assessing the effects of wives earnings on family income inequality we argue that the effect of wives earnings can be assessed meaningfully only by comparing the observed distribution of income with a reference distribution the components of the standard decomposition of the gini coefficient have no implicit reference distribution and therefore should not be interpreted as a measure of the effect of an income source on inequality we suggest several intuitive counterfactual reference distributions and illustrate their use with 1979 and 1989 u s data we conclude that wives earnings reduced inequality in that the income distribution would have been less equal in their absence alternative measures of the impact have mixed results

changes in labor force composition and male earnings a production approach models of aggregate production are estimated and used to investigate the effects of changes in labor force composition on the recently observed decline in the earnings of college graduates relative to other workers and on the fall in the earnings of younger workers relative to older workers changes in labor force composition explain substantial proportions of these observed earnings changes the most important compositional change appears to have been the rapid increase in the number of young male college graduates projections outside the sample are consistent with depressed earnings throughout the lifetimes of the large baby boom cohorts especially among college graduates but do not suggest that depressed college graduate earnings are a permanent phenomenon for all birth cohorts

how traders influence their neighbours modelling social evolutionary processes and peer effects in agricultural trade networks abstract marketing channel choices in agricultural trade networks affect the networks overall performance and influence rural livelihoods this study identifies key determinants of these choices among natural rubber traders in indonesia to evaluate four policy scenarios and their potential effects on rural incomes since traders marketing decisions are based on past interactions resulting trade networks are formed in recursive processes and can be understood as complex adaptive systems due to inherent endogeneity in these systems process based approaches such as agent based modelling abm can be effective in understanding them using a self gathered primary dataset from jambi province indonesia we implement and parameterise an abm to simulate the formation of the rubber trading network and analyse the effects on rural livelihoods of four hypothetical policy scenarios improved micro credit availability increased access to education better infrastructure and transportation capacity and market information availability the model is calibrated through a genetic algorithm which maximises the similarity between the simulated network and the actual network observed in the data results indicate that sellers decisions on a buyer are primarily determined by debt obligations and past peer interactions the most influential sellers have a similar level of formal education as their peers and live in close physical proximity results of the policy scenario analysis suggests that policies aimed at reducing sellers dependence on credit from buyers and increasing education are the most effective policies for improving value chains and reducing poverty in the region under consideration

land degradation drought and food security in a less favoured area in the ethiopian highlands a bio economic model with market imperfections abstract this paper presents a bio economic model of andit tid a severely degraded crop livestock farming system with high population density and good market access in the highlands of ethiopia land degradation population growth stagnant technology and drought threaten food security in the area drought or weather risk appears to have increased in recent years the bio economic model is used to analyse the combined effects of land degradation population growth market imperfections and increased risk of drought on household production welfare and food security we find that the indirect effects of drought on household welfare through the impact on crop and livestock prices are larger than the direct production effects of drought provision and adoption of credit for fertiliser although risky in itself may lead to increased grain production and improved household welfare and food security provision of credit may have a negative effect on conservation incentives but this effect may be mitigated by linking a conservation requirement to the provision of credit for fertiliser

are ghettos good or bad spatial separation of racial and ethnic groups may theoretically have positive or negative effects on the economic performance of those groups we examine the effects of segregation on outcomes for blacks in schooling employment and single parenthood we find that blacks in more segregated areas have significantly worse outcomes than blacks in less segregated areas we control for the endogeneity of location choice using instruments based on political factors topographical features and residence before adulthood a one standard deviation decrease in segregation would eliminate one third of the black white differences in most of our outcomes

skill biased technological change and rising wage inequality some problems and puzzles the recent rise in wage inequality is usually attributed to skill biased technical change sbtc associated with new computer technologies we review the evidence for this hypothesis focusing on the implications of sbtc for overall wage inequality and for changes in wage differentials between groups a key problem for the sbtc hypothesis is that wage inequality stabilized in the 1990s despite continuing advances in computer technology sbtc also fails to explain the evolution of other dimensions of wage inequality including the gender and racial wage gaps and the age gradient in the return to education

earnings instability and earnings inequality of males in the united states 1967 1991 although much research has focused on recent increases in annual earnings inequality in the united states the increases could have come from either of two sources the distribution of lifetime earnings could have become more unequal or the receipt of lifetime earnings could have become more unstable based on an analysis of the 1968 92 panel study of income dynamics we find that lifetime earnings inequality increased during the early 1980s and that earnings instability increased during the 1970s we also examine how these trends are related to changes in the distribution of wages and hours and the returns to education

rising u s earnings inequality and family labor supply the covariance structure of intrafamily earnings this paper studies the labor supply contributions to individual and family earnings inequality during the period of rising wage inequality in the early 1980 s working couples have positively correlated labor market outcomes which are almost entirely attributable to permanent factors an intertemporal family labor supply model with this feature is used to estimate labor supply elasticities for husbands of 0 05 and wives of 0 40 this implies that labor supply explains little of the rising annual earnings inequality for married men but over 20 percent of the rise in family inequality and 50 percent of the modest rise in female inequality

the rising instability of u s earnings the inequality of earnings and of family incomes in the united states has increased since the late 1970s autor katz and kearney 2008 this increase in cross sectional inequality has largely been interpreted as a growing disparity in permanent incomes between those with high incomes and those with low incomes however growing inequality could equally well be a result of growing income instability if workers experience increasingly large fluctuations in earnings from year to year this would also increase the measured inequality of earnings from year to year for example if everyone maintained the same level of permanent income but some experienced a 500 increase in their income in the first year and then a reversal to 500 below their permanent incomes in the following year while an equal number experienced the opposite a drop in income followed by an offsetting rise measured inequality would rise though nothing would have happened to the dispersion of permanent incomes while this example is an extreme one it points to the fact that the large rise in earnings inequality between the 1970s and the 1990s could reflect either a rise in disparity of permanent incomes a rise in earnings instability or some portion of both without longitudinal data it is impossible to distinguish between these two very different explanations for increased cross sectional measures of inequality in this paper we provide longitudinal measures that separate changes in income inequality into changes that permanently change income to new levels and those that only reflect transitory change we refer to the latter as changes in income instability and discuss how the instability of individual earnings and family income in the united states has evolved over the last quarter century

