price and income elasticities of crude oil import demand in south africa a cointegration analysis abstract this paper examines the demand for imported crude oil in south africa as a function of real income and the price of crude oil over the period 1980 2006 we carried out the johansen co integration multivariate analysis to determine the long run income and price elasticities a unique long run cointegration relationship exists between crude oil imports and the explanatory variables the short run dynamics are estimated by specifying a general error correction model the estimated long run price and income elasticities of 0 147 and 0 429 suggest that import demand for crude oil is price and income inelastic there is also evidence of unidirectional long run causality running from real gdp to crude oil imports

optimal card payment systems abstract this paper presents a model of a card payment system to address the pricing and rules that govern such systems it evaluates the social optimality of privately set interchange fees and the adoption of a rule by payment systems to prevent merchants surcharging for card transactions using two extremes of merchant pricing monopolistic pricing and perfect competition both types of merchant pricing constrain the ability of card schemes to use interchange fees and the no surcharge rule in anticompetitive ways although for quite different reasons the positive role of the no surcharge rule in preventing excessive merchant surcharging is also highlighted

the economics of two sided markets at a local best buy a child places a new sony playstation 3 on the cashier s counter while the parents dig out their visa card the gaming system and the payment card may appear to have little connection other than this purchase however these two items share an important characteristic that is generating a series of economic insights and has important implications for strategic decision making and economic policymaking both video game systems and payment cards are examples of two sided markets broadly speaking a two sided market is one in which 1 two sets of agents interact through an intermediary or platform and 2 the decisions of each set of agents affects the outcomes of the other set of agents typically through an externality in the case of a video game system the intermediary is the console producer sony in the scenario above while the two sets of agents are consumers and video game developers neither consumers nor game developers will be interested in the playstation if the other party is not similarly a successful payment card requires both consumer usage and merchant acceptance where both consumers and merchants value each others participation many more products fit into this paradigm such as search engines newspapers and almost any advertisersupported media examples in which consumers often negatively value rather than positively value the participation of the other side as well as most software or title based operating systems and consumer electronics malls which seek retailers and consumers convention organizers which seek buyers and sellers dating services which seek men and women and the journal of economic perspectives which seeks content and readership all experience the economics of two sided markets the multi sided nature of many internet and high technology markets as well as

the future of natural gas consumption in beijing guangdong and shanghai an assessment utilizing markal natural gas could possibly become a si0gnificant portion of the future fuel mix in china however there is still great uncertainty surrounding the size of this potential market and therefore its impact on the global gas trade in order to identify some of the important factors that might drive natural gas consumption in key demand areas in china we focus on three regions beijing guangdong and shanghai using the economic optimization model markal we initially assume that the drivers are government mandates of emissions standards reform of the chinese financial structure the price and available supply of natural gas and the rate of penetration of advanced power generating and end use the results from the model show that the level of natural gas consumption is most sensitive to policy scenarios which strictly limit so2 emissions from power plants the model also revealed that the low cost of capital for power plants in china boosts the economic viability of capital intensive coal fired plants this suggests that reform within the financial sector could be a lever for encouraging increased natural gas use

demand for gasoline in kuwait an empirical analysis using cointegration techniques abstract this paper estimates the demand for gasoline in kuwait for the period 1970 1989 using a cointegration and error correction model ecm it is found that gasoline demand is inelastic with respect to price in the short and long run and while it is elastic in the long run gasoline demand is inelastic with respect to income in the short run this suggests that gasoline demand response to income changes is higher in the long run than in the short run furthermore gasoline consumption adjusts towards its long run level with about 52 of the adjustment occurring in the first year

why do payment card networks charge proportional fees credit and debit cards have become an important part of our payment system and they affect a large portion of the consumer and merchant populations recent federal reserve studies found that 80 2 percent of us consumers have debit cards and 78 3 percent have credit cards in a typical month 31 0 percent of consumer payments are paid for with debit cards and 21 3 percent with credit cards kevin foster et al 2010 in 2006 debit cards were used in 25 3 billion transactions for a total value of 1 0 trillion and credit cards were used in 21 7 billion transactions for a total value of 2 1 trillion geoffrey r gerdes 2008 along with this development some controversy has emerged because merchants are critical of the card fees challenging both the fee structure and the level 1 this has generated heated debates among researchers practitioners and policymakers in recent years on the research side a large body of literature called two sided mar ket theory has been developed to evaluate payment card market competition and pricing issues 2 on the policy side several bills are currently under consideration in the united states congress if passed the new legislation could open the possibility of regulating card fees in the united states 3 similar trends are taking place in many other countries more than 20 countries and areas around the world have started

electricity consumption real gdp causality nexus evidence from a bootstrapped causality test for 30 oecd countries the goal of this paper is to examine any causal effects between electricity consumption and real gdp for 30 oecd countries we use a bootstrapped causality testing approach and unravel evidence in favour of electricity consumption causing real gdp in australia iceland italy the slovak republic the czech republic korea portugal and the uk the implication is that electricity conservation policies will negatively impact real gdp in these countries however for the rest of the 22 countries our findings suggest that electricity conversation policies will not affect real gdp

