producer services comparative advantage and international trade patterns we unite the theories of factor abundance and monopolistic competition to explore the general equilibrium relations between trade in producer services economies of scale and factor markets in our model two final goods are produced using capital labor and a variety of differentiated producer services that are produced under increasing returns to scale we analyze the implications for comparative advantage and trade in goods between two countries that differ in factor endowments and in technology of service provision moreover we use the concept of the integrated world equilibrium to investigate trade in goods and services also when services require foreign direct investments

currency unions in africa is the trade effect substantial enough to justify their formation using estimates that currency unions double trade we quantify the welfare effects of forming currency unions for the african regional economic communities and for the african union as a whole the potential increase in trade is shown to be small and much less than that resulting from the adoption of the euro allowing for increased african trade does not overturn the negative assessment of african currency unions due to asymmetries in countries terms of trade shocks and their degree of fiscal discipline

the impact of progresa on food consumption abstract in this article we used data from the mexican poverty alleviation program called progresa programa de educacion salud y alimentacion to examine whether eligibility for a cash transfer provided by the program conditional on children s regular school attendance and regular visits to health centers is also associated with increased consumption of food we used a longitudinal sample of approximately 24 000 households from 506 communities a distinguishing characteristic of this sample was that some of the communities were randomly selected for participation in progresa while the rest were introduced into the program at later phases exploiting this feature in our analysis we found that eligible households in the villages covered by progresa increased caloric acquisition compared with eligible households not receiving these benefits by november 1999 median beneficiary households in treatment localities obtained 6 4 more calories than did comparable households in control localities perhaps eve

the g20 at the cancun ministerial developing countries and their evolving coalitions in the wto in large measure the voice that developing countries were able to exercise in cancun was a result of their effective coalition formation in this paper we present a brief overview of the various coalitions that played an important role at cancun the greater part of this paper focuses on one among these various coalitions the g20 on agriculture the g20 presents an especially fascinating case of a coalition that combined a great diversity of members and apparently incompatible interests all theoretical reasoning and historical precedent predicted that the group would collapse in the endgame and yet the group survived we investigate the sources of the unity of this group and trace them to a process of learning that allowed the group to acquire certain structural features and develop strategies that helped to cement it further while our central dependent variable is the cohesion of the g20 we also address the derivative question of the costs and benefits of maintaining such coalitions the cancun coalitions give us an excellent case of coalitions that managed to retain their cohesion but also ended up with a situation of no agreement rather than a fulfilment of even some of their demands we examine some of the causes behind the impasse in the negotiation process and suggest ways in which future outcomes could be improved

the real effects of financial integration abstract this paper shows how correlations in gdp fluctuations rise with financial integration finance serves to increase international correlations in both consumption and gdp fluctuations which explains the persistent gap between the two in the data a quantity puzzle the positive association between financial integration and gdp correlation constitutes a puzzle as theory suggests a negative relation if anything nevertheless it prevails in the data even after the effects of finance on trade and specialization are accounted for

monetary union in west africa and business cycles synchronicity new evidence in the light of the initiative of the west african monetary zone wamz to introduce a common currency by 2020 this paper investigates the intricacies of the business cycles synchronicity among the six countries given i the rising importance of trade and cooperation with china ii the consideration of the euro as a potential anchor currency and a vehicle for trade with the eurozone and iii the importance of nigeria as the largest country of the group and the main supplier of oil we investigate the relative importance of these three major players in having their business cycles linked with the group in addition we investigate the underlying determinants of the business cycles synchronicity among the wamz countries on a pairwise basis results show a clear dominance of china s business cycle synchronicity with the wamz over europe s and nigeria s trade integration emerges as the key underlying factor of the common cycle observed

bank integration and state business cycles we investigate how integration of bank ownership across states has affected economic volatility within states in theory bank integration could cause higher or lower volatility depending on whether credit supply or credit demand shocks predominate in fact year to year fluctuations in a state s economic growth fall as its banks become more integrated via holding companies with banks in other states as the bank linkages between any pair of states increase fluctuations in those two states tend to converge we conclude that interstate banking has made state business cycles smaller but more alike i introduction the united states banking system was once anything but united until 1978 every state in the union barred banks from other states so instead of one national banking system we had more like 50 little banking systems one per state 1 once states opened their borders to out of state banks bank holding companies marched in and bought up or merged with banks all over the country in 1975 just 10 percent of the bank assets in the typical state were owned by a multistate bank holding company by 1994 this interstate bank asset ratio had risen to 60 percent figure i our paper investigates how the advent of interstate banking integration in the united states has affected economic volatility within states with the united states balkanized banking system the fate of a state and its banks were closely tied as went the state so went the banks the farm price deflation in the early 1980s bankrupted many farmers and many farm banks falling oil prices in the mid 1980s wiped out a lot of texans and a lot of texas banks shocks to commodity prices probably caused these contractions but frictions in the banking sector may have aggravated them by allowing a freer flow of bank capital and lending among states we maintain that interstate banking will reduce the drag that banking frictions can have on economic contractions

monetary union in west africa who might gain who might lose and why we develop a model in which governments financing needs exceed the socially optimal level because public resources are diverted to serve the narrow interests of the group in power from a social welfare perspective this results in undue pressure on the central bank to extract seigniorage monetary policy also suffers from an expansive bias owing to the authorities inability to precommit to price stability such a conjecture about the fiscal monetary policy mix appears quite relevant in africa with deep implications for the incentives of fiscally heterogeneous countries to form a currency union we calibrate the model to data for west africa and use it to assess proposed ecowas monetary unions fiscal heterogeneity indeed appears crit ical in shaping regional currency blocs that would be mutually beneficial for all their members in particular nigeria s membership in the configurations currently envisaged would not be in the interests of other ecowas countries unless it were accompanied by effective containment on nigeria s financing needs jel classification e58 e61 e62 f33 union monetaire en afrique de l ouest qui pourrait gagner qui pourrait perdre et pourquoi les auteurs developpent un modele dans lequel les besoins financiers des gouvernements depassent le niveau socialement optimal parce que des ressources pub liques sont detournees de maniere aservir les interets etroits du groupe au pouvoir dans une perspective de bien etre social cela entraine des pressions indues sur la banque centrale pour qu elle extraie du seigneuriage la politique monetaire souffre

