how to beat the random walk an empirical model of real exchange rates abstract an econometric model is developed for all possible bilateral real exchange rates between the united states the united kingdom germany and japan for the period february 1977 to june 1987 we extend the standard dornbusch frankel type of models using an error correction approach with an observable macro economic determinant of the long run real exchange rate for the econometric analysis we develop an efficient estimator by pooling the data for all currencies contrary to previous empirical tests on the long run behaviour of real exchange rates we find a notable and significant mean reversion component

foreign wage premium gender and education insights from vietnam household surveys this paper investigates the differential impacts of foreign ownership on wages for different types of workers in terms of educational background and gender in vietnam using the vietnam household living standards surveys of 2002 and 2004 whereas most previous studies have compared wage levels between foreign and domestic sectors using firm level data thus excluding the informal sector one advantage of using the living standards surveys in this paper is that the data allow wage comparison analyses to extend to the informal wage sector a series of mincerian earnings equations and worker specific fixed effects models are estimated several findings emerge first foreign firms pay higher wages relative to their domestic counterparts after controlling for workers personal characteristics second the higher the individual workers levels of education the larger on average are the wage premiums for those who work for foreign firms third longer hours of work in foreign firm jobs relative to working in the informal wage sector are an important component of the wage premium finally unskilled women experience a larger foreign wage premium than unskilled men reflecting the low earning opportunities for women and a higher gender gap in the informal wage sector

position auctions with consumer search this paper examines a model in which advertisers bid for sponsored link positions on a search engine the value advertisers derive from each position is endogenized as coming from sales to a population of consumers who make rational inferences about rm qualities and search optimally consumer search strategies equilibrium bidding and the welfare benets of position auctions are analyzed implications for reserve prices and a number of other auction design questions are discussed

maximum likelihood estimation of cointegration in exchange rate models for seven inflationary oecd countries abstract we apply the johansen technique to estimate cointegration in a monetary exchange rate model modified for real exchange rate fluctuations and applied to seven inflationary oecd countries we generally find one or more cointegrating vectors and the signs of their coefficients are broadly consistent with the modified monetary model the adjustment coefficients are also examined our statistical testing is based on bootstrapping and generates much more conservative rejection criteria than the use of asymptotic critical values even after a substantial degree of freedom correction power estimates are also presented finally we conclude that the monetary model unmodified for real exchange rate fluctuations would be inadequate

the gender gap fertility and growth changes in fertility have long been recognized as important correlates of economic growth with the relationship between the level of fertility and the level of income per capita being one of the strongest observable correlations in cross country data this paper examines the linkages between fertility and growth theory the structure of the model is presented in sections on production couples decision making system dynamics and steady state equilibria the first component of the model is that increases in capital per worker raise womens relative wages since capital is more complementary to womens labor input than to mens the second component is that increasing womens relative wages reduces fertility by raising the cost of children more than household income finally lower fertility raises the level of capital per worker a positive feedback loop generates demographic transition a rapid decline in fertility accompanied by accelerated output growth

does marriage really make men more productive this paper presents new descriptive evidence regarding marital pay premiums earned by white males longitudinal data indicate that wages rise after marriage and that cross sectional marriage premiums appear to result from a steepening of the earnings profile data from a company personnelfile that includes information on job grades and supervisor performance ratings reveal large marital status pay differences within a narrow range of occupations managers and professionals and environments a single firm married workers tend to be located in higher paying job grades there are very small pay differentials within grades married men receive higher performance ratings than single men as a result they are much more likely to be promoted controlling for rated performance however eliminates the promotion differential sanders korenman is an assistant professor of economics and public affairs at princeton university and is a faculty associate of the office of population research at princeton university and a research affiliate of the national bureau of economic research nber david neumark is an assistant professor of economics at the university of pennsylvania and a research affiliate of the nber korenman wishes to acknowledge the hewlett foundation and the harvard university center for population studies for financial support the authors are grateful to james medofffor making available an extract from the company personnelfile questions regarding data availability should be directed to professor james

national price levels purchasing power parity and cointegration a test of four high inflation economies abstract the time series properties of exchange rates and wholesale prices from four high inflation countries show some evidence in support of purchasing power parity tests for stationarity of real exchange rates and cointegration among price and exchange rate variables are presented for argentina brazil chile and israel during the 1970s and 1980s error correction models describe the mechanism of adjustment to long run equilibrium

