armington models and terms of trade effects some econometric evidence for north america elasticities of substitution among u s imports from mexico canada the rest of the world and competing domestic production are estimated for twenty two mining and manufacturing sectors based on quarterly data for 1980 88 these elasticities will provide a benchmark for computable general equilibrium models of north american trade liberalization the authors also find that estimated armington elasticities are low and therefore researchers may want to reconsider the device of using high values of armington elasticities in multicountry computable general equilibrium models to avoid large terms of trade losses associated with preferential trade liberalization

organizing the global value chain a firm level test in this paper we study the organization of global value chains on a sample of about 4 000 manufacturing parent companies operating more than 90 000 affiliates on a global scale which chose to integrate at least once in the period 2004 2012 assuming a technological sequence of production stages a recent property rights framework antra s and chor 2013 alfaro et al 2015 predicts that a choice of vertical integration is crucially based on both the position of a supplier along the chain and on the relative size of demand elasticities faced by the final producer and the supplier we positively test whether if final demand is sufficiently elastic inelastic producers of final goods integrate production stages that are more proximate to far from the consumers however this is not valid for cases of midstream parents i e for producers of intermediate inputs that can integrate either backward or forward along the chain we document that midstream are at least as common as are downstream parent companies but that existing theory neglects them in these cases we find that demand elasticities do not play a significant role in integration choices interestingly both midstream and downstream parents tend to integrate affiliates that are more proximate in segments of a supply chain our findings point to a role for technological determinants that may be as important as are contracting frictions in organizing global value chains

sustaining production chains through financial linkages abstract the technological constraints on sustaining production chains have been discussed extensively by development economists but the role of financial linkages has received less attention in a model of recursive moral hazard for a manufacturing supply chain we show that the structure of interlocking receivables and payables serve as the glue for the production chain that sustains complex manufacturing output the inefficiency associated with recursive moral hazard can be mitigated through optimal delays in payments along the chain however efficiency requires large stocks of working capital and invoice prices are high due to implicit amortization costs of inter firm credit

intra industry foreign direct investment we use a new firm level data set that establishes the location ownership and activity of 650 000 multinational subsidiaries close to a comprehensive picture of global multinational activity a number of patterns emerge from the data most foreign direct investment fdi occurs between rich countries the share of vertical fdi subsidiaries which provide inputs to their parent firms is larger than commonly thought even within developed countries more than half of all vertical subsidiaries are only observable at the four digit level because the inputs they are supplying are so proximate to their parent firms final good that they appear identical at the two digit level we call these proximate subsidiaries intra industry vertical fdi and find that their location and activity are significantly different to the inter industry vertical fdi visible at the two digit level these subsidiaries are not readily explained by the comparative advantage considerations in traditional models where firms locate their low skill production stages abroad in low skill countries to take advantage of factor cost differences we find that overwhelmingly multinationals tend to own the stages of production proximate to their final production giving rise to a class of high skill intra industry vertical fdi

foreign influence control and indirect ownership implications for productivity spillovers how does the presence of controlled foreign firms affect the productivity of domestic firms in the same industry we revisit the historical distinction between control and influence by the foreign owner and define controlled foreign firms as those with a foreign ultimate owner holding 50 or more of voting shares connecting insights from new internalization theory with knowledge based views of the mne we posit that controlled foreign firms will generate larger productivity spillovers than non controlled foreign firms we use a firm level panel dataset of 575 844 manufacturing firms 2 343 495 observations across 20 european countries to test our proposition we pay careful attention to how firms are categorized as foreign taking into account both direct and indirect ownership links allowing for indirect ownership turns out to be pivotal there are just as many indirectly controlled foreign firms as foreign firms captured with direct ownership data we find positive horizontal spillovers from controlled foreign firms and zero spillovers from non controlled foreign firms interestingly the strongest positive spillovers come from the indirectly controlled foreign firms the implications of our study extend beyond productivity spillovers to areas such as cross border m as joint ventures mne strategies of legitimation and corporate groups

