exchange rates and the fiscal theory of the price level abstract this paper addresses exchange rate determination under a nominal interest peg in a two country cash in advance model under two types of cash in advance constraints if both governments peg the nominal interest rate on domestic bonds there is a continuum of equilibria each consistent with different nominal exchange rates and real resource allocations the well known finding of equilibrium uniqueness under a nominal interest rate peg in a closed economy does not survive in a multi country multi currency setting

how investible is bitcoin analyzing the liquidity and transaction costs of bitcoin markets abstract we examine the investibility of bitcoin by exploring the trading dynamics and market microstructure of bitcoin on three us cryptocurrency exchanges using high frequency intraday data of individual trades and quotes although all exchanges offer continuous trading we find that the highest trading activity highest volatility and lowest spreads coincide with us market trading hours suggesting that most trades are non algorithmic and executed by retail investors we further find that average quoted and effective spreads for bitcoin are lower than spreads on major equity exchanges implying that bitcoin is highly investible for retail size transactions

minimum variance hedging of bitcoin inverse futures we formulate an optimal hedging problem of bitcoin inverse futures under the minimum variance framework we obtain the optimal hedging strategy in closed forms for both short and long hedges and co

sunspots currency substitution and inflationary finance abstract this paper explores some issues surrounding inflationary finance of government deficits in a two country world with currency substitution each country s monetary policy is assumed to be subordinate to fiscal policy private agents knowing that the monetary authorities cannot commit themselves to fixed policy rules substitute among the two monies each monetary authority is then forced to accomodate the actions of the fiscal authorities and private agents by setting monetary growth rates consistent with their decisions this framework offers some interesting insights into the behavior of nominal exchange rates and their co movements with relative money supplies and government deficits

bitcoin for energy commodities before and after the december 2013 crash diversifier hedge or safe haven abstractwe study the relationship between bitcoin and commodities by assessing the ability of bitcoin to act as a diversifier hedge or safe haven against daily movements in commodities in general and energy commodities in particular we focus on energy commodities because energy in the form of electricity is an essential input in the bitcoin production for the entire period results show that bitcoin is a strong hedge and a safe haven against movements in both commodity indices we further examine whether that ability is also present for non energy commodities and our analysis show insignificant results when energy commodities are excluded from the general commodity index we also account for the december 2013 bitcoin price crash and our results reveal that bitcoin hedge and safe haven properties against commodities and energy commodities are only present in the pre crash period whereas in the post crash period bitcoin is no more than a diversifier in addition to uncovering the time varying role o

spillovers between bitcoin and other assets during bear and bull markets this article contributes to the embryonic literature on the relations between bitcoin and conventional investments by studying return and volatility spillovers between this largest cryptocurrency a

the theory of domestic content protection and content preference this paper investigates the resource reallocation effected by content protection and content preference schemes under alternative assumptions regarding the definition of domestic content the number of intermediate goods and the market structure of the domestic intermediate good industry content protection is shown to be equivalent to a combination of more familiar commercial policies however the extent of application of these policies is determined endogenously by parameters of the production functions for intermediate and final goods a number of anomalous and undesirable outcomes that may result from content protection and content preference are discussed

money is privacy an extensive literature in monetary theory has emphasized the role of money as a record keeping device money assumes this role in situations where using credit would be too costly and some might argue that this role will diminish as the cost of information and thus the cost of credit based transactions continues to fall in this paper we investigate another use for money the provision of privacy that is a money purchase does not identify the purchaser while a credit purchase does in a simple trading economy with moral hazard the efficiency of money is compared with that of credit and we find that money may be useful even when information is free

four themes in fertility research this study is concerned with four main themes that have been combined to describe u s fertility trends since 1920 these themes are identified as a time adjustment mechanism income the wifes labor force activities and some intergenerational factor in order to obtain an unambiguous picture each theme will be represented by only one variable after selecting the variables and estimating a model an examination of the changing role these variables have had in explaining changes in fertility the total fertility rate throughout much of this century will be made finally the implications these themes have for future fertility will be examined the authors conclude that in interpreting historical u s fertility rates the results seem to indicate that much of the early decline in u s fertility was due to falling infant mortality after the second world war fertility rose sharply as the age structure variable declined and income rose eventually both womens labor force participation rates and the age structure variable rose and consequently fertility fell they also suggest that the age structure variable may cause a temporary upward swing in fertility in the near future excerpt

constituent interest vs legislator ideology the role of political opportunity cost this paper applies the economic model of legislative voting to the automobile industry domestic content vote in the u s house of representatives in 1982 we consider constituent interests for and against the ml and compare the predictive powers of alternative indicators of ideological preferences we also examine the role of political opportunity cost and find that lame ducks were significantly less likely to vote for the bill than were returnees to congress given the political advantages of voting for the bill this is consistent with the view that legislators were influenced by the case for freer trade