modelling macroeconomic shocks in the cfa franc zone abstract in this paper we modify the method of blanchard and quah american economic review 79 1989 655 in order to estimate a structural var model appropriate for a small open economy in this way we identify shocks to output and prices in the members of the two monetary unions that make up the african cfa franc zone the costs of monetary union membership will depend on the extent to which price and output shocks are correlated across countries and the degree of similarity in the long run effects of the shocks on the macroeconomy the policy conclusions depend on the relative importance of different macroeconomic variables to policymakers and the speed with which a policymaker is able to respond to a shock

intra industry trade and protectionism the case of the buy national policy this article examines the factors that lead governments to open up their public procurement markets to international competition with a particular emphasis on the effect of intra industry trade contrary to the conventional notion that intra industry trade entails less political pressure for protectionism than inter industry trade i argue that such notion does not prevail in the case of discriminatory public procurement firms in a market with a high degree of intra industry trade are more likely to resist the removal of discrimination than would firms in a market with a high degree of inter industry trade empirically i find support for the argument both at sub national and cross national settings

economists capitalists and the making of globalization north american free trade in comparative historical perspective why did globalization happen current explanations point to a variety of conditions under which states have made the free market policy changes driving international economic integration since the 1980s such accounts disagree however about the key actors involved this article provides a reconciliation showing how two different combinations of actors and two different political economic pathways have led to globalization in recent decades in developed countries mobilization by business has been central elsewhere technocrats both constrained and empowered by international finance have pursued globalization more independently of business in both contexts economists technical authority has helped legitimate liberalization despite the limited diffusion of their ideas the article validates and elaborates this model using a comparative historical study of how the united states canada and mexico proposed negotiated and ratified agreements for free trade in north america

openness external risk and volatility implications for the compensation hypothesis a central assumption in the globalization literature is that economic openness generates economic insecurity and volatility based on this assumption schol ars of international political economy have proposed the compensation hypothesis which claims that globalization bolsters rather than undermines the welfare state by increasing public demand for social protection against externally generated eco nomic instability the openness volatility link is dubious however on both theoret ical and empirical grounds in this study i revisit the volatility assumption focusing on a crucial difference between openness and external risk in their effect on volatil ity my statistical analysis of a panel data set from 175 countries 1950 2002 finds a consistent effect of external risk on volatility of the major economic aggregates but a largely insignificant effect of openness these findings suggest that economic volatility may be a mistaken link in explaining the openness spending nexus calling for further research on the causal mechanisms linking the two the general growth of government in the post world war ii era is one of the most important empirical regularities in political science measured by general govern ment consumption or sectoral expenditures government size grew dramatically during most of the postwar period intrigued by this phenomenal government growth political scientists offered numerous accounts some viewing this growth as a corollary of economic phenomena such as modernization industrialization income distribution or fiscal illusion and others attributing government growth to political causes such as bureaucratization interest group politics and electoral competition 1

endogenous trade policy through majority voting an empirical investigation abstract the median voter approach to trade policy determination within a heckscher ohlin framework as in mayer am econ rev 74 5 1984 970 predicts that an increase in inequality holding constant the economy s overall relative endowments raises trade barriers in capital abundant economies and lowers them in capital scarce economies we find support for this prediction using cross country data on inequality capital abundance and diverse measures of protection we perform certain robustness checks that include controlling for the effects of political rights and schooling as well as using alternative datasets on factor endowments

provoking preferences unionization trade policy and the ilwu puzzle if any group of american blue collar workers has benefited from the growth of trade it is the unionized dockworkers along the us west coast nevertheless the international longshore and warehouse union ilwu representing these workers is vocally opposed to trade liberalization we examine several competing explanations for this puzzle and evaluate them by tracing the union s stance on trade over several decades we also use an original survey to compare ilwu affiliates attitudes on trade with those of nonmembers with otherwise similar characteristics consistent with a model of organizational socialization the data support the hypothesis that ilwu membership affects the members revealed political opinions the data are difficult to reconcile with standard theories of international trade our findings indicate that the political support for trade depends not just on voters structural positions in the economy but also on the organizations and networks in which they are embedded

the impact of development on women a specific factors analysis abstract the specific factors model is employed in this paper as a means of explaining how economic development may serve to diminish women s welfare three changes associated with the development process are analyzed for their effect on women s real and relative wage 1 an expansion of trade induced by an improvement in the terms of trade 2 technological change and 3 an increase in female labor force participation

the impact of obesity on wages abstract previous studies of the relationship between body weight and wages have found mixed results this paper uses a larger data set and several regres sion strategies in an attempt to generate more consistent estimates of the effect of weight on wages differences across gender race and ethnicity are explored this paperjnds that weight lowers wages for white females ols esti mates indicate that a difference in weight of two standard deviations roughly 65 pounds is associated with a difference in wages of 9 percent in absolute value this is equivalent to the wage effect of roughly one and a half years of education or three years of work experience negative cor relations between weight and wages observed for other gender ethnic groups appear to be due to unobserved heterogeneity i introduction several previous studies have found among females a negative cor relation between body weight and wages there exist three broad categories of ex planations for this finding the first explanation is that obesity lowers wages for example by lowering productivity or because of workplace discrimination the sec ond is that low wages cause obesity this would be true if poorer people consume

common trends and common cycles the existence of a serial correlation common feature among the first differences of a set of i 1 variables implies the existence of a common cycle in the beveridge nelson stock watson decomposition of those variables a test for the existence of common cycles among cointegrated variables is developed the test is used to examine the validity of the common trend common cycle structure implied by flavin s excess sensitivity hypothesis and campbell and mankiw s mixture of rational expectations and rule of thumb hypothesis for consumption and income linear independence between the cointegration and the cofeature vectors is exploited to decompose consumption and income into their trend and cycle components copyright 1993 by john wiley sons ltd

