financial markets and growth the last five years have witnessed a resurgence of interest in the relationship between financial intermediation and economic growth this issue had been extensively studied nearly two decades earlier by goldsmith 1969 mckinnon 1973 shaw 1973 and others who produced considerable evidence that financial development correlates with growth but their work though insightful lacked analytical foundations in traditional growth theory financial intermediation could be related to the level of the capital stock per worker or to the level of productivity but not to their respective growth rates the latter were ascribed to exogenous technical progress the recent revival of interest in the link between financial development and growth stems mainly from the insights and techniques of endogenous growth models which have shown that there can be self sustaining growth without exogenous technical progress and that the growth rate can be related to preferences technology income distribution and institutional arrangements this provides the theoretical underpinning that early contributors lacked tinancial intermediation can be shown to have not only level effects but also growth effects the resulting models have offered important insights into the effect of financial development on growth and vice versa they have also provided new impetus to empirical research on these issues this paper reviews the ground covered so far on the theoretical and empirical front and points to some still unresolved issues

radicalism versus gradualism an analytical survey of the transition strategy debate academic debate on a transition strategy for former socialist economies continues even a quarter century after the collapse of the communism in central and eastern europe and the former soviet union in this paper through an analytical survey of 137 preceding studies we present an overall picture of the debate and examine the relationship between the debate attitudes and the literature attributes in related studies we found that the radicalists maintain a consistent debate attitude from the viewpoints of time speed and policy sequence of economic transition while the debate attitude of the gradualists is more diversified we also found that there is another group of researchers that stays within the framework of the radicalism versus gradualism debate while at the same time keeping at arm s length from both the radicalists and the gradualists in addition our regression estimation of qualitative selection models provides interesting findings on the relationship between the debate attitudes and the literature attributes

the winner s curse problem interest costs and the underpricing of initial public offerings this paper provides the first direct test of the winner s curse problem proposed by k rock 1986 as an explanation to the underpricing of initial public offerings moreover it tests the proposition that the underpricing of initial public offerings in the united kingdom is due to the combined effect of the winner s curse problem and the particular nature of the settlement mechanism applicable in the british new issues market the evidence demonstrates that when these two factors winner s curse problems and interest rate costs are taken into consideration the emerging first day net returns are on average markedly lower than the level of actual underpricing consistently superior performance can only be achieved by predicting the market s response to the individual new issue the results however indicate that such predictive ability is largely unattainable copyright 1990 by royal economic society

privatisation around the world evidence from panel data this paper presents new evidence about privatisation processes and their determinants from a panel of 34 countries over the 1977 99 period the empirical analysis shows that privatisation takes place typically in wealthy and democratic countries endowed with deep and liquid stock markets and is affected by the governing political majority and public sector budget constraints but the extent of privatisation in terms of revenues and stakes sold appears more limited in civil law countries where shareholders are poorly protected banks powerful and capital markets less developed

subsidy and networking the effects of direct and indirect support programs of the cluster policy abstract industrial clusters have attracted considerable attention worldwide for their expected contribution to regional innovation recently policymakers in various countries have developed specific cluster policies however there exist few empirical studies on cluster policies focusing on the industrial cluster project icp in japan initiated by the ministry of economy trade and industry in 2001 we address two research questions on the support programs of the cluster policies if the project participants who exploit various support programs are more successful in network formation within the cluster than others and which kind of support program contributes to firm performance we pay special attention to the differences between direct rd firms should therefore select the program that is most aligned with their aims indirect support programs have an extensive and strong impact on output whereas direct r d support has only a weak effect

territorial innovation models a critical survey moulaert f and sekia f 2003 territorial innovation models a critical survey reg studies 37 289 302 this paper provides a critical review of the literature on territorial innovation models industrial districts milieux innovateurs new industrial spaces local production systems etc the review is organized in two stages first the main features of each of these models and their view of innovation are compared second their theoretical building blocks are reconstructed and evaluated from the point of view of conceptual clarity and analytical coherence it is found that despite some semantic unity among the concepts used economies of agglomeration endogenous development systems of innovation evolution and learning network organization and governance territorial innovation models tims suffer from conceptual ambiguity the latter is mainly a consequence of the way territorial innovation is theorized i e in terms of technologically driven innovation and a business culture that is ma

endogenous growth and the emergence of equity finance abstract this paper characterises the development of equity markets as a dynamic process that both influences and is influenced by the development of the real sector of the economy in overlapping generations economy borrowers seek funds to run risky investment projects by drawing up contracts which may take the form of either equity or debt issue in the presence of information asymmetry between borrowers and lenders the optimal contract is determined by trading off information dilution costs against bankruptcy costs significantly the equilibrium choice of contract depends on the state of the economy which in turn depends on the contracting regime based on this analysis the paper provides a theory of the joint determination of real and financial development with the ability to explain the emergence of a stock market along the path of real development

