carbon dioxide emissions and economic growth panel data evidence from developing countries in this paper we test the environment kuznet s curve ekc hypothesis for 43 developing countries we suggest examining the ekc hypothesis based on the short and long run income elasticities that is if the long run income elasticity is smaller than the short run income elasticity then it is evident that a country has reduced carbon dioxide emissions as its income has increased our empirical analysis based on individual countries suggests that jordan iraq kuwait yemen qatar the uae argentina mexico venezuela algeria kenya nigeria congo ghana and south africa approximately 35 per cent of the sample carbon dioxide emissions have fallen over the long run that is as these economies have grown emissions have fallen since the long run income elasticity is smaller than the short run elasticity we also examine the ekc hypothesis for panels of countries constructed on the basis of regional location using the panel cointegration and the panel long run estimation techniques we find that only for the middle eastern and south asian panels the income elasticity in the long run is smaller than the short run implying that carbon dioxide emission has fallen with a rise in income

stock price clustering and discreteness stock prices cluster on round fractions clustering increases with price level and volatility and decreases with capitalization and transaction frequency clustering is pervasive price clustering will occur if traders use discrete price sets to simplify their negotiations exchange regulations require that most stocks be traded on eighths clustering on larger fractions will occur if traders choose to use discrete price sets based on quarters halves or whole numbers an econometric model of clustering is derived and estimated projections from the results suggest that traders would frequently use odd sixteenths when trading low price stocks if exchange regulations permitted trading on sixteenths article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

tick size the compass rose and market nanostructure abstract economists have begun using methods borrowed from the physical sciences to search for non linearities in economic and financial data the so called phase portrait from chaos theory in which the values of a time series are plotted against their delayed values is one of the techniques employed for this purpose it has recently been shown however that when returns on traded assets are plotted in this manner in two or three dimensional space surprising patterns arise which seriously distort the conclusions that can be drawn about the underlying data these patterns which resemble a compass rose reflect the microstructure of the market or more specifically the finite size of the ticks by which prices can change in a market the present paper clarifies the reason for this phenomenon it is shown that within the microstructure there exists nanostructure that becomes visible only when the computations are performed without approximation high frequency data from a foreign exchange market are used to illustrate this phenomenon

a note on the wang and wang measure of the quality of the compass rose abstract h wang and c wang visibility of the compass rose in financial asset returns a quantitative study j bank financ 26 2002 1099 1111 derive a measure of the visibility of the radial patterns that appear in a plot of current and past returns which are more commonly known as the compass rose in theory this measure should be positively related to the tick volatility ratio in practice however we find that this relationship does not hold for higher tick volatility ratios that are common to stock market data thus the use of this measure is limited in real world applications we propose a correction factor that improves the behaviour of the quality measure over higher tick volatility ratios however further research is required to fully identify and correct the problem

an explanation for the compass rose pattern abstract the compass rose pattern cannot be observed in daily returns in the spot foreign exchange forex market but is observable when intraday forex returns are used monte carlo simulations show that the pattern is visible only when the tick volatility ratio is above some threshold level a condition that is readily met with intraday returns

chaos and the compass rose abstract we show that the recently discovered compass pattern in stock returns that results from discrete jumps of stocks seriously distorts the null distribution of the brock dechert scheinkmann bds chaos test under the null hypothesis of i i d returns the true rejection probability exceeds the nominal size by wide margins which suggests that much of the evidence for chaos that has so far been found in stock returns might well be due to the fact that prices change only in discrete ticks

purchasing power parity and the euro area abstract this paper analyzes purchasing power parity ppp for the euro area we study the impact of the introduction of the euro in 1999 on the behavior of real exchange rates we test the ppp hypothesis for a panel of real exchange rates within the euro area over the period 1973 2003 our methodology exploits the cross sectional dependence across real exchange rates and allows for heterogeneity in the rates of mean reversion we present evidence in favor of ppp for the full panel of real exchange rates but we show that accounting for cross country differences within the euro area is essential the unit root hypothesis can be rejected for some real exchange rates but evidence for ppp is weak for others we also investigate ppp between the synthetic euro against several other major currencies over the period 1979 2003 we find support for the ppp hypothesis for the full panel of real exchange rates when the restriction of a common mean reversion coefficient is relaxed we reject the unit root hypothesis for the euro swiss franc rate only we conclude that the process of economic integration in europe has accelerated convergence toward ppp within the euro area

