understanding differences in household financial wealth between the united states and great britain in this paper we describe the household wealth distribution in the united states and united kingdom over the past two decades and compare both wealth inequality and the form in which wealth is held unconditionally there are large differences in financial wealth between the two countries at the top fifth of the wealth distribution even after controlling for age and income differences between the two countries we show that the median u s household accumulates more financial wealth than their united kingdom counterpart does we explore a number of alternative reasons for these differences and reject some explanations as implausible some of the observed differences are due to what we refer to as initial conditions in particular previously high rates of corporate equity ownership in the u s and housing ownership among young british households this only provides a partial explanation however among other explanations are differences in the annuitization of retirement incomes and in the amount of wealth held in the form of housing equity in the first case forced and voluntary annuitization in the united kingdom mean older households face considerably less longevity risk in the second higher house price volatility in the united kingdom can create an incentive as shown banks blundell and smith 2002 used from stock market equity earlier in the life cycle

the impact of house prices on consumption in the uk a new perspective this paper proposes an alternative approach to the question of how house prices influence household consumption by focusing on their impact on mortgage equity withdrawal and household saving household level data are used to derive a measure of expected and unexpected changes in house prices these are then incorporated into a recursive bivariate probit model of the decision to withdraw housing equity and save the results suggest that households respond to changes in their housing wealth primarily by increasing their mortgage borrowing rather than by decreasing their savings although this is mainly for younger households however while changes in housing wealth do not have a direct impact on household saving they do have an important indirect impact since they increase the likelihood that the household will withdraw equity which in turn has a negative impact on household saving

a note on taxes and the pricing of treasury bill futures contracts futures contracts in general and treasury bill futures in particular are taxed in a manner that provides individual investors with an apparent opportunity the irs currently considers all futures contracts to be capital assets unlike other capital assets however the holding period for long term gains is six months for futures contracts but only long positions qualify all gains and losses on short positions are short term regardless of the holding period the asymmetrical tax treatment of short and long positions gives individual investors the opportunity to profit at the expense of the government the investor takes a long position in a futures contract with over six months to maturity and holds the position for six months if at that time he has a loss he sells the position recording a short term loss if he has a gain he holds the position another day and records a long term gain by this strategy all gains are taxed as long term gains and all losses are short term the opportunity is even greater in the treasury bill futures market cash treasury bills are not treated as capital assets so that all gains and losses are ordinary to take advantage of this fact the investor takes a long position in a futures contract with over six months to maturity if he has a gain on the last trading day he liquidates his futures contract and records a long term gain if he has a loss he waits until the contract matures and takes delivery of the bills

consumer demand and the life cycle allocation of household expenditures the purpose of this paper is to estimate the parameters of household preferences that determine the allocation of goods within the period and over the life cycle using micro data in doing so the authors are able to identify important effects of demographics labor market status and other household characteristics on the intertemporal allocation of expenditure they test the validity of the life cycle model using excess sensitivity tests and find that controlling for demographics and labor market status variables can largely explain the excess sensitivity of consumption to anticipated changes in income

tax reform and automatic stabilization an income tax provides implicit insurance by dampening the variability of disposable income and consumption using an empirical framework derived from the consumption insurance literature and data from the panel study of income dynamics we examine the effect of federal income tax reforms of the 1980 s on automatic stabilization of consumption overall erta and tra86 reduced consumption stability by about 50 percent recently increased eitc generosity restored or enhanced consumption insurance the welfare cost of moving to the post tra86 system is sizable for relatively risk averse households facing large income risk but is much more modest for the typical household jel h21

household saving micro theories and micro facts in this survey we review the recent theoretical and empirical literature on household saving and consumption the discussion is structured around a list of motives for saving and how well the standard theory captures these motives we show that almost all of the motives for saving that have been suggested in the informal saving literature can be captured in the standard optimizing model particular attention is given to recent work on the precautionary motive and its implications for saving and consumption behavior we also discuss the behavioral or psychological approach that eschews the use of standard optimization techniques and focuses instead on direct consideration on saving we provide a section on facts who save and how much we then discuss informally the recent decline in the u s saving rate and whether the theory is of much use in understanding this and other changes in aggregate saving rates over time we do not find any convincing explanation for the change in saving rates we also discuss some analyses of saving behavior over the life cycle addressing such questions as whether households save enough for retirement and whether the consumption patterns of older households can be rationalized within a simple life cycle model we also review a great number of studies of the consumption euler equations based on our analysis of the studies cited we conclude that there is still mixed evidence that consumption is excessively sensitive to income we also examine in depth the recent empirical literature on the precautionary motive we conclude that although some households do seem to have a significant precautionary motive at some points in their life cycle this motive is not so strong empirically as some investigators suggest

