agricultural payments and land concentration a semiparametric spatial regression analysis over the last twenty years both crop production and agricultural payments have shifted toward larger operations this study examines whether payments from federal farm programs contributed to increased concentration of cropland and farmland using zip code level data constructed from the microfiles of the 1987 2002 agriculture censuses we examine the association between government payments per acre and subsequent growth in land concentration a semiparametric generalized additive model gam controls for location and historical concentration sales per acre and ratio of cropland area to zip code area findings indicate both with and without nonparametric controls government payments are strongly associated with subsequent concentration growth copyright 2008 oxford university press

economic welfare evaluations for producers under uncertainty the validity of producer and consumer surplus measures of firm welfare under risk is examined under constant absolute risk aversion and output price uncertainty only these measures are an exact measure of firm welfare as defined by compensating variation equivalent variation or the change in the certainty equivalent under decreasing absolute risk aversion qualitative comparisons of various measures are discussed for example producer s surplus as measured by the area above the uncompensated risk averse supply curve overstates the compensating variation of a change in expected price of output procedures for calculating firm welfare under production uncertainty and a variety of economic environments are proposed generally these procedures are applicable only when absolute risk aversion is constant

government policies and farm size does the size concept matter this paper employs a panel data set of 48 states from 1960 to 1996 to investigate the relationships of government policies public agricultural research and development r d extension and government commodity program payments to changes in farm size five different farm size measures are considered acres operated per farm real land and building value per farm real cash receipts per farm real cash receipts plus government payments per farm and an imputed measure of the real capital service flow per farm in order to make a more general statement about the impacts of government policies on farm size it was found that the impacts of government policies on farm size are in general robust to the measure of farm size considered more specifically it was found that r d extension and government payments all have positive effects on farm size

the value of ideal contingency markets in agriculture an incomplete markets equilibrium in which no contingency markets are available is compared to a complete markets equilibrium formed by introducing a futures market and a crop insurance market the two regimes are compared using comparative static and welfare analyses numerical examples highlight important characteristics of the model and illustrate how the effects of introducing contingency markets can be quantified the main conclusions are that contingency markets in agriculture increase economic efficiency but there is no guarantee that farmers and consumers both benefit it is found that futures and crop insurance markets may reduce farmer welfare when the demand for farm products is price inelastic

safety and quality regulation and stage of distribution let 0 denote the level of quality inherent in a food product that is delivered to some terminal market in this paper i characterize allocations over 0 and provide an economic rationale for regulating safety and quality standards in the food system zusman and bockstael investigate the theoretical foundations for imposing standards and stress the importance of providing a tractable conceptual foundation despite a wealth of contributions that are mainly empirical for reviews of these works see respectively caswell and antle there have been relatively few attempts to model formally the linkages between farm and food markets when food quality and consumer safety are at issue here i attempt to provide such a framework building on key contributions in the theoretical literature and linking them in a simple model of quality determination in a vertically related marketing channel the food marketing model is due to gardner spence provides a foundation for pareto improving intervention in a deterministic model of quality provision and leland building on the classic paper by akerlof investigates licensing and minimum standards when the information structure is incomplete linking these ideas in a satisfactory model of the food markets is the main objective of the paper

errors in the numerical assessment of the benefits of price stabilization this paper presents a simple computational procedure for determining a consumer s willingness to pay to have a price stabilization policy implemented numerical simulations are then provided which demonstrate that the commonly used expected surplus measures whether hicksian or marshallian can in fact seriously misstate the true benefits of price stabilization these simulations also illustrate the extent to which the results may be dependent upon the assumptions made implicitly or explicitly regarding the consumer s attitudes toward risk thereby underscoring the need to conduct sensitivity analyses to determine the robustness of cost benefit assessments with respect to these assumptions

optimal strategic petroleum reserve policies a steady state analysis a simple model is presented which allows us to determine the optimal size fillup and drawdown rates for a strategic petroleum reserve spr under a variety of supply and demand conditions the optimal policy variables are determined by minimizing an analytic expression which we derive for the expected insecurity cost rate to the u s due to uncertainty in supply of imported oil the oil market is modeled in terms of an elastic demand curve and two levels of supply which alternate according to a stationary continuous time markov process the spr policy is characterized by a fixed fillup rate up to the reserve s capacity when supply is at its normal level and a fixed drawdown rate during shortages the insecurity cost rate being minimized includes consumer welfare loss due to price hikes reserve holding cost and capital appreciation of the reserve base case results and sensitivity analysis are presented and compared to results obtained by previous approaches these comparisons suggest that the proposed model can reasonably approximate the more computationally demanding stochastic dynamic programming formulation the main advantage of the new approach is that it permits extensive sensitivity analysis which is important given the quality of the data

