the economics of favors abstract this paper examines the favors people perform for each other using a stochastic version of the infinitely repeated prisoner s dilemma rpd it is shown that the socially efficient outcome may not be consistent with an equilibrium because some favors are too expensive to perform on the other hand it is possible for some socially inefficient favors to be performed even so favor exchange relationships must be strictly pareto improving the model is also able to address situations in which there are market alternatives to the services being exchanged and when favors are exchanged among members of large groups or hierarchies

on the early holocene foraging to early agriculture we consider a world in which the mode of food production foraging or agriculture is endogenous and in which technology grows exogenously within a model of coalition formation we allow individuals to form co operative communities bands of foragers or farmers rationally at the lowest levels of technology equilibrium entails the grand coalition of foragers a co operative structure which avoids over exploitation of the environment but at a critical state of technology the co operative structure breaks down through an individually rational splintering of the band at this stage there can be an increase in work and through the over exploitation of the environment a food crisis in the end technological growth may lead to a one way transition from foraging to agriculture

agricultural price instability a survey of competing explanations and remedies there are two explanations for agricultural price dynamics one follows cobweb logic and models fluctuations driven by expectation errors but emphasises that these expectations create complex dynamics and possibly chaos the other stems from the rational expectations tradition of dynamics driven by real shocks the empirical evidence tends to support the latter but is not conclusive the rational expectations model generates an optimal dynamic path from which no improvement can be expected from public intervention however if we take account of all the potential market failures in agricultural markets and especially in developing countries this conclusion might require some qualifications although an appropriate policy design for stability has still to be achieved this paper surveys the positive and normative literature on agricultural prices highlighting empirical evidence and identifying remaining unresolved issues

the quantification of qualitative survey data a critical assessment abstract data obtained from business and consumer surveys are often used in forecasting models and in testing different expectation formation schemes their use however requires a previous step of transformation of the qualitative data into quantitative figures this paper contains a critical review of the different quantification methods highlighting the limits of their use in macroeconomic modelling

evolutionary stability in games of communication abstract this paper identifies evolutionarily stable outcomes in games in which one player has private information and the other takes a payoff relevant action the informed player can communicate at little cost outcomes satisfying a set valued evolutionary stability condition must exist and be efficient in common interest games when there is a small cost associated with using each message the outcome preferred by the informed player is stable the paper introduces a nonequilibrium set valued stability notion of entry resistant sets for games with partial common interest the no communication outcome is never an element of an entry resistant set journal of economic literature classification numbers c72 d82

it s not just the thought that counts an experimental study on the hidden cost of giving receiving a gift can create an impulse to reciprocate even when doing so may be inefficient and potentially harmful to a third party this paper provides a theoretical framework for a pure gift effect on reciprocity impulses and experimental evidence that such an effect exists that is a gift receiver will favor an actual gift giver over an intended gift giver even if the intended gift giver incurred the same costs and signaled the same intention to give this result contrasts with the predictions of existing theories on social preferences we also show that the pure gift effect is present even when it leads to a less efficient outcome or when the gift is given without the expectation of future returns our findings suggest that when reciprocating a gift becomes socially inefficient it may be more advantageous to guard against gift receiving or to keep donations secret than to try to control the intent to give

the non monetary nature of gifts this paper addresses the prevalence of non monetary gifts over more highly valued and e cient monetary transfers in social relationships we demonstrate that under a wide variety of circumstances ine cient non monetary gifts will be o ered by a donor in lieu of cash in order to signal the donor s quality of information about the recipient s preferences this result emerges because gift giving is ine cient relative to cash and not because of any arbitrary assumptions regarding communication in particular the donor has available the strategy of o ering cash and saying what he would have purchased nonetheless there is still an important equilibrium role for buying gifts 2001 elsevier science b v all rights reserved jel classixcation a13 d10 d64 d82 z1

a life cycle consumption model with liquidity constraints theory and empirical results a structural consumption model incorporating endogenous liquidity constraints is fit to a cross section of 798 u s families liquidity constrained families are estimated to constitute 19 4 percent of the population sampled a group that accounts for 16 7 percent of consumption in the population sampled in sample simulations of the model suggest that a temporary tax has three to four times more impact on aggregate consumption than it would if liquidity constraints were not in effect copyright 1987 by the econometric society

ex ante consumer welfare evaluation in cost benefit analysis abstract public projects and policies are normally evaluated ex ante i e while consumers may still be uncertain about future prices income levels interest rates and preferences this paper extends the theory of ex ante consumer welfare evaluation by developing a 2 period model with multiple sources of uncertainty it provides insights into the influence of temporal uncertainty on the empirical measurement of ex ante willingness to pay

the role of market forces in assuring contractual performance the conditions under which transactors can use the market repeat purchase mechanism of contract enforcement are examined increased price is shown to be a means of assuring contractual performance a necessary and sufficient condition for performance is the existence of price sufficiently above salvageable production costs so that the nonperforming firm loses a discounted steam of rents on future sales which is greater than the wealth increase from nonperformance this will generally imply a market price greater than the perfectly competitive price and rationalize investments in firm specific assets advertising investments thereby become a positive indicator of likely performance