energy consumption real income and temporal causality results from a multi country study based on cointegration and error correction modelling techniques abstract unlike previous studies on the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth this paper illustrates how the finding of cointegration i e long term equilibrium relationship between these variables may be used in testing granger causality based on the most recent johansen s multivariate cointegration tests preceded by various unit root or non stationarity tests we test for cointegration between total energy consumption and real income of six asian economies india pakistan malaysia singapore indonesia and the philippines non rejection of cointegration between variables rules out granger non causality and imples at least one way of granger causality either unidirectional or bidirectionial secondly by using a dynamic vector error correction model we then analyse the direction of granger causation and hence the within sample granger exogeneity or endogeneity of each of the variables thirdly the relative strength of the causality is gauged through the dynamic variance decomposition technique by decomposing the total impact of an unanticipated shock to each of the variables beyond the sample period into proportions attributable to shocks in the other variables including its own in the bivariate system results based on these tools of methodology indicate that while all pair wise relationships shared common univariate integrational properties only relationships for three countries india pakistan and indonesia were cointegrated for these countries temporal causality results were mixed with unidirectional causality from energy to income for india exactly the reverse for indonesia and mutual causality for pakistan the vdcs were not inconsistent with these results and provided us with an additional insight as to the relatively more dominant direction of causation in pakistan simple bivariate vector autoregressive models for the three non cointegrated systems did not indicate any direction of causality significantly in either direction

energy microfinance intervention for below poverty line households in india more than 72 of india s population resides in rural india1 and it also has a high concentration of people living under abject poverty of the total rural population 27 1 28 3 lives below the poverty line2 bpl a lack of energy finance options is hampering the quality of life of the bpl community the members of this disadvantaged household which forms 27 1 and 23 6 of the india s rural and urban population3 has no ready access to mainstream finance or know how of sustainable energy products nor do they have access to energy service providing agency this lack of energy finance options has provided the marginalized population little means to break the conventional energy paradigm and the corresponding poverty cycle considering the afore mentioned problem we propose an energy microfinance intervention or a model that encompasses two independent entities one has an energy expertise and the other possesses finance management skills alternately we also propose a special purpose entity that comprises of these two entities this entity fosters different institutional technical and financial engineering approaches to the provision of energy finance and infrastructure services necessary for poverty alleviation

a regulatory adjustment process for the determination of the optimal percentage requirement in an electricity market with tradable green certificates abstract a system of tradable green certificates tgcs is a market based subsidy scheme designed to promote electricity generation from renewable energy sources such as wind power under a tgc system the principal policy instrument is the percentage requirement which stipulates the percentage of total electricity production green plus black that must be obtained from renewable sources in this paper we propose a regulatory adjustment process that a regulator can employ to determine the socially optimal percentage requirement explicitly accounting for environmental damages resulting from black electricity generation

scenario analysis on co2 emissions reduction potential in china s electricity sector abstract with the approach of the year 2012 a new round of international negotiations has energized the entire climate change community with this analyses on sector based emissions reduction and mitigation options will provide the necessary information to form the debate in order to assess the co2 emissions reduction potential of china s electricity sector this research employs three scenarios based on the long range energy alternative planning system leap model to simulate the different development paths in this sector the baseline scenario the current policy scenario and the new policy scenario seek to gradually increase the extent of industrial restructuring and technical advancement results imply that energy consumption and co2 emission in china s electricity sector will rise rapidly in all scenarios until 2030 triple or quadruple the 2000 level however through structural adjustment in china s electricity sector and through implementing technical mitigation measures various degrees of abatement can be achieved these reductions range from 85 to 350 million tons co2 per year figures that correspond to different degrees of cost and investment demand side management and circulating fluidized bed combustion cfbc ranked in order are employed prior to use to realize emissions reduction followed by supercritical plants and the renovation of conventional thermal power plants in the long term nuclear and hydropower will play the dominant role in contributing to emissions reduction it is also suggested that a self restraint reduction commitment should be employed to help contribute to the reduction of emission intensity an avenue that is more practical for china in light of its current development phase setting the year 2000 as the base year the intensity reduction target could possibly range from 4 2 to 19 4 dependent on the implementation effectiveness of various mitigation options

energy and national income in korea further evidence on the role of omitted variables abstract results of this paper indicate that the real oil price is a major determinant of real national income and energy consumption the combined effects of real money and real government expenditure on real income and energy consumption are also substantial a lack of causality or the causality between energy and real income in prior studies is due to the omitted variables results also confirm that the two oil price shocks combined adversely affected real national income

household electricity end use consumption results from econometric and engineering models information about total electricity consumption is available for most households however the electricity consumption related to different end uses e g space heating lighting and services from household appliances are usually not metered metering data are costly to achieve and in this paper we study two methods for end use estimation which can be applied on household data for appliance holdings demographic and economic variables the first method is the engineering model which has been used to calculate the so far only documented norwegian end use results applied on data from a norwegian energy survey the second method is an econometric conditional demand model applied on data from the same survey we compare the numerical results from the two models and give some recommendations regarding choice of end use approach and what questions to implement in household surveys designed to disaggregate electricity consumption

the fuelwood market in greece an empirical approach abstract wood has been since ancient times the basic household heating medium nowadays wood remains the primary energy source in rural areas of developing countries mainly in africa in greece the domestic demand of fuelwood is relied mainly on the fuelwood domestic supply especially during the post war period the domestic supply satisfies adequately the domestic demand eliminating the role of imports the present study surveys the long run relationship between the fuelwood prices of different forest species in order to determine the role of the special market conditions in their price formation in addition the error correction model is estimated in order to survey the direction of the granger causality among the prices of the fuelwood forest species the implementation of the impulse response analysis and the variance decomposition confirmed that coniferous and beech fuelwood producer price may account for the volatility of the oak fuelwood producer price this result may contribute greatly to the conservation of oak forest an important carbon storage forest ecosystem

considering the energy water and food nexus towards an integrated modelling approach the areas of energy water and food policy have numerous interwoven concerns ranging from ensuring access to services to environmental impacts to price volatility these issues manifest in very di