connections to distant knowledge interpersonal ties between more and less developed countries less developed countries benefit from being connected to technologically and economically advanced countries the well documented mechanisms for this cross national flow of knowledge all involve interfirm connections such as trade foreign direct investment fdi and alliances we examine the potential of a different mechanism interpersonal ties abroad that has only recently become practicable owing to advances in communication and transportation technologies globalization and increased migration we investigate when business knowledge obtained from interpersonal ties in more developed countries is more useful than locally sourced knowledge using a sample of south african managers we find that knowledge from more developed countries is not always more useful rather overseas knowledge is preferable when novel and accessible that is when new to the industry knowledge is needed when there is already a strong tie and when the knowledge does not involve a long discussion conversely local knowledge is preferable when new to the industry knowledge is not needed when the interpersonal tie is a weak tie and when a longer discussion is warranted this study demonstrates the value of connections between individuals in countries at different levels of development as sources of useful knowledge and suggests that international business research will benefit from exploring further the networks of individuals in addition to those of firms

patterns of internationalisation of corporate technology location vs home country advantages given the trends towards increasing globalisation of markets and of production the globalisation of technology remains a subject of considerable interest to analysts and policy makers in the 1990s this paper provides some new empirical observations for debate and discussion on the patterns of technological activities of large firms outside their home countries it is based on a systematic analysis of the us patenting activities of 220 of the most internationalised firms in terms of their technology in the 1990s although firms are active outside their home countries in the high technology fields such as computers pharmaceuticals telecommunications image and sound and materials quite a sizeable proportion of their foreign activities are concerned with process and machinery technologies moreover a comparison of the technological advantage of the company at home and the advantage of the location shows that in a large majority of cases firms tend to locate their technology abroad in their core areas where they are strong at home these results suggest that adapting products and processes and materials to suit foreign markets and providing technical support to off shore manufacturing plants remain major factors underlying the internationalisation of technology they are also consistent with the notion that firms are increasingly engaging in small scale activities to monitor and scan new technological developments in centres of excellence in foreign countries within their areas of existing strength however there is little evidence to suggest that even these most internationalised firms routinely go abroad to compensate for their weakness at home

precautionary behavior migrant networks and household consumption decisions an empirical analysis using household panel data from rural china abstract we develop a test of precautionary behavior in the consumption decisions of rural agricultural households among surveyed households facing a median level of consumption risk 10 of savings can be attributed to a precautionary motive and this increases to 15 for households with consumption per capita below the poverty line we next use distant lags of local rainfall shocks uncorrelated with current consumption growth to identify the size of migrant networks outside the village and then present evidence that both poor and nonpoor households engage in less precautionary saving as the size of the village migrant network increases

risk and insurance in a rural credit market an empirical investigation in northern nigeria credit contracts play a direct role in pooling risk between households in northern nigeria repayments owed by borrowers depend on realizations of random shocks by both borrowers and lenders the paper develops two models of state contingent loans the first is a competitive equilibrium in perfectly enforceable contracts the second permits imperfect information and equilibrium default estimates of both models indicate that quantitatively important state contingent payments are embedded in these loan transactions but that a fully efficient risk pooling equilibrium is not achieved the research is based on a year long survey in zaria nigeria conducted by the author

employing financial futures to increase the return on near cash treasury bill investments the purpose of this article is to formulate and test a decision model to increase the return on a pool of liquid assets through the use of treasury bill futures contracts recent literature has documented inefficiencies in the pricing of t bill futures these inefficiencies can be exploited to increase the return on a portfolio of t bills without affecting the maturity of the portfolio the solution technique used is dynamic programming the results of applying a dynamic programming algorithm parameterized on available data to trade in real time are presented the rules lead to increased returns

precautionary saving under liquidity constraints evidence from rural pakistan this paper investigates precautionary saving under liquidity constraints in pakistan using household panel data in particular while we estimates kimball s 1990 prudence parameter we deviate from dynan s 1993 framework by explicitly considering liquidity constraints as in zeldes 1989 by doing so we attempt to differentiate the standard precautionary saving caused by uncertainty from the one due to liquidity constraints furthermore endogenous liquidity constraints are considered to resolve issues of selection biases in this study we document substantial evidence of the presence of precautionary saving in pakistan more specifically the estimated prudence is significantly higher for liquidity constrained households as compared with unconstrained ones the results support the emerging view that facilitating saving may often be more important than finding better ways of lending to the poor

