project based mechanisms for emissions reductions balancing trade offs with baselines project based mechanisms for emissions reductions credits like the clean development mechanism pose important challenges for policy design because of several inherent characteristics participation is voluntary so it will not occur without sufficient credits evaluating reductions requires assigning an emissions baseline for a counterfactual that cannot be measured some investments have both economic and environmental benefits and might occur anyway uncertainty surrounds both emissions and investment returns and parties to the project are likely to have more information than the certifying authority the certifying agent is limited in its ability to design a contract that would reveal investment intentions as a result rules for benchmarking emissions may be systematically biased to overallocate and they also risk creating inefficient investment incentives this paper evaluates in a situation with asymmetric information the efficacy of the main baseline rules currently under consideration historical emissions an average industry emissions standard and expected emissions

trading for the future signaling in permit markets abstract permit markets are celebrated as a policy instrument since they allow i firms to equalize marginal costs through trade and ii the regulator to distribute the burden in a politically desirable way these two concerns however may conflict in a dynamic setting anticipating the regulator s future desire to give more permits to firms that appear to need them firms purchase permits to signal their need this raises the price above marginal costs and the market becomes inefficient if the social cost of pollution is high and the government intervenes frequently in the market the distortions are greater than the gains from trade and non tradable permits are better the analysis helps to understand permit markets and how they should be designed

the interaction of foreign exchange and market power effects on german domestic prices this paper illustrates the importance of international influences on domestic markets a model is presented in which changes in a country s terms of trade pass through to industrial prices in varying degrees depending on import penetration and seller concentration empirical results suggest that the 8 4 percent decline in the real external value of the deutsche mark from 1977 to 1983 allowed upward movement of about 2 percent in domestic producer prices of traded goods relative to the gnp price deflator increased market concentration led to a reduced effect while increased import penetration led to some increase in the exchange rate passthrough standard industrial organization models stress the impact of market power and entry conditions on economic performance with particular interest in price effects at the industry level greater concentration is expected to lead to higher prices ceteris paribus while greater ease in entry or a larger competitive fringe implies lower prices the international economics literature indicates that in the absence of trade barriers transactions and transportation costs and market power foreign exchange rate changes will be fully passed through to import and export prices implying that domestic prices of traded goods for an appreciating currency will be adjusted downward by the full amount of the exchange rate change the dramatic changes in exchange rates since the early 1970s provided exporters with new opportunities to enter markets of nations that had a strong currency west germany has been regarded as one such country this paper investigates the effect of exchange rate movements on particular german industrial prices i test to see whether the prominence of imports

long run carbon emission implications of energy intensive infrastructure investments with a retrofit option abstract investments in long lived fossil fuel intensive infrastructure can have large effects on carbon emissions over a long future period we simulate a 2 period model of infrastructure investment with subsequent retrofit to purge its carbon emissions under uncertainty about climate and retrofit costs the energy intensity chosen upon investment depends on current and expected future energy and environmental costs and on future retrofit cost simulations of a simplified but realistic model indicate that energy consumption and carbon emissions can be highly excessive when future energy and climate costs are not considered at the time infrastructure investments are made and charged at globally suboptimal rates when operated often by more than 50 when energy costs are undervalued at this rate both ex ante and ex post good anticipated retrofit options reduce ex post energy costs but lead to ex ante choice of more energy intensive infrastructure which could more than fully offset the energy reducing effect of the retrofit these results are of particular importance for emerging economies with large current and anticipated energy related investments where long term climate policy goals may be seriously jeopardized by policy makers facing too low energy prices now and in the future

agrifood supply chain private sector standards and farmers health evidence from kenya this article evaluates the impact of adoption of european union eu private sector standards on farmers health in rural kenya the study utilizes cross sectional farm household level data collected in 2006 from a randomly selected sample of 439 small scale export farmers we estimate the casual impact by utilizing a two stage poisson regression model two stage standard treatment effect model as well as by regression based on propensity score to assess the robustness of the results using these techniques we demonstrate that the pesticide ascribed incidence of acute illness symptoms and the associated cost of illness significantly decrease with the adoption of standards ceteris paribus farmers who adopt standards experience 70 lesser incidence of acute illness and spent about 50 60 less on restoring their health than nonadopters although standards can potentially prevent resource poor smallholders from maintaining their position in lucrative export markets they can also result in positive changes in the health of those farmers who do adopt them as shown by these results this implies that if adopted on a large scale standards may reduce production externalities corroborating the view that they may serve as a catalyst to transform production systems in developing countries

