a review of the recent empirical literature on displaced workers this article reviews the empirical literature on job displacement job displacement is widespread and strongly countercyclical tending to peak during economic downturns but concentrated in indus

does employment protection create its own political support this paper investigates the ability of employment protection to generate its own political support a version of the mortensen pissarides model is used for this purpose if wages are set through nash bargaining workers value employment protection because it strengthens their hand in wage negotiations workers in high productivity matches benefit most from higher wages as they expect to stay employed for longer by reducing turnover employment protection shifts the distribution of match specific productivity toward lower values thus stringent protection in the past actually reduces support for employment protection today introducing involuntary separations reverses this conclusion now workers value employment protection because it delays involuntary dismissals workers in low productivity matches gain most since they face the highest risk of dismissal the downward shift in the productivity distribution is now a shift towards supporters

what happens to wages after displacement faced with limited resources policymakers need to know when and where to target support for displaced workers the academic literature offers little support presenting wide ranging results with no consistent explanation for the observed differences in wages after workers are displaced in this paper we demonstrate that the heterogeneity found in the literature is consistent with varying market conditions the results suggest that support for displaced workers can be more efficiently allocated by considering the timing and location of displacement

decreasing risk aversion and mean variance analysis on formule un ensemble de postulats d aversion pour le risque absolu decroissant et on montre que seules les fonctionnelles d utilite moyenne variance peuvent les satisfaire

higher order generalizations of arrow pratt and ross risk aversion a comparative statics approach abstract we analyze comparative risk aversion in a new way through a comparative statics problem in which for a cost agents can shift from an initial probability distribution toward a preferred distribution the ross characterization arises when the original distribution is riskier than the preferred distribution and the cost is monetary and the arrow pratt characterization arises when the original distribution differs from the preferred distribution by a simple mean preserving spread and the cost is a utility cost higher order increases in risk lead to higher order generalizations and the comparative statics method yields a unified approach to the problem of comparative risk attitudes

lasting or latent scars swedish evidence on the long term effects of job displacement recently improved swedish register data have made it possible to remedy many weaknesses of previous research on displaced workers using linked employer employee data we identify all workers displaced in 1987 due to an establishment closure and follow them over both a predisplacement period of 4 years and a postdisplacement period stretching until 1999 we find that the displaced workers suffer both earnings losses and worsened labor market position not only during a transitory period of adjustment but also in the longer run these longer run effects seem to be driven by an increased sensitivity to subsequent macroeconomic shocks

earnings losses and unemployment of displaced workers in germany data from the german socio economic panel are used to examine the experiences of german workers following job displacement due to plant closure in the year of displacement annual earnings decline

optimal retirement with increasing longevity we develop an optimizing life cycle model of retirement with perfect capital markets we show that longer healthy life expectancy usually leads to later retirement but with an elasticity less than unity we calibrate our model using data from the us and find that over the last century the effect of rising incomes which promote early retirement has dominated the effect of rising lifespans our model predicts continuing declines in the optimal retirement age despite rising life expectancy provided the rate of real wage growth remains as high as in the last century

measuring the effect of subsidized training programs on movements in and out of employment despite over two decades of u s experience in operating large scale subsidized training programs for low income and unemployed workers the effects of these programs are still highly controversial the controversy arises from the difficulty of specifying the model of participant outcomes in the absence of training that is necessary in any nonexperimental program evaluation in this paper we suggest that some of these difficulties may be overcome by focusing on a very simple measure of outcomes namely the probability of employment we present a variety of estimates of the effect of training on the probability of employment for the 1976 cohort of adult male participants in the comprehensive employment and training act ceta program our methods range from a simple comparison of pre and post training employment probabilities between trainees and nonparticipants to a fully specified first order markov model of employment probabilities with individual heterogeneity there is consistent evidence across methods that ceta participation increased the probability of employment in the three years after training by from 2 to 5 percentage points classroom training programs appear to have had significantly larger effects than on the job programs although the estimated effects of both kinds of programs are positive we also find that movements in and out of employment for trainees and nonparticipants are reasonably well described by a first order process conditional on individual heterogeneity in the context of this model ceta participation appears to have increased both the probability of moving into employment and the probability of continuing employment

job displacement and the transitions to re employment and early retirement for non employed older workers abstract despite the relatively higher frequency of job displacement among older workers in europe little is known about its effect on the work retirement decision employing individual data from the european community household panel for a number of countries with differences in their institutional environments the effect of job displacement for non employed workers is identified separately for the transitions into re employment and retirement the findings suggest that in countries with relatively more generous unemployment insurance provisions for the older unemployed which offer a pathway to early retirement older displaced workers exhibit lower re employment and higher retirement rates compared to the non displaced these results are robust to dynamic selection due to unobserved heterogeneity and to the endogeneity of displacement

