theoretical and empirical advantages of truncated count data estimators for analysis of deer hunting in california truncated poisson and truncated negative binomial count data models as well as standard count data models ols nonlinear normal and truncated nonlinear normal mle were used to estimate demand for deer hunting in california the truncated count data estimators and their properties are reviewed a large sample n 2223 allowed random segmenting of the data into specification estimation and out of sample prediction portions statistics of interest are therefore unbiased by the specification search and the prediction results allow comparison of the statistical models robustness the new estimators are found to be more appropriate for estimating and predicting demand and social benefits than the alternative estimators based on a variety of criteria

option value empirical evidence from a case study of recreation and water quality a procedure for measuring option value and other preservation values of water quality is developed and applied to a case study area in the south platte river basin colorado benefits from water based recreation activities are the focus of the study the results provide an empirical test and confirmation of weisbrod s proposal that option value and other preservation values represent important social benefits and should be added to the aggregate consumer surplus of recreation activities to determine the total benefit of environmental amenities to society in the absence of such an estimate insufficient resources would be allocated by society to preservation of unique environments such as pristine mountain streams where mineral and energy development may irreversibly degrade water quality

generalized travel cost model and water quality benefits a reconsideration with federal agencies required to conduct benefit cost analyses for each new major regulation analyses of water quality changes are likely to be an increasingly important part of the policymaking process a revised version of the travel cost demand model and illustrations show the importance of these revisions for the model s estimates although the magnitude of the difference in benefit estimates between the original and new versions of the model varies with the specific recreation site selected the findings indicate that the original model generally implied estimated benefits from three to over 30 times as large as the revised model this implies that judgment can play an important role in the definition and use of economic models as well as the need for better information on households recreation decisions and more complete description of recreation site characteristics 15 references 4 tables

lorenz domination and global tax progressivity a reply the concept of tax progressivity at a point local progressivity is well defined and accepted but the concept of overall progressivity of a tax schedule global progressivity is not as precise and clearly defined even though it is an important concept and is widely used in evaluating the redistributive impact of tax policies public finance economists have been comparing tax schedules and making statements on one as more progressive than another without being very precise about the basis of comparison in my earlier paper in the may 1985 issue of this journal liu 1985 i attempted to unify the two concepts of local and global progressivity two requirements are imposed when a tax schedule is characterized as globally progressive one of which is structural and the other redistributive and hence normative in nature drawing on the earlier work of jakobsson 1976 musgrave thin s measure was shown to satisfy both requirements two recently proposed measures by suits 1977 and kakwani 1976 were shown to be unappealing from both a positive and a normative viewpoint in their comment on my paper formby smith and sykes pointed out an error in a proposition by jakobsson thereby showing that the link between the pointwise concept of residual progression and the global concept of lorenz domination is weaker than indicated by jakobsson and me this reduces the appeal of musgrave thin s global measure as structurally consistent with pointwise progressivity everywhere in the tax schedule the implication is that if we insist on this structural consistency the basis for comparison of tax schedules will be too restrictive since comparison will require one post tax income distribution to lorenz dominate another for all instead of for any pre tax income distributions hence despite my earlier effort the device of a global measure of tax progressivity that is consistent with pointwise

welfare dominance an application to commodity taxation in this paper the authors propose a method to identify commodity tax changes that will be favored by all individuals who can agree on certain weak assumptions with regard to the social welfare function the method is based on an extension of the criterion of second degree stochastic dominance and is illustrated using data from israel copyright 1991 by american economic association

a decomposition analysis of the trend in uk income inequality post war britain has experienced a number of dramatic demographic and social changes that have undoubtedly influenced the distribution of income there has been a rise in the number of pensioners whose incomes are relatively low a considerable increase in the number of young and old households living on their own and a remarkable expansion in the proportion of working wives the potential importance of these structural changes suggests that their impact on the income distribution needs to be examined systematically before any attempt can be made to interpret the observed trend in overall income inequality adequately the method usually adopted for this purpose attempts to create a comparable time series of distributions based on the structural characteristics pertaining in one particular year for example if we wished to investigate the effect of shifts in the age structure of the population this approach would disaggregate the distribution in one year tl and estimate what the distribution would have been like if the age structure had been the same as that observed in some other year to on the assumption that other distributional characteristics such as ageincome differentials and inequality within age groups remain invariant to this demographic change the comparison between the actual distribution at t1 and the constructed distribution at t1 with to s age structure is taken to indicate the impact of changes in the age structure over the period concerned this comparison can be presented in terms of quantile shares summary measures of inequality or the entire lorenz curves this approach known as shift share analysis or standardising the inequality series see semple i975 love and wolfson i976 dinwiddy and reed i977 royal commission i977 rowley and henderson i978 macleod and horner i980 is perfectly adequate for simple and straightforward structural changes when several changes are occurring simultaneously however it becomes difficult to identify the contribution of the individual factors and to assess their relative importance to the overall trend in inequality furthermore the combined impact of several structural influences will not in general sum up to the inequality change requiring explanation the purpose of this paper is to propose an alternative method of analysing

the stabilizing role of government size abstract this paper presents an analysis of how alternative models of the business cycle can replicate the stylized fact that large governments are associated with less volatile economies our analysis shows that adding nominal rigidities and costs of capital adjustment to an otherwise standard rbc model can generate a negative correlation between government size and the volatility of output however in the model we find that the stabilizing effect is only due to a composition effect and it is not present when we look at the volatility of private output given that empirically we also observe a negative correlation between government size and the volatility of consumption we modify the model by introducing rule of thumb consumers in this modified version of our initial model we observe that consumption volatility is also reduced when government size increases in similar way to the observed pattern in oecd economies over the last 45 years

