analyzing the impact of the world s largest public works project on crime india started the implementation of a rural public works program in 2006 covering all districts of the country within 3 years the program guarantees 100 days of employment per year at minimum wage to each rural household with the goal of reducing joblessness and poverty we exploit the design and implementation of this program to investigate its employment impact on various types of crimes to provide rare evidence on the employment crime relationship in a developing country context we find that employment generated by the program has a negative impact on both property crime and violent crime the same conclusion is reached when we analyze the impact of the program using its staggered rollout structure as the source of identification in a difference in difference analysis although crime elasticities with respect to employment are small this finding represents another dimension of the social benefit generated by the program jel k4 e24 h54

commodity price shocks and civil conflict evidence from colombia how do income shocks aect armed con ict theory suggests two op posite eects if labor is used to appropriate resources violently higher wages may lower con ict by reducing labor supplied to appropriation this is the opportunity cost eect alternatively a rise in contestable income may increase violence by raising gains from appropriation this is the rapacity eect our paper exploits exogenous price shocks in inter national commodity markets and a rich dataset on civil war in colombia to assess how dierent income shocks aect con ict we examine changes in the price of agricultural goods which are labor intensive and natural resources which are capital intensive we focus on coee and oil the two largest exports we nd that a sharp fall in coee prices in the 1990s increased violence dierentially in regions growing more coee by lower ing wages and the opportunity cost of joining armed groups in contrast a rise in oil prices increased violence dierentially in the oil region by in creasing municipal revenue siphoned through rapacity this pattern holds in several other agricultural and natural resource sectors providing robust evidence that price shocks aect con ict in opposite directions depending on the factor intensity of the commodity

multiple experiments for the causal link between the quantity and quality of children this article presents evidence on the child quantity child quality trade off using quasi experimental variation due to twin births and preferences for a mixed sibling sex composition as well as ethnic differences in the effects of these variables our sample includes groups with very high fertility an innovation in our econometric approach is the juxtaposition of results from multiple instrumental variables strategies capturing the effects of fertility over different ranges for different sorts of people to increase precision we develop an estimator that combines different instrument sets across partially overlapping parity specific subsamples our results are remarkably consistent in showing no evidence of a quantity quality trade off

trade costs and deviations from the law of one price the link between relative prices across countries and trade costs requires a theoretical foundation that is absent in the literature to date empirical tests on the law of one price are based on an arbitrage equation which is of very limited relevance in understanding this link the application of a new set of arbitrage equations to the tin trade market yields results that are consistent with our theoretical expectations we find evidence in favor of the law of one price between the united states and japan however evidence of price discrimination is also found for the los angeles market

education work and crime a human capital approach this article develops a model of crime in which human capital increases the opportunity cost of crime from foregone work and expected costs associated with incarceration older more intelligent and more educated adults should commit fewer street unskilled crimes white collar crimes decline less or increase with age and education predictions for age crime and education crime relationships receive broad empirical support in self report data from the national longitudinal survey of youth and arrest data from the uniform crime reports the effects of education training and wage subsidies as well as enforcement policies on criminal behavior are discussed

deviations from purchasing power parity in the long run this paper demonstrates that deviations from purchasing power parity reveal a remarkable and possibly startling consistency with martingale behavior during both fixed and flexible rate periods for a wide variety of countries and in both monthly and annual data since this pattern appears to be much more general than one would expect on the basis of models founded on international commodity arbitrage the paper proposes an alternative explanation which instead relies on financial arbitrage in bonds as the underlying mechanism this paper will demonstrate that deviations from purchasing power parity ppp reveal a remarkable and possibly startling consistency with martingale behavior during both fixed and flexible exchange rate periods for a wide variety of countries and in both monthly and annual data this pattern appears to be much more general than one would expect on the basis of models founded on international commodity arbitrage the paper therefore proposes an alternative explanation which does not presuppose free trade in goods but which instead relies on financial arbitrage in bonds as the underlying mechanism the major implication of the theory and the results is that ppp is as likely to be violated in the long as in the short run as an empirical matter deviations from ppp can be observed for most currencies at any instant see kravis et al 21 stockman 37 and genberg 15 among others these deviations are typically both cumulative and persistent the real exchange rate can remain on either side of parity for lengthy but variable time intervals of a year or more as a consequence the current consensus shared

