de industrialisation and the balance of payments in advanced economies this paper defines de industrialisation as a secular decline in the share of manufacturing in national employment de industrialisation in this sense has been a widespread feature of economic growth in advanced economies in recent decades the paper considers briefly what explains this development and quantifies some of the factors responsible it then examines the experience of britain and america which are two countries that have combined rapid de industrialisation with a strong overall economic performance the paper considers both the domestic situation of manufacturing industry in these countries and its foreign trade performance it concludes by examining in detail the british balance of payments and documenting how improvements in the non manufacturing sphere have helped offset a worsening performance in manufacturing trade copyright 2004 oxford university press

a new theoretical analysis of deindustrialisation the analysis of deindustrialisation has been led by heterodox economists especially those in the structuralist and kaldorian traditions based on a conception of sectoral specificity and the role of manufacturing in growth sectors are not the units of marxian economic analysis but thinking through the meaning of sectors in marxian terms allows for an analysis of the meaning and implications of a change in sectoral structure deindustrialisation is the sectoral shift that has been most prominent in recent decades and which is likely to have significant implications for the future of capitalism this article develops an original marxian theorisation of deindustrialisation this conceptualisation includes a distinction between two forms of deindustrialisation as well as taking into account changes in sectoral structure the proposed typology considers whether such changes are associated with a shift between those activities that produce surplus value and those that do not or only a shift in the composition of surplus value producing activities the distinction between different forms of deindustrialisation allows for an arguably richer analysis of this phenomenon than in more narrowly sector based approaches

analysis of new product diffusion using a four segment trial repeat model a four segment trial repeat model is developed to model sales of a frequently purchased product in the early stage of the product s life cycle the model can be calibrated using aggregate data alone two versions of the model one emphasizing the competitive aspect of marketing communications and another emphasizing the informative aspect are estimated from data on 21 newly launched pharmaceutical products the model provides valuable diagnostics such as an early estimate of the long run market share of the new product a decomposition of total sales into trial sales due to marketing activities trial sales due to word of mouth and repeat sales the changing composition of the trial market and repeat market over time and the time when the trial market is expected to be saturated in addition the effectiveness of the entrant s marketing efforts word of mouth communication and buyers trial experience are analyzed with the model a cross sectional analysis based on the empirical estimation results of our model reveals interesting insights into product introduction strategies we find that 1 the effectiveness of the firms communication activities on trial is related mainly to product quality attributes and market growth whereas that of word of mouth is associated with product class characteristics and market competitiveness and 2 the effect of product trial on repeat purchases is related mainly to product quality attributes and various market characteristics such as size growth competitiveness and familiarity

more mortgages lower growth in newly collected data on 46 economies over 1990 2011 we show that financial development since 1990 was mostly due to growth in credit to real estate and other asset markets which has a negative growth coefficient we also distinguish between growth effects of stocks and flows of credit we find positive growth effects for credit flows to nonfinancial business but not for mortgage and other asset market credit flows by accounting for the composition of credit stocks and for the effect of credit flows we explain the insignificant or negative growth effects of financial development in recent times what was true in the 1960s 1970s and 1980s when the field of empirical credit growth studies blossomed is no longer true in the 1990s and 2000s new bank lending is not primarily to nonfinancial business and financial development may no longer be good for growth these trends predate the 2008 crisis they prompt a rethink of the role of banks in the process of economic growth jel e44 o16 o40 c33

top income shares and aggregate wealth income ratio in a two class corporate economy this paper examines some determinants of top income shares and the aggregate wealth income ratio in the usa the paper first points out the difficulties in piketty s neo classical version of explanation of us income inequality which stresses the effect of the rising aggregate wealth income ratio and high elasticity of factor substitution second the analysis based on a cambridge two class model along the lines of kaldor 1955 56 1966 and pasinetti 1962 highlights the role of financialization in increasing inequality third the analysis suggests that the rise in the aggregate wealth income ratio from 1980 to 2007 in the usa is explained mostly by asset price inflation not by technical relations finally the analysis examines the effects of the slowdown in capital accumulation on income distribution and wealth income ratios which are very different from those in piketty s capital in the twenty first century

diffusion of renewable energy technologies in south korea on incorporating their competitive interrelationships renewable energy technologies rets have attracted significant public attention for several reasons the most important being that they are clean alternative energy sources that help reduce greenhouse gas emissions to increase the probability that rets will be successful it is essential to reduce the uncertainty about its adoption with accurate long term demand forecasting this study develops a diffusion model that incorporates the effect of competitive interrelationships among renewable sources to forecast the growth pattern of five rets solar photovoltaic wind power and fuel cell in the electric power sector and solar thermal and geothermal energy in the heating sector the 2 step forecasting procedure is based on the bayus 1993 manage sci 39 11 1319 1333 price function and a diffusion model suggested by hahn et al 1994 marketing sci 13 3 224 247 in an empirical analysis the model is applied to the south korean renewable energy market

