an economic theory of self control the concept of self control is incorporated in a theory of individual intertemporal choice by modeling the individual as an organization the individual at a point in time is assumed to be both a farsighted planner and a myopic doer the resulting conflict is seen to be fundamentally similar to the agency conflict between the owners and managers of a firm both individuals and firms use the same techniques to mitigate the problems which the conflicts create this paper stresses the implications of this agency model and discusses as applications the effect of pensions on saving saving and the timing of income flows and individual discount rates

growth forecasts belief manipulation and capital markets abstract we analyze how a benevolent privately informed government agency would optimally release information about the economy s growth rate when the agents hold heterogeneous beliefs we model two types of agent conforming and dissenting the former has a prior that is identical to that of the government agency whereas the latter has a prior that differs from that of the government agency we identify both informative and uninformative equilibria informative equilibria are equilibria in which the government agency s equilibrium signal leads to a revision of beliefs we demonstrate that the uninformative equilibria can in fact dominate the informative ones in terms of ex post social welfare

quality growth new evidence from japanese household level data abstract this article estimates quality engel curves for 52 durable goods used to measure quality upgrading in the japanese cpi between 1990 and 2004 the estimation shows that the unmeasured quality growth is averaging less than 0 1 annually

upward bias in the consumer price index under the zero inflation economy abstract this study estimates the demand system using japanese microdata and calculates the cost of living index coli in the recent zero inflation situation the consumer price index cpi can approximate the coli while there are upward biases in the cpi during the 1980s

a quantitative comparison of sticky price and sticky information models of price setting i estimate sticky price and sticky information models of price setting for the united states via maximum likelihood techniques reaching several conclusions first the sticky price model fits best and captures inflation dynamics as well as reduced form equations once hybrid behavior is allowed second the importance of hybrid behavior in sticky price models is potentially consistent with a role for some information imperfections such as sticky information as a complement to nominal price rigidities finally the favorable results herein for the hybrid sticky price model when evaluated by statistics that summarize the relative fit of different models is consistent with the existing literature that is both supportive and dismissive of such models as this literature has largely ignored fit in evaluating such models many previous studies have focused on ancillary issues such as the standard errors associated with certain parameters or granger causality tests that may not provide much information about sticky price models

financial complexity and trade what are the implications on trading activity if investors are not sophisticated enough to understand and evaluate trades that have a complex payoff structure can frictions generated by this type of financial complexity be so severe that they lead to a complete market freeze like that of the recent financial crisis starting from an allocation that is not pareto optimal we find that whether complexity impedes trade depends on how investors perceive risk and uncertainty for smooth convex preferences such as subjective expected utility complexity cannot halt trade even in the extreme case where each investor is so unsophisticated that he can only trade up to one arrow debreu security without being able to combine two or more in order to construct a complex trade however for non smooth preferences which allow for kinked indifference curves such as maxmin expected utility complexity can completely shut down trade

state infrastructure and productive performance recent research on productivity growth has focused on public infrastructure and its impact on economic growth and productivity the authors construct a model of firms technology and behavior taking advantage of the analytical framework provided in the cost function based applied production theory literature and apply it to state level data for u s manufacturing they find that infrastructure investment provides a significant return to manufacturing firms and augments productivity growth the net benefits of infrastructure investment may or may not be positive depending upon the social costs of infrastructure investment and the relative growth rates of output and infrastructure copyright 1996 by american economic association

productivity enhancing public investment and benefit taxation the case of factor augmenting public inputs government expenditure on public inputs such as human capital formation and public infrastructure can significantly affect productivity an interesting and highly relevant policy question is whether such expenditure should be financed according to the benefit taxation principle focusing on factor augmenting public inputs in this paper we derive the specification of the appropriate set of benefit taxes rather than fall on industries according to the degree to which the public input increases their productivities these taxes must take the form of differential taxes on factor incomes jel classification h21 h54 les investissements publics accroissant la productivite et l imposition des avantages le cas des intrants publics qui augmentent la productivite des facteurs de production les depenses gouvernementales en intrants publics comme la formation de capital humain ou les infrastructures publiques peuvent affecter de maniere significative la productivite une question interessante et pertinente de politique publique est de savoir si des telles depenses devraient etre financees a l aide d un impot sur les avantages ainsi derives mettant l accent sur les intrants publics qui augmentent la productivite des facteurs ce memoire definit la specification des impots appropries sur les avantages tires de l investissement public plutot que de retomber sur les industries selon le degre d accroissement de productivite qui s ensuit ces impots doivent prendre la forme de taxes differentielles sur les revenus des divers facteurs de production

