union coverage and profitability among u s firms this paper utilizes unique survey data on labor union coverage at the firm level to examine union effects on the profitability of 705 u s companies during the 1970s market value and earnings are estimated to be about 10 15 percent lower in an average unionized company than in a nonunion company following extensive control for firm and industry characteristics deleterious union effects on firm profitability are sizable throughout the 1972 80 period but vary considerably across industries the relatively poor profit performance of unionized companies may help explain the recent decline in u s union membership the author thanks the w e upjohn institute for employment research for financial support elizabeth gregory for assistance with the union coverage survey zvi griliches for providing access to the rd donald deere terry seaks and anonymous referees for helpful suggestions and seminar participants at connecticut florida state harvard texas a m and william and mary for comments on earlier versions of this research

dynamic corn supply functions a model with explicit optimization both static and dynamic models have been used to estimate aggregate supply elasticities for annual crops the early studies relied on static singleequation models in a few variables assumed static price expectations e g kohls and paarlberg and produced very small estimates of own price supply elasticities e g 0 07 for corn nerlove 1956 1958a and nerlove and addison showed that agricultural supply models incorporating adaptive price expectations and or dynamic resource adjustment produced larger estimates of supply elasticities for corn and other agricultural commodities additionally they showed that supply elasticities obtained from static models need not be bounded by the short run and long run supply elasticities of

on monoculture and the structure of crop rotations an issue when seeking to identify rotation choice is persistence in yield enhancement and input saving carry over effects focusing on carry over length and the monoculture decision we use quasi convexity of choice functions to develop price independent and price dependent principles concerning rotation structure iowa corn soybean rotation data suggest corn has one year memory for corn soybeans in the prior year is yield increasing 16 5 bu ac and nitrogen saving 51 lb ac the hypothesis that soybean has two year memory cannot be rejected corn in the prior year two years increases yield by 7 bu ac 11 6 bu ac we simulate to find price and practice subsidy levels that support different rotations

migrants in a guest worker system a utility maximizing approach this paper examines the behavior of utility maximizing migrants in a system of guest worker migration their pattern of leisure and commodity consumption at home and abroad is analysed and related

buyer power with atomistic upstream entry can downstream consolidation increase production and welfare abstract this paper investigates the effects of buyer power on entry into an atomistic upstream market and economic welfare under reasonable market conditions we show that industries with a few buyers induce more upstream entry than industries with a larger number of firms in particular monopsony can be more conducive to entry and lead to higher social welfare than more fragmented industry structures this seeming paradox arises because a single buyer better internalizes the positive effects of entry on later periods supply conditions than a collection of firms this result is relevant in a number of market settings including markets for specialized labor and processing markets for agricultural products

a rational expectations model of agricultural supply this work suggests a dynamic linear rational expectations modeling strategy for using time series observations to study the impact of product prices on agricultural production and land allocation the farmer s decision consists of specifying each period the portion of his land to be devoted to the growing of alternative crops the dynamic element in the farmer s problem comes from the technology a quadratic production technology is used the farmer s optimal land allocation decision rules are derived as linear functions of past land allocations expectations of future product prices and other exogenous variables and they can be interpreted as an optimal crop rotation assuming rational expectations and the exogeneity of prices for a small open economy one obtains closed form linear regression equations representing decision rules and stochastic processes these are then estimated and tested using maximum likelihood methods and aggregate data from the egyptian agriculture

union negotiations and corporate policy a study of labor concessions in the domestic steel industry during the 1980s abstract this paper studies managerial compensation financial reporting and dividend policies of the seven major domestic steel producers during requests for union concessions substantial layoffs reported losses and sacrifices by nonunion stakeholders buttressed managers case for union concessions from 1980 to 1988 sample firms reduced their work force by about 300 000 almost two thirds and annual wage payments from 16 1 to 8 6 billion reported income is lower during union negotiations controlling for cash flows as is managerial pay with average ceo salary plus bonus declining 18 dividend reductions and white collar pay cuts are substantial pervasive and clustered during union negotiations

