maritime oil freight flows to 2050 delphi perceptions of maritime specialists abstract this paper aims to synthesise maritime specialists perceptions of changing patterns of maritime oil freight flows to 2050 debate spans published maritime oil flows globally diverse drivers of future flows including economic growth shipping market changes and haul lengths a classic delphi study to explore the perceptions of likely trends and flows to 2050 recruited a panel of early career and established maritime specialists many with long term career commitments to this industry underpinned by market volatility and legislative uncertainty the perceptions of both groups coincided and were conservative local sourcing new arctic seaways and fossil fuel intolerance will tend to reduce oil freight work but perceptions of ship re routing to avoid for example emission control areas and piracy would tend to lengthen hauls in advanced industrial nations reducing energy intensities and diminishing social tolerance of fossil fuels imply gradually reducing maritime oil shipments however to achieve radical national commitments to carbon emissions reductions will necessitate specialist education for naturally conservative maritime professionals and vigorous oil import reduction policies to curtail domestic demand for oil shipments

the federal funds rate and the channels of monetary transmission the authors show that the interest rate on federal funds is extremely informative about future movements of real macroeconomic variables then they argue that the reason for this forecasting success is that the funds rate sensitively records shocks to the supply of bank reserves that is the funds rate is a good indicator of monetary policy actions finally using innovations to the funds rate as a measure of changes in policy the authors present evidence consistent with the view that monetary policy works at least in part through credit i e bank loans as well as through money i e bank deposits copyright 1992 by american economic association

uncertainty in the availability of natural resources fossil fuels critical metals and biomass energy policies are strongly influenced by resource availability and recoverability estimates yet these estimates are often highly uncertain frequently incommensurable and regularly contested this paper explores how the uncertainties surrounding estimates of the availability of fossil fuels biomass and critical metals are conceptualised and communicated the contention is that a better understanding of the uncertainties surrounding resource estimates for both conventional and renewable energy resources can contribute to more effective policy decision making in the long term two complementary approaches for framing uncertainty are considered in detail a descriptive typology of uncertainties and a framework that conceptualises uncertainty as alternative states of incomplete knowledge both have the potential to be useful analytical and communication tools for the three resource types considered here we find that data limitations inconsistent definitions and the use of incommensurable methodologies present a pervasive problem that impedes comparison many aspects of resource uncertainty are also not commonly captured in the conventional resource classification schemes this highlights the need for considerable care when developing and comparing aggregate resource estimates and when using these to inform strategic energy policy decisions

a comparison of oil supply risks in eu us japan china and india under different climate scenarios for many countries the inflow of energy is essential to keep economies running oil is typically considered to be the most critical fuel as an input for the petro chemical and transportation sector and due to limited and less spread reserves in this study external oil supply risks are assessed for the period up to 2035 for the european union united states china japan and india being the five largest importers of oil in the world based on their current supplier portfolio scenarios are constructed for several climate policy and oil supply projections it is found that risks increase strongly when stringent climate policies are prevented from being implemented especially when a peak in oil supply is taken into account resulting in major oil supply disruptions china faces the lowest oil supply risks in most scenarios but the trends of india china and us converge over time due to increasing import dependency of china and india japan faces high risks since the country has the highest oil import dependency combined with a low oil import diversification for the eu all figures are strongly influenced by russia accounting for 32 of total imports and to a lesser extent norway 11 with high overall risks

interest rate smoothing and price level trend stationarity abstract this paper discusses the definition and mechanics of central bank interest rate smoothing under rational expectations a tension arising between interest rate smoothing and macroeconomic stabilization objectives induces non trend stationary price level and money stock behavior the paper thereby helps explain why such nominal non stationarities are widely observed further implications are drawn for base drift distribution of real returns on long term fixed rate nominal debt and operating characteristics of interest rate pegs and policy instruments

economic development and the demand for energy a historical perspective on the next 20 years abstract this paper draws on evidence from the last two centuries of industrialisation analysing the evolution of energy intensity over the long and short run we argue that the increased specialisation of the fuel mix coupled with accelerating convergence of both the sectoral and technological composition of economies will continue to improve energy intensity of economic output and to reduce the reliance on any single energy resource this analysis suggests that even high growth in per capita income over the next 20 years need not be constrained by resource availability

energy security analysis the case of constrained oil supply for ireland abstract ireland imports 88 of its energy requirements oil makes up 59 of total final energy consumption tfc import dependency low fuel diversity and volatile prices leave ireland vulnerable in terms of energy security this work models energy security scenarios for ireland using long term macroeconomic forecasts to 2050 with oil production and price scenarios from the international monetary fund within the irish times energy systems model the analysis focuses on developing a least cost optimum energy system for ireland under scenarios of constrained oil supply 0 8 annual import growth and 2 annual import decline and subsequent sustained long term price shocks to oil and gas imports the results point to gas becoming the dominant fuel source for ireland at 54 total final energy consumption in 2020 supplanting oil from reference projections of 57 to 10 8 tfc in 2012 the cost of net oil imports stood at 3 6 billion 2 26 gdp the modelled high oil and gas price scenarios show an additional annual cost in comparison to a reference of between 2 9bn and 7 5bn by 2020 1 9 4 9 of gdp to choose to develop a least cost energy system investment and ramifications for energy security are discussed

