the impact of rural electric access on deforestation rates summary overpopulation and economic industrialization are two common explanations for deforestation political ecology however highlights that good governance and effective land management at the local level can offset the impact of population growth and development on environmental degradation in this paper we provide an innovative argument derived from political ecology to explain deforestation but rather than pursing a bottom up approach to governance we take a top down approach we argue that the state can ease deforestation rates by weaning rural populations off of the consumption of biomass for their energy needs by expanding rural electrification access using a panel analysis of 158 countries for the years 1990 2000 and 2010 we find that not only does rural electrification cause deforestation rates to decrease but also that it is more robust in explaining deforestation than population growth or development our study provides two innovations to political ecology it highlights that the state can help rather than hinder local populations with managing their local environments in a more sustainable way by providing them with public goods based energy alternatives and it supplements political ecology s qualitative focus on environmental degradation with a generalized quantitative analysis of state based initiatives on deforestation our results suggest that current global initiatives addressing deforestation specifically the reduction of emissions from deforestation and forest degradation redd agenda of the united nations framework convention on climate change should not only assist local land managers but also work with the state to ensure universal access to electricity

exploring decision makers use of price information in a speculative market we explore the extent to which the decisions of participants in a speculative market effectively account for information contained in prices and price movements the horse race betting market is an ideal environment to explore these issues a conditional logit model is constructed to determine winning probabilities based on bookmakers closing prices and the time indexed movement of prices to the market close we incorporate a technique for extracting predictors from price odds curves using orthogonal polynomials the results indicate that closing prices do not fully incorporate market price information particularly information that is less readily discernable by market participants

non farm income household welfare and sustainable land management in a less favoured area in the ethiopian highlands a bio economic model has been calibrated to the socio economic and biophysical characteristics of a less favoured area in the ethiopian highlands land degradation population growth stagnant technology and drought necessitates development of non farm employment opportunities in the area the model has been used to assess the impact of improved access to non farm income on household welfare agricultural production conservation investments and land degradation in the form of soil erosion the model simulations indicate that access to low wage off farm income is restricted by lack of employment opportunities since households otherwise would have engaged in more off farm wage employment than observed the simulations show that better unconstrained access to low wage non farm income has a substantial positive effect on household income total agricultural production crop and livestock production and farm inputs used are reduced when access to non farm employment is improved and thus increases the need to import food to the area access to non farm income reduces farm households incentives to invest in conservation and this leads to more overall soil erosion and more rapid land degradation even though intensity of production is reduced special policies are therefore needed to ensure land conservation and to sustain local food production

measuring the forest and income impacts of forest user group participation under malawi s forest co management program abstract we evaluate the impacts of forest user group participation under malawi s forest co management program on forest clearing and household income we use panel data collected in 2002 and 2009 in two districts of malawi we employ a two step regression strategy to control for endogenous selection into the program using propensity score weighting and propensity score analysis with non parametric regression we find that the program lowered the rate and extent of forest clearing we also find that the program had no discernible impact on household forest incomes suggesting that the program helped achieve environmental goals without compromising household livelihoods

effects of wildlife resources on community welfare in southern africa abstract this paper demonstrates the importance of wildlife in the portfolio of environmental income in the livelihoods of poor rural communities living adjacent to a national park the results show that wealthier households use more wildlife resources in total than do relatively poor households however poorer households derive greater proportional benefit than wealthier households from the use of wildlife resources excluding wildlife understates the relative contribution of environmental resources while at the same time overstating the relative contribution of farm and wage income wildlife income alone accounts for about a 5 5 reduction in the proportion of people living below the poverty line furthermore wildlife income has an equalizing effect bringing about a 5 4 reduction in measured inequality regression analysis suggests that the likelihood of belonging to a wealthier category of income increases with an increase in environmental income as expected household wealth significantly and positively affects environmental income generated by households this seems to suggest that wildlife based land reform also needs to empower poor households in the area of capital accumulation while imposing restraints on the use of capital investments by well off households to harvest wildlife

why democracies produce efficient results by applying the standard tools of microeconomic analysis i argue that democratic markets work as well as economic markets in particular i show that previous work has greatly exaggerated the existence of principal agent and informational problems in electoral markets and has drawn incorrect conclusions

blame game politics in a coalition government abstract delays in the adoption of reforms is an important question in political economics this paper explores this issue in the context of a representative democracy where the government is a coalition and citizens observe neither the decision making process nor politicians preferences for a reform we show that a coalition member who favors a reform may nonetheless choose to veto its adoption thus delaying it until after the next election and let his coalition partners share the blame for the non adoption we refer to this strategy as blame game politics we then identify three reasons for a politician to play the blame game one is to make an issue salient in the next election a second reason is to avoid a split in his electorate which is accomplished by hiding his stance on an issue a third reason is to enhance bargaining power during the formation of the next government

