observable and unobservable determinants of replacement of home appliances despite the dominant role of replacement purchases in many consumer durable categories the research in this area has not been extensive only in the last few years has the economic theory made progress towards a more rigorous analysis of the dynamic nature involved in replacement decisions as a consequence of this applied researchers have switched from conventional discrete choice models to new econometric techniques e g duration analysis that allow for richer relationships between socioeconomic variables characteristics of the durable good and the likelihood of its replacement over time our study focuses on two home appliances taken from the residential energy consumption survey recs based on a duration model that allows for unobserved heterogeneity across households we conclude that household demographics and product features both observable and unobservable in general have statistical power to explain replacement decisions over time

efficient diversification according to stochastic dominance criteria this paper develops the first operational tests of portfolio efficiency based on the general stochastic dominance sd criteria that account for an infinite set of diversification strategies the main insight is to preserve the cross sectional dependence of asset returns when forming portfolios by reexpressing the sd criteria int dimensional euclidean space with elements representing rates of return int different states of nature we characterize subsets of this state space that dominate a given evaluated return vector by first and second order sd this allows us to derive simple sd efficiency measures and test statistics computable by standard mathematical programming algorithms the sd tests and efficiency measures are illustrated by an empirical application that analyzes industrial diversification of the market portfolio

general linear formulations of stochastic dominance criteria abstract we develop and implement linear formulations of general n th order stochastic dominance criteria for discrete probability distributions our approach is based on a piece wise polynomial representation of utility and its derivatives and can be implemented by solving a relatively small system of linear inequalities this approach allows for comparing a given prospect with a discrete set of alternative prospects as well as for comparison with a polyhedral set of linear combinations of prospects we also derive a linear dual formulation in terms of lower partial moments and co lower partial moments an empirical application to historical stock market data suggests that the passive stock market portfolio is highly inefficient relative to actively managed portfolios for all investment horizons and for nearly all investors the results also illustrate that the mean variance rule and second order stochastic dominance rule may not detect market portfolio inefficiency because of non trivial violations of non satiation and prudence

decisions to replace consumer durables goods an econometric application of wiener and renewal processes current sales of most consumer durable goods are accounted for by replacements however only in recent years has the economic literature provided a more rigorous analysis of replacement purchases by incorporating elements of dynamic programming and of the theory of stochastic processes this paper is an empirical study of household replacement decisions modeled as an optimal stopping rule using data from the residential energy consumption survey recs of the u s department of energy we conclude that demographic variables operation and replacement costs and equipment characteristics may affect ownership spells of appliances such as electric heaters and central air conditioners

is the entropy law relevant to the economics of natural resource scarcity abstract nicholas georgescu roegen and herman daly have argued that the entropy law imposes an absolute resource scarcity which cannot be overcome with technological change exploration or substitution on the contrary this paper argues that their critique is fundamentally flawed the pessimistic scenario requires a concept of materials entropy which is highly problematic materials entropy cannot be defined independently of technology and it is impossible to aggregate over different types of materials to meaningfully talk about available versus unavailable matter in the aggregate failing a concept of materials entropy the critique fails since the earth is not closed with respect to energy

cost effective compensation to avoid carbon emissions from forest loss an approach to consider price quantity effects and risk aversion abstract analyses were carried out on financial compensation to avoid loss of tropical forests and related carbon c emissions when marginal financial yield declined for land use options with extended areas and when a risk averting perspective modeled according to financial theory around the capital asset pricing model is assumed the approach in this study was to consider natural forest forest plantation pasture and cropland simultaneously to investigate how an optimized land use distribution may reduce the amount of compensation necessary to avoid c emissions from forest loss the financial compensations derived were as high as us 176 per hectare per year when comparing natural forests only with the most profitable alternative croplands however compensation decreased to us 124 for risk neutral decision makers who would strive for optimized land use allocation and to only us 47 per hectare per year for risk avoiders who would look to maximize the reward to variability ratio sensitivity analyses indicated that the compensation under risk aversion increased much less than under risk ignoring when increased productivity of agricultural land use or growing demand for agricultural products was simulated it was concluded that considering appropriate diversification strategies and the well documented human behavior to avoid risks is an important step in developing cost effective compensation policies

eco thermodynamics economics and the second law the laws of physics especially the first and second laws of thermodynamics have significant implications for economic theory the major implications of the first law conservation of mass energy are straightforward and have been discussed at length elsewhere in brief raw material inputs to economic processes are not consumed having been extracted from the environment in the first place they eventually return to the environment as wastes the economic implications of the second law entropy law are far more subtle there is considerable literature initiated by the work of georgescu roegen on the supposed constraints on economic growth imposed by the fact that economic processes utilize low entropy raw materials fossil fuels and high grade metal ores and discard high entropy wastes however as a practical matter the flux of available low entropy energy exergy from the sun is extremely large and certainly adequate to sustain economic activity in the solar system indefinitely even though fossil fuel and metal ore stocks may eventually be exhausted it is argued in this paper that the real economic significance of the second law lies in the fact that exergy is i not conserved and ii is a useful common measure of resource quality as well as quantity applicable to both materials and energy thus exergy can be used to measure and compare resource inputs and outputs including wastes and losses this is potentially important in itself moreover since exergy is not conserved it is truly consumed i e used up in economic processes hence exergy is no less a factor of production than labor or capital this fact has strong implications for economic growth theory especially with regard to assessing the role of technical progress

entropy and economic processes physics perspectives this paper is a contribution to the discussion on the relation between thermodynamics and economic theory with respect to thermodynamic constraints on the economy there are two diametrically opposite positions in this discussion one claims that the constraints are insignificant of no immediate practical importance for modelling and in the intermediate run do not limit economic activity and therefore need not be incorporated in the economic theory the other holds that thermodynamics tells us that there are practical limits to materials recycling which already puts bounds on the economy and therefore must be included in the economic models using the thermodynamic concept of entropy we show here that there are fundamental problems with both positions even in the long run entropy production associated with material dissipation need not be a limiting factor for economic development abundant energy resources from solar radiation may be used to recover dissipated elements with simple quantitative analysis we show that the rate of entropy production caused by human economic activities is very small compared to the continuous natural entropy production in the atmosphere and on the earth s surface further the societal entropy production is well within the range of natural variation it is possible to replace part of the natural entropy production with societal entropy production by making use of solar energy society consumes resources otherwise available for coming generations however future generations need not have less resources available to them than the present generation human industrial activities could be transformed into a sustainable system where the more abundant elements are industrially used and recycled using solar energy as the driving resource an economic theory fit to guide industrial society in that development must not disregard thermodynamics nor must it overstate the consequences of the laws of thermodynamics 2001 elsevier science b v all rights reserved