the last word on the wage curve abstract since 1990 there has been extensive international research on the responsiveness of wages of individuals to changing local labour market conditions for many countries an inverse relationship between wages and local unemployment rates has been found in their book the wage curve blanchflower and oswald argued that the unemployment elasticity of pay is around 0 1 in most countries in a 1995 literature survey card referred to this striking empirical regularity as being close to an empirical law of economics nonetheless reported elasticities do vary even excluding outliers between about 0 5 and 0 1 there is also considerable heterogeneity among wage curve studies in terms of data and model specification this paper carries out meta analytic techniques on a sample of 208 elasticities derived from the literature to uncover the reasons for the differences in empirical results across studies several causes of variation are identified there is also clear evidence of downward publication bias in addition many reported t statistics are biased upwards due to the use of aggregate unemployment rates a maximum likelihood method and a trimming procedure are used to correct for these biases both methods give similar results for our sample an unbiased estimate of the wage curve elasticity at the means of study characteristics is about 0 07

vertical integration and firm boundaries the evidence since ronald h coase s 1937 seminal paper a rich set of theories has been developed that deal with firm boundaries in vertical or input output structures in the last twenty five years empirical evidence that can shed light on those theories also has been accumulating we review the findings of empirical studies that have addressed two main interrelated questions first what types of transactions are best brought within the firm and second what are the consequences of vertical integration decisions for economic outcomes such as prices quantities investment and profits throughout we highlight areas of potential cross fertilization and promising areas for future work

the global value chain under imperfect capital markets this paper develops a model to study how suppliers financial constraint interact with suppliers position in a global value chain i embed financial frictions into the property rights model of the global value chain as in antras and chor econometrica 2013 81 2127 to derive the optimal allocation of ownership rights along the global value chain the model predicts that multinational firms are more likely to integrate downstream intermediate input suppliers in countries with weak financial institutions when the production process is sequential complements using us intrafirm trade data for the years 2000 10 together with a triple interaction term between downstreamness of an industry demand elasticity of an industry and financial development of a country i provide empirical evidence that supports the key prediction of the model

international outsourcing and factor prices with multistage production we develop a dual representation of the technology of international fragmentation for an industry using 2 factors in a continuum of stages we then derive a generalised factor price frontier which incorporates an endogenous adjustment of the margin of fragmentation using this frontier in a 2 2 general equilibrium model we investigate the role of outsourcing in the adjustment to a decline in the final output price of the multistage industry and the attendant factor price effects we also explore the implications of an improved technology of international fragmentation on the margin of fragmentation and on domestic factor prices

monetary and exchange rate arrangements for nafta abstract this paper considers the extent to which the north american free trade area nafta meets the criteria for a common currency area nafta is compared with the ec a regional grouping for which initial plans for a monetary union are already in place most of the anticipated benefits from a monetary union in the ec apply with equal force to nafta however because the underlying disturbances are more diverse across members of nafta the costs of abandoning the exchange rate instrument are likely to be higher this is particularly true when nafta is compared to the ec s continental core

global capital flows and financing constraints firms often cite financing constraints as one of their primary obstacles to investment global capital flows by bringing in scarce capital may ease the financing constraints of host country firms but if incoming foreign investors borrow heavily from domestic banks foreign direct investment may exacerbate financing constraints by crowding host country firms out of domestic capital markets combining a unique cross country firm level panel with time series data on restrictions on international transactions and capital flows harrison love and mcmillan find that different measures of global flows are associated with a reduction in firm level financing constraints first the authors show that one type of capital inflow foreign direct investment is associated with a reduction in financing constraints second they test whether restrictions on international transactions affects the financing constraints of firms the results suggest that only one type of restriction those on capital account transactions negatively affects firms financing constraints the authors also show that multinational firms are not financially constrained and do not appear to be sensitive to the level of foreign direct investment this implies that foreign direct investment eases financing constraints for non multinational firms finally the authors show that 1 foreign direct investment only eases financing constraints in the non g7 countries and 2 other kinds of flows such as portfolio investment have no impact on financing constraints

