the impact of rural electric access on deforestation rates summary overpopulation and economic industrialization are two common explanations for deforestation political ecology however highlights that good governance and effective land management at the local level can offset the impact of population growth and development on environmental degradation in this paper we provide an innovative argument derived from political ecology to explain deforestation but rather than pursing a bottom up approach to governance we take a top down approach we argue that the state can ease deforestation rates by weaning rural populations off of the consumption of biomass for their energy needs by expanding rural electrification access using a panel analysis of 158 countries for the years 1990 2000 and 2010 we find that not only does rural electrification cause deforestation rates to decrease but also that it is more robust in explaining deforestation than population growth or development our study provides two innovations to political ecology it highlights that the state can help rather than hinder local populations with managing their local environments in a more sustainable way by providing them with public goods based energy alternatives and it supplements political ecology s qualitative focus on environmental degradation with a generalized quantitative analysis of state based initiatives on deforestation our results suggest that current global initiatives addressing deforestation specifically the reduction of emissions from deforestation and forest degradation redd agenda of the united nations framework convention on climate change should not only assist local land managers but also work with the state to ensure universal access to electricity

institutions and the environmental kuznets curve for deforestation a crosscountry analysis for latin america africa and asia abstract the relationship between deforestation and income across 66 countries of latin america africa and asia is examined institutional characteristics as well as macroeconomic policies of each country are hypothesized to impact deforestation results show strong evidence of an environmental kuznets curve ekc relationship between income and deforestation for all three continents institutional structure and macroeconomic policy significantly affect the tropical deforestation process improvements in political institutions and governance significantly reduce deforestation the factors leading to deforestation differ across regions however and there is no one size fits all global policy recommendation for restraining the tropical deforestation process

deforestation and the rule of law in a cross section of countries relationships between deforestation and population pressure income growth and insecure property rights are examined with data from 120 countries insecure property rights are hypothesized to arise from two sources government instability or inability to enforce ownership and an absence of government accountability the former source is captured by measures of general lawlessness such as guerrilla warfare revolution and frequent constitutional change the latter is proxied by variables indicating the type of government executive frequency of political purges and the existence of an elected legislature general support is indicated for the property rights hypothesis and for the effects of population growth

macro scale economic influences on tropical forest depletion abstract the paper examines the influence of global and domestic factors on forest depletion in 45 tropical developing countries from 1967 to 1985 it links forest depletion with conditions in the international markets and with domestic macroeconomic and demographic factors calculated elasticities suggest that real exchange rate devaluation debt service food self sufficiency income and export prices of forestry and agricultural output had significant influence on the depletion of tropical forests during the study period

third world debt and tropical deforestation abstract the deforestation and degradation of tropical forests are taking place at an extremely rapid pace according to the food and agriculture organization fao the estimated annual rate of tropical deforestation during the 1981 1985 period was 113 846 square kilometers or 0 6 of the 1981 total forested area the implications of the loss of these forests are staggering myers n 1989 deforestation rates in tropical forests and their climatic implications friends of the earth london tropical forests are extremely rich ecosystems which support a disproportionately large share of the world s plant and animal species forests play a crucial role in both nutrient and hydrological cycling and may provide sustainable economic benefits through managed harvesting of timber and the collection of non timber products such as fruits nuts and rubber also deforestation is a significant source of global warming through its effects on the global carbon cycle this paper focuses on the relationship between debt and deforestation examining conceptual and empirical arguments that debt is a source of deforestation pressure our study develops a behavioral model which suggests that debt can lead to myopic behavior leading to deforestation rates that may not be optimal in the long run but are necessary in the short run to meet current constraints then country by country data on debt deforestation and other variables are analyzed with regression analysis it is shown that debt is significantly correlated with deforestation under a wide variety of assumptions and specifications our results indicate that debt is an important factor in the deforestation of tropical countries there are certainly other sources of deforestation both micro and macroeconomic which may vary significantly from country to country however we focus on debt because of its dominant role in the economies of developing countries and because of the increased use of debt for nature swaps the link between debt and deforestation that is suggested in this paper implies that debt for nature swaps may have a dual effect on deforestation first the contractual agreement is designed to preserve forests as part of the swap second the reduction in debt may itself reduce the pressure to deforest although this indirect effect is small our research provides evidence that reducing debt reduces deforestation which may be an argument to offer deforesting third world countries some form of debt relief and to utilize more fully debt for nature swaps as a tool for preserving environmental quality

