computer use and earnings in britain this paper estimates various models of the effect of computer use on earnings using recent ncds data the cross section estimates are large and significant while the standard fixed effects estimates are small or insignificant the panel estimates change considerably once we allow the coefficients to differ across individuals conditional on assumptions about when individuals use computers conventional panel estimates may not identify the crucial parameters and alternative methods are needed we conclude that there was a substantial premium associated with computer use for some individuals in the uk

wages sorting on skill and the racial composition of jobs wages for black and white workers are substantially lower in occupations with a high density of black employees following standard controls such correlations can exist absent discrimination or as a result of discrimination in wage level equations partial correlations fall sharply after controlling for occupational skills longitudinal estimates accounting for worker heterogeneity indicate little wage change associated with changes in racial composition results support a quality sorting rather than discrimination explanation with racial density serving as an index of unmeasured skills discrimination reflected in racial wage gaps occurs within occupations or across occupations in a manner uncorrelated with racial composition

if not computers then what returns to computer use in the uk revisited in recent years much attention has been paid to the effect on wages of skill biased technology especially the use of computers although empirical studies have shown a positive relationship between computer use and earnings doubts have been cast on whether this is a causal relationship or merely represents unobserved other factors which are themselves positively linked to computer usage this study provides evidence that computers themselves raise wages although their impact on wages falls as other controls are included in the regression it still remains significant whilst the effect of another proxy for unobserved factors becomes insignificant furthermore improvements in computer use have an additional impact on earnings supporting the productivity interpretation

some empirical evidence on the effects of shocks to monetary policy on exchange rates this paper investigates the effects of shocks to u s monetary policy on exchange rates we consider three measures of these shocks orthogonalized shocks to the federal funds rate orthogonalized shocks to the ratio of nonborrowed to total reserves and changes in the romer and romer index of monetary policy in sharp contrast to the literature we find substantial evidence of a link between monetary policy and exchange rates specifically according to our results a contractionary shock to u s monetary policy leads to i persistent significant appreciations in u s nominal and real exchange rates and ii significant persistent deviations from uncovered interest rate parity in favor of u s interest rates

currency risk factors in a recursive multicountry economy we study a risk sharing model featuring multiple countries with recursive prefer ences defined over bundles of consumption goods whose supply is subject to both global and local short and long run shocks first we quantify the extent of con tagion and insurance possibilities as we vary the number of countries in the econ omy second we introduce persistent heterogeneous exposure to global long run news shocks and analyze the properties of several carry trade strategies in the context of our model lustig et al 2011 hml fx and della corte et al 2013 hml na the average excess returns of these strategies can be rationalized in a recursive risk sharing scheme with long run global shocks to output growth

the labour market in the new information economy the extension of information and communication technologies to economic activity is changing the labour market in important ways this article shows that computerization and use of the internet are associated with greater hours worked as well as higher wages that it occupations are rapidly increasing their share of employment that job search and recruitment are moving rapidly to the web with consequences for matching employers and employees and possibly most important of all that trade unions have begun to use the internet as a tool for servicing members and carrying their message to the public raising the possibility of a major change in the nature of the union movement

skill biased technological change and rising wage inequality some problems and puzzles the recent rise in wage inequality is usually attributed to skill biased technical change sbtc associated with new computer technologies we review the evidence for this hypothesis focusing on the implications of sbtc for overall wage inequality and for changes in wage differentials between groups a key problem for the sbtc hypothesis is that wage inequality stabilized in the 1990s despite continuing advances in computer technology sbtc also fails to explain the evolution of other dimensions of wage inequality including the gender and racial wage gaps and the age gradient in the return to education

returns to foreign languages of native workers in the european union most of the literature on returns to languages is concerned with immigrants the authors study which uses the european community household panel survey for the period 1994 2001 infers returns to non native languages by native workers in nine countries of the european union the study differs from other studies that deal with the same issue in three respects first instead of using a dummy for each language they use the ratio of the population not proficient in a given country s national language and compare the results with the more traditional approach using dummies second they correct for time independent measurement errors in self reporting and find that the resulting iv estimates are much larger than those obtained by ols they also suggest that there is little room for time persistent errors and heterogeneity and that therefore their estimates should suffer ostensibly little from unobserved ability biases finally they estimate iv quantile regressions to illustrate how returns to languages vary at different points of the distribution of earnings

