energy growth long term relationship under structural breaks evidence from canada 17 latin american economies and the usa abstract we study the relationship and the causal link between electric power consumption epc and gross domestic product gdp both per capita for 17 countries in latin america canada and the usa considering that many of these economies underwent important economic crises in the last three decades we therefore model the epc gdp relationship through a vec specification that allows for structural breaks along with a robust testing methodology of causal links based on the concepts of weak and super exogeneity rather than granger causality evidence favorable to the growth hypothesis epc gdp is found for eight countries while data of three countries support the conservation hypothesis gdp epc for three countries evidence is favorable to the neutrality hypothesis but should be considered with caution as for the remaining five countries the evidence is not conclusive

elements for the development of public policies in the residential sector of mexico based in the energy reform and the energy transition law abstract mexico has entered in an important dynamic of structural changes in the energy area proof of this it is the energy reform 2013 and the energy transition law published the last december 24th 2015 thus it is important to carry out studies of the impacts of future politics in the consumption of the population so this study estimate an energy demand system using microdata collected from 97 817 households in a national households income and expenditure survey enigh acronyms in spanish encuesta nacional de ingresos y gastos de los hogares in the 20 years period from 1994 to 2014 the magnitudes of all the fuels are smaller than one indicating that electricity lpg gasoline and public transport are normal goods while lpg is the most inelastic energy source the geographic factor shows that households in the north of mexico tend to consume more gasoline whereas in the south of the country the lowest share of lpg expenditure is reported the rigorous evaluation of energy demanded in households will help policy makers to put forward more efficient reforms

estimation on oil demand and oil saving potential of china s road transport sector national social science foundation of china 12zd059 ministry of education 10gbj013 national natural science foundation of china 71203186 fundamental research funds for the central universities 2010221051 national science foundation for disting

the welfare effects of energy price changes due to energy market reform in mexico abstract despite being a large energy producer and exporter mexico may soon become a net total energy importer due to a decline in oil reserves and increasing domestic consumption to increase efficiency in the energy market mexican authorities approved a constitutional amendment aiming to open the state run energy markets to competition in 2013 the reform is expected to raise efficiency and to lower energy prices in the long run however it will take some time for the new institutional arrangements to settle and the reform objectives to materialize the removal of subsidies which is expected to take place after the reform will also raise prices particularly in the short run in this paper we analyze the effect of likely energy price changes due to energy market reform on household consumption and welfare in different income groups we estimate the quaids model using the nonlinear sure method and the mexican household budget surveys for the period 2002 2012 to obtain elasticities the results show great heterogeneity in elasticities across energy types and income groups specifically energy demand is elastic with respect to income but changes in prices have mixed effects among energy types the welfare effect of the price changes on low income households will be 9 times stronger than that on the mid income households and 18 times on and the high income households this warrants a compensation package to make the reform socially acceptable

can poor consumers pay for energy and water an affordability analysis for transition countries low income households spend a substantial share of their income on utility services such as electricity heating and water the difficulty of these socially vulnerable consumers to absorb further price increases is often used as an argument against tariff reform however detailed quantitative information on the affordability of tariff adjustments for low income consumers is actually quite scarce much of the available information is based on households this paper takes a more detailed look at the affordability of electricity district heating and water for low income consumers in transition countries while the available data are incomplete the paper finds that affordability is a problem for low income consumers in most countries in particular in the water sector and in the commonwealth of independent states cis the affordability consequences of tariff reform ultimately depend on the speed of tariff adjustments relative to the growth in household income the level of tariffs needed for cost recovery the level of effective tariffs at the outset tariffs adjusted for non payment and the demand response to the tariff increase the paper finds that delaying tariff reform by a few years makes little difference to affordability constraints and may therefore not be an effective way to mitigate the social impact of utility reform

