formally testing the present value model of farmland prices this paper applies recent statistical developments in the study of stock market price movements to study the plausibility of the constant expected returns version of the present value model as an explanation of farmland prices using iowa farmland price and rent data over the 1921 86 sample period formal test results indicate that although farmland price and rent movements are highly correlated price movements are not consistent with the implications of this model there appear to be persistent predictable excess positive and or negative returns in the iowa farmland market

grain transport and rural credit in mozambique solving the space time problem this paper shows how credit market failures can lead to large welfare losses in grain markets by inducing increased transport for seasonal storage in locations with low credit costs the burden of these welfare losses falls primarily on rural households these conclusions are obtained from a spatial temporal model solved using a mixed complementarity formulation that easily handles interest rate differentials across space efforts to address credit market failures and to improve the efficiency of rural storage should be given priority as opposed to the creation of large formal sector grain collection centers

spatial and temporal marketing considerations under marketing loan programs marketing assistance loan mal and loan deficiency payment ldp programs differ in their treatment of transportation costs marketing decisions are analyzed under these programs when producers are differentiated by location with respect to the terminal market under certain conditions a complete characterization of equilibrium is developed the proposed model broadly fits several stylized facts about producer enrollment in these programs if ldps are uniform at all locations ldp programs do not interfere with marketing decisions mal programs distort the optimal marketing pattern by providing incentives to store for producers who should be among the first ones to supply the market

the public capital stock needs trends and performance the condition of america s roads bridges mass transit systems and water and sewer facilities has become an issue of increasing controversy one view holds that deterioration of this public infrastructure capital has reached alarming proportions and that a significant fraction of future national savings will be needed to reverse the damage of past neglect another view argues that there has been no sudden acceleration of decay in capital stock performance that better facility management can often substitute for capital investment and that attempts to greatly increase the size and condition of the public capital stock would place unsustainable pressure on financial markets state and local government budgets and the federal system of grants in aid how extensive is the capital infrastructure problem how did it arise given the many federal government subsidies available for state local capital expenditure how much of the national capacity for capital formation should be allocated to solving the problem if there is a divergence between actual and desired infrastructure capital can the gap be closed without disrupting the growth of other sectors and governmental objectives these questions are unfortunately much easier to pose than to answer there is only limited information about the size and condition of the stock of public infrastructure capital and much of the available information has been assembled from the perspective of engineering or planning needs standards needs assessments typically indicate the fraction of the infrastructure stock that falls below a specified and somewhat arbitrary level of performance or indicate how much spending would be required to bring the existing stock up to the specified standard while sometimes appropriate as a management tool infrastructure needs estimates are formulated in isolation from other public and private capital needs and are thus ill suited to the policy debate over national priorities despite significant data problems some general conclusions about the infrastructure dilemma are possible as a backdrop for these conclusions the first section of this paper presents an overview of the historical trends in public sector capital formation and infrastructure condition the following section discusses the factors shaping these trends with particular attention to the supply and demand components of the capital spending decision we then consider the question of whether existing trends will insure an adequate supply of public capital and address the issue of whether a reduced quantity and quality of infrastructure capital may be expected to reduce private sector productivity growth

side effects of nonlinear profit taxes in an evolutionary market entry model abrupt changes coexisting attractors and hysteresis problems in order to demonstrate that nonlinear tax systems may have surprising and potentially undesirable side effects we develop an evolutionary market entry model in which firms decide on the basis of past profit opportunities whether or not to enter a competitive market our main focus is on the case of a proportional tax on positive profits such a piecewise linear tax scheme induces a kink in the firms profit functions and may lead to abrupt changes in a market s dynamics coexisting attractors and hysteresis problems since these phenomena can also be observed in more general models a proper understanding of their basic mechanism may be helpful to explain the intricate behavior of many economic systems

