renewable energy non renewable energy and economic growth in brazil this study employs brazil s yearly statistics from 1980 to 2010 to explore the causal relationships between the real gdp and four types of energy consumption non hydroelectric renewable energy consumption nhrec total renewable energy consumption trec non renewable energy consumption nrec and the total primary energy consumption tec the cointegration test reveals a long run equilibrium among brazil s real gdp labour capital and each of the four types of consumption the development of the brazilian economy has close ties with capital formation and labour force the influence of nhrec trec on real output is positive and significant while the impacts by nrec tec are insignificant the results from the vector error correction models reveal a unidirectional causality from nhrec to economic growth a bidirectional causality between economic growth and trec and a unidirectional causality from economic growth to nrec or tec without feedback in the long run these findings suggest that brazil is an energy independent economy and that economic growth is crucial in providing the necessary resources for sustainable development expanding renewable energy would not only enhance brazil s economic growth and curb the deterioration of the environment but also create an opportunity for a leadership role in the international system and improve brazil s competition with more developed countries

modeling the global relationships among economic growth energy consumption and co2 emissions abstract the relationships among economic growth energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions needs to be paid attention since the characteristics of global warming is from economy and greenhouse gas emissions this study employs a panel cointegration and vector error correction model to discuss the dynamic economy energy environment nexus for 188 countries for the periods of 1993 2010 the empirical results indicate that there exist long run relationships between economic growth energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions for all countries it is worth noting that energy consumption negatively affects gdp in the world as a whole and developing countries but not in developed countries and the unidirectional causality from energy consumption to carbon dioxide emissions exists both on developing and developed countries that means the developed countries should take more responsibility on the energy efficiency and mitigating greenhouse gas emissions ghge on other hand environmental regulations related to the prevention of environmental degradation as the economy grows need to be adopted by all countries

reverification of the resource curse hypothesis based on industrial agglomeration evidence from china abstract although the resource curse hypothesis has been supported by many empirical studies focusing on the transnational and regional levels there has always been a point of contention about the proper method of estimating and selecting natural resource indicators in literature this paper proposes a mixed estimation method for panel data of 10 typical oil and gas resource based cities in china from 1998 to 2015 the results show that resource industry agglomeration can mirror the distribution and dependence on the resource industry by location rather than by merely measuring the influence of the relative scale of resource extraction on economic growth using resource industry agglomeration as the main explanatory variable for regional economic growth verifies the resource curse hypothesis and shows the nonlinear characteristics of the negative correlation between resources and economic growth despite mostly similar indicator parameter estimates marked differences exist in measured effects for material capital investments and technological innovation investments the result of using resource industry agglomeration as the main explanatory variable is basically consistent with the economic theory and is more in line with observed reality than the alternative indicator the research conclusions can provide evidence and data for index selection in the studies on the mediating effect of resource curse transmission and international comparison

material substitution and path dependence empirical evidence on the substitution of copper for aluminum abstract adopting an evolutionary perspective this paper argues that path dependence plays a major role in material use and substitution such that it might delay or even prevent substitution despite the occurrence of significant relative price changes after elucidating the importance of material substitution from an ecological economic point of view and after explaining the meaning of path dependence from an evolutionary perspective the copper aluminum material substitution process is described for the main electrical conductor producing countries the us germany and japan this example makes clear that irrespective of attractive relative prices in favor of aluminum it could neither achieve a predominant market position nor is it possible to identify an explicit relation between relative price changes and relative material use in a qualitative analysis applying a distributed lag model for data on copper and aluminum for electrical applications the significance of relative prices and path dependence is examined for a 51 year time period for the us japan and germany the results indicate that path dependence and relative prices especially in the long run are both important factors influencing the copper aluminum substitution process the major conclusions read that substitution processes cannot be predicted by relative price movements alone and that price instruments to encourage material substitution should not be overestimated instead in the design of resource policies it should be considered that material substitution is an evolutionary and path dependent process which requires learning as well as time capital research and experience

energy consumption and economic growth new insights into the cointegration relationship abstract this paper examines the long run relationship between energy consumption and real gdp including energy prices for 25 oecd countries from 1981 to 2007 the distinction between common factors and idiosyncratic components using principal component analysis allows to distinguish between developments on an international and a national level as drivers of the long run relationship indeed cointegration between the common components of the underlying variables indicates that international developments dominate the long run relationship between energy consumption and real gdp furthermore the results suggest that energy consumption is price inelastic causality tests indicate the presence of a bi directional causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth

the causality relationship between energy consumption and gdp in g 11 countries revisited abstract this paper explores whether energy conservation policies can be implemented in countries with the same level of development that is is restraining energy consumption without compromising economic growth feasible in all industrialized countries a new granger non causality testing procedure developed by toda and yamamoto 1995 journal of econometrics 66 225 250 is applied to re investigate the relationship if any between energy consumption and income in 11 major industrialized countries the results clearly do not support the view that energy consumption and income are neutral with respect to each other except in the case of the united kingdom germany and sweden where a neutral relationship is found bi directional causality in the united states and uni directional running from energy consumption to gdp in canada belgium the netherlands and switzerland are found this indicates that energy conservation may hinder economic growth in the latter five countries further the causality relationship appears to be uni directional but reversed for france italy and japan which implies that in these three countries energy conservation may be viable without being detrimental to economic growth

