the ethics of intergenerational distribution reply and response to john e roemer recent concerns among economists over global climate change have given rise to an uneven literature on intergenerational welfare economics environmental resource economics in its march 2011 issue published a paper by the political philosopher john e roemer that contains not only errors of interpretation of what others have written but also misunderstandings of settled matters i respond and reply to roemer by re exploring the foundations of intergenerational welfare economics i show that ethical pluralism gives rise to a very different framework for thinking about the subject than the one roemer presents in his paper moreover his dismissal of much of what welfare economists write on such concepts as social discount rates has as its source an utterly narrow view of the contexts in which economic evaluation is undertaken in the contemporary world

are optimal emissions really optimal four critical issues for economists in the greenhouse although the greenhouse effect is by many considered as one of the most serious environmental problems several economic studies of the greenhouse effect most notably nordhaus s dice model suggest that it is optimal to allow the emissions of greenhouse gases ghg to increase by a factor of three over the next century other studies have found that substantial reductions can be justified on economic grounds this paper explores into the reasons for these differences and identifies four partly overlapping crucial issues that have to be dealt with when analysing the economics of the greenhouse effect low probability but catastrophic events cost evaluation methods the choice of discount rate the choice of decision criterion the paper shows that i these aspects are crucial for the policy conclusions drawn from models of the economics of climate change and that ii ethical choices have to be made for each of these issues this fact needs wider recognition since economics is very often perceived as a value neutral tool that can be used to provide policy makers with optimal policies

trading off generations equity discounting and climate change the prevailing literature discusses intergenerational trade offs in climate change predominantly in terms of the ramsey equation relying on the infinitely lived agent model we discuss these trade offs in a continuous time olg framework and relate our results to the infinitely lived agent setting we identify three shortcomings of the latter first underlying normative assumptions about social preferences cannot be deduced unambiguously second the distribution among generations living at the same time cannot be captured third the optimal solution may not be implementable in overlapping generations market economies

global warming irreversibility and learning a number of economists have argued that the literature on the irreversibility effect implies that current abatement of greenhouse gas emissions should be greater when there is the possibility of obtaining better information in the future about the potential damages from global warming than when there is no possibility of obtaining better information in this paper we show that even the simplest model of global warming does not satisfy either of epstein s 1980 sufficient conditions so it is not possible to use epstein s analysis to tell whether the irreversibility effect applies to models of global warming we derive an alternative sufficient condition for the irreversibility effect to hold

property tax and fiscal discipline in oecd countries this paper investigates the effects of property taxation on fiscal discipline for a sample of oecd countries over the period 1973 2011 we find that aggregate property taxation in total tax revenues is not statistically correlated with the primary surplus to gdp ratio in contrast a greater reliance on property taxes pertaining to sub national governments contributes to fiscal discipline suggesting that fiscal decentralization should favor responsive tax base instruments

state responses to fiscal crises the effects of budgetary institutions and politics this paper explores the dynamics of state taxes and spending during the late 1980s when regional economic downturns and increased expenditure demands led to substantial state budget deficits more restrictive state fiscal institutions such as no deficit carryover rules and tax and expenditure limitations are correlated with more rapid fiscal adjustment to unexpected deficits political factors are also important when a single party controls the state house and the governorship deficit adjustment is much faster than when party control is divided in gubernatorial election years tax increases and spending cuts are both significantly smaller than at other times

the damage costs of climate change a note on tangibles and intangibles applied to dice economic cost benefit analysis of the costs of greenhouse gas emission abatement and climate change often points towards limited abatement this note elucidates one reason why this result is obtained the way in which the intangible damages are treated and the utility function is specified on the basis of the dice model it is shown that by putting the intangible damages directly into the utility function and by assuming them to grow with per capita income the optimal reduction increases and in the second case more than triples compared to nordhaus s original results

