models for referendum data the structure of discrete choice models for contingent valuation abstract in 1979 bishop and heberlein introduced an appealing variant of the contingent valuation method which required only yes or no responses hanemann developed a utility theoretic interpretation of the yes no responses which has helped popularize the approach recently cameron has offered another interpretation also utility theoretic which she argues is more general than the hanemann random utility model this paper compares the deterministic models suggested by hanemann and cameron showing them to be dual to each other it shows that correct specification of either function must exclude endogenous variables such as quantity demanded it also demonstrates that using utility theoretic models allows one to compare travel cost models and contigent valuation models on the basis of their implied behavior not on the unobservable surplus or variation measure

statistical efficiency of double bounded dichotomous choice contingent valuation the statistical efficiency of conventional dichotomous choice contingent valuation surveys can be improved by asking each respondent a second dichotomous choice question which depends on the response to the first question if the first response is yes the second bid is some amount greater than the first bid while if the first response is no the second bid is some amount smaller this double bounded approach is shown to be asymptotically more efficient than the conventional singlebounded approach using data from a survey of californians regarding their willingness to pay for wetlands in the san joaquin valley we show that in a finite sample the gain in efficiency can be very substantial

arbitrary values good causes and premature verdicts abstract this paper offers an alternative interpretation of the conclusions kahneman and knetsch propose based on two contingent valuation cvm surveys the evaluation argues that while framing is important to cvm estimates the design implementation and empirical findings reported from these surveys do not support their judgments moreover with the exception of temporal embedding conventional economic descriptions of individual behavior can explain the response patterns that they suggest are at variance with standard value theory

estimating the public s value of implementing the co2 emissions trading scheme in korea abstract the korean government set out the carbon dioxide co2 emissions reduction target as 30 below business as usual by 2020 the co2 emissions trading scheme ets was initiated in january 2015 to meet this target we attempt to estimate the public s value of implementing the ets for co2 emissions reduction we apply the contingent valuation cv method using the willingness to pay wtp data obtained from a national cv survey of 1000 randomly selected households the survey was conducted via in person interviews value judgments required of the respondents were within their abilities the mean wtp to achieve the stated target of co2 emissions reduction using ets is estimated to be krw 1873 usd 1 66 per household per month which is statistically significant at the 1 level the aggregate national value amounts to krw 409 2 billion usd 363 4 million per year thus even though korea has no obligations to cut emissions under the kyoto protocol the public is willing to bear a financial burden to implement the ets if its cost is less than this value implementing the ets can be socially profitable the results of this study can serve as a basis for further policy discussions and decisions

the public s willingness to pay for securing a reliable natural gas supply in korea with the increasing importance of natural gas ng in the energy mix the search for a reliable liquefied ng lng supply has received great attention along with energy security in korea however the current level of lng supply reliability in korea is much lower than that in other industrialized countries in order to improve the reliability of the lng supply diverse policy measures are required which come at an additional cost paid by society this study aims to investigate the public s willingness to pay wtp for improving the reliability of the lng supply by increasing the lng storage rate from the current level 11 to 20 to this end the contingent valuation cv method is applied by using national survey data of 1000 households in particular this study employs a one and one half bound oohb dichotomous choice model combined with a spike model to address the responses from the cv survey with zero wtp the annual mean wtp is estimated to be krw 9641 usd 8 68 per household expanding the value to the national population provides a value of krw 169 43 billion usd 152 55 million the results indicate that people are willing to shoulder the burden of safeguarding a reliable supply of lng

semi nonparametric distribution free dichotomous choice contingent valuation abstract we apply a semi nonparametric distribution free estimator for binary discrete response data to the estimation of a dichotomous choice contingent valuation model using this estimator mean and median compensating and equivalent variation can be consistently estimated without making nontheoretically motivated assumptions on consumer preferences the approach is illustrated using a contingent valuation survey of willingness to pay for reduction of risk of premature death due to exposure to hazardous waste we find that a conventional parametric estimator and the proposed estimator give similar estimates of unconditional wtp but that conditional on explanatory variables the estimates are quite different

guest editor s introduction to the special issue the evolution of firm capabilities this special issue deals with the question of how it is that over time some firms manage to become successful using their capabilities while other firms do not the articles examine the ways in which firm capabilities emerge develop and change over time and the resulting effects on firm performance conceptual models and analyses based on empirical research deal with market entry and the evolution of firm capabilities adaptation and change in capabilities and heterogeneity of firm capabilities over time within these broad themes specific topics include the role of pre entry experience and initial conditions aspirations and learning dynamic capabilities technological change products and markets mergers and acquisitions and managerial cognition copyright 2000 john wiley sons ltd

estimation using contingent valuation data from a dichotomous choice with follow up questionnaire reply abstract our original article proposed that the two yes no willingness to pay wtp responses produced by this survey format should be viewed as a pair of jointly distributed correlated discrete random variables the comparison model the conventional approach to estimation using these types of data contained a programming error correction alters the results from the comparison model but our original claim that estimation by conventional methods can produce misleading inferences if ours is the appropriate specification still stands this is especially true if negative wtp is precluded when e wtp is calculated

sequence effects in the valuation of multiple environmental programs using the contingent valuation method in contingent valuation the willingness to pay for hypothetical programs may be affected by the order in which programs are presented to respondents with inclusive lists economic theory suggests that sequence effects should be expected however when policy makers allocate public budgets to several environmental programs they may be interested in assessing the value of the programs without the valuations being affected by the order in which the programs are presented using single bounded dichotomous choice contingent valuation questions we show that if respondents have the possibility to revise their willingness to pay answers sequence effects are mitigated

of birds and books more on hypothetical referenda recently cummings et al 1997 have reported a test of whether a hypothetical referendum using a majority rule is incentive compatible motivated in part by the national oceanic and atmospheric administration s noaa initially proposed rules for using contingent valuation in natural resource damage assessments these authors conclude that results from our experiments which involve a relatively simple good that is valued in a simple and controlled setting suggest that this hypothesis the incentive compatibility of a hypothetical referendum using majority rule be rejected p 619 this note questions the relevance of the authors results for the recommendations in the noaa rules and in the process identifies the general difficulties posed in measuring the amount of a public good 1 the noaa rules for contingent valuation were proposed by a distinguished panel of social scientists including two nobel laureates in economics kenneth arrow and robert solow arrow et al 1993 the guidelines were intended to enhance the reliability of contingent valuation estimates of willingness to pay for restoring injured natural resources as part of damage assessments required by the comprehensive environmental response compensation and

