the environmental kuznets curve environmental protection policy and income distribution abstract the effect of economic growth on pollution emissions differs substantially among high income countries i address this issue by analyzing public environmental policy decisions individual heterogeneity relative income effect and the political framework in which policy decisions are taken determine the emergence of the downward sloping segment of the environmental kuznets curve ekc income inequality produces a gap between the country s ability to pay for environmental protection and a country s willingness to pay i test this result by using oecd data on public r d expenditure for environmental protection the conclusion is that contrary to the ek hypothesis moments of the income distribution function other than the mean may be important for the emergence of a virtuous path of sustainable growth in high income countries

the open economy consequences of u s monetary policy a failure to identify movements in the federal funds rate that are both unpredictable and independent of other determinants of open economy variables may lead to attenuation bias in the estimated effects of u s monetary policy on the exchange rate and foreign variables using a u s monetary policy measure which isolates unpredictable and independent federal funds rate changes we quantify the magnitude of the attenuation bias for the exchange rate and foreign variables the exchange rate appreciation following a monetary contraction is up to 4 times larger than a recursively identified var estimate there is stronger evidence of foreign interest rate pass through the expenditure reducing effects of a u s monetary policy contraction dominate any expenditure switching effects leading to a positive conditional correlation of international outputs and prices we compare our results with those obtained using identification based upon 1 non recursive var restrictions and 2 restrictions derived from high frequency asset price behavior

determinants of female administrative support personnel compensation at a large public university compared with research on faculty salaries and executive compensations very little is known about the earnings of administrative office support personnel this paper constructed and estimated the total compensation variant of a modified human capital earnings model using a 1989 90 fiscal year microdata sample consisting of about 300 all female office workers administrative secretaries regular secretaries and clerks at a large public university the total compensation consisting of wages plus actual dollar costs of five employer paid health life accident longevity sick leave vacation and pension benefit plans specification fitted the data reasonably well the pattern of estimated differential returns to specific human capital attributes within administrative support occupations tends to be significant and is consistent with the skill atrophy prediction of the human capital theory implications of the findings for secretarial productivity career choice decisions and opportunities for advancemen

explaining the appearance and success of open space referenda many communities in the united states have begun enacting policies to preserve open space often through local voter referenda new jersey sponsors such municipal action through the green acres program by providing funding and low interest loans to towns that choose to increase property taxes and spend the money raised on open space preservation for the purposes of conservation and or recreation this paper endeavors to understand which factors contribute to the appearance and success of these measures although previous literature has examined this issue this is the first study to account for spatial dependence spatial autocorrelation and to explore dynamic issues through survival analysis the traditional two stage model from the literature is extended by incorporating a bayesian spatial probit for the first stage and a maximum likelihood spatial error model in the second stage a cox proportional hazard model is used to examine the timing of referenda appearance spatial dependence is found in the second stage of the analysis indicating that future studies should account for its influence there is no strong evidence for spatial dependence or correlation in the first stage the survival model is found to be a useful complement to the traditional probit analysis of the first stage

earnings inequality and mobility in the united states evidence from social security data since 1937 this paper uses social security administration longitudinal earnings micro data since 1937 to analyze the evolution of inequality and mobility in the united states annual earnings inequality is u shaped decreasing sharply up to 1953 and increasing steadily afterward short term earnings mobility measures are stable over the full period except for a temporary surge during world war ii virtually all of the increase in the variance in annual log earnings since 1970 is due to increase in the variance of permanent earnings as opposed to transitory earnings mobility at the top of the earnings distribution is stable and has not mitigated the dramatic increase in annual earnings concentration since the 1970s long term mobility among all workers has increased since the 1950s but has slightly declined among men the decrease in the gender earnings gap and the resulting substantial increase in upward mobility over a lifetime for women are the driving force behind the increase in long term mobility among all workers

