alternative value elicitation formats in contingent valuation mechanism design and convergent validity abstract to date much of the theoretical work on the incentive properties of contingent valuation surveys has focused on the oft recommended single binary choice sbc referendum format this work has identified conditions under which an sbc elicitation is incentive compatible and empirical evidence lends support to the predictive power of the theory nevertheless researchers and practitioners commonly use alternative elicitation formats and defend their design choices based on efficiency and other criteria in this study we demonstrate that it is possible to identify conditions under which alternative elicitation formats are incentive compatible using as examples open ended oe and payment card pc question formats we then implement theory informed value elicitations in the context of a flood control policy for new york city we fail to reject convergent validity in mean willingness to pay when comparing the theory driven oe format with sbc but reject convergent validity between the theory driven pc and sbc formats as an informative counterfactual we find that a standard oe elicitation congruent with prior work leads to significantly lower values and a lower proportion of respondents who view the elicitation as consequential

a review of wta wtp studies abstract willingness to accept wta is usually substantially higher than willingness to pay wtp these constructs have been studied for roughly 30 years and with a wide variety of goods this paper reviews those studies we find that the less the good is like an ordinary market good the higher is the ratio the ratio is highest for non market goods next highest for ordinary private goods and lowest for experiments involving forms of money a generalization of this pattern holds even when we account for differences in survey design ordinary goods have lower ratios than non ordinary ones we also find that ratios in real experiments are not significantly different from hypothetical experiments and that incentive compatible elicitation yields higher ratios

comparison of forecast performance for homogeneous heterogeneous and shrinkage estimators some empirical evidence from us electricity and natural gas consumption abstract maddala et al journal of business and economic statistics 15 1997 90 obtained short run and long run elasticities of energy demand for each of 49 us states over the period 1970 1990 they showed that heterogeneous time series estimates for each state yield inaccurate signs for the coefficients while panel data estimates are not valid because the hypothesis of homogeneity of the coefficients was rejected their preferred estimates are those obtained using the shrinkage estimator this paper contrasts the out of sample forecast performance of heterogeneous panel and shrinkage estimators using the maddala et al journal of business and economic statistics 15 1997 90 electricity and natural gas data sets our results show that the homogeneous panel data estimates give the best out of sample forecasts

bounded rationality climate risks and insurance is there a market for natural disasters this paper examines the role of insurances to reduce uncertainty associated with climate change losses for individuals of special interest is the value individuals place on the reduction of increased flood risks by insurance coverage using rank dependent utility and prospect theories risk premiums are estimated under different climate change scenarios for the netherlands the study delivers two main insights first estimation results suggest that a profitable flood insurance market could be feasible second climate change has the potential to increase the profitability of offering flood insurance 2009 by the board of regents of the university of wisconsin system

wind insurance and mitigation in the coastal zone this paper presents the only study analyzing the decision to purchase wind coverage for individuals whose standard homeowner s policy excludes wind and one of very few analyses of the decision to undertake wind mitigation measures because these two decisions are closely related a simultaneous mixed process approach is used that allows for correlated disturbances across probit insurance and tobit mitigation equations results indicate a positive correlation between errors of the insurance and mitigation models conditioning on covariates households that hold wind insurance tend to engage in greater levels of wind mitigation

individual risk attitudes measurement determinants and behavioral consequences this paper studies risk attitudes using a large representative survey and a complementary experiment conducted with a representative subject pool in subjects homes using a question asking people about their willingness to take risks in general we find that gender age height and parental background have an economically significant impact on willingness to take risks the experiment confirms the behavioral validity of this measure using paid lottery choices turning to other questions about risk attitudes in specific contexts we find similar results on the determinants of risk attitudes and also shed light on the deeper question of stability of risk attitudes across contexts we conduct a horse race of the ability of different measures to explain risky behaviors such as holdings stocks occupational choice and smoking the question about risk taking in general generates the best all round predictor of risky behavior

bounds testing approach to analyzing the environment kuznets curve hypothesis with structural beaks the role of biomass energy consumption in the united states abstract this paper re examines the specification of the environmental kuznets curve ekc for the us economy by accounting for the presence of a major renewable energy source and trade openness over the period 1960 2016 biomass energy consumption and trade openness as well as oil prices are considered as additional determinants of economic growth and consequentially of co 2 emissions the bounds testing approach to cointegration is used to examine the long run relationship between the variables in the presence of structural breaks the causal relationship between the variables is investigated by applying the vecm granger causality test and accommodating structural breaks the results confirm the presence of cointegration between the variables moreover the relationship between economic growth and co 2 emissions is not only inverted u shaped but also n shaped in the presence of structural breaks and biomass biomass energy consumption lowers co 2 emissions exports imports and trade openness are also environment friendly the causality analysis underscores a feedback effect between biomass energy consumption and co 2 emissions economic growth still granger causes co 2 emissions in this new setup

cautious risk takers investor preferences and demand for active management actively managed mutual funds have distinct return distributions from their passive benchmarks and our theoretical analysis using tail sensitive risk preferences suggests that active value and growth funds may serve to reduce downside risk and capture upside potential respectively furthermore tail sensitivity measures estimated from the empirical pricing kernel have significant explanatory power for active fund flows even after controlling for business cycles and market wide sentiment finally active funds unlike their passive counterparts have exposures to option strategies hedging downside risk or capturing upside potential

what drives households to buy flood insurance new evidence from georgia abstract benefiting from access to detailed data on the federally run national flood insurance program for the entire state of georgia usa we analyze residential flood insurance purchasing behavior in that state over more than three decades 1978 2010 the demand for flood insurance on an extensive margin based on take up rates is found to be relatively price inelastic aligned with the behavioral economics literature recent flood events temporarily increase purchases but this effect fades after 3 years we also find that the proportion of developed area in floodplains has a significant positive impact on insurance take up rates contrary to what is often assumed we do not find evidence that insurance purchase and mitigation efforts are substitutes educated individuals individuals over the age of 45 and african americans are all else equal more likely to purchase flood insurance