multivariate count data regression models with individual panel data from an on site sample the purpose of this paper is to consider the problem of controlling for on site sampling in the context of a system or panel of demand equations specifically in the context of recreation demand we are concerned with the situation in which survey respondents are asked to provide information not only about the actual trips to a specific site observed behavior but also their anticipated trips either under current conditions or given price and quality changes a multivariate poisson log normal mpln model and a seemingly unrelated negative binomial sunb model are used to jointly model the observed and contingent behavior data and to correct for on site sampling

valuing option existence and bequest demands for wilderness to assess the relative importance of current costs and future benefits of nuclear waste storage we develop a simple model of bequest value the basic model of nonparternalistic altruism is extended to account for the uncertain nature of the externality

fiscal policy and business cycle characteristics in a heterogeneous agent macro model abstract this paper explores the macroeconomic implications of changing fiscal policy in a heterogeneous interacting agent hia model the key contributions to the existing hia complex adaptive trivial system cats literature include the addition of a progressive income tax structure an expanded role for redistribution and a stylized reactive government sector in certain specifications deficit financed tax cuts are shown to effectively shorten recessions while deficit financed spending stimulus is able to lengthen recoveries alternative specifications provide ambiguous support for generalizing the effectiveness of these policy treatments robustness checks support the general findings that increased redistribution towards the unemployed results in higher unemployment rates greater inequality and shorter contractions

the impossibility of a progressive tax structure abstract when households are identical in all respects other than income a non decreasing average tax rate is both necessary and sufficient for post tax incomes to be always at least as equal as pre tax incomes this paper investigates whether this well known result can be extended to households with different needs a tax structure which never increases inequality in the lorenz sense is shown to be unable to discriminate between household types if in addition the tax structure never reduces the relative income of the poorest member of the neediest group of households then the same proportional tax must be applied to all households and redistribution is impossible either within or between groups of households with differing needs a similar conclusion is reached using conventional equivalence scale arguments and also applies when the parameters of the tax schedules are determined endogenously we discuss the significance of this impossibility result and its implications for tax design

on the effectiveness and limits of fiscal stabilizers the smoothing impact of fiscal stabilizers proxied by government expenditures on business cycle volatility is studied for a panel of european union eu countries in the period 1970 1999 special emphasis is put on the investigation of possible nonlinearities in the relationship between gross domestic product gdp growth volatility and fiscal stabilizers the results show that the business cycle volatility smoothing effect of fiscal stabilizers may revert at high levels the results hold when using government revenues as a proxy for fiscal stabilizers

an experimental approach to valuing new differentiated products abstract an experimental store was created to evaluate initial demand for locally produced and guaranteed tender steak products as a more realistic alternative to contingent valuation cv and dichotomous choice experimental methods strengths of the approach are incentive compatibility a realistic consumption set and a familiar choice environment consumers selected among usda choice premium quality lean guaranteed tender and locally produced strip steaks a double hurdle count data model indicated initial willingness to pay wtp for locally produced steak comparable to prior cv results but demand was highly elastic demand for premium quality steak crowded out demand for the guaranteed tender product contrasting with prior dichotomous choice experimental results

government size and macroeconomic stability abstract we analyze the effects of government size on output variability in the context of a rbc model in which government size is parameterized by the income tax rate and the share of government purchases in output the model implies that i income taxes are destabilizing and ii for most specifications considered government purchases are stabilizing we compare those predictions with the results of simple cross country regressions using data for 22 oecd countries the estimated relationship between empirical indicators of government size and measures of gdp variability appears far stronger than the model predicts and often has the opposite sign

testing benefits transfer of forest recreation values over a twenty year time horizon we conduct a functional benefit transfer over 20 years of total willingness to pay based on carborne forest recreation in 52 forests using a mixed logit specification of a random utility model and geographic information systems to allow heterogeneous preferences across the population and for heterogeneity over space results show that preferences for some forest attributes such as species diversity and age as well as transport mode have changed significantly over the period updating the transfer model with present total demand for recreation improves the error margins by an average of 282 average errors of the best transfer model remain 25

the sign and size of option value we adapt the theoretical state preference model to value nonmarket public goods under individual uncertainty about use illustrating with an assessment of willingness to pay to prevent acid rain lake damage in the northeast united states individual

modeling recreation demand in a poisson system of equations an analysis of the impact of international exchange rates we extend count data travel cost modeling by developing a utility theoretic system of semilogarithmic recreation demand equations the restrictions required to make the system utility theoretic are applied during estimation the model is applied to individual wilderness recreation trips in a system of four canadian wilderness parks the resulting demand system is used to examine the impacts of changing u s canadian currency exchange rates on participation and welfare of u s recreationists

single crossing conditions in comparisons of tax progressivity statements to the effect that one tax is more progressive than another are frequently made but seldom explained starting from a criterion of lorenz domination this paper shows how an intuitively appealing single crossing condition on appropriately normalized tax schedules may be used in progressivity comparisons this condition is closely related to and illuminates the necessary and sufficient condition derived by jakobsson 1976 for the distributional implications of alternative taxes to be inferred from their schedules alone

the new political economy of taxation in advanced capitalist democracies earlier versions of this paper were presented at the 1999 annual meeting of the american political science association september 1 5 atlanta ga and the 2000 annual meeting of the midwest political science association april 27 30 chicago il the authors thank steffen ganghof philip genschel mark hallerberg alex hicks william keech dennis quinn and the anonymous reviewers and editor of this journal for many helpful comments and dennis quinn for generously sharing data duane swank thanks the german marshal fund of the united states and marquette university for support of work incorporated in this paper data utilized in this paper are available from duane swank marquette edu