crime rates and local labor market opportunities in the united states 1979 1997 the labor market prospects of young unskilled men fell dramatically in the 1980s and improved in the 1990s crime rates show a reverse pattern increasing during the 1980s and falling in the 1990s because young unskilled men commit most crime this paper seeks to establish a causal relationship between the two trends previous work on the relationship between labor markets and crime focused mainly on the relationship between the unemployment rate and crime and found inconclusive results in contrast this paper examines the impact of both wages and unemployment on crime and uses instrumental variables to establish causality we conclude that both wages and unemployment are significantly related to crime but that wages played a larger role in the crime trends over the last few decades these results are robust to the inclusion of deterrence variables controls for simultaneity and controlling for individual and family characteristics

building criminal capital behind bars peer effects in juvenile corrections this paper analyzes the influence that juvenile offenders serving time in the same correctional facility have on each other s subsequent criminal behavior the analysis is based on data on over 8 000 individuals serving time in 169 juvenile correctional facilities during a two year period in florida these data provide a complete record of past crimes facility assignments and arrests and adjudications in the year following release for each individual to control for the non random assignment to facilities we include facility fixed effects thereby estimating peer effects using only within facility variation over time we find strong evidence of peer effects for various categories of theft burglary and felony drug and weapon crimes the influence of peers primarily affects individuals who already have some experience in a particular crime category we also find evidence that peer effects are stronger in smaller facilities and that the predominant types of peer effects differ in residential versus non residential facilities effects in the latter are consistent with network formation among youth serving time close to home

optimal social security with imperfect tagging workers are exposed to the risk of permanent disability we rely on a dynamic mechanism design approach to determine how imperfect information on health should optimally be used to improve the trade off between inducing the able to work and providing insurance against disability after deriving the fi rst order conditions to this problem we calibrate the model to the u s economy and run a numerical simulation the government should offer back loaded incentives and make strategic use of the difference between the age at which disability occurs and the age of eligibility to disability bene ts also the able who are mistakenly tagged as disabled should be encouraged to work until some early retirement age this makes a decrease in the strictness of the disability test desirable which would reduce the number of disabled who are not awarded the tag and hence improve insurance finally we show how the first best allocation of resources can asymptotically be implemented by making strategic use of the disability test

a dynamic general equilibrium analysis of deviations from the laws of one price abstract using disaggregated west german prices this study documents movements in relative export and producer prices and in relative import and producer prices which are variable and highly autocorrelated this suggests the presence of time varying persistent deviations from the laws of one price perfect competition monopoly and monopolistic competition with constant mark up pricing are inconsistent with the variability in relative export and producer prices furthermore cournot oligopoly is inconsistent with the variability in relative import and producer prices a dynamic general equilibrium model with differentiated oligopolistic competition and strategic pricing is shown to generate variable and persistent movements in both measures of relative prices

optimal demogrants with imperfect tagging abstract this paper considers optimal taxation of income when some individuals are imperfectly tagged as disabled it proves that under very general conditions these individuals should receive a larger demogrant if leisure is a normal good

a dynamic model of differential human capital and criminal activity this paper presents a dynamic model of criminal activity individuals are endowed with legal and criminal human capital potential incomes in legal and criminal sectors depend on the level of the relevant human capital the rate of return and random shocks human capital can be enhanced by participating in both sectors legal human capital can also be enhanced through investment human capital is subject to depreciation individuals maximize expected discounted lifetime utility which depends on consumption the model allows analyses of the effects of recessions imprisonment rehabilitation scenarios sanctions and returns to human capital new insights such as hysteresis in criminal behaviour are obtained

some pitfalls in testing the law of one price in commodity markets abstract several articles find no support for the lop in commodity markets a few articles find some support rejecting the lop would strike at the heart of economic theory rejection would suggest that firms do not maximize wealth and households do not maximize utility our objective is to show how four common pitfalls can cause tests of the lop to fail when in fact the lop holds all tests that fail to support the lop fall in to at least two pitfalls all of these pitfalls are the result of ignoring important practical implications of arbitrage

