policy change and learning in the rbc model what is the impact of surprise and anticipated policy changes when agents form expectations using adaptive learning rather than rational expectations we examine this issue using the standard stochastic real business cycle model with lump sum taxes agents combine knowledge about future policy with econometric forecasts of future wages and interest rates dynamics under learning can have large impact effects and a gradual hump shaped response and tend to be prominently characterized by oscillations not present under rational expectations these fluctuations reflect periods of excessive optimism or pessimism followed by subsequent corrections

is there a turning point in the relationship between income and energy use and or carbon emissions abstract we analyze the effect of fuel mix model specification and the level of development on the presence and size of a turning point in the relationship between income and energy use and or carbon emissions the results indicate that fuel mix the specification for income and the level of economic development affect conclusions about whether there is a turning point in the relationship between economic activity and energy use and carbon emissions including fuel shares generally reduces the size of a turning point that is estimated from a panel that includes observations from both oecd and non oecd nations but this result varies according to the level of development for oecd nations there is limited support for a turning point in the relationship between income and per capita energy use and or carbon emissions for non oecd nations there is no turning point in the relationship between income and either energy use or carbon emissions instead the relationship is positive together the results indicate that forecasters and policy makers should not depend on a turning point in the relationship between income and energy use or carbon emissions to reduce either

environmental regulation capital output and energy efficiency in china an empirical research based on integrated energy prices abstract how to improve environmental quality and achieve high quality development of economy have become important challenges for china in the new era based on the klems framework this paper analyzes the relationship between environmental regulation factor substitution and energy saving effect by using panel structure vector autoregression model and panel data of china industry from 2004 to 2014 the following conclusions are drawn 1 china s environmental regulation can promote the substitution of capital to energy however benefit of this substitution in the long run is greater than that in the short run 2 only in the long run can china s environmental regulations have significant energy saving effect technological innovation is the main reason for the improvement of energy saving effect of environmental regulation 3 china s environmental regulation will not significantly improve the structure of capital which makes the economic benefits low finally the paper discusses the possible ways to improve china s environmental regulation from the aspects of forming a scientific environmental supervision system improving energy pricing mechanism and capital structure

environmental regulation and competitiveness empirical evidence on the porter hypothesis from european manufacturing sectors abstract this paper investigates the weak and strong versions of porter hypothesis ph focusing on the manufacturing sectors of 17 european countries between 1997 and 2009 the hypothesis that well crafted and well enforced regulation would benefit both the environment and the firm was originally proposed by porter 1991 and porter and van der linde 1995 to date the literature has analyzed the impact of environmental regulation on innovation and on productivity mostly in separate analyses and focusing on the usa the few existing contributions on europe study the effect of environmental regulation either on green innovation or on performance indicators such as exports we instead look at overall innovation and productivity impacts first focusing on overall innovative activity allows us to account for potential opportunity costs of induced innovations second productivity impacts are arguably the most relevant indicators for the strong ph as a proxy of environmental policy stringency we use pollution abatement and control expenditures pace one of the few sectoral level indicators available we remedy upon its main drawback namely potential endogeneity by adopting an instrumental variable estimation approach we find evidence of a positive impact of environmental regulation on the output of innovation activity as proxied by patents thus providing support in favor of the weak ph this result is in line with most of the literature on the other front we find no evidence in favor of the strong ph as productivity appears to be unaffected by the degree of pollution control and abatement efforts

bequest and wealth accumulation are some pieces of the puzzle missing the lively debate between laurence j kotlikoff and franco modigliani presented in the spring 1988 issue of this journal concerns an old question what is the main motivation for saving and therefore for the accumulation of wealth more specifically what are the respective contributions to aggregate wealth of 1 saving for retirement also known as hump saving 2 precautionary savings and unintended bequests due to uncertainty about the length of life and 3 planned bequests of course other wealth holding motives are possible but let us follow kotlikoff and modigliani in setting them aside for now if modigliani s life cycle hypothesis is to be viewed as a close to approximation of reality then the bulk of existing wealth should have resulted from some combination of hump and precautionary saving our comment on this dispute attempts to advance two issues first the controversy involves an enormous gap between empirical estimates of the share of inherited wealth in total accumulation even though the estimates are often based on the same data we hope to clarify why the estimates vary so widely second the kotlikoff modigliani dispute is presented as an american issue with little extension abroad we will present some results from other countries that bear on the controversy some of the estimates from kotlikofi s paper originated in a 1981 paper he wrote with lawrence summers which is why we sometimes refer to his position as the kotlikoff summers argument in this comment the problem of conceptualizing the contribution of bequest to aggregate savings can be summarized with a thought experiment assume all bequests were confiscated

