frontiers of real time data analysis in the past ten years researchers have explored the impact of data revisions in many different contexts researchers have examined the properties of data revisions how structural modeling is affected by data revisions how data revisions affect forecasting the impact of data revisions on monetary policy analysis and the use of real time data in current analysis this paper summarizes many of the questions for which real time data analysis has provided answers in addition researchers and institutions have developed better real time data sets around the world still additional research is needed in key areas and research to date has uncovered even more fruitful areas worth exploring jel c52 c53 c80 e01

contours of development abstract new ventures seem to suffer more difficulties and business failures than do established firms also there is a pattern to the mortality with most newly founded businesses lasting only a few years explanations of high failure rates in new ventures have often centered on poor management or have postulated that firms chose inappropriate strategies for their markets and economic environments the present article conceives of new venture mortality as similar in nature to patterns of development that we observe for instance in human embryos or in the formation of new species that is development is an inherently hazardous process some of the specific hazards of development are 1 1 generic entry barriers it is generally not possible for a new firm or product to successfully enter an already crowded stable market where competitors are strong it is more feasible instead to enter a new or growing market or to enter with a substitute product that is clearly superior to those existing or to exploit an unnoticed market opening or to develop competitive strengths secretly without overtly challenging others in the industry 2 2 density of developmental hurdles any new entity must clear a sequence of important hurdles on its way to maturity such as establishing a well ordered office a functional sales channel etc failure at any one hurdle is potentially fatal and a mathematical analysis shows that the likelihood of passing even 10 hurdles in a row is about one in three the earliest hurdles tend to be the most difficult and to crowd more densely than later hurdles particularly troublesome are phase changes where a company first starts business or becomes one thing rather than another within a short period of time 3 3 amplification of maturational error any complex system that grows rapidly and is unable to predict the future perfectly is going to accumulate structural errors that become very difficult to remedy this is a natural and inevitable developmental process as the system grows in complexity and the flaw itself becomes a pillar of the system if an imitator or competitor arrives soon afterward and spots the error he or she will easily be able to retool and redesign a better system whereas the first firm is stuck with old habits tools dies and production methods 4 4 sequence and control in development every embryonic organism has a design template outlined in its dna that is carefully followed both the developing fetus itself and the mother have monitoring and control mechanisms that trigger an abortion if the development process goes awry new ventures lack such mechanisms they are more susceptible to developmental deviance likely to differ from the model successful corporation of their type 5 5 smallness and the asymmetry of luck small things are more subject to the whims of fate than big things amount of resources is the key because new ventures typically start off with scarce resources a bad bounce can sink the company and the probability of at least one such bad bounce is high 6 6 costs of organizing like all of the larger brained mammals a new company such as a medical supply firm must learn through experience much of what it means to be mature costs associated with learning arrive just when the firm is most vulnerable and distracted by other challenges in one sense the message of this article is good news in that managers of failed enterprises need not assume all the blame after all if most new businesses do poorly then failure is the average or typical case and it makes little sense to say that the average manager is poor the bad news is that if our perspective is correct managers of new ventures have less scope to influence the success of their enterprises than is commonly believed the managerial recommendations that emerge are that new ventures are more likely to succeed to the extent that they have sponsorship or capital have managers with a range of experience in previous ventures are given extra assistance of shelter or can ensure a high probability of passing all of the hurdles faced by a new venture

a lack of insight do venture capitalists really understand their own decision process abstract what decision criteria do venture capitalists vcs use to make their investment decisions this question has received much attention within entrepreneurship literature i e wells 1974 poindexter 1976 tyebjee and bruno 1984 macmillan seigel and subba narasimha 1985 macmillan zeman and subba narasimha 1987 robinson 1987 timmons et al 1987 sandberg schweiger and hofer 1988 hall and hofer 1993 zacharakis and meyer 1995 for a number of reasons first vc backed ventures achieve a higher survival rate than non vc backed businesses kunkel and hofer 1990 sandberg 1986 timmons 1994 second a better understanding of the decision process may lead to even better survival rates finally entrepreneurs seeking venture funding benefit if they understand what factors are most important to the vc although past research has greatly contributed to our understanding of the decision it may be biased and somewhat misleading the majority of past studies rely on post hoc methodologies e g interviews and surveys to capture the decision process post hoc methods assume that vcs can accurately relate their own decision processes but studies from cognitive psychology suggest that people in particular experts are poor at introspecting introspection is subject to rationalization and post hoc recall biases using social judgment theory and the associated lens model as a framework the current study investigates how well vcs introspect about their own decision process and by extension whether the past research efforts are biased the current research uses policy capturing a real time method common in cognitive psychology to capture the vc s actual theories in use versus their espoused theories hitt and tyler 1991 policy capturing requires that vcs make a series of real time decisions based on various information factors regression analysis of each vcs decision captures how important each of the information factors is to her his actual decision process after the vcs make their decisions they provided a weighting of how they believe they used the information factors comparing the captured decision policies to stated decision policies provides a measure of vc insight the findings suggest that vcs are not good at introspecting about their own decision process even within the confines of a controlled experiment which greatly reduces the amount of information considered vcs lacked strong understanding of how they made decisions most decision makers would like to have all relevant information available for their decision however as more information becomes available insight diminishes finally this study finds that vcs are very consistent in their decision process even though they do not necessarily understand how they make their decisions vcs face a plethora of information when making an investment decision i e business plan outside consultants due diligence etc it may be difficult for vcs to truly understand their intuitive decision process because of all the noise caused by this information overload this lack of systematic understanding impedes learning vcs cannot make accurate adjustments to their evaluation process if they do not truly understand it therefore vcs may suffer from a systematic bias that impedes the performance of their investment portfolio the methodology used in this experiment can be modified and used as a training tool for active vcs in addition the consistent nature of vc decision making even if they do not have a strong understanding of that process is favorable to the development of decision aides decision aides can minimize the danger of salient information e g the lead entrepreneur is a winner clouding the vc s judgment past research also needs to be interpreted in a new light although vcs undoubtedly use some of the information cited in past studies the relative importance of that information needs to be reevaluated vcs may not for instance rely most on the background of the entrepreneurial team in addition it is likely that the past studies provide more information factors than vcs actually use people have a tendency to overstate the information they believe they relied upon and to use far less information typically three to seven factors to make a decision than they actually think they use the methodology used in this experiment has the potential to identify the more relevant information factors cited in previous work even though vcs are experts in the new venture funding realm their decision process has room for improvement almost 40 of all backed ventures fail to provide a return to the vc considering the billions invested each year a modest improvement in the failure rate can have a substantial impact on venture portfolio returns that improvement starts by better understanding the decision process this study is a step in that direction

r d and technology policy in nics as learning processes abstract this paper presents a dynamic learning perspective to research and development activity and to policies promoting these activities and technological development more generally the basic idea is that successful penetration of research and development rd multidisciplinary learning both technoeconomic and managerial organizational and learning which is cumulative through time this is especially so at an early infant phase of diffusion of this process through the economy a dynamic view of externalities and market failures is presented one that provides the basis for a catalytic perspective of technological policy this perspective is based on the distinction between an infant and a mature phase of policy where massive flexible search oriented support in the early phase sets the base for endogenization routinization of r d in the economy and for the possibility of drastic reductions in government support for traditional forms of r d in the later phase

forecasting the real price of oil time variation and forecast combination abstract this paper sheds light on the questions whether it is possible to generate an accurate forecast of the real price of oil and how it can be improved using forecast combinations for this reason the following paper will investigate the out of sample performance of seven individual forecasting models the results show that it is possible to construct better forecasts compared to a no change benchmark for horizons up to 24 months with gains in the mspe ratio as high as 25 in addition some of the existing models will be extended e g the u s inventories model by introducing more suitable real time measures for the brent crude oil price and the var model of the global oil market by using different measures for the economic activity furthermore the time performance investigated by constructing recursively estimated mspe ratios discovers potential weaknesses of the used models hence several different combination approaches are tested with the goal of demonstrating that a combination of individual models is beneficial for the forecasting performance thereby a combination consisting of four models has proven to have a lower mspe ratio than the best individual models over the medium run and in addition to be remarkably stable over time