infrastructure investment a review essay economists try not to be faddists but they often cannot help themselves while work on a topic should mirror the prospective importance of the topic that situation seems to occur with disappointing frequency instead the usual pattern is that some reasonably important topic will be totally ignored for the longest time then recognized and then the subject of a flurry of work all out of proportion to its likely long run importance nowhere has this speculative bubble of economic research been more clearly illustrated than with infrastructure investment macroeconomists havelong felt that the stock of public capital is an important factor input in the production of total output macroeconomists have known that u s productivity growth slowed dramatically in about 1973 and macroeconomists should have known that united states investment in public capital has been down since the late 1960s yet analysis of the u s productivity slowdown completely ignored infrastructure investment for the first fifteen years of this slowdown concentrating instead on energy prices social regulation the composition of the work force research and development different rates of obsolescence of the private capital stock and any number of other matters the public capital stock was hardly ever even mentioned as a potential factor in the productivity slowdown aschauer changed all that he wrote a series of papers 1989a 1989b 1989c that put these two movements together econometrically infrastructure investment turned down and aggregate productivity turned down slightly later both in the united states and in some other developed countries his work hit the magic button those who had worried about the productivity puzzle for fifteen years welcomed a new suspect those who were worried about low rates of u s national saving welcomed a new way to make their argument even more forcefully than with official figures on saving and investment which do not count infrastructure investment as investment political liberals and liberal politicians saw a way to rescue government spending and projects from the assaults of reaganism and even a way to avoid oth

a sparsity based model of bounded rationality this article defines and analyzes a sparse max operator which is a less than fully attentive and rational version of the traditional max operator the agent builds as economists do a simplified model of the world which is sparse considering only the variables of first order importance his stylized model and his resulting choices both derive from constrained optimization still the sparse max remains tractable to compute moreover the induced outcomes reflect basic psychological forces governing limited attention the sparse max yields a behavioral version of basic chapters of the microeconomics textbook consumer demand and competitive equilibrium i obtain a behavioral version of marshallian and hicksian demand arrow debreu competitive equilibrium the slutsky matrix the edgeworth box roy s identity and so on the slutsky matrix is no longer symmetric nonsalient prices are associated with anomalously small demand elasticities because the consumer exhibits nominal illusion in the edgeworth box the offer curve is a two dimensional surface rather than a one dimensional curve as a result different aggregate price levels correspond to materially distinct competitive equilibria in a similar spirit to a phillips curve the arrow debreu welfare theorems typically do not hold this framework provides a way to assess which parts of basic microeconomics are robust and which are not to the assumption of perfect maximization jel codes d01 d03 d11 d51

on the marginal welfare cost of taxation this paper develops a rigorous partial equilibrium analysis of the determinants of margin al welfare cost mwc of taxes on labor earnings it shows that four key parameters interact to determine the magnitude of mwc using aggregate data and plausible ranges of values for the parameters mwc can vary from under 10 percent to more than 300 percent of marginal tax revenue intermediate parameter values sugge st mwc is in the 25 50 percent range however the more extreme estimates cannot be ruled out on the basis of available evidence suggesting that mwc cannot yet be copyright 1987 by american economic association

dynamics of public infrastructure industrial productivity and profitability a restricted equilibrium framework is utilized to estimate the contribution of public investment in infrastructure to private sector profitability a restricted cost function in translog form which treats labor and materials as variable inputs and private capital and public sector capital stock in transportation communications and electricity as quasi fixed inputs is specified a system of non linear equations comprising variable cost function and derived input demand equations is estimated using data from 1970 to 1987 for twenty six mexican three digit manufacturing industries the divergence of private and public capital stocks from their static equilibrium levels is estimated the net rate of return to fixed factors is also calculated estimates of allocative efficiency are derived the study further provides estimates of short run and long run scale economies output elasticity of factors measures of productivity growth and technical change economic significance and policy implications of the findings are also presented copyright 1992 by mit press

