trade openness tax reform and tax revenue in developing countries this article investigates empirically whether the effect of tax reform involving the progressive replacement of trade tax revenue with domestic tax revenue in developing countries tax revenue performance measured by tax revenue to gdp ratio depends on the degree of trade openness of these countries the analysis has used an unbalanced panel data set of 95 developing countries over the period 1981 2015 and the two system gmm approach results suggest that tax reform is positively and significantly associated with tax revenue performance in developing countries with the magnitude of this positive effect increasing as countries experience a higher development level additionally and more importantly countries that further open up their economies to international trade enjoy a higher positive effect of tax reform on tax revenue than countries that experience a lower degree of trade openness therefore these findings should help dissipate the concerns of policymakers in developing countries that greater openness to international trade would further erode their tax revenue including by lowering their international trade tax revenue in fact the implementation of an appropriate tax reform in the context of greater trade openness would generate higher tax revenue while concurrently allowing countries to reap the well known benefits of international trade

the international monetary fund and developing countries a review of the evidence and policy options as its systemic role evaporated with the collapse of the bretton woods system so the international monetary fund imf became drawn into a much more specific role in the context of the balance of payments bop problems that developing countries were encountering at its inception the imf had been seen as having no specific role in developing countries but now it became exclusively these countries that formed its clientele while during the 1970s the imf had continued to make a few relatively large loans to a limited number of industrial countries italy and the united kingdom beyond the mid 1970s industrial countries ceased to draw any resources from it

design and analysis of simulated consumer choice or allocation experiments an approach based on aggregate data the authors integrate concepts in conjoint analysis and discrete choice theory in econometrics to develop a new approach to the design and analysis of controlled consumer choice or resource allocat

support systems for the diffusion of renewable energy technologies an investor perspective concern over climate change impacts and the projected depletion of fossil fuels has urged more governments to adopt policies that stimulate the diffusion of renewable energy technologies ret with an increasingly diverse suite of support instruments the question emerges as to which instruments or combinations are able to achieve faster more substantial diffusion results although various support instruments were extensively addressed in policy studies there is still no consensus this is partly because many policy studies take a policy maker approach in comparing support instruments leaving relationships between policy design and policy results as a black box this paper proposes an investor oriented perspective to analyze the diffusion potential of support systems for ret the main argument is that it is not the type of support instrument but rather its risk profitability characteristics that influence investor behavior and the rate of diffusion the two instruments most frequently discussed and compared are the feed in tariff and the quota model the analysis in this paper concludes that policy design is crucial while often feed in tariffs are applauded and quota system feared feed in tariffs may also bring about disappointing diffusion results when poorly designed while quota systems may be also conceived as attractive instruments for independent power producers

aid and exchange rate adjustment in african trade liberalisations most african governments must except for short periods of time set macroeconomic policies which are compatible that is trade restrictions the exchange rate and budgetary cum monetary policy must be coordinated in such a way as to avoid depletion of foreign exchange reserves often the potential for departure from compatibility is minimal for example for some years the tanzanian economy was run with reserve cover of only a few days of imports 2 trade liberalisation must therefore involve continuous coordination with other policies so as to maintain compatibility one theoretical possibility is for a gradual creep towards liberalisation with coordination achieved by ex post fine tuning however recent surveys of numerous non african trade liberalisations papageorgiou et al i99i conclude that large abrupt liberalisations have proved more sustainable apart from economic considerations it is quite possible that for political reasons gradual trade liberalisation is not feasible in africa transient political windows of opportunity are either seized with an abrupt liberalisation or missed altogether further donors may insist on liberalisation being abrupt such a liberalisation starkly poses the coordination problem and this paper uses a simple computable general equilibrium model cge to explore alternative compatible strategies in an africa type economy the essence of the compatibility problem can be seen by considering the consequence of a liberalisation in which no other policies are changed the reduction of tariffs or more commonly the relaxation of quotas will lower the domestic price of importable goods and thereby reduce the demand for money 3 being a stock effect in the short term this will dominate any changes in the money supply brought about by the fiscal implications of liberalisation since these are flow effects hence there will be an excess supply of money and so a payments deficit the paper investigates three alternative strategies which prevent such an outcome each maintaining compatibility the first section 2 is to achieve an offsetting increase in the demand for money through devaluation the second section 3 is to use programme aid to finance a deficit until the money supply is sufficiently depleted these two extremes respectively characterise the post i986 nigerian trade liberalisation and all

modeling growth and liberalization using smooth transitions analysis i introduction there is a large and growing literature on liberalization and its effects stimulated initially by the very extensive trade reform programs promoted in developing countries over the last fifteen years or so and sustained by the attempts to understand what is happening in the eastern and central european economies the latter do not feature in this paper though the techniques demonstrated here may in time prove to be useful for gaining insight into the effects of regime changes underway liberalization in the sense of trade reforms which reduce anti export bias in one way or another while improving the information content of relative price changes has been promoted in some eighty or so developing countries in the 1980s and 1990s some of these liberalizations are unilateral most are policy conditioned under the aegis of world bank structural adjustment loans sals 1 all have been undertaken on the assumption that liberalization will ultimately improve export and growth performance the evidence on liberalization and growth however is at best somewhat mixed on the one hand one has the exhaustive study of papageorgiou michaely and choksi 1991 which claims a close and direct association on the other hand greenaway and sapsford 1994 find only a limited role for liberalization and a range of studies of sals associate adjustment with a deterioration in growth performance 2 these studies generally rely either on crude data inspection simple correlation analysis or multivariate regression this paper takes a new approach to the question it starts from the presumption that any changes in economic performance following a liberalization may be more appropriately modeled as a steady transition rather than a discrete change to model the change in this way we make use of the recent work of granger and terasvirta 1994 who explore the properties of a variety of nonlinear specifications that facilitate modeling structural change as a smooth transition between states we estimate and test the adequacy of a number of such specifications our analysis is in two stages first we take a novel approach to the modeling of growth which allows us to model deterministic change without as other analysts have done imposing discrete changes not only does this help clarify the statistical properties of the time series it also challenges the assumptions that underpin much growth modeling having identified the transitions in the growth series we are investigating we then explore the coincidence of these transitions with well documented episodes of liberalization we do not formally test whether liberalization results in growth our results are however informative in two respects firstly they place a question mark against the widely held presumption that liberalization is a panacea for growth secondly they also point the way to the appropriate econometric modeling of these processes the remainder of the paper is structured as follows section ii briefly describes the context against which our analysis is set section iii sets out the details of our methodology and the models to be tested section iv reports our results contrasts them with those of previous work and evaluates the implications for policy section v concludes and identifies possible extensions ii liberalization exports and growth previous evidence there are essentially two strands of the literature which provide relevant background one which relates exports and growth a second which relates liberalization to exports and growth the exports and growth literature is an extensive one which goes back some years 3 it starts from the presumption that exports and growth are directly related with causality running from changes in exports to changes in growth 4 analysts have deployed a variety of empirical methods usually of growth accounting type models and covering a range of countries and time periods

