price wars in price setting supergames this paper presents a method of generating price wars in price setting supergames the market is one where symmetric oligopolists produce a differentiated product and use price as a strategic variable prices are posted and can be observed by all there is thus little uncertainty or scope for secret price cutting nevertheless price wars occur they are precipitated by periodic but infrequent demand shocks firms use the wars to learn about changed conditions in the market so that they can calculate the new stationary nash equilibrium learning is modeled in a bayesian fashion via the kalman filter copyright 1989 by the london school of economics and political science

can costs of consumption adjustment explain asset pricing puzzles we investigate grossman and laroque s 1990 conjecture that costs of adjusting consumption can account in part for the empirical failure of the consumptionbased capital asset pricing model ccapm we incorporate small fixed costs of consumption adjustment into a ccapm with heterogeneous agents we find that undetectably small consumption adjustment costs can account for much of the discrepancy between the observed variance of nondurable aggregate consumption growth and the predictions of the ccapm and can partially reconcile nondurable consumption data with the observed equity premium we conclude that the ccapm s implications are nonrobust to extremely small adjustment costs the consumption based capital asset pricing models ccapms 1 of lucas 1978 breeden 1979 and grossman and shiller 1982 have difficulty matching the high volatility of equity returns and the high mean equity premium found in u s data first the variance of the ccapm asset pricing kernel is too low to generate plausible equity return volatility more precisely hansen and jagannathan 1991 and cochrane and hansen 1992 show that for any conjectured pricing kernel mean the variance of the kernel is too low to satisfy the hansen jagannathan bounds without implausibly high risk aversion or substantial habit formation 2 second the covariance between the ccapm asset pricing kernel and excess equity returns is too low to generate a plausible equity premium more precisely let us define ep as follows

a general equilibrium model of portfolio insurance this article examines the effects of portfolio insurance on market and asset price dynamics in a general equilibrium continuous time model portfolio insurers are modeled as expected utility maximizing agents martingale methods are employed in solving the individual agents dynamic consumption portfolio problems comparisons are made between the optimal consumption processes optimally invested wealth and portfolio strategies of the portfolio insurers and normal agents at a general equilibrium level comparisons across economies reveal that the market volatility and risk premium are decreased and the asset and market price levels increased by the presence of portfolio insurance article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

the analytic valuation of american options no analytic solutions exists for the valuation of american options written on futures contracts and foreign currencies for which early exercise may be optimal this article formulates the american option valuation problem in economically and mathematically meaningful ways this enables us to derive valuation formulas for american options the properties associated with the optimal exercise boundary are examined and a numerical technique to implement the valuation formulas is presented article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

bundling of substitutes or complements abstract the adams yellen two good bundling framework is generalized to allow the goods to be substitutes or complements general theorems on price change effects are given a monopolist may find it most profitable to offer the goods only as a bundle even if they are imperfect substitutes or to not bundle the goods even if they are complements if one good is competitively sold a monopoly producer of the other good can never increase profits by offering his good only as part of a bundle however such a monopolist might profitably offer his good in both bundled and unbundled form to price discriminate even if the two goods are substitutes

heterogeneity and fine wine prices application of the quantile regression approach this study addresses the price heterogeneity of the five first growths of bordeaux we apply the quantile regression qr approach with market segmentation based on wine bottle price quantiles we

portfolio choice and trading volume with loss averse investors this paper presents a model of portfolio choice and stock trading volume with lossaverse investors the demand function for risky assets is discontinuous and non monotonic as wealth rises beyond a threshold investors follow a generalized portfolio insurance strategy this behavior is consistent with the evidence in favor of the disposition effect in addition loss averse investors will not hold stocks unless the equity premium is quite high the elasticity of the aggregate demand curve changes substantially depending on the distribution of wealth across investors in an equilibrium setting the model generates positive correlation between trading volume and stock return volatility but suggests that this relationship should be non linear

optimal risk sharing and borrowing constraints in a continuous time model with limited commitment abstract we study a continuous time version of the optimal risk sharing problem with one sided commitment in the optimal contract the agent s consumption is a time invariant strictly increasing function of a single state variable the maximal level of the agent s income realized to date we characterize this function in terms of the agent s outside option value function and the discounted amount of time in which the agent s income process is expected to reach a new to date maximum under constant relative risk aversion we solve the model in closed form optimal consumption of the agent equals a constant fraction of his maximal income realized to date in the complete markets implementation of the optimal contract the alvarez jermann solvency constraints take the form of a simple borrowing constraint familiar from the bewley aiyagari incomplete markets models

optimal bundling and pricing under a monopoly contrasting complements and substitutes from independently valued products we develop an analytical model of contingent valuations and address two questions of import to a monopolist i should a given pair of complements or substitutes be sold separately pure components together pure bundling or both mixed bundling and at what prices ii how do optimal bundling and pricing strategies for complements and substitutes differ from those for independently valued products we find that the combination of marginal cost levels and the degree of complementarity or substitutability determines which of the three bundling strategies is optimal complements and substitutes should typically be priced higher than independently valued products

the dynamic pricing of next generation consumer durables learning curve effects aspects of consumer demand models e g reservation price distributions intertemporal utility maximizing behavior and competitive activity are reasons which have been offered to explain why prices of new durables decline over time this paper presents an alternative rationale based on the buying behavior for products with overlapping replacement cycles i e next generation products a model for consumer sales of a new durable is developed by incorporating the replacement behavior of a previous generation product pricing strategies for two product generations are investigated analytically and with numerical methods results indicate that durable replacement behavior leads to a wider set of optimal pricing strategies than previously obtained several empirical illustrations of industry pricing practices for successive product generations are also shown to be consistent with the theoretical results finally various areas for future research are outlined

a classification of the literature on the planning of substitutable products abstract a company s assortment of products and corresponding inventory levels are constrained by available resources such as production capacity storage space and capital to acquire the inventory thus customers may not always be able to find a most preferred product at the time of purchase this unsatisfied demand is often substituted with an alternative in the extant literature there have been an increasing number of studies that consider product substitution when planning product assortment inventory and capacity in conjunction with pricing in this paper we classify the literature on the planning of substitutable products published in the major om and marketing journals during the past thirty years 1974 2013 and present a comprehensive taxonomy of the literature one criterion is adopted to discuss modeling objectives and three major criteria are provided to define the nature of product substitution including substitution mechanism substitution decision maker and direction of substitutability we also identify research gaps to provide guidance for related research in the future

gaussian demand and commodity bundling in an important and widely cited essay adams and yellen 1976 examine the use of package selling as a price discrimination device they consider a monopolist producing two goods with constant unit costs and facing buyers with diverse tastes the marginal utility of a second unit of either good is assumed to be zero for all buyers the two goods are independent in demand for all buyers so that any buyer s reservation price for the first unit of either good is independent of the market price of the other thus the maximum amount any buyer would pay for a bundle consisting of one unit of each good is the sum of the two reservation prices and buyers are completely described by the values of those two prices 2 resale markets are assumed away in order to obtain comparative results for alternative pricing strategies the distribution of reservation prices in the adams yellen framework is assumed to be bivariate normal implications of gaussian demand are explored pure bundling is shown to operate by reducing buyer diversity thus facilitating the capture of consumers surplus it generally makes buyers worse off than unbundled sales it is more profitable if average reservation prices are high enough mixed bundling combines advantages of both pure bundling and unbundled sales and it is generally strictly more profitable than either bundling which treats goods symmetrically seems most attractive under symmetric reservation price distributions i am indebted to severin borenstein for superb research assistance to the ford motor company for research support through a grant to m i t and to the harvard economics department for housing me as a visiting scholar while most of this research was performed of course only i can be held responsible for this essay s shortcomings 1 the first clear recognition of this possibility seems to have been by stigler 1968 but also see burstein 1960 2 paroush and peles 1981 relax the assumption that consumers purchase at most one unit of each good but they consider only two types of buyers both with linear demand functions they retain the assumption that demands are independent for all buyers telser 1979 and phillips 1981 use different frameworks to analyze bundling policies spence 1980 explores the relation between bundling across commodities as here and bundling multiple units of the same