when do distortionary taxes reduce the optimal supply of public goods abstract it is often argued that the optimal level of public good provision is below the first best level as long as the government s expenditures have to be financed by distortionary taxes i examine this hypothesis and show that it is correct in a representative consumer economy if i the public good is normal and ii private commodities are normal and gross substitutes otherwise counterexamples can be constructed these results hold also with heterogeneous households provided that equity considerations are ignored in general however distributional objectives may lead to a higher level of public expenditures in second best than in first best

choosing between time and state dependence micro evidence on firms price reviewing strategies because of recent findings based on survey data it is now well known that firms differ from each other with respect to their price reviewing strategies while some firms review their prices at fixed intervals of time others prefer to perform price revisions in response to changes in economic conditions some theories have been suggested to explain this however empirical evidence on the relative importance of the factors that determine the different strategies of firms is virtually non existent in this paper we help to fill this gap by investigating the factors that explain why firms follow time dependent state dependent or both time and state dependent price reviewing rules we find that the strategies of firms vary with firm characteristics that have a bearing on the importance of information costs with the variability of the optimal price and with the sensitivity of profits to non optimal prices

frictions or mental gaps what s behind the information we don t use and when do we care consumers suffer significant losses from not acting on available information these losses stem from frictions such as search costs switching costs and rational inattention as well as what we call mental gaps resulting from wrong priors worldviews or relevant features of a problem not being top of mind most research studying such losses does not empirically distinguish between these mechanisms instead we show that most highly cited papers in this area presume one mechanism underlies consumer choices and assume away other potential explanations or collapse many mechanisms together we discuss the empirical difficulties that arise in distinguishing between different mechanisms and some promising approaches for making progress in doing so we also assess when it is more or less important for researchers to distinguish between these mechanisms approaches that seek to identify true value from demand without specifying mechanisms behind this wedge are most useful when researchers are interested in evaluating allocation policies that strongly steer consumers towards better options with regulation traditional policy instruments and defaults on the other hand understanding the precise mechanisms underlying consumer losses is essential to predicting the impact of mechanism policies aimed primarily at reducing specific frictions or mental gaps without otherwise steering consumers we make the case that papers engaging with these questions empirically should be clear about whether their analyses distinguish between mechanisms behind poorly informed choices and what that implies for the questions they can answer we present examples from several empirical contexts to highlight these distinctions

intertemporal output and employment effects of public infrastructure capital evidence from 12 oecd economies this paper utilises an intertemporal optimisation framework to study the effects of public infrastructure capital on output supply and input demands in 12 oecd countries we find that in all 12 countries i public capital has positive long run effects on both output supply and input demands ii its mean short run rates of return are fairly low while the corresponding long run rates are much higher but declining over time these findings underscore important under investment gaps in infrastructure during the 1970s and 1980s these gaps however narrowed down significantly in a few cases completely by the early 1990s

foundations for optimal inattention abstract this paper models an agent who has a limited capacity to pay attention to information and thus conditions her actions on a coarsening of the available information an optimally inattentive agent chooses both her coarsening and her actions by maximization of an underlying subjective expected utility preference relation net of a cognitive cost of attention the main result axiomatically characterizes the conditional choices of actions by an agent that are necessary and sufficient for her behavior to be seen as if it is the result of optimal inattention observing these choices permits unique identification of the agent s utility index the information to which she pays attention her attention cost and her prior whenever information is costly

