capacity expansion contraction of a facility with demand augmentation dynamics we analyze the cost effective addition or removal of capacity from a facility governed by demand augmentation dynamics that is if the demand for goods or services exceeds the planned capacity of the facility during any period of a multiperiod planning horizon then additional capacity must be introduced within that period to meet the deficit the paper obtains an optimal management strategy that minimizes the sum of capital labor maintenance and underpro vision costs for n consecutive periods in the face of uncertain demands dynamic programming is used to demonstrate that under certain conditions on the cost functions an inventory like s s policy is optimal appropriately interpreted to define the removal as well as the augmentation of capacity the threshold levels s and s can be evaluated for each period without a costly search procedure in addition we show how to calculate various quantities of interest associated with the optimal policy

optimal capacity expansion over an infinite horizon the problem of choosing an optimal initial capacity expansion from a finite number of durable facility sizes is affected by potential future expansion decisions as we consider such expansions over longer and longer study horizons the optimal initial facility choice can fluctuate due to end of study effects we discuss an algorithm that will determine for arbitrary deterministic demand profiles how long a horizon is sufficient to reach stability in the first facility choice moreover it is shown that this first choice is the optimal first choice for the infinite horizon problem we also establish an explicit analytical formula for a study horizon guaranteed to provide a first facility size that followed by an infinite horizon expansion strategy will attain a discounted cost within a predetermined maximal error of the optimal infinite horizon cost

international comparisons of productivity and its determinants in the natural gas industry the objective of this paper was to evaluate the performance of the natural gas industry using an inter country comparison of productivity level and its determinants three method ologies multilateral tornqvist productivity analysis managerial index system analysis and non parametric efficiency analysis are employed to make a methodological cross checking and to perform diversified analysis from the empirical results we identified the level and growth rate of productivity of individual firms the results also indicated that the korean gas industry has shown a relatively low level of productivity from the results of managerial performance index analysis we found that during the recent years of regulatory changes the final price of gas has decreased dramatically while the productivity growth has not been enough to offset the effect of decreased output price which has resulted in decreased profit we also examine the extent of the allocative scale and managerial efficiency as source components of the overall efficiency based on the performance of best practiced with the results of this study an effective policy measure could be established to improve the productivity and the overall managerial performance in the natural gas industry q 1999 elsevier science b v all rights reserved

a path dependent contingent claims approach to capacity investments this note presents a contingent claims approach to strategic capacity planning we develop models for capacity choice and expansion decisions in a single firm environment where investment is irreversible and demand is uncertain these models illustrate specifically the relevance of path dependent options analysis to planning capacity investments when the firm adopts demand tracking or average capacity strategies it is argued that asian average type real options can explain hysteresis phenomena in addition to providing superior control of assets in place

multi resource investment strategies operational hedging under demand uncertainty abstract consider a firm that markets multiple products each manufactured using several resources representing various types of capital and labor and a linear production technology the firm faces uncertain product demand and has the option to dynamically readjust its resource investment levels thereby changing the capacities of its linear manufacturing process the cost to adjust a resource level either up or down is assumed to be linear the model developed here explicitly incorporates both capacity investment decisions and production decisions and is general enough to include reversible and irreversible investment the product demand vectors for successive periods are assumed to be independent and identically distributed the optimal investment strategy is determined with a multi dimensional newsvendor model using demand distributions a technology matrix prices product contribution margins and marginal investment costs our analysis highlights an important conceptual distinction between deterministic and stochastic environments the optimal investment strategy in our stochastic model typically involves some degree of capacity imbalance which can never be optimal when demand is known

when does the prime rate change abstract we study the frequency of prime rate changes we model the prime rate as a time series variable that can be changed only at some cost this yields a logit model in which the probability of a prime rate change is a function of market variables we test this model using data from a micro data set that gives the dating of prime rate changes the results indicate that adjustment costs are important to the prime rate adjustment process and that changes in exogenous variables have a significantly larger effect on the probability of a prime rate increase than decrease

a real options approach to labour shifts planning under different service level targets abstract firms that experience uncertainty in demand as well as challenging service levels face among other things the problem of managing employee shift numbers decisions regarding shift numbers often involve significant expansions or reductions in capacity in response to changes in demand in this paper we quantify the impact of treating shifts in workforce expansion as investments while considering required service level improvements the decision to increase shifts whether by employing temporary workers or hiring permanent employees is one that involves significant risks traditional theories typically consider reversible investments and thus do not capture the idiosyncrasies involved in shift management in which costs are not fully reversible in our study by using real options theory we quantify managers ability to consider this irreversibility aiming to enable them to make shift decisions under conditions of uncertainty with the maximum level of flexibility our model aims to help managers make more accurate decisions with regard to shift expansion under service level targets and to defer commitment until future uncertainties can be at least partially resolved overall our investigation contributes to studies on the time required to introduce labour shift changes while keeping the value of service level improvements in mind

interest rate pass through and monetary transmission evidence from individual financial institutions retail rates official interest rate changes should influence short rates on money market instruments and retail products such as deposit accounts and mortgages but complete pass through is often taken for granted this paper provides a theoretical and econometric framework for assessing the evidence for this assumption using seventeen years of monthly data for rates on thirteen deposit and mortgage products offered by individual uk financial institutions the methodology allows for asymmetries and non linearities in adjustment and the results show that the speed of adjustment in retail rates depends on whether the perceived gap between retail and base rates is widening or narrowing

