the spatial and temporal diffusion of house prices in the uk abstract this paper provides a method for the analysis of the spatial and temporal diffusion of shocks in a dynamic system we use changes in real house prices within the uk economy at the level of regions to illustrate its use adjustment to shocks involves both a region specific and a spatial effect shocks to a dominant region london are propagated contemporaneously and spatially to other regions they in turn impact on other regions with a delay we allow for lagged effects to echo back to the dominant region london in turn is influenced by international developments through its link to new york and other financial centers it is shown that new york house prices have a direct effect on london house prices we analyse the effect of shocks using generalised spatio temporal impulse responses these highlight the diffusion of shocks both over time as with the conventional impulse responses and over space

modelling real interest rates abstract in this paper we model real interest rates as a generalised mean reverting ornstein uhlenbeck process empirical tests of the model using us and uk data for the period 1870 1975 shows that there exists significant mean reversion in both the us and uk for real interest rates inflation rates and nominal interest rates we present evidence for some stylised empirical facts which might be incorporated in models linking real interest rates inflation and nominal interest rates

house prices bank instability and economic growth evidence from the threshold model abstract this paper examines the effects of house prices on bank instability when gauged at various levels of income growth bank stability may respond differently to house price changes or deviations from fundamental values in an economic boom environment than in a bust circumstance a threshold estimation technique developed by hansen 1999 is applied to a panel of 286 u s metropolitan statistical areas msas over the period 1990q1 2010q4 we consider two house price indicators the house price changes and the house price deviations from long run equilibrium the results suggest the existence of income growth threshold effects in the relationship between house prices and bank instability specifically there are two income growth thresholds when using the house price changes and one income growth threshold when the house price deviations are applied robustness results using the non msas sample from 1995q1 to 2010q4 provide further evidence of income growth threshold effects

housing tenure and labor market impacts the search goes on abstract we develop two search theoretic models emphasizing firm entry to examine the oswald hypothesis the idea that homeownership is linked to inferior labor market outcomes and compare their predictions to three extant theories the five models have surprisingly different predictions about the labor market at both the aggregate and micro levels using a suitable instrumental variable strategy we estimate both micro and aggregate level regression models of wages and unemployment and compare the estimates to those predictions we find that while homeowners are less likely to be unemployed they also have lower wages all else equal compared to renters in addition higher regional homeownership rates are associated with a greater probability of individual worker unemployment and higher wages the outcome of a horserace between our new search theoretic models is mixed the wage posting model predicts observed unemployment impacts while a bargaining variant does a better job explaining observed wages and aggregate labor market outcomes overall we conclude that firm behavior is important for understanding the labor market impacts of homeownership because this is the case regional homeownership rates are not good instruments for individual tenure choice in empirical work and while individual homeowners may have inferior labor market outcomes as compared to renters from the viewpoint of society higher homeownership rates may result in greater job creation and overall production among other benefits

demand for sport this article reviews international literature on the demand for professional sport the first part presents a conceptual framework for understanding the sources and determinants of the demand for professional sporting contests the second part reviews empirical evidence on key determinants of attendance at sporting events and on other sources of demand such as broadcasting sponsorship and merchandising the review concludes that there is still much to be learned about demand for professional sport and that there are no simple lessons to be drawn from existing literature but important messages do emerge from studies of demand for attendance with regard to effects of uncertainty of outcome quality of contest and quality of viewing copyright 2003 oxford university press

migration housing market and labor market responses to employment shocks abstract one reason for the united states economic success is the willingness of its residents to follow jobs households decisions to move depend not only on job prospects but also on the relative cost of housing i investigate how the housing market affects the flow of workers across cities this occurs through at least two channels the relative mobility of homeowners versus renters and the relative cost of housing across markets i use homeownership rates to measure the former and use an index that measures house prices across metropolitan statistical areas msas and the price elasticity of housing supply to capture the latter to show how variation in the these housing market factors not only affects cross city migration but also the housing and labor markets i estimate a var model of migration employment wages house prices and new housing supply using annual data from 277 us msas for 1990 2006 the response functions based on labor supply and demand shocks show substantial variation when evaluated at different values of the homeownership rate the price elasticity of housing supply and relative housing prices i also allow for spillover effects in the model that reflect the impact of a labor demand shock in the nearest city

evaluating changes in league structure the reorganization of the scottish football league this article investigates the relationship between league structure and the demand for professional team sport using data from the scottish football league sfl 1971 to 1980 the sfl was restructured in 1975 and thus provides an excellent opportunity for the empirical analysis of the influence of league structure the general channels by which league structure affects demand are explored estimates are made of the impact on individual clubs by predicting what attendances would have been in the absence of the league reorganization finally the distribution of attendances across clubs is examined for evidence of the influence of league structure

demand substitution across us cities observable similarity and home price correlation abstract this paper studies demand substitution in the context of us cities demand substitution occurs when individuals on the margin between certain city pairs affect demand patterns in the aggregate causing certain cities to be better substitutes than others using a discrete model of city choice i derive two predictions for migration flows and test them empirically using city to city migration data from the us census i show that cities which are similar on a variety of observable measures have higher levels of gross migration flows in the steady state and higher net migration flows in response to labor demand shocks finally i propose pairwise correlation in metropolitan home prices as a price based measure of substitutability and show that it contains substantial predictive power for migration flows relative to observable similarity

