benefit entitlement and unemployment duration the role of policy endogeneity abstract the potential duration of benefits is generally viewed as an important determinant of unemployment duration this paper evaluates a unique policy change that prolonged entitlement to regular unemployment benefits from 30 weeks to a maximum of 209 weeks for elderly individuals in certain regions of austria in the evaluation we explicitly account for the fact that the program was an endogenous policy response to deteriorating labor market conditions for older workers in certain regions and sectors the main results are i rebp reduced the transition rate to jobs by 17 ii accounting for endogenous policy adoption is important and quantitatively significant

efficient and durable decision rules with incomplete information we compare six concepts of efficiency for economies with incomplete information depending on the stage at which individuals welfare is evaluated and on whether incentive constraints are recognized an example is shown in which an incentive efficient decision rule may be unanimously rejected by the individuals in the economy we define durable decision rules which can resist such unanimous rejection and show that efficient durable decision rules exist

paper or plastic how we pay influences post transaction connection does the way that individuals pay for a good or service influence the amount of connection they feel after the purchase has occurred employing a multi method approach across four studies individuals who pay using a relatively more painful form of payment e g cash or check increase their post transaction connection to the product they purchased and or the organization their purchase supports in comparison to those who pay with less painful forms of payment e g debit or credit card specifically individuals who pay with more painful forms of payment increase their emotional attachment to a product decrease their commitment to nonchosen alternatives are more likely to publicly signal their commitment to an organization and are more likely to make a repeat transaction moreover the form of payment influences post transaction connection even when the objective monetary cost remains constant and when the psychological cost is indirect i e donating someone else s money increasing the psychological pain of payment appears to have beneficial consequences with respect to increasing downstream product and brand connection

job search requirements for older unemployed transitions to employment early retirement and disability benefits we use a recent policy change in the netherlands to study how changes in search requirements for the older unemployed affect their transition rates to employment early retirement and sickness disability benefits the reform becoming effective on january 1 2004 requires the elderly to formally report their job search efforts to the employment office in order to avoid a temporary cut in benefits before the new law was passed unemployed individuals were allowed to stop all search activity at the moment they turned 57 5 estimating various duration models using difference in difference and regression discontinuity approaches we find that for several groups of individuals who are affected by the policy change the stricter search requirements significantly increases their entry rate into employment however we also find evidence of a higher outflow to sickness disability insurance schemes a presumably unwanted side effect of the policy change

extended benefits and the duration of ui spells evidence from the new jersey extended benefit program abstract this paper examines the impact on the duration of unemployment insurance receipt of a politically motivated program that offered 13 weeks of extended benefits for 6 months in 1996 using state level data and individual administrative records from before during and after the program we find that it raised the fraction of claimants who exhausted their regular benefits by 1 3 percentage points had the program run long enough to affect claimants from the first day of their spell the fraction exhausting would have risen by 7 percentage points and the average recipient would have collected regular benefits for one extra week

economic dimensions of household gift giving the purpose of this research was to explore economic dimensions of a consumer gift giving model two dimensions of extrahousehold gift expenditures were modeled the probability of giving and the expected value of the corresponding expenditures data were from 4 139 households in the quarterly interview component of the 1984 1985 u s continuing consumer expenditure survey the results demonstrated that both the probability of giving and the value of annual expenditures for gifts given outside the consumer unit are related to total expenditures a proxy for income family size life cycle stage and education in addition the probability of gift giving is related to the number of female adults ethnicity and urbanization and the value of gift expenditures is related to region extrahousehold gift expenditures appear to be a luxury as income increases gift expenditures increase more rapidly

the role of market forces in assuring contractual performance the conditions under which transactors can use the market repeat purchase mechanism of contract enforcement are examined increased price is shown to be a means of assuring contractual performance a necessary and sufficient condition for performance is the existence of price sufficiently above salvageable production costs so that the nonperforming firm loses a discounted steam of rents on future sales which is greater than the wealth increase from nonperformance this will generally imply a market price greater than the perfectly competitive price and rationalize investments in firm specific assets advertising investments thereby become a positive indicator of likely performance

