crime and ethics abstract we consider a simple model in which agents are endowed with heterogeneous abilities and differing degrees of honesty agents choose either to commit property crimes or invest in education and become workers instead the model is closed in that all criminal proceeds are stolen from agents working in the formal sector and that expenditures on both deterrence and punishment of criminals are paid for through taxes levied on workers thus although we assume that there are no direct interactive effects among criminals criminals crowd each other in two ways positively in that enforcement and punishment resources become more widely diffused as more agents commit crimes and negatively in that the presence of more criminals implies that there is less loot to be divided over a larger number of thieves we establish the possibility of multiple equilibria and characterize the equilibrium properties we then evaluate the effectiveness of deterrence policies under a balanced government budget

the returns to criminal capital human capital theory posits that individuals increase their labor market returns through investments in education and training this concept has been studied extensively across several disciplines an analog concept of criminal capital the focus of some speculation and limited empirical study remains considerably less developed theoretically and methodologically this article offers a formal theoretical model of criminal capital indicators and tests for greater illegal wage returns using a sample of serious adolescent offenders many of whom participate in illegal income generating activities our results reveal that consistent with human capital theory important illegal wage premiums are associated with investments in criminal capital notably an increasing but declining marginal return to experience and a premium for specialization furthermore as in studies of legal labor markets we find strong evidence that if left unaccounted for nonrandom sample selection causes severe bias in models of ille

better schools less crime i estimate the impact of attending a first choice middle or high school on adult crime using data from public school choice lotteries in charlotte mecklenburg school district cms seven years after random assignment lottery winners had been arrested for fewer serious crimes and had spent fewer days incarcerated the gain in school quality as measured by peer and teacher inputs was equivalent to moving from one of the lowest ranked schools to one at the district average the reduction in crime comes largely from years after enrollment in the preferred school is complete the impacts are concentrated among high risk youth who commit about 50 less crime across several different outcome measures and scalings of crime by severity i find suggestive evidence that school quality explains more of the impact in high school whereas peer effects are more important in middle school copyright 2011 oxford university press

commodity price shocks and civil conflict evidence from colombia how do income shocks aect armed con ict theory suggests two op posite eects if labor is used to appropriate resources violently higher wages may lower con ict by reducing labor supplied to appropriation this is the opportunity cost eect alternatively a rise in contestable income may increase violence by raising gains from appropriation this is the rapacity eect our paper exploits exogenous price shocks in inter national commodity markets and a rich dataset on civil war in colombia to assess how dierent income shocks aect con ict we examine changes in the price of agricultural goods which are labor intensive and natural resources which are capital intensive we focus on coee and oil the two largest exports we nd that a sharp fall in coee prices in the 1990s increased violence dierentially in regions growing more coee by lower ing wages and the opportunity cost of joining armed groups in contrast a rise in oil prices increased violence dierentially in the oil region by in creasing municipal revenue siphoned through rapacity this pattern holds in several other agricultural and natural resource sectors providing robust evidence that price shocks aect con ict in opposite directions depending on the factor intensity of the commodity

crime and poverty a search theoretic approach numerous studies document that criminal activity is positively related to unemployment and negatively related to educational attainment levels within given communities we study this phenomenon in the context of a search equilibrium model in which agents choose between formal employment and pursuing crimerelated activities theft prior to their occupational choices agents undertake costly schooling raising their productivity crime acts in essence as a tax on human capital by affecting the probability that a worker s earnings possessions are subsequently appropriated there are multiple equilibria high crime low levels of educational attainment long spells of unemployment and poverty are correlated across them

education work and crime a human capital approach this article develops a model of crime in which human capital increases the opportunity cost of crime from foregone work and expected costs associated with incarceration older more intelligent and more educated adults should commit fewer street unskilled crimes white collar crimes decline less or increase with age and education predictions for age crime and education crime relationships receive broad empirical support in self report data from the national longitudinal survey of youth and arrest data from the uniform crime reports the effects of education training and wage subsidies as well as enforcement policies on criminal behavior are discussed

squealer dealers the market for information in federal drug trafficking prosecutions never rat on your friends and always keep your mouth shut jimmy conway goodfellas citing his invaluable aid in the war against the mafia a federal judge yesterday rewarded a once powerful mob figure who became a major government informer by sentencing him to just five years in prison despite his admitted involvement in 19 murders the new york times september 27 19941 i introduction since the seminal theoretical work of becker 1968 the economics of crime has developed an extensive empirical literature 2 this article adds to that literature by studying markets for information in federal prosecutions of drug trafficking conspiracies in these markets law enforcement demands information that can help prosecute and imprison suspected drug traffickers while other drug traffickers supply the information 3 the price over which demanders and suppliers higgle is the size of an informer s sentence reduction 4 mustard 2001 using federal sentencing data found that different demographic groups have different rates relative quantities of providing substantial assistance the federal legal term meaning information against other defendants 5 this article adds to mustard 2001 by using federal sentencing of convicted drug traffickers to uncover whether different demographic groups have different relative prices for their information i e whether different groups receive larger sentence reductions higher prices or smaller sentence reductions lower prices when providing substantial assistance then in a simple manner similar to well known examinations of the returns to education in the 1970s and 1980s levy and mumane 1992 murphy and welch 1989 price and quantity determine whether certain groups experience different relative demand or relative supply for their testimony groups experiencing high relative demand have their information highly sought by law enforcement and therefore have high rates quantities of providing substantial assistance and large sentence reductions prices when doing so those with low relative demand have low quantities and low prices groups with high relative supply of substantial assistance have high quantities but low prices while those with low relative supply have low quantities and high prices this article further adds to the literature by going beyond demographic factors and examining what criminality related factors e g criminal history role in a criminal conspiracy and type of drug dealt affect supply and demand for information and by examining supply and demand conditional on expected prison sentence results show that women and better educated defendants experience high relative demand for information while blacks hispanics and non u s citizens experience low relative demand groups facing long prison sentences dealers of harder drugs those with long criminal histories and high level dealers have high relative supply while those facing short sentences primarily low level dealers have low relative supply when controlling for expected sentence crack dealers high level dealers and dealers with long criminal histories experience low demand race specific estimations show that women of all races experience high relative demand for information the rest of this article is organized as follows section ii discusses the federal criminal justice system emphasizing reforms established by the sentencing reform act of 1984 and the anti drug abuse act of 1986 section iii discusses the data and provides summary statistics section iv discusses my empirical methodology section v shows results and section vi attempts to explain them section vii discusses results from race specific estimations and section viii concludes ii federal criminal sentencing through most of the 1980s and before federal judges possessed near total discretion in determining sentences for criminals convicted of violating federal statutes e