location determinants of food manufacturers in the united states 2000 2004 are nonmetropolitan counties competitive infrastructure agglomeration product and input markets fiscal attributes and labor markets of local communities influenced food manufacturing location decisions in the lower 48 united states 2000 2004 negative binomial regression and spatial clustering methods forecast food processor location patterns at the county level noncore counties are at a comparative disadvantage with respect to attracting most food processors but nonmetropolitan counties adjacent to urban areas may be attractive investment sites for footloose supply and demand oriented food manufacturers

cash marketing styles and performance persistence much agricultural economics research has been dedicated to determining the best time for producers to sell their commodities unlike this past research we look at how producers actually sell commodities the extent to which producers display an active or mechanical marketing style is measured using individual farmer sales the activeness of a producer s marketing strategy is measured by how much the timing of their strategy varies from year to year results show no relationship between activeness and net prices received furthermore the results show no evidence of performance persistence by individual producers

the disposition effect in farmers selling behavior an experimental investigation the identification of the optimal selling time of stored goods is among the most essential economic decisions on a farm beyond monetary aspects behavioral factors influence farmers selling decisions in financial economics the disposition effect is a commonly observed phenomenon it describes the fact that investors hold losing stocks too long while they sell stocks that gained in value too early in the context of agriculture this behavioral bias has not been analyzed thoroughly yet to close this research gap we conducted an incentivized online experiment with 112 farmers from germany the experimental design was based on a well proven experiment from financial economics and adapted to an agricultural decision context where stored goods must be sold farmers were provided information on the uncertain price developments in addition lotteries were conducted to elicit farmers risk attitude probability weighting and loss aversion results indicate that there is a robust disposition effect in farmers selling behavior furthermore more loss averse farmers exhibited a higher realization of gains

an analysis of growth of u s farmland prices 1963 82 increases in expected inflation or real growth in net rental income to land have been proposed as alternative explanations of the dramatic real growth in u s farmland prices in the 1970s in this paper the effect of inflation is shown to be theoretically ambiguous an empirical analysis using u s and international farmland prices suggests that most of the real land price growth can be explained by real growth in net rental income to land increases in expected inflation have had a negative effect on real land prices but the effect of inflation has been comparatively small

the electoral budget cycle on municipal waste collection expenditure abstractthis article analyses the determinants of municipal waste collection expenditure specifically the effects of electoral cycles on municipal waste collection expenditure we use a database with information on spanish municipalities with more than 1000 inhabitants for the period 2002 2011 our results reveal that incumbents adopt an opportunistic behaviour increasing spending on waste in the preelection year and reducing it in the election and post election years therefore we confirm an electoral budget cycle on waste collection expenditures in spain additionally we find that the levels of income unemployment and upper level governments transfers have a positive impact on waste collection spending finally population density level of urbanization average age of the population of the municipality and less fragmented governments negatively influence waste collection spending

productivity change in state and local governments a model is developed in this paper which allows the growth rate of public sector productivity to be estimated without an explicit measure of sectoral output in this model communities are regarded as generalized households and the goods and services provided by the community s government are interpreted as internally produced household goods the model is then fitted to quarterly data from the u s national income and product accounts and the rate of productivity change is found to average 0 50 per year for the period 1959 1979 the sources of growth approach to productivity measurement distinguishes between the growth in real output due to the growth in factor inputs capital labor materials and the growth in output due to advances in technology managerial practice and other factors related to productive efficiency the former are collectively associated with the movement along an aggregate or sectoral production function while the latter are associated with the shift in that function 2 in practice the shift in the production function is measured by the residual real output not attributed to the growth of the share weighted inputs and termed total factor productivity the sources of growth model is based on the underlying assumption that real output and real input can be measured with a reasonable degree of accuracy while this presumption is correct for many types of economic activity it is essentially incorrect for those sectors which produce services as kendrick 1982 has recently noted approximately one third of the real gross product originating in the service sector of u s private business economy is estimated using employment manhours or labor earnings such procedures systematically misstate the true growth of real output and thus systematically bias the estimated growth in total factor productivity the situation is even worse in the public sector in the u s national income and product accounts the output of general government is defined to be equal to labor input implying that the growth of total factor productivity exactly offsets the effect of nonlabor inputs a model is developed in this paper which allows the growth rate of public sector productivity to be estimated without an explicit measure of sectoral output in this model communities are regarded as generalized households and the goods and services provided by the community s government are interpreted as internally produced household goods this interpretation allows us to appropriate the analytical apparatus of the household production model and thereby permits us to estimate the key parameters of the model including a government total factor productivity parameter without first having to measure the output of the govern

