inflation and the informativeness of prices this paper studies the welfare effects of the relative price variability arising from inflation if customers and suppliers form long term relationships prices have an informational role a potential customer uses current prices as signals of future prices inflation reduces the informativeness of current prices causing customers to make costly mistakes about which relationships to enter in addition the reduced informativeness of prices makes demand less price elastic thereby increasing markups both effects can be quantitatively significant at moderate inflation rates

not all price endings are created equal price points and asymmetric price rigidity abstract we document an asymmetry in the rigidity of 9 ending prices relative to non 9 ending prices consumers have difficulty noticing higher prices if they are 9 ending or noticing price increases if the new prices are 9 ending because 9 endings are used as a signal for low prices price setters respond strategically to the consumer heuristic by setting 9 ending prices more often after price increases than after price decreases 9 ending prices therefore remain 9 ending more often after price increases than after price decreases leading to asymmetric rigidity 9 ending prices are more rigid upward than downward these findings hold for both transaction prices and regular prices and for both inflation and no inflation periods

interest rate deregulation monetary policy efficacy and rate rigidity abstract this paper examines the effects of interest rate regulation and subsequent deregulation on the efficacy of monetary policy and rigidity of retail bank deposit rates in hong kong using an error correction model we find that interest rate deregulation increases the efficacy of monetary policy by improving the correlation between retail bank deposit rates and market interest rates and increasing the degree of long term pass through for retail bank deposit rates our study also shows that the adjustments in retail bank deposit rates are asymmetric and rigid upwards during the regulated period but tend to be rigid downwards during the deregulated period the spreads between retail bank deposit rates and market rates have also tightened sharply after the removal of interest rate controls

adapting prices or quantities in the presence of adjustment costs it is often hypothesized that costs of adjusting both price and quantities may have important implications for the macroeconomic adjustment process not least to nominal shocks we analyse this in an explicit intertemporal general equilibrium model considering the empirically relevant case of fixed costs of adjusting prices and fixed and variable costs of adjusting quantities we find that the presence of both price and quantity adjustment costs changes the response to shocks significantly it is an implication that small shocks do not support the menu cost case but rather both fixed prices and quantities rationing a numerical analysis based on available evidence on adjustment costs is used to illustrate the likelihood that the various adjustment patterns actually arise

market power in emission permit markets theory and evidence from the eu ets a well known result about market power in emission permit markets is that efficiency can be achieved by full free allocation to the dominant firm i show that this result breaks down when taking the interaction between input and output markets into account even if the dominant firm perceives market power in the permit market alone i then examine the empirical evidence for price manipulation by the ten largest electricity firms during phase i of the eu ets i find that some firms excess allowance holdings are consistent with strategic price manipulation and that they cannot be explained by price speculation or by precautionary purchases to insure against uncertain future emissions my results suggest that market power is likely to be an empirically relevant concern during the early years of emission permit markets

price changes in the euro area and the united states some facts from individual consumer price data prices of goods and services do not adjust immediately in response to changing demand and supply conditions this paper characterizes the average frequency and size of price changes in the euro area and its member countries investigates the determinants of the probability of price changes and compares the evidence for the euro area with available u s results the facts documented in this paper are based on evidence from individual price data recorded at the store level in all euro area countries except ireland and greece that is in datasets covering austria belgium finland france germany italy luxembourg the netherlands portugal and spain which together account for around 97 percent of euro area gdp the data used are the monthly price records underlying the computation of national consumer price indices and harmonized consumer price indices these data cover a large number of products selected on the basis of extensive household budget surveys

market power permit allocation and efficiency in emission permit markets market power in permit markets has been examined in some detail following the seminal work of hahn q j econ 99 4 753 765 1984 but the effect of free allocation on price manipulation with market power in both product and permit market has not been fully addressed i show that in this case the threshold of free allocation above which a dominant firm will set the permit price above its marginal abatement costs is below its optimal emissions in a competitive market and that overall efficiency cannot be achieved by means of permit allocation alone in addition to being of general economic interest this issue is relevant in the context of the eu ets i find that the largest german uk and nordpool power generators received free allowances in excess of the derived threshold conditional on having price setting power in both the electricity and permit markets these firms would have found it profitable to manipulate the permit price upwards despite being net permit buyers

inflation costly price and quantity adjustments and time spent in the keynesian regime abstract this paper considers a menu cost firm under inflation due to costly quantity adjustments the firm is sometimes in a keynesian regime where sales are demand determined with a positive real interest rate the proportion of time in the keynesian regime is less than the inverse of the absolute value of the average elasticity of demand in that regime

the timing and magnitude of retail store markdowns evidence from weekends and holidays we examine daily prices of eight goods at seventeen retail stores collected in ann arbor michigan over a four month period from november 1 to february 28 we focus on weekly and seasonal price patterns and on the frequency of price markdowns or sales there were frequent markdowns in the intensive shopping period prior to christmas and a tendency for such sales to occur on weekends we interpret these findings as evidence that a significant number of markdowns are timed to occur when shopping intensity is exogenously high we complement the imperfect information based motives for sales in the literature by contributing an additional element based on the role of bulk shopping and increasing returns in the shopping technology

do subjects from high and low context cultures attribute different meanings to tourism services with 9 ending prices abstract four symbolic meanings have been associated with 9 ending prices discount price enhanced value low quality and misleading action scales were developed to measure each meaning and the relative strength of these meanings in influencing tourists purchases among samples from the u s korea and china was investigated the analyses found no differences in the likelihood of tourists selecting 9 ending rather than even ending prices when purchasing a sandwich a pizza or show tickets in their relative importance across cultures or in the influence on purchase decisions of different symbolic meanings associated with 9 endings however a 9 ending discount was perceived to be more effective when compared to even ended price discounts in the context of a hotel room again however its effectiveness could not be explained by the different symbolic meanings associated with 9 ending prices

