radicalism versus gradualism an analytical survey of the transition strategy debate academic debate on a transition strategy for former socialist economies continues even a quarter century after the collapse of the communism in central and eastern europe and the former soviet union in this paper through an analytical survey of 137 preceding studies we present an overall picture of the debate and examine the relationship between the debate attitudes and the literature attributes in related studies we found that the radicalists maintain a consistent debate attitude from the viewpoints of time speed and policy sequence of economic transition while the debate attitude of the gradualists is more diversified we also found that there is another group of researchers that stays within the framework of the radicalism versus gradualism debate while at the same time keeping at arm s length from both the radicalists and the gradualists in addition our regression estimation of qualitative selection models provides interesting findings on the relationship between the debate attitudes and the literature attributes

the interaction of taxes and inflation in a macroeconomic model this paper presents a closed economy macroeconomic model in which the nominal income of some assets is taxed whereas that of others is not the short run and long run implications of a change in expected inflation are examined an increase in the expected rate of inflation shifts the composition of aggregate demand since asset holders shift their portfolios from the taxed asset corporate capital to the untaxed asset consumer durables in the long run this shift implies a stock adjustment decline in capital with a consequent decrease in the rate of growth of productivity over the transition period

price decontrol the microeconomic case for the big bang approach the paper presents the microeconomic case for rapid and comprehensive price decontrol as the appropriate first step in the transition to the market to make our point we consider the likely impact of the big bang price decontrol on a former socialist economy with particular attention to the welfare consequences for the consumer of eliminating shortages and queues the costs of monopoly power of state enterprises the possibility of major disruptions in the intermediate goods markets and the politico economic issues involved copyright 1991 by oxford university press

perceptions of inevitability and demand for redistribution evidence from a survey experiment abstract believing that inequality is inevitable may limit demand for redistribution we explore this idea with a survey experiment in south africa one of the most unequal countries in the world inevitability beliefs can be influenced by learning about lower inequality elsewhere we find that the demand for redistributive policies reacts to this information while it is insensitive to other types of information messages our analysis suggests a promising and heretofore unexplored avenue of research for refining our understanding of the determinants of demand for redistribution

inflation taxes and asset prices a note on wealth effects and asset complementarity abstract in popular debate as well as academic discussion it is frequently argued that the interaction of nominal income taxation and inflation has systematically favored investments in consumer durables and housing at the expense of investments in corporate shares and productive enterprises in this note it is shown that the above claim is far from universally true owing to the existence of wealth effects across markets and complementarity relationships among assets two factors ignored in earlier literature the possibility that the inflation induced distortions of the tax system have a generally stimulating effect on diverse assets such as corporate shares and housing cannot be ruled out

estimating the impact of the hajj religion and tolerance in islam s global gathering we estimate the impact on pilgrims of performing the hajj pilgrimage to mecca our method compares successful and unsuccessful applicants in a lottery used by pakistan to allocate hajj visas pilgrim accounts stress that the hajj leads to a feeling of unity with fellow muslims but outsiders have sometimes feared that this could be accompanied by antipathy toward non muslims we find that participation in the hajj increases observance of global islamic practices such as prayer and fasting while decreasing participation in localized practices and beliefs such as the use of amulets and dowry it increases belief in equality and harmony among ethnic groups and islamic sects and leads to more favorable attitudes toward women including greater acceptance of female education and employment increased unity within the islamic world is not accompanied by antipathy toward non muslims instead hajjis show increased belief in peace and in equality and harmony among adherents of different religions the evidence suggests that these changes are likely due to exposure to and interaction with hajjis from around the world rather than to a changed social role of pilgrims upon return

fiscal redistribution and income inequality in latin america income inequality in latin america ranks among the highest in the world it can be traced back to the unequal distribution of assets especially land and education in the region but the extent to which asset inequality translates into income inequality depends on the redistributive capacity of the state this paper documents the performance of latin american fiscal systems from the perspective of income redistribution using newly available information on the incidence of taxes and transfers across the region the findings indicate that i the differences in income inequality before taxes and transfers between latin america and western europe are much more modest than those after taxes and transfers ii the key reason is that in contrast with industrial countries in most latin american countries the fiscal system is of little help in reducing income inequality and iii in countries where fiscal redistribution is significant it is achieved mostly through transfers rather than taxes these facts stress the need for fiscal reforms across the region to further the goal of social equity however different countries need to place different relative emphasis on raising tax collection restructuring the tax system and improving the targeting of expenditures

