the policy preferences of the us federal reserve in this paper we model and explain us macroeconomic outcomes subject to the discipline that monetary policy is set optimally exploiting the restrictions that come from optimal policymaking we estimate the parameters in the federal reserve s policy objective function together with the parameters in its optimization constraints for the period following volcker s appointment as chairman we estimate the implicit inflation target to be around 1 4 and show that policymakers assigned a significant weight to interest rate smoothing we show that the estimated optimal policy provides a good description of us data for the 1980s and 1990s

optimal discretionary monetary policy in a model of asymmetric central bank preferences this paper considers optimal monetary policy in the context of the central bank adopting an asymmetric objective function our results show that under asymmetric preferences many of the extant results on the time consistency problem need no longer hold

does tax increment financing raise urban industrial property values the paper examines the impact of tax increment financing tif on the value of industrial properties in chicago because tif designation may be self selected a two stage procedure is used to estimate the influence of tif the authors find that the value of industrial parcels located in mixed use tif districts i e those that also contain commercial or residential properties is higher than that of similar parcels that are not located in a tif district however the value of industrial parcels that are located in homogeneous industrial use tif districts is no higher and in some specifications is lower than that of similar parcels not located in a tif district these divergent results may be best explained by industrial parcel owners desire to convert their properties to non industrial uses

inflation and reputation in many macroeconomic models with rational expectations optimal policy is time inconsistent and therefore announced policy may not be credible this paper models the government s credibility explicitly using kreps and wilson s analysis time consistent optimal government policy emerges as a sequential equilibrium in a repeated game this policy is at least as good as the inconsistent optimal policy and dominates the consistent policy when reputational effects are ignored thus the analysis resolves the problem of specifying a credible optimal policy in such models the results show why attempts to disinflate may lead to recession even with perfectly flexible prices this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

the monetary policy of the european central bank the first six years of ecb monetary policy are examined using a general framework that allows central bankers to weight differently positive and negative deviations of inflation output and the interest rate from their reference values the empirical analysis on synthetic euro area data suggests that the objective of price stability is symmetric whereas the objectives of real activity and interest rate stabilizations are not output contractions imply larger policy responses than output expansions of the same size while movements in the interest rate are larger when the level of the interest rate is relatively high the hypothesis of m3 growth rate targeting is rejected

the two pillars of the european central bank i interpret the european central bank s two pillar strategy by proposing an empirical model for inflation that distinguishes between the short and long run components of inflation the latter component depends on an exponentially weighted moving average of past monetary growth and the former on the output gap estimates for the 1971 2003 period suggest that money can be combined with other indicators to form the broadly based assessment of the outlook for future price developments that constitutes the ecb s second pillar however the analysis does not suggest that money should be treated differently from other indicators while money is a useful policy indicator all relevant indicators should be assessed in an integrated manner and a separate pillar focused on monetary aggregates does not appear necessary stefan gerlach

are monetary policy reaction functions asymmetric the role of nonlinearity in the phillips curve abstract this paper investigates the implications of a nonlinear phillips curve for the derivation of optimal monetary policy rules combined with a quadratic loss function the optimal policy is also nonlinear with the policy maker increasing interest rates by a larger amount when inflation or output are above target than the amount it will reduce them when they are below target specifically the main prediction of our model is that such a source of nonlinearity leads to the inclusion of the interaction between expected inflation and the output gap in an otherwise linear taylor rule we find empirical support for this type of asymmetries in the interest rate setting behaviour of four european central banks but none for the us fed

the effects of tax increment financing on economic development abstract local governments attempt to influence business location decisions and economic development through use of the property tax tax increment financing tif earmarks property tax revenues that result from growth in assessed valuation the tif revenues are to be used for economic development projects but may also be diverted for other purposes using data for the chicago metropolitan area that includes information on property value growth before and after tif adoption we find evidence that cities that adopt tif grow more slowly than those that do not we test for and reject sample selection bias as an explanation of this finding

