design and analysis of simulated consumer choice or allocation experiments an approach based on aggregate data the authors integrate concepts in conjoint analysis and discrete choice theory in econometrics to develop a new approach to the design and analysis of controlled consumer choice or resource allocat

understanding heterogeneous preferences in random utility models a latent class approach a finite mixture approach toconditional logit models is developed in whichlatent classes are used to promoteunderstanding of systematic heterogeneity the model is applied to wilderness recreationin which a branded choice experiment involvingchoice of one park from a demand system wasadministered to a sample of recreationists the basis of membership in the classes orsegments in the sample involved attitudinalmeasures of motivations for taking a trip aswell as their stated preferences overwilderness park attributes the econometricanalysis suggested that four classes of peopleexist in the sample using the model toexamine welfare measures of some hypotheticalpolicy changes identified markedly differentwelfare effects than the standard singlesegment model and provided insight into thedifferential impact of alternative policies

the future of macroeconomics macro theory and models at the bank of england abstract the adoption as policy models by central banks of representative agent new keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models has been widely criticised including for their simplistic micro foundations at the bank of england the previous generation of policy models is seen in its 1999 medium term macro model mtmm instead of improving that model to correct its considerable flaws many shared by other non dsge policy models such as the federal reserve s frb us it was replaced in 2004 by the dsge based beqm though this clearly failed during and after the global financial crisis it was replaced in 2011 by the dsge compass complemented by a suite of models we provide a general critique of dsge models for explaining forecasting and policy analyses at central banks and suggest new directions for improving current empirical macroeconomic models based on empirical modelling broadly consistent with better theory rather than seeking to impose simplistic and unrealistic theory

nonmonetary effects of the financial crisis in propagation of the great depression this paper examines the effects of the financial crisis of the 1930s onthe path of aggregate output during that period our approach is complementary to that of friedman and schwartz who emphasized the monetary impact of the bank failures we focus on non monetary primarily credit related aspects of the financial sector output link and consider the problems of debtors as well as those of the banking system we argue that the financial disruptions of 1930 33 reduced the efficiency of the credit allocation process and that the resulting higher cost and reduced availability of credit acted to depress aggregate demand evidence suggests that effects of this type can help explain the unusual length and depth of the great depression this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

irving fisher on the international transmission of booms and depressions through monetary standards the role of monetary standards in the international transmission of economic fluctuations particularly the role of the gold standard in the depression has attracted considerable recent attention for instance from choudhri and kochin 1980 hamilton 1988 temin 1989 1993 eichengreen 1992 and bernanke 1995 however this literature has overlooked a pioneering precursor irving fisher are booms and depressions transmitted internationally through monetary standards 1935 which has also been neglected in the literature on fisher i examine fisher s contribution in the context of later research on the topic and explore the place of fisher 1935 in fisher s work

does inequality matter for the consumption wealth channel empirical evidence abstract this paper studies the heterogeneity of the marginal propensity to consume out of wealth based on french household surveys this heterogeneity is driven by differences in both wealth composition and wealth levels we find a decreasing marginal propensity to consume out of wealth across the wealth distribution for all net wealth components the marginal propensity to consume out of financial assets tends to be higher compared with the effect of housing assets except at the top of the wealth distribution the marginal propensity to consume out of housing wealth increases with debt pressure and depends on debt composition based on a simulation exercise we find a limited effect of wealth shocks on consumption inequality an increase in stock prices tends however to slightly increase consumption inequality especially at the top of the distribution

conformity and the demand for environmental goods the existing literature on eco labeling and green consumerism has been framed within a classical market context where price and quality are the drivers of consumer choice however it seems possible that consumers are also concerned about the choices made by other consumers in fact it is unclear that people s consumption decisions are made independently of social context for instance under the desire to conform to certain social norms or in the presence of status concerns some individuals may be willing to pay a higher price premium for green products the more widespread green consumerism is in society we test this hypothesis using a choice experiment where the respondents were asked to choose among coffee products varying with respect to their share of ecological beans share of fair trade beans and price three treatments were used differing only in the information given about the choices made by other consumers we find different responses to the treatments across individuals and we can only confirm our hypothesis of conformity for women although men appear to have stronger preferences for ecological coffee than women have