did household consumption become more volatile i show that after accounting for predictable variation arising from movements in real interest rates preferences and income shocks liquidity constraints and measurement errors volatility of household consumption in the us increased by 25 percent between 1970 and 2004 the increase was lower than that of volatility of family income nonwhite and those with less than 13 years of education for whom there was no differential increase in income volatility experienced a significantly larger increase in volatility of household consumption substantial differences in wealth and access to credit markets point to the main reason for this divide jel d12 d14 e21 j15

the degree of precautionary saving a reexamination abstract extending dynan s methodology dynan k 1993 how prudent are consumers journal of political economy 101 1104 1113 we show that a significant fraction of the prudence parameter puzzle can be explained by a downward omitted variable bias further the estimated prudence is substantially higher for liquidity constrained households

do migrants really save more understanding the impact of remittances on savings in rural china abstract this article studies the impact of remittances on the savings behaviour of rural households in china using a primary survey undertaken by the authors in 2006 allowing for endogeneity and left censoring of remittances we find that the marginal propensity to save out of remittances is well below half of that out of other sources of incomes moreover we find no evidence of any direct effect of remittances on either capital input or gross output of farm production these findings are robust with respect to alternative definition of savings and are in line with recent studies which conclude that remittances are largely used for consumption purposes by rural chinese households

relative wage movements and the distribution of consumption we analyze how relative wage movements among birth cohorts and education groups affected the distribution of household consumption and economic welfare our empirical work draws on the best available cross sectional data sets to construct synthetic panel data on u s consumption labor supply and wages during the 1980s we find that low frequency movements in the cohort education structure of pretax hourly wages among men drove large changes in the distribution of household consumption the results constitute a spectacular failure of between group consumption insurance a failure not explained by existing theories of informationally constrained optimal consumption behavior a welfare analysis indicates that the cost of between group consumption variability is larger than the cost of aggregate consumption variability by two orders of magnitude

using repeated cross sections to explore movements into and out of poverty movements in and out of poverty are of core interest to both policymakers and economists yet the panel data needed to analyze such movements are rare in this paper the authors build on the methodology used to construct poverty maps to show how repeated cross sections of household survey data can allow inferences to be made about movements in and out of poverty they illustrate that the method permits the estimation of bounds on mobility and provide non parametric and parametric approaches to obtaining these bounds they test how well the method works on data sets for vietnam and indonesia where we are able to compare our method to true panel estimates the results are sufficiently encouraging to offer the prospect of some limited basic insights into mobility and poverty duration in settings where historically it was judged that the data necessary for such analysis were unavailable

trends in foreign direct investment flows a theoretical and empirical analysis this paper seeks to provide a rationale for changing trends in the flow and determinants of foreign direct investment fdi as a result of macro economic and firm strategy considerations we identify several factors that impact on such trends and develop propositions that could explain the phenomenon generically the study then provides preliminary empirical support for the propositions presented and outlines the path for further research needed to investigate more causal links the statistical analysis of investments by us multinational enterprises mnes reveals significant changes in the regional distribution of fdi and a change in some of its traditional determinants results show that us mnes are now making increasing investments into asia to exploit low wage levels and to secure entry into new markets

risk pooling precautionary saving and consumption growth in this paper we model the evolution of income risk and consumption growth we decompose the time series innovation of the income process into its common and cohort specific components from these we compute conditional variances which are used as separate risk terms in a consumption growth equation using a long series of british household data we exploit the time series variation to identify precautionary saving effects and find strong evidence of their importance specifically after allowing for demographic and labour market status there is an independent role for income risk in explaining consumption growth rather than the component that is common across cohorts however it is the cohort specific element that is important in determining changes in consumption growth this result points to a failure of between cohort insurance mechanisms

precautionary saving a review of the empirical literature standard macroeconomic models show that uncertainty plays a significant role in consumption and saving decisions under rather mild conditions namely the convexity of the marginal utility of consumption increased uncertainty generates a positive extra saving the so called precautionary saving although this hypothesis has been tested by a large number of authors both at macro and micro level the empirical results are not conclusive and the main conclusion than can be drawn is that there is neither consensus on the intensity of that motive for saving nor on the most appropriate measure of uncertainty this paper provides a comprehensive review of the empirical literature discussing the main controversial issues and the different approaches followed by the studies addressing empirically the test of precautionary saving

non parametric analysis of poverty duration using repeated cross section an application for peru abstractusing repeated cross section annual data for peru spanning 2002 2011 and non parametric duration analysis our estimates support the hypothesis that both stay in and exit from poverty non poverty depends on the duration and sequence of poverty non poverty spells we find that longer periods in poverty reduce the probability of leaving poverty and conversely longer periods spent out of poverty reduce the chance of falling back into poverty also we show that at least in the last decade of high economic growth the probability of staying in poverty was lower than staying in non poverty and the probability of re entering in poverty was higher than re entering in non poverty being both differences growing with the number of accumulated spells past experiences of poverty and non poverty seem to be essential to predict the future status of poverty

