stock price reactions as surrogates for the net cash flow effects of corporate policy decisions abstract this paper adopts a rational market structure to examine the link between the cash flow effects of management policy decisions and the resulting stock price reactions the focus is on testing cross sectional associations between cash flow effects and the underlying characteristics of affected firms we find that it is not possible to infer the sign of association between the stock price reaction and any characteristics of the firm that are observable before management announces its decision our methodological suggestions involve exploiting either a priori assumptions or sample information about the probability distribution of unobservable decision variables underlying the management decision process

accounting method choice opportunistic behavior efficient contracting and information perspectives abstract three alternative but not mutually exclusive perspectives on accounting method choice are contrasted the opportunistic behavior efficient contracting and information perspectives much of the empirical work on accounting method choice is based on the opportunistic behavior perspective the malmquist and main and smith papers are attempts to view accounting method choice as a means of improving the monitoring capabilities of contracts which rely on accounting numbers the papers serve as useful vehicles for illustrating the difficulties of delineating a set of maintained assumptions that result in hypotheses about how accounting method choice affects the monitoring characteristics of contracts and distinguishing between hypotheses based on the three perspectives on accounting method choice

evidence on the choice of inventory accounting methods lifo versus fifo in this paper we describe various systematic properties of lifo and fifo firms accounting numbers included are assessments of these properties for firms reported annual numbers and for their as if counterparts obtained by estimating what lifo fifo firms would have reported had they used the fifo lifo inventory method instead our purpose in conducting these assessments is to provide additional evidence on tax and nontax explanations of firms choices of inventory accounting methods in the next subsection we elaborate on these two classes and suggest that the nontax explanations may have attracted adherents partly because existing empirical evidence is not entirely consistent with the tax explanation of lifo fifo choices of inventory accounting methods although data limitations prevent us from performing direct tests of these alternative explanations our empirical results

economic implications of intergenerational equity for biodiversity conservation the rights of future generations to enjoy sustainable development have been formally recognised internationally this has important implications for the economic analysis of biological diversity which as an integral attribute of natural capital is of critical importance to both current and future generations the dominant economic paradigm involves no explicit recognition of the rights of future generations thus it can give rise to outcomes of dubious intergenerational equity merit rawls contractarian theory attributes intrinsic value to rights and is considered here in relation to the intergenerational distribution of natural resources some problems of theoretical and practical character for the implementation of the rawlsian approach are noted an incremental and adaptive learning process in the use and distribution of natural resources is recommended in order to ensure the well being of future generations three degrees of intergenerational equity are derived i extensive ii intermediate and iii minimal in terms of biodiversity conservation this implies an ethical base for countries to at least fund the establishment of protected area pa systems therefore economic analysis should not be used at this conceptual level to decide if pa systems should or should not be established this question would necessarily be answered in the affirmative on the basis of the interests of future generations at the practical level of deciding which specific ecosystems should make up particular pa systems economic analysis should a contribute to a holistic approach to the identification of the areas to be protected b investigate the most cost effective way of carrying out the initiative c assess of the intragenerational equity outcomes and d consider the institutional features relevant to the successful implementation of the conservation initiative

stock price reactions to lifo adoptions the association between excess returns and lifo tax savings although long a topic of accounting research little is known about the motives for or effects of voluntary changes in accounting techniques among the motives which have been suggested are attempts by managers to smooth reported earnings gordon 1964 copeland 1968 cushing 1969 white 1972 and ronen and sadan 1981 to influence man agement compensation to reduce regulatory or political costs watts and zimmerman 1978 and to avoid bond covenant restrictions holthausen 1981 while some of these motives may be consistent with a market value rule they often fail to provide unambiguous accounting change predictions e g which accounting changes result in lower regulatory costs moreover empirical verification has been constrained by the unobservability of the variables to which the managers allegedly respond the stock price reaction which should be expected for a given account ing change depends not only on its implications for the valuation of securities but also on the extent to which the implications are already known or anticipated by investors 3 ultimately our ability to detect these stock price effects if any depends on the power of our tests previous studies of the effects of accounting changes have generally not found significant stock price reactions archibald 1972 ball 1972 kaplan and roll 1972 harrison 1977 and holthausen 1981 4 for the most part these studies dealt with accounting changes which had no direct cash flow effects in contrast changes in inventory costing methods especially those involving the last in first out lifo cost flow assumption can generate potentially large changes in a firm s cash flows due to their impact on taxable earnings these cash flow effects provide not only a motive for lifo changes5 which is consistent with the market value rule but also implications for associated stock price effects if investors react to lifo s cash flow implications rather than to its effects on reported earnings then positive stock price adjustments should be associated with lifo adjustments however the evidence from previous studies of stock price reactions to lifo adoptions is inconclusive ball 1972 sunder 1973 1975 abdel khalik and mckeown 1978 brown 1980 and ricks 1982 while several factors may account for these results see section 2 it can be noted that the previous studies have considered only a dichotomous variable whether or not a firm has adopted lifo yet because the cash flow consequences of a lifo adoption decision depend on a number of firm specific factors this approach ignores potentially large differences among firms in the economic consequences of lifo adoptions most firms switching to lifo now reveal in their financial statement disclosures the tax savings which have been realized this study uses these disclosures to examine the association between unsystematic re turns and the magnitudes of first year lifo tax savings for all nyse firms which adopted or extended their use of lifo during the period 1972 80 subject to data availability 6 the research design employs within group comparisons based on cumulative monthly unsystematic excess returns with appropriate controls for unexpected earnings per formance 7 this design avoids several methodological weaknesses inherent in the previous studies and allows more definitive tests of hypotheses relating investor reactions to the income and cash flow effects of lifo adoptions as reported more fully below results based on lifo adoptions made in 1974 are consistent with a positive association between cumulative excess stock returns and the magnitudes of lifo tax savings 8 the results also provide evidence that changes in systematic risk may accompany lifo adoptions however contrary to previous studies most of the sample firms exhibit downward rather than upward changes in systematic risk section 2 reviews the previous studies of stock price reactions to lifo adoptions and suggests explanations for their results section 3 discusses the alternative approach employed in this study while section 4 describes the test methodologies employed the data and data selection procedures are described in section 5 the results and a discussion are presented in section 6 section 7 offers some conclusions