interrelationships between income health and the environment extending the environmental kuznets curve hypothesis abstract this paper examines the link between the health indicators and the environmental variables for a cross section of countries widely dispersed on the economic development spectrum while environment and income are seen to have an inverted u shaped relationship environmental kuznets curve ekc hypothesis it is also well established that environment and health are positively related our study focuses on the implications of this for the relationship between health and income in the early phases of income growth the gains in health and the losses in environmental quality could cancel each other out and this challenges the idea that as incomes increase health would always improve to empirically analyse these issues we estimate a two stage least squares model that focuses on the impact of income and the environment on health status with environment being an endogenous variable our results show that the environmental stress variable has a significant negative effect on health status at the same time gross national product gnp levels are shown to vary positively with health status variables we find that the health gains obtained through improved incomes can be negated to a significant extent if the indirect effect of income acting via the environment is ignored research findings in this regard would be a useful policy instrument towards maximising both the environmental and health gains that come with economic growth and development

a theory of mutual formation and moral hazard with evidence from the history of the insurance industry nonprofit mutually owned insurance and banking organizations have significant market shares in the insurance and banking industries a first step in a systematic study of these financial mutual is to examine the reasons for their formation doing so provides empirical support for the view that these mutual arose as an efficient means of addressing contracting challenges caused by aggregate uncertainties and moral hazard a formal model with this property is presented we argue that information asymmetries do more to explain the kinds of contracts offered by financial mutual than do agency problems between owners managers and customers article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

dynamite in the ekc tunnel inconsistencies in resource stock analysis under the environmental kuznets curve hypothesis recent studies incorporating consumption into the relationship between gdp and conservation increasingly reveal that economic prosperity does not lead to improvements in environmental quality even in cases where rich countries may appear to protect a greater proportion of their domestic resources this study reinforces those findings for forest and species conservation across two groups of countries additionally through explicit comparison with two previous ekc studies i enable an illustration of precisely how ekc results are affected by the incorporation of consumption and highlight persistent problems with ekc analyses despite general linear modeling results showing that wealthy countries drive deforestation in poorer countries through the import of forest resources ekc analyses can still indicate improvements in conservation for wealthier countries such contradictions suggest that recent methodological improvements to the ekc cannot guarantee the validity of evidence from ekc analyses poor quality of resource stocks data the restrictive time scales that can be examined with those data and the lack of consistent results across different groups of countries all speak to continued inadequacies of the ekc hypothesis and the need to focus on approaches that address actual behavior patterns exhibited by different income groups

an empirical analysis of forest transition and land use change in developing countries abstract deforestation is a major environmental issue in developing countries and agricultural land expansion is its main cause the objective of this paper is twofold 1 to identify the macroeconomic determinants of ending deforestation and 2 to explain cumulative deforestation and other land uses to do this we first study the probability of a turning point for deforestation i e the switch from decreasing to expanding forest areas based on the forest transition hypothesis second we adapt a land use model to explain the trade off between forest and agriculture during development to take the link between both phenomena into account we estimate a dynamic panel seemingly unrelated regression sur model along with a switching regression model applied to a dataset of 57 developing countries observed over four time periods the estimation results reveal that economic development and institutions play a significant role in long term deforestation our results also suggest that after the first development stage agriculture and forest are not always competing land uses these results provide new insights into public policies such as redd

can economic causes of tropical deforestation be identified at a global level this paper contributes to the literature on the macro scale economic determinants of the increase in global forest depletion by performing a regression analysis based on a panel dataset for fifty tropical countries over an eighteen year period while the initial findings appear at first to confirm a common causality pattern of selected macroeconomic variables in influencing tropical deforestation subsequent statistical tests question the significance of the results more specifically testing for autocorrelation which has been downplayed in previous studies appears to represent a critical issue when the initial results are corrected for autocorrelation the significance of the parameters declines substantially below statistically acceptable levels the implications are twofold first regression analyses that seek to explain deforestation at the global level need to be carefully scrutinised and checked to ensure that they meet standard statistical tests second tropical deforestation might ultimately depend upon case specific factors and further research may render more effective policy suggestions if conducted at a more disaggregated local level