new venture teams assessment of learning assistance from venture capital firms abstract prior research examining whether venture capital firms vcs add value to the ventures in their portfolios by advising their new venture teams nvts has led to inconclusive results whereas most prior studies have assumed that nvts value vc assistance this study tests for the possibility that they differentially value two different types of vc assistance business management and operational we collected data by surveying 837 firms identified in the venture capital journal that had received financing from venture capital firms only firms that received first round financing were included in our analysis which reduced our sample size to 205 firms our central finding is that systematic differences exist among nvts in their evaluation of learning assistance from vcs even though vcs can chose their own level of involvement with an nvt successfully improving venture performance through nonfinancial assistance at least partially depends upon the extent to which the nvt values vc input our results indicate that nvts with more industry experience and longer team tenure in the current venture are negatively related to both business management advice and operational assistance offered by their vcs however when an nvt has previously worked together and when its primary experience is from another industry it tends to welcome business management advice from its vc one interpretation of this finding is that an advanced level of operational specialization already exists in such a team which reinforces established operating patterns changing established operating patterns could make it more costly to adopt vc input on operational issues however business management advice may be more welcome because the nvt is still learning how to compete in a new industry these findings add to the growing literature that suggests that vcs play a particularly important role in entrepreneurial ventures when they pursue the development of new technologies ehrlich et al 1994 sapienza 1992 however business management advice is not highly valued by nvts that pursue more technical innovations these findings in combination with those of sapienza and amason 1993 suggest that conflict in the vc nvt relationship may be the greatest when the parties attempt to resolve critical differences which ironically appear to be the ones where the nvt could derive the greatest benefit from listening to its vc finally current firm performance is not related to the nvt s evaluation of vc assistance although cross sectional measures of performance have obvious limitations particularly with new ventures these results indicate that the nvt evaluation of vc assistance is not driven by short term performance past research has shown that vcs vary widely in their preferred level of involvement with the managers of firms in their portfolio some vcs prefer a laissez faire approach whereas others think that they must be more involved if they are to ultimately receive high rewards the central finding from this study is that significant differences exist among nvts in their evaluation of business management and operational assistance for vcs that are more involved these findings suggest that the optimal level of involvement is also partially contingent upon the nvts openness to learning ignoring the contingent nature of the vc nvt relationship vcs could reduce their influence as a tool to improve firm performance and to ensure the ultimate survival of the venture

towards a capability theory of innovating firms implications for management and policy author s teece dj abstract the author 2017 business enterprises lie at the core of ecosystems that drive economic development and growth in market economies yet until recently mainstream economics has mostly treated firms like homogeneous black boxes run by opportunistic managers the field of strategic management has developed a more nuanced approach to the understanding of how firms are created organized and grow how they innovate and compete and how managers manage one of the leading paradigms in the field is the dynamic capabilities framework in this paper contrasts and complementarities are drawn between dynamic capabilities and economic theories of the firm including transaction cost economics and agency theory connections to the cambridge school are highlighted including the duality between keynes s animal spirits and the dynamic capabilities entrepreneurial owner manager leibenstein s x inefficiency is juxtaposed here with d ineffectiveness knowledge based theories of the firm consistent with cambridge conventions emerge intellectual exchange between strategic management and economics is encouraged to help improve the intuition behind models of firms and the economy

managing technological development lessons from the newly industrializing countries this survey looks at the technological development of the newly industrializing countries to draw some important lessons for firms and governments in other developing countries first inventing products and processes is not at the center of the technological development needed for successful industrialization it is at the fringe what is at the center is acquiring the capabilities needed for efficient production and investment second some countries have overemphasized the drive for technological self sufficiency and paid a high price in poor productivity what makes the best economic sense is to combine foreign and local technological elements and to do this in a way that progressively develops local capabilities in areas where they can be more efficient third the acquisition of technological capability does not come merely from experience though experience is important fourth the economic environment through its influence on the technological efforts of firms is very important in determining the productivity of a country s resources

the impact of technology and structural change on export performance in nine developing countries summary this paper focuses on nine large developing countries structural decomposition analysis shows that they tend to concentrate innovative activities in industries stagnating at the world level international trends partly offset national improvements in patent shares the same occurs for world export shares although countries display greater adaptation to world demand econometric analysis suggests that technological activity is related to export gains in high technology sectors if a country expands in industries with increasing technological opportunities in medium technology sectors if it moves away from low opportunity sectors in low technology sectors if it is initially specialized in growing sectors in high tech and low tech sectors export performance is also affected by the growth of technical capabilities foreign direct investments productivity and the initial level of technical skills and in medium tech by the growth rates of foreign direct investments

technological capabilities and industrialization abstract this paper reviews the implications for industrial strategy of recent research on technological capabilities at the firm and national levels after exploring the nature and determinants of microlevel technological development a simple framework for explaining the growth of national capabilities is set out based on the interplay of incentives capabilities and institutions each may suffer market failure and so require corrective intervention the experience of some industrializing countries is described to assess the validity of this framework it is concluded that interventions carefully and selectively applied are necessary for industrial success

a structuralist perspective on the role of technology in economic growth and development abstract this paper presents an integrated view of what is termed a structuralist perspective to economic growth and development that stands in contrast to the mainstream orthodox or neoclassical view in the structuralist view structural changes are causes of growth rather than outcomes of a process of capital accumulation and of rising per capita incomes moreover the growth process may be punctuated by periods of discrete shifts in resource allocation creative destruction and growth acceleration rather than being smooth throughout structural changes need not be automatic they require a skill specific infrastructure of new capabilities which when established generate new comparative advantages market failures may be pervasive due to problems of human capital accumulation critical mass and discrete choice among alternative growth paths thus in addition to creating a favorable environment for business and assuring through macroeconomic policy adequate investment successful growth may require an adequate industrial and technological policy particularly at nodes of structural change the paper surveys the structuralist insights appearing in the literature starting with the early postwar economic development literature and including recently developed formal models it also proposes a kinked or scalloped aggregate production function as a simple tool for structuralist analysis

innovation policy in an open economy a normative framework for strategic and tactical issues abstract in this paper we present a normative analysis of innovation policy grounded in traditional economic principles which responds to the schumpeterian critique of previous efforts in the neoclassical vein focusing directly on specific policy issues we pursue our analysis in two main directions investigating the role of government in developing an infrastructure for innovation and the optimal design of support schemes for r d projects the analysis suggests that while the structural and developmental issues stressed by the schumpeterian school are of fundamental importance identification of disparities between social and private gains the market failure approach provides an invaluable tool for understanding and formulating innovation policy focusing our attention on such factors as economics of scale the incidence of externalities and the supranormal profits offered by imperfectly competitive markets it provides a rational and realistic basis for anticipating where and how government intervention on behalf of industrial innovation is likely to be most effective we view our contribution as a step towards bridging the gap between the neoclassical mainstream of economic analysis and the practice of innovation policy

do venture capital firms benefit from international syndicates this paper examines the benefits of syndicating with foreign venture capital vc firms for domestic vc firms in emerging markets we find that the vc firms that are domestic to their invested companies and previously syndicated with foreign partners invest proportionately more frequently in riskier ventures after gaining syndication experience with foreign vc firms a larger number of their portfolio companies are successfully exited thereby suggesting improved performance we hypothesize that this outcome is due to the organizational learning effects while the previous research has shown benefits for foreign vc firms our results show that domestic vc firms also benefit from international syndication through improved investments

competitiveness indices and developing countries an economic evaluation of the global competitiveness report developing countries policy makers worry about national competitiveness and closely watch indices ranking international competitive performance this paper analyzes from a development economics perspective if competitiveness is a legitimate concern and if the leading indices deserve the attention they get it assesses the best known index the global competitiveness report of the world economic forum and finds deficiencies at several levels its definitions are too broad the approach biased and the methodology flawed many qualitative measures are vague redundant or wrong these weak theoretical and empirical foundations reduce the value of the indices for analytical or policy purposes