estimating willingness to pay for renewable energy in south korea using the contingent valuation method the importance of renewable energy as a response to climate change is universally acknowledged however its successful implementation requires public approval and cooperation this study aims to identify the level of renewable energy acceptance in korea by estimating korean consumers additional willingness to pay wtp using the contingent valuation cv method which is the most widely used to analyze consumer preferences the estimation results indicate that korean consumers are willing to pay an additional usd 3 21 per month for electricity generated with renewable energy however wtp in korea is low relative to other advanced nations indicating that these values could be influenced through policies aimed at improving knowledge and acceptance of renewable energy sources among korean consumers

inflationary bias of the federal reserve system a bureaucratic perspective abstract the federal reserve system does not receive a budget from congress but instead finances its operation from interest payments on its government security portfolio this peculiar financing arrangement provides the foundation for a bureaucratic model of federal reserve official behavior the empirical section tests the bureaucratic model by analysing the fed s expenditure record since 1947 and its policy actions during periods of constitutional revision

social demand for electricity from forest biomass in spain does payment periodicity affect the willingness to pay in this article we analyze social preferences for a partial substitution programme of electricity generated by conventional energy sources for energy generated from a local renewable energy source such as forest biomass this analysis sets arguments in favour of accelerating the introduction of this renewable technology in the spanish electricity system simultaneously two methodological goals concerning the contingent valuation method are discussed in the first one we analyze if there are statistical differences in the willingness to pay wtp when a single or a double bounded format is employed to ask the valuation question results show that wtp estimates from single and double bounded significantly differ in the second one we analyze the effect of the periodicity of the payment vehicle on the estimates of welfare change the timeframe specification of the payment vehicle has been scarcely studied and this fact constitutes the main contribution of this paper to the specialized literature results show that periodicity influences upon the probability to favour the proposed change the periodicity does not affect to the mean wtp obtained in the single bounded format but there are statistical differences in the double bounded format these results might be explained by the presence of yea saying and payment scale bias

consumer demand for green power and energy efficiency abstract this article examines reported willingness to pay for electric utility investments in renewable energy and energy efficiency resources using the results of deliberative polls conducted by electric utilities in texas 1 age education and salary tend to affect reported willingness to pay for utility investments in these resources intensive exposure to information about energy resource issues led to an increase in the number of respondents interested in paying a modest premium to support investments in both renewable energy resources and energy efficiency however average reported premiums actually declined following the polls as very high outlier responses moved to more reasonable values following the polls these results support the contention that informed dialogue about energy alternatives will result in broader interest in providing a modest level of support for these resources

asset stock accumulation and sustainability of competitive advantage given incomplete factor markets appropriate time paths of flow variables must be chosen to build required stocks of assets that is critical resources are accumulated rather than acquired in strategic factor markets barney barney j 1986 strategic factor markets expectations luck and business strategy management sci october 1231 1241 sustainability of a firm s asset position hinges on how easily assets can be substituted or imitated imitability is linked to the characteristics of the asset accumulation process time compression diseconomies asset mass efficiencies inter connectedness asset erosion and causal ambiguity

one and one half bound dichotomous choice contingent valuation to reduce the potential for response bias on the follow up bid in multiple bound discrete choice cvm questions while maintaining much of the efficiency gains of the multiple bound approach we introduce the one and one half bound oohb approach despite the fact that the oohb model uses less information than the double bound db approach efficiency gains in moving from single bound to oohb capture a large portion of the gain associated with moving from single bound to db in an analysis of survey data our oohb estimates demonstrated higher consistency with respect to the follow up data than the db estimates and were more efficient as well

interval estimates of non market resource values from referendum contingent valuation surveys contingent valuation methods cvm have attracted considerable attention in recent years as researchers have begun to resort to survey methods to elicit individual values for non market goods such as environmental resources or public goods cummings brookshire and schulze 1986 and mitchell and carson 1989 offer comprehensive assessments of these methods cvm survey questions come in a variety of forms one format which has proven to be popular is called the discrete choice or take it or leave it referendum or closedended question originally implemented in the literature by bishop and heberlein 1979 since respondents find it very difficult to identify precisely their true point value of access to some resource or public good open ended valuation questions can be unreliable or can discourage response in contrast most people are familiar with being confronted by a posted price for a good and with deciding whether or not they would buy at that price this is the strategy behind discrete choice cvm questions a different hypothetical price is offered to each respondent and by their yes no response to the question of whether they would be willing to pay this price the researcher gains information about their true underlying point value one persistent difficulty with the econometric techniques that are currently used most widely to analyze referendum contingent valuation data is the absence of confidence intervals for the ultimate value estimates early empirical applications approximate mean valuations using a truncated mean based on a logit model with the upper limit being the highest bid value in the sample unfortunately the variance of this estimated mean cannot easily be recovered from the numerical integration procedure commonly used to calculate the

anomalies in intertemporal choice evidence and an interpretation research on decision making under uncertainly has been strongly influenced by the documentation of numerous expected utility eu anomalies behaviors that violate the expected utility axioms the relative lack of progress on the closely related topic of intertemporal choice is partly due to the absence of an analogous set of discounted utility du anomalies we enumerate a set of du anomalies analogous to the eu anomalies and propose a model that accounts for the anomalies as well as other intertemporal choice phenomena incompatible with du we discuss implications for savings behavior estimation of discount rates and choice framing effects

valuation of natural resource improvements in the adirondacks for 20 years acid rain in the adirondack park has been a central issue in the debate about clean air regulation based on a contingent valuation survey of new york residents our study quantifies the total economic value of expected ecological improvements in the park from forthcoming policies our preferred estimates of the mean household willingness to pay range from 48 to 107 annually which imply total statewide benefits ranging from 336 million to 749 million annually alternative assumptions about ecological changes yield benefits up to 1 1 billion the instrument passes external scope sensitivity to bid and sample selection tests