interest rate variations mortgage prepayments and household mobility the volatility of interest rates and the deregulation of the mortgage lending sector have meant that many homeowners also own mortgages at terms more favorable than current interest rates this paper presents a model of residential mobility decisions and an empirical analysis that evaluates the importance of the ownership of these mortgages upon the mobility of homeowners the results based upon proportional and nonproportional hazard models indicate that these effects are quite large the empirical analysis distinguishes between different regulatory regimes that govern the assumption of existing mortgages and indicates the implications of these findings for the pricing and valuation of mortgage backed securities copyright 1987 by mit press

uncertainty of outcome or strengths of teams an economic analysis of attendance demand for international cricket a significant body of theoretical literature has argued that popular interest in sporting contests between teams is heavily influenced by how difficult it is to predict the result ex ante empirical research has however been unable to reach a consensus on the magnitude of uncertainty of outcome on demand in this article we seek to resolve this impasse by distinguishing between uncertainty of outcome in the short run and uncertainty of outcome in the long run we also show that it is important to control for the independent effect of absolute team strength when testing the uncertainty of outcome hypothesis using data on over 380 test cricket matches played in england australia and new zealand since 1980 we find that short run uncertainty of outcome has a significant impact on attendance demand and that absolute team strength has better explanatory power for attendance demand than does long run uncertainty of outcome our results suggest some policy implications for the management and organization of international cricket

the demand for semi pro league football in malaysia 1989 91 a panel data approach this article arguments the literature on the demand for professional team sports by estimating a demand function for attendance at home matches in the malaysian semi pro football league mspfl between 1989 and 1991 a single equation demand attendance function based on a pooled cross section and time series panel data set of 399 games is estimated by ordinary least squares a fixed effects dummy variable covariance model and an error components model our findings confirm the importance of market size and championship prospects for the home team but not the visiting team as well as divisional status and star players the first match of the season and derby matches also increased attendance

the demand for league football a demand equation is estimated for total football league attendances for the period 1948 49 to 1979 80 plausible values are obtained for the elasticities of demand with respect to income and to a price variable which includes the cost of travel to the stadium the values imply that football spectating is an inferior good with a low price elasticity equations are also estimated for the league s separate divisions the implications of the results for the football league clubs are discussed

sport event attendance as a function of education evidence from the uk abstractthis article studies the role of education in the decision to attend sporting events the overall objective is to verify whether more educated individuals are more likely to go to sports events than their less educated counterparts if education socializes persons to focus on sports it would then partially offset negative alternatives such as alcohol drug abuse and unlawful behaviours creating a positive externality sport events consumption is extensive highlighting the potential economic importance of the sports education externality to establish the role of education in sport attendance this article applies a probabilistic linear regression model to data from the uk the econometric formulation associates sport event attendance in the left hand side with education in the right hand side while controlling for the socioeconomic variables that are known to affect a consumer s decision to go to a sport event gender age income employment status children marital status and geographical

the econometrics of panel data handbook of theory and applications preface 1 formulation and estimation of econometric models for panel data m nerlove p balestra part i linear models 2 introduction to linear models for panel data p balestra 3 fixed effect models and fixed coefficient models p balestra 4 error components models l matyas 5 random coefficients models cheng hsiao 6 linear dynamic models p sevestre a trognon 7 simultaneous equations j krishnakumar 8 panel data with measurement error e biorn 9 specification issues b h baltagi appendix matrix algebra for linear models part ii nonlinear models 10 introduction to nonlinear models c gourieroux 11 logit and probit models cheng hsiao 13 incomplete panels and selection bias m verbeek t nijman 14 pseudo panel data m verbeek 15 point processes j p florens d fougere part iii selected applications introduction to the applications z griliches 16 dynamic labour demand models g bresson f kramarz p sevestre 17 econometric models of company investment r blundell s bond c meghir 18 consumption dynamics and panel data a survey j m robin 19 estimation of labour supply functions using panel data a survey f laisney w pohlmeier m staat 20 individual labour market transitions d fougere t kamionka 21 modelling companies divident policy using account panel data j f malecot 22 software review p blanchard index

college football attendance a panel study of the football bowl subdivision panel data with an instrumented real ticket price are used to estimate a regular season game day attendance and per cent of capacity regression equations better team performance whether short term season wins intermediate term bowls games in last 10 years or long term lifetime winning percentage higher undergraduate enrolment traditional rivalries and video coverage increase per cent of capacity used poor weather more rain or cloud cover higher travel costs and larger local population decrease it fan interest wanes as a season progresses but this is offset as a team wins more games games played near a national football league stadium those with conference opponents non fbs opponents and non bcs opponents have lower stadium utilization the substantive results of the analysis do not change when attendance is used as the dependent variable rather than per cent of capacity