wage norms capital accumulation and unemployment a post keynesian view the paper presents a post keynesian view of unemployment it argues first that the effective labour demand need not be downward sloping with respect to real wages and aggregate demand need not be downward sloping with respect to inflation second that there is a broad case for unemployment hysteresis understood as endogeneity of the non accelerating inflation rate of unemployment nairu based on social norms in wage bargaining and on the supply side effects of capital accumulation and third that much as keynes argued capital investment rather than labour market institutions is the key variable to explain changes in aggregate unemployment performance across countries and over time overall the paper advocates a keynesian view of the nairu where effective demand determines unemployment in the short run and the deviation of actual unemployment from the nairu determines the change in inflation in the medium term the nairu is endogenous and follows actual unemployment copyright 2011 oxford university press

diffusion of new products empirical generalizations and managerial uses the diffusion model developed by bass bass f m 1969 a new product growth model for consumer durables management sci 15january 215 227 constitutes an empirical generalization it represents a pattern or regularity that has been shown to repeat over many new products and services in many countries and over a variety circumstances numerous and various applications of the model have lead to further generalizations modifications and extensions of the model have lead to further generalizations in addition to the empirical generalizations that stem from the model we discuss here some of the managerial applications of the model

the drivers of structural change the main goal of this paper is to provide an integrated survey of the literature devoted to identifying the drivers of structural change broadly defined as the process of reallocation of economic activity across the three broad sectors agriculture manufacturing and services using the ggdc 10 sector database this paper first presents the empirical facts associated with structural change in different regions of the world that is europe and the usa asia latin america and africa then reviews four determinants of structural change i changes in income ii changes in relative sectoral prices iii changes in input output linkages and iv changes in comparative advantage s via globalization and trade

characterising deindustrialisation an analysis of changes in manufacturing employment and output internationally deindustrialisation is typically conceptualised as a decline in manufacturing as a share of total employment from a kaldorian perspective deindustrialisation could have negative implications for long run growth given the special growth pulling properties of manufacturing however defining deindustrialisation purely in terms of employment share is conceptually limiting given that some of the kaldorian processes operate primarily through output rather than employment as well as blunting empirical analysis by not focussing enough on changes in manufacturing share of gross domestic product gdp this study develops a new method using decomposition techniques to analyse changes in manufacturing employment levels and shares in 48 countries over periods of deindustrialisation the analysis separates out changes in the levels and shares of employment manufacturing into components associated with changes in the share of manufacturing in gdp the growth of manufacturing value added the labour intensity of manufacturing production and economic growth the results indicate that in most cases the decline in manufacturing employment is associated primarily with falling labour intensity of manufacturing rather than an overall decline in the size or share of the manufacturing sector we suggest that deindustrialisation should appropriately be defined in terms of a sustained decline in both the share of manufacturing in total employment and the share of manufacturing in gdp copyright the author 2008 published by oxford university press on behalf of the cambridge political economy society all rights reserved oxford university press

platform economy as a new form of capitalism a regulationist research programme the terms platform economy or sharing economy have become widespread with the development of digital platforms like uber this economy is transforming capitalism and raising important questions about its nature is it a new process of embeddedness or is it the next step for deregulation following the crisis of the financialised regime of accumulation ra is it a possible new growth regime using the approach of the french regulation school of thought we describe the nature and transformations of the form of competition inherent in platforms although this may favour some forms of re embeddedness we show that it will accelerate some of the trends and characteristics of the institutional forms of the financialised ra and that it is an endogenous product of its crisis this raises further questions and uncertainties related to the ability of platforms to generate stable long run growth due to the dysfunctionality of the mode of regulation and the conflicts it could generate

income distribution and the size of the financial sector a sraffian analysis the recent expansion of the financial sector has been accompanied by deregulation an acceleration of financial innovation and changes in income distribution the size of these phenomena has attracted the attention of the literature a large part has analysed the relationship between financial development and inequality arguing that the former tends to reduce the latter for a review of this literature see demirguc kunt and levine 2009 it moves from the claim that perfect credit markets reduce inequality by bringing about the efficient exploitation of personal qualities material endowments and the growth potentials of the economy credit market imperfections hold back the achievement of these results but are counteracted by deregulation and financial innovation which tend to eliminate rent positions

political bias and war we examine the incentives for countries to go to war as they depend on the comparison between how much their pivotal decision makers have at risk and how much they stand to gain from a war how this ratio compares to the country at large is what we term political bias if there is no political bias then there are always payments that one country would like to make to the other that will avoid a war in the presence of commitment or enforceability of peace treaties if there is a bias on the part of one or both countries then war can result and in some cases cannot be prevented by any transfer payments we examine how war technology and relative wealth levels interact with political bias in determining whether countries make transfers go to war and form alliances our results shed some new light on the uneven contender paradox and the interpretation of the democratic peace

