trends and cycles in historical gold and silver prices abstract the study proposes an alternative modelling specification for the real prices of gold and silver that allows the long run trend and cyclical behaviour to be modelled simultaneously by incorporating two differencing parameters in a fractional integration framework however we also consider the separate cases of a standard i d process with a pole or singularity at the zero frequency and a cyclical i d model that incorporates a single pole in the spectrum at a non zero frequency we use annual data spanning from 1833 to 2013 for gold and 1792 to 2013 for silver based on the more flexible model that permits a pole at both zero trend and non zero cycle frequencies we find that in general the estimates associated to the long run or zero frequency appear to be above 1 in case of gold and below 1 for silver while the order of integration associated with the cyclical frequency is slightly above 0 in the majority of the cases in the two series further higher orders of integration are associated to the long run component compared with the cyclical one the implications of these findings are highlighted

shadow banking and the financial side of financialisation this paper tries to shed some light on the nature and functioning of shadow banking with a special focus on its role in the evolution of financialization as well as in sharpening income and wealth inequality on the one hand it discusses how securitization has allowed traditional banks to expand their business providing the financial system with the raw materials for the manufacturing of complex structured financial products on the other hand it questions the view of traditional and shadow banks as two parallel and alternative systems claiming that financialization did not alter the role of commercial banks as money creators but rather diverted endogenously created money to the financial sphere feeding its expansion finally our work discusses some policy options for the de financialization of the economy through more progressive taxation of the financial sector as well as a stronger engagement to reduce income and wealth inequality

foreign exchange markets in transition economies china abstract the purpose of the paper is to examine the behaviour of exchange rates in china during the recent period of trade and exchange system reforms a simple theoretical model based on the monetary approach is developed to explain the exchange rate in the parallel or black market given the official and substantially controlled rate the model is tested on quarterly data using the cointegration technique error correction modeling and impulse response analysis the results confirm the main features of the model and have policy implications concerning the use of devaluation and monetary policy for stimulating the economy and the adoption of policies which encourage black market activities

from the classical economists to empiricists a review of the terms of trade controversy contrary to the classical position the works of prebisch and singer in the middle of the last century launched the controversial hypothesis of a long term decline in the terms of trade of primary products vis a vis manufactured goods and a corresponding decline in the terms of trade of developing countries vis a vis advanced ones the present study traces the origin and evolution of the hypothesis and reviews the related statistical debate it also reviews the theoretical support for the prebisch singer hypothesis it is an exercise in the history of economic thought to trace how the controversies surrounding the terms of trade have evolved over time specifically noting that with the development of the field of econometrics the central thesis of the argument got lost somewhere in the realm of hi tech statistical debates

the effect of food stamps on labor supply a bivariate selection model abstract although there is a large literature on the effects of u s transfer programs on labor supply this is the first such study of the food stamp program we model the nonlinearity and nonconvexity of the budget constraint and use maximum likelihood methods to estimate hours of work functions for female heads of household the largest recipient group in the program we also model the joint response to afdc and food stamps and we account for the existence of a significant number of eligible households who do not participate in the programs a three equation bivariate selection model is estimated on a sample of eligible households with maximum likelihood

micro data heterogeneity and the evaluation of public policy nobel lecture this paper summarizes the contributions of microeconometrics to economic knowledge four main themes are developed 1 microeconometricians developed new tools to respond to econometric problems raised by the analysis of the new sources of micro data produced after the second world war 2 microeconometrics improved on aggregate time series methods by building models that linked economic models for individuals to data on individual behavior 3 an important empirical regularity detected by the field is the diversity and heterogeneity of behavior this heterogeneity has profound consequences for economic theory and for econometric practice 4 microeconometrics has contributed substantially to the scientific evaluation of public policy

bureaucracy and the divisibility of local public output further econometric evidence based on the theory of bureaucracy in contrast to the median voter model expenditure functions are estimated for various municipal services provided by some smsa cities various econometric measures and diagnostics are applied to the sample data to test for the incidence of multicollinearity heteroscedasticity and influential observations the test results indicate the absence of any econometric problems and the empirical results can be taken as statistically meaningful and to a large extent precise over the range of smsa cities included in the estimated model the presented econometric evidence points out that in these communities the municipal services are private in nature and there exist no economies of scale in the provision of these services although these services reveal no pure publicness or quasi publicness they are provided by local governments through a collective choice mechanism perhaps due to the inherent problems associated with their provision such as the cities lack of knowledge of individuals preferences and tastes and the anticipated potential free rider problem

welfare transfers in two parent families labor supply and welfare participation under afdc up this paper examines the effect of cash transfers and food stamp benefits on family labor supply and welfare participation among two parent families the aid to families with dependent children unemployed parent program has provided cash benefits to two parent households since 1961 despite recent expansions little is known about the program s effect on labor supply and welfare participation i develop a model of family labor supply in which hours of work for the husband and wife are chosen to maximize family utility subject to a family budget constraint accounting for afdc up benefits and other tax and transfer programs the husband s and wife s labor supply decisions are restricted to no work part time work and full time work maximum likelihood techniques are used to estimate parameters of the underlying hours of work and welfare participation equations the estimates are used to determine the magnitude of the work disincentive effects of the afdc up program and to simulate the effects of changes in afdc up benefit and eligibility rules on family labor supply and welfare participation the results suggest that labor supply and welfare participation among two parent families are highly responsive to changes in the benefit structure under the afdc up program