an economic evaluation of the environmental benefits from pesticide reduction abstract previous studies on the environmental impacts of pesticide use have tended to focus either on measuring damages through changes in relative risks to various environmental categories or examining the trade off between pesticide use levels and abatement costs this study uses the physical risk assessment approach combined with contingent valuation survey results on consumers willingness to reduce pesticide risk the reduction in external costs associated with the changes in pesticide use in ontario agriculture between 1983 and 1998 is us 188 per household the environmental benefits are largely due to the reduction in the level of high and moderate risk pesticides

a simulation model of the u s export enhancement program for wheat nash bargaining game models representing negotiations of export enhancement program eep sales are combined with a quarterly spatial price equilibrium model representing non eep world wheat trade to simulate the eep s impact in late 1985 and early 1986 the benefits of the eep in terms of increased u s export revenues adjusted for subsidy costs are estimated to be less than one percent of total u s revenues for the first quarter of 1986 model simulations also show a lowering of the ccc loan rate to have a much greater potential for increasing u s wheat exports than the eep as operated

endogenous price policies and international wheat prices vanzetti and kennedy s herein vk comment on our earlier paper sarris and freebairn gives us the opportunity first to clarify the differences in the models to present a generalization of the analysis that includes their results as well as ours as special cases and then to point out some salient features of our model that seem to have been unnoticed by them consider our model of a homogenous commodity produced consumed and traded by n countries which are characterized by the following linear demand and supply curves notation follows vk except that we maintain the additive random variables and hence keep the time subscript

the impact of bt cotton on poor households in rural india the impact of genetically modified gm crops on the poor in developing countries is still the subject of controversy while previous studies have examined direct productivity effects of bacillus thuringiensis bt cotton and other gm crops little is known about wider socioeconomic outcomes we use a microeconomic modelling approach and comprehensive survey data from india to analyse welfare and distribution effects in a typical village economy bt cotton adoption increases returns to labour especially for hired female workers likewise aggregate household incomes rise including for poor and vulnerable farmers hence bt cotton contributes to poverty reduction and rural development

rain agriculture and tariffs this paper examines whether and how rainfall shocks affect tariff setting in the agricultural sector in a model of strategic trade policy the authors show that the impact of a negative rainfall shock on optimal import tariffs is generally ambiguous depending on the weight placed by the domestic policy maker on tariff revenue profits and the consumer surplus the more weight placed on domestic profits the more likely it is that the policy maker will respond to a rainfall shortage by reducing import tariffs these findings are robust to alternative assumptions about market structure and the timing of the game using detailed panel data on applied tariffs and rainfall for 70 nations the authors find robust evidence that rainfall shortages generally induce policy makers to set lower tariffs on agricultural imports

oligopolistic behavior by public agencies in international trade the world wheat market a model of the world wheat market is presented which treats public policies as endogenous the oligopolistic nature of international wheat trade is captured by assuming policy makers form conjectures on the slope of the excess demand function they face and use that information to determine domestic and trade policies the policies reflect differing influences of political interest groups a u s crop shortfall scenario illustrates the different results with endogenous policies compared to the traditional model

impact of the us ec price war on major wheat exporters shares of the chinese market abstract china is both the world s largest producer and consumer of wheat in an attempt to gain a larger slice of the important chinese market both the european community and the united states have offered china subsidised wheat in addition other exporters have offered attractive credit arrangements to china the objective of this paper is to measure the overall impact of these policies on each exporter s share of the chinese market to that end an improved version of the constant market shares model is applied to data on chinese wheat imports in the 1980 s the results indicate that the united states has been outperforming the other exporters since subsidised us wheat sales were authorised for china in 1987 the implications of the analysis for the smaller exporters and international wheat trade are discussed

price discrimination by u s and german exporters the insensitivity of the u s trade balance to the sharp depreciation of the dollar in the past three years has revived interest in the relationship between exchange rates and the trade balance a central issue in most analyses of the relation between the current account and the exchange rate concerns the price adjustment process the simple integrated competitive market model predicts that local currency prices should change in proportion to the nominal exchange rate for a country too small to influence world prices the relationship between local currency import prices and exchange rates has been referred to as the pass through relationship in the empirical literature in international economics if the proportional relationship between import prices and exchange rates holds pass through is said to be complete accounts of recent u s experience cite the failure of dollar prices of imported goods to rise in proportion to exchange rates i e incomplete pass through as an important factor in explaining the persistence of the trade deficit unfortunately observations on pass through alone provide limited insight into the behavior of markets since incomplete pass through is consistent with at least two fundamentally different paradigms one is the standard competitive model of trade in which the law of one price holds but exchange rate fluctuations are associated with large changes in import demand due to other factors for example if dollar appreciation is correlated with increases in world demand and industry marginal cost is increasing then pass through will be less than complete the other is an imperfectly competitive model in which exporters are capable of price discriminating across destination markets a phenomenon paul krugman 1987 has labeled pricing to market in this model incomplete pass through is typically associated with fluctuations in the markup of price over marginal cost on exports 2 these fluctuations in markups are believed to be countryspecific they do not reflect the behavior of prices to other export destinations both models are plausible explanations of recent u s experience unfortunately it is impossible to distinguish between these competing models using only information on import prices and exchange rates for a single country in order to distinguish between the competing models an empirical analysis of goods prices and exchange rates must be capable of measuring either marginal cost or the markup over marginal cost either of these tasks poses formidable empirical problems much of the empirical literature in industrial organization has been concerned with precisely these issues since markups are an important measure of the competitiveness of industries