are those paid more really more productive the case of experience this study uses computerized personnel microdata on the white male managerial and professional employees at a major u s corporation to address the following question can the additional earnings which are associated with more labor market experience at a point in time really be explained by higher productivity at the same point in time our answer to this question based on both cross sectional and longitudinal information is that performance plays a substantially smaller role in explaining cross sectional experience earnings differentials and earnings growth than is claimed by those who have adopted the human capital explanation of the experience earnings profile this response depends critically on our assumption that the performance ratings which supervisors give to their white male managerial and professional subordinates adequately reflect the subordinates relative productivity in the year of assessment we present a great deal of evidence which strongly supports this assumption

the accumulation of human capital during marriage by males married males have significantly higher wage rates than never married widowed or divorced males even when differences in educational attainment experience race and so on are controlled for evidence presented in this paper suggests that most of the unexplained wage differential associated with marital status in earnings regressions results from males accumulating human capital more rapidly when they are married than when those same males are not married the hypothesis that married males earn more than unmarried males because marriage facilitates the financing of human capital accumulation is supported by this and other evidence

internet advertising and the generalized second price auction selling billions of dollars worth of keywords we investigate the generalized second price gsp auction a new mechanism used by search engines to sell online advertising although gsp looks similar to the vickrey clarke groves vcg mechanism its properties are very different unlike the vcg mechanism gsp generally does not have an equilibrium in dominant strategies and truth telling is not an equilibrium of gsp to analyze the properties of gsp we describe the generalized english auction that corresponds to gsp and show that it has a unique equilibrium this is an ex post equilibrium with the same payoffs to all players as the dominant strategy equilibrium of vcg

foreign owned firms around the world a comparative analysis of wages and employment at the micro level abstract this paper provides the first microeconomic cross country analysis of the effects of foreign ownership on wages employment and worker turnover rates using firm level and linked worker firm data we apply a standardised methodology for three developed germany portugal uk and two emerging economies brazil indonesia we find that wage effects are larger in developing countries and that for each country the largest effect on wages comes from workers who move from domestic to foreign firms employment growth after foreign takeover is concentrated in high skill jobs in contrast to widespread fears there is no evidence that wage gains come at the expense of greater job insecurity separation rates actually fall slightly after takeover we conclude that the positive effect of foreign ownership on wages is not primarily driven by its impact on incumbent wages but by its impact on the creation of high wage jobs

the monetary approach to the exchange rate in this paper the monetary approach to the exchange rate is re examined for three key currencies using data for the recent experience with flexible exchange rates two important findings are reported in the paper first it is demonstrated using a multivariate cointegration technique that an unrestricted monetary model is a valid framework for analysing the long run exchange rate second we find inter alia that the proportionality of the exchange rate to relative money supplies is valid for the german mark

household specialization and the male marriage wage premium empirical research has consistently shown that married men have substantially higher wages on average than otherwise similar unmarried men one commonly cited hypothesis to explain this pattern is that marriage allows one spouse to specialize in market production and the other to specialize in home production enabling the former usually the husband to acquire more market specific human capital and ultimately earn higher wages the authors test this hypothesis using panel data from the national survey of families and households the data reveal that married men spent virtually the same amount of time on home production as did single men albeit on different types of housework estimates from a fixed effects wage equation indicate that the male marriage wage premium is not substantially affected by controls for home production activities household specialization the authors conclude does not appear to have been responsible for the marriage premium in this sample

co integration error and purchasing power parity between canada and the united states the concept of cointegration and the associated error correction representation of a dynamic process see r f engle and c w g granger 1987 is applied to the purchasing power parity relationship between canada and the united states the results are supportive of purchasing power parity as a long run equilibrium relationship between the canadian dollar american dollar exchange rate the purchasing power parity relationship is maintained although with different dynamic mechanisms during both fixed and flexible exchange rate regimes