welfare recipient work choice and in kind benefits in washington state we analyze the work choice of welfare recipients potential welfare recipients compare their on and off welfare utility from after tax income and in kind benefits via employment or welfare and choose whether to work our null hypothesis which we reject is that benefits affect only the decision to work or not not the hours worked which will depend on wages using temporary assistance for needy families tanf administrative data from washington state we find that employer provided health insurance and child care subsidies significantly raise exit rates of tanf recipients and induce greater work effort other work inducing factors include wages and the earned income tax credit while increased levels of medicaid food stamps and the income guarantee increase welfare dependency

what drives commodity price booms and busts abstract we provide evidence on the dynamic effects of aggregate commodity demand shocks commodity supply shocks and storage demand or other commodity specific demand shocks on real commodity prices we analyze a new data set of price and production levels for 12 agricultural goods metals and soft commodities from 1870 to 2013 we establish that commodity demand shocks strongly dominate commodity supply shocks in driving prices over a broad set of commodities and over a long period of time while commodity demand shocks have gained importance over time commodity supply shocks have become less relevant

congestion function specification and the publicness of local public goods abstract this paper is about the measurement of congestion within the median voter demand framework the model of congestion traditionally used in the literature and four others are compared and tested in a median voter framework the results show that a more flexible functional form which imposes fewer a priori restrictions on the data does at least as good a job of explaining variations in local government expenditures furthermore it is shown that measured publicness of local public goods depends entirely on the a priori restrictions imposed on the congestion function

if at first you don t succeed applying for and staying on the supplemental nutrition assistance program we examine households applications to and participation in the supplemental nutrition assistance program using administrative records from south carolina we model application resolutions with multinomial logit mnl specifications where the possible outcomes are acceptance denial due to income ineligibility denial due to a failure to provide sufficient information and denial due to other reasons for cases with successful applications we model the durations of participation spells using competing risk hazard specifications that distinguish among exits that result from missed recertifications financial ineligibility incomplete or missing information and other reasons the application and hazard outcomes depend on past programme behaviour and observed characteristics the results indicate that a household s application and participation history affect its subsequent application success and programme tenure

unit roots flexible trends and the prebisch singer hypothesis abstract this paper studies the dynamic properties of relative commodity prices especially the prebisch singer hypothesis on their secular decline using a new family of unit root tests based on the fourier approximation to the data s underlying trend the approximation controls for low frequency variations such as structural breaks or the long swings induced by hypothesized super cycles in the data regarding the extant literature we find considerably more evidence against nonstationarity in relative commodity prices and very limited support for the prebisch singer hypothesis

on the measurement of congestion in the provision of local public goods abstract this paper contends that a measurement problem the zoo effect has led to upwardly biased estimates of the degree to which local public goods are subject to congestion the suggestion is that the observed positive correlation between public expenditure and population size reflects in large measure the wider range of services provided in more populous jurisdictions not simply a high propensity of these goods to become congested

the welfare cost of means testing pensioner participation in income support we estimate parametric and semi parametric binary choice models of benefit take up by british pensioners and use a revealed preference argument to infer the cash equivalent value of disutility arising from stigma or complexity of the claims process these implicit costs turn out to be relatively small averaging about 3 4 per week across income support recipients using the foster greer thorbecke measure of poverty among pensioners we find that allowing for implicit claim costs incurred by benefit recipients raises the measured degree of poverty by not more than 13 copyright 2007 john wiley sons ltd

food oil volatility spillovers and the impact of distinct biofuel policies on price uncertainties on feedstock markets over recent decades the link between crude oil and agricultural markets has been reinforced following the introduction of biofuels we use timely measures of co variation spillovers to analyze the role of crude oil in shaping price uncertainties of agricultural commodities which are largely used as biofuel feedstocks our sectoral and market specific measures distinguish tranquil 1995 2005 and crisis episodes 2006 2015 as well as periods during which either consumption mandates or tax credits were enacted to spur biofuels during the crisis period crude oil volatility transmissions account for 16 20 of price uncertainties in ethanol biodiesel feedstock markets on average moreover we find evidence of enhanced volatility transmissions under tax credit regimes compared with consumption mandates the results from pooled regressions confirm stronger volatility transmissions by about 12 under the enactment of tax credits

inflation in mozambique empirical facts based on persistence seasonality and breaks this article investigates inflation in mozambique using long range dependence lrd techniques in monthly data from december 1995 to october 2012 two important features of the data are analysed persistence and seasonality looking at aggregated and disaggregated data the stability of the parameters across the sample is also investigated the results indicate a high degree of persistence in the data along with a strong seasonal pattern policy implications are discussed

output value risk for commodity producers the uncertain benefits of diversification summary commodity price volatility has long been recognized as a main risk for commodity producers welfare and has led to diversification efforts less noticed has been the importance of commodity correlations and their increase after 2006 in the risk faced by producers to assess their impact we perform an empirical analysis of the market value of commodity producers output in a sample of 56 countries producing 26 commodities we find that diversification and correlations strongly explain output value volatility during 1987 2006 producers effectively specialized in a single commodity had an average output value volatility of 27 0 while producers of three or more commodities had a 12 7 volatility in this period average correlation was 8 and diversification was very effective in the 2007 12 period correlations averaged 26 and output volatilities for specialized and diversified commodities were 30 4 and 19 5 respectively thus reducing the benefit of diversification at a time of macroeconomic distress in 2013 16 output volatilities reverted to levels close to those in 1987 2006 as commodities decorrelated again our findings should be relevant to policy makers embarking in diversification efforts and in the analysis of macroeconomic risk of commodity producers

