is protectionism on the rise assessing national trade policies during the crisis of 2008 to understand the role of trade policies in the crisis of 2008 this paper constructs the overall trade restrictiveness indices for a wide range of countries using their tariff schedules in 2008 and 2009 the index summarizes the trade policy stance of a country taking into account the share of each good in trade as well as its corresponding import demand elasticity results show that there is no widespread increase in protectionism via tariff policies since the global financial crisis has unfolded while many countries have adjusted tariffs upward on selected products only a handful of countries such as malawi russia argentina turkey and china focus on products that have significant impacts on trade flows the united states and the european union by contrast rely mainly on anti dumping duties to shield domestic industries overall while the rise in tariffs and anti dumping duties in these countries may have jointly caused global trade to drop by as much as us 43 billion during the crisis period it explains less than 2 percent of the collapse in world trade

economic determinants of free trade agreements abstract the purpose of this study is to provide the first systematic empirical analysis of the economic determinants of the formation of free trade agreements ftas and of the likelihood of ftas between pairs of countries using a qualitative choice model we develop this econometric model based upon a general equilibrium model of world trade with two factors of production two monopolistically competitive product markets and explicit intercontinental and intracontinental transportation costs among multiple countries on multiple continents the empirical model correctly predicts based solely upon economic characteristics 85 of the 286 ftas existing in 1996 among 1431 pairs of countries and 97 of the remaining 1145 pairs with no ftas

free trade agreements in the americas are the trade effects larger than anticipated this paper argues that the competitive liberalisation of national governments of the past several decades reflects national governments expectations of larger trade impacts from regional economic integration agreements eias than typical ex ante economic models have suggested moreover we show that previous typically cross section ex post empirical evaluations of the effects of eias on trade have seriously over or underestimated the effects partly due to ignoring the endogenous self selection bias of country pairs into eias accounting for this bias we find that economic integration agreements in the americas have had much larger impacts on trade over the period 1960 2000 than previously found and the ex post estimates are less fragile than those in earlier cross section analyses the results shed further light on understanding the causes and consequences of the growth of regionalism in the world

the new institutional economics this outstanding book presents new original contributions from some of the world s leading economists including ronald coase douglass c north masahiko aoki oliver e williamson and harold demsetz it demonstrates the extent and depth of the new institutional economics research programme which is having a worldwide impact on the economics profession

the not so generalized effects of the generalized system of preferences we use an empirical gravity equation approach to study how nonreciprocal trade preferences nrtps enacted mainly through the generalized system of preferences affect the exports of the beneficiary nations in line with existing studies the average trade effect stemming from nonreciprocal preferences is highly unstable across specifications however once we allow for heterogeneous effects results become robust and economically important specifically nrtps have a strong effect on the exports of beneficiaries when they are members of the world trade organization and are very poor not so poor beneficiaries also expand foreign sales but only if they are not wto members for all others the average export effects of nrtps are mute

estimating the effects of free trade agreements on international trade flows using matching econometrics abstract this paper provides the first cross section estimates of long run treatment effects of free trade agreements on members bilateral international trade flows using nonparametric matching econometrics our nonparametric cross section estimates of ex post long run treatment effects are much more stable across years and have more economically plausible values than corresponding ols cross section estimates from typical gravity equations we provide plausible estimates of the long run effects of membership in the original european economic community eec and the central american common market cacm between 1960 and 2000 and the estimates confirm anecdotal reports of these agreements effectiveness

political economy of public policies insights from distortions to agricultural and food markets the agricultural and food sector is an ideal case for investigating the political economy of public policies many of the policy developments in this sector since the 1950s have been sudden and transformational while others have been gradual but persistent this paper reviews and synthesizes the literature on trends and fluctuations in market distortions and the political economy explanations that have been advanced based on a rich global data set covering a half century of evidence on commodities countries and policy instruments the paper identifies hypotheses that have been explored in the literature on the extent of market distortions and the conditions under which reform may be feasible

on the relationship between the breadth of preferential trading arrangements and trade flows this paper uses matching econometrics to extend the literature investigating the impact of preferential trading arrangements ptas on goods trade flows heterogeneity in ptas is accounted for through a provision count index derived from data provided in a recent world bank study pta formation now involves two separate sequential decisions first whether two trading partners should form a pta and second if they do how broad that agreement should be we find our explanatory variables are significant for both decisions but often have opposing effects on each using matched pta and non pta groups of country pairs we estimate a dose response function which indicates that arrangements with few provisions and arrangements with many provisions do not appear to have a significant impact on goods trade flows between their members ptas in an intermediate range are shown to have a significant positive effect we then relate these outcomes to the actual content of the ptas using the concept of provision intensity

market access conditions and sub saharan africa s exports diversification summary despite some progress in the last decade sub saharan africa s participation in the global economy remains generally limited and poorly diversified among the various reasons behind the lack of competitiveness of sub saharan africa exports this paper analyzes whether changes in market access conditions affect export diversification the findings of this paper indicate that market access conditions remain important and that the presence of trade relationships depends not only on favorable market access conditions but also on how these compare relative to foreign competitors these results imply that freer trade within sub saharan african countries could provide significant incentive to intra regional trade

weather variations and international trade in this paper i investigate the effect of weather variations in the exporter and importer countries separately as well as a the difference between weather variations in both countries on bilateral trade flows the analysis is done at the country sectoral and product levels worldwide and over the 1992 2014 period i find a negative effect of temperature variations in the exporter country and in the difference between exporter and importer countries on bilateral trade at the country level at the product level both negative and positive effects arise but the negative effect of temperature dominates the temperature effects are on the agricultural and manufacturing sectors especially in the textile and metals sectors i show that possible channels are the impact of temperature on output and labour productivity the negative impacts are larger in exporter countries that are closer to the equator that have lower quality of institutions and that export to more remote countries if countries are able to adapt to climate change the long term effects of temperature variations should be lower than the contemporaneous effect nevertheless my results on the long term effects analysis do not support this hypothesis suggesting no or very low adaptation moreover the negative effect of temperature is persistent and cumulative through several years after the temperature shock concerning precipitation variation effects they are found mainly at the product level with the positive effect dominating for the affected products

heterogeneous trade agreements wto membership and international trade an analysis using matching econometrics this article explores the heterogeneous effects of trade agreements tas and world trade organization wto membership on the volume of international trade we extend baier and bergstrand s 2009a application of matching econometrics by distinguishing between different types of tas and wto participation and account for the endogenous nature of trade policy for a panel data set covering 1960 2005 and 187 countries we find that the treatment effect on international trade systematically varies with the type of ta and wto membership

