definition consistent measurement of exchange market pressure currencies can be under severe pressure but in a managed exchange rate regime that is not fully visible via the change in the exchange rate the literature has proposed a way to measure such exchange market pressure emp indirectly by adding interest rate changes and forex interventions to the exchange rate change we demonstrate that this measure is not consistent with the definition of emp and develop a new measure that is consistent this is first derived within the commonly used monetary exchange rate model then we generalize the analysis by avoiding the use of an exchange rate model we find that the interest rate should not be taken in the first difference form used so far but rather in level form and relative to the interest rate chosen if the country had no exchange rate objective applications on the european monetary system and east asian crises confirm that this improvement is highly relevant in practice

bubbles and experience an experiment we investigate the occurrence of bubble crash pricing patterns in laboratory financial markets with a mixture of experienced and inexperienced traders we find that even with a minority of experienced traders bubbles are substantially abated

an exchange market pressure measure for cross country analysis abstract emp measures in the existing literature are oriented towards applications in crisis dating and prediction we propose a modified emp measure where cross country comparisons are possible this is the sum of the observed change in the exchange rate with an estimated counterfactual of the magnitude of the change in the exchange rate associated with the observed currency intervention we construct a multi country dataset for emp in each month this opens up many new research possibilities

the effects of nonstationarities on performance in call markets abstract this experiment investigates the responsiveness of laboratory call markets to repetitive systematic shocks in underlying demand or supply conditions results of nine call markets conducted under three treatment conditions are compared with nine previously reported double auctions the informationally sparse call auctions perform no worse than the double auctions allocative efficiency is similar across institutions and call markets appear to track underlying equilibrium price movements more accurately than double auctions

the effect of initial lease periods on price discovery in laboratory tradable fishing allowance markets abstract newly established tradable fishing allowance markets are often accompanied by a period of high price volatility these fluctuations complicate capital investment decisions and play a significant role in determining outcomes for the traders involved this paper reports an evaluation of two market design features that may reduce volatility during price discovery a uniform price auction in which all trades within a period take place at the same price and an initial lease period which prohibits permanent allowance transfers at the beginning of the program we find that initial lease periods effectively reduce volatility once permanent trading is introduced

measuring and estimating exchange market pressure in the eu abstract this paper estimates a model of exchange market pressure for several eu currencies vis a vis the german mark over the period 1980 94 it differs from previous work in that we use principal components analysis to derive a measure of exchange market pressure rather than adding exchange rate and reserves changes or using ad hoc weighting schemes secondly we also try to explain movements in our measure of exchange market pressure by a wealth augmented monetary model the results suggest that exchange market pressure can indeed be explained by differential money growth the change in the long term interest rate differential real depreciation budget deficit and the current account for five members of the eu s exchange rate mechanism

bubbles crashes and endogenous uncertainty in linked asset and product markets in laboratory asset markets subjects trade shares of a firm whose profits in a linked product market determine dividends treatments vary whether dividend information is revealed once per period or in real time and whether the firm is controlled by a profit maximizing robot or human subject the latter variation induces uncertainty about firm behavior bridging the gap between laboratory and field markets our data replicate well known features of laboratory asset markets e g bubbles suggesting these are robust to a market based dividend process compared to a sample of previous experiments both real time information revelation and endogenous uncertainty impede the bubble mitigating impact of experience