empirical analysis of corn and soybean basis in canada the article examines the factors affecting the basis for corn and soybeans using several time series techniques to account for potential structural breaks seasonality residual serial correlation and structural breaks as well as potential endogeneity and nonstationarity the spatio temporal empirical framework is based on storage and trade theories which assume the relationship between nondelivery location s spot price and futures price of a storable commodity depends on opportunity cost of capital warehousing costs a convenience yield and shipping costs the interest rate effect is strong for both crops with shipping costs also affecting soybean basis and own inventory levels positively correlated with corn basis the effect of the wedge between the price of carrying physical grain and the maximum storage rate on basis is positive for both crops the empirical results which are robust to multiple estimators provide stronger evidence of a structural break for the soybean basis than for the corn basis

a cautious price adjustment mechanism chaotic behavior abstract it is well known that adjustment processes like tatonnement can show erratic dynamic behavior the prices can make big jumps and vary over a wide range a discrete tatonnement process in a simple two goods economy is studied with only one price adjusted it is shown that the interval in which the price varies can be restricted to a neighborhood of an equilibrium price with big jumps excluded if the relative price adjustment is restricted by a maximal rate of increase or decrease of the price within the interval any type of erratic dynamics remains possible

convenience yield without the convenience a spatial temporal interpretation of storage under backwardation a mathematical programming model of the wheat marketing system of western australia manifests a typical pattern of regionwide stocks held at a negative intertemporal spread measured at the port no stocks are held at a monetary loss in terms of local prices any apparent loss is an illusion from spatial aggregation of stocks and attribution of incentives at one locality to storers at all locations moreover as the premium for immediate delivery at the port rises stocks increase at relatively inaccessible inconvenient locations where prices are low allowing more to be shipped from locations more convenient to the port

slippage in the conservation reserve program or spurious correlation a rejoinder the conservation reserve program crp pays farmers about 2 billion per year to retire cropland under ten to fifteen year contracts recent research by wu found that slippage an unintended stimulus of new plantings offsets some of crp s environmental benefits wu does not account for the endogeneity of crp enrollments furthermore the data used by wu cannot be used to estimate slippage arising from a price feedback effect we replicate wu s findings demonstrate the possible presence of spurious correlation and construct new estimates with corrections for endogeneity and other econometric problems we find no convincing evidence of slippage

options uncertainty and sunk costs an empirical analysis of land use change abstract in a real option model of land conversion incorporating return uncertainty and sunk costs optimal conversion thresholds are significantly higher than those from expected net present value models not accounting for these factors empirical tests of conversion from agriculture to forest suggest that landowners value the option to convert when making conversion decisions higher uncertainty in returns to all potential uses and lower correlation between shocks to agricultural and forest returns decreases the likelihood of conversion estimates indicate a significant impact on conversion decisions with approximations of option values ranging from 7 to 81 of the expected value of the land asset

a robust rational route to randomness in a simple asset pricing model abstract we investigate asset pricing dynamics in an adaptive evolutionary asset pricing model with fundamentalists trend followers and a market maker agents can choose between a fundamentalist strategy at positive information cost or choose a trend following strategy for free price adjustment is proportional to the excess demand in the asset market agents asynchronously update their strategy according to realized net profits in the recent past as agents become more sensitive to differences in strategy performance the fundamental steady state becomes unstable and multiple steady states may arise as the traders sensitivity to differences in fitness increases a bifurcation route to chaos sets in due to homoclinic bifurcations of stable and unstable manifolds of the fundamental steady state