multiple faces of preferential market access their causes and consequences this paper suggests an integrated approach to study selection into and consequences of five modes of preferential economic integration agreements peias goods trade agreements gtas services trade agreements stas double taxation treaties dtts bilateral investment treaties bits and currency unions as well as currency pegs cuas a detailed descriptive analysis reveals typical integration patterns with dtts and bits often being first steps towards deeper integration we consider the effects of peias on bilateral goods trade services trade and fdi and provide conclusive evidence that single and combined peias are associated with positive effects not only on single outcome but typically on all outcomes investment liberalization through dtts and bits seems to be particularly beneficial since concluding them alone or in any combination with other agreements encourages goods trade even more than the liberalization of goods trade per se peter egger and georg wamser

the curse of being landlocked institutions rather than trade this article revisits the long term economic effects of being landlocked the conventional wisdom which also prevails in policy circles is that landlockedness hurts development by reducing trade gravity models of bilateral trade seem to confirm this view however there is no evidence in cross country data of a systematic relationship between landlockedness and country s trade to gdp ratio drawing on this stylised fact the paper explores the possibility that landlockedness might affect gdp independently from its effect on trade theoretical considerations suggest that institutional quality could be a relevant transmission mechanism the estimation of a system of three equations confirms that landlockedness has a negative effect on gdp and that this negative effect is transmitted through institutions rather than trade moreover after controlling for the transmission via institutions and trade landlockedness has a further negative effect on gdp these findings call for a review of the policy approach to the development of landlocked countries

is the wto passe the wto has delivered policy outcomes that are very different from those likely to emerge out of the recent wave of preferential trade agreements ptas should economists see this as an efficient institutional hand off where the wto has carried trade liberalization as far as it can manage and is now passing the baton to ptas to finish the job this paper surveys a growing economics literature on international trade agreements and argues on this basis that the wto is not passe rather and subject to some caveats this survey of research to date suggests that the wto warrants strong support while a more cautious view of ptas seems appropriate

coase s choice of methodology this paper examines the nature of ronald h coase s realism by considering the relationship between theories and facts in his methodology i focus especially on coase s criticisms of friedman s 1953 essay as set out in a lecture published in 1982 it is shown that in developing his argument coase applies his institutional economics to address the question of how economists operating within a regulated market for ideas choose their theories he calls for realism in methodology and carries out an empirical study of economists choices he explores how the profession is regulated and highlights how discourse impacts on the functioning of science a key question addressed within this paper is how can coase maintain a sociological and rhetorical view of science without falling into relativism i identify the different motives for theory choice that coase considers and show that his answer is both institutional and epistemic this helps to clarify the status of the empirical basis in coase s methodology and sheds new light on the nature of his realism i conclude by carrying out a reflexive analysis of coase s text as a text that attempts to justify the methodology on which it is itself based

the voluntary provision of a pure public good the case of reduced cfc emissions and the montreal protocol abstract this paper applies the theory of the voluntary provision of a pure public good to the behavior of nations to curb chlorofluorocarbon cfc emissions during the late 1980s by devising an empirical test we determine that these cutbacks in emissions are consistent with nash behavior when taste parameters are controlled the relationship between emission cutbacks and national income is nearly linear as implied by the theory if the sample is purged of potential outliers then the linear relationship results a significant taste parameter is the extent of political and civil freedoms while a marginally significant parameter is geophysical position in terms of latitude

are rta agreements with environmental provisions reducing emissions article i nfo this paper investigates whether rtas with environmental provisions affect relative and absolute pollution levels in order to do so the determinants of carbon dioxide emissions convergence are estimated for a cross section of 182 countries over the period 1980 to 2008 a propensity score matching approach is com bined with difference in differences techniques to effectively isolate the effect of the regional trade agree ment rta variable the usual controls for scale composition and technique effects are added to the estimated model and the endogeneity of income and trade variables is modeled using instruments the main results indicate that the co2 emissions of the pairs of countries that belong to an rta with environmen tal provisions tend to converge and are lower in absolute terms whereas this is not the case for rtas without environmental provisions as regards specific agreements we find that emissions converge more rapidly for nafta than for eu 27 and euro med countries we find consistent evidence that only rtas with environ mental harmonization policies affect relative and absolute pollution levels

symmetric pass through of tariffs and exchange rates under imperfect competition an empirical test abstract this paper examines the effect of tariffs and exchange rates on u s prices of japanese cars trucks and motorcycles in particular we test whether the long run pass through of tariffs and exchange rates are identical the symmetry hypothesis we find that this hypothesis is easily accepted in our sample we also find that the pass through relation varies across products ranging from about 0 6 for trucks to unity for motorcycles these coefficients have very different implications for trade policy we explain the results based on demand cost and institutional conditions in each industry

does trade liberalization lead to environmental burden shifting in the global economy abstract does trade liberalization lead to the outsourcing of pollution from industrialized countries to developing countries according to the pollution haven hypothesis international trade is a key channel through which richer countries can geographically dissociate consumption from production of goods we examine whether and how trade liberalization via preferential trade agreements ptas facilitates the shifting of consumption based environmental burdens from developed countries via imports to poorer countries via exports based on panel data analysis of 183 countries from 1987 to 2013 we find partial evidence for trade induced environmental burden shifting while we observe an increase in footprint exports from low income countries when these countries liberalize trade this is not matched by an increase in footprint imports of high income countries our results also show that environmental clauses in ptas and participation in international environmental agreements do not influence the relationship between trade liberalization and ecological footprint movements however domestic institutions have a significant effect on the trade induced distribution of environmental burdens these findings suggest that ptas as a policy tool for trade liberalization are per se unlikely to induce exploitation of low income countries natural capital by wealthier nations however they suggest that political incentives inherent to democratic institutions encourage environmental burden shifting

disentangling market access effects of preferential trading arrangements with an application for asean members under an asean eu fta the paper develops two synthetic measures at the hs 10 level to depict effective market access for a country receiving preferential access and applies these to the market access asean members would receive following the implementation of an fta with the eu first the measures show that current effective market access for asean eba members is cut in half by the preferences granted by the eu to countries that compete with these countries in the eu markets second the measures show that about one quarter of the preferential margin under the proposed fta for eba members would be lost as a result of preferential access granted to asean gsp members third disaggregated estimates of the restrictiveness of rules of origin confirm that rules are more restrictive for products with higher preferential margins and that asean countries usually face tougher rules of origin in the eu because of the composition of their exports

