bond indenture provisions and the risk of corporate debt abstract this paper examines the effect of alternative bond indenture provisions on the allocation of risk among the firm s claimants the approach taken here differs from that of earlier studies in that risk allocation is examined while the firm s leverage in market value terms is held constant in this context four indenture provisions are examined 1 the time to maturity 2 the promised payment schedule 3 financing restrictions and 4 priority rules it is concluded that risk is transferred from stockholders to bondholders as the time to maturity and promised payment increase appropriately furthermore substitution of longer term debt for an equal amount of shorter term debt also increases the risk to bondholders while decreasing the risk to stockholders the analysis shows that a coupon bond can be represented by a unique discount bond with the same risk and value this permits the characterization of the effective maturity of a risky debt issue a concept analogous to the stochastic duration of a default free coupon bond these results are shown to be independent of the means used to finance the debt issue finally it is concluded that the relative risk associated with different bonds issued by the same firm cannot be determined by the structure of priority rules alone it is also necessary to consider the timing of the promised payments compared to that of the other debt issues in the firm s capital structure

does the bond market predict bankruptcy settlements this study shows the extent to which deviations from the absolute priority rule increase or decrease the bankruptcy emergence payoff to traded i e usually junior claimants bondholders the data indicate that on average bondholders benefit albeit slightly from absolute priority rule apr violations this paper also examines the degree to which the bond market in the bankruptcy filing month anticipates departures from the apr and other influences on the payoff to bondholders in other words we investigate the informational efficiency of the market for bankrupt bonds overall despite the complex and lengthy nature of bankruptcy proceedings the results support efficiency the finance literature has traditionally assumed that when a firm enters bankruptcy the creditors become the owners and the value of the firm is distributed according to the absolute priority rule apr the apr states that senior creditors should be fully compensated before junior creditors receive any portion of the bankrupt firm s value and junior creditors should receive full payment before shareholders receive any compensation in practice formal bankruptcy proceedings are complex processes that often violate the apr brown 1989 captures some of the intricacies of this process in a game theoretic model showing that the solution to the bargaining process in bankruptcy can involve deviations from the apr although the solution

has india s economic growth become more pro poor in the wake of economic reforms the extent to which india s poor have benefited from the country s economic growth has long been debated a new series of consumption based poverty measures spanning 50 years including a 15 year period after economic reforms began in earnest in the early 1990s is used to examine that issue growth has tended to reduce poverty including in the post reform period there is no robust evidence of more or less poverty responsiveness to growth since the reforms began although there are signs of rising inequality the impact of growth is higher when using poverty measures that reflects distribution below the poverty line and when using growth rates calculated from household surveys rather than national accounts the urban rural pattern of growth matters for the pace of poverty reduction however in marked contrast to the period before the reforms urban economic growth in the period after the reforms has brought significant gains to the rural poor as well as the urban poor

an r d race with knowledge accumulation i develop a model of an r d race with knowledge accumulation my model does not inherit the memorylessness property of the exponential distribution that troubles existing models of r d races hence firms knowledge stocks are no longer irrelevant to their behavior during the r d race and knowledge accumulation has strategic implications in this more general setting i obtain results that stand in marked contrast to the previous literature in particular under some conditions the firm that is behind in the race engages in catch up behavior this pattern of strategic interactions action reaction is consistent with empirical research copyright 2003 by the rand corporation

technological innovation and real investment booms and busts abstract we investigate why new high risk technologies can attract excessive and often unprofitable investment we develop an equilibrium model in which rational risk averse agents overinvest in a risky technology possibly to the point that its expected return is negative overinvestment results from relative wealth concerns which arise endogenously from the imperfect tradability of future endowments competition over future consumption leads to an indirect utility for wealth with keeping up with the joneses properties that can induce herding because overinvestment increases with the risk of the technology our model can explain why new risky technological innovations may promote investment bubbles

farm productivity and rural poverty in india armed with new data we return to an old question from the pages of this journal to what extent do india s rural poor share in agricultural growth combining data from 24 household sample surveys spanning 35 years with other sources we estimate a model of the joint determination of consumption poverty measures agricultural wages and food prices we find that higher farm productivity brought both absolute and relative gains to poor rural households a large share of the gains was via wages and prices though these effects took time the benefits to the poor were not confined to those near the poverty line