incremental protection and efficient political choice between tariffs and quotas this paper offers a new political economy explanation for the increasing use in recent years of quotas instead of or in combination with tariffs as a form of trade protection we show that under domestic monopoly the comparative efficiency of tariffs and quotas in achieving political objectives will vary depending on the nature of the mark et and the level of protection at high levels of protection quotas can become more politically efficient than tariffs we also show that at low levels of protection a price equivalent quota may not exist

can cryptocurrencies be a safe haven a tail risk perspective analysis abstractcryptocurrencies are one of the most promising financial innovations of the last decade different from major stock indices and the commodities of gold and crude oil the cryptocurrencies e

on the value of virtual currencies nous construisons un modele d analyse pour cerner les facteurs qui influent sur le taux de change des monnaies virtuelles trois elements importent tout d abord l utilisation actuelle d une monnaie virtuelle comme moyen de paiement ensuite la decision d investisseurs prospectifs d acheter de la monnaie virtuelle et de controler ainsi l offre de ce type de monnaie enfin les facteurs qui determineront ensemble l adoption d une monnaie virtuelle par les consommateurs et son acceptation par les commercants

some simple bitcoin economics abstract we provide a model of an endowment economy with two competing but intrinsically worthless currencies dollar bitcoin dollars are supplied by a central bank to achieve its inflation target while the bitcoin supply grows deterministically our fundamental pricing equation implies in its simplest form that bitcoin prices form a martingale mutual impatience implies absence of speculation price volatility therefore does not invalidate the medium of exchange function bitcoin block rewards are not a tax on bitcoin holders they are financed with a dollar tax we discuss monetary policy implications bitcoin production taxation welfare and entry and characterize the range of equilibria

the effect of tax transfer policies on fertility in canada 1921 88 this paper estimates the effect on fertility of the personal tax exemption for children child tax credit family allowances and maternity leave benefits in canada using time series data from 1921 to 1988 it is found that the exemption child tax credit and family allowances all have significant and positive effects on fertility the results are robust to a variety of specifications including first differencing while the three tax transfer programs seem to be very distinct the null hypothesis that they have no differential effects on fertility can hardly be rejected all the results also hold for the cumulative effect of the three tax transfer programs the estimates predict that a large increase in the value of the tax transfer programs would be needed to increase fertility to the replacement level

return and volatility spillovers among cryptocurrencies abstract this paper measures interdependencies among 18 major cryptocurrencies and shows that i bitcoin is the dominant contributor of return and volatility spillovers among all the sampled cryptocurrencies ii return and volatility spillovers have risen steadily over time iii there are spikes in spillovers during major news events regarding cryptocurrencies these findings suggest growing interdependence among cryptocurrencies and by extension a higher degree of contagion risk it may be the case that cryptocurrencies are becoming more integrated albeit this makes for interesting future empirical testing in addition the time varying nature of spillovers reveals a certain dimension of uncertainty regarding the future of these digital currencies

safe havens in the face of presidential election uncertainty a comparison between bitcoin oil and precious metals even though the empirical literature on safe haven properties of different assets with respect to financial risks is increasing their abilities to safeguard against political risks has not been th

indeterminacy and volatility of exchange rates under imperfect currency substitution i introduction this paper presents a model of exchange rate determination under currency substitution its primary objective is to examine the implications of currency substitution for the behavior of exchange rates in a general equilibrium model under uncertainty the basic framework used here is the cash in advance model of lucas 1982 which is extended to allow for substitution among currencies it is well known that under perfect currency substitution foreign exchange rates may become indeterminate and behave independently of fundamental economic variables the reason is that the objects traded in foreign exchange markets are fiat currencies which unless supported by binding legal tender laws have no fundamental economic value when agents have unrestricted access to currency markets and are free to use any currency as the means of payment currency demands are entirely determined by speculation and consequently equilibrium exchange rates become indeterminate e g see kareken and wallace 1981 increased integration of financial markets reduces the costs and the risks of holding balances in multiple currencies 4 this creates more opportunities for currency substitution and it is reasonable to assume that agents are free to use any currency as the means of the payment in some of their international transactions for example suppose some percentage of transactions involving the u s exports to germany can be paid with either u s dollars or german marks agents will look at the opportunity costs i e u s and german nominal interest rates and expected exchange rate changes to decide what combination of the two currencies to use in these transactions if the potential costs and benefits of holding the two currencies are similar then agents will be indifferent between the two currencies we show that this could lead to exchange rate indeterminacy and nonfundamental volatility and change the effectiveness of monetary policies in our cash in advance framework agents are allowed to use any currency in some of their transactions called unrestricted transactions to make different currencies attractive at different times we allow the governments to follow timevarying monetary policies as a result agents will change their currency holdings to maximize the risk adjusted return on their portfolio subject to the constraint that specific currencies must be used as the means of payment in their restricted transactions 2 to answer specific questions about the behavior of exchange rates we obtain closed form solutions for agents demand functions equilibrium interest rates and the equilibrium exchange rate it turns out that two types of equilibrium exist in the first type the two currencies have different risk return profiles such that agents will prefer to use only one of them in unrestricted transactions in this case the exchange rate will be determined by fundamentals however as a large percentage of transactions become unrestricted the equilibrium exchange rate becomes more volatile under this type of equilibrium the effectiveness of monetary policies are changed currencies of countries that have high nominal interest rates will not be in demand for use in unrestricted transactions 3 this lack of demand means that any increase in the money supply of a high nominal rate country will lead to a larger increase in its rate of inflation and thus a larger reduction in the value of its currency in other words increased currency substitution increases the sensitivity of the currency values to changes in the money supply of high nominal rate countries also we show that as national economies become more integrated and more opportunities for currency substitution arise currencies of countries with high nominal interest rates would decline substantially the reason is that higher opportunity costs are associated with holding these currencies and thus agents will fully take advantage of currency substitution to reduce their holdings of these currencies reducing the value of these currencies