rtas proliferation and trade diversion effects evidence of the spaghetti bowl phenomenon this paper investigates the trade diversion effects of regional trade agreements rtas so called spaghetti bowl phenomenon sbp in multilateral trade the sbp is due to the proliferation of rtas thus we investigate the relationship between the number of rtas concluded by a country and the additional trade value attributed to an rta the main finding reveals a negative trade effect between them confirming the existence of sbp multilateral trade however results could not conclude evidence of a negative effect of overlapping rtas involving the existence of sbp within north north north south or south south trade but the additional trade value attributed to an rta concluded with eu countries or us seems to confirm significantly a trade diversion effect because of the number of rtas signed by these countries

currency unions and trade the effect is large the impact of a common currency on trade can be grossly mismeasured if countries that belong to currency unions are systematically different from those that do not and if the relationship between trade and its observable determinants is complex i argue that such complications are plausible and likely to distort the empirical results of a recent economic policy paper by andrew rose issue 30 2000 pp 7 45 using techniques designed to be robust in this situation i find that the effects of common currency on international trade are considerably less dramatic and much less precisely estimated copyright cepr ces msh 2001

are regional trading arrangements trade creating an application of extreme bounds analysis in this study we use extreme bounds analysis to test the robustness of the hypothesis that regional trading arrangements rtas are trade creating extreme bounds analysis provides a more rigorous test of specification uncertainty than traditional econometric theory by incorporating prior information and using a systematic approach to testing the fragility of coefficient estimates the results show that the trade creation effect of most rtas is fragile using a least squares estimator where all weight is attached to the sampling distribution eight or more of the twelve rtas considered are found to be trade creating when the relative weight in the estimation is shifted from the sampling to the prior distribution the number of rtas that are trade creating falls to six at the 95 percent likelihood ellipsoid moreover when we specify that not all rtas are trade creating four rtas increase trade at the 95 percent likelihood ellipsoid at the extreme bounds when all weight is attached to the prior distribution none of the rtas are found to be trade creating as a result we conclude that the pervasive trade creation effect found in the literature reflects not the information content of the data but rather the unacknowledged beliefs of the researchers

revisiting the effects of regional trade agreements on trade flows with proper specification of the gravity model this paper uses a gravity model to assess ex post regional trade agreements the model includes 130 countries and is estimated with panel data over the period 1962 1996 the introduction of the correct number of dummy variables allows for identification of vinerian trade creation and trade diversion effects while the estimation method takes into account the unobservable characteristics of each pairs of trade partner countries the endogeneity of some of the explanatory variables as well as a potential selection bias in contrast to previous estimates results show that regional agreements have generated a significant increase in trade between members often at the expense of the rest of the world

wto accession and tariff evasion abstract this study documents some unintended consequences of the world trade organization wto membership by providing evidence on displacement of tariff evasion driven by the wto accession process the analysis focuses on the wto customs valuation agreement cva which limits the discretion of customs officials when it comes to assessing the price of imports while prior to the wto accession customs officials are free to use their own judgment or apply minimum or reference prices after their country joined the wto they are mandated to accept the invoice price issued by the exporter if customs officials enjoy discretion with respect to assessing the import price they may assist importers with tariff evasion in exchange for bribes removing such discretion limits their ability to facilitate misrepresentation of import prices using data on 15 countries which joined the wto between 1996 and 2008 we find a positive relationship between underreporting of import prices and the tariff rate which is expected as the incentive to evade increases with the tariff rate importantly this relationship disappears after a country joins the wto this result is consistent with the cva closing one channel for corrupt behavior however we also find that changes to customs valuation procedures induce importers to seek alternative ways of tariff evasion such as underreporting of quantities and product misclassification the overall level of evasion remains unchanged

assessing the impact of unilateral trade policies eba and agoa on african beneficiaries exports using matching econometrics the existing literature studying the impact of non reciprocal preferential trade agreements nrptas assumes implicitly nrptas are non randomly assigned without showing the evidence of that using a matching methodology this paper investigates whether the african growth and opportunity act agoa and the everything but arms eba unilateral trade concessions have had an impact and in what magnitude on the exports of african beneficiary countries in the light of the evidence of the non random nature endogeneity of nrptas methodologically previous studies using the matching procedure focused on bi or multilateral trade agreements our work focuses on nrptas that depend only on donors conditions accordingly we show that for nrptas gravity covariates cannot be used for the matching procedure we propose to use political variables as determinants for obtaining non reciprocal trade preferences in order to address the endogenous nature of nrpta assignment our main results confirm that a country becomes eligible for a nrpta only when it meets certain conditions defined by their donors such as political stability and economic regulation for agoa and freedom of expression and human development for eba results also show that both agoa and eba policies have had a positive impact on african beneficiary countries exports to nrpta s providers even if the magnitude impact of eba is significantly lower than that of agoa

choosing the open sea the cost to the uk of staying out of the euro abstract in this paper we provide an estimate of the trade flows that there would have been between the uk and its main trading partners if the uk had joined the euro as an alternative approach to the standard log linear gravity equation we employ the synthetic control method we show that the aggregate trade flows between britain and eurozone members would have been 16 higher if the uk had adopted the euro we also provide an estimate of the hypothetical euro s effect on trade flows between the uk and non euro countries our results suggest that the adoption of the european currency would also have led to a substantial increase in british trade flows with non euro members finally we provide a new estimate of the euro s trade impact for euro members our results suggest that the adoption of the single currency led to an increase in intra european trade flows of between 19 and 55

trade creation and diversion revisited accounting for model uncertainty and natural trading partner effects summary the effect of preferential trade agreements ptas on trade flows is subject to model uncertainty stemming from the diverse and even contradictory effects suggested by the theoretical pta literature the existing empirical literature has produced remarkably disparate results and the wide variety of empirical approaches reflects the uncertainty about the correct set of explanatory variables that ought to be included in the analysis to account for the model uncertainty that surrounds the validity of the competing pta theories we introduce bayesian model averaging bma to the pta literature statistical theory shows that bma successfully incorporates model uncertainty in linear regression analysis by minimizing the mean squared error and by generating predictive distributions with optimal predictive performance once model uncertainty is addressed as part of the empirical strategy we find strong evidence of trade creation trade diversion and open bloc effects our results are robust to a range of alternative empirical specifications proposed by the recent pta literature copyright 2010 john wiley sons ltd