the valuation of floating rate instruments abstract a framework for valuing floating rate notes is developed to examine the effects of 1 lags in the coupon formula 2 special contractual features and 3 default risk evidence from a sample of floaters indicates they sold at significant discounts while lags in the coupon formulas and other contractual features make these notes more variable they do not account for the magnitude of the discounts we conclude that the fixed default premium in the coupon formula of a typical note is inadequate to compensate for time varying default premiums demanded by investors who treat other corporate short term paper as close substitutes

market based empirical research in accounting a review interpretation and extension a decade and a half of the most concerted and ambitious research effort in accounting history is evaluated here it is the search into the relationship between publicly disclosed accounting information and the consequences of the use of this information by the major group of usersequity investors as such consequences are reflected in characteristics of common stocks traded in major exchanges this research effort known as market based accounting research mbar obtained its impetus from major developments in finance theory during the late 1950s and early 1960s these were the portfolio selection theory and its offspring the capital asset pricing model capm and the concept of informationally efficient capital markets ecm subsequent developments in information economics agency theory and optimal incentive signaling models were quickly incorporated into mbar while the impetus to this line of research came from other disciplines accounting was not only a beneficiary but also to a modest extent a benefactor mbar is relevant to the study of capital market efficiency the capm information economics and regulation this contribution distinguishes mbar from most accounting areas whose contributions to other disciplines are negligible in

a micro model of the federal funds market this paper demonstrates that valuable insights into the determination of federal funds rates can be gained through modeling the micro decisions of market participants fed fund demand functions are derived for different bank valuation functions and several implications are discussed specifically it is i possible to rationalize the observation that large banks are net purchasers and small banks net sellers of fed funds ii to explain the positive spread of fed funds rates over other short term money market rates and iii to link the size of this spread to the federal reserve s underlying monetary policy strategy

bond covenants and delegated monitoring this paper examines alternative contracting arrangements available to a firm seeking to finance an investment project the authors consider the choice between loan contracts with covenants based on noisy indicators of the firm s financial health and loan contracts enforced by a monitoring specialist in one interpretation the specialist is a financial intermediary the firm s choice is shown to depend upon the firm s credit rating the accuracy of financial indicators of the firm s condition the loss from premature liquidation of the firm s project and the cost of monitoring

free entry and social inefficiency our goal is to provide a simple yet general exposition of the conditions under which the number of entrants in a free entry equilibrium is excessive insufficient or optimal our analysis compares the number of firms that enter a market when there is free entry with the number that would be desired by a social planner who is unable to control the behavior of firms once they are in the market that is we consider the second best problem of choosing the welfare maximizing number of firms while we take as given their noncompetitive behavior after entry we demonstrate that the crucial conditions for establishing the presence of an entry bias can be stated quite simply in terms of the outcome of the postentry game played by entrants in contrast to previous work we do not need to model this postentry game explicitly

the impact of seniority and security covenants on bond yields a note theoretical research on the rational pricing of covenants in corporate bonds has examined seniority and security covenants black and cox 1 and ho and singer 8 use the option pricing model to show that senior debt should have a higher price than subordinated debt recent studies by smith and warner 10 11 and warner 13 document the widespread use of security covenants and argue that security reduces yield despite the broad concensus that seniority security covenants should reduce bond yields ceteris paribus empirical tests have failed to provide strong support for this view rather prior studies 2 3 have shown that security may actually increase the yield to maturity on debt the research cited relied on multivariate statistical techniques to examine various factors affecting yields or prices within specific rating categories contrary findings regarding security were attributed to differences in risk among bonds in the same rating category the present note is a refinement of past empirical studies by relying on a different test design we alleviate difficulties inherent in bond ratings specifically we study matched pairs of nonconvertible bonds issued by the same company that have similar features except for seniority security covenants our results support the view that seniority security covenants are rationally priced the next section discusses our test design and data and section ii summarizes our findings