the aggregation of climate change damages a welfare theoretic approach the economic value of environmental goods is commonly determined using the concepts of willingness to pay wtp or willingness to accept wta however the wtp wta observed in different countries or between individuals will differ according to socio economic characteristics in particular income this notion of differentiated values for otherwise identical goods say a given reduction in mortality risk has been criticized as unethical most recently in the context of the social cost chapter of the ipcc second assessment report these critics argue that being a function of income wtp wta estimates reflect the unfairness in the current income distribution and for equity reasons uniform per unit values should therefore be applied across individuals and countries this paper analyses the role of equity in the aggregation of climate change damage estimates using basic tools of welfare economics it shows one way of how wtp wta estimates can be corrected in aggregation if the underlying income distribution is considered unfair it proposes that in the aggregation process individual estimates be weighted with an equity factor derived from the social welfare and utility functions equity weighting can significantly increase aggregate global damage figures although some specifications of weighting functions also imply reduced estimates the paper also shows that while the postulate of uniform per unit values is compatible with a wide range of reasonable utility and welfare specifications there are also cases where the common value notion is not compatible with defensible welfare concepts

fundamental irreversibilities in stock externalities abstract this paper concerns the irreversibility effect in stock externalities in an environment of uncertainty with learning taking place one may wish to under emit today to avoid potential environmental irreversibilities alternatively one may wish to under invest in pollution control capital avoiding investments in sunk capital that turn out to be wasted the paper develops theoretical results on the tension between these two effects and separates risk aversion from the irreversibility effect the paper also presents a simple example in climate change policy

how to decide when experts disagree uncertainty based choice rules in environmental policy environmental economists have traditionally addressed the issue of choice under uncertainty by applying the expected utility hypothesis when policymakers face a panel of experts with widely divergent beliefs the problem may more accurately be described as a case of choice under pure uncertainty arrow and hurwicz 1972 demonstrate that rational choice criteria under pure uncertainty will focus on the extremes of the state space not the midpoint as is typically assumed using nordhaus s dice model uncertainty based choices about global warming policies are evaluated linkages to the safe minimum standard and the precautionary principle are also discussed

evaluation of property tax bonus to promote solar thermal systems in andalusia spain abstract this paper evaluates the effects of a property tax bonus to promote the installation of solar thermal energy systems in buildings in andalusia southern spain the propensity score matching methodology is used the treatment group consists of municipalities of andalusia that established property tax bonuses in their municipalities in 2010 the control group consists of municipalities that did not the response variable measures the number of new square meters of solar thermal systems installed in 2010 the analysis leads to the conclusion that municipalities that established a property tax bonus had installed on average 102 245 to 122 389 square meters more these results indicate that the percentage increase in squares meters installed in municipalities which adopted the tax bonus promotion ranged from 70 74 to 98 38 these percentages were lower for rural municipalities 49 00 to 77 06

a cost benefit analysis of slowing climate change there are many conflicting views regarding the true dimensions of the climate change problem often these viewpoints are based on different estimates of key parameters with little indication as to why parameter estimates vary so much and which ones might be the more reliable the prospects for a co ordinated strategy to tackle climate change appear dim little consensus has emerged for example regarding the costs of abating carbon emissions some take the view that considerable improvements in energy efficiency are available at negative cost by setting minimum efficiency standards for vehicles and domestic appliances e g mills et al 1991 others regard the macroeconomic costs of even small reductions in carbon emissions as substantial manne and richels 1993 in the judgement of other researchers a proportion of carbon emissions arise purely as a result of institutional failings either at a regional level in the subsidies paid to fossil fuel energy producers in the erroneous belief that this promotes economic growth shah and larsen 1994 in failure to deal with air pollution glomsrod et al 1992 and vehicle congestion in urban areas hughes 1994 or at a global level in failing to make appropriate transfers to those countries whose forests contain rich biodiversity which we would wish to preserve pearce 1991

how sensitive is nordhaus to weitzman climate policy in dice with an alternative damage function abstract the damage function in the famous climate economy model dice has received much criticism weitzman 2010 has proposed an alternative approach that gives more serious attention to climate change impacts for larger temperature increases we calculate optimal climate policy with dice using this approach optimal emission abatement trajectories turn out to be very sensitive to the damage specification we summarise the difference between the associated optimal abatement costs in npv terms

