how do market reforms affect china s responsiveness to environmental policy a large percentage of total investment in china is allocated by the central government at below market interest rates in pursuit of non economic objectives this has resulted in low rates of return and a high number of non performing loans threatening the future health of the chinese economy as a result reform of capital markets is a high priority of the chinese government at the same time the country is implementing various environmental policies to deal with serious pollution issues in this paper we ask how reforms of the capital market will affect the functioning of a carbon tax this allows us to assess how china s willingness to join global efforts to reduce carbon emissions is influenced by china s current efforts to reduce investment subsidies we compare the costs of a carbon tax in a reformed economy with the costs of a carbon tax in the current subsidized economy we find that in the subsidized economy the tax interaction effect dampens the effect of a carbon tax resulting in smaller reductions in emissions than what would result in a reformed economy importantly we also find that the effect on economic welfare from a carbon tax is lower in the subsidized economy in fact for lower levels of reductions the carbon tax is actually welfare improving these results have important implications for an economy undergoing economic transition the carbon tax rate required to achieve a certain level of emission reductions will be higher in an economy with capital subsidies however the welfare implications of the tax indicate that the current system with capital subsidies is highly distorting implying that there is a high efficiency cost for the non economic objectives the government is pursuing by maintaining this system of subsidies

co benefit of carbon mitigation on resource use in china abstract on one hand natural resources and energy provide the basis for life on earth but waste and emissions are produced during their throughput on the other hand china as the most populous country and an emerging economic powerhouse has taken on the challenge of hitting peak carbon dioxide co2 emissions by 2030 pursuing resource co benefits from carbon mitigation is an effective approach for china on the road to achieving the 2030 goal in this study we combine the computable general equilibrium cge model and the economy wide material flow accounts or analysis ew mfa method to estimate china s future co2 emissions and resource consumption and their co benefit effect three scenarios are analyzed business as usual bau nationally determined contributions ndc and the scenario of achieving the 2 degree target 2deg we find that both the ndc and 2deg targets can be achieved by 2030 without a significant compromise in economic growth with the effect of carbon mitigation china s resource consumption would rise by a factor of 1 7 bau 1 6 ndc and 1 5 2deg during 2012 2030 and the reduction in co benefits of metal ores nonmetallic minerals and fossil fuels would be 0 6 billion tons and 1 4 billion tons 0 8 billion tons and 2 0 billion tons and 2 6 billion tons and 4 6 billion tons for ndc and 2deg respectively sectoral disparity indicates that sectors with high emissions and resource consumption include traditional heavy industrial sectors and energy related sectors for which additional mitigation policies should be employed not only because they offer the most co benefit effects but they also have the least cost

how to deal with covert child labor and give children an effective education in a poor developing country because credit and insurance markets are imperfect and intra family transfers and how children use their time outside school hours are private information the second best policy makes school enrollment compulsory forces overt child labor below its efficient level if positive and uses a combination of need and merit based grants financed by earmarked taxes to relax credit constraints redistribute and insure existing conditional cash transfer schemes can be made to approximate the second best policy by incorporating these principles in some measure

foreign and domestic investment regional development or crowding out driffield n and hughes d 2003 foreign and domestic investment regional development or crowding out reg studies 37 277 288 this paper tests at the regional and industry level the extent to which domestic investment is stimulated or crowded out by inward foreign direct investment the paper develops a model of domestic investment based on standard models drawn from macroeconomics and industrial economics the paper then goes on to show that at a general level the development or agglomeration hypothesis is confirmed that domestic investment is indeed stimulated by inward investment however there is also evidence that in certain regions inward investment has crowded out domestic investment the implications of this from the perspective of regional policy are briefly discussed driffield n et hughes d 2003 l investissement direct e tranger et l investissement interieur une question d ame nagement du territoire ou un effet d evincement reg studies 37 277 288 cet article cherche

childbearing age family allowances and social security although the optimal policy under endogenous fertility has been widely studied the optimal public intervention under endogenous childbearing age has remained largely unexplored this paper examines the optimal family policy in a context where the number and the timing of births are chosen by individuals who differ as to how early fertility can weaken future earnings growth we analyze the design of a policy of family allowances and of public pensions in such a setting under distinct informational environments we show how endogenous childbearing ages affect the optimal policy through the redistribution across the earnings dimension and the internalization of fertility externalities it is also shown that contrary to common practice children benefits differentiated according to the age of parents can under some conditions be part of the optimal family policy

taxing family size and subsidizing child specific commodities abstract the effects and optimal choice of policy instruments directly affecting the welfare of parents and children are examined within the context of a household economics model if fertility were exogenous and households differed in number of children only a first best could be implement through a grant conditional on family size outside this very special case public intervention is either not justifiable on distributional grounds or involves taxing child specific commodities less than adult specific commodities if fertility is endogenous family size must be taxed or subsidized according to whether household expenditure on children is decreasing or increasing in the mother s wage rate

branch plants and the evolving spatial division of labour a study of material linkage change in the northern region of england phelps n a 1993 branch plants and the evolving spatial division of labour a study of material linkage change in the northern region of england reg studies 27 87 101 recent literature has suggested that manufacturing industry including that in peripheral regions is becoming more locally embedded as a result of processes of externalization and localized linkage formation this paper explores the hypothesis that branch plants have in terms of spatial patterns of material linkages become more locally embedded as a result of recent industrial restructuring evidence from a survey of manufacturing establishments in the northern region of england is used to explore hypotheses regarding the contribution of new greenfield investments and in situ restructuring to aggregate changes in spatial patterns of linkages the results suggests that despite processes of externalization northern region branch plants continue to be poorly integrated into the regional economy consequently it is argued that the cont

the synthesis of bottom up and top down approaches to climate policy modeling electric power technology detail in a social accounting framework abstract hybrid climate policy simulations have sought to bridge the gap between bottom up engineering and top down macroeconomic models by integrating the former s energy technology detail into the latter s macroeconomic framework construction of hybrid models is complicated by the need to numerically calibrate them to multiple incommensurate sources of economic and engineering data i develop a solution to this problem following howitt s howitt r e 1995 positive mathematical programming american journal of agricultural economics 77 329 342 positive mathematical programming approach using data for the u s i illustrate how the inputs to the electricity sector in a social accounting matrix may be allocated among discrete types of generation so as to be consistent with both technologies input shares from engineering cost estimates and the zero profit and market clearance conditions of the sector s macroeconomic production structure

thailand s low carbon scenario 2050 the aim cge analyses of co2 mitigation measures climate change and co2 mitigation have become increasingly important environmental issues recently thailand has proposed policies on ghg mitigation such as thailand s nationally appropriate mitigation action nama which aims at ghg mitigation in the energy sector this study used the computable general equilibrium cge model called aim cge model to analyse ghg mitigation measures under emission trading and carbon capture and storage ccs technology in thailand results show that the international free emission trading policy can drive more ghg reduction by decreasing energy supply and demand and increasing prices of emissions the ccs technologies would balance emission reduction but they would reduce energy efficiency improvement and renewable energy utilization in the energy security aspect the policy options in this study would improve energy security energy import dependency and co benefits of ghg mitigation in forms of improving local air quality results are also helpful to ghg mitigation policy in developing countries

estimates of electricity saving potential in chinese nonferrous metals industry the paper analyzes the electricity saving potential of nonferrous metals industry in china the cointegration method is applied to estimate electricity intensity of chinese nonferrous metals industry in an effort to predict future electricity saving potential the results show that there is a long run equilibrium between electricity intensity and factors such as r d intensity industrial electricity price enterprise scale and labor productivity by means of scenario analysis we evaluate different possible measures that might be adopted to narrow down the electricity efficiency gap between nonferrous metals industry in china and that of japan the results indicate that more active electricity conservation policies are needed in order to reduce the electricity intensity of chinese nonferrous metals industry we also find that the electricity efficiency gap could be significantly narrowed by 2020 if proper electricity conservation policy is adopted finally based on the results of the scenario analysis future policy priorities are suggested

