do firms differ much with finn profitability data for a cross section of geographic markets it is possible to determine the relative importance of firm and market effects on profitability analysis of variance from a panel of multihank holditig companies in texas suggests that finn effects are more important than market effects in determining profitability and that the magnitudes of the effects vary over time in a 1985 article schmalensee takes a new approach to analysis of the structure conduct performance paradigm schmalensee chooses a purely descriptive approach to distinguish among the classical tradition of bain 1956 which takes markets as the basic unit of analysis with a particular focus on market concentration the revisionist views of demsetz 1973 and peltzman 1977 who view the observed relation between profitability and concentration as reflecting underlying inter firm profitability differences and the managerial view that profitability is determined by firm wide management practices but not necessarily by differences in market share this descriptive approach has two advantages over a structural analysis a descriptive analysis avoids imposition of the troublesome maintained hypotheses inherent in structural models further as scott and pascoe 1986 point out the explanatory power of structural models is generally only a small fraction of that of descriptive models

the transactions cost approach to vertical integration an empirical examination the transactions cost approach developed by coase and williamson provides a coherent framework for investigating the determinants of vertical integration in different industries empirical implications are developed and then tested using a cross section of firm level data pooled over different time periods the results tend to confirm hypotheses regarding the internal costs of management small numbers bargaining problems and the notion of the firm as suited to adaptive sequential decision making under conditions of uncertainty it rhile there exists an extensive literature on vy theoretical rationales for vertical integration surprisingly little is known about the importance of the different theories the empirical literature includes two types of studies case studies test the applicability of a particular theory to a single firm or industry e g armour and teece 1980 perry 1980 or monteverde and teece 1982a they are susceptible to bias in their choice of industry and the generality of their results cannot be established another category of studies examines a broad base of industries to determine the relationship between vertical integration and such variables as industry concentration average firm size and sales growth e g adelman 1955 gort 1962 and tucker and wilder 1977 the link between these studies and theories of vertical integration is generally left unclear 2 this study will adopt the strategy of investigating a broad base of industries but unlike earlier studies of this type will test empirical implications following from the transactions cost approach 3 this approach as developed by coase 1937 and williamson 1975 1979 provides a coherent framework for investigating determinants of vertical integration over different industries furthermore williamson has persuasively argued that transactions cost considerations underlie such prominent reasons for vertical integration as the elimination of monopoly distortions technical complementarities supply reliability and economies in the acquisition of information the transactions cost approach is summarized and implications are developed in the first section of this paper the implications are tested using firm level data pooled over time the empirical model is presented in the second section and the results are presented in the third section the model incorporates variables not included in previous studies of vertical integration such as measures of market risk and organizational structure the results tend to confirm hypotheses regarding internal costs of management small numbers bargaining problems and the notion of the firm as an institution suited to adaptive sequential decision making a summary of the results and conclusions are contained in the final section i the transactions cost approach arrow 1969 has defined transactions costs as the cost of organizing the economic system in attempting to translate this idea into a framework for explaining the organization of economic activity williamson and others have focused on the role of opportunism and the limited capability of individuals in processing information the choice of institutional alternative depends on minimizing the costs which arise in the presence of transaction specific investments and uncertainty while a wide variety of institutional alternatives exist a simple dichotomy is adopted here for the sake of tractability following coase transactions are classified according to whether they take place in the firm or across markets market alternatives become hazardous in recurring exchanges involving transaction specific capital and efficient information processing the firm then provides a received for publication november 21 1983 revision accepted for publication december 3 1984 rutgers university this paper is based on my dissertation i would like to thank my committee armen alchian harold demsetz david mayers fred weston and my chairman benjamin klein for their helpful comments recent versions of the paper also benefited from comments made by k chung d carlton d kaserman and anonymous referees i would also like to thank participants of the transactions cost workshop at the university of pennsylvania the usual disclaimer applies 1 recent summaries of the theoretical literature on vertical integration are in warren boulton 1978 and kaserman 1978 see levy 1981 1984 for discussion of this problem 3earlier studies by armour and teece 1980 and monteverde and teece 1982 a b have successfully employed the transactions cost approach to examine vertical integration in particular industries this study differs in that it adopts the transactions cost approach to test implications across industries

electricity fuel contracting relationships with coal and gas suppliers the growth of competition in the electricity generation industry along with changes in natural gas and coal regulation have led to renewed interest in the nature of efficient transactional arrangements for procuring coal and gas this study examines the evolution of major influences on the incentives for choosing among different transactional forms we find that the asset specificity hypothesis continues to be an important explanation for transactional arrangements in fuel acquisition the degree of asset specificity in a fuel supply arrangement is a function of technological factors of inherent market characteristics and of regulatory rules the expanding role of more flexible fuel supply arrangements in gas and to a lesser extent coal markets is a natural response to current regulatory and technological trends

an empirical study on taiwan s current account 1961 90 in this paper a simple intertemporal current account model is developed for a small open economy with imperfect capital markets the model nests both perfect and imperfect international capital mobilities as its special cases the model is empirically examined using taiwan s annual data for the period between 1961 and 1990 our results show that the model is able to explain some historical movements of taiwan s trade balance however in contrast to many findings from previous studies for other countries the model is rejected one important feature of the rejection of the model is that the actual trade balance series is much more volatile than can be explained by the model this is especially so for the periods when world oil shocks occurred these results indicates that changes in the terms of trade which our simple model neglects might be important factors in taiwan s current determination

liberalisation and r d in network industries the case of the electricity industry abstract electricity sector liberalisation has coincided with a significant decline in r d spending this paper reviews the industrial organisation literature on r d and innovation to explore the likely causes of the decline in r d spending in the electricity sector meanwhile r d productivity and innovative outputs in utilities and equipment suppliers appear to have improved however a lasting decline in r d expenditure can have a negative long term effect on technological progress and innovation in the sector we conclude that the decline in r d could have been predicted from the literature we also discuss the need to reorient the post liberalisation technology policy