stochastic dominance and mean variance measures of profit and loss for business planning and investment in this paper we first extend the stochastic dominance sd theory by introducing the first three orders of both ascending sd asd and descending sd dsd to decisions in business planning and investment to risk averse and risk loving decision makers so that they can compare both return and loss we provide investors with more tools for empirical analysis with which they can identify the first order asd and dsd prospects and discern arbitrage opportunities that could increase his her utility as well as wealth and set up a zero dollar portfolio to make huge profit our tools also enable investors and business planners to identify the third order asd and dsd prospects and make better choices to complement the stochastic dominance approach we also introduce an improved mean variance criterion to decisions in business planning or investment on both return and loss for risk averse and riskloving investors we then illustrate the superiority of the present approaches with well known examples in the literature and discuss the relationship between the improved stochastic dominance and mean variance criteria

the inada conditions for material resource inputs reconsidered it is shown that the thermodynamic law of conservation of mass the so called materials balance principle implies that the marginal product as well as the average product of a material resource input are bounded from above this means that the inada conditions one of the standard assumptions of economic growth theory when applied to material resource inputs are inconsistent with a basic law of nature the analysis is based on a model of multi level production where intermediate goods are produced from elementary resources and an all purpose final commodity is produced from these intermediates

portfolio analysis using stochastic dominance relative entropy and empirical likelihood this study formulates portfolio analysis in terms of stochastic dominance relative entropy and empirical likelihood we define a portfolio inefficiency measure based on the divergence between given probabilities and the nearest probabilities that rationalize a given portfolio for some admissible utility function when applied to a sample of time series observations in a blockwise fashion the inefficiency measure becomes a likelihood ratio statistic for testing inequality moment conditions the limiting distribution of the test statistic is bounded by a chi squared distribution under general sampling schemes allowing for conservative large sample testing we develop a tight numerical approximation for the test statistic based on a two stage optimization procedure and piecewise linearization techniques a monte carlo simulation study of the empirical likelihood ratio test shows superior small sample properties compared with various generalized method of moments tests an application analyzes the efficie

timber harvesting versus forest reserves producer prices for open use areas in german beech forests fagus sylvatica l abstract a strong demand for nature conservation can be ascertained in germany several nature conservation groups argue that in order to provide nature conservation in considerable parts of the forest area forestry should sacrifice timber harvesting for example the abandoning of harvesting altogether is supposed to enhance and protect the species richness this fact and the very low profitability of forestry in germany motivated the writing of this paper the paper explains a methodology for deriving producer prices involved in forest reserves where harvest benefits are sacrificed totally such methodology can be useful to form a basis for private contracts between forest owners and nature conservationists who demand forest reserves the results of this methodology can also be integrated in financial programs for species and habitat conservation in a basic theoretical consideration it is demonstrated that a stand by stand evaluation approach may only serve as an initial step in deriving compensation prices for forest reserves due to the stochastic character of forest management a nonlinear programming approach nlp was adopted to find an optimal operational plan for a hypothetical beech fagus sylvatica l forest in both the constraints and the objective function the nonlinearity is considered by integrating stochastic components additionally only virtual homogenous forest reserves are considered firstly a basic nlp solution for the hypothetical forest with the objective maximise the net present value npv of timber harvests adjusted to risk was obtained when considering several constraints subject to stochastic variation of net revenues and timber harvests without considering forest reserves secondly other solutions allowing for forest reserves were computed the decrease of the objective function when forest reserves were increased in periodic increments seemed well suited to mirror the opportunity costs of forest reserves the results showed that a stand by stand approach gave much greater compensation prices than the nlp approach the reason for this lay in the consideration of a nonlinear objective function as well as the nonlinear constraints in the case of nlp the first 42 ha forest reserve was priced at 11 494 euro ha or 483 euro ha year expressed in infinite yearly compensation the yearly compensation price for the last forest reserve had an increase up to 607 euro ha year a stand by stand approach however resulted with compensation prices from minimally 609 up to maximally 709 euro ha year various interest rates 3 2 and 5 2 caused different compensation price curves the slope of the curves increased when the interest rate decreased the limits of the approach the problem of deriving a demand for forest reserves and the opportunities for applying the presented approach to state forests are discussed

making a case for robust optimization models robust optimization searches for recommendations that are relatively immune to anticipated uncertainty in the problem parameters stochasticities are addressed via a set of discrete scenarios this paper presents applications in which the traditional stochastic linear program fails to identify a robust solution despite the presence of a cheap robust point limitations of piecewise linearization are discussed we argue that a concave utility function should be incorporated in a model whenever the decision maker is risk averse examples are taken from telecommunications and financial planning

a probabilistic choice model for market segmentation and elasticity structure marketing scholars commonly characterize market structure by studying the patterns of substitution implied by brand switching though the approach is useful it typically ignores the destabilizing

the neoclassical maximization hypothesis reply bruce caldwell has chided me for ignoring the contributions of modem philosophers in my 1981 article supposedly if i were to appreciate the contributions of the logical empiricists since the mid 1930 s i would see the error of my ways caldwell chooses to focus on my view of criticism namely that for any criticism to be successful it must be decisive or as he says logically compelling he feels this concept is overly narrow i understand him to be saying that there are other concepts which are less narrow and thus my concept is only a special case he recommends a more liberal concept of criticism which he calls appraisal my reply is that he is exactly wrong the idea that criticism must be logically compelling is not narrow but instead the broadest possible and worse his concept of criticism is completely inadequate the implication that we should avoid logically compelling criticism in favor of a weaker line of argument which he calls appraisal is merely an expression of caldwell s advocacy of the commonly promoted but logically inadequate methodology which philosophers today call conventionalism

system stress testing of bank liquidity risk abstract using a stress test methodology for bank liquidity risk we estimate the aggregate liquidity shortfall in the u s commercial banking system at the height of 2007 09 crisis identifying key sources of funding vulnerabilities and the dominant composition of liquid asset holdings against liquidity shocks the largest liquidity shocks to the system are estimated in the first half of the crisis in line with acharya and mora 2015 large banks experience the largest liquidity shortfall in 2008 q1 154 billion or 14 of total assets and small banks in 2007 q4 117 billion or 11 of total assets the dominant funding vulnerability to the system stems from large time deposits while government securities largely dominate other classes of liquid assets as liquidity backstop the analysis draws on detailed bank level data on balance sheet flows of funds and applies stochastic dominance efficiency methods to capture liquidity risk diversification effects across assets and liabilities

info gap economics an operational introduction yakov ben haim palgrave macmillan 2010 isbn 978 0 230 22804 7 245 pp

on exact and approximate stochastic dominance strategies for portfolio selection abstract one recent and promising strategy for enhanced indexation is the selection of portfolios that stochastically dominate the benchmark we propose here a new type of approximate stochastic dominance rule which implies other existing approximate stochastic dominance rules we then use it to find the portfolio that approximately stochastically dominates a given benchmark with the best possible approximation our model is initially formulated as a linear program with exponentially many constraints and then reformulated in a more compact manner so that it can be very efficiently solved in practice this reformulation also reveals an interesting financial interpretation we compare our approach with several exact and approximate stochastic dominance models for portfolio selection an extensive empirical analysis on real and publicly available datasets shows very good out of sample performances of our model