price changes supply elasticities industry organization and dairy output distribution long run price elasticities of milk supply are decomposed into price elasticities of yield herd size and farm population for northeastern u s dairy farms these elasticities are shown to vary with farm size because of size related differences in capital intensity specialization yield and herd size variability and rates of entry exit into dairy in the short run price responsiveness is shown to decrease with farm size in the long run large farms are shown to be most price responsive results suggest that lower milk prices could make revenue distribution less equal in both the short and long run by altering output and population distributions

do wealth gains from land appreciation cause farmers to expand acreage or buy land recent increases in farm real estate values in the united states have increased farm equity by exploiting periods of high and low appreciation that caused various increases in wealth for farmers owning various shares of their farmland we examine whether u s grain farmers expanded their acres harvested or acres owned in response to an increase in their land wealth we find that land wealth had little effect on farm size however for similarly sized farms a larger ownership share 10 percentage points led to an increase in the growth of land owned 2 percentage points because older farmers own more of the land that they farm greater land appreciation slows the rate at which younger farmers acquire land relative to older farmers

a multiple objective decision support model for the selection of remote load control strategies utilities frequently use remote load control as an effective means to achieve suitable network operational conditions this procedure usually designated load management lm is a part of the resources considered under the general designation of demand side management dsm however the use of lm in electric distribution network management is a problem that involves different conflicting aspects such as reducing peak demand maximizing utility profits and minimizing discomfort caused to consumers hence the problem is multiobjective in nature economical technical and quality of service aspects must all be explicitly accounted for in mathematical models this paper presents a multiobjective decision support model which allows the consideration of the main concerns that have an important role in lm minimize peak demand as perceived by the distribution network dispatch center maximize utility profit corresponding to the energy services delivered by the controlled loads maximize quality of service in the context of lm

prices technology and farm size in this paper we construct and empirically test a theory of the agricultural firm which explains the long term growth in farm size in the united states typically the u s farm unit is a family enterprise consequently the ratio of the opportunity cost of farm labor to the price of machinery services determines the size of the farm operation by influencing the machine labor ratio applying the model to u s data we explain virtually all of the growth in the machine labor ratio and in farm size over the 1930 70 period by changes in relative factor prices without reference to technological change or economies of scale

supply management with intermittent trade disruptions when the probabilities are not fully known abstract previous studies of trade disruptions have assumed that the probabilistic transition rates between normal and disrupted markets are known this may be unreasonable if disruptions occur infrequently in this paper a bayesian procedure for estimating the transition rates is derived under the assumption that the transition processes are exogenous and poisson the procedure is applied to the problem of managing emergency reserves in an import dependent economy time consistent plans for consuming and replenishing reserves are derived optimal reserves are found to be generally larger than if the transition rates were known and equal to current expected values

the determination of spot and futures prices with storable commodities this paper analyzes the effects of futures trading in a market for a storable commodity in which producers and speculators are assumed to be risk averse and specifications of the aggregate supply and inventory demand functions are derived from explicit optimization a critical aspect is how the parameters of these functions change with the introduction of the future market as it is through these induced parameter changes that the futures market exerts its influence on the spot price the effects of the futures market on both the long run average spot price and its variance are analyzed while we are unable to draw any definitive conclusions on this issue we find that in all cases considered the futures market stabilizes the spot price as well as lowering its long run mean for many years now the question of the effects of futures trading on the stability of spot prices has been extensively debated this topic has been discussed at various levels for example farmers and agricultural interest groups have claimed that futures trading destabilizes spot prices thereby imposing welfare losses on the economy in the united states congress has decided that futures trading can cause price destabilization and has subjected futures trading to the regulation of the commodity futures trading commission at a more analytical level economists have been investigating the issue both empirically and more recently theoretically as well

climate change health care access and regional influence on components of u s agricultural productivity this article examines factors driving three components of total factor productivity change tfpc in u s agriculture technical change tc technical efficiency change tec and scale and mix e

agricultural settlement with joint production services abstract a theory of settlement planning focussing on village level production services is presented and settlement plans are compared the analysis draws on the modern theory of local public goods conditions for optimal level of services and optimum settlement size are derived together with rules of finance of collective operations the value of the right to settle is calculated for the cases considered

