have trading rule profits in the currency markets declined over time abstract previous studies have reported mixed results regarding the success of technical trading rules in currency markets abnormal returns were observed in many studies using data up to the mid 1980s while more recent studies generally report less success for technical trading rules this paper tests whether moving average trading rule profits have declined over the period from 1971 to 2000 if so previous profits may represent a temporary inefficiency that has since been eliminated in the currency markets the hypothesis is tested using 18 exchange rate series over a longer time period than in previous studies rules are optimized for successive 5 year in sample periods from 1971 to 1995 and tested over subsequent 5 year out of sample periods results show that risk adjusted trading rule profits have declined over time from an average of over 3 in the late 1970s and early 1980s to about zero in the 1990s thus market inefficiencies reported in previous studies may have been only temporary inefficiencies

the inflation tax in a real business cycle model money is incorporated into a real business cycle model using a cash in advance constraint the model economy is used to analyze whether the business cycle is different in high inflation and low inflation economies and to analyze the impact of variability in the growth rate of money in addition the welfare cost of the inflation tax is measured and the steady state properties of high and low inflation economies are compared

automate the identification of technical patterns a k nearest neighbour model approach to explore profitable patterns in historical stock prices ordinarily a promising pattern is selected by rule of thumb and then its performance is verified by comparing the conditional return of t

currency and credit in a private information economy in an environment with private information spatial separation and limited communication a currency like object and more standard named credits can be distinguished the credit objects can be used among agents in an enduring relationship that is among agents with known trading histories whereas the currency like object must be used among relative strangers in this environment collectively determined pareto optimal rules make the level of the currency like object and the mix of currency to named credits responsive to individual needs and to economywide states total indebtedness is determined by the number of lenders that is by preference or demand shocks and the mix of currency to credits is determined by transaction patterns among the agents

trade credit in a monetary economy abstract this paper examines the importance of financial and technological stochastic trends in the context of a stochastic dynamic general equilibrium monetary economy with multiple means of payment in contrast to earlier empirical work we find support for both a long run substitution condition between money trade credit and interest rates as well as a long run transactions demand for alternative payments media consistent with real business cycle frameworks

welfare costs of inflation and interest bearing money this work extends the lucas analysis of the welfare cost of inflation to an economy with interest bearing deposits lower and upper bounds to lucas measure of the welfare cost of inflation are also provided the upper bound is shown to lie between lucas measure of the welfare cost of inflation and the area under the money demand curve starting with martin bailey in 1956 the literature on welfare costs of inflation has recently been enriched by contributions among others by lucas 1993 2000 dotsey and ireland 1996 and gillman 1993 1995 it remains yet to adequately integrate the banking sector in this process this work extends lucas analysis of the welfare cost of inflation developed in the mccallumgoodfriend 1987 framework to an economy with interest bearing deposits lower and upper bounds to lucas measure of the welfare cost of inflation are also provided the upper bound is shown to lie between lucas measure and the area under the money demand curve which characterizes bailey s method 1956 for calculating the welfare cost of inflation

liquidity effects and the monetary transmission mechanism several recent papers provide strong empirical support for the view that an expansionary monetary policy disturbance generates a persistent decrease in interest rates and a persistent increase in output and employment existing quantitative general equilibrium models which allow for capital accumulation are inconsistent with this view there does exist a recently developed class of general equilibrium models which can rationalize the contemporaneous response of interest rates output and employment to a money supply shock however a key shortcoming of these models is that they cannot rationalize persistent liquidity effects this paper discusses the basic frictions and mechanisms underlying this new class of models and investigates one avenue for generating persistence we argue that once a simplified version of the model in christiano and eichenbaum 1991 is modified to allow for extremely small costs of adjusting sectoral flow of funds positive money shocks generate long lasting quantitatively significant liquidity effects as well as persistent increases in aggregate economic activity