the influence of decentralized taxes and intergovernmental grants on local spending volatility abstractthe influence of decentralized taxes and intergovernmental grants on local spending volatility regional studies this paper studies what affects the volatility of sub central public spending in 20 organisation for economic co operation and development oecd countries the evidence based on data from 1972 to 2007 shows that the volatility of intergovernmental grants from upper levels is positively associated with the volatility of local expenditure on the other hand the volatility of local tax revenues mainly that of property taxes exerts the opposite effect these findings suggest that making local governments rely more on grants than own tax revenues adversely affects their spending stability allowing them to levy autonomously taxes relying on responsive tax bases provides incentives to smooth their expenditure

optimal climate policy is a utopia from quantitative to qualitative cost benefit analysis abstract the dominance of quantitative cost benefit analysis cba and optimality concepts in the economic analysis of climate policy is criticised among others it is argued to be based in a misplaced interpretation of policy for a complex climate economy system as being analogous to individual inter temporal welfare optimisation the transfer of quantitative cba and optimality concepts reflects an overly ambitious approach that does more harm than good an alternative approach is to focus the attention on extreme events structural change and complexity it is argued that a qualitative rather than a quantitative cba that takes account of these aspects can support the adoption of a minimax regret approach or precautionary principle in climate policy this means implement stringent ghg reduction policies as soon as possible

equitable cost benefit analysis of climate change policies the literature of welfare maximising greenhouse gas emission reduction strategies pays remarkably little attention to equity this paper introduces three ways to consider efficiency and equity simultaneously the first method inspired by kant and rawls maximises net present welfare without international cooperation as if all regions share the fate of the region affected worst by climate change optimal emission abatement varies greatly depending on the spatial and temporal resolution that is the grid at which maximum impact is defined the second method is inspired by varian s no envy emissions are reduced so as to equalise total costs and benefits of climate change over all countries of the world and over all time periods emission reductions are substantial this method approximately preserves the inequities that would occur in a world without climate change the third method uses non linear aggregations of welfare the utilitarian default is linear in a cooperative setting this method cannot distinguish between sources of inequity the higher the aversion to inequity the higher optimal greenhouse gas emission reduction

discounting of long term costs what would future generations prefer us to do decisions with intergenerational consequences may leave future generations worse off i e not be pareto optimal if costs and benefits are not discounted correctly we point out that this happens if the conventional social discount rate is applied to intergenerational costs with that rate the justification of intergenerational costs benefits of a project are invested and the proceeds can cover future costs leads to an inconsistency over the long term eventually the supposed benefits of any project become larger than the entire gnp the conventional approach commits an error by treating the time preference component of the discount rate as if it represented creation of wealth while it really involves only redistribution the time horizon of the redistribution is limited by the duration of market transactions especially loans thus we recommend a two step discounting procedure with the conventional social discount rate for the short term about 30 years and the growth rate of the economy for the long term data for gnp per capita growth in the us the uk france germany japan and the soviet union since the industrial revolution combined with data for net economic welfare per capita suggest an intergenerational discount rate in the range of 1 to 2 for practical application the rate at which costs and benefits will grow over time is just as important as the discount rate only the difference between these two rates matters for many environmental costs these rates may be close to each other during the next few generations this implies that some of the uncertainty in the prediction of rates cancels and one can treat the problem as if the effective rate were close to zero the consequence for costs such as global warming or nuclear power can be very significant the valuation can increase by more than an order of magnitude compared to values based on conventional discounting

on the economics of renewable energy sources abstract with the global expansion of renewable energy re technologies the provision of optimal re policy packages becomes an important task we review pivotal aspects regarding the economics of renewables that are relevant to the design of an optimal re policy many of which are to date unresolved we do so from three interrelated perspectives that a meaningful public policy framework for inquiry must take into account first we explore different social objectives justifying the deployment of re technologies and review model based estimates of the economic potential of re technologies i e their socially optimal deployment level second we address pivotal market failures that arise in the course of implementing the economic potential of re sources in decentralized markets third we discuss multiple policy instruments curing these market failures our framework reveals the requirements for an assessment of the relevant options for real world decision makers in the field of re policies this review makes it clear that there are remaining white areas on the knowledge map concerning consistent and socially optimal re policies