scale economies and optimal size in the swiss gas distribution sector this paper studies the cost structure of swiss gas distribution utilities several econometric models are applied to a panel of 26 companies over 1996 2000 our main objective is to estimate the optimal size and scale economies of the industry and to study their possible variation with respect to network characteristics the results indicate the presence of unexploited scale economies however very large companies in the sample and companies with a disproportionate mixture of output and density present an exception furthermore the estimated optimal size for majority of companies in the sample has shown a value far greater than the actual size suggesting remarkable efficiency gains by reorganization of the industry the results also highlight the effect of customer density on optimal size networks with higher density or greater complexity have a lower optimal size

optimal capacity investment decisions with two sided fixed capacity adjustment costs in this paper we consider the optimal management of capacity when a firm faces fixed costs and variable costs to purchase capacity the firm can also salvage capacity and receive a variable value per unit capacity salvaged but faces a different fixed cost in this case each period the firm faces a stochastic demand and maintenance costs for capacity that it decides to keep the firm would thus like to decide how much capacity it should purchase or salvage each period we introduce a new concept which we call k1 k2 concavity and show that the profit to go function satisfies this property this enables us to characterize the structure of an optimal policy which is rather complex consisting of multiple regions in which different decisions are made we show how special cases of this problem e g no fixed costs expansion or contraction not allowed reduce to well known results and how k1 k2 concavity is a generalization of concavity k concavity and sym k concavity we also show how different lead times for purchasing or salvaging capacity can be integrated into the model finally we extend the model to the case where demand is markov modulated and a portion of capacity can deteriorate in each period

technological expectations and adoption of improved technology abstract attention is focused upon the adoption demand rather than the creation supply of new technology which improves from time to time based on the expected flow of technological progress over which the firm demander has no control it must decide either to adopt the current best available technology or to postpone adoption the distinguishing features of the model are that more than one technological innovation is anticipated and expectations about the likelihood of such innovations are revised as time passes since the last innovation our analysis shows that the firm will adopt the current best practice if its technological lag exceeds a certain threshold moreover as time passes without new technological advances it may become profitable to purchase a technology that has been available even though it was not profitable to do so in the past

asymmetric pass through and risk of interest rate an empirical exploration of taiwan and hong kong this study employs the asymmetric threshold cointegration test suggested by enders and siklos 2001 and creates asymmetric ec egarch 1 1 m model to investigate the pass through of money market rate to banking retail rates in taiwan and hong kong it further explores the impact of interest volatility on interest rates over the period of february 1988 to december 2004 we find that the interest pass through mechanism of these two markets is noncomplete in addition based on the asymmetric threshold cointegration test we discover the existence of asymmetric cointegration relationship between retail rates and market rate in both markets in particular while employing asymmetric ec egarch 1 1 m model to test for the influence of money market rate adjustment and volatility on retail rates in short run we find robust evidence that there exist the upward rigidity in deposit rate and the downward rigidity in lending rate in both taiwan and hong kong this finding supports the hypothesis of the collusiv

investment and capacity choice under uncertain demand this paper extends the real options literature by discussing an investment problem where a firm has to determine optimal investment timing and optimal capacity choice at the same time under conditions of irreversible investment expenditures and uncertainty in future demand after the project is installed with a certain maximum capacity this capacity is fixed as an upper boundary to the output and cannot be adjusted later on it turns out that in the framework of this once and for all decision uncertainty in future demand leads to an increase in optimal installed capacity but on the other hand it causes investment to be delayed to an extent that even small uncertainty makes waiting and accumulation of further information the optimal decision for large ranges of demand limiting the capacity which may be installed weakens this extreme effect of uncertainty

taxes and bank capital structure this paper shows that a reduction in tax discrimination between debt and equity funding leads to better capitalized financial institutions the paper exploits exogenous variation in the tax treatment of debt and equity created by the introduction of a tax shield for equity the results demonstrate that a more equal treatment of debt and equity increases bank capital ratios driven by an increase in common equity the change also leads to a significant reduction in risk taking for ex ante low capitalized banks overall the findings suggest that tax shields could be a valuable and innovative policy tool for bank regulators

integrated capacity and inventory management with capacity acquisition lead times we model a make to stock production system that utilizes permanent and contingent capacity to meet non stationary stochastic demand where a constant lead time is associated with the acquisition of contingent capacity we determine the structure of the optimal solution concerning both the operational decisions of integrated inventory and flexible capacity management and the tactical decision of determining the optimal permanent capacity level furthermore we show that the inventory either before or after production the pipeline contingent capacity the contingent capacity to be ordered and the permanent capacity are economic substitutes we also show that the stochastic demand variable and the optimal contingent capacity acquisition decisions are economic complements finally we perform numerical experiments to evaluate the value of utilizing contingent capacity and to study the effects of capacity acquisition lead time providing useful managerial insights

demand modeling of stochastic product diffusion over the life cycle abstract planning during the product life cycle plc poses a number of challenges for managers due to the pace of change and uncertainties in the marketplace the ability to better understand predict and make decisions based on manifestations of demand forms a set of important operational problems that ultimately affect the profitability of enterprises this paper models the stochastic diffusion of a product in the market as a geometric brownian motion gbm process that has a time varying drift rate the model is calibrated such that model parameters are able to feature different product types and diffusion conditions imperfect information on the expected peak demand is treated as model uncertainty and a bayesian approach is employed to update knowledge on it the demand model demonstrates robust performance over a wide range of conditions despite model uncertainty it provides both qualitative and quantitative information for manufacturers and service providers to design strategies for stochastic plc conditions as well as dynamic production planning

