impacts of wind and solar spatial diversification on its market value a case study of the chilean electricity market abstract renewable energy is expected to become the main electricity source in the world in the coming decades with solar and wind power taking a big share of the energy supply although there has been a remarkable advance on renewable energy technologies their integration is still difficult for regulators market designers and system operators due to the high variability and limited predictability of solar and wind resources measures can be adopted to ease their integration among them geographical diversification there is plenty of literature about the diversification of solar and wind resources and there is a common conclusion greater dispersion smooths out power production however literature on the effects of spatial diversification on the power system electricity prices and renewable energy market value is much scarcer this paper studies the effects of spatial diversification and questions whether integration policies are incentivizing the placement of renewable generators where they provide the highest value to the electricity system in chile using real data and a simplified dispatch model the analysis presented shows evidence of the effects of diversification on wind and solar market value in chile results suggest that spatial diversification has a strong positive effect on the market value of renewable energy especially in scenarios with active transmission and hydro storage constraints wind market value may vary up to us 10 mw h depending on the level of diversification and the spatial and temporal constraints of the system and given current storage capacity of hydro reservoirs the solar market value may increase us 5 mw h due to diversification if transmission capacity is enough even though these results must be observed with caution because they depend on the assumptions made there is an important effect of renewable spatial diversification that should be observed by regulators

investment risks in power generation a comparison of fossil fuel and renewable energy dominated markets abstract due to their high capital intensity weather dependent renewable energies res such as solar and wind face considerable investment risks in power markets in addition their uncertain production volumes also affect the investment risks of other plant types through the impact on power prices and residual demand increasing res shares thus potentially increase overall investment risks in power markets which many analysts consider to be a potential problem against this background this paper compares investment risks of different technologies in markets with increasing shares of variable res it further analyses how generation mixes are affected by these investment risks if the risks are evaluated on a stand alone basis or in a plant portfolio context of a private firm for this purpose a stylized investment and dispatch model is used to conduct monte carlo simulations from which risk measures are derived the results show that capital intensive res face the highest stand alone risks since their profits are most affected by the power price risk however the results further indicate that the stand alone risks of variable res decrease with their share in the market because of a negative correlation of output and price risk in addition res have a risk benefit in firm plant portfolios in terms of constituting a hedge against losses of fossil fuel plants this positive portfolio effect however rapidly decreases and becomes negative with increasing res shares in the market

decomposition analysis of co2 emissions from electricity generation in china abstract electricity generation in china mainly depends on coal and its products which has led to the increase in co2 emissions this paper intends to analyze the current status of co2 emissions from electricity generation in china during the period 1991 2009 and apply the logarithmic mean divisia index lmdi technique to find the nature of the factors influencing the changes in co2 emissions the main results as follows 1 co2 emission from electricity generation has increased from 530 96 mt in 1991 to 2393 02 mt in 2009 following an annual growth rate of 8 72 coal products is the main fuel type for thermal power generation which accounts for more than 90 co2 emissions from electricity generation 2 this paper also presents co2 emissions factor of electricity consumption which help calculate co2 emission from final electricity consumption 3 in china the economic activity effect is the most important contributor to increase co2 emissions from electricity generation but the electricity generation efficiency effect plays the dominant role in decreasing co2 emissions

the effects of wind generation capacity on electricity prices and generation costs a monte carlo analysis abstractwe use monte carlo analysis to examine the potential of increased renewable generation to provide a hedge against variability in energy prices and costs fuel costs electricity demand and wind generation are allowed to vary and a unit commitment and economic dispatch algorithm is employed to produce cost minimizing generation schedules under different levels of installed wind capacity increased wind capacity reduces the mean and the variance of production costs but only the variance of electricity prices wind generators see their market revenues increase while consumer payments and fossil generator profits do not considerably vary as wind capacity increases risk aversion is captured by considering the conditional value at risk for both consumers and producers the optimal level of wind generation increases as risk aversion increases due to the potential of wind to act as a hedge against very high electricity prices in high fuel price scenarios

economic growth and the evolution of water consumption in spain a structural decomposition analysis abstract the aim of this paper is to examine how technology processes of input substitution and changes in final demand all of which underlie economic growth influence water consumption this analysis is undertaken for spain during a significant socio economic period from 1980 the beginning of the democratic era to 2007 the onset of the current economic crisis to this end we construct water consumption series linked to a time series of input output tables generated for the spanish economy and we develop a structural decomposition analysis to study mainly changes in water consumption embodied in final demand we find that the growth in spanish demand all other things being constant would have implied an increase in water consumption almost three times the growth actually observed however this demand effect is largely offset by technology and intensity effects mainly due to changes in agricultural crops given the importance of the demand growth the final demand effect is also analyzed in detail broken down by categories as well as level and composition household demand and the increase of exports appear as key explicative factors

where the wind blows assessing the effect of fixed and premium based feed in tariffs on the spatial diversification of wind turbines abstract feed in tariffs fit are among the most important policy instruments to promote renewable electricity production the fixed price fit ffit which guarantee a fixed price for every unit of produced electricity and the premium based fit pfit which pay a premium on top of the market price are commonly implemented in the eu costs for balancing intermittent electricity production may be significantly higher with ffit than with pfit and ffit do not provide any incentive to produce electricity when marginal production costs are high in contrast pfit do provide strong incentives to better match renewable power output with marginal production costs in the system the purpose of this article is to assess the effects of the two tariff schemes on the choice of wind turbine locations in an analytical model we show that both the covariance between wind power supply and demand as well as between the different wind power locations matter for investors in a pfit scheme high covariance with other intermittent producers causes a decrease in market prices and consequently in revenues for wind power investors they are therefore incentivized to diversify the locations of wind turbines to decrease the covariance between different wind power production locations in an empirical optimization model we analyze the effects of these two different schemes in a policy experiment for austria the numerical results show that under a pfit scheme 1 spatial diversification is incentivized 2 the covariance of wind power production with marginal electricity production costs increases and 3 the variances of the wind power output and of residual load decrease if wind power deployment attains 10 of total national electricity consumption

explaining australia s increased share of isi publications the effects of a funding formula based on publication counts abstract australia s share of publications in the science citation index sci has increased by 25 in the last decade the worrying aspect associated with this trend is the significant decline in citation impact australia is achieving relative to other countries it has dropped from sixth position in a ranking of 11 oecd countries in 1988 to 10th position by 1993 and the distance from ninth place continues to widen the increased publication activity came at a time when publication output was expected to decline due to pressures facing the higher education sector which accounts for over two thirds of australian publications this paper examines possible methodological and contextual explanations of the trends in australia s presence in the sci and undertakes a detailed comparison of two universities that introduced diverse research management strategies in the late 1980s the conclusion reached is that the driving force behind the australian trends appears to lie with the increased culture of evaluation faced by the sector significant funds are distributed to universities and within universities on the basis of aggregate publication counts with little attention paid to the impact or quality of that output in consequence journal publication productivity has increased significantly in the last decade but its impact has declined

why did china s energy intensity increase during 1998 2006 decomposition and policy analysis abstract despite the fact that china s energy intensity has continuously decreased during the 1980s and mostly 1990s the decreasing trend has reversed since 1998 and the past few years have witnessed rapid increase in china s energy intensity we firstly conduct an index decomposition analysis to identify the key forces behind the increase it is found that 1 the high energy demand in industrial sectors is mainly attributed to expansion of production scale especially in energy intensive industries 2 energy saving mainly comes from efficiency improvement with energy intensive sectors making the largest contribution and 3 a heavier industrial structure also contributes to the increase this study also makes the first attempt to bridge the quantitative decomposition analysis with qualitative policy analyses and fill the gap between decomposition results and policy relevance in previous work we argue that 1 energy efficiency improvement in energy intensive sectors is mainly due to the industrial policies that have been implemented in the past few years 2 low energy prices have directly contributed to high industrial energy consumption and indirectly to the heavy industrial structure we provide policy suggestions in the end

risk return incentives in liberalised electricity markets we employ monte carlo analysis to determine the distribution of returns for various electricity generation technologies costs and revenues for each technology are calculated by means of a unit commitment and economic dispatch algorithm at hourly resolution this represents a considerable contribution to the literature as costs and revenues are determined endogenously which in turn allows the returns of midmerit and peaking plant to be examined market entry is determined on the basis of a heuristic while market exit is according to a predetermined retirement schedule the results show that ccgt is the investment technology of choice for baseload only portfolios while ocgt proves optimal when all technologies are considered the high capital costs of baseload generation reduce incentives to invest the methodology can be expanded to consider random outages revenues from scarcity prices capacity markets and ancillary service payments

