consumer debt stress changes in household debt and the great recession this research examines psychological debt stress and changes in household debt holdings for consumers during the great recession using data from a monthly national u s household survey covering the period 2006 through 2012 debt stress measures in the population rose by over 50 at the bottom of the recession determining relative stress for eight different types of household debt we find that noncollateralized debts are more stressful than collateralized debt and that during the recession the composition of debt shifted away from collateralized debt and toward noncollateralized our empirical results show that women and hispanics experienced higher measured levels of stress jel d12 d18 i introduction in the latter part of the twentieth century household debt began to rise to high levels in the united states accompanying this there was an upsurge in reports concerning psychological debt stress coming from financial and family counselors health care professionals employers and others these reports pointed to a wide range of health family and job problems for americans arising from this increase in debt after 2007 events in the housing market marked the onset of the great recession and financial crisis many households faced declining home prices and foreclosure as well as changes in other asset values and incomes there was a general tightening of credit and changes in some lending practices by banks here we seek to add additional understanding to changes in consumer debt stress 1 during the great recession by relating them to changes in eight different types of debt holdings during this period we use data covering 2006 through 2012 from the consumer finance monthly survey cfm a national random telephone survey of household finances taken on a monthly basis from a cross

bank loan portfolios and the monetary transmission mechanism abstract we study the portfolio behavior of bank loans following a monetary tightening and find that real estate and consumer loans sharply decrease while commercial and industrial c i loans increase these responses are compared with responses following non monetary shocks which also reduce output but keep interest rates roughly unchanged during such a non monetary downturn c i loans sharply decrease while real estate and consumer loans show no substantial response these responses together with the responses of relevant lending rates are hard to reconcile with a decline in the supply of c i bank loans during a monetary downturn as stressed by the bank lending channel several arguments are presented explaining why the supply of c i loans may actually increase after a monetary contraction

value function approximation in the presence of uncertainty and inequality constraints an application to the demand for credit cards abstract we present an algorithm for approximating the solution to discrete time stochastic dynamic programs with inequality constraints the algorithm exploits the state preference approach to choice under uncertainty to reduce the dimensionality of the state space and polynomial approximation to improve computational efficiency it is particularly useful in financial applications involving liquidity and credit constraints and more than one asset the algorithm provides information about the derivatives of the value function and therefore risk aversion along with asset demands

incrementality of sme loan guarantees in many countries loan guarantee programs are important elements of government policy with respect to small and medium sized enterprises smes if loan guarantee schemes are to be effective a majority of firms obtaining assistance through such a scheme ought not to be able to obtain financing from existing sources a property known as incrementality or additionality this paper describes a new approach to measuring incrementality this work uses a two stage process to estimate the incrementality of loans made under the terms of the canada small business financing csbf program first a logistic regression based model of loan outcomes essentially a credit scoring model is estimated based on a large representative sample of smes the resulting model was consistent with prior expectations and exhibited high levels of goodness of fit the model was then employed to classify a sample of firms that had received loans under the terms of the loan guarantee scheme incremental loans ought to be classified as turndowns by the model hence the proportion of loan guarantee recipients that the model classified as turndowns is a direct measure of incrementality for the csbf loan guarantee program incrementality was estimated with 95 confidence as 74 8 9 0

consumer rationality and credit cards borrowing on credit cards at high interest rates might appear irrational however even low transactions costs can make credit cards attractive relative to bank loans credit cards also provide liquidity services by allowing consumers to avoid some of the opportunity costs of holding money the effect of alternative interest rates on the demand for card debits can explain why credit card interest rates only partially reflect changes in the cost of funds credit card interest rates that are inflexible relative to the cost of funds are not inconsistent with a competitive equilibrium that yields zero profits for the marginal entrant

modeling credit card borrowing a comparison of type i and type ii tobit approaches this study focuses on credit cards as a borrowing medium using 1998 survey of consumer finance data the type ii tobit approach used here overcomes a shortcoming of the conventional type i tobit model which restricts the coefficients of the binary borrowing decision the first step and balance level decision the second step to have the same sign by separately estimating the first and second steps as reduced form functions in which the overall effects of supply and demand are incorporated the type ii tobit procedure yields more consistent results with other studies and quantifies the marginal effect elasticity of a particular determinant for practical uses more than 11 000 bank and nonbank holding companies issued credit cards in 1997 among these firms the top 50 issuers market share is 90 4 and the 10 largest credit card issuers hold 57 3 of total outstanding balances bank holding company revenue from interest on outstanding balances is 57 5 billion which is 77 8 of the total revenue of 73 9 billion moreover about 80 of 102 million u s households own at least one credit card demand for credit cards consists of two components one being the demand as a transaction medium and the other being the demand as a borrowing medium over 68 of bank type credit card holders use their credit cards only as a transaction medium 1 which means that they pay off their balances in full each month cargill and wendel 1996 however other credit card holders use their cards as a source of short term lowamount borrowing or as an instrument for consumption smoothing this study focuses on credit cards as a borrowing medium total household debts have been investigated in other studies relating household debt levels to credit or liquidity constraints using a two step selection approach duca and rosenthal 1993 examine the extent to which borrowing constraints restrict household access to debt and the manner in which lenders vary debt limits across borrowers crook 2001 investigates the determinants of credit constraints and the factors in the amount of household debt with a multistage model however it is necessary to separate the credit card debt from other household debts in the sense that every credit card user could borrow without incurring a transaction cost brito and hartley 1995 provide a theoretical model in which the equilibrium interest rate can be very high and inflexible under the

