bulls bears and market sheep abstract a deterministic excess demand model of stock market behavior is presented that generates stochastically fluctuating prices and randomly switching bear and bull markets

transaction costs in the theory of unemployment this paper addresses the problem of accounting theoretically for the persistence of large scale unemployment it briefly reviews some of the well known shortcomings of the keynesian account based upon sticky wages and prices and upon robert clower s 1965 concept of effective demand arguing that these shortcomings can be seen as a failure explicitly to integrate transaction costs into the theory of unemployment the main constructive contribution of the paper is an example of a simple macro model along the lines of robert barro and herschel grossman 1971 in which transaction costs are made explicit an essential part of this example is an externality of the sort suggested by peter diamond 1982 the example provides an account of persistent unemployment with many keynesian features yet without some of the keynesian shortcomings in particular it assumes perfect wage and price flexibility

producer s dilemma experiments abstract embedding profit motivated producers in a simple macroeconomic model creates a system where expansion by one producer is unprofitable but coordinated expansions are profitable in this system any level of aggregate demand is a potential equilibrium the ruling equilibrium is determined by expectations rather than close the model with behavioral assumptions behavioral observations are made of subjects in this incentive environment

a characterization of erratic dynamics in the overlapping generations model abstract in this paper we characterize and give examples o wide classes of utility functions which generate erratic dynamics in the standard deterministic overlapping generations model erratic dynamics refers to feasible trajectories which are bounded but which do not converge to stationary points or periodic orbits we show that such trajectories are pareto efficient we introduce credit into the model and show how a constant credit expansion rate can result in erratic trajectories in prices and the real value of credit finally we briefly discuss certain technical aspects of the mathematics used and the statistical nature of the dynamics that can arise from deterministic dynamical systems

imperfect competition and the keynesian cross abstract this paper presents a simple general equilibrium model in which the only non walrasian feature is imperfect competition in the goods market the model is shown to exhibit various keynesian characteristics in particular as competition in the goods market becomes less perfect the fiscal policy multipliers approach the values implied by the textbook keynesian cross

has discretionary learning declined during the lisbon agenda a cross sectional and longitudinal study of work organization in european nations this article explores changes in the organization of work in european nations over 2000 2010 results show a decline in the discretionary learning dl periods of economic expansion tend to be dl enhancing while periods of economic stagnation tend to reinforce the use of more hierarchical forms of work organization more generally the results show that cross country comparisons do not provide a sound basis for drawing conclusions about how the evolution of national labor market policies impact on changes in work organization over time within nations

the drivers of structural change the main goal of this paper is to provide an integrated survey of the literature devoted to identifying the drivers of structural change broadly defined as the process of reallocation of economic activity across the three broad sectors agriculture manufacturing and services using the ggdc 10 sector database this paper first presents the empirical facts associated with structural change in different regions of the world that is europe and the usa asia latin america and africa then reviews four determinants of structural change i changes in income ii changes in relative sectoral prices iii changes in input output linkages and iv changes in comparative advantage s via globalization and trade

entrepreneurship entrepreneurial training and x efficiency theory abstract a basic motivational component of entrepreneurship is an individual s commitment to overcome gaps and obstacles in imperfect markets research associated with n achievement theory indicates the possibility of the selection and training of potential entrepreneurs and therefore a means to increase the supply of entrepreneurs a tendency to glorify entrepreneurship and the use of a tight equilibrium concept make it difficult to integrate entrepreneurship into standard economic theory despite the desirability of doing so x efficiency theory accommodates a non heroic view of entrepreneurs which in turn allows for the inclusion or entrepreneurial training in the model

competitive dynamics and economic learning an extended resource based view in this paper a conceptual framework for the analysis of economic learning is developed economic learning by analogy with organizational learning results in the development of economic competences or capabilities shared between firms which rest on a foundation of economic resources from which value is generated and economic routines through which resources are utilized it is the mobility of resources and their exchange and production dynamics along evolutionary pathways which underpins the plausibility of a notion of economic learning the paper elaborates this framework as a resource based view rbv of the economy as a whole as an extension of the rbv of the firm such a framework captures the dynamics of exchange and circulation of technologies know how and intangible assets as well as of tangible assets and capital goods it is concerned with investment behavior by entrepreneurs rather than with the behavior of producers and consumers in goods and services markets within this resource economy framework it is possible to generate an account of the resource dynamics that underpin production of goods and services including resource propagation diffusion imitation replication and recombination these processes encompass evolutionary pressures experienced through resource variation selection and retention entrepreneurial initiatives take the form of resource recombinations while resource innovation captures the creation of new economic resources such as technological standards such a perspective brings into focus the resource specialization and configurations that drive real economies within firms and between firms that translates into enhanced or diminished performance of the economy as a whole copyright 2003 oxford university press

