causality between fdi and financial market development evidence from emerging markets this paper studies the causal relationship between foreign direct investment fdi and financial market development fmd using panel data from emerging markets most studies of the relationship between fdi and fmd have focused on the role of fmd in the link between fdi and economic growth with no deep understanding of direct causality between fdi and fmd especially in emerging markets where financial markets are in the development stage we document bidirectional causality between fdi and stock market development indicators for banking sector development indicators the relationship is ambiguous and inconclusive care is therefore needed when analysing the relationship between fmd and fdi as results may depend on whether the fmd variables used to evaluate causality are stock market or banking sector development indicators

finance inflation and employment a post keynesian kaleckian analysis the purpose of this paper is to contribute to the post keynesian kaleckian macroeconomic literature we develop a macroeconomic model that explicitly integrates the role of borrowing and cash payment commitments on outstanding debt interest plus principal repayment into the consumption and investment expenditures as well as into the inflation generating process we explore the way that finance influences the distribution effects of inflation in the demand side of a money credit using economy we suggest a new phillips curve that encapsulates the impact of financial commitments on wage and profit claims we argue that high debt and cash payment commitments are likely to be associated with a positive demand side effect of inflation on the rate of employment and that they might be conducive to a negative supply side effect of employment on the inflation rate the author 2011 published by oxford university press on behalf of the cambridge political economy society all rights reserved

wage norms capital accumulation and unemployment a post keynesian view the paper presents a post keynesian view of unemployment it argues first that the effective labour demand need not be downward sloping with respect to real wages and aggregate demand need not be downward sloping with respect to inflation second that there is a broad case for unemployment hysteresis understood as endogeneity of the non accelerating inflation rate of unemployment nairu based on social norms in wage bargaining and on the supply side effects of capital accumulation and third that much as keynes argued capital investment rather than labour market institutions is the key variable to explain changes in aggregate unemployment performance across countries and over time overall the paper advocates a keynesian view of the nairu where effective demand determines unemployment in the short run and the deviation of actual unemployment from the nairu determines the change in inflation in the medium term the nairu is endogenous and follows actual unemployment copyright 2011 oxford university press

a statistical model for condorcet efficiency based on simulation under spatial model assumptions this essay evaluates six single winner multicandidate electoral systems with respect to their tendency to choose condorcet candidates to this end i calibrate a logistic multiple regression model from monte carlo simulations based on a multivariate normal spatial model in which i vary the number of candidates number of dimensions correlation structure and relative dispersion of candidates and voters i investigate additional spatial model variations by comparing further simulation results with predictions of the basic statistical model the results suggest that for many electoral systems condorcet efficiency would increase with perceptual uncertainty of candidates positions and would be low in a polarized society of the voting systems studied approval voting and the coombs systems appear least sensitive to variations in assumptions

a critical reconsideration of the foundations of monetary policy in the new consensus macroeconomics framework monetary policy has become firmly based on the use of interest rate as the key policy instrument and in a one instrument one target framework the approach to monetary policy is closely associated with the new consensus in macroeconomics ncm this paper undertakes a critical appraisal of the role of monetary policy in the context of the ncm after setting out the main features of the ncm there is critical discussion of the role of monetary policy and the ncm framework the discussion covers the nature of the loss function the role of the natural rate of interest and the phillips curve this is followed by a critical evaluation of the is curve in the ncm and the classical dichotomy the paper finishes by asking whether interest rates do have the effects claimed for them

democratic elections and centralized decisions condorcet and approval voting compared with median and coverage locations abstract in this study we focus on the quality of condorcet and approval voting winners using median and maximum coverage problems as benchmarks we assess the quality of solutions by democratic processes assuming many dimensions for evaluating candidates we use different norms to map multidimensional preferences into single values we perform extensive numerical experiments the condorcet winner when he she exists may have very high quality measured by the median objective function but poor quality measured by the maximum coverage problem we show that the approval voting winner is optimal when the quality is measured by the maximum coverage objective and fairs well when the median objective is employed the analyses further indicate that the number of voters and the distance norm may increase while the number of candidates and dimensions may decrease the quality of democratic methods