market structure and the nature of price rigidity evidence from the market for consumer deposits panel data on consumer bank deposit interest rates reveal asymmetric impacts of market concentration on the dynamic adjustment of prices to shocks banks in concentrated markets are slower to raise interest rates on deposits in response to rising market interest rates but are faster to reduce them in response to declining market interest rates thus banks with market power skim off surplus on movements in both directions since deposit interest rates are inversely related to the price charged by banks for deposits the results suggest that downward price rigidity and upward price flexibility are a consequence of market concentration

sluggish adjustment of interest rates and credit rationing an application of unit root testing and error correction modelling a model with credit rationing due to asymmetric information is combined with a marginal cost pricing approach to bank behaviour the resulting model allows for explanation of the adjustment of deposit and loan rates to changes of the money market rate and is estimated in error correction form johansen s procedure is used to test the hypotheses the hypothesis that deposit and loan rates do not adapt immediately to changes in the money market rate cannot be rejected based on german monthly data the observation that loan rates react even slower than deposit rates can be rationalized by the effects of asymmetric information

an analysis of the transmission mechanism of monetary policy in ireland this paper examines the impact of a monetary policy shock on output prices and the exchange rate for ireland during its participation in the ems the paper draws on recent techniques used in the structural vector autoregression literature results suggest that an exogenous temporary increase in the short term interest rate leads to a decline in output and prices with the latter responding more sluggishly in addition a higher interest rate leads to an immediate appreciation of the domestic exchange rate and a subsequent depreciation of the currency exchange rate or forward bias puzzle which are prevalent in other studies are not found the robustness of these results is checked under a number of alternative identifications schemes

forecast frequency in rolling horizon hedging heuristics for capacity expansion this paper describes a simulation study of the effect of forecast revisions and hedges against demand uncertainty in a rolling horizon heuristic for capacity expansion the model is based on data collected in the utilities division of a large chemical manufacturing plant a seasonal integrated moving average model for the demand is used to generate forecasts while capacity additions are determined by applying a simple timing rule to various hedges around the forecast the simulation results indicate that hedging forecasts by their prediction limits rather than a fixed buffer significantly reduces undercapacity at the expense of a small increase in capacity cost the prediction limit hedge is more robust to delays in reforecasting

economies of scale in norwegian electricity distribution a quantile regression approach in this article we investigate scale economies in norwegian electricity distribution companies using a quantile regression approach to the best of our knowledge this is the first attempt to apply this estimation technique when analysing scale economies we estimate the cost elasticities of the two output components network length and number of customers to calculate returns to scale our results show large potential of scale economies particularly for the smallest companies we also find that returns to scale is increasing over time these findings have important implications for policymakers when they are deciding the structure of the industry in the future

capacity pricing and production under supply and demand uncertainties with an application in agriculture abstract we consider capacitated joint lot sizing and pricing problems when supply and a price sensitive demand are uncertain in cases where there is excess capacity the decision maker has the option to rent her capacity we model the case where price and production quantity are determined before the yield is realized joint decisions as well as the case where the price is determined after the yield is known sequential decisions in the joint decisions case we introduce the concept of expected demand fill rate elasticity and characterize the conditions in which a one sided production and pricing policy is optimal we extend the results to the case when there is a fixed production cost and show that a two sided production and pricing policy is optimal we also investigate the conditions under which it is optimal for the decision maker to rent her capacity in addition we look at the case in which the decision maker is risk averse and analyze the effect of the risk attitude on the optimal price and production quantity we extend our model to the multi period case and the case where there is a lead time to acquire new capacity we show that a one sided production pricing and capacity planning policy is optimal in this situation as well we apply our model to the agricultural sector and present numerical examples using data from the california almond industry

the stationary distribution of a stochastic clearing process this research grew out of an investigation of utilization in capacity expansion the utilization at any time is the demand divided by the capacity when there is uncertainty about the evolution of demand it is appropriate to model the demand as a stochastic process and thus the utilization also becomes a stochastic process it was found that a utilization stochastic process associated with exponentially growing stochastic demand is closely related to the stochastic clearing processes introduced and investigated by stidham interest in the impact of uncertainty on utilization led to this study of the impact of uncertainty on the stationary distribution of a stochastic clearing process stidham showed for a large class of clearing processes that the stationary distribution is never the uniform distribution which is characteristic of deterministic models with continuous linear input here it is shown for a larger class of clearing processes that the stationary distribution is always stochastically less than or equal to the uniform distribution in the sense of second order stochastic dominance characterized by the expected value of all nondecreasing concave functions for various special cases stronger stochastic order relations are established for a related capacity expansion model it is shown that greater uncertainty lowers the expected utilization

capacity decisions for high tech products with obsolescence abstract modern high tech products experience rapid obsolescence capacity investments must be recouped during the brief product lifecycle during which prices fall continuously we employ a multiplicative demand model that incorporates price declines due to both market heterogeneity and product obsolescence and study a monopolistic firm s capacity decision we investigate profit concavity and characterize the structure of the optimal capacity solution moreover for products with negligible variable costs we identify two distinct strategies for capacity choice demarcated by an obsolescence rate threshold that relates both to market factors and capacity costs finally we empirically test the demand model by analyzing shipping and pricing data from the pc microprocessor market

financial frictions and policy cooperation a case with monopolistic banking and staggered loan contracts abstract do financial frictions call for cross border policy cooperation this paper investigates the implications of financial frictions in the form of staggered loan contracts supplied by monopolistic banks for monetary policy using the linear quadratic lq framework we show that policy cooperation yields long run gains in addition to gains from stabilizing inefficient fluctuations over the business cycle as usually found in models with price rigidities the ramsey optimal steady states differ between cooperation and noncooperation such gains from cooperation arise irrespective of capital account liberalization

