the impact of unemployment insurance on job search evidence from google search data job search is a key choice variable in theories of labor markets but is difficult to measure directly we develop a job search activity index based on google search data the google job search index gjsi we validate the gjsi with both survey and web based measures of job search unlike those measures the gjsi is high frequency geographically precise and available in real time we demonstrate the gjsi s utility by using it to study the effects of unemployment insurance policy changes between 2008 and 2014 we find no evidence of an economically meaningful effect of these changes on aggregate search

polarized business cycles abstract four stylized facts motivate this paper i business cycle movements are wider in emerging countries ec than in developed ones ii ec experience greater economic policy uncertainty iii ec are more polarized and less politically stable and iv epu is positively related to political polarization a standard real business cycle model augmented to incorporate political polarization a polarized business cycle pbc model is shown to be consistent with these facts we first derive our results analytically and then quantify the effects of a permanent increase in polarization to the us economy

social networks and technology adoption in northern mozambique despite their potentially strong impact on poverty agricultural innovations are often adopted slowly using a unique household dataset on sunflower adoption in mozambique we analyse whether and how individual adoption decisions depend upon the choices of others in the same social networks since farmers anticipate that they will share information with others we expect farmers to be more likely to adopt when they know many other adopters dynamic considerations however suggest that farmers who know many adopters might strategically delay adoption to free ride on the information gathered by others we present empirical evidence that shows that the relationship between the probability of adoption and the number of known adopters is shaped as an inverse u in line with information sharing the network effect is stronger for farmers who report discussing agriculture with others the data contains information which is needed to ameliorate the identification issues that commonly arise in this context in particular social networks are precisely identified and in addition we can control for village heterogeneity and endogenous group formation

partisan conflict and private investment abstract american politics have been characterized by a high degree of partisan conflict in recent years combined with a divided government this has led not only to significant congressional gridlock but also to spells of high fiscal policy uncertainty the unusually slow recovery from the great recession during the same period suggests the possibility that the two phenomena may be related in this paper i investigate the hypothesis that political discord depresses private investment to this end i construct a novel high frequency indicator of partisan conflict the partisan conflict index pci uses a semantic search methodology to measure the frequency of newspaper articles reporting lawmakers disagreement about policy i find a negative relationship between the pci and aggregate investment in the us moreover the decline is persistent which may help explain the slow recovery observed since the 2007 recession ended partisan conflict is also associated with lower capital investment rates at the firm level even when economic policy uncertainty and macroeconomic conditions are controlled for i estimate that about 27 of the decline in corporate investment between 2007 2009 can be attributed to a rise in partisan conflict

ideological segregation online and offline we use individual and aggregate data to ask how the internet is changing the ideological segregation of the american electorate focusing on online news consumption offline news consumption and face to face social interactions we define ideological segregation in each domain using standard indices from the literature on racial segregation we find that ideological segregation of online news consumption is low in absolute terms higher than the segregation of most offline news consumption and significan tly lower than the segregation of face to face interactions with neighbors co workers or family members we find no evidence that the internet is becoming more segregated over time

financial deregulation and household saving the last decade has seen widespread domestic financial deregulation in the industrial world particularly in the united states united kingdom and the nordic countries resulting in an increase in competition both between banks and saving institutions thrifts or building societies as they moved into each others services and within each sector this opened up new financial options particularly for households the sector that was probably most affected by government regulation for example there was a significant increase in equity withdrawals from personal housing wealth in both the united kingdom and united states over the ig8os 2 this period also saw a significant change in household consumption behaviour the most dramatic illustration being the fall in the household saving ratio in those countries where the process of deregulation has gone furthest this paper reports the results from estimating a model of household saving using regional data for the united kingdom with a particular emphasis on the interaction between household saving and financial deregulation the estimates are used to calculate the relative importance of different factors in the fall in personal saving over the i98os i conclude that deregulation lowered the equilibrium level of saving over the i98os probably 2 percentage points per annum as well as making saving significantly more dependent on changes in wealth income and real interest rates there have been a number of earlier empirical studies looking at the interaction between financial deregulation and household behaviour manchester and poterba i 989 miles i 992 and koskela et al i 992 present empirical evidence on the interaction between deregulation the housing market and saving in the united states united kingdom and finland respectively others have estimated saving functions which include variables representing the effects of financial deregulation or have considered the impact of financial deregulation on liquidity constraints in consumption 3 the

