representing the influence of multiple social interactions on monthly tourism participation behavior abstract based on japanese panel data derived from 12 monthly waves and 1253 questionnaires the study examines the impact of social interactions on tourism participation social interactions are classified into three types namely endogenous exogenous and correlated effects it is empirically confirmed that endogenous social effects have significant influences on tourism participation behavior for example it is found that interactions with people of the same income groups an example of endogenous social effects are generally significant across most months of the year however it is worth noting that endogenous social effects will be overestimated if the correlated social effect is not taken into account the results suggest that social multiplier effects can be discerned that have potential implications for promotion and management of tourism participation rates

analysis of policies to reduce oil consumption and greenhouse gas emissions from the us transportation sector abstract even as the us debates an economy wide co 2 cap and trade policy the transportation sector remains a significant oil security and climate change concern transportation alone consumes the majority of the us s imported oil and produces a third of total us greenhouse gas ghg emissions this study examines different sector specific policy scenarios for reducing ghg emissions and oil consumption in the us transportation sector under economy wide co 2 prices the 2009 version of the energy information administration s eia national energy modeling system nems a general equilibrium model of us energy markets enables quantitative estimates of the impact of economy wide co 2 prices and various transportation specific policy options we analyze fuel taxes continued increases in fuel economy standards and purchase tax credits for new vehicle purchases as well as the impacts of combining these policies all policy scenarios modeled fail to meet the obama administration s goal of reducing ghg emissions 14 below 2005 levels by 2020 purchase tax credits are expensive and ineffective at reducing emissions while the largest reductions in ghg emissions result from increasing the cost of driving thereby damping growth in vehicle miles traveled

are corruption and taxation really harmful to growth firm level evidence exploiting a unique data set containing information about the estimated bribe payments of ugandan firms the authors study the relationship between bribe payments taxes and firm growth in uganda for the period 1995 97 using industry location averages to circumvent the potential problem of endogeneity and to deal with issues of measurement error they find that both the rate of taxation and the rate of bribery are negatively correlated with firm growth for the full data set a one percentage point increase in the bribery rate is associated with three percentage point reduction in firm growth an effect about three times that of taxation moreover after excluding outliers the authors find that bribery has a much greater negative impact on growth and taxation a considerably smaller one this provides some validation of firm level theories of corruption which posit that corruption retards development even more than taxation does

demographic change tourism expenditure and life cycle behaviour abstract the paper explores how demographic changes in human populations may impact on tourism decision making of households over their life cycle by means of hurdle models the study focuses respectively on the decision to travel domestically or abroad and investigates if statistically significant differences exist as to the impact of age and cohort on the decision to travel and tourism expenditure using a vast dataset on italian household expenditures over the period 1997 2007 the empirical results show that demographic aspects do have a strong effect on the tourism behaviour of families and that cohort and age effects act differently on the decision of households to make a trip and on how much they spend on tourism age has a negative effect on the desire to travel but a positive effect on tourism expenditure on the other hand older cohorts are inclined to travel but they have a low propensity to spend on tourism relevant differences in income elasticity along the life cycle of households have also been found finally age and cohort aspects have a different effect on the decision as to whether to travel nationally or internationally

are chinese cities too small this paper models and estimates net urban agglomeration economies for cities economic models of cities postulate an inverted u shape of real income per worker against city employment where the inverted u shifts with industrial composition across the urban hierarchy of cities this relationship has never been estimated in part because of data requirements china has the necessary data and context we find that urban agglomeration benefits are high real incomes per worker rise sharply with increases in city size from a low level they level out nearer the peak and then decline very slowly past the peak we find that a large fraction of cities in china are undersized due to nationally imposed strong migration restrictions resulting in large income losses

inflation and growth stories short and tall this paper reviews the stories that economists tell about the growth effects of inflation informal accounts are common but there are few models that get to grips with the effects that are probably central partly as a result of this and partly as a result of many econometric problems much of the empirical evidence remains unconvincing the paper assesses the various contributions and suggests possible improvements

firm size and the nature of innovation within industries the case of process and product r d the effect of firm size on the allocation of r d effort between process and product innovation is examined it is hypothesized that relative to product innovations process innovations are less saleable in disembodied form and spawn less growth this implies that the returns to process r d will depend more on the firm s output at the time it conducts its r d than the returns to product r d incorporating this distinction in a simple model the authors derive and test predictions about how the fraction of r d devoted to process innovation varies with firm size within industries

the determinants of household vacation travel some empirical evidence 1981 the determinants of household vacation travel some empirical evidence applied economics vol 13 no 2 pp 225 234