thermodynamic constraints on optimal depletion of copper and aluminum in the united states a dynamic model of substitution and technical change abstract the paper proposes a methodology to integrate concepts from thermodynamics into economic models of optimal natural resource use and to empirically determine relationships between changes in thermodynamic states of materials and the use of high quality energy sources the integration is aimed at an assessment of technologies substitution and technical change based on economic concepts that do justice to fundamental physical constraints a model of natural resource use and production has been developed that combines econometric time series analysis with dynamic modeling techniques the model explicitly includes thermodynamic constraints on i the process of separating minerals from crude ore ii smelting processes iii substitution among inputs and iv endogenous technical change in mining smelting and refining based on empirical information the model has been simulated to assess outer limits of feasible resource savings in copper and bauxite mining smelting and refining in the united states conclusions are drawn for the evaluation of products and effluents from mining smelting and refining operations with regard to changes in the physical resource base and environmental quality

decoupling economic growth from carbon dioxide emissions in china a sectoral factor decomposition analysis china is facing the dilemma of how to coordinate economic development and carbon dioxide co2 emissions reduction this paper investigates the decoupling effect of economic growth from co2 emissions in china during the period 1992 2012 using the logarithmic mean divisia index lmdi method we decompose the driving forces of the decoupling of economic growth from co2 emissions in china s five major economic sectors into several factors and measure the contribution of each factor to the decoupling of china s overall economy from co2 emissions the results show that china performed the weak decoupling of economic growth from co2 emissions during 1992 2012 and so did all its five major sectors such a state did not occur smoothly and presented five different stages energy intensity and economic activity level were the most important factors affecting the decoupling in china energy intensity decreased in all sectors indicating a large acceleration for the sectoral decoupling states this finding is applicable to process carbon intensity in industrial sector and energy emission factor in agricultural industrial construction and service sectors in terms of sectoral effects on the decoupling in china industrial sector played a dominant role while construction sector had the most marginal influence the economic activity level and economic share of industrial sector exerted the most negative effects on the decoupling the energy intensity of industrial sector played a key role in promoting the national decoupling state while the energy emission factor of agricultural sector contributed the least

the effects of general price controls in the united states during world war ii this paper estimates a general equilibrium model of suppressed inflation using quarterly u s data for the sample period 1942 iv 48 ii it finds that the pricelevel was reduced by at least 30 4 percent and that this suppression of inflation reduced employment by at least 11 7 percent and output by at least 7 1 percent it also finds that monetary policy could have been equally successful in combating inflation but would not have had the side effect of reducing employment and output

an investigation of co integration and causality between energy consumption and economic activity in taiwan applying hsiao a version of the granger causality method this paper examines the causality between energy and gnp and energy and employment by applying recently developed techniques of co integration and hsiao s version of the granger causality to taiwanese data for the 1955 1993 period the phillips perron tests reveal that the series with the exception of gnp are not stationary and therefore differencing is performed to secure stationarity the study finds causality running from gdp to energy consumption without feedback in taiwan it is also found that causality runs from gdp to energy but not vice versa

an empirical analysis of a regional dutch disease the case of canada while there has been extensive research on the dutch disease dd very little attention if any has been devoted to the regional mechanisms through which it may manifest itself this is the first empirical attempt to research a regional dd by looking at the local and spatial impacts of resource windfalls across canadian provinces and territories we construct a new panel dataset to examine separately the key dd channels namely the spending effect and the resource movement effect our analysis reveals that the standard dd mechanisms are also relevant at the regional level specifically we find that a resource windfalls are associated with higher inflation and a labour capital shift from to non primary tradable sectors b resource windfalls in neighbouring regions are associated with a capital labour shift from to non primary tradable sectors in the source region c the spatial dd explains 51 20 of the adverse effects of resource windfalls in neighbouring regions on region specific non mineral international exports in the source region and does not significantly affect domestic ones

the impact of institutional quality on economic growth and carbon emissions evidence from indonesia south korea and thailand abstract the main purpose of this paper is to explore the impact of institutional quality on growth emissions nexus in a panel of three east asian countries over the period from 1990 to 2016 we also incorporated energy consumption and trade openness as important indicators in the model to avoid variable bias the results of unit root tests show that the variables are stationary at first difference the panel cointegration test confirmed that all the variables are cointegrated we employed fully modified ordinary least squares and dynamic ordinary least squares methods to estimate the long run effects of explanatory variables on economic growth the main findings are i a positive significant interaction variable between carbon emission and institutional quality indicates that efficient and impartial domestic institutions are very important to increase economic growth and decrease carbon emissions simultaneously ii institutional quality energy use and trade openness stimulate economic growth iii the vecm granger causality test results show that there is a one way causality runs from institutional quality to economic growth carbon emission and energy consumption from trade openness to carbon emissions in both short run and long run from energy use to trade openness from energy use to carbon emission in both short run and long run moreover feedback effect is present between economic growth and carbon emission and between economic growth and energy use in both short run and long run it is therefore necessary to regulate and strengthen the role and effectiveness of local institutions with the aim of lowering carbon emissions in the course of economic development