reputation and imperfect information abstract a common observation in the informal literature of economics and elsewhere is that is multistage games players may seek early in the game to acquire a reputation for being tough or benevolent or something else but this phenomenon is not observed in some formal game theoretic analyses of finite games such as selten s finitely repeated chain store game or in the finitely repeated prisoners dilemma we reexamine selten s model adding to it a small amount of imperfect or incomplete information about players payoffs and we find that this addition is sufficient to give rise to the reputation effect that one intuitively expects

nominal price rigidity money supply endogeneity and business cycles abstract this paper investigates the ability of nominal price rigidity to explain the co movement of inflation with the cyclical component of output observed in the post war u s data a dynamic general equilibrium model is constructed with the introduction of monopolistic competition and nominal price rigidity in a standard real business cycle model allowing for an endogenous money supply rule it is then demonstrated that sticky price models can explain the observed associations between movements in inflation and output much better than flexible price models this result depends little on whether money supply is assumed to be endogenous or not

third down with a yard to go recursive expected utility and the dixit skeath conundrum abstract in two outcome strictly competitive games equilibrium mixed strategies do not depend on ultimate prizes dixit and skeath games of strategy 1999 norton new york find this counter intuitive we show this invariance comes from reduction not independence and provide conditions for intuitive comparative statics under recursive expected utility

does the barro gordon model explain the behavior of us inflation a reexamination of the empirical evidence abstract this paper tests the predictions of the barro gordon model using us data on inflation and unemployment to that end it constructs a general game theoretical model with asymmetric preferences that nests the barro gordon model and a version of cukierman s model as special cases likelihood ratio tests indicate that the restriction imposed by the barro gordon model is rejected by the data but the one imposed by the version of cukierman s model is not reduced form estimates are consistent with the view that the federal reserve weights more heavily positive than negative unemployment deviations from the expected natural rate

tax policy and urban development evidence from the indiana enterprise zone program abstract this paper analyzes the effect of the indiana enterprise zone ez program on local employment and investment using a panel of local taxing jurisdictions as in other ez programs indiana s incentives favor capital relative to labor but the target of the capital incentive is unusual the stock of inventories using various estimation methods i estimate that zone designation initially reduces the value of depreciable personal property by about 13 percent but also reduces unemployment claims in the zone and surrounding community by 19 percent the value of inventories in indiana zones is 8 percent higher than it would be without the program

inflation targeting as a monetary policy rule the purpose of the paper is to survey and discuss in ation targeting in the context of monetary policy rules the paper provides a general conceptual discussion of monetary policy rules attempts to clarify the essential characteristics of in ation targeting compares in ation targeting to other monetary policy rules and draws some conclusions for the monetary policy of the european system of central banks jel classi cation e42 e52

countering decline of industrial sites do local economic development policies target the neediest places local economic development is a much used tool for the regeneration of urban areas although the designation and effectiveness of local economic development policies has been studied extensively in

the effects of location based tax policies on the distribution of household income evidence from the federal empowerment zone program abstract location based tax policies are redistributive as evidenced by their placement in distressed areas however the previous literature has focused on mean effects which can mask important effects that the program has on the distribution of households therefore we extend the literature by studying changes in the entire household income distribution in the context of the federal empowerment zone ez program we do not find evidence that the impoverished residents benefited from the program our findings are consistent with the areas becoming more attractive to high income households the improvements in the areas were concentrated in those portions of each zone that were relatively better off prior to ez designation the results confirm the prior literature findings that the areas on average became more attractive but also suggest that the benefits of the program likely did not accrue to the lower income residents of the ez areas

