banking crises and short and medium term output losses in emerging and developing countries the role of structural and policy variables summary the aim of this paper is to assess the dynamic impact of banking crises on output for a panel of developing economies using an unbalanced panel of 159 countries from 1970 to 2006 the paper shows that banking crises produce significant output losses output losses are larger for relatively richer economies characterized by a higher level of financial deepening and larger current account imbalances flexible exchange rates fiscal and monetary policy and liquidity support policies have been found to attenuate the effect of the crises

option pricing with downward sloping demand curves the case of supply chain options this article investigates the role of option contracts in a supply chain when the demand curve is downward sloping we consider call put options that provide the retailer with the right to reorder return goods at a fixed price we show that the introduction of option contracts causes the wholesale price to increase and the volatility of the retail price to decrease in general options are not zero sum games conditions are derived under which the manufacturer prefers to use options when this happens the retailer is also better off if the uncertainty in the demand curve is low however if the uncertainty is sufficiently high then the introduction of option contracts alters the equilibrium prices in a way that hurts the retailer

political and economic determinants of the likelihood of privatizing argentine public banks abstract this paper discusses the political economy of bank privatization in argentina following institutional changes related to the implementation of the convertibility plan and to the tequila crisis the empirical results strongly support the hypothesis that political incentives affect the likelihood of privatization we find 1 poorly performing banks were more likely to be privatized 2 overstaffing tended to reduce the probability of privatization 3 large banks were less likely to be privatized and 4 higher levels of provincial unemployment and higher shares of public employees reduced the probability of privatization although the hypotheses were tested for a specific industry in a specific country which makes it possible to control for enterprise performance and institutional characteristics it seems reasonable that similar results might hold in other industries and countries

rational ponzi games when can a government run a rational ponzi game i e issue debt and never pay back any interest or principal the transversalit y condition of each individual implies that such schemes require an i nfinity of lenders given this horizons are unimportant ponzi games cannot be ruled out by assuming that agents have infinite horizons the authors point out both the basic similarity of and some key diff erences between rational ponzi games and asset price bubbles or fiat money regarding international debt the analysis implies that what matters for the feasibility of rational ponzi games are conditions in the lenders not the borrowers economy copyright 1988 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

two remarks on the property rights literature we first point out that the recent property rights literature is based on three assumptions 1 that contracts are always subject to renegotiation 2 that the exercise of a property right confers a private benefit and 3 that parties are risk neutral building on hart moore 1999 we provide conditions under which an optimal contract consists of nothing more than an assignment of property rights we also examine the robustness of some of the literature s standard predictions about asset ownership to the introduction of mechanisms for eliciting parties ex post willingness to pay for the assets such as options or financial markets to illustrate the issue we revisit the hart moore 1990 proposition that joint ownership is suboptimal and argue that ownership by a single party is dominated by joint ownership with put options

the residential market of hong kong rational or irrational the current study attempts to investigate the proposition that hong kong residential market is only driven by a rational speculative bubble in addition to fundamentals the fundamentals are chosen according to the present value model but will account for latent private information potential roles of other public information are also explored the study finds that the influence of the rational bubble on the price growth is highly significant however in contrast to seoul and singapore housing market xiao 2006 xiao and huang 2007 neither the fundamentals nor the rational bubble can explain much of the price growth in the market of concern this finding leaves large room for questioning whether or not this market is more prone to irrationality than its counterparts in seoul and singapore

the use of blanket guarantees in banking crises policymakers often use guarantees on bank liabilities to prevent or contain bank runs during systemic banking crises but their success has been debated using a sample of 42 episodes of banking crises this paper finds that blanket guarantees do help to reduce liquidity pressures on banks but only partially since they do not stem withdrawals from non residents withdrawals following the announcement of guarantees are much more pronounced for non resident liabilities than for foreign currency denominated deposits which may also be held by residents suggesting that the results on non residents are not driven by foreign currency risk but by concerns about the government s ability and commitment to honor the guarantee to non resident liability holders

deregulation liberalization and consolidation of the mexican banking system effects on competition este articulo analiza la evolucion de la competencia en el sistema bancario mexicano en el periodo 1993 2005 periodo de desregulacion liberalizacion y consolidacion del sector para ello se utilizan dos medidas de competencia derivadas de la teoria de la organizacion industrial el indice de lerner y el estadistico h de panzar y rosse la evidencia empirica no permite rechazar la existencia de competencia monopolistica el indice de lerner muestra una disminucion en la rivalidad competitiva en el mercado de los depositos y un incremento en el mercado de los prestamos observandose una estrategia de subsidiacion cruzada entre ambos mercados los resultados obtenidos cuestionan la efectividad de las medidas hasta ahora implementadas dirigidas a incrementar la competencia en la banca mexicana