energy consumption economic growth and carbon emissions challenges faced by an eu candidate member abstract this paper investigates the long run granger causality relationship between economic growth carbon dioxide emissions and energy consumption in turkey controlling for gross fixed capital formation and labor the most interesting result is that carbon emissions seem to granger cause energy consumption but the reverse is not true the lack of a long run causal link between income and emissions may be implying that to reduce carbon emissions turkey does not have to forgo economic growth

toward a new conception of the environment competitiveness relationship accepting a fixed trade off between environmental regulation and competitiveness unnecessarily raises costs and slows down environmental progress studies finding high environmental compliance costs have traditionally focused on static cost impacts ignoring any offsetting productivity benefits from innovation they typically overestimated compliance costs neglected innovation offsets and disregarded the affected industry s initial competitiveness rather than simply adding to cost properly crafted environmental standards can trigger innovation offsets allowing companies to improve their resource productivity shifting the debate from pollution control to pollution prevention was a step forward it is now necessary to make the next step and focus on resource productivity

causality between income and emission a country group specific econometric analysis abstract empirical studies of the environmental kuznets curve ekc examine the presence or otherwise of an inverted u shaped relationship between the level of pollution and the level of income customarily in the diagram of ekc the level of income is shown on the horizontal axis and that of pollution on the vertical axis thus it is presumed that the relationship between income and pollution is one of unidirectional causality with income causing environmental changes and not vice versa the validity of this presumption is now being questioned it is being asserted that the nature and direction of causality may vary from one country to the other in this paper we present the results of a study of income co 2 emission causality based on a granger causality test to cross country panel data on per capita income and the corresponding per capita co 2 emission data briefly our results indicate three different types of causality relationship holding for different country groups for the developed country groups of north america and western europe and also for eastern europe the causality is found to run from emission to income for the country groups of central and south america oceania and japan causality from income to emission is obtained finally for the country groups of asia and africa the causality is found to be bi directional the regression equations estimated as part of the granger causality test further suggest that for the country groups of north america and western europe the growth rate of emission has become stationary around a zero mean and a shock in the growth rate of emission tends to generate a corresponding shock in the growth rate of income in contrast for the country groups of central and south america oceania and japan a shock in the income growth rate is likely to result in a corresponding shock in the growth rate of emission finally causality being bi directional for the country groups of asia and africa the income and the emission growth rates seemed to reinforce each other

income and emission a panel data based cointegration analysis this paper presents the results of an investigation of the causality issue of incomeemission relationship based on time series econometric techniques of unit root test cointegration and related error correction model for a panel data set here the nature of causality between per capita co2 emission pcco2 and per capita gdp pcgdp has been examined using a cross country panel data set covering 88 countries for the period 1960 90 using the panel unit root test procedure of im et al 1997 ips we have found that the hypothesis of unit root i e non stationarity of the time series of pcgdp and pcco2 can not be rejected for individual country groups as both the variables are found to follow i 1 process we next have performed the panel data co integration test and finally we have estimated the ecm for these country groups for which significant income emission cointegration was obtained to explore the nature of dynamics implicit in the given panel data set our findings suggest that there is more or less a bi directional causal relationship between income pcgdp and co2 emission pcco2 for africa central america america as a whole eastern europe western europe europe as a whole and the world as a whole that means the movement of the one variable directly affects the other variable through a feedback system thus the policy makers should be cautious to make proper decision about the control of emission level

tourism and economic development a survey this article surveys the literature on tourism and economic development identifying the contribution that tourism can make to development including foreign currency income and employment and the costs that it entails single equation and system of equations models for estimating tourism demand are provided indicating developing countries potential to benefit from increasing expenditure on tourism but their susceptibility to deterioration in price competitiveness the main sectors of tourism supply transportation tour operators travel agents and accommodation are examined and the importance of cross country integration between firms is highlighted the article argues that many of the problems associated with the use of environmental resources for tourism stem from market failure and it considers methods for increasing sustainably the returns from them