on the design of optimal grandfathering schemes for emission allowances to meet its commitment under the kyoto protocol the eu plans to implement an emissions trading system whith grandfathering of allowances besides having distributional impacts the choice of the grandfathering scheme may affect efficiency if firms anticipate how future allocations depend on upcoming decisions in this paper we determine central design rules for optimal grandfathering within a simple two period model we find that for small open trading systems where allowance prices are exogenous first best second period grandfathering schemes must not depend on firm specific decisions in the first period second best schemes correspond to a ramsey rule of optimal tax differentiation and are generally based on both previous emissions and output however ofr closed emissions trading systems i e endogeneous allowance prices firstand second best rules coincide and must not depend on previous output levels they consist of an assignment proportional to the emissions in the first period plus a term which does not depend on firm specific decisions in either of the two periods

is there really a green paradox abstract in the absence of a co2 tax the anticipation of a cheaper renewable backstop increases current emissions of co2 since the date at which renewables are phased in is brought forward and more generally future emissions of co2 will decrease the effect on global warming is unclear green welfare falls if the backstop is relatively expensive and full exhaustion of fossil fuels is optimal but may increase if the backstop is sufficiently cheap relative to the cost of extracting the last drop of fossil fuels plus marginal global warming damages as then it is attractive to leave more fossil fuels unexploited and thus limit co2 emissions we establish these results by analyzing depletion of non renewable fossil fuels followed by a switch to a clean renewable backstop paying attention to timing of the switch and the amount of fossil fuels remaining unexploited we also discuss the potential for limit pricing when the non renewable resource is owned by a monopolist finally we show that if backstops are already used and more backstops become economically viable as the price of fossil fuels rises a lower cost of the backstop will either postpone fossil fuel exhaustion or leave more fossil fuel in situ thus boosting green welfare however if a market economy does not internalize global warming externalities and renewables have not kicked in yet full exhaustion of fossil fuel will occur in finite time and a backstop subsidy always curbs green welfare

emissions trading with updated allocation effects on entry exit and distribution allocation of emissions allowances may have significant distributional and efficiency effects it is well known that cost efficiency may be achieved if allowances are auctioned or distributed in a lump sum manner e g based on emissions levels before the start of the system grandfathering bohringer and lange eur econ rev 49 2041 2055 2005 show that a cost effective outcome can also be achieved if the base year for allocation is continually updated updating given that banking and borrowing are prohibited in this paper we examine whether updating alters the entry and exit conditions for firms compared to grandfathering and how it affects profits for new and existing firms we find that the two schemes function surprisingly similar first the incentives to entry and exit are identical second the total value of free quotas to existing firms based on emissions before the system starts is also identical without any auctioning with updating initial claims for free allowances have a shorter lifetime compared to grandfathering but quota prices are higher as firms anticipate the effect of current emissions on future claims to free allowances the two effects exactly cancel each other out if there is some combination of auction and free allocation the total value of free quotas will always be highest under grandfathering if the auction rate is the same entry and exit incentives are still equal

the additionality problem with offsets optimal contracts for carbon sequestration in forests abstract carbon offsets are a frequently discussed tool for reducing the costs of an emissions reduction policy however offsets have a basic problem stemming from asymmetric information sellers of offsets have private information about their opportunity costs leading to concerns about whether offsets are additional non additional offsets can undermine a cap and trade program or if the government purchases them directly result in enormous government expenditures we analyze contracts for carbon sequestration in forests that mitigate the asymmetric information problem landowners are offered a menu of two part contracts that induces them to reveal their type under this scheme the government is able to identify ex post how much additional forest each landowner contributes and minimize ex ante its expenditures on carbon sequestration to explore the performance of the contracting scheme we conduct a national scale simulation using an econometric model of land use change the results indicate that for an increase in forest area of 61 million acres government expenditures are 5 3 billion lower under the contracting approach compared to a uniform subsidy offered to all landowners this compares to an increase in private opportunity costs of just 110 million dollars under the contracts thus the contracting scheme is preferable from society s perspective

