monetary union in west africa and business cycles synchronicity new evidence in the light of the initiative of the west african monetary zone wamz to introduce a common currency by 2020 this paper investigates the intricacies of the business cycles synchronicity among the six countries given i the rising importance of trade and cooperation with china ii the consideration of the euro as a potential anchor currency and a vehicle for trade with the eurozone and iii the importance of nigeria as the largest country of the group and the main supplier of oil we investigate the relative importance of these three major players in having their business cycles linked with the group in addition we investigate the underlying determinants of the business cycles synchronicity among the wamz countries on a pairwise basis results show a clear dominance of china s business cycle synchronicity with the wamz over europe s and nigeria s trade integration emerges as the key underlying factor of the common cycle observed

modelling macroeconomic shocks in the cfa franc zone abstract in this paper we modify the method of blanchard and quah american economic review 79 1989 655 in order to estimate a structural var model appropriate for a small open economy in this way we identify shocks to output and prices in the members of the two monetary unions that make up the african cfa franc zone the costs of monetary union membership will depend on the extent to which price and output shocks are correlated across countries and the degree of similarity in the long run effects of the shocks on the macroeconomy the policy conclusions depend on the relative importance of different macroeconomic variables to policymakers and the speed with which a policymaker is able to respond to a shock

reasons for remitting this article presents a set of reflections on what gives rise to remittances which constitute a major part of the impact of migration on economic development in the migrants own countries the collage of reasons presented serves to illustrate that remittance behaviour is the outcome of an intricate interplay between the preferences and interests of migrants and their families

monetary union in west africa who might gain who might lose and why we develop a model in which governments financing needs exceed the socially optimal level because public resources are diverted to serve the narrow interests of the group in power from a social welfare perspective this results in undue pressure on the central bank to extract seigniorage monetary policy also suffers from an expansive bias owing to the authorities inability to precommit to price stability such a conjecture about the fiscal monetary policy mix appears quite relevant in africa with deep implications for the incentives of fiscally heterogeneous countries to form a currency union we calibrate the model to data for west africa and use it to assess proposed ecowas monetary unions fiscal heterogeneity indeed appears crit ical in shaping regional currency blocs that would be mutually beneficial for all their members in particular nigeria s membership in the configurations currently envisaged would not be in the interests of other ecowas countries unless it were accompanied by effective containment on nigeria s financing needs jel classification e58 e61 e62 f33 union monetaire en afrique de l ouest qui pourrait gagner qui pourrait perdre et pourquoi les auteurs developpent un modele dans lequel les besoins financiers des gouvernements depassent le niveau socialement optimal parce que des ressources pub liques sont detournees de maniere aservir les interets etroits du groupe au pouvoir dans une perspective de bien etre social cela entraine des pressions indues sur la banque centrale pour qu elle extraie du seigneuriage la politique monetaire souffre

macro economic shocks the erm and tri polarity the authors use the comparative behavior of real output growth and inflation behavior of members and nonmembers of the exchange rate mechanism erm to analyze the importance of erm membership on macroeconomic performance an econometric procedure for identifying temporary and permanent shocks to output is proposed and executed the results confirm that the erm has acted as a vehicle for macropolicy coordination between members the authors also investigate several issues relating to the hypothesis of global economic tri polarity between the united states germany and japan copyright 1995 by mit press

the dynamic effects of aggregate demand and supply disturbances we interpret fluctuations in gnp and unemployment as due to two types of disturbances disturbances that have a permanent effect on output and disturbances that do not we interpret the first as supply disturbances the second as demand disturbances demand disturbances have a hump shaped mirror image effect on output and unemployment the effect of supply disturbances on output increases steadily over time peaking after two years and reaching a plateau after five years

economic obstacles to expanding intra african trade abstract the paper extends the gravity model to examine the impact of infrastructure availability economic policy and internal political tensions on intra african trade to highlight specific obstacles hampering such a trade bilateral trade between africa and developed countries is also analyzed the results show that besides traditional gravity variables poor infrastructure economic policy mismanagement and internal political tensions have a negative impact on trade among african countries except for political tensions the identified obstacles are specific to intra african trade since they have no impact on african trade with developed countries

altruism and beyond an economic analysis of transfers and exchanges within families and groups 1 introduction 2 altruism transfers and wellbeing 3 the timing of intergenerational transfers an implication 4 an exchange implication of transfers the demonstration effect 5 transfers by migrants a strategic motive for remittances 6 exchange with recognition costs an explanation of migrants performance 7 intrafamilial transfers and exchanges forming and sustaining altruism

