willingness of rural communities to adopt biogas systems in pakistan critical factors and policy implications abstract biogas is a methane rich gas that is produced by the anaerobic fermentation of organic material such as animal dung pakistan has the sixth largest livestock based economy in the world and thus demonstrates great potential for biogas production the government has already started the biogas support program bsp in a few selected areas of the country with that in mind this study was designed to determine a household s predicted willingness to adopt a biogas system in khyber pakhtunkhwa kp province the study is based on primary data collected from four districts peshawar nowshera charsadda and mardan data was collected from 200 livestock farming households selected through an equal allocation technique probit analysis was used to identify those factors influencing the willingness of a household to adopt a biogas system the results of the probit model reveal that the education level of the respondents total daily electric shortfall the effect of electric shortfall on childrens education and female drudgery and respondents awareness regarding the pros and cons of using biogas were statistically significant factors on the basis of p

do central bank forecasts influence private agents forecasting performance versus signals focusing on a set of central banks that publish their internal macroeconomic forecasts in real time enables one to shed light on the expectations channel of monetary policy the main contribution of this paper is to assess whether central bank forecasts influence private forecasts the response is positive for inflation forecasts in sweden the uk and japan to disentangle the sources of influence of central banks two concepts are proposed endogenous influence which is due to more accurate central bank forecasts and exogenous influence which is due to central bank signals on either future policy decisions or private information original empirical evidence on the central bank forecasting performance relative to private agents is provided and estimates show that in sweden more accurate inflation forecasts generate specific central bank influence that is different from the influence from signals the publication of forecasts may therefore refer to two central banking strategies that aim to shape private expectations forecasting or policymaking

resale price maintenance in an oligopoly with uncertain demand abstract this paper considers a model where oligopolistic manufacturers sell to consumers through competitive retailers who face demand uncertainty the setup is a symmetric duopoly with product differentiation and a perfectly competitive retail market in the game with unconstrained price competition there is price dispersion in the retail market in the game with resale price maintenance rpm manufacturers profits are higher retail inventories are at least as high and total surplus is at least as high the effect of rpm on consumer surplus is ambiguous rpm also precludes possible coordination failure between the manufacturers

fundamental analysis future earnings and stock prices in this paper we investigate how detailed financial statement data fundamental signals enter the decisions of market participants by examining whether current changes in the signals are informative about subsequent earnings changes our approach is consistent with the view expressed by penman 1992 and others that predicting accounting earnings as opposed to explaining security returns should be the central task of fundamental analysis studying the links between fundamental signals and future earnings changes allows us to test directly the validity of the economic intuition that underlies the original construction of the signals an alternative and less direct approach followed by lev and thiagarajan 1993 henceforth lt is based on an examination of the relations between the fundamental signals and contemporaneous returns

does competition reduce price dispersion new evidence from the airline industry we analyze the effects of competition on price dispersion in the airline industry using panel data from 1993 q1 through 2006 q3 competition has a negative effect on price dispersion in line with the textbook treatment of price discrimination this effect is pronounced for routes with consumers characterized by relatively heterogeneous elasticities of demand on routes with a homogeneous customer base the effects of competition on price dispersion are smaller our results contrast with those of borenstein and rose who found that price dispersion increases with competition we reconcile the different results by showing that the cross sectional estimator suffers from omitted variable bias

productivity market power and capacity utilization when spot markets are complete our test of price taking behavior looks at the choice of capacity rather than the choice of output it is motivated by a complete spot markets model in which goods are distinguished by the selling probabilities in addition to other characteristics when output is explained by total man hours and a capacity utilization proxy the coefficient of the first variable is the elasticity of capacity with respect to fixed labor under competition and risk neutrality this coefficient is equal to an average labor share we use this observation to interpret abbot griliches hausman s regressions and to argue that once the capacity utilization proxy is included in the regression hall s data at the manufacturing level fail to reject the joint hypothesis of competition and risk neutrality it is also argued that the coefficient of total man hours does not tell us anything about monopoly power once the capacity utilization proxy is omitted from the regression this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

