informational content of government hogs and pigs reports we examine the value of the informational content of quarterly government reports which estimate forthcoming supplies of hogs and pigs it is assumed that a hypothetical futures trader obtains the government reports one day in advance of their release a futures market trading rule is established which uses early access to the reports together with a priori expectations of the reports contents we find the market information in the government reports is of little or no value to a futures trader in advance of the release date because this information is already incorporated in the futures price

a nonparametric cost approach to scale efficiency starting with farrell fieldhouse 1962 a host of notiparametric models have been developed for calculation of scale efficiency a common property of these models is that they are specified in terms of input output data duality theory has taught us that technological characteristics may be analyzed from either the primal or the dual cost side the purpose of this paper is to introduce a nonparametric dual method of calculating scale efficiency

equivalence and implementation of alternative methods for determining returns to scale in data envelopment analysis abstract this paper discusses alternative methods for determining returns to scale in dea the methods for estimating returns to scale in dea as developed by banker 1984 banker charnes and cooper 1984 and banker and thrall 1992 are proved to be conceptually equivalent to the two stage methods of fare grosskopf and lovell 1985 when their assumptions apply here the emphasis is on the ccr model of dea and very simple methods are introduced for determining returns to scale locally with this model by reference to banker s concept of most productive scale size

one sided elasticities and technical efficiency in multi output production a theoretical framework one of the concepts that have sparked considerable interest in the theory of production and efficiency is that of returns to scale rts economics researchers typically define rts using the notion of elasticity considerable research activity on rts has also been observed by management science researchers who utilize the methodology of data envelopment analysis dea to gain insights on rts in this paper we present a theoretical framework that integrates existing economics and management science literature on rts and provides a solid foundation for research work in this area our framework defines discusses and proposes an approach to measure input and output oriented elasticities and one sided rts we demonstrate how the work done in dea is a special case of our framework and discuss the conditions under which the resulting two left hand and the two right hand elasticities can be equal future research directions are also discussed

live cattle futures response to cattle on feed reports knight ridder surveys provide prerelease expectations of the information in the cattle on feed reports the knight ridder information is employed here in accordance with the efficient markets hypothesis to identify the unanticipated information provided in cattle on feed reports rational expectations theory is used to test knight ridder forecasts for unbiasedness efficiency and forecast performance the forecasts mostly satisfy rationality conditions live cattle futures prices respond to unanticipated information about placements and marketings contained in cattle on feed releases however report information is absorbed quickly

commercial branch performance evaluation and results communication in a canadian bank a dea application abstract in this paper we focus on evaluating the performance of the commercial branches of a large canadian bank using data envelopment analysis two production models are considered in this country wide evaluation one model looking directly at resource usage is most useful to the branch manager the other model incorporating financial results is more geared towards senior management we introduce non discretionary factors to reflect specific aspects of the environment a branch is operating in such as risk and economic growth rate of the region both input and output multipliers are constrained by incorporating market prices as well as managerial preferences in order to get effectiveness measures the cost minimisation study led to valuable results pertaining to the performance of individual branches notable is the methodology introduced here that shows how to present graphical and numeric outcomes to managers gap maps pie charts and target tables are produced for each branch to provide performance goals for the managers useful information has also been obtained at the district level output oriented models were analysed to reflect the bank s recent emphasis towards growth in some areas

the structure of technical efficiency it is common practice to decompose measures of efficiency into component measures of technical and allocative efficiency in this paper we show how and why to decompose a general measure of technical efficiency into component measures of purely technical efficiency congestion and scale efficiency and we investigate the properties of each measure we do so for a multiple output technology which satisfies a weak axiom system that does not include either constant returns to scale or strong input disposability

measuring efficiencies and returns to scale of nippon telegraph telephone in production and cost analyses this article provides a theoretical framework related to data envelopment analysis dea in which an analytical relationship among eight different efficiency concepts is defined and explored in terms of production and cost analyses this article extends the theoretical basis into the measurement of scale economies se and returns to scale rts a unique feature of the se rts measurement is that the proposed approach is based upon the measurement regarding not only production activity but also cost performance as an important case study this article applies the dea based approach to measure the eight efficiency concepts and se rts of nippon telegraph telephone ntt this study finds that ntt has maintained high se and increasing rts in the operations of 39 annual periods from 1953 through 1992

tariff structure of japanese electric power companies an empirical analysis using dea this research explores a marginal cost mc based pricing system using data envelopment analysis dea this dea technique is widely applied for performance analysis and efficiency measurement in public and private sectors this article does not follow such a previous research direction rather directing itself towards the new measurement of mc and ramsey prices of multiple electric power services as an important case study this research applies the proposed dea approach to examine how much the current tariffs of japanese electric power services deviate from these mc and ramsey prices this type of research has never been explored in japan even though such a research effort is needed by many policy makers and consumers it is hoped that our empirical findings can serve as a policy making basis for guiding the japanese electric power industry this study believes that this japanese experience is useful for other nations such as asia pacific countries where many public industries are regulated by their governments

