the norman conquest of 4 86 and the asset approach to the exchange rate in this paper the asset approach to the exchange rate is tested for the pound dollar exchange rate using quarterly data over the period 1921 to 1925 the out of sample forecasting performance of the asset approach is compared to a purchasing power parity model and random walk representation of the exchange rate the results are shown to be broadly supportive of similar tests conducted for the 1970s experience with floating exchange rates

estimation of the monetary model of exchange rate determination under rational expectations abstract this paper develops a sticky price version of the monetary model of exchange rate determination under rational expectations the reduced form difference equation for the exchange rate has two roots which lie on either side of unity in the solution the stable root is solved backwards and the unstable forwards the model is estimated by the full information maximum likelihood method on deutsche mark dollar data the results are supportive of the rational expectations restrictions

is gaming the optimal strategy the impact of gaming facilities on the income and employment of american indians this paper provides two stage estimates of the economic impact of indian gaming on tribal members gaming increases income among tribal members in all areas and increases employment by reducing the number of out of the labor force in rural areas

consumer environmental concern and green product purchase in malaysia structural effects of consumption values this study examines the effects of consumption values i e functional value social value emotional value conditional value and epistemic value on malaysian consumers environmental concern as expressed in their purchase of green products it also investigates the differences between three usage groups light average and heavy users and the signi cant factors that promote those differences the study applies a quantitative method in which a structured self administered questionnaire is used data is analysed using the structural equation modelling sem technique via the analysis of moment structure amos computer programme version 21 and one way analysis of variance anova using the statistical package for social sciences spss computer programme version 21 empirical results confirm that social value has the paramount impact on consumers environmental concern as expressed by their purchase of green products and that epistemic value and functional value quality rank behind functional value price emotional value and conditional value have no significant effects statistically significant differences were observed when comparing the light users with average users and with heavy users p 0 05 the findings of this study introduce a new momentum for the preceding discoveries on consumer environmental concern as shown in the purchase of green products which is inadequately covered in the malaysian context they also provide important information for companies and encourage them to place more emphasis on social value epistemic value and functional value quality in their manufacturing in order both to boost environmental concern among consumers in their purchasing decision making and to produce green goods that will be readily liked by consumers

the indian gaming regulatory act and its effects on american indian economic development the indian gaming regulatory act igra passed by the us congress in 1988 was a watershed in the history of policymaking directed toward reservation resident american indians igra set the stage for tribal government owned gaming facilities it also shaped how this new industry would develop and how tribal governments would invest gaming revenues since then indian gaming has approached commercial state licensed gaming in total revenues gaming operations have had a far reaching and transformative effect on american indian reservations and their economies specifically indian gaming has allowed marked improvements in several important dimensions of reservation life for the first time some tribal governments have moved to fiscal independence native nations have invested gaming revenues in their economies and societies often with dramatic effect

the asset market model of the balance of payments and the exchange rate a survey of empirical evidence abstract the purpose of this survey is to assemble and evaluate empirical evidence on the asset market model of the balance of payments and the exchange rate in section i the distinctive features of asset market models are compared with earlier keynesian models particular attention is directed to the assumptions and predictions of the monetary model which is a special and well known case of more general asset market models and thereby serves as a useful benchmark for discussion in sections ii and iii the empirical evidence under fixed and flexible exchange rates is evaluated the paper is concluded in section iv with an assessment of our current state of knowledge

a reanalyis of marital stability in the seattle denver income maintenance experiment this paper challenges the widely cited finding of groeneveld hannan and tuma that the seattle denver income maintenance experiment provides evidence that guaranteed income plans for poor husband wife families will increase marital dissolution relative to the existing program aid to families with dependent children the reanalysis of the experimental data distinguishes between the experimental treatment in the form of the pure negative income tax and the treatment plans that involved an experimental training program all the time periods of the experiment are used with allowance for the timing of the marital dissolution in the inferences and with allowance for attrition the conclusion of this paper is that the plans specifically the negative income tax plans in the experiment had no effect on the rate of marital dissolutions among the treatment couples relative to the control couples

