the inflation output trade off with downward wage rigidities the macroeconomic implications of downward nominal wage rigidi ties are analyzed via a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model featuring aggregate and idiosyncratic shocks a closed form solution for a long run phillips curve relates average output gap to average wage inflation it is virtually vertical at high inflation and flattens at low inflation macroeconomic volatility shifts the curve outwards and reduces output the results imply that stabilization policies play an important role and that optimal inflation may be positive and dif fer across countries with different macroeconomic volatility results are robust to relaxing the wage constraint for example when large idiosyncratic shocks arise jel e23 e24 e31 e63

downward nominal wage rigidity and the case for temporary infl ation in the eurozone abstract since the onset of the great recession in peripheral europe nominal hourly wages have not fallen from the high levels they had reached during the boom years this in spite of widespread in

monetary policy in the presence of asymmetric wage indexation we study optimal monetary policy in the presence of asymmetric wage indexation we find that the monetary authorities do not react to small output shocks and that their reaction to large shocks is asymmetric insofar as they absorb positive shocks more than negative ones as a consequence we observe that asymmetric wage indexation can be contractionary it has ambiguous effects on expected inflation and welfare relative to an equivalent symmetric indexation optimal symmetric inflation however always outperforms optimal asymmetric indexation

evidence on the validity of cross sectional and longitudinal labor market data this article investigates error properties of survey reports of labor market variables we use the panel study of income dynamics psid validation study a two wave panel survey of workers employed by a large firm that shared its detailed payroll records individuals reports of annual earnings are fairly accurate errors are negatively related to true earnings reducing bias due to measurement error when earnings are used as an independent variable biases are moderately larger for changes in earnings earnings per hour are less reliably reported than annual earnings biases in estimating earnings functions are relatively small but those in labor supply functions may be important

implications of spillover effects within the family for medical cost effectiveness analysis medical cost effectiveness analyses traditionally treat patients as isolated individuals and neglect the effects of improvement in patients health on the welfare of their family members we use a model based on a family utility function with altruistic linkages to show that there can be direct and indirect effects on the welfare of all family members we focus specially on a model of how the spillover effects to the spouse in a two person family might affect choice of treatments for prostate cancer we then test the predictions of this model by analyzing treatment choices of prostate cancer patients using the linked seer medicare database we find that our results are consistent with the model s predictions we conclude that cost effectiveness analyses may better reflect the full costs and benefits of medical interventions if they incorporate these family effects however concerns about equity present a dilemma for the practice of cea from the societal perspective

inflation dynamics when inflation is near zero this paper discusses the likely evolution of u s inflation in the near and medium term on the basis of 1 past u s experience with very low levels of inflation 2 the most recent japanese experience with deflation and 3 recent u s micro evidence on downward nominal wage rigidity our findings question the view that stable long run inflation expectations and downward nominal wage rigidity will provide sufficient support to prices such that deflation can be avoided we show that an inflation model fitted on japanese data over the past 20 years which accounts for both short and long run inflation expectations matches the recent u s inflation experience quite well while the model indicates that u s inflation might be subject to a lower bound it does not rule out a prolonged period of mild deflation going forward in addition our micro evidence on wages suggests no obvious downward rigidity in the firm s wage costs downward rigidity in individual wages notwithstanding as a consequence downward nominal wage rigidity may provide little offset to deflationary pressures in the current u s situation despite some circumstantial evidence that this channel might have been at work in the past

reinforcing separate spheres the effect of spousal overwork on men s and women s employment in dual earner households this study examines whether long work hours exacerbate gender inequality as working long hours becomes increasingly common a normative conception of gender that prioritizes men s careers over women s careers in dual earner households may pressure women to quit their jobs i apply multilevel models to longitudinal data from the survey of income and program participation to show that having a husband who works long hours significantly increases a woman s likelihood of quitting whereas having a wife who works long hours does not appear to increase a man s likelihood of quitting this gendered pattern is more prominent among workers in professional and managerial occupations where the norm of overwork and the culture of intensive parenting are strong furthermore the effect is stronger among workers who have children findings suggest that overwork can reintroduce the separate spheres arrangement consisting of breadwinning men and homemaking women to many formerly dual earner households

market based incentives we study optimal incentives in a principal agent problem in which the agent s outside option is determined endogenously in a competitive labor market in equilibrium strong performance increases the agent s market value when this value becomes sufficiently high the threat of the agent s quitting forces the principal to give the agent a raise the prospect of obtaining this raise gives the agent an incentive to exert effort which reduces the need for standard incentives like bonuses in fact whenever the agent s option to quit is close to being in the money the market induced incentive completely eliminates the need for standard incentives