great powers hierarchy and endogenous regimes rethinking the domestic causes of peace this paper blends recent research on hierarchy and democratization to examine the theoretical and empirical costs of treating regime type exogenously in the literature most identified with studying its impact on international politics it argues that the apparent peace among democratic states that emerges in the aftermath of world war i is not caused by domestic institutional attributes normally associated with democracy instead this peace is an artifact of historically specific great power settlements these settlements shape subsequent aggregate patterns of military conflict by altering the organizational configuration of the system in three critical ways by creating new states by altering hierarchical orders and by influencing regime type in states these claims are defended with a series of tests that show first how the statistical relationship between democracy and peace has exhibited substantial variation across great power orders second that this statistical relationship breaks down with theoretically motivated research design changes and third that great powers foster peace and similar regime types within their hierarchical orders in short the relationship between democracy and peace is spurious the international political order is still built and managed by great powers

financial globalisation and crisis institutional transformation and equity this paper comprises the long introduction to the symposium of five papers on financial globalisation published in the cambridge journal of economics volume 34 no 2 the paper discusses the impact of financial globalisation in a variety of spheres and shows how the five papers link together to provide a coherent view of the current economic and financial crisis in this paper we also examine the globalisation of finance more broadly both in historical terms as well as in relation to the current widespread failure in the financial markets we take up the policy question of how the interests of the poor in particular and developing countries in general could be safeguarded from the vagaries of financial globalisation questioning how much choice communities and countries have and what can the international community do to extend these choices

a new product growth for model consumer durables this article originally appeared in management science january 1969 volume 15 number 5 pp 215 227 published by the institute of management sciences a growth model for the timing of initial purchase of new products is developed and tested empirically against data for eleven consumer durables the basic assumption of the model is that the timing of a consumer s initial purchase is related to the number of previous buyers a behavioral rationale for the model is offered in terms of innovative and imitative behavior the model yields good predictions of the sales peak and the timing of the peak when applied to historical data a long range forecast is developed for the sales of color television sets

towards de financialisation the role of the state understanding the nature of state financialisation is crucial to ensure de financialisation efforts are successful therefore this article provides a structured overview of the emerging literature on financialisation and the state we define financialisation of the state broadly as the changed relationship between the state understood as sovereign with duties and accountable towards its citizens and financial markets and practices in ways that can diminish those duties and reduce accountability we then argue that there are four ways in which financialisation works in and through public institutions and policies adoption of financial logics advancing financial innovation embracing financial accumulation strategies and directly financialising the lives of their citizens organising our review around the two main policy fields of fiscal and monetary policy four definitions of financialisation in the context of public policy and institutions emerge when dealing with public expenditure on social provisions financialisation most often refers to the transformation of public services into the basis for actively traded financial assets in the context of public revenue financialisation describes the process of creating and deepening secondary markets for public debt with the state turning into a financial market player finally in the realm of monetary policy financial deregulation is perceived to have paved the way for financialisation while inflation targeting and the encouragement or outright pursuit of market based short term liquidity management among financial institutions constitute financialised policies

managing demand and sales dynamics in new product diffusion under supply constraint the bass diffusion model is a well known parametric approach to estimating new product demand trajectory over time this paper generalizes the bass model by allowing for a supply constraint in the presence of a supply constraint potential customers who are not able to obtain the new product join the waiting queue generating backorders and potentially reversing their adoption decision resulting in lost sales consequently they do not generate the positive word of mouth that is typically assumed in the bass model leading to significant changes in the new product diffusion dynamics we study how a firm should manage its supply processes in a new product diffusion environment with backorders and lost sales we consider a make to stock production environment and use optimal control theory to establish that it is never optimal to delay demand fulfillment this result is interesting because immediate fulfillment may accelerate the diffusion process and thereby result in a greater loss of customers in the future using this result we derive closed form expressions for the resulting demand and sales dynamics over the product life cycle we then use these expressions to investigate how the firm should determine the size of its capacity and the time to market its new product we show that delaying a product launch to build up an initial inventory may be optimal and can be used as a substitute for capacity also the optimal time to market and capacity increase with the coefficients of innovation and imitation in the adoption population we compare our optimal capacity and time to market policies with those resulting from exogeneous demand forecasts in order to quantify the value of endogenizing demand

heterodox theories of economic growth and income distribution a partial survey heterodox theories of economic growth and income distribution are surveyed focusing on major theories and recent contributions first a general framework for examining growth and distribution is discussed in terms of which classical marxian and post keynesian kaleckian and other theories are presented since this framework examines how variables are determined in equilibrium second dynamics behind equilibria are examined focusing on goods market and labor market changes third the framework is extended in a variety of ways to examine additional models addressing productivity growth and technical change money and inflation finance and debt additional distributional considerations multisector issues open economy questions and the environment it is concluded that the literature on heterodox theories of growth and distribution is vibrant large and growing and addresses many issues that are ignored or neglected in orthodox theories including power unemployment and aggregate demand

