pro environmental households and energy efficiency in spain the residential building sector is a major driver of current and future energy consumption and associated emissions which can be potentially mitigated through significant energy efficiency ee improvements in both emerging and developed countries yet there are several persistent barriers that hinder the attainment of ee improvements in this area using data from a 2008 national representative survey of spanish households this paper is interested in the determinants of ee related decisions in particular a discrete choice model empirically analyzes whether pro environmental households are more likely to invest in ee and to adopt daily energy saving habits we show that households with eco friendly behaviors are more likely to investment in well differentiated ee measures as well as to steer daily habits towards energy savings however no effects are found for households with environmental attitudes based on stated willingness to pay to protect the environment in addition to this households belonging to higher income groups and education levels are more likely to invest in ee but not to adopt energy saving habits while households with older members are less likely to invest in ee and show fewer eco friendly habits

household preferences of hybrid home heating systems a choice experiment application abstract the residential heating sector presents considerable energy savings potential as numerous heating solutions for reducing electricity consumption and utilizing renewable energy sources are available in the market the aim of this paper is to examine determinants of household heating system choices and to use this information for policy planning purposes this paper investigates residential homeowner attitudes regarding innovative hybrid home heating systems hhhs with choice experiment heating system scenarios are designed to represent the most relevant primary and supplementary heating alternatives currently available in finland the choice sets include six main heating alternatives district heat solid wood wood pellet electric storage heating ground heat pump and exhaust air heat pump that are described by five attributes supplementary heating systems investment costs operating costs comfort of use and environmental friendliness the results imply that hhhss generally appear to be accepted among households however several factors affect perceptions of these technologies the results reveal differing household attitudes toward the main heating alternatives and show that such views are affected by socio demographic characteristics age living environment education etc the results suggest that households view supplementary heating systems especially solar based favorably the other attributes studied also play a significant role in decision making

the continuing commodity crisis of developing countries abstract since the early 1980s the dominant feature of the international commodity markets has been a sharp downtrend in prices though short term instability has also remained excessively high for many commodities international policy should therefore be focused on supply management to raise depressed levels of commodity prices the problem of short term commodity price instability is best tackled by a series of international buffer stocks rather than by hedging on the financial markets a technique which has serious limitations for exporters in developing countries

concentration diversification and earnings instability some evidence on developing countries exports of manufactures and primary products policies aimed at diversification of the commodity composition of exports continue to be advocated as a means of reducing instability in ldcs export earnings the usual assumptions are that earnings from manufactures are more stable than earnings from primary products and that diversification will reduce the covariances between earnings from different pairs of products it is suggested here that for several reasons these assumptions may not be valid evidence is then presented which indicates that across a sample of countries diversification has taken place but has not been accompanied by relatively greater stability in manufactures and favourable changes in covariances

portfolio optimisation and the design of latin american export diversification policies this article applies portfolio optimisation analysis to assess the risk and return characteristics of commodity export structures of selected countries in latin america the analysis is conducted both for the export structure of traditionally exported commodities and for the non traditional agricultural commodities that are being promoted as part of recent export diversification efforts in these countries the results show that portfolio optimisation analysis can provide a valuable tool for the improvement of the risk return properties of various export structures

booming sector economic activity in paraguay 1973 86 a case of dutch disease the primary purpose of this study is to investigate the applicability of the dutch disease model as a means of explaining the changing sectoral composition of output for paraguay in the period 1973 86 the consequences of booming sector activity for 1 the distribution of income as it affects wages and 2 the in stability of export earnings for paraguay are examined the dutch disease model predicts that the consequences of booming activity will include a contraction of non booming sector activity as well as a real appreciation of the exchange rate these outcomes are tested in several single and multiple equation estimable models for the case of paraguay

commodity price instability and economic goal attainment in developing countries abstract this paper reviews the theoretical and empirical micro and macro foundations for the frequent claims that instabilities in international commodity markets have deleterious effects on goal attainment in primary commodity exporting developing countries this review leads to the conclusion that the available evidence does not support these claims the paper concludes with speculation on why such claims are so strong despite the lack of supporting evidence perhaps it is because of measurement problems and perhaps because of small but articulate groups with vested interests in overstating the problem

is there an energy efficiency gap many analysts have argued that energy efficiency investments offer an enormous win win opportunity to both reduce negative externalities and save money this overview paper presents a simple model of investment in energy using capital stock with two types of market failures first uninternalized externalities from energy consumption and second forces such as imperfect information that cause consumers and firms not to exploit privately profitable energy efficiency investments the model clarifies that only if the second type of market failure cannot be addressed directly through mechanisms such as information provision energy efficiency subsidies and standards may be merited this chapter therefore reviews the empirical work on the magnitude of profitable unexploited energy efficiency investments a literature which frequently does not meet modern standards for credibly estimating the net present value of energy cost savings and often leaves other benefits and costs unmeasured these problems notwithstanding recent empirical work in a variety of contexts implies that on average the magnitude of profitable unexploited investment opportunities is much smaller than engineering accounting studies suggest finally there is tremendous opportunity and need for policy relevant research that utilizes randomized controlled trials and quasi experimental techniques to estimate the returns to energy efficiency investments and the welfare effects of energy efficiency programs

