oligopolistic markets with sequential search and production cost uncertainty this article analyzes a sequential search model where firms face identical but stochastic production costs the realizations of which are unknown to consumers we characterize a perfect bayesian equilibrium satisfying a reservation price property and provide a sufficient condition for such an equilibrium to exist we show that i firms set on average higher prices and make larger profits compared to the scenario where consumers observe production costs ii expected prices and consumer welfare can be non monotonic in the number of firms and iii the impact of production cost uncertainty vanishes as the number of firms becomes very large

temporary wholesale gasoline price spikes have long lasting retail effects the aftermath of hurricane rita abstract i study u s gasoline prices following hurricane rita to show that short lived geographical differences in the severity of wholesale gasoline price spikes are associated with long lasting geographical differences in retail prices in most u s cities wholesale prices spiked significantly for roughly 2 weeks following the hurricane however in cities where this spike was particularly large retail margins remained higher than in other cities for nearly 2 months high retail margins dissipated more quickly after the hurricane in cities where competition between stations tends to generate cyclical retail price fluctuations independent of wholesale cost movements i discuss why prices may have fallen faster in cities exhibiting retail price cycles and present additional results identifying differences in market characteristics between cities with and without price cycles i find that cycling cities tend to have higher population density and have independent nonrefinery brand stations that are mor

learning by doing the technology gap and growth in contrast with other trade and growth theories in previous literature the author resents a growth theory of trade induced learning other things being equal two conditions are essential for trade induced learning first both exports and imports are equally important sources and are mutually reinforced in intensifying the learning process moreover the nature or characteristics of these traded goods also influence the effect of learning second trade openness is a prerequisite but not a sufficient condition for rapid growth with whom one trades one s trading partner is a key factor in determining trade induced technology spillover and hence in affecting enduring growth therefore this trade induced learning theory provides abundant and testable implications for the empirical study of trade and growth copyright 1998 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

price asymmetry in the dutch retail gasoline market abstract this article analyses the retail price adjustments in the dutch gasoline market we estimate an asymmetric error correction model on weekly price changes for the years 1996 2001 we construct five datasets one for each working day the conclusions on asymmetric pricing are shown to differ over these datasets suggesting that the choice of the day for which the prices are observed matters more than commonly believed in our view the insufficient robustness of the outcomes might explain the mixed conclusions found in the literature using these two approaches we also show that the effect of asymmetry on the dutch consumer costs is negligible

commodity price instability and economic goal attainment in developing countries abstract this paper reviews the theoretical and empirical micro and macro foundations for the frequent claims that instabilities in international commodity markets have deleterious effects on goal attainment in primary commodity exporting developing countries this review leads to the conclusion that the available evidence does not support these claims the paper concludes with speculation on why such claims are so strong despite the lack of supporting evidence perhaps it is because of measurement problems and perhaps because of small but articulate groups with vested interests in overstating the problem

the effects of volatility in the terms of trade on output growth new evidence abstract this paper examines the empirical evidence for the hypothesis that there is a negative relationship between terms of trade volatility and output growth it finds a statistically significant link between income terms of trade volatility and lower growth rates when the degree of volatility in the income terms of trade is decomposed into its components fluctuations in real exports are of a magnitude similar to those in the relative price of tradables similarly the volatility in the net barter terms of trade is equally affected by variations in the price of exports and of imports any policies aimed at stabilizing the terms of trade or any of its components need to take account of this

what does export diversification do for growth an econometric analysis it is frequently suggested that export diversification contributes to an acceleration of growth in developing countries horizontal export diversification into completely new export sectors may generate positive externalities on the rest of the economy as export oriented sectors gain from dynamic learning activities due to contacts with foreign purchasers and exposure to international competition vertical diversification out of primary into manufactured exports is also associated with growth since primary export sectors generally do not exhibit strong spillovers yet there have been remarkably few empirical investigations into the link between export diversification and growth this paper attempts to examine the hypothesis that export diversification is linked to economic growth via externalities of learning by doing and learning by exporting fostered by competition in world markets the diversification led growth hypothesis is tested by estimating an augmented cobb douglas production function on the bas