children as income producing assets the case of teen illegitimacy and government transfers this paper develops a classical model of the teen fertility decision in the presence of public income transfers the theoretical model predicts that welfare payments will encourage fertility holding constant other economic opportunities and that better economic opportunities will discourage fertility considering the possible simultaneity of illegitimacy rates and benefit levels due to the collective choice process the authors confirm the theoretical models predictions with state level data from 1980 through 1990 the authors find that including fixed effects in the regression to control for unobserved differences between states does not sufficiently control for endogeneity after controlling for endogeneity real welfare benefits are strongly and robustly related to teen illegitimacy the point estimates of the elasticity with respect to changes in the illegitimacy rate are around 1 3 for white teens and 2 1 for black teens real wages for women with a high school education or less are negatively related to teen illegitimacy for white teens with an elasticity of around 0 4 finally male wages appear to have little effect on the illegitimacy rate for white teens but appear negatively correlated with the illegitimacy rate for black teens in some model specifications authors

the fertility effect of dependent tax exemptions estimates for the united states the effect of the dependent tax exemption on the fertility rate in the united states is estimated the estimation is an improvement on previous work in that a non linear specification is used to better capture the shape of the demand for children it is found that the marginal effect of the dependent exemption decreases with the level of the exemption this suggests that although subsidies for childbearing will increase fertility it becomes increasingly difficult for countries to increase fertility through this type of scheme

liquidity uncertainty and bitcoin s market microstructure abstract this paper provides a novel measure of liquidity uncertainty for bitcoin using bid ask spread data from bitfinex one of the largest and most liquid bitcoin exchanges this measure can be used to analyze liquidity developments in bitcoin exchanges or to gauge the immediacy associated with buying or selling bitcoin it then proceeds to identify what aspects of bitcoin s market microstructure can explain the time series behavior of this liquidity uncertainty the estimation results are based on a markov regime switching model that captures episodes of high and low liquidity uncertainty for bitcoin over the period from october 2013 to march 2018

on the indeterminacy of equilibrium exchange rates in this paper we consider a particular international economic policy regime the laissez faire regime the distinguishing features of which are unrestricted portfolio choice and floating exchange rates and as we show this regime although favored by many economists is not economically feasible it does not have a determinate equilibrium that is an implication of an overlapping generations model more basically it is an implication of the notion that money is wanted only in order to accomplish trades

in search of attention in agricultural commodity markets abstract this paper investigates the impact of attention driven behaviour on agricultural commodity prices we proxy attention driven behaviour using search queries for the commodity names in google we apply the ardl model to estimate the impact of search queries on three internationally traded agricultural commodities corn wheat and soybean using weakly data for the period 2009 2015 the results show that there is causal and permanent relationship between google search queries and prices of corn and wheat confirming the presence of the attention driven behaviour however the estimates do not confirm this relationship for soybean price

a fundamental theory of exchange rates and direct currency trades in this paper we construct a two country search model to determine the nominal exchange rate between two fiat monies our model allows agents to use any currency to trade for goods in all countries however search frictions restrict agents opportunities for instantaneous arbitrage and hence make the nominal exchange rate determinate the nominal exchange rate depends on the two countries economic fundamentals including the stocks and growth rates of the two monies direct exchanges between currencies are essential and they imply a nominal exchange rate that is different from the relative price between the two currencies in the goods markets there are persistent violations of the law of one price and purchasing power parity in equilibrium despite the fact that prices are perfectly flexible and all goods are tradeable between countries nominal and real exchange rates can move together in the steady state in response to money growth shocks