testing static oligopoly models conduct and cost in the sugar industry 1890 1914 we explore the widespread methodology of using demand information to infer market conduct and unobserved cost components under the hypothesis of static oligopoly behavior direct measures of marginal cost and conduct indicating small market power serve as benchmarks the more competitive models yield better cost estimates the best cost estimates occur when conduct is estimated as a free parameter which in turn only slightly underestimates our direct measure it also tracks the decline in market power accompanying the industry s structural changes the methodology is largely validated although partial cost information can improve its predictive power conclusions are robust to demand function

optimal production planning with emissions trading emissions trading is a market based mechanism for curbing emissions and it has been implemented in europe north america and several other parts of the world to study its impact on production planning we develop a dynamic production model where a manufacturer produces a single product to satisfy random market demands the manufacturer has access to both a green and a regular production technology of which the former is more costly but yields fewer emissions to comply with the emissions regulations the manufacturer can buy or sell the allowances in each period via forward contracts in an outside market with stochastic trading prices while needing to keep a nonnegative allowance account balance at the end of the planning horizon we first derive several important structural properties of the model and based upon them we characterize the optimal emissions trading and production policies that minimize the manufacturer s expected total discounted cost in particular the optimal emissions trading pol

a capacitated production inventory model with periodic demand for a single product single stage capacitated production inventory model with stochastic periodic cyclic demand we find the optimal policy and characterize some of its properties we study the finite horizon the discounted infinite horizon and the infinite horizon average cases a simulation based optimization method is provided to compute the optimal parameters based on a numerical study several insights into the model are also provided

strategic facility location a review abstract facility location decisions are a critical element in strategic planning for a wide range of private and public firms the ramifications of siting facilities are broadly based and long lasting impacting numerous operational and logistical decisions high costs associated with property acquisition and facility construction make facility location or relocation projects long term investments to make such undertakings profitable firms plan for new facilities to remain in place and in operation for an extended time period thus decision makers must select sites that will not simply perform well according to the current system state but that will continue to be profitable for the facility s lifetime even as environmental factors change populations shift and market trends evolve finding robust facility locations is thus a difficult task demanding that decision makers account for uncertain future events the complexity of this problem has limited much of the facility location literature to simplified static and deterministic models although a few researchers initiated the study of stochastic and dynamic aspects of facility location many years ago most of the research dedicated to these issues has been published in recent years in this review we report on literature which explicitly addresses the strategic nature of facility location problems by considering either stochastic or dynamic problem characteristics dynamic formulations focus on the difficult timing issues involved in locating a facility or facilities over an extended horizon stochastic formulations attempt to capture the uncertainty in problem input parameters such as forecast demand or distance values the stochastic literature is divided into two classes that which explicitly considers the probability distribution of uncertain parameters and that which captures uncertainty through scenario planning a wide range of model formulations and solution approaches are discussed with applications ranging across numerous industries

asymmetric adjustment of commercial bank interest rates evidence from malaysia and singapore abstract this paper examines the rigidity of commercial bank interest rates using evidence from singapore and malaysia an asymmetric error correction technique is used to test whether mean adjustment lags are different when retail rates are above or below their equilibrium levels it is concluded in both countries that the mean adjustment lag is shorter when the deposit rate is above its equilibrium than when it is below its equilibrium using the framework of hannan and berger 1991 this finding implies that the hypothesis of collusion cannot be rejected

simultaneous capacity and production management of short life cycle produce to stock goods under stochastic demand this paper derives the optimal simultaneous capacity and production plan for a shortlife cycle produce to stock good under stochastic demand capacity can be reduced as well as added at exogenously set unit prices in both cases studied with and without carryover of unsold units a target interval policy is optimal there is a usually different target interval for each period such that capacity should be changed as little as possible to bring the level available into that interval our contribution in the case of no carry over is a detailed characterization of the target intervals assuming demands increase stochastically at the beginning of the life cycle and decrease thereafter in the case of carry over we establish the general result and show that capacity and inventory are economic substitutes the target intervals decrease in the initial stock level and the optimal unconstrained base stock level decreases in the capacity level in both cases optimal service rates are not necessarily constant over time a numerical example illustrates the results

intertemporal optimization of the coal production capacity in china in terms of uncertain demand economy environment and energy security abstract as coal is the main energy source in china coal overcapacity and undercapacity have negative impacts on the economy environment and energy security to reveal the optimal production capacity opc an intertemporal optimization model under uncertainty is established by a combined dynamic programming influence factor scenario analysis monte carlo method dp if sa mc the opcs in 1990 2025 are solved to minimize the expected cost to the economy and environment driven by the production capacity pc under energy security in addition we define and calculate the pc deviation pcd or the deviation of the actual pc apc from the opc the results show that compared with the apc the opc has advantages of more stable development more timely adjustment and lower cost and it provides cost savings of 302 857 billion yuan in 1990 2017 according to pcd china s coal industry existed under the risk of overcapacity in 1990 1999 and 2009 2017 and undercapacity in 2000 2008 and it can experience overcapacity for most of the time without capacity reduction policies in future the optimal management of the pc should be based on the opc and pcd over the next 5 10 years rather than the current capacity utilization rate and focus on overcapacity management in the long run

interest rate pass through a meta analysis of the literature the interest rate pass through describes how changes in a reference rate the monetary policy money market or t bill rate transmit to bank lending rates this paper reviews the empirical literature on the interest rate pass through and systematizes it by means of meta analysis and meta regressions the paper finds systematically lower estimated pass through coefficients in studies that focus on transmission to long term lending rates consumer lending rates and average lending rates the interest rate pass through is significantly influenced by country macro financial and institutional factors the estimated pass through tends to be stronger for economies with deeper capital markets measured by market capitalization interestingly central bank independence rising from lower levels can reduce interest rate pass through while central bank independence rising from already high levels can boost the pass through