dea environmental assessment on u s industrial sectors investment for improvement in operational and environmental performance to attain corporate sustainability abstract environmental assessment has recently become an important business concern because consumers are interested in environmental protection they try to avoid purchasing products from dirt imaged companies which do not pay attention to environmental protection even if their prices are much less than the ones produced by green imaged companies thus a green image is very important for corporate survivability in a global market this study considers corporate sustainability indicating that companies need to consider both economic prosperity and pollution prevention in their operations to discuss the issue from corporate strategy for modern business this study discusses a use of data envelopment analysis dea for environmental assessment by focusing upon research and development r d strategy as well as technology innovation and selection for reduction of undesirable outputs e g co 2 emission this type of research has never been explored in previous studies it is easily envisioned that the proposed dea environmental assessment will guide corporate leaders in identifying how to invest for technology innovation to reduce an amount of undesirable outputs to discuss the practicality this study applies the proposed approach to 153 observations on s p 500 corporations in 2012 and 2013 the empirical investigation confirms that investors pay more serious attention to company s green image and the reality for a long run sustainability than profitability in a short run concern furthermore the energy sector is the best investment target among seven industrial sectors examined in this study the measurement of corporate sustainability can serve as an empirical basis in selecting what type of technology is fitted for a specific industry

supply fundamentals and grain futures price movements a long standing puzzle in commodity markets is the low explanatory power of supply and demand fundamentals for explaining the variability of prices in these markets we apply an instrumental variable correction for measurement errors to investigate how noise in the surprise component of usda crop production reports affects estimated price responses in corn soybeans and wheat futures markets from 1970 to 2016 our findings demonstrate that after correcting for measurement error in market surprises the explanatory power of our models increases about threefold and often exceeds 70 this is compelling evidence that fundamental supply news play an important role in explaining grain futures price movements

stock prices and economic news this paper examines the daily response of stock prices to announcements about the money supply inflation real economic activity and the discountrate except for the discount rate survey data on market participants expectations of these announcements are used to identify the unexpected component of the announcements in order to test the efficient markets hypothesis that only the unexpected part of any announcement the surprise moves stock prices the empirical results support this hypothesis and indicate further that surprises related to monetary policy significantly affect stock prices there is only limited evidence of an impact from inflation surprises and no evidence of an impact from real activity surprises on the announcement days there is also only weak evidence of stock price responses to surprises beyond the announcement day this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

the effects of macroeconomic announcements on commodity prices this article analyzes the immediate reaction of a representative sample of commodity prices and two t bill yields to the unanticipated components of thirteen macroeconomic announcements surprises in the monetary variables cause the majority of the significant commodity price responses while these plus other cyclical surprises such as the unemployment rate cause significant lumber and t bill reactions the results provide strong support for the policy anticipations hypothesis and against the inflationary expectations hypothesis i e that monetary surprises cause changes in real interest rates rather than in nominal rates only as the inflationary expectations hypothesis contends

dea duality on returns to scale rts in production and cost analyses an occurrence of multiple solutions and differences between production based and cost based rts estimates this article discusses the concept of rts returns to scale in the framework of dea data envelopment analysis production and cost analyses focusing on an occurrence of multiple solutions and how to deal with such a difficulty dual relationships between production based and cost based rts estimates are also theoretically discussed in this study

an investment model of natural resource markets over the last decade there has been an increasing interest in natural resource economics to some extent this can be ascribed to a general concern with the environment but an important cause was the large price increases for resources in the early 1970s the observed price jumps can be understood as a belated recognition of the scarcity of resources but they can also be viewed as shortor medium term phenomena arising from demand shocks and in the case of petroleum cartelization in markets with slow supply responses a jump in demand or a drop in foreign supplies would result in a sharp immediate price increase even in the absence of any long term resource scarcity the purpose of the present analysis is to try and assess the absolute and relative importance of these two potentially distinctive features of resource markets depletability and slow supply adjustment most of the empirical analysis in the literature examines resource markets from the hotelling 1939 asset market perspective by comparing observed price paths to the equilibrium price path in its simplest form the hotelling model leads to the rule of equality between interest rates and rates of resource price growth however the seminal empirical study by barnett and morse 1963 was not supportive of the hotelling rule and later studies by heal and barrow 1980 1981 smith 1981 and feige and geweke 1979 have provided only limited support the current study provides an alternative approach to testing for depletability in a formulation that also allows for consideration of the inelasticity of supply in the short and intermediate term we do this by concentrating upon the production side of the market and using an adjustment cost1 or investment model of resource production the resulting model seems fairly successful in describing the behaviour of at least three of the metals considered with evidence for both the adjustment cost hypothesis and for depletability there is however also evidence for a technological progress effect that has in the past outweighed the depletability effect and can explain the failure of resource prices to follow the hotelling path section i of the paper develops the adjustment cost model and section ii presents the empirical analysis section iii considers the policy implications of the depletability and adjustment factors

