exchange rate changes and inflation in post crisis asian economies vector autoregression analysis of the exchange rate pass through macro economic consequences of large currency depreciations among the crisis hit asian economies varied from one country to another inflation did not soar after the asian currency crisis of 1997 98 in most crisis hit countries except indonesia where high inflation followed a very large nominal depreciation of the rupiah the high inflation meant a loss of price competitive advantage a key for economic recovery from a crisis this paper examines the pass through effects of exchange rate changes on the domestic prices in the east asian economies using a vector autoregression analysis the main results are as follows i the degree of exchange rate pass through to import prices was quite high in the crisis hit economies ii the pass through to consumer price index cpi was generally low with a notable exception of indonesia and iii in indonesia both the impulse response of monetary policy variables to exchange rate shocks and that of cpi to monetary policy shocks were positive large and statistically significant thus indonesia s accommodative monetary policy coupled with the high degree of cpi responsiveness to exchange rate changes was an important factor in the inflation depreciation spiral in the wake of the currency crisis

rural wheat consumption in china the share of wheat in china s overall grain production and consumption has increased since economic reform china is also a large wheat importer but imports are erratic in the literature there is disagreement over future prospects for per capita wheat consumption in china and imports most of the wheat is consumed in rural areas where the majority of the population resides and where consumers have shifted from coarse grains and potatoes to wheat we analyze rural wheat consumption using household data from two provinces we find there is evidence to support a contention that china s per capita wheat consumption may not grow very fast in the future and could actually fall

commodity price pass through and inflation regimes abstract does an increase in the energy and commodity prices drive consumer prices the energy and commodity markets affect the inflation process through international trade this poses policy implications for monetary policy to forecast inflation and also smooth the impact of international relative price movements we investigate the pass through of a broad range of agricultural and energy commodity prices to inflation across different inflation regimes our distinctive regime varying methodology captures asymmetric response of inflation to the world commodity prices we establish the first evidence of the pass through of commodity prices to inflation across different periods of low and high inflation regimes and also stable and unstable inflation regimes the results show that the duration of staying in an unstable inflation regime is smaller in the commodity markets both short run and long run pass through of agricultural food and energy commodities are higher compared to other commodities the energy commodity particularly drives the inflation process for advanced economies emerging economies and also the european union countries overall the dynamics of inflation and commodity prices change in the inflation environment pointing to implications for conducting optimal monetary policy

an assessment of the current structure of food demand in urban china we evaluate the current structure of food demand in urban china by using household expenditure survey data from five provinces two complementary analyses are undertaken first an aggregate analysis based on a fractional logit model is used to examine how households allocate food expenditures across the food at home fah and food away from home fafh categories this is followed by a disaggregated analysis of how households allocated their fah expenditures across 12 commodity categories a quadratic almost ideal demand system quaids is used we find evidence of significant food purchase substitution and complementarity

how to effectively stabilize china s commodity price fluctuations abstract the bulk commodities are basic goods and their price fluctuations are directly related to the stability of a country s macro economy investigating the main driving forces of the commodity price fluctuations is the key to stabilizing the macro economy ignoring the objective facts that there are a large number of nonlinear relationships between economic variables most of the existing scholars use the linear models to commodity price fluctuations to compensate for the shortcomings of existing research this paper uses the nonparametric additive regression model with data driven features to investigate the main driving forces of china s commodity price fluctuations the results show that exchange rate has an early promotion late inhibition inverse u shaped nonlinear effect on commodity price fluctuations because the renminbi appreciates in the early stages but depreciates in the later stages the nonlinear impact of the real economy also appears an inverted u shaped pattern due to the changes in growth mode of the real economy similarly international oil price produces an inverted u shaped nonlinear effect owing to the rise in international oil prices in the early stages and the decline in the later stages however the money supply has an early inhibition late promotion positive u shaped nonlinear effect on commodity prices therefore government departments should formulate targeted policies over time to effectively stabilize china s commodity prices

land ownership and conflicts over the use of resources implication for household vulnerability in eastern ethiopia abstract survey data from hirna watershed in eastern ethiopia were used to identify determinants of household choice among alternative land property right regimes to help mitigate negative consequences of scarcity induced land related conflicts and so as to help reduce household vulnerability it has been observed that absence of clearly defined property right and management plan has led to overexploitation of the hillsides leading to perpetuation of poverty and food insecurity multinomial discrete choice models were specified and estimated for explaining decision of household heads for most preferred property right regimes overall two variables namely the dependency ratio and the level of education of the household head provided the most predictive power whether or not the household prefers common property resource regime whereas the number of household members the livestock holding of the household and the area of cultivated land lost due to enclosure of part of the watershed were found to be more relevant in determining household s preference for resettlement to other potential areas on the other hand the age of household head the number of household members and the level of education of the household head were found to be statistically significant in determining the likelihood that a household prefers intensifying agriculture