the deindustrialisation tertiarisation hypothesis reconsidered a subsystem application to the oecd7 the diffusion of outsourcing both national and international and vertical fdis among manufacturing firms along with the higher integra tion of business services in manufacturing has recently led to question the empirical evidence supporting the deindustrialisation tertiarisation dt hypothesis rather than a real phenomenon it has been argued dt would be an apparent one mainly due to the reorganization of production across national and sectoral boundaries the empirical studies that have dealt with the topic so far have not been able to effectively rule out such possibility because of two main limitations the sectoral level of the analysis and or the national focus in order to overcome them the paper carries out an appreciative investigation of the actual extent of the dt occurred in the oecd area over the 80s and the 90s by moving from a sector to a subsystem perspective thus retaining both direct and indirect relations and by referring to a pseudo world of 7 oecd countries thus taking into account the global dimension of the phenomenon the results strongly support the dt hypothesis although the weight of business sector services in the manufacturing subsystem increased acting as a counterbalancing tendency to the manufacturing decline subsystem shares significantly decreased thus confirming dt as a more fundamental trend of modern economies

testing novel implications from the selectorate theory of war the authors tested five novel hypotheses derived from the selectorate theory of war with data for up to about 140 states and spanning the years 1816 1993 the hypotheses point to subtle differences in selection effects across regime types that should operate during crises that fall short of war and also during wars leaders who rely on a large coalition such as democrats to remain in office are shown to be more selective than their small coalition counterparts in their willingness to fight wars when the odds of victory are not overwhelming they are also more selective than their small coalition counterparts in their willingness to take part in disputes that fall short of war when the odds are not exceptionally favorable however they are less selective about this form of participation than they are about war small coalition leaders show no such selectivity in their preparedness to engage in disputes short of war or in war as a function of their odds of victory these results hold whether the odds of victory are assessed continuously or whether they are based on a specific threshold the authors also find in keeping with the selectorate theory that if a war fails to resolve quickly democrats try harder than autocrats to win and when the war is over democrats demobilize much more slowly than autocrats

how significant is intersectoral outsourcing of employment in south africa south africa like many other middle income countries as well as most upper income countries has seen an increase in services and fall in manufacturing as shares of total employment there has been speculation about the extent to which these changes actually represent a genuine structural shift as opposed to a statistical artifact deriving from the domestic outsourcing of activities from manufacturing to services very limited evidence is available as to how much of the apparent changes in the sectoral composition of employment are explained by intersectoral outsourcing this article develops a methodology using household and labor survey data to analyze the extent of intersectoral outsourcing of specific labor intensive activities in south africa from 1997 2007 it is shown that the relatively high growth in services employment is driven by expansion of employment of cleaners and security guards and in particular by outsourcing type reallocation of these activities from manufacturing and the public sector toward private services once outsourcing is accounted for employment seems to have grown at similar rates in manufacturing and in private services the analysis has implications for understanding changes in the sectoral structure of middle income economies and whether services employment is as dynamic as it appears to be copyright 2010 the author 2010 published by oxford university press on behalf of associazione icc all rights reserved oxford university press

financialisation and capital accumulation in the non financial corporate sector a theoretical and empirical investigation on the us economy 1973 2003 recent research has explored the growing financialization process in the u s and other advanced economies the term is a catch all phrase used to denote important changes in the structure of non financial corporations balance sheets including the growth of income from financial subsidiaries and investment as well as growth in the transfer of earnings to financial markets in the forms of interest payments dividend payments and stock buybacks this paper seeks to empirically explore the relationship between financialization in the u s economy and real investment at the firm level using data from a sample of non financial corporations from 1973 to 2003 i find a negative relationship between real investment and financialization first increased financial investment and increased financial profit opportunities may have crowded out real investment by changing the incentives of firm managers and directing funds away from real investment second increased payments to the financial markets may have impeded real investment by decreasing available internal funds shortening the planning horizons of the firm management and increasing uncertainty these two channels can help explain the negative relationship i find between investment and financialization

the control of politicians in divided societies the politics of fear autocrats in many developing countries have extracted enormous personal rents from power in addition they have imposed inefficient policies including pervasive patronage spending i present a model in which the presence of ethnic identities and the absence of institutionalized succession processes allow the ruler to elicit support from a sizeable share of the population despite large reductions in welfare the fear of falling under an equally inefficient and venal ruler that favours another group is enough to discipline supporters the model predicts extensive use of patronage ethnic bias in taxation and spending patterns and unveils a new mechanism through which economic frictions translate into increased rent extraction by the leader these predictions are consistent with the experiences of bad governance ethnic bias wasteful policies and kleptocracy in post colonial africa

