structural decomposition analysis of sources of decarbonizing economic development in china 1992 2006 abstract to analyze and understand decarbonizing economic development in china this paper undertakes a structural decomposition analysis of the historical change in energy related carbon intensity in china between 1992 and 2006 the results show that the energy related carbon intensity in china decreased by about three fourths between 1992 and 2006 and reduced carbon emissions by about two billion tons the decline in the energy related carbon intensity was mainly caused by changes in production pattern especially changes in energy intensity within each sector between 1992 and 2002 however the most important driving force of carbon intensity from 2002 2006 was not the energy intensity within each sector but the input mix on the other hand changes in demand pattern pushed up the carbon intensity to further decarbonize the economy in the future it is important for china to further enforce policies on shaping the production pattern such as reducing energy intensity and pay more attention to increasing the sustainability of the demand pattern at the same time

public capital and long run costs in u k manufacturing a model of u k manufacturing production that incorporates the inputs of public as well as private capital is specified and estimated the model is then used to measure the contribution of public capital to productivity growth over the period 1966 to 1990 it is found that before 1980 the public and private capital contributions were of comparable magnitude after 1980 the contribution of public capital declined significantly copyright 1993 by royal economic society

market clearing with stochastic security part i formulation the first of this two paper series formulates a stochastic security constrained multi period electricity market clearing problem with unit commitment the stochastic security criterion accounts for a pre selected set of random generator and line outages with known historical failure rates and involuntary load shedding as optimization variables unlike the classical deterministic reserve constrained unit commitment here the reserve services are determined by economically penalizing the operation of the market by the expected load not served the proposed formulation is a stochastic programming problem that optimizes concurrently with the pre contingency social welfare the expected operating costs associated with the deployment of the reserves following the contingencies this stochastic programming formulation is solved in the second companion paper using mixed integer linear programming methods two cases are presented a small transmission constrained three bus network scheduled over a horizon of four hours and the ieee reliability test system scheduled over 24 h the impact on the resulting generation and reserve schedules of transmission constraints and generation ramp limits of demand side reserve of the value of load not served and of the constitution of the pre selected set of contingencies are assessed

examining the global environmental impact of regional consumption activities part 2 review of input output models for the assessment of environmental impacts embodied in trade this paper offers a detailed review of recently described single and multi region input output models used to assess environmental impacts of internationally traded goods and services it is the second part of a two part contribution in part 1 turner k lenzen m wiedmann t and barrett j in press examining the global environmental impact of regional consumption activities part 1 a technical note on combining input output and ecological footprint analysis ecological economics we describe how to enumerate the resource and pollution content of inter regional and inter national trade flows with the aim to illustrate an ideal accounting and modelling framework for the estimation of ecological footprints a large number of such environment economic models have been described but only in the last few years models have emerged that use a more sophisticated multi region multi sector input output framework this has been made possible through improvements in data availability and quality as well as computability we identify six major models that employ multi sector multi region input output analysis in order to calculate environmental impacts embodied in international trade results from the reviewed studies demonstrate that it is important to explicitly consider the production recipe land and energy use as well as emissions in a multi region multi sector and multi directional trade model with global coverage and detailed sector disaggregation only then reliable figures for indicators of impacts embodied in trade such as the ecological footprint can be derived

genco s risk constrained hydrothermal scheduling this paper presents a stochastic midterm risk constrained hydrothermal scheduling algorithm in a generation company genco the objective of a genco is to maximize payoffs and minimize financial risks when scheduling its midterm generation of thermal cascaded hydro and pumped storage units the proposed schedule will be used by the genco for bidding purposes to the iso the optimization model is based on stochastic price based unit commitment the proposed genco solution may be used to schedule midterm fuel and natural water inflow resources for a few months to a year the proposed stochastic mixed integer programming solution considers random market prices for energy and ancillary services as well as the availability of natural water inflows and generators in monte carlo scenarios financial risks associated with uncertainties are considered by applying expected downside risks which are incorporated explicitly as constraints variable time steps are adopted to avoid the exponential growth in solution time and memory requirements when considering midterm constraints a single water to power conversion function is used instead of several curves for representing water head and discharge parameters piecewise linearized head dependant water to power conversion functions are used for computational efficiency illustrative examples examine gencos midterm generation schedules risk levels fuel and water usage and hourly generation dispatches for bidding in energy and ancillary services markets the paper shows that gencos could decrease their financial risks by adjusting expected payoffs

on the economic interpretation and measurement of optimal capacity utilization with anticipatory expectations this study builds on recent research giving the notion of capacity utilization clearer economic foundations in this research optimal output ye is defined as the minimum point on the firm s short run average total cost curve and capacity utilization is then computed as cu y y where y is actual output here i extend these concepts to include adjustment costs due to changes in the stock of capital and nonstatic expectations of future output demand and input prices the more general notion of cu is shown to depend on the shadow values of the firm s quasi fixed inputs and is decomposed to isolate the effects of anticipatory expectations an empirical comparison is then made between traditional indices and alternative economic cu measures using annual u s manufacturing data 1954 1980 the calculated indices exhibit plausible patterns which can be interpreted as the effects of nonstatic expectations and adjustment costs

