structural transformation the mismeasurement of productivity growth and the cost disease of services if workers self select into industries based upon their relative productivity in different tasks and comparative advantage is aligned with absolute advantage then the average efficacy of a sector s workforce will be negatively correlated with its employment share this might explain the difference in the reported productivity growth of contracting goods and expanding services instrumenting with defense expenditures i find the elasticity of worker efficacy with respect to employment shares is substantially negative albeit estimated imprecisely the estimates suggest that the view that goods and services have similar productivity growth rates is a plausible alternative characterization of growth in developed economies jel e23 e24 h56 j24 o41 o47 one of the strongest and seemingly most accurate characterizations of the process and problems of growth in advanced economies is william baumol s cost disease of services baumol s argument begun in papers as early as 1965 and continuing to this very day e g baumol and bowen 1965 baumol 1967 baumol blackman and wolff 1985 and baumol 2012 starts from the premise that productivity growth is inherently more difficult to achieve in the production of services than in the pro

an evaluation of the life cycle effects of minimum pensions on retirement behavior in this paper we explore the effects of the minimum pension program on welfare and retirement in spain this is done with a stylized life cycle model which provides a convenient analytical characterization of optimal behavior we use data from the spanish social security to estimate the behavioral parameters of the model and then simulate the changes induced by the minimum pension in aggregate retirement patterns the impact is substantial there is a threefold increase in retirement at 60 the age of first entitlement with respect to the economy without minimum pensions and total early retirement before or at 60 is almost 50 larger copyright 2007 john wiley sons ltd

foreign direct investment mode choice entry and establishment modes in transition economies in this study we bridge two streams of foreign direct investment literature specifically studies on establishment mode choice i e the choice between an acquisition and a greenfield establishment and studies on entry mode choice i e the choice between a wholly owned outlet and a subsidiary with shared ownership we arrive at a conceptual synthesis for an examination of the effects of the same predictors on the dual entry establishment mode choice made in the context of a single foreign investment we demonstrate that a parent firm s technological intensity international strategy and experience determine both establishment and entry mode choices moreover we apply williamson s new institutional economics to investigate the influence of institution building on multinational enterprises dual investment choice in the context of transition economies we test empirically the possible moderating effect of a host country s institutional environment we conclude that the degree of the host country s institutional advancement moderates the effect of both technological intensity and international strategy on the establishment and entry mode choice

the augmented latent class model incorporating additional heterogeneity in the latent class model for panel data abstract marketing researchers have actively sought to account for the heterogeneity in households preferences and responses to marketing mix elements e g price promotion when analyzing scanner panel data this is because not doing so biases response coefficient estimates that can potentially alter the conclusions drawn from such analyses in this article the authors present an extension to the latent class model lcm that accounts for additional heterogeneity by allowing households preferences to be a continuous mixture of segment level preferences the authors show how their model generalizes the lcm by the mere addition of s 1 parameters where s refers to the number of segments because a limitation of the traditional lcm is that it does not adequately account for heterogeneity in responses across households the authors model mitigates this criticism leveled at the lcm they then compare their model with the traditional lcm and the equivalent continuous mixture random effects models in

a life cycle consumption model with liquidity constraints theory and empirical results a structural consumption model incorporating endogenous liquidity constraints is fit to a cross section of 798 u s families liquidity constrained families are estimated to constitute 19 4 percent of the population sampled a group that accounts for 16 7 percent of consumption in the population sampled in sample simulations of the model suggest that a temporary tax has three to four times more impact on aggregate consumption than it would if liquidity constraints were not in effect copyright 1987 by the econometric society

a managerial decision model of international cooperative venture formation this paper develops a model of international cooperative venture formation that is centered on the decisionmaking process of mne executives central issues for managerial decisions are developed from the organizational studies literature a framework delineating the sequence and criteria used in the decision to form international cooperative ventures is developed from these defined issues and from existing models propositions pertaining to the venture formation decision process are outlined

the hyperbolic consumption model calibration simulation and empirical evaluation ur preferences for the long run tend to conflict with our short run behavior when planning for the long run we intend to meet our deadlines exercise regularly and eat healthfully but in the short run we have little interest in revising manuscripts jogging on the stairmaster and skipping the chocolate souffleala mode delay of gratification is a nice long term goal but instant gratification is disconcertingly tempting this gap between long run intentions and short run actions is apparent across a wide range of behaviors including saving choices a 1997 survey found that 76 percent of respondents believe they should be saving more for retirement looking only at respondents who believed they were at an age where you should be seriously saving already the survey found that 55 percent reported being behind in their savings and only 6 percent reported being ahead farkas and johnson 1997 the report on the survey concluded t he gaps between people s atti tudes intentions and behavior are troubling and threaten increased insecurity and dissatisfaction for people when they retire americans are simply not doing what logic and their own reasoning suggests they should be doing a 1993 luntz webber merrill lynch survey found similar answers when baby boomers were asked what percentage of your annual household income do you think you should save for retirement and what percentage of your annual

changes in food purchases at retirement in france abstract we estimate the impact of retirement on food expenditure and food quantities purchased using detailed home scan panel data on food purchases and household characteristics in france we identify a causal relationship by exploiting the french legal minimum age for retirement as an exogenous shock to retirement behavior upon retirement households significantly decrease their expenditure on food and the amount of food purchased households with lower pre retirement income appear to be more severely affected our results indicate that the decrease in food quantities purchased at the aggregate level is driven by a decline in purchases of food from animal origins a reduced consumption of animal based food products is likely to undermine the diet balance of retirees

consumption in the shadow of unemployment abstract by how much do employed households reduce their consumption when the aggregate unemployment rate rises in spain during the great recession a one point increase in the unemployment rate was related to a strong reduction in household consumption of more than 0 7 per equivalent adult this reduction is consistent with forward looking agents responding to downward revisions of their expectations on future income growth rates the shadow of unemployment using consumption panel data that include information on physical quantities we show that the drop in consumption expenditure was truly a reduction in quantities and not a switch to cheaper alternatives

a probabilistic choice model for market segmentation and elasticity structure marketing scholars commonly characterize market structure by studying the patterns of substitution implied by brand switching though the approach is useful it typically ignores the destabilizing

tunneling or not the change of legal environment on the effect of post privatization performance motivated by hoff and stiglitz s am econ rev 94 3 753 763 2004 theory we examine empirically how the creation of rules of the game affect the behavior of economic agents in a transition economy using a sample of chinese state owned enterprises in which controlling ownership was transferred to private acquirers between 1994 and 2006 we find that the post privatization performance ppp of firms depends on institutional factors before 2003 we observe severe post privatization tunneling behaviors by acquirers and worse ppp however from 2003 when the state issued regulations against tunneling and strengthened enforcement the incidence of tunneling behaviors declined and ppp improved we find that better implementation of ownership transfer and longer prior experience of private acquirers are key factors that contribute to the improvement