empirical evidence on inflation expectations in the new keynesian phillips curve abstract we review the main identification strategies and empirical evidence on the role of expectations in the new keynesian phillips curve paying particular attention to the issue of weak identi

a consumer as an entrant in the norwegian cement market this paper sheds light on the strategy of two entrants in the norwegian cement market where both started importing cement one entrant was an initial consumer of the incumbent s product and thus imported for own consumption the author demonstrates that this type of entrant will undertake a sunk investment to have access to a second supplier in cases where other types of entrants are deterred both types of entrants must accept a high import price if the incumbent can purchase the exclusive right to import from foreign suppliers the author finds that the two observed entry attempts are consistent with the model s predictions copyright 1993 by blackwell publishing ltd

do the new keynesian microfoundations rationalise stabilisation policy systematic monetary policy is analysed in a two period extension of standard static new keynesian models it is shown that countercyclical policies increase the band of inaction of the price setters and that this feedback effect on price rigidity may make such policies self justifying that is the policies themselves cause the fluctuations that they are stabilising moreover countercyclical policies may in general reduce welfare in fact socially optimal policies may very well involve a commitment to enhance shocks

round prices and price rigidity evidence from outlawing odd prices abstract this paper exploits a legal change in israel that banned the use of non zero digit price endings e g 6 99 to study the relationship between digit price endings and price rigidity we compare the propensity of product prices to change before and after the ban while distinguishing between products whose prices ended with a zero and products whose prices did not end with a zero digit before the ban we find that before the ban zero digit price endings were more likely to change typically upward compared with products with non zero digit price endings after the legal change these differences disappeared overall these findings support the price point theory blinder 1991

competition and cooperation in the market for exclusionary rights salop and david scheffman 1983 show that firms profitably can gain market power by conduct that raises their competitors costs raising rivals costs is a more credible route to market power than is predatory pricing because it is not necessary to cause the rivals to exit no deep pocket is required and the additional profits are gained immediately that paper argues that vertical restraints and contracts with input suppliers can be fertile ground for raising competitors costs by contracting with one or more suppliers to exclude rivals either by dealing with them on discriminatory terms or refusing to deal with them altogether a firm sometimes can increase its rivals costs as a result it can sometimes gain the power to raise price in the market in which it sells output this type of contract often can be characterized as the purchase of an exclusionary right from the input suppliers that is in addition to the purchase of inputs the predator also purchases the right to exclude some of its rivals from access to the suppliers inputs exclusionary rights contracts can exist in a variety of forms at one extreme are agreements that involve only exclusionary rights no inputs are exchanged at all for example it was reported in alcoa that at one time alcoa purchased exclusionary covenants from power companies from which it did not purchase electricity the contracts involved only the utilities promises not to sell electricity to other aluminum companies such naked exclusionary rights contracts are unusual of course most exclusionary rights are bundled with the sale of inputs for example stroh beer has alleged that the two major brewers purchase not only advertising time on network sports programs but also the right to exclude remaining brewers from advertising on those same programs even though the networks have other advertising time available it might be argued that such exclusionary conduct would always fail for two reasons the excluded rivals would have available effective counterstrategies to prevent their own exclusion and input suppliers would have no incentives to reduce their sales by excluding some customers these criticisms imply that raising rivals costs by contracting with suppliers would not be credible it surely is not true that exclusionary strategies to restrict rivals input purchases will always succeed in raising their costs for example where rivals easily can substitute to other equally cost effective inputs or where entry into the production of inputs is so easy that the excluded rivals can efficiently produce the input themselves then cost raising strategies will fail moreover where competition in the output market would be sufficient to maintain low prices despite the exit or increased costs of the excluded competitors then no profit maximizing firm would spend any resources trying to exclude those rivals these conditions are discussed in detail in our earlier paper 1985 tdiscussants ronald h coase university of chicago gregory k down yale university david sappington bell communications research and university of pennsylvania

elusive persistence wage and price rigidities the new keynesian phillips curve and inflation dynamics abstract we review the main new keynesian inflation equations that have arisen as a result of aggregation from individual firms price rigidities we find that on the whole they cannot account for inflation persistence a key feature of the empirical dynamics of inflation and with important policy implications the only exceptions seem to be when indexation is allowed in price setting or when price stickiness is combined with wage rigidity and staggering

convenient prices currency and nominal rigidity theory with evidence from newspaper prices abstract certain items prices are often set to simplify and expedite transactions by coinciding with available monetary units requiring few pieces of money or requiring little change in this sense these prices are more convenient than other proximate prices this paper models a firm that explicitly incorporates convenience into its pricing decisions where convenience is quantified by the number of currency units in a transaction and illustrates the theoretical behaviors that can arise newspaper cover price data empirically support the theory across a broader range of goods and services convenience appears to play a role in effecting above average nominal price rigidity

rigid prices evidence from u s scanner data this paper uses over two years of weekly scanner data from two small us cities to characterize time and state dependence of grocers pricing decisions in these data the probability of a nominal adjustment declines with the time since the last price change even after controlling for heterogeneity across store product cells and replacing sale prices with regular prices we also detect state dependence the probability of a nominal adjustment is highest when a store s price substantially diers from the average of other stores prices however extreme prices typically reflect the selling store s recent nominal adjustments rather than changes in other stores prices

an experimental examination of vertical control and cost predation abstract in recent years there has been renewed interest in and concern about firms use of vertical control as a way to exert market power such behavior could be used to gain a competitive advantage over rivals in input and or output markets this paper uses laboratory experimental methods to examine three questions i is anti competitive behavior by a dominant firm in input markets an observable behavior ii is cost predation an observable laboratory phenomenon and iii if such behaviors are observed what are the efficiency consequences results of this dominant firm experiment indicate that all three questions can be answered in the affirmative and the negative efficiency consequences can be profound