do wages rise with job seniority a reassessment the authors provide new estimates of the return to job seniority using a dataset similar to that employed in joseph altonji and robert shakotko do wages rise with job seniority review of economic studies 1987 and robert topel specific capital mobility and wages journal of political economy 1991 they consider the strengths and weaknesses of these studies treatment of economy wide trends their dating conventions for tenure and wages their handling of wage observations that might span multiple jobs and their estimation approaches re estimation points to an effect often years of tenure on the log wage equal to 11 which is above the preferred estimate of altonji and shakotko but far below that of topel changes in earnings distributions and in the employment relationship motivate the examination of more recent data perhaps surprisingly the return to tenure has probably increased over time

the gender gap in early career wage growth in the uk the gender pay gap on entry to the labour market is approximately zero but ten years after labour market entry there is a gender wage gap of almost 25 log points this article explores the reason for this gender gap in early career wage growth considering three main hypotheses human capital job shopping and psychological theories human capital factors can explain about 11 log points job shopping about 1 5 log points and the psychological theories up to 4 5 log points depending on the specification but a substantial unexplained gap remains women who have continuous full time employment have had no children and express no desire to have them earn about 8 log points less than equivalent men after 10 years in the labour market

the effect of social security on retirement in the early 1970s we analyze detailed longitudinal data on a cohort of males aged 58 67 in 1969 1973 a period of substantial increases in real social security benefits we find the following 1 the accelerating decline in labor force participation of elderly men in 1969 1973 can be explained by the large increase in real social security benefits 2 there is evidence of a liquidity constraint effect for an important subgroup of the elderly 3 the magnitude of this induced retirement effect is large enough that ignoring it can lead to serious underestimation of the fiscal implications of changes in benefit provisions our results are interpreted in the historical context of a particular cohort undergoing major unanticipated transfers of wealth the steady state effects of social security on retirement may not be the same

the ross characterization of risk aversion strengthening and extension this paper offers an interpretive comparison of the arrow pratt and ross characterizations of comparative risk aversion for expected utility maximizers the tools used in this comparison are then applied to obtain a strengthening of the ross cha racterization this strengthened result is in turn extended to the ca se of general smooth nonexpected utility preferences over probabili ty distributions copyright 1987 by the econometric society

causes and consequences of layoffs using probit analysis this article finds that differential treatment accounts for a substantial portion of the higher layoff rates of blacks in comparison to whites however women are found to be considerably less prone to layoffs than men with similar characteristics among those who obtained subsequent employment taking into account the possible selectivity bias in such a subsample white males are hurt more by layoffs than black males in terms of both short term and long term earnings growth women s earnings are not necessarily affected by layoff at all however whites and males are found to be more likely to be reemployed than blacks and females respectively

the distribution of economic losses among displaced workers a replication this paper estimates the impact of unemployment on earnings following re employment for a large and representative sample of british men 1984 94 unemployment incidence is found to have only a temporary effect an average earnings setback of 10 on

economic conditions and alcohol problems this study investigates the relationship between macroeconomic conditions and two alcohol related outcomes liquor consumption and highway vehicle fatalities fixed effect models are estimated for the 48 contiguous states over the 1975 1988 time period alcohol consumption and traffic deaths vary procyclically with a major portion of the effect of economic downturns attributed to reductions in incomes rather than employment the intake of hard liquor is the most sensitive to the state of the macroeconomy there is no evidence however that fluctuations in economic conditions have a disproportionate impact on the drunk driving of young adults

comparative statics and non expected utility preferences abstract researchers have shown that many though not all of the basic results of expected utility analysis can be more or less directly generalized to non expected utility preferences this paper describes the essential difference between results which can be extended in this manner and those which cannot and shows that an important family of comparative statics theorems falls into the former class

the welfare costs of worker displacement abstract recent work has documented the large persistent earnings losses associated with the displacement of high tenure workers in this paper we assess the welfare costs of this risk assuming that workers do not have access to insurance markets we find that the cost is substantial on the same order of magnitude as the cost associated with unemployment risk we also argue that long duration unemployment insurance is likely to exacerbate this cost and that government financed severance payments are a far more effective way of dealing with the displacement risk

a structural model of us aggregate job flows this paper contributes to the analysis of jobs flows dynamics through the explicit modelling of job creations and job destructions we propose a simple matching model extended for endogenous separation and tractable heterogeneity the parameters of the model are estimated using a simulation based estimation method we then test the ability of trade externalities generated by the matching process to i propagate reallocation and aggregate disturbances in the whole labor market and ii generate the observed distribution of aggregate job flows the results clearly indicate that the model is able to match the dynamics of us aggregate job flows copyright 2002 john wiley sons ltd

the economic consequences of labor mobility unlike most previous research on the relative changes in earnings of job stayers and job changers this study examines the variance in earnings changes rather than simply average changes men and women rather than only men and the five year period following job change rather than only the first year or two the author finds great variability in earnings changes both within and across race and gender groups notably men gained more from quits and except in the case of low wage workers lost less from layoffs than women also men suffered a much smaller penalty than women for repeated job changes for all groups the percentage difference between earnings before and after leaving a job generally persisted for several years