bidding for firms recently toyota sought a plant location in the united states the 800 million plant will employ 3000 workers and numerous states offered toyota generous investment incentives hoping this would induce toyota to select their state the commonwealth of kentucky won this competition but the price was high the present value of the payments exceeds 125 million the payment of investment incentives for the toyota plant is not unique in 1976 pennsylvania paid 75 million to attract a volkswagen plan nissan honda and mazda received generous investment incentives when locating plants in the united states and this bidding is not limited to states to attract the headquarters of the presbyterian church usa with its 1300 jobs and 38 million annual payroll civic leaders in louisville kentucky offered the church a warehouse and 6 2 million for renovation of the structure bidding the church away from kansas city missouri in this paper we contend that this competition may result from the average cost pricing of publicly provided goods and services 2 when the marginal cost of providing a firm and its workers with public services is less than the tax revenue they generate a government may offer the firm subsidies that reduce the distortions the average cost pricing of the public service creates thus this competition for industry is not a zero sum game where the subsidies are only transfers from the government to the firm rather these subsidies may facilitate the efficient location of industry

modelling monetary policy inflation targeting in practice this paper estimates a simple structural model of monetary policy in the uk focusing on the policy of inflation targeting introduced in 1992 we find that i the adoption of inflation targeting led to significant changes in monetary policy ii post 1992 monetary policy is asymmetric as policy makers respond more to upward deviation of inflation away from the target iii post 1992 policy makers may be attempting to keep inflation within the 1 4 2 6 range rather than pursuing a point target of 2 5 and iv the response of monetary policy to inflation is nonlinear as interest rates respond more when inflation is further from the target

crucial issues concerning central bank independence abstract this paper argues first that it is inappropriate to presume that central banks will in the absence of any tangible precommitment technology inevitably behave in a discretionary fashion that implies an inflationary bias furthermore there is no necessary tradeoff between flexibility and commitment second to the extent that the absence of any precommitment technology is nevertheless a problem it will apply to a consolidated central bank plus government entity as well as to the central bank alone thus contracts between governments and central banks do not overcome the motivation for dynamic inconsistency they merely relocate it several implications are discussed

does chicago s tax increment financing tif programme pass the but for test job creation and economic development impacts using time series data chicago uses tax increment financing tif to promote economic development to a greater extent than any other large american city this paper conducts a comprehensive assessment of the effectiveness of chicago s tif programme in creating economic opportunities and catalysing real estate investments at the neighbourhood scale this paper uses a unique panel dataset at the block group level to analyse the impact of tif designation and investments on employment change business creation and building permit activity after controlling for potential selection bias in tif assignment this paper shows that tif ultimately fails the but for test and shows no evidence of increasing tangible economic development benefits for local residents implications for policy are considered

imperfect monitoring and impermanent reputations we study the long run sustainability of reputations in games with imperfect public monitoring it is impossible to maintain a permanent reputation for playing a strategy that does not play an equilibrium of the game without uncertainty about types thus a player cannot indefinitely sustain a reputation for noncredible behavior in the presence of imperfect monitoring

chasing a dream the use of tax abatements to spur urban economic development in this paper i develop a systematic framework for assessing the effectiveness of granting tax abatements to encourage urban economic development this approach focuses upon the abatement s effect upon the firm s decision to invest and the impact of the investment upon the community current policy fails to take these considerations into account adequately i use this framework to evaluate the potential revenue gain to the city of detroit of offering variable abatement awards and suggest a set of proposals to improve program performance

who offers tax based business development incentives abstract many american communities seek to attract or retain businesses with tax abatements tax credits or tax increment financing of infrastructure projects tifs the evidence for 1999 indicates that communities are most likely to offer one or more of these business development incentives if their residents have low incomes if they are located close to state borders and if their states have troubled political cultures ten percent greater median household income is associated with a 3 2 lower probability of offering incentives 10 greater distance from a state border is associated with a 1 0 lower probability of offering incentives and a 10 higher rate at which government officials are convicted of federal corruption crimes is associated with a 1 2 greater probability of offering business incentives tifs are the preferred incentive of communities whose residents have household incomes between 25 000 and 75 000 whereas tifs are much less commonly offered by communities whose residents have household incomes below 25 000 the need to finance tifs out of incremental tax revenues may make it infeasible for many of the poorest of communities to use tifs for local business development

