the well being of the elderly and wage arrears in russia about one third of households with elderly were not paid their wages during the mid 1990s in russia applying matching estimations to a nationally representative survey the study shows that wage arrears had detrimental effects on the well being of the elderly in these families salaries in households with wage arrears dropped by almost two thirds income fell by more than one third and poverty doubled behavioral responses were only partly effective the net revenue loss amounted to five sixths of the wage shock for men and nine tenths of the wage shock for women the elderly cut back on food expenses by reducing food purchases and adjusting their diet towards cheaper calories economising on expenses equal to around one quarter of the wage reduction caloric and protein intakes dropped although less than income and the nutritional content of food consumption with regard to vitamins and minerals deteriorated wage arrears worsened male health more than female health even though the decline in income was comparable functional limitations rose by 8 for men and 3 for women and self rated health declined by 2 5 for men and 0 5 for women old age men with arrears were almost twice as likely to die before the next survey round and functional limitations of surviving men rose by more than 10 by contrast there was no impact on the next round s health status of old age women a rich data set is used to discount alternative explanations including feedback from health to income other economic factors health service access health behavior and environmental conditions jel i12 i30 j14 j30

a soft pillow for hard times economic insecurity food intake and body weight in russia this study investigates causal effects of economic insecurity on subjective anxiety food intake and weight outcomes a review of psychological and nutrition studies highlights the complexity of processes at work on each stage of this causal chain econometric analyses trace the effects along the hypothesized pathway using detailed household panel data from the russia longitudinal monitoring survey from 1994 to 2005 economic insecurity measures serve as key explanatory variables in regressions and are instrumented by exogenous regional indicators results support a causal chain from economic insecurity to weight outcomes for some population subgroups in contrast to the leading hypothesis that economic insecurity increases body weight i find strong evidence of a decreasing effect among women results suggest further that consumption of foods rich in sugar responds strongly to higher levels of economic insecurity heterogeneous impacts of economic insecurity on body weight call for individual level interventions rather than large scale action

frontiers of real time data analysis in the past ten years researchers have explored the impact of data revisions in many different contexts researchers have examined the properties of data revisions how structural modeling is affected by data revisions how data revisions affect forecasting the impact of data revisions on monetary policy analysis and the use of real time data in current analysis this paper summarizes many of the questions for which real time data analysis has provided answers in addition researchers and institutions have developed better real time data sets around the world still additional research is needed in key areas and research to date has uncovered even more fruitful areas worth exploring jel c52 c53 c80 e01

foreign direct investment and employment rights in south eastern europe the dominant neoliberal policy community holds that a reduction in employment rights and social protection is likely to promote economic recovery and growth it has been suggested that investors are likely to shun countries where such rights are strong in contrast radical labour market deregulation is seen as encouraging both local business and multinationals to invest this study explores whether labour market deregulation in south eastern europe has really encouraged multinationals to invest in the region we find that the weakening of important aspects of employment rights under the law appears to detract from rather than encourage foreign direct investment fdi we also show that stronger employment rights are more likely to attract fdi when the host country is located within the european union this finding suggests that the complementarities associated with stronger employment rights and more committed labour may offset the overall deterrent effects of the greater regulation associated with eu membership

more labour market flexibility for more innovation evidence from employer employee linked micro data this paper examines labour market flexibility in various definitions and its impact on innovation the results demonstrate that the relationship strongly depends on the type of innovation as well as the predominant innovation regime in which a company operates thereby labour market flexibility does not influence innovation in an entrepreneurial innovation regime characterised by high competition low market entry barriers and generally available knowledge that might explain why the silicon valley has been successful despite of having a labour market with a strong strong hire and fire mentality in contrast labour market flexibility significantly reduces the likelihood of innovation in a routinised innovation regime with leading innovators and high entry barriers similar to the us automobile industry and steel districts that did not succeed these findings emphasise that the currently discussed structural labour market reforms might hamper innovation as technological change still requires a level of security and stability

labour market deregulation flexibility and innovation labour flexibility is often portrayed as important to competitive success using evidence from an original survey of uk firms this paper investigates the relationships between firms use of on the one hand various flexible work practices human resource management techniques and industrial relations systems and on the other hand the innovative activities of those firms our results suggest that the sort of low road labour flexibility practices encouraged by labour market deregulation short term and temporary contracts a lack of employer commitment to job security low levels of training and so on are negatively correlated with innovation