option pricing and foreign investment under political risk abstract the paper analyses asset prices in a context of uncertainty over future government policy as current policy is maintained perceived risk abates thus leading to a gradual appreciation of asset prices and a gradual decrease in their conditional variance option values computed under this process have time series and the term structure of conditional volatility which in general are downward sloping in price series without a policy reversal implied volatility from option prices will exceed actual volatility with this wedge progressively disappearing this may be viewed as the volatility analogue of the peso premium for assets subject to large infrequent price drops

privatization and globalization an empirical analysis abstract this paper examines the link between globalization measured by foreign direct investment fdi and foreign portfolio investment fpi and privatization of state owned enterprises in a multi country sample that focuses on developing countries we hypothesize that privatization has an effect on fdi fpi as the process of fostering private sector participation is often accompanied by liberalization reforms and by allocations of substantial shares of newly privatized firms to foreign investors similarly we expect fdi fpi to foster privatization efforts as new capital inflows technology and managerial skills that accompany fdi fpi make the environment more prone to competition providing governments with incentives to privatize inefficient firms that need to be turned around this relation is assessed in two ways first in a dynamic panel using a generalized method of moments approach and second through panel causality tests we find a bi directional positive relation between privatization proceeds and globalization particularly in the case of fdi

two stage residual inclusion estimation addressing endogeneity in health econometric modeling the paper focuses on two estimation methods that have been widely used to address endogeneity in empirical research in health economics and health services research two stage predictor substitution 2sps and two stage residual inclusion 2sri 2sps is the rote extension to nonlinear models of the popular linear two stage least squares estimator the 2sri estimator is similar except that in the second stage regression the endogenous variables are not replaced by first stage predictors instead first stage residuals are included as additional regressors in a generic parametric framework we show that 2sri is consistent and 2sps is not results from a simulation study and an illustrative example also recommend against 2sps and favor 2sri our findings are important given that there are many prominent examples of the application of inconsistent 2sps in the recent literature this study can be used as a guide by future researchers in health economics who are confronted with endogeneity in their empirical work

electoral information in developed stock market testing conditional heteroscedasticity in the market model this investigates the influence of major electoral information on abnormal returns around the announcement date in the developed stock market and examines whether these explanatory variables are associated with observed cumulative abnormal returns using a regression analysis the analytical results demonstrate that average abnormal returns are significantly negative before the date of the announcement of the results of a general election on days 6 and 3 and after that announcement date on days 4 6 and 10 this phenomenon can be attributed to hedging activity of the investors to reduce risk

democracy political risks and stock market performance this study examines the impacts of democracy and political risk on stock market using annualized panel data for 49 emerging markets for 2000 2012 we find evidence that democracy and political risk do have impact on stock market returns and the relationship between democracy and political risk is parabolic i e there is a threshold level of democracy after which political risk begins to decline also our results suggest that decreases in political risk lead to higher returns

measuring country event risk compensation on brics international portfolio management the brics nations brazil russia india and china have a strong relative economic growth pattern in the world among economic powers the allure of globalization has made the analysis and assessment of national critical component of international portfolio management in recent years we construct the model from comparing the relative sd of stock return whereby higher sds are generally associated with more risk this relative sd forms a principle component in the change of the weights on the international portfolio choice the result shows that event jump risk not only makes the investor s allocation more conservative overall but also it can be compensated on brics event risk

patterns of transition from plan to market patterns of transition from plan to market martha de melo cevdet denizer and alan gelb hungary s bankruptcy experience 1992 1993 cheryl w gray sabine schlorke and miklos szanyi why and when do governments initiate public enterprise reform jose edgardo campos and hadi salehi esfahani roads land use and deforestation a spatial model applied to belize kenneth m chomitz and david a gray industrial centralization in indonesia j vernon henderson and ari kuncoro guidlines on searching for a dalton improving tax reform an illustration with data from indonesia shlomo yitzhaki and jeffrey d lewis a new data set measuring income inequality klaus deininger and lyn squire

confidence building and politics in privatization some evidence from spain abstract this paper analyzes privatization on the stock market and has two main findings first sips underpricing is consistent with the confidence building hypothesis derived from political risk under asymmetric information larger initial returns occurred in the early stages of privatization which is consistent with the hypothesis that governments use underpricing to be credible privatizators second evidence gives support to the hypothesis that explicit political motives influence the design of privatization which is affected by the political majority