the choice of techniques and the optimality of market equilibrium with rational expectations this paper shows that in the absence of a complete set of risk markets prices provide incorrect signals for guiding production decisions even if all individuals have rational expectations concerning the distribution of prices which will prevail on the market next period the market allocation is in general not a constrained pareto optimum essentially the only conditions under which for all technologies the market equilibrium is a constrained pareto optimum are those in which risk markets are redundant we derive the necessary and sufficient conditions for redundancy of risk markets which turn out to be extremely restrictive

farmland accumulation and prices a model of farmland accumulation is developed to study factors influencing u s farmland values this model stresses the manner in which credit is allocated for land purchases to secure necessary loans for additional land to expand farm size the farmer provides as collateral his net accumulated wealth thus land acquisitions are made to increase profits and to provide leverage for further land expansion besides income and consumption the level of accumulated debt is one of the main determinants of farmland prices derived demand for farmland is developed and the pricing equation for farmland is estimated as part of a structural equation model

effects of differing farm policies on farm structure and dynamics the u s farm sector is characterized by a great deal of heterogeneity one reason for the heterogeneity in farm sizes is the multiple objectives of producers which in addition to profit making include a high quality rural lifestyle the traditional aggregate indicators capture the heterogeneity but relatively is knowing about the changing dynamics of the u s farm sector this chapter explores the dynamics of agriculture by considering exit entry and volatility using farm level data from 1978 to 1997 and the mobility of surviving farms during this period

short and long run returns to agricultural r d in south africa or will the real rate of return please stand up abstract this paper briefly presents the results of a total factor productivity tfp study of south african commercial agriculture for 1947 1997 and illustrates some potential pitfalls in rate of return to research ror calculations the lag between r d and tfp is analyzed and found to be only 9 years with a pronounced negative skew reflecting the adaptive focus of the south african system the two stage approach gives a massive ror of 170 the predetermined lag parameters are then used in modeling the knowledge stock to refine the estimates of the ror from short and long run dual profit functions in the short run with the capital inputs treated as fixed the ror is a more reasonable 44 in the long run with adjustment of the capital stocks it rises to 113 which would reflect the fact that new technology is embodied in the capital items however the long run model raises a new problem since capital stock adjustment takes 11 years 2 years longer than the lag between r d and tfp if this is assumed to be the correct lag the ror falls to 58 a best estimate the paper draws attention to the possible sensitivity of rate of return calculations to assumed lag structure particularly when the lag between changes in r d and tfp is skewed

shifting foundations of agricultural policy analysis welfare economics when risk markets are incomplete the neat alignment of resources output and prices specified by the perfect competition model is far from duplicated in free markets and the equally neat alignment assumed under the constraints of a program is not experienced when programs are in effect in particular areas under empirically determined supply curves are unlikely to represent opportunity costs the basic theory is invaluable in providing a conceptual orientation for the analysis of programs but the assumptions implicit in the literal use of simple forms of it for policy conclusions are breathtakingly heroic

a test of the underinvestment myopia and commodity bias hypotheses for u s agricultural research abstract analysts of agricultural research policy in the united states of america have claimed that the over all level of public investment in agricultural research is less than what would be socially optimal that the present composition of public research investment is excessively myopic in that too little basic research is performed relative to the level of applied research and that the allocation of research resources among commodities is inconsistent with economic efficiency a non linear optimal growth model of the u s economy was developed to analyse these propositions strong support was found for the claim that the overall level of investment has been inadequate no support was found for the contention that basic research has been relatively underfunded compared to applied research weak support was found for the view that crop research has suffered from more acute underfunding than has livestock research

on the costs of food price fluctuations in low income countries abstract conventional welfare measures of the costs of food price fluctuations in low income countries are extended to allow for both economic growth and food security effects the analysis reveals that growth and food security effects may dominate more conventional welfare costs of food price fluctuations although estimating the empirical magnitude of the effects is hampered by the lack of consensus on the extent to which food price fluctuations actually reduce economic growth and food security even if the welfare costs of food price fluctuations are high there are many challenges to the design and successful implementation of price stabilization schemes