modelling the consumer s decision to replace durable goods a hazard function approach this article analysis the consumer s durable good replacement decision using hazard models in contrast to the typical limited dependent variable model often used in durable good demand studies hazard models allow for much richer replacement to illustrate the technique a recursive system consisting of a regression equation and a hazard model is used to examine home heating system replacement decisions by residencial customers of a major southeasten us electric utility the results indicate that overall system replacement rates decline over time and that the probability of replacement for specific households depends negatively on the age of the head of household abd the availability of natural gas and positively on system age and higher than expected household energy use

mixed forests and finance methodological approaches abstract mixed forest ecosystems show effects of risk compensation similar to diversified portfolios of stocks other than portfolios of stocks the composition of long lived forests cannot be adjusted at short notice to current market developments thus the financial robustness of tree species portfolios is very important however it is still an open question which financial approaches are appropriate to evaluate the financial robustness of mixed forests compared to single species forests this paper analysed various possibilities to assess portfolios of tree species namely the mean variance mv approach applied for the selection of optimal portfolios the second order stochastic dominance ssd criterion and the information gap approach for the numerical analysis existing financial data on norway spruce picea abies l karst and european beech fagus sylvatica l were used which were generated by monte carlo simulations mcs under risk regardless of the analysed approach in all cases pure forests did not outperform mixed forests the mv approach was restricted by the assumption of normally distributed financial returns it had the tendency to favour larger proportions of the high risk species norway spruce ssd was only able to distinguish between the efficient and the inefficient portfolios it showed that forests with less than 20 financial returns generated by mcs or less than 30 normally distributed financial returns of norway spruce were inefficient under information gap modelling the advantages of risk compensation in mixed forests became clearest under the given assumptions the financial robustness of a mixed forest 50 european beech and 50 norway spruce was between 4 and 18 times greater than that of pure norway spruce modern information gap modelling is very similar to the well known safety first rules and as such it is not that novel to financial optimisation as it seems at the first glance although the information gap theory resulted in the same rankings as the minimisation of the estimated probability of failure it nevertheless proved to be useful as a supplement to the other methods against the background of severe uncertainty inherent in long term decision making in forestry information gap modelling is based on appropriate assumptions it favours a decision which promises the greatest tolerance to possible errors in the available information while still guaranteeing a minimal acceptable financial result in principle classical safety first rules do the same however the information gap model is able to quantify the immunity of a decision against errors in the estimated financial data from a theoretical point of view this approach provides a supplementary and methodologically sound opportunity to incorporate severe uncertainty in decision making

entropy limits to growth and the prospects for weak sustainability in this paper we analyze the consequences of mass and energy conservation and the second law of thermodynamics for economic activity in contrast to former studies we deduce our results formally from a general model of production and consumption we show that in a static setting for economies containing irreversible processes a non zero resource input as well as non zero emissions are necessary to sustain a positive level of consumption we generalize this result to a dynamic setting and apply it to the growth discussion and the sustainability discourse thereby we show that limits to growth of production and consumption are likely to exist and that the concept of weak sustainability is either morally unattractive or physically infeasible d 2005 elsevier b v all rights reserved

linear tests for decreasing absolute risk aversion stochastic dominance we develop and implement linear formulations of convex stochastic dominance relations based on decreasing absolute risk aversion dara for discrete and polyhedral choice sets our approach is based on a piecewise exponential representation of utility and a local linear approximation to the exponentiation of log marginal utility an empirical application to historical stock market data suggests that a passive stock market portfolio is dara stochastic dominance inefficient relative to concentrated portfolios of small cap stocks the mean variance rule and nth order stochastic dominance rules substantially underestimate the degree of market portfolio inefficiency because they do not penalize the unfavorable skewness of diversified portfolios in violation of dara this paper was accepted by james smith decision analysis

pareto optimality and competition there is a general consensus that u s financial markets are very competitive and efficient with prices quickly reflecting the available information there is also a widespread belief that these competitive and efficient markets enable the efficient allocation of scarce capital among alternative investment opportunities this belief is not based on direct observation it is virtually impossible to obtain the data concerning the joint probability distribution of returns to all possible projects which would be required for a direct assessment of the efficiency of the resource allocations to which the market gives rise rather it is based on the well known result that perfectly competitive markets generate pareto efficient resource allocations the object of this paper is to question that conclusion to show that even with apparently competitive and efficient markets resource allocations may not be pareto efficient

a stochastic dominance comparison of reduced tillage systems in corn and soybean production under risk returns per acre of reduced tillage systems including conventional chisel till plant and no till are examined under general assumptions concerning risk these returns are calculated using com and soybean experimental plot yields stochastic dominance rankings indicate an advantage second degree of conventional and chisel over no till when soil loss costs are not assigned annual per acre soil loss costs of 5 15 shift rankings towards the reduced tillage systems a 10 per acre cost results from corn yield losses of 0 06 per year 170 bushel per acre yield base over fifty years with a 5 real discount rate

efficient algorithms for stochastic dominance tests based on financial market data it is known that when the random variables being compared have a uniform probability measure as is the case when using financial market data the computation of efficient sets for first and second degree dominance can be greatly simplified if majorization conditions are used instead of the dominance definitions this paper presents an equally efficient technique for third degree dominance

portfolio management of wild fish stocks abstract managing fish stocks in terms of a portfolio of economic assets is likely to significantly increase benefits for society relative to single species approaches a portfolio framework systematically combines fish stocks that are joined by ecology e g predation competition and unspecialized fishing technologies e g mixed species trawls into a portfolio which balances expected aggregate returns against the risks associated with stock attribute and other uncertainties to be productive however this framework must be combined with property rights institutions that clearly state management objectives create long run time horizons among harvesters internalize spillovers caused by ecological and technological jointness and reduce uncertainty through research and adaptive management although the cost of reducing scientific uncertainty about ecological interactions may limit the portfolio approach to intensive management of relatively few species its scope can be broadened to integrate tradeoffs among more types of marine resources such as nature preserves and oil and gas deposits

optimizing agricultural land use portfolios with scarce data a non stochastic model the theory of portfolio selection has often been applied to help improve economic decisions about the environment applying this theory requires information on the covariance of uncertain returns between all combinations of the economic options and also assumes that returns are normally distributed as it is usually difficult to fulfill all data requirements and assumptions this paper proposes a variant of robust portfolio optimization as an alternative that needs less pre information the approach considers future uncertainties in a non stochastic fashion through possible deviations from the nominal return of land use alternatives maximizing the economic return of the land use portfolio is conditional on meeting an inclusive set of constraints these demand that a pre defined return threshold is achieved by the robust solution for each uncertainty scenario considered based on data for eight agricultural crops common in the ecuadorian lowlands a comparison with portfolios generated by classical stochastic mean variance optimization shows greater land use diversification through increased shannon indices but only moderate expected economic loss of non stochastic robust land use portfolios we conclude that non stochastic derivation of land use portfolios is a good alternative to the classical stochastic model in situations where information on economic input parameters is scarce

