how does women s life satisfaction respond to retirement a two stage analysis we quantify the adjustment of women s life satisfaction to retirement as a two stage process the transition to retirement leads to an immediate increase in women s life satisfaction after becoming retired their life satisfaction declines with the duration of retirement

two stage residual inclusion estimation addressing endogeneity in health econometric modeling the paper focuses on two estimation methods that have been widely used to address endogeneity in empirical research in health economics and health services research two stage predictor substitution 2sps and two stage residual inclusion 2sri 2sps is the rote extension to nonlinear models of the popular linear two stage least squares estimator the 2sri estimator is similar except that in the second stage regression the endogenous variables are not replaced by first stage predictors instead first stage residuals are included as additional regressors in a generic parametric framework we show that 2sri is consistent and 2sps is not results from a simulation study and an illustrative example also recommend against 2sps and favor 2sri our findings are important given that there are many prominent examples of the application of inconsistent 2sps in the recent literature this study can be used as a guide by future researchers in health economics who are confronted with endogeneity in their empirical work

forming priors for dsge models and how it affects the assessment of nominal rigidities abstract we discuss prior elicitation for the parameters of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium dsge models and provide a method for constructing prior distributions for a subset of these parameters from beliefs about steady state relationships and second moments of the endogenous variables the empirical application documents how the specification of the prior distribution affects our assessment of the relative importance of price and wage rigidities in a new keynesian dsge model

portfolio choice of government incentives the case of commercialization of a new coal based technology economic and financial incentives have become accepted tools for the implementation of government policies such as encouraging the widespread use of new technologies that offer significant economic and political benefits at the macroeconomic level but are not well perceived by managers at the micro level due to significant retrofitting costs this study using portfolio and real investment theories develops a quantitative methodology for selecting the optimal mix of incentives based on financial and operating factor sensitivities of the targeted firms in an uncertain environment the proposed methodology overcomes several shortcomings of previous studies the study applies the suggested method to a recent dod doe 1995 g project data that estimates the net benefits of a new coal based technology the results show that government policies based on a combination of incentives are more effective than individual incentive based policies the empirical analysis of firms which account for the 163 boiler sites in the sample reveals that the optimal incentive package is weighted about 2 1 in favor of tax incentives versus research and development subsidies

testing for indeterminacy an application to u s monetary policy reply this paper considers a prototypical new keynesian model in which the equilibrium is undetermined if monetary policy is passive the likelihood based estimation of dynamic equilibrium models is extended to allow for indeterminacies and sunspot fluctuations we construct posterior weights for the determinacy and indeterminacy region of the parameter space and estimates for the propagation of fundamental and sunspot shocks according to the estimated model u s monetary policy post 1982 is consistent with determinacy whereas the pre volcker policy is not we find that before 1979 indeterminacy substantially altered the propagation of shocks

discretionary monetary policy and the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates abstract ignoring the existence of the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates one considerably understates the value of monetary commitment in new keynesian models a stochastic forward looking model with an occasionally binding lower bound calibrated to the u s economy suggests that low values for the natural rate of interest lead to sizeable output losses and deflation under discretionary monetary policy the fall in output and deflation are much larger than in the case with policy commitment and do not show up at all if the model abstracts from the existence of the lower bound the welfare losses of discretionary policy increase even further when inflation is partly determined by lagged inflation in the phillips curve these results emerge because private sector expectations and the discretionary policy response to these expectations reinforce each other and cause the lower bound to be reached much earlier than under commitment

the macroeconomic effects of large scale asset purchase programmes the effects of asset purchase programs on macroeconomic variables are likely to be moderate we reach this conclusion after simulating the impact of the federal reserve s second large scale asset purchase program lsap ii in a dsge model enriched with a preferred habitat framework and estimated on u s data our simulations suggest that such a program increases gdp growth by less than half a percentage point although the effect on the level of gdp is very persistent the program s marginal contribution to infl ation is very small one key reason for our fi ndings is that we estimate a small degree of fi nancial market segmentation if we enrich the set of observables with a measure of long term debt the semi elasticity of the risk premium to the amount of debt in privatesector hands is substantially smaller than that reported in the recent empirical literature in this case our baseline estimates of the effects of lsap ii on the macroeconomy decrease by at least a factor of two throughout the analysis a commitment to an extended period at the zero lower bound for nominal interest rates increases the effects of asset purchase programs on gdp growth and infl ation