how far down the path to free trade the importance of rice price stabilization in developing asia abstract international trade agreements are pushing the world in the direction of free trade but price stabilization which is inconsistent with completely free trade remains important in developing asia because of the large share of rice in economic output a policy of pure price stabilization for rice without consistent protection either subsidization or taxation can help to create the macroeconomic stability that is essential for sustained rapid economic growth by increasing the quantity and efficiency of investment throughout the economy pure price stabilization can also generate significant equity gains by protecting poor consumers and farmers from sharp fluctuations in prices while domestic commodity price stabilization schemes have a checkered history around the world the experience of asian countries in stabilizing rice prices offers more scope for optimism asian governments have been generally successful in stabilizing rice prices and there are several instances where this has been accomplished without sustained protection of either consumers or farmers however there is room for improved stabilization mechanisms that would lower the costs of intervention

measuring macroeconomic instability a critical survey illustrated with exports series for at least 40 years the analysis of the causes and consequences of macroeconomic instability has greatly deepened our understanding of the handicaps faced by developing countries this concern on economic instability is evidenced by a broad spectrum of indicators based on the deviation of observed values of a given economic aggregate from its reference or trend value in general the choice of this or that indicator is not discussed advocating that the resulting instability indicators are closely correlated focusing on measurements of instability in export revenue data for 134 countries from 1970 to 2005 this paper finds that this assertion may be true for variancebased indicators measuring the average magnitude of deviations from the trend however great discrepancies may arise between different measures of the asymmetry or of the occurrence of extreme deviations around the trend when different trend computation methods are used our purpose is therefore to invite further discussions regarding the use of these indicators and to highlight the different dimensions of instability which have been so far unheeded by the economic literature

inequality of opportunity in egypt the article evaluates the contribution of inequality of opportunity to earnings inequality in egypt and analyzes its evolution across three time periods and different population groups it provides parametric and nonparametric estimates of a lower bound for the degree of inequality of opportunity for wage and salary workers on average the contribution of opportunity shaping circumstances to earnings inequality declined from 22 percent in 1988 to 15 percent in 2006 levels of inequality of opportunity were fairly stable while earnings differentials widened markedly leading to a decline in the share of inequality attributable to opportunities father s background and geographic origins had the largest effect on earnings although the impact of mother s education has risen in recent years the degree of inequality of opportunity did not differ significantly by gender or rural urban area although the incidence was lower for men and for rural areas the results indicate an increase in inequality of opportu

export product diversification and co2 emissions contextual evidences from developing and developed economies abstract ascertaining cleaner production and sustainability is a major issue in the developed and developing world income and international trade are the predominant factors behind this this article explores the heterogeneous impacts of export product diversification extensive margin and intensive margins on the co2 emissions for developing and developed countries to this end the authors analyze the annual data of variables from 1971 to 2014 and employ unrestricted fixed effects and system gmm to solve the research problem the empirics suggest that all three indicators of export diversification significantly reduce co2 emissions in 63 developed and developing countries as a global sample the fixed effect models reveal that product diversification and intensive margin have a negative and significant impact in developed economies the negative impacts of product diversification show that economic sophistication is an important tool to reduce emissions further the chow test proved the statistical difference between developed and developing economies which contributes to policy recommendations based on the empirical outcomes the study suggests innovative policies for cleaner production and industrial manufacturing purposes making the policies more effective in achieving sustainable development goals sdgs

instability and the growth of exports abstract this paper points out the methodological weaknesses in n v lam s article and with the employment of appropriate measures demonstrates the tautological nature of lam s findings on the relationship between export growth and instability in addition it provides certain general guidelines regarding the selection of export instability indices

manufactured exports from developing countries and their terms of trade a reexamination of the sarkar singer results abstract sarkar and singer 1991 argue that the terms of trade for exports of manufactures from developing countries dcs like that for their primary commodity exports have manifested a long term trend favoring the importing developed countries we contend here that the authors have not paid adequate attention to appropriately adjusting the data and that they have misinterpreted the results when these limitations are taken into account a sound basis exists for the conclusion that through rapid expansion of manufactured exports dcs as a group have achieved significant gains in import purchasing power without generating adverse impact on the net barter terms of trade

did the airline tariff publishing case reduce collusion abstractin december 1992 the u s department of justice filed suit against eight major domestic airlines and the airline tariff publishing atp company in order to reduce opportunities for collusion in the industry the lawsuit ended with consent decrees limiting the ability of airlines to communicate surreptitiously through the shared fare database this paper measures the effects of the litigation and its settlement on industry performance comparing changes in outcomes between market segments that were more and less likely to be affected by the atp case prices fell in response to the investigation but increased following the settlement while the number of tickets sold in affected markets declined the importance of multimarket contact also declined and then recovered the atp case had at best a temporary effect on airline collusion