early starters versus late beginners we consider a model of wage formation characterized by two features learning and downward rigidity we show that wages should exhibit a late beginning property when one controls for the wage at date t the wage at date t 1 should be negatively correlated with the wage at date 6 1 we test this property on a sample of about 1 000 executives of a french state owned firm whose careers we observe for 15 years this organization exhibits the features that charecterize internal labor markets in particular careers consist of sequences of discrete promotions a fact that generates specific econometric problems the results confirm the prediction

costly monitoring financial intermediation and equilibrium credit rationing abstract this paper establishes a link between equilibrium credit rationing and financial intermediation in a model with asymmetrically informed lenders and borrowers costly monitoring and investment project indivisibilities intermediation is shown to dominate borrowing and lending between individuals and these financial intermediaries exhibit several of the important features of intermediaries as we know them equilibrium interest rates and the aggregate quantity of loans respond quite differently to changes in taste and technology parameters depending on whether or not there is rationing in equilibrium

do consumers need more protection from small dollar lenders historical evidence and a roadmap for future research we summarize the current debate surrounding four small dollar credit products pawn loans vehicle title loans payday loans and cash installment loans from finance companies we review the contributions of scholars that inform this debate we underscore that users of these products fit the description of those whom consumer credit models predict benefit from these products many studies find that on average consumer use of small dollar credit products is at worst innocuous there are however findings of heterogeneity in borrowers experiences the disagreements surrounding these credit products and the difficulty in crafting the proper policy response stems from this heterogeneity jel d18 g23

what s different about banks abstract negotiable certificates of deposit cd s trade in the capital market in competition with other securities like commercial paper and bankers acceptances if cd s must pay lenders competitive monetary interest the reserve tax on cd s is borne by bank borrowers viability of the tax means there must be something special about bank loans that makes some borrowers willing to pay higher interest rates than those on other securities of equivalent risk moreover there must be something special about banks that prevents other intermediaries from competing to assure that it never pays to finance loans with cd s

consumer search behavior in the changing credit card market this article investigates whether search costs inhibit consumers from searching for lower credit card interest rates the results provide evidence that the credit card search environment has changed since the mid 1990s using the 2001 survey of consumer finances we model consumers propensity to search and their probability of being denied credit simultaneously and find that larger credit card balances induce cardholders to search more even though they face a higher probability of rejection this result may be related to the high volume of direct solicitation combined with disclosure requirements which has lowered the cost of search to find lower interest rates

a theory of wage dynamics a dynamic equilibrium model of long term implicit labour contracts under incomplete but symmetric information is developed workers are assumed to be risk averse and of unknown ability or productivity risk neutral firms learn as do workers about each worker s productivity by observing the worker s output over time it is shown that equilibrium contracts provide for wages which never decline with age and increase only when the worker s market value increases above his current wage in addition to characterizing the equilibrium wage contract we also derive some of its implications for the behaviour of aggregate wages across various groups of workers these implications explain some findings in the recent empirical literature on ageearnings profiles in particular our model can explain why earnings may be positively related to experience even after controlling for productivity as some empirical studies have indicated

managerial task assignment and promotions a two period model of managerial task assignment is developed where the current employer has the advantage of observing the actual performanc e of the manager while outside employers can observe only the assign ments optimal contracts are rigid but the market value of managers is below actual productivity and they are promoted less than is effic ient the author introduces the idea of managers explo iting their information to separate themselves out in the market plac e as a consequence the model has the appealing property of small ab ility based wage differentials within a task as well as large ones b etween tasks copyright 1988 by the econometric society