from production based to consumption based national emission inventories abstract under the united national framework convention of climate change unfccc countries are required to submit national emission inventories nei to benchmark reductions in greenhouse gas ghg emissions depending on the definition and system boundary of the nei the mitigation options and priorities may vary the territorial system boundary used by the unfccc has been critiqued for not including international transportation and potentially causing carbon leakage to address these issues past literature has argued in favour of using consumption based nei in climate policy this article discusses several issues in moving from the standard production based nei to consumption based nei first two distinct accounting approaches for constructing consumption based nei are presented the approaches differ in the allocation of intermediate consumption of imported products second a consistent method of weighting production based and consumption based nei is discussed this is an extension of the previous literature on shared responsibility to nei third due to increased uncertainty and a wide system boundary it may be difficult to implement consumption based nei directly into climate policy several alternative options for incorporating consumption based inventories into climate policy are discussed

market clearing with stochastic security part ii case studies this paper analyzes the market clearing formulation with stochastic security developed in its companion paper through two case studies solved using mixed integer linear programming techniques the generation and reserve schedules as well as the nodal prices of energy and security are assessed under various conditions such as a line flow limits b when nonspinning reserve is excluded from the formulation c demand side valuation of energy not served d generator ramping limits and e the set of pre selected contingencies

footprints in the cotton fields the industrial revolution as time space appropriation and environmental load displacement this paper offers a method for quantifying the global exchange of natural space and labor time underlying the economic success of the british textile industry in the late 18th and early 19th century using historical statistics on inputs of land and labor embodied in cotton and wool production respectively estimates are made of the amount of british land and labor that were saved by displacing fibre production to north america by comparing inputs of land and labor in the textile exports of england with those in some commodities imported from its colonial periphery and juxtaposing these data with exchange rates estimates are also made of unequal exchange using such methods it is possible to bring together the marxist concern with unequal exchanges of labor time on one hand with the more recent concern with ecological footprints on the other

capacity utilization measures underlying economic theory and an alternative approach measures of industrial capacity utilization hereafter cu have been used extensively in helping to explain changes in the rate of investment labor productivity and inflation the cu measures have also been used to obtain indices of capital in use as distinct from capital stock in place a number of alternative measures of cu are periodically calculated and published the 1980 economic report of the president for example contains three series that by the federal reserve board the u s department of commerce bureau of economic analysis and the wharton school of finance other publicly available series are those prepared by mcgraw hill publishing company the u s department of commerce bureau of the census and rinfret boston associates inc although a host of cu measures is publicly available it is not at all clear how one should interpret changes over time in each measure or variations among them a principal reason underlying these interpretation problems is that the crucial link between underlying economic theory and the constructed measure of cu is weak one way in which this issue has manifested itself in the policy domain over the last five years has been with respect to the uncertain effects of dramatic increases in energy prices on capacity output and on cu each of the cu measures noted above is computed in such a way that explicitly ignores any role for energy prices yet several times during the last decade though growth to apparently high rates of cu had taken place investment and average labor productivity were much lower than expected and the rate of price increase much greater in brief during the last decade the explanatory power of alternative cu measures has dropped sharply some have conjectured that post opec energy price increases may have brought about major changes in the u s economy so that old quantitative relationships between measured cu and investment labor productivity and price inflation may have been altered substantially in order to assess effects of changes in pe on cu a re examination of the notion and measurement of cu is needed based on the framework of the economic theory of the firm that is the focus of this paper

risk constrained self scheduling of hydro wind units for short term electricity markets considering intermittency and uncertainty abstract in view of the intermittency and uncertainty associated with both the electricity production sector of restructured power system and their competitive markets it is necessary to develop an appropriate risk managing scheme so that it is desirable to trade off between optimum utilization of intermittent generation resources i e renewable energy resources uncertain market prices and related risks in order to maximize participants benefits and minimize the corresponding risks in the multi product market environment the main goal of this paper is to investigate risk management by introducing a novel multi risk index to quantify expected downside risk edr which is caused by both the wind power and market price uncertainties value at risk var method is used to assess the mentioned risk issue by the proposed weighted edr so that an optimal trade off between the profit and risk is made for the system operations also the roulette wheel mechanism is employed for random market price scenario generation wherein the stochastic procedure is converted into its respective deterministic equivalents moreover the autoregressive integrated moving average arima model is employed to characterize the stochastic wind farm wf generation by predetermined mean level and standard deviation of wind behavior as well as temporal correlation the problem is formulated as a mixed integer stochastic framework for a hydro wind power system scheduling and tested on a generation company genco

