equilibrium properties of auctions and alternative procedures for allocating transferable permits abstract this paper examines the equilibrium properties of a range of auctions and related procedures placing emphasis on the types of procedures that are likely to be of special interest in environmental management applications nash equilibrium properties are first derived for a very general class of auctions for multiple homogeneous or heterogeneous objects or permits next it is shown that given appropriate assumptions three broad classes of public allocation procedures that do not generate revenues for the government would yield participants equal expected profits these classes are 1 incentive compatible auctions where bidders receive equal lump sum refunds 2 non incentive compatible procedures where refunds are a function of participants bids and 3 free initial distribution of permits on a lump sum basis followed by trading via a competitive market the applicability of the general results is then demonstrated by examining the particular non incentive compatible fair division procedure originally suggested by knaster finally implications of the theoretical results for applications including the allocation of transferable discharge permits and water rights are discussed

using contests to allocate pollution rights in this paper we advocate a new initial allocation mechanism for a tradable pollution permit market we outline a permit allocation contest pac that distributes permits to firms based on their rank relative to other firms this ranking is achieved by ordering firms based on an observable external action where the external action is an activity or characteristic of the firm that is independent of their choice of emissions in the tradable permit market we argue that this mechanism has a number of benefits over auctioning and grandfathering using this mechanism efficiently distributes permits allows for the attainment of a secondary policy objective and has the potential to be more politically appealing than existing alternatives

market power in emission permit markets theory and evidence from the eu ets a well known result about market power in emission permit markets is that efficiency can be achieved by full free allocation to the dominant firm i show that this result breaks down when taking the interaction between input and output markets into account even if the dominant firm perceives market power in the permit market alone i then examine the empirical evidence for price manipulation by the ten largest electricity firms during phase i of the eu ets i find that some firms excess allowance holdings are consistent with strategic price manipulation and that they cannot be explained by price speculation or by precautionary purchases to insure against uncertain future emissions my results suggest that market power is likely to be an empirically relevant concern during the early years of emission permit markets

emission trading with fiscal externalities the case for a common carbon tax for the non ets emissions in the eu a government is fiscally constrained if it is unable to raise sufficient tax revenue to finance the first best level of public spending when involved in emission trading a fiscally constrained government will potentially seek to close its fiscal gap through emission permit sales this fiscal incentive therefore generates a fiscal externality in the permit market that is endogenous to the extent of fiscal constrainedness among the participating countries our theory explains how and when fiscal externalities may be expected to arise moreover we show that in a permit market equilibrium with fiscal externalities the initial allocation of emission permits between countries will affect 1 the price of emission permits 2 the global distribution of abatement effort and 3 total greenhouse gas mitigation costs this is contrary to the textbook model of emission permit markets our findings are especially relevant for the eu which is about to allow for trading in emission rights between eu member countries for all emissions outside the european emissions trading system

investment decisions and transferable discharge permits an empirical study of water quality management under policy uncertainty the problem of investiment decisions for sources participating in transferable discharge permit tdp markets has not received much attention one way tdps offer potential savings is with their ability to influence development in a region static models have assessed the potential savings of tdps but do not explicitly consider investment decisions thus they do not capture this long run role nor that of policy uncertainty and tend to understate both the cost saving potential and the difficulty in achieving it this paper addresses both problems by emphasizing the temporal dimension of tdps a two period investment model investigates the magnitude of these potential savings and the effects of two types of policy uncertainty upon expected gains from permit trading

