the effect of the medicaid home care benefit onlong term care choices of the elderly this paper analyses the impact of medicaid home care benefits on the probability of nursing home entry and the use of formal and informal home care by disabled elderly remaining in the community using data from the national long term care survey i find evidence that medicaid home care subsidies reduced the probability of nursing home entry among at risk elderly using formal home care among non institutionalized persons the subsidy increased the use of formal home care but led to substitution of informal with formal care for services that were non medical in nature i introduction long term care for the elderly has become an area of great interest for policymakers due to the increased number of aged americans and to the important role of government in financing and regulating their care the size of the population requiring long term care is expected to increase from about 7 million in 1988 to about 18 million by the year 2040 it is popularly believed that the elderly often lack family support and must enter nursing homes when they become chronically ill in actuality the majority of impaired elderly remain at home only 22 percent of the disabled elderly population is institutionalized and the remaining 78 percent lives in the community most receiving assistance from family members of those remaining in the community 27 percent receive formal home and community based care to augment their informal care while 3 percent receive formal services only special committee on aging 1988 private insurance rarely covers longterm care since many of the elderly cannot afford prolonged out of pocket expenditures on nursing home or home health care the public sector ends up paying for it public long term care expenditures account for 0 45 percent of gnp with most of these expenditures going towards nursing home care with rapid inflation in the health care sector policymakers have been driven to explore alternatives to nursing home care which are potentially less costly one of these alternatives is home and community based care while the idea of expanding publicly financed home and community based care programs has been enthusiastically received by the elderly and their families researchers have questioned its cost effectiveness raising two issues the first concern is that extended home care benefits may not lower nursing home use but will primarily benefit persons who would not have entered a nursing home anyway the second possibility is that home care benefits will reduce reliance on informal caregiving if recipients use the formal care to substitute for rather than supplement the unpaid care they were already receiving much of the research on how formal home care affects the provision of informal home care and the use of nursing home services has focused on all forms of formal care including care paid for out of pocket two such studies are those by newman et al 1988 and hanley et al 1991 their results are likely to differ from those of an explicit analysis of the effects of a home care subsidy for example a family will purchase formal home care services as a substitute for their own informally provided care only if the opportunity cost of caregiving is greater than the cost of the paid care on the other hand if the formal care is essentially free to the recipients their families are likely to substitute formal care for their informal services even if the cost of the formal care to society is greater than the family s opportunity cost of caregiving thus home care subsidies are likely to lead to greater substitution of formal for informal care than we would observe in the absence of subsidization it is therefore misleading to extrapolate from this previous line of research to infer the effects of expanded government home care programs research concentrating on the subsidy effect itself has often been conducted through demonstration projects

the role of multilateral institutions in international trade cooperation the world trade organization wfo lacks the power to directly enforce agreements it is therefore important to understand what role the wto can play to facilitate international cooperation and whether a multilateral institution can offer distinct advantages over a web of bilateral agreements this paper examines two potential benefits of a multilateral trade institution first verifying violations of the agreements and informing third parties thus facilitating multilateral reputation mechanisms second promoting multilateral trade negotiations rather than a web of bilateral negotiations the model suggests that a multilateral approach is particularly important when there are strong imbalances in bilateral trading relationships

the behavior of prices and inflation an empirical analysis of disaggregat price data this paper analyzes the effects of inflation on the dispersion of prices as well as other aspects of price behavior using disaggregated data on prices of foodstuffs in israel during 1978 84 we find that the effect of expected inflation on intramarket price variability is stronger than the effect of unexpected inflation we show that even in times of high inflation price quotations are not trivially short and price changes are not synchronized across firms these facts taken together confirm that there is some staggering in the setting of prices we find that the distribution of real prices is far from being uniform as many menu cost based models assume or conclude in fact as inflation increases to very high levels this distribution is not even symmetric when the annual inflation rate reaches 130 percent there are equal chances of finding real prices above or below the market average but upward deviations in the real price are further away from zero than downward ones furthermore as the annu

social security and aggregate capital accumulation revisited dynamic simultaneous estimates in a wealth generation model this paper re examines feldstein s 1974 1982 results of the effect of social security on private capital accumulation in the context of a simultaneous equation model of capital accumulation the model incorporates dynamic feedback effects in capital accumulation and is estimated by fiml to incorporate theoretical restrictions that are tested against the data it is then simulated as a full dynamic model to analyze the long run effect of ssw on private capital accumulation the simulated effects are in the same direction as found by feldstein but are considerably weaker

two stage residual inclusion estimation addressing endogeneity in health econometric modeling the paper focuses on two estimation methods that have been widely used to address endogeneity in empirical research in health economics and health services research two stage predictor substitution 2sps and two stage residual inclusion 2sri 2sps is the rote extension to nonlinear models of the popular linear two stage least squares estimator the 2sri estimator is similar except that in the second stage regression the endogenous variables are not replaced by first stage predictors instead first stage residuals are included as additional regressors in a generic parametric framework we show that 2sri is consistent and 2sps is not results from a simulation study and an illustrative example also recommend against 2sps and favor 2sri our findings are important given that there are many prominent examples of the application of inconsistent 2sps in the recent literature this study can be used as a guide by future researchers in health economics who are confronted with endogeneity in their empirical work

is the wto passe the wto has delivered policy outcomes that are very different from those likely to emerge out of the recent wave of preferential trade agreements ptas should economists see this as an efficient institutional hand off where the wto has carried trade liberalization as far as it can manage and is now passing the baton to ptas to finish the job this paper surveys a growing economics literature on international trade agreements and argues on this basis that the wto is not passe rather and subject to some caveats this survey of research to date suggests that the wto warrants strong support while a more cautious view of ptas seems appropriate

developing countries as plaintiffs and defendants in gatt wto trade disputes developing countries have been increasing their participation in the formal institutions and proceedings of the multilateral trading system a prominent example is their more frequent involvement as defendants and plaintiffs in gatt wto trade disputes this paper provides an initial economic appraisal of developing country performance in the gatt wto dispute settlement system we measure the economic resolution of these disputes through trade liberalisation gains and our results suggest that developing country plaintiffs have had more success under wto disputes than was the case under the gatt we also document evidence on potential determinants of this success the capacity for plaintiffs to make credible retaliatory threats and the guilty determinations by gatt wto panels finally there is also some evidence that developing countries have recognised the importance of retaliatory threats and have responded by changing their pattern of dispute initiation under the wto to better take advantage of the instances in which they have sufficient leverage to threaten retaliation and induce compliance with gatt wto obligations

evaluating microfoundations for aggregate price rigidities evidence from matched firm level data on product prices and unit labor cost a number of competing business cycle models have recently emerged all of which can explain why nominal shocks have real effects 1 although sharing a large number of common features a key difference between these models lies in the assumptions of how firms set prices and process information yet there exists very little direct micro evidence on the credibility of these assumptions this paper uses detailed data on product prices and unit labor cost merged at the firm level to evaluate competing sets of assumptions regarding firms price setting behavior thereby we provide firsthand evidence on the empirical relevance of the microfoundations of different dynamic stochastic general equilibrium dsge models