local choice of property taxation evidence from norway fiscal competition may influence the design of tax systems the tax competition literature has concentrated on mobility of tax base and tax levels while we turn the attention to the political decision making system and the determination of tax structure in the norwegian setting local governments make a discrete choice whether to have property tax the local choice is investigated in an econometric model allowing for yardstick competition our results indicate that yardstick competition explains the distinct geographic pattern in local property taxation observed grants have no effect on the propensity to have property taxation consistent with the flypaper effect the main methodological challenge handled concerns spatial interaction with discrete choice

learning and stock effects in environmental regulation the case of greenhouse gas emissions abstract this paper concerns the optimal regulation of greenhouse gases that lead to global climate change in particular we focus on uncertainty and learning which over time resolves uncertainty we present an empirical stochastic model of climate economy interactions and present results on the tension between postponing control until more is known vs acting now before irreversible climate change takes place uncertainty in our model is in the damage caused by global warming the results suggest that a temporary carbon tax may dominate a permanent one because a temporary tax may induce increased flexibility

why the far distant future should be discounted at its lowest possible rate abstract a critical feature of the distant future is currently unresolvable uncertainty about what will then be the appropriate rate of return on capital to use for discounting this paper shows that there is a well defined sense in which the lowest possible interest rate should be used for discounting the far distant future part of any investment project some implications are discussed for evaluating long term environmental projects or activities like measures to mitigate the possible effects of global climate change

selection on observed and unobserved variables assessing the effectiveness of catholic schools in this paper we measure the effect of catholic high school attendance on educational attainment and test scores because we do not have a good instrumental variable for catholic school attendance we develop new estimation methods based on the idea that the amount of selection on the observed explanatory variables in a model provides a guide to the amount of selection on the unobservables we also propose an informal way to assess selectivity bias based on measuring the ratio of selection on unobservables to selection on observables that would be required if one is to attribute the entire effect of catholic school attendance to selection bias we use our methods to estimate the effect of attending a catholic high school on a variety of outcomes our main conclusion is that catholic high schools substantially increase the probability of graduating from high school and more tentatively attending college we find little evidence of an effect on test scores

giving once giving twice a two period field experiment on intertemporal crowding in charitable giving abstract we study intertemporal crowding between two fundraising campaigns for the same charitable organization by manipulating donors beliefs about the likelihood of future campaigns in two subsequent field experiments the data shows that initial giving is decreasing in the likelihood of a future campaign while subsequent giving increases in initial giving while this refutes the predictions of a simple expected utility model the pattern is in line with a model that allows for anticipated or unanticipated habit formation provided that donations in the two periods are substitutes

quasi option value and climate policy choices in the climate change issue the environmental irreversibility risk of an acceleration of mitigation policies if the worst happens has to be balanced with the investment irreversibility risk of over cautious policies to explore this balance we define an option value for a precautionary climate policy using the simplest decision making model we expose how option value relates to the expected value of future information using quantitative data from an integrated assessment model we find that most of the time the environmental irreversibility dominates the investment irreversibility for all cases explored here the order of magnitude of the option value was significant about 50 of the opportunity cost

sustainability as intergenerational fairness efficiency uncertainty and numerical methods this paper presents an economic model of sustainability defined as intergenerational fairness assuming that intergenerational fairness is an obligation of each generation a recursive optimization problem is obtained the problem has the advantage that uncertainty can readily be incorporated in the model and it can be solved numerically for a wide range of specifications the possibility of trade offs between efficiency and sustainability are discussed under plausible conditions it is shown that a sustainability obligation is met only if there is the expectation of economic growth

on international equity weights and national decision making on climate change abstract estimates of the marginal damage costs of carbon dioxide emissions require the aggregation of monetised impacts of climate change over people with different incomes and in different jurisdictions implicitly or explicitly such estimates assume a social welfare function and hence a particular attitude towards equity and justice we show that previous approaches to equity weighting are inappropriate from a national decision maker s point of view because domestic impacts are not valued at domestic values we propose four alternatives sovereignty altruism good neighbour and compensation with different views on concern for and liability towards foreigners the four alternatives imply radically different estimates of the social cost of carbon and hence the optimal intensity of climate policy