technological regimes catching up and leapfrogging findings from the korean industries abstract this paper examines the experiences of selected industries in korea to identify the stylized facts in the process of technological capability building and thereby to sort out the conditions for the catching up to occur to explain the process we have built a model of technological and market catching up a special attention has been given to the question of whether there has been a case of leapfrogging in any industry in korea and if so what are the conditions for its incidence in our framework we first measure the degree of catching up in terms of market shares in the world then we focus on catching up in technological capabilities in explaining the different record and prospects of korean industries in market catching up in the model technological capability is determined as a function of both technological effort and the existing knowledge base as determinants of technological effort we look at the technological regimes of the industries such as cumulativeness of technical advances fluidity predictability of technological trajectory and the properties of knowledge base using this model we explain the different technological evolution of the selected industries in korea including the d ram automobile mobile phone consumer electronics personal computer and machine tool industries we find three different patterns of catching ups path creating catching up cdma mobile phone path skipping catching up d ram and automobile and path following catching up consumer electronics personal computers and machine tools we interpret the first two case of catching up as leapfrogging unlike the argument by perez and soete perez c soete l 1988 catching up in technology entry barriers and windows of opportunity in dosi et al eds technical change and economic theory pinter publishers london we find that important r d projects except automobiles where only private r d was involved involved both private and public capacities and that entry was not driven by endogenous generation of knowledge and skills but by collaboration with foreign companies

first announcements and real economic activity the recent literature suggests that first announcements of real output growth in the us have predictive power for the future course of the economy while the actual value of output growth does not we show that this need not point to a behavioural relationship whereby agents respond to perceptions instead of the truth but may instead simply be a by product of the data revision process the revisions to the initial estimates which define the final values of the observations are shown to be key in determining any relationship between first announcements and the future course of the economy c 2010 elsevier b v all rights reserved

the impact of education experience and inner circle advisors on sme performance insights from a study of public development centers in this study we investigate the effects of entrepreneurial human capital on sme performance using data on 2 713 smes within the european union performance was measured in two ways profitability as roa and productivity as revenue per employee results indicate that both profitability and productivity are positively related to industry specific knowledge possessed by the ceo owner prior to starting up the firm and the general business knowledge acquired once the firm is up and running experience as a result of having previously worked in a firm in the same industry before starting a business was related to productivity but there is no relation with profitability there is a link between performance and inclusion of other ceo owners in the founder s inner circle of advisors this relationship is positive when the advisor s venture has experienced failure and negative when the advisor s venture has been successful we discuss the significance of these findings for research and practice

a novel hybrid method for crude oil price forecasting abstract forecasting crude oil price is a challenging task given the nonlinear and time varying characteristics of international crude oil prices we propose a novel hybrid method to forecast crude oil prices first we use the ensemble empirical mode decomposition eemd method to decompose international crude oil price into a series of independent intrinsic mode functions imfs and the residual term then the least square support vector machine together with the particle swarm optimization lssvm pso method and the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity garch model are developed to forecast the nonlinear and time varying components of crude oil prices respectively next the forecasted crude oil prices of each component are summed as the final forecasted results of crude oil prices the results show that the newly proposed hybrid method has a strong forecasting capability for crude oil prices due to its excellent performance in adaptation to the random sample selection data frequency and structural breaks in samples furthermore the comparison results also indicate that the new method proves superior in forecasting accuracy to those well recognized methods for crude oil price forecasting

exports of manufactures by developing countries emerging patterns of trade and location developing countries are rapidly increasing their shares of manufactured trade not just in labour intensive products but also in capital and skill intensive ones their shares are rising particularly rapidly in the high technology area however manufactured exports remain highly concentrated in the developing world with a few countries dominating all forms of export within the successful exporting countries there are significant differences in the technology content of exports these trends are difficult to explain with received trade theory even taking human capital into account or with reference to broad economic policies it is useful to bring in learning along with scale economies increasing returns and agglomeration as determinants of comparative advantage these factors imply market failures and so a role for policy in developing genuine comparative advantages this article suggests that emerging trade and location patterns in the developing work are explained by market imperfections and government policies to overcome them

what central bankers need to know about forecasting oil prices central banks routinely use short horizon forecasts of the quarterly price of oil in assessing the global and domestic economic outlook we address a number of econometric issues specific to the construction of quarterly oil price forecasts in the united states and abroad we show that quarterly forecasts of the real price of oil from suitably designed vector autoregressive models estimated on monthly data generate the most accurate real time forecasts overall among a wide range of methods including quarterly averages of forecasts based on monthly oil futures prices no change forecasts and forecasts based on regression models estimated on quarterly data

the central banker as a risk manager estimating the federal reserve s preferences under greenspan we derive a natural generalization of the taylor rule that links changes in the interest rate to the balance of the risks implied by the dual objective of sustainable economic growth and price stability this monetary policy rule reconciles economic models of expected utility maximization with the risk management approach to central banking within this framework we formally test and reject the standard assumption of quadratic and symmetric preferences in inflation and output that underlies the derivation of the taylor rule our results suggest that fed policy decisions under greenspan were better described in terms of the fed weighing upside and downside risks to their objectives rather than simply responding to the conditional mean of inflation and of the output gap

multivariate density forecast evaluation and calibration in financial risk management high frequency returns on foreign exchange we provide a framework for evaluating and improving multivariate density forecasts among other things the multivariate framework lets us evaluate the adequacy of density forecasts involving cross variable interactions such as time varying conditional correlations we also provide conditions under which a technique of density forecast calibration can be used to improve deficient density forecasts and we show how the calibration method can be used to generate good density forecasts from econometric models even when the conditional density is unknown finally motivated by recent advances in financial risk management we provide a detailed application to multivariate high frequency exchange rate density forecasts

market stimulating technology policies in developing countries a framework with examples from east asia abstract this paper proposes an analytical framework for technology development based upon evolutionary approaches and drawing upon asian development strategies the analysis rests on the concept of market stimulating technology policies comprising a broad array of policies to promote industrial and technological development some market and others government determined these policies may be functional horizontal or vertical and can be analyzed at three levels national strategic and specific the paper suggests that strategic choices are involved at all stages that cannot be resolved entirely by recourse to free markets

what do we learn from the price of crude oil futures summary despite their widespread use as predictors of the spot price of oil oil futures prices tend to be less accurate in the mean squared prediction error sense than no change forecasts this result is driven by the variability of the futures price about the spot price as captured by the oil futures spread this variability can be explained by the marginal convenience yield of oil inventories using a two country multi period general equilibrium model of the spot and futures markets for crude oil we show that increased uncertainty about future oil supply shortfalls under plausible assumptions causes the spread to decline increased uncertainty also causes precautionary demand for oil to increase resulting in an immediate increase in the real spot price thus the negative of the oil futures spread may be viewed as an indicator of fluctuations in the price of crude oil driven by precautionary demand an empirical analysis of this indicator provides evidence of how shifts in the uncertainty about future oil supply shortfalls affect the real spot price of crude oil copyright 2010 john wiley sons ltd

do oil prices help forecast u s real gdp the role of nonlinearities and asymmetries there is a long tradition of using oil prices to forecast u s real gdp it has been suggested that the predictive relationship between the price of oil and one quarter ahead u s real gdp is nonlinear in that a oil price increases matter only to the extent that they exceed the maximum oil price in recent years and that b oil price decreases do not matter at all we examine first whether the evidence of in sample predictability in support of this view extends to out of sample forecasts second we discuss how to extend this forecasting approach to higher horizons third we compare the resulting class of nonlinear models to alternative economically plausible nonlinear specifications and examine which aspect of the model is most useful for forecasting we show that the asymmetry embodied in commonly used nonlinear transformations of the price of oil is not helpful for out of sample forecasting more robust and often more accurate real gdp forecasts are obtained from symmetric nonlinear models based