how longer work lives ease the crunch of population aging population aging is not a looming crisis of the future it is already here populations age when life expectancy rises and fertility declines economic challenges arise when the increase in people surviving to old age and the decline in the number of young people alive to support them cause the growth in society s consumption needs to outpace growth in its productive capacity the ultimate impact of population aging on our standard of living in the future depends a great deal on how long people choose to work before they retire from the labor force here there is reason for optimism the end of the twentieth century witnessed a profound change in retirement behavior for over a century the labor force participation rate of men over age 65 declined falling steadily from 75 percent in the late 1800s to just 16 percent in 1990 moen 1994 costa 1998 at the end of the twentieth century however the labor force participation rate of older men began to rise quinn 2002 the labor force participation rate of older women rose as well following a remarkable increase in labor force participation among younger women over many decades a constellation of forces some just now gaining momentum has raised labor force participation at older ages at just the time it is needed age related health declines and the reluctance of employers to hire and retain older workers present challenges but the outlook for future gains in labor force participation at older ages is promising the labor market is accommodating older workers to some degree and older men and women are themselves adapting on a number of fronts which could substantially lessen the economic impact of population aging the paper begins by documenting the striking shift in the population age distribution well under way the slowdown in labor force growth and the corresponding rise in the economic dependency ratio which can be viewed as a measure of society s consumption needs relative to its productive capacity we document the historic turnaround in labor force participation and show how future increases in participation could significantly dampen the rise in the economic dependency ratio in the second section we turn to the most important factors behind the increase in labor force participation realized to date the shift in the skill composition of the workforce and technological change in the third section we argue that forces such as changes in the structure of employer provided pensions and social security are likely to propel future increases in labor force participation at older ages the fourth section illustrates the diversity of adaptations already at play in the labor market as older men and women seek to extend their working lives finally we discuss the relatively less dramatic population aging in the united states compared to other high income countries and how the united states is better poised than many countries to attain further gains in labor force participation at older ages

earnings losses of displaced workers revisited recent literature reviews conclude that job displacement results in sustained earnings losses bruce c fallick 1996 lori g kletzer 1998 and that estimates of the size of those reductions vary with the type of data used in the analysis the industry within which displacement occurs and business cycle conditions the largest estimated losses were obtained using administrative data from pennsylvania during the 1970s and 1980s louis s jacobson robert j lalonde and daniel g sullivan 1993a the data covered a period of high unemployment in a heavily indus trialized state characterized by disproportionate job losses in manufacturing thus the ability to generalize those results to more favorable economic times and states with a greater reliance on service sector employment has been questioned to address these issues administrative data are used to similarly examine the impact of job displacement on earnings losses of workers in connecticut from 1993 to 2004 the work of jacobson lalonde and sullivan jls also provided important methodologi cal advancement by adapting analytical techniques developed for program evaluation james j heckman and v joseph hotz 1989 to the context of job displacement the same techniques fixed effects and time trend estimators as those used in the original jls publication are initially employed here then the methods are extended to include matching estimators developed since their publication both nearest neighbor estimators of average treatment on the treated att and differenced average treatment on the treated datt are adapted to the context of this study heckman hidehiko ichimura and petra todd 1997 heckman et al 1998 and rajeev h dehejia and sadek wahba 1999 2002 the results presented here for connecticut differ in some ways from those found in the work of jls using data from pennsylvania in the period immediately following job loss regardless of the technique employed earnings reductions for workers displaced through mass layoff range from 32 percent to 33 percent jls reported immediate losses of more than 40 percent six years later using the same estimators as jls earnings reductions in connecticut range from 13 percent to 15 percent they report sustained losses in pennsylvania of 25 percent the smaller long term impacts in connecticut demonstrate that under more ordinary economic times esti mated losses from administrative data lie within the range observed using other data sources this finding resolves a long standing conflict among the results of high quality studies that have used differing data sources to study earnings reductions following job loss 1 using two different matching estimators earnings losses six years after mass layoff are 12 percent the matching estimators compare those who experienced mass layoff to compari sons with the same ex ante probability of the event these smaller losses are consistent with the

the impact of an early career recession on schooling and lifetime welfare this paper evaluates the lifetime welfare and labor market consequences of experiencing a recession during youth using a directed search equilibrium model with heterogeneous agents and aggregate shocks in particular the model allows for endogenous schooling decisions over the business cycles the counterfactual analysis shows that experiencing the 1981 1982 recession in youth causes a 1 6 to 2 3 loss in lifetime welfare endogenizing the schooling decision avoids overestimation of welfare loss because of the selection effect and the human capital effect i also decompose lifetime wage changes into different channels changes from schooling work experience and job mobility this article is protected by copyright all rights reserved