analyzing the impact factors of energy related co2 emissions in china what can spatial panel regressions tell us abstract china produces a huge amount of co2 emissions that need to be reduced to comply with international commitments identifying the driving factors is critical for achieving mitigation targets and transiting toward a low carbon economy in china this study is one of the first few attempts to apply panel data and spatial econometrics models to analyze the spatial dependence of province level co2 emission intensity and the economic drivers of such emissions first we conducted a systematical review of the development of spatial econometrics second we generated a panel data set about energy and socioeconomic development of 30 provinces and municipalities in china from 2005 to 2012 next we chose the most appropriate model to explain the predominant factors of energy related co2 emissions based on a series of tests of the spatial econometrics models the results suggested that technology improvement adjustment of industrial and energy structures and environmentally friendly behaviors and patterns of consumption of habitants play an important role in co2 emissions mitigation the results also revealed that co2 emissions had strong spatial spillover effects which indicate that policies adopted in one province will affect policy making in neighboring provinces implying that provinces need take combined action to balance climate change mitigation and economic policy goals

risk attitudes to low probability climate change risks wtp for flood insurance abstract natural disasters may increase in frequency and severity in the future as a result of climate change which is likely to have an impact on the demand for natural disaster insurance insights about individual risk beliefs and behavioural responses to changing risks are relevant for insurers as it allows them for example to estimate the demand for new insurance products that cover weather related damage this study elicits individual risk beliefs and the demand for low probability high impact flood insurance using the contingent valuation survey method among approximately 1000 homeowners in the dutch river delta this study is of practical relevance since currently flood insurance is not available in the netherlands while insurers have been considering to provide such insurance individuals generally do not behave in accordance with the expected utility model since a significant proportion of homeowners neglect the low probability flood risk the willingness to pay wtp of those individuals who demand flood insurance is on average considerably higher than the expected value of the flood risk they face moreover the wtp for flood insurance is less than proportionally related to increased flood probabilities that were presented to respondents in the questionnaire individuals follow a process of bayesian updating of flood probabilities since perceptions of flood risk are an important determinant of the wtp while objective risks derived from geographical characteristics influence the wtp to a lesser extent communication of baseline probabilities and changes in flood probabilities using risk ladders facilitate the comprehension of risk by respondents and has a considerable effect on the level of the wtp and its sensitivity to probability changes the results indicate that the current ex post public compensation scheme of flood damage lowers demand for private insurance

willingness to accept willingness to pay and the income effect abstract the gap between willingness to pay wtp and willingness to accept wta has previously been studied by searching for evidence of substitutability the neoclassical hypothesis or status quo bias testing for neoclassical versus psychological theories of preferences we study the gap differently asking whether the observed pairs of wta and wtp are consistent with neoclassical preferences we use sugden s alternatives to the neoclassical theory of choice in i bateman k g willis eds valuing environmental preferences theory and practice of the contingent valuation method in the us eu and developing countries oxford university press oxford pp 152 180 chapter 6 result showing that the effect of income on wtp can be approximated from information on the ratio wta wtp drawing inferences from a meta analysis of 201 wta wtp ratios we conclude that the data are not consistent with neoclassical preferences

regional green development level and its spatial relationship under the constraints of haze in china abstract this paper includes the new constraints of haze in the environmental efficiency research framework and the sbm undesirable and malmquist exponential models are used to measure and analyse the evolution characteristics and regional differences of regional green environmental efficiency of china and applied china s regional panel data and a spatial dubin model to deeply explore the impact of environmental regulation openness urbanisation industrial structure and technological innovation on regional green environmental efficiency the result show that under the constraints of smog the regional green environment efficiency of china is different with each area and shows strong spatial dependence and spatial differentiation the overall spatial distribution of the east middle northeast west gradient is decreasing environmental regulation had a major impact on the green environment efficiency of the region and demonstrated an inverted n type relationship the degree of openness urbanisation industrial structure and technological innovation play an active role in promoting regional green sustainable development economic growth corporate ownership structure fiscal policy and foreign investment dependence have hindered the progress of regional green sustainable development to a certain extent

uncertainty of governmental relief and the crowding out of flood insurance this paper discusses the problem of crowding out of insurance by co existing governmental relief programs the so called charity hazard in the context of different institutional schemes of governmental disaster relief in austria and germany we test empirically whether an assured partial relief scheme as in austria drives a stronger crowding out of private insurance than a scheme promising full relief which is subject to ad hoc political decision making as in germany our general finding is that the institutional design of governmental relief programs significantly affects the demand for private natural hazard insurance

climate change and index insurance demand evidence from a framed field experiment in tanzania abstract index insurance has been touted as part of an adaptation strategy to mitigate climate risks among smallholder farmers however in the face of increasing drought probabilities demand for index insurance may decrease compared to a scenario with no climate change if farmers learn slowly or place considerable weight on prior beliefs using data from a framed field experiment in tanzania we estimate a structural learning model based on a bayesian change point inference method and separately identify the effect of learning expectations recency bias and ambiguity on insurance demand furthermore by simulating the supply side of the insurance market under a set of plausible assumptions we show that climate change results in reduced uptake rates in most cases although demand may increase if the severity of climate change is sufficiently low overall our results provide an alternative explanation for the puzzle of low index insurance demand

negative income effect on perception of long term environmental risk abstract the notion that people with higher income are more concerned about environmental problems is deeply entrenched in economics and some other disciplines studies have shown a positive income effect on the intention to pay for environmental improvement perception of environmental risk however follows a different pattern of variation this paper demonstrates a negative income effect using data extracted from a cross national social survey involving 36 countries an inverse relationship is observed between people s reported income and their perception of long term environmental risks associated with climate change genetic modification of crops and the use of nuclear power lower income individuals see the potential environmental consequences of these human interventions as extremely dangerous more so than the higher income ones richer people are relatively less concerned about the long term environmental risks a possible explanation is that material insecurity reinforces the feeling of risk and danger people living under more difficult economic situation are more vulnerable and see greater danger a key implication of these findings is that concern does not follow the ability to pay people facing higher environmental risks are potentially less able to afford risk reduction support despite that they are likely to be in greater need for it