agro industrial processing and agricultural pricing under uncertainty processing domestically available materials for export has intuitive appeal e g if transport costs are reduced uncertainty in the supply of the raw material can be a crucial factor the theoretical model of this paper shows how to choose the optimal processing capacity and relatedly the optimal price to pay producers of the input issues include decision makers preferences sources and nature of uncertainty availability of inputs to produce the raw material and technology and costs of processing econometric estimates of the climate yield relation are used to simulate these decisions for the case of senegalese groundnut processing there is an intuitive appeal to industrial strategies based on processing domestically available raw materials for export for instance relative to export of the raw material for processing abroad domestic processing often achieves cost savings based on certain locational advantages such as the opportunity to decrease the product s weight prior to transport in this paper i analyse the costs and benefits of investing in processing capacity under particular conditions and the related question of the appropriate domestic pricing of the raw material the second part of the paper presents an application of the theory to senegalese groundnut culture and processing especially for agricultural inputs the domestic supply of the raw material is likely to be uncertain this uncertainty interacts with locational advantages in important ways affecting both the optimal choice of agro industrial processing capacity and the optimal choice of the price to be offered agricultural producers of the input from the viewpoint of the processing mills the locational advantage means that stochastically low availability of the raw material cannot be fully compensated by imports thus the problem of idle processing capacity arises similarly harvests of the input above the level that can be processed imply some loss of the locational advantages assuming that the input cannot be stored costlessly to illustrate these basic notions consider the simplest case of a single input with a given world price pj transformed at a constant unit cost r into an output with a given world price p let the size of the crop also be certain say of magnitude m so long as p pi r optimal processing capacity is m now consider a situation of uncertainty with two equiprobable states of nature faced

one money one market the effect of common currencies on trade currency unions their dramatic effect on international trade a gravity model is used to assess the separate effects of exchange rate volatility and currency unions on international trade the panel data bilateral observations for five years during 1970 90 covering 186 countries includes 300 observations in which both countries use the same currency i find a large positive effect of a currency union on international trade and a small negative effect of exchange rate volatility even after controlling for a host of features including the endogenous nature of the exchange rate regime these effects statistically significant imply that two countries sharing the same currency trade three times as much as they would with different currencies currency unions like the european emu may thus lead to a large increase in international trade with all that that entails andrew rose

estimating the effects of kyoto on bilateral trade flows using matching econometrics many kyoto countries fear a loss of competitiveness due to unilateral climate policy efforts policymakers therefore call for carbon related border tax adjustments with this paper we attempt to estimate the treatment effect of kyoto commitment on bilateral export flows using regression adjusted differences in differences matching techniques the gravity and international environmental agreement formation literatures provide guidelines for the choice of matching variables we find that kyoto countries exports are reduced by 13 to 14 per cent due to kyoto commitment trade effects are largest in energy intensive homogeneous industries such as iron and steel non ferrous metals organic and inorganic chemicals but also in machinery and equipment

sovereign debt restructuring messy or messier ever since the mexican asian and russian crises of the mid 1990 s efforts have been underway to find means for more effective prevention and resolution of currency financial crises much has been done with respect to crisis prevention exchange rate flexibility is much greater than it was there is increased transparency and improved oversight of the financial system and greater attention is paid to unsustainable policy stances work continues to strengthen economies immunity to crises however no matter how much is done there will inevitably be a crisis or crises much has already been learned with respect to crisis resolution and the international financial community is better equipped to cope with crises than was the case earlier but as with prevention more can be done one item on the agenda which should contribute both to prevention and to resolution is dealing with unsustainable debt burdens of sovereign nations two of the hallmarks of most of the 1990 s crises were first the importance of private capital flows and their reversals in triggering the crises and in intensifying their severity and second the involvement of the financial systems in them the countries afflicted by these crises were ones that had succeeded in raising per capita incomes and rates of economic growth that success hinged in significant part on their having put in place economic policies that are conducive to economic growth including a predictable legal framework respect for property rights openness to the international economy and much more the fact that the policy framework was generally appropriate implied among other things that there were relatively high real returns to investment in these economies that is of course the main reason why private investors were interested in them at the same time capital inflows permitted more rapid development than would otherwise be possible these associations of high real returns growth and appropriate policy stances continue for these reasons there is typically a strong stake for emerging markets to maintain international creditworthiness and policymakers go to great lengths to maintain their international reputations and market standings an efficient private international capital market benefits both developing countries which are thereby able to invest more than domestic savings at high real rates of return and investors in high income countries who can realize higher real returns and greater portfolio diversification than they could achieve without these investment opportunities because countries are sovereign their high stakes in maintaining creditworthiness are crucial for attracting international capital flows this is because foreign creditors do not have the rights they do in domestic courts and hence must have other protections against default on the part of borrowers this is especially true for sovereign borrowers international lenders to private entities in emerging markets normally have the same protection as is afforded to domestic lenders for sovereign borrowing however the chief protection foreign creditors have is the losses that would accrue to the sovereign debtor both directly through the future reduction in access to international credit markets and through the effects on private economic activity of a sovereign default in the event of discussants guillermo calvo interamerican development bank and university of maryland morris goldstein institute for international economics michael mussa institute for international economics ann harrison university of california berkeley

general equilibrium treatment effects a study of tuition policy this paper defines and estimates general equilibrium treatment effects the conventional approach in the literature on treatment effects ignores interactions among individuals induced by the policy interventions being studied focusing on the impact of tuition policy and using estimates from our dynamic overlapping generations general equilibrium model of capital and human capital formation we find that general equilibrium impacts of tuition on college enrollment are an order of magnitude smaller than those reported in the literature on microeconomic treatment effects the assumptions used to justify the late parameter in a partial equilibrium setting do not hold in a general equilibrium setting policy changes induce two way flows we extend the late concept to a general equilibrium setting we present a more comprehensive evaluation to program evaluation by considering both the tax and benefit consequences of the program being evaluated and placing the analysis in a market setting this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

the wto trade effect this paper reexamines the gatt wto membership efiect on bilateral trade ows using nonparametric methods including pair matching permutation tests and a rosenbaum 2002 sensitivity analysis together these methods provide an estimation framework that is robust to misspeciflcation biases allows general forms of heterogeneous treatment efiects and addresses potential hidden selection biases this is in contrast to most conventional parametric studies on this issue our results suggest large gatt wto trade promoting efiects robust to various restricted matching criteria alternative indicators for gatt wto involvement different matching methodologies non random incidence of positive trade ows and inclusion of multilateral resistance terms

rent destruction and the political viability of free trade agreements this paper studies the political viability of free trade agreements ftas the key element of the analysis is the rent destruction that these arrangements induce by eliminating intrabloc trade barriers an fta lowers the incentives of import competing industries to lobby for higher external tariffs thereby inducing a reduction of the rents created in the lobbying process using a conventional competitive model i show that the prospect of rent destruction can critically undermine and in some cases rule out entirely the political viability of welfarereducing ftas this result contrasts sharply with findings from the earlier regionalism literature

