practical operation strategies for pumped hydroelectric energy storage phes utilising electricity price arbitrage abstract in this paper three practical operation strategies 24optimal 24prognostic and 24hsitrocial are compared to the optimum profit feasible for a phes facility with a 360 mw pump 300 mw turbine and a 2 gwh storage utilising price arbitrage on 13 electricity spot markets the results indicate that almost all 97 of the profits can be obtained by a phes facility when it is optimised using the 24optimal strategy developed which optimises the energy storage based on the day ahead electricity prices however to maximise profits with the 24optimal strategy the day ahead electricity prices must be the actual prices which the phes facility is charged or the phes operator must have very accurate price predictions otherwise the predicted profit could be significantly reduced and even become a loss finally using the 24optimal strategy the phes profit can surpass the annual investment repayments required however over the 5 year period investigated 2005 2009 the annual profit from the phes facility varied by more than 50 on five out of six electricity markets considered considering the 40 year lifetime of phes even with low investment costs a low interest rate and a suitable electricity market phes is a risky investment without a more predictable profit

why market rules matter optimizing pumped hydroelectric storage when compensation rules differ abstract policies markets and technologies interact to create the modern electrical system integrating large amounts of electricity generated by variable renewable resources such as from wind and sunlight into electricity systems may require energy storage technologies to synchronize electricity production with electricity demand electricity markets compensate the performance of these energy storage technologies for the services they provide and these markets are often operated by regional independent system operators isos that specify the market rules for this compensation to examine how different iso rules can affect the operation and profitability an energy storage technology we develop a dynamic programming model of pumped hydroelectric storage phes facility operation under the market rules from the midcontinent iso and iso new england we present how differences in rules between these isos produced different operational strategies and profits and how important they are for phes profitability

natural capital and the theory of economic growth abstract during the past half century theorizing about economic growth has forced economists to reconsider and revise the capital concept a number of times this paper explores the analytical relationship between capital accumulation and economic growth on the one hand and the natural world on the other section 1 sketches modern growth theory with an emphasis on whether or not the economy is seen as facing biophysical limits to growth section 2 argues that analysis of the role that natural capital plays in the production process must occur before one can assess the prospects for economic growth section 3 inserts natural capital into a simple growth model and discusses the implications that 1 depletion of natural capital 2 complementarity in production of natural and social forms of capital and 3 accumulation of technical knowledge have for the growth process

adjustment costs from environmental change abstract the paper is concerned with the case whereby the distribution of a firm s productivity shocks changes without the knowledge of the firm over time the firm learns about the nature and extent of the change in the distribution of the shock and adjusts incurring adjustment costs in the process the long run loss in profits due to the shift in the distribution we term the equilibrium response the transitory loss in profits incurred while the firm is learning about the distribution shift is termed the adjustment cost the theory is then applied to the problem of measuring adjustment costs in the face of imperfectly observed climate change in agriculture the empirical part of the paper involves estimating a restricted profit function for agricultural land in a five state region of the midwest us as a function of prices land characteristics actual weather realizations and expected weather we then simulate the effect of an unobserved climate shock where learning about the climate shock is by observing the weather and updating prior knowledge using bayes rule we find adjustment costs to climate change are 1 4 of annual land rents

transmission congestion relief using privately owned large scale energy storage systems in a competitive electricity market the trend of integrating more nondispatchable renewable sources into the electric grid and phasing out dispatchable fossil fueled power plants in the near future reduces the operational flexibility increases the chance of transmission congestion and endangers the stability of electric system utilities are investigating the application of large scale energy storage systems esss to address some of these imminent challenges to their power systems in this paper the application of privately owned large scale esss for the purpose of congestion relief in transmission systems as an ancillary service is investigated it is demonstrated that in conventional optimal dispatch algorithms for an ess the storage system cannot effectively contribute to congestion relief since the dispatch algorithm has not prepared the ess in advance hence a new real time optimal dispatch rtod algorithm is proposed that aims to generate revenue primarily by exploiting electricity price arbitrage opportunities in the day ahead electricity market while optimally preparing the ess to maximize its contribution to congestion relief as an ancillary service a compressed air ess is sized and employed for evaluations of the proposed rtod algorithm the efficacy and feasibility of the proposed algorithm are validated using real world price data from ontario s wholesale electricity market an analysis is presented regarding the appropriate amount of financial compensation for the ess owner due to this contribution to congestion relief in the studied electricity market

