measuring the financial sophistication of households many households invest in ways that are hard to reconcile with standard financial theory and that have been labelled as investment mistakes campbell 2006 calvet campbell and sodini henceforth ccs 2007 there is increasing interest among household finance research ers in the concept of financial sophistication defined as the ability of a household to avoid making such mistakes a growing empirical lit erature documents a cross sectional correlation between household characteristics and invest ment mistakes richer better educated house holds tend to be better diversified marshall blume and irwin friend 1975 ccs 2007 william goetzmann and alok kumar 2008 annette vissing jorgensen 2003 display less inertia julie agnew pierluigi balduzzi and annika sunden 2003 yannis bilias dimitris georgarakos and michael haliassos 2008 campbell 2006 ccs 2009 vissing jorgensen 2002 and have a weaker disposition to hold losing and sell winning stocks ccs 2009 ravi dhar and ning zhu 2006 than other house holds one feature of these earlier papers is that mistakes are investigated one at a time often

investment in financial literacy and saving decisions abstract we present an intertemporal consumption model of investment in financial literacy consumers benefit from such investment because financial literacy allows them to increase the returns on wealth since literacy depreciates over time and has a cost in terms of current consumption the model delivers an optimal investment in literacy furthermore literacy and wealth are determined jointly and are positively correlated over the life cycle the model drives our empirical approach to the analysis of the effect of financial literacy on wealth and saving and indicates that the stock of financial literacy early in life is a valid instrument in the regression of wealth on financial literacy using microeconomic and aggregate data we find strong support for the model s predictions

occupational self selection a human capital approach to sex differences in occupational structure a rich and diverse literature exists concerning the distribution of labor incomes one approach namely that of human capital concentrates on lifetime accumulation paths of earnings capacity units human capital individual variations in human capital imply differences in earnings power thereby yielding strong implications concerning earnings distribution within a population despite its explanatory power the human capital model has been widely criticized one criticism centers on its inability to obtain inferences concerning occupational distribution the purpose of this paper is to alleviate at least some such criticism by applying the hedonic price approach so as to embed occupational choice into the human capital framework the significance is that neoclassical economic theory can be used to obtain implications concerning the determinants of occupational structure excerpt

interrupted work careers depreciation and restoration of human capital the quantitative effects and even the existence of a human capital depreciation phenomenon have been a subject of controversy in the recent literature prior work however was largely cross sectional and the longitudinal dimension if any was retrospective using longitudinal panel data on married women in nls we have now established that real wages at reentry are indeed lower than at the point of labor force withdrawal and the decline in wages is greater the longer the interruption another striking finding is a relatively rapid growth in wages after the return to work this rapid growth appears to reflect the restoration or repair of previously eroded human capital the phenomenon of depreciation and restoration is also visible in data for immigrants to the united states however while immigrants eventually catch up with and often surpass natives returnees from the nonmarket do not fully restore their earnings potential

prices or knowledge what drives demand for financial services in emerging markets this brief summarizes the results of a gender impact evaluation study entitled prices or knowledge what drives demand for financial services in emerging markets conducted in 2008 in indonesia the study observed that financial development is critical for growth but its micro determinants are not well understood financial literacy training has no impact on the probability of opening a bank account although it does have an impact among those with low levels of education and financial literacy a change from 3 to 14 led to a 7 6 percent increase in the probability of owning a bank account the results hold two years after a study funding for the study derived from world bank hbs division of research and faculty development

factor demand and substitution in a developing country energy use in mexican manufacturing a translog cost function is used to estimate elasticities of substitution and factor demand in a number of mexican industries 1966 81 the results vary but factor demand is on average quite price sensitive and elasticities are of the same order of magnitude as in other studies for both developed and developing countries this indicates that factor demand does adapt to price changes even in countries which are dependent on buying technology abroad it also shows that a policy of heavy subsidies to domestic energy consumption is the main reason for growing energy intensity thereby casting some light on the allocation costs of such subsidies

