fiddling with value violins as an investment i introduction in this article we analyze the prices of violins using two different datasets one dataset includes 337 observations on repeat sales of the same violins at auction and at dealer sales starting in the mid nineteenth century and the other dataset includes over 2 500 observations on sales of individual violins at auction since 1980 the purpose of this article is to give some indication as to whether violins are a viable alternative investment that might be part of a diversified portfolio and to determine if some types of violins have had higher returns than other types of violins despite the growing discussion of alternative investments in the economics and finance literature the growing number of wealthy individuals funds and syndicates that invest in violins and the interest in violins as a collateralizable asset the only previous study of violin prices published in an academic journal was a study by ross and zondervan 1989 of repeat sales of 17 stradivaris this dearth of academic analysis is most likely due to the difficulty in gathering information on the sale prices of violins compared to real estate and even art the market for high end violins is thin and many violins are sold through dealers rather than auctions resulting in difficulty gathering the data to preview our results overall real returns for the dataset on repeat sales for the period 1850 2009 have been approximately 3 5 real returns to the overall portfolio of individual sales at auction since 1980 have also been about 3 3 not including transaction commissions the price path has been stable with a slightly negative correlation to stocks and bonds the overall returns mask differences in returns between different types of violins it is believed that better violins are sold through dealers rather than through auction houses indeed the real return on dealer sales for 1850 2008 was 4 32 and the real return to violins sold at auction for the same period was 2 86 since 1980 modern italian instruments sold at auction have increased steadily in price relative to old italian instruments sold at auction this article proceeds as follows the violin market is discussed in section ii and in section iii we discuss the data and our estimation methodology in section iv we present our regression results and in section v we interpret our regressions we conclude in section vi ii the market for violins a how the market works fiddles the term used by dealers and collectors to refer to even the finest violins are sold through both auction houses and dealers and also directly from one musician or collector to another the main sellers and buyers of these instruments other than dealers are musicians collectors often foundations and investors individual musicians have used various schemes to purchase a good instrument including borrowing from banks that specialize in loaning funds against musical instruments and assembling syndicates to raise money most collectors both private and institutional loan out their instruments to talented musicians the musician typically pays all insurance and maintenance costs but not a rental fee insurance costs range from about 0 5 to about 2 of the value of an instrument there are also buyers who are interested in purchasing violins primarily as an investment as part of a diversified portfolio these instruments are then also loaned out to musicians who pay insurance and maintenance violins are sold through both auction houses and dealers the relative size of the various markets is very difficult to gauge through conversations with dealers and analyzing our auction data we speculate that auction sales make up between 10 and 20 of the market one advantage of transacting through a dealer is that it is easier to borrow and try out the instrument though auction houses also accommodate a small number of potential buyers in this manner

out of step out of office electoral accountability and house members voting does a typical house member need to worry about the electoral ramifications of his roll call decisions we investigate the relationship between incumbents electoral performance and roll call support for their party controlling for district ideology challenger quality and campaign spending among other factors through a series of tests of the 1956 1996 elections the tests produce three key findings indicating that members are indeed accountable for their legislative voting first in each election an incumbent receives a lower vote share the more he supports his party second this effect is comparable in size to that of other widely recognized electoral determinants third a member s probability of retaining office decreases as he offers increased support for his party and this relationship holds for not only marginal but also safe members

transparency in parliamentary voting how does transparency affect voting behavior to answer this question we exploit a switch from a show of hands to electronic voting in the upper house of the swiss parliament the change which took place halfway through the 2011 2015 legislative period also brought about the online publication of individual voting records using the lower house as a control group we compare individual voting decisions in a set of identical votes in both chambers this unique framework makes it possible to estimate the causal effect of increased transparency on legislators choices since the reform members of the upper house are less likely to deviate from the majority decision of their party legislators representing the same canton are also less likely to cast an aligned vote suggesting that voters lose influence over their representatives in parliament

art as an investment and conspicuous consumption good ments art is also a consumption good art owners take pleasure in its intrinsic value e g for aesthetic pleasure or as a storehouse of an artist s deftness and to the extent that it is a luxury good they derive additional enjoyment from the signal of wealth that owning a masterpiece transmits it is the mixture of pecuniary and nonpecuniary payoffs to ownership that makes artworks both compelling to purchase and difficult to value i exploit this insight to explain why the measured risk premium of a portfolio of artworks is low compared to other risky assets in a consumption based pricing model an asset s risk premium is a function of the covariance of its returns with agents marginal utility of consump tion agents need to be compensated if the asset pays off in a period of already high utility as a luxury good relative art demand is an increasing function of wealth therefore positive shocks to income increase the demand price and returns to art in periods of high consumption utility implying a high risk premium this intuition is at odds with empirical studies that quantify the average financial returns of paintings relative to more traditional investment vehicles these studies find that art 1 often underperforms relative to equities and bonds while there have been