the effects of unions on investment and innovation evidence from wirs the above is representative of much popular discussion of the effects of unions on investment and innovation in the professional literature the view that unions deter investment by expropriating quasi rents is also commonplace see e g simons i944 baldwin i983 grout i984 in addition it is argued that union foisted restrictive work practices might make investment a more costly process see e g denny and nickell i989 in recent years the above theoretical notions have appeared to receive some empirical support in that in the united states the level of the investment capital ratio does appear to be lower in union firms see hirsch i988 and references therein in this paper we use information contained in the i 984 workplace industrial relations survey in order to investigate the actual impact of unions on investment the rest of the paper is organised as follows in section i i we informally review the alternative channels through which unions might affect investment section i 2 contains a simple theoretical model of investment which embodies all the alternative channels our results are to be found in section ii and finally some conclusions are contained in section iii

nutritional status during an economic crisis evidence from russia between 1996 and 1998 russia experienced a spectacular decline in economic activity which was followed by a dramatic rebound between 1998 and 2000 we use panel data to examine the impact of variation in household resources on six dimensions of nutritional status distinguishing longer run from short term fluctuations in resources nutritional status is very resilient to short term variation in household resources gross energy intake adult weight and child stature change very little as expenditure deviates from its long run average longer run resources have a substantively large positive and significant effect on energy intake diet quality adult weight and child stature the evidence indicates that individuals and households are able to weather short term fluctuations in economic resources at least in terms of maintaining body mass and energy intake increased globalisation has resulted in many less developed countries becoming more integrated into world markets this integration carries both benefits and costs for the populations of those countries an oft cited cost is elevated risk of exposure to economic fluctuations which has been manifest in several spectacular economic crises across the globe in the last few decades there is however little evidence on the extent to which individuals and families are able to mitigate deleterious effects of these economic upheavals on their well being in spite of its importance for understanding the consequences of globalisation this article provides new evidence on this issue specifically we examine the relationship between several dimensions of nutritional well being and variation in household resources during the russian economic crisis in the late 1990s the economies of the former soviet bloc have been especially volatile since the transition to market based economies which began in the early 1990s nowhere has this been more true than in russia where in the last half of 1998 real gdp collapsed by around 30 and then rapid growth brought the economy back to its pre crisis level by 2000 the time path of changes in gdp is closely mimicked by changes in the incomes and expenditures of russian households using extremely rich longitudinal household survey data from the russian longitudinal monitoring survey rlms we examine the impact of these large fluctuations in household resources on nutrient intake and on anthropometric markers of nutritional status at the individual level in so doing we address an important issue in the literature regarding the extent to which households in low income settings are able

law finance and innovation the dark side of shareholder protection proponents of minority shareholder protection state that national legal institutions protecting small investors boost stock markets and in turn the long term performance of countries in this paper we empirically challenge this argument we perform three stage least squares estimation on a sample of 48 countries during 1993 2006 and find that countries with stronger shareholder protection tend to have larger market capitalisation but also lower innovative activity we cope with stock market endogeneity and industry heterogeneity and circumvent omitted variables bias so that this finding is unlikely to be driven by misspecification problems the estimation results are interpreted arguing that stronger shareholder protection may depress rather than encourage the most valuable corporate productions because it enables small and diversified shareholders to play opportunistic actions against undiversified stockholders after specific investments are undertaken by the company innovative activity largely based on specific investing is particularly exposed to this problem copyright oxford university press

corporate governance and innovation a survey abstract the traditional economics of innovation inspired by schumpeter and more recent advances on his work seem unable to explain why firms with similar external conditions may show greatly different performance in innovation contrastingly the literature on corporate governance provides some useful insights for understanding corporate innovation activity to the extent that such literature examines the economic effects of different modes of coordination between firm members the process through which individuals integrate their human and physical resources within the firm is central to the dynamics of corporate innovation this paper provides the first survey of the literature on this issue we start by discussing how various theoretical approaches to the analysis of the firm deal with technological innovation we then describe three main channels corporate ownership corporate finance and labour through which a system of corporate governance shapes a firm s innovation activity finally we examine the relationship between country level institutional settings national patterns of corporate governance and the aggregate innovation activity of corporations we conclude by suggesting that future research should focus more deeply on the interrelation between the various dimensions of corporate governance and on their joint effect on firm innovation