the added worker effect the term added worker effect usually refers to a temporary increase in the labor supply of married women whose husbands have become unemployed this paper presents a new approach to the empirical study of the added worker effect which emphasizes the role of employment uncertainty and credit constraints in generating short run participation and employment patterns the estimates are based on employment transition probabilities rather than static measures of labor supply and are used in a dynamic simulation of changes in the employment and participation rates of wives following an exogenous increase in unemployment among their husbands the results show a small but significant added worker effect at least for white families and suggest that the apparent disagreement among previous studies may stem from different approaches to measuring responses to a transitory event such as an unemployment spell

tax reform and automatic stabilization an income tax provides implicit insurance by dampening the variability of disposable income and consumption using an empirical framework derived from the consumption insurance literature and data from the panel study of income dynamics we examine the effect of federal income tax reforms of the 1980 s on automatic stabilization of consumption overall erta and tra86 reduced consumption stability by about 50 percent recently increased eitc generosity restored or enhanced consumption insurance the welfare cost of moving to the post tra86 system is sizable for relatively risk averse households facing large income risk but is much more modest for the typical household jel h21

the effect of cohort size on earnings growth a reexamination of the evidence this study reexamines the effect of cohort size on earnings growth finis welch finds that individuals in larger cohorts experience depressed earnings conditions on entry into the labor market but that their earnings grow at faster rates than in smaller cohorts thus a large portion of the cohort size effect on earnings dissipates after a few years however using data almost identical to those of welch but estimating less restrictive models it is found here that cohort size not only depresses earnings at entry but also seems to slow down early career earnings growth the evidence suggests that earnings ini larger cohorts do not approach normal levels after at brief period in the labor force rather the negative cohort size effect on earnings appears to worsen with experience

neighborhood wealth distributions abstract this paper uses data from the neighborhood clusters sample of the 1989 american housing survey and the panel study of income dynamics and its 1989 wealth supplement to study the distribution of wealth within us residential neighborhoods it uses the bourguignon decomposable inequality index and finds that wealth is more unequally distributed than income and income more than housing wealth at all levels of aggregation that is neighborhoods metropolitan areas regions and the entire us

inequality and growth in the united states why physical and human capital matter we investigate the relationship between economic growth and top income inequality under the influence of human and physical capital accumulation using an annual panel of u s state level data our analysis is based upon the unified framework offered by galor and moav 2004 while the empirics account for cross section dependence parameter heterogeneity and endogeneity in nonstationary series we conclude that changes in inequality do not influence growth neither in the short run nor in the long run in the united states as a whole in the 1929 2013 period our findings are robust to the inclusion of overall income inequality measures these findings provide support for the theoretical prediction of the unified theory of inequality and growth according to which the growth effect of inequality becomes insignificant in the latest stages of economic development that the united states experiences during our period of investigation therefore future policies aiming at moderating the concentration at the upper end of income distribution are not likely to have adverse growth consequences in developed countries such as the united states jel i21 o47 c23

distributive implications of an aging society abstract the paper reviews recent research on the impact of an aging population on the distribution of income after briefly discussing the demographic conditions responsible for population aging a short account is given of demographic trends in the industrialized world in order to disentangle the many potential channels by which an aging society affects the dispersion of income several levels of aggregation are distinguished the paper differentiates between intra and intergenerational issues between direct and indirect demographic inequality effects and between the distribution of current and lifetime income it emphasizes the critical role of age related redistributive tax transfer systems like public pension schemes and health care systems sources of distributional policy conflicts are identified at both the cross section level and the lifetime level of income inequality the institutional design of intergenerational burden sharing individual disincentive reactions shifts in age income profiles related to cohort size and politico economic repercussions are shown to drive the relation between population aging and income distribution in distinct and partially opposite ways

income inequality and class divides in parental investments historic increases in income inequality have coincided with widening class divides in parental investments of money and time in children these widening class gaps are significant because parental investment is one pathway by which advantage is transmitted across generations using over three decades of micro data from the consumer expenditure survey and the american heritage time use survey linked to state year measures of income inequality we test the relationship between income inequality and class gaps in parental investment we find robust evidence of wider class gaps in parental financial investments in children but not parental time investments in children when state level income inequality is higher we explore mechanisms that may drive the relationship between rising income inequality and widening class gaps in parental financial investments in children this relationship is partially explained by the increasing concentration of income at the top of the income distribution in state years with hi

the demographic cycle and optimal schooling choices a model is developed that enables the authors to estimate the effects of demographic cycles on both earnings and schooling the model is tested using data from the 1991 korean occupational wage survey the results indicate that cohorts following large birth cohorts in the cycle choose relatively less formal schooling compared to pre peak cohorts and that post peak cohorts also have lower incomes this result concerning south korea is consistent with findings from previous studies concerning the united states annotation

decomposing trends in income volatility the wild ride at the top and bottom we use 2 year panels from the current population survey to provide a detailed accounting of family income volatility from 1980 to 2009 volatility doubled overall and the increase was most pronounced among the top 1 of the income distribution but in any given year the level of volatility among the bottom 10 exceeds that of the top the increased volatility comes from higher instability of head and spouse earnings other nonlabor income and from reduced covariance between these income sources with the tax system this suggests that current tax policy is less effective in mitigating income shocks than previous decades jel j31 i30

a life cycle analysis of family income distribution the question of whether working wives widen or narrow the income gap between rich and poor families is examined using a life cycle analysis data are from the 1973 u s national survey of family growth and concern 5901 currently married women under 45 years of age the results suggest that the employment of wives tends to reduce inequality particularly among white families but to a different degree at different stages of the family life cycle annotation

dealing with uncertainty in agent based simulation farm level modeling of adaptation to climate change in southwest germany climate change will most likely confront agricultural producers with natural economic and political conditions that have not previously been observed and are largely uncertain as a consequence extrapolation from past data reaches its limits and a process based analysis of farmer adaptation is required simulation of changes in crop yields using crop growth models is a first step in that direction however changes in crop yields are only one pathway through which climate change affects agricultural production a meaningful process based analysis of farmer adaptation requires a whole farm analysis at the farm level we use a highly disaggregated mathematical programming model to analyze farm level climate change adaptation for a mountainous area in southwest germany regional level results are obtained by simulating each full time farm holding in the study area we address parameter uncertainty and model underdetermination using a cautious calibration approach and a comprehensive uncertainty analysis we deal with the resulting computational burden using efficient experimental designs and high performance computing we show that in our study area shifted crop management time slots can have potentially significant effects on agricultural supply incomes and various policy objectives promoted under german and european environmental policy schemes the simulated effects are robust against model uncertainty and underline the importance of a comprehensive assessment of climate change impacts beyond merely looking at crop yield changes our simulations demonstrate how farm level models can contribute to a process based analysis of climate change adaptation if they are embedded into a systematic framework for treating inherent model uncertainty

