the effective tax rate and the pretax rate of return abstract this paper presents new estimates of the taxes paid on nonfinancial corporate capital on the pretax rate of return to capital and on the effective tax rate the basic time series show that both the pretax rate of return and the effective tax rate have varied substantially in the past quarter century an explicit analysis indicates that after adjusting for different aspects of the business cycle pretax profitability was between one and 1 5 percentage points lower in the 1970s than in the 1960s the rate of profitability in the 1960s was also about one half of a percentage point greater than the profitability in the 7 years of the 1950s after the korean war changes in productivity growth in inflation in relative unit labor costs and in other variables are all associated with changes in profitability none of these variables however can explain the differences in profitability between the 1950s 1960s and 1970s looking at broad decade averages the effective tax rate and the pretax rate of return move in opposite directions lower pretax profits occuring when the tax rate is high there thus appears to have been no tendency for pretax profits to vary in a way that offsets differences in effective tax rates

evidence of nonlinearity in daily stock returns this article applies a newly developed statistical technique to time series of daily rates of return of 15 common stocks the technique involves estimating the bispectrum of the observed time series the bispectrum is defined as the double fourier transform of the third order cumulant function if the process generating rates of return is linear with independent innovations then the skewness of the bispectrum will be constant the article describes a test that can detect nonconstant skewness in the bispectrum hence if the test rejects constant skewness a nonlinear process is implied as a consequence the test can distinguish between white noise and purely random noise the results suggest that daily stock returns are generated by a nonlinear process

breakthrough china s and india s transition from production to innovation summary china and india have become major producers of products and services for global markets this article explores to what extent they are also building up innovation capabilities it draws on a combination of approaches innovation systems global value chains and professional networks to analyze four of the most dynamic industries we find that mounting innovation efforts only rarely materialized in cutting edge innovations but suggest that if capital accumulation proceeds at the current pace innovation capabilities will rapidly be built up in china and with a time lag india we conclude by setting out the implications for both the developed and the developing world

expenditure taxes income taxes and time inconsistency abstract traditional welfare based comparisons of different tax structures implicitly assume that the government can precommit to its future optimal policy when optimal tax rates are time inconsistent however such comparisons may be misleading this paper uses a two period representative consumer optimal taxation model to study the implications of time consistency for the welfare rankings of expenditure and income taxation i show that the welfare rankings of optimal policies may not be preserved by time consistent ones

models of stock returns a comparison in this paper a discrete mixture of normal distributions is proposed to explain the observed significant kurtosis fat tails and significant positive skewness in the distribution of daily rates of returns for a sample of common stocks and indexes stationarity tests on the parameter estimates of this discrete mixture of normal distributions model revealed significant differences in the mean estimates that can explain the observed skewness and significant differences in the variance estimates that can explain the observed kurtosis an alternative explanation for the observed fat tails is the symmetric student model the result of a comparison between the models is that the discrete mixture of normal distributions model has substantially more descriptive validity than the student model for many years both financial economists and statisticians have been concerned with the description of stock market returns the form of the distribution of stock returns is a crucial assumption for mean variance portfolio theory theoretical models of capital asset prices and the prices of contingent claims for example understanding the behavior of the variance is essential to option pricing models empirical tests of asset pricing models and the efficient markets hypothesis draw statistical inferences that are also conditional on distributional assumptions the most convenient assumption for financial theory and empirical methods is that the distribution of security rates of return be multivariate normal with parameters that are stationary over time since the normal distribution is stable under addition any arbitrary portfolio of stocks will also be normally distributed with the additional assumption of risk aversion mean variance theory follows furthermore the assumptions of normality and parameter stationarity are required for most of the econometric techniques typically used in empirical research tests of the normality hypothesis on the daily returns of the dow jones industrial stocks by fama 121 revealed more kurtosis fatter tails than that predicted from a sample of independent and identically distributed normal variates fama concluded from this evidence that the distribution of price changes conforms better to the stable paretian distribution with characteristic exponent

