how much damage will climate change do recent estimates two reasons to be concerned about climate change are its unjust distributional impact and its negative aggregate effect on economic growth and welfare although our knowledge of the impact of climate change is incomplete and uncertain economic valuation is difficult and controversial and the effect of other developments on the impacts of climate change is largely speculative the authors find that poorer countries and people are more vulnerable than are richer countries and people a modest global warming is likely to have a net negative effect on poor countries in hot climates but may have a net positive effect on rich countries in temperate climates if one counts dollars the world aggregate may be positive if one counts people the world aggregate is probably negative negative impacts would become more negative and positive impacts would turn negative for more substantial warming the marginal costs of carbon dioxide emissions are uncertain and sensitive to assumptions that partially reflect ethical positions but are unlikely to be larger than 50 per tonne carbon

energy substitution effect on transport sector of pakistan a trans log production function approach abstract transport sector of pakistan is one of the highest fossil fuel consumption and carbon dioxide co2 emission sector as a key user of fossil fuel energy pakistan s transport sector has created many problems i e noise air pollution co2 emissions and environmental problem in this study trans log production function model for pakistan s transport sector is established and input factors of labor capital and energy consumption are comprised the output elasticity of an individual input elasticity between a pair of factors and elasticity of substitution between input factors are analyzed to manage the multicollinearity issue ridge regression is applied at different values of k from 1991 to 2018 the outcomes show that output elasticities and a pair of input factor s elasticities are increasing the elasticities of substitutions between labor energy consumption and capital energy consumption show higher outcomes because of the more elevated amount of substitution elasticities the substitution elasticity between labor and capital starts from 0 9797 to 0 9326 with slightly decreasing trend the outcomes suggest that maximum output can be achieved by increasing capital and energy technologies by allocating the maximum capital in the transport industry energy saving technologies substitution between energy and capital and substitution among capital labor can enhance environmental protection in the above s view function the present study estimates the level of energy saving and co2 emissions reduction under the different scenarios from 2015 to 2018 the policy suggestions of the results are given below

rationality and deterrence this essay explores the relationship between deterrence theory and two distinct notions of rationality associated with it the author argues that the concept of procedural irrationality which is the basis of many critiques of contemporary deterrence theory is not necessarily inconsistent with the instrumental definition of rationality implicit in many models of deterrence he also argues that some recent rational choice models of deterrence are nonetheless deficient in their application of the rationality postulate finally he provides an outline of a possible resolution of the paradox of deterrence

testing deterrence theory rigor makes a difference there is no consensus among scholars on how to test hypotheses about deterrence systematically the disputes are sometimes rooted in differences about theory or sources of data but they are magnified by methodological confusion especially over concepts and operational definitions that produce perverse empirical results serious theoretical errors include inadequate appreciation of the role of uncertainty in deterrence as well as selection biases that undermine empirical tests rigorous examination of our previous work in light of recent criticism discloses very robust findings on the conditions for deterrence success and failure

separability functional form and regulatory policy in models of interfuel substitution abstract counter intuitive results such as positive own price elasticities have been found in some studies of interfuel substitution this paper examines three possible reasons for this problem first including energy materials in petroleum and coal aggregates is found to contribute to incorrect signs second the mathematical properties of the translog function contribute to concavity violations in contrast the linear logit model of cost shares is found to provide more sensible estimates of own price elasticities across alternative model specifications finally natural gas curtailment policies and environmental regulations are found to be significant factors influencing us industrial fuel demand although omission of these factors does not directly contribute to curvature violations

estimates of inter fuel substitution possibilities in chinese chemical industry abstract the chemical sector is a key driver of china s remarkable growth record and accounts for about 10 of the country s gdp this has made the industry energy intensive and consequently a major contributor to greenhouse gas emissions ghg and other pollutants this study has attempted to investigate the potential for inter fuel substitution between coal oil natural gas and electricity in chinese chemical sector by employing a translog production and cost function ridge regression procedure was adopted to estimate the parameters of the function estimation results show that all energy inputs are substitutes in addition the study produces evidence that the significant role of coal in the chinese chemical fuel mix converges over time albeit slowly these results suggest that price based policies coupled with capital subsidy programs can be adopted to redirect technology use towards cleaner energy sources like electricity and natural gas hence retaining the ability to fuel the chemical sector while also mitigating ghg emissions notwithstanding one must understand that the extent to which substituting electricity for coal will be effective depends on the extent to which coal or oil is used in generating electricity the findings of this study provide general insights and underscore the importance of chinese government policies that focus on installed capacity of renewable electricity energy intensity targets as well as merger of enterprises

