a generalized measure of farm specific technical efficiency single measures of farm specific technical efficiency over time are calculated for rice farms in central luzon the philippines from the residuals of a stochastic frontier production function panel data from the international rice research institute s periodic loop survey are used results show a narrow range of efficiency between 84 and 95 across the twenty two farms so that there is limited scope for increasing output by resource reallocation a comparison is made with measures of technical efficiency using traditional covariance analysis

harvests and business cycles in nineteenth century america most major american industrial business cycles from around 1880 to the first world war were caused by fluctuations in the size of the cotton harvest due to economically exogenous factors such as weather wheat and corn harvests did not affect industrial production nor did the cotton harvest before the late 1870s the unique effect of the cotton harvest in this period can be explained as an essentially monetary phenomenon the result of interactions between harvests international gold flows and high powered money demand under america s goldstandard regime of 1879 1914

nonmonetary effects of the financial crisis in propagation of the great depression this paper examines the effects of the financial crisis of the 1930s onthe path of aggregate output during that period our approach is complementary to that of friedman and schwartz who emphasized the monetary impact of the bank failures we focus on non monetary primarily credit related aspects of the financial sector output link and consider the problems of debtors as well as those of the banking system we argue that the financial disruptions of 1930 33 reduced the efficiency of the credit allocation process and that the resulting higher cost and reduced availability of credit acted to depress aggregate demand evidence suggests that effects of this type can help explain the unusual length and depth of the great depression this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

exit from the meatpacking industry a microdata analysis we model the determinants of plant exit from the cattle slaughter industry using probit to distinguish between plant level e g age scale and scope and market level e g market share concentration and competitive fringe factors market variables are shown to be less important determinants of exit than plant level factors though a significant tendency for very small plants to exit already highly concentrated markets is apparent government actions to stem the industry s consolidation must consider the trade off between welfare gains from the reduction of market power and welfare losses from foregone technological efficiency improvements

an examination of economic efficiency of russian crop production in the reform period this article examines economic efficiency ee of crop production of russian corporate farms for 1993 1998 ee declined over the period due to declines in both technical and allocative efficiency technical efficiency te results indicate that output levels could have been maintained while reducing overall input use by an average of 29 31 in 1998 depending on the method used while the allocative efficiency ae results show that costs could have been reduced about 30 the ee scores show that russian corporate farms could have increased efficiency by reducing the use of all inputs particularly fertilizer and fuel russian agriculture inherited machinery intensive technology from the soviet era which may be inappropriate given the relative abundance of labor in the post reform environment investment constraints have prevented the replacement of old machinery intensive technology with smaller scale machines that allow for a more labor using technology jel classification p2 q1

who borrows from the lender of last resort understanding why banks borrow from the lender of last resort lolr during a nancial crisis is crucial to understanding the macroeconomic impact of such largescale interventions we document a strong divergence among banks take up of lolr assistance during the nancial crisis in the euro area as banks which borrowed heavily also used increasingly risky collateral we propose four explanations for this divergence

rules for a lender of last resort an historical perspective abstract the federal reserve was established in 1913 to be a lender of last resort paul warburg its principal architect had in mind that a u s central bank would follow bagehot s strictures to lend freely at a penalty rate in the face of a scramble for high powered money yet the federal reserve act never spelled out how the fed was supposed to act as an llr this omission came to the fore in the great contraction 1929 to 1933 when the fed failed to prevent four banking panics which turned a serious recession into the great contraction reforms in the 1930s corrected some of the fed s failures but clamped down on financial activity for 40 years the financial crisis problem returned in the 1970s with financial liberalization the fed abandoned bagehot s strictures and adopted the too big to fail doctrine and creative ambiguity this policy shift contributed to moral hazard and created new threats to financial stability with the rise of the shadow banking system the subprime mortgage crisis prompted the fed to take unprecedented llr activities which have opened up a pandora s box of perils the fed has moved away from rules based policy in its llr function

