deciding between competition and collusion we develop an approach to identify and test for bid rigging in procurement auctions first we introduce a general auction model with asymmetric bidders second we study the problem of identie cation in our model we state a set of conditions that are both necessary and sufe cient for a distribution of bids to be generated by a model with competitive bidding third we discuss how to elicit a prior distribution over a e rm s structural cost parameters from industry experts given this prior distri bution we use bayes s theorem to compare competitive and collusive models of industry equilibrium finally we apply our methodology to a data set of bidding by construction e rms in the midwest the techniques we propose are not computationally demanding use e exible functional forms and can be programmed using most standard statistical packages

optimal nonparametric estimation of first price auctions this paper proposes a general approach and a computationally convenient estimation procedure for the structural analysis of auctioni data considering first price sealed bid auction models within the independent private value paradigm we show that the underlying distribution of bidders private values is identified from observed bids and the number of actual bidders without any parametric assumptions using the theoiy of minimax we establish the best rate of uniform convergence at which the latent density of private values can be estimated nonparametrically from available data we then propose a two step kernel based estimator that converges at the optimal rate

the effect of collusion on efficiency in experimental auctions abstract this paper examines the effect of collusion on allocative efficiency in a second price sealed bid auction in which bidders valuations have both private and common value components we present a theoretical model which shows that explicit collusion improves average efficiency furthermore a reduction in common value signal variance increases the efficiency of allocations when a cartel is present we test for the presence of these patterns in a laboratory experiment subjects can choose whether to compete or to form a cartel colluding bidders can communicate and make side payments using a knockout auction our results show that a large majority of bidders joins a cartel and collusion has a negative impact on efficiency

procurement auctions under quality manipulation corruption abstract in procurement quality manipulation corruption arises when the agent tasked with quality evaluation exaggerates the quality of a corrupt firm if an inefficient firm is favored by the agent the buyer can adjust the procurement mechanism such that the corruption rent of the inefficient firm erodes the technological rent of the efficient firm however doing so may require procuring the project at an undesirable quality level to resolve this trade off between corruption deterrence and quality distortion unlike standard results in the literature the buyer may overstate her preference for quality and the dominance of scoring auctions over minimum quality auctions disappears

rules communication and collusion narrative evidence from the sugar institute case detailed notes on weekly meetings of the sugar refining cartel show how communication helps firms collude and so highlight the deficiencies in the current formal theory of collusion the sugar institute did not fix prices or output prices were increased by homogenizing business practices to make price cutting more transparent meetings were used to interpret and adapt the agreement coordinate on jointly profitable actions ensure unilateral actions were not misconstrued as cheating and determine whether cheating had occurred in contrast to established theories cheating did occur but sparked only limited retaliation partly due to the contractual relations with selling agents jel l13 l41 this paper reexamines the cartel problem by studying the private discussions within one cartel while we find much that is in accord with george j stigler s 1964 basic insight that firms would structure an agreement conscious of their later incentive to cheat on it we also uncover puzzles for established theory and identify elements that a richer theory should encompass especially regarding the role of communication in collusion our window into the inner workings of a cartel is a remarkable series of notes on the weekly meetings of the sugar institute this trade association was formed in december 1927 in the wake of several years of falling margins and excess capacity by 14 firms comprising nearly all the cane sugar refining capacity in the united states it operated until 1936 when the supreme court ruled its practices illegal among the top executives in regular attendance at the meetings was louis v place vice president of mccahan a midsize refinery in philadelphia place who was in charge of all activities of the company except production and raw sugar purchases wrote over 500 pages of single spaced detailed

collusion in second price auctions with heterogeneous bidders abstract we show that efficient collusion by any subset of bidders in second price private value auctions is possible even when the bidders are heterogeneous an important property of efficient collusion is that a bidder s net payoff from participating in collusion is independent of her valuation we show that the cooperative game whose characteristic function evaluated at a coalition is the ex ante collusive surplus of that coalition has a nonempty core a feature of more technical interest is the mechanism characterization when the private information of agents does not enter in a linear or even piecewise linear manner

