consumption and debt response to unanticipated income shocks evidence from a natural experiment in singapore abstract this paper uses a unique panel dataset of consumer financial transactions to study how consumers respond to an exogenous unanticipated income shock consumption rose significantly after th

the cyclicality of international public sector borrowing in developing countries does the lender matter abstract the paper shows that international government borrowing from multilateral development banks is countercyclical while international government borrowing from private sector lenders is procyclical the countercyclicality of multilateral development bank mdb lending is mostly driven by the behavior of the world bank borrowing from regional development banks tends to be acyclical the paper also shows that mdb lending to latin america and east asia is more countercyclical than mdb lending to other regions private sector lending is instead procyclical in all developing regions while the cyclicality of mdb lending does not depend on domestic or international conditions private lending becomes particularly procyclical in periods of limited global capital flows by focusing on both borrower and lender heterogeneity the paper shows that the cyclical properties of international government debt are mostly driven by credit supply shocks demand factors appear to be less important drivers of procyclical international government borrowing the focus on supply and demand factors is different from the traditional push and pull classification as push and pull factors could affect both the demand and the supply of international government debt

dynamic savings decisions in agricultural environments with incomplete markets we develop a methodology for examining savings behavior in rural areas of developing countries that explicitly incorporates the sequential decision process in agriculture the approach is used to examine the relative importance of alternative forms of savings in the presence and absence of formal financial intermediaries our results based on stage specific panel data from pakistan provide evidence that the presence of financial intermediaries importantly influences the use of formal savings and transfers for income smoothing we also find that there are significant biases in evaluations of the savings income relationship that are inattentive to the within year dynamics of agricultural production

ill health savings and portfolio choices in developing economies abstract this paper examines the effect of adult health on the savings and portfolio decisions of rural pakistani households it also tests whether such effects result because ill health affects income and the rates of return on specific assets by so doing it provides evidence on the sensitivity of savings to income changes and to interest rates i find that expectations of future ill health increase overall savings but reduce investments in productive assets thereby forging a link between health and poverty i also find that the number of males in a household condition the impact of the ill health of any given individual on savings outcomes

taxing food and beverages theory evidence and policy we developed a theoretical framework to examine the effect of a change in sales or excise tax on food and beverage demand after considering that consumers may have imperfect tax knowledge are sometimes inattentive to sales tax may not be informed of a sales tax change and pay no sales tax on eligible food or beverages if using food stamps we conducted simulations to assess how much the sales tax elasticity of demand should be adjusted downward from the price elasticity of demand and quantified the advantage of using an excise tax as an anti obesity policy copyright 2013 oxford university press

credit market constraints consumption smoothing and the accumulation of durable production assets in low income countries investments in bullocks in india in this paper we formulate and estimate a finite horizon structural dynamic model of agricultural investment behavior that incorporates the major features of low income agricultural environments income uncertainty constraints on borrowing and rental markets and the use of investment assets to generate income and smooth consumption the model is fit to longitudinal indian household data on farm profits bullock stocks and pump sets the estimated structural parameters are used to assess the effects on the life cycle accumulation of bullocks agricultural profits and welfare associated with complete markets and bullock liquidity and with second best policies that provide assured sources of income to farmers and weather insurance

estimating permanent income and wealth of the us farm households farm households are unique in the way they derive income when compared to nonfarm households farm operators and spouses have dual income sources from farm and off farm activities further farm households on an average possess higher wealth than nonfarm households this article estimates permanent income for the us farm households using data from a large national farm level survey the estimated income is then used to identify the determinants of wealth accumulation by the us farm households results confirm that permanent income is closely related to age of the operator education occupation farm size location and number of earners in the household along with age permanent income is a significant determinant of household wealth it was also found that the wealth income curve is nonlinear upward sloping and convex hausman s specification test indicates that variations in farm household wealth is better explained by estimated permanent income than observed total household income off farm income

the common pool dilemma of global public goods lessons from the world bank s net income and reserves the function of international organizations ios as suppliers of international or global public goods gpgs has received increasing attention in recent years but in a world with many claimants and limited resources gpgs are more likely to have common pool properties than be pure public goods the paper develops a joint products model of public goods supply by international organizations examining how specific institutional features of international organizations affect the supply of gpgs the sources and distribution of the world bank s net income the single largest source of discretionary funds available annually to an io are used as the lens to analyze the issue the paper examines the tension between control rights on net income which reside primarily with nonborrowing shareholders and the sources of net income which largely lie with minority borrowing shareholders the analysis suggests that while the joint product model of member country support for international organizations has much merit institutional features that were incorporated when these institutions were established sharply affect both the absolute magnitude and the distribution ratio of the benefit streams