can the rural employment guarantee scheme reduce rural out migration evidence from west bengal india abstractusing survey data from the cooch behar district of west bengal the paper documents the impact of the rural employment guarantee scheme in reducing rural out migration using regression framework and case studies it finds no significant impact of household participation in the programme on migration decision however extent of participation in terms of number of days of work and earnings has a significant negative impact on short term migration but not on longer duration ones the findings lay emphasis on effective implementation in terms of asset creation reduction in rationing of works and tackling delayed payments to enjoy its potential benefits

welfare work requirements with paternalistic government preferences work requirements in means tested transfer programmes have grown in importance in the us and in some other countries the theoretical literature which considers their possible optimality generally operates within a traditional welfarist framework where some function of the utility of the poor is maximised here we consider a case where society instead has preferences over the actual work allocations of welfare recipients optimality of work requirements is shown to be possible but depends on the accuracy of the screening mechanism which assigns work requirements numerical simulations show that accuracy must be high for optimality earnings subsidies may also be optimal work requirements in means tested or welfare programmes have seen a resurgence in the last twenty years in the us and in a few european countries these requirements generally stipulate that benefit recipients must work or engage in some work like activity for some minimum number of hours each week most economists who have studied the

seasonal migration and welfare illfare in eastern india a social analysis over 500 000 people are regularly engaged in seasonal migration for rice work into southern west bengal this paper analyses social processes at work in the interactions between employers and workers and the welfare illfare outcomes group identities based on religion and ethnicity are strengthened through the experience of migration and deployed by some migrants to make this form of employment less degrading in west bengal seasonal migration can involve practical welfare gains importantly an informal wage floor has been put into place and managed by the peasant union allied to the largest party in the left front regime however the costs and risks of migration remain high

economic liberalization and violent crime abstracti study the effect of economic liberalization on violent crime the particular emphasis is on the case of india where in the years following 1991 there was a virtual dismantling of controls on entry and production in registered manufacturing this was accompanied by a significant reduction in impediments to foreign trade and access to foreign exchange economic controls create an incentive for illegal trade and a frequent by product of illegal trade is violent crime consequently violent crimes such as murders would be expected to decline following market based reforms analysis of aggregate all india data as well as data at the state level suggests that economic reforms did indeed lead to a reduction in violent crime i extend the analysis to a panel of countries and find strong evidence that greater trade openness is negatively related to violent crime

development crime and punishment accounting for the international differences in crime rates abstract this paper analyzes the determinants of the heterogeneity in crime rates across countries focusing on reporting rates and development the behavior of the reporting rate is studied by comparing data from victimization surveys to official records reporting rates are strongly correlated with development richer countries report a higher fraction of crimes the positive relation between development and crime found in previous studies is shown to result from this correlation once the presence of the reporting error is accounted for development does not affect crime reductions in inequality and increases in growth and education are associated with reductions in crime rates

the crime reducing effect of education in this article we study the crime reducing potential of education presenting causal statistical estimates based upon a law that changed the compulsory school leaving age in england and wales we frame the analysis in a regression discontinuity setting and uncover significant decreases in property crime from reductions in the proportion of people with no educational qualifications and increases in the age of leaving school that resulted from the change in the law the findings show that improving education can yield significant social benefits and can be a key policy tool in the drive to reduce crime

the law of one price in international commodity markets a reformulation and some formal tests abstract we report formal tests of whether the law of one price lop holds in the long and in the short run for commodities traded in orgnized markets we formalize the distinction between short and long run by introducing lagged price adjustments also we introduce expectations explicitly tests support the long run lop but they reject the short rn lop the long run lop holds better for future prices than for spot prices on average 90 per cent of the deviation from lop is eliminated within 10 weeks but this ranges from 1 to 120 weeks