the exercise of market power in laboratory experiments douglas d davis and charles a holt march 1998 introduction many aspects of antitrust policy are influenced by the possibility that sellers in concentrated markets may have the power to raise prices above competitive levels of course anyone can raise price so the issue is whether a change in structure e g a merger will allow one or more sellers to raise price profitably a price increase by one seller diverts sales to others so a firm is more likely to have market power when its competitors have limited capacity to expand their sales thus a merger that reduces competitors capacity may create market power in laboratory experiments any treatment that reassigns units of capacity from one seller to another may create or destroy market power even if the aggregate supply curve is unchanged for example giving one seller a relatively large endowment of infra marginal low cost units may make it less risky for this seller to raise price and forego the sale of high cost units thus it is not surprising that experiments with apparently similar supply and demand structures may yield different price outcomes as discussed below there are a number of other ways in which structural changes can affect the degree of power that sellers enjoy market power can also be sensitive to the trading institution and this is the context that power issues first arose in experimental economics for example the public posting of uniform prices in a posted offer auction eliminates the incentive to offer discounts on marginal units that arises in a double auction in fact smith 1981 found that even monopolists are sometimes unable to maintain prices above competitive levels in double auctions whereas supra competitive prices are the norm in postedoffer monopolies similarly holt langan and villamil 1986 found that sellers in concentrated double auctions were sometimes able to raise prices but that prices fell to competitive levels in about half of the sessions despite the high concentration of seller capacity davis and williams 1991 replicated the holt langan and villamil results for double auctions and then used the same market

innovation diversity and diffusion a self organisation model a number of features of innovation diffusion are identified appropriability diversity expectations selection learning and spillover externalities a dynamic model is formul ated to embed the diffusion question into a more general framework of disequilibrium competition the model incorporates distinct vintage structures reflecting a change in technological trajectory learning by using a nd expectations driven investment rules of thumb simulation studies reveal robust quasi logistic curves but a complicated pattern of net market share gains and losses uncertainty regarding the rationality of early or late adoption it is argued ensures that the requisite behavioral variety is present to generate these diffusion patterns copyright 1988 by royal economic society

economics and the self organisation approach alfred marshall revisited the economics of alfred marshall is reassessed in the light of new developments in the natural sciences whereby a nonequilibrium thermodynamic approach is adopted to analyze self organization in dissipative structures it is argued that there is a clear correspondence between marshall s treatment of time irreversibility and this modern approach particularly when the latter is set in an informational context thus his principles is viewed as a very useful starting point in adapting the self organization approach for application in economics the main features of such a post marshallian approach to economics are discussed and compared with the mechanical approach of neoclassicism copyright 1993 by royal economic society

deceleration of economic growth the main course seeking sustainability in developed countries abstract deceleration of economic growth is a characteristic feature of developed countries percentage gross domestic product gdp growth rate in the old organization for economic co operation and development oecd countries has decreased approximately 2 3 times over the last 50 years and countries have managed successfully to adopt this trend the largest reduction of gdp growth rate was observed in countries such as japan where the biocapacity exceedance was the largest in addition the analysis of long term changes of gdp and self reported life satisfaction in developed countries supports easterlin s paradox indicating that richer people do not feel more satisfied with their lives however people from countries with higher per capita gdp feel more satisfied at the same time a statistically insignificant correlation was detected between gdp growth rate and life satisfaction supporting a conclusion that in the developed countries further economic growth does not increase people s well being this suggests that decelerating the rate of economic growth gradually approaching the zero growth steady state phase is the natural way towards sustainability and it does not contradict the well being objective in developed countries especially ones with high biocapacity exceedance

strategic state level environmental policy with asymmetric pollution spillovers this paper examines the strategic behavior of state level utility regulators in the context of the federal tradable emissions permits market when state to state pollution spillovers are asymmetric strategic behavior is possible because a state s environmental policy indirectly affects the price of permits and therefore abatement in other states we show that the optimal pollution penalty is comprised of two parts i a pigouvian tax adjusted for state to state spillovers and ii an optimal tariff designed to improve the terms of trade in permits generally abatement costs are not minimized and the outcome is pareto inefficient regardless of the size of the market 2001 elsevier science b v all rights reserved