currency premia and global imbalances we show that a global imbalance risk factor that captures the spread in countries external imbalances and their propensity to issue external liabilities in foreign currency explains the cross sectional variation in currency excess returns the economic intuition is simple net debtor countries offer a currency risk premium to compensate investors willing to finance negative external imbalances because their currencies depreciate in bad times this mechanism is consistent with exchange rate theory based on capital flows in imperfect financial markets we also find that the global imbalance factor is priced in cross sections of other major asset markets

evidence on new technologies and wage inequality in france using individual data from the french labour force survey and the complementary survey on working conditions for 1998 we analyse earnings inequalities along the wage distribution between workers using novel information and communication technologies ict at their job and those not using them we estimate quantile regressions with technological dummies and carry out a decomposition analysis both at the aggregate level and by occupations at the aggregate level most of the wage gap between both populations is explained by the divergence in their labour characteristics in jobs where ict are not very diffused the technological premium is larger than in jobs characterized by a large presence of novel technologies whereas in the former type of jobs the technological premium is mainly justified by a divergence in the labour market characteristics between ict users and nonusers in positions characterized by a wide presence of novel technologies the technological premium responds rather to a divergence in

which fundamentals drive exchange rates a cross sectional perspective standard present value models suggest that exchange rates are driven by expected future fundamentals implying that exchange rates contain information about future fundamentals we test this key empirical prediction of present value models in a sample of 35 currency pairs ranging from 1900 to 2009 employing a variety of tests we find that exchange rates have strong and significant predictive power for nominal fundamentals inflation money balances nominal gdp whereas predictability of real fundamentals and risk premia is much weaker and largely confined to the post bretton woods era overall we uncover ample evidence that future macro fundamentals drive current exchange rates

human capital versus sorting the effects of compulsory attendance laws under the educational sorting hypothesis a state compulsory school attendance law will increase the educational attainment of high ability workers who are not directly affected hy the law under the human capital hypothesis such laws affect only those individuals whose hehavior is directly constrained we find that compulsory attendance laws do increase enrollment rates in age groups they do not affect directly thus our results contradict the human capital hypothesis and are consistent with the sorting hypothesis i introduction the last decade has seen considerable debate between supporters of the human capital and sorting models of education the former assert that the effect of education on wages reflects increased productivity the latter maintain that it reflects at least in part correlation between education and unobserved ability workers use education to signal their ability while employers use education to screen workers despite the importance of the debate no fully convincing tests of the hypotheses have been developed in fact many members of the profession maintain at least privately that these hypotheses cannot be tested against each other and that the debate must therefore be relegated to the realm of ideology in this paper we show that the models can be tested against each other by examining the effects of state compulsory school attendance laws we show that under the human capital hypotheis such laws will affect the educational attainment only of those who in the absence of the law would have left school prior to the minimum school leaving age on the other hand under the sorting hypothesis the effects of the law will percolate through the system increasing educational attainment even among workers not directly constrained by the law our results are consistent with the predictions of the sorting model

can the mortensen pissarides model with productivity changes explain u s wage inequality this article examines whether the mortensen pissarides matching model with productivity changes can explain the time pattern of wage inequality the main finding is that the model produces counterfactual results the main source of failure seems to be the exogenous matching function and or the exogenous surplus share neither of which allows firms to use wage policies to direct workers searches

technology and the wage structure this article reports direct evidence on how technological change is related to changes in wage gaps by schooling experience and gender wage gaps by schooling increased the most in industries with rising r d intensity and accelerating growth in the capital labor ratio estimates of their relationship to high tech capital are inconclusive contrary to popular notions that technological change harms older workers wage growth of experienced workers is much greater in r d intensive industries than in industries with little r d activity the gender gap narrowed more in industries that most intensively used high tech capital in 1979

