the effects of total factor productivity and export shocks on a small open economy with unemployment abstract the paper analyzes the dynamic effects of a supply side shock and a demand side shock which hit an open economy with unemployment the supply side shock is modeled as a reduction in total factor productivity whereas the demand side shock is caused by a drop in exports the model builds upon the small one sector two good open economy framework described in turnovsky 2000 chapter 11 3 in contrast to this standard framework in which walrasian labor markets are assumed search unemployment and wage bargaining are introduced and unemployment results from time consuming and costly matching of vacancies with searching agents using a plausible calibration of the model the dynamic adjustments of unemployment output and other economic key variables are analyzed we find that a negative export shock primarily has effects on consumption and welfare but not on unemployment and output whereas the supply side shock leads to considerable responses of unemployment output consumption and welfare if both shocks together hit the economy the changes in consumption and welfare almost double

the contingent governance of teams analysis of institutional complementarity the first purpose of this paper is to design a model of governance structure called the contingent governance which can control the free riding problem in teams in the second best manner the second is to show by a new method of comparative static analysis that the effectiveness of the contingent governance may be enhanced by complementary institutional arrangements of the imperfect labor market and bank centered financial system the paper discusses the implications of such institutional complementarity for the dynamic change of the japanese main bank system and financial system design of transitional economies copyright 1994 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

oligarchic family control social economic outcomes and the quality of government wealthy families as opposed to small public shareholders characterize ownership of the large corporate sectors of many countries around the world this paper shows that greater oligarchic family control over large corporations is associated with worse social economic outcomes it also correlates with more bureaucratic and more interventionist governments and less developed financial markets further tests show that red tape price controls and the lack of shareholder rights protection are the paramount factors relating to the extent of family control of large firms these results are broadly consistent with olson and others who argue that economically entrenched wealthy insiders pursue rent seeking activities to preserve the status quo and that this increases corruption and impedes growth

a managerial decision model of international cooperative venture formation this paper develops a model of international cooperative venture formation that is centered on the decisionmaking process of mne executives central issues for managerial decisions are developed from the organizational studies literature a framework delineating the sequence and criteria used in the decision to form international cooperative ventures is developed from these defined issues and from existing models propositions pertaining to the venture formation decision process are outlined

governments as owners state owned multinational companies the globalization of state owned multinational companies somncs has become an important phenomenon in international business ib yet it has received scant attention in the literature we explain how the analysis of somncs can help advance the literature by extending our understanding of state owned firms soes and multinational companies mncs in at least two ways first we cross fertilize the ib and soes literatures in their analysis of foreign investment behavior and introduce two arguments the extraterritoriality argument which helps explain how the mnc dimension of somncs extends the soe literature and the non business internationalization argument which helps explain how the soe dimension of somncs extends the mnc literature second we analyze how the study of somncs can help develop new insights of theories of firm behavior in this respect we introduce five arguments the triple agency conflict argument in agency theory the owner risk argument in transaction costs economics the advantage and disadvantage of ownership argument in the resource based view rbv the power escape argument in resource dependence theory and the illegitimate ownership argument in neo institutional theory after our analysis we introduce the papers in the special issue that collectively reflect diverse and sophisticated research interest in the topic of somncs

investments holdup and the form of market contracts the authors analyze incomplete contracts to induce efficient investment with exogenous switching costs fixed price contracts are efficient generate some rigidity in prices are renegotiated intermittently by possibly small amounts and when inflation is positive generate asymmetric responses to shocks all consistent with evidence on prices and wages with two sided specific investments efficiency requires prices to have sufficient escalator clauses to avoid renegotiation as observed in many long term contracts a third case with one sided specific investments can generate take or pay contracts and explain why firms sometimes pay for specific investments that appear to benefit employees directly

state ownership and transparency in foreign direct investment we contribute to ib literature on state owned multinationals by examining an understudied element of mne strategy transparency drawing insight from accounting finance and political science we develop theory and hypotheses regarding ownership effects on fdi disclosure we argue that transparency of outward fdi depends on both state ownership and home and host country institutions we also posit that host governments harness their soes to exploit information disclosed by foreign mnes discouraging inward fdi transparency we test our hypotheses using a unique transaction level database from the global petroleum industry analyzing a sample of 965 investment disclosures across 81 developing and developed countries we find state ownership reduces mne transparency soes are less sensitive to host country political risk than private firms soes from better governed countries are more transparent and regardless of ownership foreign mnes are more opaque when investing in the presence of a host country soe

the choice between joint venture and wholly owned subsidiary an institutional perspective the study of foreign entry mode choice has been based almost exclusively on transaction cost theory this theory focuses mainly on the impacts of firm and industry specific factors on the choice of entry mode taking the effects of country specific contextual factors as constant or less important in contrast the institutional perspective emphasizes the importance of the influence of both institutional forces embedded in national environments and decision makers cognitive constraints on the founding conditions of new ventures still this theoretical perspective has yet to provide insights into how institutional factors influence the choice of foreign entry mode the primary goal of the present study is to provide a unifying theoretical framework to examine this relationship we synthesize transaction cost and institutional perspectives to analyze a sample of 364 japanese overseas subsidiaries our results support the notion that institutional theory provides incremental explanatory power of foreign entry mode choice in addition to transaction cost theory in particular we found that multinational enterprises tend to conform to the regulative settings of the host country environment the normative pressures imposed by the local people and the cognitive mindsets as bounded by counterparts and multinational enterprises own entry patterns when making foreign entry mode choices

valuing managerial flexibility an application of real option theory to mining investments abstract the value of managerial flexibility is assessed using data on prices costs grades reserves ore extraction and metal output for a panel of canadian copper mines a real option model is estimated and solved for project and option values most empirical researchers i consider the initial investment decision but neglect flexible operation thereafter ii assume that price is stochastic but ignore cost and reserve uncertainty and iii model price as a nonstationary stochastic process the evolution of three state variables price cost and reserves is assessed here differences in assumptions compared to others are found to lead to large differences in estimated project and option values

the nash bargaining solution is optimal abstract we consider the problem faced by players in a two person bargaining game who have different opinions about what is the appropriate solution concept to use a procedure is proposed to resolve such a conflict and it is shown that the nash bargaining solution constitutes the unique equilibrium of the game induced by the procedure as a by product we obtain that in the axiomatic characterization of the nash solution the controversial independence of irrelevant alternatives axiom can be replaced by a much weaker recursivity axiom which amounts to requiring independence of alternatives that cannot be obtained as an outcome of a risk sensitive solution