asymmetric wholesale pricing theory and evidence asymmetric pricing or asymmetric price adjustment is the phenomenon where prices rise more readily than they fall we offer and provide empirical support for a new theory of asymmetric pricing in wholesale prices wholesale prices may adjust asymmetrically in the small but symmetrically in the large when retailers face cost of price adjustment such retailers will not adjust prices for small changes in their costs manufacturers then see a region of inelastic demand where small wholesale price changes do not translate into commensurate retail price changes the implication is asymmetrica small wholesale price increase is more profitable because manufacturers will not lose customers from higher retail prices yet a small decrease is less profitable because it will not lower retail prices hence there is no extra revenue from greater sales for larger changes this asymmetry in the behavior of wholesale price vanishes as the price adjustment cost is compensated by the increase in retailers revenue resulting from correspondingly large retail price changes we present a formal economic model of a channel with forward looking retailers and cost of price adjustment test the derived propositions on the behavior of manufacturer prices using a large supermarket scanner data set and find that the results are consistent with the predictions of our theory we then discuss the implications for asymmetric pricing channels and cost of price adjustment literatures as well as public policy

the effect of informal care on work and wages cross sectional evidence in the united states finds that informal caregivers have less attachment to the labor force the causal mechanism is unclear do children who work less become informal caregivers or are children who become caregivers working less using longitudinal data from the health and retirement study we identify the relationship between informal care and work in the united states both on the intensive and extensive margins and examine wage effects we control for time invariant individual heterogeneity rule out or control for endogeneity examine effects for men and women separately and analyze heterogeneous effects by task and intensity we find modest decreases 2 4 percentage points in the likelihood of working for male caregivers providing personal care female chore caregivers meanwhile are more likely to be retired for female care providers who remain working we find evidence that they decrease work by 3 10hours per week and face a 3 percent lower wage than non caregivers we find little effect of caregiving on working men s hours or wages these estimates suggest that the opportunity costs to informal care providers are important to consider when making policy recommendations about the design and funding of public long term care programs

labor market effects of marijuana and cocaine use among young men using data on marijuana and cocaine use from the 1984 national longitudinal survey of youth the authors examine the hypothesis that drug use reduces labor market productivity as measured by wages from an analysis that controls for the probability of employment and the endogeneity of drug use they find that although long term and on the job use of marijuana negatively affected wages the net productivity effect for all marijuana users both those who engaged in long term or on the job use and those who did not was positive no statistically significant association was found between cocaine use and productivity

business as usual a consumer search theory of sticky prices and asymmetric price adjustment abstract empirical evidence suggests that prices are sticky with respect to cost changes moreover prices respond more rapidly to cost increases than to cost decreases we develop a search theoretic model which is consistent with this evidence and allows for additional testable predictions our results are based on the assumption that buyers do not observe the sellers costs but know that cost changes are positively correlated across sellers in equilibrium a change in price is likely to induce consumer search which explains sticky prices moreover the signal conveyed by a price decrease is different from the signal conveyed by a price increase which explains asymmetry in price adjustment

strategic interaction among nations negotiable and non negotiable trade barriers trade policy is modelled as a two stage game between governments governments choose a negotiable trade barrier in the first stage of the game which is co operative the level of this barrier is treated as a binding commitment in the second stage of the game where the non negotiable trade barrier is chosen non co operatively hence governments choose trade barriers during negotiations with a view to influencing the equilibrium of the non co operative game to follow this proves to be a convenient framework in which to analyse the idea that trade agreements contain loopholes which can be exploited by protectionist governments trade negotiations induce substitution toward less efficient instruments of protection but are nevertheless welfare improving as long as the negotiations are relevant i e the negotiable barrier is actually in use and the two instruments are not perfect substitutes

relative price changes as aggregate supply shocks this paper proposes a theory of supply shocks or shifts in the short run phillips curve based on relative price changes and frictions in nominal price adjustment when price adjustment is costly firms adjust to large shocks but not to small shocks and so large shocks have disproportionate effects on the price level therefore aggregate inflation depends on the distribution of relative price changes inflation rises when the distribution is skewed to the right and falls when the distribution is skewed to the left we show that this theoretical result explains a large fraction of movements in postwar u s inflation moreover our model suggests measures of supply shocks that perform better than traditional measures such as the relative prices of food and energy

u s trade threats rhetoric or war working paper 95 7 the international agricultural trade research consortium is an informal association of university and government economists interested in agricultural trade its purpose is to foster interaction improve research capacity and to focus on relevant trade policy issues it is financed by united states department of agriculture ers fas and csrs agriculture canada and the participating institutions

price dynamics in uk manufacturing a microeconomic view this paper examines the response of prices to cost and demand shocks in seventy five three digit and four digit industries in the united kingdom during the 1980s the results suggest that prices responded sluggishly to costs but virtually not at all to demand the short run response to materials and fuel shocks was much larger than the response to unit labor cost shocks and some of this difference persisted into the long run prices responded more sluggishly to cost and demand shocks when aggregate inflation was lower and finally pricing dynamics were more sluggish in less competitive industries copyright 1992 by the london school of economics and political science

estimation in a class of simultaneous equation limited dependent variable models estimation in a class of simultaneous equation limited dependent variable models is considered the minimum chi squared method is used to compare the asymptotic relative efficiency of marginal and new conditional maximum likelihood estimators for this class of models efficient minimum chi squared estimation procedures are described a two step algorithm based on a conditional maximum likelihood estimator provides a natural framework for both computing a linearized and locating the joint maximum likelihood estimator the unimodality of the simultaneous equation tobit likelihood function is proved and this model is used to illustrate the empirical application of some of the estimators considered in the paper the relative efficiency of these estimators in the simultaneous equation tobit model is examined in a set of monte carlo experiments many applications of microeconomic theory to individual data face the joint problems of censoring and simultaneity in particular the dependent variable under investigation may not be continuously observed and some of the conditioning variables representing the outcome of other decisions by the individual may be simultaneously determined smith and blundell 1986 developed an asymptotically efficient test for exogeneity or simultaneity in the simultaneous equation tobit model as a byproduct a conditional maximum likelihood estimator was obtained which is consistent under the alternative hypothesis of simultaneity nelson and olsen 1978 amemiya 1978 1979 and heckman 1978 consider a number of consistent marginal maximum likelihood estimators based on marginal maximum likelihood estimators of the reduced form parameters for the probit and tobit models in contrast the estimator derived from smith and blundell 1986 is based on the corresponding conditional maximum likelihood estimators this paper is concerned with estimation in a class of simultaneous limited dependent variable regression models which includes the simultaneous probit and tobit models as special cases analogous marginal and conditional maximum likelihood estimators to those of nelson and olsen 1978 amemiya 1978 1979 heckman 1978 and smith and blundell 1986 are derived and other new estimators are suggested the minimum chi squared approach discussed by ferguson 1958 malinvaud 1970 and rothenberg 1973 is used to compare the asymptotic relative efficiency of various estimators considered a simple two step algorithm based on the conditional maximum likelihood

price response asymmetric information and competition we compare predictions from a theoretical model based on the structure of the main outdoor retail market in jerusalem with the results of an empirical analysis of price response to changes in cost we find that firms without adjacent competition exhibit both upward and downward price rigidity an outcome we ascribe to asymmetric information between the consumer and the firm given that previous studies have focused on downward price rigidities of firms with market power our findings highlight the importance of accounting for transitory information asymmetries between the consumer and the firm when studying price rigidity

price flexibility in channels of distribution evidence from scanner data in this study we empirically examine the extent of price rigidity using a unique store level time series data set consisting of i actual retail transaction prices ii actual wholesale transaction prices which represent both the retailers costs and the prices received by manufacturers and iii a measure of manufacturers costs for 12 goods in two widely used consumer product categories we simultaneously examine the extent of price rigidity for each of the 12 products at both final goods and intermediate goods levels we study two notions of price rigidity employed in the existing literature i the frequency of price changes and ii the response of prices to exogenous cost changes we find that retail prices exhibit remarkable flexibility in terms of both notions of price rigidity i e they change frequently and they seem to respond quickly and fully to cost changes furthermore we find that retail prices respond not just to their direct costs but also to the upstream manufacturers costs which further reinforces the extent of the retail price flexibility at the intermediate goods level of the market in contrast we find relatively more evidence of rigidity in the response of manufacturers prices to cost changes this despite the fact that wholesale prices change frequently and therefore exhibit flexibility according to the first notion of price rigidity