downward nominal wage rigidity in canada evidence from micro level data we assess the importance of downward nominal wage rigidity dnwr in canada using both firm and worker level microdata in particular we analyze employer level administrative data from the major wage settlements mws and household based survey data from the survey of labour income dynamics slid

union contracts and the life cycle permanent income hypothesis this paper isolates households in the psid whose heads can be matched to particular long term union contracts with high confidence the author uses use published information on these contracts to construct a household specific measure of expected wage growth he finds that predictable wage movements are significantly correlated with consumption changes contrary to neoclassical consumption theory the author finds that consumption responds more strongly to predictable income declines than to predictable income increases this asymmetry is inconsistent with liquidity constraints and myopia but is qualitatively consistent with models in which preferences exhibit loss aversion copyright 1995 by american economic association

a regional analysis of flows into and out of the uk national minimum wage this article utilizes the panel element of the uk labour force survey lfs to identify for individual regions total inflows and outflows and hazards for those individuals paid at or below the national minimum wage nmw in particular it examines the extent and direction of the correlation between low pay inflows and outflows and the economic cycle further it examines the impact of regional variations in the bite of the nmw on regional flows into and out of the nmw

nominal vs real wage rigidities in new keynesian models with hiring costs a bayesian evaluation abstract the inclusion of labor market frictions in the new keynesian dsge model overcomes the main drawbacks of the baseline framework in this paper we show that this extended model by assuming real wage rigidities does not replicate the correct wage dynamics and the negative conditional correlation between technology shocks and employment observed in the data known as the productivity employment puzzle we show also that these empirical limitations can be overcome by replacing real wage rigidities with nominal wage rigidities without sacrificing other appealing features of the model we adopt a bayesian perspective to estimate the dynamic properties of the model with real wage rigidities and compare them with those of the model with nominal wage rigidities we show that the evidence favors this latter construction

the internal economics of the firm evidence from personnel data we analyze twenty years of personnel data from one firm the hierarchical structure is quite simple and stable career movements suggest that the employee s rate of learning and the firm s learning about ability are important there are promotion fast tracks exit rates vary little with tenure or salary the firm has personnel policies like those described in the internal labor markets literature although several theoretical preconditions for ilms such as ports of entry and exit are lacking job levels are important to compensation but there is also substantial individual variation in pay within levels our companion paper in this issue explores the wage policy of this firm

interpreting panel data on job tenure tenure responses in the panel study of income dynamics psid and the national longitudinal surveys are often inconsistent with calendar time these inconsistencies pose special problems in the psid because job changes cannot be identified directly so researchers must infer them from error ridden tenure data we use alternative rules for partitioning psid data into jobs and then estimate several wage and mobility models to assess the sensitivity of parameter estimates to the partitioning method we also assess the importance of replacing raw tenure data with imputed measures that are internally consistent

communications on energy household energy conservation abstract this study assesses the influence of attitudinal and socio economic factors on household energy conservation actions a household interview survey in regina saskatchewan found that respondents perceive an energy problem although no association with energy conservation actions was determined two attitudinal and five socio economic variables influence household energy conservation energy and monetary savings are available to households through energy conservation public awareness of household energy conservation through the media can reinforce existing energy conservation actions and encourage new actions

resuscitating the wage channel in models with unemployment fluctuations higher wages all else equal translate into higher inflation more rigid wages imply a weaker response of inflation to shocks this view of the wage channel is deeply entrenched in central banks views and models of their economy in this paper we present a model with equilibrium unemployment which features three distinctive properties first using a search and matching model with right to manage wage bargaining a proper wage channel obtains second accounting for fixed costs associated with maintaining an existing job greatly magnifies profit fluctuations for any given degree of wage fluctuations which allows the model to reproduce the fluctuations of unemployment over the business cycle and third the model implies a reasonably low elasticity of steady state unemployment with respect to changes in benefits the calibration of the model implies low profits but does not require a small gap between the value of working and the value of unemployment for the worker

robust contracts with one sided commitment abstract we consider a robust contract with limited commitment in continuous time in which the principal firm is ambiguity averse and seeks robust decisions first we find the existence of limited commitment not only attenuates the negative effect of model uncertainty on the firm value but also makes the firm less pessimistic moreover concerns regarding model misspecification motivate the firm to increase the worker s exposure to the productivity shocks via the optimal contract finally our theoretical model predicts that the combination of limited commitment and ambiguity generates both right skewness and decreases in the wage dynamics as the empirical data