a life cycle consistent empirical model of family labour supply using cross section data this paper estimates a utility maximising model of the joint determination of male and female labour supplies using a sample of married couples from the u k family expenditure survey the emphasis is on the estimation of within period preferences that are consistent with intertemporal two stage budgeting under uncertainty however the approach we adopt provides an alternative method of estimating certain aspects of life cycle behaviour to the fixed effects constant approach of heckman and macurdy 1980 macurdy 1981 and browning deaton and irish 1985 moreover it relaxes some of the underlying restrictions that are implicit in these constant models under uncertainty

cost sharing versus block funding in a federal system a demand systems approach this paper employs a maximizing framework consistent with the axioms of consumer preference to analyze local government s choice of spending on different social services within this framework it is possible to include both block funding and cost sharing intergovernment transfer schemes canada s movement to block funding from the cost sharing method of financing provincial expenditures on hospitals medical care and post secondary education is analyzed the results indicate that the provincial governments actions are generally consistent with a significant maximizing model of consumer behavior and that the change to block funding had a significant impact on real provincial funding of some previously cost shared social services

a structural model of multiple welfare program participation and labor supply work on estimating the labor supply effects of high marginal tax rates in welfare programs has been hindered by the difficulty of estimating the effects of participation in multiple welfare programs simultaneously the authors solve this problem by applying methods of simulation estimation to a model of labor supply and multiple program participation the results show asymmetric wage and tax rate effects with fairly large wage elasticities of labor supply but very inelastic responses to moderate changes in cumulative marginal tax rates implying that high welfare tax rates do not necessarily induce major reductions in work effort copyright 1998 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

the transmission from equity markets to commodity markets in crises periods abstractthis article investigates the transmission from equity markets to commodity markets during two major financial crises namely the subprime mortgage and the sovereign debt crises we perform an analysis on sub stages from 3 january 2003 to 31 october 2013 to capture the price behaviour of both equity and commodity markets two financial crises indicators vix and cds are used to represent fear of a crisis we find that correlations between commodity and equity markets are time varying and highly volatile during a financial crisis while sharing some common features commodities cannot be considered a homogeneous asset class segmentation characteristics of commodity markets disappear in times of financial crises reducing their substitutability as an investment portfolio for asset diversification purposes through our test for granger causality we find the existence of transmission during a financial crisis volatility spillover effect also plays a major role as transmission mechanisms after the

an economic model of welfare stigma perhaps the most basic assumption of the economic theory of consumer demand is that more is better than less virtually all of the major propositions of consumer theory can in a certain sense be derived from the assumption that goods are good interestingly however this tenet seems to be violated by the behavior of many individuals in the low income population for many turn out to be eligible for a positive welfare benefit but do not in fact join the welfare rolls for example it has been estimated that in 1970 only about 69 percent of the families eligible for afdc aid to families with dependent children participated in the program see richard michel 1980 the corresponding percentage for afdc u the program for which families with an unemployed male are eligible was only 43 percent and the participation rate in the food stamp program was only 38 percent see maurice mcdonald 1977 this phenomenon has puzzled many investigators because such individuals do not locate on the boundaries of their budget sets consequently most investigators ignore the problem when studying the effects of welfare programs on behavior in this paper this seemingly irrational rejection of an increase in income is modeled as resulting from welfare stigma that is from disutility arising from participation in a welfare program per se 1 the existence of stigma has been amply documented in the sociological literature patrick horan and patricia austin 1974 lee rainwater 1979 where interviews of recipients have often uncovered feelings of lack of self respect and negative self characterizations from participation in welfare nevertheless this phenomenon has not been modeled and many questions consequently remain when is the disutility of participation strong enough to prevent participation shouldn t we expect individuals to weigh the disutility of participation against the potential benefit in their decisions what is the elasticity of participation with respect to the potential benefit also in a slightly different vein how are the work disincentives of welfare affected by stigma these questions have been given scant attention by economists yet they are crucial for our ability to predict the impact of various welfare programs on the lowincome population here these questions are addressed by modeling nonparticipation as a utility maximizing decision the model is developed and estimated for the afdc program 2 the model posits an individual utility function containing not just disposable income but

super cycles of commodity prices since the mid nineteenth century summary decomposition of real commodity prices suggests four super cycles during 1865 2010 ranging between 30 and 40 years with amplitudes 20 40 higher or lower than the long run trend non oil price super cycles follow world gdp indicating they are essentially demand determined causality runs in the opposite direction for oil prices the mean of each super cycle of non oil commodities is generally lower than for the previous cycle supporting the prebisch singer hypothesis tropical agriculture experienced the strongest and steepest long term downward trend through the twentieth century followed by non tropical agriculture and metals while real oil prices experienced a long term upward trend interrupted temporarily during the twentieth century