stochastic pollution costly sanctions and optimality of emission permit banking abstract this paper identifies a new economic motive for pollution regulations that allow polluting firms to bank and borrow emission permits over time when aggregate pollution is stochastic an intertemporal permit trading regime can provide firms with efficient incentives for pollution abatement without the need for costly government enforcement actions that would otherwise be required

the problem of the commons still unsettled after 100 years the problem of the commons is more important to our lives and thus more central to economics than a century ago when katharine coman led off the first issue of the american economic review as the us and other economies have grown the carrying capacity of the planet in regard to natural resources and environmental quality has become a greater concern particularly for commonproperty and open access resources the focus of this article is on some important unsettled problems of the commons within the realm of natural resources there are special challenges associated with renewable resources which are frequently characterized by open access an important example is the degradation of openaccess fisheries critical commons problems are also associated with environmental quality a key contribution of economics has been the development of market based approaches to environmental protection these instruments are key to addressing the ultimate commons problem of the twenty first century global climate change jel q15 q21 q22 q25 q54

from simplistic to complex systems in economics the applicability of complex systems theory in economics is evaluated and compared with standard approaches to economic theorising based upon constrained optimisation a complex system is defined in the economic context and differentiated from complex systems in physio chemical and biological settings it is explained why it is necessary to approach economic analysis from a network rather than a production and utility function perspective when we are dealing with complex systems it is argued that much of heterodox thought particularly in neo schumpeterian and neo austrian evolutionary economics can be placed within a complex systems perspective upon the economy the challenge is to replace prevailing simplistic theories based in constrained optimisation with simple theories derived from network representations in which value is created through the establishment of new connections between elements

assessing the relative merits of development charges and transferable development rights in an uncertain world traditionally regulatory instruments have been used to achieve planning objectives however emerging market based policy instruments such as transferable development rights a quantity based app

the australian growth miracle an evolutionary macroeconomic explanation an evolutionary macroeconomic approach is applied to explain economic growth in australia from 1901 to 2008 support is found for the hypothesis that there were two distinct developmental phases before and after world war ii the evidence suggests that in each phase growth followed an innovation diffusion trajectory made possible by a growing capital stock in the first phase capital equipment seems to have augmented labour while in the second it reduced labour inputs replaced by cheap fossil fuel inputs this allowed significant transfers of labour into an expanding service sector strong economies of scale were operative in both phases with labour hour inputs dominating in the first phase and fossil fuel consumption in the second the results indicate that the australian economy currently has very strong growth potential over the coming decade although its heavy reliance on fossil fuels is viewed as a threat in the medium term

the economics of the profit rate competition crises and historical tendencies in capitalism part 1 the profit rate the economics of the profit rate a summary definitions and measures of the profit rate part 2 competition and prices of production prices of production long term equilibrium in classical and walrasian models the classical analysis of competition convergence part 3 general disequilibrium a general disequilibrium model development of the basic model proportions and dimension in the short and long terms out of the mainstream part 4 stability and business fluctuations the real and monetary determinants of macro in stability the impact of the profit rate on the macroeconomy business fluctuations in other paradigms part 5 technology and distribution a historical perspective the historical profile of the profit rate historical tendencies accumulation and growth profitability trends part 6 history profitability and management a chronological overview the historical dynamics of capitalism

an evolutionary macroeconomic model of australian dollar m3 determination 1967 93 an evolutionary macroeconomic approach stressing institutional behaviour is used to estimate a model of australian dollar m3 it is estimated in first differences by both ordinary and two stage least squares a very stable endogenous money supply model is discovered a novel aspect is the inclusion of a real property value variable which plays a key role a small but very stable interest elasticity is recorded it is concluded that financial deregulation does not prevent us from discovering a stable australian m3 equation as is often suggested conclusions are drawn with respect to the conduct of monetary policy