peers at work we study peer effects in the workplace specifically we investigate whether how and why the productivity of a worker depends on the productivity of coworkers in the same team using high frequency data on worker productivity from a large supermarket chain we find strong evidence of positive productiv ity spillovers from the introduction of highly productive personnel into a shift worker effort is positively related to the productivity of workers who see him but not workers who do not see him additionally workers respond more to the presence of coworkers with whom they frequently interact we conclude that social pressure can partially internalize free riding externalities that are built into many workplaces jel j24 l81 m54

peer effects and social networks in education this paper studies whether structural properties of friendship networks affect individual outcomes in education we first develop a model that shows that at the nash equilibrium the outcome of each individual embedded in a network is proportional to her katz bonacich centrality measure this measure takes into account both direct and indirect friends of each individual but puts less weight to her distant friends we then bring the model to the data by using a very detailed dataset of adolescent friendship networks we show that after controlling for observable individual characteristics and unobservable network specific factors the individual s position in a network as measured by her katz bonacich centrality is a key determinant of her level of activity a standard deviation increase in the katz bonacich centrality increases the pupil school performance by more than 7 percent of one standard deviation

seigniorage and political instability the importance of seigniorage relative to other sources of government revenue differs markedly across countries this paper tries to explain this regularity by studying a political model of tax reform the model implies that countries with a more unstable and polarized political system will have more inefficient tax structures and thus will rely more heavily on seigniorage this prediction of the model is tested on cross sectional data for seventy countries the authors find that after controlling for other variables political instability is positively associated with seigniorage copyright 1992 by american economic association

competition for attention we present a model of market competition in which consumers attention is drawn to the products most salient attributes firms compete for consumer attention via their choices of quality and price strategic positioning of a product affects how all other products are perceived with this attention externality depending on the cost of producing quality some markets exhibit commoditized price salient equilibria while others exhibit de commoditized quality salient equilibria when the costs of quality change innovation can lead to radical shifts in markets as in the case of decommoditization of the coffee market by starbucks in the context of financial innovation the model generates the phenomenon of reaching for yield

a positive theory of fiscal deficits and government debt this paper considers an economy in which policymakers with different preferences alternate in office as a result of elections government debt is used strategically by each policymaker to influence the choices of his successors if different policymakers disagree about the desired composition of government spending between two public goods the economy exhibits a deficits bias that is debt accumulation is higher than it would be with a social planner the equilibrium level of debt is larger the larger is the degree of polarization between alternating governments and the less likely it is that the current government will be re elected

peer effects in program participation the influence of peers could play an important role in the take up of social programs however estimating peer effects has proven challenging given the problems of reflection correlated unobservables and endogenous group membership we overcome these identification issues in the context of paid paternity leave in norway using a regression discontinuity design our approach differs from existing literature which attempts to measure peer effects by exploiting random assignment to peer groups in contrast we study peer effects in naturally occurring peer groups but exploit random variation in the price of a social program for a subset of individuals fathers of children born after april 1 1993 in norway were eligible for one month of governmental paid paternity leave while fathers of children born before this cutoff were not there is a sharp increase in fathers taking paternity leave immediately after the reform with take up rising from 3 to 35 while this quasirandom variation changed the cost of paternity leave for some fathers and not others it did not directly affect the cost for the father s coworkers or brothers therefore any effect on the brother or the coworker can be attributed to the influence of the peer father in their network our key findings on peer effects are four fold first we find strong evidence for substantial peer effects of program participation in both workplace and family networks coworkers and brothers are 11 and 15 percentage points respectively more likely to take paternity leave if their peer father was induced to take up leave by the reform second the most likely mechanism is information transmission about costs and benefits including increased knowledge of how an employer will react third there is essential heterogeneity in the size of the peer effect depending on the strength of ties between peers highlighting the importance of duration intensity and frequency of social interactions fourth the estimated peer effect gets amplified over time with each subsequent birth exhibiting a snowball effect as the original peer father s influence cascades through a firm our findings demonstrate that peer effects can lead to long run equilibrium participation rates which are substantially higher than would otherwise be expected

why a stubborn conservative would run a deficit policy with time inconsistent preferences a conservative government in favor of a low level of public consumption knows that it will be replaced by a government in favor of a larger level of public consumption we show that the resulting level of public consumption is in between the levels the two governments would choose if each were in power both in the present and in the future in particular we show that if the conservative government is more stubborn in a particular sense than the succeeding government the conservative government will borrow more than it would had it remained in power in the future

