consumption and debt response to unanticipated income shocks evidence from a natural experiment in singapore abstract this paper uses a unique panel dataset of consumer financial transactions to study how consumers respond to an exogenous unanticipated income shock consumption rose significantly after th

the hidden information content of price movements dynamic patterns of prices in different markets may motivate strategic consumers who could be monitoring price movements over time to game vendors do past price movements carry information about the probability and magnitude of future price drops conducting empirical work in the airline industry on near 1000 us domestic routes we find that some price metrics carry information about future price swings these variables can assist in predicting the likelihood and magnitude of price drops these price metrics yield significantly different signals which also vary as the prediction horizon changes

increasing the capital income tax may lead to faster growth this paper shows that under rather mild conditions higher capital income taxes lead to faster growth in an overlapping generations economy with endogenous growth government expenditures are financed with labor income taxes as well as capital income taxes since capital income accrues to the old taxing it reliefs the tax burden on the young and leaves them with more income out of which to save we argue that savings are sufficiently interest inelastic so that higher savings and therefore higher growth result the basic argument is not seriously challenged by a grandfather clause for initial capital or by the old receiving some labor income as well the reasoning is similar to feldstein 1978 auerbach 1979 and in particular jones and manuelli 1992 but in contrast to the conventional wisdom about the effect of capital income taxation as say in lucas 1990

temporary income taxes and consumer spending both economic theory and casual empirical observation of the u s economy suggest that spending propensities from temporary tax changes are smaller than those from permanent ones but neither provides much guidance about the magnitude of this difference this paper offers new empirical estimates of this difference and finds it to be quite substantial the analysis is based on an amendment of the standard distributed lag version of the permanent income hypothesis that distinguishes temporary taxes from other income on the grounds that the former are more transitory this amendment which is broadly consistent with rational expectations leads to a nonlinear consumption function though the standard error is unavoidably large the point estimate suggests that a temporary tax change is treated as a 50 50 blend of a normal income tax change and a pure windfall over a 1 year planning horizon a temporary tax change is estimated to have only a little more than half the impact of a permanent tax change of equ

finite lifetimes and the effects of budget deficits on national saving abstract even though realistic deficit policies shift sizable tax burdens to future generations the assumption of an infinite horizon is a good approximation for analyzing a deficit s short run saving effect on individuals who are neither liquidity constrained nor myopic recent u s experience casts significant doubt on these assumptions however and appears difficult to reconcile with the ricardian equivalence proposition that the timing of taxes does not affect national saving recent deficits have coincided with reduced national saving and a substantial increase in the share of gnp devoted to consumption

consumer response to tax rebates many households received income tax rebates in 2001 of 300 or 600 these rebates represented advance payments of the tax cut from the new 10 percent tax bracket based on a survey of a representative sample of households this paper finds that only 22 percent of households receiving the rebate would spent it instead they would either save it or use it to pay off debt this very low rate of spending represents a striking break with past behavior which would have suggested a much higher rate of spending the low spending rate implies that the tax rebate provided a very limited stimulus to aggregate demand this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

consumer normal price estimation market versus personal standards in reference price models internal reference price is typically estimated from actual market prices given the generally poor price knowledge consumers have exhibited in prior research the question is whether it is reasonable to use actual market prices to estimate consumers internal reference price standards the initial answer provided in this research surprisingly is yes although internal reference prices are measurable and do affect consumer price perception the gains in measuring and using those standards in predicting brand choice for frequently purchased products may not be worth the costs reasons why the surrogate price measure may work and implications for the measurement of internal reference price standards are considered

adjustment costs durables and aggregate consumption abstract previous tests of the permanent income hypothesis pih have focused on either non durables or durables expenditures in isolation this paper studies consumer purchases of non durables and durables as the outcome of a single optimization problem it is shown that with non separability in utility the presence of adjustment costs of changing durables stocks may affect the time series properties of both components of expenditure an econometric test of the pih based on the model developed in the paper is both more efficient and less prone to bias than those in some previous studies however this test confirms earlier rejections of the pih in aggregate quarterly data

looking for loss aversion in scanner panel data the confounding effect of price response heterogeneity recent work in marketing has drawn on behavioral decision theory to advance the notion that consumers evaluate attributes and therefore choice alternatives not only in absolute terms but asdeviations from a reference point the theory has important substantive and practical implications for the timing and execution of price promotions and other marketing activities choice modelers using scanner panel data have tested for the presence of these reference effects in consumer response to an attribute such as price in applications of the theory of reference dependent choice tversky and kahneman 1991 some modelers report empirical evidence of loss aversion when a consumer encounters a price above his or her established reference point a loss the response is greater than for a price below the reference point a gain researchers have gone so far as to suggest that evidence for the so called reference effect make it an empirical generalization in marketing e g kalyanaram and winer 1995 meyer and johnson 1995 it is our contention that the measurement of loss aversion in empirical applications of the reference dependent choice model is confounded by the presence of unaccounted for heterogeneity in consumer price responsiveness our reasoning is that the kinked price response curve implied by loss aversion is confounded with the slopes of the response curves across segments that are differentially responsive to price a more price responsive consumer with a steeper response function tends to have a lower price level as a reference point this consumer faces a larger proportion of prices above his reference point thus the response curve is steeperin the domain of losses similarly the less price responsive consumer sees a greater proportion of prices below his reference point so the response curve is less steep within the domain of gains as a result any cross sectional estimate of loss aversion that does not take this into account will be biased upward researchers who do not control for heterogeneity in price responsiveness may arrive at incorrect substantive conclusions about the phenomenon it is interesting to note that in this instance failure to control for heterogeneity induces a bias infavor of finding an effect rather than the more typical case of attenuation of the effect toward zero we first test our assertion regarding the referencedependent model using scanner panel data on refrigerated orange juice and subsequently extend this analysis to 11 additional product categories in all cases we find as predicted that accounting for price response heterogeneity leads to lower and frequently nonsignificant estimates of loss aversion we do however find some categories in which the effect does not disappear altogether we also estimate loss aversion using a sticker shock model of brand choice in which the reference prices arebrand specific in line with the results of the majority of prior literature we find smaller and insignificant estimates of loss aversion in this model we show that this is because in the sticker shock model there is no apparent correlation between the price responsiveness of the consumer and the representation of reference effects as losses or gains our findings strongly suggest that loss aversion may not in fact be a universal phenomenon at least in the context of frequently purchased grocery products