price movements and price discovery in futures and cash markets r isk transfer and price discovery are two of the major contributions of futures markets to the organization of economic activity working 1962 evans 1978 p 80 and silber 1981 risk transfer refers to hedgers using futures contracts to shift price risk to others price discovery refers to the use of futures prices for pricing cash market transactions working 1948 wiese 1978 p 87 and lake 1978 p 161 the significance of both contributions depends upon a close relationship between the prices of futures contracts and cash commodities this paper examines the characteristics of price movements in cash or spot markets and futures markets for storable commodities section ii presents an analytical model of simultaneous price dynamics which suggests that over short intervals of time the correlation of price changes is a function of the elasticity of arbitrage between the physical commodity and its counterpart futures contract greater elasticity fosters more highly correlated price changes and thereby facilitates the risk transfer function the elasticity of supply of arbitrage services is constrained by among other things storage and transaction costs thus futures contracts will not in general provide perfect risk transfer facilities over short time horizons the essence of the price discovery function of futures markets hinges on whether new information is reflected first in changed futures prices or in changed cash prices hoffman 1932 pp 258259 the model in section ii provides a framework for analyzing whether one market is dominant in terms of information flows and price discovery in section iii we develop a model based on section ii which is appropriate for estimating the lead lag relationship between cash prices and futures prices section iv presents empirical estimates of the parameters of the model for seven different storable commodities wheat corn oats frozen orange juice concentrates copper gold and silver the cost of arbitrage between cash and futures differs across these commodities for this reason we are not surprised to find inter commodity differences in the correlation of short run price changes and in the substitutability of futures contracts for cash market positions with respect to the price discovery function of futures markets we find that while futures markets dominate cash markets cash prices do not merely echo futures prices there are reverse information flows from cash markets to futures markets as well

european union developing country ftas overview and analysis this paper explores the complex structures of recent free trade agreements ftas between the european union and developing countries surveys the main factors determining their economic effects and presents quantitative simulations of the effects of these agreements limitations of product coverage substantially reduce the potential benefits of the agreements compared to full bilateral free trade while only the mexico chile and turkey agreements have trade related commitments which are wider and deeper than the preferential reduction in tariffs in the case of egypt existing levels of protection mean that it is moving toward regional free trade with many domestic distortions still in place producing a significant loss for the egyptian economy

normal mixture diffusion with uncertain volatility modelling short and long term smile effects this paper introduces a parameterization of the normal mixture diffusion nmd local volatility model that captures only a short term smile effect and then extends the model so that it also captures a long term smile effect we focus on the binomial nmd parameterization so called because it is based on simple and intuitive assumptions that imply the mixing law for the normal mixture log price density is binomial with more than two possible states for volatility the general parameterization is related to the multinomial mixing law in this parsimonious class of complete market models option pricing and hedging is straightforward since model prices and deltas are simple weighted averages of black scholes prices and deltas but they only capture a short term smile effect where leptokurtosis in the log price density decreases with term in accordance with the stylised facts of econometric analysis on ex post returns of different frequencies and the central limit theorem however the last part of the paper shows that longer term smile effects that arise from uncertainty in the local volatility surface can be modeled by a natural extension of the binomial nmd parameterization results are illustrated by calibrating the model to several euro us dollar currency option smile surfaces

the statistical properties of daily foreign exchange rates 1974 1983 abstract this paper examines the statistical properties of daily rates of change of five foreign currencies from 1974 to 1983 the main purpose is to discriminate between two competing explanations for the observed heavy tails of the distribution that the data are independently drawn from a heavy tail distribution which remains fixed over time and that the data come from distributions which vary over time evidence point to the rejection of the first hypothesis further investigations show that the rejection can be attributed to changing means and variances in the data which can be described by a simple statistical model