sacrifice and stigma reducing free riding in cults communes and other collectives this paper presents an economic analysis of religious behavior that accounts for the continuing success of groups with strange requirements and seemingly inefficient prohibitions the analysis does not presuppose any special motives for religious activity rather religion is modeled as a club good that displays positive returns to participatory crowding the analysis demonstrates that efficient religions with perfectly rational members may benefit from stigma self sacrifice and bizarre behavioral restrictions the model also addresses sacrifice in nonreligious social clubs fraternities communes political parties work groups and families

female labor supply following displacement a split population model of labor force participation and job search following permanent layoffs most women search for new jobs but some withdraw from the labor force we develop a joint model of the choice to undertake postdisplacement job search and unemployment durations for searchers and estimate it using data from the 1988 displaced worker survey maximum likelihood estimates of this split population model show that labor force withdrawal is an important factor explaining the distribution of postdisplacement jobless spells the model also allows us to distinguish the effect of any covariate on the decision to engage in postdisplacement search from its effect on search duration single population models obscure this distinction

does consumer irrationality trump consumer sovereignty scholars working on the border of economics and psychology have documented many contexts in which individual decision making is unreliable and might be improved by paternalistic interventions against this mounting body of negative evidence economists default belief in consumer sovereignty has been motivated primarily by theory rather than evidence the goal of the present study is to see whether there is direct evidence supporting economists faith in consumer sovereignty in a simple context we address this question by presenting direct evidence that consumers own purchases generate between 10 and 18 more value per dollar spent than items received as gifts

is there a threat effect of labour market programmes a study of almp in the danish ui system this article focuses on unemployed individuals reaction to compulsory labour market programmes prior to participation in denmark after having received ui benefits for a given period of time continued benefits are made conditional on participation in a labour market programme i estimate individuals reaction to compulsory programmes using legislative changes in the duration of benefits period as identification i find that compulsory programmes do indeed motivate individuals to find employment prior to participation the effect is large and is even comparable in size to the effect of benefits exhaustion found in studies of american ui systems

the impact of the potential duration of unemployment benefits on the duration of unemployment abstract this paper examines the impact of the potential duration of unemployment insurance ui benefits on unemployment in the united states first we use a large sample of household heads to examine differences in the unemployment spell distributions of ui recipients and nonrecipients sharp increases in the escape rate from unemployment both through recalls and new job acceptances are apparent for ui recipients around the time of benefits exhaustion such increases are not apparent at similar points of spell duration for nonrecipients second our analysis of accurate administrative data from 12 states indicates that a one week increase in potential benefit duration increases the average duration of the unemployment spells of ui recipients by 0 16 to 0 20 weeks

to search or not to search the effects of ui benefit extension for the older unemployed abstract in finland the older unemployed can collect unemployment insurance benefits until retirement while the entitlement period for younger groups is two years in 1997 the eligibility age of persons benefiting from extended benefits was raised from 53 to 55 this paper takes advantage of this quasi experimental setting to identify the effect of extended benefits on transitions out of unemployment among the older unemployed we apply a competing risks version of a split population duration model to account for multiple exit routes and the possibility that some of the older unemployed may not be active in the labour market due to pension rules our finding is that roughly half of the unemployed with extended benefits withdraw from job search

money talks an experimental investigation of cheap talk and burned money we experimentally study the strategic transmission of information in a setting where both cheap talk and money can be used for communication purposes theoretically a large number of equilibria exist side by side in which senders either use costless messages money or a combination of the two we find that senders prefer to communicate through costless messages only when the interest disalignment between sender and receiver increases cheap talk tends to break down and high sender types start burning money to enhance the credibility of their costless messages a behavioral model due to kartik 2009 assuming that sellers bear a cost of lying fits the data best

not so voluntary retirement decisions evidence from a pension reform abstract firms may encourage their workers to retire early experience rating of early retirement benefits creates incentives for firms to avoid this we use a pension reform as a natural experiment in order to evaluate the effect of this experience rating the key result is that experience rating of early retirement benefits reduces early exits of older workers

unemployment duration unemployment benefits and labor market programs in sweden abstract standard search theory as well as some empirical evidence suggest that an unemployed individual s probability of entering employment increases as he approaches the time when unemployment benefits are due to expire this pattern may not carry over to a country like sweden where labor market programs are targeted at the long term unemployed at risk of benefit exhaustion the paper examines transitions out of unemployment using data on unemployed individuals in sweden a semi parametric competing risks model for transitions to employment labor market programs and non participation is estimated there is some evidence that the exit rate from unemployment to employment increases as benefit exhaustion is approached