volatility and investment interpreting evidence from developing countries we uncover a significant negative correlation between various volatility measures and private investment in developing countries even when adding the standard control variables no such correlation is uncovered when the investment measure is the sum of private and public investment spending indeed public investment spending is positively correlated with some ineasures of volatility these findings suggest that the detrimental impact of volatility on investment may be easier to detect using disaggregated data we provide several possible interpretations for our findings nonlinearities in preferences or budget constraints can cause volatility to have first order negative effects on private investment

local acceptance of renewable energy a case study from southeast germany the european 20 20 20 goals as well as national targets for the next decade require a substantial increase in installed renewable capacity in germany while public support for such measures is high on an abstract level the situation in the local context is often very different here the impact of renewable energy might cause resistance empirical research shows that a community ownership model can have a positive effect on local acceptance our study explores whether such an effect can also be demonstrated in a community co ownership model the question is relevant since larger projects exceed the financial possibilities of most communities leaving them with only co ownership as an option the research design is based on a comparative case study utilizing a questionnaire based survey the results of the survey clearly show that a significant difference in local acceptance exists between the two cases the residents of zschadras where a community co ownership model exists are consistently more positive towards local renewable energy and also towards renewable energy in general the results provide evidence that the co ownership model is a means to reconcile local acceptance with an increased use of renewable energy in germany

adjustment trade policy and investment slumps evidence from africa abstract this paper presents a model of investment in six african economies over the 1970s and 80s paying particular attention to the impact of the policy reforms which have accompanied structural adjustment programmes a priori the impact of trade reform on investment can be positive or negative in practise there is some evidence that it might be negative

the investor specific price of renewable energy project risk a choice experiment with incumbent utilities and institutional investors abstract renewable energy investments in germany have recently soared trebling the output of wind and solar power generation in only ten years while incumbent utilities have lagged behind in terms of investment new entrants have significantly contributed to this growth existing literature has primarily focused on explaining the lethargy of incumbents former investments although there is a growing need to investigate recent investment drivers to secure the necessary power plant capacity at a moderate cost from incumbents and new entrants alike to close this gap a choice experiment involving 1 659 investment choices by 52 european professional investors was conducted in significant contrast to the case with altruistic investors this survey underlines the importance of using financial incentives to attract professional investors given full exposure to electricity price risk incumbent utilities would facilitate projects at a 3 04 risk premium whereas institutional investors demand 6 61 generally incumbent utilities and institutional investors are equally attracted by low risk projects however when risk increases institutional investors are more hesitant to become involved while incumbent utilities confidently navigate these higher risk projects

when do households invest in solar photovoltaics an application of prospect theory abstract while investments in renewable energy sources res are incentivized around the world the policy tools that do so are still poorly understood leading to costly misadjustments in many cases as a case study the deployment dynamics of residential solar photovoltaics pv invoked by the german feed in tariff legislation are investigated here we report a model showing that the question of when people invest in residential pv systems is found to be not only determined by profitability but also by profitability s change compared to the status quo this finding is interpreted in the light of loss aversion a concept developed in kahneman and tversky s prospect theory the model is able to reproduce most of the dynamics of the uptake with only a few financial and behavioral assumptions

financial incentives to mobilise local citizens as investors in low carbon technologies a systematic literature review abstract mobilising greater levels of private finance through local citizen investment in low carbon technologies can help bridge the capital shortfall to meeting climate objectives while also building societal support for the low carbon transition within this context we undertake a systematic review of literature assessing the impact of technology specific economic and financial incentives promoting greater levels of investment in low carbon technologies from local citizen investors both individuals and community groups we focus in particular on the impact of feed in tariffs compared to quota schemes grants tax incentives and soft loans the analysis suggests that local citizen investors do not necessarily act in an economically rational manner in response to these incentives it underscores the importance of understanding the preferences of target demographics the local context as well as the characteristics of the technologies in question and suggests interventions should be considered as part of wider policy packages while identifying challenges to be overcome through instrument design we find that feed in tariffs grants and tax incentives can be successful in mobilising greater levels of investment from local citizen investors but that soft loans tend to be less effective as a stand alone instrument the review identifies areas meriting further exploration in this emerging field of research

does foreign aid increase private investment evidence from panel cointegration this article uses panel cointegration and causality techniques to examine the long run relationship between foreign aid and private investment our main result is that aid has a statistically significant negative effect on private investment this result is robust to outliers different measures and forms of aid sample selection and the sample period in addition we find that long run causality runs in both directions suggesting that an increase in aid reduces private investment and that in turn higher private investment leads to lower aid inflows

regulating technological change the strategic reactions of utility companies towards subsidy policies in the german spanish and uk electricity markets abstract this paper focuses on how incumbent electric utilities strategically react to subsidy schemes supporting renewable energy technologies in the uk germany and spain firms coordinate the development of their technological capabilities and their political activities to shape their regulatory environment analysing the diffusion of wind power in these countries we show that the different ways in which firms coordinate their technological and political strategies lead to very different market outcomes both for the firms market share and the size of the overall market although incumbents are usually seen as being resistant to change in energy systems we show that spanish utilities proactively drive the diffusion of wind power we speculate about the relation between the ownership structure of the energy system and its inertia with respect to the integration of new technologies we derive novel policy implications that explicitly take into account the strategic actions of incumbent firms shaping the technological and regulatory system