low inflation pass through and the pricing power of firms abstract recently there has been a significant decline in the degree to which firms pass through changes in costs to prices a decline that is frequently characterized as a reduction in the pricing power of firms the decline appears to be associated with the decline in inflation in many countries the decline has important implications for monetary policy because it affects both forecasts of inflation and the effects of changes in monetary policy on inflation some have argued that the decline in pricing power helped to keep inflation low in the face of apparently strong demand pressures in the united states in the late 1990s this paper puts forth the view that the decline in pass through or pricing power is due to the low inflation environment that has recently been achieved in many countries first a microeconomic model of price setting is used to show that lower pass through is caused by lower perceived persistence of cost changes evidence is then presented showing that inflation is positively correlated with persistence of inflation suggesting that the low inflation itself has caused the low pass through an economy wide model consistent with the micromodel is then presented to illustrate how such changes in pricing power affect output and inflation dynamics in favorable ways but can disappear quickly if monetary policy and expectations change

a demand systems analysis of food commodities by u s households segmented by income using the 1987 88 nationwide food consumption survey twelve food commodity groups were analyzed according to household poverty status parameter estimates were used to obtain subsistence expenditures own price elasticities expenditure elasticities and income elasticities own price elasticities were similar between the income groups for most commodities however income elasticities were consistently higher for the lower income group the use of average estimates of price and income elasticities for the population as a whole for the projection of individual commodity demands is not likely to be successful if notable changes are evident in income distribution

demand for beef and chicken products separability and structural change several studies have indicated that the recent shift from beef to poultry in consumption is not entirely caused by changes in rela tive prices or income braschler chavas dahlgran hudson and vertin moschini and meilke frank thurman most studies of structural change have focused on red meat consumption only thurman has looked closely at the poultry market and no one has considered poultry products yet the mix of chicken products marketed changed dramat ically during the last twenty years and should have influenced aggregate meat demand the share of broiler slaughter marketed as whole birds declined from 74 in 1965 to 28 in 1985 while cut up parts and processed chick en products increased from 26 to 72 whole birds are inferior goods and cut up parts and processed chicken are normal goods haidacher et al the shift in chicken prod uct mix away from whole birds should have increased the preference for total chicken in this article two related questions are ad dressed first do consumers allocate expendi tures among meats by animal origin or by product type second does disaggregation of meat into products in a meat demand model give insight into the causes of structural

quantifying the structure of food demand in china an econometric approach this article examines food demand structure and its dynamics for 11 commodities in urban china the analysis is based on household level expenditure survey data for two cross sectional surveys of chinese households pertaining to food expenditure patterns during 1995 and 2003 pre committed components of commodity demands that are insensitive to economic variables are explored we use the generalized quadratic almost ideal demand system gqaids for its empirical superiority to the generalized almost ideal demand system gaids and estimate the associated parameters via full information maximum likelihood procedure fiml accounting for endogeneity of total expenditures on food for home consumption fah we also use quality adjusted commodity unit values to control for quality differences resulting from commodity aggregation and food choice furthermore we derive gqaids elasticity formulas and estimate income elasticities without restrictions the results partially support the hypothesis that an average chinese household has incorporated elements of western diet fine grains into traditional chinese food diet over time moreover the outcome of a simple test developed here points to possible preference changes for a majority of food staples under study

how can african agriculture adapt to climate change a counterfactual analysis from ethiopia we analyze the impact of different adaptation strategies on crop net revenues in the nile basin of ethiopia we estimate a multinomial endogenous switching regression model of climate change adaptation and crop net revenues and implement a counterfactual analysis households data are combined with spatial climate data we find that adaptation to climate change based upon a portfolio of strategies significantly increases farm net revenues changing crop varieties has a positive and significant impact on net revenues when coupled with water conservation strategies or soil conservation strategies but not when implemented in isolation jel q54 q56