the impact of obesity on wages abstract previous studies of the relationship between body weight and wages have found mixed results this paper uses a larger data set and several regres sion strategies in an attempt to generate more consistent estimates of the effect of weight on wages differences across gender race and ethnicity are explored this paperjnds that weight lowers wages for white females ols esti mates indicate that a difference in weight of two standard deviations roughly 65 pounds is associated with a difference in wages of 9 percent in absolute value this is equivalent to the wage effect of roughly one and a half years of education or three years of work experience negative cor relations between weight and wages observed for other gender ethnic groups appear to be due to unobserved heterogeneity i introduction several previous studies have found among females a negative cor relation between body weight and wages there exist three broad categories of ex planations for this finding the first explanation is that obesity lowers wages for example by lowering productivity or because of workplace discrimination the sec ond is that low wages cause obesity this would be true if poorer people consume

labor flexibility and innovation in new ventures the study investigates how labor flexibility affects innovation in new ventures more specifically drawing upon a sample of 143 greek ventures less than 8 years old it examines empirically the individual and interactive effects of functional and numerical flexibility on product innovation it also considers how these effects are moderated by the entrepreneur s political skill results suggest that functional flexibility has a positive direct effect on incremental innovation whereas numerical flexibility has a positive direct effect on radical innovation the interactions between numerical and functional flexibility affect both types of innovation the results also suggest that the labor flexibility innovation relationship is positively moderated by the entrepreneur s political skill these findings point toward aspects of knowledge related with flexible labor engagement and entrepreneurial relational capital that affect innovation

weaker jobs weaker innovation exploring the effects of temporary employment on new products this work explores the relationship between temporary employment and product innovation focusing on five major european economies france germany italy spain and the netherlands observed betwee

first announcements and real economic activity the recent literature suggests that first announcements of real output growth in the us have predictive power for the future course of the economy while the actual value of output growth does not we show that this need not point to a behavioural relationship whereby agents respond to perceptions instead of the truth but may instead simply be a by product of the data revision process the revisions to the initial estimates which define the final values of the observations are shown to be key in determining any relationship between first announcements and the future course of the economy c 2010 elsevier b v all rights reserved

temporary hires and innovative investments the flexicurity approach claims a positive effect of flexible labour on firm performance also through an increased ability to innovate critics consider it a deregulation of the labour market decreasing investment in human capital and innovation we contribute to this broad debate providing an estimate of the relationships linking innovative investment substitution investment permanent hires and temporary hires in particular we aim at affirming or denying that innovative investments are accompanied by a specific kind of workforce being it stable or flexible in doing so we contribute to bridge the gap among two quite separate strands of literature as existing literature usually analyses capital and labour separately estimating a nonlinear recursive equation system we highlight a significant increase in the likelihood of hiring on a permanent base when the firm innovates this holds till 2008 afterward during the crisis innovating firms are more likely to hire using temporary contracts instead

a novel hybrid method for crude oil price forecasting abstract forecasting crude oil price is a challenging task given the nonlinear and time varying characteristics of international crude oil prices we propose a novel hybrid method to forecast crude oil prices first we use the ensemble empirical mode decomposition eemd method to decompose international crude oil price into a series of independent intrinsic mode functions imfs and the residual term then the least square support vector machine together with the particle swarm optimization lssvm pso method and the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity garch model are developed to forecast the nonlinear and time varying components of crude oil prices respectively next the forecasted crude oil prices of each component are summed as the final forecasted results of crude oil prices the results show that the newly proposed hybrid method has a strong forecasting capability for crude oil prices due to its excellent performance in adaptation to the random sample selection data frequency and structural breaks in samples furthermore the comparison results also indicate that the new method proves superior in forecasting accuracy to those well recognized methods for crude oil price forecasting

evaluating innovation and labour market relationships the case of italy in this paper the link between labour market flexibility and innovation is analysed paying particular attention to the different technological regimes of economic activities and the different geographical areas of the italian economy a dynamic panel data specification is used to assess the endogenous relationship between patents included as a proxy of the innovation and job turnover and wages which represent labour market indicators the results show that higher job turnover only has a significant and negative impact on patent activities in regional sectors of northern italy while a positive and significant impact of blue and white collar wages has been generally found

income shocks consumption wealth and human capital evidence from russia abstract using the russia longitudinal monitoring survey this article investigates how russian households consumption responds to income shocks and in particular how household wealth and human capital affect the households ability to smooth consumption an instrumental variable estimation method with household fixed effects is implemented after correcting for potential problems of sample attrition using the inverse probability weighting method the article finds that household consumption in russia is only partially protected from idiosyncratic shocks the analysis also provides evidence that wealthier households can better smooth their consumption furthermore changes in income have less impact on consumption when households have members with higher education levels wealth effects are more pronounced in rural areas while education effects are stronger for urban households

