low inflation the behavior of financial markets and institutions this paper provides a broad overview of the potential impact of low inflation deflation on u s financial markets and institutions it is argued that the contemporary experience of japan and the historical experience of the united states in the 1920s and 1930s offer only limited insights into the potential impact of low inflation deflation on today s u s financial system a number of potential implications are discussed including a decline in secondary market trading and a trend towards reintermediation in addition low inflation deflation is likely to have a material effect on bank duration and convexity exposures

panel evidence on the ability of oil returns to predict stock returns in the g7 area abstract most studies on the ability of oil returns to predict stock returns use time series data for multiple countries the data therefore have a panel structure yet oddly enough this structure is never really exploited in the estimation but researchers tend to instead rely on country by country application of existing time series methods this practice is wasteful because it does not explore all available information the present paper can be seen as a reaction to this the purpose is to reevaluate the existing empirical evidence for the g7 countries using state of the art panel data techniques the results show that for the panel as a whole lagged oil price returns has a significantly negative effect on current stock returns the evidence at the individual country level is less strong and varies depending on the extent to which the countries rely on oil import

asymmetric volatility spillovers between crude oil and international financial markets abstract in this paper we examine asymmetric volatility spillovers between oil and international stock markets in a vector autoregression framework using a directed acyclic graph dag technique we provide evidence that bad total volatility spillovers dominate the system and change over time suggesting that a pessimistic mood and uninformed traders who tend to increase volatility dominate in markets positive spillovers of oil markets dominated from 2006 to mid 2009 but reversed after mid 2009 moreover the spillovers from good volatilities in oil markets to bad volatilities in global stock markets were significantly positive during the economic recovery period the recent important economic and political events have influenced asymmetries in volatility spillovers

oil price shocks economic policy uncertainty and industry stock returns in china asymmetric effects with quantile regression abstract this paper investigates the impact of crude oil shocks and china s economic policy uncertainty on stock returns at different locations on the return distributions based on monthly data from 1995 1 to 2016 3 we address this issue by employing the quantile regression technique this approach enables a more detailed investigation in different market circumstances namely bearish normal and bullish markets empirical results indicate that the effects of oil price shocks and economic policy uncertainty are asymmetric and highly related to stock market conditions moreover both the nexus of oil and economic policy uncertainty stock are changed at the onset of a crisis specially rising oil prices have greater negative effects on stock returns when stock markets are bullish extreme higher quantiles before a crisis whereas the effects are significantly positive under different market conditions after the onset of the crisis falling oil prices lower stock returns when stock markets are bullish and normal before the crisis whereas lower stock returns under different market conditions except extreme bullish after the onset of the crisis these findings might be related to the optimistic or pessimistic investor sentiments and investors might become more frightened after the crisis

do banks pass through credit expansions to consumers who want to borrow we examine the ability of policymakers to stimulate household spending during the great recession by reducing banks cost of funds using panel data on 8 5 million credit cards and 743 credit limit regression discontinuities we find that the one year marginal propensity to borrow mpb is declining in credit score falling from 59 for consumers with fico scores below 660 to essentially zero for consumers with fico scores above 740 we use the same credit limit discontinuities combined with a model of lending to estimate banks marginal propensity to lend mpl out of a decrease in their cost of funds for the lowest fico score consumers higher credit limits sharply reduce profits from lending limiting banks incentives to pass through credit expansions to these consumers we conclude that banks mpl is lowest for consumers with the highest mpb and discuss the implications for policies that aim to stimulate the economy through banks

does the deposits channel work under a low interest rate environment abstract according to the deposits channel of monetary policy central banks can influence the deposits holdings and the loan supply by changing the policy rate this paper discusses the generality of this channel and shows that low interest rates may turn this channel off this result contributes to the literature on unintended effects of monetary policy and banks profitability in a low interest rate environment

the currency dimension of the bank lending channel in international monetary transmission abstract we investigate how the use of a currency transmits monetary policy changes in the global banking system we use a newly available rarely accessed dataset on the bilateral cross border lending flows of 27 bis reporting lending banking systems to borrowers in 51 countries broken down by currency denomination usd eur and jpy we have three main findings first we identify a currency dimension of the international bank lending channel monetary changes in a currency significantly affect cross border lending flows in that currency even when neither the lending banking system nor the target country uses that currency as their own second this transmission works mainly through lending to non banks third the currency dimension of the bank lending channel works similarly across the three currencies suggesting that the usd may not be unique in this respect