using choice experiments to estimate consumer valuation the role of experimental design and attribute information loads with fixed dimensionality of choice experiments ces previous simulation results show that d optimal design with correct a priori information generates more accurate valuation in the absence of a priori information random designs and designs incorporate attribute interactions result in more precise valuation estimates in this article monte carlo simulations demonstrate that the performances of different design strategies are affected by attribute information loads in ces consumer valuation estimates in simulation settings vary with the number of attributes

valuing environmental and health risk in agriculture a choice experiment approach to pesticides in italy abstract the widespread use of pesticides in agriculture shows a complex ramification of multiple negative externalities ranging from food safety related effects to the deterioration of farmland ecosystems recent research has demonstrated that the assessment of the economic implications of such negative processes is fraught with many uncertainties this paper presents the results of an empirical study recently conducted in northern italy aimed at estimating the economic value of reducing the wide ranging impacts of pesticide use by deploying a choice experiment approach the experimental design provides a meaningful tool to assign monetary values to the negative environmental effects associated with agrochemicals use in this connection the paper addresses in particular the reduction of farmland biodiversity groundwater contamination and harm to human health the resulting estimates confirm that on average respondents demonstrate a substantial willingness to pay a premium for agricultural goods in particular foodstuffs produced in environmentally benign ways

perceptions versus objective measures of environmental quality in combined revealed and stated preference models of environmental valuation abstract this study examines perceptions and objective attribute measures in discrete choice models of recreation site choice behavior these forms of attribute measurement are examined in individual and combined revealed preference stated preference models our results suggest that the model based on perceptions slightly outperforms the models based on objective attribute measures however issues such as the definition of the choice set and the measurement of welfare present significant challenges when using perceptions data

scale and transfers in international emissions offset programs abstract voluntary emissions offset programs between developing and industrialized countries suffer from adverse selection because participants will self select into the program in contrast pure subsidies for mitigation lead to full participation and hence efficiency but require large financial transfers which make them unattractive to industrialized countries we present a simple model to demonstrate the impact of three policy options on the performance of offset programs 1 baseline scale increases 2 offset discounting and 3 setting stringent baselines with baseline scale increases entire political jurisdictions such as regions or nations are assigned a single aggregate baseline and must choose whether to participate as one entity we find that increasing scale both improves efficiency and reduces transfers from offset buyers to sellers offset discounting means paying less than the value of abatement and can be paired with trading ratios between offsets and allowances in a cap and trade system we show that discounting is inefficient but can make offsets more attractive to industrialized countries setting stringent baselines also involves a tradeoff between efficiency and transfers we finally show that pareto efficient policies that are individually rational for buyers and sellers entail some combination of discounting and or stringent baselines offset policies are never first best but can be efficiency improving especially with increased scale

potential impacts of bt eggplant on economic surplus and farmers health in india in this article the potential impacts of bt eggplant technology in indian agriculture are analyzed several proprietary bt hybrids are likely to be commercialized in the near future based on field trial data it is shown that the technology can significantly reduce insecticide applications and increase effective yields comprehensive farm survey data are used to project farm level effects and future adoption rates simulations show that the aggregate economic surplus gains of bt hybrids could be around us 108 million per year consumers will capture a large share of these gains but farmers and the innovating company will benefit too as the company has also shared its technology with the public sector bt open pollinated varieties might become available with a certain time lag this would make the technology more accessible especially for resource poor farmers entailing further improvements in welfare and distribution effects the wider implications of the private public technology transfer are discussed furthermore the potential benefits for farmers health resulting from reduced insecticide applications are examined using an econometric model and a cost of illness approach these benefits are worth an additional 3 4 million per year yet they constitute only a small fraction of the technology s environmental and health externalities more research is needed for comprehensive impact analysis

incentives and prices in an emissions trading scheme with updating abstract emissions trading schemes where allocations are based on updated baseline emissions give firms less incentive to reduce emissions for a given quota or allowance price nevertheless according to bohringer and lange on the design of optimal grandfathering schemes for emission allowances europ econ rev 49 2005 2041 2055 such allocation schemes are cost effective if the system is closed and allocation rules are identical across firms in this paper we show that the cost effective solution may be infeasible if marginal abatement costs grow too fast moreover if a price cap or banking borrowing is introduced the abatement profile is no longer the same as in the case with an auction or lump sum allocation in addition we show that with allocation based on updated emissions the quota price will always exceed marginal abatement costs possibly misguiding policy makers and investors about abatement costs numerical simulations indicate that the quota price most likely will be several times higher than marginal abatement costs unless a significant share of allowances is auctioned

imperfect competition and exchange rate pass through in the food processing sector imperfect competition has become an important dimension of international trade theory helpman and krugman product differentiation and economies of scale are explicitly incorporated in the new trade theory policy prescriptions following from these models hinge critically on underlying assumptions particularly the form of strategic firm behavior competitive cournot or bertrand unfortunately these models do not lend themselves easily to empirical testing also little empirical information exists on the strategic behavior of firms in international markets thus various models and tests on different aspects of imperfect competition in trade have been proposed and implemented one form of imperfect competition in international trade that has received attention re