identifying the effects of a lender of last resort on financial markets lessons from the founding of the fed abstract we use the founding of the federal reserve to identify the effects of a lender of last resort we examine stock return and interest rate volatility during september and october when markets were vulnerable because of financial stringency from the harvest stock volatility fell by 40 and interest rate volatility by more than 70 following the monetary regime change the drop is insignificant if major panic years are omitted from the analysis however because business cycle downturns occurred in the same year as financial crises our results suggest that the existence of the federal reserve reduced liquidity risk

were price changes during the great depression anticipated abstract this paper reassesses whether the large swings in prices during the 1930 s were anticipated we argue that uncertainty about monetary fiscal and exchange rate policies induced systematic differences between the rate of price change expected by economic agents at the time and the time series forecasts of inflation our analysis of nominal interest rates and ex post inflation strongly supports this view in fact our results suggest that the deflation of the early depression years and the inflation that followed were both largely unanticipated

excess capacity as a barrier to entry an empirical appraisal this paper examines excess capacity barriers to entry and investment dynamics in a sample of thirty eight chemical product industries logit and log linear models of investment behavior are estimated and specific case examples are considered the results show that incumbents rarely built excess capacity pre emptively in an effort to deter entry in general entrants and incumbents exhibited similar investment behavior

from drafts to checks the evolution of correspondent banking networks and the formation of the modern u s payments system 1850 1914 checks remained local payments instruments throughout virtually the entire nineteenth century their significant use in interregional transactions dates only to the 1890s we explain their lagged spatial diffusion by the evolution of centralized payments institutions to coordinate transactions among myriad banks not real technological changes to annihilate distance the pivotal institutions were large correspondent banks especially in new york after the civil war new york funds constituted a national settlement medium and the concentration of bankers balances in new york yielded liquidity and other externalities smoothing the flow of check payments

measuring technical efficiency in the greek agricultural sector this paper measures the degree of technical efficiency of greek farms at discrete points in time stochastic frontier production functions are estimated from four annual farm accountancy data network fadn surveys of the 1992 1995 period from the results a measure of technical efficiency is calculated for each farm for each year the four distributions of technical efficiency values are examined and compared all four samples show a wide range of farm specific technical efficiency but efficiency is improving over the period the paper also presents frontier estimates for small and large farms classified according to economic size in that case technical efficiency measures are calculated and their distributions are examined and compared the results show that large farms are more efficient than small farms however efficiency is improving in both size farms over the period in general the results of this study indicate that there is substantial scope for improving technical efficiency of greek farms

how amsterdam got fiat money abstract a fiat money system was introduced in the seventeenth century by a prominent public bank of the time the bank of amsterdam employing data from the bank s archives we show that bank money became a more attractive transactions medium following a 1683 policy change which unbundled the bank s account balances from a right to redeem these balances in coin balances not matched by a redemption right became fiat this change also stabilized the value of bank money as a unit of account freed the bank from defensive open market operations and promoted seigniorage collection

efficiency in agricultural production the case of peasant farmers in eastern paraguay abstract this paper contributes to the productivity literature in developing country agriculture by quantifying the level of efficiency for a sample of peasant farmers from eastern paraguay a stochastic efficiency decomposition methodology is used to derive technical allocative and economic efficiency measures separately for cotton and cassava an average economic efficiency of 40 1 for cotton and of 52 for cassava is found which suggests considerable room for productivity gains for the farms in the sample through better use of available resources given the state of technology gains in output through productivity growth have become increasingly important to paraguay as the opportunities to bring additional virgin lands into cultivation have significantly diminished in recent years no clear strategy to improve farm productivity could be gleaned from an examination of the relationship between efficiency and various socioeconomic variables one possible explanation for this finding is the existence of a stage of development threshold below which there is no consistent relationship between socioeconomic variables and productivity if this is the case then our results suggest that this sample of paraguayan peasants are yet to reach such a threshold hence improvements in educational and extension services for example would be needed to go beyond this threshold once this is accomplished additional productivity gains would be obtained by further investments in human capital and related factors