on inflation as a regressive consumption tax abstract evidence on the portfolio holdings and transaction patterns of households suggests that the burden of inflation is not evenly distributed we build a monetary growth model consistent with key features of cross sectional household data and use this framework to study the distributional impact of inflation at the aggregate level our model economy behaves similar to standard monetary growth models within the representative agent abstraction inflation has however important distributional effects since it is effectively a regressive consumption tax thus neglecting the distributional consequences of inflation may prove misleading in assessing the effects of inflation in our economy

the past present and future of central banking the financial crisis on the one hand and the recourse to unconventional monetary policy on the other have given a sharp jolt to perceptions of the role and status of central banks in this paper we start with a brief contrarian history of central banks since the second world war which presents the great moderation and the restricted focus on inflation targeting as a temporary aberration from the norm we then discuss how recent developments in fiscal and monetary policy have affected the role and status of central banks notably their relationships with governments before considering the environment central banks will face in the near and middle future and how they will have to change to address it copyright 2012 oxford university press

tax increment financing a theoretical inquiry abstract this paper offers an analysis of tax increment financing tif adding to a small theoretical literature on this important fiscal instrument the analysis exploits the theoretical connection between property values and public good levels which is the subject of a large literature in local public finance using this approach the paper shows that localized public improvements are likely to be opposed by property owners outside the affected area who pay higher property taxes with no offsetting benefits by using tax revenue captured from overlapping jurisdictions tif may circumvent this opposition allowing the city to implement the public improvement without an increase in its tax rate tif is not always viable as a financing method however because it may not generate enough additional revenue the analysis shows that tif s viability is ensured only when the public good is at least moderately underprovided relative to the socially optimal level in the case where the public good is slightly underprovided a public improvement is desirable but tif is not viable finally the analysis shows that the public good level ultimately chosen under tif need not be efficient with both under and overprovision being possible outcomes thus while tif may allow a city to carry out needed public improvements the stimulus it provides may be excessive

limited records and reputation bubbles abstract this paper offers a tractable and fully rational model to study the economics of reputation in a dynamic market with limited record keeping i e a market in which new entrants observe only the last few periods of play of the long run player instead of the full history of the market we show that trust is gradually granted to the opportunistic long run player despite the fact that his type is perfectly observed by the short run opponents and the perfectly informed short run players ride and drive up reputation bubbles at the expense of their uninformed successors we characterize equilibrium payoffs uniformly over time which is useful for analyzing ongoing repeated relationships where the starting moments have passed

variations in development subsidies under tax increment financing in the face of increasingly scarce federal community development grants and in an effort to encourage the renewal of deteriorated sections of many urban areas states have become interested in tax increment financing tif as a way of providing development incentives to their local units of government 1 tax increment financing laws typically allow cities or local development authorities to recover certain development expenditures that they make in specially created districts from a portion of the property tax revenues realized by the county school district and other local taxing jurisdictions 2 states are attracted to tif largely because of their concern that cities will not engage in socially desirable development or redevelopment efforts such as slum clearance or blight elimination when faced with the incentives inherent in the existing property tax system without tif cities often bear the cost of development alone while several local taxing jurisdictions share the development benefit narrowly defined as increased property tax revenues the resultant distribution of costs and benefits leads to perceptions of inequities and disincentives for development as reflected by the legislative declaration for the wisconsin tif legislation

money and inflation in the euro area a case for monetary indicators abstract this paper examines inflation indicators for the euro area by studying the relationship between inflation output money and interest rates using data spanning 1980 2001 the central finding is that both the output gap and the real money gap the difference between the real money stock and the long run equilibrium real money stock contain considerable information regarding future inflation in contrast the eurosystem s money growth indicator the difference between nominal money growth and a reference value the prominent first pillar in its monetary strategy contains little information about future inflation and no information beyond that contained in the output and real money gaps the predictive performance of the output gap has improved compared to that in a previous version of this paper most likely because of better estimation methods