modeling the experimentally organized economy complex dynamics in an empirical micro macro model of endogenous economic growth abstract the swedish micro to macro model moses is used to show how complex economic behavior emerges from interacting boundedly rational agents the simulation model has been calibrated using business firm data non linearities arise in its specification of technology the distribution of firm characteristics and in the rules that govern entry and exit the model economy is characterized by a restless competitive growth process that is normally robust but that now and then generates phases of local disorderly behavior including for some parameter settings the collapse of entire sectors the model explains why government agents have difficulty predicting the reactions of the economy to policies suggesting that government treads cautiously in order not to do more harm than good

the effects of monetary policy at different stages of economic development abstract the effects of monetary policy vary significantly across countries in particular recent empirical work finds evidence of a tobin effect in high income countries and a reverse tobin effect in less developed economies we present a neoclassical growth model where money is required for investment and consumption purposes in contrast to standard cash in advance models the reliance on cash is inversely related to the extent of capital formation in this setting we demonstrate that the effects of monetary policy depend on the level of development in particular inflation adversely affects capital formation at low levels of income because there is a high reliance on cash and a high cost of capital by comparison the financial system operates more efficiently in advanced countries consequently monetary policy generates a tobin effect

structural transformation and the deterioration of european labor market outcomes this paper examines hours worked in continental europe and the united states from 1956 to 2003 the empirical work establishes two results first hours worked in europe decline by almost 45 percent compared to the united states over this period second this decline is almost entirely accounted for by the fact that europe develops a much smaller market service sector than the united states a simple model of time allocation is used to understand these patterns i find that relative increases in taxes and technological catch up can account for most of the differences between the european and american time allocations over this period

seasonal solow residuals and christmas a case for labor hoarding and increasing returns in aggregate unadjusted data measured solow residuals exhibit large seasonal variations total factor productivity grows rapidly in the fourth quarter at an annual rate of 16 percent and regresses sharply in the first quarter at an annual rate of 24 percent how much of the total seasonal variation in the measured solow residual can be explained by christmas the answer to this question is surprising with increasing returns and time varying labor effort christmas is sufficient to explain the seasonal variation in the solow residual consumption average productivity and output in all four quarters our analysis of seasonally unadjusted data uncovers important roles for labor hoarding and increasing returns that are difficult to identify in adjusted data prescott 1986 has argued that the variability of solow s residual is a reasonable estimate of the variability of exogenous technology shocks when solow s residual is measured using seasonally unadjusted data for the postwar u s economy it exhibits large seasonal variations growing rapidly in the fourth quarter at an annual rate of 16 percent and falling sharply in the first quarter at an annual rate of 24 percent this paper starts from the premise that it is implausible to attribute seasonal variation of this magnitude to changes in the state of technology we present a model in which all seasonal fluctuations arise from a single demand shift christmas this demand shift together with misspecification of the traditional production function leads to large seasonal variation in the solow residual we consider two candidates for misspecification labor hoarding and external increasing returns to scale even when technological growth is aseasonal either candidate in isolation can induce spurious seasonality in the solow residual our general equilibrium analysis indicates that 1 the economy s seasonal patterns in all four quarters may be a response simply to a fourth quarter consumption demand shift and 2 a combination of labor hoarding and external increasing returns is important for replicating these patterns in aggregate quantity variables for the postwar u s economy since our analysis identifies important roles for labor hoarding and increasing returns these results have implications for nonseasonal macroeconomic models indeed our analysis im

how are product demand changes transmitted to the labour market in the traditional keynesian and classical models the transmission of product demand changes to the labor market generally involves wage price sluggishness or countercyclical real wage movements in practice however real wages are often acyclical or procyclical and wages and prices are flexible over periods of several years this paper examines the main channels whereby product demand can affect employment under these conditions the analysis suggests that the effectiveness of demand management policies under wage price flexibility depends significantly on the availability of a limited number of supply side transmission channels copyright 1994 by royal economic society

the information content of quantity signals and downward inflexible prices it is shown that nonmarket clearing prices can persist in noncooperative nash competition among firms when the dis semination of information depends critically on the flexibility of pr ices the key to this explanation is that the value of the informatio n revealed by quantity signals when prices are fixed can be greater t han the short run profit obtained by an instantaneous price adjustmen t copyright 1987 by the editors of the scandinavian journal of economics

which sectors make poor countries so unproductive which sectors are most responsible for the low total factor productivities of developing countries to answer this question we develop a new framework for sectoral development accounting applying this framework to the penn world table we find that in equipment construction and food the sectoral tfp differences between developing countries and the united states are much larger than in the aggregate however in manufactured consumption the sectoral tfp differences are about equal to the aggregate tfp differences and in services they are much smaller we show that our level of disaggregation allows us to reconcile the results of existing studies of sectoral productivity differences which have focused on noncomparable two sector decompositions of the aggregate data we also show that our results help shed light on existing theories of aggregate tfp differences

