development and application of a cost benefit framework for energy reliability using probabilistic methods in network planning and regulation to enhance social welfare the n 1 rule although electricity is crucial to many activities in developed societies guaranteeing a maximum reliability of supply to end users is extremely costly this situation gives rise to a trade off between the costs and benefits of reliability the dutch government has responded to this trade off by changing the rule stipulating that electricity networks must be able to maintain supply even if one component fails known as the n 1 rule even in maintenance situations this rule was changed by adding the phrase unless the costs exceed the benefits we have developed a cost benefit framework for the implementation and application of this new rule the framework requires input on failure probability the cost of supply interruptions to end users and the cost of investments a case study of the dutch grid shows that the method is indeed practicable and that it is highly unlikely that n 1 during maintenance will enhance welfare in the netherlands therefore including the limitation unless the costs exceed the benefits in the rule has been a sensible policy for the netherlands and would also be a sensible policy for other countries

the effect of process management on different types of innovations an analytical modeling approach abstract we investigate the trade off between r d efficiency and creativity during the development of a new product a firm s ability to balance efficiency with innovation positively affects its capacity to maintain its competitiveness although the trade off between efficiency and creativity has long been discussed in terms of practical application little analytical research has been performed to enhance theoretical understanding to redress this gap in the literature we present an extreme value model that accounts for innovation type and competition intensity and offer a set of theoretical and practical insights to demonstrate that the effects of process management depend on the nature of the innovation employed we show that the inverse relationship between efficiency and creativity is more pronounced if r d projects represent paradigm shifting innovations rather than incremental innovations we then demonstrate how competition drives firms to decrease investment in innovation activities and improve process efficiency to maximize profit our results suggest that process management activities are less recommended for firms that pursue radical innovation and the acceleration of growth

estimating the economic costs of electricity deficit using input output analysis the case of brazil the objective of this article is to present a methodology to estimate the marginal cost of electric energy deficit in the long term using input output i o analysis we obtain a deficit marginal cost dmc curve that is not limited to a small number of levels such as the curve used currently in brazil which is limited to four levels the marginal cost of deficit is an important exogenous parameter used in the model s chain to calculate the operation s marginal cost and short term market pricing the electric energy deficit is a temporary lack of continuity in meeting demand which is usually predictable and involves prior notice to the consumer the cause of this deficit may be a lack of investment and or low water inflows that impact the production of hydroelectric power plants in this study the marginal cost of the deficit is obtained from restrictions on the provision of electricity for productive sectors and by calculating the corresponding impact on the gross domestic product the proposed metho

estimation of the inconvenience cost of a rolling blackout in the residential sector the case of south korea abstract south korea is experiencing a serious imbalance in electricity supply and demand which caused a blackout in 2011 the korean government has planned to perform a rolling blackout to prevent large scale blackouts when the electricity supply reserve margin reaches less than 1 million kw this study attempts to estimate the inconvenience cost of household customers from a rolling blackout by using survey data to this end we apply a contingent valuation method cvm to measure their willingness to pay wtp in order to avoid a rolling blackout i e the suspension of electricity supply in this study we estimate the inconvenience costs stemming from both an unannounced and an announced rolling blackout as a result we find that the inconvenience cost of a sudden rolling blackout is estimated at 3900 67 krw 3 56 usd per month per household while that of an announced rolling blackout stands at 3102 95 krw 2 83 usd this difference in costs shows that people place value in receiving prior notice of a blackout and that inconvenience costs of between 166 0 billion krw 151 6 million usd and 174 3 billion krw 159 2 million usd per year can be reduced nationwide by giving households advance notice of a planned rolling blackout

developing marginal costs for real time pricing the authors describe an approach for forecasting day ahead hourly costs for real time pricing of electricity marginal costs have two components marginal operating costs and marginal outage costs the approach for estimating marginal operating costs is a modification of techniques developed for security constrained dispatch the approach for marginal outage costs involves estimating the economic damages associated with outages as well as the load related probability that an outage will occur data problems and procedures required for model validation are also addressed

