strikes and holdouts in wage bargaining theory and data we develop a private information model of union contract negotiations in which disputes signal a firm s willingness to pay previous models have assumed that all labor disputes take the form of a strike yet a prominent feature of u s collective bargaining is the holdout negotiations often continue without a strike after the contract has expired production continues with workers paid according to the expired contract we analyze the union s decision to strike or hold out and highlight its importance to strike activity strikes are more likely to occur after a drop in the real wage or a decline in unemployment

services deepening and the transmission of monetary policy the structural transformation from manufacturing to services comes with a process of services deepening the services share of intermediate inputs rises over time moreover inflation reacts less to monetary policy shocks in countries that are more intensive in services intermediates we rationalize these facts using a two sector new keynesian model where trends in sectoral productivities generate endogenous variations in the input output matrix services deepening reduces the contemporaneous response of inflation to monetary policy shocks through a marginal cost channel since services prices are stickier than manufacturing prices the rise of services intermediates raises the sluggishness of sectoral marginal costs and inflation rates

cyclical fluctuations in strike activity using a set of data on contracts and strikes for the period 1970 81 the author distinguishes among the roles of aggregate business conditions labor market conditions and product market conditions in the determination of strike incidence and duration strike incidence is found to be highest in industries that are depressed relative to the rest of the economy but in regions with low unemployment this finding is consistent with the theory that the cost of a strike to a firm increases with the demand for its product and the cost of a strike to the union increases with unemployment another finding however is that strikes are longest in industries that are booming relative to the rest of the economy

tastes and technology in a two country model of the business cycle explaining international trade on international financial markets allows people to insure country specific risk and smooth consumption intertemporally equilibrium models of business cycles with trade on global financial markets typically yield international consumption correlations near one and excessive volatility of investment the authors incorporate nontraded goods in the model and find that the implications for aggregate consumption investment and the trade balance are consistent with business cycle properties of industrialized countries however the model driven by technology shocks alone yields counterfactual implications for comovements between consumption and prices at the sectoral level taste shocks produce price quantity relationships more consistent with the data copyright 1995 by american economic association

the drivers of structural change the main goal of this paper is to provide an integrated survey of the literature devoted to identifying the drivers of structural change broadly defined as the process of reallocation of economic activity across the three broad sectors agriculture manufacturing and services using the ggdc 10 sector database this paper first presents the empirical facts associated with structural change in different regions of the world that is europe and the usa asia latin america and africa then reviews four determinants of structural change i changes in income ii changes in relative sectoral prices iii changes in input output linkages and iv changes in comparative advantage s via globalization and trade

bargaining and strikes strikes are generally regarded as an important economic phenomenon and yet good theoretical explanations of them are hard to come by the difficulty is to understand why rational parties should resort to a wasteful mechanism as a way of distributing the gains from trade why could not both parties be made better off by moving to the final distribution of surplus immediately or if it is uncertain to its certainty equivalent and sharing the benefits from increased production

wages and employment under trade unionism microeconomic models and macroeconomic applications the first part of this paper is a critical survey of microeconomic research into behavioural models of trade unionism although certain formulations of union objectives and models of wage and employment determination in unionized markets have found favor with economists unfortunately only a little is known about their empirical relevance the second part of this paper deals with the daunting problems of applying these models at the macroeconomic level one such model is estimated with data from sweden s mining and manufacturing sector from 1968 to 1982

structural transformation and the deterioration of european labor market outcomes this paper examines hours worked in continental europe and the united states from 1956 to 2003 the empirical work establishes two results first hours worked in europe decline by almost 45 percent compared to the united states over this period second this decline is almost entirely accounted for by the fact that europe develops a much smaller market service sector than the united states a simple model of time allocation is used to understand these patterns i find that relative increases in taxes and technological catch up can account for most of the differences between the european and american time allocations over this period

