uncertainty and endogenous technical change in climate policy models until recently endogenous technical change and uncertainty have been modeled separately in climate policy models in this paper we review the emerging literature that considers both these elements together taken as a whole the literature indicates that explicitly including uncertainty has important quantitative and qualitative impacts on optimal climate change technology policy

identifying roles of international institutions in clean energy technology innovation and diffusion in the developing countries matching barriers with roles of the institutions abstract the development of clean energy technologies is a central issue in climate change negotiation the signatory countries to the united nations convention on climate change agreed to organize the technology executive committee and the climate technology centre and network the objectives of this paper are twofold the first objective is to show a broad landscape of barriers in technology development the paper summarizes the results of key case studies that were conducted to uncover technology specific barriers in technology development these case studies include both technologies for industrial use such as wind bio energy and building energy efficiency and technologies for individual use such as light emitting diodes and photovoltaic panels the case studies also contain technologies at the innovation stage such as integrated gasification combined cycle and carbon capture and storage the second objective of this paper is to highlight and define roles of international institutions in overcoming identified barriers in clean energy technology development in this paper four areas of focus for international institutions are discussed including 1 increasing r d cooperation at the innovation stage 2 facilitation of intellectual property rights 3 supporting finance and 4 enhancing the enabling environment at the diffusion stage

investment cash flow sensitivity and financial constraint a cluster analysis approach this article sheds light on the mixed empirical evidence concerning financial constraint and investment sensitivity to cash flow the literature suggests that measuring financial constraint is far from straightforward and we therefore propose a cluster analysis procedure to identify unambiguous groups of constrained firms we found the investment results to be highly sensitive to cash flow for financial constraint firms moreover in line with previous research our results showed that the traditional criteria used to identify financially constrained firms led to ambiguous interpretations overall our results propose that the cluster analysis can be used to encompass the various single criterion approaches thereby providing a finer measurement of the financial constraint construct and deeper insight into the relationship between investment sensitivity to cash flow and financial constraint

climate mitigation under an uncertain technology future a tiam world analysis abstract this paper explores the impacts of long term technology and climate uncertainties on the optimal evolution of the world energy system stochastic programming with the tiam world model is used for a parametric analysis of hedging strategies varying the probabilities associated to each of two contrasted technology outlooks the parametric analysis constitutes an original supplement to the computation of hedging strategies by identifying technologies that are robust under a broad range of probabilities of the two technology outlooks natural gas appears to be one of the most appealing robust options in an uncertain technological context especially in china given its relatively low emissions and the low capital cost of associated technologies natural gas and some other options are in fact considered as super hedging actions penetrating more in the hedging solution than in any of the deterministic scenarios nuclear power and ccs use are less robust they depend much more on either the level of the climate target or the probabilities of the technology outlooks the analysis also shows that technological uncertainty has a greater impact under milder climate targets than under more severe ones future research might consider a larger set of possible technology outlooks as well as specific analyses focused on key characteristics of low carbon technologies

do banks provide financial slack we study the decision to choose bank debt rather than public securities in a firm s marginal financing choice using a sample of 500 firms over the 1980 to 1993 time period we find that firms are relatively more likely to choose bank loans when variables that measure asymmetric information problems are elevated the sensitivity of the likelihood of choosing bank debt to information problems is greater for firms with no public debt outstanding these results are consistent with the hypothesis that banks help alleviate asymmetric information problems and that firms weigh these information benefits against a wide range of contracting costs when choosing bank financing why do some firms borrow from public sources while others rely exclusively on private lenders the answer to this question is not well understood existing theories suggest that a firm must consider the tradeoff between the benefits and costs of bank debt financing relative to other potential financing choices the potential benefits of bank financing include low moral hazard and adverse selection costs and ease of renegotiation in financial distress 1 the potential costs of bank financing include monitoring costs suboptimal liquidation outcomes and distortions induced by information monopolies 2 the goal of this paper is to identify whether adverse selection problems influence a firm s choice between new bank debt public debt or common stock in particular we are interested in assessing the empirical validity of the hypothesis that banks have the ability to accurately price a firm s claims thus inducing a preference for firms that are undervalued by the market to