occbin a toolkit for solving dynamic models with occasionally binding constraints easily abstract the toolkit adapts a first order perturbation approach and applies it in a piecewise fashion to solve dynamic models with occasionally binding constraints our examples include a real business cycle model with a constraint on the level of investment and a new keynesian model subject to the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates compared with a high quality numerical solution the piecewise linear perturbation method can adequately capture key properties of the models we consider a key advantage of the piecewise linear perturbation method is its applicability to models with a large number of state variables

what explains the difference in the effect of retirement on health evidence from global aging data this paper analyzes the reasons for differences in the effect of retirement on health estimated results in previous studies we investigate these differences by focusing on the analysis methods used by these studies using various health indexes numerous researchers have examined the effects of retirement on health however there are no unified views on the impact of retirement on various health indexes consequently we show that the choice of analysis method is one of the key factors in explaining why the estimated results of the effect of retirement on health differ moreover we re estimate the effect of retirement on health by using a fixed analysis method controlling for individual heterogeneity and endogeneity of the retirement behavior we analyze the effect of retirement on health parameters such as cognitive function self report of health activities of daily living adl depression and body mass index in eight countries we find that the effects of retirement on self report of health depression and adl are positive in many of these countries

inflation and output in new keynesian models with a transient interest rate peg a familiar result in the canonical dynamic new keynesian dnk model is that policymakers constrained by the zero bound can improve outcomes by promising to keep rates low after the zero bound is not binding we examine a general class of interest rate pegs in a variety of dnk models standard versions of the model produce counterintuitive reversals where the effect of the interest rate peg can switch from highly expansionary to highly contractionary for modest changes in the length of the interest rate peg this unusual behavior does not arise in sticky information models of the phillips curve

the effect of a wife s retirement on her husband s mental health this article examines the effect of wives retirement on their husband s mental health in australia by exploiting the exogenous variations in women s retirement induced by the age pension qualifyi

new keynesian dynamics in a low interest rate environment recent research has found that the dynamic properties of the new keynesian model are unorthodox when the nominal interest rate is zero improvements in technology and reductions in the labor tax rate lower economic activity and the size of the government purchase output multiplier is very large this paper provides evidence that these results are not empirically relevant we show that a prototypical new keynesian model fit to japanese data exhibits orthodox dynamics during japan s episode with zero interest rates we then demonstrate that this specification is more consistent with outcomes in japan than alternative specifications that have unorthodox properties

the impact of age pension eligibility age on retirement and program dependence evidence from an australian experiment abstract governments around the world are reforming their social security systems in light of the challenges posed by population aging we study the 1993 australian age pension reform which progressively increased the eligibility age for women from 60 to 65 years we find economically significant responses to the reform an increase in the eligibility age of one year induced a decline in the probability of retirement by 12 to 19 percentage points in addition the reform induced significant program substitution with increases in enrollment in other social insurance programs particularly the disability support pension which effectively functioned as an alternative source of retirement income

supply side policies in the depression evidence from france the effects of supply side policies in depressed economies are controversial we shed light on this debate using evidence from france in the 1930s in 1936 france departed from the gold standard and implemented mandatory wage increases and hours restrictions deflation ended but output stagnated we present time series and cross sectional evidence that these supply side policies in particular the 40 hour law contributed to french stagflation these results are inconsistent both with the standard one sector new keynesian model and with a medium scale multisector model calibrated to match our cross sectional estimates we conclude that the new keynesian model is a poor guide to the effects of supply side shocks in depressed economies

five facts about prices a reevaluation of menu cost models are price decreases 3 the frequency of price increases covaries strongly with inflation whereas the frequency of price decreases and the size of price increases and price decreases do not 4 the frequency of price change is highly seasonal it is highest in the first quarter and then declines 5 we find no evidence of upwardsloping hazard functions of price changes for individual products we show that the first second and third facts are consistent with a benchmark menu cost model whereas the fourth and fifth facts are not

retirement and health behaviour this article investigates whether and to what extent retirement changes health behaviour for identification we use an instrumental variable approach that exploits exogenous variations in the early

retirement personality and well being this study investigates how two sources of individual heterogeneity personality and gender impact the well being effects of retirement using data on older men and women from the british household panel survey and its continuation understanding society we estimate the causal effect of retirement on satisfaction with overall life and domains of life in the presence of personality characteristics as retirement is often considered to be a choice and thus may be endogenous to individual level characteristics we use the eligibility ages for basic state pension in the united kingdom as instruments for retirement we find that retirement increases leisure satisfaction of both males and females but not necessarily life satisfaction and income satisfaction we further show that certain personality characteristics affect the well being of female retirees for males however personality does not seem to matter in how they cope with retirement jel i31 j26 a12 c23