the carry trade and fundamentals nothing to fear but feer itself the carry trade is the investment strategy of going long in high yield target currencies and short in low yield funding currencies recently this nave trade has seen very high returns for long periods followed by large crash losses after large depreciations of the target currencies based on low sharpe ratios and negative skew these trades could appear unattractive even when diversied across many currencies but more sophisticated conditional trading strategies exhibit more favorable payos we apply novel within economics binary outcome classication tests to show that our directional trading forecasts are informa tive and out of sample loss function analysis to examine trading performance the critical conditioning variable we argue is the fundamental equilibrium exchange rate feer expected returns are lower all else equal when the target currency is overvalued like traders researchers should incorporate this information when evaluating trading strategies when we do so some questions are resolved negative skewness is purged and market volatility vix is uncorrelated with returns other puzzles remain the more sophisticated strategy has a very high sharpe ratio suggesting market ineciency

employment transitions and computer use of older workers in our work we study the role of information and communication technology ict skills and their utilization in the retirement decision we provide empirical evidence based on italian panel data in favour of the hypothesis that ceteris paribus better educated male employees with ict know how retire later such effect is stronger the longer the time horizon considered and its magnitude is remarkably larger than the one observed in us and germany in previous studies we also document that ict do not play a crucial role in the retirement decision of women our results are robust to the estimation strategy adopted

information in online labour markets online labour markets are virtual platforms that solve information problems to enable gains from trade in remote labour services they make employers and workers aware of each other and allow them to communicate contract and produce remotely recent research suggests however that organizing production to include remote work remains challenging because employers and workers in these markets continue to lack information that is less easily communicated employers appear unable to accurately anticipate the full costs and benefits to them of using the market prior to entry and continue to have difficulty evaluating worker applications even when experienced in these markets information is particularly incomplete when wage arbitrage opportunity is greatest

computer use and wages evidence from taiwan we find a significant positive relationship between computer use and wages using taiwan microdata controlling for endogeneity of computer use with simultaneous equations suggests that although ols estimates are biased upward workplace computer use increases productivity d 2003 elsevier b v all rights reserved

social contacts and occupational choice social contacts help workers to find jobs but those jobs need not be in the occupations where workers are most productive hence social contacts can generate mismatch between a worker s occupational choice and his comparative productive advantage thus economies with dense social networks can exhibit apparently low labor force quality and as a result low returns to firms investment and depressed aggregate productivity we employ us and european data for the 1990 s to test the key prediction that social contacts distort workers occupational choices in a direction that reduces their apparent productivity we find that the use of social contacts helps find jobs one to two months sooner but leads to individual wage discounts of 5 to 7 and produces negative externalities on aggregate productivity

offshoring tasks and the skill wage pattern the paper investigates the relationship between offshoring wages and the occupational task profile using rich individual level panel data our main results suggest that when only considering within industry changes in offshoring we identify a moderate wage reduction due to offshoring for low skilled workers though wage effects in relation to the task profile of occupations are not estimated with sufficient precision however when allowing for cross industry effects of offshoring i e allowing for labor mobility across industries negative wage effects of offshoring are quite substantial and depend strongly on the task profile of workers occupations a higher degree of interactivity and in particular non routine content effectively shields workers against the negative wage impact of offshoring

out of sample exchange rate predictability with taylor rule fundamentals abstract an extensive literature that studied the performance of empirical exchange rate models following meese and rogoff s meese r a rogoff k 1983a empirical exchange rate models of the seventies do they fit out of sample journal of international economics 14 3 24 seminal paper has not convincingly found evidence of out of sample exchange rate predictability this paper extends the conventional set of models of exchange rate determination by investigating predictability of models that incorporate taylor rule fundamentals we find evidence of short term predictability for 11 out of 12 currencies vis a vis the u s dollar over the post bretton woods float with the strongest evidence coming from specifications that incorporate heterogeneous coefficients and interest rate smoothing the evidence of predictability is much stronger with taylor rule models than with conventional interest rate purchasing power parity or monetary models