multivariate cointegration analysis and the long run validity of ppp this paper tests the long run validity of ppp using johansen s multivariate cointegration methodology on exchange rates and domestic and foreign price levels monthly data covering the recent flexible exchange rate period of the dm vis a vis 15 currencies le ad to the following conclusion ppp seems to hold in the long run for s ix european currencies the pound lira norwegian krone schilling escudo and peseta however ppp has to be rejected for the united states and the canadian dollar as well as for the belgian franc and the danish krone nevertheless the authors analysis is more favorable to ppp as a long run property of exchange rates than the recent work applying the engle granger regression methodology copyright 1993 by mit press

real and nominal exchange rates in the long run an empirical investigation abstract this paper reports on econometric tests of the hypothesis that purchasing power parity holds as a long run relationship using data on eight industrialized countries during the flexible exchange rate period the empirical work proceeds by i testing whether nominal exchange rates and relative price levels are co integrated and ii conducting impulse response analysis of long run exchange rate and relative price level changes to explain the data keynesian models suggest that shocks during the estimation period were due principally to exogenous shifts in aggregate demand while equilibrium models suggest that monetary factors have been relatively more important

currency fluctuations in the post bretton woods era the international monetary landscape that has emerged since the felling of bretton woods is characterized by a hybrid exchange rate system that lies somewhere between the textbook polar cases of a gold standard and a pure float this system has relatively flexible exchange rates between major countries active central bank intervention in the market for the major currencies and predominantly fixed exchange rates relative to the dollar or to some basket of currencies for less developed countries and newly industrializing nations the majority of research on currency markets since the early 1970s has focused on the characteristics of flexible exchange rates under this hybrid regime my thesis is that this research has been unsuccessful the proportion of monthly or quarterly exchange rate changes that current models can explain is essentially zero even after the fact forecasts that use actual values instead of forecasted values of the explanatory variables cannot explain major currency movements over the post bretton woods era this result is quite surprising since exchange rate changes would be entirely unpredictable only in very special cases of the theoretical models discussed as the discussion below will argue it is not a general implication of market efficiency that exchange rates follow a random walk process 1

a quantitative reassessment of the purchasing power parity hypothesis evidence from norway and the united kingdom summary annual data from norway and the united kingdom from 1874 to 1971 are used to reassess the empirical performance of the purchasing power parity ppp doctrine the simple version of the ppp relationship is supported by the data only if different short run dynamics during a floating rate period 1914 1928 is allowed for two sets of factors were found to be important in amending the simple ppp model these were short run cyclical variables affecting the adjustment towards the ppp equilibrium relationship and long run structural factors such as productivity and terms of trade within this expanded model the proportionality between the exchange rate and relative price levels could not be rejected

skewed bidding in pay per action auctions for online advertising online search as well as keyword based contextual advertising on third party publishers is primarily priced using pay per click ppc advertisers pay only when a consumer clicks on the advertisement slots for advertisements are auctioned and per click bids are weighted by the probability of a click given that the advertisement is displayed the click through rate in addition to other factors the ppc method allows the advertising platform e g google to bundle together otherwise heterogeneous items impressions on different positions on a search page on different search phrases sharing common keywords and on different publishers into more homogeneous units simplifying the advertiser s bidding problem however ppc pricing has some drawbacks first all clicks are not created equal clicks on a paris france hotel website that is displayed on a search for paris hilton may result in lower pro t conditional on the click second for infrequently searched phrases on search engines or small content providers it is difcult for the advertiser to accurately estimate conversion rates increasing the risk and monitoring costs for the advertiser and diminishing their incentives to advertise broadly indeed on contextual networks the advertising platform may not even provide the advertiser with suf cient accounting data about where the advertisements were displayed to allow the advertiser to distinguish sources of clicks and the publisher mix may change on an ongoing basis third the problem of click fraud is fairly pervasive when publishers receive a share of advertising revenue advertisers place a single bid applying to many publishers and revenue

