the fisher hypothesis and the forecastability and persistence of inflation abstract for the period 1860 to 1939 the simple correlation of the u s commercial paper rate with the contemporaneous inflation rate is 0 17 the corresponding correlation for the period 1950 to 1979 is 0 71 this paper attributes this apparent change in the fisher relation to differences in the stochastic process of inflation rather than a change in any structural relationship between interest rates and expected inflation contrary to recent claims in the literature there is little evidence of inflation non neutrality in data from the pre world war i period

liquidity effects and the monetary transmission mechanism several recent papers provide strong empirical support for the view that an expansionary monetary policy disturbance generates a persistent decrease in interest rates and a persistent increase in output and employment existing quantitative general equilibrium models which allow for capital accumulation are inconsistent with this view there does exist a recently developed class of general equilibrium models which can rationalize the contemporaneous response of interest rates output and employment to a money supply shock however a key shortcoming of these models is that they cannot rationalize persistent liquidity effects this paper discusses the basic frictions and mechanisms underlying this new class of models and investigates one avenue for generating persistence we argue that once a simplified version of the model in christiano and eichenbaum 1991 is modified to allow for extremely small costs of adjusting sectoral flow of funds positive money shocks generate long lasting quantitatively significant liquidity effects as well as persistent increases in aggregate economic activity

standard promotion practices versus up or out contracts this article develops a theory concerning the choice between standard promotion practices and up or out contracts our theory is based on asymmetric learning and promotion incentives we find that firms employ up or out contracts when firm specific human capital is low and standard promotion practices when it is high we also find that if commitment to a wage floor is feasible and effort provision is important up or out is employed when low and high level jobs are similar these results are consistent with many of the settings in which up or out is typically observed such as law firms and academia

the two faces of governance responses to legal uncertainty in u s firms 1955 to 1985 recent neoinstitutional analyses have associated the rapid diffusion of due process governance mechanisms in the american workplace with government pressure for equal employment opportunity and affirmative action we carry the argument forward in three ways first we focus on grievance procedures and employment at will clauses to show that the legalization process produces both rights enhancing and rights negating rules second we focus on the private for profit economic sector to test more effectively the efficiency and labor control theories that have fared poorly in previous neoinstitutional studies third we explore the interactions among personnel professionals lawyers and the state in the adoption of legalistic governance mechanisms results sustain the neoinstitutional argument but also offer new support for efficiency and labor control hypotheses

the moral limits of predictive practices the case of credit based insurance scores corporations gather massive amounts of personal data to predict how individuals will behave so that they can profitably price goods and allocate resources this article investigates the moral found

from plan to plant effects of certification on operational start up in the emergent independent power sector in this paper we study the transition from planned venture to operational start up in the emergent independent power sector planned ventures face tremendous obstacles in assembling the resources necessary to begin operations we hypothesize and show that formal certification from authorized actors increases the likelihood of making this transition moreover we find that the effects of certification are contingent on the legitimacy of the sector as a whole certifications have a stronger effect on start ups when sector legitimacy is low than when it is high this research helps us understand a rarely studied organizational transition from entrepreneurial intention to actual operations within nascent sectors it directs attention to the legitimating effects of formal certification highlights the importance of a multilevel approach to legitimacy and contributes to the growing rapprochement between entrepreneurial studies and institutional theory

inflation dynamics the role of expectations the modelling of expectations and its degree of backward looking behaviour are issues of main concern in the in ation dynamics research agenda one approach in the literature is to use expectations from surveys as an approximation to actual expectations this method avoids particular assumptions on expectations and their degree of rationality we estimate the phillips curve allowing for a simultaneous role of rational and survey expectations we formulate both a generalization of the usual phillips curve and a structural version in the spirit of gal and gertler 1999 we flnd that marginal cost determines in ation while the role of detrended output appears to be problematic we also flnd that survey expectations are an important component of in ation dynamics but they do not fully re ect economic agents rationality a signiflcant level of rationality is found even when controlling for survey expectations jel classiflcation e31