privatization competition and supercompetition in the mexican commercial banking system abstract much literature before and after the privatization of mexico s commercial banking system in 1991 1992 argued that the system was collusive and noncompetitive and would likely continue to be for years banks would collude to underloan so that at least in comparison with what would happen in a competitive system they could overcharge because a parallel literature on lending after bank privatization suggests that the problem is often not too little but too much we resolved to test for competitive behavior in the mexican banking system using an empirical approach developed by shaffer econom lett 29 1989 321 j money credit bank 25 1993 49 federal reserve bank of philadelphia working paper no 93 28r we find a structural break in the middle of the privatization period that signals the start of an episode of what shaffer calls supercompetitive behavior in such a supercompetition banks run at levels of output where marginal cost exceeds marginal revenue this behavior is consistent with a struggle in which banks take losses now because they think the market share they get in the bargain offers a positive present value of expected future return the behavior can also be consistent with just the sort of banking crises that ensued in mexico

mexico s experiments with bank privatization and liberalization 1991 2003 during the 1990s mexico conducted two experiments with its banking system in the first experiment 1991 96 it privatized the banks this experiment took place with weak institutions to enforce contract rights it also took place without institutions that encourage prudent behavior by bankers the result was reckless behavior by banks and a collapse of the banking system in the second experiment 1997 2003 mexico reformed many of the institutions that promoted bank monitoring and it opened up the industry to foreign investment it was less successful however in reforming the institutions that promote the enforcement of contract rights the result was that bankers behaved prudently but prudent behavior in the context of weak contract rights implies that banks are reluctant to extend credit to firms and households

bank ownership and performance does politics matter this paper uses a new dataset to reassess the relationship between bank ownership and bank performance providing separate estimations for developing and industrial countries it finds that state owned banks located in developing countries tend to have lower profitability and higher costs than their private counterparts and that the opposite is true for foreign owned banks the paper finds no strong correlation between ownership and performance for banks located in industrial countries next in order to test whether the differential in performance between public and private banks is driven by political considerations the paper checks whether this differential widens during election years it finds strong support for this hypothesis

do public banks compete with private banks evidence from concentrated local markets in brazil we measure the competitive effect of public banks in concentrated local markets in brazil using branch location patterns we employ variation in market size number and identity of competitors to determine how the conduct of private banks is affected by the entry of a public bank we find that the market size needed to sustain a private bank branch is 35 larger if a private competitor is present and is not significantly affected by the presence of a public bank these results suggest that the presence of a public bank does not affect conduct of private banks

asset bubbles monetary policy and bank lending in japan an empirical investigation asset prices rose rapidly in japan during the latter half of the 1980s and then declined as quickly in the early 1990s their behaviour is consistent with the existence of speculative bubbles in these markets this paper investigates the dynamic relationships among stock and land prices in japan output and monetary and bank lending variables the results of causality tests and variance decompositions are reported for two time periods 1972 1501985 and 1986 1501991 the price bubbles affected each other in the first period although the size of this impact is dependent on the choice of variables in the vars in the bubble period there is strong evidence that the stock market bubble was determined by its own past and also influenced the land market bubble accounting for a significant proportion of the variance of the land market bubble however neither output the money supply nor the lending variables were significant in the causality tests or in explaining the variation of the two assset bubbles

mainstreaming microfinance social performance management or mission drift summary what scope is there for the pursuit of explicit development goals in the context of increasing integration of specialized microfinance and commercial banking sectors this question and the idea of mission drift is first analyzed using a model that distinguishes between institutions financial and social performance possibilities preferences and assessment systems the model is used to review findings from action research with an international sample of poverty oriented microfinance institutions that suggest some simple steps for improved social performance management it is then used to illustrate the relationship between social and financial performance more widely across the retail financial services sector and to offer pointers for more policy analysis at this level

fiscal policy and financial market movements abstract this paper estimates fiscal policy reaction function in order to investigate the links between financial market movements and fiscal policy outcomes an increase in asset prices affects in a positive and significant manner primary balances with the response reflecting both an increase in government revenues and a fall in government spending the most important impact on fiscal balances is due to changes in residential property prices changes in equity and commercial property prices are also important determinants of fiscal balances our findings suggest that the steepening of the slope of the yield curve contributes to expenditure based fiscal discipline

do depositors punish banks for bad behavior market discipline deposit insurance and banking crises this paper empirically investigates two issues largely unexplored by the literature on market discipline we evaluate the interaction between market discipline and deposit insurance and the impact of banking crises on market discipline we focus on the experiences of argentina chile and mexico during the 1980s and 1990s we find that depositors discipline banks by withdrawing deposits and by requiring higher interest rates deposit insurance does not appear to diminish the extent of market discipline aggregate shocks affect deposits and interest rates during crises regardless of bank fundamentals and investors responsiveness to bank risk taking increases in the aftermath of crises