how trading institutions affect financial market performance some laboratory evidence i introduction trading institutions vary considerably across contemporary financial markets 1 but most can be classified into one of two basic types the continuous double auction da allows traders to submit public offers to buy or to sell and to accept other traders offers at any moment in time the double auction institution offers immediacy but non uniform transaction prices the other basic trading institution the clearinghouse ch gathers offers and clears them at a unified price at a pre specified time it sacrifices immediacy for uniform transaction prices 2 the two types of institutions have co existed and evolved for centuries but now are emerging in new electronic versions market participants and policy makers would like to know which institution or variant or combination is most efficient but theoretical and empirical work to date provides little guidance this paper reports on a series of laboratory asset markets experiments designed to compare variants of the double auction and clearinghouse trading institutions the markets are small usually with eight or nine traders but the traders are profit motivated and experienced with the trading institutions the traded asset has uncertain market value and traders receive useful but inconclusive private information they can only learn the asset s true value during the course of trade laboratory markets offer several advantages for empirical study of financial market institutions first private information is observable even controllable in the laboratory and therefore the investigator can directly measure market efficiency 3 second the complexity of the environment can be varied systematically in the laboratory and its effects on market performance can be separated from the effects of the market institution and other forces finally the market institution itself is controllable in the laboratory so it is possible to make valid causal inferences on how the market institution shapes market performance i begin with a survey of relevant literature and other preliminaries in the rest of this section section ii outlines the laboratory procedures the creation of trading environments of varying complexity the electronic implementation of the clearinghouse and double auction trading institutions the computation of theoretical benchmark prices and allocations and the measurement of market performance section iii collects the results following an illustrative account of a double auction trading period and a clearinghouse trading period i use descriptive statistics to summarize market performance in each of the thirty nine experiments the main conclusions are based on statistical comparisons of market performance across alternative market institutions the clearinghouse institution does surprisingly well it delivers greater market depth than the double auction discovers prices at least as efficiently and produces final allocations almost as efficient as the double auction the main institutional variants examined in this paper concern the amount of information made public regarding order placement orderflow the data suggest that public display of the orderflow enhances double auction efficiency but may impair clearinghouse efficiency a study of trading volume shows higher volume in the double auction in both institutions volume increases when important private news arrives and when the trading period is about to end the paper concludes with a brief summary and discussion of the results a companion paper friedman 1991 considers the effects of awarding various privileges to some but not all traders copeland and friedman 1987 1991 provide useful background information on laboratory procedures and computerized double auction markets instructions for the current experiments are available on request the need for empirical work a skeptic might argue that empirical work is unnecessary the mere fact that the double auction and clearinghouse institutions both persist in major financial markets implies that both are highly efficient because a more efficient institution would displace less efficient institutions

bubbles crashes and endogenous expectations in experimental spot asset markets1 spot asset trading is studied in an environment in which all investors receive the same dividend from a known probability distribution at the end of each of t 15 or 30 trading periods fourteen of twenty two experiments exhibit price bubbles followed by crashes relative to intrinsic dividend value when traders are experienced this reduces but does not eliminate the probability of a bubble the regression of changes in mean price on lagged excess bids number of bids minus the number of offers in the previous period p pt a f b 1 o l supports the hypothesis that a e d the one period expected value of the dividend and that f 0 where excess bids is a surrogate measure of excess demand arising from homegrown capital gains losses expectations thus when bt 1 o goes to zero we have convergence to rational expectations in the sense of fama 1970 that arbitrage becomes unprofitable the observed bubble phenomenon can also be interpreted as a form of temporary myopia tirole 1982 from which agents learn that capital gains expectations are only temporarily sustainable ultimately inducing common expectations or priors tirole 1982 four of twenty six experiments all using experienced subjects yield outcomes that appear to the chart s eye to converge early to rational expectations although even in these cases we get 0 and small price fluctuations of a few cents that invite scalping