economic drivers of greenhouse gas emissions in china abstract for china greenhouse gas emissions increased by 0 075 gigatons gt in the period of 1995 2000 and increased by 4 23 gt from 2000 to 2009 then reached the amount of 8 61 gt in 2009 different from the traditional analysis focused on accounting sectors greenhouse gas emissions under the production based responsibility this paper investigates sectoral ghg emissions in china in the period of 1995 2009 from the perspective of consumption based and income based responsibility we found that different metrics yield very different ghg emission responsibilities the sector of electricity gas and water supply has the highest ghg emissions responsibility based on the production and income metrics while the sector of construction is the largest emitter under the consumption metric in the light of the key driver analysis of ghg emissions from 1995 to 2009 based on the consumption metric the change in the final demand volume is the largest driver of increase in china s consumption based ghg emissions 17 18 gt the changes in the production structure and the final demand structure are other contributors 0 53 gt 1 46 gt the improvement to the intensity of ghg emissions is the main force for ghg emissions mitigation 14 86 gt according to the income metric the contributions of input volume changes input structure changes and ghg intensity changes are similar to the effects of consumption based responsibility 19 11 gt 1 13 gt 14 95 gt the difference is that the change in the production structure is another force that offset ghg increase 0 98 gt results in this paper can give some recommendation on mitigating ghg emissions in china for policy makers from production side demand side and supply side

structural decompositions of energy consumption between 1995 and 2009 evidence from wiod abstract energy is key to achieving sustainable development this paper explicitly distinguishes between the supply side of energy consumption and demand side of energy consumption and investigates the factors that affect the energy consumption across economies using data from the world input output database wiod this paper decomposes the relative changes of energy consumption into intensity effect production structure structural change in final demand total final demand effect and household consumption then it further decomposes production structure into inter industry structural effect and trade effect in intermediate inputs overall energy consumption growth is mainly driven by total final demand 55 04 increase at the world level but can be significantly reduced by intensity effect due to technological change 21 02 decrease at the world level there is heterogeneity of structure related effects across economies and within the same economy in both aspects of energy consumption in addition the trade effect and household effect are relatively small this paper provides an empirical framework for analyzing energy consumption in a globalizing world and suggests tailored and integrated energy policies

total factor energy efficiency in developing countries this paper uses a total factor framework to investigate energy efficiency in 23 developing countries during the period of 1980 2005 we explore the total factor energy efficiency and change trends by applying data envelopment analysis dea window which is capable of measuring efficiency in cross sectional and time varying data the empirical results indicate that botswana mexico and panama perform the best in terms of energy efficiency whereas kenya sri lanka syria and the philippines perform the worst during the entire research period seven countries show little change in energy efficiency over time eleven countries experienced continuous decreases in energy efficiency among five countries witnessing continuous increase in total factor energy efficiency china experienced the most rapid rise practice in china indicates that effective energy policies play a crucial role in improving energy efficiency tobit regression analysis indicates that a u shaped relationship exists between total factor energy efficiency and income per capita

is energy efficiency a driver or an inhibitor of energy consumption changes in spain two decomposition approaches abstract the 2000 2008 expansion period of the economy was accompanied by an important increase of energy consumption the desire of decoupling has led us to analyse the driving forces behind the energy consumption changes during this expansion period through a structural decomposition analysis sda based on the spanish input output tables previous decomposition has been supplemented by a logarithmic mean divisia index lmdi analysis of the energy consumption changes during a longer period 2000 2013 the results show that the energy intensity was the main inhibitor effect of the energy consumption changes of sectors of production not only during the recession but also during the expansion period secondly the energy intensity was a driver of the energy consumption change of households during the expansion period however during the recession period the energy intensity of private transport contributed to reducing energy consumption having an inhibitor effect therefore if the activity effect is still the most important driver the energy intensity effect has become the main inhibitor of energy consumption changes the energy policy recommendation is to focus on household energy consumption in the future if the spanish government aims to attain the eu energy efficiency objectives

an interindustry analysis of structural change and energy use linkages in the saskatchewan economy abstract the impacts of changes in final demand on energy use are analysed through the use of a combined energy use input output model of the province of saskatchewan through the use of various index measures the energy interdependence of the provincial economy is examined for the 1974 1979 period key sectors are identified whose final demand result in relatively large increases in provincial energy use the model is extended to analyse the interaction of changes in final demand on energy use the level of household income and employment

energy consumption in china past trends and future directions abstract in 2003 china s energy consumption amounted to 1678 million tonnes coal equivalent mtce making china the world s second largest consumer behind only the united states china is now also one of the largest oil importers in the world with an economy that is expected to maintain a rate of growth of 7 8 for decades china s role in the world energy market becomes increasingly influential this makes it important to predict china s future demand for energy the objective of this paper is to apply the bayesian vector autoregressive methodology to forecast china s energy consumption and to discuss potential implications the results of this paper suggest that total energy consumption should increase to 2173 mtce in 2010 an annual growth rate of 3 8 which is slightly slower than the average rate in the past decade the slower growth reflects expected slower economic growth and a decline in energy consumption due to structural changes in the chinese economy

structural change and energy use the case of the manufacturing sector in taiwan abstract this paper examines the role of sectoral shift and improvements in energy intensity of individual industries in aggregate manufacturing sector energy intensity changes in taiwan during 1971 1985 the divisia index approach is employed to decompose sectoral shift and energy intensity effects a major finding of this analysis is that changes in energy intensities of individual industries were the main influence in changes in aggregate manufacturing sector fuel and electricity intensities during the period sectoral shifts were found to contribute very little to the energy intensity changes

industrial co2 emissions from energy use in korea a structural decomposition analysis abstract this paper attempts to quantify energy consumption and co 2 emissions in the industrial sectors of korea the sources of the changes in co 2 emissions for the years 1990 2003 are investigated in terms of a total of eight factors through input output structural decomposition analysis changes in emission coefficient caused by shifts in energy intensity and carbon intensity changes in economic growth and structural changes in terms of shifts in domestic final demand exports imports of final and intermediate goods and production technology the results show that the rate of growth of industrial co 2 emissions has drastically decreased since the 1998 financial crisis in korea the effect on emission reductions due to changes in energy intensity and domestic final demand surged in the second period 1995 2000 while the impact of exports steeply rose in the third period 2000 2003 of all the individual factors economic growth accounted for the largest increase in co 2 emissions the results of this analysis can be used to infer the potential for emission reduction in korea

facts and fads in academic research management the effect of management practices on research productivity in australia abstract as a response to competitive market forces and governmental steering policies australian universities have strengthened considerably their internal research management in the last two decades this paper examines empirically the effect of management on academic research productivity the results suggest that management practices indeed seem to have some positive effect on research productivity and the effect is consistent in the earlier 1995 2000 and later 2001 2007 time period universities with a more intensive management approach not only have higher absolute level of research productivity but they demonstrate also faster growth in productivity an omitted variable bias and robustness of the results to the choice of the output measure are under a particular attention and call for some caution in interpreting the results

portfolio optimization of renewable energy assets hydro wind and photovoltaic energy in the regulated market in brazil abstract this study proposes a methodology for risk analysis and portfolio optimization of power generation assets with hydro wind and solar power considering the regulated contracting environment and the mechanism for reallocation of energy in brazil innovative stochastic models are used to generate synthetic time series for the random variables water inflow wind speed solar irradiance temperature of the photovoltaic panel and average generation capacity of the mechanism for reallocation of energy the simulation is implemented using the monte carlo method associated with a cholesky decomposition an economic approach is presented taking into account taxation and financing as well as the markowitz portfolio theory the results show that the initial correlation between the energy resources is altered by the cash flow model and mainly by the debt in the diversification process the complementarity between sources helps to reduce the economic risk the increase in debt increases the correlation decreases the return and risk and consequently affects the diversification process and economic results the mechanism for reallocation of energy significantly reduces the hydroelectric economic risk and increases the financial return which directly benefits the formation of portfolios

sources of change in industrial electricity use in the taiwan economy 1976 1986 abstract this paper applies an input output structural decomposition model in order to analyse the sources of change in the 1976 to 1986 electricity demands of the industrial sectors in taiwan various types of demand shifts technical substitutions and technological changes are identified the relative importance of 14 mutually exclusive sources of change is evaluated the results indicate that over the course of the study period while economic growth had the dominant impact on electricity use followed in importance by substitution effects effects due to technological change had an adverse effect being much weaker than those resulting from economic growth and substitution effects it is expected that this pattern will remain unchanged in the foreseeable future hence industrial electricity demand in taiwan will continue to grow