the differential impact of low carbon technologies on climate change mitigation cost under a range of socioeconomic and climate policy scenarios this paper considers the effect of several key parameters of low carbon energy technologies on the cost of abatement a methodology for determining the minimum level of performance required for a parameter to have a statistically significant impact on co2 abatement cost is developed and used to evaluate the impact of eight key parameters of low carbon energy supply technologies on the cost of co2 abatement the capital cost of nuclear technology is found to have the greatest impact of the parameters studied the cost of biomass and ccs technologies also have impacts while their efficiencies have little if any sensitivity analysis of the results with respect to population gdp and co2 emission constraint show that the minimum performance level and impact of nuclear technologies is consistent across the socioeconomic scenarios studied while the other technology parameters show different performance under higher population lower gdp scenarios solar technology was found to have a small impact and then only at very low costs these results indicate that the cost of nuclear is the single most important driver of abatement cost and that trading efficiency for cost may make biomass and ccs technologies more competitive

allocation effects of uncertainty on resources in japan this paper provides evidence of a negative association between macroeconomic uncertainty and the cross sectional dispersion of investment rate for a panel of japanese manufacturing firms we show that an increase in uncertainty leads to the narrowing of the cross section dispersion of investment rate and vice versa this finding suggests that firms fixed capital investment behavior becomes more homogeneous in times of increased uncertainty

business groups and internal capital markets the recovery of the mexican economy in the aftermath of the 1995 crisis in the second half of the nineties the mexican economy experienced a severe financial crisis however as the initial panic subsided mexico started to show promising signals of macroeconomic recovery not only did the economy rebound within a year but also grew steadily afterward averaging an annual rate slightly above 5 during 1996 2000 in this article it is suggested that the business group structure helped in the recovery of the economy the collapse of the banking system and the interruption of financing flows through the domestic financial markets was overcome by a change in the firms capital structure firms when possible started to depend more on trade credit and the internal capital market of business groups created a financial cushion that kept the economy working in order to offer a rationale for the mexican experience a theoretical model is presented where it is shown that moral hazard problems are reduced within a business group as long as affiliated firms in the nontradable sector surrender control rights during periods of crisis copyright 2007 oxford university press

financial factors and investment in belgium france germany and the united kingdom a comparison using company panel data we construct company panel data sets for manufacturing firms in belgium france germany and the united kingdom covering the period 1978 1989 these data sets are used to estimate empirical investment equations and to investigate the role played by financial factors in each country a robust finding is that cash flow and profits terms appear to be both statistically and quantitatively more significant in the united kingdom than in the three continental european countries this is consistent with the suggestion that financial constraints on investment may be relatively severe in the more market oriented u k financial system

strategic transparency and informed trading will capital market integration force convergence of corporate governance dominant investors can influence the publicly available information about firms by affecting the cost of information collection under strategic competition transparency results in higher variability of profits and output thus lenders prefer less transparency since this protects firms when in a weak competitive position while equity holders prefer more market interaction creates strategic complementarity in gathering information on competing firms thus entry by transparent competitors will improve price informativeness moreover as the return to information gathering increases with liquidity increasing global trading may undermine the ability of bank control to keep firms opaque

do banks lend less in uncertain times we study the development of bank lending in the usa after four large jumps in uncertainty using an event study approach we find that more liquid banks slow down and lend less after a surge in uncertainty lending by smaller banks is also less responsive to increases in uncertainty which points to an increased importance of bank customer relationships for capitalization we find mixed evidence these heterogeneities across banks suggest that declines in bank lending following increases in uncertainty result at least partly from a reduced supply of bank loans

the behavior of consumer loan rates during the 1990 credit slowdown abstract this study re examines the 1990 credit slowdown by investigating the loan pricing behavior of commercial banks we find strong evidence that large undercapitalized banks contributed to the credit slowdown by charging consumers a higher than average loan rate relative to better capitalized institutions this disparity in lending exists even after accounting for bank funding costs thus we argue that there was a lending slowdown that occurred among large undercapitalized banks the reluctance to lend among undercapitalized banks is at least suggestive of behavior that is consistent with a credit crunch