econometric modelling in the presence of evolutionary change a methodology is offered which can be used to construct an econometric model in the presence of structural change of an evolutionary type the theoretical basis for such modelling is drawn from the self organisation approach and operationalised in the context of the logistic diffusion growth model the latter is augmented to allow for the impact of exogenous effects upon both the diffusion rate and boundary limit we show how the hypothesis of augmented logistic diffusion can be falsified using econometric methods an illustrative case study is used namely the growth and decline of australian building society deposits with the aid of this example it is shown how the approach could be of use to both economic forecasters and regulators in conditions of structural change where conventional econometric methods are often inappropriate jel classification c51 c53 e42 e47 g18 o31

a trading ratio system for trading water pollution discharge permits abstract the fact that water flows to the lowest level uni directionally is a very specific and useful property of water by utilizing this property we design a trading ratio system trs of tradable discharge permits for water pollution control such a trading ratio system has three main characteristics 1 the zonal effluent cap is set by taking into account the water pollutant loads transferred from the upstream zones 2 the trading ratios are set equal to the exogenous transfer coefficients among zones and 3 permits are freely tradable among dischargers according to the trading ratios this paper shows that the trs can take care of the location effect of a discharge and can achieve the predetermined standards of environmental quality at minimum aggregate abatement costs problems with hot spots and free riding can be avoided and the burdens on both dischargers and the environmental authority should be relatively light

an international policy architecture for the post kyoto era in february 2005 the kyoto protocol to the united nations framework convention on climate change came into force but without participation by the united states its impacts on emissions of greenhouse gases including carbon dioxide co2 the primary anthropogenic driver of climate change will be trivial but scientific robert t watson 2001 and economic charles d kolstad and michael a toman 2001 analyses point to the need for a credible international approach because the kyoto protocol s ambitious targets apply only to the short term 2008 2012 and only to industrialized nations the agreement will impose relatively high costs and generate only modest short term benefits while failing to provide a real solution joseph e aldy et al 2003 for these reasons most economists see the agreement as deeply flawed richard n cooper 1998 david g victor 2001 warwick j mckibbin and peter j wilcoxen 2002 although some see it as an acceptable first step axel michaelowa 2003 virtually all agree however that the protocol is not sufficient to the overall challenge we describe the basic features of a postkyoto international global climate agreement which addresses three crucial questions who when and how the respective elements are first a means to ensure that key nations industrialized and developing are involved second an emphasis on an extended time path of action employing a cost effective pattern over time and third inclusion of market based policy instruments i who expand participation to include all key countries

macro economic forecasting and modelling confidence in macro economic forecasting has periodically been punctured by episodes of economic turbulence and concomitant predictive failure the poor performance in predicting the consumer boom in the late i98os and the depth and duration of the recession in the i99os can be viewed as merely the latest examples in a catalogue of failures with noteworthy antecedents including the under prediction of post war consumption and the i974 5 and i979 81 recessions periods of economic turbulence may be informative in highlighting model inadequacy but they also being into question the usefulness of economic forecasting 2 should we be surprised that such failures have occurred econometric theory comprises a body of tools and techniques for analysing the properties of prospective methods under hypothetical states of nature in the forecasting context the methods are forecasting models and procedures and the states of nature relate to the properties of the variables to be forecast for an econometric theory of forecasting to be useful in terms of delivering relevant conclusions about empirical forecasting those states must adequately capture thfie appropriate aspects of the real world to be forecast however the traditional text book theory of economic forecasting fails to allow for a number of vital features of the economy in particular analyses of forecasting have usually been based on assumptions that implicitly rule out structural change or regime shifts in the economy namely i a constant time invariant data generating process dgp 2 a stationary non integrated dgp 3 a unique model of the economy which coincides with the dgp under these assumptions particularly i and 3 forecasts calculated as the conditional expectation given the model are optimal in the sense that they are unbiased and efficient any other forecast will have a larger forecast error variance by definition if the model is the dgp then the expected future value of the variable given all information available at the present time is the conditional expectation with respect to the model in general forecasts are not financial support from the uk economic and social research council under grant rooo233447 is gratefully acknowledged by both authors neil ericsson provided many helpful comments on an earlier draft 1 spanos i989 considers the contemporary predictive failure of aggregate consumption functions over 1945 51 arguing that model mis specification played a role wallis i989 discusses the forecasting record of the major uk model based forecasting teams for the i974 5 and i979 8i recessions