compensating differentials for cyclical and noncyclical unemployment the interaction between investors and employees risk aversion this paper integrates the labor and assets markets equilibria to determine and evaluate the wage differentials generated for cyclical and noncyclical risks of unemployment the relative wage differential is a linear function of unemployment risk measured by the covariance of an index of employment with the rate of change in aggregate output seniority and the hoarding of skilled labor are characteristics of minimum cost contracts because employees with more human capital prefer safer jobs empirical results suggest that a 14 41 wage differential can be explained by interindustry differences in unemployment risks

the renewable fuel standard in competitive equilibrium market and welfare effects we construct a tractable multi market equilibrium model designed to evaluate alternative biofuel policies the model integrates the u s agricultural sector with the energy sector and it explicitly considers both u s ethanol and biodiesel production the model provides a structural representation of the renewable fuel standard rfs policies and it uses the arbitrage conditions defining the core value of renewable identification number prices to identify the relevant competitive equilibrium conditions the model is parameterized based on elasticities and technical coefficients from the literature to represent observed 2015 data the model is simulated to analyze alternative scenarios including repeal of the rfs projected 2022 rfs mandates and optimal second best mandates the results confirm that the current rfs program considerably benefits the agriculture sector but also leads to overall welfare gains for the united states mostly via beneficial terms of trade effects implementation of projected 2022 mandates which would require further expansion of biodiesel production would lead to a considerable welfare loss relative to 2015 mandate levels constrained second best optimal mandates would entail more corn based ethanol and less biodiesel than currently mandated

unionization and profitability evidence of spillover effects ruback and zimmerman s 1984 event study which showed that formal union organizing activity significantly lowers a firm s market value provides compelling evidence that unionization reduces a firm s profitability union organizing activity may also have sizable cross firm or spillover effects on the performance of neighboring firms thus the total impact of union organizing on the wealth of firm owners may be substantially understated by focusing only on the firm in which the union organizing activity occurs this paper presents an alternative approach for estimating union spillover effects on profitability using a data set and methodology similar to ruback and zimmerman s we find that the total negative effects of unionization on profits after cross firm or spillover effects are included are nearly three times as large as the own firm effects reported by ruback and zimmerman the hypothesis that changes in unionization have spillover effects on nonunion firms is well known formal union organizing activity at one firm may increase the threat of unionization at other firms neighboring firms may respond to the greater threat of unionization

valuing product innovation genetically engineered varieties in us corn and soybeans we develop a discrete choice model of differentiated products for us corn and soybean seed demand to study the welfare impact of genetically engineered ge crop varieties using a unique data set spanning the period 1996 2011 we find that the welfare impact of the ge innovation is significant in the last five years of the period analyzed our preferred counterfactual indicates that total surplus due to ge traits was 5 18 billion per year with seed manufacturers appropriating 56 of this surplus the seed industry obtained more surplus from ge corn whereas farmers received more surplus from ge soybeans

human capital bankruptcy and capital structure we derive a firm s optimal capital structure and managerial compensation contract when employees are averse to bearing their own human capital risk while equity holders can diversify this risk away in the presence of corporate taxes our model delivers optimal debt levels consistent with those observed in practice it also makes a number of predictions for the cross sectional distribution of firm leverage consistent with existing empirical evidence it implies persistent idiosyncratic dierences in leverage across firms an important new empirical prediction of the model is that ceteris paribus firms with more leverage should pay higher wages

the impact of labor unions on investment cash flow sensitivity abstract this paper empirically examines how labor unions affect investment cash flow sensitivity using samples from the us covering the period of 1984 2009 we find a significant positive union effect using a q model of investment the capital expenditures of firms are 1 71 times more sensitive to internal cash flows when unionization rates increase one standard deviation from the mean this effect holds when we control for other proxies of financial constraints in addition unionized firms are associated with lower cash cash flow sensitivity which suggests that the higher investment cash flow sensitivity in unionized firms is primarily driven by the incentive of these firms to reduce liquidity and enhance bargaining power against the union we also show that the above union effects become more pronounced during labor contract negotiation years