cultures of illegality in the national hockey league 1 introductionthe economic model of crime demonstrates how an individual might decide to engage in illegal activity it demonstrates that such activity may be motivated by incentives associated with a person s human capital skills the availability of legitimate activity preferences for risk the potential sanction and the probability of detection but individualized as it may be illegal activity still takes place in a social context fundamentally a person who commits a crime has violated laws or other institutions formed by the larger social group by the same token society s collective experiences fears expectations and reactions in relation to crime may well influence the individual decision to commit crime given crime s social content can we disentangle the influence of social environment or culture from the individual factors that determine crime 1 this article addresses this question in the economic model of crime hypothetical agents consider the various benefits and costs of legal and illegal activity and then decide how much time to devote to either activity a more criminalized culture of illegality might enhance the potential benefit of crime through tacit or overt encouragement of crime and might reduce the potential cost of crime by relieving some of the stigma social cost associated with it 2 if individuals experience a more pronounced culture of illegality they might engage in more illegal activity on that basis in principle if we could remove them from that culture they would less likely engage in illegal activity but many factors complicate this possibility over time and over space societal crime rates appear to vary in the opposite direction as overall wealth whether measured in terms of legal wage opportunities or income level 3 therefore any hypothetical change in a person s culture of illegality would almost certainly imply a change in his wealth or his opportunity to engage in legal time allocation furthermore an individual who experiences a cultural change carries along a set of personal characteristics e g tastes for illegality or for risk that likely do not vary across cultures testing empirically for the influence of culture on individual level crime thus requires a sample of individuals who engage in both legal and illegal activity data on their personal incentives to engage in legal and illegal behavior including their wealth data on their cultures of illegality and some exogenous cultural change that affects some subset of them the data used in this study relating to players in the national hockey league nhl possess each of these features as illustrated by allen 2002 the nhl provides a useful setting for analyzing the economic model of crime especially when one follows the legal and illegal behavior of a sample of players over a period of time in a panel setting like citizens in society hockey players react to a number of factors interpretable as benefits or costs associated with committing illegal activity on ice rules violations which result in penalties for example a player s own history of involvement in illegality such as measured by his career penalty minutes likely indicates the manner by which he generally achieves success in the sport while deficiencies in his current team at penalty killing defending against goals while shorthanded likely act as costs and hence as deterrents because hockey players have team based objectives their behavior may be influenced by the values and expectations of a larger social group the team the league fans with respect to physically aggressive play in ice hockey the culture of illegality may even have a situational character in a given game the degree to which one player s illegality is accepted may emanate in part from the level of illegality or violence demonstrated by the opposing team in that game also because some players get traded from one team to another during the course of a season we can observe economic agents who experience exogenous change in the culture of illegality around them

racial labor market gaps the role of abilities and schooling choices this paper studies the relationship between abilities schooling choices and black white differentials in labor market outcomes the analysis is based on a model of endogenous schooling choices agents schooling decisions are based on expected future earnings family background and unobserved abilities earnings are also determined by unobserved abilities the analysis distinguishes unobserved abilities from observed test scores the model is implemented using data from the nlsy79 the results indicate that even after controlling for abilities there exist significant racial labor market gaps they also suggest that the standard practice of equating observed test scores may overcompensate for differentials in ability

building criminal capital behind bars peer effects in juvenile corrections this paper analyzes the influence that juvenile offenders serving time in the same correctional facility have on each other s subsequent criminal behavior the analysis is based on data on over 8 000 individuals serving time in 169 juvenile correctional facilities during a two year period in florida these data provide a complete record of past crimes facility assignments and arrests and adjudications in the year following release for each individual to control for the non random assignment to facilities we include facility fixed effects thereby estimating peer effects using only within facility variation over time we find strong evidence of peer effects for various categories of theft burglary and felony drug and weapon crimes the influence of peers primarily affects individuals who already have some experience in a particular crime category we also find evidence that peer effects are stronger in smaller facilities and that the predominant types of peer effects differ in residential versus non residential facilities effects in the latter are consistent with network formation among youth serving time close to home

inequality and violent crime abstract we investigate the robustness and causality of the link between income inequality and violent crime across countries first we study the correlation between the gini index and homicide and robbery rates within and between countries second we examine the partial correlation by considering other crime determinants third we control for the endogeneity of inequality by isolating its exogenous impact on these crime rates fourth we control for measurement error in crime rates by modeling it as both unobserved country effects and random noise finally we examine the robustness of this partial correlation to alternative measures of inequality the panel data consist of nonoverlapping 5 year averages for 39 countries during 1965 95 for homicides and 37 countries during 1970 94 for robberies crime rates and inequality are positively correlated within countries and particularly between countries and this correlation reflects causation from inequality to crime rates even after controlling for ot