risk aversion and planning horizons a number of empirical studies seem to reject the additive separability of preferences that is assumed in most theoretical models of the life cycle we show that when additive separability is abandoned and interactions between consumptions at different dates are taken into account an interesting relation emerges between risk aversion and length of the planning horizon specifically we show that when consumptions at different dates are specific substitutes risk aversion increases with horizon length this may explain the surprising empirical finding that individuals seem to increase the share of wealth held in risky assets as they become older jel d11 d91 g11

predicting the quality and prices of bordeaux wine bordeaux wines have been made in much the same way for centuries this article shows that the variability in the quality and prices of bordeaux vintages is predicted by the weather that created the grapes the price equation provides a measure of the real rate of return to holding wines about 2 3 per annum and implies far greater variability in the early or en primeur wine prices than is observed the analysis provides a useful basis for assessing market inefficiency the effect of climate change on the wine industry and the role of expert opinion in determining wine prices

risk aversion wealth and background risk we use household survey data to construct a direct measure of absolute risk aversion based on the maximum price a consumer is willing to pay for a risky security we relate this measure to consumer s endowments and attributes and to measures of background risk and liquidity constraints we find that risk aversion is a decreasing function of the endowment thus rejecting cara preferences we estimate the elasticity of risk aversion to consumption at about 0 7 below the unitary value predicted by crra utility we also find that households attributes are of little help in predicting their degree of risk aversion which is characterized by massive unexplained heterogeneity we show that the consumer s environment affects risk aversion individuals who are more likely to face income uncertainty or to become liquidity constrained exhibit a higher degree of absolute risk aversion consistent with recent theories of attitudes toward risk in the presence of uninsurable risks jel d1 d8

consumer price and promotion expectations an experimental study the authors report results from a controlled experiment designed to investigate the impact of a brand s price promotion frequency and the depth of promotional price discounts on the price consumers

an experimental examination of the economics of information this article presents an experimental test of propositions that come from stigler s classic economics of information theory it reviews previous empirical evidence for the propositions and discusses the mixed support provided for the theory it also discusses a major assumption of the theory and presents hypotheses that suggest that the propositions are not as universal as has been thought the results indicate that buyers with more certain beliefs about retailer price images search less and are less responsive to changes in the costs and benefits of search than buyers with less certain beliefs finally the article discusses the implications of the results for both economics and marketing

the price of wine abstract using historical price records for bordeaux premiers crus we examine the impact of aging on wine prices and the long term investment performance of fine wine in line with the predictions of an illustrative model young maturing wines from high quality vintages provide the highest financial returns past maturity famous ch teaus deliver growing non pecuniary benefits to their owners using an arithmetic repeat sales regression over 1900 2012 we estimate a real financial return to wine investment net of storage costs of 4 1 which exceeds bonds art and stamps returns to wine and equities are positively correlated finally we find evidence of in sample return predictability

chapter 11 pricing models in marketing publisher summary this chapter brings together a set of diverse efforts in the recent literature on the modeling of price decisions and related questions in marketing there has been an impressive growth in the array of topics investigated in the literature various trends in the development of pricing models are evident from the foregoing review first one trend has been to develop theoretical models to describe observed pricing strategies in the marketplace and to derive conditions under which certain strategies are optimal this trend is clearly evident when one considers the area of dynamic pricing models another trend is an attempt to develop pricing models in which certain aspects of consumer behavior e g asymmetric response to price increases versus price decreases are incorporated this development is quite recent and does offer a large potential a third dominant direction is the use of game theoretic models for developing equilibrium pricing strategies

optimal asset allocation under linear loss aversion abstract we study the asset allocation of a linear loss averse la investor and compare it to the more traditional mean variance mv and conditional value at risk cvar investors first we derive conditions under which the la problem is equivalent to the mv and cvar problems and solve analytically the two asset problem of the la investor for a risk free and a risky asset then we run simulation experiments to study properties of the optimal la and mv portfolios under more realistic assumptions we find that under asymmetric dependence la portfolios outperform mv portfolios provided investors are sufficiently loss averse and dependence is large finally using 13 eu and us assets we implement the trading strategy of a linear la investor who reallocates his her portfolio on a monthly basis we find that la portfolios clearly outperform mv and cvar portfolios and that incorporating a dynamic update of the la parameters significantly improves the performance of la portfolios

higher order risk attitudes demographics and financial decisions we conduct an experiment to study the prevalence of the higher order risk attitudes of prudence and temperance in a large demographically representative sample as well as in a sample of undergraduate students participants make pairwise choices between lotteries of the form proposed by eeckhoudt and schlesinger 2006 the choices in these lotteries isolate prudent from imprudent and temperate from intemperate behavior we relate individuals risk aversion prudence and temperance levels to demographics and financial decisions we observe that the majority of individuals decisions are consistent with risk aversion prudence and temperance in both the student and the demographically representative sample an individual s level of prudence is predictive of his wealth saving and borrowing behavior outside of the experiment while temperance predicts the riskiness of portfolio choices our findings suggest that the coefficient of relative prudence for a representative individual is approximately equal to two

the effect of plausible and exaggerated reference prices on consumer perceptions and price search this article examines whether advertisers regular price claims affect consumer perceptions and price search behavior experiments involving simulated shopping via personal computers indicate that compared to an ad with no reference price an ad with a plausible reference price raised subjects estimates of the advertiser s regular price and the perceived offer value an exaggerated reference price had generally the same positive effects on perception as a plausible reference price even for the more skeptical subjects further when subjects were presented with an advertised sale price above the lowest expected price the exaggerated reference price increased the percentage of subjects who purchased the product from the advertiser without checking other stores prices

effect of product line pricing characteristics on product evaluations examining the issue of product line pricing from a behavioral perspective this article reports an investigation of the relationship between the price structure of a product line and consumers evaluations of a product model within the line a 2 2 4 factorial design utilizing multiple dependent variables was conducted and replicated to test hypotheses derived from behavioral research results indicate that while the price characteristics of a product line influence consumer evaluations of a product model within the line the price characteristics do not operate independently rather they interact further the research suggests that several dependent variables that are usually considered separately in price research are actually dimensions of similar constructs

dusenberry s ratcheting of consumption optimal dynamic consumption and investment given intolerance for any decline in standard of living duesenberry s ratcheting consumption demand is derived as a feature of the optimal dynamic consumption and investment policy given extreme habit formation that prevents consumption from falling over time preferences are in effect non time separable extended real valued von neumann morgenstern preferences consumption increases each time wealth reaches a new maximum risky investment is proportional to the excess of wealth over the perpetuity value of current consumption extensions constrain the net rate of decrease in consumption with a constant other than zero add more consumption goods and constrain on the maximal holding of the risky asset as a proportion of wealth these strategies may be useful for the management of university endowments participatory investment accounts and risky arbitrage funds

