intertemporal cost dependence in the presence of managerial impatience abstract a multi period agency problem arising in the presence of intertemporal cost dependence is investigated the principal delegates production decisions to a manager who is impatient the manager has private information on the nature of cost dependence that takes the form of an experience effect since the impatient manager would not invest enough to gain experience the principal designs a second best scheme to motivate the manager to increase intertemporal profit for the firm the second best scheme is obtained as a direct revelation mechanism that specifies outputs prices as well as the manager s compensation a significant result is that unlike the first best case impatience is not necessarily a disadvantage with asymmetric information impatience can be exploited to reduce the manager s information rent resulting in preferred outcomes for the principal

gender bias and the availability of business loans abstract social structure values and gender socialization have undoubtedly disadvantaged women in the process of preparing for a career in business and there is a widely held view that women are subject to discrimination by financial institutions however the evidence to verify this belief has largely been from studies where women have claimed that they were subject to discrimination in the loan situation without either supporting evidence or control data from a sample of male loan applicants two experiments were carried out using a goldberg type procedure to test the belief that women are unfairly discriminated against when seeking a loan to establish a business venture carefully constructed scenarios of an application for loan finance to purchase a commercial enterprise were mailed to loan officers of major trading bank branches the scenarios were identical in all respects except for the sex and education level of applicants loan officers were asked whether or not they would approve loan finance for the proposed business purchase and to indicate factors that contributed to their decisions significant differences in response to female and male applicants were observed in both experiments in experiment i university education both sexes were equally likely to obtain a loan but education was considered a more important factor for the female applicant than for the male in experiment ii high school education the female applicant was less likely to obtain a loan than the male applicant the results support the widely held perception that women can experience gender discrimination when seeking start up capital such discriminatory behavior by loan officers may not be and probably is not intentional rather the pervasiveness of the social construction of differential gender roles in western culture is such that it is more likely that discrimination is unconscious and consequently more difficult to change

optimal investment in learning curve technologies we study optimal investment in technologies characterized by the learning curve there are two investment patterns depending on the shape of the learning curve if the learning process is slow firms invest relatively late and on a larger scale if the curve is steep firms invest earlier and on a smaller scale we further demonstrate that learning investment differs greatly from investment in technologies without learning effects learning investments generate substantial initial losses and are very sensitive to downside risk we show that the most susceptible to losses and risk are technologies with intermediate speed of learning

women business owners and terms of credit some empirical findings of the canadian experience abstract most previous studies of this topic have followed a methodology of selecting a sample of women business owners and then questioning them on their experience with their own business es although financing frequently is noted as a major problem previous studies suffer from the absence of a control group a corresponding group of male business owners with whom to compare experiences furthermore previous studies have tended to ask the respondent if she believes that she was treated any differently because she was a woman a leading question which could potentially bias the conclusions previous work reveals a pervasive perception that there is discrimination by bankers against women business owners a conclusion based on a widespread but subjective perception by some women owners however there also appears to be a lack of real statistical evidence moreover it is not clear that personal feelings of apparent reluctance displayed by some bankers carry over to professional judgements and to systematically different terms of credit one of the contributions of this paper is that a comparison of the actual experiences of both female and male business owners in their relationship with financial institutions are compared over a fixed period of time every attempt has been made to carry out these comparisons in a rigorous statistical manner another contribution arises because the findings to be described here are based on a broad and comprehensive study of the small business banking relationship and did not exclusively focus on the male female issues thus any bias that could have occurred in other studies by focusing on women business owner problems is likely to be minimized the findings described in this study are based on a total of 3 217 business principals responses to a national survey the number of women business owners in the sample was 153 in aggregate it was found that the financing conditions for women principals are less favorable than those for male business owners however it was also found that female owned firms tend to be both younger and smaller than male owned firms in the sample moreover woman business owners were more likely to be proprietors than their male counterparts and were less likely to be incorporated businesses in addition a statistically significant tendency for businesses owned by women to be characterized by lower rates of sales growth than those owned by men was also identified these differences between patterns of small business ownership between men and women allow alternative explanations of what might at first seem to be an apparent gender bias in order to separate the effects of ownership patterns from potential gender bias it was necessary to focus on the effect of the gender of the owners by holding constant those factors which provide alternative explanations of the aggregate results this was accomplished by creating benchmark subsamples of male respondents by matching women respondents with male respondents on the basis of age size industry growth rate and organization form of the businesses when this was done one area was identified in which statistically significant gender related differences remained that of collateral requirements for a line of credit apparent gender related differences in the other aspects of banking practices rates of loan approvals cosignature requirements requirements for loan collateral and interest rates on loans and lines of credit can be accounted for by the differences in the characteristics of male and female owned businesses the difference in the collateral required of men and women owners is an important difference collateral requirements were identified as a major concern by a high proportion of all survey respondents in fact collateral requirements appear to be the major banking related concern of small businesses the line of credit is viewed to be essential to growth and survival yet a lower proportion of women owners than men owners report having a line of credit thus it seems that development of the banking relationship including the establishment of a line of credit has proven more difficult for women than for men