auction design for the allocation of emission permits in the presence of market power to the extent that emission permits have been allocated using market mechanisms this has been done using a sealed bid auction design typically with discriminatory prices however several authors have recommended the ascending auction format basically two competing ascending auction designs have been suggested the standard ascending auction with clock or demand schedules or an alternative ascending clock implementation of vickrey pricing the latter design was introduced as a response to problems of bid shading under the sealed bid and the standard ascending auction format the purpose of this paper is to investigate the allocation of permits under these two alternative mechanisms the auction process and the resulting market outcome in the presence of oligopolistic competition are simulated in this setting it is not obvious that bid shading is the optimal strategy under the standard design nor is it obvious that sincere bidding is the optimal strategy under the alternative ascending auction design the alternative auction format makes it less costly to pursue a strategy to increase market shares through the acquisition of emission permits thus increasing the competitor s costs leading to overbidding as the optimal strategy

further results on permit markets with market power and cheating abstract this paper examines a market for pollution permits in which one firm has market power and one or more firms is noncompliant i show that the firm with market power may choose to hold more permits than it needs effectively retiring permits from the market i also show that some noncompliance may be socially desirable because it can mitigate the distortion caused by market power similarly some degree of market power may be socially desirable because it can in turn mitigate the distortion caused by noncompliance

the design of a dynamic tradeable quota system under market imperfections abstract market power within a dynamic system of tradeable quotas with banking and borrowing of quotas leads to a nonoptimal distribution of abatement across agents in this paper we introduce a quota system that may reduce the efficiency loss from market power and thereby result in a distribution of abatement across agents that is closer to a cost effective outcome however this system will in general lead to a nonoptimal distribution of abatement across periods hence we may face a trade off between a cost effective distribution of abatement across periods and reduced adverse effects of market power

environmental regulation a value theoretic and class based analysis following a value theoretic and class based approach it is argued in this paper that ecological problems are inseparably linked to the process of extracting surplus value in capitalism and owing to their adverse impacts instigate struggles over the appropriation of nature these struggles fought within and outside the state by competing agents shape environmental regulation in particular taxes permits command and control measures and subsidies affect prices profits and rents and have class and other social implications evidence of current environmental regulation shows that it takes places under the great influence of capitalist concerns

multi sector model of tradable emission permits this paper presents a multi sector model of tradable emission permits which includes oligopolistic and perfectly competitive industries the firms in oligopolistic industries are assumed to exercise market power in the tradable permit market as well as in the product market specifically we examine the effects of the initial permit allocation on the equilibrium outcomes focusing on the interaction among these product and permit markets it is shown that raising the number of initial permits allocated to one firm in an oligopolistic industry increases the output produced by that firm under certain conditions raising a clean less polluting firm s share of the initial permits can lead to reductions in both the product and permit prices we discuss criteria for the socially optimal allocation of initial permits considering the trade off between production inefficiency and consumer benefit

tradable quota taxation and market power abstract we investigate how corrective taxation can improve the efficiency properties of tradable quota systems affected by market power indeed we show that when there is a dominant firm in the tradable quota market the regulator can set an ad hoc taxation on firms traded quotas that restores cost effectiveness without driving the dominant firm s net demand to zero achieving cost effectiveness with market power and quota taxation implies some costs in terms of tax revenue that however can be justified by the corresponding reduction of compliance costs moreover we see that there may be cases where all firms result to be better off after the implementation of corrective taxation

