bank consolidation and the dynamics of consumer loan interest rates this paper analyzes interest rates quoted by individual banks for personal and automobile loans in 10 cities personal loan rates are higher in concentrated markets and banks involved in mergers reduce personal rates relative to their competitors prior to the merger s completion this is consistent with mergers changing the size structure of personal loan markets and merger participants desire to gain regulatory approval auto rates are unaffected by local concentration and mergers suggesting that their market is nationwide rates for both loan types respond asymmetrically to changes in treasury rates being more sensitive to a rise than a fall

aging and productivity among economists economists productivity over their careers and as measured by publication in leading journals declines very sharply with age there is no difference by age in the probability that an article submitted to a leading journal will be accepted rates of declining productivity are no greater among the very top publishers than among others and the probability of acceptance is increasingly related to the author s quality rather than the author s age

bank risk taking securitization supervision and low interest rates evidence from the euro area and the u s lending standards using a unique dataset of the euro area and the u s bank lending standards we find that low monetary policy short term interest rates soften standards for household and corporate loans this softening especially for mortgages is amplified by securitization activity weak supervision for bank capital and low monetary policy rates for an extended period conversely low long term interest rates do not soften lending standards finally countries with softer lending standards before the crisis related to negative taylor rule residuals experienced a worse economic performance afterward these results help shed light on the origins of the crisis and have important policy implications the author 2011 published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies all rights reserved for permissions please e mail journals permissions oup com oxford university press

unit root tests and the statistical pitfalls of seasonal adjustment the case of u s postwar real gross national product unit root tests applied to the postwar seasonally adjusted quarterly gross national product series strongly support the null hypothesis of the presence of a unit root in the data generating process evidence reported here with seasonally unadjusted data is far less conclusive it is explained why seasonal adjustment procedures may alter the outcome of conventional tests

the academic analysis of the 2008 financial crisis round 1 academics responded to the challenges posed by the 2008 financial crisis with a flurry of studies this collection of articles is just the academic community s first look into it the articles begin with an examination at the last national housing price crash the great depression of the 1930s this is followed by articles looking at the current mortgage market and how it behaved did modern innovations reflect or add to the downturn the next set of papers examines how non financial firms were impacted by the crash to what degree did credit worthy firms nevertheless find themselves without access to capital the papers then end with a look into how the banking sector itself fared throughout this period the author 2011 published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies all rights reserved for permissions please e mail journals permissions oup com oxford university press

location and competition in retail banking abstract we investigate the impact of banking deregulation during the 1990s on consumer welfare we estimate a spatial model of consumer demand for retail bank deposits that explicitly accounts for consumer disutility from distance traveled this is important given the substantial changes in banks branch networks observed in the data our model indicates that cross price elasticities between banks whose branches are close to consumers close banks are larger than those between far banks and more than double the cross price elasticity of close banks with respect to far banks we distinguish between thrifts and other banks and find that within thrift competitive effects are stronger than within bank effects or those between thrifts and banks we use our estimates to predict the effect of changes in market structure on consumer welfare following the branching deregulation of the riegle neal act of 1994 our results indicate that the median household gained around 60 per year from the changes approximately two thirds of the gains come from within market changes in market structure the gains were greater in markets with high initial numbers of banks than elsewhere

when does the prime rate change abstract we study the frequency of prime rate changes we model the prime rate as a time series variable that can be changed only at some cost this yields a logit model in which the probability of a prime rate change is a function of market variables we test this model using data from a micro data set that gives the dating of prime rate changes the results indicate that adjustment costs are important to the prime rate adjustment process and that changes in exogenous variables have a significantly larger effect on the probability of a prime rate increase than decrease

the effect on competition of banking sector consolidation following the financial crisis of 2008 abstract consolidation of the spanish banking sector after the financial crisis of 2008 raises concerns about potential negative effects on competition i use structural econometric methods to examine these anti competitive concerns in the spanish mortgage market i estimate a mixed logit model of mortgage demand and recover bank level cost information with a strategic model of price competition counterfactual experiments reveal that the observed increase in concentration is associated only with small variations in mortgage rates and market shares staying far from collusive levels this moderate change in industry conduct implies a small direct effect of consolidation on bank exposures to mortgage risk

the price concentration relationship in banking the commonly observed positive correlation between market concentration and profitability may be explained by noncompetitive pricing behavior as argued by the structure performance hypothesis or by the greater efficiency of firms with dominant market shares as argued by the efficient structure hypothesis by examining the price concentration relationship instead of the profit concentration relationship this paper tests the structure performance hypothesis in a manner that excludes the efficient structure hypothesis as an alternative explanation of the results the results strongly support the structure performance hypothesis and are robust with respect to model specification measurement of concentration and econometric technique copyright 1989 by mit press