paying more to hire the best foreign firms wages and worker mobility i introduction as globalization evolves there is greater interest in its labor market implications one dimension of this question concerns the role of foreign firms in terms of their remuneration of host economy workers while earlier cross sectional evidence suggests that foreign firms offer more generous pay levels than their domestic counterparts aitken et al 1996 feenstra and hanson 1997 some of these results have been questioned in recent research based on longitudinal worker level data martins 2004 heyman et al 2007 andrews et al 2007 moreover firm level studies based on foreign acquisitions of domestic firms find mixed results 1 the main problem in research about the foreign ownership wage differential concerns unobserved heterogeneity across workers employed in either domestic or foreign firms if firm affiliation is correlated with other factors that may affect wages but that are not controlled for then estimates will be biased while some research that aims to tackle this issue considers the case of acquisitions when the same workers can be observed under the two types of firms here we approach the unobserved heterogeneity challenge from an original perspective worker mobility specifically we draw upon a longitudinal census of the portuguese labor market in order to consider virtually all spells of interfirm worker mobility over a long period of time 1991 2000 such mobility spells allow us to observe the same workers when employed by domestic and foreign firms in order to disentangle the wage policy of the firm from the heterogeneity of the workforce we also consider selection effects namely the unexplained differences in the wages of workers who are to experience a movement to a different firm before such movement occurs these unexplained wage differences are likely to capture additional skills not measured in the data but that are observable by those workers current employers such as ability motivation etc on the other hand the wage policy effect which is more directly related to the goal of this paper concerns differences in remuneration experienced by workers who engage in interfirm mobility as they move between firms such differences in remuneration practices across firms are predicted by noncompetitive models of the labor market namely efficiency wages and search models moreover the scope for such wage policy differences is also supported by abundant empirical evidence including that of rent sharing discrimination cohort effects and other evidence of firm heterogeneity in general abowd et al 1999 bartelsman and doms 2000 as far as we know our paper is the first to conduct a systematic analysis of interfirm worker mobility drawing on census data these population data are particularly important for our purpose as the analysis of even large samples would dramatically diminish one s ability to follow workers over time furthermore we are the first to conduct such an extensive analysis in the context of the foreign ownership wage differential literature 2 finally our results may also be useful in terms of reconciling some contrasting evidence for different countries and in terms of shedding light on the role of worker mobility as a channel of productivity spillovers from foreign to domestic firms fosfuri et al 2001 javorcik 2004 unlike earlier research based on foreign acquisitions our paper finds very strong evidence of a sizeable positive wage policy effect for foreign firms however selection effects are also present but at a much smaller scale these results are robust to a number of checks including the consideration of the case of displaced workers and an analysis of the wage growth patterns of movers when in hiring firms the structure of the paper is as follows section ii describes the data sections iii and iv present the results and the robustness analysis finally section v concludes

purchasing power parity as a long run relation dickey fuller and stock watson tests of purchasing power parity ppp as a long run proposition are provided within the cointegration framework proposed by granger since different countries use different weights to construct price indices the traditional constraint that the coefficients on the price indices should be unity in the log linear ppp relation is relaxed the absence of a general ppp relation cannot be rejected at most a ppp relation is indicated in five out of fifteen country pairs that are examined even if a long run ppp relation exists it is not found to be useful in predicting future nominal exchange rates which is consistent with efficient speculative markets

incentive problems in performance based online advertising pricing cost per click vs cost per action the multibillion dollar online advertising industry continues to debate whether to use the cost per click cpc or cost per action cpa pricing model as an industry standard this paper applies the economic framework of incentive contracts to study how these pricing models can lead to risk sharing between the publisher and the advertiser and incentivize them to make efforts that improve the performance of online ads we find that compared with the cpc model the cpa model can better incentivize the publisher to make efforts that can improve the purchase rate however the cpa model can cause an adverse selection problem the winning advertiser tends to have a lower profit margin under the cpa model than under the cpc model we identify the conditions under which the cpa model leads to higher publisher or advertiser payoffs than the cpc model whether publishers or advertisers prefer the cpa model over the cpc model depends on the advertisers risk aversion uncertainty in the product market and the

marital status child rearing and earnings differentials in the graduate labour market differential the importance of family role specialisation for the measurement of the residual earnings differential is examined within a sample selection model of participation and earnings the earnings differential between men and women may be divided into that explained by different characteristics and attributes and that due to residual factors one element of this residual may be discrimination although other factors may be incorporated in the unexplained component the residual also incorporates the effects on earnings associated with the production of home goods see polachek ig75 a b these will occur