the effect of tax transfer policies on fertility in canada 1921 88 this paper estimates the effect on fertility of the personal tax exemption for children child tax credit family allowances and maternity leave benefits in canada using time series data from 1921 to 1988 it is found that the exemption child tax credit and family allowances all have significant and positive effects on fertility the results are robust to a variety of specifications including first differencing while the three tax transfer programs seem to be very distinct the null hypothesis that they have no differential effects on fertility can hardly be rejected all the results also hold for the cumulative effect of the three tax transfer programs the estimates predict that a large increase in the value of the tax transfer programs would be needed to increase fertility to the replacement level

revealing the political decision toward chinese carbon abatement based on equity and efficiency criteria abstract china s economic reform over the past 30 years has allowed the free market to drive economic development however government still plays a key role in the energy sector by allocating energy conservation and emissions abatement how does the government make an equity decision as a tradeoff to market efficiency this is an unanswered question the purpose of this paper is to illustrate the government s preference toward equity and efficiency using the provincial level co 2 intensity allocation data we investigate the political decision that the government made based on the equity and efficiency criteria we find that the equity index plays a more important role than the efficiency index in determining the co 2 intensity target in addition political factors such as social stability are found to be important factors

carbon pricing and energy efficiency improvement why to miss the interaction for developing economies an illustrative cge based application to the pakistan case abstract carbon energy taxes and energy efficiency improvement are studied well in the recent years for their potential adverse impacts on economy especially for lost production and international competitiveness and rebound effects however little attention has been paid to investigate them jointly which can not only prevent fall of energy services cost and thereby rebound effect but reduce the associated macroeconomic costs this study thus employs a 20 sector cge model to explore separately the impacts of carbon tax and its coordinated implementation with energy efficiency improvement on the pakistan economy the country underwent enormous pressure of energy security issues as well as climate change fallouts in the last couple of years and can be regarded as a suitable candidate for energy environmental conservation policies to be considered at a broader context with more concrete efforts the simulation results show that the impact of carbon tax on gdp is negative but resulting reductions in pollutant emissions are relatively high moreover the gdp is expected to grow comparatively positive when analyzed with improvements in energy efficiency with even higher decline in energy consumption demand and so emissions this simultaneous economic and environmental improvement would thus have positive implications regarding sustainable development of the country

does the welfare state destroy the family evidence from oecd member countries we study the effect of the size of the welfare state on family outcomes in oecd member countries exploiting exogenous variation in public social spending due to varying degrees of political fractionalization i e the number of relevant parties involved in the legislative process we show that an expansion in the welfare state increases the fertility marriage and divorce rates with a quantitatively stronger effect on the marriage rate we conclude that the welfare state supports family formation nevertheless we also find that the welfare state decouples marriage and fertility and therefore alters the organization of the family authors abstract

assessing the impacts of china s environmental tax using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model abstract since 2018 china has put into practice the new environmental protection tax law which levies taxes on non greenhouse pollutants with stringent standards to fully study the socioeconomic and environmental impacts of this policy this paper establishes a dynamic country level compute general equilibrium cge model with the electricity sector disaggregated into 5 technologies and 19 major taxable pollutants included five scenarios are developed including the baseline scenario bau the low environmental tax scenario lowet the high environmental tax scenario highet the low environmental tax and low carbon tax scenario lowetc and the high environmental tax and high carbon tax scenario highetc the simulation results show that the environmental tax could help reduce emissions of most kinds of pollutants but bring negative effects on the gross domestic product gdp compared to the bau scenario the gdp loss by 2030 would be 0 10 0 21 0 32 and 0 67 in the lowet highet lowetc and highetc scenarios the emission of sulphur dioxide so2 will decrease by 3 55 7 15 6 70 and 13 01 and the emission of carbon dioxide co2 will be reduced by 2 21 4 62 8 91 and 16 77 the result also shows that the heavy polluted sectors and energy intensive sectors will suffer higher output loss while the clean energy sectors and service sector will experience an increase in the output in the policy scenarios

selling global buying local what determines the sourcing patterns of multinational plants in ireland hewitt dundas n andreosso o callaghan b crone m murray j and roper s 2005 selling global buying local what determines the sourcing patterns of multinational plants in ireland regional studies 39 225 239 multinational enterprises mnes have played an important if not crucial role in the recent development of the economy of ireland both north and south this paper compares the extent to which mne plants north and south are integrated into their host economies through local sourcing this is important both in terms of the direct effect on local demand and because local trading relationships provide a medium for technology transfer and supplier development levels of local sourcing north and south have diverged sharply over the last 15 years in the south local supply chains have grown stronger with mne plants now purchasing around 21 of their material inputs from within the country in the north by contrast local supply chain linkages have become weaker with only around 11 of mn

contrasting experience of recession and spatial restructuring british shipbuilders plessey and metal box peck f w and townsend a r 1984 contrasting experience of recession and spatial re structuring british shipbuilders plessey and metal box reg studies 18 319 338 trends in aggregate economic indicators in the recent recession conceal marked variations in the experience of different industrial corporations within the meso economic sector in the uk this paper demonstrates such variations by comparing the nature of employment decline in three major uk corporations british shipbuilders plessey and metal box despite similar employment profiles since 1977 these three corporations have experienced very different trends in output productivity and profitability suggesting that their respective job losses have occurred for different reasons the origins of these job losses are examined in detail concentrating in particular on the regional incidence of major redundancies and closures the conclusion summarizes the factors which influence job loss and suggests extending the analysis to wider groups of

income distribution policies with endogenous fertility the implications of endogenous fertility for intra generational welfare comparisons of alternative policies with respect to income taxation and family allowances are considered the interactions among the choices between leisure options labor force participation and fertility are shown to be crucial to the determination of both the signs and the magnitudes of the optimal child allowances and income tax rates the implications of a negative marginal tax rate and a negative child allowance are considered annotation

on the impacts of carbon tax and technological progress on china using a dynamic national computable general equilibrium model we investigate the impact of carbon tax and energy efficiency improvement on the economy and environment of china the chinese social

a model of female labor supply in italy using cohort data this paper attempts to develop a behavioral model of female labor supply in italy using cohort data our starting theoretical assumptions of perfect information intertemporal separability and utility maximization under a lifetime wealth constraint are relaxed in a second stage the results suggest that the flat female participation rate profile from both a time series and a cross section perspective is presumably produced by economic incentive effects that counter balance each other however with the recent rise in cohort specific earning power we identify a decrease in the work disincentive effects of aging and of children under 6

quantifying regional economic impacts of co2 intensity targets in china we acknowledge the support of the ministry of science and technology of china through the institute for energy environment and economy at tsinghua university and the support from graduate school of tsinghua university which is supporting zhang da s doctoral research as a 22 visiting scholar at the massachusetts institute of technology we are also grateful for the support provided by rio tinto china and social science key research program from national social science foundation china of grant no 09 zd029 we further acknowledge the support of eni s p a icf international and shell founding sponsors of the china energy and climate project for supporting this model development work we would further like to thank dr john reilly dr sergey paltsev dr kyung min nam dr henry chen paul kishimoto and tianyu qi at joint program on the science and policy of global change and participants in the annual meeting of china energy and climate project and ecomod 2012 conference for helpful comments and discussion 23

having it all for all child care subsidies and income distribution reconciled abstract we study the design of child care policies when redistribution matters traditional mothers provide some informal child care whereas career mothers purchase full time formal care the sorting of women across career paths is endogenous and shaped by a social norm about gender roles in the family via this social norm traditional mothers informal child care imposes an externality on career mothers so that the market outcome is inefficient informal care is too large and the group of career mothers is too small so that inefficiency and gender inequality go hand in hand in a first best world redistribution across couples and efficiency are separable redistribution is performed via lump sum transfers and taxes which are designed to equalize utilities across all couples the efficient allocation of child care is obtained by subsidizing formal care at a pigouvian rate however in a second best setting a trade off between efficiency and redistribution emerges the optimal uniform subsidy is lower than the pigouvian level conversely under a nonlinear policy the first best pigouvian rule for the marginal subsidy on informal care is reestablished while the share of high career mothers continues to be distorted downward for incentive reasons this policy is effective in reconciling the objectives of reducing the child care related inefficiency and achieving a more equal income distribution across couples our results continue to hold when the norm is defined within the mothers social group rather than being based on the entire population