decomposition analysis of co2 emissions from electricity generation in china abstract electricity generation in china mainly depends on coal and its products which has led to the increase in co2 emissions this paper intends to analyze the current status of co2 emissions from electricity generation in china during the period 1991 2009 and apply the logarithmic mean divisia index lmdi technique to find the nature of the factors influencing the changes in co2 emissions the main results as follows 1 co2 emission from electricity generation has increased from 530 96 mt in 1991 to 2393 02 mt in 2009 following an annual growth rate of 8 72 coal products is the main fuel type for thermal power generation which accounts for more than 90 co2 emissions from electricity generation 2 this paper also presents co2 emissions factor of electricity consumption which help calculate co2 emission from final electricity consumption 3 in china the economic activity effect is the most important contributor to increase co2 emissions from electricity generation but the electricity generation efficiency effect plays the dominant role in decreasing co2 emissions

is decoupling economic growth from fuel consumption possible in developing countries a comparison of china and india abstract a better understanding the coupling decoupling of economic growth from energy demand in china and india can serve both countries and other developing countries to achieve the goal of gaining higher economic growth with less energy demand to demonstrate the relationship between coupling decoupling economy and energy in china and india better this work has made following contributions i analyzes the decoupling elasticity between economic growth and energy consumption by using the tapio model ii explores the five key effects labor input investment energy structure energy intensity technology level of decoupling elasticity by combining the cobb douglas c d function and log mean divisia index lmdi method and iii evaluates the decoupling efforts by applying decoupling efforts model in china and india between 1990 and 2015 the decoupling elasticity results show china s decoupling elasticity curve is in an inverted u shaped trend and the decoupling elastic value is concentrated between 0 and 0 8 in most years showing a weak decoupling state furthermore the decoupling state is strong decoupling during 2014 2015 indicating china has initially achieved the decoupling of economy and energy consumption while india s decoupling elasticity presents irregular fluctuations indicating that india s decoupling status is not very satisfactory the decomposition results uncover that major effects of decoupling in china and india are similar i e the investment effect is the biggest driver which contributed to a cumulative increasing impact in energy consumption in china and india by 3017 10 million tonnes oil equivalent and 675 18 million tonnes oil equivalent respectively whereas the energy intensity effect is the greatest inhibiting factor which contributed to a cumulative reduction in energy consumption in china and india by 1437 81 million tonnes oil equivalent and 139 21 million tonnes oil equivalent the decoupling efforts results show decoupling effort in china is better than that in india improving energy efficiency is the leading contributor to china s decoupling efforts while advancing technology is the major contributor to india s decoupling effort

material flows and economic models an analytical comparison of sfa lca and partial equilibrium models abstract the growing concern for environmental problems in the current economy has spurred the study of the way materials and substances flow through the economy resulting in many different types of analysis since all of these have their merits and shortcomings much of the present theoretical research seems to be focusing on combining the best aspects of each model type into an integrated model the aim of this paper is to make a first step in bridging the gap between the various types of analysis of material flows in the economy by discussing the main differences and similarities of three often employed model types substance flow analysis life cycle assessment and partial economic equilibrium analysis instead of submitting each model to a lengthy theoretical discussion we apply them to a single hypothetical example of a pollution problem by doing so we are able to evaluate the differences and similarities of the methods and results of the model in a practical way it appears that the results of the three models are complementary rather than contradictory each of them puts an emphasis on different aspects of the real world a sequential application of a number of limited models may therefore be an approach that provides more useful information than the tedious construction and application of an encompassing model that integrates these models

comparing structural decomposition analysis and index to analyze and understand historical changes in economic environmental employment or other socio economic indicators it is useful to assess the driving forces or determinants that underlie these changes two techniques for decomposing indicator changes at the sector level are structural decomposition analysis sda and index decomposition analysis ida for example sda and ida have been used to analyze changes in indicators such as energy use co2 emissions labor demand and value added the changes in these variables are decomposed into determinants such as technological demand and structural effects sda uses information from input output tables while ida uses aggregate data at the sector level the two methods have developed quite independently which has resulted in each method being characterized by specific unique techniques and approaches this paper has three aims first the similarities and differences between the two approaches are summarized second the possibility of transferring specific techniques and indices is explored finally a numerical example is used to illustrate differences between the two approaches

environmental poverty a decomposed environmental kuznets curve and alternatives sustainability lessons from china abstract amid increasing recognition of the importance of the environmental factor in understanding poverty and development this article coins the term environmental poverty to refer to the lack of the healthy environment needed for society s survival and development as a direct result of human induced environmental degradation a decomposed environmental kuznets curve ekc demonstrates that places such as countries counties or cities following the grow first clean up later approach or the first half of the ekc may obtain economic gains accompanied by extreme environmental sacrifice excessive social injustice and income and environmental inequalities the same place may include communities whose curves differ in shape some communities may prosper at the expense of other communities which may fall into environmental poverty and eventually irreversible environmental degradation and economic failure places following alternatives or flat ekcs may be slow in getting out of economic poverty but enjoy a healthier environment equality in income and environmental quality and social justice countries especially developing countries should aspire to sustainable alternatives

facing the truth about separability nothing works without energy abstract separability is a pivotal theoretical and empirical concept in production theory while the standard definition of separability is primarily motivated by the desire to conceptualize production decisions as a sequential process the principal purpose of an appropriate concept of separability in empirical work is to justify the omission of variables for which data are either of poor quality or unavailable this paper demonstrates that this empirical concept needs to be more restrictive than the classical notion of separability is therefore we suggest a novel definition of separability based on cross price elasticities that has clear empirical content because there is ample empirical reason to even doubt the assumption that energy is separable from all other production factors in the relatively mild form of classical separability energy seems to be an indispensable production factor under separability aspects