real exchange rate behavior the recent float from the perspective of the past two centuries using annual data spanning two centuries for dollar sterling and franc sterling real exchange rates we find strong evidence of mean reverting real exchange rate behavior using simple stationary autoregressive models estimated on prefloat data we easily outperform nonstationary real exchange rate models in dynamic forecasting exercises over the recent float such stationary univariate equations explain 60 80 percent of the in sample variation in real exchange rates although the degree of short run persistence may be high the econometric estimates imply a half life of shocks to the real exchange rate of about 6 years for dollar sterling and a little under 3 years for franc sterling

a critical evaluation of exchange rate policy in turkey abstract this paper reviews and critically evaluates the exchange rate policy followed in turkey in the post 1980 period during which a far reaching program of liberalization has been launched we conclude that the new exchange rate policy has been essential for turkey s regaining its creditworthiness furthermore it has positively contributed to growth of output and exports and to expansion of tradables production relative to nontradables persistence of inflation and weakness of private investment in tradables overshadow the successes recorded in other areas and cast doubt over the sustainability of turkey s outward orientation we argue that the root cause of these problems has been inconsistencies between overall economic policies rather than the exchange rate policy itself we compare the period of real appreciations since late 1998 with the earlier period of real depreciations and draw policy implications

marital status and earnings of young men a model with endogenous selection it is a matter of course in applied labor economics to presume that marital status is a predetermined contributor to earnings among young males we find no evidence to support that proposition we estimate a model of earnings determination that permits endogenous selection of marital status our estimates are based on a sample of young employed males from the michigan panel survey of income dynamics they indicate that marital status viewed in this manner does not significantly shift the mean earnings profile our sensitivity tests indicate that this conclusion is robust with respect to a variety of alternative specifications excerpt

cointegration how short is the long run abstract when testing for cointegration and faced with short sample periods it is common for researchers to turn to more frequently sampled observations that is to move from annual to quarterly or monthly data in order to increase the number of observations we argue that such a gain in the degrees of freedom is more apparent than real essentially cointegration is a long run concept and hence requires long spans of data to give tests for cointegration much power rather than merely large numbers of observations using monte carlo simulations we demonstrate this for four popular tests for cointegration

export orientation and female share of employment evidence from turkey abstract we investigate the relationship between export orientation and female share of employment in the turkish manufacturing sector during 1983 85 following the onset of export led industrialization policies using plant level data we find that female share of employment in a plant increases with the export to total output ratio of its sector the contribution of the study to the literature is its use of plant level data for a large number of plants enabling us to control for other determinants of female share of employment such as workers skill composition at the plant level

cointegration tests of purchasing power parity the case of swiss exchange rates abstract this paper tests purchasing power parity ppp as a long run equilibrium condition by examining the long run relationshiop between exchange rates and wholesale price indices using cointegration tests this paper avoids some of the problems of previous cointegration tests of ppp by using more precise data pretests and by not imposing a priori restrictions upon the cointegrating vector of the nine combinations of swiss exchange rates and price indices examined cointegration is detected in seven cases thus supporting ppp as a long run equilibrium jel f31 c32

exports foreign direct investment and employment the case of china everal theories including the vent for surplus thesis smith 1776 and myint 1958 and the staples theory innis 1930 and 1940 and chambers and gordon 1966 have addressed the role of trade in economic development the former suggests that the opening up of the economy to international trade provides an outlet for surplus productive capacity of the country and promotes economic growth the staples theory argues that the production and trade of resource intensive staple products generates linkages and promotes industrialisation these theories were employed to explain the economic development pattern of the regions of recent settlement in the past such as canada and the united states the plantation economies of malaysia and the peasant export economies of ghana and burma a feature of all these economies was their endowments of natural resources and exports of primary commodities whilst the vent for surplus explanation appears to provide an explanation of the development of natural resource based economies could it also explain the growth of a populous country with huge reservoirs of surplus labour such as china it could be argued that models which specifically address the issue of surplus labour such as the development with unlimited supplies of labour model lewis 1954 provide a much more satisfactory explanation of the development of a surplus labour economy such as china than the vent for surplus model there are though subtle differences between the two explanations these differences discussed later suggest that the vent for surplus explanation may be superior to