determinants of import demand for non renewable energy petroleum products empirical evidence from nigeria abstract this study estimated determinants of import demand for refined petroleum products in nigeria for the period 1984 2013 it employed the autoregressive distributed lag ardl bounds test cointegration method and analysed both long run and short run determinants of import demand for total and specific petroleum products in the long run aggregate and sectoral incomes are significant determinants of import of refined kerosene further real effective exchange rate reer aggregate income gdp manufacturing sector s income domestic energy production dep and population growth rate pgr are drivers of import of refined motor spirit moreover reer dep and manufacturing sector s income are propellers of import of refined distillate fuel also reer and total output of petroleum products are major drivers of total import of refined petroleum products short run results show that previous period gdp pgr and manufacturing and service sectors incomes are determinants of import demand for refined kerosene moreover reer gdp previous pgr and manufacturing sector s income exert significant effects on the import of refined motor spirit further significant effects of reer dep previous pgr domestic output of the product and manufacturing and service sectors incomes on the import demand for distillate fuel were found policy implications of the foregoing are articulated in the paper

short and long run demand for energy in mexico a cointegration approach abstract the objective of this paper is to estimate the demands for the different types of energy consumption for the mexican economy over the period 1965 2001 these demands are modeled as a function of output and the own real price the johansen j econ dynamics control 12 1988 231 procedure and the likelihood ratio tests indicate the existence of long run and stable relationships between each type of energy demand and income with the exception of the industrial sector where the cointegrating vector also includes the relative prices the weak exogeneity tests indicate that energy consumption and income do not reject the null hypothesis of weak exogeneity when relative prices are weak exogenous the final econometric models show that relative prices in the short run are relevant in all cases with the exception of the residential sector these results indicate that in mexico the demand for energy is fundamentally driven by income and that the effect of the relative prices is basically concentrated on the short run with the exception of the industrial sector which also shows a long term price impact the strong dependence of energy consumption with respect to income and the price inelastic response indicates that it is necessary to introduce strong measures to decouple energy consumption from output in order to obtain sustainable economic growth in mexico

objective vs subjective fuel poverty and self assessed health abstract identification of fuel poverty and its impact on individuals is a growing social issue classifying households using subjective measures of fuel poverty yields different results than when objective measures are used moreover there are assessment related difficulties in establishing the effects on health and wellbeing which hinders policy design to tackle this problem in this paper we propose a latent class ordered probit model to control for subjectivity when analysing the influence of fuel poverty on self reported health this methodology is applied to a sample of 25 000 individuals in 11 000 households for the 2011 2014 period in spain where 5 1 million people 11 of the population could not afford to heat their homes to an adequate temperature in 2014 the results show that poor housing conditions low income material deprivation and fuel poverty have a negative impact on health we also find that the effect of objective fuel poverty and other poverty related factors on health are stronger when we control for unobserved heterogeneity among individuals since objective measures alone may not fully capture the adverse effect of fuel poverty on health we advocate policy approaches that combine both objective and subjective measures and its application by policymakers

impacts of meat product recalls on consumer demand in the usa the impact of meat product recall events on consumer demand beef pork poultry and other consumption goods in the usa is tested empirically beef pork and poultry recall indices are constructed from both the food safety inspection service s meat recall events and from newspaper reports over the period 1982 1998 following previous product recall studies recall indices are incorporated as shift variables in consumers demand functions estimating an absolute price version of the rotterdam demand model findings indicate that food safety inspection service s meat recall events significantly impact demand and newspaper reports do not moreover although elasticities related to recall events are significant they are small in magnitude relative to price and income effects any favourable effects on the demands of meat substitutes for a recall are offset by a more general negative effect on meat demand the general negative effect indicates a shift out of meat to non meat consumption goods

factor demand and substitution in a developing country energy use in mexican manufacturing a translog cost function is used to estimate elasticities of substitution and factor demand in a number of mexican industries 1966 81 the results vary but factor demand is on average quite price sensitive and elasticities are of the same order of magnitude as in other studies for both developed and developing countries this indicates that factor demand does adapt to price changes even in countries which are dependent on buying technology abroad it also shows that a policy of heavy subsidies to domestic energy consumption is the main reason for growing energy intensity thereby casting some light on the allocation costs of such subsidies