developing countries terms of trade in manufactures 1967 87 a note terms of trade relating only to manufactured exports and imports are calculated for a sample of 37 industrialised and developing countries over the 1967 to 1987 period it is found that the terms of trade movements were significantly more favourable for higher income countries this result highlights the importance of export diversification as part of a development strategy

manufactured exports of developing countries and their terms of trade since 1965 a comment abstract the results of sarkar and singer 1991 on the trends in the relative unit values of the manufactured exports of developing countries are sensitive to the choice of end year and to fluctuations in the unit values of us exports relative to those of the rest of the world the relative unit values of us exports are highly correlated with movements in the us real exchange rate and there is some evidence to suggest that sarkar and singer s findings primarily reflect changes in the real exchange rates of developing countries

making sense of nonbinding retail price recommendations we model retail price recommendations rprs as a communication device in vertical supply relations with private manufacturer information on production costs and consumer demand with static trade rprs are irrelevant and the equilibrium outcome is inefficient with repeated trade rprs can become part of a relational contract communicating private information from manufacturer to retailer that is indispensable for maximizing joint surplus we show that this contract is self enforcing if the retailer s profit is independent of production costs and punishment strategies are chosen appropriately the predictions of our analysis are consistent with the available empirical evidence

manufactured exports and terms of trade of developing countries evidence from sri lanka terms of trade implications of diversification into manufactured exports in a traditional primary exporting country are examined in the light of the sri lankan experience over the past two decades the empirical analysis focuses on trends in both commodity and income terms of trade employing a methodology which takes care of the spurious regression problem the results suggest that contrary to the new terms of trade pessimism export diversification has brought about significant terms of trade gains for the sri lankan economy overall the study casts doubt on the robustness of results coming from analyses of price trends in aggregate manufactured exports and calls for systematic time profile analyses of the countries which have achieved significant export diversification in order to inform the policy debate

commodity and developing country terms of trade what does the long run show recently the debate surrounding the commodity net barter terms of trade and the terms of trade of developing countries has entered a new phase in this journal spraos i980 presents evidence of a stable declining commodity terms of trade and sapsford i985 although fl nding instability in the work of spraos argues in support of the stable declining terms of trade hypothesis grilli and yang i988 henceforth gy also provide evidence supporting this view and state the implications of this finding for developing country terms of trade a major contribution of gy is a published set of data on the main price indices with a high degree of consistency for the whole century 1 however cuddington and urzua i989 in thisjournal illustrate that the hypothesis of a secular deterioration in the commodity terms of trade is not robust to the alternative claim that there was a once and for all shift in commodity prices in the period i920 i after taking this shift into account these authors find little evidence to support the view of a secular decline 2 this debate has important implications for the prebisch singer hypothesis of a stable declining commodity terms of trade see for instance prebisch i 950 it also has implications for both development and stabilisation strategies adopted by commodity dependent developing countries a central issue in this analysis is the order of integration of the commodity terms of trade a time series is said to be integrated of order o i o if its mean and variance are constant or roughly speaking if the series is stationary a time series is said to be i n if the series requires first differencing n times before a stationary series is obtained alternatively if adding a time trend is sufficient to induce stationarity the series is termed trend stationary a trend stationary series implies that the variable in question simply adjusts around a constant growth path but an i i series is truly non stationary and displays very different properties a commonly cited example of an 1 i series is the random walk the order of integration of a single time series is related to the idea of cointegration of a number of time series consider two variables x and y that are not themselves i o but are of the same order of integration if the residuals from regressing x on y or vice versa are i o or roughly speaking if the residuals are stationary it can be concluded that the two variables are cointegrated in turn this implies that there is some form of equilibrium

the impact of foreign direct investment on horizontal export diversification empirical evidence using data on stocks of foreign direct investment fdi from 131 countries spanning the years 1984 to 2004 and the number of products exported by each country we examine the effect of fdi on horizontal export diversification to quantify the effects we utilize parametric quantile and semi parametric econometric methods results from both approaches indicate that in general an increase in the stock of fdi enhances the horizontal diversification of exports the actual magnitude of the effect however varies greatly across countries depending on the existing stock of fdi and stage of diversification giving rise to an almost inverted u shaped relationship a further look at our results provides useful insights on the circumstances under which fdi may aid or inhibit the horizontal expansion of exports

do msrps decrease prices abstract the nature of manufacturer s suggested retail prices msrps and whether they increase or decrease prices is poorly understood we exploit a policy experiment in which a ban on msrps was imposed and then lifted a year later and show that msrps decrease prices by 3 6 percent on average there is no indication that msrps lowered prices by acting as binding price ceilings instead we find suggestive evidence that msrps are aimed at consumers possibly providing a benchmark by which consumers can evaluate prices

