exchange rates and the fiscal theory of the price level abstract this paper addresses exchange rate determination under a nominal interest peg in a two country cash in advance model under two types of cash in advance constraints if both governments peg the nominal interest rate on domestic bonds there is a continuum of equilibria each consistent with different nominal exchange rates and real resource allocations the well known finding of equilibrium uniqueness under a nominal interest rate peg in a closed economy does not survive in a multi country multi currency setting

monetary policy in a dual currency environment we develop a small open economy general equilibrium model with sticky prices and partial dollarization a situation where both domestic and foreign currencies coexist we derive a tractable representation of the model in terms of domestic inflation and the output gap in which a trade off which depends on the degree of dollarization arises endogenously due to the presence of foreign interest rate shocks we use this framework to show analytically how higher degrees of dollarization induce larger volatilities of the output gap and inflation thus hampering a central bank s effectiveness to stabilize the economy our impulse response functions show that the transmission of such shocks has a positive negative effect on inflation and negative positive effect on the output gap when money aggregates and consumption are complements substitutes

ppp exchange rate rules macroeconomic in stability and learning in order to maintain competitiveness governments in developing economies seem to have pursued purchasing power parity ppp exchange rate rules by adjusting the nominal devaluation rate in response to real exchange rate deviations from an intermediate target this article shows that these rules are likely to induce macroeconomic instability as they generate sunspot driven fluctuations that are in fact learnable by agents in the expectational stability sense it finds that the existence of these learnable sunspots depends among others on open economy features including the degree of openness and the degree of exchange rate pass through to consumer s import prices

do central banks respond to exchange rate movements a structural investigation abstract we estimate a small scale structural general equilibrium model of a small open economy using bayesian methods our main focus is the conduct of monetary policy in australia canada new zealand and the uk we consider generic taylor type rules where the monetary authority reacts in response to output inflation and exchange rate movements we perform posterior odds tests to investigate the hypothesis whether central banks do target exchange rates the main result of this paper is that the central banks of australia and new zealand do not whereas the bank of canada and the bank of england do include the nominal exchange rate in its policy rule this result is robust for various specification of the policy rule we also find that terms of trade movements do not contribute significantly to domestic business cycles

hysteresis in a simple model of currency substitution abstract a cash in advance model in which the cost of buying goods with a foreign currency is decreasing in the economy s accumulated experience in transacting in the foreign currency is shown to display hysteresis in money velocity that is a temporary increase in expected inflation can cause a permanent increase in velocity in addition the model implies that the domestic currency does not have to dominate the foreign currency in rate of return to induce agents to stop using the foreign currency finally inflation rates that trigger currency substitution need not be associated with steady states in which the domestic currency disappears from circulation

endogenous currency substitution inflationary finance and welfare in some countries a foreign currency has replaced the domestic one to perform the functions of money this phenomenon is known as currency substitution this paper explores the relationship between currency substitution and inflationary finance in an overlapping generations model in which currency substitution is an endogenous equilibrium outcome the author describes when currency substitution may emerge and shows that it may be a purely expectational phenomenon he uses the model to discuss the welfare effects of inflation and the effects of policies that deal directly with currency substitution cs copyright 1994 by ohio state university press

worldwide macroeconomic stability and monetary policy rules we study the interaction of multiple large economies in dynamic stochastic general equilibrium each economy has a monetary policymaker that attempts to control the economy through the use of a linear nominal interest rate feedback rule we show how the determinacy of worldwide equilibrium depends on the joint behavior of policymakers worldwide we also show how indeterminacy exposes all economies to endogenous volatility even ones where monetary policy may be judged appropriate from a closed economy perspective we construct and discuss two quantitative cases in the 1970s worldwide equilibrium was characterized by a two dimensional indeterminacy despite u s adherence to a version of the taylor principle in the last 15 years worldwide equilibrium was still characterized by a one dimensional indeterminacy leaving all economies exposed to endogenous volatility our analysis provides a rationale for a type of international policy coordination and the gains to coordination in the sense of avoiding indeterminacy may be large