assessing venture capital investments with noncompensatory behavioral decision models abstract this article examines the prospect of a decision support system for the assessment of venture capital investments it approaches the task of developing decision models from the perspective of the venture capitalist thus venture capitalists have played an active role in defining the predictor variables and in providing data on their own investments venture capitalists and recent research underscore the importance of the entrepreneur in new ventures and the predictor variables selected reflect this bias the literature is now replete with studies demonstrating the superiority of multiattribute actuarial models over human judgment for diverse decision environments ranging from medical science to finance this class of behavioral decision models consists of the simultaneous consideration of several attributes relevant to a decision actuarial models of this kind can be applied to attribute and decision data based on the decision maker s judgments i e expected outcomes before the events transpire termed judgment based models they can also be applied to data on past events or actual outcomes where known termed environment based models again it needs to be emphasized that actuarial models whether based on the decision maker s judgments or on the environment usually outperform the decision maker these general principles are applied here among actuarial models a particular subclass of models is called noncompensatory in these models a low value for one attribute cannot be compensated by a high value for another attribute as an example in selecting a place kicker in football athletic skills other than kicking ability are irrelevant in this study two types of noncompensatory actuarial models conjunctive and disjunctive are used to model both venture capitalists judgments and the environment interviews with venture capitalists reveal that some place strong emphasis on one or two attributes in judging a potential investment this type of decision making behavior indicates a disjunctive decision process at the same time there can be a tendency to ensure that a prospective investment is satisfactory at a minimum the entrepreneur s tenacity courage is a redundant variable that is sublimated in desire for success and enthusiasm capacity for work

quantifying the speculative component in the real price of oil the role of global oil inventories abstract one of the central questions of policy interest in recent years has been how many dollars of the inflation adjusted price of oil must be attributed to speculative demand for oil stocks at each point in time we develop statistical tools that allow us to address this question and we use these tools to explore how the use of two alternative proxies for global crude oil inventories affects the empirical evidence for speculation notwithstanding some differences overall these inventory proxies yield similar results while there is evidence of speculative demand raising the price in mid 2008 by between 5 and 14 dollars depending on the inventory specification there is no evidence of speculative demand pressures between early 2003 and early 2008 as a result current policy efforts aimed at tightening the regulation of oil derivatives markets cannot be expected to lower the real price of oil in the physical market we also provide evidence that the libyan crisis in 2011 shifted expectations in oil markets resulting in a price increase of between 3 and 13 dollars depending on the inventory specification with regard to tensions with iran in 2012 the implied price premium ranges from 0 to 9 dollars

a quantitative content analysis of the characteristics of rapid growth firms and their founders a group of firms that is attracting attention are rapid growth firms these firms are of particular interest because rapid growth is an indication of market acceptance and firm success by studying rapidgrowth firms researchers can help all firms better understand the attributes associated with firm growth despite these positive outcomes however rapid firm growth is difficult to achieve and maintain this study adds to the literature through a quantitative content analysis of the narrative descriptions of 50 rapid growth firms and a comparison group of 50 slow growth companies the purpose of the study was to draw from the narratives a list of empirically grounded growth related attributes that are associated with rapid growth firms the findings of the study resulted in the advancement of a conceptual model of the attributes of rapid growth firms in four areas founder characteristics firm attributes business practices and human resource management hrm practices

start up ventures towards the prediction of initial success abstract there are numerous studies on new product activities that try to measure the relative impact of different factors on success or failure the research on new ventures is less comprehensive and often only a few items are considered this article reports on the early results from a research program that is combining the research on both new products and new ventures to come up with a more comprehensive evaluation of relative success factors the literature was reviewed to determine the most significant factors found in prior work a 68 item questionnaire was developed and used with the chief executives of 24 new technical ventures all associated with the rpi incubator or technology park ten of the 17 factors investigated yielded reliable measurements which were then subjected to siepwise regression analysis to determine the relative impact of each factor on the two success measurements used initial quantified success and initial subjective success it should be recognized that initial success does not necessarily predict ultimate success an area to be investigated in continuing studies the two success measurements were not correlated and the correlations with the independent variables were therefore different initial quantified success showed a strong negative correlation with market attractiveness companies entering smaller or more slowly growing markets were doing better than those in the larger faster growing markets initial quantified success was positively correlated with the level of entrepreneurial characteristics exhibited by the leader s these were the only two variables exhibiting significant relationships with quantified success initial subjective success was negatively correlated with market dynamism rather than market attractiveness negative correlation was also measured with both r d intensity and the organic nature of the firm this latter finding is contrary to much of the new product literature which emphasizes the need for individual independence and initiative such may be the case with new products or ventures within large organizations but in small independent ventures the entrepreneur should provide strong control and guidance a positive correlation was observed with the entrepreneurial characteristics and also with the degree of match between the firm s experience and the new business requirements no significant correlation was observed with 1 product or service uniqueness 2 gross margin or 3 strategic aggressiveness the lack of correlation with these variables is surprising but it may be due to the small size of the sample the research confirmed two items that are understood by most scholars and experienced practitioners the importance of the entrepreneur and the importance of pursuing new ventures that match the technical and market experience of the team the less obvious results are those that suggest that success is favored by strong review and control by the entrepreneur rather than the development of employee initiative and independence also the initial success appears to be coming more readily to firms in more slowly growing or less dynamic markets it will take an expanded sample and a longer time horizon to determine if these initial trends continue to ultimate success

macroeconomic forecasting performance under alternative specifications of time varying volatility summary this paper compares alternative models of time varying volatility on the basis of the accuracy of real time point and density forecasts of key macroeconomic time series for the usa we consider bayesian autoregressive and vector autoregressive models that incorporate some form of time varying volatility precisely random walk stochastic volatility stochastic volatility following a stationary ar process stochastic volatility coupled with fat tails garch and mixture of innovation models the results show that the ar and var specifications with conventional stochastic volatility dominate other volatility specifications in terms of point forecasting to some degree and density forecasting to a greater degree copyright 2014 john wiley sons ltd

comparing the information acquisition strategies of venture capital and commercial lenders a computer based experiment abstract owners and financial planners in new ventures prefer using internal sources of capital as much as possible because they are uncertain about how to obtain external financing and how the involvement of others will impact their ventures because undercapitalization and financial problems are at the center of nearly all business failures it would appear useful for owners and financial planners to reduce the uncertainty surrounding external financing obtaining information about one source of this uncertainty a lack of understanding of the decision processes followed by venture capitalists is the focus of research in this paper and a growing body of literature to further this line of study we investigate the differences in decision behavior of venture capitalists using bankers as a benchmark for comparison in cases in which debt and debt related financing are sought to the extent that venture capitalists have unique decision processes owners and financial planners might improve their ability to obtain financing through knowledge of the unique features of venture capitalists decision processes in addition venture capitalists might improve their decision effectiveness if made aware of systemic biases in their decision procedures using a computer software package to trace information acquisition processes we found that venture capitalists acquired less information and followed a pattern of acquisition that was deeper within categories of information than bankers in addition venture capitalists showed a stronger preference for strategic data and less interest in historical financial data both groups minimized the use of financial forecasts and followed decision processes persistently across different types of companies start up and well established the implications of this study for practice are two fold first if the owners or financial planners of a new or relatively new venture are seeking financing from external sources they should package the business plan and request in a manner that is consistent with the source of financing for example requests from venture capitalists should highlight strategic information such as descriptions of the product or process patentability prospects product market and management team less emphasis should be placed on financial information particularly financial projections in contrast requests for financing by banks should highlight historical financial information such differences between venture and bank financing may lead individuals who are seeking financing to conclude that because historical financial information is of primary importance to bankers bank financing should be sought after the business has developed a positive financial history and trend this would confirm intuition and research findings that venture financing is the primary source of external financing in the early stages of a new venture second bankers and venture capitalists like all decision makers who have developed a degree of expertise in a particular specialty should attempt to gain some insight into their decision processes the goal of obtaining this information would be to provide feedback on processes such as information acquisition which tend to become automatic over time with this knowledge bankers and venture capitalists could examine any biases in their behavior with the ultimate goal of improving performance this paper also has important implications for researchers in particular we have demonstrated that computer based approaches for studying decision behavior offer promise for interesting explorations into important issues such as how venture capitalists make decisions the computer minimizes researcher intrusion in the decision task and permits the collection of process data from samples large enough to permit statistical analyses in addition the subjects determine the length of the task and the direction of the search much as they would in practice which increases the external validity of the research method