can pay won t pay or economic principles of affordability the term afford ability has been gaining currency in housing policy debates but neither government nor academic researchers have given much consideration to defining it this paper considers what meanings have been given to the term affordability in practice and suggests a range of analytically more useful definitions it argues from economic first principles that it is more logical to use some form of residual income definition than one based on a prescribed ratio of housing costs to income most researchers have been using a ratio definition the paper then uses data from a household survey in the glasgow travel to work area in 1988 89 to examine the incidence of unaffordability of housing costs according to a variety of definitions

energy poverty policies in the eu a critical perspective abstract once confined to the uk context where it was struggling to receive political recognition for years the concept of energy or fuel poverty is slowly entering the eu s agenda where it has crept into a number of regulatory documents and policy proposals using evidence gathered from an international workshop and semi structured interviews with decision makers experts and advocacy activists in brussels and sofia this paper explores the adoption of policies aimed at addressing energy poverty within i the organisational context of the eu and ii national state institutions in bulgaria a member state facing considerable problems at the energy affordability social inequality nexus while the former are largely nascent and poorly co ordinated the latter have already been implemented de jure to a significant extent however many unresolved issues surrounding their de facto implementation remain at the same time national policy makers remain largely unaware of the existence of direct energy poverty related initiatives at the eu level

residential electricity demand dynamics in turkey abstract this article provides fresh empirical evidences for the income and price elasticies of the residential energy demand both in the short run and long run for turkey over the period 1968 2005 using the bounds testing procedure to cointegration the computed elasticities of income and price are consistent with the previous studies and as expected the long run elasticities are greater than the short run elasticities an augmented form of granger causality analysis is implemented among residential electricity income price and urbanization in the long run causality runs interactively through the error correction term from income price and urbanization to residential energy but the short run causality tests are inconclusive the parameter stability of the short run as well as long run coefficients in the residential energy demand function are tested the results of these tests display a stable pattern

estimating energy elasticity with structural changes in japan abstract the purpose of this paper is to estimate energy elasticity in japan taking into account structural changes we employ a residual based cointegration model developed by gregory and hansen gregory allan w hansen bruce e 1996 residual based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts journal of econometrics 70 99 126 the empirical results show that the three variables have a stable relationship in the long term when considering structural changes in the second quarter of 1993 as compared with the values obtained in previous studies the income elasticity is higher and the price elasticity is lower from our analysis we can confirm whether a carbon tax will meet the objective of the kyoto protocol in conclusion the tax rate required in the case without structural changes is lower than that in the case with structural changes

an analysis of gasoline demand elasticities at the national and local levels in mexico abstract the majority of evidence on gasoline demand elasticities is derived from models based on national data since the largest growth in population is now taking place in cities in the developing world it is important that we understand whether this national evidence is applicable to demand conditions at the local level the aim of this paper is to estimate and compare gasoline per vehicle demand elasticities at the national and local levels in mexico national elasticities with respect to price income vehicle stock and metro fares are estimated using both a time series cointegration model and a panel gmm model for mexican states estimates for mexico city are derived by modifying national estimates according to mode shares as suggested by graham and glaister 2006 and by estimating a panel within groups model with data aggregated by borough although all models agree on the sign of the elasticities the magnitudes differ greatly elasticities change over time and differ between the national and local levels with smaller price responses in mexico city in general price elasticities are smaller than those reported in the gasoline demand surveys a pattern previously found in developing countries the fact that income and vehicle stock elasticities increase over time may suggest that vehicles are being used more intensively in recent years and that mexico city residents are purchasing larger vehicles elasticities with respect to metro fares are negligible which suggests little substitution between modes finally the fact that fuel efficiency elasticities are smaller than vehicle stock elasticities suggests that vehicle stock size rather than its composition has a larger impact on gasoline consumption in mexico city

