ultimate recovery mixtures abstract we propose a relatively simple accurate and flexible approach to forecasting the distribution of defaulted debt recovery outcomes our approach is based on mixtures of gaussian distributions explicitly conditioned on borrower characteristics debt instrument characteristics and credit conditions at the time of default using moody s ultimate recovery database we show that our mixture specification yields more accurate forecasts of ultimate recoveries on portfolios of defaulted loans and bonds on an out of sample basis than popular regression based estimates further the economically interpretable outputs of our model provide a richer characterization of how conditioning variables affect recovery outcomes than competing approaches the latter benefit is of particular importance in understanding shifts in the relative likelihood of extreme recovery outcomes that tend to be realized more frequently than observations near the distributional mean

credit risk drivers evaluating the contribution of firm level information and of macroeconomic dynamics abstract understanding if credit risk is driven mostly by idiosyncratic firm characteristics or by systematic factors is an important issue for the assessment of financial stability by exploring the links between credit risk and macroeconomic developments we observe that in periods of economic growth there may be some tendency towards excessive risk taking using an extensive dataset with detailed information for more than 30 000 firms we show that default probabilities are influenced by several firm specific characteristics when time effect controls or macroeconomic variables are also taken into account the results improve substantially hence though the firms financial situation has a central role in explaining default probabilities macroeconomic conditions are also very important when assessing default probabilities over time

why the middle is unstable the political economy of exchange rate regimes and currency crises the contribution of sticky exchange rates to the rash of currency crises over the past decade has become a major topic of international monetary analysis and policy discussion while there is widespread agreement among economists that the middle of the exchange rate spectrum adjustable pegs is highly crisis prone in a world of substantial capital mobility jeffrey frankel has recently argued that surprisingly we lack a clear theoretical rationale for why this is so this paper attempts to fill that void it argues that frankel is correct in terms of economic analysis alone but that when political economy considerations are introduced then a satisfactory explanation is at hand key aspects of this political economy perspective are laid out and implications for exchange rate policy are considered the analysis suggests that for promoting currency stability the traditionally debated distinctions between crawling bands and managed floats are likely less important than the political environments in which they are operated

snobbery racism or mutual distaste what promotes and hinders cooperation in local public good provision a political jurisdiction may decide to cooperate in public schooling provision with its neighbors or remain independent the determinants of the consolidation decision are compared for the richer and the poorer and for the whiter and the less white jurisdiction in each potential consolidation pair property values and scale economies matter most however poorer jurisdictions prefer merging with richer ones that are less white than themselves whiter jurisdictions prefer to consolidate with less white ones of similar income less white jurisdictions are more open to consolidation with whiter ones if their incomes differ in either direction traditional club theory predictions are not supported

capital requirements under the credit risk based framework abstract this work aims to study the hypothesis of lower capitalization of banks under the risk based rules introduced in basel ii in this sense an assessment of the impact of these rules on the capital requirements for non financial firms credit risk is performed a comparison with basel i is presented and intervals of variation for the risk drivers such that capital requirements exceed the ones under basel i are established data for a european country supports the hypothesis of a smaller capitalization of banks under the risk based framework as far as credit risk in concerned

resistance to reform status quo bias in the presence of individual specific uncertainty comment why do governments so often fail to adopt policies which economists consider to be efficiency enhancing our answer to this question relies on uncertainty regarding the distribution of gains and losses from reform we show that there is a bias towards the status quo and hence against efficiency enhancing reforms whenever some of the individual gainers and losers from reform cannot be identified beforehand there are reforms which once adopted will receive adequate political support but would have failed to carry the day ex ante the argument does not rely on risk aversion irrationality or hysteresis due to sunk costs jel d72 f13 why do governments so often fail to adopt policies that economists consider to be efficiency enhancing this is one of the fundamental questions of political economy the answer usually relies on what may be

financial interdependence and the state international monetary relations at century s end as the twentieth century draws to a close one can find sharply contrasting views among leading scholars on almost every key issue in positive international political economy how strong are international as opposed to domestic influences on policy how important are issues of national security high politics versus economic considerations low politics what role do institutions international and domestic play in influencing and constraining the behavior of governments why is international cooperation rare but not unheard of the list goes on and on

forecasting bank loans loss given default abstract with the advent of the new basel capital accord banking organizations are invited to estimate credit risk capital requirements using an internal ratings based approach in order to be compliant with this approach institutions must estimate the loss given default the fraction of the credit exposure that is lost if the borrower defaults this study evaluates the ability of a parametric fractional response regression and a nonparametric regression tree model to forecast bank loan credit losses the out of sample predictive ability of these models is evaluated at several recovery horizons after the default event the out of time predictive ability is also estimated for a recovery horizon of 1 year the performance of the models is benchmarked against recovery estimates given by historical averages the results suggest that regression trees are an interesting alternative to parametric models in modeling and forecasting loss given default