electricity demand analysis using cointegration and arima modelling a case study of turkey in the early 2000s the republic of turkey has initiated an ambitious reform program in her electricity market which requires privatization liberalization as well as a radical restructuring the most controversial reason behind or justification for recent reforms has been the rapid electricity demand growth that is to say the whole reform process has been a part of the endeavors to avoid the so called energy crisis using cointegration analysis and autoregressive integrated moving average arima modelling the present article focuses on this issue by both providing an electricity demand estimation and forecast and comparing the results with official projections the study concludes first that consumers respond to price and income changes is quite limited and therefore there is a need for economic regulation in turkish electricity market and second that the current official electricity demand projections highly overestimate the electricity demand which may endanger the development of both a coherent energy policy in general and a healthy electricity market in particular

an econometric study on china s economy energy and environment to the year 2030 abstract an integrated econometric model consisting of macroeconomic sub model energy sub model and environment sub model was developed and used to perform a long term simulation study for china in the coming 30 years the potential of gdp growth will be around 7 annually and the continuation of rapid economic growth could result in insurmountable difficulties for energy security air protection and co2 emission reductions for the sustainable development more comprehensive measures should be adopted including improvements in energy efficiency more rapid energy switching from coal to natural gas and renewable energy sources imposing carbon tax development of clean coal technology establishment of strategic petroleum stockpiling enforcement of air protection etc

an application of cremer s planning procedure to the optimal commodity taxation problem abstract using a computational technique developed by cremer we present a decentralized procedure which determines optimal commodity taxes iteratively under minimal information requirements this analysis extends the class of non convex optimization problems to which cremer s procedure is applicable

two sided market r d and payments system evolution abstract it takes many years for more efficient electronic payments to be widely used and the fees that merchants consumers pay for using those services are increasing decreasing over time we address these puzzles by studying payments system evolution with a dynamic model in a two sided market setting we calibrate the model to u s payment card data and conduct welfare and policy analysis our analysis shows that the market power of electronic payment networks plays important roles in explaining the slow adoption and asymmetric price changes and the welfare impact of regulations may vary significantly through the endogenous r d channel

projection of future transport energy demand of thailand the objective of this study is to project transport energy consumption in thailand for the next 20 years the study develops log linear regression models and feed forward neural network models using the as independent variables national gross domestic product population and the numbers of registered vehicles the models are based on 20 year historical data between years 1989 and 2008 and are used to project the trends in future transport energy consumption for years 2010 2030 the final log linear models include only gross domestic product since all independent variables are highly correlated it was found that the projection results of this study were in the range of 54 84 59 05 million tonnes of oil equivalent 2 5 times the 2008 consumption the projected demand is only 61 65 of that predicted in a previous study which used the leap model this major discrepancy in transport energy demand projections suggests that projects related to this key indicator should take into account alternative projections because these numbers greatly affect plans policies and budget allocation for national energy management

can market oriented economic reforms contribute to energy efficiency improvement evidence from china since china accelerated its market oriented economic reforms at the end of 1992 its energy intensity has declined 3 6 annually over 1993 2005 however its energy intensity declined 4 2 annually during its first reform period 1979 1992 therefore can we conclude that the accelerated marketization since the end of 1992 has made no contribution to its energy efficiency improvement in order to answer this challenging question we examine the changes of energy own price elasticity as well as the elasticities of substitution between energy and non energy capital and labor in china during the periods of 1979 1992 and 1993 2003 generally in transition or developing economies holding the technology and output level fixed if the energy own price elasticity algebraic value declines or the substitution elasticity between factors rises they will contribute to energy efficiency improvement our empirical study finds that 1 during 1979 1992 the energy own price elasticity is positive 0 285 and capital energy labor energy are both morishima complementary which indicates a distorted energy price and inefficient allocation and 2 during 1993 2003 the own price elasticity for energy is negative 1 236 and capital energy and labor energy are both morishima substitute all factor demands become more elastic and all elasticities of substitution increase the implication is that the accelerated marketization contributes substantially to energy efficiency improvement since 1993 c 2006 elsevier ltd all rights reserved

dissemination of cooking energy alternatives in india a review abstract energy requirements for cooking account for 36 of total primary energy consumption in india the rural and urban populaces depend mainly on non commercial fuels to meet their energy needs diverse urban growth patterns have led to structural changes in economy and have important ramifications on energy consumption in household sector it is observed that india follows income based ladder starting with fuelwood and ending with sophisticated fuels like liquefied petroleum gas lpg and electricity this paper discusses cooking energy dissemination in the country with an objective of understanding the underlying socioeconomic factors governing the utilization of various fuels energy carriers in cooking the diffusion of renewable energy devices is observed to be far below their estimated potential policy interventions required for better dissemination of renewable energy based devices are also discussed

the potential for greenhouse gases mitigation in household sector of iran cases of price reform efficiency improvement and scenario for 2000 2010 abstract iran s demographic profile is sharply youth oriented and this upcoming generation s needs for employment and housing coupled with low energy efficiency vectors and consumption patterns has created a constant rise in energy demand and greenhouse gas ghgs emissions in the residential sector improved energy efficiency as a national policy lynchpin for demand reduction and ghgs mitigation has become commonplace opec countries however iran included suffer an obvious lack of consumer incentive because of low fuel prices this study evaluates the twin impacts of price reform and efficiency programs on energy carriers consumption and ghgs mitigation in the iranian housing sector for this purpose the demand functions for energy carriers has been developed by econometrics process models the results reveal that price elasticity for electricity demand in the constant elasticity model for the short run while the long run is 0 142 and 0 901 respectively in the variable elasticity model the 250 increase in electricity rates in the short run resulted in a price elasticity change from 0 02 to 0 475 hence the 250 increase in electricity pricing for the long run resulted in the price elasticity change from 0 15 to 2 0 finally aided by a scenario based approach the impact of fuel pricing and efficiency improvement in trends of energy demand and ghgs emission were assessed in a scenarios base developed on two different cases of business as usual bau and management the results indicate that in the bau case between 2000 and 2011 the energy demand and co2 emission increases with an annual growth rate of 7 5 and 6 8 respectively comparatively if the energy carriers price is increased to border price and energy efficiency programs are implemented they will stimulate carriers demand and co2 emissions growth rate decreases to 4 94 and 3 1 respectively