exclusionary vertical contracts and product market competition this article considers whether a monopolist is able to deter more efficient entrants through contracting with buyers in the antitrust literature the chicago school s stand is that such contracts cannot be anticompetitive hence vertical contracts should be accorded per se legal status in a four stage game with the following features 1 the incumbent enjoys a first mover advantage 2 the entrant must incur some sunk cost to enter the market and 3 entry is uncertain the author shows that vertical contracts can be anticompetitive if there exists product market competition thus the author advocates caution in treating all contracts as per se legal a three factor repeated measures experiment tested the effect of leadership style charismatic structuring and considerate on performance improvement on a manufacturing task over four trials findings from a repeated measures multivariate analysis of variance indicated that individual exposed to considerate leadership had superior initial performance but that this difference faded over time further analysis indicated that self efficacy fully mediated the relationship between leadership style and performance copyright 1999 by university of chicago press

asymmetric wholesale pricing theory and evidence asymmetric pricing or asymmetric price adjustment is the phenomenon where prices rise more readily than they fall we offer and provide empirical support for a new theory of asymmetric pricing in wholesale prices wholesale prices may adjust asymmetrically in the small but symmetrically in the large when retailers face cost of price adjustment such retailers will not adjust prices for small changes in their costs manufacturers then see a region of inelastic demand where small wholesale price changes do not translate into commensurate retail price changes the implication is asymmetrica small wholesale price increase is more profitable because manufacturers will not lose customers from higher retail prices yet a small decrease is less profitable because it will not lower retail prices hence there is no extra revenue from greater sales for larger changes this asymmetry in the behavior of wholesale price vanishes as the price adjustment cost is compensated by the increase in retailers revenue resulting from correspondingly large retail price changes we present a formal economic model of a channel with forward looking retailers and cost of price adjustment test the derived propositions on the behavior of manufacturer prices using a large supermarket scanner data set and find that the results are consistent with the predictions of our theory we then discuss the implications for asymmetric pricing channels and cost of price adjustment literatures as well as public policy

inflation price competition and consumer search technology abstract this paper studies an s s pricing model in the presence of inflation and price competition in search markets i present a model in which consumers search technologies can influence firms price setting price dispersion and the market structure the result obtained shows that although price competition among firms is intensified in markets where consumers search technologies are more efficient price inflation is counter intuitively more likely to increase the monopoly power and stimulate entry of firms in these markets the model also provides new empirical implications for firms price setting behaviors

price setting with menu cost for multi product firms we model the decisions of a multiproduct firm that faces a fixed menu cost once it is paid the firm can adjust the price of all its products we characterize analytically the steady state firm s decisions in terms of the structural parameters the variability of the flexible prices the curvature of the profit function the size of the menu cost and the number of products sold we provide expressions for the steady state frequency of adjustment the hazard rate of price adjustments and the size distribution of price changes all in terms of the structural parameters we study analytically the impulse response of aggregate prices and output to a monetary shock the size of the output response and its duration both increase with the number of products they more than double as the number of products goes from 1 to 10 quickly converging to the response of taylor s staggered price model

profiting from countervailing power an effect of government control we demonstrate that a firm subject to government regulation might expect an increase in profit upon creation of an independent monopoly upstream such a monopoly serves to increase the expected cost of the regulated firm as a result even regulators who behave socially optimally will decrease the frequency with which they audit reports of high production cost the reduction in governmental investigation permits the firm to increase the rents it derives from its superior information about cost the possible implications of our model for a theory of political limit pricing are also briefly mentioned

own brand and cross brand retail pass through in this paper we describe the pass through behavior of a major u s supermarket chain for 78 products across 11 categories our data set includes retail prices and wholesale prices for stores in 15 retail price zones for a one year period for the empirical model we use a reduced form approach that focuses directly on equilibrium prices as a function of exogenous supply and demand shifting variables the reduced form approach enables us to identify the theoretical pass through rate without specific assumptions about the form of consumer demand or the conduct of a category pricing manager thus our measurements of pass through are not constrained by specific structure on the underlying economic model the empirical pricing model includes costs of all competing products in the category on the right hand side not only the cost of the focal brand and yields estimates of both own brand and cross brand pass through rates our results provide a rich picture of the retailer s pass through behavior we find that pass through varies substantially across products and across categories own brand pass through rates are on average more than 60 for 9 of 11 categories a finding that is at odds with the claims of manufacturers about retailers in general importantly we find substantial evidence of cross brand pass through effects indicating that retail prices of competing products are adjusted in response to a change in the wholesale price of any given product in the category we find that cross brand pass through rates are both positive and negative we explore determinants of own brand and cross brand pass through rates and find strong evidence in multiple categories of asymmetric retailer response to trade promotions on large versus small brands for example brands with larger market shares and brands that contribute more to retailer profits in the category receive higher pass through we also find that trade promotions on large brands are less likely than small brands to generate positive cross brand pass through i e induce the retailer to reduce the retail price of competing smaller products on the other hand small share brands are disadvantaged along three dimensions trade promotions on small brands receive low own brand pass through and generate positive cross brand pass through for larger competing brands moreover small share brands do not receive positive cross pass through from trade promotions on these larger competitors we also find that store brands are similarly disadvantaged with respect to national brands

sticky information and sticky prices abstract in the u s and europe prices change at least once a year yet nominal macro shocks seem to have real effects lasting well beyond a year sticky information models as posited by mankiw and reis 2002 sticky information versus sticky prices a proposal to replace the new keynesian phillips curve quarterly journal of economics 117 1295 1328 sims 2003 implications of rational inattention journal of monetary economics 50 3 665 690 and woodford 2003 princeton university press princeton nj can reconcile micro flexibility with macro rigidity we simulate a sticky information model in which price setters update information on macro shocks less frequently than information on micro shocks we then examine price changes in the micro data underlying the u s cpi empirical price changes react to old information just as sticky information models predict

