work hours wages and vacation leave using the panel study of income dynamics the authors provide a set of facts about vacation leave they show that on average vacation time taken rises one to one with paid vacation annual hours worked fall by about one full time week with every week of paid vacation the amount by which vacation time taken exceeds time paid is highest for women union members and government workers paid vacation weeks are positively associated with hourly wage rates and to a lesser extent with nonwage compensation and vacation time taken is weakly countercyclical vacation leave seems to be determined by broad employer policy rather than by negotiation between the worker and the firm in particular it is strongly related to seniority but depends very little on labor market experience and for job changers it is only weakly related to vacation on the previous job

employer initiated job terminations recent interest in pension reform and mandatory retirement has led to a considerable body of literature on job separation the analysis has however focused primarily on the employee s reasons for and reaction to job separation much less attention has been paid to the theoretical factors influencing the employer s decision to terminate a person s employment much of the debate centers on questions concerning the productivity of older workers representatives of the elderly not only argue that members of their constituency want to continue to work but that they are highly productive the implication is that if employers terminate older workers it must reflect employer discrimination against equally productive but older workers becker 1 however argues that the case for discrimination is weak competitive markets would lead to nondiscriminating firms driving out the discriminatory firms furthermore since employers will someday become old they are less likely to discriminate on the basis of age than other factors such as race or sex the implication is that if older workers are being terminated this must reflect that their productivities have dropped below their wages this paper explores the relationship between productivities and compensation paid by a nondiscriminatory employer who terminates older workers the analysis yields answers to the following questions at what point will a firm decide to terminate the employment of a person embodying the employer s investment in specific training if productivities vary with age how does the productivity of an older terminated worker compare with that of a younger worker have older workers passed their peak productivity years

optimal job assignment and investment in specific human capital an application to professional teachers the purpose of this paper is to analyse the impact of asymmetric information upon labour market decisions first in the face of uncertainty concerning person specific information self selection employment contracts develop which induce sorting within the labour market second we show the existence of a smaller share in investment in specific human capital for those who accept the self selection contract relative to those who refuse such contracts thus the earnings of those who accept such contracts are less responsive to changes in specific human capital than the earnings of those who refuse these contracts third we applied the model to the market for professional teachers in british columbia canada the results of the empirical tests were shown to be consistent with the hypotheses proposed in addition once we controlled for the level of and the distribution to human capital the public independent earnings differential fell from 64 3 to 23 9

teacher testing teacher education and teacher characteristics school officials and legislators have long been concerned with the possibility of declining teacher quality see e g sean corcoran et al 2002 beginning in the 1960 s states began testing prospective teachers in a direct effort to ensure that teachers meet minimum standards for basic skills and subject knowledge by 1999 41 states required applicants to pass some sort of standardized certification test as a theoretical matter however the impact of such testing is ambiguous test requirements may establish a minimum achievement standard as their proponents hope on the other hand testing and other certification requirements may deter some qualified applicants from teaching if these requirements are perceived as costly this is the barriers to entry story first noted in the occupational licensing context by milton f friedman and simon kuznets 1945 another concern with job applicant testing is the possibility of an adverse impact on minority candidates who usually do worse on tests see david autor and david scarborough 2003 for a recent study paralleling increased state involvement in teacher certification is the increase in teachers educational credentials especially in public schools for example in 1971 over two thirds of public school teachers had a b a while only 27 percent had a master s or education specialist s degree by 1991 however over half of public school teachers 52 6 percent had a master s or education specialist s degree in contrast the proportion of private school teachers

job change patterns and the wages of young men this study uses data from the national longitudinal survey of youth to distinguish empirically between mover stayer search good and experience good models of job mobility we estimate wage models in which the pattern of overall job mobility affects both the level and tenure slope of the log wage path after controlling for the correlation between mobility patterns and time constant person and job specific unobservables we find that workers who undergo persistent mobility have lower log wage paths than less mobile workers this finding is consistent with models in which job mobility is driven by time varying unobservables such as experience good models where changes in perceived match quality cause turnover

implicit contracts moral hazard and unemployment this paper considers a firm whose marginal revenue product of labor is a random variable we derive the form of an optimal long term contract between workers and the firm under the assumption that labor s marginal product is observed by the firm but not by the workers we show that the existence of asymmetric information causes unemployment to be greater than in a situation where information about labor s marginal product is public or where employment is determined in spot markets in particular unemployment can occur when the marginal product of labor exceeds the reservation wage

tax reform and automatic stabilization an income tax provides implicit insurance by dampening the variability of disposable income and consumption using an empirical framework derived from the consumption insurance literature and data from the panel study of income dynamics we examine the effect of federal income tax reforms of the 1980 s on automatic stabilization of consumption overall erta and tra86 reduced consumption stability by about 50 percent recently increased eitc generosity restored or enhanced consumption insurance the welfare cost of moving to the post tra86 system is sizable for relatively risk averse households facing large income risk but is much more modest for the typical household jel h21

global trading versus linking architectures for international emissions trading abstract international emissions trading is widely seen as an indispensable policy pillar of climate change mitigation stern n 2007 the economics of climate change the stern review cambridge university press new york this article analyzes five different types of trading architectures classified into two top down unfccc driven and three bottom up driven by individual countries or regions approaches the two types of approaches are characterized by a trade off between environmental effectiveness and political feasibility respectively whereas their relative cost effectiveness depends on implementation details bottom up architectures constitute imperfect substitutes for top down architectures in terms of environmental effectiveness and thus remain mere fallback options however especially the formal linking architecture can act as complement in terms of cost effectiveness

implicit contracts life cycle labor supply and intertemporal substitution the implicit contract model is a serious alternative to the spot market interpretation of the labor market however its usefulness has been limited because the wage is unobserved and hence it has not been possible to estimate an intertemporal frisch supply elasticity for the model using microdata in this article we show that one can estimate this elasticity from microdata within the context of the implicit contract model under relatively weak assumptions based on consumer theory we implement our approach on two micro data sets and for both obtain a reasonably precise elasticity estimate of approximately 1 0

the case for international emission trade in the absence of cooperative climate policy we evaluate the efficacy of international trade in carbon emission permits when countries are guided strictly by their national self interest to do so we construct a calibrated general equilibrium model that jointly describes the world economy and the strategic incentives that guide the design of national abatement policies countries decisions about their participation in a trading system and about their initial permit endowment are made noncooperatively so a priori it is not clear that permit trade will induce participation in international abatement agreements or that participation will result in significant environmental gains despite this we find that emission trade agreements can be effective that smaller groupings pairing developing and developed world partners often perform better than agreements with larger rosters and that general equilibrium responses play an important role in shaping these outcomes