economic news exchange rates and interest rates the paper esamines the post october 1979 response of exchange rates and interest rates to the new information contained in the first announcement of fifteen us macroeconomic series illarkets respond primarily to monetary news but also to news about the trade deficit domestic inflation and variables that reflect the state of the business cycle for all fifteen macroeconomic variables an increase decrease in interest rates is accompanied by an appreciation depreciation of the dollar which is consistent with models that stress price rigidity and absence of purchasing power parity the effect of economic news on asset prices has received increasing attention in the economic literature because an outcome of the efficient markets rational expectations hypothesis is that flesible asset prices change the moment new information about future fundamentals arrives in the market in the exchange rate literature the role of news has gained importance because structural models have failed to predict most of the variation in exchange rates during the 1970s see imeese and rogoff 1983 researchers were naturally led to investigate the types of news that make exchange rates so volatile and to utilize news in order to test which model of exchange rate determination is consistent with the floating eschange rate experience notable studies are those of dornbusch 1980 frenkel 1981 edwards 1982a b 1983 copeland 1984 and rose 1984 in this paper i also examine the effects of macroeconomic news on eschange rates but i adopt a different more direct strategy one that complements previous work avoids some of its shortcomings and promises interesting conclusions i examine the instantaneous response of exchange rates the moment a piece of economic news hits the market if one can isolate the exact time during a business day when news arrives it is straightforward to examine the response of exchange rates because financial data are continuously available the advantages of the present methodology are many first it is possible to identify the exact types of economic news and how they affect exchange rates second the simultaneity bias which plagues the previous literature on exchange rates and news is not present here the independent variables that represent news can be interpreted as causal the paper was presented at the 1985 meeting ofthe american economic association the author wishes to thank sebastian edwards r w hafer nicholas karamouzis andrew rose and two anonymous referees for helpful comments kim rupert of the money market services for providing the survey data soo kounne for able research assistance and barnard college for research support

financial development and financing constraints international evidence from the structural investment model this article provides evidence that financial development impacts growth by reducing financing constraints that would otherwise distort efficient allocation of investment the financing constraints are inferred from the investment euler equation by assuming that the firm s stochastic discount factor is a function of the firm s financial position specifically the stock of liquid assets the magnitude of the changes in the cost of capital is twice as large in a country with a low level of financial development as in a country with an average level of financial development the size effect business cycles and legal environment effects are also considered copyright 2003 oxford university press

the optimal research and development portfolio of low carbon energy technologies a study of china to support decision making for an optimal portfolio strategy for low carbon energy technology research and development r d this study proposes a dynamic two stage stochastic programming model taking into account both the uncertainty of technological change and damages of climate change based on china s economic and technology level and expert elicitation an r d investment portfolio strategy looking at three low carbon technologies carbon capture and storage ccs solar photovoltaic pv and nuclear including nine projects is investigated through the proposed model the optimized results show that the optimal r d technology portfolio is robust to different levels of risk in climate damage however the total social costs for the optimal r d technology portfolio is lowest in the medium risk of climate damage scenario under different opportunity costs the composition of the optimal r d portfolio varies however projects for each of the three technologies always constitute the optimal r d portfolio furthermore the implication is that a technology synergistic r d strategy is conducive to enhancing the level of co2 abatement and reducing the total social cost

the influence of fundamentals on exchange rates findings from analyses of news effects as we survey the literature of macroeconomic news in the foreign exchange market we can by now look back on nearly 30 years of research the first studies which analysed news effects on exchange rates were established in the early 1990s see for example dornbusch almost at the same time meese and rogoff published their influential paper revealing the forecasting inferiority in exchange rates of structural models against the random walk this finding has shocked the pillars of exchange rate economics and thus cast general suspicion on research focusing on fundamentals in this field the eventual rising popularity of event studies can partly be attributed to the re establishment of the raison d etre of exchange rate economics this work focuses on systematically surveying this literature with particular respect to its primary goal i e shedding light on the analytical value of fundamental research thus its major findings are first fundamental news does matter whereas non fundamental news matters to a lesser degree second news influences exchange rates via two separated channels i e incorporating common information into prices directly or indirectly based upon order flow third with a few exceptions the impact of fundamental news on exchange rates is fairly stable over time

testing for news in foreign exchange markets abstract traditional tests of the role of interest rate news on foreign exchange rates are analysed and found to be of little empirical value

a new assessment model of social cost of carbon and its situation analysis in china abstract the social cost of carbon scc represents monetary value of the damage caused by carbon dioxide emissions in climate change it is an important standard for the formulation of climate policy the uncertainty of carbon social cost is closely related to climate sensitivity damage parameters discount rate and so on previous studies have mainly focused on the consequences of climate change and the effect of social cost of carbon and welfare under different policies its research on the social cost of carbon has not included the evolution coefficient of carbon emissions and it has rarely introduced the climate disaster damage function into the process of solving the social cost of carbon this paper provides a simplified formula for the social cost of carbon the model has a nonlinear processing of the carbon circulation system which increases the nonlinear structure of co2 emission potential in addition the model modifies the climate damage function which adds additional losses from climate catastrophes this paper analyzes the combined effects of several key sensitivity parameters resulting in a fat tail distribution of social cost of carbon ultimately it is found that the mean scc of 2015 is 44 93 tco2 and the median scc is 15 9054 tco2 considering the possibility of extreme results and the impact of disaster risk loss on uncertain structure the joint effects of damage parameters climate sensitive parameters and discount rates make the social cost of carbon as much as 2 8 times the median and fat tail effect is obvious this brings uncertainty to the current emission reduction policies and abatement costs making it more difficult to assess cost effectiveness at last the paper evaluates the social cost of carbon under the base situation and low discount rate in china