ex ante and ex post labor supply response to risk in a low income area abstract this paper tests for ex ante and ex post labor supply responses to weather risk for rural indian farm households the analysis uses panel data on 2115 households spanning 13 states in rural india merged with a 22 year series of district level rainfall data ex ante households facing riskier distributions of rainfall are more likely to participate in the labor market ex post unexpectedly bad weather and low rainfall increase labor force participation

borrowing costs and the role of multilateral development banks evidence from cross border syndicated bank lending abstract cross border bank lending is a growing source of external finance in emerging and developing countries and could play a key role in infrastructure and development financing this paper looks at the role of multilateral development banks mdbs on the terms of syndicated loans focusing on loan pricing the results show that mdbs participation is associated with higher borrowing costs and longer maturities signaling a greater willingness by mdbs to finance risky projects which may not be financed by the private sector we also show that mdbs are more likely to lend to borrowers located in countries with high credit and financial risk overall our findings suggest that mdbs could play a role in easing access to credit for high risk borrowers

precautionary behavior migrant networks and household consumption decisions an empirical analysis using household panel data from rural china abstract we develop a test of precautionary behavior in the consumption decisions of rural agricultural households among surveyed households facing a median level of consumption risk 10 of savings can be attributed to a precautionary motive and this increases to 15 for households with consumption per capita below the poverty line we next use distant lags of local rainfall shocks uncorrelated with current consumption growth to identify the size of migrant networks outside the village and then present evidence that both poor and nonpoor households engage in less precautionary saving as the size of the village migrant network increases

testing theories of consumption behavior using information on aggregate shocks income seasonality and rainfall in rural india we develop an integrated framework for testing theories of consumption behavior by examining how agricultural households in rural india respond to anticipated and unanticipated seasonal income fluctuations using information on village level rainfall surprises we estimate idiosyncratic unanticipated income shocks by allowing weather risk to impact households differently depending on observable characteristics in applying our methodology to unique panel data on consumption debt and intrahousehold gift exchanges we address a number of shortcomings in previous tests of theories of consumption behavior yet we find no evidence against the hypothesis that households smooth idiosyncratic fluctuations in their income our approach also uncovers several interesting features of rural credit and insurance markets

the danish tax on saturated fat short run effects on consumption substitution patterns and consumer prices of fats abstract denmark introduced a tax on saturated fat in food products with effect from october 2011 the objective of this paper is to make an effect assessment of this tax for some of the product categories most significantly affected by the new tax namely fats such as butter butter blends margarine and oils this assessment is done by conducting an econometric analysis on weekly food purchase data from a large household panel dataset gfk panel services denmark spanning the period from january 2008 until july 2012 the econometric analysis suggest that the introduction of the tax on saturated fat in food products has had some effects on the market for the considered products in that the level of consumption of fats dropped by 10 15 furthermore the analysis points at shifts in demand from high price supermarkets towards low price discount stores at least for some types of oils and fats a shift that seems to have been utilised by discount chains to raise the prices of butter and margarine by more than the pure tax increase due to the relatively short data period with the tax being active interpretation of these findings from a long run perspective should be done with considerable care it is thus recommended to repeat and broaden the analysis at a later stage when data are available for a longer period after the introduction of the fat tax

the scope of imf conditionality international organizations are governed by two parallel sets of rules formal rules which embody consensual procedures and informal rules which allow exceptional access for powerful countries a new data set drawn from the imf s records of conditionality provides an opportunity to study the bargaining process within an important international organization and answer questions about the institution s autonomy i find evidence of u s influence which operates to constrain condition ality but only in important countries that are vulnerable enough to be willing to draw on their influence with the united states in ordinary countries under ordinary circumstances broad authority is delegated to the imf which adjusts conditionality to accommodate local circumstances and domestic political opposition the imf has refrained from exploiting the vulnerability of particular countries to maximize the scope of conditionality international organizations have become increasingly important actors in inter national politics they have proliferated have expanded in membership have acquired new legal enforcement powers and have extended their reach into the details of domestic political economy in their member states af ew including the international monetary fund imf or simply the fund command significant resources and wield considerable authority some critics have argued that these international organizations are sufficiently autonomous to create a democratic def icit at the international level as they pursue a vision of undemocratic liberal ism 1 other critics have argued that international organizations are nothing more than instruments in the hands of powerful states 2 these critiques of course cannot simultaneously be true and both run into difficulties the puzzle that the rogue agency view cannot explain is why the principals have chosen to delegate so much authority in principal agent terms this view posits that both screening and monitoring have failed the principals are unable to select agents with preferences similar to their own and are unable