real wage rigidities and the cost of disinflations this paper analyzes the cost of disinflations under real wage rigidities in a micro founded new keynesian model the conventional view is that real wage rigidities can be a useful mechanism to generate a slump in output after a credible disinflationary policy because they prevent the immediate adjustment of inflation this view is flawed since it depends on analyzing the model in a linearized framework once nonlinearities are taken into account the results change both qualitatively and quantitatively disinflations actually lead to a permanently higher level of output and real wage rigidities increase the output during the adjustment to the new steady state

the role of intergenerational transfers and life cycle saving in the accumulation of wealth he purpose of this paper is to review what economists know at present about the following question how large a portion of the existing wealth is the result of a bequest motive that is of accumulation for the specific purpose of leaving bequests i will also endeavor to clarify why an answer to this question is of interest in the early keynesian period when the study of national saving first attracted wide interest relatively little attention was paid to what led people to save though it was generally understood that the main systematic reason was to leave bequests j m keynes in the famous chapter 9 of the general theory of employment interest and money 1936 had listed seven distinct motives for saving besides the leaving of bequests but five of these which include to increase one s future income or to insure one s independence and power implied that all or nearly all the accumulation would finally wind up as bequeathed wealth this in turn meant that most private wealth originated through bequests that is it either had been received through bequests or was destined to be bequeathed and indeed how else could society accumulate wealth however keynes 1936 p 107 also mentioned two further motives precaution that is to build up a reserve against unforeseen contingencies and foresight that is to provide for an anticipated future relation between the income and the needs of the individual or his family different from that which exists in the present as for example in relation to old age family education or the maintenance of dependents these motives in contrast to most of the previous ones have the

toward a new conception of the environment competitiveness relationship accepting a fixed trade off between environmental regulation and competitiveness unnecessarily raises costs and slows down environmental progress studies finding high environmental compliance costs have traditionally focused on static cost impacts ignoring any offsetting productivity benefits from innovation they typically overestimated compliance costs neglected innovation offsets and disregarded the affected industry s initial competitiveness rather than simply adding to cost properly crafted environmental standards can trigger innovation offsets allowing companies to improve their resource productivity shifting the debate from pollution control to pollution prevention was a step forward it is now necessary to make the next step and focus on resource productivity

the wealth age relation among the aged aged people face the problem of allocating over the rest of their lifetimes the wealth that they have accumulated during their working years this problem is fairly complex because they are uncertain about the dates of their death and because they may wish to use their wealth to finance general consumption or hold it to meet emergencies leave estates or maintain power or status whether skilled at dynamic programming or not aged people effectively do make these decisions what are the results some studies of the entire lifetime pattern of saving and wealth tend to support the simple life cycle model in which the aged use up their wealth to help finance consumption harold lydall for example found saving rates to increase and then decrease with age in the whole population and to be negative for the group aged 65 and over guarded support for the theory was found by franco modigliani and albert ando in britain and by dorothy projector in the united states more recently a f shorrocks examined the lifetime pattern of wealth holding in estate tax data for a single cohort and found the hump pattern that is characteristic of life cycle saving other evidence on wealth holding runs contrary to this however in a study of estate tax returns in washington d c james d smith found that wealth increased with age among the aged after controlling for other demographic variables examining national estate tax data john brittain found wealth to increase with age in the united states and a b atkinson and a j harrison reported the same pattern in england and wales in a sample of tiaa annuity recipients analyzed by james mulanaphy over half reported that their total savings had increased during retirement and another quarter reported that their savings had remained about the same in this paper i examine wealth holding patterns among aged married couples using survey data representing the entire aged population of the united states in 1968 the statistical analysis serves as a test of the hypothesis that emerges from life cycle theory and provides some further exploration into the economic behavior of the aged i find that the aged tend to increase their wealth over time