identifying the response of fertility to financial incentives summary while using financial incentives to increase fertility has become relatively common the effects of such policies are difficult to assess we propose an identification strategy that relies on the fact that the variation in wages induces variation in benefits and tax credits among comparable households we implement our approach by estimating a discrete choice model of female participation and fertility using individual data from the french labor force survey and a detailed representation of the french tax benefit system our results suggest that financial incentives have had a significant effect on fertility decisions in france as an example we simulate the effects of an additional unconditional child credit of 150 euros per month the effects are strongest for the third child copyright 2013 john wiley sons ltd

modelling the joint determination of household labour supplies and commodity demands in addition to choosing the allocation of total expenditure between commodities households may also be able to make decisions over the allocation of their time between market work and leisure in both theoretical and empirical work it has often been the case that these decisions have been analysed separately in this paper we stress the theoretical attractions of considering the joint determination of the allocation of time between work and leisure and the allocation of total expenditure between commodities in a utility maximising framework using a sample of individual households we attempt to evaluate the empirical importance of the joint determination model over the separate determination of labour supplies and commodity demands our approach follows that of abbott and ashenfelter i976 phlips i978 barnett i979 deaton and muellbauer i980 and atkinson and stern i980 here we pay particular attention to the following four important aspects of household decision making over commodity demand and labour supply the first concerns the commonly assumed restriction on the household s preferences of weak separability between goods and leisure this assumption allows the estimation of commodity demand systems and engel curves that exclude wage rate variables in cross section household budget data with large variation in wage rates across the sample the invalidity of this assumption would involve a serious mis specification any correlation between the excluded wage variable and the included price income and demographic variables would lead to biased parameter estimates and hence biased estimated elasticities similarly this assumption allows the estimation of labour supply curves that exclude relative price variables and its invalidity could produce biased labour supply elasticities a second aspect of household decision making which we wish to highlight arises from the suspicion commonly alluded to in labour economics texts that primary male workers may not be free to choose their hours of work thus we estimate a matched pair of rationed and unrationed systems following the work of neary and roberts i 980 and deaton and muellbauer i 979 the separability restriction is not unrelated to this point since without it we will see that the rationed hours of work enter demand systems in a complex fashion in effect

technological and organizational change in automobile production spatial implications 1 schoenberger e 1987 technological and organizational change in automobile production spatial implications reg studies 21 199 214 the origins and implications of recent technological and organizational changes in the automobile industry are examined the nature of competition in the industry is linked to the adoption of flexible automation technologies in production this it is argued may foster the spatial re integration of production in contrast to earlier decentralizing trends an effect that may be reinforced by the move to just in time principles of production organization implications for regional development are considered with cautions stressed concerning the meaning of spatial proximity and the firm s ability to construct agglomeration economies away from traditional industrial centres schoenberger e 1987 changements technologiques et organisationnels dans la production automobile implications spatiales reg studies 21 199 214 les origines et les implications des recents changem

the economy impacts of korean ets with an emphasis on sectoral coverage based on a cge approach abstract south korea initiated an emissions trading scheme ets on january 1 2015 based on this environmental policy at the 21st conference of parties cop meeting the korean government announced that it would decrease carbon emissions 37 from business as usual bau levels by 2030 since this target is too ambitious for the korean economy a number of studies have analyzed the economic impacts of emissions trading in korea but few have distinguished between industries covered and not covered by the ets notwithstanding the lack of industry level data on quotas and emissions this study overcomes such shortcomings by converting a dataset of 525 firms covered by the south korea ets sk ets into a 28 sector database consistent with the global trade analysis project gtap classifications we implement a simulation of the sk ets with a computational general equilibrium cge model simulation results suggest that while sk ets has significant abatement effects 2 56 from the base case it only has mild negative impacts on gdp 0 41 and household consumption 0 11 industry output on average falls by 0 54 with the gas and air transport sectors most adversely affected the most noticeable price changes are from the electricity sector whose output price goes up by 3 75 it is noteworthy that because of the export oriented economy many global business leaders and politicians have argued that the ets will disadvantage exporting companies while the simulation results showed a higher trade surplus based on enhanced competitiveness

policy and institutional dimensions of the water energy nexus energy and water are interlinked the development use and waste generated by demand for both resources drive global change managing them in tandem offers potential for global change adaptation but presents institutional challenges this paper advances understanding of the water energy nexus by demonstrating how these resources are coupled at multiple scales and by uncovering institutional opportunities and impediments to joint decision making three water energy nexus cases in the united states are examined 1 water and energy development in the water scarce southwest 2 conflicts between coal development environmental quality and social impacts in the east and 3 tensions between environmental quality and economic development of shale natural gas in the northeast and central u s these cases are related to eastern central and western regional stakeholder priorities collected in a national effort to assess energy water scenarios we find that localized challenges are diminished when considered from broader perspectives while regionally important challenges are not prioritized locally the transportability of electricity and to some extent raw coal and gas makes energy more suitable than water to regionalized global change adaptation because many of the impacts to water availability and quality remain localized we conclude by highlighting the need for improved coordination between water and energy policy

designing an emissions trading scheme for china an up to date climate policy assessment abstract we assess recent chinese climate policy proposals in a multi region multi sector computable general equilibrium model with a chinese carbon emissions trading scheme ets when the emissions intensity per gdp in 2020 is required to be 45 lower than in 2005 the model simulations indicate that the climate policy induced welfare loss in 2020 measured as the level of gdp and welfare in 2020 under climate policy relative to their level under business as usual bau in the same year is about 1 the chinese welfare loss in 2020 slightly increases in the chinese rate of economic growth in 2020 when keeping the emissions target fixed at the 2020 level after 2020 in absolute terms the welfare loss will reach about 2 in 2030 if china s annual economic growth rate is 0 5 percentage points higher lower the climate policy induced welfare loss in 2030 will rise decline by about 0 5 percentage points full auctioning of carbon allowances results in very similar macroeconomic effects as free allocation but full auctioning leads to higher reductions in output than free allocation for ets sectors linking the chinese to the european ets and restricting the transfer volume to one third of the eu s reduction effort creates at best a small benefit for china yet with smaller sectoral output reductions than auctioning these results highlight the importance of designing the chinese ets wisely

china s 2020 clean energy target consistency pathways and policy implications abstract china has proposed its 2020 clean energy target together with the climate change target of reducing co2 intensity of the economy by 40 45 below the 2005 level this article investigates the feasibility of these targets by testing their consistency under possible economic development scenarios we analyse these targets from two perspectives consistency with the overall economic growth and consistency with the international society s expectation on china s greenhouse gas ghg abatement responsibilities the main findings are under the recently announced 2020 target of gross domestic product gdp that is double the 2010 level the adoption of a 15 clean energy target could result in excessive primary energy demand and then with 40 45 gdp co2 intensity reduction co2 emissions in 2020 could substantially exceed the international energy agency iea 450 ppm scenario for china thus we propose a 17 clean energy target that can reconcile the domestic plan with international expectation our article also outlines the pathways to realise clean energy development into 2020 and proposes policy recommendations

a microeconomic analysis of the timing of births abstract the effects of personal characteristics wage rates and career structures on the time profile of childbearing among married couples are examined theoretically through an intertemporal microeconomic model of family decisions and empirically by an econometric analysis of british women s childbearing and work histories the effects of the mother s age on the quality of the child and the financial implications of interrupting the mother s career to care for a child are taken explicitly into account the demographic consequences of economic policies are also examined

assessing the impacts of foreign manufacturing on regional economies the cases of wales scotland and the west midlands brand s hill s and munday m 2000 assessing the impacts of foreign manufacturing on regional economies the cases of wales scotland and the west midlands reg studies 34 343 355 this paper examines the direct and indirect contributions made by foreign manufacturing companies to the regional economies of wales scotland and the west midlands survey data derived from foreign manufacturers in each region were used in conjunction with regional input output tables to assess the comparative contributions of defined foreign and domestically owned sectors to regional value added the analyses are a starting point for the more accurate targeting of regional resources to industry sectors in the respective regional economies brand s hills s et munday m 2000 evaluer les retombees de l industrie etrangere sur les economies regionales etude de cas du pays de galles de l ecosse et des west midlands reg studies 34 343 355 cet article cherche a examiner les roles direct et indirect joue par les en

