growth and unemployment this paper analyses the effects of growth on long run unemployment using a search model of equilibrium unemployment where growth arises explicitly from the introduction of new technologies that require labour reallocation for their implementation the analysis uncovers and compares between two competing effects of growth on unemployment the first is a capitalisation effect whereby an increase in growth raises the capitalised returns from creating jobs and consequently reduces the equilibrium rate of unemployment the second is a creative destruction effect whereby an increase in growth reduces the duration of a job match thereby raising the equilibrium level of unemployment both directly by raising the job separation rate and indirectly by discouraging the creation of job vacancies this paper asks the question of how the rate of economic growth affects unemployment in the long run the main consideration that leads us to think that this is an interesting question has to do with the re allocative aspect of growth in the long run faster economic growth must come from a faster increase in knowledge to the extent that the advancement of knowledge is embodied in industrial innovations it is likely to raise the job destruction rate through automation skill obsolescence and the bankruptcy associated with the process of creative destruction in short increased growth is likely to produce an increased rate of job turnover and the search theories of lucas and prescott 1974 and pissarides 1990 imply that an increased rate of job turnover will result in a higher natural rate of unemployment this conclusion is also consistent with the empirical results of davis and haltiwanger 1990 which show that periods of high unemployment tend to be periods of high job turnover at the establishment level it suggests the possibility of a positive longrun tradeoff between growth and unemployment at least over some range there has been relatively little attention paid to our question in the literature on longrun determinants of unemployment for example the recent empirical examination by layard nickell and jackman 1991 of unemployment rates among oecd countries did not even consider the rate of economic growth as a possible explanatory variable this is consistent with the seminal theoretical work of phelps 1968 which implies that the natural rate of unemployment is independent of the rate of productivity growth the only

the empirical content of the roy model this paper clarifies and extends the classical roy model of self selection and earnings inequality the original roy model based on the assumption that log skills are normally distributed is shown to imply that pursuit of comparative advantage in a free market reduces earnings inequality compared to the earnings distribution that would result if workers were randomly assigned to sectors aggregate log earnings are right skewed even if one sectoral distribution is left skewed most major implications of the log normal roy model survive if differences in skills are log concave however few implications of the model survive if skills are generated from more general distributions we consider the identifiability of the roy model from data on earnings distributions the normal theory version is identifiable without regressors or exclusion restrictions sectoral distributions can be identified knowing only the aggregate earnings distribution for general skill distributions the model is not identified and has no empirical content with sufficient price variation the model can be identified from multimarket data cross sectional variation in regressors can substitute for price variation in restoring empirical content to the roy model

the uk demand for cigarettes 1954 1986 a double hurdle approach the double hurdle perspective suggests that it is crucial to distinguish between per capita and per smoker consumption when estimating the demand for cigarettes this paper presents a two equation model which identifies consumption and participation as two separate decisions the model is estimated with annual data on u k cigarette expenditure and participation rates highlighting the differing influence of prices income and health scares on the participation rate and on smokers demand for cigarettes

zero observations and gender differences in cigarette consumption censoring mechanisms and gender differences are investigated for cigarette consumption by individuals in the usa the gaussian single hurdle model is proposed which generalizes the specifications of cragg 1971 and heckman 1979 and allows examination of the empirical relevance of the two censoring mechanisms in the existing double hurdle model the proposed model performs better than cragg s and heckman s models but not as well as the double hurdle model and also produces different elasticity estimates the hypothesis of equal consumption parameters is rejected and demand elasticities found to differ between men and women income does not play a role and age has conflicting effects on the probability and level of cigarette smoking older individuals are less likely to smoke but conditional on smoking consume more cigarettes than their younger counterparts education has negative effects on the probability and level of smoking and can be an effective tool to curtail cigarette smoking