the wisdom of competitive crowds when several individuals are asked to forecast an uncertain quantity they often face implicit or explicit incentives to be the most accurate despite the desire to elicit honest forecasts such competition induces forecasters to report strategically and nontruthfully the question we address is whether the competitive crowd s forecast the average of strategic forecasts is more accurate than the truthful crowd s forecast the average of truthful forecasts from the same forecasters we analyze a forecasting competition in which a prize is awarded to the forecaster whose point forecast is closest to the actual outcome before reporting a forecast we assume each forecaster receives two signals one common and one private these signals represent the forecasters past shared and personal experiences relevant for forecasting the uncertain quantity of interest in a set of equilibrium results we characterize the nature of the strategic forecasts in this game as the correlation among the forecasters priva

distribution contracts to support optimal inventory holdings under demand uncertainty abstract when suppliers produce products for which demand is uncertain they face a problem of inducing downstream distributors to stock inventory levels that the suppliers prefer this paper considers a wide array of alternative supply contracts each of which consists of a mixture of constant per unit wholesale prices buy back arrangements and post sale payments contingent on sales made such as revenue sharing or buybacks we show that linear supply contracts specifying any combination of two of these three instruments can implement the vertical integrated outcome for a monopoly thereby generating the supplier s preferred inventory configuration and price distribution we extend our results to differentiated product oligopoly demonstrating that each supplier obtains its preferred inventory configuration and price distribution given the choices of its rival distributors choose optimal inventories from the suppliers standpoint even if suppliers do not know the distribution of demand uncertainty and given the perfect competition among distributors all profits in the supply chain are captured by suppliers thus suppliers are able to deal with demand uncertainty with remarkably little information about demand and without the need to control dealer actions in detail in particular suppliers need not specify either dealer inventories or resale prices but instead encourage distributors to order based on information in their possession and to set prices that generate desirable resale price dispersion

earnings skewness and analyst forecast bias abstract we argue that if analysts objective is to provide the most accurate forecast by minimizing the mean absolute forecast error then the optimal forecast is the median instead of the mean earnings forecast bias is observed when the median is different from the mean in a skewed earnings distribution thus part of the observed analyst forecast bias could be a result of analysts efforts to improve forecast accuracy when the earnings distribution is skewed we find that earnings skewness is significantly related to analyst forecast bias we also provide evidence that the market adjusts for part of the skewness induced bias

price dispersion over the business cycle evidence from the airline industry this study provides empirical evidence documenting how price dispersion moves with the business cycle in the airline industry performing a fixed effects panel analysis on seventeen years of data covering two business cycles we find that price dispersion is highly pro cyclical this effect is especially pronounced for legacy carriers relative to low cost carriers we show that our empirical result is consistent with firms implementing second degree price discrimination tactics

separating between unobserved consumer types evidence from airlines we propose an alternative approach to identify unobserved consumer types and assess whether firms price discriminate unlike other screening schemes that rely on quantity discounts or product differentiation in our finite mixture structure individuals have unit demands and the product is homogeneous we implement the model using an original u s airlines data set the results support the existence of two demand types the high type business traveler is less price sensitive has a higher valuation and pays a higher price than the low type tourist the proportion of high types also increases as the departure date nears jel c23 l93 r41

using yield management to shift demand when the peak time is unknown traditional peak load and stochastic peak load models assume firms have prior information about when peak demand occurs however price dispersion such as is typically used by firms practicing yield management can achieve some of the same efficient demand shifting even when the peak time is unknown equilibrium price dispersion arises because of stochastic demand and price rigidities but a previously unexplored benefit of price dispersion is its ability to reduce equilibrium capacity costs through demand shifting the model also suggests how yield management now more commonly called revenue management might actually benefit business travellers contrary to the popular prejudice

note the newsvendor model with endogenous demand this paper considers a firm s price and inventory policy when it faces uncertain demand that depends on both price and inventory level the authors extend the classic newsvendor model by assuming that expected utility maximizing consumers choose between visiting the firm and consuming an exogenous outside option the outside option represents the utility the consumer forgoes when she chooses to visit the firm before knowing whether or not the product will be available the authors investigate both the case in which the firm s price is exogenous and the case in which price is chosen optimally the paper makes two contributions first the authors show that the firm holds more inventories provides a higher fill rate attracts more customers and earns higher profits when it internalizes the effect of its inventory on demand second the authors show that in the endogenous price case the firm s two dimensional decision problem can be reduced to two sequential single variable optimizations as a result the endogenous price case is as easy to solve as the exogenous price case