bank privatization in sub saharan africa the case of uganda commercial bank previous empirical analyses have found that bank privatizations are more successful when the government fully relinquishes control when the bank is privatized to a strategic investor and when foreign owned banks are allowed to participate in the bidding the privatization of uganda commercial bank ucb to the south african bank stanbic met all these criteria suggesting that it is a likely candidate for success but other features suggest reasons for caution ucb dominated the ugandan banking sector prior to privatization and the institutional environment in uganda was less favorable than in many of the middle income countries looked at in earlier empirical studies despite these concerns the privatization appears to have been relatively successful the portfolio of the privatized bank which was cleaned prior to sale remains relatively strong and profitability and credit growth are now on par with other ugandan banks though market segmentation remains a concern since stanbic faces little or no direct competition in many remote areas some early results suggest that access to credit has improved for some hard to serve groups

foreign owned banks in the united states earning market share or buying it foreign owned u s banks have been chronically unprofitable for more than a decade the authors employ a profit efficiency model introduced by allen n berger diana hancock and david b humphrey 1993 modified to be less sensitive to variations in asset size to estimate the relative profit efficiency of 62 foreign owned and 240 u s owned banks between 1985 and 1990 their results indicate that foreign owned banks were significantly less profit efficient than were u s owned banks primarily due to foreign banks reliance on expensive purchased funds for foreign owned banks the results are consistent with a strategy of sacrificing profits in exchange for fast growth and increased market share during the 1980s copyright 1996 by ohio state university press

corporate governance of banks a survey this paper reviews the empirical literature on the corporate governance of banks we start by highlighting the main differences between banks and nonfinancial firms and focus on three characteristics that make banks special i regulation ii the capital structure of banks and iii the complexity and opacity of their business and structure next we discuss the characteristics of corporate governance in banks and how they differ from the governance of nonfinancial firms we then review the evidence on three governance mechanisms i boards ii ownership structures and iii executive compensation our review suggests that some of the empirical regularities found in the literature on corporate governance of nonfinancial institutions such as the positive negative association between board independence size and performance do not hold for banks also existing work provides no conclusive results regarding the relationship between different governance mechanisms and various measures for banks performance we discuss potential explanations for these mixed results

market discipline and deposit insurance reform in japan abstract on april 1 2002 the japanese government lifted a blanket guarantee of all deposits and began limiting the coverage of time deposits this paper uses this deposit insurance reform as a natural experiment to investigate the relationship between deposit insurance coverage and market discipline i find that the reform raised the sensitivity of interest rates on deposits and that of deposit quantity to default risk in addition the interest rate differentials between partially insured large time deposits and fully insured ordinary deposits increased for risky banks these results suggest that the deposit insurance reform enhanced market discipline in japan i also find however that too big to fail tbtf policy became a more important determinant of interest rates and deposit allocation after the reform thereby partially offsetting the positive effects of the deposit insurance reform on overall market discipline

too big to fail some empirical evidence on the causes and consequences of public banking interventions in the uk abstract during the 2007 09 financial crisis the banking sector received an extraordinary level of public support in this empirical paper we examine the determinants of a number of public sector interventions government funding or central bank liquidity insurance schemes public capital injections and nationalizations we use bank level data spanning all british and foreign banks operating within the united kingdom we use multinomial logit regression techniques and find that a bank s size relative to the size of the entire banking system typically has a large positive and non linear effect on the probability of public sector intervention for a bank we also use instrumental variable techniques to show that british interventions helped there is fragile evidence that the wholesale non core funding of an affected institution increased significantly following capital injection or nationalization

what explains the speed of recovery from banking crises abstract while a large body of research has explored the causes and effects of banking crises less is known about what determines recovery from banking crises despite large variations in post crisis performances across countries in order to identify local and global factors that determine the length of recovery i e the time it takes until countries reach their pre crisis level of per capita gdp this exploratory paper employs event history analysis on 138 incidents of banking crises between 1970 and 2012 regarding domestic factors the simultaneous occurrence of currency crises large financial sectors overvalued currencies and large primary deficits are associated with later recovery whereas higher debt to gdp ratios or inflation levels do not exhibit a negative effect on post crisis performances regarding external factors a low growth of world trade as well as indicators of uncertainty in financial markets are correlated with later recovery global interest rate shocks are particularly harmful for the speed of recovery among middle income countries with a strong reliance on external capital the results are similar when using the length of recessions as an alternative indicator of post crisis performances