public support for reducing us reliance on fossil fuels investigating household willingness to pay for energy research and development abstract in order to reduce future dependence on foreign oil and emissions of co2 how much would us households be willing to pay annually to support increased energy research and development r d activities designed to replace fossil fuels does it matter whether the r d includes nuclear energy options we explore these questions using data from a unique set of national telephone and internet surveys using a national advisory referendum format the contingent valuation method is applied to estimate annual household willingness to pay wtp for us household support of a national energy research and development fund erdf for investments in energy sources not reliant on fossil fuels while accounting for the level of un certainty in voting responses the wtp modeling includes a comparison of both classic maximum likelihood estimation mle and bayesian analysis evidence indicates that mle and bayesian analysis achieve similar statistical inference while the bayesian analysis provides a narrower confidence interval around estimated wtp

bureaucracy altruism and monetary policy it has recently been argued that the fiscal relationship between the federal reserve and the treasury by which the fed keeps a portion of its earnings imparts an inflationary bias to monetary policy because that relationship gives the fed an incentive to increase its earnings by increasing the monetary base this hypothesis is tested within the framework of a federal reserve objective function incorporating bureaucratic and social goals and no evidence is found to support it

learning curve spillovers and market performance this paper examines the effect of learning curve spillovers on market structure and performance we derive a simple characterization of the true marginal cost for a broad class of learning curves and use calculated examples to show that spillovers substantially undercut the barriers to entry erected by proprietary learning unlike the case of cost reducing research and development spillovers also tend to improve market performance the increased efficiency of the industrywide reduction process typically outweighs the decrease in firms incentives to reduce costs by expanding output

optimal bid selection for dichotomous choice contingent valuation surveys abstract this paper develops a model for optimal survey design for the dichotomous choice contingent valuation method that finds the bid amounts as well as the sample sizes corresponding to each bid the model uses an iterative procedure to select the survey design that minimizes the mean square error of the welfare measure a set of monte carlo simulations shows that the model produces significantly lower mean squared errors for the welfare estimate than the next best model produces survey design under alternative assumptions regarding the statistical distribution of the welfare measure is also addressed the model produced significantly different survey designs depending on whether the distribution was assumed to be symmetric or asymmetric

do contingent valuation estimates pass a scope test a meta analysis abstract this paper considers the scope test proposed to judge the internal consistency of contingent valuation estimates the test is shown to be quite sensitive to the maintained hypotheses required to derive fairly precise expectations for the properties of wtp functions and therefore a different approach may be needed in gauging the reliability of cv this paper describes an approach that relies on a weight of the evidence criterion and uses meta analysis to develop a systematic appraisal of what the economic values of changes in amenity resources are the approach is illustrated for the case of estimating people s willingness to pay for improving or maintaining visibility at the national parks

household willingness to pay for expanding fuel cell power generation in korea a view from co2 emissions reduction abstract the fuel cell fc is accepted as the state of the art instrument for reducing co2 emissions in the field of power generation in korea therefore the korean government has planned to expand fc power generation from 565 gwh in 2013 to 13 449 gwh by 2027 this article aims to assess the public value or acceptability of this expansion in terms of reducing co2 emissions to this end we derive the public s additional willingness to pay wtp for the expansion using a contingent valuation survey of 1000 korean households for the purpose of mitigating the response effect in eliciting their wtp and increasing statistical efficiency in analyzing the wtp data we employ a one and one half bounded dichotomous choice question format furthermore we use the spike model so as to model zero wtp responses the mean additional monthly wtp for the expansion is computed to be krw 1407 usd 1 37 per household expanding the value to the national population gives us krw 310 5 billion usd 304 4 million per year we can conclude that korean households are ready to shoulder some of the financial burden of expanding fc power generation to reduce co2 emissions

monetary policy theory and practice in respect of the theory of monetary policy i am reminded of the comment that jacob viner made many years ago at a meeting of the american economic association about alfred marshall s economics what is new is highly unlikely at this late date also to be true and significant 1 consequently i shall restrict my remarks on theory to trying to summarize what i regard as the present intellectual position

the learning curve market dominance and predatory pricing sufficient conditions for id and iid are given in the case of two step learning in which a firm reaches the bottom of its learning curve after just two sales however examples are also constructed for the two step learning case in which neither id nor iid holds it is also shown that in equilibrium iid implies that learning is privately disadvantageous although it is socially advantageous finally introducing avoidable fixed costs and possible exit into the model yields a new theory of predatory pricing based on the learning curve hypothesis

contingent valuation a practical alternative when prices aren t available a person may be willing to make an economic tradeoff to assure that a wilderness area or scenic resource is protected even if neither that person nor perhaps anyone else will actually visit this area this tradeoff is commonly labeled passive use value contingent valuation studies ask questions that help to reveal the monetary tradeoff each person would make concerning the value of goods or services such surveys are a practical alternative approach for eliciting the value of public goods including those with passive use considerations first i discuss the exxon valdez oil spill of march 1989 focusing on why it is important to measure monetary tradeoffs for goods where passive use considerations loom large although discussions of contingent valuation often focus on whether the method is sufficiently reliable for use in assessing natural resource damages in lawsuits it is important to remember that most estimates from contingent valuation studies are used in benefit cost assessments not natural resource damage assessments those working on benefit cost analysis have long recognized that goods and impacts that cannot be quantified are valued implicitly by giving them a limitless value when government regulations preclude certain activities or giving them a value of zero by leaving certain consequences out of the analysis contingent valuation offers a practical alternative for reducing the use of either of these extreme choices i put forward an affirmative case for contingent valuation and address a number of the concerns that have arisen

interdependency competition and the distribution of firm and industry profits coordination of interdependencies among firms productive activities has been advanced as a promising explanation for sustained heterogeneity in capabilities among firms in this paper we extend this line of research to determine the industry structures and patterns of expected firm profits for the case when difficulty optimizing interdependent activities does in fact generate and sustain capability heterogeneity among firms we combine a widely used agent based model where firms search to discover sets of activities that complement one another reducing overall costs or raising product quality with traditional economic models of competition among profit maximizing firms the agent based model produces a distribution of performance interpreted as variable cost or product quality among firms and the competition models determine resulting industry outcomes including patterns of entry exit and profits the integration of economic models of competition among firms with an agent based model of search for improvement by firms reveals a rich relationship between interdependencies in production functions and industry structure firm profits and industry average profitability