what central bankers need to know about forecasting oil prices central banks routinely use short horizon forecasts of the quarterly price of oil in assessing the global and domestic economic outlook we address a number of econometric issues specific to the construction of quarterly oil price forecasts in the united states and abroad we show that quarterly forecasts of the real price of oil from suitably designed vector autoregressive models estimated on monthly data generate the most accurate real time forecasts overall among a wide range of methods including quarterly averages of forecasts based on monthly oil futures prices no change forecasts and forecasts based on regression models estimated on quarterly data

the central banker as a risk manager estimating the federal reserve s preferences under greenspan we derive a natural generalization of the taylor rule that links changes in the interest rate to the balance of the risks implied by the dual objective of sustainable economic growth and price stability this monetary policy rule reconciles economic models of expected utility maximization with the risk management approach to central banking within this framework we formally test and reject the standard assumption of quadratic and symmetric preferences in inflation and output that underlies the derivation of the taylor rule our results suggest that fed policy decisions under greenspan were better described in terms of the fed weighing upside and downside risks to their objectives rather than simply responding to the conditional mean of inflation and of the output gap

multivariate density forecast evaluation and calibration in financial risk management high frequency returns on foreign exchange we provide a framework for evaluating and improving multivariate density forecasts among other things the multivariate framework lets us evaluate the adequacy of density forecasts involving cross variable interactions such as time varying conditional correlations we also provide conditions under which a technique of density forecast calibration can be used to improve deficient density forecasts and we show how the calibration method can be used to generate good density forecasts from econometric models even when the conditional density is unknown finally motivated by recent advances in financial risk management we provide a detailed application to multivariate high frequency exchange rate density forecasts

what do we learn from the price of crude oil futures summary despite their widespread use as predictors of the spot price of oil oil futures prices tend to be less accurate in the mean squared prediction error sense than no change forecasts this result is driven by the variability of the futures price about the spot price as captured by the oil futures spread this variability can be explained by the marginal convenience yield of oil inventories using a two country multi period general equilibrium model of the spot and futures markets for crude oil we show that increased uncertainty about future oil supply shortfalls under plausible assumptions causes the spread to decline increased uncertainty also causes precautionary demand for oil to increase resulting in an immediate increase in the real spot price thus the negative of the oil futures spread may be viewed as an indicator of fluctuations in the price of crude oil driven by precautionary demand an empirical analysis of this indicator provides evidence of how shifts in the uncertainty about future oil supply shortfalls affect the real spot price of crude oil copyright 2010 john wiley sons ltd

do oil prices help forecast u s real gdp the role of nonlinearities and asymmetries there is a long tradition of using oil prices to forecast u s real gdp it has been suggested that the predictive relationship between the price of oil and one quarter ahead u s real gdp is nonlinear in that a oil price increases matter only to the extent that they exceed the maximum oil price in recent years and that b oil price decreases do not matter at all we examine first whether the evidence of in sample predictability in support of this view extends to out of sample forecasts second we discuss how to extend this forecasting approach to higher horizons third we compare the resulting class of nonlinear models to alternative economically plausible nonlinear specifications and examine which aspect of the model is most useful for forecasting we show that the asymmetry embodied in commonly used nonlinear transformations of the price of oil is not helpful for out of sample forecasting more robust and often more accurate real gdp forecasts are obtained from symmetric nonlinear models based

quantifying the speculative component in the real price of oil the role of global oil inventories abstract one of the central questions of policy interest in recent years has been how many dollars of the inflation adjusted price of oil must be attributed to speculative demand for oil stocks at each point in time we develop statistical tools that allow us to address this question and we use these tools to explore how the use of two alternative proxies for global crude oil inventories affects the empirical evidence for speculation notwithstanding some differences overall these inventory proxies yield similar results while there is evidence of speculative demand raising the price in mid 2008 by between 5 and 14 dollars depending on the inventory specification there is no evidence of speculative demand pressures between early 2003 and early 2008 as a result current policy efforts aimed at tightening the regulation of oil derivatives markets cannot be expected to lower the real price of oil in the physical market we also provide evidence that the libyan crisis in 2011 shifted expectations in oil markets resulting in a price increase of between 3 and 13 dollars depending on the inventory specification with regard to tensions with iran in 2012 the implied price premium ranges from 0 to 9 dollars