consumer spending and the economic stimulus payments of 2008 abstract we measure the change in household spending caused by receipt of the economic stimulus payments of 2008 using questions added to the consumer expenditure survey and variation from the ran

household saving out of different types of income revisited the purpose of this paper is to test for two hypotheses about household consumption and saving behaviour namely the substitution hypothesis according to which changes in corporate retained earningshave an offsetting effect on household savingand the hypothesis that consumption and saving out of different types of income vary cross country evidence from 13 oecd countries over the period 1963 80 lies very well in accordance with both of these hypotheses moreover results are robust to alternative specifications of consumption function to additional variables and to estimation methods

household expenditure and the income tax rebates of 2001 using questions expressly added to the consumer expenditure survey we estimate the change in consumption expenditures caused by the 2001 federal income tax rebates and test the permanent income hypothesis we exploit the unique randomized timing of rebate receipt across households households spent 20 to 40 percent of their rebates on nondurable goods during the three month period in which their rebates arrived and roughly two thirds of their rebates cumulatively during this period and the subsequent three month period the implied effects on aggregate consumption demand are substantial consistent with liquidity constraints responses are larger for households with low liquid wealth or low income

where did all the saving go a look at the recent decline in the personal saving rate the inadequacy of aggregate saving is often cited as an explanation of the low levels of capital accumulation and productivity growth in the united states aggregate saving is low in large part because of the steep decline in the personal saving rate that has occurred since 1975 this paper uses a modified life cycle model to analyze the determinants of this recent decline in the personal saving rate the empirical results do not support the hypothesis that the decline in the saving rate was the result of a reduction in the real rate of return the reduction in the rate of growth of income and the changing demographic profile of the labor force are the most important factors in accounting for the fall in the personal saving rate

the impact of heterogeneity in purchase timing and price responsiveness on estimates of sticker shock effects the notion that individuals have an internal reference price against which they compare observed prices is well supported by several psychological theories empirically several papers in the marketing literature employing scanner panel data have modeled the impact of reference prices on brand choice via the sticker shock formulation in which consumers evaluate choice alternatives using differences between shelf prices and reference prices most of the studies reported thus far have not accounted for heterogeneity in price response among consumers and have typically imputed reference prices from the shelf prices of brands that a consumer is supposed to have observed on previous purchases in the category since category marketing activity can differentially affect the purchase timing of households we argue that this measure of reference price may follow certain systematic patterns across consumers and when combined with unaccounted for price response heterogeneity may result in a spurious sticker shock effect specifically we show that estimates of sticker shock are biased upward if households that are price sensitive in the brand choice decision are also more responsive to category promotion activity in their purchase timing decision we discuss some general conditions under which the bias occurs and conduct a simulation experiment to confirm our specific hypotheses our simulation results show that changes in purchase timing are a critical determinant of the bias in the sticker shock effect we also show that unaccounted for price response heterogeneity can in itself result in a biased sticker shock parameter however this requires very large differences in price sensitivities across consumers far greater than what is normally observed we develop a hierarchical bayes version of the nested logit model which models heterogeneity via individual level parameters in a continuous random effects framework we estimate the model on scanner panel data from the yogurt and ketchup categories we find in both categories that the 95 probability interval of the posterior distribution of the mean sticker shock coefficient contains the value zero therefore at least for the data used in this study there is no evidence for the sticker shock effect at the aggregate level in contrast the corresponding coefficient from a standard model which ignores this heterogeneity is highly significant and supports the existence of a possibly spurious sticker shock effect consistent with our explanation of the underlying cause of the bias households that are more price sensitive in the choice decision are also found to be more responsive to category promotion activity in their decision to purchase in the category the results highlight the measurement problems associated with imputing reference prices from past prices since the frequency duration and price level of a retailer s promotional program depend on its size and prevalence accurate estimates of the sticker shock effect are essential for formulating optimal promotion strategies an adequate accounting of consumer heterogeneity is critical to this effort