export diversification through resource based industrialization the case of natural gas for small resource rich developing economies specialization in raw exports is usually considered to be detrimental to growth and resource based industrialization rbi is often advocated to promote export diversification this paper develops a new methodology to assess the performance of these rbi policies we first formulate an adapted mean variance portfolio model that explicitly takes into consideration i a technology based representation of the set of feasible export combinations and ii the cost structure of the resource processing industries second we provide a computationally tractable reformulation of the resulting mixed integer nonlinear optimization problem finally we present an application to the case of natural gas comparing current and efficient export oriented industrialization strategies of nine gas rich developing countries

custom hired tractor services and returns to scale in smallholder agriculture a production function approach historically agricultural transformation has often accompanied the increase in the returns to scale little direct evidence exists however on what actually causes such increase despite the knowledge of many factors that are associated with this increase we fill this knowledge gap by testing whether hiring in tractor services has raised returns to scale in agriculture at the household level in nepal terai that has undergone rapid growth in the tractor use through custom hiring services using switching regression and inverse probability weighted generalized method of moments we address two sources of endogeneity involved with the estimation of returns to scale 1 farmers self selection on whether to hire in tractor services and 2 use of inputs in the production function for both cobb douglas and translog production function specifications we find that hiring in tractor services significantly increased the returns to scale in agricultural production by about 0 2 0 3 among farm households not owning tractors for which suitable control groups are found findings are robust under various alternative specifications

heating technology and energy use a discrete continuous choice approach to norwegian household energy demand abstract the aim of this paper is to describe the structure of the household s energy demand as a discrete continuous choice and on this basis establish an econometric model suitable for the data available in the norwegian energy surveys the discrete appliance choice is specified as a multinomial logit model with a mixture of appliance attributes operating costs and individual characteristics income housing unit characteristics etc as explanatory variables in the next step the continuous choice of energy use is modelled conditional on the appliance choice the energy prices turn out to be significant both when estimating the appliance choice and the conditional energy demand the estimated price elasticity for energy exceeds minus unity the paper discusses how this relatively strong price response should be interpreted in the context of other econometric analysis with no explicit appliance dependence finally the significance of the many household characteristics at both stages of the model signals a high degree of heterogeneity within the households which justifies the use of detailed micro data in the modelling of the energy demand

willingness to pay for renewable energy primary and discretionary choice of british households for micro generation technologies this paper documents the policy context of renewable energy production in the european union the research adopts a choice experiment approach to investigate households wtp for these renewable energy technologies in the uk the micro generation technologies comprise solar photovoltaic micro wind solar thermal heat pumps and biomass boilers and pellet stoves the study compares the results from conditional and mixed logit models which estimate the distribution of utility coefficients and then derives wtp values as a ratio of the attribute coefficient to the price coefficient with a model in which the wtp distribution is estimated directly from utility in the money space the results suggest that whilst renewable energy adoption is significantly valued by households this value is not sufficiently large for the vast majority of households to cover the higher capital costs of micro generation energy technologies

the fifth credit tranche abstract this paper asserts that for all practical purposes the compensatory financing facility cff of the imf has been abolished except in the name by an imf decision of 14 september 1983 since cff was originally intended to finance temporary and reversible deficits resulting from export shortfalls due to factors beyond a country s control drawings were usually authorized within a month at low conditionality the 1983 decision does away with this semi automaticity thereby accommodating cff to the high conditional upper credit tranches this development is symptomatic of a general tendency to limit the fund to high conditional financing regardless of circumstances

dilemmas of export diversification in a developing economy mexican oil in the 1980s abstract small states usually find it very costly to implement strategies with the objective of reducing their dependence on great economic powers this essay seeks to explain the accomplishments and failures of mexico s efforts to diversify its foreign economic relations beyond the united states though mexican exports to the industrialized world have surged in the 1980s their excessive concentration on oil has skewed mexico s trade profile and stunted the growth of non oil industries moreover while exports of non oil products have expanded fourfold over the last decade they remain concentrated as well within the us market if protectionism in the latter continues to grow the slow but steady new orientation of mexican business toward foreign markets will prove more effective than the government s political security considerations of recent years in leading them to diversify mexico s profile of foreign economic relations beyond the united states

prices technology and farm size in this paper we construct and empirically test a theory of the agricultural firm which explains the long term growth in farm size in the united states typically the u s farm unit is a family enterprise consequently the ratio of the opportunity cost of farm labor to the price of machinery services determines the size of the farm operation by influencing the machine labor ratio applying the model to u s data we explain virtually all of the growth in the machine labor ratio and in farm size over the 1930 70 period by changes in relative factor prices without reference to technological change or economies of scale

