which fiscal multipliers are regime dependent a meta regression analysis we analyse whether estimated multiplier effects are systematically higher if the economy suffers a downturn for that purpose we conduct a meta regression analysis on a unique data set of 98 empirical studies with more than 1800 observations on multiplier effects and control for regime dependence of the multiplier we find that spending multipliers are much higher by about 0 7 0 9 units during a downturn tax multipliers are not sensitive to the economic regime and generally lower than spending multipliers finally for all spending categories other than government consumption the multiplier significantly exceeds one during downturns

multi directional efficiency analysis of efficiency patterns in chinese banks 1997 2008 dea type efficiency studies are often used to investigate levels of efficiencies differences in those levels between subgroups within a data set and possible determinants of such differences in the current paper we show how differences in the efficiency patterns between different subgroups within a data set can be investigated using the more recent mea methodology we specifically look at the case of joint stock banks and state owned banks in china and are able to empirically test hypotheses of whether there are differences not only in the levels but also in the patterns of inefficiencies between the two types of banks that is which variables the inefficiencies are located on we argue that certain differences are expected based on differences in objectives and constraints in the two types of banks and find empirical support for most of those expected patterns

absorptive capacity and the effects of foreign direct investment and equity foreign portfolio investment on economic growth abstract this study examines the effects of foreign direct investment fdi and equity foreign portfolio investment efpi on economic growth using data on 80 countries from 1979 through 1998 the results largely suggest that lagged fdi and efpi do not have direct unmitigated positive effects on growth but some data are consistent with the view that the effects of fdi and efpi are contingent on the absorptive capacity of host countries with particular respect to financial or institutional development moreover extreme bound analysis eba of significant results indicates that the estimates are robust compared to other empirical studies on growth

multi unit demand auctions with synergies behavior in sealed bid versus ascending bid uniform price auctions abstract we construct a relatively simple model of bidding with synergies and solve it for both open outcry and sealed bid uniform price auctions the essential behavioral forces involved in these auctions are 1 a demand reduction force resulting from the monopsony power that bidders with multiple unit demands have when synergies are relatively inconsequential and 2 bidding above stand alone values in order to capture significant complementarities between units the latter creates a potential exposure problem as bidders may win only parts of a package and earn negative profits bidding outcomes are closer to equilibrium in clock compared to sealed bid auctions however there are substantial and systematic deviations from equilibrium with patterns of out of equilibrium play differing systematically between the two auction formats these patterns of out of equilibrium play are analyzed along with their effects on revenue and efficiency

the robust result in meta analysis of aid effectiveness a response to mekasha and tarp in this response to mekasha and tarp 2013 we show that contrary to what they state their study validates our basic analysis they confirm that the literature finds that aid is of little economic importance in generating growth the results also show that the literature systematically selects control variables for their effect on aid effectiveness we argue that their choice of the random effects model is not appropriate for the problem at hand and that the way they use multiple meta regression analysis contradicts the robust results reached at the basic analysis

micro data heterogeneity and the evaluation of public policy nobel lecture this paper summarizes the contributions of microeconometrics to economic knowledge four main themes are developed 1 microeconometricians developed new tools to respond to econometric problems raised by the analysis of the new sources of micro data produced after the second world war 2 microeconometrics improved on aggregate time series methods by building models that linked economic models for individuals to data on individual behavior 3 an important empirical regularity detected by the field is the diversity and heterogeneity of behavior this heterogeneity has profound consequences for economic theory and for econometric practice 4 microeconometrics has contributed substantially to the scientific evaluation of public policy

self confirming price prediction strategies for simultaneous one shot auctions abstract bidding in simultaneous auctions is challenging because an agent s value for a good in one auction may depend on the outcome of other auctions that is bidders face an exposure problem previous works have tackled the exposure problem with heuristic strategies that employ probabilistic price predictions so called price prediction strategies we introduce a concept of self confirming prices and show that within an independent private value model bayes nash equilibrium can be fully characterized as a profile of optimal price prediction strategies with self confirming prices we operationalize this observation by exhibiting a practical procedure to compute near self confirming price predictions given a price prediction strategy an extensive empirical game theoretic analysis demonstrates that bidding strategies that use such predictions are effective in simultaneous auctions with both complementary and substitutable preference structures in particular we produce one such strategy that finds near optimal bids thereby outperforming all previously studied bidding heuristics in these environments