the hyperbolic consumption model calibration simulation and empirical evaluation ur preferences for the long run tend to conflict with our short run behavior when planning for the long run we intend to meet our deadlines exercise regularly and eat healthfully but in the short run we have little interest in revising manuscripts jogging on the stairmaster and skipping the chocolate souffleala mode delay of gratification is a nice long term goal but instant gratification is disconcertingly tempting this gap between long run intentions and short run actions is apparent across a wide range of behaviors including saving choices a 1997 survey found that 76 percent of respondents believe they should be saving more for retirement looking only at respondents who believed they were at an age where you should be seriously saving already the survey found that 55 percent reported being behind in their savings and only 6 percent reported being ahead farkas and johnson 1997 the report on the survey concluded t he gaps between people s atti tudes intentions and behavior are troubling and threaten increased insecurity and dissatisfaction for people when they retire americans are simply not doing what logic and their own reasoning suggests they should be doing a 1993 luntz webber merrill lynch survey found similar answers when baby boomers were asked what percentage of your annual household income do you think you should save for retirement and what percentage of your annual

gift giving and the evolution of cooperation gift giving is a practice common to many societies in an evolutionary model the social custom of giving gifts at the beginning of a relationship can lead to trust and cooperation the evolutionary approach makes predictions about the character of the goods that can be used as gifts for example gift goods may have little use value even at low levels of consumption although the gifts themselves are useless the institution is not

interfirm relationships and informal credit in vietnam trading relations in vietnam s emerging private sector are shaped by two market frictions the difficulty of locating trading partners and the absence of legal enforcement of contracts examining relational contracting we find that a firm trusts its customer enough to offer credit when the customer finds it hard to locate an alternative supplier a longer duration of trading relationship is associated with larger credit as is prior information gathering customers identified through business networks receive more credit these network effects are enduring suggesting that networks are used to sanction defaulting customers

disentangling retirement and savings responses in january 2006 the dutch government implemented a pension reform that substantially reduced the public pension wealth of workers born in 1950 or later at the same time a tax facilitated savings plan was introduced that implied a large savings subsidy for all workers irrespective of birth year this paper uses linked administrative and survey data to assess the effect of the reform on the savings and retirement expectations and realizations of two virtually identical male cohorts that differ only in treatment status the treated having been born in 1950 and the controls having been born in 1949 we show that retirement expectations are in line with realizations and that the reform increased the labor supply for the larger part of the workers namely those without sufficient means to substantially increase private savings to counter the effect of the reform these workers have zero substitution rates between private and public wealth on the other hand there is a group of mostly high wage workers who participate in the tax facilitated savings plan and increase their private savings to fully counter the impact of the drop in public wealth an unintended side effect of the introduction of the tax facilitated savings plan is that high wage earners who are not affected by the drop in pension wealth retire even sooner than initially planned

assessing the economic costs of a foot and mouth disease outbreak on brittany a dynamic computable general equilibrium analysis abstract outbreaks of animal diseases such as foot and mouth disease fmd are of great concern for agriculture in this paper we quantify the potential dynamic impacts of such a disease on brittany a french region with an important livestock sector in order to do this we develop a dynamic computable general equilibrium model that allows us to measure the impacts on the livestock sectors and downstream food industries we study the impacts of a fmd outbreak including the culling infected animals a temporary decline in demand and restrictions on movements of live animals and meats during the fmd outbreak period our results show that economic losses following this disease are spread over many periods even with a one time shock we also find that the impacts on the various primary sectors and downstream food sectors are quite different depending on their initial trade position our general equilibrium results show the great incidence of potential constraints affecting factor markets capital and wage constraints severely increase the aggregate costs of such disease these results challenge the definition of a simple efficient management policy for this disease

using subjective income expectations to test for excess sensitivity of consumption to predicted income growth abstract we test for precautionary saving and excess sensitivity of consumption to predicted income growth using a 1989 1993 panel survey of italian households that has measures of subjective income and inflation expectations these expectations provide a powerful instrument for predicting income growth the empirical specification controls for predictable changes in labor supply and allows a fairly general specification for the stochastic structure of the forecast error we find that consumption growth is positively correlated with the expected variance of income and uncorrelated with predicted income growth overall the results support the precautionary saving model

inflation expectations in turkey learning to be rational turkey implemented an ambitious restructuring of the economy in the past several years including the adoption of inflation targeting along with a floating exchange rate regime inflation came down from almost triple digits to single digits between 2001 and 2005 this particular episode of the turkish economy sets a genuine case study for investigating the possible changes in the behaviour of inflation expectations upon a regime shift accordingly this study analyses inflation expectations in turkey focusing especially on the post 2001 transition phase we first conduct classical tests of unbiasedness and efficiency using aggregate survey data between august 2001 and october 2007 to get a statistical benchmark for rationality we find that classical tests reject full rationality hypothesis for all series except next month s consumer price index cpi inflation expectations then we carry out time varying parameter tvp estimates based on a kalman filter to see how the coefficients in the classical tes

wage expectations in the labor market survey evidence on rationality using a new set of directly observed wage expectations among firms this paper finds that in general firms forecasts fail the unbiasedness and efficiency requirements of weak form rational expectations these market participants consistently underestimate the wages they actually end up paying and their expectations do not efficiently utilize the information in past realizations the mean absolute forecast error of two percent compares with an error of only five percent if static expectations were held the major source of wage fore cast error seems to be errors in predicting demand rather than in predicting supply or the general price level wage forecast errors are positively correlated across fields with distinct supply patterns and are positively correlated with quantity forecast error the properties of stochastically weighted expectations and the effectiveness of the wage and price controls of the early 1970 s are also discussed this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