geographic concentration and china s agricultural export instability this paper investigates the impacts of geographic concentration on china s agricultural export instability with a multiple region variance decomposition approach the decomposition results suggest that china s agricultural export concentration into the japanese market greatly lowers agricultural export instability while concentration into the hong kong south korea asean the us and russian federation markets increases export instability china s exports to the eu also lower its agricultural export instability further decomposition results indicate that the impacts of geographic concentration on different agricultural product export instabilities are different

export fluctuations and economic growth an empirical analysis abstract the uncertainty associated with trade variability is generally resumed to exert a significant effect on the domestic economy of loss developed countries inadequately equipped to cope with these fluctuations the belief that it has a negative influence on these economies has been for several decades the dominant hypothesis among economists but it has been challenged on both theoretical and empirical growths the present paper proposes to investigate this problem from an empirical point of view cross country analysis is developed to investigate the influence of export instability on the domestic economy of less advanced nations the results show that no clear conclusions for the general case can be provided since they are sensitive to the particular time period considered a negative impact can be expected when price and quantity instability appear to reinforce each other but this is not always the case

commodity concentration and export earnings instability a shift from cross section to time series analysis conventionally commodity concentration has been regarded as a major factor contributing to the short term instability in earnings experienced by developing countries the repeated and unexpected lack of correspondence between the conventional view and results of empirical studies has generated attempts to identify the limitations of the customary analytical framework this paper attempts to derive a more satisfactory alternative framework application of this alternative approach to export data for a sample of developing countries produces results which in contrast to the evidence of previous studies indicate the widespread existence of a statistically significant positive relationship between concentration and export instability

models of energy use putty putty versus putty clay energy use is inelastic in time series data but elastic in international cross section data two models of energy use reproduce these elasticities a putty putty model with adjustment costs developed by pindyck and rotemberg 1983 and a putty clay model in the pindyck rotemberg model capital and energy are highly complementary in both the short run and the long run in the putty clay model capital and energy are complementary in the short run but substitutable in the long run we highlight the differences in the cross section implications of the models by considering the effect of an energy tax on output in both models in the putty putty model an energy tax that doubles the price of energy leads to a fall in output in the long run of 33 in contrast the same tax in the putty clay model leads to a fall in output of only 5 3

gasoline prices fuel economy and the energy paradox abstract policymakers often assert that consumers undervalue future gasoline costs when they buy automobiles we test this by measuring whether relative prices of vehicles with different fuel economy ratings fully adjust to variation in gasoline prices vehicle prices move as if consumers are indifferent between 1 00 in discounted future gas cost and 0 76 in vehicle purchase price we show how corrections for endogenous market shares and utilization measurement error and different gasoline price forecasts affect the results we also provide unique evidence of sticky information vehicle markets respond to changes in gasoline prices with up to a six month delay

is there an energy paradox in fuel economy a note on the role of consumer heterogeneity and sorting bias abstract from the previous literature it can be found that consumers tend to undervalue discounted future energy costs in their purchase decisions for energy using durables we show that this finding could in part result from ignoring consumer heterogeneity in empirical analyses as opposed to true undervaluation

want export diversification educate the kids first this paper uses bayesian model averaging to uncover the true determinants of export diversification among 36 potential factors and thus 236 potential models using data from 2001 to 2010 our results reveal two strong predictors primary school enrollment 99 7 posterior inclusion probability in the true model raises export diversification whereas the share of natural resources in gross domestic product 98 6 lowers diversification levels the importance of basic education coverage offers policymakers an opening toward diversifying exports at least in the long run this result is robust to accounting for the endogeneity of income levels by applying an instrumental variable bma method jel c11 f1 f34 o1 o2 o11

climate change adaptation a study of fuel choice and consumption in the us energy sector abstract using cross sectional data this paper estimates a national energy model of fuel choice by both households and firms consumers in warmer locations rely relatively more heavily on electricity rather than natural gas oil and other fuels they also use more energy climate change will likely increase electricity consumption on cooling but reduce the use of other fuels for heating on net american energy expenditures will likely increase resulting in welfare damages that increase as temperatures rise for example if the us warms by 5 c by 2100 we predict annual welfare losses of 57 billion

export instability and economic growth in sub saharan africa empirical research on the relationship between export instability and economic growth in less developed countries ldcs has yielded mixed results while some researchers find a negative relationship between export instability and economic growth others find a positive relationship a third group of researchers finds no significant relationship between export instability and economic growth in ldcs 1 those who find a negative relationship between export instability and economic growth in ldcs stress the negative effect export instability has on the supply of output through the generation of uncertainty in long term planning as well as due to shortages of inputs at critical times during the production process those who find a positive relationship between export instability and economic growth argue that ldcs respond to export instability by reducing consumption this process if repeated over a period of time increases savings and hence the rate of investment those who find no significant relationship between export instability and economic growth argue that ldcs are able to anticipate the fluctuations in export earnings and plan for such fluctuations hence instability in export earnings has no appreciable effect on economic growth c moran investigates the relationships between domestic savings rate and economic growth rate on the one hand and export instability on the other in a sample of ldcs 2 he finds that export instability has no significant long run impact on either domestic savings rate or economic growth rate however over relatively short periods of time export instability has a negative and significant effect on both savings and economic growth rate the negative effect occurs when the negative effects of price and of quantity fluctuations reinforce each other on the other hand when the negative effect of price fluctuations is counterbalanced by the effects of quantity fluctuations export instabil