earnings inequality and the changing association between spouses earnings increases in the association between spouses earnings have the potential to increase inequality as marriages increasingly consist of two high earning or two low earning partners this article uses log linear models and data from the march current population survey to describe trends in the association between spouses earnings and estimate their contribution to growing earnings inequality among married couples from 1967 to 2005 the results indicate that increases in earnings inequality would have been about 25 30 lower than observed in the absence of changes in the association depending on the inequality measure used three components of these changes and how they vary across the earnings distribution are explored

demographic change and income distribution this paper examines the interactions between demographic change and income distribution especially in the context of government starting from a simple descriptive life cycle model of individual income this paper established an explicit link between the age composition of a population and the personal distribution of incomes demographic effects on income inequality are derived next 2 income maintenance programs are introduced a redistributive tax transfer scheme and a pay as you go financed state pension system the resulting government budget constraints entail interrelations between fiscal and demographic variables causing an additional indirect demographic impact on the distribution this is shown not only to change but in some cases even to reverse the distributional incidence of demographic trends the superimposition of different age structures on populations of otherwise identical characteristics is non neutral with respect to income distribution disregarding state interventions population aging increases income inequality this result may no longer generally hold if redistribution policies are taken into account the paper provides an example of how indirect demographic effects may lead to a reversal of sign in the absence of any government program a higher ratio of pensioners to active workers raises income inequality in the presence of a redistributive tax transfer scheme and pay as you go financed state pension system a higher dependency ratio decreases income dispersion the restoration of government budget equilibrium induces unintended distributional effects which put the incidence of demographic shifts in a different light varying important aging indicator with realistic forecast bounds leads to inequality fluctuations up to 35 this illustrates the quantitative scale and hence the political importance of demographically caused inequality distortions

the importance of sample attrition in life cycle labor supply estimation we examine the importance of possible nonrandom attrition to an econometric model of life cycle labor supply using both a wald test comparing attriters to nonattriters and variable addition tests based on formal models of attrition estimates using the panel study of income dynamics show that nonrandom attrition is of little concern when estimating prime age male labor supply because the effect of attrition is absorbed into fixed effects in labor supply the wage measure and instrument set have much larger effects on the estimated labor supply function of prime age men than how one adjusts for panel attrition

the baby boom housing and loanable funds this paper examines baby boom effects in a simple three period overlapping generations model in which equilibrium must be maintained in the housing market as well as in the loanable funds market all agents must buy a house financed by an adjustable rate mortgage in the first period expectations regarding the path of interest rates and the price of housing play a crucial role in determining effects of the population bulge under static expectations the rate of interest falls sharply at the appearance of the baby boom while the price of housing increases behavior in the market for loanable funds explains this surprising result when rational expectations are assumed however the rate of interest rises prior to and during the appearance of the baby boom and the price of housing increases as well welfare and long term effects in the two scenarios do not differ markedly

the effects of demographic change on the distribution of wages 1967 1990 a multiple skills model was used to examine the impact of changes in labor force composition on the wage distribution of workers by age sex education and race in the us from 1967 through 1990 the model provided for a higher level of specification than previous studies of wage distribution changes in previous investigations workers were grouped into arbitrary and a priori categories and workers in each category were assumed to be perfectly interchangeable in contrast the multiple skills model assumed that each worker had multiple skills that each skill had a productive value and that each skill was an imperfect substitute for other skills the model further assumed that changes in labor force composition would alter the distribution of skills in the labor force which in turn would produce changes in relative wages analysis revealed that wages of young college educated white and nonwhite males relative to the wages of older college educated white and nonwhite males declined since 1967 and were expected to decline throughout the 1980s in contrast the wages of young high school educated white and nonwhite males relative to the wages of older high school educated white and nonwhite males did not decline since 1967 and were not expected to decline during the 1980s the wages of white females of all ages and of all educational levels relative to the wages of males of all ages and of all educational levels declined throughout the period and were expected to decline in the future nonwhite workers made greater gains in wages since 1967 than white males and this trend was expected to continue through the 1980s however the wages of nonwhite males remained absolutely lower than those of white males by 1985 the wages of nonwhite females were expected to surpass those of white females these findings were similar to those observed in other studies except that other studies failed to detect the differential impact on the wages of high school and college educated males

the polarization of the u s labor market this paper analyzes a marked change in the evolution of the u s wage structure over the past fifteen years divergent trends in upper tail 90 50 and lower tail 50 10 wage inequality we document that wage inequality in the top half of distribution has displayed an unchecked and rather smooth secular rise for the last 25 years since 1980 wage inequality in the bottom half of the distribution also grew rapidly from 1979 to 1987 but it has ceased growing and for some measures actually narrowed since the late 1980s furthermore we find that occupational employment growth shifted from monotonically increasing in wages education in the 1980s to a pattern of more rapid growth in jobs at the top and bottom relative to the middles of the wage education distribution in the 1990s we characterize these patterns as the u201cpolarization u201d of the u s labor market with employment polarizing into high wage and low wage jobs at the expense of middle wage work we show how a model of computerization in which computers most strongly complement the non routine abstract cognitive tasks of high wage jobs directly substitute for the routine tasks found in many traditional middle wage jobs and may have little direct impact on non routine manual tasks in relatively low wage jobs can help explain the observed polarization of the u s labor market this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

who bears aggregate fluctuations and how the consumption of high consumption households is more exposed to fluctuations in aggregate consumption and income than that of low consumption households in the consumer expenditure cex survey the exposure to aggregate consumption growth of households in the top 10 percent of the consumption distribution in the cex is about five times that of households in the bottom 80 percent given real aggregate per capita consumption growth about 3 percentage points less than its historical mean during the past year these figures predict that the ratio of consumption of the top 10 percent to the bottom 80 percent has fallen by about 15 percentage points relative to trend using income data from piketty and saez 2003 we show that the income especially the wage income of rich households is more exposed to aggregate fluctuations so their higher income exposure is a likely contributor to their higher consumption exposure finally we find a striking change in the exposure of the incomes of high income households prior to the early 1980 s the incomes of high income households were not more exposed to aggregate fluctuations thus while high income households currently bear an inordinately large share of aggregate fluctuations this is a recent occurrence this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