income generating effects of biofuel policies a meta analysis of the cge literature abstract while the production of biofuels has expanded in recent years findings in the literature on its impact on economic growth and development remain contradictory this paper presents a meta analysis of computable general equilibrium cge studies published between 2006 and 2017 on the effect of biofuel production on economic development worldwide using 30 cge studies we found that biofuel supportive policies generated significant impacts on gdp and household incomes cge studies included in our database reported an average 0 25 percentage point increase in gdp and a 0 49 percentage point increase in household incomes we also found that results were driven by several key features of the cge studies included in our database we investigated features such as biofuel type geographic area and characteristics of the cge models employed we found that biofuel expansion has heterogeneous effects in developed versus emerging countries simulations on longer time periods and in multi country studies led to results that indicate higher impacts of biofuel expansion on gdp growth and household incomes moreover simulations with an increase in agricultural productivity indicate positive welfare impact gains unlike simulations with land expansion lastly we found that biodiesel development leads to higher welfare impact gains than that of bioethanol

the financial development and growth nexus a meta analysis this is the accepted manuscript the final version is available from wiley at http onlinelibrary wiley com doi 10 1111 joes 12086 abstract

financial development and economic growth a meta analysis we analyze 1334 estimates from 67 studies that examine the effect of financial development on economic growth taken together the studies imply a positive and statistically significant effect but the individual estimates vary widely we find that both research design and heterogeneity in the underlying effect play a role in explaining the differences in results studies that do not address endogeneity tend to overstate the effect of finance on growth while the effect seems to be weaker in less developed countries the effect decreases worldwide after the 1980s our results also suggest that stock markets support faster economic growth than other financial intermediaries

the use and abuse of meta analysis in environmental and natural resource economics an assessment motivated by the 2006 report of a work group appointed by the environmental protection agency epa this paper examines the present state of meta analysis in environmental economics and offers recommendations for its future use to this end we summarize and assess 140 meta analyses from 125 published and unpublished studies covering 17 topical categories in environmental and resource economics first we provide several generic meta analysis models as reference points and discuss major estimation issues five econometric issues are identified as part of a complete analysis 1 sample selection criteria 2 basic data summary 3 primary data heterogeneity 4 heteroskedasticity and 5 non independence of multiple observations from primary studies second a tabular summary is presented for the 140 meta analyses with respect to estimation methods third a narrative summary is presented for 19 meta analyses including the three value of statistical life studies examined by the epa work group and one analysis from each of 16 other categories fourth we offer a set of best practice guidelines for future meta analyses in this and other areas of economics last the paper comments on the use of meta analytic methods for benefit transfers of environmental values

are women really more risk averse than men a re analysis of the literature using expanded methods while a substantial literature in economics and finance has concluded that women are more risk averse than men this conclusion merits investigation after briefly clarifying the difference between making generalizations about groups on the one hand and making valid inferences from samples on the other this essay suggests improvements to how economists communicate our research results supplementing findings of statistical significance with quantitative measures of both substantive difference cohen s d a measure in common use in non economics literatures and of substantive overlap the index of similarity newly proposed here adds important nuance to the discussion of sex differences these measures are computed from the data on men women and risk used in 35 scholarly works from economics finance and decision science the results are considerably more mixed and overlapping than would commonly be inferred from the broad claims made in the literature with standardized differences in means mostly amounting to considerably less than one standard deviation and the degree of overlap between male and female distributions generally exceeding 80 in addition studies that look at contextual influences suggest that these contribute importantly to observations of differences both between and within the sexes

federal grants and yardstick competition abstract citizens may see a government which wins a grant in competition with other states as especially effective and may therefore want it to increase spending similarly a voter who sees that a neighboring jurisdiction got a grant which his jurisdiction did not may think poorly of the ability of local officials and therefore reduce his demand for local spending data on spending by states in the united states show these effects

the effect of fdi on environmental emissions evidence from a meta analysis one important and frequently raised issue about foreign direct investment fdi is the potentially negative consequences for the environment the potential environmental cost due to increased emissions may undermine the economic gains associated with increases in fdi inflow although the literature is dominated with this adverse view of fdi on the environment there is also a possibility that fdi can contribute to a cleaner environment especially if fdi comes with green technologies and this creates spillovers for domestic industries theoretically the effect of fdi on the environment can be negative or positive to deal with the theoretical ambiguity about the fdi environment nexus many empirical studies have been conducted but their results only reinforce the controversy as they produce contrasting results we conduct a meta analysis of the effect of fdi on environmental emissions using 65 primary studies that produce 1006 elasticities our results show that the underlying effect of fdi on environmental emissions is close to zero however after accounting for heterogeneity in the studies we find that fdi significantly reduces environmental emissions results remain robust after disaggregating the effect for countries at different levels of development as well as for different pollutants