do consumers recognize the value of fuel economy evidence from used car prices and gasoline price fluctuations abstract debate about the appropriate design of energy policy hinges critically on whether consumers might undervalue energy efficiency due to myopia or some other manifestation of limited rationality we contribute to this debate by measuring consumers willingness to pay for fuel economy using a novel identification strategy and high quality microdata from wholesale used car auctions we leverage differences in future fuel costs across otherwise identical vehicles that have different current mileage and therefore different remaining lifetimes by seeing how price differences across high and low mileage vehicles of different fuel economies change in response to shocks to the price of gasoline we estimate the relationship between vehicle prices and future fuel costs our data suggest that used automobile prices move one for one with changes in present discounted future fuel costs which implies that consumers fully value fuel economy

distributional impacts of investment subsidies for residential energy technologies abstract this study analyses the distributional impacts of investment subsidies paid to households that install residential energy technologies based on renewable energy sources the subsidies covering a significant part of the total investment play a considerable role in households energy decisions depending on their design support measures may provide the most benefits to certain groups of society and thus may cause increasing inequality the potential distributional impacts of the investment subsidies are determined by the combination of technologies targeted and their costs household income support intensity subsidy design restrictions and the availability of additional measures this study examines the support system for residential renewable energy technologies in the lithuanian case by employing a microsimulation model this analysis of existing measures provides more general results and highlights the policy features that cause distributional impacts therefore the results are applicable in other countries as well the analysis shows that although the support is efficient from an energy point of view it provides the most benefits to households with higher income and thus increases inequality moreover the subsidies fail to reduce energy poverty due to the poorest households low capacity to invest to obtain a flatter distribution of benefits the design of support measures should consider the current situation of lower income households and affordability issues

what stopped the inflation unemployment or commodity prices the main object of this paper is to argue that most of the deceleration of inflation in the oecd countries in general including britain that took place between i980 and i982 should be attributed not to the direct impact of higher unemployment on the labour market but to the fall in commodity i e primary product prices from i980 to i982 following their very sharp rise accompanying the second oil shock between i978 and i980 this led to a dramatic turn round of about 50 60 in the prices of primary products imported into the oecd countries from the rest of the world and from other oecd countries which in turn can account for the deceleration of about 20 25 in the import prices for the average industrialised country and our econometric estimates show that the pace of wage inflation is closely correlated with import prices by contrast our estimates for a variety of model specifications and choice of data do not show statistically significant correlations between aggregate unemployment and wage inflation we have not attempted to establish statistically that the turn round in commodity prices was caused mainly by the strength and duration of the posti979 recession in the industrialised countries as a whole but like most commentators we assume that this is the case given this assumption therefore our results imply that the recession in the industrialised world did not as is widely believed slow down the inflation by acting directly on the labour market e g by crushing the unions or bringing a new breath of realism into wage negotiations instead it worked by inducing a collapse of commodity prices or in the case of oil inducing a slight fall by comparison with the preceding sharp rise insofar as our results are valid there are various obvious implications for some central topical economic debates first if there is no stable direct relationship between unemployment within any country and its own rate of wage inflation then there would be no nairu and no clearly identifiable phillips curve as some other investigators have found hence debates as to whether and how far individual economies have unemployment rates above or below their nairus and so on are irrelevant in the conclusions we summarise what seem to be the main policy implications for individual countries but secondly insofar as levels of demand in the industrialised countries taken as a whole influence commodity prices which feed back on wage inflation via

determinants of households space heating type a discrete choice analysis for german households abstract considering the increasing attention on efficient use of energy it becomes vitally important to understand the energy related behavior of households this article presents empirical evidence on the determinants of the space heating technology applied by a household three sets of variables are examined as potential influences building socio economic and regional characteristics to highlight both the differences and similarities the results are obtained from a sample of house owners and from a sample including all households the influence of socio economic factors is similar across these groups income is found to exert only a minor impact on the system choice dwelling features are significant in determining the heating type particularly in the sample including all households regional effects are important clear differences prevail between east and west germany

energy consumption for space heating a discrete continuous approach energy demand for space heating is estimated using a discrete continuous choice model which focuses on the relationship between the choice of heating equipment and energy consumption the model is estimated on norwegian micro data and the two stages of the model are estimated simultaneously the capital cost and the operating cost of the heating systems are both found to have a significant impact on the choice of heating system furthermore the results show that household characteristics are important variables in residential energy models energy price elasticities and income elasticities are also estimated

the intercountry agricultural production function and productivity differences among countries comment abstract kawagoe hayami and ruttan 1985 find using an intercountry agricultural production function that scale economies explain 15 of the difference in labour productivity between developed and less developed countries in this note their finding of large scale economies in developed countries is contrasted with the commoner finding of approximately constant returns to scale in studies using farm level data and is likened to other studies employing grouped data which also find large scale economies it is suggested that the latter finding may be due to statistical artefact arising from the grouped nature of the data