computers skills and wages computer technology is most prominently used by skilled high wage workers this suggests that computer use requires skills to take full advantage of the possibilities which are particularly present among relatively skilled workers this article develops a simple technology adoption model showing that the decision to adopt computer technology depends on i the tasks to be performed ii the level of skill or education and iii the level of wages applying this model to british data it is shown that the effect of wages and particular tasks on computer adoption is larger than the effect of skills on adoption the estimates suggest that in britain computer use is likely to be a matter of cost efficiency and not so much of workers skills

employer skill demands and labor market outcomes of blacks and women the author uses data from a 1992 94 survey of employers in four metropolitan areas to investigate the effects of skill demands as measured by hiring requirements and job tasks on the wages and employment of newly hired workers skill demands were generally associated with lower employment of blacks than whites and with higher employment of women than men most tasks and requirements had statistically significant positive effects on starting hourly wages together these effects help to account for some of the differences between the hourly wages of white and black men and for some of the trends over time in the relative wages and employment of race and gender groups

information technology and the changing workplace in canada firm level evidence recent advances in information and communication technology ict have had dramatic effects on both individual and workplace performance use of computers and the internet as general purpose technologies has spread rapidly across all sectors of the economy transforming business organization increasing competition and fostering innovation understanding the influence of ict on the dynamics of the workplace requires information on both demand and supply sides of the labor market but it is only recently that the study of both sides of the market has become feasible using linked employer employee data in this article we investigate the effects of new technology on firm productivity using the rich canadian workplace and employee survey for the period 1999 2003 we apply a mixed regression model which includes both firm and employee characteristics as well as their interactions with computer use our model allows us to control for unobserved heterogeneity at higher levels along many dimensions our findings indicate that computer use by employees has a positive and significant effect on the productivity of firms that the effect has not lost its momentum and that spillover effects are not significant moreover human capital enhances the effect of computer use on productivity but organizational changes do not interact with computer use in our sample period copyright 2011 the author 2011 published by oxford university press on behalf of associazione icc all rights reserved oxford university press

returning to the returns to computer use this paper re examines the returns to computer use using a new matched workplace employee data from canada we control for potential selection using instrumental variables results suggest that it is not merely the employee having a computer on his desk but rather having complementary computer skills that causes wages to increase this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

computerisation and wage dispersion an analytical reinterpretation the rich countries have recently seen a dramatic rise in income inequality all the more surprising because the long term trend had been toward equality this paper examines one of the leading explanations computerisation in the workplace i offer a theory of computers impact on white collar work which goes far toward explaining the timing form and locus of recent labour market changes the theory looks at the bureaucratic and organisational applications of computers that have been first largest and most influential they have two effects on firms demand for labour at different skill levels

levels of computer self efficacy computer use and earnings in china abstract levels of self efficacy in computer use were found to be positively related to computer use at work among a sample of workers in shanghai the simultaneous estimation of computer use and earnings indicated that an earnings premium for computer use accrues only to females not to males

what happens when agent t gets a computer the labor market impact of cost efficient computer adoption this paper offers a model of how computer technology has changed the labor market demonstrating that wage differentials between computer users and non users are consistent with computers first being introduced in high wage jobs following cost efficiency furthermore skill upgrading occurs following a reemphasis on non routine tasks after adoption the model also reveals that neither differences in computer skills nor complementary skills are needed to explain wage differentials between users and non users skill upgrading and the changing organization and intensity of work finally the predicted effects on the wage structure are consistent with empirical evidence

economic momentum and currency returns abstract past trends in fundamentals linked to economic activity and inflation predict currency returns we find that a trading strategy that goes long currencies with strong economic momentum and short currencies with weak economic momentum exhibits an annualized sharpe ratio of 0 70 and yields a significant alpha when controlling for standard carry momentum and value strategies the economic momentum strategy subsumes the alpha of carry trades suggesting that differences in past economic trends capture cross country differences in carry