international corporate tax avoidance a review of the channels magnitudes and blind spots this paper reviews the rapidly growing empirical literature on international tax avoidance by multinational corporations it surveys evidence on main channels of corporate tax avoidance including transfer mispricing international debt shifting treaty shopping tax deferral and corporate inversions moreover it performs a meta analysis of the extensive literature that estimates the overall size of profit shifting we find that the literature suggests that for the most recent year a 1 percentage point lower corporate tax rate compared to other countries will expand before tax income by 1 5 percent an effect that is larger than reported as the consensus estimate in previous surveys and tends to be increasing over time the literature on tax avoidance still has several unresolved puzzles and blind spots that require further research

spatial scale and product mix economies in u s banking with simultaneous spillover regimes the literature on bank scale economies focuses on the familiar type of returns to scale that are internal to the firm using a spatial approach we analyze returns to scale for banks that are made up of external i e spillover economies we extend ray scale economies rse expansion path scale economies epse and expansion path subadditivity epsu to the spatial case this involves introducing direct and composite and decomposed indirect rse epse and epsu these direct and indirect measures relate to the cost implications for a firm from a change in i the firm s output levels that are as is standard under its control and ii the composite decomposed spillover effect on the firm s output levels which is primarily but not entirely outside its control we include an application to u s banks 1998 2015 that allows a bank to simultaneously belong to a number of spatial networks which is typically what we observe for firms for large banks we find constant direct rse and epse and zero composite indirect rse and constant composite indirect epse these composite indirect results do not counteract any policy suggestions from the direct rse and epse concerning the debate on whether there should be size caps on very large u s banks the direct rse and epse for large banks suggest that these banks use society s resources efficiently to provide their services size caps on very large banks would place downward pressure on these direct rse and epse results which could lead to large banks using society s resources inefficiently

controlling for the use of extreme weights in bank efficiency assessments during the financial crisis we propose a method for bank efficiency assessment based on weight restricted dea that limits banks abilities to use extreme weights corresponding to extreme judgements of the risk adjusted prices on funding sources and assets based on a data set comprising the largest european banks during the financial crisis we illustrate the impact of the proposed weight restrictions in two different efficiency models one related to banks funding mix and one related to their asset mix the results show that using a more balanced set of weights tend to reduce the estimated efficiency scores more for those banks which were bailed out during the crisis which confirms the potential bias within standard dea that does not control for extreme weights applied by highly risky banks we discuss the use of the proposed method as a regulatory tool to constrain discretion when complying with regulatory capital benchmarks such as the basel regulatory capital ratios

whose greed whose grievance and whose opportunity effects of foreign direct investments fdi on internal conflict abstract this paper investigates the influence of foreign direct investments on the probability of civil conflict onset contributing to the debate on globalization and civil conflict i relax the common assumption that all forms of globalization are equivalent in their effects on civil conflict i also incorporate the cross sectoral heterogeneity of investments in existing arguments about the socioeconomic externalities of foreign direct investments as determinants of conflict with long time horizons and managerial control of their foreign affiliates foreign direct investors are strategic players aiming to maximize profits and uniquely able to alter their environment through socio political channels this distinguishes fdi from trade and foreign portfolio investments through a combination of political agency and socio economic influences on grievance and greed among domestic groups some types of fdi are likely to alleviate the risk of civil conflict service sector fdi while others exacerbate it primary sector fdi analyses using a new data set of sector specific fdi stock 1980 2013 lend empirical support to the argument showing that economic globalization can have simultaneous positive and negative externalities these findings are informative for the current dialogue on the role of global markets in sustainable development

a spatial productivity index in the presence of efficiency spillovers evidence for u s banks 1992 2015 abstract we present the methodology for a new spatial decomposition of total factor productivity tfp growth the relevant literature is underdeveloped as there is just one short study which proposes a partial spatial tfp growth decomposition we develop this literature in four respects the first two developments are methodological to go from a partial decomposition to a complete one first we augment the partial decomposition with a cost efficiency spillover growth component second we introduce own and spillover allocative efficiency growth components third we provide a more detailed coverage of the spatial decomposition of tfp growth fourth in contrast to the traditional application to geographical areas e g countries in the relevant literature we apply our decomposition using firm level data which suggests that there can be an important role for spatial productivity analysis in or our application is to large u s banks over the period 1992 2015 among other things we find for the average large u s bank that tfp growth since the financial crisis has become much more dependent on the bank itself and less so on spatial spillovers