are unemployment and out of the labor force behaviorally distinct labor force states this paper tests the hypothesis that the classifications unemployed and out of the labor force are behaviorally meaningless distinctions this hypothesis is rejected distinct behavioral equations govern transitions from out of the labor force to employment and from unemployment to employment the evidence reported in this paper is broadly consistent with versions of search theory in which unemployment is a state that facilitates the job search process in an appendix we demonstrate that log concavity of the wage offer distribution implies that the exit rate from unemployment is an increasing function of the rate of arrival of job offers

an empirical model of labor supply in a life cycle setting this paper formulates and estimates a structural intertemporal model of labor supply using theoretical characterizations derived from an economic model of lifetime behavior a two step empirical analysis yields estimates of intertemporal and uncompensated substitution effects which provide the information needed to predict the response of hours of work to life cycle wage growth and shifts in the lifetime wage path

allocation inflexibilities female labor supply and housing assets accumulation are women working to pay the mortgage this article uses data from the 1986 canadian family expenditures survey to estimate a life cycle consistent model of household labor supply and commodity demand that incorporates a mortgage qualification constraint based on earnings both the parametric and nonparametric implications of the model suggest that the labor supply of a nontrivial percentage of married women is constrained by mortgage commitments the results of generalized selectivity models of female labor force participation and labor supply show that the positive effect of a high debt service ratio exceeds the negative effect of young children

adverse selection without single crossing monotone solutions abstract the single crossing assumption simplifies the analysis of screening models as local incentive compatibility becomes sufficient for global incentive compatibility if single crossing is violated global incentive compatibility constraints have to be taken into account this paper studies monotone solutions in a screening model that allows a one time violation of single crossing the results show that local and non local incentive constraints distort the solution in opposite directions therefore the optimal decision might involve distortions above as well as below the first best decision furthermore the well known no distortion at the top property does not necessarily hold the results show that the decision can even be distorted above first best for all types sufficient conditions for existence strict monotonicity and continuity of the solution are presented a new necessary condition satisfied by such solutions is found an algorithm based on this condition can calculate continuous and strictly monotone solutions

sampling variability some observations from a labour supply equation in economics the number of observations available for empirical work is often predetermined researchers assume some large sample distribution and carry through with measurement and testing applied to data sets of varying sizes the consequences of sampling variability are generally ignored it is shown in a re sampling experiment using data sets of different sizes and estimating log linear male labour supply equations that a wide range of what appears to be statistically supported estimates of the wage elasticity of labour supply are generated testing based on bootstrapped estimates shows that 4000 observations are required to reduce sampling variability to statistically acceptable levels

an equilibrium analysis of wage productivity gaps we develop a model in which each firm chooses a hiring standard as well as a wage schedule and an application fee we then characterize the set of nash equilibria and establish necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of equilibrium if the distribution of productivities within each ability type is gaussian workers who pass the test will be paid more than the value of their marginal product while workers who fail the test will receive a wage net of the application fee below the value of their marginal product

an empirical analysis of the co2 shadow price in chinese thermal power enterprises abstract this paper estimates the shadow price of co2 and explores its determinants for thermal power enterprises in china using a parametric quadratic directional distance function we evaluate the inefficiency and shadow price of co2 for 124 power enterprises in 2004 applying deterministic and econometric methods a regression analysis is undertaken to examine the factors that drive shadow prices our results indicate that there are large inefficiencies in terms of electricity production and co2 emissions the shadow price is a negative function of firm size age and coal share and is positively correlated with the technology level this correlation between shadow prices and its determinants is not sensitive to changing assumptions regarding directional vectors although such changes do alter the distribution of shadow prices the large variation witnessed in shadow prices across power enterprises argues in favor of market based regulation such as an emissions trading system as opposed to the command and control regulation currently used in china to minimize overall abatement cost

specific human capital and sorting mechanisms in labor markets three major avenues of research on employment contracts which incorporate asymmetric information have been pursued first researchers have considered contracts in which the supply of employee effort is costly to monitor 3 8 9 12 second the allocation of labor has been examined when innate person specific characteristics are unobservable 4 5 14 15 third employment contracts have been designed when economic agents are uncertain about the state of nature concerning the worker s marginal product and the employee s reservation wage 6 7 this research agenda has provided an elaborate array of models which yield employment contracts that reduce the distortionary effects of asymmetric information however these models have two major short comings first under uncertainty concerning personspecific information employers have an incentive to screen employees the existing literature has analyzed two distinct screening mechanisms guasch and weiss 4 5 consider screening through wages while white 15 has considered screening through specific human capital however each mechanism has been analyzed in isolation the present paper combines these screening mechanisms and examines the impact of each upon the optimal employment contract second although the existing literature on employment contracts offers a general framework for analysis it is not directly amenable to empirical verification the present paper rectifies these short comings by developing a model which incorporates both screening mechanisms under asymmetric information and thereby provides a model conducive to empirical verification in our analysis three major simplifying assumptions are made first because we assume employees have no choice regarding the effort they supply we abstract from the agency problem discussed in the literature cited above second we assume employees differ in their innate person specific characteristics the latter is assumed to be observed by

burden sharing in a greenhouse egalitarianism and sovereignty reconciled the allocation of emission entitlements across countries is the single most controversial issue in international climate policy extreme positions within the policy debate range from entitlements based on current emission patterns sovereignty to entitlements based on equal per capita allocations egalitarianism this paper shows that gradual convergence from sovereignty towards egalitarianism could provide a pragmatic solution to the equity debate when combined with international emissions trading the convergence approach stands out for offering the developing countries substantial incentives for participation in the international greenhouse gas abatement effort without imposing excessive burdens on the industrialized countries