anticipated development assistance temporary relief aid and consumption behaviour of low income countries much debate about the effectiveness of foreign aid to developing countries focuses on the assumption that aid flows mainly enhance current consumption rather than being channelled into investment this paper seeks to establish what proportion of foreign assistance is used to finance current consumption the principal hypothesis to be tested is that aid transfers include very heterogeneous components with different marginal propensity to raise consumption estimating the average marginal propensity to consume of all the components of aid as is commonly done may lead to erroneous results the flow of foreign aid from high to low income countries can be classified into two types the first includes income transfers of a relief nature such as emergency and distress relief including drought related food transfers medical and refugee relief and balance of payments crisis support these transfers are generally a temporary response to unanticipated events or shocks to the economy they can be perceived as an attempt by the donor community to help finance what is denoted in the permanent income theory as transitory consumption friedman i957 in addition they can be viewed as an attempt to maintain a subsistence level of consumption by absorbing the shocks to income entirely by changes in savings the low level of savings however and the constraints on foreign borrowing lead to dependency on foreign transfers and prevent domestic savings from being the residual that is almost all of

consumption and vulnerability among foragers and horticulturalists in the rainforest of honduras abstract it is often said that poor rural households in developing countries remain inadequately insured against shocks using panel data from tawahka amerindians in the honduran rainforest a horticultural foraging society we estimate the consumption smoothing ability and vulnerability to risks of 32 households in two villages with varying degrees of market openness the information was collected using cultural anthropology methods and key variables were estimated through direct observations and physical measures to reduce measurement errors results suggest that household consumption is directly affected by income shocks despite the practice of partial insurance and risk sharing within communities in a comparison between the villages we find evidence that households practice distinctly different consumption smoothing behaviors partly driven by their gap in economic development

saving and economic shocks in rural pakistan abstract this paper adapts the recent methodology of paxson to study saving rates in rural pakistan particular attention is paid to differences in marginal rates of financial and physical saving and how these vary across income groups and by direction of income shocks households exhibit more difficulty in smoothing consumption after successive shocks than with a single shock the study also observes marginal rates of saving out of international remittances and lump sum pensions unlike domestic remittances international remittances appear to be treated much as transitory income shocks

consumption and income seasonality in thailand many households in developing countries rely on seasonal agriculture for their incomes this paper investigates whether household consumption expenditure tracks income across seasons using data from thailand i contrast the seasonal consumption patterns of households with different seasonal income patterns and estimate the responsiveness of seasonal consumption to seasonal income i find little evidence that consumption tracks income over the course of the year the findings suggest that observed seasonal consumption patterns are the result of seasonal variations in preferences or prices common to all households rather than an inability of households to use savings behavior to smooth consumption

viewpoint can u s local soda taxes continue to spread abstract taxes to reduce the consumption of sugar sweetened beverages ssbs such as soda drinks have been endorsed by the world health organization and are now in place in france hungary and mexico and scheduled for portugal south africa and great britain such taxes have so far been impossible to enact in the united states at the state or federal level but since 2014 seven local jurisdictions have put them in place three necessary conditions for local political enactment emerge from this recent experience democratic party dominance external financial support for pro tax advocates and a political message appropriate to the process public health for ballot issues budget revenue for city council votes roughly 40 percent of americans live within local jurisdictions where the democratic party dominates so room exists for local ssb taxes to continue spreading

the economic and political determinants of imf and world bank lending in the middle east and north africa mena assumes both political and economic significance politically it is arguably the epicentre of world crisis chronically war prone and the site of the world s most protracted conflicts hinnebusch 2003 p 1 economically it owns the bulk of the world s oil reserves driving in particular the usa economic engine in light of the region s geopolitically and economically strategic position in the world economy it is clear that economic and political factors are inextricably linked when it comes to the manner in which the west particularly the usa responds to the region s needs

marriage the sharing rule and pocket money the case of south korea abstract using longitudinal data on private consumption from south korea this article examines the marital balance of power between spouses in a dynamic setting by allowing for unobserved heterogeneity at the household level and spouses time constant unobserved bargaining power i find that unobserved power plays a significant role in intrahousehold resource allocation the income pooling hypothesis is no longer rejected after accounting for unobserved power relative spousal earnings may be a good proxy for the long term balance of power to an extent that cross sectional variation in relative earnings across households reflects the pattern of spousal matching however within marriage changes in relative earnings do not induce any significant resource transfer between spouses the balance of bargaining power is stable within marriage

us politics and world bank ida lending this paper studies the role of us political factors in the allocation of world bank concessional lending where us political interests are proxied by voting similarity in the united nations general assembly on issues identified as important by the us department of state in contrast to previous studies we find that the us exerted a significant influence on ida lending during the period 1993 2000 we demonstrate that the influence was both statistically as well as economically significant finally we demonstrate that our result is robust with respect to the omission of the ida country performance rating index