consumption income and retirement the authors use canadian family expenditure survey data to estimate consumption and income age profiles for married couple families paying attention to the transition between work and retirement the common presumptions of numerical simulation life cycle models upward sloping consumption age profiles and dissaving in retirement are not supported there is some evidence that the consumption of certain blue collar households declines discontinuously near retirement which casts doubt upon the frequently encountered assumption that the marginal utility of consumption is independent of the quantity of leisure consumed the results also imply that the functional form of euler equations should be sufficiently flexible to permit preretirement consumption to have an inverted u shape in addition the paper shows that the uncertain lifetime model with the addition of a bequest motive can rationalize the empirical results

on the recoverability of choice behaviors with random coefficients choice models in the context of limited data and unobserved effects random coefficients choice models are seeing widespread adoption in marketing research partly because of their ability to generate household level parameter estimates with limited data however the power of such models may tempt researchers to trust that they continue to produce reasonable estimates when in fact either model misspecification or insufficient data limits the models ability to recover household level parameters successfully if household level choice behaviors are not recovered successfully managerial decisions such as marketing mix planning and targeting direct marketing segmentation and forecasting may not produce the desired results this study addresses the following questions first can random coefficients choice models correctly identify markets characterized by preference and response heterogeneity state dependence the use of alternative decision heuristics that result in reduced choice sets and combinations of these effects if so how much data is required and is this realistic given the size of data sets typically used in marketing analyses which model selection criteria should be used to identify these markets when there is spurious market identification which parameters contribute to the spurious result an extensive simulation experiment is conducted wherein random coefficients logit models with varying specifications of parameter heterogeneity state dependence effects and choice set heterogeneity are applied to 128 experimental conditions the results show which types of markets can be identified reliably and which cannot based on the results of the simulation the authors develop a model selection heuristic that identifies the correct market in 81 of the experimental conditions in contrast strict application of the best model selection criterion alone results in correct market identification in at most 34 of experimental conditions interestingly we find that the amount of data number of households or number of purchases per household does not affect our ability to identify the correct market type with this heuristic so there is a good chance of identifying the correct market type even when little data is available

total work time in spain evidence from time diary data using detailed time use data from 2002 03 and 2009 10 for spain we analyse changes in the time allocation decisions of the spanish population with a focus on the time devoted to total work consistent with prior literature we document that the concept of iso work e g the time devoted to total work by gender is equal does not hold in societies with stringent gender roles such as spain women devote more time to total work than men and this difference has increased throughout the period studied by 2 hours per week the relative increase in total work for women compared to men can be explained by a relative increase in market work of 8 hours per week coupled with a relative decrease in nonmarket work of 6 hours per week which have led spanish women to devote relatively 2 fewer hours to leisure per week in 2009 10 compared to 2002 03 we propose social norms as a potential explanation of these empirical findings by uncovering how individuals allocate their time inside and outside the market ov

the response of expenditures to anticipated income changes panel data estimates standard models of intertemporal allocation predict that the time path of expenditures should be independent of the time path of income recently two papers parker 1999 and souleles 1999 have suggested that u s households have a high marginal propensity to spend within year anticipated income changes we use an expenditure survey panel from spain to re examine this issue we exploit two important features of the spanish data first we have quarterly panel data that follows households for more than four quarters second we use the fact that workers are exogenously sorted into one of two payment schemes some receive the same amount each month of the year and others receive an extra payment in june and december the extra payment is large and predictable we examine the detailed pattern of expenditures over the year to see whether they differ between the two groups we fail to find even weak differences we complement this with a conventional euler equation analysis of excess sensitivity our predicting equation for quarterly earnings growth is much better than usual and is likely to give a powerful test of the hypothesis that predictable changes in income do not lead to changes in expenditure patterns the results of this analysis confirm the graphical analysis we find no evidence of excess sensitivity we conclude that households in normal times do smooth consumption over the year we suggest a reconciliation of our results with those of parker and souleles

the retirement consumption puzzle a marital bargaining approach abstract evidence from several countries reveals a substantial drop in household consumption around the age of retirement that is difficult to explain with life cycle models using food consumption data from more than 550 households from the panel study of income dynamics for the years 1979 1986 and 1989 1992 we find that married couple households decrease their expenditures on both food consumed at home and away from home by about 9 following the retirement of the male household head no significant decrease in consumption is found for single households either in a sample of males or a pooled sample of single males and females these results are consistent with a model of marital bargaining in which wives prefer to save more than their husbands do to support an expected longer retirement period and relative control over household decisions is affected by control over market income the pattern of the consumption decline which is increasing in the age gap between husband and wife lends further support to this interpretation

a quantitative analysis of chinese industrial structure and technological change production functions for aggregate industry sectoral industries and small scale industry in this study we estimate the chinese aggregate sectoral and small scale industrial production functions based of three models the ces 1 ces 2 and cobb douglas production functions testing the estimated results we find that the cobb douglas production function is the appropriate functional form for underlying chinese industrial struture the study indicates some serious structural and technological problems such as decreasing returns to scale unitary substitution between labour and capital slow technical progress and low economic efficienty the findings suggest that an intensive industrial development policy should be pursued in china

is there a retirement savings puzzle in this paper we ask whether households are saving enough for their retirement we use data on income expenditure and expenditure components to analyse patterns of behaviour at and around the time of retirement for successive date of birth cohorts we compare periods of unemployment to periods of retirement and separate expenditures into categories reflecting work related expenditures basic necessities and other goods we find that income typically falls by more at unemployment than retirement but the reverse is true for expenditure we observe falls in expenditure at retirement for all expenditure categories using a stochastic life cycle model including mortality rates we assess the anticipated impact of retirement on consumption against that of unemployment the inter relationship between goods and leisure explains a large part of the persistent fall in expenditure at retirement we argue that the only way in which the life cycle hypothesis could be reconciled with the remaining unanticipated dip in consumption would be with the systematic arrival of unexpected adverse information at the time of retirement

consumption during retirement the missing link in the life cycle this study presents the first evidence on the relation of consumption to lifetime wealth based on data from the 1973 and 1975 retirement history survey that have been linked to social security earnings records nearly 500 white married fully retired couples ages 62 69 form the basis of the analysis on average their consumption early in retirement exceeds by 14 percent the income that their financial pension and social security wealth can generate this implies that their saving both private and through social security is insufficient to sustain consumption throughout the rest of their lives additional evidence based on changes in spending between 1973 and 1975 shows that these households respond by reducing their real consumption at a rate sufficient to generate positive changes in net financial worth within a few years after retirement these two pieces of evidence can be rationalized by a rate of time preference much higher than the interest rate coupled with either a bequest motive or uncertainty about the length of life they also imply that even when combined with private pensions and savings social security in the united states today does not enable most recipients to maintain their living standard at the levels they enjoyed before they retired this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

