too big to be efficient the impact of implicit subsidies on estimates of scale economies for banks we examine whether too big to fail tbtf factors affect estimates of scale economies for large banks from a standard model of bank production that does not control for any tbtf factors we find evidence of scale economies for our sample of large banks we then control for tbtf factors by using a measure of the implicit subsidy that emerges from a reduction in tbtf banks funding costs due to investor expectations of government support we do this in two ways first we estimate scale economies from an augmented model of bank production that employs a proxy for the counterfactual price of debt that banks would face in the absence of any tbtf funding cost advantage second we estimate scale economies from a model of bank production that is estimated only for a sample of banks considered unlikely to be tbtf after controlling for tbtf factors using either method we no longer find evidence of scale economies for our sample of large banks these results suggest that estimated scale economies for large banks are affected by tbtf factors

the social costs and benefits of too big to fail banks a bounding exercise while the policy of too big to fail has received wide attention in the literature there is little agreement regarding economies of scale for financial firms we take the stand that systemic risk increases when the larger players in the financial sector have a larger share of output calculations indicate that the cost to the macro economy due to increased systemic risk is always much larger than the potential benefit due to scale economies when distributional and intergenerational issues are considered the potential benefits to economies of scale are unlikely to ever exceed the potential costs due to increased risk of a banking crisis

forecast accuracy of individual analysts in nine industries the purpose of this paper is to investigate whether financial analysts with superior earnings forecasting ability can be distinguished on the basis of ex post forecast accuracy i explore the question by estimating and comparing average accuracy across individuals and by considering whether the observed distribution of analyst forecast accuracies differs from the distribution expected if their relative performances each year were purely random overall i do not find systematic differences in forecast accuracy across individuals financial press coverage suggests there are superior financial analysts for example institutional investor s annual all american research team includes analysts rated by money managers as superior on a variety of criteria including earnings forecasting ability to pick stocks and the quality of written reports clearly financial analyst services other than forecast accuracy are valued by their clients i focus on only one activity earnings forecasting for two reasons first forecast data are available quantitative and can be evaluated against observable earnings outcomes services such as insightful well written research reports are harder to evaluate quantitatively second academic use of analyst forecasts as earnings expectations data in capital markets empir

testing for the long run relationship between nominal interest rates and inflation using cointegration techniques 1989 testing for the long run relationship between nominal interest rates and inflation using cointegration techniques applied economics vol 21 no 4 pp 439 447

integration of discrepant sales forecasts the influence of plausibility inferences based on an evoked range abstract the authors hypothesize that when managers integrate two projections to form a sales estimate they evoke and use a sales range to judge inappropriately the plausibility of each projection this judged plausibility as well as the margin of error based on the market research company s typical accuracy is used to assign weights to each projection five experiments find strong evidence for this process and demonstrate a resulting bias

scale economies and the volume of trade in this paper we split the number of actual years of schooling into five components effective years repeated years skipped years inefficient routing years and dropout years estimation of earnings equations using these explanatory variables produces some interesting empirical and theoretical results the main empirical finding is that the concepts of actual and effective years of schooling that are usually used in the estimation of earnings equations are statistically inferior to our classification both concepts pro

the effectiveness of alternative preference elicitation procedures in predicting choice in a large scale national study the authors evaluated the effectiveness of several preference elicitation techniques for predicting choices the criteria for accuracy included both individual hit

economic cost scale efficiency and competitive viability in banking this paper addresses the issue of the competitive viability of banks of different scales and scopes of operation and the implications that this may have for the evolving structure of the banking and financial services industry unlike previous papers this paper is the first to include both production and opportunity costs in an empirical evaluation of bank efficiency no consistent evidence is reported to suggest that banking organizations can achieve further gains in either production or economic efficiency by expanding beyond 2 billion dollars of total assets thus it is likely that smaller less diversified banking organizations will remain competitively viable copyright 1996 by ohio state university press

intra industry trade in financial services abstract intra industry trade iit has been central to increasing the variety of products available to consumers unlike traditional trade theories the recent trade theories have placed an emphasis on the role of foreign direct investment fdi in generating trade and increasing the volume of iit this study is the first study of intra industry trade in banking services in which the key elements of the new trade theories of iit have been taken into account in measuring the determinants of iit in banking services the empirical results of the determinants of iit in banking services indicate that factor endowments average per capita income fdi in banking economies of scale in the banking sector trade intensity between the us and its partners and market openness make a positive contribution to the volume of iit in banking services furthermore the empirical results indicate that intra trade activities amongst the us multinational corporations reduce the level of iit in banking services for the us