the second moments matter the impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on the allocation of loanable funds abstract this paper investigates how variations in macroeconomic uncertainty distort commercial banks allocation of loanable funds by analyzing the dispersion of banks total loan to asset ratios over a quarter century period

climate change and optimal energy technology r d policy public policy response to global climate change presents a classic problem of decision making under uncertainty theoretical work has shown that explicitly accounting for uncertainty and learning in climate change can have a large impact on optimal policy especially technology policy however theory also shows that the specific impacts of uncertainty are ambiguous in this paper we provide a framework that combines economics and decision analysis to implement probabilistic data on energy technology research and development r d policy in response to global climate change we find that given a budget constraint the composition of the optimal r d portfolio is highly diversified and robust to risk in climate damages the overall optimal investment into technical change however does depend in a non monotonic way on the risk in climate damages finally we show that in order to properly value r d abatement must be included as a recourse decision

investment and the exchange rate an analysis with firm level panel data abstract this paper investigates the relationship between exchange rate fluctuations and the investment decisions of a sample of italian manufacturing firms the results support the view that a depreciation of the exchange rate has a positive effect on investment through the revenue channel and a negative effect through the cost channel the magnitude of these effects varies over time with changes in the firm s external orientation as measured by the share of foreign sales over total sales and the reliance on imported inputs consistent with the predictions of our theoretical framework the effect of exchange rate fluctuations on investment is stronger for firms with low monopoly power facing a high degree of import penetration in the domestic market and of a small size we also provide evidence that the degree of substitutability between domestically produced and imported inputs influences the effect through the expenditure side

a multi objective decision model for investment in energy savings and emission reductions in coal mining abstract coal mining companies should clearly be investing in energy savings and treatment technologies aimed at reducing both their energy consumption and their pollution levels in order to meet the requirements of government regulations relating to environmental protection however when considering the types of technical equipment to use and the timing of their investment these companies also need to consider their profits and the costs of such investment we therefore propose a multi objective mixed integer non linear programming mminlp model of investment in energy savings and emission reductions designed to handle this type of decision making problem given three objectives maximum profits minimal energy consumption and minimal pollution we develop a hybrid mixed coding particle swarm optimization and multi objective non dominated sorting genetic algorithm ii pso nsga ii to optimize the continuous and discrete decision variables as a means of helping companies to reach the optimum decision we also integrate the subtractive clustering multi criteria tournament decision gain analysis method sc mtd gam to select the best trade off solutions on the optimal pareto fronts finally we carry out a case study of investment decisions on energy savings and emission reductions in the zhenzhou coal industry group co ltd china with the results revealing that the proposed model can support decision making for energy savings and emission reductions in coal mining areas as compared with the nsga ii and non dominated sorting particle swarm optimization nspso algorithms the proposed pso nsga ii is found to have better convergence coverage and uniformity

corporate investment with financial constraints sensitivity of investment to funds from voluntary asset sales we examine the importance of financial constraints for firm investment by looking at the relationship between investment expenditures and proceeds from voluntary asset sales asset sales provide a cleaner indicator of liquidity than cash flows since it appears not to be positively correlated with investment opportunities the cross sectional differences in firm investment are examined using an endogenous switching regression model with unknown sample separation we find that cash obtained from asset sales is a significant determinant of corporate investment and that the sensitivity of investment to proceeds from asset sales is significantly stronger for firms that are likely to be financially constrained

global capital flows and financing constraints firms often cite financing constraints as one of their primary obstacles to investment global capital flows by bringing in scarce capital may ease the financing constraints of host country firms but if incoming foreign investors borrow heavily from domestic banks foreign direct investment may exacerbate financing constraints by crowding host country firms out of domestic capital markets combining a unique cross country firm level panel with time series data on restrictions on international transactions and capital flows harrison love and mcmillan find that different measures of global flows are associated with a reduction in firm level financing constraints first the authors show that one type of capital inflow foreign direct investment is associated with a reduction in financing constraints second they test whether restrictions on international transactions affects the financing constraints of firms the results suggest that only one type of restriction those on capital account transactions negatively affects firms financing constraints the authors also show that multinational firms are not financially constrained and do not appear to be sensitive to the level of foreign direct investment this implies that foreign direct investment eases financing constraints for non multinational firms finally the authors show that 1 foreign direct investment only eases financing constraints in the non g7 countries and 2 other kinds of flows such as portfolio investment have no impact on financing constraints