an on the job search model of crime inequality and unemployment we extend simple search models of crime unemployment and inequality to incorporate on the job search this is valuable because although simple models are useful on the job search models are more interesting theoretically and more relevant empirically we characterize the wage distribution unemployment rate and crime rate theoretically and use quantitative methods to illustrate key results for example we find that increasing the unemployment insurance replacement rate from 53 to 65 percent increases unemployment and crime rates from 10 and 2 7 percent to 14 and 5 2 percent we show multiple equilibria arise for some fairly reasonable parameters in one case unemployment can be 6 or 23 percent and crime 0 or 10 percent depending on the equilibrium

crime rates male youth unemployment and real income in australia evidence from granger causality tests this article applies granger causality tests to examine the relationship between seven different categories of property crime and violent crime against the person male youth unemployment and real male average weekly earnings in australia from 1964 to 2001 within a cointegration and vector error correction framework it is found that fraud homicide and motor vehicle theft are cointegrated with male youth unemployment and real male average weekly earnings however there is no evidence of a long run relationship between either break and enter robbery serious assault or stealing with male youth unemployment and real male average weekly earnings

crime rates and local labor market opportunities in the united states 1979 1997 the labor market prospects of young unskilled men fell dramatically in the 1980s and improved in the 1990s crime rates show a reverse pattern increasing during the 1980s and falling in the 1990s because young unskilled men commit most crime this paper seeks to establish a causal relationship between the two trends previous work on the relationship between labor markets and crime focused mainly on the relationship between the unemployment rate and crime and found inconclusive results in contrast this paper examines the impact of both wages and unemployment on crime and uses instrumental variables to establish causality we conclude that both wages and unemployment are significantly related to crime but that wages played a larger role in the crime trends over the last few decades these results are robust to the inclusion of deterrence variables controls for simultaneity and controlling for individual and family characteristics

bank mergers and crime the real and social effects of credit market competition using a unique sample of commercial loans and mergers between large banks we provide micro level within county evidence linking credit conditions to economic development and find a spillover effect on crime neighborhoods that experience more bank mergers are subject to higher interest rates diminished local construction lower prices an influx of poorer households and higher property crime in subsequent years the elasticity of property crime with respect to merger induced banking concentration is 0 18 we show that these results are not likely due to reverse causation and confirm the central findings using state branching deregulation to instrument for bank competition we examine the real and social impact of local credit competition by documenting a link between the competitiveness of the local banking market credit conditions urban development and crime several recent studies peek and rosengren 2000 cetorelli and gambera 2001 klein peek and rosengren 2002 and burgess and pande 2003 tie credit market imperfections to diminished real economic activity and growth other studies connect the economic environment to property crime freeman 1999 levitt 2001 raphael and winter ebmer 2001 and nilsson 2004 it is reasonable to hypothesize therefore that reductions in bank competition may lead to economic decline and subsequently increases in property crime we empirically investigate the effects of bank consolidation and increased market power on credit availability and real activity using a unique sample of commercial loans and mergers between large banks in the 1990s we provide micro level evidence that garmaise is from the ucla anderson school and moskowitz is from the graduate school of business university of chicago and nber we have benefited from the suggestions and comments of tony bernardo marianne bertrand phillip bond doug diamond mark duggan eugene fama

education and crime over the life cycle we compare two large scale policy interventions aimed at reducing crime subsidizing high school completion and increasing the length of prison sentences to this purpose we use a life cycle model with endogenous education and crime choices we apply the model to property crime and calibrate it to u s data we find that targeting crime reductions through increases in high school graduation rates entails large efficiency and welfare gains these gains are absent if the same crime reduction is achieved by increasing the length of sentences we also find that general equilibrium effects explain roughly one half of the reduction in crime from subsidizing high school

employment deterrence and crime in a dynamic model using maximum likelihood techniques and monthly panel data we solve and estimate an explicitly dynamic model of criminal behavior where current criminal activity impacts future labor market outcomes we show that the threat of future adverse effects in the labor market when arrested acts as a strong deterrent to crime moreover such forward looking behavior is estimated to be important hence policies that weaken this deterrence will be much less effective in fighting crime this suggests that prevention is more powerful than redemption since anticipated redemption allows criminals to look forward to negating the consequences of their crimes

crime punishment and prejudice abstract we examine the link between the penalties used to punish convicted criminals and judicial prejudice against defendants in our model agents choose to commit crimes if their privately observed utility from doing so is high enough a crime generates noisy evidence and defendants are convicted when the realized amount of evidence is sufficiently strong to establish the probability of guilt beyond a fixed threshold we show that if convicted offenders are incarcerated poorer individuals face a strong prior prejudice in trials and are therefore convicted with less evidence than richer individuals at the same time they commit crimes more frequently penalties such as monetary fines can eliminate this bias but may also reverse it we fully characterize the penalty schedule that guarantees an unbiased equilbrium we extend the model such that agents also differ in characteristics such as race or gender we show biased outcomes targeted at subgroups of the population may still exist even if all members of the population are ex ante alike in their economic characteristics

a dynamic model of differential human capital and criminal activity this paper presents a dynamic model of criminal activity individuals are endowed with legal and criminal human capital potential incomes in legal and criminal sectors depend on the level of the relevant human capital the rate of return and random shocks human capital can be enhanced by participating in both sectors legal human capital can also be enhanced through investment human capital is subject to depreciation individuals maximize expected discounted lifetime utility which depends on consumption the model allows analyses of the effects of recessions imprisonment rehabilitation scenarios sanctions and returns to human capital new insights such as hysteresis in criminal behaviour are obtained

