which reforms work and under what institutional environment evidence from a new data set on structural reforms abstract are structural reforms growth enhancing is the effectiveness of reforms constrained by a country s distance from the technology frontier or by its institutional environment this paper takes a new and comprehensive look at these questions by employing a novel data set that includes several kinds of real trade agriculture and networks and financial domestic finance banking securities and capital account reforms for an extensive list of developed and developing countries going back to the early 1970s first pass evidence based on growth breaks analysis and on panel growth regressions suggests that on average both real and financial sector reforms are positively associated with higher growth however on several occasions botched reforms resulted in growth disasters more important the positive reform growth relationship is shown to be highly heterogeneous and to be influenced by a country s constraints on the authority of the executive power and by its distance from the technology fro

occupational choice and the process of development this paper models economic development as a process of institutional transformation by focusing on the interplay between agents occupational decisions and the distribution of wealth because of capital market imperfections poor agents choose working for a wage over self employment and wealthy agents become entrepreneurs who monitor workers only with sufficient inequality however will there be employment contracts otherwise there is either subsistence or self employment thus in static equilibrium the occupational structure depends on distribution since the latter is itself endogenous we demonstrate the robustness of this result by extending the model dynamically and studying examples in which initial wealth distributions have long run effects in one case the economy develops either widespread cottage industry self employment or factory production employment contracts depending on the initial distribution in the other example it develops into prosperity or stagnation

interorganizational determinants of promotion client leadership and the attainment of women attorneys explanations of gender inequality typically emphasize individual characteristics the structure of internal labor markets or pressures from the institutional environment extending the structuralist and institutional perspectives this article argues that the demographic composition of an organization s exchange partners can influence the demographic composition of the focal organization when the focal organization is dependent upon its partners specifically law firms with women led corporate clients increase the number of partners who are women attorneys data on elite law firms and their publicly traded clients support a bargaining power hypothesis whereby law firms promote women attorneys when their corporate clients have women in three key leadership positions general legal counsel chief executive officer and board director these effects are stronger when the law firm has few clients reinforcing the hypothesis that interorganizational influence is more vital when a focal organization is depe

equity and efficiency in public sector pricing a case for stochastic rationing a view still widely held among economists is that given the objective of maximizing a paretian social welfare function rationing of private goods is inferior to transfers and subsidies hence existing rationing e g in housing programs involving rent regulation subsidized medical treatment to needy individuals distribution of day care for children according to need etc is often interpreted as a reflection of paternalistic objectives on the part of the government or simply as bad policy see tobin 1970 the purpose of this paper is to challenge the general validity of this conventional wisdom in the context of a traditional model of public sector pricing supplemented by an anonymous rationing scheme which affects individuals consumption patterns significantly as is often the case a government cannot achieve distributional equity i e situations where the social value of marginal utility of income is equal for all individuals by means of taxes and transfers because the use of these instruments is subject to various constraints this is a common feature of many taxation models cf atkinson and stiglitz 1980 from a purely technical point of view there is scope for improving on social welfare in such situations by means of other measures such as rationing but since the use of rationing as well as taxes and transfers is likely to be restricted by the same underlying factors e g information about consumers preferences and endowments or administrative costs it may be questioned whether rationing qualifies as an efficient policy instrument the type of rationing considered in this paper is stochastic rationing when prices are set at levels which generate excess demand some of the potential consumers are randomly barred from the markets entirely so that demand equals supply from the point of view of implementation such a rationing scheme has the desirable property of not requiring the government to have information about preferences and endowments at the individual consumer level nor is extensive administration required another interesting aspect of such a scheme is that in a sense it represents a lower bound on rationing schemes since in most cases actual rationing can be based on some information about consumers therefore if there are cases where a market clearing equilibrium can be improved upon by reducing prices below market clearing levels combined with elimination of excess demand by means of stochastic rationing the argument for rationing as a potentially efficient policy tool is in fact fairly strong in this paper we show that such cases do exist we also indicate that stochastic rationing may still be efficient even in situations where prices can be highly differentiated among different groups of individuals e g income groups we conclude that the absence of costless redistribution of income which indeed seems to be consistent with real world situations is crucial for the results two kinds of policy changes are considered the first involves eliminating a marginal excess demand by means of rationing in the model in this paper there is a continuum of consumers therefore while such a marginal rationing affects some consumers in a nonmarginal fashion it only affects an infinitesimal group of consumers hence it only

borrowing constraints human capital accumulation and growth abstract borrowing constraints increase aggregate savings and therefore may increase growth this paper argues however that by reducing human capital accumulation borrowing constraints also have negative effects on growth these effects are discussed in an overlapping generations model with endogenous growth empirical evidence for oecd and developing countries lend support to the main predictions of the model

agriculture diffusion and development ripple effects of the neolithic revolution are the effects of the neolithic revolution still impacting on incomes across the world today i find strong support for this proposition using new country specific estimates of the timing of the agricultural transition and provide evidence that the differences are due to how technological diffusion is accounted for a correction for world migrations since 1500 significantly improves the fit transition year also helps to explain income in 1500 itself and an alternative measure of pre modern development state history has similar ability to predict income in 1500 and 1997

aid policies and growth a nonlinear reassessment the association between foreign aid and growth has been controversial for decades and the evidence is quite mixed with results sensitive to data samples and modelling approaches we reassess the re

what makes growth sustained abstract we identify structural breaks in economic growth in 140 countries and use these to define growth spells periods of high growth preceded by an upbreak and ending either with a downbreak or with the end of the sample growth spells tend to be shorter in african and latin american countries than elsewhere we find evidence that growth duration is positively related to the degree of equality of the income distribution democratic institutions export orientation with higher propensities to export manufactures greater openness to fdi and avoidance of exchange rate overvaluation favorable for duration and macroeconomic stability