survey measures of expected u s inflation of real interest rates and cash flows for decisions concerning investment expenditures international capital flows and exchange rate movements hinge in large part on expected real yield differentials across countries the federal reserve needs reliable measures of expected inflation to formulate and gauge the thrust of monetary policy in fact inflation expectations have become more important to the fed given the diminished stability of the link between the monetary aggregates and gdp expenditures since the early 1980s and the greater role which has been thrust upon expected real short term interest rates in the implementation of federal reserve policy the issue of rationality of inflation expectations that is the extent to which agents form expectations without making systematic mistakes in their beliefs about what inflation will be is important if inflation expectations are formed rationally labor and financial markets will strongly tend to neutralize the potential redistributive effects of inflation over time financial capital will flow efficiently within and across national borders moreover some of the stronger claims of new classical macroeconomics like the claim that only unexpected monetary policy actions will

for better or forever formal versus informal enforcement this article contrasts supporting partnerships through relational contracting and supporting partnerships through formal legal institutions a large population of players interact in bilateral relationships efficiency requires cooperation but cheating yields a higher short term payoff there is a positive probability that the maximum feasible payoff available to a partnership decreases opportunistic behavior makes it impossible to realize the efficient outcome a legal system can lead to efficient contracting without such a system productive relationships arise in equilibrium if it is costly to initiate new relationships this type of relational contracting tends to make partnerships last longer than is efficient

savings in times of demographic change lessons from the german experience pension reforms in many developed countries make individuals shoulder a bigger share of longevity and income risks the desired response is that individuals accumulate private assets for retirement whether this actually takes place is of paramount relevance for scientists and policy makers we take germany as an example twenty years of pension reform have transformed the monolithic german pension system into a multi pillar system formerly generous public pension benefits are gradually being reduced while substantial incentives are granted to occupational and private saving schemes has this transition worked out we survey the reform steps and household s reactions how did individuals adjust their labor market behavior how did private and occupational pension plans take off how do behavioral adjustments vary in the population most germans adapted to the new situation both actual and expected retirement decisions changedand the share of households without supplementary pensions decreased from 73 to 39 in little more than a decade this is a remarkable success nonetheless households with low education low income and less financial education did neither adjust their retirement behavior nor pick up supplementary pension plans and are thus likely to face difficulties in bridging the gap arising in future pension income

the retirement consumption puzzle a marital bargaining approach abstract evidence from several countries reveals a substantial drop in household consumption around the age of retirement that is difficult to explain with life cycle models using food consumption data from more than 550 households from the panel study of income dynamics for the years 1979 1986 and 1989 1992 we find that married couple households decrease their expenditures on both food consumed at home and away from home by about 9 following the retirement of the male household head no significant decrease in consumption is found for single households either in a sample of males or a pooled sample of single males and females these results are consistent with a model of marital bargaining in which wives prefer to save more than their husbands do to support an expected longer retirement period and relative control over household decisions is affected by control over market income the pattern of the consumption decline which is increasing in the age gap between husband and wife lends further support to this interpretation

self enforcing contracts shirking and life cycle incentives he labor market is a rich and complicated place when a worker takes a job he expects to earn a wage but will also care about rates of wage growth fringe benefits levels of risk retirement practices pensions promotion and layoff rules seniority rights and grievance procedures in return the worker must give up some time but he is also asked to upgrade his skills train other workers provide effort and ideas and defer to authority in questions of how his time is spent great changes are occurring in the way labor market institutions such as these are modelled central to the new approach is the concept of a self enforcing implicit contract this is the latest in a series of variations on the ideas of azariadis 1975 baily 1974 and gordon 1974 and is one of the more exciting new developments in the theory of labor markets this essay will outline this approach and evaluate some of its accomplishments the ideas will be presented in the context of an incentive model that is of some independent interest the model was introduced by becker and stigler 1974 and was extended by lazear 1979 to account for wage growth and mandatory retirement in these papers the workers retire at a fixed age lending the name life cycle incentives to the approach more recently shapiro and stiglitz 1984 have used a version without a fixed retirement date to account for unemployment this version is often called the shirking model these models have generated some controversy but much of it can be resolved when the models are presented in the framework of self enforcing contracts in fact this simple incentive model can do even more it can provide a rationale for competitive hierarchies where firms place their workers in competition with

imperfect information and the theory of government intervention in farm credit markets this paper describes some possible economic motivations for government intervention in farm credit markets these motivations are made possible by explicit departures from the perfect information and complete market assumptions that underlie both the neoclassical competitive paradigm and the fundamental theorems of welfare economics to be more precise the analysis focuses on three types of asymmetric information between farmers and prospective outside investors both of whom are assumed to be risk neutral arguably the three informational asymmetries examined here represent natural departures from perfect markets in that unlike the unencumbered neoclassical model each elicits farmers optimal use of debt contracts rather than equity instruments or other contractual forms to raise investment capital despite their consistency with observed contractual choices all three of the models analyzed below yield free market equilibria that diverge from first best perfect information outcomes given the inefficiency of these market equilibria the key question raised and discussed here is can government improve upon the derived competitive outcomes and if so how despite the enormity of the credit rationing literature only a few extant studies address this question in models that are consistent with debt contracts among them are demeza and webb 1987 1988 1989 and innes 1988 which focus on the third type of informational asymmetry considered below the other two information structures posited in this paper have been studied in several analyses of credit markets but with attention focused on positive attributes of the unfettered competitive equilibrium rather than on prospective implications for welfare enhancing government intervention in what follows th s literature is surveyed and for the first two information structures some new policy results a e presented a critical discussion of the paper s limitations concludes the article