export fluctuations and economic growth an empirical analysis abstract the uncertainty associated with trade variability is generally resumed to exert a significant effect on the domestic economy of loss developed countries inadequately equipped to cope with these fluctuations the belief that it has a negative influence on these economies has been for several decades the dominant hypothesis among economists but it has been challenged on both theoretical and empirical growths the present paper proposes to investigate this problem from an empirical point of view cross country analysis is developed to investigate the influence of export instability on the domestic economy of less advanced nations the results show that no clear conclusions for the general case can be provided since they are sensitive to the particular time period considered a negative impact can be expected when price and quantity instability appear to reinforce each other but this is not always the case

product diversification and stability of employment and sales first evidence from german manufacturing firms we use a unique rich newly built data set for german manufacturing enterprises to investigate the relationship between product diversification and the stability of sales and employment we find that contrary to portfolio theoretic considerations more diversified firms exhibit a higher variability of sales and employment however the effects are negligibly small from an economics point of view

government assisted oligopoly coordination a concrete case in 1993 the danish antitrust authority decided to gather and publish firm specific transactions prices for two grades of ready mixed concrete in three regions of denmark following initial publication average prices of reported grades increased by 15 20 percent within one year we investigate whether this was due to a business upturn and or capacity constraints but argue that these seem to have little explanatory power we conclude that a better explanation is that publication of prices allowed firms to reduce the intensity of oligopoly price competition and hence led to increased prices contrary to the aim of the authority

embodied pollution in trade estimating the environmental load displacement of industrialised countries abstract the present paper sets out to aid in the development of environmental load displacement indicators developing the notion of the environmental memory of physical flows we estimated embodied pollution in trade of 18 industrialized countries with a the rest of the world and b developing countries from 1976 to 1994 we found that in the last years of analysis total imports of japan usa and western europe have entailed in general larger air pollutant emissions than local exports the balance of embodied emissions in trade beet seems to follow an inverted u shape across time in japan and western europe and an n shape in the us in the period of analysis japanese and european environmental terms of trade with developing countries improved from the japanese and european point of view whereas american environmental terms of trade with developing countries deteriorated over time although there is no statistical trend between income and embodied emissions in imports in a cross section analysis there does seem to be a positive relationship between both variables at a national level the results suggest that despite many shortcomings this type of assessment may shed useful insights on the international aspects of sustainable development

want export diversification educate the kids first this paper uses bayesian model averaging to uncover the true determinants of export diversification among 36 potential factors and thus 236 potential models using data from 2001 to 2010 our results reveal two strong predictors primary school enrollment 99 7 posterior inclusion probability in the true model raises export diversification whereas the share of natural resources in gross domestic product 98 6 lowers diversification levels the importance of basic education coverage offers policymakers an opening toward diversifying exports at least in the long run this result is robust to accounting for the endogeneity of income levels by applying an instrumental variable bma method jel c11 f1 f34 o1 o2 o11

trends and cycles in the net barter terms of trade a new approach this study has two objectives first it uses time series techniques including unit root tests to reexamine the classic prebisch singer hypothesis that the relative prices of primary commodities in terms of manufactured goods are characterized by secular deterioration second commodity price movements are decomposed into permanent and cyclical components using the beveridge and nelson 1981 technique the latter information is valuable when assessing the viability of commodity stabilization funds and formulating countercyclical macroeconomic policy responses to commodity booms and busts copyright 1989 by royal economic society

the macro dimensions of food security economic growth equitable distribution and food price stability abstract rather than asking how to cope with hunger and famine the question might be how to escape their threat altogether important in this regard is recognizing that agriculture and the rural economy are greatly influenced by policies and outcomes in the rest of the economy strategies include economic growth with unchanging income distribution and growth with redistribution the latter encourages balanced growth to create non farm employment opportunities while investing in rural infrastructure

inequality of opportunity in sub saharan africa in the last decades inequality of opportunity has been extensively studied by economists on the assumption that in addition to being normatively undesirable it can be related to low potential for growth this paper evaluates inequality of opportunity and the different sources of unequal opportunities in 11 sub saharan africa countries the results indicate that the portion of total inequality that can be attributed to exogenous circumstances that is circumstances outside the control of individuals control is between 30 percent and 40 percent in the countries considered the results also indicate a positive association between total consumption inequality and inequality of opportunity finally this paper addresses a number of methodological issues that typically arise when measuring inequality of opportunity with imperfect data which is the typical case in developing countries