co integration tests for long run equilibrium in the monetary exchange rate model abstract the monetary model of exchange rate determination is tested as a long run equilibrium relation tests of co integration among the variables in this model over a wide range of specifications are generally unfavorable to the monetary approach

arima and cointegration tests of ppp under fixed and flexible exchange rate regimes real exchange rates between the united states and its major trading partners were calculated for the bretton woods and flexible exchange rate periods unit root tests indicate that purchasing power parity performed poorly in both periods tests for cointegration reveal limited instances in which it is possible to estimate the deviations from ppp as an error correcting model the estimated error correcting models indicate that foreign but not u s prices responded to deviations from ppp frenkel s 1981b finding that purchasing power parity ppp worked better during the 1920s than the 1970s caused considerable controversy for example davutyan and pippenger 1985 contend that the socalled collapse of ppp is a result of an increase in the relative importance of real versus monetary shocks they argue that the 1970s as opposed to the 1920s was characterized by real supply shocks and the international coordination of monetary policies the argument is that ppp did not fail rather there was an increase in the volatility of those factors giving rise to deviations from ppp hakkio 1984 reestimated ppp over the 1920s and 1970s using cross country tests i e sure estimates to improve the efficiency of his estimates he was able to support the hypothesis that ppp worked better in the 1970s than in the 1920s on the other hand papers by adler and lehman 1983 dornbusch 1980 frenkel 1981a junge 1985 and krugman 1978 report findings contrary to the ppp hypothesis moreover kenen and rodrik 1986 find that the volatility of real exchange rates has increased throughout the flexible rate period this paper tries to shed some light on the importance and persistence of the observed deviations from purchasing power parity under alternative exchange rate systems while it is interesting to compare ppp in the 1920s versus the 1970s it is equally useful to compare the 1960s versus the 1970s and 1980s if real supply shocks and lack of monetary coordination are characteristic of the latter period ppp should perform better in the 1960s to illustrate the issues involved consider the following econometric model of relative purchasing power

multi country evidence on the behavior of purchasing power parity under the current float abstract using panel data for the united states and 22 other oecd countries for the current float this paper presents evidence that despite substantial short term perturbations purchasing power parity actually performed much better than commonly believed average rates of growth of real exchange rates over long horizons bear little relationship either to average rates of growth of nominal exchange rates or to average inflation differentials thus implying a close to one to one relation between average rates of growth of nominal exchange rates and average inflation differentials panel data variants of standard unit root tests suggest that the real exchange rates of these countries can be characterized as mean reverting

long run purchasing power parity during the recent float abstract this paper examines the relevance of long run purchasing power parity ppp which allows for measurement errors during the recent floating exchange rate period previous empirical studies generally fail to find support for long run ppp over this period in this paper in this paper the cointegration property of exchange rates and prices is examined using maximum likelihood procedure and we find significant evidence favorable to long run ppp further tests for symmetry and proportionality indicate that these two conditions are not generally with the data the results support the hypothesis of long run ppp with measurement errors in prices

performance pay and wage inequality an increasing fraction of jobs in the u s labor market explicitly pay workers for their performance using bonus pay commissions or piece rate contracts using data from the panel study of income dynamics we show that compensation in performance pay jobs is more closely tied to both observed and unobserved productive characteristics of workers than compensation in non performance pay jobs we also find that the return to these productive characteristics increased faster over time in performance pay than in non performance pay jobs we show that this finding is consistent with the view that underlying changes in returns to skill due for instance to technological change induce more firms to offer performance pay contracts and result in more wage inequality among workers who are paid for performance thus performance pay provides a channel through which underlying changes in returns to skill get translated into higher wage inequality we conclude that this channel accounts for 21 of the growth in the variance of male wages between the late 1970s and the early 1990s and for most of the increase in wage inequality above the eightieth percentile over the same period

foreign direct investment education and wages in indonesian manufacturing this paper examines whether the higher wages paid by foreign owned manufacturing plants than by domestically owned plants typical of most countries represents a higher price for labor that is does it reflect a higher price for workers of a given quality as represented by the level of education we then ask whether foreign owned plants pay a higher price for labor given the characteristics of the plants foreign owned firms are found to pay a higher price for labor of a given educational level than domestically owned ones only a part of the difference is associated with plant characteristics rather than ownership