effects of tractor ownership on returns to scale in agriculture evidence from maize in ghana abstract agricultural transformation process around the world has often accompanied the rise in returns to scale rts while tractor ownership is often associated with greater rts in agriculture whether the tractor ownership actually causes such increase in rts has not been formally tested in the literature we bridge this knowledge gap using a unique survey data of tractor owning farm households in ghana we find that owning tractors significantly increases the rts in maize production on the households largest mono cropped plot and weakens inverse relationship between land productivity and farm size this is partly achieved through the rise in the rts in tillage production the amount of tillage conducted rather than the rts in maize production given a fixed amount of tillage produced these sets of evidence are obtained by addressing jointly the multiple sources of endogeneity of tractor ownership tractor values tillage production and other inputs used

portfolio models and planning for export diversification malawi tanzania and zimbabwe evidence is presented regarding strengths and limitations of portfolio approaches as applied to diversifying export earnings an empirical application using data from malawi tanzania and zimbabwe is used to demonstrate these strengths and limitations modifications of the typical portfolio approach to export diversification are presented these modifications help make the approach more plausible for use in developing countries the modified approach is shown to provide guidance to policymakers who seek simultaneously to increase export earnings and reduce their instability

the peasant in economic modernization peasants self employed tillers of soil whose farm production is based mainly on family labor as an integral part of household activities have been for thousands of years and still are today the majority of mankind their production mode represents a sharp contrast with the large internal organization of modern corporate firms characterized by a hierarchy of employees an apparently archaic style of peasant farming relative to modern corporate activities has often led to a presumption that the peasantry is a remnant of feudal society and bound to disappear as modernization proceeds as a corollary it has been argued that consolidation of peasants into large farm enterprises is desirable or necessary for promoting agricultural productivity growth consistent with modern economic development this perspective has been waning recently partly because of the disastrous experience of collective farming in former socialist economies as well as repeated failures in the attempt to develop large farms as both state and private enterprises in developing economies eicher and baker johnson and ruttan concurrently the high potential of peasants to achieve productivity growth has been recognized with the successful diffusion of modern high yielding varieties and related inputs the so called green revolution in asia yet pessimism about peasant agriculture persists and tends to distort the development strategy of the third world toward favoring large farm estates binswanger deininger and feder eicher and rukuni more ambiguous is the role of peasants in industrial and commercial development the traditional view from karl marx to w arthur

farm mechanization scale economies and polarization the japanese experience abstract whether economies of scale are the major factor underlying concentration of agricultural land in large farms has long been under debate the case study of japanese agriculture for the past three decades confirmed the tendency observed from international comparison that increasing returns in agricultural production emerge when economic development reaches a stage at which real wage rates begin to rise sharply it was found that the effect of scale economies was highly significant even though the intersectoral labor market effect was greater on land concentration the results imply that developing countries need not worry about mechanization to cause more unequal land distribution if factor markets are not unduly distorted

commodities in crisis an overview of the main issues abstract this introductory article provides a general review of some of the main issues facing the world commodity economy in the 1980s particularly those arising from the dramatic collapse in the foreign exchange earnings of developing countries from their exports of primary commodities the subject matter covered in this special issue of world development includes not only the more traditional concerns related to short term commodity market instability and longer term issues such as agricultural protectionism but also the relevance of the linkages between the commodity sector and the rest of the international economic system for the stability of the world economy as a whole this article covers more aspects of the commodity problem than can be considered in detail in the subsequent articles prepared for a single issue of this journal nonetheless the present introduction should make a contribution to identifying useful areas for further research as well as focusing on some of the options in the field of international commodity policy

the meta production function approach to technological change in world agriculture abstract an alternative meta production function for agriculture is estimated with the cross section data for 43 countries and three years 1960 1970 and 1980 constructed and used by kawagoe hayami and ruttan and hayami and ruttan in their studies by allowing for country specific efficiency factors and using a flexible functional form the transcendental logarithmic production function strikingly different results from those of kawagoe hayami and ruttan are obtained in particular it is found that elasticity of output with respect to machinery is variable and the degree of local returns to scale is not constant and increases with the usage of machinery

electricity prices and consumers long term technology choices evidence from heating investments abstract this paper studies consumers s sensitivity to energy costs at the moment of making a long term energy technology investment the analysis exploits local variation in regulated electricity distribution prices that are persistent over time and therefore a good measure of long term price expectations price impacts are estimated on extensive administrative registry data of private persons acting as home builders in finland during 2006 2011 the results show that electricity prices notably influence builders choices and that electricity tax increases have induced demand for technologies based on renewable energy the results on the comprehensive set of individual level characteristics reveal that technology choices vary systematically across households current dwelling status and the education level have the strongest influence on the choice probabilities price sensitivity is found to be lower for low income households and to vary by the current dwelling status and type of building location

