rising residential rents in chinese mega cities the role of monetary policy although there have been a large number of studies carried out on fluctuations in housing prices little is known about what causes changes in residential rents which are inextricably intertwined with urban living standards this is especially noteworthy in chinese cities which are now being challenged by the housing market frenzies shift share analysis is proposed to evaluate all possible triggers of residential rent inflation in three cities during the 2001 2013 period which covers two distinct monetary policy regimes in china it is found that the recent rise in residential rent comes as a result of aggregate inflation associated with an expansionary monetary policy since the 2008 global financial crisis and an all encompassing and stable policy stance should therefore be adopted

the inequalities of public utility products in china from the perspective of the atkinson index abstract the chinese households make up approximately a quarter of the world s total compared with its size of population china s reserves of natural resources are relatively limited with the actual concerns about sustainable development in china we should pay more attention to the unequal distribution of energy which may result low efficiency and wasting of energy therefore how to best allocate the scarce public utility products pups for the household usage should be closely addressed in terms of equity and efficiency based on the micro household level data from crecs which investigated in 2013 in different scales city all over the country we measure the distribution of pups consumption quantitatively and evaluate the inequality of household income expenditures on electricity gas and water in the china s residential sector by using the atkinson index the results show that the atkinson index of households total pups consumption in medium scale city is equal to 0 0261 which is 83 0 higher than that of large scale city and 35 6 higher than that of small scale city it indicates that the inequalities of pups and income are greater in medium scale cities than in large scale and small scale cities considering the sustainability of pups we suggest further reform in china s public utility sectors the government should take more consideration on equality and efficiency of distribution and ensure that people have equal living standards especially for the low income households who serve as the main anchor for the sustainable development of china

behavioral heterogeneity in dynamic search situations theory and experimental evidence abstract this paper presents models for search behavior and provides experimental evidence that behavioral heterogeneity in search is linked to heterogeneity in individual preferences observed search behavior is more consistent with a new model that assumes dynamic updating of utility reference points than with models that are based on expected utility maximization specifically reference point updating and loss aversion play a role for more than a third of the population the findings are of practical relevance as well as of interest for researchers who incorporate behavioral heterogeneity into models of dynamic choice behavior in for example consumer economics labor economics finance and decision theory

a decomposition analysis of the trend in uk income inequality post war britain has experienced a number of dramatic demographic and social changes that have undoubtedly influenced the distribution of income there has been a rise in the number of pensioners whose incomes are relatively low a considerable increase in the number of young and old households living on their own and a remarkable expansion in the proportion of working wives the potential importance of these structural changes suggests that their impact on the income distribution needs to be examined systematically before any attempt can be made to interpret the observed trend in overall income inequality adequately the method usually adopted for this purpose attempts to create a comparable time series of distributions based on the structural characteristics pertaining in one particular year for example if we wished to investigate the effect of shifts in the age structure of the population this approach would disaggregate the distribution in one year tl and estimate what the distribution would have been like if the age structure had been the same as that observed in some other year to on the assumption that other distributional characteristics such as ageincome differentials and inequality within age groups remain invariant to this demographic change the comparison between the actual distribution at t1 and the constructed distribution at t1 with to s age structure is taken to indicate the impact of changes in the age structure over the period concerned this comparison can be presented in terms of quantile shares summary measures of inequality or the entire lorenz curves this approach known as shift share analysis or standardising the inequality series see semple i975 love and wolfson i976 dinwiddy and reed i977 royal commission i977 rowley and henderson i978 macleod and horner i980 is perfectly adequate for simple and straightforward structural changes when several changes are occurring simultaneously however it becomes difficult to identify the contribution of the individual factors and to assess their relative importance to the overall trend in inequality furthermore the combined impact of several structural influences will not in general sum up to the inequality change requiring explanation the purpose of this paper is to propose an alternative method of analysing

changing income inequalities within and between nations new evidence fresh data sources on cross national income are examined to document recent changes in the composition of world income inequality within and between nations new evidence shows that during the 1980s and 1990s the composition of world income inequality experienced a fundamental change characterized by the diminishing significance of between nation income differences and the growing prominence of within nation inequalities two competing trends account for this change 1 steady growth in the average level of income inequality within nations and 2 a decline in income inequality between nations these recent trends signify a reversal in one of the major legacies of the industrial revolution the internationalization of world income inequality across national borders the findings raise important questions for future studies of cross national inequality and development