the democratization of credit and the rise in consumer bankruptcies financial innovations are a common explanation for the rise in credit card debt and bankruptcies to evaluate this story we develop a simple model that incorporates two key frictions asymmetric information about borrowers risk of default and a fixed cost of developing each contract lenders offer innovations that ameliorate asymmetric information or reduce this fixed cost have large extensive margin effects via the entry of new lending contracts targeted at riskier borrowers this results in more defaults and borrowing and increased dispersion of interest rates using the survey of consumer finances and federal reserve board interest rate data we find evidence supporting these predictions specifically the dispersion of credit card interest rates nearly tripled while the new cardholders of the late 1980s and 1990s had riskier observable characteristics than existing cardholders our calculation suggest these new cardholders accounted for over 25 of the rise in bank credit card debt and delinquencies between 1989 and 1998

micro finance competition motivated micro lenders double dipping and default abstract we develop a tractable model of competition among socially motivated mfis so that the objective functions of the mfis put some weight on their own clients utility we find that the equilibrium involves double dipping i e borrowers taking multiple loans from different mfis whenever the mfis are relatively profit oriented further double dipping necessarily leads to default and inefficiency and moreover borrowers who face relatively higher transactions costs optimally decide to double dip interestingly an increase in mfi competition can increase the extent of double dipping and default further the interest rates may go either way with the interest rate likely to increase with more competition if the mfis are very socially motivated

borrowing during unemployment unsecured debt as a safety net this paper examines whether unsecured credit markets help disadvantaged households supplement temporary shortfalls in earnings by investigating how unsecured debt responds to unemployment induced earnings losses results indicate that very low asset households those in the bottom decile of total assets do not borrow in response to these shortfalls however other low asset households do borrow increasing unsecured debt by more than 11 cents per dollar of earnings lost in contrast wealthy households do not increase unsecured debt during unemployment the evidence suggests that very low asset households do not have sufficient access to unsecured credit to smooth consumption over transitory unemployment spells

job assignments signalling and efficiency this article analyzes a model in which information about a worker s ability is only directly revealed to the firm employing the worker other firms however use the worker s job assignment as a signal of ability three results recur throughout the analysis first wage rates tend to be more closely associated with jobs than with ability levels second there is frequently an inefficient assignment of workers to jobs i e even when a firm has complete information about a worker s output third the severity of this inefficiency tends to be negatively correlated with the level of firm specific human capital in the economy

optimal fiscal and monetary policy in an economy without capital abstract this paper is concerned with the structure and time consistency of optimal fiscal and monetary policy in an economy without capital in a dynamic context optimal taxation means distributing tax distortions over time in a welfare maximizing way for a barter economy our main finding is that with debt commitments of sufficiently rich maturity structure an optimal policy if one exists is time consistent in a monetary economy the idea of optimal taxation must be broadened to include an inflation tax and we find that time consistency does not carry over an optimal inflation tax requires commitment by rules in a sense that has no counterpart in the dynamic theory of ordinary excise taxes the reason time consistency fails in a monetary economy is that nominal assets should from a welfare maximizing point of view always be taxed away via an immediate inflation in a kind of capital levy this emerges as a new possibility when money is introduced into an economy without capital

financial intermediation and delegated monitoring this paper develops a theory of financial intermediation based on minimizing the cost of monitoring information which is useful for resolving incentive problems between borrowers and lenders it presents a characterization of the costs of providing incentives for delegated monitoring by a financial intermediary diversification within an intermediary serves to reduce these costs even in a risk neutral economy the paper presents some more general analysis of the effect of diversification on resolving incentive problems in the environment assumed in the model debt contracts with costly bankruptcy are shown to be optimal the analysis has implications for the portfolio structure and capital structure of intermediaries

short term contracts and long term agency relationships abstract long term contracts are valuable only if optimal contracting requires commitment to a plan today that would not otherwise be adopted tomorrow we show that commitments are unnecessary and hence short term contracts are sufficient if 1 all public information can be used in contracting 2 the agent can acess a bank on equal terms with the principal 3 recontracting takes place with common knowledge about technology and preferences and 4 the frontier of expected utility payoffs generated by the set of incentive compatible contracts is downward sloping at all times

bank competition and consumer search over credit card interest rates this article models bank competition facing consumers with different search incentivesandfindsthatconsumerswithhighercreditcardbalanceshavelowerinterestrates giventheirriskclassduetotheirgreatersearcheffort italsofindsthatadefaulthistory leads to higher interest rates the equilibrium interest rate corresponding to risk type and motive borrowing versus convenience transactions is derived theoretically and the determinants of the interest rate are estimated using an original data set endogeneity of default is handled with a two equation system jel d14 d12 d11 this study analyzes market outcomes in the credit card industry when credit card banks ccbs compete with interest rates and cardholders have different motives for using credit cards the study takes account of the role of consumer motivation in a way that has not been captured by previous work in our model consumers react differently to interest rate offers depending on their motive for using credit cards i e borrowing versus conve