do fiscal rules dampen the political business cycle this paper develops and tests the theory that fiscal rules limit politicians ability to manipulate the budget for electoral gain using panel data from the american states i find evidence suggesting that stringent balanced budget rules dampen the political business cycle that is while spending rises before and falls after elections in states that can carry deficits into the next fiscal year this pattern does not exist in states with strict no carry rules neither binding gubernatorial term limits nor the partisan composition of government appear to significantly affect the magnitude of the political business cycle

state responses to fiscal crises the effects of budgetary institutions and politics this paper explores the dynamics of state taxes and spending during the late 1980s when regional economic downturns and increased expenditure demands led to substantial state budget deficits more restrictive state fiscal institutions such as no deficit carryover rules and tax and expenditure limitations are correlated with more rapid fiscal adjustment to unexpected deficits political factors are also important when a single party controls the state house and the governorship deficit adjustment is much faster than when party control is divided in gubernatorial election years tax increases and spending cuts are both significantly smaller than at other times

political business cycles 40 years after nordhaus the aim of this article is to survey the huge literature that has emerged in the last four decades following nordhaus s rev econ stud 42 2 169 190 1975 publication on political business cycles pbcs i first propose some developments in history of thought to examine the context in which this ground breaking contribution saw the light of the day i also present a simplified version of nordhaus s model to highlight his key results i detail some early critiques of this model and the fields of investigations to which they gave birth i then focus on the institutional context and examine its influence on pbcs the actual research agenda finally i derive some paths for future research

explaining government growth in the u s states despite the explosive increase in the research program on government growth in recent years little work has been done on government growth disaggregated to the subnational level i examine the empirical validity of five competing models of government growth for the fifty u s states from 1945 to 1984 wagner s law fiscal illusion party control bureau voting and intergovernmental grant government size is defined in terms of state government spending as a proportion of total state economic output with separate implicit price deflators being employed for the public and private sectors based on a longitudinal test of these competing models the analysis uncovers strong empirical support for the bureau voting and intergovernmental grant models moderately weak support for the wagner s law model and virtually no support for the fiscal illusion and party control explanations these findings have important implications for the study of government growth in general and more specifically in the states

the economic impacts of climate change evidence from agricultural output and random fluctuations in weather fisher et al 2012 hereafter fhrs have uncovered coding and data errors in our paper deschenes and greenstone 2007 hereafter dg we acknowledge and are embarrassed by these mistakes we are grateful to fhrs for uncovering them we hope that this reply will also contribute to advancing the literature on the vital question of the impact of climate change on the us agricultural sector fhrs main critiques of dg are as follows i there are errors in the weather data and climate change projections used by dg ii the climate change projections are based on the hadley 2 model and scenarios rather than the more recent hadley 3 model and scenarios iii standard errors are biased due to spatial correlation iv the inclusion of state by year fixed effects does not leave enough weather variation to obtain meaningful estimates of the relationship between agriculture profits and weather v storage and inventory adjustment in response to yield shocks invalidate the use of annual profit data and vi fhrs argue that a better specified hedonic model produces robust estimates unlike the results reported in dg four of these critiques have little basis and we respond to them here in the introduction specifically with respect to ii the more recent daily climate predictions were not available when we wrote dg nevertheless the most important issue is providing the reliable estimates of climate change and in this note we report estimates based on the climate model we used in dg and a more recent one that we gained access to in the meantime iii in the primary table on agricultural profits dg reports two sets of standard errors with the first clustered at the county level and the second based on a variance covariance matrix that accounts for spatial correlation using the method proposed in conley 1999 thus the claim of fhrs 2012 seems overblown nevertheless to ease comparisons of papers in this literature this note will adopt the fhrs convention of reporting estimated standard errors clustered at the county and state levels we find that inference is largely unaffected by the choice between these different assumptions about the variance covariance matrix

