re examination of uniform commodity taxes under a non linear income tax system and its implication for production efficiency abstract this paper shows that the result of uniform commodity tax under nonlinear income taxation by atkinson and stiglitz 1976 no longer holds if the production side of an economy is taken into the consideration in particular imposing a non uniform commodity tax can pareto improve welfare even under nonlinear income taxation in addition the paper shows that if the government uses a nonlinear income tax system for income redistribution then the introduction of distortions in the public sector can pareto improve welfare contrary to the results in diamond and mirrlees 1971

optimal commodity taxation and tax reform under unemployment this paper derives the optimal commodity tax formula and the tax reform rule which should be used in a situation of orthodox keynesian unemployment the setting considered is a four good one individual model with fixed real wage implying an excess supply of labor the presentation is very simple and based on intuitive and graphical arguments the emphasis is on comparing our results with the more traditional results derived under full employment

political determinants of electricity provision in small island developing states abstract this paper approaches provision of affordable and reliable electricity in small island developing states sids as a case of public good provision it aims to contribute to our understanding of how regime type and the quality of implementing institutions within political systems affect the prerequisites for successful electrification in sids more specifically we analyse the independent and interdependent effects of level of democracy and control of corruption on per capita household electricity consumption in sids using data from 34 sids over the period 1996 2009 the results show that although the independent effects of level of democracy and control of corruption are sensitive to model specification these two factors do have an interdependent impact on per capita household electricity consumption democratization has positive effects on provision of electricity to the general population only when there is a certain level of corruption control in place the results imply a that it is important for policy actors to acknowledge the interaction between regime type and the quality of implementing institutions and b when planning electrification projects in sids it is necessary to have information about the social and political context in order to design the most effective projects

on optimal non linear taxation and public good provision in an overlapping generations economy abstract using the self selection approach to tax analysis within an olg framework the paper examines optimal non linear labour and capital income taxation and the provision of a durable public good under endogenous wages the marginal tax rules depend on the influence of the tax instruments on self selection and on the income earning abilities of the households in particular we found that production inefficiency occurs in the model justifying capital income taxation for the public good the paper derives a dynamic analogue of the second best samuelson rule encompassing both inter and intragenerational redistributive considerations furthermore the usual conditions guaranteeing the efficiency of the first best samuelson rule are not sufficient in the present model

rare disasters and exchange rates we propose a new model of exchange rates which yields a theory of the forward premium puzzle our explanation combines two ingredients the possibility of rare economic disasters and an asset view of the exchange rate our model is frictionless has complete markets and works for an arbitrary number of countries in the model rare worldwide disasters can occur and affect each country s productivity each country s exposure to disaster risk varies over time according to a mean reverting process ri sky countries command high risk premia they feature a depreciated exchange rate and a high interest rate as their risk premium mean reverts their exchange rate appreciates therefore currencies of high interest rate countries appreciate on average to make the notion of disaster risk more implementable we show how options prices might in principle uncover latent disaster risk and help forecast exchange rate movements we then extend the framework to incorporate two factors a disaster risk factor and a business cycle factor we calibrate the model and obtain quantitatively realistic values for the volatility of the exchange rate the forward premium puzzle regression coefficients and near random walk exchange rate dynamics finally we solve a model of stock markets across countries which yields a series of predictions about the joint behavior of exchange rates bonds options and stocks across countries the evidence from the options market appears to be supportive of the model jel e43 e44 f31 g12 g15

macroeconomic impacts of china s foreign exchange reserve accumulation a vector autoregression analysis using pure sign restriction approach abstractthis study employs pure sign restriction approach analysing the macroeconomic impacts of foreign reserve accumulation and discusses the foreign exchange sterilization behaviour of the people s bank of china pboc sign restriction analysis shows that the effects of reserve accumulation shock are initially ambiguous on all variables but later a positive influence only on base money can be observed with regard to sterilization intervention the effect is significant even though it degrades gradually over time in china the monetary authority actively undertakes sterilization intervention in order to remove the influence of passive release of base money caused by foreign reserve accumulation

small states small problems income growth and volatility in small states abstract small states have attracted a large amount of research in this paper we test whether small states are any different from other states in terms of their income growth and volatility outcomes we find that controlling for location small states have higher per capita gdp than other states this income advantage is largely due to a productivity advantage constituting evidence against the idea that small states suffer from an inability to exploit increasing returns to scale small states also do not have different per capita growth rates than other states small states do have greater volatility of annual growth rates which is in part due to their greater volatility of terms of trade shocks this terms of trade based volatility is in turn due to small states greater openness their greater openness on balance has however a positive net payoff for growth the one differential policy measure that might be relevant for small states is to further open up to international capital markets in order to better diversify risk but the benefits of even that are still unresolved in the literature we conclude that small states are no different from large states and so should receive the same policy advice that large states do