the peasant in economic modernization peasants self employed tillers of soil whose farm production is based mainly on family labor as an integral part of household activities have been for thousands of years and still are today the majority of mankind their production mode represents a sharp contrast with the large internal organization of modern corporate firms characterized by a hierarchy of employees an apparently archaic style of peasant farming relative to modern corporate activities has often led to a presumption that the peasantry is a remnant of feudal society and bound to disappear as modernization proceeds as a corollary it has been argued that consolidation of peasants into large farm enterprises is desirable or necessary for promoting agricultural productivity growth consistent with modern economic development this perspective has been waning recently partly because of the disastrous experience of collective farming in former socialist economies as well as repeated failures in the attempt to develop large farms as both state and private enterprises in developing economies eicher and baker johnson and ruttan concurrently the high potential of peasants to achieve productivity growth has been recognized with the successful diffusion of modern high yielding varieties and related inputs the so called green revolution in asia yet pessimism about peasant agriculture persists and tends to distort the development strategy of the third world toward favoring large farm estates binswanger deininger and feder eicher and rukuni more ambiguous is the role of peasants in industrial and commercial development the traditional view from karl marx to w arthur

residential appliances direct load control in real time using cooperative game the relatively fixed residential day ahead real time electricity price reflects insufficient information of the market so the response of residential energy management system ems to the real time pricing rtp is not complete and therefore retailers are exposed to the risk of price fluctuation in balance market direct load control dlc in cooperative game is proposed in this paper a cooperative game union comprised of some users and a retailer is established to minimize the union costs the union provides an opportunity to access the balance market indirectly for residents and to reduce risks and costs for the retailer in addition shapley value which embodies the fairness is used in union profits allocation the method that avoids bidding for residential users simplifies the thresholds of residents to participate in market furthermore the dlc union contributes to imbalance self management for the retailer which helps him avoid paying for the regulation cost involved in the deviation between the total quantity bought at markets and the actual consumption the achievement of union s goal respects the constraints set by users the method that alleviates the disturbance of dlc to residents meets the dual goals of being both fully responsive and non disruptive

farm mechanization scale economies and polarization the japanese experience abstract whether economies of scale are the major factor underlying concentration of agricultural land in large farms has long been under debate the case study of japanese agriculture for the past three decades confirmed the tendency observed from international comparison that increasing returns in agricultural production emerge when economic development reaches a stage at which real wage rates begin to rise sharply it was found that the effect of scale economies was highly significant even though the intersectoral labor market effect was greater on land concentration the results imply that developing countries need not worry about mechanization to cause more unequal land distribution if factor markets are not unduly distorted

how much do decoupled payments affect production an instrumental variable approach with panel data how much decoupled payments such as direct payments in the u s affect agricultural production remains an open empirical question with implications for policy using data from multiple years of the census of agriculture we exploit a provision of the 2002 farm act that departed from previous policy by making oilseeds eligible for direct payments thus increasing payments to areas that historically produced more oilseeds our instrumental variable estimates in contrast to ols estimates suggest that changes in payments over the period 2002 to 2007 had little effect on aggregate production at the zip code level copyright 2012 oxford university press

information and economic analysis a perspective ten years ago i delivered a paper before this group with the title information and economic analysis i chose the title deliberately i did not call the subject on which i was speaking the economics of information because to do so would have been to suggest that my topic like the economics of agriculture or the economics of industry or the economics of labour represented another branch of specialisation within economics i wanted to suggest that informational considerations were in fact central to the analysis of a wide variety of phenomena that they constituted a central part of the foundations of economic analysis at the time though economists had long paid lip service to the importance of information there was little formal literature the last decade has seen a burgeoning of the literature it has become to the late 7o s and early 8o s what growth theory was to the early 6o s and it has been greeted with some of the same scepticism there seems to be a myriad ofspecial cases and few general principles the little examples are often contrasted unfavourably with the generality of general equilibrium theory what have we learned have diminishing returns set in are there fruitful directions for future research and if so what are they these are the questions which i wish to address here the work of the past decade has made i think a fundamental and lasting contribution to economic analysis the contributions have been both negative and positive we have learned that much of what we believed before is of only limited validity that the traditional competitive equilibrium analysis though having the superficial appearance of generality in terms of superscripts and subscripts is indeed not very general the theory is not robust to slight alterations in the informational assumptions it is but a special and not very plausible example among the possible set of informational assumptions which can be employed to characterise an economy at the same time the theory has been able to provide insights into phenomena about which the traditional model had nothing to say or which seemed inconsistent or inexplicable within the competitive paradigm it has provided some of the micro foundations for macro economics it has provided the basis of a new theory of the firm of a new new welfare economics and of a theory of economic organisation including a comparison of economic

