analyzing the impact of the world s largest public works project on crime india started the implementation of a rural public works program in 2006 covering all districts of the country within 3 years the program guarantees 100 days of employment per year at minimum wage to each rural household with the goal of reducing joblessness and poverty we exploit the design and implementation of this program to investigate its employment impact on various types of crimes to provide rare evidence on the employment crime relationship in a developing country context we find that employment generated by the program has a negative impact on both property crime and violent crime the same conclusion is reached when we analyze the impact of the program using its staggered rollout structure as the source of identification in a difference in difference analysis although crime elasticities with respect to employment are small this finding represents another dimension of the social benefit generated by the program jel k4 e24 h54

better schools less crime i estimate the impact of attending a first choice middle or high school on adult crime using data from public school choice lotteries in charlotte mecklenburg school district cms seven years after random assignment lottery winners had been arrested for fewer serious crimes and had spent fewer days incarcerated the gain in school quality as measured by peer and teacher inputs was equivalent to moving from one of the lowest ranked schools to one at the district average the reduction in crime comes largely from years after enrollment in the preferred school is complete the impacts are concentrated among high risk youth who commit about 50 less crime across several different outcome measures and scalings of crime by severity i find suggestive evidence that school quality explains more of the impact in high school whereas peer effects are more important in middle school copyright 2011 oxford university press

dynamic asset allocation with event risk major events often trigger abrupt changes in stock prices and volatility we study the implications of jumps in prices and volatility on investment strategies using the event risk framework of duffie pan and singleton 2000 we provide analytical solutions to the optimal portfolio problem event risk dramatically affects the optimal strategy an investor facing event risk is less willing to take leveraged or short positions the investor acts as if some portion of his wealth may become illiquid and the optimal strategy blends both dynamic and buy and hold strategies jumps in prices and volatility both have important effects

crime rates and local labor market opportunities in the united states 1979 1997 the labor market prospects of young unskilled men fell dramatically in the 1980s and improved in the 1990s crime rates show a reverse pattern increasing during the 1980s and falling in the 1990s because young unskilled men commit most crime this paper seeks to establish a causal relationship between the two trends previous work on the relationship between labor markets and crime focused mainly on the relationship between the unemployment rate and crime and found inconclusive results in contrast this paper examines the impact of both wages and unemployment on crime and uses instrumental variables to establish causality we conclude that both wages and unemployment are significantly related to crime but that wages played a larger role in the crime trends over the last few decades these results are robust to the inclusion of deterrence variables controls for simultaneity and controlling for individual and family characteristics

constrained after college student loans and early career occupational choices abstract in the early 2000s a highly selective university introduced a no loans policy under which the loan component of financial aid awards was replaced with grants we use this natural experiment to identify the causal effect of student debt on employment outcomes in the standard life cycle model young people make optimal educational investment decisions if they are able to finance these investments by borrowing against future earnings the presence of debt has only income effects on investment decisions we find that debt causes graduates to choose substantially higher salary jobs and reduces the probability that students choose low paid public interest jobs we also find some evidence that debt affects students academic decisions during college our estimates suggest that recent college graduates are not life cycle agents two potential explanations are that young workers are credit constrained or that they are averse to holding debt we find suggestive evidence that debt reduces students donations to the institution in the years after they graduate and increases the likelihood that a graduate will default on a pledge made during her senior year we argue this result is more likely consistent with credit constraints than with debt aversion

valuing school quality using boundary discontinuities abstract existing research shows that house prices respond to local school quality as measured by average test scores however higher test scores could signal higher academic value added or higher ability more sought after intakes in our research we show that both school value added and student prior achievement linked to the background of children in schools affect households demand for education in order to identify these effects we improve the boundary discontinuity regression methodology by matching identical properties across admissions authority boundaries by allowing for boundary effects and spatial trends by re weighting our data towards transactions that are closest to district boundaries by eliminating boundaries that coincide with major geographical features and by submitting our estimates to a number of novel falsification tests our results survive this battery of tests and show that a one standard deviation change in either school average value added or prior achievement raises prices by around 3