uncertainty economic reforms and private investment in the middle east and north africa during the 1980s and the 1990s private investment in the middle east and north africa mena has on average shown a decreasing or stagnant trend this contrasts with the situation of the asian economies where private investment has always been more dynamic in this paper it is empirically shown for a panel of 39 developing economies among which four mena countries that in addition to the traditional determinants of investment such as the growth anticipations and the real interest rate government policies explain mena s low investment rate insufficient structural reforms which have most of the time led to poor financial development and deficient trade openness have been a crucial factor for the deficit in private capital formation the economic uncertainties of the region have represented another factor of the firm s decisions not to invest these uncertainties have consisted of the external debt burden and various measures of volatility

the impact of terms of trade and real exchange rate volatility on investment and growth in sub saharan africa abstract specialization in primary product exports reduces growth but why adverse trends in and the high variance of primary product prices are possible explanations the impact on investment and growth of the level and volatility of the terms of trade and the real effective exchange rate is estimated for a panel of 14 sub saharan african countries over 1980 1995 growth is negatively affected by terms of trade instability and investment by real exchange rate instability both growth and investment increase when the terms of trade improve and real exchange rate overvaluation is eliminated

evaluating the impact of world bank structural adjustment lending 1980 87 this article attempts to evaluate the world bank s programme aid in the form of structural adjustment loans with emphasis on the distinction between the influence of programme finance and the influence of the policy conditions attached to this finance the rate of return on world bank programme aid measured in terms of the impact of gdp growth rates is found to have been disappointing the study also identifies a negative correlation between structural adjustment loans and investment it was also found that the bank programme aid s strongest beneficial effect has been on the balance of payments current account both via the stimulation of exports and via the curbing of imports

the effectiveness of structural adjustment lending initial evidence from malawi abstract the world bank s new programs of structural adjustment lending are likely to prove most effective with those governments which demonstrate shared ideals in their approach to economic adjustment and policy reform malawi has long been regarded as a country placing great reliance on the market in resource allocation showing restraint in public sector expansion and retaining a strong export orientation the balance of payments difficulties and the deterioration in economic circumstances which began in 1980 did not arise solely from external shocks but the structural adjustment lending programs introduced in 1981 as a means of easing the painful reform process found root in a fertile and responsive policy environment this paper chronicles the first two sals to malawi reviewing in particular the specific policy reforms advocated and required by the bank the extent of their implementation and the provisional effects on the malawi economy

modelling the impact of world bank policy based lending the case of malawi s agricultural sector this article uses a multi market agricultural pricing model to analyse the impact of the world bank s three structural adjustment loans sals to malawi on the smallholder agricultural sector three price policy scenarios are simulated on the model representing zero partial and full compliance with the bank s sal price policy conditionality these scenarios are analysed in terms of their impact on the government budget smallholder real incomes maize production exportable cash crop production and the balance of payments critiques of the bank s programme and the government and bank bargaining strategies are assessed in the light of the modelling results

low investment and large ldc debt in the 1980s this paper aims at disentangling the correlation between ldc debt and investment in the 1980s the author shows that a large debt was not an unconditional predictor of low investment in the 1980s nor was investment abnormally low when compared to a financial autarky rate calculated in the text he does find however that the actual service of the debt crowded out investment for the rescheduling countries he shows that 1 percent of gdp paid abroad reduced domestic investment by 0 3 percent of gdp this is identical to the correlation between investment and foreign finance observed in the 1960s copyright 1993 by american economic association

cambodia rapid growth in an open post conflict economy this study provides an analytical review of world trade organization trade policy review cambodia the first such report undertaken for the country the report highlights cambodia s rapid economic growth after one of the world s worst cases of genocide in the second half of the twentieth century this growth has been underpinned by open trade and investment policies in the context of dynamic neighbourhood growth effects the trade regime is mainly tariff based with modest intersectoral variations in rates cambodia has limited trade policy space it is a signatory to the 10 nation asean free trade agreement soon to become the asean economic community moreover given its long and porous borders with the much larger dynamic economies of thailand and vietnam any major cross border price differences will quickly result in informal trade with these economies and nearby china most of the country s trade policy challenges are to do with behind the border issues a legacy of its generation of civil war and conflict these include weak bureaucratic capacity high levels of corruption poor infrastructure and limited human capital

trade policy in burundi reform without political stability this paper evaluates burundi s progress with trade policy reform by comparing earlier analyses of burundi s trade policies undertaken in the 1980s with that of the wto s recent trade policy review since the mid 1980s burundi has been trying to reform its trade and macroeconomic policies against the background of continuous socio political tensions and periodic outbreaks of violent tribal conflict a then and now comparison allows us to assess both the extent of the trade reforms and of the economic return to those reforms it is evident that there has been a significant rationalisation and simplification of trade policy burundi has eliminated most quantitative import restrictions and reduced the average level and range of its tariffs the scope for allocative distortions undesirable redistributive effects and for impediments to investment and growth has been substantially reduced however a return to reform in terms of export growth or diversification and of overall economic growth is not discernible yet this is unsurprising given the scale of the economic disruption sustained socio political stability among other things will be required to induce the investment in human and physical capital needed for a positive return to trade policy reform

understanding carbon lock in abstract this paper narrative argues that industrial economies have been locked into fossil fuel based energy systems through a process of technological and institutional co evolution driven by path dependent increasing returns to scale it is asserted that this condition termed carbon lock in creates persistent market and policy failures that can inhibit the diffusion of carbon saving technologies despite their apparent environmental and economic advantages the notion of a techno institutional complex is introduced to capture the idea that lock in occurs through combined interactions among technological systems and governing institutions while carbon lock in provides a conceptual basis for understanding macro level barriers to the diffusion of carbon saving technologies it also generates questions for standard economic modeling approaches that abstract away technological and institutional evolution in their elaboration the question of escaping carbon lock in is left for a future paper

explaining the diversity of motivations behind community renewable energy community based renewable energy initiatives may be important actors in the transition toward low carbon energy systems in turn stimulating investments in renewable energy production at the community level requires a better understanding of investors motives this paper aims to study the heterogeneity of motivations that drive individuals to participate in community renewable energy projects and the underlying explanatory factors behind this as well as the implications for their level of engagement in initiatives based on quantitative data from an original survey conducted with two renewable energy cooperatives in flanders the statistical analysis shows that cooperative members should not be considered as one homogeneous group several categories of members with different motives and levels of engagement can be distinguished this heterogeneity is explained by contrasts in terms of institutional settings spatial patterns and attitudes to the diffusion of institutional innovations regarding policy implications the findings suggest that this heterogeneity should be taken into account in designing more effective supporting policies to stimulate investments at the community level the activation of social norms is also shown to be a promising mechanism for triggering investment decisions although the implications of its interplay with economic incentives should be further explored