reform in eastern europe a general equilibrium model with distortions in relative prices and factor markets this paper presents an analysis of reforms using a simple general equilibrium model with production the model illustrates some of the distortions remaining in the eastern european countries as they adopt market oriented policies and it shows that price reforms should take priority if simultaneous reform is not possible specifically the authors examine reforms of relative prices of output goods and liberalization of the capital market the model is solved numerically showing that restrictions on capital mobility should be retained until after price distortions have been removed

threats and opportunities faced by private businesses in china abstract this article presents a comprehensive analysis of the environment experienced by private businesses in china through examining their relationships with the major stakeholders namely government supplier employee customer and competitor since the announcement of the economic reform in 1978 substantial political and economic power has been delegated from the central government to the regions endowed with this power local governments have crucial influence on the size of the private sector within their jurisdiction being outside the state allocation plan private firms have less access to raw materials and credit in the volatile political climate of china they are vulnerable to attack during political campaigns maintaining a cordial relationship with local cadres through paying bribes and various charges is thus a prerequisite for survival having solicited political backing a private entrepreneur can not only run his business more smoothly but also may be more tolerated in his illegal activities such as tax evasion profiteering and selling banned products in short the whole situation can be described as a collusion of local governments and private businesses at the expense of the central government s interest under the economic reform the distribution system has become less rigid than before it is easier for private firms to secure supplies whether raw materials or manufactured goods labor input is also not a problem for most private firms which are small in size and employ mainly unskilled workers however large private enterprises have to compete with state collective and foreign enterprises for managerial staff who are in short supply there have been marked changes in the consumption pattern since the early 1980s people spend less on staple foods and more on non staple foods consumer goods and services moreover china is experiencing a consumption boom altogether this offers great opportunities to the private sector which has been expanding its share of industrial output and retail sales very fast on the other hand competition is becoming much keener state enterprises are improving their efficiency and giant multinational corporations are rushing in as there are few entry barriers private entrepreneurs are also competing fiercely among themselves the ideological contradiction of having labor exploitation by private entrepreneurs in a socialist country has prevented the chinese government from actively encouraging private business the private sector has been assigned a supplementary role in the dominant public economy this status has led to discrimination against private firms in obtaining factor inputs accounting partly for their vulnerability to bureaucratic harassment by local cadres this will continue to hamper private business development it is concluded that ideological and political reforms in addition to the economic reform are required for providing a more conducive environment for private businesses the chinese experience of liberalizing the private sector offers useful insights to governments of other developing countries

the political economy of policy credibility the new classical macroeconomics and the remaking of emerging economies the criterion of policy credibility is invoked with increasing frequency today by new classical development economists in debates over economic and institutional reform in developing and transitional countries the paper argues that the credibility criterion is used to privilege neoliberal economic policies and associated institutions the paper demonstrates that the credibility criterion is theoretically anti pluralist and politically anti democratic in this connection the paper argues that a policy s credibility is always secured endogenously through political and economic power rather than exogenously by virtue of the epistemiological status of the theory that promotes it the paper concludes by suggesting two alternative criteria by which policy regimes and the governance structure of monetary institutions could be adjudicated these alternative criteria are termed the principle of democratic credibility and the principle of fallibility copyright 2000 by oxford university press

biased perceptions of income distribution and preferences for redistribution evidence from a survey experiment abstract individual perceptions of income distribution play a vital role in political economy and public finance models yet there is little evidence regarding their origins or accuracy this study examines how individuals form these perceptions and explores their potential impact on preferences for redistribution a tailored household survey provides original evidence on systematic biases in individuals evaluations of their own relative position in the income distribution the study discusses one of the mechanisms that may generate such biases based on the extrapolation of information from endogenous reference groups and presents some suggestive evidence that this mechanism has significant explanatory power the impact of these biased perceptions on attitudes toward redistributive policies is studied by means of an experimental design that was incorporated into the survey which provided consistent information on the own ranking within the income distribution to a randomly selected group of respondents the evidence suggests that those who had overestimated their relative position and thought that they were relatively richer than they were tend to demand higher levels of redistribution when informed of their true ranking