the u s patent system in transition policy innovation and the innovation process abstract this paper surveys the major changes in patent policy and practice that have occured in the last two decades in the u s and reviews the existing analyses by the economists that attempt to measure the impacts these changes have had on the processes of technological change it also reviews the broader theoretical and empirical literature that bears on the expected effects of changes in patent policy despite the significance of the policy changes and the wide availability of detailed data relating to patenting robust conclusions regarding the empirical consequences for technological innovation of changes in patent policy are few possible reasons for these limited results are discussed and possible avenues for future research are suggested

the impact of stronger intellectual property rights on science and technology in developing countries abstract this paper identifies some effects of the global trend towards stronger protection of intellectual property rights on developing countries and traces related debates pharmaceutics biodiversity and ethnic knowledge are critical areas of impact trade relating intellectual property might allow developing countries to be compensated but incentive implementation of optimal compensation in the legislatures seems infeasible scientific communities in developing countries are particularly vulnerable to limitations of cooperation and access to information resulting from stronger intellectual property rights protection as their efforts to obtain normal science results must be considerable consequences of the bayh dole act and of the patenting of research tools on international scientific cooperation are analysed in this context

tariffs quotas and terms of trade the case of new zealand abstract this paper reports quantitative information on the effects of tariffs and quotas on prices of individual goods the analyses uses the natural experiment provided by a comprehensive unilateral trade policy reform in new zealand to examine the response of foreign exporters to an incident of liberalisation that is unique in the developed world the price effects of tariffs and quotas are estimated using a multidestination 7 digit longitudinal product level dataset on export values and quantities the effects are found to be by no means equivalent whereas tariffs display no significant effect the impact that quantitative restrictions have on the terms of trade of the country that imposes them are unequivocally detrimental and quantitatively important

resistance to reform status quo bias in the presence of individual specific uncertainty comment why do governments so often fail to adopt policies which economists consider to be efficiency enhancing our answer to this question relies on uncertainty regarding the distribution of gains and losses from reform we show that there is a bias towards the status quo and hence against efficiency enhancing reforms whenever some of the individual gainers and losers from reform cannot be identified beforehand there are reforms which once adopted will receive adequate political support but would have failed to carry the day ex ante the argument does not rely on risk aversion irrationality or hysteresis due to sunk costs jel d72 f13 why do governments so often fail to adopt policies that economists consider to be efficiency enhancing this is one of the fundamental questions of political economy the answer usually relies on what may be

reaping what you sow an empirical analysis of international patent harmonization abstract this paper extends analysis of the gatt uruguay round by quantifying the impact of international patent harmonization as implied by the trips agreement patent harmonization has the capacity to generate large transfers of income between countries the us being the major beneficiary developing countries are major contributors to these transfers but canada the uk and japan also make sizable contributions

are external shocks responsible for the instability of output in low income countries external shocks such as commodity price fluctuations natural disasters and the role of the international economy are often blamed for the poor economic performance of low income countries the author quantifies the impact of these different external shocks using a panel vector autoregression var approach and compares their relative contributions to output volatility in low income countries vis a vis internal factors he finds that external shocks can only explain a small fraction of the output variance of a typical low income country internal factors are the main source of fluctuations from a quantitative perspective the output effect of external shocks is typically small in absolute terms but significant relative to the historic performance of these countries

world economic expansion and national security in pre world war i europe profound and rapid changes in the costs and risks of international trade are now widely acknowledged to be a potent source of domestic political conflict by altering the relative prices of goods available from world markets these changes alter the rewards that flow to different factors of production from different economic activities these distributional consequences of changing levels of trade in turn alter the configuration of interests in the domestic political economy strain existing political alignments and enable the construction of new political coalitions thus global changes in the economy such as the transportation and telecommunications revolutions in the nineteenth and mid twentieth centuries or the collapse of international trade and finance during the interwar years will have global consequences as they reverberate within and through the domestic politics of all countries that trade on world markets

determinants of patent rights a cross national study abstract this paper presents an index of patent rights for 110 countries for the period 1960 1990 the index is used to examine what factors or characteristics of economies determine how strongly patent rights will be protected the evidence does indicate that more developed economies tend to provide stronger protection but the underlying factors which influence patent protection levels are the country s level of research and development r d activity market environment and international integration which are correlated with its level of development the results qualify however that r d activity influences patent protection levels after a nation s research sector reaches a critical size an implication of this is that to raise patent protection levels in weakly protecting countries it is important to foster a significant research base in those countries and thereby create incentives for protecting patent rights

international trade and domestic politics improving on rogowski s model of political alignments ronald rogowski s work offers valuable insight into the impact of changing trade exposure on domestic politics exploring the political implications of the well known factor endowments model of international trade theory rogowski argues that owners of relatively abundant productive factors will form a free trading coalition against owners of relatively scarce productive factors who will align in favor of protection rogowski s parsimonious three factor version of the factor endowments theory although offering valuable insight into the politics of less developed economies including today s developed economies in earlier centuries produces significant anomalies when applied to advanced economies intuitive logic and empirical research especially the leontief paradox suggest that the highly complex division of labor found in developed countries will confound the simplicity of the three factor model edward learner s multifactor model suggests solutions to the anomalies that afflict rogowski s simpler model when applied to recent politics in the united states and europe

why free trade losers support free trade industrialists and the surprising politics of trade reform in brazil the rush to free trade that began in latin america in the 1980s remains inadequately explained among several puzzles connected with this shift the degree of support for free trade among industrialists especially stands out this article argues that the inability to account for industrialists behavior lies in political economy s tendency to derive preferences from market position instead the author argues that contextual factors shape preferences and behavior he makes the argument by examining brazilian industrialists a least likely group to endorse the policy shift the author provides evidence that brazilian industrialists supported commercial liberalization despite real distributive consequences factors that help explain support include the effects of economic crisis bundling of free trade with other desirable policies the prevalence of adjustment options and the absence of a distinct class of losers the author relies on survey evidence business rankings and documentary evidence to mak