decoupling between human development and energy consumption within footprint accounts abstract historically the growth of energy consumption has fuelled human development but this approach is no longer socially and environmentally sustainable recent analyses suggest that some individual countries have responded to this issue successfully by decoupling total primary energy supply from human development increase however globalisation and international trade have allowed high income countries to outsource industrial production to lower income countries thereby increasingly relying on foreign energy use to satisfy their own consumption of goods and services accounting for the import of embodied energy in goods and services this study proposes an alternative estimation of the decoupling index based on the total primary energy footprint rather than total primary energy supply an analysis of 126 countries over the years 2000 2014 demonstrates that previous studies based on energy supply highly overestimated decoupling footprint based results on the other hand show an overall decrease of the decoupling index for most countries 93 out of 126 there is a reduction of the number of both absolutely decoupled countries from 40 to 27 and relatively decoupled countries from 29 to 17 and an increase of coupled countries from 55 to 80 furthermore the study shows that decoupling is not a phenomenon characterising only high income countries due to improvements in energy efficiency but is also occurring in countries with low human development index and low energy consumption finally six exemplary countries have been identified which were able to maintain a continuous decoupling trend from these exemplary countries lessons have been identified in order to boost the necessary global decoupling of energy consumption and achieved welfare

traders expectations in asset markets experimental evidence we elicit traders predictions of future price trajectories in repeated experimental markets for a 15 period lived asset we find that individuals beliefs about prices are adaptive and primarily based on past trends in the current and previous markets in which they have participated most traders do not anticipate market downturns the first time they participate in a market and when experienced they typically overestimate the time remaining before market peaks and downturns occur when prices deviate from fundamental values belief data are informative to an observer in predicting the direction of future price movements and the timing of market peaks

how do experienced traders respond to inflows of inexperienced traders an experimental analysis we conducted asset market experiments where one experienced subject interacts with five inexperienced subjects to investigate how experienced subjects change their price forecasts and trading behavior when faced with strategic uncertainty caused by inflows of inexperienced subjects only half the experienced subjects initially forecasted prices deviating more from the fundamental values in the market with five inexperienced subjects than in the final round of the experiment in which they had previously participated furthermore the majority of our experienced subjects did not change their trading behavior many experienced subjects act as price stabilizers when the inflow of inexperienced subjects is not associated with other changes in market conditions

price bubbles and crashes in experimental call markets abstract price bubbles relative to intrinsic dividend value are observed using a call market trading institution market prices tend to track intrinsic value only when the same group of highly experienced traders participate in three consecutive 15 round markets

papers in experimental economics competitive market institutions double auctions vs sealed bid offer auctions consider a market with the following characteristics 1 privacy that is each agent knows only his own valuation or cost conditions 2 exchange follows the rules of the oral double auction that is buyers freely announce bids or accept offers and sellers freely announce offers or accept bids 3 aggregate market supply and demand per trading period is stationary for at least two to three periods and 4 there are at least four buyers and as many sellers the literature reporting the results of a large number of experimental markets with these characteristics documents what appears to be a remarkably rapid convergence to a competitive equilibrium ce however any claim of double auction da convergence to the ce can only have meaning in one of three senses i the ce is attained immediately ii after t periods of trading some measure of the market s state such as mean price is nearer relative to experimental sampling variability to a ce than to some distinct alternative equilibrium such as a monopoly or nash equilibrium iii after t periods of trading this measure is nearer to a ce in da experimental markets than in markets organized under a different institution of contract for example a sealed bid auction since everything from electrons and the stars to rats and people yield state measures subject to error or random variation the deterministic criterion i can have no serious scientific standing by such criteria any hypothesis can be rejected and there could be no science of physics biology or economics 2 with the exception of certain very simple markets such as single object auctions or certain idealized markets such as the cournot quantity adjuster model economics has only two concepts of equilibrium monopoly and competitive the only formal model of da trading that has been proposed see david easley and john ledyard p 6 predicts stochastic convergence in finite time with probability one to a ce hence the only test alternative to the ce research hypothesis in da markets is a monopoly or monopsony equilibrium experimentalists have not reported statistical tests of the ce professor department of economics university of arizona assistant professor department of economics indiana university instructor department of economics university of arizona and sandia national laboratories albuquerque nm respectively we are indebted to the national science foundation for research support and to art denzau and mort kamien for helpful comments there is an early and recently growing body of experimental evidence for convergence to a competitive equilibrium under double auction rules the earliest evidence contained in experiments initiated in january 1956 is reported in smith 1962 1964 1965 1976 however these early experiments used between twenty and fifty or so participant buyers and sellers because in keeping with prevailing professional beliefs it was thought that a ce was unlikely to be approached unless numbers were quite large using large numbers was not unreasonable since it is a good beginning procedure to give a theory whatever is believed to be its best shot more recent evidence using six buyers six sellers and two traders in speculative da markets with cyclical demand is reported by r m miller charles plott and smith and williams 1979 for evidence from a comparison of oral and computerized da experiments with four buyers and four sellers see williams 1980 for further evidence in the context of the study of price controls see m isaac and plott 1981b and smith and williams 1981b in the context of a conspiracy study see isaac and plott 1981a in the context of comparisons between da and posted offer pricing see jon ketcham smith and williams in the context of a study of four variations on da rules see smith and williams 1980 all of these more recent papers report double auction experiments using no more than four buyers and four sellers 2as frederick mosteller once noted if you wanted to reject the inverse square law of attraction try tossing a sheet of paper out the window