mitigation incentives with climate finance and treaty options abstract future greenhouse gas ghg mitigation action of current non climate policy np countries is considered to take two alternative forms 1 climate finance payments received in return for future reductions in its ghg emissions below a defined baseline and 2 join a climate treaty whereby the required emissions reductions are formally binding it is assumed that baselines defining climate finance payments and required emissions reductions under a treaty depend positively on current emissions it is then shown that making such future options available reduces current ghg mitigation in np countries leading to higher emissions in the short run this effect is stronger when future climate finance payments are higher the required relative emissions reductions under a treaty are greater when commitments under a treaty are longer lasting and mitigation targets depend more on current emissions such short run increases in emissions can sometimes more than fully eliminate the effect of the subsequent policy when climate finance and treaties are both future alternatives more generous climate finance can make it harder and more expensive to induce the country to join a climate treaty

the competitive structure of u s agricultural exports the competitive structure of u s agricultural exports is examined using a model of exporter behavior based on pricing decisions across destination markets market power is revealed in the adjustment patterns of export prices in response to exchange rate movements the results reject the hypothesis that the export pricing decisions by u s firms are consistent with price discrimination across destination markets for cotton corn and soybeans the strongest evidence against the competitive market structure is obtained for international trade in wheat where results indicate that the two largest importers soviet union and prc may exert market power to obtain lower prices

using choice experiments to value the environment this paper we outline the choice experiment approach to environmental valuation this approach has its roots in lancaster s characteristics theory of value in random utility theory and in experimental design we show how marginal values for the attributes of environmental assets such as forests and rivers can be estimated from pair wise choices as well as the value of the environmental asset as a whole these choice pairs are designed so as to allow efficient statistical estimation of the underlying utility function and to minimise required sample size choice experiments have important advantages over other environmental valuation methods such as contingent valuation and travel cost type models although many design issues remain unresolved applications to environmental issues have so far been relatively limited we illustrate the use of choice experiments with reference to a recent uk study on public preferences for alternative forest landscapes this study allows us to perform a convergent validity test on the choice experiment estimates of willingness to pay

village wide effects of agricultural biotechnology the case of bt cotton in india previous studies on impacts of agricultural biotechnology have mostly focused on direct effects we suggest an economy wide framework to analyze income distribution aspects more carefully for a village in india a micro social accounting matrix sam is developed and used to simulate the effects of bt cotton adoption overall the technology is employment generating although family labor in cotton production is saved while substantial benefits are observed for small and large farmers total household income effects are bigger for larger farms this is mostly due to differential opportunity incomes of saved family labor some research and policy implications are discussed

the changing landscape of indian agriculture in tracking the revolutionary changes in the indian agricultural sector it is quite clear that technology institutions and markets have had a very important role to play of course the public sector played a pivotal and catalytic role when india ushered in the green revolution in late 1960s and early 1970s the public sector imported new seeds organized their distribution and demonstration and provided price and market support all not for profit the cooperative sector supported and facilitated by the government again with the spirit of not for profit helped bring in the white revolution in milk through operation flood in 1970s and 1980s this spirit is now being gradually replaced by for profit objective driven by the private sector as is demonstrated in the revolutionary changes brought about by the introduction of bacillus thuringiensis technology in the cotton sector during 2002 2007 on top of this the corporate sector is also changing the complexion of the indian agrisystem through notable changes in organized food processing and retailing this change in spirit from not for profit to for profit in the growth process of indian agriculture has significant implications for the concept of ciss i e competitiveness inclusiveness sustainability and scalability which needs to be studied carefully and in detail accordingly this article traces some of these dynamic changes and their likely implications

the impact of discounting emission credits on the competitiveness of different cdm host countries discounting the value of emission credits has been proposed as a possible approach for addressing some of the shortcomings of the clean development mechanism cdm it could be used to compensate for non additional cdm projects to increase the incentive for advanced developing countries to move from the cdm to own mitigation commitments and to improve the competitiveness of less developed countries as hosts for cdm projects we assess the impact of discounting on the distribution of cdm projects in host countries with a special focus on least developed countries ldcs cdm specific abatement cost curves are built for 4 regions china india other advanced asian countries and ldcs abatement costs are estimated using the information provided in the project documentation of 108 projects from 17 subtypes in 16 host countries abatement potentials are derived from the current cdm pipeline for each region for ldcs we additionally include an optimistic potential estimation by adding to the current pipeline the potential found by a world bank study for ldcs in sub saharan africa we then assess the effect of two emission credit discounting schemes on these abatement cost curves credit discounting is differentiated by host countries based on an index composed of per capita gdp and per capita emissions in the first scheme it only affects the most advanced cdm host countries in the second one it also affects china we find that discounting has an impact on the competitiveness of individual cdm host countries in the carbon market as it affects their abatement cost curves it could become an instrument for incentivising advanced developing countries to leave the cdm and engage in other farther reaching climate related commitments as a result of the resulting emission credit cost increases however even with discounting ldcs remain unimportant in terms of abatement potential if the financial technical and institutional barriers to cdm development in these countries are not overcome