agriculture in recent development theory abstract this paper is a critical review of recent contributions to the literature on agriculture in development theory it considers and compares the main lines of advance made within neoclassical neo marxian and structuralist approaches recent neo marxian and structuralist studies of agrarian development reveal that traditional agriculture is neither stationary nor efficient that resource allocation cannot be separated from wealth distribution or production organization that forms of surplus appropriation do not necessarily follow the dictates of efficiency that the social relations of production may inhibit accumulation and determine the forms of technological change that the state s role in primitive accumulation is more economic than explicitly coercive political and that political and macroeconomic constraints preclude a simple get the prices right view of the intersectoral terms of trade the thrust of these developments is to challenge both neoclassical and some orthodox marxian formulations of agrarian development issues and add to the insights to be gleaned from a political economy of development

inflation and economic growth in an open developing country the case of brazil this articles studies the relationship between inflation and gdp growth after trade and financial liberalisation in brazil the aim is to provide an explanation for the inverse relationship between economic growth and inflation verified in this economy in the considered period tradeable and non tradeable inflation experiences are studied separately for this purpose the article suggests a model for the relationship between inflation and economic growth under the cost based price approach the model is estimated for the case of brazil confirming the relationships postulated in the article

the spatial interdependence of fdi in latin america summary using a sample of 17 latin american countries with observations during 1986 2006 two forms of spatial interdependence of foreign direct investment fdi are explored 1 surrounding market potential and 2 spatial autocorrelation we find that surrounding market potential has a positive significant effect on net fdi but there is no evidence that fdi is spatially autocorrelated other factors that show a significant positive effect on fdi include control of corruption and exports of raw materials when considering only fdi inflows from the us we find that fdi is spatially autocorrelated and that surrounding market potential is not significant

international competition income distribution and economic growth this paper shows that the neo keynesian case for wage led growth does not generally hold in an open economy model wage increases cause a loss of competitiveness that reduces the trade balance if the economy is relatively open to trade and price elasticities satisfy certain restrictions the worsening of the trade balance more than outweighs the increase in workers consumption thus reducing the growth rate the main theoretical innovation is a flexible markup pricing rule that allows changes in unit labor costs and exchange rates to affect profit margins implications for international relations and class conflict are discussed copyright 1989 by oxford university press

natural resources and economic development new panel evidence the question as to whether natural resources are a curse on economic growth and development is subject to considerable debates and remains controversial using heterogeneous panel cointegration techniques this paper provides a fresh re examination of the resource curse while allowing for cross section heterogeneity and commonalities in the nexus between natural resource abundance and economic development it finds in a sample of developing countries that economies endowed with abundant natural resources tend to develop more slowly than countries with scarce resources natural resources are on average a curse however there is considerable heterogeneity in the effects of resource abundance on economic development across countries perhaps because of differences in the extent of government intervention access to sound money legal structures and the security of property rights the degree of globalization and or corruption

north south growth and the terms of trade a model on kaldorian lines this paper examines equilibrium growth and stability in the world economy using a north south model in which there is assumed to be surplus labor in both the north and south at an exogenously determined level of real wages the model allows for substitution in consumption between primary commodities and industrial goods in the north and treats the cases of both surplus and scarce land in the south in the case of an exogenous shock to the model the north south terms of trade may overshoot its equilibrium value and or converge to this value along a cyclical path there is no guarantee that the adjustment path is stable

democracy political risks and stock market performance this study examines the impacts of democracy and political risk on stock market using annualized panel data for 49 emerging markets for 2000 2012 we find evidence that democracy and political risk do have impact on stock market returns and the relationship between democracy and political risk is parabolic i e there is a threshold level of democracy after which political risk begins to decline also our results suggest that decreases in political risk lead to higher returns

frequency of paradox in a common n winner voting scheme this paper investigates the extent to which a commonly used electoral scheme voting for n candidates when there are n vacancies to fill is likely to lead in practice to paradoxical results two types of paradox are investigated one occurs when an increase in the number of vacancies causes a candidate to drop from the list of winners the second occurs when the condorcet candidate fails to win using a monte carlo study we show that the likelihood of paradox can be substantial and depends critically on the degree of homogeneity of voters preferences and on the number of voters