toward a theory of competitive price adjustment in his 1959 essay toward a theory of price adjustment arrow argued that there exists a logical gap in the usual formulations of the theory of perfectly competitive economy namely that there is no place for a rational decision with respect to prices as there is with respect to quantities see also koopmans 1957 this gap is especially felt in macroeconomics where the basic framework is that of perfect competition and many results depend on the existence of some lag in the adjustment of prices here i propose a first step toward a theory of price adjustment in a competitive environment i shall consider here a simple exchange economy with no money the application to the question of the real effects of changes in the money supply is discussed in a separate paper eden 1980 the main cost of adjustment considered here is the cost of information about changes in aggregate excess demand the question is who will gather and pay for the information this public good problem is analysed in a model in which the artificial entity of the auctioneer is replaced by firms sellers who seek information about excess demand and announce the prices of their products the public good aspect of the problem emerges when there is a unique optimal price which would be announced on the basis of old information shared by all participants then if a single firm buys new information and announces a different price all firms which are aware of this revised price will rightly think that it is based on updated information and will therefore follow the lead in this case the announced price transmits all the relevant new information to all firms and the firm that updates the information therefore provides that public good which in the walrasian model is provided by the auctioneer 2 the question is which firm will undertake the function of the auctioneer the solution suggested here is that all firms will adopt a mixed strategy in which they undertake this function with a certain probability it is shown however that there is always a positive probability that the prices advertised in a particular market will not be based on updated information since otherwise there would be no incentive to buy information in the second section i describe the process of advertising prices for the case in which the aggregate demand that sellers in a particular market face is exogenously given and infinitely elastic i then discuss the type of framework required to justify such demand curves and show that in general the walrasian price is not the average of advertised prices

the forecast accuracy of individual analysts evidence of systematic optimism and pessimism o brien 1990 examines the annual earnings forecast accuracy of individual analysts reporting to the institutional brokers estimate system ibes of lynch jones and ryan during july 1975 september 1982 using a regression model which adjusts for average firm and year effects o brien finds no evidence of differential forecast accuracy comparing individual analysts earnings forecasts to median consensus forecasts during 1983 86 we also find no statistically significant evidence of differential analyst forecast accuracy our result however does not mean that one analyst s forecasts are much like another s we find that analysts are persistently optimistic or pessimistic relative to consensus forecasts we examine this persistent behavior and its effect on measures of forecast accuracy over a sample

dynamic competition with random demand and costless search a theory of price posting this paper studies a dynamic model of perfectly competitive price posting under demand uncertainty firms must produce output in advance after observing aggregate sales in prior periods firms post prices for their unsold output in each period the demand of a new batch of consumers is randomly activated existing customers who have not yet bought and then new customers arrive at the market in random order observe the posted prices and either purchase at the lowest available price or delay their purchase decision we construct a sequential equilibrium in which the output produced and its allocation across consumers is efficient thus consumers endogenously sort themselves efficiently with the highest valuations purchasing first transaction prices in each period rise continuously as firms become more optimistic about demand followed by a market correction by the last period prices are market clearing

conservatism and cross sectional variation in the post earnings announcement drift accounting conservatism allows me to identify a previously undocumented source of predictable cross sectional variation in standardized unexpected earnings autocorrelations viz the sign of the most recent earnings realization and present evidence that the market ignores this variation loss effect it is possible to earn returns higher than from the bernard and thomas 1990 strategy by incorporating this feature additionally the paper shows that the loss effect is different from the cross quarter effect shown by rangan and sloan 1998 and it is possible to combine the two effects to earn returns higher than either strategy alone thus the paper corroborates the bernard and thomas finding that stock prices fail to reflect the extent to which quarterly earnings series differ from a seasonal random walk and extends it by showing that the market systematically underestimates time series properties resulting from accounting conservatism