property rights and efficiency in olg models with endogenous fertility is there an economic rationale for pronatalist policies we propose and analyze a particular market failure that leads to inefficiently low fertility in equilibrium the friction is caused by the lack of ownership of children if parents have no claim on their children s income the private benefit from producing a child can be smaller than the social benefit we analyze an overlapping generations model with fertility choice and parental altruism ownership is modeled as a minimum constraint on transfers from parents to children using the efficiency concepts proposed in golosov jones and tertilt 2007 we find that whenever the transfer floor is binding fertility choices are inefficient second we show that the usual conditions for efficiency are not sufficient in this context third in contrast to settings with exogenous fertility a payg social security system cannot be used to implement efficient allocations to achieve an efficient outcome government transfers need to be tied to fertility choice

will export rebate policy be effective for co2 emissions reduction in china a ceepa based analysis china has adopted cancellation of export tax rebate policies on many occasions to push ahead energy conservation and emission reduction since 2007 by applying a ceepa china energy environmental policy analysis system model this paper simulates the impacts of the cancellation of export rebates on co2 emissions and socio economic consequences in different scenarios so as to figure out whether it works this paper covers three export rebate scenarios and makes comparisons between the impacts of export rebates on emission reduction effects and that of carbon tax policies the conclusions are 1 the current policy which cancels export rebates for key sectors can cut emissions at huge economic cost yet it is unsustainable 2 the policy which cancels export rebates for key sectors and meanwhile subsidizes sectoral outputs yields double dividends in the short term thus can facilitate emission reduction yet the boost is limited 3 the policy which cancels export rebates and boosts domestic demand helps improving residents welfare in the short term while it may inflict pronounced social and economic impacts in the long run so policy of this kind should be adopted with great caution 4 export rebates generate far more economic costs than carbon tax policies in the long term and don t contribute to optimizing the energy mix as well as the latter in summary canceling export rebates should not be regarded as a priority to encourage emission reduction

economic and climate impacts of reducing china s renewable electricity curtailment a comparison between cge models with alternative nesting structures of electricity abstract to mitigate climate change impacts and achieve low carbon transformation china has accelerated the development of renewable energy which is severely challenged by the curtailment of renewable electricity this study uses a dynamic multi sectoral cge model with alternative nesting structures and substitution elasticities for electricity with different power sources to capture the economic and environmental feasibility of reducing renewable electricity curtailment across all economic sectors in china the reduction of renewable electricity curtailment is simulated during 2021 2030 from the curtailment rates of 2015 2017 we found that the reduction of renewable electricity curtailment would lead to a significant expansion in the output of renewable electricity and a moderate decrease in non renewable electricity production among the renewable electricity wind power has the most significant output gain over 9 with solar power and hydropower outputs rising by over 5 and 1 5 respectively however without the cost neutrality assumption the impacts of reducing electricity curtailment would be largely over estimated with cge models simulated by improved technology the disparity between results from the models with alternative nesting constant elasticity of substitution ces functions for electricity sectors is highly dependent on the difference between their substitution elasticities accompanying the changes in electricity generation the reduction of renewable electricity curtailment would bring multiple green co benefits like significantly reducing co2 and air pollutants emitted from electricity sectors and improvements in real gdp and employment

endogenous fertility and the henry george theorem abstract models of endogenous demographic change deal with population size as an additional object of the welfare analysis in these models the overlapping generations olg model serves as the basic framework in club theory too population size is treated as an endogenous variable in local public goods lpg models the so called henry george theorem which requires local public expenditures to be financed by a 100 tax on aggregate land rent is known as a first order condition for club efficiency the present paper establishes and exploits an isomorphism between steady states of the olg model and allocations of the lpg model the paper revisits samuelson s fallacy concerning his goldenest golden rule and it explores institutional arrangements that sustain the optimum growth of population

dynamic formulation of a top down and bottom up merging energy policy model abstract the impact of energy policy measures is not restricted to the energy system and should therefore be analysed within an economy wide framework while keeping the essential details of the energy sector the aim of this paper is to present new developments in the field of the consistent evaluation of indicators for the sustainability assessment of energy policy measures starting from the static concept of bohringer energy econ 20 1998 233 this paper shows how the complementarity format can be used in computable general equilibrium cge modelling for a dynamic formulation of bottom up and top down approach merging models while a hybrid approach increases the credibility of cge models in energy policy analysis by replacing the energy sector generic functional forms with a bottom up activity analysis based on specific technologies the endogenous formulation of investment decisions makes an explicit description of evolving specific capital stocks and technology mixes possible both features are essential when assessing effects of policy measures that may be affected by structural change which is typically the case in the long term assessment of energy policy measures

the impact of natural gas price control in china a computable general equilibrium approach abstract this paper depicts the natural gas price control behavior of the chinese government in an imperfect competition market structure using a static cge model it simulates the effect of changes in natural gas price control policy on carbon emission and the economic effects in view of demand side and supply side based on the above we also analyze the carbon emission mechanism from economic and energy structure perspective the results show that an increase in natural gas price can reduce carbon emission or tends to cause a long term decline in the surplus profit rate of the natural gas industry moreover the increase in natural gas price may raise the cpi and reduce actual gdp and residents welfare on the contrary a decrease in natural gas price may reduce cpi and enhance resident welfare however the long term actual gdp will not increase but carbon emission will increase and the surplus profit rate of the natural gas industry may reduce in the short term and increase in the long term on the other hand both increase and decrease in natural gas prices may result in a decrease of the actual gdp level in the long term the elimination of price control in natural gas supply may increase actual gdp and residents welfare and reduce cpi meanwhile it may increase carbon emissions and improve the profitability of the natural gas industry

the economic impact of china s indc distinguishing the roles of the renewable energy quota and the carbon market abstract this study contributes to the existing literature on economic impacts assessment of china s intended nationally determined contributions indc by 2030 a dynamic computable general equilibrium cge model of china that incorporates the technological details of the electricity sector is used in this study two main policy choices including the renewable quota and the carbon market are modeled to distinguish different pathways to indc targets results show several important findings first the total economic cost required to achieve china s indc targets ranges from 0 11 to 0 43 of gdp by 2030 second energy sectors such as the coal mining and electric power sectors are the most affected by china s indc in terms of both sectoral production and price this study further indicates that the implementation of a national carbon market is efficient in reducing the compliance costs of indc targets while the deployment of renewable power helps to create employment opportunities and reduce permit prices in the carbon market in addition the results of a cost benefit analysis suggest that the hidden health benefits of china s indc can offset approximately 42 1 162 3 of the compliance costs even based on the most conservative estimates

china s energy water nexus assessment of the energy sector s compliance with the 3 red lines industrial water policy abstract increasing population and economic growth continue to drive china s demand for energy and water resources the interaction of these resources is particularly important in china where water resources are unevenly distributed with limited availability in coal rich regions the 3 red lines water policies were introduced in 2011 one of their aims is to reduce industrial water use of which the energy sector is a part this paper analyses current water withdrawals and consumption for all energy processes and assesses the sector s compliance with the industrial water policy under different scenarios considering potential future policy and technological changes the results show that future energy plans could conflict with the industrial water policy but the amount of water used in the energy sector is highly dependant on technology choices especially for power plant cooling high electricity demand in the future is expected to be met mainly by coal and nuclear power and planned inland development of nuclear power presents a new source of freshwater demand taking a holistic view of energy and water for energy enables the identification of co benefits and trade offs between energy and water policies that can facilitate the development of more compatible and sustainable energy and water plans