resource curse or not a question of appropriability this thesis presents three self contained essays focusing on empirical questions in growth and development economics each article addresses specific questions on why countries perform differently in particular i analyse the effect of democracy on economic development the relationship between natural resources and growth and the efficiency of foreign development assistance in the first essay democracy consolidation and growth i analyse the effect of democracy on economic growth in this context i argue that an important aspect to consider is how consolidated political systems are put simply i find that it is not only a question of how democratic countries are but also how long they have been democratic in other words economic performance tends to improve with the duration of uninterrupted democracy the performance of autocracies on the other hand tends to deteriorate over time however for newly established political systems there seems to be a cost of being democratic this implies that democracies only bear their fruit after some time the analysis has important policy implications to overcome initial straits international assistance focused on democratic consolidation may be important and a very good investment in fostering long run development the second essay resource curse or not a question of appropriability together with anne boschini and jesper roine is concerned with the relation between natural resources and economic development for most laymen as well as for most economists it would seem reasonable that countries richly endowed in natural resources also benefit from this wealth however a large literature has found a systematic negative effect of natural resource abundance on economic growth we suggest that this so called resource curse is not determined by resource endowments alone but rather by the interaction between the type of resources a country possesses and the quality of institutions in the country this combination of factors determines what we call the appropriability of a resource the concept of appropriability captures the likelihood of natural resources leading to rentseeking corruption or conflicts which in turn will harm economic development our results suggest that if institutions are good enough the curse may be turned into a blessing this may explain why some countries such as norway and botswana tend to benefit from their resources while others such as angola and sierra leone do not the third and final essay of this thesis foreign sectoral aid fungibility growth and poverty reduction is a contribution to the aid efficiency literature which is concerned with the question of whether aid helps or hinders economic development foreign development assistance is often targeted on specific public expenditure sectors if this aid is not used in the sector for which it was granted e g health education it is said to be fungible and donors may end up financing something completely different from what they intended e g military expenditures the major concern about sectoral fungibility is that the alternative use of aid may be less productive or less socially useful however measuring fungibility is not sufficient to determine whether foreign sectoral aid fungibility is actually harmful what is important is how the funds treated as fungible are used the essay starts by obtaining estimates of fungibility for 57 countries the results suggest that sectoral aid is indeed largely treated as fungible by recipient countries next to assess the economic and health effects of fungibility these estimates are incorporated into an empirical model of aid and growth as well as into a model of aid and infant mortality altogether i find no evidence of more fungible sectoral aid leading to worse performance

democracy and growth in africa implications of increasing electoral competitiveness abstract estimating a 1975 2004 decadal panel data in an augmented production function framework the paper finds that indexes of electoral competitiveness exhibit u shape relationships with gdp growth implying quite different intermediate and advanced level effects of reforms in africa

plurality and runoff systems and numbers of candidates although political scientists have in the last few decades learned much about the abstract properties of multicandidate electoral systems we have accumulated little theoretical knowledge on the ways in which strategic behavior of voters and candidates changes when we move from one voting system to another this essay has illustrated how the relative desirability of voting systems can change when the number of candidates usually considered fixed in such comparisons is taken as endogenous to the voting system in force at the time our main conclusion is therefore that the method of voting must be understood in relation to the total electoral system it is not enough to analyze properties of voting systems in the abstract but also in terms of the interactions that voting systems have with political groups and the constitutional setting

the politics of foreign direct investment into developing countries increasing fdi through international trade agreements the flow of foreign direct investment into developing countries varies greatly across countries and over time the political factors that affect these flows are not well understood focusing on the relationship between trade and investment we argue that international trade agreements gatt wto and preferential trade agreements ptas provide mechanisms for making commitments to foreign investors about the treatment of their assets thus reassuring investors and increasing investment these international commitments are more credible than domestic policy choices because reneging on them is more costly statistical analyses for 122 developing countries from 1970 to 2000 support this argument developing countries that belong to the wto and participate in more ptas experience greater fdi inflows than otherwise controlling for many factors including domestic policy preferences and taking into account possible endogeneity joining international trade agreements allows developing countries to attract more fdi and thus increase economic growth

determinants of firms investment behaviour a multilevel approach this article investigates the determinants of firms investment behaviour using firm data from 101 developing and emerging economies a substantial number of firms does not invest in fixed capital or invests little relative to sales revenue using a multilevel probit model we study what factors trigger investment and using a multilevel heckman selection model we study what factors influence a firm s investment to sales ratio we find that firms investment behaviour has relatively little dependency on a country s macroeconomic setting additionally we find that on average firms that are completely foreign owned have a relatively lower investment to sales ratio finally we find evidence which suggests that the probability of investing is higher for firms located in countries with more control of corruption and we find some evidence which suggests that partially foreign owned firms located in countries with relatively less corruption have a relatively higher investment to sales ratio