do hmo plans reduce health care expenditure in the private sector i introduction since the hmo act was passed in 1973 health maintenance organizations hmos have become one of the most popular types of managed care plans in the u s health delivery system faced with a dramatic increase in health care costs hmos are designed to implement a tight utilization review and authorization process along with restricted choice of providers as a means of managing utilization and quality by comparing health care expenditure patterns of hmo members with those of non hmo members among the privately insured nonelderly population this study seeks to understand the impact that hmos have on health care expenditure in the private insurance sector our data come from the 2000 medical expenditure panel survey meps a nationally representative survey of the u s civilian noninstitutionalized population despite the dramatic growth in the number and proportion of individuals enrolled in private hmo plans much of existing research on this issue has focused on the relationship between hmo enrollment and use of health care services miller and luft 1994 2002 whereas only a limited number of studies have been conducted on the role of prevalent hmo enrollment in saving health care expenditure kralewski et al 2000 analyses on expenditure performance are mostly carried out on the performance of the medicaid or medicare managed care plans buchanan et al 1996 mello et al 2002 this study extends previous research in several ways first rather than using localized or insurance group wise data johnson and aquilina 1986 kralewski et al 2000 mclaughlin et al 1983 mclaughlin 1987 robinson 1996 or employer data baker and corts 1996 feldman et al 1993 we use data provided directly by hmo members through nationally representative surveys second by using decomposed expenditure data we are able to ascertain whether the provision of financial incentives to both consumers and providers in hmo plans makes any differences in medical care expenditure by each party compared with traditional plans furthermore by testing the hypothesis of selectivity in health insurance choice we try to avoid the biased findings that often find in favor of hmo plans trends and relevance during the past two decades the number of hmo enrollees has proliferated from 9 1 million 4 of the total population in 1980 to 76 1 million 26 4 in 2001 health united states 2003 between 1977 and 2001 the percentage of the u s population under age 65 that joined private insurance hmos increased dramatically from 3 7 to 27 9 table 1 over the same time period per capita national health expenditure increased from 1 980 to 4 773 in 1995 constant dollars and total national health expenditure as a percentage of gross domestic product rose from 8 8 to 14 1 out of total national health expenditure the share of private expenditure decreased from 57 3 to 54 1 motivated by the prevalence of hmos in the private insurance market and the insufficiency in understanding its cost containment performance we investigate the patterns of health care expenditure among hmo members to understand whether hmos contribute to limiting medical expenditure relative to non hmo arrangement there are two main complications to our empirical analysis the first is selection bias due to endogenous health plan choice decisions previous studies buchanan and cretin 1986 jackson beeck and kleinman 1983 suggest that the utilization reduction effect of hmos may be a consequence of the selective enrollment of a healthier population in hmo plans rather than the more efficient medical care delivery management of hmos thus we first estimate the probit model of health insurance plan choice decisions and test this hypothesis in line with the analysis of taylor et al 1995 the second complication is that the dependent variables are nonnegative with a high frequency of zero observations

why are prices sticky the dynamics of wholesale gasoline prices the menu cost interpretation of sticky prices implies that the probability of a price change should depend on the past history of prices and fundamentals only through the gap between the current price and the frictionless price we find that this prediction is broadly consistent with the behavior of nine philadelphia gasoline wholesalers nevertheless we reject the menu cost model as a literal description of these firms behavior arguing instead that price stickiness arises from strategic considerations of how customers and competitors will react to price changes

income and the use of prescription drugs by the elderly evidence from the notch cohorts we use exogenous variation in social security payments created by the social security benefits notch to estimate how retirees use of prescription medications responds to changes in their incomes using data from the 1993 wave of the ahead we obtain instrumental variables estimates of the income elasticity of prescription drug use that are uniformly above 1 00 with a middle estimate of 1 32 simulations based on our estimates suggest that reductions in social security benefits similar to those incorporated in recent reform proposals would significantly reduce prescription drug use among the elderly

trade disputes and the implementation of protection under the gatt an empirical assessment abstract this paper is a first attempt to empirically determine why countries choose to violate or adhere to gatt rules when making trade policy adjustments between negotiating rounds we use a previously unexploited set of data in which countries implemented two types of protection under the gatt system between 1973 and 1994 i legal protection in which countries utilized the gatt s safeguards provisions and ii illegal protection in which the protection was provided outside of the safeguards provisions resulting in a formal trade dispute we find substantial evidence that concerns for retaliation affect government policy decisions in ways which contribute to the explanation of the existence of trade disputes

some evidence on lump sum versus convex costs of changing prices 2 two models in which price stickiness results from price adjustment costs are tested one an s s pricing model assumes lump sum adjustment costs and predicts firms will make relatively large infrequent price changes the other assumes convex adjustment costs and predicts frequent partial price adjustments survey data of firms price behavior reveal patterns consistent with the s s model however many of the patterns are also consistent with partial adjustment rules although the high percentage of firms which fix prices for a quarter or more casts doubt on the plausibility of the partialadjustment hypothesis i introduction in new keynesian economics price stickiness arises not because of wage rigidity so much as because either the gains to individual firms from changing prices are negligible or the costs of doing so deter full and immediate price changes as a result nominal shocks which affect demand for the firm s product as well as real shocks give rise to changes in output the nature and the timing of the effects of demand changes such as those initiated by monetary policy thus depend on how individual firms respond to the signals they receive sticky price models based on costs of price adjustment take at least two different forms one assumes a lump sum cost to changing prices which leads to predictions that firms generally keep prices fixed and make infrequent relatively large price changes the other assumes convex adjustment costs and leads to the prediction that firms make relatively small and frequent partial adjustments toward a target level evidence drawn from a series of surveys conducted by the national federation of independent business will be used to test the predictions from these two types of models while the data do not allow a definitive test between the two models the available evidence supports the model with lump sum costs of changing prices with the important proviso that there be substantial heterogeneity in the relative costs to firms of making price changes so that the frequency and size of changes vary considerably across firms ii s s rules with lump sum costs of price changes how frequently should a firm change its price when a change takes place how large should it be sheshinski and weiss 1977 and barro 1972 provided the first answers to these questions in their models an individual firm incurs a lump sum cost when changing its nominal price and the firm s profits depend on its real price where real price is defined as the firm s nominal price divided by an index of the prices of all other firms in the economy sheshinski and weiss assume that the firm tries to maximize the present value of its real profits their solution amounts to what is known in the optimal inventory literature as an s s rule in which s s units are ordered when stocks run down to s as applied to a pricing rule when prices rise elsewhere in the economy the firm s real price falls to a lower bound s at which point the firm raises its nominal price so that its real price jumps to s they prove that a more rapid general inflation rate calls for a lower s and higher s furthermore subject to a monotonicity condition a higher general inflation rate calls for a shorter time between price changes after showing a number of numerical examples sheshinski and weiss report that numerical experiments with a quadratic profit function give high intervals between price changes 1 2 years even with very low adjustment costs 1977 300 when the profit function is flat in the neighborhood of the profit maximizing real price there is little benefit from changing price a similar argument appears in the menu cost explanation for real effects of nominal disturbances in the absence of private incentives for individual price changes there may be real aggregate effects of nominal disturbances for example see mankiw 1985 akerlof and yellen 1985 kuran 1986 blanchard and kiyotaki 1987