stretching the concept of borrowed size borrowed size is an emerging policy concept in several european countries presenting theoretical potential to explain contemporary urban dynamics unaddressed through conventional urban growth theories that emphasise the role of agglomeration economies in its original conceptualisation by alonso the concept describes and explains the situation that especially smaller cities that are located in a larger megapolitan complex do perform better because they have access to agglomeration benefits of larger neighbouring cities this paper scrutinises the concept of borrowed size thereby focusing on its conceptualisation and reviewing its empirical justification thus far our empirical analyses show that the concept must be stretched in terms of scale and scope to enhance its policy value borrowed size occurs when a city possesses urban functions and or performance levels normally associated with larger cities this is enabled through interactions in networks of cities across multiple spatial scales these networks serve as a substitute for the benefits of agglomeration theoretically the borrowed size concept demands a recasting of the geographical foundations of agglomeration theory

what drives international financial flows politics institutions and other determinants abstract this paper uses a large panel of financial flow data from banks to assess how institutions affect international lending first employing a time varying composite institutional quality index in a fixed effects framework the paper shows that institutional improvements are followed by significant increases in international finance second cross sectional models also show a strong effect of initial levels of institutional quality on future bank lending third instrumental variable estimates further show that the historically predetermined component of institutional development is also a significant correlate of international bank inflows the results thus suggest that institutional underdeveloped can explain a significant part of lucas lucas robert e 1990 why doesn t capital flow from rich to poor countries american economic review papers and proceedings 80 2 92 96 1990 paradox of why doesn t capital flow from rich to poor countries the analysis also does a first step towards understanding which institutional features affect international banking

circumstance and choice the role of initial conditions and policies in transition economies the experience of countries in transition from a planned to a market oriented economy has varied greatly the clearest differences are between the east asian countries china and vietnam and the countries of central and eastern europe cee and the former soviet union fsu china and vietnam have contained inflation and benefited from continued high growth in gdp since the beginning of their reforms while all cee and fsu countries have experienced large declines in output and most have experienced hyperinflation but even in cee and the fsu differences are marked some countries have lost over half of their gdp and growth performance in a number of countries is still poor while others are growing strongly some are still suffering from high inflation while others have successfully reduced annual inflation what determines this divergence of outcomes across transition countries no study so far has analyzed the interaction of all factors including initial conditions political change and reforms in a unified framework including cee the fsu china and vietnam the authors examine these broader interactions but focus first on the role of initial conditions such as initial macroeconomic distortions and differences in economic structure and institutions which have been emphasized less in the literature they find that initial conditions and economic policy jointly determine the large differences in economic performance among the 28 transition economies in the sample initial conditions dominate in explaining inflation but economic liberalization is the most important factor determining differences in growth but reform policy choices are not exogenous they depend in turn on both initial conditions and political reform with political reform the most important determinant of the speed and comprehensiveness of economic liberalization other findings provide additional insight into these relationships results show that liberalization has a negative contemporaneous impact but a stronger positive effect on performance over time the results also show that macroeconomic and structural distortions are negatively related to both policy and performance regarding the former unfavorable initial conditions discourage policy reforms but do not diminish their effectiveness once they are implemented the authors find some evidence that the influence of initial conditions diminishes over time this is in part because many of the initial conditions are themselves modified in the course of transition monetary overhangs are dissipated through inflation industrial overhang is eroded as plants shut down and market memory returns through experience

agglomeration economies interregional commuting and innovation in the peripheries regional development and innovation are often studied in the context of agglomeration economies leading to a perception bias regarding the virtues of cities recent work on interregional connectiv

export performance in transition economies trade performance export reorientation in the transition we examine export performance in the transition economies of europe and central asia we conclude that early success in exporting required the simultaneous pursuit of stabilization and liberalization neither liberalizing the foreign trade regime alone nor drastic devaluations of domestic currencies will improve trade performance unless domestic prices are decontrolled inflationary expectations lowered and administrative controls over the economy relaxed within the foreign trade regime removing export controls appears a more immediate priority than relaxing import controls export controls induce undervaluation and high levels of protection that insulate domestic producers and consumers from international markets bartlomiej kaminski zhen kun wang and l alan winters

the impact of party alternative on the stock market the case of japan this paper tries to clarify whether change in political regime has an effect on the behaviour of the stock market in japan the empirical study finds that the transition of ruling party effect is not a crucial variable to the nikkei 225 the alienation felt by the japanese about the political environment resulting in a succession of prime ministers does not influence the nikkei 225 stock market behaviour therefore former prime ministers who have resigned have become scapegoats for the poor performance of financial and economic policies

share issue privatizations as financial means to political and economic ends abstract this study examines how political and economic factors affect the offer price share allocation and other terms governments choose when they privatize state owned enterprises via a public share offering using a 59 country sample of 630 share issue privatizations sips with total proceeds of over 446 billion during the period 1977 1997 we find that governments consistently underprice sip offers tilt their share allocation patterns to favour domestic investors impose control restrictions on privatized firms and typically use fixed price offers rather than book building or competitive tender offers all to further political and economic policy objectives

