indonesian agricultural development in comparative perspective abstract in both the late colonial and the early post independence periods most observers of the indonesian economy were pessimistic about the prospects for agricultural and especially foodcrop growth but over the last 15 years food production growth in indonesia has been among the fastest in the world this paper examines the reasons for the accelerated growth and reviews some of the literature on its distributive consequences comparisons are made with other episodes of accelerated agricultural growth in recent asian history especially that of meiji japan it is shown that there are remarkable similarities between agricultural development indicators in indonesia in the 1960s and 1970s and those in meiji japan the challenge for indonesian policy makers in the future will be to build on the agricultural successes of the past two decades in order to create a more diversified economy and ensure sustained economic development

reassessing the effectiveness of industrial policy in indonesia can the neoliberals be wrong abstract the neoliberal interpretation of the indonesian state suggests that industrial policy was incoherent subject to rent seeking and irrelevant to indonesia s post 1966 development success a more nuanced micro historical analysis of the state s interventions demonstrates that this oversimplification misses political elite objectives to overcome the ekonomi kolonial by using the power of the state and selective intervention to create a strong integrated diversified and outward oriented industrial economy ekonomi nasional empirical analysis presented here suggests that indonesia has largely achieved this objective it also suggests that industrial policy has been more important than the neoliberal argument permits

productivity growth in uk manufacturing and production industries 1948 68 this paper estimates residual productivity growth for twenty eight uk manufacturing and production industries for 1948 68 using a production function approach and the importance of distinguishing between a gross output and value added from of production function is stressed the results are compared to those obtained by the cambridge growth project which uses an input output framework the value added production function gives similar results to the cambridge approach and it is shown that this is not altogether surprising the results from a gross output production function are also shown these estimates are generally lower than those obtained using a value added or net output system which is what would be expected

can geographical indications modernize indonesian and vietnamese agriculture analyzing the role of national and local governments and producers strategies summary this paper investigates the way geographical indications gis are implemented by national and local governments in indonesia and vietnam the two states are active at all stages of gi development from the selection of the products candidates for gi registration to the supervision of the gi implementation thanks to the involvement of national experts from public agencies in the establishment of the codes of practices cop they are able to push for the substitution of traditional local techniques with good practices i e mostly those recommended by research centers worldwide thus they put gis at the service of agricultural modernization when gis apply more conventionally to specific products based on traditional know how however the implementation of the cops and thus the achievement of this objective of modernization depend on the perceived interest of producers in the whole gi dynamic indeed the cases studied in indonesia and vietnam highlight the variable level of participation of local producers in the gi in the four studied cases the cops are mainly based on expert knowledge which differs from the actual practices of farmers and processors moreover gis are implemented in order to create or reinforce reputations rather than legally protecting preexisting ones for these two reasons producers motivation to invest in gi certification is weak which makes difficult the necessary collective involvement in both countries the involvement of local governments in gi construction and management modifies the situation thanks to their knowledge of local situations and stakes they are more likely than national experts to identify the most strategic supply chains at local level enable participatory approaches in gi construction and facilitate the involvement of local producers in the gi managing group but if competences have been given to local governments in the indonesian and vietnamese legal frameworks the distribution of roles between central and provincial governments in gis are not clearly enough specified the nature and the importance of local public intervention differ from one case to another finally this paper recognizes the legitimacy of state intervention in gi development at least as long as producers awareness of gis is still low however this state intervention should not only let enough space for producers in gi governance but also design a frame for arousing their interest and adhesion and for facilitating their collective involvement that may be facilitated by a concrete and clearly established decentralization of competences in national policies

dutch disease government policy and import demand in nigeria the effects of sectoral changes and government policies on import demand in nigeria are examined in the context of the oil shocks of the 1970s and 1980s a two equation model is estimated to determine real import demand and the real exchange rate the results show that import demand increased significantly in response to the boom induced squeeze on the agricultural sector furthermore by inducing and sustaining real exchange rate overvaluation expansionary government policies contributed to higher import demand even after the collapse in oil prices

consistent testing for stochastic dominance under general sampling schemes we propose a procedure for estimating the critical values of the extended kolmogorov smirnov tests of stochastic dominance of arbitrary order in the general k prospect case we allow for the observations to be serially dependent and for the first time we can accommodate general dependence amongst the prospects which are to be ranked also the prospects may be the residuals from certain conditional models opening the way for conditional ranking we also propose a test of prospect stochastic dominance our method is based on subsampling and we show that the resulting tests are consistent and powerful against some n 1 2 local alternatives we also propose some heuristic methods for selecting subsample size and demonstrate in simulations that they perform reasonably we describe an alternative method for obtaining critical values based on recentring the test statistic and using full sample bootstrap methods we compare the two methods in theory and in practice