a portfolio optimality test based on the first order stochastic dominance criterion existing approaches to testing for the efficiency of a given portfolio make strong parametric assumptions about investor preferences and return distributions stochastic dominance based procedures promise a useful nonparametric alternative however these procedures have been limited to considering binary choices in this paper we take a new approach that considers all diversified portfolios and thereby introduce a new concept of first order stochastic dominance fsd optimality of a given portfolio relative to all possible portfolios using our new test we show that the u s stock market portfolio is significantly fsd nonoptimal relative to benchmark portfolios formed on market capitalization and book to market equity ratios without appealing to parametric assumptions about the return distribution we conclude that no nonsatiable investor would hold the market portfolio in the face of the attractive premia of small caps and value stocks

sufficient conditions for expected utility to imply mean standard deviation rankings empirical evidence concerning the location and scale condition this paper presents and implements a procedure which examines for empirical support for the location and scale condition the kolmogorov smirnov multisample test is used to determine if the distribution functions describing the nonsystematic risk component of rate of return for portfolios of common stock are equal to one another except for location and scale implications concerning the relationship between mean variance and expected utility efficient sets are noted copyright 1992 by royal economic society

a stochastic dominance comparison of water conserving irrigation strategies stochastic dominance and stochastic dominance with respect to a function are used to compare water conserving irrigation strategies in an area of declining ground water supplies a computerized grain sorghum plant growth model using daily weather observations provides the basis for stochastic dominance comparisons six irrigation strategies dominate contemporary intensive irrigation practices by first degree stochastic dominance and two additional strategies exhibit second degree stochastic dominance over contemporary practices dominant strategies involve irrigating based on a 45 percent soil water criterion and eliminating early season irrigations some dominant strategies reduce water use by as much as 40 percent while increasing expected net returns

is the entropy law relevant to the economics of natural resource scarcity comment abstract jeffrey t young s critique of the work of nicholas georgescu roegen and herman e daly questions the relevance of the entropy law for economic analysis and provides a concise faithful summary of the positions of georgescu roegen and daly along the way however young produces an alternative model of natural resource depletion that is based upon questionable interpretations of the laws of thermodynamics in particular young s claim that natural resource economics can be divided into conservation law orientations and entropy law orientations and his claim that the entropy law pertains to energy but not to matter seem unsupportable from a scientific view

the extraction of natural resources the role of thermodynamic efficiency abstract the modelling of production in microeconomics has been the subject of heated debate the controversial issues include the substitutability between production inputs the role of time and the economic consequences of irreversibility in the production process a case in point is the use of cobb douglas type production functions which completely ignore the physical process underlying the production of a good we examine these issues in the context of the production of a basic commodity such as copper or aluminium we model the extraction and the refinement of a valuable substance which is mixed with waste material in a way which is fully consistent with the physical constraints of the process the resulting analytical description of production unambiguously reveals that perfect substitutability between production inputs fails if a corrected thermodynamic approach is used we analyze the equilibrium pricing of a commodity extracted in an irreversible way we force consumers to purchase goods using energy as the means of payment and force the firm to account in terms of energy the resulting market provides the firm with a form of reversibility of its use of energy under an energy numeraire energy resources will naturally be used in a more parsimonious way

analysis of selected marketing strategies a whole farm simulation approach a detailed whole farm simulation model capable of simulating stochastic daily cash and futures prices was used to evaluate alternative marketing strategies for a texas high plains cotton farm over a ten year planning horizon stochastic dominance with respect to a function was used to rank the alternative marketing strategies for risk averse and risk neutral producers results indicated that risk averse producers would prefer hedge and hold marketing strategies over discretionary hedging strategies sellers call contracting was not highly preferred by either risk neutral or risk averse producers

conservation payments under risk a stochastic dominance approach conservation payments can be used to preserve forest and agroforest systems to explain landowners land use decisions and determine appropriate conservation payments it is necessary to focus on revenue risk marginal conditional stochastic dominance rules are used to derive conditions for determining the conservation payments required to guarantee that the environmentally preferred land use dominates an empirical application to shaded coffee protection in the biologically important choco region of west ecuador shows that conservation payments required for preserving shaded coffee areas are much higher than those calculated under risk neutral assumptions further the extant distribution of land has strong impacts on the required payments

option pricing in a lognormal securities market with discrete trading abstract this paper derives a call option valuation equation assuming discrete trading in securities markets where the underlying asset and market returns are bivariate lognormally distributed and investors have increasing concave utility functions exhibiting skewness preference since the valuation does not require the continouus time riskfree hedging of black and scholes nor the discrete time riskfree hedging of cox ross and rubinstein market effects are introduced into the option valuation relation the new option valuation seems to correct for the systematic mispricing of well in and well out of the money options by the black and scholes option pricing formula

options uncertainty and sunk costs an empirical analysis of land use change abstract in a real option model of land conversion incorporating return uncertainty and sunk costs optimal conversion thresholds are significantly higher than those from expected net present value models not accounting for these factors empirical tests of conversion from agriculture to forest suggest that landowners value the option to convert when making conversion decisions higher uncertainty in returns to all potential uses and lower correlation between shocks to agricultural and forest returns decreases the likelihood of conversion estimates indicate a significant impact on conversion decisions with approximations of option values ranging from 7 to 81 of the expected value of the land asset

entropy and natural resource scarcity a reply to the critics abstract the paper reaffirms the author s view that entropy is not relevant to the economics of natural resource scarcity once system boundaries are carefully defined entropic considerations are either already incorporated into relative price information or represent such a long run constraint as to be irrelevant to foreseeable human welfare while matter and energy both undergo entropic dissipation it is argued there is an asymmetry in that energy can be imported to recycle matter but the converse importing matter to recycle energy is pure science fiction therefore an open system such as the earth can maintain any level of organization

a standard measure of risk and risk value models in this paper we propose a standard measure of risk that is based on the converted expected utility of normalized lotteries with zero expected values this measure of risk has many desirable properties that characterize the notion of risk it is very general and includes many previously proposed measures of risk as special cases moreover our standard measure of risk provides a preference based and unified method for risk studies since the standard measure of risk is compatible with the measure of expected utility it can be used explicitly or implicitly in an expected utility model under a condition called risk independence a decision could be made by explicitly trading off between risk and value which offers an alternative representation of the expected utility model named the standard risk value model finally we discuss some other applications of the standard measure of risk and extensions of our risk value tradeoff framework for descriptive decision making

two moment decision models and expected utility maximization two moment decision models are consistent with expected utility maximization only if the choice set or the agent s preferences are restricted this paper identifies a restriction which is sufficient to ensure this consistency and confirms that it holds in many economic models the implications for economic analysis are then derived two different approaches to representing an agent s preferences over strategies yielding random payoffs are in wide use under the mean standard deviation ms approach the agent is assumed to rank the alternatives according to the value of some function defined over the first two moments of the random payoff while the expected utility eu criterion assumes that the expected value of some utility function defined over payoffs is used instead the fact that there are these two competing approaches has generated a considerable literature some authors are concerned with the advantages and disadvantages of each while others deal with conditions under which the potentially different approaches would yield the same results or at least approximately so space does not