the impact of sukuk on the insolvency risk of conventional and islamic banks abstractthis paper investigates the impact of sukuk market development on bank insolvency risk using a sample comprising 72 islamic banks ibs and 145 conventional banks cbs spanning 15 countrie

controlling for the use of extreme weights in bank efficiency assessments during the financial crisis we propose a method for bank efficiency assessment based on weight restricted dea that limits banks abilities to use extreme weights corresponding to extreme judgements of the risk adjusted prices on funding sources and assets based on a data set comprising the largest european banks during the financial crisis we illustrate the impact of the proposed weight restrictions in two different efficiency models one related to banks funding mix and one related to their asset mix the results show that using a more balanced set of weights tend to reduce the estimated efficiency scores more for those banks which were bailed out during the crisis which confirms the potential bias within standard dea that does not control for extreme weights applied by highly risky banks we discuss the use of the proposed method as a regulatory tool to constrain discretion when complying with regulatory capital benchmarks such as the basel regulatory capital ratios

bank size and macroeconomic shock transmission does the credit channel operate through large or small banks in this paper i use u s call report data to construct a larger panel dataset with bank level observations i find that larger banks lending is considerably more sensitive to the strength of their borrowers and their own balance sheets compared to smaller banks and that the sensitivities to borrower balance sheets are larger in magnitude compared to lender balance sheets when i incorporate various macroeconomic shocks identified by an estimated dsge model into the empirical model i similarly find that the transmission of shocks to the real economy operates mostly through large bank lending and borrower balance sheets

stakeholder rights and economic performance the profitability of nonprofits abstract this paper explores whether ownership matters in a fundamental sense by comparing the performance of stockholder owned firms with the much less analyzed nonprofit firms no stakeholder has residual cash flow rights in nonprofit firms and the control rights are held by customers employees and community citizens accounting for differences in size and risk and comparing only firms in the same industry we find that stockholder owned firms do not outperform nonprofit firms this result is consistent with the notin that the monitoring function of stockholders may be successfully replaced by other mechanisms we find evidence that product market competition may play this role as a substitute monitoring mechanism

on the estimation of returns to scale using variable cost functions abstract this paper compares two methods of estimating returns to scale based on variable cost functions it shows specifically how the methods differ and indicates why it is important to select an appropriate method when drawing inferences about policy

banks buffer capital how important is risk abstract most banks hold a capital to asset ratio well above the required minimum defined by the present capital adequacy regulation basel i using bank level panel data from norway important hypotheses concerning the determination of this buffer capital are analyzed focus is on the importance of i risk ii the buffer as an insurance iii the competition effect iv supervisory discipline and v economic growth a negative or non significant risk effect is found which suggests that introducing a more risk sensitive capital regulation basel ii is likely to affect norwegian banks support is found for the hypothesis that buffer capital serves as an insurance against failure to meet the capital requirements

cointegration results of farm incomes and production costs in us agriculture this study analyses the dynamic relationships between farm incomes and production costs in the us agricultural industry by applying the cointegration technique the results provide evidence of long run equilibrium relationships between cash marketings and production costs however the results do not show such relationships between total revenues which include cash marketings and government payments and production costs chief conclusions of this study are that if market forces alone were to guide farmers decisions one could expert long run equilibrium relationships between the cash receipts and costs however government interventions seem to disrupt this equilibrium the results also suggest that production costs can be forecast using cash marketings which are found to be weakly exogenous the error correction model and vector autoregression model are used to estimate and compare simulation performances of the cointegrated system of cash marketings and production costs

how significant is the alleged unfair advantage enjoyed by state owned banks in germany the european commission argues that the state owned banks in germany enjoy an unfair advantage over the private sector banks in the cost of borrowing funds in the financial markets because of state guarantees that public sector banks are perceived to enjoy this note demonstrates that the blame for the comparatively poor profitability of private sector banks in germany cannot be laid at the door of the relatively cheaper funds that the public sector banks can raise in the wholesale markets copyright 2006 oxford university press