support vector regression for loss given default modelling abstract loss given default modelling has become crucially important for banks due to the requirement that they comply with the basel accords and to their internal computations of economic capital in this paper support vector regression svr techniques are applied to predict loss given default of corporate bonds where improvements are proposed to increase prediction accuracy by modifying the svr algorithm to account for heterogeneity of bond seniorities we compare the predictions from svr techniques with thirteen other algorithms our paper has three important results first at an aggregated level the proposed improved versions of support vector regression techniques outperform other methods significantly second at a segmented level by bond seniority least square support vector regression demonstrates significantly better predictive abilities compared with the other statistical models third standard transformations of loss given default do not improve prediction accuracy overall our empirical results show that support vector regression techniques are a promising technique for banks to use to predict loss given default

joint effect of financial fragility and macroeconomic shocks on bank loan losses evidence from europe abstract a reduced form model including nonlinearities is estimated from pooled data from nine european countries during 1982 2004 to show the effects of macroeconomic shocks and financial fragility on bank loan losses the main ingredients of the model are unanticipated output and interest rate shocks estimated from published macroeconomic and naive forecasts the model fits the data well capturing the extremely high levels of loan losses witnessed in different financial crises

forecasting business and consumer surveys indicators a time series models competition the objective of this article is to compare different time series methods for the short run forecasting of business and consumer survey indicators we consider all available data taken from the business and consumer survey indicators for the euro area between 1985 and 2002 the main results of the forecast competition are offered not only for raw data but we also consider the effects of seasonality and removing outliers on forecast accuracy in most cases the univariate autoregressions were not outperformed by the other methods as for the effect of seasonal adjustment methods and the use of data from which outliers have been removed we obtain that the use of raw data has little effect on forecast accuracy the forecasting performance of qualitative indicators is important since enlarging the observed time series of these indicators with forecast intervals may help in interpreting and assessing the implications of the current situation and can be used as an input in quantitative forecast models

testing for market timing ability abstract in this paper we examine the henriksson merton test of market timing and its potential usefulness in evaluating investment advice the paper proposes a natural extension of the test that is valid under more general assumptions about the distribution of asset returns we show that the henriksson merton test and its more general counterpart are special cases of standard tests of market rationality and efficiency both tests are applied to a group of foreign exchange advisory services

loss functions for loss given default model comparison abstract we propose a new approach for comparing loss given default lgd models which is based on loss functions defined in terms of regulatory capital charge our comparison method improves the banks ability to absorb their unexpected credit losses by penalizing more heavily lgd forecast errors made on credits associated with high exposure and long maturity we also introduce asymmetric loss functions that only penalize the lgd forecast errors that lead to underestimate the regulatory capital we show theoretically that our approach ranks models differently compared to the traditional approach which only focuses on lgd forecast errors we apply our methodology to six competing lgd models using a sample of almost 10 000 defaulted credit and leasing contracts provided by an international bank our empirical findings clearly show that models rankings based on capital charge losses differ from those based on the lgd loss functions currently used by regulators banks and academics

when arm s length is too far relationship banking over the credit cycle we conduct face to face interviews with bank ceos to classify 397 banks across 21 countries as either relationship or transaction lenders we then use the geographic coordinates of these banks branches and of 14 100 businesses to analyze how the lending techniques of banks in the vicinity of firms are related to credit constraints at two contrasting points of the credit cycle we find that while relationship lending is not associated with credit constraints during a credit boom it alleviates such constraints during a downturn this positive role of relationship lending is stronger for small and opaque firms and in regions with a more severe economic downturn moreover our evidence suggests thatrelationship lending mitigates the impact of a downturn on firm growth and does not constitute evergreening of loans

the determinants of bank loan recovery rates in good times and bad new evidence abstract we find that factors explaining bank loan recovery rates differ depending on the state of an underlying credit cycle our modelling approach incorporates a two state markov switching mechanism to capture underlying economic conditions this latent credit cycle variable helps to explain differences in observed recovery rates over time using us bank default loan data from moody s ultimate recovery database and covering the pre and post global financial crisis gfc period the paper develops and implements a dynamic model for bank loan recovery rates we accommodate the distinctive empirical features of the recovery rate data while incorporating a large number of possible determinants we find that certain loan specific and other variables hold different explanatory power with respect to recovery rates in good versus bad times in the credit cycle i e depending on underlying credit market conditions our findings demonstrate the importance of accounting for counter cyclical expected recovery rates when determining capital retention levels