sovereign stress and smes access to finance evidence from the ecb s safe survey abstract we study the effect of sovereign stress on smes capital structure using restricted access data from the european central bank we find that during the sovereign debt crisis and controlling for borrowers quality firms in stressed countries became more likely to be denied credit to be credit rationed and to face higher loan rates less creditworthy firms were not more likely to become credit constrained suggesting no flight to quality in lending we also find that in order to make up for the decline in bank credit firms in stressed countries began relying considerably more on retained earnings and government subsidies

nonparametric panel data model for crude oil and stock market prices in net oil importing countries abstract this paper introduces an innovative nonparametric panel data approach to model the long run relationship between the monthly oil price index and stock market price indices of ten large net oil importing countries namely the united states japan china south korea india germany france singapore italy and spain in the proposed model we allow the coefficient on the oil price index to be a time varying function which evolves over time in a way that is assumed to be unknown we also allow the common trend function to evolve over time as well as extending the model further to incorporate country specific trend functions we employ a data driven local linear method to estimate these time varying trend and coefficient functions the results show that despite being largely positive there are several downward trends reflecting the aftermath of the iraq war and the recent unprecedented drop in the oil price overall we find that the nonparametric panel data model better captures the way in which the underlying stock oil price relationship has evolved over time in comparison to the point estimates of the parametric counterpart moreover we find that stock market fundamentals play a significant role in determining the oil stock price relationship our findings have important implication for policymakers and financial speculators

assessing the impact of oil returns on emerging stock markets a panel data approach for ten central and eastern european countries abstract this paper uses an international multi factor model in order to investigate the relationship between oil price risk and stock market returns for the emerging capital markets of the central and eastern european countries ceecs a panel data approach is being employed for the period covering 22 october 1999 until 23 august 2007 the oil price beta is found to be negative and statistically significant suggesting that the oil price is indeed an important factor in determining stock returns no statistically significant non linear dependency is found between market risk and emerging market stock returns or between oil price risk and returns observation of conditional models shows positive reaction of emerging stock market returns to upward movements of market returns the reaction of the stock returns to upward and downward movements of the oil market is also negative but more significant when oil prices are low

the directional volatility connectedness between crude oil and equity markets new evidence from implied volatility indexes in this paper we use a set of newly introduced implied volatility indexes to investigate the directional connectedness between oil and equities in eleven major stock exchanges around the globe from 2008 to 2015 the inference on the oil equity implied volatility relationships depends on diebold and yilmaz 2012 2014 2015 who proposed a set of directional measures that enable the dynamic and directional characterization of the relationships among financial variables we find uniform results across the sample countries indicating that the connectedness between oil and equity is established by the bi directional information spillovers between the two markets however we find that the bulk of association is largely dominated by the transmissions from the oil market to equity markets and not the other way around the pattern of transmissions is varying over the sample period however most of the linkages between oil and equities are established from the mid of 2009 to the mid of 2012 which is a period that witnessed the start of global recovery

policy uncertainty lender of last resort and the real economy abstract a reduction in lender of last resort lolr policy uncertainty positively affects bank lending and propagates to investment and employment we exploit a unique policy that reduced uncertainty regarding the availability of future lolr funding for banks as a quasi natural experiment using micro level data on banks firms and loans in portugal we generate cross sectional variation in banks exposure to uncertainty and find that the size of the haircut subsidy the gap between private market and central bank security valuations plays a key role in the propagation of the shock to lending and the real economy

is the negative interest rate policy effective abstract this paper examines the effectiveness of the negative interest rate policy conducted by several central banks to stabilize economic growth and inflation expectations through the signaling channel in doing so we assess survey based expectations data for up to 44 economies from 2002 to 2017 and analyze the impact of the adoption of a negative interest rate policy on expectations made by professionals based on a difference in differences approach our main findings are as follows first we show that the introduction of negative policy rates significantly reduces expectations regarding 3 month money market interest rates and also 10 year government bond yields second we also provide evidence for a significantly positive effect of this unconventional monetary policy tool on gdp growth and inflation expectations this implies that the negative interest rate policy appears to be effective in boosting economic growth and overcoming a deflationary spiral consequently the effect of negative nominal interest rates on real interest rate expectations is also negative