costly signal extraction and profit differentials in oligopolistic markets abstract empirical evidence indicates that there can be persistent profit differentials between firms in an industry we show that demand uncertainty and costly information acquisition by firms on market demand leads to significant profit differentials for intermediate levels of demand variability

short and long run credit constraints in french agriculture a directional distance function framework using expenditure constrained profit functions this empirical application investigates the eventual presence of credit constraints using a panel of french farmers the credit constrained profit maximization model proposed by fare grosskopf and lee is extended in three ways first we rephrase the model in terms of directional distance functions to allow duality with the profit function second we model credit constraints in the short run and investment constraints in the long run using short and long run profit functions third we lag the expenditure constraint one year to account for the separation between planning and production we find empirical evidence of credit and investment constraints financially unconstrained farmers are larger perform better and seem to benefit from a virtuous circle where access to financial markets allows better productive choices

financial intermediation and delegated monitoring this paper develops a theory of financial intermediation based on minimizing the cost of monitoring information which is useful for resolving incentive problems between borrowers and lenders it presents a characterization of the costs of providing incentives for delegated monitoring by a financial intermediary diversification within an intermediary serves to reduce these costs even in a risk neutral economy the paper presents some more general analysis of the effect of diversification on resolving incentive problems in the environment assumed in the model debt contracts with costly bankruptcy are shown to be optimal the analysis has implications for the portfolio structure and capital structure of intermediaries

exchange rate market efficiency and new information abstract this paper uses a multi currency approach to analyze the relationship between forward exchange rates future spot rates and new information the empirical results tend to support the hypothesis that the exchange rate can be expressed as a function of factors known in advance and news

explicit lagrange multiplier for firms facing a debt ceiling constraint abstract this paper provides the explicit expression of investment facing a binding debt ceiling and the explicit expression of the lagrange multipliers related to the binding debt ceiling constraint this result allows us to check for misspecification of the parameterizations of these lagrange multipliers used in euler investment equations tests during the 1990 s

no money no honey financial versus knowledge and demand constraints on innovation the paper adds to the literature on the barriers to innovation in two ways first we assess comparatively what mostly constrains firms ability to translate investment in innovation activity into new products and processes whether it is mainly finance as most of the literature would suggest or whether it is mostly knowledge and market related aspects second we suggest a method to correct for the sample selection bias that often affects empirical contributions to this scholarship by filtering out firms that are not interested in innovation from those that struggle to engage in it we obtain a relevant sample of potential innovators which allows us to analyse the comparative effect of financial and non financial barriers on innovation success we find that demand side factors particularly concentrated market structure and lack of demand are as important as financial constraints in determining firms innovation failures this evidence redirects attention from financial to non financial barriers by considering traditional demand market structure and regulation factors involved in reduced firm innovation performance the empirical analysis is based on an unbalanced panel of firm level data from four waves of the uk community innovation survey cis between 2002 and 2010 merged with data from the uk business structure database

banks regulatory buffers liquidity networks and monetary policy transmission based on a quarterly regulatory dataset for german banks from 1999 to 2004 this paper analyzes the effects of banks regulatory capital on the transmission of monetary policy in a system of liquidity networks the dynamic panel regression results provide evidence in favor of the bank capital channel theory banks holding less regulatory capital and less interbank liquidity react more restrictively to a monetary tightening than their peers

development and utilization of energy related technologies economic performance and the role of policy instruments the present study investigates the effects of energy related technologies on economic performance at firm level we distinguish clearly between adoption and use of energy related technologies process innovation in the broad sense and product innovation in energy related fields we take into consideration four energy related policy instruments and expected demand for energy related new products and services we investigate the possibility of indirect effects of policy on performance via adoption or innovation by interacting adoption and innovation variables with policy instrument dummies we test our hypotheses not only for the pooled data but also separately for the three countries austria germany switzerland that are taken into consideration in this study we find a positive direct effect of investment expenditures for energy related technologies on labour productivity that measure intensity of adoption of energy related technologies and a positive indirect effect of energy taxes via investment in energy related technologies further we find positive direct and indirect effects of regulation standards and voluntary agreements via the adoption of production related technologies and for technologies for the generation of renewal energy sources we find neither direct nor indirect effects of the sales of innovative energy related products that measure product innovation in energy related products on labour productivity no differences among the three countries could be detected with respect to investment in energy related technologies and sales of innovative energy related products the indirect effects of regulation and standards and voluntary agreements can be primarily traced back to german firms