resource intensity institutions and development summary we examine the relationship between resource abundance and several indicators of human welfare consistent with the existing literature on the relationship between resource abundance and economic growth we find that given an initial income level resource intensive countries tend to suffer lower levels of human development while we find only weak support for a direct link between resources and welfare there is an indirect link that operates through institutional quality there are also significant differences in the effects that resources have on different measures of institutional quality these results imply that the resource curse is a more encompassing phenomenon than previously considered and that key differences exist between the effects of different resource types on various aspects of governance and human welfare 2005 elsevier ltd all rights reserved

economic inequality in the arab region the paper uses harmonized household survey micro data to assess the levels and determinants of economic inequality in 12 arab countries it focuses on the sources of rural urban as well as metropolitan nonmetropolitan inequalities and applies the unconditional quantile regression decomposition technique to analyze the welfare gaps across the entire distribution the analysis finds moderate inequality levels with the gini coefficient for the distribution of household real per capita total expenditures ranging between 30 7 in libya and 45 in mauritania differences in households endowments such as demographic composition human capital and community characteristics appear as the main sources of the urban rural welfare gap there is inequality between metropolitan and non metropolitan regions in many countries mainly because of differences in returns to households characteristics and particularly returns to human capital

export instability and economic growth in sub saharan africa empirical research on the relationship between export instability and economic growth in less developed countries ldcs has yielded mixed results while some researchers find a negative relationship between export instability and economic growth others find a positive relationship a third group of researchers finds no significant relationship between export instability and economic growth in ldcs 1 those who find a negative relationship between export instability and economic growth in ldcs stress the negative effect export instability has on the supply of output through the generation of uncertainty in long term planning as well as due to shortages of inputs at critical times during the production process those who find a positive relationship between export instability and economic growth argue that ldcs respond to export instability by reducing consumption this process if repeated over a period of time increases savings and hence the rate of investment those who find no significant relationship between export instability and economic growth argue that ldcs are able to anticipate the fluctuations in export earnings and plan for such fluctuations hence instability in export earnings has no appreciable effect on economic growth c moran investigates the relationships between domestic savings rate and economic growth rate on the one hand and export instability on the other in a sample of ldcs 2 he finds that export instability has no significant long run impact on either domestic savings rate or economic growth rate however over relatively short periods of time export instability has a negative and significant effect on both savings and economic growth rate the negative effect occurs when the negative effects of price and of quantity fluctuations reinforce each other on the other hand when the negative effect of price fluctuations is counterbalanced by the effects of quantity fluctuations export instabil

oligopolistic pricing with sequential consumer search n identical stores compete by choosing prices for a homogeneous good with constant marginal costs consumers search sequentially with perfect recall for the lowest price one class of consumers called shoppers have zero search costs while all other consumers have a positive search cost c there is a unique symmetric nash equilibrium price distribution with the property that it changes smoothly from marginal cost pricing when all consumers are shoppers and or c 0 and monopoly pricing when no consumers are shoppers remarkably as the number of stores increases the nash equilibrium becomes more monopolistic copyright 1989 by american economic association

price behavior and store size in grocery retailing the effects of different store sizes on relative prices are derived for three types of price behavior in grocery retailing a theoretical model is formulated and estimated using prices collected by the central bureau of statistics in norway for the consumer price index the results indicate that recommended prices are adopted to a large extent in all store sizes as the general price levels did not differ significantly however the largest stores are demand oriented in the sense that products with a high share of the average household s budget were relatively lower priced while the opposite was the case for less important products the general markup level was adjusted to capture demand variations over the year i introduction in grocery retailing small stores have exhibited a high exit rate during the last couple of decades at the same time relatively large stores are prominent among the new entries this development is a result of many factors which operate on both the supply and the demand side and has caused the average size of stores to increase and the total number of stores to decrease on the demand side one of the factors which has been proposed to explain the increasing tendency for consumers to patronize large stores is that they offer lower prices however store characteristics other than the general price level may account for the growth of large stores as far as prices are concerned the structure of prices may be more important than the general level of prices the assortment of a grocery retailer usually contains more than a thousand items consequently it is virtually impossible for consumers to consider all prices their attention is concentrated on the prices of a limited number of items which are used as cues for the overall price level demand at the store level is particularly elastic for some products and rather inelastic for others as elaborated by holton 1957 this makes it profitable to use different margins for different products furthermore cross price elasticities within the assortment should be taken into account if the aim is to maximize profits the ability to set prices in accordance with demand relations may vary with store size the largest stores probably have profes