income inequality in the united states 1913 1998 this paper presents new homogeneous series on top shares of income and wages from 1913 to 1998 in the united states using individual tax returns data top income and wages shares display a u shaped pattern over the century our series suggest that the large shocks that capital owners experienced during the great depression and world war ii have had a permanent effect on top capital incomes we argue that steep progressive income and estate taxation may have prevented large fortunes from fully recovering from these shocks top wage shares were flat before world war ii dropped precipitously during the war and did not start to recover before the late 1960s but are now higher than before world war ii as a result the working rich have replaced the rentiers at the top of the income distribution

fertilizer market development a comparative analysis of ethiopia kenya and zambia abstract this article synthesizes case studies from kenya zambia and ethiopia to assess how differences in the implementation of fertilizer marketing policies have affected the costs and risks borne by marketing actors the investment response by private traders and fertilizer consumption financial cost accounting techniques indicate that domestic marketing costs account for 50 or more of farm gate prices the sum of importer wholesaler and retailer profit margins generally account for less than 10 there are opportunities to reduce domestic marketing costs through the following reducing port fees coordinating the timing of fertilizer clearance from the port with up country transport reducing transport costs through port rail and road improvements reducing high fuel taxes and reducing the uncertainty associated with government input distribution programs that impose additional marketing costs on traders estimated reductions in the farm gate price of fertilizer from implementing the full range of options identified in each country range from 11 to 18 price reductions of this magnitude if passed along to farmers would increase farmers effective demand for fertilizer investments in selected publically provided goods often considered outside the scope of fertilizer marketing policy per se strongly affect the costs of fertilizer farmers willingness to pay for it and hence the performance of markets

identifying the elasticity of taxable income we use matched panels from the current population survey along with a grouping instrumental variables estimator to provide new estimates of the elasticity of taxable income our identification strategy exploits the fact that federal and state tax reforms over the past three decades have differentially affected cohorts across states and over time we find that the elasticity is in the range of 0 4 0 55 the implication of our new estimates for tax policy is that the revenue maximising tax rate is nearly 30 percentage points lower than that obtained when we use the typical identification strategy in the literature

match bias from earnings imputation in the current population survey the case of imperfect matching this article examines match bias arising from earnings imputation wage equation parameters are estimated from mixed samples of workers reporting and not reporting earnings the latter assigned earnings of donors regressions including attributes not used as imputation match criteria e g union are severely biased match bias also arises with attributes used as match criteria but matched imperfectly imperfect matching on schooling age flattens earnings profiles within education age groups and creates jumps across groups assuming conditional missing at random a general analytic expression correcting match bias is derived and compared to alternatives reweighting a respondent only sample proves an attractive approach

is earnings nonresponse ignorable abstract earnings nonresponse in the current population survey is roughly 30 in the monthly surveys and 20 in the march survey if nonresponse is ignorable unbiased estimates can be achieved by omitting nonrespondents little is known about whether cps nonresponse is ignorable using sample frame measures to identify selection we find clear cut evidence among men but limited evidence among women for negative selection into response wage equation slope coefficients are affected little by selection but because of intercept shifts wages for men and to a lesser extent women are understated as are gender gaps selection is least severe among household heads

using repeated cross sections to explore movements into and out of poverty movements in and out of poverty are of core interest to both policymakers and economists yet the panel data needed to analyze such movements are rare in this paper the authors build on the methodology used to construct poverty maps to show how repeated cross sections of household survey data can allow inferences to be made about movements in and out of poverty they illustrate that the method permits the estimation of bounds on mobility and provide non parametric and parametric approaches to obtaining these bounds they test how well the method works on data sets for vietnam and indonesia where we are able to compare our method to true panel estimates the results are sufficiently encouraging to offer the prospect of some limited basic insights into mobility and poverty duration in settings where historically it was judged that the data necessary for such analysis were unavailable

smart policies to reduce pesticide use and avoid income trade offs an agent based model applied to thai agriculture abstract policy makers in developing countries need better evidence of how changes in pesticide regulation would affect pesticide reduction and farm incomes but there are very few modeling tools that can provide such information the present study develops a new model based on mathematical programming based multi agent system mpmas a simulation software that allows assessing ex ante the impact of alternative pesticide use reduction strategies including combinations of pesticide taxes the introduction of integrated pest management a price premium for safe agricultural produce and subsidies for biopesticides the model is parameterized with farm and plot level data from northern of thailand where the adoption of high value cash crops has been accompanied by a rapid increase in synthetic pesticide use simulation results suggest that a pesticide tax alone has little effect on synthetic pesticide use a smart policy package combining integrated pest management a progressive pesticide tax based on toxicity and subsidies lowering the price of biopesticides can reduce average use of hazardous pesticides by 34 over current levels without adverse effects on the average farm income

economic mobility along the business cycle the case of peru the performance of latin american countries in reducing poverty and expanding the middle class has been remarkable by taking a close look at the peruvian experience we examine how this aggregate

the overeducated canadian changes in the relationship among earnings education and age for canadian men 1971 81 individual data from six surveys of consumer finances are used to assess recent changes in the earnings profiles of canadian males with particular emphasis upon the role of cohort size the data reveal a marked compression of earnings differences across levels of education at most ages the slope of age earnings profiles did not change systematically regression analysis confirms that cohort size has a negative impact on earnings that diminishes with age however the estimated effects of cohort size do not explain the observed decline in earnings differences across levels of education le canadien trop instruit a propos des changements dans les rapports entre gains age et niveau d instruction pour les hommes canadiens 1971 81 l auteur analyse les changements recents dans les profils de revenus des hommes canadiens en s attachant en particulier a examiner l impact de la taille de la cohorte a l aide des donnees individuelles tirees de six enqu es sur les finances des consommateurs les donnees revelent une compression marquee de la fourchette de revenus pour divers niveaux d instruction et ce pour la plupart des ages la pente du profil age revenus ne change pas systematiquement l analyse de regression montre que la taille de la cohorte a un impact negatif sur le revenu mais un impact qui diminue avec l age cependant les effets calibres de la taille de la cohorte n expliquent pas la chute observee dans les differentiels de revenus pour des canadiens ayant des niveaux d instruction differents