a study of collusion in first price auctions this paper examines the bidding for school milk contracts in florida and texas during the 1980s in both states firms were convicted of bid rigging the data and legal evidence suggest that the cartels in the two states allocate contracts in different ways one cartel divides the market among members while the other cartel also uses side payments to compensate members for refraining from bidding we show that both forms of cartel agreements are almost optimal provided the number of contracts is sufficiently large in the auction the cartel bidder may face competition from non cartel bidders the presence of an optimal cartel induces an asymmetry in the auction the selected cartel bidder is bidding as a representative of a group and has on average a lower cost than a non cartel bidder the data support the predicted equilibrium bidding behaviour in asymmetric auctions in accordance with optimal cartels

cartel sustainability in retail markets evidence from a health service sector abstract this paper studies the role of cost asymmetries and product differentiation on cartel sustainability by drawing data from a failed retail cartel unlike the extensive theoretical literature little empirical evidence exists on these relationships first we analyze cartel compliance and find that players are more likely to comply when cost is symmetric and own cost is high next based on a structural model and counterfactual experiments we show that a cartel price that satisfies all cartel members does not exist this result indicates an inherent difficulty of sustaining collusion in retail markets with heterogeneous players we also show that firm heterogeneities especially product differentiation rather than cost asymmetries hinder collusion more finally we derive the level of patience or the discount factor required for cartel sustainability when firms split profits based on the shapley value

collusive bidder behavior at single object second price and english auctions models of collusive bidder behavior at single object second price and english auctions are provided the ind ependent private values model is generalized to permit the formulatio n of coalitions and a strategic response by the auctioneer cooperati ve strategies are found to be dominant in these models coalitions of any size are viable and the payoff to each member increases with th e size of the coalition in addition the collusive strategies of the coalition represent a noncooperative equilibrium the optimal respon se of the auctioneer is to establish a reserve price that is a functi on of the coalition s size these and other features of the model are found to be consistent with the essential features of actual behavio r copyright 1987 by university of chicago press

generalized quantity competition for multiple products and loss of efficiency we study a generalized model of quantity cournot oligopolistic competition the impact of competition on social surplus and firms profit is analyzed firms produce multiple differentiated products and face production constraints we compare the social surplus produced by competing firms and by colluding firms with the maximum achievable total surplus in the market similarly we quantify the loss of profit that firms incur by competing instead of colluding our goal is to understand how the presence of competition affects the firms and society as a whole but also to determine what are the key drivers of the inefficiencies that arise due to competition

aggregate comparative statics abstract in aggregative games each player s payoff depends on her own actions and an aggregate of the actions of all the players many common games in industrial organization political economy public economics and macroeconomics can be cast as aggregative games this paper provides a general and tractable framework for comparative static results in aggregative games we focus on two classes of games 1 aggregative games with strategic substitutes and 2 nice aggregative games where payoff functions are continuous and concave in own strategies we provide simple sufficient conditions under which positive shocks to individual players increase their own actions and have monotone effects on the aggregate the results are illustrated with applications to public good provision contests cournot competition and technology choices in oligopoly

differential payments within a bidder coalition and the shapley value bidder coalitions at english auctions frequently distribute collusive gains among members via a secondary auction or knockout when coalition members are sufficiently heterogeneous nested coalition structures are observed in which a knockout is conducted at each level of nesting the nested knockout s characteristics are investigated within many settings we find that the expected payments to coalition members via the nested knockout equal the shapley value incentive compatibility problems of the nested knockout are also analyzed

a study of the internal organization of a bidding cartel this paper examines bidding in over 1 700 knockout auctions used by a bidding cartel or ring of stamp dealers in the 1990s the knockout was conducted using a variant of the model studied by daniel graham robert marshall and jean francois richard 1990 following a reduced form examination of these data damages induced inefficiency and the ring s benefit from colluding are estimated using a structural model in the spirit of emmanuel guerre isabelle perrigne and quang vuong 2000 a notable finding is that nonring bidders suffered damages that were of the same order of magnitude as those of the sellers