the world on a cross of gold for many years the yin and yang of the debate about the causes of the great depression were the monetary history of the united states 1867 1960 by milton friedman and anna schwartz 1963 and peter temin s 1976 book did monetary forces cause the great depression as all monetary economists know in their book friedman and schwartz made the depression a central case study in support of their contention that historically monetary instability has been a major source of fluctuations in the real economy in their famous chapter on the great contraction which was later released as a separate volume friedman and schwartz attributed the collapse of production and prices in the united states particularly the disastrous 1931 33 slide to a precipitous decline in the u s money supply the proximate cause of this monetary contraction was not any direct action by the monetary authorities but rather a series of severe banking crises between late 1930 and early 1933 spasmodic panics induced the public to convert deposits into currency raising the aggregate currency deposit ratio and causing a decline in the ratio of inside money to the monetary base despite the largely unintended nature of the monetary contraction however friedman and schwartz placed the major portion of blame for the depression on the shoulders of the federal reserve which

the stability pact more than a minor nuisance stability pact more than a minor nuisance the stability and growth pact will lead member countries to aim for cyclically balanced budgets until this steady state is reached europe will continue its efforts at de cit cutting while so doing politicians are less likely to undertake the dif cult labour market reforms that are really needed is further scal retrenchment wise the paper reviews the reasons that have been advanced in favour of a stability pact and nds them wanting the most serious justi cations such as the systemic risk of bank crisis following a government s failure to service its debt can be better dealt with in other ways for example by prudential limits on banks exposure to public debts moreover our analysis reveals that the macroeconomic costs of the stability pact while sizeable are not as dangerous as often believed the costs will be barely visible once the steady state is reached the true macroeconomic costs are front loaded they concern the next few years after a decade already dominated by convergence efforts barry eichengreen and charles wyplosz

transmission of the great depression to a first approximation the question of how the great depression spread from country to country is short and straightforward fixed exchange rates under the gold standard transmitted negative demand shocks the first half of this paper consequently will describe current thinking about the relationship between the gold standard and the great depression the second half of the paper will look at a phenomenon not included in this first approximation financial crises many have noted that banking panics and currency crises are bad for national economies but few have tried to model their international spread

consumer valuation of health attributes for soy based food a choice modeling approach abstract given that soy foods possess health promoting attributes that offer the promise of reducing heart related chronic diseases this article employs choice experiments to estimate marginal willingness to pay wtp for soy attributes including taste contents of soy protein and health claim random parameter logit rpl models were estimated in consideration of potential heterogeneity across individuals in their preferences for soy food standard deviation parameters in the rpl models are highly significant indicating that individuals have widely varying preferences for soy based food products results suggest that while taste is the dominating attribute that drives consumers wtp for soy food products consumers do respond to the information provided in the health claim yet consumers do not seem to be recognizing soy protein as the link to health benefits of soy foods

inferred and stated attribute non attendance in food choice experiments we review the current literature on attribute non attendance in stated choice and use data from beef and chicken choice experiments using both inference and the respondents own statements inference is based on panel data analysis by mixed logit models of choice with both discrete and continuous mixtures of coefficients and is conditional on the observed pattern of choice information from respondent statements on non attendance is directly embedded in the specification of the indirect utility function results show no clear winner between the inferential approaches but the inference based on constrained latent class panel models better matches the observed data

when credit bites back using data on 14 advanced countries between 1870 and 2008 we document two key facts of the modern business cycle relative to typical recessions financial crisis recessions are costlier and more credit intensive expansions tend to be followed by deeper recessions in financial crises or otherwise and slower recoveries we use local projection methods to condition on a broad set of macro economic controls to study how past credit accumulation impacts key macro economic variables such as output investment lending interest rates and inflation the facts that we uncover lend support to the idea that financial factors play an important role in the modern business cycle