consumption during retirement the missing link in the life cycle this study presents the first evidence on the relation of consumption to lifetime wealth based on data from the 1973 and 1975 retirement history survey that have been linked to social security earnings records nearly 500 white married fully retired couples ages 62 69 form the basis of the analysis on average their consumption early in retirement exceeds by 14 percent the income that their financial pension and social security wealth can generate this implies that their saving both private and through social security is insufficient to sustain consumption throughout the rest of their lives additional evidence based on changes in spending between 1973 and 1975 shows that these households respond by reducing their real consumption at a rate sufficient to generate positive changes in net financial worth within a few years after retirement these two pieces of evidence can be rationalized by a rate of time preference much higher than the interest rate coupled with either a bequest motive or uncertainty about the length of life they also imply that even when combined with private pensions and savings social security in the united states today does not enable most recipients to maintain their living standard at the levels they enjoyed before they retired this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

supply fundamentals and grain futures price movements a long standing puzzle in commodity markets is the low explanatory power of supply and demand fundamentals for explaining the variability of prices in these markets we apply an instrumental variable correction for measurement errors to investigate how noise in the surprise component of usda crop production reports affects estimated price responses in corn soybeans and wheat futures markets from 1970 to 2016 our findings demonstrate that after correcting for measurement error in market surprises the explanatory power of our models increases about threefold and often exceeds 70 this is compelling evidence that fundamental supply news play an important role in explaining grain futures price movements

altruism reciprocity and health a social experiment in restaurant choice abstract we used an experimental game to determine whether people imitate restaurant choice reciprocate food gifts and thus spread health choices we randomly paired 138 subjects and recorded their decision to give or keep restaurant vouchers and their choice of restaurant the majority 83 3 chose an unhealthy restaurant if their randomly assigned partner chose an unhealthy restaurant similarly 77 8 chose a healthy restaurant if their partner did p 0 005 the altruistic were more likely to choose a healthy restaurant p 0 017 in sum restaurant choice is influenced by reciprocity a cycle of projection gifting and reciprocation may explain the social dynamics of food choice we propose policies that capitalize on people s tendency towards altruism and imitation

gift giving and worker productivity evidence from a firm level experiment abstract we present results from a field experiment designed to measure worker response to a monetary gift from their employer the experiment took place inside a tree planting firm paying its workforce incentive contracts firm managers told a crew of tree planters they would receive a pay raise for one day as a result of a surplus not attributable to past planting productivity we compare planter productivity the number of trees planted per day on the day the gift was handed out with productivity on previous and subsequent days of planting on the same block and thus under similar planting conditions we find direct evidence that the gift had a significant and positive effect on daily planter productivity controlling for planter fixed effects weather conditions and other random daily shocks

workers compensation and consumption smoothing abstract this paper investigates the consumption smoothing benefits of state workers compensation wc programs these programs are among the largest and most controversial forms of social insurance with the putative purpose of supporting families affected by unexpected income shocks due to workplace injuries and illnesses using health and retirement study hrs data for a sample of workers who have experienced a work related work limiting disability i find that a 10 increase in wc benefit generosity offsets the drop in household consumption upon injury by 3 to 5 moreover my estimates imply that if benefits were very low the drop in consumption upon injury would be in the range of 30 a model adapted from the literature on optimal social insurance yields a formula for the optimal level of wc benefits which depends on empirical estimates of the consumption smoothing parameter my calculations suggest that current wc benefit levels are somewhat higher than optimal

asymmetry of customer loss and recovery under endogenous partnerships theory and evidence this article is inspired by real world phenomena that firms lose customers based on imprecise information and take a long time to recover if consumers are playing an ordinary repeated game with fixed partners there is no clear reason why recovery happens slowly however if consumers are playing an endogenously repeated game a class of simple efficient equilibria exhibits the asymmetry of fast loss and slow recovery of customers after a bad signal exit is systematic but formation of a new partnership is random we also give empirical evidence of our equilibria at an individual firm level

union contracts and the life cycle permanent income hypothesis this paper isolates households in the psid whose heads can be matched to particular long term union contracts with high confidence the author uses use published information on these contracts to construct a household specific measure of expected wage growth he finds that predictable wage movements are significantly correlated with consumption changes contrary to neoclassical consumption theory the author finds that consumption responds more strongly to predictable income declines than to predictable income increases this asymmetry is inconsistent with liquidity constraints and myopia but is qualitatively consistent with models in which preferences exhibit loss aversion copyright 1995 by american economic association

group consumption free riding and informal reciprocity agreements we examine conditions under which group consumption is likely to involve informal reciprocity agreements rather than a price system our model shows that reciprocity agreements are used when transactions costs are high the good is inexpensive demand is inelastic the group continues to interact over time the consumers are patient the time between interactions is short and the group is small and homogeneous further the results suggest that reciprocity agreements are likely to involve goods that are consumed along with other group benefits such as companionship we use the model to analyze overlapping social networks and investments in social capital

voluntarily separable repeated prisoner s dilemma ordinary repeated games do not apply to real societies where one can cheat and run away from partners we formulate a model of endogenous relationships which one can unilaterally end and start with a randomly assigned new partner with no information flow focusing on two person two action prisoner s dilemma we show that the endogenous duration of partnerships gives rise to a significantly dierent evolutionary stability structure from the ordinary evolutionary games monomorphic equilibria require initial trust building while a polymorphic equilibrium includes early cooperators than any strategy in monomorphic equilibria and is thus more ecient this

farm debt default and foreclosure an economic rationale for policy action economic analysis of farm programs typically focusses on economic costs here we show that because of market failures and imperfections there are possible economic benefits to be derived from programs which reduce or eliminate the threat of default and foreclosure a production model of an indebted firm is developed and serves as a basis for an aggregate model which identifies possible costs and benefits from a program of transfers to indebted farmers the challenge facing policy makers is to design programs which capture the benefits of reducing the probability of default while minimizing perverse incentive effects of such programs