crime and punishment the role of student body characteristics in schools disciplinary behaviours abstractdiscretion in schools discipline choices can provide an efficient and effective misconduct management structure but could lead to discipline based on unrelated factors consequently schools disciplinary decisions can significantly limit students access to education by removing students from familiar learning environments we investigate schools disciplinary decisions for serious misconducts and show that punishments are more severe in schools that do not report misconducts to local law enforcement agencies moreover we show that schools that report fewer misconducts to law enforcement impose more severe punishments when the student body is characterized as having a higher proportion of minority students lower socioeconomic status students and a higher proportion of students who are below the 15th percentile of standardized test scores these results suggest that between school punishment differentials are associated with student body traits

who is against immigration a cross country investigation of individual attitudes toward immigrants abstract this paper empirically analyzes economic and noneconomic determinants of individual attitudes toward immigrants within and across countries the two survey data sets used covering a wide range of developed and developing countries make it possible to test for interactive effects between individual characteristics and country level attributes in particular theory predicts that the correlation between pro immigration attitudes and individual skill should be related to the skill composition of natives relative to immigrants in the destination country skilled individuals should favor immigration in countries where natives are more skilled than immigrants and oppose it otherwise results based on direct and indirect measures of the relative skill composition are consistent with these predictions noneconomic variables also are correlated with immigration attitudes but they don t alter significantly the labor market results

education and crime over the life cycle we compare two large scale policy interventions aimed at reducing crime subsidizing high school completion and increasing the length of prison sentences to this purpose we use a life cycle model with endogenous education and crime choices we apply the model to property crime and calibrate it to u s data we find that targeting crime reductions through increases in high school graduation rates entails large efficiency and welfare gains these gains are absent if the same crime reduction is achieved by increasing the length of sentences we also find that general equilibrium effects explain roughly one half of the reduction in crime from subsidizing high school

using electoral cycles in police hiring to estimate the effect of police on crime comment previous empirical studies have uncovered little evidence that police reduce crime possibly due to simultaneity problems this paper uses the timing of mayoral and gubernatorial elections as an instrumental variable to identify a causal effect of police on crime increases in the size of police forces are shown to be disproportionately concentrated in mayoral and gubernatorial election years increases in police are shown to substantially reduce violent crime but have a smaller impact on property crime the null hypothesis that the marginal social benefit of reduced crime equals the costs of hiring additional police cannot be rejected

effects of immigrant legalization on crime in the late 1970s rates of undocumented immigration into the united states began to increase dramatically fearing negative labor market and social effects congress passed the 1986 immigration reform and control act irca the primary purpose of the bill was to enhance the controls on the hiring of undocumented immigrants making it illegal to hire or recruit undocumented immigrants however the legislation also represented a near universal legalization of immigrants in the united states a group comprising almost three million people about 1 percent of the nation s population this paper examines the effects that the irca had on the commission of crime in the united states i provide estimates of the total effect of this legalization exploiting the large amount of variation in both the geographical distribution and the quasi random timing of the legalizations i find persistent decreases in crime of 3 percent to 5 percent primarily driven by a drop in property crimes this fall in crime is equivalent to 120 000 180 000 fewer violent and property crimes committed each year across the nation due to legalization moreover the declines in crime cannot be explained by existing trends economic conditions declines in drug crimes changes to police forces and prison populations or other common explanations of changes in crime rates during this period

asset price and wealth dynamics in a financial market with heterogeneous agents abstract this paper considers a discrete time model of a financial market with one risky asset and one risk free asset where the asset price and wealth dynamics are determined by the interaction of two groups of agents fundamentalists and chartists in each period each group allocates its wealth between the risky asset and the safe asset according to myopic expected utility maximization but the two groups have heterogeneous beliefs about the price change over the next period the chartists are trend extrapolators while the fundamentalists expect that the price will return to the fundamental we assume that investors optimal demand for the risky asset depends on wealth as a result of crra utility a market maker is assumed to adjust the market price at the end of each trading period based on excess demand and on changes of the underlying reference price the model results in a nonlinear discrete time dynamical system with growing price and wealth processes but it is reduced to a stationary system in terms of asset returns and wealth shares of the two groups it is shown that the long run market dynamics are highly dependent on the parameters which characterize agents behaviour as well as on the initial condition moreover for wide ranges of the parameters a locally stable fundamental steady state coexists with a stable non fundamental steady state or with a stable closed orbit where only chartists survive in the long run such cases require the numerical and graphical investigation of the basins of attraction other dynamic scenarios include periodic orbits and more complex attractors where in general both types of agents survive in the long run with time varying wealth fractions