financial factors in the great depression eginning with irving fisher 1933 and john maynard keynes 1931 b 1963 macroeconomists have argued that financial markets were important sources and propagators of decline during the great depression turning points during the depression often coincided with or were preceded by dramatic events in financial markets stock market collapse waves of bankruptcy and bank failure and contractions in the money stock but the mechanism through which financial factors contributed to the depression has been a source of controversy as has been the relative importance of financial factors in explaining the origins and persistence of the depression this essay reviews the literature on the role of financial factors in the depression and draws some lessons that have more general relevance for the study of the depression and for macroeconomics i argue that much of the recent progress that has been made in understanding some of the most important and puzzling aspects of financial real links in the depression followed a paradigm shift in economics a central neglected theoretical piece of the story for financial factors was the allocative effects of imperfections in capital markets which can imply links between disruptions in financial markets and subsequent economic activity also the increasing emphasis on learning and path dependence in economics has helped to explain why financial shocks during the 1930s were so severe and why policy makers failed to prevent the depression

incorporating discontinuous preferences into the analysis of discrete choice experiments data from a discrete choice experiment on improvements of rural landscape attributes are used to investigate the implications of discontinuous preferences on willingness to pay estimates using a multinomial error component logit model we explore differences in scale and unexplained variance between respondents with discontinuous and continuous preferences and condition taste intensities on whether or not each attribute was considered by the respondent during the evaluation of alternatives results suggest that significant improvements in model performance can be achieved when discontinuous preferences are accommodated in the econometric specification and that the magnitude and robustness of the willingness to pay estimates are sensitive to discontinuous preferences

how does credit supply expansion affect the real economy the productive capacity and household demand channels credit supply expansion can affect an economy by increasing productive capacity or by boosting household demand in this study we develop a test to determine if the household demand channel is present and we implement the test using both a natural experiment in the united states in the 1980s and an international panel of 56 countries over the last several decades consistent with the importance of the household demand channel we find that credit supply expansion boosts nontradable sector employment and the price of nontradable goods with limited effects on tradable sector employment such credit expansions amplify the business cycle and lead to more severe recessions

are choice experiments incentive compatible a test with quality differentiated beef steaks this study compares hypothetical and nonhypothetical responses to choice experiment questions we test for hypothetical bias in a choice experiment involving beef ribeye steaks with differing quality attributes in general hypothetical responses predicted higher probabilities of purchasing beef steaks than nonhypothetical responses thus hypothetical choices overestimate total willingness to pay for beef steaks however marginal willingness to pay for a change in steak quality is in general not statistically different across hypothetical and actual payment settings

facts and ideas in microeconomic theory the title of my lecture is quite pretentious therefore let me first restrict the subject somewhat i will not speak on microeconomics in general but on demand theory in particular the less pretentious title facts and ideas in demand theory would be a fairer description of the content of my lecture if it comes to demand theory i enjoy reading in hicks a reoision of demand theory i read this book in parts again and again let me quote now a few lines on p 4

physician payments under health care reform abstract this study examines the impact of major health insurance reform on payments made in the health care sector we study the prices of services paid to physicians in the privately insured market during the massachusetts health care reform the reform increased the number of insured individuals as well as introduced an online marketplace where insurers compete we estimate that over the reform period physician payments increased at least 11 percentage points relative to control areas payment increases began around the time legislation passed the house and senate the period in which their was a high probability of the bill eventually becoming law this result is consistent with fixed duration payment contracts being negotiated in anticipation of future demand and competition

the spectre of deflation a review of empirical evidence what explains the widespread fear of deflation this article reviews the history of thought economic history and empirical evidence on deflation with a view to answering this question it also outlines informally the main effects of deflation in applied monetary models the main finding is that for both historical and contemporary deflations there are many open empirical questions that could be answered using the tools economists use to study inflation and monetary policy more generally qu est ce qui explique la peur tres repandue de la deflation ce memoire fait un tour d horizon de l histoire de la pensee economique de l histoire economique et des resultats empiriques quant aux effets de la deflation en vue de repondre a cette question on fait aussi echo informellement aux effets principaux de la deflation dans les modeles monetaires appliques ce qui ressort principalement de ce travail est que tant pour les deflations dans l histoire que dans le monde contemporain il y a bien des questions empiriques encore irresolues auxquelles on pourrait donner une reponse en utilisant l outillage mental que les economistes utilisent pour etudier l inflation et la politique monetaire plus generalement sp c tre n thing that is thought to be seen but has no material existence haunting presentiment of ruin war madness etc