competition in loan contracts we present a model of an unsecured loan market many lenders simultaneously offer loan contracts a debt level and an interest rate to a borrower the borrower may accept more than one contract her payoff if she defaults increases in the total amount borrowed if this payoff is high enough deterministic zero profit equilibria cannot be sustained lenders earn a positive profit and may even charge the monopoly price the positive profit equilibria are robust to increases in the number of lenders despite the absence of asymmetric information the competitive outcome does not obtain in the limit

money and interest in a cash in advance economy the authors analyze an aggregative general equilibrium model in which the use of money is motivated by a cash in advance constraint applied to purchases of a subset of consumption goods the system is subject to both real and monetary shocks which are economy wide and observed by all they develop methods for verifying the existence of characterizing and explicitly calculating equilibria copyright 1987 by the econometric society

the demand for credit cards evidence from the survey of consumer finances i introduction the credit card market has expanded rapidly over the past 20 years in 1983 65 of households held at least one card by 1998 about 74 did so the size of real balances on these cards more than tripled in this period analysts have proposed a number of explanations for the increase but untangling the main causes is complicated by the unique nature of the credit card financial product an individual who obtains a credit card has obtained the right to borrow a certain amount called the limit with no questions asked under predetermined payback rules thus credit cards involve both assets and liabilities the available limits are best thought of as assets which can be used by a consumer to hedge against future income shortfalls or just to facilitate paying for goods and thereby reducing the need to carry cash the asset and limit components of credit cards makes them similar to financial instruments for example the asset component is essentially an option a subject that has been studied extensively in the corporate finance literature the seminal work is black and scholes 1973 who developed a method for valuing an option washam and davis 1998 extend this method to the problem of valuing the liquidity of credit resources this body of literature suggests that for some people a credit card can be viewed as a source of liquid funds for business purposes moreover once a credit card is used it becomes a debt liability in effect these are loans that the user has taken on to cover an income shortfall or simply to make a purchase for which borrowing makes sense again a corporate equivalent would be line of credit borrowing see myers 1989 or miller et al 1998 for an introduction these similarities raise the question of what sort of sample one should analyze for a study of consumer use of credit cards in all likelihood many average consumers who use credit cards are actually business entrepreneurs who use the cards to finance small business considering that wealth is an important element of any study of credit cards one faces the further problem that small business wealth is hard to measure accurately some research lindh and ohlsson 1998 suggests that access to liquid credit such as credit cards can make the difference between becoming self employed or not dunn and holtz eakin 2000 argue that family financial capital can ease the transition to self employment although they do not discuss credit availability in their study their results are strong evidence that credit cards would also ease that transition other studies that focus on the role of liquid credit and entrepreneurial activity include meyer 1990 blanchflower and oswald 1998 cox and japelli 1990 and evans and jovanovich 1989 our focus here is not on the use of credit cards as a business financing tool however it is apparent from this literature that business finance certainly plays a powerful role in determining the use of credit cards by some owners the research suggests that entrepreneurs would be more likely to be using credit cards for financing business rather than for consumer purposes for this reason it is important to separate the self employed from the non self employed in our sample looking specifically at consumers the unusual nature of the credit card financial product raises interesting questions for empirical researchers who hope as we do to provide some estimates of the responsiveness of the credit card demand to standard price and income effects the object of this article is to raise these questions and then answer some of them estimating regression models using data from the survey of consumer finances scf specifically we make two empirical approaches first we model credit card demand as a two stage process with a consumer obtaining limits in the first stage and then borrowing some fraction of those limits in the second

credit card debt and consumption evidence from household level data this research investigates the relationship between credit card debt and consumption using household level data this is a departure from the previous studies which have used aggregate measures of consumption and general debt such as the debt service ratio or total revolving credit we use a detailed monthly survey of credit card use to impute credit card debt to respondents from the consumer expenditure survey sample in contrast to some earlier studies using aggregate data we find a negative relationship between debt and consumption growth our work shows that a 1000 increase in credit card debt results in a decrease in quarterly consumption growth of almost 2 investigations are also made into effects of debt within different age categories and into the impact of expected income growth on the debt consumption relationship

the liquidity services of money this paper investigates the liquidity services provided by cash interest bearing check balances and securities which pay higher interest than checks securities must be traded before con sumers know their desired level or composition of consumption cash a nd checks are more liquid since they are available on demand cas h is more liquid than checks since it is more widely useable as a medium of exchange cash will often be used to buy goods which could be bought by check and the demand for cash will be less sensitive t han the demand for checks to the interest paid on check balances copyright 1988 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association