renewable energy consumption and income in emerging economies abstract increased economic growth and demand for energy in emerging economies is creating an opportunity for these countries to increase their usage of renewable energy this paper presents and estimates two empirical models of renewable energy consumption and income for a panel of emerging economies panel cointegration estimates show that increases in real per capita income have a positive and statistically significant impact on per capita renewable energy consumption in the long term a 1 increase in real income per capita increases the consumption of renewable energy per capita in emerging economies by approximately 3 5 long term renewable energy per capita consumption price elasticity estimates are approximately equal to 0 70

energy consumption practices of rural households in north china basic characteristics and potential for low carbon development reducing the climate impact of rural household energy consumption in china is complicated since it is bound up with deeply routinized daily practices and dependent from existing infrastructural systems of energy supply to assess the potential for low carbon development we first estimate the overall co2 emissions of rural households followed by a more in depth description and characterization of the different energy use practices within the households space heating turns out to be the largest emission source among domestic energy practices in north china we present lifestyle and context related factors that help to explain existing differences in domestic energy use practices of households the potential for low carbon development is discussed both at the demand side and the supply side at the demand side the use of more efficient technologies and cleaner energy sources for space heating seems to be a high potential measure for achieving low carbon households at the supply side the reduction of rural domestic co2 emissions could be effectively supported by making available to householders renewable and cleaner energy sources and technologies in order to be effective such low carbon energy options should take into account the income characteristics and lifestyles of rural householders

energy models for demand forecasting a review abstract energy is vital for sustainable development of any nation be it social economic or environment in the past decade energy consumption has increased exponentially globally energy management is crucial for the future economic prosperity and environmental security energy is linked to industrial production agricultural output health access to water population education quality of life etc energy demand management is required for proper allocation of the available resources during the last decade several new techniques are being used for energy demand management to accurately predict the future energy needs in this paper an attempt is made to review the various energy demand forecasting models traditional methods such as time series regression econometric arima as well as soft computing techniques such as fuzzy logic genetic algorithm and neural networks are being extensively used for demand side management support vector regression ant colony and particle swarm optimization are new techniques being adopted for energy demand forecasting bottom up models such as markal and leap are also being used at the national and regional level for energy demand management

review of barriers to the dissemination of decentralized renewable energy systems abstract this paper reviews the available literature dealing with the barriers to the dissemination of decentralized renewable energy systems decentralized renewable energy systems may face a range of technical economic institutional socio cultural and environmental barrier to their dissemination in the paper barriers impeding the dissemination of decentralized renewable energy systems have been identified and assessed in addition appropriate remedial measures and corresponding responsibility centers as reported in the literature have also been discussed inappropriateness of technology unavailability of skilled manpower for maintenance unavailability of spare parts high cost lack of access to credit poor purchasing power and other spending priorities unfair energy pricing lack of information or awareness and lack of adequate training on operation and maintenance of decentralized renewable energy systems are found to be the most critical barriers long term conducive policies appropriate regulatory framework financial incentives capital subsidies and soft loans to users technology and skill development internalization of externalities in the cost of energy withdrawal of subsidies presently being given to fossil fuels development of specialized institutions cooperation with international agencies participation of local community and awareness generation have been recommended for increased dissemination of decentralized renewable energy systems

dynamic modelling of energy consumption capital stock and real income in g 7 countries abstract this paper applies an aggregate production function to examine the dynamic linkages among energy consumption capital stock and real income real gdp per capita in g 7 counties we employ the toda and yamamoto 1995 granger causality test the generalized impulse response approach and variance decompositions in a multivariate setting to uncover the extent and the magnitude of the relationship among variables our empirical results find evidence of a unidirectional relationship running from energy consumption to real income in canada italy and the uk indicating that energy conservation may hinder economic growth in the three countries furthermore the causality relationship appears to be unidirectional but reversed for france and japan implying that energy conservation in both countries may still be viable but without being detrimental to economic growth as to germany and the u s there is no causality between the variables which demonstrates the neutrality hypothesis and in such a case economic growth will not affect energy use we further see that the impact of capital stock is relatively higher compared with that of energy consumption transitory initial impacts of innovations in energy consumption on capital stock and real income are observed

why do shoppers use cash evidence from shopping diary data des etudes recentes montrent que l argent comptant demeure un mode de paiement privilegie pour les transactions de faible montant malgre la prevalence d autres moyens de paiement comme les cartes de debit et de credit pour les decideurs publics il importe de savoir si les consommateurs preferent vraiment regler en especes ou plutot si les commercants restreignent l usage de ces cartes

rural household energy consumption and its impacts on eco environment in tibet taking taktse county as an example abstract rural energy consumption causes tremendous damage to eco environment and leads to aberration from a socio economic point of view in many developing countries due to its unique physical features there is a high potential of renewable energies in tibet and traditional biomass energies such as cattle dung firewood and crop residues play very important roles in local household energy usage this special consumption structure do harm not only to eco environment but to rural residents themselves as well basing on the field study and household questionnaires in june 2006 in taktse the article analyzed the rural household energy supply and consumption structure and its impacts on eco environment health and social aspects of 2005 in this case study county results show that traditional biomass energy takes up to almost 70 which leads to a series of serious eco environment problems such as deforestation soil erosion grassland degradation desertification and some other problems such as human beings diseases and loss of time for education and recreation besides natural backgrounds cultural tradition population growth economy reason and policy guidance are other main driving forces of the input output flow of energy environment relationship in rural tibet at last a multilevel policy suggestion of making less use of traditional biomass and invest more resources in solar energy and biogas are put forward