how does globalisation affect regional inequality within a developing country evidence from china developing countries are increasingly concerned about effects of globalisation on regional inequality this paper develops an empirical method for decomposing the contributions of two major driving forces of globalisation foreign trade and foreign direct investment fdi on regional inequality and applies it to china even after controlling for many other factors globalisation is still found to be an important factor contributing to the widening regional inequality the paper ends by investigating the role of factor market segmentations in aggravating the distributional effect of changing regional comparative advantages in the process of globalisation

income inequality within and across counties in rural china 1988 and 1995 abstract using household data from samples covering 18 provinces in 1988 and 1995 income inequality within and between counties in rural china is assessed the approach enables us to aggregate average income and income inequality to the levels of provinces and the three regions comprising eastern central and western china most of income inequality in rural china in 1995 was found to be spatial and the uneven development of mean income across counties stood for most but not all of the rapid increase in income inequality mean income of the three regions diverged most forcefully

urban biased policies and rising income inequality in china since the start of economic reforms in 1978 china has experienced the largest increase in income inequality of all countries for which comparable data are available according to the world bank 1997 china s gini coefficient increased from 28 2 in 1981 to 38 8 in 1995 based on official survey data another study that used internationally standard definitions for incomes estimated china s gini ratio at 38 2 in 1988 and 45 2 in 1995 a level that already surpassed many developing economies in asia azizur khan and carl riskin 1998 are these income inequality changes the consequence of institutional reforms that replaced egalitarian rewards with work incentives employment contracts and labor mobility this paper uses household survey data collected by china s state statistical bureau ssb to investigate the sources and causes of this rising inequality by analyzing gini ratios and generalized entropy measures i decompose the overall inequality into three sectoral components i inequality within rural areas ii inequality within urban areas and iii sectoral disparity the data indicate that increases in rural urban income differentials have been the driving factor behind the rising overall inequality in china i argue that urbanbiased policies and institutions including labor mobility restrictions welfare systems and financial policies of inflation subsidies and investment credits to the urban sector are responsible for the long term rural urban divide and the recent increases in disparity

china s uneven progress against poverty while the incidence of extreme poverty in china fell dramatically over 1980 2001 progress was uneven over time and across provinces rural areas accounted for the bulk of the gains to the poor though migration to urban areas helped the pattern of growth mattered rural economic growth was far more important to national poverty reduction than urban economic growth agriculture played a far more important role than the secondary or tertiary sources of gross domestic product gdp rising inequality within the rural sector greatly slowed poverty reduction provinces starting with relatively high inequality saw slower progress against poverty due both to lower growth and a lower growth elasticity of poverty reduction taxation of farmers and inflation hurt the poor external trade had little short term impact

redistribution and government tactical behaviour an analysis of local public expenditure in china after the 1994 tax reform during the last few decades significant changes have affected chinese public finance in 1994 a major tax reform was undertaken and central local sharing arrangements were deeply modified the evolutions of regional public expenditure in the years following the reform deserve to be analysed the issue is relevant for two additional reasons first income inequality is becoming a relevant issue and it is therefore important to understand whether the chinese government is pursuing some kind of redistribution policy second an analysis of the local expenditure dynamics might provide some important information concerning the objectives and the behaviour of the chinese government the article considers a set of structural political and socio economic variables to analyse the determinants of local public expenditure in 30 chinese regions over the period 1995 2007 the results reveal that redistribution seems not to be a priority for the chinese government expenditure is higher in richer and more internationally open regions and the only redistribution evidence that emerges is related to urban rural disparities

rural urban disparity and sectoral labour allocation in china this study examines china s rural urban segmentation and its causes in the context of economic reforms household survey and aggregate data indicate a v shaped process in which rural urban consumption and income differentials decreased between 1978 and 1985 but then have continually increased to historically high levels this sectoral division is consistent with production function estimates based on provincial data that reveal higher labour productivity in urban state owned industries than in rural industries and agriculture to explain the v shaped change we argue that the precedent of successful rural reforms raised farmers relative earnings but the remaining obstacles to an efficient sectoral allocation of labour have prevented china from eliminating dualism recent financial policies consisting of urban price subsidies and increased investment credits have also had influential distribution effects that are biased against the rural sector