job displacement s long run effect on access to employer provided health insurance and other fringe benefits abstract this paper investigates the effect of job displacement on access to employer provided fringe benefits we find that displacement is associated with lost access to all seven employer provided benefits investigated these losses increase the cost of displacement by 10 per year

wage growth due to human capital accumulation and job search a comparison between the united states and germany this paper compares the sources of wage growth of young male workers in two countries with very different labor market institutions the united states and germany the author first develops a simple method for decomposing wage growth into components due to general human capital accumulation firm specific human capital accumulation and job search the empirical analysis uses data from administrative records germany and the national longitudinal survey of youth united states for cohorts entering the labor market in the late 1970s and early 1980s although the two countries differed substantially in mobility rates they were similar in the sources of wage growth with general human capital accumulation being the most important single source and job search accounting for an additional 25 or more of total wage growth there is no evidence that returns to firm specific human capital accumulation were higher for german apprentices than for u s high school dropouts or graduates

alternative approaches to comparative nth degree risk aversion this paper extends the three main approaches to comparative risk aversion the risk premium approach and the probability premium approach of pratt 1964 risk aversion in the small and in the large

a dynamic analysis of educational attainment occupational choices and job search this article examines career choices using a dynamic structural model that nests a job search model within a human capital model of occupational and educational choices wage growth occurs in the model because workers move between firms and occupations as they search for suitable job matches and because workers endogenously accumulate firm and occupation specific human capital simulations performed using the estimated model reveal that both self selection in occupational choices and mobility between firms account for a much larger share of total earnings and utility than the combined effects of firm and occupation specific human capital

state dependence individual heterogeneity and the choice of employment status evidence from korea abstractfocusing on the individual heterogeneity this article examines the causes of an individual s employment status choice and the extent of state dependence in the korean labour market we estimate a dynamic multinomial logit model using the panel data drawn from the first to fifteenth wave of the korean labour and income panel study the results suggest the presence of state dependence individual characteristics and growth background have a significant effect on the choice of employment status gender is still an important employment factor males are more likely to be employed and this gender effect is highest for regular employment re one s educational attainment and age operate in opposite directions that is educational attainment age has a positive negative impact on the choice of a regular job and a negative positive impact on the choice of a non regular job contrary to our expectations a wealthy family background reduces the probability of individuals being wage workers and rais

the effect of social security on labor supply a cohort analysis of the notch generation this article uses aggregate birth year calendar year level data derived from the current population survey cps to estimate the effect of social security wealth on the labor supply of older men in the 1970s and 1980s the analysis focuses on measuring the impact of the 1977 amendments to the social security act which created a substantial unanticipated reduction in social security wealth for individuals born after 1916 this differential in benefits has become known as the benefit notch results indicate that labor supply continued to decline for the notch babies who received lower social security benefits than earlier cohorts

evidence of preseparation earnings losses in the displaced worker survey this paper attempts to quantify preseparation earnings losses of workers displaced in mass layoffs using the displaced worker survey the largest and most representative sample of displaced workers using the 1986 displaced worker survey and random samples of the 1984 and 1985 current population survey as a comparison group it is found that workers lose on average 9 percent of their earnings prior to separation as a result of wage cuts this result is very similar to the preseparation losses found in other studies using different data sources one implication of this finding is that those studies that only take into consideration the post displacement losses of workers displaced in mass layoffs clearly underestimate the total costs suffered by these workers

involuntary layoffs in a model with asymmetric information concerning worker ability this paper examines the contract between a risk neutral firm and its risk averse employees assuming that worker ability is privately learned by the firm after a period of employment employers in an external spot labour market attempt to infer worker quality from the observable actions taken by the firm such as the number of workers it lays off the threat of spot market raids distorts the optimal contract layoffs may be involuntary and can exceed efficient levels a seniority layoff rule may be included in the contract to avoid the adverse selection problems that arise if layoffs are conducted on the basis of ability

the health and earnings of rejected disability insurance applicants applicants for social security disability benefits who fail to pass the medical screening form a natural control group for beneficiaries data drawn from the 1972 and 1978 surveys of the disabled done for the social security administration show that fewer than 50 percent of rejected male applicants work typical earnings of those that do are less than 59 percent of median earnings for other men their age these data cast doubt on recent econometric work that suggests that the disincentive effects of the social security disability program have been substantial copyright 1989 by american economic association

optimal unemployment insurance with human capital depreciation and duration dependence this paper studies the effect of human capital depreciation and duration dependence on the design of an optimal unemployment insurance ui scheme our results partially confirm those obtained in most previous studies benefits should decrease with unemployment duration the optimal program also generates two main novel features which are not present in stationary models first if human capital depreciates rapidly enough during unemployment ui transfers are bounded below by a minimal assistance level that arises endogenously in the efficient program second we study the optimality of imposing a history contingent wage tax after reemployment our numerical simulations based on the spanish and us economies show that the wage tax should decrease with the length of worker s previous unemployment spell and become a wage subsidy for long term unemployed workers as a by product of our study we develop a systematic approach suitable for studying recursively a wide range of dynamic moral hazard problems and other models with similar characteristics