can china afford to commit itself an emissions cap an economic and political analysis as the world s second largest carbon emitter china has long been criticised as a free rider enjoying benefits from other countries efforts to abate greenhouse gas emissions but not taking due responsibilities of its own china has been singled out as one of the major targets at the subsequent negotiations after the kyoto curtain had fallen by analysing the historical contributions of inter fuel switching energy conservation economic growth and population expansion to china s co2 emissions during the period 1980 1997 this article first demonstrates that the above criticism cannot hold its ground next we analyse what the economic effects would be if china s carbon emissions in 2010 were cut by 20 and 30 respectively relative to the baseline we found that china s gnp losses under the two less restrictive carbon limits are in the same range as the often reported estimates for industrialised countries under very restrictive carbon limits then the article envisions some efforts and commitments that could be expected from china until its per capita income catches up with the level of middle developed countries by emphasising the win win strategies these efforts and commitments could be unlikely to severely jeopardise china s economic development and at the same time would give the country more leverage at the post kyoto climate change negotiations finally the article is concluded with the argument that combating global climate change is in china s interest it will be beneficial to a more sustainable development of the chinese economy as well as to the global climate

income risk the tax benefit system and the demand for children because children represent an irreversible commitment parents might hedge against higher income risk by having fewer children we show that under plausible assumptions recent increases in income risk might have reduced prudent parents desired fertility responses to this via the tax benefit system are considered introducing an expected revenue neutral transfer cum child benefit system under proportional taxation which lets the government share the household s income risk increases desired fertility for parents who would choose to have small families in this system s absence pound for pound the targeted child benefit enhances fertility more than the lump sum transfer

fertility and the tax benefit system a reconsideration of the theory of family taxation the author examines the simultaneous nature of the decision to have children the decision to spend money on them and the decision to seek employment it will be argued that the children income trade off emphasised by the present paper is more relevant to most family decisions than the income leisure trade off on which much of the policy debate has been centred in order to do that we shall bring together the recently developed economic theory of the family or new home economics with the microeconomic branch of the theory of public finance a model of family choice is developed the main message of the present paper is that if as the evidence suggests parents have some control over the number of children they put into the world then the effect of taxes and subsidies on the familys allocation of time and money will be generally weaker and in some respects the opposite of what it would be if the number of children were physiologically constrained or exogenously given another is that if parents derive utility from having children this has to be taken into account in any welfare calculation fertility may thus affect the design of optimal policy in two ways indirectly through its effect on market behaviour and directly through its effect on welfare excerpt

profiles of fertility labour supply and wages of married women a complete life cycle model of all the major economic and demographic events in the postwar united states period the trends in fertility and female labour supply stand out as among the most dramatic fertility rates after their depression lows rose unexpectedly after world war ii far more than was anticipated as an adjustment to the war and continued to rise until the late 1950 s and early 1960 s when they again took an unexpected turn downward all the way to today s historical lows female labour force participation rates continuing their historical climb grew throughout the postwar period at an increasing pace by 4 percentage points during the 1950 s by 5 percentage points during the 1960 s and by 8 percentage points during the 1970 s these two trends are of course closely related for most married women have traditionally spent at least some minimal time out of the labour force while caring for their own children thus for example the slower growth rate of labour force participation rates in the 1950 s is probably connected with the higher fertility rates in that period in this paper a complete model of female labour supply and fertility choice is constructed and estimated the model is more complete than previous models in several respects first labour supply and fertility decisions are modelled as completely joint in the same sense as the consumption of two goods is joint second both are modelled as life cycle decisions that is as decisions regarding sequences of labour supply and fertility events rather than levels of the same hence the timing of both is important third the life cycle path of wage rates is made endogenous to the model given a wage function showing the effect of work experience on future wages the path of wages is determined automatically by the chosen path of labour supply which in turn is related to fertility decisions that require some period of non work econometrically the three profiles for labour supply fertility and wages are estimated with a full information maximum likelihood technique that solves several econometric problems such as the problem of heterogeneity of tastes the selectivity problem of missing wage rates for non workers and the problem of simultaneous equations bias the value of constructing a complete model is best seen by briefly reviewing past work in this area the modern literature in the area is based upon the work of becker

factors governing the development of high tech industry agglomerations a tale of three cities glasmeier a 1988 factors governing the development of high tech industry agglomerations a tale of three cities reg studies 22 287 301 high tech industries are thought to precipitate structural change in local economies through the creation of backward and forward linkages and new firm spinoffs case studies of high tech firms and products indicate interindustry linkage development is closely associated with product type and organizational structure of firms three product configurations one of a kind customized and standardized generate differing levels of linkage and spinoff potential firms producing customized products with highly variable input structures and established subcontracting relationships are more amenable to linkage and spinoff creation than firms producing one of a kind or standardized products the potential for linked industry development is further diluted because the spatial expansion path of high tech firms has been through the creation of technical branch plants which a

analysis of the economic impact of different chinese climate policy options based on a cge model incorporating endogenous technological change abatement cost is the main concern for climate change mitigation and the key factor for mitigation cost is technological change this study established an integrated economic energy environmental dynamic computable general equilibrium cge model representing endogenous technological change for china s climate change policy analysis this study analyzed and compared the economic impact of different approaches to mitigation commitments as well as the potential role of technological change in the formulation of mitigation targets and commitments taking into account china s climate policy making needs based on the current international climate negotiation process the results show that absolute emission limits similar to the kyoto protocol will seriously impede the future economic development of china while the impact of an 80 reduction in carbon intensity forecast for 2050 based on the 2005 level is relatively small technological change can promote economic growth improve energy efficiency and reduce carbon intensity per unit of output through the substitution of production factors consequently it can reduce marginal abatement cost and related gdp loss by mitigation at the same time it can increase mitigation potentials and extend the emission reduction amount showing that consideration of the impact of technological change when deciding the emission reduction targets is necessary

interprovincial migration and the stringency of energy policy in china the authors thank eni s p a icf international shell international limited and the french development agency afd founding sponsors of the china energy and climate project we also gratefully acknowledge the support of the energy information administration at the u s department of energy we are also thankful for support provided by the ministry of science and technology of china the national development and reform commission and rio tinto china we further gratefully acknowledge the financial suppo rt for this work provided by the mit joint program on the science and policy of global change through a consortium of industrial sponsors and federal grants this work is also supported by the doe integrated assessment grant de fg02 94er61937

synergizing china s energy and carbon mitigation goals general equilibrium modeling and policy assessment abstract in this work we enrich the technical details of the energy sector by extending the conventional framework of computable general equilibrium cge modeling and we take into account uncertainty regarding fossil fueled technologies and endogenous nonfossil energy technological change which provides us with formidable benefits to explore the policy synergy of china s multiple energy development and carbon control targets we find that carbon pricing policy plays a consistently negative role in economic growth while the economic impacts of nonfossil investment incentives differ in their policy stringency compared to energy intensity reduction goals that could be easily attained given the baseline effort achieving carbon peaking targets may be relatively difficult without additional policy intervention and the policy efforts required to reach energy consumption control targets in 2030 and nonfossil energy development targets in 2050 are even stricter this research also identifies significant policy effect differences in carbon pricing and nonfossil investment incentives

synergetic effects of water and climate policy on energy water nexus in china a computable general equilibrium analysis abstract a unified policy framework for energy and water would be beneficial considering the high interdependence of the two resources in china in this paper a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model is established to examine the existence of synergetic effects within water fee policy and energy related climate policy i e carbon tax and provide insights for chinese integrative policy making the results show that water fee can contribute to industrial water conservation whereas its effect is limited under current water fee level the adoption of a carbon tax in addition to it might further improve its water saving benefits furthermore water fee can also promote the enhancement of china s emission reduction goal and a higher carbon tax and water fee rate can achieve greater emission reduction effects at this point the synergetic spillover effects that water conservation benefits will be achieved simultaneously via the transition of industry into a more low carbon form is critical for elaborating an effective strategy of environmental policy besides our results suggest that giving priority to renewable power is regarded as the silver bullet to address the water and emission constraints on energy system as it can optimize the water conservation benefits of emission reduction