the effect of foreign acquisition on employment and wages evidence from finnish establishments employee characteristics by skill groups makes it possible to disentangle the effect of foreign ownership on wages from its effects on the quality of the workforce furthermore this information allows us to examine the heterogeneity of the effect of foreign acquisition on wages and employment third the long timespan of our data thirteen years enables us to consider the effects of foreign acquisition in the long run hiring and firing costs may delay the effects of foreign acquisition by looking at the effects of acquisition in several periods after it has taken place these delays can be taken into account we believe finland to be an interesting case study for the effects of foreign ownership it is a typical example of a small open economy where foreign investment plays an important role furthermore our data cover the years 1988 2001 when the share of foreign direct investments rose rapidly in finland this increase is depicted in figure 1 and it partly reflects the worldwide trend in foreign direct investment but the years 1988 2001 were also characterized by two phenomena which undoubtedly led to the increase in the share of foreign owned firms first finland experienced a very severe recession in the early 1990s and the recovery from this crisis was associated with a rapid restructuring of the economy and a growth of new industries in particular the export oriented high tech sector 2 second finland joined the european union in 1995 which naturally removed a considerable number of barriers to foreign investment in the finnish economy the results derived by both matching and regression methods indicate that foreign acquisition has a positive effect on wages in all skill groups this wage increase is not immediate but occurs within one to three years after the acquisition the magnitude of this effect increases with the level of schooling of the workers the results indicate that there is a small decrease in the share of highly educated workers after foreign acquisition the decrease in the share of highly educated workers after acquisition also seems to hold for domestic acquisitions the paper is organized as follows the next section briefly describes the theoretical background for the analysis and reviews some previous empirical findings the third section describes the statistical framework and the fourth section presents the data sets the results are provided in the fifth section the last section concludes the paper

trade and protection with multistage production this paper analyses trade in manuf acutured goods that are produced via a vertical production structure with many stages where some value is added at each to an intermediate product to yield a good in process ready for the next stage we consider the stage at which a good is traded to be an economically endogenous variable with comparative advantage determining the pattern of production specialization by stages across countries we study how endowment changes and policy shifts move the margin of comparative advantage which thus provides a channel for resource allocation adjustment that is additional to the usual ones of factor substitution and changes in the quantity of output

spiders and snakes offshoring and agglomeration in the global economy abstract global production sharing is determined by international cost differences and frictions related to the costs of unbundling stages spatially the interaction between these forces depends on engineering details of the production process with two extremes being snakes and spiders snakes are processes whose sequencing is dictated by engineering spiders involve the assembly of parts in no particular order this paper studies spatial unbundling as frictions fall showing that outcomes are very different for snakes and spiders even if they share some features both snakes and spiders have in common a property that lower frictions produce discontinuous location changes and overshooting parts may move against their comparative costs because of proximity benefits and further reductions in frictions lead these parts to be reshored predictions for trade volumes and the number of fragmented stages are quite different in the two cases for spiders a part crosses borders at most twice the value of trade increases monotonically as frictions fall except when the assembler relocates and the direction of parts trade is reversed for snakes the volume of trade and number of endogenously determined stages is bounded only by the fragmentation of the underlying engineering process and lower frictions monotonically increase trade volumes

the effect of implicit contracts on the movement of wages over the business cycle evidence from micro data in this paper we address the question of whether wages are affected by labor market conditions in a manner more consistent with a contract approach than with a standard spot market model from a simple implicit contract model we derive implications about the links between wages and past labor market conditions using individual data from the current population survey and the panel study of income dynamics we find that an implicit contract model with costless mobility describes these links better than either a simple spot market model or an implicit contract model with costly mobility

incomplete contracts and the boundaries of the multinational firm a b s t r a c t using data on u s intra firm and arm s length imports for 5705 products imported from 220 countries we examine the determinants of the share of u s imports that are intra firm we examine two predictions that arise from antras 2003 antras and helpman 2008 and antras and helpman 2004 first we find that consistent with the implicit logic of antras 2003 and the explicit predictions of antras and helpman 2008 vertical inte gration is increasing in the importance of non contractible headquarter inputs relative to non contractible supplier inputs in other words we show that only non contractible head quarter inputs affect the firm s make or buy decision second we also provide empirical support for the antras and helpman 2004 prediction that intra firm trade is largest where non contractible headquarter inputs are important and productivity is high

evaluating estimates of materials offshoring from u s manufacturing abstract when materials offshoring is measured by estimating imported intermediate inputs a common assumption used is that an industry s imports of each input relative to its total demand is the same as the economy wide imports relative to total demand this is the so called import comparability or proportionality assumption a report to the national research council identified this assumption as being a significant limitation of current data collection and analysis in this note we move beyond this assumption to obtain a direct measure of imported materials by industry for the united states in 1997 at the 3 digit i o industry level there is a correlation of 0 68 between the offshoring shares made with and without the proportionality assumption and a higher correlation of 0 87 when the shares are value weighted while most value weighted industries have differences below 50 percentage points in the two estimates there are a significant number of cases that differ by 10 percentage points or more