cash on hand and competing models of intertemporal behavior new evidence from the labor market this paper presents new tests of the permanent income hypothesis and other widely used models of household behavior using data from the labor market we estimate the excess sensitivity of job search behavior to cash on hand using sharp discontinuities in eligibility for severance pay and extended unemployment insurance ui benefits in austria analyzing data for over one half million job losers we obtain three empirical results 1 a lump sum severance payment equal to two months of earnings reduces the job finding rate by 8 12 on average 2 an extension of the potential duration of ui benefits from 20 weeks to 30 weeks similarly lowers job finding rates in the first 20 weeks of search by 5 9 and 3 increases in the duration of search induced by the two programs have little or no effect on subsequent job match quality using a search theoretic model we show that estimates of the relative effect of severance pay and extended benefits can be used to calibrate and test a wide set of intertemporal models our estimates of this ratio are inconsistent with the predictions of a simple permanent income model as well as naive rule of thumb behavior the representative job searcher in our data is 70 of the way between the permanent income benchmark and credit constrained behavior in terms of sensitivity to cash on hand

on the severity of economic downturns lessons from cross country evidence abstract we measure the severity of recessions as a function of their amplitude and duration within a quantile regression framework we assess what causes economic downturns to be more or less severe we find that the most severe downturns have striking similarities regarding cumulated domestic credit and large current account deficits

incorporating reference price effects into a theory of consumer choice although there has been a good deal of research on incorporating the effects of reference price formation into empirical models of consumer buying behavior little formal theoretical work had been undertaken to date this paper incorporates reference price effects into the traditional economic theory of consumer choice and examines the effects of reference price formation on the results of the traditional theory its marketing implications and the implications for empirical models which examine the effects of reference price formation on actual consumer behavior several implications of the theoretical model are empirically tested using weekly retail egg sales data from southern california this analysis indicates that reference price formation does have significant effects on consumer behavior furthermore these effects are asymmetric with consumers two and a half times more responsive to egg price increases that are in excess of the reference price than they are to comparable egg price decreases

dynamic stochastic inventory management with reference price effects we analyze the joint inventory and pricing decisions of a firm when demand depends on not only the current selling price but also a memory based reference price and customers are loss averse the presence of reference price effect leads to a nonconcave one period expected revenue in price and reference price we introduce a transformation technique that allows us to prove under some mild assumptions the optimality of a reference price dependent base stock list price policy which is characterized by a base stock level and a target reference price in addition we show that the target reference price is increasing in the reference price but except in the loss neutral case the base stock level is not monotone in the reference price we also show that in the steady state of the model with the reference price effect the optimal price is lower while the optimal base stock level is higher than their counterparts in the model without the reference price effect

consumer price sensitivity in the retail industry latitude of acceptance with heterogeneous demand abstract estimating the effect of price changes on demand is an essential task for retailers this study proposes a methodology based on consumer utility for modeling the price thresholds phenomenon that allows for threshold asymmetry incorporates consumer heterogeneity and uses weekly aggregated brand level data unlike other studies based on consumer utility models which generate results only for the price elasticity of market share a methodology for estimating price elasticity of demand is also included data on fast moving goods detergents toilet paper soft drinks meats liquid juices and yogurts supplied by a major retail chain are used to demonstrate the existence of price thresholds and their effects on price elasticity in every case it was found that within the thresholds or latitude of acceptance consumers are relatively less sensitive to price variations while beyond them a higher sensitivity was observed in some cases a product brand was classified as inelastic within the latitude of acceptance and elastic outside of it

a reexamination of friedman s consumption puzzle the different average and marginal consumption propensities estimated from time series data constitute a classic puzzle of the theory of consumption this article argues that if consumption and income possess a common stochastic trend and thus are cointegrated both the average propensity to consume apc and the marginal propensity to consume mpc will be consistent but biased in small samples upon correcting for this small sample bias the puzzling discrepancies between the apc and the mpc estimated using annual data for the united states from 1897 to 1949 become substantially smaller this supports an alternative resolution of the puzzle based on the theory of cointegration

budget balance through revenue or spending adjustments abstract the paper provides a historical perspective on the issue of whether budget deficits are typically eliminated by increased taxes or by reduced spending by examining u s budget data from 1792 1988 i conclude that about 50 65 of all deficits due to tax cuts and about 65 70 of all deficits due to higher government spending have been eliminated by subsequent spending cuts while the remainder was eliminated by subsequent tax increases in contrast to previous studies the empirical analysis uses error correction models in a way that the intertemporal budget constraint is imposed in the estimation stage

taxation and consumption evidence from a representative survey of the german population abstractusing a representative survey of the german population this article studies self reported individual consumption responses to a recent exogenous payroll tax reduction about 55 of the respondents report that they spend the extra money indicating considerable potential for tax changes to affect consumption and economic activity our analysis of the socio demographic and economic covariates of consumption responses suggests among other effects that interest rates are related to consumption responses to tax changes and that households with higher income have a higher propensity to consume

specifying price judgments with range frequency theory in models of brand choice abstract to construct a price judgment consumers compare a focal price with one or more reference prices however reference price operationalizations in the brand choice literature use single point summary measures that cannot account for several distributional effects to account for effects beyond the first moment of the reference price distribution the authors specify price judgments in models of brand choice in accordance with range frequency theory the findings indicate that range frequency price judgments provide a more complete specification of reference price effects and become more important with an increase in the second and third moments of a reference price distribution the data also indicate that range effects are stronger for coupon users and frequency effects are stronger for consumers exposed to a trend of prices the results have several implications for choice modeling pricing theory and pricing strategy