the economics of biotechnology under ecosystem disruption abstract economic analysis of chemical pesticide use has shown that the interactions between plants pests damage control technology and state of the ecosystem are important variables to be considered hence a bio economic model was developed for the assessment of bt variety and pesticide based control strategies of the cotton bollworm in china the model simulates plant growth the dynamics of pest populations and of natural enemies the model predictions are used as major inputs for a stochastic micro level profit model of alternative control strategies results show that 1 productivity effects of bt varieties and pesticide use depend on the action of natural control agents and 2 the profitability of damage control measures increases with the severity of ecosystem disruption the findings highlight the importance of the choice of the counterfactual scenario in the assessment of the impact of agricultural biotechnology also some doubts are raised whether the high benefits of bt cotton varieties claimed by previous studies based on cross section comparisons are realistic

impact of bt cotton in china abstract a sample of 283 cotton farmers in northern china was surveyed in december 1999 farmers that used cotton engineered to produce the bacillus thuringiensis bt toxin substantially reduced the use of pesticide without reducing the output ha or quality of cotton this resulted in substantial economic benefits for small farmers consumers did not benefit directly farmers obtained the major share of benefits and because of weak intellectual property rights very little went back to government research institutes or foreign firms that developed these varieties farmers using bt cotton reported fewer pesticide poisonings than those using conventional cotton

emissions trading with offset markets and free quota allocations we study optimal climate policy for a policy bloc of countries facing a market where emissions offsets can be purchased from a non policy fringe of countries such as with the cdm policy bloc firms benefit from free quota allocations which are updated according to either firms past emissions or outputs we show that the resulting abatement and its allocation between policy bloc and fringe are both inefficient when all quotas are traded freely at a single price the policy bloc chooses to either not constrain the offset market leading to suboptimal policy bloc mitigation or ban offsets completely the former latter case occurs when free allocation of quotas is not very generous and the offset market is large small it is preferable for policy bloc countries governments to instead buy offsets directly from the fringe at a quota price below marginal damage cost of emissions while the policy bloc quota price will be above this cost with maximization of global welfare and a unified quota price this price is higher and offsets constrained in fewer cases but the solution still inefficient full efficiency then requires a higher quota price in the policy bloc than in the fringe

a latent class approach to investigating demand for genetically modified banana in uganda this study explores consumer acceptance and valuation of a genetically modified gm staple food crop in a developing country prior to its commercialization we focus on the hypothetical introduction of a disease resistant gm banana variety in uganda where bananas are among the most important staple crops a choice experiment is used to investigate consumer preferences for various attributes related to the banana such as bunch size technology producer benefit and price and examine their opinions on gm foodstuff choice data come from 421 banana consuming households randomly selected from three regions of uganda a latent class model is used to investigate the heterogeneity in consumers preferences for selected attributes related to the banana and to profile consumers who are more or less likely to accept gm bananas our results reveal that there is significant heterogeneity in consumer preferences across our sample gm bananas are valued the most by poorer households located in the rural areas of the eastern region these food insecure households would experience the highest benefits i e welfare gains from the commercial release of gm bananas in contrast urban consumers are less accepting of gm bananas and they would experience significant welfare losses if gm banana is released according to our welfare estimates both the total welfare benefits acquired by the gainers and the total welfare losses borne by the losers of this technology are significant and large these results suggest the need for further investigation of the overall welfare effects of the introduction of gm bananas on the ugandan society as a whole

market power and the pricing of commodities imported from developing countries the case of us vanilla bean imports abstract a declining trend in the prices of vanilla beans reduce export earnings of developing country exporters at the same time currencies for these developing countries have depreciated the new trade theories suggest that market structure plays an important role in relating exchange rate devaluations to price declines this paper investigates the market structure and estimates the impact of exchange rate movements on prices for vanilla beans imported by the usa from five producers of vanilla beans in developing countries unlike other studies the estimation is based on a fixed effects econometric model derived from the importer s profit equation and the pricing to market ptm hypothesis data are a pooled cross section and time series covering the period 1967 1997 the results reveal some evidence that us importers of vanilla beans have the market power to apply price discrimination and to adjust import prices in reaction to exchange rate movement vis a vis exporters