decomposing the change of co2 emissions a joint production theoretical approach this paper presents an alternative decomposition method to explore the driving forces of change in carbon emissions by using distance functions estimated by data envelopment analysis the proposed approach can isolate the effects of changes in gdp composition and energy supply composition on the change of carbon emissions in addition it is capable of identifying the effects of changes in different input ratios which may be very important if there are substitution effects among different inputs moreover the proposed model can measure the effects of changes in good and bad output technical efficiencies consequently this decomposition technique allows a change of carbon emissions to be decomposed into contributions from ten factors which provides more insights for policy makers we apply this model to decompose carbon emissions in 25 oecd counties and china for the sample countries as a whole the empirical results indicate that the economic growth is the crucial driver to carbon emissions increase while the changes in gdp composition and capital energy ratio are two main drivers to carbon emissions reduction in particular we discuss in detail the driving forces of china s carbon emissions change in order to propose some valuable policy implications for china from an international perspective

evaluation of china s electric energy efficiency under environmental constraints a dea cross efficiency model based on game relationship abstract the traditional data envelopment analysis dea model ignores the cooperation relationship among decision making units dmus so it is difficult to evaluate the dmus efficiency reasonably in this study we use a cross efficiency model considering the game relationship of dmus to evaluate and analyze the provincial electric energy efficiency of china the power industry panel data of china s 30 provinces from 2005 to 2014 are used to evaluate the energy efficiency of china s provincial power industry under environmental constraints in addition based on the obtained values of electric energy efficiency clustering analysis is implemented and the regional similarity in electric energy efficiency is analyzed the results indicate that in the past decade china s provincial electric energy efficiency has not significantly improved and efficiency values have a certain degree of volatility especially in western china in general the electric energy efficiency of eastern china is significantly higher than central and western china the clustering analysis further demonstrates that there is no polarization phenomenon in china s electric energy efficiency in recent years the electric energy efficiency of western china has been greatly improved with significant volatility it reveals that the electric energy efficiency of western china is sensitive to the environment the implementation of energy policies should be adapted to local conditions in the process of formulating policies for improving electric energy efficiency the provincial government should improve the regional opening up layout and establish effective coordination mechanisms among different regions

dynamic substance flow analysis the delaying mechanism of stocks with the case of pvc in sweden abstract today s stocks are tomorrow s emissions and waste flows as a result of the time lag introduced by the buffering function of the stock of materials and products in society environmental problem flows which seem to be under control can easily rebound in this paper an example is given of how signal processing can be used in dynamic substance flow analysis for estimating the future generation of waste and emissions from present societal stocks an approach is outlined to estimate the outflow of waste products from stocks on the basis of assumptions on the shape of the distribution describing the inflow of new products the average life span of the products and the life span distribution to exemplify the approach we used a theoretical case of pvc in sweden it was found that the delaying mechanisms of the stocks can make the outcome counterintuitive furthermore the chosen shape of the input distribution function has the most influence on the predicted outflows especially in the case of possible fashion type exponentially increasing markets the choice of the shape of the inflow distribution could therefore be based on qualitative knowledge of the market of the different products the life span distribution appears to have a more subtle influence on the height of the peaks and the time that they occur so far only a normal distribution has been considered more research is recommended into other types of distribution

causal relationship between energy consumption and gdp revisited the case of korea 1970 1999 abstract causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth is investigated applying a multivariate model of capital labor energy and gdp usual btu energy aggregate is substituted with a divisia aggregate in an attempt to mitigate aggregation bias to test for granger causality in the presence of cointegration among the variables we employ a vector error correction model rather than a vector autoregressive model empirical results for korea over the period 1970 1999 suggest a long run bidirectional causal relationship between energy and gdp and short run unidirectional causality running from energy to gdp the source of causation in the long run is found to be the error correction terms in both directions

resource intensity institutions and development summary we examine the relationship between resource abundance and several indicators of human welfare consistent with the existing literature on the relationship between resource abundance and economic growth we find that given an initial income level resource intensive countries tend to suffer lower levels of human development while we find only weak support for a direct link between resources and welfare there is an indirect link that operates through institutional quality there are also significant differences in the effects that resources have on different measures of institutional quality these results imply that the resource curse is a more encompassing phenomenon than previously considered and that key differences exist between the effects of different resource types on various aspects of governance and human welfare 2005 elsevier ltd all rights reserved

the relationship between energy and gnp further results this paper reexamines the casuality between gnp and energy consumption by using updated us data for the period 1947 1979 as a secondary contribution we investigate the causal relationship between energy consumption and employment applying sims technique we find no causal relationship between gnp and energy consumption we find further that there is a slight unidirectional flow running from employment to energy consumption economic interpretations of the empirical results are also presented