canadian manufacturers relative productivity performance 1907 1990 in this paper i calculate tfp ratios for a sample of canadian manufacturers relative to their american counterparts on an annual basis throughout most of the twentieth century the data used to calculate these ratios are drawn from both industry level and firm level statistical sources i find that in contrast to the relative labour productivity evidence in the literature when tfp is used as the measuring stick there is virtually no evidence of consistent and substantial relative technical inefficiency on behalf of the canadian manufacturers represented in my sample jel classification d24 n60 dans ce memoire l auteur calcule les ratios de la productivite totale des facteurs de production ptf des manufacturiers canadiens par rapport a celle de leurs collegues americains sur une base annuelle pour la plus grande partie du vingtieme siecle les donnees utilisees sont tirees des sources statistiques tant au niveau de l industrie que de l entreprise on montre que contrairement a ce que suggere la litterature specialisee a propos de la productivite relative du travail quand la ptf est utilisee comme etalon de mesure on ne trouve vraiment pas vraiment de resultats qui suggereraient une inefficacite technique relative substantielle et persistante des manufacturiers canadiens de l echantillon

inattentive professional forecasters abstract using the ecb survey of professional forecasters to characterize expectations at the micro level we emphasize two new facts forecasters i fail to systematically update their forecasts and ii disagree even when updating it is moreover found that forecasters have predictable forecast errors these facts are qualitatively supportive of recent models of inattention and suggest a setup where agents imperfectly process information due to both sticky information a la mankiw reis and noisy information a la sims however building and estimating such an expectation model we find that it cannot quantitatively replicate the error and disagreement observed in the data

public sector capital and the productivity puzzle a number of studies have suggested a quantitatively important relationship between public sector capital accumulation and private sector productivity with the most compelling evidence derived from analyses of state level data estimates herein of production functions that use standard techniques to control for unobserved state specific characteristics however reveal essentially no role for public sector capital in affecting private sector productivity only estimates of state production functions that do not include such controls find substantial productivity impacts this result reconciles existing econometric estimates with the findings of hulten and schwab based on growth accounting techniques as such techniques effectively control for state specific effects region level estimates are essentially identical to those from state data suggesting no quantitatively important spillover effects across states copyright 1994 by mit press

coarse competitive equilibrium and extreme prices we introduce a notion of coarse competitive equilibrium to study agents inability to tailor their consumption to prices our goal is to incorporate limited cognitive ability in particular limited attention memory and complexity into the analysis of competitive equilibrium compared to standard competitive equilibrium our concept yields more extreme prices and when all agents have the same endowment riskier allocations we provide a tractable model suitable for general equilibrium analysis as well as asset pricing

international trade with a public intermediate good abstract the purpose of this paper is to investigate familiar trade theorems such as the stolper samuelson samuelson rybczynski heckscher ohlin and factor price equalization theorems when a public intermediate good is accommodated in the 2 2 general equilibrium trade model the public good which is introduced by the lindahl pricing rule is assumed to be of a semipublic kind then we present the circumstances where the positive results for all of the above theorems except the factor price equalization theorem hold as for factor price equalization we show that there is a tendency for trade to equalize prices

history dependent paths and trade gains in a small open economy with a public intermediate good this study reexamines mcmillan s international economic review 19 1978 665 78 analysis of a dynamic small open economy with a public intermediate good concerning the trade patterns of the open economy we find results that were overlooked in mcmillan s analysis among others if labor endowment is of intermediate size there are two saddle point steady states and the initial stock of the public good determines the long run trade pattern we also add a gains from trade analysis to mcmillan s model and demonstrate that if the economy has a comparative advantage in a good with productivity less sensitive to the public intermediate good the economy may lose from trade at the steady state

productivity in manufacturing industries canada japan and the united states 1953 1986 was the productivity slowdown reversed this paper analyzes total factor productivity growth and trends in relative efficiency levels in the national two digit manufacturing industries of japan canada and the united states during the last quarter century the well known slowdown in productivity growth rates in the 1973 80 period was a common phenomenon across the three countries but was felt most strongly in japan and least in canada while the 1980s saw a pick up in productivity growth over the slowdown period growth in productivity has not returned to the pre 1973 level the productivity slowdown and any subsequent increase in productivity growth rates have been correlated across industries in the three countries to a very high degree