diffusion and the international context of democratization democracy does not evolve sui generis the spatial clustering in democ racy and transitions suggests that international factors play a prominent role in forg ing democracies as well as influencing their durability we argue that democracy often comes about as a result of changes in the relative power of important actors and groups as well as their evaluations of particular institutions both of which are often influenced by forces outside the country in question the scope and extent of con nections with other democratic countries in a region can strengthen support for dem ocratic reform and help sustain institutions in transitional democracies results from a transition model demonstrate that international factors can exert a strong influence on the prospects for transitions to democracy and the spatial clustering in democ racy and transitions cannot adequately be explained by the hypothesized domestic social requisites of individual countries

top managerial prestige and organizational bankruptcy this paper extends earlier work on an alternative view of bankruptcy suggesting that bankruptcy occurs when creditors withdraw then support from a firm s top management team it further proposes that support for the top team depends upon the team s prestige five characteristics measuring the relative status of top teams were tested for their association with bankruptcy three of the characteristics focused on items commonly associated with membership in economic elites elite educational backgrounds board memberships and previous employment as officers in other corporations the fourth and fifth characteristics focused on membership in political and military elites the results indicated that political and board connections were negatively associated with bankruptcy in the year of failure even when financial factors and cooptive board linkages were controlled the results also showed that failing firms attempted to improve their managerial prestige three to four years before they failed they were how

peeling away the layers impacts of durable tariff elimination abstract we demonstrate that durable mfn tariff elimination affects trade patterns through several layers and magnitudes of effects are sizable the wto information technology agreement s ita unique setting allows us to overcome the challenges associated with identifying effects of non discriminatory trade policies due to two reasons i ita constitutes a quasi natural experiment of several passive signatories joining the agreement as an unavoidable part of pursuing a larger policy objective and ii ita s partial coverage of the it sector provides a natural control group for identification based on cross product variation our analysis finds novel nonlinear impacts of tariff liberalization complete tariff elimination results in large additional trade gains over and above tariff reductions especially for intermediate goods the commitment to durable tariff elimination through wto bindings adds another two layers boosting both imports and exports more than equivalent unilateral reforms this commitment spurned development of a downstream it export sector in passive signatories

theories of policy diffusion lessons from latin american pension reform what accounts for the waves of policy diffusion that increasingly sweep across regions of the world why do many diverse countries adopt similar changes focusing on the spread of chilean style pension privatization in latin america this article assesses the relative merit of four theoretical explanations that scholars of diffusion have proposed as the principal mechanism driving innovations spread these approaches emphasize external pressures emanating especially from international financial institutions the quest for symbolic or normative legitimacy rational learning and cost benefit calculation and cognitive heuristics respectively the article assesses which one of these frameworks can best account for the three distinctive features of diffusion namely its wavelike temporal pattern its geographical clustering and the spread of similarity amid diversity while several approaches contribute to understanding policy diffusion the analysis suggests that the cognitive psychological framework offers a particularly persuasive account of the spread of pension reform

tax policy in an era of internationalization explaining the spread of neoliberalism i offer an explanation for the widespread diffusion of neoliberal tax policies in the developed democracies after accounting for the policy influences of commonly experienced domestic and international forces i consider several plausible paths of diffusion of neoliberal tax structure my central argument is that the highly visible 1980s market conforming tax reform in the united states should be especially important in shaping subsequent tax policies in other polities there are substantial reasons to believe however that domestic political and institutional forces will shape policymaker assessment of the benefits and costs of neoliberal reforms the strength of right parties and the degree to which the median voter has moved right should condition adoption of neoliberal tax policy the institutions of national and sector coordinated capitalism should also slow the enactment of neoliberal tax reforms i assess these arguments with empirical models of 1981 98 tax rates on capital in sixteen nations i find that changes in u s tax policy influence subsequent reforms in other polities in the long term all nations move toward the u s neoliberal tax structure analysis also shows however that the short term responsiveness to u s tax reforms is notably greater where uncoordinated market institutions are dominant theory and extensive qualitative and quantitative evidence indicate that pressures to compete for mobile assets as balanced against the economic and political costs of adoption anchor the process of diffusion of neoliberal tax policy there is little evidence for the view that systematic policy learning or social emulation drove tax policy diffusion earlier versions of this article were presented at the center for european studies and weatherhead center for international affairs harvard university center for international studies ucla and yale university as well as the 2002 annual meetings of the american political science association an earlier version was published as minda de gunzburg center for european studies harvard university working paper 120 i thank alex hicks rob franzese torben iversen andy martin cathie jo martin participants in the yale ucla and harvard conferences especially geoffrey garrett helen milner dennis quinn and beth simmons and two anonymous referees and the editors of international organization for helpful comments i also gratefully acknowledge the contribution of sven steinmo that comes by way of our past collaborative work on tax policy

the political economy of the euro crisis this article introduces the special issue on the political economy of the euro crisis which aims to improve our understanding of the causes consequences and implications of the highly unusual nature of this crisis a financial crisis among developed countries within a supranational monetary union the article provides a brief chronology of the crisis discusses its underlying causes and reviews the ways in which comparative and international political economy can help us understand the crisis the article then discusses the individual and collective contributions of the articles in the special issue and discusses possible future research paths on the political economy of the euro crisis we conclude with a brief discussion of how a political economy perspective informs our understanding of the long term prospects for the eurozone and european integration