strategic information manipulation in duopolies abstract this paper studies a duopoly market in which firms can draw inferences concerning uncertain market demand from observations of their outputs and market price firms may adjust their outputs away from myopically optimal levels to affect the informativeness of the market price because firms quantities are observed firms can manipulate the extent to which belief revision occurs rather than the direction in which beliefs are revised as in signal jamming models we develop conditions and present examples under which the value of information is positive and negative and under which firms will increase or decrease quantity to manipulate information journal of economic literature classification numbers d80 l13

comparing open and sealed bid auctions evidence from timber auctions we study entry and bidding patterns in sealed bid and open auctions using data from the u s forest service timber auctions we document a set of systematic effects sealed bid auctions attract more small bidders shift the allocation toward these bidders and can also generate higher revenue a private value auction model with endogenous participation can account for these qualitative effects of auction format we estimate the model s parameters and show that it can explain the quantitative effects as well we then use the model to assess bidder competitiveness which has important consequences for auction design

tacit collusion in repeated auctions abstract this paper considers the question of tacit collusion in repeated auctions with independent private values and with limited public monitoring mcafee and mcmillan show that the extent of collusion is tied to the availability of transfers monetary transfers allow cartels to extract full surplus a folk theorem proved by fudenberg et al econometrica 62 1994 997 1039 shows that transfers of future payoffs are almost as good if players are patient and communicate before auctions we ask how the scope of collusion is affected if players dispense with explicit communication and their monitoring is limited collusion better than bid rotation is still feasible but full surplus cannot be extracted this constraint becomes less severe with more players and large cartels can become asymptotically efficient even with very limited monitoring

market structure and organizational form this paper studies the determinants of a firm s organizational form in the context of an imperfectly competitive industry there are two kinds of organizational forms the multi divisional form m form and the unitary form u form an m form firm suffers from ignorance of demand externalities among different products and double marginalization is eliminated in contrast in a u form firm demand externalities are taken into consideration and double marginalization exists a firm s optimal choice of organizational form depends on the market structure

bidding for incomplete contracts an empirical analysis of adaptation costs abstract procurement contracts are often renegotiated because of changes that are required after their execution using highway paving contracts we show that renegotiation imposes significant adaptation costs reduced form regressions suggest that bidders respond strategically to contractual incompleteness and that adaptation costs are an important determinant of their bids a structural empirical model compares adaptation costs to bidder markups and shows that adaptation costs account for 7 5 14 percent of the winning bid markups from private information and market power the focus of much of the auctions literature are much smaller by comparison implications for government procurement are discussed jel d44 d82 d86 h57 l13 l74 r42

strategic complements and substitutes and potential games abstract we show that games of strategic complements or substitutes with aggregation are pseudo potential games the upshot is that they possess nash equilibria in pure strategies ne even if the strategy sets are not convex and that various dynamic processes converge to ne in particular ne exist in cournot oligopoly with indivisibilities in production our notion of aggregation is quite general and enables us to take a unified view of several disparate models

a curvature condition ensuring uniqueness of cournot equilibrium with applications to comparative statics abstract we study a curvature condition on demands that with a cost assumption ensures the uniqueness of cournot equilibrium for two firms the condition is that industry marginal revenue rises no faster than price falls the condition is weaker with more firms and holds for any smooth demand curve provided there are enough firms

the effect of state fiscal policy on state relative economic performance the relative performance of different state economies has been a matter of much interest to both policymakers and the public in general in a neoclassical world where factors are free to move across political boundaries one would not expect to observe the existence of persistent product price or factor income differentials such differentials would disappear either through the trading of goods or factor migration yet in seeming violation of neoclassical economic theory apparent persistent differences in factor incomes have been repeatedly observed among states or regions in the u s the intent of this paper is to develop and empirically examine a neoclassical model which explicitly incorporates both state and federal fiscal policies in order to explain persistent differences in the levels of market income of the states economies 2 in section ii a simple neoclassical model of an integrated economy is developed within this framework we show that trade in market goods and migration of the mobile factor may result in factor price equalization across states on a before tax basis our model differs from others 6 16 in that the assumption of factor price equalization does not necessarily imply equality in per capita market income across states this result may be traced to our assumption that each factor has the choice of working in either the market or household sector consequently although full incomes may be equated market incomes