multiattribute loss aversion and reference dependence evidence from the performing arts industry we study the prevalence of multiattribute loss aversion and reference effects in a revenue management setting based on data of individual level purchases over a series of concert performances the reference dependence that drives consumer choice is not only based on the price but also on observed sales as a fraction of the seating capacity during their past visits we find that consumers suffer from loss aversion on both prices and seats sold consumers incur significant utility loss when prices are above their references or when the actual seat sales are lower than their references we suggest pricing policies that can address consumer decisions driven by such reference dependence and loss aversion this paper was accepted by vishal gaur operations management

activist fiscal policy during and after the great recession that began in december 2007 the u s federal government enacted several rounds of activist fiscal policy in this paper we review the recent evolution of thinking and evidence regarding the effectiveness of activist fiscal policy although fiscal interventions aimed at stimulating and stabilizing the economy have returned to common use their efficacy remains controversial we review the debate about the traditional types of fiscal policy interventions such as broad based tax cuts and spending increases as well as more targeted policies while there have been improvements in estimates of the effects of broad based policies much of what has been learned recently concerns how such multipliers might vary with respect to economic conditions such as the credit market disruptions and very low interest rates that were central features of the great recession the eclectic and innovative interventions by the federal reserve and other central banks during this period highlight the imprecise divisions between monetary and fiscal policy and the many channels through which fiscal policies can be implemented

is the 2007 u s sub prime financial crisis so different an international historical comparison the first major financial crisis of the twentyfirst century involves esoteric instruments unaware regulators and skittish investors it also follows a well trodden path laid down by centuries of financial folly is the special prob lem of sub prime mortgages really different our examination of the longer historical record which is part of a larger effort on cur rency and debt crises finds stunning qualitative and quantitative parallels across a number of standard financial crisis indicators to name a few the run up in us equity and housing prices that graciela l kaminsky and reinhart 1999 find to be the best leading indicators of crisis in countries experiencing large capital inflows closely tracks the average of the previous 18 post world war ii banking crises in industrial countries so too does the inverted v shape of real growth in the years prior to the crisis despite widespread concern about the effects on national debt of the tax cuts of the early 2000s the run up in us public debt is actually some what below the average of other crisis episodes in contrast the pattern of us current account deficits is markedly worse at this juncture the book is still open on how the current dislocations in the united states will play out the precedent found in the aftermath of other episodes suggests that the strains can be quite severe depending especially on the initial degree of trauma to the financial system and to some extent the policy response the average drop in real per capita output growth is over 2 percent and it typically takes two years to return to trend for the five most catastrophic cases which include episodes in finland japan

empirical generalizations from reference price research considerable theoretical justification for consumers use of psychological reference points exists from the research literature from a managerial perspective one of the most important applications of this concept is reference price an internal standard against which observed prices are compared in this paper we propose three empirical generalizations that are well supported in the marketing literature first there is ample evidence that consumers use reference prices in making brand choices second the empirical results on reference pricing also support the generalization that consumers rely on past prices as part of the reference price formation process third consistent with other research on loss aversion consumers have been found to be more sensitive to losses i e observed prices higher than reference prices than gains we also propose topics for further research on reference prices

tax policy and consumer spending evidence from japanese fiscal experiments abstract this paper studies the extent to which the impact of tax policy on consumer spending differs between temporary and permanent as well as anticipated and unanticipated tax changes to discriminate between them we use institutional information such as legal distinction between temporary and permanent tax changes as well as timing of policy announcement and implementation we find that the impact of temporary changes is significantly smaller than the impact of permanent changes we also find that more than 80 percent of japanese consumers including those who distinguish between temporary and permanent tax changes respond to tax changes at the time of their implementation and not at the time of a policy announcement we suggest an interpretation that these consumers follow a near rational decision rule

the reaction of consumer spending and debt to tax rebates evidence from consumer credit data we use a new panel data set of credit card accounts to analyze how consumers responded to the 2001 federal income tax rebates we estimate the monthly response of credit card payments spending and debt exploiting the unique randomized timing of the rebate disbursement we find that on average consumers initially saved some of the rebate by increasing their credit card payments and thereby paying down debt but soon afterward their spending increased counter to the permanent income model spending rose most for consumers who were initially most likely to be liquidity constrained whereas debt declined most so saving rose most for unconstrained consumers

are consumers forward looking evidence from fiscal experiments how changes in current and future income affect consumer spending is a perennial question in macroeconomics and public finance theoretical constructs such as the permanent income hypothesis are of limited assistance in resolving this issue because they neglect borrowing constraints and other market imperfections that can significantly affect the marginal propensity to spend out of current income recent empirical work has also proven inconclusive since whether consumption responds to income fluctuations by more or less than the permanent income hypothesis predicts turns critically upon whether disposable income follows a random walk or is stationary around a longrun trend see john campbell and angus deaton 1987 this controversy is unlikely to be resolved conclusively because it is notoriously difficult to distinguish a stationary but highly persistent time series from one that is nonstationary these difficulties suggest the importance of searching for natural experiments income shocks with predictable and well understood effects on future income to test models of consumer behavior changes in federal tax and transfer policy during the last two decades provide several episodes of this type analyzing the effects of these tax changes is also central to understanding the role of fiscal policy in affecting national saving this paper examines two aspects of consumer response to tax changes section i argues that consumption responds to temporary income tax shocks by more than the permanent income hypothesis would suggest results from the 1975 tax rebate in particular suggest that a 1 increase in transitory income raises spending by about 20 cents section ii examines consumption responses to tax announcements although the results are not conclusive they suggest that some consumers do not adjust consumption in anticipation of tax changes the final section sketches some implications for analyzing fiscal policy