long run price effects of exchange rate changes in finnish pulp and paper exports this paper presents long run exchange rate elasticities of finnish newsprint and pulp export prices in the united kingdom uk and germany over the period 1980 94 the elasticities were estimated for a markup pricing model using johansen s cointegration method the magnitudes of the elasticity estimates obtained by imposing price homogeneity indicate that pass through of exchange rate changes to export prices has been incomplete in both markets for newsprint the pass through elasticity was 0 60 in the uk and 0 46 in germany which means that about one half of the changes in the exchange rates is reflected in prices as expressed in the destination countries currencies and about a half in prices measured in finnish markka instead in pulp exports the pass through elasticities differed from each other between the two destination countries more clearly than in newsprint exports indicating a different pricing behaviour of finnish pulp exporters in the uk and germany when exchange rate changes pass throug

strategic climate policy with offsets and incomplete abatement carbon taxes versus cap and trade abstract this paper provides a first analysis of a policy bloc of fossil fuel importers which implements an optimal climate policy faces a non policy fringe of other fuel importers and an exporter bloc and purchases offset from the fringe we compare a carbon tax and a cap and trade scheme for the policy bloc in either case accompanied by an efficient offset mechanism for reducing emissions in the fringe the policy bloc is shown to prefer a tax over a cap since only a tax reduces the fuel export price and by more when the policy bloc is larger offsets are also more favorable to the policy bloc under a tax than under a cap the optimal offset price under a carbon tax is below the tax rate while under a cap and free quota trading the offset price must equal the quota price the domestic carbon and offset prices are both higher under a tax than under a cap when the policy bloc is small when the policy bloc is larger the offset price can be higher under a cap fringe countries gain by mitigation in the policy bloc more under a carbon tax since the fuel import price is lower

pricing to market price discrimination or product differentiation we employ a vertical differentiation model to examine the potential bias in pricing to market results when using export unit values aggregating differentiated products our results show that i false evidence of pricing to market is always found when using unit values whether the law of one price holds or not and ii the size of the bias increases with the level of product differentiation our simulation results support those conceptual findings thus some of the positive pricing to market results in the literature could be an artifact of the product heterogeneity embodied in unit values rather than evidence of imperfect competition

price discrimination and pricing to market behavior of canadian canola exporters the role of exchange rate fluctuation on the pricing behavior of canadian canola exporters to japan mexico and the u s is examined using a model identifying noncompetitive and exchange rate related pricing behavior price discrimination was identified for canadian canola exports to the three destinations over the period of 1993 99 results also suggest that pricing to market strategies were employed for japanese imports canadian canola exporters used local currency price stabilization to dampen the effects of relative price changes in the japanese currency perhaps linked to the large size of japanese imports relative to mexico and the u s copyright 2001 oxford university press

valuing financial health and environmental benefits of bt cotton in pakistan data from a farm survey and choice experiment are used to value the benefits of bt cotton in pakistan unlike previous research on the economic impacts of bt which mostly concentrated on financial benefits in terms of gross margins we also quantify and monetize positive externalities associated with technology adoption due to lower chemical pesticide use on bt cotton plots there are significant health advantages in terms of reduced incidence of acute pesticide poisoning and environmental advantages in terms of higher biodiversity and lower soil and groundwater contamination these positive externalities are valued at us 79 per acre of which half is attributable to health and the other half to environmental improvements adding average gross margin gains of us 204 results in an aggregate benefit of us 283 per acre of bt or us 1 7 billion for the total bt cotton area in pakistan

pesticide risk valuation in empirical economics a comparative approach abstract pesticide use in agriculture poses several risks to both human health and nontarget agro ecosystems due to lack of information on the monetary value of reducing pesticide risks it is difficult to perform an economic analysis that addresses social efficiency of policy and draws conclusions about the appropriate degree of regulation the aim of the current paper is to present a critical overview of the empirical literature on pesticide risk valuation that provides disaggregate willingness to pay estimates wtps of pesticide risks reduction recent multidimensional classification methods such as coined decision tree analysis are used in a comparative approach as tools for explaining the differences in empirical research findings the analysis shows that the order of magnitude of wtps is related to both the valuation technique and to the data available from biomedical and ecotoxicological literature it also shows that wtp estimates of pesticide risks cannot be simply averaged over several empirical studies the order of magnitude of a wtp estimate is in fact related to the specific type of risk and to the nature of the risk scenario considered as well to lay people s subjective perception of risks