do execution moratoriums increase homicide re examining evidence from illinois this article revisits the event study by cloninger and marchesini 2006 who find that the declaration of the illinois death penalty moratorium on 31 january 2000 had a homicide promoting effect and resulted in 150 additional homicides over the period 2000 2003 we reassess the author s identification strategy which they refer to as portfolio approach and which draws upon event studies in finance research we argue that their methodology is not applicable in crime studies instead we apply univariate time series methods to test for a structural break at a known and unknown break date we allow for unknown break points as the structural break might have occurred slightly earlier criminals might have anticipated the moratorium or later due to persistence in criminal behaviour in addition we implement the synthetic control estimator which approximates the counterfactual homicide series by a weighted average of homicide outcomes in other us states based on various testing methods and two distinct

is there an environmental kuznets curve for deforestation abstract this paper examines the relationship between deforestation and gross domestic product gdp per capita in particular whether an inverted u relationship indicative of worsening then improving deforestation exists between them we note that previous work has used models with restrictive assumptions and recommend a more flexible random coefficients specification which allows for a greater degree of cross country heterogeneity empirical results using data for 76 developing countries between 1961 1992 suggest that the inverted u shaped relationship observed in other studies does not appear to be an empirical regularity with our less restrictive specification statistical tests indicate that this specification is supported by the data we argue that such results are not surprising in view of the wide diversity of physical and social characteristics that exist across countries

the interaction of population growth and environmental quality an important question for policy is whether holding constant per capita income and other relevant factors population pressures have a significant effect upon environmental degradation the authors examine the effect of population pressures upon deforestation in 64 developing countries in an attempt to provide relevant empirical findings data on deforestation were drawn from the food and agriculture organizations production yearbook results suggest that a relationship exists between per capita income and deforestation and that for africa rural population density shifts the relationship upward the increase in the rate of deforestation levels off as income increases the rate of growth in per capita income also has a significant negative impact upon deforestation although the magnitude of the effect is small the authors close in stressing that reducing the rate of population growth is not necessarily the best way to reduce the rate of deforestation deforestation in developing countries is really a problem of market failure since property rights are often neither defined nor enforced there is essentially no private cost of deforestation with no long term stake in the land people have no incentive to use land efficiently this situation must be addressed in conjunction with the problems of poverty and population growth

environment and development theory and international evidence the environmental effects of economic development have significant implications for a wide array of policy questions facing both low and high income countries today internationally agricultural research centers are considering how to incorporate sustainability issues into their research agendas while international lending institutions are taking a close look at the environmental consequences of industrial projects domestically the north american free trade agreement has brought the relationship between economic development and environmental quality to the forefront of u s public policy debate it is surprising that despite the postwar growth of development economics the genesis of environmental economics and the fusion of ideas from both fields into the theme of sustainable development economists have not made much progress in describing the impacts of long term economic growth on environmental quality yet a vigorous public debate has arisen between individuals who maintain that environmental degradation is a necessary outcome of economic growth and those who believe that economic growth and environmental quality go hand in hand this debate was highlighted at the 1992 united nations conference on environment and development in rio de janeiro in part this debate hinges on the properties of the aggregate demand for and supply of environmental quality if the income elasticity of demand for environmental quality or amenities is high then the increased prosperity engendered by economic growth could lead to significantly higher demand for environmental quality proponents of economic growth believe this demand will translate into a higher realized level of quality as both public and private institutions and organi

effects of asymmetric information and reference emission levels on the emissions from deforestation and degradation abstract reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation plus as an important measure to mitigate climate change can effectively reduce the emissions caused by deforestation and degradation in tropical countries it is particularly important in the projects of reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation plus that carbon emission monitoring and reference emission levels are tied to the revenues of a country however how do the reference emission levels and information of emissions influence project performance is still uncertain within a theoretical analysis framework this paper considers the confliction among landholder behaviors goals of policymakers as well as the distortion caused by the existence of asymmetric information the theoretical framework reveals two hypotheses through comparing optimal decisions under different scenarios i an increase in reference emission levels can lead to a decrease in landholders efforts and an increase in actual emissions ii information asymmetry caused by the increase of landholder s forest area results in an increase in emissions the empirical study uses panel data for 75 developing countries to test these hypotheses the results show that a monitoring reporting and verification system can help achieve the social optimum level for emissions and the efforts by landholders an increase in the forest areas owned by landholders and in rel will lead to an increase in emissions the empirical results also confirm this point at a global scale as well as regionally in africa latin america the caribbean and asia oceania as solutions for these problems an effective monitoring reporting and verification system is crucial in successful implementation of reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation plus