macroeconomic forecasting performance under alternative specifications of time varying volatility summary this paper compares alternative models of time varying volatility on the basis of the accuracy of real time point and density forecasts of key macroeconomic time series for the usa we consider bayesian autoregressive and vector autoregressive models that incorporate some form of time varying volatility precisely random walk stochastic volatility stochastic volatility following a stationary ar process stochastic volatility coupled with fat tails garch and mixture of innovation models the results show that the ar and var specifications with conventional stochastic volatility dominate other volatility specifications in terms of point forecasting to some degree and density forecasting to a greater degree copyright 2014 john wiley sons ltd

schumpeterian patterns of innovation using patent data for four countries germany france united kingdom and italy for the period 1968 1986 the authors find that the patterns of innovative activities differ systematically across technological classes while remarkable similarities emerge across countries in the patterns of innovative activities for each technological class this result strongly suggests that technological imperatives and technology specific factors closely linked to technological regimes play a major role in determining the patterns of innovative activities across countries schumpeter proposed two major patterns of innovative activities the first one labelled by nelson and winter 1982 and kamien and schwartz 1982 as schumpeter mark i is proposed in the theory of economic development 1934 in this work schumpeter examined the typical european industrial structure of the late nineteenth century characterised by many small firms according to this view the pattern of innovative activity is characterised by technological ease of entry in an industry and by a major role played by new firms in innovative activities new entrepreneurs come in an industry with new ideas new products or new processes launch new enterprises which challenge established firms and thus continuously disrupt the current ways of production organisation and distribution and wipe out the quasi rents associated with previous innovations the second one labelled schumpeter mark ii is proposed in capitalism socialism and democracy 1942 in this work inspired by the features of the american industry of the first half of the twentieth century schumpeter discussed the relevance of the industrial r d laboratory for technological innovation and the key role of large firms according to this view the pattern of innovative activities is characterised by the prevalence of large established firms and by relevant barriers to entry for new innovators large firms have institutionalised the innovation process with the creation of r d laboratories filled with researchers technicians and engineers with their accumulated stock of knowledge in specific technological areas their advanced competence in large scale r d projects production and distribution and their relevant financial resources they create barriers to entry to new entrepreneurs and small firms

unions collective relations laws and r d investment in emerging and developing countries abstract many scholars argue that workforce unionization leads to a reduction in r d investment because unions appropriate a share of the returns to successful inventive efforts on the other hand it is widely acknowledged that unions may encourage investment in r d because of increased cooperation between workers and management our empirical analysis on cross country firm level data from 23 emerging and developing countries reveals a negative association between workforce unionization and firms r d investment this association is particularly pronounced when unions are protected by strong collective relations laws supporting the notion that strong unions tax the returns to successful inventions our findings have implications for policy makers who seek to improve emerging countries chances of catching up to the technological frontier and for firm leaders concerned about the appropriation of returns to their r d investments

quantifying the risk of deflation we propose formal and quantitative measures of the risk that future inflation will be excessively high or low relative to the range preferred by a private sector agent unlike alternative measures of risk our measures are designed to make explicit the dependence of risk measures on the private sector agent s preferences with respect to inflation we illustrate our methodology by estimating the risks of deflation for the united states germany and japan for horizons of up to 2 years the question of how large these risks are has been subject to considerable public debate we find that as of september 2002 when this question first arose there was no evidence of substantial deflation risks for the united states and for germany contrary to some conjectures at the time in contrast there was evidence of substantial deflation risks in japan

estimating and forecasting the real prices of crude oil a data rich model using a dynamic model averaging dma approach given that oil price fluctuations have been of great interest for macroeconomics in the recent years due to its important implications for future inflation economic growth and policy making the aim of this paper is to estimate and forecast west texas intermediate wti crude oil prices using a large monthly dataset that covers the period from march 1983 to december 2011 to achieve this aim forecasting with factor models offers a usual approach that utilizes large datasets however a forecasting model which simply includes all factors in state space equation and does not allow for time varying may be not suitable with a highly volatile market such as oil market to overcome these limitations an approach that accounts both for parameter and model uncertainty is employed in particular this study uses the dynamic model averaging dma approach suggested by koop and korobilis 2012 the key element of the dma approach is that it allows both for model and parameter to vary at each point of time by doing so the dma is robust to structural breaks empirical findings show that dma approach outperforms any other alternative model used in the forecasting exercise results also show that there is model but not parameter variation in this oil price forecasting exercise finally the findings suggest that the dma approach provides a better proxy of expected spot prices than future prices