hard or soft pegs choice of exchange rate regime and trade in africa summary this paper revisits the link between fixed exchange rate regimes and trade in the context of africa s exchange rate arrangements differentiating the effects of hard pegs currency unions from conventional soft pegs using a novel dataset of exchange rate regime classification the paper augments the gravity model of bilateral trade flows with measures of currency unions and conventional pegged arrangements and benchmarks africa s experience against the rest of the world we find that in both samples currency unions and pegs increase trade vis a vis more flexible exchange rate arrangements through channels in addition to reduced exchange rate volatility however the effect is almost twice as large for africa in addition the trade generating effect of pegs is at least as large for africa as that of currency unions suggesting that pegs could present a viable option perhaps an alternative to currency unions to promote trade in the region

motivations to remit evidence from botswana in this article a theory of motivations to send remittances is described and tested with data from botswana altruism is one of the motivations tested and found to be an insufficient explanation for remittances among migrants in botswana a refinement of the model stipulates a modified altruism or enlightened self interest in this model the relationship between the migrant and family is tempered by an implicit understanding of mutual benefit the household strategy may be to encourage some members to migrate as a means of spreading risk and sharing gains the household strategy is similar to an insurance policy where migration is to places where market potential is high the risks incurred might be high the example is given of migration during a drought in botswana migrant remittances were greater in households with more cattle or households with more to lose drought alone was not statistically related to remittances increases in remittances were related to increased levels of education it is suggested that repayment was the motive for parents investment in migrants education migrants gains are identified as the potential for an inheritance the security of channeling investments through a trusted family member and security in having a home to return to it is pointed out that the altruism and family remittances from urban migration were strategies that bridged the simple dynamic of either urban development or rural development impacting on family welfare it is suggested that household models of economy adopt some measure to express the relationship of household wealth to remittances from urban migrants

the emergence of regional business cycle in africa a reality or myth a bayesian dynamic factor model analysis this paper examines the evolution and the underlying forces of the business cycle co movements among seven african a 7 countries over the period 1970 2016 these countries accounted for over 60 of regional gdp have abundant natural resources access to the global capital market and widely viewed as potential drivers of regional or african business cycle we model the national business cycle using real output consumption and investment we employ a dynamic factor model to decompose fluctuations in these macro variables into a regional country specific and idiosyncratic components using bayesian methods we also analyse the relative importance of some notable drivers of business cycle fluctuations found in the literature we find that the idiosyncratic component is dominating cyclical fluctuations in the a 7 countries while country specific and regional factors play a negligible role suggesting the inexistence of a common regional cycle despite deepening intra african trade among the driving variables the terms of trade shocks exert greater influence on the a 7 business cycle while exchange rate movements and changes in money supply explain sizeable fluctuations in consumption and investment in most of the a 7 countries shocks associated with changes in relative domestic oil prices monetary and fiscal policies cause large output fluctuations

consumption smoothing migration and marriage evidence from rural india a significant proportion of migration in low income countries particularly in rural areas is composed of moves by women for the purpose of marriage we seek to explain these mobility patterns by examining marital arrangements among indian households in particular we hypothesize that the marriage of daughters to locationally distant dispersed yet kinship related households is a manifestation of implicit interhousehold contractual arrangements aimed at mitigating income risks and facilitating consumption smoothing in an environment characterized by information costs and spatially covariant risks analysis of longitudinal south indian village data lends support to the hypothesis marriage cum migration contributes significantly to a reduction in the variability of household food consumption farm households afflicted with more variable profits tend to engage in longer distance marriage cum migration the hypothesized and observed marriage cum migration patterns are in dissonance with standard models of marriage or migration that are concerned primarily with search costs and static income gains

benefits from mutual restraint in a multilateral monetary union summary we show that monetary union can enhance price stability for its member countries even if none of them has a long history of stable prices and independent monetary policy as is the case in a number of monetary union initiatives among developing countries the positive effect obtains because the opportunistic objectives of one country s policy makers are kept in check at the union level by other members with disparate objectives we calibrate the model to evaluate the proposed monetary union in the east african community the empirical results show that the mutual restraint on monetary policy is an important determinant of the expected benefit from an eac monetary union

do family ties with those left behind intensify or weaken migrants assimilation strong ties with the home country and with the host country can coexist an altruistic migrant who sends remittances to his family back home assimilates more the more altruistic he is and also more than a non remitting migrant

economics and identity this paper considers how identity a person s sense of self affects economic outcomes we incorporate the psychology and sociology of identity into an economic model of behavior in the utility function we propose identity is associated with different social categories and how people in these categories should behave we then construct a simple game theoretic model showing how identity can affect individual interactions the paper adapts these models to gender discrimination in the workplace the economics of poverty and social exclusion and the household division of labor in each case the inclusion of identity substantively changes conclusions of previous economic analysis

the political economy of the european economic and monetary union political sources of an economic liability emu would be an economic liability a single currency would cause at most small trade and investment gains but would raise average cyclical unemployment and possibly raise inflation perpetuate structural unemployment and increase the risk of protectionism emu is nevertheless being pursued in order to create a political union fundamental disagreements among member states about economic policies foreign and military policies and the sharing of political power are likely to create future intra european conflicts a united europe would be a formidable participant in the twenty first century s global balance of power with uncertain consequences for world stability and peace