population growth and poverty another look at the indian time series data previous studies of the time trend of rural poverty in india agree in assuming that population size does not influence poverty independently of per capita agricultural output the article examines this assumption for the 1959 160 to 1970 71 period using a pooled model with variable slope coefficients to avoid the problem of collinearity between population estimates and time the results suggest that poverty in india during 1960s was a function of both agricultural production and population but that the properties of this function are significantly different from those generally posited

know how and asset complementarity and dynamic capability accumulation the case of r d dynamic capabilities enable firms to create new products and processes and respond to changing market conditions this empirical investigation of dynamic r d capabilities deals with the role of complementary know how and other assets in the context of changing conditions in the u s petroleum industry during the 1970s and early 1980s the analysis suggests that in response to rising oil prices firms with larger amounts of complementary technological knowledge and physical assets also undertook larger amounts of r d on coal conversion a synthetic fuels process 1997 by john wiley sons ltd

workfare versus transfers in rural india abstract prevailing methods for evaluating workfare schemes are inconsistent with the arguments made for workfare in poor rural economies those arguments emphasize the existence of higher involuntary underemployment among the poor and the fact that the type of work provided by these schemes gives disutility deterring non poor households from participating to include these features the consumption based welfare metric used in past assessments of workfare schemes in underemployed developing countries is generalized to incorporate a welfare loss from casual manual work while allowing the government to independently value the work done for other reasons using data for india s national rural employment guarantee scheme nregs the paper shows that the policy ranking switches in favor of a basic income guarantee big over workfare allowing for a welfare loss from casual manual labor implies a more poor poor targeting performance but this is not sufficient to compensate for the direct welfare loss from the work requirement for plausible parameter values a big dominates nregs for a given total outlay on workfare wages

the systematic risk of corporate bonds this statement presents the usual perception of bond risk it is striking in that it does not discuss what is from a portfolio theoretic view the risk of a bond the covariance of its return with the returns of other assets this is in contrast to the typical discussion of the riskiness of common stocks where we find some discussion of systematic risk and the role it plays in determining equilibrium expected security returns

the risk return attributes of publicly traded venture capital implications for investors and public policy abstract despite having provided original seed money to extremely successful start ups such as federal express cray research and apple computer the small business administration sba with encouragement from the u s senate has recently placed a moratorium on granting new small business investment company sbic licenses and due to perceived fund mismanagement at least some senators have suggested that the misguided sbis could lead to a mini s l bailout consequently the sba has threatened the existence of the sbic government assisted program two public policy issues arise first should the government sponsor sbics given their past risk return characteristics second if sba support does re emerge should changes be made to the organizational structure of sbics with respect to the first issue our study examines the risk return attributes of two categories of venture capital funds publicly traded business development corporations bdcs and sbics popular folklore as well as a recent study in this journal suggest that a well diversified fund of venture capital containing both sbics and bdcs outperforms the general market while previous research assumes that sbics are similar to bdcs we find striking dissimilarities between these groups during 1980 1986 sbics demonstrate significantly greater total and unsystematic risk but significantly less systematic risk than bdcs in addition sbics experience much higher returns on a risk adjusted basis than either the market proxy or bdcs financial theory suggests a number of reasons for the differential performance among the two groups moreover given the strong investment successes of publicly traded sbics during the early to middle 1980s and the ability of the public to monitor sbic investment in lieu of the sba we conclude that continued sba financing of sbics benefits the investment community however the investment performance of sbics in the late 1980s contrasts with the successes achieved earlier in the decade since 1986 many publicly traded sbics have performed poorly liquidated or changed their organizational status we conclude that many of these problems originate with the investment company act of 1940 this act limits operating flexibility of sbics discourages public trading and related monitoring by public investors and reduces the equity capital cushion accordingly we propose guidelines including audit and equity capital considerations that may mitigate difficulties stemming from the organizational structure of sbics public policy issues related to sba sponsorship of sbics are relevant to individual and institutional investors particularly as they relate to dividends liquidity investment allocation and portfolio risk of venture capital related funds for example our study indicates that publicly traded sbics on average appear to have greater corporate financial leverage and a large percentage of their portfolio invested in fixed income securities compared with private sbics which invest more heavily in equity funds to the extent that the sba relaxes dividend payout restrictions on sbic operating income we might expect lower financial leverage and a greater portfolio allocation to equity instruments this change would tend to reduce the financial risk related to sbic ownership and encourage the provision of equity capital to emerging enterprises

