different paths to free trade the gains from regionalism we compare free trade reached through expanding regional trading blocs to free trade accomplished by multilateral negotiation with sunk costs the outcomes are different trade in an imperfectly competitive good flows disproportionately more between the original members of a regional agreement even after free trade is reached they secure a higher welfare level from regionalism than from free trade achieved multilaterally nonmembers however reach a lower welfare level a surprising result is that world welfare during free trade is greater when it is achieved by the regional path we conclude with some empirical evidence from the european union that is consistent with the model

operating flexibility global manufacturing and the option value of a multinational network the multinational corporation is a network of activities located in different countries the value of this network derives from the opportunity to benefit from uncertainty through the coordination of subsidiaries which are geographically dispersed we model this coordination as the operating flexibility to shift production between two manufacturing plants located in different countries a stochastic dynamic programming model treats explicitly this flexibility as equivalent to owning an option the value of which is dependent upon the real exchange rate the model is extended to analyze hysteresis effects and within country growth options we show that the management of across border coordination has led to changes in the heuristic rules used for performance evaluation and transfer pricing

trading for the future signaling in permit markets abstract permit markets are celebrated as a policy instrument since they allow i firms to equalize marginal costs through trade and ii the regulator to distribute the burden in a politically desirable way these two concerns however may conflict in a dynamic setting anticipating the regulator s future desire to give more permits to firms that appear to need them firms purchase permits to signal their need this raises the price above marginal costs and the market becomes inefficient if the social cost of pollution is high and the government intervenes frequently in the market the distortions are greater than the gains from trade and non tradable permits are better the analysis helps to understand permit markets and how they should be designed

import price adjustments with staggered import contracts abstract in this paper we develop a linear rational expectations equilibrium model of staggered import contracts with incomplete exchange rate indexing to explain the slow and moderate adjustment of import prices and quantities to exchange rate changes the existence and stability of the equilibrium are proved by establishing equivalence between the solution to the equilibrium problem and the solution of an optimal linear regulator problem simulation analysis illustrates that the nature of the adjustment of import prices and quantities to exchange rate changes depends crucially on the length of the contract and the length of the delivery lag thus an alternative to the hysteresis explanation of the slow and moderate adjustment of import prices and quantities to exchange rate changes is established the new explanation however has significantly different implications for exchange rate management and trade policies

what are the farm level impacts of malawi s farm input subsidy program a critical review this article provides a critical analysis of the current frontier of research evaluating malawi s farm input subsidy program fisp whose main objectives are increasing maize production promoting household food security and enhancing rural incomes we focus on farm level studies in malawi identifying consistent and contrasting research results in order to draw important policy lessons and provide suggested avenues for future research while national production estimates suggested dramatic increases in maize production and productivity during the years of the fisp the farm level studies found relatively modest increases in maize production and yields over the same period consistent with the farm level results of modest maize production increases there has been a relative increase in real maize prices and the country continued to import maize during most of the subsidy program years furthermore there is evidence that better off households gained substantially more than poorer households when they participated in the program together these findings cast some doubt on the fisp s ability to reduce food insecurity and poverty we propose a number of policy lessons and suggestions for rigorous investigation including research that directly measures the causal impacts of the fisp program on poverty in malawi

benchmarking in the european union emissions trading system abatement incentives abstract this paper investigates abatement incentives for allowance allocation based on output and sector specific benchmarks here called output based allocation or benchmarking special attention is given to updated allocation and we assume that allowances can be traded with other sectors open cap we confirm earlier studies that output based allocation based on ex ante data provide the same abatement incentives as auction or grandfathering and also confirm that output based allocation with updated output and ex ante benchmarks provides as high abatement incentives as auction but constitutes a production subsidy however we also find that benchmarking with updated output and updated benchmarks reduces abatement incentives somewhat but less so than updated grandfathering an allocation rule where the sector cap is prescribed ex ante for instance based on historic emissions and distributed to installations in proportion to their updated production preserves full abatement incentives and avoids some of the costs associated with the determination of benchmarks however this rule also constitutes a production subsidy which decreases with industry concentration if a sector is split into smaller groups each with one benchmark per sub sector benchmarking evolves toward grandfathering since benchmarking is conditioned on production this allocation method protects production from leakage i e migrating to areas where firms face no emissions cost this may actually be the most compelling reason for choosing benchmarking

two monies two markets variability and the option to segment abstract this paper examines the decision to create barriers to arbitrage for a firm selling on two national markets real exchange rate changes affect the incentives to create such barriers since they influence the optimal prices sunk costs of market segmentation imply that the option to segment markets is more valuable the greater the variability of the real exchange rate if a monetary union reduces future real exchange rate variability it could thus stimulate market integration

conditional exchange rate volatility and the volume of foreign trade evidence from seven industrialized countries there has long been a concern over the volatility of exchange rates and their impact on the volume of foreign trade however very little attention has been paid to the choice of an appropriate volatility variable as well as the proper specification of the trade equation the sample standard deviation of the exchange rate has been used as a proxy for exchangerate uncertainty in empirical studies that examine the effects of exchange rate uncertainty on the volume of foreign trade see for example akhtar and hilton 1 and gotur 27 these studies have provided conflicting evidence on this issue it has been argued that use of the sample standard deviation is inappropriate because the empirical distribution of exchange rates is not normal 22 10 in this regard subsequent empirical research 12 36 40 41 11 has employed a moving standard deviation of the rate of change of the exchange rate as a proxy for exchange rate uncertainty chowdhury 11 obtained a clear pattern of results that support the hypothesis that the higher volatility of exchange rates led to a reduction in international trade transactions after the breakdown of the bretton woods system in march 1973 other studies have reported ambiguous results 2 the moving standard deviation used in these studies has been criticized in the literature for a ignoring relevant information on the random process generating exchange rates 18 b underestimating the effect of volatility on decisions 52 c distorting the measurement of the volatility variable by smoothing the series 9 and d injecting an element of arbitrariness into the calculation through decisions about the order m of the moving average 43 3

agricultural technology productivity and poverty in madagascar summary this paper uses a unique spatially explicit dataset to study the link between agricultural performance and rural poverty in madagascar we show that controlling for geographical and physical characteristics communes that have higher rates of adoption of improved agricultural technologies and consequently higher crop yields enjoy lower food prices higher real wages for unskilled workers and better welfare indicators the empirical evidence strongly favors support for improved agricultural production as an important part of any strategy to reduce the high poverty and food insecurity rates currently prevalent in rural madagascar

protecting free trade the political economy of rules of origin the design of rules of origin in free trade agreements ftas arouses spirited lobbying campaigns that mostly escape public attention this article argues that the domestic groups generally most favorable to ftas differ in their preferences over rules of origin industries with large returns to scale favor strict rules of origin to gain scale economies in an fta while industries with multinational supply chains prefer lenient rules of origin to accommodate offshore procurement an econometric analysis of rules of origin in the north american free trade agreement nafta finds tougher rules of origin the higher the external trade protection and the larger the returns to scale and more permissive rules of origin the greater the involvement in foreign sourcing the results suggest that rules of origin may be critical to building domestic coalitions for ftas industry preferences toward rules of origin therefore have important implications for the politics of fta ratification