keynes and coase abstractronald coase has written provocatively on the methodology of positive economics but this aspect of his work is not well known or much attended to and to the extent it is noticed it is regarded by most modern economists as eccentric as it involves a rejection of rational choice theory the effort in this paper is to rescue his methodological writings from obscurity and note the hitherto unremarked and paradoxical methodological affinity between him and john maynard keynes whose unmodern approach to economics is enjoying renewed respect in the wake of the global economic crisis that began in 2008

selection on observed and unobserved variables assessing the effectiveness of catholic schools in this paper we measure the effect of catholic high school attendance on educational attainment and test scores because we do not have a good instrumental variable for catholic school attendance we develop new estimation methods based on the idea that the amount of selection on the observed explanatory variables in a model provides a guide to the amount of selection on the unobservables we also propose an informal way to assess selectivity bias based on measuring the ratio of selection on unobservables to selection on observables that would be required if one is to attribute the entire effect of catholic school attendance to selection bias we use our methods to estimate the effect of attending a catholic high school on a variety of outcomes our main conclusion is that catholic high schools substantially increase the probability of graduating from high school and more tentatively attending college we find little evidence of an effect on test scores

third country effects of regional trade agreements does regionalism negatively impact non members to answer this question we examine the effect of regional trade agreements rtas on imports from non members and the tariffs that they face using data from six rtas in latin america and europe we do not find evidence that implementation of the regional agreements is associated with trade diversion from third countries to regional members using detailed industry data on preference margins and most favoured nation mfn tariffs for three trade agreements in latin america over 12 years we find that greater preference margins do not significantly reduce imports from third countries we also look at the effect of preferences on external tariffs we find evidence that preferential tariff reduction tends to precede the reduction of external mfn tariffs in a given sector offering evidence of tariff complementarity overall the results suggest that regionalism does not significantly harm non members

the reincarnation of keynesian economics this paper discusses the reemergence of keynesian economics during the past decade it highlights the substantial differences between new keynesian economics and the convictions of early keynesians in particular it points out that new keynesians have adopted many views that were once considered monetarist or classical it concludes that the term keynesian may have outlived its usefulness this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

alternative approaches to evaluation in empirical microeconomics four alternative but related approaches to empirical evaluation of policy interventions are studied social experiments natural experiments matching methods and instrumental variables in each case the necessary assumptions and the data requirements are considered for estimation of a number of key parameters of interest these key parameters include the average treatment effect the treatment on the treated and the local average treatment effect some issues of implementation and interpretation are discussed drawing on the labour market programme evaluation literature

do we really know that the wto increases trade comment in a recent article in the american economic review andrew k rose 2004 finds that countries belonging to the general agreement on tariffs and trade gatt and its successor the world trade organization wto did not trade more than countries that abstained from membership a vast literature on the gatt and the wto presupposes that these organizations were important but until rose there were few systematic efforts to test the assumption that membership increased trade rose s contribution is striking because he assembles a large dataset performs a myriad of analyses and uncovers scant evidence that the gatt and the wto had any impact rose describes his negative findings as an interesting mystery 112 the solution to this mystery lies in understanding who actually participated in the gatt we show that rose has overlooked a large proportion of countries to which the agreement applied and mistakenly classified them as nonparticipants when in fact they had rights and obligations under the agreement this causes a downward bias in his estimates of the gatt s effect on trade because his gravity regressions

trade in services and regional trade agreements do negotiations on services have to be specific trade in services has been on a substantial positive trend since the last decades and the number of regional trade agreements rta in force has increased regularly overtime however negotiations on services remain hesitant even at the bilateral level to evaluate the impact of rtas on trade in services a general classi cation as balassa s classi cation is not exactly appropriate to go through the 211 rtas noti ed to the wto permits a data analysis and then to sort rtas according to the own level of liberalization in services of every agreement i estimate a gravity equation using panel data covering the period 1999 2007 adding time varying dummies country and time

kyoto and carbon leakage an empirical analysis of the carbon content of bilateral trade abstract has the kyoto protocol induced carbon leakage we conduct the first empirical ex post evaluation of the protocol we derive a theoretical gravity equation for the carbon dioxide content of trade which accounts for intermediate inputs both domestic and imported the structure of our new panel database of the carbon content of sectoral bilateral trade flows allows controlling for the endogenous selection of countries into the kyoto protocol binding commitments under kyoto have increased committed countries embodied carbon imports from noncommitted countries by around 8 and the emission intensity of their imports by about 3 hence kyoto has indeed led to leakage

sensitivity to exogeneity assumptions in program evaluation in many empirical studies of the effect of social programs researchers assume that conditional on a set of observed covariates assignment to the treatment is exogenous or unconfounded aka selection on observables often this assumption is not realistic and researchers are concerned about the robustness of their results to departures from it one approach e g charles manski 1990 is to entirely drop the exogeneity assumption and investigate what can be learned about treatment effects without it with unbounded outcomes and in the absence of alternative identifying assumptions there are no restrictions on the set of possible values for average treatment effects this does not mean however that all evaluations are equally sensitive to departures from the exogeneity assumption in this paper i explore an alternative approach developed by paul rosenbaum and donald rubin 1983 where the assumption of exogeneity is explicitly relaxed by allowing for a limited amount of correlation between treatment and unobserved components of the outcomes the starting point of the sensitivity analysis is the assumption that the exogeneity assumption is satisfied only conditional on an additional unobserved covariate making assumptions about the effect of the unobserved covariate on the outcome and its correlation with the treatment i trace out the set of possible values for the treatment effect of interest by considering a sufficiently large set of possible correlations with outcomes and treatment one can recover the bounds on the treatment effect derived by manski 1990 the approach here in the spirit of rosenbaum and rubin 1983 and rosenbaum 1995 is to allow only a limited amount of correlation and to judge the sensitivity of average treatment effect estimates to such correlations there are two novel features of the proposed analysis first rather than formulate the sensitivity in terms of coefficients on the unobserved covariate the sensitivity results are presented in terms of partial r values which may be easier to interpret second the partial r values of the unobserved covariates are compared to those for the observed covariates in order to facilitate judgments regarding the plausibility of values necessary to substantially change results obtained under exogeneity the proposed sensitivity analysis is conceptually related to the practice of assessing sensitivity of estimates by comparisons with results obtained by discarding one or more observed covariates james heckman and v joseph hotz 1989 rajeev dehejia and sadek wahba 1999 jeffrey smith and petra todd 2001 the attraction of the sensitivity analysis is that it is more directly relevant one is not interested in what would have happened in the absence of covariates actually observed but in biases that are the result from not observing all relevant covariates