money and crime in a cash in advance model a cash in advance model in which holding money is risky is constructed to study the coexistence of multiple means of payment and monetary policy implications in steady state equilibrium the marginal rate of substitution of cash goods for credit goods depends on the crime rate as well as the nominal interest rate credit may be in use although the return on money is not positive with theft a money injection reduces the crime rate and makes cash more preferable for a greater variety of goods inflation improves welfare however without theft inflation makes credit more preferable and decreases welfare in general the friedman rule is not optimal

inflation and welfare in a monetary economy it is in everyone s private interest to try to get someone else to hold non interest bearing cash and reserves but someone has to hold it all so these efforts must simply cancel out all of us spend several hours per year in this effort and employ thousands of talented and highly trained people to help us these person hours are simply thrown away wasted on a task that should not have to be performed at all

market timing a test of a charting heuristic abstract we implement a graphical or charting heuristic the bull flag which accepts a particular pattern of historical prices as a signal for a future market price increase test it with several years of new york stock exchange composite index history and find positive results the results support the validity of technical analysis for stock market price prediction and fail to confirm the efficient markets hypothesis

money as the mechanism of exchange abstract the existence and use of money remained an embarrassing puzzle for monetary analysis we observe over man s history that social groups without generally accepted media of exchange exhibit poor survival characteristics most social groups do not use assets or commodities at random in the execution of exchanges one observes that a small subset of assets is dominantly used in transactions these transaction dominating assets are usually referred to as money the literature contains many suggestive attempts to explain the emergence and role of money the classic writers made passing references in somewhat pictorial language to the extension markets and increasing labor productivity induced by the use of a general medium of exchange this idea has never been systematically developed however karl brunner 1971

trading volume and cross autocorrelations in stock returns this paper finds that trading volume is a significant determinant of the lead lag patterns observed in stock returns daily and weekly returns on high volume portfolios lead returns on low volume portfolios controlling for firm size nonsynchronous trading or low volume portfolio autocorrelations cannot explain these findings these patterns arise because returns on low volume portfolios respond more slowly to information in market returns the speed of adjustment of individual stocks confirms these findings overall the results indicate that differential speed of adjustment to information is a significant source of the cross autocorrelation patterns in short horizon stock returns both academics and practitioners have long been interested in the role played by trading volume in predicting future stock returns 1 in this paper we examine the interaction between trading volume and the predictability of short horizon stock returns specifically that due to lead lag cross autocorrelations in stock returns our investigation indicates that trading volume is a significant determinant of the cross autocorrelation patterns in stock returns 2 we find that daily or weekly returns of stocks with high trading volume lead daily or weekly returns of stocks with low trading volume additional tests indicate that this effect is related to the tendency of high volume stocks to respond rapidly and low volume stocks to respond slowly to marketwide information

monopolistic competition increasing returns to scale and the welfare costs of inflation abstract this paper introduces monopolistic competition and increasing returns to scale into a monetary real business cycle rbc model to re estimate the welfare costs of inflation we first calibrate the model and show that it is capable of generating the observed aggregate fluctuations even when there are no shocks to the fundamentals in particular we demonstrate that this model matches the stylized u s business cycles facts as well as two more standard models then we find that in this model the scale parameters and the intensity of competition significantly affects the welfare cost of inflation specifically the cost is considerably higher than that in a standard rbc model with competitive markets and constant returns moreover the stronger the increasing returns and the less intense the competition the higher the welfare costs these results are confirmed in a number of model specifications

the statistical distribution of exchange rates empirical evidence and economic implications the abundant evidence that changes in exchange rates have distributions with fatter tails than the normal distribution has led researchers to consider non normal distributions including the student the stable paretian and mixtures of distributions this paper compares the empirical fits of three non normal candidates and the normal distribution for daily changes in the logarithms of exchange rates using maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters and chi square goodness of fit tests the student and mixture of two normals provide the best fits but there is evidence that the distribution parameters may vary over time