can local incentives alter a metropolitan city s economic development cities in the us and europe have chosen increasingly to offer incentives designed to attract and retain local economic development the increased use of local incentives has occurred with little or

targeting inflation with a role for money this paper demonstrates how a target for money growth can be beneficial for an inflation targeting central bank acting under discretion because the growth rate of money is closely related to the change in the interest rate and the growth of real output delegating a money growth target to the central bank makes discretionary policy more inertial leading to better social outcomes this delegation scheme is also compared with other schemes suggested in the literature the results indicate that stabilizing money growth around a target can be a sensible strategy for monetary policy although other delegation schemes are often more efficient

volunteering to be taxed business improvement districts and the extra governmental provision of public safety abstract when the median voter s preference sets the level of local public goods some voters are left unsatisfied is there an institution by which subsets of voters can resolve the collective action problem and increase the local provision of public goods if so what are the consequences in response to problems such as crime and vandalism neighborhood property owners have established business improvement districts bids to provide local public goods when a bid is approved by a majority of property owners in a neighborhood state law makes contributions to the bid budget mandatory this resolution of the neighborhood s collective action problem reduces crime bids in the city of los angeles are robustly associated with crime declines of 6 to 10 indeed crime falls regardless of estimation technique fixed effects comparing bids to neighborhoods that considered but did not adopt bids using propensity score matching and comparing bids to their neighbors strikingly these declines are purchased cheaply attributing all bid expenditure to violent crime reduction and thus ignoring the impact of bid expenditure on many quality of life crimes bids spend 21 000 to avert one violent crime this higher bound estimate is substantially lower than the 57 000 social cost of a violent crime

macroeconomic stability and the preferences of the fed a formal analysis 1961 98 the rate of inflation in the u s has declined from an average of 4 5 in the period 1960 79 to an average of 3 6 in 1980 98 between those two periods the standard deviations of inflation and the output gap have also declined these facts can be attributed to the interaction of three possible factors a shift in central bank preferences a reduction in the variability of aggregate supply shocks and a more efficient conduct of monetary policy in this paper we identify the relative roles of these factors our framework is based on the estimation of a small structural macro model for the u s economy jointly with the first order conditions which solve the intertemporal optimization problem faced by the fed overall our results indicate that the policy preferences of the fed and in particular the implicit inflation target have changed drastically with the advent of the volcker greenspan era in addition we find that the variance of supply shocks has been lower and monetary policy has been conducted more efficiently during this period

tax increment financing interaction between two overlapping jurisdictions abstract this paper analyzes the interaction between two overlapping jurisdictions a school district and a city when one of them the city uses tif tax increment financing to finance an improvement in the provision of its public good both jurisdictions levy taxes on property and they provide different public goods the city is not allowed to raise its tax rate to increase public good provision but since the increment in the public good causes property values to increase the city s revenue is higher with the new level of public good however if this new revenue is not enough to finance the new public good level then tif allows the city to capture for a limited period of time all extra revenues the school district obtains due to the increase in property values then the city and the school district choose the public good level to satisfy their budget constraints with the goal of maximizing total property values two different results regarding efficiency of public good provision are obtained depending on the equilibrium concept used with nash behavior the result is underprovision of the public good provided by the school district the second and more interesting case is when the school district takes into account that its decisions affect the provision of the city s public good in this leader follower equilibrium where the school district plays the role of the leader the results show that the provision of the school district public good depends on how the city s public good is provided if the city s public good is underprovided overprovided then the school district s public good is overprovided underprovided

predation reputation and entry deterrence abstract economists often argue that predatory practices are irrational since there exist cheaper or more certain means to gain or maintain a monopoly our gametheoretic equilibrium analysis suggests that if a firm is threatened by several potential entrants then predation may be rational against early entrants even if it is costly when viewed in isolation because it yields a reputation which deters other entrants asymmetric information plays a crucial role in our analysis since it provides the rationale for entrants to base their expectations of the firm s future behavior on its past actions the analysis also suggests methods to treat general reputational phenomena