the causes of government expenditure growth a survey of the u s evidence abstract the growth of government budgets can be broken down into a institutional and institutional components the former component the familiar substitution income and population public goods tax sharing effects is estimated to contribute about two fifths of the growth of u s government spending the latter component rent seeking political redistributions bureaucracy and perceptual informational impedimentia is important too but an exact imputation cannot be asserted given the state of the art in empirical public choice theory the cross effects on spending of the growth of regulation and tax preferences or tax expenditures though interesting is not pursued

economic impacts of el nino southern oscillation evidence from the colombian coffee market el nino southern oscillation enso is a naturally occurring phenomenon that affects weather around the world past enso episodes have had severe impacts on the economy of colombia we study the influence of enso on colombian coffee production exports and price our structural econometric specification is consistent with an economic model of the market for colombian coffee which in the short run is characterized by a downward sloping demand curve and by a vertical supply curve we show that el nino i e positive shocks to enso is beneficial for colombian production and exports and decreases the real price of colombian coffee on the contrary la nina i e negative shocks to enso depresses colombian coffee production and exports and increases price however the overall impact of enso shocks is small both in the short run and in the long run shocks to international demand for colombian coffee are more relevant than supply side shocks in colombia in explaining the dynamics of the price of colombian coffee our results suggest that a given coffee price shock can have beneficial detrimental or negligible effects on the colombian economy depending on its underlying cause as a consequence policy responses to coffee price shocks should be designed by looking at the causes of the shocks

the prebisch singer hypothesis four centuries of evidence we employ a unique data set and new time series techniques to reexamine the existence of trends in relative primary commodity prices the data set comprises 25 commodities and provides a new historical perspective spanning the seventeenth to the twenty first centuries new tests for the trend function robust to the order of integration of the series are applied to the data results show that eleven price series present a significant and downward trend over all or some fraction of the sample period in the very long run a secular deteriorating trend is a relevant phenomenon for a significant proportion of primary commodities 2010 the president and fellows of harvard college and the massachusetts institute of technology

testing the prebisch singer hypothesis since 1650 evidence from panel techniques that allow for multiple breaks abstract in this paper we re examine two important aspects of the dynamics of relative primary commodity prices namely the secular trend and the short run volatility to do so we employ 25 series some of them starting as far back as 1650 and powerful panel data stationarity tests that allow for endogenous multiple structural breaks results show that all the series are stationary after allowing for endogenous multiple breaks test results on the prebisch singer hypothesis which states that relative commodity prices follow a downward secular trend are mixed but with a majority of series showing negative trends we also make a first attempt at identifying the potential drivers of the structural breaks we end by investigating the dynamics of the volatility of the 25 relative primary commodity prices also allowing for endogenous multiple breaks we describe the often time varying volatility in commodity prices and show that it has increased in recent years

manufactured exports of developing countries and their terms of trade since 1965 abstract during the last 40 years since the prebisch singer terms of trade deterioration hypothesis was first proposed the commodity composition of exports of developing countries has undergone a major change in the direction of dominance of manufactures in their nonfuel exports with strong growth in the volume of their manufactured exports but this did not allow developing countries to escape unequal exchange relations with the industrial countries their barter terms of trade in manufactures showed signs of weakness rather than improvement and clearly failed to reflect the respective productivity trends leading to deterioration in factoral terms of trade

the food stamp participation and labor supply of married couples an empirical analysis of joint decisions this paper examines the effect of the food stamp program on intrafamily labor supply and program participation decisions married couples simultaneously choose the labor supply of the husband and wife and whether to participate in the food stamp program using data from the survey of income and program participation the author estimates a nested multinomial logit model simulations indicate smaller labor supply effects to changes in the food stamp benefit than the previous research which focused on single parents married couple program participation is found to be relatively responsive to changes in food stamp benefits

long run commodity prices economic growth and interest rates 17th century to the present day a significant proportion of the trade basket of many developing countries is comprised of primary commodities this implies relative price movements in commodities may have important consequences for economic growth and poverty reduction taking a long run perspective we examine the historical relation between a new aggregate index of commodity prices economic activity and interest rates initial empirical tests show that commodity prices present a downward trend with breaks over the entire industrial age providing clear support for the prebisch singer hypothesis it would also appear that this trend has declined at a faster rate since the 1870s conversely several gdp series such as world chile china uk and us trend upwards with breaks such trending behaviour in both commodity prices and economic activity suggests a latent common factor like technological innovation to assess the relationships between economic series we apply a stationary var vector autoregression to model movements around trends strikingly there is evidence that commodity prices granger cause income and interest rates whilst interest rates granger cause commodity prices from these results and the related impulse response function analysis the historical perspective provides some useful information for contemporary policy makers for example loose monetary policy has tended to support higher commodity prices more over commodity price movements have an asymmetric country effect on economic activity periods of falling commodity prices will support gdp growth for com modity importers like the us but depress growth for commodity exporters such as chile