absorbing a windfall of foreign exchange dutch disease dynamics abstract the permanent income rule is seldom the optimal response to a windfall of foreign exchange such as that from a resource discovery absorptive capacity constraints require domestic investment and investment in structures requires non traded inputs the supply of which is constrained by the initial capital stock this particularly when combined with intra sectoral capital immobility delays adjustment and creates short run dutch disease symptoms as the real exchange rate sharply appreciates and overshoots its long run value optimal revenue management requires investing in the domestic non traded goods sector and a slow build up of consumption accumulation of foreign assets adjusts to accommodate the time paths of domestic consumption and investment

some economics of global warming the greenhouse effect itself is simple enough to understand and is not in any real dispute what is in dispute is its magnitude over the coming century its translation into changes in climates around the globe and the impacts of those climate changes on human welfare and the natural environment these are beyond the professional understanding of any single person the sciences involved are too numerous and diverse demography economics biology and the technology sciences are needed to project emissions atmospheric chemistry oceanography biology and meteorology are needed to translate emissions into climates biology agronomy health sciences economics sociology and glaciology are needed to identify and assess impacts on human societies and natural ecosystems and those are not all there are expert judgments on large pieces of the subject but no single person clothed in this panoply of disciplines has shown up or is likely to this article makes an attempt to forecast the economic and social consequences of global warming due to anthropogenic greenhouse gases and attempting to prevent it

general deterrence between enduring rivals testing three competing models general deterrence unlike immediate deterrence has rarely been analyzed in a systematic comparative manner we outline a research design for doing so by studying the circumstances under which in a set of enduring rivalries challengers are likely to initiate militarized disputes we indicate the conceptual and operational steps necessary to make and empirically compare predictions stemming from three often competing theoretical frameworks rational deterrence a general model of rational conflict initiation and a cognitive psychological model of behavior emphasizing risk orientation and misperception the results of probit analysis on a pooled time series of enduring rivalries since 1945 provide support for hypotheses from each of the different theoretical models

capabilities perception and escalation the evolution of crises depends upon interpreting intentions under uncertainty we model crises as a game of two sided incomplete information players are uncertain about their own payoffs from war because of differences between observable and actual capabilities we derive four hypotheses testing them against crises in europe between 1815 and 1970 we show a nonmonotonic relationship between ex ante observable capabilities and the likelihood of violence in a crisis as well as the ex ante likelihood of a negotiated settlement we answer five questions 1 how do differences in observable capabilities between rivals influence the likelihood of a crisis and the escalation to violence 2 how do intangible capabilities alter the effects of observable capabilities on the likelihood of conflict and violence 3 what do national leaders learn from the responses of their adversaries in crises 4 under what conditions can deterrence succeed 5 under what conditions are the strong likely to give in to the weak or vice versa in a crisis

input substitution effect in china s chemical industry evidences and policy implications abstract the chemical industry is one of the six high energy consuming and emission intensive sectors in china and the chinese government has focused its attention on energy saving and emissions reduction in the sector with the aim of contributing to the objective of energy saving and emission reduction in the sector this article studies the external substitution relationship of capital energy and labor energy using the translog production function and ridge regression the results are as follow the output elasticities of energy labor and capital are positive the substitution elasticities of capital labor capital energy and labor energy are positive and stable and their values are close to 1 which indicates that the three factors are substitutes for one another furthermore based on the above function we measure the level of energy saving and emissions reduction under different scenarios in 2012 policy implications of the results are provided

extended deterrence and the outbreak of war successful deterrence it is argued requires a combination of military capabilities and bargaining behavior that enhances a defender s credibility without provoking a potential attacker hypotheses on the political and military conditions under which extended immediate deterrence is likely to succeed or fail are formulated and tested by probit analysis on fifty eight historical cases the empirical results indicate that 1 the military capability of the defender to deny the potential attacker a quick and decisive victory on the battlefield enhances deterrence 2 a policy of reciprocity in diplomacy and military actions by the defender contributes strongly to deterrence success and 3 a past record of backing down under pressure or intransigence in confrontations with the potential attacker increases the likelihood of deterrence failure