disequilibrium economic dynamics a post schumpeterian contribution abstract adaptive economizing in a decentralized economy with alternative technologies and scarce resources leads to various kinds of locally unstable behavior economic disequilibrium is the rule in such a world and requires the presence of market mechanisms that make possible continued viability if in addition to local instability economies are also globally unstable as considerable evidence suggests then the discovery and application of new structure is essential a complete dynamic theory of economic change must therefore be based not only on conventional rationality and routinely adapting behavior but on a superior faculty which may perhaps best be called creative intelligence

micro heterogeneity of firms and the stability of industrial growth abstract in the micro macro m m model moses real swedish firms make independent decisions in markets schumpeterian innovative activities and wicksellian capital market disequilibria generate a growth cycle production and investment decisions in firms are dynamically coordinated by markets for products labor and capital under different market regimes as to speed intensity of competitive processes and of innovative activity by varying market regime ceteris par leux long term growth rates of the economy can be generated at cliffe as much as between the industrial countries during the last 50 years high speed market processes increase output growth for long periods but make the model economy sensitive to disturbances that eventually generate a severe depression simulation results suggest the importance for stable macroeconomic growth of a steady input of innovative technical change through new investment new entry and exit to preserve micro diversity of structures

job polarization in europe the structure of employment is always changing and economists are always trying to understand those changes in the 1990s the idea of skill biased technological change sbtc was used to understand the shift in employment toward more educated workers see david h autor and lawrence f katz 1999 for a survey however in recent years it has become appar ent that a more nuanced approach is needed the idea of sbtc might lead one to predict a uni form shift in employment away from low skilled and toward high skilled occupations but studies for the united states autor katz and melissa s kearney 2006 and the united kingdom goos and manning 2007 have shown that there is growth in employment in both the high est skilled professional and managerial and lowest skilled personal services occupations with declining employment in the middle of the distribution manufacturing and routine office jobs this is what goos and manning 2007 term job polarization although see the introduc tion to goos and manning 2007 for antecedents of these ideas there are several hypotheses about the rea sons for job polarization first the routiniza tion hypothesis first put forward by autor frank levy and richard murnane 2003 sug gests that the effect of technological progress is to replace routine labor which tends to be clerical and craft jobs in the middle of the wage distribution second there is the view that globalization in general and offshoring in par ticular is an important source of change in the job structure in the richest countries see for example alan s blinder 2007 third there may be a link between job polarization and

collective learning effective demand loss of work and loss of direction the growing regional divide within the uk mackay r r and davies r collective learning effective demand loss of work and loss of direction the growing regional divide within the uk regional studies the local economy relies on a division of labour that develops highly specialized skills in searching for an understanding of the growing work gap within the united kingdom emphasis is placed on recessions that connect to loss and redundancy of physical and human capital high levels of regional unemployment following deindustrialization convert into high levels of regional non work in later years the loss of an economic base leaves a gap in the community and economy that people struggle to bridge market forces work strongly against certain groups in society including those at some disadvantage in the labour market mackay r r and davies r

structural change and economic growth this paper presents a model in which a country s measured average propensity to save endogenously rises when its economy industrializes the model has agricultural and manufacturing sectors only agriculture uses land if at early dates income per capita is low agricultural consumption is important land is valuable and capital gains on land may constitute most wealth accumulation leaving the country s nipa aps low if exogenous technological progress raises incomes over time engel s law shifts demand to manufactured goods then land s portfolio importance relative to reproducible capital diminishes and the national income and products account saving rate can rise this paper presents a model illustrating that structural change due to the operation of engel s law can systematically affect an economy s measured saving rate according to the model a country s national income and product account average propensity to save will rise naturally if and when technological progress sufficiently lifts its income per capita this suggests a new interpretation of time series evidence while saving rates historically tend to be higher after industrialization than before one cannot automatically infer that changing wealth accumulation behaviour led to modernization rather structural change accompanying growth may have caused the rise in saving rates this paper also warns that international trade could lead to a contrasting pattern in cross sectional data highincome nations might contemporaneously have lower measured saving rates than poor countries recent work by mankiw romer and weil 1992 islam 1995 mankiw 1995 and others investigates long run patterns the analyses assume that each economy has attained or is moving toward a steady state equilibrium as in solow 1956 a country s steady state level of per capita gdp depends on its average propensity to save aps its rate of population growth the efficiency of its production sector etc regression outcomes seem consistent with the solow model s prediction that a higher aps will ceteris paribus lead to a higher level of income per capita the idea is that heterogeneity of exogenous preferences leads to international differences in aps s and in turn to long run differences