what causes the change in energy demand in the economy the role of technological change this paper proposes a simple and theoretically clear approach to the estimation of technological change in a multisector general equilibrium framework this study employs the multiple calibration decomposition analysis mcda to evaluate technological change that is responsible for changes in energy use and carbon dioxide emissions in the japanese economy in the oil crises period from 1970 to 1985 the mcda serves as an elementary way of separating structural change due to technological change from that due to price substitution effects capturing the interdependence among economic sectors the empirical result provides a better understanding of the effects on the economy of technological change in that significant period

structural decomposition analysis of physical flows in the economy many environmental problems can be attributedto the extraction and emissions of physicalsubstances increasing our understanding of theeconomic and technological driving forcesbehind these physical flows can contribute tosolving the environmental problems related tothem the input output framework is a usefulsetting in which to integrate detailedinformation about economic structure andphysical flows in this article a specificmethod in input output analysis is reviewed namely structural decomposition analysis sda it is based on comparative static analysis which decomposes historical changes of a policyvariable into determinant effects sda has beenapplied for example to analyze the demand andtechnological driving forces of energy use co2 emissions and various other pollutantsand resources this article examines thetheoretical aspects of structuraldecomposition in particular those concerningphysical flows and environmental issues furthermore the article includes an extensivesurvey of empirical studies

the european low carbon mix for 2030 the role of renewable energy sources in an environmentally and socially efficient approach abstract the european union s commitment to increase the presence of renewable energy sources in its portfolio has resulted in better levels of security of supply competitiveness and environmental sustainability this proposed work reviews european legislation regarding the promotion of renewable energy sources as well as the bibliography that applies portfolio theory methodology to energy policy this double revision gives rise to the question whether the share limits of renewable energy technologies anticipated for the european power mix in 2020 and 2030 are actually efficient the optimization model corrects for the attractiveness of renewable energy sources as opposed to conventional sources in terms of costs risks and pollutant gas emissions this model successfully and explicitly identifies the positive effect on the environment that is represented by the inclusion of renewable energy sources in the portfolio the goal is to minimize the cost and risk that society must bear to produce electricity in addition to compliance with european pollutant gas co2 so2 nox and pm objectives the results for 2020 indicate that the eu would not be able to reach its emissions reduction goals with the anticipated shares of renewable energy sources in 2030 achieving a lower emissions portfolio would not mean taking on greater costs although it would be necessary to assume a greater level of risk the anticipated shares of renewable energy sources 5 and fossil fuel technologies 15 would be overdimensioned in the forecasts analyzed in terms of technologies both nuclear and wind energy stand out both with shares above 20 on the contrary biomass and solar photovoltaic energies would be unnecessary in order to reach efficiency in any case one thing is clear the eu would be the master of its energy future if it prioritizes the importance of renewable energy sources in its efficient portfolio

the effect of globalisation on water consumption a case study of the spanish virtual water trade 1849 1935 abstract this paper aims to analyse the impact on water consumption of trade expansion in the first era of globalisation to that end we have chosen the case of spain a semi arid country with significant cyclical water shortages more specifically we are interested in answering the following questions what volume of water was required for exports of agricultural and food products how did this variable evolve over time which factors drove this evolution in short we wish to understand the impact on water resources of spain s entry into world agriculture and food markets firstly we examine virtual water trade flows in the long run secondly we attempt to disentangle certain major driving forces underlying these trajectories in order to establish the role played by trade in the final net balance of water a decomposition analysis da is applied our findings show the great pressures that the first globalisation imposed on not only domestic but also foreign water resources trade volumes as well as trade patterns were essential factors driving rising virtual water flows while yield improvements contributed smoothly to moderation in the expansion of water flows

technology international trade and pollution from us manufacturing pollution emitted by us manufacturers declined markedly over the past several decades even as real manufacturing output increased i first show that most of the decline in us manufacturing pollution has resulted from changing production processes technology rather than changes in the mix of goods produced i then show that increased net imports of polluting goods international trade accounts for only a small portion of the pollution reductions from the changing mix of goods together these two findings demonstrate that shifting polluting industries overseas explains only a minor part less than 10 percent of the cleanup of us manufacturing jel f18 l23 l60 o30 q52 q53

energy embodied in the international trade of china an energy input output analysis abstract growing international trade has not only positively affected the people s republic of china s china s economic development but also expanded the exportation of energy embodied in goods during their production this energy flow out will pose risks to china s rational utilization of natural resources as well as environmental protection in this paper we evaluate the energy embodied in goods produced in china during 1992 2005 and use input output structural decomposition analysis to identify five key factors causing the changes of energy embodied in exports direct primary energy efficiency primary energy consumption structure structure of intermediate inputs structure of exports and scale of exports for the three sub periods of 1992 1997 1997 2002 and 2002 2005 results show that china is a net exporter of energy and the energy embodied in exports tends to increase over time the expanding total volume of exports and increasing exports of energy intensive goods tend to enlarge the energy embodied in exports within all three sub periods but these driving forces were offset by a considerable improvement of energy efficiency and changes in primary energy consumption structure from 1992 to 2002 and the effects of structure of intermediate input only in the sub period from 1992 to 1997 from 2002 to 2005 the sharp augmentation of energy embodied in exports was driven by all the five factors our research has practical implications for the chinese economy results of this study suggest that the energy embodied in trade should receive special attentions in energy policies design to limit the energy resource out flow and pollution generation

optimal wind power deployment in europe a portfolio approach geographic diversification of wind farms can smooth out the fluctuations in wind power generation and reduce the associated system balancing and reliability costs the paper uses historical wind production data from five european countries austria denmark france germany and spain and applies the mean variance portfolio theory to identify cross country portfolios that minimise the total variance of wind production for a given level of production theoretical unconstrained portfolios show that countries spain and denmark with the best wind resource or whose size contributes to smoothing out the country output variability dominate optimal portfolios the methodology is then elaborated to derive optimal constrained portfolios taking into account national wind resource potential and transmission constraints and compare them with the projected portfolios for 2020 such constraints limit the theoretical potential efficiency gains from geographical diversification but there is still considerable room to improve performance from actual or projected portfolios these results highlight the need for more cross border interconnection capacity for greater coordination of european renewable support policies and for renewable support mechanisms and electricity market designs providing locational incentives under these conditions a mechanism for renewables credits trading could help aligning wind power portfolios with the theoretically efficient geographic dispersion 2009 elsevier ltd

comparing structural decomposition analysis and index to analyze and understand historical changes in economic environmental employment or other socio economic indicators it is useful to assess the driving forces or determinants that underlie these changes two techniques for decomposing indicator changes at the sector level are structural decomposition analysis sda and index decomposition analysis ida for example sda and ida have been used to analyze changes in indicators such as energy use co2 emissions labor demand and value added the changes in these variables are decomposed into determinants such as technological demand and structural effects sda uses information from input output tables while ida uses aggregate data at the sector level the two methods have developed quite independently which has resulted in each method being characterized by specific unique techniques and approaches this paper has three aims first the similarities and differences between the two approaches are summarized second the possibility of transferring specific techniques and indices is explored finally a numerical example is used to illustrate differences between the two approaches

energy intensity and its determinants in china s regional economies abstract this paper contributes to the existing literature as well as policy debates by examining energy intensity and its determinants in china s regional economies the analysis is based on a comprehensive database of china s regional energy balance constructed for this project through its focus on regional china this study extends the existing literature which mainly covers nationwide studies it is found in this paper that energy intensity declined substantially in china the main contributing factor is the improvement in energy efficiency changes in the economic structure have so far affected energy intensity modestly thus there is considerable scope to reduce energy intensity through the structural transformation of the chinese economy in the future

the social efficiency of instruments of promotion of renewable energies a transaction cost perspective this paper compares the social efficiency of the regulatory instruments used to promote renewable energy sources in electricity generation taking into consideration their role in promoting the preservation of collective goods they are based on a purchase obligation and act either by price feed in tariffs or by quantity bidding for new res e capacities res e quotas from the public economics perspective the two instruments are distinct in terms of cost efficacy and market incentives in a world of imperfect information exchangeable quotas of green certificates are preferred because this instrument allows better control over consumer costs and whilst retaining market incentives transaction cost economics tce contributes to the assessment of these instruments by introducing res e investment safeguard as a major determinant of social efficiency and the instruments conformity to its institutional environment as a determinant of its viability in light of this additional consideration the arrangements between res e producers and obligated buyers inherent in each instrument are in fact quite similar either long term contracting or vertical integration we compare and assess res e price and quantity instruments on several dimensions from both the public economics and tce perspectives control of the cost for consumers safeguards of res e investments adaptability of the instrument in order to preserve its stability in the long run market incentive intensity and conformity with the new market regime of electricity industry it shows neither instruments offer an optimal solution in each of these dimensions the government will thus select an instrument in accordance with the relative importance of its objectives c 2006 elsevier b v all rights reserved