life cycle prices and production we use scanner data and time diaries to document how households substitute time for money through shopping and home production we document substantial heterogeneity in prices paid for identical goods for the same area and time with older households shopping the most and paying the lowest prices doubling shopping frequency lowers a good s price by 7 to 10 percent we estimate the shopper s price of time and use this series to estimate an elasticity of substitution between time and goods in home production of roughly 1 8 the observed life cycle time allocation implies a consumption series that differs markedly from expenditures

government policies market imperfections and foreign direct investment the internalization eclectic theory of foreign direct investment includes the important insight that government policies create market imperfections which make foreign direct investment an economically rational strategic alternative for firms this paper reexamines the effects of government policies on market imperfections and foreign direct investment fdi it broadens and refines the analysis of the impact of government policies by developing the following arguments 1 there is a wide range of government policies that affect firms fdi decisions via their effects on market imperfections 2 there are numerous dimensions of variability in government policies that need to be identified in order to understand fully the effects of government policies on market imperfections and hence fdi flows 3 some of the effects of government policies on market imperfections and fdi are the opposite of those previously noted in the fdi literature 4 the effects of government policies vary across the several individual components of fdi flows the paper thus examines the following variables and relationships more extensively and precisely than has the previous literature government policy variables as causal factors affecting fdi market imperfection variables as intervening factors in the causal connections between government policies and fdi and the multiple indicators of the various dimensions of fdi as dependent variables

partner selection and venturing success the case of joint ventures with firms in the people s republic of china it has been hypothesized in the international joint venture ijv literature that partner selection affects interpartner fit which in turn influences a synergistic effect on ijv performance this study investigates the relationship between ijv success and the strategic and organizational traits of local partners we address this issue in the context of an emerging economy p r china newly emerging economies have in recent years become major hosts of direct investment by multinational corporations mncs because these rapidly expanding economies characterized by an exploding demand previously stifled by ideologically based government intervention provide tremendous opportunities which mncs can preempt mncs in such economies however face the challenges of structural reform weak market structure poorly specified property rights and institutional uncertainty right local partners can help mncs boost market expansion obtain insightful information mitigate operational risks and provide country specific knowledge the analysis of the data obtained from china suggests that both strategic and organizational traits of local partners are significantly associated with some individual dimensions of ijv performance among strategic traits absorptive capacity product relatedness and market power are favorable to ijvs market and financial outcomes market power and experience significantly reduce ijvs operational uncertainties of organizational traits international experience and organizational collaboration are important for ijvs not only profitability and stability but also local market expansion and export growth organizational form and size influence ijvs local market performance the findings provided by this study can help mncs determine what criteria they should use in opting for local partners and what criteria are vital to their goal accomplishment those investors seeking local market expansion should select those local partners that have rich market experience superior market position high absorptive capacity and related product diversification with the ijvs those seeking profitability and stability should select local firms that have superior international experience longer organizational collaboration and greater market power while mncs should use appropriate strategic and organizational criteria to select local partners the host government or local firms can try to make these traits available to attract more stable and profitable foreign direct investment

investigating heterogeneity in brand preferences in logit models for panel data in analyzing panel data the issue of heterogeneity across households is an important consideration if heterogeneity is present but is ignored in the analysis it will result in biased and inconsi

domestic alliance network to attract foreign partners evidence from international joint ventures in china partner selection is a critical issue in building international joint ventures ijvs we argue that foreign firms are more likely to select local firms with unique network structural advantages within a local alliance network we frame structural advantages as two network position traits centrality and brokerage specifically network centrality acts as a stronger network trait than brokerage in attracting foreign ijv partners however such a relationship may be moderated by foreign firms local experience and perceived capabilities we contend that when foreign firms have a high level of local market experience and perceived capabilities they may prefer a local broker over a centrally located local firm data on the domestic alliance network in china s electronics and information technology it industries largely support our hypotheses we conclude that as foreign investors become strategic insiders they may not only seek a local partner s capability attributes but also more critically pay attention to a local partner s domestic network

strategic determinants of partner selection criteria in international joint ventures prior studies are vague regarding determinants of criteria for selecting complementary partners for international joint ventures ijvs this paper first distinguishes task and partner related dimensions of selection criteria the paper then argues that relative importance of task related selection criteria is determined by the strategic context of the proposed ijv and the parent firm specifically the critical success factors of the venture s competitive environment and the parent s static and dynamic position vis a vis these factors

informal institutions and absorptive capacity a cross country meta analytic study the informal institutions construct has not been well understood in prior research we contribute to the informal institutions literature by developing a generalized two by two conceptualization of institutions that juxtapose the dimension of behavioral uncertainty versus environmental uncertainty and the dimension of informal institutions versus formal institutions in particular we theorize informal institutions based on the extent to which they reduce behavioral uncertainty or environmental uncertainty as well as their alignment with the formal institutional environment with respect to the two types of uncertainty leveraging this fourfold typology we shed new light on the importance of informal institutional conditions in theories of firms absorptive capacity and performance using a cross country meta analytical approach we find that a firm s absorptive capacity is more positively related to performance outcomes in countries with informal institutions that reduce behavioral uncertainty and environmental uncertainty furthermore the misalignment between informal and formal institutions with respect to behavioral uncertainty and environmental uncertainty weakens the relationship between absorptive capacity and performance outcomes overall by re emphasizing the fundamental role of informal institutions in reducing behavioral and environmental uncertainties our typology offers a fine grained perspective to conceptualize informal institutions and constitutes an opportunity to advance theory in informal institutions and international business

host country policies and mne management control in ijvs evidence from china in international joint ventures ijvs partner firms exert three types of management control output process and social since management control critically influences ijv success it is essential to understand what factors drive the development of the control system prior studies have focused mainly on ijvs internal conditions and have largely neglected external institutional influences on ijv control in this study we explore how host country policies affect mne partners control over their ijvs using a sample of ijvs in china we find that mne partners tend to exercise less output and process control when minority equity restriction is present greater process control when they receive government incentives and less social control when they are required to partner with state owned enterprises in contrast the results of a post hoc analysis show that local partners control activities are not significantly influenced by these policies our findings provide new insights into ijv management by demonstrating the impacts of regulatory institutions on partners control activities