empirical tests of the monetary approach to exchange rate determination there has been much discussion as to whether or not the turbulence in foreign exchange rates that has existed since 1973 is consistent with an efficient foreign exchange market this empirical question can only be tested relative to an equilibrium exchange rate model in this paper we conduct variance tests and efficient markets tests of three different models of exchange rate determination the equilibrium rational expectations model ere the currency substitution model cs and dornbusch s exchange rate dynamics model erd we find that the uncertainty in realised exchange rate movements can only be explained by the erd model and that actual exchange rates could have been predicted in a manner that is inconsistent with the efficient markets hypothesis

the influence factors on choice behavior regarding green products based on the theory of consumption values abstract this study applies the theory of consumption values to determine the influence factors on consumer choice behavior regarding green products and examines whether there are significant differences in consumption values and choice behavior between consumers with different outlooks on environmental concerns one way analysis of variance and multiple regression is used to assess data collected by a questionnaire survey the results indicate that consumers with high environmental concern support green products more and show greater readiness to choose them this study concludes that the main influence factors on consumer choice behavior regarding green products include psychological benefit desire for knowledge novelty seeking and specific conditions and do not include functional values price and quality this study contributes to preliminary but vital insights in effective promotion of green products

a duopoly game with heterogeneous green supply chains in optimal price and market stability with consumer green preference abstract as environmental problems exponentially rising the necessity of environmental protection and green purchase behavior is addressed by the increasing consumers this paper aims to analyze the effects of consumer green preference on members optimal decisions and the speed of the adjustment of the optimal price strategies for heterogeneous green supply chains the results elaborate that consumer green preference significantly influences the product green level of the manufacturer and the supplier and has intricate effects on the speed of the adjustment of the boundedly rational supply chain which directly affects the social stability the vicious competition and the unbalance market are caused by the overreaction of the boundedly rational and naive supply chain to consumer green preference

the response of expenditures to anticipated income changes panel data estimates standard models of intertemporal allocation predict that the time path of expenditures should be independent of the time path of income recently two papers parker 1999 and souleles 1999 have suggested that u s households have a high marginal propensity to spend within year anticipated income changes we use an expenditure survey panel from spain to re examine this issue we exploit two important features of the spanish data first we have quarterly panel data that follows households for more than four quarters second we use the fact that workers are exogenously sorted into one of two payment schemes some receive the same amount each month of the year and others receive an extra payment in june and december the extra payment is large and predictable we examine the detailed pattern of expenditures over the year to see whether they differ between the two groups we fail to find even weak differences we complement this with a conventional euler equation analysis of excess sensitivity our predicting equation for quarterly earnings growth is much better than usual and is likely to give a powerful test of the hypothesis that predictable changes in income do not lead to changes in expenditure patterns the results of this analysis confirm the graphical analysis we find no evidence of excess sensitivity we conclude that households in normal times do smooth consumption over the year we suggest a reconciliation of our results with those of parker and souleles

bureaucrats and indians principal agent relations and efficient management of tribal forest resources abstract under pl 638 indian tribes can contract with the bureau of indian affairs to take over the management and marketing of tribal timber resources when indian principals replace bureau agents in these tasks both the quantity of timber harvested relative to potential and the price obtained increase tribes participation in the program is related both to their levels of economic development and the pecuniary gains available from improved incentives

is the sticky price assumption reasonable for exchange rate models abstract the testable implications of sticky price exchange rate models are discussed the empirical examples suggest that the predetermined or sticky price assumption employed in recent asset models of exchange rate determination appears to be appropriate for germany japan the united states and the united kingdom

the reaction of household consumption to predictable changes in social security taxes the key implication of rational expectations and the basic life cycle permanent income hypothesis that predictable changes in income have no effect on the growth rate of consumption expenditures is examined this implication is important for understanding the effectiveness and optimal timing of fiscal policy the causes and propagation of business cycles and the effects of income fluctuations on the growth rate of the economy using household level consumption data from the consumer expenditure survey whether expenditures on nondurable goods increase contemporaneously with predictable changes in social security tax withholding is tested it is found that households do change their consumption expenditures in response to the predictable fluctuations in income induced by the social security tax system