analysis of electricity consumption in china 1990 2016 using index decomposition and decoupling approach abstract electricity consumption accounts for a significant portion of final energy consumption in countries worldwide and has a close relationship with economic growth this paper explores the factors influencing electricity consumption in china during 1990 2016 using index decomposition analysis and analyses the decoupling status between economic growth and electricity consumption in addition to the influencing factors these analyses are conducted at both national and sectoral levels the results reveal that 1 the economic activity effect was the main driving force increasing total electricity consumption in china while the energy intensity effect hindered it 2 both diversity and aggregation existed at the sector level the power generation chemicals and non ferrous sectors were the top three contributors to increased electricity consumption 3 the change of electricity consumption caused by gdp growth in china showed three decoupling states during 1990 2016 expansive negative decoupling expansive coupling and weak decoupling in particular the energy intensity effect stimulated the occurrence of decoupling 4 industrial sectors played a significant role in decoupling in china while service sectoral electricity consumption showed expansive coupling with its sectoral gdp in recent years

what induced china s energy intensity to fluctuate 1997 2006 abstract china is the second largest energy consumer in the world during 1997 2002 china s energy intensity declined by 33 however it rose by 10 7 over 2003 2005 and declined by 1 2 in 2006 what induced china s energy intensity to fluctuate so drastically industry accounts for approximately 70 of the total energy consumption in china in this paper we decompose china s industrial energy intensity changes between 1997 and 2002 into sectoral structural effects and efficiency effects measured by sectoral energy intensities at two digit level and including the shifts of product mix in the sub sector or firm level using tornqvist and sato vartia index methods the results show that in this period efficiency effects possibly contributed to a majority of the decline while the contribution from structural effects was less during 2003 2005 the excessive expansion of high energy consuming sub sectors and the high investment ratio were foremost sources of the increasing energy intensity attributed to the government efforts the energy intensity has started to decline slightly since july 2006 in future to save more energy in addition to technical progress china should attach more importance to optimizing its sectoral structure and lowering its investment ratio

dynamic linkages among transport energy consumption income and co2 emission in malaysia this paper examines the dynamic relationship between income energy use and carbon dioxide co2 emissions in malaysia using time series data during 1975 to 2011 this study also attempts to validate the environmental kuznet curve ekc hypothesis applying a multivariate model of income energy consumption in the transportation sector carbon emissions structural change in the economy and renewable energy use the empirical evidence confirmed that there is a long run relationship between the variables as shown by the result of co integration analysis the results indicate that the inverted u shape ekc hypothesis does not fully agree with the theory the coefficient of squared gdp is not statistically different from zero the time duration and the annual data used for the present study do not seem to strongly validate the existence of ekc hypothesis in the case of malaysia causality test shows that the relationship between gdp and co2 is unidirectional the granger causality test results reveal that emissions granger cause income energy consumption and renewable energy use moreover we find that income granger causes energy consumption and renewable energy use and both structural change and renewable energy use granger cause energy consumption in road transportation

multilevel lmdi decomposition of changes in aggregate energy consumption a cross country analysis in the eu 27 abstract this paper aims at analysing the factors behind the change in aggregate energy consumption in the eu 27 also identifying differences between member states the logarithmic mean divisia index method lmdi is applied to multiplicatively decompose at the country level the variation in aggregate energy consumption in the eu 27 member states for the 2001 2008 period we also analyse the sensitivity of the results when several aggregation levels are considered with energy intensity used as the criterion to aggregate countries this allows us to check robustness of results also enabling an improved understanding of both inter and intra unit effects results indicate that improvements in energy efficiency in the eu 27 were not enough to overcome the pressure of european economic activity on aggregate energy consumption mediterranean countries and especially former communist states increased their energy consumptions most of them favoured by structural change the analysis also reveals that the impact of intra group movements on aggregate energy consumption is partially offset when moving from higher to lower aggregation levels

a multivariate cointegration analysis of the role of energy in the us macroeconomy abstract this paper extends my previous analysis of the causal relationship of gdp and energy use in the usa in the post war period a majority of the relevant variables are integrated justifying a cointegration analysis the results show that cointegration does occur and that energy input cannot be excluded from the cointegration space the results are plausible in terms of macroeconomic dynamics the results are similar to my previous granger causality results and contradict claims in the literature based on bivariate models that there is no cointegration between energy and output

energy consumption and gdp in tunisia cointegration and causality analysis abstract in this paper the johansen cointegration technique is used to examine the causal relationship between per capita energy consumption pcec and per capita gross domestic product pcgdp for tunisia during the 1971 2004 period in order to test for granger causality in the presence of cointegration among the variables a vector error correction model vecm is used instead of a vector autoregressive var model our estimation results indicate that the pcgdp and pcec for tunisia are related by one cointegrating vector and that there is a long run bi directional causal relationship between the two series and a short run unidirectional causality from energy to gross domestic product gdp the source of causation in the long run is found to be the error correction terms in both directions hence an important policy implication resulting from this analysis is that energy can be considered as a limiting factor to gdp growth in tunisia conclusions for tunisia may also be relevant for a number of countries that have to go through a similar development path of increasing pressure on already scarce energy resources

decomposing the decoupling of co2 emissions and economic growth in brazil abstract this paper examines the occurrence of a decoupling between the growth rates in economic activity and co 2 emissions from energy consumption in brazil from 2004 to 2009 this decoupling was highlighted when economic activity and co 2 emissions moved in opposite directions in 2009 more generally we observe several periods of relative decoupling in brazil but not to the extent witnessed in 2009 to identify the determinants of emissions change we develop a decomposition model based on a log mean divisia index lmdi framework the results indicate that the carbon intensity and energy mix are the main determinant of emissions reduction in brazil between 2004 and 2009 modifications in the economy structure are also associated to emission mitigation in the period such evidence demonstrates similarities with events of decoupling registered for the interval 1980 1994 in brazil finds from brazil differ from observations in other countries in which improvement in energy intensity has been the most common determinant of emissions reduction