sample selection bias in the estimation of recreation demand functions an application to sportfishing estimating the value of public actions through behavior implied by the demand for recreation has proved valuable in many settings early applications were based on grouped data however the sharpening of tools of welfare analysis has led economists to exploit individual rather than grouped data the appropriate use of individual observations in estimating recreational demand models is not obvious and depends on the economic theory and its behavioral implications and the statistical characteristics of models the difficulty in exploiting individual observations in estimating recreational demand functions is that a large portion of a randomly sampled population in a given geographical region is likely to be non participants in the recreational activity of interest that is they are observed to demand zero trips the qualitative implications of such samples seem to be recognized bockstael hanemann and strand 1986 mullahy 1987 but there are few smith 1988 shaw 1988 published comparisons of the implications of alternative models

a structural equations approach to modeling consumptive recreation demand abstract in this analysis we develop a two equation structural model of a count travel cost model of recreational angling demand and angling success by modeling the two equations jointly we avoid the difficulties associated with the usual approach which estimates the demand for recreational fishing sites assuming the existence of an exogenous measure of fishing quality our analysis explicitly develops the joint log likelihood function that combines the two processes we estimate our model using full information maximum likelihood methods

majority voting with single crossing preferences we clarify and extend a number of sufficient conditions for the existence of a majority voting equilibrium on one dimensional choice domains these conditions variously stated in the previous literature all impose order restrictions on voter preferences for instance monotone marginal rates of substitution which we show to imply or be equivalent to a general ordinal version of the single crossing condition this simple property is economically intuitive and easily checked in applications this ease of application is demonstrated through an examination of voting models of redistributive income taxation and trade union bargaining behaviour

automatic stabilizers and economic crisis us vs europe this paper analyzes the effectiveness of the tax and transfer systems in the eu and the us to provide income insurance through automatic stabilization in the recent economic crisis we find that automatic stabilizers absorb 38 of a proportional income shock in the eu compared to 32 in the us in the case of an unemployment shock 47 of the shock is absorbed in the eu compared to 34 in the us this cushioning of disposable income leads to a demand stabilization of up to 30 in the eu and up to 20 in the us there is large heterogeneity within the eu automatic stabilizers in eastern and southern europe are much lower than in central and northern european countries we also investigate whether countries with weak automatic stabilizers have enacted larger fiscal stimulus programs

estimates of the option values for water quality improvements abstract this paper presents estimates of the option values associated with increased oppurtunities for outdoor recreation resulting from improved water quality the estimates are based on a 1981 survey of 301 households in the pennsylvania monongahela river basin

income redistribution and local tax progressivity a reconsideration this paper investigates and clarifies the relation between global tax progressivity as measured by musgrave and thin s effective progression and pointwise local progression as measured by the elasticity of after tax income with respect to pre tax income residual progression liu s 1985 vigorous defence of the global measure of effective progression is shown to rest upon an erroneous proposition of jakobsson 1976 a counter example is presented demonstrating that the link between residual progression and lorenz domination is much weaker than the work of liu and jakobsson suggests redistribution des revenus et mesure ponctuelle de la progressivite de l imp6t un re examen ce memoire examine et clarifie les rapports entre la progressivite globale de l impot telle que mesuree par l indice de progression effective de musgrave et thin et la progressivite ponctuelle de l imp6t telle que mesuree par l elasticite du revenu apres impot par rapport au revenu avant impot la progression residuelle on montre que la vigoureuse defense de liu 1985 de la mesure globale de progression effective est batie sur une proposition erronnee de jakobsson 1976 un exemple montre bien que le lien entre la progression residuelle et la domination au sens de lorenz est bien plus faible que ne le suggerent les travaux de liu et jakobsson

benefit incidence of public recreation areas have the winners taken almost all this study presents a framework for investigating the benefit incidence of provision of public recreation opportunities the proportion of individuals who use outdoor recreation services increases with income and frequency of use differs by the users gender and life situation e g depending on whether they are students or older citizens the decomposition of distributive incidence shows that a bias in favor of high income groups may be accentuated when the perceived value of these services is taken into account in monetary terms we compare alternative strategies in terms of equity for improving recreation opportunities e g reduced distance to or increased acreage of recreation sites our results indicate that although these strategies improve the welfare distribution among the income groups a considerable proportion of benefits nevertheless accrue to high income groups

the welfare impacts of unanticipated trip limitations in travel cost models this paper uses an analysis of the gulf of mexico s recreational red snapper fishery to demonstrate the importance of theoretical behavioral model choice although travel cost models are frequently used in assessing the impact of policy changes on consumer s surplus this study shows that the standard use of consumer s surplus per trip can be inappropriate when the policy change leads to a partial closure of the resource depending on the theoretical behavior model underlying the analysis

inequality in five countries in the 1980s the role of demographic shifts markets and government policies this paper uses luxembourg income study lis data to examine levels of and trends in income inequality in canada the netherlands sweden the united kingdom and the united states inequality increased in sweden the united kingdom and the united states but did not increase in canada and the netherlands increased inequality of household heads earnings and increased shares of spouses earnings in family income account for much of the observed increases in income inequality the public sector can in general be assigned a moderating effect on these changes demographic shifts are not assigned any major role in inequality changes excerpt