competitive capacity expansion under demand uncertainty abstract we analyze the capacity expansion behavior of firms in a duopoly faced with an uncertain new market the market demand may be high or low with a given probability mass function firms obtain private information about the market size and build their capacity before the market demand is known once the demand is revealed firms enter a capacity constrained price competition phase which determines their revenues two scenarios are considered first when firms choose their capacities simultaneously in the investment phase and second when they do so sequentially for each case we determine the unique symmetric nash equilibrium excess capacity can occur in equilibrium in the industry it is seen that preempting the competitor in the capacity expansion phase offers first mover benefits we argue that the sequential moves game is more prone to equilibrium excess capacity compared to the simultaneous case we show that preemption is a good strategy if the investing environment is either highly optimistic or highly pessimistic if the industry outlook is only moderately optimistic a capacity planner is still better off preempting his competitor however the industry may encounter overcapacity as a consequence

competition transmission and bank pricing policies evidence from belgian loan and deposit markets abstract this paper addresses the pass through from market interest rates to retail bank interest rates the paper advocates a heterogeneous approach and applies it to the belgian banking market a substantial proportion of the heterogeneity in bank pricing policies can be explained by the bank lending channel and the relative market power hypothesis the results also suggest that the long term pass through is typically less than one for one rejecting the completeness hypothesis while there is no convincing evidence for asymmetry in retail rates large deviations from equilibrium mark ups are faster reduced than small deviations overall conditions for corporate loans are more competitive compared to consumer loans demand and savings deposits have by far the most rigid prices

bank asset quality monetary policy pass through the funding mix of european firms is weighted heavily towards bank credit which underscores the importance of efficient pass through of monetary policy actions to lending rates faced by firms euro area pass through has shifted from being relatively homogenous to being fragmented and incomplete since the financial crisis distressed loan books are a crisis hangover with direct implications for profitability hampering banks ability to supply credit and lower loan pricing in response to reductions in the policy rate this paper presents a parsimonious model to decompose the cost of lending and highlight the role of asset quality in diminishing pass through using bank level data over the period 2008 2014 we empirically test the implications of the model we show that a one percentage point increase in the impairment ratio lowering short run pass through by 3 we find that banks with severely impaired balance sheets do not adjust their loan pricing in response to changes in the policy rate at all

regional interest rate pass through in italy this paper estimates the pass through and speed of adjustment of italian regional interest rates to changes in the money market rate for the period 1998q1 2009q4 our main findings suggest that the markup for the lending rates that banks charge are generally higher in the south than in the north moreover our results indicate that the pass through tends to be longer in southern regions we find little evidence supporting the hypothesis of asymmetric adjustment in the lending rates but detect some evidence supporting upward rigidity in the regional deposit rates

competition and efficiency in the dutch life insurance industry the lack of available prices in the dutch life insurance industry makes competition an elusive concept that defies direct observation therefore this article investigates competition by analysing several factors which may affect the competitive nature of a market and various indirect measurement approaches after discussing various supply and demand factors which may constitute a so called tight oligopoly we establish the existence of scale economies and the importance of cost x inefficiency since severe competition would force firms to exploit available scale economies and to reduce x inefficiencies both scale economies and x inefficiencies turn out to be substantial although more or less comparable to those found for insurers in other countries and to other financial institutions further we apply the boone indicator a novel approach to measuring the effects of competition this indicator points to limited competition in comparison to other sectors in the netherlands further investigations of submarkets should reveal where policy measures in order to promote competition might be appropriate

landfill construction and capacity expansion we study the optimal capacity and lifetime of landfills taking into account their sequential nature such an optimal capacity is characterized by the so called optimal capacity condition particular versions of this condition are obtained for two alternative settings first if all the landfills are to have the same capacity and second if each of them is allowed to have a different capacity in the second case we obtain an optimal control problem with mixed elements of both continuous and discrete time the resulting optimization problems involve dividing a time horizon of planning into several subintervals of endogenously decided length the results obtained may be useful to address other economic problems such as private and public investments consumption decisions on durable goods etc

interest margins and bank regulation in central america and the caribbean abstract this paper examines empirically the determinants of bank interest margins in central america and the caribbean over the period 1998 2014 a particular focus is set on the impact of differences in the regulatory environment and market structure across countries in explaining the interest margins of individual banks our results suggest that bank market power operating costs credit risk and liquid asset holdings increase the margin between loan and deposit rates while increased income diversification and gdp growth are associated with lower loan deposit spreads when considering information on banking regulation we find strong evidence to support our main hypothesis that improvements in market quality and liberalization have a significant effect on interest margins more specifically reductions in entry requirements to banking higher involvement of foreign banks and increased financial statement transparency are associated with significant reductions in interest margins

economic investment times for capacity expansion problems abstract a simple rule for the determination of the optimal investment time for a capacity expansion problem is provided based on a general class of stochastic demand processes of practical interest the timing rule is shown to be independent of the descriptive characteristics of the demand process and thus can be considered to be robust in nature