counting and multidimensional poverty measurement this paper proposes a new methodology for multidimensional poverty measurement consisting of an identification method k that extends the traditional intersection and union approaches and a class of poverty measures m our identification step employs two forms of cutoff one within each dimension to determine whether a person is deprived in that dimension and a second across dimensions that identifies the poor by counting the dimensions in which a person is deprived the aggregation step employs the fgt measures appropriately adjusted to account for multidimensionality the axioms are presented as joint restrictions on identification and the measures and the methodology satisfies a range of desirable properties including decomposability the identification method is particularly well suited for use with ordinal data as is the first of our measures the adjusted headcount ratio we present some dominance results and an interpretation of the adjusted headcount ratio as a measure of unfreedom examples from the us and indonesia illustrate our methodology

ranking income distributions a large variety of policy questions involve choices between social states and a consequent ordering of the feasible alternatives when these social states are related to the levels of welfare experienced by individuals or households two central issues stand out in determining the relative desirability of different social outcomes one of these is the essentially positive exercise of achieving comparability between households with different characteristics such as composition or preferences operating in different environments for example facing different price structures the other concerns the normative judgments implicit in the evaluation of alternative allocations of resourcesthe emphasis placed on inequality between households and the extent to which greater inequality can be compensated by higher average living standards this paper focuses on the second of these issues and in doing so we abstract from the problem of household comparability by considering a population of n households identical in all respects except for their incomes the question of ordering social states then becomes one of ranking income distributions over a group of anonymous households or individuals borrowing the usual assumptions imposed on consumer preferences we may suppose that a social ordering of income distributions can be represented by a welfare function 2

an empirical dependent economy model for pakistan abstract pakistan s recent macroeconomic experience has been characterized by rapid growth relatively low inflation and the absence of severe balance of payments crises in spite of very large fiscal deficits this paper addresses the possible role that external inflows in the form of workers remittances and concessional lending may have played in generating these outcomes by conducting counterfactual simulations using an empirically estimated dependent economy macroeconomic model

external disturbances domestic policy responses and debt accumulation in nigeria abstract this paper provides a case study of the link between external shocks domestic policy responses and external debt accumulation in nigeria the indonesian experience during 1970 1989 is provided as a contrast for policy comparison a significant part of the increase in external debt in the two countries corresponds to financing of capital flight after 1981 current account deficits assumed greater importance in the accumulation of external debt the growth in external debt was caused in part by adverse external conditions the results of this study show that the nigerian debt crisis was exacerbated by inappropriate policy responses indonesia avoided a crisis by applying prudent real exchange rate management and fiscal restraint

has recovery begun africa s adjustment in the 1980s revisited this article reviews the 1989 debate between the world bank and the economic commission for africa over africa s adjustment and on the basis of most recent statistics concludes that there is little evidence that the region is in throes of a recovery some countries however did relatively better than others in the 1980s and an attempt is made to account for differences in performance it is concluded that success in adjustment results not from world bank international monetary fund programs as such but rather from policy coherence accompanied by healthy movement in key variables namely the real exchange rate and public development expenditure

trade reform aggregate investment and capital flight on credibility and the value of information abstract in this paper we demonstrate that uncertainty about future policy reversals coupled with irreversible investment confers an option value to foreign exchange and may lead to capital flight and a fall in aggregate investment after a trade reform the analysis focuses on the value of information and the credibility of the policy reform the conclusion points to a potential role for international institutions to prevent such problems

third degree stochastic dominance here f x and g x are less than cumulative probability distributionis where x is a continuous or discrete random variable representing the outcome of a prospect the closed interval a b is the sample space of both prospects the integral shown in rule 2 and those shown throughout the paper are stieltjes integrals recall that the stieltjes integral fb f x dg x exists if one of the functions f and g is continuous and the other has finite variation in a b let d1 d2 and d3 be three sets of utility functions x d1 is the set containing all utility functions with 4 x and 1 x continuous and 41 x 0 for all xe a b d2 is the set with x 1 x 2 x continuous and q j x 0 02 x o for all xc a b d3 is the set with x 1 x 2 x 3 x continuous and 1 x 04 2 x o o for all xc a b here 1 x denotes the ith derivative of x hadar and russell proved that rule 1 is valid for all cd1 and rutle 2 is valid for all ed2 the authors point out that the set of probability distributions that can be ordered by means of second degree stochastic dominance is in general larger than that which can be ordered by means of first degree stochastic dominance note that in rule 2 they assume that x is not only an increasing function of x but also exhibits weak global risk aversion a condition guaranteed by requiring the second derivative of x to be nonpositive in this paper a condition which will be called third degree stochastic dominance is considered it is based on the following assumption about the form of the utility function x from a normative point of view one expects the risk premium associated with an uncertain prospect to become smaller the greater is the individual s wealth the plausibility and implications of this assumption h ave been explored by john pratt as well as others the risk premium of an uncertain prospect is that amount by which the certainty equivalent of the prospect differs from its expected value in mathematical terms given the prospect f x with expected value a the corresponding risk premium t is obtained by solving the following equation rb