looking backward to look forward water use and economic growth from a long term perspective recent research has examined the relationship between natural resources and economic growth considered vitally important not only for humanity s well being but also for the integrity of the ecosystem the relationship between water use and economic growth has nevertheless traditionally attracted little attention by analysts this article studies water use trends from 1900 to 2000 throughout the world and their relationship to the main determinants of economic growth to do this we first analyse water use trajectories second to proceed with the determinants of water use we reformulate the ehrlich and holdren s impact population affluence technology ipat equation 1971 decomposing water use trends into changes in economic demands and in water use intensity on the basis of a decomposition analysis finally a simple scenario analysis is conducted to project future water use trends under different economic demographic and technological assumptions the empirical evidence shows that economic and

analysis of electricity consumption in china 1990 2016 using index decomposition and decoupling approach abstract electricity consumption accounts for a significant portion of final energy consumption in countries worldwide and has a close relationship with economic growth this paper explores the factors influencing electricity consumption in china during 1990 2016 using index decomposition analysis and analyses the decoupling status between economic growth and electricity consumption in addition to the influencing factors these analyses are conducted at both national and sectoral levels the results reveal that 1 the economic activity effect was the main driving force increasing total electricity consumption in china while the energy intensity effect hindered it 2 both diversity and aggregation existed at the sector level the power generation chemicals and non ferrous sectors were the top three contributors to increased electricity consumption 3 the change of electricity consumption caused by gdp growth in china showed three decoupling states during 1990 2016 expansive negative decoupling expansive coupling and weak decoupling in particular the energy intensity effect stimulated the occurrence of decoupling 4 industrial sectors played a significant role in decoupling in china while service sectoral electricity consumption showed expansive coupling with its sectoral gdp in recent years

portfolio applications in electricity markets review private investor and manager perspective trends abstract the private sector plays a major role in the expansion and operation of power systems in most countries especially those running liberalized electricity markets policymakers have the task of inducing private agents through their regulatory designs to make decisions that point toward social welfare maximization conversely it is a task of private agents to protect themselves against the risks of the sector including regulatory risks international fuel price uncertainty climate change policies natural resource availability electricity demand uncertainty co2 clearance prices etc instead of hiding all of these risks within the total project costs and losing competitiveness private agents can use diversification as a strategy to deal with them this paper presents a review of the main applications voids and challenges of portfolio optimization for two key agents of the private sector investors and managers the problem of the investor is to design a technology portfolio to invest in that maximizes its expected returns and limits risks while the manager has to design a portfolio of financial physical instruments long term contracts futures etc to sell buy electricity and hedge against price risks we have found two fundamental issues in the literature the first and most important is excessive confidence in historical data and statistical analysis for predicting future price behavior for a changing future in detriment of more structural analysis structural analysis can include particularities of modern power systems such as future transmission changes congestion operational constraints ramps new entrants new technologies and new demand grow patterns that cannot be taken into account by simply analyzing price historical values the second is the omission of renewable complementarities which is a proven characteristic of dispersed renewable plants that may have important risk mitigation effects although it has largely been ignored in portfolio analysis due to insufficient data modeling limitations and computational complexity

factors shaping aggregate energy intensity trend for industry energy intensity versus product mix understanding the mechanisms of change of energy consumption in industry has attracted much attention since the 1973 world oil crisis a popular line of research has been to decompose changes in the aggregate energy intensity of industry to give the relative impacts arising from energy intensity change and product mix change using a decomposition technique many empirical studies covering a large number of countries have been reported the main objective of this paper is to put together the empirical results reported in these studies in a coherent framework and identify possible systematic features of particular interest are the basic trends in this line of research the relative importance of energy intensity change and product mix change possible variations over time and between country groups in the energy impacts of these changes and inconsistencies in findings among studies an overview of the decomposition technique including its strengths weaknesses and role in industrial energy consumption studies is also presented

how does the implementation of the policy of electricity substitution influence green economic growth in china abstract to promote the level of electrification reduce environmental pollution and achieve the goal of clean energy usage and green economic growth in china the national development and reform commission and other eight departments jointly issued and implemented the policy of electricity substitution in 2016 electricity substitution aims to replace traditional fossil fuels such as coal and fuel oil with clean electric energy in different fields e g industry transportation and construction and deal with the pollutants at power generation however we still need to find out the exact impact of the policy of electricity substitution on energy saving and emission reduction in this paper we estimate the economically feasible increment of electricity demand according to different classifications in electricity substitution technology furthermore based on the input output model we discuss the relative influence of the policy of lectricity substitution the main conclusions are first the policy of electricity substitution alone is not adequate to reduce the dependence on fossil energy and environmental pollution under china s current power generation structure we should also increase the use of renewable energy second the power sector plays a leading role in stimulating economic output and the increasing electricity consumption due to the policy of electricity substitution can boost the green development of china s economy

carbon dioxide emission drivers for a typical metropolis using input output structural decomposition analysis as the capital of china beijing is regarded as a major metropolis in the world study of the variation in temporal co2 emissions generated by the driving forces in beijing can provide guidance for policy decisions on co2 emissions mitigation in global metropolises based on input output structural decomposition analysis io sda we analysed the driving forces for the increment in co2 emissions in beijing from both production and final demand perspectives during 1997 2010 according to our results the co2 emission growth in beijing is driven mainly by production structure change and population growth partly offset by co2 emission intensity reduction as well as the decline in per capita final demand volume during the study period final demand structure change has a limited effect on the change in the co2 emissions in beijing from the final demand perspective urban trades urban residential consumption government consumption and fixed capital formation are mainly responsible for the booming emissions this study showed how the top down io sda methodology was implemented on a city scale policy implications from this study would be helpful for addressing co2 emissions mitigation in global capital cities and metropolises

factorial decomposition of co2 emissions a generalized divisia index approach abstract this paper introduces a novel approach to estimating the impact of the major factors driving co 2 emissions gdp energy consumption population their carbon intensities and other related indicators that may be chosen arbitrarily the suggested approach is based on the generalization of the divisia index to interconnected factors the approach also extends the kaya identity by explicitly including gross domestic product and energy consumption a computer program in r language aimed at automating the calculations is supplied factorial analysis of the united states and china s co 2 emissions is provided as an example of application

imbalance of carbon emissions embodied in the us japan trade temporal change and driving factors abstract in us japan trade japan ran both economic export surplus and export co2 emission surplus with the us positive net monetary exports for japan were actually a kind of economic losses of the us while positive net export co2 emissions or net co2 emissions embodied in us japan trade were regarded as pollution transfer from u s to japan however due to lack of unified measurement units and standards between the two research fields it is difficult to directly assess whether positive effects of u s via carbon transfer outweigh negative effects caused by economic losses the study transforms absolute values of net monetary exports and net export co2 emissions from 2000 to 2011 in us japan trade into two ratios the ratio of net monetary exports to gdp of u s and the ratio of net embodied co2 emissions to total co2 emissions of the us by comparison the result shows that on average net monetary exports between u s and japan accounted for 0 45 of american gdp while ratio of net export emissions to aggregate consumption based co2 emissions of u s kept about 0 20 during the research period concerned which indicated that negative effects of economic losses in u s outweighed positive effects via carbon transfer in us japan trade furthermore a structural analysis of co2 emissions embodied in us japan trade during the 11 years is given the most significant driver was emission coefficients defined as co2 emissions per unit of energy consumption the driving force of emission coefficients led to dramatic reduction in co2 flows from japan to the us and thus caused decrease of net export emissions which also explained the major reason for the low ratio of export emissions to total co2 emissions of the us finally according to sectoral distributions of co2 flows between japan and the us emission sources of two countries presented different characteristics

wind power reliability valuation in a hydro dominated power market the colombian case abstract the design of market mechanisms that remunerates the reliability provided by a generator in a power market is a task that aims to ensure the normal operation of the system for the case of a hydro dominated system when wind power is introduced and operated under the merit order effect it is possible to assess the effect of the displacement of hydro generation due to wind generation over the system s reliability in terms of firm energy taking this into account a model that valuates the firm energy provided by wind power in a hydro dominated system is proposed this model considers the effect of wind power over the system s reservoirs and the market price of electricity and valuates the firm energy as the net savings of the system related to the increase in the firm energy of the system when wind power is introduced the results show that wind power under merit order effect increases the firm energy of the system and decreases the market price of electricity being the net savings in comparison to the corresponding hydro only system the reliability income that should be perceived by the wind power generator