gender differences in marketing styles recent research has found that men trade stocks more frequently than women and receive a lower price as a result the behavioral finance literature attributes this greater trading activity to men s overconfidence women s lack of overconfidence and past agricultural economics research suggest the possibility that women may be better at marketing grain than men this article uses actual transactions of farmers marketing wheat and also finds that men trade more often than women women also sell two weeks later in the marketing year there is no direct effect of gender on price received but by storing longer women receive 1 4 cents bushel less than men on average in contrast to the arguments in previous research we argue that men s greater number of trades can be better explained by men enjoying trading rather than by overconfidence

implications of commodity price behavior for marketing strategies prices of agricultural commodities have systematic dynamic components and many agricultural economists have thought that forecasts of this behavior ought to aid marketing decisions thereby raising producers returns but if commodity markets are pricing efficient then noncompetitive profit opportunities should be quickly arbitraged away thus a debate exists about the magnitude of the likely benefits of various marketing strategies herein we address the question what does the literature about commodity price behavior contribute to our understanding of the expected outcomes from alternative marketing strategies our brief answer is as follows spot prices in u s commodity markets typically behave in a way that is consistent with efficient markets systematic behavior persists because of the costs of arbitrage hence price forecasts in the public domain cannot be used to produce returns which are consistently above the competitive norm although low cost strategies to manage price risk exist evaluating the evidence on these topics is not easy however because the price generating processes are complex sometimes prices seem to behave as if a market is inefficient advice based on analyses using short samples should be used with great caution the remainder of the article elaborates

understanding farmland price changes this paper develops a structural model of land prices which includes the multidimensional effects of inflation on capital erosion savings return erosion and real debt reduction as well as the effect of changes in the opportunity cost of capital the results show that inflation and changes in the real returns on capital are major explanatory factors in farmland price swings in addition to returns to farming additionally the effects of credit market constraints and expectations schemes are considered explicitly in the analytical model

land price volatility in a geographically dispersed market historical evidence and theory lead to a hypothesis that land price variation increases with distance to market this hypothesis is tested with county data from five cornbelt states during the period 1969 to 1987 when price changes were unusually large our data support the hypothesis in the 70s prices increased more in the western cornbelt than in the eastern cornbelt in the 80s the western cornbelt experienced the more precipitous price declines our hypothesis explains why great plains farmers have experienced greater financial problems during times of stress than have many other farmers

municipal capital maintenance and fiscal distress this paper formalizes and empirically tests the hypothesis that the deficient maintenance of public infrastructure is caused by fiscal distress the authors utilize a production decision framework in which public officials combine maintenance and new capital to produce a desired level of capital services the behavior implied in the fiscal distress hypothesis is treated as perverse deviations from the optimal production path the empirical findings from cross sectional expenditures data give support to the fiscal distress hypothesis copyright 1991 by mit press

feeding africa s cities the case of the supply chain of teff to addis ababa abstracturbanization is quickly increasing in africa raising important questions on how food value chains to cities function and what the implications of urban growth are for the local food trade and farm sector we study the rural urban value chain of teff in ethiopia by value its most important staple value chain relying on unique large scale surveys at different levels in this value chain we find in contrast to conventional wisdom that value chains are relatively short and that average farmers obtain a high share about 80 of the final consumer price in the major terminal market addis ababa we further find that producer prices decline in line with transportation costs the farther farmers live from the city that seasonal price movements are rather small and that average stock release by farmers is smooth over the year