efficiency sustainability and global warming abstract economic analyses of global warming have typically been grounded in the theory of economic efficiency such analyses may be inappropriate because many of the underlying concerns about climate change are rooted not in efficiency but in the intergenerational allocation of economic endowments a simple economic model is developed which demonstrates that an efficient economy is not necessarily a sustainable economy this result leads directly to questions about the policy relevance of several economic studies of the issue we then consider policy alternatives to address global warming in the context of economies with the dual objectives of efficiency and sustainability with particular attention to carbon based taxes

public choice perspectives on the poll tax the community charge which was introduced to england and wales on i april i990 is part of a reform of local government finance with the avowed intention of enhancing local accountability by creating a direct link between local expenditure local taxation and local voting this paper applies public choice theories to evaluate both the economics of its introduction and the responses of the public to the charge in its initial months section ii reviews the main public choice rationale for the community charge and relates accountability to efficient resource allocation section iii examines evidence on voter awareness and fiscal illusion in order to consider whether the replacement of domestic rates by this tax will increase local accountability the stance taken in sections ii and iii is one in which the conservative government is privy to the messages of public choice theory and acts as if to further the public interest by eliciting the correct responses to slay the local government leviathan however any government may have interests other than and divergent with those of the public and this will introduce distortions even in the implementation of public choice prescriptions this point is developed in section iv to offer one explanation of the recent history of the community charge

the productivity of schools and other local public goods producers abstract i construct an agency model of local public goods producers in which households make tiebout choices among jurisdictions in a world of imperfect information and costly residential mobility i examine producers effort and rent under local property tax finance and centralized finance i show that if there are a sufficient number of jurisdictions conventional local property tax finance can attain about as much productivity as a social planner with centralized finance can even if the social planner is armed with more information than a real social planner could plausibly have the key insight is that decentralized tiebout choices make some information the social planner would need verifiable and other information unnecessary

sustainability with uncertain future preferences a feature of the sustainability problem is that the preferences of future generations are uncertain in this paper we put forward a fairness based definition of sustainability that takes this uncertainty into account we analyze the implications of this definition in the context of a model of project evaluation we show that our definition encompasses the concepts of non declining welfare and of weak and strong sustainability furthermore we show that preference uncertainty has a substantial influence on the implications of sustainability

global warming endogenous risk and irreversibility this paper develops two period analytical and numerical models to study the question given a stock of greenhouse gases that poses a risk of future damages of unknown magnitude and the possibility of learning about damages how do sunk abatement capital and a nondegradable stock of greenhouse gases affect optimal first period investment we show that both affect investment the former negatively and the latter positively additionally endogenous risk the risk of damages dependent on the stock of gases results in an increase in optimal investment for any level of capital sunkness or greenhouse gas degradability quantitatively the effect of sunk capital is stronger than the effect of greenhouse gas irreversibility or that of endogenous risk

an overlapping generations model of climate economy interactions a numerically calibrated overlapping generations model of climate change and the world economy is examined in this paper in the absence of intergenerational transfers efficient rates of greenhouse gas emissions abatement rise from 16 in the present to 25 in the long run while mean global temperature increases by 7 40c relative to the preindustrial norm a utilitarian optimum which attaches equal weight to each generation s life cycle utility yields abatement rates that rise from 48 to 89 with a long run temperature increase of 3 40c a second best utilitarian path in which intergenerational transfers are by assumption institutionally infeasible also supports stringent abatement measures i introduction the infinitely lived agent framework pioneered by frank ramsey 1928 has emerged as a central structure in the economics of climate change as characterized by ipcc 1996 working group iii climate change occurs when anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases principally carbon dioxide but also chlorofluorocarbons methane nitrous oxide and water vapor contribute to long term increases in mean global temperature potentially disrupting ecological systems and climate dependent production activities the best known study on the economics of this subject is nordhaus 1994 dynamic model of climate and the economy dice which incorporates assumptions regarding the costs and benefits of greenhouse gas emissions in a standard one sector growth model in nordhaus analysis a 50 reduction in greenhouse gas emissions would reduce gross world output by 0 93 a doubling of greenhouse gas concentrations relative to the preindustrial norm which is expected to occur by the middle of the twenty first century would reduce output by