administrative control buyer concentration and price cost margins steven h lustgarten 1975 and others have presented evidence that concentrated buyers lower the price cost margins of sellers but theory predicts that buyer concentration is positively correlated with administrative control of transactions this paper shows that administrative control is responsible for the observed effect of buyer concentration when a proxy for administrative control is included in lustgarten s model buyer concentration becomes insignificant copyright 1989 by mit press

public prioritisation of energy affordability in the uk much research has focused on the so called energy trilemma i e three leading energy policy issues energy security affordability and climate change mitigation whilst substantial understanding exists of why people support climate friendly energy policies little is known about why they think affordability is important particularly what leads members of the public to identify this policy goal as more important than other objectives here we examine this question via a nationally representative survey of 2441 uk residents and demonstrate that concerns about personal costs explain a small amount of variation in the prioritisation of affordability as an energy policy goal a range of other factors also significantly contribute one such factor is beliefs about who is responsible for energy transitions these findings suggest policy actions to address affordability concerns should go beyond energy prices and include additional considerations such as distributive justice and equality

regional competitive advantage based on pioneering economic reforms the case of chilean fdi foreign affiliates of chilean companies operating in latin america were more profitable than similar local firms but this difference in profitability has been decreasing over time two case studies of chilean multinationals illustrate our hypothesis that one source of competitive advantage for chilean firms was their know how of business strategy during economic liberalization using empirical and theoretical considerations we analyze whether this hypothesis is valid for other firms and industries

comparing consumption based asset pricing models we make use of a recently developed method to estimate the intertemporal mar ginal rate of substitution consistent with the fluctuations of asset return data from the toronto stock exchange these estimates are then used to evaluate various parametric specifications for preferences often used in empirical studies of consumption and asset returns in contrast to existing studies we are able to perform a formal statistical comparison of these models we consider six extensions of the usual power utility model and we find that none can be said to be a demonstrable improvement on the standard model

sources of superior performance market share versus industry effects in the u s brewing industry using financial measures of performance we investigate the sources of value creation in the u s brewing industry between 1969 and 1979 we find that market share gains in this industry at this time are not correlated with changes in value and that the performance of individual leading firms is highly correlated our interpretation is that the success of market share building strategies depends critically on specific industry conditions specifically in the absence of fundamental shifts in the relative resource positions of individual firms share gains may come at too high a price in addition the research shows that intra industry correlations in returns may result from excessive competition rather than collusion

information technology effects on firm performance as measured by tobin s q despite increasing anecdotal evidence that information technology it assets contribute to firm performance and future growth potential of firms the empirical results relating it investments to firm performance measures have been equivocal however the bulk of the studies have relied exclusively on accounting based measures of firm performance which largely tend to ignore it s contribution to performance dimensions such as strategic flexibility and intangible value in this paper we use tobin s q a financial market based measure of firm performance and examine the association between it investments and firm q values after controlling for a variety of industry factors and firm specific variables the results based on data from 1988 1993 indicate that in all of the five years the inclusion of the it expenditure variable in the model increased the variance explained in q significantly the results also showed that for all five years it investments had a significantly positive association with tobin s q value our results are consistent with the notion that it contributes to a firm s future performance potential which a forward looking measure such as the q is better able to capture

u s fiscal policy and trade deficits a broad perspective the emergence of large government budget deficits and large international trade deficits stands out as the dominant feature of u s macroeconomic behavior since the early 1980s economists trained in the traditional keynesian theory have pointed to the budget deficit as the major cause of the trade deficit according to the mundell fleming model changes in the budget deficit trigger changes in the real interest rate the real exchange rate and the level of real income which in turn alter the trade balance others believing in the real world relevance of the ricardian equivalence proposition have argued that the deficits are not really twins but merely distant cousins if not entirely unrelated if ricardian equivalence holds shifts between taxes and borrowing have no effect on real interest rates or aggregate demand previous studies of the twin deficits have adopted a variety of approaches both theoretical and empirical theoretical treatments run the gamut from the standard mundell fleming model 18 to the ricardian model 7 to the atheoretical 1 2 3 4 12 14 17 empirical approaches range from simple single equation ols 5 6 16 to two stage least squares applied to a system of structural equations 18 to unconstrained var modeling 1 2 12 17 to cointegration 3 14 the variables used to measure the budget and trade deficits vary across studies as does the set of related variables included in the models the form in which the data are utilized e g as a ratio of gnp or as a first difference of levels also differs across studies not surprisingly a variety of results emerges table i provides a brief overview of a number of studies the estimated effects of budget deficits on the trade balance range from the substantial 12 to statistically insignificant 7 abell 1 2 finds the transmission mechanism to be primarily through interest and exchange rates while zietz and pemberton 18 find that channel to be insignificant in comparison to the domestic absorption channel yet some studies do not even include domestic income as a separate variable in their equations making cross study comparisons difficult thus it is impossible to draw with confidence any conclusions about the twin deficits relationship this confusion of results leads us to examine systematically the relationship between the two deficits using a multivariate model in this paper we report the results of a systematic analysis of the link between the deficits using a five variable system for the flexible exchange rate period 1973 1 to 1991 iv we begin with

determining factors of curtailment and purchasing energy related behaviours changing people s behaviour in relation to energy consumption will be one of the most important challenges in the near future we analyzed the determinants behind individuals decisions to adopt curtailment behaviour or to purchase energy saving products using data from 213 university students we explored the influence of personal capabilities and moral norms along with trust in information on energy saving actions provided by different entities on two energy saving behaviours the results of the statistical model emphasise how personal norms and trust in information provided by private companies on the one hand and family and friends on the other strongly influence the adoption of energy saving actions and curtailment behaviours the paper reveals the pivotal role of private companies in developing the market demand for energy saving products by providing credible and scientifically based information on environmental performance the paper also contributes to strengthening the reliability of value belief norm theory and emphasizes the role of trust in information as a contextual factor that influences the adoption of a pro environmental behaviour