a critical assessment of the political preference function approach in agricultural economics abstract the policy preference function ppf approach has become popular with economists seeking to explain the origin of government policies in this paper a distinction between positive and normative work with the ppf concept is made positive work is shown to suffer from a variety of shortcomings including the misspecification of traditional ppfs and the failure to consider the importance of institutions constraints and the interaction between different commodity policies these weaknesses are reflected in the counter intuitive results of a simple ppf model designed to reflect the interaction between the ec s wheat and barley policies furthermore it is demonstrated that ppf weights change as a result of both political preferences and market parameters hence changes in ppf weights cannot be attributed to changes in preferences alone test of the axioms of revealed preference theory are used to demonstrate that even though ppf weights derived for the ec s wheat and barley markets have fluctuated considerably since the early 1970s we are not able to conclude that there has been a shift in political preferences the paper concludes with some comments about the use of ppfs in a normative framework the underlying assumption that policy makers optimise seems not surprisingly often to lead practitioners to the conclusion that observed policies are not so bad after all economists should also beware of the tendency to overlook possible differences between the ppf and the social welfare function

money time preference and external balance in monetary economies international differences in rates of time preference do not in general lead to long run trade imbalances in sharp contrast with butter s 119811 results on non monetary overlapping generation economies this claim is documented within the context of a simple two country framework in which new immortal families enter each economy over time with the two countries differing only in their subjective discount rates even if consumers are more impatient at home than abroad trade is balanced in the long run in the presence of valued fiat currencies in constant supply and the current account is indeterminate this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

long memory and efficiency of bitcoin under heavy tails the long memory is usually defined via auto covariances which further connect with hurst exponent the heavy tails in bitcoin returns can cause infinite auto covariances which make the analysis of

information demand and cryptocurrency market activity this paper studies the relationship between information demand measured by google search volume index price returns and trading volume for five major cryptocurrencies we find that past information demand flows significantly influence the volume of all cryptocurrencies except for litecoin moreover trading volumes are found to granger cause the information demand flows of bitcoin ripple and litecoin while previous day s returns significantly influence the information demand flows of all the altcoins

bitcoin risk modeling with blockchain graphs abstract a key challenge for bitcoin cryptocurrency holders is managing fx risk we identify certain sub graphs chainlets which exhibit predictive influence on bitcoin price and volatility and characterize the types of chainlets that signify extreme losses

on the predictive power of arji volatility forecasts for bitcoin motivated by the recent literature on cryptocurrency volatility dynamics this paper adopts the arji garch egarch and cgarch models to explore their capabilities to make out of sample volatility

an alternative model of metcalfe s law for valuing bitcoin abstract this short paper presents a new model of the market capitalization of bitcoin that builds upon a standard model based upon metcalfe s law the model incorporates the logistic diffusion of the innovation which could be extended to capture population and economic factors this model appears to have some improved efficacy over the standard model using this model some areas for future research are briefly discussed

the economics of bitcoin price formation abstractthis is the first article that studies bitcoin price formation by considering both the traditional determinants of currency price e g market forces of supply and demand and digital currencies specific factors e g bitcoin attractiveness for investors and users the conceptual framework is based on the barro 1979 model from which we derive testable hypotheses using daily data for five years 2009 2015 and applying time series analytical mechanisms we find that market forces and bitcoin attractiveness for investors and users have a significant impact on bitcoin price but with variation over time our estimates do not support previous findings that macro financial developments are driving bitcoin price in the long run

fertility and pension programs in ldcs a model of mutual reinforcement surveys of the determinants of fertility decline often include adoption of state sponsored pension programs among the many socioeconomic changes responsible for smaller average family size old age insurance appears in analyses of the western demographic experience pension programs have also been suggested as a policy tool that third world governments might use to reduce fertility 2 the theoretical literature on the pension fertility relationship has thus far emphasized the substitution of old age benefits provided by the state for help received from children and the implications of this substitution for the value of children and desired family size quantitative analysis of the pension fertility relationship has likewise proceeded in terms of the presumed impact of old age insurance 3 very little attention has been given to the possibility that pension programs might be implemented in response to fertility decline and to consequent shifts in the demand for old age security and in the ability of the government to finance such programs it is even possible that the pension response to falling levels of fertility could be mistaken for the assumed fertility effect of old age security programs our purpose is to consider and analyze both directions of effect the literature addressing the determinants of pension expenditure has not yet been linked with the literature addressing the determinants of fertility doing so will not only increase our understanding of fertility patterns but will make an important contribution to the study of how demographic demand factors influence social welfare policy for example aaron and wilensky have utilized the percentage of the population over 65 in their models of pension expenditure 4 although

announcement effects in the cryptocurrency market cryptocurrencies have gained popularity as new economic investment assets globally in recent years this study examines market reactions to major news events associated with cryptocurrencies abnor

international factor mobility and national advantage abstract in this paper we prove rigorously v k ramaswami s proposition that in bilateral trade between two countries sharing the same technology represented by a strictly concave production function with positive marginal productivities of capital and labor the policy active country can gain more by importing monopsonistically the relatively scarce factor than by placing monopolistic restrictions on the export of the relatively abundant one we show that what matters is not the location but the constraints within which maximization takes place hence the monopsonistic results can be replicated by appropriate export arrangements the analysis is extended to consider the welfare implications to the policy passive country