fundamental analysis future earnings and stock prices in this paper we investigate how detailed financial statement data fundamental signals enter the decisions of market participants by examining whether current changes in the signals are informative about subsequent earnings changes our approach is consistent with the view expressed by penman 1992 and others that predicting accounting earnings as opposed to explaining security returns should be the central task of fundamental analysis studying the links between fundamental signals and future earnings changes allows us to test directly the validity of the economic intuition that underlies the original construction of the signals an alternative and less direct approach followed by lev and thiagarajan 1993 henceforth lt is based on an examination of the relations between the fundamental signals and contemporaneous returns

truthfulness in accounting how to discriminate accounting manipulators from non manipulators accountants preparing information are in a position to manipulate the view of economic reality presented in such information to interested parties these manipulations can be regarded as morally reprehensible because they are not fair to users they involve in an unjust exercise of power and they tend to weaken the authority of accounting regulators this paper develops a model for detecting earnings manipulators using financial statements ratios in a sample of spanish listed companies our results provide evidence that accounting data can be extremely useful in detecting manipulators this approach can be used by a large category of users of accounting information among which we can cite stock exchange supervisors or investing professionals

market based empirical research in accounting a review interpretation and extension a decade and a half of the most concerted and ambitious research effort in accounting history is evaluated here it is the search into the relationship between publicly disclosed accounting information and the consequences of the use of this information by the major group of usersequity investors as such consequences are reflected in characteristics of common stocks traded in major exchanges this research effort known as market based accounting research mbar obtained its impetus from major developments in finance theory during the late 1950s and early 1960s these were the portfolio selection theory and its offspring the capital asset pricing model capm and the concept of informationally efficient capital markets ecm subsequent developments in information economics agency theory and optimal incentive signaling models were quickly incorporated into mbar while the impetus to this line of research came from other disciplines accounting was not only a beneficiary but also to a modest extent a benefactor mbar is relevant to the study of capital market efficiency the capm information economics and regulation this contribution distinguishes mbar from most accounting areas whose contributions to other disciplines are negligible in

executive incentives and the horizon problem an empirical investigation abstract this paper investigates the hypothesis that ceos in their final years of office manage discretionary investment expenditures to improve short term earnings performance we examine the behavior of r d expenditures for a sample of firms in industries that have significant ongoing r d activities the results suggest that ceos spend less on r d during their final years in office however we find the reductions in r d expenditures are mitigated through ceo stock ownership there is no evidence that the reduced r d expenditures are associated with either poor firm performance or reductions in investment expenditures that are capitalized for accounting purposes

research in accounting for income taxes abstract this paper comprehensively reviews the accounting for income taxes afit literature we begin by identifying four distinctive aspects of afit and briefly covering the rules surrounding afit we then review the existing studies in detail and offer suggestions for future research we emphasize the research questions that have been addressed most of which relate to whether the tax accounts are used to manage earnings and whether the tax accounts are priced by equity market participants we also highlight areas that have not received much research attention and that warrant future analysis

a bayesian approach to model changes in volatility in the mexican stock exchange index we model the changes in volatility in the mexican stock exchange index using a bayesian approach we study the time series with a wide set of models characterized by a markov switching heterogeneit