dissemination of cooking energy alternatives in india a review abstract energy requirements for cooking account for 36 of total primary energy consumption in india the rural and urban populaces depend mainly on non commercial fuels to meet their energy needs diverse urban growth patterns have led to structural changes in economy and have important ramifications on energy consumption in household sector it is observed that india follows income based ladder starting with fuelwood and ending with sophisticated fuels like liquefied petroleum gas lpg and electricity this paper discusses cooking energy dissemination in the country with an objective of understanding the underlying socioeconomic factors governing the utilization of various fuels energy carriers in cooking the diffusion of renewable energy devices is observed to be far below their estimated potential policy interventions required for better dissemination of renewable energy based devices are also discussed

loss function assumptions in rational expectations tests on financial analysts earnings forecasts abstract prior research concludes that financial analysts do not process public information efficiently in generating their earnings forecasts the ordinary least squares ols regression based tests used in prior studies assume implicitly that analysts face a quadratic loss function in contrast we argue that analysts likely face a linear loss function and hence try to minimize their absolute forecast errors we conduct and compare rational expectations tests using these two alternative loss functions we reproduce most prior findings of forecast inefficiency with ols regressions but find virtually no evidence of forecast inefficiency with least absolute deviation regressions where we explicitly assume a linear loss function

the inefficiency of the mean analyst forecast as a summary forecast of earnings we show analytically that mean analyst forecasts inefficiently aggregate information by assigning too much weight to analysts common information relative to their private information when used as a summary forecast measure of forthcoming earnings a more precise summary forecast of earnings than the current mean forecast is the current mean forecast plus a positive multiple of the change in the mean forecast

the relative and complementary performance of analyst and security price based measures of expected earnings abstract this paper evaluates the relative performance of ibes consensus financial analyst forecasts and forecasts based upon the anticipatory behaviour of security prices according to two criteria a the accuracy of earnings growth predictions and b the contemporaneous association between unexpected earnings and security returns during the forecast year results are presented for firms in differing size groups measured here by market capitalization the results indicate that neither forecast source is superior to the other in terms of either criterion there is however significant complementarity of financial analyst and price based forecasts

a theory of clearance sales clearance sales are widely used by firms as an intertemporal selling policy in particular in markets where firms face demand uncertainty and need to choose capacity in advance clearance sales consist in charging a high price initially but then lowering the price in the sales period high valuation consumers purchase the good at the high initial price so as to avoid rationing at the low price while low valuation consumers wait for the price to drop we develop a simple model of intertemporal monopoly pricing under demand uncertainty and show that clearance sales may be the optimal intertemporal selling policy

demand uncertainty inventories and resale price maintenance we show that a manufacturer facing uncertain demand and selling through a competitive retail market may wish to support adequate retail inventories by preventing the emergence of discount retailers in our model discounters offer low prices made possible by low probability of being saddled with unsold inventories in the event of slack demand full price retailers are compensated for a higher probability of unsold inventories by a higher retail price when they sell we show that preventing discounting increases the manufacturer s wholesale demand and profits and we delineate demand conditions under which equilibrium inventory holding and consumer welfare increase

dynamic pricing advance sales and aggregate demand learning in airlines this paper uses a unique u s airlines panel data set to empirically study the dynamic pricing of inventories with uncertain demand over a finite horizon i estimate a dynamic pricing equation and a dynamic demand equation that jointly characterize the adjustment process between prices and sales as the flight date nears i find that the price increases as the inventory decreases and decreases as there is less time to sell consistent with aggregate demand learning and price adjustment demand shocks have a positive and much larger effect on prices than the positive effect of anticipated sales

beyond fuelwood savings valuing the economic benefits of introducing improved biomass cookstoves in the purepecha region of mexico article i nfo half of the world population relies on biomass for cooking with very significant health as well as climate change impacts improved cookstoves have been disseminated as an alternative to reduce these impacts however few detailed studies about the economic benefits of improved cookstoves ics interventions including environmental and health co benefits exist to date in this paper we perform a comprehensive economic evaluation of a dissemination program of ics in rural mexico the resulting cost benefit analysis cba of the patsari improved cookstove is presented utilizing estimation of direct costs and benefits including fuelwood savings income generation health impacts environmental conservation and reduction in greenhouse gas emissions the analysis is based on comprehensive data obtained through monitoring studies carried out in the study area from 2003 to the present results show that patsari cookstoves represent a viable economic option for improving living conditions of the poorest inhabitants of rural mexico with benefit cost ratios estimated between 11 4 1 and 9 1 the largest contributors to economic benefits stemmed from fuelwood savings and reductions in health impacts which constituted 53 and 28 of the overall benefit respectively