modeling heterogeneous farm responses to european union biofuel support with a random parameter multicrop model although there is now widespread evidence of substantial variability in economic agents responses to economic drivers in many applied economics fields this variability has been largely overlooked by econometric agricultural production models this article sets out to fill this gap by providing methodological contributions and empirical results first we consider panel data multicrop models featuring random intercept and slope parameters to account for the heterogeneous responses of crop producers to economic drivers second we show that monte carlo expectation maximization algorithms are particularly well suited to estimating this type of model third based on an application of our empirical modeling framework with a sample of french grain crop producers we demonstrate substantial variability in farmers responses to economic incentives fourth we use the estimated model and a simple statistical calibration procedure to build farm specific simulation models which are then used to evaluate the effects of the rapeseed price increase induced by european union eu biofuel support our simulation results demonstrate that ignoring the variability in the considered farmers responses to the economic incentives results in significant overestimation of the increases in rapeseed yield levels and variable input use levels induced by eu biofuel support as well as significant underestimation of the variability in the congruent increases in rapeseed acreages

what impact does the choice of formula have on international comparisons in this paper an empirical comparison of a number of alternative multilateral index number formulae is undertaken the magnitude of the effect of choosing one formula over another is ascertained using an appropriate cross sectional data set constructed under the auspices of the eurostat oecd purchasing power parity programme to this end a new indicator is proposed that facilitates the measurement of the difference between two sets of bloc consumption shares each computed using a different multilateral comparison method jel classification c31 c43 c81 e31 f31 o57 quel impact est ce que le choix des formules a sur les comparaisons internationales ce memoire propose une comparaison empirique d un certain nombre de formules de nombres indices multilateraux on tente de jauger la magnitude de l impact du choix d une formule plutot qu une autre en utilisant une base de donnees transversales appropriee construite sous l egide du programme de parite du pouvoir d achat eurostat ocde on propose un nouvel indicateur qui facilite la mesure de la difference entre deux ensembles de patterns de consommation chacun calculea l aide d une methode de comparaison multilaterale differente

labor unions and tax aggressiveness abstract we examine the impact of unionization on firms tax aggressiveness we find a negative association between firms tax aggressiveness and union power and a decrease in tax aggressiveness after labor union election wins this relation is consistent with labor unions influencing managers in one or both of two ways 1 constraining managers ability to invest in tax aggressiveness through increased monitoring or 2 decreasing returns to tax aggressiveness that arise from unions rent seeking behavior we also find preliminary evidence that the market expects these reductions around union elections and discounts firms that likely add shareholder value via aggressive tax strategies

ppp strikes back aggregation and the real exchange rate we show the importance of a dynamic aggregation bias in accounting for the ppp puzzle we prove that the aggregate real exchange rate is persistent because its components have heterogeneous dynamics established time series and panel methods fail to control for this using eurostat data we find that when heterogeneity is taken into account the estimated persistence of real exchange rates falls dramatically its half life for instance may fall to as low as eleven months significantly below the consensus view of three to five years

can aggregation explain the persistence of inflation abstract an aggregation exercise is proposed that aims at investigating whether the fast average adjustments of the disaggregate inflation series of the euro area cpi is coherent with the slow adjustment of euro area aggregate inflation estimating a dynamic factor model for 404 inflation sub indices of the euro area cpi allows to decompose the dynamics of inflation sub indices into a part due to a common macroeconomic shock and to sector specific idiosyncratic shocks although idiosyncratic shocks dominate the variance of sectoral prices one common factor appears to be the main driver of aggregate dynamics in addition the heterogenous propagation of this common shock across sectoral inflation rates and in particular its slow propagation to inflation rates of services generates the persistence of aggregate inflation we conclude that the aggregation mechanism explains a significant amount of aggregate inflation persistence