will u s agriculture really benefit from global warming accounting for irrigation in the hedonic approach will u s agriculture really benefit from global warming accounting for irrigation in the hedonic approach wolfram schlenker w michael hanemann and anthony c fisher there has been a lively debate about the potential impact of global climate change on u s agriculture most of the early agro economic studies predict large damages see for example richard m adams 1989 harry m kaiser et al 1993 and adams et al 1995 in an innovative paper robert mendelsohn william d nordhaus and daigee shaw 1994 hereafter mns propose a new approach using the variation in temperature and precipitation across u s counties to estimate a reduced form hedonic equation with the value of farmland as the dependent variable a change in temperature and or precipitation is then associated with a change in farmland value which can be interpreted as the impact of climate change adams et al 1998 characterize the hedonic approach as a spatial analogue approach and acknowledge that the strength of the spatial analogue approach is that structural changes and farm responses are implicit in the analysis freeing the analyst from the burden of estimating the e ects of climate change on particular region speci c crops and farmer responses on the other hand one of the potential disadvantages of the hedonic approach is that it is a partial equilibrium analysis i e agricultural prices are assumed to remain constant 1 while year to year uctuations in annual weather conditions certainly have the potential to impact current commodity prices especially for crops produced only in a relatively localized area such as citrus fruits which are grown mainly in california and florida changes in long run weather patterns i e changes in climate might have a smaller e ect on commodity prices because of the greater potential for economic adaptation particularly shifts in growing regions 2 the hedonic approach as implemented by mns predicts that existing agricultural land on average might be more productive and hence result in bene ts for u s farmers 3 the hedonic approach has received considerable attention in our judgment in part because the conclusions are at variance with those of some other studies

divided government fiscal institutions and budget deficits evidence from the states does partisan control of american state government have systematic effects on state spending and taxing levels does divided control affect the government s ability to make hard decisions do institutional rules like legal deficit carryover restrictions matter using a formal model of fiscal policy to guide empirical analysis of data covering the american states from 1968 to 1987 we conclude that 1 aggregate state budget totals are driven by different factors under democrats and republicans the net result being that democrats target spending and taxes to higher shares of state level personal income 2 divided government is less able to react to revenue shocks that lead to budget deficits particularly where different parties control each chamber of the legislature and 3 unified party governments with restricted ability to carry deficits into the next fiscal year outside the south have sharper reactions to negative revenue shocks than those without restrictions

the keynesian and political determinants of unbalanced budgets u s fiscal policy from eisenhower to reagan the political business cycle proposition that politicians manipulate fiscal policy for political advantage is largely untested more often than not such manipulation is only assumed to occur on the basis of observed movements in inflation and unemployment and the few direct tests of the manipulation hypothesis are characterized by limited consideration of the full possibilities for political influence inadequate control for nonpolitical stabilization policy and inconsistent results this paper constructs several models of political fiscal policy incorporates them into a simple model of keynesian stabilization policy and tests the combined models using u s budget surplus deficit data from fy54 to fy83 the results provide little support for either the electoral motivation or partisan differences interpretations of the political business cycle the implications of these findings for the political business cycle literature long term economic management and deficit directed proposals for institutional reform are discussed

the political process and the use of debt financing by state governments empirical evidence offered in this study suggests that decisions by state government officials to effect debt financed spending depend in part on the state s gubernatorial election cycle more specifically the results reveal relative increases in state debt issues in anticipation of elections and furthermore they reveal that such increases are more significant for states characterized by high interparty political competition while theoretical limitations preclude a definitive explanation for these results the evidence is consistent with a view of state political markets where incumbent parties manipulate public policy so as to enhance the probability of success in pending elections this insight is significant in that it suggests a relationship between public policy decisions and election cycles in a context heretofore unexplored

resource windfalls and public debt a political economy perspective abstract can natural resource windfalls increase public debt in democracies adopting a political economy perspective we show that the answer is in the affirmative resource windfalls increase both the government s income and wealth the former mitigates the need to borrow whereas the latter encourages further borrowing as it improves its terms implying an ambiguous pure effect of resource windfalls on debt re election considerations shorten political time horizons and give rise to political myopia we show that higher political myopia induced by more stringent institutional re election restrictions magnifies the wealth effect turning positive the effect of resource windfalls on debt we test the model s predictions using a panel of u s states over the period 1963 2007 our identification strategy rests on constitutionally entrenched differences in gubernatorial term limits that provide plausibly exogenous variation in re election prospects and geographically based cross state differences in natural endowments our baseline estimates indicate that a resource windfall of 1 induces an increase of approximately 20 in the public debt of states with more stringent re election restrictions