spot and futures prices and the law of one price the law of one price lop is tested for narrowly defined commodities traded in futures markets in different countries during the period 1973 80 although the lop holds as an average tendency for most of the commodities there are instances of large riskless arbitrage returns before transactions costs deviations from the lop tend to be commodity specific rather than due to a common external factor and they tend to be smaller the longer the maturity of the futures contract in this paper we examine how well the law of one price lop holds for commodities traded internationally the answer to this question is important for two reasons the first is that in most modern theories of exchange rates price arbitrage for at least some goods is a necessary condition to determine the level of exchange rates but recent empirical research on the behavior of various price indices casts doubt on the empirical validity of the lop across countries for even the most disaggregated indices if it is not possible to identify any commodities for which the lop works satisfactorily then models incorporating the lop will not provide an adequate description of exchange rates the second reason for studying individual commodities is to gain information on the efficiency and the degree of integration of international commodity markets in efficient markets international commodity arbitrage implies that for a standard commodity prices in two markets expressed in a common currency will not differ but for transport costs

do dropouts drop out too soon wealth health and happiness from compulsory schooling abstract this paper uses compulsory schooling laws to evaluate high school dropout decisions the main empirical result is that lifetime wealth increases by about 15 with an extra year of compulsory schooling students compelled to stay in school are also less likely to report being in poor health unemployed and unhappy the main conclusion is that high school aversion alone is unlikely to explain why dropouts forgo substantial gains to lifetime wealth the results are more consistent with the possibility that adolescents ignore or heavily discount future consequences when deciding to drop out of school if teenagers are myopic making school compulsory or offering incentives to stay in school may help improve lifetime outcomes

fair income tax fairness is a key concept in redistribution issues in this paper we study how particular requirements of fairness can shed light on the design of the optimal income tax schedule we consider a population of heterogeneous individuals or households who differ in two respects first they have unequal skills and therefore unequal earning abilities second they differ in terms of their preferences about consumption and leisure and as a consequence typically make different labour time choices both kinds of differences generate income inequalities we study how to justify and compute a redistribution income tax in this context redistribution through an income tax usually entails distortions of incentives but the resulting efficiency loss has to be weighed against potential improvements in the fairness of the distribution of resources we address this efficiency equity trade off here by constructing social preferences which obey the standard pareto principle in addition to fairness conditions

extreme dependence in price transmission analysis abstractwe propose a generalized procedure that combines conventional price transmission analysis with copula based dynamic tail dependence to examine price relationships under extreme conditions this approach is used to examine ukrainian wheat markets where export restrictions combined with price surges 2006 2008 and 2010 2012 have contributed to a turbulent market the results indicate that domestic prices were effectively insulated from world price shocks but that a rocket and feathers price relation held between domestic flour and wheat prices these asymmetric price co movements changed with the degree of restrictiveness of the export prohibitions

identifying the effect of unemployment on crime abstract in this paper we analyze the relationship between unemployment and crime using u s state data we estimate the effect of unemployment on the rates of seven felony offenses we control extensively for state level demographic and economic factors and estimate specifications that include state specific time trends state effects and year effects in addition we use prime defense contracts and a state specific measure of exposure to oil shocks as instruments for unemployment rates we find significantly positive effects of unemployment on property crime rates that are stable across model specifications our estimates suggest that a substantial portion of the decline in property crime rates during the 1990s is attributable to the decline in the unemployment rate the evidence for violent crime is considerably weaker however a closer analysis of the violent crime of rape yields some evidence that the employment prospects of males are weakly related to state rape rates

crime and unemployment in turbulent times we use the exceptional variation in municipality level unemployment in sweden during the 1990s to identify the effect of unemployment on crime our findings are as follows i there is a statistically and economically significant effect of general unemployment on the incidence of burglary auto theft and drug possession ii we find no evidence for the popular view that youth unemployment matters for crime iii prime aged unemployment is robustly correlated with main categories of youthful crimes a finding consistent with the idea that unstable life conditions of parents have adverse spillover effects on the life choices of their children jel j00 k4

consumption and real exchange rates in dynamic economies with non traded goods abstract we examine the possibility that non traded goods may account for several striking features of international macroeconomic data large persistent deviations from purchasing power parity small correlations of aggregate consumption fluctuations across countries and substantial international real interest rate differentials a dynamic exchange economy is used to show that non traded goods in principle can account for each of these phenomena in the theory there is a close relation between fluctuations in consumption ratios and those in bilateral real exchange rates but we find little evidence for this relation in time series data for eight oecd countries