strategies and evolution in the minority game a multi round strategy experiment abstract minority games are a stylized description of strategic situations with both coordination and competition these games are widely studied using either simulations or laboratory experiments simulations can show the dynamics of aggregate behavior but the results of such simulations depend on the type of strategies used so far experiments provided little guidance on the type of strategies people use because the set of possible strategies is very large we therefore use a multi round strategy method experiment to directly elicit people s strategies between rounds participants can adjust their strategy and test the performance of possible new strategies against strategies from the previous round strategies gathered in the experiment are subjected to an evolutionary competition the strategies people use are very heterogeneous although aggregate outcomes resemble the symmetric nash equilibrium the strategies that survive evolutionary competition achieve much higher levels of coordination

nonparametric estimation of the effects of advertising the case of lydia pinkham this article reexamines some of the issues raised subsequent to the classical research by palda 1964 we use a nonparametric estimation method that allows us to incorporate both seasonal and smoothness constraints to estimate the parameters of a demand function using monthly data on lydia pinkham s vegetable compound the analysis indicates that the parameters of the estimated demand equation are not constant throughout the long period of the data which covers the whole life cycle of the product

changes in the world distribution of income between 1950 and 1977 trends in the world distribution of income are much discussed and philosophised about the issue of increasing economic inequality among nonsocialist countries in the post war period is central to the debate about the international economic order in i969 the pearson commission report was already pointing to the widening gap between the developed and developing countries as a central issue of our time and was proposing the reduction of that gap as the main objective of international co operation according to that report gnp per capita had increased between i960 and i967 at annual rates of 2 5 and 3 6 in developing and developed countries respectively morawetz i978 found that the gap between the two sets of countries rose from i 2 6 fold in i950 to i3 2 fold in i975 other authors see a more complicated picture atkinson i975 for instance has argued that although the share of poor countries in world income probably declined between i950 and i970 that of the countries at the middle of the world distribution probably increased 2 what may be a mere assessment of relative growth performances among nonsocialist countries becomes a basic theoretical element in the radical stream of economic literature for authors like amin i974 emmanuel i972 and frank i978 the capitalist mode of development necessarily leads to the rich countries of the centre becoming richer and poor countries of the periphery becoming poorer in a degree depending on their involvement in international trade for them a widening gap between developed and developing countries is simply the statistical confirmation of an unavoidable consequence of the national and international capitalist system in the latter perspective the issue at stake is of such importance that the contrast between the abundance of theoretical literature and the lack of empirical work is striking the few existing studies of changes in world distribution provide an inadequate picture intra country income distributions are not taken into account observation periods do not exceed i5 years 8 for andic and peacock i96i and for beckerman and bacon i970 i5 for kirman and tomasini i969 socialist as well as some non socialist countries are excluded and national incomes are converted to u s dollars at official exchange rates 3 finally none of these studies covers the i970s although several shocks which might have affected world distribution occurred during that decade for the non socialist countries to which they refer the andic peacock and beckerman bacon studies found the gini coefficient almost constant over

a strategy experiment in dynamic asset pricing this study presents a strategy experiment in a simple dynamic asset pricing model where the current market equilibrium asset price is determined by aggregated individual expectations of next period s price after participating in an introductory laboratory experiment on expectation formation participants formulate a complete forecasting strategy these strategies are programmed and markets are simulated participants receive feedback from the results of these simulations and can adapt their strategy four rounds are played and the entire experiment lasts eight weeks a final laboratory experiment compares predictions of participants with the predictions of the submitted strategy we find that most of the participants submit complicated strategies and that strategies become more complicated over the rounds most markets converge to a steady state price only after many periods if at all the number of converging price sequences increases over the rounds these results suggest in general slow convergence and learning of the subjects over the rounds even in a stationary environment learning the correct fundamental price level turns out to be difficult an important part of the non convergence seems to be caused not by individual strategies but by the interaction of several strategies from the final experiment we conclude that the strategies are a good representation of what participants do in a laboratory experiment