inventory dynamics under transaction costs a conceptual model of storage behavior is developed optimal intertemporal pricing is derived to analyze the effects of transaction costs on storage andarbitrage pricing it is shown how transaction costs can rationalize the existence of an inverse carrying charge for inventory the model is applied to u s soybeans stocks for the period 1960 95 the empirical results suggest that transaction costs have a significant influence on storage behavior andintertemporal arbitrage pricing copyright 2000 oxford university press

aggregate local public sector investment and shocks norway 1946 1990 local public sector investment is determined in an environment of shifting economic conditions investments are investigated using an intertemporal decision model allowing for tests of forward looking behaviour and adjustments to expected and unexpected shocks the econometric analysis of the aggregate local public sector over the period 1946 1990 indicates that local and county governments are forward looking and have small adjustment costs to investment in a full investment demand model only unexpected changes of gross domestic product and unemployment are shown to be important in the short run the central government has arranged stable revenue growth of the local public sector but greater volatility in macroeconomic conditions has led to fluctuations in local public investment

stability and complex dynamics in a discrete tâtonnement model abstract in this paper we study the dynamics of discrete price adjustment processes we show that gross substitutability leads to a kind of stability of the process it guarantees that all prices converge to some bounded region that contains the unique equilibrium price the dynamics inside this region is by no means trivial we demonstrate that as the speed of adjustment increases the process undergoes several bifurcations and the dynamics may become quite complex our approach differs from other literature on t tonnement processes in that our systems are not necessarily one dimensional

a discrete and symmetric price adjustment process on the simplex abstract we study the t tonnement process in an exchange economy with three commodities and three agents we argue that for the multiplicative t tonnement process the simplex is a natural normalization rule we analyse the influence of symmetry in preferences and endowments on the dynamics of the t tonnement process depending on this symmetry there are different bifurcation routes to chaos in particular coexisting attractors may emerge when the symmetric equilibrium price vector becomes unstable this coexistence of attractors is robust in the sense that it also exists for close by asymmetric t tonnement processes

what causes commodity price backwardation a recently proposed explanation for futures price backwardation is examined an equilibrium model with spatial heterogeneity leads to the interpretation of backwardations as mismeasurement by the analyst however the model predicts that backwardations are more affected by the location of stocks than by their aggregate level empirical examination of the united states corn market fails to support this result

the working curve and commodity storage under backwardation there remains controversy over whether the empirical curve relating intertemporal commodity price spreads and stocks originally drawn by holbrook working in 1933 i e the working curve is a valid stylized fact in commodity markets the core of the controversy is the portion of the curve representing commodity stocks under backwardation in this article we analyze the original data used by working plus more disaggregated numbers we find that the working curve is indeed valid the diversity of stockholders and different stockholding motives most likely explain the empirical working curve relationship

marketing performance of oklahoma farmers relative to marketing most agricultural commodities the dominant academic paradigm is the efficient market hypothesis that suggests that little profits can be made by trying to time when to sell wheat the paradigm says that farmers will on average receive an average price a view that has been expounded at cooperative extension meetings and in farm press articles is that most farmers receive a below average market price for example at a recent farm bureau meeting the master of ceremonies made the statement producers tend to sell on the bottom third of the market also in a mid march 2001 issue of the progressive farmer d r g a barnaby from kansas state university was quoted as saying maybe that s why most farmers sell in the bottom third of the market batchelor p 25 1 the research question then is do farmers really sell in the bottom third of the market or is this just a clever marketing gimmick by market advisory services the idea of farmers selling in the bottom third of the market is not without theoretical foundation results from behavioral finance find that people have systematic psychological biases brorsen and anderson these biases could result in herding behavior in such a way that the majority could always be wrong a study by slusher based on a narrow survey of indiana corn farmers and conducted in 1986 is the only one that we know of that has addressed the issue of actual farmer perfor

statistical dynamics and economics abstract it is shown in this paper how complex economic dynamics can be characterized using the statistical or distributional theory of dynamical systems the basic concepts of the latter are summarized then applications to supply and demand adjustments in competitive markets aggregate business fluctuations and economic growth in the very long run are briefly reviewed