the impact of monetary policy on unemployment hysteresis this article investigates the hypothesis that the extent to which hysteresis occurs in the aftermath of recessions depends on monetary policy reactions the degree of hysteresis is explained econometrically by the extent of monetary easing during a recession and by standard variables for labour market institutions in a pooled cross country analysis using quarterly data the sample includes 40 recessions in 19 organization for economic co operation and development oecd countries for which the required data is available the time period lasts for the period from 1980 to 2007 this article builds on ball 1999 and extends the sample of countries the time period under investigation and the set of control variables

the structure of voter preferences the 1921 1925 1973 and 1975 northern irish parliamentary elections this article applies preference assumptions derived from the axioms of lexicographic utility to four of northern ireland s parliamentary elections the results are compared to those obtained from application of analogous spatial assumptions the principal findings are that rational choice based voting models are relevant to the northern irish electorate and that voters there display patterns of behavior consistent with both lexicographic and spatial preference assumptions

unemployment wage bargaining and capital labour substitution many economists believe that capital accumulation technical progress and labour force expansion have no lasting effect on unemployment this view rests on the empirically doubtful assumption that the elasticity of substitution between labour and capital is equal to unity i e production is cobb douglas using a simple model based on the work of layard nickell and jackman this paper demonstrates that with a lower elasticity of substitution the equilibrium unemployment rate is affected by all of the above factors it considers briefly how capital accumulation may be endogenised and what long run implications this has for unemployment copyright 1999 by oxford university press

political governance civil liberties and human capital evaluating their effect on foreign direct investment in emerging and developing economies we study the influence of a country s political governance on its attractiveness to foreign direct investors we argue that democracy is not a unidimensional concept and that the effect of host country political governance on incoming foreign direct investment fdi differs depending on whether fdi originates from a democratic or an autocratic country we also hypothesize that the effect of civil liberties depends on the motivations of investing multinational enterprises mnes and that human capital moderates this relationship we test our hypotheses on a sample of 35 000 investments in emerging and developing countries between 2003 and 2013

information asymmetry and international strategic alliances abstract this paper examines how information asymmetry affects cross border strategic alliance formation by us firms over the period 2000 2008 we construct a measure information costs based on both geographical distance and the proportion of worldwide gdp the partner s home country represents consistent with our expectations we find an inverse association between information costs and cross border strategic alliances when considering the proportion of alliances formed with publicly quoted overseas partners we find this is unaffected by the level of information costs but rather the level of stock market development tax rate and general economic conditions information costs are however significantly negatively related to alliances with overseas private organizations our results offer clear support for the on going importance of information asymmetry in corporate decision making

growth distribution and inflation a centennial synthesis microeconomics at harvard a little more than a decade ago having become disenchanted with neoclassical economics i suggested to my students that the very neoclassical course i had just taught provided one way of characterising the workings of a capitalist economy but hardly the only way after a year of utility maximisation partial and general equili brium pareto optimality and the associated agonies of lagrangians hessians jacobians and fixed point theorems my students were able to contain their enthusiasm for this news they had expected not one way of looking at the world but at the very least a magical key to knowledge and wisdom it is probably accurate to say that my message was not received at all i shall always remember the incomprehension etched on their faces the next year the last i was to teach theory in that incarnation i decided to present at least a sketch of an alternative to the neoclassical orthodoxy i soon discovered there were at least two foundations on which to build one going back to marx who died one hundred years ago the other deriving from keynes whose birth centenary we celebrate this year these two approaches it was clear were as different from each other as from the neoclassical approach the analysis of neo keynesian neo marxian and neoclassical theories has been a major focus of my research ever since and provides the framework for these lectures 1

does foreign aid mitigate the adverse effect of expropriation risk on foreign direct investment abstract we construct a model of fdi risk and aid where a country loses access to fdi and aid if the country expropriates fdi we show that i the threat of expropriation leads to under investment ii the optimal level of fdi decreases as the risk of expropriation rises and iii aid mitigates the adverse effect of expropriation risk on fdi the empirical analysis employs data for 35 low income countries and 28 countries in sub saharan africa over the period 1983 2004 we find that risk has a negative effect on fdi and that aid mitigates but cannot eliminate the adverse effect of risk