vertical integration in the u s pulp and paper industry 1900 1940 a transaction cost model of vertical integration is tested based on detailed descriptions of every pulp and paper mill operating in the united states between 1900 and 1940 this study contributes to the literature on integration through the use of a large disaggregated database that allows identification of individual mills over time vertical integration of pulp and paper production is found to be positively associated with regional concentration paper mill capacity and production of standardized grades of paper over time new entrants behaved differently than established mills because few mills switched between integration and specialization once established copyright 1994 by mit press

the economic consequences of accounting choice implications of costly contracting and monitoring abstract in this paper we review research into the economic consequences of voluntary and mandatory choices of accounting techniques and standards we discuss how the predictions of extant economic consequence theories are driven by contracting and monitoring costs associated with management compensation contracts bond covenants regulation and or political visibility we review empirical tests of economic consequence theories categorize those tests and discuss their strengths and weaknesses the empirical tests reveal two systematic associations with accounting choice size a proxy for political visibility and leverage a proxy for contracting and monitoring costs of lending agreements interpretation of the results is difficult due to general limitations of the tests we conclude by suggesting some directions for future research based on our analysis of the potential payoffs associated with different types of empirical tests

the twin deficits phenomenon evidence from greece this paper explores the relationship between budget and trade deficits in a small open economy using annual data the purpose of the paper is to test empirically the validity and rationale of the keynesian proposition conventional view and the ricardian equivalence hypothesis the econometric methodology is based on cointegration analysis error correction modelling and granger trivariate causality the ecm empirical findings suggest that budget deficit has short and long run positive and significant causal effects on trade deficit

the effects of firm size and industry on corporate giving recent downward trends in corporate giving have renewed interest in the factors that shape corporate philanthropy this paper examines the relationships between charitable contributions firm size and industry improvements over previous studies include an irs data base that covers a much broader range of firm sizes and industries as compared to previous studies and estimation using an instrumental variable technique that explicitly addresses potential simultaneity between charitable contributions and profitability important findings provide evidence of a cubic relationship between charitable giving and firm size and evidence of strong industry effects the plus minus plus regression coefficient sign pattern for the cubic firm size model suggests that small and large firms give more relative to total receipts with lower giving ratios among medium size firms one interpretation for this finding is that small firms are close to the communities they serve while high visibility creates a need for large firm philanthropy strong industry effects provide evidence of inter industry differences in giving culture and or different public relations requirements across industries

unobservable effects and business performance while unobservable factors such as corporate culture access to scarce resources management skill and luck can be postulated to be principal determinants of business success their effects are all but ignored in studies of business performance this study making use of the pims data base reports empirical evidence indicating that failure to control for unobservable factors influencing profitability both biases and exaggerates the effect of strategic factors indeed the influence of unobservable factors is so pervasive as to invalidate many of the conclusions drawn from studies failing to control for their effects

uncertainty irreversibility and the likelihood of entry an empirical assessment of the option to defer abstract recent work in the real options approach to investment has argued that firms face significant opportunity costs when entry costs are largely irreversible and these costs equal the value of an option to defer investment this study seeks to examine empirically these claims by investigating the interactive effects of uncertainty and irreversibility on the likelihood of entry into new business by diversified firms we investigate both industry and firm specific factors influencing the degree of investment irreversibility in general we find support for the notion that real option value affects the likelihood of entry

twin sons of different mothers the long and the short of the twin deficits debate i introduction the relationship between the government budget deficit and the current account deficit has been a contentious subject in empirical macroeconomics for at least the past 20 yr papers have variously found a positive link no link and three recent pieces even find a negative link between the two there are however some things that almost all these studies have in common for example they ignore the possibility of structural breaks in the series when examining their time series properties most previous studies treat the variables under study as being integrated of order 1 which is to say as having a unit root this is a hard assumption to square with the fact that the variables are measured as fractions of gross domestic product gdp and have over the last half century at least shown no inclination toward typical unit root behavior by contrast in three recent pieces corsetti and muller 2006 kim and roubini 2008 muller 2006 the two series are simply treated as pure stationary processes without any pretesting which obviously conflicts with results from the traditional unit root tests in this article we show that both the budget deficit and the current account deficit are stationary around an occasionally shifting mean which is to say that they have structural breaks but are stationary after allowing for those breaks since it is well known that traditional unit root tests have little power when the underlying data contain structural breaks this explains the puzzling finding that the budget deficit and the current account deficit expressed as fractions of gdp test out as i 1 series in practice our findings also cast doubt on the validity of assuming the two series are purely stationary processes given our framework a simple test for the existence of a long run equilibrium relationship between budget and current account deficits is to compare the number and timing of their structural shifts we find that the two series are not closely related either in their number of breaks or in their timing of structural shifts we thus conclude that over the long run genetically the deficits are not twins another factor that existing studies have in common is their treatment of the error structure of the model as homoskedastic despite relatively clear visual evidence of volatility clustering conditional heteroskedasticity in least squares residuals when we consider the short run dynamics of the demeaned variables through a vector autoregression var analysis we show that the error covariance of this var model is significantly conditionally heteroskedastic and go on to specifically account for this phenomenon with a var generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity garch model we consider a trivariate model that also includes the real interest rate here we find a significant and sizeable positive short run effect of budget deficit innovations on the current account deficit in both the impulse response functions and the variance decompositions of the model our answer to the question of the paternity of the two deficits thus depends on the horizon studied each series has structural breaks that are largely independent of each other so they are not twins at all over the long run however once we allow for these secular shifts the short run dynamics reveal a very strong family resemblance indeed the rest of the article is organized as follows in section ii we review some of the existing empirical literature section iii discusses the time series properties of the data and presents our results about the long run evidence on the twin deficits question section iv sets out our var garch model and presents our results on short run twin deficits behavior section v is a brief conclusion ii an overview of the empirical literature the relationship between current account deficits and government budget deficits has been a subject of extensive study