foreign exchange reserve adequacy and exogenous shocks abstractone of the traditional benchmarks in international macroeconomics is that a country should maintain reserves that can cover at least 12 weeks of imports the notion of reserve adequacy however is not static and is intimately associated with the occurrence of financial crises as well as exogenous shocks with many observers using the reduction in reserves below this benchmark as a sign of fragility this article provides a benefit cost type approach to evaluating reserve adequacy the benefits of holding reserves are evaluated using a dynamic random effects probit model of financial crises while the cost of reserve holdings output loss due to an over investment in reserves is obtained from a panel growth equation using the methodology outlined above the study finds that in small states the optimal holding of foreign exchange reserves is approximately 25 weeks of imports approximately 13 weeks higher than the international rule of thumb this estimate of optimal reserve holdings is interrela

optimal redistribution when different workers are indistinguishable using the standard non linear income and commodity taxation framework this paper examines the optimal policy to be adopted when the same labor disutility can receive two opposite interpretations taste for leisure and activity limitation in the absence of complete information about individual characteristics an income tax does not allow to distinguish lazy from handicapped individuals one may however rely on a combination of commodity and income taxes to redistribute from the former to the latter when they differ in their preferences for commodities

a theory of disappointment aversion an axiomatic model of preferences over lotteries is developed it is shown that this model is consistent with the allais paradox includes expected utility theory as a special case and is only one parameter beta richer than the expected utility model allais paradox type behavior is identified with positive values of beta preferences with positive beta are said to be disappointment averse it is shown that risk aversion implies disappointment aversion and that the arrow pratt measures of risk aversion can be generalized in a straight forward manner to the current framework copyright 1991 by the econometric society

does prospect theory explain ipo market behavior we derive a behavioral measure of the ipo decision maker s satisfaction with the underwriter s performance based on loughran and ritter 2002 and assess its ability to explain the decision maker s choice among underwriters in subsequent securities offerings controlling for other known factors ipo firms are less likely to switch underwriters when our behavioral measure indicates they were satisfied with the ipo underwriter s performance underwriters also extract higher fees for subsequent transactions involving satisfied decision makers although our tests suggest that the behavioral model has explanatory power they do not speak directly to whether deviations from expected utility maximization determine patterns in ipo initial returns the primary equity or ipo markets are subject to a variety of well known idiosyncratic patterns not least the tendency for ipos to appear underpriced on the first day of trading the profession has invested heavily in explanations for these patterns see ritter and welch 2002 and jenkinson and ljungqvist 2001 for recent reviews the vast majority of theoretical work in the area builds at least implicitly on the premise that market participants are rational and maximize expected utility subject to the burden of market frictions asymmetric information of one sort or another is the friction most widely examined and there is a substantial body of evidence suggesting that such frictions account for at least some of the cross sectional and time variation in the idiosyncratic patterns and yet the question remains whether we can explain more than a small fraction of variation in the data recent events related to the dot corn bubble of the late 1990s lend weight to this concern and lead ritter and welch 2002 to suggest that shifting the focus of the research agenda will lead to

finite sample bias in iv estimation of intertemporal labor supply models is the intertemporal substitution elasticity really small the empirical literature on intertemporal labor supply behavior documents that the intertemporal elasticity of substitution of labor supply is very low with a plausible range of zero to 0 2 drawing upon the literature on the distribution of instrumental variables iv estimators this paper demonstrates that this conventional wisdom is erroneous because it does not take into account the severe finite sample bias in these estimates that arise from weak instruments this paper adopts several approaches to adjust for the problems induced by these weak instruments the empirical results show that when uncorrected for finite sample bias the two stage least squares 2sls estimate of the elasticity is essentially zero as in most of the previous studies with its valid confidence interval being open ended however when corrected for finite sample bias the estimate becomes approximately 0 5 with a much tighter confidence interval