on the form of transfers to special interests an important question in political economy concerns the form of transfers to special interests the chicago view is that political competition leads politicians to make such transfers efficiently the virginia position is that lack of information on the part of voters leads politicians to favor inefficient sneaky methods of redistribution this paper analyzes the form of transfers in a model of political competition in which politicians have incentives to make transfers to special interests it shows that when voters have imperfect information about both the effects of policy and the predispositions of politicians inefficient methods of redistribution may be employed

societal preferences partisan agents and monetary policy outcomes if different producer groups have divergent interests concerning macroeconomic policies how do societal preferences translate into state policy outcomes i develop and test a party as agent framework for understanding the importance of societal preferences with regard to monetary policy under capital mobility following the principal agent model political parties function as agents for different societal principals rightist parties tend to represent internationally oriented business groups with preferences for monetary convergence while leftist parties do the same for domestically oriented groups preferring monetary autonomy under capital mobility i present statistical evidence showing that oecd leftist governments have been associated with more monetary autonomy and currency variability than their rightist counterparts even after controlling for basic economic indicators such as inflation the statistical evidence also shows that societal group size tends not to explain either autonomous monetary policy choices or exchangerate stability thus even large and wealthy societal groups may be unable to obtain their preferred policy outcome when their respective partisan agents do not hold government power

integration of the sales force an empirical examination this article develops and tests a model of integration of a marketing function personal selling the model derived from transaction cost analysis as developed principally by williamson is formulated as a logistic function which is estimated with data from the electronic components industry as expected integration is associated with increasing levels of asset specificity difficulty of performance evaluation and the combination of these two factors contrary to the transaction cost model neither frequency of transactions nor interaction of specificity and environmental uncertainty is significantly related to integration the transaction cost model improves significantly upon the fit of a simple model relating integration to company size alone these results suggest that for studying transactions of this kind it is fruitful to view the firm as a governance structure

what determines individual trade policy preferences abstract this article provides new evidence on the determinants of individual trade policy preferences using individual level survey data for the united states there are two main empirical results first we find that factor type dominates industry of employment in explaining support for trade barriers second we find that home ownership also matters for individuals trade policy preferences independent of factor type home ownership in counties with a manufacturing mix concentrated in comparative disadvantage industries is correlated with support for trade barriers this finding suggests that in addition to current factor incomes driving preferences as in standard trade models preferences also depend on asset values

targeting the poor in mexico an evaluation of the selection of households into progresa abstract in this paper we conduct an evaluation of the targeting method used by health education and nutrition program progresa of mexico to identify beneficiary households we address two key questions a how well does progresa s targeting perform and b how does the program perform in terms of its impact on poverty alleviation relative to other feasible methods and transfer schemes the first question is accomplished by comparing progresa s method to an alternative selection method based on household consumption which is our preferred measure of welfare we employ the concepts of undercoverage and leakage and find that progresa selection method is more effective in identifying the extremely poor localities or households but less so when it comes to distinguishing among localities or households in the middle of the scale to address the second question we compare the potential impact of progresa on poverty alleviation against uniform transfers that involve no targeting at all targeting based on consumption and geographic targeting i e targeting at the locality level rather than at the household level we find that progresa s method of targeting households outperforms uniform coverage and targeting at the locality level in terms of reducing the poverty gap and severity of poverty indices even after taking into account the economic costs of targeting but the closeness of progresa s performance to what could be achieved by geographic targeting alone raises some serious questions about the costs and benefits associated with the practice of household targeting within poor localities

trade related intellectual property rights north south trade and biological diversity in the trade related intellectual property rights trips agreement of gatt 1 january 1995 it was agreed to harmonise intellectual property rights ipr on an international level and to include the option for patent protection for all life forms such as plants and animals article 27 3 b patenting however leads to considerable conflicts between international trade and protection of biological diversity which can be illustrated by the example of seed production we make use of a three stage game to show the strategic incentives for implementation of two different property rights regimes patents and farmers rights on competition and biodiversity we show that the southern government has no incentive to acknowledge international patents even if farmers rights do exist the northern producer will always dominate in the output market if patents are applied but without farmers rights biodiversity will not be maintained by the southern government thus total payoff of the northern firm is maximized if both ipr regimes are implemented however if only farmers rights are valid biodiversity will be maximal

organizing interests and coalitions in the politics of market reform in latin america a recent wave of deep empirical research provides a solid basis for a comparative reassessment of the role of coalitions in the politics of market reform in latin america in the 1990s this research confirms earlier findings that interest groups and distributional coalitions were not major protagonists in either antireform or proreform coalitions the new research goes further empirically into analyzing the origins of interests especially business interests and finds them to be much more ambiguous and dynamic than assumed in earlier studies consequently other factors especially organizations and the evolving macroeconomic context were stronger influences on preferences regarding reform given the relative weakness of interest group coalitions the article provides a typology and preliminary analysis of other kinds of coalitions electoral legislative and policy that have become more central to reform politics these other types of coalitions still require further theoretical elaboration and empirical investigation in order to determine how they can best be deployed to illuminate reform politics

economic interests and regional trading arrangements the case of nafta this article examines lobbying in the united states on the north american free trade agreement nafta i argue that economies of scale and production sharing across borders create incentives for firms to seek regional trade liberalization statistical analysis demonstrates that sectors with these characteristics were more likely to lobby for free trade in north america these sectors were also exposed to free trade more rapidly under the tariff phasing schedule in the nafta treaty however corporate restructuring to rescale production for the regional market and to increase offshore assembly presented adjustment costs for u s workers which created divisions between labor unions and their employers i conclude that regional arrangements are an attractive mechanism to liberalize trade for firms in need of larger than national markets to take advantage of economies of scale or to develop production sharing networks

welfare effects of global patent protection this paper uses a simple model of invention and patent protection to examine the welfare effects of extending patent protection from the country where invention takes place to another country that is only a consumer of invented products it is shown that while the welfare of the inventing country certainly rises with the extension of patent protection that of the other country probably falls and may well fall by more than the increase in welfare of the inventing country in particular as patent protection is extended to a larger and larger portion of the world the effect on the welfare of the world as a whole of extending it to the rest of the world becomes negative