how europe s economies learn a comparison of work organization and innovation mode for the eu 15 this article explores the link between the organization of work and innovation by developing national aggregate indicators for the eu member states of organizational forms and innovation modes how firms innovate the organizational indicators are constructed from the third european survey of working conditions results for 8081 salaried employees in 2000 the innovation mode indicators are calculated using the results of the third community innovation survey cis 3 for innovation activities between 1998 and 2000 the analysis shows that in nations where work is organized to support high levels of discretion in solving complex problems firms tend to be more active in terms of innovations developed through their in house creative efforts in countries where learning and problem solving on the job are more constrained and little discretion is left to the employee firms tend to engage in a supplier dominated innovation strategy their technological renewal depends more on the absorption of innovations developed elsewhere these patterns remain when we divide the economies into manufacturing and services the results suggest that in order to understand national systems of innovation it is necessary to bring the mode of organization of work into the analysis early conceptions of national innovation systems were built upon an analysis of interactive learning between producers and users now the analysis needs to be founded also on an understanding of how people interact and learn at the workplace in different national economies the results also suggest that european policy efforts to improve innovation performance as part of the revised lisbon strategy would benefit from a stronger focus on the diffusion of innovative forms of work organization a step in this direction would be to develop indicators of work organization that could be directly linked to innovation performance

comments on arrow and on lucas such a number of interesting and provocative things are put forward in lucas and in arrow in this issue that i would like to be able to dissect them in detail for example lucas states that the problem of controlling inflation has been successfully solved in a scientific sense p s405 i am tempted to explore the limits of the set of problems that might be said to be scientifically solved in the lucas sense but i fear that this would take up a good deal of space arrow deplores the use of homogeneity assumptions as a device for adding content to otherwise inconclusive economic theories but presumably he does not believe that the sonnenschien mantel debreu theorem is the ultimate conclusion regarding the useful content of the propositions of general equilibrium theory some restrictions of intermediate strength are presumably called for and i would like to make the case that strong empirical generalizations about the nature of human actors such as those describing the biological requirements for survival are available and relevant in this connection this too would take some space to develop in detail though not as much as the first subject given the constraints i must choose a focus i will focus on what i take to be the main message that lucas has put forward regarding the relationship between adaptive behavior and the rationality assumptions employed in standard economic theory this message is recognizable as the intellectual descendant of similar discussions by friedman and machlup in the 1940s and 1950s and the ideas involved remain extremely influential in the discipline today i will present and comment on my own statement of this position which i following blaug 1980 will call the classic defense of the rationality as

automobiles and the national industrial recovery act evidence on industry complementarities this paper investigates the automobile industry code negotiated in 1933 and modified in 1935 under the national industrial recovery act the amended code contained a provision calling for automobile producers to alter the timing of new model introductions and the annual automobile show as a means of regularizing employment in the industry our analysis of this period provides evidence against the hypothesis that changes in fundamentals led to the dramatic changes in the seasonal pattern of production and sales starting in 1935 instead it appears that the national industrial recovery act succeeded in coordinating activity on an alternative nash equilibrium

the role of the structural transformation in aggregate productivity we investigate the role of sectoral differences in labor productivity in explaining the process of structural transformation the secular reallocation of labor across sectors and the time path of aggregate productivity across countries using a simple model of the structural transformation that is calibrated to the growth experience of the united states we measure sectoral labor productivity differences across countries productivity differences between rich and poor countries are large in agriculture and services and smaller in manufacturing moreover over time productivity gaps have been substantially reduced in agriculture and industry but not nearly as much in services in the model these sectoral productivity patterns generate implications that are broadly consistent with the cross country evidence on the structural transformation aggregate productivity paths and relative prices we show that productivity catch up in industry explains about 50 percent of the gains in aggregate productivity across countries while low relative productivity in services and the lack of catch up explains all the experiences of slowdown stagnation and decline observed across countries

modes of economizing behavior experimental evidence abstract in addition to more or less elaborate explicity rational procedures economic choices in reality are frequently made by trial and error imitation following an authority habit thoughtless impulse and hunch presenting results from a number of experiments that explicity incorporate decision cost this paper explores the extent to which these alternative decision making modes can lead to optimal choices

structure and cycles abstract on the basis of a neo austrian representation of the production process we show how recurrent cycles can emerge from a distortion of productive capacity which hamper the viability of changes that imply structural modifications even the quickest and most complete adaptation of the structure of productive capacity cannot prevent the economy from bearing fluctuations it can only make them regular

rational choice and erratic behaviour in this paper we show that rational choice in a stationary environment can lead to erratic behaviour when preferences depend on experience we mean by erratic behaviour choice sequences that do not converge to a long run stationary value or to any periodic pattern early investigations of the effects of experience on choice goes back to pareto see also benhabib 1979 some keynesian theories of the consumption function incorporate the effects of experience and habit formation on current levels of consumption duesenberry 1949 modigliani 1949 and brown 1952 a general model of experience dependent choice was described in day 1970 and investigated in day and kennedy 1971 while the specific issue of the existence of stable representable long run consumer demand when tastes vary endogenously has been treated by gorman 1967 pollak 1970 1976 weizsaicker 1971 mccarthy 1974 and hammond 1976 pollak gave conditions for the representability of long run choice when the equations of preference dependence are linear and utility additive hammond in a generalization of these findings provides conditions for stable representable long run choice when preferences are acyclic a condition which in essence assures convergence to a long run choice