monetary policy theory and practice in respect of the theory of monetary policy i am reminded of the comment that jacob viner made many years ago at a meeting of the american economic association about alfred marshall s economics what is new is highly unlikely at this late date also to be true and significant 1 consequently i shall restrict my remarks on theory to trying to summarize what i regard as the present intellectual position

spatially correlated exit strategies in the baking industry this article uses a unique data set to analyse economic factors that explain firm exit and the interrelation across firms in space when exiting results show the effectiveness of modelling spatial correlation in a logit exit model indeed in our application reliable statistical results could only be drawn from our data when including spatial correlation in the model

the dynamic effects of aggregate demand and supply disturbances we interpret fluctuations in gnp and unemployment as due to two types of disturbances disturbances that have a permanent effect on output and disturbances that do not we interpret the first as supply disturbances the second as demand disturbances demand disturbances have a hump shaped mirror image effect on output and unemployment the effect of supply disturbances on output increases steadily over time peaking after two years and reaching a plateau after five years

sources of panics evidence from the weekly data abstract we use weekly data 1867 1933 to investigate the sources of banking and financial panics we find that while a panic s exact starting date is unpredictable one can identify environments conducive to panics a lack of liquidity in financial markets seems to be a key source results also reveal the effectiveness of the aldrich vreeland act inelastizing the money supply and shortening the panic of 1914 and suggest that the panic of 1933 may have been caused by a speculative attack on the gold backed us dollar via the banks as opposed to a run on the banks directly

global liquidity transmission to emerging market economies and their policy responses abstract this paper analyzes the transmission of global liquidity gl from advanced economies aes to emerging market economies emes we distill gl momenta from the macro financial data of aes through a factor model and identify them with sign restrictions as policy driven market driven and risk averseness factors using a panel factor augmented var analysis we then investigate eme responses to shocks to gl momenta a positive shock to policy driven liquidity boosts growth in emes elevating stock prices and currency values while a shock to risk averseness has a largely opposite effect a market driven gl expansion boosts stock markets and lowers funding costs increasing competitiveness and current account balance inflation targeting emes are found to fare better than emes under alternative regimes in terms of macro financial volatility

farm productivity and efficiency in rural bangladesh the role of education revisited this article reassesses the debate over the role of education in farm production in bangladesh using a large dataset on rice producing households from 141 villages average and stochastic production frontier functions are estimated to ascertain the effect of education on productivity and efficiency a full set of proxies for farm education stock variables are incorporated to investigate the internal as well as external returns to education the external effect is investigated in the context of rural neighbourhoods our analysis reveals that in addition to raising rice productivity and boosting potential output household education significantly reduces production inefficiencies however we are unable to find any evidence of the externality benefit of schooling neighbour s education does not matter in farm production we discuss the implication of these findings for rural education programmes in bangladesh

money creation and the shadow banking system many explanations for the rapid growth of the shadow banking system in the mid2000s focus on money demand this paper asks whether the short term liabilities of the shadow banking system behave like money we rst present a simple model where households demand money services which are supplied by three types of claims deposits treasury bills and asset backed commercial paper abcp the model provides predictions for the price and quantity dynamics of these claims as well as the behavior of the banking system in terms of issuance and the monetary authority in terms of open market operations consistent with the model the empirical evidence suggests that the shadow banking system does respond to money demand

ghatak subrata and ken ingersent agriculture and economic development baltimore md johns hopkins university press 1984 380 pp 27 50 10 95 paper

the household responsibility system reform and the adoption of hybrid rice in china abstract this paper studies the diffusion of hybrid rice before and after the recent institutional change from the collective team system to the household based farming system in rural china a simple model which treats the adoption of hybrid rice as a portfolio selection problem is presented the model is tested against time series cross county data collected from hunan province in south china the empirical evidence suggests that 1 adoption behavior in the collective system was not consistent with the predictions of the theoretical model this evidence indicates the existence of administrative intervention in influencing production decisions in the collective system 2 there was a significant change in the structure of the adoption function following the transition from the collective system to the household based system and 3 adoption behavior in the household system is consistent with the predictions of the theoretical model