taking stock a critical assessment of recent research on inventories empirical and theoretical aspects of inventory behavior became hot topics in the 1950s and early 1960s no one seemed to notice the tension that was developing between the emerging macroeconomic and microeconomic views of inventories macroeconomists routinely thought of inventories as a destabilizing factor yet the prevailing micro theory viewed inventories as a stabilizing factor it was a fascinating question that was barely explored instead somewhat inexplicably interest in inventories dried up as if inventories were of minor economic significance and little intrinsic interest by the early 1980s then economists once again knew something they had known in the 1950s that inventory investment is of first order importance in business cycles but they were also beginning to realize that the standard production smoothing buffer stock model of inventories was in deep trouble this paper focuses on developments since that realization

the worth of a possum valuing species with the contingent valuation method the focus of this paper is on methods of assessing the value peopleplace on the conservation of species for use in policy making of principalinterest is the relatively new methodology of contingent valuation whichis a method for asking people directly about their preferences the paperpresents an application of the contingent valuation method to theconservation of an endangered species in the state of victoria australia the results emphasise the importance of careful survey design implementation and analysis as well as the precise definition of theenvironmental good being valued consequently the contingent valuationmethod does provide information relevant to decision making processesbased on monetary economic considerations thus in orthodox economicterms it makes sense to conserve species but there are other moral andethical grounds for conserving species as well

failure of stock prices to discipline managers in a rational expectations economy in this paper we show that even a strongly efficient stock market is by itself insufficient to discipline managers who may hold incorrect beliefs about investors behavior and their decision rules instead of disciplining the managers the stock market may generate prices that reinforce these incorrect beliefs when this happens the disciplining of managers must be accomplished through other mechanisms such as through markets for managerial labor mergers and takeovers the financial press and education these alternative mechanisms may produce slower disciplinary reactions than the stock market several important classes of accounting phenomena seem consistent with a failure of the stock market to discipline managers promptly we present in detail how the apparent failure of managers to make cashflow maximizing lifo fifo choices in a timely fashion is consistent with this theory our approach is also applicable to other financial reporting conundrums in which adverse managerial and stock market reactions were predicted in response to financial accounting standard no 2 accounting for research and development outlays standard no

the value relevance of taxes international evidence on the proxy for profitability role of tax surprise abstract despite evidence that tax surprise is incrementally value relevant the literature has done little to broaden the investigation beyond the united states or examine circumstances that affect informativeness after extending to the international setting i examine the impact of tax enforcement i report strong results of greater value relevance when tax enforcement is high and that the value relevance of tax surprise is mostly contained within its interaction with tax enforcement these findings highlight the importance of tax enforcement in determining the information content of tax surprise and suggest that extant and future discussions should be broadened to include it

analyst forecast errors and stock price behavior near the earnings announcement dates of lifo adopters between june 1974 and may 1975 over 400 firms on the new york and american stock exchanges adopted the last in first out lifo inventory costing method responding to the first round of double digit inflation since wwii these firms were able to assign their newer and thus higher inventory costs to units sold thereby realizing substantial tax savings 1 however ricks 1982 found that stock returns near the earnings disclosure dates of 1974 lifo adopters were negative and significantly lower than returns near the earnings disclosure dates of firms not using lifo given that firms adopting lifo in 1974 were voluntarily switching to an accounting method providing often significant tax savings it is not obvious why investors would have reacted negatively nor is it likely that investors were unaware of many of the firms lifo adoption decisions stevenson 1987 found that at least two thirds of the firms in ricks sample had disclosed their lifo adoptions prior to their earnings disclo sure dates if investors were reacting to the effects of the lifo adoptions why did they react negatively given the increased cash flows and prior disclosures if investors were not reacting to the effects of the lifo adoptions what caused the significant negative excess returns near the earnings disclosure dates of firms adopting lifo in 1974 this study presents evidence suggesting that the negative excess re turns observed by ricks 1982 were associated with and possibly due to analysts systematic overestimates of earnings of firms adopting lifo in 1974 we are aware of no previous study documenting systematic errors in analysts earnings forecasts conditional on a voluntary account ing method change as a first step we assess the generality of ricks finding by examining excess returns near the preliminary earnings disclosure dates hereafter prelim dates of all new york nyse and american stock exchange amex firms adopting lifo between 1973 and 1980 the results confirm negative excess returns around the prelim dates of firms adopt ing lifo in 1974 there is little evidence of significant excess returns negative or positive near the prelim dates of firms adopting lifo in other years to explain the negative returns of the 1974 adopters we examine the association between excess returns and earnings forecast errors we find that standard poor s analysts systematically overestimated the earn ings of these firms analyst forecast errors are found to be significantly correlated with both the excess returns around the prelim dates and the earnings reductions due to the lifo adoptions finally we offer two possible explanations for the negative excess returns and the positive correlations between excess returns analyst earnings forecast errors and earnings effects of the 1974 lifo adoptions first the limited availability of information regarding the likely earnings effects of the 1974 lifo adoptions combined with the relative novelty of this accounting change may have led analysts and investors to underestimate the lifo earnings effects and may have made it difficult for the market to discern immediately the cause of the resulting negative forecast errors evidence consistent with this limited information hypothesis is found in the predictions of value line analysts of lifo earnings effects the actual mean earnings per share effect of the lifo adoptions 947 was 62 higher than the average value line estimate 584 however tests for the stock price reversals which would be implied by the limited information explanation are inconclusive a second possible explanation is that the magnitudes of lifo earnings effects were caused by and or provided implications regarding another factor which was important in valuing the firms yet difficult for analysts and investors to predict inflation is suggested as the likely candidate since lifo tax savings are a function of the rate at which inventory costs are increasing firms experiencing higher rates of inflation would have greater incentives to adopt lifo 4 thus the self selected sample of firms which adopted lifo in 1974 may include firms most affected by that year s surge of inflation since the extent to which inventory costs have increased is reflected in the magnitudes of the earnings effects of lifo adoptions the negative analyst forecast errors and the positive correlation between these forecast errors and the earnings effects of lifo adoptions could be explained by analyst underestimates of the rates of inflation experienced by these firms evidence consistent with this inflation hypothesis is found in the fact that managers of firms adopting lifo underestimated the impact of inflation on their own firms in addition negative excess returns and earnings overestimates are observed for a sample of established lifo users consistent with analysts and investors being surprised by the impact of inflation on these firms as well however aggregate tests based on cross industry correlations between changes in wholesale prices and lifo related variables are generally inconclusive