patterns of internationalisation of corporate technology location vs home country advantages given the trends towards increasing globalisation of markets and of production the globalisation of technology remains a subject of considerable interest to analysts and policy makers in the 1990s this paper provides some new empirical observations for debate and discussion on the patterns of technological activities of large firms outside their home countries it is based on a systematic analysis of the us patenting activities of 220 of the most internationalised firms in terms of their technology in the 1990s although firms are active outside their home countries in the high technology fields such as computers pharmaceuticals telecommunications image and sound and materials quite a sizeable proportion of their foreign activities are concerned with process and machinery technologies moreover a comparison of the technological advantage of the company at home and the advantage of the location shows that in a large majority of cases firms tend to locate their technology abroad in their core areas where they are strong at home these results suggest that adapting products and processes and materials to suit foreign markets and providing technical support to off shore manufacturing plants remain major factors underlying the internationalisation of technology they are also consistent with the notion that firms are increasingly engaging in small scale activities to monitor and scan new technological developments in centres of excellence in foreign countries within their areas of existing strength however there is little evidence to suggest that even these most internationalised firms routinely go abroad to compensate for their weakness at home

r d support programs in developing countries the turkish experience in this study the determinants of private r d investment are examined at the level of firms in the turkish manufacturing industry we focus our attention on the effect of public r d support programs our findings indicate that public r d support significantly and positively affects private r d investment there seems to be even an acceleration effect on firm financed r d expenditures smaller r d performers benefit more from r d support and perform more r d in addition technology transfer from abroad and domestic r d activity show up as complementary processes given the scarcity of studies on r d support in technologically weaker economies our hope is that the less developed countries can exploit these findings in constructing socially beneficial technology policies

human capital and fdi inflows to developing countries new empirical evidence abstract despite the dramatic increase in total foreign direct investment fdi flows to developing countries in the last few years the bulk of the inflows has been directed to only a limited number of countries it has been argued that developing countries might enhance their attractiveness as locations for fdi by pursuing policies that raise the level of local skills and build up human resource capabilities nevertheless the empirical evidence in the literature in support of this recommendation for a large sample of developing countries is scant this paper evaluates this argument in the light of the evolution in the structural characteristics of fdi and empirically tests the hypothesis that the level of human capital in host countries may affect the geographical distribution of fdi the empirical findings are a human capital is a statistically significant determinant of fdi inflows b human capital is one of the most important determinants and c its importance has become increasingly greater through time

intellectual property protection market orientation and location of overseas r d activities by multinational enterprises abstract this paper develops an analytical framework to explain the determinants of location of overseas research and development r d by multinational enterprises mnes in terms of the nature and extent of foreign direct investment fdi and host country resources and policy regimes empirical findings for us mnes suggest that mnes prefer to locate their r d activities in countries that are able to offer them among other things larger markets technological resources and infrastructure host market oriented affiliates are more likely to have r d units than the export oriented ones especially in developing countries the relative strength of the patent regime appears to affect the direction rather than the magnitude of r d investments made in a country

the statistical distribution of exchange rates empirical evidence and economic implications the abundant evidence that changes in exchange rates have distributions with fatter tails than the normal distribution has led researchers to consider non normal distributions including the student the stable paretian and mixtures of distributions this paper compares the empirical fits of three non normal candidates and the normal distribution for daily changes in the logarithms of exchange rates using maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters and chi square goodness of fit tests the student and mixture of two normals provide the best fits but there is evidence that the distribution parameters may vary over time

sensitivity of the bank stock returns distribution to changes in the level and volatility of interest rate a garch m model abstract the objective of this paper is to employ the generalized autoregressive conditionally heteroskedastic in the mean garch m methodology to investigate the effect of interest rate and its volatility on the bank stock return generation process this framework discards the restrictive assumptions of linearity independence and constant conditional variance in modeling bank stock returns the model presented here allows for shifts in the volatility equation in response to the changes in monetary policy regime in 1979 and 1982 to be estimated arch garch and volatility feed back effects are found to be significant interest rate and interest rate volatility are found to directly impact the first and the second moments of the bank stock returns distribution respectively the latter also affects the risk premia indirectly the degree of persistence in shocks is substantial for all the three bank portfolios and sensitive to the nature of the bank portfolio and the prevailing monetary policy regime