practice prize report an assortmentwide decision support system for dynamic pricing and promotion planning in diy retailing the main objective of this report is to describe a decision support system for dynamic retail pricing and promotion planning our weekly demand model incorporates price reference price effects seasonality article availability information features and discounts building on previous research we quantify demand interdependencies and integrate the resulting profit lifting effects into the optimal pricing model the methodology was developed and implemented at baumax an austrian do it yourself retailer along with the practical requirements an objective function was employed that can be used as a vehicle for implementing a retailer s strategy eight pricing rounds with thousands of different stock keeping units have each served as a testing ground for our approach based on various benchmarking methods a positive impact on profit was reported the currently implemented marketing decision support system increased gross profit on average by 8 1 and sales by 2 1

natural endowments production technologies and the quality of wines in bordeaux does terroir matter we study whether quality assessments made by wine experts and by consumers based on prices obtained at auction between 1980 and 1992 can be explained by variables describing endowments land characteristics exposures of vineyards and technologies from grape varieties and picking to bottled wines however since technological choices are likely to depend on endowments the effects can only be identified using an instrumental variables approach we show that technological choices affect quality much more than natural endowments the effect of which is negligible

technical note a price vector model of demand for consumer durables preliminary developments although considerable research has been conducted on optimal pricing policies for manufacturers relatively little work has been done on how price enters the consumer choice process in this paper a model is developed for durables purchasing which integrates both economic and behavioral research by specifying a vector of five price concepts which affect purchasing behavior of particular interest are variables relating to future price expectations due to data limitations a revised model is estimated and the results provide preliminary support for the general model

the category demand effects of price promotions although price promotions have increased in both commercial use and quantity of academic research over the last decade most of the attention has been focused on their effects on brand choice and brand sales by contrast little is known about the conditions under which price promotions expand short run and long run category demand even though the benefits of category expansion can be substantial to manufacturers and retailers alike this paper studies the category demand effects of consumer price promotions across 560 consumer product categories over a 4 year period the data describe national sales in dutch supermarkets and cover virtually the entire marketing mix i e prices promotions advertising distribution and new product activity we focus on the estimation of main effects i e the dynamic category expansive impact of price promotions as well as the moderating effects of marketing intensity and competition both conduct and structure on short and long run promotional effectiveness the research design uses modern multivariate time series analysis to disentangle short run and long run effects first we conduct a series of unit root tests to determine whether or not category demand is stationary or evolving over time the results are incorporated in the specification of vector autoregressive models with exogenous variables varx models the impulse response functions derived from these varx models provide estimates of the short and long term effects of price promotions on category demand these estimates in turn are used as dependent variables in a series of second stage regressions that assess the explanatory power of marketing intensity and competition several model validation tests support the robustness of the empirical findings we present our results in the form of empirical generalizations on the main effects of price promotions on category demand in the short and the long run and through statistical tests on how these effects change with marketing intensity and competition the findings generate an overall picture of the power and limitations of consumer price promotions in expanding category demand as follows category demand is found to be predominantly stationary either around a fixed mean or a deterministic trend although the total net short term effects of price promotions are generally strong with an average elasticity of 2 21 and a more conservative median elasticity of 1 75 they rarely exhibit persistent effects instead the effects dissipate over a time period lasting approximately 10 weeks on average and their long term impact is essentially zero by contrast the successful introduction of new products into a category is more frequently associated with a permanent category demand increase several moderating effects on price promotion effectiveness exist more frequent promotions increase their effectiveness but only in the short run the use of nonprice advertising reduces the category demand effects of price promotions both in the short run and in the long run competitive structure matters as well the less oligopolistic the category the smaller the short run effectiveness of price promotions at the same time we find that the dominant form of competitive reaction either in price promotion or in advertising is no reaction short run category demand effectiveness of price promotions is lower in categories experiencing major new product introductions finally both the short and long run price promotion effectiveness is higher in perishable product categories the paper discusses several managerial implications of these empirical findings and suggests various avenues for future research overall we conclude that the power of price promotions lies primarily in the preservation of the status quo in the category

is 75 of the sales promotion bump due to brand switching no only 33 is abstract several researchers have decomposed sales promotion elasticities based on household scanner panel data a key result is that the majority of the sales promotion elasticity approximately 74 on average is attributed to secondary demand effects brand switching and the remainder is attributed to primary demand effects timing acceleration and quantity increases the authors demonstrate that this result does not imply that if a brand gains 100 units in sales during a promotion the other brands in the category lose 74 units the authors offer a complementary decomposition measure based on unit sales the measure shows the ratio of the current cross brand unit sales loss to the current own brand unit sales gain during promotion the authors report empirical results for this measure they also derive analytical expressions that transform the elasticity decomposition into a decomposition of unit sales effects these expressions show the nature of the difference between the two decompositions to ga

on the existence of a unique price equilibrium for models of product differentiation abstract we prove the existence of a unique price equilibrium for models of product differentiation these models are characterized by demand functions that depend on differences in prices and have log increasing differences in own price and other prices which implies that best response correspondences are increasing many discrete choice models satisfy these conditions including logit models and nested logit models and the existence theorem can be applied directly with the logarithmic transformation the existence theorem can be extended to models with homogeneous demand functions which characterizes representative consumer models

pricing substitutable products under consumer regrets abstract since many firms provide consumers with substitutable products which may be launched sequentially over several periods strategic consumers need to make their purchase or wait decisions at the beginning of the first period however they may face second period valuation uncertainty when such decisions are made and decisions made under uncertainty may lead to regrets ex post lots of empirical studies show that consumers anticipate these regrets and take anticipated regrets into consideration this paper studies the impact of valuation uncertainty and consumer anticipated regrets on consumer purchasing behavior firm s prices and pricing strategy we consider a firm selling two substitutable products over two periods one product for one period in a selling season the firm announces all its prices at the beginning of the selling season price commitment or announces each price at the beginning of each period dynamic pricing besides a consumer may experience purchase regret from missing a better choice if she chooses to buy in the first period and otherwise wait regret if she chooses to wait consumers make decisions based on the firm s prices and strategies and the anticipated regrets we find that a firm may need to set a lower price in the first period even when the average valuation in this period is higher second with price commitment the impact of each type of regret on the optimal second period price can be opposite and depends on the value of the uncertainty and regret parameters finally we show that price commitment dominates dynamic pricing and the value of price commitment depends on the uncertainty and anticipated regret