concepts technical issues and uses of the russell yasuda kasai financial planning model this paper discusses technical aspects of the russell yasuda kasai financial planning model these include the models for the discrete distribution scenario generation processes for the uncertain parameters of the model the mathematical approach used to develop the infinite horizon end effects part of the model a comparison of algorithms used in the model s solution and a comparison of the multistage stochastic linear programming model with the previous technology static mean variance analysis experience and benefits of the model in yasuda kasai s financial planning process is also discussed

juvenile incarceration human capital and future crime evidence from randomly assigned judges over 130 000 juveniles are detained in the united states each year with 70 000 in detention on any given day yet little is known about whether such a penalty deters future crime or interrupts social and human capital formation in a way that increases the likelihood of later criminal behavior this article uses the incarceration tendency of randomly assigned judges as an instrumental variable to estimate causal effects of juvenile incarceration on high school completion and adult recidivism estimates based on over 35 000 juvenile offenders over a 10 year period from a large urban county in the united states suggest that juvenile incarceration results in substantially lower high school completion rates and higher adult incarceration rates including for violent crimes in an attempt to understand the large effects we found that incarceration for this population could be very disruptive greatly reducing the likelihood of ever returning to school and for those who do return significantly increasing the likelihood of being classified as having an emotional or behavioral disorder jel codes k140 i210

evolutionary portfolio selection with liquidity shocks insurance companies invest their wealth in financial markets the wealth evolution strongly depends on the success of their investment strategies but also on liquidity shocks which occur during unfavourable years when indemnities to be paid to the clients exceed collected premia an investment strategy that does not take liquidity shocks into account exposes insurance companies to the risk of bankruptcy when liquidity shocks and low investment payoffs jointly appear therefore regulatory authorities impose solvency restrictions to ensure that insurance companies are able to face their obligations with high probability this paper analyses the behaviour of insurance companies in an evolutionary framework we show that an insurance company that merely satisfies regulatory constraints will eventually vanish from the market we give a more restrictive no bankruptcy condition for the investment strategies and we characterize trading strategies that are evolutionary stable i e able to drive out any mutation

local labor supply responses to immigration how natives adjust is central to an understanding of the impact of immigration in destination countries using detailed labor force data for malaysia for 1990 2010 we provide estimates of native responses to immigration on multiple extensive margins and rare evidence for a developing country instrumental variable estimates show that increased immigration to a state causes substantial internal inward migration consistent with the fact that immigration increases the demand for native workers relocating malaysian workers are accompanied by their spouses three quarters of whom are housewives and children who attend school we find that these effects are concentrated among middle and lower skilled malaysians

does aid matter measuring the effect of student aid on college attendance and completion does student aid increase college attendance or simply subsidize costs for infra marginal students settling the question empirically is a challenge because aid is correlated with many characteristics that influence educational investment decisions a shift in financial aid policy that affects some youth but not others can provide an identifying source of variation in aid in 1982 congress eliminated the social security student benefit program which at its peak provided grants totaling 3 7 billion a year to one out of ten college students using the death of a parent as a proxy for social security beneficiary status i find that offering 1 000 1998 of grant aid increases educational attainment by about 0 16 years and the probability of attending college by four percentage points the elasticities of attendance and completed years of college with respect to schooling costs are 0 7 to 0 8 the evidence suggests that aid has a threshold effect a student who has crossed the hurdle of college entry with the assistance of aid is more likely to continue schooling later in life than one who has never attempted college this is consistent with a model in which there are fixed costs of college entry finally a cost benefit analysis indicates that the aid program examined by this paper was a cost effective use of government resources this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

the crime reducing effect of education in this article we study the crime reducing potential of education presenting causal statistical estimates based upon a law that changed the compulsory school leaving age in england and wales we frame the analysis in a regression discontinuity setting and uncover significant decreases in property crime from reductions in the proportion of people with no educational qualifications and increases in the age of leaving school that resulted from the change in the law the findings show that improving education can yield significant social benefits and can be a key policy tool in the drive to reduce crime

do dropouts drop out too soon wealth health and happiness from compulsory schooling abstract this paper uses compulsory schooling laws to evaluate high school dropout decisions the main empirical result is that lifetime wealth increases by about 15 with an extra year of compulsory schooling students compelled to stay in school are also less likely to report being in poor health unemployed and unhappy the main conclusion is that high school aversion alone is unlikely to explain why dropouts forgo substantial gains to lifetime wealth the results are more consistent with the possibility that adolescents ignore or heavily discount future consequences when deciding to drop out of school if teenagers are myopic making school compulsory or offering incentives to stay in school may help improve lifetime outcomes