wages and productivity growth in a competitive industry abstract we describe the evolution of productivity growth in a competitive industry with free entry and exit the exogenous wage rate determines the firms engagement in labor productivity enhancing process innovation there is a unique steady state of the industry dynamics which is globally asymptotically stable in the steady state the number of active firms their unit labor cost and supply depend on the growth rate but not on the level of the wage rate in addition to providing comparative statics of the steady state the paper characterizes the industry s adjustment path

production prices and poverty in rural india this paper challenges the view that increases in agricultural production have reduced poverty in rural india rural poverty is related directly to the consumer price index number for agricultural labourers and inversely to agricultural production the underlying time trend term indicates a residual rising trend in rural poverty after accounting for the influence of these two factors there are plausible though conjectural reasons for believing that to a significant extent the price factor as well as the variables implicit in the time trend term both derive their strength if not their existence from the nature of the growth processes which have generated the observed growth in agricultural production these results contradict ahluwalia s earlier conclusions even though they are themselves based on essentially the same data set

corporate bond price data sources and return risk measurement to date a number of studies involving the use of bond prices and or returns have utilized the published prices of trades on the new york and other exchanges these exchange quotes reflect the odd lot activities of individual investors and account for only a negligible portion of the trading in listed issues in contrast the vast majority of listed corporate trading occurs over the counter and involves round lot trades between institutions given differences in market characteristics odd lot exchange prices may differ substantially from those in the round lot institutional market this study compares exchange quotations from moody s bond record with prices assigned by merrill lynch s institutional pricing service and uses each set of prices to calculate return and risk measures institutional merrill lynch bond prices are shown to be systematically greater than exchange moody s prices in addition bond returns based on merrill lynch prices are shown to yield significantly higher beta and r 2 estimates as well as significantly lower standard deviation and residual risk estimates

government spending growth and poverty in rural india using state level data for 1970 93 a simultaneous equation model was developed to estimate the direct and indirect effects of different types of government expenditure on ruralpoverty and productivity growth in india the results show that in order to reduce rural poverty the indian government shoul d give highest priority to additionalinvestments in ruralroads and agricul turalresearch these types of investment not only have much larger poverty impacts per rupee spent than any other government investment but also generate higher productivity growth apart from government spending on education which has the third l argest marginalimpact on ruralpoverty and produc

speculative profits innovation and growth when technological change affects the prices of tradeable assets innovators can obtain speculative profits by exploiting their inside information as to the occurrence of innovations we propose a tractable model of endogenous growth that formalizes this argument originally due to hirshleifer 1971 we then use the model to assess two claims advanced by hirshleifer namely that speculative profits can generate excessive investment in r d when they add to monopoly rents guaranteed by patent protection or else even in a perfectly competitive economy the analysis confirms the first claim but casts doubts on the second one jel o30 o40

the intersection of market and credit risk abstract economic theory tells us that market and credit risks are intrinsically related to each other and not separable we describe the two main approaches to pricing credit risky instruments the structural approach and the reduced form approach it is argued that the standard approaches to credit risk management creditmetrics creditrisk and kmv are of limited value when applied to portfolios of interest rate sensitive instruments and in measuring market and credit risk empirically returns on high yield bonds have a higher correlation with equity index returns and a lower correlation with treasury bond index returns than do low yield bonds also macro economic variables appear to influence the aggregate rate of business failures the creditmetrics creditrisk and kmv methodologies cannot reproduce these empirical observations given their constant interest rate assumption however we can incorporate these empirical observations into the reduced form of jarrow and turnbull 1995b drawing the analogy risk 5 63 70 model here default probabilities are correlated due to their dependence on common economic factors default risk and recovery rate uncertainty may not be the sole determinants of the credit spread we show how to incorporate a convenience yield as one of the determinants of the credit spread for credit risk management the time horizon is typically one year or longer this has two important implications since the standard approximations do not apply over a one year horizon first we must use pricing models for risk management some practitioners have taken a different approach than academics in the pricing of credit risky bonds in the event of default a bond holder is legally entitled to accrued interest plus principal we discuss the implications of this fact for pricing second it is necessary to keep track of two probability measures the martingale probability for pricing and the natural probability for value at risk we discuss the benefits of keeping track of these two measures