shadowy banks and financial contagion during the great depression a retrospective on friedman and schwartz this essay assesses whether network linkages within the banking system amplified the real effects of bank failures during the great contraction in 1929 nearly all interbank deposits held by federal reserve member banks belonged to shadowy nonmember banks which were outside the regulatory reach of federal regulators regional banking panics in the early 1930s drained these interbank deposits from central reserve city banks money center banks in chicago and new york responded to volatile and declining interbank deposits by changing their asset composition they reduced their lending to businesses and individuals and increased their holdings of cash and government bonds

liquidity risk bank networks and the value of joining the federal reserve system reducing systemic liquidity risk related to seasonal swings in loan demand was one reason for the founding of the federal reserve system existing evidence on the post federal reserve increase in the seasonal volatility of aggregate lending and the decrease in seasonal interest rate swings suggests that it succeeded in that mission nevertheless less than 8 percent of state chartered banks joined the federal reserve in its first decade some have speculated that nonmembers could avoid higher costs of the federal reserve s reserve requirements while still obtaining access indirectly to the federal reserve discount window through contacts with federal reserve members we find that individual bank attributes related to the extent of banks ability to mitigate seasonal loan demand variation predict banks decisions to join the federal reserve consistent with the notion that banks could obtain indirect access to the discount window through interbank transfers we find that a bank s position within the interbank network as a user or provider of liquidity predicts the timing of its entry into the federal reserve system and the effect of federal reserve membership on its lending behavior we also find that indirect access to the federal reserve was not as good as direct access federal reserve member banks saw a greater increase in lending than nonmember banks

interest rate seasonals and the federal reserve it is widely believed that one of the federal reserve s first important monetary policy achievements was the deseasonalization of interest rates the federal reserve supposedly accomplished this by introducing appropriate seasonal movements into the supplies of currency and high powered money this view implicitly assumes that there was no interaction between american and foreign financial markets two findings are reported that challenge this conventional view first interest rate seasonals disappeared in the united states and other countries at approximately the same time second interest rate seasonal ended approximately 3 years before the seasonal movements of currency and high powered money changed

on measuring economic efficiency summary this paper considers a system consisting of a production frontier and factor share equations to measure firm specific technical efficiency and input specific allocative efficiency simultaneously in estimating the system as a whole the joint distribution of all errors in the equations is used this is more efficient than using the marginal distribution of a function of the errors as one does by estimating either the profit function or the production function alone the workability of the method is illustrated by applying it to farm level data from philippines agriculture

the federal reserve amendments of 1917 the beginning of a seasonal note issue policy the federal reserve adopted a policy of smoothing the seasonal behavior of interest rates after the amendments of 1917 these amendments reduced the collateral requirements for notes issued and thereby increased note issue capability notes in circulation more than doubled from june to december 1917 these amendments were passed to assist with war related financing as their timing coincided with the entry of the united states into world war i the smoothing of interest rates seasonals between 1914 and 1917 was not due to the founding of the federal reserve system but rather to trade related gold flows copyright 1991 by ohio state university press

price smoothing policies a welfare analysis in post wwii experience u s monetary authorities have attempted to eliminate seasonal fluctuations in prices and nominal interest rates developments in financial markets and recently discovered empirical regularities regarding the seasonal cycle seem to make these activities questionable using a money in the utility function model this paper analyzes the welfare properties of price and interest rate smoothing policies and the sense in which the distinction between seasonal and cyclical fluctuations is relevant it is shown that smoothing policies are welfare improving but not optimal and that the origin of the shocks not the persistence of the fluctuations is relevant in formulating policies