the imperfect price reversibility of non transport oil demand in the oecd abstract this paper examines the price reversibility of oecd non transport oil demand and its components residual heavy fuel oil non transport distillates and other non transport oil products our purpose is to determine the extent to which the reductions in demand following the oil price increases of the 1970s have been and will be reversed by the price cuts of the 1980s the analysis is based on an econometric model which utilizes price decomposition methods to measure separately the effects of price increases and price decreases these methods allow empirical testing of irreversibility and hysteresis and should be applicable in other areas of economics where asymmetry of response or persistence of effect are evident based on the statistical evidence we reject the conventional specification of demand being perfectly price reversible we conclude that the response to the price cuts of the 1980s has been significantly smaller than to the price increases of the 1970s demand has followed a ratchet process price increases reduced demand substantially when demanders conserved and switched away from oil but price cuts did not reverse this process completely if at all this has important implications for projections of oil demand especially under low price assumptions the oecd s dependency on oil will not increase as much as some analysts may have feared there is however another aspect of imperfect price reversibility the possibilities of adjusting to future price rises may not be as great as they have been in the past the easiest and least costly demand savings have already been made and oil has been replaced by other energy sources in many uses what s done is done

comparisons of initial carbon allowance allocation rules in an o2o retail supply chain with the cap and trade regulation abstract this paper focuses on an o2o retail supply chain in the context of low carbon environment the decision models are constructed under three cases without cap and trade regulation cap and trade regulation based on grandfathering mechanism and cap and trade regulation based on benchmarking mechanism the emission reduction strategies of the supply chain members in the three cases are then discussed the paper compares the effects of the grandfathering and benchmarking mechanisms on the firm s decisions profits and social welfare firstly the results show that the unit carbon quota plays a decisive role in firm s decisions compared with the grandfathering methodology the benchmarking one can more effectively push manufacturers to produce low carbon products and motivate retailers to promote low carbon products secondly it is profitable for the retailer to cooperate with a manufacturer who has lower emission reduction cost simultaneously the retailer will prefer the benchmarking mechanism to the grandfathering mechanism thirdly for the government it is beneficial to use grandfathering mechanism for low carbon emission firms and use benchmarking mechanism for high carbon emission firms also the paper provides government and firms with conditions where the benchmarking allocation method is more suitable for sustainable development the government s decision on benchmarks is a critical factor in maximizing the social welfare

the impact of china s carbon allowance allocation rules on the product prices and emission reduction behaviors of ets covered enterprises abstract it is an important task for china to allocate carbon emission allowance to realize its carbon reduction target and establish carbon trading market china has designed several allocation rules within seven pilot regions what influence those rules may cause is closely related with the enthusiasm of emission trading scheme ets covered enterprises participation in carbon market and more importantly with the mechanism design and sustainable development of carbon market for this purpose the multi stage profit model is developed to analyze the ets covered enterprises product prices and emission reduction behaviors under different allocation rules the results show that first under the rules of grandfathering self declaration and auctioning when deciding the optimal product price and optimal carbon emission reduction those enterprises may focus on maximizing current stage profit however under the rule of benchmarking those enterprises may care more about the impact of current decisions on the profit in next stage second the optimal product price policy is positively correlated with the price of the same kind products consumers low carbon awareness and government subsidy finally along with the increase of carbon price consumers low carbon awareness and government subsidy and the decrease of carbon emission cap those enterprises tend to reduce carbon emissions

towards a new trade policy between the usa and middle east countries estimating trade resistance and export potential at the time of the conclusion of free trade areas ftas between the usa and middle east and north african mena countries there is a lack of literature concerning the measurement of the current us export position with regards to these countries and the us export potential in this area from recent developments of gravity models this paper derives an estimable equation which includes various trade resistance variables notably border effects multilateral resistance as well as specific bilateral effects the model is tested in order to scrutinise the impact of these variables on us exports to mena countries as well as the us export potential in this area to that end a selection of panel data specifications is proposed mainly hausman and taylor models as well as arellano and bond dynamic models results unambiguously indicate that as compared to the other oecd countries the usa suffers from a substantial trade integration deficit with mena countries this is reflected by the strongly negative values of the us mena bilateral fixed effects as well as the high bilateral border effects in addition the estimated actual potential us export ratio to these countries is only 0 76 therefore implementing an fta between the usa and mena countries may allow the former to progressively improve its export position in this area this would also help mena countries diversify their supplying sources

industrial reallocation across us cities 1977 1997 abstract between 1977 and 1997 us employment shifted dramatically in favor of industries that used skilled labor intensively during this same period some cities withered while others prospered this paper examines employment growth in 39 industries across 316 cities to evaluate the importance of learning by doing industry specific location fundamentals human capital externalities and hiring cost explanations in these geographic shifts growth in industries that used skill intensively was particularly sensitive to the presence of local human capital that growth was almost always negatively related to the initial size of the industry within the city implies a limited role for learning by doing and industry specific location fundamentals stories

adoption of agricultural innovations in developing countries a survey this paper reviews various studies which have provided a description and possible explanation to patterns of innovation adoption in the agricultural sector the survey points out that the tendency of many studies to consider innovation adoption in dichotomous terms adoption nonadoption may not be appropriate in many cases where the actual decisions are defined over a more continuous range more attention needs to be given to the socio cultural and institutional environment in area studies so that their interrelation with economic factors affecting adoption can be inferred the presence of several interrelated innovations is another aspect that needs to be considered more carefully in future research since a number of simultaneous decisions may be involved furthermore the possibility of regular sequential patterns in adopting components of a new technological package should be specifically addressed in future studies finally the impact of differential adoption rates on land holding distribution merits attention in future research

persistent trade effects of large exchange rate shocks this paper presents a theoretical basis for the argument that large exchange rate shocks such as the 1980s dollar cycle may have persistent effects on trade flows and the equilibrium exchange rate itself we begin with a partial equilibrium model in which large exchange rate fluctuations lead to entry or exit decisions that are not reversed when the currency returns to its previous level then we develop a simple model of the feedback from hysteresis in trade to the exchange rate itself here we see that a large capital inflow which leads to an initial appreciation can result in a persistent reduction in the exchange rate consistent with trade balance

exchange rate hysteresis large versus small policy misalignments abstract using a monetary model in the spirit of dornbusch 1976 and a sunk cost model of trade hysteresis we show that a sufficiently large policy misalignment can induce hysteresis in the trade balance and thereby alter the steady state real exchange rate hence exchange rate dynamics are path dependent since hysteresis in our model can entail industrial dislocation and the scrapping of sunk assets we suggest that these factors constitute a welfare cost of large policy misalignments that have not been considered formally additionally since the long run exchange rate is path dependent standard empirical tests of exchange rate models may involve a misspecification

carbon emissions trading scheme exploration in china a multi agent based model abstract to develop a low carbon economy china launched seven pilot programs for carbon emissions trading cet in 2011 and plans to establish a nationwide cet mechanism in 2015 this paper formulated a multi agent based model to investigate the impacts of different cet designs in order to find the most appropriate one for china the proposed bottom up model includes all main economic agents in a general equilibrium framework the simulation results indicate that 1 cet would effectively reduce carbon emissions with a certain negative impact on the economy 2 as for allowance allocation the grandfathering rule is relatively moderate while the benchmarking rule is more aggressive 3 as for the carbon price when the price level in the secondary cet market is regulated to be around rmb 40 per metric ton a satisfactory emission mitigation effect can be obtained 4 the penalty rate is suggested to be carefully designed to balance the economy development and mitigation effect and 5 subsidy policy for energy technology improvement can effectively reduce carbon emissions without an additional negative impact on the economy the results also indicate that the proposed novel model is a promising tool for cet policy making and analyses