are empirical measures of macroeconomic uncertainty alike there is a plethora of time series measures of uncertainty for inflation and real output growth in empirical studies but little is known whether they are comparable to the uncertainty measure reported by individual forecasters in the survey of professional forecasters are these two measures of uncertainty inherently distinct this paper shows that compared with many uncertainty proxies produced by time series models the use of real time data with fixed sample recursive estimation of an asymmetric bivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model yields inflation uncertainty estimates which resemble the survey measure there is however overwhelming evidence that many of the time series measures of growth uncertainty exceed the level of uncertainty obtained from survey measure our results highlight the relative merits of using different methods in modelling macroeconomic uncertainty which are useful for empirical researchers

investment in risky r d programs in the face of climate uncertainty we analyze how the socially optimal technology rd and that uncertainty in damages interacts with uncertainty in the returns to rd and r d that reduces the emissions to output ratio and argue that this is a good representation of r d into fossil fuel technologies for r d programs into non carbon technologies optimal investment is higher in riskier programs our empirical model indicates that the optimal investment in a risky program is about 3 1 2 times larger than in a program with certain returns for r d programs aimed at reducing emissions in fossil fuel based technologies our results show that qualitatively investment is higher in less risky programs under most uncertain damage scenarios our empirical model shows however that the risk profile of fossil fuel based r d programs generally has little quantitative impact on optimal investment the exception is that when the probability of a catastrophe inducing full abatement is very high investment is about twice as high in risky programs compared to programs with certain returns

the impact of monetary regime changes some exchange rate evidence abstract lucas has argued that coefficient changes can be explained by changing expectations caused by the policy regime shifts this paper provides evidence consistent with the lucas critique using an efficient markets news framework kalman filter results show that surprise relative u s monetary expansion is associated both with periods of u s depreciation and appreciation i show that variables representing changes in monetary policy regimes can explain a substantial fraction of the movements in the time varying parameter

flexible exchange rates prices and the role of news lessons from the 1970s recent experience with flexible exchange rate systems has led to renewed interest in the operation of foreign exchange markets as reflected in many recent studies of the principal determinants of exchange rates the 1970s witnessed the dramatic alteration of the international monetary system from a regime of pegged exchange rates which prevailed for about a quarter of a century since the bretton woods conference into a regime of flexible though managed rates as a consequence of the emergence of the new legal and economic system traders national governments and international organisations were confronted with new economic problems choices and instruments during the 1970s ex change rates fluctuated widely and inflation rates accelerated the international monetary system had to accommodate extraordinarily large oil related shocks which affected trade flows in goods and assets huge oil payments had to be recycled uncertainties concerning future developments in international politics reached new heights and the prospects for the world economy got gloomier these developments placed unprecedented pressures on the markets for foreign exchange as well as on other asset markets they were associated with a large slide in the value of the us dollar and resulted in speeding up the creation of new institutions like the european monetary system which provided the formal framework for the management of exchange rates among members

understanding the accumulation of bank and thrift reserves during the u s financial crisis abstract the level of aggregate excess reserves held by u s depository institutions increased significantly at the peak of the 2007 2009 financial crisis although the amount of aggregate reserves is determined almost entirely by the policy initiatives of the central bank that act on the asset side of its balance sheet the motivations of individual banks in accumulating reserves differ and respond to the impact of changes in the economic environment on individual institutions we undertake a systematic analysis of this massive accumulation of excess reserves using bank level data for more than 7000 commercial banks and almost 1000 savings institutions during the u s financial crisis we propose a testable stochastic model of reserves determination when interest is paid on reserves which we estimate using bank level data and censored regression methods we find evidence primarily of a precautionary motive for reserves accumulation with some notable heterogeneity in the response of reserves accumulation to external and internal factors of the largest banks compared with smaller banks we combine propensity score matching and a difference in differences approach to determine whether the beneficiaries of the capital purchase program of the troubled asset relief program accumulated less cash including reserves than non beneficiaries contrary to anecdotal evidence we find that banks that participated in the program accumulated less cash including reserves than nonparticipants in the initial quarters after the capital injection