political risk in emerging and developed markets using analyst estimates of political risk we show that political risk represents a more important determinant of stock returns in emerging than developed markets average returns in emerging markets experiencing decreased political risk exceed those of emerging markets experiencing increased political risk by approximately 11 per quarter in contrast the difference is only 2 5 per quarter for developed markets further the difference between the impact of political risk in emerging and developed markets is statistically significant we also document a global convergence in political risk over the last 10 years political risk has decreased in emerging markets and increased in developed markets if this trend continues the differential impact of political risk in emerging vs developed markets may narrow

signalling and the pricing of new issues this paper develops a signalling model with two signals two attributes and a continuum of signal levels and attribute types to explain new issue underpricing both the fraction of the new issue retained by the issuer and its offering price convey to investors the unobservable intrinsic value of the firm and the variance of its cash flows many of the model s comparative statics results are novel empirically testable and consistent with the existing empirical evidence on new issues in particular the degree of underpricing which can be inferred from observable variables is positively related to the firm s post issue share price

privatization financial development property rights and growth abstract this study analyzes how prevailing institutional arrangements i e property rights contracting rights political institutions and corporate governance practices affect privatized firms performance capital markets development and economic growth most of the studies surveyed show that privatization enhances privatized firms performance efficiency and profitability which percolates to economic growth privatized firms performed better in countries with better regulatory and legal frameworks partial privatization may be beneficial in countries with weak institutions namely the french civil law countries the stronger the economic and the governing institutions the easier it is for privatized firms to thrive and contribute to economic growth overall privatization allows firms to achieve improved efficiency while driving the development of the financial sector

endogenous market thinness and stock price volatility thin equity markets cannot accommodate temporary bulges of buy or sell orders without large price movements the resulting volatility can induce risk averse transactors who face transaction costs to desert these markets thus thinness and the related price volatility may become joint self perpetuating features of an equity market irrespective of the volatility of asset fundamentals if however appropriate incentive schemes are adopted to encourage entry by additional investors this vicious circle can be broken eventually shifting the market to a selfsustaining superior equilibrium characterized by a higher number of transactors lower price volatility and larger supply of the asset a number of empirical studies cohen et al 1976 telser and higimbotham 1977 pagano 1986 tauchen and pitts 1983 have found that thin speculative markets are ceteris paribus more volatile than deep ones a plausible explanation for this finding is that thin markets are generally characterized by small numbers of transactors per unit time and thus their prices are more sensitive to the impact of individual traders demand shocks conversely in deep markets transactors are so many that the uncorrelated demand shocks experienced by individual traders tend to offset each other and leave market prices largely unaffected while this suggests a rationale for the observed relationship between market size and price volatility it does so by taking market size as the exogenous factor however the volatility of a speculative market may feed back on its size in the sense that the high liquidation risk implied by very volatile prices can induce potential entrants to keep out of the market this paper shows that in a stock market with transaction costs this interaction between thinness and volatility can produce multiple steady state equilibria some characterized by low trade and high volatility and others by high trade and low volatility whether the market will settle in one equilibrium or another depends entirely on the expectations held by economic agents sections 2 and 3 the existence of these multiple bootstrap equilibria can be explained heuristically as follows each additional trader generates a positive externality for other actual or potential traders by decreasing the riskiness of the stock lower risk in turn tends to attract more investors with the effect of raising stock prices and inducing corporations to issue additional equity we thus have a feedback loop between market size and price volatility where market size is measured both along the dimension of the number of traders and along that of the total stock of equities if however investors face transactions costs in the stock market this positive feedback may fail to be operative if the volume of trade is expected to be small investors with relatively high transaction costs will abstain from trading thus the market

stabilization and growth in transition economies the early experience this paper analyzes the growth and stabilization experience in 26 transition economies in eastern europe the former soviet union and mongolia for the period 1989 1994 inflation rates have declined significantly in most countries following an inflation stabilization program growth resumes after stabilization occurs typically with a lag of about two years reducing inflation thus appears to be a precondition for growth an econometric analysis of the short run determinants of inflation and growth illustrates the key roles of fixed exchange rates improved fiscal balances and structural reforms in spurring growth and lowering inflation and confirms that inflation stabilization programs have been beneficial for growth even after controlling for structural reforms

inertial credit and opportunistic arrears in transition in a transition economy enterprise restructuring may exhibit a laffer curve response to tighter credit as a result of rational collective inertia in the presence of a rigid production structure unenforceable contracts and high adjustment costs a contraction in credit finance subtracts more liquidity than enterprises can generate internally because unrestructured firms are forced to extend trade credit to illiquid buyers an increase in their number increases the availability of forced supplier credit in turn increasing the attractiveness of inertial behavior as trade credit cannot be enforced a critical mass of trade and wage arrears causes pressure for a collective bailout thus validating inertial behavior even by reformable firms