dynamic analysis of inventory accounting choice this study presents a dynamic model of inventory accounting choice and thereby permits a systematic consideration of that choice over time i also restrict the dynamic model sufficiently to generate a static crosssectional model similar to those used in previous studies e g lee and hsieh 1985 and caster and simon 1986 estimation of the dynamic model identifies correlates of the change in inventory methods empirical estimates of the cross sectional model extend previous research on firm characteristics related to the use of different inventory accounting methods consistent with theories of optimal inventory accounting choice i find that factor prices play an important role in the accounting choice size change in gross national product and to a small extent industry membership also play a role in the transition assuming that managers act to maximize firm values i develop an econometric threshold model in which a dichotomous inventory method choice is determined by an underlying continuous variable a change occurs when the continuous variable crosses a threshold the model is simplified by assuming that changes of accounting state follow a first

fundamental information analysis fundamental analysis is aimed at determining the value of corporate securities by a careful examination of key value drivers such as earnings risk growth and competitive position in the context of such analysis we identify below a set of financial variables fundamentals claimed by analysts to be useful in security valuation and examine these claims by estimating the incremental value relevance of these variables over earnings our findings support the incremental value relevance of most of the identified fundamentals in fact for the 1980s the fundamentals add approximately 70 on average to the explanatory power of earnings with respect to excess returns we also show that the returns fundamentals relation is considerably strengthened when it is conditioned on macroeconomic variables thereby demonstrating the importance of a contextual capital market analysis for example several fundamentals that appear only weakly value relevant or even irrelevant in the unconditional analysis exhibit strong association with returns under specific economic conditions e g the accounts receivable and the provision for doubtful receivables signals during high inflation from a general examination of the role of fundamentals in security valuation we turn to the related issues of earnings persistence growth and the earnings response coefficient we hypothesize that the funda

venture capital investment cycles the impact of public markets abstract it is well documented that the venture capital industry is highly volatile and that much of this volatility is associated with shifting valuations and activity in public equity markets this paper examines how changes in public market signals affected venture capital investing between 1975 and 1998 we find that venture capitalists with the most industry experience increase their investments the most when public market signals become more favorable their reaction to an increase is greater than the reaction of venture capital organizations with relatively little industry experience and those with considerable experience but in other industries the increase in investment rates does not affect the success of these transactions adversely to a significant extent these findings are consistent with the view that venture capitalists rationally respond to attractive investment opportunities signaled by public market shifts

the information content of earnings and prices a simultaneous equations approach abstract the price earnings relation can be characterized as a system of simultaneous equations earnings and prices can behave as if they are both endogenously determined because they are jointly affected by information that is difficult to specify explicitly specification tests provide evidence that both earnings changes and price changes are endogenous the price and earnings coefficients increase from ols to joint estimation and under a restrictive set of assumptions provide increasingly similar estimates of the permanent component of earnings the evidence is consistent with the contention that a portion of the single equation bias can be mitigated via joint estimation