rigidities and adjustments of daily prices to costs evidence from supermarket data we assess the extent of inertia in grocery retail prices using data on prices and costs from a large supermarket chain in colombia relative to previous work our analysis benefits from encompassing a wide variety of products availability of reliable replacement cost data and the daily frequency of the data we confirm the existence of significant nominal rigidities in reference prices three months and even more so in reference costs about six months but differing depending on the type of product being on average smaller in the case of perishable goods using a non linear autoregressive distributed lag nardl approach to cointegration we examine the path of prices relative to costs and determine the speed of adjustment of prices to shocks we find significant mean reversion but also uncover asymmetries in response to positive and negative changes in costs as a novel finding we uncover evidence of the effect of market concentration input price volatility along with own labels and the perishable nature of products on the likelihood of price asymmetry in response to costs changes

inflation and output dynamics with state dependent pricing decisions this paper studies a state dependent pricing model in which firms face a fixed cost of changing their pricing plans a pricing plan specifies an entire sequence of time varying future prices allowing firms to choose a pricing plan rather than a single price generates inflation inertia in the response of the economy to small changes in the growth rate of money allowing firms to choose when to change their pricing plan generates a non linear response of inflation and output to small and large changes in the money growth rate the non linear solution method also reveals that the model generates an asymmetric response of output and inflation to monetary expansions and contractions

monetary policy for inattentive economies we offer a contribution to the analysis of optimal monetary policy we begin with a critical assessment of the existing literature arguing that most work is based on implausible models of inflation output dynamics we then suggest that this problem may be solved with some recent behavioral models which assume that price setters are slow to incorporate macroeconomic information into the prices they set a specific such model is developed and used to derive optimal policy in response to shocks to productivity and aggregate demand optimal policy is price level targeting base drift in the price level which is implicit in the inflation targeting regimes currently used in many central banks is not desirable in this model when shocks to desired markups are added optimal policy is flexible targeting of the price level that is the central bank should allow the price level to deviate from its target for a while in response to these supply shocks but it should eventually return the price level to its target path optimal policy can also be described as an elastic price standard the central bank allows the price level to deviate from its target when output is expected to deviate from its natural rate

prices for cash and cash for prices theory and evidence on convenient pricing a transaction between a seller and a buyer incurs a payment cost the payment cost is borne by the seller depending on the payment instrument the buyer chooses cash or card card payment is more costly than cash payment so the seller prefers that the buyer pays cash in this article we study the strategy of the seller setting a convenient price which simplifies transactions and pushes the buyer to pay cash the theoretical analysis which models both the seller and the buyer in a game setting derives two propositions 1 the seller is more likely to set a more convenient price and 2 the buyer is more likely to pay cash a more convenient price the empirical analysis supports both propositions thus sellers adopt a convenience pricing strategy prices for cash and this strategy pushes buyers to pay cash cash for prices

output effects of inflation with fixed price and quantity adjustment costs i introduction there is convincing evidence that fixed costs of price adjustment may be large levy et al 1997 found such costs to be 0 7 of a firm s revenue and zbaracki et al 2004 found them to be 1 22 in the presence of fixed costs of price adjustment a monopolistic firm does not adjust its nominal price continuously with the result that the real price and output generally deviate from their static monopoly level at low inflation rates the average output is higher than the static monopoly output if there is positive discounting danziger 1988 and depends on higher order derivatives of the profit and demand functions if there is no discounting benabou and konieczny 1994 1 most of the literature assumes that only price adjustments are costly while output can be continuously adjusted without cost however bresnahan and ramey 1994 document that there may be large fixed costs of quantity adjustments relatedly many publications show that adjusting labor and capital inputs involves significant fixed costs 2 such costs may derive from loss of organizational capital baily et al 2001 jovanovic and rousseau 2001 as well as from job protection rules severance pay and legal and administrative complications in a framework with both price and quantity adjustment costs andersen 1995 and andersen and toulemonde 2004 demonstrate that only intermediate size shock but not large or small shocks may affect output for a constant inflation rate danziger 2001 shows that a firm s permanent production decreases with inflation at low inflation rates if discounting is positive and danziger and kreiner 2002 that output capacity decreases with inflation if the elasticity of demand is constant and there is no discounting see also danziger 2003 the purpose of this article is to provide a simple general characterization of the output effects of a constant inflation rate if both price and quantity adjustments involve fixed costs it is assumed that quantity adjustments are at least as costly as price adjustments which implies that a firm s production is held constant at a permanent level 3 each firm then keeps its nominal price unchanged in periods of equal length and the nominal price is adjusted so that the initial real price is the same in each period thus a firm s optimal strategy consists of the initial real price the duration of the periods with unchanged nominal price and the permanent level of production the article shows that in the absence of discounting the effect of inflation on the aggregate production depends on how fast firms marginal real revenue decreases with demand and that this effect is fully determined by the elasticity of the marginal real revenue with respect to demand thus aggregate production decreases with inflation if the elasticity of the marginal real revenue always exceeds minus unity increases with inflation if the elasticity of the marginal real revenue is always less than minus unity and is invariant to inflation if the elasticity of the marginal real revenue always equals minus unity several studies have found that the comovement between output and prices is typically negative in the long run cooley and ohanian 1991 den haan 2000 den haan and sumner 2004 fiorito and kollintzas 1994 within the framework of the present model the negative comovement indicates that the empirically relevant situation is when the elasticity of the marginal real revenue always exceeds minus unity this will be the case among others if demand functions exhibit a constant price elasticity less than minus unity as assumed in danziger and kreiner 2002 ii the model consider an economy with a unit continuum of identical consumers and a unit continuum of monopolistic firms producing differentiated perishable products each firm and its product are indexed by i which is uniformly distributed on 0 1

price stickiness empirical evidence of the menu cost channel abstract a leading explanation in the economic literature is that monetary policy has real effects on the economy because firms incur a cost when changing prices using a unique database of cost and retail price changes we find that variation in menu costs results in up to 13 3 fewer price increases we confirm that these effects are allocative and have a persistent impact on both prices and unit sales we provide evidence that the menu cost channel operates only when cost increases are small in magnitude which is consistent with theory and provides the first empirical evidence of boundary conditions