world product and income a review article kravis heston and summers provided comparable price and volume data for gross domestic product and its components for each of 34 countries varying in affluence from india and malawi to the united states the article discusses the data and the way in which they are generated and considers the use of these data for applied demand analysis

a cross country tabulation of own price elasticities of demand abstract this paper tabulates frisch slutsky and cournot own price elasticities for each of 10 goods at the per capita real income levels of 30 countries ranging from india to the united states

the effects of policy expectations on crop supply with an application to base updating we develop a dynamic model to assess the effects of policy expectations on crop supply and illustrate the approach with estimates of the effects of base updating in u s crop programs for corn and soybeans in the corn belt the effect of base updating is relatively small because relevant crop alternatives are subject to similar policies and the alternatives are substitutes in production increasing acreage of one program crop to capture future payments from base updating reduces future payments from the alternative crop we also use our model to assess the effect of base updating on acreage response to prices

towards a better estimation of agricultural supply elasticity the case of soya beans in brazil brazil is a major exporter of several agricultural commodities and has shown strong interest in agricultural trade negotiations for several commodities trade liberalization is expected to be followed by farmgate prices increase and to boost domestic production however in a country as big as brazil possible supply responses to price increase will probably strongly differ from one region to another this article focuses on soya beans for which brazil became a top exporter the panel data technique is used to estimate the soy bean supply response at national and regional level soya bean supply is shown to be very price elastic moreover soya bean supply own price elasticity is much higher in the center north regions than in the south of the country substitution between livestock and soya bean is also very significant in the center north region world agricultural trade models should take account for such regional variability of soya bean supply elasticity the results also allow us to discuss the iss

compensating wage differentials and the duration of wage loss a formal model of occupational choice is developed that shows the extent to which the compensation for increased duration exceeds that for increased risk using the panel study of income dynamics linked to industry data on injuries and unemployment we find nearly all the compensating wage differential for losses due to workplace injuries is for increases in the duration of loss and similarly for losses due to cyclical unemployment the compensating differentials for risk of injury are larger for union than for nonunion workers while those for cyclical unemployment are smaller for union workers

contract costs and financing decisions like bondholders most agents contract for fixed payoffs thus corporate capital structures which are less than 50 percent debt are less levered than overall contract structures in which about 90 percent of total flows are fixed payoffs the hypothesis analyzed here is that loans and bonds lower contract costs by delegating the monitoring and bonding of the default risks of fixed payoffs to credible specialists financial intermediaries bond holder trustees rating agencies and auditors other agents can then focus on their specialties that is efficient supply of labor materials and other services and the contract problems of these specialties copyright 1990 by the university of chicago

another perspective on changes in international inequality from 1950 to 1980 abstract real income data derived from the third phase of the international comparisons project are used to compute theil s population weighted indices of intercountry inequality for several years between 1950 and 1980 contrary to some recently reported results a substantial increase in inequality is observed internationally comparable consumption data indicate consumption inequality increased more than income inequality

worldwide acreage and yield response to international price change and volatility a dynamic panel data analysis for wheat rice corn and soybeans this study estimates a worldwide aggregate supply response for key agricultural commodities namely wheat rice corn and soybeans by employing a newly developed multi country crop and calendar specific seasonally disaggregated model with price changes and price volatility applied accordingly the findings reveal that although higher output prices serve as incentives to improve global crop supply as expected output price volatility acts as a disincentive depending on the crop the results show that own price supply elasticities range from about 0 05 to 0 40 output price volatility however has negative correlations with crop supply implying that farmers shift land other inputs and yield improving investments to crops with less volatile prices simulating the impact of price dynamics since 2006 we find that price risk has reduced the production response of wheat in particular and to a lesser extent rice thus dampening price incentive effects the simulation analysis shows that the increase in own crop price volatility during the 2006 2010 period has dampened yield by about 1 2 for the crops considered