is public expenditure productive abstract this paper considers the relationship between aggregate productivity and stock and flow government spending variables the empirical results indicate that i the nonmilitary public capital stock is dramatically more important in determining productivity than is either the flow of nonmilitary or military spending ii military capital bears little relation to productivity and iii a core infrastructure of streets highways airports mass transit sewers water systems etc has most explanatory power for productivity the paper also suggests an important role for the net public capital stock in the productivity slowdown of the last fifteen years

bounded rationality lifecycle consumption and social security abstract this paper explores an overlapping generations model of bounded rationality in which consumers only foresee the future over a subset of their life span we focus in particular on whether the model can in general equilibrium produce a hump shaped lifecycle consumption profile with a peak that matches data for the average u s consumer for a simple four period model we show that an increasing income profile along with exogenously imposed retirement are sufficient to induce a hump with no other mechanism that can account for a hump besides bounded rationality the model best fits the salient features of consumption data with a planning horizon of 20 years which is well supported by the behavioral evidence found in surveys on retirement planning finally we show that the age of the consumption peak is robust to the introduction of social security mortality risk and another species of bounded rationality quasihyperbolic discounting moreover social security can be welfare improving with a short planning horizon we can calibrate the model to jointly explain the timing of the consumption hump and the optimality of the current social security system with quasihyperbolic discounting instead we can calibrate the model so the current social security system is optimal but we cannot also account for the timing of the consumption hump if we add quasihyperbolic discounting in addition to a short planning horizon the present bias has a negligible effect in equilibrium

public infrastructure and the productive performance of canadian manufacturing industries this article examines the effects of public infrastructure on the productive performance of 12 two digit canadian manufacturing industries a flexible cost function incorporating public capital infrastructure is estimated for each industry separately using annual time series data for 1961 1995 the effects of public infrastructure on productivity are measured in terms of both cost saving dual and output augmenting primal measures we also investigate how public capital influences the input demand and cost structure in each industry and calculate the rate of return to public capital the empirical results provide strong evidence of the important role public infrastructure plays in the productivity of manufacturing industries the public capital serves as a substitute for both private capital and labor in most industries the rates of return to public capital are significant and vary over the years

setting the right prices for the wrong reasons we consider a model of nominal price adjustment with firm specific and aggregate shocks to economic fundamentals and incomplete dispersed information firms update their expectations about fundamentals based on their own cash flows revenues and wages we show that in a model with realistic levels of product level price dispersion the firms inference about aggregate shocks is very gradual yet in the aggregate prices adjust rapidly in response to aggregate nominal shocks when an aggregate shock occurs firms mistakenly attribute it to firm specific shocks but adjust prices nevertheless since the exact nature of the shock matters little for its optimal pricing decision

measuring the contribution of public infrastructure capital in sweden the authors purpose is to examine ways of evaluating and measuring the contribution of public infrastructure capital to private sector output and productivity growth in sweden they do this by specifying and implementing empirically a number of alternative econometric models using annual data for sweden from 1960 to 1988 applying a dual cost function approach they find that increases in public infrastructure capital ceteris paribus reduce private sector costs the authors compute that amount of public infrastructure capital that would rationalize the cost savings incurred by the private business and manufacturing sectors and find that the amount that can be rationalized in this manner is less than what was in fact available in 1988 but that the extent of excess public infrastructure capital has been falling in the 1980s copyright 1992 by the editors of the scandinavian journal of economics

public investment optimal provision of hicksian public inputs a considerable portion of government spending is devoted to commodities that are not public goods but that directly affect production possibilities examples include public infrastructure like roads and dams educational facilities and research projects in basic science and some forms of information such commodities are public inputs in a small open economy context the focus of this paper is on those that are hicksian in nature an interesting decomposition of the beneficial impact of a hicksian public input is developed then first best and second best optimality conditions for public inputs that are comparable to those for collective consumption goods are derived

productiveness and welfare implications of public infrastructure a dynamic two sector general equilibrium analysis abstract this paper develops a dynamic general equilibrium model that provides an internally consistent micro foundations framework where various effects of infrastructure policy changes can be studied devoting additional resources to infrastructure investment can payoff in terms of sizable increases in gdp and private investment in addition to this the model also makes predictions concerning changes in the welfare of agents resulting from additional infrastructure investment specific policy recommendations that attain highest welfare gains are computed the recommendation is that on average an additional 4 of gdp per year should be devoted to public investment in the latin american countries in the sample