estimating most productive scale size using data envelopment analysis abstract the relation between the most productive scale size mpss for paparticular input and output mixes and returns to scale for multiple inputs multiple outputs situations is explicitly developed this relation is then employed to extend the applications of data envelopment analysis dea introduced by charnes cooper and rhodes ccr to the estimation of most productive scale sizes for convex production possibility sets it is then shown that in addition to productive inefficiencies at the actual scale size the ccr efficiency measure also reflects any inefficiencies due to divergence from the most productive scale size two illustrations of the practical applications of these results to the estimation of most productive scale sizes and returns to scale for hospitals and stem electric generation plants are also provided emphasize the advantage of this method in examining specific segments of the efficient production surface

data envelopment analysis on a relaxed set of assumptions data envelopment analysis is a procedure for evaluation of the relative efficiency of units in a production system dea involves construction of composite units as convex combinations of other units inputs and outputs under various conditions related to returns to scale the assumption of convexity is inconsistent with increasing returns to scale and not implied by constant or non increasing returns to scale an alternative dea approach which does not invoke the assumption of a convex production possibility set is developed in this paper it is implemented in two stages stage one is concerned with the spanning of isoquants and stage two with an evaluation of the position of an observed input output combination compared to the isoquants both stages involve linear programming techniques solely

static efficiency decompositions and capacity utilisation integrating economic and technical capacity notions starting from existing static decompositions of overall economic efficiency on nonparametric production and cost frontiers this article proposes more comprehensive decompositions including several cost based notions of capacity utilization furthermore in case prices are lacking we develop additional decompositions of overall technical efficiency integrating a technical concept of capacity utilization these new efficiency decompositions provide a link between short and long run economic analysis and in empirical work avoid conflating inefficiency and differences in capacity utilization an empirical analysis using a monthly panel of chilean hydro electric power plants illustrates the potential of these decomposition proposals

divestiture of nippon telegraph and telephone this article discusses whether the japanese government should break up ntt nippon telegraph telephone in 1995 as the u s federal government compelled at t american telephone telegram to break itself into toll and local telephone companies in 1984 the divestiture of ntt has long been a major industrial policy issue in japan since the common carrier was privatized in 1985 the governmental decision to divest it may influence not only the japanese telecommunications infrastructure but also the global telecommunications and information industries in the world where many common carriers are now facing an environmental change from regulation to competition a unique feature of this study is that it employs eight different estimation techniques to obtain a cost function of ntt so that this research avoids a methodological bias occurring in many empirical studies this study confirms that ntt has maintained cost subadditivity but it has failed to establish the status of a natural monopoly in the observed time period however it also finds that the ntt divestiture will not produce a price reducing benefit to japanese telecommunications consumers this research result will serve as empirical evidence for guiding the governmental review of this large scale industrial policy issue in japan

returns to scale and damages to scale under natural and managerial disposability strategy efficiency and competitiveness of petroleum firms environmental assessment recently becomes a major policy issue all over the world this study discusses how to use data environment analysis dea for environmental assessment for planning corporate strategy and international competitiveness an important feature of dea environmental assessment is that it classifies outputs into desirable good and undesirable bad outputs because all private and public entities produce not only desirable outputs but also undesirable outputs as a result of their production activities this study proposes the two types of output unification for dea environmental assessment by using a non radial model one of the two output unifications is that it considers a decrease in an input vector along with a decrease in the vector of undesirable outputs this type of unification is referred to as natural disposability the other unification considers an increase in an input vector but a decrease in the vector of undesirable outputs this type of strategy is referred to as managerial disposability both unifications increase the vector of desirable outputs after developing the two concepts on disposability this study theoretically explores how to measure returns to scale rts under natural disposability and damages to scale dts under managerial disposability to document the practicality of the proposed approach this study applies it to compare the performance of national oil firms with that of international oil companies this study identifies four important findings on the petroleum industry first national oil companies outperform international oil companies in the unified efficiency under natural disposability second international oil companies outperform national oil companies in the unified efficiency under managerial disposability third national oil firms exhibit a mixed result on rts while international oil firms exhibit decreasing rts finally both national and international oil companies exhibit increasing dts implying that all oil firms need to decrease their operational sizes for improving their environmental performance on co2 emission as an alternative strategy the result suggests that they need to introduce technology innovation e g clean air technology into their business operations the technology based strategy has more practicality than the size reduction in their operations