a friction model for describing and forecasting price changes this paper presents a new friction model for describing the price changes of a product or brand over time and for forecasting both the timing and magnitude of such changes from one period to the next after a review of the related pricing literature we present our model and a modified controlled random search procedure for estimating its parameters the model is applied to describe and forecast the weekly mortgage interest rates for a local bank in the philadelphia area finally limitations and several potential applications of this methodology are discussed

the economics of small business finance the roles of private equity and debt markets in the financial growth cycle abstract this article examines the economics of financing small business in private equity and debt markets firms are viewed through a financial growth cycle paradigm in which different capital structures are optimal at different points in the cycle we show the sources of small business finance and how capital structure varies with firm size and age the interconnectedness of small firm finance is discussed along with the impact of the macroeconomic environment we also analyze a number of research and policy issues review the literature and suggest topics for future research

the learning curve and the yield factor the case of korea s semiconductor industry this article attempts to find out how the korean economy has grown so rapidly in a short time span of less than 30 years for that purpose it focuses on the development of the korean semiconductor industry more specifically the memory chip segment of the industry as a case in point to test the hypothesis that the learning curve effects have been significant in the memory chip industry yield factor the ratio of sellable chips to total chips in a wafer in semiconductor production is used as a measure of the learning progression that is by tracing how the yield factor for each generation of memory chips has increased one is able to see how well the korean chip makers have exploited the learning effects this article improves the learning by doing modelling by introducing a richer set of yield data and the unit of analysis employed throughout the article is at the firm level which is not common in the literature dealing with east asian development as well as the economics of technology thus enha

decomposing learning by doing in new plants the paper examines learning by doing in the context of a production function in which the other arguments are labor human capital physical capital and vintage as a proxy for embodied technical c

gender discrimination entrepreneurial talent and self employment the trend of female self employment in italy is stable with a low level of participation which confirms the prediction of economic theory on discrimination we contend that gender discrimination alters the distribution of entrepreneurial talent between employees and self employed workers this gives rise to the prediction that the self employed women are less likely to survive when self employed than men because the lesser entrepreneurial talent of women will increase their risk of failure applying markovian analysis to istat s labor market transition matrices we verify this prediction many women try to set up on their own but they fail to remain self employed both because their lesser entrepreneurial talent and because they try to become entrepreneurs without any previous experience of work if you think you re so discriminated against why don t you set up on your own

testing for the presence of some features of increasing returns to adoption factors in energy system dynamics an analysis via the learning curve approach the purpose of this paper is to explain the sources of energy system lock in it presents a comparative analysis of the respective contributions of some features of increasing returns to adoption factors i e learning by doing learning by searching and returns to scale effects in explaining the technological change dynamics in the energy system the paper is technically based on a critical analysis of the learning curve approach econometric estimation of learning and scale effects inherent to seven energy technologies were performed by the use of several learning curve specifications these specifications permit to deal with some crucial issues related to the learning curve estimation which are associated with the problem of omitted variable bias the endogeneity effects and the choice of learning indicators results show that dynamic economies from learning effects coupled with static economies from scale effects are responsible for the lock in phenomena of the energy system they also show that the magnitude of such effects is correlated with the technology life cycle maturity in particular results point out that 1 the emerging technologies exhibit low learning rates associated with diseconomies of scale which are argued to be symptomatic of the outset of the deployment of new technologies characterized by diffusion barriers and high level of uncertainty 2 the evolving technologies present rather high learning rates meaning that they respond quickly to capacity expansion and r d activities development 3 conventional mature technologies display low learning rates but increasing returns to scale implying that they are characterized by a limited additional diffusion prospects

the weak form efficiency of the finnish and scandinavian stock exchanges a comparative note on thin trading this note adds to previous scandinavian evidence produced by the jennergren korsvold 1974 1975 jennergren 1975 jennergren toftnielsen 1977 korhonen 1977 and s0rensen 1982 studies of stock market return randomness in daily data sets from the oslo and stockholm stock exchanges jennergren korsvold 1975 found evidence of nonrandomness in a majority of the 45 stocks studied a similar result was later reported for the copenhagen exchange by jennergren toft nielsen 1977 subsequent studies by jennergren 1975 and s0rensen 1980 further indicated that the serial correlation inherent in stockholm and copenhagen data was strong enough to allow supernormal yields on simple filter strategies 2 the data for our study consist of daily trading or when closings did not occur bid prices adjusted for dividends and issues for all stocks quoted on the helsinki stock exchange hese between february 2 1970 and december 31 1981 along with data on daily trading volumes for the years 1977 81 3 the price file is based on the kop index file 4 throughout this note comparisons with previous results for other scandinavian exchanges are made allowing for variations in sample periods we attempt a study of whether a smaller annual turnover of an exchange effects the degree of nonrandomness exhibited by its stock returns of the