governing community energy feed in tariffs and the development of community wind energy schemes in the united kingdom and germany this paper analyses the development of community energy in the uk by comparing it to germany in relation to decentralisation scales and ownership structures particularly of wind energy varying approaches to energy generation at the community scale provide interesting insights into the impact of policy innovation as well as the capacity of national energy frameworks to foster socially innovative engagement practices beyond the purely technological diffusion of innovations by examining interactions between technological and social innovations with the help of a qualitative analysis opportunities for potential generators not traditionally engaged in energy generation to tap into these innovation systems are analysed this paper suggests that greater commitment to diversification beyond the implementation of policy measures such as the feed in tariff is required to provide communities with the capacity to develop new generation practices in terms of scale and ownership the uk in particular is struggling to protect these new generation practices which allow communities to derive benefits facilitated by specific energy policy measures according to their potential it concludes by indicating areas where niche protection might need to be expanded if community energy is to play a greater role in the uk s ambitious transition to a low carbon economy

the investment decision a re examination of competing theories using panel data in the united states gross business fixed investments constitute about 10 percent of the gross national product gnp such investments may represent gnp s most important component because a plant and equipment have a long term effect on the economy s productive capacity b changes in investment spending directly affect employment levels and workers incomes in durable goods industries and c supply and demand are sensitive to investment changes economists have long been concerned about what determines capital spending investments using data for us manufacturing firms for 1972 90 the author compares five investment theories accelerator theory cash flow theory neoclassical theory modified neoclassical theory and q theory if the results for cross section regressions can be viewed as representing the long term equilibrium the single most important determinant of capital spending appears to be cash flow apparently managers care more about cash flow and cost of capital than about stock market signals and the level of output and at the firm level managerial perceptions about fundamentals are more important that market perceptions for managers the stock market may be a side show to capital spending decisions to generalize in a way useful for developing countries firm level financial decisions are closely linked to real decisions in the economy internal finance is the most important use of funds so there is a close relationship between real and financial decisions

fiscal composition and aid effectiveness a political economy model summary in the long run tax effort we argue determines the effectiveness of aid and this relationship operates simultaneously with the negative link in the opposite direction observed by brautigam and knack 2004 and others tax effort and the ability of the state to diversify its taxation structure we find are significantly linked to growth and poverty indicators the key message for policy is that a broadening of the tax structure in low income countries is crucial in order to enable those countries to escape from the weak state low tax trap and to make aid effective

tax revenue performance and vulnerability in developing countries this paper addresses vulnerability of revenue to external shocks using export composition to capture economic structure and differentiating countries according to income levels resource endowments and political regimes this gives a richer characterization than previous studies lower income countries are vulnerable to shocks especially in terms of trade associated with the greatest revenue loss democratic regimes seem to be less vulnerable to revenue losses due to shocks than non democracies whereas revenue in resource rich is more vulnerable to shocks except natural disasters than non resource rich countries we find a negative relationship between manufacturing exports and revenue in lower income countries

the link between increased trade openness and the terms of trade an empirical investigation abstract despite the fairly widespread move towards more open trade policies in developing countries relatively little attention has been paid to the effect of these policies on the terms of trade using a large sample of countries this paper tries to assess empirically the validity of the small country assumption which underlies the washington consensus on development strategies our evidence suggests that there is a sizable group of countries ldcs and non ldcs for which the assumption of exogenous traded goods prices can be rejected one implication is that terms of trade considerations should be included in the assessment of trade liberalization policies these effects might rise considerably when several countries liberalize simultaneously

squaring the sunny circle on balancing distributive justice of power grid costs and incentives for solar prosumers abstract solar prosumers are about to revolutionize the power sector utilities are challenged in recovering the costs of distribution grids as parts of their revenue basis decreases through self consumption adjusting the grid tariff sets off a reinforcing feedback loop that increases the attractiveness of solar investments but also leads to a distribution effect between solar prosumers and conventional consumers the question is how to recover distribution grid costs equitable without hampering the diffusion of solar power can the two criteria be fulfilled at the same time or is do we aim for squaring a circle to address this question i present a system dynamics simulation model designed to understand the interactions and assess these competing goals the occurring distribution effect under the volumetric grid tariff with net purchase and sale appears to be rather limited simulation experiments reveal that grid tariff designs strongly influence investments for solar power a capacity tariff can reduce deviations from the cost causation principle of solar prosumers and incentivizes investments in decentralized storage solutions to reduce peak demand nevertheless also the capacity tariff causes a distribution effect

strategic choices for renewable energy investment conceptual framework and opportunities for further research this paper introduces the special issue on strategic choices for renewable energy investment which is a collection of best papers presented at an international research conference held in st gallen switzerland in february 2010 substantial private investment is needed if public policy objectives to increase the share of renewable energy and prevent dangerous anthropogenic climate change are to be achieved the aim of this paper and the entire special issue is to draw scholarly attention to the processes underlying strategic choices for renewable energy investment and how they are influenced by energy policy we disentangle the role of risk return perceptions portfolio effects and path dependence in explaining energy investment decisions and suggest that the heterogeneous universe of investors requires a segmentation of policies the paper outlines some of the rich opportunities for further research in this emerging area

asian growth and trade poles india china and east and southeast asia summary using a global general equilibrium trade model this study analyzes the impact on developing countries of 1 the dramatic expansion of trade by india china and an integrated east and southeast e se asia trade bloc and 2 productivity growth in the region china is an integral member of the e se asia bloc with strong links through value chains and trade in intermediate inputs while india is not a part of any trade bloc the analyses consider the importance of their different degrees of integration into regional and global economies focusing on potential complementarities and competition with other developing countries