quantifying the risk of deflation we propose formal and quantitative measures of the risk that future inflation will be excessively high or low relative to the range preferred by a private sector agent unlike alternative measures of risk our measures are designed to make explicit the dependence of risk measures on the private sector agent s preferences with respect to inflation we illustrate our methodology by estimating the risks of deflation for the united states germany and japan for horizons of up to 2 years the question of how large these risks are has been subject to considerable public debate we find that as of september 2002 when this question first arose there was no evidence of substantial deflation risks for the united states and for germany contrary to some conjectures at the time in contrast there was evidence of substantial deflation risks in japan

estimating and forecasting the real prices of crude oil a data rich model using a dynamic model averaging dma approach given that oil price fluctuations have been of great interest for macroeconomics in the recent years due to its important implications for future inflation economic growth and policy making the aim of this paper is to estimate and forecast west texas intermediate wti crude oil prices using a large monthly dataset that covers the period from march 1983 to december 2011 to achieve this aim forecasting with factor models offers a usual approach that utilizes large datasets however a forecasting model which simply includes all factors in state space equation and does not allow for time varying may be not suitable with a highly volatile market such as oil market to overcome these limitations an approach that accounts both for parameter and model uncertainty is employed in particular this study uses the dynamic model averaging dma approach suggested by koop and korobilis 2012 the key element of the dma approach is that it allows both for model and parameter to vary at each point of time by doing so the dma is robust to structural breaks empirical findings show that dma approach outperforms any other alternative model used in the forecasting exercise results also show that there is model but not parameter variation in this oil price forecasting exercise finally the findings suggest that the dma approach provides a better proxy of expected spot prices than future prices

predictors of success in new technology based ventures abstract several recent studies have examined the causes of success and failure in new ventures from these a three level analysis has evolved which considers the management the venture s strategy and its competitive environment empirical testing is still at an early stage but results have generally supported the three level approach however the findings are not very strong this study considers only high potential technology based new ventures the companies on which venture capitalists concentrate it suggests that such firms face unusual time pressures and uncertainty and that their responses to these forces are major determinants of success or failure we propose 11 easily measured qualities describing management the firm s strategy and its environment which should influence how quickly the venture can act these should predict a new venture s performance the 11 attributes are tested on 36 new ventures representing essentially all of the startup investments of a major venture capital firm between 1974 and 1982 the data are taken from the firms original business plans performance is measured from the subsequent financial history using the compound rate of return to all shareholders founders employees and investors the ventures in this sample are primarily based on electronic or information technologies they are highly successful as a group with an average compound rate of return of 98 per year they are also very risky the standard deviation of returns is 171 per year and in 11 of 36 cases the shareholders lost on their investments results from a single sample must always be treated cautiously however several findings are strong enough to merit further study and to be incorporated as a part of a process for evaluating new ventures 1 1 a set of four measures representing all three areas explains 57 of the variance the four completeness of the founding team technical superiority of the product expected time for product development and buyer concentration all behave as expected the first two have a positive effect the latter two have an inverted u shaped relationship with an optimum development time of 12 months and an optimum number of customers of approximately 60 three other measures prior shared experience of the founders competitive conditions and projected market share show an influence when management strategy and environment are examined one area at a time 2 2 these relatively simple measures predict success well probably at least as well as any other study has done using more subtle measures 3 3 the measures used in this study though they have strong predictive power apparently did not influence the young capitalists otherwise the relationships should have been different when the return to venture capital investors was used in place of the total return in fact they were the same this suggests that the venture capital investors did not give sufficient weight to the qualities that we consider and could make better choices by giving greater attention to those measures 4 4 prospective entrepreneurs and investors should benefit from using our model aspart of their screening processes specifically they might calculate a predicted rate of return if it is low say below 30 per year they should examine the reason for the low score and consider whether circumstances exist which outweigh or invalidate that apparent weakness 5 5 an additive model seems realistic that is one can combine dissimilar qualities with appropriate weighting for relative importance to arrive at an overall figure of merit with strong predictive power the specific parameters imply that a company must have a complete management team and score well on two of the remaining three measures in order to be an attractive opportunity more generally the model allows a practitioner to make a rough assessment of the tradeoffs among management product and industry this is important because few if any new companies have all the qualities an investor may desire 6 6 although individual qualities of the founders are no doubt important this remains a difficult matter to demonstrate statistically 7 7 firms exist in an ever changing competitive environment to the extent that these findings are valid beyond this sample they may have been recognized and incorporated in more recent new ventures if so this may change the nature of competition and alter the key determinants of success or failure

a catalytic and evolutionary approach to horizontal technology policies htps abstract this paper presents an evolutionary framework for horizontal technology policies htps especially market friendly ones involving project based incentives e g rd and they complement the more specific and well known selective and vertical policies aimed at individual sectors and technologies the analysis is conducted within a learning to innovate framework with emphasis on collective organizational learning search and market building the outcome is a technology policy cycle with distinct infant growth and mature phases proactive generation of a critical mass of projects for efficient learning and diffusion of innovation routines becomes the aim of the infant phase while the mature phase of the policy should focus on policy restructuring including drastic reductions in the support of routi projects and enhanced support of more complex types of innovation the paper also emphasizes the importance of a neutrality component in incentives in the infant phase of increasing selectivity and of building policy capabilities for efficient policy design and implementation

agency problem institutions and technology policy explaining taiwan s semiconductor industry development abstract taiwan has made significant progress in the semiconductor industry with government agencies and bureaucrats as the driving forces over the past 30 years taiwan s impressive achievement in the semiconductor industry clearly indicates that the government failures and agency problem usually associated with deep government involvement did not occur in taiwan why is that the case this paper proposes a principal agent framework for technology policy and applies the framework to discuss the institutional arrangements through which bureaucrats were controlled effectively in executing the semiconductor industry policies in taiwan by analyzing the institutional and organizational arrangements taiwanese leaders made to mitigate the agency problem this paper brings bureaucrats into the popular developmental state theory and emphasizes that the success of state intervention should not be taken for granted and it also brings politics into technology policy analysis and stresses the importance and complexity of agency problem in technology policy

are there gains from pooling real time oil price forecasts the answer as to whether there are gains from pooling real time oil price forecasts depends on the objective the approach of combining five of the leading forecasting models with equal weights dominates the strategy of selecting one model and using it for all horizons up to two years

the east asian miracle study does the bell toll for industrial strategy the world bank s east asian miracle study1 has been anticipated with considerable interest by the development community it was intended not least by the japanese government that financed it to be an objective re examination of the role of government interventions in economic particularly industrial development it reflected a widespread unease that the bank was too strongly committed to a neoliberal view of the development process 2 this approach evolved over the 1980s drawing mainly upon evidence from east asia and fuelled by a shift in mainstream economics and political perceptions in the leading developed countries it formed the basis of the bank s subsequent lending and policy advice and was at the core of the structural adjustment programs that have shaped policy in many developing countries this review confines itself to the study s analysis of industrial policy concentrating on the approach and the analysis of the established nies the four tigers