liability dollarization exchange market pressure and fear of floating empirical evidence for turkey the objective of this article is to examine the relationship between liability dollarization and the exchange market pressure emp in turkey within an autoregressive distributed lag ardl and granger causality framework using monthly data from 1991 12 to 2006 08 the findings suggest that there exists a long term equilibrium relationship between emp and liability dollarization where liability dollarization granger causes emp both in the short and long run with no evidence of reverse causality this suggests that the predominance of foreign currency liabilities in the banks balance sheets in turkey induces a selling pressure in the exchange market as well as a fear of floating

nonspeculative bubbles in experimental asset markets lack of common knowledge of rationality vs actual irrationality we report the results of an experiment designed to study the role of speculation in the formation of bubbles and crashes in laboratory asset markets in a setting in which speculation is not possible bubbles and crashes are observed the results suggest that the departures from fundamental values are not caused by the lack of common knowledge of rationality leading to speculation but rather by behavior that itself exhibits elements of irrationality much of the trading activity that accompanies bubble formation in markets where speculation is possible is due to the fact that there is no other activity available for participants in the experiment

a re examination of the monetary model of exchange market pressure canada 1963 1988 in re evaluating the performance of the girton and roper 1977 two country monetary model of exchange market pressure emp for canada estimates are provided for an extended specification that allows for unrestricted dynamics results show the hypothesized negative effect of domestic credit growth on emp to be supported throughout the relevance both of the dynamics and of the hypothesized unitary tradeoff between exchange rate and international reserve movements for bank of canada policy is demonstrated for the sequence of fixed and floating exchange rate regimes contained in the 1963 1 1988 1 sample

exchange market pressure in postwar brazil an application of the girton roper monetary model this study applies lance girton and don roper s hereafter g r monetary model of exchange market pressure to the postwar brazilian monetary experience the model was designed specifically for the canadian managed float during the period 1952 62 the object of their model is to explain what they term exchange market pressure that is the pressure on foreign exchange reserves and the exchange rate when there exists an excess of domestic money supply over money demand in a managed floating exchange rate regime the basic theoretical proposition is that any such excess supply of money can be relieved by an exchange depreciation a loss in foreign reserves or in the context of a managed float by some combination of the two in this sense the g r managed float model used here is firmly rooted in the modern monetary approach to exchange rates and the balance of payments brazil provides a particularly good example for testing this approach not only because it is in many senses a unique example of a postwar managed float system but also because it can be treated as a small open economy in the sense that world prices and monetary conditions faced by brazil are taken as given this particularly suits the purpose of most modern monetary models which make this assumption and obviates the problems of monetary dependence and neutralization dealt with in the pioneering g r paper specifically the small country assumption permits us to devise a simple one country equation of managed floating which depends upon four essential ingredients 1 money demand 2 money supply 3 purchasing power parity and 4 monetary equilibrium 2 furthermore in brazil a much greater proportion of exchange market pressure was absorbed by exchange rate depreciation than in the canadian case where changes in reserves were large relative to exchange rate movements in short postwar brazil provides a singularly good opportunity to test the monetary model of exchange market pressure section i briefly states the essential elements of the monetary model and derives the equation to be tested for the brazilian experience from 1955 to 1975 section ii reports empirical results for the exchange market pressure model and section iii examines the applicability of the relative version of purchasing power parity for the time period considered section iv summarizes the results and discusses the merits of the monetary approach in light of the brazilian experience

