commodity price shocks and civil conflict evidence from colombia how do income shocks aect armed con ict theory suggests two op posite eects if labor is used to appropriate resources violently higher wages may lower con ict by reducing labor supplied to appropriation this is the opportunity cost eect alternatively a rise in contestable income may increase violence by raising gains from appropriation this is the rapacity eect our paper exploits exogenous price shocks in inter national commodity markets and a rich dataset on civil war in colombia to assess how dierent income shocks aect con ict we examine changes in the price of agricultural goods which are labor intensive and natural resources which are capital intensive we focus on coee and oil the two largest exports we nd that a sharp fall in coee prices in the 1990s increased violence dierentially in regions growing more coee by lower ing wages and the opportunity cost of joining armed groups in contrast a rise in oil prices increased violence dierentially in the oil region by in creasing municipal revenue siphoned through rapacity this pattern holds in several other agricultural and natural resource sectors providing robust evidence that price shocks aect con ict in opposite directions depending on the factor intensity of the commodity

why democracies produce efficient results by applying the standard tools of microeconomic analysis i argue that democratic markets work as well as economic markets in particular i show that previous work has greatly exaggerated the existence of principal agent and informational problems in electoral markets and has drawn incorrect conclusions

decomposing intergenerational income elasticity the gender differentiated contribution of capital transmission in rural philippines summary using longitudinal data from rural philippines we decompose intergenerational income elasticity ige into five distinct pathways intergenerational transmissions of health education land and spouse education capital plus residual correlation in productivity intergenerational human capital transmissions from mothers are stronger than those from fathers maternal education is the parental capital most strongly associated with ige while naive ige estimates are indistinguishable for sons and daughters the pathways that generate these results differ strikingly for sons ige is entirely explained by parent to child capital transmission by contrast strong income correlation exists between daughters and parents even after controlling for parent and child capital endowments

global energy subsidies an analytical taxonomy governments around the world have pledged to eliminate or sharply reduce subsidies to energy firms in order to increase economic efficiency and reduce environmental externalities yet definitions of subsidies vary widely and as a result estimates of their global magnitude vary by orders of magnitude i review why energy subsidies are so difficult to define and measure i show why some non standard measures are very poor proxies for subsidy costs and in fact may vary inversely with them in particular recent attempts to treat unpriced externalities as subsidies yield especially misleading results in general energy subsidies as conventionally understood do exist but only comprise a small portion of some very large recently reported estimates the bulk of which are indirect measures that may have little connection with actual costs to governments or allocational inefficiencies

do barriers to candidacy reduce political competition evidence from a bachelor s degree requirement for legislators in pakistan in the 2002 election candidates for pakistan s federal legislature had to possess at least a bachelor s degree this policy disqualified 60 out of the 207 incumbent legislators from running for election again using a difference in differences approach with panel data on all electoral constituencies in pakistan i find that this ballot access restriction does not affect political competition across all constituencies with disqualified incumbents equally stronger political competition is defined as a larger number of candidates contesting election a smaller vote share and vote margin for the winning candidate and a less concentrated candidate field as measured by a herfindahl hirschman index hhi of vote shares competition declined significantly in constituencies where the disqualified incumbent belonged to a small party and where literacy levels were lower signifying a smaller pool of substitute candidates however political competition increased in areas where the disqualified incumbent was stronger in terms of his winning vote margin

fuel riots definition evidence and policy implications for a new type of energy related conflict abstract fuel riots are a distinct type of energy related conflict we provide the first fuel riots database and explore their social economic and environmental drivers the analysis demonstrates links between fuel riots and high international crude oil prices in countries characterised by weak state capacity deficient governance fuel scarcity and poor economic performance we suggest a potential causal pathway for fuel riots when international fuel prices spike net fuel importing countries bear higher costs if these countries are politically unstable and their government inefficient the likelihood of fuel riots is high wealthier countries can absorb price increases and maintain subsidies as opposed to poorer societies where fuel riots are more likely our findings demonstrate the role of state capacity and socio economic conditions in enabling conflict and will inform policy by identifying fertile ground for fuel riots i e societies likely to be affected by increases in fuel prices due to scarcity and climate action such as carbon taxes we propose that policies which better control international prices and action designed to reduce political instability in vulnerable countries are key to preventing fuel riots fuel subsidy reform must anticipate popular opposition and mitigate the impact upon vulnerable populations in order to reduce the likelihood of instability and minimise hardship

the first law of petropolitics finalversion received19 april2011 we examine empirically the relationship between crude oil prices and the ebb and ow of democratic insti tutions in order to test the hypothesis that high oil prices undermine democracy and sustain autocracy we use a variety of time series and panel data methods over a wide range of country subsamples and timeperiods nding strictly no evidence in favour of this so called first law of petropolitics friedman2006