measuring returns on investments in collectibles this paper considers the question of how to measure and interpret the financial return to investing in collectibles we review various methodologies for creating priced indexes and then discuss studies that explicitly calculate a rate of return to some set of collectibles while most collectibles appear to yield positive real returns the majority embody more risk and yield lower financial returns than stocks other characteristics of collectibles prices such as covariance with other asset prices are also examined

dynamics of fine wine and asset prices evidence from short and long run co movements this article examines short and long term price linkages among the majority of fine wine and equity markets over the period of 2003 to 2012 we do not consider the price index liv ex 100 or 500 as is typically undertaken in previous studies but rather examine the auction price series of the world s most traded wine vintage pairs 5 bordeaux first growth 8 bordeaux second growth 5 burgundy 3 rhone 4 italian 5 californian 1 australian and 1 portuguese a global equity index is also included using the morgan stanley capital international world cointegration procedures the granger non causality test and ecm are used to analyse short and long run relationships among these markets the results indicate a strong effect of financial markets on wine prices and short term causality for certain wines moreover the findings indicate short run causality between the wines themselves revealing a leader exogenous or follower endogenous status of certain fine wines in price dynamics and also long ru

on pricing the priceless comments on the economics of the visual art market abstract behaviour in the arts is often related to pleasure and imagination however art objects paintings pieces of sculpture and others have been traded on markets for a long time more importantly the place attributed to an artist by contemporary aesthetic judgement more or less depends upon markets we consider here different questions about art objects as commodities markets and prices the returns to art including comments on the comparison of prices of paintings and stock market fluctuations

is art market behaviour predictable abstract in this paper we look for relationships between art and financial markets through econometric methods the main results indicate that financial markets influence the art market with a lag of about one year which seems plausible due to the relative sizes of both markets the vector auto regressive v a r model shows that lagged financial variables help predicting art prices even if the lag does not allow for systematic profits

art as a wartime investment conspicuous consumption and discretion the financial underperformance of art as an investment is well documented in contrast to studies conducted on peace time periods this paper shows that the art market in occupied france during wwii significantly outperformed all alternative investments bonds equities as well as currencies exchanged on the black market other than gold this suggests that art may be a good hedge against low probability disasters the paper further demonstrates that motives to purchase art consumption and investment vary over time in his theoretical model mandel 2009 attributes art s low return to the utility derived from conspicuous consumption in occupied france during wwii conspicuous consumption was impossible for artworks deemed degenerate by the nazis the price evolution of degenerate versus non degenerate artworks confirms the importance of conspicuous consumption in artworks pricing eventually the paper defines the concept of discretion the ability to store a large amount of value in small and easily transportable goods during wartime illegal activities and the risk of being forced to flee the country increased the interest for discreet assets as shown by the better performance of small and thus discreet artworks in comparison to large ones

long term comovements in international markets for paintings we study steady state relationships between prices for paintings obtained by three groups of painters impressionist modern and contemporary european masters other minor european painters contemporary us painters at public auctions in new york london and paris between 1962 and 1991 the analysis is carried out by estimating vector autoregressive models using the recent techniques developed by johansen the results show that the various markets move closely together and are even in new york led by what happens to the group of european great masters whose prices are not influenced by other prices we also examine the relation between art and stock markets we find that there is no long run relation between these two assets though in the short run financial markets do influence art markets

decision making in committees transparency reputation and voting rules in this paper i analyze the effect of the transparency of the decision making process in committees on the decisions that are eventually taken i focus on committees whose members are motivated by career concerns so that each member tries to enhance his own reputation when the decision making process is secretive the individual votes of the committee members are not exposed to the public but only the final decision thus individuals are evaluated according to the group s decision i find that in such a case group members are induced to comply with preexisting biases for example if the voting rule demands a supermajority to accept a reform individuals vote more often against reforms and exacerbate the conservatism of the voting rule when the decision making process becomes transparent and individual votes are observed this effect disappears and such committees are then more likely to accept reforms i also find that coupled with the right voting rule a secretive procedure may induce better decisions than a transparent one

art investment an empirical inquiry investment in art and especially in paintings by the masters is often considered to be highly profitable particularly in the united states but also in the richer european nations there is an even larger number of investors who believe that buying works of art is not only fun but also a good investment from a purely financial point of view american banks have recently strengthened this trend toward art as an investment by employing art investment counselors thus suggesting that it is a financially rewarding activity to engage in and also suggesting that superior knowledge helps to improve financial success in this market buying and selling art has in fact become an increasingly popular activity since the end of world war ii the auction houses report record turnovers and record prices are paid in increasingly rapid sequence in april 1987 van gogh s sunflowers was sold at christie s london for 39 9 million only to be surpassed in november 1987 by van gogh s irises sold by sotheby s new york for 53 9 million including the auction house s 10 percent commission this last painting had been bought by the seller s mother in 1947 for 84 000 less than 0 5 million in today s money which gives a real rate of return of about 12 percent per year these enormous prices that are paid today for some masterpieces create a widespread belief that the rate of return on such investments is in general and on average very high books devoted to the subject 40 385 27 24 12 215 et seq seem to confirm that the rate of return from investment in paintings at least during the 1950s and 1960s was far greater than the rate obtainable from comparable risky assets in financial markets that the financial profitability in the 1970s and 1980s is believed to be if anything even larger than before is confirmed by many articles in financial and investment newspapers and journals up to now only very few scientific studies of the subject exist but they also have serious limitations the most recent one by baumol 5 covers a period of over 300 years but ends in 1960 two other studies by anderson 1 and stein 42 extend up to the end of the 1960s but do not go any further all three studies are practically limited to transactions by anglo saxon auction