the economic effects of climate change greenhouse gas emissions are fundamental both to the world s energy system and to its food production the production of co2 the predominant gas implicated in climate change is intrinsic to fossil fuel combustion specifically thermal energy is generated by breaking the chemical bonds in the carbohydrates oil coal and natural gas and oxidizing the components to co2 and h2o one cannot have cheap energy without carbon dioxide emissions similarly methane ch4 emissions an important greenhouse gas in its own right are necessary to prevent the build up of hydrogen in anaerobic digestion and decomposition one cannot have beef mutton dairy or rice without methane emissions climate change is the mother of all externalities larger more complex and more uncertain than any other environmental problem the sources of greenhouse gas emissions are more diffuse than any other environmental problem every company every farm every household emits some greenhouse gases the effects are similarly pervasive weather affects agriculture energy use health and many aspects of nature which in turn affects everything and everyone the causes and consequences of climate change are very diverse and those in low income countries who contribute least to climate change are most vulnerable to its effects climate change is also a long term problem some greenhouse gases have an atmospheric life time measured in tens of thousands of years the quantities of emissions involved are enormous in 2000 carbon dioxide emissions alone and excluding land use change were 24 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide tco2

currency unions and trade how large is the treatment effect currency unions and trade what can the data say the impact of a common currency on trade can be grossly mismeasured if countries that belong to currency unions are systematically different from those that do not and if the relationship between trade and its observable determinants is complex i argue that such complications are plausible and likely to distort the empirical results of a recent economic policy paper by andrew rose issue 30 2000 pp 7 45 using techniques designed to be robust in this situation i find that the effects of common currency on international trade are considerably less dramatic and much less precisely estimated torsten persson i have always maintained that the measured effect of a single currency on trade appears implausibly large but i am not convinced by torsten persson s diagnosis and proposed solution i apply a variety of estimation techniques to a new larger data set where many more instances of currency union creation and abandonment make it possible to rely on time series as well as cross sectional evidence the results are similar to my earlier ones the effect of a single currency on trade is large andrew rose

property taxation as incentive for cost control empirical evidence for utility services in norway recent theoretical research suggests that property taxation has incentive effects that can help control cost problems in the public sector the institutional setting in norway allows this first empirical investigation of the incentive effect of property taxation since we can separate between local governments with and without property tax the raw data of the variation in the unit cost level for utilities show that local governments with property tax have about 20 lower unit cost using both linear regression and propensity score matching we are not able to wash out the difference in unit costs our interpretation is that having a visible and controversial local tax related to property stimulates voter interest in local government activities and thereby may help cost control the incentive effect is of interest for the design of fiscal federalism

scientific progress and irreversibility an economic interpretation of the precautionary principle abstract we consider the problem of the optimal use of a good whose consumption can produce damages in the future scientific progress is made over time that provides information on the distribution of the intensity of damages we show that this progress induces earlier prevention effort only if prudence is larger than twice absolute risk aversion this paper thus identifies the class of quite restrictive but plausible conditions such that scientific uncertainties justify an immediate reduction of the consumption of a potentially toxic substance

epstein zin utility in dice is risk aversion irrelevant to climate policy climate change involves uncertain probabilities of catastrophic risks and very longterm consequences of current actions climate economics therefore is centrally concerned with the treatment of risk and time yet conventional assumptions about utility and optimal economic growth create a perverse connection between risk aversion and time preference such that more aversion to current risks implies less concern for future outcomes and vice versa the same conflation of risk aversion and time preference leads to the equity premium puzzle in finance a promising response to the equity premium puzzle the recursive utility of epstein and zin allows separation of risk aversion and time preference at the cost of considerable analytic complexity we introduce an accessible implementation of epstein zin utility into the dice model of climate economics creating a hybrid ez dice model using epstein zin parameters from the finance literature and climate uncertainty parameters from the science literature we find that the optimal climate policy in ez dice calls for rapid abatement of carbon emissions it is similar to standard dice results with the discount rate set to equal the risk free rate of return ez dice solutions are sensitive to the intertemporal elasticity of substitution but remarkably insensitive to risk aversion insensitivity to risk aversion may reflect the difficulty of modeling catastrophic risks within dice implicit in dice are strong assumptions about the cost of climate stabilization and the certainty and speed of success under these assumptions risk aversion would in fact be unimportant a more realistic analysis will require a subtler treatment of catastrophic climate risk