the rate of return on investment in wine joyce p jacobsen is wine an investment alternative to stocks and bonds first we review prior studies regarding the pecuniary rate of return to wine and other alternatives to financial assets next we calculate the rate of return to holding red bordeaux wine from 1986 to 1996 using a repeat sale regression finally we contrast the financial performance of wine both on an aggregate basis and for various portfolios to that of other asset classes we conclude that wine does not yield greater returns than financial assets especially when the volatility of returns and transaction costs are taken into account jel d44 g12 c43 investments in art and other collectibles are generally deemed profitable but empirical examinations of the relative attractiveness of noncapital good tangible assets relative to financial instruments have shown that art and other collectibles are not sound investments from a financial point of view there is a large body of literature that calculates the rate of return on alternative asset classes and concludes with few exceptions that nonfinancial assets are not good financial investments however in the case of wine the evidence is mixed collectors often maintain that the pecuniary rate of return on investments in wine is comparable to or exceeds investments in stocks and bonds and economists have not reached a consensus vis a vis the relative attractiveness of wine in this article we consider 1 how investment grade wine compares to other alternative asset classes and 2 whether wine might be a viable investment alternative to stocks or bonds first we consider the results drawn from empirical investigations regarding the relative attractiveness of paintings and other collectibles as investments next we review prior econometric evidence regarding the pecuniary rate of return to wine finally we calculate the return on wine from 1986 to 1996 using a repeat sale regression and contrast wine s financial performance both for an aggregate portfolio and for selected submarkets to that of other asset classes i most investments in collectibles cannot be justified as purely monetary there is a virtual consensus in the economic literature of the arts that financial assets dominate less traditional tangible assets as investments because art and other collectibles embody a compensating differential in the form of a user benefit burton and jacobsen 1999 offer a survey of this literature that finds that most quantitative examinations of the markets for art and other collectibles have concluded that the high risk low return characteristics of noncapital good tangible assets effectively proscribe retaining them as financial investments a seminal study by baumol 1986 for example estimated the real annual rate of return on paintings over the period 1652 to 1961 to be only 0 55 frey and pommerehne 1989 who subsequently extended baumol s data set up through 1987 and expanded it by including sales from more countries also concluded that paintings were relatively unattractive investment instruments yielding only about 1 4 between 1635 and 1949 and 1 6 between 1950 and 1987 on an annual inflation adjusted basis more recent studies have only confirmed that investments in other forms of art and collectibles compare unfavorably to investments in traditional financial assets especially when the rate of return is risk adjusted 1 pesando 1993 for example constructed a price index of modem prints over 1977 to 1992 and estimated that the average real annual rate of return on an aggregate print portfolio was only 1 51 well below the concomitant real return on stocks moreover pesando noted that the risk as measured by the standard deviation of real returns associated with investing in prints was comparable to or even exceeded investments in stocks or long term bonds ii but what about wine

multiproduct activity in an experimental differentiated oligopoly in a symmetric differentiated experimental oligopoly with multiproduct firms we test the predictive power of the corresponding bertrand nash equilibria subjects are not informed on the specification of the underlying demand model in the presence of intense multiproduct activity and provided that a parallel pricing rule is imposed to multiproduct firms strategies tend to confirm the non cooperative multiproduct solution

a comparative study of portfolio insurance abstract this paper undertakes a comparative study of portfolio insurance under a variety of modeling strategies specifically we focus on portfolio insurers who derive utility from horizon wealth with marginal utility tending smoothly to infinity at some pre specified floor we solve for the optimal consumption portfolio wealth of these portfolio insurers and compare with constrained portfolio insurers and normal agents general equilibrium conditions are contrasted under pure exchange and production type models while the market price level is unambiguously increased under pure exchange under production the effect on market level is state dependent in both models the market volatility and risk premium are decreased by portfolio insurance the paper also investigates the possible relationship between portfolio insurance type trading strategies and market volatility

a retail store sku promotions optimization model for category multi period profit maximization consumer promotions are an important element of competitive dynamics in retail markets and make a significant difference in the retailer s profits but no study has so far included all the elements that are required to meet retail business objectives we extend the existing literatures by considering all the basic requirements for a promotional decision support system dss reliance on operational store level data only the ability to predict sales as a function of prices and the inclusion of other promotional variables affecting the category the new model delivers an optimizing promotional schedule at stock keeping unit sku level which maximizes multi period category level profit under the constraints of business rules typically applied in practice we first develop a high dimensional distributed lag demand model which integrates both cross sku competitive promotion information and cross period promotional influences we estimate the model by proposing a two stage sign constrained regularization approach to ensure realistic promotional parameters based on the demand model we then build a nonlinear integer programming model to maximize the retailer s category profits over a planning horizon under constraints that model important business rules the output of the model provides optimized prices display and feature advertising planning together with sales and profit forecasts empirical tests over a number of stores and categories using supermarket data suggest that our model generates accurate sales forecasts and increases category profits by approximately 17 and that including cross item and cross period effects is also valuable

income risk borrowing constraints and portfolio choice economic theory suggests that uninsurable income risk and the expectation of future borrowing constraints can reduce the share of risky assets in a household s portfolio if the utility function exhibits decreasing absolute risk aversion and decreasing prudence an individual will reduce his exposure to rate of return risks when confronted with other independent risks if there are transaction costs the expectation of future borrowing constraints should induce individuals to keep a lower proportion of their wealth in the form of illiquid and risky assets the authors find support for these propositions in a cross section of italian households copyright 1996 by american economic association

the economics of nested names name specificity reputations and price premia a good can be identified by its region or country of origin the firm that produces it and its product name in other words names can nest within each other to categorize goods with increasing specificity this article develops a conceptual framework for jointly analyzing the effect of product firm and collective reputations on market price the model is estimated via quantile regression with california wine market data the results portray how the structure and relative importance of reputations change as product prices vary specifically reputation premia migrate from collective to specific names as prices increase

optimal pricing strategies for new products in dynamic oligopolies this paper deals with the determination of optimal pricing policies for firms in oligopolistic markets the problem is studied as a differential game and optimal pricing policies are established as nash open loop controls cost learning effects are assumed such that unit costs are decreasing with cumulative output discounting of future profits is also taken into consideration initially the problem is addressed in a general framework and we proceed to study some specific cases that are related to models presented in recent literature three basic classes of sales dynamics are analyzed competition with price effects only competition with price as well as adoption effects and competition with adoption effects only in some cases it turns out that results which hold for the monopoly case carry over to the multi firm case in the sense that the qualitative structure of optimal pricing strategies is the same in the monopoly and the oligopoly cases however due to competitive interdependencies differences certainly exist in the levels as well as the rates of change of optimal prices

a generalization of dybvig s result on portfolio selection with intolerance for decline in consumption abstract in this note we show the following result of dybvig 1995 is valid for a general von neumann morgenstern utility function for an agent who does not tolerate a decline in consumption the optimal investment out of discretionary wealth in excess of the perpetuity value of current consumption in the risky asset does not depend on the risk aversion coefficient of her felicity function locally when she does not adjust her consumption the homotheticity assumption is not required an implication of our result is that if an economic agent exhibits non time separable preference due to intertemporal linkage of consumption her risk taking over a short time period can be independent of her felicity function

estimation of a hedonic price equation for burgundy wine a hedonic price equation and two jury grade equations are estimated for burgundy wine the approach is the same as in an earlier bordeaux wine paper combris et al 1997 the data come from an experimental study that is very similar to the study on bordeaux wines the results for the two wine growing regions are compared and discussed

the marketing mix decision under uncertainty this paper develops a marketing mix model under uncertainty using the capital asset pricing model capm valuation framework the model is general because it treats price advertising and personal selling simultaneously and allows for general patterns of uncertainty because the manager often lacks precise quantitative information about the sales response function the analysis focuses on the qualitative properties of the model the methodology of comparative statics is used to determine how the marketing mix should be modified when market conditions change specifically the comparative statics are shown to depend on how advertising and personal selling influence price sensitivity the interaction between advertising and personal selling and the relationship between sales and the return earned in the capital markets the comparative statics for risk depend in addition on the precise mathematical form with which uncertainty enters the random demand function i e additive multiplicative or generalize