demand effects in stated preference surveys abstract we argue that demand effects in stated preference studies are understudied by demand effects we mean anything in the survey that unintentionally influences respondents beliefs about appropriate behavior which in turn might affect their responses in the survey we implement two methods for measuring and implicitly reducing the influence of demand effects the first approach random selection of good to be valued does not have any effect on respondent behavior the second approach a demand script and a control question with feedback has a sizable and statistically significant effect on respondent behavior in particular estimated marginal willingness to pay for improvements in water quality are substantially around 50 percent lower than a control treatment we attribute this decrease to a reduced demand effect our results suggest that stated preference methods tend to lead to biased willingness to pay estimates due to demand effects but that the bias can be reduced using simple measures

forest tenure reform in china a choice experiment on farmers property rights preferences decentralization experiments are currently underway in the chinese forestry sector however researchers and policy makers tend to ignore a key question what do forest farmers really want from reform this paper addresses this question using a survey based choice experiment to investigate farmers preferences for various property rights attributes of a forestland contract we found that farmers are highly concerned with the types of rights provided by a contract reducing perceived risks of contract termination and introducing a priority right for the renewal of an existing contract significantly increases farmers marginal willingness to pay for a forest contract

gender specific starting point bias in choice experiments evidence from an empirical study abstract in this paper we test whether preferences and willingness to pay estimates obtained in a choice experiment study are susceptible to starting point bias as is often the case in dichotomous choice contingent valuation studies on the basis of a multinomial probit model we find that preferences are indeed susceptible to starting point bias in a split sample design our results suggest that varying the price levels displayed in a so called instructional choice set presented prior to the actual preference eliciting choice sets significantly impacts respondents preferences and willingness to pay for protecting danish nature areas from new motorway development in particular our results show that the bias is gender specific only female respondents are significantly affected results further reveal that the impact of the starting point bias decays as respondents evaluate more and more choice sets this supports the discovered preference hypothesis and on the basis of this we suggest a number of ways to potentially mitigate the starting point bias

credence goods costly diagnosis and subjective evaluation we study contracting between a consumer and an expert the expert can invest in diagnosis to obtain a noisy signal about whether a low cost service is sufficient or whether a high cost treatment is required to solve the consumer s problem this involves moral hazard because diagnosis effort and signals are not observable treatments are contractible but success or failure of the low cost treatment is observed only by the consumer payments can therefore not depend on the objective outcome but only the consumer s report or subjective evaluation a failure of the low cost treatment delays the solution of the consumer s problem by the high cost treatment to a second period we show that the first best solution can always be implemented if the parties discount rate is zero an increase in the discount rate reduces the range of parameter combinations for which the first best can be obtained in an extension we show that the first best is also always implementable if diagnosis and treatment can be separated by contracting with two different agents

debt deflation theory and evidence abstract in the early 1990s the most severe recessions occurred in those countries which had experienced the largest increases in private debt burdens was this an accident of history or did it reflect deeper forces affecting market economies the paper comprises three parts first it presents three stylised facts about debt and its impact on consumption growth in the 1930s and the 1990s second it discusses the reception of irving fisher s work on debt deflation by his contemporaries and argues that it is helpful to think of debt deflation as a real business cycle phenomenon third there is a theoretical discussion of the reaction of debt and consumption to shocks in the context of a model of precautionary saving central to the model is the role of distributional shocks which implies that aggregate demand may be a nonmonotonic function of the price of assets in terms of the consumption good multiple equilibria may exist leading to the possibility of financial instability the analysis of debt deflation requires the construction of real business cycle models without a representative consumer

the truth the whole truth and nothing but the truth a multiple country test of an oath script hypothetical bias is one of the main issues bedeviling the field of nonmarket valuation the general criticism is that survey responses reflect how people would like to behave rather than how they actually behave in our study of climate change and carbon emissions reductions based on the increasing bulk of evidence from psychology and economics regarding the effects of making promises we investigate the effect of an oath script in a contingent valuation survey the survey was conducted in sweden and china and its results indicate that an oath script has significant effects on respondent behavior in answering willingness to pay wtp questions in both countries the shares of zero wtp responses and extremely high wtp responses decrease when an oath script is used resulting in lower variance furthermore the conditional wtp decreases in the chinese but not in the swedish sample we also find that the effect of the oath script is not generally dependent on respondent characteristics and the few differences we observe vary with the countries