exclusive contracts and demand foreclosure a firm may induce some customers to sign exclusive contracts in order to deprive a rival of the minimum viable size exclude it from the market and enjoy increased market power this strategy may result in socially inefficient exclusion even if the excluded firm is present at the contracting stage and can make counteroffers in addition allowing for breach penalty clauses decreases firms incentives to exclude rivals because such clauses allow a firm to use customers as a conduit for the transfer of another firm s profits

menu costs posted prices and multiproduct retailers we use a unique store level data set to directly measure menu costs and to study the price change process at a large u s drugstore chain we compare and contrast the magnitude of these measures with similar measures from four large u s supermarket chains we find that 1 the actual magnitude of menu costs as a share of revenues 2 menu costs per price change 3 the frequent use of promotional pricing and 4 the use of weekly pricing rules are similar across both retail formats given that the main common features of these two types of retail formats are that i they both use posted prices and ii both are multiproduct retailers selling a large number of products our findings suggest that the magnitude of the menu cost components we measure and the price change practices we document may be generalizable across retail formats with these two features

modeling inflation dynamics a critical review of recent research in recent years a broad academic consensus has arisen around the use of rational expectations sticky price models to capture inflation dynamics these models are seen as providing an empirically reasonable characterization of observed inflation behavior once suitable measures of the output gap are chosen and moreover are perceived to be robust to the lucas critique in a way that earlier econometric models of inflation are not we review the principal conclusions of this literature concerning 1 the ability of these models to fit the data 2 the importance of rational forward looking expectations in price setting and 3 the appropriate measure of inflationary pressures we argue that existing rational expectations sticky price models fail to provide a useful empirical description of the inflation process especially relative to traditional econometric phillips curves of the sort commonly employed for policy analysis

an empirical analysis of latitude of price acceptance in consumer package goods scanner panel data analyses for sweetened and unsweetened drink categories with four brands in each support the presence of a region of price insensitivity around a reference price the analyses also suggest that consumers with higher average reference price have a wider latitude of price acceptance consumers with a higher frequency of purchase i e shorter average interpurchase time interval are found to have a narrower latitude of price acceptance because they are more aware of the range of price distributions finally consumers with a higher average brand loyalty have a wider latitude of price acceptance demonstrating greater tolerance of price fluctuations

five facts about prices a reevaluation of menu cost models are price decreases 3 the frequency of price increases covaries strongly with inflation whereas the frequency of price decreases and the size of price increases and price decreases do not 4 the frequency of price change is highly seasonal it is highest in the first quarter and then declines 5 we find no evidence of upwardsloping hazard functions of price changes for individual products we show that the first second and third facts are consistent with a benchmark menu cost model whereas the fourth and fifth facts are not

price points and price dynamics abstract a standard model of price setting is extended to include an important role for price points as well as sticky information it makes empirically reasonable predictions about the frequency of price adjustments the sizes of price increases and decreases the shape of the hazard function the fraction of price changes that are price increases and the relationship between price changes and inflation when the model of price setting is integrated into a small scale dsge model it implies plausible aggregate effects of monetary policy in contrast to a model with a prominent role for price points but no information rigidities

sticky prices new evidence from retail catalogs this paper presents new results on the size frequency and synchronization of price changes for twelve selected retail goods over the past 35 years three basic facts about the data are uncovered first nominal prices are typically fixed for more than one year although the time between changes is very irregular second prices change more often during periods of high overall inflation third when prices do change the sizes of the changes are widely dispersed both large and small changes occur for the same item and the sizes of these changes do not closely depend on overall inflation

risk management housing and stockholding this article investigates the possible explanations of the stockholding puzzle by focusing on housing and other uninsurable risks associated with income health and business taking the french household wealth survey patrimoine 2004 french national statistical institute we find that the share of financial wealth invested in stocks depends on transaction and information costs risk aversion exposure to real estate risk and to a lesser extent labour market risk these results are obtained by controlling for endogenous home ownership status

a tale of two rigidities sticky prices in a sticky information environment macroeconomic models with microeconomic foundations allow for comparisons with macro and micro empirical evidence this paper proposes a model wherein firms i acquire information infrequently generating sticky information mankiw and reis 2002 and ii face menu costs producing state dependent sticky prices i estimate parameters via indirect inference and show that under considerable real rigidity sticky prices in a sticky information environment are consistent with micro and macro evidence sticky prices not only help match micro data on price changes size and durations between adjustments they also improve the model s fit with the macro data as embodied in an empirical phillips curve

exclusionary manipulation of markets for pollution rights abstract strategic price manipulation can affect the distribution of transferable pollution rights across polluters and the efficiency of pollution control efforts prior research has concentrated on market manipulation by firms seeking only to minimize the sum of pollution rights costs and pollution abatement costs in this paper we explore the potential for the exclusionary manipulation of pollution permit markets intended to drive up the costs of one s rivals and we distinguish between the resource allocation effects of exclusionary manipulation and cost minimizing manipulation we find that exclusionary manipulation can sometimes worsen and sometimes ameliorate the abatement inefficiency which occurs under cost minimizing manipulation and that an overbuying rule can obviate or at least limit damages from this form of strategic behavior

firm types price setting strategies and consumption tax incidence abstract we analyze price responses to large restaurant vat rate reductions in two different european countries our results show that responses in the short and medium run were clustered around two focal points of zero pass through and full pass through differences between independent restaurants and chains is the key explanation for this pattern while nearly all independent restaurants effectively ignored the tax reductions and left consumer prices unchanged a substantial fraction of restaurants belonging to chains chose a rapid and complete pass through in the longer run prices converged but primarily through a price reversion among chain restaurants the stark difference in price responses does not appear to arise because of different market characteristics such as location initial price levels meal types and restaurant segment