global effects of national biomass production and consumption austria s embodied hanpp related to agricultural biomass in the year 2000 global trade of biomass related products is growing exponentially resulting in increasing teleconnections between producing and consuming regions sustainable management of the earth s lands requires indicators to monitor these connections across regions and scales the embodied human appropriation of npp ehanpp allows one to consistently attribute the hanpp resulting from production chains to consumers hanpp is the sum of land use induced npp changes and biomass harvest we present the first national level assessment of embodied hanpp related to agriculture based on a calculation using bilateral trade matrices the dataset allows 1 the tracing of the biomass based products consumed in austria in the year 2000 to their countries of origin and quantifying the hanpp caused in production and 2 the assigning of the national level hanpp on austria s territory to the consumers of the products on the national level the dataset is constructed along a consistent system boundary between society and ecosystems and can be used to assess austria s physical trade balance in terms of ehanpp austria s ehanpp trade balance is slightly negative imports are larger than exports import and export flows are large in relation to national hanpp our findings show how the ehanpp approach can be used for quantifying and mapping the teleconnections related to a nation s biomass metabolism

a review of recent multi region input output models used for consumption based emission and resource accounting abstract the interest in consumption based emission and resource accounting has grown significantly many studies juxtapose consumer emissions carbon footprint and producer territorial emissions of greenhouse gases in order to demonstrate the effects of trade on the national emission budget to this end a respectable number of studies have been undertaken worldwide in order to estimate emissions embedded in international trade of numerous countries and world regions input output approaches and increasingly multi region input output mrio models are commonly chosen as they provide an appropriate methodological framework for complete carbon footprint estimates at the national and supra national level with increasing processing capabilities of computers and a wider availability of economic accounts environmental accounts and trade data such models are now being implemented on a wide scale after a brief overview of salient single region input output studies i provide an in depth review of the most recent multi region input output models used for the purpose of consumption based environmental accounting the main methodological features and important results are described for around twenty studies covering the years 2007 to 2009 this is followed by a detailed review of studies dealing with uncertainty in mrio analysis an area which has not received a lot of attention so far i conclude that further research is mainly needed in two areas a improvements in data availability and quality and b improvements in the accuracy of mrio modelling

integrating sustainable chain management with triple bottom line accounting abstract triple bottom line accounting is widely advanced as a way in which firms can realise broader societal objectives in addition to increasing shareholder value in our analysis of the australian economy we integrate financial input output tables that describe the interdependencies between economic sectors with national social and environmental accounts to construct numerate triple bottom line accounts for 135 discrete sectors the accounts are portrayed against the numeraire of one dollar of gdp thus for a sector of the economy financial aspects of performance can be expressed for example as dollars of export earnings per dollar of gdp social aspects such as employment can be portrayed as minutes of employment generated per dollar greenhouse issues can be portrayed as kilograms of carbon dioxide emitted per dollar since these indicators of triple bottom line performance are referenced against financial units and are consistent with the system of national accounts they can be applied to financial accounts of a firm a service or a product and allow a robust triple bottom line account to be developed across a range of scales the critical advantage of this approach is that it includes both the direct or immediate effects as well as the indirect or diffuse effects associated with a large and distant chain of supply paths the incorporation of most indirect or upstream effects therefore expands the range of issues and effects within the analytical boundary and also includes imports and exports both products and firms can then be assessed properly in sustainable chain management scm terms thus a firm that uses a key intermediate input that requires a large amount of water for example cannot hide the environmental implications since they are revealed in the analysis of the full production chain this revelation can also underpin progress when firms acknowledge both the direct and indirect effects and improve their selection of key inputs on a wider range of criteria rather than on price alone our analysis is well developed at the economic sector level for australia and is also being applied to number of government institutions firms and individual products before the full benefits of numerate triple bottom line accounting can be applied to the equity issues of globalisation trade interdependencies between groups of typical countries will have to be analysed using these whole economy approaches this will allow country specific intensities to be applied to important items in the international production chain

environmental footprints of agriculture embodied in international trade sensitivity of harvested area footprint of chinese exports abstract consumption based accounting seeks to link a population s lifestyles to their environmental impact input output analysis ioa serves well in this approach as it covers all traded products their full supply chains and explicitly delineates final consumption however using ioa comes at the expense of precision due to aggregation error there has been a recent discussion on the plausibility of ioa results of agricultural pressures we look at the harvested area footprint of chinese exports open the black box of the results of ioa and provide a detailed composition of the footprint this helps to understand whether its size is a result of the poor precision of ioa methods or whether it is based on plausible production patterns of the exported products we hybridize the exiobase database identify the most important exported products apply structural path analysis in order to identify the most important production nodes in their production paths and apply a sensitivity analysis over the model we show that the results of the hybrid mrio method are generally robust to assumptions our results indicate that while the uncertainty of the sign of net trade footprint can be high the uncertainty of national environmental footprint accounts is low