a single ideal point model for market structure analysis computing unsegmented product maps from preference data by means of single ideal point models is commonly thought to be impossible because of indeterminacy problems the authors show that this math

gifts as economic signals and social symbols gift giving has often puzzled economists especially because efficient gifts like cash or giving exactly what a person asks for seem crass or inappropriate it is shown in a formal game theoretic model that gifts serve as signals of a person s intentions about future investment in a relationship and inefficient gifts can be better signals other explanations for the inefficiency of gift giving are advanced and some stylized facts about gift giving practices are described many of which are consistent with the signaling view of gifts

reduction in the long term unemployment of the elderly a success story from finland in finland the elderly unemployed are allowed to collect unemployment benefits up to the age of 60 when they can retire via a particular unemployment pension in 1997 the eligibility age of persons benefiting from this scheme was raised from 53 to 55 we consider changes in the risk of unemployment unemployment durations and the exit states before and after the reform in the duration analysis a flexible treatment design is adopted by allowing for quantile treatment effects we apply three different non and semiparametric methods which all produce robust and coherent results since the reform the group aged 53 54 has had a lower risk of unemployment shorter unemployment durations and higher exit rates to employment and it is no longer distinguishable from the group aged 50 52 we estimate the amount of unemployment benefits saved due to the reform

does unemployment compensation affect unemployment duration abstract we use a flexible hazard rate model with unrestricted spell duration and calendar timeeffects to analyse a dataset including all norwegian unemployment spells during the1990 s the dataset provides a unique access to conditionally independent variation inunemployment compensation we find that a marginal increase in compensation re duces the escape rate from unemployment significantly irrespective of business cycleconditions and spell duration the escape rate rises sharply in the months just prior tobenefit exhaustion while men are more responsive than women with respect to mar ginal changes in compensation women are most responsive with respect to benefitexhaustion keywords unemployment spells business cycles unemployment compensation non parametric duration analysis jel classification c41 j64 the ragnar frisch centre for economic research oslo we wish to thank the re search council of norway for financial support and christian brinck harald goldstein costas meghir espen moen steinar strom rolf aaberge and three anonomyous referees for helpful comments cor respondence to knut roed the ragnar frisch centre for economic research gaustadalleen 21 0349oslo norway e mail knut roed frisch uio no

is the threat of reemployment services more effective than the services themselves evidence from random assignment in the ui system we examine the effect of the worker profiling and reemployment services system this program profiles unemployment insurance ui claimants to determine their probability of benefit exhaustion and then provides mandatory employment and training services to claimants with high predicted probabilities using a unique experimental design we estimate that the program reduces mean weeks of ui benefit receipt by about 2 2 weeks reduces mean ui benefits received by about 143 ana increases subsequent earnings by over 1 050 most of the effect results from a sharp increase in early ui exits in the treatment group relative to the control group jel j650

early retirement policy in the presence of competing exit pathways evidence from pension reforms in finland i study the effects of changes in the eligibility age thresholds for unemployment and part time pensions and the effect of tightening medical criteria for disability pension eligibility in finland particular attention is paid to the spillover effects of the pension reforms these pension reforms jointly raised the average age at which workers leave employment by 3 9 months mainly due to a sharp drop in disability pension enrolment from age 58 upwards and a lower incidence of unemployment at younger ages these effects are heterogeneous much of which is attributable to the spillover effects that vary across individuals

short run money demand abstract the conventional wisdom holds that the short run demand for money is unstable this paper challenges the conventional view by finding a stable demand for m1 in u s data from 1959 through 1993 the approach follows previous work in interpreting long run money demand as a cointegrating relation and it uses goldfeld s partial adjustment model to interpret short run dynamics the key innovation is the choice of the interest rate in the money demand function most previous work uses a short term market rate but this paper uses the average return on near monies the savings accounts and money market mutual funds that are close substitutes for m1 this choice helps rationalize the behavior of money demand in particular the increase in the volatility of velocity after 1980 is explained by increased volatility in the returns on near monies