conducting monetary policy at very low short term interest rates can monetary policy committees accustomed to describing their plans and actions in terms of the level of a short term nominal interest rate find effective means of conducting and communicating their policies when that rate is zero or close to zero the very low levels of interest rates in japan switzerland and the united states in recent years have stimulated much interesting research on this question and have led some central banks to make changes in their operating procedures and communications strategies in this paper we will give a brief overview of current thinking on the conduct of monetary policy when short term interest rates are very low or even zero monetary policy works for the most part by influencing the prices and yields of financial assets which in turn affect economic decisions and thus the evolution of the economy when the short term policy rate is at or near zero the conventional means of effecting monetary ease lowering the target for the policy rate is no longer feasible however it would be a mistake to think that monetary policy was impotent we discuss three strategies for stimulating the economy at an unchanged level of the policy rate these involve i providing assurance to investors that short rates will be kept lower in the future than they currently expect ii changing the relative supplies of securities in the marketplace by altering the composition of the central bank s balance sheet and iii increasing the size of the central bank s balance sheet beyond the level needed to set the short term policy rate at zero quantitative easing we also discuss the costs and benefits of very low interest rates an issue that bears on the question of whether the central bank should take the policy rate all the way to zero before undertaking alternative policies

finessing the unintended outcomes of price cap adjustments an electric utility multi product perspective performance based regulation for electric utilities is now a foreseeable future reality in the united states and in many cases some form of a price cap is likely to be its modus operandi viewing electricity in a multi product context a utility that is constrained by a price cap will likely see either its exogenous sales mix change over time within any customer class or different rates of sales growth among its customer classes in either event the unintended and adverse effect may be a change in the utility s average rate level that results in a price cap violation starting from a base year average rate and moving on to the future the traditional rpi x price cap percentage adjustment provides the utility with a new and violation prone price cap we show that the addition of a specific monetary value to that percentage adjustment will negate any possibility of an unintended price cap violation and thus help the utility stay financially sound we also show how to compute that value from data that are readily available to the utility we do this in the spirit of helping regulators worldwide to restructure energy markets along competitive lines so as to enhance consumer welfare in a wider context this price cap formulation is potentially applicable to price cap regulation in other types of industries that have a multi product and or a multiple customer class context

regime switches agents beliefs and post world war ii u s macroeconomic dynamics the evolution of inflation and output over the last 50 years is examined through the lens of a micro founded model that allows for changes in the behavior of the federal reserve and in the volatility of structural shocks agents are aware of the possibility of regime changes and their beliefs have an impact on the law of motion underlying the macroeconomy the results support the view that there were regime switches in the conduct of monetary policy however the behavior of the federal reserve is identified by repeated fluctuations between a hawk and a dove regime instead of by the traditional pre and post volcker structure counterfactual simulations show that if agents had anticipated the appointment of an extremely conservative chairman inflation would not have reached the peaks of the late 70s and the inflation output trade off would have been less severe these beliefs counterfactuals are new in the literature finally the paper provides a bayesian algorithm to handle the technical difficulties that arise in a rational expectations model with markov switching regimes

the dynamic effects of retirement on well being in this paper we examine whether and to what extent people anticipate their retirement and adapt to it over time for identification we use an instrumental variable approach that exploits the eligi

nonlinear adventures at the zero lower bound abstract in this paper we argue for the importance of explicitly considering nonlinearities in analyzing the behavior of the new keynesian model with a zero lower bound zlb of the nominal interest rate to show this we report how the decision rules and the equilibrium dynamics of the model are substantially affected by the nonlinear features brought about by the zlb we also illustrate a tension between the length of a spell at the zlb and the drop in consumption there

handle with care a primer on incentive regulation regulators increasingly rely upon incentive regulation as a substitute or refinement of traditional cost of service regulation focusing on incentive regulation in the us utility industry this article first identifies four desirable attributes for incentive mechanisms it develops a taxonomy of the types of mechanisms that are available identifies the issues that arise in the design and evaluation of these mechanisms and then closes with a discussion of the risks associated with various mechanisms