circumstance and choice the role of initial conditions and policies in transition economies the experience of countries in transition from a planned to a market oriented economy has varied greatly the clearest differences are between the east asian countries china and vietnam and the countries of central and eastern europe cee and the former soviet union fsu china and vietnam have contained inflation and benefited from continued high growth in gdp since the beginning of their reforms while all cee and fsu countries have experienced large declines in output and most have experienced hyperinflation but even in cee and the fsu differences are marked some countries have lost over half of their gdp and growth performance in a number of countries is still poor while others are growing strongly some are still suffering from high inflation while others have successfully reduced annual inflation what determines this divergence of outcomes across transition countries no study so far has analyzed the interaction of all factors including initial conditions political change and reforms in a unified framework including cee the fsu china and vietnam the authors examine these broader interactions but focus first on the role of initial conditions such as initial macroeconomic distortions and differences in economic structure and institutions which have been emphasized less in the literature they find that initial conditions and economic policy jointly determine the large differences in economic performance among the 28 transition economies in the sample initial conditions dominate in explaining inflation but economic liberalization is the most important factor determining differences in growth but reform policy choices are not exogenous they depend in turn on both initial conditions and political reform with political reform the most important determinant of the speed and comprehensiveness of economic liberalization other findings provide additional insight into these relationships results show that liberalization has a negative contemporaneous impact but a stronger positive effect on performance over time the results also show that macroeconomic and structural distortions are negatively related to both policy and performance regarding the former unfavorable initial conditions discourage policy reforms but do not diminish their effectiveness once they are implemented the authors find some evidence that the influence of initial conditions diminishes over time this is in part because many of the initial conditions are themselves modified in the course of transition monetary overhangs are dissipated through inflation industrial overhang is eroded as plants shut down and market memory returns through experience

the chinese box the opaque economic borders of the chinese state although the state in china is no longer all encompassing as it had been during the pre 1979 centrally planned period it still reaches into numerous areas of the economy notably through its continuing ownership of state owned enterprises as a result china poses a paradox in that it has incomplete property rights and rule of law which are thought to be essential for growth there are though numerous inefficiencies associated with such a gradual transition which may have maintained a stable growth rate in the past but could hamper future economic development as a key example state owned firms continue to benefit from financial repression in which they received preferable allocations of credit thus china s high savings rate fuels investment which has driven growth but is increasingly inefficient as credit is funnelled to the less productive soes this inefficiency points to the need for legal and institutional reforms which may conflict with the still broad but opaque borders of the chinese state copyright 2011 oxford university press

after state socialism the political origins of transitional recessions transitions from state socialism created a startling range of initial economic outcomes from renewed growth to deep economic crises debates about the causes have largely ignored the political dis

the transition to a market economy pitfalls of partial reform we present a theory of a partial economic reform of a planned economy similar to the one that took place in russia since 1988 and in china earlier in such a reform some markets are liberalized in the sense that producers can sell output to whomever they want including private firms at free prices but at the same time must sell to state firms at state prices we show that such a reform can result in a substantial diversion of subsidized inputs away from state firms and toward private firms even when state firms value these inputs more the result may be a reduction of total output the simple analysis sheds light on many consequences of the soviet reform such as breakdown of coordination of production increased state policing of delivery quotas prohibitions of trading cooperatives and opposition to privatization the model also explains why partial reform failed in russia but worked in china

reform without losers an interpretation of china s dual track approach to transition this paper develops a simple model to analyze the dual track approach to market liberalization as a mechanism for implementing efficient pareto improving economic reform that is reform achieving efficiency without creating losers the approach based on the continued enforcement of the existing plan while simultaneously liberalizing the market can be understood as a method for making implicit lump sum transfers to compensate potential losers of the reform the model highlights the critical roles of enforcement of the plan for achieving pareto improvement and full liberalization of the market track for achieving efficiency we examine how the dual track approach has worked in product and labor market liberalization in china

how elastic are preferences for redistribution evidence from randomized survey experiments we analyze randomized online survey experiments providing interactive customized information on us income inequality the link between top income tax rates and economic growth and the estate tax the treatment has large effects on views about inequality but only slightly moves tax and transfer policy preferences an exception is the estate tax informing respondents of the small share of decedents who pay it doubles support for it the small effects for all other policies can be partially explained by respondents low trust in government and a disconnect between concerns about social issues and the public policies meant to address them jel d31 d72 h23 h24

pervasive shortages under socialism we present a new theory of pervasive shortages under socialism based on the assumption that the planners are self interested because the planners meaning bureaucrats in the ministries and managers offirms cannot keep the official profits that firms earn it is in their interest to create shortages of output and to collect bribes from consumers the theory implies that 1 an increase in the official price of a good might reduce output 2 market socialism is bound to fail even without computational complexities facing the planners and 3 price liberalization will succeed only iffirms get to keep their profits

privatization market liberalization and learning in transition economies privatization and market liberalization are widely considered to be complementary reforms in transition economies this article challenges this view and the closely related big bang approach when pursued too vigorously privatization may impede the transition process following liberalization our result is based on an explicit model of market learning compared to a mature market a market in transition is characterized by greater uncertainty regarding market conditions including equilibrium prices and quanti ties economic actors must learn about these conditions through their participation in the market process less than full privatization is optimal if the costs of learning are sufficiently important