dissecting the cycle a methodological investigation following burns and mitchell we define the cycle as a pattern in the level of aggregate economic activity an algorithm to locate turning points is developed as is a new measure of pro cyclicality a link between turning points and the moments of the series is established thereby providing the statistical foundation that burns and mitchell s work lacked using these tools we are able to dissect cycles in terms of the contributions made by trend growth volatility serial correlation and non linear effects we dissect several models and find little evidence that certain non linear effects are important to the nature of business cycles

the role of explanations and need for uniqueness in consumer decision making unconventional choices based on reasons this research investigates the interaction between a very common task explaining decisions and an individual difference need for uniqueness nfu on buyer decision making we propose that explaining or providing reasons for decisions shifts the focus from the choice of options to the choice of reasons furthermore buyers who explain their decisions and have high nfu tend to select unconventional reasons and are consequently more likely to make unconventional choices these predictions were supported in a series of studies involving choices between conventional and less conventional options such as whether to switch to a brand on sale whether to select a compromise option and whether to accept a gamble with a possible loss the findings also indicate that the effects of providing reasons are not due to attempts to act rationally or to concerns about being evaluated three boundary conditions on the generalization that high nfu consumers who provide reasons tend to make unconventional choices we

an empirical analysis of latitude of price acceptance in consumer package goods scanner panel data analyses for sweetened and unsweetened drink categories with four brands in each support the presence of a region of price insensitivity around a reference price the analyses also suggest that consumers with higher average reference price have a wider latitude of price acceptance consumers with a higher frequency of purchase i e shorter average interpurchase time interval are found to have a narrower latitude of price acceptance because they are more aware of the range of price distributions finally consumers with a higher average brand loyalty have a wider latitude of price acceptance demonstrating greater tolerance of price fluctuations

an empirical comparison of the validity of a neural net based multinomial logit choice model to alternative model specifications applications of choice models to brand purchase data as a rule specify a linear deterministic utility function we estimate deterministic utility by means of a neural net able to approximate any continuous multivariate function and its derivatives to a desired level of precision we compare this model to related alternatives both with linear and nonlinear utility functions alternatives with nonlinear utility functions are based on generalized additive modeling and taylor series expansion respectively we analyze purchase data of the six largest brands in terms of market share for two product groups neural choice models outperform the alternative models studied w r t posterior probabilities they also attain the best crossvalidated log likelihood values these results demonstrate that the increase in complexity caused by the neural choice model is justified by higher validity in the empirical study the neural choice models imply elasticities different from those obtained by linear utility multinomial logit models for several predictors neural choice models discover inversely s shaped saturation and interaction effects on utility

the value of time ten studies are used to document that time is valued in accordance with a double kinked value function there is a zone of indifference for small time gains losses increasing marginal utility disutility for moderate time gains losses and diminishing marginal utility disutility for large time gains losses moderate amounts of time exhibit increasing marginal utility disutility because larger blocks of time provide a more diverse set of usage opportunities it is only when it is difficult to imagine how more less time would be beneficial detrimental that there is diminishing marginal utility disutility for time thus time valuation shows increasing marginal utility when there is a time deficit but diminishing marginal utility when there is a time surplus these findings have implications for how other resources might be valued

comment on the american recovery and reinvestment act solely a government jobs program by conley and dupor comment on the american recovery and reinvestment act solely a government jobs program by conley and dupor

permanent income liquidity and expenditure on automobiles evidence from panel data several recent papers have tested the permanent income cum rational expectations hypothesis using data on nondurable or semidurable consumption we show how this approach can be extended to the case of durables an application to panel data on automobile expenditures reveals no evidence against the permanent income hypothesis this result is unchanged in subsamples segregated by family holdings of liquid assets

an empirical analysis of the relationship between brand loyalty and consumer price elasticity this empirical paper explores the relationship between consumer brand preference or loyalty and price elasticity in purchase behavior this behavior is conceptualized as resulting from two distinct but related decisions namely a brand choice decision and a purchase quantity decision we argue that loyal consumers will be less price sensitive in the choice decision than nonloyal consumers however this direction is expected to be reversed in the quantity decision with loyal consumers expected to be more price sensitive than nonloyal consumers we model the choice and quantity decisions jointly using the limited dependent variable framework described in krishnamurthi and raj the data used are diary panel data on a frequently purchased product class from burke and caffeinated ground coffee scanner data from iri we show that loyals are less price sensitive than nonloyals in the choice decision but more price sensitive in the quantity decision managerial implications of the differing elasticities are disc