constructing physical input output tables for environmental modeling and accounting framework and illustrations abstract a physical input output table piot provides a framework in which all the physical flows associated with an economy can be recorded this makes it a valuable tool for environmental economic modeling and accounting during the 1990 s piots were constructed for a number of countries subsequently the piot and related physical supply and use tables have been taken up in the system of environmental and economic accounting un united nations 2003 system of environmental and economic accounting united nations new york this paper reviews piots for the netherlands germany denmark italy finland and the european union these studies applied the basic and extended piot frameworks this paper elaborates these frameworks with packaging residuals wastes and emissions recycling and stock changes in order to create a full piot the production process of the extended and full piot is split into structural and auxiliary production processes modeling applications and ways of deriving environmentally relevant information from the full piot are illustrated using a numerical example

integrated risk management for an electricity producer abstract electricity suppliers face two sources of risk uncertainty of spot prices and uncertainty of production costs uncertainty in selling the output is usually solved by signing forwards and the two sources of risk are dealt with separately however managing the integrated risk optimally is the direction we will suggest we intend to analyse the problem a power producer is confronted to upon acting in a market where spot and forward agreements are available since forwards allow to sell production in advance at a given price but do not hedge against cost volatility the total risk can be reduced by selling also in the spot market the analysis is further detailed to encompass the spread option inherent in electricity production we find a benchmark value for forwards to sign and the optimal spot forward combinations the analysis is carried out by accounting for market figures for input and output variables in the german market eex

coal use for world economy provision and transfer network by multi region input output analysis concerns surrounding climate change and environmental challenge make the coal utilization network essential not only for understanding the pattern of energy provision and transfer but also for illustrating the interaction between anthropogenic activities and ecological systems at global level this paper fills the research gap by dint of multi regional input output model to outline coal embodied routes from natural boundaries to economic activities and to identify the central hubs in the global coal supply chain based on the most recent available statistics for 2011 as the economic value and environmental influences of different kinds of coals could be remarkably diverse the separation of coal categories in systematic analysis could provide fundamental information regarding the displacement and teleconnection of coal utilization in the world the estimation shows that in weight 64 99 of coal direct supply is ultimately embodied in international trade indicating the crucial roles of trade interlinks in global coal utilization apart from this the findings pertinent to sectoral structure regional supply chain and per capita characteristics of coal embodied utilization could be valuable to identify the global energy routes driven by international trade as well as to facilitate energy and environmental policy

structural shifts in the manufacturing export performance of oecd economies summary this paper identifies structural shifts in manufacturing export performance of the major oecd economies the particular emphasis of this study is to see whether the longer run responses of a country s exports to the growth in world demand have undergone trend changes the econometric work focuses on the time variation in income elasticities from an export demand model over the period 1963 89 it thus covers a period in which there was a substantial slow down in world economic growth and in which the manufacturing sectors in advanced economies underwent substantial restructuring in the wake of the two oil price shocks and the competitive challenges of japan and the nics the exercise attempted to evaluate the relative successes and failures of the different oecd economies to maintain or improve their positions in the higher quality income elastic segments of world trade evidence was found for trend improvements in the income elasticity for uk exports from the early 1980s onwards and a trend decline for that of the us over the same period the effects of non tariff protection against japanese exports also showed up in our results and an attempt was made to separately identify its effects

towards more accurate and policy relevant footprint analyses tracing fine scale socio environmental impacts of production to consumption the consumption of internationally traded goods causes multiple socio environmental impacts current methods linking production impacts to final consumption typically trace the origin of products back to the country level lacking fine scale spatial resolution this hampers accurate calculation of trade and consumption footprints masking and distorting the causal links between consumers choices and their environmental impacts especially in countries with large spatial variability in socio environmental conditions and production impacts here we present the sei pcs model spatially explicit information on production to consumption systems which allows for fine scale sub national assessments of the origin of and socio environmental impacts embedded in traded commodities the method connects detailed production data at sub national scales e g municipalities or provinces information on domestic flows of goods and in international trade the model permits the downscaling of country to country trade analyses based on either physical allocation from bilateral trade matrices or mrio models the importance of producing more spatially explicit trade analyses is illustrated by identifying the municipalities of brazil from which different countries source the brazilian soy they consume applications for improving consumption accounting and policy assessment are discussed including quantification of externalities of consumption consumer labeling trade leakages sustainable resource supply and traceability

financial risk reduction in photovoltaic projects through ocean atmospheric oscillations modeling abstract the impact of climate change on society has increased the interest to deploy renewable energies and to understand climate climate variability is partly predictable and is a fundamental factor in explaining financial risk in renewable energy projects current methodologies used for risk assessment do not appropriately account for climate predictability we found limited literature on risk reduction on pv projects through the modeling of predictable components of solar radiation and ocean atmospheric oscillations allowing us to present original proposals to fill these voids a new profit model for pv plants was developed capturing this predictable climate information the proposed methodology is potentially applicable to hydro wind and other renewable resources and allows leaving aside predictable climate components from the project s risk calculation the model was tailored for the risk assessment of pv investments and is applied over 10 geographical areas across chile the largest pv market in latin america where climate is strongly affected by 3 ocean atmospheric oscillations el nino southern oscillation southern annular mode and indian ocean dipole using the model in these regions allows reducing the monthly financial the risk to reduce by 60 81 compared to traditional methodology for a 100 mw pv project located in those areas this means reducing annualized risk from 4 93 to 7 88 mm usd year traditional model to 1 11 2 38 mm usd year proposed model modeling of ocean atmospheric oscillations allows achieving the greatest risk reduction between the cities of copiapo and coquimbo north central regions decreasing their influence towards the extreme latitudes their risk reduction will depend on the quality of the model and may have strong implications for both investors and financial institutions it could also impact competition in the energy sector due to possible asymmetries of information to facilitate extending the use of the model elsewhere the incorporation of subsidies is discussed