the eclipse of the state reflections on stateness in an era of globalization the economic logic of the current international economy does not predict the eclipse of the state economic globalization does restrict state power but transnational capital needs capable states as much or more than does domestically oriented business national success in the current global political economy has been associated not with minimal states but with states that are capable active and engaged pressure for eclipse flows from the conjunction between transnational economic forces and the political hegemony of an anglo american ideology that in j p nettl s words simply leaves no room for any valid notion of the state even this combination of economic and political pressure is unlikely to eclipse the state but it is likely to put public institutions on the defensive eclipsing any possibility of the embedded liberalism described by john ruggie a leaner meaner state is the likely outcome the possibility of a more progressive alternative outcome would depend in part on whether current zero sum visions of the relation between the state and civil society can be replaced by a more synergistic view

organizational failure and intraprofessional status loss we examine variation in intraprofessional status changes for employees displaced by organizational failure we propose that failure related reductions in bargaining power are moderated by individual status characteristics that influence potential employers evaluations of job candidates and therefore individuals status loss risks treating a prominent law firm s failure as a quasi experiment we test our arguments by analyzing 224 firm partners transitions to subsequent employers most partners regained employment at firms of lower status than the failed firm but independent of their demonstrated productivity a partner s likelihood of status loss increased with tenure in the failed firm s partnership and decreased with educational prestige these results suggest not only that organizational failure can diminish cumulative career advantages but also that status characteristics that enable attainment such as education can protect individuals against status loss

cumulative advantage and inequality in science the hypothesis of cumulative advantage is widely accepted in the sociology of science but empirical tests have been few and equivocal one approach originated by allison and stewart 1974 is to see whether inequality of productivity and recognition increases as a cohort of scientists ages this paper extends their work by examining true cohorts of biochemists and chemists rather than synthetic cohorts increasing inequality is observed for counts of publications but not for counts of citations to all previous publications it is also shown that a mathematical model of cumulative advantage does not imply increasing inequality when the model is modified to allow for heterogeneity in the rate of cumulative advantage however increasing inequality is implied

the finance and growth nexus revisited we find that an expansion of credit has a positive effect on per capita output growth only up to a point beyond this threshold the impact of finance on growth is not statistically significant anymore we show however that the estimated non linear relationship may stem from the omission of factors not considered in the literature so far these factors may have a negative impact on growth in mature financial systems and include the magnitude of financial cycles as well as the importance of non intermediation activities in banks business models

dualism and macroeconomic volatility this paper develops a simple macroeconomic model that shows that combining capital market imperfections together with unequal access to investment opportunities across individuals can generate endogenous and permanent euctuations in aggregate gdp investment and interest rates reducing inequality of access may be a necessary condition for macroeconomic stabilization moreover countercyclical escal policies have a role to play in our model savings are underutilized in slumps because of the limited debt capacity of potential investors therefore the government should issue public debt during recessions in order to absorb those idle savings and enance investment subsidies or tax cuts for investors the most important single fact about saving and investment activities is that in our industrial society they are generally done by different people and for different reasons for years there might tend to be too little investment leading to deeation losses excess capacity and unemployment for other years there might tend to be too much investment leading to periods of chronic ineation unless prudent and proper public policies in the escal and monetary eelds are followed paul a samuelson economics 8th edition 1970 pp 196 198

financial crises output losses and the role of structural reforms financial crises take a heavy toll on output growth we assess the role of structural reforms in reducing the output losses resulting from financial crises across advanced economies emerging and developing economies and low income developing economies we also revisit the role of macroeconomic policies in this context the impact of crises on output growth differs between types of crises and economies thus warranting sample splits along these lines some but not all reforms and policies help to reduce the output losses of crises in the medium term highlighting the need not to overgeneralize the effectiveness of reforms and policies further research is warranted to further explore the heterogeneity in the impact of financial crises on output growth and to better understand when and how specific structural reforms and macroeconomic policies can mitigate the output costs of financial crises jel e32 e44 e63 g28 o47

the rebirth of the liberal creed paths to neoliberalism in four countries1 since the 1970s market based economic policies have been institutionalized as a nearly global policy paradigm using four national case studies this article shows that economic and financial globalization played a critical role in fostering the transition to neoliberal policies but that local institutional conditions were decisive in shaping the nature and meaning of the shift while the analysis finds that developing countries appear more dependent upon direct external pressures than developed ones it also shows that institutionalized patterns of state society relations determined the way in which neoliberal transitions were carried out somewhat irrespectively of the level of economic development in chile and britain poorly mediated distributional conflict created the ideological conditions for a monetarist revolution in mexico and france on the other hand neoliberalism was understood mainly as a necessary step to adapt the country to the international economy

the effect of imf programs on economic growth abstract using a bivariate dynamic version of the heckman selection model we estimate the effect of participation in international monetary fund imf programs on economic growth we find evidence that governments enter into agreements with the imf under the pressures of a foreign reserves crisis but they also bring in the fund to shield themselves from the political costs of adjustment policies program participation lowers growth rates for as long as countries remain under a program once countries leave the program they grow faster than if they had remained but not faster than they would have without participation

trade based diffusion of labor rights a panel study 1986 2002 this article investigates the nature of the linkages between trade and labor rights in developing countries specifically we hypothesize that a california effect serves to transmit superior labor standards from importing to exporting countries in a manner similar to the transmission of environmental standards we maintain that all else being equal the labor standards of a given country are influenced not by its overall level of trade openness but by the labor standards of its trading partners we evaluate our hypothesis using a panel of 90 developing countries over the period 1986 2002 and we separately examine the extent to which the labor laws and the actual labor practices of the countries are influenced by those of their export destinations we find that strong legal protections of collective labor rights in a country s export destinations are associated with more stringent labor laws in the exporting country this california effect finding is however weaker in the context of labor rights practices highlighting the importance of distinguishing between formal legislation and actual implementation of labor rights