factor proportions and the growth of world trade abstract most of the expansion of global trade since 1980 has been of the north south kind between capital abundant developed and labour abundant developing countries based on this observation i argue that the recent growth of world trade is best understood from a factor proportions perspective using data on trade barriers and estimates of capital labour ratios for a group of 45 economies between 1980 and 2008 i find that a calibrated factor proportions model can generate significant trade growth during this period amounting to 90 of the observed rise in north south trade the opening up of china alone accounts for three quarters of the predicted increase in line with the model i present evidence that china s liberalisation has raised the exports and imports of capital abundant countries relative to more labour abundant economies overall my findings suggest that factor proportions theory may be useful for interpreting several quantitative and qualitative aspects of growing world trade in a period during which the group of large open economies has become significantly less homogenous

saving and inflation some international evidence abstract this note contains empirical results for the disequilibrium saving function specification in which uncertainty about relative prices in a cross section sense plays a major role quarterly time series evidence from several oecd countries over the period 1967 ii 1980 iii lies in striking conformity with the view suggested particularly by deaton that there is a positive relationship between unanticipated inflation and the saving ratio

fiscal policy with heterogeneous agents and incomplete markets i undertake a quantitative investigation into the short run effects of changes in the timing of proportional income taxes for model economies in which heterogeneous households face a borrowing constraint temporary tax changes are found to have large real effects in the benchmark model a temporary tax cut increases aggregate consumption on impact by around 29 cents for every dollar of tax revenue lost comparing the benchmark incomplete markets model to a complete markets economy income tax cuts provide a larger boost to consumption and a smaller investment stimulus when asset markets are incomplete copyright 2005 wiley blackwell

reference effects of price and promotion on brand choice behavior when consumers are exposed to pricing and promotional activity by frequently purchased packaged goods they may develop expectations that are used as points of reference in evaluating future activi

growth effects of taxation under altruism and low elasticity of intertemporal substitution an increase in the tax rate on capital income may raise the rate of economic growth when the elasticity of intertemporal substitution is low and intergenerational transfers are absent since the strength of the bequest motive depends on tax rates this paper provides conditions under which taxing capital income and then reducing the labour income tax is more growth enhancing than the classical policy of zero taxes on capital income and vice versa this paper analyses the effects of different taxes on the rate of economic growth we consider an economy in which public spending is a fixed fraction of the gnp and the government can obtain revenues from proportional taxes on both labour and capital income obviously the growth effects of these two instruments will depend on the assumptions made about the economic environment in the standard overlapping generations olg model with production diamond 1965 an increase in capital income taxes allows a reduction in labour income taxes and thus agents will enjoy more income when they are young since in the olg model young agents must purchase the total stock of capital installed in the next period and saving is increasing in young income higher taxes on capital income may lead to faster capital accumulation in order to complete the argument we must ensure that the associated decrease in the after tax interest rate does not lead to a reduction in saving which would outweigh the previous income effect in other words we need a sufficiently low elasticity of intertemporal substitution the argument is thus similar to the one of jones and manuelli 1992 who have already pointed out that if the technological environment makes sustained growth feasible then taxing the old agents and subsidising the young ones may increase the rate of economic growth however the situation is completely different if we consider instead an economic environment in which the life cycle considerations are absent for instance in endogenous growth models with a representative agent or dynasty and infinite life span an increase in the capital income tax rate typically translates into lower growth see for instance sato 1967 feldstein 1974 stiglitz 1978 and the more recent contributions of lucas 1990 and rebelo 1991 a way to give a unified treatment to these two alternative models is by means

an empirical analysis of internal and external reference prices using scanner data single source yogurt data are used to examine whether both internal and external reference prices affect purchase decisions internal reference prices are memory resident prices based on actual fair or other price concepts external reference prices are observed stimuli such as regular prices that stores may display along with a sale price for comparability discrete choice models with variables representing the two types of reference prices are estimated and both types of variables are found to have significant effects on purchase probabilities this suggests that consumers may use multiple reference points in evaluating price in purchase decisions in addition a model using an indicator of a sale price discount explains purchase probabilities as well as one that models the actual discount which suggests that consumers may be reacting to the indication of savings rather than to the amount of the discount

differentiated price loss aversion in destination choice the effect of tourists cultural interest abstract this article looks into the differentiated effects of loss aversion depending on whether individuals show cultural interest when choosing a destination based on the fact that perceived value implies not only sacrifices but also the expectations of a certain level of quality and prospects of satisfaction together with the idea the prospect theory applies to tourism prices the article states the hypothesis that interest in culture when choosing a destination lowers people s loss aversion by incorporating the reference dependent model into a multinomial logit model with random parameters which controls for heterogeneity the empirical application shows that culture interested tourists are less loss averse i e the negative effect of finding a higher than expected price diminishes with cultural interest the expectation of enjoyment of these attributes and the more conscious attitude toward maintenance restoration activities of cultural sites are hypothesized to lead prices to be evaluated differently when selecting a destination

the policy implications of deflationary tax cuts 1990 the policy implications of deflationary tax cuts applied economics vol 22 no 6 pp 719 722