explaining the non causality between energy and economic growth in the u s a multivariate sectoral analysis the rapidly growing literature on the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth has not univocally identified the causal relationship yet we argue that bivariate models which analyze the causality only at the macro level are eventually misleading especially in cases where both variables do not cover the same scope of economic activity after discussing appropriate pairs of variables we investigate granger causality between energy and growth in the u s for the period from 1970 to 2007 for three sectors industry commercial sector transport as well as on the macro level using the recently developed ardl bounds testing approach by pesaran and shin 1999 and pesaran et al 2001 we find evidence for unidirectional long run granger causality in the commercial sector from growth to energy as well as evidence for bi directional long run granger causality in the transport sector the dependence of causality on the level of aggregation is interpreted as evidence for simpsons paradox the choice of control variables is based on findings from the environmental kuznets curve literature we find that controlling for the increasing energy productivity of production as well as trade significantly improves the fit of the bivariate model

projecting the energy pathway using a methodological sequence the case of mexico abstract the relationship between primary energy and economic development tends to be positive however it is a complex relationship for emerging economies we use the energy pathway ep method to 1 examine this relationship 2 introduce its behavioural taxonomy and 3 propose a hybrid methodological sequence that allows to examine the historical context and to forecast the ep we apply our methodology to the mexican case an emerging economy that has had both energy intensive and energy productivity periods and changes in its development model the study was conducted by using data of a 52 year old path and explored the path may have from 2018 onwards our results are as follows first the pathway shows nine behavioural possibilities second we found that the mexican ep responds to structural changes we conclude that for the years following 2018 mexico s path will have a disturbance the main objective will be to avoid unwanted behaviour the key is to improve the relationships among the government the private sector and international agreements in order to continue the sequence of the theory on the relations between energy and development more studies are needed under a systematic analytical framework applied to both other countries and comparative studies

sex related wage differentials and women s interrupted labor careers the chicken or the egg wage differentials between men and women are often attributed to differences in on the job training the lower investment of women being explained by their plans to interrupt their careers for family reasons career interruptions however are often explained by low wages to trace this interrelationship i adopt a simultaneous equations approach trying to explain wages planned separations on the job training and the skill intensity of the job simultaneously skill intensity is found to be a key variable in the explanation of the wage differential traditional theory is hard pressed to explain the sex related differences in this variable

atrophy rates in male and female occupations abstract this paper re examines atrophy rates in female and male occupations the innovation is to examine recent hometime as opposed to career hometime consistent with human capital theory married women incur lower penalties for recent hometime in female occupations

match bias from earnings imputation in the current population survey the case of imperfect matching this article examines match bias arising from earnings imputation wage equation parameters are estimated from mixed samples of workers reporting and not reporting earnings the latter assigned earnings of donors regressions including attributes not used as imputation match criteria e g union are severely biased match bias also arises with attributes used as match criteria but matched imperfectly imperfect matching on schooling age flattens earnings profiles within education age groups and creates jumps across groups assuming conditional missing at random a general analytic expression correcting match bias is derived and compared to alternatives reweighting a respondent only sample proves an attractive approach

individual preferences monetary gambles and stock market participation a case for narrow framing we argue that narrow framing whereby an agent who is offered a new gamble evaluates that gamble in isolation may be a more important feature of decision making than previously realized our starting point is the evidence that people are often averse to a small independent gamble even when the gamble is actuarially favorable we find that a surprisingly wide range of utility functions including many nonexpected utility specifications have trouble explaining this evidence but that this difficulty can be overcome by allowing for narrow framing our analysis makes predictions as to what kinds of preferences can most easily address the stock market participation puzzle

planning and financial literacy how do women fare many older us households have done little or no planning for retirement and there is a substantial population that seems to undersave for retirement of particular concern is the relative position of older women who are more vulnerable to old age poverty due to their longer longevity this paper uses data from a special module we devised on planning and financial literacy in the 2004 health and retirement study it shows that women display much lower levels of financial literacy than the older population as a whole in addition women who are less financially literate are also less likely to plan for retirement and be successful planners these findings have important implications for policy and for programs aimed at fostering financial security at older ages