networking and growth of young technology intensive ventures in china abstract more often than not new ventures lack established products known technologies longstanding customer relations experienced managerial teams sufficient capital and strong reputations almost by definition small new firms lack the resources of many larger established firms the task of an infant firm and a measure of its success is to make a transition from being resource weak to being resource strong how can resources that are critical for profitable growth be acquired for the resource weak new venture researchers have found that entrepreneurs can gain access to valuable resources and they can seek to achieve competitive advantage through networking activities forming and utilizing available relationships with external organizations can allow entrepreneurs to build credibility gain advice financing and customer access build a positive image and obtain resources at below market prices and obtain channel access information and innovations business relationships with other organizations allow an entrepreneur to achieve desired business results through asset parsimony a favorable view toward networking for new ventures leaves a number of unanswered questions however relevant research questions might include who should the entrepreneur seek as a business partner are all inter organizational relationships equal or are some types more valuable to new ventures than other relationships do firms relying on high levels of networking activities actually outperform firms that less actively seek resources through external organizational relationships the present study provides a specific understanding of the concept of networking for entrepreneurs we propose that networking can be understood in terms of range the number of external relationships to obtain resources and of intensity the frequency of contact of and amount of resource obtained from these relationships this research project evaluates the range and intensity of networking among high growth and low growth entrepreneurial ventures extensive interviewing with managers of six young technology oriented firms in the people s republic of china prc affirmed the importance of entrepreneurial networking managers in the three high growth firms reported greater range and intensity of business networking than did managers of three low growth firms matched by industry and age moreover the relationship between networking activities and growth transcended the stage of firm development where networking range and intensity are deemed important in the growth process new venture success may call for entrepreneurs to reach out deliberately to external organizations to capture needed resources to a certain extent such networking activities run counter to important entrepreneurial motivations of independence and autonomy the concept of networking and the results of this study imply that entrepreneurs need to combine the spirit of independence with the reality of resource dependence and they need to balance personal autonomy with strategic business relationships this study also contributes to the understanding of entrepreneurship in our increasingly global economy particularly in the prc business relationships between the united states and the prc have been expanding rapidly in the last decade many foreign businesses seek license agreements joint venture partners equity participation or channel relationships with young ventures in that country do the same rules of networking apply in the prc as the literature suggests apply in the united states new ventures in this study were found to engage in processes of networking activities consistent with those in the west although networking activities may have different cultural roots firm success appeared influenced by the same principles of networking

three years after apartheid growth employment and redistribution in 1994 south africa s first ever democratic elections gave the anc an overwhelming majority with nelson mandela as president this article reviews developments since then it describes the economy at the beginning of the transition from apartheid the policy initiatives of the new government and the development of the economy over the three years following the 1994 elections it analyses critically the government s 1996 growth employment and redistribution policy it also discusses the shifts which have occurred in anc economic thinking since 1990

dynamics of pro market institutions and firm performance we analyze how pro market institutions affect firm performance in emerging markets integrating transaction costs and signaling theory we advance three arguments first we separate four dynamic components of pro market institutions intensifying and fading pro market reforms and intensifying and fading pro market reversals second we propose an asymmetric dynamic view whereby not only intensifying reforms but also fading reversals improve firm performance while not only fading reforms but also intensifying reversals reduce performance finally we argue that more efficient firms perform better under each of the dynamics we test these arguments on a sample of 1092 firms from 34 emerging markets during 1998 2011

impacts of economic reform in poland incidence and welfare changes within a consistent framework the costs of shortages and rationing are not captured by standard consumer price indices thus the change in real gdp per capita is an overestimate of welfare losses in transition economics in this study virtual prices are used to calculate new cost of living indices clis the results for polant show that from 1987 to 1992 the cli ignoring the rationing effects is biased upward from 1 53 to 3 71 percentage points per year compared to the estimates of welfare loss that neglect the rationing effects during the prereform period the estimated welfare losses that reflect the rationing are reduced by 50 using hausman virtual prices and by 75 using external proxy virtual prices

democratization and economic liberalization in the postcommunist world how does economic liberalization affect political regime economic liberalization is widely regarded as inimical to democratization the washington consensus which generally endorses shock therapy and envisions a basic compatibility between economic liberalization and democratization is widely disdained in social science many scholars hold that neoliberal economics depresses popular living standards and exacerbates socioeconomic inequalities thereby compromising democratization focusing on the postcommunist region this article tests this hypothesis it examines the data that have been used to assess the relationship between economic liberalization and political democratization and presents analyses using more appropriate and differentiated techniques the authors find that economic liberalization advances rather than undermines democratization using engle granger analysis they find that although economic liberalization has no discernible impact on democratization in the short term democratiza