emerging stock markets portfolio capital flows and long term economie growth micro and macroeconomic perspectives abstract the paper examines two major components of financial liberalization stock market development and portfolio capital flows in the context of less developed countries the paper considers microeconomic and macroeconomic perspectives on their implications for long term development and economic growth it concentrates on 1 a the role of stock markets in financing corporate growth 2 b the implications of stock market volatility for resource allocation and productive efficiency and 3 c the interactions between the foreign exchange and stock markets in the context of economic shocks its policy recommendations are that ldcs should promote bank based systems influence the scale and composition of capital inflows and prevent a market for corporate control from emerging

public support for economic reforms in poland using monthly surveys the author examines the impact of aggregate economic conditions on the dynamic of support for the polish program of economic reforms the balcerowicz plan to highlight the ambiguity of the standard retrospective model the author analyzes the impact of subjective perceptions of economic conditions on postures toward the reform program asking if people were extrapolating the past when forming predictions about the future then the effect of these predictions on the postures toward reform is studied finally the author focuses on the distributional effects substantive conclusions concerning the impact of economic conditions on the support of economic reform programs under democracy close the article

confidence building on euro convergence evidence from currency options we study the evolution of investor confidence in 1992 1998 over the chance of individual currencies to converge to the euro using data on currency option prices convergence risk which may reflect uncertainty over policy commitment as well as exogenous fundamentals induces a level of implied volatility in excess of actual volatility this volatility wedge should gradually decrease as confidence grows over time as convergence policy is maintained and the risk of a reversal is progressively resolved empirically we indeed find a positive volatility wedge which declines over time only for currencies involved in the euro convergence process the wedge and other convergence risk measures are correlated with both exogenous fundamentals and proxies for policy commitment uncertainty we also find that the wedge responds to policy shocks in an asymmetric fashion suggesting that policy risk is resolved at different rates after negative and positive shocks finally we estimate a regime switching model of convergence uncertainty using data on interest rates currency rates and currency option prices the results confirm the time varying and asymmetric nature of convergence risk and indicate that investors demand a risk premium for convergence risk

financial liberalisation stockmarkets and economic development abstract during the 1980s and 1990s many developing countries dcs have been engaged in far reaching reforms of their financial systems liberalising them and making them more market oriented this liberalisation involving inter alia financial de repression has been inspired partly by the work of the mckinnon 1973 and shaw 1973 m s school this paper suggests that in addition to financial de repression there has been a major new element in the development of dc financial systems in recent years the establishment and fast expansion of stockmarkets these markets have played a key role in the internal as well as external financial liberalisation processes in leading dcs further the paper finds that the actual behaviour of these markets in many countries has led to outcomes which undermine the effects of the higher real interest rates arising from financial de repression

pyramidal groups and debt abstract this paper suggests that debt should be raised by subsidiaries in order to exploit the limited liability of the holding company however when this behavior increases the cost of funds the holding might prefer to raise debt to a point where it would also default when subsidiaries are insolvent after accounting for standard controls we find that holding companies in italian pyramids have higher leverage than subsidiaries and that the cash flow share of the entrepreneur in the subsidiary does not play a significant role these findings are consistent with the implications of our model of group capital structure

privatization political risk and stock market development in emerging economies this paper investigates whether privatization in emerging economies has a significant indirect effect on local stock market development through the resolution of political risk we argue that a sustained privatization program represents a major political test that gradually resolves uncertainty over political commitment to a market oriented policy as well as to regulatory and private property rights we present evidence suggesting that progress in privatization is indeed correlated with improvements in perceived political risk our analysis further shows that changes in political risk in general tend to have a strong effect on local stock market development and excess returns in emerging economies we conclude that the resolution of political risk resulting from successful privatization has been an important source for the rapid growth of stock markets in emerging economies

financial development and economic growth abstract this paper examines the empirical relationship between long run growth and financial development proxied by the ratio between bank credit to the private sector and gdp we find that this proxy is positively correlated with growth in a large cross country sample but its impact changes across countries and is negative in a panel data for latin america we argue that the latter findings is the result of financial liberalization in a poor regulatory environment our findings also show that the main channel of transmission from financial development to growth is the efficiency rather than the volume of investment

law finance and firm growth we investigate how differences in legal and financial systems affect firms use of external financing to fund growth we show that in countries whose legal systems score high on an efficiency index a greater proportion of firms use long term external financing an active though not necessarily large stock market and a large banking sector are also associated with externally financed firm growth the increased reliance on external financing occurs in part because established firms in countries with well functioning institutions have lower profit rates government subsidies to industry do not increase the proportion of firms relying on external financing the corporate finance literature suggests that market imperfections caused by conflicts of interest and informational asymmetries between corporate insiders and investors constrain firms in their ability to fund investment projects the magnitude of these imperfections depends in part on the effectiveness of the legal and financial systems because these systems differ across countries the literature implies that there should exist systematic cross country differences in firms ability to obtain external capital to finance investment in this paper we examine whether the underdevelopment of legal and financial systems does prevent firms in some countries from investing in potentially profitable growth opportunities in particular we focus on the use of long term debt or external equity to fund growth see our earlier work demirgut kunt and maksimovic 1996a which compares firms financial structures in developed and developing countries and finds the greatest difference to be in the provision of long term credit we estimate a financial planning model to obtain the maximum growth rate that each firm in our thirty country sample could attain without access to long term financing we then compare these predicted growth rates to growth rates realized by firms in countries with differing degrees of development in their legal and financial systems our approach enables us to identify specific characteristics of the legal and financial systems that are associated with long term financing of firm growth thus we provide a micro level test of the hypoth