on the workings of a cartel evidence from the norwegian cement industry using the institutional set up of the norwegian cement industry in particular its sharing rule we are able to identify the workings of a cartel in some detail given data on prices production and exports we are able to identify marginal costs as well as the effectiveness of the cartel we compare our marginal cost estimates which are derived from an equilibrium condition to detailed cost accounting data and find that our estimate of marginal cost is very much in line with the data we then show that the cement cartel has been ineffective in the sense that the sharing rule induces overproduction and exporting below marginal costs in this sense it is consumers not firms that benefi tf rom the sharing rule we find that the ineffectiveness of the cartel is becoming so large that domestic welfare of a merger to monopoly would in fact be positive at around 1968 which is exactly when the merger actually took place however we also show that competition would have resulted in even higher welfare gains over the entire sample

democrats republicans and taxes evidence that political parties matter i estimate the influence of political parties on state tax burdens over a forty year period 1960 2000 holding constant a large number of state and voter characteristic variables i find that i tax burdens are higher when democrats control the state legislature compared to when republicans are in control ii the political party of the governor has little effect after controlling for partisan influences in the state legislature i explain how both findings are consistent with median voter theory my results suggest that after five years of democratic control of the legislature state government would be approximately 3 to 5 percent larger than if republicans controlled the legislature during that same period with the better specifications producing estimates in the higher end of this range

strategic design under uncertain evaluations structural analysis of design build auctions i investigate firms competition over price and product design under uncertain design evaluations in the context of design build db auctions reviewers design evaluations contain uncertainty from a bidder s perspective leading luck to curtail differences in firms chances of winning i model bidders behavior and derive semiparametric identification of the model primitives uncertain evaluations worsen the expected price of design quality and exacerbate an auctioneer s uncertainty in auction outcomes a simple adjustment in the auction mechanism may completely shut down the impact of uncertain evaluations on bidding incentives restoring efficient allocations of projects

econometrics of first price auctions a survey of the theoretical and applied literature the analysis of auctions is an active area of research for both theoretical and empirical economists this paper provides an overview of the literature relevant to the econometrics of auctions from a structural approach perspective the structural approach is a framework to analyze auction data in which theory and econometrics are closely related there are three fundamental issues at the heart of the structural analysis i are there any testable restrictions imposed by the theoretic model on the data ii is it possible to identify the structural elements that characterize an auction without a priori parametric information iii what can be said about feasible estimation procedures which do not rely on parametric assumptions this survey shows how the structural approach literature has answered each question

market power in international commodity trade the case of coffee this paper studies the impact of market power on international commodity prices i use a standard oligopoly model and exploit historical variations in the structure of the international coffee bean market to assess the impact of a cartel treaty on coffee prices and its global welfare consequences the results suggest that the international coffee agreement ica 1965 89 raised its price by 75 above the cournot competitive level annually transferring approximately 12 billion from consumers to exporting countries and its lapse in 1989 explains four fifths of the subsequent price decline that is the coffee crisis

uniqueness and existence of equilibrium in auctions with a reserve price abstract we prove existence and uniqueness of equilibrium for a general class of two player bidding games we apply our results to the first price auction the combination of first and second price auctions the war of attrition the all pay auction as well as combinations of the latter two auction forms we also treat the first price auction without risk neutrality our results deal with the asymmetric affiliated common values environment in the case where signals are independent our results apply to all equilibria when signals are not independent our uniqueness results hold in the class of nondecreasing strategy equilibria journal of economic literature classification number d44