resource curse or not a question of appropriability this thesis presents three self contained essays focusing on empirical questions in growth and development economics each article addresses specific questions on why countries perform differently in particular i analyse the effect of democracy on economic development the relationship between natural resources and growth and the efficiency of foreign development assistance in the first essay democracy consolidation and growth i analyse the effect of democracy on economic growth in this context i argue that an important aspect to consider is how consolidated political systems are put simply i find that it is not only a question of how democratic countries are but also how long they have been democratic in other words economic performance tends to improve with the duration of uninterrupted democracy the performance of autocracies on the other hand tends to deteriorate over time however for newly established political systems there seems to be a cost of being democratic this implies that democracies only bear their fruit after some time the analysis has important policy implications to overcome initial straits international assistance focused on democratic consolidation may be important and a very good investment in fostering long run development the second essay resource curse or not a question of appropriability together with anne boschini and jesper roine is concerned with the relation between natural resources and economic development for most laymen as well as for most economists it would seem reasonable that countries richly endowed in natural resources also benefit from this wealth however a large literature has found a systematic negative effect of natural resource abundance on economic growth we suggest that this so called resource curse is not determined by resource endowments alone but rather by the interaction between the type of resources a country possesses and the quality of institutions in the country this combination of factors determines what we call the appropriability of a resource the concept of appropriability captures the likelihood of natural resources leading to rentseeking corruption or conflicts which in turn will harm economic development our results suggest that if institutions are good enough the curse may be turned into a blessing this may explain why some countries such as norway and botswana tend to benefit from their resources while others such as angola and sierra leone do not the third and final essay of this thesis foreign sectoral aid fungibility growth and poverty reduction is a contribution to the aid efficiency literature which is concerned with the question of whether aid helps or hinders economic development foreign development assistance is often targeted on specific public expenditure sectors if this aid is not used in the sector for which it was granted e g health education it is said to be fungible and donors may end up financing something completely different from what they intended e g military expenditures the major concern about sectoral fungibility is that the alternative use of aid may be less productive or less socially useful however measuring fungibility is not sufficient to determine whether foreign sectoral aid fungibility is actually harmful what is important is how the funds treated as fungible are used the essay starts by obtaining estimates of fungibility for 57 countries the results suggest that sectoral aid is indeed largely treated as fungible by recipient countries next to assess the economic and health effects of fungibility these estimates are incorporated into an empirical model of aid and growth as well as into a model of aid and infant mortality altogether i find no evidence of more fungible sectoral aid leading to worse performance

cross sectional efficiency and labour hoarding in a matching model of unemployment we study positive and normative aspects of steady state equilibrium in a market where firms of endogenous size experience idiosyncratic shocks and undergo a costly search process to hire their workers the stylized model we propose highlights interactions between job security provisions and sectoral shocks in determining the natural rate of unemployment the allocation of labour and the extent of labour hoarding and rationalizes cross sectional asymmetries of gross employment flows at the firm level in our model where productivity and search costs are dynamically heterogeneous across firms decentralized wage bargains imply important cross sectional inefficiencies which overshadow the static search inefficiencies on which simpler models focus

varieties in state capitalism outward fdi strategies of central and local state owned enterprises from emerging economy countries institutional diversity characterizing state owned enterprises soes from emerging economies holds critical but under examined implications for their internationalization activities different types of soes can exhibit distinct motivations strategic resources and adaptive capabilities for penetrating foreign markets to understand how such idiosyncratic differences emerge we conceptualize the heterogeneity of soes as an outcome of multiple institutional reform processes administrative and fiscal decentralization industrial restructuring and market liberalization which create diversity between soes affiliated with central and local levels of government building on the idea of institutions as configurations we elucidate how such reforms reconfigure soes constellation of resources capabilities and priorities which shape the parameters of their ability to negotiate for home and host country institutional legitimacy specifically we propose that the restructuring of central soes into national champions exposes them to stronger institutional pressures from home and host country governments while local soes which have fewer obligations to serve national strategic prerogatives display greater managerial autonomy and market orientation but lower levels of monopolistic behavior we discuss how such contrasting attributes contribute to variations in soes international business diversification patterns foreign subsidiary establishment and ownership modes and overseas location preferences recognition of soes organizational diversity holds important implications for theories on state owned multinationals

separating the effects of aggregate and sectoral shocks with estimates from a markov switching search model abstract a two sector stochastic model of labor market search is estimated in order to identify aggregate and sectoral shocks which impact upon the recruitment intensity decisions of firms separation of aggregate and sectoral recruitment effects is achieved through the use of data for two canadian regions which were affected in opposite directions by recent resource price shocks the results of the estimation process suggest that sectoral shocks can have significant quantitative effects on unemployment duration and the unemployment rate

china s transition and its implications for international business this paper focuses on institutional change as the central and most consequential contextual aspect of china s transition identification of key characteristics of china s emergent institutions leads to propositions on their relevance for international business practice china s transition also raises issues for theory development including the way that transition is modeled the need to draw upon multiple perspectives and the concomitants of a contextual approach

the dynamics of technological unemployment this article compares the short and long run effects of technological progress on employment it presents a simple model of frictional unemployment capturing the negative creative destruction effects of technological change on employment in the long run faster technological change accelerates job obsolescence which reduces the equilibrium level of employment but it is also shown to have short run positive and potentially important effects on employment this tends to partially reconcile the schumpeterian view of the effects of technological change on labor markets with facts such as the response of most oecd unemployment rates to the 1970s productivity slowdown

overcoming distrust how state owned enterprises adapt their foreign entries to institutional pressures abroad state owned so enterprises are subject to more complex institutional pressures in host countries than private firms these institutional pressures arise from a weak legitimacy of state ownership in some countries which arises from a combination of ideological conflicts perceived threats to national security and claimed unfair competitive advantage due to support by the home country government these institutional pressures directed specifically at so firms induce them to adapt their foreign entry strategies to reduce potential conflicts and to enhance their legitimacy testing hypotheses derived from this theoretical argument for subsidiaries of listed chinese firms we find that so firms adapt mode and control decisions differently from private firms to the conditions in host countries and these differences are larger where pressures for legitimacy on so firms are stronger these findings not only extend institutional theory to better explain differential effects on different entrants to an organizational field but demonstrate how foreign investors of idiosyncratic origins may proactively build legitimacy in host societies