aggregation and simple dynamics the koyck geometric lag or ar 1 specification is a commonly proposed behavioral model sometimes after differencing the distribution of koyck lag or ar 1 coefficients across agents in an economy is shown to be completely identified just from the dynamic behavior of aggregate macroeconomic data aggregate testable implications of an economy composed of agents having koyck lags or ar 1 models are provided extensions to higher order and time varying lags are discussed aggregate u s consumption data are shown to support the hypothesis that some consumers have random walk consumption while the rest have arima 1 1 0 consumption with widely varying ar coefficients copyright 1994 by american economic association

opaque financial reports r2 and crash risk abstract we investigate the relation between the transparency of financial statements and the distribution of stock returns using earnings management as a measure of opacity we find that opacity is associated with higher r2s indicating less revelation of firm specific information moreover opaque firms are more prone to stock price crashes consistent with the prediction of the jin and myers 2006 r2 around the world new theory and new tests journal of financial economics 79 257 292 model however these relations seem to have dissipated since the passage of the sarbanes oxley act suggesting that earnings management has decreased or that firms can hide less information in the new regulatory environment

crop supply dynamics and the illusion of partial adjustment we use field level data to estimate the response of corn and soybean acreage to price shocks our sample contains more than 8 million observations derived from satellite imagery and includes every cultivated field in iowa illinois and indiana we estimate that aggregate crop acreage responds more to price shocks in the short run than in the long run and we show theoretically how the benefits of crop rotation generate this response pattern in essence farmers who change crops due to a price shock have an incentive to switch back to the previous crop to capture the benefits of crop rotation our result contradicts the long held belief that agricultural supply responds gradually to price shocks through partial adjustment we would not have obtained this result had we used county level panel data standard econometric methods applied to county level data produce estimates consistent with partial adjustment we show that this apparent partial adjustment is illusory and we demonstrate how it arises from the fact that fields in the same county are more similar to each other than to fields in other counties this result underscores the importance of using models with appropriate micro foundations and cautions against inferring micro level rigidities from inertia in aggregate panel data our preferred estimate of the own price long run elasticity of corn acreage is 0 29 and the cross price elasticity is 0 22 the corresponding elasticities for soybean acreage are 0 26 and 0 33 our estimated short run elasticities are 37 larger than their long run counterparts

union rent seeking intangible capital and market value of the firm abstract this study considers the effect of unions on intangi ble capital investment and profitability within the context of a market value rather than a more traditional accounting based approach theory is provided suggesting unions are able to affect profitability by sharing in the economic returns to firm specific intangible capital in support of this hypothesis we find unionization reduces the returns to r d and produces a corresponding limiting influence on r d investment at the firm level i introduction a n extensive literature in economics has ex amined the determinants of profitability with much of the focus centering on the role of market structure only recently however have the effects of labor unions on profitability been analyzed ths is surprising since labor economists long have emphasized union influences on wages and productivity that in turn may affect profitabil ity in recent studies freeman 1983 and karier 1985 report a significant limiting influence of unions on price cost margins in high concentra tion manufacturing industries using firm level data and the market based tobin s

a cross country time series analysis of the volume and quality of consumption abstract using the cross section results of kravis et al 1982 and working s 1943 model we provide time series of the volume of consumption per capita and of the quality index for eight oecd countries with base u s 100 in 1975

effects of crop insurance premium subsidies on crop acreage crop insurance premium subsidies affect patterns of crop acreage for two reasons first holding insurance coverage constant premium subsidies directly increase expected profit which encourages more acreage of insured crops direct profit effect second premium subsidies encourage farms to increase crop insurance coverage with more insurance coverage farms obtain more subsidies and farm revenue becomes less variable as indemnities offset revenue shortfalls so acreage of insured crops likely increases indirect coverage effect by exploiting exogenous policy changes and using approximately 180 000 county crop year observations we estimate the sum of these two effects of premium subsidies on the pattern of u s acreage across seven major field crops we estimate that a 10 increase in the premium subsidy causes a 0 43 increase in the acreage of a crop in a county holding the premium subsidy of its competing crop constant taking into account the small share of premium subsidies in expected crop revenue this subsidy impact is analogous to an own subsidy acreage elasticity of 1 24 which exceeds own price acreage elasticity estimates in the literature one explanation for the larger acreage response to premium subsidies is that insurance causes an indirect coverage effect in addition to a direct profit effect