economic impact of ethanol promotion in mexico a general equilibrium analysis abstract in this paper we analyze the economic impact of a decision to produce ethanol in mexico comparing the effect of a subsidy to initiate ethanol production with that of alternative public policies public support of biofuels has been a public policy goal since 2008 and the promotion of ethanol remains an active part of the government agenda the evidence used to encourage or alter the policy is by necessity chiefly based on international experience in this study we use a computable general equilibrium model cge to estimate the impact of ethanol production on the mexican economy using cost data from brazil we introduce ethanol into a mexican social accounting matrix and insert a latent sector into the model to analyze ethanol promotion our results show that subsidies to ethanol would increase agriculture production but at the expense of aggregate welfare by contrast alternative clean energy policies appear to advance economic growth to a greater extent

a simple model for merit good arguments abstract in this paper we examine a way of representing merit goods by allowing governments to apply a specific form of correction to consumers preferences the model builds upon an approach to the analysis of taste and quality change due to fisher and shell we look at the first best allocation of resources where this is done we also consider second best policies in which the government must charge the same price to all consumers of the merit good and when optimal lump sum transfers are not available

the economic effect of the canadian bse outbreak on the us economy before the discovery of the first bovine spongiform encephalopathy bse cow in may 2003 canada was the most important exporter of live cattle into the us with a share of 74 of us total live cattle imports with the outbreak of bse in canada the us ceased imports of canadian cattle and beef products this study analyses the short to medium term effect of the import trade ban for the us economy using a 20 sector economy wide computable general equilibrium cge model uncertainty about exogenous elasticity values was addressed using monte carlo techniques beneficiaries of the trade ban are the cattle industry and related sectors such as feed production and agricultural service providers the us economy as a whole however is negatively affected with a loss of 1 7 billion in gross domestic product and 11000 jobs the model shows how the restriction on canadian cattle imports generates income losses for both rich and poor households in the us

energy models for demand forecasting a review abstract energy is vital for sustainable development of any nation be it social economic or environment in the past decade energy consumption has increased exponentially globally energy management is crucial for the future economic prosperity and environmental security energy is linked to industrial production agricultural output health access to water population education quality of life etc energy demand management is required for proper allocation of the available resources during the last decade several new techniques are being used for energy demand management to accurately predict the future energy needs in this paper an attempt is made to review the various energy demand forecasting models traditional methods such as time series regression econometric arima as well as soft computing techniques such as fuzzy logic genetic algorithm and neural networks are being extensively used for demand side management support vector regression ant colony and particle swarm optimization are new techniques being adopted for energy demand forecasting bottom up models such as markal and leap are also being used at the national and regional level for energy demand management

is energy consumption per capita broken stationary new evidence from regional based panels abstract for the first time a new panel unit root testing procedure developed by 51 carrion i silvestre et al 2005 breaking the panels an application to gdp per capita econometrics journal 8 159 175 is applied to re investigate the stationarity of energy consumption per capita for 7 regional panel sets covering the 1971 2002 period with structural breaks and cross sectional correlations introduced into the model it becomes clear that all regional based panels of energy consumption per capita are stationary the structural breakpoints identify the likely causes of major changes in energy consumption in the past the findings underscore the importance of accounting for exogenous shocks to a series and offer several important implications for policy makers and energy economists

objective and subjective measures of fuel poverty as energy prices continue to rise to reflect the real cost of carbon the numbers of households in fuel poverty is increasing rapidly this paper uses a unique data set to explore one alternative measure of fuel poverty based on whether consumers feel able to afford their energy similar to one introduced by the government a few years ago we explore the links between an expenditure based and our subjective measure of fuel poverty and compare these differences with those between official measures amongst low income households 28 spent more than a tenth of their income on energy in the home and so would be likely to qualify as fuel poor under the most usual definition but only 16 felt unable to afford sufficient energy to keep their homes warm amongst this group who felt they had difficulty in affording sufficient energy less than half were expenditure fuel poor the paper argues that reintroduction of a self reported measure by the government would be a valuable aid to policy development