trade law and product complexity abstract how does the quality of national institutions that enforce the rule of law influence international trade anderson and marcouiller argue that bad institutions located in the importer s country deter international trade because they enable economic predators to steal and extort rents at the importer s border we complement this research and show how good institutions located in the exporter s country enhance international trade in particular trade in complex products whose characteristics are difficult to fully specify in a contract we argue that both exporter and importer institutions affect international as well as domestic transaction costs in complex and simple product markets international transaction costs are a part of the costs of trade domestic transaction costs affect complex and simple products differently thereby changing a country s comparative advantage in producing such goods we find ample empirical evidence for these predictions countries that have good institutions tend to

a tale of two property rights knowledge physical assets and multinational firm boundaries abstract the theory of multinational firm boundaries has been shaped by two major paradigms an earlier one emphasizing the role of integration in preventing the dissipation of knowledge and a more recent one stressing the role of firm boundaries in mitigating underinvestments into relationship specific assets in the face of contractual incompleteness this paper develops a novel model encompassing both approaches in a unifying framework the model predicts that the attractiveness of integration increases in the importance of the parent firm s knowledge capital and decreases in the importance of the affiliate s physical capital in a joint production process furthermore stronger intellectual property rights ipr protection in the affiliate s country is predicted to mitigate the effect of knowledge intensity on the attractiveness of integration i test these hypotheses using unique panel data on more than 100 000 firm pairs worldwide in line with the model s predictions knowledge intensive parent firms choose higher ownership shares in their affiliates yet this relationship is less pronounced the stronger the ipr protection in the affiliate s country in addition higher physical capital intensity of the affiliate is associated with lower ownership shares these findings are robust to controlling for unobserved heterogeneity across countries industries and firms providing strong support for the unifying theory of multinational firm boundaries

internalizing global value chains a firm level analysis a key decision facing firms is the extent of control to exert over the different stages in their production processes we develop and test a property rights model of firm boundary choices along the

a new database on the structure and development of the financial sector this article introduces a new database of indicators of financial structure and financial development across countries and over time the database is unique in that it combines a wide variety of indicators that measure the size activity and efficiency of financial intermediaries and markets it improves on previous efforts by presenting data on the public share of commercial banks introducing indicators of the size and activity of nonbank financial institutions and constructing measures of the size of bond and primary equity markets this article introduces a new database the first to provide comprehensive measures of the development structure and performance of the financial sector this database is the first to define and construct indicators of the size and activity of nonbank financial intermediaries such as insurance companies pension funds and non deposit money banks it is also the first to include indicators of the size of primary equity markets and primary and secondary bond markets in constructing the database authors carefully deflate measures and match stock and flow variables

wages implicit contracts and the business cyle evidence from canadian micro data evidence of macroeconomic conditions impacting the earnings of men in canada in a manner consistent with an implicit contracting framework is found using data from eleven cross sectional surveys spanning the years 1981 1992 the estimates are similar to those found by beaudry and dinardo 1991 using u s data their analysis is extended to incestigate whether the effects of macroeconomic conditions differ by age evidence is found that the wages of young men and men near retirement are most sensitive to changes in the macroeconomic conditions over their job tenure this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

employment unemployment and output growth in booms and recessions time series evidence from finland 1970 1996 the finnish economy experienced dramatic changes in the early 1990s the collapse of the economy in 1991 resulted in a 12 decline in gdp over the years 1991 1993 leading to a significant fall in the demand for labour and a rise in unemployment the study contributes to the discussion on possible changes in the functioning of the finnish economy by scrutinizing the stability of the employment unemploymentoutput relation the empirical analysis based on aggregate variables from the period 1975 1996 suggests that the relationship between aggregate level employment unemployment and output growth remained relatively stable throughout the investigation period

trade and capital flows a financial frictions perspective the classical heckscher ohlin mundell paradigm states that trade and capital mobility are substitutes in the sense that trade integration reduces the incentives for capital to ow to capital scarce countries in this paper we show that in a world with heterogeneous nancial development the classic conclusion does not hold in particular in less nancially developed economies south trade and capital mobility are complements within a dynamic framework the complementarity carries over to nancial capital ows this interaction implies that deepening trade integration in south raises net capital in ows or reduces net capital out ows it also implies that at the global level protectionism may back re if the goal is to rebalance capital ows when these are already heading from south to north our perspective also has