in search of welfare improving gifts gift giving is thought to decrease welfare recipients are sometimes stuck with gifts they would not have purchased because the giver does not perfectly know the recipient s preferences and in kind gifts cannot be costlessly refunded such gifts are welfare reducing compared to giving cash if in addition recipients possess full information as to which stores carry their desired goods and the ability to reach these stores costlessly we replace these two latter assumptions with the more realistic assumptions of uncertainty about the location of goods and search costs in contrast to existing economic models gifts in our model enhance expected welfare moreover gift giving cannot be replaced by a profit maximizing trader nor the introduction of nearby specialty stores carrying gift goods we use our model to explain a number of stylized facts about gift giving the organization of retail trade and in kind government transfers 2008 elsevier b v all rights reserved

forced gifts the burden of being a friend abstract in many developing countries gift expenses escalate with income growth and account for a substantial share of household expenditure we develop a theoretical model to demonstrate how unequal income growth may trigger gift competition and drive up the financial burden associated with gift exchange we use unique census type panel data from rural china to test our model predictions and demonstrate that 1 the value of gifts responds to the average gift in the community 2 the escalation of gift giving may have adverse welfare implications especially for the poor and 3 escalating gift expenses crowd out expenditures on other consumption items

rational expectations informational efficiency and tests using survey data a reply even if it does not eliminate them completely the primary effect of using individual expectations data rather than cross sectional averages as a regressor is to introduce additional measurement error finally the distinction between rational expectations and full informational efficiency is more than a semantic one the failure to make this distinction seems to be the cause of substantial confusion in the literature the distinction has become increasingly important with the advent of rational expectations macroeconomic models see lucas 1973 barro 1976 which are driven by imperfections and asymmetries of information yet in which each economic agent is assumed to process rationally the information he possesses in particular empirical tests which depend upon full informational efficiency can provide little evidence on the validity of the rational expectations hypothesis as that term has come to be used in macroeconomics

too good to fire non assortative matching to play a dynamic game abstract we model stable non assortative labor market matchings we endogenize how transferable utility is a matched firm and worker play an infinite horizon game with one sided moral hazard becker s 1973 result that complementarity yields positively assortative matching fails because increasing match quality harms dynamic incentives a firm cannot credibly threaten to fire a worker who is productive even with low effort thus firms may prefer lower type workers who will exert more effort we offer a new interpretation of efficiency wages committing to a high wage improves effort incentives indirectly by increasing the firm s willingness to walk away we also show that the set of stable outcomes has a lattice structure

household allocations and endogenous information the case of split migrants in kenya abstract one of the main elements separating different models of intrahousehold allocations is the household information set this paper tests for the endogeneity of the household information set in a context where household members cannot observe each other easily spousal information in the context of split urban migration in kenya based on unique data it finds that split migrant couples in the nairobi slums invest considerable resources into information acquisition substituting visits monitoring by siblings and budget submissions before remitting comparisons of pre marital search characteristics between current split and joint migrants are consistent with the hypothesis that those anticipating split migration change their marital search behavior to mitigate the consequences of pending imperfect information

social capital and growth we define and characterize social capital in a simple growth model we capture social capital in a model where individuals in a community maximize their lifetime gains to trade each trade between two members of a community has the structure of the prisoners dilemma trades are repeated indefinitely but not necessarily each period social capital is defined as the social structure which facilitates cooperative trade as an equilibrium the trading model is incorporated into a growth model to explore the connections between growth labor mobility and social capital the key assumption is that technological innovation which drives growth involves a reallocation of labor that affects social capital modifying the responsiveness of labor to a technological shock has implications for both labor efficiency and social capital

the magic of the personal touch field experimental evidence on money appreciation as gifts this paper makes use of two field experiments to explore individual effort responses to gifts we extend the literature by looking at nonfinancial gifts and gifts that combine financial and nonfinancial elements with or without adding a personal touch we find that non pecuniary gifts that signal worker appreciation induce reciprocity most importantly we find that there are interaction effects between money and appreciation while money and appreciation are individually effective they only work well together when they are combined with a personal touch this points to the importance of interpersonal elements in gift giving and has important implications for how to effectively elicit worker effort

earnings expectations revisions and realizations during the spring and the fall of 1993 respondents to a national household survey were asked to report expectations of spring 1994 weekly earnings elicited in the form of subjective probabilities these data are potentially much more informative than are typical reports of economic expectations subjective probability distributions of future weekly earnings are estimated for each respondent based on his or her reports of a series of subjective probabilities this paper analyzes the cross sectional variation in expectations revisions of expectations between the spring and the fall of 1993 and the relationship between 1993 expectations and the distribution of spring 1994 earnings realizations generally positive findings on the validity of the data bode well for the prospects of eliciting expectations in future surveys

do retirement dreams come true the effect of unanticipated events on retirement plans analyzing data from the retirement history study the authors find that the retirement plans of male workers aged 58 63 in 1969 were significantly affected by unanticipated events over the next decade specifically unanticipated increases in social security wealth induced retirement earlier than originally planned as did deterioration in personal health whereas the recession of the 1970s tended to delay retirement this evidence that policy changes do affect retirement behavior in systematic ways provides support for the decision by congress to defer until the turn of the century the application of several important provisions of the 1983 amendments to the social security act

the retirement consumption conundrum evidence from a consumption survey abstract recent studies have shown that food consumption declines at retirement we use broader definitions of consumption from the consumer expenditure survey and find that the so called retirement consumption puzzle is solved by using comprehensive consumption data