flexible exchange rates prices and the role of news lessons from the 1970s recent experience with flexible exchange rate systems has led to renewed interest in the operation of foreign exchange markets as reflected in many recent studies of the principal determinants of exchange rates the 1970s witnessed the dramatic alteration of the international monetary system from a regime of pegged exchange rates which prevailed for about a quarter of a century since the bretton woods conference into a regime of flexible though managed rates as a consequence of the emergence of the new legal and economic system traders national governments and international organisations were confronted with new economic problems choices and instruments during the 1970s ex change rates fluctuated widely and inflation rates accelerated the international monetary system had to accommodate extraordinarily large oil related shocks which affected trade flows in goods and assets huge oil payments had to be recycled uncertainties concerning future developments in international politics reached new heights and the prospects for the world economy got gloomier these developments placed unprecedented pressures on the markets for foreign exchange as well as on other asset markets they were associated with a large slide in the value of the us dollar and resulted in speeding up the creation of new institutions like the european monetary system which provided the formal framework for the management of exchange rates among members

commodity prices exchange rates and their relative volatility abstract exchange rates are move volatile than rates implied by ppp using conventional price indexes this fact has led many to believe that exchange rates fluctuate more than is warranted by the variability in commodity prices and supports those who believe that fluctuations in exchange rates are excessive we show that exchange rates are less volatile than commodity prices in auction markets and less volatile than rates implied by the law of one price using such prices we also show that the behavior of exchange rates and the rates implied by these commodity prices is not consistent with the dornbusch overshooting model

empirically testing the law of one price in an international commodity market a rational expectations application to the natural rubber market abstract the law of one price lop is an important ingredient in theories of international trade and exchange rate determination an important shortcoming of the existing empirical literature is that parity is typically assumed to hold contemporaneously this overlooks the fact that international commodity arbitrage takes place over time as well as across spatially separated markets recognizing this fact we expect to see parity holding for expected prices a model which incorporates the expectations of commodity arbitragers is constructed and used to test the lop in the natural rubber market results indicate that the inclusion of expectations may be of value when considering the lop

economic aspects of optimal disability benefits this paper analyzes optimal disability and retirement or welfare benefits with imperfect disability evaluation with some able workers judged disabled and some disabled workers judged able thus the levels of both disability and retirement benefits affect labor supply with anyone not working eligible for retirement benefits we analyze the optimal structure of benefits for a given disability screening mechanism and briefly consider the problem of optimal evaluations of disability evidence in the united states there is an overlap in eligibility for disability and retirement portions of social security more generally welfare is sometimes available to people denied disability benefits

crime and economic incentives we explore the role that economic incentives particularly changes in wages at the bottom end of the wage distribution play in determining crime rates we use data on the police force areas of england and wales between 1975 and 1996 and find relative falls in the wages of low wage workers lead to increases in crime we carry out a number of experiments with different wage measures including a wage measure that accounts for the effects of changes in the composition of employment these reinforce the picture of a strong association between the low wage labor market and crime the result that incentives play a central role is reinforced further by the strong impact on crime of deterrence measures and of a measure of the returns to crime

identifying price linkages a review of the literature and an application to the world market of cotton this paper reviews the literature of price linkages and examines the degree to which cotton prices are linked it also tests whether such linkages have improved over the last decade it concludes that the degree of linkage has improved over the last decade while the main source of this improvement appears to be a result of short run price transmission and to a lesser extent long run co movement

does child labour displace schooling evidence on behavioral responses to an enrollment subsidy this brief summarizes the results of a gender impact evaluation study entitled does child labour displace schooling evidence on behavioral responses to an enrollment subsidy conducted between 1995 and 1996 in bangladesh the study observed that the subsidy increases schooling but its effect on child labour is ambiguous the subsidy increased schooling by far more than it reduced child labour substitution effects helped protect current incomes from the higher school attendance induced by the subsidy substitution effects helped protect current incomes from the higher school attendance induced by the subsidy the reduction in the incidence of child labour by boys girls represents about one quarter eighth of the increase in their school enrollment rate