government debt government spending and private sector behavior a current period tax reduction financed by issuing government debt shifts the timing of tax collection from the current period to the future if the future taxes implied by government debt are not fully perceived and discounted by the private sector there will be a net wealth effect that increases private sector consumption thus reducing capital accumulation and growth if on the other hand the implied future taxes are perceived and discounted by the private sector the current period tax reduction will be used to increase private saving to pay for the future taxes and government debt will be absorbed without any real effects on the economy the effects of government spending financed by current period taxation also depend upon private sector perceptions 2 if the benefits of government spending are ignored private sector consumption will decrease in accordance with the reduction in permanent disposable income to the extent that government spending is on consumption type goods that are perceived as substitutes for privately provided consumption goods there will be a relatively greater reduction in private sector consumption to the extent that government spending is on investment type goods yielding future goods and services that are perceived as substitutes for future privately provided consumption goods there will be a relatively smaller reduction in private sector consumption the standard approach to modeling private sector consumption saving behavior involves a rather asymmetric set of assumptions as to how the private sector perceives the various elements of government fiscal policy 3 current period taxes are assumed to be fully perceived but current period government spending is implicitly assumed to be completely ignored by the private sector in considering permanent personal disposable income the private sector is assumed to be forward looking in its assessment of income and taxation the stock of government debt is nevertheless included as part of the stock of private wealth the implicit assumption associate professor of economics graduate school of business university of chicago 1101 east 58th street chicago il 60637 i thank eugene fama levis kochin michael mussa paul evans and an anonymous referee for helpful comments i am particularly grateful to daniel benjamin for contributing many hours of discussion and laura lahaye who was a research assistant and valuable adviser on earlier drafts the theoretical debate on the burden of the debt has been long standing gerald o driscoll 1977 documents ricardo s nineteenth century position robert barro 1974 reopened the debate by introducing the fundamental issue of intergenerational transfers also discussed in merton miller and charles upton 1974 the empirical side of the debate was initiated by levis kochin s 1974 attempt to test for the effects of deficits on consumption and by martin feldstein s 1974 attempt to test for the effects of social security wealth on consumption other empirical contributions include jess yawitz and laurence meyer 1976 myself 1978 and j earnest tanner 1978 1979 with respect to the effects of government deficits and debt and barro 1978 michael darby 1979 and dean leimer and selig lesnoy 1982 with respect to social security wealth see also interesting recent papers by john seater 1982 who generates detailed tests of the effects of deficits and debt on consumption charles plosser 1982 who explores the effects of government spending and debt shocks on interest rates and feldstein 1982 who attempts tests similar to some in this paper see fn 29 2martin bailey s 1962 1971 development of the effects of government spending on private consumption and aggregate economic activity is the seminal contribution paul david and john scadding 1974 extend bailey s ideas and provide some supporting empirical evidence more recently willem buiter 1977 and myself 1978 developed models based on bailey s earlier work barro 1981 has an interesting paper on related issues see also david aschauer 1982 3the standard approach incorporates fiscal policy through the concept of personal disposable income and by including the stock of government debt as part of personal wealth see for example the empirical specification of albert ando and franco modigliani 1963 which has been the basis of most empirical consumption studies since and feldstein 1974 for one of the more influential papers based on the ando modigliani specification

residential energy consumption in urban china a decomposition analysis abstract residential energy consumption rec is the second largest energy use category 10 in china and urban residents account for 63 of the rec understanding the underlying drivers of variations of urban rec thus helps to identify challenges and opportunities and provide advices for future policy measures this paper applies the lmdi method to a decomposition of china s urban rec during the period of 1998 2007 at disaggregated product activity level using data collected from a wide range of sources our results have shown an extensive structure change towards a more energy intensive household consumption structure as well as an intensive structure change towards high quality and cleaner energy such as electricity oil and natural gas which reflects a changing lifestyle and consumption mode in pursuit of a higher level of comfort convenience and environmental protection we have also found that china s price reforms in the energy sector have contributed to a reduction of rec while scale factors including increased urban population and income levels have played a key role in the rapid growth of rec we suggest that further deregulation in energy prices and regulatory as well as voluntary energy efficiency and conservation policies in the residential sector should be promoted

does urbanization drive economic growth decoupled from energy consumption in china s logistics abstract logistics has gradually become a major energy consumer in china along with urbanization and e commerce a better understanding of economic growth decoupled from energy consumption in logistics could relieve the pressure of energy supply and environmental pollution a combined model based on the tapio decoupling model kaya identity and log mean divisia index was proposed to decompose the impact of urbanization into 4 related factors comparative analysis was applied to investigate the similarities of and differences in the urbanization related factors affecting the decoupling state of provinces the main results were as follows 1 weak decoupling was the dominant state of logistics in china during 2007 2016 there were weak decoupling and strong decoupling in most of the observation period in the eastern region while there was no strong decoupling in the central and western regions 2 from the national perspective urbanization related factors had very significant but different impacts population quantity spatial structure and spatial expansion were the key inhibitors while population density was the main contributor 3 from the regional perspective the patterns of urbanization related factors in the three regions were similar population density had a positive but decreasing effect on decoupling in the three regions especially the western region population quantity had an increasing negative effect on decoupling in the three regions especially the central and western regions spatial expansion had an increasing negative effect on decoupling in the eastern and western regions but a decreasing negative effect in the central region and spatial structure had a stable negative effect on the three regions finally some policy implications were proposed