optimal temporal product introduction strategies under valuation changes and learning consider a firm facing two consumer segments with differing valuations for quality the demand is stationary and known and consumers make repeat purchase over two time periods however once a premium product is introduced the valuations of the consumers change in the next period the firm derives a cost savings due to learning effect in the second period the magnitude of which depends on the sales volume in the first period under such a situation should a firm introduce a premium product before a basic product or the vice versa should it introduce two products simultaneously when should a firm expand or consolidate its product line what is the optimal product introduction strategy for a firm using a two period stylized model we seek to answer these questions we characterize the optimal product introduction strategy for the firm we describe three easily calculable parameters that govern the optimal choice of the firm the conditions under which a firm should expand or consolidate its product line are discussed we study the effects of cost savings and customer valuation changes we show that the dominated product strategies in absence of these effects can be a part of an optimal product strategy of a firm under valuation changes and cost savings the managerial implications of the model are discussed

the economics of predation what drives pricing when there is learning by doing predatory pricing a deliberate strategy of pricing aggressively in order to eliminate competitors is one of the more contentious areas of antitrust policy and its existence and efficacy are widely debated the purpose of this paper is to formally characterize predatory pricing in a modern industry dynamics framework that endogenizes competitive advantage and industry structure our framework encompasses important phenomena such as learning by doing network effects switching costs dynamic demand and certain types of adjustment costs due to its prominent role in legal cases involving alleged predation we examine learning by doing in more detail we first show that predation like behavior arises routinely in our learning by doing model equilibria involving predation like behavior typically coexist with equilibria involving much less aggressive pricing to disentangle predatory pricing from mere competition for efficiency on a learning curve we next decompose the equilibrium pricing condition and develop alternative characterizations of a firm s predatory pricing incentives we finally measure the impact of these incentives on industry structure conduct and performance we show that forcing a firm to ignore the predatory incentives in setting its price can have a large impact and that this impact stems from eliminating equilibria with predation like behavior along with the predation like behavior however a fair amount of competition for the market is eliminated

on the individual and incremental information content of accrual earnings cash flows and cash dividends in the finnish stock market abstract this paper investigates the informational characteristics of accrual earnings cash flow based earnings and cash dividend releases in the finnish stock market first the separate effects of the information sources are studied and second the incremental information of these announcements is investigated the results indicate that the market has typically reacted in the same direction as the signs of the unexpected net income cash flow or cash dividend figures suggest however significant time series variation due to the structural changes in the finnish stock market is detected in the results expecially with regard to the cash dividend information it seems that the semi strong efficiency of the finnish stock market has not been fulfilled alternatively this result may be due to the serious problems in risk estimation or due to the impressively high average returns in the finnish stock market during the research period the incremental information content of cash dividends and accounting figures is also evaluated the results suggest that these items of corporate financial information contain at least to some degree different information with respect to each other in addition a significant time series variation of the obtained results is again reported

small firm growth access to capital markets and financial structure review of issues and an empirical investigation this article investigates the financial structure of small firms with an emphasis on growth and access to capital markets neo classical economic life cycle pecking order and agency theory perspectives are reviewed in order to formulate testable propositions concerning levels of long term short term and total debt and liquidity up to date financial data were collected from the u k private database for a large sample comprising of both listed and unlisted small firms regression results indicate significant relationships between financial structure and profitability asset structure size age and stock market flotation but not growth except when rapid and combined with lack of stock market flotation analysis of stock market flotation as an interactive dummy reveals major differences between listed and unlisted small firms the results indicate that the variety of financial structures observed in practice may reflect rational trade offs of various costs on the part of small firm owner managers but that the over reliance on internally available funds and the importance of collateral in the case of unlisted small firms are likely to be major constraints on economic growth

an economic perspective on experience curves and dynamic economies in renewable energy technologies this paper analyzes dynamic economies in renewable energy technologies the paper has two contributions the first is to test the robustness of experience in solar photovoltaic solar thermal and wind energy to the addition of an explicit time trend which has been done in experience studies for other industries but not for renewable energy technologies estimation is carried out on the assumption that cumulative capacity industry production average firm production and electricity generation affect experience and thus the fall in price the second contribution is to test the impact of r d on price reduction in general cumulative experience is found to be highly statistically significant when estimated alone and highly statistically insignificant when time is added to the model the effect of r d is small and statistically significant in solar photovoltaic technology and statistically insignificant in solar thermal and wind technologies

friction in the trading process and the estimation of systematic risk abstract this paper considers how estimates of the market model beta parameter can be biased by friction in the trading process information decision and transaction costs that a leads to a distinction between observed and true returns b causes observed returns to be generated asynchronously for a set of interdependent securities and c thereby introduces serial cross correlation into security returns several propositions are derived from which consistent estimators of beta are obtained and the effect of differencing interval length on beta estimates is specified the formulation is contrasted with the related analyses of scholes williams 1977 and dimson 1979

the learning curve market dominance and predatory pricing sufficient conditions for id and iid are given in the case of two step learning in which a firm reaches the bottom of its learning curve after just two sales however examples are also constructed for the two step learning case in which neither id nor iid holds it is also shown that in equilibrium iid implies that learning is privately disadvantageous although it is socially advantageous finally introducing avoidable fixed costs and possible exit into the model yields a new theory of predatory pricing based on the learning curve hypothesis