the relationship between tax increment finance and municipal land annexation we use detailed information from wisconsin municipalities on annexation and tax increment finance tif activity over the period 1990 2003 to determine whether tif has encouraged annexation declaring a recently annexed area a tif district increases the fiscal benefit of annexation since it allows the municipality to direct the incremental revenue increases from overlying governments to economic development activities within the newly formed tif district our analysis suggests that tif is responsible for as much as 119 square miles or 54 of all the land area annexed over the 1990 2003 period in wisconsin

the nonlinear phillips curve and inflation forecast targeting symmetric versus asymmetric monetary policy rules we study a simple small dynamic economy that a policymaker is attempting to control via use of a monetary policy rule the model features a convex phillips curve in that positive deviations of aggregate demand from potential are more inflationary than negative deviations are disinflationary using dynamic optimization techniques we find that the form of the optimal monetary policy reaction function is asymmetric we show that in the optimal rule the interest rate is a nonlinear function of the deviation of inflation from its target and of output from potential with asymmetry optimal monetary policy becomes more active as uncertainty about the impact of policy increases we thus provide an important and novel theoretical reason why increased uncertainty can lead to more aggressive rather than toward more cautious optimal policies

neighborhood characteristics and the targeting of tax increment financing in chicago abstract tax increment financing tif is a local economic development tool that funds improvements in an area designated as a tif district with property tax revenues generated from the growth in property values in the district this paper tests a number of explanations for the location of tif districts within a city by estimating weibull duration models of the time to inclusion in a tif district for neighborhoods in chicago the results suggest that a neighborhood s hazard of inclusion in a tif district is positively related to neighborhood distress the presence of empowerment zones and the passage of time and negatively related to a neighborhood s political influence

large redevelopment initiatives housing values and gentrification the case of the atlanta beltline this paper examines the announcement effects on property values of a large multipurpose development initiative in atlanta georgia called the beltline which has received substantial public attention the project involves the redevelopment of an abandoned rail line that encircles the central area of atlanta the 6500 acre project will be funded by tax increment financing bonds and will include the development of light rail greenspace and real estate projects by examining home sales from 2000 to 2006 the paper identifies changes in price premiums for locations in various geographical buffers around the beltline and compares the timing of such changes with coverage in the local newspaper it is found that there are large increases in premiums for homes near the lower income southside parts of the beltline tif district between 2003 and 2005 which corresponds to the initial media coverage of the planning process the findings suggest that planning for the beltline induced substantial speculation and ge

european inflation dynamics abstract we provide evidence on the fit of the new phillips curve npc for the euro area over the period 1970 1998 and use it as a tool to compare the characteristics of european inflation dynamics with those observed in the u s we also analyze the factors underlying inflation inertia by examining the cyclical behavior of marginal costs as well as that of its two main components namely labor productivity and real wages some of the findings can be summarized as follows a the npc fits euro area data very well possibly better than u s data b the degree of price stickiness implied by the estimates is substantial but in line with survey evidence and u s estimates c inflation dynamics in the euro area appear to have a stronger forward looking component i e less inertia than in the u s d labor market frictions as manifested in the behavior of the wage markup appear to have played a key role in shaping the behavior of marginal costs and consequently inflation in europe

term structure evidence on interest rate smoothing and monetary policy inertia abstract numerous studies have used quarterly data to estimate monetary policy rules or reaction functions that appear to exhibit a very slow partial adjustment of the policy interest rate the conventional wisdom asserts that this gradual adjustment reflects a policy inertia or interest rate smoothing behavior by central banks however such quarterly monetary policy inertia would imply a large amount of forecastable variation in interest rates at horizons of more than 3 months which is contradicted by evidence from the term structure of interest rates the illusion of monetary policy inertia evident in the estimated policy rules likely reflects the persistent shocks that central banks face