the demands of finance and the glass ceiling of profit without investment in post keynesian recent works the profit without investment case has made its appearance as a particular accumulation regime one claiming along with two others the contractive and the expansive case that it can account for the different conceivable dynamic patterns at work in financialised capitalism actually profit without investment or rather profit beyond investment is in the very nature of capitalism it is not a special case the dividend channel is an essential component of profit formation we show that its enabling condition and what at the same time limits its width is firms resort to debt beyond a certain point the divorce between dividends and investment is such that firms policies leave their viable domain a domain bounded by their wishes to be self financing past that point any increase in profits runs into a glass ceiling in terms of outlets for those profits it is when the demands of finance i e of shareholders reach this limit that the three regimes identified in the literature make their appearance including the one called profit without investment seen in this light these regimes are therefore all cases of profit without investment ones that take on some reality and some plausibility when finance tries to drag profit without accumulation outside of its viable domain

integrating finance into global production networks coe n m lai k p y and wojcik d integrating finance into global production networks regional studies while successful in its aim of globalizing regional development the global production network gpn approach has thus far paid less attention to the role of finance in the dynamics of the global economy and regional development this lacuna is significant as finance is arguably even more globalized and networked than production to address this gap the paper distils the concept of the global financial network gfn from financial geography and related scholarship with advanced business services world cities and offshore jurisdictions at the core interactions between the gpn and the gfn are discussed focusing on the financing and financializing of gpns and the co evolution of globalization and financialization integrating finance into gpn research entails more than a simple extension of the approach it would also enrich it conceptually and enable it methodologically and empirically

disordering fantasies of coal and technology carbon capture and storage in australia abstract one of the main ways that continued use of coal is justified and compensated for is through fantasies of technology this paper explores the politics of carbon capture and storage ccs technologies in australia these technologies involve capturing co2 emissions usually to store them safely underground in a process called geo sequestration in australia the idea of clean coal has been heavily promoted and is a major part of co2 emissions reduction plans despite the technological difficulties the lack of large scale working prototypes the lack of coal company investment in such research and the current difficulties in detecting leaks this paper investigates the ways that the politics of clean coal have functioned as psycho social defence mechanisms to prolong coal usage assuage political discomfort and anxiety and increase the systemic disturbance produced by coal power

bargaining and fighting the impact of regime type on war onset duration and outcomes recent research suggests that democracies have advantages and disadvantages in wars democracies are more likely to win the wars they initiate and the ones in which they are targeted wars initiated by democracies are also uniformly shorter and less costly than wars initiated by nondemocracies however democracies are also less likely to continue fighting and less likely to win as war drags on democracies are also particularly likely to be targeted we present a bargaining model that reconciles these divergent findings the model explains why democracies are more likely to win but are also more likely to settle and more likely to be targeted than other types of regimes the model s explanation of these facts differs in important ways from existing explanations the model also suggests several new hypotheses relating regime type to the terms of settlement and the onset of war

foreign direct investment and de industrialisation the purpose of this study is to discuss the various issues regarding de industrialisation and to systematically analyse the causes of this phenomenon in addition the effect of the recent increase in foreign direct investment on de industrialisation will be analysed unlike extant studies this study employs a more reliable method of estimation known as the generalised method of moments system for establishing the importance of foreign direct investment fdi with regard to de industrialisation for a general assessment of the different factors of de industrialisation including fdi this study classifies the causes of de industrialisation in oecd countries into external and internal factors as a result the analysis has proved that not only internal and external factors are major factors of de industrialisation fdi inflow and outflow are also major factors

regime and leader instability under two forms of military rule the finding that military regimes are more fragile than other authoritarian regimes represents one of the few stylized facts in comparative politics however the existing literature contains subst

rationalist explanations for war realist and other scholars commonly hold that rationally led states can and sometimes do fight when no peaceful bargains exist that both would prefer to war against this view i show that under very broad conditions there will exist negotiated settlements that genuinely rational states would mutually prefer to a risky and costly fight popular rationalist and realist explanations for war fail either to address or to explain adequately what would prevent leaders from locating a less costly bargain essentially just two mechanisms can resolve this puzzle on strictly rationalist terms the first turns on the fact that states have both private information about capabilities and resolve and the incentive to misrepresent it the second turns on the fact that in specific strategic contexts states may be unable credibly to commit to uphold a mutually preferable bargain historical examples suggest that both mechanisms are empirically plausible

running out of steam manufacturing in malaysia this article examines the process of deindustrialisation in developing countries looking at the case of malaysia it provides a framework to examine how industrial structure and domestic technological capabilities are affected by the wider challenges of late industrialisation changes in global accumulation and domestic class formations it discusses the emerging evidence of malaysia s premature deindustrialisation and how this is the result of broader accumulation strategies that were primarily driven by internal factors related to the emergence of a malay middle class and supported by changes in global accumulation processes related to the development of global production networks and financialisation