the retirement consumption puzzle evidence from a regression discontinuity approach in this paper we investigate the size of the consumption drop at retirement in italy we use micro data on food and total non durable household spending covering the period 1993 2004 and evaluate the change in consumption that accompanies retirement by exploiting the exogenous variability in pension eligibility to correct for the endogenous nature of the retirement decision we take a regression discontinuity design approach and make the identifying assumption that consumption would be the same around the threshold for pension eligibility if individuals would not retire we check in our data that a non negligible fraction of individuals retire as soon as they become eligible and estimate at 9 8 the part of the non durable consumption drop that is associated with retirement induced by eligibility we show that such fall is not driven by liquidity problems for the less well off in the population and can be accounted for by drops in goods that are work related expenses or leisure substitutes however we also show that retirement induces a significant drop in the number of grown children living with their parents and this can account for most of the retirement consumption drop

the retirement consumption puzzle in china abstract using data from china s urban household survey and exploiting china s mandatory retirement policy we use the regression discontinuity approach to estimate the impact of retirement on household expenditures retirement reduces total non durable expenditures by 20 percent among the categories of non durable expenditures retirement reduces work related expenditures and expenditures on food consumed at home but has an insignificant effect on entertainment expenditures after excluding these three components retirement does not have an effect on the remaining non durable expenditures it suggests that the retirement consumption puzzle might not be a puzzle if a life cycle model with home production is considered

strategic behavior and marriage payments theory and evidence from senegal abstract this article proposes an original theory of marriage payments based on insights gained from firsthand information collected in the senegal river valley this theory postulates that decisions about the bride price which are made by the bride s father take into account the likely effects of the amount set on the risk of ill treatment of the wife and the risk of marriage failure based on a sequential game with three players the bride s father the husband and the wife and a matching process it leads to a number of important predictions that are tested against senegalese data relating to bride prices and various characteristics of women the empirical results confirm that parents behave strategically by keeping bride prices down so as to reduce the risk of marriage failure for their daughters other interesting effects on marriage payments and the probability of separation are also highlighted stressing the role of the bride s bargaining power in her own family

retirement and consumption in a life cycle model consumption expenditure declines sharply at the time of retirement for many households but the majority maintain a smooth consumption path a simple life cycle model with uncertainty about the time of retirement can account for this pattern a richer version of the model is calibrated to data from the health and retirement study hrs the median change in consumption expenditure at retirement generated by the model is zero while the mean is negative matching the hrs data however the magnitude of the drop in consumption among households that experience a decline is too small in the model compared to the data

knowledge barter in cities abstract since marshall principles of economics 1890 macmillan london it has been common for economists to model knowledge transfers as exogenous spillovers however there are many instances of knowledge transfers that are deliberate and reciprocal this paper models these endogenous knowledge transfers and shows that endogenous knowledge barter is fundamentally different than exogenous spillovers holding city size fixed we show that knowledge transfers may arise as a kind of barter when the value of knowledge is verifiable ex ante knowledge barter can also take place when the value of the knowledge transferred is verifiable only ex post if the interaction is repeated and if discount rates are not too high however the sustainability of knowledge barter depends crucially on city size when city size is large it is easier for an agent who withholds knowledge to go unpunished this means that the sustainable level of knowledge barter is smaller in a large city this result suggests that the knowledge agglomeration relationship is non monotonic the loss of cooperative knowledge exchange that occurs as city size grows can be a limit to optimum and equilibrium city sizes

the sensitivity of consumption to transitory income estimates from panel data on households we investigate the stochastic relation between income and consumption specifically consumption of food within a panel of about 2 000 households our major findings are 1 consumption responds much more strongly to permanent than to transitory movements of income 2 the response to transitory income is nonetheless clearly positive 3 a simple test independent of our model of consumption rejects a central implication of the pure life cycle permanent income hypothesis the observed covariation of income and consumption is compatible with pure life cycle permanent income behavior on the part of80 percent of families and simple proportionality of consumption and income among the remaining 20 percent as a general matter our findings support the view that families respond differently to different sources of income variations in particular temporary income tax policies have smaller effects on consumption than do other more permanent changes in income of the same magnitude this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

leave and let leave a sufficient condition to explain the evolutionary emergence of cooperation the option to leave your current partner in response to his behavior also known as conditional dissociation is a mechanism that has been shown to promote the emergence and stability of cooperation in many social interactions this mechanism nevertheless has always been studied in combination with other factors that are known to support cooperation by themselves in this paper we isolate the effect of conditional dissociation on the evolution of cooperation and show that this mechanism is enough to sustain a significant level of cooperation if the expected lifetime of individuals is sufficiently long 2014 elsevier b v all rights reserved

health status and health dynamics in an empirical model of expected longevity expected longevity is an important factor influencing older individuals decisions such as consumption savings purchase of life insurance and annuities claiming of social security benefits and labor supply it has also been shown to be a good predictor of actual longevity which in turn is highly correlated with health status a relatively new literature on health investments under uncertainty which builds upon the seminal work by grossman grossman m 1972 on the concept of health capital and demand for health journal of political economy 80 223 255 has directly linked longevity with characteristics behaviors and decisions by utility maximizing agents our empirical model can be understood within that theoretical framework as estimating a production function of longevity using longitudinal data from the health and retirement study we directly incorporate health dynamics in explaining the variation in expected longevities and compare two alternative measures of health dynamics the self reported health change and the computed health change based on self reports of health status in 38 of the reports in our sample computed health changes are inconsistent with the direct report on health changes over time and another 15 of the sample can suffer from information losses if computed changes are used to assess changes in actual health these potentially serious problems raise doubts regarding the use and interpretation of the computed health changes and even the lagged measures of self reported health as controls for health dynamics in a variety of empirical settings our empirical results controlling for both subjective and objective measures of health status and unobserved heterogeneity in reporting suggest that self reported health changes are a preferred measure of health dynamics