what determines the level of informal venture finance investment market clearing forces and gender effects we undertake the first research to move analysis beyond estimating the propensity for a person to become an informal investor and onto the core concern which is the total volume of venture finance we find that a 1 increase in entrepreneurial activity increases the number of informal investors by 1 7 however the average invested amount declines by 0 8 leading to a net positive total increase of about 0 9 this result indicates that to a considerable extent demand for informal investment creates its own supply as a result the research finds that market forces help solve finance constraints for new ventures and hence lessen the need for public policy intervention this effect is stronger for males than females

learning by doing and product durability many durable goods industries are industries that have significant learning affects i examine a monopolist s and social planner s cost minimizing durability choice in both the short and the long run when learning effects are present the model indicates that the relationship between durability and learning depends crucially upon whether or not knowledge decays and on learning s impact on the marginal cost of durability in particular this model demonstrates that swan s 1970 1971 independence result will hold in the long run if knowledge does not decay but will not hold if knowledge does decay thus whether or not monopolists will manufacture products with the same durability or quality as a social planner depends to a large extent on the type of learning process in the industry and on whether or not quality and durability directly influence this learning process

price discrimination and patent policy patent and antitrust policy are often presumed to be in conflict as an important example there is ongoing controversy about whether price discrimination by a patent holder is an illegal or socially undesirable exploitation of monopoly power in this article we show that no conflict exists in many price discrimination cases even ignoring the dynamic effects on incentives for innovation third degree price discrimination by patent holders can raise static social welfare in fact pareto improvements may well occur welfare gains occur because price discrimination allows patent holders to open new markets and to achieve economies of scale or learning further even in cases where discrimination incurs static welfare losses it may be efficient relative to other mechanisms such as length of patent life for rewarding innovators with profits

static and dynamic efficiency of pollution control strategies a great deal of the economic literature on pollution control strategies concentrates on the efficiency of environmental policy instruments most analytical studies in this field show that market instruments are more efficient with respect to the cost of pollution abatement of a given number of polluters than non market instruments according to several analytical studies market instruments should also be more efficient with respect to innovation in pollution abatement equipment than non market instruments in the empirical literature a great number of case studies exist with estimations of the savings of abatement costs of market instruments in a situation without technological progress empirical studies about the impact of environmental policy market instruments on the abatement costs in situations with technological progress are lacking

microcredit an answer to the gender problem in funding microfinance institutions mfis target people excluded from the traditional banking system by providing start up capital to these under financed individuals they enable a greater number of women to start their own business particularly in sectors where initial capital requirements are high our study follows a portfolio of 3 640 microcredit applicants in france over the 2000 2006 time period identifying mfi client profiles and bringing to light gender differences in borrowers compared to a wider sample of entrepreneurs this study shows that the male female gap found amongst company creators is also maintained amongst the clienteles of mfis empirical results also suggest that gender is a decisive factor regarding the amount of credit provided to borrowers when comparing with other factors in the borrower and firm profile thus to a certain extent mfis are found to reinforce gender inequalities in france

estimating betas on daily data for a small stock market abstract this paper examines the properties of different market risk beta measures computed on daily data for a thin security market i e the helsinki stock exchange in finland in accordance with the results by dimson and marsh 1983 the paper shows that differences in trading frequency between different stocks produce a serious bias towards what appears to be stability in estimated betas furthermore the paper shows that when betas are computed the exclusive use of stock prices based on actual trades will not solve the problem of a thin trading bias in measured stability of these beta estimates in fact other methods proposed to cope with the thin trading problem seem to be at least as efficient as use of trade to trade returns finally betas corrected for differences in trading frequency are still shown to be statistically related for firm size

misspecification of capital asset pricing this study documents empirical anomalies which suggest that either the simple one period capital asset pricing model capm is misspecified or that capital markets are inefficient in particular portfolios based on firm size or earnings price e p ratios experience average returns systematically different from those predicted by the capm furthermore the abnormal returns persist for at least two years this persistence reduces the likelihood that these results are being generated by a market inefficiency rather the evidence seems to indicate that the equilibrium pricing model is misspecified however the data also reveals that an e p effect does not emerge after returns are controlled for the firm size effect the firm size effect largely subsumes the e p effect thus while the e p anomaly and value anomaly exist when each variable is considered separately the two anomalies seem to be related to the same set of missing factors and these factors appear to be more closely associated with firm size than e p ratios

patents learning by doing and market structure in the chemical processing industries for a sample of 24 chemical products count data models are used to evaluate firms propensity to patent and the link between patented process innovations and output prices the results show that process patenting was largely an outgrowth of learning by doing propensity to patent increased with firm size but decreased with market concentration reductions in output prices were strongly linked to learning by doing and more weakly to the rate of patenting producer firms appear to have been more successful than non producers in appropriating the value of patented process innovations

learning by doing organizational forgetting and industry dynamics learning by doing and organizational forgetting have been shown to be important in a variety of industrial settings this paper provides a general model of dynamic competition that accounts for these economic fundamentals and shows how they shape industry structure and dynamics previously obtained results regarding the dominance properties of flrms pricing behavior no longer hold in this more general setting we show that forgetting does not simply negate learning rather learning and forgetting are distinct economic forces in particular a model with learning and forgetting can give rise to aggressive pricing behavior market dominance and multiple equilibria whereas a model with learning alone cannot