size distortions of tests of the null hypothesis of stationarity evidence and implications for the ppp debate abstract tests of the null hypothesis of stationarity against the unit root alternative play an increasingly important role in empirical work in macroeconomics and in international finance we show that the use of conventional asymptotic critical values for stationarity tests may cause extreme size distortions if the model under the null hypothesis is highly persistent this fact calls into question the use of these tests in empirical work we illustrate the practical importance of this point for tests of long run purchasing power parity ppp under the recent float we show that the common practice of viewing tests of stationarity as complementary to tests of the unit root null will tend to result in contradictions and in spurious rejections of long run ppp while the size distortions may be overcome by the use of finite sample critical values the resulting tests tend to have low power under economically plausible assumptions about the half life of deviations from ppp thus the fact that stationarity is not rejected cannot be interpreted as convincing evidence in favor of mean reversion only in the rare case that stationarity is rejected do size corrected tests shed light on the question of long run ppp

a new environmental kuznets curve relationship between direct material input and income per capita evidence from industrialised countries abstract many studies have focused on the quantification of the input of materials into the economy however the insights provided by those studies have generally been limited this paper attempts to bring analytical value to the discussion on dematerialization considering direct material input dmi per capita as the dependent variable in a test of the environmental kuznets curve ekc the explanatory variable is as usual gross domestic product per capita the quadratic and cubic versions of the ekc are tested econometrically using panel data ranging from 1960 to 1998 for 16 industrialised countries the results indicate a strong and robust support for both the quadratic and cubic ekc relationships between material input and income in industrialised economies while the statistical support to both types of evolution may seem contradictory it suggests that as industrialised economies grow the intensity of material consumption first increases but eventually starts exhibiting a decreasing trend after a certain income threshold is reached the inverted u or quadratic relationship is confirmed even though for the ranges of income considered in this study the trend is mostly on the increasing part of the inverted u curve however the statistical support to the cubic specification suggests that these results need to be regarded with caution overall the statistically stronger models are the quadratic and cubic models with country random effects and the cubic model with country and year fixed effects

the co2 emissions income nexus evidence from rich countries the paper attempts to test the environment kuznets curve ekc hypothesis for 36 high income countries for the period 1980 2005 the test is based on the suggestion of narayan and narayan 2010 various panel data unit root and co integration tests are applied carbon dioxide co2 emissions and gdp series are integrated of order one and co integrated especially after controlling for cross sectional dependence additionally the blundell bond system generalised methods of moments gmm is employed to conduct a panel causality test in a vector error correction mechanism vecm setting unidirectional causality running from real per capita gdp to per capita co2 emissions is uncovered in both the short run and the long run the empirical analysis based on individual countries provides evidence of an ekc for greece malta oman portugal and the united kingdom however it can be observed that for the whole panel a 1 increase in gdp generates an increase of 0 68 in co2 emissions in the short run and 0 22 in the long run the lower long run income elasticity does not provide evidence of an ekc but does indicate that over time co2 emissions are stabilising in the rich countries

environment kuznets curve for co2 emissions a cointegration analysis for china abstract this study examines the long run relationship between carbon emissions and energy consumption income and foreign trade in the case of china by employing time series data of 1975 2005 in particular the study aims at testing whether environmental kuznets curve ekc relationship between co 2 emissions and per capita real gdp holds in the long run or not auto regressive distributed lag ardl methodology is employed for empirical analysis a quadratic relationship between income and co 2 emission has been found for the sample period supporting ekc relationship the results of granger causality tests indicate one way causality runs through economic growth to co 2 emissions the results of this study also indicate that the carbon emissions are mainly determined by income and energy consumption in the long run trade has a positive but statistically insignificant impact on co 2 emissions

garch estimation and discrete stock prices an application to low priced australian stocks the garch model is misspecified if applied to returns calculated from discrete prices we propose a modification of the above model for handling such cases we find large differences between the standard and the extended model estimates although the results sometimes are obscured by large standard errors

international tourism and export instability export diversification has been suggested as a strategy for decreasing the level of export earnings instability which is experienced by many developing countries in recent years the international tourism sector has made an increasingly important contribution to the economies of many low income countries this article examines whether diversification into the non traditional tourism sector has succeeded in decreasing the instability of export earnings it was found that although tourism has the advantage of high growth rates and is a major source of foreign currency receipts earnings from international tourism did not bring about a significant decrease in the instability of export earnings of most of the developing and industrialised countries considered furthermore a net increase in the instability of earnings from tourism and merchandise exports occurred in a number of countries and may be a particular problem in small open developing economies