an evolutionary approach to pre play communication we add a round of pre play communication to a finite two player game played by a population of players pre play communication is cheap talk in the sense that it does not directly enter the payoffs the paper characterizes the set of strategies that are stable with respect to a stochastic dynamic adaptive process periodically players have an opportunity to change their strategy with a strategy that is more successful against the current population any strategy that weakly improves upon the current poorest performer in the population enters with positive probability when there is no conflict of interest between the players only the efficient outcome is stable with respect to these dynamics for general games the set of stable payoffs is typically large every efficient payoff recurs infinitely often

to aggregate pool or neither it is well known that even if all forecasters are rational unbiasedness tests using consensus forecasts are inconsistent because forecasters have private information however if all forecasters face a common realization pooled estimators are also inconsistent in contrast we show that when predictions and realizations are integrated and cointegrated microhomogeneity ensures that consensus and pooled estimators are consistent therefore contrary to claims in the literature in the absence of microhomogeneity pooling is not a solution to the aggregation problem we reject microhomogeneity for a number of forecasts from the survey of professional forecasters therefore for these variables unbiasedness can only be tested at the individual level

if homo economicus could choose his own utility function would he want one with a conscience reply in my model of the evolution of honesty 1 i assumed the existence of a signal a blush perhaps extreme values of which served to identify some individuals as being honest with certainty joseph harrington notes that without this assumption honest individuals have difficulty invading a population initially dominated by defectors for readers who do not wish to work through the algebra in his comment the argument is easily summarized in nontechnical terms suppose two honest mutants a and b arrive in an uncountably large population consisting entirely of dishonest persons and suppose that the probability that an honest person exhibits an intense blush is say 0 999 while the corresponding probability for everyone else is only 0 001 when a sees an intense blush on the face of b what will then be his estimate of the probability that b is honest assuming that a knows the laws of elementary probability and corrects for the base rate of honest persons in the population it will be zero when virtually everyone in the population is dishonest even a person with an intense blush will be pegged as dishonest provided that even the smallest fraction of dishonest persons also shows an intense blush with

what accounts for the variation in retirement wealth among u s households even among households with similar socioeconomic characteristics saving and wealth vary considerably life cycle models attribute this variation to differences in time preference rates risk tolerance exposure to uncertainty relative tastes for work and leisure at advanced ages and income replacement rates these factors have testable implications concerning the relation between accumulated wealth and the shape of the consumption profile using the panel study of income dynamics and the consumer expenditure survey we find little support for these implications the data are instead consistent with rule of thumb mental accounting or hyperbolic discounting theories of wealth accumulation jel di d91 e21

consumption retirement and social security evaluating the efficiency of reform that encourages longer careers abstract this paper proposes and analyzes a social security reform in which individuals no longer face the oasi payroll tax after say age 54 or a career of 34 years and their subsequent earnings have no bearing on their benefits we first estimate parameters of a life cycle model our specification includes non separable preferences and possible disability it predicts a consumption expenditure change at retirement we use the magnitude of the expenditure change together with households retirement age decisions to identify key structural parameters the estimated magnitude of the change in consumption expenditure depends importantly on the treatment of consumption by adult children of the household simulations indicate that the reform could increase retirement ages one year or more equivalent variations could average more than 4000 per household and income tax revenues per household could increase by more than 14 000

the optimal degree of cooperation in the repeated prisoners dilemma with side payments abstract in the infinitely repeated prisoners dilemma with side payments we characterize the pareto frontier of the set of subgame perfect equilibrium payoffs for all possible combinations of discount factors play paths implementing pareto dominant equilibrium payoffs are uniquely determined in all but the first period full cooperation does not necessarily implement these payoffs even when it maximizes total stage game payoffs rather when the difference in players discount factors is sufficiently large pareto dominant equilibrium payoffs are implemented by partial cooperation supported by repeated payments from the impatient to the patient player when both players are sufficiently patient such payoffs while implemented via full cooperation are supported by repeated payments from the impatient to the patient player we characterize conditions under which public randomization has no impact on the pareto dominant equilibrium payoffs and conditions under which such payoffs are robust to renegotiation

forecasting retirement needs and retirement wealth drawing on the latest information available on health wealth and retirement in america this work offers new perspectives on ways to support the expanding population of older citizens

insolvency in agriculture bad managers or the common agricultural policy bad management is often blamed for the failure of firms yet an empirical investigation of the annual rate of insolvency in agriculture and horticulture in england and wales revealed a relationship with the price of land the rate of insolvency was negatively related to the current price of land but the lag structure estimated suggests that the rate of insolvency could be positively related to the land price two years previously this result is in accordance with a theoretical model which shows that the optimal gearing strategy under rising land prices induces farmers to increase their indebtedness since common agricultural policy price support has become capitalized into land prices this suggests that some of the insolvency in agriculture and horticulture was the result of previous agricultural policy the results do however underline farm management advice that farmers should beware of relying on capital gains to remain in business