educational attainment and cohort size we argue that the postwar baby boom caused substantial fluctuations in both the economic rewards to education and educational attainment over the last 3 decades if substitutability between young and old workers diminishes with education the present value of lifetime earnings for a boom cohort is depressed more for highly educated workers reducing incentives for educational attainment the opposite is true for pre and postboom cohorts the diminishing substitutability hypothesis explains the declines in both the returns to college and college completion rates in the 1970s and predicts a substantial increase in educational attainment for postboomers

how did the increase in economic inequality between 1970 and 1990 affect children s educational attainment 1 this study estimates the effect of changes in economic inequality between 1970 and 1990 on children s educational attainment data on individual children from the panel study of income dynamics is combined with other data on state characteristics growing up in a state with widespread economic inequality increases educational attainment for high income children and lowers it for low income children most of the effect is due to factors unassociated with family income or economic segregation in the state these other factors include state spending for schooling and the increase in the returns to schooling over this period

levels and long term trends in earnings inequality overcoming current population survey censoring problems using the gb2 distribution over its history the march current population survey cps has increasingly captured the upper tail of the distribution of all sources of income this together with time consistency problems in top coding means that users of both the public use and restricted access cps will understate the level of wage earnings and income inequality in earlier years and overstate their growth over time we address this problem by modeling the personal earnings of full time full year workers using the generalized beta distribution of the second kind calculating gini coefficients from the estimated parameters and comparing them with past findings

income inequality and income segregation this article investigates how the growth in income inequality from 1970 to 2000 affected patterns of income segregation along three dimensions the spatial segregation of poverty and affluence race specific patterns of income segregation and the geographic scale of income segregation the evidence reveals a robust relationship between income inequality and income segregation an effect that is larger for black families than for white families in addition income inequality affects income segregation primarily through its effect on the large scale spatial segregation of affluence rather than by affecting the spatial segregation of poverty or by altering small scale patterns of income segregation

labor force participation work experience and the pay gap between men and women previous research on the relationship between women s educational attainment and the timing of entry into parenthood has produced conflicting results although studies have consistently found that educational attainment has a delaying effect on entry

technical coefficients for bio economic farm household models a meta modelling approach with applications for southern mali abstract in recent years different types of bio economic models have been developed to support the analysis of the potential impact of agrarian policies on changes in land use sustainable resource management and farmers welfare most bio economic models rely on series of discrete input output coefficients for current and improved cropping and livestock activities whereas mathematical programming procedures are usually applied to analyse optimum allocative choice adequate procedures for the smooth integration of biophysical information into economic decision models are however not readily available this article provides a new and comprehensive framework for the incorporation of technical input output coefficients derived from agroecological simulation approaches into bio economic farm household models therefore continuous production functions are estimated for the production side of the farm household model making use of meta modelling principles it is shown that meta modelling offers considerable scope for improving the specification and behaviour of bio economic farm household models this procedure is applied in a farm household model developed for the analysis of farmers response to agrarian policies in southern mali results are presented for the behaviour of a typical household focusing attention on the trade offs between farm income and soil nutrient balances under free market conditions and with constraints on labour capital and animal traction markets the stability and robustness of the model is analysed through a simulation of the impact of higher input costs for land use and fertiliser applications

soil erosion and smallholders conservation decisions in the highlands of ethiopia abstract soil erosion is one of the most serious environmental problems in ethiopia coupled with growing populations falling per capita food production and worsening poverty loss of productive land due to land degradation undermines rural livelihoods and national food security despite their awareness of the erosion problem peasants investments in land have been limited we use an applied nonseparable model to simulate conservation decisions pervasive market imperfections poverty and high rates of time preference seem to undermine erosion control investments lack of technologies which provide quick returns to subsistence constrained peasants also seem to deter such investments lower private incentives to internalize the intertemporal land degradation externality may require public intervention

trends in men s earnings volatility what does the panel study of income dynamics show abstract many recent studies have investigated trends in u s men s earnings volatility but the studies based on the panel study of income dynamics appear to conflict with each other and with studies based on other data we critique some of the existing methods of measuring earnings volatility and we advocate for transparent methods that focus on simple measures of dispersion in year to year earnings changes applying such measures in the psid we find that apart from the well known counter cyclicality of earnings volatility men s earnings volatility increased during the 1970s but did not show a clear trend afterwards until a new upward trend appeared after 1998

inequality among american families with children 1975 to 2005 from 1975 to 2005 the variance in incomes of american families with children increased by two thirds in attempting to explain this trend labor market studies emphasize the rising pay of college graduates while demographers typically highlight the implications of family structural changes across time in this article we join these lines of research by conceiving of income inequality as the joint product of the distribution of earnings in the labor market and the pooling of incomes in families we develop this framework with a decomposition of family income inequality using annual data from the march current population survey our analysis shows that disparities in education and single parenthood contributed to income inequality but rising educational attainment and women s employment offset these effects most of the increase in family income inequality was due to increasing within group inequality which was widely shared across family types and levels of schooling

simulating the diffusion of organic farming practices in two new eu member states abstract agriculture continues to be a major contributor to water pollution climate change and loss of biodiversity although policies to encourage farmers to work to higher sustainability standards in food and energy crop production have increased throughout the european union in new member states accession to the european union mostly brought a substantially increased public support to foster the diffusion of certified organic farming however the take up of organic farming is varied for reasons that are not yet well understood in this paper we analyse the diffusion of organic farming through farm populations this involves an understanding of farmer behaviour and how it can change over time we present a generic agent based model that builds on the theory of planned behaviour as framework for understanding and modelling farmers decision making processes the model is applied to high diffusion regions in two new eu member states latvia and estonia the values for the model s parameters are informed by survey data the model reproduces the interdependence of social influence and economic factors social influence alone is shown to make little difference to the model dynamics organic farmers remain organic and conventional farmers remain conventional introducing a change to the environment e g a subsidy results in an increase in the proportion of adopters thus economic factors appear to be more influential than social factors however only when allowing for both the subsidy and social influence do we reveal the whole picture and the combined adoption rate is higher than the sum of the proportion of adopters resulting from just social influence without a subsidy and from just a subsidy without social influence we also compare the effect of the subsidy with the effect of influence from organic farm advisors to develop policy recommendations