do hypothetical and actual marginal willingness to pay differ in choice experiments application to the valuation of the environment abstract in this paper we test the validity of choice experiments with donations for environmental projects in particular we test whether or not there are differences in preferences between a hypothetical and an actual choice experiment our experiments indicate no differences in addition internal tests of validity indicate transitive and stable preferences in both experiments although there are some indications of possible learning effects during the experiment

the nation in depression t he economic cataclysm of the 1930s was an international phenomenon experienced by countries in all parts of the globe countries as diverse as the united states germany chile and japan all experienced significant depressions in the 1930s thus the title of charles kindleberger s classic book the world in depression 1973 captures an important feature of the great depression these international aspects especially the importance of the gold standard in causing the downturn and transmitting depression from one country to another have been emphasized in recent years in excellent books by peter temin 1989 and barry eichengreen 1992 these books have rightly received widespread attention and have successfully changed the focus of much analysis of the great depression from the united states to the world economy while such a change from american provincialism is surely healthy and warranted adopting an international perspective on the great depression risks losing sight of the many ways in which the u s depression differed in timing and severity from depressions elsewhere more important it may obscure the many uniquely american causes of america s great depression this paper examines the ways in which the u s experience during the 1930s resembled that of other countries in some regards and fundamentally differed in other aspects i also evaluate the evidence on the causes of the great depression in the united states and the sources of the eventual recovery i suggest that the path of american output and unemployment before 1931 can be explained quite well with only domestic factors even after 1931

low energy efficiency in rental properties asymmetric information or low willingness to pay abstract asymmetric information may explain low energy efficiency in rented properties energy ratings while a solution to the information problem will only lead to higher efficiency levels if renter s willingness to pay wtp exceeds landlord s investment costs using a sample of renters from one university this paper estimates this wtp using a discrete choice experiment where respondents choose from a hypothetical set of single bedroom apartments that differ according to a number of attributes including the energy rating results show that there is a strong disutility associated with the least efficient properties and that renters will pay significantly more for efficiency improvements at the lower end of the efficiency scale importantly our wtp estimates are calculated in a setting where respondents were informed about the energy rating system prior to choosing and where the rating was shown for every property therefore in order to maximise the impact of energy rating systems policymakers are encouraged to ensure that both these informational characteristics are in place

valuing indigenous cattle breeds in kenya an empirical comparison of stated and revealed preference value estimates abstract in this study we compare revealed and stated preference approaches to value traits of cattle in kenya the premise is that much can be learnt about non market values of indigenous animal genetic resources angr from the use of multi attribute stated preference methods if these compare well with revealed preference results the objective is to investigate the performance of choice experiments ces in maasai cattle trading by conducting an external test of preference consistency we compare value estimates for cattle attributes from ces data with those from hedonic analysis of actual transactions by the same population of traders in the same markets and over the same period if ces perform well they can be used to investigate values of those genetically determined livestock traits currently not prominent in pastoralists populations but desirable candidates for breeding or conservation programmes e g disease resistance the results indicate that ce estimates pass the external test and appear to be adequately precise in estimating values for cattle traits that are relevant in market transactions for maasai traders accounting for taste and variance heterogeneity does not change this conclusion ces may therefore be a promising tool for valuing phenotypic traits expressed by indigenous angr

an incentive compatible conjoint ranking mechanism a simple method for making ranking based conjoint analysis incentive compatible is proposed the incentive compatible mechanism involves people purchasing a product profile with a probability proportional to its assigned rank in an empirical application related to consumer preferences for beef attributes we find that the forecasted market share for a new pasture raised steak obtained using incentive compatible rankings was significantly greater than that implied from traditional hypothetical conjoint rankings people s rankings of ground beef products were not affected by the mechanism or by information about pasture raised beef copyright 2008 oxford university press

should all choices count using the cut offs approach to edit responses in a choice experiment should we give equal weight to all responses in a choice experiment previous choice modelling papers have considered the issue of the internal consistency of choices such as the extent to which strictly dominated options are chosen in this paper a different focus is employed namely the extent to which people choose options which violate their stated upper or lower limits for the acceptable levels for individual attributes since hypothetical over statement of wtp has been a focus in stated preference studies we concentrate on violations of stated upper limits of wtp and explore the effects of editing such choices using a variable censoring rule and alternative approaches to re classifying choices the empirical case study is a choice experiment on eco tourists in rwanda our main conclusion is that the suggested approach offers a useful way of imposing consistency on choices and that editing choices in this manner has an appreciable impact on estimated willingness to pay however issues remain with regard to explaining why people apparently violate their stated maximum willingness to pay