are workers paid their marginal products status is like coase s social costs a reciprocal phenomenon given that one person s gain in status can occur only at the expense of a loss in status for others and that workers are free to choose their coworkers it follows that the competitive wage structure within a firm must be one in which individual wage differences understate individual differences in marginal products the purpose of this paper is to examine a variety of empirical evidence that relates to this proposition about the firm s internal wage structure the paper is organized as follows section i briefly summarizes the theoretical considerations that govern competitive wage determination when status matters to people and firms are viewed as voluntary associations of workers section ii then confronts the predictions of section i by examining pay and productivity schedules for a group of sales occupations for which these schedules are relatively easily observed section ii also examines the relationship between wages and productivity for a sample of university professors an occupation in which individual productivity differences are for a variety of obvious reasons relatively more difficult to measure all of the evidence examined is consistent with the hypothesis that within firms wage rates vary substantially less than do individual productivity values section iii discusses additional observations and evidence that bear on this same hypothesis it suggests that the implicit market for status may strongly influence the ways in which firms are organized to carry out the tasks they perform section iv concludes by considering the claim that egalitarian internal wage structures arise because of equity considerations it argues that the concept of equity appears very closely linked to the concept of status and suggests a strategy for assigning monetaty value to the equity considerations that so often dominate public policy decisions

the effect of migration policy on growth structural change and regional inequality in china abstract between 2000 and 2015 china s aggregate income quadrupled its provincial income inequality fell by a third and its share of employment in agriculture fell by a half internal migration is central to this transformation with the number of internal migrant workers reaching 300 million by 2015 combining rich data on migration with a spatial general equilibrium model of china s economy we quantify the size and the impact of internal migration cost reductions in china between 2000 and 2015 during the 15 year period china s internal migration costs fell by forty five percent in addition to contributing substantially to growth these migration cost changes account for the majority of the reallocation of workers out of agriculture and the drop in regional inequality we compare the effect of migration policy changes with other important economic changes including changes in trade costs capital market distortions average cost of capital and productivity while each contributes meaningfully to growth migration policy changes are central to china s structural change and regional income convergence we also find that the recent slow down in aggregate economic growth between 2010 and 2015 is associated with smaller reduction in inter provincial migration costs and a larger role of capital accumulation

structural transformation and the rise of information technology abstract has the emergence of information technology changed the structure of employment and earnings in the us we propose a new index of occupation level it intensity and document several long term changes in the occupational landscape over the past decades using census and us klems micro data we show that i the bulk of productivity growth after 1950 is concentrated in it intensive sectors ii the share of workers in it jobs has expanded significantly with little or no pause and it jobs enjoy a large and growing earnings premium even after controlling for general task requirements e g cognitive non routine and iii the rise of the it intensive employment share is closely associated with declines in the manufacturing employment share while earnings premia for college educated and cognitive non routine workers have flattened in the aggregate since 2000 we show that they continued growing in it intensive jobs and that these jobs have played a key role in accounting for the surge of high tech service labor productivity we also use our it intensity index to estimate industry specific elasticities of substitution between it and non it intensive labor finding values of 1 6 in manufacturing and 1 3 in services finally we revisit a long standing question about the relationship between technological progress and productivity and provide evidence that occupation level it intensity is positively associated with output growth especially in the services sector

information incentives and contract timing patterns a prominent feature of wage contracting in the united states is the bunched timing pattern that is often associated with the process of pattern bargaining the model describes the bunching of wage contracts as the equilibrium outcome of decentralized decisions in an economy composed of both competitive and monopolistically competitive product markets agents time their wage adjustment to take advantage of the information associated with the timing decisions of others this information based motive leads to staggered contracting a bunching equilibrium requires the presence of heterogeneous product markets and occurs because the information transmitted by contracting agents differs across the market structures copyright 1990 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