estimation of short run and long run elasticities of energy demand from panel data using shrinkage estimators this article discusses the problem of obtaining short run and long run elasticities of energy demand for each of 49 states in the united states using data for 21 years estimation using the time series data by each state gave several wrong signs for the coefficients estimation using pooled data was not valid because the hypothesis of homogeneity of the coefficients was rejected shrinkage estimators gave more reasonable results the article presents in a unified framework the classical empirical bayes and bayes approaches for deriving these estimators

choice certainty and consistency in repeated choice experiments the main objective of this study is to examine how repeated choice affects preference learning in stated preference experiments we test different hypotheses related to preference learning by analyzing response patterns and asking respondents in a choice experiment to report their experienced certainty when going through the choice tasks in a split sample test we show that follow up choice certainty questions are procedural invariant the self reported certainty results indicate that learning occurs but econometric testing procedures do not identify any significant impact of learning effects on parameter estimates or variance across choice tasks additional tests of choice consistency suggest that preferences in the choice experiment are stable and coherent

local high tech job multipliers in europe examining employment growth in local labor markets across europe this article finds that each worker in a high skilled occupation creates up to five extra jobs in local less skilled intensive services in the same region however it is also shown that there exist persistent differences in the size of this local high tech job multiplier across regions in particular we find that the multiplier is larger in regions with higher immigration an abundance of less skilled workers and lower gross output per capita at the country level we also show that this results in local high tech job multipliers that are larger in southern european countries than in the rest of europe

relocation of public sector workers evaluating a place based policy this paper investigates the local labor market impact of a uk relocation initiative the 2004 lyons review the review resulted in the dispersal of about 25 000 civil service jobs out of london and the south east towards other uk destinations this study aims to detect whether the inflow of public sector jobs crowded out private sector activity or stimulated the local provision of jobs in the private sector focusing on short term effects i find that the relocation initiative raised private sector employment in receiving areas and changed the sectoral distribution of local employment towards services i also find evidence of displacement i e a tendency for private businesses to locate closer to a relocation site moving out of areas at 1 2km and 2 3km distances into areas at 0 1km distance these agglomeration effects appear highly localized the largest policy impact is found in areas that received the relocated jobs with spillover effects reducing sharply over distance

reference dependence effects on wta and wtp value functions and their disparity in this study we investigate two reference dependence effects in a choice experiment the first is the effect of the well known distinction between gains and losses the second is the effect of changing the reference value on willingness to pay wtp and willingness to accept wta the latter has to our knowledge not been studied before we hypothesize that there are differences between wta and wtp and that both value functions and their disparity are affected by the absolute value of the reference point we test our hypotheses using a choice experiment with trade offs between changes in flood probabilities and costs the choice experiments elicit wtp and wta using two flood probability reference values yielding four separate value functions our findings show that a substantial wta wtp disparity exists and that this disparity increases when moving away from the reference point also both wta and wtp value functions are affected by the flood probability reference value and the wta wtp disparity increases when the flood probability reference point increases both findings suggest that welfare effects caused by changes in public good provision depend not only on the direction of change loss aversion but also the reference value moreover our results show that the latter effect is larger for losses than for gains we introduce the concept of reference point updating as a possible explanation for these findings

spatial agglomeration global value chains and productivity micro evidence from italy and spain abstract we investigate the relationship between spatial agglomeration and firms labor productivity in italy and spain examining firm level heterogeneity in global value chain positioning we analyze a sample of 4025 manufacturing firms during the period from 2010 to 2014 and employ a shift share instrumental variable approach we find that agglomeration has a positive effect on labor productivity for suppliers but not for final firms

the effect of public sector employment on local labour markets this paper considers the impact of public sector employment on local labour markets using english data at the local authority level for 2003 2007 we find that public sector employment has no identifiable effect on total private sector employment however public sector employment does affect the sectoral composition of the private sector specifically each additional public sector job creates 0 5 jobs in the non tradable sector construction and services while crowding out 0 4 jobs in the tradable sector manufacturing when using data for a longer time period 1999 2007 we find no multiplier effect for non tradables stronger crowding out for tradables and consistent with this crowding out for total private sector employment

cumulative prospect theory option returns and the variance premium the variance premium and the pricing of out of the money otm equity index options are major challenges to standard asset pricing models we develop a tractable equilibrium model with cumulative prospect theory cpt preferences that can overcome both challenges the key insight is that the variance premium can be written as the expected return on a portfolio of otm call and put options and the probability weighting feature of cpt can explain the puzzlingly low returns observed for these options using gmm on a sample of u s index option returns between 1996 and 2010 we show that the cpt model ts well observed option prices and therefore the variance premium in a dynamic setting probability weighting and time varying equity return volatility combine to match the observed time series pattern of the variance premium

combining risk attitudes in a lottery game and flood risk protection decisions in a discrete choice experiment decision making about flood protection is surrounded by outcome uncertainty in this paper we look at the influence of individual risk attitudes on flood protection decisions to this end we combine the results of a lottery game with the findings from a discrete choice experiment focusing on flood risk reduction measures we find that the inclusion of non linear probability weighting increases the explanatory power of the choice model the result is however sensitive to behavioral assumptions about decisions under uncertainty as well as whether the lottery was played in the loss or gain domain including risk attitudes in the probability weighted model decreases marginal willingness to pay for measures with a low to intermediate flood risk reduction capacity and increases marginal willingness to pay for measures with a very high flood risk reduction effect this has important implications for the social acceptability of flood reduction measures under different baseline conditions