deception and misreporting in a social program we investigate empirically the extent of misreporting in a poverty alleviation program in which self reported information followed by a household visit is used to determine eligibility in the model we propose and estimate underreporting may be due to a deception motive and overreporting to an embarrassment motive we find that underreporting of goods and desirable home characteristics is widespread and that overreporting is common with respect to goods linked to social status larger program benefits encourage underreporting and discourage overreporting we also estimate the costs of lying and embarrassment for different goods and show that the embarrassment cost for lacking a good is proportional to the percentage of households who own the good jel d01 i32 i38 c25

firm related risk and precautionary saving response we propose a new approach to identify the strength of the precautionary motive and the extent of self insurance in response to earnings risk based on euler equation estimates to address endogeneity problems we use norwegian administrative data and instrument consumption and earnings volatility with the variance of firm specific shocks the instrument is valid because firms pass some of their productivity shocks onto wages moreover for most workers firm shocks are hard to avoid our estimates suggest a coefficient of relative prudence of 2 in a very plausible range

how does future income affect current consumption this paper tests a straightforward implication of the basic life cycle model of consumption that current consumption depends on expected lifetime income the paper projects future income for a panel of households and finds that consumption is closely related to projected current income but unrelated to predictable changes in income however future income uncertainty has an important effect consumers facing greater income uncertainty consume less the results are consistent with buffer stock models of consumption like those of deaton 1991 or carroll 1992a 1992b where precautionary motives greatly reduce the willingness of prudent consumers to consume out of uncertain future income

precautionary savings and the permanent income hypothesis this paper derives the explicit solution of a dynamic stochastic optimal consumption problem for infinitely lived agents whose preferences exhibit in the presence of non diversifiable labour income uncertainty a constant elasticity of intertemporal substitution and constant absolute risk aversion the constancy of the elasticity of intertemporal substitution which implies that marginal utility at zero consumption is infinite guarantees that the non negativity constraint on consumption is never binding along the optimal path the assumption of constant absolute risk aversion allows an explicit computation of human wealth and provides a simple representation of the precautionary savings motive

the impact of income shocks on health evidence from cohort data we study the eect of permanent income innovations on health for a prime aged population using information on more than half a million individuals sampled over a twenty five year period in three dierent cross sectional surveys we aggregate data by date of birth cohort to construct a synthetic cohort dataset with details of income expenditure socio demographic factors health outcomes and selected risk factors we then exploit structural and arguably exogenous changes in cohort incomes over the eighties and nineties to uncover causal eects of permanent income shocks on health we find that such income innovations have little eects on health but do aect health behaviour and mortality

consumption inequality and income uncertainty this paper places the debate over using consumption or income in studies of inequality growth in a formal intertemporal setting it highlights the importance of permanent and transitory income uncertainty in the evaluation of growth in consumption inequality we derive conditions under which the growth of variances and covariances of income and consumption can be used to separately identify the growth in the variance of permanent and transitory income shocks household data from britain for the period 1968 1992 are used to show a strong growth in transitory inequality toward the end of this period while younger cohorts are shown to face significantly higher levels of permanent inequality