technical change inter factor and inter fuel substitution possibilities in pakistan a trans log production function approach abstract energy consumption in pakistan increased significantly over the last two decades primarily due to industrialization in order to meet the growing energy needs the government adopted short term policies by setting up thermal power projects which are more expensive both in terms of fiscal cost and environmental damages as compared to hydro power projects the former has exposed pakistan to international oil price shocks and environmental degradations this study therefore attempts to analyze technical change using trans log production function by employing non energy factors i e capital and labor and energy factors i e petroleum and natural gas to estimate elasticity of substitution the purpose of the study is to provide policy suggestions to the government on how to achieve high economic growth vis a vis improved energy security and environmental sustainability the results reveal that capital energy and labor energy are substitutes thereby suggesting the need for an increased focus on technological advancement and skilled employment generation to conserve energy and reduce co 2 emission a gradual elimination of energy subsidies which will make energy price reflects its true cost is required to further discourage increased energy consumption and promote capital intensive production methods a scenario analysis based on the elasticity of substitution between capital energy and petroleum gas shows the potential of energy conservation and emission mitigation the results further suggest the importance of a diversified energy supply mix characterized by abundant hydro and other renewable energy resources alongside natural gas

a nested ces approach to capital energy substitution abstract this paper uses the nested constant elasticity of substitution ces production function to estimate elasticities of substitution between capital labour energy and materials over the 1971 1976 period around the initial energy crisis elasticities are estimated for each of the two digit sic industries within us manufacturing using more disaggregate four digit sic data the nested ces function makes it possible to distinguish between engineering and economic elasticities of substitution capital and energy are estimated to be slight engineering substitutes and economic complements labour energy and materials are estimated economic substitutes

what makes deterrence work cases from 1900 to 1980 the use of military force to achieve foreign policy objectives is an enduring feature of international politics force or the threat of force may be used either to change the status quo or to maintain it threatening the use of force to maintain the status quo often takes the form of deterrence defined by patrick morgan as the threat to use force in response as a way of preventing the first use of force by someone else 1 deterrence sometimes succeeds and sometimes fails failures are attested to by numerous international wars of history in the nuclear age a failure could cost us our lives the conditions of successful deterrence thus require thorough logical and empirical analysis

economic growth and the elasticity of substitution two theorems and some suggestions at the beginning of the twentieth century the work of the swedish economist knut wicksell 1901 marked an important advance in our understanding of the relationship between the structure of production functions and income distribution wicksell had asked the following question among many others suppose that the marginal productivities are equal to the remuneration rates of each factor what then should be the form of the corresponding production function he pointed out p 125 that the general integral of the partial differential equation implied by this relationship was of the form y lf kil which meant in turn that the product y was necessarily a homogeneous of degree one function of capital k and labor l as an example he gave a function where the shares of k and l in y were constant and wrote down the function which would be rediscovered decades later by charles w cobb and paul h douglas 1928 however it is only half a century later in robert m solow s nobel prize winning 1956 essay that implications between the structure of the production function and long run equilibrium or disequilibrium of the economy were drawn in his classic article a contribution to the theory of economic growth solow had considered three cases analytically other cases were also discussed geometrically using a phase diagram he had labeled the two first cases 1hlarrod domar and cobb douglas respectively and he referred to the third type of production function as offering a bit of variety it was y ak 2 l 2 2 a particular case of y akp lp 1p in those early days solow had not pointed out to the reader that his cases could have been numbered 0 1 and 2 following the elasticity of substitution of the corresponding production function it would be only five years later in 1961 that with his coauthors kenneth j arrow et al he would find the general form of the two factor constant elasticity of substitution ces production function by integrating the differential equation corresponding to the observed relationship between output per capita and the wage rate solow s third case was indeed highly interesting since it allowed the possibility of everincreasing income per head even without any technical progress indeed solow showed that due to the efficiency of the system entailed by the particular production function he had chosen there existed a threshold for the savings rates s to generate investment per head large enough for income per head to grow forever that threshold was s nla2 where n is the growth rate of the population it was then natural to ask whether one could express that threshold in terms of the elasticity of substitution a the value of that threshold was determined by de la grandville 1989 to be equal to s no3 or where a is k s coefficient in a normalized ces function equal to a in solow s third case where u 2 for any s and n values this relationship gives also the threshold value in implicit form by the solution of ao1 1 log 3q or ilog nls by totally differentiating the last relationship one could observe that the threshold for the elasticity of substitution to entail ever sustained growth was an in klump faculty of mathematics and economics university of ulm helmholtzstrasse 20 d 89081 ulm germany de la grandville department of economics university of geneva 102 boulevard carl vogt ch 1211 geneva 4 switzerland we gratefully acknowledge the comments of seminar participants at stanford university and at the universities of stuttgart hohenheim and munich where parts of the paper were presented also we would like to thank without implicating in any way robert solow for his insightful remarks and an anonymous referee for very helnfuil supgestions wicksell cobb and douglas would no doubt burst with pride if they knew that one of our first year students wrote in a paper of his of course we recognize here a kirk douglas production function