which is a better investment choice in the hong kong residential property market a big or small property the relationship between property size and property investment yield is an interesting issue in the real estate market previous studies usually use the mean variance criterion to compare the return risk profiles of the yields of different property sizes in the united states however this criterion has a few shortcomings this article provides the first attempt to use a stochastic dominance approach to analyse this issue we adopt two powerful stochastic dominance tests to compare the yields of five property size classes in the hong kong residential property market in our study we analyse two possible investment outcomes 1 investors could not rent out their properties and thus they would gain lose from the appreciation depreciation of residential property prices 2 investors could also gain from rental incomes our empirical results provide strong evidence to show that the yields of smaller property classes stochastically dominate the yields of bigger property classes suggesting that buying smal

distributional effects of crises the financial channel financial crises affect income distribution via different channels we argue that financial transfers is an important channel which has been overlooked by the literature by analyzing data from the mexican 1994 1995 and argentine 2001 2002 crises we investigate two types of financial transfers first we study transfers to the financial sector going from non participants to participants of the financial sector second we explore transfers within the financial sector which are transfers among participants of the financial sector as those from small to large and foreign depositors our analysis suggests that financial transfers increase income inequality

a hierarchical model of the determinants of non performing assets in banks an ism and micmac approach the banking systems of emerging economies in general and india in particular are facing sustained impairment due to mounting non performing assets npas in the absence of stringent policies and t

the politics of related lending we analyze the protability of government owned banks lending to their owners we nd evidence that such lending has been used to transfer bank prots to the governments but only in localities where the incumbent politicians face signicant competition for reelection in localities where the incumbent party has a high probability of reelection there is no such evidence this result establishes a causal link behind extant evidence that banks lending to controlling parties owners and directors can result in looting of the banks we nd evidence that such looting occurs when controlling parties are at risk of losing control

a reappraisal of state owned banks we revisit the public banks debate survey the theoretical arguments and test the robustness and expand the existing empirical evidence while we find some support for the view that public banks do not allocate credit optimally we also report indicative evidence that they exert a positive influence on private bank efficiency and may contribute to reduce credit procyclicality ultimately we find that the recent criticism to public banks has generally been based on inconclusive cross country evidence more specific bank level research is still needed to substantiate a case for or against public banks in developing economies

bank privatization and performance empirical evidence from nigeria the authors assess the effect of privatization on performance in a panel of nigerian banks for the period 1990 2001 they find evidence of performance improvement in nine banks that were privatized which is remarkable given the inhospitable environment for true financial intermediation their results also suggest negative effects of the continuing minority government ownership on the performance of many nigerian banks the authors results complement aggregate indications of decreasing financial intermediation over the 1990s banks that focused on investment in government bonds and non lending activities enjoyed a relatively higher performance

privatization matters bank efficiency in transition countries abstract to investigate the impact of bank privatization in transition countries we take the largest banks in six relatively advanced countries namely bulgaria the czech republic croatia hungary poland and romania income and balance sheet characteristics and efficiency measures computed from stochastic frontiers are compared across four bank ownership types our empirical results support the hypotheses that foreign owned banks are most efficient and government owned banks are least efficient in addition the importance of attracting a strategic foreign owner in the privatization process is confirmed however counter to the conjecture that foreign banks cherry pick the most profitable opportunities we find that domestic banks have a local advantage in pursuing fee for service business finally we show that both the method and the timing of privatization matter to performance specifically voucher privatization does not lead to increased efficiency and early privatized banks are more efficient than later privatized banks even though we find no evidence of a selection effect

supply contract with bidirectional options the buyer s perspective abstract this paper develops a single period two stage supply contract with bidirectional options by which the buyer can adjust the initial order both upward and downward at the beginning of the planning horizon the buyer places an initial order and purchases options after updating the demand forecast the buyer exercises options to adjust the initial order we analyze the contract from the buyer s perspective and formulate the buyer s optimal policies in particular we obtain closed form formulae to describe the buyer s optimal behavior when the demand is uniformly distributed we also analyze how the parameters affect the buyer s behavior and prove numerically that using bidirectional options can improve the buyer s profit

information distortion in a supply chain the bullwhip effect this article originally appeared in management science april 1997 volume 43 number 4 pp 546 558 published by the institute of management sciences consider a series of companies in a supply chain each of whom orders from its immediate upstream member in this setting inbound orders from a downstream member serve as a valuable informational input to upstream production and inventory decisions this paper claims that the information transferred in the form of orders tends to be distorted and can misguide upstream members in their inventory and production decisions in particular the variance of orders may be larger than that of sales and distortion tends to increase as one moves upstream a phenomenon termed bullwhip effect this paper analyzes four sources of the bullwhip effect demand signal processing rationing game order batching and price variations actions that can be taken to mitigate the detrimental impact of this distortion are also discussed