soft drink prices sales body mass index and diabetes evidence from a panel of low middle and high income countries we take advantage of four different cross country datasets containing data on 78 countries for the period 1999 2014 in order to assess the relationship of carbonated soft drinks sales as well as their prices with body mass index bmi overweight obesity and diabetes using an ecological study design and multivariate regression longitudinal estimation approaches we find that carbonated soft drink sales were significantly positively related to bmi overweight and obesity but only in the low and lower middle income countries this finding was robust to a number of sensitivity and falsification checks in this sub sample an increase in per capita soft drink sales by 1 litre per year was related to an increase of bmi by about 0 009 kg m2 p 0 1 this is a small effect implying that halving annual consumption per capita in this group of countries would result in a drop of bmi by only about 0 03 kg m2 although soft drink prices were negatively related to weight related outcomes in the sample of higher middle income and high income countries this finding was not robust to falsification checks the results thus suggest that sales restrictions to steer consumers away from soft drinks could indeed have a beneficial health effects in poorer countries although the effect magnitude appears to be very small however given potential limitations of using ecological research design results from individual level studies would be required to further ascertain the role of soft drink sales and prices in obesity and diabetes

wealth weather risk and the composition and profitability of agricultural investments despite the growing evidence that farmers in low income environments are risk averse there has been little empirical evidence on the importance of risk in shaping the actual allocation of production resources among farmers differentiated by wealth the authors use panel data on investments in rural india to examine how the composition of productive and nonproductive asset holdings varies across farmers with different levels of total wealth and across farmers facing different degrees of weather risk income variability is a prominent feature of the experience of rural agents in low income countries the authors report evidence based on measures of rainfall variability that the agricultural investment portfolio behavior of farmers in such settings reflects risk aversion due evidently to limitations on consumption soothing mechanisms such as crop insurance or credit markets the authors results suggest that uninsured weather risk is a significant cause of lower efficiency and lower average incomes a one standard deviation decrease in weather risk measured by the standard deviation of the timing of the rainy season would raise average profits by up to 35 percent among farmers in the lowest wealth quartile moreover rainfall variability induces a more unequal distribution of average incomes for a given distribution of wealth wealthier farmers are willing to absorb significant risk without giving up profits to reduce production risk smaller farmers have to invest their limited wealth in ways that reduce their exposure to risk at the cost of lower profit rates the authors found that at high levels of rainfall variability differences in rates of profit per unit of agricultural assets were similar across classes of wealth but over the sample range of rainfall variability these rates of profit were always higher for the poorer farmers than for the wealthier ones suggesting that the disadvantages of small farmers in risk diffusion are more than offset by their labor cost advantage

buffer stock savings by portfolio adjustment evidence from rural india the empirical literature on household savings tends to treat savings simply as the residual of income minus consumption this article takes a unique approach to reconstruct the cash and asset balances using detailed household transaction data on farm households in rural india and generates monthly and seasonal icrisat panel data for the period 1976 1983 we have found that households irrespective of their landholding status cope with temporary shocks quite well by using crop inventory currency and capital assets rather than livestock as buffer assets the importance of portfolio adjustments in smoothing consumption is also confirmed by the use of a system of equations in which both portfolio and production decisions are made endogenous it is concluded that not only the level but also the diversification of household assets are important for buffering consumption as an extension we have explored the monthly icrisat panel data for the period 2009 2012 in the same villages and have found a similar pattern in household portfolio responses to income shocks

aid policies and growth the authors of this paper use a new database on foreign aid to examine the relationships among foreign aid economic policies and growth of per capita gdp in panel growth regressions for 56 developing countries and 6 four year periods 1970 93 they find that the policies that have a great effect on growth are those related to fiscal surplus inflation and trade openness they construct an index for those three policies and have that index interact with foreign aid they have instruments for both aid and aid interacting with policies they find that aid has a positive impact on growth in developing countries with good fiscal monetary and trade policies in the presence of poor policies aid has no positive effect on growth this result is robust in a variety of specifications which include or exclude middle income countries include or exclude outliers and treat policies as exogenous or endogenous they examine the determinants of policy and find no evidence that aid has systematically affected policies either for good or for ill they estimate an aid allocation equation and show that any tendency for aid to reward good policies has been overwhelmed by donors pursuit of their own strategic interests in a counterfactual they reallocate aid reduce the role of donor interests and increasing the importance of policy such a reallocation would have a large positive effect on developing countries growth rates

the impact of a soda tax on prices evidence from french micro data abstractbased on an original data set of more than 500 000 non alcoholic beverage price records we evaluate the impact on consumer prices of the soda tax an excise on drinks with added sugar or sweetener introduced in france in january 2012 we adopt a difference in differences approach and find that the tax was gradually passed through to the prices of the taxed beverages after 6 months of its introduction it was fully shifted to soda prices and almost fully shifted to the prices of fruit drinks while the pass through for flavoured waters was incomplete we also find that the pass through was heterogeneous across brands and retail groups