forest clearing in rural livelihoods household level global comparative evidence summary this paper examines the factors that influence rural household decisions to clear forestland we use a large dataset comprising 7172 households from 24 developing countries twenty seven percent of sampled households had converted forest to agriculture during the previous 12 months clearing on average 1 21 ha male headed households with abundance of male labor living in recently settled places with high forest cover unsurprisingly tended to clear more but regional peculiarities abounded households with medium to high asset holdings and higher market orientation were more likely to clear forest than the poorest and market isolated households questioning popular policy narratives about poverty driven forest clearing

a cross country comparison of rural income generating activities summary this paper uses a newly constructed cross country database composed of comparable income aggregates to examine the full range of income generating activities carried out by rural households the analysis paints a clear picture of multiple activities across rural space in countries on all four continents though less so in the included african countries for most countries the largest share of income stems from off farm activities and the largest share of households has diversified sources of income diversification not specialization is the norm nevertheless agricultural sources of income remain critically important for rural livelihoods in all countries

nonfarm income diversification and household livelihood strategies in rural africa concepts dynamics and policy implications abstract asset activity and income diversification lie at the heart of livelihood strategies in rural africa this paper introduces a special issue on the topic income diversification and livelihoods in rural africa cause and consequence of change we concentrate on core conceptual issues that bedevil the literature on rural income diversification and the policy implications of the empirical evidence presented in this special issue

an economic model of representative democracy this paper develops an approach to the study of democratic policy making where politicians are selected by the people from those citizens who present themselves as candidates for public office the approach has a number of attractive features first it is a conceptualization of a pure form of representative democracy in which government is by as well as of the people second the model is analytically tractable being able to handle multidimensional issue and policy spaces very naturally third it provides a vehicle for answering normative questions about the performance of representative democracy

politicians as experts electoral control and fiscal restraints we propose an argument for fiscal restraints that is based on the premise that the services of politicians are credence goods politicians are experts who specialize in observing the true state of the economy budget maximizing politicians are better informed than the electorate about the level of public spending necessary to manage public affairs voters who are able to observe the size of the budget but not the necessary level of spending affect the government s spending behavior via electoral control a fiscal restraint limits the maximum spending a government can choose we identify conditions under which such a fiscal restraint improves voter welfare and discuss the role of the political opposition as a second expert in situations in which the state of the economy requires a level of spending which exceeds the fiscal restraint

on the efficiency of equilibria in a legislative bargaining model with particularistic and collective goods this study analyzes the efficiency of equilibria in a multilateral bargaining game in which a legislature divides its budget among collective and particularistic goods in order to disentangle the causes of inefficiency we extend the model of volden and wiseman am polit sci rev 101 79 92 2007 by considering quasi linear utility functions and consensus requirements ranging from simple majority to unanimity although unanimous agreements can be reached under weaker consensus requirements we show that pareto inefficiency is associated with non unanimous consent we also study how i the endogenous selection of the legislature s size or ii a sequential choice of collective and particularistic spending eliminates or attenuates the inefficiency problem

electoral competition and politician turnover abstract in this paper we analyze the selection by opportunistic parties of the candidates who run for election we consider a setting with incomplete but symmetric information about the candidates abilities in which electoral campaigns provide voters with additional information about candidates parties care only about selecting an appropriate candidate to win the election while voters elect the best candidate conditional on their information we first argue that in order to defeat an established very good candidate of its rival a party may favor a new candidate with highly uncertain ability rather than an established good candidate next we establish that the discrepancy between the objective of parties and the objective of the electorate leads to inefficient conservatism in the selection of candidates i e each party keeps its incumbents too often from the voters viewpoint

evaluation of biodiversity policy instruments what works and what doesn t w e review and confirm the claim that credible evaluations of common conservation instru ments continue to be rare the limited set of rigorous studies suggests that protected areas cause modest reductions in deforestation however the evidence base for payments for ecosystem services decentralization policies and other interventions is much weaker thus we renew our urgent call for more evaluations from many more biodiversity relevant locations specifically we call for a programme of research conservation evaluation 2 0 that seeks to measure how programme impacts vary by socio political and bio physical context to track economic and environmental impacts jointly to iden tify spatial spillover effects to untargeted areas and to use theories of change to characterize causal mechanisms that can guide the collection of data and the interpretation of results only then can we usefully contribute to the debate over how to protect biodiversity in developing countries