do macro economic news announcements affect the volatility of foreign exchange rates some evidence from australia this paper investigates the role of australian macro economic announcement news on five major australian dollar aud exchange rates specifically the daily changes of the exchange rates are modelled to ascertain the existence and the nature of the news effects in the conditional mean and variance of the changes it is found that a higher than expected current account deficit and unemployment rate announcements depreciated the aud and an unexpectedly higher gdp growth announcement appreciated it current account deficit cpi and unemployment news announcements significantly raised the conditional volatility of the changes of the aud on the days of their announcements except for the bp aud for the cpi news and there is some evidence of retail sales news reducing it in general the evidence is consistent with a view that a release of new information creates uncertainty in the markets due to a lack of consensus on the effects of the particular news announcement and the necessary course of action in add

correlations in price changes and volatility across international stock markets the short run interdependence of prices and price volatility across three major international stock markets is studied daily opening and closing prices of major stock indexes for the tokyo london and new york stock markets are examined the analysis utilizes the autoregressive conditionally heteroskedastic arch family of statistical models to explore these pricing relationships evidence of price volatility spillovers from new york to tokyo london to tokyo and new york to london is observed but no price volatility spillover effects in other directions are found for the pre october 1987 period article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

the dynamics of stock index and stock index futures returns in rational efficiently functioning markets the returns on stock index and stock index futures contracts should be perfectly contemporaneously correlated this study investigates the time series properties of 5 minute intraday returns of stock index and stock index futures contracts and finds that sp however the effect is not completely unidirectional with lagged stock index returns having a mild positive predictive impact on futures returns

new trends in globalization of corporate r d and implications for innovation capability in host countries a survey from india abstract since the mid 1980s transnational corporations tncs have started performing some of their strategic research and development r d in some developing countries the primary driving forces behind such a move by tncs are technology related i e to gain access to science and technology s t resources and cost related i e to exploit the cost differentials r d activities related to product development for regional global markets and generic technologies by tncs are diffusing skills and knowledge to the host countries by establishing linkages between the local innovation systems and tncs worldwide r d network such r d helps to integrate some developing countries into global technology development activities

risk behavior and rational expectations in the u s broiler market this study examines the empirical implications of extending the rational expectations hypothesis reh to include price uncertainty a general estimation framework that incorporates both the restrictions on structural parameters and the variance covariance terms is developed garch time series processes are used to generate time varying expectations of both the means and the variances of exogenous variables the empirical application is with a quarterly model of the u s broiler industry the results indicate that the rational expectation of price variance is an important determinant of broiler supply a formal test indicates that the restrictions implied by the reh cannot be rejected

the limits of r d internationalization and the importance of local initiatives turkey as a critical case the growth of r d in east asia has triggered the notion of a new innovation geography where r d is no longer a privilege of the traditional oecd countries what does this mean for mid sized emerging economies without the scale advantages and bargaining power of india or china this paper uses turkey as a case to examine the continual unevenness of international r d investments by analyzing opportunities and limitations for local initiatives in the telecommunications pharmaceutical and automotive industries the paper finds that active private capital a sufficient scale of production and focused public policies are needed to attract international r d

the temporal price relationship between s p 500 futures and the s p 500 index this paper empirically examines the intraday price relationship between s p 500 futures and the s p 500 index using minute to minute data three stage least squares regression is used to estimate lead and lag relationships with estimates for expiration days of the s p 500 futures compared with estimates for days prior to expiration the results suggest that futures price movements consistently lead index movements by twenty to forty five minutes while movements in the index rarely affect futures beyond one minute

transnational corporations and local capital comparative conduct and performance in the turkish pharmaceutical industry abstract the comparative conduct and performance of tncs and domestic enterprises in lcds has been an issue of continuing debate and research further empirical evidence is still greatly needed in the particular case of the pharmaceutical industry however relatively little attention has been devoted to the evaluation of the relative conduct and performance of domestic firms the existence of a large locally owned sector in the turkish pharmaceutical industry renders such an evaluation possible the paper examines the comparative behavior of tncs and local firms over five distinct areas namely technology choice export performances appropriate marketing products and prices it concludes that in the majority of these areas behavioral similarities predominate over possible differences