perfectly competitive markets as the limits of cournot markets a perfectly competitive partial equilibrium market for a single homogeneous good with a bounded continuum of infinitesimal firms is considered cost functions are essentially unrestricted and are allowed to vary smoothly across firms a sequence net of cournot markets each with a finite number of firms which converge smoothly to the perfectly competitive limit in terms of both the inverse demand functions and the distributioon of firm technologies is introduced and it is shown that all markets sufficiently far along the sequence have a cournot equilibrium and all the cournot equilibria converge to the perfectly competitive equilibrium of the limit market

auction cartels and the absence of efficient communication abstract this paper examines the feasibility of collusive mechanisms in single unit auctions a model is constructed with private and common value information asymmetry and continuous type space we show that an incentive compatible bid coordination mechanism bcm does not exist if common value uncertainty is present this result contradicts actual antitrust cases where common effects or resale opportunities created uncertainty about valuations but a price fixing cartel was formed we solve the puzzle by relaxing the assumption that all bidder types truthfully reveal their private information the introduced bayesian bid coordination mechanism bbcm exists if the main source of information asymmetry is private value in that case a designated ring member can signal high valuation and suppress competition our results demonstrate the rationale behind cartel mechanisms with pre auction knockouts

bid preference programs and participation in highway procurement auctions we use data from highway procurement auctions subject to california s small business preference program to study the effect of bid preferences on auction outcomes our analysis is based on an estimated model of firms bidding and participation decisions which allows us to evaluate the effects of current and alternative policy designs we show that incorporating participation responses significantly alters the assessment of preferential treatment policies

bidder collusion at forest service timber sales allegations of bidder collusion at forest service timber sales in the pacific northwest were common in the 1970s of course prices may be low for reasons other than collusion we formulate an empirical model that allows for both bidder collusion and supply effects and in which we control for demand conditions noncooperative behavior in which a single unit is sold the standard auction model is a special case it is found to be definitively outperformed by a model of collusion we also find that supply effects are dominated by collusion in determining the winning bids in the market

divisionalization franchising and divestiture incentives in oligopoly a two stage game is used to model firms strategic incentives to divide production among autonomous competing units through divisionalization franchising or divestiture firms simultaneously choose their number of competing units which then engage in cournot competition while it is costly to form autonomous units each firm does so in equilibrium thus reducing firm profits and increasing social welfare relative to the case where firms cannot form competing units with linear demand and costs duopolists choose the socially optimal number of competing units oligopolies with larger numbers of firms choose too many the case of nonlinear demand is also examined copyright 1996 by american economic association

consumer loss aversion product experimentation and tacit collusion abstract two firms compete to attract loss averse consumers that are uncertain about how well the goods on sale fit their needs to resolve valuation uncertainty firms can allow prospective customers to test experiment their products before purchase we investigate firms dynamic incentives to allow experimentation and analyze the resulting effects on the profitability and the stability of tacit collusion depending on the regulatory regime in place i e whether experimentation is forbidden mandated or simply allowed but not imposed laissez faire the degree of loss aversion has ambiguous effects both on the profits that firms can achieve through tacit collusion and on the stability of these agreements while in static environments consumer welfare is always maximized by a policy that forbids experimentation the opposite happens in a dynamic environment

optimal collusion proof auctions abstract we study an optimal collusion proof auction in an environment where subsets of bidders may collude not just on their bids but also on their participation despite their ability to collude on participation informational asymmetry facing the potential colluders can be exploited significantly to weaken their collusive power the second best auction i e the optimal auction in a collusion free environment can be made collusion proof if at least one bidder is not collusive or there are multiple bidding cartels or the second best outcome involves a non trivial probability of the object not being sold regardless optimal collusion proof auction prescribes non trivial exclusion of collusive bidders i e a refusal to sell to any collusive bidder with positive probability