the effect of income on mortality evidence from the social security notch abstract legislation in the 1970s created a notch in social security payments with those born after january 1 1917 receiving sharply lower benefits using restricted use versions of the national mortality detail file combined with census data we use this quasi experiment to examine the income mortality link in an elderly population estimates from difference in difference and regression discontinuity models show the higher income group has a statistically significantly higher mortality rate contradicting the previous literature we also found that younger cohorts responded to lower incomes by increasing postretirement work effort suggesting that moderate employment has beneficial health effects for the elderly

costs demand and producer price changes abstract using business survey data we estimate an ordered probit model to explain the occurrence of producer price increases and decreases in the french manufacturing industry our results show that changes in intermediate input prices are the main driver of producer price changes changes in firms labor costs their production level or the producer price index of their industry contribute less to the occurrence of price changes moreover when they face a change in their costs firms adjust their prices upward more often and more rapidly than they do it downward especially when the shock is perceived as permanent

social security income and health care spending evidence from the social security notch the paper exploits social security legislation changes to identify the causal effect of social security income on out of pocket medical expenditures of the elderly using the 1986 1994 consumer expenditure survey and an instrumental variables strategy the empirical results show that health care expenditures are responsive to changes in social security income for elderly individuals with less than a high school education the estimated income elasticities are between 1 41 and 3 47 depending on the outcome measures and are statistically significant at conventional levels the findings are in contrast to existing studies that find a small income elasticity at the individual household level this article is protected by copyright all rights reserved

low inflation pass through and the pricing power of firms abstract recently there has been a significant decline in the degree to which firms pass through changes in costs to prices a decline that is frequently characterized as a reduction in the pricing power of firms the decline appears to be associated with the decline in inflation in many countries the decline has important implications for monetary policy because it affects both forecasts of inflation and the effects of changes in monetary policy on inflation some have argued that the decline in pricing power helped to keep inflation low in the face of apparently strong demand pressures in the united states in the late 1990s this paper puts forth the view that the decline in pass through or pricing power is due to the low inflation environment that has recently been achieved in many countries first a microeconomic model of price setting is used to show that lower pass through is caused by lower perceived persistence of cost changes evidence is then presented showing that inflation is positively correlated with persistence of inflation suggesting that the low inflation itself has caused the low pass through an economy wide model consistent with the micromodel is then presented to illustrate how such changes in pricing power affect output and inflation dynamics in favorable ways but can disappear quickly if monetary policy and expectations change

the effect of social security on labor supply a cohort analysis of the notch generation this article uses aggregate birth year calendar year level data derived from the current population survey cps to estimate the effect of social security wealth on the labor supply of older men in the 1970s and 1980s the analysis focuses on measuring the impact of the 1977 amendments to the social security act which created a substantial unanticipated reduction in social security wealth for individuals born after 1916 this differential in benefits has become known as the benefit notch results indicate that labor supply continued to decline for the notch babies who received lower social security benefits than earlier cohorts

modeling multiple sources of heterogeneity in multinomial logit models methodological and managerial issues we offer a framework to specify and estimate various sources of heterogeneity in multinomial logit brand choice models we let each brand specific intercept and each parameter of the explanatory variable vector vary randomly across households in addition we distinguish loyal households from the rest our results suggest that incorporating multiple sources of heterogeneity improves the model fit and suggests higher impact of marketing mix elements on brand choice we highlight the importance of incorporating multiple sources of heterogeneity the model we implement yields valuable managerial insights

social security and elderly living arrangements evidence from the social security notch previous studies of the effect of social security on elderly living arrangements generally have relied on data from the distant past or differences in benefits across families or cohorts that potentially were correlated with other determinants of living arrangements using data from the 1980 99 current population surveys we attempt to isolate the causal effect of social security on living arrangements with an instrumental variable approach that relies on the large shifts in benefits for cohorts born from 1910 21 the socalled social security notch over all elderly households the estimated elasticity of living with others with respect to social security income is 0 4 with elasticities of 1 3 and 1 4 for the widowed and divorced respectively most of the effects on living arrangements appear to be concentrated among the lesser educated as well our estimated elasticities are substantially larger than those from previous studies and suggest that reductions in current benefits would alter living arrangements significantly

the real thing nominal price rigidity of the nickel coke 1886 1959 we report that the price of a 6 5 oz coca cola was 5c from 1886 until 1959 thus we are documenting a nominal price rigidity that lasted more than 70 years the case of coca cola is particularly interesting because during the 70 year period there were substantial changes in the soft drink industry as well as two world wars the great depression and numerous regulatory interventions and lawsuits which led to substantial changes in the coca cola market conditions the nickel price of coke nevertheless remained unchanged we find that this unusual rigidity is best explained by 1 a contract between the company and its parent bottlers that encouraged retail price maintenance 2 a single coin vending machine technology which limited the company s price adjustment options due to limited availability and unreliability of the existing flexible price adjustment technologies and 3 a single coin monetary transaction technology which limited the company s price adjustment options due to the customer inconvenience cost we show that these price adjustment costs are of a different nature than the standard menu cost and their estimates exceed the existing estimates by an order of magnitude a possible broader relevance of the nickel coke phenomenon is discussed in the context of nickel and dime stores which were popular in the us in the late 1800s and the early 1900s

antidumping and retaliation threats abstract we propose and test two ways in which retaliation threats may dampen the antidumping ad activity we observe first the threat of retaliatory ad actions may make a domestic industry less likely to name a foreign import source in an ad petition second the prospect of a gatt wto trade dispute may make government agencies less likely to rule positive in their ad decision using a nested logit framework we find evidence that both retaliation threats substantially affect us ad activity from 1980 through 1998

do countries free ride on mfn abstract the most favored nation mfn clause has long been suspected of creating a free rider problem in multilateral trade negotiations to address this issue we model multilateral negotiations as a mechanism design problem with voluntary participation we show that an optimal mechanism induces only the largest exporters to participate in negotiations over any product thus providing a rationalization for the principal supplier rule we also show that through this channel equilibrium tariffs vary according to the herfindahl hirschman index of export shares higher concentration in a sector reduces free riding and thus causes a lower tariff estimation of our model using sector level tariff data for the u s provides strong support for this relationship

an exogeneity test for a simultaneous equation tobit model with an application to labor supply a test of weak exogeneity in the simultaneous equation tobit model is proposed and illustrated using a female labour supply model estimated using cross section data the test statistic can be simply output from any standard tobit maximum likelihood package and is asymptotically efficient the procedure provides consistent estimators for the simultaneous tobit model whose asymptotic covariance matrix is a simple extension of the usual tobit formula we also provide the lagrange multiplier test of weak exogeneity this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

do gasoline prices respond asymmetrically to crude oil price changes the authors test and confirm that retail gasoline prices respond more quickly to increases than to decreases in crude oil prices among the possible sources of this asymmetry are production inventory adjustment lags and market power of some sellers by analyzing price transmission at different points in the distribution chain the authors attempt to shed light on these theories spot prices for generic gasoline show asymmetry in responding to crude oil price changes which may reflect inventory adjustment effects asymmetry also appears in the response of retail prices to wholesale price changes possibly indicating short run market power among retailers