using choice experiments to value the environment this paper we outline the choice experiment approach to environmental valuation this approach has its roots in lancaster s characteristics theory of value in random utility theory and in experimental design we show how marginal values for the attributes of environmental assets such as forests and rivers can be estimated from pair wise choices as well as the value of the environmental asset as a whole these choice pairs are designed so as to allow efficient statistical estimation of the underlying utility function and to minimise required sample size choice experiments have important advantages over other environmental valuation methods such as contingent valuation and travel cost type models although many design issues remain unresolved applications to environmental issues have so far been relatively limited we illustrate the use of choice experiments with reference to a recent uk study on public preferences for alternative forest landscapes this study allows us to perform a convergent validity test on the choice experiment estimates of willingness to pay

household debt and spending during the financial crisis evidence from danish micro data abstract we use data for nearly 500 000 danish households to study the relationship between household leverage prior to the financial crisis of 2007 2009 and the development in spending over the course of the crisis we find a strong negative correlation between pre crisis leverage and the change in spending during the crisis this reflects that highly levered households spent a larger share of their income than their less levered peers prior to the crisis resulting in larger increases in debt in these years once we condition on the size of the pre crisis change in debt a high level of debt is no longer associated with a larger spending decline our results suggest that the larger decline in spending among high leverage households is the result of a spending normalization pattern that is also found in other years rather than a causal effect of high debt levels suppressing household spending during the crisis

contingent valuation a new perspective after several decades of academic research on the contingent valuation cv method a consistent behavioral explanation of hypothetical bias is still lacking based on evidence from economics economic psychology and the political sciences i propose an explanation that is based on two simple working hypotheses about respondent behaviour in contingent valuation surveys the first hypothesis is that survey respondents are unable to form consistent preferences about unfamiliar goods unless the choice context offers reliable informative cues that can be rationally exploited in simplified heuristics the second hypothesis is that the probability and impact of strategic responses in dichotomous choice questions about public goods depends on the extent to which the presented hypothetical costs differ from the actual costs the literature on hypothetical bias is revisited in the light of these behavioral hypotheses i find that the hypotheses are generally supported by the empirical data moreover the hypotheses are able to explain several important empirical phenomena that previous research has not been able to explain in particular they solve the puzzle that pre election polls but not cv surveys are able to predict actual referendum outcomes and they explain why income effects on willingness to pay are lower in cv responses than in actual votes if confirmed by further studies the hypotheses will have important implications for future research and practice first the hypothetical costs presented in the dichotomous choice question should to be close enough to the actual costs to be credible to all respondents this can be achieved by specifying the costs as a percentage rather than absolute change in taxes second the respondents should be given the option to answer based on information about the positions of large parties and interest groups with known political orientation rather than based on the raw policy information theory and evidence suggest that this new survey paradigm largely eliminates the fundamental problems of the conventional stated preference methods

economics and identity this paper considers how identity a person s sense of self affects economic outcomes we incorporate the psychology and sociology of identity into an economic model of behavior in the utility function we propose identity is associated with different social categories and how people in these categories should behave we then construct a simple game theoretic model showing how identity can affect individual interactions the paper adapts these models to gender discrimination in the workplace the economics of poverty and social exclusion and the household division of labor in each case the inclusion of identity substantively changes conclusions of previous economic analysis

convergent validity of attribute based choice questions in stated preference studies the application of attribute based choice questions is well established in the marketing literature but there are unique aspects of the design that warrant investigation to assess their validity for economic welfare estimation three design issues are investigated in this paper 1 the placement of the monetary stimulus policy cost to respondents in the sequence of attributes 2 the number of policy alternatives respondents are asked to consider in choice questions two versus three and 3 the inclusion versus exclusion of a status quo alternative in choice questions the data used to implement these investigations are from a survey designed to estimate the value maine residents place on a farmland conservation easement program tests of convergent validity indicate that the placement of the monetary stimulus first versus last in the list of attributes did not affect estimates of preference parameters significant differences between questions with three versus two alternatives did occur and the inclusion exclusion of a status quo alternative did not affect preference parameters