optimal sequential plantings of corn and soybeans under price uncertainty we examine crop choice and fertilizer applications as the solution to stochastic dynamic optimization problem for an innite stream of discounted prots the ecient decision rule depends on the stochastic evolution of commodity prices fertilizer prices and the agronomic eects of rotation versus monoculture this decision rule includes an account of real option values associated with maintaining soil quality and disposition in an environment with highly uncertain future prices and irreversible past planting decisions we parameterize a baseline model for a representative acre in iowa and compare the model s predictions and prots to relatively naive shorter horizon decision rules and a eld managed with optimal fertilizer applications conditional on corn and soybeans always being rotated we also examine the

do unions affect innovation we examine the effect of unionization on firm innovation using a regression discontinuity design that relies on locally exogenous variation generated by elections that pass or fail by a small margin of votes passing a union election results in an 8 7 12 5 decline in patent quantity quality three years after the election a reduction in r d expenditures reduced productivity of inventors and departures of innovative inventors appear to be plausible underlying mechanisms through which unionization impedes firm innovation in response to unionization firms move their innovation activities away from states where union elections win our paper provides new insights into the real effects of unionization this paper was accepted by gustavo manso finance

an extended cross country time series analysis of the volume and quality of consumption abstract the approach of finke and theil 1985 is extended to include four countries ireland japan luxembourg and west germany for which consumption data are available at a less detailed level

futures prices in supply analysis are instrumental variables necessary citation nathan p hendricks joseph p janzen aaron smith futures prices in supply analysis are instrumental variables necessary american journal of agricultural economics volume 97 issue 1 1 january 2015 pages 22 39 https doi org 10 1093 ajae aau062

a new cross country tabulation of the quality index of consumption abstract cross country data are used to tabulate a quality index of consumption for each of 30 countries ranging in affluence from the u s to india as well as the real income relative price and residual components of the quality index

goodness of fit and outliers in cross country demand systems abstract for a 10 good consumer demand system the fit for 30 countries in the sample is compared with that for five countries outside the sample

sluggish institutions in a dynamic world can unions and industrial competition coexist during the 1930s and 1940s collective bargaining emerged as the workplace governance norm in much of the u s industrial sector following its peak in the 1950s union density in the u s private sector fell steadily to only 7 4 percent in 2006 governance shifted from a formalized union norm to one of constrained managerial discretion in competitive and dynamic economic environments a union tax on company earnings and slow response to economic shocks combine to produce poor performance by union companies two industries automotives and airlines are used to illustrate these points if worker based institutions are to flourish they must add value and permit companies to perform at levels similar to those obtained under evolving nonunion governance norms

accounting for u s regional real exchange rates we examine the relationship between the relative price of nontradables and real exchange rate movements for fixed exchange rate regimes using bls cpi data we show that purchasing power parity holds strongly for tradables across u s regions as a result nontradables play a central role in u s regional real exchange rate movements indeed changes in the relative price of nontradables explain up to 80 of regional real exchange rate changes over medium and long run horizons we also argue that nontradables can account for a large portion of real exchange rate changes internationally with high nontradables expenditure shares

investment and union certification using data on union certification elections we estimate the impact of unionization on firms investment behavior employing both a standard q model and an investment surprises technique we find that union certification significantly reduces investment in the year following the election we find that a winning certification election has on average about the same effect on investment in the year following the event as would given the elasticity measures taken from the public finance literature a 33 percentage point increase in the corporate tax the magnitude of the response in years further away from the election is less certain