testing between competing models of real business cycles this paper tests a real business cycle model with efficient long term labor contracts the efficient long term contract model against a standard real business cycle model the intertemporal substitution model in the former model employment and real wages are determined by bilateral dynamic bargaining between firms and workers in the latter model employment and real wages are determined instead by the dynamic optimization of households within the competitive market framework we estimate each model using aggregate japanese data our results show that the data are consistent with the efficient long term contract model but are inconsistent with the intertemporal substitution model a business cycle phenomenon is typically found in time series data on employment and real wages according to the data of almost all developed countries employment fluctuations are considerably greater than wage fluctuations many recent economic studies have attempted to explain this phenomenon most of these studies fall into the equilibrium business cycle theory in which business cycles are the result of individual agents optimizing in a competitive environment among the most famous early examples of such a theory are the rational expectations general equilibrium models of lucas 1972 and barro 1976 which stress the role of nominal shocks in the presence of imperfect information more recently the predominant equilibrium business cycle theory has been the real business cycle model of kydland and prescott 1982 long and plosser 1983 and king and plosser 1984 which emphasizes the importance of real shocks to production technology real business cycle theory considers a model economy populated by a single infinitely lived individual with given initial resources production possibilities and tastes the representative individual chooses a preferred consumption production plan and the resulting allocation is pareto optimal the implications of real business cycle theory are thus derived from the pareto optimal equilibrium allocation as calculated from the planning problem of a social planner or representative agent a policy implication of this theory is that monetary policy has no significant effect

evidence on the validity of cross sectional and longitudinal labor market data this article investigates error properties of survey reports of labor market variables we use the panel study of income dynamics psid validation study a two wave panel survey of workers employed by a large firm that shared its detailed payroll records individuals reports of annual earnings are fairly accurate errors are negatively related to true earnings reducing bias due to measurement error when earnings are used as an independent variable biases are moderately larger for changes in earnings earnings per hour are less reliably reported than annual earnings biases in estimating earnings functions are relatively small but those in labor supply functions may be important

an empirical look at franchising as an organizational form franchise contracts are identified as a hybrid form of economic organization motives for the dominance of franchise arrangements are identified by examining the theoretical literature on franchising and related literatures on the theory of the firm firm growth managerial and employee selection a nd brand name capital empirical tests are performed on the incidence of franchise contracts across states for three industries in which f ranchising is prominent and data are readily available the results s uggest that both principal agent incentives and informational incenti ves favor the use of franchise arrangements copyright 1988 by the university of chicago

industry level emission trading between power producers in the eu in this paper we investigate how restrictions for emission trading to the energy intensive power sector will affect the magnitude and distribution of abatement costs across eu countries vis a vis a comprehensive eu emission trading regime we find that emission trading between european power sectors allows the harvest of a major part of the efficiency gains provided by full trade as compared to strictly domestic action however trade restrictions may create a more unequal distribution of abatement costs across member states than is the case for a comprehensive trade regime the reason for this is that restricted permit trade enhances the secondary terms of trade benefits to eu member countries with low marginal abatement costs at the expense of the other eu member states

finite sample bias in iv estimation of intertemporal labor supply models is the intertemporal substitution elasticity really small the empirical literature on intertemporal labor supply behavior documents that the intertemporal elasticity of substitution of labor supply is very low with a plausible range of zero to 0 2 drawing upon the literature on the distribution of instrumental variables iv estimators this paper demonstrates that this conventional wisdom is erroneous because it does not take into account the severe finite sample bias in these estimates that arise from weak instruments this paper adopts several approaches to adjust for the problems induced by these weak instruments the empirical results show that when uncorrected for finite sample bias the two stage least squares 2sls estimate of the elasticity is essentially zero as in most of the previous studies with its valid confidence interval being open ended however when corrected for finite sample bias the estimate becomes approximately 0 5 with a much tighter confidence interval

the intertemporal substitution model of labour market fluctuations an empirical analysis the paper uses two approaches to study whether aggregate fluctuations in employment and unemployment may be explained within a market clearing framework as intertemporal substitution in labour supply first log linear equations for labour supply and unemployment are estimated using a forecasting model to measure wage and price expectations second a utility function is used to derive and estimate an equation for labour supply as a function of the current real wage and consumption the influence of expected future real wages and interest rates is captured by the consumption variable the empirical results do not support the intertemporal substitution model

unemployment in the united kingdom since the war in this paper we first present a competitive macroeconomic model of an open economy which is suitable for estimation and contrast this with a non competitive model we then derive unemployment equations from the various models and estimate them over annual data from 1948 1979 we draw the following conclusions i the competitive model of the labour market does not fit the facts ii the non competitive model generates an equation for the constant inflation rate of unemployment which reveals how at certain times such as the mid 1970s a combination of factors conspired to raise this level forcing the government into a deflationary stance to prevent inflation rising drastically iii a number of factors have raised the level of unemployment in a secular fashion since the war in particular the increase in the variation of relative prices the increase in the benefit to income ratio the introduction of employment protection legislation and the rise in the intersectoral shifts of the labour force

optimal labour contracts under asymmetric information an introduction the review of economic studies has instituted a new series of lectures to be given annually by a younger british economist at the association of university teachers of economics meetings the choice of lecturer is determined by a panel whose members are currently professors hahn mirrlees and nobay this paper is a revised version of the first lecture in the series it was presented at the aute meeting held at the university of surrey in april 1982 and was refereed in the usual way mak

deferred compensation vs efficiency wages an experimental test of effort provision and self selection abstract we compare the ability of two common compensation structures efficiency wages ew and deferred compensation dc at inducing effort from workers we test predictions on effort provision and elicit preferences between the two wage structures the theoretical predictions on effort are generally well supported although we find over provision of effort with ew in consequence although the theoretical prediction that dc is more cost effective is supported the difference is small we also find a marked preference for ew that cannot be explained by risk aversion the two effects combine to largely dissipate any advantage that dc may have in inducing effort

relative wage movements and the distribution of consumption we analyze how relative wage movements among birth cohorts and education groups affected the distribution of household consumption and economic welfare our empirical work draws on the best available cross sectional data sets to construct synthetic panel data on u s consumption labor supply and wages during the 1980s we find that low frequency movements in the cohort education structure of pretax hourly wages among men drove large changes in the distribution of household consumption the results constitute a spectacular failure of between group consumption insurance a failure not explained by existing theories of informationally constrained optimal consumption behavior a welfare analysis indicates that the cost of between group consumption variability is larger than the cost of aggregate consumption variability by two orders of magnitude

explaining organizational diseconomies of scale in r d agency problems and the allocation of engineering talent ideas and effort by firm size the comparative efficiency and success of small firms in r d remains largely unexplained this paper empirically examines scale diseconomies in offering employment contracts as an explanation for diseconomies of scale in r d the paper argues that small firms more efficiently resolve the severe agency problems of hidden information and hidden behavior in r d small firms more efficiently offer contracts that reward performance than large firms and consequently small firms attract and retain engineers with higher ability and skill further small firms through these more performance contingent contracts induce higher levels of effort than large firms the study tests and generally confirms these hypotheses using data collected from 912 current and former engineering employees of two large high technology companies