the changing returns to crime do criminals respond to prices to what extent does crime follow the pattern of potential gains to illegal activity this article presents evidence on how criminals respond to this key incentive by reporting crime price elasticities estimated from a comprehensive crime dataset containing detailed information on stolen items for london between 2002 and 2012 evidence of significant positive crime price elasticities are shown for a panel of 44 consumer goods and for commodity related goods jewellery fuel and metal crimes the reported evidence indicates that potential gains are a major empirical driver of criminal activity and a crucial part of the economic model of crime the changing structure of goods prices helps to explain over 10 15 of the observed fall in property crime across all goods categories and the majority of the sharp increases in the commodity related goods observed between 2002 and 2012

the effect of education on crime evidence from prison inmates arrests and self reports we estimate the effect of high school graduation on participation in criminal activity accounting for endogeneity of schooling we begin by analyzing the effect of high school graduation on incarceration using census data instrumental variable estimates using changes in state compulsory attendance laws as an instrument for high school graduation uncover a significant reduction in incarceration for both blacks and whites when estimating the impact of high school graduation only ols and iv estimators estimate different weighted sums of the impact of each schooling progression on the probability of incarceration we clarify the relationship between ols and iv estimates and show that the weights placed on the impact of each schooling progression can explain differences in the estimates overall the estimates suggest that completing high school reduces the probability of incarceration by about 76 percentage points for whites and 3 4 percentage points for blacks we corroborate these findings using fbi data on arrests that distinguish among different types of crimes the biggest impacts of graduation are associated with murder assault and motor vehicle theft we also examine the effect of drop out on self reported crime in the nlsy and find that our estimates for imprisonment and arrest are caused by changes in criminal behavior and not educational differences in the probability of arrest or incarceration conditional on crime we estimate that the externality of education is about 14 26 of the private return to schooling suggesting that a significant part of the social return to education comes in the form of externalities from crime reduction

negative marginal tax rates and heterogeneity the bulk of the theory of optimal taxation recommends that the marginal tax rate be everywhere positive labor supply is distorted downwards compared with laissez faire the conditions under which the result holds continuous labor supply or intensive margin unobserved productivity constant opportunity cost of work utilitarian planner with a redistributive motive towards lower incomes have been thoroughly investigated jesus seade 1977 1982 ivan werning 2000 martin f hellwig 2007 the purpose of the present paper is to describe how negative marginal tax rates can be optimal keeping with the intensive set up largely studied in the literature when there are multiple dimensions of heterogeneity indeed james a mirrlees 1976 in its section iv indicates along a line that will be pursued further here that the sign of the marginal tax rate cannot be predicted when the agents in the economy differ along several dimensions of heterogeneity workers differ in both their productivities and opportunity costs of work under utilitarianism heterogeneity comes into play through its impact on cardinal utilities how social weights or marginal utilities of income vary with income determines the shape of the optimal tax scheme conditionally on income utility and more importantly its derivative with respect to income may either decrease or increase with work opportunity costs this may vary according to circumstances depending on whether the cost is associated with poor living conditions i e a handicap or reflects a taste for leisure or opportunities outside the labor market such as gardening at home or black market activities for a given income the social weight is proportional to the expected marginal utilities where the expectation is taken over the distribution of work opportunity costs at this income level therefore the social weight curve depends on both the specification of the cardinal utility function and on how the distribution of work opportunity costs changes with income the fact that heterogeneity can blur the redistribution motive through the possible correlation between ability and onerousness of work has been discussed in models where agents have a finite number of types a pioneer work is that of joseph e stiglitz 1982 who shows that the high skilled individual should face a negative marginal tax rate if the low skilled individual s upward incentive constraint binds which is the case if social weights are increasing in type the importance of this observation for policy was pointed out in katherine cuff 2000 who is the first to explicitly link social weights to the opportunity cost of work using alternative choices of cardinal utilities in a model with four types combining two values for productivity and two values for the cost of work robin boadway et al 2002 showed how it can be optimal to have binding upward incentive constraints when high opportunity costs are associated with small social weights