sticky prices inventories and market power in wholesale gasoline markets a model with costly adjustment of production and costly inventories implies that wholesale gasoline prices will respond with a lag to crude oil cost shocks unlike explanations that rely upon menu costs imperfect information or long term buyer seller relationships this model predicts that futures prices for gasoline will adjust incompletely to crude oil price shocks that occur close to the expiration date of the futures contract we test and confirm this implication examining wholesale price responses in 188 gasoline markets we also find that firms with market power adjust prices more slowly than do competitive firms consistent with the model

speculative bubbles in recent oil price dynamics evidence from a bayesian markov switching state space approach abstract motivated by repeated spikes and crashes during previous decades we investigate whether the heavily financialized market for crude oil has been driven by speculative bubbles in our theoretical modeling we draw on the convenience yield approach in order to approximate the fundamental value of the oil price we separate the oil price fundamental from the bubble component by expressing a standard present value oil price model in state space form we then introduce two markov regimes into the state space representation in order to distinguish between two distinct phases in the bubble process namely one in which the oil price bubble is a stable process and one in which the bubble explodes we estimate the entire markov switching state space specification using an econometrically robust bayesian markov chain monte carlo mcmc methodology based on inferential techniques designed for statistically separating both markov regimes in the bubble process from each other we find robust evidence for the existence of speculative bubbles in recent oil price dynamics

transitional dynamics of the search model with endogenous growth abstract this paper studies the steady state and dynamics of the standard matching model allowing for endogenous capital accumulation and endogenous growth the existence and uniqueness of a balanced growth path is shown along which the relationship between unemployment and growth may not be considered clear cut the model also exhibits interesting dynamic features and suggests some kind of asymmetry in the adjustment of employment over the cycle a collection of numerical experiments finally shows that a linear approximation of the model may yield a dynamic scheme that is reasonably close to the one obtained with the nonlinear model and that this feature is very robust to changes in particular assumptions made on the specification of various functions

a three stage theory of international expansion the link between multinationality and performance in the service sector it is generally assumed that the performance of a firm improves with greater multinationality yet recent empirical studies have shown both a u shaped relationship which suggests an initially negative effect of international expansion on performance before the positive returns of international expansion are realized and an inverted u shaped relationship which suggests that international expansion beyond an optimal level is again detrimental to performance and results in a negative slope this paper proposes a new unified three stage theory of international expansion that incorporates both concepts in a sigmoid hypothesis it then tests this on data from 11 service industries highlighting the difference between knowledge based and capital intensive service sectors

the intertemporal substitution model of labour market fluctuations an empirical analysis the paper uses two approaches to study whether aggregate fluctuations in employment and unemployment may be explained within a market clearing framework as intertemporal substitution in labour supply first log linear equations for labour supply and unemployment are estimated using a forecasting model to measure wage and price expectations second a utility function is used to derive and estimate an equation for labour supply as a function of the current real wage and consumption the influence of expected future real wages and interest rates is captured by the consumption variable the empirical results do not support the intertemporal substitution model

convenience yield without the convenience a spatial temporal interpretation of storage under backwardation a mathematical programming model of the wheat marketing system of western australia manifests a typical pattern of regionwide stocks held at a negative intertemporal spread measured at the port no stocks are held at a monetary loss in terms of local prices any apparent loss is an illusion from spatial aggregation of stocks and attribution of incentives at one locality to storers at all locations moreover as the premium for immediate delivery at the port rises stocks increase at relatively inaccessible inconvenient locations where prices are low allowing more to be shipped from locations more convenient to the port

learning matching and growth we examine an endogenous growth model in which market frictions are an integral part of the economic environment workers invest in education when young which raises their productivity onice employed the level of schooling also acts as a key determinant of the rate of economic growth by influencing workers ability to accumulate additional human capital on the job once schooling is completed workers search for employment the division of the surplus between vacancies and searching workers is characterized as is the optimal level of education the economy may display multiple steady state growth paths

equilibrium search unemployment endogenous participation and labor market flows the sustainability of welfare states requires high employment and high participation to raise the tax base to analyze labor supply in a world with market frictions we propose and solve a macro model of the labor market with unemployment and labor force participation as endogenous and distinct states in our world workers decisions of participating are determined by an entry decision and an exit decision a calibration of the model improves the usual representations of labor markets since it quantitatively accounts for the observed flows between employment and nonparticipation the paper investigates also the effect of payroll taxes and unemployment benefits on participation decisions taxes reduce entries and increase exits whereas unemployment benefits at a given job finding rate raise entries and have ambiguous effects on exits jel j2 j6

an anatomy of state control in the globalization of state owned enterprises integrating agency theory with institutional analysis in international business we propose a state control perspective to analyze government control mechanisms in emerging economies globalization of state owned enterprises soes we identify two types of state control that influence soes globalization decisions and the degree of globalization dog state ownership control and executives political connections both of which are contingent upon the home country s evolving institutional environments using a two step corporate globalization decision model and 17 272 firm year observations of non financial chinese listed companies we find a strong impact of both types of state control on soes globalization although the impacts differ between the periods before and after domestic governance reform and across different globalization decision steps the diminishing impact of executives political connections and the increasing impact of state ownership control on firms dog demonstrate the evolving relationship between the state and the managers as well as the dynamics of state control in globalizing soes

international expansion of emerging market enterprises a springboard perspective in this article we present a springboard perspective to describe the internationalization of emerging market multinational corporations em mnes em mnes use international expansion as a springboard to acquire strategic resources and reduce their institutional and market constraints at home in so doing they overcome their latecomer disadvantage in the global stage via a series of aggressive risk taking measures by aggressively acquiring or buying critical assets from mature mnes to compensate for their competitive weaknesses we discuss unique traits that characterize the international expansion of em mnes and the unique motivations that steer them toward internationalization we further delineate peculiar strategies and activities undertaken by these firms in pursuit of international expansion as well as internal and external forces that might compel or facilitate their propulsion into the global scene we finally explain the risks and remedies associated with this international springboarding strategy and highlight major issues meriting further investigation

keeping it within bounds regression analysis of proportions in international business international business researchers commonly estimate proportions percentages rates or fractions so called proportional dependent variables in this paper we posit that two regression strategies are particularly pertinent to the international business field tobit and fractional regression reviewing recent international business research we find that while fractional regression is rarely used analyses from tobit regression are often incomplete or erroneously interpreted with consequences for the validity of the reported results accordingly we clarify how researchers should choose between tobit and fractional regression and interpret their results we present insights based on simple simulations and data examples with associated stata code and a decision tree for choosing between types of models for use with proportional dependent variables