the interactive effects of human capital and quality of life on economic growth abstractto bridge the gap in the quality of life qol and economic growth literature and understand the reinforcing effects of qol and human capital on economic development we examine the interactive effects of these two factors on wage growth from 2000 to 2007 at the county level across the united states first a rosen roback model is employed to estimate implicit values of amenities including climate clean air and other natural attributes which are used to generate qol indices second qol human capital represented by the share of college graduates and their interaction serve as key variables in the wage growth model an instrumental variable approach and location fixed effects are used to address endogeneity of human capital and control for location specific unobservable characteristics results suggest that human capital and qol significantly contribute to economic growth and the growth effects are even larger in nonmetropolitan counties importantly we find that the effect of human capital on

the eclectic paradigm of international production a restatement and some possible extensions this article reviews some of the criticisms directed towards the eclectic paradigm of international production over the past decade and restates its main tenets the second part of the article considers a number of possible extensions of the paradigm and concludes by asserting that it remains a robust general framework for explaining and analysing not only the economic rationale of economic production but many organisational and impact issues in relation to mne activity as well

preferences for international redistribution the divide over the eurozone bailouts why do voters agree to bear the costs of bailing out other countries despite the prominence of public opinion in the ongoing debate over the eurozone bailouts voters preferences on the topic are poorly understood we conduct the first systematic analysis of this issue using observational and experimental survey data from germany the country shouldering the largest share of the eu s financial rescue fund testing a range of theoretical explanations we find that individuals own economic standing has limited explanatory power in accounting for their position on the bailouts in contrast social dispositions such as altruism and cosmopolitanism robustly correlate with support for the bailouts the results indicate that the divide in public opinion over the bailouts does not reflect distributive lines separating domestic winners and losers instead the bailout debate is better understood as a foreign policy issue that pits economic nationalist sentiments versus greater cosmopolitan affinity and other regarding concerns

labor market advantages of organizational status a study of lateral partner hiring by large u s law firms prior research demonstrates product market advantages of organizational status but largely neglects factor market advantages we propose that status is advantageous in labor markets because individuals generally consider employer status a nonpecuniary employment benefit dyadic analyses of lateral partner hiring by large u s law firms demonstrate two status based advantages in employee hiring and retention first high status firms are more likely than low status ones to hire an employee from a more profitable competitor second high status firms are most likely to lose an employee to a lower status competitor when the competitor is atypically more profitable we discuss implications of these findings for individual and organizational status attainment and for the stability of industry status hierarchies

capital account liberalization what do cross country studies tell us capital account liberalization it is fair to say remains one of the most controversial and least understood policies of our day one reason is that different theoretical perspectives have very different implications for the desirability of liberalizing capital flows another is that empirical analysis has failed to yield conclusive results the answer another influential strand of thought contends is that this efficient markets paradigm is fundamentally misleading when applied to capital flows limits on capital movements are a distortion it is an implication of the theory of the second best that removing one distortion need not be welfare enhancing when other distortions are present

too good to be true the unintended signaling effects of educational prestige on external expectations of team performance in this paper we report the results of two experimental studies designed to test how demographic characteristics affect outsiders assessments of a firm s top managers we draw on theories of evaluation and status characteristics to examine the interactive effects of managers racial characteristics and educational prestige on external perceptions in the first study we find that top executives educational background and race affected analysts valuation of a firm s stock outside analysts made the highest stock price projections for firms led by white executives who had highly prestigious educational backgrounds but made the lowest valuations for firms led by african americans with the same prestigious education we posit that the moderating effect of executives racial characteristics stems from outsiders assumptions that african american managers received preferential treatment in the admissions process for high prestige universities in the second study we find that when we explicitly removed the possibility of preferential selection analysts gave the same stock valuation to firms led by white and african american executives with high educational prestige we discuss the implications of these findings for theory and management

what determines individual trade policy preferences abstract this article provides new evidence on the determinants of individual trade policy preferences using individual level survey data for the united states there are two main empirical results first we find that factor type dominates industry of employment in explaining support for trade barriers second we find that home ownership also matters for individuals trade policy preferences independent of factor type home ownership in counties with a manufacturing mix concentrated in comparative disadvantage industries is correlated with support for trade barriers this finding suggests that in addition to current factor incomes driving preferences as in standard trade models preferences also depend on asset values

initial labor market conditions and long term outcomes for economists each year graduate students entering the academic job market worry that they will suffer due to uncontrollable macroeconomic risk given the importance of general human capital and the relative ease of publicly observing productivity in academia one might expect that long term labor market outcomes for students graduating in unfavorable climates will resemble long term outcomes for those graduating in favorable climates in this paper i analyze the relationship between macroeconomic conditions at graduation initial job placement and long term outcomes for ph d economists from seven programs using macroeconomic conditions as an instrument for initial placement i show that a quality and type of initial job have a causal effect on long term job characteristics i also show that better initial placement increases research productivity which helps to limit the set of economic models that can explain the effect of initial placement on long term jobs

asset bubbles economic growth and a self fulfilling financial crisis abstract a tractable model in which asset bubbles can exist in spite of infinitely lived agents is presented an intrinsically useless asset has a positive value and raises welfare because it helps investors with idiosyncratic productivity to obtain more credit in imperfect financial markets however the bubbly equilibrium is only the second best moreover bubbles may burst and this leads to recessions the model s analytical solution allows for the study of many policies we find that a policy of purchasing the asset avoids financial crises but nevertheless results in the second best outcome a policy that taxes depositors and subsidizes investors both prevents crashes and achieves the first best outcome