systematic effects among loss given defaults and their implications on downturn estimation abstract banks are obliged to provide downturn estimates for loss given defaults lgds in the internal ratings based approach while downturn conditions are characterized by systematically higher lgds it is unclear which factors may best capture these conditions as lgds depend on recovery payments which are collected during varying economic conditions in the resolution process it is challenging to identify suitable economic variables using a bayesian finite mixture model we adapt random effects to measure economic conditions and to generate downturn estimates we find that systematic effects vary among regions i e the us and europe and strongly deviate from the economic cycle our approach offers straightforward supportive tools for decision makers risk managers are enabled to select their individual margin of conservatism based on their portfolios while regulators might set a lower bound to guarantee conservatism in comparison to other approaches our proposal appears to be conservative enough during downturn conditions and inhibits over conservatism

pitfalls in market timing test abstract henriksson and merton s market timing test suffers nontrivial size distortion when the observations are serially dependent sequences potential danger of finding spurious timing ability can be avoided by implementing a markov regression that includes the lagged dependent variables as additional explanatory variables

transaction costs information technologies and the choice of marketplace among farmers in northern ghana using a transactions costs framework we examine the impact of information and communication technologies mobile phones and radios use on market participation in developing country agricultural markets using a novel transaction level data set of ghanaian farmers our analysis of the choice of markets by farmers suggests that market information from a broader range of markets may not always induce farmers to sell in more distant markets instead farmers may use broader market information to enhance their bargaining power in closer markets finally we find weak evidence on the impact of using mobile phones in attracting farm gate buyers

the delivery option in credit default swaps abstract under standard assumptions the reduced form credit risk model is not capable of accurately pricing the two fundamental credit risk instruments bonds and credit default swaps cds simultaneously using a data set of euro denominated corporate bonds and cds our paper quantifies this mispricing by calibrating such a model to bond data and subsequently using it to price cds resulting in model cds spreads up to 50 lower on average than observed in the market an extended model is presented which includes the delivery option implicit in cds contracts emerging since a basket of bonds is deliverable in default by using a constant recovery rate standard models assume equal recoveries for all bonds and hence zero value for the delivery option contradicting this common assumption case studies of chapter 11 filings presented in the paper show that corporate bonds do not necessarily trade at equal levels following default our extension models the implied expected recovery rate of the cheapest to deliver bond and applied to data largely eliminates the mispricing calibrated recovery values lie between 8 and 47 for different obligors exhibiting strong variation among rating classes and industries a cross sectional analysis reveals that the implied recovery parameter depends on proxies for the delivery option primarily the number of available bonds and bond pricing errors no evidence is found for a direct influence of the bid ask spread notional amount coupon or rating used as proxies for bond market liquidity

exchange rate regimes for emerging markets moral hazard and international overborrowing this paper investigates the role of the exchange rate regime in a simple fisherian model of the overborrowing syndrome where domestic banks are subject to moral hazard the choice of exchange rate regime may have important implications for the macroeconomic stability of the economy banks that enjoy government guarantees have an incentive to increase foreign borrowing and incur foreign exchange risks that are underwritten by the deposit insurance system in the absence of capital controls this increases the magnitude of overborrowing and leaves the economy both more vulnerable to speculative attack and more exposed to the real economic consequences of such an attack while bad exchange rate pegs will tend to exacerbate the problem of overborrowing in emerging markets it is unclear that flexible exchange rate always dominate fixed exchange rates a good fix one that is credible and close to purchasing power parity may reduce the super risk premium in domestic interest rates and thereby narrow the margin of temptation for banks to overborrow internationally contrary to the current consensus regarding the lessons that should be drawn from the asian crisis a good fix may better stabilise the domestic economy while limiting moral hazard in the banking system

price discovery and trade fragmentation in a multi market environment evidence from the mts system this paper proposes new metrics for the process of price discovery on the main electronic trading platform for euro denominated government securities analysing price data on daily transactions for 107 bonds over a period of twenty seven months we find a greater degree of price leadership of the dominant market when our measures as opposed to the traditional price discovery metrics are used we also present unambiguous evidence that a market s contribution to price discovery is crucially affected by the level of trading activity the implications of these empirical findings are discussed in the light of the debate about the possible restructuring of the regulatory framework for the treasury bond market in europe

conditional qualitative forecasting qualitative models characterized by a categorical or discrete endogenous variable have become more prominent in the economics literature during the past decade amemiya provides many examples of economic topics requiring qualitative analysis categorical variables also play an important role in agricultural economics one example is the recent interest in the forecasting of turning points naik and leuthold kaylen harris and leuthold brandt and bessler with the possible categories given by trough peak and no turn technical trading systems proliferate in the futures markets they may be viewed as sending buy sell or neutral signals lukac brorsen and irwin siebert recently used a logistic regression model to predict the bankruptcy or survival of grain elevators the university of missouri columbia provides a live