stochastic dominance and expected utility survey and analysis while stochastic dominance has been employed in various forms as early as 1932 it has only been since 1969 1970 that the notion has been developed and extensively employed in the area of economics finance agriculture statistics marketing and operations research in this survey the first second and third order stochastic dominance rules are discussed with an emphasis on the development in the area since the 1980s

can an oil discovery lead to a recession a comment on eastwood and venables in a recent paper in this journal eastwood and venables ev present an analysis of the macroeconomic consequence of an oil discovery in an open economy model which assumes perfect international capital mobility rational exchange rate expectations and sluggish adjustment of domestic goods prices in this note the authors attempt to reconcile this apparent contradiction in the literature in particular the authors show that ev s results hinge crucially on their failure to allow for a direct impact of higher oil wealth on money demand even when all the oil revenue accrues to the government this should raise private sector wealth through the anticipated reduction in future tax liabilities in any case the authors find it difficult to conceive a situation in which an oil discovery will raise spending but leave money demand permanently unaffected the purpose of this note is to show the important implications of this observation for the effects of an oil discovery when appropriate monetary accommodation does not take place

coffee money and inflation in colombia abstract the purpose of this paper is to analyse the relationship between coffee money inflation and international competitiveness in colombia the basic hypothesis being investigated is that higher lower prices of coffee will tend to result through the accumulation of international reserves in higher lower inflation in turn this higher inflation will generate for a given rate of devaluation of the nominal exchange rate a reduction of the real exchange rate with the consequent loss of competitiveness in the non coffee tradable goods sector a dutch disease type of model is developed to discuss analytically the relationship between coffee prices money creation and competitiveness in the short and long run empirical results for 1952 1980 are presented these results support the hypothesis that there has been a positive relationship between the price of coffee money creation and inflation in colombia

robust multidimensional poverty comparisons we demonstrate how to make poverty comparisons using multidimensional indicators of well being showing in particular how to check whether the comparisons are robust to aggregation procedures and to the choice of multidimensional poverty lines in contrast to earlier work our methodology applies equally well to what can be defined as union intersection or intermediate approaches to dealing with multidimensional indicators of well being to make this procedure of some practical usefulness the paper also derives the sampling distribution of various multidimensional poverty estimators including estimators of the critical poverty frontiers outside which multidimensional poverty comparisons can no longer be deemed ethically robust the results are illustrated using data from a number of developing countries

real wage and real labour cost growth 1948 81 a disaggregated study the paper examines growth rates in labour cost and real wages for up to 38 separate uk industry categories this reveals much interesting information about labour markets which is ignored in most studies of the real wage the latter are mostly concerned with disequilibrium behaviour of the real wage the theoretical section of the paper explores the relationship between the growth rates in productivity real wages labour costs profit rates and value added prices relative to average prices under the assumption that factor markets are competitive the second section computes these respective growth rates and explores how well the competitive hypothesis stands up the results indicate reasonable agreement with the competitive thesis

the comparison of multi dimensioned distributions of economic status the literature on inequality measurement has been largely concerned with single dimensioned indicators this paper explores some of the issues which arise when there are several dimensions to inequality and these are not readily reduced to a single index concentrating particularly on the two dimensioned case we make use of results on multi variate stochastic dominance in portfolio theory extending these and applying them to the measurement of inequality the use of the dominance conditions is illustrated by an application to the international distribution of income and life expectancy

nigeria during and after the oil boom a policy comparison with indonesia nigeria and indonesia provide an interesting contrast with regard to performance and policy during and after the oil boom roughly a decade after the first oil shock nigeria is faced with several economic problems including a serious decline in its agricultural sector and a deteriorating external debt situation while some decline in the nonoil traded goods sector reflects efficient adjustment to the oil boom policy with regard to public expenditure exchange rates pricing and the trade regime could exacerbate such decline and impede readjustment as the boom subsides the links between oil prices deficits inflation and real exchange rate appreciation are analyzed and nigerian and indonesian fiscal and exchange rate and agricultural and foreign borrowing strategies are compared it is concluded that with the exception of cuts in the deficit since 1984 nigerian policy following the boom has not been conducive to adjustment to the current period of low oil prices and high real interest rates corrective measures and policy options are discussed