electricity demand in tunisia this paper examines the global electricity demand in tunisia as a function of gross domestic product in constant price the degree of urbanization the average annual temperature and the real electricity price per kwh this demand will be examined employing annual data over a period spanning almost thirty one years from 1976 to 2006 a long run relationship between the variables under consideration is determined using the vector autoregressive regression the empirical results suggest that the electricity demand in tunisia is sensitive to its past value any changes in gross domestic product and electricity price the electricity price effects have a negative impact on long run electricity consumption however the gross domestic product and the past value of electricity consumption have a positive effect moreover the causality test reveals a unidirectional relationship between price and electricity consumption our empirical findings are effective to policy makers to maintain the electricity consumption in tunisia by using the appropriate strategy

agricultural trade distortions during the global financial crisis the authors are grateful for financial support from the australian research council rural industries research and development corporation and world bank

oil and international energy this article focuses on issues surrounding international oil markets within the wider context of international energy the global economy and conflicting agendas such as energy security and climate change it is suggested that important aspects of the current situation appear unsustainable increasing uncertainty and raising methodological difficulties for any assessment of likely future developments it is argued that the dynamics of oil prices during the 2002 9 cycle reflected great uncertainty about future fundamentals as well as the absence of previously anticipated stabilizing feedbacks from supply from demand or from policy it is suggested that damaging oil price swings could be moderated by better policy though probably not by financial regulation in the longer term the uncertainties remain very great especially since the tensions between a realist view of likely energy market developments and the imperatives of the climate change agenda remain unresolved a wide range of policies in producer and consumer countries are likely to affect not only oil prices but also the contentious issue of the distribution of rents within the industry copyright 2011 oxford university press

an analysis of the global oil market using svarma models the paper analyses the importance of supply versus demand shocks on the global oil market from 1974 to 2017 using a parsimonious structural vector autoregressive moving average svarma model the superior out of sample forecasting performance of the reduced form varma compared to var alternatives advocates the suitability of this framework we specifically account for the changes in the oil market over three distinctive sub periods pre moderation great moderation and post moderation periods to provide a means of identifying the changing nature of shock transmission mechanism across times the findings shed some light on the effects of supply versus demand related oil shocks under different economic environment oil supply shocks explain large fraction of the movements in the global oil market in the pre and post moderation periods i e during the slower economic growth periods the importance of global activity shock on oil price movements is obvious during the 2003 2008 boom period the oil specific shock has an interesting transmission path on the global economic activity where the global activity responded positively and negatively during the global economic expansion and contraction respectively emphasising the precautionary nature of the shock

towards an accurate description of affordability this paper draws upon the poverty literature and examines the desirable properties of a descriptive statistic of affordability namely that it should satisfy three axioms monotonicity transfer and transfer sensitivity the descriptive statistics of headcounts and averages do not satisfy these three axioms and policies using these statistics as allocative tools may be misallocating resources the paper advocates the use of a foster greer thorbecke statistic fgt examples of different hypothetical households are used to show the contradictory results that can be obtained by using the current statistics as a case study the paper compares regional affordability rankings in england by looking at the fgt headcount and mean values of the rent income ratio using the 1995 96 existing tenants survey

review of key international demand elasticities for major industrializing economies abstract this paper conducts a selective review of various estimates for energy demand responses focused specially upon lower income industrializing economies rather than richer mature nations it emphasizes recent trends from empirical studies that have been published after 2000 emphasis is placed on the five major emerging or transitional economies in brazil china india mexico and russia although other important nations like chile and south korea are also discussed when studies are available the review focuses attention on the long run responses to changes in prices and income after capital stock turnover has been completed the terminology often refers to elasticities or the percentage change in energy use divided by the percentage change in price or income holding constant all other factors that could influence energy use decisions estimates cover petroleum products natural gas and electricity although the available studies often ignore coal they also include the economy wide impacts real gdp to price changes most studies have focused upon household and transportation use of liquid fuels many fewer studies have investigated fuels used by industry or commerce or for electric generation based upon the available estimates price and income elasticities for liquid fuels are generally less than one unity for many countries and sectors except for the long run income effect for transportation purposes which can range widely by country between 0 24 and 1 75 while averaging 0 94 for all countries