bank mergers and crime the real and social effects of credit market competition using a unique sample of commercial loans and mergers between large banks we provide micro level within county evidence linking credit conditions to economic development and find a spillover effect on crime neighborhoods that experience more bank mergers are subject to higher interest rates diminished local construction lower prices an influx of poorer households and higher property crime in subsequent years the elasticity of property crime with respect to merger induced banking concentration is 0 18 we show that these results are not likely due to reverse causation and confirm the central findings using state branching deregulation to instrument for bank competition we examine the real and social impact of local credit competition by documenting a link between the competitiveness of the local banking market credit conditions urban development and crime several recent studies peek and rosengren 2000 cetorelli and gambera 2001 klein peek and rosengren 2002 and burgess and pande 2003 tie credit market imperfections to diminished real economic activity and growth other studies connect the economic environment to property crime freeman 1999 levitt 2001 raphael and winter ebmer 2001 and nilsson 2004 it is reasonable to hypothesize therefore that reductions in bank competition may lead to economic decline and subsequently increases in property crime we empirically investigate the effects of bank consolidation and increased market power on credit availability and real activity using a unique sample of commercial loans and mergers between large banks in the 1990s we provide micro level evidence that garmaise is from the ucla anderson school and moskowitz is from the graduate school of business university of chicago and nber we have benefited from the suggestions and comments of tony bernardo marianne bertrand phillip bond doug diamond mark duggan eugene fama

the competitive dynamics of geographic deregulation in banking implications for productive efficiency deregulation of geographic restrictions in banking over the past 20 years has intensified both potential and actual competition in the industry the accumulating empirical evidence suggests that potential efficiency gains associated with consolidating banks are often not realized we evaluate the impact of this increased competition on the productive efficiency of nonmerging banks confronted with new entry in their local markets and find that the incumbent banks respond by improving cost efficiency thus studies evaluating the impact of bank mergers on the efficiency of the combining parties alone may be overlooking the most significant welfare enhancing aspect of merger activity

exports inflation and growth abstract this article seeks to identify some of the main determinants of exports and economic growth in cross sectional data from the world bank covering 160 countries for 1985 94 first the linkages between the propensity to export and population per capita income agriculture primary exports and inflation are studied by statistical methods then the relationship between economic growth and some of the above mentioned determinants of exports as well as investment are scrutinized the same way the main conclusion is that in the period under review high inflation and an abundance of natural resources tended to be associated with low exports and slow growth

buffer stock money interpreting short run dynamics using long run restrictions time series techniques are used to assess the quantitative importance of buffer stock money the short run response of real money holdings to nominal money supply shocks the empirical model a vector autoregression of real and nominal money balances captures general dynamic properties of the time series but requires theoretical restrictions for sensible interpretation the authors just identify the system by imposing a long run neutrality restriction nominal money shocks have no permanent effects on real money they find that buffer stock effects play an important role in the evolution of real m1 in the short run the evidence for m2 is less conclusive copyright 1994 by ohio state university press

bank commercial loan markets and the role of market structure evidence from surveys of commercial lending abstract this paper seeks to test two tenets that underlie the current practice of antitrust analysis in banking the first is the view that bank commercial loan markets are local in nature and the second is the view that banks in more concentrated markets are more likely to engage in some form of noncompetitive behavior tests of both of these tenets are conducted using an extensive set of loan specific survey information not previously employed to address these issues results consistent with the existence of local banking markets and the dominance of competitive differences as an explanation for observed differences in loan rates are found

market structure and the nature of price rigidity evidence from the market for consumer deposits panel data on consumer bank deposit interest rates reveal asymmetric impacts of market concentration on the dynamic adjustment of prices to shocks banks in concentrated markets are slower to raise interest rates on deposits in response to rising market interest rates but are faster to reduce them in response to declining market interest rates thus banks with market power skim off surplus on movements in both directions since deposit interest rates are inversely related to the price charged by banks for deposits the results suggest that downward price rigidity and upward price flexibility are a consequence of market concentration

inflation growth and external debt a view of the landscape this paper reconsiders the relationship between inflation economic growth and external debt and discusses various channels through which a increased inflation tends to reduce growth and raise foreign indebtedness over time and b declining growth tends to amplify both inflation and debt based on a simple model of the simultaneous determination of inflation and growth a non parametric statistical comparison of the growth record and external indebtedness of high and low inflation economies reveals significantly slower growth and greater debts in the high inflation economies since 1973 the observed growth differential indicates that the real costs of inflation over time may be high for individual countries as well as for the world economy as a whole this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

the paradox of plenty a meta analysis since sachs and warner s seminal article in 1995 numerous studies have addressed the link between natural resources and economic growth although the resource curse effect was commonly accepted at first many articles have challenged its existence and the results found in the literature are ambiguous in this paper we aim to quantitatively review this literature in order to i identify the sources of heterogeneity and ii assess the impact of natural resources on economic growth a meta analysis is performed on 69 empirical studies on the resource curse totaling 1 419 estimates our findings show that i only developing countries suffer from the resource curse although it is soft ii the way natural resources are taken into account is crucial to understand the heterogeneity found in the literature iii the negative impact of the volatility of the terms of trade on growth should be qualified an additional mra performed on indirect effects size also indicate that when institutions are at their best level the resource curse disappears and may be turned into a blessing