the multi factor energy input output model abstract energy input output analysis eio analysis is a noteworthy tool for the analysis of the role of energy in the economy however it has relied on models that provide a limited description of energy flows in the economic system and do not allow an adequate analysis of energy efficiency this paper introduces a novel energy input output model the multi factor energy input output model mf eio model which is obtained from a partitioning of a hybrid unit input output system of the economy this model improves on current models by describing the energy flows according to the processes of energy conversion and the levels of energy use in the economy it characterizes the vector of total energy output as a function of seven factors two energy efficiency indicators two characteristics of end use energy consumption and three economic features of the rest of the economy moreover it is consistent with the standard model for eio analysis i e the hybrid unit model this paper also introduces an approximate version of the mf eio model which is equivalent to the former under equal energy prices for industries and final consumers but requires less data processing the latter is composed by two linked models a model of the energy sector in physical units and a model of the rest of the economy in monetary units in conclusion the proposed modelling framework improves eio analysis and extends eio applications to the accounting for energy efficiency of the economy

do competitively acquired funds induce universities to increase productivity abstract this paper analyzes the impact of private and public third party funds on the productivity of swiss university departments and public research institutions estimating a production function assuming that labor inputs produce master students and scientific publications reveals a positive effect of public third party funding on productivity but not for private funds however once we include technology transfer as an additional output the coefficient for public third party funding turns insignificant while private funding becomes significant indicating that the disciplining effect of public donors focuses on publications while private donors foster technology transfer we employ three alternative approaches to tackle endogeneity and find qualitatively robust results

why did the energy intensity fall in china s industrial sector in the 1990s the relative importance of structural change and intensity change there have been a variety of studies investigating the relative importance of structural change and real intensity change to the change in china s energy consumption in the 1980s however no detailed analysis to date has been done to examine whether or not the increased energy efficiency trend in the 1980s still prevailed in the 1990s this article has filled this gap by investigating the change in energy consumption in china s industrial sector in the 1990s based on the data sets of value added and end use energy consumption for the 29 industrial subsectors and using the newly proposed decomposition method of giving no residual our results clearly show that the overwhelming contributor to the decline in industrial energy use in the 1990s was the decline in real energy intensity indicating that the trend of real energy intensity declines in the 1980s at the 2 digit level was still maintained in the 1990s this conclusion still holds even if we lower the growth rate dramatically in line with the belief that the growth rate of china s gdp may be overestimated

material flows and economic models an analytical comparison of sfa lca and partial equilibrium models abstract the growing concern for environmental problems in the current economy has spurred the study of the way materials and substances flow through the economy resulting in many different types of analysis since all of these have their merits and shortcomings much of the present theoretical research seems to be focusing on combining the best aspects of each model type into an integrated model the aim of this paper is to make a first step in bridging the gap between the various types of analysis of material flows in the economy by discussing the main differences and similarities of three often employed model types substance flow analysis life cycle assessment and partial economic equilibrium analysis instead of submitting each model to a lengthy theoretical discussion we apply them to a single hypothetical example of a pollution problem by doing so we are able to evaluate the differences and similarities of the methods and results of the model in a practical way it appears that the results of the three models are complementary rather than contradictory each of them puts an emphasis on different aspects of the real world a sequential application of a number of limited models may therefore be an approach that provides more useful information than the tedious construction and application of an encompassing model that integrates these models

electricity consumption and economic growth in china cointegration and co feature analysis abstract this paper applies the cointegration theory to examine the causal relationship between electricity consumption and real gdp gross demostic product for china during 1978 2004 our estimation results indicate that real gdp and electricity consumption for china are cointegrated and there is only unidirectional granger causality running from electricity consumption to real gdp but not the vice versa then hodrick prescott hp filter is applied to decompose the trend and fluctuation component of the gdp and electricity consumption series the estimation results indicate that there is cointegration between not only the trend components but also the cyclical components of the two series which implies that the granger causality is probably related with the business cycle the estimation results are of policy implication to the development of electric sector in china

assessing the value of wind generation in future carbon constrained electricity industries this paper employs a novel monte carlo based generation portfolio assessment tool to explore the implications of increasing wind penetration and carbon prices within future electricity generation portfolios under considerable uncertainty this tool combines optimal generation mix techniques with monte carlo simulation and portfolio analysis methods to determine expected overall generation costs associated cost uncertainty and expected co2 emissions for different possible generation portfolios a case study of an electricity industry with coal combined cycle gas turbines ccgt open cycle gas turbines ocgt and wind generation options that faces uncertain future fossil fuel prices carbon pricing electricity demand and plant construction costs is presented to illustrate some of the key issues associated with growing wind penetrations the case study uses half hourly demand and wind generation data from south eastern australia and regional estimates of new build plant costs and characteristics results suggest that although wind generation generally increases overall industry costs it reduces associated cost uncertainties and co2 emissions however there are some cases in which wind generation can reduce the overall costs of generation portfolios the extent to which wind penetration affects industry expected costs and uncertainties depends on the level of carbon price and the conventional technology mix in the portfolios

fuel mix diversification incentives in liberalized electricity markets a mean variance portfolio theory approach monte carlo simulations of gas coal and nuclear plant investment returns are used as inputs of a mean variance portfolio optimization to identify optimal base load generation portfolios for large electricity generators in liberalized electricity markets we study the impact of fuel electricity and co2 price risks and their degree of correlation on optimal plant portfolios high degrees of correlation between gas and electricity prices as observed in most european markets reduce gas plant risks and make portfolios dominated by gas plant more attractive long term power purchase contracts and or a lower cost of capital can rebalance optimal portfolios towards more diversified portfolios with larger shares of nuclear and coal plants

decomposition of co2 emissions over 1980 2003 in turkey abstract there is a multi dimensional need for studying the energy situation in turkey and to obtain insight into the development of co2 emissions on the one hand recent projections of the oecd show that turkey has a yearly gdp growth potential of over 7 on the other hand recent projections of undp and world bank indicate that the level of co2 emission is going to rise six fold by 2025 with respect to the level of emissions in 1990 it is a great challenge to both meet the growth target and keep the co2 under control thereupon this paper tries to unfold factors that explain co2 emissions by undertaking a complete decomposition analysis for turkey over the period 1980 2003 the analysis shows as is common to relatively fast growing economies that the biggest contributor to the rise in co2 emissions is the expansion of the economy scale effect the carbon intensity and the change in composition of the economy which nearly move in tandem also contribute to the rise in co2 emissions albeit at a slower rate the energy intensity of the economy which is decreasing is responsible for a modest reduction in co2 emissions hence in congruence with the scale effect a decoupling of carbon emissions and economic growth is not found in turkey over the period 1980 2003

china s energy consumption change from 1987 to 2007 a multi regional structural decomposition analysis abstract increasing use of energy has helped to stimulate china s economy despite central planning china has great differences in economic development energy endowment and energy consumption across its regions this paper uses the structural decomposition approach to uncover the regional disparities in energy consumption from 1987 to 2007 we also examine six possible key factors for the change in energy consumption by region we find that final demand change outpaced efficiency improvements to drive up energy use in all regions between 1987 and 2007 more surprisingly from 2002 to 2007 it appears that changes in production structure enhanced energy consumption in most regions china produced more energy intensive goods for capital investment and export we contend that improving the energy efficiency of key energy intensive sectors would lead a significant decline in energy intensity energy directly or indirectly is flowing from northwest central and north china to coastal regions regional specific policies should be designed to promote production structure change and curb energy demand

changes in carbon intensity in china empirical findings from 1980 2003 china experienced sustainable rapid economic growth over the period 1980 2003 but at the same time energy related carbon intensity showed a downward trend it begs the question therefore what factors were driving this decline in carbon intensity and will this decline be maintained in future moreover what measures can be adopted to ensure a continual decline in carbon intensity these questions led to increased research in the factors governing co2 emission in china this paper quantifies the driving force behind china s primary energy related carbon intensity and measures the material production sectors final energy related carbon intensity our results show that the overwhelming contributor to the decline of energy related carbon intensity was the reduction in real energy intensity however policies that focus only on the decline in energy intensity are insufficient to further decrease carbon intensity the change of primary energy mix can improve the decline of carbon intensity this should focus on the material production sectors development strategies and final energy use greater emphasis should be given to secondary industry which needs national and regional governments policy support