handling missing prices in a thinly traded stock market implications for the specification of event study methods this paper employs a simulation approach to provide new evidence on how thin trading affects the specification of the event study methods in a thinly traded environment we examine the properties of the returns computed with alternative procedures for handling missing prices as well as their impact on the specification of the event study methods we use the simulation approach to asses the specification of different methods the results indicate that the way missing prices are approximated clearly affects the estimated abnormal returns and the consequent test statistics the increase of variance in the event period needs to be taken into account when estimating standard deviations

predicting risk some new generalizations existing adjustment techniques for forecasting systematic risk of individual firms have been based on relatively uniformative prior knowledge about the cross sectional distribution of risk estimates this study introduces prior information in the form of size and industry based cross sectional distributions of risk estimates such information is incorporated into forecasts using familiar and generalized adjustment techniques the latter being based on recently developed multiple shrinkage methods improved forecast performance results

return intervals systematic risk estimates and firm size abstract prior empirical evidence indicates that the size effect in stock returns is sensitive to the return interval used in estimating systematic risk recently handa kothari and wasley 1989 showed that the size effect is decreased when return interval is lengthened on u s data in this paper we demonstrate that on a thin european security market i e in the finnish stock market the case is just the opposite

start up capital does gender matter female and male entrepreneurs differ in the way they finance their businesses this difference can be attributed to the type of business and the type of management and experience of the entrepreneur indirect effect female start ups may also experience specific barriers when trying to acquire start up capital these may be based upon discriminatory effects direct effect whether gender has an impact on size and composition of start up capital and in what way is the subject of the present paper the indirect effect is represented by the way women differ from men in terms of type of business and management and experience the direct effect cannot be attributed to these differences and is called the gender effect we use of a panel of 2000 dutch starting entrepreneurs of whom approximately 500 are female to test for these direct and indirect effects the panel refers to the year 1994 we find that female entrepreneurs have a smaller amount of start up capital but that they do not differ significantly with respect to the type of capital on average the proportion of equity and debt capital bank loans in the businesses of female entrepreneurs is the same as in those of their male counterparts

the stability of uk risk measures and the problem of thin trading this paper examines the problems of estimating risk measures and their stability in thin markets it shows analytically that conventional approaches used in previous studies can lead to serious overestimates of the stability of risk measures when shares are subject to thin trading it then demonstrates using uk data that this is in fact a serious practical problem and that the resultant biases are of precisely the form predicted finally the paper presents reliable evidence on the stability of uk risk measures by using an estimation method designed to avoid thin trading bias using this approach risk measures are found to be as stable in the uk as they are in the usa this paper examines the stability of risk measures in the uk the focus is on providing reliable evidence in a market where many of the shares suffer from thin trading this is important because thin trading can seriously distort stability measures leading to incorrect conclusions indeed this is a problem which has almost certainly afflicted many previous studies of stability the paper makes four main contributions first it shows analytically that thin trading can lead to serious overstatements about stability second it uses uk data to illustrate that this is in fact a serious practical problem and that the biases are of precisely the form predicted this is important for anyone who wishes to interpret previous claims on beta stability in thin markets third the paper presents reliable evidence on the stability of uk betas by using an estimation method designed to avoid thin trading bias besides avoiding bias our

the financing of business start ups abstract this article investigates the determinants of capital structure and types of financing used around business start ups utilizing a survey that reduces the confounding effects of survivorship bias in particular the influence of start up size asset structure organization type growth orientation and owners characteristics are examined both in the choice and in the magnitude of finance use the results are consistent with the theoretical models incorporating issues such as information asymmetries agency theory and transaction costs the results also demonstrate linkages among providers of finance maturity of assets and the capital structure of start ups while the results provide insights into business finances near the time of creation some recommendations for future research are discussed

business starters and credit rationing this paper investigates which business starters experience credit rationing by simultaneously analyzing which business founders apply for credit and which are refused we argue that credit denial depends largely on the entrepreneurs commitment and signals regarding the repayment of the loan and the success chances of the proposed business our empirical analysis is based on a sample of 1140 potential business starters in the dutch county south limburg our findings show that commitments drive the credit application and approval while the effects of signals are mixed the findings also suggest that business founders have a pretty good idea regarding whether their applications will be honored or not

on the sources of technological change assessing the evidence this paper uses a selective review of the economic literature on technological change to support four points that are important for interpreting and incorporating technological change into formal models of energy and the environment the review 1 supports the notion that no single source dominates the process of technological change it supports roles for rd 3 indicates that these spillovers are often indirect requiring own industry activities to utilize and 4 indicates that simple experience curve calibrations often used in formal models likely include a range of sources of technological change in addition to learning by doing some of which might not be induced by the sorts of policies typically considered in the climate context