fishes ponds and productivity student advisor matching and early career publishing success for economics phds i introduction research productivity is an important concern for members of the academe publishing success is important for individual departments because more productive faculty increases the department s research profile which in turn increases the department s professional reputation as evidence thursby 2000 and ehrenberg and hurst 1998 find that a department s reputation in the national research council nrc ratings increases with published research while smyth 1999 finds that pages published in the top 5 journals have a greater impact than pages published in other journals publishing success is important for individual faculty members because peer reviewed publications have long been shown to be economic currency for academic economists bratsberg ragan and warren 2003 moore newman and turnbull 1998 sauer 1988 among others research promise is important for graduate students because students with the greatest promise for productive careers are likely to receive the best initial job placements buchmueller dominitz and hansen 1999 krueger and wu 2000 long 1978 indeed according to a survey of hiring departments carson and navarro 1988 every single top 20 domestic economics program considered the quality of one s research agenda to be of moderate to great importance in the hiring decision an important question then is how to identify which factors are associated with the likelihood of having a more productive research career to date empirical studies have focused on the program from which the student graduated recent examples include collins cox and stango 2000 davis huston and patterson 2001 stock and alston 2000 this focus implicitly assumes that because only the very best students become enrolled in elite programs graduates of highly ranked programs should hold the greatest promise for publishing success 1 in support coupe 2001 and buchmueller dominitz and hansen 1999 find that students graduating from top programs are more likely to publish in core economics journals while hogan 1981 finds that students graduating from programs with more active faculty publish more journal articles before placing total faith in these results however members of the academe should ask whether such findings hold across all points in the graduate distribution or whether they are only accurate predictors on average previously published data clearly suggest the latter for instance buchmueller dominitz and hansen 1999 find that 30 of tier 1 graduates do not publish any academic articles within the first 9 yr after phd receipt while 50 do not publish any top 50 articles as defined by liebowitz and palmer 1984 in other words there is a large amount of unexplained variability in the future success of a program s graduates krueger and wu 2000 93 consequently it is likely that significant overlap exists between the performance of top program graduates and lesser program graduates with significant portions of the latter outperforming significant portions of the former with this in mind the question becomes is there a readily observable factor that is a less noisy predictor of a student s likelihood for publishing success we argue that there is during a student s postgraduate education one of the most significant influences is his or her dissertation advisor we posit that for timing reasons advisors will possess additional insight into a student s true research potential that was not available to the admission committee when deciding whether to admit the student into the program consequently we expect a student s dissertation advisor to be a more informed predictor of his or her early career productivity than the program from which he or she receives the phd 2 in other words we believe that considering the identity of a student s dissertation advisor in addition to the quality of the program from which the student receives the phd should help reduce the uncertainty inherent in predicting the student s position within the early career productivity distribution

valuing time in travel cost demand analysis an empirical investigation the opportunity cost of time is usu ally a significant part of the price variable in the travel cost demand model thus its accurate mea surement is important to the estimation of demand and benefit valuation for nonmarket resources this paper empirically tests models which assume that income is the basis for opportunity time cost with an alternative pooled model based on a disequi librium labor market for some recreationists ac ceptance of the hypothesis that disequilibrium mod els may be necessary for some individuals implies increased survey information requirements so that the appropriate model can be applied to each indi vidual jel q21

measuring angling quality in count data models of recreational fishing a non nested test of three approaches this paper develops a methodology for investigating different specifications of angling quality in recreational demand models the methodology is used to compare three alternative specifications of the relationship between angling demand and site quality the site quality alternatives include chemical concentrations biological stress indices based on the chemicals and catch per unit effort the three alternatives are differentiated using a likelihood ratio non nested testing procedure

a bivariate count data model for household tourism demand households choice of the number of leisure trips and the total number of overnight stays is empirically studied using swedish tourism data a bivariate hurdle approach separating the participation to travel and stay the night or not from the quantity the number of trips and nights decision is employed the quantity decision is modelled with a bivariate mixed poisson lognormal model allowing for both positive as well as negative correlation between count variables the observed endogenous variables are drawn from a truncated density and estimation is pursued by simulated maximum likelihood the estimation results indicate a negative correlation between the number of trips and nights in most cases own price effects are as expected negative while estimates of cross price effects vary between samples copyright 2005 john wiley sons ltd

estimating social welfare using count data models an application to long run recreation demand under conditions of endogenous stratification and truncation this paper develops a negative binomial model of recreation demand that corrects for both truncation and endogenous stratification this approach recovers the demand associated with the general population not just the users of the site this model demonstrates the importance of the joint nature of the population s latent demand for trips and the consumer surplus associated with those trips the empirical results provide an estimate of the willingness to pay by washington state residents for hiking opportunities in the cascade mountain range these results are used to forecast total trips and willingness to pay over the next forty years copyright 1995 by mit press

effective tax rates in macroeconomics cross country estimates of tax rates on factor incomes and consumption abstract this paper proposes a method for computing tax rates using national accounts and revenue statistics using this method we construct time series of tax rates for large industrial countries the method identifies the revenue raised by different taxes at the general government level and defines aggregate measures of the corresponding tax bases this method yields estimates of effective tax rates on factor incomes and consumption consistent with the tax distortions faced by a representative agent in a general equilibrium framework these tax rates compare favorably with existing estimates of marginal tax rates and highlight important international differences in tax policy

willingness to pay for snowmobile recreation travel cost method models with and without post season resurvey of trip count annual willingness to pay wtp for snowmobile recreation in idaho is estimated using the travel cost method tcm on site snow conditions are important and erratic thus we collect two measures o

inequality reducing properties of composite taxation abstract on the one hand we know that the more progressive a tax schedule the more equally distributed the after tax incomes u jakobsson j public econ 5 1976 161 168 on the other hand most tax systems involve a complex procedure where individual incomes are successively subjected to different rounds of taxation we study in the paper the inequality reducing properties of the composition of different taxation schemes and we identify necessary and sufficient conditions for after tax inequality to decrease when the degree of progressivity of one element or more of the tax system is increased for the sake of generality we assimilate the set of income distributions with the space of probability measures over an interval of the real line and any function that associates after tax incomes to before tax incomes is viewed as a taxation scheme this general approach proves to be particularly powerful when investigating the restrictions the egalitarian principle imposes on the set of admissible taxation schemes journal of economic literature classification numbers d31 d63 h24

a necessary and sufficient condition for greater conditional progressivity conditional progressivity is defined in terms of a weakly lorenz dominating posttax income distribution conditional upon a given pretax income distribution this paper derives a condition that is both necessary and sufficient for one income tax to be conditionally more progressive than another it involves the odd number crossing of normalized posttax income functions together with certain integral or summation conditions single crossing as a special case is sufficient if the posttax income functions are at least piecewise differentiable an average rate progressivity condition is sufficient for the residual progressivity condition which in turn is sufficient for single crossing