full insurance in the presence of aggregate uncertainty this paper tests implications of full consumption insurance the object is to determine how much mileage can be obtained from a model with complete markets with such features as private information or liquidity constraints omitted the implication exploited is that individual consumption responds to aggregate risk but not to idiosyncratic risk the test involves regressing the change in household consumption onto the change in aggregate consumption and other right hand side variables such as the change in household income and change in employment status all variables other than the change in aggregate consumption are predicted to be insignificant in explaining the change in household consumption with observations on consumption and income for 10 695 households from the consumer expenditure survey the results are mixed the results for one specification exponential utility are mostly consistent with full consumption insurance the results for the other specification power utility are not

tough and easy choices testing the influence of utility difference on stated certainty in choice in choice experiments respondents in stated preference studies may be uncertain about their preferences for the good presented to them inspired by wang j environ econ manag 32 219 232 1997 we hypothesize that respondents stated certainty in choice increases with the utility difference between the alternative chosen and the best alternative to that we test this hypothesis using data from two independent choice experiments both focusing on nature values in modelling respondents self reported certainty in choice we find evidence that the stated level of certainty increases significantly as utility difference in choice sets increases in addition stated certainty increases with income furthermore there is some evidence that male respondents are inherently more certain in their choices than females and a learning effect may increase stated certainty we find evidence of this in the first study where the good is described in rather broad and generic terms but not in the second study where a more specific description of the good is used

learning and fatigue effects revisited investigating the effects of accounting for unobservable preference and scale heterogeneity using multiple choice tasks per respondent in discrete choice experiment studies increases the amount of available information however respondents learning and fatigue may lead to changes in observed utility function preference taste parameters as well as the variance in its error term scale they need to be controlled to avoid potential bias a sizable body of empirical research offers mixed evidence in terms of whether these ordering effects are observed we point to a significant component in explaining these differences we show how accounting for unobservable preference and scale heterogeneity can influence the magnitude of observed ordering effects

the great recession lessons from microeconomic data crises and sharp economic downturns while undesirable provide economists with a unique opportunity to test and hone economic theory indeed some of the most influential advance ments in economic thought including milton friedman s monetarist tradition john maynard keynes fiscal theory and irving fisher s debtdeflation hypothesis emerged from analysis of the great depression the current economic malaise which we refer to as the great recession provides another watershed moment to reevaluate our core economic beliefs however in contrast to our peers in previous crises we are fortunate to have access to large scale microeconomic datasets and advancements in computational capacity these advantages allow for a more rigorous analysis of the current recession and therefore a more informed understanding of its origins propagation and consequences our purpose is to highlight how a micro level analysis of the great recession provides us with important clues to understand the origins of the crisis the link between credit and asset prices the feedback effect from asset prices to the real economy and the role of household leverage in explaining the downturn we hope that our discussion also serves as an example of the useful ness of incorporating microeconomic data and techniques in answering traditional macroeco nomic questions i what were the origins of the credit cycle credit demand or credit supply

a simple test of consumption insurance are consumers effectively insured against idiosyncratic shocks to income or wealth either by formal institutions such as charities private insurance and government programs or by informal mechanisms such as gifts and loans from relatives friends and neighbors under full insurance consumption growth should be cross sectionally independent of idiosyncratic variables that are exogenous to consumers this proposition is tested by cross sectional regressions of consumption growth on a variety of exogenous variables full insurance is rejected for long illness and involuntary job loss but not for spells of unemployment loss of work due to strike and an involuntary move

effect of experimental design on choice based conjoint valuation estimates in this article we investigate the effect of several commonly used experimental designs on willingness to pay in a monte carlo environment where true utility parameters are known all experimental designs considered in this study generated unbiased valuation estimates however random designs or designs that explicitly incorporated attribute interactions generated more precise valuation estimates than main effects only designs a key result of our analysis is that a large sample size can substitute for a poor experimental design overall our results indicate that certain steps can be taken to achieve a manageably sized experimental design without sacrificing the credibility of welfare estimates