wealth accumulation and distribution in urban china abstract under socialism it was neither possible nor necessary to accumulate significant levels of personal wealth the acceleration of economic reform in the last decade however has brought dramatic increases in income and investment opportunities reform has also reduced social protections provided by the state welfare system in response to these changes between 1995 and 2002 urban average real household net total wealth increased by 24 per annum there is a concern however that those accumulating wealth are the economic and political elites while those unable to accumulate wealth are the most vulnerable workers who are losing social protection using chinese urban survey data of 1995 1999 and 2002 this article investigates this issue it is found that households with above average income have accumulated more wealth than their poorer counterparts in addition a large proportion of this wealth accumulation may be from nonearned sources such as buying larger and better housing at highly su

do migrants really save more understanding the impact of remittances on savings in rural china abstract this article studies the impact of remittances on the savings behaviour of rural households in china using a primary survey undertaken by the authors in 2006 allowing for endogeneity and left censoring of remittances we find that the marginal propensity to save out of remittances is well below half of that out of other sources of incomes moreover we find no evidence of any direct effect of remittances on either capital input or gross output of farm production these findings are robust with respect to alternative definition of savings and are in line with recent studies which conclude that remittances are largely used for consumption purposes by rural chinese households

the contingent value of social resources entrepreneurs use of debt financing sources in western china this study shows that entrepreneurs use of debt financing sources is conditioned by the resources embedded in their social networks more business or political contacts increase entrepreneurs probability of using formal financial sources and more urban ties increases their probability of using informal sources however the effects of business and bureaucratic ties are contingent on community level institutional trust and on firms age business ties have greater positive impact on the probability of using formal financial sources for older firms and for those in regions with a higher level of institutional trust while the impact of bureaucratic ties on these firms is weaker

advertising quality and sales this paper investigates claims that firm specific effects in advertising sales models can be attributed to a positive correlation between advertising and product quality using a standard koyck transformation on an unbalanced panel dataset of uk firms the implied long lasting effects of advertising disappear when firm specific effects are taken into account this conclusion is robust to various econometric approaches however when the firm specific effects are retrieved they are found to correlate strongly with mean advertising there is no discernible link between the firm specific effects and whether a firm perceives quality to be an important form of competition in its market the results give no support to the idea that advertising affects sales through associated product quality they are consistent with the persistence of advertising within firms over time

true measures of gdp and convergence widely used purchasing power parity comparisons of per capita gdp are not true quantity indexes and are subject to systematic substitution bins this bias may distort measurement of convergence and divergence extending varian s nonparametric construction of a true index gives the set of true indexes including the new ideal afriat index these indexes are utility consistent and independent of arbitrary reference price vectors we establish bounds on the dispersion of true multilateral indexes hence bounds on convergence international price indexes understate both true gdp dispersion and where prices are converging over time the rate of true quantity convergence

the growing gap between rich and poor countries a proposed explanation abstract making use of data in the penn world table mark 5 this study seeks to explain the widely reported pattern of increasing divergence of per capita income levels between high and low income countries and among low income countries tests based on one on one comparisons of real growth in 1960 1988 with starting levels of income per capita imply that increasing divergence of per capita income levels was largely due to differences between population growth and labor force growth that varied with income level further evidence is provided in the form of crosscountry growth regressions in which with population growth divided into labor force growth and the amount by which population growth exceeds labor force growth only the part of population growth that represents changes in the dependency ratio is closely linked to long term growth

how do experts forecast sovereign spreads this paper assesses how forecasting experts form their expectations about future government bond spreads using monthly survey forecasts for france italy and the united kingdom between january 1993 and october 2014 we test whether respondents consider the expected evolution of the fiscal balance and other economic fundamentals to be significant drivers of the expected bond yield differential over a benchmark german 10 year bond our main result is that a projected improvement of the fiscal outlook significantly reduces expected sovereign spreads this suggests that credible fiscal plans affect market experts expectations and reduce the pressure on sovereign bond markets in addition we show that expected fundamentals generally play a more important role in explaining forecasted spreads compared to realized spreads

where did all the remittances go understanding the impact of remittances on consumption patterns in rural china we focus on the impact of migrants remittances on consumption patterns in china using a large homogenous sample of rural households surveyed in 2001 and 2004 we find that remittances are spent on nonhousing consumption expenditures at the margin virtually dollar for dollar when we instrument remittances and local employed earnings using proxies of social networks our findings are robust to intra household division of labour and to fixed effect for the county in which the respondents are registered these results imply that rural households largely take remittances as permanent income and are consistent with the prevalence of circular and repeat migration in china