the economics of large scale infrastructure fdi the case of project finance in this paper a theoretical framework is developed to explain why multinational enterprises invest in infrastructure through the mode of project finance pf instead of using corporate finance infrastructure assets are susceptible to creeping expropriation from host governments and to hold up from concentrated suppliers buyers corporate finance based foreign direct investment fdi cannot fully mitigate these threats however pf based fdi through strategic use of capital structure chiefly high leverage and syndicate structure of debt improves the bargaining position of firms in ex post recontracting negotiations high leverage precommits cash flows serves as a monitoring and early warning mechanism that reveals creeping expropriation induces lenders to join renegotiations and reduces reported net profits the syndicate structure of debt creates a reputation effect for host countries high debt shields wealth from concentrated suppliers buyers while separate incorporation in pf allows suppliers buyers to hold equity stakes this theoretical framework is tested by assembling a database of 200 investments worth 159 97 billion by 167 firms in 128 countries over 17 years sample selection bias is controlled for through heckman probit specification the hypothesis that pf based fdi helps mitigate hold up from concentrated suppliers buyers finds strong support while the hypothesis that pf mitigates country risk finds limited support

the union impact on profits evidence from industry price cost margin data this paper uses industry price cost margin data to estimate the extent to which unions reduce profits estimates allowing for the endogeneity of union status are contrasted with estimates that assume union status is exogenous and not determined in part by either profitability or industry structure endogeneity is found to be an important consideration in estimating the union impact on profits two stage estimates are considerably larger than ols estimates the final section explores the total estimated redistribution from capital to labor in the manufacturing sector an important conclusion is that unions raise prices less than was previously believed

transitory and permanent disturbances and the current account an empirical analysis in the intertemporal framework the intertemporal models of current account determination demonstrate that in the analysis of the current account balance of a country it is important to distinguish between transitory and permanent disturbances in income and relative prices this paper attempts to decompose the observed data on income and real exchange rate into transitory and permanent components and then uses the decomposed series to test the empirical validity of the predictions of the intertemporal models evidence from the united states and japan provide very limited support for the intertemporal models in terms of the effects of transitory and permanent changes in income on current account balance for both us and japan the study finds that permanent changes in real exchange rate have significant effects on the current account balance statistical tests find no evidence of hysteresis in the trading relations of the two countries

a participatory approach to sustainable energy strategy development in a carbon intensive jurisdiction the case of nova scotia the need for governments to reduce the exposure of energy consumers to future increases in fossil fuel prices places urgent pressure on policy makers to deliver fundamental transformations in energy strategies particularly in jurisdictions with high dependency on fossil fuel sources dorian et al 2006 this transformation is unlikely without a high level of stakeholder engagement in the policy development process this paper describes two policy development processes recently undertaken in nova scotia in which the inclusion of stakeholder views was central to the approach the first delivered a new institutional framework for electricity energy efficiency involving the inception of an independent performance based administrator the second required the delivery of a strategy to significantly increase renewable energy generation in the province it involved recommendations for changes in institutional arrangements financial incentives and technological options this process was followed by new commitments to renewable energy developments new infrastructure for the importation of hydro electricity and the announcement of fits for ocean energy in both cases recommendations were made by an independent academic institution and the government responded directly to a majority of recommendations the paper concludes with a discussion of lessons learned and the implications for future energy policy making in carbon intensive jurisdictions

accounting for us current account deficits an empirical investigation the sources of us current account deficits are investigated using a number of macroeconomic variables and a vector error correction model the variables are those typically emphasized by the traditional income expenditure approach and the intertemporal ricardian approach the results indicate that macroeconomic variables explain the current account reasonably well and the evidence seems to support the traditional approach where budget deficits and increases in real interest rates and terms of trade are associated with current account deficits

technology development mode a transaction cost conceptualization technology alliances have emerged in the past decade as a significant mode for the development of innovation the present research assesses the factors explaining whether firms will engage in such technology alliances or utilize the more traditional mode of internal r d the hypotheses stem from a transaction cost conceptualization results suggest that firms which pursue technology alliances are likely to have less commitment to product category specific assets to face higher technological uncertainty to be more capable at measuring innovation performance to have more successful technology alliance experiences and to compete in lower growth product categories 1998 john wiley sons ltd

tobin s q and the importance of focus in firm performance using tobin s q as a measure of performance we seek to estimate the relative importance of industry focus and share effects in determining firm performance our methods are analogous to those of richard schmalensee and like him we find that industry effects account for the majority of the explained variance however we also find that firm effects exist in the form of focus effects that is narrowly diversified firms do better than widely diversified firms we interpret this finding as consistent with profit maximization by firms with different factor endowments

predictors of success in new technology based ventures abstract several recent studies have examined the causes of success and failure in new ventures from these a three level analysis has evolved which considers the management the venture s strategy and its competitive environment empirical testing is still at an early stage but results have generally supported the three level approach however the findings are not very strong this study considers only high potential technology based new ventures the companies on which venture capitalists concentrate it suggests that such firms face unusual time pressures and uncertainty and that their responses to these forces are major determinants of success or failure we propose 11 easily measured qualities describing management the firm s strategy and its environment which should influence how quickly the venture can act these should predict a new venture s performance the 11 attributes are tested on 36 new ventures representing essentially all of the startup investments of a major venture capital firm between 1974 and 1982 the data are taken from the firms original business plans performance is measured from the subsequent financial history using the compound rate of return to all shareholders founders employees and investors the ventures in this sample are primarily based on electronic or information technologies they are highly successful as a group with an average compound rate of return of 98 per year they are also very risky the standard deviation of returns is 171 per year and in 11 of 36 cases the shareholders lost on their investments results from a single sample must always be treated cautiously however several findings are strong enough to merit further study and to be incorporated as a part of a process for evaluating new ventures 1 1 a set of four measures representing all three areas explains 57 of the variance the four completeness of the founding team technical superiority of the product expected time for product development and buyer concentration all behave as expected the first two have a positive effect the latter two have an inverted u shaped relationship with an optimum development time of 12 months and an optimum number of customers of approximately 60 three other measures prior shared experience of the founders competitive conditions and projected market share show an influence when management strategy and environment are examined one area at a time 2 2 these relatively simple measures predict success well probably at least as well as any other study has done using more subtle measures 3 3 the measures used in this study though they have strong predictive power apparently did not influence the young capitalists otherwise the relationships should have been different when the return to venture capital investors was used in place of the total return in fact they were the same this suggests that the venture capital investors did not give sufficient weight to the qualities that we consider and could make better choices by giving greater attention to those measures 4 4 prospective entrepreneurs and investors should benefit from using our model aspart of their screening processes specifically they might calculate a predicted rate of return if it is low say below 30 per year they should examine the reason for the low score and consider whether circumstances exist which outweigh or invalidate that apparent weakness 5 5 an additive model seems realistic that is one can combine dissimilar qualities with appropriate weighting for relative importance to arrive at an overall figure of merit with strong predictive power the specific parameters imply that a company must have a complete management team and score well on two of the remaining three measures in order to be an attractive opportunity more generally the model allows a practitioner to make a rough assessment of the tradeoffs among management product and industry this is important because few if any new companies have all the qualities an investor may desire 6 6 although individual qualities of the founders are no doubt important this remains a difficult matter to demonstrate statistically 7 7 firms exist in an ever changing competitive environment to the extent that these findings are valid beyond this sample they may have been recognized and incorporated in more recent new ventures if so this may change the nature of competition and alter the key determinants of success or failure