policy reform and growth in post soviet russia in pursuit of its transition from a command to a market economy russia has witnessed enormous regional differences in economic growth rates moreover the implementation of economic reforms has also differed markedly across regions we analyze whether regional differences in reform policies can account for regional differences in growth rates and conclude that to a considerable degree they can most notably we find that regional differences in price liberalization policies exhibit a positive direct correspondence with growth we also find that regional differences in large scale privatization exhibit a positive correspondence with the regional formation of new legal enterprises which in turn exhibits a strong positive correspondence with growth

structural uncertainty and subsidy removal for economies in transition abstract economies in transition are faced with a high degree of structural uncertainty i e uncertainty about which it is possible to learn through experience we study structural uncertainty s effects on a subsidy removal program subsidy removal causes unemployment but yields fiscal benefits and facilitates private sector growth when the policymaker does not know the speed with which the private sector absorbs the unemployed he will be driven toward a more decisive and therefore more informative policy the model also rationalizes policy reversals and implies that irreversibility constraints and political instability dampen the learning effect making policy more gradualist

belief in a just world and redistributive politics international surveys reveal wide differences between the views held in different countries concerning the causes of wealth or poverty and the extent to which people are responsible for their own fate at the same time social ethnographies and experiments by psychologists demonstrate individuals recurrent struggle with cognitive dissonance as they seek to maintain and pass on to their children a view of the world where effort ultimately pays off and everyone gets their just deserts this paper offers a model that helps explain i why most people feel such a need to believe in a just world ii why this need and therefore the prevalence of the belief varies considerably across countries iii the implications of this phenomenon for international differences in political ideology levels of redistribution labor supply aggregate income and popular perceptions of the poor the model shows in particular how complementarities arise endogenously between individuals desired beliefs or ideological choices resulting in two equilibria a first american equilibrium is characterized by a high prevalence of just world beliefs among the population and relatively laissez faire policies the other european equilibrium is characterized by more pessimism about the role of effort in economic outcomes and a more extensive welfare state more generally the paper develops a theory of collective beliefs and motivated cognitions including those concerning money consumption and happiness as well as religion

strong legacies and weak markets bulgarian state owned enterprises during early transition the authors examine the factors affecting the performance of state owned enterprises soes during early transition to a market economy data come from a longitudinal study of a representative sample of bulgarian soes for the period from 1989 the last year under communism to 1993 three years after major macroeconomic shifts they investigate how changes in authority structure work organization technology marketing strategy and organizational boundaries during these years affected organizational performance in 1993 they also assess the degree of path dependence in performance and the role of competitive industry conditions numerous organizational changes made by soes during early transition had little effect on performance yet organizational performance from 1989 to 1993 was highly path dependent although this dependence was mediated by the competitive conditions stronger markets displayed less path dependence overall the results favor the interpretations derived from selected neo institutional and ecological perspectives of organizational sociology over neoclassical economic interpretations

inflation and the stock market reply the very poor performance of the stock market has been one of the major economic puzzles of the 1970 s the value of common stock has fallen significantly in relation to the price of final goods the replacement value of the capital stock and the value of pretax equity earnings this fall in real share prices has raised the cost of capital to firms and has thereby reduced the incentive to invest in plant and equipment although no single factor is likely to have been responsible for this unusual performance of share prices i believe that the sharp rise in inflation during the past fifteen years has been one of the significant causes of course inflation should have no effect on real share values in an economy in which there are no taxes or other imperfections and in which portfolio investors correctly distinguish real and nominal magnitudes but the u s economy does have substantial taxes that are assessed on the basis of nominal rather than real capital income 2 an increase in the rate of inflation raises the effective tax rate on equity earnings relative to the tax rate on other types of investment income individuals and financial institutions will therefore hold the existing stock of equity capital only at a lower real price in inflation and the stock market i presented a very simple model designed to capture the essential feature of this tax nonneutrality and its impact on share prices the primary purpose of the analysis was to show how the overstatement of taxable profits caused by inflation because of historic cost depreciation and inventory accounting rules could lead to lower real share prices even though inflation reduced the real net of tax return on debt this explanation stands in sharp contrast to the conventional view that inflation lowers share prices because the nominal yield on debt rises a second purpose of the analysis was to show how corporate stock could be a good hedge against inflation as long as the inflation rate remained constant while being adversely affected by increases in the expected rate of inflation and finally i wanted to indicate the importance of recognizing separately the roles of tax exempt institutional investors and taxable individual investors the analysis was definitely not intended to prove that inflation must cause share prices to decline with existing u s tax rules the model that i used is clearly far too simple in several ways to do more than illustrate a possible line of influence the model assumes among other things that there are no retained earnings no corporate debt finance and no individual investment opportunities other than corporate stocks and government bonds 3 but the simplified model has the virtue of tractability and clarity that would be lost by adopting a more complex specification in their comment irwin friend and joel hasbrouck have presented a slightly different model of asset demand in an economy with taxes and inflation i think that this alternative model is a useful complement to my own analysis moreover as i shall explain in this reply their model has the same implications as mine about the effect of inflation on share prices president national bureau of economic research and professor of economics harvard university the study discussed in this note is part of the nber study of capital formation the views expressed here are my own and not those of the nber franco modigliani and richard cohn have argued that many investors do not correctly evaluate either real profits or the relevant discount rate because they do not distinguish between real and nominal interest rates 2this includes the use of historic cost depreciation artificial inventory profits based on fifo accounting nominal interest income and expenses and nominal capital gains 3these features are included in a later model see my 1980b article designed to explain more of the complexities of the tax inflation interaction