explaining deindustrialization globalization failure or success although sociologists have expressed growing interest in globalization they have devoted little sustained empirical attention to the many claims made in its name i focus on the link that has been drawn between globalization and the deindustrialization of the advanced industrial societies to examine this i employ a pooled time series of cross sections data set that combines observations on 18 oecd nations across the 1968 1992 period fixed effects regression models that control for unmeasured country specific effects reveal support for arguments that implicate foreign direct investment and north south trade in the declining percentage of the labor force employed in manufacturing in the oecd countries regression results also show that deindustrialization across this period is largely explained by a model that combines an attention to the post golden age troubles of northern manufacturing with classic generalizations of the process of development interpretation of the empirical findings is tempered by an exercise in counterfactual history which reveals that deindustrialization would have been considerable in these countries even if the upswings in direct investment and southern imports had not occurred or if the performance of the manufacturing sector had been stronger

making it personal regime type and nuclear proliferation study after study has found that regime type has little or no effect on states decisions to pursue nuclear weapons we argue however that conventional approaches comparing the behavior of democracies to that of nondemocracies have resulted in incorrect inferences we disaggregate types of nondemocracies and argue that leaders of highly centralized personalistic dictatorships are particularly likely to view nuclear weapons as an attractive solution to their concerns about regime security and face fewer constraints in pursuing nuclear weapons than leaders of other types of regimes combining our more nuanced classification of regime type with a more theoretically appropriate empirical approach we find that personalist regimes are substantially more likely to pursue nuclear weapons than other regime types this finding is robust to different codings of proliferation dates and a range of modeling approaches and specifications and has significant implications for both theory and policy

dictators and their viziers endogenizing the loyalty competence trade off the possibility of treason by a close associate has been a nightmare of most autocrats throughout history more competent viziers are better able to discriminate among potential plotters and this makes them more risky subordinates for the ruler to avoid this rulers especially those who are weakandvulnerable sacrificethecompetenceoftheiragents hiringmediocrebutloyalsubordinates furthermore any use of incentive schemes by a personalistic dictator is limited by the fact that all punishments are conditional on the dictator s own survival we endogenize loyalty and competence in a principal agent game between a dictator and his viziers in both static and dynamic settings the dynamic model allows us to focus on the succession problem that insecure dictators face jel d72 h00 c72 c82

high definition television assessing demand forecasts for a next generation consumer durable high definition television promises to be the next generation of television this technology has broad implications for consumer markets as well as the underlying manufacturing technology development and r d activities of firms under increasing pressure from various groups the u s government must make major policy and funding decisions based on its assessment of the likely demand for hdtv three published reports which forecast sales of hdtv after its scheduled introduction in the mid 1990s are available unfortunately these forecasts offer widely differing perspectives on hdtv s potential this paper presents an approach that links product segmentation based on historical demand parameters and marketing and manufacturing related variables and demand forecasting for new products the published hdtv forecasts are then assessed using this segmentation scheme differing from the congressional budget office s earlier evaluation this analysis indicates that one report is consistent with historical d

capital formation and unemployment this paper criticizes the current enthusiasm for labour market policies as the main route to employment creation in oecd countries such policies are normally seen as a means of encouraging more employment on existing capital stock this approach is one sided and downplays the equally important task of increasing productive capacity with more investment in productive capacity conventional labour market policies for increasing employment would be more effective and some might be unnecessary the paper analyses the role of capital stock within the framework of a simple nairu model based on previous work by the author it also presents some empirical evidence copyright 1995 by oxford university press

determinants of labour s income share in the era of financialisation numerous studies have analysed the decline in the labour share of income but only few have linked it to the increase in financialisation the process of financialisation can roughly be described as an increasing importance of the financial sector that had an impact on the distribution between wages and profits on the one hand and retained earnings and financial income in the form of dividends and interests on the other hand this article seeks to explore the relationship between financialisation and labour s share of income using a time series cross sectional dataset of 13 countries over the time period from 1986 until 2007 the results suggest that there is indeed a relationship between increasing dividend and interest payments of non financial corporations and the decline of the share of wages in national income other factors that can account for the decline relate to globalisation and a decrease in the bargaining power of labour

the effects of financialization on investment evidence from firm level data for the uk this paper estimates the effects of financialization on physical investment in the uk using panel data based on balance sheets of publicly listed non financial companies supplied by worldscope for the period 1985 2013 we find robust evidence of an adverse effect of not only financial payments interests and dividends but also financial incomes on the rate of accumulation the negative impacts of financial incomes from interests and dividends are particularly strong for the pre crisis period our findings support the financialization thesis that the increasing orientation of the non financial sector towards financial activities is ultimately leading to lower physical investment hence to stagnant or fragile growth as well as long term concerns for productivity

capital market imperfections and financialization of real sectors in emerging markets private investment and cash flow relationship revisited summary the paper analyzes the impacts of cash flow from multiple investments in real and financial sectors on the new fixed investment spending of real sector firms the empirical results based on the euler equation approach and semi annual firm level data from two major emerging markets mexico and turkey suggest that profits and rates of returns from fixed and financial assets have differential effects on fixed investment spending of real sector firms accordingly increasing availability and accessibility of alternative investment opportunities in financial markets can become instrumental in channeling real sector savings to short term financial investments instead of long term fixed capital formation and thus lead to deindustrialization