international commodity prices growth and the outbreak of civil war in sub saharan africa to learn more about the effect of economic conditions on civil war we examine whether sub saharan civil wars are more likely to start following downturns in the international price of countries main export commodities the data show a robust effect of commodity price downturns on the outbreak of civil wars we also find that sub saharan countries are more likely to see civil wars following economic downturns in their main oecd export destinations

the impact of ballot access restrictions on electoral competition evidence from a natural experiment measuring the effect of ballot access restrictions on electoral competition is complicated because the stringency of ballot access regulations cannot be treated as being exogenous to candidates entry decisions this paper exploits the 1968 u s supreme court decision to strike down ohio s ballot access law as a natural experiment to overcome the endogeneity problem the evidence from difference in difference estimations suggests that the court s decision and the accompanying sharp decrease in ohio s petition requirements resulted in major parties facing a significant increase in competition from third party and independent candidates

endogenous coresidence and program incidence south africa s old age pension we investigate whether living arrangements respond to an arguably exogenous shift in the distribution of power in family economic decision making in the early 1990s the south african old age pension was expanded to cover most black south africans above a sex specific age cut off resulting in a substantial increase in the income of older south africans and potentially their say in the economic decisions of their families beneficiaries of the program are more likely to coreside with adults who have less human capital as measured by height and education since height and education are fixed for adults this cannot be an effect of the pension income but reflects selective changes in living arrangements resulting from the pension the findings highlight the endogeneity of living arrangements and illustrate the potential value of moving beyond theory and data that are confined to a spatially determined definition of the household

education returns across quantiles of the wage function alternative explanations for returns to education by race in south america private wage returns to schooling in south africa in 1993 are twice as high for nonwhites as for whites and substantially higher at advanced levels of schooling for both races to explore how these returns might be expected to change as the proportion of africans with secondary and higher education increases quantile regressions for the wage function are estimated for african males and white males if the residuals based on a standard wage function specification are interpreted as omitted ability and it is assumed that ability increases decreases returns to schooling then we expect quantile returns to increase decrease at higher quantiles this is not observed for africans at the higher and secondary school level but is evident among whites at higher educational levels the opposite pattern of differential returns favoring the least able i e lowest deciles is reported for the lower tail of the educational distribution that is for africans at the level of primary school and for whites at secondary school authors

rising food prices food price volatility and social unrest can food prices cause social unrest throughout history riots have frequently broken out ostensibly as a consequence of high food prices using monthly data at the international level this article studies the impact of food prices food price levels as well as food price volatility on social unrest because food prices and social unrest are jointly determined data on natural disasters are used to identify the causal relationship flowing from food price levels to social unrest results indicate that for the period 1990 2011 food price increases have led to increases in social unrest whereas food price volatility has not been associated with increases in social unrest these results are robust to alternative definitions of social unrest to using real or nominal prices to using commodity specific price indices instead of aggregated price indices to alternative definitions of the instrumental variable to alternative definitions of volatility and to controlling for non food related social unrest

oil and revolutionary governments fuel for international conflict oil exporting states or petrostates engage in militarized interstate disputes mids at a much higher rate on average than nonpetrostates why is this so further what explains the variation among the petrostates in adopting aggressive foreign policies and engaging in mids on that basis this article develops a theory that proposes that revolutionary petrostates have a higher propensity to launch mids than comparable nonpetrostates this theory is tested with statistical analysis using a new quantitative data set that identifies revolutionary governments in the period 1945 2001 the results show that petro revolutionary governments constitute a special threat to international peace and security this evidence of resource backed aggression challenges the conventional view of petrostates as the targets of international competition for resources

barriers to competition and the effect on political shirking 1953 1992 economists and political scientists have offered a variety of explanations for why legislators might rationally choose to ignore the preferences of their constituents political parties and presidents the broad conclusion of this literature is that there is an element of shirking in congressional voting the objective of this paper is to suggest that the effects of shirking in congressional voting may have increased over time largely in response to the raising of barriers to competition in congressional elections thereby enabling legislators to vote their own preferences without fear of losing reelection we use a quasi experimental design that controls for the effects of party region electoral safety presidential control of the white house and constituency factors in isolating the causal effects of barriers to entry on a continuous series of roll calls regarding the raising of the debt limit between 1953 and 1992 we find that shirking in legislative voting on debt limit legislation is a post 1970s phenomenon

a drawback of electoral competition in most major democracies there are very few parties compared to the number of possible policy positions held by voters we provide an efficiency rationale for why it might be appropriate to limit the proliferation of parties in our model the larger the number of parties the greater the inefficiency of the outcome of electoral competition the reason is that when the number of parties increases electoral incentives push each party to focus its electoral promises on a narrower constituency and then special interest policies replace more efficient policies that have diffuse benefits the analysis provides a possible explanation for the existence of institutional features that limit the extent of electoral competition thresholds of exclusion runoff electoral systems and majoritarian two party political systems jel d82 l15