a review of pumped hydro energy storage development in significant international electricity markets the global effort to decarbonise electricity systems has led to widespread deployments of variable renewable energy generation technologies which in turn has boosted research and development interest in bulk electrical energy storage ees however despite large increases in research funding many electricity markets with increasingly large proportions of variable renewable generation have seen little actual bulk ees deployment while this can be partly attributed to the need for technological developments it is also due to the challenge of fairly rewarding storage operators for the range of services that storage provides to the wider network especially in markets that have undergone significant restructuring and liberalisation pumped hydroelectric energy storage phes is the overwhelmingly established bulk ees technology with a global installed capacity around 130 gw and has been an integral part of many markets since the 1960s this review provides an historical overview of the development of phes in several significant electrical markets and compares a number of mechanisms that can reward phes in different international market frameworks as well as providing up to date information about phes a primary motivation for this work is to provide an overview about the types of rewards available to bulk ees for the wider storage community including investors technology developers and policy makers observing that bulk ees projects seem to be unattractive investments for the private sector the paper also includes a brief discussion in terms of public sector investment

rules of thumb for social learning this paper studies agents who consider the experiences of their neighbors in deciding which of two technologies to use we analyze two learning environments one in which the same technology is optimal for all players and another in which each technology is better for some of them in both environments players use exogenously specified rules of thumb that ignore historical data but may incorporate a tendency to use the more popular technology in some cases these naive rules can lead to fairly efficient decisions in the long run but adjustment can be slow when a superior technology is first introduced

the impact of global warming on agriculture a ricardian analysis reply we measure the economic impact of climate on land prices using cross sectional data on climate farmland prices and other economic and geophysical data for almost 3 000 counties in the united states we find that higher temperatures in all seasons except autumn reduce average farm values while more precipitation outside of autumn increases farm values applying the model to a global warming scenario shows a significantly lower estimated impact of global warming on u s agriculture than the traditional production function approach and in one case suggests that even without co sub 2 fertilization global warming may have economic benefits for agriculture 16 refs 5 figs 5 tabs

optimal electricity system planning in a large hydro jurisdiction will british columbia soon become a major importer of electricity abstract an energy system model incorporating generation transmission and integrated management of hydroelectric reservoirs in british columbia bc is used to explore approaches to meeting load projections to 2040 the model includes electricity trade between bc alberta and the us the influence of a carbon emissions tax contributions from the aging gas fired burrard thermal plant and production from a proposed dam called site c on the peace river in northern bc model results suggest if load increases as anticipated at 1 4 year bc will need to import significant amounts of electricity within two decades operating the burrard plant at full capacity to 2025 and bringing site c on line in 2020 delays the need to import by only 6 years while realizing net electricity export sales of 5 9 billion by 2040 bringing site c on line but imposing a tax of 30 t of co2 emitted on gas fired generation causes immediate closure of the burrard plant on economic grounds and reduces net export revenue to 0 63 billion by 2040 bc has options however including demand side management and development of additional generation capacity in the absence of these measures imported power may be more significant in bc s electricity future

ecological pricing and transformity a solution method for systems rarely at general equilibrium abstract this paper outlines a new method for determining ecological prices transformities in complicated ecological economic systems where non equilibrium prices are likely to be prevalent that is an eigenvalue eigenvector mathematical solution method for solving an overdetermined homogeneous system of simultaneous linear equations is proposed and tested previous mathematical approaches to the problem of ecological pricing are reviewed before proceeding with an explanation of the new solution method for the determination of ecological prices the proposed method seeks to avoid the need to make a number of untenable assumptions used in previous methods e g the assumption that there necessarily needs to be an equal number of processes and quantities in the ecological economic system the paper also provides practical advice and an algorithm for solving the ecological pricing problem for example advice on how to overcome the problem of ill conditioned matrices which are sometimes encountered

a positive theory of fiscal deficits and government debt this paper considers an economy in which policymakers with different preferences alternate in office as a result of elections government debt is used strategically by each policymaker to influence the choices of his successors if different policymakers disagree about the desired composition of government spending between two public goods the economy exhibits a deficits bias that is debt accumulation is higher than it would be with a social planner the equilibrium level of debt is larger the larger is the degree of polarization between alternating governments and the less likely it is that the current government will be re elected