shaping the relationship between economic development and carbon dioxide emissions at the local level evidence from spatial econometric models the debate over the correlation between economic growth and environmental pollution has attracted a great deal of attention from academic researchers and policy makers in recent years there has been excessive use of spatial econometric models and too much emphasis on statistical procedures in empirical studies in this study we contribute to the existing literature by conducting a more rigorous analysis of the relationship between economic growth and hbox co 2 emissions in chinese cities using spatial durbin models our results show that hbox co 2 emissions increase monotonically in relation to economic growth at the city level and that the driving effects of economic growth are slightly smaller in central china than in eastern and western china in addition to economic growth industry s share of the economy is a major driver of hbox co 2 emissions while technological improvement measured by energy intensity per unit of gross domestic product gdp and the effectiveness of environmental governance flatten the shape of the environmental kuznets curve we provide evidence of local spillover effects of explanatory variables on hbox co 2 emissions economic competition as well as technological diffusion are found to exist in chinese cities in relation to hbox co 2 emissions we also find carbon leakage between cities only if the per capita gdp of a given city is less than 493 in 2010 constant dollars results hold when robustness checks are performed policy makers should carefully consider regional differences and the inherent spatial interactions between factors when formulating carbon reduction policies

tourists temporal booking decisions a study of the effect of contextual framing abstract travellers make booking decisions under uncertainty they may book early and get a discount but then find they cannot travel at the later time or they may wait until the last minute and perhaps miss out altogether prospect theory introduced framing presentation of messages emphasising loss or gain to investigate decision making under uncertainty in other studies a loss negative frame has been found to be more effective than a gain positive frame when decision makers were given a choice since tourism providers benefit when travellers make early bookings three studies using framing were performed to see what kind of framing was more effective in persuading travellers to book in advance two different kinds of framing were adopted risky choice and attribute framing the results of the three studies confirm the predictions of prospect theory and suggest ways of managing tourism campaigns to encourage advance booking

flood insurance wealth redistribution and urban property values abstract this paper examines the economics of the wealth transfer created by the national flood insurance program nfip by its very nature nfip is unique in that it subsidizes existing homeowners but not new construction thus for comparable properties the gain captured by existing homeowners is the difference between selling prices of equivalent qualified and nonqualified properties using standard hedonic pricing models we empirically test the impact of subsidized and nonsubsidized flood insurance on property values

as time goes by examination of temporal stability across stated preference question formats we evaluate the temporal stability of willingness to pay values obtained from two identical stated preference surveys undertaken in 2004 and 2012 the surveys employ two discrete choice elicitation formats to value reductions in two health endpoints related to tap water consumption and are explicitly designed to make direct comparisons between formats we find no significant differences in real willingness to pay between the two surveys for either format a result that is robust to the structure of heterogeneity used to model respondent preferences findings lend support at least within the context of tap water quality to the temporal transfer of nonmarket benefits over extended time periods

decoupling analysis and environmental kuznets curve modelling of provincial level co2 emissions and economic growth in china a case study abstract guangdong is one of the most representative provinces of china in terms of reflecting how the provincial level co2 emissions dynamically evolve with economic development during the process of industrialisation and urbanisation the present study combines decoupling analysis with environmental kuznets curve ekc modelling to systematically explore the interactions between co2 emissions and economic growth in guangdong from the short to long terms aiming to provide the referential significance of low carbon development to other chinese provinces empirical results indicate that co2 economy interactions in guangdong dynamically changed with time performing an effect of expansive weak decoupling during 1995 2014 and having a potential to achieve a strong decoupling in the long run the decoupling states of various sectors and their contributions to the provincial overall decoupling differed greatly and varied by time and household and service sectors played increasingly important roles overall the decoupling effect of provincial co2 emissions is distinctly affected by the stage of industrialisation and urbanisation renewable energy utilisation as well as low carbon technical progress therefore promoting co2 economy decoupling at the provincial level should be specific to the feature and development reality of various provinces

native internal migration and the labor market impact of immigration this paper presents a theoretical and empirical study of how immigration influences the joint determination of the wage structure and internal migration behavior for native born workers in local labor markets using data from the 1960 2000 decennial censuses the study shows that immigration is associated with lower in migration rates higher out migration rates and a decline in the growth rate of the native workforce the native migration response attenuates the measured impact of immigration on wages in a local labor market by 40 to 60 per cent depending on whether the labor market is defined at the state or metropolitan area level

spatial effects of economic performance on the carbon intensity of human well being the environmental kuznets curve in chinese provinces abstract this study analyzes the interdependent relationship between economic development and environmental and human well being in china we evaluate panel data of the carbon intensity of human well being ciwb to measure environmental sustainability and human well being for 30 chinese provinces from 1995 to 2016 we then employ a spatial model to test the environmental kuznets curve the ciwb is an important indicator that incorporates the environmental social and economic dimensions of sustainability the coefficients of gdp squared gdp and cubic gdp are 1 043 0 123 and 0 0045 respectively indicating that the relationship between ciwb and economic growth is an inverted n shape in other words as gdp increases from low to high the ciwb first decreases then increases for a long period until it reaches a turning point and declines thereafter gdp per capita at the two turning points are 850 yuan and 110 000 yuan respectively in the long run economic growth is expected to have a positive effect on sustainable development however currently environmental policies are needed to offset unintended environmental harm analysis of spatial evolution and multiplier spatial effects show that spatial disparity and clustering exist simultaneously this suggests that overall planning for the big picture and cooperative development between adjacent provinces could help to handle regional environmental problems

a theory of anticipated utility abstract a new theory of cardinal utility with an associated set of axioms is presented it is a generalization of the von neumann morgenstern expected utility theory which permits the analysis of phenomena associated with the distortion of subjective probability

relocation relocation relocation assessing the case for public sector dispersal marshall j n bradley d hodgson c alderman n and richardson r 2005 relocation relocation relocation assessing the case for public sector dispersal regional studies 39 767 787 the paper assesses the case for public sector relocation from capital cities using evidence from britain the senior echelons of the british civil service are disproportionately concentrated in london significant reductions in operating costs can be achieved by relocating civil service functions from the capital and these financial savings have been used to justify programmes of dispersal however the paper stresses the strong regional case for relocation relocation contributes directly through employment creation to more balanced regional economic development and simultaneously reduces overheating close to the capital and the under utilization of infrastructure and human resources in other regions the relocation of more senior jobs in the civil service from london strengthens the service base within problem reg