local labor force education new business characteristics and firm performance it is often asserted that a highly educated workforce is vital to improving the competitive position of american businesses especially by boosting entrepreneurship to examine this contention we use population census data and a new panel data of startup firms to examine how the education and skill level of the local labor force are related to the creation and success of new businesses this paper studies relationship between education entrepreneurship and businesses outcomes and considers simultaneously both the education of the entrepreneur and of the workforce where the entrepreneurs operate their businesses consistent with this simultaneous focus our initial results indicate that more educated entrepreneurs tend to be located in metropolitan areas with more educated workforces moreover highly educated areas have above average entrepreneurship rates finally the level of education of entrepreneurs is strongly related to positive business outcomes especially for college graduates compared to those with less than a four year degree

general education vocational education and labor market outcomes over the life cycle policy proposals promoting vocational education focus on the school to work transition but with technological change gains in youth employment may be offset by less adaptability and diminished employment later in life to test for this tradeoff we employ a difference in differences approach that compares employment rates across different ages for people with general and vocational education using microdata for 11 countries from ials we find strong and robust support for such a tradeoff especially in countries emphasizing apprenticeship programs german microcensus data and austrian administrative data confirm the results for within occupational group analysis and for exogenous variation from plant closures respectively

do marital status and computer usage really change the wage structure this analysis uses several identification strategies and data sources to control for individual ability and determine the causal effect of marital status and computer usage on wages although data from the cps nlsy and a data set of identical twins show that there are large cross sectional effects of these variables new econometric specifications are applied to these data which indicate that marital status and computer usage are not important causal determinants of earnings even after adjustments are made for measurement error and within twin differences in ability

endogeneity computers language skills and wages among university graduates in vietnam one would expect that returns to supplementary skills in developing countries are considerably higher compared to those documented for developed countries as is the case with returns to schooling i derive estimates of returns to the use of computer and foreign language skills in vietnam after controlling for endogeneity using a binary instrument hypothesized to reflect reconstruction doi moi policies in vietnam i find that a the use of both computers and language skills is associated with very large earnings premiums b iv return estimates are as high as and sometimes higher than ols estimates however they should be interpreted in relation to the instrument used

technology and the labour market the assessment this article reviews the evidence on how technology will affect labour markets in advanced democracies over the next 10 15 years in addition to assessing evidence on the impact of technology on the aggregate number of jobs we take a wider view to consider how the digital revolution will affect the quality and composition of jobs how and where we work and whether labour is supplied as part of a larger firm or as a self employed micro entrepreneur this assessment further aims to situate the papers covered in this issue of the oxford review of policy within the broader literature

unemployment fluctuations and the predictability of currency returns abstract we investigate whether unemployment fluctuations generate predictability in the cross section of currency excess returns we find that currencies with lower growth in the unemployment rate appreciate while currencies with higher growth in the unemployment rate depreciate as a result an investment strategy that involves investing in the former and short selling of the latter produces positive and sizable excess returns asset pricing tests show that the predictability is not driven by exposure to traditional risk factors such as global equity risk global foreign exchange volatility risk and downside risk but is related instead to an idiosyncratic unemployment risk

the effects of human resource management on small firms productivity and employees wages this paper analyses whether employees and firms differently benefit from particular human resource hr practices the focus is on small firms that may be badly informed on the impact of hr practices on firm performance in this study on dutch pharmacies it is found that firms do not reward employees skills according to their contribution to firms productivity as 1 employees are over rewarded for their sector specific skills and under rewarded for the productivity enhancing effect of their computer skills and 2 employees work experience positively affects their wages but does not have real productivity effects moreover it is found that training employees in case of vacancy problems seems to be an adequate hr practice since it increases productivity without affecting the average wage level the opposite holds for offering higher wages to newly recruited employees furthermore we find that only the employees benefit from performance evaluation interviews whereas employing many employees by tem