estimating the value of electricity storage in pjm arbitrage and some welfare effects significant increases in prices and price volatility of natural gas and electricity have raised interest in the potential economic opportunities for electricity storage in this paper we analyze the arbitrage value of a price taking storage device in pjm during the six year period from 2002 to 2007 to understand the impact of fuel prices transmission constraints efficiency storage capacity and fuel mix the impact of load shifting for larger amounts of storage where reductions in arbitrage are offset by shifts in consumer and producer surplus as well as increases in social welfare from a variety of sources is also considered

systems valuing of natural capital and investment in extensive pastoral systems lessons from the patagonian case abstract in patagonian argentina wool production systems historical performance records observed landscape changes and long term demographic modeling of sheep flocks indicate that non sustainable ecological and economic dynamics have developed during recent decades in order to elucidate possible causes of these trends a dynamic model of the wool production system including basic ecological and economic feedback mechanisms was applied to the analysis of alternative investment policies the values of the various components ewes forage soil of natural capital nc involved in the production systems were estimated in this study through a systemic approach and their losses during wool production cycles were incorporated in their financial analysis our results indicate that external investment in increasing the ewe stocks a common practice in these systems is not sustainable in time unless a simultaneous external investment in forage nc is performed more specifically external investment to increase in 20 the ewe stocks would be expected to generate positive net cash flows during 6 8 years if due account is taken from the losses of nc produced successive investments of the same sort would generate increasingly shorter periods of positive cash flows or even negative results after 15 25 years re investment of a fraction of the net revenues obtained through wool sales in the reposition of forage resources also proves to be a non sustainable policy external investment on forage resources at about a 10 1 ratio with respect to investments in the ewe stock would produce positive net cash flows sustainable in time it is concluded that sustainable investment policies in extensive range systems of patagonia should consider the ecological economic relations and feedbacks existing between forage consumption by ewes and ewe natality soil erosion controls exerted by forage and market behavior the structure of analysis of investment policies on extensive pastoral systems of the patagonian monte here proposed seems valuable to be extended to other regions with similar ecological economic characteristics

between ostrom and nordhaus the research landscape of sustainability economics abstract we survey the emerging research area of sustainability economics through a quantitative full text analysis of peer reviewed journal publications from 1987 to 2013 to identify relevant contributions we draw on existing definitions of sustainability economics for a keyword based identification strategy a combined focus on a the human nature relationship b the long term uncertain future c normative orientation towards sustainability and d economic analysis our analysis of a random subsample of 343 relevant papers reveals that i sustainability economics is a rapidly developing research area ii while theoretical contributions shaped the area in earlier years applied work now constitutes the largest share of contributions iii the research landscape can be clustered into eleven research clusters these range from participatory governance of social ecological systems associated with the work of elinor ostrom to questions of intertemporal allocation and distribution applied to climate economics associated with the work of william nordhaus iv the research area is broad in scope and heterogeneous and there is relatively little interaction between important clusters v relevant contributions are published in more than 100 journals ten journals publish half of all contributions led by ecological economics and 40 appear in non economics journals underscoring the importance of interdisciplinary dialogue

online adaptive real time optimal dispatch of privately owned energy storage systems using public domain electricity market prices this paper aims to evaluate and improve the usefulness of publicly available electricity market prices for real time optimal dispatching rtod of a privately owned energy storage system ess in a competitive electricity market the rtod algorithm seeks to maximize the revenue by exploiting arbitrage opportunities available due to the inter temporal variation of electricity prices in the day ahead market the pre dispatch prices issued by the ontario independent electricity system operator and the corresponding ex post hourly ontario energy prices are employed as the forecast and the actual prices a compressed air ess is sized and employed for evaluations due to its lower capital expenditure and its ability to be positively influenced by the availability of waste heat first the conventional rtod algorithm is developed by formulating a mixed integer linear programming problem it is demonstrated that the forecast inaccuracy of publicly available market prices significantly reduces the ess revenue then a new adaptive algorithm is proposed and evaluated which adapts the objective function of the optimization problem online based on historical market prices available before real time the outcomes reveal that the proposed adaptive rtod can significantly increase the ess revenue compared to the conventional algorithm as well as the back casting method proposed in prior studies