paying for public inputs with public consumption goods pareto optimality can be achieved in equilibrium through lindahl pricing this requires that each consumer pays a price proportional to his marginal utility from the public good the marginal cost of providing the good is then equated to the sum of the marginal benefits some public goods serve as inputs into production processes rather than as consumption goods the lighthouse is an example efficiency in an economy with public intermediate goods requires that the marginal cost of providing them equals the sum of their marginal benefits to firms by analogy with the case of public consumption goods it might seem that lindahl pricing can be extended to public intermediate goods by requiring that firms pay in proportion to the marginal contribution of these goods to profits agnar sandmo 1972 explicitly proposes this for convex technologies for nonconvex technologies that arise with an important class of production functions essentially those exhibiting atmosphere externalities in the phrase of james meade 1952 lindahl pricing for such public inputs is infeasible the principal result derived here is a sim

were there regime switches in u s monetary policy working paper 2004 14 june 2004 abstract a multivariate model identifying monetary policy and allowing for simultaneity and regime switching in coefficients and variances is confronted with u s data since 1959 the best fit is with a model that allows time variation in structural disturbance variances only among models that also allow for changes in equation coefficients the best fit is for a model that allows coefficients to change only in the monetary policy rule that model allows switching among three main regimes and one rarely and briefly occurring regime the three main regimes correspond roughly to periods when most observers believe that monetary policy actually differed and the differences in policy behavior are substantively interesting though statistically ill determined the estimates imply monetary targeting was central in the early 80s but was also important sporadically in the 70s the changes in regime were essential neither to the rise in inflation in the 70s nor to its decline in the 80s jel classification e52 e47 c53 key words counterfactuals lucas critique policy rule monetary targeting simultaneity volatility model comparison i the debate over monetary policy change in an influential paper clarida gali and gertler 2000 cgg presented evidence that us monetary policy changed between the 1970 s and the 1980 s indeed that in the 70 s it was drastically worse they found that the policy rule apparently followed in the 70 s was one that when embedded in most stochastic general equilibrium models would imply non uniqueness of the equilibrium and hence vulnerability of the economy to sunspot fluctuations of arbitrarily large size their estimated policy rule for the later period on the other hand eliminated this indeterminacy these results are a possible explanation of the volatile and rising inflation of the 70 s and of its subsequent decline the cgg analysis has two important weaknesses one is that it fails to account for stochastic volatility us macroeconomic variables and particularly the federal funds rate have gone through periods of tranquility and of agitation with forecast error variances varying greatly from period to period ignoring such variation does not lead to inconsistent estimates of model parameters when the forecasting equations themselves are constant but it strongly biases toward a finding of changed parameters tests of the stability of the forecasting equations the other weakness is that the cgg analysis rests on powerful and implausible identifying assumptions they require that we accept that the response of the monetary authority to expected future inflation and output does not depend on the recent history of inflation money growth or output it is hard to understand why this should be so especially in the 70 s when monetarism was a prominent theme in policy debates congress was requiring reports from the fed of projected time paths of monetary aggregates and financial markets were reacting sensitively to weekly money supply numbers the requirement for existence and uniqueness of equilibrium in dynamic models is that the monetary policy rule show a more than unit response of interest rates to the sum of the logs of all nominal variables that appear on the right hand side of the reaction function if we force a particular measure of expected future inflation to proxy for all the nominal variables that actually appear independently in the reaction function we are bound to get distorted conclusions on the one hand because expected future inflation will be a noisy measure of the full set of nominal influences on policy we might get downward bias in our estimates from the usual errorsin variables effect on the other hand to the extent that expected future inflation like most expected future values shows less variation than current nominal variables we could find a mistaken scaling up of coefficients