foreign direct investment and economic growth an increasingly endogenous relationship summary this paper investigates whether foreign direct investment fdi affects economic growth based on a panel of data for 84 countries over the period 1970 99 both single equation and simultaneous equation system techniques are applied to examine this relationship a significant endogenous relationship between fdi and economic growth is identified from the mid 1980s onwards fdi not only directly promotes economic growth by itself but also indirectly does so via its interaction terms the interaction of fdi with human capital exerts a strong positive effect on economic growth in developing countries while that of fdi with the technology gap has a significant negative impact

a meta analysis of fdi and productivity spillovers in developing countries markdownabstractthis meta analysis reviews the intrasector heterogeneity of productivity spillovers from foreign direct investment fdi in 31 developing countries through a larger more comprehensive data set we investigate how the inconsistencies in the reported spillover findings are affected by publication bias characteristics of the data estimation techniques and empirical specification analyzing 1450 spillover estimates from 69 empirical studies published in 1986 2013 our findings suggest that reported fdi spillover estimates are affected by publication bias in combination with model misspecification of the primary studies the bias overstates the genuine underlying meta effect but the meta effect remains economically and statistically significant our results emphasize that spillovers and their sign largely depend systematically on specification characteristics of the primary studies and publication bias publication bias is not caused by best practice choices future research needs to cover more developing countries and to investigate not only whether spillovers occur but also to explore inside the black box of how spillovers actually emerge

assessing bank competition for consumer loans abstract based on frontier analysis we derive inferences of bank consumer loan competition from estimating a revenue cost competition efficiency ce frontier the competitiveness of the 400 billion u s bank consumer loan market is then assessed by comparing results from our frontier ce measure with other competition measures such as hhi lerner index and h statistic these measures are weakly related to one another and only half of them identify banks with the highest loan price as also being the least competitive this is the opposite of what is expected using the frontier ce measure the most and least competitive banks are not located in the most populous states and the largest banks are underrepresented overall the hhi should not be used to indicate competition

profit efficiency for spanish savings banks abstract frontier profit efficiency is examined for spanish savings banks over 1986 1991 a period in which the spanish banking has seen considerable deregulation in spain the standard assumption that firms operate in a perfectly competitive output market is unlikely to be met thus we use an alternative profit function specification which allows for market power in the output market profit efficiency is determined using the thick frontier approach and estimated using both alternative and standard profit function specifications to illustrate the effect of different assumptions regarding the competitiveness of the output market estimation of the alternative profit function suggests that the profit inefficiency of spanish savings banks which averaged 28 fell by forty percent between 1986 to 1991 the standard profit function which we believe yields less reliable results generated greater average inefficiency there was no significant shift up or down in the profit frontier itself

x efficiency in banking looking beyond the balance sheet the distribution free and stochastic frontier estimation methods are used to derive bank specific measures of cost and profit xefficiency this is done to investigate the importance of including aggregate measures of off balance sheet obs activities the results indicate that economic cost and production cost x efficiency estimates increase with the inclusion of the obs measure profit xefficiency estimates are largely unaffected further the composition of bankso obs activities appears to help explain interbank differences in cost and profit x efficiency estimates whereas bank size and the mix between on and off balance sheet banking activities are largely uncorrelated with the x efficiency estimates

did fdi really cause chinese economic growth a meta analysis summary foreign direct investment fdi has been linked to economic growth in a number of countries productivity spillovers at the firm level have been identified as a key element in the process by which fdi stimulates economic growth moreover there is evidence of fdi related productivity spillovers in china whether these spillovers have been of sufficient size to affect growth at the aggregate level however is an empirical question we apply meta analysis to the corresponding empirical literature to find an answer our main finding is that the effect of fdi on chinese economic growth is much smaller than one would expect from a naive aggregation of existing estimates publication bias and a profusion of estimates based on less preferred study and sample characteristics have served to inflate observed estimates once these effects are accounted for the estimated effect of fdi on chinese economic growth is reduced to statistical insignificance this suggests that the cause s of the chinese economic miracle likely lie elsewhere

meta analysis of economics research reporting guidelines meta regression analysis mra can provide objective and comprehensive summaries of economics research their use has grown rapidly over the last few decades to improve transparency and to raise the quality of mra the meta analysis of economics research network maer net has created the below reporting guidelines future meta analyses in economics will be expected to follow these guidelines or give valid reasons why a meta analysis must deviate from them