tagging and targeting of energy efficiency subsidies corrective taxation is a common approach to addressing externalities internalities and other market distortions these distortions are often heterogeneous for example some cars pollute more than others and many people consume alcohol rationally even as present biased individuals might over consume such heterogeneity raises the question of whether a corrective tax is well targeted does it primarily affect individuals subject to relatively large distortions a tax set at the average level of the distortion could actually reduce welfare if the marginal individuals were already making relatively undistorted decisions this paper studies the targeting of corrective subsidies for energy ef cient durable goods such as air conditioners insulation and cars these subsidies are justi ed by multiple distortions primarily including environmental externalities credit constraints landlord tenant information asymmetries imperfect information and behavioral biases such as inattention to energy costs allcott and greenstone 2012 gillingham newell and palmer 2009 we rst argue that these distortions are heterogeneous on observables wealthy people are less credit constrained homeowners are unaffected by the landlord tenant problem and we show empirically that environmentalists are more attentive to energy costs and believe that energy ef cient goods save more money we then show that

a new look at the benefits of diversification lessons from central america recent trends of export diversification in central america may lower foreign exchange earnings instability there four countries costa rica el salvador honduras and guatemala are analysed across a twenty year period the paper uses united nations commodity trade statistics to explain why costa rica and honduras have enjoyed greater earnings stability in recent years despite the fact that honduras has not greatly diversified its export products and markets despite the growth of new agricultural and manufacturing goods traditional primary products still dominate the countries export portfolios specific products within each of the four broad product category groups contribute to the varied country outcomes summary statistics from the united nations panel data suggest newer agricultural exports have not stabilized guatemalan and salvadoran export earnings while honduras has enjoyed relatively stable banana export revenues and costa rica has benefited from the smooth flow of microelectronic product

individual time preferences and energy efficiency a large literature examines energy efficiency investments by consumers and firms partic ularly evaluation of the extent of and expla nations for an energy efficiency ee gap gerarden newell and stavins 2015 but prior studies have not considered the role of individ ual discount rates in such decisions instead most assessments assume a certain discount rate against which the rationality of observed choices is gauged allcott and wozny 2014 or alternatively estimate aggregate discount rates that best match observed ee decisions condi tional on an assumed decision model hausman 1979 the absence of evidence on the role of indi vidual discount rates is surprising because the profitability of ee investments depends fun damentally on the rate at which individuals discount future energy savings relative to the required upfront investment the potential importance of individual discount rates is further heightened by findings in experimental studies that elicited time preferences exhibit consider able heterogeneity frederick loewenstein and o donoghue 2002 this paper broadly examines the role of indi vidual discount rates in ee decisions our ear lier findings on information provision newell and siikamaki 2014 henceforth nsindicate that the efficacy of alternative labels in guiding cost efficient decisions depends critically on the discount rate used for analysis here we closely examine individual discount rates as a deter minant of the value households place on future energy savings our results demonstrate that individual dis count rates exhibit considerable heterogeneity

discounting cognition and financial awareness new evidence from a change in the military retirement system the choice given military personnel between an immediate cash payment of 30 000 or a more generous retirement pension permits us to estimate individuals personal discount rates pdrs the resulting pdrs about 7 for enlisted personnel and 2 4 3 for officers are precise and are correlated with a variety of other financial behaviors the pdr is negatively related to educational attainment and the armed forces qualification test but cognition seems to operate through channels other than being better informed better informed individuals were not always measured to be more patient jel d91 d14

the intercountry agricultural production function and productivity differences among countries abstract the sources of differences in labor productivity in agriculture between developed countries dc s and less developed countries ldc s are identified by estimating an aggregate agricultural production function based on cross county data for 1960 1970 and 1980 the production function was found to be stable over the entire period agriculture in the dc s was characterized by increasing returns and in the ldc s by constant returns to scale the results imply that unfavorable man land ratios do not represent an immediate barrier to rapid agricultural development in the low income ldc s but they may create a serious agricultural adjustment problem as those countries advance into the middle income range

export instability an alternative analysis of causes numerous studies into the causes of the export instability experienced by developing countries have failed to establish any significant relationships this paper suggests that the widely used technique of cross country regression analysis is inappropriate and that the typical explanatory variable set is inadequately specified accordingly analysis is shifted to a time series basis at the level of individual countries and explanatory variables are developed which correspond more closely to the supply and demand determinants of instability applying this alternative model to data for a sample of developing countries produces results which suggest that this approach has considerable explanatory power

north south interaction and commod control a simple model of north south interaction is presented with a keynesian north producing industrial goods and a classical south producing corn if the terms of trade clear the corn market then commodity price stabilisation can only slightly increase the average value of northern real consumption but if there is real wage resistance in the north then output deflation in the north is necessary to avoid inflationary pressure whenever the terms of trade tend to turn against the north commodity price stabilisation could in such circumstances greatly improve northern welfare the paper also examines whether fiscal policy in the north instead of commodity price stabilisation could provide equally large improvements in northern welfare