double auction dynamics structural effects of non binding price controls in competitive equilibrium non binding price controls that is price floors below and ceilings above the equilibrium should not affect market outcomes but in laboratory experiments they do we build a simple dynamic model of double auction markets with zero intelligence zi computer traders that accounts for many though not all of the discrepancies between the data and the walrasian tatonnement predictions the success of the model in organizing the data and in isolating various consequences of price controls shows that the simple zi model is a powerful tool to gain insights into the dynamics of market institutions

public investment and regional inequality in rural china this paper develops a method for decomposing the contributions of various types of public investment to regional inequality and applies the method to rural china public investments are found to have contributed to production growth in both the agricultural and rural non agricultural sectors but their contributions to regional inequality have differed by type of investment and the region in which they are made all types of investment in the least developed western region reduce regional inequality whereas additional investments in the coastal and central regions worsen regional inequality investments in rural education and agricultural r d in the western region have the largest and most favorable impacts on reducing regional inequality

income inequality in the people s republic of china trends determinants and proposed remedies the issue of income inequality in the people s republic of china prc has attracted world wide attention leading to a sizable literature this paper attempts to provide a nonexhaustive literature review of the prc s inequality trends and determinants and suggested government interventions it discusses profiles of income inequality along three dimensions interhousehold disparity regional divides and urban rural gaps this is followed by an exploration of the driving forces behind rising inequality including the notorious hukou system policy biases location or geographic factors globalization and education finally the paper summarizes and proposes government interventions for containing or reducing income inequality in the prc important areas for future research are also suggested in the final section of the paper

coordination on bubbles in large group asset pricing experiments abstract we present a large group experiment in which participants predict the price of an asset whose realization depends on the aggregation of individual forecasts the markets consist of 21 to 32 participants a group size larger than in most experiments multiple large price bubbles occur in six out of seven markets the bubbles emerge even faster than in smaller markets individual forecast errors do not cancel out at the aggregate level but participants coordinate on a trend following prediction strategy that gives rise to large bubbles the observed price patterns can be captured by a behavioral heuristics switching model with heterogeneous expectations

migration and incomes in source communities a new economics of migration perspective from china the objective of this paper is to understand the effects of china s migration on source communities and to discuss their policy implications we draw from new economics of labor migration nelm theory to understand how migration and migrant remittances can relax or tighten market constraints in china s rural economy using simultaneous equation econometric techniques and household survey data from china we estimate net sectorspecific effects of migration on rural household income focusing on farm production and self employment our econometric findings indicate that the loss of labor to migration has a negative effect on household cropping income in source areas however we provide evidence that remittances sent home by migrants positively compensate for this lost labor effect contributing to household incomes directly and indirectly by stimulating crop and possibly self employment production this finding offers evidence in support of the nelm hypothesis that remittances loosen constraints on production in the imperfect market environments characterizing rural areas in less developed countries taking into account both the multiple effects of migration and the change in household size participating in migration increases household per capita income between 14 and 30 percent migration and incomes in source communities a new economics of migration perspective from china china is experiencing the largest peacetime flow of labor out of agriculture ever witnessed in world history solinger 1999 rozelle et al 1999 despite the rapid expansion of labor migration china s work force is still disproportionately employed in agriculture compared to other countries at similar levels of per capita gdp taylor and martin 2001 hence as china s economy continues to expand the flow of labor to urban areas will continue and even accelerate johnson 1999 the massive flow of labor away from farms has intensified research interest in china s migration in recent years however as in the broader literature on migration in less developed countries most recent studies on china s migration have focused on determining the size and composition of the labor flow macroeconomic implications of increased migration and the effects of migration on urban areas zhao 1999 yang 1999 1997 less emphasis has been placed on researching the effects of migration on the rural communities that migrants leave even though evidence shows that the rural household in the village of origin is typically the central concern of all those involved in migration both those who leave and those who stay behind exceptions include wang and zuo 1999 bai 2001 moreover the recent increase in migration has left policy makers particularly concerned regarding the way source communities will be affected moa 1999 they are concerned that as labor flows away from farms food production and crop income will decline potentially threatening china s food security furthermore policy makers are concerned about the increasing gap between urban and rural household incomes if migration exacerbates this gap some fear that as it grows rural residents eventually will flood cities ill equipped to absorb them others fear that discontent over a rising urban rural income gap could even spill over into political unrest yang 1999 because china s markets and other modern economic institutions are still relatively undeveloped migration may play a pivotal role in creating or overcoming constraints caused by the lack of well functioning markets and or institutions knight and song 1999 benjamin and brandt 2000 the new economics of labor migration nelm literature analyzes migration as a household decision rather than as an individual decision stark 1991 the nelm hypothesizes that rural households facing imperfect market environments decide