green products an exploratory study on the consumer behaviour in emerging economies of the east abstract the recent years have witnessed a phenomenal change in quantum and pattern of consumption in the developing nations of the east ever increasing consumption is putting a strain on the environment the present work delves into understanding the relationship between environmental concerns and consumer choice behaviour in purchasing green products in the context of india being a large emerging economy in south east asia attempt has been made to examine the influence of consumption values on sustainable consumer behaviour across consumer segments with preferential green choice approach difference multiple linear regression analysis one way analysis of variance and other standard statistical analysis of the data collected through questionnaire survey have been done results indicate that price sensitivity is high regardless of their choice preference social value parameter being the dominant factor influences sustainable consumption behaviour adoption among the green preferential cluster consumption values differ significantly across consumers exhibiting different preference for products with and without green credentials being higher for those with green purchase or consumption experience or notion

do consumers react to anticipated income changes evidence from the alaska permanent fund a central implication of the life cycle permanentincome hypothesis lc pih is that consumers should not respond to predictable changes in their income to test this hypothesis a number of recent papers have exploited natural experiments to identify anticipated income changes in particular recent work by parker 1999 uses the change in after tax income due to the cap on earnings subject to the social security tax and a related paper by souleles 1999 examines the response of consumption to income tax refunds surprisingly parker and souleles find that even when income is expected to change within the year expenditure is excessively sensitive to the timing of the income change while their results can be interpreted as evidence that our canonical model of consumption is inadequate an alternative explanation is that the anticipated income changes they exploit are small and irregular and that households will not bother to change their consumption paths when the computational costs involved are large relative to the utility gains in support of this interpretation browning and collado 2001 find that the seasonal consumption patterns of spanish households that work in sectors that provide regular bonus payments do not differ from those of households that do not receive bonus payments this paper adds to this evidence by exploiting a natural experiment provided by annual payments from the state of alaska s permanent fund to every resident in the state of alaska that should yield an unusually powerful test of the lc pih these payments are large and clearly anticipated by alaskan residents using the variation in the size of the payments over time and in the amount received by families of different sizes to identify the response of consumption to payments from the permanent fund i find no evidence that the consumption of alaskan households reacts to these payments in addition i find no evidence that the seasonal pattern of consumption in alaska differs from that in the other 49 states or that households in alaska are subject to fewer liquidity constraints engage in less buffer stock saving or spend a smaller fraction of their income on semidurable goods than households in the rest of the united states however although households in alaska do not overreact to payments from the permanent fund i find that the consumption of the very same households is excessively sensitive to their income tax refunds this evidence suggest that households will take anticipated income changes into account in their consumption decisions when the income changes are large regular and easy to predict but will not do so when they are small and irregular the paper proceeds as follows the next section of the paper presents details on the department of economics princeton university princeton nj 08544 and national bureau of economic research e mail chsieh princeton edu i am very grateful to the bureau of labor statistics bls for providing access to the data from the consumer expenditure survey and to its staff particularly steven henderson walter vandeheide and wolf weber for their generous assistance during my visits to the bls i also thank nanci jones for providing data and patiently answering questions on the operation of the alaska permanent fund anne case angus deaton jonathan parker and two referees provided useful comments the views expressed in this paper are personal and should not be attributed to the bls 1 i refer to the certainty equivalent version of the lc pih or one in which the expected variance of consumption is constant as is well known without these assumptions the lc pih only implies smoothing of marginal utility not necessarily of consumption 2 see christina h paxson 1992 john shea 1995 jonathan a parker 1999 nicholas s souleles 1999 martin browning and m dolores collado 2001 also see ronald a bodkin 1959 for an early example of the use of a natural experiment to test for excess sensitivity for comprehensive reviews of the large literature on empirical tests of the lc pih see angus deaton 1992 browning and annamaria lusardi 1996 and browning and thomas f crossley 2001 3 in 1998 for example the permanent fund paid 1 541 to every resident of the state of alaska

post bretton woods deviations from purchasing power parity in g7 exchange rates an empirical exploration abstract exchange rates have deviated substantially and idiosyncratically from purchasing power parity ppp since the breakdown of bretton woods in this paper a model incorporating both traditional ppp and financial market variables is constructed and tested on the us dollar s six g7 exchange rates during the floating rate era empirical tests show that the model s common set of variables with consistent signs can explain the divergent behavior of g7 exchange rates during 1973 2 90 2 idiosyncracies are reflected in different subsets of the model s variables entering significantly into each exchange rate s regression the existence of stable relationships is demonstrated by the equations co integration