on the optimality of a gcc monetary union structural var common trends and common cycles evidence this paper examines the suitability of the proposed monetary union among the members of the gulf cooperation council gcc to do so we identify the underlying structural shocks that these economies are subject to and assess the extent to which the shocks are symmetric additionally we test for common trends and common business cycles among the gcc economies we find that while the transitory demand shocks are typically symmetric the permanent supply shocks are asymmetric furthermore we do not find synchronous long run and short run movements in output despite the progress that has been made in terms of integration our findings indicate that the conditions for forming a gcc monetary union have not as yet been met

improving policy credibility is there a case for african monetary unions abstract this paper analyzes experience with monetary policy in africa focusing on countries that have participated in rule based regional monetary agreements cfa zone east african currency board and rand monetary area we show that african countries have generally lacked the political institutions necessary for governments to commit credibly on an individual basis to financial stability we argue that monetary unions can provide an alternative means of credible commitment to sound macroeconomic policies but only under certain conditions first exit from a union must be made costly by the existence of parallel regional agreements and or links to the financial and technical assistance of industrial countries second governance structures of monetary unions must be designed so as to maximize chances for enforcement of monetary rules and third if a state seeks to break the rules of a union other member governments must actively oppose such attempts

a literature survey on proposed african monetary unions this study provides a survey of recent advances in the literature on proposed african monetary unions the survey comprises about 60 empirical papers published during the past fifteen years four main strands are discussed individually and collectively notably the proposed west african monetary zone wamz east african monetary union eamu southern african monetary union samu and african monetary union amu we observe a number of issues with establishing the feasibility and or desirability of potential monetary unions inter alia variations in choice of variables empirical strategies sampled countries and considered periodicities we address this ambiguity by reviewing studies with scenarios that are consistent with hegelian dialectics and establish selective expansion as the predominant mode of monetary integration some proponents make cases for strong pegs and institutions as viable alternatives to currency unions using cluster analysis disaggregating panels into sub samples and distinguishing shocks from responses in the examination of business cycle synchronisation provide more subtle policy implications we caution that for inquiries using the same theoretical underpinnings variables and methods just by modifying the scope context and periodicity may only contribute to increasing the number of conflicting findings authors should place more emphasis on new perspectives and approaches based on caveats of and lessons from the european monetary union emu and cfa zones

monetary financial and fiscal stability in the east african community ready for a monetary union we examine prospects for a monetary union in the east african community eac by developing a stylised model of policymakers decision problem that allows for uncertain benefits derived from monetary financial and fiscal stability and then calibrating the model for the eac for the period 2003 10 when policymakers properly allow for uncertainty none of the countries wants to pursue a monetary union based on either monetary or financial stability grounds and only rwanda might favour it on fiscal stability grounds we argue that robust institutional arrangements assuring substantial improvements in monetary financial and fiscal stability are needed to compensate

measuring energy poverty focusing on what matters abstract the provision of modern energy services is recognised as a critical foundation for sustainable development and is central to the everyday lives of people effective policies to dramatically expand modern energy access need to be grounded in a robust information base metrics that can be used for comparative purposes and to track progress towards targets therefore represent an essential support tool this paper reviews the relevant literature and discusses the adequacy and applicability of existing instruments to measure energy poverty drawing on those insights it proposes a new composite index to measure energy poverty both the associated methodology and initial results for several african countries are discussed whereas most existing indicators and composite indices focus on assessing the access to energy or the degree of development related to energy our new index the multidimensional energy poverty index mepi focuses on the deprivation of access to modern energy services it captures both the incidence and intensity of energy poverty and provides a new tool to support policy making

the southern african development community suitable for a monetary union abstract this paper investigates whether a monetary union is desirable among the countries of the southern african development community sadc we employ a generalised auto regressive conditional heteroscedasticity garch model to consider the share of the variation in real exchange rates rers vis a vis south africa that can be explained by the divergence in monetary and fiscal policies the results show that monetary integration would substantially eliminate real exchange rate variation due to different monetary policies for some members the study concludes that a monetary union that embraces all sadc members would amass large costs relative to the benefits and hence would not be desirable

is the proposed east african monetary union an optimal currency area a structural vector autoregression analysis summary this paper empirically assesses the suitability of the east african ea countries for a regional monetary union by testing for symmetry of the underlying structural shocks the results indicate that supply and demand shocks are generally asymmetric which does not lend strong support for forming a currency union in the ea region at the moment however the speed and magnitude of adjustment to shocks is similar across the countries therefore further integration of the economies might lead to more favorable conditions for a monetary union although evidence in favor of linking an ea currency to an external anchor is weak such support seems to favor the euro