foreign entry and the mexican banking system 1997 2007 proquest denotes formulae omitted in recent years governments around the world have been opening up their banking systems to foreign competition with the expectation of making them more efficient stable and resilient to shocks academics and policymakers have therefore been exploring the effects of foreign bank entry from both a theoretical and an empirical point of view most studies conclude that foreign entry increases the contestability of markets thereby reducing administrative costs lowering net interest margins nims and driving down bank rates of return nevertheless as clarke and others note much of what we know comes from cross country studies that are heavily weighted toward developed economies 1 this is particularly crucial because the impact of foreign entry may vary with the level of economic development 2the literature to date on foreign bank entry in developing economies does not provide a consensus set of results there is some evidence that foreign entry increases social welfare clarke cull and martinez peria find that enterprises in countries with high levels of foreign bank participation tend to rank interest rates and access to long term loans as lesser constraints on their operations and growth than do enterprises in countries with low levels of foreign bank participation 3 martinez peria and mody analyzing a group of latin american cases in a pooled time series cross sectional framework find that foreign banks charge lower interest rate spreads than domestically owned banks 4 they also find that foreign bank entry is associated with an overall increase in administrative efficiency and a decrease in interest spreads suggesting that foreign entry spurred competition denizer obtains similar results in a study of turkey foreign entry reduced domestic bank overhead expenses as well as bank profitability 5 unite and sullivan find that foreign entry was associated with declines in interest rate spreads overhead expenses and profits in the philippines but the effect was confined to domestic banks that had been tied to business groups 6 kasekende and sebudde report that foreign banks in uganda have better internal control mechanisms than domestic banks in terms of judging the quality of borrowers 7not all the evidence points in the same direction however havrylchyk finds that foreign banks in poland are more efficient than domestic banks but then shows that the efficiency gains are all located in so called greenfield banks domestic banks that are acquired by foreign banks do not become more efficient 8 cardim de carvalho finds no differences between foreign and domestic banks in brazil in terms of credit allocation or technical efficiency 9 indeed technical progress in online banking and automation in brazil has been introduced more aggressively by domestically owned banks claessens demirguc kunt and huizinga find that foreign banks operating in developing economies have higher overhead expenses charge higher interest margins and earn higher rates of return than domestic banks 10foreign banks may also be less willing to extend credit on the basis of softknowledge about firms than domestically owned banks studies of argentina and pakistan suggest that foreign entry may therefore give larger firms even greater advantages by exacerbating problems of differential access to capital 11 the finding that foreign banks eschew soft knowledge lending is supported by multicountry studies that use panel data techniques detragiache tressel and gupta report that foreign entry in a panel of poor economies is associated with a net reduction in total lending to the private sector foreign banks appear to have skimmed offthe best credit risks leaving domestic banks with a pool of weaker borrowers from which to select 12 a related body of research suggests that foreign banks represent a trade offfor a developing country galindo micco and powell develop a model and present evidence indicating that foreign banks may be less susceptible to funding shocks than domestic banks because they can tap capital from their home institutions but at the same time foreign banks are more reactive to shocks that affect expected returns

monitoring banking sector fragility a multivariate logit approach this article explores how a multivariate logit model of the probability of a banking crisis can be used to monitor banking sector fragility the proposed approach relies on readily available data and the fragility assessment has a clear interpretation based on in sample statistics the model has better in sample performance than currently available alternatives and the monitoring system can be tailored to fit the preferences of decision makers regarding type i and type ii errors the framework can be useful as a preliminary screen to economize on precautionary costs

endogenous default risk in supply chain and non linear pricing abstract based on incomplete contract theories we studied the strategic behaviors of up stream and down stream manufacturers by option game model and obtain some conclusions first the down stream s pay off function is a concave function of its investment in fixed assets so there is an optimal investment which ensures the down stream s maximal pay off and prevents it from being holdup second in presence of endogenous default risks the up stream can improve its pay off level through non linear pricing last increasing business risks of the down stream may lead to an increased price fluctuation of the up stream while the down stream s technological advancement can make such fluctuation less

nonlinear pricing in vertically related duopolies a vertically separated duopolistic market is analyzed in which manufacturers compete in wholesale price schedules and retailers in quantity under certainty there exists a continuum of equilibria the introduction of an uncertain demand parameter observed only by retailers dramatically reduces the set of equilibria quantity discounts emerge in markets with only moderately decreasing returns to scale in manufacturing and quantity competition downstream with additive shocks to demand the equilibria coincide with those of markets in which vertically integrated firms compete in supply functions before market uncertainty is resolved however generically equilibria in my model are not supply function equilibria