an intertemporal general equilibrium model of asset prices this paper develops a continuous time general equilibrium model of a simple but complete economy and uses it to examine the behavior of asset prices in this model asset prices and their stochastic properties are determined endogenously one principal result is a partial differential equation which asset prices must satisfy the solution of this equation gives the equilibrium price of any asset in terms of the underlying real variables in the economy in this paper we develop a general equilibrium asset pricing model for use in applied research an important feature of the model is its integration of real and financial markets among other things the model endogenously determines the stochastic process followed by the equilibrium price of any financial asset and shows how this process depends on the underlying real variables the model is fully consistent with rational expectations and maximizing behavior on the part of all agents our framework is general enough to include many of the fundamental forces affecting asset markets yet it is tractable enough to be specialized easily to produce specific testable results furthermore the model can be extended in a number of straightforward ways consequently it is well suited to a wide variety of applications for example in a companion paper cox ingersoll and ross 7 we use the model to develop a theory of the term structure of interest rates many studies have been concerned with various aspects of asset pricing under uncertainty the most relevant to our work are the important papers on intertemporal asset pricing by merton 19 and lucas 16 working in a continuous time framework merton derives a relationship among the equilibrium expected rates of return on assets he shows that when investment opportunities are changing randomly over time this relationship will include effects which have no analogue in a static one period model lucas considers an economy with homogeneous individuals and a single consumption good which is produced by a number of processes the random output of these processes is exogenously determined and perishable assets are defined as claims to all or a part of the output of a process and the equilibrium determines the asset prices our theory draws on some elements of both of these papers like merton we formulate our model in continuous time and make full use of the analytical tractability that this affords the economic structure of our model is somewhat similar to that of lucas however we include both endogenous production and

the implications of increasing globalization and regionalism for the economic growth of small island states abstract this paper provides an overview of the implications of globalization and increasing regionalism for small island states in the context of the critical determinants of their economic growth a brief outline of the globalization process is provided followed by a discussion of regionalism and the trend in subnational regional autonomy this is followed by an overview of the empirical literature on the critical factors determining the growth of small states next is an analysis of the implications for small island states of increasing globalization and regionalism in the context of the critical growth factors identified in the preceding section the paper concludes by proposing an agenda for further research into the implications for small island states of the impact of globalization on specific growth factors

indivisible labor and the business cycle abstract a growth model with shocks to technology is studied labor is indivisible so all variability in hours worked is due to fluctuations in the number employed we find that unlike previous equilibrium models of the business cycle this economy displays large fluctuations in hours worked and relatively small fluctuations in productivity this finding is independent of individuals willingness to substitute leisure across time this and other findings are the result of studying and comparing summary statistics describing this economy an economy with divisible labor and post war u s time series

towards a theory of the direct indirect tax mix despite the fact that all developed economies levy broadly based indirect taxes alongside direct taxes little theory is devoted to explaining the direct indirect tax mix our purpose is to show that if different taxes have different evasion characteristics some optimal tax mix emerges naturally assuming that only income tax can be evaded and focusing on a two class economy we analyse the case for supplementing optimal non linear income taxation with commodity taxation and we develop conditions under which the latter should or should not be uniform

strategic asset allocation in a continuous time var model abstract this paper derives an approximate solution to a continuous time intertemporal portfolio and consumption choice problem the problem is the continuous time equivalent of the discrete time problem studied by campbell and viceira q j econ 114 1999 433 in which the expected excess return on a risky asset follows an ar 1 process while the riskless interest rate is constant the paper also shows how to obtain continuous time parameters that are consistent with discrete time econometric estimates the continuous time solution is the limit of that of campbell and viceira and has the property that conservative long term investors have a large positive intertemporal hedging demand for stocks

small island developing states and their economic vulnerabilities abstract many small island developing states sids face special disadvantages associated with small size insularity remoteness and proneness to natural disasters these factors render the economies of these states very vulnerable to forces outside their control a condition which sometimes threatens their very economic viability the gdp or gnp per capita of these states often conceals this reality in this paper the major vulnerabilities faced by sids are discussed and when possible quantified in the form of an index an attempt is also made to construct a composite index of vulnerability

direct versus indirect taxation the design of the tax structure revisited this article studies the optimal direct indirect tax mix problem when individuals differ in several unobservable characteristics productivity and endowments it presents general expressions for the optimal commodity tax rates and proves that contrary to atkinson and stiglitz s 1976 result differential commodity taxation remains a useful instrument of tax policy even if preferences are separable between labor and produced goods when cross substitution effects are zero the expressions resemble traditional many households ramsey rules in a cobb douglas illustration where endowments differ only in good 1 interpreted as wealth the tax on good 2 provides an indirect way to tax the unobservable wealth