time intensive r d and unbalanced trade abstract this paper highlights a novel mechanism that generates global imbalances it develops a general equilibrium trade model with one of two countries having a comparative advantage in a sector whose production is characterized by i rapid anticipated demand growth and ii large up front r d costs international funding of the accruing r d costs generates capital inflows in the r d stage which are balanced by subsequent outflows importantly sector level growth does not generate growth differentials between countries typically regarded as rationales of global imbalances additionally it is shown that a trade surplus can coincide with appreciations of the real exchange rate i argue that switzerland s trade surplus which was driven to record heights during 2010 2014 by pharmaceutical exports exemplifies this mechanism calibrating the model to swiss trade flows underpins this argument

emissions trading with updated allocation effects on entry exit and distribution allocation of emissions allowances may have significant distributional and efficiency effects it is well known that cost efficiency may be achieved if allowances are auctioned or distributed in a lump sum manner e g based on emissions levels before the start of the system grandfathering bohringer and lange eur econ rev 49 2041 2055 2005 show that a cost effective outcome can also be achieved if the base year for allocation is continually updated updating given that banking and borrowing are prohibited in this paper we examine whether updating alters the entry and exit conditions for firms compared to grandfathering and how it affects profits for new and existing firms we find that the two schemes function surprisingly similar first the incentives to entry and exit are identical second the total value of free quotas to existing firms based on emissions before the system starts is also identical without any auctioning with updating initial claims for free allowances have a shorter lifetime compared to grandfathering but quota prices are higher as firms anticipate the effect of current emissions on future claims to free allowances the two effects exactly cancel each other out if there is some combination of auction and free allocation the total value of free quotas will always be highest under grandfathering if the auction rate is the same entry and exit incentives are still equal

firm outsourcing decisions evidence from u s foreign trade zones deborah l swenson this article examines the operations of firms located in u s foreign trade subzones to study the responsiveness of outsourcing to international cost changes i find that firms reduce their reliance on foreign inputs when dollar depreciation increases the relative price of imported inputs the effect is pervasive across industries and is economically significant in addition firms that rely more heavily on imported intermediate inputs reduce their overall shipments when dollar depreciation elevates their imported input costs however the magnitude of the shipments effect is economically small suggesting that firms respond to exchange rate movements by adjusting their operations on other dimensions jel f23 f1 i introduction during the nafta debates u s industry argued that it would be placed at a competitive disadvantage if it failed to gain access to mexican parts that benefited from tariff reductions in the absence of such benefits it was argued that u s firms might even move their production off shore at the same time u s trade unions expressed great concern that jobs and high levels of economic activity would be lost if nafta caused a rise in the outsourcing of intermediate inputs although these countervailing concerns have attracted much attention very little is known about the responsiveness of firm outsourcing to relative price changes or about its secondary effects on firm shipments since outsourcing decisions are made at the firm level and appropriate data is rarely available to researchers this article seeks to address this void by analyzing a data set that provides information on these purchasing and shipment decisions recent aggregate evidence indicates that firms are purchasing an increasing portion of their intermediate inputs from their foreign affiliates or from unrelated parties located abroad 1 it is argued that advances in transportation and communications have facilitated the trend toward the dispersion of production activities while the aggregate trends are striking little research has focused on individual firm decisions one exception is brainard and riker s 1997 examination of multinational firms employment choices as they respond to international wage changes brainard and riker conclude that the degree of firm substitution among a firm s numerous foreign affiliates is much higher than that between parent firms and their foreign affiliates which is relatively small this labor market evidence suggests that foreign affiliate labor is not easily substituted for home labor and that the two may even be complements 2 in contrast a higher degree of substitutability is implied by work including feenstra a nd hanson 1996 and irwin 1996 for the united states or campa and goldberg 1997 for the united states united kingdom japan and canada which documents that the usage of imported intermediate inputs has increased in almost all cases since the 1970s 3 this article studies the issue of input sourcing flexibility and its consequences by examining individual firm decisions the analysis is based on the activities of a set of firms located in u s foreign trade subzones i focus on this subset of firms since the u s foreign trade subzones program provides a unique opportunity to examine firm level decisions regarding inputs and shipments the reporting requirements of the foreign trade zones program enable us to view aspects of firm sourcing decisions that are usually unobservable i use two estimation methods to measure the general substitutability of inputs and outsourcing flexibility first i develop a constant elasticity of substitution ces model of input demand i then use nonlinear least squares techniques to estimate the underlying demand parameters implied by the structural equations i then perform a tobit analysis of firm sourcing decisions the benefit of the second form of analysis is that it allows me to study additional determinants of outsourcing and it does not require strong assumptions about the functional form of the production function

can agricultural input subsidies reduce the gender gap in modern maize adoption evidence from malawi abstract nationally representative data for malawi were used to measure the gender gap in adoption of modern maize and to investigate how if at all malawi s farm input subsidy program fisp has impacted the gap regression results show the probability of adopting modern maize was 12 lower for wives in male headed households and 11 lower for female household heads than for male farmers receipt of subsidized input coupons had no discernible effect on modern maize adoption for male farmers receiving a subsidy for both seed and fertilizer increased the probability of modern maize cultivation by 222 for female household heads suggesting the fisp has likely reduced the gender gap in adoption of modern maize in malawi

exchange rate pass through at the product level we use a detailed database to investigate exchange rate pass through at the product level for a large number of countries the empirical analysis suggests that pricing behaviours are dichotomous with complete pass through in around 25 of sectors and significant pricing to market in the remaining ones average long run pass through coef ficient is close to 80 this result hides a strong heterogeneity of pass through behaviours across sectors even when composition effects are controlled for average pass through varies across importing countries the econometric analysis shows that pass through tends to be higher in volatile environments in less developed countries in weakly integrated markets jel classification f12 f31 f41

global value chains a survey of drivers and measures global value chains gvcs emerged as the paradigm for the international organisation of production for most goods and services production is nowadays vertically fragmented across different countries and this reality gave rise to a significant new strand of research in in ternational trade this article starts by discussing the major driving forces of gvcs in recent decades next it surveys the main measures of gvcs accounting for their different scopes and required datasets the artic le highlights the timing of the contributions to the literature signalling their sequential nature and the trend towards more accurate and data demanding indicators

measuring the intensity of competition in export markets abstract this paper develops an approach to measuring the intensity of competition in international markets using readily available data on destination specific values and quantities of exports at the seven digit industry level the intensity of competition a group of exporters faces in a particular export market is measured by the residual demand elasticity the group faces this elasticity is identified by exchange rate shocks which rotate the supply relation of the source country export group relative to competitors located in other countries we apply this method to german exports of beer and us exports of linerboard paper the resulting estimates of market power appear to be plausible and consistent with other indicators of competition e g market shares the number of competitors providing support for the applicability of our framework in measuring competition in international markets