analysis of the energy access improvement and its socio economic impacts in rural areas of developing countries abstract access to modern energy is one of the most basic requirements for development in rural areas of developing countries there are a large number of people who do not have access to lpg and depend on traditional biomass such as wood crop and dung for cooking in addition energy has numerous and complex links with poverty reduction therefore it is important to estimate the impacts of energy access improvement on socio economic situation in the rural areas of developing countries quantitatively this study focuses on socio economic impacts of cooking demand through changes in stoves adopted by the rural households we have developed an energy economic model of rural areas in india to analyze the links between energy income and health hazard applying both opportunity cost for using fuelwood and exposure to resipirable suspended particulate matter rspm as a result of the analysis there is a positive relation between the opportunity cost and the average rspm exposure of women in the rural areas following to increase in the opportunity cost that is income the cost of an improved wood stove becomes relatively lower first than that of a traditional wood stove and then a gas stove attains price competitiveness it is achieved that the average rspm exposure is below the who and japanese criteria for suspended particulate matter spm 190 and 100 g m3 at the opportunity cost of us 9 and 15 gj respectively

airline pricing under different market conditions evidence from european low cost carriers abstract traditional theories of airline pricing maintain that fares monotonically increase as fewer seats remain available on a flight this implies a monotonically increasing temporal profile of fares in this paper we exploit the presence of drops in offered fares over time as an indicator of an active yield management intervention by two main european low cost carriers and measure its effectiveness we find that reduction of the offered airfare by one standard deviation raises a flight s load factor on average by 2 7 percent a measure unaffected by the intensity of competition in a route furthermore yield management interventions are less effective the higher the share of leisure holiday and visiting friends and relatives traffic on the route this result runs counter to the common perception of leisure passengers being more responsive to price changes

consensus forests of corporate earnings analysts forecasts and time series methods an alternative to using a single forecasting method is to average the forecasts made by various methods in this paper we examine empirically combinations of financial analysts forecasts and forecasts from time series methods in order to predict corporate earnings per share we conclude that on average the primary forecasting advantages of analysts over time series methods based on annual data appear to occur over short forecast horizons less than a year neither analysts nor other time series methods substantially outperform a random walk prediction of no change when forecasts are made near the beginning of the fiscal year for predictions in the first half of the fiscal year there is evidence of forecasting benefits from combining time series and analysts forecasts especially if there are few analysts forecasts

product variety and demand uncertainty why markups vary with quality we demonstrate that demand uncertainty can explain equilibrium product variety in the presence of sunk costs product variety is an efficient response to uncertainty because it reduces the expected costs associated with excess capacity we find that within the firm s product line the highest quality product has the highest profit margin but the lowest percentage margin while the lowest quality product has the highest percentage margin but the lowest absolute margin both of these relationships are consistent with evidence available from marketing studies what determines the breadth of a firm s product line we show that when production costs must be sunk in anticipation of demand demand uncertainty can lead to an increase in product variety by limiting their inventory of high quality goods and selling low quality goods once their high quality goods have stocked out firms reduce the costs associated with demand uncertainty the model helps explain the extent of product differentiation and suggests a rationale for many common retailing practices such as the use of private labels and full product line forcing by manufacturers the model also yields the testable empirical prediction that higher quality products earn higher absolute margins and lower percentage margins while differences in preferences provide a convincing explanation in many cases for product variety in retail stores we argue that another