how and why does immigration affect crime evidence from malaysia the perception that immigration fuels crime is an important source of anti immigrant sentiment using malaysian data for 2003 10 this paper provides estimates of the overall impact of economic imm

formulation of the russell yasuda kasai financial planning model this paper describes the formulation of the russell yasuda kasai financial planning model including the motivation for the model the presentation complements the discussion of the technical details of the financial modeling process and the managerial impact of its use to help allocate the firm s assets over time discussed in carin o et al 1994 1998 respectively the multistage stochastic linear program incorporates yasuda kasai s asset and liability mix over a five year horizon followed by an infinite horizon steady state end effects period the objective is to maximize expected long run profits less expected penalty costs from constraint violations over the infinite horizon scenarios are used to represent the uncertain parameter distributions the constraints represent the institutional cash flow legal tax and other limitations on the asset and liability mix over time

compulsory schooling laws and school crime extensive literature demonstrates that compulsory schooling laws improve educational attainment well being civic involvement and labour market outcomes however at risk youth incapacitated to schools may impact the learning environment and school safety the purpose of this article is to study whether raising the minimum dropout age mda requirement above 16 increases crime committed within us public high schools a difference in difference estimation exploits changes in state level mda laws over time and indicates that schools in states that raise their mda requirement to 18 incur more overall crime relative to schools in states that do not while no effect on overall crime is identified when the mda requirement is raised to 17 furthermore these effects persist for 4 years after passage and more intensely in metropolitan areas coupling this research with existing literature suggests that when the mda requirement is raised to 18 only a small portion of the observed reduction in juvenile crime is

identifying the effect of unemployment on crime abstract in this paper we analyze the relationship between unemployment and crime using u s state data we estimate the effect of unemployment on the rates of seven felony offenses we control extensively for state level demographic and economic factors and estimate specifications that include state specific time trends state effects and year effects in addition we use prime defense contracts and a state specific measure of exposure to oil shocks as instruments for unemployment rates we find significantly positive effects of unemployment on property crime rates that are stable across model specifications our estimates suggest that a substantial portion of the decline in property crime rates during the 1990s is attributable to the decline in the unemployment rate the evidence for violent crime is considerably weaker however a closer analysis of the violent crime of rape yields some evidence that the employment prospects of males are weakly related to state rape rates

equilibrium impact of value at risk regulation abstract we study the asset pricing implications of value at risk var regulation in incomplete continuous time economies with intermediate expenditure stochastic opportunity set and heterogeneous attitudes to risk our findings show that because of an anticipatory effect of var constraints on the optimal hedging demand the partial equilibrium incentives of var regulation can lead banks to increase their risk exposure in high volatility states in general equilibrium var constraints can produce unambiguously lower interest rates and higher equity sharpe ratios the var impact on equity volatility and equity expected returns is ambiguous

an asset allocation puzzle this paper examines popular advice on portfolio allocation among cash bonds and stocks it documents that this advice is inconsistent with the mutual fund separation theorem which states that all investors should hold the same composition of risky assets in contrast to the theorem popular advisors recommend that aggressive investors hold a lower ratio of bonds to stocks than conservative investors the paper explores various possible explanations of this puzzle and finds them unsatisfactory copyright 1997 by american economic association

structural estimation of a becker ehrlich equilibrium model of crime allocating police across cities to reduce crime we develop a model of crime in which the number of police the crime rate the arrest rate the employment rate and the wage rate are joint outcomes of a subgame perfect nash equilibrium the local government chooses the size of its police force and citizens choose among work home and crime alternatives we estimate the model using metropolitan statistical area msa level data we use the estimated model to examine the effects on crime of targeted federal transfers to local governments to increase police we find that knowledge about unobserved msa specific attributes is critical for the optimal allocation of police across msa s

markets do not select for a liquidity preference as behavior towards risk tobin 1958 has argued that in the face of potential capital losses on bonds it is reasonable to hold cash as a means to transfer wealth over time it is shown that this assertion cannot be sustained taking into account the evolution of wealth of cash holders versus non cash holders cash holders will be driven out of the market in the long run by traders who only use a risky long lived asset to transfer wealth moreover bond holders do not survive in the presence of only stock holders even if the payofi of bonds dominates the dividend of stock