an economic evaluation of empirical exchange rate models this paper provides a comprehensive evaluation of the short horizon predictive ability of economic fundamentals and forward premiums on monthly exchange rate returns in a framework that allows for volatility timing we implement bayesian methods for estimation and ranking of a set of empirical exchange rate models and construct combined forecasts based on bayesian model averaging more importantly we assess the economic value of the in sample and out of sample forecasting power of the empirical models and find two key results 1 a risk averse investor will pay a high performance fee to switch from a dynamic portfolio strategy based on the random walk model to one that conditions on the forward premium with stochastic volatility innovations and 2 strategies based on combined forecasts yield large economic gains over the random walk benchmark these two results are robust to reasonably high transaction costs

make money surfing the web the impact of internet use on the earnings of u s workers much research on the digital divide presumes that adults who do not use the internet are economically disadvantaged yet little research has tested this premise after discussing several mechanisms that might produce differences in earnings growth between workers who do and do not use the internet we use data from the current population survey to examine the impact of internet use on changes in earnings over 13 month intervals at the end of the internet boom our analyses reveal robustly significant positive associations between web use and earnings growth indicating that some skills and behaviors associated with internet use were rewarded by the labor market consistent with human capital theory current use at work had the strongest effect on earnings in contrast to economic theory which has led economists to focus exclusively on effects of contemporaneous workplace technology use workers who used the internet only at home also did better suggesting that users may have benefited from superior

does education raise productivity or just reflect it education has an important effect on wages but it not clear whether this is because education raises productivity or because education is simply a signal of ability we implement a number of existing tests for discriminating between these two explanations and find that they do not support the signalling hypothesis however we have severe reservations about these results and we propose an alternative test based on changes in education incentives caused by changes in the minimum school leaving age in the 1970s using this idea we find that uk data appear to strongly support the human capital explanation an important issue in the economics of education is that an individual s education has an effect on wages paid in the labour market for example blundell et al 2003 uses detailed education and subsequent earnings information for a cohort of male individuals born in 1958 to estimate that the returns to a uk degree typically of 3 year duration relative to graduating from high school at 18 with 2 a level qualifications a necessary but not sufficient condition for admission to university is a 24 wage premium human capital explanations pioneered by becker 1962 and schultz 1963 suggest that the correlation between education and wages is due to education enhancing productivity however earnings may rise in response to education not because of any effect on productivity but simply because education may act as a signal of productivity employers believing that education is correlated with productivity will screen workers for their education and pay higher wages to the more educated the employers beliefs will be confirmed by their experience if it is the case that high productivity individuals signal this by choosing high levels of education it will be optimal for individuals to behave in this way if the cost of acquiring education is less for high productivity individuals than it is for low productivity individuals thus under reasonable conditions the market will be characterised by a separating equilibrium where higher productivity individuals choose higher levels of education than lower productivity workers and earn correspondingly higher wages the theory is largely due to spence 1973 1979 and the subsequent empirical literature was reviewed by groot and oosterbeek 1994 riley 2001 provides an excellent modern survey chevalier harmon and walker are fellows of iza in bonn and are affiliated with the institute for the study of social change issc in dublin this paper is part of the issc policy evaluation programme chevalier and walker are also affiliated with the centre for the economics of education at the london school of economics lse the support of all of these bodies for facilitating our collaboration is acknowledged harmon is grateful to university college london for their hospitality during his nuffield foundation new career development fellowship in the social sciences comments from steve machin and three anonymous referees greatly improved the exposition of this paper we are also grateful to richard blundell and to seminar participants at the lse and the tinbergen institute in amsterdam for their comments and to vincent o sullivan for excellent research assistance the usual disclaimer applies

robots computers and the gender wage gap abstract we analyze the effects of two automation technologies industrial robots and computing equipment on the gender wage gap in us local labor markets between 1990 and 2015 we find distinct impact of robot and computer capital an increase in robots decreases male wage more than female wage whereas an increase in computers reduces female wage more than male wage according to our estimates one additional unit of robot per thousand workers reduces gender wage gap by 0 3 log points and by contrast an increase in computer capital by one million dollars per thousand workers increases gender wage gap by 4 1 log points