is the elasticity of intertemporal substitution constant in all common models of inter temporal allocation the assumption of a constant elasticity of intertemporal substitution eis imposes surprising limitations on within period budget allocations consequently the constant eis assumption can be tested with demand data in fact the eis is pinned down completely by the shape of engel curves if the eis is constant then the eis can be estimated without variation in the interest rate that a price elasticity can be estimated without variation in the relevant price illustrates just how strong the constant eis assumption is the constant eis assumption is rejected by demand data

the direction of wage spillovers in manufacturing this study develops a model of wage behavior for both union and nonunion workers in the u s manufacturing sector and tests that model with separate union and nonunion wage change series covering the period 1960 to 1978 the empirical results support the traditional view that union wage behavior influences or spills over into nonunion wage changes but not vice versa these results are of particular interest because they contrast sharply with an earlier study by flanagan that reported an opposite spillover effect flanagan s results are shown to be quite sensitive to the choice of model specification and data period

structural transformation marketization and household production around the world we provide evidence on household and market production in 36 countries since 1960 on average the household sector accounts for almost half of total hours worked as gdp per capita increases the employment share of household production in total hours worked initially declines and then hardly changes while the employment shares of market goods and services decrease and increase estimating the value added of household production yields similar patterns labor productivity of household production is lower than and positively correlated with that in the market these findings can be used as an input into quantitative work involving household production

rebound directed technological change and aggregate demand for energy abstract we analyse the long run role of energy in aggregate production the factor share of energy has been remarkably constant despite the relative decline in the price of energy we analyse possible explanations for this observation ruling out the idea that endogenous directed technological change has led to a failure of energy augmenting technology to keep pace with labour augmenting technology instead we propose a model in which a combination of income and substitution effects has driven both shifts in consumption patterns towards existing energy intensive goods and the emergence of new such goods

logit estimates of strike incidence from canadian contract data logit estimates of strike incidence are made based on a unique and comprehensive data set of 2 437 collective agreements the appropriate level of aggregation since that is where bargaining occurs the results are interpreted through a theoretical framework emphasizing that strikes are more likely when the joint costs of using the strike mechanism are low relative to the cost of alternative mechanisms for achieving the same purposes such functions of strikes are to generate information elicit truth telling establish reputations provide catharsis and solve intraorganizational conflict

structural change and economic growth this paper presents a model in which a country s measured average propensity to save endogenously rises when its economy industrializes the model has agricultural and manufacturing sectors only agriculture uses land if at early dates income per capita is low agricultural consumption is important land is valuable and capital gains on land may constitute most wealth accumulation leaving the country s nipa aps low if exogenous technological progress raises incomes over time engel s law shifts demand to manufactured goods then land s portfolio importance relative to reproducible capital diminishes and the national income and products account saving rate can rise this paper presents a model illustrating that structural change due to the operation of engel s law can systematically affect an economy s measured saving rate according to the model a country s national income and product account average propensity to save will rise naturally if and when technological progress sufficiently lifts its income per capita this suggests a new interpretation of time series evidence while saving rates historically tend to be higher after industrialization than before one cannot automatically infer that changing wealth accumulation behaviour led to modernization rather structural change accompanying growth may have caused the rise in saving rates this paper also warns that international trade could lead to a contrasting pattern in cross sectional data highincome nations might contemporaneously have lower measured saving rates than poor countries recent work by mankiw romer and weil 1992 islam 1995 mankiw 1995 and others investigates long run patterns the analyses assume that each economy has attained or is moving toward a steady state equilibrium as in solow 1956 a country s steady state level of per capita gdp depends on its average propensity to save aps its rate of population growth the efficiency of its production sector etc regression outcomes seem consistent with the solow model s prediction that a higher aps will ceteris paribus lead to a higher level of income per capita the idea is that heterogeneity of exogenous preferences leads to international differences in aps s and in turn to long run differences

cyclical fluctuations in strike durations canadian data on strikes between 1946 and 1983 are used to estimate linear regression models for the logarithm of completed duration a thorough investigation of the influence of the business cycle reveals strong support for the hypothesis that strike durations are countercyclical the cyclical effect is shown to be robust to both the choice of cyclical variable and the econometric specification and the magnitude of the effect is quite substantial experimentation with different representations of the cycle reveals that it is difficult to improve on a simple formulation involving a single continuous variable