to save or savor the rate of return to storing wine for 28 000 one can buy a jaguar xj6 308 shares of mcdonnell douglas stock a one tenth interest in an oklahoma gas well 4i years of undergraduate life at stanford or one bottle of chateau lafite vintage 1806 that s 1 166 67 an ounce at this moment gold is worth only 275 an ounce and you can t smell or drink it saturday review of literature 1979 p 38 nine years ago 70 could persuade a paris restaurant to part with this same bottle of liquid gold goldwyn 1979 p 4 but for balance admire the growth of a slightly more pedestrian vintage a 1959 beaulieu estate bottled cabernet today a case of it may be purchased for 1 200 for the more modest budget 950 will buy a case of 1970 beaulieu george latour private reserve cabernet all this goes to show that wine the right wine in the last 10 years has provided the prudently daring investor with a spectacular return the virtues of wine as a liquid asset have been tested recently by krasker 1979 krasker cannot reject a hypothesis that wine offers no extraordinary rate of return the wine investor can expect no greater return than that which accrues to riskless assets while krasker finds the concept that an investment in wine outperforms treasury bills in nominal return incompatible with the way economists believe most assets are priced his result seems counter to intuition wine as a subcategory of riskless assets seems contrary to wine s very nature wine is a living substance its maturation process extends well beyond the bottling day lasting as long as 20 40 years in the case of some reds while a few others refuse to retire at 65 but the proper age

price determination for a collectible good the case of rare united states coins researchers investigating markets for collectible goods such as paintings 1 2 6 12 antique furniture 7 stradivarius violins 14 wine 8 10 and postage stamps 15 often report rates of return to holding collectibles that are both low 2 6 7 8 12 and volatile 6 7 8 12 baumol 2 argues that the market for paintings of noted deceased artists has no long run equilibrium price because the market is characterized by infrequent trades of unique assets which are available in fixed supply his empirical analysis supports the idea that paintings experience unpredictable price changes and highly dispersed rates of return with a mean near zero in contrast anderson 1 reports estimated equations explaining approximately 60 percent of the variation in log prices of paintings based on the size of painting date of sale and a constructed measure of repute of the artist other researchers have examined markets with more frequent transactions and greater substitutability among the goods traded schnitzel 15 finds that year to year changes in prices of postage stamps are predictable based on age of the stamp and quantity printed ross and zondervan 14 report that variations in quality affect prices but not rates of return of stradivarius violins a result which is consistent with user benefits being invariant with respect to quality among markets for collectibles the market for rare u s coins is active and well organized and faces the potential for increased federal regulation annual sales are estimated at 5 billion 16 two wall street brokerages recently have formed multimillion dollar limited partnerships to invest in rare coins and some coins now are traded on electronic exchanges 5 these innovations have come amid calls for increased regulation to guard against fraudulent grading of coins 5 16 a major determinant of the price of a collectible coin is its grade a measure of condition reflecting qualities such as sharpness of features regulators accuse coin dealers of defrauding collectors of millions of dollars annually by assigning higher than warranted grades to the coins dealers sell while downgrading coins they buy for example the federal trade commission ftc

selling online versus live a seller choosing between auctioning online and live faces a tradeoff lower transaction costs online against more rents left with the bidders we model this tradeoff and apply the theory to auctions of art the crucial parameter for whether the seller does better online than live is not the expected price but the valuation uncertainty

does electoral accountability affect economic policy choices evidence from gubernatorial term limits this paper analyzes the behavior of u s governors from 1950 to 1986 to investigate a reputation building model of political behavior we argue that differences in the behavior of governors who face a binding term limit and those who are able to run again provides a source of variation in discount rates that can be used to test a political agency model we find evidence that taxes spending and other policy instruments respond to a binding term limit if a democrat is in office the result is a fiscal cycle in term limit states which lowers state income when the term limit binds

sale rates and price movements in art auctions this paper examines the relationship between sale rates and price shocks in art auctions using data on contemporary and impressionist art we show that while sale rates appear to have little relationship to current prices there exists a strong negative relationship of sale rates to unexpected price shocks which is reminiscent of a phillips curve we estimate an empirical model that suggests that the reserve price is set on average at about 70 of the low estimate