from targeting to implementation the role of identification of fuel poor households this paper proposes to evaluate the efficiency of fuel poverty policies by looking at them as a three step process these steps are policy targeting identification of households and implementation of measures each of these steps are costly and can face feasibility problems this is particularly true in the case of fuel poverty policies because of the multidimensional aspect of fuel poverty therefore public policies in that field are necessarily imperfect and this should be taken into account in the analysis of policies this three step framework is applied to the french fuel poverty policy which has been developed in 2010 as its practical modalities of implementation are still under discussion we mainly discuss the choices made in terms of targeting and highlight the role of identification of fuel poor households as a key factor for the success of that policy the general idea behind this discussion is that the efficiency of such policies has to be viewed in a comprehensive way which includes the three policy steps

electricity demand and conservation potential in the chinese nonmetallic mineral products industry newhuadu business school research fund ministry of education foundation 10jzd0018 10jbg013 china sustainable energy program g 1103 13921 national social science foundation 09zd050

the effect of liberalizing uk retail energy markets on consumers this paper describes the evolution of supply competition in the uk residential energy market and the extent to which consumers in general and vulnerable households in particular have benefited from liberalization it concludes that earlier fears about higher prices for vulnerable groups from tariff rebalancing have not so far been realized however in assessing the extent to which suppliers may be able to exploit individual or joint market power increasing concentration in the downstream market may result in adverse effects on all consumers especially low income households this poses a threat to the government s programme to reduce fuel poverty particularly at a time when upstream costs are expected to rise to reflect environmental concerns copyright 2005 oxford university press

evidence of asymmetric behavioral responses to changes in gasoline prices and taxes for different fuel types abstract using monthly data from the spanish gasoline retail market we explore asymmetries in consumers behavioral responses to changes in gasoline prices and taxes in particular we are interested in investigating whether an increase in gasoline taxes has a more negative impact on the demand than a similar in magnitude increase in the pre tax price of gasoline for different fuel types we estimate fuel consumers responses using a rich set of robust panel data models considering potential dynamic effects and endogeneity problems we find evidence to confirm the existence of asymmetric responses for the demand of unleaded fuels and agricultural diesel fuel however we cannot support this statement for the regular diesel case for this fuel both the tax exclusive price and the tax elasticities are roughly the same this result agrees with the fact that diesel drivers tend to be better informed about changes in both fuel prices and taxes some implications in terms of fiscal policy and pollution and climate change policy are also discussed

a new measure of italian hidden energy poverty abstract as highlighted by european policymakers and academic research the global economic crisis of 2008 emphasized the energy poverty phenomenon a number of households have had to considerably reduce their energy expenditure but the traditional criteria adopted to calculate energy poverty are not able to measure their number placed in this framework the paper aims to define a new measure of hidden energy poverty suitable to identify which italian households restrain their energy consumption due to their inability to afford energy services a review of the available energy poverty metrics supports the definition of a new indicator that is able to include hidden energy poor consumers considering some key peculiarities such as the poor energy efficiency of buildings the poverty situation low energy consumption and sensitivity to the climate using data from the household budget survey provided by the italian national institute of statistics in 2018 the newly identified indicator supports the assessment of the percentage of italian households in hidden energy poverty and supplies useful insight to policymakers in their effort to support vulnerable consumers

inequality in the distribution of expense allocated to the main energy fuels for mexican households 1968 2006 abstract energy is a decisive and essential factor to provide quality of life technological development related to its use and an economic development overview of a given country this essay presents the expense distribution allocated to the main fuel sources used at mexican households the essay herein was carried out for the 1968 2006 period the main purpose of this essay is to determine the expense allocation of the main energy fuels electricity gas firewood kerosene gasoline the methodology used in this essay is based on the lorenz curves and gini coefficient

transport and energy demand in mexico the personal income shock abstract the paper examines the impact on gasoline demand in mexico that may arise from the identified surge in number of private vehicles that occurs in developing countries when a certain income per capita is reached insofar as the country s gdp capita in the year 2000 is extremely close to the threshold value rapid automobile growth scenarios corresponding to different economic growth rates are compared with a business as usual one to exhibit the corresponding surge in gasoline demand to be expected from this personal income shock its occurrence requires to reassess not only the current energy supply policies but also the environmental ones