exchange market mayhem the antecedents and aftermath of speculative attacks exchange market mayhem the antecedents and aftermath of speculative attacks this paper evaluates the causes and consequences of episodes of turbulence in foreign exchange markets using data from 1959 through 1993 for twenty oecd countries we consider the antecedents and aftermath of devaluations and revaluations flotations fixings and speculative attacks which may not be successful we find that realignments of fixed exchange rates are alike devaluations are preceded by political instability budget and current account deficits and fast growth of money and prices revaluations are mirror images of devaluations speculative attacks resemble devaluations but money growth and inflation are more endemic and there is no last minute attempt to tighten monetary policy in contrast few consistent correlations link regime transitions like flotations or fixings to macroeconomic or political variables transitions between exchange rate regimes are largely idiosyncratic and are neither consistently provoked ex ante by systematic imbalances nor typically justified ex post by subsequent changes in policy we conclude that there are no clear early warning signals of many speculative attacks and no easy solutions for policy makers barry eichengreen andrew k rose and charles wyplosz

futures markets cognitive ability and mispricing in experimental asset markets we study the effect of a futures market in which contracts maturing in the last period of the life of the asset can be traded our experiment has two treatments one in which a spot market operates on its own and a second treatment in which a spot and a futures market are active simultaneously futures markets lower spot prices but increase price volatility the futures markets themselves exhibit considerable overpricing individuals with higher cognitive reflection test crt scores achieve greater earnings and tend to sell in the overpriced futures market while traders with lower crt scores make purchases in the futures market greater average crt score among a group of traders is associated with better price discovery when no futures market is present but there is no such relationship in the presence of a futures market modified measures of crt which take into account different types of incorrect responses are introduced

exchange market pressure in korean an application of the girton roper monetary model note korea s exchange rates have been changing daily since its adoption of the flexible exchange rate system in february 1980 the purpose of this paper is to examine the simultaneous adjustment of both exchange rates and the balance of payments in korea the girton roper 1977 model of exchange market pressure is applied the model draws on a combination of the monetary approach to the balance of payments johnson 1972 and to exchange rate determination frenkel and johnson 1978 the main theoretical proposition of the girton roper hereafter g r model states that an excess domestic supply of money will cause some combination of currency depreciation and an outflow of foreign reserves the g r model of exchange market pressure was designed for the canadian managed float during the period from 1952 to 1962 connolly and silveira 1979 took the g r model and applied it to the brazilian experience for the period from 1955 to 1975 modeste 1981 used the same model to explain the monetary experience of argentina in the 1970s korean experience provides another good opportunity to test theoretical propositions of the g r version of the monetary approach to managed floating first of all korea fits the model of exchange market pressure because the country can be treated as a small open economy which takes foreign prices as given in addition changes in korea s exchange rates can be considered to be the product of market pressure since the korean won is linked to a multicurrency basket the exchange rate of the korean won is determined largely by the exchange rate formula which relies on both the special drawing right sdr basket and korea s own currency basket it is according to this formula that the bank of korea establishes daily the exchange rate in terms of the intervention currency the u s dollar l

a note on the exchange market pressure the korean experience 1980 1987 this paper applies the exchange market pressure emp model to korea under a managed floating exchange rate we show that the emp model is superior to one concentrating solely on foreign reserve or exchange rate changes given that the balance of paymnets in korea experienced a drastic turn to surplus during the estimated period we checked the stability of the coefficients the results show that the coefficients have remained stable