dynamically estimating the distributional impacts of u s climate policy with nems a case study of the climate protection act of 2013 we present a new method that enables users of the federal government s flagship energy policy model nems to dynamically estimate the direct energy expenditure impacts of climate policy across u s household incomes and census regions our approach combines nems output with detailed household expenditure data from the consumer expenditure survey improving on static methods that assess policy impacts by assuming household energy demand remains unchanged under emissions pricing scenarios to illustrate our method we evaluate a recent carbon fee and dividend proposal introduced in the u s senate the climate protection act of 2013 s 332 our analysis indicates this bill if enacted would have cut co2 emissions from energy by 17 below 2005 levels by 2020 at a gross cost of less than 0 5 of gdp while offering rebates sufficient to offset increased direct energy expenditures for typical households making less than 120 000 per year and average households in all regions of the united states

comparison of integrated assessment models carbon price impacts on u s energy abstract integrated assessment models iams are increasingly used to evaluate carbon policy impacts on energy structure but different models can yield considerably different results this paper seeks to frame model results for policymakers and other consumers of model outputs in this analysis we compare three models gcam merge and eppa we apply diagnostic carbon price scenarios such as ramps and shocks to identify key differences in model behavior that drive inter model variability in projected policy impacts on the u s energy system we report model results using several economic parameterizations and find that variation in carbon emissions across models results primarily from differences in carbon intensity of energy supply these differences arise because models include different low carbon energy technology options and vary widely in how flexible the electricity supply sector is at adapting to a change in policy the timing of emissions abatement is also strongly influenced by whether the model is a simulation or an inter temporal optimization scheme and the amount of foresight exhibited in the model our analysis demonstrates the usefulness of novel iam diagnostic indicators and clarifies model features that are highly relevant for consumers of model results

end use technology choice in the national energy modeling system nems an analysis of the residential and commercial building sectors abstract the national energy modeling system nems is arguably the most influential energy model in the united states the u s energy information administration uses nems to generate the federal government s annual long term forecast of national energy consumption and to evaluate prospective federal energy policies nems is considered such a standard tool that other models are calibrated to its forecasts in both government and academic practice as a result nems has a significant influence over expert opinions of plausible energy futures nems is a massively detailed model whose inner workings despite its prominence receive relatively scant critical attention this paper analyzes how nems projects energy demand in the residential and commercial sectors in particular we focus on the role of consumers preferences and financial constraints investigating how consumers choose appliances and other end use technologies we identify conceptual issues in the approach the model takes to the same question across both sectors running the model with a range of consumer preferences we estimate the extent to which this issue impacts projected consumption relative to the baseline model forecast for final energy demand in the year 2035 in the residential sector the impact ranges from a decrease of 0 73 quads 6 0 to an increase of 0 24 quads 2 0 in the commercial sector the impact ranges from a decrease of 1 0 quads 9 0 to an increase of 0 99 quads 9 0

on the driving forces behind cyclical movements in employment and job reallocation theory restricts short run job creation and destruction responses and cumulative employment and job reallocation responses to allocative and aggregate shocks we formulate these restrictions and implement them for postwar data on u s manufacturing allocative shocks are the main driving force behind cyclical movements in job reallocation but their contribution to employment fluctuations varies greatly across alternative identification assumptions also the data compel one or both of the following inferences aggregate shocks greatly alter the shape and not just the mean of the cross sectional density of employment growth rates allocative shocks cause short run reductions in aggregate employment

income and the substitution pattern between domestic and international tourism demand this article analyses the role of income in the decision of participating in the tourism demand within 1 year the tourists who are participating can travel to domestic destinations only abroad destinations only or to both of them such a substitution pattern is modelled using a bivariate probit model the analysis is carried out to the regional level using a survey conducted in 15 european eu 15 countries in addition to the traditional socioeconomic variables the analysis adds new variables to the outbound tourism demand modelling such as the attributes of the place of residence the results show that tourism demand is income elastic however there are marked differences in the income elasticities of the probabilities of travelling domestically or abroad above certain income threshold the substitution pattern between destinations takes part the probability of travelling domestically only remains constant whereas the probability of travelling abroad keeps growing additionally the article prov

human capital and growth abstract this paper describes a growth model with the property that human capital accumulation can account for all observed growth the model is shown to be consistent with evidence on individual productivities as measured by census earnings data the central hypothesis is that we learn more when we interact with more productive people

holiday taking and income this paper is the first attempt to estimate the determinants of holiday taking across several countries to accomplish this a two stage estimation procedure is employed which enables incongruous income categories to be transformed into a single income variable it is found that in the mid 1980s there was a substantial similarity in the holiday taking behaviour of europeans the large national differences in holiday participation are explained by differences in income and demographic factors a remarkable regularity in the responsiveness of the probability of holiday taking to marginal changes in income is found