land use and land use changes in life cycle assessment green modelling or black boxing the assessment of land uses and land use changes luluc impacts has become increasingly complex sophisticated modelling tools such as life cycle assessment lca are employed to capture both direct and indirect damages however quantitative assessments are often incomplete dominated by environmental aspects land uses are a multidisciplinary matter and environmental and sustainable development policies intertwine yet lcas mostly focus on environmental impacts excluding socioeconomic implications of land occupation this paper investigates the limitations of current luluc modelling practices in lca common lca assumptions harbor value choices reflect a post positivist epistemology that are often non transparent to e g policymakers they particularly influence the definition of the functional unit the reference system and system boundaries among other lca methodological choices consequently results informing land policies may be biased towards determined development strategies or hide indirect effects and socioeconomic damages caused by large scale land acquisitions such as violation of tenure rights speculation and displacement quantitative assessments of luluc impacts are certainly useful but should holistically encompass both direct and indirect impacts concerning the environmental and the social science dimension of luluc an epistemological shift towards a dialectic approach would facilitate the integration of multiple tools and methods and a critical interpretation of results

the economic lives of the poor in what turned out to be a rhetorical master move the 1990 world development report from the world bank defined the extremely poor people of the world as those who are currently living on no more than 1 per day per person measured at the 1985 purchasing power parity ppp exchange rate in 1993 the poverty line was updated to 1 08 per person per day at the 1993 ppp exchange rate which is the line we use in this paper poverty lines have always existed indeed 1 per day was chosen in part because of its proximity to the poverty lines used by many poor countries 1 however the 1 a day poverty line has come to dominate the conversations about poverty to a remarkable extent

on the form of transfers to special interests an important question in political economy concerns the form of transfers to special interests the chicago view is that political competition leads politicians to make such transfers efficiently the virginia position is that lack of information on the part of voters leads politicians to favor inefficient sneaky methods of redistribution this paper analyzes the form of transfers in a model of political competition in which politicians have incentives to make transfers to special interests it shows that when voters have imperfect information about both the effects of policy and the predispositions of politicians inefficient methods of redistribution may be employed

redistributive politics and economic efficiency the political process often compensates the losers from technical change or international competition in an economically inefficient way namely by subsidizing or protecting declining industries instead of encouraging the movement of resources to other more productive uses we find that a dynamic inconsistency in the game of redistributive politics contributes to this outcome to achieve economically efficient outcomes it is necessary that those making economically inefficient choices not be given offsetting transfers but the political process distributes income on the basis of political characteristics which are in general different from the economic characteristics that are rewarded by the market we identify circumstances in which the inefficient choosers have desirable political characteristics and are therefore immune from threats of having to face the economic consequences of their choices

equilibrium political budget cycles political business cycle theories generally rely on nominal rigidities and voter myopia this paper offers an equilibrium theory that preserves some basic insights from earlier models though with significant refinements the political budget cycle emphasized here is in fiscal policy rather than output and inflation it arises via a multidimensional signal process one can consider the welfare implications of proposals to mitigate the cycle and the effects of altering the electoral structure copyright 1990 by american economic association

shocks income and wealth do they affect the extraction of natural resources by rural households summary this paper examines the effects of household and village level characteristics on environmental reliance and participation in resource extraction decisions unlike previous analyses that used case studies or regional samples i use a nationally representative sample of rural households rounds i and ii of the mexico national rural household survey enhrum econometric results show that participation in resource extraction follows an inverted u shaped relationship with income and that environmental reliance decreases with income beyond income results show that relatively wealthy households in rural mexico are less likely to participate in resource extraction and have lower reliance than those with less wealth there is also clear evidence that natural resources provide some sort of insurance for households that are subjected to negative agricultural shocks

welfare outcomes and the advance of the deforestation frontier in the brazilian amazon summary frontier expansion in the brazilian amazon is often described as boom bust development we critically assess this characterization by mapping and estimating statistical models of welfare as a function of deforestation at the municipal level after controlling for potential confounding variables and spatial autocorrelation estimation results are consistent with a frontier boom generated by exploitation of natural resources followed by a bust during which forests continue to fall but there is no compensating gain in welfare however average per capita welfare increases again with deforestation at very high levels this second turning point in average welfare along with the strong bivariate correlation between deforestation and municipal gdp km2 may encourage local leaders to equate deforestation with development this confirms the need for international incentive payments for global public goods such as biodiversity and carbon sequestration that are provided by the amazon forest

how cynical can an incumbent be strategic policy in a model of government spending abstract when parties with different preferences compete for election strategic manipulation of state variables for electoral purposes can occur even with rational voters this paper presents a model in which government resources can be used productivity for the benefit of everybody or unproductively for the benefit of the ruling party s constituency a government more inclined to unproductive spending may choose to collect public resources inefficiently in order to produce the importance of spending decisions in the election the model highlights the strategic role of policy decisions that affect incentives and constraints faced by future governments and their impact on election results