transaction services inflation and welfare this paper is motivated by empirical observations on the comovements of currency velocity inflation and the relative size of the credit services sector we document these comovements and incorporate into a monetary growth model a credit services sector that provides services that help people economize on money our model makes two new contributions first we show that direct evidence on the appropriately defined credit service sector for the united states is consistent with the welfare cost measured using an estimated money demand schedule second we provide estimates of the welfare cost of inflation that have some new features

a banking explanation of the us velocity of money 1919 2004 the paper shows that us gdp velocity of m1 money has exhibited long cycles around a 1 25 per year upward trend during the 1919 2004 period it explains the velocity cycles through shocks constructed from a dsge model and annual time series data ingram et al 1994 model velocity is stable along the balanced growth path which features endogenous growth and decentralized banking hat produces exchange credit positive shocks to credit productivity and money supply increase velocity as money demand falls while positive goods productivity shock raises temporary output and velocity the paper explains such velocity volatility at both business cycle and long run frequencies with filtered velocity turning negative starting during the 1930s and the 1987 crashes and again around 2003 results suggest that the money and credit shocks appear to be more important for velocity during less stable times and the goods productivity shock more important during stable times

existence and uniqueness of equilibrium in distorted dynamic economies with capital and labor abstract in this paper we provide a set of sufficient conditions under which recursive competitive equilibrium exists and is unique for a large class of distorted dynamic equilibrium models with capital and elastic labor supply we develop a lattice based approach to the problem the class of economies for which we are able to obtain our existence and uniqueness result is considerably larger than those considered in previous work we conclude by applying the new results to some important examples of monetary economies often used in applied work journal of economic literature classification numbers c62 d51 d90 e10

a quantitative analysis of inflation as a tax on the underground economy abstract inflation rates are more dispersed and are persistently higher in developing countries this paper quantifies the importance of the public finance motive for inflation in the presence of a tax evading sector the underground economy the approach is motivated by the observation that the underground economy is especially large in poor countries the analysis builds on a general equilibrium monetary model with two production sectors where income in one of the sectors cannot be taxed a benevolent government finances its budget using an optimal combination of the income tax rate and the inflation rate the model is first calibrated to the u s economy and is then used for a cross country simulation the resulting relationships between the size of an underground economy inflation rate income tax rate and the share of seigniorage in the government revenue rationalize the cross country data quantitatively well

institutional corruption and election fraud evidence from a field experiment in afghanistan w e investigate the relationship between political networks weak institutions and election fraud during the 2010 parliamentary election in afghanistan combining i data on political connections between candidates and election officials ii a nationwide controlled evaluation of a novel monitoring technology and iii direct measurements of aggregation fraud we find considerable evidence of aggregation fraud in favor of connected candidates and that the announcement of a new monitoring technology reduced theft of election materials by about 60 percent and vote counts for connected candidates by about 25 percent the results have implications for electoral competition and are potentially actionable for policymakers jel c93 d02 d72 k42 o17

the welfare costs of moderate inflations in the recent past the view that a little bit of inflation was good for the economy was widely held the phillips curve in its earlier incarnations implied that moderate inflation was worth tolerating because it would permit lower unemployment this justification for tolerating inflation has long since been abandoned by economists and policymakers because both theory and experience showed it to be false nevertheless one legacy of this era seems to be a fairly widespread tolerance for moderate inflation recently there has been much discussion of removing this inflationary bias by passing legislation that would require the federal reserve to target zero inflation in this paper we examine some of the consequences of achieving that goal we appraise the revenue and welfare costs of policies designed to reduce moderate inflation rates to zero much has been written about why government policies may have an inflationary bias in this paper we don t address the issue of what motivates governments to inflate implicit in our analysis however is the notion that one important motive for inflation is the revenue raising potential of the inflation tax it would be difficult to argue that the inflation tax constitutes an important revenue source for the united states one indirect and very imperfect measure of this would be contributions by the federal lleserve to the treasury in recent years those rebates have amounted to