identification and inference in ascending auctions with correlated private values we introduce and apply a new nonparametric approach to identification and inference on data from ascending auctions we exploit variation in the number of bidders across auctions to nonparametrically identify useful bounds on seller profit and bidder surplus using a general model of correlated private values that nests the standard independent private values ipv model we also translate our identified bounds into closed form and asymptotically valid confidence intervals for several economic measures of interest applying our methods to much studied u s forest service timber auctions we find evidence of correlation among values after controlling for a rich vector of relevant auction covariates this correlation causes expected profit the profit maximizing reserve price and bidder surplus to be substantially lower than conventional ipv analysis of the data would suggest

complements and substitutes in sequential auctions the case of water auctions we use data on sequential water auctions to estimate demand when units are com plements or substitutes a sequential english auction model determines the estimating structural equations when units are complements one bidder wins all units by paying a high price for the first unit thus deterring others from bidding on subsequent units when units are substitutes different bidders win the units with positive probability paying prices similar in magnitude even when the same bidder wins all units we re cover individual demand consistent with this stark pattern of outcomes and confirm it is not collusive but consistent with non cooperative behavior demand estimates are biased if one ignores these features

the stability of the cournot oligopoly model a reassessment abstract the stability properties of the cournot oligopoly model are examined for the continuous adjustment process sufficient conditions for instability are established which are shown to be of significance when the number of firms n is small local and global stability are shown under appropriate conditions which for global stability include the restriction n 5 the proof of global stability corrects a well known proof by f hahn rev econ stud 29 1962 329 331 results for the discrete time adjustment process are reported and the restrictiveness of the model s assumptions are discussed

robust collusion with private information the game theoretic literature on collusion has been hard pressed to explain why a cartel should engage in price wars without resorting to either impatience symmetry restrictions inability to communicate or failure to optimize this paper introduces a new explanation that relies on none of these assumptions if the cartel s member firms have private information about their costs price wars can be optimal in the face of complexity specifically equilibria that are robust to pay off irrelevant disruptions of the information environment generically cannot attain or approximate efficiency an optimal robust equilibrium must allocate market shares inefficiently and may call for price wars under certain conditions for a two firm cartel cost interdependence is a sufficient condition for price wars to arise in an optimal robust equilibrium that optimal equilibria are inefficient generically applies not only to collusion games but also to the entire separable pay off environment a class that includes most typical economic models copyright 2012 oxford university press

welfare optimal patent royalties when imitation is costly we identify welfare optimal patent royalties in a model of costly imitation entry and imperfect competition when the social planner may impose a compulsory license optimal royalties either blockade imitation facilitating unregulated monopoly or yield an aggregate zero profit efficient duopoly when duopoly is optimal the optimal per unit royalty pins the equilibrium price at the aggregate average cost and the optimal fixed royalty shifts surplus so the patentee and imitator break even efficient duopoly yields higher welfare than monopoly for sufficiently low invention cost and may also yield higher welfare than a prize system interestingly royalty payments may be negative because of this efficient duopoly may not be feasible if the planner must instead direct the courts to use such royalties

comparative statics for oligopoly demand shift effects when demand rises in an imperfectly competitive industry price output profits consumer surplus and welfare may individually rise or fall the possibilities are thus broader than with either a demand shift under competition or a cost shift in either typ e of industry systematic relationships are established showing howe ver that the pattern of effects cannot be arbitrary imperfect compe tition is necessary for profits to fall when demand rises profits alw ays rise with either perfect competition or perfect collusion this a gain contrasts with the cost shift case where imperfect competition is not necessary for perverse profit effects copyright 1988 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

bidding behavior and experience in internet auctions abstract we study the role of experience in internet art auctions by analyzing repeated bidding by the same bidder in a unique longitudinal field dataset our results show that experience significantly lowers the level of bids suggesting that bidders change their bidding behavior throughout time participating in more than ten auctions brings down average bids by up to 26 we further test several possible explanations for the observed learning behavior and show that the change in bidding strategy is a result of a change in within auction behavior that is generated with experience our results are robust to concerns of endogenous participation as well as bidder fixed effects