choice map inferring a product market map from panel data this paper describes choice map a model that infers a product market map from panel data choice map is a stochastic brand choice model a random utility quantal choice model and a multidimensional scaling procedure choice map combines the parsimony of stochastic choice models the rationale of random utility models and the ability of multidimensional scaling procedures to simultaneously infer both brand positions and consumer preferences from preference choice data choice map assumes that consumers have stationary purchase probabilities for the observational period which makes the model best suited to frequently bought mature product categories neither experimental nor survey data are required traditional mapping methods that scale such data may not yield the same structure for low involvement products as will a procedure like choice map that scales behavioral data choice map s descriptive and predictive validity exceeds that of an alternative stochastic brand choice model the dirichlet multinomial for a test data set

the early development of intellectual property institutions in the united states the u s was a pioneer in establishing the world s first modern intellectual property system that system was distinguished by the provision of broad access to and strict enforcement of property rights in new inventions coupled with the requirement of public disclosure and it was effective at stimulating the growth of a market for technology and technical change more generally far from being static fundamental modifications were introduced over time in response to changing circumstances that such adjustments so often proved to be constructive owes partly to a private market being a central feature of the system and partly to the democratic structure of u s institutions

performance and survival of joint ventures with non conventional ownership structures the international joint venture jv literature has focused on two parent jvs formed between one foreign and one local firm yet other types of jvs exist this paper identifies four distinct forms of jvs based on the jv partners nationality and equity affiliation these are i jvs that are formed between affiliated home country based firms ii jvs that are formed between unaffiliated home country based firmsl iii jvs that are formed between home country based and local firms and iv jvs that are formed between home country and third country based firms our analysis of 737 japanese jvs in asia demonstrates that the conventionally assumed form of jv represented only 30 percent of the total further each of the four jv forms significantly differed in terms of incidence performance and survival likelihood

future preference uncertainty and diversification the role of temporal stochastic inflation consumers choices tend to display greater variety when made for future versus immediate consumption previous accounts of such diversification differences suggested that they are driven primarily by deterministic shifts in underlying preference through a series of simulation studies we propose and assess an alternative contributory mechanism temporal stochastic inflation the greater uncertainty typifying choices made for the future we find effect sizes to be strongly influenced by relative brand attractiveness brand attractiveness uncertainty and degree of stochastic inflation although not preference heterogeneity moreover effect sizes are consistent with prior studies that attributed diversification differences to underlying preference shifts alone

parameter bias from unobserved effects in the multinomial logit model of consumer choice abstract over the past two decades validation of choice models has focused on predictive validity rather than parameter bias in real world validation of choice models true parameter values are unknown so examination of parameter bias is not possible in contrast the main focus of this study is parameter bias in simulated scanner panel choice data with known parameter values study of parameter bias enables the assessment of a fundamental issue not addressed in the choice modeling literature the extent to which the logit choice model is capable of distinguishing unobserved effects that give rise to persistence in observed choices e g heterogeneity and state dependence although econometric theory provides some information about the causes of bias the extent of such bias in typical scanner data applications remains unclear the authors present an extensive simulation study that provides information on the extent of bias resulting from the misspecification of four unobserved effects that receive fr

an empirical comparison of logit choice models with discrete versus continuous representations of heterogeneity abstract currently there is an important debate about the relative merits of models with discrete and continuous representations of consumer heterogeneity in a recent jmr study andrews ansari and currim 2002 hereafter aac compared metric conjoint analysis models with discrete and continuous representations of heterogeneity and found no differences between the two models with respect to parameter recovery and prediction of ratings for holdout profiles models with continuous representations of heterogeneity fit the data better than models with discrete representations of heterogeneity the goal of the current study is to compare the relative performance of logit choice models with discrete versus continuous representations of heterogeneity in terms of the accuracy of household level parameters fit and forecasting accuracy to accomplish this goal the authors conduct an extensive simulation experiment with logit models in a scanner data context using an experimental design based on aac and other

growth efficiency and convergence in china s state and collective industry in china as in the soviet union and eastern europe economic reform initiatives seek to increase productivity by introducing elements of market oriented policies and institutions into an economy formerly dominated by state planning efforts to evaluate the impact of reform of chinese industry have focused on the measurement of productivity change in state enterprises this study expands the prior framework of analysis in several directions our investigation of productivity trends is not limited to state enterprises but includes quantitative comparisons with china s fast growing collective industries which contributed 36 of overall industrial output in 1988 1 unlike previous studies our analysis works with gross rather than net output this permits us to investigate changes in the productivity of intermediate inputs which occupy a large portion of total costs in chinese industry as well as labor and capital to do this we develop a quasi frontier estimation procedure which seems appropriate for comparisons of total factor productivity based on chinese industrial data finally we offer a quantitative perspective on the extent to which reform efforts have moved industrial resource allocation toward patterns expected of a market system the analysis confirms our previous finding based on a restricted framework employing only labor fixed capital and net output that multifactor productivity in state industry has risen substantially during

consumption and habits evidence from panel data the purpose of this paper is to test for the presence of habit formation in consumption decisions using household panel data we use the test proposed by meghir and weber 1996 and estimate the within period marginal rate of substitution between commodities which is robust to the presence of liquidity constraints to that end we use a spanish panel data set in which households are observed up to eight consecutive quarters this temporal dimension is crucial since it allows us to take into account time invariant unobserved heterogeneity across households fixed effects and therefore to investigate if the relationship between current and past consumption reflects habits or heterogeneity our results confirm the importance of accounting for fixed effects when analyzing intertemporal consumption decisions allowing for time non separabilities once fixed effects are controlled for and a proper set of instruments is used the results yield supporting evidence of habit formation in the demand system of food at home transport and services

timing of investment and international expansion performance in china this study examines the multivariate and univariate performance effects of timing of fdi in an emerging economy at the business unit level a longitudinal analysis of industry wide firm specific data on fdi timing and foreign venture performance in china reveals that timing has a significant influence on overall as well as on individual aspects of venture performance it is observed that early entrants outperform late movers in terms of local market expansion and asset turnover whereas late movers are superior to early entrants with regard to risk reduction and accounting return during the initial period of international expansion factor analysis confirms that the importance of timing in affecting fdi decisions is as significant as that of internalization ownership or location factors

interfirm diversity organizational learning and longevity in global strategic alliances organizational theorists have correctly argued that the emergence and maintenance of robust cooperation between global strategic alliance partners is related to the diversity in the partners characteristics yet previous research has failed to systematically delineate the important dimensions of interfirm diversity and integrate the dimensions into a unified framework of analysis this paper develops a multilevel typology of interfirm diversity and focuses on organizational learning and adaptation as critical processes that dynamically moderate diversity s impact on alliance longevity and effectiveness