female labour supply and household employment shocks maternity leave as an insurance mechanism this paper investigates the role of unpaid maternity leave in providing household insurance against paternal employment shocks the main outcome is the timing of a mothers return to work after having a child exploiting the us family and medical leave act we find that mothers eligible for maternity leave speed up their return to work in response to a paternal shock with the conditional probability of being in work 49 higher than in households with no unpaid maternity leave further evidence is provided on the insurance role of unpaid maternity leave through i no significant interaction between paid maternity leave and the paternal shock and ii smoothing of consumption effects of the shock for households covered by unpaid leave

french unemployment a transatlantic perspective french unemployment why france and the usa are alike the paper compares the french and us labour markets it shows that differences in unemployment rates are especially acute for young and old workers but appear to be negligible for middle aged workers all french workers however experience job flows that are quite distinct from their american counterparts as they are exposed to long spells of infrequent unemployment which is the opposite to the us case critical differences across ages and skills regarding the patterns of exit from and entry into employment are also displayed the paper dispels the view that these differences originate from the behaviour of the unemployed or the set of institutions that guide their decisions and that this is new to the french labour market daniel cohen arnaud lefranc and gilles saint paul

an empirical model of sectoral movements by unemployed workers using canadian data i investigate the relationships among sectoral mobility unemployment spells and total unemployment recent north american evidence suggests that incidence shifts toward high wage high tenure workers may increase equilibrium unemployment through decreasing sectoral mobility and increasing spells using a multiple spell transition model i find that while shifts toward such workers may have these effects composition changes that lead to higher mobility can also increase unemployment a further investigation into the relative roles of mobility and spell lengths in driving total unemployment indicates that the influence of the former is comparatively small

interpreting panel data on job tenure tenure responses in the panel study of income dynamics psid and the national longitudinal surveys are often inconsistent with calendar time these inconsistencies pose special problems in the psid because job changes cannot be identified directly so researchers must infer them from error ridden tenure data we use alternative rules for partitioning psid data into jobs and then estimate several wage and mobility models to assess the sensitivity of parameter estimates to the partitioning method we also assess the importance of replacing raw tenure data with imputed measures that are internally consistent

declining labor turnover and turbulence abstract the rate of job loss has been on a secular decline for the last four decades or longer changes in demographics or industry composition do not account for the trend this paper seeks to identify the possible sources of the decline using a simple search and matching model with two types of workers experienced and inexperienced where the former type faces a risk of skill loss during unemployment the calibrated model suggests that a higher risk of skill loss during unemployment results in a lower job separation rate because workers accept lower wages in exchange for job security various other potential hypotheses are also examined

the budget contraction effect how contracting budgets lead to less varied choice how do consumers adjust their spending when their budget changes a common view is that the allocation of one s current budget should not depend on previous budget allocations contrary to this the authors find that when the budget contracts to a particular level consumers select less variety as measured by the number of different items with some of the budget allocated to them than when their budget expands to that same level this budget contraction effect stems from a reduction in variety under the contracting budget not from variety expansion under the expanding budget evidence from five experiments indicates that the effect is driven by a desire to avoid feelings of loss associated with spreading allocation cuts relative to reference quantities from previous allocations across many items

the monetary utility premium and interpersonal comparisons the utility premium is generally defined as the pain or reduction in expected utility caused by an nth degree risk increase where n 2 while it is a very useful concept in understanding a decision maker s choice in uncertain situations the utility premium is not interpersonally comparable this note shows that the monetary utility premium the utility premium divided by the expected marginal utility at the random starting wealth is interpersonally comparable and the comparison is characterized by ross more risk aversion of the corresponding degree

worker displacement and the added worker effect this article examines the added worker effect which is the labor supply response of wives to their husbands job losses unlike past studies which focused on the husbands current unemployment status this article analyzes wives responses before and after job losses to examine the life cycle labor supply adjustments using panel study of income dynamics data reveals small predisplacement effects and large persistent postdisplacement effects the timing of the responses differs with type of displacement possibly because of differences in the information acquired before job loss long run labor supply increases compensate for over 25 of the husbands lost income

are children really inferior goods evidence from displacement driven income shocks abstract this paper explores the causal link between income and fertility by analyzing women s fertility response to the large and permanent income shock generated by a husband s job displacement i find that the shock reduces total fertility suggesting that the causal effect of income on fertility is positive a model that incorporates the time cost of children and assortative matching of spouses can simultaneously explain this result and the negative cross sectional relationship i also find that a husband s displacement accelerates childbearing which is consistent with lifecycle models of fertility in which the incentive to delay is driven by expected earnings growth