on the heterogeneous welfare gains and losses from trade how are the gains and losses from trade distributed across individuals within a country first we document that tradable goods constitute a larger fraction of expenditures for poor households second we build a trade model with nonhomothetic preferences to generate the documented relationship between tradable expenditure shares income and wealth and uninsurable earnings risk to generate heterogeneity in income and wealth third we use the calibrated model to quantify the differential welfare gains and losses from trade along the income and wealth distribution in a numerical exercise we permanently reduce trade costs so as to generate a rise in import share of gdp commensurate with that seen in the data from 2001 to 2014 we find that households in the lowest wealth decile experience welfare gains over the transition measured by permanent consumption equivalents that are 67 percent larger than those in the highest wealth decile

the rise of mass consumption societies this paper studies mechanisms behind the rise of mass consumption societies the development process depicted follows the flying geese pattern in which a series of industries take off one after another as productivity improves in these industries each consumer good becomes affordable to an increasingly large number of households which constantly expand the range of goods they consume this in turn generates larger markets for consumer goods which leads to further improvement in productivity for such virtuous cycles of productivity gains and expanding markets to occur income distribution should be neither too equal nor too unequal with too much equality the economy stagnates in a poverty trap with too much inequality the development stops prematurely

an efficient ascending bid auction for multiple objects when bidders exhibit multi unit demands standard auction methods generally yield inefficient outcomes this article proposes a new ascending bid auction for homogeneous goods such as treasury bills or telecommunications spectrum the auctioneer announces a price and bidders respond with quantities items are awarded at the current price whenever they are clinched and the price is incremented until the market clears with private values this dynamic auction yields the same outcome as the sealed bid vickrey auction but has advantages of simplicity and privacy preservation with interdependent values this auction may retain efficiency whereas the vickrey auction suffers from a generalized winner s curse

structural change and the kaldor facts in a growth model with relative price effects and non gorman preferences u s data reveal three facts 1 the share of goods in total expenditure declines at a constant rate over time 2 the price of goods relative to services declines at a constant rate over time and 3 poor households spend a larger fraction of their budget on goods than do rich households i provide a macroeconomic model with non gorman preferences that rationalizes these facts along with the aggregate kaldor facts the model is parsimonious and admits an analytical solution its functional form allows a decomposition of u s structural change into an income and substitution effect estimates from micro data show each of these effects to be of roughly equal importance

auction design for the allocation of emission permits in the presence of market power to the extent that emission permits have been allocated using market mechanisms this has been done using a sealed bid auction design typically with discriminatory prices however several authors have recommended the ascending auction format basically two competing ascending auction designs have been suggested the standard ascending auction with clock or demand schedules or an alternative ascending clock implementation of vickrey pricing the latter design was introduced as a response to problems of bid shading under the sealed bid and the standard ascending auction format the purpose of this paper is to investigate the allocation of permits under these two alternative mechanisms the auction process and the resulting market outcome in the presence of oligopolistic competition are simulated in this setting it is not obvious that bid shading is the optimal strategy under the standard design nor is it obvious that sincere bidding is the optimal strategy under the alternative ascending auction design the alternative auction format makes it less costly to pursue a strategy to increase market shares through the acquisition of emission permits thus increasing the competitor s costs leading to overbidding as the optimal strategy