diagnosing insensitivity to scope in contingent valuation sensitivity to scope is considered a desirable property of contingent valuation studies and often treated as a necessary condition for validity we first provide an overview of scope insensitivity explanations put forth in the environmental valuation literature then we analyze data from a contingent valuation survey eliciting willingness to pay to prevent oil spills of four different magnitudes in arctic norway in the baseline analysis the scope inference is ambiguous there is only statistical difference in willingness to pay to avoid a very large versus small oil spill nok 1869 and nok 1086 respectively however further explorations show that several confounding factors suggested in the literature influence the scope inference the scope sensitivity improves when we control for subjective probabilities of amenity provision exclude respondents based on the debriefing questions take into consideration the sample sizes and impose diminishing marginal utility overall the analysis supports an emerging view in the contingent valuation literature suggesting that statistical scope insensitivity is not a sufficient reason for deeming a study invalid

the scope trials variation in sensitivity to scope and wtp with directionally bounded utility functions abstract sensitivity to scope refers to the property that willingness to pay for an environmental amenity is an increasing function of the scope of the amenity measurements of the degree of sensitivity to scope are commonly proposed as a test for the reliability of contingent valuation studies we evaluate the traditional scope test using neoclassical utility functions that are directionally bounded we provide a formal definition of sensitivity to scope and show that directionally bounded utility functions can produce arbitrarily small degrees of sensitivity to scope we conclude that a failure to satisfy existing scope tests should not be used as a prima facie basis for rejecting contingent valuation studies this does not imply that small degrees of sensitivity to scope should always be viewed as acceptable rather the results of scope tests should be considered more carefully with attention given to the substitutability of market and non market goods

using contingent valuation to explore willingness to pay for renewable energy a comparison of collective and voluntary payment vehicles abstract this study uses a split sample dichotomous choice contingent valuation survey of 1574 u s residents to explore willingness to pay wtp for renewable energy under collective and voluntary payment vehicles and under government and private provision of the good we also evaluate the impact of participation expectations on stated wtp we find some evidence that when confronted with a collective payment mechanism respondents state a somewhat higher wtp than when voluntary payment mechanisms are used similarly private provision of the good elicits a somewhat higher wtp than does government provision we also find that contingent valuation responses are strongly correlated with expectations for the wtp of others our results shed light on strategic response behavior and the incentive compatibility of different cv designs and offer practical insight into u s household preferences for how to support renewable energy

plausible responsiveness to scope in contingent valuation plausible responsiveness to scope is a question of economic significance in addition to statistical significance of the scope test in contingent valuation we briefly review the history of the scope test in order to place the current issue in the context of the bp deepwater horizon oil spill as a result of the review we gain insights into how the issue of scope adequacy arose twenty years after it was first mentioned by the noaa panel on contingent valuation following the exxon valdez oil spill we then provide a review of desvousges mathews and train 2012 who promote the adding up test to identify inadequate responsiveness to scope adequacy the adding up test is a test of the construct validity of the contingent valuation method but is flawed as a measure of economic significance we propose scope elasticity of willingness to pay as a measure of economic significance a simulation suggests a likely range of elasticity estimates given linear and quadratic functional forms for the willingness to pay function in order to illustrate the ease of implementation of scope elasticity within the context of the standard scope test we calculate scope elasticity with willingness to pay estimates from several studies describe two studies that directly estimate scope elasticity and estimate scope elasticity with primary data from two studies all of these empirical estimates of scope elasticity fall within the range of scope elasticity suggested by the simulation scope elasticity provides a practical way forward relative to the adding up test on the issue of economic significance of scope effects

valuing non marketed goods the case of elk permit lotteries abstract permit allocation methods offer a way of estimating the value of non marketed elk hunting applicants compete for elk hunting permits in colorado by acquiring preference points that have a monetary cost and by distributing themselves among hunts until their marginal values are equalized we infer the marginal value of permits from the opportunity costs incurred to acquire these permits and use a hedonic regression analysis to estimate the impact of various hunt characteristics on permit value

universal health insurance in the clinton plan coverage as a tax financed public good the financing arrangements embodied in the clinton health reform plan involve some important differences in the way in which public goods are usually financed the subsidies to small low wage firms mandated to provide benefits distort markets in both labor and products and offer incentives for the creation of small firms in addition the financing scheme implicitly envisions a head tax on families at modest income levels but offers a possible rationale for it nevertheless the main reason for many of the financing features appears to be an attempt to hold down the apparent budgetary cost of universal coverage

fat tails and truncated bids in contingent valuation an application to an endangered shorebird species a yes response function in a contingent valuation study is said to have fat tails if it has a high and slowly declining yes response rate at high bid levels truncated bids refer to the practice of dropping high bid offers before a yes response rate of near zero is reached this is a common practice in contingent valuation we explore the extent and implications of fat tails and truncated bids in a study of an endangered shorebird species we find among other things that mean willingness to pay is quite sensitive to the highest bid offered so much so that the choice of highest bid nearly dictates outcomes

optimal fiscal and monetary policy in an economy without capital abstract this paper is concerned with the structure and time consistency of optimal fiscal and monetary policy in an economy without capital in a dynamic context optimal taxation means distributing tax distortions over time in a welfare maximizing way for a barter economy our main finding is that with debt commitments of sufficiently rich maturity structure an optimal policy if one exists is time consistent in a monetary economy the idea of optimal taxation must be broadened to include an inflation tax and we find that time consistency does not carry over an optimal inflation tax requires commitment by rules in a sense that has no counterpart in the dynamic theory of ordinary excise taxes the reason time consistency fails in a monetary economy is that nominal assets should from a welfare maximizing point of view always be taxed away via an immediate inflation in a kind of capital levy this emerges as a new possibility when money is introduced into an economy without capital

flexible functional form estimation of willingness to pay using dichotomous choice data abstract this paper introduces fully flexible semi nonparametric methods for calculating willingness to pay wtp bounded between zero and the respondent s income for dichotomous choice contingent valuation a method to estimate median wtp using fully flexible functional forms is also presented finally the numerical illustration demonstrates the importance of considering jensen s inequality in calculating wtp with nonlinear models