joint inventory and cash management for multidivisional supply chains this paper develops a centralized supply chain model that integrates material flows with cash flows the supply chain is owned by a single firm with two divisions the downstream division headquarters facing random customer demand replenishes materials from the upstream division the firm installs a financial services platform that pools the divisions cash into a master account managed by the headquarters in each period cash is received from customers and paid to the outside vendor after materials are delivered the headquarters determines how much cash to retain for inventory replenishment the objective is to determine an optimal joint inventory replenishment and cash retention policy for the entire supply chain we prove that the optimal policy has a surprisingly simple structure both divisions implement a base stock policy for inventory replenishment the headquarters monitors the corporate working capital and implements a two threshold policy for cash retention this result is obtained by exte

capacity expansion for random exponential demand growth with lead times the combination of demand uncertainty and a lead time for adding capacity creates the risk of capacity shortage during the lead time we formulate a model of capacity expansion for uncertain exponential demand growth and deterministic expansion lead times when there is an obligation to provide a specified level of service the service level defined in terms of the ratio of expected lead time shortage to installed capacity is guaranteed by timing each expansion to begin when demand reaches a fixed proportion of the capacity position under this timing rule the optimal facilities to install can be determined by solving an equivalent deterministic problem without lead times numerical results show the effects of the demand parameters and lead time length on the expansion timing the interaction of timing with expansion size is explored for the case when continuous facility sizes are available with economies of scale

interest rate pass through since the euro area crisis abstract the financial crisis has been characterised by fragmentation in the transmission of monetary policy as reflected in the high dispersion in interest rates on bank loans to euro area firms heterogeneity in interest rate pricing also emerged within countries suggesting that macroeconomic differences were not the only driver of dispersion using individual bank data for twelve euro area countries covering almost a decade since the start of the crisis we identify the balance sheet characteristics that contributed to this fragmentation and document the share of the deviation in interest rates from policy rates that is accounted for by each characteristic interest rate pass through heterogeneity is estimated using an error correction framework that accounts for macroeconomic variation and market structure and includes standard bank characteristics such as size capital and liquidity as well as variables that capture banks funding access risk and asset quality results show incomplete pass through of changes in money market rates targeted by the central bank to firms lending rates sovereign bond yields are shown to affect the cost of finance for firms particularly in stressed countries and market concentration is associated with smaller reductions in lending rates with regard to bank characteristics asset impairment leads to a significant decrease in pass though bank size as a proxy for market power and reliance on central bank funding affect pass through for smaller loans while capital is more significant for larger loans

bank net worth and frustrated monetary policy abstract i present a model in which bank net worth determines both loan market competition and monetary transmission to firm borrowing rates in the model banks are local monopolists for borrowers near them when they are flush with equity banks expand their lending compete for customers at the edges of their markets and pass through changes in the monetary policy rate to their loan rates when they lose substantial equity banks consolidate retreat from rivalry and frustrate monetary transmission the model explains why interest rate pass through weakens after financial crises its predictions are consistent with several facts about bank to firm lending

planning for surprise water resources development under demand and supply uncertainty i the general model a study of water resources development in south sweden revealed that water consumption unexpectedly stopped growing after construction had begun on a large project to expand water supplies the project had a long lead time for completion and planning had been based on traditional deterministic forecasts of future water use to explore the implications of such an uncertain structural shift in future consumption patterns we develop a model for determining the timing for initiating such a project in this model the original consumption forecast may be disrupted at some random future time by an event called a surprise as in the swedish situation we have modeled the surprise as an unexpected stagnation in future demand growth and benefit levels we show that this form of uncertainty makes desirable delaying the initiation of the project beyond the time optimal under the original forecast we then extend the model to include the lead time for the project as a variable and demonstrate that the lead time should be reduced from that optimal under a deterministic future finally we incorporate the option of abandoning the project when the surprise occurs and show that higher salvage values for the project lead to earlier optimal commitment times

firm and interruptible pricing patterns public versus private gas distribution utilities this study presents a model of the determination of firm and interruptible gas pricing patterns for a sample of municipal and private natural gas distribution utilities firm and interruptible gas pricing is widely used by gas distributors as an alternative to peak and off peak pricing how enterprise form affects these pricing patterns is the focus of this study although state regulated municipals are included in the analysis the focus of the investigation is on the difference between state regulated privates and locally regulated unregulated municipals since these are the major options from a public policy perspective the natural gas distribution industry is chosen for study since this industry is largely ignored in the empirical literature the few gas distribution pricing studies that exist are generally quite limited in scope examine the economic efficiency of private gas distributors from a cost and profit perspective or focus upon state regulatory effects on service contracts or private distributors pricing

smoothed interest rate setting by central banks and staggered loan contracts i investigate a new source of economic stickiness namely staggered loan interest rate contracts under monopolistic competition this study introduces this mechanism into a standard new keynesian model simulations show that a response to a financial shock is greatly amplified by the staggered loan contracts although a response to a productivity cost push or monetary policy shock is not much affected i derive an approximated loss function and analyse optimal monetary policy unlike other models the function includes a quadratic loss of the first order difference in loan rates thus central banks have an incentive to smooth the policy rate

trade off between capacity invested and inventory needed a multi item capacitated make to order production system with considerable demand fluctuations is discussed the relationship between the available capacity and the inventory needed to meet customer requirements with a pre defined service level is modeled furthermore the total cost for both capacity and inventory is minimized and it is shown that assuming negligible change over times the double of the surplus inventory cost has to be equal to the excess capacity cost to ensure minimum total cost

impact of bank competition on the interest rate pass through in the euro area this article analyses the impact of loan market competition on the interest rates applied by euro area banks to loans during the period 1994 2004 using a novel measure of competition called the boone indicator we find evidence that stronger competition implies significantly lower spreads between bank and market interest rates for most loan market products in line with expectations this result implies that stronger competition causes both lower bank interest rates and a stronger pass through of market rate changes into bank rates evidence of the latter is also presented by our error correction model ecm for bank rates further banks compensate income losses from increased loan market competition by offering lower deposit rates our findings with respect to the loan market rates have important monetary policy implications as they suggest that measures to promote competition in the european banking sector are likely to render the monetary policy transmission mechanism more effective