stochastic security constrained unit commitment this paper presents a stochastic model for the long term solution of security constrained unit commitment scuc the proposed approach could be used by vertically integrated utilities as well as the isos in electricity markets in this model random disturbances such as outages of generation units and transmission lines as well as load forecasting inaccuracies are modeled as scenario trees using the monte carlo simulation method for dual optimization coupling constraints among scenarios are relaxed and the optimization problem is decomposed into deterministic long term scuc subproblems for each deterministic long term scuc resource constraints represent fuel and emission constraints in the case of vertically integrated utilities and energy constraints in the case of electricity markets lagrangian relaxation is used to decompose subproblems with long term scuc into tractable short term mip based scuc subproblems without resource constraints accordingly penalty prices lagrangian multipliers are signals to coordinate the master problem and small scale subproblems computational requirements for solving scenario based optimization models depend on the number of scenarios in which the objective is to minimize the weighted average generation cost over the entire scenario tree in large scale applications the scenario reduction method is introduced for enhancing a tradeoff between calculation speed and accuracy of long term scuc solution numerical simulations indicate the effectiveness of the proposed approach for solving the stochastic security constrained unit commitment

physical and monetary input output analysis what makes the difference abstract a recent paper in which embodied land appropriation of exports was calculated using a physical input output model ecological economics 44 2003 137 151 initiated a discussion in this journal concerning the conceptual differences between input output models using a coefficient matrix based on physical input output tables piots in a single unit of mass and input output models using a coefficient matrix based on monetary input output tables miots extended by a coefficient vector of physical factor inputs per unit of output in this contribution we argue that the conceptual core of the discrepancies found when comparing outcomes obtained using physical vs monetary input output models lies in the assumptions regarding unit prices and not in the treatment of waste as has been claimed ecological economics 48 2004 9 17 we first show that a basic static input output model with the coefficient matrix derived from a monetary input output table is equivalent to one where the coefficient matrix is derived from an input output table in physical units provided that the assumption of unique sectoral prices is satisfied we then illustrate that the input output tables that were used in the original publication do not satisfy the assumption of homogenous sectoral prices even after the inconsistent treatment of waste in the piot is corrected we show that substantially different results from the physical and the monetary models in fact remain finally we identify and discuss possible reasons for the observed differences in sectoral prices faced by different purchasing sectors and draw conclusions for the future development of applied physical input output analysis

energy landscape in mauritius abstract located in the indian ocean mauritius is among the small island developing states sids entirely reliant on coal petroleum and some locally available renewable energy sources to satisfy energy needs 22 7 of the electricity is generated by biomass solar landfill gas and hydro and the remaining by fossil fuels even with continual oil price volatilities and specific economic social and environmental vulnerabilities compared to continental areas mauritius has successfully provided 100 electricity to all its residents however with a growth in population and economy mauritius faces a crucial challenge to supply more electrical power to all requiring sectors renewable energy appears to be the most effective solution to cater for the increase in electricity demand but there are still huge challenges to overcome for massive deployment of more renewable energy in this context this paper reviews the current electricity industry and fuel sources for electricity production in mauritius it also describes future energy policies for more renewable energy integration within the energy mix by 2025

measuring structural change and energy use decomposition of the us economy from 1997 to 2002 abstract the steadily increasing focus on energy production and consumption has led to growing research attention to patterns of energy use within economies of particular interest has been comparing the driving forces of increasing efficiency and economic structural change input output analysis ioa and decomposition analysis have become critical tools for performing such analyses this study analyzes aggregate energy use in the united states in 1997 and 2002 to discover the causes of changing energy usage and flows results show that rising population and household consumption acted to drive up energy demand but this driving force was offset by considerable structural change within the economy particularly related to a quickly increasing trade deficit in manufacturing goods thus while total energy intensity the ratio of energy use to economic output declined by approximately 12 between 1997 and 2002 changes in the structure of the economy explain this drop more than increased energy efficiency the level of aggregation at which decomposition analyses are run was identified as a crucially sensitive parameter for the determination of structural change and future studies should specifically address the amount of detail necessary to adequately measure changes in economic structure