capture and ideology in the economic theory of politics the economic theory of regulation long ago put public interest theories of politics to rest these theories have correctly been viewed as normative wishings rather than explanations of real world phenomena they have been replaced by models of political behavior that are consistent with the rest of microeconomics anthony downs 1957 james buchanan and gordon tullock 1965 george stigler 1971 sam peltzman 1976 recently however debate has arisen over whether some version of a public interest theory of regulation will have to be readmitted to our thinking about actions and results in the political arena what is at issue is the empirical importance of the altruistic publicly interested goals of rational actors in determining legislative and regulatory outcomes james kau and paul rubin 1979 kalt 1981 peltzman 1982 this study assesses the nature and significance of publicly interested objectives in a particular instance of economic policymaking u s senate voting on coal strip mining regulations the existence of such objectives is of course no contradiction of the economic view of human behavior kenneth arrow 1972 gary becker 1974 and may well be rooted in genetic biological history becker 1976 jack hirshleifer 1978 generally however individuals altruistic publicly interested goals have been given little attention this reflects the judgment that such goals are so empirically unimportant as to allow the use of occam s razor in positive models or well founded apprehensions that these goals are unusually difficult to identify measure and analyze notwithstanding the latter problem we find that approaches which confine themselves to a view of political actors as narrowly egocentric maximizers explain and predict legislative outcomes poorly the tracking and dissecting of the determinants of voting on coal strip mining policy suggest that the economic theory of politics has been prematurely closed to a broader conception of political behavior

the relevance of attitudinal factors for the acceptance of energy policy measures a micro econometric analysis abstract this paper empirically examines the individual support of the german energy transition in total and especially of six single energy policy measures which are components of the energy transition our micro econometric analysis with binary and ordered probit models on the basis of data from a broad survey of citizens reveals the important role of several attitudinal factors with respect to our indicators for perceived personal costs of the energy transition the estimation results point to a weak evidence for economic self interest due to some negative correlations between expected energy price increases due to the energy transition and the support of single energy policy measures interestingly however the concern that the energy transition alone causes strong energy price increases is not shared by the majority of the respondents the estimation results also suggest that the support of several energy policy measures is strongly correlated with environmental values however the most important attitudinal factor is obviously political identification the econometric analysis suggests that an overall left green policy identification is positively correlated with the support of the energy transition in total and an identification with ecological policy is positively correlated with the acceptance of several single energy policy measures the econometric analysis especially supports the more sophisticated categorization of political orientation since for example a liberal conservative policy orientation is not significantly correlated with the support of the energy transition in total

external shocks u s monetary policy and macroeconomic fluctuations in emerging markets estimated structural vars show that external shocks are an important source of macroeconomic fluctuations in emerging markets furthermore u s monetary policy shocks affect interest rates and the exchange rate in a typical emerging market quickly and strongly the price level and real output in a typical emerging market respond to u s monetary policy shocks by more than the price level and real output in the u s itself these findings are consistent with the idea that when the u s sneezes emerging markets catch a cold at the same time u s monetary policy shocks are not important for emerging markets relative to other kinds of external shocks

measuring the extent of earnings discrimination an update ordinary least squares ols regression and data from the march 1990 current population survey are used to estimate yearly earnings averages for white males white females black males and black females in order to test for the possible existence or gender and or race discrimination earnings estimates are decomposed using the tradional oaxaca 1973 and blinder 1973 methodology in comparing these results with those from carlson and swartz 1988 using 1979 data we find that overall and unexplained residual differences have declined quite substantially but that they still favour white males we then incorporate an extension of the traditional methodology jackson and lindley 1989 which allows for testing for the significance of enexplained residuals and for jointly testing for the significance of residual effect components the constant and coefficient effects these results call into question the unambiguous conclusion that earnings differentials uniformly favour white males strong support is

demand for environmental goods evidence from voting patterns on california initiatives this article studies voting behavior on 16 environmental ballot propositions in california in order to characterize the demand for environmental goods the environment is found to be a normal good for people with mean incomes but some environmental goods are inferior for those with high incomes at least when supplied collectively an important price of environmental goods is reduced income in the construction farming forestry and manufacturing industries income and price can explain most of the variation in voting there is little need to introduce preference variables such as political ideology