who should be interviewed in surveys of household income summary this study tests the null hypothesis that it is sufficient to interview only the household head to obtain accurate information on household income results show that using a husband s estimate of his wife s income does not produce statistically reliable results for poverty analysis estimates of the wife s income provided by the husband and wife are in agreement in only 6 of households while limiting interviews to one person has the advantage of reducing the time and expense of household surveys this appears detrimental in terms of accuracy and may lead to incorrect conclusions on the determinants of poverty

hyteresis in import prices the beachhead effect this paper shows that temporary real exchange rate fluctuations can have persistent hysteretic effects on trade specifically when market entry costs are sunk sufficiently large exchange rate shocks alter domestic market structure and thereby induce hysteresis this simple result has strong implications for exchange rate theory t rade policy and estimation of trade equations empirical evidence su ggests that the recent dollar overvaluation induced hysteresis in u s import prices namely the aggregate pass through equation of exchange rates to import prices shifted in the 1980s the shift s nature and timing is broadly consistent with the hysteresis hypothesis copyright 1988 by american economic association

does the federal reserve care about the rest of the world many economists are accustomed to thinking about federal reserve policy any economists are accustomed to thinking about federal reserve policy in terms of the institution s dual mandate which refers to price stability in terms of the institution s dual mandate which refers to price stability and high employment and in which the exchange rate and other interand high employment and in which the exchange rate and other international variables matter only insofar as they infl uence infl ation and the output national variables matter only insofar as they infl uence infl ation and the output gap which is to say not very much gap which is to say not very much in fact this conventional view is heavily shaped by the distinctive and pecuin fact this conventional view is heavily shaped by the distinctive and peculiar circumstances of the last three decades when the infl uence of international liar circumstances of the last three decades when the infl uence of international considerations on fed policy has been limited in this paper i will discuss how the considerations on fed policy has been limited in this paper i will discuss how the federal reserve paid signifi cant attention to international considerations in its fi rst federal reserve paid signifi cant attention to international considerations in its fi rst two decades followed by relative inattention to such factors in the two plus decades two decades followed by relative inattention to such factors in the two plus decades that followed then back to renewed attention to international aspects of monetary that followed then back to renewed attention to international aspects of monetary policy in the 1960s before the recent period of benign neglect of the international policy in the 1960s before the recent period of benign neglect of the international dimension this longer perspective is a reminder that just because the fed has not dimension this longer perspective is a reminder that just because the fed has not attached priority to international aspects of monetary policy in the recent past we attached priority to international aspects of monetary policy in the recent past we have no guarantee that it will not do so in the future indeed i will argue in the have no guarantee that it will not do so in the future indeed i will argue in the conclusion that in the next few decades international aspects are likely to play a conclusion that in the next few decades international aspects are likely to play a larger role in federal reserve policy making larger role in federal reserve policy making 1

some dynamic aspects of food standards food standards have existed since the beginning of trade and exchange but have increased and expanded in recent years affecting global and local value chains this has triggered vigorous debates on the impacts on trade and development standards may simultaneously enhance economic efficiency and redistribute rents complicating policy analysis and implying that the economics and the politics of standards are often hard to separate while substantial research has contributed important insights dynamic aspects of standards have not received much attention i present a framework to illustrate some dynamic economic and political aspects of standards in closed and open economies this framework integrates changes over time in preferences implementation costs and protectionist pressures as determinants of standards and suggests explanations for persistent differences in food standards across countries hysteresis in standards can persist due to protectionist motives even if the initial standards were not introduced for protectionist reasons i use some historical cases to document both the persistence and adjustment of standards over time and with international integration

does emission permit allocation affect co2 cost pass through a theoretical analysis abstract carbon emissions trading may result in co 2 cost pass through and its rate is influenced by a number of factors this paper theoretically investigates how emission permit allocation affects co 2 cost pass through rate by developing a nash cournot oligopolistic market equilibrium model we find that the derived co 2 cost pass through rates are consistent when grandfathering and auctioning rules are used for permit allocation which are higher than that for benchmarking rule it has also been found that the magnitude of co 2 cost pass through rate is relevant to the type of definition product market structure and average carbon intensity of the industry we suggest that policy makers first use benchmarking rule to attract firms to participate at the early stage of emissions trading system ets and then take auctioning rule when ets is well developed

economic interests and regional trading arrangements the case of nafta this article examines lobbying in the united states on the north american free trade agreement nafta i argue that economies of scale and production sharing across borders create incentives for firms to seek regional trade liberalization statistical analysis demonstrates that sectors with these characteristics were more likely to lobby for free trade in north america these sectors were also exposed to free trade more rapidly under the tariff phasing schedule in the nafta treaty however corporate restructuring to rescale production for the regional market and to increase offshore assembly presented adjustment costs for u s workers which created divisions between labor unions and their employers i conclude that regional arrangements are an attractive mechanism to liberalize trade for firms in need of larger than national markets to take advantage of economies of scale or to develop production sharing networks

country competition and us overseas assembly to examine the role of international competition in outsourcing production decisions i study the decisions of producers who used the u s overseas assembly program oap to conduct assembly operations in developing countries the evidence which is based on u s oap imports between 1991 to 2000 shows that production costs and corporate tax policies both shaped production decisions while increases in own country costs reduced the size of a developing country s oap shipments increases in competitor costs helped to increase a country s shipments the effects of competitor country cost changes were relatively large as the analysis suggests that a ten percent increase in competing country costs would increase a country s oap outsourcing activities by 5 8 percent while a ten percent increase in competitor country taxes would increase a country s oap exports by 1 6 percent

export propensities and intensities of small and medium manufacturing enterprises in south africa the basic premise of this study is that enterprise linkages export marketing and sunk costs significantly affect the propensities to export and intensities of exporting of small and medium manufacturing enterprises in south africa the hypothesis tested was that small and medium manufacturing enterprises break through into foreign markets with relative ease when involved in linkages because they facilitate information flows thereby easing the international marketing burden on the shoulders of individual enterprise units a theoretical perspective adopted by this study was that small and medium sized enterprises involved in enterprise linkages that have intermediaries are in a better position to enter and exit international markets empirical testing using survey data confirms this this study therefore recommends that export promotion initiatives should take these factors into account there are many possibilities discussed in this study the important point is that there is now clarity about the main hindrances to probabilities of exporting and export intensities of small and medium manufacturing enterprises in south africa by implication export market intelligence should be prioritized