the multivariate flexible accelerator model its empirical restrictions and an application to u s manufacturing this paper derives an exhaustive set of restrictions implied by the multistock flexible accelerator specification of the adjustment cost model for the firm the flexible accelerator specification of the demand for capital and labor is estimated using u s manufacturing annual data for the 1947 1976 period the consistency of the data with the model is examined by testing the validity of the derived restrictions finally the conditions which permit aggregation over firms are determined and tested empirically the flexible accelerator specification has been popular in the empirical literature on interrelated investment and employment decisions see nadiri and rosen 38 coen and hickman 10 and schramm 40 more recent examples include sargent 39 berndt fuss and wavermann 4 berndt and morrison 6 and meese 34 under suitable assumptions the specification may be rationalized by the adjustment cost model of the firm eisner and strotz 13 lucas 30 mortensen 35 extends the work of lucas and derives some empirically testable restrictions of the accelerator specification that are implied by the adjustment cost framework the broad objective of this paper is to provide a more rigorous and comprehensive test of the adjustment cost model than is presently found in the literature this objective is achieved in three stages first we offer an alternative derivation of the mortensen restrictions and more importantly we prove theorem 1 that his restrictions are exhaustive i e we establish an integrability result for the flexible accelerator adjustment cost model second the flexible accelerator specification of the demand for capital and labor is estimated using total u s manufacturing annual data for the 1947 76 period it is assumed that firms minimize expected production costs subject to a technology which implies that capital and labor stocks are costly to adjust while a third factor materials is freely adjustable the consistency of the data with the adjustmentcost framework is examined by testing for the validity of the derived restrictions further we test the validity of some separability restrictions on the adjustmentcost technology that to varying degrees are imposed a priori in all of the cited empirical studies finally we provide a complete characterization of the individual firm technologies which justify the common assumption of the existence of a representative firm this problem of aggregation over firms which has been

the relationship between waste paper and other inputs in the swedish paper industry a number of life cycle assessment studies havecompared the environmental impacts of materialrecycling and incineration of waste paper theyhave shown that in most cases a recyclingscenario results in lower total energy use butgreater use of fossil fuels if waste paper andfossil fuels are complements parts of theenvironmental argument for recycling isabolished this paper estimates a cost functionfor the swedish paper industry if the costshares are co integrated an error correctionmodel will be used to model the dynamics short and long run elasticities are thencalculated to address the relationship betweenwaste paper and the other inputs capital labor purchased pulp fiber fossil fuels andelectricity contrary to the life cycleassessment studies the results show that wastepaper and fossil fuels are substitutes andthat waste paper and electricity arecomplements

recent advances in electricity price forecasting a review of probabilistic forecasting abstract since the inception of competitive power markets two decades ago electricity price forecasting epf has gradually become a fundamental process for energy companies decision making mechanisms over the years the bulk of research has concerned point predictions however the recent introduction of smart grids and renewable integration requirements has had the effect of increasing the uncertainty of future supply demand and prices academics and practitioners alike have come to understand that probabilistic electricity price and load forecasting is now more important for energy systems planning and operations than ever before with this paper we offer a tutorial review of probabilistic epf and present much needed guidelines for the rigorous use of methods measures and tests in line with the paradigm of maximizing sharpness subject to reliability the paper can be treated as an update and a further extension of the otherwise comprehensive epf review of weron 1 or as a standalone treatment of a fascinating and underdeveloped topic that has a much broader reach than epf itself

risk constrained profit maximization in day ahead electricity market the deregulation of the electricity industry has caused for the generation company genco the need of tools for measuring and managing the risk beyond the classical problem of generating unit scheduling in this paper a probabilistic framework for the problem of managing risk faced by gencos trading in day ahead energy market is proposed in particular a stochastic forecast of electricity price and the technical features of hydrothermal units are considered the approach is based on an optimization procedure for maximizing expected profits in the presence of risk constraints conditional value at risk for the distribution of daily profit is used as risk measure

dynamic factor demands and the effects of energy price shocks a dynamic model is used to understand how sharp changes in energy prices affect investment behavior employment and energy use the authors discuss the theory behind their model selection model specifications estimation methods and data list parameter estimates and elasticities for the selected model and describe the simulations they conclude that 1 the data strongly reject the hypothesis of constant returns to scale within their specification of aggregate production 2 the data indicate adjustment costs on labor are small and 3 their results help reconcile some of the conflicting estimates of energy demand elasticities appearing in recent literature 23 references 3 figures 3 tables

examining the global environmental impact of regional consumption activities part 1 a technical note on combining input output and ecological footprint analysis in recent years there have been a number of attempts to develop a more comprehensive approach to the issue of measuring resource use and or pollution generation embodied in trade flows including contributions that combine input output techniques and ecological footprint analysis in this two part paper we describe how to enumerate the resource and or pollution content of inter regional and inter national trade flows part 1 and we present a literature review of recent methodological and empirical developments part 2 it is straightforward in principle to extend the basic input output approach to capture international trade flows however in practice problems of data availability and compatibility and of computability of extended input output matrices mean that simplifying assumptions are generally applied but with the implications of these assumptions often not made fully explicit what appears to be absent from previous applications is an account of the analytical method by which ecological footprints should ideally be estimated in an international input output accounting analysis this allows an explicit analysis of the problems that prevent the application of the full method and identification of the most appropriate short cut methods in a transparent way the objective of this paper is to provide such an account