economic integration among developed developing and centrally planned economies a comparative analysis we examine six integration schemes and decompose their ability to increase inter member trade into environmental policy and system effects environmental factors caused the greatest variation in trade creation with inter member distance the most important environmental variable the cacm and efta have followed more effective integration policies than the eec lafta and the andean pact although integration can thus benefit developed and developing countries alike for some such as those in latin america inter member distances severely limit its effectiveness while the combination of policy and system has kept the cmea fromrr achieving its full potential for increasing inter member trade its effectiveness does not differ from that of unions among market economies

climate change policy market structure and carbon leakage abstract the 1997 kyoto protocol on climate change obliges the industrialized countries to initiate the international effort of abating anthropogenic greenhouse gas ghg emissions if such an initiative is to be taken the associated competitive effects may lead to significant relocation of developed countries energy intensive production this paper examines this issue i adopt an oligopolistic structure combined with increasing returns to scale production technologies to represent the strategic interaction among the firms producing energy intensive products this representation is then embedded within a multi regional computable general equilibrium model which in turn is used for quantifying these relocational effects the results suggest that significant relocation of energy intensive industries away from the oecd may occur depending on the type of market structure with leakage rates as high as 130 in which case ghg control policies in the industrialized countries actually lead to higher global emissions

the mercantilist index of trade policy we introduce an index of trade policy restrictiveness defined as the uniform tariff that maintains the same trade volume as a given tariff quota structure our index overcomes the problems of the trade weighted average tariff it avoids substitution bias correctly accounts for general equilibrium transfers and takes import volume instead of welfare as benchmark empirical applications to international cross section and time series comparisons of trade policy confirm our theoretical results trade weighted average tariffs generally underestimate the true height of tariffs as measured by the trade volume equivalent index this in turn always underestimates the welfare equivalent index

a generalized design for bilateral trade flow models abstract this paper suggests a full interaction effects design to analyze bilateral trade flows this is illustrated with an unbalanced panel of bilateral trade between the triad eu15 usa and japan economies and their 57 most important trading partners over the period 1986 1997 our full interaction model finds empirical support for the new trade theory and linder s hypothesis we show that the omission of one or more interaction effects can result in biased estimates and misleading inference

migration and development dissecting the anatomy of the mobility transition abstract emigration first increases and then decreases as a country experiences economic development this inverted u shaped cross sectional relationship between emigration and development was first hypothesized by zelinsky s theory of the mobility transition although several mechanisms have been proposed to explain the upward segment of the curve the most common being the existence of financial constraints they have not been examined in a systematic way in this paper we propose two decomposition methods to disentangle the main drivers of the mobility transition curve to oecd destination countries our simple decompositions shed light on the role of both microeconomic drivers i e financial incentives and constraints and macroeconomic drivers as well as the skill composition of the population our double decomposition further distinguishes between migration aspirations and realization rates by education level overall we provide consistent evidence that the role of financial constraints while relevant for the poorest countries is limited rather a large fraction of the increasing segment is explained by the skill composition and by macroeconomic drivers i e by factors that do not change in the short run

trade benefits under the eec generalized system of preferences the purpose of the paper is to test for the existence of a statistically significant effect of the eec generalized system of preferences on actual trade flows between developing countries and the eec using a gravity type model we estimate the gross trade creation effect of the eec generalized system of preferences on the eec imports from 10 major developing countries estimation on a yearly basis for the period 1967 1978 indicates the presence of a statistically significant effect it would appear that gross trade creation amounted to about s2 billion for these 10 countries in 1978 in addition to these calculations the paper reviews the eec generalized system of preferences in detail and offers comments on its future impact on exports from developing countries

do sanitary phytosanitary and quality related standards affect international trade evidence from chilean fruit exports summary increasing awareness of food safety issues has led to intensive use of sanitary phytosanitary and quality related regulations and standards imposing a burden on exporting countries worldwide this study assesses the impact of such regulations and standards estimating a gravity model for chilean fresh fruit exports that incorporates a stringency perception index that comprises different dimensions of trade requirements our results suggest that an increase in stringency has a negative and substantial effect on exported volumes and the reduction is higher if stringency increases in developed countries results also showed that different dimensions have different effects on trade

trade and carbon taxes we study various scenarios for taxing emissions of carbon dioxide c02 the question is how carbon tax policies will perform given interna tional trade if countries adopt different tax rates we investigate this question quantitatively using cim earth a newly developed open source computable general equilibrium cge model since climate change is a function of global c02 emissions an efficient strategy for control ling emissions would be to impose the same price wherever they occur such an approach presents a free riding problem however because nations have an incentive not to comply while gaining the ben efits of reduced emissions elsewhere moreover because of distributive concerns and claims about

the economic role of commodity storage one of the earliest and most successful exainples of economic policy is the oftquoted biblical account of joseph s interpretation of the pharoah s dream joseph foretold that seven years of abundant harvests would precede seven years of drought and recommended that the pharoah accumulate grain during the good years since that time the central role of storage in stabilising the economy in the face of exogenous disturbances has been obvious but our understanding of the nature of that role has not greatly advanced without divine assistance in forecasting stochastic production the storage decision is considerably more complex than the one joseph faced and the role of storage quite different in fact several commonly held impressions about the role of storage of commodities such as grains are incorrect rather than stabilising production storage actually accentuates its variability rather than causing a mean price preserving decrease or a mean output preserving decrease in the dispersion of price storage generally causes a more complex modification of the distribution of price rather than being most effective at eliminating short falls in consumption storage actually is more effective at eliminating the incidence of exceedingly high consumption in this paper we explore the role of storage in a model where production is stochastic and both production and storage are performed by competitive profitmaximisers who form rational expectations about the returns to their activities we derive the subtle but very important interactions among production price expectations and storage which simpler models cannot capture finally we make a comparative statics assessment of the distributional implications of storage these results while confirming the importance of the specification of the demand function and the supply elasticity identified in recent analytical studies e g wright i979 and newbery and stiglitz i979 are surprisingly favourable to consumers considering the asymmetric nature of the effects of storage on consumption and price storage is simply a productive activity one that transfers a commodity from one period to the next like other forms of production it is costly the total cost of storing an amount st from period t to period t i is as of period t i