who votes for public environmental goods in california evidence from a spatial analysis of voting for environmental ballot measures abstract voting referenda provide direct evidence of the demand for public goods a number of previous studies have used referenda to analyze the support for public environmental goods these studies have used aggregate data from large jurisdictional units usually counties and summary income measures such as the mean or median and have usually found that higher income areas offer greater support for environmental propositions we examine environmental referenda voting in california using census block group data spatial dependence controls and detailed income distribution data we find that household income has a negative marginal effect on environmental referenda voting for most of the income range when using census block data in addition controls for spatial dependence significantly reduce the magnitude of most coefficients this suggests that ols estimates of referenda determinants are biased we also show that county level data may be subject to severe aggregation bias and might not be appropriate for referenda studies

a critical review and an extension of the political shirking literature after substituting actual and real changes for proposed and nominal changes in budgetary and employment levels it is clear that the size and scope of the federal leviathon had not been reduced over 1982 83 it is also clear that the agencies which witnessed real budget cuts over this period were of minor importance in terms of the total u s budget future research on why only small agencies receive real budget cuts will provide us with a better understanding of the budgetary process

the internationalisation of monetary policy abstract the case for formal central bank cooperation remains limited and practical considerations make its implementation difficult that being said central banks need to be engaged in a constant dialogue so as to remain ready for rapid coordinated action in exceptional circumstances also they should strive to strengthen the global financial safety nets within their monetary policy mandates so that they can better address global or regional liquidity crises thereby limiting the case for self insurance

is there gender discrimination in named professorships an econometric analysis of economics departments in the us south this study examines the correlates of the probability that an individual academician holds a named professorship named professorships like other positions within an organization are determined by a mixture of market and non market forces thus both merit both past and expected future productivity and discrimination may play a role regression results and blinder oaxaca decomposition tests presented here support a conclusion of gender discrimination in the named professorship process at american institutions of higher education specifically it is found that gender discrimination results in a 7 6 percentage point disadvantage for females relative to males regarding the likelihood of holding a named professorship in economics

explaining voter turnout patterns an information theory voting research is rich in empirical regularities yet a parsimonious theory of voter turnout that can match the facts has proven to be elusive this paper argues that voter turnout patterns can be explained by extending the traditional rational voter model to include limited information a model is presented in which utility maximizing consumers receive higher payoffs from voting the more confident they are of their vote choice the model provides an explanation for the most important cross sectional voter turnout patterns in addition it suggests a novel explanation for the post 1960 decline in u s participation

the gender salary gap in british academia this paper considers salary determination and the gender salary gap in the academic labour market utilizing a particularly detailed data set of academics from five old established universities results reveal an aggregate gender salary differential for academic staff of 15 most of this differential can however be explained by our model evidence suggests a limited opportunity for female academics to combine career and family despite the flexibility of an academic job and emphasizes the importance of mobility to the male career publication record is found to be an important determinant of salary

the influence of gender on faculty salaries in the united states 1969 89 this study estimates the earnings differential between the male and female faculty in the united states over a period of two decades 1969 1989 five micro level data sets are used for this purpose a modified version of the widely used oaxaca model is used in the estimations it is found that the racial earnings gap narrowed considerably more than did the gender earnings differential over this period a higher male female earnings gap at the professor level relative to junior ranks suggests that relatively recent entrants in the academic labour market face a less discriminatory environment than did their predecessors a controversial finding is that the discriminatory component of the earnings differential between male and female faculty fell between 1969 and 1984 but rose thereafter