energy affordability and the benefits system in italy abstract in this paper we discuss a number of ways to define and measure the affordability of energy consumption and we examine the emergence of energy poverty in italy in the period from 1998 to 2011 the paper examines the eligibility criteria for claiming the benefits available to support energy consumption for vulnerable families and it identifies the potential beneficiaries the study assesses the appropriateness of the eligibility criteria by comparing the population targeted by the policy with the population actually facing affordability problems a simulation exercise using the hypothetical scenario most likely to result in energy benefits being made available shows that regardless of the affordability index adopted the provision of state energy benefits has little impact on fuel poverty

the economic impact of bse a regional perspective a regional input output model detailing agriculture and its ancillary sectors is used to quantify the effects of a bse induced reduction in final demand for beef on the economy of northern ireland a region with heavy dependence on beef exports the long run regional output income and employment effects are estimated assuming no market stabilization measures and taking account of substitution effects in final demand predicted net losses in regional income are 0 5 of regional gdp with job losses of up to 0 6 of regional employment about 77 of the income losses and 87 of the job losses are in the beef sector primarily beef production compensating gains due to demand substitution effects occur mainly in meat processing sectors other than beef and are relatively small adverse intra regional distributional effects are likely due to the concentration of beef production in the more disadvantaged areas the importance of appropriate policy responses is highlighted

forecasting energy consumption and energy related co2 emissions in greece an evaluation of the consequences of the community support framework ii and natural gas penetration abstract this study seeks to assess the future demand for energy and the trajectory of co2 emissions level in greece taking into account the impact of the community support framework csf ii on the development process and the penetration of natural gas which is one of the major csf ii interventions in the energy system demand equations for each sector of economic activity traded non traded public and agricultural sector and for each type of energy oil electricity and solid fuels are derived the energy system is integrated into a fully developed macroeconometric model so that all interactions between energy prices and production factors are properly taken into account energy co2 forecasts are then derived based on alternative scenarios for the prospects of the greek economy according to the main findings of the paper the growth pattern of forecast total energy consumption closely follows that of forecast output showing no signs of decoupling as regards co2 emissions they are expected to increase with an annual average rate which is higher than world forecasts

energy demand in greece abstract this paper examines the impact of the two energy crises 1973 74 and 1978 79 on energy demand in greece initially some specific characteristics of energy consumption patterns before and after 1973 are presented and compared then demand parameters for hydroelectric energy liquid fuels and solid fuels were estimated using data for the period 1963 1984 and alternative econometric methods ols 2sls fiml to ensure that estimates do not vary across different estimation methods appropriate tests were used to examine whether a structural change in energy demand has occured following either of the two crises the results indicate that while consumption patterns may be different due to price and income changes after the crises the parameters of energy demand in greece have remained unchanged

energy demand substitution and environmental taxation an econometric analysis of eight subsectors of the danish economy abstract this research contains an econometric analysis of energy demand in trade and industry which allows for substitution between electricity and other energy carriers when relative prices change the presence of substitution suggests that taxation can be a means of changing the energy input mix in a more environmental friendly direction for eight subsectors of the danish economy time series 1966 2011 are modeled by means of partial cointegrated vars long run demand relations are identified for all subsectors and robust price elasticities are supported in five cases the results are used in a small impulse response experiment which suggests a potential for taxation to induce substitution of electricity for fossil based energy

the oil trading markets 2003 10 analysis of market behaviour and possible policy responses this paper considers price movements in the oil markets between 2003 and 2010 and seeks to explain the significant trends in this period it notes that the oil market is by its very nature inherently volatile because of the nature of oil as a storable and exhaustible resource and the influence of geopolitical factors on price it concludes that fundamentals continue to anchor the market but that speculative investment flows may bring about temporary departures from equilibrium it is proposed that the type of volatility that matters most macroeconomically is medium term price trends the paper then discusses possible policy actions that could prevent or mitigate such trends concluding that proposals solely related to the operation of the financial markets will not address the fundamental drivers of instability it may however be useful to consider policies aimed at stabilizing the market but these must be rooted in developed consumer producer dialogue copyright 2011 oxford university press