technological learning in energy environment economy modelling a survey abstract this paper aims at providing an overview and a critical analysis of the technological learning concept and its incorporation in energy environment economy models a special emphasis is put on surveying and discussing through the so called learning curve both studies estimating learning rates in the energy field and studies incorporating endogenous technological learning in bottom up and top down models the survey of learning rate estimations gives special attention to interpreting and explaining the sources of variability of estimated rates which is shown to be mainly inherent in r d expenditures the problem of omitted variable bias the endogeneity relationship and the role of spillovers large scale models survey show that despite some methodological and computational complexity related to the non linearity and the non convexity associated with the learning curve incorporation results of the numerous modelling experiments give several new insights with regard to the analysis of the prospects of specific technological options and their cost decrease potential bottom up models and with regard to the analysis of strategic considerations especially inherent in the innovation and energy diffusion process in particular the energy sector s endogenous responses to environment policy instruments top down models

managing learning resources for consecutive product generations abstract in this paper we study how a firm should allocate its learning resources when it is concurrently producing two consecutive generations of one product we define learning resources as scarce firm specific resources that a firm allocates towards the improvement of the cost quality or timeliness of its existing products and processes we use empirically tested models for demand substitution and learning curves to formulate this problem and we present our results as propositions with regard to the optimal time at which a firm should direct all its learning resources to the newer product generation depending on the substitution rate of the two product generations the learning rate and the level of cross learning results indicate that learning resources should be managed through a firm wide coordination process that will spread rather than concentrate learning resources not in static but in a dynamic way to ensure continued high returns from these learning resources

financing the emerging firm this study explores the financing choices of 1 214 nascent entrepreneurs in the psed ii dataset funding sources are divided into two broad categories personal and external we develop a set of hypotheses about the kinds of firm and nascent entrepreneur characteristics that would likely influence which categories of financial resources are used and the amounts acquired the majority of financing 57 of all financing for emerging ventures comes from the personal contributions of its founders who contributed a median amount of 5 500 per respondent firms that more likely to acquire external funding were projected to have higher levels of revenue were incorporated and were legally registered nascent entrepreneurs with higher levels of education and net worth were significantly more likely to acquire external funding results from analyses are presented and discussed implications of our findings are provided and suggestions for future research are offered

entry and learning this paper shows the difficulties associated with discerning the impact of learning and pressures of competitive entry on the price and cost of production in commodity markets it shows that the patterns of price and cost movements over time will be dramatically affected by the entry of new competitors if firms possess u shaped average cost curves entry alone can generate price and cost declines which look like learning induced reductions alternatively cost increases may occur even when learning is quite strong this research has dramatic managerial and empirical implications managers operating in highly competitive environments subject to rapid entry must put more emphasis on the role of their own day to day decisions in affecting cost the fact that costs have declined may have nothing to do with learning but may be driven by their reactions to competitive pressures investigators empirically estimating learning curves must also be cognizant of the role entry plays in affecting cost simple compa

the learning curve and optimal production under uncertainty this article examines the implications of the learning curve in a world of uncertainty we consider a competitive firm whose costs decline with cumulative output because the price of the firm s output evolves stochastically future production and cumulative output are unknown and are contingent on future prices and costs we derive an optimal decision rule that maximizes the firm s market value produce when the price exceeds a critical level which is a declining function of cumulative output we show how the shadow value of cumulative production the total value of the firm and the decision to produce depend on the volatility of the price and other parameters uncertainty increases the critical price required for the firm to produce but also increases the value of thefirm thus during periods of high volatility firms facing a learning curve ought to be producing less but are worth more

the impact of entrepreneurship programs on minorities we document the impact of an entrepreneurship training program on startup activity of minorities females and non caucasians we compare entrepreneurial activity between applicants who are accepted into the program with applicants who are program finalists but not accepted we find that the effect of the program is small for minorities in the short run however the effect of the program is more pronounced for minorities likelihood of longer run startup activity whereas the effect on non minorities is small and statistically insignificant we suggest that such programs are most effective for individuals that may otherwise have limited access to entrepreneurial opportunities

what s experience got to do with it sources of cost reduction in a large specialty chemicals producer conventional learning curves relating unit cost to measures of production experience are estimated for 221 specialty chemicals produced by a fortune 500 company detailed records on cost and r d coupled with insights from company personnel are used to explain the variation across products in the rate of cost reduction products that exhibited the strongest relationship between unit cost and measures of production experience were subject to specific initiatives particularly process r d the r d was not however generally motivated or informed by production experience however cumulative past output the most commonly used measure of production experience was related to expected future output which conditioned the expected future returns from r d and the choice of r d projects thus cumulative output was connected to unit costs through its role in conditioning incentives to undertake process r d rather than as a proxy for production experience this suggests that the strong relationship commonly found between unit cost and measures of production experience may reflect incentives to reduce cost as much as learning from production experience

being in someone else s shoes the role of gender in nascent entrepreneurship several studies have shown the existence of significant differences in the rate of new business creation between men and women specifically it has been shown that women are much less likely to be involved in entrepreneurship than men worldwide it is not yet understood however if such differences are the result of personal characteristics of the individual and of her economic environment or are instead the result of universal and perhaps evolutionary phenomena our empirical analysis is conducted using representative samples of population for 37 countries and a special form of bootstrapping that allows us to equalize individuals conditions and as a result analyze the choices of men and women put in identical economic environments and socio economic circumstances