inequality of opportunity in earnings and assets in egypt by most available measures the level of inequality in the mena region including egypt is considered relatively low this regularity applies to both inequality of outcomes as well as inequality o

cartel price announcements the vitamins industry abstract the primary manufacturers of vitamins admitted to participating in international market share agreement cartels for several years during the 1990s their announced price increases appeared in leading trade journals we show that price announcements during the cartel period and the lead times before these prices took effect were fundamentally different in character from price announcements when explicit collusion was less likely these differences are consistent with our model of price announcements where we account for the importance to the cartel of buyer acceptance of or resistance to a price increase acceptance avoids costly market share reallocations among members of an explicit cartel logit estimates show that after 1985 the likelihood of a price announcement is largely driven by the length of time between announcements rather than cost or demand factors suggesting that the price announcements after 1985 stem from cartel meetings

manufactured exports of developing countries and their terms of trade since 1965 abstract during the last 40 years since the prebisch singer terms of trade deterioration hypothesis was first proposed the commodity composition of exports of developing countries has undergone a major change in the direction of dominance of manufactures in their nonfuel exports with strong growth in the volume of their manufactured exports but this did not allow developing countries to escape unequal exchange relations with the industrial countries their barter terms of trade in manufactures showed signs of weakness rather than improvement and clearly failed to reflect the respective productivity trends leading to deterioration in factoral terms of trade

a model of recommended retail prices manufacturers frequently post nonbinding public price recommendations but neither the rationale for this practice nor its impact on prices is well understood i develop a model in which recommendations signal a manufacturer s production cost to searching consumers who then form beliefs about retail prices increasing search makes consumers reject offers for the manufacturer s and competitors products more often and i show that both consumers and the manufacturer prefer more search when the production cost is low and less search when it is high with incentives thus aligned manufacturer recommendations inform consumers via cheap talk and their removal harms both parties

export specialisation and local economic growth this paper aims to provide empirical evidence on whether export specialization or diversification is better for local economic growth using export data from 354 magisterial districts of south africa for 1996 and 2001 we estimate spatial growth regressions that include measures of the degree of export specialization and diversification overall exporting regions outperform other less or non exporting regions also we find that export specialisation rather than export diversification has been associated with local economic growth with specialization in mining and agriculture being especially beneficial our results support the view that specialization in a locality s area of comparative advantage is good for local economic development we also find that localities with higher initial levels of human capital and higher subsequent population growth performed better this is consistent with the belief that policies aimed at strengthening human capital and improving agglomeration economies will enhance local economic development

what will take the con out of econometrics the paper begins with the question of whether leamer s extreme bounds analysis eba really does take the con out of econometrics by analytically demonstrating that the extreme bounds are simply functions of the f statistic for the deletion of variables from a regression we conclude that the information provided by eba represents no advance over that available from traditional methods furthermore there is a degree of arbitrariness in eba which exactly parallels the selective reporting of regressions it was designed to supplant the last part of the paper attempts a positive response to its title by following a well defined series of modelling steps we maintain that cooley and le roy s eba derived conclusions concerning the interest elasticity of money demand owe more to a faulty methodology than to the data this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

on the costs of food price fluctuations in low income countries abstract conventional welfare measures of the costs of food price fluctuations in low income countries are extended to allow for both economic growth and food security effects the analysis reveals that growth and food security effects may dominate more conventional welfare costs of food price fluctuations although estimating the empirical magnitude of the effects is hampered by the lack of consensus on the extent to which food price fluctuations actually reduce economic growth and food security even if the welfare costs of food price fluctuations are high there are many challenges to the design and successful implementation of price stabilization schemes

the fallacy of composition argument is it relevant for ldcs manufactures exports abstract the constraints imposed upon ldcs export growth by international demand have been the subject of a long standing controversy in this paper we present estimates of manufactures export demand functions for 23 ldcs we focus first on the constraints that the international environment imposes upon export growth for an individual ldc to this purpose the small country hypothesis of an infinitely elastic export demand is tested and the claim that supply factors play a determinant role in affecting export performances is then assessed we turn next to the constraints on global ldc growth and ask whether exports from ldcs complete mostly with northern products or are better substitutes with exports from other ldcs this allows us to assess the heuristic value of cline s 1982 remark that a generalized outward shift in the ldcs export supply schedule would be associated with an important decline in prices and would undermine the success of a widespread export led strategy we find that for a representative ldc a large share almost 80 percent of the benefits of devaluation on export revenues are made to vanish when other ldcs competitors pursue similar policies