measuring economic insecurity we provide a systematic treatment of the notion of economic insecurity assuming that an individual s sentiment of insecurity depends on the current wealth level and its variations experienced in the past we think of wealth as a comprehensive variable encompassing anything that may help in coping with adverse occurrences the current wealth level could also be interpreted as incorporating the individual s evaluation of future prospects variations in wealth experienced in the recent past are given higher weight than experiences that occurred in the more distant past two classes of measures are characterized with sets of plausible and intuitive axioms

scientific labour markets networks and regional innovation systems lawton smith h and waters r scientific labour markets networks and regional innovation systems regional studies while quality of the labour force in a locality is the single most important component of local competitiveness the regional innovation systems literature has relatively neglected processes of labour force development this paper addresses two questions what is the role of labour markets in the making of regions as innovative systems and what is the role of labour markets in regional innovation systems the labour market and specifically the networks that exist between highly skilled workers are positioned at the centre of the analysis using evidence from the uk high technology economies of cambridgeshire and oxfordshire lawton smith h and waters r lawton smith h et wat

modelling the innovation value chain innovation events the introduction of new products or processes represent the end of a process of knowledge sourcing and transformation they also represent the beginning of a process of exploitation which may result in an improvement in the performance of the innovating business this recursive process of knowledge sourcing transformation and exploitation comprises the innovation value chain modelling the innovation value chain for a large group of manufacturing firms in ireland and northern ireland highlights the drivers of innovation productivity and firm growth in terms of knowledge sourcing we find strong complementarity between horizontal forwards backwards public and internal knowledge sourcing activities each of these forms of knowledge sourcing also makes a positive contribution to innovation in both products and processes although public knowledge sources have only an indirect effect on innovation outputs in the exploitation phase innovation in both products and processes contribute positively tocompany growth with product innovation having a short term disruption effect on labour productivity modelling the complete innovation value chain highlights the structure and complexity of the process of translating knowledge into business value and emphasises the role of skills capital investment and firms other resources in the value creation process

work arrangements and firm innovation is there any relationship this study investigates the relationship between labour market flexibility proxied by the proportion of workers with different contractual arrangements and other indicators of flexible work relations and firms innovative ability as measured by the percentage of new products in total sales on the one hand more flexibility e g a higher labour turnover might be favourable to a firm s innovation potential aside from having potential wage savings a larger inflow of new personnel may enrich the pool of firm innovative ideas on the other hand higher work flexibility may also have some drawbacks a permanently high turnover rate may diminish social cohesion and trust and increase the probability of opportunistic behaviour results suggest that internal flexibility is positively associated with innovation for both high tech and low tech firms especially for high tech firms however greater external flexibility might hinder innovation copyright oxford university press

are there gains from pooling real time oil price forecasts the answer as to whether there are gains from pooling real time oil price forecasts depends on the objective the approach of combining five of the leading forecasting models with equal weights dominates the strategy of selecting one model and using it for all horizons up to two years

knowledge capabilities and manufacturing innovation a us europe comparison roper s youtie j shapira p and fernandez ribas a knowledge capabilities and manufacturing innovation a usa europe comparison regional studies this paper presents a comparative analysis of factors contributing to the innovation performance of manufacturing firms in georgia usa wales uk the west midlands uk and catalonia spain enabled by comparable survey data multivariate probit models are developed to estimate how various types of firms innovative activities are influenced by links to external knowledge sources internal resources absorptive capacity and public innovation support the results suggest the potential for mutual learning for the european study regions there are insights about how universities in georgia support innovation for georgia and catalonia there are lessons from uk firms about better capturing potential complementarities between innovation activities additional implications for innovation measurement and knowledge base development are discussed roper s

mobility and innovation a cross country comparison in the video games industry open labour markets are often seen as a precondition for innovation particularly for new industries however this view ignores two core findings of the economic systems literature first that mobility patterns are institutional microsystems that need to be complementary to other institutions in the labour market and second that new industries may be characterised by incremental and complex innovation based on these considerations we ask how mobility affects innovation in the video games industry in the us and japan we find that inter firm mobility is beneficial for innovation in the us but has negative effects in japan we further find that inter functional mobility is beneficial for innovation in both countries our analysis is based on career histories from the video games industry in the us and japan we present an empirical study based on the game development of 815 video games and the careers of 28 426 video game developers who were involved in the development of games released between 1999 and 2009