local multipliers at work we measure the effects of a substantial place based policy shock on the local labor market systems exploiting as an instrumental variable the peculiar information necessary to apply for capital subsidies in italy during the period 1996 2006 the results show the presence of positive multipliers in the south of italy slightly lower than what was previously found for the us but much higher than those identified for european and asian countries the reasons for this finding lie in the greater accuracy of the data in the relevance of the instrument used and in the widespread underutilization of production factors

spillover effects of economic globalization on co2 emissions a spatial panel approach abstract this paper investigates the spatial effects of economic globalization on co2 emissions in a panel of 83 countries over the period 1985 2013 we apply the spatial panel method to address the problems of spatial dependency and the spillover effect among neighboring countries first the estimation results verify the existence of the spatial correlations in co2 emissions across nations second we find that the indirect effect of economic globalization on co2 emissions is so significantly negative to overcome the positive direct effect which implies a negative and significant total effect so our results suggest that being surrounded by highly globalized countries has a positive effect on the environmental quality finally we also find strong evidence for the inverted u shaped ekc relationship between co2 emissions and income

the effect of low skilled immigration on u s prices evidence from cpi data i exploit the large variation across u s cities and through time in the relative size of the low skilled immigrant population to estimate the causal effect of immigration on prices of nontraded goods and services using an instrumental variables strategy i find that at current immigration levels a 10 percent increase in the share of low skilled immigrants in the labor force decreases the price of immigrant intensive services such as housekeeping and gardening by 2 percent wage equations suggest that lower wages are a likely channel through which these effects take place however wage effects are significantly larger for low skilled immigrants than for low skilled natives implying that the two are imperfect substitutes

rethinking the area approach immigrants and the labor market in california abstract a framework that uses a constant elasticity of substitution ces production function with skill differentiation and integrated national labor markets has predictions for the employment effect of immigrants at the local level the employment rather than wage response to immigration by skill in a state reveals the production substitutability complementarity between native and immigrant labor this in turn reveals the degree to which immigrants stimulate or depress the demand for native labor to estimate this elasticity i use a novel instrument based on demographic characteristics of total central american migrants or of the mexican population to predict immigration by skill level within california looking at immigration to california between 1960 and 2005 these estimates support the assumption of a nationally integrated labor market by skill and they support the hypothesis that natives and immigrants in the same education experience group are not perfectly substitutable this explains the counter intuitive fact that there is a zero correlation between immigration and wage and employment outcomes of natives in the state

monetary valuation of insurance against flood risk under climate change climate change is projected to increase the risk of natural disasters such as floods and storms in certain regions this is likely to raise the demand for natural disaster insurance we present a stated preference survey using choice modeling with mixed logit estimation methods in order to examine the effects of climate change and the availability of government compensation on the demand for flood insurance by dutch homeowners currently no private insurance against flood damage is offered in the netherlands the results indicate that there are opportunities for the development of a flood insurance market 2012 by the economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

public employment and labour market performance public employment does it increase unemployment we explore the consequences of public employment for labour market performance theory suggests that public employment may not only crowd out private employment but also increase overall unemployment if by offering attractive working conditions it draws additional individuals into the labour force empirical evidence from a sample of oecd countries in the 1960 2000 period suggests that on average creation of 100 public jobs may have eliminated about 150 private sector jobs slightly decreased labour market participation and increased by about 33 the number of unemployed workers theoretical considerations and empirical evidence however suggest that the crowding out effect of public jobs on private jobs is only significant in countries where public production is highly substitutable to private activities and the public sector offers more attractive wages and or other benefits than the private labour market

extreme event risk management a review of lee b preston f 2012 preparing for high impact low probability events lessons from eyjafjallajőkull london chatham house abstract this paper provides a short communication based on a review of bernice lee and felix preston with gemma green 2012 this white paper received 36 survey responses from businesses related to the impact of the eyjafjallaj kull volcano most reported negative profit impacts although 47 reported that it took less than a week to return to normal operations this volcanic incident represents events that have significant impact on supply chains that have low enough rates of occurrence that they cannot be expected to be forecast therefore there is a great deal of value to put the organization in a position to adapt to whatever might occur and to have contingency plans in effect

on consumer preferences and the willingness to pay for term life insurance abstract we run a choice based conjoint cbc analysis for term life insurance on a sample of 2017 german consumers using data from web based experiments individual level part worth profiles are estimated by means of a hierarchical bayes model drawing on the elicited preference structures we then compute relative attribute importances and different willingness to pay measures in addition we present comprehensive simulation results for a realistic competitive setting that allows us to assess product switching as well as market expansion effects on average brand critical illness cover and underwriting procedure turn out to be the most important nonprice product attributes hence if a policy comprises their favored specifications customers accept substantial markups in the monthly premium furthermore preferences vary considerably across the sample while some individuals are prepared to pay relatively high monthly premiums a large fraction exhibits no willingness to pay for term life insurance at all presumably due to the absence of a need for mortality risk coverage we also illustrate that utility driven product optimization is well suited to gain market shares avoid competitive price pressure and access additional profit potential finally based on estimated demand sensitivities and a set of cost assumptions it is shown that insurers require an in depth understanding of preferences to identify the profit maximizing price

multinational enterprises service outsourcing and regional structural change this paper offers a joint analysis of two phenomena characterizing most advanced economies in recent decades the rise of foreign ownership in manufacturing activities and the pervasiveness of the service economy the aim of the study is to examine the structural transformation of regional economic systems within the uk by focusing on the role played by foreign multinational enterprises mnes in manufacturing in facilitating the development of services from a conceptual perspective this research relies on different strands of literature on the impact of foreign direct investment fdi on recipient economies on outsourcing and regional structural transformation and on the identification of local multipliers the empirical analysis focuses on a specific demand side channel for structural change the forward linkage established by foreign manufacturing mnes with local service providers through outsourcing descriptive evidence shows that service outsourcing by foreign plants operating in manufacturing is pervasive compared to outsourcing by their domestic counterparts on this basic premise we estimate the multiplicative effects that foreign manufacturing activity has on the creation of service jobs in local labour markets in order to produce reliable estimates of a local multiplier the methodology adopts an instrumental variable approach our findings suggest that foreign presence in manufacturing can be a catalyst of regional structural change by stimulating the generation of new jobs in the tertiary sector via demand linkages