technology policy for a world of skew distributed outcomes abstract this paper draws implications for technology policy from evidence on the size distribution of returns from eight sets of data on inventions and innovations attributable to private sector firms and universities the distributions are all highly skew the top 10 of sample members captured from 48 to 93 percent of total sample returns it follows that programs seeking to advance technology should not be judged negatively if they lead to numerous economic failures rather emphasis should be placed on the relatively few big successes to achieve noteworthy success with appreciable confidence a sizeable array of projects must often be supported the outcome distributions are sufficiently skewed that even with large numbers of projects it is not possible to diversify away substantial residual variability through portfolio strategies

working through knowledge pools labour market dynamics the transference of knowledge and ideas and industrial clusters this article explores a prominent cluster in the swedish capital stockholm and its surrounding region the ict information and communications technology cluster in particular the article focuses on the issue of the extent to which labour market and labour mobility are the most likely channels for local and extra local sources of knowledge and ideas thus the article positions itself against a growing literature that focuses on rather diffuse and vague notions that knowledge and innovation reside in the air or in the buzz of urban life instead the underlying hypothesis is that in many sectors and industries such things as a cosmopolitan street life or accidental face to face encounters play relatively little part in the flow of experiences knowledge and innovation rather it is in the workplace that these exchanges and flows are located and it is thus through labour mobility that intracluster exchanges occur the article tests such ideas in relation to the ict cluster and the stockholm region using a uniquely detailed time series data set the data set used is based on official taxation and civil registration records and contains complete details on everything from education to career changes to income levels for every individual resident in sweden the detail of the individual records and the complete nature of the data set mean that it offers a unique possibility to examine on a large scale the micro dynamics of individuals in the labour market and in clusters the data are used to examine whether there have existed over time higher levels of labour market mobility in clusters as opposed to the rest of the urban economy the article empirically verifies the idea that labour market mobility is significantly higher in the cluster than in the rest of the urban economy

diversification and competition financial intermediation in a large cournot walras economy abstract an economy with partially diversified imperfectly competitive cournot intermediaries is replicated the cournot walras equilibrium converges to the perfectly competitive equilibrium with no uncertainty despite the convergence the tension between diversification and competition persists when the economy becomes large and is manifested in the rates of convergence of price quantities and per capita welfare to their respective limits to maximize the rate of convergence of per capita welfare resources must be allocated in a particular way that balances the gains from better diversified intermediaries and the gains from more competition in the intermediation sector journal of economic literature classification numbers d43 d61 d89 g10 g21 l10 l16 o16

transition to the market economy poland 1989 93 in comparative perspective poland the economic outcomes leszek balcerowicz the principal architect of poland s radical reform strategy in 1990 analyses here its economic outcomes prior to reform the characteristics which distinguished the polish economy from other socialist economies in central europe were the critical nature of the hyperinflation and accompanying macroeconomic crisis in 1989 the magnitude of the country s external debt the particularly strong socio political position of the labour movement in general and of the employees of state enterprises in particular a level of dependence of the ussr which though dramatic was less than that of its neighbours less economic centralization and a greater degree of private ownership in agriculture than elsewhere the last two factors were favorable but the first three most particularly the heavy legacy of hyperinflation were economically unfavorable on balance poland entered reform with a substantial disadvantage nonetheless its macroeconomic performance in the four years which followed reform was relatively better than that of its neighbours the crown jewel of poland s success was the halt of hyperinflation this was not achieved at a relatively greater cost in output cumulative gdp decline was less than elsewhere though after adjustment for the effects of the cmea shock the differences are not large balcerowicz attributes poland s relative success to the salient characteristics of its reform programme it was rapid radical comprehensive and consistent romania for one followed the opposite course of stop go gradualism that country s accelerating inflation and deep decline in output suggests what might have happened to poland had it followed a softer approach