costs of banking system instability some empirical evidence abstract this paper assesses the cross country stylised facts on empirical measures of the losses incurred during periods of banking crises we first consider the direct resolution costs to the government and then the broader costs to the welfare of the economy proxied by losses in gdp we find that the cumulative output losses incurred during crisis periods are large roughly 15 20 on average of annual gdp in contrast to previous research we also find that output losses incurred during crises in developed countries are as high or higher on average than those in emerging market economies moreover output losses during crisis periods in developed countries also appear to be significantly larger 10 15 than in neighbouring countries that did not at the time experience severe banking problems in emerging market economies by contrast banking crises appear to be costly only when accompanied by a currency crisis these results seem robust to allowing for macroeconomic conditions at the outset of crisis in particular low and declining output growth that have also contributed to future output losses during crises episodes

why are interest spreads so high in uganda using international comparisons and a unique bank level dataset on the ugandan banking system over the period 1999 to 2005 we explore the factors behind consistently high interest rate spreads and margins international comparisons show that the small size of ugandan banks persistently high t bill rates and institutional deficiencies explain large proportions of the high ugandan interest rate margins the ugandan bank panel confirms the importance of macroeconomic factors such as high inflation high t bill rates and exchange rate appreciation there is also evidence for the small market place and high costs of doing business explaining persistently high spreads and margins smaller banks and banks targeting the low end of the market incur higher costs and therefore higher margins spreads and margins also vary significantly with the sectoral loan portfolio composition of banks while there is little evidence for foreign bank entry privatization or changes in market structure explaining variation in spreads or margins over time

do lenders favor politically connected firms rent provision in an emerging financial market corruption by the politically connected is often blamed for economic ills particularly in less developed economies using a loan level data set of more than 90 000 rms that represents the universe of corporate lending in pakistan between 1996 and 2002 we investigate rents to politically connected rms in banking classifying a rm as political if its director participates in an election we examine the extent nature and economic costs of political rent provision we nd that political rms borrow 45 percent more and have 50 percent higher default rates such preferential treatment occurs exclusively in government banks private banks provide no

how costly are debt crises the aim of this paper is to assess the short and medium term impact of debt crises on gdp using an unbalanced panel of 154 countries from 1970 to 2008 the paper shows that debt crises produce significant and long lasting output losses reducing output by about 10 percent after 8 years the results also suggest that debt crises tend to be more detrimental than banking and currency crises the significance of the results is robust to different specifications identification and endogeneity checks and datasets

foreign banks trends and impact over the past two decades foreign banks have become much more important in domestic financial intermediation heightening the need to understand their behavior we introduce a new comprehensive database made publicly available on bank ownership including the home country of foreign banks for 5 324 banks in 137 countries over the period 1995 2009 we document large increases in foreign bank presence in many countries but with substantial heterogeneity in terms of host and banks home countries bilateral investment patterns and bank characteristics in terms of impact we document that the relation between private credit and foreign bank presence importantly depends on host country and banks characteristics specifically foreign banks only seem to have a negative impact on credit in low income countries in countries where they have a limited market share where enforcing contracts is costly and where credit information is limited available and when they come from distant home countries this shows that accounting for heterogeneity including bilateral ownership is crucial to better understand the implications of foreign bank ownership

the theory of rational bubbles in stock prices free disposal of equity which directly rules out the existence of negative rational bubbles in stock pric es also imposes theoretical restrictions on the possible existence o f positive rational bubbles the analysis in this paper shows that a positive rational bubble can start only on the first date of trading of a stock thus the existence of a rational bubble at any date woul d imply that the stock has been overvalued relative to market fundame ntals since the first date of trading and that prior to the first da te of trading the issuer of the stock and potential stockholders who anticipated the initial pricing of the stock expected that the stock would be overvalued copyright 1988 by royal economic society

political influence and declarations of bank insolvency in japan this paper investigates how politics affects bank supervision by examining determinants of bank failures in japan during 1999 2002 a period during which bank regulators were called upon to resolve insolvent banks in preparation for the lifting of a blanket deposit guarantee the empirical results suggest that japan s bank regulators had tendency to delay declarations of insolvency in prefectures that supported senior politicians of the ruling liberal democratic party ldp this result which is robust to a host of bank level and prefecture level controls suggests that bank supervision is prone to political influence that delays efficient resolution of insolvency

the determinants of net interest income in the mexican banking system an integrated model abstract this paper analyzes net interest income in the mexican banking system over the period 1993 2005 taking as reference the seminal work by ho and saunders ho t saunders a 1981 the determinants of banks interest margins theory and empirical evidence journal of financial and quantitative analysis xvi 4 581 600 and subsequent extensions by other authors our study models the net interest margin simultaneously including operating costs and diversification and specialization as determinants of the margin the results referring to the mexican case show that its high margins can be explained mainly by average operating costs and by market power although non interest income has increased in recent years its economic impact is low