ex post welfare economics and the theory of merit goods in recent years a number of papers have questioned the extension of the main theorems of welfare economics to a world of uncertainty stemming from the work of arrow 1953 and debreu 1959 the arrow debreu extension is based on the idea that consumer preferences may be defined on state contingent commodities as a special but important case these preferences may be represented by von neumann morgenstern utilities with this interpretation of the commodity space the main theorems of weltare economics remain valid in a world of uncertainty a competitive equilibrium is a pareto optimum a pareto optimum can be sustained as a competitive equilibrium and the diagnosis of the causes of market failure remains as before there are several reasons why one may feel uneasy about this construction a good deal of attention has been paid to the assumption of universality of markets necessary to establish the connection between equilibrium and optimum on a deeper level perhaps are the doubts that one may have about the criterion of welfare or efficiency first should social welfare be a function of individuals expected utilities or should the appropriate concept be that of expected welfare second if probability beliefs are not identical across individuals whose probabilities if any should be used for welfare evaluation in the next section we review some concepts and results in the recent literature on ex post welfare economics and in section ii it is argued that this literature can provide the foundations for a more satisfactory theory of merit goods a concept originally introduced by musgrave 1959 this idea is applied in section iii to a model with a complete set of markets in the arrow debreu sense and in sections iv and v to an incomplete markets model which provides the most natural framework for the study of merit goods various remarks on further aspects of the problem are collected in the concluding section of the paper

electricity demand elasticities and temperature evidence from panel smooth transition regression with instrumental variable approach abstract this study applies a non linear model i e the recently developed panel smooth transition regression pstr model and takes into account the potential endogeneity biases to investigate the demand function of electricity for 24 oecd countries from the period 1978 2004 our empirical results demonstrate that there is a strongly non linear link among electricity consumption real income electricity price and temperature a result that is new to the literature as real income rises electricity consumption rapidly increases first and after the level of real income exceeds approximately us 2500 its increasing rate turns slow down an increase in electricity price has a negative or no influence on electricity consumption evidence of a u shaped relationship between electricity consumption and temperature is supported and the threshold value of temperature is approximately 53 f which is endogenously determined furthermore the estimated elasticities of time dynamic indicate that electricity demand is income inelastic price inelastic and temperature inelastic as time goes on the absolute elasticities of electricity demand gradually decrease with respect to real gdp and electricity price whereas they gradually increase with respect to temperature suggesting that the impact of temperature on electricity demand is becoming more important in recent years

cge assumptions under scrutiny uncertainty in the ethanol promotion policy in mexico abstractbased on a cge exercise of a subsidy to initiate ethanol production in mexico we use monte carlo simulations for consumer demand elasticities and ethanol cost estimates the analysis provi

a co integration analysis of the price and income elasticities of energy demand in turkish agriculture abstract agriculture has an important role in every country s development particularly the contribution of agriculture to development and competitiveness is increasing with agricultural productivity growth productivity in turn is closely associated with direct and indirect use of energy as an input therefore the importance of energy in agriculture cannot be denied as one of the basic inputs to the economic growth process following the importance of energy in turkish agriculture this study aims to estimate the long and short run relationship of energy consumption agricultural gdp and energy prices via co integration and error correction ecm analysis annual data from 1970 to 2008 for diesel and electricity consumptions are utilized to estimate long run and short run elasticities according to ecm analysis for the diesel demand model the long run income and price elasticities were calculated as 1 47 and 0 38 respectively for the electricity demand model income and price elasticities were calculated at 0 19 and 0 72 respectively in the long run briefly in turkey support for energy use in agriculture should be continued in order to ensure sustainability in agriculture increase competitiveness in international markets and balance farmers income