how auctions work for wine and art interview auctioneers and even to buy a little wine in the meantime i have also had the opportunity with john abowd 1988 to observe and collect data on the auction sale of impressionist and contemporary paintings this paper reports on some of the empirical regularities that i and others have observed in the actual operation of the auction markets for these items in view of the rich and diverse array of theoretical literature on auctions it seems high time economists began to spell out precisely what facts it is meant to explain 2

labour productivity in the british and south wales coal industry 1874 1914 naked to the waist hot and grimy with labour they squatted on their heels for a few minutes and talked seeing each other dimly by the light of the safety lamps while the black coal rose jutting around them and the props of wood stood like little pillars in the low black very dark temple the day passed pleasantly enough there was an ease a go asyou please about the day underground a delightful camaraderie of men shut off alone from the rest of the world in a dangerous place and a variety of labour holing loading timbering and a glamour of mystery and adventure in the atmosphere d h lawrence 1955 the above quote from d h lawrence while perhaps over emphasizing glamour and adventure illustrates one important aspect of colliery work the intensity of a collier s effort was primarily self imposed it was the work intensity combined with other factors that determined labour productivity in the coal mines a number of articles have addressed the problem of labour productivity in coalmining during the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries two of the most important being a j taylor s 1961 examination of productivity and technological change in britain and r h walters 1975 analysis of the same topic for south wales 1 in addition there is a rich and growing literature on the broader problem of the existence of a climacteric a downward shift in the performance of the british economy in the late nineteenth century often attributed to the failure of british entrepreneurs as represented by their seeming unwillingness to adopt the best available techniques of production 2 the purpose of this paper is to specify and estimate an empirical model of labour productivity in coalmining as well as to provide some suggestive evidence regarding the performance of entrepreneurs in this major industry 3 we believe our results provide added insight into the determination of labour productivity during this period lending support to those who argue that the failure of british entrepreneurs has yet to be proved while providing mixed evidence regarding conclusions drawn by economic historians

heterogeneity and fine wine prices application of the quantile regression approach this study addresses the price heterogeneity of the five first growths of bordeaux we apply the quantile regression qr approach with market segmentation based on wine bottle price quantiles we

art market inefficiency art is often used as an investment vehicle given the importance of market efficiency in finance we use a large auction based index to test whether the art market is weakly efficient evidence reveals that returns on artworks exhibit high positive auto correlation we attribute this result to price truncation resulting from unobservable reserve prices in auctions we conclude that the art market is not efficient mainly because price formation is opaque to outsiders who lack information on unsold artworks

how did japanese investments influence international art prices we test the luxury consumption hypothesis of ait sahalia parker and yogo 2004 using a unique international art price import export flow and stock market data set we find that the demand for art by japanese collectors is positively correlated with art prices and japanese stock prices this correlation is magnified during the bubble period of the japanese economy the mid 1980s to the early 1990s and gains even further strength for works of art typically favored by japanese collectors our results suggest that japanese investors or japanese asset markets indeed affect international art prices especially during the bubble period and its aftermath

work environment and individual background explaining regional shirking differentials in a large italian firm the prevalence of shirking within a large italian bank appears to be characterized by significant regional differentials in particular absenteeism and misconduct episodes are substantially more prevalent in the south we consider a number of potential explanations for this fact different individual backgrounds group interaction effects sorting of workers across regions differences in local attributes different hiring policies and discrimination against southern workers our analysis suggests that individual backgrounds group interaction effects and sorting effects contribute to explaining the north south shirking differential none of the other explanations appears to be of first order importance i introduction whether individual behavior is determined by group interactions or by individual background is undoubtedly a fundamental question for the social sciences this question presented itself forcefully when we stumbled onto the following piece of evidence there appear to be significant regional differentials in the prevalence of shirking among the employees of a large italian bank in particular absenteeism and misconduct episodes are considerably more frequent in the southern branches of the bank in this paper we examine several potential explanations for this fact first individual preferences for shirking versus working may differ according to one s region of hirth we will refer to this hj othesis as one of different individual hackgrounds the second possibility is one of locational sorting low shirking types may tend to migrate to the north high shirking types may tend to migrate to the south or hoth third the northern and southern

absentee bidders and the declining price anomaly in wine auctions the anomaly is concerned with the observation that in multiple item auctions of identical objects prices tend to decline over time i show that in the case of wine auctions which have been analyzed frequently the anomaly is likely to be caused by the fact that most bids are entered by absentees who use nonoptimal bidding strategies therefore wine auctions can hardly be used to illustrate the standard multiple object auction model