outage costs in chilean industry this paper estimates the cost of energy shortages to chilean industry the information was obtained from a sample survey carried out shortly after the 1989 electricity restriction the results obtained show that a 10 one month equiproportional restriction involves an average net outage cost of us 7 7 kw h 1 in the same scenario the average outage cost drops to us 3 2 kw h 1 when a limited selective restriction is applied we show that under current legislation the outage cost in fact lies between the costs of an equiproportional and a selective restriction however subtle modifications to legislation would make it possible to allocate the scarce supply efficiently

optimal electricity supply reliability using customer shortage costs abstract this paper describes an economic cost benefit method for determining the optimal power system capacity and reliability of electricity supply using customer shortage costs the approach is based upon identifying a system plan that simultaneously considers cost of service as well as value of service and maximizes the net economic benefits taking into account the interdependence between electricity reliability price and demand in contrast to the existing literature on this subject which considers only customer outage costs this paper argues that it is the related but considerably broader notion of customer shortage cost that is more relevant in the context of optimizing the reliability of electricity supply the paper develops a method for estimating shortage costs and sketches an integrated framework for optimizing reliability using such costs

dynamic optimal control of process product innovation with learning by doing abstract in this paper we present a dynamic optimal control model of process product innovation with learning by doing and extend the model of chenavaz 2012 to an even more general model in which the firm s cost functions of product and process innovation depend on both the innovation investments and the knowledge accumulations of product and process innovation furthermore in our paper the product price the investments of product and process innovation are decision variables the product quality production cost the change rates of knowledge accumulations of product and process innovation are state variables the main objective of this paper is to analyze the relationships between these variables and investigate the model s optimal conditions and characteristics further we solve the model with some numerical examples and sensitivity analysis is conducted to study the effect of changing the parameters and coefficients on the objective function value

investment planning for hydro thermal power system expansion stochastic programming employing the dantzig wolfe decomposition principle this paper presents an application of the dantzig wolfe decomposition principle to the problem of investment planning in the electric power sector the formulation of the capacity planning problem incorporates uncertainties in long term load growth and in fuel supply availability in addition the formulation permits the inclusion of such demand side investment decisions as conservation as well as conventional and renewable supply investments and it allows flexibility in modeling system reliability reliability targets can be incorporated as constraints or reliability can be optimized by minimizing customer outage costs in addition to investment costs and operating costs results of an application to the pacific northwest involving problem sizes up to 30 000 rows and 54 000 columns are reported

value of service reliability the authors present the value of service vos reliability evaluation approach which explicitly incorporates into the planning process customer choices regarding reliability worth and service costs using the least cost planning framework and taking advantage of the recent advances in the quantification of outage costs this approach determines the optimal level of reliability for the utility and its customers the approach considers system operational measures the so called emergency actions that the operators invoke in times of dwindling reserves information on customer outage costs associated with such actions is incorporated using a probabilistic framework this approach permits utilities to plan for levels of reliability commensurate with the customers willingness to pay the application of this methodology to planning problems is discussed numerical results for a large utility are presented

role of targeted policies in mainstreaming renewable energy in a resource constrained electricity system a case study of karnataka electricity system in india india is aggressively pursuing its renewable energy capacity expansion goals targeted policies such as feed in tariff fit renewable purchase obligation rpo and renewable energy certificate rec are introduced to stimulate renewable energy capacity expansion as well as generation currently indian power utilities treat rpo targets as a cost burden and therefore there is prevalence of non compliance even other policies such as fit and recs in their present form have failed to influence increase in renewable electricity supply this has lead us to raise an important question whether these policies are adequate for building a cost effective renewable energy based low carbon electricity system for india in this paper we discuss the impact of above targeted policies in increasing the share of renewable electricity generation in the case of karnataka state electricity system various scenarios are developed and analysed using mixed integer programming model to study the impacts the results suggest that optimally managed fit and rec schemes can provide opportunities for utilities to benefit from reduced costs overall the above policies are inadequate and introduction of market based incentives which expand the scope of trading in renewable energy certificates are essential to achieve the desired objectives

local risk aversion in the rank dependent expected utility model first order versus second order effects abstract we evaluate locally the risk premium of a lottery in the framework of the rdeu model as the sum of two terms the first is a measure of risk aversion while the second is a measure of spreading aversion