flat rate taxes and inequality measurement abstract tax flattening exercises which include an increase in personal allowances have been pervasive over the past two decades such changes which typically benefit both the poor and the rich at the expense of the middle class have complex redistributive effects which are not obviously equalizing or disequalizing we develop a systematic approach to comparing the relative inequality of flat rate tax schemes to conventional graduated rate taxes we provide an illustrative example using 1993 u s taxfiler data

inference tests for gini based tax progressivity indexes distribution free statistical inference procedures for changes in lorenz and gini based indexes of tax progressivity are developed and applied related but distinct tests for the reynolds smolensky index of residual progression and the kakwani index of liability progression are provided the inference procedures are illustrated by applying them to luxembourg income study microdata for sweden the united kingdom and the united states before and after periods of tax reform in each country a finding of significant change depends on the choice among progressivity indexes no single index exhibits a consistent pattern of significant change in all countries across time

countercyclical taxes in a monopolistically competitive environment in the context of a neoclassical growth model with monopolistic competition this paper studies the stabilizing effects of countercyclical tax policy when the income tax rate has an additional role of financing government budget deficits consistent with the conventional wisdom countercyclical taxes generally reduce aggregate volatility unless the fiscal response to debt accumulation is weak the presence of monopoly power enhances these effects even when automatic stabilizers successfully stabilize business cycle fluctuations countercyclical taxes are welfare inferior due to reduced precautionary saving motives while if the fiscal response to debt is weak and countercyclical tax policy destabilizing the increased precautionary saving motive is not welfare enhancing as the asset accumulated is government debt rather than capital these results are generally robust nominal inertia may however dominate the precautionary saving mechanism

how unification and immigration affected the german income distribution abstract the german economy is not only affected by unification of germany but by a significant influx of immigrants from abroad and huge migration from east to west germany around the date of unification data from the german socio economic panel study gsoep allows one to disentangle those effects by decomposition of the theil i 0 index of inequality in addition the paper offers insights into the transition from a socalist economy into a market oriented one

an assessment of the empirical magnitude of option values for environment goods this paper provides an empirical assessment of the magnitude of option values relative to expected surplus using a model presented by larson and flacco 1992 option values and option prices are computed for both simulated data sets and actual estimates of recreation demands results indicate that option values engendered by price and income uncertainty are generally quite a small percent of expected surplus

automatic stabilizers fiscal rules and macroeconomic stability abstract this paper analyzes the effect of the fiscal structure upon the trade off between inflation and output stabilization induced by technological shocks in a dge model with nominal and real rigidities that also integrates a rich menu of fiscal variables as well as a target on the debt to output ratio the channels through which fiscal policy affects macroeconomic stability include supply side effects of distortionary taxes the procyclical behavior of public spending induced by fiscal rules and the conventional effect of automatic stabilizers operating through disposable permanent income the paper investigates these channels and concludes that contrary to what has been found in rbc models distortionary taxes tend to reduce output volatility relative to lump sum taxes when significant rigidities are present we also study the stabilization effect of alternative distortionary tax structures and find that these are only relevant if substantial rigidities are present

endogenously chosen travel costs and the travel cost model an application to mountain biking at moab utah the travel cost model is frequently used to estimate net willingness to pay for recreation at remote sites by using the visitor s travel costs as a proxy for the price of recreation however some concern has been raised over the validity of using the visitor s stated travel costs as a proxy for price this paper addresses some of these concerns by examining the possible over estimation of consumer surplus due to endogenously chosen travel costs this paper extends past theoretical work for the linear model by developing a correction for endogenously chosen travel costs in more commonly used nonlinear models such as the poisson or count data model also provided is the first empirical test of the presence of endogeneity and an estimate of the magnitude of the error from ignoring endogeneity in travel costs after applying this test and the correction to data that was gathered for mountain biking at moab utah the estimate of consumer surplus falls from us 153 to us 135 which is a 12 reduction

tax reform and progressivity the established theory of tax progressivity cannot handle basic tax reform questions such as whether an increase in personal allowances makes the tau system more progressive because the core results assume that tax liability is never zero this paper generalises the core theory to allow for zero tax payments and applies the new framework to the analysis of allowances income related deductions and tau credits log concavity of the tax schedule a property quite distinct from any existing notion of progressivity emerges as the critical determinant of whether the distribution of die tau burden becomes more progressive as allowances are increased

transition with insurance german unification reconsidered transformation of the economic system involves the risk of a transitory fall in living standards in german unification west germany promised to carry that risk for east germany paretian promise but also insisted on being paid an insurance fee that frequently neglected fee comprises nothing less than the bulk of east germany s endowment i e the state owned capital and land one share of the fee was arranged to go to the mostly west german previous owners another to the public sector the circumstances of privatizing the public sector s cut result in a third share going to the again mostly west german buyers and also help to explain the puzzle of wages and unemployment rising simultaneously some policy proposals that are now discussed amount to shifting the risk and or the fee back to the east germans although well motivated this would violate the original terms of the unification deal copyright 1992 by oxford university press

option prices for groundwater protection abstract this paper reports results from a contingent valuation study of households willingness to pay pay to prevent uncertain future nitrate contamination of a potable supply of groundwater the functional form of the corresponding logit model is derived from utility maximization theory probability of future demand change in the probability of future supply and an attitudinal score for interests in the well being of future generations are significant positive determinants of option prices several implications of these results for aquifer management policy are highlighted

adopt a hypothetical pup a count data approach to the valuation of wildlife the willingness to pay wtp for a coyote conservation program is estimated using a novel payment vehicle based on how many problem coyotes respondents would be willing to sponsor for a year this hypothetical scenario mimics an increasingly popular type of actual market data from a phone survey conducted in prince edward island are analyzed using count data models that consider different processes explaining zero responses and the level of positive responses this is particularly important in the case of coyotes often regarded as an economic bad estimates of wtp per coyote per year around 18 22 and annual wtp per contributor of about 46 57 are obtained