clean evidence on peer effects we study subjects who were asked to fill letters into envelopes with a remuneration independent of output in the pair treatment two subjects worked at the same time in the same room and peer effects were possible in the single treatment subjects worked alone and peer effects were ruled out we find evidence of peer effects in the pair treatment because the standard deviations of output are smaller within pairs than between pairs moreover average output is higher in the pair treatment thus peer effects raise productivity finally low productivity workers are the most sensitive to the behavior of peers

the role of information and social interactions in retirement plan decisions evidence from a randomized experiment this paper analyzes a randomized experiment to shed light on the role of information and social interactions in employees decisions to enroll in a tax deferred account tda retirement plan within a large university the experiment encouraged a random sample of employees in a subset of departments to attend a benee ts information fair organized by the university by promising a monetary reward for attendance the experiment multiplied by more than e ve the attendance rate of these treated individuals relative to controls and tripled that of untreated individuals within departments where some individuals were treated tda enrollment e ve and eleven months after the fair was signie cantly higher in departments where some individuals were treated than in departments where nobody was treated however the effect on tda enrollment is almost as large for individuals in treated departments who did not receive the encouragement as for those who did we provide three interpretations differential treatment effects social network effects and motivational reward effects to account for these results

beyond the median voter preferences district heterogeneity and political representation despite the centrality of the median voter prediction in political economy models overwhelming empirical evidence shows that legislators regularly take positions that diverge significantly from the preferences of the median voter in their districts however all these empirical studies to date lack the necessary data to directly measure the preferences of the median voter we utilize a unique data set consisting of individual level voting data that allows us to construct direct measures of voter preferences we find that legislators are most constrained by the preferences of the median voter in homogeneous districts

random interactions in the chamber legislators behavior and political distance abstract i investigate the role of social interaction among members of parliament mps and the impact of such interaction on the political distance between parties using the random allocation of seats in the icelandic parliament i find that mp s voting and speech behaviors are affected by the behavior of legislators seated nearby i also show that greater random exposure to mps from different parties ultimately reduces the political distance between parties similar evidence is found using historical data for the u s house of representatives by exploiting the introduction of a lottery mechanism to determine desk assignments in 1845 i argue that random seating arrangements could constitute a low cost way of reducing differences within the political arena

identification of endogenous social effects the reflection problem this paper examines the reflection problem that arises when a researcher observing the distribution of behaviour in a population tries to infer whether the average behaviour in some group influences the behaviour of the individuals that comprise the group it is found that inference is not possible unless the researcher has prior information specifying the compisition of reference groups if this information is available the prospects for inference depend critically on the population relationship between the variables defining reference groups and those directly affecting outcomes inference is difficult to implossible if these variables are functionally dependent or are statistically independent the prospects are better if the variables defining reference groups and those directly affecting outcomes are moderately related in the population

how do senators vote disentangling the role of voter preferences party affiliation and senate ideology this paper develops a methodology for consistently estimating the relative weights in senator utility functions despite the fact that senator ideologies are unobserved the empirical results suggest that voter preferences are assigned only one quarter of the weight in senator utility functions the national party line also has some influence but the senator s own ideology is the primary determinant of roll call voting patterns these results cast doubt on the empirical relevance of the median voter theorem estimation of the model requires only roll call voting data making it widely applicable copyright 1996 by american economic association

on the optimal structure of government subsidies for enterprise zones and other locational development programs abstract government locational development programs often reward businesses for decisions they would have made or that are going to be quickly reversed this paper presents a model to determine the amount and structure of government locational subsidies that minimize this problem we model the firm s decision to switch locations as an option whose value depends on stochastic operating costs the costs to switch locations and subsidies offered by the government the government maximizes the expected benefit from the operation of the firm within its preferred location by choosing a subsidy package that explicitly and endogenously recognizes the firm s switching option

learning through noticing theory and evidence from a field experiment we consider a model of technological learning under which people learn through noticing they choose which input dimensions to attend to and subsequently learn about from available data using this model we show how people with a great deal of experience may persistently be off the production frontier because they fail to notice important features of the data they possess we also develop predictions on when these learning failures are likely to occur as well as on the types of interventions that can help people learn we test the model s predictions in a field experiment with seaweed farmers the survey data reveal that these farmers do not attend to pod size a particular input dimension experimental trials suggest that farmers are particularly far from optimizing this dimension furthermore consistent with the model we find that simply having access to the experimental data does not induce learning instead behavioral changes occur only after the farmers are presented with summaries that highlight previously unattended to relationships in the data jel codes d03 d83 o13 o14 o30 q16