the politics of public aid to private industry the role of policy networks firms lobby for subsidies along geographic sector or factor lines and as a result receive subsidies with a local sectoral or factorwide scope this article investigates what determines the line of cleavage and thereby the scope of the subsidy the factor mobility hypothesis according to which an economic prior the degree of factor mobility determines the geometry of lobbying coalitions misses the fact that factor mobility is as much the product of policy and policymaking as it is its determinant this article argues instead that politicians maximize their chances of staying in power through the deliberate use of subsidies to structure the political debate and embed factor owners into stable policy networks individual factor owners in turn join these policy networks to lobby for monopoly rents capable of insuring them against adverse economic competition the model yields two testable hypotheses first right governments favor subsidies to capital whereas left governments favor subsidies to lab

doctors with borders occupational licensing as an implicit barrier to high skill migration research on the political economy of immigration overlooks the specificity of human capital in skilled occupations and its implications for immigration preferences and policymaking conclusions that skilled americans are unconcerned about labor market competition from skilled migrants build on a simple dichotomy between high and low skill migrants in this article we show that natives turn to occupational licensing regulations as occupation specific protectionist barriers to skilled migrant labor competition in practice high skill natives face labor market competition only from those high skill migrants who share their occupation specific skills licensure regulations ostensibly serve the public interest by certifying competence but they can simultaneously be formidable barriers to entry by skilled migrants from a collective action perspective skilled natives can more easily secure sub national occupation specific policies than influence national immigration policy we exploit the unique structure of the american medical profession that allows us to distinguish between public interest and protectionist motives for migrant physician licensure regulations we show that over the 1973 2010 period states with greater physician control over licensure requirements imposed more stringent requirements for migrant physician licensure and as a consequence received fewer new migrant physicians by our estimates over a third of all us states could reduce their physician shortages by at least 10 percent within 5 years just by equalizing migrant and native licensure requirements this article advances research on the political economy of immigration and highlights an overlooked dimension of international economic integration regulatory rent seeking as a barrier to the cross national mobility of human capital and the public policy implications of such barriers

tariffs subsidies and welfare with endogenous policy abstract it is a well established proposition of trade theory that in the absence of directly trade related distortions or policy goals subsidies are superior to tariffs for achieving any economic or non economic objective this paper shows that once the endogeneity of the distortion or non economic objective is allowed for the welfare ranking of various policies can be reversed the particular model analyzed is one where the level of non economic objectives that have to be fulfilled itself depends on the policy tools considered to fulfill them with this arises from the public good nature of tariffs compared to subsidies

business cycles synchronicity and income levels has globalisation brought us closer than ever research on business cycle linkages shows a tendency to model countries of relatively the same income levels jointly however the issue of whether these countries move along the same business cycles has not been formally investigated in the literature in this paper we take this approach and investigate whether each group of countries follows its own dynamics and is therefore subjected to the same business cycle and whether these cycles are independent of each other across income groups results indicate that high income per capita countries hics tend to be guided by stronger similarity in business cycles than countries in the middle mics and low income lics groups in search for an explanation of the business cycles synchronicity observed panel data analysis was explored the results from the robust fixed effects estimation show neither trade openness nor shocks to consumption underlie international business cycle synchronization but rather shocks to oil prices

union organization in advanced industrial democracies i suggest a new explanation of cross national differences in unionization rates the size of the labor force size matters because the gains unions are able to achieve in collective bargaining depend on the proportion of substitutable workers who are organized while the costs of organizing depend in part on the absolute number to be recruited the comparison of the costs and benefits of organizing new workers yields the conclusion that unions in larger labor markets will accept lower levels of unionization statistical analysis of cross national differences in unionization rates among advanced industrial societies in the late 1970s indicates that the size of the labor force and the cumulative participation of leftist parties in government explain most of the variance

vertical trade specialization and the formation of north south ptas during the last two decades the number of preferential trade agreements pta s grew almost exponentially to over 270 by 2010 a majority of these are agreements between developed and developing countries existing models provide little economic rationale for these agreements but the existing literature lumps north south pta s together with other types of trade pacts this article offers an explanation focused on the movement of less capital intensive manufacturing from north to south which in turn stimulates the exchange of similar goods differentiated by unit value also referred to as vertical intra industry trade the north exports more capital intensive goods while more labor intensive goods are produced and traded by the south this kind of specialization creates incentives for governments to support pta s the author tests this model using a new measure of vertical trade specialization and finds strong evidence that such specialization promotes pta formation north south pta s should therefore be seen as part of a broader shift of manufacturing from high to middle income countries

alliances preferential trading arrangements and international trade c oncerns about the stability of the international trading system have become widespread in recent years many observers feel that the relatively liberal system forged after world war ii is being undermined by the proliferation of preferential trading arrangements these concerns have spawned a great deal of empirical research much of which has found that such arrangements exert a substantial effect on trade flows yet these studies have neglected the role political military alliances play in shaping patterns of commerce this omission is important because there is ample reason to expect that alliances guide trade flows and preferential trading arrangements often are comprised of allies as a result extant analyses risk confusing the effects of alliances and preferential trading arrangements on commerce and systematically overstating the effects of the latter in this study we analyze the effects of alliances and preferential trading arrangements on bilateral trade flows both factors are likely to promote trade among members but we argue that the interaction between them is central to explaining patterns of commerce the combination of an alliance which creates political incentives for participants to engage in trade and a commercial institution which liberalizes trade among members is expected to provide a considerable impetus to commerce among parties to both 1