demand for international reserves survey of recent empirical studies in the last decade many countries have preferred to move to a system of managed floating that is intermediate between the extremes of fixed rates and a clean float since managing the float requires international reserves it is clear that the study of these reserves is as relevant today as it has been in the past there are at least six reviews of the literature relevant to this study clower and lipsey 1968 niehans 1970 salant 1970 grubel 1971 williamson 1973 and cohen 1975 the justification for writing this review is that since completion of the last survey many papers have appeared which contribute to the stock of knowledge in this field however unlike the previous reviews which have concentrated on the broader issues pertaining to international liquidity such as the demand for reserves the supply of reserves the composition and distribution of reserves etc this study focuses solely on surveying empirical studies bearing on the demand for international reserves this review wi

on the job human capital investment and intertemporal substitution new evidence on intertemporal substitution elasticity abstract this paper argues that estimates of intertemporal elasticity of substitution ies obtained from standard life cycle models are subject to a downward bias because they neglect the life cycle and demographic patterns of on the job human capital investment taking into account the fact that part of a worker s time at work goes to acquiring human capital in addition to his main task of producing goods we extend the standard life cycle model to include time spent on investing in on the job human capital and propose a new framework for identifying the ies we obtain statistically significant evidence that conventional estimates of ies for total hours at work are biased downward about 20 at the intensive margin the corresponding ies estimates for production hours are biased downward even more which provides an explanation for why output fluctuation is greater than hours employment fluctuation over the business cycle

uncertainty optimal taxation and the direct versus indirect tax controversy this paper examines how the presence of uncertainty affects the design of tax policy when both indirect taxes and a general income tax are available to the government there are two categories of goods the consumption levels in one group are committed to before the resolution of uncertainty and those of the other after the paper proves that contrary to a b atkinson and j e stiglitz s 1976 result differential commodity taxation remains a useful instrument of optimal tax policy even if preferences are separable between labor and produced goods copyright 1995 by royal economic society

a further generalization of the solow growth model the role of the public sector we develop in this paper an augmented version of the solow 1956 solow r 1956 a contribution to the theory of economic growth quarterly journal of economics 70 65 94 growth model including the role of government the model leads to a non monotonic relationship between the rate of growth of per capita output and government size generalizing previous results by barro 1990 barro r 1990 government spending in a simple model of endogenous growth journal of political economy 98 s103 s125 to the case in which returns to scale to private factors are not constant 2000 elsevier science s a all rights reserved

why don t issuers get upset about leaving money on the table in ipos one of the puzzles regarding initial public offerings ipos is that issuers rarely get upset about leaving substantial amounts of money on the table defined as the number of shares sold times the difference between the first day closing market price and the offer price the average ipo leaves 9 1 million on the table this number is approximately twice as large as the fees paid to investment bankers and represents a substantial indirect cost to the issuing firm we present a prospect theory model that focuses on the covariance of the money left on the table and wealth changes our reasoning also provides an explanation for a second puzzling pattern much more money is left on the table following recent market rises than after market falls this results in an explanation of hot issue markets we also offer a new explanation for why ipos are underpriced copyright 2002 oxford university press

unemployment insurance and unemployment spells this paper tests the effects of the level and length of unemployment insurance benefits on unemployment durations the paper particularly studies individual behavior during the weeks just prior to when benefits lapse higher unemployment insurance benefits are found to have a strong negative effect on the probability of leaving unemployment however the probability of leaving unemployment rises dramatically just prior to when benefits lapse individual data are used with accurate information of spell durations and the level and length of benefits the semiparametric estimation techniques used in the paper yield more plausible estimates than conventional approaches and provide useful diagnostics copyright 1990 by the econometric society

anticipation and the valuation of delayed consumption this paper presents a model of intertemporal choice that incorporates savoring and dread i e utility from anticipat ion of delayed consumption the model explains why an individual with positive time preference may delay desirable outcomes or get unpleas ant outcomes over with quickly contrary to the prediction of convent ional formulations of intertemporal choice implications of savoring and dread for savings behavior empirical estimation of discount rate s and public policy efforts to combat myopic behavior are explored the model provides an explanation for common violations of the indepe ndence axiom as applied to intertemporal choice copyright 1987 by royal economic society

trade openness and economic growth a cross country empirical investigation abstract this paper demonstrates that trade liberalization does not have a simple and straightforward relationship with growth using a large number of openness measures for a cross section of countries over the last three decades we use two groups of trade openness measures the regression results for numerous trade intensity ratios are mostly consistent with the existing literature however contrary to the conventional view on the growth effects of trade barriers our estimation results show that trade barriers are positively and in most specifications significantly associated with growth especially for developing countries and they are consistent with the findings of theoretical growth and development literature