the international entrepreneurial dynamics of accelerated internationalisation the initial stages of internationalisation prior to firms having established their definitive sources of advantage remain the relatively unexplored area of the international business ib literature at these early stages where firms are seeking to establish themselves and new multinational firms are appearing to exploit new opportunities created by globalisation the entrepreneurial aspects of internationalisation come to the fore in this paper we aim to delineate an emerging field of ib scholarship we use the appearance of international new ventures and the phenomenon of accelerated internationalisation that they feature to identify a set of issues that has slipped through the net of some of the existing ib frameworks we propose that the salient features of accelerated and early internationalisation by the newly internationalising firm are best captured in a framework that is found at the intersection of entrepreneurial and internationalisation perspectives which we propose be known as international entrepreneurial dynamics we discuss such a framework in terms of entry points and pathways mapped by firms as they probe the ib arena and the key factors that impinge on behaviour and strategic choices in line with recent developments in the entrepreneurship literature these are grouped into three milestones of entrepreneurial processes that extend across national boundaries 1 the discovery of new opportunities 2 the deployment of resources in the exploitation of these opportunities and 3 the engagement with competitors implications for mne and internationalisation theory are discussed

a new approach to data access and research transparency dart recent debates on transparency and replicability suggest that jibs needs to update its approach on data access and research transparency dart we propose a series of initiatives knowing well that there is a balance to be struck there are clear benefits on the one hand chief among these the potential for learning and knowledge accumulation and equally manifest challenges on the other the imperative to respect privacy confidentiality and intellectual property rights without addressing these challenges will there be the high quality data on which the benefits depend we present access and transparency objectives and set out how an actionable and effective approach towards dart will be implemented but also address ethical legal and organizational challenges of concern to us as a scholarly community

bubbles in food commodity markets four decades of evidence abstract we use daily prices from individual futures contracts to test whether speculative bubbles exist in 12 agricultural markets and to identify whether patterns of bubble behavior exist over time the samples begin as far back as 1970 and run through 2011 the findings demonstrate that all 12 agricultural markets experienced multiple periods of price explosiveness however bubble episodes represent a very small portion between 1 5 and 2 of price behavior during the 42 year period in addition most bubbles are short lived with 80 90 lasting fewer than 10 days though receiving far less attention negative bubbles contribute significantly to price behavior accounting for more than one third of explosive episodes markets over react during both positive and negative explosive episodes leading to a correction as they return to a random walk this adjustment back to fundamental values is most pronounced with positive bubbles particularly in the earlier part of the sample while the magnitudes of the corrections are generally small there were a few instances of significant increases in prices and large over reactions most notably in the softs e g cocoa 1973 coffee 1994 cotton 2010 we also find that explosive periods did not become more common or last longer in the second half of the sample period and that the most recent bubble episodes may not have been as severe as in mid 1970s

job search and cyclical unemployment a model economy is described that integrates job search and signal extraction analysis equilibrium differs from search models without signal extraction in that even with a fixed real sector unemployment fluctuates stochastically it differs from standard signal extraction models because search introduces persistence in fact unemployment follows a second order difference equation with coefficient that are functions of current and lagged values of the stochastic shocks thus the model has the potential to mimic actual business cycle data despite the fact that the underlying shocks are independently and identically distributed policy implications are discussed

a comparison of futures and forward prices abstract this paper uses the pricing models of cox ingersoll and ross 1981 richard and sundaresan 1981 and french 1982 to examine the relation between futures and forward prices for copper and silver there are significant differences between these prices the average differences are generally consistent with the predictions of the futures and forward price models however these models are not helpful in describing intra sample variations in the futures forward price differences this failure is apparently caused by measurement errors in both the price differences and in the explanatory variables

the economics of pollution permit banking in the context of title iv of the 1990 clean air act amendments abstract this paper presents a model of the collective emission permit banking behavior of electricity generating units affected by title iv of the clean air act amendments of 1990 a rigorous treatment of the constraint that pollution permits cannot be borrowed from future allocations is introduced this approach enables an analysis of the impact of future changes in electricity demand regulations and technologies on the present permit price and emissions level the effect of uncertainty on the banking behavior is also explored

date stamping historical periods of oil price explosivity 1876 2014 article i nfo this paper sets out to date stamp periods of historic oil price explosivity using the generalized sup adf gsadf test procedure developed by phillips shi and yu 2013 the date stamping procedure used in this paper is ef fective at identifying periodically collapsing bubbles a feature found lacking with previous bubble detection methods weset out to identify periods of oilpriceexplosivity relative to the general price leveland oilinventory supplies in the us since 1876 and 1920 respectively the recursive identification algorithms used in this study identify multiple periods of price explosivity and as such provides future researchers with a reference for study ing the macroeconomic impact of historical periods of significant oil price build ups

an evolutionary approach to understanding international business activity the co evolution of mnes and the institutional environment this paper examines the co evolution of mne activities and institutions external and internal to the firm we develop a theoretical framework for this analysis that draws on the more recent writings of douglass north on institutions as a response to complex forms of uncertainty associated with the rise in global economic interconnectedness and of richard nelson on the co evolution of technology and institutions we link historical changes in the character of mne activities to changes in the institutional environment and highlight the scope for firm level creativity and institutional entrepreneurship that may lead to co evolution with the environment we argue that the main drivers for institutional entrepreneurship are now found in the increasing autonomy of mne subsidiaries thus mne agency derives from more decentralized forms of experimentation in international corporate networks which competence creating nodes of new initiatives can co evolve with local institutions unlike most other streams of related literature our approach connects patterns of institutional change in wider business systems with more micro processes of variety generation and experimentation within and across individual firms this form of co evolutionary analysis is increasingly important to understanding the interrelationships between mne activities and public policy

state ownership effect on firms fdi ownership decisions under institutional pressure a study of chinese outward investing firms this study investigates the effect of state ownership on chinese firms foreign direct investment fdi ownership decisions it adopts a political perspective to extend the application of institutional theory in international business research specifically it examines firms heterogeneous responses to external institutional processes during foreign market entry while taking into consideration the political affiliation of firms with the external institutions we argue that state ownership creates the political affiliation of a firm with its home country government which increases the firm s resource dependence on home country institutions while at the same time influencing its image as perceived by host country institutional constituents such resource dependence and political perception increase firms tendency to conform to rather than resist isomorphic institutional pressures we tested our hypotheses using primary data for 132 fdi entries made by chinese firms during 2000 2006 and we found that the effects of home regulatory host regulatory and host normative pressures on a firm to choose a joint ownership structure were stronger when the share of equity held by state entities in the firm was high

