regional agricultural endowments and shifts of poverty trap equilibria evidence from ethiopian panel data we examine changes in patterns of equilibria over time and across regions applied to the ethiopia rural household survey we revisit incidence of multiple equilibria using new nonparametric techniques and examine single equilibria that remain stagnant below the poverty line using quantile regressions we identify differences across the income distribution we introduce the empirical analysis of sequences of equilibria we identify a single equilibrium in 1994 1999 but find a second higher equilibrium emerging in 1999 2004 evidencing a shift from unimodal toward a bimodal asset distribution the most deprived region exhibits a low level stagnant equilibrium despite significant rural income growth nationwide

does the river spill over estimating the economic returns to attending a racially diverse college t he attainment of a diverse student body is a constitutionally permissible goal for an institution of higher education the atmosphere of speculation experiment and creation so essential to the quality of higher education is widely believed to be promoted by a diverse student body lewis powell regents of the university of california v bakke 438 u s 265 1978 pp 311 12 quoting sweezy v new hampshire 354 u s 234 1957 p 263 i introduction for more than a quarter century the belief that diversity contributes to the quality of undergraduate and graduate education has motivated court opinions and college policies regarding racial preferences in admissions l surprisingly the social sciences have provided very little evidence to support or refute this claim such evidence would clearly be of great interest both to policy makers and to scholars conducting more general studies of the impacts of affirmative action on higher education 2 in the absence of programs employing random assignment of individuals to campuses with varying degrees of racial diversity any evidence offered on this question will be subject to criticism that diversity may correlate with unobserved determinants of individual outcomes 3 in such a scenario policy makers face an unenviable choice of making uninformed decisions or paying attention to potentially imperfect research findings this article does not claim to solve all the issues involved in the identification of racial diversity effects as described below however we use a promising data source the college and beyond c b data set and a variety of identification strategies to gain some degree of insight into the question of whether exposure to diversity is beneficial for college students we find no evidence of a positive link between the two variables and the imperfections of our research design most likely lead us to overstate the likelihood that there is such a link we begin by translating powell s hypothesis into economic terms building on the existing concepts of human capital becker 1964 and ethnic capital borjas 1992 1995 and inspired by lazear s 1995 model of cultural assimilation we introduce the concept of diversity capital we define diversity capital as a measure of an individual s ability to create surplus in interactions with individuals of different racial ethnic or socioeconomic backgrounds in this context the beliefs articulated by lewis powell in 1978 translate into a hypothesis that a diverse student body contributes directly or indirectly to diversity capital with this proposed causal mechanism in mind we focus our empirical analysis on a direct estimation of the relationship between minority representation and the postgraduation outcomes of undergraduates on elite campuses although our model of the returns to collegiate diversity is simple empirical estimation of the returns to diversity is complicated by an omitted variable problem college racial composition may correlate with unobserved institution level components of education quality or with individual level determinants of productivity in our sample of selective colleges the sign of this bias is most likely positive among selective colleges those matriculating the students with the highest sat scores also tend to have higher minority representation if student sat scores are imperfectly but positively correlated with unobserved determinants of productivity our estimates will exhibit a positive bias and thus overstate the case that exposure to underrepresented minorities urms improves postgraduate outcomes 4 in one set of specifications we allow the effect of exposure to diversity to vary with the relative position of individual students and peers in the sat score distribution in general we find that the type of diversity increase brought about by affirmative action policies which brings lower scoring minority students into potential contact with higher scoring majority race students is if anything detrimental to majority race students

networks in the modern economy mexican migrants in the u s labor market this paper attempts to identify job networks among mexican migrants in the u s labor market the empirical analysis uses data on migration patterns and labor market outcomes based on a sample of individuals belonging to multiple origin communities in mexico over a long period of time each community s network is measured by the proportion of the sampled individuals who are located at the destination the united states in any year we verify that the same individual is more likely to be employed and to hold a higher paying nonagricultural job when his network is exogenously larger by including individual fixed effects in the employment and occupation regressions and by using rainfall in the origin community as an instrument for the size of the network at the destination

the inheritance of inequality how level is the intergenerational playing field what are the causal mechanisms that underlie the intergenerational transmission of economic status are these mechanisms amenable to public policies in a way that would make the attainment of economic success more fair these are the questions we will try to answer

the impact of decoupled payments on farm choices conceptual and methodological challenges abstract in this paper we review the methodological framework for analysing decoupled payments in models of agricultural production market and technological uncertainty farm efficiency credit constraints farm household choices involving extra agricultural decisions policy uncertainty and long run impact of decoupling on investment and land values are the relevant issues that should be pursued by methodological and empirical analysis future research should refine the analysis of decoupled payments mainly trying to provide results that can be useful for policy simulation to bridge the gap between analysis at the individual level and sector policy models

ethnic externalities in education and second generation immigrants i analyse the role of ethnic and native human capital defined respectively as the average years of schooling of ethnic groups and of natives within a specific region and of ethnic concentrations in the educational attainment of second generation immigrants in germany compared to natives children parents education has a small and insignificant effect on second generation immigrants education ethnic concentrations have a negative effect while ethnic capital is insignificant the effect of native capital too is insignificant but much larger in magnitude than the effect of ethnic capital for women mother s education is relatively more important for men ethnic concentrations constitute a stronger impediment to educational attainment than for women

how large are learning externalities the quantitative features of human capital externalities are not fully understood although static externalities are estimated in some studies learning externalities remain mostly unestimated by calibrating a growth model this article provides an estimate of learning externalities the calibration uses an equilibrium condition that equates private returns on physical capital and human capital the results suggest that sizable learning externalities exist even in a conservative setup the estimated social rate of return on human capital is 9 0 compared to the private rate of return 6 6 therefore human capital externalities are an important source of economic growth