the real thing nominal price rigidity of the nickel coke 1886 1959 we report that the price of a 6 5 oz coca cola was 5c from 1886 until 1959 thus we are documenting a nominal price rigidity that lasted more than 70 years the case of coca cola is particularly interesting because during the 70 year period there were substantial changes in the soft drink industry as well as two world wars the great depression and numerous regulatory interventions and lawsuits which led to substantial changes in the coca cola market conditions the nickel price of coke nevertheless remained unchanged we find that this unusual rigidity is best explained by 1 a contract between the company and its parent bottlers that encouraged retail price maintenance 2 a single coin vending machine technology which limited the company s price adjustment options due to limited availability and unreliability of the existing flexible price adjustment technologies and 3 a single coin monetary transaction technology which limited the company s price adjustment options due to the customer inconvenience cost we show that these price adjustment costs are of a different nature than the standard menu cost and their estimates exceed the existing estimates by an order of magnitude a possible broader relevance of the nickel coke phenomenon is discussed in the context of nickel and dime stores which were popular in the us in the late 1800s and the early 1900s

staggering and synchronization in price setting evidence from multiproduct firms theoretical work on price setting behavior focuses on the single product case while in reality a single price setter sells many products the authors use retail store level multiproduct pricing data to learn about price dynamics they find that while the timing of a product s price changes is staggered across stores selling the same product the timing of the price changes of different products sold within the same store is highly synchronized this finding validates the usual assumption that decisions are staggered across price setters and suggests that price rigidity is due mostly to mechanical reasons and not to informational asymmetries copyright 1996 by american economic association

nominal rigidities without literal menu costs evidence from e commerce abstract using price data from online book retailers amazon com and barnes and noble com we show that nominal rigidities persist in an environment that is free from literal menu costs menu costs therefore are not the prime reason for nominal rigidities

altruistic dynamic pricing with customer regret altruistic dynamic pricing with customer regret a model is considered in which firms internalize the costly regret that consumers experience when prices change unexpectedly this regret is greater when prices change by more and this can explain why the actual size of price increases for firms with rigid prices is less sensitive to inflation than in models with fixed costs of changing prices regret costs of this form also lead to more variable price changes than fixed costs do last the practice of announcing price increases in advance is easier to rationalize with regret concerns by consumers than with more standard approaches to price rigidity

optimal pricing with costly adjustment evidence from retail grocery prices in many theoretical models it is assumed that there are costs associated with adjusting prices in this paper the existence type and magnitude of such costs are investigated empirically a discrete choice dynamic programming model that nests fixed and variable costs is developed and econometric estimates of the adjustment cost function are obtained the data used to implement the model consist of weekly retail prices and sales of three brands of saltine crackers sold by four chains of grocery stores in a small u s town the study has several distinguishing characteristics first the data are highly disaggregate at the level of brand and store second variables are sampled at weekly intervals third the model nests fixed and variable adjustment costs and can therefore determine their relative importance finally the discrete choice model is both structural and dynamic

the magnitude of menu costs direct evidence from large u s supermarket chains we use store level data to document the exact process of changing prices and to directly measure menu costs at five multistore supermarket chains we show that changing prices in these establishments is a complex process requiring dozens of steps and a nontrivial amount of resources the menu costs average 105 887 year per store comprising 0 70 percent of revenues 35 2 percent of net margins and 0 52 price change these menu costs may be forming a barrier to price changes specifically 1 a supermarket chain facing higher menu costs due to item pricing laws that require a separate price tag on each item changes prices two and one half times less frequently than the other four chains 2 within this chain the prices of products exempt from the law are changed over three times more frequently than the products subject to the law in principle fixed costs of changing prices can be observed and measured in practice such costs take disparate forms in different firms and we have no data on their magnitude so the theory can be tested at best indirectly at worst not at all alan blinder 1991 p 90

synchronization of price changes by multiproduct firms evidence from canadian newspaper prices abstract using data for canadian daily newspapers we find that price changes of papers owned by the same firm are synchronized on the other hand independently owned newspapers do not appear to change their prices together

state dependent or time dependent pricing does it matter for recent u s inflation in the 1988 2004 micro data collected by the u s bureau of labor statistics for the cpi price changes are frequent every 4 7 months depending on the treatment of sale prices and large in absolute value on the order of 10 the size and timing of price changes varies considerably for a given item but the size and probability of a price change are unrelated to the time since the last price change movements in aggregate inflation reflect movements in the size of price changes rather than the fraction of items changing price due to offsetting movements in the fraction of price increases and decreases neither leading time dependent models taylor or calvo nor 1 st generation state dependent models match all of these facts some 2 nd generation state dependent models however appear broadly consistent with the empirical patterns

altruistic dynamic pricing with customer regret a model is considered in which firms internalize the costly regret that consumers experience when prices change unexpectedly this regret is greater when prices change by more and this can explain why the actual size of price increases for firms with rigid prices is less sensitive to inflation than in models with fixed costs of changing prices regret costs of this form also lead to more variable price changes than fixed costs do last the practice of announcing price increases in advance is easier to rationalize with regret concerns by consumers than with more standard approaches to price rigidity

a dynamic economy with costly price adjustments this paper studies a general equilibrium model of a dynamic economy with menu costs each firm s productivity is exposed to idiosyncratic and aggregate productivity shocks around a trend and the money supply to monetary shocks around a trend all consumption pricing and production decisions are based on optimizing behavior there exists a staggered markov perfect equilibrium with prices determined by a two sided s s markup strategy the paper analyzes the optimal markup strategy and investigates the dynamics of the price index and the aggregate output the welfare consequences of the uncertain aggregate productivity and money supply are also examined

when little things mean a lot on the inefficiency of item pricing laws abstract item pricing laws ipls require a price tag on every item sold by a retailer we study ipls and assess their efficiency by quantifying their costs and comparing them to previously documented benefits on the cost side we posit that ipls should lead to higher prices because they increase the costs of pricing and price adjustment we test this prediction using data collected from large supermarket chains in the tri state area of new york new jersey and connecticut we find that ipl store prices are higher by about 20 25 per item on average as a control we use data from stores that use electronic shelf labels and find that their prices fall between ipl and no ipl store prices we compare the costs of ipls to existing measures of the benefits and find that the costs are an order of magnitude higher than the upper bound of the estimated benefits