costly optimization an experiment abstract an experimental technique is developed and used to examine how human subjects make choices when optimization is costly the total cost of making a choice is defined to include two parts 1 the direct cost of making the decision and 2 the indirect cost of making a choice that is not best among the available alternatives the total cost of choice for subjects in the experimental economy ranged from 15 to 42 percent of the economy s resources the hypothesis that agents are rational on average was strongly rejected while the hypothesis that agents are rational in the long run fared better

least squares learning and the stability of equilibria with externalities this paper studies the stability of competitive equilibria in a model of aggregate employment when the representative agent uses a least squares forecasting procedure it is shown that the pareto inferior low employment steady state is always unstable under least squares learning even if it is stable under perfect foresight the high employment steady state is stable under learning if and only if it is saddle point stable under perfect foresight this weakens multiple equilibrium theories of coordination failure that purport to explain persistently high unemployment the pareto superior high employment steady state will be the focal point of individual forecasting

corporate debt overhang and macroeconomic expectations one way in which corporate financial structure affects macroeconomic performance is by creating debt overhang debt overhang occurs when existing debt deters new investment because the benefits from new investment will go to the existing creditors not to the new investors if the economy is booming debt overhang will not bind because the returns to investing are high if the economy is stagnant debt overhang will bind because the returns to investing are low as a result high levels of debt can create multiple expectational equilibria in which animal spirits determine economy activity copyright 1995 by american economic association

relative prices and sectoral productivity the relative price of services rises with development a standard interpretation of this fact is that productivity differences across countries are larger in manufacturing than in services the service sector comprises heterogeneous categories we document that many disaggregated service categories such as transportation communication and finance feature a negative income elasticity of relative prices whereas the relative price of aggregate services is mostly driven by large expenditure categories in housing collective government and health that feature a positive income elasticity of relative prices we also document a substantial reallocation of expenditures in services from categories with positive income elasticities traditional services to categories with negative elasticities non traditional services as income rises using an otherwise standard multi sector development accounting framework extended to include an input output structure we find that the cross country income elasticity of sectoral productivity is large in non traditional services 1 15 smaller in manufacturing 1 05 and much smaller in traditional services 0 67 eliminating cross country productivity differences in non traditional services reduces aggregate income disparity by 58 percent a 7 9 fold reduction in aggregate productivity differences we also find that the heterogeneity between traditional and non traditional services has a substantial impact on aggregate productivity and that the input output structure is important in this assessment

money supply variability in a macro model of monopolistic competition the effects of changes in money supply variability are examined for a macro model of monopolistic competition increases in money supply variability raise demand uncertainty causing individual firms to produce more for inventory in addition expected profits decrease inducing a number of firms to leave the economy aggregate income then falls in spite of an increase in firm level production the result on aggregate income is standard but the results on inventories and the number of firms in the economy distinguish this monopolistic macro model empirically from conventional macro models when changes in money supply variability occur

structural change in a multisector model of growth we study a multi sector model of growth with differences in tfp growth rates across sectors and derive sufficient conditions for the coexistence of structural change characterized by sectoral labour reallocation and constant aggregate growth path the conditions are weak restrictions on the utility and production functions commonly applied by macroeconomists we present evidence from us two digit industries that is consistent with our predictions about structural change and successfully calibrate the historical shift from agriculture to manufacturing and services we show quantitatively that reasonable deviations from our conditions do not have a big impact on the properties of the model

the invisible hand plays dice multiple equilibria in sects markets religious participation is much more widespread in the united states than in europe while europeans tend to view sects more suspiciously than americans we propose an explanation for these patterns without assuming differences in preferences or market fundamentals we study a religious market where both demand and supply of spiritual services are endogenous such markets may have multiple equilibria further equilibria with more sects result in higher welfare and lower membership costs as secular societies tend to host on average more demanding sects

organizational change and skill accumulation we model the links between skills and changes in work organization as the proportion of skilled workers increases the economy travels through a sequence of organizational equilibria we show that as the relative supply of skills increases the organization of work becomes more decentralized both skilled and unskilled workers become more autonomous and perform a wider range of tasks decentralization spreads across firms at the expense of the old centralized organization based on a strict division of labor moreover as firms switch to decentralization their employment structure becomes more homogeneous and wage inequality stops decreasing these predictions are compared with empirical evidence based on french establishment level data and we find support for both of them this suggests that the long term increase in the skill level of the workforce may have been one important factor driving the recent introduction of new work practices by a large number of firms

structural change and the kaldor facts in a growth model with relative price effects and non gorman preferences u s data reveal three facts 1 the share of goods in total expenditure declines at a constant rate over time 2 the price of goods relative to services declines at a constant rate over time and 3 poor households spend a larger fraction of their budget on goods than do rich households i provide a macroeconomic model with non gorman preferences that rationalizes these facts along with the aggregate kaldor facts the model is parsimonious and admits an analytical solution its functional form allows a decomposition of u s structural change into an income and substitution effect estimates from micro data show each of these effects to be of roughly equal importance