the impact of competition on make or buy decisions evidence from the spanish local tv industry this paper empirically investigates whether changes in product market competition affect firm boundaries exploiting regulation induced shocks to entry barriers and differences in regulation enforcement across cities to obtain exogenous variation in competition we establish a negative causal effect of competition through reduced entry barriers and a larger number of rival firms on vertical integration in the setting of the spanish local television industry between 1995 and 2002 data and the online appendix are available at https doi org 10 1287 mnsc 2016 2633 this paper was accepted by bruno cassiman business strategy

interest rates and expected future budget deficits in the united states several recent empirical studies have found no evidence of a positive association between interest rates and current and past budget deficits one possible explanation for this finding is that interest rates are related much more to the expectation of future budget deficits than to current and past budget deficits in this paper i investigate whether this explanation is valid finding no evidence that it is section ii briefly formulates and discusses the hypothesis under consideration stating some of its implications section iii presents the results of regressing the commercial paper rate moody s aaa bond rate and the ex post real commercial paper rate on current and past government spending budget deficits and real money supplies the regressions have been fitted to the entire sample of monthly data spanning the period between june 1908 and march 1984 and to 11

sics as delineators of economic markets the standard industrial classification sic is often used to divide firms into homogeneous markets firms classified into the same n 1 digit sic are thought to be more homogeneous than firms sharing only the same n digit sic this study measures how well the sic succeeds at combining firms into homogeneous economic markets assuming that firms in more similar economic markets should display more similar sales changes profit rates or stock price changes than firms in less similar economic markets the author finds that the sic is not successful at identifying firms with such similar characteristic variables copyright 1989 by the university of chicago

estimating the performance effects of business groups in emerging markets business groups confederations of legally independent firms are ubiquitous in emerging economies yet very little is known about their effects on the performance of affiliated firms we conceive of business groups as responses to market failures and high transaction costs in doing so we develop hypotheses about the effects of group affiliation on firm profitability affiliation could either boost or depress firm profitability and members of a group are likely to earn rates of return similar to other members of the same group using a unique data set compiled largely from local sources we test for these effects in 14 emerging markets argentina brazil chile india indonesia israel mexico peru the philippines south africa south korea taiwan thailand and turkey we find evidence that business groups indeed affect the broad patterns of economic performance in 12 of the markets we examine group affiliation appears to have as profound an effect on profitability as does industry membership yet strategy scholars have a much clearer grasp of industries than of groups moreover membership in a group raises the profitability of the average group member in several of the markets we examine this runs contrary to the wisdom conventional in advanced economies that unrelated diversification depresses profitability overall our findings suggest that the roots of sustained differences in profitability may vary across institutional contexts conclusions drawn in one context may well not apply to another copyright 2001 john wiley sons ltd

oligopsony power asset specificity and hold up evidence from the broiler industry in this article we look for empirical evidence of hold up in broiler industry production contracts by using the cross sectional national survey of broiler growers first we focus on the problem of under investment and hypothesize that the degree of agent s grower s under investment systematically depends on the principal s integrator s market power and the level of asset specificity second we provide an indirect test of hold up by looking at the grower contract payoffs as a function of the frequency of the housing facilities upgrade requests and the principal s market power the results show moderate empirical support for the presence of hold up

knowledge market failure and the multinational enterprise a comment the purpose of this note is to comment briefly on two papers published in this journal kogut and zander 1993 and love 1995 kogut and zander k z argue that market failure is not necessary to explain the existence of multinationals or indeed any firm love argues that the existence of a firm necessarily reflects a market failure but that opportunism is not necessary for market failure to occur i have problems with the logic of both papers

current account and budget deficits twins or distant cousins the paper develops a two country micro theoretic model consistent with the ricardian equivalence hypothesis reh specifically tax increases used to retire government debt will not affect private spending or the current account balance however increases in government spending regard less of the means of finance can be expected to induce a current account deficit an unconstrained vector autoregres sion shows some patterns in the recent u s data which appear to be inconsistent with the reh rigorous testing of the model however does not allow us to reject the indepen dence of the record federal government budget and current account deficits

government financing decisions and asset returns abstract this paper presents an empirical investigation of the relation between government financing decisions and asset returns in particular the focus is on whether a substitution of debt financing for tax financing of a given level of expenditures is associated with an increase in interest rates the paper brings a different perspective to empirical investigations of government fiscal policies by examining the response of asset prices in an efficient capital market to such policies rather than focusing on aggregate consumption behavior the results are consistent with the idea that asset prices are unrelated to how the government finances its expenditures the results however also indicate that the capital market is not indifferent with respect to the level of government expenditures as higher interest rates are associated with increases in government purchases