who wants a good reputation we examine a market in which long lived firms face a short term incentive to exert low effort but could earn higher profits if it were possible to commit to high effort there are two types of firms inept firms who can only exert low effort and competent firms who have a choice between high and low effort there is occasional exit and competent and inept potential entrants compete for the right to inherit the departing firm s reputation consumers receive noisy signals of effort choice and so competent firms choose high effort in an attempt to distinguish themselves from inept firms a competent firm is most likely to enter the market by purchasing an average reputation in the hopes of building it into a good reputation than either a very low reputation or a very high reputation inept firms in contrast find it more profitable to either buy high reputations and deplete them or buy low reputations

forecast uncertainty and the taylor rule abstract in this paper we derive a modification of a forward looking taylor rule by integrating two variables that measure the uncertainty of inflation and gdp growth forecasts into an otherwise standard new keynesian model we show that certainty equivalence in new keynesian models is a consequence of log linearization and that a second order taylor approximation leads to a reaction function that includes the uncertainty of macroeconomic expectations to test the model empirically we use the standard deviation of individual forecasts around the median consensus forecast as a proxy for forecast uncertainty our sample covers the euro area the united kingdom and the united states for the period 1990q1 2016q4 we find that the bank of england and the european central bank have a significantly negative reaction to inflation forecast uncertainty our findings also reveal that the federal reserve bank of england lowers raises its interest rate in response to higher gdp growth forecast uncertainty we conclude by offering some implications for optimal monetary policy rules and central bank watchers

a reputation refinement without equilibrium the economic literature concerning agents reputations has grown steadily since the seminal work of kreps milgrom roberts and wilson 2 early work focused on how incomplete information leads to equilibria that are vastly different but more intuitive than those possible in the complete information game recently however game theorists have been studying how incomplete information might refine the set of equilibria 3 one important class of games is that in which a single long run agent plays a simultaneous move stage game with a sequence of opponents each of whom plays only once yet observes all previous play fudenberg and levine 1989 study the reputation of the long run player in this type of game they argue that the most reasonable equilibrium is the one which the long run player most prefers their intuition is sustained when one perturbs the game with the stackelberg strategy fudenberg and levine show that in the perturbed game the equilibrium payoffs of the long run player are bounded below by a number that converges to the stackelberg payoff

financing property s contribution to regeneration attracting investment and finance into inner city and other renewal areas poses particular difficulties and is frequently reliant on strong public sector commitment through special incentives or other mechanisms to provide the conditions to lever private sector activity this paper initially links the concept of market failure and the rationale for regeneration and examines policy responses from uk european and us perspectives followed by a consideration of public and private sector financing approaches international perspectives draw particularly upon the use of tax based mechanisms in regeneration notably those used in the us in the european context the paper highlights implications for regeneration stemming from the interpretation of state aid rules and competition policy conclusions reflect upon the complexity of regeneration and the importance of the different stakeholders within the regeneration process

the fed s monetary policy rule and u s inflation the case of asymmetric preferences abstract this paper investigates the empirical relevance of a new framework for monetary policy analysis in which the decision makers are allowed but not required to weight differently positive and negative deviations of inflation and output from the target values the estimates of the central bank s euler equation indicate that the preferences of the fed had been asymmetric only before 1979 with the interest rate response to output contractions being larger than the response to output expansions of the same magnitude we show that this asymmetry on output implied an average inflation bias around 1 5 while the implicit inflation target also declined the asymmetric preferences induced inflation bias appears to account for a sizable fraction of the historical decline in the inflation mean

reputation with analogical reasoning we consider a repeated interaction between a long run player and a sequence of short run players in which the long run player may either be rational or may be a mechanical type who plays the same possibly mixed action in every stage game we depart from the classical model in assuming that the short run players make inferences by analogical reasoning meaning that they correctly identify the average strategy of each type of long run player but do not recognize how this play varies across histories concentrating on 2 2 games we provide a characterization of equilibrium payoffs establishing a payoff bound for the rational long run player that can be strictly larger than the familiar stackelberg bound we also provide a characterization of equilibrium behavior showing that play begins with either a reputation building or a reputation spending stage depending on parameters followed by a reputation manipulation stage