modeling multiple sources of heterogeneity in multinomial logit models methodological and managerial issues we offer a framework to specify and estimate various sources of heterogeneity in multinomial logit brand choice models we let each brand specific intercept and each parameter of the explanatory variable vector vary randomly across households in addition we distinguish loyal households from the rest our results suggest that incorporating multiple sources of heterogeneity improves the model fit and suggests higher impact of marketing mix elements on brand choice we highlight the importance of incorporating multiple sources of heterogeneity the model we implement yields valuable managerial insights

on the future of international joint venture research international joint ventures ijvs are an important type of international strategic alliance isa and have been studied by scholars for decades resulting in a plethora of empirical studies publications and reviews yet an inadequate accumulation of knowledge exists as a closer look reveals much more than providing a summary and critical assessment of past contributions this paper develops an expansive research agenda based upon a deep understanding of past research and comprehensive frameworks that distill this research we identify a number of research opportunities that would not only advance ijv research but also closely related literatures and disciplines such as isas theories of the multinational firm international business research and strategic management

equity joint ventures and theory of the multinational enterprise this paper extends the internalization approach to the theory of the multinational enterprise mne to include an expanded role for equity joint ventures using the transaction cost paradigm of williamson this paper explains why joint ventures may sometimes be preferred over wholly owned subsidiaries also presented is empirical work on joint venture performance in developing countries which demonstrates that under certain conditions joint ventures can be the optimal mode of foreign direct investment 1987 jibs journal of international business studies 1987 18 1 16

changes in consumption at retirement evidence from panel data abstract previous empirical literature has found a sharp decline in consumption during the first years of retirement implying that individuals do not save enough for their retirement this phenomenon is called the retirement consumption puzzle we find no evidence of the retirement consumption puzzle using panel data from 1980 to 2000 consumption is defined as nondurable expenditure a more comprehensive measure than only food used in many of the previous studies we find that food expenditure declines at retirement which is consistent with previous studies

diversification and the risk return trade off the article presents information on a study which investigated the risk return trade off at the level of individual firms with both accounting and market based measures of risk the author describe

combining discrete and continuous representations of preference heterogeneity a latent class approach unobserved preference heterogeneity has been widely recognized as a critical issue not only for modelling choice behaviour but also for policy analysis this paper examines alternative approaches for incorporating heterogeneity in recreational demand we apply a hybrid model combining discrete and continuous heterogeneity representations of tastes to capture the defining features of both the latent class and the random parameter logit specifications this model allows for the joint estimation of discrete segments and within segment heterogeneity providing a richer interpretation of preference heterogeneity a database of recreational trips to forest sites in mallorca has been used to compare the empirical performance of this hybrid approach with common specifications such as the conditional logit the random parameter logit and the latent class model

multiparty cooperation and performance in international equity joint ventures previous studies have examined the relationship between cooperation and performance in international equity joint ventures ejvs mostly at the partner level this study revisits the issue at multiple levels and considers vertical and horizontal cooperation among the foreign partners the local partner and the venture management team the study also examines how goal incongruence between partners and market uncertainty affect the tripartite relationships between cooperation and performance the test results show a strong positive impact of cooperation between partners on performance as perceived both by the partners and by the venture management team one partner s cooperation with the venture management team is perceived favorably by that party but not necessarily by the other party unless both partners share the same goal market uncertainty requires stronger cooperation at all levels to improve performance in ejvs

the retirement consumption puzzle in china abstract using data from china s urban household survey and exploiting china s mandatory retirement policy we use the regression discontinuity approach to estimate the impact of retirement on household expenditures retirement reduces total non durable expenditures by 20 percent among the categories of non durable expenditures retirement reduces work related expenditures and expenditures on food consumed at home but has an insignificant effect on entertainment expenditures after excluding these three components retirement does not have an effect on the remaining non durable expenditures it suggests that the retirement consumption puzzle might not be a puzzle if a life cycle model with home production is considered

the contingent effect of state participation on the dissolution of international joint ventures a resource dependence approach we adopt a resource dependence approach to explain the effect of state participation on the dissolution of international joint ventures ijvs while resource dependence theory rdt has been used to explain the formation of ijvs we propose an extension of the theory to explain their dissolution we do so by highlighting the match between foreign firms resource needs resource hierarchy and the resource provision roles of state controlled vs private local partners resource profiles we further argue that the effect of state participation on the dissolution of ijvs is moderated by foreign firms host country experience and ijv age we test our hypotheses by using data on 623 ijvs in china our results show that state participation reduces the risk of ijv dissolution and that the strength of this effect differs depending on the type of state controlled actor that is involved in an ijv we also find that host country experience and ijv age moderate the effect of state participation on ijv dissolution these findings enhance our understanding of ijv dissolution and contribute to the development of rdt

the retirement consumption puzzle evidence from a regression discontinuity approach in this paper we investigate the size of the consumption drop at retirement in italy we use micro data on food and total non durable household spending covering the period 1993 2004 and evaluate the change in consumption that accompanies retirement by exploiting the exogenous variability in pension eligibility to correct for the endogenous nature of the retirement decision we take a regression discontinuity design approach and make the identifying assumption that consumption would be the same around the threshold for pension eligibility if individuals would not retire we check in our data that a non negligible fraction of individuals retire as soon as they become eligible and estimate at 9 8 the part of the non durable consumption drop that is associated with retirement induced by eligibility we show that such fall is not driven by liquidity problems for the less well off in the population and can be accounted for by drops in goods that are work related expenses or leisure substitutes however we also show that retirement induces a significant drop in the number of grown children living with their parents and this can account for most of the retirement consumption drop

equity joint ventures and the theory of the multinational enterprise this paper extends the internalization approach to the theory of the multinational enterprise mne to include an expanded role for equity joint ventures using the transaction cost paradigm of williamson this paper explains why joint ventures may sometimes be preferred over wholly owned subsidiaries also presented is empirical work on joint venture performance in developing countries which demonstrates that under certain conditions joint ventures can be the optimal mode of foreign direct investment

why does consumption fall at retirement evidence from germany abstract analyzing the consumption behavior over retirement in germany this paper finds a negative correlation between income replacement and the increase in home production related activities this might reconcile the observed drop in consumption at retirement with the predictions of the standard life cycle model however since individuals with fairly stable income over retirement also increase home production this increase cannot be entirely attributed to a substitution effect

chinese industrial reform accomplishments prospects and implications why has china grown so fast when conditions thought to be necessary for growth were absent nowhere is this dissonance greater than in china s industrial sector which has recorded big gains in output employment and exports in the absence of privatization effective bankruptcy legislation and other policy innovations widely seen as prerequisites for successful reform this essay reviews the accomplishments of chinese industry since the start of reform in 1978 focusing on the internal dynamics of the development process considers the future of partial reform and discusses the implications of china s industrial reform experience