on the contribution of external cost calculations to energy system governance the case of a potential large scale nuclear accident abstract the contribution of nuclear power to a sustainable energy future is a contested issue this paper presents a critical review of an attempt to objectify this debate through the calculation of the external costs of a potential large scale nuclear accident in the externe project a careful dissection of the externe approach resulted in a list of 30 calculation steps and assumptions from which the 6 most contentious ones were selected through a stakeholder internet survey the policy robustness and relevance of these key assumptions were then assessed in a workshop using the concept of a pedigree of knowledge overall the workshop outcomes revealed the stakeholder and expert panel s scepticism about the assumptions made generally these were considered not very plausible subjected to disagreement and to a large extent inspired by contextual factors such criticism indicates a limited validity and useability of the calculated nuclear accident externality as a trustworthy sustainability indicator furthermore it is our contention that the externe project could benefit greatly in terms of gaining public trust from employing highly visible procedures of extended peer review such as the pedigree assessment applied to our specific case of the external costs of a potential large scale nuclear accident

can small firms find and defend strategic niches a test of the porter hypothesis a number of studies have found a positive relation between market share and profitability michael porter argues that this need not hold when small firms find strategic niches protected by mobility barriers this paper examines that hypothesis by comparing the profitability of large and small lines of business when the activities of the two groups proxied by the allocation of sales across submarkets differ on average the authors find that in heterogeneous product mix industries profits of large lines of business are no longer significantly greater than profits of smaller rivals except that market leaders maintain their advantage regardless of product mix copyright 1989 by mit press

structure and performance with profit measures based on stock market prices the theory that there is a causal relationship between industry structure conduct and performance is the fundamental premise in the field of industrial organization the most carefully researched component of that general theory is the hypothesis that increasing industrial concentration will give rise to increasing profits this traditional view is important not only because of its prominence in the academic analysis of industrial markets but also because of its implications for government policy especially antitrust policy the traditional view typically has been tested by treating an accounting based measure of industry profit as the dependent variable with concentration and other structural variables as independent variables within a cross section of manufacturing industries at a given point in time numerous papers have found that concentration has a positive impact on profits the methodology adopted in this paper is different the profit measures are based on stock market prices and are adjusted for risk this is an improvement because accounting methods are so poorly adapted to the measurement of economic profit and because risk may vary with concentration 2 39 another methodological innovation is the choice of time series over cross section analysis the question asked is whether the change over time in each industry s level of concentration had an impact on profits this minimizes the problem of omitted or inaccurately measured independent variables since there should be less change in basic structural characteristics over short time periods within an industry than between industries at a single point in time 2 a second important advantage is freedom from a basic assumption of crosssection studies the assumption that the relationship between concentration and profit is homogeneous across industries if the assumption is invalid empirical results are subject to bias two tests 7 26 have firmly rejected the homogeneity assumption 3

trust and the transformation of energy systems the author looks at diverse concepts and roles of trust in the challenge of decarbonising energy systems drawing on 25 years of personal experience in the fields of energy and environmental policy research the paper focuses on three issues public trust in science institutional trust in making technology choices and the idea that high trust societies are more sustainable than those exhibiting low trust while trust is a key concept in understanding the public acceptability of technology choices it is only one of a suite of interrelated concepts that must be addressed which also includes liability consent and fairness furthermore rational distrust among competing institutional world views may be critical in understanding the role of social capital in socioeconomic and technological development thus the concept of trust has become a portmanteau carrying a diverse range of ideas and conditions for sustainable energy systems the paper concludes with three emphases for decision makers first the issue is the energy system not particular generating technologies second the energy system must be recognized to be as much a social system as it is a technical one third the system requires incorporation of the minimum level of diversity of engineering technologies and social actors to be sustainable

unions and the capture of economic rents an investigation using british firm level data this paper considers the relationship between unions and profitability in a sample of large british firms in 1984 and 1985 the initial finding is that unionised firms have significantly lower profit margins than otherwise comparable non union firms tests of whether the ability of unions to influence profit margins varies with the product and labour market characteristics of the firms in which they are located are then conducted the ability of unions to capture economic rents is seen to be significantly greater in firms which have a high market share and or operate in highly unionised industries

governance and uncertainty the trade off between administrative control and commitment this study elaborates upon the motives for initiating equity based collaborations vs acquisition of another firm already having a desired technology we characterize both minority direct investments and joint ventures as options to defer either internal development or acquisition of a target firm in domains where learning about growth opportunities dominates investment activity this incremental mode of governance economizes on the cost of committing resources to a technology with an uncertain value using a sample of 402 transactions in the biotechnology industry we find strong support for the theoretical model the findings suggest that the cost of commitment in the face of technological uncertainty may offset the administrative benefits of hierarchical governance 1998 john wiley sons ltd

the political economy of deficit spending in nine industrialized parliamentary democracies the role of fiscal institutions this article analyzes the influence of four sets of factors on deficit spending in 9 industrialized parliamentary democracies during 1958 1990 this article analyzes the influence of these factors and introduces and tests the importance of an additional potential influence on the size of a country s fiscal deficit the strength of fiscal bureaucracy it is argued that the stronger a country s fiscal bureaucracy the lower its deficit ceteris paribus empirically the authors find that the state of a nation s economy heavily affects its deficit little systematic relationship is found between the ideology of the ruling political party and a nation s deficit or between the political strength of the ruling party and deficits in contrast to the findings of roubini and sachs finally it is found that the strength of a country s fiscal bureaucracy is an important influence on the deficit in these 9 industrialized parliamentary democracies

business groups and social welfare in emerging markets existing evidence and unanswered questions abstract this paper reviews existing studies of the role of emerging market business groups a ubiquitous but poorly understood organizational form i first suggest that understanding the definition of business groups is itself an interesting albeit under studied research issue i then argue that the existing evidence suggests that the performance effects of group affiliation are large and generally positive there is substantial evidence that part of this is due to welfare enhancing functions originating in the idea that groups substitute for missing outside institutions but that part is also due to welfare reducing minority shareholder exploitation evidence is lacking on the extent to which groups facilitate rent seeking or the exercise of market power evidence is also lacking on the extent to which groups hamper the future development of markets the paper identifies areas where research is needed before current competition policy experiments in countries like china india and korea can be evaluated