market volatility and investor behavior it appears that speculative asset prices tend to show excess volatility relative to simple present value efficient markets models and that prices are partly forecastable as tending to returning to mean appropriately defined but what does this tell us about how speculative prices are determined are there fads in prices and if so how do they behave the question has arisen recently whether there is really room for fads in speculative prices whether or not speculative prices are too volatile if stock prices are highly correlated with dividends we might conclude that the movements in stock prices are driven by fundamentals not fads a question of longer standing is whether fads models that entail feedback from price change to price change are consistent with the observed approximate random walk price behavior that is rather low serial correlation of short run price changes we can also ask whether the feedback models are consistent with the observed relation of stock prices to dividends and earnings

the fiscal cost implications of an accommodating approach to banking crises abstract in recent decades a majority of countries have experienced a systemic banking crisis requiring a major and expensive overhaul of their banking system budgetary outlays whether immediate or deferred have exceeded 50 of gdp in some cases this paper uses cross country econometric evidence to examine whether the design of crisis containment and resolution policies can systematically influence the overall magnitude of fiscal costs we find that accommodating policies such as blanket deposit guarantees open ended liquidity support repeated partial recapitalizations debtor bail outs and regulatory forbearance all tend to add significantly and sizably to fiscal costs

the european sovereign debt crisis the origin and propagation of the european sovereign debt crisis can be attributed to the flawed original design of the euro in particular there was an incomplete understanding of the fragility of a monetary union under crisis conditions especially in the absence of banking union and other european level buffer mechanisms moreover the inherent messiness involved in proposing and implementing incremental multicountry crisis management responses on the fly has been an important destabilizing factor throughout the crisis after diagnosing the situation we consider reforms that might improve the resilience of the euro area to future fiscal shocks

restoring banking stability beyond supervised capital requirements emerging economies have been particularly prone to financial sector crises reflecting marked information asymmetries and political interference as well as the substantial volatility in underlying economic conditions and the vulnerability of banking and finance when structural economic changes create a new and uncharted operating environment the standard regulatory paradigm relies mainly on supervised capital adequacy but it may not be enough other measures to improve the incentive structure for bankers regulators and other market participants could effectively increase the number of concerned skilled and watchful eyes intermittent application of supplementary blunt instruments could also be useful

the role of the state in financial markets this paper reexamines the role of the state in financial markets and identifies seven major market failures that provide a potential rationale for government intervention in practice government interventions in capital markets even in industrial countries have been pervasive the paper provides a taxonomy of those interventions with respect to both the objectives they serve and the instruments they employ there is a role for the government in financial markets but the success of government interventions has been mixed it is important that interventions be well designed the paper sets out principles for government regulatory interventions and applies them to prudential regulation it then examines three other areas of intervention directed credit finanical repression and competition policy and identifies circumstances in which some amount of financial repression may actually be beneficial

the effect of bank ownership and deposit insurance on monetary policy transmission abstract in this paper we develop a theoretical model with a representative bank whose ownership is shared between state and private sector the bank faces a risk of failure and provides private and public explicit deposit insurance banks owned to a larger extent by the government are more able to counteract a restrictive monetary policy because of their capacity to raise additional volume of deposits therefore the greater the state s share in the bank ownership the less the impact of a monetary tightening on the level of loan supply

privatization as an agency problem auctions versus private negotiations abstract this paper investigates the design of privatization mechanisms in emerging market economies characterized by political constraints that limit the set of viable privatization options our objective is to explain the striking diversity of mechanisms observed in practice and the frequent use of an apparently sub optimal privatization mechanism private negotiations we develop a simple model in which privatization is to be carried out by a government agent who plays favorites among bidders but is potentially disciplined by losing his private benefits of staying in office if the political environment is such that the privatization agent himself aims at raising the fair value for the company then privatization auctions and private negotiations are equally successful in raising public revenues if however political considerations distort the agent s incentives it may be that a seemingly transparent auction will raise less revenue than opaque private negotiations we also show that information disclosure laws may have negative welfare implications they may help the privatization agent to collude with some of the bidders to the disadvantage of non colluding bidders

the effect of bank bail outs in the eu abstract the financial crisis renewed the debate on the bail out of financial institutions questioning the effectiveness of such an intervention in restoring normal economic conditions this paper analyzes the effect on the real economy of state financial support to distressed banks using a panel approach that covers all countries in the eu throughout the financial crisis results show that state financial support was able to enhance economic conditions by restoring trust in financial markets state support boosted the ongoing substitution between securities and bank lending as the main financing channel of non financial firms

political booms financial crises political booms measured by the rise in governments popularity predict financial crises above and beyond better known early warning indicators such as credit booms this predictive power howev