a dynamic analysis of market structure based on panel data internal market structure analysis infers brand positions in an attribute space from preference and choice data given a market in which consumers have heterogeneous tastes for attributes previous market structure models have adopted a static framework e g elrod 1988 chintagunta 1994 elrod and keane 1995 furthermore they assumed that consumer perceptions of brand attributes do not vary across consumers yet these approaches may render inaccurate representations of market structure if there is state dependence in consumer choice behavior this paper attempts to incorporate consumer choice dynamics into market structure models by specifying the source of choice dynamics explicitly in particular the process by which past purchases affect current choices is modeled in a framework which captures both consumer habit persistence and variety seeking behavior more specifically consumer preferences for brand attributes are modeled to depend on the attributes of brands bought on the previous purchase occasion furthermore the modeling approach adopted incorporates heterogeneity in both consumer preferences and perceptions of brand attributes the audience of this paper includes practitioners and academics interested in understanding consumer choice processes and inferring market structure from consumer choice data the proposed models are estimated on nielsen scanner panel data for margarine peanut butter yogurt and liquid detergent using simulated maximum likelihood techniques the empirical results suggest that accounting for choice dynamics improves both in sample and out of sample fit the results indicate that the average consumer is habit persistent in all the product categories studied this result is consistent with the findings of kannan and sanchez 1994 who conducted an aggregate analysis of consumer variety seeking behavior across product categories however the results obtained in this paper suggest that consumers are heterogeneous with respect to the processes by which past purchases affect current purchases these results provide strong evidence for habit persistence and variety seeking in brand attributes to be the behavioral source of consumer choice dynamics in food categories thus consumer tastes utility weights seem to be affected by the attributes of the brands consumed in the past given the empirical result that a large proportion of consumers are habit persistent this suggests that tastes are reinforced by the brand attributes consumed in the past the empirical results also show that not accounting for state dependence in market structure models for panel data may produce misleading results that is depending on consumer behavior patterns models that do not account for state dependence may distort the true nature of competition among brands more specifically the results confirm the expectation that if there is habit persistence that is if consumer tastes are reinforced by attributes of brands consumed in the past models that do not capture this choice dynamics will overestimate the distance between similar brands furthermore the policy experiments conducted suggest that 1 static models overestimate the short run impact of a price cut on the sales of the brand on promotion 2 price cuts hurt the sales of the more similar brands more and 3 free samples affect relatively less similar brands the most finally this paper studies variety seeking and habit persistence across brands over purchase occasions however variety seeking behavior may also involve the purchase of a portfolio of brands or items at a purchase occasion consumers may buy multiple items knowing that prior to the next trip they may want to consume different items simanson 1990 walsh 1995 this type of behavior can be modeled within the context of dynamic expected utility maximization with forward looking consumers the development and estimation of market structure models that include forward looking consumers who maximize expected utility over a planning horizon incorporating their future tastes and needs and shopping for an inventory of brands remain an important future research issue

winter is coming robert gordon and the future of economic growth this comment assesses the claim of the rise and fall of american growth that for coming decades growth in us tfp will continue the disappointing pace of the last decade while predicting future technological advance is difficult there are indications that gordon may actually be too optimistic on future tfp growth the share of output from manufacturing which still generates the majority of r d expenditures and has historically more rapid tfp growth will continue to fall there are substantial obstacles to rapid tfp advance in much of the rest of the economy construction transport health care and other services

dynamism capital structure and performance in a sub saharan economy extending the institutional difference hypothesis extant research examining the capital structure performance relationship has been undertaken primarily in developed economies these studies integrate agency theory considerations with the contingency perspective and suggest a positive interaction between sector dynamism equity and performance our study extends this research stream by examining the capital structure performance link in a sub saharan economy an underresearched but economically emerging region using logic undergirding a substantial stream of institutional theory based studies that we term the institutional difference hypothesis we argue that the implications of the capital structure performance relationship are contingent on the extent of national level institutional underdevelopment taking into account institutional differences between developed economies and those in the sub saharan region we hypothesize a negative interaction between sector dynamism equity and firm performance in sub sahara using longitudinal data from ghanaia

understanding the retirement consumption puzzle through the lens of food consumption fuzzy regression discontinuity evidence from urban china abstract this paper provides an understanding of the widely documented retirement consumption puzzle from the perspective of food consumption exploiting the mandatory retirement age cut off for public sector male employees in urban china to obtain a source of exogenous variation in their retirement status this paper identifies the causal impacts of retirement on four major aspects of their food consumption food expenditure time spent in food acquisition the quantity and quality of food consumed based on data from the china health and nutrition survey our fuzzy regression discontinuity analysis finds that consistent with the retirement consumption puzzle retirement reduces elderly males total food expenditure by 49 55 however retirement barely changes the quantity of food they consume measured by total calorie intakes further analysis suggests that elderly males substitute time for money in food acquisition upon retirement which helps to reconcile the differential impacts of retirement on food expenditure and food consumption finally retirement greatly changes elderly males diet structure they consume significantly less food with animal origins and thus less fat and protein and more grains and thus more carbohydrate upon retirement which undermines their diet balance by the standards provided by the chinese nutrition association

social ties and partner identification in sino hong kong international joint ventures partner identification is an important and under studied precursor to selection and eventual performance of international joint ventures ijvs the mechanics of the identification process were investigated in depth across a sample of eighteen sino hong kong ijvs using the case study research method the cross case findings of this exploratory investigation support the idea that social networks provide a valuable resource for reducing ijv partner search costs specifically the findings reveal that while weakly linked bridge ties are valuable in identifying potential partners searches based on strong ties tend to be shorter and provide a more robust basis for inter partner cooperation

the retirement consumption puzzle and involuntary early retirement evidence from the british household panel survey this article uses data from the british household panel survey bhps to shed further light on the fall in consumption at retirement the retirement consumption puzzle comparing food spending of men retiring involuntarily early through ill health or redundancy with spending of men who retire voluntarily it finds a significant fall in spending only for those who retire involuntarily this is consistent with the observed fall in spending being linked to a negative wealth shock for some retirees

observed and unobserved preference heterogeneity in brand choice models this paper extends the scanner based choice literature by explicitly incorporating individual level brand preference data we illustrate our model using a unique data set that combines survey and scanner data collected from the same individuals the addition of individual specific brand preference information significantly improves fit and prediction furthermore this observed heterogeneity better explains choice than does unobserved heterogeneity in the standard scanner model s parameters more importantly we find that the standard model underestimates the importance of consumers brand preferences and overestimates both brand loyalties and price sensitivities brand loyalty is overestimated because models without preference information confound state dependence heterogeneity and preference effects price sensitivities are inflated because the average preference based consumer is implicitly assumed to be more willing to switch from his preferred brand than is the real preference based consumer further standard models overestimate the heterogeneity in price and loyalty sensitivities and misidentify both price and loyalty sensitive consumers the managerial implications of our findings and the applicability of our methodology when survey data are collected infrequently and for only a subsample of consumers are pursued we demonstrate that even under these circumstances better populationwide pricing and promotion decisions are identified and more accurate targeting results