the role of commodity prices in economic recovery the economic model which in my view is most likely to highlight the central problems facing the world economy is the one which looks upon the economic activities of the world as consisting of two large complementary sectors one is the primary sector which supplies food raw materials and energy all of which depend upon man s powers to exploit for his own use the natural resources of the planet the other main sector is the so called secondary sector which consists of the production of finished goods out of the products of the primary sector in a simple approxlmatlon we could refer to these two sectors as agriculture and industry but not all primary products are agricultural there are all the minerals and forms of energy such as coal and oil which are the result of mining what is common to all of them is that they are landbased activities in the production of which natural resources or simply land to use the classical expression play an important role industry on the other hand is dependent of the flows of supplies of primary products for the conversion of which it requires increasing amounts of labor and capital however the availability of labor and capital for industrial purposes cannot really be regarded as an effective limitation in itself except for short periods the conversion capacity of the numerous industries of the world can be treated as given at any one moment as the heritage of the past but over longer periods it can be increased almost indefinitely since on a global scale there are no practical limits to the increased employment of labor whilst the accumulation of capital through additional investment is but a facet of the increase in industrial production and a more or less automatic consequence of the increase in demand for manufactured goods the classical economists adam smith and his followers were undoubtedly on the right track when they made their predictions on the assumption that while the law of increasing returns applies in industry because the productivity of labor depends on the division of labor and the latter in turn depends on the size of the market the law of diminishing returns applies in agriculture because the most favorable opportunities are exploited first and any further enlargement of production implies exploiting the less favorable or less adaptable resources of nature hence their underlying pessimism based on the existence of ultimate limits to primary production which must bring all economic growth sooner or later to an end yet nowhere were the predictions of economists so completely falsified as in the prophecy of malthus and ricardo that with the growth of world population more and more of the world s labor and capital resources would be required to be devoted to agriculture leaving less available for industry and services on the contrary the last two hundred years witnessed despite the enormous population explosion a spectacular diminution of the share of economic resources devoted to agriculture and mining there can be no guarantee that this favorable trend will continue that it was so completely unforeseen was due to the failure to recognize that land saving or natural resource saving technological progress was so much more important quantitatively than the labor saving technical progress in the manufacturing industries this account gives a partial view however since the world production of primary commodities has not grown as fast as would have been required to raise the living standards of the world population at the same rate as those of the industrially developed countries which comprise only one

international tourism and export instability export diversification has been suggested as a strategy for decreasing the level of export earnings instability which is experienced by many developing countries in recent years the international tourism sector has made an increasingly important contribution to the economies of many low income countries this article examines whether diversification into the non traditional tourism sector has succeeded in decreasing the instability of export earnings it was found that although tourism has the advantage of high growth rates and is a major source of foreign currency receipts earnings from international tourism did not bring about a significant decrease in the instability of export earnings of most of the developing and industrialised countries considered furthermore a net increase in the instability of earnings from tourism and merchandise exports occurred in a number of countries and may be a particular problem in small open developing economies

durable goods and long run electricity demand evidence from air conditioner purchase behavior i estimate a dynamic structural model of demand for air conditioners the most energy intensive home appliance in the us the model explores the links between demand for durable goods and expected changes in key attributes energy efficiency and price i incorporate expectations explicitly as a feature of the choice setting and use parameter estimates from the model to calculate durable good demand elasticities with respect to energy efficiency electricity price and price of the durable itself these estimates fill a large gap in the literature and also shed light on consumer behavior in this setting results indicate that consumers are forward looking and value the stream of future savings derived from energy efficiency

commodity price stabilisation macroeconomic impacts and policy options a macroeconometric simulation study is undertaken to evaluate the impact of commodity price stabilisation cps schemes for the export tree crop industry in papua new guinea the findings suggest that there is a negligible level of favourable macroeconomic impacts of cps contrary to the expectation cps adversely affects the stability of monetary and external sectors bop cps policy has failed to stabilise the macroeconomy the price stabilisation policies are no longer appropriate from the macroeconomic point of view technical change futures market and rural savings are the possible alternative policy options to manage the price risk

stochastic semi nonparametric frontier estimation of electricity distribution networks application of the stoned method in the finnish regulatory model abstract electricity distribution network is a prime example of a natural local monopoly in many countries electricity distribution is regulated by the government many regulators apply frontier estimation techniques such as data envelopment analysis dea or stochastic frontier analysis sfa as an integral part of their regulatory framework while more advanced methods that combine nonparametric frontier with stochastic error term are known in the literature in practice regulators continue to apply simplistic methods this paper reports the main results of the project commissioned by the finnish regulator for further development of the cost frontier estimation in their regulatory framework the key objectives of the project were to integrate a stochastic sfa style noise term to the nonparametric axiomatic dea style cost frontier and to take the heterogeneity of firms and their operating environments better into account to achieve these objectives a new method called stochastic nonparametric envelopment of data stoned was examined based on the insights and experiences gained in the empirical analysis using the real data of the regulated networks the finnish regulator adopted the stoned method in use from 2012 onwards