modelling energy demand of developing countries are the specific features adequately captured abstract this paper critically reviews existing energy demand forecasting methodologies highlighting the methodological diversities and developments over the past four decades in order to investigate whether the existing energy demand models are appropriate for capturing the specific features of developing countries the study finds that two types of approaches econometric and end use accounting are commonly used in the existing energy demand models although energy demand models have greatly evolved since the early seventies key issues such as the poor rich and urban rural divides traditional energy resources and differentiation between commercial and non commercial energy commodities are often poorly reflected in these models while the end use energy accounting models with detailed sectoral representations produce more realistic projections as compared to the econometric models they still suffer from huge data deficiencies especially in developing countries development and maintenance of more detailed energy databases further development of models to better reflect developing country context and institutionalizing the modelling capacity in developing countries are the key requirements for energy demand modelling to deliver richer and more reliable input to policy formulation in developing countries

a critical review of iea s oil demand forecast for china abstract china has a rapidly growing economy with a rapidly increasing demand for oil the international energy agency iea investigated possible future oil demand scenarios for china in the 2006 world energy outlook the debate on whether oil supplies will be constrained in the near future because of limited new discoveries raises the concern that the oil industry may not be able to produce sufficient oil to meet this demand this paper examines the historical relationship between economic growth and oil consumption in a number of countries logistic curve characteristics are observed in the relationship between per capita economic activity and oil consumption this research has determined that the minimum statistical lower bound annual oil consumption for developed countries is 11 barrels per capita despite the increase reported in total energy efficiency no developed country has been able to reduce oil consumption below this lower limit indeed the iea projections to 2030 for the oecd countries show no reduction in oil demand on a per capita basis if this lower limit is applied to china it is clear that the iea projections for china are under estimating the growth in demand for oil this research has determined that this under estimation could be as high as 10 million barrels per day by 2025 if proponents of peak oil such as laherrere campbell and deffeyes are correct about the predicted peak in oil production before 2020 then the implications of this reassessment of china s oil demand will have profound implications for mankind

the optimality of ad valorem contracts we provide a new theory of ad valorem contracts i e contracts that vary with the value of the transaction which can explain why such contracts are widely used between vertically related partie

forecasting production of fossil fuel sources in turkey using a comparative regression and arima model this study aims at forecasting the most possible curve for domestic fossil fuel production of turkey to help policy makers to develop policy implications for rapidly growing dependency problem on imported fossil fuels the fossil fuel dependency problem is international in scope and context and turkey is a typical example for emerging energy markets of the developing world we developed a decision support system for forecasting fossil fuel production by applying a regression arima and sarima method to the historical data from 1950 to 2003 in a comparative manner the method integrates each model by using some decision parameters related to goodness of fit and confidence interval behavior of the curve and reserves different forecasting models are proposed for different fossil fuel types the best result is obtained for oil since the reserve classifications used it is much better defined them for the others our findings show that the fossil fuel production peak has already been reached indicating the total fossil fuel production of the country will diminish and theoretically will end in 2038 however production is expected to end in 2019 for hard coal in 2024 for natural gas in 2029 for oil and 2031 for asphaltite the gap between the fossil fuel consumption and production is growing enormously and it reaches in 2030 to approximately twice of what it is in 2000

econometric modelling of international carbon tax regimes an econometric model of fossil fuel demand has been estimated for eight oecd countries relating coal oil and gas demands to gdp and prices in addition a model of endogenous technical progress has been estimated aiming to include both price induced innovation in energy and structural change in the economy as long term determinants of energy consumption a number of possible international carbon energy tax agreements are simulated showing the impacts on carbon dioxide emissions and comparing the two models in the long run the magnitude of taxes required to stabilize or reduce emissions would be large and there are important differences between countries in price responses which must be taken into account in international modelling and policy formulation

determinants of china s energy imports an empirical analysis sustained economic growth in china has triggered a surge of energy imports especially oil imports this paper investigates the determinants of china s energy import demand by using cointegraiton and vecm techniques the findings suggest that in the long run growth of industrial production and expansion of transport sectors affect china s oil imports while domestic energy output has a substitution effect thus as the chinese economy industrializes and the automotive sector expands china s oil imports are likely to increase though china s domestic oil production has a substitution effect on imports its growth is limited due to scarce domestic reserve and high exploration costs it is anticipated that china will be more dependent on overseas oil supply regardless of the world oil price

price cap regulation in a two sided market intended and unintended consequences abstract this paper studies intended and unintended consequences of price cap regulation in the two sided payment card market the recent u s debit card regulation was intended to lower merchants card acceptance costs by capping interchange fees at the issuer cost but for small ticket transactions the interchange fee instead rose post regulation to address the puzzle i construct a two sided market model and show that card demand externalities between large ticket and small ticket transactions rationalize card networks pricing response based on the model i provide a welfare assessment of the issuer cost based interchange regulation and discuss alternative regulatory approaches

rising wages and energy consumption transition in rural china abstract residential energy consumption in rural china is undergoing a transition from traditional biomass energy to modern commercial energy this paper examines the impact of rising wage rates on energy consumption mix in rural china using a unique panel data set from our two round surveys of 409 rural households in 4 provinces the results show that the wage rate at the village level has a significant negative impact on traditional biomass energy consumption and significant positive effects on consumption of electricity and new renewable energy in rural china as traditional biomass energy is mainly collected with family labor and is relatively labor intensive an increase in rural wage rates would enhance the opportunity costs of traditional biomass energy leading to a reduction in biomass energy consumption continuously rising rural wage rates could accelerate the transition from biomass energy to electricity in rural areas these findings could have important policy implications not only for indoor air quality and environmental and health issues in rural areas but also for greater security in rural energy supply and policies to incentive farmers to better utilize biomass resource after harvest