testing efficient risk sharing with heterogeneous risk preferences previous papers have tested e cient risk sharing under the assumption of identical risk preferences in this paper we show that if in the data households have heterogeneous risk preferences the tests proposed in the past reject e ciency even if households share risk e ciently to address this issue we propose a method that enables one to test e ciency even when households have difierent preferences for risk the method is composed of three tests the flrst one can be used to determine whether in the data under investigation households have homogeneous risk preferences the second and third test can be used to evaluate e cient risk sharing when the hypothesis of homogeneous risk preferences is rejected we use this method to test e cient risk sharing in rural india using the flrst test we strongly reject the hypothesis of identical risk preferences we then test e ciency with and without the assumption of preference homogeneity in the flrst case we reject e cient risk sharing at the village and caste level in the second case we still reject e ciency at the village level but we cannot reject this hypothesis at the caste level this flnding suggests that the relevant risk sharing unit in rural india is the caste and not the village

market power and hot air in international emissions trading the impacts of us withdrawal from the kyoto protocol ten years after the initial climate change convention from rio in 1992 the industrialized world is finally likely to ratify the kyoto protocol which will impose legally binding greenhouse gas emission reductions on the developed world however the kyoto protocol will enter into force without the usa which withdrew under president bush in march 2001 accounting for hot air and market power of the former soviet union on emission permit markets it is shown that us withdrawal has important consequences on environmental effectiveness compliance costs and excess costs of market power under the kyoto protocol non compliance of the usa implies a dramatic decrease in environmental effectiveness as well as compliance costs of oecd countries whereas the former soviet union and transitional economies in eastern europe suffer from a huge decline in permit sales revenues excess costs of market power in permit trade increase in relative terms but decline substantially in absolute terms due to us withdrawal pol

labour market conditions and labour force participation the case of the netherlands we develop a model to explain the relationship between unemployment and labour force participation by males and females in the netherlands following recent advances in the literature a distinction is made between temporary and permanent unemployment our findings indicate that male labour force participation is significantly influenced by the temporary unemployment variable while permanent unemployment does not seem to play a significant part for females we find the opposite

is there a case for carbon based border tax adjustment an applied general equilibrium analysis concern that unilateral greenhouse gas ghg emission reductions could foster carbon leakage and undermine the international competitiveness of domestic industry has led to growing calls for carbon based border tax adjustments btas this article uses a global general equilibrium model to assess the economic effects of btas and comes to three main conclusions first btas can reduce carbon leakage if the coalition of countries taking action to reduce ghg emissions is small because in this case leakage while typically small mainly occurs through international trade competitiveness losses rather than through declines in world fossil fuel prices second even though the economic effects of btas vary somewhat depending on how they are implemented their welfare impact is typically small and slightly negative at the world level third and perhaps more strikingly btas do not necessarily curb the output losses incurred by the domestic energy intensive industries eiis they are intended to protect in the

risk sharing between and within families this paper uses the panel study of income dynamics to test whether risk sharing is complete between or within american families the tests accommodate a wide variety in the configuration and availability of family data the test results reject inter as well as intra family full risk sharing even assuming that leisure is endogenous or that leisure and consumption are nonseparable

market power in emissions trading markets ruled by a multiple unit double auction further experimental evidence we discuss selected methodological problems of previous double auction da experiments and test the hypothesis that a multiple unit double auction muda is able to prevent market power in an emissions trading market additionally we analyze how the information subjects receive about the market structure and different levels of subjects experience influence the behavior based on a larger number of independent observations than analyzed in previous studies the experiment generates two main results first emissions trading markets ruled by a muda realize a high degree of efficiency even under market power conditions however a muda is in general not able to restrict market power we observe persistent price discrimination in two market power environments i e the distribution of profits is strongly shifted in favor of the strong market side without greatly harming efficiency this result is independent of the information to subjects about the market structure second when subjects are experienced the efficiency is higher and the ability of the strong market side to exercise market power declines strongly however the variability of behavior is large and the strong market side is still able to realize supracompetitive profits in some groups

on testing for full insurance using consumer expenditure survey data in a recent issue of this journal mace 1991 presented empirical evidence in support of the hypothesis that u s households engage in full risk sharing the data used were taken from the u s consumer expenditure survey cex for the years 1980 84 full insurance implies that household level consumption should be perfectly correlated with aggregate consumption but uncorrelated with householdlevel changes in income mace s surprising result was that at least for one functional specification household level income changes whether measured directly by changes in reported income or proxied by employment change dummies seemed to have no statistically significant effect on consumption this comment demonstrates that this result was due to measurement error in key variables

minimum wage effects on employment substitution and the teenage labor supply evidence from personnel data using personnel data from a large us retail firm i examine the firm s response to the 1996 federal minimum wage increase compulsory increases in average wages had negative but statistically insignificant effects on overall employment however increases in the relative wages of teenagers led to significant increases in the relative employment of teenagers especially younger and more affluent teenagers further analysis suggests a pattern consistent with noncompetitive models where the legislation affected mainly the wages of teenagers and so was only moderately binding it led both to higher teenage labor market participation and to higher absolute employment of teenagers

marginal abatement costs of co2 emission reductions geographical flexibility and concrete ceilings an assessment using the poles model abstract the kyoto protocol envisage the setting up of flexibility mechanisms allowing annex b countries to fulfil their commitments to reducing greenhouse gases with respect for the principle of economic efficiency the current negotiations relate in particular to the possibility of setting up a system of tradable emissions permits for annex b countries and also of introducing ceilings to trade this paper analyses the stakes and economic potential of adopting this instrument both for those countries that made commitments in kyoto and for developing countries it is based on a formal approach that allows for a consistent framework of analysis the emission permit market is in fact simulated on the basis of a reference scenario and of marginal abatement cost curves and estimated by the poles model after analysing these marginal abatement cost curves and comparing them with those produced by other models we explore two different configurations for a competitive market a market limited to the annex b countries and a world market the results produced by the model show that widening the market to include developing countries is more effective than the annex b market solution it reduces the cost of implementing kyoto for oecd countries and at the same time allows the countries of the south to benefit from selling the permits this research also shows that introducing restrictions on exchanges for annex b countries could have a counter productive redistribution effect with the ethical argument that underlies that particular measure