on inflation as a regressive consumption tax abstract evidence on the portfolio holdings and transaction patterns of households suggests that the burden of inflation is not evenly distributed we build a monetary growth model consistent with key features of cross sectional household data and use this framework to study the distributional impact of inflation at the aggregate level our model economy behaves similar to standard monetary growth models within the representative agent abstraction inflation has however important distributional effects since it is effectively a regressive consumption tax thus neglecting the distributional consequences of inflation may prove misleading in assessing the effects of inflation in our economy

welfare costs of inflation in a dynamic economy with search unemployment abstract we present a monetary general equilibrium model with labor market frictions in the form of search unemployment which is calibrated for the us economy interestingly both employment and output may even increase with the rate of inflation depending on the elasticity of labor supply considering the transition dynamics following a change in the monetary policy the optimal quarterly inflation rate is found to amount to approximately 0 6 in the benchmark case a reduction of the inflation rate from its current level to its optimal value only results in small welfare gains equal to 0 08 of total consumption

optimal fiscal and monetary policy in an economy without capital abstract this paper is concerned with the structure and time consistency of optimal fiscal and monetary policy in an economy without capital in a dynamic context optimal taxation means distributing tax distortions over time in a welfare maximizing way for a barter economy our main finding is that with debt commitments of sufficiently rich maturity structure an optimal policy if one exists is time consistent in a monetary economy the idea of optimal taxation must be broadened to include an inflation tax and we find that time consistency does not carry over an optimal inflation tax requires commitment by rules in a sense that has no counterpart in the dynamic theory of ordinary excise taxes the reason time consistency fails in a monetary economy is that nominal assets should from a welfare maximizing point of view always be taxed away via an immediate inflation in a kind of capital levy this emerges as a new possibility when money is introduced into an economy without capital

the optimal inflation path in a sidrauski type model with uncertainty abstract in this paper it is shown that in a sidrauski type model with uncertainty the chicago rule remains valid as a prescription for the average rate of inflation although there is a systematic difference between the perfect foresight and the uncertainty case quantitatively however the difference turns out to be very small the paper shows how to calculate the optimal monetary policy as a function of the state variables using the method of parameterized expectations in terms of expected utility the optimal policy is as good as the simple policy that reduces the money supply at the rate of time preference

exchange rates forecasting local or global methods exchange rates forecasters usually assume that local methods nearest neighbour dominate the global ones neural networks or genetic programming for example in this article first we use different generalizations of the standard nearest neighbours to predict the dynamic evolution of the yen us and pound sterling us exchange rates one period ahead second we compare our results with those employing global methods such as neural networks genetic programming data fusion and evolutionary neural networks finally we find out the existence of predictable structures periods ahead our results reveal a slightly but significant forecasting ability for one period ahead which is lost when more periods ahead are considered and no important predictive differences between local and global methods have been found

money and asset prices in a cash in advance economy an asset pricing model with money introduced via a cash in advance constraint is presented the monetary velocity is variable hence money demand does not obey the trivial quantity equation the effects of disturbances in output and money growth on real balances the price level and interest rates are examined monetary policy has effects on real asset prices the fisher relation and the premium on nominal bonds are discussed the precise role of the timing of information and transactions for properties of price levels and interest rates are clarified

extensive margins and the demand for money at low interest rates we argue that the relevant monetary decision for the majority of u s households is not the fraction of assets to be held in interest bearing form but whether to hold any such assets at all we call this the decision to adopt the financial technology we show that the key variable governing the adoption decision is the product of the interest rate times the total amount of assets this implies that the interest elasticity of household money demand at low interest rates can be estimated from the variation in asset holdings in a cross section of households rather than historical interest rate variations we do so with the 1989 survey of consumer finances we find that a the elasticity of money demand is very small when the interest rate is small b the probability that a household holds any amount of interest bearing assets is positively related to the level of financial assets and c the cost of adopting financial technologies is negatively related to participation in a pension program at intere