crime and economic incentives we explore the role that economic incentives particularly changes in wages at the bottom end of the wage distribution play in determining crime rates we use data on the police force areas of england and wales between 1975 and 1996 and find relative falls in the wages of low wage workers lead to increases in crime we carry out a number of experiments with different wage measures including a wage measure that accounts for the effects of changes in the composition of employment these reinforce the picture of a strong association between the low wage labor market and crime the result that incentives play a central role is reinforced further by the strong impact on crime of deterrence measures and of a measure of the returns to crime

criminal deterrence revisiting the issue with a birth cohort we estimate the general deterrent effect of criminal justice resources on criminal behavior using panel data for a sample representative of young men in u s urban areas our data which combine individual level information on arrests and personal characteristics with aggregate information on criminal justice resources allow us to obtain deterrence measures that reflect theoretical concepts and are of potential policy relevance we find robust evidence of a general deterrent effect flowing from criminal justice particularly police resources the nature of our data also allows us to conduct extensive exogeneity tests and to explore a number of possible third causes for the deterrent effect we find strong evidence that our deterrence variables are exogenous and no evidence that our deterrence result stems from commonly hypothesized third causes copyright 1994 by mit press

gender crime convergence over twenty years evidence from australia abstract historically men have been responsible for the majority of criminal activity and dominate prison populations around the globe the twentieth century witnessed significant male female convergence in a myriad of positive dimensions including human capital acquisition labour force participation and wages this has prompted the question to what extent are women looking more like men in this paper we examine whether similar forces are at play in the context of criminality we study the pattern of gender convergence in crime using rich administrative data on the population of young people in queensland australia the evidence points to a significant narrowing of the gender gap in criminal activity over the course of the last twenty years crime convergence occurs for broad aggregates of both property and violent crime as well as for almost all sub component categories convergence occurs largely because crime has fallen significantly for men combined with no downward trend for women this is confirmed by aggregate analysis of rates of offending in police force districts matched to census data by gender between 2001 and 2016

persistent commodity shocks and transitory crime effects abstract this paper studies the dynamic response of crime to a positive income shock we estimate the short and medium run effects that an increase in copper price had on the local economy and on criminal activity in chile which is the world s leading copper producer after a decade of high prices mining municipalities did not exhibit lower crime rates compared to non mining municipalities to explain this counterintuitive result we investigated heterogeneous dynamic effects and observed that property crimes decreased only at the beginning of the boom as the dynamics of unskilled employment are consistent with the crime cycle we argue that crime evolves due to temporary labor market adjustments

market wages and youth crime to study the problem of widespread youth crime i analyze a timeallocation model in which consumers face parametric wages and diminishing marginal returns to crime the theory motivates an econometric model that i estimate using data from the national longitudinal survey of youth my estimates suggest that youth behavior is responsive to price incentives and that falling real wages may have been an important determinant of rising youth crime during the 1970s and 1980s moreover wage differentials explain a substantial component of both the racial differential in criminal participation and the age distribution of crime

panic on the streets of london police crime and the july 2005 terror attacks in this paper we study the causal impact of police on crime by looking at what happened to crime before and after the terror attacks that hit central london in july 2005 the attacks resulted in a large redeployment of police officers to central london boroughs as compared to outer london in fact police deployment in central london increased by over 30 percent in the six weeks following the july 7 bombings during this time crime fell significantly in central relative to outer london study of the timing of the crime reductions and their magnitude the types of crime which were more likely to be affected and a series of robustness tests looking at possible biases all make us confident that our research approach identifies a causal impact of police on crime implementing an instrumental variable approach shows an elasticity of crime with respect to police of approximately 0 3 so that a 10 percent increase in police activity reduces crime by around 3 percent