entry and exit on the competitive fringe microeconomic theories of industry evolution reserve key roles for the entry and exit of firms competitive models of industry supply often assume that individual firms have ushaped long run average cost curves in consequence an industry s output adjustment in movement from one long run equilibrium to another is entirely accomplished through the entry and exit of firms rather than through changes in long run equilibrium output of individual firms in empirical applications the speed of movement to new equilibrium levels of output and price measured by the time it takes for profits to return to competitive levels following a demand shock clearly depends upon the ease of entry and exit however the simplest competitive models have a clear theoretical weakness abundant evidence against u shaped long run average cost curves precludes a simple identification of entry with industry expansion and exit with industry contraction expansion of industry supply can be met either by incumbents or entrants and we have little empirical evidence of the division entry conditions are also a staple of oligopoly and monopoly models potential entry constrains the pricing options open to industry leaders and actual entry of new firms and new products erodes at varying rates the market power of incumbent firms if actual entry responds rapidly to profit opportunities then the persistent exercise of monopoly power will be rare however analyses of monopoly and oligopoly models typically approach entry indirectly by inferring that persistent profit differentials reflect high barriers to entry there are few direct tests of the effects of such barriers on actual entry despite their importance very few empirical studies of entry and exit exist severe data limitations restrict both the number of studies and the scope of extant analyses the research reported in this paper provides measures of entry and exit in 46 food manufacturing industries during the 1976 82 period measures of incidence the number of firms as well as extent the size of firms are provided the analysis also distinguishes between diversified firms and specialist producers entry and exit rates vary considerably across industries and the paper reports the results of statistical analyses that account for industry differences in entry and exit rates by specialist firms

the rate of return to public sector agricultural r d in the uk 1965 80 1989 the rate of return to public sector agricultural r d in the uk 1965 80 applied economics vol 21 no 8 pp 1063 1086

frictionless technology diffusion the case of tractors many new technologies display long adoption lags and this is often interpreted as evidence of frictions inconsistent with the standard neoclassical model we study the diffusion of the tractor in american agriculture between 1910 and 1960 a well known case of slow diffusion and show that the speed of adoption was consistent with the predictions of a simple neoclassical growth model the reason for the slow rate of diffusion was that tractor quality kept improving over this period and more importantly that only when wages increased did it become relatively unprofitable to operate the alternative laborintensive horse technology jel l62 n51 n52 n71 n72 o33 q11 understanding the determinants of the rate at which new technologies are created and adopted is a critical element in the analysis of growth even though modeling equilibrium technology creation can be somewhat challenging for standard economic theory understanding technology adoption should not be specifically once the technology is available the adoption decision is equivalent to picking a point on the appropriate isoquant dynamic considerations make this calculation more complicated but they still leave it in the realm of the neoclassical model a simple minded application of the theory of the firm suggests that profitable innovations should be adopted instantaneously or with some delay depending on various forms of cost of adjustment the evidence on the adoption of new technologies seems to contradict this prediction jovanovic and lach 1997 report that for a group of 21 innovations it takes 15 years for its diffusion to go from 10 percent to 90 percent the 10 90 lag they also cite the results of a study by grubler 1991 covering 265 innovations who finds that for most diffusion processes the 10 90 lag is between 15 and 30 years 1

incomplete markets and government agriculture policy this paper investigates the welfare effects of several stereotypical agricultural policies in an economy with production risk and incomplete contingent claim markets the policies analyzed include target price deficiency payment programs the brannan plan production controls the cochrane plan and land set asides when there is no trading in contingent claims and when economic parameters take on values characteristic of staple food markets the paper finds that ajoint brannan plan production control program is often welfare increasing however production controls on their own tend to be welfare decreasing in addition land set asides are generally welfare reducing even in the presence of a brannan plan these results are derived analytically in a simple equilibrium model they are illustrated with a numerical example which demonstrates that welfare benefits from typical agricultural policy interventions can be large

the intercountry agricultural production function and productivity differences among countries abstract the sources of differences in labor productivity in agriculture between developed countries dc s and less developed countries ldc s are identified by estimating an aggregate agricultural production function based on cross county data for 1960 1970 and 1980 the production function was found to be stable over the entire period agriculture in the dc s was characterized by increasing returns and in the ldc s by constant returns to scale the results imply that unfavorable man land ratios do not represent an immediate barrier to rapid agricultural development in the low income ldc s but they may create a serious agricultural adjustment problem as those countries advance into the middle income range