retracted factors affecting commercial energy consumption in pakistan progress in energy the purpose of this study is to identify major macroeconomic factors that enhance energy consumption for pakistan through the cointegration error correction model and granger causality tests over a 32 year time period i e between 1980 and 2011 the study employed the bivariate cointegration technique to estimate the long run relationship between the variables an error correction model was used to determine the short run dynamics of the system while granger causality test was used to find the directions between these variables the study investigates the relation between four energy consumption variables i e oil petroleum consumption gas consumption electricity consumption and coal consumption and four macroeconomic factors which have further sub classifications i e balance of payment bop factors i e exports imports trade deficit worker s remittances and current account balance fuel factors i e carbon dioxide emissions natural resource depletion and net forest depletion agricultural crops yield per hectare i e wheat rice sugarcane maize and cotton and industrial production items i e beverages cigarettes motor tyres motor tubes cycle tyres and cycle tubes in order to manage robust data analysis the result confirms the long run relationship between total commercial energy consumption and macroeconomic factors in pakistan as oil petroleum consumption increases exports fuel factors agricultural crops yield per hectare and industrial items however the intensity of these factors are different in nature carbon dioxide emissions net forest depletion beverages motor tyres and motor tubes are more elastic with oil petroleum consumption however oil petroleum consumption decreases trade deficit and workers remittances in pakistan gas electricity and coal consumption increases agricultural crops yield per hectare and industrial production which shows that as agriculture and industry modernizes energy demand increases energizing the food production chain is an essential feature of agricultural development which is a prime factor in helping to achieve food security in pakistan the empirical results only moderately support the conventional view that energy consumption has significant long run casual effect on macroeconomic variables in pakistan the present study finds evident of unidirectional causality between the commercial energy consumption factors and macroeconomic factors in pakistan however there is some bidirectional causality exist which is running between electricity consumption ec and exports ec to imports ec to carbon emissions ec to natural resource depletion nrd and ec to wheat the results conclude that macroeconomic variables tend to positively respond to total primary energy consumption this indicates that increasing total commercial energy consumption may cause growth variables which show that pakistan is an input driven economy

the accuracy of interest rate forecasts in the asia pacific region opportunities for portfolio management we analysed interest rate forecasts from australia china hong kong india indonesia malaysia new zealand singapore south korea taiwan and thailand we assessed 532 forecast time series with

efficient barriers to trade a sequential trade model with heterogeneous agents abstract this paper studies the choice of tariffs and other type of consumption taxes and subsidies in a flexible price version of the prescott prescott edward c 1975 efficiency of the natural rate journal of political economy 83 1229 1236 hotels model it is shown that a country with unstable demand may benefit from a tariff on imports more surprisingly the exporting country may also benefit from the tariff in general i consider the problem of a world planner who chooses country specific consumption taxes and subsidies i show that buyers in countries that tend to consume relatively more in the high demand state should be taxed and buyers in countries that tend to consume relatively more in the low demand state should be subsidized

the relation between price and marginal cost in u s industry an examination of data on output and labor input reveals that some u s industries have marginal cost well below price the conclusion rests on the finding that cyclical variations in labor input are small compared with variations in output in booms firms produce substantially more output and sell it for a price that exceeds the costs of the added inputs the paper documents the disparity between price and marginal cost where marginal cost is estimated from annual variations in cost it considers a variety of explanations of the findings that are consistent with competition but none is found to be completely plausible

the cyclical behavior of marginal cost and price the author examines the cyclical behavior of price marginal cost margins for u s manufac turing after 1956 short run marginal cost is markedly procyclical this is primarily due to procyclical overtime payments incurred beca use employment is not perfectly flexible in most industries output price fails to respond to the cyclical movement in marginal cost so price marginal cost margins are markedly countercyclical the res ults contradict business cycle theories that explain low production i n a recession by a high real cost of producing they support theories that explain low production in a recession by the inability of firms to sell their output copyright 1987 by american economic association

systematic peak load pricing congestion premia and demand diverting empirical evidence abstract this paper finds empirical support to systematic peak load pricing in airlines higher fares in ex ante known congested periods it estimates a congestion premia and supports the main empirical prediction in gale and holmes gale i holmes t 1993 advance purchase discounts and monopoly allocation of capacity american economic review 83 135 146 less discount seats on peak flights

asymmetric capacity constraints and equilibrium price dispersion abstract price dispersion arises despite perfect information about prices in equilibrium the higher capacity firm adopts a high price high availability strategy the lower capacity firm adopts a low price low availability strategy and consumers are more likely to shop at the high price firm