rules and discretion in trade policy abstract we argue that the second best nature of trade policy suggests that the issue of time consistency will be an important consideration in determining the extent and efficacy of such intervention if production decisions are made prior to consumption decisions governments with sufficient policy discretion will be tempted to surprise producers with policies other than those announced in an effort to separate the consumption tax aspect from the production subsidy dimension of a tariff this leads optimal trade policy to be time inconsistent in a wide range of environments we explore this idea and illustrate the results with specific examples

mergers and acquisitions trade a global value chain analysis the present paper deals with how the insertion in international trade and global value chains gvcs of countries affects their capacity of attracting foreign mergers and acquisitions m as to this end we combine data for bilateral m as and trade in value added for the period 2001 15 and estimate an augmented gravity equation results indicate that trade openness per se does not favour m as nevertheless bilateral free trade agreements heterogeneity of destinations sources for exports imports of intermediate and final goods and position and participation in global value chains are relevant for explaining bilateral m as moreover their role is significantly different depending on the level of development of the home and host countries

do trade agreements stimulate international trade differently evidence from 296 trade agreements in a seminal article rose 2004 found that the assumed positive impact of the wto on international trade was questionable this finding has been scrutinised and modified in subsequent research using different data sets econometric methods and separating the wto from other forms of trade agreements a key characteristic of the subsequent literature is the rather simplistic way in which trade agreements are treated whereby all trade agreements are lumped together trade agreements come however in many different forms and shapes this study addresses these differences in trade agreements using a unique database of 296 trade agreements we distinguish 17 trade related policy domains and indicate whether the agreements contain legally enforceable commitments this extensive and novel taxonomy of trade agreements enables us to allow for the possible heterogeneity of the impact of trade agreements on international trade using a gravity model we find that trade agreement heterogeneity indeed matters for international trade and that countries experience significant trade increases due to comprehensive trade agreements even if not all participants are in the wto

economic effects of currency unions we develop a new instrumental variable iv approach to estimate the effects of different exchange rate regimes on bilateral outcomes the basic idea is that the characteristics of the exchange rate between two countries are partially related to the independent decisions of these countries to peg explicitly or de facto to a third currency notably that of a main anchor this component of the exchange rate regime can be used as an iv in regressions of bilateral outcomes we apply the methodology to study the economic effects of currency unions the likelihood that two countries independently adopt the currency of the same anchor country is used as an instrument for whether they share a common currency we find that sharing a common currency enhances trade increases price comovements and decreases the comovement of real gross domestic product shocks

currency unions and trade how large is the treatment effect currency unions and trade what can the data say the impact of a common currency on trade can be grossly mismeasured if countries that belong to currency unions are systematically different from those that do not and if the relationship between trade and its observable determinants is complex i argue that such complications are plausible and likely to distort the empirical results of a recent economic policy paper by andrew rose issue 30 2000 pp 7 45 using techniques designed to be robust in this situation i find that the effects of common currency on international trade are considerably less dramatic and much less precisely estimated torsten persson i have always maintained that the measured effect of a single currency on trade appears implausibly large but i am not convinced by torsten persson s diagnosis and proposed solution i apply a variety of estimation techniques to a new larger data set where many more instances of currency union creation and abandonment make it possible to rely on time series as well as cross sectional evidence the results are similar to my earlier ones the effect of a single currency on trade is large andrew rose

assessing the trade impact of the european neighbourhood policy on the eu med free trade area the european neighbourhood policy enp set an additional objective for the southern mediterranean countries smcs the prospect of a stake in the internal market the launch of this new policy has been the occasion for a revival of empirical studies aimed at assessing the impact of the eu med partnership on bilateral trade the novelty of this work is twofold i to present nonparametric matching estimators besides gravity estimates ii to assume as a counterfactual of the treatment the ex post long run average treatment effects of the europe agreements by controlling for likely selection bias and country and time heterogeneity using both qualitative and quantitative measures of the policy variable we assess ex post the trade enhancing impact of the eu preferential agreements towards smcs and ex ante the actual efficacy of the enp

why cooperate public goods economic power and the montreal protocol this paper develops a correlated probit model to describe dichotomous choices that may contain a public goods component or some other forms of interdependency the key contribution of the paper is to formulate tests for interdependent behavior among agents in particular we examine the decisions by nations whether or not to ratify the montreal protocol on substances that deplete the ozone layer specifically we reject free riding as a motive for not ratifying the protocol and we find little evidence that individual nations were influenced by the behavior of their largest trading partners hence the data suggest that with respect to the montreal protocol most nations acted without regard for the actions of other nations

agricultural trade and the gatt wto does membership make a difference recent empirical studies have estimated the trade flow effect of membership in the world trade organization wto and its predecessor the general agreement on tariffs and trade gatt one important although largely untested conclusion from this literature is that the gatt wto works well if we ignore trade in agriculture one of the institutions seemingly apparent failures this article investigates this conclusion using a large panel of agricultural and non agricultural trade flows the results are impressive the multilateral institution has delivered significant positive effects on members agricultural trade despite its sensitive nature and the reluctance of members to undertake serious reform these findings are robust to various slices of the data and recent advances in the specification and estimation of the gravity equation to account for sample selection issues and the extensive margin of trade copyright 2012 oxford university press

the impact of the acfta on asean prc trade estimates based on an extended gravity model for component trade this article uses an extended gravity model to examine the impact of the free trade agreement between the association of southeast asian nations asean and the people s republic of china prc on their trade flows and patterns new determinants are utilized to capture the growing importance of global production sharing and intraregional trade in parts and components in east asia we show that the free trade agreement leads to substantially higher and more pronounced bilateral trade flows between asean and the prc than what a conventional gravity model predicts and the increase is concentrated in asean countries that have stronger industrial linkages with the prc

trade creation and trade diversion in the canada united states free trade agreement in this paper the changes in trade patterns introduced by the canada united states free trade agreement are examined variation in the extent of tariff liberalization under the agreement is used to identify the impact of tariff liberalization on the growth of trade both with member countries and non member countries data at the commodity level are used and the results indicate that the canada united states free trade agreement had substantial trade creation effects with little evidence of trade diversion jel classification f13 f14

measuring the impact of china s export growth on its asian neighbours the rise of china as an economic power has led to concern in many countries especially among asian countries that this development poses a serious threat to their own economic performance and in particular their ability to export the empirical support for this view remains inconsistent however with mixed evidence for the view that chinese exports has harmed or helped exports by other asian economies and which countries are more or less affected one explanation for these inconsistencies might include the various biases that follow from the use of a gravity model that is specified in an a theoretical manner in this paper we study the effect of the chinese exports growth on those by other asian countries using the empirical framework outlined by baldwin and taglioni 2006 the disadvantage of this approach is that we capture the relative effect rather than its direction that is when using the theoretically robust gravity model we are able to identify which countries are more or less harmed by chinese exports and not whether the effect is positive or negative to identify that we use instead trade on parts and components and final goods taken together we evidence of a positive relation between chinese and its asian neighbours exports with countries with greater endowments of human capital and capital labour ratio benefiting most from this growth