social acceptance of renewable energy innovation an introduction to the concept this paper introduces the special issue on social acceptance of renewable energy innovation it is a collection of best papers presented at an international research conference held in tramelan switzerland in february 2006 while there are ambitious government targets to increase the share of renewable energy in many countries it is increasingly recognized that social acceptance may be a constraining factor in achieving this target this is particularly apparent in the case of wind energy which has become a subject of contested debates in several countries largely due to its visual impact on landscapes this paper introduces three dimensions of social acceptance namely socio political community and market acceptance factors influencing socio political and community acceptance are increasingly recognized as being important for understanding the apparent contradictions between general public support for renewable energy innovation and the difficult realization of specific projects the third dimension market acceptance has received less attention so far and provides opportunities for further research particularly from management scholars

evidence of public spending crowding out from a panel of oecd countries the empirical relationship between government spending and private investment is examined using a panel of 14 oecd countries the evidence suggests the existence of a significant crowding in effect of private investment by public investment through the positive impact of infrastructure on private investment productivity moreover government consumption appears to crowd out private investment the implications of these results are of foremost importance when it comes to fiscal consolidation deficit reductions engineered through cuts in public investment could severely impinge on private capital accumulation and growth prospects

trade policy issues in a small african economy the trade policy review of the gambia 2004 the gambia displays many of the classic characteristics of a small open economy with the vulnerabilities that implies the sum of its imports and exports are around 100 per cent of gdp with a limited number of export commodities and a wide variety of imports including some key staple foods the trade policy review of the gambia 2004 provides a very helpful review and assessment of current trade patterns and policies the latter rely predominantly on import and export taxes while quite substantial trade reform measures have been implemented recently these have led to only a very small reduction in the average tariff rate and trade policy displays a substantial anti export bias other important issues highlighted by the trade policy review include serious capacity constraints relating to trade policy and a failure to discuss connections between trade policy and growth and poverty reduction again common characteristics of many small economies

what are retail investors risk return preferences towards renewable energy projects a choice experiment in germany citizens own nearly half the renewable energy generation capacity in germany and have been important drivers of the country s energy transition in contrast to citizens important role in financing renewable energies the energy policy and economics literature has traditionally focused on other investors such as incumbent energy firms to close this gap this paper reports on a large scale survey of 1 990 german retail investors conducting a choice experiment with the subset of 1 041 respondents who expressed an interest in investing in community renewable energy projects we present a unique dataset allowing for new insights in risk return expectations of retail investors we find that apart from return on investment respondents are particularly sensitive to the minimum holding period and the issuer of community renewable energy investment offerings a minimum holding period of 10 years implies a risk premium of 2 76 points a subsequent segmentation analysis shows that two groups of potential community renewable energy investors with different risk return expectations can be identified local patriots and yield investors in contrast to professional investors a majority of retail investors use simple decision rules such as calculating payback time or relying on their gut feeling when making investments

investment trade liberalisation and structural adjustment the disappointing investment response in developing countries to world bank structural adjustment lending sals is considered in the light of a theoretical model of the impact of trade liberalisation and tightening balance of payments constraints on investment the policy reforms under sals are not as conducive to increased investment as they may appear to be at first sight the tendency of countries to apply for sals when confronted with serious balance of payments disequilibrium is also an important factor however there is no evidence that sals are associated with a downward shift in the investment function

escaping carbon lock in this article explores the climate policy implications of the arguments made in understanding carbon lock in unruh 2000 which posited that industrial countries have become locked into fossil fuel based energy systems through path dependent processes driven by increasing returns to scale carbon lock in arises through technological organizational social and institutional co evolution culminating in what was termed as techno institutional complex tic in order to resolve the climate problem an escape from the lock in condition is required however due to the self referential nature of tic escape conditions are unlikely to be generated internally and it is argued here that exogenous forces are probably required

us consumers willingness to pay for green electricity abstract we analyze us consumers demand for environmental attributes of deregulated residential electricity services using results from a survey designed to elicit consumers willingness to pay for such attributes and using results from a hedonic analysis of actual price premiums charged for green electricity in several deregulated markets survey results suggest that many population segments are willing to pay for decreased air emissions even if there is no alteration in fuel source furthermore several groups are willing to pay significantly more when emissions reductions stem from increased reliance upon renewable fuels the hedonic analysis suggests that several product features not considered in the survey help explain real price premiums including fuel mix from newly created renewable generation capacity green e certification brand name and state of offer while survey and hedonic results are not easily compared due to limitations of the survey both point to similar values for key environmental attributes though the survey results are likely to overstate actual willingness to pay in sum the results suggest that consumer driven purchases can in part support the future of renewable generation capacity in the united states though reliance upon other policy alternatives may be needed if energy prices spike

has recovery begun africa s adjustment in the 1980s revisited this article reviews the 1989 debate between the world bank and the economic commission for africa over africa s adjustment and on the basis of most recent statistics concludes that there is little evidence that the region is in throes of a recovery some countries however did relatively better than others in the 1980s and an attempt is made to account for differences in performance it is concluded that success in adjustment results not from world bank international monetary fund programs as such but rather from policy coherence accompanied by healthy movement in key variables namely the real exchange rate and public development expenditure

trade policy adjustment in ldcs a short run view the article deals with the role of tariff protection and exchange rate policies in ldcs after a terms of trade shock has occurred and a new equilibrium is to be attained constraints concerning the domestic foreign and public sectors are specified it is shown that the optimal response to the shock depends on the domestic features of the economy as well as on its trade openness in particular protectionist attitudes may well be justified and anti trade policies may be helpful to ease adjustment

governance and real estate markets performance in nigeria are they related governance has been identified as a key determining variable capable of influencing the performance of any economy activity on this note the study undertakes to investigate the relationship between governance and the real estate markets performance in nigeria the study employs ardl methodology of bound testing approach for the quarterly series spanning 1996q1 to 2010q4 of the variables considered the prominent role of real gdp and governance index were clearly brought to fore both in the short and long run while that of inflation and interest rates were less pronounced statistically the result of ecm further accentuates connection between governance and the real estate market through the establishment a stable long run relationship between them in the final analysis a few policy prescriptions are advice for the attention of all stakeholders in the built environment

liberalization and the terms of trade in turkey a causal analysis there has been extensive trade liberalization in developing countries in recent decades several liberalization episodes have been completed in turkey in this paper we evaluate the relationship between trade liberalization in turkey and the terms of trade has liberalization preceded changes in the terms of trade or vice versa using causality analysis we investigate several hypotheses and conclude that in this case trade liberalization follows a terms of trade change a finding which is consistent with the trade shocks hypothesis