intra and inter organizational imitative behavior institutional influences on japanese firms entry mode choice this paper compares the predictions of transaction cost and institutional theories in an empirical study of the entry mode choice for 1 194 japanese foreign subsidiaries the findings indicate the institutional model adds significant explanatory power over and above the predictions of the transaction cost model using the concepts of frequency based trait based and outcome based imitation i find support for institutional isomorphism as later entrants tended to follow the entry mode patterns established by earlier entrants isomorphic behavior was also present within a firm as firms exhibited consistency in entry mode choices across time further a firm s investment experience moderated institutional influences on entry mode choice

the impact of food prices on conflict revisited abstractstudies that examine the impact of food prices on conflict usually assume that all changes in international food prices are exogenous shocks for individual countries or local areas by is

an application of models of speculative behaviour to oil prices abstract we estimate three different models of speculative behaviour using oil price data our findings provide support for the claim by phillips and yu 2011 and gilbert 2010 that a bubble in oil prices existed for a short period in 2008

comparing capitalisms understanding institutional diversity and its implications for international business this paper examines the role of institutional analysis within the field of international business ib studies within ib institutions matter but the view of institutions tends to be thin utilizing summary indicators rather than detailed description and thus approaches institutions as unidimensional variables that impact on particular facets of business activity this paper argues that ib research would be usefully advanced by greater attention to comparing the topography of institutional landscapes and understanding their diversity a number of alternative case based approaches are outlined that draw on a growing comparative capitalisms literature in sociology and political science the paper develops a number of empirical examples to show the utility and limits of these approaches for ib scholars

a dynamic equilibrium model of search bargaining and money abstract this paper considers dynamic equilibria in a model with random matching strategic bargaining and money equilibrium in the bargaining game is characterized in terms of a simple differential equation when we embed this characterization into the monetary economy the model can generate outcomes such as limit cycles that never arise if one imposes a myopic nash bargaining solution as has been done in the past journal of economic literature classification numbers c78 d83 e31

foreign direct investment and host country productivity the american automotive component industry in the 1980s although several studies have shown that inward foreign direct investment fdi often leads to greater host country productivity researchers have yet to determine the relative importance of direct technology transfer and competitive pressure to assess the relative importance of the two channels we examine the us auto component industry between 1979 and 1991 during this period japanese automobile assemblers began to produce vehicles in north america and began to purchase inputs from us auto component manufacturers those us manufacturers that sold components to japanese transplants would be the direct recipients of any technologies transferred from the japanese although we find that the direct investment by japanese assemblers was associated with overall productivity improvement in the us auto component industry we find little evidence of direct technology transfer the productivity growth of us suppliers affiliated with japanese assemblers was no greater than that of other non affiliated us suppliers further we find that the japanese assemblers tended to purchase components from less productive us suppliers and moreover that low productivity suppliers that sold goods to japanese assemblers had a higher survival rate than low productivity suppliers that did not sell to japanese firms the results suggest that increased competitive pressure in the auto sector was the main cause of overall productivity improvement at least during the initial stages of fdi of the 1980s

the dynamic value of mne political embeddedness the case of the chinese automobile industry this paper examines the complex relationship between the embeddedness of multinational enterprises mnes in host country political networks and their long run competitive positions in host emerging markets we report the findings of a longitudinal study of the chinese automobile sector from the early 1980s to the mid 2000s using data from 142 interviews over 11 years and a wide range of secondary sources we explore the process through which the value of political embeddedness changed over time in the face of profound and rapid changes in host country business environments on the basis of this longitudinal study the paper unravels the underlying mechanisms that lead to the declining and even negative value of deep political embeddedness by mnes in a politically stable emerging economy

who gets what the mne the national state and the distributional effects of globalization globalization is the outcome of the interface between national states and mnes it is a negotiated solution rather than perfect market equilibrium even in a global liberalized world national states are trying to generate as much welfare for their residents as they can while mnes try to maximize their value this creates a bargaining situation a stylized game theory model is presented and discussed in order to gain insights into the income distributional effects of the globalization process two important features of the model are a that there is a need for a carefully spelt out strategy and b that optimal solutions depend on an ability to identify the elements of the bargaining where the opportunity cost is low a case study of the negotiation between the state of israel and intel is presented as an illustration for this general model

host country headquarters and an mne s subsequent within country diversifications we propose that the establishment of a host country headquarters hchq in a large emerging market can be viewed as part of a multinational enterprise s mne political strategy to facilitate its within country diversifications by reducing institutional intervention of the host government using a sample of mnes in china in the period 1979 2005 we find that mnes with an hchq had a greater number of subsequent diversifications in china as compared with those mnes without an hchq this effect was more prominent when the diversifications were in domains with a higher level of institutional intervention

taxes subsidies and equilibrium unemployment this paper considers the effects of wage taxes employment subsidies and unemployment benefits in a simple model of equilibrium search unemployment is determined by the equality of job matchings and job separations job vacancies are determined by a zero profit condition and wages by a nash bargain between the meeting firm and worker i show that marginal wage taxes influence the firm s and worker s equilibrium sharing rule whereas employment subsidies and unemployment benefits influence only the surplus shared hence tax financed subsidies reduce wages and raise employment and vacancies whereas tax financed unemployment benefits raise wages and reduce employment and vacancies in this paper we consider the effects of wage taxes employment subsidies and unemployment benefits on equilibrium search unemployment in a model where wages are determined competitively by the meeting firm and worker discussions about the desirability of taxes and subsidies and their effect on employment and wages abound in the labour economics literature yet the only tax or subsidy that has been systematically discussed in a competitive search framework is a lump sum unemployment benefit the reason for this might be that the structure of the model is such that it is ideally suited to the study of unemployment benefits whereas traditional supply and demand analysis could arguably cope with other kinds of taxes this might be true in some cases but if it is at all appropriate to think of equilibrium unemployment as coming out of an essentially competitive framework when the process which brings together jobs and workers is characterized by frictions traditional supply and demand analysis may not be rich enough to give us all the answers we need 1 the model of this paper is a simple equilibrium model with endogenous unemployment supply of jobs i e demand for labour and real wages unemployment exists because unemployed workers and unfilled jobs cannot find each other instantaneously in the interval of time required to match all workers and jobs some existing job worker pairs break up providing a new flow into unemployment thus unemployment can never be eliminated in equilibrium flows into and flows out of unemployment are equal wages are set endogenously by generalized nash bargains between the individual firm and worker the equilibrium wage rate is shown to depend on all the parameters of the model and to be determined simultaneously with equilibrium unemployment the driving force in the model which provides the link between wages and unemployment is the rate of job vacancies the total number of jobs is determined by zero profit conditions because of constant returns to scale the number of jobs taken up each period depends positively on the number of job vacancies because a typical unemployed worker will have a better chance of locating a job when there are more vacancies if the real wage rate falls the expected profits from a job rise firms open up more vacancies to take advantage of this and so more jobs are taken up but as vacancies rise and