education market rigidities and growth the paper exploits macro panel data for oecd countries close to the technological frontier the education level product market rigidities and employment protection legislation would be significantly related to tfp growth with a substantial contribution of the interaction between market rigidities

partisanship and the path to financial openness the effect of traditional left right economic preferences on countries international financial openness is more subtle than existing studies have recognized the authors investigate the role that partisan politics played in the liberalization of international financial markets within 12 western european democracies from 1960 to 1986 the authors find that right governments tended to be active liberalizers of the capital account they were more likely than left governments to enact liberalizations and liberalizations were especially likely when new right governments entered office left governments typically acquiesced to these changes although less likely to enact liberalizations they were no more likely to impose new restrictions the authors findings are consistent with studies that show how financial integration does not undermine welfare states but is still subject to partisan contention

estimating labour supply disequilibrium with fixed effects random coefficients regression long term contracting adjustment costs or efficiency wages can make a worker supply fewer more hours than desired at the current economic opportunity set a regression model with cross correlated random coefficients is used to obtain new theoretically based measures of the direction and relative intensity of labour supply disequilibrium among prime aged male hourly paid workers in the united states during 1978 82 evidence of widespread underemployment is found among primeaged male salaried workers some overemployment appears regressions incorporating person specific fixed effects are consistent with a life cycle labour supply model for salaried workers and suggest a need for fresh ways to include short run labour demand forces in micro labour supply models of hourly paid workers

r d implementation and stagnation a schumpeterian theory of convergence clubs we use schumpeterian growth theory to account for the divergence in per capita income that has taken place between countries since the mid 19th century as well as for the convergence that took place amongst the richest countries during the second half of the 20th century the argument is based on the premise that technological change underwent a fundamental transformation in the 19th century associated with new scientific ideas and the increasingly scientific content of new technologies countries then sorted themselves into three convergence groups r d implementation and stagnation a country s group membership depends on initial conditions as well as on fundamentals

ideology and voter preferences as determinants of financial globalization we propose that the global spread of ideas affects international economic openness policies and that to omit ideology as an explanatory variable for economic globalization is to risk omitted variable bias using voting data we create measures of global ideology regarding economic openness and propose that changes in both global and domestic ideology influence how open or closed to international finance an economy is we also test other influences on liberalization including proposed state centered diffusion mechanisms using pcsts and system gmm models we estimate the determinants of change in international capital account regulation for 82 countries 1955 to 1999 we thereby examine diffusion of both liberalizations 1950s and 1990s and closures 1960s and 1970s changes in both global and domestic ideology robustly influence liberalization and closure the capital account policies of neighboring countries positively and of the leading economies negatively also influenced a country s capital account liberalization

demographic variables in demand analysis in this paper the authors discuss five procedures for incorporating demographic variables into theoretically plausible demand systems translating scaling and the gorman reverse gorman and implicit prais houthakker procedures these five procedures are used to incorporate a single demographic variable the number of children in a household into the generalized ces demand system using household budget data for the united kingdom for the period 1966 1972 excerpt

globalization party positions and the median voter the authors argue that the effects of economic globalization on social democratic parties in western europe are conditional on the position of the median voter if the median is far enough to the right such parties will adopt business friendly policies because they are required to win office only when the median is relatively far to the left will globalization constrain social democratic parties forcing them to adopt policies further to the right in order to retain credibility it is on this basis the authors argue that empirical studies are misspecified unless they include an interaction between measures of globalization and the position of the median in addition to presenting formal theoretical arguments the article reports empirical findings from fifteen countries in the period from 1973 to 2002 that support the conclusion that the effects of globalization are indeed contingent on the median the authors find that the effects of globalization are significant for social democratic parties only in circumstances in which the median is relatively far to the left

democracy and financial crisis existing scholarship attributes various political and economic advantages to democratic governance these advantages may make more democratic countries prone to financial crises democracy is characterized by constraints on executive authority accountability through free and fair elections protections for civil liberties and large winning coalitions these characteristics bring important benefits but they can also have unintended consequences that increase the likelihood of financial instability and crises using data covering the past two centuries i demonstrate a strong relationship between democracy and financial crisis onset on average democracies are about twice as likely to experience a crisis as autocracies this is an empirical regularity that is robust across a wide range of model specifications and time periods

getting known by the company you keep publicizing the qualifications and former associations of skilled employees when product quality cannot be ascertained in advance of purchase producers must convince relevant audiences that they are worthy of consideration as quality players we propose that quality oriented producers will selectively publicize information about their skilled employees in anticipation of signaling benefits which include the accrual of visibility and the projection of quality based identities we validate our perspective on publicizing affiliation information by analyzing how a sample of australian wine producers publicized specific career information about their skilled employees i e their winemakers including the names of certain former employers of these individuals copyright 2009 oxford university press

experience and entrepreneurship a career transition perspective the authors cast entrepreneurship as one of three career choices remaining with one s employer changing employers or engaging in entrepreneurship and theorize how the likelihood of entrepreneursh

human capital risk and economic growth this paper develops a tractable incomplete markets model of economic growth in which households invest in risk free physical capital and risky human capital the paper shows that a reduction in uninsurable idiosyncratic labor income risk decreases physical capital investment but increases human capital investment growth and welfare a quantitative analysis based on a calibrated version of the model reveals that these effects are substantial and of the same order of magnitude as the effects of distortionary income taxation the analysis further suggests that government sponsored severance payments to displaced workers increase growth and welfare even if these payments have to be e nanced through distortionary income taxation