specifications of social welfare in economic studies of climate policy overview of criteria and related policy insights an important assumption in economic studies of climate policy is the social welfare function this paper shows that applying distinct decision or social welfare criteria can result in different optimal policies of climate control notably if climate change impacts are uncertain first decision criteria in current climate economic studies are reviewed next the most important alternatives are discussed including their mathematical formalization and incorporation in economy climate models most of these alternative criteria suggest more stringent climate policies to be optimal than the standard discounted utilitarianism approach however several important welfare criteria have not or hardly seen any application in the economic analysis of climate policy we conclude that there is clear need for systematic research on this theme for which the current review provides a solid basis

a quantitative minimax regret approach to climate change does discounting still matter abstract using cost benefit analysis to determine an optimal climate mitigation target is criticised especially because i it fails to sufficiently take into account low probability high impact events and ii results strongly depend on the discount rate used one of the alternative suggestions to inform policymakers about the right mitigation target that does take the risks associated with low probability high impact events explicitly into account is the minimax regret criterion we apply the minimax regret criterion quantitatively using an integrated assessment model with extreme values for climate sensitivity damage estimates and mitigation costs the goal is to analyse whether such a method leads to different results compared to standard cost benefit analysis and whether the results are still sensitive to the discount rate used we find that the minimax regret approach leads to more stringent and robust climate targets for relatively low discount rates and if both a high climate sensitivity and high damage estimates are assumed if one of these assumptions does not hold the difference between the minimax regret approach and standard cost benefit analysis is much smaller therefore we conclude that the discount rate used can still be of vital importance even when applying a minimax regret approach

the hidden costs of nudging experimental evidence from reminders in fundraising abstract we document the hidden costs of a popular nudge and show how these costs distort policy making when neglected in a field experiment with a charity we find reminders increasing intended behavior donations but also increasing avoidance behavior unsubscriptions from the mailing list we develop a dynamic model of donation and unsubscription behavior with limited attention we test the model in a second field experiment which also provides evidence that the hidden costs are anticipated the model is estimated structurally to perform a welfare analysis not accounting for hidden costs overstates the welfare effects for donors by factor ten and hides potential negative welfare effects of the charity

income distribution and tax structure empirical test of the meltzer richard hypothesis abstract the meltzer richard hypothesis that more unequal income distribution will create a majority for more redistribution has generated much research but little empirical support the empirical literature has concentrated on cross country studies and the size of the public sector and the results broadly do not indicate more redistribution with more inequality this analysis suggests that the hypothesis should be investigated in a more homogenous setting with comparable institutions and with an explicit decision about redistribution here tax structure new data on poll tax and property tax in decentralized government in norway are exploited we show how the multi dimensional decision can be analyzed as majority rule assuming intermediate preferences in the econometric analysis instruments are used to account for endogeneity of income level and income distribution the estimated model supports the understanding that more unequal income distribution implies a shift in the tax burden from poll tax to property taxes and thereby gives more redistribution

intergenerational equity discounting and the role of cost benefit analysis in evaluating global climate policy when public policies with impacts far into the future are being debated the question inevitably is raised whether cost benefit analysis which discounts future costs and benefits is not biased against future generations and whether if such discounting is appropriate at all a lower rate should be used to avoid such bias the debate on global climate change is no exception this paper sketches and analyses the welfare foundations of cost benefit analysis and from this perspective analyses the role of cost benefit analysis in the climate policy debate particularly with reference to intergenerational effects the paper concludes that the cost benefit criterion cannot provide a definitive basis for deciding whether we should commit to a longer term programme to moderate climate change the issues of intergenerational equity are not that global climate change will significantly lower the gnp of future generations but relate to the possibility of science fiction like changes in the planet that will produce catastrophic effects in the future and the typical way in which the cost benefit problem is posed obscures the basic choices that we should be evaluating