estimating fishing and hunting leisure spending shares in the united states abstract we apply a bivariate censored demand system to estimate hunting and fishing trip related spending shares in the united states using data from off site surveys the approach considers fishing and hunting destination decisions and includes respondents who were inactive i e did not hunt or fished in a particular season the statistical significance of correlation coefficient parameter supports the use of a joint e g bivariate rather than separate e g univariate decision modeling process for fishing or hunting share equations most individual characteristics are statistically significant as explanatory variables respondents holding recreation licenses tended to spend significantly more on recreation than those without licenses all own price and cross price elasticities are statistically significant and suggest that hunting and fishing are complements the results also suggest that the popularity of hunting may decline as the population ages

the potential for using excise taxes to reduce smoking we examine the potential for reducing cigarette smoking through increases in cigarette excise taxes by estimating the price elasticity of demand for cigarettes using information on individual smoking behavior from the 1976 health interview survey we estimate the adult price elasticity of demand for cigarettes to be 0 42 we find that price has its greatest effect on the smoking behavior of young males and that it operates primarily on the decision to smoke rather than via adjustments in the quantity of cigarettes smoked an excise tax increase would discourage smoking by successive cohorts of young adults and those reduced smoking levels would be reflected in aggregate smoking as these cohorts mature

a double hurdle approach to modelling tobacco consumption in italy this article analyzes the determinants of tobacco expenditures for a sample of italian households a box cox double hurdle model adjusted for heteroscedasticity is estimated to account for separate individual decisions concerning smoking participation and tobacco consumption and to correct for nonnormality in the bivariate distribution of the error terms nested univariate and bivariate models are found to be excessively restrictive supporting the adequacy of a generalized specification estimation results show that consumption decisions are significantly affected by income and demographic characteristics in particular income positively impacts tobacco expenditure while participation probability substantially declines as age increases the existence of significant gender differences in both smoking participation and tobacco consumption patterns is found while high education and white collar occupation reduces the likelihood to smoke and tobacco expenditure levels single adult households have a lower

is post smoking cessation weight gain a significant trigger for relapse while the surgeon general s consumer guide lists weight gain as an important relapse trigger the 2001 surgeon general s report on women and smoking concludes paradoxically that actual weight gain during cessation does not appear to predict relapse this dichotomous view reflects longstanding scientific uncertainty about the role of weight gain in triggering relapse this scientific uncertainty which stems from mixed clinical trial results is problematic for insurance coverage decisions such as state medicaid programme decisions to cover or exclude smoking cessation and weight control pharmaceuticals analysts hypothesize that selection bias may explain the inconsistency between the negative clinical results and the persistent view that weight gain triggers relapse if weight concern is both a key determinant of the transition from smoker to ex smoker and a key moderating variable in the relationship between weight gain and relapse we therefore use the nationally representative 1997 national lon

do expenditures on tobacco control decrease smoking prevalence effectiveness of tobacco control programmes in reducing smoking prevalence during 2001 to 2005 is examined tobacco control spending is found to exert no significant effects on smoking prevalence across the 50 states cigarette prices are found to lower prevalence of daily smokers but exert no effect on nondaily smoking prevalence several reasons are suggested for why these results might conflict with previous research these include that most previous studies examined two states california and massachusetts with long standing tobacco control programmes and that most studies examined periods in which many of the states in their samples did not actively fund their programmes another reason may be that unlike most previous studies this study controls for the possibility that tobacco control spending is endogenous when for example states exhibiting relatively low smoking prevalence are also states with relatively high distaste for smoking and accordingly fund tobacco control programmes more generous

gender and household education expenditure in pakistan pakistan has very large gender gaps in educational outcomes one explanation could be that girls receive lower educational expenditure allocations than boys within the household but this has never convincingly been tested this article investigates whether the intra household allocation of educational expenditure in pakistan favours males over females it also explores two different explanations for the failure of the extant engel curve studies to detect gender differentiated treatment in education even where gender bias is strongly expected using individual level data from the latest household survey from pakistan we posit two potential channels of gender bias bias in the decision whether to enrol keep sons and daughters in school and bias in the decision of education expenditure conditional on enrolling both sons and daughters in school in middle and secondary school ages evidence points to significant pro male biases in both the enrolment decision as well as the decision of how much to spend conditional on enrolment however in the primary school age group only the former channel of bias applies results suggest that the observed strong gender difference in education expenditure is a within rather than an across household phenomenon