longitudinal analyses of the effects of trade unions but union members are different from nonmembers in unobserved ways biasing your estimates y ou should make a selectivity bias correction simultaneously determine union status and economic outcomes develop an unobservables model use longitudinal data archetypical comment on virtually any study of the economic effects of umomsm or suitably modified on any other empirical subject

single equation maximum likelihood estimates of the cointegrating vector in a dollar lira exchange rate model several single equation asymptotically maximum likelihood techniques are applied to estimate the cointegrating vector in a dollar lira exchange rate model for compatison the results from a systems approach are also reported differences in results from the different approaches probably reflect the small sample but the parameter estimates for each variable have the correct sign and are statistically significant the results indicate that factors from both monetary and real exchange rate models are important

is there really a foreign ownership wage premium evidence from matched employer employee data numerous studies on firm level data have reported higher average wages in foreign owned firms than in domestically owned firms this however does not necessarily imply that the individual worker s wage increase with foreign ownership using detailed matched employer employee data on the entire swedish private sector we examine the effect of foreign ownership on individual wages controlling for individual and firm heterogeneity as well as for possible selection bias in foreign acquisitions we distinguish between foreign greenfields and takeovers and compare foreign owned firms with both domestic multinationals and local firms our results show a considerably smaller wage premium in foreign owned firms than what has been found in studies conducted at a more aggregate level moreover foreign takeovers of swedish firms tend to have no or even a negative effect on wages

from motherhood penalties to husband premia the new challenge for gender equality and family policy lessons from norway given the key role that processes occurring in the family play in creating gender inequality the family is a central focus of policies aimed at creating greater gender equality we examine how family status affects the gender wage gap using longitudinal matched employer employee data from norway 1979 96 a period with extensive expansion of family policies the motherhood penalty dropped dramatically from 1979 to 1996 among men the premia for marriage and fatherhood remained constant in 1979 the gender wage gap was primarily due to the motherhood penalty but by 1996 husband premia were more important than motherhood penalties

cointegration and tests of purchasing power parity nonstationarity in the levels of spot exchange rates and domestic and foreign price indices makes the use of conventional tests of the absolute version of purchasing power parity ppp inappropriate if ppp is true inter country commodity arbitrage ensures that deviations from a linear combination of spot exchange rates and domestic and foreign price levels should be stationary under these conditions exchange rates and price levels should form a cointegrated system we find the null hypothesis of no cointegration cannot be rejected for all five countries thus violating the long run absolute version of ppp

aggregation and linearity in the provision of intertemporal incentives we consider the problem of providing incentives over time for an agent with constant absolute risk aversion the optimal compensation scheme is found to be a linear function of a vector of n accounts which count the number of times that each of the n kinds of observable events occurs the number n is independent of the number of time periods so the accounts may entail substantial aggregation in a continuous time version of the problem the agent controls the drift rate of a vector of accounts that is subject to frequent small random fluctuations the solution is as if the problem were the static one in which the agent controls only the mean of a multivariate normal distribution and the principal is constrained to use a linear compensation rule if the principal can observe only coarser linear aggregates such as revenues costs or profits the optimal compensation scheme is then a linear function of those aggregates the combination of exponential utility normal distributions and linear compensation schemes makes computations and comparative statics easy to do as we illustrate we interpret our linearity results as deriving in part from the richness of the agent s strategy space which makes it possible for the agent to undermine and exploit complicated nonlinear functions of the accounting aggregates

common stochastic trends between forward and spot exchange rates abstract the common trend analyses between the forward rate f t and the corresponding future spot rate of the same currency s t 1 have raised several issues notably the sensitivity of the cointegrating relation to a constant term and lag lengths and the non stationarity of the risk premium this paper addresses these issues more rigorously using the daily exchange rate of the pound sterling vis a vis five major currencies viz the canadian dollar french franc german mark japanese yen and us dollar the appropriate deterministic term in the cointegrating space is identified through empirical tests a robust cointegrating relation is found between f t and s t 1 however the hypothesis of unbiasedness of forward rate could not be sustained an alternative measure of risk premium is suggested and its stationarity is confirmed