the contingent valuation debate why economists should care t he contingent valuation method involves the use of sample surveys questionnaires to elicit the willingness of respondents to pay for generally hypothetical projects or programs the name of the method refers to the fact that the values revealed by respondents are contingent upon the constructed or simulated market presented in the survey a spirited and occasionally mean spirited battle over such methods is currently being waged involving competing factions within the federal government economists and lawyers representing business and environmental groups and interested academics as well at issue is a seemingly quite specific question should environmental regulations currently under development at both the department of the interior and the department of commerce sanction the use of the contingent valuation method in estimating the damage done by spills of oil chemicals or other substances covered by federal law more generally the debate raises broad questions about what economists have to say about the values that individuals place on public or private goods the two papers that follow this one make cases for and against the use of the contingent valuation method my aim here is to provide an overview of the technique and the debate surrounding it i also want to suggest why this debate should matter to economists both professionally and in their roles as citizens and consumers

inflationary finance under discrepion and rules inflationary finance involves first the tax on cash balances from expected inflation and second a capital levy from unexpected inflation from the standpoint of minimizing distortions these capital levies are attractive ex post to the policymaker in a full equilibrium two conditions hold 1 the monetary authority optimizes subject to people s expectations mechanisms and 2 people form expectations rationally given their knowledge of the policymaker s objectives the outcomes under discretionary policy are contrasted with those generated under rules in a purely discretionary regime the monetary authority can make no meaningful commitments about the future behavior of money and prices under an enforced rule it becomes possible to make some guarantees hence the links between monetary actions and inflationary expectations can be internalized there is a distinction between fully contingent rules and rules of simple form a simple rule allows the internalization of some connections between policy act ion and inflationary expectations but discretion permits some desirable flexibility of monetary growth this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

part whole bias in contingent valuation will scope effects be detected with inexpensive survey methods the purpose of this paper is to test for scope effects with the contingent valuation method we use data from a telephone survey focusing on water quality improvements in the albemarle and pamlico sounds in north carolina we find that the willingness to pay estimates are sensitive to the scope of the policy these results suggest that the use of inexpensive survey methods may not be the cause of the failure to detect scope effects in some recent contingent valuation studies

the bond price support program as a change in policy regimes evidence from the term structure of interest rates recently mankiw miron and weil 1987 argued that a change in policy regimes generally affects the public s expectations of future interest rates to illustrate this influence they compare the operation of the gold standard with the post gold standard regime in the united states they find that nominal short term interest rates were mean reverting before 1914 but became nonstationary after the creation of the federal reserve system we extend mankiw miron and weil s analysis by noting that the period from 1914 to the present cannot be characterized as one uninterrupted episode of policy discretion the united states temporarily abandoned discretion for a rule in the 1940s the fed and treasury agreed in april 1942 that the fed would adjust federal reserve credit in a manner that would produce relatively low market rates on longterm securities in particular the fed committed itself to support twenty year government bond prices at a level consistent with a 2 5 percent interest rate ceiling we investigate the possibility that the bond price support program of the 1940s conditioned the behavior of short term interest rates in a predictable way according to the expectation theory of the term structure a binding long term interest rate ceiling implies that an increase in the current short rate must cause the sum of the innovation and the change in future expected rates to be zero otherwise the long rate rises above the ceiling and the public perceives a violation of the bond rate commitment placing a binding ceiling on long term interest rates tends to make short term interest rates mean reverting

the public s value for developing ocean energy technology in the republic of korea a contingent valuation study abstract ocean energy is a type of renewable energies and is considered as having a potential power of providing a substantial amount of energy although some forms of ocean energy are developed there is a need for further technological advances to better utilize ocean energy government should take observable actions to compensate for the costs of developing the technology this paper attempts to apply a contingent valuation cv method to obtaining at least a preliminary evaluation of the benefits that ensue from the development of the technology that commercializes ocean energy in the republic of korea overall the cv survey was successfully carried out to elicit the willingness to pay wtp for ocean energy the wtp was statistically significantly estimated from one and one half bounded spike model and the monthly mean wtp estimates was krw 1003 usd 0 9 per household the estimates of the annual benefits to relevant residents amounted to krw 206 4 billion usd 183 8 million

interdependency competition and industry dynamics asystematic understanding of industry dynamics is critical to strategy research because individual firm performance dynamics both reflect and affect change at the industry level descriptive research on industry dynamics has identified a dominant pattern where prices fall output rises and the number of firms rises and then falls over time several models have been advanced to explain these patterns with a particular focus on explaining why a shakeout in the number of firms occurs in the most prominent models shakeout is generated by rising realized heterogeneity among firms that either is assumed to be unrecognized but determined ex ante or is generated by stochastic innovation outcomes coupled with convex adjustment costs and scale advantages in innovation and learning in this paper we develop an alternative model where heterogeneity develops among firms over time leading to a shakeout because firms must make choices about highly interdependent productive activities where the ideal combinations cannot be easily deduced or imitated by combining two established models a cournot model of competition with an nk model of interdependency in production activities we are able to advance an alternative explanation for the observed patterns of industry behavior including shakeout we show that variation in the potential for interdependency in activities among industries is able to explain varying levels of shakeout as well as differing patterns of entry and exit among industries notably the model generates several empirical predictions not apparent in past research and several that directly conflict with the results of prominent alternative models of industry dynamics specifically we show that when the potential for interdependency within an industry is low entry slows down and incumbent survival is all but assured whereas in industries where the potential for interdependencies is high shakeouts are severe and the rates of entry and exit remain high over longer time periods with decreasing survival rates for incumbents

the standard error of regressions statistical significance as used in economics has weak theoretical justification in particular it merges statistical and substantive significance the 182 papers using regression analysis in the american economic review in the 1980s were tested against 19 criteria for the accepted use of statistical significance most some three quarters of the papers did poorly likewise textbooks in econometrics do not distinguish statistical and economic significance statistical significance should not be the focus of empirical economics

starting point bias in dichotomous choice valuation with follow up questioning abstract follow up questions are frequently used to improve the efficiency of dichotomous choice contingent valuation questionnaires however a number of authors e g 12 16 have noted a significant difference between the wtp distributions implied by initial and follow up question responses this paper investigates starting point bias as one explanation for the phenomenon we develop a model of starting point bias in the context of dichotomous choice questioning with follow up using a monte carlo simulation to illustrate the potential bias imparted to wtp estimates an application is provided based on data from a cv study in northcentral iowa