has the quality of working life improved in the eu 15 between 1995 and 2005 this paper provides a mapping of quality of work and measures its evolution between 1995 and 2005 by using european working conditions surveys with a multilevel modelling we assess the sensitivity of observed trends to composition effects and country effects results suggest a decreasing trend in the quality of work working conditions have deteriorated while work has become more intense and less complex in germany and italy all indicators have worsened while other european countries have more mixed results

the effect of decision costs on the formation of market making intermediaries a pilot experiment abstract an economy is presented where trade is beneficial but not assumed if trade is to occur it must arise endogenously as either barter or mediated trade the role decision costs play in the development of trade is explicitly recognized the theoretical model is examined in an experimental setting by imbedding it in a computer trading game the data obtained from the experiments are used to examine the impact of decision costs on the development of trade and on the welfare of subjects in the experimental economy

finance innovation and industrial change abstract this paper investigates the impact financial structures upon industrial dynamics whenever the system is permanently characterized by unexploited opportunities for innovation highly bounded rationality and trial and error search processes in these circumstances it is argued specific financial set ups such as market based vs credit based mechanisms of allocation control and ownership transfer are likely to exert different influences on the rates and modes of industrial innovation relatedly one suggests some hypotheses on the links between financial systems and features of industrial evolution and some tentative taxonomies

unemployment labour markets and structural change in eastern europe labour markets in eastern europe michael burda unemployment is a major concern in the transforming economies of central and eastern europe the modern flow approach to labour markets suggests both that unemployment is an important component of the transformation process and that the labour market institutions adopted will influence the rate of unemployment in the long run to date eastern european countries exhibit considerable divergences in several of these institutions especially in unemployment benefit systems collective bargaining structures and active labour market policies an aggregate matching function is successfully estimated for data from czech and slovak employment offices emerging labour markets in the east function not so differently from those in the west the implied dynamics make both big bang and benign neglect unattractive strategies for transformation a mixed bang is more appropriate quantitative evidence about the effects on unemployment of different labour market institutions in oecd countries is used to make long term projections of equilibrium rates of unemployment in central and eastern europe given the labour market institutions now in place there with the possible exception of the czech republic high unemployment is likely to be pervasive and persistent

underemployment equilibrium with rational expectations in this paper i use some recent work in the microeconomics of imperfect information to construct a macro model the microeconomic theory suggests that atomistically competitive firms face kinked demand curves in this model there is a range of aggregate equilibria consistent with correct information i then show that individual firms can face a free rider problem in trying to move from one equilibrium to another by changing the price level monetary policy is not subject to this problem even if the policy is fully anticipated

beyond balanced growth balanced growth models are commonly used in macroeconomics because they are consistent with the well known kaldor facts regarding economic growth these models however are inconsistent with one of the most striking regularities of the growth process the massive reallocation of labour from agriculture into manufacturing and services this paper presents a simple model consistent with both the kaldor facts and the dynamics of sectoral labour reallocation

permanent and transitory components in macroeconomic fluctuations fluctuations in real gnp have traditionally been viewed as transitory deviations from a deterministic time trend the purpose of this paper is to review some of the recent developments that have led to a new view of output fluctuations and then to provide some additional evidence using post war quarterly data it is hard to reject the view that real gnp is as persistent as a random walk with drift we also consider the hypothesis that the recent finding of persistence are due to the failure to distinguish the business cycle from other fluctuations in real gnp we use the measured unemployment rate to decompose output fluctuations we find no evidence for the view that business cycle fluctuations are more quickly trend reverting this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

the evolving economy abstract a general theory of economic change development and policy is presented based on bounded rationality adaptive economizing in disequilibrium and creative intelligence the latter perturbs the economic system as in the schumpeterian theory but is here regarded as a fundamental faculty that both underlies the exercise of rationality and makes possible the imitation of new behavior that is at the basis of socio economic transformation moreover it generates the institutional innovations that insure continued viability in a globally unstable world

an extreme keynesian macro economic model with formal micro economic foundations this paper presents a formal general equilibrium model of a monetary economy in which agents decision rules are derived from the underlying preferences technology endowments and information firms face kinked demand curves for the reason given by j stiglitz 1979 customers know the price at their current firm but not at other firms the results are compatible with extreme keynesian macroeconomic predictions as presented by g woglom 1982 there is no automatic tendency to full employment and a change in the money supply may cause a permanent change in real output with no change in prices

who benefits most from employee involvement firms or workers employee involvement ei programs are the leading edge form of personnel and labor relations in the united states while many managers believe that these programs raise productivity and profits the statistical evidence that ei improves the performance of firms is equivocal the coefficients on measures of ei in production functions are usually positive but often insignificant or small commission on the future of worker management relations 1994 ch 2 peter cappelli and david neumark 1999 or contingent on other factors sandra e black and lisa m lynch 1997 casey ichniowski et al 1997 a detailed case study of ei has further confirmed these small effects that were found in large data sets kleiner et al 1999 if ei programs do not greatly affect productivity why does business think so highly of them in this study we argue that the main beneficiaries of ei are workers and managers we estimate the effects of ei on productivity using panel data on firms and the effects of ei on workers using a survey of employees and find that ei barely affects firm productivity but substantially improves worker well being we offer two explanations for this result