the magic of the personal touch field experimental evidence on money appreciation as gifts this paper makes use of two field experiments to explore individual effort responses to gifts we extend the literature by looking at nonfinancial gifts and gifts that combine financial and nonfinancial elements with or without adding a personal touch we find that non pecuniary gifts that signal worker appreciation induce reciprocity most importantly we find that there are interaction effects between money and appreciation while money and appreciation are individually effective they only work well together when they are combined with a personal touch this points to the importance of interpersonal elements in gift giving and has important implications for how to effectively elicit worker effort

product quality market signaling and the development of east west trade countertrade a contractual form in which there is a two way flow of goods occupies a position of significance in east west trade in this paper it is shown that countertrade can solve problems which arise when the quality of eastern european products is unknown using the market signaling literature a theory is formulated in order to make predictions concerning the use of countertrade countertrade will be particularly useful when quality information is important but cannot be obtained directly and when a country has a poor quality reputation these predictions are supported by empirical tests

consistent estimation of the impact of tax deductibility on the level of charitable contributions when charitable contributions are tax deductible the marginal price of charitable giving in other consumption foregone per dollar of contributions is generally less than unity further if the income tax schedule is a progressive step function the marginal price of contributions is generally a rising step function of the level of contributions the problem of estimating a contributions demand function for individuals is therefore complicated by the spurious correlation between the level of contributions and the observed marginal price we take this econometric problem into account in estimating a contributions demand function using data from the 1972 73 consumer expenditure survey after comparing our results with those of estimation techniques used by other authors we provide evidence on the impacts of alternative tax policies on charitable giving using our estimates of the model parameters

modeling gift choice the effect of uncertainty on price sensitivity abstractgift giving generates high revenues for retailers it is also marked with significant welfare or deadweight loss in that givers tend to pay more than the receivers valuation previous research has attributed this discrepancy to givers inaccurate predictions of the receivers preferences this research demonstrates that reduced price sensitivity is another important source of the deadweight loss givers use gift prices to signal the importance of their relationship with the receiver in order to demonstrate this mechanism the authors develop a new bayesian gift choice model that captures both preference predictions as well as the signaling value of price the model is estimated on two choice based conjoint studies for gift giving that allow for the manipulation of the giver s uncertainty about the receiver s preferences both studies show the strong signaling value of price especially when givers are uncertain about receivers preferences decomposition of the deadweight loss shows that the s

the threat effect of active labour market programmes in this paper we estimate the threat effect of active labour market programmes almps for a sample of unemployed men in denmark threat effects of such programmes capture the impacts of a system of almps prior to actual participation rational economic agents make search decisions based on the expected discounted value of unemployment and the perceived risk of future participation in programmes may affect job search behaviour early in the unemployment spell we find a strong and significant threat effect which is shown to reduce average unemployment duration by two and a half weeks

how changes in financial incentives affect the duration of unemployment this paper studies how changes in the two key parameters of unemployment insurance the benefit replacement rate rr and the potential benefit duration pbd affect the duration of unemployment to identify such an effect we exploit a policy change introduced in 1989 by the austrian government which affected various unemployed workers differently a first group experienced an increase in rr a second group experienced an extension of pbd a third group experienced both a higher rr and a longer pbd and a fourth group experienced no change in the policy parameters we find that unemployed workers react to the disincentives by an increase in unemployment duration and our empirical results are consistent with the predictions of job search theory we use our parameter estimates to split up the total costs to unemployment insurance funds into costs due to changes in the unemployment insurance system with unchanged behaviour and costs due to behavioural responses of unemployed workers our results indicate that costs due to behavioural responses are substantial

temporary layoffs and split population models this paper develops and estimates a split population model for the duration of temporary layoffs in the german labour market the population being split according to whether a layoff is temporary or permanent a flexible piecewise constant hazard is employed and the recall propensity is used to condition the duration of a temporary layoff the distinction between factors that influence the recall propensity and factors that influence the duration of a temporary layoff is shown to be of empirical significance the results of the paper are used to evaluate implicit contract and search theories of temporary layoffs the paper suggests that implicit contracts can explain the behaviour of unemployed workers with high worker firm attachment whilst search can explain the behaviour of workers with low worker firm attachment copyright 2004 john wiley sons ltd

results of a study of the stability of cointegrating relations comprised of broad monetary aggregates abstract we find strong evidence of a stable money demand relationship for mzm and m2m through the 1990s though the m2 relation breaks down somewhere around 1990 evidence has been accumulating that the disturbance is well characterized as a permanent upward shift in m2 velocity which began around 1990 and was largely over by 1994 taken together our results support the hypothesis that households permanently reallocated a portion of their wealth from time deposits to mutual funds although this reallocation may have been induced by depository restructuring we argue that the substitution could be explained by appropriately measured opportunity cost