the national system of innovation in historical perspective contrary to some recent work on so called globalisation this paper argues that national and regional systems of innovation remain an essential domain of economic analysis their importance derives from the networks of relationships which are necessary for any firm to innovate whilst external international connections are certainly of growing importance the influence of the national education system industrial relations technical and scientific institutions government policies cul tural traditions and many other national institutions is fundamental the historical examples of germany japan and the former ussr illustrate this point as well as the more recent contrast between east asian and latin american countries introduction the national system of friedrich list according to this author s recollections the first person to use the expression national system of innovation was bengt ake lundvall and he is also the editor of a highly original and thought provoking book 1992 on this subject however as he and his colleagues would be the first to agree and as lundvall himself points out the idea actually goes back at least to friedrich list s conception of the national system of political economy 1841 which might just as well have been called the national system of innovation the main concern of list was with the problem of germany overtaking england and for underdeveloped countries as germany then was in relation to england he advocated not only protection of infant industries but a broad range of policies designed to accelerate or to make possible industrialisation and economic growth most of these policies were concerned with learning about new technology and applying it the racialist and colonialist overtones of the book were in strong contrast to the inter nationalist cosmopolitan approach of the classical free trade economists and list s belief that holland and denmark should join the german bund and acquire german nationality because of their descent and whole character reads somewhat strangely in the european community of today nevertheless despite these unattractive features of his outlook he clearly anticipated many contemporary theories after reviewing the changing ideas of economists about development in the years since the second world war the world bank 1991 concludes that it is intangible investment in knowledge accumulation which is decisive rather than physical capital investment as was at one time believed pages 33 35 the report cites the new growth theory

abnormal returns of uk privatizations from underpricing to outperformance this paper offers a review and discussion of the evidence concerning the underpricing and long run performance of british pipos privatization initial public offerings between 1977 and 1996 i e from the first privatization under a labour government british petroleum until the last ones by a conservative government railtrack more recent years are excluded because the change of government the introduction of a windfall tax on excess profits of regulated utilities and changes in the regulatory regime mark a totally different landscape compared with the previous twenty years evidence is found that underpricing was not followed by underperformance as is usually observed with ipos but rather strong outperformance this trend is decomposed by subgroups within a 55 observations sample and it is concluded that lax regulation was probably the main driving force of abnormal returns of british pipos

a penny for your quotes patent citations and the value of innovations the use ofpatents in economic research has been seriously hindered by the fact that patents vary enormously in their importance or value and hence simple patent counts cannot be informative about innovative output the purpose of this article is to put forward patent counts weighted by citations as indicators of the value of innovations thereby overcoming the limitations of simple counts the empirical analysis of a particular innovation computed tomography scanners indeed shows a close association between citation based patent indices and independent measures of the social value of innovations in that field moreover the weighting scheme appears to be nonlinear increasing in the number of citations implying that the informational content of citations rises at the margin as in previous studies simple patent counts are found to be highly correlated with contemporaneous rd however here the association is within afield over time rather than cross sectional

political booms financial crises political booms measured by the rise in governments popularity predict financial crises above and beyond better known early warning indicators such as credit booms this predictive power howev

on the distribution of patent citations and its fundamentals this paper analyzes features of the distribution of 3 7 mn patent family applications from patstat in 34 countries 17 industries and 11 years power law regressions suggest that higher levels of r d intensity and outward foreign direct investment in a country and sector are associated with a reduced concentration of patent citations

patents as options some estimates of the value of holding european patent stocks in many countries holders of patents must pay an annual renewal fee in order to keep their patents in force this paper uses data on the proportion of patents renewed and the renewal fees faced by post world war ii cohorts of patents in france the united kingdom and germany in conjunction with a model of patent holders renewal decisions to estimate the returns earned from holding patents in these countries since patents are often applied for at a nearly stage in the innovation process the model allows agents to be uncertain about the sequence of returns that will be earned if the patent is kept inforce formally then the paper presents and solves a discrete choice optimal stochastic control model derives the implications of the model on aggregate behaviour and then estimates the parameters of the model from aggregate data the estimates enable a detailed description of the evolution of the distribution of returns earned from holding patents over their life spans and calculations of both the annual returns earned from holding the patents still in force or the patent stocks in the alternative countries and the distribution of the discounted value of returns earned from holding the patents in a cohort this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

the war making state and privatisation states created with the central purpose of defending national independence resist the process of macro economic reform since it appears to limit their power to pursue this aim the states of the former centrally planned economies were marked out by their extreme subordination to the military drive so the resistance to reshaping the war making state into a market facilitating state is considerable the transition tends to be halted where the old structures of central control are ended without markets supplying alternative imperatives a rent seeking state is created these themes are examined in relationship to privatisation of state owned enterprises in four countries russia china vietnam and the ukraine

the flotation of companies on the stock market abstract in some countries the size of the stock market and the number of listed companies have persistently lagged behind the growth of the economy trading externalities can help explain this fact an entrepreneur who goes public increases risk sharing opportunities for others this externality can lead to an inefficiently low number of listed companies and also generate multiple equilibria when flotation decisions are positively correlated across entrepreneurs this happens if these face borrowing constraints and lack liquidity and thus cannot diversify their portfolios unless they go public it also happens if trading shares is costly so that a sufficient number of issues must be listed to lure investors into the market