willingness to pay and willingness to accept how much can they differ comment i agree with the point made by edoh y amiran and daniel a hagen 2003 that there can be a substantial or even infinite divergence between the wta and wtp for a public good even where there is a nonzero elasticity of substitution between market goods and the public good provided that the indifference curves are asymptotically bounded with respect to market goods in the manner they describe this is an important point they are also correct to point out that the elasticity of substitution is a local concept whereas their asymptotic boundedness condition applies also for discrete changes my 1991 paper used a local analysis because it was following the structure of the analysis in robert d willig 1976 and alan randall and john r stoll 1980 i wanted to show that while randall and stoll appeared to extend willig s local result on wta versus wtp from price changes to changes in the quantity of a public good the relevant elasticity was in fact different and involved the substitution elasticity as well as the income elasticity i view these points by amiran and hagen as not two separate results but essentially the same result their asymptotic boundedness condition generalizes my zero elasticity of substitution condition to discrete changes the asymptotic boundedness condition can be expressed as follows assuming a bivariate utility function u x q and given a reference point x q associated with a reference utility level u u x q there exists some q q such that for all q q there exists no x such that u x q u in other words no amount of x can substitute for the reduction in public good from q to q q in the case of a zero elasticity of substitution q q but as amiran and hagen show in their theorem 1 this is unnecessarily restrictive when dealing with a discrete reduction in q furthermore their theorem 2 can be viewed as a special case of their theorem 1 in which q 0 which makes q an essential commodity it is well known in consumer theory that the wta to avoid the loss of an essential market good is infinite their theorem 2 extends this result to the case of an essential nonmarket good but as their theorem 1 shows essentialness is not necessary for an infinite wta the boundedness condition is the key and this implies a fundamental lack of substitutability between money market goods and the public good

redistributive public employment a test for the south of italy abstract this paper proposes an econometric test to verify whether public employment discourages the development of private economic activity in the south of italy our results suggest that this is indeed the case

revisiting environmental kuznets curves through the energy price lens abstract the goal of this paper is to provide new insights to elucidate the inconclusive results from the environmental kuznets curve ekc empirical literature for the first time in empirical literature an econometric analysis includes the relative prices for several energy sources the paper provides strong evidence on the relevance of energy prices to co 2 emissions accordingly one reason for the lack of agreement in the ekc literature may be the absence of energy prices in empirical exercises the presence of relative energy price changes in the econometric specification confirms a monotonic and positive relationship between co 2 and gross domestic product gdp therefore we may conclude that there is a decoupling process but without reaching any turning point on that relationship the policy implications are straightforward direct climate action by policy makers is required to break the positive relationship between co 2 and gdp that conclusion has been reinforced by the reduction of energy prices since the middle of 2014 otherwise the trend in energy prices may reverse the relative decarbonisation processes accounted for in recent years in major developed countries

aid catastrophes and the samaritan s dilemma this paper discusses the impact of foreign aid on the recipient country s preparedness against natural disasters the theoretical model shows that foreign aid can have two opposing eects on a country s level of mitigating activities in order to test the theoretical propositions we analyse the eect of foreign aid dependence on ex ante riskmanagement activity proxied by the death toll from major storms floods and earthquakes occurring worldwide between 1980 and 2002 we find evidence that the crowding out eect of foreign aid outweighs the preventive eect in the case of storms while there is mixed evidence in the case of floods and earthquakes

the wider impacts of high technology employment evidence from u s cities abstract innovative high technology industries are commonly described as drivers of regional development tech workers earn high wages but they are also said to generate knock on effects throughout the local economies that host them spurring growth in jobs and wages in nontradable activities at the same time in iconic high tech agglomerations like the san francisco bay area the home of silicon valley the success of the tech industry creates tensions in part as living costs rise beyond the reach of many non tech workers across a large sample of u s cities this paper explores these issues systematically combining annual data on wages employment and prices from the quarterly census of employment and wages the department of housing and urban development and the consumer price index it estimates how growth in tradable tech employment affects the real living cost deflated wages of local workers in nontradable sectors results indicate that high technology employment has significant positive but modest effects on the real wages of workers in nontradable sectors these effects appear to be spread consistently across different kinds of nontradable activities in terms of substantive wider impacts tech appears benign though fairly ineffectual

choice under uncertainty evidence from ethiopia india and uganda we review experimental evidence collected from risky choice experiments using poor subjects in ethiopia india and uganda using these data we estimate that just over 50 of our sample behaves in accordance with expected utility theory and that the rest subjectively weight probability according to prospect theory our results show that inferences about risk aversion are robust to whichever model we adopt when we estimate each model separately however when we allow both models to explain portions of the data simultaneously we infer risk aversion for subjects behaving according to expected utility theory and risk seeking behaviour for subjects behaving according to prospect theory

developments in non expected utility theory the hunt for a descriptive theory of choice under risk this article reviews recent developments in the economic theory of individual decision making under risk since the 1950s it has been known that individual choices violate the standard model of expected utility in predictable ways considerable research effort has now been devoted to the project of developing a superior descriptive model following an overview of non expected utility theories which distinguishes between conventional and non conventional approaches the paper seeks to assess these alternative models in terms of empirical success using laboratory and field data and theoretical usefulness the closing sections reflect on some new directions emerging in this literature

the practice of econometrics classic and contemporary provides hands on experience of econometrics with estimation and inference each chapter begins with a discussion of economic theory underlying the application

does accounting for preference heterogeneity improve the forecasting of a random utility model a case study abstract this paper examines the out of sample forecasting performance of several random utility models of recreation behavior the application is salmon fishing on lake michigan in 1996 and 1997 with the quality of fishing as measured by catch rates better in 1997 than in 1996 the models examined are a logit model two random parameters logit rpl models and a latent class logit lcl model results indicate that the rpl and lcl models forecast equally well and by at least one measure the logit model outperforms them both results also raise the possibility that recreational fishing decisions have a dynamic component