learning about monetary policy rules abstract we study macroeconomic systems with forward looking private sector agents and a monetary authority that is trying to control the economy through the use of a linear policy feedback rule we use stability under recursive learning a la evans and honkapohja learning and expectations in macroeconomics princeton university press princeton new jersey 2001 as a criterion for evaluating monetary policy rules in this context we find that considering learning can alter the evaluation of alternative policy rules

on the indeterminacy of equilibrium exchange rates in this paper we consider a particular international economic policy regime the laissez faire regime the distinguishing features of which are unrestricted portfolio choice and floating exchange rates and as we show this regime although favored by many economists is not economically feasible it does not have a determinate equilibrium that is an implication of an overlapping generations model more basically it is an implication of the notion that money is wanted only in order to accomplish trades

monetary policy determinacy and learnability in a two block world economy we study how determinacy and learnability of worldwide rational expectations equilibrium may be affected by monetary policy in a simple two country new keynesian framework under both fixed and flexible exchange rates we find that open economy considerations may alter conditions for determinacy and learnability relative to closed economy analyses and that new concerns can arise in the analysis of classic topics such as the desirability of exchange rate targeting and monetary policy cooperation

harnessing windfall revenues optimal policies for resource rich developing economies a windfall of natural resource revenue or foreign aid faces government with choices of how to manage public debt investment and the distribution of funds for consumption particularly if the windfall is both anticipated and temporary we show that the permanent income hypothesis prescription of an ever lasting increase in consumption financed by borrowing ahead of the windfall and then accumulating a sovereign wealth fund swf is not optimal for capital scarce developing economies such countries should accumulate public and private capital to accelerate their development and only if the windfall is large relative to initial foreign debt is it optimal to build a swf the optimal time profile of consumption is biased towards the near future as compared to the permanent income hypothesis outcomes depend on instruments available to government we study cases where the government can make lump sum transfers to consumers where such transfers are impossible so optimal policy involves cutting distortionary taxation in order to raise investment and wages and where ricardian consumers can borrow against future revenues in which case the policy response to possible over consumption is a high level of investment in infrastructure

bayesian inference methods for univariate and multivariate garch models a survey this survey reviews the existing literature on the most relevant bayesian inference methods for univariate and multivariate garch models the advantages and drawbacks of each procedure are outlined as well as the advantages of the bayesian approach versus classical procedures the paper makes emphasis on recent bayesian non parametric approaches for garch models that avoid imposing arbitrary parametric distributional assumptions these novel approaches implicitly assume infinite mixture of gaussian distributions on the standardized returns which have been shown to be more flexible and describe better the uncertainty about future volatilities finally the survey presents an illustration using real data to show the flexibility and usefulness of the non parametric approach

learning about monetary policy rules when the cost channel matters abstract we study how monetary policy may affect determinacy and expectational stability e stability of rational expectations equilibrium when the cost channel of monetary policy matters focusing on instrumental taylor type rules and optimal target rules we show that standard policies can induce indeterminacy and expectational instability when the cost channel is present a naive application of the traditional taylor principle could be misleading and expectations based reaction function under discretion does not always induce determinate and e stable equilibrium this result contrasts with the findings of bullard and mitra 2002 learning about monetary policy rules journal of monetary economics 49 1105 1129 and evans and honkapohja 2003 expectations and stability problem for optimal monetary policies review of economic studies 70 807 824 for the standard new keynesian model the ability of the central bank to commit to an optimal policy is an antidote to these problems