were there regime switches in u s monetary policy working paper 2004 14 june 2004 abstract a multivariate model identifying monetary policy and allowing for simultaneity and regime switching in coefficients and variances is confronted with u s data since 1959 the best fit is with a model that allows time variation in structural disturbance variances only among models that also allow for changes in equation coefficients the best fit is for a model that allows coefficients to change only in the monetary policy rule that model allows switching among three main regimes and one rarely and briefly occurring regime the three main regimes correspond roughly to periods when most observers believe that monetary policy actually differed and the differences in policy behavior are substantively interesting though statistically ill determined the estimates imply monetary targeting was central in the early 80s but was also important sporadically in the 70s the changes in regime were essential neither to the rise in inflation in the 70s nor to its decline in the 80s jel classification e52 e47 c53 key words counterfactuals lucas critique policy rule monetary targeting simultaneity volatility model comparison i the debate over monetary policy change in an influential paper clarida gali and gertler 2000 cgg presented evidence that us monetary policy changed between the 1970 s and the 1980 s indeed that in the 70 s it was drastically worse they found that the policy rule apparently followed in the 70 s was one that when embedded in most stochastic general equilibrium models would imply non uniqueness of the equilibrium and hence vulnerability of the economy to sunspot fluctuations of arbitrarily large size their estimated policy rule for the later period on the other hand eliminated this indeterminacy these results are a possible explanation of the volatile and rising inflation of the 70 s and of its subsequent decline the cgg analysis has two important weaknesses one is that it fails to account for stochastic volatility us macroeconomic variables and particularly the federal funds rate have gone through periods of tranquility and of agitation with forecast error variances varying greatly from period to period ignoring such variation does not lead to inconsistent estimates of model parameters when the forecasting equations themselves are constant but it strongly biases toward a finding of changed parameters tests of the stability of the forecasting equations the other weakness is that the cgg analysis rests on powerful and implausible identifying assumptions they require that we accept that the response of the monetary authority to expected future inflation and output does not depend on the recent history of inflation money growth or output it is hard to understand why this should be so especially in the 70 s when monetarism was a prominent theme in policy debates congress was requiring reports from the fed of projected time paths of monetary aggregates and financial markets were reacting sensitively to weekly money supply numbers the requirement for existence and uniqueness of equilibrium in dynamic models is that the monetary policy rule show a more than unit response of interest rates to the sum of the logs of all nominal variables that appear on the right hand side of the reaction function if we force a particular measure of expected future inflation to proxy for all the nominal variables that actually appear independently in the reaction function we are bound to get distorted conclusions on the one hand because expected future inflation will be a noisy measure of the full set of nominal influences on policy we might get downward bias in our estimates from the usual errorsin variables effect on the other hand to the extent that expected future inflation like most expected future values shows less variation than current nominal variables we could find a mistaken scaling up of coefficients

personality and the marginal utility of income personality interacts with increases in household income to determine life satisfaction abstract economics implicitly assumes that the marginal utility of income is independent of an individual s personality we show that this is wrong this is the first demonstration that there are strong personality income interactions in an analysis of 13 615 individuals over 4 years we show that individuals who have high levels of conscientiousness obtain more satisfaction to their lives from increases to their household income there are strong gender differences and women that are open to experiences introverted or neurotic get lower satisfaction from household income increases our findings have important implications for the use of financial incentives to influence behavior in the future public policy may benefit from being personality specific

the effects of the near zero interest rate policy in a regime switching dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model abstract standard dynamic stochastic general equilibrium dsge models cannot explain the near zero interest rate policy near zirp by the federal reserve i study two methods of modeling the near zirp in dsge models the perfect foresight model and the markov regime switching model developed in this paper the near zirp has a significant expansionary effect and the regime switching model generates a more realistic predicted path of macro variables than the perfect foresight model furthermore the government purchases multiplier in the near zirp regime is smaller than what the literature finds at the zero lower bound zlb and the contractionary effects of higher productivity found by the recent literature at the zlb are not present in the regime switching model

incentive enhancing preferences personality behavior and earnings suppose there is a principal agent relationship between employer and employee in which effort is not contractible but is elicited through employer incentive mechanisms we term preferences that allow the employer to elicit effort at lower cost incentive enhancing we analyze how such preferences affect earnings nd then provide evidence that one of the relevant behavioral traits efficacy as well as other psychological aspects of individuals are significant influences on earnings we conclude that measures of cognitive performance are not sufficient indicators of the effectiveness of schools in promoting student labor market success incentive enhancing preferences are irreducibly heterogeneous incentive enhancing preferences help explain the persistence of poverty over generations within families and unlike cognitive skills incentive enhancing traits need not be welfare increasing for their bearers