governance and competence how can they be combined transaction cost economics faces serious problems concerning the way it deals or fails to deal with bounded rationality the efficiency of outcomes trust innovation learning and the nature of knowledge the competence view yields an alternative perspective on the purpose and boundaries of the firm however the competence view cannot ignore issues of governance and in spite of serious criticism transaction cost economics yields some useful concepts to deal with them this paper aims to contribute to the development of theory and empirical research that connects governance and competence perspectives copyright 2004 oxford university press

can the survivor principle survive diversification the survivor principle holds that the competitive process weeds out inefficient firms so that hypotheses about efficient behavior can be tested by observing what firms actually do this principle underlies a large body of empirical work in strategy economics and management but do competitive markets really select for efficient behavior is the survivor principle reliable we evaluate the survivor principle in the context of corporate diversification asking if survivor based measures of interindustry relatedness are good predictors of firms decisions to exit particular lines of business controlling for other firm and industry characteristics that affect firms portfolio choices we find strong robust evidence that survivor based relatedness is an important determinant of exit this empirical regularity is consistent with an efficiency rationale for firm level diversification though we cannot rule out alternative explanations based on firms desire for legitimacy by imitation and attempts to temper

the validity of profits structure studies with particular reference to the ftc s line of business data the simple proposition that consumerdamaging collusion is more likely to occur when there are fewer competitors has given rise not only to legal restrictions of economic activity thought to restrict output but also to an enormous amount of empirical work attempting to relate market concentration to the exercise of monopoly power most such studies measured market structure by an index of concentration for example four firm concentration or herfindahl and performance by accounting profit for example net profit divided by assets or price cost margins sales less direct costs divided by sales from the positive statistically significant correlations often found between greater concentration and profit with other factors presumably accounted for some researchers conclude that increases in concentration are anticompetitive and that concentration therefore is bad the concentration profits studies have been criticized essentially on two grounds one is that the positive relationship is not indicative of collusive behavior in particular oliver williamson 1968 john mcgee 1971 harold demsetz 1973 1974 and sam peltzman 1977 point out that higher profits could result from efficiencies experienced by large firms which resulted both in greater market shares and high levels of concentration analytical arguments show that higher profits logically follow as much from lower costs that are associated with higher levels of concentration as from collusion determined higher prices some empirical evidence that supports this belief is presented by demsetz peltzman and bradley gale and ben branch 1982 however their findings have been contested on the grounds that the data used are biased or inadequate or that the researchers have not demonstrated that the observed higher profits greater concentration relationship was caused by lower costs 2 the second criticism is that available data provide an inadequate basis for such conclusions the concentration numbers are based usually on industries defined by the commerce department s standard industrial classifications sic the sic definitions tend to be supply production rather than demand determined include nonhomogeneous products and exclude sales of similar products that are included in different sic groups or are imported the profit data are taken from accounting reports that provide poor measures of economic values weiss 1974 describes many of these problems however he does not believe that these shortcomings invalidate the studies as weiss 1979 concludes

capital intensity and the firm s cost of capital recent reports of negative capital intensity coefficients in struct ure performance equations support allegations of gross measurement error in accounting based measures of economic profitability this paper explores whether specification errors rather than measurement errors alone may explain this anomalous empirical result within a simultaneous equations model of capital intensity cost of capital and price cost margins the author employs hausman specification tests to demonstrate a negative bias on capital intensity and a positive bias on concentration when one omits firm specific cost of capital from price cost margin equations the roles of cost of capital and capital intensity are derived from formal structure performance theory copyright 1988 by mit press

budget deficit persistence and the twin deficits hypothesis abstract this paper gauges the twin deficits hypothesis i e a positive causal relationship between the external and budget deficits this relationship is measured by the responses of the external deficit to changes in the budget deficit induced by blanchard s model these responses are positively affected by the birth rate and by the degree of persistence of the budget deficit empirical results for the canadian and us economies reveal that although the relevant birth rates are small the great persistence of the budget deficits yields responses that are numerically large and statistically positive this contrasts with previous tests of the twin deficits hypothesis which have never formally taken into account the stochastic properties of the budget deficit

profit variability in for profit and not for profit hospitals this paper proposes two tests of the hypothesis that not for profit hospitals nfps behave differently than for profit hospitals the profit variability test states that the profits of an nfp will be less variable over time than profits of a for profit hospital if the nfp maximizes utility subject to a profit constraint the second test examines whether nfp profits respond less to change in exogenous factors such as medicare reimbursement rates than profits of for profit hospitals both tests performed on panel data from 1983 to 1988 support the hypothesis that nfps behave differently than for profit hospitals

the dynamics of make or buy decisions abstract make or buy decisions are strategically important for business firms particularly when production and marketing of components involves specialized technology and assets recent theories of make or buy decisions compare the cost of administering transactions inside a firm and across markets in this paper we extend these theories to a dynamic market in which profit from the use of specialized assets declines over time due to entry and substitution of technology using optimal control theory we investigate the patterns of vertical integration under different parametric conditions we also prevent empirical evidence from time series and cross sectional data that lend support to the analytical results from the model

effects of accounting techniques on the study of market power abstract this study uses a time series analysis to test for the effects of alternative depreciation and inventory accounting techniques on the estimation of firm level market power the key finding is that while alternative inventory measurement techniques have a significant effect on the estimated coefficients of a firm level profit structure model depreciation techniques have an insignificant effect on these coefficients this result is notable because previous researchers have focused exclusively on the biases due to accounting depreciation techniques and failed to see that alternative inventory techniques have the potential for causing the more significant biases