independent candidates and political representation in india we estimate the causal effect of independent candidates on voter turnout and election outcomes in india to do this we exploit exogenous changes in the entry deposit candidates pay for their participation in the political process changes that disproportionately excluded candidates with no affiliation to established political parties a one standard deviation increase in the number of independent candidates increases voter turnout by more than 6 percentage points as some voters choose to vote rather than stay home the vote share of independent candidates increases by more than 10 percentage points as some existing voters switch who they vote for thus independents allow winning candidates to win with less vote share decrease the probability of electing a candidate from the governing coalition by about 31 percentage points and ultimately increase the probability of electing an ethnic party candidate altogether the results imply that the price of participation by independents is constituency representation in government

oil price shocks income and democracy he effect of natural resource wealth and income on political institutions is a central issue at the intersection of economics and political sciences we contribute to this research by examining the effect of international oil price fluctuations on democratic institutions over the 1960 2007 period we also exploit the very persistent response of aggregate income to oil prices to study the effect of persistent oil price driven income shocks on democracy our results indicate that countries with greater net oil exports over gdp see improvements in democratic institutions following upturns in international oil prices for example positive oil price shocks lead to improvements in the polity democracy score as well as the subscores for executive constraints executive recruitment and political competition and a higher probability of a democratic transition we estimate that an oil price driven 1 percentage point increase in per capita gdp growth increases the polity democracy score by around 0 2 percentage points on impact and by around 2 percentage points in the long run the effect on the probability of a democratic transition is around 0 4 percentage points our work relates to the literature on the link between political institutions and natural resource wealth and income an influential early contribution is lipset 1959 who documents that high income countries tend to be more democratic he argues that this positive correlation arises because higher per capita income is a symptom of the modernization of society and that modernization also increases citizens demand for political participation the positive association between income and democracy has also been emphasized by huntington 1991 who holds that higher per capita income was one of the key factors behind the

intergroup economic inequality in south africa the post apartheid era one of the most pressing challenges facing the south african government is how to expand the overall opportunity set for nonwhites who have been historically disadvantaged by apartheid this is perhaps best accomplished by expanding employment opportunities within the economy general employment expansion mnust be accomplished keeping in mind the urgent need to radically expand nonwhite employment employment and unemployment statistics are difficult to interpret but there is a general sense that the unemployment situation especially for nonwhites is extremely bad in dealing with employment issues two concerns must be faced both are legacies of the apartheid era the first is related to differences in educational attainment across racial groups during apartheid the bantu education policy was designed to suppress the educational attainment of africans blacks relative to whites however educational opportunities for coloureds mixed race and asians primarily indian were also depressed relative to whites the second concern is that labor market discrimination could be used either to exclude nonwhites for employment consideration or to limit their wages and opportunities once they are employed for policy reasons it is imperative to understand the extent to which premarket or market factors operate to limit opportunities for nonwhites given the institutionalized nature of apartheid segregation one can imagine three scenarios earnings differences could be the result entirely of premarket factors such as education differences alternatively earnings differences could be the result of labor market practices that limit one group s eamings relative to another s a third scenario a synthesis of the former two would find earnings differences to be the result of a combination of premarket differentials and in market discrimination to address premarket discrimination policy would focus entirely on leveling funding and increasing access to educational opportunities for historically disadvantaged groups however legislative forms such as affirmative action would be required to remedy exclusively labormarket discrimination a combination of these policies would be required to deal with the third scenario understanding the relative importance of these factors is important when resource allocation is considered this paper concerns itself with measuring income losses to nonwhites from labor market discrimination to evaluate the extent of labor market discrimination ordinary least squares ols estimates of earnings equations are evaluated for males in each population group observed wage differentials are decomposed into a component attributable to human capital differences while a residual is attributed to labor markelt discrimination these findings are then contrasted to those of others to give a sense of the trend in market discrimination in south africa

when measure matters coresidency truncation bias and intergenerational mobility in developing countries biases from truncation caused by coresidency restriction have been a challenge for research on intergenerational mobility estimates of intergenerational schooling persistence from two data sets show that the intergenerational regression coefficient the most widely used measure is severely biased downward in coresident samples but the bias in intergenerational correlation is much smaller and is less sensitive to the coresidency rate the paper provides explanations for these results comparison of intergenerational mobility based on the intergenerational regression coefficient across countries gender and over time can be misleading much progress on intergenerational mobility in developing countries can be made with the available data by focusing on intergenerational correlation