development aid and climate finance this paper discusses the implications of climate change for official transfers from rich countries the north to poor countries the south when the motivation for transfers is ethical rather than strategic traditional development transfers to increase income and reduce poverty are complemented by new financial flows to reduce greenhouse gas emissions mitigation transfers and become climate resilient adaptation transfers we find that in the absence of barriers to adaptation mitigation or development climate change will make isolated transfers less efficient a large part of their intended effect to increase income reduce emissions or boost climate resilience dissipates as the south reallocates its own resources to achieve the mitigation adaptation and consumption balance it prefers only in the case of least developed countries which are unable to adapt fully due to income constraints will adaptation support lead to more climate resilience in all other cases if the north wishes to change the balance between mitigation adaptation and consumption it should structure its transfers as matching grants which are tied to the south s own level of funding alternatively the north could provide an integrated climate compatible development package that recognizes the combined climate and development requirements of the south if the aim is to increase both mitigation and adaptation in the south development assistance that increases the income level can be an effective measure but only if there is an international agreement and the recipient country is not income constrained if the recipient country is very poor development aid may reduce adaptation effort

emissions trading of global and local pollutants pollution havens and free riding abstract in the presence of local sulfur and global carbon pollutants we examine the pollution haven hypothesis and free riding behavior under domestic emissions trading poorer southern countries become pollution havens when free trade opens up whenever sulfur damage functions are linear or when sulfur levels in equilibrium are not higher in the south with global trading of carbon permits the pollution haven effect emerges in equilibrium whenever the convex sulfur damage functions are nonlinear countries that do not participate in a global protocol designed to reduce carbon emissions enjoy double benefits stemming from free riding and cleaner local environments

energy substitution effect on transport sector of pakistan based on trans log production function abstract transport sector because of the growing industrialization and urbanization of pakistan is one of fastest growing sector in terms of output energy consumption and co 2 emission its current performance and future outlook has the potential to leave behind problems related to the global issues of energy security and environmental sustainability the extents to which energy and non energy inputs are substitutable are the core issue in planning and designing of energy policies for this purpose we establish a trans log production function for pakistan transport sector and the input factors capital labor and energy are included output elasticities of each factor and the substitution elasticities between these factors have been estimated and analyzed for the sample period of 1980 2013 the results show higher output elasticity and that all pairs of factor inputs are substitutes because of the higher level of substitution elasticities the results suggest that by allocating more capital in the transport sector the relevant energy saving technology could be promoted thereby realizing the substitution between capital and energy and reduction of co 2 emission as a result it further suggest that by continuous upgrading of the capital substitution between energy and labor can also be achieved and the transition of pakistan transport sector from labor intensive to capital intensive can be realized

technological progress and energy rebound effect in china s textile industry evidence and policy implications abstract although energy efficiency improvement can reduce energy consumption reduction of the effective price will also increase the demand for energy services part of this reduction is then offset because of the energy efficiency improvement the magnitude of this energy rebound effect is one of the important factors that must be considered in the formulation and implementation of energy policies the textile industry is a traditional pillar industry in china it is an important part of the national economy and contributes significantly to international trade this study uses the morishima elasticities of substitution mes model combined with asymmetric energy prices trans log cost function and other econometric methods to establish a framework to measure the rebound effect in china s textile industry the empirical results of this paper indicate that the rebound effect for china s textile industry is 20 991 this reveals that energy efficiency improvement is conducive for energy saving to a certain degree notwithstanding these results also prove that energy efficiency improvement is not the only way for china s textile industry to realize energy saving and emission reduction finally based on the analysis future policy priorities are suggested

preferences for distributional impacts of climate policy what role do people think distributional aspects should play in the design of climate policy the literature assessing climate policies has shown that assumptions regarding peoples distributional preferences for climate change policy impacts are central for policy assessment but empirical evidence for such preferences is lacking we design a discrete choice experiment that varies how climate policies affect the income of future generations living in three geographical regions with distinctly different current and predicted future income levels the experiment is implemented on a sample of the danish population and preferences are modelled in a latent class model our results show that a small majority of the sample 60 hold preferences consistent with inequity aversion with respect to future income effects of climate policies across regions for the same group we find that preferences for co benefits for current generations reflect a form of altruism but not inequity aversion in both cases the altruistic aspects are moderated by an element of preferences for positive outcomes in own region too the remaining classes display preferences with a varying focus on impacts in their own region or simply no support for further climate policy our results provide some support for the inclusion of social preferences regarding distributional effects of climate change policies in policy assessments and hence for the significant impact on policy this inclusion will have