the market s response to the 1974 lifo adoptions in this paper i report the results of a study of stock price reactions to lifo adoptions in 1974 and 1975 these two years were characterized by high levels of inflation and wide swings in stock prices and more than 400 firms on the new york and american stock exchanges switched to lifo previous studies see below provide conflicting results of the market s reaction to lifo adoptions these studies exhibit certain research design and small sample limitations which prevent one from resolving the issue of how the market reacts to lifo switches using a better matched pair design and a larger sample i conclude that lifo adopters suffered negative abnormal return performance during the period surrounding their annual earnings announcements while several possible explanations for this result are discussed additional research is needed to provide further insight into the nature of the market reaction to lifo adoption

earnings volatility and earnings predictability abstract survey evidence indicates widely held managerial beliefs that earnings volatility is negatively related to earnings predictability in addition existing research suggests that earnings volatility is determined by economic and accounting factors and both of these factors reduce earnings predictability we find that the consideration of earnings volatility brings substantial improvements in the prediction of both short and long term earnings conditioning on volatility information also allows one to identify systematic errors in analyst forecasts which implies that analysts do not fully understand the implications of earnings volatility for earnings predictability

business cycle turning points a new coincident index and tests of duration dependence based on a dynamic factor model with regime switching the synthesis of the dynamic factor model of stock and watson 1989 and the regime switching model of hamilton 1989 proposed by diebold and rudebusch 1996 potentially encompasses both features of the business cycle identified by burns and mitchell 1946 1 comovement among economic variables through the cycle and 2 nonlinearity in its evolution however maximum likelihood estimation has required approximation recent advances in multimove gibbs sampling methodology open the way to approximation free inference in such non gaussian nonlinear models this paper estimates the model for u s data and attempts to address three questions are both features of the business cycle empirically relevant might the implied new index of coincident indicators be a useful one in practice do the resulting estimates of regime switches show evidence of duration dependence the answers to all three would appear to be yes

automated earnings forecasts beat analysts or combine and conquer prior studies attribute analysts forecast superiority over time series forecasting models to their access to a large set of firm industry and macroeconomic information an information advantage which they use to update their forecasts on a daily weekly or monthly basis a timing advantage this study leverages recently developed mixed data sampling midas regression methods to synthesize a broad spectrum of high frequency data to construct forecasts of firm level earnings we compare the accuracy of these forecasts to those of analysts at short horizons of one quarter or less we find that our midas forecasts are more accurate and have forecast errors that are smaller than analysts when forecast dispersion is high and when the firm size is smaller in addition we find that combining our midas forecasts with analysts forecasts systematically outperforms analysts alone which indicates that our midas models provide information orthogonal to analysts our results provide preliminary support for th

the investment opportunity set and accounting procedure choice abstract this paper provides evidence on the cross sectional relation between firms investment opportunities their debt and compensation contracts their size and financial leverage and their accounting procedure choices this evidence is important because previous studies hypothesize that the link between firms investment opportunities and their accounting choices helps explain extant results on the size debt equity and bonus plan hypotheses however while i find that firms investment opportunities do affect the nature of their contracts i also find that the traditional explanations for accounting choice are important after controlling for the effects of the investment opportunity set

firm size effects and the association between excess returns and lifo tax savings biddle and lindahl 1982 henceforth b l used cross sectional regressions to analyze the market reaction for 311 nyse firms that adopted lifo in the period 1973 80 fifteen month excess returns were regressed on an unexpected earnings variable and a measure of the tax savings from lifo adoption the coefficient on the tax savings variable was positive and highly significant leading to the conclusion that the market reacted positively to the cash flow implications of lifo adoption this paper reexamines the b l analysis by enlarging the sample and addressing several methodological concerns the results which suggest b l s findings are attributable to the confounding effects of firm size are consistent with any of three views 1 the lack of a positive market reaction to lifo adoption 2 the inadequacy of adoption year tax savings as a proxy for the net benefit of lifo adoption or 3 the confounding of the market reaction to lifo adoption with the reaction to other events because returns are cumulated over such a long time period section 2 describes the data collection procedures section 3 presents the results and section 4 offers some conclusions

toward consilience between biology and economics the contribution of ecological economics abstract during its ten year history ecological economics has made a real difference in the way economists look at the natural world and in the way biologists look at the economy in this survey article we examine the contributions to the journal in terms of e o wilson s concept of consilience that is his argument that the methods and assumptions of any field of study should be consistent with the known and accepted facts in other disciplines in particular we examine the contributions of ecological economics to reconciling the economic theory of the consumer and producer with biophysical reality