household behavior and the marriage market abstract there is some controversy in the field of household economics regarding the efficiency of household decisions we make the point that a flexible specification of spousal preferences and the household production technology precludes the possibility of using revealed preference data on household time allocations to determine the manner in which spouses interact efficiently or inefficiently under strong but standard assumptions regarding marriage market equilibria marital sorting patterns can be used essentially as out of sample information that allows us to assess whether household behavior is efficient or not we develop a new likelihood based metric to compare marriage market fits under the two alternative behavioral assumptions we use a sample of households drawn from a recent wave of the panel study of income dynamics and find strong evidence supporting the view that household behavior is constrained efficient

learning about monetary policy rules abstract we study macroeconomic systems with forward looking private sector agents and a monetary authority that is trying to control the economy through the use of a linear policy feedback rule we use stability under recursive learning a la evans and honkapohja learning and expectations in macroeconomics princeton university press princeton new jersey 2001 as a criterion for evaluating monetary policy rules in this context we find that considering learning can alter the evaluation of alternative policy rules

empirical tests of the life cycle hypothesis comment this comment examines the contention of betsy buttrill white 1976 1978 that a multiperiod life cycle model cannot generate values of aggregate savings as large as in fact observed i argue that her results reflect an entirely arbitrary choice of parameters and that for other equally plausible values of these parameters the life cycle model generates saving similar to or greater than that actually observed hence the model cannot be rejected as white proposes on the basis of such a simple test of plausibility it should be noted at the outset that the argument of this paper is distinct from that of lars soderstrom 1982 who accepts white s basic result and then shows that if the structure is generalized to incorporate stochastic lifetimes the result is not robust my argument here is that white s contention is incorrect when examined on its own terms

towards integrated social ecological sustainability indicators exploring the contribution and gaps in existing global data sustainable development goals sdgs which recognise the interconnections between social economic and ecological systems have ignited new interest in indicators able to integrate trends in and

the energy gdp relationship in developing countries empirical evidence and stability tests abstract the elasticity of energy consumption with respect to gdp is an important element in projecting energy needs in economic development this study uses cross section and pooled cross section time series data to find that the elasticity of energy consumption with respect to gdp in developing countries is in the neighbourhood of 1 35 and significantly above one over the period covered 1970 to 1976 the relationships appear to have remained stable there are significant differences between areas of the world but the differences in the elasticities between different continents are not large

who marries whom and why this paper proposes and estimates a static transferable utility model of the marriage market the model generates a nonparametric marriage matching function with spillover effects it rationalizes the standard interpretation of marriage rate regressions and points out its limitations the model was used to estimate u s marital behavior in 1971 72 and 1981 82 the marriage matching function estimates show that the gains to marriage for young adults fell substantially over the decade unlike contradictory marriage rate regression results the marriage matching function estimates showed that the legalization of abortion had a significant quantitative impact on the fall in the gains to marriage for young men and women

measuring sustainable development some empirical evidence for france from eight alternative indicators abstract this paper presents results from a time series analysis of eight measures of development and or sustainability for france the measures chosen are green national net product genuine savings ecological footprint indicator of sustainable economic welfare genuine progress indicator pollution sensitive human development indicator sustainable human development indicator and french dashboard on sustainable development a theoretical description of each index highlights their advantages and drawbacks underlining the fact that no indicator is perfect and no one can give an exhaustive view of sustainable development therefore the analysis of various indicators is necessary to evaluate sustainable development with accuracy empirical results of measures of well being show that french development was improving between 1990 and 2000 concerning sustainability indicators support different conclusions it seems that french development was weakly sustainable but unsustainable in the strong sense over the period examined

anticipated disinflation and recession in the new keynesian model under learning abstract in the new keynesian model under rational expectations a disinflation announced in advance causes an expansion this anomaly is robust to the assumption that monetary policy follows a taylor rule i show that under adaptive learning an anticipated disinflation causes a recession thus learning offers a resolution to the disinflationary booms anomaly