what accounts for the variation in retirement wealth among u s households even among households with similar socioeconomic characteristics saving and wealth vary considerably life cycle models attribute this variation to differences in time preference rates risk tolerance exposure to uncertainty relative tastes for work and leisure at advanced ages and income replacement rates these factors have testable implications concerning the relation between accumulated wealth and the shape of the consumption profile using the panel study of income dynamics and the consumer expenditure survey we find little support for these implications the data are instead consistent with rule of thumb mental accounting or hyperbolic discounting theories of wealth accumulation jel di d91 e21

time to cook expenditure at retirement in spain detailed panel expenditure data from spain reveal little evidence of a retirement consumption puzzle in 1985 2004 there is a drop in food at home expenditure in the later years of the sample along with evidence of households paying lower prices for the food they purchase after retirement however our findings are consistent with a model that allows for home production as long as one accounts for the greater participation in housework by men after retirement coinciding with this latter period our work adds to the evidence from several countries and helps in reconciling the retirement consumption puzzle with life cycle models

reality check combining choice experiments with market data to estimate the importance of product attributes discrete choice models estimated using hypothetical choices made in a survey setting i e choice experiments are widely used to estimate the importance of product attributes in order to make product design and marketing mix decisions choice experiments allow the researcher to estimate preferences for product features that do not yet exist in the market however parameters estimated from experimental data often show marked inconsistencies with those inferred from the market reducing their usefulness in forecasting and decision making we propose an approach for combining choice based conjoint data with individual level purchase data to produce estimates that are more consistent with the market unlike prior approaches for calibrating conjoint models so that they correctly predict aggregate market shares for a baseline market the proposed approach is designed to produce parameters that are more consistent with those that can be inferred from individual level market data the proposed method relies on a new general framework for combining two or more sources of individual level choice data to estimate a hierarchical discrete choice model past approaches to combining choice data assume that the population mean for the parameters is the same across both data sets and require that data sets are sampled from the same population in contrast we incorporate in the model individual characteristic variables and assert only that the mapping between individuals characteristics and their preferences is the same across the data sets this allows the model to be applied even if the sample of individuals observed in each data set is not representative of the population as a whole so long as appropriate product use variables are collected that can explain the systematic deviations between them the framework also explicitly incorporates a model for the individual characteristics which allows us to use bayesian missing data techniques to handle the situation where each data set contains different demographic variables this makes the method useful in practice for a wide range of existing market and conjoint data sets we apply the method to a set of conjoint and market data for minivan choice and find that the proposed method predicts holdout market choices better than a model estimated from conjoint data alone or a model that does not include demographic variables

developed country mnes investing in developing economies progress and prospect this study reviews research from 1970 through 2016 on developed country multinational enterprises dmnes entering and competing in developing economies to identify the current state of knowledge of this research and push it further we review the literature using bibliometric and qualitative content analyses covering leading journals and books we articulate frontier issues that are understudied yet critical to both theorization and practice of dmnes in developing economies we discuss the findings and conclusions from prior research along five key areas 1 entering developing economies 2 organizing local activities 3 managing alliances and joint ventures 4 competing in dynamic environments and 5 dealing with institutions governments and society we offer prospective insights into future agenda that have important implications for mne strategies and decisions and propose frontier directions that encompass strategic localization reverse transfer and adaptation co evolution with local business ecosystems reorganizing and restructuring and strategic responses to institutional and market complexity

environmental risks and joint venture sharing arrangements multinational enterprises mnes have responded to the open door policies of socialist countries in recent years by investing in their economies through joint ventures mnes must formulate their investment strategies to control and manage the environmental risks peculiar to a traditional centrally planned economy cpe in which contextual and transactional environments are blurred joint venture sharing arrangements may be structured to control exposures to uncertainties and to align the interests of transactional parties mostly state owned enterprises to those of the venture this study tests the hypothesis that a foreign investor s share in a joint venture in a cpe is inversely correlated with 1 the amount of uncertainties and risks and 2 the external dependency of the venture on the contextual and transactional relationships of the host country the hypothesis is supported by empirical evidence from data on american joint ventures in china

the value of purchase history data in target marketing an important aspect of marketing practice is the targeting of consumer segments for differential promotional activity the premise of this activity is that there exist distinct segments of homogeneous consumers who can be identified by readily available demographic information the increased availability of individual consumer panel data open the possibility of direct targeting of individual households the goal of this paper is to assess the information content of various information sets available for direct marketing purposes information on the consumer is obtained from the current and past purchase history as well as demographic characteristics we consider the situation in which the marketer may have access to a reasonably long purchase history which includes both the products purchased and information on the causal environment short of this complete purchase history we also consider more limited information sets which consist of only the current purchase occasion or only information on past product choice without causal variables proper evaluation of this information requires a flexible model of heterogeneity which can accommodate observable and unobservable heterogeneity as well as produce household level inferences for targeting purposes we develop new econometric methods to implement a random coefficient choice model in which the heterogeneity distribution is related to observable demographics we couple this approach to modeling heterogeneity with a target couponing problem in which coupons are customized to specific households on the basis of various information sets the couponing problem allows us to place a monetary value on the information sets our results indicate there exists a tremendous potential for improving the profitability of direct marketing efforts by more fully utilizing household purchase histories even rather short purchase histories can produce a net gain in revenue from target couponing which is 2 5 times the gain from blanket couponing the most popular current electronic couponing trigger strategy uses only one observation to customize the delivery of coupons surprisingly even the information contained in observing one purchase occasion boasts net couponing revenue by 50 more than that which would be gained by the blanket strategy this result coupled with increased competitive pressures will force targeted marketing strategies to become much more prevalent in the future than they are today

willingness to pay estimation with choice based conjoint analysis addressing extreme response behavior with individually adapted designs the increasing consideration of behavioral aspects in operations management models has prompted greater use of choice based conjoint cbc studies in operations research such studies can elicit consumers willingness to pay wtp a core input for many optimization models however optimization models can yield valid results only if consumers wtp is estimated accurately a simulation study and two field studies show that extreme response behavior in cbc studies such that consumers always or never choose the no purchase option harms the validity of wtp estimates reporting the share of consumers who always and never select the no purchase option allows for detecting extreme response behavior this study suggests an individually adapted design that avoids extreme response behavior and thus significantly improves wtp estimation accuracy