a conceptual framework for the stock price effects of lifo tax benefits this paper presents a conceptual evaluation of the stock price effects of lifo tax savings in periods of inflation adopting lifo can create cash flow benefits by deferring tax payments whether lifo tax savings are valued by investors has been extensively investigated through examinations of the stock price reaction to initial announcements of lifo adoptions 1 while evidence of positive abnormal returns at announcements of lifo adoptions proportional to the projected nominal lifo tax savings would be viewed as consistent with investors recognizing the expected tax benefits of lifo overall empirical evidence available to date does not indicate that lifo adoption related abnormal returns are positively associated with the size of potential nominal lifo tax savings 2

real investment implications of employee stock option exercises this paper examines a real cost of awarding employee stock options based on the observation that managers are extremely concerned about earnings per share dilution in equity related compensation we predict and find that firms experiencing significant employee stock option eso exercises shift resources away from real investments towards the repurchase of their own stocks we further find weak evidence of a decline in subsequent firm performance as measured by return on assets for several years following the cut in discretionary investments as a result of stock option exercises though this result is sensitive to the metric used to measure performance collectively our findings indicate that eso exercises potentially impose a real cost on the firm in terms of foregone investment opportunities

empirical research on accounting choice abstract we review research from the 1990s that examines the determinants and consequences of accounting choice structuring our analysis around the three types of market imperfections that influence managers choices agency costs information asymmetries and externalities affecting non contracting parties we conclude that research in the 1990s made limited progress in expanding our understanding of accounting choice because of limitations in research design and a focus on replication rather than extension of current knowledge we discuss opportunities for future research recommending the exploration of the economic implications of accounting choice by addressing the three different reasons why accounting matters

valuing environmental functions tropical wetlands recent studies have suggested that tropical wetland systems may have a crucial economic role to play in development the following paper provides an overview of these benefits using the general framework of cost benefit analysis as the methodological approach to assessing wetland values an analysis of trade offs between conserving or converting tropical wetlands demonstrates that taking into account the opportunity cost of wetland loss leads to a lower level of conversion than would otherwise be the case finally the paper discusses the extensions and limitations of the production function approach as applied to valuing nonmarketed wetland benefits

internet downturn finding valuation factors in spring 2000 abstract during spring 2000 the internet stock index declined 45 using a sample of internet firms this paper investigates whether this decline was associated with new disclosures such as earnings analyst forecast revisions and web traffic measures or to a reassessment by investors of pre existing information we find only modest evidence that the decline was associated with new disclosures however returns and post decline stock prices are significantly explained by 1999 annual report data when earnings are decomposed into gross profit and various expenses traditional financial information contributes significantly more in explaining the cross sectional returns and price levels than non financial information

development of ecological economics in australia and new zealand abstract this paper reviews the development of ecological economics in australia and new zealand since its beginnings in the late 1970s a historical account is presented that focuses particularly on the activities of the australia new zealand society for ecological economics and key ecological economics research activities achievements of ecological economics in australia and new zealand are assessed using a range of quantitative and qualitative data the main areas of expertise developed by australian and new zealand ecological economists were found to be theoretical foundations and visions for ecological economics biodiversity and resilience input output analysis heterodox valuation approaches analysis of economy environment interactions sustainability indicators sustainable agriculture fisheries and oceans and energy thermodynamics both countries are ranked at the top or near the top of the world rankings in terms of per capita isee membership and publication rates in ecological economics a defining feature of ecological economics in australia and new zealand has also been its practical and problem solving focus and the level of end user engagement the paper concludes by discussing the challenges that face the future development of ecological economics in australia and new zealand

resolving lifo uncertainty a theoretical and empirical reexamination of 1974 75 lifo adoptions and nonadoptions this study reexamines the lifo adoption decision by focusing on what can be inferred about the sophistication of managers and investors decision making through analyzing the effect on stock prices of the resolution of publicly disclosed uncertainty about the lifo adoption nonadoption decision i establish and test implications of three models of the lifo adoption nonadoption decision the traditional tax benefit model an extension of kang s 1988 real value model and a functional fixation model each model yields distinct predictions about the mean excess stock return when uncertainty about the lifo adoption nonadoption decision is resolved and about the cross sectional relations between individual excess stock returns and several explanatory

empirical tax research in accounting this paper traces the development of archival microeconomic based empirical income tax research in accounting over the last 15 years the paper details three major areas of research i the coordination of tax and non tax factors ii the effects of taxes on asset prices and iii the taxation of multijurisdictional international and interstate commerce methodological concerns of particular interest to this field also are discussed the paper concludes with a discussion of possible directions for future research r 2001 elsevier science b v all rights reserved jel classification m41 h25 k34 g32 f23

new evidence on lifo adoptions the effects of more precise event dates results of recent research support conclusions of an increase a decrease or no change in share values for firms switching to lifo biddle and lindahl 1982 ricks 1982 and brown 1980 this study supports the view that on average firms which adopt lifo experience an increase in share values tests are based on more nearly accurate dates when the change to lifo was announced the results suggest that a search for voluntary accounting change disclosure dates can be productive if some previously unexploited sources are examined a cross sectional regression similar to the approach taken by for example biddle and lindahl 1982 is used to explain cumulative residual stock returns at announcements of the change in accounting method variables representing quarterly unexpected earnings annual unexpected earnings systematic risk and firm size are used to control for extraneous effects the independent variable of interest is tax savings