state dependent pricing and the dynamics of money and output standard macroeconomic models of price stickiness assume that each firm leaves its price unchanged for a fixed amount of time we present an alternative model in which the pricing decision depends on the state of the economy we find a method of aggregating individual price changes that allows a simple characterization of macroeconomic variables the model produces a positive money output correlation and an empirical phillips curve in addition the impact of monetary shocks depends crucially on the current level of output which points to a natural connection between state dependent microeconomics and state dependent macroeconomics i introduction there is a long tradition in macroeconomics of attributing the real effects of nominal demand shocks to nominal price stickiness in this view if there is no change in prices when nominal demand rises then quantities must bear the burden of adjustment hence nominal price rigidity provides the friction needed for nominal demand shocks to be transmitted to the real economy standard models of this transmission mechanism such as fischer 1977 and taylor 1980 are based on the assumption that each firm leaves its price unchanged for a fixed amount of time the main reason for considering such time dependent pricing rules is their analytic tractability constraining firms to adjust their prices at prespecified times both simplifies the derivation of equilibrium strategies and allows the use of powerful time series techniques to analyze aggregate dynamics the main disadvantage of the timedependent approach is that between price adjustments firms are not allowed to respond even to extreme changes of circumstance this makes it difficult to know whether the qualitative effects of money in these models are the result of nominal rigidities per se or of the exogenously imposed pattern of price changes an alternative approach to modeling price stickiness is to allow the price setting decision to depend on the actual state of the

the effect of physician advice on alcohol consumption count regression with an endogenous treatment effect although there are encouraging trends alcohol abuse continues to be a significant public health problem econometric studies of alcohol demand have yielded a great deal of information for alcohol abuse prevention policy these studies suggest that higher alcohol taxes and stricter drunk driving policies can reduce heavy drinking and drunk driving in this paper we explore the role physician advice plays in the campaign to prevent alcohol related problems compared to alcohol taxation physician advice is a more precisely targeted intervention that does not impose extra costs on responsible drinkers compared to the resource costs of arresting processing and punishing drunk drivers physician advice may be a lower cost intervention to provide a basis for alcohol policy analysis we use an alcohol demand framework to test whether physician provided information about the adverse consequences of alcohol abuse shifts demand to more moderate levels there are three aspects of our alcohol demand model that complicate the estimation 1 the dependent variable is non negative it is a count variable number of drinks consumed 2 a non trivial number of sample observations have zero values for the dependent variable and 3 because the data we use is non experimental the treatment variable indicating receipt of advice from a physician may be endogenous we implement an estimation method that is specifically designed to deal with these three complicating factors our results show that advice has a substantial and significant impact on alcohol consumption by males with hypertension and that failing to account for the endogeneity of advice masks this result copyright 2001 john wiley sons ltd

inter vivos transfers and exchange most parents divide their bequests equally among their children whereas inter vivos transfers are usually unequal we propose that exchange is better for inducing inter vivos transfers than bequests inter vivos transfers can be adjusted quickly to the amount of care are less costly than writing a will and can be kept secret from other family members and the public the results from national longitudinal data show that as expected if a parent gives any inter vivos transfers she is more likely to give to children who provide informal care informal care has no effect on the equality of intended bequests

endogeneity in brand choice models applications of random utility models to scanner data have been widely presented in marketing for the last 20 years one particular problem with these applications is that they have ignored possible correlations between the independent variables in the deterministic component of utility price promotion etc and the stochastic component or error term in fact marketing mix variables such as price not only affect brand purchasing probabilities but are themselves endogenously set by marketing managers this work tests whether these endogeneity problems are important enough to warrant consideration when estimating random utility models with scanner panel data our results show that not accounting for endogeneity may result in a substantial bias in the parameter estimates

a probabilistic choice model for market segmentation and elasticity structure marketing scholars commonly characterize market structure by studying the patterns of substitution implied by brand switching though the approach is useful it typically ignores the destabilizing

the effects of regulation and competition in the nhs internal market the case of general practice fundholder prices the 1989 reforms of the uk national health service introduced competition in supply within a tightly regulated framework the paper examines whether this competition affects the prices posted by sellers of medical services we argue that despite regulation market forces may have an impact on price we test this using the posted prices for one of the two types of buyer general practice fundholders we find the regulatory rules are not observed and some evidence of the impact of market forces on price

a test of the structure of pac contracts an analysis of house gun control votes in the 1980s enactment of the bill was a major victory for the national rifle association which had worked for years to win relaxation of the landmark gun control act of 1968 congressional quarterly almanac 1986 p 82 i introduction every election the same political action committees pacs contribute millions of dollars to candidates for office well informed participants in the political process surely must get value for their money yet empirical research fails to provide systematic evidence that campaign contributions influence congressional roll call votes 1 a mischaracterization of the exchange between pacs and politicians may produce these contradictory results empirical studies of roll call voting typically use pac contributions from only one election cycle earlier studies generally assume prepayment in the prior congress while more contemporary studies assume a spot exchange recent empirical work however suggests another possibility interest groups may buy current influence with money spent over multiple election cycles stratmann 1995 shows that contributions from both the current and the previous election cycles influence floor votes on agricultural price supports snyder 1990 1992 presents evidence that interest groups make long term investments in politicians previous studies by arbitrarily imposing a payment structure may have produced erroneous estimates of the influence of pac money on legislative votes we examine roll call votes on gun control in the u s house of representatives during the 1980s to determine whether pacs make spot market purchases prepay for votes in the prior election cycle or make long term investments we investigate whether pac contributions have a durable long term investment effect as snyder 1992 suggests we consider two types of evidence concerning the campaign contribution contract first we examine the pattern of expenditures by the two dominant interest groups concerned with gun control the national rifle association nra and hand gun control hgc their expenditures provide strong evidence against the spot market exchange hypothesis both groups made significant expenditures in sessions of congress in which no floor vote occurred nor were these expenditures purchasing services such as committee work in a spot market exchange further 1986 nra expenditures are significantly higher for first term representatives which is consistent with long term investments but contradicts a spot exchange since freshmen have the least influence to sell second we include expenditures from both the current and the five previous election cycles as separate independent variables in a model of roll call voting to date no empirical paper tests whether pac money from more than two cycles influences roll call voting and only stratmann 1995 and grenzke 1989 use a model that specifies money from more than one cycle in an equation explaining roll call votes our probit estimates indicate that nra expenditures in the three most recent election cycles and hgc expenditures in the two most recent cycles buy votes the independent effect of expenditures from different cycles suggests that contributions are neither an unqualified one session prepayment nor a spot exchange the influence of nra expenditures two sessions prior to the roll call votes is evidence of a long term investment the literature on the determinants of roll call voting assumes that pac contributions alter representatives votes interest groups might instead simply provide campaign assistance to their supporters to affect the composition of congress stratmann 1991 bronars and lott 1997 if a difficult to quantify variable and thus omitted from regressions signals a representative s true position and interest groups make campaign contributions on the basis of this variable pac contributions might appear to influence votes the pattern of contributions and votes on gun control however indicates attempts by the nra and hgc to influence votes not merely the composition of congress

income and the utilization of long term care services evidence from the social security benefit notch this paper estimates the impact of income on the long term care utilization of elderly americans using a natural experiment that led otherwise similar retirees to receive significantly different social security payments based on their year of birth using data from the 1993 and 1995 waves of the ahead we estimate instrumental variables models and find that a positive permanent income shock lowers nursing home use but increases the utilization of paid home care services we find some suggestive evidence that the effects are due to substitution of home care for nursing home utilization the magnitude of these estimates suggests that moderate reductions in post retirement income would significantly alter long term utilization patterns among elderly individuals

predetermined prices and the persistent effects of money on output this note illustrates a model of predetermined pricing where firms set a fixed schedule of nominal prices at the time of price readjustment based on the work of fischer 1977 this contrasts with the model of fixed pricing the specification underlying most recent dynamic sticky price models it is well known that predetermined pricing cannot generate substantial persistence in the real effects of monetary shocks when prices are set via fixed duration contracts unless the contracts are of long duration however we show that with a probabilistic model of price adjustment a predetermined pricing specification can produce almost as much persistence as the more conventional model of fixed prices without the assumption of long average contract duration