consumer behaviour theory and empirical evidence a survey this survey is designed to emphasize the relationship between empirical a nd theoretical considerations in the analysis of consumer behavior a lthough it focuses primarily on analysis at the individual or micro l evel it tries where possible to draw implications for the estimati on of aggregate relationships the importance of micro level analysis stems from the rapid expansion in available panel and survey data se ts this development has generated its own theoretical and empirical issues many of which are raised in this survey copyright 1988 by royal economic society

the british electricity experiment the privatization of the electricity supply industry esi in britain which began 1990 is in itself an unremarkable event much of the esi is privately owned in several european countries and in the united states and the u k privatization program has embraced utilities since 1984 when british telecom was privatized the thing that is remarkable about recent policy toward the industry is the radical nature of the regulatory reform accompanying privatization a vertically integrated administered generation and transmission structure was replaced overnight on march 31 1990 by one that is deintegrated and market based generation and transmission have been separated and there has been an attempt to establish competition in generation a number of countries have been moving gradually in the direction of encouraging competition but nowhere else have such dramatic changes been implemented so quickly

a theory of rational addiction we develop a theory of rational addiction in which rationality means a consistent plan to maximize utility over time strong addiction to a good requires a big effect of past consumption of the good on current consumption such powerful complementarities cause some steady states to be unstable they are an important part of our analysis because even small deviations from the consumption at an unstable steady state can lead to large cumulative rises over time in addictive consumption or to rapid falls in consumption to abstention our theory also implies that cold turkey is used to end strong addictions that addicts often go on binges that addicts respond more to permanent than to temporary changes in prices of addictive goods and that anxiety and tensions can precipitate an addiction

determinants of state tobacco control expenditures while centers for disease control and prevention believe that most state governments under fund tobacco control programs little is known about why large variation in spending exists between state governments this study explores reasons for spending variation through an econometric model of per capita spending on tobacco control programs that explores the effects of smoking prevalence while holding constant tobacco settlement funds state budget deficits and other factors that might also be expected to influence spending variation empirical evidence indicates no support for the hypothesis that states with high smoking prevalence spend more on tobacco control than other states this finding may be quite surprising to those working in areas of public health and clearly leads to many important policy questions regarding why the data indicate that funding does not appear to bear any relation to perceived public health problems as would be predicted if policymakers were following a rational needs approach

incentives to invest in liberalised electricity industries in the north and south differences in the need for suitable institutional arrangements the issue of investment is all too often underplayed in deregulation reforms focused on market rules and de integration measures this presentation criticises first the optimistic approach of the theory of investment incentives through market signals when it is applied to deregulated electricity industries the greater part of the investment in base load and peak equipment should be made profitable by income from very high prices during peak and extreme peak periods that raises a problem of political acceptability the problem is then addressed in the context of the mature electricity industries in the north given the maturity of markets there a number of modifications to the pure market model could be envisaged to strengthen incentives to invest but none of them is perfect the main way is to focus on adaptation of market rules on the supply of power at peaks and extreme peaks by considering capacity adequacy as a public good with three solutions capacity payment reserve obligations centralised procurement by auctioning for peak capacity observation of reforms suggests also the validity of some other solutions based on a limitation of the competition by allowing long term contracts and vertical integration between production and supply finally the question is extended to the specific problem of developing countries characterised by irregular growth it is argued that reforms must be designed in view of the importance of the need for investment through long term coordination and reduction of investment risks indeed experiences of latin american liberalised industries show that they have to include a number of competition based imperfections and to allow ongoing exercise of market power in order to allow prices to rise above competition prices the single buyer model or some variants of it appear to be good alternatives if one wishes to avoid the twists and turns of the competition paradigm the difficulty with this model arises from the institutional conditions necessary to make it efficient and not overcostly c 2005 elsevier ltd all rights reserved