limited rationality and strategic complements the implications for macroeconomics this paper considers the implications of heterogeneity in information processing abilities for macroeconomic models that exhibit strategic complements the latter is the same concept that has received much attention in the recent macro literature under the headings keynesian coordination problems and positive trading externalities we consider environments in which agents vary in terms of their ability to form expectations and ask whether it is the sophisticated agents or the naive agents who have a disproportionately large effect on macroeconomic equilibrium we find that if macroeconomic interaction exhibits strategic complementarity then it is the naive agents who have a disproportionate impact

the keynesian recovery although modem macro economic analysis has almost immortalized keynes s is lm framework it has largely ignored the central message of the general theory this is attributable at least in part to keynes s failure to provide a clear concept of market organization as an alternative to the walrasian auction paradigm recent developments however in the theory of search and transaction externalities may ultimately provide that missing concept also work on indeterminacy in rational expectations models may direct the profession s attention away from wage stickiness and back towards the intertemporal co ordination problems that keynes saw as lying at the root of unemployment la reprise keynesienne meme si l analyse macroeconomique moderne a presque immortalis6 le cadre d analyse is lm de keynes elle a en gros ignore le message central contenu dans sa theorie generale cela est attribuable au moins en partie au fait que keynes n a pas propose une notion claire d organisation du marche qui puisse remplacer le paradigme de l encan a la walras cependant certains developpements recents dans la theorie des cofuts de la recherche d un emploi des cofuts de transaction et des effets extemes que ce phenomene entraine pourraient fournir un des ces jours le chainon manquant i1 se pourrait aussi que les travaux sur l indetermination dans les modeles d anticipations rationnelles puissent aider a faire que l attention des membres de la profession economiste cesse d etre braquee sur les problemes de rigidit6 des salaires pour se fixer de nouveau sur les problemes de coordination intertemporelle qui etaient pour keynes au coeur du probleme du chomage it is an honour to be giving the harold innis memorial lecture for 1986 i m especially happy to be giving it in 1986 because this is the fiftieth anniversary of keynes s general theory of employment interest and money and i d like to take this occasion to speak on the subject of the influence keynes s central the 1986 harold innis memorial lecture presented at the canadian economics association meetings in winnipeg 29 may 1986 robert clower david laidler michael parkin and douglas purvis provided useful comments on the original lecture canadian journal of economics revue canadienne d economique xix no 4 november novembre 1986 printed in canada imprime au canada 0008 4085 86 626 641 1 50 canadian economics association this content downloaded from 157 55 39 244 on fri 17 jun 2016 05 48 33 utc all use subject to http about jstor org terms the keynesian recovery 627 message in the general theory has had on contemporary macro economics and the influence it is likely to have in coming years if i had been asked to address this subject five or ten years ago i would have made the lecture very short although the keynesian is lm apparatus was still the main organizing device of all intermediate macro textbooks and of most policy oriented economists keynesian theoretical ideas had virtually disappeared from the leading journals having been displaced by unkeynesian ideas such as perfect wage flexibility perfect foresight the absence of involuntary unemployment the pareto optimality of business cycle fluctuations and so forth keynesian policy advice had become downright disreputable in some academic circles and was clearly on the defensive everywhere as for the status of keynesian ideas in society at large keynes once expressed the wish that some day economists could get themselves thought of as humble competent people on a level with dentists 1930 332 by 1979 keynesian economists had become thought of the way i used to think of my dentist when i was ten years old with a mouth full of cavities and he could see no reason for using novocaine not humble or competent but a menace to society who was all the more dangerous because of his belief that he knew better than others what was good for them and because he now had his hands on some of the crucial policy instruments since 1979 the public status of keynesian ideas has fallen even further the madmen in authority are now distilling their frenzy from other defunct economists but i see signs of some recovery in the status of those ideas within the discipline of economics signs that at least they aren t yet completely dead what i d like to argue is that there is an important aspect of keynes s central message that was never incorporated into the mainstream of macro economic theory that the failure to incorporate this aspect is largely responsible for the decline of keynesian theoretical ideas but that some recent theoretical developments offer hope that that failure may finally be rectified

an experimental investigation of transaction costs abstract this research builds on hoffman and spitzer 1982 and 1986 and coursey hoffman and spitzer 1987 and investigates how transaction costs may alter price patterns and economic efficiency in markets sixteen experimental markets were conducted which were designed to have different levels of transaction costs the transaction costs were of two types either as a consequence of strategic price setting due to potential holdouts or due to the number of traders who had to contract to trigger a synergistic payoff the results of the markets indicated that transaction costs had the anticipated influence on the price patterns and the efficiency of the markets