efficiency and profitability in exotic bets the efficiency and profitability of exotic racetrack bets such as exactas and daily doubles are examined efficiency is understood to mean that above average returns cannot be made in the long run once risk is appropriately controlled for the markets in question are found not to be efficient the inefficiencies however are insufficient to permit simple strategies to show a consistent profit some evidence of smart money exists in that holders of inside information may bet on exactas rather than equivalent standard bets in order to avoid signaling their actions to the betting public copyright 1987 by the review of economic studies limited

economic and biological conditions influence the sustainability of harvest of wild animals and plants in developing countries abstract promoting sustainable use of wild animals and plants is a global target in biodiversity conservation however the role of wild harvest as a conservation tool remains controversial when unsustainable wild harvesting leads to population decline or even extirpation of species when sustainable it has the potential to promote win win solutions for conservation and development we reviewed 87 cases of wild harvesting of vertebrates and plants in developing countries to understand the conditions influencing its sustainability we used random forest and logistic regression to find the most important predictors among a range of biological demographic and economic indicators and to detail the predicted effects on sustainability of harvest species resilience gdp per capita and poverty headcount ratio were the strongest predictors of sustainability species resilience was positively related to sustainability of harvest whereas gdp per capita and poverty ratio were negatively related harvesting a species with low resilience is more likely to be unsustainable when harvested in a middle income high poverty ratio country than in a low income low poverty ratio country this study highlights the risks of wild population harvest under the challenging economic conditions inherent in developing countries and visualize where efforts are most needed to achieve sustainable harvest

the political economy of tax coordination as a bargaining game between bureaucrats and politicians in the public finance literature the view prevails that taxcompetition among countries gives rise to an underprovision ofpublic goods and that coordinated tax increases are thereforedesirable public choice arguments in contrast suggest thattax coordination may not be in the interest of thetaxpayers citizens because imperfections of the politicalprocess political distortions may lead to a waste of taxmoney according to this view tax competition is a desirablecheck on the power to tax whereas tax coordination would onlyrelax the budget constraint of an inefficient public sector the present paper integrates the underprovision argument andthe public choice view into a common theoretical framework the government is assumed to consist of politicians andbureaucrats with diverging interests fiscal policy ismodelled as the outcome of a bargaining game between thebureaucrats and the politicians it turns out that coordinatedtax increases always raise the provision of public goods butalso increase the cost of political distortions the effect onthe welfare of the representative citizen may be positive ofnegative depending in particular on the distribution ofbargaining power between bureaucrats and politicians

environmental and market determinants of economic orientation among rain forest communities evidence from a large scale survey in western amazonia abstract large scale surveys of rain forest livelihoods open up new possibilities for understanding the role of forest resources in the well being of forest peoples but often overlook the factors that influence the diverse economic foci of forest based communities in this paper we describe the peruvian amazon rural livelihoods and poverty parlap project which seeks to identify the factors that contribute to rural poverty among indigenous and folk peoples through the first large scale survey conducted in this data poor region our paper draws upon a community census undertaken in four major river sub basins in eastern peru n 919 communities and asks the question how do environmental and market factors influence the economic orientation of rain forest communities recognizing that standard approaches that explain activity choice by current conditions are problematic because of potential endogeneity we propose a new analytical framework that examines how historical initial conditions determine current conditions and thus current economic activities our approach produces a rich array of results that point to the importance of initial environmental endowments and market access of communities in shaping their economic orientation interacting in different ways depending on the key natural resource upon which they rely

incumbent performance and electoral control in the pure theory of electoral competition citizens compare the platforms of the candidates and vote for the one whose platform is preferred candidate strategies are identified with promises about future performance in office models of this sort have been developed in both static mckelvey 1975 and dynamic kramer 1977 i settings and all appear to have the property that if the set of alternatives is large enough in some sense equilibrium platforms rarely exist but these models have another feature that is quite as disturbing as their instability in the static setting discussed by mckelvey little attention is paid to the possibility that once in office the politician s preferences may diverge from those of his constituents and that he may therefore choose policies at variance from his platform instead it is simply assumed that promises will be kept whether or not such behavior is congruent with the interest of the officeholder it is sometimes argued that an enforcement mechanism may exist to discipline politicians for failing to keep promises but without a specification of the mechanism it is not obvious that it would be in the interests of the