wealth accumulation and the propensity to plan why do similar households end up with very different levels of wealth we show that differences in the attitudes and skills with which they approach e nancial planning are a signie cant factor we use new and unique survey data to assess these differences and to measure each household s propensity to plan we show that those with a higher such propensity spend more time developing e nancial plans and that this shift in planning is associated with increased wealth these e ndings are consistent with broad psychological evidence concerning the benee cial impacts of planning on goal pursuit those with a high propensity to plan may be better able to control their spending and thereby achieve their goal of wealth accumulation we e nd direct evidence supporting this effortful self control channel in the very strong relationship we uncover between the propensity to plan and budgeting behavior

reference prices costs and nominal rigidities we assess the importance of nominal rigidities using a new weekly scanner dataset we find that nominal rigidities take the form of inertia in reference prices and costst defined as the most common prices and costs within a given quarter reference prices are particularly inertial and have an average duration of roughly one year even though weekly prices change roughly once every two weeks we document the relation between prices and costs and find sharp evidence of state dependence in prices we use a simple model to argue that reference prices and costs are useful statistics for macroeconomic

why are so many goods priced to end in nine and why this practice hurts the producers abstract the widespread phenomenon of goods being priced at d dollars and 99 cents is explained without abandoning the assumption of full rationality and it is shown that as a consequence of such pricing it is the producers who are generally worse off

the rigidity of prices this paper uses evidence on individual transaction prices to analyze price behavior the evidence shows that for many transactions pricesremain rigid for periods exceeding one year the rigidity of price ispositively correlated with industry concentration for several productsthe correlation of price changes across buyers is low the paper alsoinvestigates the relationship between price rigidity price change andthe length of time a buyer and seller have been doing business together the author interprets the evidence as emphasizing the importance of nonprice rationing and the inadequacy of models in whichprice movements alone clear markets copyright 1986 by american economic association

decision stages and asymmetries in regular retail price pass through we study the pass through of wholesale price changes onto regular retail prices using an unusually detailed data set obtained from a major retailer we model pass through as a two stage decision process that reflects both whether as well as how much to change the regular retail price we show that pass through is strongly asymmetric with respect to wholesale price increases versus decreases wholesale price increases are passed through to regular retail prices 70 of the time while wholesale price decreases are passed through only 9 of the time pass through is also asymmetric with respect to the magnitude of the wholesale price change with the magnitude affecting the response to wholesale price increases but not decreases finally we show that covariates such as private label versus national brand 99 cent price endings and the time since the last wholesale price change have a much stronger impact on the first stage of the decision process i e whether to change the regular retail price than on th

price flexibility in channels of distribution evidence from scanner data in this study we empirically examine the extent of price rigidity using a unique store level time series data set consisting of i actual retail transaction prices ii actual wholesale transaction prices which represent both the retailers costs and the prices received by manufacturers and iii a measure of manufacturers costs for 12 goods in two widely used consumer product categories we simultaneously examine the extent of price rigidity for each of the 12 products at both final goods and intermediate goods levels we study two notions of price rigidity employed in the existing literature i the frequency of price changes and ii the response of prices to exogenous cost changes we find that retail prices exhibit remarkable flexibility in terms of both notions of price rigidity i e they change frequently and they seem to respond quickly and fully to cost changes furthermore we find that retail prices respond not just to their direct costs but also to the upstream manufacturers costs which further reinforces the extent of the retail price flexibility at the intermediate goods level of the market in contrast we find relatively more evidence of rigidity in the response of manufacturers prices to cost changes this despite the fact that wholesale prices change frequently and therefore exhibit flexibility according to the first notion of price rigidity

discrete adjustment to a changing environment experimental evidence abstract a laboratory experiment illustrates cognitive limitations in decision making that may be relevant for modeling price setting our subjects systematically depart from the optimal bayesian response in several respects their responses are random even conditioning on available information subjects adjust in discrete jumps rather than after each new piece of information and by both large and small amounts contrary to the predictions of an ss model of optimal adjustment subject to a fixed cost and they prefer to report round numbers even when that requires additional effort a model of inattentive adjustment is found to quantitatively outperform popular alternatives

national natural rates of interest and the single monetary policy in the euro area national natural rates of interest and the single monetary policy in the euro area we estimate time varying national natural real rates of interest r for the four largest economies of the euro area over 1999 2016 we further derive the associated national real interest rate gaps which gauge the perceived monetary policy stance in each country we find that the average r have been lower after 2008 furthermore national r were significantly negative in southern countries during the sovereign crisis as their effective real rates soared national rate gaps across the euro area diverged however a common policy stance has been restored since 2014 as the european central bank s unconventional programs gathered pace

holiday price rigidity and cost of price adjustment the thanksgiving christmas holiday period is a major sales period for us retailers due to higher store traffic tasks such as restocking shelves handling customers questions and inquiries running cash registers cleaning and bagging become more urgent during holidays as a result the holiday period opportunity cost of price adjustment may increase dramatically for retail stores which should lead to greater price rigidity during holidays we test this prediction using weekly retail scanner price data from a major midwestern supermarket chain we find that indeed prices are more rigid during holiday periods than non holiday periods for example the econometric model we estimate suggests that the probability of a price change is lower during holiday periods even after accounting for cost changes moreover we find that the probability of a price change increases with the size of the cost change during both the holiday as well as non holiday periods we argue that these findings are best explained by higher price adjustment costs menu cost the retailers face during the holiday periods our data provides a natural experiment for studying variation in price rigidity because most aspects of market environment such as market structure industry concentration the nature of long term relationships contractual arrangements etc do not vary between holiday and nonholiday periods we therefore are able to rule out these commonly used alternative explanations for the price rigidity and conclude that the menu cost theory offers the best explanation for the holiday period price rigidity