wage rates and work intensity in the south wales coalfield 1874 1914 in a recent article in this journal hirsch and hausman 1983 attempt to identify and measure the influences determining labour productivity in the british and especially the south wales coalfield during the 40 years before the first world war in particular attention is focused on the idea commonly expressed by contemporary coal owners that the upturn in wage rates both nominal and real during the 1880s exerted a major depressing influence on labour productivity the findings of hirsch and hausman are largely consistent with the views of traditional economic historians notably taylor 1961 and walters 1975 while less emphasis is placed by hirsch and hausman upon the effects of diminishing returns they find strong support for the contention that rising wage rates played a major role in explaining decreased productivity essentially hirsch and hausman claim to offer a firm empirical foundation for the persuasive but far from conclusive arguments of taylor and walters by using regression analysis to isolate the separate influences determining labour productivity if the estimates presented by hirsch and hausman are considered legitimate their results are striking for south wales elasticities of labour productivity with respect to both nominal and real wages of approximately 0 27 are reported juxtaposition of this parameter with the nominal wage index employed by walters which rises around 55 per cent between 1888 and 1914 suggests that over 60 per cent of the 24 per cent fall in labour productivity during the same period was accounted for by rising wage rates a consistent though moderately less strong interpretation is produced if the real wage index which increases some 40 per cent in the same period is preferred the contention of this paper is that the inverse association between wages and productivity postulated by hirsch and hausman for the south wales coalfield between 1874 and 1914 is without statistical foundation the basis for this assertion is that hirsch and hausman replicate unacceptable elements in the framework albeit without the qualifications offered by walters indeed this is done by intent we employ a somewhat ad hoc model reflecting the discussion by economic historians it will be argued that this desire to test the literature leads hirsch and hausman to estimate a model for which the results are difficult to interpret and to reach conclusions that are implausible specification problems are compounded by the choice of data particularly by the adoption of the wage rate index employed by walters but also by the use of proximate indicators to measure the balance between technical progress and diminishing returns

art as an investment the market for modern prints repeat sales of modern prints at auction are used to estimate a semiannual index of prices for the period 1977 92 as in other studies of art as an investment prints do not compare favorably to traditional financial assets there is substantial noise in auction prices but little or no support for the proposition that some artists command higher prices in certain countries or that masterpieces outperform the market one puzzle is the continuing tendency for prices realized at certain auction houses to exceed those realized at others notably at sotheby s relative to christie s in new york copyright 1993 by american economic association

the rate of return on investment in wine joyce p jacobsen is wine an investment alternative to stocks and bonds first we review prior studies regarding the pecuniary rate of return to wine and other alternatives to financial assets next we calculate the rate of return to holding red bordeaux wine from 1986 to 1996 using a repeat sale regression finally we contrast the financial performance of wine both on an aggregate basis and for various portfolios to that of other asset classes we conclude that wine does not yield greater returns than financial assets especially when the volatility of returns and transaction costs are taken into account jel d44 g12 c43 investments in art and other collectibles are generally deemed profitable but empirical examinations of the relative attractiveness of noncapital good tangible assets relative to financial instruments have shown that art and other collectibles are not sound investments from a financial point of view there is a large body of literature that calculates the rate of return on alternative asset classes and concludes with few exceptions that nonfinancial assets are not good financial investments however in the case of wine the evidence is mixed collectors often maintain that the pecuniary rate of return on investments in wine is comparable to or exceeds investments in stocks and bonds and economists have not reached a consensus vis a vis the relative attractiveness of wine in this article we consider 1 how investment grade wine compares to other alternative asset classes and 2 whether wine might be a viable investment alternative to stocks or bonds first we consider the results drawn from empirical investigations regarding the relative attractiveness of paintings and other collectibles as investments next we review prior econometric evidence regarding the pecuniary rate of return to wine finally we calculate the return on wine from 1986 to 1996 using a repeat sale regression and contrast wine s financial performance both for an aggregate portfolio and for selected submarkets to that of other asset classes i most investments in collectibles cannot be justified as purely monetary there is a virtual consensus in the economic literature of the arts that financial assets dominate less traditional tangible assets as investments because art and other collectibles embody a compensating differential in the form of a user benefit burton and jacobsen 1999 offer a survey of this literature that finds that most quantitative examinations of the markets for art and other collectibles have concluded that the high risk low return characteristics of noncapital good tangible assets effectively proscribe retaining them as financial investments a seminal study by baumol 1986 for example estimated the real annual rate of return on paintings over the period 1652 to 1961 to be only 0 55 frey and pommerehne 1989 who subsequently extended baumol s data set up through 1987 and expanded it by including sales from more countries also concluded that paintings were relatively unattractive investment instruments yielding only about 1 4 between 1635 and 1949 and 1 6 between 1950 and 1987 on an annual inflation adjusted basis more recent studies have only confirmed that investments in other forms of art and collectibles compare unfavorably to investments in traditional financial assets especially when the rate of return is risk adjusted 1 pesando 1993 for example constructed a price index of modem prints over 1977 to 1992 and estimated that the average real annual rate of return on an aggregate print portfolio was only 1 51 well below the concomitant real return on stocks moreover pesando noted that the risk as measured by the standard deviation of real returns associated with investing in prints was comparable to or even exceeded investments in stocks or long term bonds ii but what about wine