barriers to political analysis in aid bureaucracies from principle to practice in dfid and the world bank summary politics has become a central concern in development discourse and yet the use of political analysis as a means for greater aid effectiveness remains limited and contested within development agencies this article uses qualitative data from two governance leaders the united kingdom department for international development and the world bank to analyze the administrative hurdles facing the institutionalization of political analysis in aid bureaucracies we find that programing management and training practices across headquarters and country offices remain largely untouched by a political analysis agenda which suffers from its identification with a small cross national network of governance professionals

soda wars the effect of a soda tax election on university beverage sales author s taylor rlc kaplan s villas boas sb jung k abstract 2019 western economic association international we examine how soda sales changed due to the campaign attention and election outcome of a local excise tax on sugar sweetened beverages using panel data of beverage sales from university retailers in berkeley california we estimate that soda purchases relative to control beverages significantly dropped immediately after the election months before the tax was implemented in the city of berkeley or on campus supplemental scanner data from off campus retailers reveal this result is not unique to the university setting our findings suggest soda tax media coverage and election outcomes can have larger effects on purchasing behavior than the tax itself jel d12 h20 c23 i38 q18

do farmers choose to be inefficient evidence from bicol abstract farming households that differ in their ability or willingness to take on risks are likely to allocate resources and effort among income producing activities differently with consequences for productivity in this paper we measure voluntary and involuntary departures from efficiency for rice producing households in the bicol region of the philippines we take advantage of a panel of observations on households from 1978 1983 and 1994 available monthly weather data and survey information on planting times allows us to create household specific measures of weather shocks which we use in our analysis we find evidence that diversification and input choices do affect efficiency outcomes among farmers although these effects are not dominant accumulated wealth past decisions to invest favorable market conditions and propitious weather are also important determinants of efficiency outcomes among bicol rice farmers our findings suggest that the costs of incomplete formal and informal insurance markets are higher for poorer farmers

the high politics of imf lending analysts have long suspected that politics affects the lending patterns of the international monetary fund imf but none have adequately specified or systematically tested competing explanations this paper develops a political explanation of imf lending and tests it statistically on the developing countries between 1985 and 1994 it finds that political realignment toward the united states the largest power in the imf increases a country s probability of receiving an imf loan a country s static political alignment position has no significant impact during this period suggesting that these processes are best modeled dynamically an analysis of two subsamples rejects the hypothesis that the imf has become less politicized since the end of the cold war and suggests that the influence of politics has actually increased since 1990 the behavior of multilateral organizations is still driven by the political interests of their more powerful member states

always vote for principle though you may vote alone explaining united states political support for multilateral development loans summary what motivates the u s when casting votes and to what degree does its formal influence matter in final outcomes in multilateral development banks we first assess the formal influence of the u s on final decisions and find that 64 of projects lacking u s support were nevertheless approved suggesting u s influence is not as strong as previously thought we then test several hypotheses explaining how the u s votes on projects in mdbs we find recipient need is strongly related to u s support and some evidence for both economic and political factors such as trade relations and human rights

the effects of a fat tax on french households purchases a nutritional approach this article assesses the effects of a fat tax on the nutrients purchased by french households across different income groups this is done by making a preliminary estimation of price elasticities using a complete demand system on household scanner data and by calculating nutrient elasticities using estimated price elasticities we find that a fat tax has small and ambiguous effects on nutrients purchased by french households and a slight effect on body weight in the short run with a greater effect in the long run such a tax generates substantial tax revenue but is highly regressive

demand elasticities for fresh fruit at the retail level the obesity epidemic in the us and elsewhere has re doubled efforts to understand determinants of the quality of consumers diets part of the discussion has centered on the potential of fat taxes and or the subsidization of the purchase of fresh fruits and vegetables to coax consumers to better diets whether this discussion has merit or not fundamental to the debate are the demand elasticities of the commodities involved this study employs weekly data from several retail stores on fruit prices and sales to estimate elasticities of individual fruits estimates show consumers are more responsive to price than has been found previously

long lasting income shocks and adaptations evidence from coral bleaching in indonesia abstract this paper explores how people adapt to climate shocks specifically coral bleaching that have long lasting impacts on income caused mainly by abnormally high sea surface temperature coral bleaching has significant effects on marine resources using panel data from indonesia and exogenous variations in bleaching i observe that fishery households in affected areas experienced a decrease in income relative to other households although consumption expenditures did not decline significantly in response to these income shocks these households reduced their protein consumption in the short and long runs regarding labor market outcomes the affected households tended to substantially increase their labor supply and switch industries only in the long run