relative prices and sectoral productivity the relative price of services rises with development a standard interpretation of this fact is that productivity differences across countries are larger in manufacturing than in services the service sector comprises heterogeneous categories we document that many disaggregated service categories such as transportation communication and finance feature a negative income elasticity of relative prices whereas the relative price of aggregate services is mostly driven by large expenditure categories in housing collective government and health that feature a positive income elasticity of relative prices we also document a substantial reallocation of expenditures in services from categories with positive income elasticities traditional services to categories with negative elasticities non traditional services as income rises using an otherwise standard multi sector development accounting framework extended to include an input output structure we find that the cross country income elasticity of sectoral productivity is large in non traditional services 1 15 smaller in manufacturing 1 05 and much smaller in traditional services 0 67 eliminating cross country productivity differences in non traditional services reduces aggregate income disparity by 58 percent a 7 9 fold reduction in aggregate productivity differences we also find that the heterogeneity between traditional and non traditional services has a substantial impact on aggregate productivity and that the input output structure is important in this assessment

structural change in a multisector model of growth we study a multi sector model of growth with differences in tfp growth rates across sectors and derive sufficient conditions for the coexistence of structural change characterized by sectoral labour reallocation and constant aggregate growth path the conditions are weak restrictions on the utility and production functions commonly applied by macroeconomists we present evidence from us two digit industries that is consistent with our predictions about structural change and successfully calibrate the historical shift from agriculture to manufacturing and services we show quantitatively that reasonable deviations from our conditions do not have a big impact on the properties of the model

welfare consequences of emission credit trading programs abstract the welfare consequences of moving from a command and control approach to pollution control to an emission credit trading program that attains the same environmental quality are shown to depend on the competitiveness of the output markets in which polluting firms compete if the output markets are competitive then the introduction of trading increases aggregate welfare in contrast if the output markets in which these firms participate are not competitive then the adoption of an emission credit trading program may reduce social welfare this is so even if emission credit markets are perfectly competitive

tradeable carbon permit auctions how and why to auction not grandfather abstract an auction of carbon permits is the best way to achieve domestic carbon caps designed to limit global climate change to minimize administrative costs permits would be required at the level of oil refineries natural gas pipe lines natural gas liquid sellers and coal processing plants to maximize liquidity in secondary markets permits would be fully tradable and bankable the government would conduct quarterly auctions a standard ascending clock auction in which price is gradually raised until there is no excess demand would provide reliable price discovery an auction is preferred to grandfathering giving companies permits based on historical output or emissions because it allows reduced tax distortions provides more flexibility in distribution of costs provides greater incentives for innovation and reduces the need for politically contentious arguments over the allocation of rents

choosing the wrong pond social comparisons in negotiations that reflect a self serving bias we explore the role that choice of comparison groups plays in explaining impasse in teacher contract negotiations we hypothesize that the negotiators select comparable districts in a biased fashion such that teachers salaries in districts that unions view as comparable are higher than teachers salaries in districts that school boards view as comparable we also predict that strike activity is positively related to the difference in the salary levels of the unions and boards lists of comparables we test these predictions using a unique combination of subjective survey and field data on teacher contract negotiations in pennsylvania both hypotheses are supported by the data

an optimal ad valorem tax subsidy with an output based refunded emission payment for permits auction in an oligopoly market in this paper we explores a hybrid mechanism of output based refunded emission payment and an ad valorem tax subsidy to remove the distortions emerging in the permit auction market and the product market we find that first best outcomes can be achieved under such a hybrid mechanism a clearing price equal to a pigouvian tax will endogenously result in the permit auction market moreover we extend the analysis to take into consideration the investment in abatement technology

beyond balanced growth balanced growth models are commonly used in macroeconomics because they are consistent with the well known kaldor facts regarding economic growth these models however are inconsistent with one of the most striking regularities of the growth process the massive reallocation of labour from agriculture into manufacturing and services this paper presents a simple model consistent with both the kaldor facts and the dynamics of sectoral labour reallocation

population age structure and consumption expenditure composition evidence from european countries abstract this paper aims at evaluating the effect of population age structure on households aggregate preferences and through this channel on the sectoral composition of the final consumption expenditure the analysis of european coicop 2 digit data shows that the contribution of demographic dynamics to model fit is highly relevant only slightly lower than the contribution of the income effect