distortionary taxation and optimal public spending on productive activities mutsumi matsumoto using a general equilibrium model with endogenous factor supplies this article investigates the provision of factor augmenting public inputs such inputs are intermediate goods that affect production functions in a collective manner and give rise to increasing returns unlike with collective consumption goods deviation from the first best condition for a public input is inappropriate if taxes are set optimally when taxes are not optimal a second best rule must include a feedback effect on revenue as well as the deadweight cost of taxes implications for benefit cost analysis and for interpretation of estimates of the social returns to public capital are explored jel h21 h54 o4 i introduction government spending on public infrastructure and on human capital formation are often cited as important contributing forces to economic growth with reference to less developed economies isham and kaufmann 1999 show that the returns from public infrastructure investments are very high where the overall policy regime is basically sound turning to human capital psacharopolous and woodhall 1985 point out the sizable excess of social over private returns from education temple 1999 indicates that the importance of these public investments and others like them for example research and development is not limited to less developed countries appropriate levels are important across all economies the key characteristic of these sorts of commodities is that they exhibit positive externalities across productive entities in short they may be categorized as public intermediate goods or public inputs although such commodities are beneficial they are also costly spending on them takes a large portion of p ublic budgets moreover government financing of these costs typically involves the use of distortionary taxes those taxes create excess burden the magnitudes of which may be substantial for instance in an influential contribution browning 1987 21 suggests the marginal excess burden of taxes on labor income ranges from 31 8 to 46 9 the crux of this article is the relevance of distortionary taxes to decisions about public input expenditure bruce 1998 457 and musgrave et al 1987 288 89 suggest the incorporation of the deadweight cost of taxation as a cost when evaluating public projects boardman et al 1996 62 64 in their authoritative benefit cost text recommend the inclusion of deadweight loss in the assessment of net benefits of tax funded public projects these recommendations are intuitively appealing they are also consistent with the second best expenditure condition for spending on public consumption goods atkinson and stern 1974 show that marginal cost of a public consumption good must include the excess burden of the tax system indeed some of the most important recent empirical work on the returns from public capital have assessed those returns after netting out the deadweight loss of the tax system see morrison and schwartz 1996 and nadiri and mamuneas 1994 this article investigates the theoretical basis for deviating from the first best rule for public input provision when taxes are distortionary 1 one finding is that despite the deadweight losses a second best rule for public inputs should not be followed when taxes are set optimally the first best condition remains appropriate in effect the production efficiency theorem of diamond and mirrlees 1971 extends to a public input economy however and importantly for actual policy when taxes are not optimal then not only the excess burden but the impact of the public input on the government s budgetary position must be taken into account these qualifications need to be incorporated into empirical studies and benefit cost analysis ii the model the analysis makes use of a general equilibrium model of a competitive economy in which factor supplies are variable and there is a public input

public infrastructure and regional economic development a simultaneous equations approach an analysis of how central bank exchange market intervention can affect both the level of exchange rates and the risk premium in asset returns showing how the risk premium is related to the conditional variances of intervention and other exogenous processes

implications of rational inattention abstract a constraint that actions can depend on observations only through a communication channel with finite shannon capacity is shown to be able to play a role very similar to that of a signal extraction problem or an adjustment cost in standard control problems the resulting theory looks enough like familiar dynamic rational expectations theories to suggest that it might be useful and practical while the implications for policy are different enough to be interesting

quantifying quality growth we introduce an instrumental variables approach to estimate the importance of unmeasured quality growth for a set of 66 durable consumer goods our instrument is based on predicting which of these 66 goods will display rapid quality growth using pooled cross relatively sections of households in the 1980 through 1996 u s consumer expenditure surveys we estimate quality engel curves for 66 durable consumer goods based on the extent richer households pay more for a good conditional on purchasing we use the slopes of these curves to predict the rate of quality upgrading just as if households are ascending these quality engel curves over time we find that the average price paid rises faster for goods with steeper quality slopes bls prices likewise increase more quickly for goods with steeper quality slopes suggesting the bls does not fully net out the impact of quality upgrading on prices paid we estimate that quality growth averages about 3 7 per year for our goods with about 60 of this or 2 2 per year showing up as higher inflation rather than higher real growth