public ends private means abstract this paper is an empirical investigation into the practices of the second bank of the united states during the decade preceding andrew jackson s veto of the bank a new monthly data set derived from financial publications and second bank records of the time is employed to investigate whether the bank operated in the public interest as argued by its supporters or to further its own monopolistic interests as argued by its detractors the paper analyzes the role played by this early central bank and provides an intriguing example of one experiment in the private provision of public goods

origins of the federal reserve system international incentives and the domestic free rider problem from the civil war to 1914 the united states had one of the worst e nancial systems in the world the dominant institutional feature of the system was the absence of a central bank and its most salient performance characteristics were the recurrence of banking panics and severe seasonal interest rate e uctuations these e nancial problems were economically costly panics were accompanied by sharp declines in the money supply reduced economic activity and increased unemployment and business failures in 1913 congress created the federal reserve system to safeguard the nation from panics and smooth out interest rate seasonals in more general terms the federal reserve was established to provide the national public good of e nancial system stability in this study i explain how american society overcame the collective action problems that normally constrain the production of public goods to inadequate levels in other words the article is about the political effort that produced an infrastructural cornerstone of the modern u s economy in the face of incentives that should have left few people with sufficient motivation to pay for the improvement i bring to bear a joint products selective incentives argument to explain the voluntary collective action behind the federal reserveact 1 the lobbying effort was aboutsolving thepanic problem tobe sure but becausethisexpected benee t approximated a societywide public good it did not on its own motivate collective action instead the united states faced a second problem of e nancial organization before 1914 and it was this problem that created a private inducement to lobby for the federal reserve the structure of the domestic e nancial machinery contributed not only to instability at home but also to the near complete absence of the u s dollar in global e nancial affairs indeed the united states was the only major trading country whose currency did not function as an international currency before 1914 the new this article is a revision of a paper delivered at the 1996annual convention of the southern economic association washington d c 23 25 november i thank michael bordo marc busch william r clark benjamin j cohen barry eichengreen jeffry frieden william keech stephen krasner charles lipson jameslivingston louispauly georgeselgin bethsimmons richardtimberlake danielverdier eugene n white and two anonymous reviewers for very helpful comments 1 see olson 1965 and sandler 1992

education and innovation adoption in agriculture evidence from hybrid rice in china this paper uses the diffusion of f1 hybrid rice as a case for examining the effects of education on the adoption of new technology in china a simple behavioral model that treats the adoption of hybrid rice as a portfolio selection problem is presented the implications of the model are tested with farm level data collected from a sample of 500 households in hunan province the results from a dichotomous probit model and a two limit tobit model are consistent with the hypothesis that education has a positive impact on the adoption of new technology

the probability of exit a firm may leave an industry in at least three ways through merger voluntary liquidation or bankruptcy there are important economic differences between forms of exit yet previous work has treated exits as homogeneous this article develops a model of the relation between the forms of exit and uses it to guide selection of simple estimated statistical models an empirical example from the cotton textile industry demonstrates the arguments the results in this data are that the form of exit is not related to profitability that there is some heterogeneity across forms of exit and that information about the characteristics of the firm alone is not sufficient to predict all forms of exit

the worldwide change in the behavior of interest rates and prices in 1914 abstract this paper evaluates the role of the destruction of the gold standard and the founding of the federal reserve both of which occured in 1914 in contributing to observed changes in the behavior of interest rates and prices after 1914 the paper presents a model of policy coordination in which the introduction of the fed stabilizes interest rates even it the gold standard remains intact and it offers empirical evidence that the dismantling of the gold standard did not play a crucial role in precipitating the changes in interest rate behavior

seasonal cycles business cycles and monetary policy abstract this paper presents a dynamic general equilibrium model that is consistent with both seasonal and business cycle facts in the u s economy the model features consumption durability and a transaction technology both crucial in accounting for seasonal patterns of nominal variables a calibrated version of the model is used to quantitatively evaluate welfare consequences of three alternative monetary policy rules 1 the fed s historical policy that smooths nominal interest rates at the seasonal frequency but not at the business cycle frequency 2 a constant money growth rule and 3 a constant interest rate rule we find that the historical policy is associated with higher welfare than both alternatives