assessing indirect tax reform in a tourism dependent developing country summary the paper investigates the effects of reform of the current structure of indirect taxes in mauritius a relatively tourism dependent economy it uses a computable general equilibrium model to explore the relative efficiency of changing sales tax rates on tourism and nontourism related sectors and allowing for equity considerations the efficiency of tax reforms are also distinguished for cases where tourist arrivals are exogenously set and where they endogenously adjust to changes in relative prices the simulation results show that the tourism sectors are currently undertaxed additionally taxing tourism sectors is found to be the most socially efficient means of raising tax revenue

confiscation by the ruler the rise and fall of jewish lending in the middle ages he power to confiscate is a mixed blessing a ruler who is truly absolute can confiscate from his subjects at will in practice however no ruler is as absolute as the term implies for example a ruler may have to forgo investment projects that would otherwise increase his wealth because his subjects fearing confiscation are reluctant to deal with him and because he is not absolute enough to costlessly force subjects to do so this problem is especially acute when the ruler stands to gain by borrowing from his subjects as bulow and rogoff show a debtor who cannot be penalized for repudiating his debt will repudiate 1 obviously the same applies to an absolute ruler as veitch points out however he will not necessarily repudiate at his first opportunity 2 as long as he expects his future borrowing to exceed his interest payments he gains by waiting what veitch fails to realize is that no lender can operate indefinitely on such a basis and consequently that the ruler will repudiate when the present value of his debt is maximized since repudiation is inevitable it might seem that an absolute ruler would be unable to find willing lenders loans are often repudiated for the more prosaic reason that borrowers lack adequate resources at repayment time lenders may try to avert this outcome by lending only to borrowers who demonstrate that they will be

green energy market development in germany effective public policy and emerging customer demand this paper reviews the development of renewable energy in germany from 1973 to 2003 it investigates the relative importance of energy policy and green power marketing in shaping the renewable energy market more than a decade of consistent policy support for renewables under the feed in law streg and its successor eeg has been an important driver for increasing renewable electricity generation to date putting the country in a better position than most of its peers when it comes to achieving european union targets for renewable energy green power marketing driven by customer demand on the other hand is growing but has had limited measurable impact so far we discuss potential intangible benefits of green power marketing and scenarios for future market development the paper concludes with lessons that can be learned from the german case for policy design and market development in other countries

macroeconomic uncertainty and private investment abstract this paper provides empirical support for a link between macroeconomic uncertainty and private investment in developing countries cross section regressions with constructed measures of uncertainty confirm that for developing countries uncertainty is negatively correlated with private investment

the catalytic effect of lending by the international financial institutions for many less developed countries ldcs and countries in transition cits external financing is frequently an effective constraint on economic growth and development capital inflows may be used to overcome shortages of domestic saving thereby permitting higher levels of investment as well as shortages of foreign exchange thereby permitting larger quantities of imports

the price of policy risk empirical insights from choice experiments with european photovoltaic project developers managing the transition to a renewable energy future is an important policy priority in many countries solar photovoltaic pv technology is expected to make an important contribution but due to relatively higher cost its growth to date has been largely driven by public policy notably feed in tariffs feed in tariffs have been implemented in various countries however with widely differing outcomes in terms of installed pv capacity previous research indicates that the level of policy risk may be an important driver for differences in renewable energy policy effectiveness more specifically we suggest that investors who take a decision between pv investment opportunities in different countries carefully weigh feed in tariff induced returns against a set of policy risks and choose the country with the most favorable risk return profile we empirically test this model based on a stated preference survey among european pv project developers consisting of 1575 choice decisions by 63 investors the findings of our study demonstrate that risk matters in pv policy design and that a price tag can be attached to specific policy risks such as the duration of administrative processes or uncertainty induced by an approaching capacity cap governments can build on our empirical results to design policies that will be effective in attracting private pv investment while at the same time maintaining efficiency by providing an adequate compensation for policy risk

fiscal dependence on trade taxes and economic development additional results and a reconciliation of the empirical evidence using brazilian data spanning the period 1910 75 new evidence is presented on the hypothesis that a country s fiscal dependence on trade taxes is inversely related to her level of economic development at least once the latter passes a certain threshold unlike previous studies this study uses methods which highlight the dynamic and temporal nature of the underlying relationships the results indicate strong support for the hypothesis and also suggest that the conflicting time serious evidence can be reconciled

modeling private investment in egypt abstract this paper presents an empirical model of private investment that takes into account certain features of a developing economy such as the oligopolistic structure of markets putty clay technology the inelastic supply of non traded capital goods and financial repression the model is tested on egyptian data using error correction and cointegration the results for egypt indicate that at the macroeconomic level private investment depends on mark ups internal financing demand and the cost of investment goods defined not as the interest rate but as the outcome of the interaction of supply and demand in the market for capital goods the effects of government policy on private investment are mixed with some evidence of crowding out in credit markets and of crowding in as a result of government investment in infrastructure

fiscal dependence on trade taxes and the level of economic development a comment 1993 fiscal dependence on trade taxes and the level of economic development a comment applied economics vol 25 no 11 pp 1393 1397

determinants of private investment in developing countries this paper examines a modified version of the flexible accelerator theory of investment with particular reference to developing countries the empirical results for five countries tend to confirm that government investment the change in bank credit to the private sector and capital inflow to the private sector play important roles in determining private investment the contributory effect and the crowding out effect of government investment are assessed within the context of a recursive model

the origins of democracy a model with application to ancient greece abstract this paper seeks to provide an improved understanding of the origins of democracy it begins by developing a theoretical model to demonstrate how exogenous economic conditions can influence the incentives to establish democratic institutions the model predicts that democratic institutions will expand where they mitigate important time inconsistency problems and therefore encourage investment exogenous conditions determine the magnitude of those time inconsistency problems and hence the likelihood of democracy a comparison of ancient greek city states suggests that the conditions under which democracy first emerged support the model other potential applications are discussed