prices rise faster than they fall output prices tend to respond faster to input increases than to decreases this tendency is found in more than two of every three markets examined it is found as frequently in producer goods markets as in consumer goods markets in both kinds of markets the asymmetric response to cost shocks is substantial and durable on average the immediate response to a positive cost shock is at least twice the response to a negative shock and that difference is sustained for at least five to eight months unlike past studies which documented similar asymmetries in selected markets gasoline agricultural products etc this one uses large samples of diverse products 77 consumer and 165 producer goods accordingly the results suggest a gap in an essential part of economic theory as a start on filling this gap the study finds no asymmetry in the resonse of an individual decision maker a supermarket chain to its costs but it finds above average asymmetry where a cost shock is filtered through a fragmented w

retail gasoline price dynamics and local market power using monthly data from the 48 contiguous states except nevada for the 1988 2002 period it is shown that retail gasoline prices respond faster to wholesale price increases than to equivalent wholesale price decreases moreover markets with high average retail wholesale margins experience a slower adjustment and a more asymmetric response since gasoline is the only variable input average margins in a state likely reflect the degree of retail market power this suggests that sticky prices and response asymmetries in the gasoline market are at least partially a consequence of retail market power

deposit spreads and the welfare cost of inflation abstract high nominal interest rates are associated with high deposit spreads which is consistent with a model where banks have monopoly power and currency and deposits are substitutes therefore higher interest rates raise the implicit price of banking services increase bank profits and attract entry into the banking sector taking these effects into account a one percentage point increase in inflation has a welfare cost of 0 083 of gdp 6 7 times higher than traditional estimates

evidence on the benefits of alternative mortgage products alternative mortgage products have been identified by many as culprits in the financial crisis however because of their lower initial mortgage payments relative to loan amount they may be a valuable tool for households that expect higher and more certain future labor income and that wish to smooth consumption over the life cycle using u k household level panel data this paper provides evidence in support of this hypothesis and highlights other important benefits of alternative mortgages including portfolio diversification tax benefits and a reduction in the transaction costs incurred in housing transactions

evaluating the performance of merger simulation evidence from the u s airline industry abstract this paper uses merger simulations to predict postmerger prices for five airline mergers from the 1980s and compares these predictions with observed postmerger prices i find that standard simulation methods which measure the effect of the change in ownership on unilateral pricing incentives do not generally provide an accurate forecast by incorporating postmerger information into the model i measure the relative importance of other factors that also contributed to the observed price changes the results indicate that the unexplained component of the price change is largely accounted for by supply side effects i conclude that deviations from the assumed model of firm conduct play an important role in accounting for the differences between the predicted and observed price changes this conclusion suggests that the predictive performance of merger simulation would benefit if more flexible models of firm conduct were incorporated into the methodology

demand for cash balances in germany theoretical underpinnings and empirical evidence the purpose of this paper is to develop and test a cash in advance model of an open economy following the contribution of bohn 1991 and using intertemporal balance of payments theory we set up a currency demand function with real consumption expenditure the foreign interest rate and exchange rate expectations as the core explaining variables we test the model with the aid of the econometric techniques proposed by hylleberg engle granger and yoo 1990 and engle granger hylleberg and lee 1993 relying on quarterly seasonally unadjusted data for germany in the period 1960 1 to 1993 4 the findings reported in the paper support the suggestions made by the theoretical model

stabilization and growth in transition economies the early experience this paper analyzes the growth and stabilization experience in 26 transition economies in eastern europe the former soviet union and mongolia for the period 1989 1994 inflation rates have declined significantly in most countries following an inflation stabilization program growth resumes after stabilization occurs typically with a lag of about two years reducing inflation thus appears to be a precondition for growth an econometric analysis of the short run determinants of inflation and growth illustrates the key roles of fixed exchange rates improved fiscal balances and structural reforms in spurring growth and lowering inflation and confirms that inflation stabilization programs have been beneficial for growth even after controlling for structural reforms

directly unproductive profit seeking dup activities this paper propses directly unproductive profit seeking dup activities as a general concept that embraces a wide range of recently analyzed economic activities including the subset of rent seeking activities considered by krueger it then proceeds to provide a synthesis and generalization of the welfare theoretic analysis of such activities by developing a fourfold categorization of cases depending on the levels of distortions before and after the dup activity thus a unification and overview of the subject are achieved

do substantial horizontal mergers generate significant price effects evidence from the banking industry this study examines the price effects of recent us bank mergers that substantially increased local market concentration using the deposit interest rates that banks offer their customers as our price measure we find that over the 1991 94 time period deposit rates offered by participants in substantial horizontal mergers and their local market rivals declined by a greater percentage than did deposit rates offered by banks not operating in markets in which such mergers took place we interpret our results as evidence that these mergers led to increased market power