why suggest non binding retail prices we provide a simple behavioural explanation of why manufacturers frequently announce non binding suggested retail prices for their products our model is based on the assumption that once the actual price for a product exceeds its suggested retail price the marginal propensity to consume suddenly jumps downward we show that this may induce a monopolistic retailer to set the price equal to the suggested retail price in equilibrium although the latter price is non binding this in turn leads to a shift of profits from the retailer to the manufacturer

assessing the economic vulnerability of small island developing states and the least developed countries macro vulnerability of the small island developing states sids as well as of least developed countries ldcs has been an increasing concern for the international community this has led to the design of an economic vulnerability index evi to assess the structural economic vulnerability resulting from natural or external shocks we first explain how vulnerability affects growth development and poverty reduction particularly in small developing countries we then examine how the evi has been designed and how it can be used to compare sids and ldcs we argue that evi is a relevant tool not only for identification of ldcs but also for geographical aid allocation to favour vulnerable countries including ldcs and sids even though not all sids qualify as ldcs

aid and performance a reassessment two visions of aid effectiveness and allocation are compared the first corresponding to the new aid paradigm argues that aid is only effective if domestic policies are appropriate the second in contrast argues that aid effectiveness depends on the external and climatic environment the worse this environment or the more vulnerable the recipient countries the greater the effectiveness of aid cross sectional econometric tests related to gdp growth on two 12 year pooled periods clearly favour the second view the two views can be reconciled through the principle of performance based aid allocation where performance is defined as outcomes adjusted for the impact of environmental factors performance can then be measured in several manners which are subject to comparison one approach would lead one to allocate more aid the worse the external environment is for a given policy and the better the policy is for a given environment

a new look at the benefits of diversification lessons from central america recent trends of export diversification in central america may lower foreign exchange earnings instability there four countries costa rica el salvador honduras and guatemala are analysed across a twenty year period the paper uses united nations commodity trade statistics to explain why costa rica and honduras have enjoyed greater earnings stability in recent years despite the fact that honduras has not greatly diversified its export products and markets despite the growth of new agricultural and manufacturing goods traditional primary products still dominate the countries export portfolios specific products within each of the four broad product category groups contribute to the varied country outcomes summary statistics from the united nations panel data suggest newer agricultural exports have not stabilized guatemalan and salvadoran export earnings while honduras has enjoyed relatively stable banana export revenues and costa rica has benefited from the smooth flow of microelectronic product

a new look at the effects of export instability on investment and growth abstract this paper is concerned with the effects of export instability on investment and growth it is shown that past cross sectional empirical studies on the effects of export instability either in prices or in value terms used an incorrect measure of instability that does not properly take account of the share of exports in gdp using a new instability index and a broad set of conditioning variables it is shown that export instability was positively associated with investment but negatively associated with growth in a large sample of countries during the period from the early 1970s to the mid 1980s

measuring long term inequality of opportunity abstract in this paper we introduce a new family of rank dependent measures of inequality and social welfare consistent with the equality of opportunity eop principle the proposed framework can be used to measure long term as well as short term eop depending on whether we let permanent income or snapshots of income form the basis of the analysis furthermore it allows for both an ex ante and an ex post approach to eop there is long term ex post inequality of opportunity if individuals who exert the same effort have different permanent incomes in comparison the ex ante approach focuses on differences in the expected permanent income between groups of individuals with identical circumstances to demonstrate the empirical relevance of a long run perspective on eop we exploit a unique panel data from norway on individuals incomes over their working life span this allows us to examine how well analysis of opportunity inequality based on snapshots of income approximate the results based on permanent income

on the effects of suggested prices in gasoline markets textabstractthis article analyzes the role of suggested prices in the dutch retail market for gasoline suggested prices are announced by large oil companies with the suggestion that retailers follow them there are at least two competing rationales for the existence of suggested prices they may either help retailers translate changes in international gasoline spot market prices into retail prices or they may coordinate retail prices we show that there is next to the international spot market prices additional information in suggested prices that explains retail prices therefore we conclude that suggested prices help to coordinate retail prices

vertical control and price cycles in gasoline retailing we examine norwegian gasoline pump prices using daily station specific observations from 2003 to 2006 the four big gasoline companies use a vertical restraint that is adopted industry wide labeled price support this moves price control from the hands of independent retailers into the hands of the headquarters retail gasoline prices follow a fixed weekly pattern where we observe de facto simultaneous decision making by the headquarters without knowledge of their rivals prices when every monday around noon they decide to increase pump prices to the same level the price level on mondays corresponds to the recommended prices published by the headquarters of the gasoline companies