fiscal policy and trade adjustment are the deficits really twins i introduction the unprecedented increase of both the fiscal and trade deficits in the united states during the 1980s led many observers to posit a causal linkage a sizable contingent of economists believe that the twin deficits concept aptly characterizes the recent relationship between federal budgetary policy and the u s trade balance in this view increased federal fiscal deficits during the 1980s were a primary cause of the massive u s trade deficits experienced as the decade unfolded however this posited causal relationship does not command universal acceptance in this paper we examine data on u s trade and federal fiscal measures along with exchange and interest rates to uncover the empirical relationship between them and to discover whether fiscal policy plays an essential role in the adjustment of the massive u s trade imbalance the twin deficits concept asserts that the deficits are twins because they are related in the following manner increased government deficits are thought to put incipient upward pressure on real interest rates this induces incipient capital in flows that lift or appreciate the real exchange value of the currency which erodes competitiveness and after a time lag results in increased trade deficits a number of recent papers examine the relationship between budget and trade deficits each contributes important insights but nothing approaching a consensus has yet emerged miller and russek 1989 find evidence of a secular relationship between the deficits under two of the three statistical techniques they employ bernheim 1988 concludes that the government deficit is a prime determinant of u s trade deficits whereas evans 1989 enders and lee 1990 and dewald and ulan 1990 find no such causal impact of fiscal deficits darrat 1988 and abell 1990 report somewhat mixed results the conflicting results in the existing literature stem from wide differences in the empirical techniques data measures and samples employed further we have found in the literature and in our work reported below that the use of differenced data versus data in level form has a major impact on the results produced and inferences drawn recent empirical literature suggests that stationarity of data is a crucial element in model specification thus the question of whether or not to difference the data should be addressed before estimation and inference classical inference about stationarity of data suffers from what sims 1988 refers to as a discontinuity in the asymptotic theory hence the classical tests used in much of the previous literature have low power to reject the null hypothesis of nonstationarity in levels bayesian inference does not suffer from this problem therefore we generate posterior probabilities using monte carlo integration that estimate probabilities that suggest whether the data are better analyzed in level or difference form despite somewhat contrasting results the classical augmented dickey fuller tests and the bayesian probability estimates both suggest that a difference specification is inappropriate we analyze empirically a five variable nonstructural vector autoregressive var model the model includes both a federal government balance and a government purchases measure to summarize fiscal policy along with these two variables and a trade balance measure we constructed real interest rate and real exchange rate variables spanning a quarterly data sample from 1961 to 1989 we estimate the model in both levels and difference form using the level specification we find strong support for the twin deficit notion that government deficits are a cause of trade deficits whereas in differences we find no such relationship furthermore the results from our monte carlo work imply that the model specified in levels is likely most appropriate for estimation and inference ii contrasting theoretical frameworks the presence of both deficits in a variant of the basic savings investment identity may provide a useful reference as in bernheim 1988 and branson 1985 for discussing the hypothesized causal relationship embodied in popular twin deficits stories 1 tdef gdef i s

diversification ricardian rents and tobin s q according to prevailing theory firms diversify in response to excess capacity of factors that are subject to market failure by probing into the heterogeneity of these factors we develop the corollary that firms that elect to diversify most widely should expect the lowest average rents an empirical test with tobin s q as the measure of rents is consistent with this theory

the validity of roi as a measure of business performance business performance at the corporate level is widely assessed by the return through changes in the price of the stock and dividends to shareholders however corporate level performance analysis whether for strategic or public policy purposes is inappropriate in many instances because of the heterogeneity of the corporation s operations the strategic business units sbus comprising a corporation are often very diverse profitability analysis grouping these entities together yields few of the insights needed for strategic or public policy decision making because of this heterogeneity profitability analysis is often advocated and undertaken at the sbu level the absence of an equity market at the sbu level means that a measuring instrument other than that based on stock price must be used to assess profitability due to the lack of alternatives the performance of an sbu is almost always based on accounting data in particular the accounting measure return on investment roi is widely regarded as the most useful measure and ultimate bottom line test of business performance james reese and william cool 1978 it is used both as an objective of management and as a dependent criterion variable to evaluate the effect of various factors on performance despite its widespread use roi has been extensively criticized as being a totally inadequate indicator of economic rate of return g c harcourt 1965 ezra solomon 1971 franklin fisher and john mcgowan 1983 roi most typically defined as net income total assets 1 does not properly relate the stream of profits to the investment that produced it the earnings numerator is a consequence of investment decisions made in the past but the assets denominator can be expected to have had influence on not only past and current earnings but also to have influence on future earnings because of this failure to produce an accurate mapping roi has been criticized as being so seriously flawed that it bears little if any resemblance to the crucial concept of internal or economic rate of return the shortcomings of roi are said to be so severe that its cross sectional variations can be completely explained by the inappropriateness of the measure due to a lack of proven validity empirical investigations using roi have been labeled by fisher and mcgowan as totally misleading enterprises and by george benston 1985 as of doubtful value those making use of accounting roi argue that the noise created by the accounting distortions need not be expected to drown out the underlying signal of economic return contained in roi and therefore roi is still appropriate for use in analysis f m scherer 1979 and william long and david ravenscraft 1984 this paper examines the validity of roi as a measure of economic rate of return by ascertaining the existence and extent of the association of corporate level accounting roi with stock return a widely accepted indicator of business performance the null hypothesis for the analysis is that roi has no validity as a measure of business performance and as such will not exhibit an association with stock return while the tests provide direct evidence on the validity of corporate level roi the same underlying theorized inadequacies of accounting roi are also present at the sbu level 1 conclu

the economic efficiency of backward vertical integration in the international petroleum refining industry a benefit of backward vertical integration in the petroleum refining industry is reduced uncertainly in the supply of crude oil for refining however there is no a priori reason to believe that refiners are more skilful in managing combined refining and crude oil production operations than are specialists in these functions using the concept of frontier production functions efficiency differences between firms with differing degrees of backward vertical integration are estimated backward vertical integration improves scale efficieny and reduces business risk significantly but it reduces both technical and overall economic efficiency this is the first comprehensive empirical test of the efficiency of vertical integration in the literature

rates of return on corporate investment in the last two decades productivity has lagged in the united states markets have been lost to foreign competition real income per capita has grown slowly this experience has led to considerable discussion of possible causes 7 one possible cause often mentioned is the quality of managerial investment decisions managers have been accused of overinvesting in obsolete technologies of underinvesting in risky projects with long run payoffs of undertaking unprofitable mergers and of overall poor judgment in their investment policies 39 this paper presents evidence on the returns on investment over the 1970 88 period for a sample of 699 large corporations that is consistent with this view