efficiency wage models of unemployment keynesian economists hold it to be self evident that business cycles are characterized by involuntary unemployment but construction of a model of the cycle with involuntary unemployment faces the obvious difficulty of explaining why the labor market does not clear involuntarily unemployed people by definition want to work at less than the going wage rate why don t firms cut wages thereby increasing profits

gain loss asymmetric stochastic differential utility abstract this study examines a gain loss asymmetric utility in continuous time in which the investor discounts their utility gain by more than the utility loss by employing the theory of stochastic differential utility the model allows an endogenously time varying subjective discount rate in addition the model can express various forms of utility functions including a version of the epstein zin utility under the model even if the state variables do not have any jump in their paths the optimal consumption wealth ratio and portfolio weight can change non smoothly

capital income taxation when inherited wealth is not observable this paper extends the atkinson stiglitz model of direct and indirect taxation to a dynamic setting with two unobservable characteristics productive ability and inherited wealth bequests are motivated by the joy of giving a child s inheritance is a random variable with a probability distribution that depends on his parent s investment in a bequest technology public borrowing is assumed and implies the modified golden rule we study the optimal tax policy when two instruments are available a non linear wage income tax and a proportional tax on capital income we show that the second instrument ought in general to be used but that the tax rate is not necessarily positive however a positive tax rate is more likely when there is a positive correlation between inherited wealth and innate ability

commodity taxation in welfare states i introduction while the nature of unemployment is diverse a substantial part of unemployment in many developed countries it is argued stems from generous social welfare systems meyer 1990 nickell and layard 1999 and see figure 1 1 in fact the organization for economic cooperation and development oecd data show that countries with generous unemployment insurance ui face high unemployment rates and tend to have high commodity tax rates see figure 2 this paper attempts to account for these empirical patterns in the optimal taxation framework in a general equilibrium context the unemployment mentioned above can be viewed as a result of a a low work incentive induced by generous social insurance welfare benefits combined with b the subsequent employment adjustment by firms e g not renewing employment contracts or hiring a portion of temporary part time workers as regular workers to raise labor productivity to deal with this type of unemployment the government may need to seek reforms of social insurance welfare systems including a reduction in unemployment benefits but the public s redistributive motives often do not permit implementation of such reforms 2 under this socioeconomic constraint this paper raises a question can commodity taxation help reduce unemployment and improve efficiency perhaps a slightly different but equally interesting question that concerns many welfare states in recent decades may be suppose that a society agreed on the expansion of welfare programs in financing the increased welfare expenditure which tax increase consumption taxes or income taxes is more relevant figure 1 omitted figure 2 omitted to address these questions we examine the role of commodity taxation in a general equilibrium model where a taking into account wage unemployment benefits and taxes workers choose work effort that the firm can observe only through costly monitoring and b firms use both wage and monitoring as effort eliciting devices and they fire those caught shirking therefore the chosen level of a worker s effort affects the probabilities of employment and unemployment and thus involuntary unemployment arises from moral hazard 3 in this contractual setting with imperfect information we consider the government s problem of maximizing the representative worker s expected utility using income and commodity taxes we derive new results on commodity taxation and present supportive results using quantitative analysis our key results suggest that commodity taxation can be used to alleviate moral hazard and hence unemployment which can account for why countries with generous social welfare systems tend to adopt high commodity tax rates see figure 2 this main result is based on the following feature of the model given the aforementioned environment optimal commodity and income tax rates can be determined in contrast to the indeterminacy result of atkinson and stiglitz 1976 henceforth as 4 therefore our results provide an explanation for the widely observed coexistence of direct and indirect taxation to illustrate the intuition behind our results consider a situation where a a society provides liberal unemployment benefits for unemployed workers and b the government sets the levels of income and commodity tax rates so as to finance the expenditures for ui and public goods liberal unemployment benefits are equivalent to treating the consumption of unemployed workers favorably i e between states consumption choice distortion which creates moral hazard in the supply of effort under imperfect information about effort obviously drastic reforms in social insurance systems e g cutting benefits can correct moral hazard but the public s redistributive motives do not permit such reforms in this setting we show that strengthening commodity taxation while lessening income taxation penalizes moral hazard which lowers the between states consumption choice distortion leading to a greater supply of effort