measuring the welfare costs of inflation in a life cycle model abstract in a neoclassical growth model with life cycle households in which money is held to satisfy a cash in advance constraint the optimal steady state inflation rate is absurdly high in excess of 20 lump sum age independent money injections twist and flatten the lifetime profile of utility making this profile look more like the one that would be chosen by a planner the cost of monetary finance of lump sum payments is the distortion introduced to the labor leisure choice

the welfare cost of inflation in a cash in advance economy with costly credit the paper presents a modification of the lucas stokey 1983 cash in advance economy in which the representative consumer decides based on relative prices which goods to buy with cash and which with costly credit an explicit baumol 1952 condition emerges that guides this consumer choice deriving and estimating a closed form welfare cost function in an example economy the paper shows that the welfare cost of inflation depends on the margins of substitution the consumer avoids inflation through costly credit and faces higher welfare costs of inflation than in standard cash in advance economies

seasonal cycles business cycles and monetary policy abstract this paper presents a dynamic general equilibrium model that is consistent with both seasonal and business cycle facts in the u s economy the model features consumption durability and a transaction technology both crucial in accounting for seasonal patterns of nominal variables a calibrated version of the model is used to quantitatively evaluate welfare consequences of three alternative monetary policy rules 1 the fed s historical policy that smooths nominal interest rates at the seasonal frequency but not at the business cycle frequency 2 a constant money growth rule and 3 a constant interest rate rule we find that the historical policy is associated with higher welfare than both alternatives

money velocity in an endogenous growth business cycle with credit shocks the explanation of velocity has been based in substitution and income effects since keynes s 1923 interest rate explanation and friedman s 1956 application of the permanent income hypothesis to money demand modern real business cycle theory relies on a goods productivity shocks to mimic the data s procyclic velocity feature as in friedman s explanation while finding money shocks unimportant and not integrating financial innovation explanations this paper sets the model within endogenous growth and adds credit shocks it models velocity more closely with significant roles for money shocks and credit shocks along with the goods productivity shocks endogenous growth is key to the construction of the money and credit shocks since they have similar effects on velocity through substitution effects from changes in the nominal interest rate and in the cost of financial intermediation but opposite effects upon growth through permanent income effects that are absent with exogenous growth

on cash in advance models of money demand and asset pricing this paper shows how a cash in advance model of money can be written in a way that combines a simple yet empirically defensible money demand function with an asset pricing equation that is similar to the standard barter economy euler equations return premia are determined as in the barter exchange model except that a short term risk free nominal interest rate enters into the first order conditions in special cases asset prices satisfy the barter economy euler equations exactly in the empirical analysis the interest rate factor adds some explanatory power but both the barter and the monetary asset pricing model perform rather poorly copyright 1991 by ohio state university press

on the profitability of technical trading rules based on artificial neural networks evidence from the madrid stock market in this paper we investigate the profitability of a simple technical trading rule based on artificial neural networks anns our results based on applying this investment strategy to the general index of the madrid stock market suggest that in absence of trading costs the technical trading rule is always superior to a buy and hold strategy for both bear market and stable market episodes on the other hand we find that the buy and hold strategy generates higher returns than the trading rule based on ann only for a bull market subperiod 2000 elsevier science s a all rights reserved

electricity market price forecasting based on weighted nearest neighbors techniques this paper presents a simple technique to forecast next day electricity market prices based on the weighted nearest neighbors methodology first it is explained how the relevant parameters defining the adopted model are obtained such parameters have to do with the window length of the time series and with the number of neighbors chosen for the prediction then results corresponding to the spanish electricity market during 2002 are presented and discussed finally the performance of the proposed method is compared with that of recently published techniques

money and interest in a cash in advance economy the authors analyze an aggregative general equilibrium model in which the use of money is motivated by a cash in advance constraint applied to purchases of a subset of consumption goods the system is subject to both real and monetary shocks which are economy wide and observed by all they develop methods for verifying the existence of characterizing and explicitly calculating equilibria copyright 1987 by the econometric society