pricing derivatives on financial securities subject to credit risk this article provides a new methodology for pricing and hedging derivative securities involving credit risk two types of credit risks are considered the first is where the asset underlying the derivative security may default the second is where the writer of the derivative security may default we apply the foreign currency analogy of jarrow and turnbull 1991 to decompose the dollar payoff from a risky security into a certain payoff and a spot exchange rate arbitrage free valuation techniques are then employed this methodology can be applied to corporate debt and over the counter derivatives such as swaps and caps the purpose of this article is to provide a new theory for pricing and hedging derivative securities involving credit risk two sources of credit risk are identified and analyzed the first is where the asset underlying the derivative security may default paying off less than promised this is the case for example with imbedded options on corporate debt the second is the credit risk introduced by the writer of the derivative security who may also default examples include over the counter writers of options on eurodollar futures swaps and swaptions for pricing derivative securities involving credit risk there are currently two approaches the first views these derivatives as contingent claims not on the financial securities themselves but as compound options on the assets underlying the financial securities this is the case for example with the pricing of imbedded options on corporate debt see merton 1974 1977 black and cox 1976 ho and singer 1982 chance 1990 and kim ramaswamy and sundaresan 1993 or the pricing of vulnerable options see johnson and stulz 1987 in practice however this valuation methodology is difficult to use first the assets underlying the financial security are often not tradeable and therefore their values are not observable this makes application of the theory and estimation of the relevant parameters problematic second as in the case of corporate debt all of the other liabilities of the firm senior to the corporate debt must first and simultaneously be valued this generates significant computational difficulties as a result this approach has not

the impact of changes in human fertility on poverty household survey data for developing and transitional economies are used to estimate the effect of fertility crude birth rate net of infant deaths on private consumption poverty cross national regressions indicate that higher fertility increases poverty both by retarding economic growth and by skewing distribution against the poor our median country in 1980 had dollar a day poverty incidence of 18 9 per cent had it reduced its fertility by four per 1 000 throughout the 1980s the sample median fall it is estimated that incidence would have been reduced to 13 9 per cent the growth and distribution effects being roughly equally responsible for this reduction

some results on bond yield and default probability fisher 5 suggested that the difference between a corporate bond s promised yield tomaturity ytm and the ytm of a government bond of the same maturity is composed of the sum of the corporate default risk the variability of the firm s earnings the firm s reliability in meeting its obligations its capital structure and the bond s marketability since then fisher s measure has often been used to measure bond risk for example fraser and mccormack 6 have used the spreads between newly issued bank bonds and aaa bonds of compatible maturities as substitutes for riskless government bonds to measure the changes in banks borrowing risk after two large bank failures in their paper spread is intended to provide for intra firm industry default risk comparisons over time radcliffe 15 uses yield spreads to differentiate the riskiness among corporate bonds in this case the spread is used for inter firm risk comparisons sharpe 18 has suggested a similar measure of bond default risk which is the ytm less the expected rate of return however most of these papers do not provide a bond pricing model which would furnish the link between a firm s riskiness and the ytm and default risk of its bond without this it is difficult to draw inferences between ytm s and default risk

the effect of leverage on the cost of capital of us buyouts abstract this paper addresses the problem to assess the effect of leverage on the cost of capital for buyout performance analyses it draws on a unique and proprietary set of data on 133 us buyouts between 1984 and 2004 for each of them we determine a public market equivalent that matches it with respect to its timing and its systematic risk we show that under realistic mimicking conditions the average cost of capital is below the commonly used benchmark s p 500 thereby we control for two important aspects for the risks taken by lenders in the buyout transactions which affects the sponsors risks and for the corresponding cost of debt which lowers the return of the public market equivalent only with borrowing and lending at the risk free rate is the average cost of capital close to the average index return this finding is particularly important as existing literature on that topic tends to rely on benchmarks without a proper risk adjustment