fishing quota markets abstract in 1986 new zealand responded to the open access problem by establishing the world s largest individual transferable quota itq system using a 15 year panel dataset from new zealand that covers 33 species and more than 150 markets for fishing quotas we assess trends in market activity price dispersion and the fundamentals determining quota prices we find that market activity is sufficiently high in the economically important markets and that price dispersion has decreased we also find evidence of economically rational behavior through the relationship between quota lease and sale prices and fishing output and input prices ecological variability and market interest rates controlling for these factors our results show a greater increase in quota prices for fish stocks that faced significant reductions consistent with increased profitability due to rationalization overall this suggests that these markets are operating reasonably well implying that itqs can be effective instruments for efficient fisheries management

sustainability of catch up growth in the extended european union abstract this paper analyses the compatibility of growth and sustainability in the european union eu including a new eu member states from the former soviet bloc eu 10 the extension of eu borders financial and technological support stimulated rapid convergence and decreased the socio economic differences between the old eu 15 and newly accepted eu member states the transition from a command to a market economy resulted in the remarkable increase in resource efficiency and other positive aspects of sustainability along with 1 5 times increased gdp final energy consumption decreased by 20 greenhouse gases emissions by 25 and the emissions of acidifying compounds were halved during the period from the collapse of former soviet bloc to the recent economic crisis however the per capita production and consumption in eu 10 is still approximately half that of eu 15 and further catch up growth should be expected ensuring that economic and social cohesion is not achieved at the expense of increased environmental impact decelerated economic growth is a feature characteristic of mature economies and the gdp growth rate in eu 15 states decreased almost 2 5 times during the last 50 year similar trends are characteristic of other developed countries and market economies have adapted to this trend even with a decelerated growth rate the ecological footprint in developed countries currently exceeds three and more times the allowable limits and almost two thirds of the ecological footprint relates to traditional energy de fossilisation by a greater increase in energy efficiency use of renewable energy and more intense material recovery is the most promising option for reducing the ecological footprint of these countries deceleration of the economic growth rate supplemented by the aforementioned options is a hard but realistic track leading to the reduction of ecological footprint in developed countries to allowable limits without radical de growth in consumption and production that can result in unpredictable and unacceptable consequences

market power and transferable property rights the appeal of using markets as a means of allocating scarce resources stems in large part from the assumption that a market will approximate the competitive ideal when competition is not a foregone conclusion the question naturally arises as to how a firm might manipulate the market to its own advantage this paper analyzes the issue of market power in the context of markets for transferable property rights first a model is developed that explains how a single firm with market power might exercise its influence this is followed by an examination of the model in the context of a particular policy problem the control of particulate sulfates in the los angeles region

economic emergence an evolutionary economic perspective abstract the standard neoclassical approach to economic theorising excludes by definition economic emergence and the related phenomenon of entrepreneurship we explore how the most economic of human behaviours entrepreneurship came to be largely excluded from mainstream economic theory in contrast we report that evolutionary economists have acknowledged the importance of understanding emergence and we explore the advances that have been made in this regard we go on to argue that evolutionary economics can make further progress by taking a more naturalistic approach to economic evolution this requires that economic analysis be fully embedded in complex economic system theory and that associated understandings as to how humans react to states of uncertainty be explicitly dealt with we argue that knowledge because of the existence of uncertainty is to a large degree conjectural and thus is closely linked to our emotional states our economic behaviour is also influenced by the reality that we and the systems that we create are dissipative structures thus we introduce the notions of energy gradients and knowledge gradients as essential concepts in understanding economic emergence and resultant economic growth

intertemporal emission trading with a dominant agent how does a restriction on borrowing affect efficiency in this paper we analyze how restricting intertemporal trading by prohibiting borrowing of emissions permits affects the ability of a dominant agent to exploit its market power we show that the monopolist could take advantage of the constraint on borrowing by not distributing the sale of permits cost effectively across periods furthermore we show that a constant present value price over time does not imply a cost effective distribution of abatement permit sales across periods