the heart kuznets curve understanding the relations between economic development and cardiac conditions abstract as countries turn wealthier some health indicators such as child mortality seem to have well defined trends however others including cardiovascular conditions do not follow clear linear patterns of change with economic development abnormal blood pressure is a serious health risk factor with consequences for population growth and longevity as well as public and private expenditure in health care and labor productivity this also increases the risk of the population in certain pandemics such as covid 19 to determine the correlation of income and blood pressure we analyzed time series for the mean systolic blood pressure sbp of men s population mmhg and nominal gross domestic product per capita gdppc for 136 countries from 1980 to 2008 using regression and statistical analysis by pearson s correlation r our study finds a trend similar to an inverted u shaped curve or a heart kuznets curve there is a positive correlation increase gdppc increase sbp in low income countries and a negative correlation in high income countries increase gdppc decrease sbp as country income rises people tend to change their diets and habits and have better access to health services and education which affects blood pressure however the latter two may not offset the rise in blood pressure until countries reach a certain income investing early in health education and preventive health care could avoid the sharp increase in blood pressure as countries develop and therefore avoiding the heart kuznets curve and its economic and human impacts

domestic patents and developing countries arguments for their study and data from brazil 1980 1995 abstract this paper presents data from brazilian patent office instituto nacional de propriedade industrial inpi and compares them with data from the united states patent office uspto developing countries have technological activities that are important locally but not significant at international level imitation local learning adaptation of foreign innovations these activities might be patentable only at national level therefore the study of domestic patents of developing countries provides a broader picture than uspto patents this paper compares 8309 inpi patents with 475 uspto patents between 1980 and 1995 domestic patent data show peculiarities in the brazilian case possibly shared with other countries in similar technological level a high share of individual patents b foreign owned firms with important activities c low firm involvement in rd b according to firm size there is a u shaped distribution of patents c evidences of multi technology large firms d a relatively small share of firms have more than one patent in the whole period the contrast between uspto and national patenting statistics shows different rankings according to ownership structure leading firms industrial sectors and international patent classification these differences highlight sources of international competitiveness and point to weaknesses in brazilian innovative activities this paper concludes evaluating the contributions and weaknesses of this database for the evaluation of the brazilian national system of innovation

oportunidades program effect on consumption low participation and methodological issues abstract in this paper we estimate the effect of the mexican conditional cash transfer program oportunidades on consumption and we explore some issues related to participation in the program and to the estimation of treatment effects we discuss the comparability of treatment and control areas provide evidence that the expected transfer may not be sufficiently high to induce many eligible households to participate and find positive effects on consumption

determinants of business cycle comovement a robust analysis abstract this paper investigates the determinants of business cycle comovement between countries our dataset includes over 100 countries both developed and developing we search for variables that are robust in explaining comovement using the approach of leamer amer econom rev 73 1983 31 variables considered are i bilateral trade between countries ii total trade in each country iii sectoral structure iv similarity in export and import baskets v factor endowments and vi gravity variables we find that bilateral trade is robust however two variables that the literature has argued are important for business cycles industrial structure and currency unions are found not to be robust

trade and the variety of democratic institutions students of comparative politics have long acknowledged the importance of such institutional factors as electoral systems parliamentary versus presidential rule and the strength of parties but they have either regarded the institutions as given or have explained them entirely in domestic terms associating proportional representation for example with the intensity of social cleavages in economically advanced democracies however these institutional aspects can be plausibly linked to dependence on trade proportional representation the parliamentary system strong parties and large electoral districts have survival value for developed democracies exposed to trade that the recently revived agitation for proportional representation in the united kingdom has been cast explicitly in terms of economic necessity and dependence on trade adds force to this argument and suggests the need for further historical research on other cases of institutional adaptation and change

veto points veto players and international trade policy much of the literature on foreign economic policy focuses on the preferences of societal groups to explain policy decisions here however the author emphasizes the effects of domestic political i

north south knowledge spillovers and competition convergence versus divergence abstract technology spillovers from high productivity countries in the north allow low productivity countries in the south to improve productivity in high tech sectors relatively easy however the south s share in world goods markets for high tech products is relatively low which reduces opportunities for learning by doing our simple ricardian endogenous growth model shows how the balance between toughness of competition in trade and the strength of north south spillovers determines whether productivity levels diverge partially converge or fully converge in the long run if convergence prevails the north is confronted with declining employment in high tech sectors temporary trade policy measures can turn a diverging economy into a converging one

does foreign direct investment reduce poverty in africa and are there regional differences summary this paper re examines the relationship between foreign direct investment fdi inflows and welfare or poverty reduction in africa using fdi net inflows per capita and the united nations development program s human development index as the principal variables our analyses confirm the positive and strongly significant relationship between fdi net inflows and poverty reduction in africa but find significant differences among african regions we also find that fdi has a greater impact on welfare in poorer countries than it does in wealthier countries for instance while the relationship between fdi and poverty reduction is positive and significant for economic communities in central and east africa it is non significant in northern and southern africa furthermore the relationship was found to be ambiguous in west africa our results are robust to many model specifications

intellectual property rights and the world trade organization retrospect and prospects this paper analyzes the main economic issues of intellectual property rights iprs protection in the context of the world trade organization wto a retrospective view on the establishment of the trips trade related aspects of intellectual property rights agreement a still controversial accomplishment of the uruguay round of trade liberalization is provided the paper reviews the economic rationale for the harmonization of iprs drawing both on economic theory considerations as well as emerging empirical evidence the logic of linking ipr protection and trade in the context of the wto is also re examined some specific attention is devoted to the implications of trips for agricultural and biotechnology innovations the impact that ipr protection can have in promoting growth and development and the relation of iprs with other economic policies is discussed the paper concludes with an analysis of the prospects for more or less iprs related consensus in the current round of wto negotiations

the impact of special interests on preferential tariff concessions by the united states this paper provides empirical evidence on the rela tive impact of the generalized system of preferences gsp adopted in 1975 and the caribbean basin initiative cbi adopted in 1983 on the pattern of u s imports of manufac tured goods from the target areas at the four digit level in 1984 imports from brazil mexico south america the carib bean basin and from all eligible countries are each analyzed we provide evidence that existing preferential agreements have failed to offset the bias in u s protection against competitive exports from developing countries we also explain why one might have predicted such an outcome