growing chinese coal use dramatic resource and environmental implications chinese coal consumption continues to rise as the country s economy and industry expand coal is particularly critical for china s fast growing power sector generating about 80 of electricity output notwithstanding the importance of coal and electricity many international forecasts today underestimate their rising use in china this paper acknowledges the current world financial crisis and assumes that chinese gdp growth to 2025 will not again approach double digit levels using the scenario analysis this paper demonstrates that even with conservative assumptions about chinese gdp growth and income elasticity of electric demand to 2025 the country will likely experience much higher coal demand and emit much greater volumes of carbon dioxide than forecast by various international energy agencies the paper also analyzes how china s domestic coal reserves may be threatened within two decades possibly affecting long term economic growth in china as well as world coal prices

tax reform from the gradient projection viewpoint abstract this paper examines the problems of gradual tax reform desirable small moves of the tax system are determined using the principles of the well known gradient projection algorithm three classical models of public finance are considered for each of them a continuous time dynamic process is exhibited along which the social welfare function increases until convergence to local second best extrema although the selection of trajectories according to the gradient projection method has some arbitrariness it leads to intuitively and economically appealing rules such as a tax reform analog of the classical optimal taxation result on production efficiency

double marginalization and cost pass through weyl fabinger and cowan meet spengler and bresnahan reiss consider the classical double marginalization problem of single product successive monopolies we show that the ratio of the cost pass through at the final sale relative to that at the wholesale level is characterized by the curvature of inverse demand in the final market we also apply cowan s 2012 method which utilizes the idea of pass through in an analysis of third degree price discrimination to compare consumer surplus under vertical integration and separation

a model for cost benefit analysis of cooking fuel alternatives from a rural indian household perspective abstract nearly half of the world s population does not have access to cleaner cooking fuels and this is attributed to several things including the lack of resources fuel infrastructure production and distribution purchasing power poverty relevant policies and a combination of these reasons a household s fuel choice aims to minimize cost and maximize benefit both of which are intricate functions of many factors the factors influencing a household s fuel preference and how manipulating these factors such as subsidies improved distribution networks and user awareness will affect fuel preference is reported a cost benefit analysis cba model was developed to study the fuel preferences of rural indian households seven cooking fuels biomass wood and crop residue dung charcoal liquefied petroleum gas lpg biogas kerosene and electricity were ranked in order of household preference various scenarios were considered to demonstrate the sensitivity of fuel preference to multiple factors such as subsidies and improvement in cooking technology results obtained from the model demonstrated strong agreement with the current fuel usage pattern in rural india the model was then applied to compare traditional cookstoves tcs to non subsidized improved cookstoves ics the benefit to cost ratio of solid fuels when used in ics was lower than that when used in tcs a similar trend was observed for fully subsidized ics indicating that price is not the only obstacle to the adoption of an ics sensitivity analysis was performed to demonstrate the utility of this cba model in framing policies to promote fuel transition in rural india although providing subsidies on lpg and electricity can make these cleaner fuels an attractive option biomass will remain a household s preferred fuel unless distribution networks and infrastructure is developed to ensure their uninterrupted supply and accessibility

understanding the political economy and key drivers of energy access in addressing national energy access priorities and policies abstract globally 1 5 billion people lack access to electricity and nearly 3 billion lack access to modern cooking energy options of the world s energy poor 95 are in asia and sub saharan africa within asia almost 80 of electricity deprived and 86 of biomass dependent populations are in the big 5 countries bangladesh china india indonesia and pakistan in this paper we discuss the broad contours of the political economy of energy access in these countries the political economy is assessed through an examination of three sustainability objectives accessibility of physical infrastructure energy service delivery and conformance to social goals the key areas of concern include emphasis on supply driven grid electricity vested power dynamics favouring affluent and urban areas unreliability of energy service provision and misdirected and misappropriated subsidies the above mentioned issues are responsible for limiting accelerated achievement of universal energy access in the big 5 countries and need to be addressed through innovative approaches the paper emphasizes the need for firm commitments policy convergence and the implementation of pro poor equitable energy policies through a broad based energy framework of bench marked technology neutral energy provisioning that ensures reliability and equity it highlights the need for reorienting of the subsidy regime and incorporating energy service delivery indicators in monitoring and reporting mechanisms

cooperation among competitors some economics of payment card associations we analyze platforms in two sided markets with network externalities using the specific context of a payment card association we study the cooperative determination of the interchange fee by member banks the interchange fee is the access charge paid by the merchants banks the acquirers to cardholders banks the issuers we develop a framework in which banks and merchants may have market power and consumers and merchants decide rationally on whether to buy or accept a payment card after drawing the welfare implications of a cooperative determination of the interchange fee we describe in detail the factors affecting merchant resistance compare cooperative and for profit business models and make a first cut in the analysis of system competition

energy and economic growth in industrializing countries the case of greece abstract this paper investigates some aspects of the interrelated paths of economic growth and energy demand in the case of an industrializing economy through the use of numerous econometric models translog functions have helped establish that income and price elasticities of energy two critical parameters in the energy economy interaction exhibit falling trends with time the value share of the industrial sector is strongly associated with both energy demand and energy intensity any increase in the former will lead to amplified increases in the latter rendering the continuation of past trends in industrial expansion questionable under conditions of high energy costs substitution among capital labour and energy does take place though to a limited extent as indicated by the aggregate measure of energy non energy substitution elasticity all findings appear to suggest that energy policymaking in an industrializing country like greece will be of low effectiveness until certain structural changes in the economy are realized