in search of the natural rate of unemployment abstract the natural rate of unemployment can be measured as the time varying steady state of a structural vector autoregression for post war us data the natural rate implied by this approach is more volatile than most previous estimates with its movements accounting for the bulk of the variation in the unemployment rate as well as substantial portions of the variation in aggregate output and inflation these movements in turn can be related to variables associated with labor market search theory including unemployment benefits labor productivity real wages and sectoral shifts in the labor market there is also a strong negative relationship between inflation and the corresponding measure of cyclical unemployment supporting the existence of a short run phillips curve

varieties of capitalism and the internationalization of state owned enterprises this article sheds light on how the internationalization of state owned enterprises is influenced by the state involvement in ownership and by the home country s institutional settings integrating international business literature with the debate on the varieties of capitalism we contend that state dominated enterprises internationalize more less than privately owned enterprises in coordinated liberal market economies whereas they exhibit an inconstant behavior in state influenced market economies our analysis on a sample of enterprises pertaining to 20 oecd countries supports our hypotheses this article adds to studies on the influence of institutions on firms internationalization and has implications for both managers and policymakers

market liberalization and firm performance during china s economic transition this paper examines the impact of market liberalization on firm performance through institutional changes during the economic reform in china the conceptualization focuses on the decentralization of control ownership restructuring and industrial policy as the primary institutional changes to implement market liberalization in china these institutional changes affect firm performance by shaping managerial incentives affecting transaction and agency costs and making selective resource allocations across and within industries using a large scale data set including 23 577 firms between 1992 and 1996 the study examines how market liberalization affects the profitability and productivity of chinese firms and the relationship between ownership change and the performance of state owned enterprises

an investigation of the harvest decision of timber firms in the south east united states in the forestry literature stochastic extensions of the classic faustmann model have become the predominant models of optimal harvesting on even aged timber stands a recent attempt to estimate a stochastic version of the faustmann model left several puzzling results unexplained provencher 1995 this paper reports on new estimation and analyses undertaken to resolve these puzzles of particular note is the result that the value of using correct price forecasts in the harvest decision is much lower than indicated by recent simulation studies perhaps because variability in convenience yield dampens the expected gain from exploiting stochastic variation in timber prices

diplomatic and corporate networks bridges to foreign locations firms and governments operate in broad networks in which the home government and its diplomatic service are a critical node or a referral point between firms and potential partners in foreign locations thus diplomatic relations between countries matter for the choice of foreign investment location using a network perspective we argue that the extent to which good diplomatic relations induce firms to invest in friendly host countries depends on their political connections to home governments those with stronger ties to home governments can better access and leverage intergovernmental diplomatic connections thus benefiting potentially from enhanced access to information reduced political risks and increased legitimacy such ability of politically connected firms is more useful where weak institutional impartiality in the host country inhibits neutral treatment of foreign investors empirically using overseas investment location decisions by chinese firms we find that the types of home government ties i e whether they are organizational or personal and whether those relationships are with central or local goverments and the impartiality of host institutions are both important contingencies affecting firms utilization of diplomatic relations we discuss the implications of our study to research on network theory political ties and internationalization of emerging market firms

does market oriented institutional change in an emerging economy make business group affiliated multinationals perform better an institution based view viewing market oriented institutional change as a two staged process we propose that the effects of market oriented institutional change on two organizational forms business group affiliated and independent firms are different depending on the stage of institutional change specifically we examine how the two distinct periods of market oriented institutional change that is institutional friction and institutional convergence affect business group affiliated firms and independent firms in their abilities to profit from international diversification using data on 140 korean manufacturing multinational firms from 1993 to 2003 we find that emerging economy firms face an international diversification discount a negative relationship between international diversification and firm performance we also find that business group affiliation affects the international diversification discount differently during the two periods of market oriented institutional change particularly when firm performance is measured by the market to book value mbv the moderating effect of business group affiliation on the relationship between international diversification and mbv is negative during the institutional frictions period but becomes positive during the institutional convergence period in the later stage of institutional change our findings warn against viewing market oriented institutional change as a discrete event highlighting the importance of recognizing the qualitatively distinctive nature of different periods of market oriented institutional change in future research

an empirical examination of the form of the relationship between multinationality and performance this paper reports findings from a study that systematically evaluated the form of the relationship between multinationality and performance in contrast to most of the prior conceptualizations that rely on linear monotonic models of the linkage this study examined a curvilinear model that addresses both the costs and benefits associated with multinationality it used time series techniques to capture both the static and dynamic components of the relationship results show that increasing levels of multinationality bring significant performance benefits up to a certain optimum level beyond which benefits begin to decelerate while costs accelerate

partial privatization and firm performance most privatization programs begin with a period of partial privatization in which only non controlling shares of firms are sold on the stock market since management control is not transferred to private owners it is widely contended that partial privatization has little impact this perspective ignores the role that the stock market can play in monitoring and rewarding managerial performance even when the government remains the controlling owner using data on indian state owned enterprises we find that partial privatization has a positive impact on profitability productivity and investment widespread privatization in recent decades has generated a large empirical literature concerning the effect of ownership on firm performance most studies find that privatization has a positive impact on the profitability and efficiency of firms see megginson and netter 2001 for a recent survey 1 the firms in these studies have had a majority of their assets privatized and control rights have been transferred from the government to private owners surprisingly little is known about the effect of partial privatization where the government remains the controlling owner this paper seeks to address this gap in the literature by investigating whether the performance of state owned enterprises in india is affected by the sale of non controlling equity stakes on the stock market