repeated shocks and preferences for redistribution abstract a society that believes wealth to be determined by random luck rather than by merit demands more redistribution we present evidence of this behavior by exploiting a natural experiment provided by the l aquila earthquake in 2009 which hit a large area of central italy through a series of destructive shakes over eight days matching detailed information on the ground acceleration registered during each shock with survey data about individual opinions on redistribution we show that the average intensity of the shakes is associated with subsequent stronger beliefs that for a society to be fair income inequalities should be leveled by redistribution the shocks however are not all alike we find that only the last three shakes occurred on the fourth and the eighth day of the earthquake have a statistically significant impact overall we find that the timing and repetition of the shocks play a role in informing redistributive preferences

social mobility and the demand for redistribution the poum hypothesis this paper examines the often stated idea that the poor do not support high levels of redistribution because of the hope that they or their offspring may make it up the income ladder this prospect of upward mobility poum hypothesis is shown to be fully compatible with rational expectations and fundamentally linked to concavity in the mobility process a steady state majority could even be simultaneously poorer than average in terms of current income and richer than average in terms of expected future incomes a e rst empirical assessment suggests on the other hand that in recent u s data the poum effect is probably dominated by the demand for social insurance in the future everyone will be world famous for e fteen minutes andy warhol 1968

discretionary policy implementation and reform abstract regulatory agencies treaty negotiators and other delegates often possess considerable authority over the details of policy change i examine how such discretion can block a pareto improving reform when policy change requires the support of both the liberal and conservative factions gridlock reform and reform paradoxes all emerge as cases in a general model with perfect information a reformer with unknown policy preferences can facilitate escape from a gridlock equilibrium

how does your kindergarten classroom affect your earnings evidence from project star in project star 11 571 students in tennessee and their teachers were randomly assigned to classrooms within their schools from kindergarten to third grade this article evaluates the long term impacts of star by linking the experimental data to administrative records we first demonstrate that kindergarten test scores are highly correlated with outcomes such as earnings at age 27 college attendance home ownership and retirement savings we then document four sets of experimental impacts first students in small classes are significantly more likely to attend college and exhibit improvements on other outcomes class size does not have a significant effect on earnings at age 27 but this effect is imprecisely estimated second students who had a more experienced teacher in kindergarten have higher earnings third an analysis of variance reveals significant classroom effects on earnings students who were randomly assigned to higher quality classrooms in grades k 3 as measured by classmates end of class test scores have higher earnings college attendance rates and other outcomes finally the effects of class quality fade out on test scores in later grades but gains in noncognitive measures persist

tax reform and the political economy of the tax base abstract this paper studies the political prospects for reform in a model where the tax base and statutory rate are separate instruments of tax policy the model suggests that large changes in the tax code may be easier to enact than marginal reforms the tax base faces a tipping point where even the beneficiaries from tax exemptions support reform at this tipping point tax reform is pareto improving politically feasible tax reform occurs when fiscal needs are large but may nonetheless involve reductions in marginal tax rates there is strategic complementarity in lobbying for tax exemptions resulting in multiple equilibria the model s main predictions are consistent with recent tax reforms in oecd countries

the optimal choice of privatizing state owned enterprises a political economic model we study the choices of two types of maximizing public servants over how far to carry privatization of industries and in what order to privatize two stylizations of the public servant s objectives are considered a niskanen style bureaucrat who maximizes a surplus budget subject to the constraint of staying in office and a populist who maximizes popularity consumer welfare subject to the constraint of a balanced budget other things being equal the bureaucrat will privatize the sector firms with the least market power and the largest subsidy first the populist will adopt the same policy if the marginal costs of products in the private sectors are not too high with respect to the marginal utilities if the marginal costs are too high however the populist will privatize the sector with the largest market power first we also show that privatization is easier and faster in less democratic societies