efficiency and risk in taiwan banking sbm super dea estimation in this study we adopt the two data envelopment analysis dea methods including banker charnes cooper bcc and slacks based measure sbm super efficiency to investigate whether a bank s technical efficiency index s results incorporating account risk and not incorporating account risk differ significantly the information is obtained from 43 taiwanese banks for the period 1998 to 2002 we also employ the nonradial and slacks based malmquist total factor productivity tfp index to measure the impact of productivity change on the panel data our empirical results from the dea approach are summarized as follows 1 loan quality factors have an impact on a bank s efficiency in general the bank with a higher degree of problem loans drops down its efficiency by incorporating account risk however the bank with a lower degree of problem loans increases its efficiency by incorporating account risk 2 super efficiency provides a good framework for ranking efficient units 3 based on the nonradial an

openness to trade in manufactures in the oecd abstract how open are the advanced economies to trade with each other in this paper openness is calculated relative to the predictions of the monopolistic competition trade model using data on manufacturing trade and production in the oecd in 1985 the paper finds that 1 japan imports much less than other large oecd countries while the european countries have larger import volumes than does the us 2 japan and the us engage in less intra industry trade than the rest of the oecd and 3 the eu countries are less open to imports from japan and the us than those countries are open to imports from the eu

assessing progress in research on industrial evolution and economic growth a review article this article reviews a new three volume collection of previously published articles on how industry structures change edited by david audretsch and steven klepper central themes in the chosen contributions are summarized and the disproportionate emphasis on relatively new rather than clearly seminal articles is noted a more detailed analysis is undertaken on how the chosen articles illuminate the determinants of incumbent firms survival and growth advantages i e scale economies first mover advantages organizational competence and growth affecting strategies such as preemptive innovation and mergers

testing for stationarity and co integration an application to saudi arabian monetary data 1990 testing for stationarity and co integration an application to saudi arabian monetary data applied economics vol 22 no 11 pp 1577 1590

forecasting with temporal hierarchies this paper introduces the concept of temporal hierarchies for time series forecasting a temporal hierarchy can be constructed for any time series by means of non overlapping temporal aggregation predictions constructed at all aggregation levels are combined with the proposed framework to result in temporally reconciled accurate and robust forecasts the implied combination mitigates modelling uncertainty while the reconciled nature of the forecasts results in a unified prediction that supports aligned decisions at different planning horizons from short term operational up to long term strategic planning the proposed methodology is independent of forecasting models it can embed high level managerial forecasts that incorporate complex and unstructured information with lower level statistical forecasts our results show that forecasting with temporal hierarchies increases accuracy over conventional forecasting particularly under increased modelling uncertainty we discuss organisational implications of the temporally reconciled forecasts using a case study of accident emergency departments

markets and institutions global perspectives abstract the purpose of this paper is to highlight some of the key developments of markets and institutions at the global level over the past few decades by referring to the evolution of institutions from the government led system to a market led system the paper argues that innovation and deregulation in the financial sector led to acceleration of the process of globalisation in which both markets and institutions are becoming increasingly integrated and more efficient the paper highlights the role of trade liberalisation in financial services as a way of increasing efficiency and better use of national resources the paper also highlights the role of consolidation of financial institutions as one of the ingredients of the new developments of markets and institutions the paper also provides brief highlights of six other papers in this special issue that analyse and discuss some of the global aspects of markets and institutions

deposit insurance regulation and moral hazard in the thrift industry evidence from the 1930 s this paper compares risk taking of insured and uninsured thrifts operating under strict and less strict regulatory regimes during the 1930 s analysis of balance sheet data indicates that while newly insured thrifts undertook less risk than their uninsured counterparts possibly because of screening by deposit insurance authorities moral hazard emerged gradually insured institutions operating under relatively permissive regulatory regimes were more prone to undertake risky lending activities than their more tightly regulated counterparts possibly because of screening by deposit insurance authorities moral hazard emerged gradually insured institutions operating under relatively premissive regulatory regimes were more prone to undertake risky lending activities than their more tightly regulated counterparts given the current system of deposit insurance the results suggest that effective regulation and supervision will play a key role in maintaining thrift stability in the 1990s copyright 1992 by american economic association