the impact of the strategic sale of restructured banks evidence from indonesia summary we examine the effect of strategic sale which is the sale of banks to strategic foreign investors on bank performance the government of indonesia implemented such a policy as part of a bank restructuring in the aftermath of the 1998 banking crisis using difference in differences models we find that strategic sale leads to a 12 15 cost reduction these results are robust to the use of other estimators such as difference in differences matching estimators and stochastic frontier analysis to that of other performance measures such as return on assets and net interest margin and to that of different sample types these results suggest that strategic sale could play an important role in restructuring troubled banks in developing countries

option and forward contracting with asymmetric information valuation issues in supply chains we investigate the role of forward commitments and option contracts between a seller supplier and a buyer retailer in the presence of asymmetric information in our case both parties face price and demand uncertainty but the retailer being closer to the market has additional information about the true demand and price the supplier aware of this asymmetry and acting as a stackelberg leader designs a contracting arrangement that best meet his interest we contrast the role of forward and option contracts in this environment and identify cases where combinations of the two are dominant finally we investigate how alternative contracting arrangements alter the expected value of obtaining information that eliminates asymmetric information

foreign bank behavior during financial crises one of the persistent policy problems faced by governments contemplating financial liberalizations is the question of whether to allow foreign banks entry into the domestic economy this question has become ever more urgent in recent times due to rapid financial globalization coupled with the credit contractions experienced as a result of the 2007 08 financial crisis this paper examines the question of whether opening the financial sector to foreign participation is a good idea for developing countries using a unique bank level database of foreign ownership in particular the authors examine whether the credit supply of majority foreign owned financial institutions differ systematically conditional on a crisis event in their home economies they show that foreign banks that were exposed to crises in their home countries exhibit changes in lending patterns that are lower by between 13 and 42 percent than their non crisis counterparts

privatization and bank performance in developing countries abstract we examine the postprivatization performance of 81 banks from 22 developing countries our results suggest that i on average banks chosen for privatization have a lower economic efficiency and a lower solvency than banks kept under government ownership ii in the postprivatization period profitability increases but depending on the type of owner efficiency risk exposure and capitalization may worsen or improve however iii over time privatization yields significant improvements in economic efficiency and credit risk exposure iv we also find that newly privatized banks that are controlled by local industrial groups become more exposed to credit risk and interest rate risk after privatization

politicians and banks political influences on government owned banks in emerging markets abstract government ownership of banks is very common in countries other than the united states this paper provides cross country bank level empirical evidence about political influences on these banks it shows that government owned banks increase their lending in election years relative to private banks this effect is robust to controlling for country specific macroeconomic and institutional factors as well as bank specific factors the increase in lending is about 11 of a government owned bank s total loan portfolio or about 0 5 of the median country s gdp per election per government owned bank

fiscal cyclicality and emu abstract for the set of emu member countries we examine cyclical patterns in fiscal outcomes we find that there is significant time variation in fiscal cyclicality with an improvement in the wake of the maastricht treaty but a deterioration after the creation of emu furthermore we show that the fiscal cycle is affected by the financial cycle in addition to the output cycle the lessons for the current reforms of european economic and fiscal governance are manifest

does deposit insurance improve financial intermediation evidence from the russian experiment this study examines how the introduction of deposit insurance affects depositors and banks using the deposit insurance scheme introduced into the russian banking system as a natural experiment the fundamental research question is whether the introduction of deposit insurance leads to a more effective banking system as evidenced by increased deposit taking and decreased reliance upon state owned banks as custodians of retail deposits we find that banks entering the new deposit insurance system increase both their level of retail deposits and their ratios of retail deposits to total assets relative to banks that do not enter the new deposit insurance system these results hold up in a multivariate panel data analysis that controls for bank and time random effects the longer a bank has been entered into the deposit insurance system the greater is its level of deposits and its ratio of deposits to assets moreover this effect is stronger for regional banks and for smaller banks we also find that implementation of the new deposit insurance system has the effect of leveling the playing field between state owned banks and privately owned banks finally we find strong evidence of moral hazard following implementation of deposit insurance in the form of increased bank risk taking financial risk and to a lesser degree operating risk increase following implementation

financial cycles and fiscal multipliers abstractwe show that fiscal multiplier estimations may be biased by movements in asset and credit markets as they facilitate spurious correlations of changes in cyclically adjusted revenues and spending with output growth via an identification bias and an omitted variable bias thus overstating episodes of expansionary consolidations and downplaying contractionary consolidations when controlling for asset and credit market movements in otherwise standard approaches to identification we find multipliers to increase on average by 0 3 1 units fiscal consolidations are thus more likely to be contractionary and more harmful to growth than expected by some strands of the existing literature