a general model of starting point bias in double bounded dichotomous contingent valuation surveys abstract this paper develops a general model that addresses the starting point bias in the dichotomous choice evaluation data by incorporating both the anchoring effect and yea saying bias the model is applied to a contingent valuation study that evaluated the health benefits of air quality improvement in three major metropolitan areas in taiwan the empirical evidence shows a strong anchoring effect but an insignificant yea saying bias the results show a serious understated willingness to pay if the biases in anchoring and yea saying are not controlled

designing transactions without framing effects in iterative question formats abstract several studies document that iterative question formats used in contingent valuation studies produce anomalies in respondent behavior that appear to threaten the validity of welfare estimates by decomposing iterative question formats into their ascending and descending sequences we show that these anomalies occur only in ascending sequences we describe the conditions under which comparable patterns of behavior are likely to be found in other iterative question formats that begin with a discrete willingness to pay question we then develop a unified explanation of these anomalies using our model of framing based on prospect theory we provide the first head to head test of rival explanations of these behavioral patterns by developing refutable hypotheses for the strategic behavior yea saying anchoring and cost expectations models finally based on our own statistically robust model we show how these anomalies can be eliminated without loss of the statistical efficiency of most iterative question formats

spike models in contingent valuation spike models allow for a nonzero probability of zero willingness to pay in referendum style contingent valuation experiments they include many of the often used models as special cases and allow various analyses that are not possible in standard applications in this paper the economic rationale for the spike models and their estimation techniques are discussed and empirical illustrations are provided one study suggests that mean willingness to pay is zero and both studies strongly suggest that median wtp is zero these results have some bearing on the continuing debate of the incentive properties of hypothetical surveys and the construction of scenarios in contingent valuation experiments

an investigation of part whole biases in contingent valuation studies abstract part whole bias is a possible explanation for nonuse contingent valuation estimates that are insensitive to marginal changes in environmental commodities our empirical analyses reveal no statistically significant differences in willingness to pay of independent samples of nonusers to prevent 2000 20 000 or 200 000 migratory waterfowl deaths in the central flyway all numbers less than 2 of the waterfowl population five alternative propositions for explaining this empirical findings do not provide a completely satisfactory explanation more research is necessary to investigate appropriate commodity metrics sample sizes for small changes in environmental commodities and consider how respondents evaluate small changes in environmental commodities

sequencing and nesting in contingent valuation surveys abstract the term embedding is ill defined and has been applied to distinct phenomena some predicted by economic theory and others not this paper lays out a theoretical framework for looking at these phenomena and provides a set of well defined terms included is a discussion of survey design problems which may induce spurious evidence in favor of the hypothesis that respondents are insensitive to the scope of the good being valued an empirical example of the component sensitivity is provided this test rejects the hypothesis that respondents are insensitive to the scope of the good being valued

protest response and willingness to pay for culturally significant urban trees implications for contingent valuation method the contingent valuation method cvm could assist green space planning management and appreciation by assigning a monetary value to urban trees however the use of cvm is limited by its inherent methodological weaknesses a critical concern is the existence of a large proportion of survey respondents providing zero willingness to pay wtp and that these responses are not amenable to economic theory known as protest responses censoring protest responses from further treatment is a common practice which warrants reconsideration in light of our cvm survey results the survey involved 800 residents requested to state their wtp for preserving the culturally significant stonewall trees in urban hong kong about 28 of respondents returned a zero wtp for all respondents the strength of protest beliefs was assessed and the relationship between protest beliefs and wtp were examined our analysis produced contradictory results some protest items varied negatively with wtp as expected but other items increased with it respondents stated positive wtp harbored latent protest beliefs which are related to non economic preference the findings stand at odds with the assumptions underlying the censoring treatment and raise questions about the validity of wtp estimates these methodological implications should be taken into account in using cvm

adequate responsiveness to scope in contingent valuation the standard test for scope sensitivity in contingent valuation studies determines whether the response to changes in scope is statistically significant it does not address whether the magnitude of response is appropriate given the specified changes in scope we examine contingent valuation studies that implemented scope tests to determine what they imply about the adequacy of response to scope we find that in the vast majority of studies the magnitude of response cannot be assessed only three studies permit such an assessment samples and hollyer 1990 diamond et al 1993 and chapman et al 2009 the first two papers find that responses to their surveys did not vary adequately with scope the third study passed the standard scope test but we show that the magnitude of response in this study is inadequate by straightforward methods of assessment and cannot be explained by diminishing marginal utility or substitution more research is needed on this issue including wider application of adding up tests on incremental parts as well as the development of other methods that permit an assessment of the magnitude of response or other tests of rationality

economic valuation of the environment how citizens make sense of contingent valuation questions this study adopts a qualitative approach in order to investigate how people make sense of contingent valuation cv questions of a global environmental amenity the objective is not only to capture people s motivations and considerations of willingness to pay wtp but also to determine if they adequately comprehend an economic valuation of such public goods the findings indicate that a large proportion of respondents do not interpret the valuation task as intended however this lack of understanding is not always expressed unless probed in relation to the elicitation question and some people have the tendency to provide monetary estimates anyway whatever meaning they attach to these

an adding up test on contingent valuations of river and lake quality for a contingent valuation cv study of a bundle of water quality improvements this paper tests whether the sum of the estimated willingness to pay wtp for each individual part of the package evaluated incrementally equals the estimated wtp for the entire bundle as implied by standard utility theory this is the first application of the adding up test using incremental parts and carson and groves s 2007 procedures to induce truthful respondents answers the test is failed which implies that either the cv method did not elicit truthful answers or that respondents true preferences are inconsistent with standard utility theory

the case for diminishing marginal existence values abstract this study addresses the debate over sensitivity of existence values measured by contingent valuation to scope tests we reconcile much of the debate within one theoretical model if marginal wtp for existence goods is diminishing then a study that tested for sensitivity to scope over a range for which marginal wtp is high would be more likely to detect sensitivity to scope than a study that focused on a range for which marginal wtp is much lower an empirical model demonstrates this point for existence value of remote wilderness parks these results have significant implications for future contingent valuation work