intra day tests of the efficiency of the treasury bill futures market in this paper we use intra day prices to examine the efficiency of the treasury bill futures market the use of intra day data allows us to carefully match in time trades in the futures and cash markets by matching trades and allowing delays between observing apparent inefficiencies and the trade we are examining realistic trading strategies we find profitable arbitrage swaps and a preferred strategy for initial purchase these profits do not depend on an assumption of an equilibrium model hence these tests are direct tests of efficiency rather than a joint test of efficiency and equilibrium t his paper examines the efficiency of the treasury bill futures market this subject has been examined before by capozza and cornell 1979 cornell 1981 lang and rasche 1978 rendleman and carabini 1979 vignola and dale 1979 poole 1978 and puglisi 1978 there are a number of reasons why this paper makes an important contribution to the literature the first reason is that by using trade by trade futures prices we can make more realistic assumptions about the pnces at which trades could have taken place this paper uses intra day prices to examine efficiency prior studies at best used closing prices to examine apparent inefficiencies and assumed that transactions took place at these closing prices there are two problems with this procedure first simultaneous transactions cannot actually occur at closing prices there is almost an hour difference between the closing of the chicago futures and new york spot markets thus when the closing spot market price is observed the futures market has been closed for about an hour closing prices could be used to judge apparent discrepancies however it would be necessary to execute trades at the open making decisions based on closing prices and then assuming trades can take place at these prices is an approximation which could significantly affect results in addition using only closing prices ignores any intra day trades which could lead to profits in this study we match in time intra day prices in the spot and futures market these matched prices are used to identify apparently profitable trading rules we then assume trades take place at prices which are observed later in the day this is a test of a trading rule which an investor could actually follow as we discuss later in the paper our results differ from prior studies these differences are primarily due to using intra day prices and carefully matching times so that information used to initiate trades would actually be available to the investor at the time of the trade the second reason is that we examine more complex trading strategies than those which have been employed in other studies the random walk literature provides a useful analogy the original random walk studies simply correlated past and future prices or returns later studies examined filter rules and other more complicated trading rules in this study we employ alternative trading rules of increased complexity to test for the existence of trading profits finally we explicitly examine the consequence of t bills futures contracts being futures rather than forward contracts futures contracts unlike forward contracts involve flows every settlement day the intermediate cash flows on futures contracts can affect the profitability of any strategy the only prior study that even considered this effect is the one by rendleman and carabini 1979 they used the theoretical model of cox ingersoll and ross 1981 to try to estimate whether the difference between forward and futures prices was likely to be large enough to affect the payoff from alternative trading strategies this is a useful first attempt however ultimately the effect of daily settlement or marking to the market has to be examined directly as part of trading strategies to see if it affects the outcome of these strategies there are other problems with prior studies these involve gross estimates of prices and averaging data in a way that can mask inefficiencies since these problems are discussed in some detail in rendleman and carabini there is no reason to review them further here probably no area in finance has received more attention than the efficiency literature the reader may well wonder why even given the approximareceived for publication august 23 1982 revision accepted for publication may 20 1983 new york university new york university and baruch college respectively the authors would like to thank the center for the study of futures markets at columbia business school for financial support

technology sourcing versus technology exploitation an analysis of us foreign direct investment flows the traditional paradigm of foreign direct investment fdi suggests that fdi is undertaken principally to exploit some firm specific advantage in a foreign country which provides a locational advantage to the investor however recent theoretical work suggests a model of fdi in which the motivation is not to exploit existing technological advantages in a foreign country but to access such technology and transfer it from the host economy to the investing multinational corporation via spillover effects this paper tests the technology sourcing versus technology exploiting hypotheses for a panel of sectoral fdi flows between the united states and major oecd nations over a 15 year period the research makes use of patel and vega s research policy 28 145 55 1999 taxonomy of sectors which are likely a priori to exhibit technology sourcing and exploiting behaviour respectively while there is evidence that fdi flows into the united states are attracted to r and d intensive sectors very little support is found for the technology sourcing hypothesis either for inward or outward fdi flows the results suggest that in aggregate firm specific ownership effects remain powerful determinants of fdi flows

linking fdi motivation and host economy productivity effects conceptual and empirical analysis we develop a taxonomy that relates foreign direct investment fdi motivation technology and cost based to its anticipated effects on host countries domestic productivity we then empirically examine the effects of fdi into the united kingdom on domestic productivity and find that different types of fdi have markedly different productivity spillover effects which are consistent with the conceptual analysis the uk gains substantially only from inward fdi motivated by a strong technology based ownership advantage as theory predicts inward fdi motivated by technology sourcing considerations leads to no productivity spillovers

the returns to foreign r d extant research on research and development r d internationalization has not examined how effective foreign r d investments are in generating positive returns for the investing firms in particular in comparison and conjunction with the effects of domestic r d investments we examine the effectiveness of international knowledge sourcing through foreign r d in an empirical analysis of the productivity effects of foreign and domestic r d investments in a large panel of firms based in the netherlands we argue that foreign and domestic r d will exhibit complementarity in their effects on productivity but that the roles of domestic and foreign r d depend on the relative position of the home country with respect to the global technology frontier and the related relative opportunities for knowledge sourcing abroad we estimate a dynamic panel data model derived from a knowledge stock augmented production function framework allowing for productivity convergence and declining returns to r d we confirm that for firms active in industries in which the home country is behind the global technology frontier foreign r d provides positive returns and has a complementary relationship with domestic r d for industries at the global technology frontier in contrast domestic r d is the primary source of productivity growth