what makes people adopt improved cookstoves empirical evidence from rural northwest pakistan abstract large dependence of the world population on biomass fuels for domestic energy consumption is one of the major anthropogenic causes of deforestation worldwide the use of biomass in inefficient ways in rural areas increases fuelwood demand of a household development of the improved biomass stove programs in the 1970s has been one of the efforts to reduce burden on biomass resource base through reliable and efficient methods of energy consumption however despite having multiple economic social environmental and health benefits the improved stove dissemination programs failed to capture worldwide recognition a wide array of socio cultural economic political and institutional barriers contributes to the low adoption rate of such programs drawing on field work surveys in rural northwest pakistan this paper provides empirical evidence of individual household and community level variables that play a vital role in the adoption of improved cookstoves the study is based on primary data collected from 100 randomly selected households in two villages of rural northwest pakistan using regression analysis the study depicts that education and household income are the most significant factors that determine a household willingness to adopt improved biomass stoves the study concludes that the rate of adoption could substantially be improved if the government and non governmental organizations ngos play a greater role in overcoming the social economic cultural political and institutional barriers to adopting improved cooking technologies

marginal cost pricing when spot markets are complete the standard formulation of a spot market subject to uncertain excess demand uses a tatonnement process that restricts trade until the market clearing price is found here i present a model in which there is no restriction on trade during the process of the resolution of uncertainty about aggregate excess demand the idea is to enlarge the commodity space and define goods by the probability that they will sell in addition to other characteristics the probability of sale characteristic is the spot market analogue of the contingencies under which delivery will take place in the arrow debreu model a failure to distinguish goods by the probability of sale characteristic can lead to the rejection of the competitive paradigm even when everyone is a price taker and the allocation is efficient

equilibrium price dispersion under demand uncertainty the roles of costly capacity and market structure when capacity is costly and prices are set in advance firms facing uncertain demand will sell output at multiple prices and limit the quantity available at each price i show that the optimal price strategy of a monopolist and the unique pure strategy nash equilibria of oligopolists both exhibit intrafirm price dispersion moreover as the market becomes more competitive prices become more dispersed a pattern documented in the airline industry while generating similar predictions the model differs from the revenue management literature because it disregards market segmentation and fare restrictions that screen customers

clean fuel saving technology adoption in urban ethiopia abstract the heavy dependence and inefficient utilization of biomass resources have contributed to the depletion of forest resources in ethiopia while the use of traditional cooking technology has also been linked to indoor air pollution and poor health in response the government and other institutions have pushed for the adoption of new cooking technologies with limited success this research examines the reasons underpinning the lack of widespread adoption via duration analysis correlating the speed of adoption of mirte and lakech cook stoves two examples of new cooking technologies in urban ethiopia to socioeconomic factors according to the duration analysis adoption rates have steadily increased over time while economic factors such as product price household income and household wealth are for the most part important determinants of adoption behavior there is also evidence that the availability of substitute technologies tends to hinder adoption and that there are large regional differences in adoption rates suggesting the need for a more detailed regional analysis of adoption decisions

monopoly price dispersion under demand uncertainty when a monopolist sets its price before its demand is known then it may set more than one price and limit the availability of its output at lower prices this article adds demand uncertainty and price rigidities to the standard model of monopoly pricing when there are two states of demand and the ex post monopoly price is greater when demand is high then the monopolist s optimal ex ante pricing strategy is to set two prices and limit purchases at the lower price

inflation and relative price variability abstract the unconditional variance of the rate of nominal price change can always be expressed as a function of the unconditional mean therefore the relationship between the unconditional variance and the unconditional mean cannot be used to distinguish among alternative theories

inefficient trade patterns excessive trade cross hauling and dumping abstract i study an example of a competitive environment in which trade occurs in a sequential manner in this example a country with a stable demand may suffer from trade with a country with unstable demand there may be too much trade a country may import and export the same good in the same period cross hauling and dumping may occur the timing of delivery is important when delivery occurs before trade delivery to stocks trade improves welfare there is dumping but no cross hauling when delivery occurs after trade delivery to order trade may reduce welfare and cross hauling may occur