output gains from economic stabilization by driving a wedge between the marginal returns to real and financial capital inflation distorts production the elimination of this distortion increases both the level and rate of growth of output first increased price stability improves the utilization of capital and this increases the full employment level of output in the long run even though output decreases initially second the static output gain from stabilization is captured in a simple formula in which the gain is approximately proportional to the square of the original inflation distortion third successful stabilization increases the rate of growth of output per head and not only its level in the presence of constant returns to capital in a broad sense fourth substitution of plausible parameter estimates into the simple formulae reflecting the gains from stabilization indicate that the static and dynamic output gains can be substantial

resource partitioning and the organizational dynamics of fringe banking we examine the emergence and proliferation of payday lenders fringe businesses that provide small short term but high cost loans we link the organizational dynamics of these businesses to two trends in consumer lending in the united states the continuing consolidation of mainstream financial institutions and the expansion of such institutions in the provision of financial services regarded as similar to payday loans we explain the coexistence in mature industries of large scale organizations in the market center and smaller specialists in the periphery by testing and extending the organizational model of resource partitioning our focus is on two under examined aspects of the model the dynamic underlying the partitioning process and the conditions under which the market remains partitioned the empirical analysis covers payday lenders banks and credit unions operating in wisconsin between 1994 and 2008

performance changes and shareholder wealth creation associated with mergers of publicly traded banking institutions this paper examines the mean and cross sectional behavior of performance changes and consolidated abnormal returns among a sample of forty eight mergers occurring from 1982 to 1991 involving publicly traded banking institutions although both merger related performance changes and consolidated abnormal returns are small or nonexistent these measures show a great deal of cross sectional variation however the dispersion in performance changes and abnormal returns is related to different factors suggesting that expectations and outcomes are influenced by different variables further strengthening this notion that expectations and outcomes are unrelated are insignificant correlations of abnormal returns and performance changes copyright 1996 by ohio state university press

natural resources and economic growth a meta analysis summary an important question in development studies is how natural resources richness affects long term economic growth no consensus answer however has yet emerged with approximately 40 of empirical papers finding a negative effect 40 finding no effect and 20 finding a positive effect does the literature taken together imply the existence of the so called natural resource curse in a quantitative survey of 605 estimates reported in 43 studies we find that overall support for the resource curse hypothesis is weak when potential publication bias and method heterogeneity are taken into account our results also suggest that four aspects of study design are especially effective in explaining the differences in results across studies 1 controlling for institutional quality 2 controlling for the level of investment activity 3 distinguishing between different types of natural resources and 4 differentiating between resource dependence and abundance

are syndicated loans truly less expensive abstract in this paper we empirically examine the spreads of syndicated and non syndicated loans we compare the spreads from tranches belonging to both types of contracts across deals of similar sizes our study of large corporate loans in the us market for the period from 1990 to 2013 shows that the differential between syndicated and non syndicated spreads is on average 19 23 basis points moreover for small and medium loans the differences are 39 3 and 21 89 basis points respectively we use different methodologies and time periods and address endogeneity concerns on the decision of syndication to provide robust empirical evidence that contrary to some previous studies syndicated loans are not less expensive than non syndicated loans and in most cases are significantly more expensive particularly for small loans

are output fluctuations transitory according to the conventional view of the business cycle fluctuations in output represent temporary deviations from trend the purpose of this paper is to question this conventional view if fluctuations in output are dominated by temporary deviations from the natural rate of output then an unexpected change in output today should not substantially change one s forecast of output in say five or ten years our examination of quarterly postwar united states data leads us to be skeptical about this implication the data suggest that an unexpected change in real gnp of 1 percent should change one s forecast by over 1 percent over a long horizon

imperfect competition in bank retail markets deposit and loan rate dynamics and incomplete pass through this paper examines determinants of pass through from the market interest rate to bank retail deposit and loan rates a dynamic adjustment cost model with imperfect competition implies that these rates depend on own lagged values and on lagged current and expected future values of the security rate greater competition in retail markets reduces the impact of lagged and expected rates on current retail rates while raising the effect of the current security rate yielding greater pass through these results have important implications for both the specifications used in empirical work and biases introduced into estimates of pass through effects

are mergers beneficial to consumers evidence from the market for bank deposits the general conclusion of the empirical literature is that in market consolidation generates adverse price changes harming consumers previous studies however look only at the short run pricing impact of consolidation ignoring effects that take longer to materialize using a database that includes detailed information on the deposit rates of individual banks in local markets for different categories of depositors we investigate the long run price effects of mergers we find strong evidence that although consolidation does generate adverse price changes these are temporary in the long run efficiency gains dominate over the market power effect leading to more favorable prices for consumers jel g21 g34 l1

real stock prices and the long run money demand function evidence from canada and the usa abstract this paper investigates the relationship between stock prices and the long run money demand function in canada and the usa during the post wwii period 1955 1989 the empirical investigation is conducted by means of the johansen method of cointegration and the error correction modelling strategy results show that stock prices play a significant role in the determination of stationary long run real m1 and real m2 demand functions in both countries the direction and magnitude of the role of stock prices depends upon the definition of the money and the country error correction results provide evidence of causality between the real money stock and the determinants of the money demand including real stock prices