tax decentralization and local government size this paper investigates the relationship between fiscal federalism and the sizes of local governments while many empirical studies emphasized that grants encourage the growth of local public spending and local taxes constrain it they are more silent regarding the effects of different types of tax autonomy the paper addresses this issue by arguing that tax decentralization as organized on tax bases used only by local governments tax separation rather than on tax base sharing would restrain local public expenditures using an unbalanced panel of oecd countries the key finding is that only property taxes mostly based on a tax separation scheme seem to favor smaller local governments thus while tax decentralization is a necessary condition for limiting the growth of local governments it does not appear sufficient as tax separation schemes among government levels would in fact be required

spite and development in a wide variety of settings spiteful preferences would constitute an obstacle to cooperation trade and thus economic development this paper shows that spiteful preferences the desire to reduce another s material payoff for the mere purpose of increasing one s relative payoff are surprisingly widespread in experiments conducted in one of the least developed regions in india uttar pradesh in a one shot trust game the authors find that a large majority of subjects punish cooperative behavior although such punishment clearly increases inequality and decreases the payoffs of both subjects in experiments to study coordination and to measure social preferences the findings reveal empirical patterns suggesting that the willingness to reduce another s material payoff either for the sake of achieving more equality or for the sake of being ahead is stronger among individuals belonging to high castes than among those belonging to low castes because extreme social hierarchies are typically accompanied by a culture that stresses status seeking it is plausible that the observed social preference patterns are at least partly shaped by this culture thus an exciting question for future research is the extent to which different institutions and cultures produce preferences that are conducive or detrimental to economic development

do constitutions cause large governments quasi experimental evidence abstract how do constitutional rules for elections and legislation affect the size of government we ask this question in a new sample of about 80 countries in the 1990s in addition to conventional regression methods we use quasi experimental matching methods which more convincingly address legitimate criticisms of causal inference from cross country data both sets of estimates suggest that presidential regimes and majoritarian elections produce smaller governments

a regional dynamic general equilibrium model of alternative climate change strategies outcomes and noncooperative equilibria this study finds that cooperative policies show much higher levels of emissions reductions than do noncooperative strategies that there are substantial differences in the levels of controls in both the cooperative and the noncooperative policies among different countries and that high income countries may be the major losers from cooperation jel h41 q4 q2 q20

a review of the stern review on the economics of climate change how much and how fast should we react to the threat of global warming the stern review argues that the damages from climate change are large and that nations should undertake sharp and immediate reductions in greenhouse gas emissions an examination of the review s radical revision of the economics of climate change finds however that it depends decisively on the assumption of a near zero time discount rate combined with a specific utility function the review s unambiguous conclusions about the need for extreme immediate action will not survive the substitution of assumptions that are consistent with today s marketplace real interest rates and savings rates

on modeling and interpreting the economics of catastrophic climate change with climate change as prototype example this paper analyzes the implications of structural uncertainty for the economics of low probability high impact catastrophes even when updated by bayesian learning uncertain structural parameters induce a critical tail fattening of posterior predictive distributions such fattened tails have strong im plications for situations like climate change where a catastrophe is theoretically possible because prior knowledge cannot place sufficiently narrow bounds on overall damages this paper shows that the economic consequences of fat tailed structural uncertainty along with unsureness about high temperature damages can readily outweigh the effects of discounting in climate change policy analysis

choice under partial uncertainty this paper analyzes problems of choice under uncertainty where a decisionmaker does not use subjective probabilities the decisionmaker has a set of beliefs about which states are more likely than others but his beliefs cannot be represented as subjective probabilities three main kinds of decision rules are possible in this framework these are maximin type maximax type and choosing that action that gives the highest payoff in the state which the decisionmaker believes to be most likely the author replaces the commonly used merger of states axiom with a version of the sure thing principle copyright 1993 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association