reforms in the french power system from weak contestability to effective competition abstract one way to introduce competition in the power industries is to preserve the integration of the incumbent companies and to organise the access of potential competitors to the network on a fair basis but the combination of hierarchy and bilateral contracts between entrants ipp candidates foreign producers intermediaries suppliers and consumers appears to be unstable because of permanent tensions between the incumbent s dominant position and fair competition moreover in an institutional environment enlarged by the supranational powers of the european union heterogeneity of rules and structures between quasi integrated power industries and decentralised competitive ones are sources of permanent questioning the paper analyses the stability of the recent reform of the french power industry the extreme integration of which being deeply rooted in the french institutional peculiarities has been weakly affected by the directive 96 92 transcription two institutional scenarios are defined which give a different weight to two competition paradigms in conflicts one pertains to the industrial policy which inclines to preserve hierarchy in the national area to gain national champion s competitive advantages in the european as in the global field and the other to the neo classical paradigm of effective competition in the first scenario the integration of the industrial organisation is preserved but with transparent grid access rules supposed to create an actual market contestability and the playing field is the continental europe on which national champions compete in the second one the french industrial organisation has to conform to the competitive model with vertical and horizontal disintegration and creation of a power exchange market for promoting competition but this scenario is heavily strained by the institutional determinism of the nuclear legacy the future reality should be set between these two scenarios

demand for cigarettes a mixed binary ordered probit approach this study analyses the demand for cigarettes fitting observed zero outcomes with a trivariate model consisting of an equation for the starting smoking decision an equation for the quitting decision and an equation that models the level of cigarettes consumed five competing specifications are considered to explain level with the ordered probit which accommodates pile ups of counts in the dependent variable providing the best fit marginal effects of explanatory variables are calculated providing strong evidence of race and gender differences in consumption patterns the estimated marginal effects are robust to alternative categorizations of the level of cigarettes

turbulence and unemployment in a job matching model according to ljungqvist and sargent 1998 high european unemployment since the 1980s can be explained by a rise in economic turbulence leading to greater numbers of unemployed workers with obsolete skills these workers refuse new jobs due to high unemployment benefits in this paper we reassess the turbulence unemployment relationship using a matching model with endogenous job destruction in our model higher turbulence reduces the incentives of employed workers to leave their jobs if turbulence has only a tiny effect on the skills of workers experiencing endogenous separation then the results of ljungqvist and sargent 1998 2004 are reversed and higher turbulence leads to a reduction in unemployment thus changes in turbulence cannot provide an explanation for european unemployment that reconciles the incentives of both unemployed and employed workers jel e24 j64

a double hurdle model of cigarette consumption this paper shows the importance of the double hurdle approach for modelling individuals cigarette consumption using data from the uk general household survey and argues that participation and consumption should be treated as separate individual choices the likelihood function for the full double hurdle is derived and it is shown how restrictions on the stochastic specification of the model and auxillary information which identifies ex smokers allow it to be decomposed the empirical results highlight the value of the sample separation information and the need to model starting and quitting as separate decisions

distributional dynamics following a technological revolution in this paper we explore the link between technological change and the dynamics of employment production and the distribution of earnings technological change not only advances society s collective capability but also changes the relative productivities of its members the latter effect establishes the likely winners and losers from advances in productive capabilities provides a mechanism that can generate cyclical fluctuations in output as well as employment and determines the evolution of the earnings distribution dynamique de la repartition a la suite d une revolution technologique ce memoire examine le lien entre le changement technologique et la dynamique de l emploi de la production et de la repartition des revenus le changement technologique n augmente pas seulement la capacite collective d une societe mais modifie aussi les productivites relatives de ses membres ce dernier effet cree des gagnants et des perdants declenche un mecanisme qui peut generer des fluctuations cycliques tant dans le niveau de production que dans celui de l emploi et determine l evolution de la repartition des revenus

family decision making for educational expenditure new evidence from survey data for nigeria this study examines the determinants of educational expenditures by households in nigeria data from the nigerian general household survey panel 2012 2013 wave 2 was used and a double hurdle mode