china s income distribution 1985 2001 we employ a new method to estimate china s income distribution using publicly available interval summary statistics we examine rural urban and overall income distributions from 1985 to 2001 we show how the distributions change directly and we examine trends in inequality using an intertemporal decomposition of aggregate inequality we determine that increases in inequality within rural and urban sectors and the growing rural urban income gap have been equally responsible for the growth in overall inequality over the last two decades however the rural urban gap has played an increasingly important role in recent years we also show that the urban consumption inequality rose considerably

vulnerability and chronic poverty in rural sichuan abstract chinese anti poverty policy stresses the long term structural nature of rural poverty this paper shows that poverty in rural sichuan during 1991 95 was both dynamic and persistent a new measure of chronic poverty is defined as a high vulnerability to being poor and compared with traditional interpretations of chronic poverty as low mean consumption households are highly vulnerable to falling into poverty even when their average consumption is some distance above the poverty line the determinants of low mean consumption and high vulnerability appear however to be similar suggesting that policies to increase mean consumption will also reduce vulnerability

the higher educational transformation of china and its global implications higher educational transformation of china this paper discusses the major transformation of higher education that has been under way in china since 1999 and evaluates its potential global implications reflecting china s commitment to continued high growth this transformation focuses on major new resource commitments to tertiary education and significant changes in organisational form all of these changes have already had large impacts on china s higher educational system and are beginning to be felt by the global educational structure this focus on tertiary education differentiates the chinese case from other countries who earlier at similar stages of development instead stressed primary and secondary education

the higher educational transformation of china and its global implications this chapter documents the major transformation of higher education that has been underway in china since 1999 and evaluates its potential global impacts this has involved major new resource commitments to tertiary education and significant changes in organizational form reflecting china s commitment to continued high growth through quality upgrading and the production of ideas and intellectual property as set out in both the tenth 2001 2005 and eleventh 2006 2010 five year plans the number of undergraduate and graduate students in china has been growing at approximately 20 per year since 1999 and the total number of graduates at all levels of higher education in china has increased by more than a factor of six in the last decade entering class sizes and total student enrolments have risen fast too approximately quintupling prior to 1999 increases in these areas were much smaller much of the increased spending is focussed on elite universities and new academic contracts differ sharply from earlier ones which lacked tenure and often used annual publication quotas

rising inequalities in income and health in china who is left behind during the last decades china has experienced double digit economic growth rates and rising inequality this paper implements a new decomposition on the china health and nutrition panel survey 1991 2006 to examine the extent to which changes in level and distribution of incomes and in income mobility are related to health disparities between rich and poor we find that health disparities in china relate to rising income inequality and in particular to the adverse health and income experience of older wo men but not to the growth rate of average incomes over the last decades these findings suggest that replacement incomes and pensions at older ages may be one of the most important policy levers in combating health disparities between rich and poor chinese

are sunspots learnable an experimental investigation in a simple macroeconomic model abstract we conduct experiments with human subjects in a model with a positive production externality in which productivity is a nondecreasing function of the average level of employment of other firms the model has three steady states and a sunspot equilibrium that fluctuates between the high and low steady states steady states are payoff ranked low values give lower profits than higher values we investigate whether subjects can learn a sunspot equilibrium we observe coordination on the extrinsic announcements in our experimental economies cases of apparent convergence to the low and high steady states are also observed