differences between learning processes in small tigers and large dragons learning processes of two color tv ctv firms within china abstract the main purpose of this paper is to describe the firm level learning processes by indigenous firms in china identify the differences between learning processes in small tigers and large dragons such as china this paper first sketches the history of the china s color tv ctv industry in which learning processes take place to put the companies case studies into context then this paper examines closely the actual experience of two major chinese firms in their practice of technological learning finally this paper finds that the most significant difference between learning processes in chinese firms and these four other tigers firms is that firms from four other tigers usually rely almost exclusively on export markets but chinese firms are mostly local market focused a novel contribution of this paper is its analysis of the issue the two chinese firms have followed not an export growth path but an local market focused path which proved to be much less successful in countries such as india latin america africa and former soviet union the success of this process in china hinges on the five critical factors 1 a number of multinational firms are increasing their presence in china 2 there is vibrant competition among domestic firms 3 the huge domestic market is a key incentive for local firms to invest in technological learning 4 chinese central government takes a phased approach to liberalization of the domestic market 5 there have a number of risk taking entrepreneurs with strategic version who make investment decisions on learning these factors should not be easily available to other developing countries in this regard china s experience has limited application to other developing countries

the transformation of competitive advantage in east asia an analysis of technological and trade specialisation summary in recent years there has been considerable interest in the relationship between a country s export competitiveness and the role played by technology in strengthening and maintaining competitive advantage a central feature of recent empirical work mainly focused on the oecd countries has rested on examining patterns of export and technological specialization between economies and sectors this paper moves attention away from the advanced industrialized economies to examine the trends for trade and technological specialization among the east asian developing economies in particular two aspects of specialization are examined first to what extent have patterns of competitive advantage changed over time and second to measure the relationship between patterns of trade and technological specialization important differences are found in the patterns of specialization and in the relationship between them among the advanced east asian economies and those catching up

the temporal nature of growth determinants in new bank foundings implications for new venture research design abstract several authors have suggested the founding period as a critical time in the development of a firm arguing that the resource and decision choices made at this point have a substantive impact on the firm s future yet historically most studies have measured new venture choices considerably after the founding period we suggest that the uniqueness of the founding event is important and test its validity through the examination of two implicit assertions these implicit assertions are those of temporal stability and temporal locus of growth determinants

the state and industrial strategy abstract the debate about the role of the state in promoting industrial growth in developing economies is reviewed we begin with the ideas of the early development economists of the 1950s and 1960s then take up two waves of neoclassical criticism respectively emphasizing the primacy of the market and the lack of autonomy and competence of the developmentalist state and sketch the elements of a countercritique the fact that all successfully developing economies apply industrial strategies incorporating institutional change is emphasized and boundary conditions and lessons from experience which delimit sensible strategic choices are pointed out

coordination failures and government policy a model with applications to east asia and eastern europe abstract poor countries must specialize in standardized labor intensive commodities middle income countries may have a richer menu of options if their labor force is reasonably well educated and skilled the multiplicity of equilibria is due to a coordination problem inherent in activities that require specialized inputs if no intermediate inputs are presently produced there may be little incentive for any single firm to do so on its own the economy may get stuck in a low wage low tech equilibrium an investment subsidy or a minimum wage policy can enhance welfare by moving the economy to a superior equilibrium

oil price shocks and their transmission mechanism in an oil exporting economy a var analysis informed by a dsge model abstract this paper examines the macroeconomic effects of oil price shocks and the oil shock transmission mechanism in an oil exporting country canada we use a structural var with sign restrictions that comes from a two country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium dsge model to jointly identify oil price domestic supply and u s and domestic monetary policy shocks this identification strategy not only controls for reverse causality from the canadian and u s macroeconomic conditions to the real oil prices but more importantly it also allows for contemporaneous interactions between the canadian and u s variables we find that oil shocks have a stimulative effect on canadian aggregate demand appreciate the canadian dollar improve the terms of trade and reduce real wages foreign disturbances including innovations in oil prices and the u s interest rate have a significant influence on canadian economic activities our counterfactual analysis indicates that the reaction of the u s interest rate as an indirect transmission channel for oil price shocks plays a moderate role in explaining the real exchange rate and inflation but has negligible impacts on the canadian output and interest rate

a model of venture capitalist investment activity the paper describes the activities of venture capitalists as an orderly process involving five sequential steps these are 1 deal origination the processes by which deals enter into consideration as investment prospects 2 deal screening a delineation of key policy variables which delimit investment prospects to a manageable few for in depth evaluation 3 deal evaluation the assessment of perceived risk and expected return on the basis of a weighting of several characteristics of the prospective venture and the decision whether or not to invest as determined by the relative levels of perceived risk and expected return 4 deal structuring the negotiation of the price of the deal namely the equity relinquished to the investor and the covenants which limit the risk of the investor 5 post investment activities the assistance to the venture in the areas of recruiting key executives strategic planning locating expansion financing and orchestrating a merger acquisition or public offering 41 venture capitalists provided data on a total of 90 deals which had received serious consideration in their firms the questionnaire measured the mechanism of initial contact between venture capitalist and entrepreneur the venture s industry the stage of financing and product development ratings of the venture on 23 characteristics an assessment of the potential return and perceived risk and the decision vis i vis whether to invest the modal venture represented in the database was a start up in the electronics industry with a production capability in place and seeking 1 million median in outside financing there is a high degree of cross referrals between venture capitalists particularly for the purposes of locating co investors factor analysis reduced the 23 characteristics of the deal to five underlying dimensions namely 1 market attractiveness size growth and access to customers 2 product differentiation uniqueness patents technical edge profit margin 3 managerial capabilities skills in marketing management finance and the references of the entrepreneur 4 environmental threat resistance technology life cycle barriers to competitive entry insensitivity to business cycles and down side risk protection 5 cash out potential future opportunities to realize capital gains by merger acquisition or public offering the results of regression analyses showed expected return to be determined by market attractiveness and product differentiation r2 0 22 perceived risk is determined by managerial capabilities and environmental threat resistance r2 0 33 finally a discriminant analysis correctly predicted in 89 4 of the cases whether or not a venture capitalist was willing to commit funds to the deal on the basis of the expected return and perceived risk the reactions of seven venture capitalists who reviewed the model s specification were used to test its validity

new venture strategy and profitability a venture capitalist s assessment abstract this study uses theoretically justified criteria from the industrial organization io strategy literature and applies it to a new domain namely venture capitalists decision making specifically the study investigates the types of information venture capitalists utilize when evaluating new ventures and how venture capitalists use this information to assess likely new venture profitability in the interest of advancing our understanding of the decision making policies of venture capitalists this study addresses many of the limitations of previous research a review of io research suggests important relationships between a number of strategy variables and new venture profitability some of the relationships proposed by io strategy research are contingent in nature the strategy variables and their relationships with profitability are investigated in the domain of venture capitalists decision making individual and aggregate decision making analyses identified those strategy variables criteria venture capitalists utilize in assessing likely new venture profitability namely timing key success factor stability lead time competitive rivalry educational capability industry related competence timing key success factor stability interaction timing lead time interaction and timing educational capability interaction on average the most important criterion for venture capitalists in their assessment of profitability is industry related competence the second tier of importance is competitive rivalry timing and educational capability the third tier of importance is lead time key success factor stability and timing lead time interaction other interactions are less important therefore while venture capitalists use contingent decision policies main effects dominate if venture capitalists use a reported 8 to 12 minutes on average to evaluate a business plan sandberg 1986 then this study s findings may help the inexperienced venture capitalist allocate time towards assessing those attributes of primary importance although more complex relationships exist between the attributes the inexperienced venture capitalist can take comfort from this study s findings that main effects dominant amongst senior venture capitalists senior venture capitalists may take less comfort from their importance placed on main effects in light of research from io which suggests the importance of contingent relationships the results may also have practical application towards training how should venture capital firms train their new employees should venture capital firms rely solely on experienced venture capitalists lecturing the inexperienced on the criteria they use in assessing a new venture proposal like most decision makers venture capitalists have limited insight into their assessments and venture capital firms need to be aware of the gap between espoused policies and policies in use the information being taught needs to be supplemented with venture capitalists decision making research that investigates decision policies in use such as this study venture capitalist training could also involve experiential learning in conjunction with cognitive feedback about the decision policies used to accelerate the learning process experiential learning using cognitive feedback maximizes industry related learning while minimizing the cost of inexperienced decisions for the entrepreneur seeking capital this increased understanding of venture capitalists decision making may help them better target their business plans and presentations at those criteria venture capitalists find most critical to the profitability of a new venture