exploring the impacts of a carbon tax on the chinese economy using a cge model with a detailed disaggregation of energy sectors abstract this paper applies a computable general equilibrium model to investigate the impacts of a carbon tax on china s economy and carbon emissions based on china s 2010 input output table to obtain robust simulation results we further disaggregate the energy sectors into eight departments according to energy use characteristics the empirical results indicate that a moderate carbon tax would significantly reduce carbon emissions and fossil fuel energy consumption and slightly reduce the pace of economic growth however a large carbon tax has a significantly negative impact on china s economy and social welfare moreover a large carbon tax would entail marked price changes in china of the fossil fuels in use reducing coal consumption would have the greatest impact on reducing carbon emissions and the ad valorem duty rate for coal would be the highest after levying a carbon tax because it has the highest carbon emission coefficient therefore china should strive to promote clean coal technology which may be crucial to reducing carbon emissions moreover levying a carbon tax would improve the use of clean energy which would be an effective means of reducing carbon emissions therefore the chinese government should formulate the regulations for and pass a carbon tax as early as possible to achieve its carbon emission abatement target and further contribute to mitigating climate change

the impacts of china s household consumption expenditure patterns on energy demand and carbon emissions towards 2050 abstract this paper explores how china s household consumption patterns over the period 2005 2050 influence the total energy demand and carbon dioxide co2 emissions in two baseline scenarios and how it influences carbon prices as well as the economic cost in the corresponding carbon mitigation scenarios to this end we first put forward two possible household consumption expenditure patterns up to 2050 using the working leser model taking into account total expenditure increase and urbanization for comparison both expenditure patterns are then incorporated in a hybrid recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model the results reveal that as income level increases in the coming decades the direct and indirect household energy requirements and co2 emissions would rise drastically when household expenditure shifts from material products and transport to service oriented goods around 21 000 mtce 1 of primary energy and 45 billion tons of co2 emissions would be saved over the 45 year period from 2005 to 2050 moreover carbon prices in the dematerialized mitigation scenario would fall by 13 in 2050 thus reducing the economic cost

children as income producing assets the case of teen illegitimacy and government transfers this paper develops a classical model of the teen fertility decision in the presence of public income transfers the theoretical model predicts that welfare payments will encourage fertility holding constant other economic opportunities and that better economic opportunities will discourage fertility considering the possible simultaneity of illegitimacy rates and benefit levels due to the collective choice process the authors confirm the theoretical models predictions with state level data from 1980 through 1990 the authors find that including fixed effects in the regression to control for unobserved differences between states does not sufficiently control for endogeneity after controlling for endogeneity real welfare benefits are strongly and robustly related to teen illegitimacy the point estimates of the elasticity with respect to changes in the illegitimacy rate are around 1 3 for white teens and 2 1 for black teens real wages for women with a high school education or less are negatively related to teen illegitimacy for white teens with an elasticity of around 0 4 finally male wages appear to have little effect on the illegitimacy rate for white teens but appear negatively correlated with the illegitimacy rate for black teens in some model specifications authors

the fertility effect of dependent tax exemptions estimates for the united states the effect of the dependent tax exemption on the fertility rate in the united states is estimated the estimation is an improvement on previous work in that a non linear specification is used to better capture the shape of the demand for children it is found that the marginal effect of the dependent exemption decreases with the level of the exemption this suggests that although subsidies for childbearing will increase fertility it becomes increasingly difficult for countries to increase fertility through this type of scheme

human capital and the time profile of human fertility this is a 1st attempt at an explicitly intertemporal microeconomic theory of the distribution of births over a womans fertile period the main results are that 1 the optimal time profile will satisfy the hotelling rule for the depletion of a natural resource in the present case of the womens stock of human capital at marriage and 2 under certain simplifying assumptions women with high initial endowments of human capital will have all their children in the 1st part of married life and then return to full time employment while women with low initial endowments will spread childbearing more evenly over the fertile period it must also be pointed out that the characteristics of the optimal fertility profile might be different if utility depended directly on the profile itself e g if the quality of children increased with the interval between the pregnancies as assumed in the literature on birth spacing authors modified

demographic variables in demand analysis in this paper the authors discuss five procedures for incorporating demographic variables into theoretically plausible demand systems translating scaling and the gorman reverse gorman and implicit prais houthakker procedures these five procedures are used to incorporate a single demographic variable the number of children in a household into the generalized ces demand system using household budget data for the united kingdom for the period 1966 1972 excerpt

brown backstops versus the green paradox abstract anticipated climate policies are ineffective when fossil fuel owners respond by shifting supply intertemporally the green paradox this mechanism relies crucially on the exhaustibility of fossil fuels we analyze the effect of anticipated climate policies on emissions in a simple model with two fossil fuels one scarce and dirty e g oil the other abundant and dirtier e g coal we derive conditions for a green orthodox anticipated climate policies may reduce current emissions the model can also be used to analyze spatial carbon leakage calibrations suggest that intertemporal carbon leakage from 0 to 8 is a relatively minor concern

the changing corporate head office and its spatial implications aksoy a and marshall n 1992 the changing corporate head office and its spatial implications reg studies 26 149 162 a substantial body of literature suggests that during the 1980s large firms reorganized in response to volatility in product markets and in a search for new competitive advantage using evidence from a survey of twenty large firm head offices in great britain this paper examines the extent of large firm reorganization and its impact on regional economies it shows that associated with corporate restructuring employment in large firm head offices has declined substantially headquarters functions have been delegated to operating companies and contracting out has increased in a review of the geographical consequences of these changes which goes beyond the discussion of high tech complexes and industrial districts the paper suggests that reorganization is modifying rather than transforming patterns of spatial development in britain corporate restructuring is encouraging the dec

factories or warehouses a welsh perspective on japanese transplant manufacturing munday m morris j and wilkinson b 1995 factories or warehouses a welsh perspective on japanese transplant manufacturing reg studies 29 1 17 critics of japanese direct manufacturing investment have argued that the japanese transplant manufacturing sector tms represents an attempt to circumvent trade barriers rather than a genuine globalization of japanese capital and that host regions will find themselves with warehouses or low value added final assembly plants rather than fully integrated manufacturing operations which will contribute significantly to the development of the local economy this paper presents a detailed study of the economic impact of japanese manufacturing in wales a region within the uk which has one of the highest concentrations of japanese manufacturing investment in europe it finds that there are some problems with japanese investment but although japanese companies do appear to operate their businesses in different ways to other inward investors many of these are be

the synthesis of bottom up and top down approaches to climate policy modeling electric power technologies and the cost of limiting us co2 emissions abstract in the us the bulk of co 2 abatement induced by carbon taxes comes from electric power this paper incorporates technology detail into the electricity sector of a computable general equilibrium model of the us economy to characterize electric power s technological margins of adjustment to carbon taxes and to elucidate their general equilibrium effects compared to the top down production function representation of the electricity sector the technology rich hybrid specification produces less abatement at a higher welfare cost suggesting that bottom up models do not necessarily generate lower costs of abatement than top down models this result is shown to be sensitive to the elasticity with which technologies generating capacities adjust to relative prices

the impact of a large multinational organization on a small local economy barrow m and hall m 1995 the impact of a large multinational organization on a small local economy reg studies 29 635 653 this paper is based on a research project undertaken for american express a m e x in brighton which aimed to identify the economic impact of american express on the local economy a research methodology is employed which inter alia utilizes concepts drawn from development economics notably economic linkages and enclave development adapted to the requirements of the project we use both quantitative data from the firm s payroll and suppliers databases and interview data from a variety of sources to make a judgement about the impact of the firm upon the locality we find there are both quantitative and qualitative links with the rest of the economy we try to measure both absolute and relative impacts of the firm by making use of different counter factual scenarios we find a generally beneficial effect of the firm upon the locality in contrast to a number of other st

broken chain agoa and foreign direct investment in the kenyan clothing industry drawing upon survey and interview research covering 23 of an estimated total of 35 clothing manufacturing establishments operating in kenya as well as interviews with the policy community this paper examines the local economic development impacts associated with the recent agoa prompted re birth of the clothing industry in kenya just after its recent high watermark in 2003 it provides evidence of the characteristics of these manufacturing establishments as well as evidence of the multiple and interconnected failures on the part of government parent companies agents and customers to promote the longer term sustainability of the industry as such it provides further case study evidence of africa s uniquely problematic incorporation into global commodity chains