trends in the male female wage gap the 1980s compared with the 1970s 1 introduction an interesting pattern emerges when contrasting men s and women s wage growth in the 1970s and 1980s from 1979 to 1989 female wages grew 1 7 per annum faster than male wages this wage growth in the 1980s resulted in a 17 narrowing of the gender wage gap on the other hand from 1969 to 1979 female wages grew at a rate only 0 39 per year faster than male wages resulting in very little narrowing of the gender wage gap blau 1998 as noted by smith and ward 1989 these contrasting trends puzzled many because it is well known that female work behavior shot up more dramatically in the 1970s than in the 1980s if female wage growth is related to increasing labor force activity one would have expected the male female wage gap to narrow more in the 1970s than in the 1980s the purpose of this paper is to identify some of the reasons why the male female wage gap narrowed more quickly in the 1980s than in the 1970s despite a deceleration of the growth in female labor force activity in the 1980s what appears to be the case is that predominantly younger and less experienced females entered the labor force in the 1970s the entry of women with relatively little human capital brought down the growth in women s average human capital o neill 1985 so that despite the upsurge of women s labor force participation in the 1970s women s average human capital relative to men s increased more slowly in the 1970s than in the 1980s this relatively slower growth in women s human capital appears to have played itself out in the 1980s both because the number of women joining the labor force slowed and because women s labor force attachment as measured by the proportion of potential work years actually worked increased blau 1998 with these trends average female human capital increased in the 1980s resulting in greater overall wage gains because of the stark differences between the 1970s and 1980s this paper concentrates on distinguishing the factors that contribute to men s and women s wage growth in the two decades despite the substantial literature on the male female wage gap the interdecade difference in the trend has not been adequately examined in what follows this paper uses the panel study of income dynamics psid to illustrate the effects of the demographic changes alluded to above 1 first it presents wage trends for the 1970s and 1980s second it provides direct measures of changes in human capital growth within each decade third to illustrate the importance of these demographic trends especially how new young labor market entrants bring down wages it shows that the higher relative female wage growth in the 1980s is reduced and the relatively slower female wage growth in the 1970s is enhanced when one controls for individual human capital characteristics these effects are illustrated first by including actual experience type variables in a regression whose coefficients measure wage growth and second by eliminating new entrants from 1970s and 1980s regression analysis the paper shows that with these controls increases in female average growth in both the 1970s and 1980s were more comparable than previously thought 2 recent literature on trends in the male female wage gap this is not the first paper to recognize the trend in male female wage convergence o neill 1985 blau and beller 1988 smith and ward 1989 goldin 1990 katz and murphy 1992 wellington 1993 o neill and polachek 1993 blau and kahn 1997 and blau 1998 all note that women s wages have risen relative to men smith and ward 1989 find that female relative wages rose between 1920 and 1980 when adjusting for worker skills goldin 1990 piecing together various data sources finds a similar long term narrowing according to her the ratio of female to male earnings in the economy as a whole rose from 0 46 to 0 56 during the period 1890 to 1930 but was virtually stable from 1950 to around 1980 p

structural change and technology choice energy use in mexican manufacturing industry 1970 1981 abstract this paper analyses industrial energy use in a country that has experienced falling instead of rising energy prices mexico subsidizes domestic energy consumption with the avowed purpose of stimulating industrialization methods are developed to distinguish the effects of technology choice from the effects of changing industrial structure and are then used to analyse the increased energy intensity of manufacturing industry 1970 1981 the increase is found to depend entirely on the adoption of more energy using technology whereas the changes in output structure have had little or no effect there has been a slight bias in favour of the less energy intensive sectors

financial literacy and its consequences evidence from russia during the financial crisis the ability of consumers to make informed financial decisions improves their ability to develop sound personal finance this paper uses a panel data set from russia an economy in which household debt has grown at an astounding rate to examine the importance of financial literacy and its effects on behavior the paper studies both the financial and real consequences of financial illiteracy even though consumer borrowing increased very rapidly in russia only 41 of respondents demonstrate an understanding of interest compounding and only 46 can answer a simple question about inflation financial literacy is positively related to participation in financial markets and negatively related to the use of informal sources of borrowing moreover individuals with higher financial literacy are significantly less likely to report experiencing a negative income shock during 2009 and have greater availability of unspent income and higher spending capacity the relationship between financial literacy and availability of unspent income is higher in 2009 suggesting that financial literacy may better equip individuals to deal with macroeconomic shocks