are scale economies in banking elusive or illusive evidence obtained by incorporating capital structure and risk taking into models of bank production abstract this paper explores how to incorporate banks capital structure and risk taking into models of production in doing so the paper bridges the gulf between 1 the banking literature that studies moral hazard effects of bank regulation without considering the underlying microeconomics of production and 2 the literature that uses dual profit and cost functions to study the microeconomics of bank production without explicitly considering how banks production decisions influence their riskiness various production models that differ in how they account for capital structure and in the objectives they impute to bank managers cost minimization versus value maximization are estimated using u s data on highest level bank holding companies modeling the bank s objective as value maximization conveniently incorporates both market priced risk and expected cash flow into managers ranking and choice of production plans estimated scale economies are found to depend critically on how banks capital structure and risk taking are modeled in particular when equity capital in addition to debt is included in the production model and cost is computed from the value maximizing expansion path rather than the cost minimizing path banks are found to have large scale economies that increase with size moreover better diversification is associated with larger scale economies while increased risk taking and inefficient risk taking are associated with smaller scale economies

aggregating subjective forecasts some empirical results the impact on forecast accuracy of aggregating the subjective forecasts of up to 13 individuals was examined for five forecast weighting methods equal weighting two ex post methods that took advantage of prior information about the individuals relative accuracy and two ex ante methods based on objective and subjective assessments of relative accuracy the individuals were executives managers and sales personnel employed by time inc and the variable forecasted was the number of advertising pages sold annually by time magazine over a 14 year period the results show that both the average forecast error and the variance of the error decrease as additional individuals forecasts are included in the aggregate only two to five individuals forecasts must be included to achieve much of the total improvement available from combining all 13 forecasts three of the differential weighting methods produced more accurate forecasts than equal weighting but the magnitude of the improvement was small implications for realistic forecasting situations are discussed as are conditions under which the use of aggregates seems attractive

automated earnings forecasts beat analysts or combine and conquer prior studies attribute analysts forecast superiority over time series forecasting models to their access to a large set of firm industry and macroeconomic information an information advantage which they use to update their forecasts on a daily weekly or monthly basis a timing advantage this study leverages recently developed mixed data sampling midas regression methods to synthesize a broad spectrum of high frequency data to construct forecasts of firm level earnings we compare the accuracy of these forecasts to those of analysts at short horizons of one quarter or less we find that our midas forecasts are more accurate and have forecast errors that are smaller than analysts when forecast dispersion is high and when the firm size is smaller in addition we find that combining our midas forecasts with analysts forecasts systematically outperforms analysts alone which indicates that our midas models provide information orthogonal to analysts our results provide preliminary support for th

do large banks have lower costs new estimates of returns to scale for u s banks this paper presents new fully nonparametric estimates of ray scale and expansion path scale economies for u s banks based on a model of bank costs unlike prior studies that use models with restrictive parametric assumptions or limited samples our methodology uses local polynomial estimators and data on all u s banks over the period 1984 2006 our estimates indicate that as recently as 2006 most u s banks faced increasing returns to scale suggesting that scale economies are a plausible but not necessarily only reason for the growth in average bank size and that the tendency toward increasing scale is likely to continue unless checked by government intervention

averages of forecasts some empirical results an alternative to using a single forecasting method is to average the forecasts obtained from several methods in this paper we investigate empirically the impact of the number and choice of forecasting methods on the accuracy of simple averages it is concluded that the forecasting accuracy improves and that the variability of accuracy among different combinations decreases as the number of methods in the average increases thus combining forecasts seems to be a reasonable practical alternative when as is often the case a true model of the data generating process or a single best forecasting method cannot be or is not for whatever reasons identified

probabilistic decision model of wind power investment and influence of green power market this paper presents results from a model of a representative wind power investor s decision making process using a monte carlo simulation of a project financial analysis data in the form of probability distribution functions pdfs for key input variables were collected from interviews with investors and other professionals active in the u s wind power industry using a formal expert elicitation protocol this study presents the first quantitative estimates of the effect of the u s voluntary renewable energy certificate rec market on renewable energy generation the results indicate that the investment decisions of wind power project developers in the united states are unlikely to have been altered by the voluntary rec market the problem with the current voluntary rec market is that it does not offer developers a reliable risk adjusted revenue stream consequently the claims by u s green power retailers and promoters that voluntary market recs result in additional wind power projects lack credibility even dramatic increases in voluntary market rec prices in the absence of long term contracts were found to have only a small effect on investor behavior