can social programs break the vicious cycle between poverty and obesity evidence from urban mexico abstract this article analyzes how social interventions offer a solution to counteract the spread of overweight among the poor focusing on the mexican conditional cash transfers program we assess the average effect of a long run enrollment on adult body mass index and waist to height ratio an original triple difference approach which distinguishes over time participants from nonparticipants and stayers from leavers is implemented we find that the expansion of this program to urban areas has a protective effect on adult bodyweight for staying participants but not an absolute effect moreover the global impact of the program to reduce obesity is halved due to a low rate of participation in mexican cities furthermore we find health risky externalities related to the cash component of the program indeed the amount of cash payments is positively correlated with abdominal fat concentration especially among enrolled women and for short run enrollments to sum up our results bring new insights to the complementary role of both program components cash and conditionalities

capital mobility and the origins of stock markets i illustrate the accepted though hardly researched idea that political institutions play a role in locking in factor specificity across sectors space and borders i use the emergence of modern capital markets in the nineteenth century a process that threatened to redeploy financial resources away from land and traditional sectors to heavy industry as a test case to ascertain the degree of domestic financial capital mobility in nine advanced industrialized countries the main finding is that cross national variations in financial capital mobility holding constant the level of economic development reflect the degree of state centralization

how trade related are intellectual property rights abstract there is little empirical evidence about whether differing international levels of patent protection influence trade flows if a nation strengthens its patent laws it could experience higher or lower imports we specify an empirical model in which deviations of bilateral sectoral imports from anticipated levels are related to income trade barriers and patent laws patent regulations in the importing country are corrected for endogeneity through the use of instrumental variables the results of the final equations indicate that increasing patent protection has a positive impact on bilateral manufacturing imports into both small and large developing economies

the political economy of international trade enduring puzzles and an agenda for inquiry a similar set of concepts has been central to the literatures on the formation of trade policy coalitions and the new economics of institutions the political and economic consequences of the degree to which assets are specific to a particular economic activity in this survey the authors take the necessary first step of summarizing the main findings of these two literatures and then suggest ways in which the issue might be joined in addition to providing a more coherent understanding of the findings of these two literatures and some new directions for them the authors show that many puzzles remain in the field of trade politics puzzles for which there are no appealing answers or where there are answers no strong evidence in support of them this essay then in addition to being a theoretical review of the literature puts forward an agenda for future study of international trade politics

potential impacts of the proposed west african monetary zone on cowpea trade member countries of the economic community of west african states ecowas are expected to form a west african monetary zone wamz by december 2009 whereby members would use a common currency in an attempt to promote regional integration evidence suggests that reduction in transaction cost as a result of a decrease or elimination of nontariff barriers ntbs and real interest rates in response to elimination of exchange rate differentials positively influence trade the objective of this study is to quantify the effects of a a 7 real interest rate on capital and b zero ntbs within ecowas countries on cowpea vigna unguiculata l walp trade to provide a measure of the potential impacts of the wamz on grain trade the study applies a spatial and temporal price equilibrium model formulated in a mixed complementary programming mcp framework and solved using gams path the focus is on the nigerian cowpea grainshed ncg comprising benin burkina faso cote d ivoire ghana mali niger nigeria and togo in ecowas and cameroon chad and gabon in the central african economic and monetary community caemc the results show that if wamz results in reduced real interest rates within ecowas the larger of the two monetary unions consumers in the relatively larger coastal economies and producers in the smaller sahelian economies would benefit while all others lose however net social welfare would increase by 0 19 over the base case of 6 3 billion us bus removing ntbs among countries in the larger trading bloc may alter the pattern of cowpea flows with total trade volume increasing by 3 but inter bloc trade decreasing by about 8 the net total regional social welfare would increase by 0 14 or 15 million us mus benefiting only consumers in importing countries and producers in exporting countries the results emphasize the importance of specialization based on regional comparative advantage but also draw attention to the need to devise ways to ensure acceptable welfare distribution among producers and consumers in line with policy objectives of the individual countries within the proposed wamz finally this article contributes to the literature on the application of spatial and temporal models incorporating both ad valorem tariffs and differential interest rates in developing economies

why is trade reform so popular in latin america a consumption based theory of trade policy preferences despite wavy national economies and a perception among observers that economic globalization is growing increasingly unpopular aggregate support for free trade remains quite high across latin america this finding is robust to the wording of survey questions and has been quite resilient through time even in the face of economic stagnation current theories of trade preferences including the widely applied heckscher ohlin model do not explain this trend instead the author proposes a theory of trade preferences based not on what citizens produce but on what they consume statistical analyses of different surveys including one conducted in fourteen latin american countries demonstrate that a consumption based approach best accounts for trade preferences across individuals and countries moreover the theory provides an explanation for the overall popularity of free trade in latin america citizens recognize and appreciate the lower price increased variety and higher quality of goods that have come in the wake of trade liberalization

asset specificity and the political behavior of firms lobbying for subsidies in norway previous research into endogenous trade policy has described extensively the political incentives of firms with specific assets but no studies have shown directly that firms behave as predicted we adopt insights from transaction costs economics to develop measures of asset specificity and to investigate how variation in these measures affects the political behavior of firms in particular we examine the lobbying choices of norwegian firms in the 1980s given available subsidy funds from norway s oil boom and some government decisions in the 1970s firms with more specific assets faced potentially greater losses from adjusting to new activities in the face of competitive pressures and thus had greater incentives to lobby for subsidies to protect themselves joint contacting of parliament and government on behalf of firm interests by representatives of both management and labor should be particularly likely where firms had specific assets data analysis shows that asset specificity as indicated by r d intensity and job immobility predicts joint contacting independently of plausible alternative explanatory variables like firm size and export orientation

on the adequacy of monetary arrangements in sub saharan africa we examine the economic rationale for monetary union s in sub saharan africa through the use of cluster analysis on a sample of 17 countries the variables used stem from the theory of optimum currency areas and from the fear of floating literature it is found that the existing cfa franc zone cannot be viewed as an optimum currency area cemac and uemoa countries do not belong to the same clusters and a core of the uemoa can be defined on economic grounds the results support the inclusion of the gambia ghana and sierra leone in an extended uemoa arrangement or the creation of a separate monetary union with the core of the uemoa and the gambia rather than the creation of a monetary union around nigeria finally the creation of the west african monetary zone wamz around nigeria is not supported by the data