health and portfolio choices a diffidence approach the effect of health status on portfolio decisions has been extensively studied from an empirical viewpoint in this paper we propose a theoretical model of individuals choice of financial assets under bivariate utility functions depending on wealth and health our approach makes an extensive use of the diffidence theorem we establish the conditions under which the share of wealth held in risky assets falls as 1 individuals health status deteriorates and 2 individuals health status becomes risky these conditions are shown to be related to the behavior of the intensities of correlation aversion and of cross prudence as wealth increases

risk aversion in the theory of expected utility with rank dependent probabilities expected utility with rank dependent probability theory is a model of decision making under risk where the preference relations on the set of probability distributions is represented by the mathematical expectation of a utility function with respect to a transformation of the probability distributions on the set of outcomes this paper defines based on g teaux differentiability measures of risk aversion for such preferences which characterize the relation more risk averse and applies these measures to the analysis of unconditional and conditional portfolio choice problems

substituting one risk increase for another a method for measuring risk aversion abstract this paper defines the rate of substitution of one stochastic change to a random variable for another it then focuses on the case where one of these changes is an nth degree risk increase and the other is an mth degree risk increase where n m 1 the paper shows that the rate of substitution for these two risk increases can be used to provide a broader definition and two additional characterizations of the nth degree ross more risk averse partial order the implications for local intensity measures of nth degree risk aversion are also examined the analysis organizes the existing results as well as generates new ones

employment risk and job seeker performance using detailed labor recruitment data in combination with randomized variation in individuals outside job opportunities i show that providing job certainty during recruitment leads to substantial job seeker performance gains job seeker performance is highest and effort lowest among those assigned to receive a guaranteed outside job offer where employment risk is eliminated while performance is lowest and effort highest among those receiving no chance of an outside job offer performance among those assigned uncertain outside job offers consistently lies between the two extremes i conjecture that the pattern of results is most consistent with stress induced performance reductions attributable to job uncertainty i rule out several other competing theories

the cost of job loss this article identifies an equilibrium theory of wage formation and endogenous quit turnover in a labour market with on the job search where risk averse workers accumulate human capital through learning by doing and lose skills while unemployed optimal contracting implies the wage paid increases with experience and tenure indirect inference using german data determines the deep parameters of the model the estimated model not only reproduces the large and persistent fall in wages and earnings following job loss a new structural decomposition finds foregone human capital accumulation while unemployed is the worker s major cost of job loss

a note on risk aversion and preferences a note on risk aversion and preferences i introduction the theory of choice under uncertainty as presented for instance by debreu 1959 is formally identical with the theory of choice under certainty 1 yet the terminology used in the two types of problems is in practice quite different leading perhaps to an unnecessary amount of confusion use of the measures of absolute and relative risk aversion introduced by arrow 1971 and pratt 1964 provides a good example the analysis of economic behavior under uncertainty uses these measures extensively and the literature often attempts to give them intuitive appeal however some of the relationships between these risk aversion measures and basic properties of an individual s preference map remain unexplored this paper examines the relationship between arrow pratt measures of risk aversion and the standard income and substitution effects in certaintly problems in deriving and stating the main results section ii places particular emphasis on the relationship between relative risk aversion and the appropriately defined elasticity of substitution 2 section iii then shows how these results may be useful in such areas as the demand for insurance and in models with asymmetric information ii risk aversion and preferences to begin consider the following simple model of individual behavior under uncertainty there are taken to be two states of the world 1 and 2 w sub 1 alpha and w sub 2 alpha represent income in these states alpha is the individual s choice variable that affects w the specification of alpha depends on the problem under consideration 3 state 1 is taken to be the good state so that mathematical expression omitted it is assumed that an individual s preferences over prospects may be represented by a function of the form 1 mathematical expression omitted the sub utility function u w defined over income satisfies u 0 and mathematical expression omitted the usual interpretation of equation 1 is as an expected utility function where p is taken to be the subjective probability that state 2 occurs however for the purpose of this note it is more useful to view v as a specific additively separable form of a utility function when interpreted in this way it seems natural to examine the properties of v as one would with any utility function used in the analysis of behavior under certainty given the previous assumptions the indifference curves as defined by 1 are downward sloping and strictly convex to the origin in w sub 1 w sub 2 space additional properties of these indifference curves relate to measures of risk aversion as follows first following arrow 1971 and pratt 1964 define in the standard way the coefficient of absolute risk aversion 2 mathematical expression omitted and the coefficient of relative risk aversion 3 mathematical expression omitted next note that the elasticity of substitution of w sub 2 for w sub 1 may be defined in the conventional way as 4 mathematical expression omitted 4 for the function in 1 this can easily be shown to be given by 5 mathematical expression omitted simple algebra then reveals that 6 mathematical expression omitted this immediately implies that 7 mathematical expression omitted in interpreting this condition note that r sub r w may be greater than one for some values of w and less than one for other values the first inequality in 7 must hold in the same direction at both w sub 1 and w sub 2 in order for the condition to be met furthermore if utility is bounded from below then 7 can be used to show that 8 mathematical expression omitted 5 when relative risk aversion is not increasing the elasticity of substitution must be greater than one