efficiency of the market for racetrack betting many racetrack bettors have systems since the track is a market similar in many ways to the stock market one would expect that the basic strategies would be either fundamental or technical in nature fundamental strategies utilize past data available from racing forms special sources etc to handicap races the investor then wagers on one or more horses whose probability of winning exceeds that determined by the odds by an amount sufficient to overcome the track take technical systems require less information and only utilize current betting data they attempt to find inefficiencies in the market and bet on such overlays when they have positive expected value previous studies and our data confirm that for win bets these inefficiencies which exist for underbet favorites and overbet longshots are not sufficiently great to result in positive profits this paper describes a technical system for place and show betting for which it appears to be possible to make substantial positive profits and thus to demonstrate market inefficiency in a weak form sense estimated theoretical probabilities of all possible finishes are compared with the actual amounts bet to determine profitable betting situations since the amount bet influences the odds and theory suggests that to maximize long run growth a logarithmic utility function is appropriate the resulting model is a nonlinear program side calculations generally reduce the number of possible bets in any one race to three or less hence the actual optimization is quite simple the system was tested on data from santa anita and exhibition park using exact and approximate solutions that make the system operational at the track given the limited time available for placing bets and found to produce substantial positive profits a model is developed to demonstrate that the profits are not due to chance but rather to proper identification of market inefficiencies

why a stubborn conservative would run a deficit policy with time inconsistent preferences a conservative government in favor of a low level of public consumption knows that it will be replaced by a government in favor of a larger level of public consumption we show that the resulting level of public consumption is in between the levels the two governments would choose if each were in power both in the present and in the future in particular we show that if the conservative government is more stubborn in a particular sense than the succeeding government the conservative government will borrow more than it would had it remained in power in the future

the power to tax analytical foundations of a fiscal constitution preface 1 taxation in constitutional perspective 2 natural government a model of leviathan 3 constraints on base and rate structure 4 the taxation of commodities 5 taxation through time income taxes capital taxes and public debt 6 money creation and taxation 7 the disposition of public revenues 8 the domain of politics 9 open economy federalism and taxing authority 10 toward authentic tax reform prospects and prescriptions epilogue notes selected bibliography index

environmental income and rural livelihoods a global comparative analysis this paper presents results from a comparative analysis of environmental income from approximately 8000 households in 24 developing countries collected by research partners in cifor s poverty environment network pen environmental income accounts for 28 of total household income 77 of which comes from natural forests environmental income shares are higher for low income households but differences across income quintiles are less pronounced than previously thought the poor rely more heavily on subsistence products such as wood fuels and wild foods and on products harvested from natural areas other than forests in absolute terms environmental income is approximately five times higher in the highest income quintile compared to the two lowest quintiles

do horses like vodka and sponging on market manipulation and the favourite longshot bias one of the most striking empirical patterns of horse race betting markets is the favourite longshot bias bets on favourites have dramatically higher expected returns than bets on longshots the literature offers a couple of different though not mutually exclusive explanations based on risk preferences and probability perceptions this article adds a new possible explanation the favourite longshot bias may be the rational answer of an honest audience to a simple but highly lucrative cheating opportunity of insiders we provide anecdotal evidence that the type of cheating we model here really takes place what is more by employing a large scale german data set we are able to demonstrate that the pattern of the favourite longshot bias changes as the opportunity of cheating vanishes the changes we observe are in accord with the cheating model we suggest

forest based livelihoods strategies conditioned by market remoteness and forest proximity in jharkhand india summary the study uses a novel method to investigate the role of forest proximity market remoteness and caste in determining household income especially forest income in an underdeveloped region of india a high 50 proportion of total income is earned in cash forest products contribute substantially to total income with fuelwood as the most important forest product proximity to forest is associated with higher forest incomes as expected but remote villages do not have higher forest incomes or lower cash incomes than less remote villages higher off farm income is associated with better road access and higher income households generally 2014 published by elsevier ltd this is an open access article under the cc by nc sa license http creativecommons org licenses bync sa 3 0

forest loss and economic inequality in the solomon islands using small area estimation to link environmental change to welfare outcomes abstract to study welfare effects of environmental change data from household surveys may be linked to remote sensing data using spatial aggregation to link risks ecological fallacy since surveys are usually representative for areas larger than the spatial scale of decision making units this paper uses survey to census imputation to estimate welfare indicators for small areas to study the effect of deforestation on subsequent inequality in the rural solomon islands this country depends on logging for almost half of foreign exchange and one sixth of government revenue and most forested land remains under customary ownership a sharp increase in log exports to seven times the sustainable yield and a major shift in export destinations as other countries withdrew from the tropical log trade represents an exogenous shock that helps to identify effects of deforestation on inequality rather than the reverse relationship a standard deviation increase in the rate of forest loss over 2000 to 2012 raises the gini index of inequality in 2013 by one third of a standard deviation mean incomes and poverty rates are also higher implying that deforestation makes some households richer while others become poorer these precisely estimated effects would be obscured using more spatially aggregated data