zeros and lumps in investment empirical evidence on irreversibilities and nonconvexities the objective of this paper is to investigate if and how capital adjustment departs from the smooth pattern implied by standard model based on convex adjustment costs using norwegian micro data we start by documenting the intermittent and lumpy nature of investment rates we then present two pieces of econometric evidence on these issues first we estimate a discrete hazard model to determine the probability of having an episode of high investment conditional on the length of the interval from the last high investment episode second we estimate a switching regression model that allows for the response of the investment rate to fundamentals to differ across regimes in both cases we investigate the aggregate implications of our results

r d investment strategy for climate change abstract the economic costs of stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations over the coming century depend critically on the development of new technologies in the energy sector our research and development r d investment strategy is the control variable for technology availability this paper proposes an analytic framework for determining optimal r d investment allocation and presents some numerical results to demonstrate the implementation of the methodology the value of technological advance in three targeted areas fossil based generation renewables and carbon capture and storage is represented by the increase in expected welfare in the presence of an emissions policy constraint of initially uncertain stringency r d expenditure increases the probability of advance optimal investment is determined by its relationship with success probability which is assumed to exhibit decreasing returns to scale relative to the value of success while the numerical results are speculative the paper offers insights into the nature of an optimal technology strategy for addressing climate change

innovation system strengths and weaknesses in progressing sustainable technology the case of swedish biorefinery development based on the combination of economic challenges and uncertain policy conditions in the united states european union and elsewhere the development of advanced biorefineries has progressed slower than anticipated this has delayed the transition to a more sustainable and less carbon intensive economy in this article we adopt the technological innovation system tis approach to analyze advanced biorefinery development in sweden a front runner country in current development the analysis highlights a number of system strengths e g long term research funding significant research infrastructure strong actor networks that have contributed to developing the swedish tis but also important system weaknesses e g weak coordination among ministries lack of industrial absorptive capacity unclear roles inhibiting it the article highlights a combination of four policy measures that build on the system strengths to address the system weaknesses a the implementation of a deployment policy for creating domestic niche markets b improved policy timing and more structured coordination among different governmental agencies c the provision of stronger incentives for mature industries to invest in rd and d improved organization and financing of existing research infrastructure in addition to the empirical contribution the article contributes with novel insights into the tis framework by highlighting the dynamics between system strengths and weaknesses and suggests that system strengths should be better emphasized in future tis studies

the relation between firm growth and q with multiple capital goods theory and evidence from panel data on japanese firms we derive from a model of investment with multiple capital goods a one to one relation between the growth rate of the capital aggregate and the stock market based q we estimate the growth q relation using a panel of japanese manufacturing firms taking into account the endogeneity of q identification is achieved by combining the theoretical structure of the q model and an assumed serial correlation structure of the technology shock which is the error term in the growth q equation for early years of our sample cash flow has significant explanatory power over and above q the significance of cash flow disappears for more recent years for the heavy industry when japanese capital markets was liberalized the estimated q coefficient implies that the adjustment cost is less than a half of gross profits net of the adjustment cost

inter market efficiency and the foreign exchange market abstract this paper extends previous tests of weak form efficiency in foreign exchange markets by a testing the efficiency of trades involving a combination of forward markets and by b using data with a daily frequency we show the canada u s forward exchange market to be weak form efficient during the period 1972 to 1975 inclusive

the benefits of lending relationships evidence from small business data this paper empirically examines how ties between a firm and its creditors affect the availability and cost of funds to the firm we analyze data collected in a survey of small firms by the small business administration the primary benefit of building close ties with an institutional creditor is that the availability of financing increases we find smaller effects on the price of credit attempts to widen the circle of relationships by borrowing from multiple lenders increases the price and reduces the availability of credit in sum relationships are valuable and appear to operate more through quantities rather than prices

monetary instability the predictability of prices and the allocation of investment an empirical investigation using u k panel data it is often argued that monetary instability reduces the informational content of market signals and thereby hinders the efficient allocation of investment in this paper we use a signal extraction framework to give empirical content to this idea in particular we show why this framework predicts that as monetary uncertainty decreases the cross sectional distribution of investment widens we then explore this hypothesis using panel data information for uk companies over twenty years our data generally support the view that monetary instability may affect investment allocation through its effect on the predictability of prices this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