long run wage and earnings losses of displaced workers displacement related losses are estimated using national longitudinal survey of youth data that span the years 1979 2000 the typical displaced worker faces losses of 34 065 during the period 4 years prior through 5 years following displacement proportionally this represents a 10 8 loss compared to earnings of similar nondisplaced workers over the period considerable variation in losses is reported across worker types union male and more mature workers suffer greater losses respectively than do their nonunion female and younger counterparts college graduates and high school dropouts are found to suffer lower losses compared to high school diploma holders and those who completed some college

demand for risky financial assets a portfolio analysis abstract demand for risky financial assets takes place in portfolio settings the common stochastic orders applied in economics fail to rank demand for assets in such situations even for risk averse investors therefore the evaluation of the relative desirability of risky financial assets requires the establishment of new orders we prove that if returns on risky assets are ordered by the monotone likelihood ratio order then dominating assets will be more desired by all investors with nondecreasing utility functions

penalized or protected gender and the consequences of nonstandard and mismatched employment histories millions of workers are employed in positions that deviate from the full time standard employment relationship or work in jobs that are mismatched with their skills education or experience yet little is known about how employers evaluate workers who have experienced these employment arrangements limiting our knowledge about how part time work temporary agency employment and skills underutilization affect workers labor market opportunities drawing on original field and survey experiment data i examine three questions 1 what are the consequences of having a nonstandard or mismatched employment history for workers labor market opportunities 2 are the effects of nonstandard or mismatched employment histories different for men and women and 3 what are the mechanisms linking nonstandard or mismatched employment histories to labor market outcomes the field experiment shows that skills underutilization is as scarring for workers as a year of unemployment but that there are limited penalties for workers with histories of temporary agency employment additionally although men are penalized for part time employment histories women face no penalty for part time work the survey experiment reveals that employers perceptions of workers competence and commitment mediate these effects these findings shed light on the consequences of changing employment relations for the distribution of labor market opportunities in the new economy

is unemployment insurance addictive evidence from the benefit durations of repeat users the author finds evidence that the past occurrence of a spell of insured unemployment lengthens the duration of future spells descriptive statistics from canadian administrative data covering mid 1971 to early 1990 suggest that unemployment insurance ui claimants tend to spend a longer and longer time collecting benefits with each additional claim they make this finding contradicts the implication of static neoclassical models that successive ui spells should be of the same length the author hypothesizes that the stigma attached to receiving unemployment benefits erodes with each new ui claim an individual files

some stronger measures of risk aversion in the small and the large with applications the arrow pratt measures of risk aversion for von neumann morgenstern utility functions have become workhorses for analyzing problems in the microeconomics of uncertainty they have been used to characterize the qualitative properties of demand in insurance and asset markets to examine the properties of risk taking in taxation models and to study the interaction between risk and life cycle savings problems to name just a few applications equally importantly they have generated the linear risk tolerance class of utility functions which has provided canonical examples in such diverse areas as portfolio theory and the theory of teams despite these successes there have been a number of areas for which the results have been weaker than hoped it is natural to use the risk aversion measures to compare the behavior of individuals in risky choice situations for example consider the individual portfolio choice problem in a two asset world with a riskless asset and a risky asset if individual a has a uniformly higher arrow pratt coefficient of risk aversion than individual b then b will always choose a portfolio combination with more wealth invested in the risky asset but suppose that both assets are risky now there is no obvious sense in which the more risk averse individual can be said to hold a less risky portfolio but it seems strange that such a simple alteration should destroy the analytics which support the basic intuition similarly consider the basic insurance problem if one individual a is more risk averse than another b in the arrow pratt sense it follows that a will pay a larger premium to insure against a random loss than will b typically though an individual evaluates partial rather than total insurance that is only some gambles can be insured against and others must be retained in this case even when the gambles which are retained are independent from those which are insured it is no longer true that the individual whose arrow pratt measure of risk aversion is higher will pay a larger insurance premium the situation is no better when we consider comparative statics exercises for a single individual decreasing absolute risk aversion in the sense of arrow and

trends in male labor force participation and retirement some evidence on the role of pensions and social security in the 1970 s and 1980 s this article estimates the effects of changes in pension plans and social security in the 1970s and 1980s on the steady state retirement of men work incentives associated with pension coverage and plan characteristics are calculated primarily from the 1969 79 retirement history study and the 1983 and 1989 surveys of consumer finances simulations with a structural retirement model suggest that the long run effects of changes in pension plans and social security account for about a quarter of the reduction in full time work by men in their early sixties but cannot explain the reduction by those age 65

the income losses of displaced workers abstract we use a new matched worker firm dataset for the united kingdom to estimate the income loss resulting from firm closure and mass layoffs we track workers for up to nine years after the displacement event and the availability of predisplacement characteristics allows us to implement difference in differences estimators using propensity score matching methods income losses during the first five years after the displacement event are in the range 18 35 percent per year for workers whose firm closes down and 14 25 percent for workers who exit a firm which suffers a mass layoff these losses are largely due to periods of nonemployment which is consistent with previous work from europe but contrasts with that from the united states