energy security and renewable energy policy analysis of pakistan abstract sustainable energy supply is an important factor for continued economic growth of any society pakistan is among those developing countries which are facing severe shortages of energy now a days the current and past governments in the country have designed various energy policies to fulfill energy demands but could not fill the demand supply gap there has been a shortage of about 5000 mw of electrical supply during summer 2016 a policy for development of renewable energy was framed in 2006 which was aimed to supply sustainable energy to all consumers including those households which have not been supplied electricity and natural gas in rural and far flung areas the policy was extended for implementation in 2011 and is still in use the basis of this policy rests on energy security and self sufficiency social equity and economic benefits this study aims at analyzing renewable energy policy of pakistan and examining and finding the ways to secure energy supplies in future using leap four scenarios business as usual green pakistan nuclear and optimization have been developed to assess the validity of the energy plans the study concludes that green pakistan scenario employing renewable energy technologies having minimum operation and externality costs is the most suitable option in future

the energy demand in the manufacturing sector of pakistan some further results abstract the purpose of this study was to re examine the role of energy in the manufacturing sector of pakistan using a partial equilibrium approach gl restricted cost function along with the factor demand equations were estimated using zellner s iterative procedure higher energy prices do not seem to adversely affect investment in capital substitution possibilities between energy and non energy inputs are very limited and therefore energy price hikes may directly affect the cost of production inter fuel cross price elasticities indicate that there are substitution possibilities between electricity and gas

the escalation of great power militarized disputes testing rational deterrence theory and structural realism realism we test the relative explanatory power of these two theoretical approaches on the escalation of deterrence encounters among great powers from 1816 to 1984 we derive a set of hypotheses from each model operationalize them for systematic empirical analysis and test the hypotheses on 97 cases of great power deterrence encounters by means of probit analysis the results are that the hypotheses derived from deterrence theory receive considerable support whereas none of the hypotheses derived from structural realism are supported in contemporary research on the causes of international conflict the realist paradigm has been the dominant theoretical approach within this broad framework however scholars have developed at least two prominent alternative models of the conditions under which conflict is likely to arise the first approach structural realism 1 focuses on the attributes of the international system while the second deterrence theory is largely dyadic and emphasizes the resolve and relative military capabilities of adversarial states while both theoretical approaches attempt to identify the conditions under which international crises and wars are likely to arise their

rational deterrence theory and comparative case studies several recent books have argued that comparative case studies of crises demonstrate the failure of rational deterrence theory they have offered certain empirical generalizations as substitutes this paper shows that such contentions are unwarranted first the empirical generalizations are impressive as historical insights but they do not meet the standards for theory set out by the most sophisticated case study analysts themselves second the tests of rational deterrence used in the case studies violate standard principles of inference and the ensuing procedures are so biased as to be useless rational deterrence then is a more successful theory than portrayed in this literature and it remains the only intellectually powerful alternative available case studies are essential to theory building more efficiently than any other methods they find suitable variables suggest middle range generalizations for theory to explain and provide the prior knowledge that statistical tests require their loose constraints on admissible propositions and suitable evidence are appropriate and even necessary for these tasks these same characteristics however inevitably undermine all attempts to construe case study generalizations as bodies of theory or tests of hypotheses

a review of the stern review on the economics of climate change the stern review calls for immediate decisive action to stabilize greenhouse gases because the benefits of strong early action on climate change outweighs the costs the economic analysis supporting this conclusion consists mostly of two basic strands the first strand is a formal aggregative model that relies for its conclusions primari ly upon imposing a very low discount rate concerning this discount rate aspect i am skeptical of the review s formal analysis but this essay points out that we are actual ly a lot less sure about what interest rate should be used for discounting climate change than is commonly acknowledged the review s second basic strand is a more intuitive argument that it might be very important to avoid possibly large uncertain ties that are difficult to quantify concerning this uncertainty aspect i argue that it might be recast into sound analytical reasoning that might justify some of the review s conclusions the basic issue here is that spending money to slow global warming should perhaps not be conceptualized primarily as being about consump tion smoothing as much as being about how much insurance to buy to offset the small change of a ruinous catastrophe that is difficult to compensate by ordinary savings