the globalization of liberalization policy diffusion in the international political economy one of the most important developments over the past three decades has been the spread of liberal economic ideas and policies throughout the world these policies have affected the lives of millions of people yet our most sophisticated political economy models do not adequately capture influences on these policy choices evidence suggests that the adoption of liberal economic practices is highly clustered both temporally and spatially we hypothesize that this clustering might be due to processes of policy diffusion we think of diffusion as resulting from one of two broad sets of forces one in which mounting adoptions of a policy alter the benefits of adopting for others and another in which adoptions provide policy relevant information about the benefits of adopting we develop arguments within these broad classes of mechanisms construct appropriate measures of the relevant concepts and test their effects on liberalization and restriction of the current account the capital account and the exchange rate regime our findings suggest that domestic models of foreign economic policy making are insufficient the evidence shows that policy transitions are influenced by international economic competition as well as the policies of a country s sociocultural peers we interpret the latter influence as a form of channeled learning reflecting governments search for appropriate models for economic policy

the world trade organisation s doha cotton initiative a tale of two issues four west african nations have demanded that the world trade organization s doha development agenda include a cotton initiative that involves two issues cutting cotton subsidies and tariffs and assisting farm productivity growth in africa the authors provide estimates of the potential economic impacts of 1 complete or partial removal of cotton subsidies and import tariffs globally and 2 cotton productivity growth through the adoption of genetically modified gm cotton varieties they use the latest version of the gtap database and model their results confirm that unlike for other agricultural subsidies and tariffs for cotton it is subsidy reductions rather than tariff cuts that would make by far the largest impact for sub saharan africa the potential gains are huge relative to the effects on that region of reforming other merchandise trade policies and they could be more than doubled if that reform provided the cash for farmers to take advantage of the biotechnology revolution and adopt gm cotton varieties but those potential gains and the affordability of switching to costly gm seed depend crucially on the extent to which high income countries are willing to lower domestic support to their cotton farmers

who benefits from financial development new methods new evidence abstract this paper takes a fresh look at the impact of financial development on economic growth by using recently developed kernel methods that allow for heterogeneity in partial effects nonlinearities and endogenous regressors our results suggest that while the positive impact of financial development on growth has increased over time it is also highly nonlinear with more developed nations benefiting while low income countries do not benefit at all we also conduct a novel policy analysis that confirms these statistical findings in sum this set of results contributes to the ongoing policy debate as to whether low income nations should scale up financial reforms

doha merchandise trade reform what is at stake for developing countries this paper provides new estimates of the global gains from multilateral trade reform and their distribution among developing countries in the presence of trade preferences particular attention is given to agriculture as farmers constitute the poorest households in developing countries but are the most assisted in rich countries the latest gtap database version 6 05 and the linkage model of the global economy are used to examine the impact first of current merchandise trade barriers and agricultural subsidies and then of possible reform outcomes from the wto s doha development agenda the results suggest moving to free global merchandise trade would boost real incomes in sub saharan africa proportionately more than in other developing countries or high income countries despite a terms of trade loss in parts of that region net farm incomes would rise substantially in that and other developing country regions thereby alleviating rural poverty a doha partial liberalization could move the world some way toward those desirable outcomes but more so the more developing countries themselves cut applied tariffs particularly on agricultural imports

institutional causes macroeconomic symptoms volatility crises and growth countries that have pursued distortionary macroeconomic policies including high inflation large budget deficits and misaligned exchange rates appear to have suffered more macroeconomic volatility and also grown more slowly during the postwar period does this reflect the causal effect of these macroeconomic policies on economic outcomes one reason to suspect that the answer may be no is that countries pursuing poor macroeconomic policies also have weak institutions including political institutions that do not constrain politicians and political elites ineffective enforcement of property rights for investors widespread corruption and a high degree of political instability this paper documents that countries that inherited more extractive institutions from their colonial past were more likely to experience high volatility and economic crises during the postwar period more specifically societies where european colonists faced high mortality rates more than 100 years ago are much more volatile and prone to crises based on our previous work we interpret this relationship as due to the causal effect of institutions on economic outcomes europeans did not settle and were more likely to set up extractive institutions in areas where they faced high mortality once we control for the effect of institutions macroeconomic policies appear to have only a minor impact on volatility and crises this suggests that distortionary macroeconomic policies are more likely to be symptoms of underlying institutional problems rather than the main causes of economic

competing for capital the diffusion of bilateral investment treaties 1960 2000 over the past forty five years bilateral investment treaties bits have become the most important international legal mechanism for the encouragement and governance of foreign direct investment the proliferation of bits during the past two decades in particular has been phenomenal these intergovernmental treaties typically grant extensive rights to foreign investors including protection of contractual rights and the right to international arbitration in the event of an investment dispute how can we explain the widespread adoption of bits we argue that the spread of bits is driven by international competition among potential host countries typically developing countries for foreign direct investment we propose a set of hypotheses that derive from such an explanation and develop a set of empirical tests that rely on network measures of economic competition as well as more indirect evidence of competitive pressures on the host to sign bits the evidence suggests that potential hosts are more likely to sign bits when their competitors have done so we find some evidence that coercion and learning play a role but less support for cultural explanations based on emulation our main finding is that the diffusion of bits is associated with competitive economic pressures among developing countries to capture a share of foreign investment we are agnostic at this point about the benefits of this competition for development for useful comments on earlier drafts of this article we thank bill bernhard bear braumoeller frank dobbin robert franzese jeffry frieden geoffrey garrett tom ginsburg jude hays lisa martin bob pahre mark ramsayer steven ratner susan rose ackerman and john sides for research assistance we thank elizabeth burden raechel groom and alexander noonan