long run commodity prices economic growth and interest rates 17th century to the present day a significant proportion of the trade basket of many developing countries is comprised of primary commodities this implies relative price movements in commodities may have important consequences for economic growth and poverty reduction taking a long run perspective we examine the historical relation between a new aggregate index of commodity prices economic activity and interest rates initial empirical tests show that commodity prices present a downward trend with breaks over the entire industrial age providing clear support for the prebisch singer hypothesis it would also appear that this trend has declined at a faster rate since the 1870s conversely several gdp series such as world chile china uk and us trend upwards with breaks such trending behaviour in both commodity prices and economic activity suggests a latent common factor like technological innovation to assess the relationships between economic series we apply a stationary var vector autoregression to model movements around trends strikingly there is evidence that commodity prices granger cause income and interest rates whilst interest rates granger cause commodity prices from these results and the related impulse response function analysis the historical perspective provides some useful information for contemporary policy makers for example loose monetary policy has tended to support higher commodity prices more over commodity price movements have an asymmetric country effect on economic activity periods of falling commodity prices will support gdp growth for com modity importers like the us but depress growth for commodity exporters such as chile

the pass through effects of oil price shocks on china s inflation a time varying analysis abstract using a time varying parameter structural vector autoregression with stochastic volatility tvp svar sv model we decompose the structural shocks of oil price fluctuations into four types oil supply shocks global demand shocks domestic demand shocks and oil specific demand shocks we then analyze the time varying effects of these oil price shocks on china s inflation at the import production and consumption stages using monthly data from january 1999 to december 2016 the results show that the pass through effects of the four types of oil price shocks on china s inflation at each stage are time varying and that there are significant differences at different time horizons and points in time the analysis of the variance decomposition shows that the effects of oil price shocks on china s inflation at each stage are incomplete and decrease along the price chain the increase in oil prices driven by oil specific demand shocks is the most important cause of china s inflation at the import and production stages during the full sample period while china s inflation at the consumption stage is mainly affected by domestic demand shocks in addition the inflationary effects of oil price shocks have been dramatically weaker since the international financial crisis compared with before the crisis

inflation responses to commodity price shocks how and why do countries differ this paper relates the inflationary impact of commodity price shocks across countries to a broad range of structural characteristics and policy frameworks over the period 2001 2010 using several approaches the analysis suggests that economies with higher food shares in cpi baskets fuel intensities and pre existing inflation levels were more prone to experience sustained inflationary effects from commodity price shocks countries with more independent central banks and higher governance scores seem to have contained the impact of these shocks better the effect of the presence of inflation targeting regimes however appears modest and not evident during the 2008 food price shock the evidence suggests that trade openness financial development dollarization and labor market flexibility do not significantly influence the way in which domestic inflation responds to international commodity price shocks

exchange rate pass through to import prices and monetary policy in south africa abstractunderstanding how import prices adjust to exchange rates helps anticipate inflation effects and monetary policy responses this article examines exchange rate pass through to the monthly import price index in south africa during 1980 2009 short horizon pass through estimates are calculated using both single equation equilibrium correction models and systems johansen models controlling for both domestic and foreign costs average pass through is incomplete at about 50 per cent within a year and 30 per cent in six months and in the long run from the johansen analysis including feedback effects is about 55 per cent there is evidence of slower pass through under inflation targeting pass through is found to decline with recent exchange rate volatility and there is evidence for asymmetry with greater pass through occurring for small appreciations

investment in soil conservation in northern ethiopia the role of land tenure security and public programs abstract a double hurdle statistical analysis of 250 farms in the tigray region of ethiopia reveals different causal factors for soil conservation adoption versus intensity of use farmers reasons for adopting soil conservation measures vary sharply between stone terraces and soil bunds long term investments in stone terraces were associated with secure land tenure labour availability proximity to the farmstead and learning opportunities via the existence of local food for work ffw projects by contrast short term investments in soil bunds were strongly linked to insecure land tenure and the absence of local food for work projects public conservation campaigns on private plots reduced adoption of both stone terraces and soil bunds whereas capacity factors largely influenced the adoption decision expected returns carried more influence for the intensity of stone terrace adoption measured as metres of terrace per hectare more stone terracing was built where fertile but erodible silty soils in higher rainfall areas offered valuable yield benefits intensity of terracing was also greater in remote villages where limited off farm employment opportunities reduced construction costs these results highlight the importance of the right kind of public interventions direct public involvement in constructing soil conservation structures on private lands appears to undermine incentives for private conservation investments when done on public lands however public conservation activities may encourage private soil conservation by example secure land tenure rights clearly reinforce private incentives to make long term investments in soil conservation