the economics of special interest politics the case of the tariff this paper investigates the interaction of politicians and special interest lobbies the goal is to model the equilibrium levels of redistributive policies such as taxes subsidies tariffs and regulatory decisions the model is applied throughout to the setting of tariffs by contributing to political campaigns special interest lobbies generate economic returns higher tariffs generate revenue for import competing industries through higher product prices higher milk support prices raise dairy farm income and so forth the lobby invests to maximize these net economic returns in evaluating their chances of election politicians weigh the favorable effects of special interest money against the unfavorable association with the lobby and the social cost of the redistributive policy section i explores the lobby s problem it describes a formalization of mancur olson s discussion of the voluntary provision of public goods and optimal contributions by lobbies to political campaigns section ii describes determination of the equilibrium tariff positions of each politician in a political campaign

adverse incentives in the taxation of foreigners abstract sovereign policymakers will opt for too much of the public good if their tax falls partially on foreigners they myopically calculate that an increase in public spending is only partially financed by a decrease in home consumption the rest comes from foreign consumption which they do not care about this paper presents an example with seignorage taxes in a two country model with cash in advance constraints the inefficiency is characterized by an inflation bias too much public spending and large fiscal deficits curiously the countries most able to impose such taxes seem to have abstained from doing so

are rents fully dissipated students of rent seeking have erred in focusing their attention exclusively on the analysis of competitions for exogenously specified transfers when redistributive policies are treated as endogenous choices it is clear that there are both incentives and opportunities for policymakers to design them in ways that prevent the wasteful dissipation of a large proportion of the intended transfers an analytical framework that treats policy design in this way is capable of explaining a variety of common attributes of redistributive policies that are apparent anomalies under the traditional approach to rent seeking furthermore we predict and find supporting evidence that authoritarian regimes tend to be associated with higher ratios of government revenue to total income than do democracies we attribute this tendency to the substantially greater potential for dissipative competition for revenues under democracy than under dictatorship finally available estimates of lobbying expenditures and rents transferred under the recent federal crude oil controls contradict the hypothesis that rents are fully or almost fully disspated through political competition

limited commitment and the legal restrictions theory of the demand for money this paper addresses the rate of return puzzle of monetary theory similarly to the legal restrictions theory of the demand for money we assume that government bonds are subject to a minimum purchase requirement differently from this theory however we assume that intermediaries when issuing private notes cannot commit to always redeem them first we study an environment with legal restrictions to intermediation and show that cash and interest bearing bonds both circulate in the economy then we drop the legal restrictions and show that also with active intermediation under limited commitment there is an equilibrium with rate of return dominance a positive interest rate provides the intermediaries with the incentive to issue and redeem their notes

some stylized facts of the cryptocurrency market abstractwe examine the stylized facts of eight forms of cryptocurrencies representing almost 70 of cryptocurrency market capitalization in particular the empirical results show that 1 there ex

a unified framework for monetary theory and policy analysis search theoretic models of monetary exchange are based on explicit descriptions of the frictions that make money essential however tractable versions of these models typically make strong assumptions that render them ill suited for monetary policy analysis we propose a new framework based on explicit micro foundations within which macro policy can be studied the framework is analytically tractable and easily quantifiable we calibrate the model to standard observations and use it to measure the cost of inflation we find that going from 10 percent to 0 percent inflation is worth between 3 and 5 percent of consumption much higher than previous estimates

gmm estimates of currency substitution between the canadian dollar and the u s dollar this paper investigates the empirical strength of currency substitution between the canadian dollar and the u s dollar euler equations implied by a small open economy money in the utility function model are estimated and tested by hansen s generalized method of moments procedure the major empirical finding is that both the elasticity of currency substitution and the share of u s currency in the production of canadian liquidity services are economically small even though the combined domestic and u s real balances appear to provide statistically significant economizing on transactions costs copyright 1994 by ohio state university press