aggregate demand conflict and capacity in the inflationary process this paper focuses on an alternative perspective on inflation to that of the non accelerating inflation rate of unemployment nairu it indicates that there are no automatic forces leading to a level of aggregate demand consistent with constant inflation inflationary pressures arise from conflict over income shares and from cost elements with the price of raw materials especially oil being the most important there are supply side factors impinging on the inflationary process which arise from the level of productive capacity relative to aggregate demand the supply side constraints are viewed as arising from capacity constraints rather than from the operation of the labour market copyright 2005 oxford university press

strategic decisions under one stage multi candidate voting systems we have seen that under the assumptions of this study the problem of maximizing a voter s total utility for a number of one stage decision rules for multi candidate elections may be specified as linear or quadratic programs potentially optimal strategies emerge as extreme points of the feasible region in the sense that no other strategies can be uniquely optimal categorical approval borda and z score decision rules are all minimal in the sense that for each the feasible region with abstentions excepted consists entirely of potentially uniquely optimal strategies for each of these decision rules we have determined the optimal strategies explicitly in terms of the voter s utility function among the minimal voting systems studies we argue that the voter s task of estimating his optimal strategy is least difficult under approval voting

capital controls and foreign direct investment abstract this paper examines the effect of three types of capital control policies on fdi a the existence of multiple exchange rates b restrictions on capital account and c restrictions on the repatriation of export proceeds we find that the impact of capital controls on fdi varies by region and has changed over time in the 1970s and 1980s none of the policies had a significant impact on fdi in the 1990s all three were significant furthermore capital controls have no effect on fdi to sub saharan africa and the middle east but affects fdi to east asia and latin america adversely

reversal of fortunes democratic institutions and foreign direct investment inflows to developing countries does increased democracy promote or jeopardize foreign direct investment fdi inflows to less developed countries we argue that democratic institutions have conflicting effects on fdi inflows on the one hand democratic institutions hinder fdi inflows by limiting the oligopolistic or monopolistic behaviors of multinational enterprises facilitating indigenous businesses pursuit of protection from foreign capital and constraining host governments ability to offer generous financial and fiscal incentives to foreign investors on the other hand democratic institutions promote fdi inflows because they tend to ensure more credible property rights protection reducing risks and transaction costs for foreign investors hence the net effect of democracy on fdi inflows is contingent on the relative strength of these two competing forces our argument reconciles conflicting theoretical expectations in the existing literature empirical analyses of fifty three developing countries from 1982 to 1995 substantiate our claims we find that both property rights protection and democracy related property rights protection encourage fdi inflows after controlling for their positive effect through property rights protection democratic institutions reduce fdi inflows these results are robust against alternative model specifications statistical estimators and variable measurements

the long run determinants of north south terms of trade and some recent empirical evidence abstract this paper reviews some recent evidence of the long run decline in the terms of trade of primary commodities versus manufactures in the context of north south trade this evidence is evaluated in the light of competing explanations of the sources of the observed long run trends in the context of a model of north south trade which includes a general resource labor and capital in the north and specific factors in a dual economy model of the south changes in factor supply sectoral and factoral bias in technical change biased demand conditions changes in the pattern of protection and institutional elements all play a role in determining the evolution of commodity and factor prices the lewis hypothesis of sectoral bias in the pattern of technical change towards temperate agriculture in the north and against tropical agriculture in the south is then reexamined in the light of the recent empirical evidence on terms of trade movements and some sketchy evidence presented on the patterns of bias in technical change in the north and the south the evidence is not consistent with an absolute technical change bias towards temperate agriculture in the north rather the rate of technical change in temperate agriculture is now comparable to that experienced in manufactures so that engel curve effects now assert the major downward pressure on the long run terms of trade between temperate agriculture commodities and manufactures overriding the effects of diminishing returns to natural resources as northern population expands the empirical evidence onbiased technical change in the south is much more sketchy and the evidence on various components of north south terms of trade is more varied