the long reach of cotton in the us south tenant farming mechanization and low skill manufacturing abstract this paper examines the long run impact of cotton agriculture on local development in the us south focusing on a novel aspect of structural change exploiting climate based variation in cotton production i show that cotton specialization in the late 19th century had a negative impact on local development that lasts through 2010 this negative relationship however only became evident in the second half of the 20th century i argue that the change was caused by the mechanization of cotton production which began in the 1950s after the mechanization local manufacturing absorbed displaced cotton tenants with low human capital in response to the inflow of cotton tenants labor productivity in manufacturing began to decline and the effects persisted in the long run the persistent decline in manufacturing productivity is explained by directed technical change that reduced demand for skills in manufacturing these results indicate that depending on the agricultural background structural change can negatively affect the evolution of technology and productivity in the industrial sector

changes in sectoral composition associated with economic growth in this paper the author uses dynamic general equilibrium methods to examine the interrelationship between sectoral composition and growth she shows that growth is affected by sectoral composition and vice versa the model is basically a solow model of sustained growth with multiple consumption goods and nonhomothetic preferences each consumption good is produced using different factor intensities the rate of exogenous technological change is different in each sector nonhomotheticity of preferences drives the result that sectoral composition affects growth rates copyright 1997 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

dynamic status effects savings and income inequality this paper advances the hypothesis that the intensity of status preferences depends negatively on the average wealth of society endogenous dynamic status effect in accordance with empirical evidence our theory replicates the contradictory historical facts of an increasing saving rate along with declining returns to capital over time by affecting the dynamics of the saving rate the dynamic status effect raises inequality thereby providing a behavioural mechanism for the observed diverse dynamics of income inequality across countries in countries in which the dynamic status effect is strong weak inequality rises declines over time in response to a positive productivity shock

market power and transferable property rights the appeal of using markets as a means of allocating scarce resources stems in large part from the assumption that a market will approximate the competitive ideal when competition is not a foregone conclusion the question naturally arises as to how a firm might manipulate the market to its own advantage this paper analyzes the issue of market power in the context of markets for transferable property rights first a model is developed that explains how a single firm with market power might exercise its influence this is followed by an examination of the model in the context of a particular policy problem the control of particulate sulfates in the los angeles region

a new econometric model of union threat effects the union threat effect is the propensity of non union employers to resist union organization by raising wages this study introduces an empirical model of the non union employer s optimal wage in the presence of threat effects estimates of an equation of a firm s unionization probability provide key variables unlike previous models this specification dervies directly from a theoritical model separstes threat effects from the influence of other union non union spillovers and efficiency wages and includes many factors affecting the probability of unionization wage equation estimates reveal that the predicted threat of unionization did not significantly raise non union wages in the united states in 1980

auctions and bidding a primer maybe the contractor was right to think bid jobs are different but it is more likely that he suffered from too simple a view of what is involved in preparing a competitive bid our analysis will show that even an experienced estimator working in familiar terrain can lose money if he doesn t understand the subtleties of competitive bidding the phenomenon experienced by the painting contractor known as the winner s curse is just one of the surprising and puzzling conclusions that have been turned up by modern research into auctions another is the theoretical proposition supported also by some experimental evidence that for example a sealed bid treasury bill auction in which each buyer pays a price equal to the highest rejected bid would yield more revenue to the treasury than the current procedure in which the winning bidder pays the seemingly higher amount equal to his own bid there are also subtle results that demonstrate the equivalence of such apparently different institutions as the standard sealed bid auction in which the auctioneer seller sells the goods to the highest bidder for a price equal to his bid and the dutch auction in which the auctioneer seller begins by asking a high price and gradually lowers the price until