the stability of long run money demand in five industrial countries abstract this study provides strong evidence for the stability of long run demand functions for narrowly defined money m1 in five industrial countries u s japan canada u k and west germany using post war quarterly data evidence of stability is examined using two different estimation techniques and through a formal test of parameter constancy designed specifically for cointegrating vectors in the majority of these countries the key to stability is the imposition of a unitary long run income elasticity that is rarely rejected by the data

unemployment insurance and unemployment spells this paper tests the effects of the level and length of unemployment insurance benefits on unemployment durations the paper particularly studies individual behavior during the weeks just prior to when benefits lapse higher unemployment insurance benefits are found to have a strong negative effect on the probability of leaving unemployment however the probability of leaving unemployment rises dramatically just prior to when benefits lapse individual data are used with accurate information of spell durations and the level and length of benefits the semiparametric estimation techniques used in the paper yield more plausible estimates than conventional approaches and provide useful diagnostics copyright 1990 by the econometric society

hiring older employees do the age limits of early retirement and the contribution rates of firms matter we examine the effects of a finnish pension reform on firms incentives to hire older employees the reform restricted the eligibility ages for early retirement and changed the size related contribution rates of firms according to our theoretical model the positive effect on the values of new hires extends to age groups younger than those directly affected by the reform and the effects are strongest in the largest firms these model predictions were confirmed in a difference in difference in differences analysis on the probability of the hiring of workers of different ages in firms of different sizes

do the french pension reforms increase re employment of older unemployed workers abstractthe sustainability of social security financing has pushed authorities to reform their policy to increase the labour market participation of older workers while most of the studies have fo

unemployment duration competing and defective risks this paper examines the determinants of unemployment duration in a competing risks framework with two destination states inactivity and employment the innovation is the recognition of defective risks a polynomial hazard function is used to differentiate between two possible sources of infinite durations the first is produced by a random process of unlucky draws the second by workers rejecting a destination state the evidence favors the mover stayer model over the search model refinement of the former approach using a more flexible baseline hazard function produces a robust and more convincing explanation for positive and zero transition rates out of unemployment

an evaluation of friedman s monetary instability hypothesis in this article i examine what i call milton friedman s monetary instability hypothesis drawing on friedman s work i argue that there are two main components to this view the first component is the idea that deviations between the public s demand for money and the supply of money are an important source of economic fluctuations the second component of this view is that these deviations are primarily caused by fluctuations in the supply of money rather than the demand for money each of these components can be tested independently to do so i estimate an otherwise standard new keynesian model amended to include a money demand function consistent with friedman s work and a money growth rule for a period from 1875 to 1963 this structural model allows me to separately identify shocks to the money supply and shocks to money demand i then use variance decompositions to assess the relative importance of shocks to the supply and demand for money i find that shocks to the monetary base can account for up to 28 of the fluctuations in output whereas money demand shocks can account for less than 1 of such fluctuations this provides support for friedman s view

the effect of unemployment compensation on unemployment duration in germany in west germany during the 1980s law changes cut the level of unemployment compensation for the unemployed without children and extended the duration of unemployment insurance for unemployed aged over 41 analysis of these changes using the german socioeconomic panel shows that transitions from unemployment for those under 49 were particularly responsive to extensions of unemployment insurance the implied elasticity for escapes of men to employment is similar to estimates for men in the united states suggesting that differences in the potential duration of unemployment insurance only partially explain the difference in spell lengths between germany and the united states

purchasing behavior in embedded markets this article explores the concept of market embeddedness and its impact on purchasing behavior in a consumer market embeddedness exists when consumers derive utility from two sources simultaneously from attributes of the product and from social capital found in preexisting ties between buyers and sellers this framework is applied to the home party method of direct sales we find that the degree of social capital present as measured by the strength of the buyer seller tie and buyer indebtedness to the seller significantly affects the likelihood of purchase we cannot tell the precise moment when friendship is formed as in filling a vessel drop by drop there is at last a drop which makes it run over so in a series of kindnesses there is at last one which makes the heart run over boswell 1777 1835