reducing gain loss asymmetry a virtual reality choice experiment valuing land use change abstract in the majority of choice experiments ces the attributes of non market goods are conveyed to respondents as a table of numeric and or categorical data recent research suggests that respondents may have difficulties evaluating data in this format in the context of a ce eliciting preferences for changes in coastal land use this study uses a split sample experiment to compare standard presentations with virtual reality vr visualisations conveying objectively identical information we find that compared to the standard presentation preferences elicited in vr treatments are less variable and exhibit a significant reduction in asymmetry between willingness to pay wtp for gains and willingness to accept wta for corresponding losses we conjecture that the greater evaluability of the vr presentation reduces respondent judgement error and moderates reliance on the loss aversion heuristic

financial decision making are women really more risk averse 40 males 33 females gain gambling gain domain loss gambling loss domain a contextual frames b abstract gambling frames studies the application of experimental methods provided stronger control of the economic environment in which decisions were made we elicited data which call into question the prevalence of stereotypic risk attitudes in financial decision making first we find that the comparative risk propensity of male and female subjects is strongly dependent on the financial decision setting second and more important we observe no gender differences in risk propensity when subjects face contextual decisions since in practice financial decisions are always contextual our results suggest that the above gender stereotype may not reflect true male and female attitudes toward financial risks i gender specific risk behavior an experimental design our experiment was designed to examine gender specific risk propensity in decisions relevant for investors and managers table 1 gives an overview of the experimental design in the main treatment we implemented risky choices in the form of investment and insurance decisions choice behavior in this treatment henceforth called the context treatment directly measures the risk behavior of male and female subjects in contextual financial decisions we also ran a control treatment in which the same risky choices were presented as abstract gambling decisions this control treatment henceforth called the abstract treatment allows us to validate the risk behavior induced by our experimental procedure in the light of the above mentioned gambling evidence in the context treatment subjects were confronted with risky choices in two different decision contexts subjects first had to complete a series of investment decisions they were then presented with a series of identical choices this time however framed as insur1 wealth effects from income differences outside the laboratory may still affect risk behavior in our experiment they are controlled for in our model 2 experimental instructions are available in german from the authors or in english from our web page www wif ethz ch publikationen htm ance decisions each investment and insurance decision incorporated a choice between a risky lottery and a certain payoff with the series of choices implemented in the two frames we elicited our subjects certainty equivalents for the same four risky lotteries l1 l2 l3 l4 in both contexts we implemented two frames in the context treatment in order to measure the risk propensity of subjects toward both perceived gains and perceived losses in both frames all possible payoffs for each decision were positive in the investment frame these payoffs were also presented as gains while in the insurance frame the same payoffs were presented as losses relative to an initial endowment therefore elicited certainty equivalents in the investment frame measure subjects risk propensities in the gain domain while certainty equivalents in the insurance frame measure risk propensity in the loss domain if in contextual financial decisions female subjects are generally more risk averse than men our results should display ceteris paribus lower female certainty equivalents in both the investment and insurance frames 3 the four lotteries l1 l2 l3 and l4 each had two possible outcomes payoffs in swiss francs 1 sfr a 0 60 and their probabilities were 30 sfr 6 10 sfr 6 30 sfr 2 10 sfr 2 30 sfr 6 10 sfr 6 and 50 sfr 2 20 sfr 2 respectively 4 experimental evidence suggests that individual risk propensity will vary systematically between the gain and loss domain daniel kahneman and amos tversky 1979 383 vol 89 no 2 gender and economic transactions 3y16 my68 mp 383 friday dec 10 08 20 am lp aer my68 figure 1 differences in mean certainty equivalents ce between male and female subjects by frame note certainty equivalents and male female differences are measured in swiss francs in the abstract treatment we confronted a different group of subjects with exactly the same risky decisions as those in the main treatment however as mentioned before all choices in this control treatment were framed as abstract gambling decisions again two frames were implemented in the gaingambling and loss gambling frames we measured the risk attitudes of subjects toward gambles in the gain and loss domain respectively subjects in both treatments were told in advance that one of their choices would determine their experimental earnings further all subjects completed a post experimental questionnaire which yielded information on each subject s disposable income this information is necessary to exclude wealth effects due to income differences outside the laboratory as an explanation of gender specific choice behavior

does federal disaster assistance crowd out flood insurance abstract we empirically analyze whether federal disaster aid crowds out household purchase of disaster insurance we combine data on annual household flood insurance purchases for the united states over the period 2000 2011 with data from the two main u s post disaster federal aid programs fema s individual assistance grants and sba s low interest disaster loans estimating both fixed effects and instrumental variable models to account for the endogeneity of disaster assistance grants we find that receiving individual assistance grants decreases the average quantity of insurance purchased the following year by between 4000 and 5000 the reduction we find is roughly 3 of the mean insurance coverage in the sample but larger than the average flood related ia grant in our sample which is 2984 ia is currently limited and larger grants could have different impacts the crowding out is on the intensive margin we find no impact on take up rates likely because there is a requirement that recipients of disaster aid purchase an insurance policy we do not know how take up rates might change without such a requirement low interest post disaster government loans have no systematic effect on insurance purchases

are individuals bayesian decision makers there has been increasing interest in whether normative models of individual choice under uncertainty accord with actual behavior these concerns have been much greater than in other economic contexts because of the particularly severe demands such decisions place on the rationality of the decision maker the limitations of these decisions have widespread consequences as they provide the rationale for many governmental efforts to regulate the risks people face here i explore the issues raised by a bayesian decision framework focusing particularly on my analyses of worker and consumer behavior