adapting and sustaining operations in weak institutional environments a business ecosystem assessment of a chinese mne in central africa multinational enterprises mnes sometimes pursue opportunities in largely uncharted distinctive institutional environments how do these firms sustain operations in such settings we explore how mnes tailor and maintain operations in institutionally weak precarious and challenging host country environments such as those devastated by conflicts we draw on the business ecosystem framework and analyze a qualitative longitudinal case study of a chinese state owned mne that entered and developed its operations in the democratic republic of congo drc in central africa our findings indicate that after entry the mne sustained its operations in the drc by engaging in collective actions and coevolving with key stakeholders within its business ecosystem these stakeholders included the home and host governments state owned enterprises privately owned enterprises and local communities our qualitative data further suggest that the mne s business ecosystem evolved through three stages exploring establishing and embedding and that within this ecosystem the key stakeholders also coevolved with the mne by adopting new roles over time

the unemployment volatility puzzle is wage stickiness the answer i discuss the failure of the canonical search and matching model to match the cyclical volatility in the job finding rate i show that job creation in the model is influenced by wages in new matches i summarize microeconometric evidence and find that wages in new matches are volatile and consistent with the model s key predictions therefore explanations of the unemployment volatility puzzle have to preserve the cyclical volatility of wages i discuss a modification of the model based on fixed matching costs that can increase cyclical unemployment volatility and is consistent with wage flexibility in new matches

commodity prices convenience yields and inflation abstract this paper provides evidence that the two leading principal components in a panel of 23 commodity convenience yields have statistically and quantitatively important predictive power for inflation even after controlling for unemployment gap and oil prices the results hold up in out of sample forecasts across forecast horizons and across g7 countries the convenience yields also explain commodity prices and can be seen as informational variables about future economic conditions as conveyed by the futures markets a bootstrap procedure for conducting inference when the principal components are used as regressors is also proposed

growth and unemployment short run and long run tradeoffs abstract we consider the role of search unemployment and wage bargaining in determining the relationship between growth and unemployment while the long run tradeoffs between unemployment and growth are weak the short run tradeoffs are much stronger their comovement varies along the transitional path and depends upon the underlying structural change the consequences of the growth unemployment nexus for fiscal policy are addressed the analysis provides insights into the debate regarding the appropriate fiscal policy in light of the increased debt following the initial response to the recent financial crisis our analysis strongly supports an increase in government investment as the appropriate fiscal policy

state governance and technological innovation in emerging economies state owned enterprise restructuration and institutional logic dissonance in china s high speed train sector can state governance spur firm innovation in an emerging economy and transform state owned enterprises soes from dying dinosaurs to dynamic dynamos we seek an answer to this question by investigating the innovative performance of restructured soes in china s high speed train sector we expect that soe restructuration will improve firm innovation but that the degree of improvement will depend on how the state conducts firm governance building on institutional theory we distinguish state governance via equity ownership and administrative affiliation in an emerging economy with market hierarchy institutional conflicts under such conflicts restructured soes experience institutional logic dissonance which hinders organizational change for technological innovation we hypothesize that state ownership exacerbates institutional logic dissonance at a restructured soe thus limiting innovation improvement from restructuration in contrast state affiliation mitigates firm dissonance and hence augments such improvement we find empirical evidence for these hypotheses in a comprehensive panel of high speed train manufacturers in china between 1989 and 2015 this study contributes to the institution based theory of technological innovation in emerging economies on the practical front our findings suggest that emerging states may adopt arms length governance to spur soe innovation and unleash these dynamic dynamos to fuel sustainable economic growth

how much does subnational region matter to foreign subsidiary performance evidence from fortune global 500 corporations investment in china what explains the heterogeneity of foreign subsidiary performance previous studies have emphasized the importance of industry corporate parent and home country effects on the variation of foreign subsidiary performance building on recent international business and economic geography research this study examines the extent to which subnational region effects can also explain such performance variation we empirically decompose the variance of the performance of fortune global 500 corporations subsidiaries in china during 1998 2006 results show that not only are subnational region effects statistically significant in explaining the variation of subsidiary performance but their interactions with industry corporate parent and home country effects are also significant and economically important we further show that subnational region effects tend to be stronger in the period prior to china s wto accession and in the country s less developed subnational regions our findings highlight the importance of considering both the direct and indirect roles of subnational region in shaping firms strategy and performance in international business research

the benefits of storage and non renewable resource price dynamics both the theory of storage and the hotelling model play a prominent role in the study of non renewable resource prices this paper combines these approaches by modifying the hotelling model to allow firms to hold inventory in addition to in ground reserves contributing three new results first inventory is more likely to be held if future demand and or the marginal cost of extraction are uncertain second the market price of the commodity is based on the theory of storage when inventory is held third the optimal extraction of the resource is based on the hotelling model a la fois la theorie de l entreprosage et le modele d hotelling jouent un role important dans l etude du prix des ressources non renouvelables le present memoire combine ces approches en modifiant le modele d hotelling pour permettre aux entreprises de detenir des inventaires en plus de reserves souterraines cela produit trois resultats d abord on est davantage susceptible de detenir des inventaires si la demande future et ou le cout marginal de l extraction sont incertains ensuite le prix du marche de la ressource est fonde sur la theorie de l entreposage quand inventaire il y a enfin l extraction optimale de la ressource est basee sur le modele d hotelling

phase transitions and emergence of entrepreneurship the transformation of chinese soes over time abstract configurational theory has been a key building block of organizational research an understanding of how certain configurations evolve over time especially during discontinuous changes such as economic transition has been largely a missing link in the literature considering economic transition as a process rather than an outcome this study examined strategic adaptations among chinese soes in two phases 1990 and 2002 findings from two surveys and from interviews revealed that environmental characteristics changed significantly over time and that firms responded with more entrepreneurial strategies aimed at firm growth rather than at satisfying state planners such changes were related to improved performance the study closes by offering implications for research and practice

restructuring of firms in transition ownership institutions and openness to trade we develop a theoretical framework for defensive and strategic restructuring and provide estimates of restructuring in privatized firms in an advanced transition economy slovenia our rich data point to both types of restructuring as well credit rationing and bargaining with respect to investment privatized firms display profit maximizing behavior and a firm s export orientation and institutional features such as insider vs outsider privatization employee ownership and employee control do not affect the firm s employment and investment behavior the results suggest that a major exposure to world competition induces similar economic behavior in firms with different structural and institutional characteristics