welfare consequences of emission credit trading programs abstract the welfare consequences of moving from a command and control approach to pollution control to an emission credit trading program that attains the same environmental quality are shown to depend on the competitiveness of the output markets in which polluting firms compete if the output markets are competitive then the introduction of trading increases aggregate welfare in contrast if the output markets in which these firms participate are not competitive then the adoption of an emission credit trading program may reduce social welfare this is so even if emission credit markets are perfectly competitive

employment with asymmetric information in an economy without informational and other distortions entrepreneurs and workers can write labor contracts that support a pareto optimal allocation of resources this paper is an attempt to characterize contracts when enterpreneurs are better informed about the state of nature than are their workers asymmetric information generally results in a suboptimal allocation of both risk and worker effort in particular if consumption and leisure are perfect substitutes employment will be less than fully pareto optimal in all but the most favorable states of nature

what can explain the apparent lack of international consumption risk sharing recent research in international business cycles finds that international consumption comovements do not match the risk sharing predictions of standard complete markets models in this paper i ask whether two different types of explanations can help explain this result 1 nonseparabilities between tradables and nontradable leisure or goods and 2 the effects of capital market restrictions on consumption risk sharing i find that risk sharing cannot be resolved by either explanation alone however when i allow for both nonseparabilities and certain market restrictions risk sharing among unrestricted countries cannot be rejected this evidence suggests that a combination of these two effects may be necessary to explain consumption risk sharing across countries

the real wage employment relationship in the united states this article examines the real wage employment relationship in the united states in the light of the diversity of results in the literature it demonstrates that when the relationship is correctly specified in the sense that due allowance is made for technical progress and capital accumulation and the appropriate value added deflator is used for the wage then a negative relationship may be observed in the data an incorrect specification however is as likely to lead to a positive relationship as a negative one

quantity constrained household responses to ui reform this paper explores the consequences of adopting a household perspective when evaluating proposals for the reform of the canadian unemployment insurance system a model of joint behavior that allows demand side constraints to limit labor supply choices is estimated quantity constraints faced by one spouse are thus important determinants of the other s behavior predicted household responses to unemployment insurance reform proposals are negligible and differ from those that would be obtained using a model of unconstrained individual behavior copyright 1990 by royal economic society

asset pricing puzzles and incomplete markets the representative agent theory of asset pricing is modified to incorporate heterogeneous agents and incomplete markets the model features two types of agents who differ up to a nontradable idiosyncratic component in their endowment processes numerical solutions indicate that individuals are able to diversify a substantial portion of their idiosyncratic income risk through riskless borrowing and lending alone restrictions on the variability of intertemporal marginal rates of substitution hansen and jagannathan 1991 are used to argue that incomplete markets as modeled here cannot account for the properties of asset returns that are anomalous from the perspective of representative agent theory a large literature in financial economics has investigated the extent to which variants of the lucas 1978 general equilibrium theory of asset pricing can account for the joint behavior of aggregate u s consumption and asset returns by and large this literature has concluded that a theory based upon frictionless arrow debreu markets and or a representative agent makes strongly counterfactual predictions regarding even the simple unconditional properties of this relationship mehra and prescott 1985 for instance show that the theory drastically underpredicts the average excess rate of return on u s stocks the so called equity premium puzzle weil 1989 points out as did mehra and prescott that the magnitude of the average risk free rate is far below that predicted by the theory this has been dubbed the risk free rate puzzle numerous authors including grossman melino and shiller 1987 and backus gregory and zin 1989 show that the theory cannot account for term premia inherent in the yield curve hodrick 1987 surveys a large literature which documents the theory s shortcomings in accounting for excess expected returns in foreign exchange markets the notion that the representative agent model cannot account for excess returns across a wide array of asset markets can be made more precise by using tools developed by hansen and jagannathan 1991 and shiller 1982

intertemporal substitution in labor supply evidence from micro data the sensitivity of the supply of labor to intertemporal variation in the wage is an important issue in macroeconomics the analysis of social security and pensions and the study of life cycle patterns of work this paper explores two approaches to the measurement of intertemporal substitution that have appeared in the literature the first approach is to use consumption to control for wealth and unobserved expectations about future wages in the labor supply equation the second approach is to estimate a first difference equation for hours in which labor supply from the previous period serves as a control for wealth and wage expectations the results indicate that intertemporal substitution elasticity for married men is positive but small

risk and insurance in village india comment the protection of poor households in high risk agrarian economies from shocks to their incomes has often been seen as a compelling motive for various forms of policy intervention including transfers of cash or food credit subsidies and public employment schemes for a survey see lipton and ravallion 1995 the desirability of such safety net policies clearly depends on how well pre existing risk sharing arrangements work while it is commonly thought that without effective policy intervention rural households are vulnerable to village wide shocks such as adverse prices or poor rains it is less clear to what extent risk sharing institutions within the village mitigate the effects of idiosyncratic income risk stemming for instance from ill health or localized crop damage 2 several recent papers have used household level data to implement tests of risk sharing that might inform such concerns 3 these tests are based on the proposition that with perfect risk sharing consumption at the household level should be insured against idiosyncratic risks and thus depend solely on the realization of the aggregate risk wilson 1968 diamond 1967 townsend 1994 tests this implication of perfect intra village risk sharing using longitudinal household data on consumptions and incomes for three villages in india he reports that the full insurance hypothesis provides a surprisingly good benchmark in that household consumptions co move and do not appear to be much influenced by contemporaneous own income our aim here is to examine the robustness of this potentially important finding we have two main concerns the first is that the specification townsend adopts potentially biases his test towards the null hypothesis of full insurance because it yields inconsistent estimates of the key test parameter under a plausible alternative we therefore estimate a different specification that generates consistent estimates under both the null and the alternative our second concern is that a particular form of measurement error in the consumption data townsend uses may have further biased his results toward the null hypothesis of full insurance to address this concern we use an instrumental variables procedure when we implement the test of consumption insurance with townsend s consumption data we also re estimate the test equations with a measure of consumption derived from the same underlying primary data by an alternate method finally townsend reports 1discussions with robert townsend stimulated our interest in this investigation the staff of the

anticipated and unanticipated wage changes wage risk and intertemporal labor supply in this article i estimate how labor supply responds to anticipated wage growth unanticipated wage growth and wage risk using the 1989 93 panel section of the bank of italy survey of households income and wealth shiw which collects individual expectations of future wages the use of subjective expectations has several advantages first they provide information on the evolution and riskiness of future wages that the econometrician may never hope to observe moreover this avoids the need for specifying instruments for the growth rate of wages finally forecast errors can be directly controlled for thus avoiding inconsistency in short panels