contrasting models of the effect of inflation on growth the paper formulates a nesting model for studying the theoretical literature on inflation and endogenous growth it analyses different classes of endogenous growth models with different usage of physical and human capital with different exchange technologies first the paper shows that a broad array of models can all generate significant negative effects of inflation on growth second it shows that these models can be differentiated primarily by the fact whether there is a tobin type effect of inflation and also whether the inflation growth effect becomes weaker as the inflation rate rises a non linearity or stays essentially constant over the range of inflation rates the paper compares these features of the models to empirical evidence as a way to summarize the efficacy of the models

on the complementarity of money and credit i propose a model where agents choose to conduct their business using two payment instruments money and bilateral credit a friction in the timing of transactions rationalizes the use of both instruments and makes it optimal for agents to use money as a means of settlement for credit money and credit complement each other with anticipated inflation complementarity implies that the credit to money ratio decreases with inflation

linear non linear and essential foreign exchange rate prediction with simple technical trading rules abstract this paper investigates the predictability of spot foreign exchange rate returns from past buy sell signals of the simple technical trading rules by using the nearest neighbors and the feedforward network regressions the optimal choices for nearest neighbors hidden units in a feedforward network and the training set are determined by the cross validation method which minimizes the mean square error although this method is computationally expensive the results indicate that it has the advantage of avoiding overfitting in noisy environments and indicate that simple technical rules provide significant forecast improvements for the current returns over the random walk model

liquidity preference and financial intermediation we examine the characteristics of optimal monetary policies in a general equilibrium model with incomplete markets markets are incomplete because of uninsured preference uncertainty and because productive capital is traded infrequently rational individuals are willing to hold a liquid asset money at a premium monetary policy interacts with existing flnancial institutions to determine this premium as well as the level of precautionary holdings we show that inflation is expansionary and that the optimal inflation rate is positive if there is no operative banking system the tobin effect otherwise efficiency requires that money be undominated in its rate of retum the friedman rule we analyse the preference for liquidity and evaluate the effects of monetary policy in a framework where individuals optimize and goods and asset markets are competitive liquidity needs of individuals and characteristics of assets are consequences of the structure of preferences technology and information equilibrium is compatible with diiferences in the rates of retum on assets differing in liquidity with divergences between household savings and aggregate investment in productive capital and distortion of household consumption plans we examine how these quantities are determined in altemative financial environments the extent to which monetary or interest rate policies are effective and desirable and the relative efficiency of altemative instruments which serve private liquidity needs we find that monetary policy is effective and infiation is expansionary if the consumption plans of individuals are constrained by the lack of liquidity at the same time such expansion can be welfare inferior intermediation which allows liquid assets to be issued against productive investment is both feasible and desirable unlike infiation intermediation achieves welfare enhancing expansion this allows a comparison of the tobin effect tobin 1965 and the friedman mle friedman 1969 in a general equilibrium model cmdely speaking the first indicates that infiation is desirable while the other claims that defiation is the difference as we show depends on the degree of intermediation money and productive capital are simultaneously held by individuals even when money has a lower rate of retum this is due to the fact that money is liquid it can be used to pay for goods at any time and in all states of nature capital on the other

why the long term auto correlation has not been eliminated by arbitragers evidences from nymex abstract the efficient market hypothesis claims that market prices follow the random walk and that any predictable trend will be eliminated by arbitragers in a short period of time however the fractal market hypothesis disagrees asserting that long term memory can persist in the market to understand why this conflict exists we propose a method to explore the long term market trend using the local hurst exponent and seek to obtain the extra yield performance is evaluated by using both a simulation and the high frequency 5 min data and the daily data the result indicates that the model performs well with the uni fractal series in the simulation however the model shows limited predictive abilities with the data from the real market due to the multi fractal characteristics although the long term trends persist in the markets and can be identified with statistical significance traders cannot beat the market because of the time varying feature and because the strength of long term memory is not strong enough to cover the transaction costs the result reconciles the long term auto correlations with emh in a quantitative manner