the financialisation offshoring nexus and the capital accumulation of us non financial firms the financialisation of the nonfinancial corporation has drawn the attention of many scholars who have identified two channels by which financialisation happens a higher proportion of financial assets compared to nonfinancial ones and a higher amount of resources distributed to financial markets one of the consequences of this is the decrease in investment parallel to financialisation many nonfinancial corporations have also engaged in an internationalization of their productive activities organizing them under global value chains surprisingly the intersections between the literature on financialisation and the literature on global value chain are still underdeveloped although for example offshoring may also explain the decrease in investment of nonfinancial firms this paper fills this gap using panel regressions for u s nonfinancial corporations between 1995 and 2011 we find evidence that both offshoring and financialisation are determinants to the decrease in investment and that financialisation occurs mainly for firms belonging to high offshoring sectors la financiarisation des societes non financieres a attire l attention de nombreux chercheurs qui ont identifie deux canaux par lesquels elle se produit les bilans des societes sont composes d une plus grande proportion d actifs financiers relativement aux actifs non financiers et une plus grande part des ressources est redistribuee vers les marches financiers l une des consequences qui en resulte est la baisse de l investissement parallelement a ce mouvement de financiarisation beaucoup de societes non financieres ont developpe l internationalisation de leur production en l organisant selon des chaines globales de valeur il est surprenant de constater que les liens entre la litterature sur la financiarisation et celle sur les chaines globales de valeur soit peu developpee bien que par exemple le transfert de la production a l etranger puisse aussi expliquer la baisse de l investissement des firmes non financieres cet article vise a combler cette lacune en menant des regressions sur un panel de firmes americaines entre 1995 et 2011 nous montrons que tant le transfert de production a l etranger que la financiarisation sont des determinants de la baisse de l investissement nous montrons egalement que la financiarisation touche surtout les firmes appartenant a des secteurs fortement inserees dans les chaines globales de valeur

technology and demand forecasting for carbon capture and storage technology in south korea among the various alternatives available to reduce greenhouse gas ghg emissions carbon capture and storage ccs is considered to be a prospective technology that could both improve economic growth and meet ghg emission reduction targets despite the importance of ccs however studies of technology and demand forecasting for ccs are scarce this study bridges this gap in the body of knowledge on this topic by forecasting ccs technology and demand based on an integrated model for technology forecasting a logistic model and patent network analysis are used to compare the competitiveness of ccs technology for selected countries for demand forecasting a competition diffusion model is adopted to consider competition among renewable energies and forecast demand the results show that the number of patent applications for ccs technology will increase to 16 156 worldwide and to 4 790 in korea by 2025 we also find that the united states has the most competitive ccs technology followed by korea and france moreover about 5 million tco2e of ghg will be reduced by 2040 if ccs technology is adopted in korea after 2020

why financialisation hasn t depressed us productive investment the rate of capital accumulation in the usa has fallen markedly in recent decades works in the financialisation literature have tried to explain this phenomenon by arguing that rising financial payments and purchases have come at the expense of productive investment this article shows that such arguments are not supported by the data it also explains theoretically why rising dividend payments and the growth of corporations portfolio investment are compatible with the fact that corporations productive investment did not decline during the first two decades of neoliberalism in the usa there would necessarily be a trade off between these uses of funds if they were all funded out of current profits but there is no necessary trade off because borrowed funds are an additional source finally the article shows that the fall in us corporations rate of profit rate of return on investment in fixed assets fully accounts for the fall in their rate of capital accumulation

financialisation and tendencies towards stagnation the role of macroeconomic regime changes in the course of and after the financial and economic crisis 2007 09

domestic political survival and international conflict is democracy good for peace we build a game theoretic model where aggression can be triggered by domestic political concerns as well as the fear of being attacked in the model leaders of full and limited democracies risk losing power if they do not stand up to threats from abroad in addition the leader of a fully democratic country loses the support of the median voter if he attacks a non hostile country the result is a non monotonic relationship between democracy and peace using polity data we classify countries as full democracies limited democracies and dictatorships for the period 1816 2000 correlates of war data suggest that limited democracies are more aggressive than other regime types including dictatorships and not only during periods when the political regime is changing in particular a dyad of limited democracies is more likely to be involved in a militarized dispute than any other dyad including mixed dyads where the two countries have different regime types thus while full democratization might advance the cause of peace limited democratization might advance the cause of war we also find that as the environment becomes more hostile fully democratic countries become more aggressive faster than other regime types