the implications of the us renewable fuel standard programme for farm structure abstractwe investigate the impact of the 2005 renewable fuel standard rfs on farm structure particularly farm size we rely on the salience of a new ethanol plant in a farmers local neighbourhood to identify the impact of the rfs mandate on these spatially advantaged farms to control for the nonrandom selection of ethanol production facilities we utilize a propensity score matching estimator and to remove impact of farm level or market shifting unobservables resulting from shifts in commodity prices we employ a difference in difference dd matching approach we estimate the treatment effect of an ethanol production facility on farm size prior to the rfs mandate and after the rfs programme the effect of the rfs policy on farm size is obtained as the difference between these two dd matching estimators overall our results suggest that the rfs programme raised the probability of farm size increase by roughly 12 18 on average for farms located within a 30 mile radius of new ethanol plants in add

on the optimal level of a small country s strategic petroleum reserve abstract decisions relating to a country s strategic petroleum reserve must take into account the level of risk inherent in its petroleum imports the cost resulting from any shortfall in the import level the cost of storage and finally the effects of stockpiling transactions on the sensitive spot oil markets of course small countries need not take into account their effect on the global market a fact that drastically simplifies their decision problem we present such a simple decision model for a small country s petroleum reserve which in addition to the above factors take into account the uncertainty of the country s refining capacity a complete analytical treatment is feasible for this model and a specific numerical example is presented for the case of greece

is farming a constant cost industry measurement of cost size relationships for farming has long been an important area of research in agricultural economics much of this research has had a farm management and production economics orientation and firm industry interdependencies have often been ignored research results stemming from such an orientation should be interpreted with care when used for policy purposes pecuniary externalities may be of greater importance than indicated by research to this time a suggestion is made for treating induced technical change as comparable to a pecuniary externality questions are raised on both theoretical and empirical grounds whether farming in the united states should be considered a constant cost industry for policy purposes

simple rule for management of thermal loads with real time prices abstract the integration of renewable energies and therefore the generation of a clean and sustainable energy is a current demand by society the use of real time pricing offers advantages for integrating renewable resources into the electrical grid this is because users enhance the flexibility of their own energy demand thanks to planning loads with accumulation capacity the aim of the present work is to equip users to manage their energy demands with simple planning systems for this a simple rule is proposed to help a greater number of users to gain the capacity to manage their demand the new rule based on a geometric progression of real time pricing of energy and intrinsic characteristics of the load provides valuable information for the user to decide whether or not to accumulate energy in the load this rule provides good results by the simulation of a simple thermal load

biased technological change and factor demand in postwar japanese agriculture 1958 84 abstract the objective of this study is to gain a better understanding of factor substitutions in postwar japanese agriculture by shedding special light on biased technological change such biased technological change is first measured then associated with the movements of factor prices and then tested for the hicksian induced innovation hypothesis in addition a decomposition analysis is carried out in order to quantitatively examine the importance of the biased effects for determining changes in factor cost shares and factor proportions during the 1958 84 period a slightly modified stevenson greene model of the translog cost function is employed this model has at least two important advantages over ordinary translog cost functions first it incorporates time into the model such that all coefficients of the ordinary translog cost function may change over time this is more realistic than the ordinary translog cost function which assumes that all coefficients are constant over the period of estimation another attractive feature is that it enables us to test the induced innovation hypothesis directly the model is applied to the 1958 84 period by making use of farm level data the results show that technological change was biased towards saving labor and other inputs and using machinery intermediate inputs and land this biased technological change is found to be in principle consistent with the induced innovation hypothesis furthermore it is shown through decomposition analyses that the biased technological change had significant impacts on changes in factor cost shares and factor proportions during these years the empirical results of this study imply that technological change in japanese agriculture has in general proceeded in a manner consistent with factor endowments conditions since the late 1950s an implication of this study for agriculture in less developed countries is that agricultural policies seeking development through technological progress should be carried out so as to take advantage of peculiar factor endowments conditions in the individual countries

an econometric analysis of the effects of human capital on size and growth among dairy farms the analysis of size distributions of firms has long been important both inside and outside of agriculture the study of farm size has focused on economies of scale optimal efficient size technical change descriptions of distributions and informal considerations of policy outside of farming the emphasis has been on the relationships between size and growth in both literatures there has been some awareness of the role of the firm operator in firm size and growth in this paper we examine herd size and herd growth for a large sample of southern dairy farms our emphasis is on the relationship of human capital of the operator to the crosssectional size and growth patterns other related work considers size growth issues in more detail sumner and leiby our research relates to several literatures that have evolved along distinct paths these include the analysis of the size distribution of farms see stanton the role of human capital in agriculture and earnings distributions and the analysis of the size distribution of business firms