a note on the publicness of local goods evidence from new york state municipalities for more than a decade now the non publicness of goods provided by local governments has been an accepted result in the median voter demand literature mcmillan wilson and arthur 1981 found that publicness was exhausted in ontario towns of more than 10 000 inhabitants but that there were still unexploited economies to collective provision in smaller towns using the original bergstrom and goodman 1973 model and new york state data i find that there is even less evidence of publicness in small towns than in large ones my results call into question the mcmillan wilson and arthur hypothesis une note sur le degre de materialite publique d usage des biens locaux le cas des municipalites de b etat de new york depuis plus d une decennie l un des resultats de la litterature specialisee analysant le comportement de demande du voteur median a ete que les biens fournis par les gouvernements locaux n etaient pas des biens publics mcmillan wilson et arthur 1981 ont montre que le degre de materialite publique d usage etait limite dans le cas des villes de plus de 10 000 habitants en ontario mais qu il existait des economies inexploitees emanant de la fourniture publique dans le cas des plus petites villes a partir du modele de bergstrom et goodman 1973 et de donnees pour l etat de new york l auteur en arrive a la conclusion qu il y a encore moins de materialite publique d usage dans les petites villes que dans les grandes ces resultats remettent en question l hypothese mcmillan wilson et arthur in contrast to the strict samuelsonian dichotomy of pure public and pure private goods the tiebout 1956 and buchanan 1965 models plot goods along a continuum of congestability goods provided by local governments or collectively purveyed and consumed in clubs are described as lying somewhere between the two polar cases the median voter demand model as developed by borcherding and deacon i would like to thank wallace oates william oakland suk kang and an anonymous referee for helpful comments on earlier drafts of this paper they are of course exonerated from association with such errors as may still remain canadian journal of economics revue canadienne d economique xix no 3 august aout 1986 printed in canada imprime au canada 0008 4085 86 568 573 1 50 canadian economics association this content downloaded from 157 55 39 102 on mon 03 oct 2016 05 08 06 utc all use subject to http about jstor org terms publicness of local goods 569 1972 and bergstrom and goodman 1973 incorporates this hypothesis observed levels of local public expenditures are said to reflect the preference of the median voter however the empirical models also include a congestion function intended to reflect the effect of collective consumption on individual enjoyment the function used in the literature is of the form

world oil and agricultural commodity prices evidence from nonlinear causality abstract the increasing co movements between the world oil and agricultural commodity prices have renewed interest in determining price transmission from oil prices to those of agricultural commodities this study extends the literature on the oil agricultural commodity prices nexus which particularly concentrates on nonlinear causal relationships between the world oil and three key agricultural commodity prices corn soybeans and wheat to this end the linear causality approach of toda yamamoto and the nonparametric causality method of diks panchenko are applied to the weekly data spanning from 1994 to 2010 the linear causality analysis indicates that the oil prices and the agricultural commodity prices do not influence each other which supports evidence on the neutrality hypothesis in contrast the nonlinear causality analysis shows that i there are nonlinear feedbacks between the oil and the agricultural prices and ii there is a persistent unidirectional nonlinear causality running from the oil prices to the corn and to the soybeans prices the findings from the nonlinear causality analysis therefore provide clues for better understanding the recent dynamics of the agricultural commodity prices and some policy implications for policy makers farmers and global investors this study also suggests the directions for future studies

linkages among welfare food assistance programmes and labour supply evidence from the survey of programme dynamics at the centre of the debate on welfare reform is whether incentives based systems help poor families move out of poverty into jobs recent data from the first survey of programme dynamics longitudinal and the 1998 experimental data files allow evaluation of the interaction among the food stamp programme fsp temporary assistance for needy families tanf programme and labour force participation under different programme design and economic conditions a model that incorporates jointly determined programmes participation and work decisions is applied to a sample of working age lower income and asset households participation in tanf increases the probability of fsp participation and decreases the probability of being in the work force working decreases the probability of receiving food stamps work tanf and fsp participation are related and tanf and fsp participation rates among poor households who are potentially eligible for tanf are sensitive to changes in programme parameters as expected labou

family economics and macro behavior in this 1987 presidential address to the american economic association the author explores the contributions of the field of family economics to macroeconomic analysis the focus is on family behavior as an active endogenous factor that both affects and is affected by the evolution of the economy much of the time is spent on long term economic growth although i also discuss short and long cycles in economic activity and the interaction between overlapping generations through social security transmission of inequality and in other ways many conclusions in these and presumably other macro areas change radically when family choices get the attention they deserve excerpt

bureaucracy monopoly and competition a critical analysis of the budget maximizing model of bureaucracy niskanen has argued that if government bureaus act so as to maximize their budgets they will always produce an output greater than a private industry resulting in efficiency losses to society since the budget maximizing model relates to a number of intersecting areas of organizational analysis from several disciplines it is important to note the limitations of the model first niskanen s result is only true for a bureau which can exercise perfect price discrimination in its relationship with its financial sponsor where this is not the case the bureau may produce less than a private industry second further variation is introduced by examining the effects on a bureau of specialized resources public goods competition and low productivity a bureau which would otherwise produce an output in excess of the competitive level will when any of these factors are present produce an output closer to the competitive output these results may also have significant policy implications since major industrial countries are favoring policies to return some governmental activities to the private sector

a roller coaster ride an empirical investigation of the main drivers of the international wheat price over the last decade commodity prices have registered substantial booms and busts marked by extreme volatility wheat in particular one of the main nonoil commodities has registered a roller coaster in price levels which seems to be inconsistent with supply and demand fundamentals to acutely investigate the drivers of wheat prices and quantify their impact a vector error correction model vecm has been used the exogenous variables have been distinguished into four groups market specific factors broad macroeconomic determinants speculative components and weather variables the quadriangulation of the determinants will enable us to better understand the movements in wheat price and identify the specific role of each component the results show that a mix of factors are contributing to wheat price movements including speculation global demand and real effective exchange rate