estimating the moral hazard effect of supplemental medical insurance in the demand for prescription drugs by the elderly almost all persons over the age of 65 are insured under the medicare program for inpatient drug consumption this national insurance plan does not however generally cover the purchase of outpatient prescription drugs rx in 1992 more than onethird of all outpatient drug expenditures in the united states were incurred by medicare enrollees yet approximately 50 percent of the elderly did not have any coverage for this type of treatment daniel waldo 1994 in response to this and other gaps in medicare coverage private firms have offered insurance instruments specifically designed to fill such voids commonly known as medigap policies in addition to this form of financial protection contingent upon state of residency and economic status elderly persons may qualify and obtain coverage for rx through medicaid or a state sponsored drug program however even with these incomeand wealth sensitive options many relatively poor elderly are faced with significant outof pocket drug expenditures coverage is concentrated among those elderly with income over 200 percent of poverty and those below the poverty line stephen long 1994 the most vulnerable elderly seem to be protected from the financial hardship of excessive rx expenses through medicaid coverage but private supplemental insurance is potentially too expensive for seniors near the poverty line to alleviate this burden 11 states currently offer some form of rx insurance that is targeted at those elderly or disabled persons who are relatively poor but do not qualify for medicaid at the national level policymakers and interest groups have advocated adding coverage to the medicare program to assess such programmatic changes an accurate forecast of the potential change in rx usage is needed in this paper we use a 1990 sample of medicare enrolled pennsylvanians who may have private medigap insurance or coverage under the state s rx program to estimate the amount by which the rx demand of the average individual would change in the presence of insurance coverage ceteris paribus such a residual increase in the consumption of a medical commodity has been labeled the moralhazard effect of health insurance the estimation of this effect requires a nonstandard regression technique because insurance coverage for rx and those types of treatments that are complementary or substitutable for prescriptions may be endogenously determined those persons with a higher demand for drugs are more likely to demand supplemental insurance for rx coulson and terza department of economics pennsylvania state university university park pa 16802 neslusan division of economic research at the social security administration 4301 connecticut avenue n w washington dc 20008 stuart department of health policy and administration pennsylvania state university university park pa 16802 funding for survey design and implementation used in this research was supported by grants from the pew charitable trusts and the health care financing administration grant no 88 01439 001 the views expressed herein are not necessarily endorsed by either these agencies or the social security administration 1the now repealed medicare catastrophic coverage act of 1988 as well as many of the recent healthcare reform proposals would have provided for outpatient rx coverage for the elderly 122

illegal drug use and employment this article investigates the relationship between employment and the use of marijuana and cocaine for males in national longitudinal survey of youth data from 1984 and 1988 previous studies yielding mixed evidence may have inadequately accounted for the simultaneity between drug consumption and employment i implement an instrumental variable procedure that identifies drug use with variables that are empirically unrelated to employment including the regional cocaine price and a state marijuana decriminalization indicator results indicate that the use of each drug substantially reduces the likelihood of employment exogeneity tests reveal that standard probit estimates are severely biased toward zero

the labour market costs of community care this paper reports an empirical investigation into the influence of informal care responsibilities on the labour supply of women the objective is to examine the argument that the uk policy of caring for the chronic sick in the community involves a nontrivial opportunity cost in the form of the forgone labour supply of the informal carers upon which it relies we find that informal carers who care for less than 20 h per week are in fact more likely to participate in the labour market but tend to work for fewer hours per week than otherwise similar noncarers informal carers who care for 20 h or more a week are less likely to participate but only slightly however when they do undertake formal employment they tend to earn less per hour and work for fewer hours per week

the march of an economic idea protectionism isn t counter cyclic anymore conventional wisdom holds that protectionism is counter cyclic tariffs quotas and the like grow during recessions while that may have been a valid description of the data before the first world war it is now inaccurate since the second world war protectionism has not been counter cyclic tariffs and non tariff barriers simply do not rise systematically during downturns i document this new stylised fact with a panel of data covering over 180 countries and 40 years using over a dozen measures of protectionism and six of business cycles i test and reject a number of potential reasons why protectionism is no longer counter cyclic a diagnosis of exclusion leads me to believe that modern economics may well be responsible for the decline in protectionism s cyclic behaviour economists are more united in their disdain for protectionism than virtually any other concept this in turn leaves one optimistic that the level of protectionism will continue to decline along with its cyclicality andrew k rose

social security income and the utilization of home care evidence from the social security notch this paper exploits social security law changes to identify the effect of social security income on the use of formal and informal home care by the elderly results from an instrumental variables estimation strategy show that as retirement income increases elderly individuals increase their use of formal home care and become less likely to rely on informal home care provided to them by their children this negative effect on informal home care is most likely driven by male children withdrawing from their caregiving roles the empirical results also suggest that higher social security benefits would encourage the use of formal home care by those who would not have otherwise used any type of home care and would also encourage the use of both types of home care services among elderly individuals

economic fluctuations market power and returns to scale evidence from firm level data recent research on aggregate fluctuations coupled with ongoing work in industrial organization has renewed interest in the existence magnitude and cyclical pattern of market power and the extent of increasing returns to scale by exploiting restrictions from dynamic theory and information from financial markets we present a framework for generating quantitative evidence on market power and returns to scale tailoring the econometric model to firm level panel data we calculate the percentage differential between price and marginal cost the lerner index in terms of the parameters from the econometric system results for firms in eleven industries indicate that there is a great deal of heterogeneity in the extent of market power industries with significantly positive lerner indices tend to have substantial increasing returns in the production technology we find that there is only a modest relation between our estimated lerner indices and traditional measures of market power and that when market power varies temporally it is usually procyclical thus variations in the markup of price over marginal cost may help dampen aggregate economic fluctuations

intermediate goods and business cycles implications for productivity and welfare this paper presents an aggregate demand driven model of business cycles that provides a new explanation for the procyclicality of productivity and simultaneously predicts large welfare losses from monetary nonneutrality the key features of the model are an input output production structure imperfect competition countercyclical markups and for some results state dependent price rigidity true technical efficiency is procyclical even though production takes place with constant returns without technology shocks or technological externalities the paper has observable implications that distinguish it empirically from related work these implications are generally supported by data from u s manufacturing industries copyright 1995 by american economic association

new classical macroeconomics a sympathetic account the essential ingredients of new classical nc macroeconomics are 1 adoption of the equilibrium approach to model construction 2 acceptance of the natural rate hypothesis 3 a belief in the superiority of policy based on rules and 4 a strong skepticism regarding the empirical relevance for macroeconomic issues of rational bubble phenomena recent keynesian analyses stressing the interaction of monopolistic competition with pricechange menu costs are not incompatible with the nc approach but have not been highly successful a nc policy strategy that recognizes current weaknesses in macroeconomic understanding is described and rationalized and an analytical basis for nc skepticism regarding bubbles sunspots etc is outlined

optimal pricing with costly adjustment evidence from retail grocery prices in many theoretical models it is assumed that there are costs associated with adjusting prices in this paper the existence type and magnitude of such costs are investigated empirically a discrete choice dynamic programming model that nests fixed and variable costs is developed and econometric estimates of the adjustment cost function are obtained the data used to implement the model consist of weekly retail prices and sales of three brands of saltine crackers sold by four chains of grocery stores in a small u s town the study has several distinguishing characteristics first the data are highly disaggregate at the level of brand and store second variables are sampled at weekly intervals third the model nests fixed and variable adjustment costs and can therefore determine their relative importance finally the discrete choice model is both structural and dynamic