risk inflation and the stock market most explanations for the decline in share values over the past two decades have focused on the concurrent increase in inflation this paper considers an alternative explanation a substantial increase in the riskiness of capital investments we show that the variance of firms real gross marginal return on capital has increased significantly increasing the relative riskiness of investors returns on equity and that this can explain a large part of the market decline we also assess the effects of increase in the mean and variance of the inflation rate and a decline in firms expected return on capital this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

the political economy of restructuring and privatization in eastern europe this paper reports some of the recent research in the political economy of transition in central and eastern europe with special emphasis on restructuring and privatization this line of research is concerned with the political feasibility of reform packages and the effect of political constraints on the design of reforms political constraints appear to play a major role in economic transition 2 in poland transition started with a homogeneous solidarity led government enjoying great legitimacy l balcerowicz the finance minister who had launched reform in january 1990 had however to leave office and part of his policies are now being reversed parliament is fragmented government duration is becoming increasingly short workers are striking against privatization plans czechoslovakia is breaking up partly because the slovak population is not ready to follow the rhythm of reforms initiated by v klaus in prague the support for e gai dar s transition program in russia has dwindled among the population conservative forces are gathering momentum alarming neonazi manifestations in east germany are an indicator of the low tolerance of the population for the changes imposed on them some countries are doing better hungary is doing comparatively well with a more stable political situation and relative successes in reforms allowing it to attract foreign direct investment china is experiencing a rapid expansion of the non state sector and smooth advances in the reform process in a context of sustained economic growth qian and xu 1992 these two countries

pareto improving economic reforms through dual track liberalization abstract pareto improving economic reforms that also simultaneously achieve efficiency can be implemented through a strategy of dual track liberalization its success requires the feasibility of the original plan and its continued enforcement by the state the chinese experience demonstrates that such a strategy works

success and failure of reform insights from the transition of agriculture this paper analyzes the linkages between the reform strategies in transition countries and economic performance the authors focus on agriculture because of the sharpness of the policy changes fundamental differences among countries and relative simplicity of agricultural relationships the authors document post reform performance in the transition countries of asia and europe the authors show how a pricing reform and subsidy reductions b land rights reform and policies that affect farm restructuring and c the presence institutions that facilitate exchange either markets or market substitutes affect output and productivity the paper ends with general lessons on reforms and transition

dual track reforms with and without losers the dual track approach to market liberalization has been widely recognized as the key to the success of the chinese economic reform in this paper we study the effectiveness of this strategy in economic environments where the status quo government control is incomplete we show that in a dynamic context contractual arbitrage will emerge potentially resulting in efficiency losses and or adverse distributional effects by establishing a necessary and sufficient condition for the dual track approach to retain its appeal in a dynamic context our analysis provides a clear guideline to the broader applicability of this reform mechanism

an examination of the relationship between australian industry equity returns and expected inflation this paper analyses the relationship between inflation and equity returns in australia over the period january 1974 to march 1996 analysis is based on monthly and quarterly data using value weighted equity indices at both the aggregate market and industry level three price indices the consumer price index cpi quarterly and the manufactured materials used index mmu and the manufacturing articles produced index map both monthly and quarterly are used to measure inflation results provide little evidence of the statistically significant negative relationship observed in the us for the full study period analysis is also conducted on three subperiods monetary targeting july 1976 january 1985 checklist approach february 1985 december 1989 and anti inflation january 1990 march 1996 at the market level the anti inflation subperiod does provide some evidence of a negative relationship between inflation and equity returns though statistical significance is not apparent with quarterly tim

the taxation of risky assets this paper reconsiders the effects of taxation on risky assets recognizing the importance of variations in asset prices we show that earlier analyses that assumed that depreciation rates are constant and that the future price of capital goods is known with certainty are very misleading as guides to the effects of corporate taxes we then examine the concept of economic depreciation in a risky environment and show that depreciation allowances if set ex ante should be adjusted to take account of future asset price risk some empirical calculations suggest that these adjustments are large and have important implications for the burdens of and nonneutralities in the corporation income tax

gradualism versus big bang speed and sustainability of reforms a beneficial reform may be blocked by a majority if it is implemented by a big bang but the same reform may succeed with an optimally designed gradualist approach a gradualist approach can sometimes split opposition force and is in this sense more politically sustainable on the other hand if both approaches are politically preferred to no reform a big bang is often preferred to gradualism in terms of both political support as well as economic efficiency