managing electric power system transition in china abstract this research studies the low carbon transition of the electric power sector in china using a multi level perspective mlp of niches socio technical regime and landscape as well as literature on innovation systems three lines of thought on transition process are integrated in the paper to probe the possible transition pathways in china a mlp analysis is presented to understand the current niches regime and landscape of china s power sector a brief analysis on the future macroscopic socio economic transition in the process of industrialization urbanization and modernization of chinese society and its implication on power landscape are depicted to prove the urgency and magnitude of transition in china and why systematic transition management is needed five transition pathways namely reproduction transformation substitution reconfiguration de alignment re alignment and reconfiguration with their possible technology options are presented the paper goes further to propose an interactive framework for managing the transition to a low carbon energy system in china representative technology options are appraised by employing innovation theory to indicate the logic of policymaking within the framework institutional gaps in realizing the transition are also addressed the work presented in the paper will be useful in informing policy makers and other stakeholders and may provide references for power sector transition management in other countries

globalization of production and innovation how outsourcing is reshaping an advanced manufacturing area cusmano l mancusi m l and morrison a globalization of production and innovation how outsourcing is reshaping an advanced manufacturing area regional studies this paper investigates the determinants and the spatial and functional dimensions of firms outsourcing based on a large survey of manufacturing firms in lombardy italy the analysis shows that outsourcing is remarkably wide across sectors and has a clear regional dimension concerning highly skilled firms at most offshoring is still a minor fraction of the deverticalization process largely related to wider strategies of internationalization by foreign group subsidiaries at intermediate stages of the value chain the evidence suggests the regional system is inserting onto global knowledge networks but also points at the risk of branch plant effects in high technology segments cusmano l mancusi m l et morrison a la mondialisation de la production et de l innovation comment l approvisionnement a l exterieur reorganise une zone ind

assessment of china s climate commitment and non fossil energy plan towards 2020 using hybrid aim cge model china made a commitment in copenhagen to reduce its carbon dioxide emissions per unit of gdp from 40 to 45 compared with the 2005 level by 2020 and is determined to vigorously develop non fossil fuels this study analyzes the effects and impacts of policies that could help to achieve china s copenhagen commitments with a hybrid static cge model in which the electricity sector is disaggregated into 12 generation technologies four scenarios are developed including the reference scenario a the reference scenario b and two carbon constraint scenarios the results show that carbon intensity in terms of gdp will fall by 30 97 between 2005 and 2020 in the reference scenario a and will be reduced further by 7 97 if china s targeted non fossil energy development plans can be achieved in the reference scenario b however the rest of the 40 45 target must be realized by other measures such as carbon constraint it is also observed that due to carbon intensity constraints gdp loss would be from 0 032 to 0 24 compared to the reference scenario b and co2 emission reductions are due mainly to decreases in coal consumption in the electricity sector and manufacturing sector

endogenous fertility and optimal population size pareto optimality which is the standard criterion of efficiency in general equilibrium models takes population size as given and therefore cannot be directly applied to analyze the question of optimal population size the criterion then for optimal population size must be based on a more restrictive definition of optimality this paper extends peter diamonds 1965 golden golden rule growth model by assuming that individuals derive utility from their own consumptionand from their own children offspring are assumed to consume resources before reaching adulthood the authors show that the optimal steady state utility yields a higher population growth rate when it converges to the golden rule allocation they then demonstrate that a voluntary social security program in which the size of the transfer to a particular agent is directly tied to his own fertility leads the competitive allocation to be identical to the allocation corresponding to the maximum of the steady state utility of the representative individual

the influence of hymer s dissertation on the theory of foreign derect investment the great contribution of stephen hymer s seminal dissertation 1960 was to escape from the intellectual straightjacket of neoclassical type trade and financial theory and move us towards an analysis of the multinational enterprise mne based upon industrial organization theory the magnitude of this breakthrough can be put into perspective by considering the state of the art when hymer wrote twenty five years ago in 1960 the prevailing explanation of international capital movements relied exclusively upon a neoclassical financial theory of portfolio flows in this frictionless world of perfect competition with no transaction costs capital moves in response to changes in interest rate or profit differentials see carl iversen 1936 according to this arbitrage theory capital is assumed to be transacted between independent buyers and sellers that is there is no role for the mne at the time there was no separate theory of foreign direct investment fdi the work did not even ask the question of why is there fdi despite the evidence of sectoral cross investments and the existence of large mnes with intra industry trade if anything the early work on fdi focused upon the where of investment in a particular nation or industry for example dunning 1958 was chiefly interested in explaining u s fdi in britain there was little interest in understanding the reasons for the mne or the nature of its operations the pioneering conceptual insight of hymer was to break out of the arid mold of international trade and investment theory and focus attention upon the mne per se this permits us to treat fdi as a modality by which firms extend their territorial horizons abroad the unique feature of fdi is a mechanism by which the mne maintains control over productive activities outside its national boundaries that is fdi means international production in this view fdi is more than a process by which assets or claims are exchanged internationally see robert aliber 1970 1983 hymer s great insight was in focusing attention upon the mne as the institution for international production rather than international exchange until hymer articulated the process of fdi as an international extension of industrial organization theory it was not possible to understand why the mne transfers intermediate products such as knowledge or technology among its units across different nations while still retaining property rights over such assets today it is widely recognized that the theory of fdi i e international production is primarily about the transfer of nonfinancial and ownershipspecific intangible assets by the mne which needs to appropriate and control the rate of use of its internalized advantage s see rugman 1981 david teece 1981 1982 richard caves 1982 and mark casson 1983 in this paper we first acknowledge hymer s contribution to the theory of fdi and then move on to reinterpret his dissertation in the light of the modern theory of the mne we tdiscussants raymond vernon harvard university robert z aliber university of chicago paul streeten boston university

relationship between energy production and water resource utilization a panel data analysis of 31 provinces in china abstract the systematic study of the relationship between energy production and water resource utilization is crucial for china to relieve the energy water crisis and achieve sustainable use of them this work explores the causal relationship between energy production and water resource utilization in china using panel data of 31 provinces over the period 2000 2014 this study have applied a panel unit root test cointegration test vector error correction model vecm and granger causality approaches to examine the long run and short run relationship between the variables the results show that 1 there is a long run bidirectional granger causality relationship between energy production and water resources utilization but a short run unidirectional relationship between two variables i e the water resource utilization is the short run granger reason for the change in energy production 2 the increases in industrial added value population and ratio of the secondary industry value added to gdp have a positive effect on both energy production and water resource utilization 3 industrial water use will fall by about 0 12 if the rate of industrial waste water reuse increases by 1 which shows that the progress of water saving technology can reduce industrial water usage effectively our findings indicate that government should implement strict water constraint strategies and promote water conservation technology for the sustainable development of energy and water resources in china

global strategies multinational subsidiary roles and economic impact in scotland young s hood n and dunlop s 1988 global strategies multinational subsidiary roles and economic impact in scotland reg studies 22 487 497 this paper considers in a preliminary way the influence of mne global strategies on foreign subsidiary roles in scotland and from this some of the economic effects on the scottish economy are highlighted the study is based on a postal survey of mne subsidiaries in scotland the responses being analysed using the statistical techniques of cluster analysis and discriminant analysis despite the weaknesses of the former technique in particular the preliminary findings suggest substantial benefits to the economy from the one third of affiliates in the strategic independent product specialist categories as compared with the conventional branch plants rationalized manufacturers and miniature replica subsidiaries young s hood n et dunlop s 1988 strategies globales role des filiales des societes multi nationales et impact economique en ecosse

bequests and the size of population when population is endogenous the consequences of interfamily bequests and endogenous population size for optimal and competitive population sizes and bequests are explored when individuals utility is a function of own consumption the number of children and the welfare of their children when a bequest benefits each member of a second generation family we show that competition leads to underprovision for future generations under a separability assumption the number of children is also shown to be too large

energy caps alternative climate policy instruments for china abstract decoupling fossil energy demand from economic growth is crucial for china s sustainable development especially for addressing severe local air pollution and global climate change an absolute cap on coal or fossil fuel consumption has been proposed as a means to support the country s energy and climate policy objectives we evaluate potential energy cap designs that differ in terms of target fuel point of control and national versus regional allowance trading using a global numerical general equilibrium model that separately represents 30 provinces in china first we simulate a coal cap and find that relative to a cap on all fossil fuels it is significantly more costly and results in high localized welfare losses second we compare fossil energy cap designs and find that a national cap on downstream fossil energy use with allowance trading across provinces is the most cost effective third we find that a national fossil energy cap with trading is nearly as cost effective as a national co2 emissions trading system that penalizes energy use based on carbon content as a fossil energy cap builds on existing institutions in china it offers a viable intermediate step toward a full fledged co2 emissions trading system