the imf the world bank and commodity prices a case of shifting sands abstract this paper examines some recent developments in the thinking of both the international monetary fund and the world bank regarding the macroeconomic determinants of commodity prices and the relative importance of secular and cyclical factors in explaining their recent behavior

long waves and economic growth a critical appraisal no one who has examined the dynamics of capitalist economies over long historical periods can doubt that they experience significant long term variations in their aggregate performance the question is whether these long term variations are more than the outcome of a summation of random events and further whether they exhibit recurrent temporal regularities that are sufficiently well behaved to call them long waves in recent years there has been a strong resurgence of interest in such long term movements since their existence could provide a coherent explanation for the poor performance of capitalist economies over the past decade we do not attempt herein to examine the historical evidence for long cycles we have in fact examined this evidence and find it unconvincing although historical data might conceivably lend some plausibility to the notion of long cycles in prices we remain at present sceptical of the case that has so far been made for their presence in real phenomena that is in aggregate output or employment what we offer here instead consistent with our present scepticism is an attempt to examine the economic logic of long waves more specifically we ask what conditions would need to be fulfilled in order for technological innovation to generate long cycles of the periodicity postulated by n d kondratiev and his disciples it is our view that such a theory which might account for the presence of long cycles in some real economic variable would have to fulfill a set of logically interdependent requirements we discuss these requirements under the four categories of causality timing economywide repercussions and recurrence 1 causality

bureaucracy and the publicness of local public goods a reply to gonzalez folsom and mehay readers of the literature on bureaucracy will recall that three years ago gonzalez and mehay 1985 published an empirical piece utilizing a slack maximizing model of bureaucratic behavior which concluded that local public goods are really private goods my own article wyckoff 1988a reached the same conclusion using theoretical means the effect of bureaucracy i argued is to bias our results toward the conclusion that local public goods are public in nature so the empirical results showing the opposite cannot be blamed on bureaucracy now in a surprising comment on my paper gonzalez folsom and mehay 1988 gfm assert that i made methodological errors in the process of establishing my result not content with my agreement with their conclusions gfm demand that i reach these results using their methodology gfm insist that i ignore four special cases in my paper each one of these special cases is discussed below in general i find little merit in their arguments each special case is either obviously unrealistic or relates to a question completely different from those discussed in my paper first of all gfm argue that i fail to note that the voter s tax share t is likely to vary with city population n when this correlation is incorporated into my model they say the reverse of my results could occur but there is a fundamental error in allowing t to vary with n the issue in this paper is not whether large cities spend more than small cities nobody disputes this but whether local public goods are public goods or not what we want to know is whether two people can enjoy a public service just as easily as one by including tax considerations in the calculations as they have done gfm confuse crowding effects with changes in spending caused by changes in tax burdens when t is allowed to vary with n we no longer have a measure of the crowding parameter but a composite which cannot answer the question we originally asked an analogy may help clarify gfm s error gfm s approach is equivalent to suggesting that since wealthy people have larger homes and hence larger tax

a factor model for co movements of commodity prices abstract we fit a factor model to two monthly panels of deflated prices of energy metals and agricultural commodities prices consistently display a tendency to revert towards the factor though the speed of reversion to the factor is slow using both in and out of sample metrics we compare the factor model to that of a no change model and to two simple models that tie changes in commodity prices to percentage change in either global industrial production or the u s dollar the factor model does relatively well at long 12 month horizons in terms of commodities the factor model s performance is best for energy prices worst for metals with agricultural prices falling in between

urban safety in vancouver allocation and production of a congestible public good this paper is a simultaneous exploration of the within city production of safety with the endogenous allocation of public inputs police three issues are central one is an examination of the local government allocation function second is that safety is specified as a congestible public service consistent with club theory finally the model is estimated using a survey measure of crime these innovations are due to a unique data set containing observations by neighborhoods in the city of vancouver the results are crucial for illustrating crime deterrence as well as the local public good nature of safety

cattle as a consistently resilient agricultural commodity this study compares a range of agricultural commodities over periods of varying economic circumstances these commodities are examined over three categories including returns risk and contributi

persistence and cycles in historical oil price data abstract this paper deals with the analysis of two observed features in historical oil price data in particular persistence and cyclicity using monthly data from september 1859 to october 2013 we observe that the series presents two peaks in the spectrum one occurring at the long run or zero frequency and the other at a cyclical frequency these features can be well described in terms of a long memory model that incorporates both peaks in the spectrum it is found that the order of integration at the zero frequency is about 0 6 and the one at the cyclical frequency is substantially smaller of about 0 3 with the length of the cycles being approximately of about 74 periods months which is consistent with the length suggested by the business cycle theory

an examination of preferences for local public sector outputs relatively unique data on the costs of public services for local governments in victoria australia are used to estimate a system of demand equations and to test alternative specifications of the underlying preferences using a translog model symmetry conditions are rejected so the data are not consistent with constrained utility maximization a nonparametric test confirms that result conditional on symmetry tests reject homogeneity and the additivity of preferences and also the separability of personal and property services copyright 1988 by mit press