limited asset markets participation monetary policy and inverted aggregate demand logic abstract this paper incorporates limited asset markets participation in dynamic general equilibrium and develops a simple analytical framework for monetary policy analysis aggregate dynamics and stability properties of an otherwise standard business cycle model depend nonlinearly on the degree of asset market participation while moderate participation rates strengthen the role of monetary policy low enough participation causes an inversion of results dictated by conventional wisdom the slope of the is curve changes sign the taylor principle is inverted optimal welfare maximizing discretionary monetary policy requires a passive policy rule and the effects and propagation of shocks are changed however a targeting rule implementing optimal policy under commitment delivers equilibrium determinacy regardless of the degree of asset market participation our results may justify fed s behavior during the great inflation period

full bayesian inference for garch and egarch models a full bayesian analysis of garch and egarch models is proposed consisting of parameter estimation model selection and volatility prediction the bayesian paradigm is implemented via markov chain monte carlo methodologies we provide implementation details and illustrations using the general index of the athens stock exchange

a semiparametric bayesian approach to the analysis of financial time series with applications to value at risk estimation abstract garch models are commonly used for describing estimating and predicting the dynamics of financial returns here we relax the usual parametric distributional assumptions of garch models and develop a bayesian semiparametric approach based on modeling the innovations using the class of scale mixtures of gaussian distributions with a dirichlet process prior on the mixing distribution the proposed specification allows for greater flexibility in capturing the usual patterns observed in financial returns it is also shown how to undertake bayesian prediction of the value at risk var the performance of the proposed semiparametric method is illustrated using simulated and real data from the hang seng index hsi and bombay stock exchange index bse30

currency substitution risk premia and the taylor principle abstract this paper studies the equilibrium determinacy properties of a simple interest rate rule in a small open economy subject to currency substitution i e the use of a foreign currency for domestic transactions and risk premia on foreign borrowing it shows that if currencies are substitute in the provision of liquidity services the rule s response to inflation has to be sufficiently above unity for the equilibrium to be locally determinate this reinforced taylor principle requirement appears to be more binding in economies characterized by a larger elasticity of currency substitution more debt elastic country risk premia and intermediate degrees of dollarization in transactions

near unit root small open economies abstract the marginal utility of wealth in incomplete markets small open economy models follows a unit root process i study the nonlinear properties of devices often used to remove the unit root and i find that they generate different dynamics when matching emerging markets models with endogenous discount factors reinforce consumption response to shocks and increase the countercyclicality of the trade balance to output ratio conversely models with debt frictions ameliorate the responses of consumption and trade balance hence to generate dynamics similar to those in emerging economies the debt frictions need to be small inducing a near unit root behavior in their euler equations this difference across models is hidden when matching developed economies because of consumption smoothing and the mild countercyclicality of the trade balance

the gaussian mixture dynamic conditional correlation model parameter estimation value at risk calculation and portfolio selection a multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model with dynamic conditional correlations is proposed in which the individual conditional volatilities follow exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity models and the standardized innovations follow a mixture of gaussian distributions inference on the model parameters and prediction of future volatilities are addressed by both maximum likelihood and bayesian estimation methods estimation of the value at risk of a given portfolio and selection of optimal portfolios under the proposed specification are addressed the good performance of the proposed methodology is illustrated via monte carlo experiments and the analysis of the daily closing prices of the dow jones and nasdaq indexes

currency substitution new evidence from emerging economies abstract this paper provides new empirical evidence for currency substitution in different emerging market economies estimation results from a money in the utility function framework indicate that foreign currencies are strong substitutes for domestic currency in producing liquidity services

does trade openness matter for aggregate instability abstract this paper presents a cash in advance model of a small open economy and shows that whether an inflation targeting interest rate rule introduces aggregate instability depends in general on the degree of openness to international trade this result emerges regardless of whether prices are sticky or flexible in a closed economy as the monetary authority responds to movements in inflation the resulting changes in interest rates affect aggregate consumption through an intertemporal substitution effect and an inflation tax effect in a small open economy this policy also induces changes in the terms of trade which depending on the degree of openness can generate counteracting effects on consumption as a consequence the implications of interest rate rules on macroeconomic stability in an open economy differ from those in a closed economy