estimation of a hedonic price equation for bordeaux wine does quality matter in this paper the hedonic price technique is applied to bordeaux wine in the hedonic price function we include not only the objective characteristics appearing on the label of the bottle but also the sensory characteristics of the wine our data come from an experimental study in which juries have evaluated and graded a sample of bordeaux wines the estimation of the hedonic price equation shows that the market price is essentially determined by the objective characteristics the estimation of a jury grade equation shows that quality unlike the market price is essentially determined by the sensory characteristics

portfolio selection with consumption ratcheting abstract in this paper we study the portfolio selection problem of a finite lived agent who does not tolerate a decline in standard of living the preference can be regarded as exhibiting extreme form of habit formation and also related to loss aversion in the prospect theory we show that the agent s optimal portfolio exhibits a trend chasing behavior and the portfolio share of the risky asset fluctuates between 0 and the value of an unconstrained individual the fluctuations do not attenuate as time gets near the end of the planning horizon we also explore implications of the model for asset pricing and show that the model has a potential to match better the recent us data than traditional habit models we provide a complete solution to the problem by considering a transformed problem which is similar in its formal structure to an irreversible incremental investment problem and equivalent to an infinite series of optimal stopping problems

what to show on the wine labels a hedonic analysis of price drivers of sicilian wines unlike previous literature we construct a hedonic model of wine price that incorporates all the main categories of variables simultaneously to enable a better evaluation of their importance on wine price formation a comprehensive model has the advantage of providing more reliable estimates of the attributes implicit prices thereby facilitating firms pricing and improving effectiveness of wine production and marketing decisions we utilize two different datasets of sicilian wines collecting data from influential wine guides our results suggest that wine price strongly depends on objective features such as vintage alcoholic content geographical origin grape variety producer size and cellaring potential in addition use of containers like tonneaux and barrique positively affects prices whereas use of concrete containers has a negative influence no univocal indications emerge with regard to the effect of the type of company type of viticulture and firm age as for sensorial characteristics our a

dynamics of fine wine and asset prices evidence from short and long run co movements this article examines short and long term price linkages among the majority of fine wine and equity markets over the period of 2003 to 2012 we do not consider the price index liv ex 100 or 500 as is typically undertaken in previous studies but rather examine the auction price series of the world s most traded wine vintage pairs 5 bordeaux first growth 8 bordeaux second growth 5 burgundy 3 rhone 4 italian 5 californian 1 australian and 1 portuguese a global equity index is also included using the morgan stanley capital international world cointegration procedures the granger non causality test and ecm are used to analyse short and long run relationships among these markets the results indicate a strong effect of financial markets on wine prices and short term causality for certain wines moreover the findings indicate short run causality between the wines themselves revealing a leader exogenous or follower endogenous status of certain fine wines in price dynamics and also long ru

optimal dynamic pricing for expanding networks this paper analyzes the dynamic pricing decision of a monopolist marketing a new product or service whose consumption value increases with the expansion of the network of adopters we characterize an optimal pricing strategy which maximizes the present value of the monopolist s profits subject to the dynamics of the demand for network access these dynamics depend among other factors on the current price and consumer anticipations about future network growth we examine the effects of changes in the growth anticipations and the discount rate on the optimal equilibrium access price and network size it is shown that higher growth anticipations and a lower discount rate result in a lower equilibrium price and a larger network

to save or savor the rate of return to storing wine for 28 000 one can buy a jaguar xj6 308 shares of mcdonnell douglas stock a one tenth interest in an oklahoma gas well 4i years of undergraduate life at stanford or one bottle of chateau lafite vintage 1806 that s 1 166 67 an ounce at this moment gold is worth only 275 an ounce and you can t smell or drink it saturday review of literature 1979 p 38 nine years ago 70 could persuade a paris restaurant to part with this same bottle of liquid gold goldwyn 1979 p 4 but for balance admire the growth of a slightly more pedestrian vintage a 1959 beaulieu estate bottled cabernet today a case of it may be purchased for 1 200 for the more modest budget 950 will buy a case of 1970 beaulieu george latour private reserve cabernet all this goes to show that wine the right wine in the last 10 years has provided the prudently daring investor with a spectacular return the virtues of wine as a liquid asset have been tested recently by krasker 1979 krasker cannot reject a hypothesis that wine offers no extraordinary rate of return the wine investor can expect no greater return than that which accrues to riskless assets while krasker finds the concept that an investment in wine outperforms treasury bills in nominal return incompatible with the way economists believe most assets are priced his result seems counter to intuition wine as a subcategory of riskless assets seems contrary to wine s very nature wine is a living substance its maturation process extends well beyond the bottling day lasting as long as 20 40 years in the case of some reds while a few others refuse to retire at 65 but the proper age

a unified approach to identifying estimating and testing demand structures with aggregate scanner data a one to one map between a specific demand structure and a restricted cross elasticity matrix is developed and tested using a random utility model the resulting demand structure can be used to evaluate a firm s ability to differentiate its products and can help determine if demand is characterized by factors that are easy to change similar brands are assumed to share common attributes that are stochastically evaluated by the consumer resulting in a random utility model with correlated errors the map results in more precise cross elasticity estimates and can be used to both identify and test possible structures

demand forecasting with high dimensional data the case of sku retail sales forecasting with intra and inter category promotional information in marketing analytics applications in or the modeler often faces the problem of selecting key variables from a large number of possibilities for example sku level retail store sales are affected by inter and intra category effects which potentially need to be considered when deciding on promotional strategy and producing operational forecasts but no research has yet put this well accepted concept into forecasting practice an obvious obstacle is the ultra high dimensionality of the variable space this paper develops a four steps methodological framework to overcome the problem it is illustrated by investigating the value of both intra and inter category sku level promotional information in improving forecast accuracy the method consists of the identification of potentially influential categories the building of the explanatory variable space variable selection and model estimation by a multistage lasso regression and the use of a rolling scheme to generate forecasts the success of this new method for dealing with high dimensionality is demonstrated by improvements in forecasting accuracy compared to alternative methods of simplifying the variable space the empirical results show that models integrating more information perform significantly better than the baseline model when using the proposed methodology framework in general we can improve the forecasting accuracy by 12 6 percent over the model using only the sku s own predictors but of the improvements achieved 95 percent of it comes from the intra category information and only 5 percent from the inter category information the substantive marketing results also have implications for promotional category management

pricing of demand related products can ignoring cross category effect be a smart choice abstract this paper studies pricing strategies of competing retailers offering substitutable products in multiple product categories for such retailers in addition to accounting for within category pricing effects cross category effects can also influence consumers purchase decisions and thereby impact the retailers optimal pricing strategies we model consumers utility for purchasing substitutable products from the same category and from other categories as well we then solve a game theoretic model to identify the retailers optimal prices and profits our results show that accounting for cross category effects largely influences the retailers pricing and profitability in particular cross category effects influence the sensitivity of prices to within category substitution levels while cross category effects have an impact on retailers equilibrium strategies this effect is only relevant when within category substitution effects are present we also find that intentionally ignoring cross category effects leads to lower prices for categories that are either substitutable or highly complementary and to higher prices otherwise when not accounting for the fact that the two categories are demand related implies lower prices than when this information is accounted for then at least one retailer chooses to disregard the cross category effect at equilibrium finally we find evidence for prisoner s dilemma situations where both retailers ignore cross category effect at equilibrium while accounting for it would yield them higher profits