causality between energy consumption and economic growth in india a note on conflicting results abstract this note examines the different direction of causal relation between energy consumption and economic growth in india applying engle granger cointegration approach combined with the standard granger causality test on indian data for the period 1950 1996 we find that bi directional causality exists between energy consumption and economic growth further we apply johansen multivariate cointegration technique on the different set of variables the same direction of causality exists between energy consumption and economic growth this is different from the results obtained in earlier studies

resource abundance and economic growth in the united states abstract it is a common assumption that regions within the same country converge to approximately the same steady state income levels the so called absolute convergence hypothesis focuses on initial income levels to account for the variability in income growth among regions empirical data seem to support the absolute convergence hypothesis for us states but the data also show that natural resource abundance is a significant negative determinant of growth we find that natural resource abundance decreases investment schooling openness and r d expenditure and increases corruption and we show that these effects can fully explain the negative effect of natural resource abundance on growth

natural resources capital accumulation and the resource curse abstract early concern by economists for the effect of natural capital on economic growth gave way to complacency and neglect during the nineteenth century evidence has emerged however that since the 1960s the economic performance of low income countries has been inversely related to their natural resource wealth this relationship is not a deterministic one so policy counts seea can help improve the policy and performance of resource abundant low income countries by reinforcing the rationale for the sound management of natural resources and also by providing an index of policy sustainability in the form of the net saving rate this policy index along with other measures such as a capital fund for sterilizing the rent initiatives to increase the transparency of rent flows and the rigorous evaluation of alternative uses of additional public sector revenue can improve the efficiency by which natural resource rent is transformed into alternative forms of capital to sustain rising social welfare chad and mauritania provide case studies to illustrate how seea and net saving can be used to diagnose policy failure and improve economic performance

value standards in sub sustainable development on limits of ecological economics abstract sustainable development is hard to conceptualize as an economic problem and an economic problem is also ambiguous thus there is room for several kinds of ecological economics this paper analyses different ways of relating ecological and economical thinking to each other and how expertise in these fields relates to politics available methods are delimited in scope where some are suitable for the analysis of sustainable development and others are not it is concluded that the promotion of sustainable development as a basic value assumes an explicit value strategy it is argued that neoclassical economics for example cost benefit analysis is suitable for analysis of sustainable development only as a special case and alternatives are at hand for other cases to illustrate a non neoclassical analysis an empirical investigation using the sustainable development records approach is briefly reported upon

energy consumption and economic growth for selected oecd countries further evidence from the granger causality test in the frequency domain abstract this paper aims to reexamine the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth for 20 oecd countries to that end we employ a granger causality test in the frequency domain which allows us to distinguish short temporary and long run permanent causality the empirical results could be summarized as following first in terms of causality running from gdp to energy consumption there is a temporary relationship for australia austria canada italy japan mexico the netherlands portugal the uk the usa and a permanent relationship for austria belgium denmark germany italy japan the netherlands norway and the usa second in terms of causality running from energy consumption to gdp there is a temporary relationship for austria denmark italy the netherlands norway and portugal and a permanent relationship for belgium finland greece italy japan and portugal the main implication of our finding is that the energy policies should take into consideration not only the causality direction between economic growth and energy consumption but also whether it is temporal or permanent and furthermore authorities must design policy actions accordingly

an analysis of the decoupling relationship between co2 emission in power industry and gdp in china based on lmdi method abstract china predominantly relies on thermal power generation to meet its power requirement which has led to a major increase in total co2 emission and poses a huge threat to the development of power industry in order to reduce co2 emission in power industry and develop economy simultaneously it is necessary to study how to achieve the strong decoupling relationship between co2 emission in power industry and gdp in china however such studies are relatively limited so far thus this paper mainly inquiries the major driving factors on the decoupling during the period of 1985 2016 first the decoupling state in china is quantified by using the tapio decoupling indicator then this paper carries out the decomposition of the decoupling index to explore the driving factors affecting the decoupling by the logarithmic mean divisia index lmdi method and kaya identity equation finally energy consumption in power generation thermal power structure power generation structure transmission and distribution loss electrification energy intensity and economic scale are explored to discuss the decoupling relationship with respect to the co2 emission reduction the results show that the decoupling relationship is in an alternating state between weak decoupling and expansive negative decoupling in 1985 2016 and the influences of seven factors on the decoupling relationship are of difference wherein energy intensity as well as energy consumption in power generation promotes the decoupling while both the economic scale and electrification are the two main factors that inhibit the decoupling the other three factors have relatively weak effects therefore based on the empirical results this paper puts forward some policy suggestions to effectively promote the decoupling between china s electric co2 emission and economic growth

the resource curse revisited a bayesian model averaging approach abstract the evidence for the effects of oil rents on growth is mixed a result which can be explained with model uncertainty we address the issue using bayesian model averaging techniques and an updated cross country data set for long term growth in the period 1970 2014 including 91 countries and 54 potential growth determinants we do not find empirical evidence for the existence of a natural resource curse in our sample on the contrary our results suggest a robust positive effect of oil rents on long term economic growth we then introduce interaction terms of oil rents with potential conditions under which oil dependency can lead to sub standard growth the results indicate that the positive effect of oil rents may be conditional on the quality of institutions we test the robustness of our results using a panel data set and find neither a curse nor a positive effect of oil rents on short to medium run growth