do transaction costs influence firm trading behaviour in the european emissions trading system this study is one of the first to empirically investigate firm trading behaviour and the importance of permit trading transaction costs such as information costs and search costs in the first phase of the european union s emissions trading system eu ets the signs and significance of our constructed transaction costs proxy variables indicate for a presence of these costs in the initial years of the eu ets in particular this paper shows that ets firms with the smaller number of installations and with less trading experience were less likely to participate in the european emissions trading market and traded the lower quantities of permits furthermore these firms chose to trade permits indirectly via third parties this study also supports the concerns that transaction costs could be excessive for smaller participants and firms operating in the new eu member states

market power in tradable emission markets a laboratory testbed for emission trading in port phillip bay victoria abstract in theory competitive emission permit markets minimize total abatement costs permit markets are often imperfectly competitive however and may be thin and dominated by large firms the dominant firm s could exercise market power and increase other firms costs of pollution control while reducing their own emission control costs this paper reports a testbed laboratory experiment to examine whether a dominant firm can exercise market power in a permit market organized using the double auction trading institution our parameters approximate the abatement costs of sources in a proposed tradable emissions market for the reduction of nitrogen in the port phillip watershed in victoria australia we vary across treatments the initial allocation of permits to sources so that in one treatment the seller of permits is a monopolist and in another treatment the market is duopolistic we also vary the information that subjects have about the number and abatement costs of their competitors we find that prices and seller profits are higher and efficiency is lower on average in the monopoly sessions compared with the duopoly sessions but the differences are not substantial and are not statistically significant due to pronounced variation across sessions moreover prices profits and transaction volumes are usually much closer to the competitive equilibrium ce than the monopoly equilibrium

market power with interdependent demand sale of emission permits and natural gas from russia with implementation of the kyoto protocol russia will most likely be able to exert market power in the emission permit market but as russia is also a big exporter of fossil fuels the incentives to boost the permit price may be weak however a significant share of russia s fossil fuel exports is natural gas if a high permit price boosts the demand for natural gas through substitution from more polluting fuels and thus increase gas profits this may increase the incentives to exert monopoly power in the permit market moreover a large fossil fuel exporter may use its market position to influence the effective demand for permits hence the relationship between permit income and fossil fuels exports runs in both directions in this article we explore the interdependence between the revenues from permit and fossil fuel exports both theoretically and numerically a computable general equilibrium model suggests the fact that russia as a big gas exporter has small effect on the incentives to exert monopoly power in the permit market moreover russia s monopoly power in the permit market has a small but non negligible impact on the optimal level of russian gas exports

transitional restricted linkage between emissions trading schemes linkages between emissions trading systems are deemed an important element of the future climate policy landscape they are however difficult to agree and remain few and far between temporary restrictions on permit trading have potential to facilitate and gradually approach unrestricted full linkage we compare the relative merits of several link restrictions in this respect namely quantitative transfer limits border taxes on transfers exchange and discount rates and unilateral linkage to this end we develop a simple model to have a unifying framework which in conjunction with lessons we draw from real world experiences serves as a basis for a broader policy oriented discussion while quantitative restrictions seem to be the natural route to full linkage they can lead to uncertain distributional effects and weaken price signals these aspects are mitigated under a border permit tax but this policy seems harder to implement exchange rates have potential to adjust for programmes stringencies and raise ambition over time but can be challenging to select as experience corroborates unilateral linkage can be a convenient approach

the real effect of banking crises finance or asset allocation effects some international evidence abstract this paper analyzes whether the decline in economic growth that follows a banking crisis occurs because of a reduction in the amount of credit available finance effect or a worsening in the allocation of investable resources asset allocation effect we use a sample of more than 2500 industrial firms in 18 developed and developing countries that experienced 19 systemic banking crises between 1989 and 2007 the results indicate that banking crises negatively affect firms intangible investments which intensifies the economic downturn the negative growth effect produced by the worsening of the investment allocation is stronger in countries with highly developed financial systems and institutions