trends in the terms of trade of primary commodities 1900 1982 the controversy and its origins primary commodity markets have offered an opportunity for much economic debate on a number of key issues first secularly declining terms of trade of primary commodities are used to explain the widening gap between developing ldcs and developed countries dcs second they are regarded as a contributing factor to the creation of a structural condition of unequal exchange between a dominating industrial center and a dominated agrarian periphery and third they are thought to be a source of instability often causing financial vulnerability to foreign exchange equilibria and fragility to international market institutions

the rise and decline of rent seeking activity in the brazilian coffee sector lessons from the imposition and removal of coffee export quotas summary brazil the world s largest coffee exporter encouraged efforts in the 1960s to form the international coffee agreement ica which restricted total coffee exports via country export quotas the quotas led to significant domestic quota rents in producing countries this paper analyzes the effects of rent seeking in brazil the brazilian institute of coffee ibc which was responsible for coffee policy was the focus of rent seeking the paper models the policy instruments used by the ibc shows how rent seeking affected policy industry efficiency and the distribution of rents explains the causes and effects of ibc reforms in the late 1980s and draws lessons from the experience

food insecurity income inequality and the changing comparative advantage in world agriculture i would like to argue in this article that in the process of economic development in land poor countries in asia agriculture faces three distinctly different problems food insecurity sectoral income inequality and the declining food self sufficiency associated with the declining comparative advantage in agriculture at the high income stage massive imports of food grains to asia if they occur will aggravate the world food shortage which will have significant implications for the poverty incidence in the world i argue that in order to avoid such a tragedy asia should expand farm size to reduce labor cost by adopting large scale mechanization sub saharan africa should realize a green revolution in grain production and latin america should further expand its grain production capacity

a conceptual framework for analysis of primary commodity markets abstract the paper begins with a critique of the traditional neoclassical theory as a tool for analysing commodity markets and suggests that a viable theory needs to be developed from the concept of market power as expressed in the relative bargaining strengths of transnational corporations active in the commodity production and trade of developing countries and of the governments and business interests of host countries a discussion of the principal elements comprising relative bargaining strength divided into commodity specific country specific and international is followed by a brief consideration of alternative policy options for developing countries aimed at improving their share of the benefits from their commodity exports to developed countries

can africa industrialize by processing primary commodities the case of mozambican cashew nuts abstract industrialization strategies based on vertical diversification into processing of primary commodities have long been appealing to low income countries the performance of such strategies is mixed an aggregate level literature is divided on the advisability of low income countries processing commodities for export especially for countries relatively poor in human capital while this general literature usefully illuminates the policy debate over processing cashew nuts in mozambique commodity and country specific factors reveal the weaknesses of conducting debate at too aggregated a level it may be that the most significant constraints on processing industrialization are political rather than purely technical or economic

the statistical debate on the net barter terms of trade between primary commodities and manufactures a comment and some additional evidence i950 p s hypothesis according to this hypothesis the net barter terms of trade nbtt between primary products and manufactures have over the longrun exhibited a downward trend spraos presented a detailed and thorough analysis of both the adequacy of the various statistical series available to proxy the nbtt s behaviour over the long run and the wide range of conceptual including quality problems involved in such an exercise on the basis of his analysis spraos concluded that the balance of the evidence for the seventy year period ending with the outbreak of world war ii supported the p s hypothesis of a secular deterioration in the nbtt it should however be noted that the evidence also suggested that the particular series cho sen for analysis by prebisch i950 himself did appear to exaggerate possibly to a large extent the rate of deterioration however when the analysis was extended to include the post world war ii period spraos found that while the deteriorating tendency cannot be decisively refuted it is open to doubt when the record up to the i970s is taken into account i980 p i26 as we shall see in this paper closer scrutiny reveals a statistical problem with spraos s analysis and the purpose of this paper is to show that once appropriate action is taken to overcome this problem some quite strong evidence in support of the p s hypothesis emerges the paper is organised as follows section i briefly discusses spraos s methodology and section ii discusses an econometric issue arising from this analysis section iii presents our empirical evidence while section iv summarises the main findings of the paper

are consumers myopic evidence from new and used car purchases abstract we investigate whether car buyers are myopic about future fuel costs we estimate the effect of gasoline prices on short run equilibrium prices of cars of different fuel economies we then compare the implied changes in willingness to pay to the associated changes in expected future gasoline costs for cars of different fuel economies in order to calculate implicit discount rates using different assumptions about annual mileage survival rates and demand elasticities we calculate a range of implicit discount rates similar to the range of interest rates paid by car buyers who borrow we interpret this as showing little evidence of consumer myopia jel d12 h25 l11 l62 l71 l81

does feedback matter evidence from agricultural services abstract we design a field experiment to test whether eliciting feedback can affect demand for a service we randomly assign different feedback tools in the context of an agricultural service and track their impact on farmers demand we find large demand effects in the current and following agricultural seasons these demand effects spill over as non client farmers in the vicinity of treated groups are more likely to sign up announcing monitoring to trainers across treatment and control communities has little effect on trainers effort we conclude that increasing farmers control over the quality and content leads their higher demand for the service