learning dynamics and support for economic reforms why good news can be bad support for economic reforms has often shown puzzling dynamics many reforms that began successfully lost public support this paper shows that learning dynamics can rationalize this paradox because the process of revealing reform outcomes is an example of sampling without replacement this concept challenges the conventional wisdom that one should begin by revealing reform winners it may also lead to situations in which reforms that enjoy both ex ante and ex post majority support will still not come to completion the framework can be used to explain why gradual reforms worked well in china where successes in special economic zones facilitated further reform whereas this was much less the case for latin american and central and eastern european countries

critical mass effect and restructuring in the transition towards a market economy abstract restructuring firms in a transition economy produces a sort of network externality in that the profitability of restructuring depends on the number of firms that already adopted this strategy we investigate under what conditions a critical mass exists i e a situation in which such externality is positive and restructuring spurs imitation possibly leading to the eventual transformation of the whole economy we find a critical mass effect when the main effect of restructuring is an increase in value added i e aggregate demand rather than an increase in the firm s ability to compete against rival home firms the critical mass case becomes the typical one when competition spurs firms efficiency

the relative efficiencies of market and planned economies are planned economies systematically more or less productive than market economies this question provoked heated intellectual debate since the time of hayek 11 keynes 16 lange 19 lange and taylor 20 and lerner 22 the collapse of the communist systems of east europe since 1989 closed the debate planned economies were without doubt less efficient in utilizing economic resources than market economies but how much less efficient this question is of obvious scientific interest but it has not been answered some work addressing the broad question of comparative efficiency has been done by bergson 4 5 6 marer 25 26 moroney 28 and others all indicate comparatively lower efficiency in planned economies but none addresses the question by how much our contribution here is to answer this question using a novel methodology we estimate aggregate frontier production functions for two groups of countries 7 centrally planned economies in east europe and 17 predominantly market economies in west europe estimating frontier production functions enables two types of comparisons that have not

disorganization and financial collapse since the fall of communism the former soviet union experienced a strong output decline and a dramatic increase in arrears and barter we develop a model which explains how these three phenomena are connected we introduce liquidity and credit constraints into a model of disorganization and show how these problems can alleviate the hold up problem we argue further that barter creates a hostage that allows to deal with disorganization when credit enforcement becomes prohibitively costly based on a firm survey in ukraine in 1997 we test how input shortages financial shortages and barter affect output growth of firms

government in transition abstract the speed of economic reforms is not the only important determinant of the success of the transition to a market economy the transition of government from a communist state to an institution supporting a market economy is as critical survey evidence shows that russia lags significantly behind poland in the transition of its government which may account for its inferior economic performance despite adopting similar economic reforms i argue that the lack of turnover of old communist politicians and the creation of inappropriate electoral and fiscal incentives for these politicians may account for the poor performance of the russian government and suggest some strategies for improving the situation

how to reform a planned economy lessons from china the countries of eastern europe and the former soviet union have been flooded with advice from the west on how to liberalize their planned econo mies this advice is unfortunately offered in an empirical vacuum no one knows how these econo mies will react to the proposed liberalization meas ures there exists however a neglected source of information china offers a long time series of data over a decade s worth on the effects of reforms on a planned economy china s reforms were gradual but their cumulative effect has been large and they have been remarkably successful china s experiments provide some practical les sons on what kinds of reforms can work elsewhere the dominant school of thought among economists favours the big bang policy of reforming quickly and according to a comprehensive plan partial reforms in this view are useless they will be negated by the remnants of the planning system the proponents of big bang reform have been influential with poland czechoslovakia and rus sia announcing plans for a rapid transition to capi talism

circumstance and choice this article takes an integrated approach to evaluating the interaction of initial conditions political change reforms and economic performance in a unified framework covering 28 transition economies in east asia central and eastern europe and the fsu initial conditions and economic policy jointly determine the large differences in economic performance among transition economies initial conditions dominate in explaining inflation but economic liberalization is the most important factor determining differences in growth political reform emerges as the most important determinant of the speed and comprehensiveness of economic liberalization raising the important question of what determines political liberalization results suggest the importance of the level of development in determining the decision to expand political freedoms

the law of one price evidence from the transitional economy of china abstract this paper applies the recently developed econometric methods of panel unit root tests and nonlinear mean reversion to investigate price convergence in china the largest transitional economy in the world we find that prices did converge to the law of one price in china for an overwhelming majority of goods and services based on a large panel data set the finding sheds light on the extent of the market economy in china and casts doubt on young s proposition that the economic reform has led to the fragmentation of chinese domestic markets