quantitative versus qualitative growth with recyclable resource we reassess the issue of limits to growth in an endogenous growth model of a decentralized economy where final productions require a recyclable essential material input the model follows a material balance approach and relies on technological assumptions consistent with the material balance principle and on explicit distinction between the material content and the quality of produced goods growth follows from research activities that allow firms to improve the quality of their output and to reduce the material resource intensiveness of their production process even though recycling is assumed perfect we show that 1 the material balance constraint affect the whole transitory dynamics of the growth process 2 quantitative growth i e positive growth of material output can only be a transitory phenomenon long term economic growth taking exclusively the form of perpetual improvements in the quality of final goods a long term growth path is characterized by constant values of material variables or in a less favorable scenario by a constant negative growth rate of those variables we establish the existence conditions of a growth path based on quality improvements and constant material variables it may fail to exist in a decentralized framework even though it is quite feasible from a purely physical point of view

demand for differentiated durable products the case of the u s computer printer market i introduction this paper aims to provide a theoretical and empirical description of consumer behavior in a dynamic market for differentiated durable goods the computer hardware industry serves as an example of the type of market we consider markets for computer systems and components as well as for many other high technology products exhibit some striking similarities that are of particular concern for an empirical economist as follows products are differentiated in multiple dimensions in addition to price products are durable yielding consumption services over multiple periods product quality rapidly improves over time empirical work on estimating differentiated product demand systems has been dominated by static discrete choice models with random utility see berry levinsohn and pakes 1995 goldberg 1995 and nevo 2001 among others however markets for durable goods exhibit several features at odds with their assumption of myopic consumer behavior first traditional static discrete choice models implicitly assume that consumers participate in the market every period choosing one of the available products or an outside option thus the fraction of consumers who do not buy any product in a given period could only be explained by the high value they assign to the outside alternative for durable goods however purchases are made infrequently and result in a consumer s exiting the market for a significant period of time hence the model needs to account for consumers outflow from the market arising from their purchase decisions second a static framework may give a misleading picture of the aggregate sales time pattern in a dynamic industry in many markets for durable products it is not uncommon to see rapidly improving product quality and falling prices given any reasonable set of consumer preferences over the product characteristics space static discrete choice models for such an industry will tend to predict an upward trend in aggregate sales this fails to account for a variety of patterns commonly seen in the data third the evolution of product quality leads to the possibility of intertemporal demand substitution by forgoing a current purchase the consumer retains the option to buy a potentially better product in the future hence the decision of when to buy may be just as important for consumers as the decision of what to buy this trade off cannot be accounted for in the static framework the purpose of this paper is to remedy these shortcomings of static discrete choice models in durable goods markets with particular attention paid to technological change and the dynamics of new products adoption the paper presents a dynamic model of consumer demand for differentiated durable products that explicitly accounts for consumers expectations of future product quality and consumers outflow from the market that arises endogenously from their purchase decisions in this model the consumer faces a sequence of static discrete choice problems over a non stationary choice set we show that for a subclass of random utility models which include the multinomial logit and the mcfadden 1978 generalized extreme value gev model there exists a scalar valued sufficient statistic that determines the value of the option to postpone the purchase this allows us to model industry evolution over a vastly reduced state space and to formalize the consumer s decision of when to buy as an optimal stopping problem a solution to that problem defines the hazard rate of product adoptions while the nested discrete choice model determines the alternative specific purchase probabilities integrating individual decisions over the population distribution generates rich dynamics of aggregate and product level sales the paper proceeds to present monte carlo evidence that ignoring the time dimension of consumer choice will induce a downward bias in the estimates of consumer preferences over quality sometimes reversing the sign of the coefficients

conservation of mass and instability in a dynamic economy environment system abstract this paper considers a variant of the neumann leontief sraffa general equilibrium models in the context of a jointly determined economy environment system subject to a conversation of mass condition it shows that the conservation of mass contradicts the free disposal free gifts and non innovation assumptions of such models that an expanding economy will be associated with continuous disequilibrating change in the material transformations of both economy and environment and that this change is uncontrollable through the price system

empirical tests for stochastic dominance efficiency we derive empirical tests for the stochastic dominance efficiency of a given portfolio with respect to all possible portfolios constructed from a set of assets the tests can be computed using straightforward linear programming bootstrapping techniques and asymptotic distribution theory can approximate the sampling properties of the test results and allow for statistical inference our results could provide a stimulus to the further proliferation of stochastic dominance for the problem of portfolio selection and evaluation using our tests the fama and french market portfolio is significantly inefficient relative to benchmark portfolios formed on market capitalization and book to market equity ratio

the costs of carbon sequestration a revealed preference approach increased concem by policy makers with the threat of global climate change has brought with it considerable attention to the possibility of encouraging the growth of forests as a means of sequestering carbon dioxide national academy of sciences nas 1992 james p bruce et al 1996 1 the kyoto protocol to the united nations framework convention on climate change 1997 which establishes emission reduction targets for the united states and other industrialized nations states that carbon sequestration can be used by participating nations to achieve their targets moreover even before the kyoto agreement this approach had become an explicit element of both u s and intemational climate policies u s department of energy 1991 united nations general assembly 1992 william j clinton and albert gore 1993 this high level of interest has been due in part to suggestions that sufficient lands are available to use the approach to mitigate a substantial share of annual carbon dioxide c02 emissions greg marland 1988 daniel a lashof and dennis a tirpak 1989 mark c trexler 1991 and claims that growing trees to sequester carbon is a relatively inexpensive means of combating climate change roger a sedjo and allen m solomon 1989 daniel j dudek and alice leblanc 1990 nas 1992 in other words the serious attention given by policy makers to carbon sequestration can partly be explained by implicit assertions about respective marginal cost functions i develop and demonstrate a method by which the costs of carbon sequestration can be estimated on the basis of evidence from landowners behavior when confronted with the opportunity costs of alternative land uses the simplest of previous economic analyses derived single point estimates of average costs associated with particular sequestration levels marland 1988 sedjo and solomon 1989 dudek and leblanc 1990 edwin s rubin et al 1992 omar masera et al 1995 often it has been assumed that land opportunity costs are zero g van kooten et al 1992 j k winjum et al 1992 new york state energy office 1993 robert k dixon et al 1994 another set of studies essentially engineering costing models has constructed marginal cost schedules by using information on revenues and costs of production for altemative uses on representative types or locations of land and then sorting these in ascending order of cost robert j moulton and kenneth r richards 1990 richards et al 1993 simulation models include a model of the lost profits due to removing land from agricultural production peter j parks and ian w hardie 1995 a mathematical programming model of the agricultural sector and the timber market richard m adams et al 1993 a related model incorporating the effects of agricultural price support programs j m callaway and bruce mccarl 1996 and a dynamic simulation model of forestry susan swinehart 1996 lastly an analysis by andrew j plantinga 1995 adopts land use elasticities from an econometric study to estimate sequestration costs we draw on some of the best features of the previous studies including the carbon levelization method of moulton and richards john f kennedy school of government harvard university 79 john f kennedy street cambridge ma 02138 and resources for the future richard newell supplied excellent research assistance and valuable comments on a previous version were provided by lawrence goulder william nordhaus andrew plantinga kenneth richards two anonymous referees participants in seminars at the universities of california at los angeles and santa barbara the university of maryland the university of michigan the university of texas harvard university stanford university yale university resources for the future and the national bureau of economic research the author alone is resdonsible for any errors 1 after fossil fuel combustion deforestation is the second largest source of carbon dioxide emissions estimates of annual global emissions from deforestation range from 0 6 to 2 8 billion tons compared with slightly less than 6 0 billion tons annually from fossil fuel combustion cement manufacturing and natural gas flaring combined r a houghton 1991 t m smith et al 1993