reputation and equilibrium selection in games with a patient player a single long run player plays a simultaneous move stage game against a sequence of opponents who play only once but observe all previous play let the stackelberg strategy be the pure strategy to which the long run player would most like to commit himself if there is positive prior probability that the long run player will always play the stackelberg strategy then his payoff in any nash equilibrium exceeds a bound that converges to the stackelberg payoff as his discount factor approaches one when the stage game is not simultaneous move this result must be modified to account for the possibility that distinct strategies of the long run player are observationally equivalent

are pilots property taxes for nonprofits abstract nonprofit charitable organizations are exempt from most taxes including local property taxes but u s cities and towns increasingly request that nonprofits make payments in lieu of taxes known as pilots strictly speaking pilots are voluntary though nonprofits may feel pressure to make them particularly in high tax communities evidence from massachusetts indicates that pilot rates measured as ratios of payments to the value of local tax exempt property are higher in towns with higher property tax rates a one percentage point higher property tax rate is associated with a 0 2 percentage point higher pilot rate pilots appear to discourage nonprofit activity a one percentage point higher pilot rate is associated with 0 8 lower real property ownership by local nonprofits 0 2 lower total assets and 0 2 lower revenues of local nonprofits these patterns are consistent with voluntary pilots acting in a manner similar to low rate compulsory real estate taxes

disappearing private reputations in long run relationships for games of public reputation with uncertainty over types and imperfect public monitoring cripps mailath and samuelson 2004 showed that an informed player facing short lived uninformed opponents cannot maintain a permanent reputation for playing a strategy that is not part of an equilibrium of the game without uncertainty over types this paper extends that result to games in which the uninformed player is long lived and has private beliefs so that the informed player s reputation is private journal of economic literature classi cation numbers c70 c78

maintaining a reputation when strategies are imperfectly observed this paper studies reputation effects in games with a single long run player whose choice of stage game strategy is imperfectly observed by his opponents we obtain lower and upper bounds on the long run player s payoff in any nash equilibrium of the game if the long run player s stage game strategy is statistically identified by the observed outcomes then for generic payoffs the upper and lower bounds both converge as the discount factor tends to 1 to the long run player s stackelberg payoff which is the most he could obtain by publicly committing himself to any strategy

testing asymmetries in central bank preferences in a small open economy a study for brazil abstract in this paper we extend surico s 2007a model to an open economy and test if the brazilian central bank s loss function is asymmetric with regard to positive and negative deviations of the output gap and of the inflation rate from its target furthermore we use tests for structural breaks to investigate changes in the conduct of policy and monetary authority s preferences the results revealed that the central bank reacted more strongly to deviations of inflation from the target and the output gap after 2003 with regard to the monetary authority s preferences estimates indicate only an asymmetric preference over an above target inflation rate until mid 2003 after this period the evidence obtained by estimating the reaction function with inflation expectations showed that the central bank has been more averse to positive deviations of inflation from its target

inflation targeting credibility and non linear taylor rules abstract in this paper we systematically evaluate how central banks respond to deviations from the inflation target we present a stylized new keynesian model in which agents inflation expectations are sensitive to deviations from the inflation target to re establish credibility monetary policy under discretion sets higher interest rates today if average inflation exceeded the target in the past moreover the central bank responds non linearly to past inflation gaps this is reflected in an additional term in the central bank s instrument rule which we refer to as the credibility loss augmenting a standard taylor 1993 rule with the latter term we provide empirical evidence for the interest rate response for a sample of five inflation targeting it economies we find first that past deviations from it feed back into the reaction function and that this influence is economically meaningful deterioration in credibility ceteris paribus forces central bankers to undertake larger interest rate steps second we detect an asymmetric reaction to positive and negative credibility losses with the latter dominating the former