a tradable permit system in an intertemporal economy it is known that in an intertemporal competitive economy a tradable permit system may not achieve efficiency without setting appropriate permit interest rates i e rewards for holding permits to find the rates however we need to know in advance the path of efficient permit prices which is difficult to obtain this study intends to solve this problem in two ways first we analyze a special case in which the permit interest rates are given by a simple rule for example if the marginal abatement cost of pollution emission is constant then the appropriate rate is to equal the monetary interest rate as is the case for global warming if the damage is caused in the future far beyond the planning period of the environmental program the appropriate rate coincides with the marginal self recovery of environmental stock under certain conditions as a second approach we propose a tradable permit system with a permit bank as a mechanism by which the permit interest rates are generated endogenously without governmental intervention other than the issuance of permits however we also show that this approach raises the problem of indeterminacy of the equilibrium

assessing the performance of the uk emissions trading scheme the uk s climate change programme introduced an emissions trading scheme ets for greenhouse gases firms in over 40 industrial sectors which have negotiated climate change agreements setting quantitative energy efficiency targets can use the ets to trade over and under compliance with these targets in parallel a limited number of firms have become major participants in the ets as a result of an auction of subsidies for additional abatement commitments the paper describes the uk arrangements and assesses the economic efficiency and environmental effectiveness of the ets drawing on evidence of participants behaviour both in the incentive auction and in subsequent trading

crypto currency bubbles an application of the phillips shi yu 2013 methodology on mt gox bitcoin prices the creation of bitcoin heralded the arrival of digital or crypto currency and has been regarded as a phenomenon since its introduction it has experienced a meteoric rise in price and rapid growth accompanied by huge volatility swings and also attracted plenty of controversies which even involved law enforcement agencies hence claims abound that bitcoin has been characterized by bubbles ready to burst any time e g the recent collapse of bitcoin s biggest exchange mt gox this has earned plenty of coverage in the media but surprisingly not in the academic literature we therefore fill this knowledge gap we conduct an econometric investigation of the existence of bubbles in the bitcoin market based on a recently developed technique that is robust in detecting bubbles that of phillips et al 2013a over the period 2010 2014 we detected a number of short lived bubbles most importantly we found three huge bubbles in the latter part of the period 2011 2013 lasting from 66 to 106 days with the

free trade and global warming a trade theory view of the kyoto protocol this paper demonstrates how three important results in environmental economics true under mild conditions in closed economies are false or need serious amendment in a world with international trade in goods since the three results we highlight have framed much of the ongoing discussion and research on the kyoto protocol our viewpoint from trade theory suggests a re examination may be in order specifically we demonstrate that in an open trading world but not in a closed economy setting 1 unilateral emission reductions by the rich north can create self interested emission reductions by the unconstrained poor south 2 simple rules for allocating emission reductions across countries such as uniform reductions may well be efficient even if international trade in emission permits is not allowed and 3 when international emission permit trade does occur it may make both participants in the trade worse off and increase global emissions

ex post efficient permit markets a detailed analysis this paper provides a detailed analysis of ex post efficient permit markets after a short review of institutional designs that can achieve ex post efficiency under uncertainty and asymmetric information we analyze the effects of an ex post efficient regulation on the expected costs of the regulated firms on their investment behavior and on the incentives for strategic behavior on imperfectly competitive permit markets also we inquire about the budget effects of the regulation our results show that ex post efficient permit markets have considerable benefits beside the direct increase in expected social welfare

the determination of sterling m3 1963 88 an evolutionary macroeconomic approach an evolutionary approach which focuses upon the behavior of banks and their institutional links with the bank of england is used to understand the process of sterling m3 determination over 1963 88 it is argued on several grounds that this supply side approach is more fruitful than one that applies money demand theory furthermore the econometric methodology adopted is different to that generally found in the money demand literature in addition to the discovery of a stable evolutionary model of sterling m3 an important finding is that property prices are influential in its determination copyright 1992 by royal economic society