exchange rate pass through in emerging countries do the inflation environment monetary policy regime and central bank behavior matter abstract in this paper we estimate the exchange rate pass through erpt to import and consumer prices for a sample of 14 emerging countries over the 1994q1 2015q3 period to this end we augment the traditional bivariate relationship between the nominal effective exchange rate and inflation by accounting for monetary stability proxied by the inflation environment monetary policy regime and central bank behavior we show that both the level and volatility of inflation as well as adopting an inflation target or the transparency of monetary policy decisions clearly reduce erpt to consumer prices however uncertainty about domestic monetary policy seems less relevant in explaining the pass through to the price of imports

testing participation constraints in contract design for sustainable soil conservation in ethiopia abstract this paper focuses on contract design to improve the incentive structure of current coordination mechanisms related to sustainable land use management in the ethiopian highlands the main objective is to assess whether and if so under which terms and conditions rural households are willing to enter into contractual agreements to invest in soil conservation measures on their land participation constraints are tested under different soil erosion and institutional economic conditions in a choice experiment targeting 750 rural households we show that contracts provided by local government peasant associations offering additional credit land use security and extension services could be an effective means to increase the share of farmers implementing soil conservation measures however trust in contract terms and conditions appears to play an important role farmers living in the most erosion prone areas are most likely to participate while farmers taking soil conservation measures already are less likely to enter into a contractual agreement with the local government farmers not taking soil conservation measures will only do so if the contract price is lower than or equal to the income losses suffered from soil erosion

property rights regimes and natural resources a conceptual analysis the term common property resource is an example of a term repeatedly used to refer to property owned by a government or by no one it is also used for property owned by a community of resource users such usage leads to confusion in scientific study and policy analysis in this paper we develop a conceptual schema for arraying property rights regimes that distinguishes among diverse bundles of rights ranging from authorized user to claimant to proprietor and to owner we apply this conceptual schema to analyze findings from a variety of empirical settings including the maine lobster industry

diagram for a small planet the production and ecosystem possibilities curve abstract with the development of the gpi there is now an ecological alternative to gdp for measuring a country s economic performance but we still lack an ecological alternative to the ppc for illustrating a country s economic problem the diagram suggested here illustrates a country s production and ecosystem possibilities including climate stability flood control carbon sequestration aquifer recharge scenery recreation biological diversity and so on burning a rainforest to clear the land shifts a country s ppc outward giving the visual impression of an unmitigated improvement but such development causes a movement along the country s pepc as ecosystem services are transformed into gdp the slope of the pepc is the marginal rate of transformation which equals the ratio of the land s marginal marketable product to its marginal ecosystem product changes in technology create substitution and income effects that help explain the enclosure movement and the environmental kuznets curve much as employment of the human resource can be restrained to allow more leisure development of the natural resource can be restrained to preserve more ecosystem services commercial lobbying interests and rivalries for positional goods create distortions that move a country along its pepc to a materialistic misallocation with too little conservation an idealistic misallocation is also possible with too much preservation of the natural environment small is beautiful up to a point and that is evident in this diagram jacob viner s viner j 1937 studies in the theory of international trade harper and brothers new york analytical objections to the ppc are revived

price adjustment and exchange rate pass through abstract this paper develops a simple theoretical model that can be used to account for the determinants of exchange rate pass through to consumer prices while recent evidence has found low estimates of pass through in many countries there is little consensus on an explanation for this our paper argues that sticky prices represent a key determinant of exchange rate pass through we make this argument in two stages first holding the frequency of price change constant we show that our model calibrated to data from low inflation countries can reproduce the estimates of very low pass through for these countries the principal determinant of low pass through in this case is the slow adjustment of prices we then extend the model to allow the frequency of price change to be endogenous calibrating to a wider set of countries including both low inflation and high inflation countries we show that our model implies that exchange rate pass through is increasing in average inflation but at a declining rate performing the identical exercise on the data we find a striking correspondence between the predictions of the model and those of the data

inflation target and a symmetries in the oil price pass through to inflation in this paper we employ state space models to estimate the pass through of oil price changes to consumer prices for a large sample of countries from 1970 to 2017 by controlling for self selection bias and endogeneity and allowing for different responses to positive and negative price changes we asses the differences between explicit inflation targeting it countries and a control group surprisingly perhaps our results suggest that the pass through is higher for it countries our main contribution is to show that these is mainly due to it countries having a significant higher pass through than non it countries when the oil price decreases a 10 drop in oil price leads about a 0 11 drop in inflation in iters of which 4pp are explained by the monetary regime importantly we show that adopting it reduces the asymmetry of the pass through we run several robustness checks and conclude that falling oil prices are more welcomed by the central banks with an it framework in particular during deflationary episodes or when inflation is above the target jel classification e31 e42 q43