why do banks merge the banking industry is consolidating at an accelerating pace yet no conclusive results have emerged on the benefits of mergers and acquisitions in order to investigate the motives and results of each type of deal we consider separately acquisitions that is the purchase of the majority of voting shares and mergers using italian data mergers seek to improve income from services but the increase is offset by higher staff costs return on equity improves because of a decrease in capital acquisitions aim to restructure the loan portfolio of the acquired bank improved lending policies result in higher profits

booming sector and de industrialisation in a small open economy this paper presents a theoretical analysis of the dutch disease the phenomenon whereby a boom in one traded goods sector squeezes porfitability in other traded goods sectors both by directly bi

the seasonal unit root structure in new zealand macroeconomic variables adf unit root tests are generally applied to macroeconomic data prior to testing theoritical models to ensure that all relevant variables are integrated of the same order not only is it important to test that these variables are integrated of the same order but also that a cointegrating relationship exists failure to do so raise the specture of false inference associated with the spurious regression problem the seasonal nature of quarterly data adds a further proplem which has generally been overcome by seasonally adjusting the data using procedure such as the census x 11 rather than suppressing it have attempted to determine whether the seasonal component in each variable exhibits stochastic non stationary this paper analysisunit roots in a seasonal setting and compares the recently developed tests for seasonal unit roots as well as the standard augmented dickey fuller zerop frequency unit root tests of the variables tested relatively few paper to be integrated at the seasonal frequenciues and as

natural resources and economic growth the role of investment is it possible that excessive reliance on natural resources affects saving and investment in a way that retards economic growth and thus in the long run the level of output per capita this paper reviews the literature explores the data and compares and contrasts the explanatory power and interplay of natural resources and civil liberties our proxy for institutional variables currently under scrutiny in the literature we propose that natural resource dependence may be viewed as an exogenous factor that impedes economic growth and investment as well as institutions even if we stress that natural resource abundance may be good for growth

winners or losers the effects of banking consolidation on corporate borrowers we estimate the impact of bank mergers and acquisitions m as on outstanding credit credit lines and the sensitivity of investment to cash flow using a large sample of italian corporate borrowers we distinguish between firms that experienced relationship termination as a consequence of bank m as and those that did not our findings are consistent with bank m as having an adverse effect on credit particularly when the m a is followed by relationship termination the effect persists 3 years and then is absorbed suggesting that firms are able to compensate for the negative shock in the past decade many countries experienced a wave of mergers and acquisitions m as that profoundly modified the structure of their banking industries group of ten 2001 one of the key questions that has emerged in the academic and policy debates is what the consequences of m as are for bank borrowers the empirical literature on bank m as studies extensively the effects of consolidation on bank performance and local market conditions particularly in terms of efficiency and market power see berger demsetz and strahan

bayesian analysis of periodic unit roots in the presence of a break a bayesian testing approach for a periodic unit root in quarterly and monthly data is presented further a bayesian test is introduced to test for unit roots at non seasonal spectral frequencies all procedures admit one structural break in the periodic trend function where the occurrence of a break and the associated timing are treated as additional model parameters a bayesian model averaging bma approach is proposed and power functions of the tests are computed overall the results indicate that the bma periodic unit root test exhibits favourable test properties even in small samples in an empirical application the presented testing procedures are used to test for non seasonal forms of unemployment persistence among oecd countries

ownership and growth this article suggests how state enterprises can be incorporated into the theoretical and empirical growth literature specifically it shows that if state enterprises are less efficient than private firms invest less employ less skilled labor and are less eager to adopt new technology then a large state enterprise sector tends to be associated with slow economic growth all else remaining the same the empirical evidence for 1978 92 indicates that through a mixture of these channels an increase in the share of state enterprises in employment by one standard deviation could reduce per capita growth by one to two percentage points a year from one country to another

consolidation and bank branching patterns abstract this paper examines the association between consolidation and changes in levels of bank branching as measured by changes in the number of bank branches per capita using a specially constructed data set we address this issue as well as how this relationship varies with the type of consolidation and initial regulatory competitive and market conditions we find that merges where merging institutions have branch networks which overlap within a zip code within zip merger are strongly associated with a reduction in offices per capita in that zip code this result is robust across time and holds in both rural and urban areas the findings also suggest that contrary to popularly held views consolidation is not unambiguously negatively associated with changes in the number of banking offices per capita neither within market but not within zip mergers nor out of market mergers consistently show such a relationship we also find that the relationships between within zip and within market but not within zip mergers and changes in the number of bank offices per capita are more negative in low income neighborhoods than in other neighborhoods however because most states now have unrestricted branching and because savings associations are less prevalent and financially healthier than in the past these findings may not be indicative of future branching patterns