changing with the tide semiparametric estimation of preference dynamics we contrast the discovered preference hypothesis against the theory of coherent arbitrariness in a split sample stated choice experiment on flood risk exposure a semiparametric local multinomial logit model is developed as an alternative to the swait and louviere 1993 test procedure controlling for preference dynamics within and between samples the proposed model supports the discovered preference hypothesis by means of a decaying starting point bias the swait and louviere 1993 test procedure reaches a different conclusion it rejects the assumption of stable preferences but most preference dynamics tend to be smoothed out causing a more erratic pattern of preference dynamics

train travel passengers willingness to pay to offset their co2 emissions in korea abstract due to the upsurge in concerns regarding climate change the carbon market has been growing more rapidly than ever recently a more innovative and experimental voluntary carbon market has been playing a supplementary role to the compliance market which is lacking in flexibility and diversity and has been accounting for an increasingly larger portion of the carbon market among the efforts to accumulate data and develop appropriate policies for the voluntary carbon market it is necessary to analyze the benefits of carbon offsets for ghg emissions from railways this study attempts to apply contingent valuation cv to measure the public s willingness to pay wtp for voluntary carbon offsets vcos from railway travel in korea furthermore in order to enhance the statistical efficiency of the wtp estimation and reduce the response effect in the context of wtp elicitation this study employs a one and one half bound dichotomous choice format the estimate of the mean wtp for a vco program for a specific travel distance is estimated to be krw 1 345 usd 1 24 per person this quantitative information can be utilized to develop policies related to mitigating climate change

the effect of risk context on the value of a statistical life a bayesian meta model this paper presents the first value of statistical life vsl meta analysis that empirically estimates correction factors for out of context benefits transfer bt purposes in the field of mortality risk reductions elicited willingness to pay values in one risk context say road safety are frequently applied in other risk contexts like air pollution however differences in risk perception and the population at risk across contexts are likely to result in diverging vsl estimates in a meta analysis of 26 international stated preference studies a bayesian model is estimated regressing contingent values for mortality risk reductions originating from three different risk contexts on the characteristics of the risk reduction itself and additional variables characterizing the underlying studies a willingness to pay wtp premium for mortality risk reductions in the air pollution and general mortality risk context relative to improving road safety is observed evaluated at the mean road safety vsl estimates should be multiplied by a factor 1 8 before being applicable in the air pollution context moreover in an illustrative bt exercise we find limited overlap in the set of context specific predictive vsl distributions consequently out of context bt results in a substantial over or underestimation of the vsl

a spatial panel data approach to estimating u s state level energy emissions we take advantage of a long panel data set to estimate the relationship between u s state level carbon dioxide co2 emissions economic activity and other factors we specify a reduced form energy demand model to account for energy consumption activities that drive energy related emissions we contribute to the literature by exploring several spatial panel data models to account for spatial dependence between states estimation results and rigorous diagnostic analysis suggest that 1 economic distance plays a role in intra and inter state co2 emissions and 2 there are statistically significant positive economic spillovers and negative price spillovers to state level emissions

assessing inherent model bias an application to native displacement in response to immigration abstract there is a long standing debate among academics about the effect of immigration on native internal migration decisions if immigrants displace natives this may indicate a direct cost of immigration in the form of decreased employment opportunity for native workers moreover displacement would also imply that cross region analyses of wage effects systematically underestimate the consequences of immigration the widespread use of such area studies for the us and other countries makes it especially important to know whether a native internal response to immigration truly occurs this paper introduces a microsimulation methodology to test for inherent bias in regression models that have been used in the literature we show that some specifications have built biases into their models thereby casting doubt on the validity of their results we then provide a brief empirical analysis with a panel of observed us state by skill data together our evidence argues against the existence of native displacement this implies that cross region analyses of immigration s effect on wages are still informative

macroeconomic implications of cash limits in the public sector a cash limit is a fixed amount of money available for pay prior to the wage negotiations in the public sector this paper examines the macroeconomic implications of cash limits in a unionized economy with decentralized wage bargaining in both private and public sectors i focus in particular on the linkages between changes in the cash limit wage setting and employment in public and private sectors equilibrium unemployment is independent of the size of the public sector if there are no sectoral differences in the unions relative bargaining power in general unemployment may rise or fall by public sector expansion accomplished by means of an increase in the cash limit unemployment increases if unions are relatively more powerful in the public than in the private sector

do immigrant inflows lead to native outflows we use 1980 and 1990 census data for 119 larger metropolitan statistical areas to examine the effect of skill group specific immigrant inflows on the location decisions of natives in the same skill group and on the overall distribution of human capital to control for unobserved skill group specific demand factors our models include lagged mobility flows of natives over the 1970 80 period we also estimate instrumental variables models that use the fraction of mexican immigrants in 1970 to predict skill group specific relative immigrant inflows over the 1980s despite wide variation across cities in the size and relative skill composition of immigrant population changes we find no evidence of selective out migration by natives we conclude that immigrant inflows exert a direct effect on the relative skill composition of cities cities that have received relatively unskilled immigrant flows have experienced proportional rises in the size of their unskilled populations this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

loss aversion under prospect theory a parameter free measurement agrowing body of qualitative evidence shows that loss aversion a phenomenon formalized in prospect theory can explain a variety of field and experimental data quantifications of loss aversion are however hindered by the absence of a general preference based method to elicit the utility for gains and losses simultaneously this paper proposes such a method and uses it to measure loss aversion in an experimental study without making any parametric assumptions thus it is the first to obtain a parameter free elicitation of prospect theory s utility function on the whole domain our method also provides an efficient way to elicit utility midpoints which are important in axiomatizations of utility several definitions of loss aversion have been put forward in the literature according to most definitions we find strong evidence of loss aversion at both the aggregate and the individual level the degree of loss aversion varies with the definition used which underlines the need for a commonly accepted definition of loss aversion

values of gains and losses reference states and choice of measure the available empirical evidence continues to suggest that people commonly value losses more and often much more than otherwise commensurate gains consequently current practice of using the wtp measure for all changes is often likely to lead to misleading assessments of welfare changes the reference dependence of preferences implies instead that while the wtp measure is appropriate for gains the value of both positive and negative changes in the domain of losses will usually be more accurately assessed with the wta measure