little innovation many jobs an econometric analysis of the italian labour productivity crisis during the past twenty years italy has realized changes in labour legislation leading to a decentralization of wage bargaining and increased flexibility in labour relations both these factors have helped to curb wage growth and to enhance employment growth but have also led to a crisis in italian labour productivity growth our estimates among 3 000 firms show that firms with high shares of flexible workers a high labour turnover and lower costs of labour relative to capital experienced significantly lower rates of labour productivity growth our findings raise doubts about the mainstream call for flexibilisation of european labour markets we argue hat the italian shift towards a low productive and labour intensive growth path is problematic gainst the background of an ageing population

women in transition changes in gender wage differentials in eastern europe and the former soviet union under state socialism women fared relatively well in the labor market female male wage differentials were similar to those in the west and female labor force participation rates were among the h

welfare based income insecurity in the us and germany evidence from harmonized panel data this paper develops normative approaches for measuring individual level income insecurity using concepts derived from expected utility theory and prospect theory we build a suite of measures designed to capture various facets of psychologically distressing income risk we present an application for the us and germany from 1993 2013 employing conditionally heteroskedastic fixed effects models to generate predictive densities for future incomes our results reveal much higher levels of income risk in the us relative to germany which can be mostly attributed to a higher level of autonomous time invariant volatility state by state variations in liberal conservative political administrations partially explain our results and we find some evidence that trade exposure is a contributing factor in the us

protecting energy intakes against income shocks whether and how changes in economic circumstances or household income affect individuals diet and nutritional intakes is of substantial interest for policy purposes this paper exploits a period of substantial income volatility in russia to examine the extent to which as well as how individuals protect their energy intakes in the face of unanticipated shocks to household income using rich data from the russia longitudinal monitoring survey our results suggest that households use substitution disproportionally cutting back spending on non foods to protect spending on foods change the composition of the consumption basket and increase the consumption of cheaper calories taken together however we find that total energy intakes as well as the nutritional composition of the diet are almost fully protected against income shocks specifically we find that 12 16 of the effect of permanent income shocks on food expenditures is transmitted to energy intakes with 84 88 protected through insurance mechanisms

health and financial strain evidence from the survey of consumer finances using data from the survey of consumer finances this study examines the relationship between health status and financial strain controlling for the dual endogeneity between the two factors simultaneous two stage probit models are estimated for self reported health status and three measures of financial strain the results from all three models indicate that poor health significantly increases the probability of financial strain there is little evidence that financial strain contributes to poor health the findings suggest that severe health conditions may result in larger financial burdens while large financial burdens are unlikely to accelerate a decline in health status in the end health may be contributing to widening financial disparities especially among the poor who are in poor health

rigidities through flexibility flexible labour and the rise of management bureaucracies judging from organisation level survey data we find that organisations employing high shares of flexible workers have higher shares of managers in their personnel this is in line with earlier findings that anglo saxon countries with deregulated labour markets have thicker management bureaucracies than countries with more regulated labour markets of the rhineland style we argue that flexibility in labour markets i e easier firing and higher labour turnover damages trust loyalty and commitment this requires more management and control related research suggests that easy hire and fire is at the cost of organisational learning knowledge accumulation and knowledge sharing thus damaging innovation and labour productivity growth

the in house contracting paradox flexibility control and tension summary this study argues that the coordination of workplace changes brought about by increased flexibility attained through the utilization of contract labor is fraught with tension which influences the ways in which employment relationships are shaped in the context of any given firm the essence of such tension lies in the pursuit of organizational flexibility and quality control in the production process contradictions arise out of the attempt of user firms to avoid direct responsibility for the workforce while at the same time exerting managerial control over externalized contract workers such tensions and paradoxes are associated with conflicts of interest and compromise between and within workplace actors

non separable time preferences novelty consumption and body weight theory and evidence from the east german transition to capitalism abstract this paper develops a dynamic model to illustrate how diet and body weight change when novel food products become available to consumers we propose a microfounded test to empirically discriminate between habit and taste formation in intertemporal preferences moreover we show that novelty consumption and endogenous preferences can explain the persistent correlation between economic development and obesity by empirically studying the german reunification we find that east germans consumed more novel western food and gained more weight than west germans when a larger variety of food products became readily accessible after the fall of the wall the observed consumption patterns suggest that food consumption features habit formation