an econometric study of tourist arrivals in aruba and its implications abstract the principal purpose of this study is to analyze econometric estimates in order to explain tourist arrivals to aruba from the united states the netherlands and venezuela the study specified a dynamic econometric model for modeling short term as well as the long term responses it estimated both linear and log linear functions and it applied the box cox statistical method to determine the appropriate functional form the inclusion of venezuela as a developing country permitted the comparison of the behavior of tourism demand in relatively rich and poor countries the results indicated the extent to which cross country behavior of demand differs with respect to changes in effective prices and exchange rates this study can assist in the formulation of future macroeconomic policies as well as market and pricing strategies in a small or microstate economy

understanding tourists economizing strategies during the global economic crisis abstract this paper explores how tourists from 165 regions of eu 27 countries cut back their tourism expenditure during the global economic crisis in 2009 cutbacks in tourism expenditure are divided into two mutually related decisions firstly whether or not the tourists decided to cut back on tourism expenditure because of the crisis and second which of six options they employed as their cut back strategy fewer holidays reduced length of stay cheaper means of transport cheaper accommodation travel closer to home or change the period of travel the econometric model used to address these kinds of simultaneous decisions is an adaptation of the heckman model within a generalized structural equations modelling approach this methodology controls for sample selection bias and correlations between equations this paper highlights patterns in cutback decisions that are associated with the socioeconomic characteristics of the household and the climate in the country of origin

business environment economic agglomeration and job creation around the world based on a comprehensive worldwide firm survey this paper looks at how the business environment and economic agglomeration affect job creation holding constant conventional determinants of firm growth such as firm ownership size and age the analysis finds that economic agglomeration is most important especially modern telecommunications access to export markets concentration of economic activity in large cities and capacity agglomeration the concentration of large firms in a city although the business environment affects job growth less than agglomeration does some elements of the business environment matter such as labor flexibility unionization and local skill levels there is strong heterogeneity in job creation across firm size and age

tourism participation and expenditure by spanish households the effects of the economic crisis and unemployment abstract this paper examines household tourism participation decisions and tourism expenditure across the business cycle microdata is used from the spanish household budget survey for the years 2006 2010 facilitating an analysis of the consequences of the economic crisis and unemployment on tourism consumption decisions by households by estimating a heckman model the effects of households socioeconomic determinants on participation and expenditure decisions can be identified taking the year 2008 the beginning of the crisis as a reference the stability of the tourism expenditure model is tested identifying variables whose effects alter in times of crisis one important aspect of the study is how household unemployment affects tourism participation and expenditure decisions the effect of unemployment takes into account whether it is the main breadwinner his or her spouse or another member of the household who is unemployed concentrating on those households whose main breadwinner was employed at the time an analysis is also made of how job insecurity affects tourism consumption decisions from the results the unemployment variables can be seen to have a significant explanatory power suggesting that unemployment information does help to explain the evolution of tourism expenditure across the business cycle

an analysis of households appraisal of their budget constraints for potential participation in tourism abstract this paper examines the importance of households budget constraints as a barrier to participation in tourism for this purpose a sample of spanish households drawn from the european community household panel was analysed this survey gathers data on the economic and socio demographic situation of all adult household members more specifically it includes a question on each household s capacity to afford a week s yearly holiday the aim of this question is to assess whether households have sufficient financial resources to participate in tourism the results of the analysis demonstrate that budget constraints on tourist travel are binding for a significant percentage of spanish households the results also show that this type of constraint is not only conditioned by the level of income but by a more complex appraisal that also includes other financial variables such as households saving capacity or the unemployment status of its members furthermore non financial variables such as the level of education age and barriers associated with poor health status all help to determine the degree of importance with which households perceive their budget constraints

estimating bounds on the economy wide effects of the cef policy scenarios abstract the scenarios for a clean energy future study relied primarily on bottom up technology based methods to estimate costs associated with its scenarios these methods however do not allow for calculation of economy wide or general equilibrium effects of the policies considered we propose and apply a means of combining the bottom up estimates with estimates of the costs associated with a carbon charge obtained from computable general equilibrium models our approach is based on the concept of production inefficiency the economy lies within its production frontier with respect to the provision of energy services the cef technology policies are interpreted as moving the economy toward its frontier as well as moving the frontier outward while the carbon charge induces a substitution effect along the frontier this perspective allows a synthesis of the two sets of calculations

a micro econometric analysis of vacation behaviour we present a micro econometric limited dependent variable model which simultaneously explains the decision whether to go on vacation or not the choice of destination and the decision on the level of the vacation expenditures the model has been estimated on the basis of a cross section of dutch households we find a striking difference in income elasticity between domestic vacations and vacations abroad and a large impact of owning certain durables such as a boat on the choice of destination to illustrate the potential of the model some simulations are performed