current account imbalances and systemic risk within a monetary union abstract the aim of this paper is to cast light on possible influences of current account imbalances on the escalation of systemic risk which hit the eurozone the hypothesis which was set up by examining empirical evidence points to heterogeneity across the macroeconomic conditions prevailing in different clusters of emu countries given the strengthened financial and real interconnections across the emu countries the capital flows triggered by widening distances between surplus and deficit trade balances and also between sound and deteriorating public budgets represent an important factor magnifying systemic risk and contagion the econometric estimates we conducted concern two sub periods the two decades from the launch of the ems in 1979 to 1999 and the first twelve years 1999 2010 of the monetary union the findings sound as a confirmation that the strengthened financial and real interconnections across the emu countries instead of facilitating convergence among the core and the peripheral economies have magnified and mutually reinforced imbalances the divide between surplus and deficit countries the backward emu countries running larger current account deficits and the more advanced countries accumulating larger current account surpluses have brought about increasing capital outflows from the periphery to pay for excess imports from the core conversely increasing capital flows were invested by the banks of the core countries in the periphery s public bonds

globalization as galton s problem the missing link in the analysis of diffusion patterns in welfare state development most macro cross national studies in political science that analyze the impact of globalization on domestic policies do not sufficiently consider the meth odological consequences of diffusion processes or galton s problem as it is often referred to i argue that globalization is a form of diffusion therefore it requires a shift from an exclusively functional analysis which dominates in almost all estab lished comparative studies in the field to a diffusional analysis i assume that glob alization leads to a shift in focus on the part of political actors from domestic to international issues i test this hypothesis by examining social expenditure rates of sixteen highly developed welfare states the results indicate that globalization has become a highly influential factor since the late 1980s in contrast to the years before in addition to the actual results presented here the methodological approach of ana lyzing globalization as diffusion is relevant to other areas of comparative and inter national politics and may be a tool in future research

some consequences of credit rationing in an endogenous growth model an endogenous growth model is developed where all investment is financed via credit extension there is also an adverse selection problem in loan markets so that in equilibrium credit rationing arises endogenously the result is that equilibrium levels of credit rationing and real growth rates are jointly determined in this context several changes in the environment can have unusual consequences for instance improvements in the technology for producing capital can reduce growth because of their adverse impacts on credit rationing for similar reasons various government investment subsidies can be growth reducing this phenomenon is often observed empirically

international institutions and domestic compensation the imf and the politics of capital account liberalization certain governments have been faster than others in relaxing their restrictions on the cross border movement of capital how can we explain the timing and extent of financial liberalization across countries since the 1970s we argue that imf stabilizationprogramsprovideawindowofopportunityforgovernmentstoinitiatefinancialreforms butthatpolicymakers are more likely to seize this opportunity when welfare expenditures are high large loans from the imf shield policy makers from the costs of financial reform while welfare expenditures provide credibility to the government s ex ante promises of compensation to individuals who are harmed by the reforms we test this hypothesis on data for 87 countries from 1975 to 2002 we employ a spatial autoregressive error sample selection model which accounts for the nonrandom participation of countries in imf programs as well as the processes of international policy diffusion the results provide strong support for the interactive effect of imf programs and domestic welfare expenditures on financial liberalization

dispelling some misconceptions about agricultural trade liberalization there has been a great deal of public discussion over the impact that agricultural trade liberalization would likely have especially on low income countries unfortunately the public discussion has been characterized by a number of misconceptions this paper provides a clarifying discussion of the issues involved among the key points addressed are 1 agricultural subsidies are not nearly as large as has been portrayed 2 tariffs are actually far more distortionary than subsidies and some low income countries actually benefit from rich country subsides and 3 widespread tariff reductions will not inflict large damage on developing countries as a result of preference erosion the case for removing agricultural trade barriers remains compelling even without the exaggerations and misconceptions

the dynamics of the wealth distribution and the interest rate with credit rationing are uniquely determined and wealth dispersion among individuals or firms is irrelevant introducing credit rationing into the solow model modifies these conclusions multiple stationary interest rates and wealth distributions can exist because higher initial rates can be self reinforcing through higher credit rationing and lower capital accumulation the wealth accumulation process is ergodic in every steady state but wealth mobility is lower with higher steady state interest rates aggregate output is higher in steady states with lower interest rates because credit is better allocated short run interest rate or distribution shocks can be self sustaining and can have long run effects on output through the induced dynamics of the wealth distribution and credit rationing

the making of an investment banker stock market shocks career choice and lifetime income i show that stock market shocks have important and lasting effects on the careers of mbas stock market conditions while mba students are in school have a large effect on whether they go directly to wall street upon graduation further starting on wall street immediately upon graduation causes a person to be more likely to work there later and to earn on average substantially more money the empirical results suggest that investment bankers are largely made by circumstance rather than born to work on wall street

the origins of financial openness a study of current and capital account liberalization theory we assess the determinants of the national regulation of international finance or the comparative degree of national financial openness or closure hypotheses partisanship interacts with a nation s factor endowments to account in part for different international financial policies by governments of the same partisan hue methods we offer a quantitative measure of international financial openness or current and capital account regulation for 21 member countries of the organization for economic cooperation and development for 1950 88 we use regression analysis employing panel corrected standard errors to discover the determinants of financial openness results our main finding is that political partisanship substantially explains openness but does so in complex ways differences in both political institutional arrangements and types of political economy also account for part of the differences in international financial regulation