can traditional theories of structural change fit the data two traditional explanations for structural changes are sector biased technological progress and non homothetic preferences this paper integrates both into an otherwise standard growth model and quantitatively evaluates them vis a vis time series the exercise identifies a set of puzzles for standard theories i the model cannot account for the steep decline in manufacturing and rise in services in the later data ii the standard model requires implausibly low elasticity of substitution across goods to match the consumption and output data and iii the behavior of consumption and output shares differs significantly from that of employment shares we argue that models that incorporate home production sector specific factor distortions and differences across sectors in the accumulation of human capital are promising avenues to amend the standard models jel o11 o14 o41

the u s demographic transition between 1800 and 1940 the u s went through a dramatic demographic transition in 1800 the average woman had 7 children and 94 percent of the population lived in rural areas by 1940 the average woman birthed just 2 kids and only 43 percent of populace lived in the country the question is what accounted for this shift in the demographic landscape the answer given here is that technological progress in agriculture and manufacturing explains these facts

industrialization and the demand for mineral commodities abstract this paper uses a new data set that begins in 1840 to investigate how industrialization affects the derived demand for mineral commodities i establish that there is substantial heterogeneity in the long run effect of manufacturing output on demand across five commodities a one percent increase in per capita manufacturing output leads to an approximately 1 5 percent increase in aluminum demand and a roughly 1 percent rise in copper demand estimated elasticities for lead tin and zinc are below unity my results suggest that the experience of japan and south korea s industrialization for example may be used to infer the impact of china s industrialization on future demand for metals the results imply substantial differences across commodities with regard to future demand adjustment to equilibrium takes 7 13 years which helps explain the long duration of commodity price fluctuations

tell the truth or not the montero mechanism for emissions control at work abstract we experimentally test the truth telling mechanism proposed by montero 2008 for eliciting firms abatement costs we compare this mechanism with two well known alternative allocation mechanisms free and costly allocation of permits at the pigouvian price controlling for the number of firms and the firms maximal emissions we find that in line with the theoretical predictions firms over report their maximal emissions under free allocation of permits and under report these under costly allocation of permits under montero s mechanism by contrast firms almost always report their maximal emissions truthfully however in terms of efficiency the difference between montero s mechanism and costly allocation disappears with industries including more than one firm

auction design for gas pipeline transportation capacity the case of nabucco and its open season as a response to the russian dominance of the eu s natural gas supplies and the eu s increasing gas demands major gas pipeline projects are currently under way to enhance the eu s energy supply security oftentimes to raise financing and to allocate gas transportation capacities auctions are carried out to allow gas shippers to book transportation rights in recent years auctions have emerged as one of the most successful allocation mechanisms in the microeconomic theory however different auction designs can lead to different outcomes making the choice of auction design a decisive one especially for divisible good auctions this paper seeks to give a formulation of an optimal auction design for gas pipeline transportation capacity specifically three different mechanisms are tested i npv allocation ii pro rata allocation and iii optimization in addition nabucco is taken as a case study to empirically show results of such auction designs results show that a trade off between revenue optimization and fair allocation can be observed allocation per optimization is the favorable auction design when revenue maximization is more important than fair allocation on the other hand pro rata allocation is the auction design to be chosen when fairness of allocation is considered most central

sequential bargaining with incomplete information this paper describes a simple two person two period bargaining game and solves it using the concept of perfect bayesian equilibrium in which the actions of each player convey information which is used by his opponent the paper examines the effects of changes in bargaining costs the size of the contract zone and the length of the bargaining process on such aspects of the solution as the probability of impasse and the likelihood of concessions the combination of information transfer and the lack of pre commitment embodied in perfectness yields many surprising results common perceptions about the effects of parameter changes on bargaining processes are suspect and should be checked in the particular game being discussed