creative destruction and human resources discussion about demography of firms and industries is asking not only for the entity of organizations but also for processes of entry and exit changes and shifts in the overall structure of enterprises are very often regarded as reflections of market forces which are leaded by company strategies and their management elites too less attention is paid to some overall trends in which deaths and births of firms are embedded the paper tries to discuss some developments in the structure of the labour force which are regarded as an autonomous interpretation scheme for new occupations markets and firms the secular sectoral transformation towards the service sector is connected to the course of productivity which provides in itself the breeding ground for new organizations analysing long term social and economic changes is one of the necessary perspectives to understand recent trends in economy and society and to arrive at a better understanding of future developments the argument in the paper is a conceptual one which is highlighted by empirical observations evolutionary processes of creative destruction must be understood best by an integrated interdisciplinary approach including different aspects of market formations and socioeconomic dimensions such as labour market trends social stratification issues and life style elements

multinationals multi plant economies and the gains from trade a general equilibrium model of a multinational enterprise based on economies of multi plant operation is developed these economies are modelled as arising from the existence of a joint input whose productivity in each production facility is independent of the number of facilities maintained by a firm the multinational thus offers the world increased technical efficiency by eliminating the duplication of the joint input that would occur with independent national firms since this technical efficiency may come at the expense of increased market power the full determinants of home country host country and world welfare are considered

true protection and the real exchange rate in a capital rich developing country some evidence for saudi arabia this paper investigates how alternative measures of the real exchange rate respond to trade policy and terms of trade changes it employs a modelling framework which endogenises the price of non tradeable goods and applies the model to price and real exchange rate data for saudi arabia for the period 1982 92 the results show that the popular propositions about the response of the real exchange rate to terms of trade or trade policy changes do not necessary hold this is a consequence of the measure of the real exchange rate utilized rather than a product of saudi arabia s capital richness

commercial policy and intra industry trade abstract this paper constructs a model of intra industry trade within a multi product industry whose output range is limited to that obtainable from a particular type of capital intra industry trade is a natural outcome in this structure without requiring increasing returns to scale or imperfectly competitive markets and with its pattern determined along traditional relative factor abundance lines the volume of this trade will vary inversely with the level of trade restrictions as observed empirically other policies are then considered for their influence on the range rather than the level of domestic production since the former is the more likely policy objective under these circumstances

consensus forests of corporate earnings analysts forecasts and time series methods an alternative to using a single forecasting method is to average the forecasts made by various methods in this paper we examine empirically combinations of financial analysts forecasts and forecasts from time series methods in order to predict corporate earnings per share we conclude that on average the primary forecasting advantages of analysts over time series methods based on annual data appear to occur over short forecast horizons less than a year neither analysts nor other time series methods substantially outperform a random walk prediction of no change when forecasts are made near the beginning of the fiscal year for predictions in the first half of the fiscal year there is evidence of forecasting benefits from combining time series and analysts forecasts especially if there are few analysts forecasts

output allocative and technical efficiency of banks abstract in this paper we calculate output allocative and technical efficiency for a sample of small banks operating in 1982 we do so by estimating a shephard type output distance function as a deterministic frontier in general we find that the banks in our sample are output inefficient

the performance of universal banks evidence from switzerland abstract this paper examines the performance of swiss banks from 1996 to 1999 using a broad definition of bank output we find evidence of large relative cost and profit inefficiencies in swiss banks a more narrow definition that focuses on only traditional activities leads to efficiency estimates that are even lower we also find evidence of economies of scale for small and mid size banks but little evidence that significant scale economies remain for the very largest banks finally evidence on scope economies is weak for the largest banks that are involved in a wide variety of financial activities taken together these results suggest few obvious benefits from the trend toward larger universal banks in switzerland

the role of demandable debt in structuring optimal banking arrangements demandable debt finance by banks warrants explanation because it entails costs of bank suspension liquidation and idle reserve holdings an explanation is developed in which demandable debt provides incentive compatible intermediation where the banker has comparative advantage in allocating investment funds but may act against the interests of uninformed depositors demandable debt attracts funds by giving depositors an option to force liquidation its usefulness in transacting follows from information sharing between monitors and nonmonitors copyright 1991 by american economic association