scale technique and composition effects in trade related carbon emissions in china this study applies structural decomposition analysis to evaluate the scale composition and technique effects of trade related carbon emissions in china mainland from 1987 to 2007 the initial findings indicate that the increasing magnitude of china s trade both in terms of the carbon emissions embodied in exports and the carbon emissions avoided via imports had large scale effects during the whole period the technique effect caused by changes in input mix sector energy intensity fuel mix and carbon coefficients effectively offset part of the scale effect during the entire period but failed to do so during some sub periods changes in trade composition caused a relative small increase in the carbon emissions created by exports but a relative small decrease in the carbon emissions avoided via imports during the whole period

dynamic change in energy and co2 performance of china s commercial sector a regional comparative study abstract energy and co2 efficiency play important roles in promoting energy conservation and co2 emission reduction in china s commercial sector this paper applies the non radial directional distance function to evaluate energy and co2 efficiency in china s commercial sector and also constructs a non radial malmquist energy and co2 performance index to measure the dynamic performance of energy and co2 efficiency in the sector the results indicate that energy and co2 efficiency in china s commercial sector is generally low and there are significant regional differences and enormous energy savings and co2 emission reduction potentials eastern china has the highest energy and co2 efficiency of all the regions from the perspective of dynamic performance energy and co2 efficiency performance in china s commercial sector improved by 3 8 annually over the period 1995 2015 technological progress is the major driving factor improving energy and co2 efficiency in the sector the technology gap changes tgc index which is less than 1 implies that the technological gap between the global frontier and the intertemporal frontier has increased and does not help to improve energy and co2 efficiency performance considering regional differences policy makers should set both short and long term goals to achieve environmental goals in china s commercial sector

industry energy use and structural change a case study of the people s republic of china abstract this paper examines the effects of structural change and improvements in energy intensities of individual industries in aggregate industry energy intensity changes in china during 1980 88 the divisia index is used to decompose the energy intensity effect and structural effect a major finding of this analysis is that the main contribution to changed aggregate energy intensity was from the changes in energy intensities of individual industries during the period structural effects were found to contribute little to the aggregate energy intensity changes

gray water and environmental externalities international patterns of water pollution through a structural decomposition analysis abstract despite regulatory measures restricting industrial and agricultural operations from pouring pollutants into lakes streams and rivers around 1 1 trillion m3 of wastewater were still disposed in waterways around the world in 2009 and this amount continues to grow several studies have analyzed the determinants of gray water increase at local level but so far none has explored them in an international context to highlight the role of global value added chains and the dichotomy between developed and developing nations in order to provide insights on the dynamics of water pollution worldwide this paper analyzes the main drivers of gray water discharge during the 1995 2009 period and the effort on reducing gray water compared to other environmental externalities based on the world input output database a structural decomposition analysis sda of gray water generation shows that domestic demand for food is the main driver of gray water changes in all countries while relocation of industrial activities to developing nations has disproportionally transferred this burden from developed countries manufacturing industries we highlight that while national policies should target water pollution from the agri food sector within each country water discharges from manufacturing sectors in global value chains need to be regulated from an international perspective besides the empirical evidence on water pollution drivers currently lacking in the environmental literature this paper also introduces a novel hybrid multiplicative additive sda that overcomes the issue of distributing large interaction terms in standard additive models and allows simulating mitigation scenarios it portrays the heterogeneity among sectors of how environmental abatement policies affect water and air pollution

drivers of provincial so2 emissions in china based on multi regional input output analysis abstract studying the driving factors of pollutant emissions is of great significance for china in the formulation of pollution control strategies existing studies mainly focus on the causes of national aggregate emission changes however considering the large differences among provinces in china and their close economic linkages it is necessary to develop a provincial level analysis to shape provincial policies for emission reduction using the multi regional input output mrio tables of 30 provinces in china and adopting structural decomposition analysis we analyze how changes in the end of pipe treatment cleaner production economic production structure domestic final use domestic exports and international exports drive national and provincial so2 emissions decomposition results show that during 2002 2010 the absolute value of each effect based on the mrio model is higher than that based on the national aggregate input output model which indicates that the existing studies adopting the national average data conceal the variation in the driving factors and underestimate their contributions to so2 emission changes the decomposition results based on mrio model further show that the end of pipe treatment and cleaner production are the major emission reduction factors for all provinces and the effect of the former has noticeably increased during 2007 2010 for the eastern provinces interestingly the economic production structure becomes a major emission reduction factor during the period of 2007 2010 changes in domestic final demand domestic exports and international exports exhibit significantly different contributions among provinces the increased final demand in eastern provinces largely drive so2 emissions for all provinces based on the above findings policy implications that address the so2 emission reduction issues are proposed

manufacturing energy use in eight oecd countries decomposing the impacts of changes in output industry structure and energy intensity this paper examines trends in manufacturing energy use in eight oecd countries decomposing the changes that occured between 1973 and 1987 into the effects of changes in aggregate manufacturing activity industry structure and energy intensities measured at the industry group level while manufacturing production grew in every country except the uk the rate of growth was variable from nation to nation structural change led to modest reductions in energy use in most countries although in norway structural change led to substantial growth in energy use the reduction in energy intensities was strikingly uniform across all nations ranging from 20 norway to 36 japan over the period of the analysis while other studies have used divisia decomposition techniques we use an alternative method based on laspeyres indices a comparison of the two techniques shows that they yield closely similar empirical results although the laspeyres approach is more easily interpreted while the interactions between changes in structure and intensity are arbitrarily assigned to the two factors by the divisia approach the lapeyres method yields interaction terms that explicitly account for such effects

robust portfolio optimization for electricity planning an application based on the brazilian electricity mix one of the major challenges of today s policy makers and industry strategists is to achieve an electricity mix that presents a high level of energy security within a range of affordable costs and environmental constraints bearing in mind the planning of a more reliable electricity mix the main contribution of this paper is to consider parameter uncertainties on the electricity portfolio optimization problem we assume that the expected and the covariance matrix of the costs for the different energy technologies such as gas coal nuclear oil biomass wind large and small hydropower are not exactly known we consider that these parameters belong to some uncertainty sets box ellipsoidal lower and upper bounds and convex polytopic three problems are analyzed i finding a energy portfolio of minimum worst case volatility with guaranteed fixed maximum expected energy cost ii finding an energy portfolio of minimum worst case expected cost with guaranteed fixed maximum volatility of the energy cost iii finding a combination of the expected and variance of the cost weighted by a risk aversion parameter these problems are written as quadratic second order cone programming socp and semidefinite programming sdp so that robust optimization tools can be applied these results are illustrated by analyzing the efficient brazilian electricity energy mix considered in losekann et al 2013 assuming possible uncertainties in the vector of expected costs and covariance matrix the results suggest that the robust approach being by nature more conservative can be useful in providing a reasonable electricity energy mix conciliating co2 emission risk and costs under uncertainties on the parameters of the model

dynamics of energy related co2 emissions in china during 1980 to 2002 the relative importance of energy supply side and demand side effects abstract based on a newly developed model that integrates energy production transformation and consumption processes this paper compares the relative importance of some traditionally recognized factors operating on the energy demand side with a body of newly defined factors on the supply side in terms of their contribution to trends in china s co2 emissions related to the total primary energy supply c tpes before 1996 changes in china s c tpes were mainly driven by changes on the energy demand side factors operating on the energy supply side played trivial roles during the period 1996 2000 however increasing demand side effects declined dramatically and at the same time decreasing effects from supply side expanded significantly such changes resulted directly in a decline in the c tpes the decreasing effects from international trade as well as statistical imbalances between supply and demand reinforced the declining trend the shrinkage of demand side effects mainly arose from the slowdown of economic growth and speed of decrease in energy intensity the expansion of supply side effects was principally attributed to the speed of decrease in gross unit consumption in transformation sectors especially in electricity sector therefore the acceleration of efficiency improvements in end use and transformation sectors accounted for the decline in the c tpes over the period 1996 2000

co2 emissions embodied in china s exports from 2002 to 2008 a structural decomposition analysis abstract this study examines the annual co2 emissions embodied in china s exports from 2002 to 2008 using environmental input output analysis four driving forces including emission intensity economic production structure export composition and total export volume are compared for their contributions to the increase of embodied co2 emissions using a structural decomposition analysis sda technique although offset by the decrease in emission intensity the increase of embodied co2 emissions was driven by changes of the other three factors in particular the change of the export composition was the largest driver primarily due to the increasing fraction of metal products in china s total export relevant policy implications and future research directions are discussed at the end of the paper

metabolic inequality and its impact on efficient contraction and convergence of international material resource use international inequality in material use decreased between 1970 and 2000 inequality stabilized 2000 to 2010 when global growth in material use accelerated material intensity has gained importance in shaping material use inequality inequality in material intensity has increased and shapes global material use