small menu costs and large business cycles a macroeconomic model of monopoly i introduction the conflict between modern neoclassical and traditional keynesian theories of the business cycle centers upon the pricing mechanism in neoclassical models prices are fully flexible they represent the continuous optimization of economic agents and the continuous intersection of supply and demand in keynesian models prices are often assumed to be sticky they do not necessarily equilibrate all markets at all times one of the reasons for the resurgence of the equilibrium approach to macroeconomics has been the absence of a theoretical underpinning for this keynesian price stickiness this note shows that sticky prices can be both privately efficient and socially inefficient the business cycle results from the suboptimal adjustment of prices in response to a demand shock to the extent that policy can stabilize aggregate demand it can mitigate the social loss due to this suboptimal adjustment in some keynesian models prices are simply exogenously fixed 2 in others agents must set their prices in advance of the transaction date the act of altering a posted price is certainly costly these costs include such items as printing new catalogs and informing salesmen of the new price yet these menu costs are small and therefore generally perceived as providing only a weak foundation for these fixed price models however this inference is flawed small menu costs can cause large welfare losses the claim that price adjustment costs are small does not rebut the claim that they are central to understanding economic fluctuations

price points and price rigidity abstract we study the link between price points and price rigidity using two data sets weekly scanner data and internet data we find that 9 is the most frequent ending for the penny dime dollar and ten dollar digits the most common price changes are those that keep the price endings at 9 9 ending prices are less likely to change than non 9 ending prices and the average size of price change is larger for 9 ending than non 9 ending prices we conclude that 9 ending contributes to price rigidity from penny to dollar digits and across a wide range of product categories retail formats and retailers

patterns of rightmost digits used in advertised prices implications for nine ending effects analysis of the rightmost digits of selling prices in a sample of retail price advertisements confirmed past findings indicating the overrepresentation of the digits 0 5 and 9 the high cognitive accessibility of round numbers can account for the overrepresentation of 0 and 5 ending prices and suggests the existence of two effects that could account for the overrepresentation of 9 ending prices 1 a tendency of consumers to perceive a 9 ending price as a round number price with a small amount given back and 2 a tendency of consumers to underestimate a 9 ending price by encoding it as the first round number evoked during incomplete left to right processing analysis of the patterns of rightmost digits observed in the sample provides supportive evidence particularly for the second of these two 9 ending effects

why are prices sticky the dynamics of wholesale gasoline prices the menu cost interpretation of sticky prices implies that the probability of a price change should depend on the past history of prices and fundamentals only through the gap between the current price and the frictionless price we find that this prediction is broadly consistent with the behavior of nine philadelphia gasoline wholesalers nevertheless we reject the menu cost model as a literal description of these firms behavior arguing instead that price stickiness arises from strategic considerations of how customers and competitors will react to price changes

a time varying natural rate of interest for the euro area abstract we estimate a time varying natural rate of interest tvnri for a synthetic euro area over the period 1979q1 2004q4 using a small macroeconomic model broadly following a methodology developed by laubach and williams 2003 measuring the natural rate of interest the review of economics and statistics 85 4 1063 1070 for the united states the kalman filter simultaneously estimates the output gap and the natural rate of interest our identifying assumptions include a close relationship between the tvnri and the low frequency fluctuations of potential output growth the difference between the real rate of interest and its estimated natural level offers valuable insights into the monetary policy stance over the last two decades and a half

end of 9 endings price recall and price perceptions prices that end with 9 also known as psychological price points are common comprising about 70 of the retail prices they are also more rigid than other prices we take advantage of a natural experiment to document an emergence of a new price ending that has the same effects as 9 endings in january 2014 the israeli government passed a new regulation prohibiting the use of non 0 ending prices bringing an end to 9 ending prices we find that seven months after 9 ending prices have disappeared 90 ending prices acquired the same status as 9 ending prices had before the new regulation was adopted thus 90 ending prices became the new psychological price points partially eliminating the regulation s intended effect

a structural approach to identifying the sources of local currency price stability the inertia of the local currency prices of traded goods in the face of exchange rate changes is a well documented phenomenon in international economics this paper develops a structural model to identify the sources of this local currency price stability and applies it to micro data from the beer market the empirical procedure exploits manufacturers and retailers first order conditions in conjunction with detailed information on the frequency of price adjustments following exchange rate changes to quantify the relative importance of local non traded cost components markup adjustment by manufacturers and retailers and nominal price rigidities in the incomplete transmission of such changes to prices we find that on average approximately 60 of the incomplete exchange rate pass through is due to local non traded costs 8 to markup adjustment 30 to the existence of own brand price adjustment costs and 1 to the indirect strategic effect of such costs though these results vary considerably across individual brands according to their market shares

implications of rational inattention abstract a constraint that actions can depend on observations only through a communication channel with finite shannon capacity is shown to be able to play a role very similar to that of a signal extraction problem or an adjustment cost in standard control problems the resulting theory looks enough like familiar dynamic rational expectations theories to suggest that it might be useful and practical while the implications for policy are different enough to be interesting

the natural rate of interest and its usefulness for monetary policy we estimate a state of the art dsge model to study the natural rate of interest in the united states over the last 20 years the natural rate is highly procyclical and fell substantially below zero in each of the last three recessions although the drop was of comparable magnitude across the three recessions the decline was considerably more persistent in the great recession we discuss the usefulness and limitations particularly due to the zero lower bound of the natural rate for the conduct of monetary policy

inflation and costly price adjustment a study of canadian newspaper prices the paper studies the effect of inflation on price behaviour using price data from canadian daily newspapers we test the sheshinski and weiss 1977 monopoly price adjustment model on a sample of monopolistic as well as oligopolistic newspapers in contrast to earlier studies that used data from oligopolistic or monopolistically competitive markets the results depend crucially on the assumptions about how often the firm collects information and revises its optimal pricing policy with infrequent policy revisions the results for monopoly newspapers support the model the results for oligopoly newspapers are similar