new firm survival new results using a hazard function a limitation of audretsch s 1991 study of new firm survival was the level of aggregation to industries this precluded linking establishment specific characteristics such as organizational structure and size to post entry performance the purpose of this paper is to relate the post entry performance of individual establishments not only to their technological and market structure environments but also to establishment specific characteristics we do this by estimating a hazard duration function for more than 12 000 individual establishments in u s manufacturing started in 1976 by tracking their subsequent performance over a ten year period we conclude that establishment specific characteristics which audretsch was not able to capture in his earlier study play an important role in shaping the exposure to risk confronting new establishments copyright 1995 by mit press

bank capitalization and cost evidence of scale economies in risk management and signaling we amend the standard cost model to account for the role of financial capital in banking the cost function is conditioned on the level of capital but we model the demand for financial capital so that it can serve as a cushion against insolvency for potentially risk averse managers and as a signal of risk for less informed outsiders scale economies are then computed without assuming that the bank chooses a level of capitalization that minimizes cost we find evidence of substantial scale economies and that bank managers are risk averse and use the level of financial capital to signal the level of risk

economies of scale in banking indeterminacy and monetary policy this paper investigates economies of scale es in financial intermediation as a source of equilibrium indeterminacy consumption in the model can be purchased with currency and deposits and es in intermediation implies that deposit costs are decreasing in aggregate deposits the results suggest that indeterminacy does not depend on a large degree of es nor a large intermediation sector but on monetary policy and the determination of nominal interest rates monetary policies not targeting nominal rates allow for indeterminacy to arise for any degree of es while policies targeting nominal rates eliminates indeterminacy for all degrees of es

internet based virtual stock markets for business forecasting the application of internet based virtual stock markets vsms is an additional approach that can be used to predict short and medium term market developments the basic concept involves bringing a group of participants together via the internet and allowing them to trade shares of virtual stocks these stocks represent a bet on the outcome of future market situations and their value depends on the realization of these market situations in this process a vsm elicits and aggregates the assessments of its participants concerning future market developments the aim of this article is to evaluate the potential use and the different design possibilities as well as the forecast accuracy and performance of vsms compared to expert predictions for their application to business forecasting after introducing the basic idea of using vsms for business forecasting we discuss the different design possibilities for such vsms in three real world applications we analyze the feasibility and forecast accuracy of vsms compare the performance of vsms to expert predictions and propose a new validity test for vsm forecasts finally we draw conclusions and provide suggestions for future research

deregulation and bank financial policy the standard view that banks can value maximize by exploiting non risk rated deposit insurance ignores the potential loss of a valuable bank charter due to insolvency recognition of this effect changes the bank s optimal financial policy and can induce extreme risk averting as well as risk taking behavior however as the value of the bank charter falls the risk taking strategy is more apt to dominate therefore current deregulation of the banking industry by easing entry and devaluing charters holds the potential for increases in the incidence of insolvency unless offsetting policies are instituted

de novo bank exit newly chartered banks provide an additional credit source for small businesses but the staying power of new banks can be weak a multi state exit model is estimated for u s commercial banks chartered between 1980 and 1985 and for a benchmark sample of small established banks the determinants of failure are similar for both samples but new bank failure is more sensitive to adverse environmental conditions the timing of new bank exit by failure follows a life cycle pattern but the timing of new bank exit by acquisition does not there is mixed evidence on the efficacy of regulations aimed at reducing new bank fragility

intra industry trade and strategic interaction theory and evidence abstract we conduct a theory based empirical study of intraindustry trade in homogeneous products we derive an oligopolistic model of intra industry trade which is an extension of the segmented market model of trade initially proposed by brander j a 1981 intra industry trade in identical commodities journal of international economics 11 1 14 the empirical implementations of the model are investigated in the context of the petrochemical industry our analysis employs a unique data set containing detailed product and location specific data on the petrochemical industries in germany and the united states allowing for different empirical specifications we find that cross product variations in bilateral intra industry trade of petrochemicals are well explained by the variables suggested by the theoretical model

measuring competition using the boone relative profit difference indicator this paper suggests a method for implementing the theoretical relative profit difference test for intensity of competition due to boone 2008 an empirical illustration is given for banking systems in emerging economies

the risk of financial intermediaries this paper reconsiders the formal estimation of bank risk using the variability of the profit function in our model point estimates of the variability of profits are derived from a model where this variability is endogenous to other bank characteristics such as capital and liquidity we estimate the new model on the entire panel of us banks spanning the period 1985q1 2012q4 the findings show that bank risk was fairly stable up to 2001 and accelerated quickly thereafter up to 2007 we also establish that the risk of the relatively large banks and banks that failed in the subprime crisis is higher than the industry s average thus we provide a new leading indicator which is able to forecast future solvency problems of banks