energy return on energy invested eroi oil prices and energy transitions very little work has been done so far to model test and understand the relationship between oil prices and eroi over time this paper investigates whether a declining eroi is associated with an increasing oil price and speculates on the implications of these results on oil policy a model of the relationship between eroi and oil market prices was developed using basic economic and physical assumptions and non linear least squares regression models to correlate oil production price with eroi using available data from 1954 1996 the model accurately reflects historical oil prices 1954 1996 and it correlates well with historical oil prices 1997 2010 if a linear extrapolation of eroi decline is assumed as eroi declines below 10 highly non linear oil price movements are observed increasing physical oil scarcity is already providing market signals that would stimulate a transition away from oil toward alternative energy sources but price signals of physical oil scarcity are not sufficient to guarantee smooth transitions to alternative fuel sources especially when there is insufficient oil extraction technology development a declining mark up ratio a non linear eroi cost of production relationship and a non linear eroi price relationship

inflation output variance trade offs and optimal monetary policy the author estimates the inflation output gap variance trade off faced by monetary policymakers in the united states for policymakers who care about deviations of inflation around target and output around potential the estimated trade off represents the optimal policy frontier given the structure of the economy policymakers can do no better than to attain weighted variances of inflation and output that lie on the frontier the author finds that the variance trade off becomes quite severe when the standard deviation of inflation or output drops much below 2 percent this suggests that approximately balanced responses to policy goals are consistent with reasonable preferences over inflation and output variability copyright 1997 by ohio state university press

assessing the date of the global oil peak the need to use 2p reserves combining geological knowledge with proved plus probable 2p oil discovery data indicates that over 60 countries are now past their resource limited peak of conventional oil production the data show that the global peak of conventional oil production is close many analysts who rely only on proved 1p oil reserves data draw a very different conclusion but proved oil reserves contain no information about the true size of discoveries being variously under reported over reported and not reported reliance on 1p data has led to a number of misconceptions including the notion that past oil forecasts were incorrect that oil reserves grow very significantly due to technology gain and that the global supply of oil is ensured provided sufficient investment is forthcoming to turn resources into reserves these misconceptions have been widely held including within academia governments some oil companies and organisations such as the iea in addition to conventional oil the world contains large quantities of non conventional oil most current detailed models show that past the conventional oil peak the non conventional oils are unlikely to come on stream fast enough to offset conventional s decline to determine the extent of future oil supply constraints calculations are required to determine fundamental rate limits for the production of non conventional oils as well as oil from gas coal and biomass and of oil substitution such assessments will need to examine technological readiness and lead times as well as rate constraints on investment pollution and net energy return

the end of cheap oil bottom up economic and geologic modeling of aggregate oil production curves there is a lively debate between concerned and unconcerned analysts regarding the future availability and affordability of oil we critically examine two interrelated and seemingly plausible ar

a blessing in disguise the implications of high global oil prices for the north american market abstract we examine the implications of increased unconventional crude oil production in north america this production increase has been made possible by the existence of alternative oil recovery technologies and persistently elevated oil prices that make these technologies commercially viable we first discuss the factors that have enabled the united states to expand production so rapidly and the glut of oil inventory that has accumulated in the midwest as a result of logistical challenges and export restrictions next we assess the extent to which the increase in u s domestic production will affect global supply conditions and whether the u s experience can be repeated in other countries with unconventional oil sources the evidence suggests that even in the best case scenario the increase in u s oil production is unlikely to have a large effect on the global oil market s demand supply balance so its effect on the price of oil is expected to be limited furthermore the united states enjoys unique infrastructural and technological advantages that make it unlikely that rapid increases in unconventional production can be achieved elsewhere

global oil depletion a review of the evidence within the polarised and contentious debate over future oil supply a growing number of commentators are forecasting a near term peak and subsequent decline in production but although liquid fuels form the foundation of modern industrial economies the growing debate on peak oil has relatively little influence on energy and climate policy with this in mind the uk energy research centre ukerc has conducted an independent thorough and systematic review of the evidence with the aim of establishing the current state of knowledge identifying key uncertainties and improving consensus the study focuses upon the physical depletion of conventional oil in the period to 2030 and includes an in depth literature review analysis of industry databases and a detailed comparison of global supply forecasts this communication summarises the main findings of the ukerc study a key conclusion is that a peak of conventional oil production before 2030 appears likely and there is a significant risk of a peak before 2020

monetary policy trade offs and the correlation between nominal interest rates and real output the authors present a structural model of the u s economy that combines their price contracting specification with a term structure relationship an aggregate demand curve and a monetary policy reaction function the model matches important features of postwar data well and provides a structural explanation of the correlation between real output and the short term nominal rate of interest the authors perform a battery of monetary policy experiments that show that as viewed through the lens of this model monetary policy has struck a good balance recently among competing monetary policy objectives copyright 1995 by american economic association