dynamic capabilities what are they this paper focuses on dynamic capabilities and more generally the resource based view of the firm we argue that dynamic capabilities are a set of specific and identifiable processes such as product development strategic decision making and alliancing they are neither vague nor tautological although dynamic capabilities are idiosyncratic in their details and path dependent in their emergence they have significant commonalities across firms popularly termed best practice this suggests that they are more homogeneous fungible equifinal and substitutable than is usually assumed in moderately dynamic markets dynamic capabilities resemble the traditional conception of routines they are detailed analytic stable processes with predictable outcomes in contrast in high velocity markets they are simple highly experiential and fragile processes with unpredictable outcomes finally well known learning mechanisms guide the evolution of dynamic capabilities in moderately dynamic markets the evolutionary emphasis is on variation in high velocity markets it is on selection at the level of rbv we conclude that traditional rbv misidentifies the locus of long term competitive advantage in dynamic markets overemphasizes the strategic logic of leverage and reaches a boundary condition in high velocity markets copyright 2000 john wiley sons ltd

contingent valuation of community forestry programs in ethiopia controlling for preference anomalies in double bounded cvm this study examines the welfare effects of community plantations in ethiopia via contingent valuation both single bounded and double bounded survey methods were considered and with respect to double bounded methods the potential for anomalous response behaviour was also taken into account the results generally confirm that there are statistically significant welfare benefits to be derived from community forestry however the range of the estimated benefits is large after controlling for anomalous response behaviour the range of estimated benefits narrows and our preferred estimates place the welfare gain between ethiopian birr etb 20 14 and 30 41 per household which is much lower than the estimated benefits without controlling for anomalous preference responses

a capability based view of competitive heterogeneity the question of how firms differ is paramount to strategy scholars this question has motivated empirical research on the factors influencing performance differences among close competitors it also has motivated work on factors that increase or decrease the mean performance of firms in an industry theories about resources and capabilities tend to dominate discussions of heterogeneity in performance and superior performance yet the strategy field lacks a cumulative body of empirical work showing how firms differ this article derives conclusions and questions from empirical work on capabilities we then discuss work that complements but lies beyond the boundaries of traditional capabilities research we conclude by suggesting approaches to and areas of future work

decoy effects in choice experiments and contingent valuation asymmetric dominance while a dominated choice involves a situation in which one option clearly dominates another on all relevant dimensions an asymmetrically dominated choice typically arises where at least two options do not dominate each other and one but not both of those options does dominate a third option we demonstrate that the introduction of such an asymmetrically dominated option can have a significant impact upon choices between non dominated options within the same choice set for non market goods furthermore we show that this effect can then translate into significant impacts upon subsequent valuations for those non dominated options

efficient estimation methods for closed ended contingent valuation surveys closed ended contingent valuation surveys can be very useful in the evaluation of nonmarket resources respondents merely state whether they would accept or reject a hypothetical threshold amount either as payment for giving up access to the resource or as a fee for its use the authors develop a maximum likelihood procedure which exploits the variation in the threshold values to allow direct and separate point estimates of regression like slope coefficients and error standard deviations without truncation bias their illustration uses data from a survey of recreational fisherman to examine factors which influence individuals willingness to pay copyright 1987 by mit press

estimating the demand curve for sustainable use of pesticides from contingent valuation data abstract stated preference valuation techniques are often used to assess consumers willingness to pay for food items produced in farming systems that adopt a sustainable use of pesticides sup we propose an innovative valuation methodology in which dichotomous choice contingent valuation is used to estimate the demand curve price quantity relationship for such food items where price means price premium for the sup output quantity is the probability of choosing sup and the conventional food product is kept available in the market at the current market price this methodology can be used to evaluate market differentiation as a policy option to promote the sup the methodology is tested with data from a sample of urban consumers of fruits and vegetables in portugal the estimated demand curve is used to define the price level maximizing the total premium revenue for the sup sector as a whole this optimal level of the price premium is 77 55 or 163 of the value of the monthly basket of fruits and vegetables at current prices adopting the optimal price premium will decrease the number of consumers of sup food by 54 the reduction is even higher for low income consumers 80 leaving them more exposed to the risks of pesticide use

contingent valuation and social choice the contingent valuation method for estimating the existence value of natural resources is examined for psychophysical robustness statistical reliability and economic sensibility extensions of standard models for willingness to pay and suitable econometric techniques for analyzing these models are developed the analysis is applied to a series of experiments on the value of preserving wilderness areas in the western united states the results call into question the reliability of the cv method for estimating existence values

scope effects in contingent valuation does the assumed statistical distribution of wtp matter abstract economic theory assumes that willingness to pay wtp increases with the quantity of the consumed good this implies that there should be a scope effect in contingent valuation studies however in previous issues of ecological economics several authors criticized the contingent valuation cv method for the absence of such effect or its inadequacy in this paper we contribute to this ongoing debate by proposing to systematically apply several wtp statistical distribution assumptions to test for scope effects and check its plausibility following whitehead s 2016 recent recommendations we perform this approach using data from a swiss case study assessing the wtp for an increased surface of forest reserves we find that both mean wtp and scope effects are sensitive to the statistical distribution assumption regarding plausibility scope elasticities provide mixed result and also depend on the assumed statistical distribution of wtp for small sample size cv studies a non parametric analysis a spike model or an open ended format can thus be better suited to reveal scope effects than the classical parametric dichotomous choice analysis we thus recommend to systematically apply several statistical distribution assumptions of wtp to test for scope effects and their plausibility

keeping up appearances motivations for socially desirable responding in contingent valuation interviews abstract the tendency to give socially desirable rather than true statements of willingness to pay wtp is an often reported form of bias in contingent valuation surveys while previous research on this bias has exclusively focused on the detection of mode effects the present study directly assesses a respondent s motivation to state wtp in a socially desirable manner this study tests the effect of three theoretical motivations for socially desirable responding on wtp responses a general need for social approval a perceived social norm calling for a high contribution and perceived lack of anonymity of the interview situation questions for the empirical assessment of these factors are developed results of a valuation study in southwest china show differing and independent impacts of these factors while there is no effect of perceived anonymity need for social approval biases wtp responses upwards but does not influence the general decision to state a positive wtp it also turns out that rather the fear of losing social status than the striving for higher social approval is the main driver of this bias respondents perceiving a social norm for high wtp are more likely to state a positive wtp but the specific amount is not affected

a duopoly theory of government money production the 1930s and 1940s abstract during the 1930s and 1940s the treasury and fed possessed significant monetary powers to explain the interaction of these agencies during this period i develop a theory of money production which assumes each party is interested in increasing the seigniorage associated with their production the theory implies that the two agencies will engage in specific forms of cooperation an examination of monetary policy procedures in the 1930s and 1940s indicates that the cooperation view of the fed and treasury relationship has more explanatory power than traditional views