competition in fragmented markets new evidence from the german banking industry in the light of the subprime crisis abstract of all of the eu member states germany has the largest banking market however not all german banking institutions necessarily face fierce competition because the industry is highly fragmented strict separation of the three existing banking pillars may impede competition with negative effects on financial stability we assess the competitive stances of 1 888 universal banks from 2001 to 2009 by using the panzar rosse revenue test we find evidence that measuring competition at an average country level does not necessarily generate valid evaluations of fragmented markets in addition we find no clear indication that either the particular objectives of cooperative and savings banks or the legal protection of these institutions impedes competition or discriminates against private banks therefore as long as the relationship between competition and financial stability is dubious the overall effect and the social costs or benefits of political measures that influence the structure of the german banking market are at least questionable

intra industry specialization in a multi country and multi industry framework the paper tests alternative hypotheses as to the factors determining the extent of intra industry trade defined as the share of this trade in total trade in a multi country and multi industry framework the empirical results show that the extent of intra industry trade in a particular industry between any two countries depends on the characteristics of the industry and the countries concerned the explanatory power of the regressions for the entire group of countries exporting manufactured goods as well as for trade among the developed countries is relatively high and practically all the hypotheses concerning the impact of industry trade are supported by the empirical results lower coefficients of determination have been obtained for trade between developed and developing countries and for trade among developing countries but the estimates generally support the hypotheses put forward in the paper in these cases also

the demise of community banks local economic shocks are not to blame the number of us community banks is falling rapidly is this reduction being driven in part by banks desire to geographically diversify to reduce their vulnerability to local economic shocks a comparison of the performance of banks in counties that suffered economic shocks in the 1990s with similar banks in counties that did not suffer economic shocks shows that banks withstand local economic shocks quite well this result suggests that the geographic concentration risk that community banks must bear to focus on relationship lending is small and is not an important factor contributing to the decline of community banks

incorporating risk input into the analysis of bank productivity application to the taiwanese banking industry abstract this study reappraises banks productivity by using 42 taiwanese banks during 1999 2007 as observations it introduces an input oriented generalized metafrontier malmquist productivity index i gmmpi while considering the latent effect of risk taking behavior in the analytic framework we learn that public and private banks should face separate short term technological frontiers while the econometric model considering risk input can portray banks operating frontiers better moreover neglecting the influence of risk input would bring about distortions of efficiency technology and tfp dynamic estimations for banks meanwhile the degree of scale economies would also be overestimated the paper concludes that neglecting the risk taking essence in bank performance evaluation is equal to allowing banks to barter risk bearing as the term for further output growth consequently the potential cost is that banks may excessively aggrandize their scales of business implying the possibility of another financial crisis

unstable weights in the combination of forecasts the weights used in the combination of forecasts are shown to be very unstable they are generally so unstable that the combined forecasts often do not perform better than some of the individual forecasts or a simple average of the forecasts in practice the instability is found from a series of monte carlo experiments as well as from the nominal gnp forecasts from four well known macro forecasters the monte carlo experiments also show that when the underlying models are known a composite forecast from a composite model is generally more accurate than the combination of the individual forecasts a simple average is shown to be the best technique to use in practice because the weights in the combination are so unstable

the identification of technology regimes in banking implications for the market power fragility nexus neglecting the existence of different technologies in banking can contaminate efficiency market power and other performance measures by simultaneously estimating i technology regimes conditional on exogenous factors ii efficiency conditional on risk management and iii lerner indices of german banks we identify three distinct technology regimes public retail small specialized and universal relationship system estimation at the regional level reveals that greater bank market power increases bank profitability but also fosters corporate defaults corporate defaults in turn lead to higher probabilities of bank distress which supports the market power fragility hypothesis c 2009 elsevier b v all rights reserved

the value of combining forecasts in inventory management a case study in banking managing inventories in the face of uncertain stochastic demand requires an investment in safety stocks these are related to the accuracy in forecasting future demands and the noise in the demand generation process reducing the demand forecasting error can free up capital and space and reduce the operating costs of managing the inventories a leading bank in hong kong consumes more than three hundred kinds of printed forms for its daily operations a major problem of its inventory control system for the forms management is to forecast the monthly demand of these forms in this study the idea of combining forecasts is introduced and its practical application is addressed the individual forecasts come from well established time series models and the weights for combination are estimated with quadratic programming the combined forecast is found to perform better than any of the individual forecasts