1974 lifo excess stock return and analyst forecast error anomalies revisited in this paper i reexamine three lifo anomalies reported by ricks 1982 and biddle and ricks 1988 with the aim of investigating the degree of analyst and investor sophistication in responding to fiscal 1974 lifo adoptions biddle and ricks henceforth br s first anomaly is that their sample of 1974 lifo adopters realized a reliably negative mean excess stock return at their annual earnings announcement br view this as anomalous because 1974 lifo adopters switched voluntarily and almost always obtained substantial tax savings second br find even firms who publicly disclosed lifo adoptions in advance of their annual earnings announcements earned negative returns at the annual earnings announcement date taken at face value this result implies an opportunity

an econometric characterization of business cycle dynamics with factor structure and regime switching a dynamic factor model with regime switching is proposed as an empirical characterization of business cycles the approach integrates the idea of comovements among macroeconomic variables and asymmetries of business cycle expansions and contractions the first is captured with an unobservable dynamic factor and the second by allowing the factor to switch regimes the model is estimated by maximizing its likelihood function and the empirical results indicate that the combination of these two features leads to a successful representation of the data relative to extant literature this holds for within and out of sample and for both revised and real time data copyright 1998 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

the effect of accounting procedure changes on ceos cash salary and bonus compensation abstract this paper examines the effect of accounting procedure changes on cash salary and bonus compensation to ceos we estimate whether there is an adjustment to the statistical relation between compensation and corporate earnings following changes that lower earnings fifo to lifo inventory valuation and that raise earnings accelerated to straight line depreciation the results indicate that 1 subsequent to these changes salary and bonus payments are based on reported earnings rather than earnings under the original accounting method and 2 the potential compensation effect of the changes is small compared to the effect of economy or industry wide changes in compensation

bond rating agencies and stock analysts who knows what when both bond rating agencies and stock analysts evaluate publicly traded companies and com municate their opinions to investors comparing the timeliness of each we find that granger causality flows both ways while most bond downgrades are preceded by declines in actual and forecast earnings both actual earnings and forecasts of future earnings tend to fall following downgrades although part of this post downgrade forecast revision can be attributed to negative news regarding actual earnings most appears to be reaction to the downgrade itself we find little change in actual earnings following upgrades analysts however tend to increase their forecasts of future earnings

some comments on risk investor risk is a complicated concept in practice and is not well captured by measures of volatility as is well understood by uncertainty theory rather than asking statisticians to attempt to measure risk it may be better to listen to decision theorists but their suggestions are not very practical diversification is clearly helpful in reducing risk but the risk level of one portfolio cannot be measured without knowing the risks of other major portfolios a meta analysis can be used to compare alternative volatility measures in terms of their forecasting utility copyright 2002 john wiley sons ltd

impact of new agricultural technology on the instability of foodgrain production and yield data analysis for bangladesh and its districts abstract recent studies claim that the green revolution has increased foodgrain production and yield variability using bangladeshi national and regional data this paper provides intertemporal and cross sectional evidence to the contrary intertemporal data indicate that on the whole the relative variability of foodgrain production and yield has fallen with the adoption of green revolution technologies cross sectional regional data further support this view using various proxies for technological change the results indicate that regions with higher rates of adoption of green revolution technologies have lower relative variability of foodgrain production and yield