what makes people adopt improved cookstoves empirical evidence from rural northwest pakistan abstract large dependence of the world population on biomass fuels for domestic energy consumption is one of the major anthropogenic causes of deforestation worldwide the use of biomass in inefficient ways in rural areas increases fuelwood demand of a household development of the improved biomass stove programs in the 1970s has been one of the efforts to reduce burden on biomass resource base through reliable and efficient methods of energy consumption however despite having multiple economic social environmental and health benefits the improved stove dissemination programs failed to capture worldwide recognition a wide array of socio cultural economic political and institutional barriers contributes to the low adoption rate of such programs drawing on field work surveys in rural northwest pakistan this paper provides empirical evidence of individual household and community level variables that play a vital role in the adoption of improved cookstoves the study is based on primary data collected from 100 randomly selected households in two villages of rural northwest pakistan using regression analysis the study depicts that education and household income are the most significant factors that determine a household willingness to adopt improved biomass stoves the study concludes that the rate of adoption could substantially be improved if the government and non governmental organizations ngos play a greater role in overcoming the social economic cultural political and institutional barriers to adopting improved cooking technologies

energy consumption in china past trends and future directions abstract in 2003 china s energy consumption amounted to 1678 million tonnes coal equivalent mtce making china the world s second largest consumer behind only the united states china is now also one of the largest oil importers in the world with an economy that is expected to maintain a rate of growth of 7 8 for decades china s role in the world energy market becomes increasingly influential this makes it important to predict china s future demand for energy the objective of this paper is to apply the bayesian vector autoregressive methodology to forecast china s energy consumption and to discuss potential implications the results of this paper suggest that total energy consumption should increase to 2173 mtce in 2010 an annual growth rate of 3 8 which is slightly slower than the average rate in the past decade the slower growth reflects expected slower economic growth and a decline in energy consumption due to structural changes in the chinese economy

short and long run elasticities in us residential electricity demand a co integration approach abstract co integration techniques show promise in the analysis of short and long run effects of economic variables on energy use we use these techniques to develop an error correction model of annual us residential electricity demand we construct equipment stock indices and estimate the model for 1949 1993 our analysis suggests a structural shift in consumption during the 1960s we discuss reasons for this shift report the short and long run elasticities provide forecasts for 1994 1995 and compare the model s forecasts with other published forecasts

electricity consumption growth nexus the case of malaysia abstract the goal of this paper is to model the relationship between electricity consumption and real gross domestic product gdp for malaysia in a bivariate and multivariate framework we use time series data for the period 1971 2003 and apply the bounds testing approach to search for a long run relationship our results reveal that electricity consumption real gdp and price share a long run relationship the results of the autoregressive distributed lag ardl estimates of long run elasticity of electricity consumption on gdp are found to be around 0 7 and statistically significant finally in the short run the results of the causality test show that there is a unidirectional causal flow from electricity consumption to economic growth in malaysia from these findings we conclude that malaysia is an energy dependent country leading us to draw some policy implications this paper adds support and validity thus reducing the policy makers concern on the ambiguity of the electricity and growth nexus in malaysia

ant colony optimization approach to estimate energy demand of turkey abstract this paper attempts to shed light on the determinants of energy demand in turkey energy demand model is first proposed using the ant colony optimization aco approach it is multi agent systems in which the behavior of each ant is inspired by the foraging behavior of real ants to solve optimization problem aco energy demand estimation acoede model is developed using population gross domestic product gdp import and export all equations proposed here are linear and quadratic quadratic acoede provided better fit solution due to fluctuations of the economic indicators the acoede model plans the energy demand of turkey until 2025 according to three scenarios the relative estimation errors of the acoede model are the lowest when they are compared with the ministry of energy and natural resources menr projection

modelling demand for crude oil products in spain this paper develops an econometric model for the five most important crude oil products demand in spain the aim is the estimation of a range of elasticities of such demands that would serve as the basis for an applied general equilibrium model used for forecasting energy demand in a broader framework the main distinctive features of the system with respect to previous literature are i it takes advantage of monthly information coming from very different information sources and ii multivariate unobserved components uc models are implemented allowing for a separate analysis of long and short run relations uc models decompose time series into a number of unobserved though economic meaningful components mainly trend seasonal and irregular a module is added to such structure to take into account the influence of exogenous variables necessary to compute price cross and income elasticities since all models implemented are multivariate in nature the demand components are allowed to interact among them through the system noises similar to a seemingly unrelated equations model the results show unambiguously that the main factor driving demand is real income with prices having little impact on energy consumption

forecasting energy consumption and energy related co2 emissions in greece an evaluation of the consequences of the community support framework ii and natural gas penetration abstract this study seeks to assess the future demand for energy and the trajectory of co2 emissions level in greece taking into account the impact of the community support framework csf ii on the development process and the penetration of natural gas which is one of the major csf ii interventions in the energy system demand equations for each sector of economic activity traded non traded public and agricultural sector and for each type of energy oil electricity and solid fuels are derived the energy system is integrated into a fully developed macroeconometric model so that all interactions between energy prices and production factors are properly taken into account energy co2 forecasts are then derived based on alternative scenarios for the prospects of the greek economy according to the main findings of the paper the growth pattern of forecast total energy consumption closely follows that of forecast output showing no signs of decoupling as regards co2 emissions they are expected to increase with an annual average rate which is higher than world forecasts

short and long run effects between oil consumption and economic growth in china this paper examines both the equilibrium relationship and the predictability between oil consumption and economic growth in china time series variables are employed in empirical tests cointegration tests suggest that these two variables tend to move together in the long run in addition granger causality tests indicate that oil consumption could be a useful factor that forecasts changes in the economy in the short run as well as in the long run the oil consumption is found to have great effects on the economy this is because the enormous use of oil in sectors like the industry may have directly pushed the economy however this finding would probably stimulate faster growth in oil consumption and so should be concerned with care conversely economic growth could be used as a predictive factor forecasting oil consumption only in the long run economic growth appears to have small effects on oil use this could be attributed largely to china s energy consumption structure coal constitutes most of the energy consumption and thus the considerable demand for energy resulting from rapid economic growth could be mostly explained by the mass use of coal