winning games versus winning championships the economics of fan interest and team performance championship prospects as distinct from game winning prospects may contribute to a fan s interest in a particular sports team if so then both season length and the structure of championship playoffs help determine the equilibrium allocation of playing skills across the teams of a league evidence from a regression analysis of team attendance in baseball indicates that ticket demand depends in part on perceived flag winning prospects several patterns in the winning percentages of league leaders in the major u s team sports are consistent with the perspective that championship considerations influence the allocation of playing skills

location and survival in the national hockey league a model of professional sport franchises is introduced and used to explore the locational and other determi nants of profitability particular attention is paid to the effect of location on attendance market power and long run team quality whe n estimated using data for the national hockey league in 1977 78 the model indicates that location has an effect on each of these and tha t their combined effect on profitability is effective in explaining p rior and subsequent decisions concerning league expansion and franchi se relocation a number of other matters are also addressed includin g league arguments for antitrust exemption and league policies to res trict expansion copyright 1988 by blackwell publishing ltd

commuting migration housing and labour markets complex interactions commuting migration housing and labour markets are important for the overall economy and for the everyday life of many people commuting makes up a large part of all journeys world wide and many resourcedemanding transport investment projects are initiated to cope with this type of travelling in a range of countries increasing flows of national and international migration are central determinants of demographic developments in industrialised countries the working age population or those aspiring to be part of the economically active population constitute a large proportion of the total population consequently income earned through working represents a major component of total earnings in these economies cahuc and zylberberg 2004 in order to obtain an efficient labour market workers should locate and relocate to where the relevant jobs are to be found from an economic point of view commuting and migration are essential elements for obtaining a well functioning labour market fischer et al 1996 lux and sunega 2012 zabel 2012 finally housing is a basic good and for many people rents or loan repayments make up a relatively large proportion of their overall budget oecd 2011 moreover housing represents a dominating element of homeowners wealth or equity due to its central role during the financial and economic crisis starting around 2007 it has become clear that housing prices are important for the development of the overall economy in many countries for example muellbauer and murphy 2008 zabel 2012 housing and labour markets are linked in many ways when explaining these links it is useful to start with some of the distinguished features of housing markets as already mentioned houses frequently constitute a major part of households wealth moreover earned income from employment is a major

the demand for cricket the case of the john player league multiple regression analysis is used to estimate attendance functions 1976 and 1977 for the john player league one of the one day competitions in english top class cricket likely determinants of attendance are grouped according to whether they are economic locational team performance player attraction seasonal and residual preference factors the results suggest implications for the management of the game in respect of pricing strategy scheduling the structure of competition player qualification rules payment scales and television policy

performance and revenue in professional league football evidence from granger causality tests using a dataset comprising annual performance measured by final league position and gate revenue for 77 football league clubs which maintained unbroken league membership between 1946 and 1994 the relationship between performance and revenue is investigated using cointegration and causality tests a cointegrating relationship between performance and revenue is established in only 10 cases out of 77 although it is argued that some caution is required in interpreting these results due to the low power of the relevant tests in relatively small samples in granger causality tests more evidence is found of causality running from lagged revenue to current performance than of causality in the opposite direction while the dependence of performance on revenue seems to be greater for the smaller clubs than for the larger these results lend empirical support to the popular view that unless checked by mechanisms for revenue redistribution within the league the natural tendency is for success to become concen

attendance demand and core support evidence from limited overs cricket in this paper we construct and estimate a model for match attendances in english one day limited overs league cricket our dataset separates pay at gate spectators from club members enabling us to distinguish between the attendance decisions of casual spectators and those of the potentially more committed core supporters in addition to providing a more direct analysis of the relatively underdeveloped issue of core support we also investigate variability within the core apart from providing further evidence regarding demand determination in professional team sports we consider some specific policy implications particular to the peculiar sport of cricket

unaffordable housing and local employment growth evidence from california municipalities it is widely believed that unaffordable housing could drive businesses away and thus impede job growth however there is little evidence to support this view this paper presents a simple model to clarify how housing affordability is linked to employment growth and why unaffordable housing could negatively affect employment growth the paper then investigates this effect empirically using data on california municipalities for various reasons a simple correlation between unaffordable housing and employment growth cannot be interpreted as causal several empirical strategies are employed to identify the causal effect of unaffordable housing on employment growth the estimation results provide consistent evidence that unaffordable housing indeed slows local employment growth

local amenities and life cycle migration do people move for jobs or fun abstract do households move for jobs or fun and where do they go when they move we address these questions using the 1970 2000 us census based on a panel of quality of life and business environment measures households prefer msas in warm coastal areas and non metropolitan locations while firms prefer large growing cities in addition cities with improving business environments acquire increasing shares of workers especially workers with high levels of human capital cities with improving consumer amenities become relatively more populated by retirees further analysis of individual level migration decisions indicates that regardless of marital status young highly educated households tend to move towards places with higher quality business environments this tendency is especially pronounced among highly educated couples who are more subject to job market co location problems in contrast regardless of education couples near retirement tend to move away from places with favorable business environments and towards places with highly valued consumer amenities these patterns help explain why areas unattractive to both households and business have struggled as with upstate new york while the sun belt and other regions are thriving