a stagnationist model of economic growth in an economy subject to persistent excess capacity demand related factors will play a key role in determining patterns of secular change this thesis has a long history in econ omics sometimes in the underworld and occasionally at the height of fashion as recounted by rowthorn 1982 recent manifestations in the first world are the theories of monopoly capitalism of baran and sweezy 1966 and steindl 1952 who in turn follow kalecki 1971 hobson 1902 luxemburg 1951 and the marx of realisation crises and reproduction schemes in volume ii of capital other radicals such as boddy and crotty 1975 add a profit squeeze explanation of the cycle which underlays the dynamics of the growth model specified here in developing countries difficulties in both realisation and sectoral proportions are emphasised as obstacles to growth witness lustig s 1980 review of latin american structuralist theory and dutt s 1984 model which formalises an ongoing controversy in india about how income redistribution might affect prospects for industrialisation all these authors are stagnationist in assuming that both the growth rate and the level of capacity utilisation can be different under different conditions of income distribution and or macroeconomic policy their preferred policies will presumably lead to greater equality increase utilisation or step up growth they typically ask two analytical ques tions how does output respond in the short run to shifts in the income distribution how do output adjustments feed back into distributional dynamics especially under conditions when price and wage inflation rates may be influenced by employment levels productivity changes and conflicting income claims in what follows we set out a simple model to address these questions and explore the implications for macroeconomic policy of the answers that arise since the approach is not familiar to economists with a standard training a verbal description of the growth model is given first those who wish to jump directly into a formal presentation can proceed to section 1 output x is assumed to meet demand in an instantaneous short run we measure activity as the ratio of firms net cash inflow to the value of capital stock i e the rate of profit r during the short run the price level p is fixed by a mark up rule p 1 x wb where r is the mark up rate w the money wage and b the labor output ratio with this rule the share of profits or mark up income in the value of output is r l t let u stand for the output capital ratio or capacity utilization xik by simple identity

capital formation and unemployment this paper criticizes the current enthusiasm for labour market policies as the main route to employment creation in oecd countries such policies are normally seen as a means of encouraging more employment on existing capital stock this approach is one sided and downplays the equally important task of increasing productive capacity with more investment in productive capacity conventional labour market policies for increasing employment would be more effective and some might be unnecessary the paper analyses the role of capital stock within the framework of a simple nairu model based on previous work by the author it also presents some empirical evidence copyright 1995 by oxford university press

democracy stability and dichotomies an early debate in the empirical study of political democracy concerned the measurement of democracy initial work employed dichotomous indicators and incorporated stability into political democracy measures evidence accumulated showing that this approach could adversely affect analyses particularly in the study of income inequality despite this some recent studies have renewed the flawed practices we draw upon recent work to highlight the confusion that can result when democracy and stability are confounded and the problems with dichotomous indicators we propose that stability is analytically distinct from political democracy and should be treated as such empirically and we suggest ways to estimate incremental effects of political democracy we further argue that political democracy is continuous and that measures of it should reflect this it is important that the measurement history of this construct not repeat itself

inflation unemployment and distributional conflict in argentina 1984 90 the cycle of various economic stabilisation efforts in argentina during the 1980s has often been characterised as reflecting either policy confusion on the part of officials or their unwillingness to depart from an obsolete model of economic development hence according to some the alternation between orthodox and heterodox policy approaches has revealed an absence of either economic policy wisdom or political conviction less attention has been paid to the underlying real class based conflict for income that has manifested itself in terms of high rates of inflation and at times hyperinflation interpreting the issue from this perspective allows us to appreciate the essential continuity of the process of neo liberal reform of the argentine political economy that commenced with the post peronist military coup in 1976 and has more recently culminated with the rise of the nominally peronist regime of carlos menem

from education to democracy the conventional wisdom views high levels of education as a prerequisite for democracy this paper shows that existing evidence for this view is based on crosssectional correlations which disappear once we look at within country variation in other words there is no evidence that countries that increase their education are more likely to become democratic

bargaining power effective demand and technical progress a kaleckian model of growth following the kaleckian tradition this paper presents a demand led growth model in which the distribution of income is fully endogenised this is done by introducing claims on income by workers and firms the bargaining power of these two groups affects through distribution the patterns of accumulation and inflation in turn the bargaining power of workers is affected by the rate of change of employment the paper discusses the model s static and dynamic implications including the effects of exogenous and induced technical progress the model confirms all the typical kaleckian results including the fact that increases in real wages may lead to accelerating accumulation as well as inflation it also produces a new result it is possible that an increase in the rate of change of labour productivity may not lead to an increase in the rate of change of employment

spatial interdependence in us outward fdi into africa latin america and the caribbean the existing literature on spatial interdependence in fdi flows has primarily focused on developed economies as hosts with these hosts economically tied together via good infrastructure and historically strong significant trade flows in contrast we explicitly test for the presence of spatial interdependence in developing hosts africa latin american and the caribbean where such ties are not as strong for us outbound fdi between 1995 and 2007 our empirical results confirm third country effects do matter even when controlling for spatial and time period fixed effects based on the signs of the market potential and spatial lag coefficients we find us fdi strategies into these regions as consistent with complex vertical specialisation