valuing water quality as a function of water quality measures employing a unique and rich data set of water quality attributes in conjunction with detailed household characteristics and trip information we develop a mixed logit model of recreational lake usage and undertake thorough model specification and fitting procedures to identify the best set of explanatory variables and their functional form for the estimated model our empirical analysis shows that individuals are responsive to the full set of water quality measures used by biologists to identify the impaired status of lakes thus changes in these quality measures are not simply a scientific exercise but they also translate into changes in the recreational usage patterns and well being of individual households willingness to pay wtp estimates are reported based on improvements in these physical measures

the significance of federal taxes as automatic stabilizers using the taxsim model for the period 1962 95 we consider the federal tax system s impact as an automatic stabilizer despite the many changes in the tax system there has been relatively little change in its role as an automatic stabilizer we estimate that individual federal taxes offset perhaps as much as 8 percent of initial shocks to gdp we also suggest that the progressive income tax may help to stabilize output via its effect on the supply of labor an additional effect that may even be of similar magnitude to the more traditional path of stabilization through aggregate demand

modeling hunting demand in the presence of a bag limit with tests of alternative specifications abstract bag limits complicate the measurement of consumer surplus from hunting because the point at which hunters cease taking trips is not necessarily the point at which they are unwilling to pay for additional hunting trips we develop and apply an econometric model which accounts for bag limits to data of deer hunting in california and we employ several alternative models that do not account for the bag limit we conduct non nested testing of the models and estimate welfare measures at existing conditions and after a quality improvement confidence intervals are provided for the welfare measurements

social spending and automatic stabilizers in the oecd the macroeconomic literature on automatic stabilization tends to focus on taxes and dismiss the relevance of government expenditure except for unemployment compensation our results go sharply contrary to this view we engage in an empirical analysis of 21 oecd countries from 1982 to 2003 and find that age and health related social expenditure as well as incapacity and sick benefits all react to the cycle in a stabilizing manner while possibly new in the macro literature this conforms to many results in studies in labour economics the policy implications are broad since much previous analysis of discretionary fiscal policy rests on official figures for automatic stabilization there are also major implications for efforts to incorporate automatic fiscal policy in simulation models julia darby and jacques melitz

valuing water level changes in reservoirs using two stated preference approaches an exploration of validity the combination of travel cost tcm and contingent behaviour cb methods is a relatively new research avenue in the recreational valuation community contrary to simple tcm applications tcm cb facilitates the ex ante valuation of marginal welfare effects resulting from environmental quality or quantity changes similar to the contingent valuation method cv even though tcm cb is highly policy relevant i e to inform changes in management regimes at recreational sites the validity of estimates has hardly received any attention and little is known about the performance of tcm cb compared to cv in this paper tcm cb and cv are explored with respect to several validity tests in a case study on the recreational effects of water level changes in a reservoir overall the findings reveal that tcm cb and cv perform equally well in terms of theoretical validity but that the marginal recreational value varies significantly between the two methods we also observe that both methods face similar internal difficulties with respect to the stability of values when the order of a set of valuation questions is changed

uniform progressivity residual progression and single crossing abstract the relationship between lower residual progression and single crossing conditions as necessary and sufficient conditions for one tax system to be conditionally more progressive or uniformly more progressive than another are clarified

how progressive is the u s federal tax system a historical and international perspective this paper provides estimates of federal tax rates by income groups in the united states since 1960 with special emphasis on very top income groups we include individual and corporate income taxes payroll taxes and estate and gift taxes the progressivity of the u s federal tax system at the top of the income distribution has declined dramatically since the 1960s this dramatic drop in progressivity is due primarily to a drop in corporate taxes and in estate and gift taxes combined with a sharp change in the composition of top incomes away from capital income and toward labor income the sharp drop in statutory top marginal individual income tax rates has contributed only moderately to the decline in tax progressivity international comparisons confirm that is it critical to take into account other taxes than the individual income tax to properly assess the extent of overall tax progressivity both for time trends and for cross country comparisons the pattern for the united kingdom is similar to the u s pattern france had less progressive taxes than the united states or the united kingdom in 1970 but has experienced an increase in tax progressivity and has now a more progressive tax system than the united states or the united kingdom

option value a conceptual overview the importance of nonuser benefits to the process of efficiently allocating natural environments was first emphasized by krutilla 15 a decade and a half ago one of the components of these nonuser benefits is option value originally introduced by weisbrod 23 as relevant for assets that might be difficult to reproduce option value has been the subject of considerable debate perhaps the simplest approach to explaining the meaning of option value is to use an example consider an individual who is uncertain whether he or she will consume the services of a particular asset in the future furthermore assume this individual is also uncertain whether the asset will be available in the future should he

personal income tax progressivity and output volatility evidence from oecd countries this paper investigates empirically the effect of personal income tax progressivity on output volatility using macro data from a sample of oecd countries over the period 1982 2009 our measure of progressivity is based on the difference between the marginal and the average personal income tax rate for the average production worker we find supportive empirical evidence for the hypothesis that higher personal income tax progressivity leads to lower output volatility this effect comes in addition to the stabilizing impact of government size and it is equally important in economic terms all other factors constant countries with more progressive personal income tax systems seem to benefit from stronger automatic stabilizers

a dual approach to modeling corner solutions in recreation demand abstract the dual approach of lee and pitt to estimating demand systems for which individuals often choose not to consume one or more of the available goods provides a utility consistent framework for estimating preferences over visits to recreation sites because of the complexity of the model however this approach has not been applied in the recreation demand literature this paper provides the first application of the model to recreation demand and develops a methodology for conducting welfare analysis relying on monte carlo integration to derive estimates of compensating variation the methods are applied to the demand for fishing in the wisconsin great lakes region