a framework for analyzing the impact of cohort size on education and labor earning the paper analyzes three models of labor demand solving for the change in wages of a given labor group due to a change in the size of a birth cohort when the production function includes age schooling groups as separate factors an increase in the size of one birth cohort changes the size of several labor market groups also in this case the demand effect of changing factor size is joined by a supply effect of changing schooling proportions ignoring the supply effect may cause us to overestimate the effect of a large birth cohort on wages of young skilled workers

inequality and poverty in united states the effects of rising dispersion of men s earnings and changing family behaviour using semiparametric density estimation techniques we analyse the effect of rising dispersion of men s earnings and related changes in family behaviour on increasing inequality in the distribution of family income in the united states for the period 1969 1989 the growing dispersion of men s earnings and changing family structure can account for most of the rise in family income inequality by contrast the increase in labour force participation by women offset this trend inequality grew at a slower rate in the 1990s than in earlier decades largely because of stabilization in the relative earnings of men from low income families

agent based modeling for ex ante assessment of tree crop innovations litchis in northern thailand this study uses an agent based model for ex ante assessment of agricultural innovations the model builds on whole farm mathematical programming mp and extends the methodology with a spatial representation of the system the heterogeneity of farm households and landscapes and the interaction between farm households we apply the model in a northern thai watershed to study the potential of four innovations to increase the profitability of litchi orchards cost benefit analysis shows that each innovation would increase the profitability of litchi growing however the results of the agent based model show that at current price levels these innovations alone would not be enough to stem the decline in the area under litchis the model was validated and the sensitivity of the results tested for variations in the irrigated water supply and liquidity we report on how farmers responded to these results and discuss the implications for other areas in northern thailand

in defense of inequality this is a perfect time to discuss inequality after a period of three decades when wage inequality among men in the united states grew to approximate pre world war ii levels measured inequality apparently has stabilized and may in fact be decreasing claudia goldin and robert a margo 1992 it is therefore a good time to assess the changes to compare the gains and losses i choose this topic not to offend but because i believe inequality is an economic good that has received too much bad press i also think you will agree that it is a good which like any other can be scarce or overly abundant i am neither trying to praise nor defend poverty and i hope it is understood that the link between wages and income is not especially close particularly at lower incomes where nonemployment dominates wages play many roles in our economy along with time worked they determine labor income but they also signal relative scarcity and abundance and with malleable skills wages provide incentives to render the services that are most highly valued further we all buy and sell labor either directly or indirectly as labor is embodied in products to reverse one of the themes of milton friedman s introductory theory class one man s poison can be another s meat together with rising relative wages the post 1950 increase in the job market employment of women is one of our major accomplishments but it is an accomplishment that has been fueled in part by the low wages earned by those the census classifies as private household workers childcare workers workers in laundries and cleaning establishments food service workers etc as the population ages the prospect of increasing dependence on personal assistance looms for the most part personal assistants and aides earn low wages wages that extend the services we can afford friedman s actual observation is however that one man s meat is not necessarily another s poison friedman 1976 the relatively high wages earned by physicians scientists and university professors have attracted many immigrants to the united states would we be better off if they had not immigrated we could in fact reduce wage inequality by simply proscribing immigration because the wage distribution of immigrants is u shaped relative to that of natives see j p smith and b edmonston 1997 p 180 table 5 4 my guess is that most economists faced with such an option would respond by directing attention to the services immigrants provide my objective is to examine the recent period of increasing wage inequality with an eye toward the positive i describe some of the changes that have occurred speculate about the causes and wrap up with illustrations of consequences i contend that growing inequality has created opportunities that have been exploited by many and that the gains are not restricted to the traditional elite moreover when we have adopted policies to mitigate the downside of increasing inequality which is falling real wages in the lower parts of the distribution a surprising number of individuals have also capitalized on those opportunities in ways that are not productive before turning to the data i want to make a few general observations department of economics texas a m university college station tx 77843 4228 i am indebted to martin gritsch for assistance in extracting the data and to barbara charlton for secretarial support i am also indebted to participants in the ucla rand labor workshop and especially to janet currie and james p smith for comments and suggestions on an earlier draft i have drawn heavily on my previous work much of it in collaboration with kevin m murphy

input use and market development in sub saharan africa an overview abstract this paper sets forth the background and objectives of this special issue trends in input use since 1980 are reviewed and a conceptual framework is presented for analyzing problems of input use and formulating strategies for resolving them reasons for low levels of fertilizer use by smallholder farmers are summarized briefly the essential points of the papers in the special issue and their implications for further expansion of input use in sub saharan africa are then outlined

wage inequality and family labor supply using the march current population surveys and the 1960 census this article describes earnings and employment changes for married couples in different types of households stratified by the husband s hourly wage while declines in male employment and earnings have been greatest for low wage men employment and earnings gains have been largest for wives of middle and high wage men these findings cast doubt on the notion that married women have increased their labor supply in the recent decades to compensate for the disappointing earnings growth of their husbands

long term trends in earnings inequality what the cps can tell us abstract changes in current population survey cps topcoding rules in the 1990s artificially increased measured earnings inequality we create a time consistent cps data series and compare trends in earnings inequality from 1975 to 2001

estimates of year to year volatility in earnings and in household incomes from administrative survey and matched data abstract we document trends in the volatility in earnings and household incomes between 1985 and 2005 in three different data sources administrative earnings records the survey of income and program participation sipp matched to administrative earnings records and sipp survey data in all data sources we find a substantial amount of year to year volatility in workers earnings and household incomes in the data sources that contain administrative earnings we find that volatility has been roughly constant and has even declined slightly since the mid 1980s these findings differ from what is found using survey data and what has been reported in previous studies

technological and policy options for sustainable agricultural intensification in eastern uganda this article presents a bio economic household model which has been developed to assess the potential impacts of agricultural intensification efforts on economic and ecological indicators in eastern uganda a study region in the lake victoria crescent was selected with comparative advantages for intensive agricultural production high agricultural potential high market access and high population density however current production is characterized by low input output systems revealing a discrepancy between development opportunities and actual development outcomes based on a farmer participatory research approach production methods were introduced in the study region aimed at fostering sustainable agricultural development data from two community surveys two comprehensive household and plot level surveys and farm trial data were used to develop and calibrate bio economic models for four representative household types model scenarios reveal that farm households in eastern uganda would not pursue sustainable intensification under current socio economic conditions the market environment has to be improved substantially i e transaction and transportation costs have to be reduced innovative credit schemes for smallholders have to be introduced and alternative forms of labor acquisition have to be promoted to provide sufficient economic incentives for the adoption of environmentally sound production methods in addition agricultural service provision needs to be reformed and more agricultural research is needed for new and better targeted technologies