the deposits channel of monetary policy we propose and test a new channel for the transmission of monetary policy we show that when the fed funds rate increases banks widen the interest spreads they charge on deposits and deposits ow out of the banking system we present a model in which imperfect competition among banks gives rise to these relationships an increase in the nominal interest rate increases banks market power inducing them to increase deposit spreads and hence restrict deposit supply households respond to the increase in deposit prices by substituting from deposits into less liquid but higheryielding assets consequently changes in the nominal interest rate aect banks cost of capital and lending using branch level data on the universe of u s banks we show that following an increase in the fed funds rate deposit spreads increase by more and supply falls more in areas with less deposit competition we control for changes in banks lending opportunities by comparing branches of the same bank we control for changes in macroeconomic conditions by showing that deposit spreads widen immediately after a rate change and even if this change is fully anticipated our results imply that monetary policy has a signicant impact on how the nancial system is funded on the quantity of safe and liquid assets it produces and on its provision of loans to the real economy

the cyclicality of sales regular and effective prices business cycle and policy implications author s coibion olivier gorodnichenko yuriy hong gee hee abstract we study the cyclical properties of sales regular price changes and average prices paid by consumers effective prices using data on prices and quantities sold for numerous retailers across many us metropolitan areas inflation in the effective prices paid by consumers declines significantly with higher unemployment while little change occurs in the inflation rate of prices posted by retailers this difference reflects the reallocation of household expenditures across retailers a feature of the data which we document and quantify rather than sales we propose a simple model with household store switching and assess its implications for business cycles and policymakers jel d12 e31 e32 l25 l81

negative interest rates policy and banks risk taking empirical evidence abstract using a panel dataset of 9421 banks from 59 countries over the period 2009 2018 and a difference in differences estimator this paper aims to assess the effects of negative interest rates on banks risk taking we find that banks risk taking has been lower in countries where negative rates have been implemented this effect depends on the characteristics of a country s banking system namely the level of capitalization and size

do smes benefit from unconventional monetary policy and how microevidence from the eurozone we study the impact of the announcement of the european central bank s ecb s outright monetary transactions program on small firms access to finance using a matched firm bank data set from eight eurozone countries we find that following the announcement credit access improved relatively more for firms borrowing from banks with high balance sheet exposures to impaired sovereign debt with such firms less likely to be refused a loan or to be price rationed loan terms also improved as manifested by lengthening of loan maturities unconventional monetary policy has a positive impact on firms investment and profitability while its effect on firm innovation is weaker

real interest rates leverage and bank risk taking do low interest rate environments lead to greater bank risk taking we show that when banks can adjust their capital structures reductions in real interest rates lead to greater leverage and higher risk for any downward sloping loan demand function however if the capital structure is fixed the effect depends on the degree of leverage following a decrease in interest rates well capitalized banks increase risk while highly levered banks may decrease it if loan demand is linear or concave further the capitalization cutoff depends on the degree of bank competition this effect therefore should vary across countries and over time

monetary policy surprises and interest rates evidence from the fed funds futures market abstract this paper estimates the impact of monetary policy actions on bill note and bond yields using data from the futures market for federal funds to separate changes in the target funds rate into anticipated and unanticipated components interest rates response to anticipated target rate changes is small while their response to unanticipated changes is large and highly significant these responses are generally consistent with the expectations hypothesis of the term structure surprise target rate changes have little effect on expectations of future actions however which helps to explain the lack of empirical support for the expectations hypothesis at the short end of the yield curve

separating bric using islamic stocks and crude oil dynamic conditional correlation and volatility spillover analysis abstract this paper explores the dynamic conditional correlation and volatility linkage between islamic indexes and oil for bric countries correlations between these assets increase during the global financial crisis for india and china but not for brazil and russia the volatility error forecast variance of all five indexes comes from spillover but is much lower compared to volatility spillover between conventional indexes and oil hedging performance of islamic indexes are superior in india and china compared to conventional indexes in emerging markets an optimal minimum variance portfolio without reducing expected return can be achieved by investing in lower weights of bric islamic indexes and oil compared to conventional indexes