the effect of education on crime evidence from prison inmates arrests and self reports we estimate the effect of high school graduation on participation in criminal activity accounting for endogeneity of schooling we begin by analyzing the effect of high school graduation on incarceration using census data instrumental variable estimates using changes in state compulsory attendance laws as an instrument for high school graduation uncover a significant reduction in incarceration for both blacks and whites when estimating the impact of high school graduation only ols and iv estimators estimate different weighted sums of the impact of each schooling progression on the probability of incarceration we clarify the relationship between ols and iv estimates and show that the weights placed on the impact of each schooling progression can explain differences in the estimates overall the estimates suggest that completing high school reduces the probability of incarceration by about 76 percentage points for whites and 3 4 percentage points for blacks we corroborate these findings using fbi data on arrests that distinguish among different types of crimes the biggest impacts of graduation are associated with murder assault and motor vehicle theft we also examine the effect of drop out on self reported crime in the nlsy and find that our estimates for imprisonment and arrest are caused by changes in criminal behavior and not educational differences in the probability of arrest or incarceration conditional on crime we estimate that the externality of education is about 14 26 of the private return to schooling suggesting that a significant part of the social return to education comes in the form of externalities from crime reduction

does incarceration length affect labor market outcomes abstractthis paper studies how longer incarceration spells affect offenders labor market outcomes by using a reform that increased incarceration lengths by approximately 1 month i use detailed register data for offenders who predominantly serve incarceration spells of 1 2 months i analyze the sample for several years prior to and after incarceration and show that the reform led to an exogenous increase in incarceration lengths i find that the longer incarceration spells result in lower unemployment rates and higher earnings possibly because marginal increases in short incarceration spells improve conditions and incentives for rehabilitation while the costs of jail related to these outcomes are unaffected i show that the estimates are robust to different econometric specifications and further provide evidence that my results are not driven by changes in macroeconomic conditions

estimating average and local average treatment effects of education when compulsory schooling laws really matter the change to the minimum school leaving age in the united kingdom from 14 to 15 had a powerful and immediate effect that redirected almost half the population of 14 year olds in the mid twentieth century to stay in school for one more year the magnitude of this impact provides a rare opportunity to a estimate local average treatment effects late of high school that come close to population average treatment effects ate and b estimate returns to education using a regression discontinuity design instead of previous estimates that rely on difference in differences methodology or relatively weak instruments comparing late estimates for the united states and canada where very few students were affected by compulsory school laws to the united kingdom estimates provides a test as to whether instrumental variables iv returns to schooling often exceed ordinary least squares ols because gains are high only for small and peculiar groups among the more general population i find instead that the benefits from compulsory schooling are very large whether these laws have an impact on a majority or minority of those exposed

the labour market effects of immigration and emigration in oecd countries in this paper we quantify the labor market effects of migration flows in oecd countries during the 1990 s based on a new global database on the bilateral stock of migrants by education level we simulate various outcomes using an aggregate model of labor markets parameterized by a range of estimates from the literature we find that immigration had a positive effect on the wages of less educated natives and it increased or left unchanged the average native wages emigration instead had a negative effect on the wages of less educated native workers and increased inequality within countries

the great mexican emigration abstract in this paper we examine net emigration from mexico over the period 1960 to 2000 the data are consistent with labor supply shocks having made a substantial contribution to mexican emigration accounting for two fifths of mexican labor flows to the united states over the last two decades of the twentieth century net emigration rates by mexican state birth year cohort display a strong positive correlation with the initial size of the mexican cohort relative to the corresponding u s cohort in states with long histories of emigration the effects of cohort size on emigration are relatively strong consistent with the existence of preexisting networks

birth rates and border crossings latin american migration to the us canada spain and the uk we use census data for the us canada spain and uk to estimate bilateral migration rates to these countries from 25 latin american and caribbean nations over the period 1980 to 2005 latin american migration to the us is responsive to labor supply shocks as predicted by earlier changes in birth cohort sizes and labor demand shocks associated with balance of payments crises and natural disasters latin american migration to canada spain and the uk in contrast is largely insensitive to these shocks responding only to civil and military conflict the results are consistent with us immigration policy toward latin america which is relatively permissive toward illegal entry being mediated by market forces and immigration policy in the other countries which favor skilled workers and asylum seekers among other groups insulating them from labor market shocks in the region

forced to be rich returns to compulsory schooling in britain do students benefit from compulsory schooling in an important article oreopoulos 2006 studied the 1947 british compulsory schooling law change and found large returns to schooling of about 15 using the general household survey ghs re analysing this dataset we find much smaller returns of about 3 on average with no evidence of any positive return for women and a return for men of 4 7 additionally we utilise the new earnings survey panel data set nespd that has earnings information superior to that in the ghs and find similar estimates zero returns for women and returns of 3 to 4 for men