endogenous timing in the presence of non monotonicities the aim of this paper is to generalize the endogenous timing game proposed by hamilton and slutsky games and economic behavior 1990 2 pp 29 46 by allowing the payoff or the marginal payoff of a player to become non monotonic with respect to the strategy of the opponent we propose a taxonomy of the subgame perfect nash equilibria based on the characteristics of the payoff functions proposed by eaton canadian journal of economics 2004 37 pp 805 29 we determine under which conditions of the initial payoff functions commitment has a social value and when the simultaneous move nash equilibrium is commitment robust and discuss its pareto efficiency

an anatomy of cartel contracts we study cartel contracts using data on 18 contract clauses of 109 legal finnish manufacturing cartels one third of the clauses relate to raising profits the others deal with instability through incentive compatibility cartel organization or external threats cartels use three main approaches to raise profits price market allocation and specialization these appear to be substitutes choosing one has implications on how cartels deal with instability simplifying we find that large cartels agree on prices cartels in homogenous goods industries allocate markets and small cartels avoid competition through specialization

supermodularity and complementarity in economics an elementary survey the literature on supermodular optimization and games is surveyed from the perspective of potential users in economics this methodology provides a new approach for comparative statics based only on critical assumptions and allows a general analysis of games with strategic complementarities the results are presented in a simplified yet rigourous manner without reference to lattice theory for the special case of one dimensional parameter and actions sets with the emphasis being on wide accessibility detailed applications are presented for well known models of consumer behavior monopoly pass through bertrand and cournot competition strategic r d search and matching wherever appropriate useful tricks for applications and comparative comments are inserted

cournot and the oligopoly problem cournot s recherches sw les principes mathpmatiques de la thiorie des richesses 1838 contribution to economic theory ranges from the formulation of the concept of demand function to the analysis of price determination in different market structures from monopoly to perfect competition he is credited for being the pioneer in the use of mathematics in economic analysis nevertheless cournot is most known for his theory of oligopoly cournot claimed that prices would also be determined under oligopolistic rivalry he envisioned firms the celebrated mineral water producers competing independently deciding about their production levels and bringing to the market the output where a price emerges from the interaction of supply and demand an equilibrium is reached when the output of any firm is a best response to the other firms outputs that is when each firm chooses an output level that maximizes profits given the outputs chosen by the rivals the equilibrium involves a price above the marginal cost of production cournot thought furthermore that this equilibrium would be stable in the sense that a departure from it would be self correcting through a series of reactions of the firms the disequilibrium dynamics would be governed by the best response functions of the firms that is by the functions that give the optimal output of a firm in terms of the outputs of the rivals cournot also evoked the question of why is it that firms do not come to an understanding and agree on sharing the market at the monopoly price the answer is that from the point of view of a firm if the rivals follow the agreement it is in the interest of the firm to depart from it since this way it can increase its profits in other words there is an incentive to cheat cournot thought that monopoly or cartel type agreements could only be maintained by means of a formal engagement p 83 our author also considered competition of

lechatelier samuelson principle in games and pass through of shocks abstract the lechatelier samuelson principle states that as a reaction to a shock an agent s short run adjustment of an affected action is smaller than its long run adjustment when the agent can also adjust other related actions we extend the principle to strategic environments where the long run adjustment also accounts for other players adjusting their strategies we show that the principle holds for supermodular games strategic complements satisfying monotone comparative statics and provide sufficient conditions for the principle to hold in games of strategic substitutes heterogeneity we discuss the principle s implications for cost pass through of multiproduct firms

the revenue effects of the kennedy and reagan tax cuts some time series estimates univariate time series models are estimated for sample periods ending with the enactment of major tax reductions in 1964 and 1981 these models are used to forecast government revenue for the period following the tax cut and the pattern of forecast errors is examined unforecast revenue is negative and large relative to its standard error following the 1981 tax cuts but is close to zero following the 1964 cuts this disparity occurs because national output behaved differently in the two cases suggesting that short run movements in output are dominated by factors other than tax rate changes