on the informational flow between financial markets abstract this paper investigates the informational flow from the world s stock markets to the small finnish stock and stock index futures markets our results indicate that the returns of the world s stock markets are reflected more strongly in the finnish stock index futures market than in the finnish stock market this is apparently due to trading mechanisms short selling restrictions and thin trading in the helsinki stock exchange thus our evidence suggests that results concerning the informational flow between the world s financial markets may be significantly underestimated if purely stock market returns are used in the tests

r d internationalization r d collaboration and public knowledge institutions in small economies evidence from finland and the netherlands this paper investigates domestic and foreign innovating firms determinants of r d collaboration with domestic universities and public knowledge institutes in finland and the netherlands we put particular emphasis on the impact of incoming academic spillovers on the probability to co operate with these public r d institutes based on data from community innovation surveys we find that foreign firms in the netherlands are less likely to co operate with domestic public knowledge institutions than domestic firms while in finland no significant difference can be detected another result is that incoming knowledge spillovers are an important determinant for r d collaboration with domestic public knowledge institutions in both countries in case of foreign firms in finland incoming knowledge spillovers affect the probability to co operate with public knowledge institutions more positively as compared with domestic firms for the netherlands no substantial difference could be found in this respect further innovating firms in finland that require academic or basic knowledge do not co operate significantly more with public knowledge institutions than those that need applied knowledge at the same time they are willing to share knowledge with public r d partners in the netherlands innovating firms that require relatively more basic than applied knowledge increase the probability of co operation with dutch universities and public knowledge institutions but there is reluctance to share proprietary knowledge with public r d partners for both countries no significant difference between foreign and domestic firms with regard to academic knowledge requirements could be found this raises the issue whether finnish innovation policies with a strong focus on r d co operation provide incentives for strategic behaviour by domestic public partners to put more emphasis on applied research

on the riskiness of the world s stock markets abstract the main aim of this paper is to study the riskiness of the world s stock markets this is carried out by applying the concepts of the two main asset pricing models the capital asset pricing model capm and the arbitrage pricing model apm certain obvious risk categories among world stock markets exist three major potential reasons for the existence of these different risk categories are reported firstly economic trade and currency areas seem to affect the riskiness of different stock markets with north american european and oceanic stock exchanges quite clearly creating their own separate factors secondly the level of institutional development of a given market also appears to be a factor determining its riskiness thin stock markets such as those of finland and mexico seem to exhibit a different price behaviour of their own thirdly the combined effect of different time zones and efficiency is discussed especially in the case of the uk stock markets vs other european stock markets

forecasting realized volatility with linear and nonlinear univariate models in this paper we consider a nonlinear model based on neural networks as well as linear models to forecast the daily volatility of the s p 500 and ftse 100 futures as a proxy for daily volatility we consider a consistent and unbiased estimator of the integrated volatility that is computed from high frequency intraday returns we also consider a simple algorithm based on bagging bootstrap aggregation in order to specify the models analysed in this paper

seigniorage and political instability the importance of seigniorage relative to other sources of government revenue differs markedly across countries this paper tries to explain this regularity by studying a political model of tax reform the model implies that countries with a more unstable and polarized political system will have more inefficient tax structures and thus will rely more heavily on seigniorage this prediction of the model is tested on cross sectional data for seventy countries the authors find that after controlling for other variables political instability is positively associated with seigniorage copyright 1992 by american economic association