the intergovernmental network of world trade igo connectedness governance and embeddedness membership in certain intergovernmental organizations igos such as the world trade organization has long been argued to stimulate trade yet evidence linking igos to trade is mixed the authors argue that identifying the influence of igos requires attention not only to the institutions igos enact but also to the network through which they enact them this approach allows them to demonstrate that trade between two countries increases by an average of 58 with every doubling of the strength of igo connection between the countries they also contribute to debates regarding the mechanisms through which structural relationships influence economic behavior by showing that substantial trade benefits occur not only through economic igos but also through igos that were formed for social and cultural purposes and that connections through igos that are organizationally strong have more impact than those through minimalist igos

globalization taxation and burden shifting in latin america most researchers interested in the relationship between global markets and public policy focus on advanced industrial democracies in contrast we examine competing hypotheses as to globalization s effect on governments by expanding the scope of the discussion to include developing nations more specifically we investigate the relationship between international market integration and the evolving burden of taxation on capital as well as the subsequent response of markets to shifts in tax policy in latin america since the late 1970s consistent with our theoretical expectations we find that global market forces are more constraining vis a vis tax policy in latin america than in the world s wealthiest nations despite these market based pressures however national politics continue to influence tax policy in latin america in a manner consistent with findings on advanced industrial democracies as such developing nations continue to have some room to manipulate policy though within the context of a more strictly neoliberal context than their counterparts in advanced industrial democracies

leaving the safety net an analysis of dropouts in an urban conditional cash transfer program summary in poverty reduction programs a significant number of beneficiaries change program status an analysis of oportunidades data from urban mexico shows that beneficiaries that drop out for behavioral and administrative reasons are those who are marginally eligible improving targeting through minimizing errors of inclusion results also indicate that the very poorest recipients particularly in large urban areas and less marginal communities are more likely to drop out increasing the errors of omission households deemed ineligible through a recertification process were those that had obtained basic durables or changed their demographic composition implying that oportunidades retargeting is based on limited information

why hang on to losers divestitures and takeovers we study the divestiture decisions of managers who care about their reputations managers divestiture and investment decisions are publicly observable but managers privately observe signals with respect to the future payoff distribution of investments they have initiated we establish that in equilibrium there is too little divestiture these inefficiencies create the opportunity for wealth enhancing divestiture motivated takeovers a key result is that only managers of targets with middle of the road asset specificity should consider the takeover threat credible these findings suggest that uniqueness of assets is an important determinant of both agency costs and takeover activity our analysis leads to several empirical predictions overwhelming empirical evidence has documented large gains in shareholder wealth that arise from takeovers jarrell brickley and netter 1988 and jensen and ruback 1983 the source of these gains has remained elusive however although takeovers are followed by some infusion of new managerial talent we have not witnessed the kind of profound post takeover restructuring of the productive activities of target firms that would readily justify the documented wealth gains a commonly observed post takeover initiative is divestiture of some of the target s lines of business bhide 1989 and bhagat shleifer and vishny 1990 what is puzzling is that if the gains from takeovers stem from the anticipation of such divestitures then why were these divestitures not undertaken by the target firm s management in the first place the purpose of this paper is to provide a possible answer to this question our focus is on the divergence in incentives between managers and shareholders with respect to divestitures of ongoing projects we show that managers might rationally decide to hang on to projects that should be divested in

contracts intellectual property rights and multinational investment in developing countries abstract the policy debate between multinational firms favoring strong contract law and host country governments who often oppose such protection motivates the paper local agents managers learn the multinational s technology and can defect to start a rival firm contract enforcement including binding the multinational itself makes the multinational better off outcomes for the host country are more complex depending on mode switches induced by enforcement if enforcement induces the multinational to switch from exporting to local production welfare improves if local production was occurring anyway enforcement may result in the loss of rents to local agents and lower welfare

the southern african development community suitable for a monetary union abstract this paper investigates whether a monetary union is desirable among the countries of the southern african development community sadc we employ a generalised auto regressive conditional heteroscedasticity garch model to consider the share of the variation in real exchange rates rers vis a vis south africa that can be explained by the divergence in monetary and fiscal policies the results show that monetary integration would substantially eliminate real exchange rate variation due to different monetary policies for some members the study concludes that a monetary union that embraces all sadc members would amass large costs relative to the benefits and hence would not be desirable

is the proposed east african monetary union an optimal currency area a structural vector autoregression analysis summary this paper empirically assesses the suitability of the east african ea countries for a regional monetary union by testing for symmetry of the underlying structural shocks the results indicate that supply and demand shocks are generally asymmetric which does not lend strong support for forming a currency union in the ea region at the moment however the speed and magnitude of adjustment to shocks is similar across the countries therefore further integration of the economies might lead to more favorable conditions for a monetary union although evidence in favor of linking an ea currency to an external anchor is weak such support seems to favor the euro

invested interests the politics of national economic policies in a world of global finance capital moves more rapidly across national borders now than it has in at least fifty years and perhaps in history this article examines the effects of capital mobility on different groups in national societies and on the politics of economic policymaking it begins by emphasizing that while financial markets are highly integrated within the developed world many investments are still quite specific with respect to firm sector or location it then argues that contemporary levels of international capital mobility have a differential impact on socioeconomic groups over the long run increased capital mobility tends to favor owners of capital over other groups in the shorter run owners and workers in specific sectors in capital exporting countries bear much of the burden of adjusting to increased capital mobility these patterns can be expected to lead to political divisions about whether or not to encourage or increase international capital market integration the article then demonstrates that capital mobility also affects the politics of other economic policies most centrally it shifts debate toward the exchange rate as an intermediate or ultimate policy instrument in this context it tends to pit groups that favor exchange rate stability against groups that are more concerned about national monetary policy autonomy and therefore less concerned about exchange rate stability similarly it tends to drive a wedge between groups that favor an appreciated exchange rate and groups that favor a depreciated one these divisions have important implications for such economic policies as european monetary and currency union the dollar yen exchange rate and international macroeconomic policy coordination