neighborhood crime and young males job opportunity abstract a puzzling aspect of america s crime problem is the concentration of crime in poor inner city neighborhoods the economic model of crime suggests that this concentration may be caused by a dearth of legitimate earnings opportunities for young males living in these neighborhoods while studies on spatial mismatch in the low skilled labor market have documented the relatively poor job opportunity possessed by youth in these neighborhoods there exists no evidence on the role job opportunity plays in explaining the dramatic spatial variation in crime within urban areas using a unique panel of neighborhood crime and employment data for atlanta i estimate models that control for time and fixed effects as well as the possible endogeneity of job opportunity the results suggest that young males job opportunity plays a key role in resolving the enigma surrounding the high variation in crime across urban neighborhoods

what accounts for the decline in crime in this article we analyze recent trends in aggregate property crime rates in the united states we propose a dynamic equilibrium model that guides our quantitative investigation of the major determinants of observed patterns of crime our main findings can be summarized as follows first the model is capable of reproducing the drop in crime between 1980 and 1996 second the most important factors that account for the observed decline in property crime are the higher apprehension probability the stronger economy and the aging of the population third the effect of unemployment on crime is negligible fourth the increased inequality prevented an even larger decline in crime overall our analysis can account for the behavior of the time series of property crime rates over the past quarter century

political business cycles and macroeconomic credibility a survey there is clear evidence that government popularity and election performance is affected in part by economic performance suggesting that governments may manipulate the economy to political advantage simple models incorporating adaptive expectations which allowed the government to exploit this relationship were developed in the 1970s but fell out of fashion with the advent of new classical economics however modern theories of the political business cycle which are closely related to the macroeconomic policy game literature assume rational expectations and lead to forms of political business cycle driven by the existence of uncertainty of one type or another the international evidence suggests that some aspects of the theories apply although definitive conclusions are as we might expect hard to come by

crime and victimization an economic perspective the recent upward trend in crime rates of developing countries has spurred widespread public concern about personal and proprietary insecurity in some countries the questions of crime violence and victimization are attracting more attention from academics and policy makers than traditional economic problems the objective of this paper is to examine the main issues related to crime and victimization from an economic perspective for this purpose the paper combines a review of the main results established in the literature with original research on the causes of crime and the risk factors of victimization the first section provides a review of the estimates of the costs of crime the main theoretical and empirical research on its causes and the relative advantages of official and survey data on crime the second section presents original work on the main causes of violent crime from a cross country perspective the empirical work starts with a basic model of the economic determinants of homicide and robbery rates in turn this empirical model is extended along five dimensions 1 deterrence factors 2 illegal drug related activities 3 demographic issues 4 income and ethnic polarization and 5 social capital the third section reviews recent case studies of latin american cities that rely on survey data to assess the empirical determinants of the probability of victimization these studies focus on three types of risk factors 1 individual characteristics 2 household characteristics and 3 community characteristics the main conclusions from the previous sections are summarized in section four

sources of regime switching in short term interest rates for canada the purpose of this study is to identify sources of regime switching in short term interest rates for canada the choice of information variables is based on three well known hypotheses about interest rates the expectations hypothesis the fisher relationship and the condition for uncovered interest parity the empirical framework consists of an autoregressive distributive lag adl model in error correction form with information spreads and a markov regime switching estimation methodology the models choose interest rate regimes that are similar in many respects to those found for the usa the different regimes in canada are driven by movements in the monetary policy rate the us short term rate and the long term yield the monetary policy rate is found to trigger very large changes in the short term rate responding one for one in the high variance regime and slightly less in the more normal interest rate regime both the us short rate and long term yield are also found to trigger relatively large

the crime reducing effect of education in this article we study the crime reducing potential of education presenting causal statistical estimates based upon a law that changed the compulsory school leaving age in england and wales we frame the analysis in a regression discontinuity setting and uncover significant decreases in property crime from reductions in the proportion of people with no educational qualifications and increases in the age of leaving school that resulted from the change in the law the findings show that improving education can yield significant social benefits and can be a key policy tool in the drive to reduce crime

property crime investigating career patterns and earnings abstract i investigate self reported theft data in the nlsy 1997 cohort for the years 1997 2011 several striking patterns emerge first individuals appear to be active thieves for extremely short periods in most cases in only one year and fewer than 5 of thieves for more than three years out of the 15 years of data second self reported earnings from theft are generally very low and there is little evidence of successful criminals or consistent earnings from theft third measures that proxy impatience smoking for example are highly correlated with theft fourthly thieves and non thieves have similar earnings during the years of peak theft activity but thieves have lower earnings in their late 20s after most have long since stopped committing theft attrition of survey respondents underreporting and incapacitation effects do not appear to explain this there may be professional thieves too rare to show up in even large samples such as the nlsy theft in the united states thus appears to be substantially a phenomenon of individuals entering a temporary period of intensified risk taking in adolescence

changes in regime and the term structure a note abstract in a recent paper in this journal james hamilton 1988 argues that anomalous behaviour of interest rate data in the u s can be accommodated within the expectations model if allowance is made for the possibility of stochastic changes of regime but close examination of his data reveals that an inappropriate series for the yield on ten year bonds was used with more appropriate data his finding of a switch of regime over the period 1979 1982 appears to be robust the stochastic regime switching model however is no longer able to reconcile this data with the expectations model of the term structure

the stock market and investment another look at the micro foundations of q theory this paper introduces a novel distinction between real q and financial q the paper examines three versions of financial q developed by brainard and tobin minsky and hayashi respectively these theories differ regarding the nature of stock market price determination and their use of marginal productivity theory it is shown that non profit maximising behaviour by managers does not invalidate q theory it is also shown that if managers and shareholders have different profit expectations this leads to an equilibrium value of q that differs from unity lastly the implicit claims in q theory regarding the efficient role of stock markets as regulators of capital accumula tion are shown to depend on assumptions about stockholder behaviour