the effects of financial education in the workplace evidence from a survey of households abstract we use a novel household survey to investigate the effects of employer based financial education on personal saving we explore cross sectional relations between the availability of employer based financial education and various measures of asset accumulation and we interpret these patterns in light of various potentially confounding factors our findings favor the hypothesis that employer based financial education stimulates saving both in general and for retirement

behavioral obstacles in the annuity market as baby boomers enter retirement they will look to the investment industry for ways to generate income from accumulated savings why most retirees do not purchase longevity insurance in the form of lifetime annuities is a long standing puzzle mental accounting and loss aversion can explain the unpopularity of annuities by framing them as risky gambles where potential losses loom larger than potential gains moreover behavioral anomalies can explain the prevalence of period certain annuities which guarantee a minimum number of payouts finally investors may prefer longevity annuities purchased today to begin payouts in the future to immediate annuities because investors overweight the small probability of living long enough to receive large future payouts

factors shaping aggregate energy intensity trend for industry energy intensity versus product mix understanding the mechanisms of change of energy consumption in industry has attracted much attention since the 1973 world oil crisis a popular line of research has been to decompose changes in the aggregate energy intensity of industry to give the relative impacts arising from energy intensity change and product mix change using a decomposition technique many empirical studies covering a large number of countries have been reported the main objective of this paper is to put together the empirical results reported in these studies in a coherent framework and identify possible systematic features of particular interest are the basic trends in this line of research the relative importance of energy intensity change and product mix change possible variations over time and between country groups in the energy impacts of these changes and inconsistencies in findings among studies an overview of the decomposition technique including its strengths weaknesses and role in industrial energy consumption studies is also presented

what goes up recent trends in china s energy consumption since 1996 china s energy output has dropped by 17 while primary energy use has fallen by 4 driven almost entirely by shrinking output from coal mines and declining direct use since china is the world s second largest emitter of greenhouse gases it is important to understand the sources of this apparent transformation and whether it portends a permanent change in patterns of energy use this remarkable reversal of the long term expansion of energy use has occurred even as the economy has continued to grow albeit more slowly than in the early 1990s generation of electric power has risen implying a steep fall in end uses particularly in industry available information points to a variety of forces contributing to this phenomenon including rapid improvements in coal quality structural changes in industry shutdowns of factories in both the state owned and non state segments of the economy improvements in end use efficiency and greater use of gas and electricity in households a combination of slowing economic growth industrial restructuring broader economic system reforms and environmental and energy efficiency policies has apparently led to at least a temporary decline in and perhaps a long term reduction in the growth of energy use and therefore greenhouse gas emissions

the role of information and social interactions in retirement plan decisions evidence from a randomized experiment this paper analyzes a randomized experiment to shed light on the role of information and social interactions in employees decisions to enroll in a tax deferred account tda retirement plan within a large university the experiment encouraged a random sample of employees in a subset of departments to attend a benee ts information fair organized by the university by promising a monetary reward for attendance the experiment multiplied by more than e ve the attendance rate of these treated individuals relative to controls and tripled that of untreated individuals within departments where some individuals were treated tda enrollment e ve and eleven months after the fair was signie cantly higher in departments where some individuals were treated than in departments where nobody was treated however the effect on tda enrollment is almost as large for individuals in treated departments who did not receive the encouragement as for those who did we provide three interpretations differential treatment effects social network effects and motivational reward effects to account for these results

economic reform energy and development the case of mexican manufacturing abstract given increasing concern over global climate change and national security there is a burgeoning interest in examining the relationship between economic growth and energy use in developed and developing countries more specifically decoupling energy use per unit of gross domestic product gdp has fast come to be seen as in the interests of national economies and the world as a whole recent attention has been paid to the dramatic decreases in the energy intensity of the chinese economy which fell by 55 between 1975 and 1995 do other developing economies follow similar trajectories this paper examines the energy intensity of the mexican economy for the period 1988 1998 although the long term trend in mexican energy intensity is rising the energy intensity of the mexican economy began to decline in 1988 this paper explores the factors that have contributed to this reduction diminishing mexican energy use per unit of gdp has been driven by significant decreases in industrial energy intensity we show that these changes have resulted from changes in the composition of mexican industrial structure and technological change