bank regulation and monetary policy the depository institutions deregulation and monetary control act 1980 and the garn st germain depository institutions act 1982 are the two most significant pieces of bank legislation since the 193os their significance stems from the fact that they have sought to roll back a number of the regulations and restrictions imposed on bank activity and competition in the 1933 80 period among the important provisions of these acts are a gradual elimination of regulation q ceilings on time and savings deposits by march 1986 the amelioration of state imposed usury ceilings on loans the nationwide provision of interest bearing transaction type accounts negotiable order of withdrawal now and super now accounts permission for thritts to expand into bank like products such as commercial and industrial loans consumer loans and credit cards and the development of new types of savings accounts such as mmdas l in addition to legislative deregulation we have also witnessed homemade deregulation as banks have sought to exploit often with great success loopholes in the bank holding

economic growth liquidity and bank runs abstract we construct an endogenous growth model in which bank runs occur with positive probability in equilibrium in this setting a bank run has a permanent effect on the levels of the capital stock and of output in addition the possibility of a run changes the portfolio choices of depositors and of banks and thereby affects the long run growth rate these facts imply that both the occurrence of a run and the mere possibility of runs in a given period have a large impact on all future periods a bank run in our model is triggered by sunspots and we consider two different equilibrium selection rules in the first a run occurs with a fixed exogenous probability while in the second the probability of a run is influenced by banks portfolio choices we show that when the choices of an individual bank affect the probability of a run on that bank the economy both grows faster and experiences fewer runs

the sources of financial crises pre and post fed evidence this paper investigates the generation and the propagation mechanism of currency demand and supply shocks before and after world war i the structural determinants of the variability of stock prices and interest rates and the changes introduced by the creation of the fed on the dynamics of the system it is shown that in the pre 1914 era external monetary shocks interacted with a seasonal demand for money to produce financial crises the fed helped to prevent crises by insulating the u s economy from external shocks a structural vector autoregressive model provides evidence for these claims copyright 1991 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

more on the behavior of interest rates and the founding of the fed abstract the paper addresses the issue of the impact of the foundation of the federal reserve system in 1914 on the behavior of short term interest rates empirical evidence is presented showing that no change of regime can be detected in the process governing short term rates in the years straddling the foundation of the fed since the behavior of this process did change in the decade 1910 1920 the paper discusses some historical events and institutional changes in the new york money market that had an impact on the behavior of short term interest rates between 1908 and 1920

effects of technological change and institutional reform on production growth in chinese agriculture recent rapid agricultural production growth in chinese agriculture could be attributed to an increase in inputs technological change and institutional reform an accounting approach was used to separate the relative contribution of these three factors institutional change like the introduction of the household production responsibility system has contributed to past growth in production however technological change is crucial to furthering production growth because of the limited potential for significant increase in the use of conventional inputs in particular land continued institutional change must accompany corresponding technological changes

the examination of pecan price differences using spatial correlation estimation a spatial analysis is used to model factors that explain the price received by pecan growers besides the statistical aspect of the study focussing on spatial autoregressive residuals the economic analysis of the paper identifies linkages between the price for in shell pecans received by growers and the characteristics of the orchard production costs and resources and the orchard location

nominal exchange rate regimes and the real exchange rate abstract two assumptions about the real exchange rate are common in the literature on international finance 1 the real exchange rate is a random walk 2 the time series properties of the real exchange rate depend on the nominal exchange rate regime this paper presents evidence that indicates that the random walk behavior of the real exchange rate is only a characteristic of the post world war ii period moreover our findings also suggest that what is crucial to the real exchange rate behavior is the particular historical period rather than the nominal exchange rate arrangement

frontier production functions and technical efficiency a survey of empirical applications in agricultural economics abstract the modelling and estimation of frontier production functions has been an important area of econometric research during the last two decades forsund lovell and schmidt 1980 and schmidt 1986 present reviews of the concepts and models involved and cite some of the empirical applications which had appeared to their respective times of publication this paper seeks to update the econometric modelling of frontier production functions associated with the estimation of technical efficiency of individual firms a survey of empirical applications in agricultural economics is an important part of the paper