optimal blackouts empirical results on reducing the social cost of electricity outages through efficient regional rationing abstract the demand and supply of electricity must always balance if supply falls short of demand then price increases or voluntary demand reductions might help to maintain the balance in the system should these prove insufficient then rationing is necessary rationing means interrupting the electricity delivery to certain areas or specific electricity users in order to preserve system stability since the cost of an interruption differs among electricity users the social cost of different rationing mechanisms varies this paper explores the cost difference between efficient regional rationing minimizing social costs by rationing regions with low costs first and random rationing not taking into account social costs for this the value of lost load calculations of de nooij et al de nooij m bijvoet c c koopmans c c 2007 the value of supply security the costs of power interruptions economic input for damage reduction and investment in networks energy economics 29 2 277 295 are refined for the netherlands it is shown that efficient rationing can reduce social costs by 42 to 93

optimal production with uncertain interruptions in the supply of electricity abstract in this paper we develop a model to measure expected electricity outage costs in the industrial and commercial sectors four sources contribute to the costs of outage in these sectors foregone profits output possible reduction in productivity due to the outage damage to materials and payments to labor during the outage the beginning and duration of the electricity outage are random variables with known distribution functions thus the business customer maximizes his expected profits taking into account his ability or lack of ability to respond to the random electricity outage the model is applied assuming a quadratic production function to eleven industrial branches in israel the estimates indicate a large variation in customer preferences for reliability

auctionin entry into tournaments a research tournament model with heterogeneous contestants is presented for a large class of contests the optimal number of competitors is two this insight makes designing the tournament easier and highlights the importance of selecting highly qualified contestants while customary uniform price and discriminatory price auctions are intuitively appealing mechanisms for solving this adverse selection problem in practice they generally will not be efficient mechanism for selecting contestants instead we propose an alternative auction format that is equally simple to implement and efficiently selects the most qualified contestants to compete regardless of the form of contestant heterogeneity

economic costs of electricity supply interruptions us and foreign experience abstract this paper investigates the costs of interruptions in electricity service to customers this information is a key input in planning power system reliability using an economic cost benefit approach the paper reviews the literature from the perspective of identifying alternate methodological approaches used their strengths and weaknesses and potential for bias it presents and compares outage cost estimates found in the literature on a common denominator basis it attempts to explain the sources of the wide range of variation observed in different study estimates and it identifies the need for further work on this important topic

power shortages in developing countries impacts and policy implications abstract this paper is concerned with the short and long run economic impacts of power supply inadequacy in developing countries the paper provides an overview of the methodology for assessing the economic costs of power shortages and presents monetary estimates of some components of these costs for several developing countries particularly india and pakistan the final section discusses the policy implications of the problem including the need for significant changes in investment planning and resource mobilization strategies efficiency improvements pricing reforms and the integration of public and private power suppliers

the willingness to pay by households for improved reliability of electricity service in north cyprus abstract this research examines households willingness to pay wtp for an improved electricity service households wtp is estimated using the payment ladder contingent valuation cv data from 350 in person interviews in north cyprus in order to avoid the cost of outages households are willing to incur a 13 8 increase in their monthly electricity bill a cost benefit analysis cba indicates that the annualized economic benefits of improved reliability of the electricity service would be approximately usd 35 6 million for the residential sector this figure is more than enough to finance the investments needed to completely eradicate any electricity outages in addition the fuel savings from substituting the generation of the new plants for the old plants would yield about usd 32 9 million per year in fuel savings hence a change from the current low reliability policy to one of providing a high quality service would yield an economic net present value to the residents of north cyprus of twice the investment costs or usd 173 3 million within five years

flexible strategies for load demand management using dynamic pricing the need for and potential role of flexible pricing options which offer an efficient means for achieving a utility s load demand management objectives are discussed the focus is on dynamic tariffs by incorporating real time features within one or more key parameters of the tariff such pricing options can be tailored to offer the degree of flexibility that is necessary and cost effective for achieving the given demand management objective s