effects of demographic and related microeconomic change on land quality in hills and mountains of developing countries abstract more than 70 empirical studies indicate that local population growth and its microeconomic manifestations in hills and mountains of developing countries do not necessarily threaten forest production agriculture livestock production or watershed stability population growth can make the cost of land relative to labor increase as this cost increases people often change their methods of managing economic plants and animals and make land improvements to offset initial declines in productivity that result from more frequent use of land thus the relationship between land productivity and relative land labor costs often resembles a u halting population growth or removing people from well settled areas might not improve productivity or reduce some off site damages

deforestation property rights and international trade deforestation primarily affects developing countries most developing countries share two characteristics 1 trade liberalization reforms in the last two decades and 2 weak property rights and limited rule of law this paper investigates this second best world first in a stylized model in which trade distortions are eliminated in an economy whose natural resources are subject to open access second empirically in an estimation exercise that disentangles the direct effect of trade on deforestation rates and an indirect effect through its interaction with ownership security in accordance with the theory the results show that only the indirect effect is significant

deforestation and the environmental kuznets curve an institutional perspective institutions for secure property rights and better environmental policies for moving the system towards a sustainable growth path can reduce the height of an environmental kuznets curve ekc relationship between income and deforestation this study examines the impact of these specific institutional factors on the ekc relationship for deforestation across latin american african and asian countries the factors related to agricultural production population economy and governmental policies of each country are hypothesised to affect deforestation results of the latin american countries show significant evidence of an ekc relationship for deforestation and also relevance of the institutional factors to reduce the rate of deforestation improvements in institutions for secure property rights and better environmental policies can thus significantly reduce the rate of deforestation without hindering the level of economic growth evidence also suggests that the effect of agricultural production on deforestation could be halted by strengthening institutional factors there was found to be complementarity between the institutional factors and forest sector polices and an additive effect between the institutional factors and forest products export promotion policies which could also eventually reduce the rate of deforestation

nonlinearities and heterogeneity in environmental quality an empirical analysis of deforestation we use a panel data set of 59 developing countries over the 1972 1994 period to study the deforestation process relying on both parametric and semiparametric models we examine nonlinearities and heterogeneity in the deforestation process we first study the existence of an environmental kuznets curve ekc and then analyze determinants of deforestation our data sample provides no evidence of an ekc we also find that political institution failures may worsen the deforestation process in developing countries

redd and forest transition tunneling through the environmental kuznets curve abstract international attention is focused on finding ways to reduce emissions from deforestation because of the emerging concerns over climate change however the causes of deforestation are rooted in current economic and development paradigms the causes of deforestation also vary across different geographical regions and have implications for the forest transition attempts to reach an international agreement on curbing deforestation have achieved little success despite over 30 years of un negotiations new initiatives from redd reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation could provide financial incentives to curb deforestation hence alternative development paths for forest cover changes and forest transition are analyzed for the redd policy within the framework of an environmental kuznets curve ekc for deforestation the ekc models are estimated for geographical regions of latin america africa and asia the results based on the panel data analysis of 43 countries covering the period 1970 1994 provides evidence that an inverted u shaped ekc fits for latin america and africa while a u shaped ekc applies to asia the results also indicate that strengthening agricultural and forestry sector policies are important for curbing deforestation the ekc models estimates could provide guidance for decisions on financing the redd policy as specific to each region

what has driven deforestation in developing countries since the 2000s evidence from new remote sensing data summary using newly released and globally available high resolution remote sensing data on forest loss we update the assessment of the cross country determinants of deforestation in developing countries we validate most of the major determinants found in the previous literature generally based on earlier time periods except for the role of institutional quality agricultural trade hitherto relatively neglected is found to be one of the main factors causing deforestation focusing on the effect of international trade we show that countries with different levels of relative forest cover react differently to a shock in agricultural exports value we also emphasize that taking countries development into account may be critical in assessing global deforestation trends the impact of trade is high in countries still endowed with a large proportion of forest cover while it is lower in countries with smaller remaining forest cover we finally estimate through a simple calibration exercise the requirements for a cost effective redd policy for compensating trade losses in an open economy exporting agricultural commodities and endowed with tropical forests we conclude that in a world with increasing global demand it might be costly to compensate totally and thus to offer the right incentives for developing countries to limit deforestation

income inequality and pollution a reassessment of the environmental kuznets curve abstract improvements in some measures of air and water quality can accompany rising per capita income as illustrated by the so called environmental kuznets curve for pollution variables which show such a relationship we hypothesize that a more equitable distribution of power contributes to these outcomes by enhancing the influence on policy of those who bear the costs of pollution relative to the influence of those who benefit from pollution generating activities an empirical analysis of international variations in seven indicators of air and water quality supports this hypothesis literacy political rights and civil liberties are found to have particularly strong effects on environmental quality in low income countries