organizational responses to public and private politics an analysis of climate change activists and u s oil and gas firms we explore how activists public and private politics elicit different organizational responses using data on u s petroleum companies from 1982 to 2010 we investigate how climate change activists serving as witnesses at congressional hearings and engaging in firm protests influenced firms internal and external responses we find that public politics induced internally focused practice adoption whereas private politics induced externally focused framing activities we also find that private and public politics had an interaction effect as firms faced more private political pressure they were less likely to respond to public political pressures similarly as firms faced greater public political pressure they were less likely to respond to private political pressures the results suggest that activists can have a significant impact on firm behavior depending on the mix of private and public political tactics they engage in we discuss the implications of our study for social movement research organ

a new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the business cycle abstract this paper introduces a general procedure for decomposition of non stationary time series into a permanent and transitory component allowing both components to be stochastic the permanent component is shown to be a random walk with drift and the transitory or cyclical component is a stationary process with mean zero the decomposition methodology which depends only on past data and therefore is computable in real time is applied to the problem of measuring and dating business cycles in the portwar u s economy we find that measured expansions and contractions are of roughly equivalent duration and that our dating of cyclical episodes tends to lead the traditional nber dating and to a lesser extent the growth cycle chronology of zarnowitz and boschan 1977

the genesis of inflation and the costs of disinflation this essay asks how high inflation arises and why it is costly to eliminate specifically the paper discusses the roles of price rigidity and credibility problems in explaining the costs of disinflation the puzzle of persistent inflation triggered by onetime macroeconomic shocks and the case for returning to adaptive expectations in theories of inflation this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

social movements and organizational form cooperative alternatives to corporations in the american insurance dairy and grain industries how do social movements promote diversity and alternative organizational forms we address this question by analyzing how cooperative enterprise was affected by the grange a leading anticorporate movement in the united states during the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries state level analyses across three industries yield three findings first the grange had positive effects on cooperatives and mutuals during the nineteenth century populist struggles over corporate capitalism second these effects were stronger where corporations counter mobilized to block challengers political efforts grangers pursued economic organization as an alternative to politics and in response to blocked political access third the grange continued to foster cooperatives even as populist revolts waned it did so however by buffering cooperatives from problems of group heterogeneity and population change rendering them less dependent on supportive communities and specific economic conditions these findings advance research at the movements organizations interface by documenting movement effects and by isolating different causal pathways through which mobilization counter mobilization and political opportunity shape economic organization the results also provide economic sociology with new evidence on how social structure moderates economic forces and help revise institutional analyses of american capitalism by showing how cooperatives emerged as significant rather than aberrant elements of the u s economy

the stages of the policy process and the equal rights amendment 1972 1982 studies of how social movements impact policy outcomes typically treat policy change as a dichotomous phenomenon a governmental unit either adopts or does not adopt a particular policy in a particular time frame this simplistic view of the policy process runs the risk of masking how movements and other factors matter at various stages of the policy process each stage is characterized by different rules and different consequences thus movements and other factors ought to matter differently at each stage the authors examine three stages of policy development with regard to state ratification of the equal rights amendment results show that movements mattered more to legislative decisions in the earlier stages of the policy process but that their effects were eclipsed in later stages by public opinion

is inflation sticky abstract new keynesian sticky price models predict that monetary policy can affect real variables however they also predict that inflation can be reduced without depressing output or employment in fact bringing down inflation is costly presenting a challenge to the new keynesian model two departures from the new keynesian model predict costly disinflation one assumes sticky inflation rather than sticky prices while the other assumes less than perfectly rational expectations taking into account information from surveys of inflation expectations i find the evidence suggests that inflation is not sticky and that inflation expectations are less than perfectly rational

regulating american industries markets politics and the institutional determinants of fire insurance regulation1 this article assesses three approaches to state regulation capture theory interest group analyses and neoinstitutional research state level event history analyses of fire insurance rate regulation from 1906 to 1930 are used contrary to capture theory regulation was not driven simply by firms interests in market control instead consistent with interest group analyses regulation was more likely when anticompany forces farmers and small businesses could challenge big business politically further as neoinstitutional research suggests regulation was more likely when industry governance evoked legitimacy crises when courts and professions endorsed regulation and its underlying models and when states developed system wide administrative capacities institutional conditions also mediated the effects of markets and politics on regulation using these findings we develop a theory of how political and institutional conditions shape industries governance options