testing purchasing power parity under the null hypothesis of co integration this paper analyzes monthly data on the exchange rates and price indices of the eleven major industrial countries over the modern period of floating exchange rates it presents tests that are based upon the null hypothesis of cointegration the paper finds evidence that most country pairs not involving north american currencies have exchange rates and price indices that are cointegrated it estimates the error correction representation for the series that are cointegrated and it shows that the dynamic adjustment of the relationship between exchange rates and prices is accomplished almost entirely in the market for foreign exchange copyright 1991 by royal economic society

a long run view of the european monetary system abstract this papaer analyzes the exchange rates and consumer price indices of six countries participating in the european monetary system ems during the entire period of floating exchange rates the analysis shows that most of these real exchange rates have unit roots even when one allows for the possibility of a structural break at the time of the advent of the ems further proces and exchange rates are not co integrated during the ems period the data suggest that the 12 realignments of the ems have not served fully too offset the member countries inflation differentials

the monetary model of the exchange rate long run relationships short run dynamics and how to beat a random walk abstract the monetary model is re examined for the sterling dollar exchange rate first it is demonstrated using a multivariate cointegration technique that an unrestricted monetary model is a valid framework for analyzing the long run exchange rate second we find once proper account has been taken of the short run data dynamics that an unrestricted monetary model outperforms the random walk and other models in an out of sample forecasting contest jel f31

keyword search advertising and first page bid estimates a strategic analysis in using the generalized second price gsp auction to sell advertising slots a search engine faces several challenges advertisers do not truthfully bid their valuations and the valuations are uncertain furthermore advertisers are budget constrained in this paper we analyze a stylized model of the first page bid estimate fpbe mechanism first developed by google and demonstrate its advantages in dealing with these challenges we show why and when the fpbe mechanism yields higher profits for the search engine compared with the traditional gsp auction and the gsp auction with advertiser specific minimum bid in the event that a high valuation advertiser is budget constrained the search engine can use the fpbe mechanism to alter the listing order with the intent of keeping the high valuation advertiser in the auction for a longer time the resulting increase in the search engine s profits is not necessarily at the expense of the advertisers because the combined profits of the advertisers and the search engine increase this paper was accepted by j miguel villas boas marketing

north south trade and female labour in manufacturing an asymmetry a simple method of measuring the impact of north south trade on the female intensity of manufacturing is applied to data for developed and developing countries the results confirm that growth of exports has increased the relative demand for female labour in the south however there does not appear to have been a general counterpart reduction in the relative demand for female labour in northern manufacturing even among blue collar workers there are several possible reasons for the apparent conflict between these findings and other evidence that in northern manufacturing females have been disproportionately displaced by trade with the south

an empirical examination of long run purchasing power parity using cointegration techniques this paper presents an empirical analysis of long run purchasing power parity ppp for five major exchange rates using recently developed econometric techniques on the cointegration of economic time series our empirical results are extremely unfavourable to the ppp hypothesis as a long run equilibrium condition even with an allowance made for measurement error and or tranportation costs in particular we are unable to reject the hypothesis of non cointegration of the exchange rate and relative prices for any of the countries concerned far from finding a stable long run proportionality between exchange rates and relative prices our results therefore suggest that they tend to drift apart without bound

retail contracting and costly monitoring theory and evidence abstract we reconcile seemingly conflicting hypotheses and evidence that surface in the principal agent literature specifically we examine the literature that deals with the effect of costly monitoring on retail organizational form our principal agent model of the optimal relationship between up and downstream firms allows the principal to garner two types of imperfect signals of agent effort sales data and behavior data the model yields predictions that we confront with the econometric evidence which comes from both franchising and sales force compensation literatures we find that when variation in the informativeness and in the cost of increasing the informativeness of both signals is considered the evidence is consistent with the theory

is there trend reversion in purchasing power parity abstract this study presents some empirical evidence on purchasing power parity ppp using residualbased co integration tests engle and granger s 1987 tests and the ratio of the variance of higher order differences to the variance of the first difference of the residuals of the cointegrating regression are used monthly data over a span of 30 years do not provide any empirical support to the theory conversely in the annual data long run equilibrium tendencies are evident since ppp has been widely used to provide an anchor for the equilibrium exchange rate our results indicate that such an assumption is not completely inadequate