future oil supply the changing stance of the international energy agency the iea was established in 1974 with a mandate to promote energy security amongst its members namely the states of the oecd and to advise those members on sound energy policy its recent forecasts of the medium and long term prospects for oil supply however have wavered alternating from optimistic to pessimistic and back again for policy makers such inconsistency is difficult to deal with firstly we examine whether the changing outlooks seen in iea forecasts made between 2007 and 2010 truly reflect a demonstrable underlying change in the known facts and we can find no such factual changes reported by the iea secondly we examine whether the serious criticisms of the iea s 2008 forecast made by other analysts have yet been addressed and we conclude that they have not thirdly we consider the possible effects of the current economic downturn upon the iea s assumptions and upon future oil supply we conclude that all the forecasts made by the iea appear to be too optimistic throughout this period

an optimizing is lm specification for monetary policy and business cycle analysis we ask whether relations of the is lm type can sensibly be used for the aggregate demand portion of a dynamic optimizing general equilibrium model intended for analysis of issues regarding monetary policy and cyclical fluctuations the main result is that only one change the addition of a term regarding expected future income is needed to make the is function match a fully optimizing model whereas no changes are needed for the lm function this modification leads to a dynamic forward looking model of aggregate demand that is tractable and usable with a wide variety of aggregate supply specifications theoretical applications concerning price level determinacy and gradual price adjustment are included

energy requirements of consumption urban form climatic and socio economic factors rebounds and their policy implications household consumption requires energy to be used at all stages of the economic process thereby directly and indirectly leading to environmental impacts across the entire production chain the levels structure and determinants of energy requirements of household consumption therefore constitute an important avenue of research incorporating the full upstream requirements into the analysis helps to avoid simplistic conclusions which would actually only imply shifts between consumption categories without taking the economy wide effects into account this paper presents the investigation of the direct and indirect primary energy requirements of australian households contrasting urban suburban and rural consumption patterns as well as inter and intra regional levels of inequality in energy requirements furthermore the spatial and socio economic drivers of energy consumption for different categories of energy requirements are identified and quantified conclusions regarding the relationships between energy requirements household characteristics urban form and urbanization processes are drawn and the respective policy implications are explored

does the fed act gradually a var analysis abstract the tendency for changes in the federal funds rate to be implemented gradually has been considered evidence of an interest rate smoothing objective for the federal reserve this paper investigates whether gradual funds rate movements can be explained by the dynamic structure of the economy and the uncertainty surrounding that structure without recourse to including an ad hoc interest rate smoothing argument in the fed s objective function in the absence of parameter uncertainty the optimal policy involves more aggressive movements in the funds rate than observed parameter uncertainty however limits the responsiveness of the interest rate as a result the optimal policy under parameter uncertainty can account for a considerable portion of the gradualism observed

alternatives to conventional crude oil when how quickly and market driven abstract we examine the effect of uncertainty concerning remaining supplies of conventional crude oil and its production path on the date alternative fuels will be needed the quantity of alternative fuels needed and how this uncertainty affects firms willingness to provide alternatives in a timely fashion despite large uncertainties about the quantity of oil that remains and its production path the start date for replacements is likely to fall within a twenty two year period that is narrower and earlier than previous estimates the twenty two year window represents considerable uncertainty about the date of the peak and this uncertainty creates an asymmetry in the strategy that maximizes the welfare of firms relative to total social welfare which works against the market s ability to generate a smooth transition from oil to alternative fuels the timeliness of this transition is critical the production paths generated here suggest that 10 million barrels per day or more of alternative fuels will be needed within a decade of the peak in production of conventional crude oil

effective climate energy solutions escape routes and peak oil abstract many well intended climate energy strategies are ineffective in the absence of serious environmental regulation this holds among others for direct support of clean energy voluntary energy conservation technical standards on a limited set of products unilateral stringent carbon pricing and awaiting peak oil as a climate strategy all of these suffer from escape routes that indirectly increase co2 emissions and thus make the original strategy ineffective on the other hand environmental regulation alone may lead to a myopia bias stimulating early dominance of cost effective technologies and a focus on incremental innovations associated with such technologies rather than on radical innovations although adopting a partial viewpoint keeps the analysis simple we urgently need a more inclusive systems perspective on climate solutions this will allow the formulation of an effective climate policy package that addresses the various escape routes

formation of buyer seller trade networks in a quality differentiated product market we examine the formation of buyer seller links when exchange can take place only if such a link exists sellers produce products of different qualities and multiple sellers can form a sellers association to pool their customers setting uniform prices buyers form trade links with individual sellers or sellers associations we show which buyer seller links will form and find the set of links that are stable and show how these links influence prices we also show that a trade network mismatch may occur where a high quality good remains unsold even without an economy wide excess supply of goods jel classification d40 d51 d82