retailers and consumers in sequential auctions of collectibles we analyse an independent private value model where heterogeneous bidders compete for objects sold in sequential second price auctions in this heterogeneous game bidders may have differently distributed valuations and some have multi unit demand with decreasing marginal values retailers others have a specific single unit demand consumers by examining equilibrium bidding strategies and price sequences we show that the presence of consumers leads to more aggressive bidding from the retailers on average and heterogeneous bidders is a plausible explanation of the price decline effect the study of the expected revenue of the seller confirms the interest of auctioneers in inviting different types of bidders nous analysons un modele a valeurs privees independantes dans lequel des encherisseurs heterogenes sont en concurrence pour des objets vendus lors d encheres sequentielles au second prix dans ce jeu heterogene les encherisseurs tirent leurs evaluations de distributions qui peuvent differer et certains les revendeurs ont des demandes multi unitaires avec des evaluations marginales decroissantes alors que les autres les consommateurs ont une demande individuelle specifique l examen des strategies d equilibre et des sequences de prix montrent que la presence de consommateurs conduit en moyenne a des encheres plus agressives de la part des revendeurs et que la presence d encherisseurs heterogenes constitue une explication plausible a la decroissance des prix l etude de l esperance du revenu du vendeur confirme l interet des commissaires priseurs a inviter differentes categories d acheteurs

vertically differentiated simultaneous vickrey auctions theory and experimental evidence we study settings where a number of sellers simultaneously offer vertically differentiated vickrey auctions for imperfect substitute goods to unit demand buyers vertical differentiation can arise from differences in item quality item value certainty seller reliability or a combination of these factors we characterize the form of the bidding equilibria and derive expressions for the corresponding allocative efficiency and expected seller revenue when bidders are restricted to submit at most one bid our theory predicts the existence of a unique bayes nash equilibrium that resembles a form of probabilistic mating of likes allowing unit demand bidders to place an arbitrary number of bids induces complex strategy profiles where bidders place positive bids in all available auctions higher bidder types tend to follow more targeted strategies focusing their serious bids on fewer and generally higher quality auctions the nature of the bidding equilibria introduces allocative inefficiencies that arise from the lack of coordination in auction selection among bidders we test our theoretical propositions in a controlled laboratory experiment while also utilizing a domain specific risk score to help assess how the bidders risk type affects their bidding behavior in support of our theory we find evidence of a probabilistic assortative matching between bidder and auction types we also find that low risk type bidders tend to crowd on the highest auction and will pay a premium for the certainty it offers whereas high risk type bidders fail to appropriately adjust for risk associated with the lowest auction leading to overbidding these lead to an interesting focal anomaly whereby bids are concentrated on the highest and lowest auctions bypassing intermediate auctions

successful in the long run a meta regression analysis of persistent firm profits we study the profit persistence literature by applying meta regression analysis mra to a set of 36 empirical papers which analyze the persistence of abnormal firm profits over time the analyzed literature provides evidence for a mediocre degree of persistence in abnormal profits an initial analysis of the distribution of reported profit persistence estimates reveals some degree of excess variation this points toward publication bias that favors significant results independent of their algebraic sign the mra however reveals that publication bias is particularly favoring results that indicate profit persistence and thus contradict the neoclassical model of perfect competition moreover the mra enables to control for heterogeneity driven by the study design we find that the analyzed country developing vs developed the applied econometric approach as well as the analyzed period of time are significant drivers of heterogeneity in reported persistence estimates

do large banks have lower costs new estimates of returns to scale for u s banks this paper presents new fully nonparametric estimates of ray scale and expansion path scale economies for u s banks based on a model of bank costs unlike prior studies that use models with restrictive parametric assumptions or limited samples our methodology uses local polynomial estimators and data on all u s banks over the period 1984 2006 our estimates indicate that as recently as 2006 most u s banks faced increasing returns to scale suggesting that scale economies are a plausible but not necessarily only reason for the growth in average bank size and that the tendency toward increasing scale is likely to continue unless checked by government intervention