least cost energy strategies for power system expansion abstract this paper describes a theoretical framework and practical procedure for identifying least cost energy strategies for power system expansion under such a strategy the socially optimal decision is defined by a least cost combination of not only conventional supply side generating options but also conservation and renewable resource options such that the cost of providing an incremental unit of electricity from all resources is the same in addition under a least cost energy strategy the reliability of electricity supply is determined on an economically optimal basis results of an actual case study of the pacific northwest region of the usa are presented

customer preferences for reliable power supply using data on actual choices of back up equipment this paper empirically examines customer preferences for the reliable sources of electricity using data obtained from a survey of back up systems owned by large computer users in japan the empirical results based on probabilistic discrete choice models indicate that 1 customers face a trade off between the price and the reliability of the power supply and 2 customer characteristics such as types of business and levels of electricity usage have significant impacts on the choice of back up apparatuses the estimates of cost changes that would offset reliability changes imply that the financial and communications sectors are more concerned about reliability than are other sectors copyright 1994 by mit press

assessing energy supply security outage costs in private households abstract the objective of this paper is to contribute to the topic of energy supply security by proposing a monte carlo based and a survey based model to analyze the costs of power interruptions outage cost estimations are particularly important when deciding on investments to improve supply security e g additional transmission lines in order to compare costs to benefits but also other policy decisions on measures that have direct or indirect consequences for the supply security e g a phasing out of nuclear energy need to be based on results from outage cost estimations the main focus of this paper lies with residential consumers but the model is applied to commercial industrial and governmental consumers as well there are limited studies that have approached the problem of evaluating outage cost when comparing the results of these studies they often display a high degree of diversification as consumers have different needs and dependencies towards the supply of electricity because of varying circumstances and preferences a great diversity in outage cost is a logical consequence to take the high degree of uncertainties into account a monte carlo simulation was conducted in this study for the case of private households in germany

evaluation of the marginal outage costs of generating systems for the purposes of spot pricing this paper describes a methodology based on quantitative power system reliability evaluation for calculating the marginal outage costs of generating systems the proposed method involves the calculation of the incremental expected unserved energy at a given operating reserve level and lead time and the multiplication of this value by the interrupted energy assessment rate of the system the method is illustrated in this paper by calculating the marginal outage cost profile of the ieee reliability test system and by examining the effect of various modeling assumptions on that profile

estimating the willingness to pay for reliable electricity supply a choice experiment study abstract this research examines households willingness to pay wtp for an improved electricity service households stated wtp is estimated using the choice experiment ce method the data used in the estimations come from 350 in person interviews conducted during the period 5 22 august 2008 in north cyprus compensating variation cv estimates for a zero outage scenario are calculated using the parameter estimates from the mixed logit ml model these are 6 65 ytl turkish lira per month 3 02 usd for summer and 25 83 ytl per month 11 74 usd for winter in order to avoid the cost of outages households are willing to incur a 3 6 and a 13 9 increase in their monthly electricity bill for summer and winter respectively the wtp per hour unserved is 0 28 ytl 0 13 usd for summer and 1 08 ytl 0 49 usd for winter a preliminary cost benefit analysis indicates that the annualized economic benefits are approximately 42 7 million ytl 19 4 million usd for the residential sector this would justify an investment in additional generation capacity of approximately 268 mw which is far more than that which is needed to eliminate the service reliability problem

digging for golden carrots an analysis of research tournaments contracting for research is often infeasible because research inputs are unobservable and research outcomes cannot be verified by a court sponsoring a research tournament can resolve these problems a model is presented in which contestants compete to find the innovation of highest value to the tournament sponsor the winner receives a prespecified prize the tournament game has a unique subgame perfect equilibrium free entry is not optimal because equilibrium effort by each researcher decreases in the number of contestants an optimally designed research tournament balances the probability of overshooting the first best quality level against the probability of falling short copyright 1995 by american economic association

estimating the economic impacts of power supply interruptions abstract the cost of power system rationing which is a crucial parameter for determining optimal resilience investments is usually estimated using reduced form linear models or ordinary input output analysis however such methods do not properly address either consumers rational reactions to rationing policy or policy design nonlinearities to solve this problem this paper estimates the effects of power system rationing using a general equilibrium model the model solution shows that the power cut distribution among industries is a critical variable for quantifying policy effects and provides insights into optimal policy design