institutions and casinos on american indian reservations an empirical analysis of the location of indian casinos abstractthis paper empirically investigates the institutional determinants of whether a tribal government invests in a casino i find that the presence of indian casinos is strongly related to plausibly exogenous variation in reservations legal and political institutions tribal governments that can negotiate gaming compacts with multiple state governments because tribal lands span state borders had more than twice the estimated probability 77 versus 32 of operating an indian casino in 1999 tribal governments of reservations where contracts are adjudicated in state courts rather than tribal courts have more than twice the estimated probability 76 versus 34 of investing in an indian casino ceteris paribus these findings suggest that states political pressures and predictable judiciaries affect incentives to invest in casinos this study contributes more generally to the empirical literature on the effects of institutions by providing new evidence that low cost contracting is important fo

international and domestic collateral constraints in a model of emerging market crises abstract we build a model of emerging markets crises which features two types of collateral constraints firms in a domestic economy have limited borrowing capacity from international investors they also have limited borrowing capacity with respect to each other we study how the presence and changes in these collateral constraints affect financial and real variables a binding international constraint in the aggregate leads to a sharp rise in interest rates and fire sales of domestic assets while limited domestic collateral can lead to wasted international collateral these two collateral constraints can interact in important ways the first is disintermediation a fire sale of domestic assets causes banks to fail in their function of reallocating resources across the economy leading to wasted international collateral the second is a dynamic effect we show that firms in an economy with limited domestic collateral and a binding international collateral constraint will not adequately precaution against adverse shocks increasing the severity of these shocks

portfolio capital flows hot or cold a distinction is often made between short term and long term capital flows the former are deemed unstable hot money and the latter are deemed stable cold money using time series analysis of balance of payments data for five industrial and five developing countries we find that in most cases the labels short term and long term do not provide any information about the time series properties of the flow in particular long term flows are often as volatile as short term flows and the time it takes for an unexpected shock to a flow to die out is similar across flows long term flows are also at least as unpredictable as short term flows and knowledge of the type of flow does not improve the ability to forecast the aggregate capital account copyright 1995 by oxford university press

sri lanka s trade policy reverting to dirigisme the paper surveys recent development in sri lankan trade policy with an emphasis on emerging protectionist tendencies using sri lanka s trade policy review 2010 by the world trade organisation as a reference point the sri lankan experience for over the three decades following the liberalisation reforms stated in 1977 has clearly demonstrated that an outward oriented policy regime can yield a superior development outcome compared to a closed economy regime even under severe strains of a protracted ethnic conflict and macroeconomic instability viewed against this backdrop recent developments in the sri lankan policy scene do not seem to augur well for the future of the sri lankan economy

the design of fiscal reforms in revenue constrained developing countries while generalisation is perilous there are many especially small developing countries for which sales taxes and turnover taxes are fairly negligible as revenue sources and for which import duties and export taxes particularly the former are leading revenue sources for evidence from the early i980s see tanzi i987 and greenaway and milner i990 this observation is unsurprising when account is taken of the administrative constraints to which many developing countries are subject sales taxes can be difficult to collect not to mention a complex tax like vat income tax is largely infeasible and often has to take a simple form such as a payroll tax confined in practice to public and large company employment some taxes which would be assumed to be eminently feasible in industrial economies may not generate as much revenue as might be supposed in a developing country for instance tax disks which the law may require heavy goods vehicles to carry may generate a flow of bribes to police and other officials if these are wise enough to set the bribe at a modest level making it cheaper to pay bribes than to buy a disk a cynic might say that the bribes are an unofficial source of revenue if their existence enables the state to get away with paying its officials absurdly low salaries one would have to hope if that argument is accepted that the officials do something socially useful apart from stopping heavy goods vehicles such considerations make it interesting to consider the design of public finance for a country severely constrained in its choice of what musgrave called tax handles that is types of tax instrument which it may practically employ the existing literature for which newbery and stern i987 provides an excellent review throws some light on this issue but the problem is seldom treated explicitly an exception would be dreze and stern i985 whose highly abstract and general treatment of cost benefit analysis theory can be seen to incorporate principles of public finance which fully cover the restricted policy choices which i have in mind because the approach of these authors is so general however it is not easy to extract conclusions for tax design in specific cases this is no criticism of the paper of course as the argument is addressed to cost benefit analysis generally speaking theory has developed in the direction of sophisticated and complex tax systems the next section discusses why this is so from the point of view of theory yet ideal tax systems would be difficult to implement in many developing countries as i shall treat tariffs as a highly feasible revenue

the influence of green building certification schemes on real estate investor behaviour evidence from singapore based on an adaptive choice based conjoint analysis the aim of this paper is to ascertain the extent to which various characteristics of a condominium unit and in particular the building and cons

social acceptance of renewable energy sources a review of contingent valuation applications abstract this paper presents a literature review addressing the public acceptance of renewable energy as a replacement for fossil fuels in electricity production this review was motivated by the global tendency for a substitution of conventional fuels by renewable energy sources res during the global financial crisis it studies research on the preferences and attitudes of local communities towards investments in renewable energy projects and their perception of the use of new energy technologies in their daily lives through various case studies worldwide an effort is made to identify the parameters that influence consumers energy behaviour together with their interest or lack thereof in the environmental impact of using fossil fuels to produce energy and their willingness to reduce it applications of contingent valuation are examined which are employed to analyse public attitudes towards the use of res for electricity production willingness to pay is observed to be correlated to socioeconomic characteristics including education interest in environmental issues and knowledge of res finally the profile of a typical green energy consumer and appropriate policy paths for the penetration of res into the energy market are outlined

the gender dimensions of economic adjustment policies potential interactions and evidence to date abstract many developing countries have implemented stabilization and structural adjustment programs over the last 20 years the success of these programs depends critically on individual level responses to changing economic incentives access to control of and an ability to move productive economic resources between sectors is determined in part by gender if an individual s gender impedes their ability to fully participate in the economic adjustment process by inhibiting resource access control or movement adjustment will be impaired this paper discusses the potential gender dimensions of structural adjustment policies and examines the evidence to dale

whatever the customer wants the customer gets exploring the gap between consumer preferences and default electricity products in germany abstract in liberalized electricity markets residential customers can choose their preferred provider and select among a variety of different electricity products including green power options successful product design and marketing strategies for green electricity may provide electricity providers with a competitive advantage while at the same time contributing to energy policy objectives this requires however a thorough understanding of customer preferences we investigate the relative importance of different product attributes in creating customer value and find that price and electricity mix are the two most important attributes the german electricity customers we surveyed in 2009 expressed an implicit willingness to pay a premium of about 16 for electricity from renewable sources we conclude that consumers are willing to pay a significant price premium for an upgrade from the current default electricity mix in germany to a more environmentally friendly default electricity mix and discuss implications for marketing strategy and energy policy our findings are based on a dataset of 4968 experimental choices made by 414 german residential consumers collected in a stated preference survey