beyond ecolabels what green marketing can learn from conventional marketing ecolabels have emerged as one of the main tools of green marketing although a great deal of effort has been invested in making them more effective and efficient the market share of ecolabelled products is still low partly because they have been addressed mainly to green consumers in a theoretical exposition of marketing theory we find that green marketing could learn from conventional marketing in discovering other means than labelling to promote green products examples include addressing a wider range of consumers working with the positioning strategies of price place and promotion and actively engaging in market creation

time varying parameters and the out of sample forecasting performance of structural exchange rate models varying parameter estimation techniques based on recursive application of the kalman filter are used to improve the predictive performance of a class of monetary exchange rate models i find that allowing estimated parameters to vary over time enhances the models forecasting performance for the dollar pound dollar mark and dollar yen exchange rates contrary to earlier results in the literature ex post forecasts for the dollar mark rate compare favorably with those obtained from the naive random walk forecasting rule

the canadian us dollar exchange rate a test of alternative models for the seventies abstract three basic models of bilateral exchange rate determination are evaluated on the basis of the canadian experience in the 1970s we examine wealth effects and incorporate consistent expectations in the traditional models based on reduced form equations empirical results reject a simple monetary approach and the stickly price asset market model but concur with a version of the stock flow model of exchange rate determination

leveraging factors for sustained green consumption behavior based on consumption value perceptions testing the structural model changing lifestyle and consumption pattern being the aftermath of growth and urbanization is putting a strain on environment and sustainable development the consumption value perceptions are identified in the study as the drivers of sustained green product consumption and intention to pay the green price premium using the theory of consumption values these value perceptions are certain parameters measuring consumer utilities along multiple value dimensions impacting choice behavior environmental attitude contextual factors and consumer innovativeness were included as the first order constructs data was collected through survey based method using structured questionnaires structural equation modeling was applied for testing the hypothesized model results confirmed consumers price and knowledge perceptions to be the major determinants of the behavioral outcome of sustained green consumption and behavioral intention to pay the green price premium is the outcome of sustained green consumption implications of the research were discussed

residential electricity consumption behavior influencing factors related theories and intervention strategies abstract the proportion of residential electricity consumption in the total energy consumption has increased rapidly in the past decades all over the world it is becoming increasingly important to promote household energy conservation for the sustainable development of a country in the case of resource constraints this paper reviews and evaluates the existing research works which are related to the residential electricity consumption behavior particular attention is given to the following aspects 1 factors influencing residential electricity consumption in social psychology 2 theories of social psychology in understanding residential electricity consumption behavior 3 different interventions aiming at encouraging households to reduce electricity consumption finally we discuss the challenges and opportunities of research on residential electricity consumption behavior in the big data era

resource rents redistribution and halving global poverty the resource dividend summary this paper considers the proposal that each country distributes its resource rents directly to citizens as a universal and unconditional cash transfer or resource dividend and estimates its potential impact on global poverty for the years 2000 06 using a global dataset on resource rents and the distribution of income i find that if every developing country implemented the policy then the number of people living below 1 a day would be cut by between 27 and 66 depending on the year and the assumptions made looking ahead poverty could be better than halved as long as commodity prices do not drop below their 2004 level

on empirical exchange rate models what does a rejection of the symmetry restriction on short run interest rates mean abstract the purpose of this paper is to interpret the well documented rejection of reduced form symmetry restrictions on short run interest rates and to show that such a rejection implies a rejection of rational expectations re and or uncovered interest rate parity uip the paper also shows that if this rejection is due to failure of uip it cannot be explained by the presence of a standard risk premium in order to provide for well specified alternatives the paper explores the reduced form implications of imperfect capital mobility and a recent alternative to re called the theories consistent expectations framework

ossified materialism introduction to the special volume on absolute reductions in materials throughput and emissions drawing from papers in this special volume sv this introductory paper on absolute reductions argues that the magnitude scope and urgency of the sustainability challenge require a drastic change in global civilisation including a radical transformation of the institutional arrangements and socio technical systems that facilitate the pursuit of wellbeing the authors of this paper identify four main challenges to absolute reductions including the resource intensive conventional template for development macroeconomic structures and trade policies creating burden shifting and inequality a resourceefficiency improvements fallacy and the dominant consumerist culture and lifestyles the paper demonstrates