quality perceptions and asymmetric switching between brands rotating indifference curves are used to induce an income effect that favors superior brands at the expense of inferior brands in a discrete choice model when calibrated on scanner panel data the model yields an objective measure of brand quality which is related to the rate of rotation the model also leads to asymmetric responses to price promotions where switching up to high quality brands is more likely than switching down the model is capable of nesting the standard logit model and is similar to a nested logit model when there exists clusters of brands of like quality the model is used to explore a product line pricing decision where profits are maximized subject to the constraint that consumer utility is maintained

heterogeneity in price rigidity evidence from a case study using microlevel data we combine two data sets to study price rigidity the first consists of weekly time series of retail wholesale and spot prices for twelve products these time series contain two exogenous cost shocks we find that prices exhibit more rigidity in response to the second shock than the first the second data set consists of all publicly available information about the shocks content analysis of these information reveals that the first shock is larger and more persistent and the market has more information on it than the second we conclude therefore that prices are more flexible in response to cost shocks that are larger that are more persistent and on which market participants have more information

sticky prices in a dynamic oligopoly an investigation of s s thresholds abstract the strategic implications of costly price adjustment are investigated empirically i assume that managers are engaged in a state space game and ask if the dynamic considerations that arise when they condition their choices on the state cause prices to be more or less rigid than when players use more myopic pricing rules the answer to this question depends on a parametric specification of the problem that lends itself to empirical assessment the micro panel data used to investigate this issue consist of weekly prices sales costs and promotional activity for three brands of saltine crackers sold by four chains of grocery stores in a small us town i find that in this market strategic behavior exacerbates price rigidity the thresholds are wider and the time between changes is longer than would be observed in a more myopic setting

trade policy under the gatt wto empirical evidence of the equal treatment rule a fundamental difference between multilateral trade agreements like the gatt and wto and a preferential agreement is the multilateral agreements inclusion of a most favoured nation principle though mfn requires that members implement policies that provide equal treatment to all gatt wto countries how far do members actually follow the mfn principle when so required we empirically investigate a sample of gatt wto trade disputes and the effect of successful dispute settlement negotiations on the disputed product trade of third country exporters to the defendant country we document evidence of trade liberalization consistent with defendant countries successfully applying the equal treatment rule jel classification f13 politique commerciale sous le regime gatt omc resultats empiriques de la regle du traitement equivalent une difference fondamentale entre les accords commerciaux multilateraux comme le gatt ou l omc et un accord preferentiel est que dans le premier cas on fait appel au principe de la nation la plus favorisee meme si ce principe requiert que les membres mettent en place des politiques qui assurent un traitement equivalent a tous les pays de l accord gatt omc reste a savoir jusqu a quel point les membres se soumettent a ce principe quand c est requis ce memoire etudie la question en faisant enquete sur un echantillon de disputes commerciales autour d accords de type gatt omc et sur l effet du succes des negociations dans la resolution de conflit sur le commerce du produit au caeur de la dispute en provenance de pays tiers exportant vers le pays qui se defend on montre que les resultats de la liberalisation du commerce sont consistants avec l application de la regle du traitement equivalent par les pays qui se defendent

linking individual and aggregate price changes this paper studies the implications of lumpiness and heterogeneity in microeconomic pricing decisions for dynamics in price aggregates to capture the latent deviation between actual and target prices it develops a semi structural empirical model of two sided s s price setting applying the model to a unique panel of store level retail prices reveals that fluctuations in the shape of cross sectional price deviation densities contain extra information on aggregate price change dynamics asymmetry in the density particularly matters idiosyncratic shocks magnify the size but do not alter the direction of aggregate fluctuations when the target price is proxied by the cross store mean price the link between inflation and the price deviation density disappears

how firms construct price changes evidence from restaurant responses to increased minimum wages we use price data underlying the consumer price index to assess how restaurants whose prices are generally quite sticky respond to minimum wage increases aggregate prices rise quickly by amounts reflecting the increase in costs and they rise more among fast food outlets and in low wage locations but restaurants do not construct price increases by raising all their prices by amounts reflecting the increase in wages instead they raise only some prices but by larger amounts prices at cluster points are less likely to be changed and prices that were recently increased decreased are less more likely to be raised

money and economic activity inventories and business cycles abstract incomplete information is a necessary condition for any real effects produced by monetary impulses an alternative to the local global inference problem is explored in this paper agents are confronted with permanent and transitory shocks even with full knowledge about the stochastic structure their best perception at any particular time will usually be erroneous prices for each period are set at the beginning of the period on the basis of market conditions the realization of the shock process thus creates a short run disequilibrium absorbed by inventory adjustments this adjustment translates perceived transitory monetary shocks into serially correlated output movements the analysis proceeds within the context of rational expectations it offers a generalization of equilibrium analysis in two respects prices are always in equilibrium relative to perceived conditions but they do not reflect all ongoing shocks quantity adjustments reflect the perceived transitory shocks the framework used involves moreover a stock flow interaction operated by inventory adjustments the stock flow interaction imposes at any time a future expected adjustment path for price level and quantities to the system s unique stock equilibrium a major implication of the analysis resolves a puzzle experienced in a recent paper by robert hall it reconciles intertemporal substitution with lagged effects of monetary impulses it also reconciles small and inconclusive cyclic movements in real wages with the occurrence of production function and large variations in unemployment lastly the nature of the inference problem determined by the pattern of incomplete information produces serially correlated movements conditioned on large permanent shocks

the rationality and price effects of u s department of agriculture forecasts of oranges this article examines the effect of public information on the orange juice market we investigate the rationality information content and price effects of u s department of agriculture forecasts of the production of oranges u s department of agriculture forecasts are found to be unbiased and efficient the first forecast contains the most new information and subsequent reports become valuable only when freezes occur significant price movements occur in response to announced production in both florida and california however the majority of price variations cannot be explained by these movements in supply

market structure and the nature of price rigidity evidence from the market for consumer deposits panel data on consumer bank deposit interest rates reveal asymmetric impacts of market concentration on the dynamic adjustment of prices to shocks banks in concentrated markets are slower to raise interest rates on deposits in response to rising market interest rates but are faster to reduce them in response to declining market interest rates thus banks with market power skim off surplus on movements in both directions since deposit interest rates are inversely related to the price charged by banks for deposits the results suggest that downward price rigidity and upward price flexibility are a consequence of market concentration

investigating heterogeneity in brand preferences in logit models for panel data in analyzing panel data the issue of heterogeneity across households is an important consideration if heterogeneity is present but is ignored in the analysis it will result in biased and inconsi

rigidities and adjustments of daily prices to costs evidence from supermarket data we assess the extent of inertia in grocery retail prices using data on prices and costs from a large supermarket chain in colombia relative to previous work our analysis benefits from encompassing a wide variety of products availability of reliable replacement cost data and the daily frequency of the data we confirm the existence of significant nominal rigidities in reference prices three months and even more so in reference costs about six months but differing depending on the type of product being on average smaller in the case of perishable goods using a non linear autoregressive distributed lag nardl approach to cointegration we examine the path of prices relative to costs and determine the speed of adjustment of prices to shocks we find significant mean reversion but also uncover asymmetries in response to positive and negative changes in costs as a novel finding we uncover evidence of the effect of market concentration input price volatility along with own labels and the perishable nature of products on the likelihood of price asymmetry in response to costs changes