optimizing the shares of native tree species in forest plantations with biased financial parameters abstract addressing uncertainty is a key requirement to follow the principle of precaution in sustainable ecosystem management the maximization of worst case outcomes according to the maximin decision rule based on the two parameters mean and variance of a financial indicator is a prominent approach to integrate uncertainty in decision making in forestry the problem of selecting the optimum tree species combination for a forest plantation investment can be seen as a problem of optimal portfolio selection to be solved according to the maximin decision rule yet it is well known that portfolios computed from expected means and variances are highly sensitive to changes in the estimated parameters the financial results may be poor if we rely too much on the historical data this paper tests an extended worst case model that considers a lower bound for the expected mean net present value npv of a tree species portfolio and an upper bound for its variance biased expected mean npvs variances and correlations for the tree species picea abies l karst spruce and fagus sylvatica l beech were used to test the variability of the resulting tree species portfolios 27 scenarios a comprehensive simulated data set which was adopted from an existing study and defined as the independent reference served to evaluate the financial performance of the tree species portfolios obtained from optimization with the biased data compared with the results of classical worst case optimization instances it was feasible to reduce the variability of tree species shares effectively when the optimization was carried out with the extended worst case approach furthermore the financial performance of this approach was better when tested with the independent data the worst case forest npvs achieved with the extended approach were on average 10 statistical confidence 0 95 or 147 statistical confidence 0 99 greater in comparison to the results of the classical approach the influence of the uncertainty parameter selection was tested and the results were discussed against the controversial viewpoints on the usefulness of the information gap decision theory finally the significance of our results for sustainable ecosystem management is pointed out

georgescu roegen s flow fund theory of production in retrospect abstract this paper provides a synthetic account of georgescu roegen s flow fund theory as a contribution to the history of ecological economics it reconstitutes georgescu roegen s perspective on production and its relationships with other frameworks such as the neoclassical production function and input output tables the overall purpose is to clearly establish the foundations of the flow fund theory and to introduce the research perspectives it opens for ecological economics the paper puts particular emphasis on the relationships between the flow fund framework and two other aspects of georgescu roegen s thought first his methodological perspective on economics and the role of mathematical models allows for a better understanding of the foundations of the flow fund theory second this framework incorporates georgescu roegen s interest in the physical dimension of the economic process and the implications of the laws of thermodynamics overall the paper concludes that the flow fund theory has solid foundations and thus represents a credible alternative to standard theories of production however in order to show how this framework can shed light on contemporary issues in ecological economics more applications are needed especially at the theoretical level the main challenge for future research is to develop such applications while trying to be faithful to the foundations of the flow fund theory

data envelopment analysis of mutual funds based on second order stochastic dominance abstract although data envelopment analysis dea has been extensively used to assess the performance of mutual funds mf most of the approaches overestimate the risk associated to the endogenous benchmark portfolio this is because in the conventional dea technology the risk of the target portfolio is computed as a linear combination of the risk of the assessed mf this neglects the important effects of portfolio diversification other approaches based on mean variance or mean variance skewness are non linear we propose to combine dea with stochastic dominance criteria thus in this paper six distinct dea like linear programming lp models are proposed for computing relative efficiency scores consistent in the sense of necessity with second order stochastic dominance ssd the aim is that being ssd efficient the obtained target portfolio should be an optimal benchmark for any rational risk averse investor the proposed models are compared with several related approaches from the literature

production consumption and general equilibrium with physical constraints abstract this paper analyzes the consequences of integrating the conservation laws of mass and energy into the microeconomic models of production consumption and general equilibrium we show that abstract models and especially general equilibrium theory are consistent with these physical constraints but most applied and environmental economic models are not we analyze the consequences of physical conservation laws for substitution possibilities and show that these constraints limit the number of independent substitution processes but not the value of the substitution elasticities finally we propose a method for integrating physical constraints into static microeconomic models with a minimum of changes

stochastic dominance and expected utility survey and analysis while stochastic dominance has been employed in various forms as early as 1932 it has only been since 1969 1970 that the notion has been developed and extensively employed in the area of economics finance agriculture statistics marketing and operations research in this survey the first second and third order stochastic dominance rules are discussed with an emphasis on the development in the area since the 1980s

land allocation under uncertainty for alternative specifications of return distributions using the expected utility moment generating function approach a land allocation rule is derived which is both independent of the nature of the underlying distribution of each element in the choice set and accounts for all moments of that distribution this decision rule is applied to the choice between cotton and corn in the mississippi delta to demonstrate that consideration of just the first two moments of the distribution can often be unjustified and damaging empirically theoretically and in terms of the utility of the decision maker

portfolio choice based on third degree stochastic dominance we develop an optimization method for constructing investment portfolios that dominate a given benchmark portfolio in terms of third degree stochastic dominance our approach relies on the properties of the semivariance function a refinement of an existing superconvex dominance condition and quadratic constrained programming we apply our method to historical stock market data using an industry momentum strategy our enhanced portfolio generates important performance improvements compared with alternatives based on mean variance dominance and second degree stochastic dominance relative to the center for research in security prices all share index our portfolio increases average out of sample return by almost seven percentage points per annum without incurring more downside risk using quarterly rebalancing and without short selling this paper was accepted by lauren cohen finance

policy dilemma of innovation an info gap approach abstract new ideas or technologies are often advocated because of their purported improvements on existing methods however what is new is usually less well known and less widely tested than what is old new methods may entail greater unknown dangers as well as greater potential advantages the policy maker who must choose between innovation and convention faces a dilemma of innovation we present a methodology based on info gap robustness to deal with the innovation dilemma we illustrate the approach by examining the policy decisions for managing the light brown apple moth in california

nonparametric comparative revealed risk aversion abstract we introduce a nonparametric method to compare risk aversion of different investors based on revealed preference methods using yaari s 1969 50 definition of more risk averse than we show that it is sufficient to compare the revealed preference relations of two investors this makes the approach operational the central rationalisability theorem provides strong support for this approach we also provide a measure of economic significance to quantify the differences in risk aversion which can also help to interpret differences in risk aversion in parametric models the approach is an alternative or complement to parametric approaches and a robustness check as a necessary first step towards this comparative approach we show how to test data for consistency with stochastic dominance relations which can also be used to recover larger parts of preferences we include an application to experimental data by choi et al 2007 10 11 which demonstrates the potential of the comparative approach