on the impact of infrequent trading on the apt systematic risk components evidence from a thin security market abstract the purpose of this note is to analyze the effects of infrequent trading on the apt systematic risk components using finnish data infrequent trading is reported to influence especially the first systematic risk component produced by factor analysis on stock returns

do young firms owned by recent immigrants outperform other young firms this study compares the performance of new businesses owned by recent immigrants with that of other new firms it addresses an on going unresolved discussion in the academic and professional literatures by drawing on a large sample of canadian business owners whose firms began trading between 2000 and 2004 and using taxation data to track 2004 to 2008 performance the results provide empirical evidence that young immigrant owned exporter firms outperformed young domestically founded firms whether or not they exported however immigrant owned young enterprises that did not export underperformed other young firms owner level factors such as gender growth intentions and experience also influenced growth performance among young smes the results provide evidence that suggests that immigrants have resources such as access to international networks that provide competitive advantage over non immigrant owners that export or aspire to export not all immigrant business owners however are able to lever such advantages the implications of the findings for research and policy are discussed

antitrust policy towards co operative r d ventures this paper surveys the theoretical literature on r d cartels and the empirical literature on problems of appropriability in order to evaluate the case for encouraging antitrust authorities to treat r d cooperative ventures leniently the case for r d cooperative ventures trades potential gains from internalizing technological spillovers off against a possible reduction in output market competition but the empirical evidence suggests that r d spillovers can easily be exaggerated this suggests that the design of antitrust policy towards r d cooperative ventures is likely to be of major importance if they are to yield net social gains and the paper concludes with a critical examination of the ncra introduced in u s and block exemption introduced in europe in the 1980s copyright 1993 by oxford university press

experience and gender effects in an acquiring a company experiment allowing for value messages this paper focuses on a bargaining experiment in which the privately informed seller of a company sends a value message to the uninformed potential buyer who then proposes a price for acquiring the company participants are constantly in the role of either seller or buyer and interact over 30 rounds with randomly changing partners in the other role we test how overstating the value of the company underpricing the received value message and acceptance of price offers are affected by experience and gender constellation like in our companion paper on single play di cagno et al 2015 we control via treatments for awareness of gender constellation one main hypothesis is that gender constellation matters but that the effects become weaker with more experience and that the main experience effects apply across gender constellations

the learning curve and pricing in the chemical processing industries data on 37 chemical products are used to test a number of hypotheses about the learning curve and industrial price behavior the results document a strong and consistent learning effect learning is found to be a function of cumulated industry output and cumulated investment rather than calendar time standard economies of scale appear significant but small in magnitude relative to the learning effect variations in the slope of the learning curve are linked to differences in r d expenditures and capital intensity market concentration is found to be a strong influence on price flexibility and the timing of learningrelated price changes

explaining experience curves for new energy technologies a case study of liquefied natural gas many new energy technologies seem to experience a fall in unit price as they mature in this paper we study the unit price of liquefying natural gas in order to make it transportable by ship to gas power installations all over the world our point of departure is the experience curve approach however unlike many other studies of new energy technologies we also seek to account for autonomous technological change scale effects and the effects of upstream competition among technology suppliers to our surprise we find that upstream competition is by far the most important factor contributing to the fall in unit price with respect to the natural gas business this may have implications for the future development in prices as the effect of increased upstream competition is temporary and likely to weaken a lot sooner than effects from learning and technological change another more general policy implication is that while promoting new energy technologies governments must not forget to pay attention to competition policy

the latent demand for bank debt characterizing discouraged borrowers concerns that small firms encounter credit constraints are well entrenched in the literature despite widespread empirical evidence that a relatively small proportion of small firms have their loan applications rejected however many firms may be discouraged from applying for fear of rejection these businesses are the focus of this paper based on responses to a large scale postal survey of uk small and medium sized enterprises smes we find that twice as many businesses were discouraged from applying for a bank loan than had their loan request denied more particularly we observe a number of distinguishing characteristics of discouraged borrowers relative to applicants these include strategy sector prior entrepreneurial experience and banking relationships the implications of our findings for policy and future research are briefly discussed

how predictable is technological progress abstract recently it has become clear that many technologies follow a generalized version of moore s law i e costs tend to drop exponentially at different rates that depend on the technology here we formulate moore s law as a correlated geometric random walk with drift and apply it to historical data on 53 technologies we derive a closed form expression approximating the distribution of forecast errors as a function of time based on hind casting experiments we show that this works well making it possible to collapse the forecast errors for many different technologies at different time horizons onto the same universal distribution this is valuable because it allows us to make forecasts for any given technology with a clear understanding of the quality of the forecasts as a practical demonstration we make distributional forecasts at different time horizons for solar photovoltaic modules and show how our method can be used to estimate the probability that a given technology will outperform another technology at a given point in the future