embargo threats and the management of emergency reserves this paper develops a model of a country that can import oil in normal times but is subject to random trade disruptions to mitigate the effects of these disruptions some of the imported oil is stockpiled there are two kinds of uncertainty involved the date at which an embargo will be imposed is not known in advance and given that an embargo has been imposed the date at which it will end is uncertain optimal behavior is analyzed by means of dynamic programming 13 references

structural and productivity change in us agriculture 1950 1982 this paper tests whether structural change in us agriculture is an important channel to tfp growth and evaluates the relative impact of i public research and education policies ii private r d and market forces and iii government farm programs on structural change we specify a structural econometric model fit it to us state aggregate data 1953 1982 and use the associated reduced form model to perform counter factual policy simulations the findings include structural change is a channel to tfp growth in both crop and livestock subsector i e specialization size and part time farming do impact tfp holding other variables constant public r d and education have been at least as important as private r d and market forces for changing livestock specialization farm size and farmers off farm work participation over the study period but private r d and market forces have been relatively more important for crop specialization changes in farm commodity programs had little impact on farm structure over these study period overall we conclude that if public r d and education policies had been unchanged at their 1950 values over 1950 1982 major structural changes in us agriculture would have occurred anyway the forces of private r d and market forces were at work including a decline in the price of machinery services and agricultural chemicals relative to the farm wage

pricing and depletion of an exhaustible resource when there is anticipation of trade disruption this paper considers pricing and depletion of an exhaustible nonrenewable resource in an economy wherein domestic consumption is provided for by supplementing extraction from the economy s own resource stock with imports the future supply of which is not assured the socially optimal response to threat of trade disruption is a more conservationist depletion program for the domestic resource stock than would be called for if import supplies were assured to persist competitive domestic firms adopt the socially optimal conversationist program however firms anticipating domestic market power after the disruption of import supplies are revealed to overextract the domestic resource stock 33 references 2 figures

the impact of farmland price changes on farm size and financial structure a modified vickers model is used to show that farmland capital gains provide incentive to increase farm acreage and debt use farmland capital losses have the opposite effect the model indicates that part of the current financial vulnerability of the u s farm sector can be traced to management decisions made in response to the farmland capital gains of the 1970s the effects are not purely tax driven though taxes can affect the magnitude of incentives the vickers model is modified to allow a finite horizon taxes and the recognition of unrealized capital gain or loss

rural population growth 1950 1990 the roles of human capital industry structure and government policy human capital raises rural incomes but this effect is swamped by higher returns to human capital in urban markets this leads to brain drain from rural areas populations grow more rapidly in rural counties that have a diversified employment base farm population grows faster or declines more slowly in counties with relatively high farm income and nonfarm populations grow faster in counties with relatively high nonfarm income however higher farm incomes lead to slower nonfarm population growth and vice versa rural county government services financed by local taxes or debt have neutral or negative effects on population growth rural population in the united states increased 53 between 1900 and 1990 this increase is concentrated in the nonfarm rural sector where population has grown to three times its turn of the century level nevertheless there exists a concern that rural areas are threatened by population declines that will gradually erode the ability of communities to provide public services necessary for their citizens eventually the fear is that these communities will become too small to be selfsustaining and will disappear one might ask why these concerns exist in the face of slowly rising rural populations one reason is that the overall rural population increase masks a huge migration of labor off the farm the rural farm population has fallen to one tenth its 1900 level if a strong farm economy is necessary to sustain rural communities then the farm population decline is a threat to the future viability of rural communities on the other hand off farm employment opportunities are increasingly important to the

toward a theory of agricultural insurance in this paper we develop a theory of crop insurance we start by reaffirming the risk spreading role of competitive crop insurance markets it is argued however that once the problems of imperfect information are recognized a competitive crop insurance market may not exist at all two candidates present themselves first is market insurance with the public sector as a source of costly information gathering and dissemination and second is the direct provision of crop insurance by the public sector we focus on the latter and develop a model of public insurance as a decentralized plan where the farmer determines factor utilization taking the insurance contract as given in turn the insurance agency taking factor utilization as determined by the farmer chooses the optimal contract so as to maximize the value of aggregate output in the economy