effects of microcredit and other loans on female empowerment in bangladesh the borrower s gender influences intra household resource allocation this article examines microcredit s effectiveness in empowering women borrowers in rural bangladesh it does so by examining how gender specific borrowing activities influence household expenditures which are either specifically of interest to men or women and by examining the effects of all loans rather than only those provided by microcredit organizations the article uses a quasi experimental design to identify the effects of borrowing by men and women by using an original combination of panel data and instrumental variables on subsamples of the surveyed population it finds that the borrower s gender affects how households allocate their resources to different expenditure items and assets that are valued differently by men and women in all the findings suggest that providing greater credit access to women may improve their household bargaining positions

viewpoint soda taxes four questions economists need to address abstract the popularity of soda taxes as a public health policy has grown rapidly in the last few years while the evidence that the tax works in reducing the purchases of soda is emerging there are a number of questions that are yet to be answered before the broader effectiveness of this measure can be determined beyond health effects there is more specifically a need to better understand the economic mechanisms of change redistributive effects as well as causal and spillover effects in food systems and economy more broadly

using weather variability to estimate the response of savings to transitory income in thailand this paper measures the extent to which farmers are able to use savings and dissavings to smooth consumption in response to unexpected shocks to income time series information on regional rainfall is used to construct estimates of transitory income due to rainfall shocks the relationship between these measures of transitory income and savings indicates that farm households save a significantly higher fraction of transitory income than nontransitory income jel d91 016 the incomes of farm households in developing countries are notorious for being both low and uncertain policies that increase the incomes of farmers may well be different

viewpoint on the generalizability of lab behaviour to the field abstract we can think of no question more fundamental to experimental economics than understanding whether and under what circumstances laboratory results generalize to naturally occurring environments in this paper we extend levitt and list 2006 to the class of games in which financial payoffs and doing the right thing are not necessarily in conflict we argue that behaviour is crucially linked to not only the preferences of people but also the properties of the situation by doing so we are able to provide a road map of the psychological and economic properties of people and situations that might interfere with generalizability of laboratory result from a broad class of games

the political economy of conditionality an empirical analysis of world bank loan disbursements abstract traditional aid conditionality has been attacked as ineffective in part because aid agencies notably the world bank often fail to enforce conditions this pattern undermines the credibility of conditionality weakening incentives to implement policy reforms the standard critique attributes this time inconsistency to bureaucratic factors within the aid agency such as pressure to lend defensive lending or short sighted altruism pressure from powerful donors provides another potential explanation for lax enforcement this paper presents an empirical analysis of the political economy of conditionality in international organizations using the case of the world bank and the united states the analysis examines panel data on world bank disbursements to 97 countries receiving structural adjustment loans between 1984 and 2005 using un voting as an indicator of alignment with the u s the paper presents evidence that world bank structural adjustment loan disbursements are less dependent on macroeconomic performance in countries aligned with the united states

safety nets gap filling and forests a global comparative perspective summary in the forest livelihoods literature forests are widely perceived to provide both common safety nets to shocks and resources for seasonal gap filling we use a large global comparative dataset to test these responses we find households rank forest extraction responses to shocks lower than most common alternatives for seasonal gap filling forest extraction also has limited importance the minority of households using forests for coping is asset poor and lives in villages specialized on forests in particular timber extraction overall forest resources may be less important as a buffer between agricultural harvests and in times of unforeseen hardship than has been found in many case studies 2014 published by elsevier ltd

who pays cigarette taxes the impact of consumer price search abstract we conduct an empirical study of the impact of consumer price search on the shifting of cigarette excise taxes to consumer prices we use novel data on the prices that smokers report paying and document substantial price dispersion we find that cigarette taxes are shifted at lower rates to carton buyers and especially smokers who buy cartons of cigarettes in a state other than their state of residence we also find evidence that taxes are shifted at somewhat lower rates to the prices paid by heavier smokers and at somewhat higher rates to the prices paid by smokers of light cigarettes

savings behaviour in low income countries the empirical literature on savings in low income countries has exploited some remarkable data sets to shed new light on savings behaviour in the poor agricultural households that make up the majority of the population in such countries a number of conclusions have emerged i the degree of consumption smoothing over seasons within the year and across years in response to very large income fluctuations is higher than was supposed ii the lack of complete insurance and credit markets however is manifested in asset stocks and asset compositions among farmers especially small farmers that are inefficient iii the combination of low and volatile incomes is an important cause of inefficiency and income inequality iv the proximity of formal financial institutions increases financial savings and crowds out informal insurance arrangements thus in principle better facilitating financial intermediation and iv simple life cycle models of savings do not appear to explain long term savings in low income settings copyright 2001 oxford university press