anticipated fiscal policy and adaptive learning abstract the impact of anticipated policy changes when agents form expectations using adaptive learning rather than rational expectations is considered agents are assumed to combine limited structural knowledge with a standard adaptive learning rule these issues are analyzed using two well known set ups an endowment economy and the ramsey model in our scenario there are important deviations from both rational expectations and purely adaptive learning the approach could be applied to other frameworks

induced innovation and energy prices this paper uses u s patent data from 1970 to 1994 to study the impact of energy prices on energy efficient innovations theories of technological change have focused both on demand side factors which spur innovative activity by increasing the value of new innovations and supply side factors such as scientific advancements that make new innovations possible data on demand side factors are easily obtained but data on supply side factors that influence innovation are not readily available this paper uses patent citations as a measure of the usefulness of the existing base of scientific knowledge citations to previous patents are used to construct productivity estimates which measure the usefulness of the existing stock of knowledge to inventors in a given energy field for any given year these estimates are then combined with data on demand side factors to estimate a model of induced innovation in energy technologies the results indicate that both energy prices and the supply of knowledge have strongly significant positive effects on innovation the paper concludes with a discussion of the implication of this work for environmental policy

literature survey on the relationships between energy environment and economic growth abstract the aim of this study is to exhibit an exhaustive survey which is related to the great flight of the literature of energy environment growth nexus at the individual and regional scale studies covering the period from 1978 to 2014 the survey takes into consideration the sample country region etc periods covering econometric strategies and conclusions our survey is based on the causality direction among i the energy use variables electricity nuclear renewable and non renewable and output growth ii between economic growth and environment and between the three variables at the same time globally these surveys provide paradoxical and not conclusive results which energy consumption can boost economic growth through the productivity enhancement and it can boost also the environmental damages through the enhancement of pollutant emissions our survey sheds more the lights on the energy environment growth literature by giving an extensive listing 1978 2014 of these causal linkages among the energy use variables environment and economic growth for both individual and collective cases there is a unanimous consensus about the importance of dealing with such dynamic relationship which is seems to be a cornerstone element in setting any ambition strategies energy ecological and economics

how does the marriage market clear an empirical framework the paper surveys the choo and siow 2006a cs marriage matching model and its extensions cs derives a behavioural marriage matching function the collective model of intra household allocations can be integrated into this framework spousal labour supplies respond to changing marriage market conditions marriage market tightness the ratio of unmarried type i men to unmarried type j women is a sufficient statistic for marriage market conditions for those types of individuals the hypothesis that spousal labour supplies vary to equilibrate the marriage market has overidentifying restrictions the framework extends to a dynamic marriage matching environment empirically this paper shows how the famine caused by the great leap forward in sichuan affected the marital behaviour of famine born cohorts marriage market tightness is shown to be a useful statistic for summarizing marriage market conditions in the united states marriage market conditions in the contemporary united states primarily affect spousal labour force participation rather than hours of work ce texte examine le modele de choo et siow et ses extensions ce modele derive une fonction comportemental d arrimage sur le marche du mariage le modele d allocation intra menage des t ches peut s integrer a ce cadre d analyse les offres de travail des epoux repondent aux conditions changeantes du marche du mariage un marche du mariage serre un ratio d hommes celibataires de type i par rapport a un nombre de femmes celibataires de type j constitue une statistique suffisante pour etablir les conditions de marche de ces types d individus l hypothese que les offres de travail des epoux varient pour equilibrer le marche du mariage engendre des restrictions de sur identification le cadre d analyse couvre le cas d un environnement dynamique d arrimage empiriquement ce memoire montre comment la famine causee par le grand saut en avant de sichuan a affecte le comportement de mariage des cohortes qui en sort sorties on montre aussi que le caractere serre du marche du mariage aux etats unis fournit une statistique utile pour prendre le pouls des conditions du marche du mariage ces conditions dans le monde contemporain aux etats unis ont un impact sur la participation des epoux au marche du travail plutot que sur les heures travaillees