estimating returns to scale in dea this paper addresses issues of returns to scale in data envelopment analysis starting with the model developed by banker but avoiding banker s conclusions on returns to scale the paper shows how two close variants inputs and outputs oriented of the banker charnes cooper model can be used to provide precise estimates of returns to scale the estimation of returns to scale for each unit is done by testing the existence of solutions in four regions defined in the neighborhood of the analyzed unit numerical examples and graphs are used to illustrate the proposed procedures

a note on returns to scale in dea abstract this brief note adds computational convenience and efficiency to the article by banker and thrall on returns to scale in dea by modifying one of their suggestions to avoid the need for examining all alternate optima in order to reach a decision

quantifying the wasde announcement effect this article uses a two stage gls model to quantify the world agricultural supply and demand estimates wasde announcement effect for cotton soybeans and hard winter wheat controlling for important factors associated with commodity price volatility the information presented by the overlapping nature of futures contracts is exploited to estimate conditional effects by month inventory conditions and delivery horizon results in this article show that the wasde announcement effect persists across contract positions is not limited to months that include nass crop survey data is amplified during low carryover periods for soybeans and wheat and is rapidly incorporated into futures prices

dea environmental assessment in time horizon radial approach for malmquist index measurement on petroleum companies abstract the climate change and various pollutions have been influencing our societies and economies the environmental assessment to be discussed in this study is increasingly important because it serves as an initial step toward pollution prevention corporate leaders policy makers researchers and individuals who are interested in environmental protection have been paying attention to the assessment so that they can prepare policy suggestions on the global warming and climate change as a methodology for the assessment this study proposes a use of data environment analysis dea in a time horizon most of data sets on the climate change are sampled in a time series where the performance of organizations fluctuates every moment in applying the dea environmental assessment to such a data set it is necessary for us to classify outputs into desirable e g oil production and undesirable e g co 2 emission categories because all organizations usually produce not only desirable but also undesirable outputs as a result of their economic activities to unify the two different types of outputs this study incorporates the concept of natural and managerial disposability into the computational framework of dea and extends them into a time horizon for the research purpose this study incorporates malmquist index into the proposed dea environmental assessment to examine an occurrence of a frontier shift among multiple periods the frontier shift indicates a technology progress and or managerial innovation during an observed period the index is further separated into four subcomponents in a time horizon these subcomponents are differently expressed under the natural and managerial disposability thus eight different subcomponents on the malmquist index are proposed to measure the frontier shift as an application this study uses the proposed dea approach to examine whether the frontier shift due to technology progress occurs or not in the petroleum industry from 2005 to 2009 our empirical study finds that the industry has not exhibited any major frontier shift under natural disposability but showing a considerable frontier shift under managerial disposability in other words the petroleum firms have improved their environmental performance by eco technology to reduce an amount of co 2 emission during the observed annual periods

returns to scale and most productive scale size in dea with negative data abstract non parametric evaluation of returns to scale of production units in standard dea models becomes problematic when their underlying technologies involve negative data the methodology recently offered by allahyar and rostamy malkhalifeh 2015 hence after called arm model is of some help to deal with this issue however there are two shortcomings underlying the arm model first it may not be capable of locating all the production units exhibiting constant returns to scale and second it is also not able to determine most productive scale size in order to deal with these two shortcomings the current paper contributes to the dea literature in two ways first it makes a unifying attempt to propose a general non radial dea model to determine both the most productive scale size and the returns to scale characterizations of production units in the presence of negative data second the proposed model can be adapted in a dynamic dea technology setting to determine growth efficiency and returns to growth behavior of production units facing hyper competition in a new economy

the impact of public and semi public information on cotton futures market abstractthis study estimated the impact of all major public and semi public reports on the cotton futures market from 1995 through 2012 the estimation was based on the event study approach with the events measured by the release of five major reports export sales crop progress world agricultural supply and demand estimates wasde and prospective plantings public reports from us department of agriculture and cotton this month semi public report from international cotton advisory committee the best fitting igarch 1 1 t model that accounted for the day of week seasonality and stock levels was used to measure the report effects on daily nearby cotton close to close futures returns prospective plantings and wasde reports appeared to be the most important sources of information in the cotton markets moving the conditional standard deviation of returns by an average of 14 4 and 9 6 percentage points respectively however significant market reaction was not found for the other three reports our an