the nature of outsourcing relationships evidence from oap prices i introduction the dramatic growth in international outsourcing has fueled the expansion of international trade and deepened international integration 1 developments in outsourcing attract public attention due to concern that improvements in information technologies enable companies to relocate production or assembly activities to lower cost overseas locations 2 however while international outsourcing allows firms to take advantage of factor price differences grossman and helpman 2005 demonstrate that country cost differences are not sufficient by themselves to guarantee outsourcing as international outsourcing decisions are based on many factors including the costs of search and customization more generally new research in international trade recognizes information as a key element in the globalization process however informational improvements such as reduced communication costs or increasingly sophisticated bar code transmission and management tools may not affect all producers uniformly as ranch and trindade 2003 show product differentiation in consumption or production when combined with informational uncertainty produces a degree of natural protection for this reason information technology improvements are likely to deliver the greatest increases in global integration for those markets where the matching of differentiated partners is critical to the formation of new international partnerships similarly as noted by antras 2003 and bernard et al 2010 the organization of a firm s global operations depends further on factors including the importance of headquarters investments and the degree of product contractibility 3 a key goal of this paper is to study whether outsourcing decisions are consistent with outsourcing models that feature search and adaptation costs to this end this paper studies u s outsourcing conducted under the auspices of the overseas assembly program or oap the oap program was designed to allow firms to avoid tariffs on u s origin inputs that they utilized in final goods they assembled overseas thus while the oap does not include all u s outsourcing activities it does not capture u s assembly of foreign parts or overseas contract manufacturing that is based on u s designs and specifications oap imports provide insight into a wide swath of u s outsourcing and represented 8 5 of u s import value during the sample period since the oap provides tariff benefits to manufacturers who use u s inputs in their overseas production it is administered by u s customs consequently while the oap provides insights into manufacturing outsourcing decisions it does not provide information on developments in services outsourcing since oap exempts u s inputs from tariffs the program requires participating firms to provide detailed information on the u s and foreign content of their outsourcing imports thus oap data records facilitate the precise measurement of cost shocks and trade frictions at the country product level in particular heterogeneity in input choices both across countries and products can be exploited to identify cost pass through and general price responses for outsourcing imports for example year by year pass through can be estimated by regressing yearly oap price changes at the product country level on product country cost changes plots of the year by year coefficients in figure 1 show that the raw rate of oap pass through ranged from 6 to 23 4 however accurate outsourcing pass through estimation requires a theory based estimation framework that controls for economic factors that also influence price decisions this paper adopts feenstra s 1989 passthrough model which is modified to account for the cost structure and tariff treatment facing outsourcing firms who produced products for import under the oap this framework which is based on a bertrand model of competition in internationally differentiated goods focuses its attention on cost pass through and on the degree to which producers emulate the price changes of their competitors

factor market barriers are trade barriers gains from trade in 1992 abstract this paper argues that some factor market barriers act as trade barriers consequently removal of such barriers can create gains from trade even in countries which already have free trade in goods the basic argument is simple for some types of goods international vertical integration is essential to efficient international trade that is to say for such goods it is cheaper to conduct trade on an intra firm basis rather than an inter firm basis for instance in the u s roughly half of all imports are intra firm in such industries those factor market barriers which raise the cost of foreign control of local assets have the effect of raising the cost of trade consequently removing such barriers can lead to gains from trade

the impact of international trade on wages since the early 1980s the us economy has experienced a growing wage differential high skilled workers have claimed an increasing share of available income while low skilled workers have seen an absolute decline in real wages how and why this disparity has arisen is a matter of ongoing debate among policymakers and economists two competing theories have emerged to explain this phenomenon one focusing on international trade and labour market globalization as the driving force behind the devaluation of low skill jobs and the other focusing on the role of technological change as a catalyst for the escalation of high skill wages this collection brings together innovative new ideas and data sources in order to provide more satisfying alternatives to the trade versus technology debate and to assess directly the specific impact of international trade on us wages this volume offers a thorough appraisal of the wage distribution predicament examining the continued effects of technology and globalization on the labour market

business perspective to the national greenhouse gases emissions trading scheme a survey of cement companies in china abstract applying data gathered from 105 cement companies this paper gives an analysis of how business views the upcoming national greenhouse gases emissions trading scheme in china despite a good overall understanding the surveyed companies have not been able to prepare properly for the implementation of this policy they still need training to enhance their related capacity probably due to strict competition it is difficult for cement companies to pass the policy cost on to their clients the sampled companies intend to make self mitigation efforts for compliance it is highly likely that cement companies would mitigate emissions themselves if the carbon price is higher than 108 of the self abatement cost the surveyed cement companies anticipate an increase in the carbon price in china from about 35 yuan t co2 in 2020 to 60 yuan t co2 in 2025 and 90 yuan t co2 by 2030 the analysis provides reference for the smooth introduction and effective implementation of national carbon market in china from the business viewpoint

exchange rate regimes and the price of exchange rate risk abstract we investigate the price of exchange rate risk in the us stock market across exchange rate regimes we find that exchange rate risk is a priced factor and that the sign of the price of risk is affected by the exchange rate regime the results have important implications for risk management policies

incentives and prices in an emissions trading scheme with updating abstract emissions trading schemes where allocations are based on updated baseline emissions give firms less incentive to reduce emissions for a given quota or allowance price nevertheless according to bohringer and lange on the design of optimal grandfathering schemes for emission allowances europ econ rev 49 2005 2041 2055 such allocation schemes are cost effective if the system is closed and allocation rules are identical across firms in this paper we show that the cost effective solution may be infeasible if marginal abatement costs grow too fast moreover if a price cap or banking borrowing is introduced the abatement profile is no longer the same as in the case with an auction or lump sum allocation in addition we show that with allocation based on updated emissions the quota price will always exceed marginal abatement costs possibly misguiding policy makers and investors about abatement costs numerical simulations indicate that the quota price most likely will be several times higher than marginal abatement costs unless a significant share of allowances is auctioned

designing an emissions trading scheme for china with a dynamic computable general equilibrium model abstract to fulfill its copenhagen pledges to control carbon emissions and mitigate climate change china plans to establish a nationwide emissions trading scheme ets in 2016 this paper develops a multi sector dynamic computable general equilibrium model with an ets module to study the appropriate ets policy design including a carbon cap permit allocation and supplementary policies e g penalty policies and subsidy policies the main results are as follows 1 to achieve china s copenhagen pledge the equilibrium nationwide carbon price is observed to be between 36 and 40 rmb yuan per metric ton 2 the ets policy has a cost effective mitigation effect by improving china s production and energy structures with relatively little economic harm 3 various ets sub policies should be carefully designed to balance economic growth and carbon mitigation in particular the carbon cap should be set according to china s copenhagen pledge a relatively large distribution ratio of free permits the output based grandfathering rule for free permits a penalty price on illegitimate emissions slightly above the carbon price and a sufficient subsidy from ets revenue are strongly recommended in the early stages to avoid significant economic loss these designs can be adjusted in later stages to enhance the mitigation effect

subsidies and crowding out a double hurdle model of fertilizer demand in malawi this article uses a double hurdle model with panel data from malawi to investigate how fertilizer subsidies affect farmer demand for commercial fertilizer the article controls for potential endogeneity caused by the nonrandom targeting of fertilizer subsidy recipients results show that on average 1 additional kilogram of subsidized fertilizer crowds out 0 22 kg of commercial fertilizer but crowding out ranges from 0 18 among the poorest farmers to 0 30 among relatively nonpoor farmers this indicates that targeting fertilizer subsidies to the rural poor is likely to maximize the contribution of the subsidy program to total fertilizer use

gender and agricultural productivity implications of the farm input subsidy program in malawi alleviating gender differences in agricultural productivity is vital for poverty reduction while numerous studies suggest that gender differences in agricultural productivity are a result of female farmers having limited access to resources few studies investigate the role of agricultural interventions in alleviating the constraints to input use and subsequently the gender gap in productivity this study investigates whether there are gendered gains in agricultural productivity from participating in an input subsidy program and if these gains help reduce the gender gap using nationally representative data that is disaggregated at the plot level this study analyzes the large scale voucher based farm input subsidy program in malawi focusing on the total value of output per hectare relationships are identified using weighted estimators where the weights are constructed from propensity scores and spatial fixed effects to address the unobservable factors that may confound the relationship between program participation and productivity the findings suggest that participation in the program improves agricultural productivity for both male and female farmers but it does not provide disproportionate help to female famers to overcome gender disparities in agricultural productivity this suggests that female farmers face additional constraints to productivity apart from nonlabor input use