the invisible hand financial pressures and organisational convergence in multilateral development banks abstractthis paper investigates how the unique financial model of multilateral development banks dependent largely on issuing bonds in private capital markets to raise lending resources came about in the early history of three different mdbs and how this in turn shaped their operational characteristics historical research demonstrates that the world bank inter american development bank iadb and andean development corporation caf converged on organisational and operational arrangements very different to what their founders had intended and much closer to one another as a direct result of the need to secure sufficient resources to function as viable development lenders the findings indicate that in the absence of governments willing or able to provide significant financing out of their budgets mdbs tend to converge towards a single organisational model in order to maintain access to international capital markets all three mdbs examined here modified their lending and financial policies in un

the importance of the savings device in precautionary savings empirical evidence from rural bangladesh we test if precautionary behavior in the consumption decisions of rural households differs across the forms of savings using monthly panel data from bangladesh we find that on average the savings device does not matter but that the effect of income on savings indeed depends on the savings device precautionary savings in the form of staple grain are relatively constant across income quartiles while nongrain precautionary savings vary across income quartiles previous studies which treat these two types of savings devices as fungible misdiagnose the reasons for and by extension the market failures behind a large percentage of the precautionary savings held by rural households

designing a tax to discourage unhealthy food and beverage purchases the case of chile the global shift towards diets high in sugar sweetened beverages ssbs and energy dense ultra processed foods is linked to higher prevalence of obesity diabetes and most other noncommunicable diseases ncds causing significant health costs chile has the highest ssb consumption in the world very high junk food intake and very rapid increases in these poor components of the diet plus obesity prevalence this study s purpose is to compare the effect of different tax schemes for ssbs and ultra processed foods on nutrient availability utilizing price elasticities which are estimated from a quadratic almost ideal demand system model using the 2011 2012 income and expenditure survey we take into account the high proportion of households not purchasing various food and beverage groups censored nature of data the food groups considered were sweets and desserts salty snacks and chips meat products and fats fruits vegetables and seafood cereals and cereal products ssb ready to drink ssb from concentrate plain water coffee and tea and milk which together represent 90 of food expenditures the simulated taxes were 1 40 price tax on ssbs 22 above the current tax level 2 a 5 cents per gram of sugar tax on products with added sugar and 3 30 price tax on all foods 27 above current tax levels and beverages 12 above the current tax level exceeding thresholds on sodium saturated fat and added sugar and for which marketing is restricted based on a chilean law effective june 16 2016 unhealthy foods are price elastic 1 99 for salty snacks and chips 1 06 for ssbs ready to drink and 1 27 for ssbs from concentrate meaning that the change in consumption is proportionally larger with respect to a change in price results are robust to different model specification and consistent among different socioeconomic sub populations overall the tax on marketing controlled foods and beverages is associated with the largest reduction in household purchases of sodium added sugar saturated fat and calorie purchases chile is unique in currently having instituted a small current ssb tax as well as marketing controls and front of package labeling of unhealthy foods and beverages the design of a larger more comprehensive tax to enhance the overall effect of these policies on healthier diets is a next critical step this study shows that a large tax on the same foods and beverages already delineated as unhealthy by the marketing controls and front of pack labeling should prove to be more effective for promoting a healthier diet

global horse trading imf loans for votes in the united nations security council we investigate whether temporary members of the united nations security council receive favorable treatment from the international monetary fund imf using panel data for 197 countries over the period from 1951 to 2004 our results indicate a robust positive relationship between temporary security council membership and participation in imf programs even after accounting for economic political and country specific factors there is also evidence that security council membership reduces the number of conditions included in imf programs imf loans seem to be a mechanism by which the major shareholders of the fund can win favor with voting members of the security council

saving in developing countries theory and review in the literature on economic development much of the interest in saving has been focused on the relation between saving and growth but saving is not only about accumulation it is about smoothing consumption in the face of volatile and unpredictable income and helping to ensure the living standards of poor people whose lives are difficult and uncertain this paper develops a model of households which cannot borrow but which accumulate assets as a buffer stock to protect consumption when incomes are low such households dissave as often as they save do not accumulate assets over the long term and have on average very small asset holdings but their consumption is markedly smoother than their income much of the evidence is as consistent with this view of saving as it is incosistent with standard views of smoothing over the life cycle and with explanations of the link between saving and growth in terms of life cycle saving behavior consumption smoothing is also a useful way of thinking about government policy where volatility in the world prices of taxed commodities can generate sharp fluctuations in government revenues as well as reallocations of revenue between the private and public sectors many important policy issues in developing countries hinge on issues of consumption and smoothing and research on these issues is currently likely to be more productive than work on the relation between saving and growth

determining the impact of food price and income changes on body weight we develop a theoretical model to identify conditions under which price and income changes are most likely to change weight although it is intuitive that raising the price of high calorie food will decrease consumption of such goods it is not clear that such an outcome will actually reduce weight our empirical analysis demonstrates a case where a tax on food away from home a food intake category blamed for much of the rise in obesity could lead to an increase in body weight a finding which emphasizes the need to employ economic modeling when developing public policy to reduce obesity