the survival of the welfare state this paper provides an analytical characterization of markov perfect equilibria in a model with repeated voting where agents vote over distortionary income redistribution a key result is that the future constituency for redistributive policies depends positively on current redistribution since this affects both private investments and the future distribution of voters the model features multiple equilibria in some equilibria positive redistribution persists forever in other equilibria even a majority of beneficiaries of redistribution vote strategically so as to induce the end of the welfare state next period skill biased technical change makes the survival of the welfare state less likely

income strategies among rural households in mexico the role of off farm activities abstract off farm activities generate on average more than half of farm households incomes in the mexican ejido sector participation in these activities helps reduce poverty and contributes to greater equality in the distribution of income this paper analyzes the determinants of access to off farm sources of income across households we find that education plays a major role in accessing better remunerated nonagricultural employment adults of indigenous ethnic origin suffer from an educational lag and have less access to off farm nonagricultural employment than non indigenous adults at identical educational levels the regional availability of off farm employment strongly affects participation in addition women are differentially limited by distance to urban centers in their ability to gain off farm employment

are forest incomes sustainable firewood and timber extraction and productivity in community managed forests in nepal summary lack of combined forest productivity and income studies means there is scant evidence for the sustainability of rural household level forest incomes in developing countries this study examines levels and patterns of forest increment wood product extraction and household level incomes in three community managed forests in nepal using data from 240 permanent sample plots and a structured household survey conducted in 2006 and 2009 n 507 and 558 respectively we find that analyses of sustainability need to recognize the complexity of forest stand utilization and that there is considerable scope by altering how existing local forest management rules are implemented for increasing rural household forest incomes while keeping harvesting levels sustainable

poverty alleviation and tropical forests what scope for synergies abstract this paper explores the state of the art of the two way causal links between poverty alleviation and natural tropical forests microimpacts of rising poverty can increase or slow forest loss at the macrolevel poverty also has an ambiguous effect but it is probable that higher income stimulates forest loss by raising demand for agricultural land the second question is what potential forest led development has to alleviate a country s poverty in terms of producer benefits consumer benefits and economy wide employment natural forests widely serve as safety nets for the rural poor but it proves difficult to raise producer benefits significantly urban consumer benefits from forest an important target for pro poor agricultural innovation are limited and seldom favor the poor absorption of poor unskilled labor is low in forestry which tends to be capital intensive natural forests may thus lack comparative advantage for poverty alleviation there are few win win synergies between natural forests and national poverty reduction which may help to explain why the loss of tropical forests is ongoing this may have important implications for our understanding of sustainable forest development and for the design of both conservation and poverty alleviation strategies

executive control and legislative success the higher legislative success of parliamentary governments relative to presidential governments has been used to argue that legislative success is driven by parliamentary governments superior agenda power or their control of legislative majorities we show that this approach is at odds with some of the empirical regularities across and within political systems we then propose a legislative bargaining model to elucidate this puzzle in the model the policies of a confidence dependent parliamentary government enjoy more predictable support from governing coalition members because their short term policy goals are less important than the government s survival coalition support is stronger when the government has more agenda power and is weaker with a larger ruling coalition we explore the empirical implications of these findings and their consequences for the comparative study of legislative institutions

revealing weak form inefficiency in a market for state contingent claims the importance of market ecology modelling procedures and investment strategies this paper examines the degree to which current prices discount historical prices in a market for state contingent claims conditional logit analysis is employed to predict winning probabilities based on market prices in a betting market these are used together with various wagering strategies to yield substantial abnormal returns consequently in contrast to the existing literature the results suggest that the market is not weak form efficient the disparity with previous efficiency studies highlights the importance of considering market ecology and of adopting an appropriate modelling procedure and investment strategy to fully exploit information contained in market prices

sources of inefficiency in a representative democracy a dynamic analysis this paper studies the efficiency of policy choice in representative democracies it extends the citizen candidate model of democratic policy making to a dynamic environment equilibrium policy choices are shown to be efficient in the sense that in each period conditional on future policies being selected through the democratic process there exists no alternative current policy choices which can raise the expected utilities of all citizens however policies that would be declared efficient by standard economic criteria are not necessarily adopted in political equilibrium the paper argues that these divergencies are legitimately viewed as politicalfailures

empirical constitutional economics onward and upward abstract empirical constitutional economics has made a huge leap forward over the last decade interesting insights into the effects of constitutions have been discovered rather than summarizing the state of the art this paper identifies some of the current shortcomings and proposes a number of extensions it calls for recognizing additional constitutional institutions as explanatory variables as well as the incorporation of additional dependent variables its major emphasis is however on calling for the next logical step in this field namely to endogenize constitutions