determinants of japanese direct investment in us manufacturing industries abstract a hybrid model of direct investment is developed from an asset portfolio model and an industrial organization model of investment encompassing tests using disaggregated data validate the hybrid model while its two component models are rejected by at least some of the data the exchange rate is found to be an important explanatory variable for direct investment in some but not all of us industries equity purchase is more likely in r d intensive industries in privately held companies and in highly concentrated industries plant and equipment investment is more likely in industries with increasing returns to scale and in industries experiencing large net export deficits with japan jel f21

keiretsu and relationship specific investment implications for market opening trade policy abstract this paper considers the implications of relationship specific investment within keiretsu for policies aimed at opening the japanese market for intermediate goods such as auto parts both vies applied to parts and vers restricting japanese exports of autos cause the keiretsu to import a wider range of parts but of a relatively unimportant type such as seat covers since keiretsu investment and output fall the total value of us parts exports may actually fall for a given value of these exports a vie is less costly for us consumers and japanese producers but a ver is preferred by us automakers

is there convergence across countries a spatial approach we analyze convergence across countries over the last half century as a result of globalizing forces drawing on theories of modernization dependency the world system political trade blocs and the world society we consider economic demographic knowledge financial and political dimensions of convergence using a new methodology we calculate the minimum volume ellipsoid encompassing different groupings of countries finding that during the 1960 2009 period countries have not evolved significantly closer or similar to one another although groups of countries based on their core periphery status or membership in trade blocs exhibit increasing internal convergence and divergence between one another

exchange rates and investment in united states industry the path of the dollar has significantly influenced investment activity in u s industry the effects of both exchange rate levels and exchange rate volatility have been more pronounced in the 1980s than in the 1970s although aggregate investment data mask some of these relationships the effects of exchange rates on investment are most pronounced in the disaggregate data for manufacturing durable goods sectors and nonmanufacturing sectors these relationships also have changed over time in contrast to the conventional wisdom in the 1980s real dollar depreciations appreciations were likely to be associated with investment contractions expansions copyright 1993 by mit press

the impact of farm input subsidies on maize marketing in malawi abstract this paper investigates the effects of subsidised fertilizer on marketing of maize in malawi it uses the nationally representative two wave integrated household panel survey ihps data of 2010 and 2013 the results suggest that subsidised fertilizer on average increases farmers maize market participation as sellers total quantity of maize sold and maize commercialisation in addition participation in subsidised fertilizer programme is found to increase the probability of farmers to be net sellers and increases net quantity of maize sold however the study finds no evidence of effect on net quantity of maize bought and on household maize self sufficiency these results suggest that the farm input subsidy programme has contributed toward an increased level of maize market supply engagement for small farmers and in this sense the policy has the potential to provide the wider external benefits furthermore the results have implication on the sustainability of the subsidy programme policy formulation and design of programmes for the agricultural sector and small farmers in developing countries

haircuts or hysteresis sources of movements in real exchange rates abstract we empirically assess the importance of two sources of real exchange rate movements in models where ppp holds only among traded goods real exchange rate variation results from relative price movements within countries an alternative explanation relies on hysteretic price setting and nominal exchange rate changes using disaggregated price data from 11 oecd nations we find some support for the non traded goods models for example prices of haircuts in canada and the united states are unrelated in the long run we find stronger evidence to support models that emphasize sticky prices transportation costs or other impediments to frictionless trade

offshore outsourcing decision making a policy maker s perspective this research aims at finding the best governing policy for offshore outsourcing of business activities we use analytical network process a multicriteria decision making methodology to create the evaluation framework from the perspective of decision makers stakeholders and influence groups four policy options are evaluated with respect to approximately 50 economic political technological and other factors the model provides both long term and short term views of the outsourcing issue concerned to all parties the all inclusive approach helps policy makers to decide on the best policy and has the potential to ease tension between proponents and opponents of offshore outsourcing

has greater competition restrained u s inflation this paper shows how increased goods market competition affects the behavior of inflation in a multisector economy by raising the price elasticity of demand increased goods market competition theoretically lowers inflation and makes the aggregate price level less sensitive to aggregate demand shocks we find that proxies for the aggregate degree of goods market competition are statistically and economically significant in short run phillips curve models of core inflation evidence indicates that heightened goods market competition has flattened the slope of the short run expectations augmented phillips curve and slightly lowered the nonaccelerating inflation rate of unemployment nairu

overseas assembly and country sourcing choices abstract this paper studies the cross country pattern of u s overseas assembly activities between 1980 and 2000 to examine how outsourcing decisions are affected by changes in country and competitor costs a number of interesting regularities emerge when a country s costs rise the share of u s overseas assembly activities in that location decline conversely a country s share grows when competitor country costs increase while own and competitor country costs affect overseas assembly in all countries the magnitude of these effects is larger for developing countries in many cases the measured cost responses appear to correspond with outsourcing theories that are based on search and customization costs

a ten year rule to guide the allocation of eu emission allowances abstract member states in the european union eu are responsible for national allocation plans governing the initial distribution of emission allowances in the co2 emission trading system including rules governing allocations to installations that close and to new entrants the european commission has provided guidelines to discourage the use of allocation methodologies that provide incentives affecting firms compliance behavior for example by rewarding one type of compliance investment over another we find that the treatment of closures and new entrants by member states is inconsistent with the general guidelines provided by the eu we propose stronger eu guidance regarding closures and new entrants a more precise compensation criterion on which to justify free allocations and a ten year rule as a component of future eu policy that can guide a transition from current practice to an approach that places greater weight on efficiency

economic implications of alternative allocation schemes for emission allowances political feasibility of emission trading systems may crucially depend on the free initial allocation of emission allowances to energy intensive industries in order to ameliorate adverse production and employment effects we investigate the potential trade off between such compensation and economic efficiency for alternative allocation rules where emission allowances are based on either emissions or output based on analytical partial equilibrium and numerical general equilibrium analysis we show that in open trading systems the trade off becomes the more severe the higher the international permit price is whenever the permit price can be considered exogenous to firms or industries the output based allocation rule is distinctly less costly than the emission based rule to preserve output and employment in energy intensive sectors the reason is that emission based allocation of allowances not only provides an implicit output subsidy but also lowers the effective price of emission inputs to regulated firms emissionbased allocation is particularly expensive towards higher international permit prices where the implicit subsidies to emission use in energy intensive sectors produce drastic efficiency losses since they imply high expenditures for carbon permit imports rather than high net revenues from efficient carbon permit exports