loan sales and the cost of bank capital this paper considers a model where banks may improve the returns on loans by monitoring borrowers bank regulation together with competitive deposit and equity financing can give banks an incentive to sell loans but the extent of their loan selling is limited by a moral hazard problem a solution is given for the optimal design of the bank loan buyer contract that alleviates this moral hazard problem an explanation is also given as to why some banks might buy loans and why loan sales volume has recently increased banks practice of making loans and then selling them to other institutions and individuals has grown in popularity an important example in the development of loan selling has been the increase in banks mortgage loans that are insured and pooled under the authority of the government national mortgage association gnma and then sold to secondary market investors recently however there has been a dramatic rise in the volume of other types of loans being sold especially by money center banks portions of commercial loans originated by these larger banks are being sold to smaller banks foreign banks and other financial and nonfinancial institutions in addition banks car loans and credit card receivables have also been pooled and sold to institutions and individuals selling loans that were once considered nonmarketable assets a process that has been termed asset securitization may be signalling the start of a fundamental change in the commercial banking business the leading banks in loan selling operations now view themselves more as originators and distributors of loans rather than as institutions holding loans as assets the potentially large impact of loan sales on the future of commercial banking naturally evokes the question of what incentives exist for banks to sell loans in this paper we show that loan sales allow some banks to finance loans less expensively than by traditional deposit or equity issue because bank funds received via loan sales can avoid costs associated with required reserves and

exports from a remote developed region analysed by an inverse hyperbolic sine transformation of the gravity model picture a small open economy alone in the middle of the atlantic ocean and highly dependent on trade with nafta and the eu how important are these trading blocs to the country s exports how significant is the country s isolation and small size and how do these affect the export sectors typically the export volume is significantly impacted by the economic size of the exporting country but in this case it is not this suggests that the exports from small remote economies are driven by different factors than exports from large economies the data are analysed using a unique transformation of the gravity model by an inverse hyperbolic sine function allowing for accountancy of scattered exports

mergers and technical efficiency in spanish savings banks a stochastic distance function approach abstract the aim of this paper is to test the temporal variation of technical efficiency of spanish savings banks during the period 1985 1998 furthermore we test whether merged and non merged firms have different levels and temporal patterns of technical efficiency a stochastic output distance function r w shephard theory of cost and production functions princeton university press princeton nj is employed to accommodate multiple output technology the distance function provides the advantage that it does not need information about prices so it can accommodate the multi product nature of the financial sector only using the quantities as data an important point when the assumptions about perfectly competitive markets are unlikely to be met the temporal variation of efficiency is modeled extending the battese and coelli journal of productivity analysis 3 1992 153 169 approach in two ways relaxing the monotonicity of the temporal variation pattern of the efficiency term and allowing for different patterns of efficiency change between merged and non merged firms

does gnp have a unit root a re evaluation abstract stock and watson 1986 test the hypothesis that real per capita gnp has a unit root by using a test statistic due to phillips 1985 which incorporates a non parametric correction for the serial correlation induced by system and error dynamics the version of this test that is used by stock and watson does not accomodate the presence of a drift and to compensate they detrend the series by extracting a 1 5 annual trend growth we use a version of this class of non parametric tests developed by phillips and perron 1986 which allows for an estimated drift and reassess the stock and watson findings

how much do distortions affect growth abstract this paper presents a simple endogenous growth model with two types of capital which can display sizeable long run growth effects of distortionary policies the model applies to many different types of distortions of relative prices common in developing countries such as differential taxes and tariffs black market exchange rates and price controls the model shows that a subsidy to one type of capital financed by a tax on another capital good lowers growth a measure of the variance of relative prices of investment goods across sectors has a negative and statistically significant effect on growth

long run purchasing power parity during the recent float abstract this paper examines the relevance of long run purchasing power parity ppp which allows for measurement errors during the recent floating exchange rate period previous empirical studies generally fail to find support for long run ppp over this period in this paper in this paper the cointegration property of exchange rates and prices is examined using maximum likelihood procedure and we find significant evidence favorable to long run ppp further tests for symmetry and proportionality indicate that these two conditions are not generally with the data the results support the hypothesis of long run ppp with measurement errors in prices

wealth natural capital and sustainable development contrasting examples from botswana and namibia theoretical work has demonstrated that sustainable development requires non declining per capita wealth where wealth is defined to include produced natural human and social capital several studies have attempted to measure total national wealth or changes in wealth but have been seriously hampered by a lack of data especially for natural and human capital to address this problem the un and other international statistical agencies developed a standardized framework for environmental accounts the system of integrated environmental and economic accounts seea using the newly available asset accounts for natural capital national wealth accounts are constructed and used to assess the contrasting development paths of botswana and namibia botswana with an explicit policy of reinvestment of resource rents has roughly tripled per capita wealth and national income over the past two decades namibia with no explicit policy to use natural capita to build wealth has seen per capita wealth and income decline