the personal computer and entrepreneurship in contrast to the large and rapidly growing literature on information technology it investments and firm productivity we know very little about the role of personal computers in business creation using matched data from the 19972001 computer and internet usage supplements to subsequent outgoing rotation group files from the current population survey cps i explore the relationship between computer ownership and entrepreneurship trends over the past two decades provide some evidence of a positive relationship between home computers and entrepreneurship rates but the evidence is not clear in contrast an analysis of the relationship between computer ownership and entrepreneurship at the individual level provides evidence that individuals who had access to a home computer are substantially more likely to become entrepreneurs over the following 1215 months probit and bivariate probit regressions also provide evidence of a strong positive relationship between computer ownership and entrepreneurship among women but only limited evidence for men further estimates from the cps indicate that entrepreneurs who had prior access to home computers create a large variety of types of businesses and not only those in the it industry

skill biased technological change and wage inequality evidence from a plant retooling1 one of the most popular explanations for the increased wage inequality that has occurred since the late 1970s is that technological change has resulted in a downward shift in the demand for low skill workers this pattern is also alleged to account for the growth in racial inequality in wages over the same period this article reports on a case study of the retooling of a food processing plant a unique longitudinal multimethod design reveals the nature of the technological change the changes in job requirements and the mechanisms by which the changes affect the wage distribution for hourly production workers this research finds that indeed the retooling resulted in greater wage dispersion and that the changes have also been associated with greater racial inequality in wages however contrary to the claims of advocates of the skill bias hypothesis organizational and human resources factors strongly mediated the impact of the changing technology absent these high road organizational choices th

the uncovered interest parity puzzle exchange rate forecasting and taylor rules abstract recent research has found that the taylor rule fundamentals have power to forecast changes in u s dollar exchange rates out of sample our work casts some doubt on that claim however we find strong evidence of a related in sample anomaly when we include u s inflation in the well known uncovered interest parity regression of the change in the exchange rate on the interest rate differential we find that the inflation variable is highly significant and the interest rate differential is not specifically high u s inflation in one month forecasts dollar appreciation in the subsequent month we introduce a model in which a taylor rule determines monetary policy but in which not only monetary shocks but also liquidity shocks drive nominal interest rates this model can potentially account for the empirical findings

home computer use and the development of human capital this paper uses a regression discontinuity design to estimate the effect of home computers on child and adolescent outcomes by exploiting a voucher program in romania our main results indicate that home computers have both positive and negative effects on the development of human capital children who won a voucher to purchase a computer had significantly lower school grades but show improved computer skills there is also some evidence that winning a voucher increased cognitive skills as measured by raven s progressive matrices we do not find much evidence for an effect on non cognitive outcomes parental rules regarding homework and computer use attenuate the effects of computer ownership suggesting that parental monitoring and supervision may be important mediating factors

opening the box information technology work practices and wages using 1994 95 survey data on customer service representatives in 303 u s bank branches the authors investigate the effects on wages of information technology it of work practices and of those two factors in combination offline high involvement practices measured by the presence of quality circles were related positively to wages as was more extensive use of it that supports sales efforts where it was used more extensively to automate routine processes wages were lower in branches that did not have high involvement work practices the effects are partially explained by higher education requirements and more extensive introductory training in higher wage jobs

the returns to computer use revisited have pencils changed the wage structure too are the large measured wage differentials for on the job computer use a true return to computer skills or do they just reflect that higher wage workers use computers on their jobs we examine this issue with three large cross sectional surveys from germany first we confirm that the estimated wage differential associated with computer use in germany is very similar to the u s differential second we also measure large differentials for on the job use of calculators telephones pens or pencils or for those who work while sitting down we argue that these findings cast some doubt on the literal interpretation of the computer use wage differential as reflecting true returns to computer use or skill