crime punishment and the market for offenses crime is a subject of intense emotions conflicting ideologies however economists have generally explained it as a reflection of individual choice and equilibrating market forces two major themes of the literature are outlined the evolution of a market model to explain the diversity of crime across time and space and the debate about the usefulness of positive versus negative incentives systematic analyses generally indicate that crime is affected on the margin by both positive and negative incentives there are serious limitations to the effectiveness of incapacitation and rehabilitation and optimal enforcement strategies involve trade offs between narrow efficiency and equity considerations

carrots sticks and broken windows abstract this paper investigates the effect of economic conditions carrots and sanctions sticks on murder assault robbery burglary motor vehicle theft grand larceny and rape in new york city using monthly time series data spanning 1974 99 carrots are measured by the unemployment rate and the real minimum wage sticks are measured by the number of felony arrests size of the police force and number of new york city residents in prison in addition the paper tests the validity of the broken windows hypothesis consistent with its implementation by the new york police department we use misdemeanor arrests as a measure of broken windows policing the broken windows hypothesis has validity in the case of robbery motor vehicle theft and grand larceny while both economic and deterrence variables are important in explaining the decline in crime the contribution of deterrence measures is larger than those of economic variables

imperfect tagging in social insurance programs abstract this paper derives the optimal benefit structure of an earnings insurance program when a characteristic or tag imperfectly identifies those unable to work with a two sided classification error the optimal program is a dual work incentive system with a work non work consumption differential maintained for the tagged and untagged just sufficient to induce the able in each group to work and with more generous payments to tagged than to untagged individuals of the same work status it includes premiums to program eligible individuals who work a price missing in the u s social security disability system and in earlier attempts to characterize the optimal disability program

estimating average and local average treatment effects of education when compulsory schooling laws really matter the change to the minimum school leaving age in the united kingdom from 14 to 15 had a powerful and immediate effect that redirected almost half the population of 14 year olds in the mid twentieth century to stay in school for one more year the magnitude of this impact provides a rare opportunity to a estimate local average treatment effects late of high school that come close to population average treatment effects ate and b estimate returns to education using a regression discontinuity design instead of previous estimates that rely on difference in differences methodology or relatively weak instruments comparing late estimates for the united states and canada where very few students were affected by compulsory school laws to the united kingdom estimates provides a test as to whether instrumental variables iv returns to schooling often exceed ordinary least squares ols because gains are high only for small and peculiar groups among the more general population i find instead that the benefits from compulsory schooling are very large whether these laws have an impact on a majority or minority of those exposed

what does purchasing power parity mean this paper examines the theoretical and empirical content of purchasing power parity ppp in efficient markets it analyzes the sources of deviations from the strictest version of ppp that exchange adjusted price levels are everywhere identical focusing on the role played by uncertainty relative price changes inappropriate price data transaction costs and government intervention in creating these deviations it then identifies and addresses the key issue involving purchasing power parity are the deviations from ppp that occur sufficiently large persistent and predictable as to enable individuals or governments to successfully exploit them an answer of no is shown to be consistent with both economic theory and the empirical evidence

finishing high school and starting college do catholic schools make a difference in this paper we consider two measures of the relative effectiveness of public and catholic schools finishing high school and starting college these measures are potentially more important indicators of school quality than standardized test scores in light of the economic consequences of obtaining more education single equation estimates suggest that for the typical student attending a catholic high school raises the probability of finishing high school or entering a four year college by thirteen percentage points in bivariate probit models we find almost no evidence that our single equation estimates are subject to selection bias

more about the law of one price this article explores the general difficulty of testing the law of one price based on evidence about commodity prices and exchange rates but without regard to transfer costs it then reports on tests based on this sort of limited evidence using price data at the finest possible level of disaggregation in any official statistics a part of the results are favorable to the law but the clearest conclusion is that we shall probably never be able to come to any general verdict about the law in the absence of evidence about transfer costs

some further evidence on the law of one price the law of one price still holds international trade models often postulate the existence of a representative price i e the price which prevails at all markets this is known as the law of one price in this paper the law of one price is tested for seven commodities among four countries by explicitly considering transaction costs the empirical evidence suggests that in most cases the law of one price cannot be rejected asa maintained hypothesis furthermore for the remaining cases transaction costs seem to cause the failure