market serial correlation on a small security market a note this note reports on an empirical investigation into the relative importance of different explanations of market serial correlation market serial correlation taken as the first order serial correlation in the logarithmic differences of a market index may apparently be explained by the serial correlation of individual stock returns the other less apparent explanation advanced in the literature concerns nonsynchronous trading in individual stocks recently perry 9 and atchinson butler and simonds 1 1 have shown that there seems to be yet an additional unexplained component present that tends to induce serial correlation in portfolio returns at least in u s data in this paper the actual contribution of these explanations to the first order autocorrelation of changes in the value weighted market index on a markedly thin security market the helsinki stock exchange hese 2 in finland will be examined the hese is a specific case in the sense that its trading procedure may create additional first order market serial correlation we will show that the rules of the exchange produce additional intraday nonsynchroneity in stock returns and thus aggravate the problem of market serial correlation an attempt to assess the importance of this additional cause of market serial correlation will also be made in 1966 lawrence fisher 7 observed that an index return calculated on the basis of the latest recorded trading prices will tend to be serially correlated if share prices tend to react similarly to certain types of news this will be the case when some share prices react almost immediately whereas others simply because of an absence of trading will experience a reaction delay if nonsynchronous trading is taken to be the first cause of market serial correlation the second one is the serial correlation of individual stock returns cohen hawawini maier schwartz and whitcomb 6 review the literature on why individual stock returns especially in thin markets may be serially corre

the efficiency gains from dynamic tax reform this paper presents a new simulation methodology for determining the pure efficiency gains from tax reform along the general equilibrium rational expectations growth path of life cycle economies the principal findings concern the effects of switching from a proportional income tax with rates similar to those in the u s to either a proportional tax on consumption or a proportional tax on labor income a switch to consumption taxation generates a sustainable welfare gain of almost 2 percent of lifetime resources in contrast a transition to wage taxation generates a loss of greater than percent of lifetime re sources a second general result is that even a mild degree of progressivity in the income tax system imposes a very large efficiency cost this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

technological internationalisation in the electro technical industry a cross company comparison of patenting patterns 1986 2000 abstract this paper addresses the issue of r d internationalisation of two multinationals in the electro technical industry ge and abb by means of a patent data analysis the overwhelming majority of both companies r d activities are concentrated in western europe and north america the locational overlap between the two firms activities is small these results are consistent with findings from earlier studies that 1 there is little evidence to suggest that the production of technology is globalised in a general sense and 2 that tapping knowledge from an industry s global lead location plays a very limited role in foreign r d investments

global technology development by colocating r d and manufacturing the case of swedish manufacturing mnes in this study we analyze the role of colocation between research and development r d and manufacturing for global technology development by multinational enterprises mnes the extant literature suggests that the main strategic role of colocated r d units is to locally adapt existing products and processes however data from 146 foreign r d units of sweden s 17 largest manufacturing mnes in 2013 show that they instead mainly develop new technology not only for the local and regional markets but to a large extent for the global market a likely explanation is that colocation positively contributes to joint problem solving and transfer of tacit knowledge between production and r d personnel all of which is necessary in new product development especially in industries characterized by complex products and systems and rapid technological change a theoretical implication is that depending on industry characteristics internal cross functional linkages between r d and manufacturing can be more critical than external supply and demand side factors when it comes to influence where r d units are located globally

a conditional variance model for daily deviations of an exchange rate a model for the distribution of daily deviations of an exchange rate is suggested the distribution is gaussian with a variance that depends on previous deviations the model is applied to the exchange rate of the u s dollar to special drawing rights

stock index futures arbitrage in finland theory and evidence in a new market abstract this paper examines the pricing of stock index futures contracts on the new finnish market the striking feature of the finnish market is that there is no institutional framework for short selling of stocks this has been suggested to be the most important reason for the underpricing futures contracts persistent mispricing would however imply that also early and delayed unwindings have value which increases the arbitrage profits several rollover profits are reported in this study this suggest that current stock owners have not yet begun trading on the finnish futures market on a large scale