consolidating the evidence on income mobility in the western states of germany and the united states from 1984 to 2006 the cross national intragenerational literature has often analyzed income mobility within short time periods over which mobility might reasonably be thought of as invariant here we argue that a great social transformation german reunification abruptly and permanently altered mobility using standard measures with panel data for the western states of germany and the united states over the period 1984 2006 we find the conventional result that income mobility is greater in germany but when we cut the data into 5 year windows we find that income mobility declines significantly over the years immediately following reunification in germany but not in the united states using both measures jel j1 j6

valuing amenity resources under uncertainty a skeptical view of recent resolutions abstract this paper questions colby and cory s recent characterization 1987 1988 1989 of the appropriate benefit measures to be used to value improvements in the quantity quality or conditions of access to environmental resources under uncertainty the paper uses graham s 1981 analysis of individual and aggregate welfare measurement under uncertainty to demonstrate the problems with colby and cory s recommendations it evaluates their classification of important research issues and summarizes in general terms the difficulties that arise in the practical implementation of the conceptual measures for benefits under uncertainty

lorenz domination and global tax progressivity the paper clarifies the concept of global progressivity as opposed to pointwise progressivity and proposes a summary measure for global progressivity on the basis of lorenz domination as a ranking criterion for income distributions by extending the work of musgrave and thin 1948 and jakobsson 1976 other ad hoc summary measures for global progressivity are evaluated from both a positive and a normative viewpoint domination selon le critere de lorenz et progressivite globale de la fiscalite ce memoire clarifie le concept de progressivite globale par opposition au concept de progressivite ponctuelle et propose une mesure sommaire de progressivite globale fondee sur la domination selon le critere de lorenz ce critere pour la comparaison de distributions de revenus est developpe en prolongeant certains travaux de musgrave et thin 1948 et de jakobsson 1976 l auteur examine aussi de fa on critique d autres mesures sommaires de progressivite globale dans une optique normative et positive

uncertainty benefit cost analysis and the treatment of option value abstract this paper proposes a new conceptual framework for defining welfare measures under uncertainty the planned expenditure function this function describes the locus of expenditures on contingent claims that are required to realize a given level of expected utility to illustrate the convenience of the framework it is used to consider the definition of the option price the appropriate treatment of option value the valuation of risk changes and the definition of non use benefits under uncertainty

option price estimates for water quality improvements a contingent valuation study for the monongahela river abstract we present the findings from a contingent valuation survey designed to estimate the option price bids for the improved recreation resulting from enhanced water quality in the pennsylvania portion of the monongahela river the findings are based on a survey design that used professional interviewers to conduct personal interviews determined from a representative sample of 393 households in addition the research suggests that protest bids and outliers be viewed similarly accordingly a new technique for identifying outlying responses is proposed the findings suggest that the question format affects the option price estimates and that criteria for determining the final sample of responses can have an important influence on contingent valuation results

optimal non linear income taxation for reduction of envy abstract this paper examines the optimal non linear income taxation problem based on equitability an allocation is equitable if no agent envies a proportion of the bundle of any other agent we examine the properties of pareto undominated allocations for various equitability requirements when there is one output the marginal income tax rate can increase only if leisure is a luxury in a multi commodity model with commodity taxes the goods preferred by the low skilled agent and or those with high hicksian elasticities are taxed more heavily when preferences exhibit quasi linearity we can show that the introduction of the equitability constraint increases the marginal income tax rates of the entire population

option value an exposition and extension this article examines the role of the discount rate in making decisions that will have significant implications for the environment the authors begin by providing a rationale for discounting in general and by describing the main factors that determine

measuring option prices from market behavior abstract option prices can be calculated from empirical demand models given knowledge of the utility theoretic structure implied by the demand specifications and the joint density of the random variables consumers face formulas for option price are given for three common weakly complementary demand specifications because it can be difficult to assess behavioral uncertainty and calculate option prices in practice knowledge of the sign of option value is important since it is a guide to the bias from ignoring this type of uncertainty the sign of option value is determined for sources of uncertainty that have proved elusive in previous treatments

brand choice and purchase frequency revisited an application to recreation behavior the role that total purchases play in determining the choice among brands has been considered in microeconomic theory for quite some time but for traditional goods only consumption of outdoor recreation is an unusual good most often measured using an individual s recreational trip adding the trips made on a number of choice occasions seems the obvious way to aggregate this good but doing so leads to several problems in defining a meaningful price index the hicks leontief conditions for aggregation suggest that trips to destinations may be thought of as brand choices on consumption occasions andthe continuous analogue to total purchases may in fact be the individual s total travel an empirical example of the model is used to estimate welfare impacts for a group of anglers

some calculations of lifetime tax incidence this paper reports a set of lifetime tax incidence calculations using a life cycle simulation model for canada due to davies 1979a 1982 a repeatedly stated qualification to annual calculations in the empirical tax incidence literature is that it would be more satisfactory to make calculations on a lifetime basis even though it is acknowledged that lifetime tax incidence could well differ from annual it is widely believed that data and other difficulties make such calculations next to impossible indeed the widespread acceptance of the data problems of lifetime calculations seems also to have inhibited speculation about how lifetime tax incidence might differ from annual as a result redistributive tax policy judgments continue to be based on annual incidence calculations in spite of the reservations many have about their usefulness our paper is intended to reorient discussion towards lifetime tax incidence by providing some initial null hypotheses about the shape of lifetime tax profiles our main finding is that under the standard competitive assumptions common in the incidence literature lifetime and annual incidence calculations both produce mild progression in tax rates across household deciles ignoring the bottom decile in the annual calculation while the income tax is less progressive in lifetime than in annual calculations other taxes are for the most part less regressive also lifetime incidence calculations are much more robust to alternative shifting assumptions than annual calculations in the lifetime context key distributions such as earnings transfer payments and consumption are less heavily concentrated in particular percentiles of the population than is true in annual data as a result changing the allocative series for any particular tax does not have the large effect on incidence results found in annual calculations each component of the tax system is allocated to households grouped by lifetime income using particular distributive series following a procedure similar to that employed in annual incidence calculations for example richard musgrave et al 1974 joseph pechman and benjamin okner 1974 edgar browning and william johnson 1979 w irwin gillespie 1980 in the process we are able to compare lifetime and annual incidence calculations using the same data set in both lifetime and annual calculations we allocate five groups of taxes among households using distributive series which come partly from the 1971 statistics canada survey of consumer finances scf and partly from our life cycle simulation model the scf data are used to construct synthetic longitudinal lifetime profiles of earnings and transfer payments for a sample of 500 households the latter are assigned inheritances by simulating patterns of mortality and bequest these data are then used in the life cycle model to generate lifetime consumption profiles and bequests the earnings transfer and inheritance data plus the model output provide the distributive series on which alternative incidence calculations are based while the incidence calculations presented in this paper use canadian data results would likely be similar for the united states