don t lapse into temptation a behavioral explanation for policy surrender abstract many policyholders surrender their life insurance policies early leading to substantial monetary losses for private households surrender can be explained rationally if it constitutes the last resort providing liquidity in the event of an urgent need of cash yet we find clear evidence in german panel data that for more than half of all surrendered contracts investors had cheaper options available to provide the required liquidity this finding demonstrates that there must be other factors influencing this important life decision we provide a behavioral explanation focusing on the role of individual decision heuristics financial literacy and financial advice in particular we show that financial literacy and financial advice can mitigate the behavioral temptation to lapse while the tendency to rely on heuristics increases lapse probability

the biophysical perspective of a middle income economy material flows in mexico abstract we analyse natural resource use dynamics in the mexican economy during the last three decades despite low and uneven economic growth the extraction and use of materials in the mexican economy has continuously increased during the last 30 years in this period population growth rather than economic growth was the main driving force for biophysical growth in addition fundamental changes have taken place in the primary sectors in manufacturing and in household consumption and these are reflected in an increasing emphasis on the use of fossil fuels and construction materials mexico s economy has been strongly influenced by international trade since the country commenced competing in international markets in the 1970s mexico mainly exported primary resources this pattern has changed and manufactured goods now have a much greater importance due to a boom in assembling industries in contrast with other latin american countries mexico has achieved a diversification of production moving towards technology intensive products and a better mix in its export portfolio however crude oil exports still represent the single most important export good mexico s material consumption is still well below the oecd average but is growing fast and the current resource use patterns may well present serious social and environmental problems to the medium and long term sustainability of mexico s economy and community information on natural resource use and resource productivity could provide valuable guidance for economic policy planning in mexico

the role of commitment in dynamic contracts evidence from life insurance we use data on life insurance contracts to study the properties of long term contracts in a world where buyers cannot commit to a contract the data are especially suited to test a theory of dynamic contracting since they include information on the entire proele of future premiums all the patterns in the data et the theoretical predictions of a model with symmetric learning and one sided com

exponential growth bias and household finance exponential growth bias is the pervasive tendency to linearize exponential functions when assessing them intuitively we show that exponential growth bias can explain two stylized facts in household finance the tendency to underestimate an interest rate given other loan terms and the tendency to underestimate a future value given other investment terms bias matters empirically more biased households borrow more save less favor shorter maturities and use and benefit more from financial advice conditional on a rich set of household characteristics there is little evidence that our measure of exponential growth bias merely proxies for broader financial sophistication what drives household financial decisions the canonical economic model assumes that consumers choose to consume borrow or save based on their preferences their expectations and the costs and benefits of borrowing and saving a growing body of work applies insights from psychology to enrich specifications of three of the model s key pieces preferences expectations and problem solving conditional on parameter values 1 in this paper we bring psychological evidence to bear on a fourth specification issue how consumers perceive the costs and benefits of borrowing and saving we begin by tying together existing and new evidence on these cost perceptions to show that most consumers err systematically when given information commonly available in the market on the saving side consumers display future value bias a systematic tendency to underestimate a future value given

estimating risk preferences from deductible choice we develop a structural econometric model to estimate risk preferences from data on deductible choices in auto insurance contracts we account for adverse selection by modeling unobserved heterogeneity in both risk claim rate and risk aversion we find large and skewed heterogeneity in risk attitudes in addition women are more risk averse than men risk aversion exhibits a u shape with respect to age and proxies for income and wealth are positively associated with absolute risk aversion finally unobserved heterogeneity in risk aversion is greater than that of risk and as we illustrate has important implications for insurance pricing

how does household portfolio diversification vary with financial literacy and financial advice household investment mistakes are an important concern for researchers and policymakers alike portfolio underdiversification ranks among those mistakes that are potentially most costly however its roots and empirical importance are poorly understood i estimate quantitatively meaningful diversification statistics and investigate their relationship with key variables nearly all households that score high on financial literacy or rely on professionals or private contacts for advice achieve reasonable investment outcomes compared to these groups households with below median financial literacy that trust their own decision making capabilities lose an expected 50 bps on average all group differences stem from the top of the loss distribution