local food prices and international price transmission world food prices spiked in the periods 2007 8 and 2010 11 the impact of these spikes in world food prices on local food prices and thus on local consumers is determined by the food price pass through pass through is defined as the extent to which changes in world food prices lead to changes in local food prices we examine the determinants of variation in food price pass through from global to local consumer prices in a global sample of 147 countries using fao data on world food prices and ilo data on food prices for consumers while market integration matters our study finds that income per capita is the dominant factor explaining cross country variation in pass through of food prices we estimate an elasticity of about 0 3 of pass through with respect to income per capita this means far greater price transmission of food price shocks at the commodity level to final consumers in low income countries than in high income countries the implication is that future swings in world food prices will in particular jeopardize food security in poor countries trade policy measures of market integration also affect the pass through significantly whereas infrastructure and geography measures play no significant role

incorporating demand shifters in the almost ideal demand system abstract intercepts of share equations generally include demand shift variables in the almost ideal demand system and related models this results in estimates that depend on units of measurement solutions to this problem are identified and discussed

evaluating price transmission between global agricultural markets and consumer food price indices in the european union this paper uses error correction models to evaluate the extent to and speed at which world agricultural commodity price movements affect consumer food prices in the european union member states we consider three types of world commodity price indices each containing different commodities and weighting criteria results reveal a long run relationship between world agricultural commodity and consumer food prices in over half of the member states consumer prices in different member states and categories of member states respond differently to specific world price indices suggesting that there are disparities in the structure and the efficiency of their food markets the eurozone founders generally have lower transmission elasticities this should be taken into account when predicting the impacts of extreme world price volatility and consumer food price rises prompting governments to pay attention to the most vulnerable households

weak separability in applied welfare analysis the focus of this paper is the impact on welfare measurement of a common assumption in applied demand analysis weak separability a standard empirical practice is to estimate conditional demand models for a set of goods which are assumed to be weakly separable from all other goods with expenditure as a right hand side variable tacitly assuming that expenditure is predetermined alston and chalfant 1987 1991 alston carter green and pick blackorby boyce and russell blisard and blaylock brown and heien cashin choi and sosin clements and e selvanathan clements and s selvana than deaton 1975 goddard and amuah gould cox and perali 1990 1991 heien heien and pompelli 1988 1989 murray safyurtlu john son and hassan theil 1976 1980 van ko oten yen and chern once estimated such separable demand models often are used to cal culate exact welfare measures or changes in the true cost of living index of the economic effects on consumers due to changes in the prices of the goods under study heien heien and pom pelli 1989 van kooten blisard and blaylock this practice is shown here to produce biased results there are two sources of the bias and both can be traced to the inappropriate treatment of expenditure as predetermined in an empiri cal application to the u s dairy program a comparison of estimates from an incomplete demand system specification versus a weakly separable specification suggests a negative bias of around 17 of the compensating variation due to eliminating price discrimination in federal milk marketing orders in 1990 results from a monte carlo simulation suggest that the downward bias is closer to 40 i first present the analysis of weak separability then the empirical application and a summary and conclusions this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

inflation dynamics and food prices in ethiopia during the global food crisis ethiopia experienced an unprecedented increase in inflation among the highest in africa using monthly data over the past decade we estimate models of inflation to identify the importance of the factors contributing to cpi inflation and three of its major components cereal prices food prices and non food prices our main finding is that movements in international food and goods prices measured in domestic currency determined the long run evolution of domestic prices in the short run agricultural supply shocks affected food inflation causing large deviations from long run price trends monetary policy seems to have accommodated price shocks but money supply growth affected short run non food price inflation our results suggest that when analyzing inflation in developing economies with a large food share in consumer prices world food prices and domestic agricultural production should be considered omitting these factors can lead to biased results and misguided policy decisions

the taylor rule and opportunistic monetary policy we investigate the possibility that the taylor rule should be formulated as a threshold process such that the federal reserve acts more aggressively in some circumstances than in others it seems reasonable that the federal reserve would act more aggressively when inflation is high than when it is low similarly it might be expected that the federal reserve responds more to a negative than a positive output gap although these specifications receive some empirical support we find that a modified threshold model that is consistent with opportunistic monetary policy makes significant progress toward explaining federal reserve behavior