improving the economics of building energy code change a review of the inputs and assumptions of economic models abstract building energy code change in australia and many other developed nations is subject to standardised economic tests with a net present value calculation at the heart of the economic analysis although many nations have introduced minimum energy efficiency standards for residential and commercial buildings increases in stringency have been hindered by limitations to the range of private and societal impacts typically incorporated in regulatory impact assessments given the policy move towards net zero energy homes a more comprehensive set of inputs and robust assumptions are needed to support further regulatory change yet the literature provides substantial evidence of many private and societal costs and benefits not commonly incorporated into the economic assessments that underpin regulatory change drawing on a case study of australian and uk residential regulatory change assessments this paper highlights limitations to the range of inputs and assumptions currently incorporated within the economic arguments applied during residential energy code change processes and presents a more comprehensive economic argument that could support further stringency improvements

determinants of small firm debt ratios an analysis of retail panel data in this paper the relevance of some debt ratio determinants from the recent theory of finance is empirically investigated in a small business sector the data used in this study consist of average financial data of 27 shoptypes in 20 different years covering a period of 24 years the panel character of the data facilitates the use of analytical techniques aimed at reducing or avoiding the biasing effect of omitted variables on the outcomes the main conclusion is that the theoretical determinants appear indeed to be relevant for the small business sector investigated here but the influences encountered in the analyses are far less straightforward than the hypothesized effects in the theory influences on total debt are frequently found to be the net effects of opposite influences on long and short term debt and some variables show large time and industry specific effects further distinct patterns in the time specific effects were found

are business startups debt rationed using a large random sample of u k start ups and a rich data set the paper demonstrates that human capital is the true determinant of survival and that the correlation between financial capital and survival is spurious provision of finance is demand driven with banks supplying funds elastically and business requests governing take up firms self select for funds on the basis of the human capital endowments of the proprietors with better businesses more likely to borrow a reason why others have seemingly identified start up debt gaps may be the failure to test a sufficiently rich empirical model copyright 1996 by royal economic society

modifying customer expectations of price decreases for a durable product we study the introductory signalling strategy for a durable product that faces optimistic expectations among customers about price declines over time the firm introducing the product knows that experiential learning is low for the product however customers being uncertain about the extent of experiential learning assign a nonzero probability that the firm s new product will enjoy a high cost reduction with cumulative experience the optimistic expectations of customers reduce their willingness to pay a high price at the product s introduction while predisposing them to buying later the challenge facing the low experience firm is to choose an introductory strategy that will credibly convey the low experience curve effect to customers we use the sequential equilibrium concept in a game theoretic framework to identify the firm s signalling strategy we identify the unique separating equilibrium of the game after refining the set of separating equilibria we demonstrate that a high introductory price credibly signals the low experiential learning to customers we also show that signalling causes an artificial learning curve effect

the impact of the return interval on common factors in stock returns evidence from a thin security market abstract the purpose of this paper is to analyze the effect of the return interval on common factors estimated in finnish stock returns firstly common factors are identified by factor analysis using daily weekly and monthly return intervals the similarity of these factors is then studied applying transformation analysis it is discovered that the factors produced by alternative return intervals significantly differ from each other an exception is the first factor representing the market index of securities

robust capacity planning under uncertainty the existence of uncertainty influences the investment production and pricing decision of firms therefore capacity expansion models need to take into account uncertainty this uncertainty may arise because of errors in the specification statistical estimation of relationships and in the assumptions of exogenous variables one such example is demand uncertainty in this paper a cautious capacity planning approach is described for solving problems in which robustness to likely errors is needed the aim is to cast the problem in a deterministic framework and thereby avoid the complexities inherent in nonlinear stochastic formulations we adopt a robust approach and minimize an augmented objective function that penalises the sensitivity of the objective function to various types of uncertainty the robust or sensitivity approach is compared with friedenfelds equivalent deterministic demand method using numerical results from a large nonlinear programming capacity planning model it is shown that as ca

microfinance and gender issues challenges and the road ahead this special collection examines the claim that microfinance promotes gender equality the focus is on three areas of the debate first the question of how successful microfinance has been in empowering women second whether and how negative gender discrimination operates within the sector third how power relations within and beyond the household shape the context and outcomes of microfinance initiatives the papers in this collection demonstrate the divergence of circumstances and emphasise the need to go beyond the past searches for a simple narrative regarding the impact of microfinance rather as the sector evolves and is incorporated into the mainstream financial system the challenge ahead for researchers is to marshal the evidence on gendered dynamics to ensure that the gains made are built on through deeper understanding of why impact outcomes and processes differ and use this to inform new initiatives to further gender equality

conducting event studies with thinly traded stocks abstract procedures for measuring abnormal performance around events when securities do not trade daily are examined a rank test patterned after the statistic proposed by corrado corrado c j 1989 a nonparametne test for abnormal security price performance in event studies journal of financial economics 23 385 395 is derived the empirical frequency distributions of the rank test statistic and a conventional test statistic are assessed under different rules for handling missing stock returns the results suggest that the traditional procedures are reasonably well specified for thickly and moderately traded stocks but misspecified for thinly traded stocks the rank test however performs well for all trading frequencies and trade to trade returns are the best way to handle missing returns