meta regression analysis a quantitative method of literature surveys abstract pedagogically literature reviews are instrumental they summarize the large literature written on a particular topic give coherence to the complex often disparate views expressed about an issue and serve as a springboard for new ideas however literature surveys rarely establish anything approximating unanimous consensus ironically this is just as true for the empirical economic literature to harmonize this dissonance we offer a quantitative methodology for reviewing the empirical economic literature meta regression analysis mra is the regression analysis of regression analyses mra tends to objectify the review process it studies the processes that produce empirical economic results as though they were any other social scientific phenomenon mra provides a framework for replication and offers a sensitivity analysis for model specification in this brief essay we propose a new method of reviewing economic literature mra and discuss its potential

enhanced geospatial validity for meta analysis and environmental benefit transfer an application to water quality improvements meta regression models are commonly used within benefit transfer to estimate willingness to pay wtp for environmental quality improvements theory suggests that these estimates should be sensitive to geospatial factors including resource scale market extent and the availability of substitutes and complements valuation meta regression models addressing the quantity of non market commodities sometimes incorporate spatial variables that proxy for a subset of these effects however meta analyses of wtp for environmental quality generally omit geospatial factors such as these leading to benefit transfers that are invariant to these factors this paper reports on a meta regression model for water quality benefit transfer that incorporates spatially explicit factors predicted by theory to influence wtp the metadata are drawn from stated preference studies that estimate per household wtp for water quality changes in united states water bodies and combine primary study information with extensive geospatial data from external sources results find that geospatial variables are associated with significant wtp variations as predicted by theory and that inclusion of these variables reduces transfer errors

sequential auctions for stochastically equivalent complementary objects abstract this paper considers equilibrium prices in sequential auctions for complementary objects when objects are stochastically equivalent expected prices may not necessarily decrease as predicted by models with identical objects

relationships between economic growth foreign direct investment and trade evidence from china this study investigates the causal links between trade economic growth and inward foreign direct investment fdi in china at the aggregate level the integration and cointegration properties of quarterly data are analysed long run relationships between growth exports imports and fdi are identified in a cointegration framework in which this paper finds bi directional causality between economic growth fdi and exports economic development exports and fdi appear to be mutually reinforcing under the open door policy

bank competition and financial stability much ado about nothing the theoretical literature gives conflicting predictions on how bank competition should affect financial stability and dozens of researchers have attempted to evaluate the relationship empirically we collect 598 estimates of the competition stability nexus reported in 31 studies and analyze the literature using meta analysis methods we control for 35 aspects of study design and employ bayesian model averaging to tackle the resulting model uncertainty our findings suggest that the definition of financial stability and bank competition used by researchers influences their results in a systematic way the choice of data estimation methodology and control variables also affects the reported coefficient we find evidence for moderate publication bias taken together the estimates reported in the literature suggest little interplay between competition and stability even when corrected for publication bias and potential misspecifications this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

jump bidding and overconcentration in decentralized simultaneous ascending auctions abstract a model of english auctions is proposed to incorporate the possibility of jump bidding when two objects are sold separately via such auctions bidders signal their willingness to pay via jump bids thereby forming rational expectations of the prices without relying on any central mediator hence a multi item bidder does not suffer the exposure problem of having to buy an item while he is uncertain about the price of its complement single item bidders however free ride one another in competing against a multi item bidder consequently the auctions overly concentrate the goods to a multi item bidder and never overly diffuse them to single item bidders

an optimal auction for complements abstract this paper considers the optimal selling mechanism for complementary items when buyers are perfectly symmetric the optimal procedure is to bundle the items and run a standard auction in general however bundling the items is not necessarily desirable and the standard auctions do not maximize revenue moreover the optimal auction allocation may not be socially efficient since the auction must discriminate against bidders who have strong incentives to misrepresent their true preferences journal of economic literature classification number d44

survey article publication bias in the literature on foreign direct investment spillovers abstract in this article we conduct a large quantitative survey of the literature on horizontal and vertical spillovers from foreign direct investment fdi we create a unique database of spillover estimates for each country examined in the literature next we estimate the average effect corrected for publication selection bias the preferential selection of positive and significant estimates for publication our results suggest that an average reported estimate of backward spillovers is statistically significant publication selection is evident only among studies published in peer reviewed journals and only among the estimates that authors consider most important authors with small data sets engage in more publication selection the intensity of selection in the literature decreases over time which supports the economics research cycle hypothesis

inflation targeting genuine effects or publication selection bias abstract this paper uses a meta regression analysis mra to evaluate the impact of publication selection bias as for the macroeconomic effects of inflation targeting it a popular approach to implementing monetary policy documented in the existing literature using 8 059 point estimates from 113 studies we show that a significant part of the documented positive effects of it on inflation and to some extent output growth volatility is in fact due to publication selection bias in particular results pointing to lower inflation volatility and higher real gdp growth tend to be favored by researchers as well as those pointing to statistically significant macroeconomic effects however even after controlling for these two types of biases we find it to be correlated with lower inflation and higher real gdp growth differently the evidence on the it inflation volatility relationship is found to be less clear