the generalised beta as a model for the distribution of earnings abstract we present a neoclassical model of optimising firm behaviour which predicts the earnings distribution to follow the flexible and well known generalised beta distribution of the second kind

from earnings inequality to consumption inequality this paper studies the paths from inequality in earnings to inequality in household consumption we show that careful study of the evolution of the variances and covariances of earnings and consumption within cohorts across time can identify permanent and transitory shocks we present an application to the evolution of inequality in the united kingdom we extend previous results to recognise separate earnings of partners in couples

neighborhood income distributions this paper studies the distribution of income within neighborhoods and contrasts it with the national income distribution it relies on a unique feature of the american housing survey whose 1985 1989 and 1993 waves of interviews provide data for small residential neighborhoods these consist of a dwelling unit and up to ten of its nearest neighbors most previous work on neighborhoods has used information for much larger groupings of the population such as census tracts the paper employs a variety of parametric and nonparametric econometric tools to study income sorting across us residential neighborhoods it documents the patterns of dependence among neighbors income and imperfect sorting with moderate but very significant correlation among incomes of neighbors and of considerable income mixing in u s neighborhoods

the kuznets curve and the great u turn income inequality in u s counties 1970 to 1990 the authors examine the determinants of inequality in the distribution of family income in approximately 3 100 counties of the united states in 1970 1980 and 1990 such a study provides a window on global trends in social inequality during the period which spans the tail end of the kuznets curve and the more recent upswing in income inequality results from random effects regression models that control for unmeasured heterogeneity among states reveal the continued importance of the kuznetsian pattern of declining inequality with economic development a positive effect of urbanization on inequality a declining positive impact of sector dualism an increasing positive effect of educational heterogeneity and a persistent effect of racial dualism several variables associated with the recent upswing in inequality have significant effects female labor force participation negative female headed households positive percent of the population over age 65 changes from positive to negative over the period manufacturing employment negative and unemployment ambiguous they also discuss methods of estimating the gini coefficient for income inequality at the county level and measures of sector farm nonfarm dualism racial black white dualism and educational heterogeneity

inequality and top income cyclicality abstract previous studies have shown that as top incomes became more concentrated over recent decades they also became more cyclical this paper derives an exact expression for top income cyclicality to show that it rises whenever average income growth tends to be captured by those at the top as it has over recent decades the increased cyclicality of top incomes may therefore be a reflection of their increased concentration rather than a distinct phenomenon in need of its own explanation

u s wage inequality trends and recent immigration how should we assess the changing economic status of workers and families in the united states the answer is obvious to many including outstanding economists who decry the meager wage growth and rising wage and income inequality in the united states since 1979 paul krugman 1992 richard freeman 1996 1997 james tobin 1996 1997 according to freeman 1996 1997 the following facts are not in dispute

agent based spatial models applied to agriculture a simulation tool for technology diffusion resource use changes and policy analysis abstract this paper presents a spatial multi agent programming model which has been developed for assessing policy options in the diffusion of innovations and resource use changes unlike conventional simulation tools used in agricultural economics the model class described here applies a multi agent cellular automata ca approach by using heterogeneous farm household models and capturing their social and spatial interactions explicitly the individual choice of the farm household among available production consumption investment and marketing alternatives is represented in recursive linear programming models adoption constraints are introduced in form of network threshold values that reflect the cumulative effects of experience and observation of peers experiences the model s economic and hydrologic components are tightly connected into a spatial framework the integration of economic and hydrologic processes facilitates the consideration of feedback effects in the use of water for irrigation the simulation runs of the model are carried out with an empirical data set which has been derived from various data sources on an agricultural region in chile simulation results show that agent based spatial modelling constitutes a powerful approach to better understanding processes of innovation and resource use change

a note on aggregation of skills and labor quality we use a unique new data set that combines data on individual workers and their employers to estimate marginal productivity differentials among different types of workers we then compare these to estimated relative wages leading to new evidence on

using the pareto distribution to improve estimates of topcoded earnings i introduction the public use march current population survey cps is the primary source of data for tracking levels and trends in u s labor earnings and for understanding the factors which influence these trends literatures that have used cps earnings data are vast and include research on the changing returns to education or college major in the labor market autor 2014 gemici and wiswall 2014 earnings differentials across occupations glied ma and pearlstein 2015 earnings volatility hardy and ziliak 2014 elasticity of taxable income burns and ziliak forthcoming and more generally the causes of changes in wage structures and earnings inequality see e g autor katz and kearney 2008 card and dinardo 2002 goldin and katz 2007 juhn murphy and pierce 1993 acemoglu 2002 altonji and blank 1999 and katz and autor 1999 provide reviews of this literature however these literatures that use the public use cps data have been hampered by an attenuated view of the right tail of the labor earnings distribution due to the topcoding of high earnings in the public use cps data 1 importantly the failure to properly correct for inconsistent topcoding has been found to result in biased estimates for a range of outcomes including returns to education hubbard 2011 the size of the earnings gaps between gender and race groups burkhauser and larrimore 2009a the relative economic resources of individuals with and without disabilities burkhauser and larrimore 2009b and population level income inequality burkhauser et al 2012 to correct for topcoding biases public use cps based researchers have generally pursued one of four paths 1 ignoring the topcoding problem 2 making an ad hoc adjustment to topcoded earnings values 3 using a pareto distribution to estimate earnings at the top of the distribution or 4 using cell means or rank proximity swapped data that is based on the still censored internal cps data for example a common ad hoc technique based on estimates from pareto imputations of top earnings is to replace topcoded earnings with a multiple of the topcode threshold so all individuals with topcoded earnings in a year are assumed to have earnings at 1 3 1 4 or 1 5 times the topcode threshold autor katz and kearney 2008 juhn murphy and pierce 1993 katz and murphy 1992 lemieux 2006 however such an approach may misstate top earnings if the wrong multiple is used or if the appropriate multiple changes over time similarly researchers using a pareto imputation of top earnings may misstate those earnings if they are unable to obtain a reasonable fit for the pareto distribution when using available public use data making use of internal march cps files with their much higher censoring levels we show that previous ad hoc estimates and pareto estimations of top earnings based on public use data understate mean earnings at the top of the earnings distribution and hence also understate earnings inequality however as this internal data are also censored albeit at higher levels any results based purely on the internal data will also fail to capture a portion of the income at the very top of the distribution and therefore will also understate inequality hence while cell means based on internal data such as those produced by larrimore et al 2008 and the rank proximity swapped data series which the census began providing in 2010 each allow researchers to replicate results from the internal census data findings using these series will be subject to the same limitations and understatement of true top incomes as the internal values recognizing the limitations of the existing options to correct for topcoding we proceed by using a continuous maximum likelihood estimator along with internal cps data to produce a series of more accurate estimates of top earnings in the cps data our estimates start with actual top earnings from the internal cps combined with a pareto estimate using these data for internally censored observations