economic stressors and the demand for fattening foods a broad and growing literature suggests that uncertainty with respect to income employment and or the financial resources necessary to buy food may cause people to gain weight the theory inspired by theory and evidence from behavioral ecology posits that economic insecurity triggers a physiological fattening response but the mechanisms by which weight gain occurs e g physical activity caloric intake dietary quality basal metabolism depression are not known this paper reviews and synthesizes evidence supporting a dietary quality mechanism in which economic insecurity triggers a shift in food preferences toward fattening foods interestingly the foods to which individuals appear to be drawn under these circumstances are those which the anthropological evidence suggests would have been eaten in pre industrial societies during periods of seasonal food scarcity this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

is flexible labour good for innovation evidence from firm level data whether the use of flexible workers is damaging to innovation or not depends on the dominant innovation regime in a sector in sectors with a routinised innovation regime high shares of low paid temporary workers have a negative impact on the probability that firms invest in r d in sectors that tend towards a garage business regime however flexibility has no impact the two innovation regimes differ in the nature of their knowledge base reliance on generally available knowledge or dependence on a firm s historically accumulated knowledge base innovation in the latter regime benefits from longer job durations our results are consistent with findings in macro level studies that coordinated market economies with rigid labour markets have higher labour productivity gains than liberalised market economies

forecasting the real prices of crude oil using forecast combinations over time varying parameter models abstract in this paper we forecast real prices of crude oil using real time forecast combinations over time varying parameter tvp models with single predictor we reveal the significant predictability at all horizons up to 24 months the mean squared predictive error reduction over the benchmark of no change forecast is as high as 17 and the directional accuracy as high as 0 645 a combination with tvp models is found to generate more accurate forecasts than the same combination with constant coefficient models because the forecast errors of individual tvp models are correlated at a lower degree we also evaluate the forecasting performance in the framework of density forecasting our results indicate that the benchmark model can be significantly outperformed by forecast combination at the horizons longer than 3 months

when labour market rigidities are useful for innovation evidence from german iab firm level data abstract supply side economists made numerous pleas for removing labour market rigidities through structural reforms from a schumpeterian viewpoint however one can argue that labour market rigidities create useful incentives for innovation our estimates on german panel data 2007 2015 support the schumpeterian view using the taxonomy of industries by peneder 2010 we find that evidence of the schumpeterian view is particularly strong in r d intensive manufacturing industries as well as in service industries with high degrees of cumulativeness of knowledge evidence of the schumpeterian view is weaker in low technology industries and in start ups when firms rely more on generally available knowledge rather than on firm specific and tacit knowledge accumulated in the past

is environmental innovation embedded within high performance organisational changes the role of human resource management and complementarity in green business strategies abstract this paper investigates whether firms joint implementation of organisational innovation and training may foster their adoption of environmental innovation ei and if this correlation falls within porter hypothesis ph framework we study the relationship of complementarity between strategies of high performance work practices hpwp and human resource management hrm when ei adoption is the firms objective using an original dataset on 555 italian industrial firms regarding ei hpwp and hrm coherent with the last cis2006 2008 survey results show that sector specificity matter the only case in which strict complementarity is observed in organisational change concerns co 2 abatement a relatively complex type of ei but this is true only when the sample is restricted to more polluting and regulated sectors this evidence is coherent with the porter hypothesis complementarity related adoption of ei is an element of organisational change in firms that are subject to more stringent environmental regulations nevertheless the fact that strict complementarity is not a diffuse factor behind the adoption of all environmental innovation indeed does not come as a surprise at this stage in the development of green strategies the share of eco firms is still limited even in advanced countries that are seeking tools for a new competitiveness the full integration of eis within the internal capabilities and firm s own assets is far from being reached even in advanced and competitive industrial settings

calories obesity and health in oecd countries theoretical models suggest that decisions about diet weight and health status are endogenous within a utility maximization framework in this article we model these behavioural relationships in a fixed effect panel setting using a simultaneous equation system with a view to determining whether economic variables can explain the trends in calorie consumption obesity and health in organization for economic cooperation and development oecd countries and the large differences among the countries the empirical model shows that progress in medical treatment and health expenditure mitigates mortality from diet related diseases despite rising obesity rates while the model accounts for endogeneity and serial correlation results are affected by data limitations