account for sector heterogeneity in china s energy consumption sector price indices vs gdp deflator abstract a common practice in decomposition analyses is to deflate output indicators to purge the impact of inflation by using a general deflator this practice fails to account for sector heterogeneity and can be hazardous although the general identified patterns are largely correct the calculated magnitudes can be misleading or even wrongly signed instead it is strongly recommended that sector heterogeneity is accounted for by using individual sector price indices for all relevant sectors instead of one general gdp deflator this paper analyzes this advanced decomposition using chinese data and compares to the usual method of using only one deflator it is found that while most differences are only of quantitative quality some show even a qualitative difference furthermore the rising energy intensity in the early 2000s which has been discussed by previous studies vanishes completely

an economic analysis of midwestern us criteria pollutant emissions trends from 1970 to 2000 abstract from 1970 to 2000 u s economic output doubled but emissions of four criteria pollutants from economic activity co no x voc and so 2 decreased by 20 understanding what factors have contributed to this pollution reduction in the u s as a whole as well as in various regions within the country has important policy implications a recently developed regional environmental econometric input output model for the midwestern states of the u s has been used to examine the causes of pollution reduction in this regional economy over a thirty year period simulations conducted with this model suggest that for the rate of growth experienced over the period technological improvement has dominated economic structural change in the reduction of pollutant emissions on average technological improvement has accounted for approximately 80 of emissions reduction while economic structural change explains the remaining 20 of the decrease our analysis suggests that while much remains to be done in reducing emissions in both developed and developing countries policies that are informed by an understanding of the role of structural change and which promote the adoption of more recently developed technologies may contribute substantially to sustainable development

china s changing energy intensity trend a decomposition analysis china experienced a dramatic decline in energy intensity from the onset of economic reform in the late 1970s until 2000 but since then the rate of decline slowed and energy intensity actually increased in 2003 most previous studies found that most of the decline was due to technological change but disagreed on the role of structural change to the best of our knowledge no decomposition study has investigated the role of inter fuel substitution in the decline in energy intensity or the causes of the rise in energy intensity since 2000 in this paper we use logarithmic mean divisia index lmdi techniques to decompose changes in energy intensity in the period 1980 2003 we find that 1 technological change is confirmed as the dominant contributor to the decline in energy intensity 2 structural change at the industry and sector sub industry level actually increased energy intensity over the period of 1980 2003 although the structural change at the industry level was very different in the 1980s and in the post 1990 period 3 structural change involving shifts of production between sub sectors however decreased overall energy intensity 4 the increase in energy intensity since 2000 is explained by negative technological progress 5 inter fuel substitution is found to contribute little to the changes in energy intensity

the lmdi approach to decomposition analysis a practical guide in a recent study ang energy policy 32 2004 compared various index decomposition analysis methods and concluded that the logarithmic mean divisia index method is the preferred method since the literature on the method tends to be either too technical or specific for most potential users this paper provides a practical guide that includes the general formulation process summary tables for easy reference and examples

decomposition of electricity demand in china s industrial sector in the past five years china s demand for electricity has accelerated far beyond what central planners had forecasted leading to supply constraints and costly brownouts throughout the country this paper presents analysis of the effect of changes in the industrial sector on electricity demand an important economic sector contributing to these above patterns as it consumes nearly 70 of the electricity generated in china using decomposition analysis it is found that both increased industrial activity and fuel shifts helped increase industrial sector electricity demand between 1998 and 2002 the period of focus in this study but significant increases in energy efficiency countered this

structural change and technology choice energy use in mexican manufacturing industry 1970 1981 abstract this paper analyses industrial energy use in a country that has experienced falling instead of rising energy prices mexico subsidizes domestic energy consumption with the avowed purpose of stimulating industrialization methods are developed to distinguish the effects of technology choice from the effects of changing industrial structure and are then used to analyse the increased energy intensity of manufacturing industry 1970 1981 the increase is found to depend entirely on the adoption of more energy using technology whereas the changes in output structure have had little or no effect there has been a slight bias in favour of the less energy intensive sectors

what induced china s energy intensity to fluctuate 1997 2006 abstract china is the second largest energy consumer in the world during 1997 2002 china s energy intensity declined by 33 however it rose by 10 7 over 2003 2005 and declined by 1 2 in 2006 what induced china s energy intensity to fluctuate so drastically industry accounts for approximately 70 of the total energy consumption in china in this paper we decompose china s industrial energy intensity changes between 1997 and 2002 into sectoral structural effects and efficiency effects measured by sectoral energy intensities at two digit level and including the shifts of product mix in the sub sector or firm level using tornqvist and sato vartia index methods the results show that in this period efficiency effects possibly contributed to a majority of the decline while the contribution from structural effects was less during 2003 2005 the excessive expansion of high energy consuming sub sectors and the high investment ratio were foremost sources of the increasing energy intensity attributed to the government efforts the energy intensity has started to decline slightly since july 2006 in future to save more energy in addition to technical progress china should attach more importance to optimizing its sectoral structure and lowering its investment ratio

measuring structural change and energy use decomposition of the us economy from 1997 to 2002 abstract the steadily increasing focus on energy production and consumption has led to growing research attention to patterns of energy use within economies of particular interest has been comparing the driving forces of increasing efficiency and economic structural change input output analysis ioa and decomposition analysis have become critical tools for performing such analyses this study analyzes aggregate energy use in the united states in 1997 and 2002 to discover the causes of changing energy usage and flows results show that rising population and household consumption acted to drive up energy demand but this driving force was offset by considerable structural change within the economy particularly related to a quickly increasing trade deficit in manufacturing goods thus while total energy intensity the ratio of energy use to economic output declined by approximately 12 between 1997 and 2002 changes in the structure of the economy explain this drop more than increased energy efficiency the level of aggregation at which decomposition analyses are run was identified as a crucially sensitive parameter for the determination of structural change and future studies should specifically address the amount of detail necessary to adequately measure changes in economic structure

the driving forces of china s energy use from 1992 to 2010 an empirical study of input output and structural decomposition analysis abstract the energy consumption in china has accelerated since the early 2000s and china became the largest energy consumer in the world by 2010 to examine the driving forces of china s energy use this paper conducts a structural decomposition analysis based on hybrid input output tables in addition we describe the framework of china s energy system by using two energy flow charts the results show that china s current energy use is investment led demand between 1992 and 2007 the three main final demand categories gross fixed capital formation household consumption and exports contributed approximately one third each to the changes of total energy use in china between 2007 and 2010 however three quarters of energy consumption changes came from investment activity only technological improvement saved approximately five percent of the total energy use annually during the periods of 1992 1997 1997 2002 and 2007 2010 in the period of 2002 2007 however its contribution dropped to only three percent p a due to the rise of the indirect energy requirement coefficient in the construction sector these results suggest that adjusting the final demand structure and improving energy efficiency further will meet china s energy challenges in the future

what goes up recent trends in china s energy consumption since 1996 china s energy output has dropped by 17 while primary energy use has fallen by 4 driven almost entirely by shrinking output from coal mines and declining direct use since china is the world s second largest emitter of greenhouse gases it is important to understand the sources of this apparent transformation and whether it portends a permanent change in patterns of energy use this remarkable reversal of the long term expansion of energy use has occurred even as the economy has continued to grow albeit more slowly than in the early 1990s generation of electric power has risen implying a steep fall in end uses particularly in industry available information points to a variety of forces contributing to this phenomenon including rapid improvements in coal quality structural changes in industry shutdowns of factories in both the state owned and non state segments of the economy improvements in end use efficiency and greater use of gas and electricity in households a combination of slowing economic growth industrial restructuring broader economic system reforms and environmental and energy efficiency policies has apparently led to at least a temporary decline in and perhaps a long term reduction in the growth of energy use and therefore greenhouse gas emissions

accounting for nitrogen in denmark a structural decomposition analysis abstract this paper examines the environmental economic cycle for nitrogen in denmark based on nitrogen input and output from different economic sectors an input output model is employed together with a nitrogen mass balance to apportion total nitrogen loading by final demand and estimate export and import of nitrogen from foreign trade the changes in agricultural and industrial nitrogen loading from the mid 1960s to the late 1980s are broken down into changes related to different technological and economic factors the analysis reveals that technological change intensified agricultural production and economic growth especially rising exports are the key factors structural shifts changes in commodity mix in the household and production sectors generally being of less importance