recent trends in top income shares in the usa reconciling estimates from march cps and irs tax return data although the majority of research on us income inequality trends is based on public use march cps data a new wave of research using irs tax return data reports substantially higher levels of inequality and faster growing trends we show that these apparently inconsistent estimates are largely reconciled if the inequality measure and the income distribution are defined in the same way using internal cps data for 1967 2006 we closely match irs data based estimates of top income shares reported by piketty and saez 2003 our results imply that any inequality increases since 1993 are concentrated among the top 1 percent of the distribution

why do mexican americans earn low wages using current population survey data from november 1979 and 1989 i find that mexican americans earn low wages primarily because they possess less human capital than other workers not because they

reducing dependence on chemical fertilizers and its financial implications for farmers in india the fertilizer intensive technology so long promoted in agriculture produced a green revolution but has brought long term damages to soil quality the technology now appears unsustainable for future agricultural development in india both on account of its ecological implications and the burden on the budget there is now a need to revisit the traditional methods once used in agriculture and to look for a judicious blend of chemical fertilizer based technology with organic manure since manures are relatively less productive in the short run there is an alarm that a shift in technology away from the chemical fertilizer towards organic manure may mean a compromise in production or may hurt the incomes of farmers this paper emphasizes the environmental benefits of a possible shift in agricultural technology while keeping in view the importance of sustaining crop yield levels and protecting farmers incomes considering two major crops in india in specific states the paper finds that over time while fertilizer use intensified several times over the use of manure in agriculture either stagnated or declined the manure market remained localized limited and unorganized and its price was significantly higher than fertilizer in terms of nutrients in contrast to the organized and state supported fertilizer market the paper estimates quadratic yield functions based on cross section household level data and using the prices faced by farmers as reported by official survey finds that in majority of the cases there will not be any financial loss resulting from a small shift in technology towards organic manure such a shift can however be considered feasible if the losing households are compensated and if manure price is kept in control by promoting a more dynamic manure market d 2004 elsevier b v all rights reserved

simulating soil fertility and poverty dynamics in uganda a bio economic multi agent systems approach declining soil fertility and increasing rural poverty are major problems facing sub saharan agriculture bio economic modeling has been used to analyze the complex interaction between ecological sustainability and rural poverty as well as to explore policy options promoting sustainable development this paper shows that these models can be further advanced by adopting an agent based modeling approach this gives a more realistic representation of diversity in socioeconomic and biophysical terms allows local interaction between households and can yield an ex ante assessment of the distributional consequences of policy intervention this paper describes the modeling approach and illustrates it with an empirical application to two village communities in the lake victoria crescent of uganda it is shown how the model system can be calibrated with and validated against empirical data the model is used to analyze the potential effect of short term credit mineral fertilizer and improved maize seed on poverty and sustainability simulation results suggest substantial reductions in poverty although the incidence of poverty would remain high and these innovations alone would have little effect on the long term ecological sustainability of the system

truncation bias and the measurement of income inequality 1988 truncation bias and the measurement of income inequality journal of business economic statistics vol 6 no 3 pp 335 337

the role of food stamps in consumption stabilization although the food stamp program is the largest universal entitlement program in the social safety net little is known about its stabilizing role in household income and consumption using data from the panel study of income dynamics spanning 1980 99 we estimate the volatility of income with and without food stamps coupled with a variance decomposition of consumption among families at high ex ante risk of food stamp participation food stamps reduced income volatility by about 12 percent and food consumption volatility by about 14 percent there was however a marked decline in consumption smoothing benefits of the program in the early 1990s relative to the 1980s

does welfare inhibit success the long term effects of removing low income youth from the disability rolls i estimate the effects of removing low income youth with disabilities from supplemental security income ssi on their earnings and income in adulthood using a regression discontinuity design based on a 1996 policy change in age 18 medical reviews i find that youth who are removed from ssi at age 18 recover one third of the lost ssi cash income in earnings ssi youth who are removed and stay off ssi earn on average 4 400 annually and they lose 76 000 in present discounted observed income over the 16 years following removal relative to those who do not receive a review jel i30 i38 j14 supporters of welfare programs defend them as vital lifelines for those who face barriers to work while critics charge that these programs create perverse incentives to qualify and perpetuate dependency encapsulating this debate is the controversy over the us supplemental security income ssi program a program that provides cash payments and medicaid eligibility to low income children and adults with disabilities and the aged elderly after three decades of rapid expansion ssi is now the largest nonwork based cash welfare program in the united states paying about 50 billion each year to 8 million recipients including 1 3 million children 1 ssi has been singled out by policymakers and the media for potential perverse incentives

a life cycle perspective on changes in earnings inequality among married men and women abstract the connection between changes in earnings inequality of individuals and changes in family earnings involves several links the movements in the employment of different family members the association between changes in husbands and in wives earnings and patterns of assortative mating a decomposition of the logarithm of the coefficient of variation in family earnings identifies these links the data on the dispersion of family earnings are organized not simply over time but also by age the growth in wives relative employment and earnings has partly offset the effects on family earnings inequality of the increase in husbands earnings inequality

welfare the earned income tax credit and the labor supply of single mothers during 1984 1996 welfare and tax policy were changed to encourage work by single mothers the earned income tax credit was expanded welfare benets were cut welfare time limits were added and welfare cases were terminated medicaid for the working poor was expanded as were training programs and child care during this same time period there were unprecedented increases in the employment and hours of single mothers we show that a large share of the increase in work by single mothers can be attributed to the eitc and other tax changes with smaller shares for welfare benet cuts welfare waivers training programs and child care programs