the pricing of experience goods the example of en primeur wine the market for primeur wine in the bordeaux region allows producers to sell wine that is still in barrels as with all experience goods producers send quality signals to uninformed buyers using original data on bordeaux wines we show that the pricing behavior of producers depends to a large extent on their reputation and much less on short term changes in quality as measured by experts grades we also find that the primeur price has an informative role since a 10 increase in primeur price leads to a 3 increase in prices on the market for bottled wine

the shopping basket a model for multicategory purchase incidence decisions consumers make multicategory decisions in a variety of contexts such as choice of multiple categories during a shopping trip or mail order purchasing the choice of one category may affect the selection of another category due to the complementary nature e g cake mix and cake frosting of the two categories alternatively two categories may co occur in a shopping basket not because they are complementary but because of similar purchase cycles e g beer and diapers or because of a host of other unobserved factors while complementarity gives managers some control over consumers buying behavior e g a change in the price of cake mix could change the purchase probability of cake frosting co occurrence or co incidence is less controllable other factors that may affect multi category choice may be unobserved household preferences or observed household demographics we also argue that not accounting for these three factors simultaneously could lead to erroneous inferences we then develop a conceptual framework that incorporates complementarity co incidence and heterogeneity both observed and unobserved as the factors that could lead to multi category choice we then translate this framework into a model of multi category choice our model is based on random utility theory and allows for simultaneous interdependent choice of many items this model the multivariate probit model is implemented in a hierarchical bayes framework the hierarchy consists of three levels the first level captures the choice of items for the shopping basket during a shopping trip the second level captures differences across households and the third level specifies the priors for the unknown parameters we generalize some recent advances in markov chain monte carlo methods in order to estimate the model specifically we use a substitution sampler which incorporates techniques such as the metropolis hit and run algorithm and the gibbs sampler the model is estimated on four categories cake mix cake frosting fabric detergent and fabric softener using multicategory panel data the results disentangle the complementarity and co incidence effects the complementarity results show that pricing and promotional changes in one category affect purchase incidence in related product categories in general the cross price and cross promotion effects are smaller than the own price and own promotions effects the cross effects are also asymmetric across pairs of categories i e related category pairs may be characterized as having a primary and a secondary category thus these results provide a more complete description of the effects of promotional changes by examining them both within and across categories the co incidence results show the extent of the relationship between categories that arises from uncontrollable and unobserved factors these results are useful since they provide insights into a general structure of dependence relationships across categories the heterogeneity results show that observed demographic factors such as family size influence the intrinsic category preference of households larger family sizes also tend to make households more price sensitive for both the primary and secondary categories we find that price sensitivities across categories are not highly correlated at the household level we also find some evidence that intrinsic preferences for cake mix and cake frosting are more closely related than preferences for fabric detergent and fabric softener we compare our model with a series of null models using both estimation and holdout samples we show that both complementarity and co incidence play a significant role inpredicting multicategory choice we also show how many single category models used in conjunction may not be good predictors of joint choice our results are likely to be of interest to retailers and manufacturers trying to optimize pricing and promotion strategies across many categories as well as in designing micromarketing strategies we illustrate some of these benefits by carrying out an analysis which shows that the true impact of complementarity and co incidence on profitability is significant in a retail setting our model can also be applied to other domains the combination of item interdependence and individual household level estimates may be of particular interest to database marketers in building customized cross selling strategies in the direct mail and financial service industries

market segmentation self selection and product line design the purpose of this paper is to develop a theory of market segmentation based on consumer self selection the extant theory is based on the third degree price discrimination model of pigou central assumptions of which are that the firm can directly address individual segments and isolate them by using consumer self selection i am relaxing these assumptions in the context of a monopolist designing a product line i show that this relaxation has significant implications for how the products and prices are chosen and what they look like in particular segments may be aggregated even though there are no economies of scale furthermore consumer self selection enables us to model cannibalization and competition among firms

quantity discounts managerial issues and research opportunities marketing managers frequently administer pricing policies involving substantial quantity discounts however our understanding of the precise role of these discounts and their design is quite limited this paper reviews and integrates the economics and marketing literature and presents a detailed analysis of the policies of four firms in order to i specify the variety of motivations for quantity discounts ii provide guidelines to managers in designing quantity discount schedules and iii set out the most fruitful directions for future research

multiproduct pricing in oligopoly abstract this paper proposes a two good model of price competition where some consumers visit all shops and others visit only one we find that information frictions lead to price dispersion when the two goods are complements their prices will tend to be negatively correlated so if one is priced high the other will be discounted this finding is supported by some empirical evidence which suggests that simultaneous price discounts of complements are infrequent if the goods are substitutes their prices will be uncorrelated potentially rationalizing the lack of evidence on their co pricing when selling complements retailers earn higher profits than in the one good model through taxing captive consumers with a high overall price tag and attracting shoppers by pricing one of the goods aggressively bundling practices are thus shown to be detrimental to retailers profits

incorporating consumer price expectations in diffusion models in this paper the sensitivity of the optimal price path of a new durable product to the price expectations of consumers is examined consumers enter the market every period in a diffusion type framework during the initial periods more consumers enter the market due to word of mouth influence but in the latter periods saturation effects set in the entering set of cohorts form expectations about future prices and in a stable equilibrium these expectations are fulfilled it is shown that the price path is cyclical with the following properties at the beginning of the cycle the price is at its highest level it falls monotonically over time reaching a low price at the end of the cycle equal to the reservation price of the consumers willing to pay less the cycle lengths are not equal the sensitivity of the optimal price path to model parameters is explored through a numerical procedure

estimating willingness to pay from survey data an alternative pre test market evaluation procedure closed ended contingent valuation surveys are used to assess demands in hypothetical markets and recently have been applied widely to the valuation of non market environmental resources this int

competitive price and quality under asymmetric information we present an analysis of equilibrium in markets with asymmetrically informed consumers some consumers know both price and quality of all sellers whereas others know neither but may search among sellers the equilibrium correlation between price and quality generally increases with the level of information in the market and can be negative when this level is sufficiently small a meta analysis of the available empirical studies strongly supports the model s predictions

optimal strategic pricing of reproducible consumer products this paper investigates the strategic pricing of consumer durable products which can be acquired through either purchase or reproduction e g computer software as copy piracy results in an opportunity loss its adverse effect on profits needs to be incorporated in strategic decisions such as pricing using a dual diffusion model which parsimoniously describes sales and copying and employing control theory methodology optimal price trajectories are derived for the period of monopoly the results indicate that a in absence of any protection skimming pricing strategies are generally optimal and b copy protection is warranted only when sales diffuse much faster than copying and the protection technology does not significantly raise the marginal production cost