the relationship between net interest margin and noninterest income using a system estimation approach abstract this paper examines the determinants of bank net interest margin nim and non traditional banking activities nii a system estimation approach is employed to control for the simultaneity between nim and nii for commercial banks in a group of 28 financially liberalized countries during the period between 1997 and 2004 we find a statistically significant negative relationship between nim and nii for the period between 1997 and 2002 a generally positive but statistically insignificant association between nim and nii is found for the subsequent period 2003 2004 banks increasing involvement in non traditional activities is negatively correlated with risk adjusted profitability measures in the former subperiod suggesting no obvious diversification benefits however the share of noninterest income is positively related to the return on assets roa and the return on equity roe for the latter subsample

aggregate volatility and international dynamics the role of credit supply abstract changes in country specific aggregate volatility are positively correlated with the current account but negatively correlated with investment output and credit flows an international real business cycle model with time varying aggregate uncertainty through a precautionary savings channel can account for the positive correlation but implies counterfactual comovements for the other variables adding a credit supply channel with default and lenders exposed to aggregate risk allows the model to match all the facts higher volatility contracts credit supply and lowers investment and output the current account turns to a surplus because savings increase but also because investment collapses

the damage costs of climate change toward more comprehensive calculations it is argued that estimating the damage costs of a certain benchmark climate change is not sufficient what is needed are cost functions and confidence intervals although these are contained in the integrated models and their technical manuals this paper brings them into the open in order to stimulate discussion after briefly reviewing the benchmark climate change damage costs region specific cost functions are presented which distinguish tangible from intangible losses and the losses due to a changing climate from those due to a changed climate furthermore cost functions are assumed to be quadratic as an approximation of the unknown but presumably convex functions results from the damage module of the integrated climate economy model fund are presented next uncertainties are incorporated and expected damages are calculated it is shown that because of convex loss functions and right skewed uncertain ties the risk premium is substantial calling for more action than analysis based on best guess estimates the final section explores some needs for further scientific research

advanced solar r d combining economic analysis with expert elicitations to inform climate policy the relationship between r d investments and technical change is inherently uncertain in this paper we combine economics and decision analysis to incorporate the uncertainty of technical change into climate change policy analysis we present the results of an expert elicitation on the prospects for technical change in advanced solar photovoltaics we then use the results of the expert elicitations as inputs to the minicam integrated assessment model to derive probabilistic information about the impacts of r d investments on the costs of emissions abatement

bank systemic risk and macroeconomic shocks canadian and u s evidence abstract this paper investigates how banks as a group react to macroeconomic risk and uncertainty more specifically it examines the relationship between bank systemic risk and changes and disruptions in economic conditions adopting the methodology of beaudry et al 2001 we introduce a new estimation procedure based on egarch to refine the framework developed by baum et al 2002 baum et al 2004 baum et al 2009 and quagliariello 2007 quagliariello 2009 and we analyze the relationship in the current industry context i e in the context of market based banking our results confirm that banks tend to behave more homogeneously vis a vis macroeconomic uncertainty in particular we find that both the cross sectional dispersion of loans to assets and the cross sectional dispersion of non interest income share shrink during slow growth episodes and particularly during financial crises when the resilience of the banking system is at its lowest more importantly our main findings indicate that the cross sectional dispersion of loans to assets has increased in the last decade whereas the cross sectional dispersion of non interest income share appears to be more volatile and sensitive to macroeconomic shocks

the reaction of exchange rates to economic news this paper examines the short run responses of spot exchange rates to several types of economic news survey data are used to divide economic announcements into expected and unexpected components with the latter measuring news the results indicate that exchange rates are systematically related to unexpected money announcements after the october 1979 switch in federal reserve operating procedures but not before this response does not appear to have changed however after the october 1982 federal reserve regime change short run exchange rate movements are not systematically related to news on inflation or real activity

investment cash flow sensitivities credit rationing and financing constraints in small and medium sized firms the controversy on whether investment cash flow sensitivity is a good indicator of financing constraints is still unsolved we apply a comprehensive approach by cross validating our analysis with both balance sheet and qualitative data on self declared credit rationing and financing constraints on a sample of mainly small and medium sized firms our qualitative information shows that self declared credit rationing is weakly related to both traditional a priori factors such as firm size age and location and lenders rational decisions taken on the basis of their credit risk models we use the qualitative information on firms which were denied additional credit to provide evidence relevant to the investment cash flow sensitivity debate the evidence shows that self declared credit rationing significantly discriminates between firms which possess or not such sensitivity while a priori criteria do not the same result does not apply when we consider the wider group of financially constrained firms which do not seem to have a higher investment cash flow sensitivity supporting the more recent empirical evidence in this direction