were there regime switches in u s monetary policy working paper 2004 14 june 2004 abstract a multivariate model identifying monetary policy and allowing for simultaneity and regime switching in coefficients and variances is confronted with u s data since 1959 the best fit is with a model that allows time variation in structural disturbance variances only among models that also allow for changes in equation coefficients the best fit is for a model that allows coefficients to change only in the monetary policy rule that model allows switching among three main regimes and one rarely and briefly occurring regime the three main regimes correspond roughly to periods when most observers believe that monetary policy actually differed and the differences in policy behavior are substantively interesting though statistically ill determined the estimates imply monetary targeting was central in the early 80s but was also important sporadically in the 70s the changes in regime were essential neither to the rise in inflation in the 70s nor to its decline in the 80s jel classification e52 e47 c53 key words counterfactuals lucas critique policy rule monetary targeting simultaneity volatility model comparison i the debate over monetary policy change in an influential paper clarida gali and gertler 2000 cgg presented evidence that us monetary policy changed between the 1970 s and the 1980 s indeed that in the 70 s it was drastically worse they found that the policy rule apparently followed in the 70 s was one that when embedded in most stochastic general equilibrium models would imply non uniqueness of the equilibrium and hence vulnerability of the economy to sunspot fluctuations of arbitrarily large size their estimated policy rule for the later period on the other hand eliminated this indeterminacy these results are a possible explanation of the volatile and rising inflation of the 70 s and of its subsequent decline the cgg analysis has two important weaknesses one is that it fails to account for stochastic volatility us macroeconomic variables and particularly the federal funds rate have gone through periods of tranquility and of agitation with forecast error variances varying greatly from period to period ignoring such variation does not lead to inconsistent estimates of model parameters when the forecasting equations themselves are constant but it strongly biases toward a finding of changed parameters tests of the stability of the forecasting equations the other weakness is that the cgg analysis rests on powerful and implausible identifying assumptions they require that we accept that the response of the monetary authority to expected future inflation and output does not depend on the recent history of inflation money growth or output it is hard to understand why this should be so especially in the 70 s when monetarism was a prominent theme in policy debates congress was requiring reports from the fed of projected time paths of monetary aggregates and financial markets were reacting sensitively to weekly money supply numbers the requirement for existence and uniqueness of equilibrium in dynamic models is that the monetary policy rule show a more than unit response of interest rates to the sum of the logs of all nominal variables that appear on the right hand side of the reaction function if we force a particular measure of expected future inflation to proxy for all the nominal variables that actually appear independently in the reaction function we are bound to get distorted conclusions on the one hand because expected future inflation will be a noisy measure of the full set of nominal influences on policy we might get downward bias in our estimates from the usual errorsin variables effect on the other hand to the extent that expected future inflation like most expected future values shows less variation than current nominal variables we could find a mistaken scaling up of coefficients

when does the bond price reaction to earnings announcements predict future stock returns abstract in this paper i show that the bond price reaction to earnings announcements has predictive power for post announcement stock returns and that this predictive ability is driven by the bonds of non investment grade firms i find that bonds predictive ability is more pronounced in firms that have a lower level of institutional shareholder ownership and whose bonds are more liquid this paper enhances our understanding of the relation between the stock and bond markets and complements the literature which documents whether and under what circumstances various accounting based measures and financial statement components predict post announcement stock returns

the detection of earnings manipulation presented are a profile of a sample of earnings manipulators their distinguishing characteristics and a suggested model for detecting manipulation the model s variables are designed to capture either the financial statement distortions that can result from manipulation or preconditions that might prompt companies to engage in such activity the results suggest a systematic relationship between the probability of manipulation and some financial statement variables this evidence is consistent with the usefulness of accounting data in detecting manipulation and assessing the reliability of reported earnings the model identifies approximately half of the companies involved in earnings manipulation prior to public discovery because companies that are discovered manipulating earnings see their stocks plummet in value the model can be a useful screening device for investment professionals the screening results however require determination of whether the distortions in the financial statement numbers r

economics and the debate about preservation of species crop varieties and genetic diversity the paper reviews and outlines criteria that have been suggested for determining whether or not to save a species for extinction priorities as set out in the world conservation strategy cost benefit analysis and the safe minimum standard approach are given particular consideration the different criteria also are compared assuming that there is an absolute upper constraint on the amount of resources available for the conservation of species there is some discussion of whether the reduction in available crop varieties is adding to or reducing the instability of crop yields it is claimed that relative variability appears to be falling but there may be an increasing risk of non sustainability the importance of the burden of proof in the conservation versus non conservation debate is stressed and it is suggested that recent economic thought has swung more towards the view that the burden of proof should rest on those seeking to carry out activities which may extinguish a species

stock price effects of the allowance of lifo for tax purposes abstract i investigate stock price behavior associated with the allowance of lifo for tax purposes the analysis is structured as an event study of the revenue acts of 1938 and 1939 the results indicate a positive net market reaction to legislative events leading to lifo s incorporation into the us tax code for the sample firms having the largest estimated lifo tax benefits i conclude the market revised its probabilities that firms most likely to benefit would avail themselves of the opportunity to use lifo and defer taxes on inventory profits

the ability of earnings to predict future operating cash flows has been increasing not decreasing we investigate the relationship between earnings and one year ahead operating cash flows from 1973 to 2000 although the extant research indicates a weakening relationship between contemporaneous earnings and stock prices over time we find that the relationship between current earnings and future operating cash flows has increased over time this result holds for numerous divisions of our sample out of sample predictions of operating cash flows generally show increasing forecast accuracy over time increasing accounting conservatism appears to play a role in this phenomenon