residential energy consumption in urban china a decomposition analysis abstract residential energy consumption rec is the second largest energy use category 10 in china and urban residents account for 63 of the rec understanding the underlying drivers of variations of urban rec thus helps to identify challenges and opportunities and provide advices for future policy measures this paper applies the lmdi method to a decomposition of china s urban rec during the period of 1998 2007 at disaggregated product activity level using data collected from a wide range of sources our results have shown an extensive structure change towards a more energy intensive household consumption structure as well as an intensive structure change towards high quality and cleaner energy such as electricity oil and natural gas which reflects a changing lifestyle and consumption mode in pursuit of a higher level of comfort convenience and environmental protection we have also found that china s price reforms in the energy sector have contributed to a reduction of rec while scale factors including increased urban population and income levels have played a key role in the rapid growth of rec we suggest that further deregulation in energy prices and regulatory as well as voluntary energy efficiency and conservation policies in the residential sector should be promoted

changes in industrial electricity consumption in china from 1998 to 2007 abstract electricity consumption in the industrial sector experienced a dramatic increase between 1998 and 2007 accounting for approximately 75 of china s total electricity consumption this study analyzes the potential factors influencing the growth of electricity consumption in china s industrial sector over the past decade using a logarithmic mean divisia index i decomposition method results show that activity effect and shift effect caused by the change in the electricity s share of industrial energy use are the major factors responsible for the rise in electricity consumption between 1998 and 2007 it is found that structural change also contributed to the increase in electricity consumption it had only a small effect in contrast the technological effect is responsible for a decrease in electricity consumption during this period the influences of technological effects and shift effects followed approximately an inverse u shaped and u shaped curve respectively furthermore the results show that the main contributors to incremental electricity consumption among industrial subsectors were manufacturing of raw chemical material and products manufacturing of non metal mineral products smelting and pressing of ferrous and non ferrous metals and production and supply of electric power and heat power these sectors should take priority for industrial restructuring in order to implement policies for energy and electricity savings

the effect of increasing exports on industrial energy intensity in china abstract given china s heavy reliance on fuel energy and the dominance of its industrial sector in the economy improving energy efficiency remains one of the practical means for the country to decrease energy intensity and to fulfill its commitment made at the copenhagen climate change conference to achieve a 40 45 percent reduction in co 2 emission intensity by 2020 this study investigates the impact of exports on industrial energy intensity to explore the possibility of reducing energy intensity through greater exports a panel varying coefficient regression model with a dataset of china s 20 industrial sub sectors over 1999 2007 suggests that in general greater exports aggravate energy intensity of the industrial sector and that great divergences exist in the impact of exports on energy intensity across sub sectors a panel threshold model further estimates the thresholds for the major determinants of energy intensity exports input in technological innovations and foreign direct investment fdi intensity given the great differences in specific sub sector characteristics and the changing roles played by different factors across sub sectors there is no general export policy that would work for all sub sectors in reducing sub sector energy intensity instead policies and measures aiming to encourage more efficient use of energy should take into full consideration the characteristics and situations of individual sub sectors

carbon dioxide emissions intensity of portuguese industry and energy sectors a convergence analysis and econometric approach abstract given the relevance of energy and pollution issues for industrialised countries and the importance of industry and energy sectors to the achievement of their economic and environmental goals it is important to know if there is a common pattern of emissions intensity fuel intensity and energy intensity between industries to know if it justifies a more specific application of energy policies between sectors which sectors have the greatest potential for reducing energy use and which are the long term effects of those specific variables on the mitigation of emissions we found that although there is literature on decomposition of effects that affect emissions the study of the convergence and of the relationships between these variables does not include ratios or effects that result from the decomposition analysis thus the above questions are not answered much less for the portuguese reality the purpose of this paper is to study i the existence of convergence of some relevant ratios as carbon dioxide co 2 emissions intensity co 2 emissions by fossil fuel consumption fossil fuel intensity energy intensity and economic structure between industry and energy sectors in portugal and ii the influence that the consumption of fossil fuels the consumption of aggregate energy and gdp have on co 2 emissions and the influence that the ratios in which co 2 emissions intensity decomposes can affect that variable using an econometric approach namely panel corrected standard errors estimator we concluded that there is sigma convergence for all ratios with exception of fossil fuel intensity gamma convergence verifies for all ratios with exception of co 2 emissions by fossil fuel from the econometric approach we concluded that the considered variables have a significant importance in explaining co 2 emissions and co 2 emissions intensity

does risk aversion affect transmission and generation planning a western north america case study abstract we investigate the effects of risk aversion on optimal transmission and generation expansion planning in a competitive and complete market to do so we formulate a stochastic model that minimizes a weighted average of expected transmission and generation costs and their conditional value at risk cvar we show that the solution of this optimization problem is equivalent to the solution of a perfectly competitive risk averse stackelberg equilibrium in which a risk averse transmission planner maximizes welfare after which risk averse generators maximize profits this model is then applied to a 240 bus representation of the western electricity coordinating council in which we examine the impact of risk aversion on levels and spatial patterns of generation and transmission investment although the impact of risk aversion remains small at an aggregate level state level impacts on generation and transmission investment can be significant which emphasizes the importance of explicit consideration of risk aversion in planning models

revisiting drivers of energy intensity in china during 1997 2007 a structural decomposition analysis the decline of china s energy intensity slowed since 2000 during 2002 2005 it actually increased reversing the long term trend therefore it is important to identify drivers of the fluctuation of energy intensity we use input output structural decomposition analysis to investigate the contributions of changes in energy mix sectoral energy efficiency production structure final demand structure and final demand category composition to china s energy intensity fluctuation during 1997 2007 we include household energy consumption in the study by closing the input output model with respect to households results show that sectoral energy efficiency improvements contribute the most to the energy intensity decline during 1997 2007 the increase in china s energy intensity during 2002 2007 is instead explained by changes in final demand composition and production structure changes in final demand composition are mainly due to increasing share of exports while changes in production structure mainly arise from the shift of chinese economy to more energy intensive industries changes in energy mix and final demand structure contribute little to china s energy intensity fluctuation from the consumption perspective growing exports of energy intensive products and increasing infrastructure demands explain the majority of energy intensity increase during 2002 2007

carbon dioxide emissions in the u s economy a structural decomposition analysis this paper provides an empirical analysis of the impact of various influences on carbon dioxide emissions it incorporates methodological refinements of input output structural decomposition analysis which is the examination of economic change by means of a set of comparative static variations in key parameters of i o tables the analysis is performed using a two tiered klem model which allows for estimation of substitution and technological change effects within and between input aggregates the model is used to decompose the sources of change in co2 emissions in the u s over the 1972 82 timeframe using hybrid energy value tables for the initial and terminal years results show the significant effect of substitution within the energy sector and between energy and other inputs as the leading causes of the decline in carbon dioxide emissions

wind electricity in denmark a survey of policies their effectiveness and factors motivating their introduction this paper surveys the development of the policies supporting the introduction of wind electricity in denmark in the last 15 years with special attention to the new policy introduced after a 2 year long debate the aim of this paper is to explore the roles of financial support policy certainty and planning constraints in the diffusion of wind electricity in denmark and the reasons prompting the change of the system in the current decade it is discovered that political uncertainty has badly affected the effectiveness of the feed in law in the years immediately after its introduction with regard to the new system it is concluded that the change has been prompted by generous conditions under the feed in law and by the desire to facilitate the modernisation of old turbines it is also concluded that incentive based systems can be more effective than tradable quotas in promoting the modernisation of renewable plants this finding is relevant to the development of energy policy in countries such as germany and spain where the average age of wind turbines is much younger than those existing in denmark

energy planning and modern portfolio theory a review abstract modern portfolio theory mpt stands as a widely accepted methodology to meet the challenges associated with the definition of energy planning for a particular territory or region energy planning is thus framed as an investment selection problem mpt is characterized by having a wider capacity and conceptual richness than the other previously used methodologies such as the individual least cost alternative the portfolio approach is based on solving for an objective function that seeks to minimize either the cost or the risk of the portfolio subject to different constraints considering that real electricity generation assets can be defined in terms of cost or return and economic risk for each alternative technology the relevant portfolios are the result of solving the optimization model to determine the efficient cost risk frontier the work presented here consists of an exhaustive review of the literature in relation to the application of mpt methodology to the field of energy planning and electricity production a new classification is proposed from a financial perspective of the selection of investments from the preceding studies it delves deeper into the explanation of the limits to the methodology and into the concept of risk which is key from both a financial and an energy perspective the main methodological contributions found in the literature are examined that are aimed at improving the capacity of the model and adjusting it to the reality of the electricity market finally conclusions are provided from the works analyzed in terms of renewable technologies and the policy implications derived from them in most studies a preference has been shown for the inclusion of renewable technologies in the efficient portfolios however in order to implement the decision to increase the share of renewable technologies greater flexibility in the interconnection capacity between states and in storage capacity is needed