decreasing relative risk aversion risk sharing and the permanent income hypothesis this article develops a method for testing the risk sharing hypothesis rsh against various versions of the permanent income hypothesis pih while allowing for heterogeneity in risk preferences across households using 1 year and longer differences in household total nondurable consumption data from indian villages we find evidence that favors the rsh over the pih at the village level

optimal minimum wage legislation in this paper we present a model in which minimum wage legislation may be pareto optimal this arises because a higher wage would be preferred to the market clearing wage by demanders for and suppliers of labour even though unemployment is induced and minimum wage legislation is needed to support the preferred equilibrium consider a labour market where the quality of labour depends positively on the wage offered if labour quality is highly sensitive to wage increases effective unit labour cost will fall as the wage rises this would lead the representative firm to prefer paying an above market clearing wage and to ration job slots such an effect has been studied when quality depends on an individual firm s wage offer see for example weiss i980 or stiglitz i974 suppose however that labour quality depended not on any individual firm s wage offer but on the average market wage if firms were atomistic each invidual firm would have an incentive to undercut the optimal above marketclearing wage trying to get the quality benefits of high average wages while paying lower wages itself the high wage solution would not be viable legislation fixing minimum wages might be required to support the preferred equilibrium quality might depend on average market wages when workers must decide whether or not to enter a labour market before they can sample and obtain specific job offers migration into labour markets for example rural to urban migration in less developed countries provides one example as the decision to migrate and therefore the quality of the labour pool will depend on some average of expected wage offers the decision over which profession to enter at the beginning of the educational process provides another example of course imperfect information plays a key role here it is assumed that both firms and workers have imperfect information about the suitability of individual workers for jobs both before and to a lesser extent after employment has begun this lack of information will rule out both profitable selfselection mechanisms and wages strictly proportional to output so that firms will care about the quality of the labour pool the non optimality of market clearing prices which will be demonstrated makes this paper similar to a number of papers on the implications of adverse selection in labour and product markets one may mention two excellent papers on screening in labour markets by guasch and weiss i980 i98i this paper builds on some of the results in those papers stiglitz and weiss i98i show how credit rationing may arise from a similar type of argument wilson

exclusionary manipulation of markets for pollution rights abstract strategic price manipulation can affect the distribution of transferable pollution rights across polluters and the efficiency of pollution control efforts prior research has concentrated on market manipulation by firms seeking only to minimize the sum of pollution rights costs and pollution abatement costs in this paper we explore the potential for the exclusionary manipulation of pollution permit markets intended to drive up the costs of one s rivals and we distinguish between the resource allocation effects of exclusionary manipulation and cost minimizing manipulation we find that exclusionary manipulation can sometimes worsen and sometimes ameliorate the abatement inefficiency which occurs under cost minimizing manipulation and that an overbuying rule can obviate or at least limit damages from this form of strategic behavior

the sensitivity of consumption to transitory income estimates from panel data on households we investigate the stochastic relation between income and consumption specifically consumption of food within a panel of about 2 000 households our major findings are 1 consumption responds much more strongly to permanent than to transitory movements of income 2 the response to transitory income is nonetheless clearly positive 3 a simple test independent of our model of consumption rejects a central implication of the pure life cycle permanent income hypothesis the observed covariation of income and consumption is compatible with pure life cycle permanent income behavior on the part of80 percent of families and simple proportionality of consumption and income among the remaining 20 percent as a general matter our findings support the view that families respond differently to different sources of income variations in particular temporary income tax policies have smaller effects on consumption than do other more permanent changes in income of the same magnitude this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

intertemporal substitution in labor supply micro evidence from rural india abstract this paper tests the hypothesis of intertemporal substitution in labor supply using time allocation data on adult male and female members of agricultural households in india the robustness of the results with respect to functional form specification and credit constraints is examined the female intertemporal elasticity of substitution is found to be significant but low similar to estimates from the us elasticity estimates for males are negative or zero tests of symmetry and additive separability proved inconclusive as they are quite sensitive to functional form in addition the empirical analysis revealed significant differences in the elasticity of substitution of females depending on land ownership and whether the period of reference falls during planting and harvesting or after harvesting these differences suggest that credit constraints limit the possibilities of substitution of labor supply across time

testing for full insurance using exogenous information we strongly reject the full insurance hypothesis using testing variables that are not decision variables for the households under investigation we find that households are not insured against changes in the unemployment rate associated with the household head s occupational category using this exogenous information we also investigate the appropriateness of exogeneity assumptions on idiosyncratic variables that have been used as testing variables in the full insurance literature it is shown that several exogeneity assumptions made in the existing literature are potentially problematic

full insurance in the presence of aggregate uncertainty this paper tests implications of full consumption insurance the object is to determine how much mileage can be obtained from a model with complete markets with such features as private information or liquidity constraints omitted the implication exploited is that individual consumption responds to aggregate risk but not to idiosyncratic risk the test involves regressing the change in household consumption onto the change in aggregate consumption and other right hand side variables such as the change in household income and change in employment status all variables other than the change in aggregate consumption are predicted to be insignificant in explaining the change in household consumption with observations on consumption and income for 10 695 households from the consumer expenditure survey the results are mixed the results for one specification exponential utility are mostly consistent with full consumption insurance the results for the other specification power utility are not

theoretical foundations for sticky wages abstract the paper compares three different types of theoretical explanation of sticky wages they are implicit contracts efficiency wage models and insider outsider models it then reconsiders keynes rationale for sticky wages which focuses on relative wage issues finally the paper considers possible directions for future research

a microeconometric comparison of household behavior between countries this article reviews the methodological issues associated with estimating and testing competitive markets with panel data and applies it to an important new arena international economics we investigate differences in housing consumption and male labor supply across households in germany and the united states with data from the german socio economic panel and the panel study of income dynamics observations are treated as equilibrium outcomes generated by a set of competitive markets that accommodate varying degrees of integration after controlling for differences in the sample populations and aggregate shocks we find that the estimated structural parameters are surprisingly similar across these two countries