what will china s carbon emission trading market affect with only electricity sector involvement a cge based study abstract on december 29 2017 china s carbon trading scheme ets was officially launched and it may be the largest emission trading platform in the world this paper establishes 5 counter measured scenarios based on the recently launched china s national ets market and constructs a dynamic recursive computable general equilibrium model to study the impact of national ets on the economy energy and environment we find that the national ets will have a negative impact on gdp by 0 19 1 44 the national ets can significantly increase the price of electricity however the increase in the prices of other commodities will be much lower than that of electricity as long as the mechanism of the ets market remains unchanged emission reduction per year will increase linearly economic output and co2 emission are sensitive to annual decline factor adf this paper argues that china s national ets market is an effective tool to reduce co2 emission and we suggest that adf could be 0 5 when allocating carbon allowance for the electricity sector this could balance economic output and co2 reduction also it is easy to achieve the goal of double control total amount and intensity in china

exchange rates and the choice of ownership structure of production facilities the aim of this research is to study the effects of real exchange rates on the long term ownership strategies of production facilities of firms entering foreign markets among the strategies considered are exporting exp joint ventures with local partners jv and wholly owned production facilities wos in the foreign country our research takes a first step in modeling the influence of exchange rates on the choice and dynamic adjustment of such strategies the insights obtained from our modeling analysis are then translated into testable hypotheses and empirically verified with the use of firm level data from u s multinational corporations both at the firm and a more aggregate level an insightful result of our model is the identification of a hysteresis phenomenon that characterizes switching behavior between strategies in the presence of switchover cost the magnitude of the hysteresis band which is a measure of the inertia associated with keeping the current ownership structure is affected by a multiplicity of factors such as exchange rate volatility and market power of the entering firm analytical and numerical results on the effects of such factors on the hysteresis band are provided the four testable hypotheses generated from our modeling analysis are rigorously tested with the use of a multinomial logit model on data obtained from the harvard multinational enterprise database and a data set maintained by the bureau of economic analysis the u s department of commerce the empirical results strongly support our insights that relatively depreciated real exchange rates i e weak home currency favor a the jv over the wos and b exp mode over the wos or jv finally we summarize our results into useful guidelines for global production managers

aligning renewable energy targets with carbon emissions trading to achieve china s indcs a general equilibrium assessment abstract this study evaluates the economic impact of achieving china s intended nationally determined contributions indcs through emissions trading scheme ets and renewable energy policy using a computable general equilibrium cge model we explored the behavior of different sectors in the carbon market carbon trade amount carbon price and the economic impact of an emissions cap and trade on the employment and gdp the results demonstrate that the electricity and aviation sectors have relatively higher mitigation costs and tend to be the main buyers of the carbon credits whereas chemicals nonmetal production iron and steel paper and other manufacturing sectors have relatively lower mitigation costs and tend to be the main sellers carbon trading price and market scale are closely related to various factors such as the emissions quota allocation scheme among sectors coverage of participating sectors and the level of renewable energy development emission trading is also confirmed to be an economically efficient approach that contributes to the achievement of emission reduction targets with less economic cost in order to make full use of this approach policy maker should assign an appropriate emissions quota allocation scheme extend coverage of various sectors and promote the expansion of low carbon technologies such as renewable energy

monetary and real shocks productive capacity and exchange rate regimes where producers may diversify internationally international diversification is shown to inuuce a positive correlation between the volatility of productivity shocks and investment in the presence of a phillips curve the expected gnp is lower under a floating exchange rate regime than under a fixed exchange rate regime this result applies both for real and monetary shocks attempts to reduce foreign direct investment by capital controls will tend to reduce welfare without affecting our results regarding the ranking of exchange rate regimes implies that in the presence of market power uncertainty tends to reduce investment in the first part of the paper i demonstrate the international diversi fication of production modifies this result foreign direct investment tends to offset the impact of market power on the concavity of the profit function by weakening the relative price effect associated with output changes and by increasing the flexibility of adjusting the variable input hence international diversification of production is shown to induce a positive correlation between the volatility of productivity shocks and investment the second part of the paper utilizes the framework presented in section i to re examine the welfare ranking of exchange rate regimes in the presence of capital mobility as is well appreciated a one dimensional answer regarding the merits of a fixed exchange rate regime will not do justice to the host of issues relevant for making the choice between exchange rate regimes the second part of the paper focuses on one aspect of the debate the linkages between volatility domestic and foreign direct investment and productive capacity a frequent argument in favour of exchange rate stability relates to the potential cost of exchange rate volatility which may work to increase the cost of international trade and to reduce its volume yet efforts to detect the adverse effects of exchange rate volatility on trade volumes in the last two decades have not delivered clear cut results in fact the experience of international trade among the united states canada europe and japan suggests that there is no natural

the welfare effects of repealing the u s offshore assembly provision abstract this paper develops new estimates of the welfare and domestic production effects of repealing the us offshore assembly provision oap although the controversy surrounding the oap has recently intensified the only such estimates of repealing the oap weredeveloped by finger 1976 the estimates are developed by applying a partial equilibrium trade model of a two stage production process to nineteen productct categories in which oap trade was important in 1986 the paper find that repael of the oap reduces domestic welfare however the effects are small and almost negligible in percentage terms the important effects of repeal are distributional

emigration and wage inequality abstract we look at the implications of labor emigration from a small open economy on pre existing wage gap between the skilled and the unskilled unskilled emigration may worsen the wage gap whereas skill emigration can reduce wage inequality although absolute wages increase with emigration

the effect of allocation above emissions and price uncertainty on abatement investments under the eu ets abstract the european union emission trading scheme eu ets by far the largest in its kind has inspired several other carbon markets in the world based on interviews with plant managers from almost all belgian ceramics lime and cement producers this study describes how manager s perceptions on emission trading affected investment decisions in line with behavioural economics reference dependence is found to explain why free allocation below emissions creates a greater incentive to abatement investment compared to allocation above emissions in the ceramics sector allocation above emissions refrained managers from including carbon gains in payback times this contradicts the famous coase theorem which predicts that free allocation has no effect on abatement incentives the results indicate that auctioning part of the emission rights will reduce barriers to abatement investment carbon price uncertainty is seen as a disincentive for abatement investment by some managers and as an incentive by others intermediate levels of uncertainty add option value to abatement investments because the associated gradual learning adds flexibility in an uncertain carbon constrained future however high levels of uncertainty creating a risk of offshoring even when companies innovate creates an option value to postpone abatement investments narrow framing misperceiving the risk hedging counter cyclicality of carbon costs reinforces the option value to wait therefore policy should aim to reduce price uncertainty for very low and very high carbon prices not for an intermediary price range

exchange rate variability and the export demand for malaysia s semiconductors an empirical study this article examines the effects of exchange rate variability on export demand for semiconductors which is the largest sub sector of electronics industry in malaysia as reported by malaysian industrial development authority mida 2004 the empirical results which are estimated based on the johansen s multivariate cointegration tests and error correction model suggest that there is a unique long run relationship among quantities of export relative price real foreign income and real exchange rate variability the major finding of this article is that the variability of real exchange rate has some effect on semiconductor exports in both the long run and the short run in the light of rapid advances in technology in the global markets for electronics products the findings are useful to policy makers for the design and target of appropriate exchange rate and industrial policies to enhance the export competitiveness of semiconductor industry