collusion and information revelation in auctions abstract the theoretical literature on collusion in auctions suggests that the first price mechanism can deter the formation of bidding rings however such analyses neglect to consider the effects of failed collusion attempts wherein information revealed in the negotiation process may affect bidding behaviour we experimentally test a setup in which theory predicts no collusion and no information revelation in first price auctions the results reveal a hitherto overlooked failing of the first price mechanism failed collusion attempts distort bidding behaviour resulting in a loss of seller revenue and efficiency moreover the first price mechanism does not result in less collusion than the second price mechanism we conclude that while the features of the first price mechanism may have the potential to deter bidder collusion the role of beliefs in guiding bidding behaviour make it highly susceptible to distortions arising from the informational properties of collusive negotiation auction designers should take this phenomenon into account when choosing the auction mechanism

the effect of state and local taxes on economic development a meta analysis economists and policy makers have long questioned the effect of state and local taxes on economic development according to schmenner 55 economists have long argued that taxes had little impact on business location decisions while development practitioners and elected officials ignored this advice and aggressively pursued development by using tax incentives more recent research using improved data and methodologies has begun to show that taxes can make a difference and the emerging consensus among economists now says that taxes do matter this changing view among researchers is perhaps best exemplified in a 1991 study by timothy j bartik 2 bartik examined 84 econometric studies completed since 1979 which assess the impact of state and local taxes on economic growth in the u s he concluded that the long run elasticity of business activity with respect to state and local taxes was between 10 and 60 for studies focusing on intermetropolitan or interstate business economic activity and between 1 0 and 3 0 for intrametropolitan areas however bartik s study did not control for a variety of study characteristics that may have influenced the measured elasticity this study builds upon bartik s analysis by performing a meta analysis of the studies bartik reviewed meta analysis is a method for statistically analyzing results across empirical studies though it has been little used by economists researchers in psychology education and health sciences have used meta analysis extensively this study uses a meta analytic technique suggested by stanley and jarrell 57 to analyze the studies reviewed by bartik the technique yields increased precision for our understanding of the relationship between state and local taxes and economic development the objective of this study is two fold first to derive a more precise estimate of the tax elasticity and second to determine how the inclusion and omission of key variables in the estimated equations influences the elasticity estimates

on the effects of entry in cournot markets in the framework of symmetric cournot oligopoly this paper provides two minimal sets of assumptions on the demand and cost functions that imply respectively that as the number of firms increases the minimal and maximal equilibria lead to i decreasing industry price and increasing or decreasing per firm output and ii increasing industry price and decreasing per firm output in both cases per firm profits are decreasing the analysis relies crucially on lattice theoretic methods and yields general unambiguous and easily interpretable conclusions of a global nature as a byproduct of independent interest new insight into existence of cournot equilibrium is developed

when are nash equilibria independent of the distribution of agents characteristics author s bergstrom ted varian hal r abstract we present examples of nash equilibria that do not vary with the distribution of a parameter across agents and then offer a general theorem that characterizes this independence

the bidder exclusion effect we introduce a new simple to compute test of independence of valuations and the number of bidders for ascending button auctions with symmetric conditionally independent private values the test involves estimating the expected revenue drop from excluding a bidder at random which can be computed as a scaled sample average of a difference of order statistics this object also provides a bound on counterfactual revenue changes from optimal reserve pricing or bidder mergers we illustrate the approach using data from timber auctions where we find some evidence that bidder valuations and the number of participants are not independent

on the existence of cournot equilibrium this paper examines the existence of n firm cournot equilibrium in a market for a single homogeneous commodity it proves that if each firm s marginal revenue declines as the aggregate output of other firms increases which is implied by concave inverse demand then a cournot equilibrium exists without assuming that firms have nondecreasing marginal cost or identical technologies also if the marginal revenue condition fails at a potential optimal point there is a set of firms such that no cournot equilibrium exists the paper also contains an example of nonexistence with two nonidentical firms each with constant returns to scale production