regional institutions ownership transformation and migration of industrial leadership in china the case of the chinese synthetic dye industry 1978 2008 scholars have emphasized the gradual ownership transformation of enterprises as a key driver of the chinese economy s unprecedented growth however little work has been done on the issue of whether this transformation process takes place evenly across the various regions in china this article describes the important role of regional institutions in shaping the ownership based competitiveness of local enterprises and the migration of industries across regions in the case of the chinese synthetic dye industry the passing of leadership from state owned enterprises soes to collectively owned enterprises coes and then to private enterprises pes was accompanied by a concurrent leadership migration from one region to another the article contends that this simultaneous occurrence was not accidental four institutional constraints the degree of central supervision the local labor arrangements the local social welfare provision and the degree of ambiguity in property rights retarded the rise of new ownership forms in the previously dominant regions this gave other regions the opening to take over leadership positions by providing a more favorable institutional context for new ownership forms these findings are likely to apply to all of the chinese manufacturing industries that existed prior to 1978 and that subsequently did not experience significant technological changes and were not highly protected by the government

cooperation in an overlapping generations experiment abstract recent theoretical work shows that folk theorems can be developed for infinite overlapping generations games cooperation in such games can be sustained as a nash equilibrium but of course there are other equilibria this paper investigates experimentally whether cooperation actually occurs in a simple overlapping generations game subjects both play the game and formulate strategies our main finding is that subjects fail to exploit the intertemporal structure of the game even when we provided subjects with a recommendation to play the grim trigger strategy most of the subjects still employed safe history independent strategies journal of economic literature classification numbers c72 c92 d90

information learning and expectations in an experimental model economy the experimental learning to forecast literature finds that subjects use simple linear backward looking models when forecasting in environments with little to no inout the economic framework we study the formation of expectations in a laboratory economy of monopolistic firms and labour unions with almost complete knowledge of the model we observe simple backward looking rules but also a considerable share of model based expectations using information on the economic structure at least for some subjects expectations are informed by theory as in the previous literature we find individual prediction rules to be heterogeneous

sticky information and model uncertainty in survey data on inflation expectations abstract this paper compares three reduced form models of heterogeneity in survey inflation expectations on the one hand we specify two models of forecasting inflation based on limited information flows of the type developed in mankiw and reis 2002 sticky information versus sticky prices a proposal to replace the new keynesian phillips curve quarterly journal of economics 117 4 1295 1328 we present maximum likelihood results that suggests a sticky information model with a time varying distribution structure is consistent with the michigan survey of inflation expectations we also compare these sticky information models to the endogenous model uncertainty approach in branch 2004 the theory of rationally heterogeneous expectations evidence from survey data on inflation expectations economic journal 114 497 non parametric evidence suggests that models which allow the degree of heterogeneity to change over time provide a better fit of the data

evaluating the atkinson index of household energy consumption in china abstract improving equality and efficiency of household energy distribution is the primary concern of china s policy makers in their effort to reform the energy pricing system in this paper we use atkinson index as an analytical tool to quantitatively and systematically evaluate the equality and efficiency of household energy distribution the result shows that the atkinson index of electricity expenditure is much smaller than that of transportation expenditure which indicates that transportation expenditure responds better to income differences furthermore a geographical distribution analysis indicates that households in middle china suffer greater inequality in energy distribution than those in eastern and western china in view of the oncoming energy pricing reform in china we reevaluate the atkinson index under the new pricing scenarios for electricity and petroleum products compared to the current household energy pricing mechanism the simulated new policies generate more allocative efficiency of household energy and ensure more equality of energy consumption for low income households on this account we suggest that geographical differences and equality in energy distribution be duly addressed in reforming energy policies in china

a natural experiment of the effect of advertising on sales the sasol case the effect of advertising in a major product category petrol on the market share of a brand petrol produced by sasol of south africa was estimated using variants of a koyck distributed lag model our use of a single equation model was supported by granger causality tests showing that advertising caused sales but that sales did not simultaneously cause advertising the situation is a unique natural experiment in that non promotional variables in the marketing mix price location of sale and product characteristics are largely invariant between sasol s petrol and competing brands allowing isolation of the effect of advertising on market share dummy variables were used to allow for the varying effect of different advertising campaigns and thus allow for the quality of advertising copy the results supported the hypotheses that sales are determined by past as well as current advertising expenditures but that the cumulative effects of advertising lasts for months rather than years the major finding