capacity expansion under stochastic demands we consider the problem of optimally meeting a stochastically growing demand for capacity over an infinite horizon under the assumption that demand for product follows either a nonlinear brownian motion or a non markovian birth and death process we show that this stochastic problem can be transformed into an equivalent deterministic problem consistent with earlier work by a manne the equivalent problem is formed by replacing the stochastic demand by its deterministic trend and discounting all costs by a new interest rate that is smaller than the original in approximate proportion to the uncertainty in the demand

cost efficiency in the swiss gas distribution sector this paper studies the cost structure of gas distribution utilities in switzerland three stochastic frontier models are applied to a panel of 26 companies operating from 1996 to 2000 efficiency is assumed to be constant over time the analysis highlights the importance of output characteristics such as customer density and network size the results suggest that the utilities could slightly reduce their operating costs by improving efficiency there is no evidence of significant unexploited scale economies however our analysis indicates that the estimates of scale economies could be sensitive to the assumptions regarding the variation of output with output characteristics

the eurozone deposit rates puzzle choosing the right benchmark this paper proposes an alternative benchmark to the euribor to analyze the post crisis puzzling behavior of deposit rates in the eurozone using bank level cds data for 6 major eurozone countries we build a simple country level index for banks cost of unsecured funding the use of this index instead of the traditionally used euribor restores the cointegration relationship between deposit rates and their reckoned opportunity cost it also suggests that deposits have actually not been significantly over remunerated in most euro area countries since the financial crisis in contrast to what is often argued

dynamic capacity expansion for a service firm with capacity deterioration and supply uncertainty motivated by the challenges faced by the telecom industry during the past decade in this paper we study a dynamic capacity expansion problem for service firms there is a random demand for the firm s capacity in each period the demand in excess of the capacity is lost and revenue is generated for the fulfilled demand at the beginning of each period the firm might increase its capacity through purchasing equipment for immediate delivery which is constrained by a random supply limit or it might sign a future contract for equipment delivery in the following period we assume that the firm s capacity might partially become obsolete due to natural deterioration or technology innovation we aim at characterizing optimal capacity expansion strategies and comparing the profit functions as well as the optimal control policies of different options specifically we show that the optimal capacity expansion policy for the current period is determined by a base stock policy compared with the case where no future contracts are available the optimal control parameters of capacity expansion are always smaller we further show that when the obsolescence rate is deterministic the optimal policy for capacity expansion through future contracts is also a base stock type the results are extended to the cases with stochastically dependent capacity supply limits and stochastically dependent demand processes which establish the robustness of the optimal policy in various market conditions

information acquisition for capacity planning via pricing and advance selling when to stop and act this paper investigates a capacity planning strategy that collects commitments to purchase before the capacity decision and uses the acquired advance sales information to decide on the capacity in particular we study a profit maximization model in which a manufacturer collects advance sales information periodically prior to the regular sales season for a capacity decision customer demand is stochastic and price sensitive once the capacity is set the manufacturer produces and satisfies customer demand to the extent possible from the installed capacity during the regular sales period we study scenarios in which the advance sales and regular sales season prices are set exogenously and optimally for both scenarios we establish the optimality of a control band or a threshold policy that determines when to stop acquiring advance sales information and how much capacity to build we show that advance selling can improve the manufacturer s profit significantly we generate insights into how operating conditions such as the capacity building cost and market characteristics such as demand variability affect the value of information acquired through advance selling from this analysis we identify the conditions under which advance selling for capacity planning is most valuable finally we study the joint benefits of acquiring information for capacity planning through advance selling and revenue management of installed capacity through dynamic pricing

capacity expansion with interrupted demand growth abstract in most long range planning problems accurate forecasting of demand growth is often difficult sometimes unexpected shocks in the economy occur and disrupt the predicted growth rate of demand for example growth can unexpectedly cease for and indeterminate length of time due to crucial occurrnces such as wars economic recessions or oil price shocks in this paper we examine the effects of unforeseen demand plateaus on the capacity expansion problem of sizing and timing production facilities we assume that demand for capacity follows a stochastic process that is we allow for plateaus to happen at random future times and to continue for an uncertain duration when the demand process is generated by an alternating renewal process we show that demand plateaus result in a modified discounting rate and a modified import cost

modelling british interest rate adjustment an error correction approach an error correction model is used to capture the dynamics of british retail deposit and loan rate responses to changes in the central bank s base rate the test is conducted using a monthly series of interest rates for four generic retail banking products over the period 1986 93 the adjustment process is found to vary considerably between and within banks and products the results suggest that this market continues to exhibit many features of imperfect competition and that adjustment differences could affect the speed of the money transmission mechanism

the stability of short term interest rates pass through in the euro area during the financial market and sovereign debt crises we analyse the dynamics of the pass through of banks marginal cost to bank lending rates over the 2008 crisis and the euro area sovereign debt crisis in france germany greece italy portugal and spain we measure banks marginal cost by their rate on new deposits contrary to the literature that focuses on money market rates this allows us to account for banks risks we focus on the interest rate on new short term loans granted to non financial corporations in these countries our analysis is based on an error correction approach that we extend to handle the time varying long run relationship between banks lending rates and banks marginal cost as well as stochastic volatility our application is based on a harmonised monthly database from january 2003 to october 2014 we estimate the model within a bayesian framework using markov chain monte carlo methods mcmc we reject the view that the transmission mechanism is permanent over time the long run relationship moved with the sovereign debt crises to a new one with a slower pass through and higher bank lending rates its developments are heterogeneous from one country to the other impediments to the transmission of monetary rates depend on the heterogeneity in banks marginal costs and therefore its risks we also find that rates to small firms increase compared to large firms in a few countries using a var model we show that overall the effect of a shock on the rate of new deposits on the unexpected variances of new loans has been less important since 2010 these results confirm the slowdown in the transmission mechanism