arbitrage strategies for cross track betting on major horse races cross track betting permits bettors to place their local tracks on a race being run at another track since each track operates a separate betting pool the odds can vary across the tracks the data suggest that the odds vary and they often vary dramatically allowing arbitrage opportunities this article employs a risk free arbitrage model to demonstrate the cross track inefficiency and recommends an optimal capital growth model for exploiting it a simple method is proposed for a single bettor at a single cross track the results indicate that these methods would have worked well in practice on a number of recent triple crown races copyright 1990 by the university of chicago

safety nets gap filling and forests a global comparative perspective summary in the forest livelihoods literature forests are widely perceived to provide both common safety nets to shocks and resources for seasonal gap filling we use a large global comparative dataset to test these responses we find households rank forest extraction responses to shocks lower than most common alternatives for seasonal gap filling forest extraction also has limited importance the minority of households using forests for coping is asset poor and lives in villages specialized on forests in particular timber extraction overall forest resources may be less important as a buffer between agricultural harvests and in times of unforeseen hardship than has been found in many case studies 2014 published by elsevier ltd

incentive contracts and elections for politicians with multi task problems abstract we consider a model with a politician facing a multi task problem while in office the reelection mechanism distorts the allocation of effort in favor of tasks whose outcomes can be measured more precisely than others we show that a combination of elections and incentive contracts can alleviate this inefficiency the incentive contract does not require direct information about the performance of the politician and is self financing across terms

combining income and assets measures to include the transitory nature of poverty in assessments of forest dependence evidence from the democratic republic of congo abstract a considerable amount of research on poverty environment relations in developing countries under the cifor pen initiative focuses on household income generation from forests using total annual income as a measure of poverty however income alone produces a static picture in a snapshot of time while poverty is a dynamic state that can be a transitory phenomenon using income only also fails to consider that households can liquidate asset to overcome income shocks here we show that using asset quintiles measured by value of assets produce a distinctly different pattern than the commonly observed negative relation between income and forest dependence we then present an approach enabling categorization of households as chronic or transient poor transient rich and rich providing a more nuanced picture than that provided by cifor pen studies so far the validity of groupings is tested by comparing household characteristics and exposure to shocks we then show that the chronic poor are most reliant on forest income while the transient poor consume a higher share of harvested forest products the transient rich have higher agricultural productivity and absolute forest income rich households relies more on business based on the results we suggest recommendations for improving future studies on poverty environment relations

political foundations of the resource curse in this paper we argue that the political incentives that resource endowments generate are the key to understanding whether or not they are a curse we show 1 politicians tend to over extract natural resources relative to the efficient extraction path because they discount the future too much and 2 resource booms improve the efficiency of the extraction path however 3 resource booms by raising the value of being in power and by providing politicians with more resources which they can use to influence the outcome of elections increase resource misallocation in the rest of the economy 4 the overall impact of resource booms on the economy depends critically on institutions since these determine the extent to which political incentives map into policy outcomes countries with institutions that promote accountability and state competence will tend to benefit from resource booms since these institutions ameliorate the perverse political incentives that such booms create countries without such institutions however may suffer from a resource curse

forests livelihoods and conservation broadening the empirical base summary more than 10 000 years after the agricultural revolution started millions of rural smallholders across the developing world may still derive as much income from foraging forests and wildlands as from cultivating crops these steady environmental income flows come often from public forests and are extracted by men and women alike however inflexible supplies from nature the physical hardship of harvesting and commonly low returns limit their role as safety nets and pathways out of poverty while their harvesting does not preclude the ongoing conversion of wildlands to agriculture privileged access to high quality environmental resources can become a strong local conservation motive

the making of economic policy a transaction cost politics perspective economic policymaking as a political process the normative approach to policy analysis the positive view of political economy a synthesis the policy process in real time a theme transaction costs the transaction cost politics framework political outcomes and economic efficiency transaction cost analysis in politics mechanisms to cope with transaction costs in politics national differences two case studies to illustrate transaction cost politics tax and expenditure reform in the united states the gatt and national trade politics some reflections and suggestions some lessons for the policy process the role of the economist concluding comments appendix multiprincipal multitask agencies

voting on the budget deficit this paper analyzes a model in which a group of rational individuals votes over the composition and time profile of public spending all voters agree that a balanced budget is ex ante optimal however if there is disagreement between current and future majorities a balanced budget is not a political equilibrium under majority rule under certain conditions a majority of the voters favors a budget deficit and the equilibrium deficit is larger the greater is the polarization among voters copyright 1990 by american economic association

can smallholders engage in tree plantations an entitlements analysis from vietnam tree plantations have expanded rapidly at the global scale this paper examines the possibilities for smallholders to engage in plantations as a potential means for poverty alleviation the paper analyzes the possibilities through an empirical study of household tree growing in rural vietnam with a focus on differences in the capacities of households to gain land endowments and translate endowments into tree entitlements employing heckman regression models and qualitative institutional analyses the paper finds that better off households are more likely to possess forestland grow trees and invest in plantations than poor ones in addition land plantations and investment tend to be larger for the better off than the poor better off households are in a better position to engage in tree plantations due to among other factors the institutional mechanisms differentiating household access to land and finance