testing whether unemployment represents intertemporal labour supply behaviour in the lucas rapping 1969 model of the labour market fluctuations in unemployment represent individuals optimally adjusting their labour supply behaviour in response to fluctuations in wage rates over the business cycle in this paper i propose and implement a misspecification test of the lucas rapping treatment of unemployment as labour supply behaviour using panel data this test extends previous such work with micro data by simultaneously allowing for intertemporal substitution uncertainty and endogenous unemployment using the standard specification of intertemporal labour supply behaviour i find strong evidence against this interpretation of unemployment there are two possible interpretations of the test results the first is that it is necessary to turn to alternative models of the labour market in which unemployed workers are off a supply function the second is that the test results indicate the necessity of moving to more complex models of intertemporal substitution however given current econometric techniques and data sets these alternative models of intertemporal substitution will be extremely difficult to test

the effect of financial development on convergence theory and evidence we introduce imperfect creditor protection in a multicountry schumpeterian growth model the theory predicts that any country with more than some critical level of financial development will converge to the growth rate of the world technology frontier and that all other countries will have a strictly lower long run growth rate we present evidence supporting these and other implications in the form of a cross country growth regression with a significant and sizable negative coefficient on initial per capita gdp relative to the united states interacted with financial intermediation in addition we find that other variables representing schooling geography health policy politics and institutions do not affect the significance of the interaction between financial intermediation and initial per capita gdp and do not show any independent effect on convergence in the regressions our findings are robust to removal of outliers and to alternative conditioning sets estimation procedures and measures of financial development

the international diffusion of public sector downsizing network emulation and theory driven learning we examine change in the size of the public sector between 1980 and 1997 across twenty six organization for economic cooperation and development oecd member nations with particular attention to diffusion dynamics general method of moments gmm analyses demonstrate imitation of shifts in government employment within the united states and mutual influence among nations that are geographically proximate and that trade extensively disaggregated analyses show that downsizing is contagious while upsizing is not proximate downsizers but not upsizers are imitated and states act on evidence that downsizing is economically beneficial while ignoring evidence that it is harmful we argue that these asymme tries in emulation and learning are a product of the dominance of neoliberal and managerialist discourses that legitimate and theorize shrinking the public sector the twentieth century as a whole and particularly the three decades after world war ii witnessed steady growth in government size and responsibility states devel oped extensive social safety nets actively managed aggregate demand and regu lated a widening swath of economic and social life this trajectory of expansion was linked to powerful forces of economic development and demographic change and anchored in a broad political consensus 1 the 1980s and 1990s saw a sea change in the rate of public sector growth brit ish prime minister margaret thatcher and u s president ronald reagan led the way with privatization outsourcing and load shedding of public responsibilities but the shift in direction was not limited to radicals on the right country reports

cumulative gender disadvantage in contract employment women s wages do not grow with experience or tenure as much as men s do many accounts of this cumulative gender disadvantage attribute it to women s underinvestment in firm specific skills yet if that were true this disadvantage would not exist where firm specific skills are not rewarded by the labor market this article investigates this argument in the context of contract employment where demand for firm specificity is minimal contrary to expectations men still receive higher rewards than women over time drawing on quantitative evidence and qualitative fieldwork using job histories of high skill contractors affiliated with a staffing firm the author finds support for two sources of women s disadvantage lower rates of movement across clients on the supply side and unmeasured demand side factors by which similar levels of tenure and client transitions accrue lower rewards to women implications for research on gender stratification and career advancement in nonformalized labor markets are discussed

explaining ethiopia s growth acceleration the role of infrastructure and macroeconomic policy summary ethiopia has experienced an impressive growth acceleration over the past decade this was achieved on the back of an economic strategy emphasizing public infrastructure investment supported by heterodox macro financial policies this paper identifies the drivers of ethiopia s recent growth episode and examines the extent to which they were typical or unique it combines country specific information with the results of a cross country panel regression model we find that ethiopia s growth is explained well by factors correlating with growth in a broad range of countries in recent decades including public infrastructure investment restrained government consumption and a conducive external environment on the other hand we argue that the policy mix that supported very high levels of public investment in ethiopia was to some extent unique interestingly macroeconomic imbalances due to this heterodox policy mix only moderately held back growth which helps explain why ethiopia was able to grow so fast in spite of their presence their negative effects were quantitatively much less important than the positive growth drivers they helped to achieve the results suggest that getting infrastructure right may outweigh moderate shortcoming in the macro framework at early stages of development we further relate this country specific finding to the recent growth literature

financial development and economic growth views and agenda this critique argues that the preponderance of theoretical reasoning and empirical evidence suggests a positive first order relationship between financial development and economic growth the body of work would push even most skeptics toward the belief that the development of financial markets and institutions is a critical and inextricable part of the growth process and away from the view that the financial system is an inconsequential sideshow responding passively to economic growth many gaps remain however and the paper highlights areas in acute need of additional research

balanced budget rules and fiscal outcomes evidence from historical constitutions this paper studies the long run fiscal consequences of balanced budget rules bbr that are enshrined in a country s constitution using historical data dating back to the 19th century and applying a difference in difference approach we find that the introduction of a constitutional bbr reduces government debt to gdp and expenditure to gdp ratios on average by around 11 and 3 percentage points respectively we do not find evidence that bbrs affect tax revenues our analysis indicates that such rules reduce the probability of experiencing a debt crisis and that the effective enforcement of bbrs can be conditional on the quality of democratic institutions in addition we implement an instrumental variable approach by instrumenting the probability of having budget rules on de jure constraints on changing the constitution this and other tests suggest that the relations we find are largely causal going from bbrs to fiscal outcomes