productivity and welfare effects of nigeria s e voucher based input subsidy program summary in an attempt to go beyond the so called smart subsidies nigeria has embarked on a potentially innovative mobile phone based input subsidy program that provides fertilizer and improved seed subsidies through electronic vouchers in this article we examined the productivity and welfare effects of the program using household level data from rural nigeria the article employed instrumental variable regression approach to control for the potential endogeneity of the input subsidy program our results suggest that the program is effective in improving productivity and welfare outcomes of beneficiary smallholders the size of the estimated effects suggests a large improvement in productivity and welfare outcomes moreover the distributional effects of the program suggest no heterogeneity effects based on gender and farm land size these results are robust to using alternative measurements of program participation the benefit cost ratio of 1 11 suggests that the program is marginally cost effective overall our results suggest that while improving average productivity is a good outcome for improving food security improving the distributional outcome of the program by targeting the most disadvantaged groups would maximize the program s contribution to food security and poverty reduction

a computational approach to pricing a bank credit line abstract using trended brownian motion to characterize borrower cash needs over time we are able to derive a probability density function for the time to depletion of a bank credit line as well as the likelihoods for the time to exhausting the sources of liquidity that fund the loan armed with these analytic results we solve for the credit line mark up rate and the configuration of stored liquidity that maximizes the bank s intertemporal expected profits from the loan the optimality conditions produce a system of integral differential equations whose solutions we then simulate over a host of scenarios

correlated default and financial intermediation financial intermediation naturally arises when knowledge about the aggregate state is valuable for managing investments and lenders cannot easily observe the aggregate state i show this using a costly enforcement model in which lenders need ex post incentives to enforce payments from defaulted loans and borrowers payoffs are correlated when projects have correlated outcomes learning the state of one project via enforcement provides information about the states of other projects a large correlated portfolio provides ex post incentives for enforcement as a result intermediation dominates direct lending intermediaries are financed with risk free deposits earn positive profits and hold systemic default risk

recovery rates default probabilities and the credit cycle in recessions the number of defaulting firms rises on top of this the average amount recovered on the bonds of defaulting firms tends to decrease this paper proposes an econometric model in which this joint time variation in default rates and recovery rate distributions is driven by an unobserved markov chain which we interpret as the credit cycle this model is shown to fit better than models in which this joint time variation is driven by observed macroeconomic variables we use the model to quantitatively assess the importance of allowing for systematic time variation in recovery rates which is often ignored in risk management and pricing models

cointegration and stock prices the random walk on wall street revisited abstract one of the more famous and empirically regular instances of unit roots occurs in stock price series where they are consistent with rational expectations and efficient markets under certain assumptions in this paper we investigate the dynamic behavior of five stock prices over the volatile period from january 1972 through december 1979 finding that the series are cointegrated with one dominant common trend a component with an estimated root of 0 95 in addition we find a lesser trend and two complex roots in the cycle model these findings are validated by out of sample forecasts beginning in january 1980 in addition to mean squared error criteria the forecasts are evaluated nonparametrically in two separate applications of a test due to henriksson and merton

qualitative forecast evaluation a comparison of two performance measures agricultural producers and marketers often have access to several sets of forecasts on the same series decision makers must be able to evaluate the relative accuracy of the forecasts the ability to evaluate whether a series will move up or down is important for series related to futures options other asset prices and situations where processes can be modified according to changing economic conditions a measure of qualitative forecast accuracy from naik and leuthold is compared to a probability based measure developed by henriksson and merton the henriksson merton measure is shown to provide additional and more accurate information concerning a model s qualitative forecasting ability

loss given default for leasing parametric and nonparametric estimations abstract this study employs a dataset from three german leasing companies with 14 322 defaulted leasing contracts to analyze different approaches to estimating the loss given default lgd using the historical average lgd and simple ols regression as benchmarks we compare hybrid finite mixture models fmms model trees and regression trees and we calculate the mean absolute error root mean squared error and the theil inequality coefficient the relative estimation accuracy of the methods depends among other things on the number of observations and whether in sample or out of sample estimations are considered the latter is decisive for proper risk management and is required for regulatory purposes fmms aim to reproduce the distribution of realized lgds and therefore perform best with respect to in sample estimations but they show poor performance with respect to out of sample estimations model trees by contrast are more robust and outperform all other methods if the sample size is sufficiently large

effects of debt collection practices on loss given default abstract in this article we propose an lgd model that is solely based on legal and internal debt collection actions our model is supported by empirical tests in which it performs better than a usual firm specific model this result is noteworthy when we recall that the model has only binary variables that indicate whether an action was taken our model can be applied to update the lgd of distressed firms in a timely manner reflecting the actions taken during the debt collection period it also can be used to assess the effect of a recovery action and to determine whether to apply an action to certain types of debt