progressive taxation and long run growth since the emergence of early endogenous growth models larry e jones and rodolfo e manuelli 1990 sergio rebelo 1991 a large body of work has studied the growth effects of tax reform while virtually all of this literature has confined itself to the analysis of flat rate taxes tax codes are generally progressive this paper therefore explores the effects of progressive taxes in conventional growth models with heterogenous households in such frameworks the tax code helps to determine simultaneously the pre tax income distribution and the rate of technical progress we present three main findings first we show that when variations in tax codes stem from differences in progressivity shares of tax revenue in gdp or income may constitute poor proxies for average marginal tax rates in particular we find that the decrease in progressivity associated with the tax reform act of 1986 tra 86 lowered the u s average marginal tax rate by 0 06 to 0 37 percentage points depending on the model used at the same time however the endogenous adjustment in the distribution of income produced by this progressivity change contributed to raising the tax share of income by approximately 0 8 percentage points because marginal tax rates are not easily observable empirical work often has to make use of tax shares in income as an alternative to the degree that lower marginal rates entail less tax distortion our study suggests that relying on tax shares may cause less progressive tax codes to be incorrectly perceived as more distortional second we find that the progressivity decrease implied by tra 86 helped raise u s per capita gdp growth by 0 12 to 0 34 percentage points given the prominence of tra 86 compared with other u s tax reforms over the past four decades these growth effects while not negligible as in robert e lucas 1990 shed doubt on the potential for tax policy to alter significantly prospects for u s long run growth finally consistent with previous work our analysis suggests that the progressivity change associated with tra 86 had a significant effect on income inequality resulting in a 20to 24percent increase in the gini coefficient of income we carry out our analysis using two prototypical endogenous growth models augmented to include a nondegenerate distribution of income these models one first formulated by robert j barro 1990 and the other by rebelo 1991 account for two polar extremes regarding the use of tax proceeds on the one hand in rebelo s two sector framework tax revenue is spent in a way that affects neither the marginal utility of private consumption nor the production possibilities of the private sector on the other hand in the environment envisioned by barro 1990 all tax revenue serves to finance public services that enhance private production interestingly the results we have just described emerge irrespective of the framework under consideration

explaining output volatility the case of taxation this paper presents strong empirical evidence that the observed heterogeneity of output volatility across countries and over time is partly endogenous in particular based on a closed form solution we obtain a long run equilibrium relationship between taxes and output volatility in the stochastic neoclassical growth model by showing that asymptotically the variance of output growth rates is affected by the level of taxes without affecting the mean we estimate the tax semi elasticities on output volatility and provide convincing empirical evidence that taxes are important to understand differences in output volatility among oecd countries

the fast decay process in outdoor recreational activities and the use of alternative count data models despite a number of significant advances in count data modeling during the last two decades and the growing popularity of these models in recreation demand analysis standard count data models are inadequate to address the fast decay process of the dependent variable and the associated long tail this article demonstrates how one and two parameter alternative count data models can be used to properly model the fast decay process and the associated long tail commonly observed in recreation demand analysis econometric results from an illustrative application suggest satisfactory performance of four of the eight alternative count data models proposed in this article

measuring income tax discrimination we propose a procedure for measuring the effect of systematic discrimination in the income tax different socioeconomic groups are assumed to face different tax schedules we show that a welfare loss is caused by the group specificity of schedules the dollar value of which is our measure of discrimination defining vertical equity as the dollar value of the tax system s welfare superiority over an equal yield flat tax discrimination equates to a loss in vertical equity the australian income tax is found to discriminate against wage and salary earners causing a roughly 1 loss of social welfare in 1984

value of recreational fishing in the brazilian pantanal a travel cost analysis using count data models abstract recreational fishing value of the brazilian pantanal is measured using travel cost method tcm we compare non linear poisson and negative binomial count data models to estimate recreational fishing trip demands the count data and truncated models are used primarily to account for non negative integer and truncation properties of recreational fishing trips as suggested by the recreation valuation literature the results reveal that non linear and truncated count data models perform relatively well in our study the economic values of recreational fishing in terms of consumer surplus cs are derived using non linear and truncated models we estimate the cs values from 540 54 to 869 57 per trip resulting in the total social welfare estimate range from 35 to 56 million the study demonstrates a relatively high value of recreational fishing in the pantanal in comparison to similar studies conducted in other parts of the world the findings of this study would be important for resource management decisions in the pantanal and could serve as a reference in valuing similar resources in other ecosystems around the world

progressive taxation redistribution and labor supply the analysis of the effect of progression on labor supply is extended to a model with many consumers the condition for progression to increase labor supply given constant aggregate tax revenue is derived and shown to depend on the income effects resulting from redistribution it is then shown that the optimal linear income tax schedule involves a degree of progression which on the margin does reduce labor supply