choice modelling and its potential application to tropical rainforest preservation abstract loss of rainforest occurs in part because of a global market failure problem markets routinely transmit signals about international demands for forest products such as timber but fail to transmit signals about demands for preservation to make efficient resource allocation choices decision makers need some framework to estimate the non use values that might be held by an international community for rainforest preservation non market valuation techniques can be used for this purpose but framing and other problems limit the application of the contingent valuation method cvm an alternative technique choice modelling cm appears to hold some promise because it can be used to model complex situations and to frame choices consistent with real life choices in this paper a cm experiment to assess the values that australians hold for rainforest conservation in vanuatu is reported the experiment disguises effectively the issue of interest rainforest conservation in vanuatu within a pool of other conservation locations also the experiment demonstrates that choice tradeoffs may involve a variety of environmental and socio economic factors rather than be concentrated on some monetary tradeoff the results demonstrate that a variety of predictive and valuation tools can be gained from a cm experiment and suggest that further development is warranted

pricing to market behaviour of india s high value agri food exporters an empirical analysis of major destination markets the pricing behaviour of india s high value agricultural and food exporters in their major destination markets is examined using a pricing to market ptm model for noncompetitive and exchange rate related pricing behaviour the analysis was undertaken in a context where india is showing high commodity concentration in agricultural trade the econometric analysis employed is panel corrected standard errors pcse estimation technique the results indicated evidence of a greater degree of imperfect competition either through price discrimination across destinations or through imperfect exchange rate pass through the analysis of exchange rate effects showed that the local currency price stabilization by the indian exporters were more prominent than the amplification of exchange rates the analysis of the asymmetric effects of exchange rates on export prices showed that in most cases the depreciation of indian rupee had a greater impact than the appreciation moreover the results showed that the exchange rate pass through is sensitive to the kind of exchange rate index utilised in our analysis we found that the commodity specific exchange rate better predicts the pricing to market behaviour in most cases

dynamic games and international trade an application to the world corn market dynamic games are a conceptually useful way of analyzing imperfect markets where both buyers and sellers have potential market power previous analysis of imperfect markets was static and limited to either exporters or importers a dynamic game allows the inclusion of both importers and exporters in a multiperiod framework allowing the derivation of reaction functions a nash noncooperative difference game is applied to the international corn market to explore the plausibility of numerical results the results are reasonable and show that the game approach based on a more comprehensive econometric model has a promising future in policy analysis

major determinants of ocean freight rates for grains an econometric analysis econometric analysis of ocean grain rates suggests that ship size and trade volume are of approximately equal importance with distance in determining rates use of large ships reduces at sea costs and hence the role of distance but larger ships appear to incur higher port costs which suggests that efficient port facilities are required for scale economies to be realized policies to improve shipping technology and increase trade volume can lead to lower rates reduce geographic differences among exporters and thus lead to more competitive markets this implies that the role of transportation in trade analysis should not be ignored

residual demand measures of market power of russian wheat exporters traditionally the international wheat market has been considered a good example of a market with perfect competition yet several articles provide evidence of imperfect competition and price discrimination in the wheat trade however these studies focused on traditional high quality wheat exporters such as canada and the united states in contrast this article investigates whether russian wheat exporters exercise market power in eight selected importing countries using the residual demand elasticity rde model the article makes two major contributions first it focuses on a nontraditional exporter who exports mainly wheat of mediocre quality to low and middle income countries second the rde model is estimated for the first time using a nonlinear estimator the instrumental variable poisson pseudo maximum likelihood estimator this is important because the double logarithmic functional form can provide biased results in the presence of heteroskedasticity the results indicate that russian wheat exporters can exercise market power in only a few markets while they are price takers in the majority of importing countries

exchange rates and prices the adjustment of relative prices to exchange rate movements is explained in an industrial organization approach given labor costs in the respective currencies exchange rate movements change costs for firms selling in the home market and thus disturb the industry equilibrium the extent of absolute and relative price adjustment is shown to depend on market integration product substitutability the relative number of domestic and foreign firms and the market structure the impact of exchange rates on prices is illustrated in a variety of approaches including the cournot a dixit and j stiglitz 1977 and s salop 1979 models some empirical evidence is offered in support of the theory copyright 1987 by american economic association

impact of bt cotton on pesticide poisoning in smallholder agriculture a panel data analysis while substantial research on the productivity and profit effects of bt cotton has been carried out recently the economic evaluation of positive and negative externalities has received much less attention here we focus on farmer health impacts resulting from bt related changes in chemical pesticide use previous studies have documented that bt cotton has reduced the problem of pesticide poisoning in developing countries but they have failed to account for unobserved heterogeneity between technology adopters and non adopters we use unique panel survey data from india to estimate unbiased effects and their developments over time bt cotton has reduced pesticide applications by 50 with the largest reductions of 70 occurring in the most toxic types of chemicals results of fixed effects poisson models confirm that bt has notably reduced the incidence of acute pesticide poisoning among cotton growers these effects have become more pronounced with increasing technology adoption rates bt cotton now helps to avoid several million cases of pesticide poisoning in india every year which also entails sizeable health cost savings