trade policy issues and empirical analysis interest in u s trade policy has been stimulated in recent years by the massive american trade deficit by the belief that intervention by foreign governments in international markets has given other countries a competitive edge over the united states and by concern about the increase in protectionism among industrial countries in turn major analytical developments in international economics have revolutionized trade theory broadening its scope both by introducing in a more formal manner such concepts as imperfect competition increasing returns product differentiation and learning effects and by including the study of political and economic factors that shape trade policy decisions this collection of papers the result of a conference held by the nber applies these new trade theories to existing world cases and also presents complementary empirical studies that are grounded in more traditional trade theories the volume is divided into four parts the papers in part 1 consider the problem of imperfect competition empirically assessing the economic effect of various trade policies introduced in industries in which the new trade theory seems to apply those in part 2 isolate the effects of protection from the influences of the many economic changes that accompany actual periods of protection and also examine how the effects from exogenous changes in economic conditions vary with the form of protection part 3 provides new empirical evidence on the effect of foreign production by a country s firms on the home country s exports finally in part 4 two key bilateral issues are analyzed recent u s japanese trade tensions and the incident involving the threat of the imposition of countervailing duties by the united states on canadian softwood lumber

combining expert judgment on the performance of trimmed mean vote aggregation procedures in the presence of strategic voting abstract analytic group decision techniques for selecting a subset of alternatives range between multicriteria decision analysis techniques such as multiattribute utility theory and the analytic hierarchy process to voting techniques where each member of the decision group submits a ranking of the alternatives and these individual rankings are then aggregated into an overall ranking the obvious advantage of voting is that it bypasses the rather intensive data generation requirements of multicriteria techniques in this paper we compare the performance of trimmed mean rank order aggregation procedures in the case where a subset of the individuals in the group charged with the decision vote strategically we employ a monte carlo simulation experiment on a specific decision instance and find that trimmed mean aggregation compares favorably with other procedures

does risk aversion affect bank output loss the case of the eurozone abstract we propose a new model to infer the evolution of bank specific output losses due to the uncertainty in bank output prices losses are based on bank risk aversion with micro foundations tethered to the uncertainty regarding prices our model allows us to measure time varying bank specific output losses and risk aversion while taking into account all bank cross sectional heterogeneity we employ a panel data set to estimate the input and output elasticities with both parametric and non parametric techniques we are the first to document that increasing risk aversion among eurozone banks during the financial crisis resulted in sizable output losses although subdued thereafter losses have been resurging in recent years both conventional and unconventional monetary policy responses by the european central bank ecb mitigated uncertainty in bank output prices though unequally so across countries certain measures of unconventional monetary policy may have even enhanced bank risk aversion and thereby output losses but mainly so for large countries

testing for expense preference behavior mutual versus stock savings and loans this article investigates expense preference behavior in the savings and loan industry previous studies used an intercept test and in general concluded that managers of mutual s ls exhibit expense preference behavior i derive the necessary and sufficient conditions on cost functions for the intercept test to be valid these restrictions are rejected for the savings and loan industry stock and mutual s ls have different cost structures and both have non cobb douglas production technologies i derive a new more general test for expense preference behavior that does not require the restrictive assumptions of the intercept test the results of this test do not support earlier conclusions of managerial expense preferences

pre recession efficiencies and input allocation decisions of agricultural and critically insolvent banks abstractthe late 2000s economic recession is considered the longest economic downturn since the 1930s great depression declining real estate values ignited an increase in loan defaults and mortgage foreclosures that led to a surge of bank failures at a rate not experienced by the u s banking industry since the 1980s a total of 509 bank failures were recorded by the fdic from january 2007 december 2014 with nearly 60 of these failures occurring in 2009 and 2010 in contrast there were only 24 bank failures in the u s during the 7 year period prior to 2007 this study analyzed certain components of operating decisions made by banks that either survived or became critically insolvent during the late 2000s financial crisis using an input distance stochastic frontier function to estimate the technical efficiency te and allocative efficiency ae between agricultural banks and non agricultural banks this efficiency analysis was applied to a 7 year pre recession period and is designed to final out any