the long run consumption effects of earnings shocks although prior studies of job displacement and disability have measured the impact of these shocks in terms of lost earnings no previous research has linked these permanent earnings shocks to the

the economics of new blood abstract we construct a dynamic general equilibrium model of search and matching where public knowledge grows through time and workers accumulate a fraction of this knowledge through education retraining due to search delays the unemployment pool is populated by vintages of workers of differing productivities through intergenerational rivalry the human capital of older generations is rendered obsolete relative to that of the new blood higher knowledge growth exacerbates intergenerational competition thereby lowering education and growth while raising unemployment and inequality these findings help explain wage compression expansion and the hump shaped wage tenure profile across cohorts

unemployment in regional labor markets using structural theories to understand local jobless rates in west virginia the author uses a range of structural labor market models to understand differing regional jobless rates in a state affected by pockets of structural unemployment four theories of regional structural unemployment are presented and their hypotheses are statistically evaluated using west virginia county panel data the author then presents case study evidence to compare these statistical results with the realities of the county labor markets both types of empirical evidence suggest that a segmented non market clearing model in which structural unemployment stems from queuing for above market clearing wages in both a high wage primary sector and a lower wage secondary sector can shed the most light on regional unemployment rates in west virginia

do past unemployment spells affect the duration of current unemployment abstract on the basis of monthly labor force histories of respondents constructed from the panel study of income dynamics this paper finds no occurrence dependence in unemployment spells positive occurrence dependence in unemployment insurance spells and substantial heterogeneity in occurrence dependence

unemployment and subsequent earnings estimating scarring among british men 1984 94 this paper estimates the impact of unemployment on earnings following re employment for a large and representative sample of british men 1984 94 unemployment incidence is found to have only a temporary effect an average earnings setback of 10 on initial re engagement largely eroding over two years the effect of unemployment duration by contrast is permanent a one year spell adding a further penalty of 10 percentage points these wage penalties are least for young men and the low paid those most at risk of unemployment and greatest for prime age and highly paid men

portfolio characterization of risk aversion abstract investment behavior in a portfolio choice situation with one risky and one riskless asset reflects investors attitude toward risk a higher fraction of wealth invested in a risky asset indicates smaller risk aversion we examine the equivalence of this way of measuring risk aversion with the standard way based on the arrow pratt measure in several cases distinguished by specification of short sales restrictions for both assets

the effects of unemployment and underemployment on employment opportunities results from a correspondence audit of the labor market for college graduates the authors use data from a resume audit to estimate the impact of unemployment and underemployment on the employment prospects of recent college graduates they find no statistical evidence linking unemployment spells of different durations to employment opportunities by contrast college graduates who are underemployed have callback rates that are 30 lower than those of applicants who are adequately employed the null effects associated with unemployment and the adverse effects associated with underemployment are robust across cities with relatively tight and loose labor market conditions internship experience obtained while completing one s degree substantially reduces the negative effects of underemployment the data support the proposition that employers view underemployment as a strong signal of lower expected productivity

can immigrants insure against shocks as well as the native born we examine the impact of job displacement and serious health problems on multiple measures of individual and household well being using longitudinal data we extend the previous literature by exami

income after job loss the role of the family and the welfare state that displaced workers suffer long lasting earnings losses is a stylized fact raising the question whether these losses are replaced by other means for married men increased labour supply by the wife may be one way another possibility is that the public welfare system offsets the same losses i used a swedish longitudinal data set containing married couples where the husband was either employed or made redundant in 1987 by an establishment closure there was no evidence that husbands job loss positively affected wives annual earnings although husbands utilization of unemployment insurance increased significantly government transfers including also sickness insurance disability insurance and means tested social benefits did not fully replace husbands long run earnings losses hence displaced workers seem to suffer also from long lasting losses in family income which in many respects is a better measure of economic welfare than individual earnings or wages

are workers permanently scarred by job displacements this paper investigates whether workers suffer lasting scars following job displacements using david t ellwood s 1982 terminology scars represent persistent effects whereas blemishes are transitory adjustments which dissipate over time more precisely dislocated individuals are defined as scarred if they continue to earn less or to be unemployed more than their nondisplaced counterparts even after the conclusion of a several year adjustment period

unemployment history and frictional wage dispersion abstract recent evidence shows that baseline search models struggle to match the observed levels of wage dispersion this paper studies a random matching search model with human capital losses during unemployment wage dispersion increases as workers accept lower wages to avoid long unemployment spells the model explains between a third and half of the observed residual wage dispersion when adding on the job search the model accounts for all of the residual wage dispersion and generates substantial dispersion even for high values of non market time the paper thus addresses the trade off between explaining frictional wage dispersion and the cyclical behavior of unemployment