financial incentives and fertility using panel data on over 300 000 israeli women from 1999 to 2005 we exploit variation in israel s child subsidy to identify the impact of changes in the price of a marginal child on fertility we find a positive statistically significant and economically meaningful price effect on overall fertility and consistent with becker 1960 and becker and tomes 1976 a small effect of income on fertility which is negative at low and positive at high income levels we also find a price effect on fertility among older women suggesting that part of the overall effect is due to a reduction in total fertility

small firm growth in the uk regions 1994 1997 towards an explanatory framework h art m and m c g uinness s 2003 small firm growth in the uk regions 1994 1997 towards an explanatory framework reg studies 37 109 122 this paper examines the scale of regional variations in small firm growth in the united kingdom in manufacturing and services over the period 1994 97 an attempt is made to develop a theoretical framework to explain these variations and to provide an empirical test with the use of multivariate techniques the results demonstrate that particularly for the service sector the nature of the external business environment provides an important part of the explanation of the observed spatial variations in small firm growth for the period 1994 97 there were quite distinct processes at work in determining the spatial variation in growth rates for small firms in the manufacturing and service sectors this finding has important implications for interventions at regional and national level designed to enhance the fortunes of the small firms the manufacturing equation f

fertility taxation and family policy historically there is clear evidence of an inverse relationship between female labour supply and fertility however the relationship across countries is now positive countries like germany and italy with the lowest fertility also have the lowest female participation rates this paper analyses the extent to which this can be explained by public policy in particular taxation and the system of child support the results suggest that countries which have individual rather than joint taxation and which support families through child care facilities rather than child payments are likely to have both higher female labour supply and higher fertility

regulation by prices quantities or both a review of instrument choice choosing appropriate policy instruments is an important part of successful regulation once objectives are agreed and suitable targets adopted policy makers can employ command and control regulation and or economic instruments and choose between fixing a price or a quantity this paper examines the relative advantages of price quantity and hybrid instruments according to their efficiency under uncertainty the trade off between credible commitment and flexibility implementation international considerations and political economy various illustrations of the theory are provided with two detailed applications to climate change and transport policy specifically congestion and safety pricing

decarbonisation perspectives for the polish economy abstract in the coming decades the energy sector in poland will undergo a substantial transition towards low carbon usage which will have a predominant impact on the economy several modernization scenarios for energy policy are currently being discussed by the government and not yet concluded the main objective of this paper is to provide a tool that allows to simulate such scenarios and to show the impact of decarbonisation on the whole economy we propose an intertemporal hybrid general equilibrium modeling that incorporates energy technologies bottom up approach directly into a macroeconomic structure top down approach by accounting for wide adjustments in the economy while controlling for all major constraints the model gives a unique and detailed insight into the future shape of the energy sector and prospects of low carbon economy in poland our simulation results suggest that there are no free lunches no realistic energy mix allows to achieve sustainable positive economic growth when considerable emission reduction is to be achieved the price on co2 will exceed eur 100 for 30 emission reduction with respect to business as usual scenario gradual phase out of coal requires focusing on biomass technology the first best nuclear and wind power the second best

exploring the regional distribution of inbound foreign direct investment in the uk in theory and practice evidence from a five region study fallon g and cook m exploring the regional distribution of inbound foreign direct investment in the uk in theory and practice evidence from a five region study regional studies this paper examines the main factors that attract inbound foreign direct investment fdi at the uk regional level using econometric data from five sample uk regions the south east the west midlands the north west wales and scotland broadly representing the country s regional economic divide the findings indicate that regional and national but not european union level factors linked to several underlying strategic determinants help determine the regional distribution of inbound foreign direct investment and its inter regional variation the paper concludes that governmental policy makers at the national and regional levels can have an important role to play in drawing targeted foreign direct investment inflows to the uk regions fallon g et cook m examiner la distribution regionale de l ide au royaume uni en the

optimal intergenerational redistribution in a two country model with endogenous fertility we analyze a model with two countries that are linked by anintegrated capital market fertility and thus population growth isendogenously determined by households our analysis proceeds inthree steps first we characterize an optimal intertemporal andinterregional allocation in a model with endogenous fertility andtwo countries second we look for an institution supporting theoptimal allocation it turns out that in general a decentralizedequilibrium is inefficient national public pension systems withbenefits that are related to the number of children implements theoptimal allocation this provides a justification for governmentinterventions beyond its role as a night watchman third weanalyze whether national governments have the right incentives toimplement the optimal system it turns out that every nationalgovernment has an incentive to deviate from the optimal structureand to shift part of the burden to the other country policyimplications for the institutional arrangements within the europeanunion are discussed

aligning renewable energy targets with carbon emissions trading to achieve china s indcs a general equilibrium assessment abstract this study evaluates the economic impact of achieving china s intended nationally determined contributions indcs through emissions trading scheme ets and renewable energy policy using a computable general equilibrium cge model we explored the behavior of different sectors in the carbon market carbon trade amount carbon price and the economic impact of an emissions cap and trade on the employment and gdp the results demonstrate that the electricity and aviation sectors have relatively higher mitigation costs and tend to be the main buyers of the carbon credits whereas chemicals nonmetal production iron and steel paper and other manufacturing sectors have relatively lower mitigation costs and tend to be the main sellers carbon trading price and market scale are closely related to various factors such as the emissions quota allocation scheme among sectors coverage of participating sectors and the level of renewable energy development emission trading is also confirmed to be an economically efficient approach that contributes to the achievement of emission reduction targets with less economic cost in order to make full use of this approach policy maker should assign an appropriate emissions quota allocation scheme extend coverage of various sectors and promote the expansion of low carbon technologies such as renewable energy

supply chains material linkage and regional development the importance of economic linkage to regional development has been implicit in the variety of approaches that have been taken to analysing the development process despite this no mechanism exists which allows a general assessment of regional supply networks the paper provides one approach to this type of evaluation in uk regions focusing on the north west of england and taking uk input output tables as the basis of analysis sectoral linkages with supply potential are identified and their magnitude estimated the paper reveals both the scope for extending material linkages and generating employment in this region of the uk as well as confirming the important role played by manufacturing industries in intermediate supply chains

a household production specification of demographic variables in demand analysis empirical investigations into the expenditure and time allocation decisions of households usually allow the variation in demographic characteristics across households in particular the number and ages of dependent children to affect these decisions the motivation for allowing such demographic effects is two fold first it permits the researcher to pool observations from households with differing demographic characteristics secondly it has been argued that it allows the researcher to construct an index normally called an equivalence scale to show the full income required by a household with some given composition to attain the same level of utility as some reference household and hence permits comparisons of welfare levels across households there are two areas of controversy surrounding this literature which directly relate to its two sources of motivation first what is the appropriate demographic specification second can the estimated parameters be used to undertake welfare comparisons a series of demand studies including barten 1964 blundell 1980 blundell and walker 1982 gorman 1976 muellbauer 1974 1977 hurd and pencavel 1981 pollak and wales 1978 1981 and ray 1983 have attempted to answer the first problem by considering the current allocation of goods and in some cases household time conditional on demographic structure this literature treats demographic variables as exogenous whereas in contrast the neoclassical fertility literature see for example the contributions in schultz 1973 treats the numbers and ages of children as endogenous nonmarket goods within a lifecycle optimising framework the second problem has been raised by pollak and wales 1979 who argue convincingly whether household composition is the result of endogenous decisions or not it is impossible to compare the welfare of households with different compositions using the results of empirical demand analysis since market decisions do not reveal how the households feel about the presence or absence of children thus estimated equivalence scales are necessarily based on the households preferences conditional on their demographic compositions the object of this paper is to suggest a new approach to the problem of demographic specification and to show that this approach both highlights the problem of making welfare comparisons and at least in part resolves it