macropolicies in transition to a market economy a three year perspective countries in transition to market economies have had to implement macroeconoimic stabilization programs at the same time that they were engaged in massive changes of their political institutions and the systemic framework of their economies what has been the interaction of stabilization with economic liberalization and deep institutional reform in the countries of eastern europe in particular the relations among initial conditions political developments reform strategies and outcomes experience in eastern europe suggests that when there is a political breakthrough as in the countries under review a radical stabilization liberalization stragety is probably the least risky approach to reform and will not constrain output or structural reform over the medium term even stabilization that is initially successful in containing inflation will later come under pressure because of social policies and the structural transitions impelled by reform several factors are identified that affect the credibility of reforms and lessons are derived for countries that have stabilized and those that yet face this task

public offerings of state owned and privately owned enterprises an international comparison we compare initial offer prices in privatizations to initial prices in public offerings of private companies the evidence indicates that government officials in the united kingdom underprice ipos significantly more than their private company counterparts in canada and malaysia however the opposite is true there does not appear to be a general tendency for privatizations to be underpriced to a greater degree than private company ipos we provide additional evidence on the determinants of privatization initial returns our findings indicate that initial returns are significantly higher in relatively primitive capital markets and for privatized companies in regulated industries

the financial and operating performance of newly privatized firms evidence from developing countries this paper examines the change in the financial and operating performance of 79 companies from 21 developing countries that experienced full or partial privatization during the period from 1980 to 1992 we use accounting performance measures adjusted for market effects in addition to unadjusted accounting performance measures both unadjusted and market adjusted results show significant increases in profitability operating efficiency capital investment spending output employment level and dividends we also find a decline in leverage following privatization but this change is significant only for unadjusted leverage ratios our results are generally robust when we partition our data into various subsamples

equity market liberalizations as country ipo s equity market liberalizations are like ipos but they are ipos of a country s stock market rather than of individual firms both are endogenous events whose benefits are limited by poor investor protection agency costs and information asymmetries as for stock prices following an ipo there are legitimate concerns about the efficiency in the period following the liberalization of the stock market returns of countries that liberalize their equity markets equity markets of liberalizing countries experience extremely strong performance immediately after the liberalization but then go through a period of poor performance this pattern of stock returns is more dramatic for countries with poorer financial development before the liberalization this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

the costs of going public abstract this paper presents evidence regarding the two quantifiable components of the costs of going public direct expenses and underpricing together these costs average 21 22 of the realized market value of the securities issued for firm commitment offers and 31 87 for best efforts offers for a given size offer the direct expenses are of the same order of magnitude for both contract types but the underpricing is greater for best efforts offers an explanation of why some firms choose to use best efforts offers in spite of their apparent higher total costs is given

enterprise ownership constraints and the role of equity markets in financial development the long standing controversy of the contribution of equity markets to economic development has been reactivated by the emerging markets phenomenon positive reassessments have emphasised diversification and liquidity gains for investors funding risky long lived projects the present analysis adopts instead the viewpoint of the issuer the owner controlled enterprise typical of ldcs owners wealth is a fundamental constraint on expansion when gearing is limited by bankruptcy risk and minority equity issue eases this constraint it is suggested that equity and debt are thus complementary and that stock markets may improve overall allocative efficiency if equities correctly value firm prospects

patent quality and research productivity measuring innovation with multiple indicators we analyse the determinants of the decline in research productivity using panel data on manufacturing firms in the us for the period 1980 93 we focus on three factors the level of demand the quality of patents and technological exhaustion we develop an index of patent quality using detailed patent information and show that using multiple indicators substantially reduces the measured variance in quality research productivity at the firm level is inversely related to patent quality and the level of demand as predicted by theory and patent quality is positively associated with the stock market value of firms

financial development and economic growth views and agenda this critique argues that the preponderance of theoretical reasoning and empirical evidence suggests a positive first order relationship between financial development and economic growth the body of work would push even most skeptics toward the belief that the development of financial markets and institutions is a critical and inextricable part of the growth process and away from the view that the financial system is an inconsequential sideshow responding passively to economic growth many gaps remain however and the paper highlights areas in acute need of additional research

circumstance and choice this article takes an integrated approach to evaluating the interaction of initial conditions political change reforms and economic performance in a unified framework covering 28 transition economies in east asia central and eastern europe and the fsu initial conditions and economic policy jointly determine the large differences in economic performance among transition economies initial conditions dominate in explaining inflation but economic liberalization is the most important factor determining differences in growth political reform emerges as the most important determinant of the speed and comprehensiveness of economic liberalization raising the important question of what determines political liberalization results suggest the importance of the level of development in determining the decision to expand political freedoms