optimal portfolio choice for long horizon investors with nontradable labor income this paper examines how risky labor income and retirement affect optimal portfolio choice with idiosyncratic labor income risk the optimal allocation to stocks is unambiguously larger for employed investors than for retired investors consistent with the typical recommendations of investment advisors increasing idiosyncratic labor income risk raises investors willingness to save and reduces their stock portfolio allocation towards the level of retired investors positive correlation between labor income and stock returns has a further negative effect and can actually reduce stockholdings below the level of retired investors financial advisors typically recommend that their customers invest more in stocks than in safe assets when they are working and to shift their investments towards safe assets when they retire jagannathan and kocherlakota 1996 malkiel 1996 by contrast the standard academic models of portfolio choice merton 1969 1971 samuelson 1969 show that retirement is irrelevant for portfolio decisions if investment opportunities are constant and human capital is tradable in this case the fraction of wealth optimally invested in risky assets should be constant over the lifetime of an individual recent research building on the pioneering work by merton 1971 shows that time varying investment opportunities result in portfolio rules with an intertemporal hedging component whose magnitude depends on the investment horizon of the investor kim and omberg 1996 balduzzi and lynch 1997 brennan schwartz and lagnado 1997 brandt 1999 campbell and viceira 1999 2001 barberis 2000 with time variation in investment opportunities retirement and death play an instrumental role as events that exogenously fix the individual s investment horizon more importantly retirement also marks the time at which individuals stop working and thereafter must live off their lifetime savings and possibly transfers from this perspective retirement matters for portfolio choice

incorporating reference price effects into a theory of consumer choice although there has been a good deal of research on incorporating the effects of reference price formation into empirical models of consumer buying behavior little formal theoretical work had been undertaken to date this paper incorporates reference price effects into the traditional economic theory of consumer choice and examines the effects of reference price formation on the results of the traditional theory its marketing implications and the implications for empirical models which examine the effects of reference price formation on actual consumer behavior several implications of the theoretical model are empirically tested using weekly retail egg sales data from southern california this analysis indicates that reference price formation does have significant effects on consumer behavior furthermore these effects are asymmetric with consumers two and a half times more responsive to egg price increases that are in excess of the reference price than they are to comparable egg price decreases

optimal portfolio choice under loss aversion this paper analyzes the optimal investment strategy for loss averse investors assuming a complete market and general ito processes for the asset prices the loss averse investor follows a partial portfolio insurance strategy when the investor s planning horizon is short less than 5 years he or she considerably reduces the initial portfolio weight of stocks compared to an investor with smooth power utility the empirical section of the paper estimates the level of loss aversion implied by historical u s stock market data using a representative agent model we find that loss aversion and risk aversion cannot be disentangled empirically

consumers price sensitivities across complementary categories in this paper we examine the pattern of correlation among consumer price sensitivities for customer purchase incidence decisions across complementary product categories we use a hierarchical bayesian multivariate probit model to uncover this pattern we estimated this model using purchase incidence data for six categories involving three pairs of complementary products our results show a new and interesting pattern of correlation among price parameters of complementary products for example we find that the correlation of own price sensitivities of complementary products is negative these results are consistent across the three complementary pairs of products we also investigate the reason for this counterintuitive result finally we present some managerial implications of our model we show how our model can be used for cross category targeting decisions by retailers we find that compared to nontargeted discounting the average profitability gain from customized discounting across the three category pairs is only 1 29 when complementarity is ignored but this gain improves to 8 26 when full complementarity is taken into account we also investigate whether ignoring the complex pattern of correlation has implications for managerial actions regarding targeting and optimal discounting we find that retailers can make misleading inferences about the impact of targeted discounts when they ignore cross category effects in modeling

the price elasticity of selective demand a meta analysis of econometric models of sales the author describes a meta analysis of econometric studies that estimated the elasticity of selective sales or market share to price the literature review yielded 367 suitable price elasticities

a probabilistic approach to pricing a bundle of products or services the authors propose a probabilistic approach to optimally price a bundle of products or services that maximizes seller s profits their focus is on situations in which consumer decision making is o

a reservation price model for optimal pricing of multiattribute products in conjoint analysis a significant application of conjoint analysis is in pricing decisions for new products conceptually profit maximization is an important criterion for selecting the price of a product however t

prices of american pinot noir wines climate craftsmanship critics pinot noir a variety originating from burgundy in france is the most expensive category of table wine produced in north america this article is aimed at analyzing its price determinants and focuses on climate critical scores and variables related to the winemaker the main findings are as follows 1 pinot noir prices are mainly determined by temperature and precipitation general temperature increases are not beneficial in fact the optimal climate is similar to that in burgundy 2 the second most important variable is the winemaker his or her skill and reputation have a significant impact on prices 3 expert knowledge in the form of critical scores has little explanatory value

optimal consumption and portfolio policies when asset prices follow a diffusion process abstract we consider a consumption portfolio problem in continuous time under uncertainty a martingale technique is employed to characterize optimal consumption portfolio policies when there exist nonnegativity constraints on consumption and on final wealth we also provide a way to compute and verify optimal policies our verification theorem for optimal policies involves a linear partial differential equation unlike the nonlinear partial differential equation of dynamic programming the relationship between our approach and dynamic programming is discussed we demonstrate our technique by explicitly computing optimal policies in a series of examples in particular we solve the optimal consumption portfolio problem for hyperbolic absolute risk aversion utility functions when the asset prices follow a geometric brownian motion the optimal policies in this case are no longer linear when nonnegativity constraints on consumption and on final wealth are included by these examples one can see that our approach is much easier than the dynamic programming approach

a diffusion model incorporating product benefits price income and information we start by assuming that a major benefit of many new durable products such as dishwashers and microwave ovens is time savings others such as vcrs also enhance the value of our leisure time using a household production framework we demonstrate that a utility maximizing individual will have a reservation price for the product which is a function of the product benefits and his wage rate by assuming that the wage rate has an extreme value distribution across the population we are able to derive for the aggregate process an income price dependent logistic adoption equation we then allow for the possibility that certain eligible consumers may delay their purchase of the product because they are unaware that it exists are suspicious of its quality or expect its price to fall unawareness uncertainty and hope for further price declines are assumed to decrease with the increase in the number of previous adopters the resulting diffusion model has the property that the product life cycle phenomenon can be explained jointly or separately by the income price process and the awareness uncertainty expectations process using data on household income on durable penetration within different income classes and on first purchase sales the aggregate diffusion model and its premises are tested and supported it is found that both the income price and awareness uncertainty expectations processes are at work however the dependence of the awareness uncertainty expectations delay process on the number of previous adopters e g word of mouth type effect exists only in certain product categories and is usually relatively weak it is demonstrated that if the word of mouth type effects are weak a price skimming strategy is optimal for a monopolist and also is likely to be implemented by oligopolists the sales forecasting implications of the model also are pursued

profitable pricing when market segments overlap in this paper we analyze profitable pricing strategies when market segments overlap overlapping markets are segments that are not perfectly sealed and leakage between them can occur different consumers are assumed to incur possibly different transaction costs if they choose to purchase in the low price market a monopolist seller knows the distribution of transaction costs across consumers and must choose an optimal pricing strategy in particular the monopolist must decide whether to charge a single price or to price differentiate conditions are derived under which price differentiation will be the most profitable strategy when price differentiation is optimal the equilibrium amount of leakage is determined endogenously unlike the standard economics textbook model of price discrimination in which zero leakage is determined exogenously and is usually given as a necessary condition for price discrimination we show that zero leakage is not necessary for differential pricing to be optimal and that