the economics of casino gambling america s casino industry expanded rapidly in the 1990s spreading from nevada and atlantic city to mining towns riverboats race tracks and tribal lands and moving from isolated resort settings to urban and suburban venues this article examines economic characteristics of the casino industry including the evolution of major casino markets pricing of gaming products market structures regulatory constraints and social and economic impacts attributable to casinos when competitive casinos show strong economies of scale and scope but many new jurisdictions limit the number or size of operations thus creating substantial economic rents allocation of these rents are fundamentally politically determined

efficiency and a simple model of exchange rate determination abstract a monetary model has no intrinsic dynamics so the intertemporal behavior of exchange rates spot and forward depend entirely upon the time processes of the exogenous variables for typical values of interest elasticities of money demand only if all shocks are permanent do exchange rates follow random walks recently changes in relative outputs and money supplies in the canadian us context have evidenced serial correlation so that shocks are not exclusively permanent ones none the less exchange rates have followed a random walk this suggests that the monetary model is an inappropriate specification and that models which pay attention to the choice of currency of denomination deserve greater attention

where does economic development really come from constitutional rule among the contemporary sioux and apache governments are public goods that provide the organizational and legal structures by which societies arrange and enforce rules of the game that enable divisions of labor exchange and collective action we argue that shared pre constitutional cultural norms of political legitimacy among rational individuals provide the foundations of effective self government the performance of contemporary apache and sioux economies on indian reservations governed by common federally imposed constitutions is examined to test the framework unlike the impoverished sioux the relatively successful apaches are found to have pre existing political norms that serendipidously match the structure of their formal constitution

the monetary approach to the exchange rate revisited 1984 the monetary approach to the exchange rate revisited applied economics vol 16 no 5 pp 771 782

the power of emotional value exploring the effects of values on green product consumer choice behavior using the theory of consumption values this research proposes to explore the consumer choice behavior for green products in pakistan functional value price and quality social value conditional value epistemic value and emotional value and environmental value were used to study the consumer choice behavior for green products it also gauges the extent to which emotional value moderates the impact of other consumption values on green product consumer choice behavior based on a sample of 260 respondents the results indicate that functional value price social value and environmental value have a positive impact on green product consumer choice behavior while conditional value and epistemic value have a negative effect functional value quality and emotional value do not influence green product consumer choice behavior as a moderator emotional value has a significant effect on the role of functional value social value conditional value epistemic value and environmental value this confirms and significantly adds to the literature of green product consumer choice behavior in a developing market

the response of household consumption to income tax refunds a central implication of the life cycle or permanent income theory is that consumption should not respond to predictable fluctuations in income tests of this implication have yielded mixed results especially on micro data angus deaton 1992 martin browning and annamaria lusardi 1996 in large part this might be due to the difficulties of isolating the predictable component of income at the micro level most tests proceed by instrumenting for income but since the available instruments are typically poor such tests might be prejudiced against finding significant excess sensitivity of consumption to income john shea 1995 also it is not clear how closely the resulting econometric predictions of income coincide with agents actual expectations of income to avoid these difficulties this paper examines the response of household consumption to a particular type of income that is both predictable and transitory income tax refunds since a refund depends on events in the previous calendar year it is predictable income as regards consumption in the year of its receipt consequently under the life cycle theory consumption should not increase on receipt of a refund 2 in addition to testing the canonical model of consumption this paper provides estimates interpretable as the marginal propensity to consume mpc out of refunds since federal tax refunds now amount to over 80 billion per year averaging well over 1 000 per refund these estimates are of interest in themselves more generally they bear on the impact of even preannounced and temporary changes in fiscal policy the paper begins by surveying related studies in section i section ii describes the data the consumer expenditure survey cex which of the leading u s micro data sets has the most comprehensive coverage of expenditure the empirical specification is set out in section hi section iv reports the results and section v concludes

floating exchange rates expectations and new information abstract this paper analyzes the relationship between forward exchange rates future spot rates and new information a stochastic model of exchange rate determination is used to formally show how unanticipated changes in the exchange rate determinants or news affect the spot rate the empirical analysis indicates that new information plays an important role in explaining the market forecasting error or difference between the spot rate and the forward rate determined in the previous period