the potential of actuarial decision models abstract venture capitalists vcs are considered experts in identifying high potential new ventures gazelles vc backed ventures survive at a much higher rate than those ventures backed by other sources kunkel and hofer 1991 sandberg 1986 timmons 1994 thus the vc decision process has received tremendous attention within the entrepreneurship literature nonetheless vc backed firms still fail at a surprisingly high rate 20 moreover another 20 of the vc s portfolio fails to provide any return to the vc therefore there is room for improvement in the vc investment process the three staged investment process often begins with venture screening first vcs screen the hundreds of proposals they receive to assess which deserve further consideration those ventures that survive the initial stage are then subjected to extensive due diligence finally the vc and entrepreneur negotiate terms of the investment considering the amount of time that due diligence and negotiation of terms may take it is imperative that vcs minimize their efforts during screening so that only those ventures with the most potential proceed to the next stage yet at the same time the screening process should also be careful not to eliminate gazelles prematurely vcs are in a quandary how can they efficiently screen venture proposals without unduly rejecting high potential investments the answer may be to use actuarial decision aides to assist in the screening process actuarial decision aides are models that decompose a decision into component parts or cues and recombine those cues to predict the potential outcome for example an actuarial model about the vc decision might decompose a venture proposal into decisions about the entrepreneurial team the product the market etc the sub component decisions are than recombined to reach an overall assessment of the venture s potential such models have been developed in a number of decision domains e g bank lending psychological evaluations etc and been found to be very robust specifically these models often outperform the very experts that they are meant to mimic the current study had 53 practicing vcs participate in a policy capturing experiment the participants examined 50 ventures and judged each venture s success potential would the venture ultimately succeed or fail likewise identical information about each venture was input into two different types of actuarial models one actuarial model a bootstrap model used information factors that vcs had identified as being most important to making a good investment decision the second actuarial model was derived by roure and keeley 1990 the roure and keeley model best distinguished between success and failure in a study of 36 high technology ventures the bootstrap model outperformed all but one participating vc he achieved the same accuracy rate as the bootstrap model the roure and keely model although less successful than the bootstrap model outperformed over half of the participating vcs the implications of this study are that properly developed actuarial models may be successful screening decision aides the success of the actuarial models may be attributed to their consistency across different proposals and time the models always weight the information cues the same vcs as are all human decision makers may often be biased by differing salient information cues that cause them to misinterpret or ignore other important cues for example a vc may overlook product weaknesses if s he is familiar with the entrepreneur putting forth a particular proposal although the current study developed a generalized actuarial model each vc firm could create screening models that fit it s particular decision criteria the models could then be used by junior associates or lower level employees to perform an initial screen of received venture proposals thereby freeing senior associates time

the economic effects of energy price shocks large fluctuations in energy prices have been a distinguishing characteristic of the u s economy since the 1970s turmoil in the middle east rising energy prices in the u s and evidence of global warming recently have reignited interest in the link between energy prices and economic performance this paper addresses a number of the key issues in this debate what are energy price shocks and where do they come from how responsive is energy demand to changes in energy prices how do consumers expenditure patterns evolve in response to energy price shocks how do energy price shocks affect u s real output inflation and stock prices why do energy price increases seem to cause recessions but energy price decreases do not seem to cause expansions why has there been a surge in the price of oil in recent years why has this new energy price shock not caused a recession so far have the effects of energy price shocks waned since the 1980s and if so why as the paper demonstrates it is critical to account for the endogeneity of energy prices and to differentiate between the effects of demand and supply shocks in energy markets when answering these questions

the validity of profits structure studies with particular reference to the ftc s line of business data the simple proposition that consumerdamaging collusion is more likely to occur when there are fewer competitors has given rise not only to legal restrictions of economic activity thought to restrict output but also to an enormous amount of empirical work attempting to relate market concentration to the exercise of monopoly power most such studies measured market structure by an index of concentration for example four firm concentration or herfindahl and performance by accounting profit for example net profit divided by assets or price cost margins sales less direct costs divided by sales from the positive statistically significant correlations often found between greater concentration and profit with other factors presumably accounted for some researchers conclude that increases in concentration are anticompetitive and that concentration therefore is bad the concentration profits studies have been criticized essentially on two grounds one is that the positive relationship is not indicative of collusive behavior in particular oliver williamson 1968 john mcgee 1971 harold demsetz 1973 1974 and sam peltzman 1977 point out that higher profits could result from efficiencies experienced by large firms which resulted both in greater market shares and high levels of concentration analytical arguments show that higher profits logically follow as much from lower costs that are associated with higher levels of concentration as from collusion determined higher prices some empirical evidence that supports this belief is presented by demsetz peltzman and bradley gale and ben branch 1982 however their findings have been contested on the grounds that the data used are biased or inadequate or that the researchers have not demonstrated that the observed higher profits greater concentration relationship was caused by lower costs 2 the second criticism is that available data provide an inadequate basis for such conclusions the concentration numbers are based usually on industries defined by the commerce department s standard industrial classifications sic the sic definitions tend to be supply production rather than demand determined include nonhomogeneous products and exclude sales of similar products that are included in different sic groups or are imported the profit data are taken from accounting reports that provide poor measures of economic values weiss 1974 describes many of these problems however he does not believe that these shortcomings invalidate the studies as weiss 1979 concludes

a venture capital model of the development process for new ventures abstract for years researchers have hypothesized that new ventures develop in a fairly predictable chronological process by evolving through various functional and strategic developmental stages however cross comparable longitudinal data from large numbers of ventures are still not available to validate these stages of development hypotheses the study sought to determine whether venture capital firms which have extensive experience with the longitudinal development of new ventures operate in accord with a common theory about how this process operates these findings also represent a first step toward empirically validating various elements of stages of development theories the study analyzed the perceptions of the ceo or managing partner of 73 u s venture capital firms about key features of the development process for new businesses venture capital firms were asked whether they differentiated stages in the development process for each such stage information was elicited on what the stage was called distinguishing characteristics of ventures in that stage key developmental goals or benchmarks typically accomplished in that stage and the major risks involved sufficient consensus was found on these aspects of the development process for a venture capital model of this process to be constructed the model consists of five sequential stages 1 seed 2 start up 3 second stage 4 third stage and 5 exit stage strong consensus was found on distinguishing characteristics of ventures in early stages of development key developmental goals or benchmarks in various stages and major developmental risks associated with each stage consensus on developmental characteristics diminished somewhat in later stages presumably because of differential rates of development among investees as well as differing degrees of success in accomplishing earlier objectives nevertheless sufficient differences in functional characteristics remained to clearly distinguish later stage investees from early stage investees and to enable differentiations in maturity between third stage and exit stage investees the venture capital developmental model exhibits both similarities and differences from stages of development paradigms first the venture capital model is primarily strategic and market oriented in focus it gives lesser emphasis to the elements of organizational structure management style and management specialization than some stages of development theories although these elements are identified by venture capitalists as potential areas of risk should problems arise second like stages of development paradigms the venture capital model is universal and not venture specific venture capital firms appear to view all potentially feasible business concepts despite differences in product organizational complexity rate of development or ultimate size as passing through the same process sequence albeit at different speeds and with varying degrees of success third the model while reflecting the financial objectives of venture capital investors is primarily shaped by the naturally occurring functional development of investees it does not represent arbitrary requirements imposed on investees to segment the developmental process into steps that would not otherwise occur the development of venture capital investees is influenced by the strategic and financial objectives of venture capital firms thus the model does not necessarily mirror the strategic and dynamic elements of the development process for firms that are not intended by their founders to grow rapidly and then go public or be acquired by a larger corporation or for ventures that must depend upon internally generated funds or bank loans to finance development the venture capital model representing perceptions of 73 venture capital firms derived from longitudinal data for many hundreds of new ventures appears to empirically confirm the concept of an evolutionary progression through key functional and strategic steps which is a central element of most stages of development hypotheses the study did not go into sufficient depth however to provide detail on the influence of factors such as organizational structure and management styles and control systems on development these factors are central elements in several stages of development theories and are arguably of critical importance in the growth survival and financial success of new ventures