determinants of horizontal spillovers from fdi evidence from a large meta analysis summary the voluminous empirical research on horizontal productivity spillovers from foreign investors to domestic firms has yielded mixed results in this paper we collect 1 205 estimates of spillovers and examine which factors influence spillover magnitude our results suggest that horizontal spillovers are on average zero but that their sign and magnitude depend systematically on the characteristics of the domestic economy and foreign investors foreign investors who form joint ventures with domestic firms and who come from countries with a modest technology edge create the largest benefits for the domestic economy

an equilibrium analysis of the simultaneous ascending auction we provide a bayes nash equilibrium analysis of the simultaneous ascending auction saa when local bidders interested in a single item compete against global bidders interested in aggregating many items we first assume that each local bidder values only a specific item e g the license for the region where it has monopoly power and that global bidders valuation functions are convex for this environment we show that a global bidder faces an exposure problem with adverse consequences for revenue and efficiency in the limit when the number of items grows large the saa is revenue and efficiency equivalent to the vickrey clarke groves vcg mechanism we extend our analysis to include the case where items are substitutes for local bidders so that price arbitrage will occur as observed in many spectrum auctions this environment which combines substitutes and complements results in an aggravated exposure problem consequently the saa is no longer efficient and may yield dramatically lower revenues than the vcg mechanism finally we relax the assumption that global bidders valuation functions are convex by considering an environment with medium sized global bidders who demand fewer than all items we show that global bidders divide the market at low prices when market sharing is feasible while they engage in mutually destructive bidding when there is a fitting problem in both cases the saa again underperforms relative to the vcg mechanism

remittances and economic growth a meta analysis abstract expatriate workers remittances represent an important source of financing for low and middle income countries no consensus however has yet emerged regarding the effect of remittances on economic growth in a quantitative survey of 538 estimates reported in 95 studies we find that approximately 40 of the studies report a positive effect 40 report no effect and 20 report a negative effect our results indicate publication bias in favor of positive effects correcting for the bias using recently developed techniques we find that the mean effect of remittances on growth is still positive but economically small nevertheless our results uncover noticeable regional differences remittances are growth enhancing in asia but not in africa studies that do not control for alternative sources of external finance such as foreign aid and foreign direct investment mismeasure the effect of remittances finally time series studies and studies ignoring endogeneity issues report systematically larger effects of remittances on growth

market design with correlated valuations the effects of information on market design are explored in a simple setting where firms have private information about their correlated fixed costs and the government aims to maximize its expected revenue conditional on achieving efficient allocations government revenues are higher when the costs are less correlated or are more of a private value the reduced correlation increases the firms information rents but a change in the information structure also changes the expected market structures with positive effects on government revenues if the government faces the no deficit constraint there are situations where efficient allocations are achieved under asymmetric information but not under symmetric information

auctions with synergies and asymmetric buyers in this paper we consider sequential auctions with synergies where one player wants two objects and the remaining players want one object each we show that expected prices may not necessarily decrease as predicted by branco econ lett 54 1997 159 indeed we show that expected prices can actually increase c 2004 elsevier b v all rights reserved

growth by destination the role of trade in africa s recent growth episode summary over the period 1990 2009 africa has experienced a distinct and favorable reversal in its growth fortunes in stark contrast to its performance in the preceding decades leading to a variety of hypotheses seeking to explain the phenomenon this paper presents both cross country and panel data evidence on the causal factors driving the recent turnaround in africa s growth and takes the unique approach of disaggregating the separate growth impacts of africa s bilateral trade with china europe and america the empirical analysis presented in this paper suggests that the primary and most robust causal factors driving africa s recent growth turnaround are private sector and foreign direct investment although empirical evidence of the role of bilateral trade openness in africa s recent growth emerges within a fixed effect estimation setting these results are not as robust when endogeneity and other issues are fully accounted for among the three major bilateral partners africa s bilateral trade with china has been a relatively important factor spurring growth on the continent and especially so in resource rich oil producing and non landlocked countries the econometric results are not as supportive of growth inducing effects of foreign aid these findings emerge after applying a variety of panel data specifications to the data including the recent fixed effects filtered fef estimator introduced by pesaran and zhou 2014 and the dynamic panel generalized method of moments gmm estimator which allows for endogeneity between trade and growth