search and matching frictions and optimal monetary policy abstract a recent literature has merged the new keynesian and the search and matching frameworks which has allowed the former to analyze the joint dynamics of unemployment and inflation this paper analyzes optimal monetary policy in this kind of hybrid framework i show that zero inflation is optimal when all wages are nash bargained in every period and the economy s steady state is efficient in the more realistic case in which nominal wage bargaining is staggered a case against price stability arises in response to real shocks the central bank should use price inflation so as to avoid excessive unemployment volatility and excessive dispersion in hiring rates for a plausible calibration the welfare loss under the zero inflation policy is about three times as large as under the optimal policy

real wage cyclicality in the eurozone before and during the great recession evidence from micro data we study the response of real wages to the business cycle in eight major eurozone countries before and during the great recession average real wages are found to be acyclical but this reflects in large part the effect of changes in the composition of the labour force related to unemployment variations over the cycle using longitudinal micro data from the echp and silc panels to control for composition effects we estimate the elasticities of real wage growth to unemployment increases between 0 6 and 1 over the period 1994 2011 composition effects have been particularly large since 2008 and they explain most of the stagnation or increase in the average wage observed in some countries from 2008 to 2011 in contrast at a constant labour force composition in terms of education and experience the figures indicate a significant decrease in average wages during the downturn particularly in countries most affected by the crisis overall there is no evidence of downward nominal wage rigidity during the great recession in most countries in our sample

financial crises and exchange rate policy this paper studies exchange rate policy in a small open economy model featuring an occasionally binding collateral constraint and fisherian deation the goal is to evaluate the performance of alternative exchange rate policies in sudden stop prone economies the key element of the analysis is a pecuniary externality arising from frictions in the international credit markets which creates a trade o between price

optimal monetary policy and downward nominal wage rigidity in frictional labor markets empirical evidence suggests that nominal wages in the u s are downwardly rigid this paper studies the optimal long run inflation rate in a labor search and matching framework under the presence of downward nominal wage rigidity dnwr in this environment optimal monetary policy targets a positive inflation rate the annual long run inflation rate for the u s is around 2 percent positive inflation greases the wheels of the labor market by facilitating real wage adjustments and hence it eases job creation and prevents excessive increase in unemployment following recessionary shocks these findings are related to standard ramsey theory of wedge smoothing by following a positive inflation policy under sticky prices the monetary authority manages to reduce the volatility and the size of the intertemporal distortion significantly the intertemporal wedge is completely smoothed when prices are fully flexible since the optimal long run inflation rate predicted by this study is considerably higher than in otherwise neoclassical labor markets the nature of the labor market in which dnwr is studied can be relevant for policy recommendations

wage risk and the value of job mobility in early employment careers this paper shows that job mobility is a valuable channel that employed workers use to mitigate bad labor market shocks i estimate a model of wage dynamics jointly with a dynamic model of employmen

nominal contracting theories of unemployment evidence from panel data this paper examines economywide and sector specific responses of real wages to nominal shocks using micro panel data from the national longitudinal survey of young men the observed response patterns provide no support for nominal contracting theories of unemployment which predict that nominal surprises should be negatively correlated with real wages in fact both inflation and money growth surprises are found to be essentially uncorrelated with real wages either a real business cycle model or a model with rigidities in commodity prices could be consistent with these results copyright 1993 by american economic association

unemployment fluctuations match quality and the wage cyclicality of new hires we revisit the issue of the high cyclicality of wages of new hires we show that after controlling for composition effects likely involving procyclical upgrading of job match quality the wages of new hires are no more cyclical than those of existing workers the key implication is that the sluggish behaviour of wages for existing workers is a better guide to the cyclicality of the marginal cost of labour than is the high measured cyclicality of new hires wages unadjusted for composition effects key to our identification is distinguishing between new hires from unemployment versus those who are job changers we argue that to a reasonable approximation the wages of the former provide a composition free estimate of the wage flexibility while the same is not true for the latter we then develop a quantitative general equilibrium model with sticky wages via staggered contracting on the job search and heterogeneous match quality and show that it can account for both the panel data evidence and aggregate evidence on labour market volatility

downward nominal wage flexibility real or measurement error this paper presents a new method to correct for measurement error in wage data and applies this method to address an old question how much downward wage flexibility is there in the united states we apply standard methods developed by bai and perron to identify structural breaks in time series data applying these methods to wage histories allows us to identify when each person experiences a change in nominal wages the length of the period of constant nominal wages is left unrestricted and is allowed to differ across individuals as are the size and direction of the nominal wage change we apply these methods to data from the survey of income and program participation the evidence we provide indicates that the probability of a cut in nominal wages is substantially overstated in data that are not corrected for measurement error