international welfare comparisons and nonparametric testing of multivariate stochastic dominance this paper outlines a class of statistical procedures that permit testing of a broad range of multidimensional stochastic dominance hypotheses and more generally welfare hypotheses that rely upon multiple stochastic dominance conditions we apply the procedures to data on income and leisure hours for individuals in germany the uk and the usa we find that no country first order stochastically dominates the others in both dimensions for all years of comparison furthermore while in general the usa stochastically dominates germany and the uk with respect to income in most periods germany stochastically dominates with respect to leisure hours finally we find evidence that bivariate poverty which refers for example to the working poor that is those who have little leisure and low income is lower in germany than in either the uk or the usa on the other hand poverty comparisons between the uk and the usa are sensitive to the subpopulation of individuals considered copyright 2007 john wiley sons ltd

innovation in rural finance indonesia s badan kredit kecamatan program abstract donor agencies and governments are committing increasing resources to microenterprise credit programs much as they earlier funded rural credit yet few programs embody the lessons from this earlier experience central java s badan kredit kecamatan program shows considerable promise in providing the access convenience and flexibility desired by poor borrowers while assuring the financial viability of the credit institution by minimizing administrative costs and imposing interest rates sufficient to cover costs and prevent capital erosion recent progress has also been made in mobilizing voluntary savings strong political support from the government has been crucial to the program s success

convergence of the south and non south income distributions 1969 1979 income distribution and inequalities in the southern united states are analyzed and compared with data for the rest of the country the evidence presented in this paper reveals that in the 1970s the souths income distribution either converged or moved significantly closer to the income distribution of the rest of the country the degree of convergence depends on the definition of the recipient unit and to a degree on the particular cost of living index used to deflate southern and non southern incomes the convergence is attributed in part to the labor unionization in the northeast and the resulting relocation of companies to the south data are from the 1970 and 1980 censuses and concern total household income excerpt

aggregate poverty measures the way poverty is measured is important for an understanding of what has happened to poverty as well as for anti poverty policy evaluation sen s 1976 pathfinding work has motivated many researchers to focus on the way poverty should be measured a poverty measure argued by sen should satisfy certain properties or axioms and the desirability of a poverty measure should be evaluated by these axioms during the last two decades many researchers have adopted the axiomatic approach pioneered by sen to propose additional axioms and develop alternative poverty measures the objective of this survey is to provide a clarification on the extensive literature of aggregate poverty measures in this survey we first examine the desirability of each axiom the properties of each poverty measure and the interrelationships among axioms the desirability of an axiom cannot be evaluated in isolation and some combination of axioms may make it impossible to devise a satisfactory poverty measure some axioms can be implied by other axioms combined and so are not independent some others are ad hoc and are disqualified as axioms for poverty measurement based on the interactions among axioms we identify the core axioms which together have a strong implication on the functional form of a poverty measure we then review poverty measures that have appeared in the literature evaluating the interrelationships among different measures and examining the properties of each measure the axioms each measure satisfies violates are also summarized in a tabular form several good poverty measures which have not been documented by previous surveys are also included

on the measurement of poverty official statistics in the united states and the united kingdom show a rise in poverty between the 1970 s and the 1980 s but scepticism has been expressed with regard to these findings in particular the methods employed in the measurement of poverty have been the subject of criticism this paper re examines three basic issues in measuring poverty the choice of the poverty line the index of poverty and the relation between poverty and inequality one general theme running through the paper is that there is a diversity of judgments which enter the measurement of poverty and that it is necessary to recognize these explicitly in the procedures adopted there is likely to be disagreement about the choice of poverty line affecting both its level and its structure in this situation we may only be able to make comparisons and not to measure differences and the comparisons may lead only to a partial rather than a complete ordering the first section of the paper discusses the stochastic dominance conditions which allow such comparisons illustrating their application by reference to data for the united states the choice of poverty measure has been the subject of an extensive literature and a variety of measures have been proposed in the second section of the paper a different approach is suggested considering a class of measures satisfying certain general properties and seeking conditions under which all members of the class which includes many of those proposed give the same ranking those sceptical about measures of poverty often assert that poverty and inequality are being confounded the third section of the paper distinguishes four different viewpoints and relates them to theories of justice and views of social welfare