government transparency and policymaking we argue that making lawmakers more accountable to the public by making it easier to identify their policy choices can have negative consequences specifically we analyze a model of political agency with a single lawmaker and a representative voter in our model the lawmaker has better information than the voter about the appropriateness of alternative policy courses in addition the voter is uncertain about the incumbent s policy preferences specifically the voter is worried the incumbent is an ideologue our model suggests that when lawmakers expect their policy choices to be widely publicized for those lawmakers sufficiently concerned about reelection the desire to select policies that lead the public to believe they are unbiased will trump the incentive to select those policies that are best for their constituents hence lawmakers who would do the right thing behind close doors may no longer do so when policy is determined in the open

volatility of price indices for heterogenous goods with applications to the fine art market price indices for heterogeneous goods such as real estate or fine art constitute crucial information for institutional or private investors considering alternative investment decisions in times of financial markets turmoil classical meanvariance analysis of alternative investments has been hampered by the lack of a systematic treatment of volatility in these markets in this paper we propose a hedonic regression framework which explicitly defines an underlying stochastic process for the price index allowing to treat the volatility parameter as the object of interest the model can be estimated using maximum likelihood in combination with the kalman filter we derive theoretical properties of the volatility estimator and show that it outperforms the standard estimator we show that extensions to allow for time varying volatility are straightforward using a local likelihood approach in an application to a large data set of international blue chip artists we show that volatility of the art market although generally lower than that of financial markets has risen after the financial crisis of 2008 09 but sharply decreased during the recent debt crisis

auctions and the price of art the value of most important works of art is established by public auction either directly by an actual sale or indirectly by reference to other sales how the auction system works is thus a critical determinant of how the public s preferences are translated into the evaluation of artistic work the auction system is central in the determination of the incentives for artistic work and the efficiency of the auction system is a key determinant of the cost of creating and distributing works of art this paper contains a review of the burgeoning new research of the last decade that has been designed to shed light on how the art auction system actually works what it indicates about price formation and how well it performs we begin our discussion in section 2 with a short description of the mechanics of the auction system and then organize the remainder of our discussion around two major topics the first topic concerns how auction prices can be used to determine and compare overall price movements within the art market and other markets and the second topic concerns how the auction mechanism influences prices we

are art auction estimates biased this article considers whether presale auction estimates are unbiased predictors of price when no sales are considered utilizing a newly constructed sample of over 500 works by eight early twentieth century american artists unbiased presale auction estimates in predicting price while expected are generally not supported in previous work but these studies excepting one do not include no sales in the calculations in order to study the question we employ a standard approach that uses an inverse mills ratio arising from a sample selection probit to correct for selection bias we find that controlling for selection bias presale auction estimates appear to be biased downward and we offer possible reasons for this result

vested interest and biased price estimates evidence from an auction market this study employs a new data set from art auctions to examine the relationship between auctioneer presale price estimates and the long term performance of artworks we find that the price estimates for expensive paintings have a consistent upward bias over a long period of 30 years high estimates at the time of purchase are associated with adverse subsequent abnormal returns moreover the estimation error for individual paintings tends to persist over time these results are consistent with the view that auction house price estimates are affected by agency problems and that

evaluating the median voter model s explanatory power abstract we match individual senators voting behavior on legislative proposals with 24 real referendum decisions on exactly the same issues with identical wording this setting allows us to evaluate the median voter model s quality with revealed constituents preferences results indicate a limited explanatory power of the median voter model it explains 17 6 points more than random voting and that a senator s probability to accept a proposal in parliament increases on average by 8 4 points when the district median voter accepts the proposal

the market value of rarity abstract most theories of demand assume that consumers value the characteristics of products but are unconcerned with how many other consumers also consume the product however several theories of demand argue that consumers can value the exclusivity of possessing a rare object we test this implication on a particular collectible rare coins our paper examines the case of coins of a given type and identical quality that have mintages in different quantities this allows us to exclude the common case in which rarity or price itself is an indicator of quality for our sample rarer coins command higher prices rarity in the form of original mintage more strongly influences the market price than does collectibility as represented by the rarest coins of each mint mark or year we also point out that here may be other goods such as automobiles for which rarity may influence market demand