risky business political instability and greenfield foreign direct investment in the arab world which foreign direct investments are most affected by political instability analysis of quarterly greenfield investment flows into countries in the middle east and north africa during the period from 2003 to 2012 shows that adverse political shocks are associated with significantly reduced investment inflows in the non resource tradable sectors by contrast investments in natural resource sectors and non tradable activities appear insensitive to such shocks political instability is thus associated with increased reliance on non tradables and aggravated resource dependence

comparative evaluation of post keynesian interest rate rules income distribution and firms debts for macroeconomic performance this article investigates the macroeconomic effects of firms debts and income distribution on economic growth and inflation under three different post keynesian interest rate rules the kansas city rule the smithin rule and the pasinetti rule by setting up a dynamic post keynesian model after reviewing debates on the post keynesian interest rate policies this article evaluates the relative merits of the three rules in their relationship with economic growth regimes and inflation dynamics accordingly this article explicitly shows that i a policy rule works effectively under some economic growth and inflation patterns but not necessarily under other patterns ii a policy rule contributing to high economic growth may not always be compatible with stabilisation of economic growth and iii the macroeconomic effects of debt and income distribution on economic growth and inflation are closely related to the choice of interest rate rule

theories of monopoly capitalism abstract this article presents a survey of theories of monopoly capitalism the defining characteristic of monopoly capitalism is that developed capitalist economies are seen as essentially dominated by firms which operate in oligopolistic industries it discusses in chronological order the contributions of hilferding lenin kalecki steindl baran and sweezy and cowling to the monopoly capitalism approach by drawing out some common features of the authors discussed we arrive at an implicit view of the nature of theories of monopoly capitalism the macroeconomic aspects of monopoly capitalism are discussed with emphasis on the implications for the level of economic activity a further section discusses the international aspects of the monopoly capital approach the final section of the paper reviews criticisms of the theories of monopoly capitalism with concentration on those advanced from a marxist perspective

dodging bullets the heterogeneous effect of political violence on greenfield fdi the relationship between political violence and greenfield foreign direct investment is contingent on the type of violence characteristics of the investment receiving sector and extent to which the investing firm is geographically diversified this paper presents an analysis with a dynamic fixed effects model for a panel of 90 developing countries from 2003 to 2012 the analysis shows that nationwide political conflict is negatively associated with total and non resource related greenfield foreign direct investment but not with resource related greenfield foreign direct investment the insensitivity to political conflict of multinational firms in the resource sector is associated with the high profitability of natural resource extraction and the companies geographic constraints on location choice during the period of estimation in the non resource sector the less geographically diversified firms are most sensitive to the risk of conflict

foreign direct investment inflows and the industrialization of african countries summary this paper examines the relationship between inward foreign direct investment fdi and the industrialization process in africa it uses panel data from 49 countries over the period of 1980 2009 the results indicate that fdi did not have a significant impact on the industrialization of these countries while other variables such as the size of the market the financial sector and international trade were important this study concludes that the role of fdi in the transformation agenda which is currently being discussed in africa should be carefully analyzed to maximize the impact of these capital inflows

the un predictability of primaries with many candidates simulation evidence it is common to describe the dynamic processes that generateoutcomes in u s primaries as unstable or unpredictable in fact the way we choose candidates may amount to alottery this paper uses a simulation approach assuming10 000 voters who vote according to a naive deterministicproximity rule but who choose party affiliationprobabilistically the voters of each party then must choose between twosets of ten randomly chosen candidates in closed primaries finally the winners of the two nominations compete in thegeneral election in which independent voters also participate the key result of the simulations reported here isthe complete unpredictability of the outcomes of a sequence ofprimaries the winner of the primary or the party s nominee varied as much as two standard deviations from the medianpartisan voter the reason is that the median or any othermeasure of the center of the distribution of voters isof little value in predicting the outcome of multicandidateelections these results suggest that who runs may havemore to do with who wins than any other consideration if more than two parties or candidates are expected then thevote maximizing position is not close to your opponents butwell away from them tullock 1967 55