wage risk and employment risk over the life cycle we specify a structural life cycle model of consumption labour supply and job mobility in an economy with search frictions that allows us to distinguish between different sources of risk and to estimate their effects the sources of risk are shocks to productivity job destruction the process of job arrival when employed and unemployed and match level heterogeneity our model allows for four main social insurance programmes in contrast to simpler models that attribute all income fluctuations to shocks our framework allows us to disentangle the effects of the shocks from the responses to these shocks estimates of productivity risk once we control for employment risk and for individual labour supply choices are substantially lower than estimates that attribute all wage variation to productivity risk increases in productivity risk impose a considerable welfare loss on individuals and induce substantial precautionary saving increases in employment risk have large effects on output and primarily through this channel affect welfare the welfare value of government programs such as food stamps which partially insure productivity risk is greater than the value of unemployment insurance which provides partial insurance against employment risk and no insurance against persistent shocks

consumption and the timing of income risk abstract when formulating a plan for savings does the timing of income risks matter should one be concerned with whether uncertainty in income is in the near term or the distant future of course and the impact of the timing of income risk is the subject of this article using a three period framework we provide approximate solutions for optimal consumption choices for preferences that display constant relative risk aversion and derive the relationship between innovations to income and innovations to consumption growth these results are contrasted with those for quadratic preferences and preferences that display constant absolute risk aversion we analyze consumption saving plans for several different situations of near term and distant future income risk and different kinds of preferences we conclude with a demonstration of the high degree of accuracy of our consumption approximations by comparing them to exact values computed by stochastic simulation

disability insurance and the dynamics of the incentive insurance trade off we provide a life cycle framework for comparing insurance and disincentive effects of disability benefits the risks that individuals face and the parameters of the disability insurance di program are estimated from consumption health disability insurance and wage data we characterize the effects of disability insurance and study how policy reforms impact behavior and welfare di features high rejection rates of disabled applicants and some acceptance of healthy applicants despite worse incentives welfare increases as programs become less strict or generosity increases disability insurance interacts with welfare programs making unconditional means tested programs more generous improves disability insurance targeting and increases welfare

balancing subsidiary influence in the federative mnc a business network view the contest for intra organisational power in the multinational corporation mnc has gradually become a prominent issue on the research agenda as long as 25 years ago hedlund 1980 investigated the strategic roles of subsidiaries in mncs and doz and prahalad 1981 raised the issue of how difficult it is for headquarters to remain in control of its subsidiaries and to influence their strategies over time since then several researchers have suggested that mncs can be considered to be dispersed structures of power in which the top management s authority does not necessarily result in hierarchical power being the ultimate control mechanism hedlund 1986 forsgren 1989 ghoshal and bartlett 1990 doz and prahalad 1993 ferner and edwards 1995 kristensen and zeitlin 2001 morgan and whitley 2003 birkinshaw and hood 1998 examined the evolution of capabilities at the subsidiary level and recognised that in most corporations there is an internal competition for charter that implies a process of change in subsidiary roles birkinshaw and hood 1998 782 case research has also indicated that changes in the charters of divisions or subsidiaries in mncs constitute a strong feature of horizontal or vertical competition in the corporate marketplace galunic and eisenhardt 1996 birkinshaw and fry 1998 the tension between the headquarters and overseas laboratories caused by the laboratories desire for autonomy and influence is an example of such a competition asaka wa 2001

consumption puzzles and precautionary savings abstract when marginal utility is convex agents accumulate savings as a precautionary measure against labor income eventualities this paper shows that precautionary savings can go a long way in making the excess growth excess smoothness and excess sensitivity features of consumption consistent with the stochastic processes of labor income observed in the u s at the microeconomic level

agreeing on efficient emissions reduction we propose a simple contest based mechanism providing incentives to reduce harmful emissions to their efficient level without infringing upon productive efficiency participation in the most stylized form of the scheme is voluntary and individually rational all rules are mutually agreeable and are unanimously adopted if proposed the scheme balances its budget and requires no principal in a perhaps more realistic stochastic output version which could potentially inform policy decisions we show that the transfers required by the efficient mechanism create a mutual insurance motive that can serve as an effective rationale for the gradual formation of international environmental agreements

consumption beyond certainty equivalence this paper discusses the recent research on the consumption function that has attempted to relax the assumption of certainty equivalence while there remain many open questions both theoretical and empirical it is clear that the assumption of certainty equivalence can be misleading under more plausible specifications of preferences toward risk uncertainty lowers the level of consumption increases the expected rate of growth of consumption and increases the response of consumption to news about income moreover changes in the amount of uncertainty are a potentially important source of fluctuations in consumption this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