reputation price and death an empirical analysis of art price formation i introduction art prices are often claimed to substantially increase when the artist dies these claims appear to be largely based on anecdotal evidence they are promulgated by hearsay and sometimes cleverly insinuated by art dealers who attempt to convince naive customers that it is justified to mark up the artwork of recently deceased artists this study provides a theory guided empirical analysis of the so called death effect on art prices the analysis employs hedonic price regressions and makes use of a dataset which exceeds the sample size of traditional studies in cultural economics by an order of magnitude thereby shedding a new light on previous investigations of art price formation even though the literature on art auctions art price indices and rates of return in the visual arts market is by now quite voluminous see respectively ashenfelter and graddy 2006 ginsburgh mei and moses 2006 frey and eichenberger 1995 the death effect has not received much attention so far to be sure there are a few empirical studies which allow for a death effect but these studies do so in a rather cursory and off hand manner by merely including in their regressions a dummy variable that distinguishes between works of art created by living and late artists see e g agnello 2002 worthington and higgs 2006 the first investigation that has squarely addressed death induced changes in art prices is by ekelund ressler and watson 2000 these authors go some way in providing a theoretical underpinning of the death effect by pointing out that artists produce durable goods under market conditions of monopolistic competition thus given rational actors in the art market the coase conjecture applies coase 1972 even though artists have in principle some discretion in setting prices they cannot exert market power because they are unable to credibly commit to not lowering their prices in the future by spoiling the market with an inflationary increase in production during an artist s lifetime prices will therefore settle well below the monopoly price death of course is the ultimate device to commit to discontinuing production art prices thus increase when the artist dies because her oeuvre all of a sudden becomes scarcer than originally anticipated after having laid this theoretical foundation ekelund ressler and watson proceed to empirically identify the death effect with the help of a hedonic price regression their data consists of a panel of auction records relating to the work of 21 latin american artists who died near or during the observation period 1977 1996 the prices are shown to peak in the years immediately following an artist s death thus lending support to the existence of a death effect from a theoretical point of view the main concern with this pioneering analysis relates to the artists age at death since the probability of dying increases with age the information of an old artist s death is not very surprising and should therefore already be largely reflected in the price implying a small death effect the death of an old artist moreover causes a relatively small reduction in the anticipated size of her oeuvre which again translates into a relatively small price increase when her death is made public assuming rational expectations one would therefore expect the death effect to decrease with the artist s age at death a formal rendering of this argument is shown by itaya and ursprung 2008 who investigate the death effect in an infinite horizon dynamic general equilibrium setting it therefore stands to reason that the death effect depends on the age at death neglecting this relationship in empirical investigations may of course give rise to a seriously misspecified econometric model a recent study by maddison and jul pedersen 2008 acknowledges that the prices of an artist s works should depend on the expected total supply which in turn depends on the artist s conditional life expectancy at the time of sale

fishing quota markets abstract in 1986 new zealand responded to the open access problem by establishing the world s largest individual transferable quota itq system using a 15 year panel dataset from new zealand that covers 33 species and more than 150 markets for fishing quotas we assess trends in market activity price dispersion and the fundamentals determining quota prices we find that market activity is sufficiently high in the economically important markets and that price dispersion has decreased we also find evidence of economically rational behavior through the relationship between quota lease and sale prices and fishing output and input prices ecological variability and market interest rates controlling for these factors our results show a greater increase in quota prices for fish stocks that faced significant reductions consistent with increased profitability due to rationalization overall this suggests that these markets are operating reasonably well implying that itqs can be effective instruments for efficient fisheries management

buying beauty on prices and returns in the art market this paper investigates the price determinants and investment performance of art we apply a hedonic regression analysis to a new data set of more than one million auction transactions of paintings and works on paper based on the resulting price index we conclude that art has appreciated in value by a moderate 3 97 per year in real u s dollar terms between 1957 and 2007 this is a performance similar to that of corporate bonds at much higher risk a repeat sales regression on a subset of the data demonstrates the robustness of our index next quantile regressions document larger average price appreciations and higher volatilities in more expensive price brackets we also find variation in historical returns across mediums and movements finally we show that measures of high income consumer confidence and art market sentiment predict art price trends this paper was accepted by wei xiong finance

the price of wine abstract using historical price records for bordeaux premiers crus we examine the impact of aging on wine prices and the long term investment performance of fine wine in line with the predictions of an illustrative model young maturing wines from high quality vintages provide the highest financial returns past maturity famous ch teaus deliver growing non pecuniary benefits to their owners using an arithmetic repeat sales regression over 1900 2012 we estimate a real financial return to wine investment net of storage costs of 4 1 which exceeds bonds art and stamps returns to wine and equities are positively correlated finally we find evidence of in sample return predictability

on the rate of return in the art market survey and evaluation abstract existing estimates of rates of return on single art objects and whole collections are surveyed and critically evaluated the psychic benefits from art are in the few cases they are considered at all derived from the difference to financial returns on other markets this paper discusses determinants of psychic benefits and suggests rental fees and willingness to pay studies as a possible way to analyze and estimate the psychic benefits from art

how do senators vote disentangling the role of voter preferences party affiliation and senate ideology this paper develops a methodology for consistently estimating the relative weights in senator utility functions despite the fact that senator ideologies are unobserved the empirical results suggest that voter preferences are assigned only one quarter of the weight in senator utility functions the national party line also has some influence but the senator s own ideology is the primary determinant of roll call voting patterns these results cast doubt on the empirical relevance of the median voter theorem estimation of the model requires only roll call voting data making it widely applicable copyright 1996 by american economic association