monetary policy shocks and foreign investment income evidence from a large bayesian var abstract this paper assesses the transmission of monetary policy in a large bayesian vector autoregression based on the approach proposed by banbura et al 2010 the paper analyzes the impact of monetary policy shocks in the united states and canada not only on a range of domestic aggregates trade flows and exchange rates but also foreign investment income the analysis provides three main results first a surprise monetary policy contraction has a statistically important impact on both gross and net foreign investment income flows in both countries against the background of growing foreign wealth and investment income this result provides preliminary evidence that foreign balance sheet channels might play an increasingly significant role for monetary transmission second the impact of monetary policy on foreign investment income flows differs considerably across asset categories and over time suggesting that the investment instruments and the currency denomination of a country s foreign assets and liabilities are potentially relevant for the way in which monetary policy affects the domestic economy finally the results support existing evidence on the effectiveness of large vector autoregressions and the bayesian shrinkage approach in eliminating price and exchange rate puzzles

efficiency and technical progress in traditional and modern agriculture evidence from rice production in china abstract productive efficiency for chinese hybrid and conventional rice production is estimated using a dual stochastic frontier efficiency decomposition model results reveal significant differences in technical and allocative efficiency between conventional and hybrid rice production and indicate significant regional efficiency differences in hybrid rice production but not in conventional rice production

bayesian methods for dynamic multivariate models if dynamic multivariate models are to be used to guide decisionmaking it is important that probability assessments of forecasts or policy projections be provided when identified bayesian vector autoregression var models are presented with error bands in the existing literature both conceptual and numerical problems have not been dealt with in an internally consistent way in this paper the authors develop methods to introduce prior information in both reduced form and structural var models without introducing substantial new computational burdens their approach makes it feasible to use a single large dynamic framework for example twenty variable models for tasks of policy projections copyright 1998 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

great crashes in history have they lessons for today crashes in asset markets have been common throughout history while financial crises defined as crises in the banking system have in some countries and periods been as common and in others much more rare this article examines historical attitudes to those events and looks at some of the events themselves it is concluded first that crashes need not inevitably be followed by crises second that crashes without crises do not have serious effects on the economy and third that there is a policy instrument the lender of last resort to prevent financial crises from occurring even should there be a substantial preceding fall in asset markets these lessons from history so it is argued hold for recent events in south east asia and indeed apply generally to any economy the present can still learn from the past copyright 1999 by oxford university press

agglomeration economies localization or urbanization i estimate localization and urbanization economies with a methodology and data different from those of henderson and nakamura after demonstrating the problems associated with using a single agglomeration variable i present my estimates as nakamura found for japanese cities i find evidence of both localization economies and urbanization economies but i also find evidence of urbanization diseconomies in some industries as did henderson my evidence for localization and urbanization economies in american cities is stronger than henderson s evidence finally i show that the pattern of agglomeration economies by industry is consistent with observed patterns of industrial location

efficiency estimation in a profit maximising model using flexible production function abstract this paper uses a flexible translog production function to estimate efficiency of 227 farms from west bengal india we consider estimation of technical and allocative inefficiencies using a profit maximising framework which accommodates both endogenous and exogenous inputs the maximum likelihood method of estimation developed in this paper is based on the production function and the first order conditions of profit maximisation farm specific technical and allocative inefficiencies are also estimated empirical results show that the mean level of technical efficiency is 75 46 while the best farm is 85 87 efficient technically so far as allocative efficiency is concerned the majority of the farms are found to be under users of the endogenous inputs viz fertiliser manure human and bullock labour