reassessing the environmental kuznets curve for co2 emissions a robustness exercise the number of studies seeking to empirically characterize the reduced form relationship between a country economic growth and the quantity of pollutants produced in the process has recently increased significantly in several cases researchers have found evidence pointing to an inverted u benvironmental kuznetsq curve in the case of co2 however the evidence is at best mixed in this paper we reconsider that evidence by assessing how robust it is when the analysis is conducted in a different parametric setup and when using alternative emissions data from the international energy agency relative to the literature our contribution can be viewed as a robustness exercise in these two respects the econometric results lead to two conclusions firstly published evidence on the ekc does not appear to depend upon the source of the data at least as far as carbon dioxide is concerned secondly when an alternative functional form is employed there is evidence of an inverted u pattern for the group of oecd countries with reasonable turning point regardless of the data set employed not so for non oecd countries as the ekc is basically increasing slowly concave according to the iea data and more bellshaped in the case of cdiac data d 2005 elsevier b v all rights reserved

robust structure without predictability the compass rose pattern of the stock market plotting daily stock returns against themselves with one day s lag reveals a striking pattern evenly spaced lines radiate from the origin the thickest lines point in the major directions of the compass this compass rose pattern appears in every stock it is caused by discreteness however counter examples demonstrate that the existence of exchange imposed tick sizes e g eighths is neither necessary nor sufficient for the compass rose the compass rose cannot be used to make abnormal profits it is structure without predictability among other consequences the compass rose may bias estimation of arch models and tests for chaos technical analysts attempt to identify recurring patterns in stock prices e g edwards and magee 1992 similarly chaos researchers embed time series of stock returns into multi dimensional spaces and attempt to identify lowdimensional attractors e g barnett and chen 1988 figure 1 the hope is that with structure comes predictability and abnormal profits in fact neither of these literatures has yet discovered indisputable structure we follow a procedure similar to a chaos researcher s we look at a simple scatter diagram of daily stock returns plotted against themselves with one day s lag we document a structural relationship the compass rose that is strikingly geometrical in contrast to the products of technical analysis and chaos theory the structure we find is indisputably present in every stock unfortunately the compass rose cannot be used for predictive purposes by market participants it is an artifact of market microstructure it follows that even a successful search for significant structure in stock market data need not enhance predictability nor lead to abnormal profits an equally important lesson is that microstructure effects can be spectacular in daily and even weekly data several areas for future research are given these include potential biases caused by the compass rose in the estimation of autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity arch models and in a standard test for chaos

is there an environmental kuznets curve for sulfur abstract most existing estimates of the environmental kuznets curve ekc for sulfur which use samples of mainly high income countries indicate a maximum emissions turning point at middle to lower high income levels of gdp per capita we use a larger and more globally representative sample than previous sulfur ekc studies we find that sulfur emissions per capita are a monotonic function of income per capita when we use a global sample and an inverted u shape function of income when we use a sample of high income countries a model estimated in first differences results in a monotonic ekc when estimated with both high income and global samples reductions in emissions are time related rather than income related

energy consumption income and carbon emissions in the united states abstract this paper investigates the effect of energy consumption and output on carbon emissions in the united states earlier research focused on testing the existence and or shape of an environmental kuznets curve without taking energy consumption into account we investigate the granger causality relationship between income energy consumption and carbon emissions including labor and gross fixed capital formation in the model we find that income does not granger cause carbon emissions in the us in the long run but energy use does hence income growth by itself may not become a solution to environmental problems

tourism as a factor in development cooperation abstract where there is little or no industrial or agricultural base and no exploitable resource tourism may make a significant contribution to the economy of a developing country the eec provides aid to developing countries in three areas the southern mediterranean asia and latin america and africa the caribbean and the pacific the commission has produced guidelines for drawing up proposals and a typical example is presented in this article the eec also supplies high quality expertise to help define policy options and strategic plans and carry out agreed programmes long term success is more likely for specialized high income projects