bond systematic risk and the option pricing model in this paper we examine the behavior of the systematic risk of corporate bonds a model that assumes d is constant is compared with a model that allows systematic risk to vary in a manner consistent with the black scholes merton options pricing model this procedure captures some fundamental properties of the movement of bond b and provides a starting point for improved models of the process generating bond returns a number of recent papers have shown that the systematic risk of corporate bonds is related to bond rating in this paper a model of the relation between the systematic risk of a bond customarily denoted b and the characteristics of the bond the issuer and the state of the capital markets is formulated and subjected to the empirical test the empirical analysis differs from the studies cited earlier in that the estimation technique explicitly allows for nonstationarity of b the paper is organized in the following manner a general market model regression with nonstationary coefficients is introduced in section i section i also shows how the black scholes merton option pricing model can be used to make predictions about the regression coefficient or b of corporate bonds section ii describes the methods and data used in the tests section iii presents the results and section iv contains a summary and suggestions for future research

time varying return and risk in the corporate bond market this paper examines the pricing of exchange traded long term corporate bond portfolios observable instruments measuring the term structure of interest rates levels of bond and stock prices and a january dummy are found to predict excess returns on corporate bonds an intertemporal asset pricing model with changing expectations and unobservable factors is then estimated for the predictable excess returns using hansen s generalized method of moments the results show that a multibeta linear time varying model of con ditional expected returns with constant betas can successfully value corporate bonds spe cifically the tests indicate the presence of two time varying hedge portfolios the data however support a single latent variable specification when all january observations are excluded this result suggests the existence of a strong january seasonal in one of the latent variables

what causes over investment in r d in endogenous growth models endogenous growth models may exhibit either under or over investment in r d the possibility of over investment is generally attributed to a business stealing effect that arises as the latest innovator destroys and or appropriates previous incumbent s rents we argue that this conventional wisdom is misleading in standard models business stealing by itself cannot result in excessive r d we explain the other effects that must be at work here thus contributing towards a better understanding of when and why the market may be biased towards excessive r d

the maturity structure of corporate debt we provide an empirical examination of the determinants of corporate debt maturity our evidence offers strong support for the contracting cost hypothesis firms that have few growth options are large or are regulated have more long term debt in their capital structure we find little evidence that firms use the maturity structure of their debt to signal information to the market the evidence is consistent however with the hypothesis that firms with larger information asymmetries issue more short term debt we find no evidence that taxes affect debt maturity

pricing black scholes options with correlated credit risk abstract this paper presents an improved method of pricing vulnerable black scholes options under assumptions which are appropriate in many business situations an analytic pricing formula is derived which allows not only for correlation between the option s underlying asset and the credit risk of the counterparty but also for the option writer to have other liabilities further the proportion of nominal claims paid out in default is endogenous to the model and is based on the terminal value of the assets of the counterparty and the amount of other equally ranking claims numerical examples compare the results of this model with those of other pricing formulas based on alternative assumptions and illustrate how the model can be calibrated using market data

information aggregation in a noisy rational expectations economy abstract this paper analyzes a general equilibrium model of a competitive security market in which traders possess independent pieces of information about the return of a risky asset each trader conditions his estimate of the return both on his own private source of information and price which in equilibrium serves as a noisy aggregator of the total information observed by all traders a closed form characterization of the rational expectations equilibrium is presented a counter example to the existence of fully revealing equilibrium is developed

statistical tests of contingent claims asset pricing models abstract a new methodology for statistically testing contingent claims asset pricing models based on asymptotic statistical theory is proposed it is introduced in the context of the black scholes option pricing model for which some illustrative estimation inference and simulation results are also presented the proposed methodology is then extended to arbitrary contingent claims by first considering the estimation problem for general ito processes and then deriving the asymptotic distribution of a general contingent claim which depends upon such ito processes