valuation framework for large scale electricity storage in a case with wind curtailment this paper investigates the value of large scale applications of electricity storage in selected european power systems in the context of wind generation confronted with a grid bottleneck it analyzes the market value to 2030 of two storage technologies assuming the market situation projected for germany and france the analysis assesses the evolution of storage economics based on the net present value of cash flows sensitivities to market and regulatory drivers of value are assessed e g electricity price spreads ancillary services revenues wind curtailment and the level of carbon prices the paper concludes by suggesting possible ways to improve the competitiveness of electricity storage such as research and development and deployment programmes and changes to the design of power markets and regulatory arrangements to enable storage owners to better capture the benefits of storage such changes would allow electricity storage where economically viable to play a critical role in establishing a future sustainable european power system

stochastic trend weather and us corn yield variability regional corn yield models incorporating stochastic trends prices and weather variables are estimated hypothesis tests suggest yield variability has increased because of an increase in error variance and an increase in weather related effects decomposition of the error variance shows much of its increase is due to an increased correlaion between regional yields

electoral competition in the american states electoral competition is a concept that has played a central role in much of the state politics literature one commonly used indicator of competition in the states is the ranney index we offer an alternative indicator of competition one based on district level outcomes of state legislative elections after evaluating both indicators in terms of validity and reliability the analysis suggests that the district level indicator is both empirically and intuitively superior as a measure of electoral competition the implications of this finding are discussed

is inexpensive natural gas hindering the grid energy storage industry abstract grid energy storage is a maturing technology and forecasts of the industry s growth have been promising however recent years have realized little growth in actual deployments of grid level storage and several high profile storage companies and projects have failed we hypothesize that falling natural gas prices have significantly reduced the potential profit from many u s energy storage projects since 2009 and quantify that effect we use engineering economic models to calculate the monthly revenue to energy storage devices providing frequency regulation and energy arbitrage in several electricity markets and compare that revenue to prevailing natural gas prices we find that flywheel devices providing frequency regulation were profitable in months when natural gas prices were above 7 mcf but face difficulties at current prices around 4 mcf for energy arbitrage alone we find that the breakeven capital cost for large scale storage was around 300 kwh in several key locations in 2004 2008 but is around 100 kwh in the same locations today though cost and performance improvements have been continually decreasing the effective cost of energy services from storage fundamental market signals indicating the need for energy storage are at or near 10 year lows for both energy arbitrage and frequency regulation

conservation in the optimal use of rangelands abstract in previous papers we have considered the optimal mix of biodiversity in semi arid rangelands focusing on the steady state this paper addresses the question of conservation in the optimal use of rangelands where conservation is understood to mean maintenance of the system in a natural state we consider a rangeland that may exist in one of two states in the natural state its dynamics are regulated by fire in the managed state its dynamics are regulated by grazing pressure by livestock we show that the optimal use of rangelands may include its maintenance in both states at different points in time depending on initial conditions and the set of relative prices

value from a complex dynamic system s perspective abstract this paper examines critically the concept of value which emerged within modern economic theory and which is still the main basis for value theories in environmental and most strands of ecological economics building upon modern complex dynamic systems theory the author highlights the relational and emergent characteristics of value stressing that the economic and ecological value of a given good has to be assessed within its particular spatiotemporal context this analysis presents some of the inherent weaknesses of conventional value theories and the problems which arise from free market based regulation of economic processes these problems it is suggested may be overcome by what is termed post normal value theory introduced at the end of the article

energy storage arbitrage under day ahead and real time price uncertainty electricity markets must match real time supply and demand of electricity with increasing penetration of renewable resources it is important that this balancing is done effectively considering the high uncertainty of wind and solar energy storing electrical energy can make the grid more reliable and efficient and energy storage is proposed as a complement to highly variable renewable energy sources however for investments in energy storage to increase participating in the market must become economically viable for owners this paper proposes a stochastic formulation of a storage owner s arbitrage profit maximization problem under uncertainty in day ahead and real time market prices the proposed model helps storage owners in market bidding and operational decisions and in estimation of the economic viability of energy storage case study results on realistic market price data show that the novel stochastic bidding approach does significantly better than the deterministic benchmark

adjusting to climate change implications of increased variability and asymmetric adjustment costs for investment in water reserves abstract in this paper we study the determination of optimal water storage capacity in a region taking into account that the supply of the resource the flow into the reserve is uncertain that a measure of the uncertainty the variance is likely to increase with climate change that building capacity is costly and that the development of water resources may entail alsoenvironmental costs we find that water storage capacity in the long run ispositivelyrelated to increases in uncertainty if the marginal benefit of water withdrawal isconvexand that for the case of costly reversibility of investment a range of inaction for investment appears and the stability of water storage capacity with respect to changes in variance increases