a cointegration model of age specific fertility and female labor supply in the united states 1 introductionmodels of fertility based on economic theories of behavior have been subjected to rigorous conceptual and empirical scrutiny for surveys see olsen 1994 and macunovich 1996a for critical reviews see murphy 1992 and smith 1981 however much empirical analysis of aggregate fertility patterns in the united states has relied on traditional regression methods with little influence from recent developments in multiple time series methods appropriate for nonstationary variables although important theoretical propositions are testable with individual data understanding of trends and patterns in fertility behavior at the societal level requires aggregate analysis ryder 1980 the aggregation of individual effects to make statements about total fertility is problematic as the composition of the population changes over time some effects that are measured at the individual level may reflect changes in individuals positions within a society and these effects will not be present at the societal level alternatively social interaction may induce behavioral changes across a population that are not reflected in individual responses as described by kohler 2001 changes in societal norms and institutions can create feedback loops between aggregate variables and individual incentives toward childbearing so that effects between aggregates may exceed substantially the responses measured at the level of the household 1analysis of aggregate time series data has its own considerable challenges fertility and its determinants are most likely nonstationary time series that trend or drift persistently away from their initial values such nonstationarity may undermine classical estimation and inference with traditional regression procedures leading to spurious inferences about relations among variables furthermore the principal determinants of fertility for example women s wages and education levels female labor force participation unemployment rates and husband s incomes are quite possibly endogenously determined in conjunction with fertility decisions this problem of endogenous regressons can undermine the identifiability of the fertility model rendering the relations unestimable even if the relations are identified the problem of endogenous regressors leads to inconsistent least squares estimators of model parameters the objective of this paper is to revisit a simple economic model of fertility employing the cointegration model of johansen 1995 that is appropriate for analyzing relations between nonstationary time series johansen s procedure allows the empirical determination of the number of stationary relations and produces maximum likelihood estimators of the parameters of these relations that are consistent and normally distributed even in the presence of endogenous explanatory variables furthermore to capture information on both the level and the timing of fertility the analysis is applied to two age specific fertility rates covering the prime childbearing years of u s women 2 empirical studies of fertility with aggregate dataeconomic models of fertility are grounded in either easterlin s 1980a relative income hypothesis or the new home economics nhe of willis 1973 and becker 1981 the former theory emphasizes the role of male incomes relative to economic aspirations as the driving force behind fertility and female labor force participation economic aspirations of young adults are determined by material conditions prevailing in their parental homes during their teenage years when their parents would be close to their prime in earnings capacity an increase in relative income shifts preferences in favor of childbearing and away from labor force activity by young adult women in the full easterlin model relative income is determined by the size of the young adult cohort relative to that of prime aged adults both measured contemporaneously easterlin 1980b

repeated games played by overlapping generations of players the present paper tries to explain cooperative behaviour in an organization run by a sequence of long but finitely lived agents we show that the folk theorem holds for infinitely repeated games with overlapping generations of finitely lived players any mutually beneficial outcome can approximately be sustained if the player s life span and the overlapping periods are long enough the result is stronger than the usual folk theorems in that it employs no assumption on the stage game such as the full dimensionality of payoff set or multiplicity of equilibria

moneyspots extraneous attributes and the coexistence of money and interest bearing nominal bonds it is folklore among monetary theorists that under laissez faire without ad hoc assumptions that favor money over bonds there do not exist equilibria in which government issued fiat money coexists with nominal default free interest bearing government bonds with similar physical characteristics this proposition is the basis for the strongest version of the rate of return dominance puzzle in this paper i show that if as has been the case throughout monetary history the physical object used as fiat money is heterogeneous in an extraneous attribute then there exist equilibria in which money coexists with interest bearing bonds

tariffs quotas and voluntary export restraints with and without internationally mobile capital this paper presents a general framework for comparing the effects of tariffs quotas and vers voluntary export restraints both with and without international capital mobility expressions for the shadow price of foreign exchange and the shadow price of capital under each type of trade restriction are derived and it is shown that although international capital mobility raises the welfare cost of tariff protection it lowers the welfare cost of quantitative restrictions in most cases the effects of exogenous shocks in the presence of quotas are intermediate between those in the presence of tariffs and those in the presence of vers tarifs douaniers contingentements et restrictions volontaires d l exportation quand le capital est ou n est pas mobile internationalement l auteur presente un cadre general d analyse qu il utilise pour comparer les effets de tarifs douaniers de contingentements et de restrictions volontaires a l exportation dans des contextes ofu le capital est ou n est pas mobile internationalement l auteur derive le prix fictif du change etranger et le prix fictif du capital sous l un et l autre types de restrictions au commerce et montre que meme si la mobilite internationale du capital augmente le cofut en terme de bien etre de la protection tarifaire elle reduit le cofut en terme de bien etre des restrictions sur les quantites echangees dans tous les cas les effets de chocs exogenes quand des contingentements existent sont toujours dans la fourchette entre ceux qu on observe quand des tarifs douaniers existent et ceux qui prevalent quand des restrictions volontaires i l exportation existent

price manipulation in the bitcoin ecosystem abstract to its proponents the cryptocurrency bitcoin offers the potential to disrupt payment systems and traditional currencies it has also been subject to security breaches and wild price fluctuations this paper identifies and analyzes the impact of suspicious trading activity on the mt gox bitcoin currency exchange in which approximately 600 000 bitcoins btc valued at 188 million were fraudulently acquired during both periods the usd btc exchange rate rose by an average of four percent on days when suspicious trades took place compared to a slight decline on days without suspicious activity based on rigorous analysis with extensive robustness checks the paper demonstrates that the suspicious trading activity likely caused the unprecedented spike in the usd btc exchange rate in late 2013 when the rate jumped from around 150 to more than 1 000 in two months

bitcoin 1 bitcoin 2 an experiment in privately issued outside monies the value of bitcoin depends upon self fulfilling beliefs that are hard to pin down we demonstrate this for the case where bitcoin is the only form of money in the economy and then generalize the message to the case of multiple bitcoin clones and or a competing sovereign currency some aspects of the indeterminacy we describe would no longer hold if bitcoin were an interesting bearing object