the welfare effects of intermittent interruptions of trade consider the problem of a buyer purchasing a costlessly storable good at a fixed price under threat of interruption of trade suppose there are two distinct and exhaustive regimes either one can buy as much as desired at the going price or one can purchase nothing at all and must rely on accumulated stocks for consumption the market moves randomly over time between these two states which will be referred to here as on and off respectively given the stochastic process governing the evolution of market regimes the price faced when the market is on and the intertemporal preferences of the buyer one may inquire as to the optimal acquisition rate for storage and consumption when the market is on and the optimal usage of accumulated stocks when the market is off solutions for these problems could then be used to ascertain the degree to which buyer and seller welfare is affected by the probabilistic curtailment of trading opportunities and the willingness to pay of the buyer for greater security of supply as well the possibility of inferring from purchase and storage behavior the buyer s perception of the likelihood and duration of trade interruptions may be explored this paper presents a general solution to this problem for stationary environments that is assuming intertemporal preferences to be representable by the expected present value of a uniformly discounted time independent flow utility function and taking the stochastic process governing change in regimes to be stationary markov optimal behavior and associated expected discounted utility are derived the method employed adapts to this context the dynamic programming arguments of my 1981 paper and is similar in structure to that employed in the analysis of resource depletion with technological uncertainty in partha dasgupta and geoffrey heal 1974 and dasgupta and joseph stiglitz 1981 there are many industrial markets in which these considerations are important recent events in the world oil market have stimulated much interest in the study of strategic mineral reserves see for example thomas teisberg 1981 in markets where demand fluctuates randomly and prices are inflexible for example the industrial market for natural gas the possibility of stochastic rationing has important implications for firm behavior see dennis carleton 1978 the prospect of strike upstream or lag in the delivery of goods on order has significant implications for inventory holdings in some industries the framework of this paper may even be adapted to the study of labor supply and savings behavior over the life cycle for a worker facing intermittent and uncertain unemployment

convergence in u s productivity growth for agriculture implications of interstate research spillovers for funding agricultural research state crop livestock and aggregate agricultural total factor productivity tfp data 1950 82 are examined for evidence of convergence to a single tfp level convergence or to a steady state rate of growth or conditional convergence our empirical results do not support convergence but do support convergence the rate of convergence is variable and depends on research and development r d spillins from other states private r d and farmers schooling the finding of strong positive interstate spillover effects implies that independent state planning of agricultural research is inefficient and cooperation across states boundaries including establishment of new political jurisdictions for financing public agricultural research can enhance efficiency

food price policy the rationale for government intervention abstract policy makers in the most successful developing countries have not accepted either of the two major schools of thought on food price policy the neo classical school favours free trade to maximize efficiency of resource allocation the structuralist school favours interventions to satisfy goals for income distribution especially in the rapidly growing rice based economies of asia policy makers have been more concerned about stability of domestic prices than their level relative to world prices this concern traditionally dismissed by economists as purely political is justified on economic grounds because of improved macroeconomic and dynamic efficiency from stable food prices the paper identifies both the benefits from food price stability and the costs of achieving it

new perspectives on farm size and productivity abstract the farm size and productivity debate has been limited by the focus on land or labor productivity generally showing respective productivity advantages to smaller or larger sized farms our purpose is to provide new perspectives on the debate by bringing together evidence from a set of novel case studies in both rich and poor countries common to them are the adoption of total factor productivity tfp as the comparative performance measure and the reliance on panels of farm micro data the present article presents a synthesis of findings from five case studies in i malawi tanzania and uganda ii bangladesh iii brazil iv australia and v the united states the preponderance of evidence from these studies suggests that there is no single economically optimal agrarian structure rather it appears to evolve with the stage of economic development certain farm sizes face relative productivity advantages such as small farms in africa but with economic and market growth that smallholder advantage will likely attenuate moving toward constant and eventually increasing returns to size yet importantly small farms may be quite dynamic and need not be a drag on agricultural growth until perhaps well into the development process

short run returns to scale farm size and economic efficiency this paper analyzes the effects of returns to scale farm size technical allocative and scale inefficiencies on the profitability of utah dairy farms it derives the conditions necessary to compare the profitability of farms within and between different size classifications as small medium and large some comparative static results regarding increases in input prices and a decrease or withdrawal of price support on profitability of small medium and large farms are presented copyright 1993 by mit press