linear and nonlinear exchange rate exposure abstract this paper presents a new methodological approach to examine exchange rate exposure which takes account of the role of the market portfolio and macroeconomic variables in exposure regressions exchange rate regimes based on periods of depreciation and appreciation and nonlinear exposure within each regime we show that the stock market s own exposure to exchange rates should be taken into account before considering industry exposure in addition we adjust the exchange rate and the stock market for common economy wide factors that are unrelated to exchange rates within this framework we show that exposure to bilateral exchange rates is statistically and economically important and that industries with extensive international trade are more often exposed than industries with low levels of international trade the signs of exposure coefficients in each regime are consistent with the extent to which an industry exports we also show that nonlinear exposure is often statistically and economically significant interestingly there is little evidence that industries are exposed to a currency basket

trade integration in colombia a dynamic general equilibrium study with new exporter dynamics abstract we study colombia s trade integration over a 30 year period through the lens of a general equilibrium model in which non exporters have access to a risky exporting technology and exporters must invest in accumulating a better exporting technology our model is calibrated to match producer and exporter lifecycles and yields a novel estimate of the various costs of exporting we find the up front costs of starting to export are much lower than in previous analyses but that this technology is quite risky in that most firms that incur the cost do not end up exporting we also find that for existing exporters expanding exports requires sustained export specific investments we then examine the transition following colombia s 89 91 trade reform we show that the relationship between the firm level export intensity and aggregate export intensity disciplines the technology and policy changes accounting for this integration we find that a common decline in tariffs can account for about 75 percent of the growth in exports as a share of manufacturing sales we attribute the remaining 25 percent to an increase in the success of investments in export market access about 10 percent of the increase in trade is accounted for by the endogenous accumulation of an improved exporting technology by existing exporters these changes in policy and exporting technology boost welfare by about 7 1 percent the transition following the reforms is characterized by an overshooting of output and consumption with consumption peaking 15 years after the policy further tariff reductions are expected to increase welfare another 6 2 percent

outsourcing in a global economy we study the determinants of the location of subcontracted activity in a general equilibrium model of outsourcing and trade we model outsourcing as an activity that requires search for a partner and relationship specific investments that are governed by incomplete contracts the extent of international outsourcing depends inter alia on the thickness of the domestic and foreign market for input suppliers the relative cost of searching in each market the relative cost of customizing inputs and the nature of the contracting environment in each country

improving the efficiency targeting of malawi s farm input subsidy programme big pain small gain abstract the farm input subsidy programme fisp in malawi was introduced in the 2005 2006 season against a background of bad weather affecting production and prolonged food shortages vouchers are distributed empowering eligible farmers to exchange them for fixed quantities of inputs at subsidized prices since its inception there has been a debate at national level about whether the fisp s potential has been fully exploited with policy makers exploring options to improve the programme proposals include targeting efficient and productive farmers to maximize returns in this paper we evaluate the effectiveness of these proposed changes to the existing fisp design by utilizing two waves of the lsms isa survey merged with climatic data we estimate how the national demand for agricultural inputs varies according to a variation in the targeting criteria by means of a two stage demand system then we identify more efficient farmers by means of a stochastic frontier approach we observe a mismatch between voucher recipients and efficiency with approximately 60 of vouchers being allocated to the three bottom quintiles of efficiency this mismatch is observed also at the spatial level with more vouchers going to districts characterized by less efficient production while concerns on the distributional impacts of the new criteria are discussed together with some suggestions for spatially diversifying the structuring of the policy and incentivizing crop diversification our results highlight a high substitutability of commercial with subsidized inputs by new eligible farmers consequently simulating the targeting policy variation we obtain an outcome that would lead only to a limited increases in predicted food expenditure ranging from 0 27 to 0 8 and maize production from 0 2 to 1 3 scope for analysing different adjustments in the functioning of fisp are thus proposed to policy makers

gender and the dynamics of technology adoption empirical evidence from a household level panel data very few empirical studies account for the dynamic nature of the agricultural technology adoption decision and none of these explores if this dynamic nature depends on the gender of the decision maker using four waves of a household level ugandan panel data this is the first empirical analysis to account for self learning one s own adoption experience in explaining current adoption decision in a developing country context and the first to study the interaction between self learning and gender technology adoption is defined as adoption of hybrid seed inorganic fertilizer or pesticides our results indicate that the dynamic panel data probit model is superior to its static counterpart in the sense that self learning captured by lagged technology adoption indicators is by far the most important determinant of technology adoption we also find a weaker impact of self learning for female headed households than male headed households female headed households face fewer learning opportunities which produce a lower self learning impact in later periods further exacerbating the gap in technology adoption among male and female headed households

how does gender affect the adoption of agricultural innovations the case of improved maize technology in ghana why do men and women adopt agricultural technologies at different rates evidence from ghana suggests that gender linked differences in the adoption of modern maize varieties and chemical fertilizer result from gender linked differences in access to complementary inputs this finding has important policy implications because it suggests that ensuring more widespread and equitable adoption of improved technologies may not require changes in the research system but rather introduction of measures that ensure better access for women to complementary inputs especially land labor and extension services

output based allocation of emissions permits for mitigating tax and trade interactions the allocation of tradable emissions permits has important efficiency as well as distributional effects when tax and trade distortions are taken into account we compare different rules for allocating carbon allowances within sectors lumpsum grandfathering output based allocation oba auctioning and among sectors historical emissions or value added shares the output subsidies implicit in oba mitigate tax interactions unlike grand fathering oba with sectoral distributions based on value added is similar to revenue recycling with auctioning oba based on historical emissions supports heavier polluters more effectively counter acting carbon leakage but at higher welfare costs less energy intensive sectors are also sensitive to allocation rules

the timing and probability of fdi an application to us multinational enterprises an option pricing model is employed to analyse the timing of fdi assuming that the firm s profits are determined by the attractiveness of both the home and foreign countries and that attractiveness follows a brownian motion an optimal trigger value of fdi is derived the model shows that contrary to the npv rule fdi entry should be delayed the greater the uncertainty of attractiveness in both locations another important result is that mnes do not regard fdi as a risk diversification tool the results of the model were then tested empirically with us fdi data using labour costs as a proxy for the reciprocal of attractiveness the results support the findings of the analytical model

cropland allocation effects of agricultural input subsidies in malawi summary we measure the impacts of malawi s farm input subsidy program on the cropland allocation decisions of farmers in kasungu and machinga districts in central and southern malawi using a two step regression strategy to control for endogenous selection into the program we find positive correlations between participation in the program and the amount of land planted with maize and tobacco furthermore results suggest that participating households simplified crop production by allocating less land to other crops e g groundnuts soybeans and dry beans our findings have implications for policies aimed at promoting both food self sufficiency and crop diversification in low income settings 2011 elsevier ltd all rights reserved

exchange rate misalignments in duopoly the case of airbus and boeing we examine the effect of exchange rate misalignments on competition in the market for large commercial aircraft this market is a duopoly where players compete in dollar denominated prices while one of them airbus incurs costs mostly in euros we construct and calibrate a simulation model to investigate how companies adjust their prices to deal with the effects of a temporary misalignment and how this affects profit margins and volumes we also explore the effects on the long run dynamics of competition we conclude that due to the duopolistic nature of the aircraft market airbus will pass only a small part of the exchange rate fluctuations on to customers through higher prices moreover due to features specific to the aircraft industry such as customer switching costs and learning by doing even a temporary departure of the exchange rate from its long run equilibrium level may have permanent effects on the industry