optimal storage and marketing over space and time borrowing from the theory of optimal resource extraction we develop the mechanism guiding efficient commodity storage and marketing over producing regions through the crop year optimal storage occurs at producing areas and time in storage varies directly with distance to market prices grow with interest rates in locations where storage is efficient but more slowly elsewhere which explains why market prices i e prices at the market grow more slowly than interest rates the model is empirically supported by examining storage in the corn belt rates of price growth at various points and quarterly grain marketings

a model of spatial arbitrage with transport capacity constraints and endogenous transport prices this article solves a high frequency model of price arbitrage incorporating storage and trade when the amount of trade is limited by transport capacity constraints in equilibrium there is considerable variation in transport costs because transport costs rise when the demand to ship goods exceeds the capacity limit this variation is necessary to attract shipping capacity into the industry in turn prices in different locations differ by a time varying amount thus while the law of one price holds it holds because of endogenous variation in transport costs

urban bias in price risk the geography of food price distributions in low income economies the geography of agricultural marketing has important implications for the stochastic distribution of agricultural commodity prices this article proposes that objective food price risk differs between rural and urban areas of infrastructure poor economies characterised by spatially concentrated patterns of foodgrains storage this difference implies an urban bias having adverse welfare effects for peasants who seasonally switch between net food seller and net food buyer positions empirical analysis of rice price data from madagascar suggests that price variability and skewness indeed differ between rural and urban areas in ways that adversely influence the relative welfare of rural peasants

spatial competition and geographic grain transportation demand on the mississippi and illinois rivers using a model of spatial competition between grain elevators i estimate a model of transportation demand for grain elevators located along the mississippi and illinois rivers this analysis uses a unique set of interview data collected by the tennessee valley authority tva both the theory and the data suggest that there are geographic patterns in barge demand elasticity patterns which are empirically uncovered using an endogenous switch point model these results are of central importance to policy makers as they call into question assumptions made by the models currently used for measuring the benefits of inland waterway improvements

public capital maintenance and congestion long run growth and fiscal policies abstract in this paper we study an endogenous growth model in which public maintenance expenditures affect the depreciation rate of public capital and the latter is subject to congestion we find that economies with low congestion in public infrastructure will require a threshold level of public capital maintenance for ongoing growth we also examine the fiscal implications of public capital maintenance policies and we find that the composition of public capital expenditures under congestion is a crucial determinant of optimal and growth maximizing fiscal policies the government can affect the return of public capital by re allocating public expenditures between new public investment and maintenance and hence avoid excessive taxation that is required under increasing congestion

multiple equilibria and chaos in a discrete tâtonnement process the purpose of this note is to demonstrate a sufficient condition for a discrete t tonnement process to lead to chaos in a general equilibrium model with multiple commodities the result indicates that as the speed of price adjustment increases the discrete t tonnement process is complex in a general equilibrium economy in which there are multiple equilibria

public capital and private productivity this paper uses three different approaches to investigate whether the declining provision of public capital is a major cause of declining labor productivity the juxtaposition of approaches removes

increasing returns and market efficiency in agricultural trade abstract using detailed trader surveys in benin madagascar and malawi this paper investigates the presence of increasing returns in agricultural trade after analyzing margins costs and value added we find little evidence of returns to scale motorized transport is found more cost effective for large loads on longer distances but transporters appear to pool quantities from multiple traders margin rates show little relationship with transaction size personal travel costs are a source of increasing returns but the effect is small consequently total marketing costs are nearly proportional to transaction size working and network capital are key determinants of value added constant returns to scale in all accumulable factors working capital labor and network capital cannot be rejected this implies that policies to restrict entry into agricultural trade are neither necessary nor useful governments should focus instead on technological and institutional innovations to upgrade agricultural markets