cost functions under production uncertainty we characterize the cost functions which would be consistent with expected utility maximization when production is uncertain it is not generally possible assuming risk aversion to use only expected output as the constraint in a cost minimization problem in some leading cases cost functions consistent with expected utility maximization are particularly useful because they are devoid of risk preferences

bohn s test of fiscal sustainability of the american state governments the dramatic fall in state revenues during the great recession and the resultant large budget deficits accentuated concerns about state fiscal sustainability i employ a model based approach proposed by bohn 1998 to test for sustainability in this approach a positive and significant reaction of the ratio of primary surplus ratio s to lagged debt constitutes a sufficient condition for sustainability based on a panel of 48 contiguous states 1961 2008 and several model specifications i find robust evidence in favor of sustainability further analysis suggests that the adjustment of the components of s to debt is asymmetric with the revenue side bearing a heavier burden than the spending side the response of s is also found to be asymmetric with respect to the level of debt finally the magnitude of the response is larger in states with a higher degree of fiscal stringency in general and own revenue and no deficit carryover provisions in particular

disentangling patterns of state debt financing we examine the determinants of change in state government indebtedness from 1961 through 1989 using a pooled time series cross sectional analysis the analysis reveals that debt is primarily a function of economic conditions reflecting both the need to borrow and the capacity of states to repay debt however political factors such as culture partisan competition and electoral cycles also affect state debt we also find very weak evidence that tax and expenditure limitations ironically may increase state indebtedness while constitutional debt limitations have no effect upon slowing the growth of state debt

tax innovation in the states capitalizing on political opportunity this paper assesses the factors that prompt states to adopt taxes during the twentieth century we test five explanations of state tax innovation derived from the literature economic development fiscal health election cycle party control and regional diffusion using event history analysis a pooled cross sectional time series technique while little support is found for the economic development and party control explanations our empirical results are highly consistent with a political opportunity explanation of state tax adoptions 1 the presence of a long time until the next election 2 the existence of a fiscal crisis and 3 the presence of neighboring states that have previously adopted a tax all create opportunities for politicians to shield themselves from the political costs of supporting a tax increase and are all shown by empirical analysis to increase the probability of a tax adoption this empirical evidence is consistent across different tax instruments and different periods of analysis throughout the twentieth century

valuing the impact of large scale ecological change in a market the effect of climate change this paper establishes a methodology for valuing the impact of large scale ecological changes in a market given the large capital stocks inherent in most ecological systems the dynamic nature of most ecological change and the dynamic response of markets it is critical to build dynamic models to capture the resulting effects this paper demonstrates how to construct such a model using the impacts of climate change on u s timber markets as an example across a wide range of scenarios and models warming is predicted to expand timber supplies and thus benefit u s timber markets copyright 1998 by american economic association

an intergenerational transfer model of state debt financing as federal budget deficits and the overall national debt have risen in recent years scholarly attention to the causes and consequences of federal indebtedness has also increased much of that research has focused upon the intergenerational distributive effects of relying upon debt as opposed to tax financing considerably less attention has been directed toward debt financing by the american states despite the fact that such borrowing has increased steadily over the last thirty years though not with the dramatic suddenness that characterizes increases in federal borrowing regens and lauth 1988 this paper examines debt financing at the state level as a policy choice with important intergenerational consequences the analysis assumes that debt financing is the result of political decisions based upon a calculation of the economic interests of different demographic groups within each state elected officials are believed to weigh those interests in the light of their states electoral and legal environments borrowing from an argument by alex cukierman and allan meltzer this paper examines the proposition that a state s long term debt financing is likely to be sizeable in absolute per capita terms and relative to tax revenues when two conditions are met 1 the state has a large elderly population and 2 recent economic growth trends indicate that future generations of state taxpayers may have an easier time paying off currently incurred debt than current taxpayers would have paying off government obligations on a pay as you go basis under these conditions a large portion of a state s electorate is likely to be bequest constrained meaning that they are not willing to donate an inheritance of fully financed government facilities and services to successive generations instead they are willing to borrow from their heirs by forcing future taxpayers to pay the costs of current consumption of governmental benefits