liberalising foreign trade through rose tinted glasses the foreign trade sector has a crucial role to play in economic development trade has variously been described as the engine or handmaiden of growth this key role has stimulated a great deal of interest in the links between trade and growth with the links between trade orientation and exports and exports and growth receiving particularly close attention alongside this time series work there have been a number of multi country studies of trade policy in developing countries those of krueger i 98 i and balassa i 982 are perhaps the best known most of this work has been directed at two questions first what does the structure of protection look like in a given developing country second are there clear links between the structure of protection trade orientation and economic performance it is widely believed in developing countries that the major lending agencies the world bank in particular perceive a clear link between trade orientation and economic performance and that this explains why around three quarters ofall conditions which attach to structural adjustment loans sals feature reform of trade policy the editors of liberalising foreign trade demetrious papageorgiou michael michaely and armeane choksi all of whom are on the world bank staff clearly believe this to be the case judging from their opening statement the benefits of open trading have by now been sufficiently demonstrated and described by economic historians and analysts in this study we take them for granted and turn our minds from the whether to the how vol i p vii in other words it is the timing phasing and sequencing involved in the design and implementation of a trade liberalisation policy that forms the subject matter of the present study vol 7 p i liberalising foreign trade is a world bank organised study which describes and evaluates 36 liberalisation episodes in i 9 countries during the period i950 i982 the study is ambitious in scale28 authors 3 editors 7 volumes and almost 3 ooo pages of text it is the most comprehensive cross country analysis of liberalisation episodes undertaken from a policy perspective a study of this scale is potentially of considerable interest given the liberalisations

fiscal dependence on trade taxes and trade policy reform the article focuses on fiscal implications of structural adjustment loans sals from an a priori standpoint and by reference to the experience of five countries three of these countries have had revenue enhancement after trade policy reforms and the other two cases experienced revenue depletion the central point which emerges from the study is that it is not clear that trade liberalisation leads to fiscal enhancement or fiscal depletion both a priori the orising and country analyses demonstrate that a range of outcomes is possible depending upon initial conditions and the components of any reform package

venture capitalists decision policies across three countries an institutional theory perspective this paper examines the influence of economic institutions upon venture capitalists vcs decision policies we conducted policy capturing experiments on 119 vcs across three countries representing distinct economic institutions us mature market economy south korea emerging economy and china transitional economy results show that vcs in rules based market economies us rely upon market information to a greater extent than vcs in emerging economies korea and chinese vcs transitional economy weight human capital factors more heavily than either us or korean vcs findings suggest that although professional institutions may dictate which information is included in vc decision policies the extent to which that information is emphasized is determined partly by the economic institution in which the decision maker operates journal of international business studies 2007 38 691 708 doi 10 1057 palgrave jibs 8400291

a life s work on trade and development this paper reflects on the career contributions of professor chris milner to the literature on international trade and economic development as such it not only provides an overview of a life s work but also sets the context for the nine papers which follow all of these were specially written for this special issue of the world economy and all relate to different areas that professor milner worked in

tax revenue instability with particular reference to sub saharan africa this article examines the temporal instability of tax revenues across a sample of developed and less developed countries it is shown that instability is especially high in ldcs and is highest in open economies with low per capita income high output variance and inflationary problems even allowing for these factors revenue instability appears to be particularly high in sub saharan africa revenue instability can be expected via the government budget constraint to be associated with expenditure instability and or instability in the sources of deficit finance cross section evidence for ldcs confirms that countries with high tax revenue instability tend also to have high expenditure instability time series evidence for six african countries however suggests that revenues and expenditures do not move together in a uniform manner and the direction of causality is generally ambiguous there is some evidence however that foreign borrowing is used more to finance expenditure increases than to counteract

what makes people seal the green power deal customer segmentation based on choice experiment in germany abstract consumers have the power to contribute to creating a more sustainable future by subscribing to green electricity tariffs in order to reach consumers beyond the eco niche identifying the drivers that positively influence the adoption of green electricity is of fundamental importance this paper examines various factors that help to explain the extent to which green electricity subscribers differ from those that display strong preferences towards green electricity but have not yet walked the talk by making use of a latent class segmentation analysis based on choice based conjoint data this paper identifies three groups of potential green electricity adopters with varying degrees of preference for renewable energy findings indicate that socio demographic factors play a marginal role in explaining the differences between green electricity subscribers and potential adopters with the exception that actual adopters tend to be better educated analysis of psychographic and behavioral features reveals that adopters tend to perceive consumer effectiveness to be higher place more trust in science tend to estimate lower prices for green electricity tariffs are willing to pay significantly more for other eco friendly products and are more likely to have recently changed their electricity contract than non adopters policy recommendations associated with these findings are provided

financial development and economic growth views and agenda this critique argues that the preponderance of theoretical reasoning and empirical evidence suggests a positive first order relationship between financial development and economic growth the body of work would push even most skeptics toward the belief that the development of financial markets and institutions is a critical and inextricable part of the growth process and away from the view that the financial system is an inconsequential sideshow responding passively to economic growth many gaps remain however and the paper highlights areas in acute need of additional research

who invests in renewable electricity production empirical evidence and suggestions for further research transforming energy systems to fulfill the needs of a low carbon economy requires large investments in renewable electricity production res e recent literature underlines the need to take a closer look at the composition of the res e investor group in order to understand the motives and investment processes of different types of investors however existing energy policies generally consider res e investments made on a regional or national level and target investors who evaluate their res e investments according to least cost high profit criteria we present empirical evidence to show that res e investments are made by a heterogeneous group of investors that a variety of investors exist and that their formation varies among the different types of renewable sources this has direct implications for our understanding of the investment process in res e and for the study of motives and driving forces of res e investors we introduce a multi dimensional framework for analyzing differences between categories of investors which not only considers to the standard economic dimension which is predominant in the contemporary energy literature but also considers the entrepreneurship innovation adoption and institutional dimensions the framework emphasizes the influence of four main investor related factors on the investment process which should be studied in future research motives background resources and personal characteristics