the publicness of local public goods evidence from ontario municipalities recent studies of local public good provision report publicness parameter estimates of about one indicating private good characteristics this empirical investigation of a wider range of communities obtains parameter estimates of significantly less than one indicating a high degree of publicness exists in smaller municipalities and within the service areas of individual public facilities comprising the supply network in larger centres it is argued that the observed values of the publicness parameters have no normative significance as to the merits of public versus private provision la materialite publique d usage des biens publics locaux resultats d une etude de municipalites ontariennes les etudes recentes sur l approvisionnement de biens publics locaux indiquent des coefficients de materialite publique d usage autour de l unite c est a dire que les biens publics locaux ont de fortes caracteristiques semblables aux biens prives ce memoire presente les resultats d un enquete empirique d un large eventail de communaut6s locales et en arrive a des valeurs pour le coefficient de materialite publique d usage qui sont bien moins que l unite et qui donc indiquent un haut degre de materialite publique d usage dans les petites municipalites mais aussi dans les zones de service d infrastructures particulieres parc bibliotheque poste de pompier etc qui forment le reseau d approvisionnement de biens publics dans les grands centres les auteurs suggerent que les valeurs observees de ces coefficients de materialite publique d usage n ont aucune portee normative et donc ne sauraient arbitrer les merites relatifs d un approvisionnement prive ou public de certains biens

the nonexcludable publicness of primary and secondary public education abstract existing theoretical models of education as with most practical applications of public good theory suggest some form of joint public private financing empirical work has only rarely addressed these theoretical considerations employing individual level observations we model and estimate the private and social demands for public education in a community an ordered probit model with known thresholds is used to obtain unique parameter estimates the individual private and social demands are then employed to construct a measure of the publicness of education at various quantities

primary commodity prices manufactured goods prices and the terms of trade of developing countries what the long run shows the authors revisit in this article the empirical foundation of the alleged secular decline in the prices of primary commodities relative to those of manufactures they use a newly constructed index of commodity prices and two modified indexes of manufactured good prices and find that from 1900 to 1986 the relative prices of all primary commodities fell on trend by 0 5 percent a year and those of nonfuel primary commodities by 0 6 percent a year they thus confirm the sign but not the magnitude of the trend implicit in the work of prebisch but even the more limited secular decline shown by their relative price indexes may be magnified by an incomplete account of quality improvements in manufactures they then show that the evolution of terms of trade of nonfuel primary commodities is not the same as that of the net barter terms of trade of non oil exporting developing countries finally they find that despite the decline that has probably occurred during the current century in the terms of trade of nonfuel primary commodities the purchasing power of total exports of these products has increased considerably similarly the fall that may have occurred after world war ii in the net barter terms of trade of developing countries seems to have been more than compensated for by the steady improvement in their income terms of trade

local public goods and private suppliers musical suburbs replayed abstract this paper deals with the existence of private market suppliers in a standard local public goods model the result of this modification can be a cycling process instigated by rich households rather than poor households the theoretical model provides empirical implications for capitalization studies and policy implications for the provision and financing of local public goods including education

bureaucracy and the divisibility of local public output the empirical results of this paper are derived from a monopoly view of local government decisionmaking in contrast to the competitive view offered by earlier researchers that our results are similar to earlier findings lends additional support to the conclusion that local output is largely private in nature other than park and recreation services there appear to be no economies in consumption for local services nor any economies of density larger cities do not appear to be more efficient than smaller cities 10 of course this result holds only for the sample of cities used here and does not rule out scale economies for communities smaller than those in our sample i e below 25 000 population

the impact of congestion on local public good production abstract this paper models local public goods production where allocation of the publicly provided input occurs simultaneously with production of the final service output the framework models local public goods as developed in club theory where congestion is an increasing function of population central to identification of the model is that the quantities of the input police are differentiated from the produced output safety estimation is across neighborhoods within a single city the results show there is a very low elasticity of congestion on average but safety in some neighborhoods in more congested than private goods

a short note on updating the grilli and yang commodity price index the grilli and yang commodity price index is one of the most widely used commodity price series in the applied economics literature this note provides some practical advice on updating this data series by listing the base period index values identifying relevant data sources and describing a method for computing subindex weights in 1988 enzo grilli and maw cheng yang published their seminal article on the long run development of an index of 24 primary commodity prices gycpi deflated by an index of manufactured goods unit values the sample of average annual primary commodity prices covers about 54 percent of the primary commodity trade in the index reference period 1977 79 the deflators considered for manufacturing prices were the u s manufacturing price index usmpi and the manufacturing unit value index muv 1widely used and discussed the grilli and yang data set has been extended by a number of researchers the data have been employed in a variety of contexts in later studies thus the gycpi data continue to enjoy wide popularity in their own right and as a benchmark for new approaches to empirical studies

a model of commodity prices after sir arthur lewis we develop an idea from arthur lewis paper on unlimited supplies of labor to model the longrun behavior of the prices of primary commodity produced by poor countries commodity supply is assumed infinitely elastic in the long run and the rate of growth of supply responds to the excess of the current price over the long run supply price demand is linked to the level of world income and to the price of the commodity so that price is stationary around its supply price and commodity supply and world income are cointegrated the model is fitted to long run historical data d 2003 elsevier science b v all rights reserved