davids against goliath collective identities and the market success of peripheral organizations during resource partitioning this paper contributes to the sociology of markets literature by arguing that collective identities sustain the market success of peripheral producers during the process of resource partitioning two conditions underlie the positive returns obtained by peripheral producers from their identity claims first the demise of near center producers crystallizes the difference among classes of organizations which benefits the market success of peripheral producers second individual peripheral producers i facing an audience that values their identity claims and ii exhibiting credible engagement with their claimed identity encounter greater market success our contributions to the literature are discussed

are output fluctuations transitory according to the conventional view of the business cycle fluctuations in output represent temporary deviations from trend the purpose of this paper is to question this conventional view if fluctuations in output are dominated by temporary deviations from the natural rate of output then an unexpected change in output today should not substantially change one s forecast of output in say five or ten years our examination of quarterly postwar united states data leads us to be skeptical about this implication the data suggest that an unexpected change in real gnp of 1 percent should change one s forecast by over 1 percent over a long horizon

structuring a theory of moral sentiments institutional and organizational coevolution in the early thrift industry the authors investigate the coevolution of organizations and institu tions they study how institutional definitions rules and expectations unfold in tandem with the organizational structures and processes that embody those institutions the research site is the early thrift industry changes in thrifts technical environment the rise of a transient and heterogeneous population and institutional environment the rise of progressivism propelled this coevolutionary process the coevolution of thrift organizations and institutions proceeded primarily through selection adaptation was constrained by both institutional factors it was difficult to adopt a novel institutional logic and technical factors early thrifts were generally small so entry and exit were easy

learning with expert advice surveys of inflation forecasts show that expectations combine forward looking and backwardlooking elements this contradicts conventional wisdom in the presence of rational agents adaptiveagentswouldbedrivenoutofthemarket inourpaper werationalizethisfindinginan equilibrium framework our model has two types of agents one having rational expectations and the other using adaptive learning the proportion of these agents in the population evolves according to their past forecasting performance we show that even an underparameterized learning algorithm survives competition with rational expectations jel c62 d83 d84

the contingent nature of public policy and the growth of u s commercial banking runner up academy of management s best published paper in organization and management theory in 2009

rational expectations and macroeconomic forecasts the article presents extensive results from testing for bias and serially correlated errors in a collection of time series of quarterly multiperiod forecasts for six variables including real gnp growth inflation and unemployment the analysis covers responses by 79 frequent participants in economic outlook surveys conducted regularly since 1968 it shows much greater incidence of apparently systematic errors for inflation than for the other variables also the tests are more favorable to composite group forecasts than to most of the individual forecast sets

state timing of policy adoption workmen s compensation in the united states 1909 1929 using event history analysis this study of workmen s compensation analyzes how fast american state legislators responded to the work accident problem states were quicker to adopt legislation when productivity and work accident litigation were high and when nonagricultural workers outnumbered agricultural ones despite the influence of capital and labor in shaping workmen s compensation in other analyses the speed of state legislation was unaffected by the presence or interests of capital and labor groups this suggests that the speed of adoption was shaped by a different aspect of capital labor relations than is seen when studies focus on the activities of specific actors or groups

the coevolution of industries social movements and institutions wind power in the united states this study of the u s wind energy industry extends theory on the process of industry emergence by developing and testing a coevolutionary model of the relationship between social movement organizations smos institutions and industries building on research that suggests that smos can influence institutions and the path of emerging industries we show that the growth of an industry can also influence the diversity of social movements by motivating the participation of specialist smos these new smos in turn deploy distinct knowledge capabilities goals and strategies to produce institutional changes that are necessary for the continued growth of the industry our study offers a more complete conceptualization of the influence of social movements on industry emergence and growth and it extends understanding of how smo diversity is produced

testing the rationality of price forecasts new evidence from panel data this paper tests the rationality of individual price forecasts in a panel of professional forecasters here unlike in most previous studies rationality is not rejected the results here differ because 1 using individual forecasts avoids aggregation bias 2 comparison of forecasts to initial data avoids bias due to data revision 3 the professional forecasters have economic incentives to state their expectations accurately and 4 a new covariance matrix estimator consistent when forecast errors are correlated across individuals is used copyright 1990 by american economic association