financial panics the seasonality of the nominal interest rate and the founding of the fed after the founding of the fed in 1914 the frequency of financial panics and the size of the seasonal movements in nominal interest ratesboth declined substantially this paper establishes that the fed by carrying out the seasonal open market policy that eliminated the seasonal in nominal interest rates caused the decrease in the frequency of panics since seasonal movements are anticipated and financial panics are probably real events the results show that an anticipated monetary policy had real effects on the economy copyright 1986 by american economic association

analysis of production efficiency of beef cow calf farms in alberta this article measures production efficiency across cow calf farms in alberta and examines the sources of variation in efficiency average technical allocative and economic efficiencies are respectively 83 78 and 67 biological efficiency increased conception calving and weaning rates larger herd size higher share of family labour and greater expense for bedding material reduce inefficiency inefficiency was also related to receipt of government subsidies

were financial crises predictable this paper empirically investigates the nature of financial crises in the united states before 1914 it attempts to determine whether crises were statistically similar predictable and had a common generating mechanism using probit and hazard models and out of sample criteria it is shown there are variables that explain movements in the probability of crises and that the probability of crises is seasonal two crises were predictable but in the other six episodes every forecasting model examined failed these results suggest that financial crises were not all statistically alike and that their generation mechanisms differed copyright 1994 by ohio state university press

estimation of ses for heteroscedastic and cross sectionally correlated data this study develops se estimators for heteroscedastic and cross sectionally correlated data the new estimators are a cross sectional version of the white and domowitz 1984 and newey and west 1987 estimators and therefore consistent in the presence of heteroscedasticity and cross correlation of unknown form unlike the estimators in the literature these estimators can control for cross correlation even for single period cross sectional data

sources and propagation of international output cycles common shocks or transmission abstract this paper studies the generation and transmission of international cycles in a multi country model with production and consumption interdependencies two sources of disturbance are considered and three channels of propagation are compared technology disturbances which are mildly correlated across countries are more successful than government expenditure disturbances in reproducing actual data the presence of a common component to the shocks and of production interdependencies appear to be crucial in quantitatively matching the properties of the data

the role of the federal reserve as lender of last resort and the seasonal fluctuation of interest rates the federal reserve s role as a lender of last resort may explain why the seasonal fluctuation of interest rates appeared to decline around 1914 the creation of the fed reduced the seasonal fluctuation of both the probability of a bank receiving an emergency loan and the probability of a financial panic the seasonality of real interest rates could therefore have declined regardless of whether the fed conducted seasonal open market operations the evidence is consistent with the lender of last resort model copyright 1991 by ohio state university press

price inertia and policy ineffectiveness in the united states 1890 1980 this paper introduces a new approach to the empirical testing of the lucas sargent wallace lsw policy ineffectiveness proposition which compares the lsw hypothesis with an alternative that states that prices respond fully in the long run but only gradually in the short run to nominal aggregate demand disturbances the empirical equations estimated for a new set of quarterly data extending back to 1890 exhibit uniformly high responses of real output and low responses of price changes to anticipated changes in nominal gnp the paper compares and tests three alternative methods of introducing persistence effects into the lsw framework

hybrid rice innovation in china a study of market demand induced technological innovation in a centrally planned economy this paper uses the innovation of hybrid rice in china as a case study to test the validity of the griliches schmookler hypothesis of market demand induced technological innovation in a centrally planned economy the empirical evidence indicates that the size of rice acreage in a province is the major factor in determining the amount of resource allocation for rice research and the adoption intensity of hybrid rice in that province this evidence is consistent with the implication of the griliches schmookler hypothesis copyright 1992 by mit press

a positive model of reserve requirements and interest on reserves a clearinghouse interpretation of the federal reserve system this paper develops a positive model of reserve requirements and interest on reserves based on the observation that congress exempted the fed from a legal restriction that had prevented private clearinghouses from issuing their own currency eliminating the restriction provided the fed with a source of revenue that could be used to finance general government outlays and to pay implicit interest on reserves the model implies that the government s financing requirements help explain reserve requirement movements and that interest rates on reserves vary with market loan rates cointegration error correction and granger causality tests provide supporting evidence