replacement cycles income distribution and dynamic price discrimination this article analyses how income distribution intellectual property rights and other regulatory policies such as minimum quality standards determine pricing strategies in a dynamic context where a monopolist periodically introduces new generations or upgrades of a durable good discrimination through quality and screening in this article takes place in a context where consumers buy several versions of the durable good during their lifetime instead of a single version as in inderst s 2008 or koh s 2006 it also differs from glass 2001 in that an equilibrium may emerge in which different consumer types replace their durable generations with different frequencies our modelling is motivated by stylized facts from the last brazilian pof household budget survey

the concept of weak sustainability abstract this paper surveys the links between growth theory with exhaustible resources and the concept of weak sustainability it examines the underlying assumptions behind this concept and questions the usefulness of the weak sustainability index as an indicator of sustainable development

stochastic dominance tests abstract we develop stochastic dominance tests of a given prospect compared with multiple choice alternatives we account for all types of preferences the tests are formulated in terms of linear as well as mip models and developed based on bayesian analysis which relies on novel markov chain monte carlo procedures empirical results indicate that the market portfolio is prospect stochastic dominance optimal this implies that there are s shaped utility functions that rationalize the market portfolio

the neoclassical maximization hypothesis comment in a recent paper in this review lawrence boland argues it is futile to criticize the neoclassical maximization hypothesis his argument is summarized as follows 1 there are only two types of criticism of any behavioral hypothesis once one has established its logical validity one can argue against the possibility of the hypothesized behavior or one can argue against the empirical truth of the premise of the hypothesis p 1031 boland hopes to show that neither of the two forms of criticism works against the maximization hypothesis 2 one cannot prove the logical impossibility of the maximization hypothesis attempts to do so fail for one of two reasons either one must assume that inductive proofs are necessary for true knowledge or one must assume that true knowledge is necessary for maximization see pp 1032 33 boland argues that neither assumption can be maintained 3 regarding empirical criticism the methodological problems of empirical refutations of economic theories are widely accepted p 1033 4 even were this not true the logical form of the maximization hypothesis an all and some statement makes it neither verifiable nor refutable e ven if one could prove that a consumer is not maximizing utility this would not constitute a refutation of the neoclassical hypothesis p 1034 because one can always claim that the consumer was maximizing something that is something other than utility 5 finally this does not imply that the hypothesis is necessarily a tautology the hypothesis is best considered an untestable metaphysical statement which is an essential component of the neoclassical research program points 3 and 5 above attributed to boland are acceptable as stated they are related points the empirical problems mentioned in point 3 are sufficient to establish the untestability of the maximization hypothesis which supports the conclusion in point 5 the purpose of this comment is to criticize points 1 2 and 4 specifically it is shown that though there are only two forms of logically compelling criticism many other forms of criticism that are useful exist and that given a broader interpretation of the term criticism boland s remarks about proofs of logical impossibility though correct miss the point of what critics of the maximization hypothesis tried to do an alternative to boland s characterization of the maximization hypothesis as an all and some statement one more consistent with well known developments in philosophy of science is also presented in the final section it is shown that boland s approach of necessity neglects some widely known and relevant developments in the methodological literature

revocability and reversibility in societal decision making abstract reversibility and irreversibility are poorly defined in the decision making literature defining reversibility as the ability to maintain and to restore the functional performance of a system is consistent with thermodynamics specification of its crucial terms is case dependent reversibility is coming in degrees from flexibility over rigidity to preclusion with irreversibility as an absolute end further substantiating reversibility considers three variables duration of impacts revoking costs and substitutability substitutability depends on weights assigned to the strict identity or to the functional performance of something valued for given degrees of substitutability revocability of an action is measurable in time dependent revoking costs together with future time and doubt reversibility sets a three dimensional context for societal decision making revealing domes of expanding complexity cost benefit analysis is a useful decision tool at lower complexity but falters at high complexity because there prevail non monetary trade offs a revival and proper use of the concept reversibility are recommended for improved dialog on major societal issues with climate change outstanding as the case where reversibility could turn into absolute irreversibility also shown is the correspondence between reversibility and ecological concepts like resilience lock in tipping points and others

developments in non expected utility theory the hunt for a descriptive theory of choice under risk this article reviews recent developments in the economic theory of individual decision making under risk since the 1950s it has been known that individual choices violate the standard model of expected utility in predictable ways considerable research effort has now been devoted to the project of developing a superior descriptive model following an overview of non expected utility theories which distinguishes between conventional and non conventional approaches the paper seeks to assess these alternative models in terms of empirical success using laboratory and field data and theoretical usefulness the closing sections reflect on some new directions emerging in this literature

unanticipated shocks and the maintenance and replacement of durable goods abstract this paper investigates how a durable goods owner responds to a once for all unanticipated shock in a stationary state market this problem is examined in the context of housing the circumstances are determined under which a landlord will respond in each of the following five ways i abandon his building immediately ii run down his building optimally and then abandon iii operate his building forever iv demolish his building immediately and reconstruct a new building on the site and v run down his building demolish it and reconstruct a new building on the site the analogous cases for other durable goods should be obvious

georgescu roegen versus solow stiglitz daly is right to be concerned about our society s use of resources environmental degradation and the wasteful use of natural resources or any resources for that matter are of concern daly s tirade concerning our work seems motivated by two concerns a lack of consistency with basic laws of physics and the alleged implication that growth can continue unabated without eventually facing constraints imposed by the limited supply of natural resources part of the problem arises from a lack of understanding of the role of the kind of analytic models that we and others have formulated they are intended to help us answer questions like for the intermediate run for the next 50 60 years is it possible that growth can be sustained what does this possibility entail we write down models as if they extend out to infinity but no one takes these limits seriously for one thing an exponential increase in the population presents almost unimaginable problems of congestion on our limited planet in this intermediate run capital can substitute for natural resources and this is true even though capital itself uses resources more precise machines made out of resources that are relatively abundant can reduce wastage of resources that are relatively scarce technical change some of which is the result of investments in rd and increased efficiency in production may imply less wastage of bauxite and less coal or oil to produce the energy used to make a pound of aluminum or consider the resources that were required to run a regression only a half century ago pounds and pounds of heavy calculating machines replaced by mere ounces of a modern calculator changes in technology also allow us to recycle resources more efficiently so that the amount that is not recaptured for future production may be reduced perhaps the most important question is where does all of this lead us resources are scarce and markets when they function well reflect that scarcity economizing on the use of resources there are important instances especially where the environment and natural resources are concerned where markets do not work well there are for instance the classic problems posed by pollution externalities when markets do not