the decline in intergenerational mobility in post socialism evidence from the bulgarian case summary we examine changes in the statistical association between parents and children s schooling in one post socialist country bulgaria we document its near doubling between 1995 and 2001 for children of less educated parents this produced an absolute decline in average attainment these children were educated during a period of economic depression and significant reductions in public spending which led to school closures and shortages of materials along with increases in out of pocket costs we conclude that the economic and fiscal crisis of the 1990s led to a sharp decline in educational mobility this may have relevance for other countries experiencing similar economic shocks

why do governments subsidize gasoline consumption an empirical analysis of global gasoline prices 2002 2009 abstract governments spend hundreds of billions of dollars annually to subsidize the consumption of fossil fuels without understanding the environmental and economic problems this practice creates to shed light on these problems we examine the case of gasoline subsidies using data on gasoline prices in 137 countries for the years 2002 2009 it is useful to study gasoline pricing because gasoline is the most important transportation fuel and there are data for many countries for the time period of investigation we find that major oil producers subsidize gasoline consumption by artificially reducing prices countries with weak institutional capacity also seem to subsidize gasoline but the effects are weaker these results suggest that policy interventions to improve institutional capacity could help developing countries in particular reduce their fossil fuel subsidies

trade unions v statistical discrimination theory and application to post apartheid south africa a simple model of statistical discrimination is analyzed which captures some stylized facts of the south african labor market it shows that this type of discrimination disappears when the wage rates are determined by efficient bargaining between a representative firm and a union with endogenous membership this may explain why the wage gap between black and white workers in post apartheid south africa is smaller among unionized workers than among non unionized ones

a theory of competition among pressure groups for political influence this paper presents a theory of competition among pressure groups for political influence political equilibrium depends on the efficiency of each group in producing pressure the effect of additional pressure on their influence the number of persons in different groups and the deadweight cost of taxes and subsidies an increase in deadweight costs discourages pressure by subsidized groups and encourages pressure by taxpayers this analysis unifies the view that governments correct market failures with the view that they favor the politically powerful both are produced by the competition for political favors

how large are global fossil fuel subsidies summary this paper estimates fossil fuel subsidies and the economic and environmental benefits from reforming them focusing mostly on a broad notion of subsidies arising when consumer prices are below supply costs plus environmental costs and general consumption taxes estimated subsidies are 4 9 trillion worldwide in 2013 and 5 3 trillion in 2015 6 5 of global gdp in both years undercharging for global warming accounts for 22 of the subsidy in 2013 air pollution 46 broader vehicle externalities 13 supply costs 11 and general consumer taxes 8 china was the biggest subsidizer in 2013 1 8 trillion followed by the united states 0 6 trillion and russia the european union and india each with about 0 3 trillion eliminating subsidies would have reduced global carbon emissions in 2013 by 21 and fossil fuel air pollution deaths 55 while raising revenue of 4 and social welfare by 2 2 of global gdp

how do crude oil prices co move a copula approach abstract this paper examines the dependence structure between crude oil benchmark prices using copulas by considering several copula models with different conditional dependence structures and time varying dependence parameters we find evidence of significant symmetric upper and lower tail dependence between crude oil prices these findings suggest that crude oil prices are linked with the same intensity during bull and bear markets thus supporting the hypothesis that the oil market is one great pool in contrast with the hypothesis that states that the oil market is regionalized our findings on crude oil price co movements also have implications for risk management hedging strategies and asset pricing

education across generations in south africa racially segregated education was a central pillar propping up the apartheid system in south africa the 1953 bantu education act centralized control of black education and linked tax receipts from black to public expenditure on their education in 1975 expenditure on the average white was more than 15 times larger than that on the average black student this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

electoral rules and minority representation in u s cities of minority representation majorities tend to disenfranchise minorities through strategic manipulation of electoral rules with the aim of explaining changes in electoral rules adopted by u s cities particularly in the south we show why majorities tend to adopt winner take all city wide rules at large elections in response to an increase in the size of the minority when the minority they are facing is relatively small in this case for the majority it is more effective to leverage on its sheer size instead of risking conceding representation to voters from minority elected districts however as the minority becomes larger closer to a fifty fifty split the possibility of losing the whole city induces the majority to prefer minority votes to be confined in minority packed districts single member district rules serve this purpose we show empirical results consistent with these implications of the model in a novel data set covering u s cities and towns from 1930 to 2000

public policies pressure groups and dead weight costs abstract this paper presents a model of competition among special interest groups for political influence each active group exerts pressure to affect its taxes and subsidies where activities of different groups are related by the equality between total tax collections and total tax subsidies the dead weight costs and benefits of taxes and subsidies play a major role in our model an increase in the dead weight cost of taxation encourages pressure by taxpayers while an increase in the dead weight costs of subsidies discourages pressure by recipients various applications of the analysis are discussed