volatility spillovers for energy prices a diagonal bekk approach abstract we examine the relationship between return and volatility as well as the covolatility spillover for energy foreign currency and stock markets using the diagonal bekk model using daily crude oil natural gas and the coal prices as proxies for energy prices the s p500 index as a proxy for the u s stock market and the eur usd exchange rate as a proxy for the exchange rate we find robust evidence for the volatility spillover effects among the three markets also in the 16 out of 20 pairwise relationships in the five markets there are significant negative covolatility spillover effects in the four pairs involving coal there are positive and significant covolatility spillover effects we conclude that the energy markets and the stock market have stronger covolatility spillovers than others

monetary policy and risk taking abstract we assess the effects of monetary policy on bank risk to verify the existence of a risk taking channel monetary expansions inducing banks to assume more risk we first present var evidence confirming that this channel exists and is particularly significant on the bank funding side then to rationalize this evidence we build a macroeconomic model where banks subject to runs endogenously choose their funding structure deposits vs capital and risk level a monetary expansion increases bank leverage and risk in turn higher bank risk in steady state increases asset price volatility and reduces equilibrium output

life below zero bank lending under negative policy rates we show that negative policy rates affect the supply of bank credit in a novel way banks are reluctant to pass on negative rates to depositors which increases the funding cost of high deposit banks and reduces their net worth relative to low deposit banks as a consequence the introduction of negative policy rates by the european central bank in mid 2014 leads to more risk taking and less lending by euro area banks with a greater reliance on deposit funding our results suggest that negative rates are less accommodative and could pose a risk to financial stability if lending is done by high deposit banks received april 17 2018 editorial decision september 18 2018 by editor philip strahan authors have furnished an internet appendix which is available on the oxford university press web site next to the link to the final published paper online

price dispersion and demand uncertainty evidence from u s scanner data i use the prescott 1975 hotels model to explain variations in price dispersion across items sold by supermarkets in chicago the effect of demand uncertainty on price dispersion is highly significant and quantitatively important my estimates suggest that more than 40 of the cross sectional standard deviation of log prices is due to demand uncertainty i also find that price dispersion measures are negatively correlated with the average price but are not negatively correlated with the revenues from selling the good across stores and weeks and with the number of stores that sell the good temporary sales are modeled as a reaction to unwanted inventories that are accumulated when the realization of demand is low the effect of demand uncertainty on the frequency of temporary sales is also highly significant and quantitatively important items with more demand uncertainty tend to accumulate unwanted inventories more often and tend to have temporary sales more often

loan syndication and credit cycles cyclicality in the supply of business credit has been the focus of a considerable amount of research this cyclicality can stem from shocks to borrowers collateral which affect firms ability to raise capital if agency and information problems are significant ben s bernanke and mark gertler 1989 or it can stem from shocks to bank capital which affect the supply of bank loans if agency and information problems limit the ability of banks to raise additional capital bernanke 1983 both of these channels may have been at work during the financial crisis that started in 2007 ran duchin oguzhan ozbas and berk a sensoy 2010 show that firms with more collateral were better able to withstand the contraction in credit and victoria ivashina and david scharfstein 2010 show that reductions in bank capital had an adverse effect on lending in this paper we examine cyclicality in the supply of credit in the context of modern forms of banking often referred to as the originateto distribute model in particular we are interested in the role of syndicated lending in traditional bank lending the focus of most models of banking banks originate and hold loans on their balance sheets this exposes banks to risk but provides them with strong incentives to screen and monitor borrowers douglas w diamond 1984 over the last 20 years however the development and growth of the syndicated loan market has enabled a bank to originate a loan but retain only a fraction of it on average the originating bank or lead bank retains about a third of each syndicated loan and sells the remaining share to a syndicate of investors which includes banks and institutional investors such as pension funds mutual funds hedge funds and sponsors of structured loan syndication and credit cycles

negative monetary policy rates and systemic banks risk taking evidence from the euro area securities register we show that negative monetary policy rates induce systemic banks to reach for yield for identification we exploit the introduction of negative deposit rates by the european central bank in june 2014 and a novel securities register for the 26 largest euro area banking groups banks with more customer deposits are negatively affected by negative rates as they do not pass negative rates to retail customers in turn investing more in securities especially in those yielding higher returns effects are stronger for less capitalized banks private sector financial and nonfinancial securities and dollar denominated securities affected banks also take higher risk in loans