deterrence the elusive dependent variable the testing of theory in international relations requires clearly articulated assumptions the specification of scope conditions rigorously formulated propositions appropriate tests and a valid and reliable data set against which to test the propositions this last requirement has generally been the most neglected dimension of research in this article we examine two prominent studies of immediate extended deterrence by paul huth and bruce russett that do not deal adequately with the problems intrinsic to constructing a valid data set for quantitative analysis t the problems are particularly acute in the testing of theories of deterrence because of the difficulties inherent in identifying deterrence successes which leave few if any behavioral traces and of inferring the intentions of would be challengers our analysis explores these problems and suggests ways of testing theories of deterrence that can reduce the threats to valid inference 2 we would like to thank the canadian institute for international peace and security and

the capital energy substitutability debate a new look over the last twenty years many studies have been made of the elasticity of substitution between capital and labor the reported estimates are highly variable and reveal an apparent dichotomy between cross sectional and time series studies the former suggest that capital and energy are substitutes while the latter suggest the converse all these studies reported allen partial elasticities of substitution we suggest that the morishima elasticity may be a more useful measure for the issues of concern to capital energy substitution we calculate the morishima elasticities from parameters estimated in a selection of earlier studies and find no excessive variability nor any evidence of the time series cross section dichotomy capital and energy are morishima substitutes copyright 1995 by mit press

crime and punishment the role of norms in crisis bargaining in this work i test the proposition that normative standards of behavior can influence state actions in security related conflicts specifically i examine the construction of norms in the settlements of security related disputes and the effects these settlements have on subsequent militarized interactions i argue that dispute settlements alter subsequent crisis bargaining in two important ways first they act as normative referents that alter the interpretation of subsequent crisis bargaining behavior both by identifying a solution to the dispute which alleviates fears of demands for future concessions and by defining a set of acts which both sides consider illegitimate second in combination with the response to their violation dispute settlements inflict reputational costs on states that violate them i test these arguments against a realist theory of crisis bargaining through an analysis of 122 reinitiated international crises between 1929 and 1979 i find strong support for the hypothesis that states can and do construct normative standards that guide their behavior in international crises whereas realist theory receives only mixed support

engineering and econometric interpretations of energy capital complementarity comment in a recent paper in this review ernst berndt and david wood provide a useful clarification of gross and net complementarity pointing out that energy and capital can be gross substitutes in a production subfunction and yet net complements in the aggregate production function using this theoretical proposition they attempt to reconcile the econometric findings of energy capital complementarity with other studies finding energy capital substitutability their reconciliation rests on the finding that those studies finding energy capital substitutability considered only capital k labor l and energy e by omitting materials m one obtains only a gross elasticity the net elasticity which allows for the additional substitution between the kle aggregate and m can indicate energy capital complementarity in fact klem studies generally find energy and capital complementarity the purpose of this comment is to question whether the net and the gross elasticity distinction provides such a reconciliation among the econometric results i agree that this explanation tends to reduce the disparity between the original berndt wood elasticity estimate and griffin gregory yet three independent sources of evidence suggest that the omission of m is not a sufficient explanation and probably not even a major explanation for the disparity of findings first the difference between the gross elasticity in a kle submodel and the net elasticity in a klem model depends critically on the elasticity of substitution between m and kle let us adopt the berndt wood notation and consider their mathematical example which demonstrates the possibility of gross capital energy substitutability as in the griffin gregory study with net capital energy complementarity

the trade off between intra and intergenerational equity in climate policy abstract this paper focuses on two equity dimensions of climate policy intra and intergenerational and analyzes the implications of equity preferences on climate policy and on the production and consumption patterns in rich and poor countries we develop a dynamic two region model in which each region suffers from global warming but also has an inequality aversion over current consumption allocations inequality aversion generally lifts the consumption path of the poor region while the rich region must take a greater share of the climate burden furthermore with inequality aversion the optimal climate policy generally leads to higher investment in clean capital in the north and in dirty capital in the south thereby allowing the south to pollute more and develop faster the optimal policy may even require the poor region to increase emissions relative to the uncoordinated business as usual case introducing local pollution and transfers confirm the main results

a unified theory and test of extended immediate deterrence we present a unified theory and test of extended immediate deterrence unified in the sense that we employ our theoretical deterrence model as our statistical model in the empirical analysis the theoretical model is a straightforward formalization of the deterrence logic in huth 1988 and huth and russett 1984 coupled with private information concerning utilities our statistical analysis suggests that the attacker and defender s decisions are influenced by the balance of forces nuclear weapons defender protege military alliances arms transfers and trade as well as the regime types of those involved many of these findings contradict previous research by huth 1988 and huth and russett 1988 we find that many of the variables involved in the deterrence calculus are nonmonotonically linked to the probability of deterrence success or war we illustrate the results with case studies of the soviet japanese dispute over manchukuo 1937 1938 and the berlin blockade 1948