the potential impacts of climate change policy on freshwater use in thermoelectric power generation climate change policy involving a price on carbon would change the mix of power plants and the amount of water they withdraw and consume to generate electricity we analyze what these changes could entail for electricity generation in the united states under four climate policy scenarios that involve different costs for emitting co2 and different technology options for reducing emissions out to the year 2030 the potential impacts of the scenarios on the u s electric system are modeled using a modified version of the u s national energy modeling system and water use factors for thermoelectric power plants derived from electric utility data compiled by the u s energy information administration under all the climate policy scenarios freshwater withdrawals decline 2 14 relative to a business as usual bau scenario of no u s climate policy furthermore water use decreases as the price on co2 under the climate policies increases at relatively high carbon prices 50 tonne co2 however retrofitting coal plants to capture co2 increases freshwater consumption compared to bau in 2030 our analysis suggests that climate policies and a carbon price will reduce both electricity generation and freshwater withdrawals compared to bau unless a substantial number of coal plants are retrofitted to capture co2

an econometric study of tourism demand the aids model of us and european tourism in mediterranean countries the almost ideal demand system aids model was used to estimate tourism expenditure allocation by us and west european countries among a range of mediterranean destinations the approach has the advantage of an explicit basis in consumer expenditure theory and by modelling the changes in the budget shares of expenditure among destinations provides new information relative to that provided by the traditional single equation approach the estimated model was econometrically satisfactory although symmetry and homogeneity were rejected in line with the findings of past studies of consumer demand the expenditure elasticities demonstrated considerable differences in tourism demand preferences between origin countries and between traditional and newly developing destinations the own and cross price elasticities indicated the importance of effective prices in determining the allocation of expenditure among destinations

climate in the region of origin and destination choice in outbound tourism demand abstract this paper describes the relationship between regional climate in the home area and the choice of taking holidays in the region of origin or abroad this decision is simultaneously estimated with a bivariate probit model the study combines the socioeconomic characteristics of european households with information on the region of residence such as climate which is defined according to a new annualized climate index the estimated probabilities are analysed using gis and nonparametric techniques the results of modelling support the hypothesis that the climate in the region of residence is a strong determinant of holiday destination choice they show that residents in regions with better climate indices have a higher probability of travelling domestically and a lower probability of travelling abroad

the job generation impacts of expanding industrial cogeneration sustainable economic development requires the efficient production and use of energy combined heat and power chp offers a promising technological approach to achieving both goals while a recent u s executive order set a national goal of 40 gw of new industrial chp by 2020 the deployment of chp is challenged by financial regulatory and workforce barriers discrepancies between private and public interests can be minimized by policies promoting energy based economic development in this context a great deal of rhetoric has addressed the ambiguous goal of growing green jobs our research provides a systematic evaluation of the job impacts of an investment tax credit that would subsidize industrial chp deployment we introduce a hybrid analysis approach combining simulations using the national energy modeling system with input output modeling nems simulates general equilibrium effects including supply and demand side resources we identify first order employment impacts by creating bill of goods expenditures for the installation and operation of industrial chp systems second order impacts are then estimated based on the redirection of energy bill savings accruing to consumers these include jobs across the economy created by the lower electricity prices that would result from increased reliance on energy efficient chp systems on a jobs per gwh basis we find that the second order impacts are approximately twice as large as the first order impacts

financial development and economic growth views and agenda this critique argues that the preponderance of theoretical reasoning and empirical evidence suggests a positive first order relationship between financial development and economic growth the body of work would push even most skeptics toward the belief that the development of financial markets and institutions is a critical and inextricable part of the growth process and away from the view that the financial system is an inconsequential sideshow responding passively to economic growth many gaps remain however and the paper highlights areas in acute need of additional research

an evaluation of errors in us energy forecasts 1982 2003 planners policy makers and the private sector rely on energy forecasts to help make policy and investment decisions in the us the federal department of energy through the energy information administration and its predecessors has conducted national forecasts of energy production and consumption for decades this paper explores us energy forecasts in order to uncover potential systemic errors in us forecasting models we apply an error decomposition technique to forecasts within each major energy sector commercial industrial residential and transportation made during the period 1982 to 2003 we find that low errors for total energy consumption are concealing much larger sectoral errors that cancel each other out when aggregated for example 5 year forecasts made between 1982 and 1998 demonstrate a mean percentage error for total energy consumption of 0 1 yet this hides the fact that the industrial sector was overestimated by an average of 5 9 and the transportation sector was underestimated by an average of 4 5 we also find no evidence that forecasts within each sector have improved over the two decades studied here