economic growth urbanization and energy consumption a provincial level analysis of china abstract as the largest developing country with fast paced economic growth china s development has been characterized by a high degree of energy consumption high level of heavy industry international trade and urbanization progress in this study we extend the current literature by incorporating urbanization energy consumption and international trade into a production function using a panel data set model over the period from 2001 to 2012 the results show that urbanization and capital are the major contributors to china s economic growth meanwhile there exists a u shaped relationship between urbanization and economic growth that heavy industry exerts a significant negative effect on economic growth using system generalized methods of moments gmm sys estimation methods and the relationship between international trade and economic growth is mixed and no consistent results support the conclusion that the international trade promotes economic growth adjusting the industry and trade structure in economic growth is the priority for the policy makers

environmental degradation as engine of undesirable economic growth via self protection consumption choices we analyze growth dynamics in an economy where the well being of economic agents depends on three goods leisure a free access environmental good and a private good that can be consumed as a substitute for the environmental resource the processes of production and consumption of the private good by each agent impose negative externalities on other agents through the depletion of the environmental good this paper shows that in such context the existence of private substitutes for environmental goods may fuel an undesirable economic growth process this process is driven by the continuous increase in agents needs for private consumption generated by the progressive reduction in free consumption of the environmental good

structural breaks energy consumption and economic growth revisited evidence from taiwan abstract this paper studies the stability between energy consumption and gdp for taiwan during 1954 2003 we use aggregate as well as various disaggregate data of energy consumption including coal oil gas and electricity to employ the unit root tests and the cointegration tests allowing for structural breaks our main findings are first though gas consumption seems to have structural breaks in the 1960s after considering the structural breaks the series is a stationary variable when taiwan adopted its expansionary export trade policy second we find that different directions of causality exist between gdp and various kinds of energy consumption the empirical result shows unanimously in the long run that energy acts as an engine of economic growth and that energy conservation may harm economic growth third the cointegration between energy consumption and gdp is unstable and some economic events may affect the stability overall we do find the structural breakpoints and they look to match clearly with the corresponding critical economic incidents

decomposition analysis for assessing the progress in decoupling industrial growth from co2 emissions in the eu manufacturing sector decomposition analysis is used in this paper not only to explain changes in industrial co2 emissions but also to comparatively evaluate the progress made in 14 eu countries in decoupling emissions from industrial growth the analysis is performed for the period 1990 2003 by distinguishing two time intervals for assessing progress prior to and following the agreement on the kyoto protocol the refined laspeyres model is used to determine the impact of 5 explanatory factors output energy intensity structure fuel mix and utility mix the obtained results are further elaborated in order to assess the real efforts undertaken in each country and their effectiveness in dissociating the economic and environmental dimensions of development moreover a rescaling procedure is implemented in order to adjust efforts to the average progress in the eu and proceed to a fair comparative evaluation it is found that most eu countries made a considerable but not always sufficient decoupling effort while no significant acceleration is observed in the post kyoto period

the relationship between energy consumption energy prices and economic growth time series evidence from asian developing countries this paper estimates the causal relationships between energy consumption and income for india indonesia the philippines and thailand using cointegration and error correction modelling techniques the results indicate that in the short run unidirectional granger causality runs from energy to income for india and indonesia while bidirectional granger causality runs from energy to income for thailand and the philippines in the case of thailand and the philippines energy income and prices are mutually causal the study results do not support the view that energy and income are neutral with respect to each other with the exception of indonesia and india where neutrality is observed in the short run c 2000 elsevier science b v all rights reserved jel classifications c22 q43 q48

cursing the blessings natural resource abundance institutions and economic growth summary since sachs and warner s sachs j d warner a m 1995a natural resource abundance and economic growth nber working paper no 5398 contribution there has been a lively debate on the so called natural resource curse this paper re examines the effects of natural resource abundance on economic growth using new measures of resource endowment and considering the role of institutional quality we find a positive direct empirical relationship between natural resource abundance and economic growth in both ols and 2sls regressions the positive resource effects are particularly strong for subsoil wealth our results also show no evidence of negative indirect effects of natural resources through the institutional channel

natural resource abundance and economic growth this paper explores whether natural resource abundance leads other things equal to slower growth rates we distinguish between natural resource dependence rd and the natural resource endowment re we estimate three models using world bank data on national capital stocks in a one equation model we show that rd has a negative effect on growth rates apparently confirming the main results of the resource curse literature re however has a positive impact on growth we then estimate a twoequation model in which the impacts of re are much weaker finally we estimate a three equation model in which the impacts of natural resources on growth disappears

natural resources and economic growth the role of investment is it possible that excessive reliance on natural resources affects saving and investment in a way that retards economic growth and thus in the long run the level of output per capita this paper reviews the literature explores the data and compares and contrasts the explanatory power and interplay of natural resources and civil liberties our proxy for institutional variables currently under scrutiny in the literature we propose that natural resource dependence may be viewed as an exogenous factor that impedes economic growth and investment as well as institutions even if we stress that natural resource abundance may be good for growth