weather shocks agriculture and crime evidence from india we use detailed crime agriculture and weather data from india during the years 1971 2000 to conduct a systematic analysis of the relationship between weather shocks and multiple categories of crime we find that drought and heat exert a strong impact on virtually all types of crimes that the impact on property crimes is larger than for violent crimes and that this relationship has been relatively stable over three decades of economic development we then use seasonal and geographical disaggregations of weather and agricultural cultivation to examine the prevailing hypothesis that agricultural income shocks drive the weather crime relationship in developing countries the patterns we find are consistent with this hypothesis in the case of rainfall shocks but suggest additional mechanisms may play an important role in driving the heat crime relationship consistent with evidence from industrialized countries

do state minimum wages affect the incarceration rate because of historically unprecedented increases in the prison population since the late 1970s the united states has the highest incarceration rate in the world using becker s 1968 framework on crime this study investigates the causal relationship between incarceration rates and state minimum wages our identification strategy consists of a state level fixed effects model and autor and dorn s 2013 two stage least squares 2sls approach using the historical local industry structure we predict the change in employment shares of manual task intensive occupations and use those as an instrument for state minimum wages the fixed effects and 2sls estimates suggest that a one dollar increase in state minimum wage leads to approximately 12 25 fewer incarcerations per 100 000 state residents estimates of the heterogeneous impacts by race and gender indicate that the aggregate impact of state minimum wages is entirely driven by men

monetary policy shifts and long term interest rates the pure expectations hypothesis peh serves as the benchmark model for the relationship between yields on bonds of different maturities when coupled with rational expectations however empirical renderings of the model fail miserably i explore the possibility that failure to account for changes in monetary policy regime explains much of the failure of the peh estimating changing monetary regimes in conjunction with the peh significantly improves its performance the predicted spread between the long and short rates is highly correlated with the actual spread the standard deviation of the theoretical spread is nearly identical to that of the actual spread

how and why does immigration affect crime evidence from malaysia the perception that immigration fuels crime is an important source of anti immigrant sentiment using malaysian data for 2003 10 this paper provides estimates of the overall impact of economic imm

does social capital reduce crime abstract we investigate the effects of civic norms and associational networks on crime rates civic norms may attach guilt and shame to criminal behavior thus increasing its opportunity cost associational networks may increase returns to noncriminal activities and raise detection probabilities but they may also work as communication channels for criminals and may offer official cover to criminal activities the empirical assessment of these effects poses serious problems of endogeneity omitted variables measurement error and spatial correlation italy s great variance in social and economic characteristics its homogeneity in policies and institutions and the availability of historical data on social capital in its regions allow us to minimize the first two problems to tackle the last two problems we use report rate adjusted crime rates and estimate a spatial lag model we find that both civic norms and associational networks have a negative and significant effect on property crimes across italia

striking at the roots of crime the impact of welfare spending on crime during the great depression abstractduring the great depression contemporaries worried that people hit by hard times would resort to crime president franklin roosevelt argued that the massive government relief efforts struck at the roots of crime by providing subsistence income to needy families after constructing a panel data set for 81 large american cities for the years 1930 40 we estimate the effect of relief spending by all levels of government on crime rates the analysis suggests that a 10 percent increase in relief spending during the 1930s reduced property crime by roughly 1 5 percent by limiting the amount of relief recipients free time work relief may have been more effective than direct relief in reducing crime more generally our results indicate that social insurance which tends to be understudied in economic analyses of crime should be more explicitly and more carefully incorporated into the analysis of temporal and spatial variations in criminal activity

juvenile crime and punishment evidence from japan over the last decade juvenile crime has become a serious social problem in japan the juvenile law was revised in 2001 to impose harsher punishment on juvenile offenders this revision makes it possible to impose criminal punishment on 14 and 15 year old criminal offenders while those offenders aged 16 19 have always faced criminal punishment both before and after the revision using this revision as a natural experiment this study conducts a difference in differences estimation to examine the effect of punishment on juvenile crime the analysis provides evidence that punishment can deter juvenile crime in addition this research examines the criminal behaviour of 13 year olds who face no change in punishment but who soon will in the near future the results suggest that the revision also had a negative impact on the criminal behaviour of these younger offenders

crime and unemployment in turbulent times we use the exceptional variation in municipality level unemployment in sweden during the 1990s to identify the effect of unemployment on crime our findings are as follows i there is a statistically and economically significant effect of general unemployment on the incidence of burglary auto theft and drug possession ii we find no evidence for the popular view that youth unemployment matters for crime iii prime aged unemployment is robustly correlated with main categories of youthful crimes a finding consistent with the idea that unstable life conditions of parents have adverse spillover effects on the life choices of their children jel j00 k4

identifying the effect of unemployment on crime abstract in this paper we analyze the relationship between unemployment and crime using u s state data we estimate the effect of unemployment on the rates of seven felony offenses we control extensively for state level demographic and economic factors and estimate specifications that include state specific time trends state effects and year effects in addition we use prime defense contracts and a state specific measure of exposure to oil shocks as instruments for unemployment rates we find significantly positive effects of unemployment on property crime rates that are stable across model specifications our estimates suggest that a substantial portion of the decline in property crime rates during the 1990s is attributable to the decline in the unemployment rate the evidence for violent crime is considerably weaker however a closer analysis of the violent crime of rape yields some evidence that the employment prospects of males are weakly related to state rape rates

a theory of the worst forms of child labour although intuitive and morally compelling a ban on the worst forms of child labour in poor countries is unlikely to be welfare improving we show that harmful forms of child labour have an economic role by maintaining wages for child labour high enough they allow human capital accumulation in poor countries unless appropriate mechanisms are designed to mitigate the decline in child labour wages caused by reduced employment options for children a ban on harmful forms of child labour will likely prove undesirable we perform our analysis within a simple model of parental investment in children s education