what do we learn about consumer demand patterns from micro data the aim of this paper is to assess the importance of using micro level data in the econometric analysis of consumer demand to do this we utilize a time series of repeated cross sections covering some 4 000 households in each of 15 years employing a number of different aggregation procedures we conclude that aggregate data alone are unlikely to produce reliable estimates of structural price and income coefficients however once certain aggregation factors as well as trend and seasonal components are included an aggregate model is not necessarily outperformed across all demand equations in terms of forecasting ability jel d12 c52 c31 the purpose of this paper is to develop a complete consumer demand system based on a time series of individual household data and to use it to measure the biases introduced into the study of consumer de mand behavior when aggregate data are used in place of the appropriate microeco nomic data we assess the suitability of ag gregate data through the impact on income and price elasticities and by evaluating the ability of both micro and aggregate based models to forecast aggregate consumer de mand the biases introduced by the use of aggregate data depend upon the way that household characteristics interact with in come and price effects and on departures of demand systems from linearity we explore the structure of microeconomic demand sys tems and the role of household characteris tics in the behavior of consumer demand both for the light this may shed on the pattern of future demands and for the im plications this behavior has for issues of aggregation consumer demand patterns typically found in micro data sets vary considerably across households with different household characteristics and with different levels of income we model this variability by making intercept and slope parameters in the budget share equations of our demand sys tem depend on household characteristics and by allowing for nonlinear total log expenditure terms in fact in theory consistent demand systems it is total ex penditure rather than disposable income that is allocated across goods we find that this general framework leads to a well specified data coherent demand system which is a quadratic extension of the popu lar almost ideal model of angus s deaton and john muellbauer 1980 the micro level estimates are shown to be sensitive to the treatment of endogeneity of total expen diture and to the specification of interaction terms with household characteristics in ad dition this specification is also shown to possess many attractive features for the evaluation of aggregate models

tradeable emission permits regulations in the presence of imperfectly competitive product markets welfare implications in the present paper we analyse the interaction of a competitive market for emission permits with an oligopolistic product market it is well known that a competitive permits market achieves the cost minimizing distribution of abatement effort among the polluting firms for a given reduction in emissions however when the product market is oligopolistic it may redistribute production inefficiently among firms it has been suggested that this inefficiency can outweigh the gains obtained from using emission permits instead of command and control although this argument is clearly correct under full information it is shown in the present paper that it reverses under incomplete information in particular it is shown that when tradeable emission permits are specified according to the standard textbook example they yield higher social welfare than the command and control regulation

redistribution and pollution taxes with non linear engel curves abstract this paper analyses optimal corrective taxation and optimal income redistribution the pigouvian pollution tax is higher if pollution damages disproportionally hurt the poor due to equity weighting of pollution damages moreover under general utility functions optimal pollution taxes should be set below the pigouvian tax if the poor spend a disproportionate fraction of their income on polluting goods however if engel curves are linear optimal pollution taxes should follow the first best rule for the pigouvian corrective tax even if the government wants to redistribute income and the poor spend a disproportional part of their income on polluting goods the often used quasi linear ces and stone geary utility functions all have linear engel curves if engel curves are linear and if pollution taxes are not optimised pareto improving green tax reforms exist that move the pollution tax closer to the pigouvian tax simulations demonstrate that optimal corrective taxes should be pigouvian if the demand for polluting goods is derived from a les demand system but deviate from the pigouvian taxes if demand for polluting goods demand is derived from a piglog demand system

learning in sequential wage negotiations theory and evidence when union firm pairs bargain sequentially and when unobserved components of firms abilities to pay are subject to correlated shocks unions that bargain later in a sequence can acquire valuable information by observing previous bargaining outcomes in their industry we derive the implications of this kind of learning in an asymmetric information model of wage negotiations and argue that the most robust implication is a lower incidence of strikes among followers than leaders in wage negotiations considerable empirical support for this implication is found in a long panel of canadian contract negotiations

strategic delay in bargaining this paper analyses a bargaining model with incomplete information in which the time between offers is an endogenous strategic variable we find equilibria involving a delay to agreement that is due to the use of strategic time delay by bargainers to signal their relative strength under some specifications of the parameters delay is present in the unique sequential equilibrium whose beliefs satisfy one intuitive restriction this delay does not vanish as the minimal time between offers becomes small