margin based asset pricing and deviations from the law of one price in a model with heterogeneous risk aversion agents facing margin constraints we show how securities required returns increase in both their betas and their margin requirements negative shocks to fundamentals make margin constraints bind lowering risk free rates and raising sharpe ratios of risky securities especially for high margin securities such a funding liquidity crisis gives rise to bases that is price gaps between securities with identical cash flows but different margins in the time series bases depend on the shadow cost of capital which can be captured through the interest rate spread between collateralized and uncollateralized loans and in the cross section they depend on relative margins we test the model empirically using the credit default swap bond bases and other deviations from the law of one price and use it to evaluate central banks lending facilities jel g01 g12 g13 e44 e50 the paramount role of funding constraints becomes particularly salient during liquidity crises with the one that started in 2007 being an excellent case in point banks unable to fund their operations closed down and the funding problems spread to other investors such as hedge funds that relied on bank funding therefore traditional liquidity providers became forced sellers interest rate spreads increased dramatically treasury rates dropped sharply and central banks stretched their balance sheets to facilitate funding these funding problems had significant asset pricing effects the most extreme example being the failure of the law of one price loop securities with nearly

price response asymmetric information and competition we compare predictions from a theoretical model based on the structure of the main outdoor retail market in jerusalem with the results of an empirical analysis of price response to changes in cost we find that firms without adjacent competition exhibit both upward and downward price rigidity an outcome we ascribe to asymmetric information between the consumer and the firm given that previous studies have focused on downward price rigidities of firms with market power our findings highlight the importance of accounting for transitory information asymmetries between the consumer and the firm when studying price rigidity

seasonal adjustment of the monetary aggregates summary of the federal reserve s committee report the committee of experts on seasonal adjustment techniques was formed by the federal reserve board to examine and make recommendations concerning the board s procedures for seasonally adjusting the money supply and related series this article summarizes the report of that committee

the effects of consumers price expectations on sellers dynamic pricing strategies abstract the authors propose a dynamic market equilibrium model to investigate how consumers form price expectations and how these expectations influence their sequential search behavior and prices in the market they derive a perfect bayesian nash equilibrium and show that whereas higher current period prices induce search consumers who observe higher historical prices form higher price expectations become more pessimistic and search less furthermore the authors show that when prices increase as a result of an increase in marginal costs consumers respond by searching more which then leads to higher prices and instant price adjustment in contrast because consumer search activities decline when prices fall sellers may respond by lowering their prices just enough to dampen consumers search tendencies when costs decrease the authors test their theoretical model and its implications and find support for it in a series of simulated market experiments

airline mergers airport dominance and market power effects of northwestrepublic and twaozark mergers on fares at minneapolisst paul and st louis

unit roots and seasonal unit roots in macroeconomic time series canadian evidence abstract unit root tests are conducted to determine whether the unit root found in seasonal adjusted data may be due to seasonal adjustment filters typically applied by government agencies i e arima x 11 we find that a unit root exists in both the raw and adjusted data except for the unemployment rate second we also find that the commonly used seasonal adjustment filter introduced by box and jenkins 1970 is generally inappropriate

regulations market structure institutions and the cost of financial intermediation this paper examines the impact of bank regulations market structure and national institutions on bank net interest margins and overhead costs using data on over 1400 banks across 72 countries while controlling for bankspecific characteristics the data indicate that tighter regulations on bank entry and bank activities boost the cost of financial intermediation inflation also exerts a robust positive impact on bank margins and overhead costs while concentration is positively associated with net interest margins this relationship breaksdownwhencontrolling for regulatory impediments to competition and inflation furthermore bank regulations become insignificant when controlling for national indicators of economic freedom or property rights protection while these institutional indicators robustly explain cross bank net interest margins and overhead expenditures thus bank regulations cannot be viewed in isolation they reflect broad national approaches to private property and competition

the price and profit effects of horizontal merger a case study the economic rationale behind antitrust concern for horizontal mergers rests primarily on the familiar structure performance paradigm that links market concentration with supra competitive profits and implicitly with higher prices a vast empirical literature has demonstrated a positive statistical relationship between measures of industry structure such as entry barriers and concentration and average industry profit using cross section data a small number of cross section studies most dealing with banking services have claimed to find a positive relationship between concentrated market structure and price measures aspinwall 1970 bell and murphy i969 heggestak and mingo 1976 hester i979 lamm i98i landon i97i marion et al 1979 and marvel 1978 but we are unaware of any study that traces the effect of an actual change in market structure on prices or profits in this paper we exploit an unusual opportunity to test for price effects and estimate profit consequences of two acquisitions that resulted in substantial increases in the market share of the acquiring firm the evidence we examine arises from a recent federal trade commission antitrust suit against xidex corporation the world s largest producer of duplicating microfilm the xidex case is unusual in three respects i although the size of the market is small sales under ioo million the acquisitions involved greater changes in market shares than are usual in antitrust actions 2 the suit was brought five years after the first acquisition and two years after the second so a post acquisition record of price behavior exists for this example furthermore the price data used in this study are actual transaction prices 3 special characteristics of the products allow a relatively straightforward test for price effects of the acquisitions the next section provides background information concerning the firms and products involved following that we describe the data and methodology used to estimate the price effects of the acquisitions and present results which indicate significant price increases traceable to the acquisitions we then offer estimates of the incremental profits attributable to those price increases a final section provides a summary the analysis and conclusions set forth in this study are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of federal trade commission staff or the commission itself all data and other information used in the study are in the public domain this includes information obtained by the commission which has become part of the public record for helpful comments we thank allan fisher ron lafferty paul pautler and rich sciacca of the bureau of economics federal trade commission