climate policy induced investments in developing countries the implications of investment risks international climate policy has assigned the leading role in emissions abatement to the industrialized countries while developing countries remain uncommitted to binding emission reduction targets however cooperation between the industrialized and the developing world through joint implementation of emission abatement promises substantial economic gains to both parties in this context the policy debate on joint implementation has addressed the question of how investment risks to project based emission crediting between industrialized countries and developing countries affect the magnitude and distribution of such gains in our quantitative analysis we find that the incorporation of country specific investment risks induces rather small changes vis a vis a situation where investment risks are neglected only if investors go for high safety of returns is there a distinct decline in the overall volume of emission crediting and the associated total economic benefits while the welfare effects of risk incorporation for industrialized countries are unequivocally negative the implications across developing countries are ambiguous whereas low risk developing countries attract higher project volumes and benefit from higher effective prices per emission credit compared to a reference scenario without risk the opposite applies to high risk countries sensitivity analysis with respect to higher risk estimates show that shifts in the comparative advantage of emission abatement against high risk countries may become dramatic as only very low cost mitigation projects will be realized driving down the country s benefits from emission crediting to the advantage of low risk developing countries this result is supported by empirical evidence on regional imbalances of activities implemented jointly under the pilot phase of the kyoto protocol

market power and transferable property rights the appeal of using markets as a means of allocating scarce resources stems in large part from the assumption that a market will approximate the competitive ideal when competition is not a foregone conclusion the question naturally arises as to how a firm might manipulate the market to its own advantage this paper analyzes the issue of market power in the context of markets for transferable property rights first a model is developed that explains how a single firm with market power might exercise its influence this is followed by an examination of the model in the context of a particular policy problem the control of particulate sulfates in the los angeles region

intertemporal emission trading with a dominant agent how does a restriction on borrowing affect efficiency in this paper we analyze how restricting intertemporal trading by prohibiting borrowing of emissions permits affects the ability of a dominant agent to exploit its market power we show that the monopolist could take advantage of the constraint on borrowing by not distributing the sale of permits cost effectively across periods furthermore we show that a constant present value price over time does not imply a cost effective distribution of abatement permit sales across periods

the sensitivity of labor supply parameter estimates to unobserved individual effects fixed and random effects estimates in a nonlinear model using panel data life cycle models of labor supply predict the presence of an unobserved individual effect in the labor supply equation that is correlated with observed explanatory variables leading to an omitted variables bias in the cross section i examine the sensitivity of parameter estimates to the presence of these effects using fixed and random effect tobit models the estimated effects of children are too large in the cross section the estimated intertemporal substitution elasticity ranges from 1 1 to 1 7 the results are similar for fixed and random effects models and for models using different specifications of the dependent variable

household choices in equilibrium this paper is an empirical investigation of equilibrium restrictions on household consumption and male labor supply it exploits a simple factor structure rationalized by two assumptions that household allocations are pareto optimal and that the labor market is competitive the paper estimates household preferences and tests how well this parsimonious factor structure represents panel data on married couples and time series data on asset returns most of the estimates are roughly comparable to those found in previous work no evidence against the simple factor representation is found and the intertemporal capital asset pricing model is not rejected copyright 1990 by the econometric society

a simple test of consumption insurance are consumers effectively insured against idiosyncratic shocks to income or wealth either by formal institutions such as charities private insurance and government programs or by informal mechanisms such as gifts and loans from relatives friends and neighbors under full insurance consumption growth should be cross sectionally independent of idiosyncratic variables that are exogenous to consumers this proposition is tested by cross sectional regressions of consumption growth on a variety of exogenous variables full insurance is rejected for long illness and involuntary job loss but not for spells of unemployment loss of work due to strike and an involuntary move

intertemporal substitution and constraints on labor supply evidence from panel data intertemporal substitution and constraints on labor supply evidence from panel data i introduction through much of the 1970s and 1980s macroeconomic stabilization analysis has been dominated by equilibrium models in which fluctuations in employment result from intertemporal substitution workers voluntarily vary their labor supply over time in response to movements in wages and interest rates a number of recent empirical tests of intertemporal substitution models for example altonji 1982 mankiw et al 1985 ham 1986 strongly reject the intertemporal substitution approach these results have led some economists to reject equilibrium macro models in favor of keynesian models in which workers face quantity constraints on labor supply in keynesian models employment fluctuations result from changes in the severity of constraints that is changes in involuntary unemployment rather than intertemporal substitution on the other hand many economists remain unconvinced by recent rejections of intertemporal substitution models because the results are consistent with many possible explanations for tractability empirical studies always impose restrictive assumptions such as separability of utility over time and between goods or such as the existence of a representative consumer data also suffer from numerous problems such as aggregation bias measurement error and the use of average rather than marginal wage rates consequently even the authors of the studies seem hesitant to draw firm conclusions they often simply conclude that workers behavior is explained either by quantity constraints or by a more complicated intertemporal substitution model than the one they have tested 1 this paper attempts to determine which of these explanations is correct are changes in employment a sophisticated form of intertemporal substitution or are they involuntary the crucial data come from questions in the panel study of income dynamics about whether workers experience unemployment or are unable to work as many hours as they want following ham 1982 1986 this information is used to classify workers as quantity constrained in their labor supply or unconstrained i then test a simple intertemporal substitution model for each group of workers if the tests suffer from overly restrictive utility functions or data problems then the model should be rejected for both samples on the other hand if some workers truly face quantity constraints then the model should perform better for the sample of unconstrained workers 2 the tests yield two main results first the model indeed performs worse for the constrained workers for this group the data reject the model s overidentifying restrictions and the parameter estimates contradict the model in contrast the results for the unconstrained workers are weakly consistent with the model as keynesian theories suggest quantity constraints alter workers behavior second the estimates of the intertemporal labor supply elasticity for prime age men are close to zero even for unconstrained workers even if workers are free to vary their hours they apparently choose to respond little to movements in wages the paper addresses two other issues first do constraints on borrowing influence labor supply in the intertemporal substitution model workers borrow and lend to smooth consumption while varying hours of work as this suggests the model performs best for workers who not only face no labor supply constraints but who also own substantial assets and thus are unlikely to face liquidity constraints finally the paper proposes a new approach to identifying intertemporal labor supply equations previous micro studies do not adequately address the problem that wages are correlated with unobservable characteristics that affect tastes for work i propose two identifying restrictions 1 changes in tastes are uncorrelated with levels of time in variant variables and 2 changes in tastes have no aggregate component