borrowing constraints collateral fluctuations and the labor market abstract this paper studies the effects of changes in collateral requirements on the cyclical properties of unemployment and job creation i develop a general equilibrium model in which labor market frictions prevent the costless adjustment of employment financial frictions arise from an imperfect enforcement contract an environment in which borrowing limits are linked to the firm s physical capital stock can quantitatively account for the sluggish response of labor market variables to productivity shocks i find that fluctuations in those variables are mainly driven by changes in financial conditions the model can explain 75 of the variation in job creation observed in the data and it can also account for the persistent reduction in both output and leverage that follows a contraction in credit availability

labor search and matching in macroeconomics abstract the labor search and matching model plays a growing role in macroeconomic analysis this paper provides a critical selective survey of the literature four fundamental questions are explored how are unemployment job vacancies and employment determined as equilibrium phenomena what determines worker flows and transition rates from one labor market state to another how are wages determined what role do labor market dynamics play in explaining business cycles and growth the survey describes the basic model reviews its theoretical extensions and discusses its empirical applications in macroeconomics the model has been developed against the background of difficulties with the use of the neo classical frictionless model of the labor market in macroeconomics its success includes the modelling of labor market outcomes as equilibrium phenomena the reasonable fit of the data and when inserted into business cycle models improved performance of more general macroeconomic models at the same time there is evidence against the nash solution used for wage setting and an active debate as to the ability of the model to account for some of the cyclical facts

search wage bargains and cycles in this paper i describe an equilibrium model of job matchings with perfect foresight that has the following property the number of people looking for work changes temporarily when there is a temporary shock to the value of labour s marginal product it does not change when the shock is permanent by contrast real wages change temporarily by a small amount when the shock is temporary but change permanently and by a bigger amount when the shock is permanent thus the model offers an explanation for the observation that over the cycle small wage changes are associated with changes in unemployment whereas secularly wage growth does not seem to affect the rate of unemployment the two most common explanations for this observation in the literature the phelps lucas misperceptions model and the lucas rapping intertemporal substitution model are well grounded in equilibrium theory but they have not stood up well to empirical testing the misperceptions model requires more ignorance of aggregate changes than can be reasonably assumed whereas the intertemporal substitution model requires bigger wage elasticities of labour supply than those estimated in the model of this paper neither misperceptions nor changes in the supply of labour play a role in generating the unemployment cycle all agents observe the shocks when they occur and they anticipate correctly the economy s adjustment path but like the new classical explanations of the cycle the model is an equilibrium one in the sense that all private gains from trade are fully exploited at all phases of the cycle although the social gains from trade may not be fully exploited because of search externalities the cycle i derive here is not due to externalities unlike other related perfect foresight models such as diamond s 1982a the structure of the model is such that the externalities do not give rise to multiple equilibria the key element of the model which is responsible for the transmission of output shocks to unemployment is the equation for wages in markets where the allocation of jobs takes place through search both firms and workers have some monopoly power a point emphasised by mortensen 1970 though he attributed only temporary monopoly power and only to firms i use the nash bargaining solution to solve for the equilibrium wage rate and show that the firm s and worker s alternative returns threat points or

institutional cultural and transaction cost influences on entry mode choice and performance in this study we examine foreign market entry mode choice and firm performance for a sample of european union firms examining both financial and non financial performance measures we attempt to determine if firms that select their entry mode based on transaction cost institutional context and cultural context variables perform better than firms that make other mode choices we found that mode choice did matter firms whose mode choice could be predicted by the extended transaction cost model performed significantly better on both financial and non financial measures than did firms whose mode choice could not be predicted by the extended transaction cost model implications for future research are discussed

what we talk about when we talk about global mindset managerial cognition in multinational corporations recent developments in the global economy and in multinational corporations have placed significant emphasis on the cognitive orientations of managers giving rise to a number of concepts such as global mindset that are presumed to be associated with the effective management of multinational corporations this paper reviews the literature on global mindset and clarifies some of the conceptual confusion surrounding the construct we identify common themes across writers suggesting that the majority of studies fall into one of three research perspectives cultural strategic and multidimensional we also identify two constructs from the social sciences cosmopolitanism and cognitive complexity that underlie the perspectives found in the literature we then use these two constructs to develop an integrative theoretical framework of global mindset we then provide a critical assessment of the field of global mindset and suggest directions for future theoretical and empirical research

unemployment dynamics and labour market tightness an empirical evaluation of matching function models the implications of matching function models for the relationship between labour market tightness and the transition probability into employment are summarized these implications are then tested using monthly data for three canadian provinces british columbia ontario and quebec testing methods use flexible regression techniques so as to reduce the effect of any extraneous restrictions the results show rough concordance between theoretical assumptions and empirical facts evidence of non linearity in the estimated relationships favours a search theoretic model of labour markets over one based on queues and some quantitative results offer guidance to those using calibrated search models in theoretical analysis

balancing private and state ownership in emerging markets telecommunications infrastructure country industry and firm influences bargaining between host states and investors over the terms of investment in sensitive sectors of the economy generates political and economic tensions in this study we investigate the factors that contribute to the outcomes of those negotiations as measured by the private vs state owned share of newly consummated telecommunications infrastructure projects we find that private ownership is positively associated with overall economic development and investment liberalization in the host country and with greenfield vs divestiture and joint venture vs wholly owned projects private ownership is negatively associated with existing telecommunications infrastructure higher levels of state ownership of foreign investing firms and the technological sophistication of the projects our analysis also shows a curvilinear inverted u shaped relationship between investment policy hazards and private ownership this finding supports the insight from transaction cost economics that potential gains from internalization are greatest at intermediate levels of uncertainty

the uppsala internationalization process model revisited from liability of foreignness to liability of outsidership the uppsala internationalization process model is revisited in the light of changes in business practices and theoretical advances that have been made since 1977 now the business environment is viewed as a web of relationships a network rather than as a neoclassical market with many independent suppliers and customers outsidership in relation to the relevant network more than psychic distance is the root of uncertainty the change mechanisms in the revised model are essentially the same as those in the original version although we add trust building and knowledge creation the latter to recognize the fact that new knowledge is developed in relationships

time series representations of economic variables and alternative models of the labour market accepting the hypothesis that the time series facts of the aggregate labour market may be summarized by the linear autoregressive and moving average representations of wages prices unemployment and interest rates implies that a useful theory ought to lead to predictions about these representations following this approach this paper first catalogues many of the time series facts about the aggregate labour market and then compares them against alternative models of the labour market based on the intertemporal substitution and staggered contract hypotheses