ronald coase and methodology ronald coase wrote two great theoretical articles that earned him the nobel prize the nature of the firm in 1937 and the problem of social cost in 1960 he also wrote many articles dealing with the methodology of economics often in the setting of a discussion of a particular economist such as adam smith or alfred marshall the methodological articles will be my particular focus here

trade policy trade costs and developing country trade this paper briefly reviews new indices of trade restrictiveness and trade facilitation that have been developed at the world bank the paper also compares the trade impact of different types of trade restrictions applied at the border with the effects of domestic policies that affect trade costs based on a gravity regression framework the analysis suggests that tariffs and non tariff measures continue to be a significant source of trade restrictiveness for low income countries despite preferential access programs this is because the value of trade preferences is quite limited a new measure of the relative preference margin developed in the paper reveals that this is very low for most country pairs most countries with very good duty free access to a market generally have competitors that have the same degree of access the empirical analysis suggests that measures to improve logistics performance and facilitate trade are likely to have the greatest positive effects in expanding developing country trade increasing the trade impacts of lowering remaining border barriers by a factor of two or more

the direct and relative effects of preferential market access abstract the proliferation of preferential trade agreements has resulted in a complex system of preferences in which market access conditions are often discriminatory in this paper we investigate how market access conditions have evolved between 2000 and 2009 and how this has affected international trade our results show that the proliferation of preferential access has increased bilateral trade not only due to lower tariffs but also because preferential access often resulted in higher preferential margins vis a vis foreign competitors the results also indicate that the evolution of the system of preferences has been disadvantageous for countries that did not actively engage in forming new trade agreements

trade in polarized america the border effect between red states and blue states political and cultural polarization in the united states is widely discussed but does it relate to any economic disconnection among states we estimate the border effect between red and blue states using the gravity equation with a nonlinear generalized method of moments estimator to simultaneously overcome the problems associated with endogeneity cross state price differences and zero trade flow the border effect is robustly confirmed for the 2000s while not so robustly detected for the 1990s notably in 2007 the border reduces trade between red and blue states to approximately 75 of the trade within each set of states this estimated border effect is much smaller than the united states canada national border effect estimated by anderson and van wincoop 2003 and by feenstra 2002 yet is comparable to the border effect that nitsch and wolf 2009 find for the former west and east germanies approximately loyears after reunification while the border effect in germany after reunification is decreasing the border effect between the red and blue states is emerging we also find the border effect is more significant for consumption rather than intermediate goods the border effect is an important indicator for a potential dismantling of the economic connectivity in the united states jel d72 f10 fi5 r1 i introduction recent u s presidential elections have raised concern about polarization in u s politics and culture namely the united states is divided into two nations the red states we call it the red nation preserving the term state for an individual state and the blue states the blue nation in the red nation culturally and religiously conservative republicans are dominant while in the blue nation liberal democrats are the majority so far the focus of the discussion is the extent of the polarization abramowitz and saunders 2008 fiorina et al 2008 its determinants gelman et al 2010 and its implications on federal policy making glaeser et al 2005 mellow and trubowitz 2005 economic implications have not been largely discussed however the polarization may suggest economic divisions because it is a sign of geographic sorting of people and their preferences this article provides evidence that economic disconnectivity between the red and blue nations emerged in the 2000s we explore 1 whether there is a border effect on interstate trade 2 if the effect exists how large it is and 3 what types of goods are most affected in the context of existing literature and recent u s political and cultural events we then provide possible explanations for our findings this study uses a gravity equation of international trade to examine the effect of the fictional national border between the red and blue nations the methodology was originally applied by mccallum 1995 to estimate the degree of impact of the national border on trade between the united states and canada he finds that intercountry trade is less than 5 of the intracountry trade of canada controlling for other factors following mccallum s 1995 work several studies have proposed methodological improvements we apply an updated estimation method nonlinear generalized method of moments gmm estimator of a gravity equation to examine the border effect between the red and blue nations our analysis finds a statistically and economically significant border effect between the red and blue nations especially in years 2002 and 2007 we examine the border effect in 1993 1997 2002 and 2007 the years in which trade flow data are available from the federal commodity flow survey cfs the border effect is not robustly found in 1993 and 1997 however it is robustly detected in 2002 and 2007 even with additional controls or alternative specifications at the industry level analysis we find that the border effect is significant for consumption goods such as food tobacco and printed products but not for intermediate products i

a gravity model of virtual water trade this work investigates the determinants of virtual water trade vwt ows by means of an estimated gravity model of trade applied to the virtual water embodied in the agricultural goods exchanged across countries in line with the recent literature on the gravity model the paper presents a battery of estimation methods cross section and panel ols and pseudo maximum likelihood with and without two way xed eects the analysis shows that bilateral vwt ows are aected by the classical determinants of trade but also by national water endowments as well as by the level of pressure on water resources these general ndings are robust even though some variation can be observed across the estimation methods and in particular when smaller sub samples of countries such as continents and regional groups are considered this contributes to account for the mixed evidence in the literature on the importance of water endowments for the vwt ows

measuring the restrictiveness of trade policy this article provides an introduction to the trade restrictiveness index tri which equals the uniform tariff that is welfare equivalent to a given pattern of trade protection unlike standard measures of trade restrictiveness the tri has a solid theoretical basis can incorporate both tariffs and quantitative restrictions and can be adapted to construct the trade policy equivalent of domestic distortions the article compares a number of applications and describes procedures for operationalizing the tri on a personal computer the authors conclude that the tri has considerable potential in empirical work

gravity models a reformulation and an application to discriminatory trade arrangements gravity models are used to estimate trade flows from 162 countries into 11 major importing countries for 1976 counting the ec as one the main theories underlying gravity models are reviewed and a new gravity model is derived from a linear expenditure system a major innovation of this model is that both tariffs and dummy variables for discriminatory arrangements are incorporated price variables are also explicitly included in the model the tariff and the dummy variables are found to be statistically significant and this indicates that previous gravity model studies which used dummies to estimate the trade benefits of preferential tariffs may not have accurately estimated the effects of the preferences the price variables generally are also found to be statistically significant which casts doubt on the homogeneous goods assumption underlying the purchasing power parity hypothesis some significant differences in the estimates were found when separate equations were regressed for the eec and the us