financial risk evaluation in stochastic pbuc this letter is an extension of our previous price based unit commitment pbuc work this letter identifies a frontier relationship between payoff and risk this letter also discusses the calculation of target value and risk using payoff risk frontiers test results show a trade off between risk minimization and payoff maximization for power generation utilities

testing restrictions in a flexible dynamic demand system an application to consumers expenditure in canada traditionally restrictions on systems of demand equations have been tested using static models whilst being estimated with time series data this paper develops a vector time series model of expenditure shares in the context of a singular dynamic demand system the model allows for non symmetric and non homogeneous short run behaviour the homogeneity and symmetry restrictions are only examined in the long run structure results based on canadian time series data are presented and reject the current practise of static modelling while restrictions suggested by economic theory are not rejected when imposed on the long run structure

tracing distant environmental impacts of agricultural products from a consumer perspective globally trade flows of agricultural products are increasing while value is typically added along the whole production chain certain environmental impacts such as land and water use biomass appropriation and soil degradation are intrinsically linked to where the primary products originate from when taking a consumer oriented approach on environmental problems bilateral trade statistics can help in providing a clearer picture about the location of impacts caused by consumption elsewhere however in today s increasingly globalized world consumer goods are often imported from countries other than where the primary product originated from for instance soybeans are transported from brazil to the netherlands where they are processed into soy oil which is shipped to austria where it is consumed utilizing bilateral trade matrices and matrix algebra we present a method that allows to clearly link consumption patterns to the origin of primary products in this the method can help to provide information about consumption related distant environmental impacts we employ the case of land and water use linked to austria s soy product consumption to demonstrate the approach s relevance finally we outline some possible applications of this method to show its potential in enhancing understanding for informed consumer based environmental decision making

cropland area embodied in international trade contradictory results from different approaches with rapidly increasing trade volumes resource use and environmental pressures related to traded products are high on research and policy agendas robust accounts of biophysical resources used in the production processes of traded goods are required to support sustainable consumption and to expose problem shifting related to environmental policies in this context multi region input output analysis mrio is becoming a widely applied tool to establish consumption based accounts and to analyse production consumption links along complex international supply chains using the example of china s trade in cropland products and embodied cropland we make the case for a re evaluation of its application to land and other resources while analyses based on physical trade matrices show that china is a major net importer of cropland products and embodied cropland mrio based results suggest exactly the opposite we do not find convincing arguments that could explain these large differences based on our knowledge of land systems and biomass metabolism and on the results from physical accounting we question the plausibility of mrio derived results we conclude by outlining next steps in research that are required to improve assessments of trade related resource use in order to produce more robust results a prerequisite for the formulation of policy recommendations

quo vadis mrio methodological data and institutional requirements for multi region input output analysis abstract in order to understand wider sustainability impacts of consumption and to successfully promote and implement sustainable consumption and production policies there is a need to capture the whole life cycle impact of products and services across international supply chains multi region input output mrio databases are a well described and suitable foundation for global sustainability analyses addressing a wide range of policy and research questions in this paper we reflect on the reasons for the recent boom in mrio compilation summarise the current state of development and discuss future options for mrio analysis we list in detail the requirements for efficient and effective mrio research and propose systemic and institutional changes we deliberately try to go beyond existing ambitions for mrio compilation and thus intend to stimulate discussion and to lay out the options for the future of mrio research

tele connecting urban food consumption to land use at multiple spatial scales a case study of beef in taiwan abstract this study takes the first step to tele connect urban food consumption to land use at multiple spatial scales by taking beef consumption of taiwan during 1990 2016 as a test case the novelty of this study is to make a quantitative effort in advancing the methodological approach in urban studies and facilitates future research in the subject area our numerical results support the hypothesis of ult associated with beef consumption and suggest that the phenomena of beef related land teleconnection are more significant in urban areas from the time dynamic perspective moreover trade liberalization extends the spatial spectrum of implied land use associated with beef consumption it allows imports towards relative land saving origins and alleviates beef related ult finally income growth plays a key role in driving up the implied land use of beef consumption at earlier stage of urban development in contrast at the later stage the increase in expenditure intensity of beef accounts for surging beef consumption in cities

modeling approaches for computational cost reduction in stochastic unit commitment formulations although stochastic commitment policies provide robust and efficient solutions they have high computational costs this letter considers two modeling approaches for the reduction of their computational effort the relaxation of the integrality constraint of fast start units and the modeling of generation outages as load increments these approaches are shown to reduce the computational cost while maintaining the good properties of stochastic policies