new concepts and trends in international r d organization abstract the globalization of markets the regionalization of technical and scientific expertise and the rapid change in technologies are forcing technology based companies to continuously adjust their r d organization our study of 33 companies reveals five different types of r d organization in multinational companies mnc we classified r d organizations according to the dispersion of r d activities and the degree of cooperation between individual r d units and identified the ethnocentric centralized the geocentric centralized the polycentric decentralized the r d hub and the integrated r d network organization five trends of organizational change among these forms of international r d organization were identified 1 stronger orientation of r d activities towards international markets and knowledge centers 2 establishment of tightly coordinated listening posts 3 strengthening and reinforcement of foreign r d sites 4 increased integration of decentralized r d units and 5 tighter coordination and recentralization of r d activities at fewer know how centers the search for the optimal balance between coordination and control is reflected by hybrid structures and intermediary configurations detected in some of the investigated companies since effective changes in behavioral orientation require considerable time successful quantum leaps in multinational r d organization are next to impossible

is co invention expediting technological catch up a study of collaboration between emerging country firms and eu inventors firms from emerging countries are going global and europe is attracting around one third of their direct outward investments growing internationalization constitutes an opportunity for technological catch up in this paper we analyze brazilian indian and chinese cross border inventions with european union eu 27 inventors during the period 1990 2012 our results suggest that these inventions represent an opportunity for emerging country firms to accumulate technological capabilities access frontier knowledge and appropriate the property rights of co inventions this paper contributes to understanding catching up by emerging country firms c 2015 elsevier ltd all rights reserved

arch models properties estimation and testing abstract the aim of this survey paper is to provide an account of some of the important developments in the autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity arch model since its inception in a seminal paper by engle 1982 this model takes account of many observed properties of asset prices and therefore various interpretations can be attributed to it we start with the basic arch models and discuss their different interpretations arch models have been generalized in different directions to accommodate more and more features of the real world we provide a comprehensive treatment of many of the extensions of the original arch model next we discuss estimation and testing for arch models and note that these models lead to some interesting and unique problems there have been numerous applications and we mention some of these as we present different models the paper includes a glossary of the acronyms for the models we describe

intraday volatility in the stock index and stock index futures markets we examine the intraday relationship between returns and returns volatility in the stock index and stock index futures markets our results indicate a strong intermarket dependence in the volatility of the cash and futures returns price innovations that originate in either the stock or futures markets can predict the future volatility in the other market we show that this relationship persists even during periods in which the dependence in the returns themselves appears to weaken the findings are robust to controlling for potential market frictions such as asynchronous trading in the stock index our results have implications for understanding the pattern of information flows between the two markets article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

reconsidering patents and economic development a case study of the turkish pharmaceutical industry abstract the role that patents play in third world economic development has been a subject of growing debate during the last two decades the empirical evidence however has been insufficient to allow a closer evaluation of the contending arguments the objective of this article is to reconsider the main issues of the debate on patents on the basis of the relatively long experience of non patentability that is since 1961 in the turkish pharmaceutical industry it is argued here that there is no simple and straightforward relationship between patents and third world industrialization either in the way that the supporters of the systems have perceived or on the grounds that the critics have raised their objections

a note on the predictability of finnish stock market returns evidence from stock index futures markets abstract this paper provides further evidence on the predictability of the finnish stock market returns the results show the significant role of index futures returns as an important vehicle in stock market return and volatility prediction

a simple model of endogenous tax reform abstract this paper presents a model of optimal taxation that is useful for understanding governments incentives to switch from wage to consumption taxation the key ingredient is the fact that governments cannot precommit policy although under precommitment governments would tax only wages there is an ex post incentive to switch to the consumption tax as savings grow numerical examples for a nested ces utility function find that for reasonable parameter values equilibrium features a switch to consumption taxation in particular the model produces this tax reform when parameterized as in auerbach and kotlikoff s 1987 study

replacing the u s income tax with a progressive consumption tax a sequenced general equilibrium approach abstract this paper examines the welfare consequences of changing the current u s income tax system to a progressive consumption tax we compute a sequence of single period equilibria in which savings decisions depend on the expected future return to capital in the presence of existing income taxes the u s economy is assumed to lie on a balanced growth path with the change to a consumption tax individuals save more and initially consume less as the capital stock grows consumption eventually overtakes that of the original path and the economy approaches the new balanced growth path with higher consumption and a greater capital stock both the transition and the balanced growth paths enter our welfare evaluations we find the discounted present value of the stream of net gains is approximately 650 billion in 1973 dollars just over 1 percent of the discounted present value of national income larger gains occur if further reform of capital income taxation accompanies the change we examine the sensitivity of the results both to the design of the consumption tax and to the values of elasticity and other parameters the paper also contains estimates of the time required to adjust from one growth path to the other