risk sharing in private information models with asset accumulation explaining the excess smoothness of consumption we study testable implications for the dynamics of consumption and income of models in which first best allocations are not achieved because of a moral hazard problem with hidden saving we show that in this environment agents typically achieve more insurance than that obtained under self insurance with a single asset consumption allocations exhibit excess smoothness as found and defined by campbell and deaton 1989 we argue that excess smoothness in this context is equivalent to a violation of the intertemporal budget constraint considered in a bewley economy with a single asset we also show parameterizations of our model in which we can obtain a closed form solution for the efficient insurance contract and where the excess smoothness parameter has a structural interpretation in terms of the severity of the moral hazard problem we present tests of excess smoothness applied to u k microdata and constructed using techniques proposed by hansen roberds and sargent 1991 to test the intertemporal budget constraint our theoretical model leads us to interpret them as tests of the market structure faced by economic agents we also construct a test based on the dynamics of the cross sectional variances of consumption and income that is in a precise sense complementary to that based on hansen roberds and sargent 1991 and that allows us to estimate the same structural parameter the results we report are consistent with the implications of the model and are internally coherent

models of the multinational enterprise flexibility is identified as the hallmark of recent modelling of the multinational enterprise the focus on flexibility is a response to the rationalization and restructuring of international business which has occurred since the end of the golden age of western economic growth flexibility has been south in factor markets intermediate product markets and markets for final products it has been sought by both governments and firms flexible firms are attracted to locations with flexible host governments this article contrasts the modern research agenda based on flexibility with the more traditional research agenda which predominates in the literature reviewed by caves 1996

precautionary saving and consumption fluctuations this paper uses the consumption euler equation to derive a decomposition of consumption growth into four sources these four sources are new information and three sources of predictable consumption growth intertemporal substitution changes in the preferences for consumption and incomplete markets for consumption insurance using household level data we implement this decomposition for the average growth rate of consumption expenditures on nondurable goods in the united states from 1982 to 1997 the economic importance of precautionary saving rivals that of the real interest rate but the relative importance of each source of movement in the volatility of consumption is not precisely measured

the effects of information voids on capital flows in emerging markets information voids reflect a lack of publicly available information about a country s investment climate and represent the information problems associated with institutional voids we argue that foreign investors differ in their sensitivity to information voids based on their own private information and their flexibility in responding rapidly to change we predict that foreign banks will be least hampered by information voids due to their privileged access to private information about local conditions and ability to adapt quickly to new information portfolio investors while impeded by information voids due to their severely limited access to local private information are able to quickly respond to new information foreign direct investors have moderate access to local private information yet their inability to adapt quickly creates problems dealing with information voids using time series cross sectional data on local public information and capital flows to the thirty largest emerging markets from 1994 to 2012 we find preliminary support for our hypotheses regarding the sensitivity of different investors to information voids we find that direct investors are most sensitive to information voids and banks are least sensitive while portfolio investors are moderately sensitive

how prudent are consumers using data from the consumer expenditure survey this paper presents a simple test that provides an explicit estimate of the parameter in the utility function that reflects the strength of the precautionary saving motive the coefficient of relative prudence the test yields a fairly precise estimate of a small precautionary motive in fact the estimate is too small to be consistent with widely accepted beliefs about risk aversion the presence of liquidity constrained households does not appear to explain this finding and there is some evidence that self selection of households into risky environments also cannot explain the results

the relation between forward prices and futures prices abstract this paper consolidates the results of some recent work on the relation between forward prices and futures prices it develops a number of propositions characterizing the two prices these propositions contain several testable implications about the difference between forward and futures prices many of the propositions show that equilibrium forward and futures prices are equal to the values of particular assets even though they are not in themselves asset prices the paper then illustrates these results in the context of two valuation models and discusses the effects of taxes and other institutional factors

households vulnerability from trade in vietnam abstract this paper assesses vulnerability from trade in vietnam by presenting an extended version of ligon and schechter s 2003 vulnerability as low expected utility veu measure it uses the vietnam household living standard surveys vhlss panel data covering the period 2002 06 the empirical results show that risk induced vulnerability and heterogeneity in trade exposure matter in determining household overall vulnerability and that this is not linked to the actual manifestation of shocks although it does not represent by any means an argument against free trade this work is relevant for policymaking since it contributes to deepen our knowledge on the subtle links between trade openness and vulnerability and informs us about suitable instruments to accompany it

the drivers of foreign direct investment into research and development an empirical investigation this paper examines the determinants of foreign direct investment fdi in research and development laboratories by 32 multinational enterprises in the pharmaceutical and electronics industries the paper applies a dichotomous set of motives for fdi results from an econometric analysis of 136 laboratory investments show that relative market size and relative strength of a country s science base determine whether fdi in research and development is carried out in order to exploit existing firm specific advantages or in order to build up new firm specific advantages this holds true in similar form for japanese european and u s firms and across the two industries