diversification consistent data envelopment analysis with general deviation measures abstract we propose new efficiency tests which are based on traditional dea models and take into account portfolio diversification the goal is to identify the investment opportunities that perform well without specifying our attitude to risk we use general deviation measures as the inputs and return measures as the outputs we discuss the choice of the set of investment opportunities including portfolios with limited number of assets we compare the optimal values efficiency scores of all proposed tests leading to the relations between the sets of efficient opportunities strength of the tests is then discussed we test the efficiency of 25 world financial indices using new dea models with cvar deviation measures

how do households choose quality and time to replacement for a rapidly improving durable good abstract many durable goods particularly in the high technology sector of the economy experience rapid quality improvement as a result replacement is typically due to obsolescence rather than breakdown and replacement cycles are relatively short when these goods are vertically differentiated consumers must make two important inter related choices upon making a purchase what quality level to buy and how long to wait between purchases in this paper we analyze how these two decisions relate to underlying preferences and to each other both theoretically and empirically we demonstrate how a single tenuous assumption in a commonly used theoretical model can drive the relationships we would predict when we take this model to the data this highlights the necessity of a more direct empirical analysis in our empirics we show that quality choice and replacement cycle length rcl are generally positively correlated we also find evidence of non monotonic relationships between quality choice and marginal utility of quality and rcl choice and marginal utility of money that is households who value quality more don t always buy higher quality pcs and households who value money less don t always buy more frequently ceteris paribus our results provide new insights into the nature of durable goods demand the proper characterization of markets and market segments and welfare measures

the economic consequences of substituting carbon payments for crop subsidies in u s agriculture there is a growing body of literature on the costs of sequestering carbon however no studies have examined the interplay between farm commodity programs and carbon sequestration programs this study investigates two dimensions of the interaction between farm commodity programs and afforestation programs using a price endogenous sector model of agriculture in the united states first this study compares the fiscal and welfare costs of achieving specific carbon targets through afforestation with and without current farm programs second it examines the welfare fiscal and carbon consequences of replacing existing farm subsidies wholly or in part with payments for carbon two approaches hicksian and marshallian are investigated in the first the sector model is used to quantify the carbon consequences and fiscal costs associated with various combinations of farm commodity and carbon sequestration programs that leave consumers and producers in the u s agricultural sector no worse off than under existing farm programs the second approach focuses on the carbon and welfare consequences of various farm commodity and carbon sequestration programs that hold total program fiscal costs constant at current levels althouth the methodology and data are applied to the united states the issues addressed are common in a number of developed nations particularly within the european union eu adapting existing sector models in these nations to perform similar analyses would provide policy makers with more precise information about the nature of the trade offs involved with second best policies for replacing farm commodity subsidies with tree planting subsidies

mean lower partial moment valuation and lognormally distributed returns in this paper we develop a capital asset pricing model in a mean lower partial moment framework specifically we show that when partial moments are computed about the expected risky portfolio return optimal portfolio choice in a mean lower partial framework permits a two fund portfolio separation between a riskless asset and a market portfolio of risky assets in this new framework risk is measured as semideviation for second degree stochastic dominance and semivariance for third degree stochastic dominance further when security returns are lognormally distributed and small risk this new mean lower partial moment valuation specializes to the mean logarithmic variance capital asset pricing model

irreversibility and uncertainty cause an intergenerational equity efficiency trade off abstract two important policy goals in intergenerational problems are pareto efficiency and sustainability i e intergenerational equity we demonstrate that the pursuit of these goals is subject to an intergenerational equity efficiency trade off our analysis highlights two salient characteristics of intergenerational problems and policy i temporal irreversibility i e the inability to revise one s past actions and ii uncertainty of future consequences of present actions in human environment systems we employ a two non overlapping generations model that combines an intragenerational production decision on the use of circulating capital and a non renewable resource with a negative intergenerational externality as an unforeseen contingency if initially unknown problems become apparent and policy is enacted after irreversible actions were taken policy making faces a fundamental trade off between ex post pareto efficiency and sustainability that is one can achieve either one of these two goals but not both

marginal conditional stochastic dominance this paper introduces the concept of marginal conditional stochastic dominance mcsd which states the conditions under which all risk averse individuals when presented with a given portfolio prefer to increase the share of one risky asset over that of another mcsd rules also answer the question of whether all risk averse individuals include a new asset in their portfolio when assets returns are correlated mcsd criteria are expressed in terms of the probability distributions of the assets and of the underlying portfolio an empirical application of mcsd is provided using stocks traded on the new york stock exchange mcsd rules are used to show that in the long run one cannot assert that the market portfolio is inefficient

variance vs downside risk is there really that much difference abstract the popularity of downside risk among investors is growing and mean return downside risk portfolio selection models seem to oppress the familiar mean variance approach the reason for the success of the former models is that they separate return fluctuations into downside risk and upside potential this is especially relevant for asymmetrical return distributions for which mean variance models punish the upside potential in the same fashion as the downside risk the paper focuses on the differences and similarities between using variance or a downside risk measure both from a theoretical and an empirical point of view we first discuss the theoretical properties of different downside risk measures and the corresponding mean downside risk models against common beliefs we show that from the large family of downside risk measures only a few possess better theoretical properties within a return risk framework than the variance on the empirical side we analyze the differences between some us asset allocation portfolios based on variances and downside risk measures among other things we find that the downside risk approach tends to produce on average slightly higher bond allocations than the mean variance approach furthermore we take a closer look at estimation risk viz the effect of sampling error in expected returns and risk measures on portfolio composition on the basis of simulation analyses we find that there are marked differences in the degree of estimation accuracy which calls for further research

portfolio selection in multidimensional general and partial moment space abstract this paper develops a general approach for the single period portfolio optimization problem in a multidimensional general and partial moment space a shortage function is defined that looks for possible increases in odd moments and decreases in even moments a main result is that this shortage function ensures sufficient conditions for global optimality it also forms a natural basis for developing tests on the influence of additional moments furthermore a link is made with an approximation of an arbitrary order of a general indirect utility function this non parametric efficiency measurement framework permits to differentiate mainly between portfolio efficiency and allocative efficiency finally information can in principle be inferred about the revealed risk aversion prudence temperance and other higher order risk characteristics of investors

two conceptions of economics and maximisation fil crespo ricardo fernando consejo nacional de investigaciones cientificas y tecnicas argentina universidad austral instituto de altos estudios argentina

making inefficient market indices efficient this paper uses the concept of marginal conditional stochastic dominance and a generalization of the 50 portfolio rule to develop a tractable and parsimonious methodology for constructing a second degree stochastic dominance ssd efficient portfolio from a given inefficient index because the ssd approach considers the entire probability distributions of asset returns the resulting portfolios are efficient with respect to all risk averse utility maximizing investors regardless of the form of their utility functions or the distributions of asset returns

a characterization of the ssd efficient frontier of portfolio weights by means of a set of mixed integer linear constraints in this paper the set of all second order stochastic dominance ssd efficient portfolios is characterized by using a series of mixed integer linear constraints our derivation employs a combination of the first order conditions of the utility maximization problem together with a judicious use of binary variables this result opens the door to the formulation of optimizations whose objective function is free to select a particular portfolio out of the entire ssd efficient set this paper was accepted by jerome detemple finance