manufacturing exports mining exports and growth cointegration and causality analysis for chile 1960 2001 this study examines the export led growth hypothesis using annual time series data from chile in a production function framework it addresses the problem of specification bias under which previous studies have suffered and focuses on the impact of manufactured and mining exports on productivity growth in order to investigate if and how manufactured and mining exports affect economic growth via increases in productivity the study uses johansen cointegration technique the estimation results can be interpreted as evidence of productivity enhancing effects of manufactured exports and of productivity limiting effects of mining exports

variety complexity and economic development abstract we propose a combinatorial model of economic development an economy develops by acquiring new capabilities allowing for the production of an ever greater variety of products with an increasing complexity taking into account that economies abandon the least complex products as they develop over time we show that variety first increases and then decreases in the course of economic development this is consistent with the empirical pattern known as the hump our results question the common association of variety with complexity we further discuss the implications of our model for future research

to what extent do fiscal regimes equalize opportunities for income acquisition among citizens to what extent do fiscal regimes equalize opportunities for income aquisition among citizens journal of public economics

has the development gap between the ethnic minority and majority groups narrowed in vietnam evidence from household surveys using household data for rural northern vietnam between 1993 and 2014 we find that the ethnic minority group continued to lag behind the majority group in various development indicators despite the overall improvement in living standards our regression and decomposition analyses show that the structural differences between the two groups are an important cause of persistent development gap however the nature of structural differences changed over time and no single source of structural difference explains the persistent gap we argue that more minority appropriate policies are needed to lift poor minority households out of poverty further and reduce the development gap

export instability export growth and gdp growth abstract the positive correlation between export instability and export expansion reported by lam in a recent paper is shown to be the result of a bias caused by the manner in which the instability index was calculated and by using data series which end in a year of unusually high exports it is shown that when correction is made for these factors there is no statistically significant correlation between export instability and export expansion or domestic income expansion

free riding and sales strategies for the internet for many products internet sales can free ride oi of the promotional eiort exerted by brick and mortar retailers leading manufacturers to attempt to control the availability and pricing of their products over the internet we examine three categories of products fragrances dvd players and side by side refrigerators our evidence suggests that manufacturers that limit distribution in the physical world use various mechanisms to limit distribution online in particular these manufacturers generally prevent the sale of their products by internet retailers that oier deep discounts furthermore manufacturer websites tend to charge high prices suggesting that manufacturers may internalize free rider issues i introduction while internet sales total only about 1 0 of all retail sales in the united states 1 the rapid growth of internet commerce suggests that this sales channel will become a signi cant factor for many goods managing channel con ict between brick and mortar retailers and internet retailers is an important and growing problem faced by many manufacturers of branded goods manufacturers of branded goods have placed a variety of restrictions on their brick and mortar retailers in an eiort to control freeriding on the sales and promotional eiorts of retailers the emergence of the internet as a new distribution channel requires manufacturers to develop restrictions on internet retailers to control free riding in this paper we investigate empirically the extent to which manufacturers of three types of branded goods appear to control the pricing and

do gasoline prices respond asymmetrically to crude oil price changes the authors test and confirm that retail gasoline prices respond more quickly to increases than to decreases in crude oil prices among the possible sources of this asymmetry are production inventory adjustment lags and market power of some sellers by analyzing price transmission at different points in the distribution chain the authors attempt to shed light on these theories spot prices for generic gasoline show asymmetry in responding to crude oil price changes which may reflect inventory adjustment effects asymmetry also appears in the response of retail prices to wholesale price changes possibly indicating short run market power among retailers

the prebisch singer hypothesis a reappraisal independent of stationarity hypotheses time series behaviour of the relative price of primary commodities raul prebisch i950 and hans singer i950 believed that the long term trend of primary commodity prices was negative the latter in an interesting discussion of the above quandary pp 482 3 viewed rises in primary commodity prices as purely temporary sources of surplus that offered short lived opportunities to increase industrial investment these opportunities were missed by private investors who instead increased primary sector investment in such circumstances because all private activity tends to be governed by the price

ex ante versus ex post equality of opportunity we study the difference between the ex post and ex ante perspectives in equality of opportunity we show that the well documented conflicts between compensation and reward are but an aspect of a broader conflict between ex ante and ex post perspectives the literature that takes the goal of providing equal opportunities as the guiding principle generally considers that this is implemented only when ex post all individuals with the same effort obtain equal success it is easy to believe that ex ante compensation is another natural embodiment of the same idea we show that this is not true