spot market wages implicit contracts and technological change skill level evidence from finland this article investigates the relevance of the theories of implicit contracts and spot market model to the skill level wages in finland we use linked worker firm panel data over the period from 1991 to 2004 which included major institutional and technological changes we find similar patterns in the wage flexibility of primary and highly educated workers their wages increased with the decreasing spot market unemployment rate after the eu membership still exhibiting some weak backward linkages the wages of the secondary educated did not follow the decreasing spot market unemployment but instead some signs of the full commitment risk sharing were found

aggregation and linearity in the provision of intertemporal incentives we consider the problem of providing incentives over time for an agent with constant absolute risk aversion the optimal compensation scheme is found to be a linear function of a vector of n accounts which count the number of times that each of the n kinds of observable events occurs the number n is independent of the number of time periods so the accounts may entail substantial aggregation in a continuous time version of the problem the agent controls the drift rate of a vector of accounts that is subject to frequent small random fluctuations the solution is as if the problem were the static one in which the agent controls only the mean of a multivariate normal distribution and the principal is constrained to use a linear compensation rule if the principal can observe only coarser linear aggregates such as revenues costs or profits the optimal compensation scheme is then a linear function of those aggregates the combination of exponential utility normal distributions and linear compensation schemes makes computations and comparative statics easy to do as we illustrate we interpret our linearity results as deriving in part from the richness of the agent s strategy space which makes it possible for the agent to undermine and exploit complicated nonlinear functions of the accounting aggregates

the effect of implicit contracts on the movement of wages over the business cycle evidence from the national longitudinal surveys a 1991 study by paul beaudry and john dinardo found evidence of internal labor markets that augment incumbent workers wages when the external labor market is tight when unemployment is low and shield their wages when it is slack current wages they found depend on the tightest labor market conditions observed since a worker was hired not current labor market tightness or labor market tightness at the time of hiring this paper replicates and extends that research using data from six cohorts of the national longitudinal surveys that together span more than three decades as well as an estimation framework more robust than that in the original study the author finds strong support for beaudry and dinardo s key prediction supplementary regressions confirm other implications of the theory as well recently at least the effect of implicit contracting on wages has been similar for men and women

real wages and the business cycle the objectives of this review are threefold 1 to characterize the empirical literature on the cyclical behavior of real wages 2 to identify the sources of the differences in results across studies and 3 to enumerate key factors that determine the cyclicality of real wages given a host of measurement and methodological issues drawing firm conclusions is difficult but several generalizations can be made the estimated cyclicality of real wages depends crucially on the time period of analysis and the choice of whether to examine the production or the consumption wage composition effects play an important but complicated role as well

financial development and the product cycle abstract i develop a model to study how financial institution differences across countries affect the offshoring decision of northern firms and whether a product cycle arises when the only comparative advantage of northern suppliers is their access to better financial institutions a northern final good producer needs to buy an intermediate input from a supplier to complete production she can find this supplier either in the low wage but financially underdeveloped south or in the high wage and financially developed north i show that financial institution differences affect the optimal contract offered to the supplier and are enough to generate a product cycle the final good producer faces a trade off between low wages and contracting distortions when the good is new she finds it optimal to keep production in the north at the cost of a higher wage but with the benefit of a less distorted contract however as the good becomes more standardized the importance of the supplier increases and the cost of not shifting production to the south and take advantage of the lower wage offsets the contractual distortions that the underdeveloped southern financial institutions create the most salient empirical prediction is that the more r d intensive an industry is the larger is the effect of financial development on offshoring these results also hold when wages are endogenized in the empirical section the prediction is tested and confirmed using disaggregated trade data

skill biased technological change is there hope for the unskilled this paper challenges the common view that skill biased technological change boosts wage inequality in a multi sector economy relative wages depend not only on relative productivities but also on relative goods prices if there are complementarities between goods that do not benefit greatly from technological innovations and other goods whose production costs fall in the course of technical progress the relative price of these low tech goods rises if the production of theses low tech goods is intensive in the use of unskilled labor unskilled workers benefit from this increase in the relative goods price this paper presents a simple two sector two factor model of perpetual exogenous skill biased technological change the model is able to explain the increase in wage inequality in the 1980s and the subsequent stabilization of the wage structure in the 1990s