testing restrictions in a flexible dynamic demand system an application to consumers expenditure in canada traditionally restrictions on systems of demand equations have been tested using static models whilst being estimated with time series data this paper develops a vector time series model of expenditure shares in the context of a singular dynamic demand system the model allows for non symmetric and non homogeneous short run behaviour the homogeneity and symmetry restrictions are only examined in the long run structure results based on canadian time series data are presented and reject the current practise of static modelling while restrictions suggested by economic theory are not rejected when imposed on the long run structure

labor supply preferences hours constraints and hours wage tradeoffs in a labor market with tied hours wage packages and wage dispersion for a particular type of job constrained workers may be willing to sacrifice wage gains for better hours when changing jobs likewise workers may accept jobs offering undesirable hours only if the associated wage gains are large we investigate this issue empirically by examining whether overemployment and underemployment on the initial and new job affects the relation between hours changes and wage changes for quitters our results generally support the view that an individual requires compensation to work in a job that given the individual s particular preferences offers unattractive hours

tradeable emission permits regulations in the presence of imperfectly competitive product markets welfare implications in the present paper we analyse the interaction of a competitive market for emission permits with an oligopolistic product market it is well known that a competitive permits market achieves the cost minimizing distribution of abatement effort among the polluting firms for a given reduction in emissions however when the product market is oligopolistic it may redistribute production inefficiently among firms it has been suggested that this inefficiency can outweigh the gains obtained from using emission permits instead of command and control although this argument is clearly correct under full information it is shown in the present paper that it reverses under incomplete information in particular it is shown that when tradeable emission permits are specified according to the standard textbook example they yield higher social welfare than the command and control regulation

migration selectivity and the effects of public programs abstract a model of the spatial distribution of mobile heterogeneous agents is formulated to assess how a price change or program subsidy that is location specific affects the composition of local residents via selective migration and thus biases evaluations of the effectiveness of the program based on its local consequences longitudinal data from colombia are used to test the implications of migration selectivity the findings confirm the existence of selective migration suggesting that local subsidies to human capital attract high income but within income groups low fertility households and those with low human capital endowments these migration patterns are shown to be consistent with the dominance of endowment over tastes heterogeneity in the population under plausible behavioral assumptions

beyond kyoto backstop technologies and endogenous prices on co2 permits and fossil fuels this paper analyses the markets for fossil fuels given that the limits the kyoto protocol sets on co2 emissions from annex b countries extend beyond 2008 2012 a forward looking model with endogenous prices for fossil fuels is applied under different assumptions concerning the technological progress for a carbon free backstop technology both the time profile of the international permit price needed for the kyoto forever targets as well as the implications through reduced demand and lower producer prices for fossil fuels are calculated the permit price has to rise at least up to 2030 in order to fulfil the emission targets from then on the necessary permit price shows different future developments dependent on when the backstop technology starts to replace oil since changes in the availability of the backstop technology shift the time profile of the permit price the loss of petroleum wealth for oil and gas producers varies between the scenarios but is never more than 20 findings indicate that the

testing whether unemployment represents intertemporal labour supply behaviour in the lucas rapping 1969 model of the labour market fluctuations in unemployment represent individuals optimally adjusting their labour supply behaviour in response to fluctuations in wage rates over the business cycle in this paper i propose and implement a misspecification test of the lucas rapping treatment of unemployment as labour supply behaviour using panel data this test extends previous such work with micro data by simultaneously allowing for intertemporal substitution uncertainty and endogenous unemployment using the standard specification of intertemporal labour supply behaviour i find strong evidence against this interpretation of unemployment there are two possible interpretations of the test results the first is that it is necessary to turn to alternative models of the labour market in which unemployed workers are off a supply function the second is that the test results indicate the necessity of moving to more complex models of intertemporal substitution however given current econometric techniques and data sets these alternative models of intertemporal substitution will be extremely difficult to test

the role of food stamps in consumption stabilization although the food stamp program is the largest universal entitlement program in the social safety net little is known about its stabilizing role in household income and consumption using data from the panel study of income dynamics spanning 1980 99 we estimate the volatility of income with and without food stamps coupled with a variance decomposition of consumption among families at high ex ante risk of food stamp participation food stamps reduced income volatility by about 12 percent and food consumption volatility by about 14 percent there was however a marked decline in consumption smoothing benefits of the program in the early 1990s relative to the 1980s

strategic promotion and compensation within a hierarchical firm structure this paper details how the composition of a worker s skills and the non observability of a worker s ability affect wage and promotion paths promotionbased compensation schemes derive naturally from the worker s asymmetrically observed ability promotion takes place over time and is inefficient since employers strategically exploit their knowledge of an able worker s ability conversely employers may be unable to efficiently demote and retain bad managers without paying bonuses employers are led to promote educated employees before their equally or more able but uneducated counterparts explanations for fast track promotions plans and other empirical regularities are provided

a panel data heterogeneous bayesian estimation of environmental kuznets curves for co2 emissions this article investigates the environmental kuznets curves ekc for co2 emissions in a panel of 109 countries during the period 1959 to 2001 the length of the series makes the application of a heterogeneous estimator suitable from an econometric point of view the results based on the hierarchical bayes estimator show that different ekc dynamics are associated with the different sub samples of countries considered on average more industrialized countries show evidence of ekc in quadratic specifications which nevertheless are probably evolving into an n shape based on their cubic specification nevertheless it is worth noting that the eu and not the umbrella group led by us has been driving currently observed ekc like shapes the latter is associated to monotonic income co2 dynamics the eu shows a clear ekc shape evidence for less developed countries consistently shows that co2 emissions rise positively with income though there are some signs of an ekc analyses of future performance neverthe

estimation of a labour supply model with censoring due to unemployment and underemployment this study proposes and implements a method of labour supply estimation which is appropriate when the sample contains unemployed and underemployed workers the estimation method consists of excluding unemployed and underemployed workers from the sample and then using to avoid selection bias an extension of heckman s approach to the case where two correlated selection rules generate the sample hausman s specification test is then used to determine whether ignoring constrained workers has led to biases in traditional labour supply estimates and the empirical results suggest that previous estimates of several important parameters are biased since the biases go in the direction that would be predicted by the hypothesis that the unemployed and underemployed are constrained the results support this hypothesis

time series representations of economic variables and alternative models of the labour market accepting the hypothesis that the time series facts of the aggregate labour market may be summarized by the linear autoregressive and moving average representations of wages prices unemployment and interest rates implies that a useful theory ought to lead to predictions about these representations following this approach this paper first catalogues many of the time series facts about the aggregate labour market and then compares them against alternative models of the labour market based on the intertemporal substitution and staggered contract hypotheses