expectations and the effects of monetary policy this paper examines the predictive power of shifts in monetary policy as measured by changes in the real federal funds rate for output inflation and survey expectations of these variables we find that policy shifts have larger effects on actual output than on expected output thus policy predicts errors in output expectations a violation of rational expectations policy shifts do not predict errors in inflation expectations we explain these results with a model in which agents systematically underestimate the effects of policy on aggregate demand this model helps to explain the real effects of policy

economic forecasts rationality and the processing of new information over time this study analyzes real gnp and inflation forecasts published in the blue chip economic indicators the survey revises annual growth rate estimates every month thus making it possible to analyze the value of new information and its contribution to the estimates predictive power of the actual values if information is used efficiently updated forecasts should provide more accurate predictions the empirical results suggest that the revised forecasts of real gnp growth and inflation incorporate new information in a rational manner in addition the most recent inflation forecasts are found to be unbiased estimates on the actual rate of inflation copyright 1990 by ohio state university press

assessing the temporal variation of macroeconomic forecasts by a panel of changing composition this paper calls attention to the problem of changing panel composition in surveys of forecasters and documents the problem in the survey of professional forecasters to study the temporal variation of forecasts we recommend analysis of the time series of predictions made by individual forecasters this makes transparent the heterogeneity of the panel and avoids improper inferences due to changing panel composition we warn against the traditional practice of aggregate time series analysis which con ates changes in the expectations of individual forecasters with changes in the composition of the panel should analysis of aggregated predictions be thought desirable as a simplifying device we recommend analyses of sub panels of xed composition

heterogeneity learning and information stickiness in inflation expectations in this paper we propose novel techniques for the empirical analysis of adaptive learning and sticky information in inflation expectations these methodologies are applied to the distribution of households inflation expectations collected by the university of michigan survey research center to account for the evolution of the cross section of inflation forecasts over time and measure the degree of heterogeneity in private agents forecasts we explore time series of percentiles from the empirical distribution our results show that heterogeneity is pervasive in the process of inflation expectation formation we identify three regions of the distribution that correspond to different underlying mechanisms of expectation formation a static or highly autoregressive region on the left hand side of the median a nearly rational region around the median and a fraction of forecasts on the right hand side of the median formed in accordance with adaptive learning and sticky information

institutional emergence in an era of globalization the rise of transnational private regulation of labor and environmental conditions1 why have systems of transnational private regulation recently emerged to certify corporate social and environmental performance different conceptions of institutional emergence underlie different answers to this question many scholars argue that firms create certification systems to solve problems in the market a view rooted in a conception of institutions as solutions to collective action problems the author develops a different account by viewing institutions as the outcome of political contestation and by analyzing conflict and institutional entrepreneurship among a wide array of actors using a comparative case study design the analysis shows how these arguments explain the formation of social and environmental certification associations both theoretical approaches are needed but strong versions of the market based approach overlook an important set of dynamics that the author calls the political construction of market institutions the analysis shows how both problem solving in markets and

through the contested terrain implementation of downsizing announcements by large u s firms 1984 to 2005 since the 1980s leading u s firms have announced massive downsizing plans in the name of maximizing shareholder value but some observers are skeptical about how serious firms are in implementing

blue chip rationality tests this paper tests the rationality of forecasts made by individuals who contribute to the blue chip consensus forecasting service and tries by means of a questionnaire on forecasting methods to establish why some forecasters appear more rational than others tests based on consensus forecasts prove unreliable as guides to the number of individuals who produce rational forecasts individual forecasts are more likely to be rational if they are based on a mainstream economic theory and incorporate a substantial element of judgment copyright 1991 by ohio state university press

tests of the rational expectations hypothesis this paper reviews evidence on the structure of anticipation from a number of empirical studies jack muth s rational expectations hypothesis is compared with a variety of alternative models including ferber s law the implicit expectations model of edwin mills and muth s new errors in the variables model the cumulative evidence is of such strength as to compel the suspension of belief in the concept of rational expectations this implies that it is a mistake to proceed under the maintained hypothesis that expectations are rational instead it is necessary to test the sensitivity of empirical and theoretical results to alternative assumptions about the structure by which anticipations are generated copyright 1986 by american economic association

laws of attraction regulatory arbitrage in the face of activism in right to work states past research recognizes that firms exploit regulatory variations to their advantage but depicts such regulatory arbitrage as a dyadic process between firms and regulators we extend this account b