social security and elderly homeownership abstract over the last twenty five years the homeownership rate of households 65 years and older has risen steadily while the homeownership rate for 35 64 year old households has remained relatively unchanged at the same time the real value of social security benefits has risen substantially using data from the march 1978 to 2001 current population surveys this paper documents the evolution and assesses the causal role of the social security program in increasing elderly homeownership to isolate the causal effect the analysis develops an instrumental variable approach that relies on the large variation in benefits for birth cohorts from 1900 to 1930 due to double indexation of the system and the so called social security notch for all elderly the estimated elasticity of homeownership to social security benefits ranges from 0 26 to 0 49 across marital groups the widowed have the greatest responsiveness to benefits increases in benefits also increase household formation among the elderly overall the estimates indicate that between half and as much as all of the time series rise in elderly homeownership over the last twenty five years can be attributable to the rise in social security benefits and suggest that reductions in benefits would alter homeownership among the elderly significantly

inflation debt and indexation these twelve essays cover topics on the frontier of indexation and practice an often proposed and debated tool of economic policy they range from highly theoretical discussions to practical experiences in brazil and europe rudiger dombush is ford international professor of economics at mit mario henrique simonsen is director of the postgraduate school of economics getulio vargas foundation rio de janeiro and former minister of finance and planning brazil

the opportunity costs of informal care does gender matter in this paper we investigate the costs borne by both male and female carers in terms of their forgone formal employment opportunities traditionally informal care was supplied by women but nowadays women are not only more likely to work but also likely to be significant contributors to family finances for women this implies that the size of any forgone earnings cost of informal care is increasing at the same time population ageing is making for increasing numbers requiring care from a policy perspective it is therefore helpful to consider a less traditional but nevertheless important source of informal care men we find that both male and female carers bear indirect costs in that they are less likely to be in paid work than otherwise similar non carers and when they are in paid work they earn significantly less however we find that the motivation for lower employment participation is not the same for men as it is for women

addressing global environmental externalities transaction costs considerations is there a way to understand why some global environmental externalities are addressed effectively whereas others are not the transaction costs of defining the property rights to mitigation benefits and costs is a useful framework for such analysis this approach views international cooperation as a contractual process among country leaders to assign those property rights leaders cooperate when it serves domestic interests to do so the demand for property rights comes from those who value and stand to gain from multilateral action property rights are supplied by international agreements that specify resource access and use assign costs and benefits including outlining the size and duration of compensating transfer payments and determining who will pay and who will receive them four factors raise the transaction costs of assigning property rights i scientific uncertainty regarding mitigation benefits and costs ii varying preferences and perceptions across heterogeneous populations iii asymmetric information and iv the extent of compliance and new entry these factors are used to examine the role of transaction costs in the establishment and allocation of property rights to provide globally valued national parks implement the convention on the international trade in endangered species of wild fauna and flora execute the montreal protocol to manage emissions that damage the stratospheric ozone layer set limits on harvest of highly migratory ocean fish stocks and control greenhouse gas emissions jel d23 p14 q22 q51 q54 q58

sticky prices new evidence from retail catalogs this paper presents new results on the size frequency and synchronization of price changes for twelve selected retail goods over the past 35 years three basic facts about the data are uncovered first nominal prices are typically fixed for more than one year although the time between changes is very irregular second prices change more often during periods of high overall inflation third when prices do change the sizes of the changes are widely dispersed both large and small changes occur for the same item and the sizes of these changes do not closely depend on overall inflation

when little things mean a lot on the inefficiency of item pricing laws abstract item pricing laws ipls require a price tag on every item sold by a retailer we study ipls and assess their efficiency by quantifying their costs and comparing them to previously documented benefits on the cost side we posit that ipls should lead to higher prices because they increase the costs of pricing and price adjustment we test this prediction using data collected from large supermarket chains in the tri state area of new york new jersey and connecticut we find that ipl store prices are higher by about 20 25 per item on average as a control we use data from stores that use electronic shelf labels and find that their prices fall between ipl and no ipl store prices we compare the costs of ipls to existing measures of the benefits and find that the costs are an order of magnitude higher than the upper bound of the estimated benefits

on the economic success of gatt wto dispute settlement what features of the dispute settlement process help governments live up to their trade liberalization commitments exploiting data on gatt wto trade disputes initiated and completed between 1973 and 1998 this paper identifies economic and institutional determinants that help defendant governments commit to liberalizing trade we find substantial evidence consistent with the theory that power measures including threat of retaliation by the plaintiff yield credibility to allow defendant governments to live up to their commitments we find only limited evidence however that particular procedural or institutional features beyond the basic gatt wto dispute settlement forum itself contributed to the successful economic resolution of trade disputes

what makes countries initiate wto disputes on food related issues abstract this paper analyses relevant determinants for the probability to initiate a dispute on policy measures under the world trade organization wto dispute settlement system the empirical analysis differs from existing assessments by focusing on agro food related disputes and provides a more in depth analysis of specific country and sectoral characteristics not considered in previous studies contrary to recent analyses of overall trade disputes the results show that some determinants such as legal capacity and monetary means are not statistically significant own protectionist behaviour endured protectionism and the duration of wto membership however could be identified as relevant determinants with the expected direction of impact

the rigidity of prices this paper uses evidence on individual transaction prices to analyze price behavior the evidence shows that for many transactions pricesremain rigid for periods exceeding one year the rigidity of price ispositively correlated with industry concentration for several productsthe correlation of price changes across buyers is low the paper alsoinvestigates the relationship between price rigidity price change andthe length of time a buyer and seller have been doing business together the author interprets the evidence as emphasizing the importance of nonprice rationing and the inadequacy of models in whichprice movements alone clear markets copyright 1986 by american economic association

microfoundations of macroeconomic price adjustment survey evidence from swedish firms this paper presents the results of a survey on price setting behavior conducted on a large random sample of swedish firms the median firm adjusts the price once a year state and time dependent price setting are about equally important the four highest ranked explanations for price rigidity in this study implicit contracts sluggish costs explicit contracts and the kinked demand curve have close correspondents among the top five places in two similar large scale surveys carried out in the uk and the u s the results point to the importance of the long term relations with customers for the rigidity of prices the estimated share of sales that go to regular customers is more than 80

what is new keynesian economics this research was supported by the national science foundation i am grateful to george williams for help with the data and to steven allen laurence ball olivier j blanchard timothy bresnahan charles calomiris dennis carlton robert chirinko russell cooper stanley fischer herschel grossman r glenn hubbard david laidler john leahy assar lindbeck n gregory mankiw david romer julio rotemberg dennis snower john taylor andrew weiss and two anonymous referees for comments on one or more earlier drafts i am also indebted to michael parkin and edmund s phelps for helping to establish the etymology of the phrase new keynesian

holiday price rigidity and cost of price adjustment the thanksgiving christmas holiday period is a major sales period for us retailers due to higher store traffic tasks such as restocking shelves handling customers questions and inquiries running cash registers cleaning and bagging become more urgent during holidays as a result the holiday period opportunity cost of price adjustment may increase dramatically for retail stores which should lead to greater price rigidity during holidays we test this prediction using weekly retail scanner price data from a major midwestern supermarket chain we find that indeed prices are more rigid during holiday periods than non holiday periods for example the econometric model we estimate suggests that the probability of a price change is lower during holiday periods even after accounting for cost changes moreover we find that the probability of a price change increases with the size of the cost change during both the holiday as well as non holiday periods we argue that these findings are best explained by higher price adjustment costs menu cost the retailers face during the holiday periods our data provides a natural experiment for studying variation in price rigidity because most aspects of market environment such as market structure industry concentration the nature of long term relationships contractual arrangements etc do not vary between holiday and nonholiday periods we therefore are able to rule out these commonly used alternative explanations for the price rigidity and conclude that the menu cost theory offers the best explanation for the holiday period price rigidity