commercial use of upc scanner data industry and academic perspectives the authors report the findings from an exploratory investigation of the use of upc scanner data in the consumer packaged goods industry in the u s the study examines the practitioner community s view of the use of scanner data and compares these views with academic research forty one executives from ten data suppliers packaged goods manufacturers and consulting firms participated in wide ranging in person interviews conducted by the authors the interviews sought to uncover key questions practitioners would like to answer with scanner data how scanner data is applied to these questions and the industry s perspective regarding the success that the use of scanner data has had in each area the authors then compare and contrast practitioners views regarding the resolution of each issue with academic research this produces a 2 2 classification of each question as resolved or unresolved from the perspectives of industry and academia along the diagonal of the 2 2 issues viewed as unresolved by both groups are important topics for future research issues deemed resolved by both groups are correspondingly of lower priority in the off diagonal cells industry and academics disagree these topics should be given priority for discussion information exchange and possible further research practitioners reported that scanner data analysis has had the most success and been most widely adopted for decision making in consumer promotions i e coupons trade promotions and pricing for example logit and regression models applied to scanner data have revealed very low average consumer response to coupons which has directly led to reduced couponing activity managers also reported high levels of comfort with and impact from analyses of trade promotions and price elasticities while industry views most of the issues in these areas to be resolved academic research raises concerns about a number of practices in common commercial use these include price threshold analysis and trade promotion evaluation using baseline and incremental sales in product strategy advertising and distribution management practitioners reported that the use of scanner data has had more limited development success and impact in the case of new product decisions scanner data use has been slow to develop due to the inherent limitations of historicaldata for these decisions and a heavy reliance on traditional primary research methods in advertising scanner data is widely analyzed with models but confusion among practitioners is very high due to controversies about methods e g what level of data aggregation is best and conflicting results in distribution and retail management scanner data use has tremendous potential but a mixed track record to date thus practitioners view the use of scanner data as unresolved for most issues in product strategy advertising and distribution this view is largely though not entirely consistent with academic research which has only begun to address many of the key questions raised by practitioners in light of the large number of unresolved issues and mixed record of scanner data use to date the authors offer aseries of specific recommendations for immediate and long term research priorities that are likely to have the greatest impact on commercial utilization of upc scanner data topics of immediate priority include price thresholds and gaps baseline and incremental sales base price elasticity competitive reactions measurement of advertising effects management of brand equity rationalization of product assortments and category management long term priorities include a greater emphasis on profitability versus sales or market share developing prescriptive models versus descriptive models and the need for industry standards

the effects of consumers price expectations on sellers dynamic pricing strategies abstract the authors propose a dynamic market equilibrium model to investigate how consumers form price expectations and how these expectations influence their sequential search behavior and prices in the market they derive a perfect bayesian nash equilibrium and show that whereas higher current period prices induce search consumers who observe higher historical prices form higher price expectations become more pessimistic and search less furthermore the authors show that when prices increase as a result of an increase in marginal costs consumers respond by searching more which then leads to higher prices and instant price adjustment in contrast because consumer search activities decline when prices fall sellers may respond by lowering their prices just enough to dampen consumers search tendencies when costs decrease the authors test their theoretical model and its implications and find support for it in a series of simulated market experiments

are the disabled less loss averse evidence from a natural policy experiment i introduction a large literature points to differences in cognitive bias among diverse populations according to lunn and lyons 2010 lower income less educated and older populations are more prone to decision making that deviates from economic rationality also see mather et al 2012 and tymula et al 2013 however as discussed by lunn and lyons 2010 little is known about the decision making biases of other vulnerable populations notably the physically disabled or implications thereof for their economic well being in this study we examine differences in cognitive bias and behavioral heuristics among nondisabled and physically disabled populations specifically using data from a unique israeli government natural policy experiment we assess loss aversion among nondisabled and disabled populations in the decision to purchase a home our empirical tests are motivated by previous findings in physiology and psychology showing that disabled persons often develop physical and mental mechanisms to help compensate for disabilities according to bishop 2005 disabled persons utilize such coping mechanisms to minimize gaps caused by their impairments as further suggested by devins et al 1983 yoshida 1993 livneh and antonak 1997 and bishop and feist price 2002 such strategies and mechanisms allow disabled persons increased control over their health and environment specifically nirje 1972 sands and wehmeyer 1996 and wehmeyer 1998 suggest that disabled populations seek compensatory mechanisms to enhance autonomy efficacy self reliance and self management among noteworthy examples cattaneo and vecchi 2011 summarize a long series of studies indicating the development of compensatory mechanisms among visually impaired persons results of those analyses indicate enhanced nonvisual perceptual sensorial and cortical level abilities among the visually disabled e g amedi et al 2003 crawford et al 2008 hamilton pascual leone and schlaug 2004 hull and mason 1995 muchnick et al 1991 roder rosier and neville 2001 niemeyer and starlinger 1981 in other recent work keysar hayakawa and an 2012 provide evidence of compensatory cognitive mechanisms among persons with language impairments results of experimental analysis indicate diminished decision biases and reduced loss aversion among non native language speakers the authors hypothesize that use of a foreign language reduces the opportunity for spontaneous response and results in a more consciously measured and considered mode of thinking 1 as with visually or language impaired persons the compensatory mechanisms acquired by physically disabled persons may extend beyond the psychophysiological domain to include cognitive adjustments indeed as discussed by stanovich and west 2000 lower levels of cognitive bias could compensate for physical disability and provide for improved coping prospects over the past decade the israeli government sought to privatize public housing via an offer to sell rental units to tenants at a discount from the market price the algorithms utilized by the government to determine the magnitudes of the price reductions varied over time furthermore the price reductions were not forecastable among targeted program participants tenants had the opportunity to either accept or decline government sales offers extended at each successive program iteration our research employs survival analysis to specify and empirically test whether physically nondisabled and disabled tenants exhibited different degrees of loss aversion behavior in their home purchase decisions 2 as first described by kahneman and tversky 1979 loss aversion pertains to household behavior when the aggravation that one experiences in losing a sum of money appears to be greater than the pleasure associated with gaining the same amount p 279 in experimental work tversky and kahneman 1992 find that under even odds for winning and losing the gain should be at least twice as large as the loss for a prospect to be acceptable whereas putler 1992 finds for example that consumers are two and a half times more responsive to price increases that are in excess of the reference price than they are to comparable price declines