estimated substitution elasticities of a nested ces production function approach for germany this paper demonstrates an econometric estimation of substitution elasticities of a nested constant elasticity of substitution production function ces between capital energy and labour for the west german industry in the last few years ces production functions have become more important in economic modelling especially for applied general equilibrium models where ces production functions are an important building stone in the literature different results of estimated elasticities can be found this paper investigates three different approaches for nested ces production functions and their estimated substitution elasticities capital energy and labour are estimated as substitutes for the west german industry in the long run

correcting the climate externality pareto improvements across generations and regions many argue that the present generation must reduce consumption to mitigate future climate change however as significant climate change is due to market failure the correction of market failures by definition gives rise to the possibility of pareto improvements in this paper we examine the implications of pareto improvements both within and across generations we employ the representative consumer model rice 10 a global model including different regions to see how we could potentially distribute any benefits across and within generations such that nobody loses the model shows that different combinations of present and future consumption along the pareto improving frontier yield different combinations of capital investment and emissions we also calculate a conventional social optimum while the social optimum by definition is on the pareto efficiency frontier it is not necessarily on the pareto improving segment of this frontier total emissions and hence temperature change vary significantly across different pareto improving scenarios it obviously matters which generations get the utility gain and one of our results is that for pareto improvements where none of the gain goes to the distant future and allowing transfers total emissions will be higher than in the social optimum even without any welfare gain to the distant future total emissions may be lower in the pareto improving scenarios we have considered than under the social optimum if transfers are not permitted moreover in this case carbon taxes differ substantially across regions for all pareto improvements

resolving intergenerational conflict over the environment under the pareto criterion abstract climate change policies create intergenerational winners and losers because the costs come first and the benefits later in such cases kaldor hicks cost benefit analysis seeks potential pareto improvements by showing the hypothetical potential for the winners to compensate the losers via lump sum transfers in their absence once a costly climate policy is actually implemented it unleashes distortions and general equilibrium effects rendering unclear whether kaldor hicks potential improvements lead to actual improvements we study policies which once implemented would pass the pareto test that no generation subsequent to policy action be made worse off than before we develop a stylized climate economy model in which production by the current generation generates pollution which damages production for future generations over time the business as usual bau economy gets increasingly polluted consumption falls and generational welfare levels decline a government introduces costly pollution abatement and finances it via distorting taxes and the sale of debt green bonds pollution levels start to decline generating downstream welfare gains which may be taxed without hurting anyone in a pareto sense to help finance the policy and pay off the debt along the transition every generation faces less pollution consumes more and is happier than if life had continued in the bau world

contrasting rational and psychological analyses of political choice we contrast the rational theory of choice in the form of expected utility theory with descriptive psychological analysis in the form of prospect theory using problems involving the choice between political candidates and public referendum issues the results showed that the assumptions underlying the classical theory of risky choice are systematically violated in the manner predicted by prospect theory in particular our respondents exhibited risk aversion in the domain of gains risk seeking in the domain of losses and a greater sensitivity to losses than to gains this is consistent with the advantage of the incumbent under normal conditions and the potential advantage of the challenger in bad times the results further show how a shift in the reference point could lead to reversals of preferences in the evaluation of political and economic options contrary to the assumption of invariance finally we contrast the normative and descriptive analyses of uncertainty in choice and address the rationality of voting

assessing a disaggregated energy input using confidence intervals around translog elasticity estimates the role of energy in the production of manufacturing output has been debated extensively in the literature particularly its relationship with capital and labor in an attempt to provide some clarification in this debate a two step methodology was used first under the assumption of a five factor production function specification we distinguished between electric and non electric energy and assessed each component s relationship with capital and labor second we calculated both the allen and price elasticities and constructed 95 confidence intervals around these values our approach led to the following conclusions that the disaggregation of the energy input into electric and non electric energy is justified that capital and electric energy and capital and non electric energy are substitutes while labor and electric energy and labor and non electric energy are complements in production and that capital and energy are substitutes while labor and energy are complements

reduction potential of co2 emissions in china s transport industry newhuadu business school research fund china sustainable energy program g 1311 19436 ministry of education 10 jbg 013 national social science foundation of china 71203186