impact of growth opportunities and competition on firm level capability development trade offs how should managers prioritize among production product development branding internationalization and other capabilities and resources this question is central to the resource based view and the answer depends not only on the direct returns on investment in each capability but also on the trade offs in using those returns for future growth or survival in a competitive market through simulation experiments this study examines firm level capability development trade offs in the context of a firm s market level competition and growth it is found that investing in operational capabilities which enhance short term performance gains priority over investing in long term dynamic capabilities when the operational capability investment strengthens the reinforcing loop between performance investment flow and capability development such operational capability investment provides growth opportunities and competitive advantage moreover in strategic competition firms anticipating rivals focus on short term growth need to further ignore dynamic long term capability building in order to survive testable propositions are offered as to how trade offs between short term and long term investments depend on different firm and industry characteristics the results may explain why short term focused firm behavior persists in firms even in the absence of discounting short term managerial incentives decision biases or learning failures

some notes on trichotomous choice discrete valuation for some respondents the bid offered by the dichotomous choice format used in the discrete choice technique can in fact be the true optimum in this case the correct answer is neither yes or no but indifferent we shall show results from a trichotomous choice format and analyse whether it produces welfare measures with narrower confidence intervals than the dichotomous technique another well known problem in contingent valuation cv studies is that the volume of the good to be purchased from hypothetical markets is not in many cases defined in precise terms we show how the trichotomous choice technique can be used to test for possible vagueness in the volume of the project to be valued

train travel passengers willingness to pay to offset their co2 emissions in korea abstract due to the upsurge in concerns regarding climate change the carbon market has been growing more rapidly than ever recently a more innovative and experimental voluntary carbon market has been playing a supplementary role to the compliance market which is lacking in flexibility and diversity and has been accounting for an increasingly larger portion of the carbon market among the efforts to accumulate data and develop appropriate policies for the voluntary carbon market it is necessary to analyze the benefits of carbon offsets for ghg emissions from railways this study attempts to apply contingent valuation cv to measure the public s willingness to pay wtp for voluntary carbon offsets vcos from railway travel in korea furthermore in order to enhance the statistical efficiency of the wtp estimation and reduce the response effect in the context of wtp elicitation this study employs a one and one half bound dichotomous choice format the estimate of the mean wtp for a vco program for a specific travel distance is estimated to be krw 1 345 usd 1 24 per person this quantitative information can be utilized to develop policies related to mitigating climate change

willingness to pay for green electricity in korea a contingent valuation study abstract green electricity is energy that is generated from renewable energy sources such as solar power wind power small scale hydroelectric power tidal power and biomass power these sources mostly do not produce pollutants and are considered environmentally friendly however considering the current state of technology they are more costly government should take visible actions to compensate for the increased production costs this paper attempts to apply a contingent valuation cv method to obtain at least a preliminary evaluation of the benefits that ensue from the introduction of the policy that raises the percentage of green electricity consumption from 0 2 of the total electricity supply to 7 by 2011 overall the cv survey was successful in eliciting the willingness to pay wtp for green electricity considering that the cv method operated within respondents abilities to answer and the wtp estimates were statistically significant the monthly mean wtp estimates from parametric and non parametric methods were krw 1681 usd 1 8 and krw 2072 usd 2 2 respectively the estimates of the annual benefits to relevant residents amounted to krw 150 5 billion usd 157 5 million and krw 185 6 billion usd 194 2 million respectively

testing the internal consistency of contingent valuation surveys abstract for an internal consistency check one can examine wtp responses to different surveys holding an environmental problem constant concave preferences imply wtpconcavein the success of a remedy the same preferences imply wtpconvexin the magnitude of an environmental problem assuming a successful remedy having opposite signed curvature of these two wtp patterns is general not requiring concave preferences for an adding up test an environmental commodity can be divided then wtp for one part plus wtp for the second part conditional on already having the first part equals wtp for the whole adjusted by an income effect

bias in discrete response contingent valuation abstract the empirical literature on discrete response contingent valuation has found that seemingly innocuous changes in the statistical models estimated result in significantly different point estimates of willingness to pay this paper hypothesizes and tests several potential explanations for these results first it investigates and compares the biases inherent in single bounded and double bounded maximum likelihood estimation procedures and examines how they react to various bid designs and sample sizes then it examines the presence and identification of outliers in binary choice data and how these outliers influence estimation finally it presents an alternative approach to addressing the issue of outliers which explicitly acknowledges the possibility of upwardly biased response probabilities

expected willingness to pay for wind energy in atlantic canada abstract we investigate the demand side of wind energy in three provinces in atlantic canada including new brunswick nova scotia and prince edward island empirical questions addressed include i what are the determinants of the probability of paying a non zero premium for electricity generated using wind technology ii given participation what drives how much more households are willing to pay a month and what is the monthly premium or expected willingness to pay wtp and iii is there heterogeneity in the expected wtp the study design follows the contingent valuation framework and the survey questionnaire follows a payment scale format reducing the starting point bias and reduces the incidence of item non response the data is from a stratified random sample we employ two stage models cragg s hurdle and the two part econometric models in the analysis scope and 0 wtp effects are explicitly explored we find that the overall probability of participation is 0 73 university education income residential property ownership concerns about the presence of wind turbines in neighborhoods and externality affect the likelihood of participation households are willing to pay 14 more per month in energy bill for wind power there is evidence of scope sensitivity the results provide insights on what proportion of the population will participate and how much more they are willing to pay for wind energy

contingent valuation from dubious to hopeless abstract approximately 20 years ago peter diamond and i wrote an article for this journal analyzing contingent valuation methods at that time peter s view was that contingent valuation was hopele

a positive model of reserve requirements and interest on reserves a clearinghouse interpretation of the federal reserve system this paper develops a positive model of reserve requirements and interest on reserves based on the observation that congress exempted the fed from a legal restriction that had prevented private clearinghouses from issuing their own currency eliminating the restriction provided the fed with a source of revenue that could be used to finance general government outlays and to pay implicit interest on reserves the model implies that the government s financing requirements help explain reserve requirement movements and that interest rates on reserves vary with market loan rates cointegration error correction and granger causality tests provide supporting evidence