rational expectations and tax policy experimental market evidence abstract experimental markets are used to test whether 1 1 subjects forecasts of future and unknown policy conform to the rational expectations hypothesis and 2 2 subjects purchases of commodities are made in anticipation of such policy forecast results confirm previous studies that support adaptive expectations on the other hand subjects exhibited a type of as if rationality by learning to alter their commodity purchases intertemporally in anticipation of fiscal changes this ability was only slightly diminished when policy was stochastic or when the micro economies were in disequilibrium and in chaos

correlates of price acceptability the cognitive tradeoff between price and product quality is used as a basis for hypothesizing interrelationships between two individual difference variables and two price related responses results of a correlational study support the hypothesis of an inverse relationship between price consciousness and product involvement and the hypotheses that price consciousness and product involvement have opposite implications for several price related constructs results also indicate a positive relationship between price acceptability level and the width of the latitude of price acceptance

reference price and price perceptions a comparison of alternative models reference price effects on consumer price perceptions are often explained by helson s adaptation level theory in which the cognitive representation of reference price is the prototype of the relevant category however recent conceptualizations and empirical evidence suggest the possibility of an exemplar model which may be specified using volkmann s range theory or parducci s range frequency theory in two experiments these three contextual models of reference price effects are pitted against one another based on the manova and model fitting range frequency theory accounted for reference price effects that the other theories could not suggesting that consumers compare the target price against specific members of the category rather than the category prototype a third experiment demonstrated that range and frequency effects are moderated by the stimulus presentation condition suggesting that consumers place greater weight on extreme prices anchoring the range for internal reference prices than for external reference prices

hysteresis price acceptance and reference prices the existence of price thresholds in grocery retailing is well documented most authors explain the existence of price thresholds using assimilation contrast theory adaptation level theory or prospect theory however each of these theories is untenable if consumers are believed to behave rationally we offer a theoretical explanation grounded in real options theory rot and economic hysteresis we test the rot hypothesis against three plausible alternatives using a maximum likelihood friction model that we augment for unobserved heterogeneity our findings support the rot hypothesis and suggest that the existence of price thresholds in aggregate data are driven by a common recognition of real option values which do not disappear with the inclusion of consumer heterogeneity

the effect of plausible and exaggerated reference prices on consumer perceptions and price search this article examines whether advertisers regular price claims affect consumer perceptions and price search behavior experiments involving simulated shopping via personal computers indicate that compared to an ad with no reference price an ad with a plausible reference price raised subjects estimates of the advertiser s regular price and the perceived offer value an exaggerated reference price had generally the same positive effects on perception as a plausible reference price even for the more skeptical subjects further when subjects were presented with an advertised sale price above the lowest expected price the exaggerated reference price increased the percentage of subjects who purchased the product from the advertiser without checking other stores prices

interest rate effects and intertemporal consumption abstract a small but growing body of literature has examined the intertemporal relationship between consumption saving and the rate of interest unfortunately a survey of the empirical evidence reveals inconsistencies associated with the estimated sign of the interest rate given the current controversy surrounding the effects of the rate of interest on consumption saving the present paper attempts to reconcile as well as to extend out empirical knowledge

the cross price effect on willingness to pay estimates in open ended contingent valuation abstract previous literature has shown that potential buyers use a reference price or product to form their opinion about the value of a new product therefore the pricing decision is an interactive process we investigate the two generalizations of the cross price effect the neighborhood price effect and the asymmetric price effect on consumer willingness to pay wtp for multiple similar products in an open ended contingent valuation context results show that the cross price effect on wtp is prominent with the neighborhood price effect holding in contingent valuation no conclusions are reached about the asymmetric price effect

understanding reference price shoppers a within and cross category analysis abstract the authors attempt to draw profiles of reference price shoppers specifically the authors study how selected factors that affect brand choice are correlated with consumer sensitivity to gains and losses with respect to internal reference prices they also study the interaction between sociodemographics and gain and loss sensitivity furthermore the authors analyze cross category correlations in gain and loss sensitivity to shed light on their individual and category specific characters in three categories the results show significant heterogeneity in loss sensitivity among consumers and indicate that loss sensitivity is greater and more heterogeneous than gain sensitivity across categories the results show that loss sensitive shoppers are less influenced by past brand use and that both loss and gain sensitive shoppers more sensitive to price display and feature than the average consumer loss sensitive households tend to be larger and their heads are less likely to be fully employed