the economics of tropical deforestation this paper provides a survey of first wave economic studies of tropical deforestation and land use these studies of tropical forest land conversion are generally at the cross country level we also conduct a synthesis cross country analysis of tropical agricultural land expansion the results show that agricultural development is the main factor determining land expansion but institutional factors have an important influence income effects tend to vary from region to region and do not always display an environmental kuznets curve relationship copyright 2001 by blackwell publishers ltd

is environmental degradation an inevitable consequence of economic growth tunneling through the environmental kuznets curve abstract economywide reforms often contribute simultaneously to economic social and environmental gains however unintended adverse side effects occur in many cases when such growth inducing reforms are undertaken while neglecting other policy market or institutional imperfections the remedy does not generally require reversal of the original economywide reforms but rather the ex ante implementation of additional complementary measures that remove such imperfections the ekc approach seeks to relate the state of the environment to the stage of development developing countries could learn from the experiences of industrialized nations and restructure growth and development to tunnel through any potential ekc thereby avoiding going through the same stages of growth that involve relatively high and even irreversible levels of environmental harm an environmentally adjusted measure of national income could significantly change the shape of the development environment relationship recommendations for decision making include actively seeking win win policies that simultaneously yield both economic and environmental gains pre empting environmental harm through ex ante remedial measures and fine tuning reform policies to avoid severe environmental damage the adoption of more sustainable policies will facilitate the attainment of higher levels of development at a lower environmental cost

a methodology to estimate impacts of domestic policies on deforestation compensated successful efforts for avoided deforestation redd climate change mitigation would benefit from reduced emissions from deforestation and degradation redd in developing countries the redd mechanism is in charge of distilling the right incentives for fostering forest conservation with appropriate compensation of foregone revenues which in turn is related to avoided deforestation how many hectares of forests are saved although any prediction of deforestation rates i e business as usual scenarios is challenging and any negotiated target is subject to political influence these two ways have been prioritirized so far in other words proposals have focused on a baseline or cap and trade approach which relevance is questionable because resulting financial compensations are subject to unfairness if estimations of avoided deforestation are not reliable rather than considering overall deforestation predicted and observed we argue that a redd mechanism would gain from linking compensations to real efforts that developing countries implement for slowing deforestation rates this would provide more efficient incentives to design and enforce suitable policies and measures the methodology we present to measure these efforts labeled compensated successful efforts is based on the rationale that overall deforestation is due partly to structural factors and partly to domestic policies and measures this typology differs from others presented in the literature such as proximate underlying causes or economic institutional factors using an econometric model our approach estimates efforts that are i independent of structural factors economic development population initial forest area agricultural export prices ii estimated ex post at the end of the crediting period and iii relative to other countries in order to illustrate the methodology we apply the model to a panel of 48 countries asia latin america africa and four periods between 1970 and 2005 we conclude on the feasibility to estimate avoided deforestation using the compensated successful efforts approach in addition to being conservative from an environmental perspective this approach guarantees fairness by accounting for dramatic changes during the commitment period

execution and deterrence a quasi controlled group experiment using portfolio analysis in a type of controlled group experiment this study develops an empirical model of homicide changes in texas over a period of a normal number of executions the empirically derived model then estimates the changes in the number of homicides in texas 1 over a period of near zero executions and 2 over an immediate subsequent period of double the normal number of executions the actual changes in texas homicides over the first period is less than estimated by the model and greater or no different than estimated by the model in the second period because changes in the number of homicides in texas and throughout the united states were negative over both periods these empirical results are consistent with the deterrence hypothesis that is there were a greater than predicted number of homicides in the first period and fewer than predicted number in the second period

deforestation and the real exchange rate deforestation is a phenomenon that has largely been concentrated in the developing world we construct a theoretical model of deforestation that focuses on the factors affecting the incentives to transform forested land into agricultural land we show that i lower discount rates and stronger institutions decrease deforestation ii depreciations in the real exchange rate increase deforestation in developing countries whereas the opposite obtains in developed countries iii paradoxically better institutions may exacerbate the deleterious impact of depreciations in developing countries these hypotheses are tested on an annual sample of 101 countries over the 1961 1988 period and are not rejected by the data our results suggest that short term macroeconomic policy institutional factors and the interaction between the two are potentially important determinants of environmental outcomes