bank concentration and retail interest rates abstract the recent wave of mergers in the euro area raises the question whether the increase in concentration has offset the increase in competition in european banking through deregulation we test this question by estimating a simple cournot model of bank pricing we construct country and product specific measures of bank concentration and find that for loans and demand deposits increasing concentration may have resulted in less competitive pricing by banks whereas for savings and time deposits the model is rejected suggesting increases in contestability and or efficiency in these markets finally the paper discusses some implications for tests of the effect of concentration on monetary policy transmission

intensity of competition and the incentive to innovate abstract the effects of intensity of product market competition on r d incentives are analysed in a model capturing the strategic interactions between firms with different cost levels first four axioms are proposed that a measure of intensity of competition should satisfy then the effects of intensity of competition on the value of the innovation are analysed and it is shown that the axioms imply the existence of a non monotone relation between intensity of competition and the value of an innovation

bank funding costs in a rising interest rate environment one key risk to the banking system is how funding costs will change as monetary policy is normalized and interest rates rise after almost a decade of near zero rates our contribution is to develop a model that jointly estimates banks balance sheets and retail interest rates to arrive at a consistent estimate of the change in bank funding costs as market rates change our estimates imply a 100 basis point shock to the federal funds rate would increase overall deposit funding costs by about 40 billion which is roughly equal to 25 of aggregate annual net income for commercial banks and savings institutions we also find that deposit rate responses are largely symmetric in contrast to some previous research showing deposit rates are less responsive to upward movements in reference rates we introduce unique and confidential data on bank deposit betas to anchor our results

strategic capacity investment under uncertainty this article considers investment decisions within an uncertain dynamic and duopolistic framework each investment decision involves to determine the timing and the capacity level the simultaneous analysis of timing and capacity decisions extends work on entry deterrence accommodation to consider a timing delay element we find that when applying an entry deterrence policy the first investor or incumbent overinvests in capacity for two reasons first it delays the investment of the second investor or entrant second the entrant will invest in less capacity we also find that greater uncertainty makes entry deterrence more likely

the structure performance relationship for european banking abstract the relationship between market structure and performance has been studied extensively for american banking in contrast little work has been done to investigate this relationship for european banking two explanations of a positive correlation between profitability and concentration have been advanced the traditional structure performance hypothesis scp and the efficient structure hypothesis previous empirical tests of the alternative hypotheses have yielded mixed results but the tests were not robust because they did not incorporate measures of efficiency directly in the model this study applies a stochastic cost frontier as proposed by aigner et al 1977 to derive measures of x inefficiency and scale inefficiency under the assumption that the errors are distributed half normal we incorporate these measures of inefficiencies directly into the tests as proposed by berger and hannan 1993 we do not find a positive and significant relationship between concentration and profitability for a sample of banks across 11 european countries over a four year period 1988 1991 however we do find evidence to support one of the two versions of the efficient structure hypothesis for banks located in countries with low concentration of banks since little support is found for either of the scp hypotheses a simple policy of strict limitations on cross border acquisitions and growth is not warranted

some evidence on the empirical significance of credit rationing this paper examines the credit rationing debate using detailed contract information on over one million commercial bank loans from 1977 to 1988 while commercial loan rates are sticky consistent with rationing this stickiness varies with loan contract terms in ways that are not predicted by equilibrium credit rationing theory in addition the proportion of new loans issued under commitment does not increase significantly when credit markets are tight despite the fact that borrowers without commitments can be rationed whereas commitment borrowers are contractually insulated from rationing overall the data suggest that equilibrium rationing is not a significant macroeconomic phenomenon

productivity growth and incentive regulation in austria s gas distribution abstract the projected rate of productivity growth is the critical determinant of the price cap in incentive regulation however the regulatory authorities generally lack sophisticated industry tfp studies to set an optimal cap we thus estimate productivity growth in the austrian gas distribution sector in a translog cost function framework a key feature is our unique panel database on costs and outputs of regulated utilities for the period 2002 2013 covering six years prior and during incentive regulation as introduced in 2008 we find a modest tfp growth rate in the early sample years followed by a decline to zero or even slightly negative rates in recent years we also find a significant potential for returns to scale which is left unexploited indicating that utilities could significantly save on costs by merging as essential investments have already been undertaken in the past opportunities for technological progress seem to be limited in recent years

banking competition collateral constraints and optimal monetary policy we analyze optimal monetary policy in a model with two distinct financial frictions monopolistically competitive banks that charge endogenous lending spreads and collateral constraints we show that welfare maximization is equivalent to stabilization of four goals inflation output gap the consumption gap between borrowers and savers and a housing gap that measures the distortion in the distribution of the collateralizable asset between both groups collateral constraints create a trade off between stabilization goals following both productivity and financial shocks and relative to strict inflation targeting the optimal policy implies sharper movements in the policy rate aimed primarily at reducing fluctuations in asset prices and hence in borrowers net worth the policy trade offs become amplified as banking competition increases due to the fall in lending spreads and the resulting increase in borrowers leverage