the socioeconomic determinants of ill gotten gains within person changes in drug use and illegal earnings generalizing from the sociology of earnings attainment we develop a conceptual model of social embeddedness in conventional and criminal activities to explain illegal earnings among criminal offenders to isolate the effects of time varying factors such as legal earnings drug use and criminal opportunities we use data from the national supported work demonstration project to estimate fixed effects models predicting month to month changes in illegal earnings we find that criminal earnings are sensitive to embeddedness in conforming work and family relationships criminal experience and the perceived risks and rewards of crime moreover heroin and cocaine use creates a strong earnings imperative that is difficult to satisfy in the low wage labor market and offenders earn far more money illegally when they are using these drugs than during periods of abstinence

testing the term structure of interest rates using a stationary vector autoregression with regime switching abstract the expectations model of the term structure for us data on three and six month treasury bills for the period 1962 1 1987 3 is explored the analysis allows for the nonstationarity of the data and for unobserved stochastic switches of regime by estimating vars in the yield spread and the change in the three month rate which allow the time series processes to change between regimes in contrast to other results for the expectations model such as those of hamilton 1988 mankiw and miron 1986 and others we find that the data do not reject the model

cross sectional versus time series estimation of term structure models empirical results for the dutch bond market abstract we compare time series and cross section estimates of the well known vasicek and cir term structure models for a dataset of daily bond prices and short term interest rates for the netherlands the main finding is the great similarity between the two models with respect to the cross sectional term structure parameter estimates and implied bond option values from a time series perspective we find that for some maturities the data reject the constant volatility vasicek model and indicate the presence of the cir volatility effects

delinquency schooling and work time allocation decision of youth this paper examines the possible factors that affect the time allocation decision of youth between delinquency schooling and work based on a joint decision model evidence from montreal shows that influences from different social institutions such as family church school peers and the workplace are important determinants of how young people decide to spend their time on various activities the findings provided here take into account the joint decision nature of the problem and therefore provide more precise estimates than those of the existing literature

good jobs and recidivism i estimate the impact of employment opportunities on recidivism among 1 7 million offenders released from a california prison between 1993 and 2008 the institutional structure of the california criminal justice system as well as location skill and industry specific job accession data provide a unique framework for identifying a causal effect of job availability on criminal behaviour i find that increases in construction and manufacturing opportunities at the time of release are associated with significant reductions in recidivism other types of opportunities including those characterised by lower wages that are typically accessible to individuals with criminal records do not influence recidivism

workers warriors and criminals social conflict in general equilibrium we incorporate appropriation activities social conflict into canonical models of trade and study how economic shocks and policies affect the intensity of conflict we show that not all shocks that could make society richer reduce conflict positive shocks to labor intensive industries diminish conflict while positive shocks to capital intensive industries increase it the key requirement is that conflict activities be more labor intensive than the economy as this determines how shocks affect the returns and costs of conflict our theory is consistent with several observed patterns of conflict and implies that empirical work should take into account the relative factor intensities of the productive and conflict sectors in each country incorporating appropriation into a canonic general equilibrium model affects what policies may be deemed desirable in order to reduce conflict and generate pareto improvements policy must be distortionary while reforms that appear efficiency enhancing under the unrealistic assumption of perfect property rights may backfire this offers one explanation for why reforms based on traditional models without appropriation may be delayed and become unpopular when implemented and why societies may sympathize with seemingly inefficient redistribution

social closure surnames and crime this paper studies the effect of social closure on crime and tax evasion rates using disaggregated data for italian municipalities we propose an original and innovative measure of social closure based on the diversity of surname distribution which reflects a community s history of migration and inbreeding we find that all else equal communities with a history of social closure have lower crime rates and higher tax evasion rates than more open communities the effect of social closure is likely to be causal it is relevant in magnitude statistically significant and robust to changes in the set of included controls in the specific measures of dependent and independent variables in the specification of the regression equation and in the possible sample splits our findings are consistent with the idea that social closure strengthens social sanctions and social control thus leading to more cooperative outcomes in local interactions but it reduces cooperation on a larger scale

the demand for variety a household production perspective abstract economists have devoted substantial attention to firms supply of variety but little to consumers demand for variety employing the framework of home production we trace differences in demand to differences in the opportunity costs of activities associated with investments in human capital schooling alters time costs and changes the variety of activities household members choose time budgets from australia israel and west germany show that higher own and spouses incomes raise variety suggesting positive income effects education increases variety independent of income and earnings part of its impact goes beyond a correlation of educational attainment with preferences for variety

structural estimation of a becker ehrlich equilibrium model of crime allocating police across cities to reduce crime we develop a model of crime in which the number of police the crime rate the arrest rate the employment rate and the wage rate are joint outcomes of a subgame perfect nash equilibrium the local government chooses the size of its police force and citizens choose among work home and crime alternatives we estimate the model using metropolitan statistical area msa level data we use the estimated model to examine the effects on crime of targeted federal transfers to local governments to increase police we find that knowledge about unobserved msa specific attributes is critical for the optimal allocation of police across msa s

the transition from school to jail youth crime and high school completion among black males abstract in this paper we study the relationship among schooling youth employment and youth crime the framework a multinomial discrete choice vector autoregression provides a comprehensive analysis of the dynamic interactions among a youth s schooling work and crime decisions and arrest and incarceration outcomes we allow for observable initial conditions unobserved heterogeneity measurement error and missing data we use data from the nlsy97 on black male youths starting from age 14 the estimates indicate important roles both for heterogeneity in initial conditions and for stochastic events that arise during one s youth in determining outcomes as young adults