bayesian learning growth and pollution abstract environmental problems such as climate change have great uncertainties current expectations are that uncertainties about climate change will be resolved quickly we examine this hypothesis theoretically and computationally we consider bayesian learning about the relationship between greenhouse gas levels and global mean temperature changes a key uncertainty learning is non trivial because of a stochastic shock to the realized temperature we find theoretically the expected learning time which is related to the variance of the shock and the emissions policy implying a tradeoff between the benefits of controlling emissions and information we imbed the learning model into an optimal growth model with a climate sector and solve the resulting dynamic program we find computationally that learning takes on average over 90 yr far longer than currently believed

assessing the economic cost of greenhouse induced sea level rise methods and application in support of a national survey the potential cost of sea level rise has dominated many of the recent estimates of the economic damage that greenhouse warming might inflict on the united states over the course of the next century the cost of coastal protection and abandonment accounted for more than 80 of the early nordhaus estimate of likely damages part of a review of the then existing evidence which suggested that an effective doubling of atmospheric carbon concentrations might cost 0 26 of annual gdp the proportion of total cost attributed to sea level rise was a much smaller 11 in cline but the sea level rise costs that he quoted were among the most broadly accepted of his longer list of damages the relative importance of sea level rise in assessing the potential cost of greenhouse warming and thus in evaluating the potential benefit of any mitigating strategy has brought the original damage estimates under closer scrutiny a series of integrated assessments of aggregate damages has begun each has noted that the titus estimates were based on the assumptions that all developed property would be protected and that all undeveloped property including wetlands would be abandoned these assumptions were supported by comparisons of the economic vulnerability estimatesmore produced by yohe and protection cost estimates produced by weggel but they are clearly too simplistic some of each type of property will be abandoned though in which case the true future economic cost of sacrificed property must also be added to the damage calculus across an equally diverse collection of coastal sites moreover the decision of when whether and for how long to protect any piece of property will involve accurately weighing the tradeoff between the cost of its protection and the economic cost of its abandonment a balancing calculation which must be conducted on a site by site basis the key is to consider the world as it is likely to be and not necessarily as it is now 26 refs 1 fig 7 tabs less

a real option based simulation model to evaluate investments in pump storage plants investments in pump storage plants are expected to grow especially due to their ability to store an excess of supply from wind power plants in order to evaluate these investments correctly the peculiarities of pump storage plants and the characteristics of liberalized power markets have to be considered the main characteristics of power markets are the strong power price volatility and the occurrence of prices spikes in this article a valuation model is developed capturing these aspects using power price simulation optimization of unit commitment and capital market theory this valuation model is able to value a future price based unit commitment planning that corresponds to future scope of actions also called real options the resulting real option value for the pump storage plant is compared with the traditional net present value approach because this approach is not able to evaluate scope of actions correctly it results in strongly smaller investment values and forces wrong investment decisions

the subnational politics of economic adjustment provincial politics and fiscal performance in argentina existing research has failed to address the impact of subnational politics on economic adjustment this article attempts to fill this gap by outlining theoretical reasons for anticipating policy divergences across levels of government and by offering three hypotheses to account for variation at the subnational level the authors explore these ideas on the basis of the argentine experience the study traces the impact of subnational policy on argentine economic adjustment and tests hypotheses about subnational policy variation on the basis of provincial fiscal data the authors findings underline the importance of subnational policy choice for national performance and suggest a revised understanding of the role of political competition in the economic adjustment process the authors find considerable evidence that interactions between party competition and the structure of the public sector shape provincial fiscal performance and thereby condition the capacity for economic adjustment at the national level

economics of electric energy storage for energy arbitrage and regulation in new york unlike markets for storable commodities electricity markets depend on the real time balance of supply and demand although much of the present day grid operates effectively without storage cost effective ways of storing electrical energy can help make the grid more efficient and reliable we investigate the economics of two emerging electric energy storage ees technologies sodium sulfur batteries and flywheel energy storage systems in new york state s electricity market the analysis indicates that there is a strong economic case for ees installations in the new york city region for applications such as energy arbitrage and that significant opportunities exist throughout new york state for regulation services benefits from deferral of system upgrades may be important in the decision to deploy ees market barriers currently make it difficult for energy limited ees such as flywheels to receive revenue for voltage regulation charging efficiency is more important to the economics of ees in a competitive electricity market than has generally been recognized