the time varying volatility of earnings and aggregate consumption growth time varying specifications for the conditional variance of earnings of u s households are estimated with micro data over the period 1968 92 the cross sectional mean of the estimated time varying uncertainty of individual households has a significant impact on aggregate consumption growth as such aggregate precautionary savings may be more important than what is suggested by the results of estimating standard regression equations for aggregate consumption growth that incorporate only lagged income growth and the real interest rate the estimation of a buffer stock consumption model with time varying earnings uncertainty suggests that the precautionary savings motive is cyclical and has become less important in the 1980s

the multinational enterprise as a source of international knowledge flows direct evidence from italy this paper examines the determinants of technology transfer between parent firms and their international affiliates and of knowledge spillovers from those affiliates to host country firms using a unique data set of foreign multinational enterprise mne affiliates based in italy we find that affiliate investment in r d and investment in capital embodied technology plays a significant role in determining the nature of intra firm technology flows however the basis for any spillovers arising from mne affiliates does not originate from codified knowledge associated with r d but rather from the productivity of the affiliate

uncertainty and consumer durables adjustment we characterize infrequent durables stock adjustment by consumers who also derive utility from non durable consumption flows in the presence of idiosyncratic income uncertainty the data we analyse include subjective future income uncertainty measures which we use as instruments in the estimation of relevant parameters of heterogeneous consumers dynamic adjustment problems the data feature two conceptually distinct sources of variation cross sectional heterogeneity of the sampled households dynamic problems and history dependent heterogeneity in their situation during the observation period we note that the latter should affect the likelihood but not the size of stock adjustment decisions and find broad support for theoretical predictions in formal selection controlled regressions based on this insight

income variance dynamics and heterogeneity recent theoretical work has shown the importance of measuring microeconomic uncertainty for models of both general and partial equilibrium under imperfect insurance in this paper the assumption of i i d income innovations used in previous empirical studies is removed and the focus of the analysis is placed on models for the conditional variance of income shocks which is related to the measure of risk emphasized by the theory we first discriminate amongst various models of earnings determination that separate income shocks into idiosyncratic transitory and permanent components we allow for education and time specific differences in the stochastic process for earnings and for measurement error the conditional variance of the income shocks is modelled as a parsimonious arch process with both observable and unobserved heterogeneity the empirical analysis is conducted on data drawn from the 1967 1992 panel study of income dynamics we find strong evidence of sizeable arch effects as well as evidence of unobserved heterogeneity in the variances

is there a retirement savings puzzle in this paper we ask whether households are saving enough for their retirement we use data on income expenditure and expenditure components to analyse patterns of behaviour at and around the time of retirement for successive date of birth cohorts we compare periods of unemployment to periods of retirement and separate expenditures into categories reflecting work related expenditures basic necessities and other goods we find that income typically falls by more at unemployment than retirement but the reverse is true for expenditure we observe falls in expenditure at retirement for all expenditure categories using a stochastic life cycle model including mortality rates we assess the anticipated impact of retirement on consumption against that of unemployment the inter relationship between goods and leisure explains a large part of the persistent fall in expenditure at retirement we argue that the only way in which the life cycle hypothesis could be reconciled with the remaining unanticipated dip in consumption would be with the systematic arrival of unexpected adverse information at the time of retirement

consumption over the life cycle and over the business cycle the main aim of this paper is to assess the validity of the life cycle model of consumption in particular we address an issue that has recently received much attention especially in the macroeconomic literature that of excess sensitivity of consumption growth to income growth we do this using a time series of cross sections and a novel and flexible parameterization of preferences the former allows us to address aggregation issues directly while with the latter we can allow both the discount factor and the elasticity of intertemporal substitution eis to be affected by various observable variables and lifetime wealth the main findings can be summarized as follows i the excess sensitivity of consumption growth to labor income disappears when we control for demographic variables this is true both at life cycle and business cycle frequencies ii estimation of a flexible specification of preferences indicates that the elasticity of intertemporal substitution is a function of several variables including the level of consumption the eis increases with the level of consumption as expected iii the variables that change the eis are also important in explaining why we observe excess sensitivity over the business cycle iv we are able to reconcile our results with those reported both in the macro and micro literature v in our specification the elasticity of intertemporal substitution is not very well determined this result however should be taken with care as we have not made an effort to construct a preferred specification which would probably include additional controls for labor supply behavior the evidence presented shows that the life cycle model cannot be easily dismissed indeed we believe that the model does a good job at representing consumption behavior both over the life cycle and over the business cycle