hierarchical accountability in government abstract this paper studies a setting where a relatively uninformed voter holds a policymaker accountable through an informed intermediary in equilibrium the voter uses the intermediary to insulate the policymaker from pandering incentives when the voter s policy expertise is low or the policymaker s congruence is high the voter can thus enjoy the benefits of bureaucratic expertise without forfeiting electoral responsiveness we examine the model s predictions using u s city level data and find that hierarchically accountable managers reduce popular city employment and adjust it more flexibly than electorally accountable mayors the estimated incentive effects are smaller in cities with high voter expertise and larger during election years and are robust to instrumentation by precipitation shocks that influenced early 20th century manager government adoptions for reasons obsolete today

quantifying the economic contribution of wild food harvests to rural livelihoods a global comparative analysis this paper empirically quantifies and analyses i the economic contribution of wild foods to rural households ii the household socio economic demographic and geographical correlates of wild food income and iii how wild foods can be better incorporated into integrative food security policies we used household income data from 7975 households in 24 developing countries across three continents collected by the poverty environment network pen we found 77 of households to be engaged in wild food collection from forest and non forest environments even though the share of wild food income in total household income was on average only 4 poorer households and households experiencing shocks derived higher income shares from wild foods state land is the main source of forest derived wild food income while private lands are most important for non forest wild food income considerable regional variation in determinants and the direction of significant relationships indicate there is no one size fits all approach to integrating wild foods into food and forest policies however our results reveal potential to increase household food security by integrating wild foods into national food policies in more customized ways

do the right thing incentives for policy selection in presidential and parliamentary systems constitutional structures shape politicians behaviour and hence policy outcomes through the dierent incentives schemes they generate in this paper we analyze these mechanisms in parliamentary and presidential systems the comparison is carried out by analyzing how the two systems may select the ecient policy in presence of asymmetric information presidential and parliamentary systems dier in that the policy proposed by the executive in the parliamentary system is condence depende nt and observable the main ndings suggest that the parliament responds better to the incentive scheme in the presidential system due to the lower uncertainty legislators face over their term limit however the parliamentary system generates a more ecient behavior of the executive due to selection and disciplining eects

producing woodfuel for urban centers in the democratic republic of congo a path out of poverty for rural households woodfuel is a renewable energy source with good potential for climate change mitigation in the democratic republic of congo drc the sector employs over 300 000 people for the supply of kinshasa alone but the benefits to the poor are often unknown this paper analyzes the contribution of commercial woodfuel production to livelihoods and poverty reduction in the drc woodfuel revenues especially those of charcoal contribute substantially to producers household income ranging from 12 for fuelwood producers around kisangani to 75 for charcoal producers around kinshasa it supports basic needs and investments in other livelihood activities for 82 of charcoal producers and 65 of fuelwood producers which helps to reduce poverty the contribution of woodfuel commercialization to poverty reduction should be part of energy and forestry policies

a model of political competition with citizen candidates the authors develop a model of electoral competition in which citizens choose whether or not to run as candidates a winner implements her favorite policy the equilibrium number of candidates depends negatively on the cost of running and positively on the benefits of winning for some parameter values all equilibria under plurality rule have exactly two candidates whose positions are distinct two candidate elections are more likely under plurality rule than under a runoff system the candidates positions are less differentiated under a runoff system there exist equilibria under both systems in which some candidates have no chance of winning

empirical regularities in the poverty environment relationship of rural households evidence from zimbabwe abstract analysis of rural households and environmental resources is beset by inadequate data especially in africa using purpose collected panel data from zimbabwe we demonstrate seven empirical regularities in the rural poverty environment relationship most important environmental resources make a significant contribution to average rural incomes poorer households also depend heavily on these resources which contribute c 40 to their incomes richer households however use greater quantities of environmental resources in total finally considerable differentiation exists in the economic characteristics of environmental goods these results demonstrate the considerable economic significance of environmental resources to rural households surveys which ignore them miscalculate rural incomes and welfare

public policies pressure groups and dead weight costs abstract this paper presents a model of competition among special interest groups for political influence each active group exerts pressure to affect its taxes and subsidies where activities of different groups are related by the equality between total tax collections and total tax subsidies the dead weight costs and benefits of taxes and subsidies play a major role in our model an increase in the dead weight cost of taxation encourages pressure by taxpayers while an increase in the dead weight costs of subsidies discourages pressure by recipients various applications of the analysis are discussed