behavioural heterogeneity in wine investments we introduce a heterogeneous agent model to explain the dynamics of fine wine investments our results show evidence of the existence of both fundamentalists those who trade on mean reversion tow

the art of benchmarking picasso prints and auction house performance the influence of the auction house on the price of comparable art objects is an issue in the economics of arts literature the standard approach has been to run hedonic price regressions including the auction house as a dummy variable the approach in this paper is to apply benchmarking tools developed in the efficiency and productivity literature directly to the auction house as a unit new performance indices are developed based on a dea benchmarking technique to analyse auction houses the new indices discriminate well between auction houses by allowing one to identify both contemporaneous and inter temporal performances additional best performance results are obtained for specific attributes

the impact of reserve prices on the perceived bias of expert appraisals of fine art we examine whether the expert appraisals provided to bidders before major art auctions are unbiased indicators of market value despite a strong grounding in theory this aspect of optimal auction design has been frequently challenged in previous empirical research particularly in the market for fine art we adopt a valuation benchmark that incorporates sellers reservation prices as well as high bids and recognize latent censoring due to works that fail to make reserve although the auction houses never divulge sellers reserve prices which are therefore unobservable we exploit the fact that they can be observed indirectly via their impact on buy in rates using the set of french impressionist paintings brought to auction from 1985 to 2001 we estimate the distribution of seller reserve prices establish their link to a proper valuation benchmark and isolate the selection bias due to bought in works on the perceived market value of fine art works brought to auction after controlling for the impact of reservation prices and considering all works brought to auction and therefore all works appraised we find no evidence of bias in the experts pre sale estimates

labouring over productivity estimates a comment on hirsch and hausman s model of coal miners productivity 1874 1914 an article by hirsch and hausman economica 1983 rekindled a long standing debate concerning the causes of falling labour productivity in the british coal mining industry during the four decades before the first world war this paper provides results which correct the econometric estimates of the model presented in the article two corrections are made one relates to a value for the dependent variable in the south wales case the other allows for the two year lag which is required by the fiml system specified in the article

non temporal components of residential real estate appreciation this paper separates the components of capital appreciation returns in an asset market into fixed and stochastic portions it proposes a control for the problem of fixed components in the capital appreciation return used in transactions based return estimates we find a consistent bias in the index resulting from repeat sales regressions which may be eliminated through simple methods the sign and magnitude of the bias as well as its systematic variation across property suggest that it is caused by incremental home improvements as well as by price risk we propose a maximum likelihood method for estimating the first and second moments of the fixed and temporal components of real estate returns that relies upon relatively small samples copyright 1995 by mit press

the auction market for modern prints confirmations contradictions and new puzzles using a large data set with 80 214 repeat sales we find that the real return on a diversified portfolio of modern prints sold at auctions worldwide averaged a modest 1 51 during the period 1977 2004 we address several issues regarding the performance of modern prints as investments the selection bias arising from the self interest of auction houses the impact of an ever expanding universe of auction houses on investment returns the masterpiece effect or whether more expensive works of art outperform the market as a whole and the differences in returns that arise due to random fluctuations in collector tastes jel z11 g11 g14

estimation of a hedonic price equation for bordeaux wine does quality matter in this paper the hedonic price technique is applied to bordeaux wine in the hedonic price function we include not only the objective characteristics appearing on the label of the bottle but also the sensory characteristics of the wine our data come from an experimental study in which juries have evaluated and graded a sample of bordeaux wines the estimation of the hedonic price equation shows that the market price is essentially determined by the objective characteristics the estimation of a jury grade equation shows that quality unlike the market price is essentially determined by the sensory characteristics

the wrong kind of transparency in a model of career concerns for experts when is a principal hurt from observing more information about her agent this paper introduces a distinction between information on the consequence of the agent s action and information directly on the agent s action when the latter kind of information is available the agent faces an incentive to disregard useful private signals and act according to how an able agent is expected to act a priori this conformist behavior hurts the principal in two ways the decision made by the agent is less likely to be the right one discipline and ex post it is more difficult to evaluate the agent s ability sorting the paper identifies a necessary and sufficient condition on the agent signal structure under which the principal bene ts from committing not to observe the agent s action the paper also shows the existence of strategic complementarities between information on action and information on consequence the results on the distinction between action and consequence are then used to interpret existing disclosure policies in delegated portfolio management in particular they are consistent with hitherto puzzling evidence that mutual funds systematically overperform pension funds

auctions market efficiency and the trade in second hand and antique silver using a new large unique database relating to silver goods sold at two major uk auction houses we show that the scrap value of silver plays a significant role in determining the realised prices of items sold at silver auctions however although scrap silver can be sold for cash at guaranteed prices almost immediately arbitrage opportunities are extremely limited just over 6 of silver goods sell below scrap value but once the buyer s premium is allowed for the opportunity for profit is tiny