exchangeability and its economic applications abstract the symmetry possessed by exchangeability is the key to its usefulness the methods that are used to comprehend reality will edify insofar as they reflect this symmetry this is true of theoretical models empirical methods and algorithms indeed if the design of mechanisms is by rearrangement of natural matter their survival value will depend on the degree to which they retain the symmetry of the original matter this comment encompasses complex machinery and sophisticated political social and economic institutions the paper simply embroiders this observation

on the instability of mixed strategy nash equilibria abstract what behavior processes will lead to a nash equilibrium of an n person game two very general processes are examined for finite games with finite horizon generalized fictitious play strict mixed strategy nash equilibria are shown to be unstable for almost all finite games with discrete or continuous time generalized gradient processes mixed strategy nash equilibria are shown to be unstable

a simple macroeconomic model with monopolistic firms this paper presents a simple macroeconomic model in which firms outputs are imperfect substitutes and explores the macroeconomic implications of monopolistic competition the model is classical in some respects but keynesian in others multiple or unstable equilibria are not unlikely permanent price controls will in principle be desirable since they allow a permanent and efficient increase in aggregate output small costs of price adjustment may induce large deviations of output from the natural rate fiscal policy will generally affect aggregate output but the sign and magnitude of the government expenditure multiplier cannot be determined a priori

the welfare cost of unemployment in quebec harberger s triangle meets okun s gap using duality theory under rationing the authors derive a measure of the aggr egate welfare cost of cyclical unemployment which takes into account the value of additional nonmarket activities promoted by unemploymen t this measure is then applied to the quebec economy using benchmar k general equilibrium data for 1980 comparisons are made between the results obtained from the author s welfare measure and from the redu ction in gnp as measured by okun gap according to their simulations the overestimating bias of the cost of cyclical unemployment in que bec as measured by okun gap varies between 3 and 20 percent depend ing on the assumptions used the bias is more important however whe n a permanent increase in the unemployment rate is simulated

structural change in advanced nations a new set of stylised facts we provide new evidence on patterns of structural change in advanced economies reconsidering the stylised facts put forward by kaldor 1963 kuznets 1971 and maddison 1980 since 1980 the services sector has overwhelmingly predominated in the economic activity of the european union japan and the us but there is substantial heterogeneity among services personal finance and business services have low productivity growth and increasing shares in employment and gdp by contrast shares of distribution services are constant and productivity growth is rapid we find that the labour share in value added is declining while the use of ict capital and skilled labour is increasing in all sectors and regions

the emergence of economic organization abstract a model of decentralized markets is studied in which transactors follow simple adaptive rules transactions are coordinated by specialist trading firms that bear the costs of market disequilibrium starting from an initially autarkic situation in which none of the institutions that support exchange exist computer simulation shows that for a wide range of parameter values a fully developed market economy will emerge spontaneously moreover in virtually every case where a market economy develops one of the commodities traded will emerge as a universal medium of exchange being traded by every firm and changing hands in every act of exchange

sectoral balance in development a survey abstract this paper surveys the literature on sectoral balance to see how sectoral imbalances can retard economic development it examines definitions of sectors and balance provides background facts theories and planning tools reviews the debate on balanced growth and surveys two sector models of agriculture industry consumption investment and luxury basics interaction the open economy and the role of service nonmarket and unproductive sectors it argues that the examination of important development issues requires multisectoral analysis incorporating the insights of several of these models and that alternative models with different structural characteristics deserve attention

increasing returns and the foundations of unemployment theory current approaches to macroeconomic theory divide roughly into two basic schools of thought one approach typically associated with rational expectations views the economy as basically at or near walrasian market clearing equilibrium in which case it becomes very difficult to explain away convincingly the undeniable persistence at times of involuntary unemployment another approach views the underemployed economy as being in a state of temporary fixed price disequilibrium in which case aside from having to repress suspicions that the essence of effective demand failure might not have to do with prices fixed at wrong values there is a lot of rationalising to be done about why profitable adjustments are so slow this paper argues that something like an internally consistent theory of steady state involuntary unemployment is possible and even plausible the cornerstone of this third approach is increasing returns to scale which blocks unemployed agents from breaking out of a low level equilibrium trap unless there is overall coordination or stimulation a simple model is presented which contains the basic ideas

responders versus non responders a new perspective on heterogeneity this paper considers the implications of a particular type of heterogeneity one which characterizes a large number of economic environments but that has not received any systematic treatment in the literature the authors refer to this heterogeneity as responders versus nonresponders the paper begins by providing a general framework for the analysis of environments characterized by this heterogeneity and then shows how this framework can be used to help understand a wide variety of economic environments particular applications considered are near rationality network externalities and models of reputation copyright 1991 by royal economic society

monopolistic competition transaction costs and multiple equilibria abstract this paper analyzes the role of transactions costs in a macroeconomic model of monopolistic competition if there is sufficient increasing returns to scale in transaction technology the economy exhibits multiple equilibria even if the production technology is constant or decreasing returns to scale