local labor markets and criminal recidivism abstract this paper estimates the impact of local labor market conditions on criminal recidivism using administrative prison records on four million offenders released from 43 states between 2000 and 2013 exploiting the timing of each offender s release from prison i find that being released to a county with higher low skilled wages significantly decreases the risk of recidivism the impact of higher wages on recidivism is larger for both black offenders and first time offenders and in sectors that report being more willing to hire ex offenders these results are robust to individual and county level controls such as policing and corrections activity and do not appear to be driven by changes in the composition of released offenders during good or bad economic times

rational expectations econometric analysis of changes in regime an investigation of the term structure of interest rates abstract this paper is of interest both for its methodological contribution of new tools for analyzing rational expectations models and for its substantive conclusions concerning the term structure of interest rates during the monetary experiment of october 1979 the paper studies systems subject to changes in regime interpreted here as occasional discrete shifts in the parameters governing the time series behavior of exogenous economic variables the specification is shown to be quite tractable both theoretically and empirically the technique is used to analyze yields on three month treasury bills and ten year treasury bonds during 1962 to 1987 a constant parameter linear model for short term rates is shown to be inconsistent both with the univariate time series properties of short rates and with the observed bivariate relation between long and short rates under the expectations hypothesis of the term structure an alternative nonlinear model that admits the possibility of changes in regime affords a much better description of the univariate process for short rates moreover the cross equation restrictions implied by the expectations hypothesis of the term structure are consistent with the nonlinear specification indeed the residuals of the restricted relation have a standard error of only 0 8 basis points this is a third less than that of a completely unrestricted linear regression of long rates on short rates and compares with an unconditional standard deviation of long rates of 142 basis points i conclude that once the recognition by bond traders of changes in regime is taken into account the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates holds up fairly well for these data

the effect of employment frictions on crime this article provides estimates on how long it takes for released inmates to find a job and when they find a job how less likely they are to be incarcerated an on the job search model with crime is used to model criminal behavior derive the estimation method and analyze policies including a job placement program the results show that the unemployed are incarcerated twice as fast as the employed and take on average 6 months to find a job the article demonstrates that reducing the average unemployment spell of previously incarcerated criminals by 3 months reduces crime and recidivism by more than 5

output the stock market and interest rates this paper develops a simple model of the determination of output the stock market and the term structure of interest rates the model is an extension of the is lm model and borrows from it the assumption that output is determined by aggregate demand and that the price level can only adjust over time to its equilibrium value however whereas the is lm emphasizes the interaction between the interest rate and output this model emphasizes the interaction between asset values and output asset values rather than the interest rate are the main determinants of aggregate demand and output current and anticipated output and income are in turn the main determinants of asset values it is this interaction that the model intends to capture its goal is to characterize the joint response of asset values and output to changes in the environment such as changes or announcement of changes in monetary and fiscal policy as the above brief description makes clear anticipations are central to the story the assumption made in this paper will be one of rational expectations the paper is organized as follows section i describes the model and sections ii iv characterize the behavior of the economy under the extreme but convenient assumption that prices are fixed forever sections v and vi extend the analysis to the case where prices adjust over time to their equilibrium value

the determinants of employee crime in the uk we present evidence on employee theft in the uk using data on actual recorded crime in a model where employees are rational cheaters whose theft decisions may also be influenced by individual characteristics we produce hypotheses about the role of labour market deterrence and individual influences on employee theft we then examine the role of these influences using regional crime data supplemented by data from the uk labour force survey and the home office our results provide information on employee theft as a particular type of crime on policy that may help to combat it and on alternative views of the motivation for crime

crime and economic incentives we explore the role that economic incentives particularly changes in wages at the bottom end of the wage distribution play in determining crime rates we use data on the police force areas of england and wales between 1975 and 1996 and find relative falls in the wages of low wage workers lead to increases in crime we carry out a number of experiments with different wage measures including a wage measure that accounts for the effects of changes in the composition of employment these reinforce the picture of a strong association between the low wage labor market and crime the result that incentives play a central role is reinforced further by the strong impact on crime of deterrence measures and of a measure of the returns to crime

on the number of common unit roots in the term structure of interest rates 1994 on the number of common unit roots in the term structure of interest rates applied economics vol 26 no 8 pp 815 820

crime rates and labor market opportunities in the philippines 1970 2008 abstract the paper estimates the impact of labor market variables on crime in the philippines using national level time series and regional level panel data the evidence suggests that wage rate and labor force participation rate have stronger effect on crime than criminal deterrence variables

market wages and youth crime to study the problem of widespread youth crime i analyze a timeallocation model in which consumers face parametric wages and diminishing marginal returns to crime the theory motivates an econometric model that i estimate using data from the national longitudinal survey of youth my estimates suggest that youth behavior is responsive to price incentives and that falling real wages may have been an important determinant of rising youth crime during the 1970s and 1980s moreover wage differentials explain a substantial component of both the racial differential in criminal participation and the age distribution of crime

the changing returns to crime do criminals respond to prices to what extent does crime follow the pattern of potential gains to illegal activity this article presents evidence on how criminals respond to this key incentive by reporting crime price elasticities estimated from a comprehensive crime dataset containing detailed information on stolen items for london between 2002 and 2012 evidence of significant positive crime price elasticities are shown for a panel of 44 consumer goods and for commodity related goods jewellery fuel and metal crimes the reported evidence indicates that potential gains are a major empirical driver of criminal activity and a crucial part of the economic model of crime the changing structure of goods prices helps to explain over 10 15 of the observed fall in property crime across all goods categories and the majority of the sharp increases in the commodity related goods observed between 2002 and 2012