service competitiveness and urban innovation policies in the uk the implications of the london paradox wood p service competitiveness and urban innovation policies in the uk the implications of the london paradox regional studies the policy models currently employed in british cities to promote urban economic innovativeness and competitiveness echo national policies by being science manufacturing and technology based yet the most powerful driver of both modern uk economic success and regional and urban inequality has been london based innovation this does not depend on local technological initiatives but on labour intensive knowledge based processes especially within the financial and business services this paper examines the importance of service based innovation and competitiveness in the english urban system dominated by london and its implications for urban innovation policies these currently offer little support to other uk cities either in gaining from london s experience of service led success or challenging its dominance over the most innovative tradable services wood p les po

explaining deindustrialization how affluence productivity growth and globalization diminish manufacturing employment1 this study analyzes why the world s most economically advanced countries have deindustrialized over the last few decades previous research focuses on three causal factors 1 rising consumer affluence and its propensity to increase demand for services more than for manufactured goods 2 faster productivity growth in the manufacturing sector relative to other sectors and 3 expanding trade linkages between the north and the south of the global economy the relative importance of these factors however is not fully understood because previous research has not tested all of these explanations simultaneously nor considered the indirect channels through which global trade may cause deindustrialization this study tests the three factors with two way fixed effects regression models and panel data on 18 oecd countries from 1970 to 2003 the results indicate that each factor makes significant contributions to deindustrialization and that global trade exerts both direct and indirect effects on employment

financialisation and the slowdown of accumulation over the past decades financial investment of non financial businesses has been rising and accumulation of capital goods has been declining the first part of the paper offers a novel theory to explain this phenomenon financialization the shareholder revolution and the development of a market for corporate control have shifted power to shareholders and thus changed management priorities leading to a reduction in the desired growth rate in the second part the link between accumulation and financialization is tested econometrically by means of a time series analysis of aggregate business investment for usa uk france and germany extensive test of robustness are performed for the first three countries evidence that confirms the negative effect of financialization on accumulation is found author s abstract

regime type the fate of leaders and war we propose and test a formal model of war and domestic politics building on recent evidence on the relationship between regime type the effect of war on the probability of losing office and the consequences of losing office the less the outcome of international interaction affects a leader s tenure and the less punitive are the consequences of losing office the more a leader is willing to make concessions to strike a peaceful bargain we demonstrate that our theory successfully predicts war involvement among nondemocratic regime types moreover our theory offers an intuitive explanation for the democratic peace compared to nondemocratic leaders the tenure of democratic leaders depends relatively little on the war outcome and democratic leaders fare relatively well after losing office thus democratic leaders should be more willing and able to avoid war especially with other democrats

the impact of surges in net private capital inflows on manufacturing investment and unemployment abstract we use local projection methods to examine the dynamic response of surges in net private capital inflows on the output and employment shares of manufacturing the investment output ratio and the unemployment rate high income countries are studied separately from emerging economies both from asia and latin america our sample covers the years from 1970 to 2010 we find that surges in high income countries do not magnify the trend toward deindustrialization however the persistent decline in the investment to gdp ratio and the rise in the overall unemployment rate suggest that surges may negatively affect longer run growth prospects and employment opportunities in these countries in middle income asian countries surges tend to induce deindustrialization in both output and employment in the medium run but they do not lower the investment to gdp ratio in middle income latin america surges speed up deindustrialization lower investment and raise economy wide unemployment

decomposing brazilian manufacturing industry dynamics in the mid 2000s macroeconomic factors and their sectoral impacts abstract the manufacturing industry s loss in participation phenomena called deindustrialization has been observed for the brazilian economy for a while and seems to have intensified from mid 2000s however the literature has not developed a consistent or integrated analysis of this process we have used a detailed simulation model to identify how macroeconomic factors such as exchange rate labor costs and household consumption have contributed to manufacturing dynamics our results indicate that the macroeconomic scenario explains a large portion of the manufacturing industry s participation loss the rise in households consumption and investment important factors in this period were responsible for dampening of the pressures coming from the currency appreciation and the workforce costs benefiting some industrial sectors but not avoiding the manufacturings participation loss

unproductive accumulation in the usa a new analytical framework in this paper i offer an innovative analysis of unproductive accumulation in the united states economy from 1947 to 2011 i develop a new theoretical and empirical framework to analyze the accumulation of capital in its productive and unproductive forms i also develop a methodology to compute marxist categories predicated on the idea that the production of knowledge and information is an unproductive activity that relies on the creation of knowledge rents in particular i provide new empirical estimates to uncover the shifting balance between productive and unproductive forms of accumulation the accumulation pattern observed during the 1947 1979 phase that prioritized productive accumulation gave way after the 1980s to a contrasting pattern prioritizing unproductive accumulation unproductive activity has been growing at a fast pace in terms of incomes fixed assets and employment among all forms of unproductive activity my approach places special attention on how the production of knowledge and information has constituted a rising share of total unproductive income and capital stock additionally productive stagnation and rapid unproductive accumulation have been related to greater exploitation of productive workers and to widening income inequality