staggered wages and output dynamics under disinflation we study the output costs of a reduction in monetary growth in a dynamic general equilibrium model with staggered wages the money wage is fixed for two periods and is chosen according to intertemporal optimisation agents have labour market monopoly power we show that the introduction of microfoundations helps to resolve the puzzle raised by directly postulated models namely that disinflation in staggered pricing models causes a boom in our model disinflation whether unanticipated or anticipated unambiguously causes a slump

uncertain lifetime consumption and dissaving in retirement this paper asks whether the continued accumulation or mild dissaving observed among the retired can be explained by uncertain lifetime in the absence of annuities after an initial period influenced by borrowing constraints under constant relative risk aversion uncertain lifetime depresses consumption by a proportion increasing with age if the elasticity of intertemporal substitution in consumption is small illustrative computations based on actual income and survival data show that plausible elasticities are sufficiently small to give this effect the reduction in consumption is large enough to explain much of the lack of decumulation by the elderly

two sex demographic models classical stable population theory the standard model of population age structure and growth is ill suited to addressing many issues that concern economists and demographers because it is a one sex theory this paper investigates the existence uniqueness and dynamic stability of equilibrium in the birth matrix mating rule bmmr model a new model of age structure and growth for two sex monogamously mating populations the paper shows by means of examples that the bmmr model can have multiple nontrivial equilibria and establishes sufficient conditions for uniqueness it generalizes a theorem of w brian arthur to nonlinear systems and uses it to establish sufficient conditions for local dynamic stability

on inflation and output with costly price changes a simple unifying result this paper determines the real effects of credible disinflation when price setting is staggered the results are surprising a fairly quick disinflation causes a boom this finding suggests that nominal price rigidity alone does not explain why disinflation is costly in actual economies this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

pension wealth and individual saving some new evidence attemprs to measure the tmpact of soctal security and private pensions on household saving have occupied much of the literature in empirical public finance over the past decade empirical estimates of those impacts have been quite varied see the discussion in aaron 1982 this paper provides new estimates of the impact of changes in holdings of social security and private pension annuities on the level of non pension wealth the data examined are drawn from surveys conducted for the u s president s commission on pension policy the impact of the social security system on individual saving has been a concern since feldstein s 1974 pioneering paper l the theoretical argument of feldstein and of barro 1974 1978 centers around the funding status of social security i e the degree to which an unfunded social security system reduces private saving empirical tests of the effects of social security on saving in this line of research have been conducted in the perfect certainty version of the life cycle model modigliani and ando 1957 modigliani and brumberg 1954 in that approach social security affects non pension saving through its impact on individual intertemporal budget constraints disposable income during the working period falls by the amount of

measuring environmental policy stringency approaches validity and impact on environmental innovation and energy efficiency abstract solid tests of the impact of environmental and energy policy on important economic outcomes such as innovation productivity competitiveness and energy and carbon efficiency are impaired by the lack of appropriate empirical proxies for the commitment to and stringency of environmental policy we contribute to the literature by 1 computing different indicators of environmental policy stringency 2 testing to what extent they convey similar insights through a statistical comparison exercise and 3 showing the implications of using one or the other indicator in two illustrative empirical applications focused on environmental innovation and energy efficiency we conclude by highlighting the implications of our analysis for empirical research focusing on the evaluation of policy impacts and highlight fruitful future research avenues

a literature survey on energy growth nexus abstract this paper provides a survey of the recent progress in the literature of energy consumption economic growth and electricity consumption economic growth causality nexus the survey highlights that most empirical studies focus on either testing the role of energy electricity in stimulating economic growth or examining the direction of causality between these two variables although the positive role of energy on growth has become a stylized fact there are some methodological reservations about the results from these empirical studies a general observation from these studies is that the literature produced conflicting results and there is no consensus neither on the existence nor on the direction of causality between energy consumption electricity consumption and economic growth as a policy implication to avoid from conflicting and unreliable results the authors may use the autoregressive distributed lags bounds test two regime threshold co integration models panel data approach and multivariate models including new variables such as real gross fixed capital formation labor force carbon dioxide emissions population exchange rates interest rates etc thus the authors should focus more on the new approaches and perspectives rather than by employing usual methods based on a set of common variables for different countries and different intervals of time