price dispersion and demand uncertainty evidence from u s scanner data i use the prescott 1975 hotels model to explain variations in price dispersion across items sold by supermarkets in chicago the effect of demand uncertainty on price dispersion is highly significant and quantitatively important my estimates suggest that more than 40 of the cross sectional standard deviation of log prices is due to demand uncertainty i also find that price dispersion measures are negatively correlated with the average price but are not negatively correlated with the revenues from selling the good across stores and weeks and with the number of stores that sell the good temporary sales are modeled as a reaction to unwanted inventories that are accumulated when the realization of demand is low the effect of demand uncertainty on the frequency of temporary sales is also highly significant and quantitatively important items with more demand uncertainty tend to accumulate unwanted inventories more often and tend to have temporary sales more often

revenue management without commitment dynamic pricing and periodic flash sales a seller has a fixed number of goods to sell by a deadline at each time he posts a regular price and decides whether to hold a flash sale over time buyers privately enter the market and strategically time their purchases if a buyer does not purchase when she arrives she can pay an attention cost to recheck the regular price afterwards or she can wait for future flash sales where she may obtain a good at a discounted price in the unique markov perfect equilibrium the seller sporadically holds flash sales to lower the stock of goods a flash sale increases the willingness to pay of future buyers but decreases the willingness to pay of buyers who arrive early in the game when it is very likely that a buyer will obtain a good in a flash sale the seller holds a big initial flash sale for all but one unit of the good

financial analysts forecasts of earnings a better surrogate for market expectations abstract the specification of the market expectation of accounting numbers is a common feature of many empirical studies in accounting and finance givoly and lakonishok 1979 found that financial analysts forecasts have information content this study evaluates the quality of analysts forecasts as surrogates for the market expectation of earnings and compares it with that of prediction models commonly used in research results indicate that prediction errors of analysts are more closely associated with security price movements suggesting that analysts forecasts provide a better surrogate for market expectations than forecasts generated by time series models the study also identifies factors that might contribute to the performance of the financial analysts forecasts the broadness of the information set employed by analysts and to a lesser extent their reliance on information released after the end of the fiscal year appear to be important contributors to their performance

why are prices sticky the dynamics of wholesale gasoline prices the menu cost interpretation of sticky prices implies that the probability of a price change should depend on the past history of prices and fundamentals only through the gap between the current price and the frictionless price we find that this prediction is broadly consistent with the behavior of nine philadelphia gasoline wholesalers nevertheless we reject the menu cost model as a literal description of these firms behavior arguing instead that price stickiness arises from strategic considerations of how customers and competitors will react to price changes

forecasting profitability and earnings a study of the uk market 1982 2000 an approach recently developed by fama and french 2000 is applied to the study of whether uk company profitability is mean reverting a sample of roughly 987 firms per year for a period from 1982 2000 is used drawn from datastream in a simple partial adjustment model convergence towards the mean at a rate of about 25 per year is found the results are very similar in direction to those of fama and french 2000 but the results do not display significant non linearities the change in profitability appears to be more strongly influenced by dividends in the uk

money and inventories in an economy with uncertain and sequential trade abstract we propose a model in which an unanticipated reduction in the money supply leads to a contemporaneous increase in inventories followed by periods with lower output this persistent real effect does not require price rigidities or real shocks and confusion it is obtained in a model of uncertain and sequential trade in which markets are cleared and agents are price takers

do analysts sacrifice forecast accuracy for informativeness analysts deviate from management guidance to correct for perceived earnings management although the deviations reduce forecast accuracy they improve forecast informativeness bringing the forecasts closer to the unmanaged earnings and reducing accruals mispricing an implicit assumption in the literature is that more accurate analyst forecasts i e estimates that are closer to the reported earnings are better for investors and that analysts objective is to forecast the reported managed earnings accurately our analysis suggests that this is not necessarily the case and that an inaccurate forecast can actually be more informative than an accurate one prior studies on analysts deviations from management guidance focus on analysts incentives to issue estimates that managers can beat these studies implicitly assume that analysts side with management against the interests of their clients our analysis indicates that analysts could also deviate from management guidance to provide useful valuation