frich s conjecture and the own price elasticity of the demand for food abstract frich s 1959 conjecture on the behavior of the income elasticity of the marginal utility of income is tested by means of cross country data particularly in relation to the behavior of the frisch own price elasticity of the demand for food

distributed lags aggregation and compounding some econometric implications this paper considers the aggregation of discrete distributed lags in the spirit of houthakker and johansen well known distributed lag models in econometrics are shown to arise from aggregation across heterogeneous microeconomic units the technique of analysis is based on the statistical theory of compound distributions the paper goes on to consider how consistently estimated macro distributed lags may be decomposed into two components which represent respectively the microeconomic response and the heterogeneity in that response related problems of identification and estimation and the interpretive value of the approach are also discussed and illustrations provided

cross country demand systems and centrally planned economies abstract the cross country data of kravis et al 1982 include data on four centrally planned economies the question is addressed as to how such data fit cross country demand systems

world food demand long term projections of global food demand are heavily dependent on which functional form of the food demand equation is used given that real incomes can change substantially over the long term key elements are the dependence of the income elasticity on income which ensures that the food budget share always lies within the 0 1 range and the role of income inequality this article analyzes these issues proposes a new functional form that deals with them and presents estimates of income and price elasticities for food in 138 countries copyright 2012 oxford university press

the economic consequences of labor unionization evidence from stock price crash risk this study investigates the impact of labor unionization on stock price crash risk we find that labor unionization is negatively associated with stock price crash risk such negative relation is more pronounced when firms can intimate more credible evidence on unfavorable prospects and when firms face more powerful labor unions our findings are consistent with the notion that firms take strategic actions to reduce the bargaining advantages enjoyed by labor unions and that labor unions force firms to take less risky investments and discontinue underperformed projects more timely which leads to lower stock price crash risk

a time series analysis of a demand system based on cross country coefficient estimates abstract annual dutch consumption data 1952 1977 for 10 goods which exhaust the consumer s budget are analyzed by means of a complete demand system whose coefficients are obtained from the cross country data collected by kravis 1982

economic behavior under uncertainty a joint analysis of risk preferences and technology a method is developed to estimate jointly risk preferences and technology under general conditions the approach is illustrated in an application to the analysis of u s corn soybean acreage decisions over time the results provide useful information on the nature of farmers risk preferences and on the influence of price risk and production risk on acreage allocation and farmers welfare copyright 1996 by mit press

aggregate deposit insurance funding and taxpayer bailouts abstract recent events have focused attention on the fragility of the federal deposit insurance funds and made redesign of the insurance system an active policy issue this paper explores the implications of different rate structures for the long term solvency of the fund using two simulation techniques based on historical loss distributions three findings stand out 1 under the former 8 33 bp premium rate as well as under the 15 bp premium rate mandated as the new long run target or default premium rate by both firrea and the fdic assesment rate act of 1990 the probability that the fund could become insolvent over a given 55 year period is higher than previously recognized 2 raising the effective cap on the fund to as low as 2 5 of deposits can substantially reduce the probability of insolvency without further increasing the premium rate and 3 the anticipated temporary 1991 premium rate of 19 5 bp implies a quite low probability of insolvency

verifying a demand system by simulation abstract an intriguingly small value of the asymptotic standard error of the estimate of the income flexibility inspired us to simulate the demand system the procedure used should have more general applicability

identifying supply and demand elasticities of agricultural commodities implications for the us ethanol mandate we present a new framework to identify supply elasticities of storable commodities where past shocks are used as exogenous price shifters in the agricultural context past yield shocks change inventory levels and futures prices of agricultural commodities we use our estimated elasticities to evaluate the impact of the 2009 renewable fuel standard on commodity prices quantities and food consumers surplus for the four basic staples corn rice soybeans and wheat prices increase 20 per cent if one third of commodities used to produce ethanol are recycled as feedstock with a positively skewed 95 percent confidence interval that ranges from 14 to 35 per cent jel q11 q16 q42 q48