political economy of crime and punishment under stalin why do dictatorships favor harsher punishments than democracies we use a rational choice approach to explain the stylized facts of stalin s dictatorship preference for harsh sanctions higher incarceration rates greater use of capital punishment low tolerance for theft of state property and workplace violations they are shown to be explained by the preferences of a rational dictator who does not internalize the social and private cost of punishment

crime and the labor market a search model with optimal contracts abstract this paper extends the pissarides pissarides christopher a equilibrium unemployment theory cambridge mit 2000 model of the labor market to include crime and punishment a la becker becker gary s crime and punishment an economic approach journal of political economy 76 1968 169 217 all workers irrespective of their labor force status can commit crimes and the employment contract is determined optimally the model is used to study analytically and quantitatively the effects of various labor market and crime policies for instance a more generous unemployment insurance system reduces the crime rate of the unemployed but its effect on the crime rate of the employed depends on job duration and jail sentences when the model is calibrated to u s data the overall effect is to decrease crime but is quantitatively small small wage subsidies reduce unemployment and crime rates of employed and unemployed workers and raise society s welfare hiring subsidies reduce unemployment but they can raise the crime rate of employed workers crime policies police technology and jail sentences affect crime rates significantly but have only negligible effects on the labor market

the effect of education on crime evidence from prison inmates arrests and self reports we estimate the effect of high school graduation on participation in criminal activity accounting for endogeneity of schooling we begin by analyzing the effect of high school graduation on incarceration using census data instrumental variable estimates using changes in state compulsory attendance laws as an instrument for high school graduation uncover a significant reduction in incarceration for both blacks and whites when estimating the impact of high school graduation only ols and iv estimators estimate different weighted sums of the impact of each schooling progression on the probability of incarceration we clarify the relationship between ols and iv estimates and show that the weights placed on the impact of each schooling progression can explain differences in the estimates overall the estimates suggest that completing high school reduces the probability of incarceration by about 76 percentage points for whites and 3 4 percentage points for blacks we corroborate these findings using fbi data on arrests that distinguish among different types of crimes the biggest impacts of graduation are associated with murder assault and motor vehicle theft we also examine the effect of drop out on self reported crime in the nlsy and find that our estimates for imprisonment and arrest are caused by changes in criminal behavior and not educational differences in the probability of arrest or incarceration conditional on crime we estimate that the externality of education is about 14 26 of the private return to schooling suggesting that a significant part of the social return to education comes in the form of externalities from crime reduction

the effects of labor markets and income inequality on crime evidence from panel data we estimate a model of crime using panel data for the u s we focus on the role of labor markets income distribution and demographics on property crime we find strong evidence that favorable labor market conditions have a significant negative effect on property crime we further test this result using sector specific wages and find that crime is most elastic with respect to wages in sectors that use low skilled labor we also find that income inequality has no significant effect on crime and that the proportion of young males in the population has a significant positive effect on crime

a markov model of switching regime arch in this article i present a new approach to model more realistically the variability of financial time series i develop a markov arch model that incorporates the features of both hamilton s switching regime model and engle s autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity arch model to examine the issue of volatility persistence in the monthly excess returns of the three month treasury bill the issue can be resolved by taking into account occasional shifts in the asymptotic variance of the markov arch process that cause the spurious persistence of the volatility process i identify two periods during which there is a regime shift the 1974 2 1974 8 period associated with the oil shock and the 1979 9 1982 8 period associated with the federal reserve s policy change the variance approached asymptotically in these two episodes is more than 10 times as high as the asymptotic variance for the remainder of the sample i conclude that regime shifts have a greater impact on the properties of the data and i ca

carrots sticks and broken windows abstract this paper investigates the effect of economic conditions carrots and sanctions sticks on murder assault robbery burglary motor vehicle theft grand larceny and rape in new york city using monthly time series data spanning 1974 99 carrots are measured by the unemployment rate and the real minimum wage sticks are measured by the number of felony arrests size of the police force and number of new york city residents in prison in addition the paper tests the validity of the broken windows hypothesis consistent with its implementation by the new york police department we use misdemeanor arrests as a measure of broken windows policing the broken windows hypothesis has validity in the case of robbery motor vehicle theft and grand larceny while both economic and deterrence variables are important in explaining the decline in crime the contribution of deterrence measures is larger than those of economic variables

casinos crime and community costs we examine the relationship between casinos and crime using county level data for the united states between 1977 and 1996 casinos were nonexistent outside nevada before 1978 and expanded to many other states during our sample period most factors that reduce crime occur before or shortly after a casino opens whereas those that increase crime including problem and pathological gambling occur over time the results suggest that the effect on crime is low shortly after a casino opens and grows over time roughly 8 of crime in casino counties in 1996 was attributable to casinos costing the average adult 75 per year

labor supply home production and welfare comparisons abstract we consider the collective model of labor supply with marketable domestic production we first show that if domestic production is mistakenly ignored the collective indirect utility functions that are retrieved from observed behavior will be unbiased if and only if the retrieved from observed behavior will be unbiased if and only if the profit function is additive otherwise in the non additive case the direction and the size of the bias will depend on the complementarity substitutability of spouses time inputs in the production process we then show that even if domestic labor supply functions are not observed valid welfare comparisons are possible this identification result generalizes that in chiappori chiappori p a 1992 collective labor supply and welfare journal of political economy 100 437 467

minimum wage effects in the longer run exposure to minimum wages at young ages could lead to adverse longer run effects via decreased labor market experience and tenure and diminished education and training while beneficial longer run effects could arise if minimum wages increase skill acquisition evidence suggests that as individuals reach their late 20s they earn less the longer they were exposed to a higher minimum wage at younger ages and the adverse longer run effects are stronger for blacks if there are such longer run effects of minimum wages they are likely more significant than the contemporaneous effects on youths that are the focus of research and policy debate