location versus home country advantages in r d activities some further results on multinationals locational strategies abstract in this paper we study the question of the determinants of the foreign location of technological activities of multinational firms mnfs do they locate their knowledge activities as a consequence of their home country advantages or according to host country strengths we have defined four types of strategy learning according to revealed technological advantages our results based on the 345 mnfs with the greatest patenting activity in europe globally confirm the main findings of patel and vega research policy 28 2 3 1999 145 155 in a great majority of cases nearly 70 mnfs locate their activities abroad in technological areas or fields where they are strong at home strategies 2 and 3 moreover strategy 3 which corresponds with dynamic learning outclasses strategy 2 which corresponds with myopic learning and becomes increasingly important over time the strategy of japanese firms is very different from european and us mnfs in europe japanese firms seek out locations that have complementary strengths to their own strategy 2 in terms of policy implications it can be noted that the national system of innovation in particular the system of academic research should strengthen the technological advantages of local firms and enable them to successfully locate a part of their r d activities abroad

the welfare cost of factor taxation in a perfect foresight model this paper examines the marginal efficiency cost of various factor taxes in a dynamic general equilibrium model the au thor solves for the excess burden of anticipated and unanticipated t emporary and permanent tax policies using a range of estimates for taste and technology parameters he finds excess burdens larger than those indicated by previous studies that use static models these exc ess burdens are sensitive to parameter values and timing however th e rankings of alternative tax policies turn out to be insensitive to structural parameter values copyright 1987 by university of chicago press

heteroskedasticity in stock return data volume versus garch effects this paper provides empirical support for the notion that autoregressive conditional heterqskedasticity arch in daily stock return data reflects time dependence in the process generating information flow to the market daily trading volume used as a proxy for information arrival time is shown to have significant explanatory power regarding the variance of daily returns which is an implication of the assumption that daily returns are subordinated to intraday equilibrium returns furthermore arch effects tend to disappear when volume is included in the variance equation the autoregressive conditiqnal heteroskedasticity arch process of engle 1982 has been shown to provide a good fit for many financial return time series 1 arch imposes an autoregressive structure on conditional variance allqwing volatility shocks to persist over time this persistence captures the propensity of returns of like magnitude to clu ter in time and can explain the well documented nonnormality and nonstability of empirical asset return distributions see especially fama 1965 an appealing explanation for the presence of arch is based upon the hypothesis that daily returns are generated by a maiture of distributions in which the rate of daily information arrival is the stochastic mixing variable as suggested by diebold 1986 gallant hsieh and tauchen 1988 and stock 1987 1988 arch might capture the time series properties e g serial correlation of this mixing variable hqwever this linkage has not been broadly documented with the datia the objective of this study is to examine the validity of this explanation for daily stock returns the empirical strategy exploits the implication of the mixture model that the variance of daily price increments is heteroskedastic specifically positively related to the rate of daily information arrival using daily trading volume as a proxy for the mixing variable we show that for a sample of 20 common stocks arch effects vanish when volume is included as an explanatory variable in the conditional variance equation

bridging the gap between the distribution of realized ecu volatility and arch modelling of the euro the garch nig model summary this paper bridges the gap between traditional arch modelling and recent advances on realized volatilities based on a ten year sample of five minute returns for the ecu basket currencies versus the us dollar we find that the realized volatilities constructed from the summation of the high frequency intraday squared returns conditional on the lagged squared daily returns are approximately inverse gaussian ig distributed while the distribution of the daily returns standardized by their realized volatilities is approximately normal moreover the implied daily garch model with normal inverse gaussian nig errors estimated for the ecu returns results in very accurate out of sample predictions for the three years of actual daily euro us dollar exchange rates copyright 2002 john wiley sons ltd