the structure of expectations of the weekly money supply announcement abstract this paper examines the structure of expectations of the weekly money supply announcement in the late 1970s the data used are from a weekly telephone survey of money market participants the rationality and structure of expectations are explored with the data organized in three ways the mean response to each weekly survey the pooled sample of individual responses and time series of responses by each individual in the survey the effect of data aggregation on rationality tests is investigated the structure of the expectations data are also examined and it is found that both strong regressive influences and adaptive learning characterize the data

anticipation of future consumption a monetary perspective we adapt the monetary model sidrauski 1967 to study the hypothesis of anticipation of future consumption we assume that anticipation of future consumption affects an agent s instantaneous utility and that all effects of future consumption on current well being are captured by the stock of future consumption monetary policy effectiveness is thereby reduced and a zero nominal lower interest rate and thus the friedman rule is destabilizing given this we can derive a just stable equilibrium nominal interest rate with matching definitions for inflation and monetary growth we demonstrate that these implied lower bounds match their historical analogues well

why do retired workers claim their social security benefits so early a potential explanation based on the cumulative prospect theory abstractsocial security provides longevity insurance for older americans according to expected utility theory models rational households who are not liquidity constrained should delay claiming th

consumption and real exchange rates in professional forecasts standard models of international risk sharing with complete asset markets predict a positive association between relative consumption growth and real exchange rate depreciations across countries the striking lack of evidence for this link the consumption realexchange rate anomaly or backus smith puzzle has prompted research on risk sharing indicators with incomplete asset markets that research generally implies that the association holds in forecasts rather than realizations using professional forecasts for 28 countries for 1990 2008 we find no such association thus deepening the puzzle independent evidence on the weak link between forecasts for consumption and real interest rates suggests that the presence of hand to mouth consumers may help to explain the evidence

theft gift giving and trustworthiness honesty is its own reward in rural paraguay in developing countries lacking legal enforcement villagers may use implicit contracts to minimize crime i construct a dynamic limited commitment model in which a thief cannot commit to forego stealing but is induced to steal less by the promise of future gifts combining survey data on production theft gifts and trust with experiments measuring trustworthiness i provide supporting evidence farmers living near more relatives or with plots that are difficult to steal from give fewer gifts and trust more and those living near more relatives also experience less theft giving increases when trust is lower and the threat of theft is greater

on the use of expectations data in estimating structural dynamic choice models despite the importance of expectations in models of decision behavior under uncertainty few empirical economists have made use of subjective expectations data in estimating such models assuming that expectations about future behavior accurately portray optimal future behavior conditional on current information it is shown that such data can provide similar information about the decision process as can data on current or retrospective behavior the value of self reported choice expectations is illustrated by using information on respondents expected future occupation in the estimation of a structural dynamic model of teacher career decisions under uncertainty

the rationality of retirement expectations and the role of new information this paper tests the rationality of retirement expectations controlling for sample selection and reporting biases we find that retirement expectations in the health and retirement study are consistent with the rational expectations hypothesis we also analyze how new information affects the evolution of retirement expectations and discover that on average individuals correctly anticipate most uncertain events when planning their retirement except for some health shocks the need for additional private health coverage and the probability of a job change our results support a wide variety of models in economics that assume rational behavior

is there a retirement consumption puzzle in japan evidence from a household panel dataset spanning several years using a unique long run panel of japanese households this paper examines the changes in consumption at retirement the retirement consumption puzzle our analysis shows that households expendi

is there a retirement consumption puzzle evidence using subjective retirement expectations abstract previous research finds a systematic decrease in consumption at retirement a finding that is inconsistent with the life cycle permanent income hypothesis if retirement is an expected event in this paper we use workers subjective beliefs about their retirement dates as an instrument for retirement after demonstrating that subjective retirement expectations are strong predictors of subsequent retirement decisions we still find a consumption decline at retirement for workers who retire when expected however our estimates of this consumption fall are about a third less than those found when we instead rely on the instrumental variables strategy used in prior studies

consumption versus expenditure previous authors have documented a dramatic decline in food expenditures at the time of retirement we show that this is matched by an equally dramatic rise in time spent shopping for and preparing meals using a novel data set that collects detailed food diaries for a large cross section of u s households we show that neither the quality nor the quantity of food intake deteriorates with retirement status we also show that unemployed households experience a decline in food expenditure and food consumption commensurate with the impact of job displacement on permanent income these results highlight how direct measures of consumption distinguish between anticipated and unanticipated shocks to income whereas measures of expenditures obscure the distinction

crash and wait the impact of the great recession on the retirement plans of older americans this study uses data from pre and post crash surveys from the cognitive economics study to examine the impact of recent stock and labor market wealth losses on the planned retirement ages of older americans regression estimates imply that the average wealth loss between july 2008 and may june 2009 is associated with an increase in planned retirement age of approximately 2 5 months furthermore pessimism about future stock market returns is found to amplify the impact of wealth losses on retirement timing

is there a retirement savings puzzle in this paper we ask whether households are saving enough for their retirement we use data on income expenditure and expenditure components to analyse patterns of behaviour at and around the time of retirement for successive date of birth cohorts we compare periods of unemployment to periods of retirement and separate expenditures into categories reflecting work related expenditures basic necessities and other goods we find that income typically falls by more at unemployment than retirement but the reverse is true for expenditure we observe falls in expenditure at retirement for all expenditure categories using a stochastic life cycle model including mortality rates we assess the anticipated impact of retirement on consumption against that of unemployment the inter relationship between goods and leisure explains a large part of the persistent fall in expenditure at retirement we argue that the only way in which the life cycle hypothesis could be reconciled with the remaining unanticipated dip in consumption would be with the systematic arrival of unexpected adverse information at the time of retirement