price competition in multimarket duopolies in this article we analyze the pricing strategies offirms that compete for the demand of an assortment of goods in a complete information static framework in particular we model the competition between two symmetric firms in a market that consists of two types of consumers each of which may buy one unit of both goods sold by the two firms we show that all nash equilibria are such that neither firm charges the same price for both goods interestingly under certain conditions thefirms jointly price discriminate between the two types of consumers and may even achieve the same level of profits as if they maximized joint profits for another set of conditions the unique equilibrium is such that the price for one of the goods and the price for the bundle are the same as the price of the good in a standard hotelling model with one good finally we show that if these equilibria exist both firms prefer to sell both goods rather than specialize in either one of them these results are a direct consequence of the interplay between the multimarket rivalry and the existence of more than one market segment as modelled in this article

the impact of competitive entry in a developing market upon dynamic pricing strategies this paper analyzes dynamic pricing strategies for new durable goods in a two period context the first period is characterized as a monopoly market structure for a new product having dynamic demand the second period begins when a new firm enters the market and thereby changes the market structure to a duopolistic one we begin by analyzing the pricing strategies of three types of monopolists nonmyopic myopic and surprised a nonmyopic monopolist is a first entrant who perfectly predicts the competitive entry a myopic monopolist totally discounts the duopolistic period and a surprised monopolist is a first entrant who has the longer time horizon of the nonmyopic monopolist but who does not foresee the competitive entry our results indicate that the nature of these pricing strategies may be quite different it is optimal for the nonmyopic firm to price its product at a higher level than the myopic monopolist additional results indicate under what circumstances the surprised monopolist will p

wine market prices and investment under uncertainty an econometric model for bordeaux crus classes this paper describes an econometric assessment of wine market prices for 21 of the crus classes ch teaux in the bordeaux region of france the model developed in the analysis attempt to define the relationship between factors that influence wine quality and those that influence wine prices characteristics of the models are 1 climate influences on grape composition acid and sugar levels 2 grape composition influences on market prices 3 subjective quality evaluations parker points on market prices and 4 the effects of age of the wine on market prices the results indicate that composition levels of merlot dominated wines are more climate sensitive than those from cabernet sauvignon dominated wines overall warm dry summers result in high sugar and low acid levels at harvest which in turn lead to higher quality wines wine market price sensitivity to parker point ratings indicates that properties with high cabernet sauvignon dominated wines are highly dependent on the external ratings while merlot dominated wines have a decreased rating sensitivity smaller properties tend to gain over proportionally from high ratings indicating great jumps in price from year to year additionally ch teaux that have experienced high ratings for past vintages exhibit great sensitivity to point steps in ratings for current vintages aging has a positive effect on bordeaux wine pricing this is due to the increasing maturity as well as the increasing absolute scarcity absolute scarcity of product is expressed by the size of the property with small properties producing less per vintage and therefore having less in the market additionally merlot dominated wines exhibit more maturing potential and profit more from aging than cabernet sauvignon dominated wines average per ch teau real annual profit ranges from 1 to 10 high levels of grape ripeness absolute scarcity and smaller properties that are dominated by merlot in their blend lead to the highest profits forecasts for a vintage not yet on the market indicates that 1995 is better than 1994 for both cabernet sauvignon and merlot dominated wines but that 1996 and 1997 are not as good as 1995 especially for merlot dominated wines 2001 elsevier science b v all rights reserved

vancouver s gasoline price wars an empirical exercise in uncovering supergame strategies this paper uses a unique data set to determine which dynamic model of tacit collusion best describes behaviour in a particular industry the area investigated is a region of the vancouver british columbia retail gasoline market players are service station managers who compete daily firms choose price in each period using strategies that depend on prices chosen in the previous period periodically unanticipated demand shocks precipitate price wars when shocks occur the firms in the market must determine the new demand conditions and adjust their strategies from an econometric point of view slopes of intertemporal reaction functions are latent variables the resulting system of equations with time varying parameters is estimated via the kalman filter different repeated game oligopoly models correspond to different transition matrices for the latent variables the models can thus be assessed in terms of their power to explain firm behaviour in this market

portfolio optimization under loss aversion abstract we present an integrated methodological approach for selecting portfolios the proposed methodology is focused on incorporation of investor s preferences in the mean risk framework we propose a risk measure calculated with the downside part of the portfolio return distribution which we argue captures better the practical behavior of the loss averse investor we establish its properties study the link with stochastic dominance criteria point out the relations with conditional value at risk and lower partial moment of first order and give the explicit formula for the case of scenario based portfolio optimization the proposed methodology involves two stages firstly the investment opportunity set efficient frontier is determined and secondly one single preferred efficient portfolio is selected namely the one having the highest expected utility value three classes of utility functions with loss aversion corresponding to three types of investors are considered the empirical study is targeted on assessing the differences between the efficient frontier of the proposed model and the classical mean variance mean cvar and mean lpm1 frontiers we firstly analyze the loss of welfare incurred by using another model instead of the proposed one and measure the corresponding gain loss of utility secondly we assess how much the portfolios really differ in terms of their compositions using a dissimilarity index based on the 1 norm we describe and interpret the optimal solutions obtained and emphasize the role and influence of loss aversion parameters values and of constraints three types of constraints are studied no short selling allowed a certain degree of diversification imposed and short selling allowed

measuring cross category price effects with aggregate store data our objective is to understand the cross category effects of marketing activities using aggregate store level scanner data for this we provide a framework derived from household utility maximizing behavior which assumes that a household chooses the bundle of products with the highest utility we use a second order taylor series approximation to an arbitrary utility function to represent bundle utility aggregate sales or shares in each category are derived under the assumption that households are heterogeneous in their preferences and in their sensitivities to marketing activities our estimation accounts for potential price endogeneity in demand using store level scanner data on four product categories liquid laundry detergents powdered laundry detergents liquid fabric softeners and sheet fabric softeners we find evidence for a complementary relationship between liquid softeners and both forms of detergents we also find that the magnitude of cross category elasticities are brand specific i e different brands in a category have a different price impact on the demand for a brand in another category the results have implications for retailers in terms of the potential need for cross category management as well as for manufacturers such as procter gamble that participate in all four categories we compare our model with a log log regression specification on three criteria estimated elasticities hold out sample predictions and retailer cross category pricing we find that the proposed model produces more reasonable estimates relative to the log log model it predicts better and is more useful for pricing purposes further in a simulation study we show that our proposed model can recover the elasticities from a data generating process that simulates household level joint outcomes across categories even after these data have been aggregated to brand level shares within each category by contrast the log log regression model is unable to do so

new product pricing in quality sensitive markets this paper considers the problem of pricing a new product in a market having competing products of different qualities and market penetration levels as measured by the cumulative number of units sold each customer type selects his optimal product based on maximizing consumer surplus pricing policies for a new product are determined for the seller based on cumulative profit maximization without discounting an example is solved in detail for two demand function forms

monopolist pricing with dynamic demand and production cost this paper deals with pricing of a new product over time by a monopolist who maximizes the discounted profit stream the interdependency of cost and demand on cumulative production makes the problem inherently dynamic cost is assumed to be declining with cumulative production learning curve effect while demand is a function of price and cumulative sales representing word of mouth and saturation effects the paper addresses this problem in a general framework that includes several previous results as special cases and provides new insights in other situations while the learning curve and word of mouth effect cause prices to be lower than the price that maximizes immediate revenues the saturation factor has the opposite effect the price path over time is affected by these factors and the interest rate we characterize the price path under several different situations and interpret the results for policy guidelines