expropriation of multinational firms the role of domestic market conditions and domestic rivalries expropriation of multinational firms the role of domestic market conditions and domestic rivalries hamid mohtadi the causes of expropriation of multinational firms mnfs by their host governments are investigated based on social welfare analysis and also on public choice theory a key feature is the presence of cournot nash rivalry with domestic firms thus the likelihood of expropriation differs according to whether or not a domestic rival exists the likelihood also depends on the mnf s initial technological superiority over domestic technology the host country s demand structure the type of control to be exercised over the expopriated firm private vs state and the strategic behavior of the mnf ex anti when threat of expropriation i introduction evidence over the past thirty years points to widespread expropriation of multinational firms mnfs particularly by the less developed countries ldcs 1 yet expropriation has received far less attention than impediments to commodity trade tariffs quotas etc one exception is eaton and gersovitz 1984 eg who focus primarily on the impact of an expropriation threat on international capital mobility and the response of foreign capital to such a threat however even allowing for a strategic response to a threat of expropriation the issue of why governments engage in the actual expropriation of existing firms deserves attention 2 explaining expropriation of mnfs already in the host country is the task of this paper while the host government s motives for expropriation may vary as suggested by akinsanya 1980 this paper shall focus on economic motives based on social welfare analysis and on political economic motives based on public choice lobbying theory a key feature will be an emphasis on domestic vs foreign firm rivalry captured by a cournot nash duopoly mode which is aimed at highlighting the potential conflict of interest between the two firms and its effects on the host government s expropriation decision 3 to highlight the role of rivalry section 3 a simple monopoly model of expropriation will be developed in section 2 a second key feature will be to distinguish between the host government s expropriation and ownership decisions regarding the expropriated firm since chances of expropriation may depend on how the ownership issue is settled two cases will be distinguished a the expropriated firm is turned over to domestic residents and the firm continues to maximize profits sections 2 and 3 and b the state controls the expropriated firm i e nationalizes it section 4 4 in this case the government is likely to pursue an objective different from profit maximization see aharoni 1986 ch 4 following caves 1982 chs 1 7 the mnf will be assumed to possess technology superior to that domestically available because of access to intangible assets organizational and managerial know how specific technical knowledge etc not available to domestic firms 5 unlike physical capital intangible assets may be withdrawn in the event of an expropriation threat as in eg s model or actual expropriation as in the present model resulting in increased production costs to the expropriated firm 6 in this paper expropriation in the monopoly model will be motivated by the host country s desire to capture mnf profits otherwise repatriated to increase welfare but this welfare gain may be offset by a loss to consumers via the impact on costs and prices of the mnf s withdrawal of its technology under state ownership some of these results will be altered in the duopoly model the cost increase to the expropriated firm will raise the domestic rival s profits providing it with an incentive to lobby for expropriation this raises the opportunity cost of not lobbying and thus the incentive to lobby by other competing groups mnfs and consumers suggesting that expropriation may be the outcome of lobbying forces rather than of pure welfare considerations

tariffs quotas and domestic content protection some political economy considerations in this paper we have focused our attention on the relation between the configuration of protection seeking and of rent seeking interests and the choice of the protection instruments in doing so we have abstracted from the problem of nonequivalence of tariffs and quotas recent writings on product differentiation rodriguez 1979 donnenfeld 1984 have thrown new light on this old issue it may well be that the discussion is of key importance to the understanding of industry s predilection for quantitative restraints we also failed to deal with the question on nonequivalence of restrictive measures under conditions of uncertainty finally we touched only peripherally on the interaction among state it is perhaps more realistic to regard trade barrier formation as a game among nations as in baldwin and clarke 1985 every player seeks at once to protect its import substituting industries and to promote its exports by putting up barriers and by demanding that others lower theirs this approach is more suited however to explain the severity of restraints than it is to explain the nature of restraints which is the problem at hand trade restrictions have a protective and a revenue effect in less developed countries with ineffectual internal revenue collecting systems revenue seeking governments may ally themselves with protection seeking emergent industries and institute high tariffs tariffs and quotas may coexist if the trade restriction seeking alliance includes traders voluntary export restraints the newest of the protective devices may be popular because they circumvent international treaties and short circuit cumbersome procedures associated with changes in tariffs or quotas but they also have the virtue of inviting foreign exporters to act like price setters the harm to the foreign exporters is thereby mitigated in fact exporters may be gainers hence the danger of retaliatory action on the part of foreign governments is lessened domestic content legislation is a unique device in that the same domestic factor benefits from protection and also collects the protection created revenue we show the formal identity between the south african situation in which the maximum black white worker ratio is a binding constraint and regulations requiring that a given percentage of the value of the product be domestically produced we also derive formally the maximum permissible foreign content ratio which is optimal from the point of view of the protected interests in our analysis we have said virtually nothing about the victims of protectionism a discussion of the impact of the various measures on those who bear the cost of protection would doubtless deepen our understanding of the problem we should thus consider the magnitude of the deadweight loss and of the income transfer and the concentration or dispersion of the losers last but not least we should consider the question of awareness thus the cost impact of a tariff is easier to perceive than that of a quota with the cost of a ver or of domestic import content rule the most difficult to calculate of all it may be that the principle of the hiding hand is as important to the new political economy as the benthamite principles were to the old