the stability of short term interest rates pass through in the euro area during the financial market and sovereign debt crises we analyse the dynamics of the pass through of banks marginal cost to bank lending rates over the 2008 crisis and the euro area sovereign debt crisis in france germany greece italy portugal and spain we measure banks marginal cost by their rate on new deposits contrary to the literature that focuses on money market rates this allows us to account for banks risks we focus on the interest rate on new short term loans granted to non financial corporations in these countries our analysis is based on an error correction approach that we extend to handle the time varying long run relationship between banks lending rates and banks marginal cost as well as stochastic volatility our application is based on a harmonised monthly database from january 2003 to october 2014 we estimate the model within a bayesian framework using markov chain monte carlo methods mcmc we reject the view that the transmission mechanism is permanent over time the long run relationship moved with the sovereign debt crises to a new one with a slower pass through and higher bank lending rates its developments are heterogeneous from one country to the other impediments to the transmission of monetary rates depend on the heterogeneity in banks marginal costs and therefore its risks we also find that rates to small firms increase compared to large firms in a few countries using a var model we show that overall the effect of a shock on the rate of new deposits on the unexpected variances of new loans has been less important since 2010 these results confirm the slowdown in the transmission mechanism

quantifying equilibrium network externalities in the ach banking industry we seek to estimate the causes and magnitudes of network externalities for the automated clearinghouse ach electronic payments system using a panel data set on individual bank usage of ach we construct an equilibrium model of consumer and bank adoption of ach in the presence of a network the model identifies network externalities from correlations of changes in usage levels for banks within a network from changes in usage following changes in market concentration or sizes of competitors and from adoption decisions of banks outside the network with small branches in the network and can separately identify consumer and bank network effects we structurally estimate the parameters of the model by matching equilibrium behavior to the data using simulated maximum likelihood and a data set of localized networks and use a bootstrap to recover confidence intervals the parameters are estimated with high precision and fit various moments of the data reasonably well we find that most of the impediment to ach adoption is due to large consumer fixed costs of adoption the deadweight loss from the network externality is moderate the optimal number of ach transactions is about 16 higher than the equilibrium level

securitization and mortgage renegotiation evidence from the great depression we use loan level data from the nyc metropolitan area to examine the extent to which lenders attempted to prevent foreclosures with concessionary modi cations during the great depression we nd no principal forgiveness in the sample and only a handful of concessionary mortgage modi cations of other types far more mortgages terminated through foreclosure than received any sort of concessionary modi cation the results indicate that there are signi cant impediments to renegotiation of residential mortgages beyond securitization as such less renegotiation seems unlikely to be a major cost of securitization of residential mortgages

the concentration conduct relationship in bank deposit markets this study investigates the structure conduct performance relationship in retail deposit markets the study explicitly incorporates conduct as the link between structure and performance in local deposit markets it attempts to determine whether banks typically behave competitively or strategically and whether their conduct is influenced by market concentration the empirical investigation is guided by an equilibrium model of a retail deposit market the model is applied to regression equations for local msa mmda and three and six month cd rates the empirical results indicate that strategic conduct is the norm in mmda and in three and six month cd markets copyright 1991 by mit press

how have borrowers fared in banking mega mergers previous studies of event returns surrounding bank mergers show that banks gain value in megamergers and additional value when they absorb in market competitors a portion of these gains has been traced to the increased bargaining power of banks vis a vis regulators and other competitors we demonstrate that increased bargaining power of megabanks adversely affects loan customers of the acquired institution wealth losses are greater when loan customers are credit constrained the loan customer is smaller or the acquisition is an in market deal these findings reinforce complaints that the ongoing consolidation in banking has unfavorably affected the availability of credit for smaller firms and especially capitalconstrained firms

do gasoline prices respond asymmetrically to crude oil price changes the authors test and confirm that retail gasoline prices respond more quickly to increases than to decreases in crude oil prices among the possible sources of this asymmetry are production inventory adjustment lags and market power of some sellers by analyzing price transmission at different points in the distribution chain the authors attempt to shed light on these theories spot prices for generic gasoline show asymmetry in responding to crude oil price changes which may reflect inventory adjustment effects asymmetry also appears in the response of retail prices to wholesale price changes possibly indicating short run market power among retailers

bank deposit rate clustering theory and empirical evidence the market prices of stocks and other assets tend to cluster on round fractions a similar clustering is found in the interest rates paid on retail bank deposits however the theoretical rationales given for asset price clustering are incompatible with the clustering of retail deposit rates this paper proposes a theory based on depositors limited recall it shows that when banks exploit this phenomenon deposit rates will tend to be set at round fractions and will be relatively sticky at these levels the implications of this theoretical model are tested using money market deposit account and retail certificate of deposit interest rate data from a sample of more than 500 banks