inflation and balanced path growth with alternative payment mechanisms the paper shows that contrary to conventional wisdom an endogenous growth economy with human capital and alternative payment mechanisms can robustly explain major facets of the long run inflation experience a negative inflation growth relation is explained including a striking nonlinearity found re peatedly in empirical studies a set of tobin 1965 effects are also explained and further linked in magnitude to the growth effects through the interest elasticity of money demand undis closed previously this link helps fill out the intuition of how the inflation experience can be plausibly explained in a robust fashion with a model extended to include credit as a payment mechanism

the monetary transmission mechanism in a general equilibrium version of the baumol tobin model abstract the paper analyzes the effects of financial shocks on an economy in which individuals hold money to make purchases and in which the frequency of conversions of other assets into money is endogenous the paper thus extends the work of sanford grossman and laurence weiss 1983 and julio rotemberg 1984 by allowing agents to choose the timing of trips to the bank there are two major conclusions first the economy s response to a nominal interest rate shock exhibits large cycles second the economy s response differs dramatically both qualitatively and quantitatively from its response when the timing of trips is fixed

the welfare cost of inflation in general equilibrium abstract this paper presents a general equilibrium monetary model in which inflation distorts a variety of marginal decisions although individually none of the distortions is very large they combine to yield substantial welfare cost estimates a sustained 4 percent inflation like that experienced in the us since 1983 costs the economy the equivalent of 0 41 percent of output per year when currency is identified as the relevant definition of money and over 1 percent of output per year when m1 is defined as money the results illustrate how the traditional partial equilibrium approach can seriously underestimate the true cost of inflation

the demand for bank reserves and other monetary aggregates the paper starts with haslag s 1998 model of the bank s demand for reserves and reformulates it with a cash in advance approach for both financial intermediary and consumer this gives a demand for a base of cash plus reserves that is not sensitive to who gets the inflation tax transfer it extends the model to formulate a demand for demand deposits yielding an m1 type demand and then includes exchange credit yielding an m2 type demand based on the comparative statics of the model it provides an interpretation of the evidence on monetary aggregates this explanation relies on the nominal interest as well as technology factors of the banking sector e31 e13 o42

technical analysis and the spanish stock exchange testing the rsi macd momentum and stochastic rules using spanish market companies the aim of this research is to examine the result of the application of the indicators relative strength index rsi moving average convergence divergence macd momentum and stochastic in different companies of the spanish continuous market by using these indicators it is intended to give purchase and sale recommendations to small investors the generation of great capital gains depends on the type of the stock exchange company and the indicator which is being used in addition this research solves the problems in case of ambiguity in the indicators for the traders

measuring the contribution of durable goods to the welfare cost of inflation in this paper we measure the contribution of durable goods to the welfare cost of inflation in the context of an endogenous growth model with durable and nondurable goods where purchases of the latter require only a partial cash payment compared with the former unlike existing measures our proposed welfare measure is computationally efficient and relatively easy to implement we find that durability adds a significant component to the welfare costs of inflation

a simple general equilibrium version of the baumol tobin model this paper presents a simple general equilibrium model that includes optimizing choices of the frequency of trips to the bank the model is used to analyze the effect of inflation on the capital stock the interest elasticity of money demand the optimum quantity of money and the welfare costs of inflationary finance

naive trading rules in financial markets and wiener kolmogorov prediction theory a study of technical analysis this article attempts a formal study of technical analysis which is a class of informal prediction rules often preferred to wiener kolmogorov prediction theory by participants of financial markets yet wiener kolmogorov prediction theory provides optimal linear forecasts this article investigates two issues that may explain this contradiction first the article attempts to devise formal algorithms to represent various forms of technical analysis in order to see if these rules are well defined second the article discusses under which conditions if any technical analysis might capture those properties of stock prices left unexploited by linear models of wiener kolmogorov theory copyright 1991 by university of chicago press