new technology based firms in innovation networks symplectic and generative impacts abstract the traditional body of research on new technology based firms reflects the linear sequential view of the technological innovation process the modern innovation theory views the innovation process as a complex interative process that is essentially systemic in character the systemic view of the technological innovation process largely remains to be implemented in research on new technology based firms the present study represents an attempt to bridge this gap by applying a systemic approach to research on new technology based firms the empirical part of the present study develops and empirically tests a model that classifies new technology based firms into science based firms and engineering based firms the two categories are defined in terms of the functional relationship between the new technology based firm and the articulation process of basic technologies in the model new technology based firms are analyzed in terms of the systemic knowledge conversion process to which they are attached the model receives support in three empirical databases compiled among new technology based firms in finland the united kingdom and silicon valley the analysis of the silicon valley database is the first ever systematic survey of the spin off firms of stanford university

crude oil price analysis and forecasting a perspective of new triangle abstract in this paper the new structural characteristics and core influencing factors of the crude oil prices are summarized based on previous representative research results firstly a newly dynamic bayesian structural time series model dbsts is developed to investigate the oil prices in particular google trend is introduced as an indicator to reflect the impact of search data on the oil price secondly the spike and slab method is employed to select core influence factors finally the bayesian model average bma is utilized to predict the oil price experimental results confirm that the supply and demand of global crude oil and the financial market are still the main factors affecting the oil price furthermore google trend can reflect the changes in the crude oil price to a certain extent moreover the impact of shale oil production on the oil price is gradually increasing yet remains relatively small in addition the dbsts model can identify turning points in historical data such as the 2008 financial crisis finally the findings suggest the dbsts model has good predictive capabilities in short term prediction making it suitable for analyzing the crude oil prices

technology policy for industrialization an integrative framework and korea s experience abstract first this article reviews three policy perspectives 1 the market mechanism perspective includes the demand for and supply of technology and the linkage between the two 2 the technology flow perspective consists of technology transfer diffusion and r d 3 the dynamic perspective refers to technological trajectory it then integrates these three perspectives to develop a new three dimensional framework that may be useful to analyze technology policy for industrialization second this article applies the framework to analyze korea s technology policy as a case in point conclusions are 1 technology policies on foreign technology transfer technology diffusion and r d should change over time in response to changing external environment 2 technology policies become effective only when three major components policies to promote the demand side of technology policies to promote the supply side of technology and policies to provide effective links between demand and supply sides are well balanced finally it discusses implications for other developing countries

forecasting the real prices of crude oil using forecast combinations over time varying parameter models abstract in this paper we forecast real prices of crude oil using real time forecast combinations over time varying parameter tvp models with single predictor we reveal the significant predictability at all horizons up to 24 months the mean squared predictive error reduction over the benchmark of no change forecast is as high as 17 and the directional accuracy as high as 0 645 a combination with tvp models is found to generate more accurate forecasts than the same combination with constant coefficient models because the forecast errors of individual tvp models are correlated at a lower degree we also evaluate the forecasting performance in the framework of density forecasting our results indicate that the benchmark model can be significantly outperformed by forecast combination at the horizons longer than 3 months

venture capitalists decision policies across three countries an institutional theory perspective this paper examines the influence of economic institutions upon venture capitalists vcs decision policies we conducted policy capturing experiments on 119 vcs across three countries representing distinct economic institutions us mature market economy south korea emerging economy and china transitional economy results show that vcs in rules based market economies us rely upon market information to a greater extent than vcs in emerging economies korea and chinese vcs transitional economy weight human capital factors more heavily than either us or korean vcs findings suggest that although professional institutions may dictate which information is included in vc decision policies the extent to which that information is emphasized is determined partly by the economic institution in which the decision maker operates journal of international business studies 2007 38 691 708 doi 10 1057 palgrave jibs 8400291

the evolution of new technology ventures over 20 years patterns of failure merger and survival abstract relatively few studies of entrepreneurs have examined the evolution of business ventures over a long period of time this paper summarizes the fate of 250 technology based companies founded in northern california during the 1960s the three outcomes studied are failure merger and continued operation in addition interviews with a dozen founders of firms that survived the entire 20 year period shed light on the founders own interpretations of why they succeeded by 1988 50 of the firms in the sample had failed 32 had merged or been acquired and 18 had survived as independent businesses there was a steady and occasionally sharp erosion in the number of survivors throughout the period a striking finding was that fully 78 of the surviving firms in 1988 still had one or more of the original founders in place among the factors predicting failure were product market problems such as product timing difficulties problems of product design or inappropriate distribution channels financial difficulties such as initial undercapitalization or problems with the venture capital relationship and managerial key employee problems such as imbalance in the management team or succumbing to the trappings of success the firms in the data base which were subsequently merged or acquired exhibited a number of macro and micro characteristics from a macro point of view the merger acquisition rates seem to have been lower than the national rate in the late 1960s higher in the later 1970s and similar in the 1980s from a micro point of view discernible patterns existed among acquired firms such as size and year since founding interviews with surviving founders suggested that relations between founders banking and credit problems attempted takeovers and international expansion were among the key crises that had to be overcome by the surviving firms of particular interest was the diversity of motives for founding the business reported by the survivors in addition to the desire to achieve wealth or to be independent we heard mentioned loyalty to a product or technology which would otherwise disappear and commitment to satisfying a customer group also noted were founders who indicated that their career as an entrepreneur came about primarily by accident five themes emerging from the interviews were characterized by the surviving founders as business lessons learned 1 know yourself 2 love your product 3 honor your customer 4 treat your people well and 5 keep your integrity the interviews in conjunction with the data on surviving firms are useful in expanding our understanding of the type of person that starts a business and why some start ups succeed over the long term particularly noteworthy is the number affirms who survived without ever growing larger theories of long term entrepreneurial success may need to take risk aversion into account

why not greater catch up by chinese firms the impact of ipr corporate governance and technology intensity on late comer strategies abstract how can late comer firms lcfs in developing economies manage their development of technological capability and within it their ip strategically in order to become fully competitive internationally under what conditions external and internal are they likely to succeed this paper develops a theoretical framework for understanding lcfs technology strategy and predicting its outcome then applies it to the cases of three chinese firms in sectors at different levels of technology intensity this yields insights as to its limitations and further development these help explain mainland china s very limited catch up in high technology sectors and to a lesser extent in medium high technology we show how our findings can be reconciled with the much greater success of korean firms some 20 years earlier if the effect of corporate governance differences is recognised

overcoming the liability of newness entrepreneurial action and the emergence of china s private solar photovoltaic firms abstract this study explores how entrepreneurs introducing a new organizational form can build legitimacy and capabilities to overcome significant liabilities of newness and how their actions and the institutional structure co evolve our multiple case study design enabled us to explicate specific actions that entrepreneurs founding china s private solar photovoltaic pv firms took as they built organizational capabilities and established their legitimacy vis a vis resource holders and global markets we identified three legitimacy based strategies they used leveraging their existing sources of legitimacy aligning their actions with established institutional rules and norms and enacting the institutional environment to change perceptions of what is legitimate we also found a stark contrast between the early and late entrants the early entrants had to build an effective organizational capability and establish their own firm s legitimacy as well as establish the legitimacy of the private chinese solar pv firm as a viable organizational form both domestically and abroad later entrants could leverage the legitimacy established by the early entrants enabling them to more easily and quickly access external resources and become competitive our findings also suggest an important role for government in promoting and supporting entrepreneurship that complements well established approaches namely through its policies and actions the government can create an environment in which experimentation and exploration is legitimate thereby making it easier for entrepreneurs new ventures and new organizational forms to access critical resources and realize their potential