delving into liberia s energy economy technical change inter factor and inter fuel substitution abstract the industrial energy mix of liberia is dominated by petroleum products this has generated serious environmental problems contributing immensely to co 2 emissions and other pollutants in the country this study has attempted to investigate the potential for inter factor and inter fuel substitution between capital labor petroleum and electricity in liberia by employing a translog production and cost function approach ridge regression procedure has been adopted to estimate the parameters of the function due to multicollinearity in the data estimation results show that all inputs are substitutes these suggest that price based policies coupled with capital subsidy programs can be adopted to redirect technology use towards cleaner energy sources like electricity hence retaining the ability to fuel the economy while also mitigating greenhouse gas ghg emissions substitution between energy and labor and energy and capital implies that removal of price ceilings on energy in liberia would tend to reduce energy use and increase capital and labor intensiveness notwithstanding the study seems to show no evidence of convergence in relative technological progress of the four inputs implying that petroleum will continue to play a dominant role in the energy consumption mix of liberian industry while labor investment will continue to outweigh capital inputs finally the findings of this study provide general insights and underscore the importance of policies that focus on installed capacity of renewable electricity energy intensity targets as well as merger of enterprises

the impact of climate change on the balanced growth equivalent an application of fund the stern review added balanced growth equivalents bge to the economic climate change research agenda we first propose rigorous definitions of the bge for multiple regions and under uncertainty we show that the change in the bge is independent of the assumed scenario of per capita income for comparable welfare economic assumptions as the stern review we calculate lower changes in bge between a business as usual scenario and one without climate impacts with the model fund than the stern review found with the model page we find that mitigation policies give even lower changes in bge and argue that those policy choices should be the focus of the research effort rather than total damage estimates according to our results the current carbon tax should be below 55 tc sensitivity analyses show that the stern review chose parameters that imply high impact estimates however for regionally disaggregated welfare functions we find changes in bge that are significantly higher than the results from the stern review both for total damage as for policy analysis with regional disaggregation and high risk aversion we observe fat tails and with that very high welfare losses

a review of the stern review on the economics of climate change how much and how fast should we react to the threat of global warming the stern review argues that the damages from climate change are large and that nations should undertake sharp and immediate reductions in greenhouse gas emissions an examination of the review s radical revision of the economics of climate change finds however that it depends decisively on the assumption of a near zero time discount rate combined with a specific utility function the review s unambiguous conclusions about the need for extreme immediate action will not survive the substitution of assumptions that are consistent with today s marketplace real interest rates and savings rates

an overlapping generations model of growth and the environment this article analyzes the potential conflict between economic growth and the maintenance of environmental quality in an overlapping generations model short lived individuals make decisions which have long lasting effects on both factor productivity and the environment the model provides a theoretical explanation of observed correlations between environmental quality and income whereby economic growth is associated first with declines then improvements in environmental quality it suggests circumstances in which multiple pareto ranked steady state equilibria may arise and in which sustained growth of both capital and environmental quality may occur overmaintenance of the environment analogous to dynamically inefficient overaccumulation of capital may emerge copyright 1994 by royal economic society

output elasticities and inter factor substitution empirical evidence from the transportation sector of shanghai abstract as a major consumer of fossil fuels the transportation sector in shanghai presents a wide range of problems including air pollution noise and traffic congestion this study aims to explore the energy substitution effect based on a trans log production function to evaluate the contribution of each input factor to sectoral output and reveal the substitution possibilities between capital labor and energy to deal with a multicollinearity problem we adopt ridge regression to obtain the coefficient of each variable under the appropriate penalty value the bootstrap method is used for making statistical inferences and the 95 confidence interval is obtained with 1000 bootstrap samples the empirical results demonstrate the following 1 the output elasticities of capital 0 13 0 15 labor 0 24 0 25 and energy 0 43 0 48 are positive and show an increasing trend over the study period 2 the substitution elasticity between labor and energy is the highest among the input factors around 1 0095 with a slight decreasing trend 3 the substitution elasticity between energy and capital ranges from 1 0018 to 1 0021 and the substitution elasticity between capital and labor is infinitely close to 1

rational deterrence theory i think therefore i deter deterrence theories purport to supply the auxiliary assumptions rational choice theories need to predict rational strategic behavior they generally assume that would be initiators are i instrumentally rational 2 risk prone gain maximizers 3 free of domestic constraints and 4 able to identify themselves correctly as defenders or challengers these assumptions are contradicted by empirical studies that indicate that risk prone gain maximizing initiators are relatively uncommon that leaders at times calculate as deterrence theories expect but behave contrary to their predictions and that the calculus of initiators generally depends on factors other than those identified by deterrence theories deductive theories of deterrence are also inadequate because they do not define their scope conditions nor can they accommodate deviation by initiators from processes of rational calculation rational deterrence theories are poorly specified theories about nonexistent decision makers operating in nonexistent environments