the screening hypothesis an application of the wiles test according to wiles 1974 the screening and human capital theories of the return to education may be discriminated between by determining whether qualified individuals earn more by working in areas where their skills are relevant than they earn in other areas failure to do so is presumed to constitute evidence against human capital theory this paper applies the wiles test to a census of recent economics and science graduates from australian universities only for male science graduates is any evidence found in favour of human capital theory

the diffusion of computers and the distribution of wages abstract when the costs are decreasing workers adopt technology at the point where the costs equal the increased productivity output per worker increases immediately while productivity benefits increase only gradually if costs continue to fall as a result workers in computer adopting labor market groups experience an immediate fall in wages due to increased supply on the other hand adopting workers experience wage increases with some delay this model explains why increased computer use does not immediately lead to higher wage inequality more specifically the results of the model are shown to be consistent with the question why within group wage inequality among skilled workers as a result of computer technology adoption in the united states increased in the 1970s while between group wage inequality and within group wage inequality among the unskilled did not start to increase until the 1980s the model also predicts that the more compressed german wage structure leads to a lagged diffusion of computer technology along with smaller changes in wage inequality our empirical analysis suggests that this is consistent with the actual developments in germany since the 1980s finally the theoretical predictions seem to be of the right magnitude to explain the empirical quantities observed in the data

the impact of advanced technology adoption on wage structures evidence from taiwan manufacturing firms we examine the impact of advanced technology adoption on wage and employment structures in taiwan using a survey of manufacturing firms that provides direct information on the use of advanced technologies we find that firms using more advanced technologies pay higher wages to both non production and production workers and employ higher fractions of non production workers controlling for the possible endogeneity of technology adoption suggests that the estimated impact of new technologies on wages is downward biased and that the effect on production workers wages may be minimal

returns from computer use a simple test on the productivity interpretation abstract this paper finds that returns from computer use do not vary with the intensity of computer use this is evidence against the productivity interpretation of these returns and supports the view that returns from computer use can be attributed to unobserved heterogeneity

offshoring the nature of tasks and occupational stability empirical evidence for germany using a large administrative data set of individual employment histories for germany this paper studies the relationship between offshoring and the individual risk of leaving the occupation moreover a rich data set on tasks performed in occupations is used to better characterise the sources of worker vulnerability both material and service offshoring are on average not associated with an increase in occupational outflow rates however this association depends on the nature of tasks performed in the occupation higher intensities of interactive and in particular non routine tasks are associated with a larger decrease or a smaller increase in the occupational hazard rate

emulation inequality and work hours was thorsten veblen right we investigate the manner in which a desire to emulate the rich influences individuals allocation of time between labour and leisure greater inequality inducing longer work hours as a result data on work hours in ten countries over the period 1963 98 show that greater inequality is indeed associated longer work hours these veblen effects are large and the estimates are robust using country fixed effects and other specifications because consumption inequality is a public bad a social welfare optimum cannot be implemented by a flat tax on consumption but may be accomplished by more complicated progressive consumption taxes at the close of the nineteenth century thorsten veblen proposed what he termed pecuniary emulation as the foundation of a theory of consumption spending he maintained is driven by relative status considerations that is by the desire to be a particular type of person as much as bythedesire to enjoytheconsumer goodsper se the joneses with whom one had to keep up were not the neighbours but the rich theirleveloflivingbecamethenever attainableobjectiveinaconsumptionarmsrace among the less well to do in the theory of the leisure class he wrote the motive is emulation the stimulus of an invidious comparison especially in any community in which class distinctions are quite vague all canons and reputability and decency and all standards of consumption are traced back by insensible gradations to the usages and thoughts of the highest social and pecuniary class the wealthy leisure class 1934 p 81 while valued by some economists as capturing common sense aspects of consumption as a form of status seeking veblen s view of social preferences was soon eclipsed by the simpler and more tractable neoclassical theory of the consumer relegated to the underworld of economics veblen s ideas have nonetheless resonated over the ensuing years in the writing of duesenberry 1949 leibenstein 1950 and galbraith 1958 at the middle of the past century and schor 1998