local governments as industrial firms an organizational analysis of china s transitional economy despite widespread skepticism about government ownership in transitional economies china s rapid industrial growth has been led by public enterprises kornai s theory of soft budbet constraints born of the failure of earlier hungarian reforms fosters such skepticism but it assumes as fixed organizational characteristics that in fact vary widely across government jurisdictions local governments with smaller industrial bases have clearer financial incentives and constraints fewer nonfinancial interests in enterprises and a greater capacity to monitor them in china s vast public sector the fastest growth in output and productivity has occurred where government ownership rights are clearest and most easily enforced which enables officials to manage public industry as a diversified market oriented firm

adaptive learning in international business building on daniel levinthal s seminal theories on learning adaptation and innovation this article elucidates an adaptive view of organizational learning undertaken by multinational enterprises mnes levinthal s perspectives have tremendous implications for theorizing and examining processes pathways and mechanisms of dynamic learning for mnes competing in a complex environment this article extends these perspectives considering unique organizational traits and environmental characteristics facing mnes for a more nuanced understanding of contexts in which adaptive learning creates global competitive advantage discussion also includes levinthal s perspectives that are not yet adequately extended to but valuable for ib research such as learning mindfulness cognitive search organizational architecture for adaptation and co evolution with technological change we offer additional research questions as well as possible solutions to adaptive learning for international business

organizational processes to meet new performance criteria chinese pharmaceutical firms in transition abstract the current crisis in china s state owned enterprises presents a paradox of performance since reforms began in the early 1980s many state owned enterprises are producing and selling more some even reporting increasing profits recent discussions of the crisis facing these firms however reveal that most of the gains in these performance outcomes has been achieved without regard for efficiency in many cases simply by increasing inputs only now has the government explicitly recognized the need to shift emphasis from measures of performance based on scale whether output sales or profits to those incorporating considerations of efficiency return on output sales and assets we investigate the managerial and policy implications of such a shift in key performance criteria using longitudinal data on 66 chinese pharmaceutical manufacturers we find that both the level and growth in physical assets are the strongest correlates of scale based performance measures in contrast activities which bring in engineering skills lead to new product development and increase the proportion of output that is actually sold are the strongest correlates of efficiency based performance measures for managers and policymakers these results have important implications for the timing and level of investment in particular organizational activities and resources

economic crisis and the unemployment effect on household food expenditure the case of spain this paper examines the unemployment effect on food expenditure uefe for spanish households and quantifies its magnitude in boom and crisis periods the results show that the uefe was negative in both contexts but was reinforced during the economic crisis applying propensity score matching and difference in differences techniques to a sample of spanish households for 2006 and 2013 representative of a boom period and a crisis period respectively we found that the uefe amounted to 2 9 in the boom period and to 4 5 in the crisis period quantile difference in differences estimates confirmed that the economic crisis enhanced the uefe for spanish households with this effect decreasing continuously up to quantile 0 9 the uefe was exacerbated mainly in those economically disadvantaged households

female employment and occupational changes in the 1990s how is the eu performing relative to the us abstract this paper provides a comparison of the incidence and composition of female employment both in the eu and in the us despite a significant increase in female labour market participation in the eu about 50 of the difference between the employment rates in the us and the eu can still be attributed to differences in the educational attainments and the employment rates of women aged 25 54 we highlight the main features of female employment in both areas paying particular attention to the differences across age cohorts and educational levels our main findings are as follows i the educational level of the eu female population is slowly converging to that of the us across age cohorts ii the employment rates of less educated women are much lower in the eu than in the us with the exceptions of the scandinavian countries even for women aged 25 34 and iii occupational segregation is lower for the younger highly educated women who seem to be entering more typically male occupations and less typically female occupations although at a higher rate in the us than in the eu

completing china s move to the market beginning in late 1978 by luck as much as design china arrived at a strategy for market oriented economic reform that combined substantial reform with rapid growth in gdp and exports the sequencing of reform began with the easy to reform sectors agriculture and foreign trade and then took up the more difficult task of reforming the large state owned enterprises with respect to agriculture small scale industry and foreign investment china found ways of introducing meaningful property rights into the increasingly marketized system a partially unreformed financial system and inadequate autonomy of large state enterprises accounts however for the current stop go nature of chinese development

is there a retirement consumption puzzle evidence using subjective retirement expectations abstract previous research finds a systematic decrease in consumption at retirement a finding that is inconsistent with the life cycle permanent income hypothesis if retirement is an expected event in this paper we use workers subjective beliefs about their retirement dates as an instrument for retirement after demonstrating that subjective retirement expectations are strong predictors of subsequent retirement decisions we still find a consumption decline at retirement for workers who retire when expected however our estimates of this consumption fall are about a third less than those found when we instead rely on the instrumental variables strategy used in prior studies

consumption versus expenditure previous authors have documented a dramatic decline in food expenditures at the time of retirement we show that this is matched by an equally dramatic rise in time spent shopping for and preparing meals using a novel data set that collects detailed food diaries for a large cross section of u s households we show that neither the quality nor the quantity of food intake deteriorates with retirement status we also show that unemployed households experience a decline in food expenditure and food consumption commensurate with the impact of job displacement on permanent income these results highlight how direct measures of consumption distinguish between anticipated and unanticipated shocks to income whereas measures of expenditures obscure the distinction

a comparison of sales response predictions from demand models applied to store level versus panel data in order to generate sales promotion response predictions marketing analysts estimate demand models using either disaggregated consumer level or aggregated store level scanner data comparison of predictions from these demand models is complicated by the fact that models may accommodate different forms of consumer heterogeneity depending on the level of data aggregation this study shows via simulation that demand models with various heterogeneity specifications do not produce more accurate sales response predictions than a homogeneous demand model applied to store level data with one major exception a random coefficients model designed to capture within store heterogeneity using store level data produced significantly more accurate sales response predictions as well as better fit compared to other model specifications an empirical application to the paper towel product category adds additional insights this article has supplementary material online

learning to compete in a transition economy experience environment and performance does organizational learning as measured by experience in a host country affect international expansion performance if so does such a relationship between experience and performance hold over time how do the environmental forces in the host country affect such a relationship focusing on organizational learning by multinational enterprises mnes operating in a transition economy this study answers these three critical questions by exploring the relationships among experience environment and performance at the subsidiary level based on a recent survey of 108 mne subunits operating in china we find that the intensity and diversity of host country experience is an important predictor of subunit performance while the positive effect of the intensity of experience on performance diminishes over time the impact of the diversity of experience on performance remains unchanged moreover for mnes experiencing greater environmental dynamism complexity and hostility there is a stronger positive relationship between experience and performance