macroeconomics without the lm curve an alternative view this paper develops a fully articulated post keynesian alternative to the new consensus macroeconomic model based on explicitly post keynesian hypotheses about the inflation process the income generating process and the appropriate conduct of monetary policy the paper demonstrates how the equilibrium configuration of this model can be manipulated by non monetary policy interventions including fiscal policy and incomes policy one perhaps surprising result that emerges from the analysis is that in the context of the proper policy environment inflation targeting can have a positive impact on real economic performance

democracy foreign direct investment and natural resources abstract empirical studies that examine the impact of democracy on foreign direct investment fdi assume that the relationship between democracy and fdi is the same for resource exporting and non resource exporting countries this paper examines whether natural resources in host countries alter this relationship we estimate a linear dynamic panel data model using data from 112 developing countries over the period 1982 2007 we find that democracy promotes fdi if and only if the value of the share of minerals and oil in total exports is less than some critical value we identify 90 countries where an expansion of democracy may enhance fdi and 22 countries where an increase in democratization may reduce fdi we also find that the effect of democracy on fdi depends on the size and not the type of natural resources

the tragedy of uk fiscal policy in the aftermath of the financial crisis the evolving response of the uk fiscal authorities to the financial crisis and recession are briefly outlined with a focus on the fiscal austerity programme introduced by the incoming coalition government during 2010 the reasoning for that programme is critically examined and largely dismissed it is argued that the drive for major cuts in public expenditure comes from seeking to achieve a balanced structural budget and reductions in estimated potential output the significance of the latter are discussed the paper is completed by a brief consideration of alternatives

do civil and political repression really boost foreign direct investments multinational enterprises are often accused of having a preference for investing in countries in which the working populations civil and political rights are largely disregarded this article presents an empirical investigation of the popular political repression boosts fdi hypothesis and arrives at the conclusion that the hypothesis is not supported on the contrary multinational enterprises rather appear to be attracted by countries in which civil and political freedom is respected

financing growth through foreign aid and private foreign loans nonlinearities and complementarities abstract are the growth consequences of foreign aid and foreign private loans different for the recipient nations in this study we analyze in a unified way how these two instruments affect economic growth of 131 developing nations over the period 1996 2010 we find that there are diminishing returns to foreign aid while there are increasing returns to foreign loans using these estimated non linearities we find a critical level of international financial transfer where the marginal effect of foreign aid is larger than that of loans if and only if the transfer loans or foreign aid is below this critical level in addition we analyze the interaction between these two types of transfers and find evidence of complementarity disaggregation of aid into grants and concessional loans suggests that it is in fact the former that exhibits concave relationship with growth

some instability puzzles in kaleckian models of growth and distribution a critical survey we tackle the issue of the possible instability of the kaleckian distribution and growth model distinguishing between keynesian and harrodian instability we review various mechanisms that have been proposed by critics of the kaleckian model to tame harrodian instability while bringing back the rate of utilisation to its normal rate we find that the mechanisms that have been suggested are far from convincing therefore we conclude that it may be premature for the critics of the kaleckian model to dismiss the endogeneity of the rate of capacity utilisation in long run growth equilibrium copyright the author 2010 published by oxford university press on behalf of the cambridge political economy society all rights reserved oxford university press

income and democracy existing studies establish a strong cross country correlation between income and democracy but do not control for factors that simultaneously affect both variables we show that controlling for such factors by including country fixed effects removes the statistical association between income per capita and vari ous measures of democracy we present instrumental variables estimates that also show no causal effect of income on democracy the cross country corre lation between income and democracy reflects a positive correlation between changes in income and democracy over the past 500 years this pattern is con sistent with the idea that societies embarked on divergent political economic development paths at certain critical junctures jel d7 e 1

capital accumulation labour market institutions and unemployment in the medium run according to the mainstream view labour market institutions lmis are the key determinants of unemployment in the medium run the actual empirical explanatory power of measures for labour market institutions however has recently been called into question the keynesian view holds periods of high real interest rates and insufficient capital accumulation responsible for unemployment empirical work in this tradition has paid little attention to the role of lmis this paper contributes to the debate by highlighting the role of autonomous changes in capital accumulation as a macroeconomic shock in the empirical analysis medium term unemployment is explained by capital accumulation lmis and a number of macroeconomic shocks in a panel analysis covering 20 oecd countries the economic effects of changes in lmi variations in capital accumulation and other macro shocks are compared capital accumulation and the real interest rate are found to have statistically significant effects that are robust to the inclusion of control variables and show larger effects than lmi