reporting guidelines for meta analysis in economics meta analysis has become the conventional approach to synthesizing the results of empirical economics research to further improve the transparency and replicability of the reported results and to raise the quality of meta analyses the meta analysis of economics research network has updated the reporting guidelines that were published by this journal in 2013 future meta analyses in economics will be expected to follow these updated guidelines or give valid reasons why a meta analysis should deviate from them

the approach of institutional economics this paper assesses the old institutional economics it emphasizes the importance of key old institutionalist themes concerning the necessity of habits and rules and the role of institutions a problem in the alternative theoretical program of the new institutionalism is the untenability of its assumption of an original institution free market or state of nature even optimizing behavior requires the prior existence of habits and rules although it still lacks a complete and systematic theory the evolutionary approach of the old institutionalists tackles the problem of the interactive relationship of actor to structure without analytical reduction to one or the other

three object two bidder simultaneous auctions chopsticks and tetrahedra symmetric equilibria are constructed for a class of symmetric auction games the games all have two identical bidders bidding in three simultaneous first price sealed bid auctions for identical objects information is complete and the bidders marginal valuations increase for the second object and then decrease for the third in all cases the support of the mixture that generates the equilibrium is two dimensional and it surrounds a three dimensional set of best responses this appears to be a previously unknown structure

robust nonparametric quantile estimation of efficiency and productivity change in u s commercial banking 1985 2004 this article uses a new nonparametric unconditional hyperbolic order quantile estimator to construct a hyperbolic version of the malmquist index unlike traditional nonparametric efficiency estimators the new estimator is both robust to data outliers and has a root n convergence rate we use this estimator to examine changes in the efficiency and productivity of u s banks between 1985 and 2004 we find that larger banks experienced larger efficiency and productivity gains than small banks consistent with the presumption that recent changes in regulation and information technology have favored larger banks

beyond chopsticks symmetric equilibria in majority auction games majority auction games are simultaneous sealed bid auctions of identical objects among identical bidders who each want to win a specified fraction more than a half of the objects each bidder receives no benefit from winning less than the specified fraction and no additional benefit from winning more than it symmetric equilibria having simple intuitive forms are shown to exist in first price second price and all pay versions of such games when the number of bidders is sufficiently large this contrasts with earlier results for the two bidder pure chopstick majority auction games where the only known equilibria are more complicated

publication selection and the income elasticity of the value of a statistical life abstract estimates of the value of a statistical life vsl establish the price government agencies use to value fatality risks transferring these valuations to other populations often utilizes the income elasticity of the vsl which typically draw on estimates from meta analyses using a data set consisting of 101 estimates of the income elasticity of vsl from 14 previously reported meta analyses we find that after accounting for potential publication bias the income elasticity of value of a statistical life is clearly and robustly inelastic with a value of approximately 0 25 0 63 there is also clear evidence of the importance of controlling for levels of risk differential publication selection bias and the greater income sensitivity of vsl from stated preference surveys

on some myths about sequenced common value auctions abstract equilibria are constructed for classes of game models of sequenced second price auctions having identical common valued objects in some of these the equilibrium price falls on average and in others the seller loses on average by committing to announce publicly something that he knows both of these possibilities are surprises journal of economic literature classification number d44

impact of informal institutions on the prevalence strategy and performance of family firms a meta analysis family controlled firms fcfs prevalence strategies and performance differ across countries we explain these differences through the lens of informal institutions suggesting that different countries have different levels of appreciation for family business to capture this effect we introduce the construct of family business legitimacy fbl and an associated index fbli we empirically measure fbli scores for 83 countries spanning both developed and emerging economies by combining meta analytic and archival data we show that fcfs prevail follow unique strategies and outperform non fcfs in countries with high fbli scores as a new contingency variable fbl advances the literature on the informal institutional embeddedness of organizations and family business

sequential auctions with synergies an example abstract an equilibrium in an example of a two unit sequential ascending price auction where some bidders have superadditive values is presented the equilibrium is in pure strategies in equilibrium the expected price declines from the first to the second auction

simultaneous auctions with synergies and common values abstract in this paper we study a simultaneous auction model with synergies common values and overlapping interests we construct strategies in which bidders of different types randomize over different bid intervals and provide necessary and sufficient conditions for such strategies to form symmetric equilibria questions about seller s revenue and efficiency are addressed journal of economic literature classification number d44