shopping for development multilateral lending shareholder composition and borrower preferences this paper proposes two theoretical considerations regarding multilateral development banks mdbs the first is that mdb activities are increasingly driven by the growing economic strength of many developing countries the second is that categorizing mdbs according to the balance of power among shareholders helps explain why countries might prefer one or another mdb we compare three different mdbs operating in latin america one dominated by nonborrowers world bank another controlled by borrowing countries andean development corporation caf and a third more evenly split between borrowers and nonborrowers inter american development bank iadb qualitative and statistical analysis suggests that demand factors play an important role in mdb lending

what do we learn about consumer demand patterns from micro data the aim of this paper is to assess the importance of using micro level data in the econometric analysis of consumer demand to do this we utilize a time series of repeated cross sections covering some 4 000 households in each of 15 years employing a number of different aggregation procedures we conclude that aggregate data alone are unlikely to produce reliable estimates of structural price and income coefficients however once certain aggregation factors as well as trend and seasonal components are included an aggregate model is not necessarily outperformed across all demand equations in terms of forecasting ability jel d12 c52 c31 the purpose of this paper is to develop a complete consumer demand system based on a time series of individual household data and to use it to measure the biases introduced into the study of consumer de mand behavior when aggregate data are used in place of the appropriate microeco nomic data we assess the suitability of ag gregate data through the impact on income and price elasticities and by evaluating the ability of both micro and aggregate based models to forecast aggregate consumer de mand the biases introduced by the use of aggregate data depend upon the way that household characteristics interact with in come and price effects and on departures of demand systems from linearity we explore the structure of microeconomic demand sys tems and the role of household characteris tics in the behavior of consumer demand both for the light this may shed on the pattern of future demands and for the im plications this behavior has for issues of aggregation consumer demand patterns typically found in micro data sets vary considerably across households with different household characteristics and with different levels of income we model this variability by making intercept and slope parameters in the budget share equations of our demand sys tem depend on household characteristics and by allowing for nonlinear total log expenditure terms in fact in theory consistent demand systems it is total ex penditure rather than disposable income that is allocated across goods we find that this general framework leads to a well specified data coherent demand system which is a quadratic extension of the popu lar almost ideal model of angus s deaton and john muellbauer 1980 the micro level estimates are shown to be sensitive to the treatment of endogeneity of total expen diture and to the specification of interaction terms with household characteristics in ad dition this specification is also shown to possess many attractive features for the evaluation of aggregate models

the effects of risk on education in indonesia abstract we study the effects of risk and uncertainty on education in indonesia households that face more uncertainty and that have limited or no access to formal insurance will have a higher motive for self insurance and this may have adverse consequences for investment in child education a key contribution of the article is to decompose risk into village and household level components and to estimate whether they have different effects on education we find no evidence of household risk affecting child education however there is evidence that village risk adversely affects investment in education

imperfect commitment altruism and the family evidence from transfer behavior in low income rural areas in this paper we examine empirically whether risk pooling is more advantageous among altruistic compared to selfish agents in a framework where individuals cannot make binding commitments in particular we incorporate altuism into a model of risk sharing under imperfect commitment and use simulation methods to establish tests of the roles of both altruism and commitment problems in determining the extent of insurance and the intertemporal movements in interhousehold transfers the tests are carried out using three panel data sets from two countries of rural south asia that provide detailed information on transfers and enable the measurement of income shocks the estimates provide strong support for the notion that imperfect commitment substantially constrains informal transfer arrangements whether kin based or not but also provide evidence that altruism plays an important role in ameliorating commitment constraints and thus in increasing the gains from income pooling

natural natural experiments in economics the recent literature exploiting natural events as natural experiment instruments is reviewed to assess to what extent it has advanced empirical knowledge a weakness of the studies that adopt this approach is that the necessary set of behavioral market and technological assumptions made by the authors in justifying their interpretations of the estimates is often absent the methodology and findings from twenty studies are summarized and simple economic models are used to elucidate the implicit assumptions made by the authors and to demonstrate the sensitivity of the interpretations of the findings to the relaxation of some of these assumptions

the impacts of inclusive and exclusive taxes on healthy eating an experimental study abstract based on a laboratory experiment conducted with 131 adults non students subjects we empirically examine the differential impacts of an inclusive and exclusive tax on changing consumers eating behavior we compare the caloric and nutrient content of the meals selected by the subjects using a difference in difference regression model to determine the efficacy of the policy treatments the results indicate that an inclusive tax has a significantly stronger effect on reducing the consumption of total calories calories from fat and the intake of carbohydrates cholesterol sugar and sodium compared with an exclusive tax