structural estimation of a model of school choices the boston mechanism vs its alternatives we model household choice of schools under the boston mechanism bm and develop a new method applicable to a broad class of mechanisms to fully solve the choice problem even if it is infeasible

global factors uncertainty weather conditions and energy prices on the drivers of the duration of commodity price cycle phases abstract we investigate the role of global factors in explaining the length of commodity price cycle phases using a continuous time weibull duration model and data for a panel of 33 countries over the period 1980q1 2015q4 we find evidence of increasing constant positive duration dependence for commodity price booms and busts normal time spells global macroeconomic conditions in particular inflation economic policy uncertainty and monetary policy actions significantly affect the duration of all commodity price cycle phases global environmental conditions also impact the duration of commodity price booms with a rise in average temperature rainfall increasing reducing their length a rise in the number of military conflicts around the globe is associated with shorter booms and busts finally we find that a rise in oil prices is linked with longer booms and shorter busts

the 1993 eitc expansion and low skilled single mothers welfare use decision previous studies on low skilled single mothers focus generally either on the binary welfare use or work decision however work among welfare participants has increased steadily since the mid 1990s this study estimates the role of the 1993 earned income tax credit eitc expansion on the decline of welfare caseloads using a bivariate probit model using monthly survey of income and program participation sipp information i find that the 1993 eitc expansion has at least the same effect on reducing welfare use as the welfare reform initiatives moreover the elasticity estimates indicate that single mothers especially those who were not employed and dependent solely on welfare before the expansion were the most responsive to the policy initiatives finally the increase in work among welfare participants is due to the relative ineffectiveness of the policies in reducing the net population of those who are on welfare and work simultaneously

on measuring congestion of local public goods abstract using data for fire protection services this brief paper provides empirical evidence in large part demonstrating the existence of the zoo effect identified by oates the zoo effect implies an upward bias in the measurement of congestion in local public good provision resulting from the lack of a range or quality of service measure the introduction of a quality measure is found to reduce estimates of the degree of congestion in fire protection services

piecewise linear trends and cycles in primary commodity prices we extend the methodology put forward in yamada and yoon 2014 journal of international money and finance 42 c 193 207 to analyze the trend and cyclical behavior of relative primary commodity prices these authors propose the use of the so called l1 filter that renders piecewise linear trends of the underlying data our focus on the calibration of such filter and its implications for the empirical analysis of primary commodity prices especially the interpretation given to the resulting trend we also illustrate how suitably calibrated filters may be used to compute piecewise linear super cycles whose turning points are easy to identify

new developments in trade theory and ldcs abstract this paper surveys the new literature on international trade relevant to the north south controversy in the first part two types of north south models are considered the unequal exchange theory of lewis and emmanuel and the models of dynamic interaction of findlay taylor and others the analysis focuses on the determinants of growth the terms of trade and relative employment in the world economy in the second part the paper reviews the empirical literature on south north and south south trade and the theories of north south technological gaps intra industry trade and external economies finally we analyze the literature on exports and economic growth and the neo classical keynesian and disequilibrium approaches to the theory of import controls

toward a macroeconomics of the medium run these days macroeconomics has become more respectable than it used to be i can remember when many economists liked to say microeconomics is not problematic but i just don t understand macroeconomics there was a definite implication that something must be wrong with macroeconomics not with the observer of course macroeconomics cannot be exact it has to work by rough analogy and empirical compromise maybe a certain raffishness is inevitable most economists work on microeconomic problems with increasing use of new microeconomic data but now it is widely understood that macroeconomics is at the heart of economics it will not do to be snooty about it this centrality will continue for the best possible reason the need to understand current events especially unfavorable ones and to formulate policies even benign neglect is a policy to

revisiting the revisited terms of trade will china make a difference in challenging the conventional wisdom at the time singer and prebisch posited a number of explanations for declining terms of trade of developing economies including both country and product specific factors over the past decade we have begun to witness a simultaneous process of price differentiation within commodities with the prices of some commodities increasing and within manufacturing with the price of many manufactures falling these price changes may reverse the decline in the terms of trade of commodity producers the entry of china into the global market has played an important role in this augmenting the demand for many hard commodities its role as an exporter of manufactures coupled with concentration in global buying may undermine the prices of many manufactures

per capita public expenditures and population size a non parametric analysis using french data based on the median voter model we specify a flexible general framework of the effect of municipality size on per capita public expenditures previous literature has recognized that municipality size should have a non linear effect on the quality of public goods provision and to this end different papers have applied a range of alternative parametric specifications using a very large sample of french communes we are able to estimate the effect of municipality size semi parametrically in contrast with the parametric specifications we find evidence of the u shaped relationship between per capita public expenditures and population which is predicted by theory

welfare the earned income tax credit and the labor supply of single mothers during 1984 1996 welfare and tax policy were changed to encourage work by single mothers the earned income tax credit was expanded welfare benets were cut welfare time limits were added and welfare cases were terminated medicaid for the working poor was expanded as were training programs and child care during this same time period there were unprecedented increases in the employment and hours of single mothers we show that a large share of the increase in work by single mothers can be attributed to the eitc and other tax changes with smaller shares for welfare benet cuts welfare waivers training programs and child care programs