an investigation into procedural in variance in the valuation of mortality risk reductions abstract this study investigates whether elicited preferences are affected by the presentation of mortality risks in a stated preference survey we elicited willingness to pay for public risk reducing initiatives under three different but outcome equivalent presentation format results from a discrete choice experiment demonstrate that presentation format influences the valuation of mortality risk reductions which to varying degrees depends on the respondent s level of concern and numeracy marginal willingness to pay for a risk reduction increases significantly when framed in terms of avoided fatalities compared to corresponding frequencies furthermore we find that less numerate respondents are more influenced by the inclusion of the number of fatalities in the presentation format the same pattern is observed for respondents who express a higher degree of concern for a traffic accident

preference elicitation under oath eliciting sincere preferences for non market goods remain a challenge due to the discrepency between hypothetical and real behavior and false zeros the gap arises because people either overstate hypothetical values or understate real commitments or a combination of both herein we examine whether the traditional real world institution of the solemn oath can improve preference elicitation applying the social psychology theory on the oath as a truth telling commitment device we ask our bidders to swear on their honour to give honest answers prior to participating in an incentive compatible second price auction the oath is an ancillary mechanism to commit bidders to bid sincerely in a second price auction results from our induced valuation testbed treatments suggest that the oath only auctions outperform all our other auctions real and hypothetical in our homegrown valuation treatments eliciting preferences for dolphin protection the oath only design induced people to treat as binding both their experimental budget constraint i e lower values on the high end of the value distribution and participation constraint i e positive values in place of the zero bids used to opt out of auction based on companion treatments we show the oath works through an increase in the willingness to tell the truth due to a strengthening of the intrinsic motivation to do so

who pays for bank insolvency in transition and emerging economies abstract this paper explores the equity of the way losses from bank insolvencies and their avoidance through intervention by the authorities have been distributed over creditors depositors owners and the population at large in transition and emerging economies it suggests a number of regulatory reforms that would alter the balance between seeking to avoid insolvency and lowering the costs of insolvency should it occur it considers whether a lex specialis for dealing with problem banks by prompt corrective action and if necessary resolving them if their net worth falls to zero at little or no cost to the taxpayer can be applied in the circumstances of transition and emerging economies

asset bubbles leverage and lifeboats elements of the east asian crisis collapsing credit markets have been blamed for the depth and persistence of the great depression in the united states could similar mechanisms have played a role in ending the east asian economic miracle and in creating fragility in global financial markets after a brief account of the nature of the east asian crises of 1997 8 we use the framework of highly leveraged fully collaterised firms due to kiyotaki and moore 1997 to explore the impact of a credit crunch the paper emphasises the fragility of equilibrium and how rapidly boom can turn to bust

dynamic hypothetical bias in discrete choice experiments evidence from measuring the impact of corporate social responsibility on consumers demand abstract this paper is aimed at studying the dynamics of consumers preferences for corporate social responsibility the data come from both a discrete choice experiment dce and a field experiment conducted in a real market setting the results show that in a static setting first month predictions of a standard dce study and real market shares are statistically similar for the various profiles of corporate social responsibility however as time evolves real market shares present some dynamic patterns that are not mirrored by the standard dce predictions the overall conclusion is that differences between real market behavior and dce data can be attributed to the lack of learning experience or adaptation in dce surveys rather than to the hypothetical nature of the experiments

endogenous cycles in a stiglitz weiss economy the literature on financial imperfections and business cycles has focused onpropagation mechanisms in this paper we model a purereversion mechanism such that the economy may converge to a two period equilibrium cycle this mechanism confirms that financial imperfections may have a dramatic amplification effect unlike in some related models contracts are complete indexation is not assumed away the welfare properties of a possible stabilizing policy are analyzed the model itself is a dynamic extension of the well known stiglitz weiss model of lending under moral hazard although stylized the model still captures some important features of credit cycles

precautionary saving in the small and in the large the theory of precautionary saving is shown to be isomorphic to the arrow pratt theory of risk aversion making possible the application of a large body of knowledge about risk aversion to precautionary saving and more generally to the theory of optimal choice under risk in particular a measure of the strength of the precautionary saving motive analogous to the arrow pratt measure of risk aversion is used to establish a number of new propositions about precautionary saving and to give a new interpretation of the dreze modigliani substitution effect copyright 1990 by the econometric society