conditional cash transfers adult work incentives and poverty conditional cash transfer cct programs aim to alleviate poverty through monetary and in kind benefits as well as reduce future levels of poverty by encouraging investments in education health and nutrition the success of cct programs at reducing poverty depends on whether and the extent to which cash transfers affect adult work incentives the authors examine whether the progresa program of mexico affects adult participation in the labor market and overall adult leisure time and they link these effects to the impact of the program on poverty using the experimental design of progresa s evaluation sample the authors find that the program does not have any significant effect on adult labor force participation and leisure time their findings on adult work incentives are reinforced further by the result that progresa leads to a substantial reduction in poverty the poverty reduction effects are stronger for the poverty gap and severity of poverty measures

the out of sample forecasting performance of exchange rate models when coefficients are allowed to change abstract this study examines the out of sample forecasting performance of models of exchange rate determination without imposing the restriction that coefficients are fixed over time both fixed and variable coefficient versions of conventional structural models are considered with and without a lagged dependent variable while our results on fixed coefficient models support most of the meese and rogoff conclusions we find that when coefficients are allowed to change an important subset of conventional models of the dollar pound the dollar deutsche mark and the dollar yen exchange rates can outperform forecasts of a random walk model the structural models considered are the flexible price frenkel bilson and sticky price dornbusch frankel monetary models and a sticky price model which includes the current account hooper morton

the performance of exchange rate forecasting models an economic evaluation theoretical models of exchange rate determination have not proven useful as accurate predictors of movements in exchange rates however these conclusions are the result of evaluation on the basis of statistical criteria of performance implicitly assuming such criteria are optimal in the subsequent economic decision framework this assumption is suspect though because statistical criteria do not account for market timing is applied in this study to four forecasting models of both the canadian dollar us dollar and the west german mark us dollar exchange rates over the period 1976 11 1984 8 of these models only the unconstrained static and dynamic forecasting models exhibited significant markete timing value with respect to the canadian dollar and then only over a one month time horizon the constrained dynamic model had market timing abillity at the three month time horizon under decision rule i with respect to the west german mark the constrained static forecasting model showed market timing abilit

resource rents universal basic income and poverty among alaska s indigenous peoples abstract the alaska permanent fund dividend pfd program provides universal basic income ubi to all residents from investment earnings of a state sovereign wealth fund created from oil rents this paper evaluates the effect of the pfd to mitigate poverty among the state s rural indigenous alaska native peoples a population with historically high poverty rates living in a region with limited economic opportunities errors in recording pfd income in data used to calculate official poverty statistics cause them to misrepresent poverty in alaska and understate the effect of the pfd estimating poverty rates with and without pfd income therefore requires reconstruction of family incomes from household level data estimated poverty rates from reconstructed income show that the pfd has had a substantial although diminishing mitigating effect on poverty for rural indigenous families the pfd has had a larger effect on poverty among children and elders than for the rural alaska native population as a whole alaska native seniors who receive additional sources of ubi derived primarily from resource rents besides the pfd have seen a decline in poverty rates while poverty rates for children have increased evidence has not appeared for commonly hypothesized potential adverse social and economic consequences of ubi

the impact of the social cash transfer scheme on food security in malawi abstract the malawi social cash transfer scheme scts was launched in 2006 to improve food security by directly providing cash transfers to the country s most destitute households although government implemented cash transfer schemes have gained popularity throughout latin america these schemes are just emerging in africa while where there is evidence of the beneficial impact of cash transfers on food security from latin american countries there is a dearth of evidence from resource poor countries in africa in order to fill this gap we conducted a longitudinal randomized community control study of the pilot scts in mchinji malawi from march 2007 to april 2008 in this study we describe the impact of approximately us 14 per month on food security among recipient households compared to control households using indicators of food consumption and expenditures and dietary diversity we present compelling evidence whereby each of the tested outcomes yields large effect sizes that are highly statistically significant demonstrating a sizeable impact of cash transfers on food security and food diversity in rural malawi the scts appears to be an effective tool within the national social welfare policy for improving food security in the country s destitute households