nominal prices and interest rates in general equilibrium endowment shocks the outstanding problem of neoclassical monetary theory has been to determine the effect of changes in the money stock on nominal prices and interest rates the classic result is that in the absence of money illusion contracts fixed in nominal terms and other such impedimenta money is neutral thus a doubling of the money stock results in a doubling of the nominal price level and in no change in nominal interest rates except at most for a temporary liquidity effect while the price level is rising to its new level during the adjustment period the nominal interest rate might temporarily drop this neutrality result has conventionally been proved in a static framework in intertemporal models it is necessary to distinguish between static neutrality and dynamic neutrality if a model displays dynamic neutrality fluctuations in the money stock immediately induce a proportional change in the nominal price level and no change in nominal interest rates or any real variable this property is different from and stronger than static neutrality which in dynamic models states only that if the money stock at all dates is doubled so will be the price level at all dates the effects of exogenous shocks in the monetary growth rate on nominal prices and interest rates are analyzed a representative individual rational expectations framework is adopted and a demand for money is generated by entering money in the utility function the effects of monetary shocks on inflation and interest rates are shown to depend on the autocorrelation of the monetary growth rate for example under serial independence the inflation rate equals the monetary growth rate and the nominal interest rate is nonrandom while under positive negative autocorrelation the nominal interest rate is affected positively negatively by positive growth rate shocks i am grateful to the staff of the federal reserve bank of philadelphia to the finance groups at the university of southem california and virginia polytechnic institute and to c j lacivita dan peled john seater and jon sonstelie for valuable comments on earlier drafts

endogenous choice of trade policy instruments abstract recently developed theories of endogenous trade policy formation have attempted to explain tariffs as the result of economic interest seeking by individuals or groups this note demonstrates that tariffs will not emerge as a policy choice if income is redistributed solely through trade policy induced factor price changes a production tax cum subsidy will be adopted as both gainers and losers are better off than with a tariff

self confirming price dispersion in monetary economies abstract in a monetary economy we show that price dispersion arises as an equilibrium outcome without the need for costly simultaneous search or any heterogeneity in preferences production costs or search technologies a distribution of money holdings among buyers makes sellers indifferent across a set of posted prices leading to a non degenerate price distribution this price distribution in turn makes buyers indifferent across a range of money balances rationalizing the non degenerate distribution of money holdings we completely characterize the distribution of posted prices and money holdings in any equilibrium equilibria with price dispersion admit higher maximum prices than observed in any single price equilibrium and feature an increasing density of prices in contrast to existing theories price dispersion reduces welfare by creating mismatch between posted prices and money balances inflation exacerbates this welfare loss by shifting the distribution towards higher prices

the response of aggregate production to fertility induced changes in population age distribution with a particular focus upon long term supply effects the authors explored the implications of different population age distributions for the productive capacity of an economy a multilevel aggregate production process was specified plausible values assigned to its parameters and steady state solutions obtained under a range of alternative fertility assumptions the theoretical model was calibrated to conform with canadian data and published estimates of age sex substitution elasticities the study found productive capacity to be related to age distribution although the output effects exceed 8 regardless of the structure of the economy only when total fertility rate is less than 1 6 or well above 3 0 within the range of variation productive capacity and output per capita are lower for both younger and older populations altering the elasticity of substitution between different tasks has negligible effects upon the sensitivity of the economy to changes in age distribution altering the elasticity of substitution between different age sex groups for a given task has a markedly greater effect introducing either increasing or decreasing returns to scale has only a minor effect upon the sensitivity of the economy to changes in age distribution and marginal products are quite sensitive to changes in age distribution for both younger and older workers but far less sensitive for middle aged workers

what drives the bitcoin price a factor augmented error correction mechanism investigation this article aims to determine what drives the price of bitcoin to achieve this aim a large set of data is analysed using vec models augmented by factors representing unobservable economic forces

simultaneous equations analysis of fertility in the u s a comment comments on a study by conger and campbell which postulated a 6 equation dynamic model including a fertility equation estimated by 2 stage least squares on the basis of aggregate data for the u s the authors present a table with 3 sets of estimates for each of the 6 structural equations specified in the earlier study 2 stage least squares estimates obtained for 1946 70 and 1946 76 and the estimates obtained by conger and campbell are indicated the authors report that they were unable to obtain the results reported by the latter their estimates were quite different and did not seem to support the conclusions offered in the earlier study estimates for the longer period were substantially different from those for the shorter the authors believe that the conger campbell data also do not support the conger campbell conclusions each point is discussed with reference to the table the equations are used to evaluate fertility female participation infant mortality income education and medical expenditure