stochastic multiobjective market clearing of joint energy and reserves auctions ensuring power system security in this paper a stochastic multiobjective framework is proposed for day ahead joint market clearing the proposed multiobjective framework can concurrently optimize competing objective functions including augmented generation offer cost and security indices overload index voltage drop index and voltage stability margin besides system uncertainties including generating units and branches contingencies and load uncertainty are explicitly considered in the stochastic market clearing scheme the solution methodology consists of two stages which firstly employs roulette wheel mechanism and monte carlo simulation mcs for random adaptive 24 h scenario generation wherein the stochastic multiobjective market clearing procedure is converted into its respective deterministic equivalents scenarios in the second stage for each deterministic scenario a multiobjective mathematical programming mmp formulation based on the epsiv constrained approach is implemented for provision of spinning reserve sr and nonspinning reserve nsr as well as energy the mmp formulation of the market clearing process is optimized while meeting ac power flow constraints and expected interruption cost eic the ieee 24 bus reliability test system rts 24 bus is used to demonstrate the performance of the proposed method

interrelated factor demands for manufacturing a dynamic translog cost function approach abstract in this paper we report the results of estimating a joint model for labour capital and energy using the transcendental logarithmic cost function of christensen jorgenson and lau 1973 this allows us to determine both the own price and cross elasticities of substitution between labour capital and energy we combine a model of factor shares with a dynamic adjustment process for each factor we also impose on the cross equation restrictions necessary to provide additivity homogeneity and symmetry since the covariance matrix in systems of share relationships is singular we follow the suggestions of anderson and blundell 1982 and employ a mullivariate error corrrection model the results suggest that additivity symmetry and homogeneity restrictions do hold and that there are short run increasing returns to scale

an investigation of the determinants of manufacturing employment in the united kingdom in this paper we present and estimate an adjustment cost model of industry employment which takes explicit account of both expectations and aggregation over different labour types the resulting model is subject to a large number of tests and is a highly robust representation of the data finally forecasts are produced for manufacturing employment up to 1990

how do banks adjust to changing input prices a dynamic analysis of u s commercial banks before and after the crisis abstract the 2000 2013 period was characterized by substantial regulatory monetary and technological change especially after the onset of the global financial crisis this study assesses the total impact of these policy shifts and technological changes on u s commercial banks short run and long run substitution elasticities an endogenous break test divides the sample into a pre crisis period and a post crisis period during the former period banks inputs tend to be inelastic substitutes after the onset of the crisis particularly the long run substitutability of most input factors decreases to even lower levels due to changes in both cost technology and economic conditions at the same time banks response to input price changes becomes more sluggish hence especially after the onset of the crisis banks have little flexibility regarding input factor usage and are thus sensitive to input price changes from a cost perspective

dynamic energy demand models a comparison abstract this paper compares two second generation dynamic energy demand models a translog tl and a general leontief gl in the study of price elasticities and factor substitutions of nine swedish manufacturing industries food textiles wood paper printing chemicals non metallic minerals base metals and machinery several model specifications are tested with likelihood ratio test there is a disagreement on short run adjustments the tl model accepts putty putty production technology of immediate adjustments implying equal short and long run price elasticities of factors while the gl model rejects immediate adjustments giving out short run elasticities quite different from the long run the two models also disagree in substitutability in many cases

a review of the wind power developments in pakistan abstract pakistan is among the 10 countries that face the worst energy crisis of the world as the country struggles with a number of financial political and social issues the transition from a conventional fuels based economy to a green economy is not an easy one pakistan has been blessed with immense potential of clean renewable sources of solar wind and biomass but they have not been exploited yet renewable energy technology sector has not penetrated the energy mix and is currently an emerging market this paper highlights the steps the country has taken in the past and the steps that are being taken at present to emerge out of the prevailing energy crisis when even the most urban areas suffer from power outages of 12 h per day until 2009 no single grid interconnected wind farm existed but now the situation has changed considerably and wind farms contributing to the national grid are a reality now three grid interconnected farms have been inaugurated and many others are in pipeline the national policy regarding wind power systems has recently changed after unexpected setbacks to ongoing projects this paper reviews the developments in the wind power sector of the country and lists some suggestions that can help improve the wind power penetration in the national energy mix

the future of asean energy mix a swot analysis this paper assesses competing outlooks for energy mix in the association of southeast asian nations asean highlighting the paradox of its fossil fuel dominated outlooks when contrasted with its aspirations to move toward a green energy mix and reviews green energy strategies using the strengths weaknesses opportunities and threats swot analysis method the paper argues that despite the looming brown outlooks due to the expected surge of coal the asean region has many advantages in providing cleaner energy for its green vision however reduction of co2 emissions has not been explicitly set in the region s policy agenda and thus green energy potential is underdeveloped to achieve a greener energy mix asean needs to make further efforts such as cleaner use and removal of subsidies of fossil fuels promotion of renewables and energy efficiency regional market integration and connectivity and execution of existing plans by nations ultimately each of these strategies will require sustained leadership political determination and concrete actions from stakeholders in particular national governments across the region