predicting fuelwood prices in greece with the use of arima models artificial neural networks and a hybrid arima ann model abstract throughout history energy resources have acquired a strategic significance for the economic growth and social welfare of any country the large scale oil crisis of 1973 coupled with various environmental protection issues have led many countries to look for new alternative energy sources biomass and fuelwood in particular constitutes a major renewable energy source res that can make a significant contribution as a substitute for oil this paper initially provides a description of the contribution of renewable energy sources to the production of electricity and also examines the role of forests in the production of fuelwood in greece following this autoregressive integrated moving average arima models artificial neural networks ann and a hybrid model are used to predict the future selling prices of the fuelwood from broadleaved and coniferous species produced by greek state forest farms the use of the arima ann hybrid model provided the optimum prediction results thus enabling decision makers to proceed with a more rational planning for the production and fuelwood market

study on china s low carbon development in an economy energy electricity environment framework abstract emissions mitigation is a major challenge for china s sustainable development we summarize china s successful experiences on energy efficiency in past 30 years as the contributions of energy usage management and integrated resource strategic planning which are essential for low carbon economy in an economy energy electricity environment e4 framework the paper studies the low carbon development of china and gives an outlook of china s economy growth energy electricity demand renewable power generation and energy conservation and emissions mitigation until 2030 a business as usual scenario is projected as baseline for comparison while low carbon energy and electricity development path is studied it is defined as low carbon energy electricity when an economy body manages to realize its potential economic growth fueled by less energy electricity consumption which can be characterized by indexes of energy electricity intensity and emissions per unit of energy consumption electricity generation results show that with eum china could save energy by 4 38 billion ton oil equivalences toes and reduce co2 emission by 16 55 billion tons with irsp china could save energy by 1 5 btoes and reduce co2 emission by 5 7 btons during 2010 2030 to realize the massive potential china has to reshape its economic structure and rely much on technology innovation in the future

dynamics of final sectoral energy demand and aggregate energy intensity this paper proposes a regional and sectoral model of global final energy demand for the main end use sectors of consumption industrial commercial and public services residential and road transportation per capita demand is expressed as an s shaped function of per capita income other variables intervene as well like energy prices temperatures and technological trends this model is applied on a panel of 101 countries and 3 aggregates covering the whole world and it explains fairly well past variations in sectoral final consumption since the beginning of the 2000s further the model is used to analyze the dynamics of final energy demand by sector and in total the main conclusion concerns the pattern of change for aggregate energy intensity the simulations performed show that there is no a priori reason for it to exhibit a bell shape as reported in the literature depending on initial conditions the weight of basic needs in total consumption and the availability of modern commercial energy resources various forms might emerge

the long term forecast of taiwan s energy supply and demand leap model application abstract the long term forecasting of energy supply and demand is an extremely important topic of fundamental research in taiwan due to taiwan s lack of natural resources dependence on energy imports and the nation s pursuit of sustainable development in this article we provide an overview of energy supply and demand in taiwan and a summary of the historical evolution and current status of its energy policies as background to a description of the preparation and application of a long range energy alternatives planning system leap model of taiwan s energy sector the taiwan leap model is used to compare future energy demand and supply patterns as well as greenhouse gas emissions for several alternative scenarios of energy policy and energy sector evolution results of scenarios featuring business as usual policies aggressive energy efficiency improvement policies and on schedule retirement of taiwan s three existing nuclear plants are provided and compared along with sensitivity cases exploring the impacts of lower economic growth assumptions a concluding section provides an interpretation of the implications of model results for future energy and climate policies in taiwan

energy consumption and gdp in turkey is there a co integration relationship energy consumption and gdp are expected to grow by 5 9 and 7 annually until 2025 in turkey this paper tries to unfold the linkage between energy consumption and gdp by undertaking a co integration analysis for turkey with annual data over the period 1970 2003 the analysis shows that energy consumption and gdp are co integrated this means that there is a possibly bi directional causality relationship between the two we establish that there is a unidirectional causality running from gdp to energy consumption indicating that energy saving would not harm economic growth in turkey in addition we find that energy consumption keeps on growing as long as the economy grows in turkey

ad valorem platform fees indirect taxes and efficient price discrimination this article explains why platforms such as amazon and visa rely predominantly on ad valorem fees fees which increase proportionally with transaction prices it also provides a new explanation for why ad valorem sales taxes are more desirable than specific taxes the theory rests on the ability of ad valorem fees and taxes to achieve efficient price discrimination given that the value of a transaction to buyers tends to vary proportionally with the cost of the good traded

the impacts of energy prices on energy intensity evidence from china in this paper we present a review of the deregulation of energy prices in china between 1985 and 2004 and assess the impacts of changes in energy prices on aggregate energy intensity and coal oil electricity intensity we used time series data to provide estimates of energy price elasticities empirical results showed that 1 the own price elasticities of coal oil and aggregate energy were negative in periods both before and after 1995 implying that higher relative prices of different energy types lead to the decrease in coal oil and aggregate energy intensities however the positive own price elasticity of electricity after 1995 probably indicates that the price effect was weaker than other factors such as income effect and population effect 2 the impacts of energy prices were asymmetric over time 3 sectoral adjustment also drove the decrease in aggregate energy intensity although raising energy prices to boost efficiency of energy use seems to be an effective policy tool other policy implications concerned with energy prices such as energy supply security and fuel poverty must also be considered