new estimates of quality of life in urban areas implicit markets capture compensation for intraurban and interregional differe nces in amenities and yield differences in housing prices and wages these pecuniary differences become preference based weights in a qual ity of life index hedonic equations are estimated using microdata fr om the 1980 census and assembled county based amenity data on climati c environmental and urban conditions ranking of 253 urban counties reveals substantial variation within as well as among the 185 urba n areas the quality of life differences across counties within one s msa is almost one half of the difference between the top and bottom ranked counties in the nation copyright 1988 by american economic association

designing targeting rules for international monetary policy cooperation this study analyzes a two country dynamic general equilibrium model with nominal rigidities monopolistic competition and producer currency pricing a quadratic approximation to the utility of the consumers is derived and assumed as the policy objective function of the policymakers it is shown that only under special conditions there are no gains from cooperation and moreover that the paths of the exchange rate and prices in the constrained efficient solution depend on the kind of disturbance that affects the economy it might be the case either for fixed or floating exchange rates despite this result simple targeting rules that involve only targets for the growth of output and for both domestic gdp and cpi inflation rates can replicate the cooperative allocation

environmental regulation whose self interests are being protected special interest can explain why environmental policy limits economic activity in areas where air quality is above minumum standards locational competition among region helped create a policy that raised factor mobility cost from slower to faster growing regions analysis of votes shows greater support for this policy was received from northern urban constituencies and the greatest opposition came from the south and the west pollution abatement costs per unit of output are higher in areas with higher not lower air quality

voting on the environment price or ideology evidence from swiss referendums studies on preferences for environmental quality usually posit that price and income explain most of the observed choices however we argue that conceptions of social norms and the common good are equally important when analyzing environmental voting outcomes and are a significant component of the environmental demand we study aggregate results of three ballot proposals in switzerland put to vote in the year 2000 which foresaw different tax schemes on fossil energy all three bills were rejected by the electorate we are able to show that regions with producer interests car commuting habits and elderly population are less supportive of ecological tax reforms unlike higher education and leftist political affinity that work in favor of the bills though more importantly our results underline the importance of including variables pertaining to the notion of ideology both in terms of statistical fit and obtaining unbiased estimates for price and income determinants

the ideological component of senate voting different principles or different principals evidence exists on both sides of the question of whether or not legislator specific ideologically driven shirking of constituent interest occurs in this paper we use a well known model of such shirking by senators as our point of departure and add measures of inter state constituent interests the role of campaign contributions and hence the importance of whether or not senators are up for reelection we find some evidence that the model provides a stronger explanation for senators up for reelection than for those who are not and that campaign contributions help determine voting decisions by these legislators finally accounting for inter state constituent interests shirking is not a significant variable in the voting decisions of senators facing reelection thus it appears that the reelection interests of some senators have been mistaken for ideologically driven shirking

legislative voting and the economic theory of politics empirical studies of legislative voting have multiplied since the mid 1970s early work 13 distinguished two modes of representation delegates who vote as voters want and trustees who use their own judgment more recently researchers have considered only delegates claiming that legislators who use their own ideology are shirking following principal agent theory representatives are conceived as conduits through which citizens transmit and express interests empirical work on this question however has found that the legislator s ideology explains more variation in vote choices than is explained by measures of constituent interest the seeming contradiction has led some 9 10 17 to reject the economic theory of legislator behavior as erroneous the truth is that no such theory has ever been fairly stated much less tested estimating equations have been ad hoc and the usual approach to measuring ideology has imposed correlation between the equation error and an explanatory variable 8 in both cases the result is

sex discrimination in faculty salaries evidence from a historically women s university during the past several years a number of studies have appeared in this review and elsewhere examining the earnings and promotion of women faculty a finding common to most of these studies is that the female male salary differential is smallest at entry level but widens over time 2 indeed george johnson and frank stafford state after presenting such evidence for michigan state university we believe this qualitative result would be observed for any university in the united states for which the sample size is sufficiently large 1974 p 899 while the qualitative findings of faculty salary studies have been similar interpretations have differed on the one hand the human capital view attributes the widening sex differential or flatter female earnings profile to differences in acquired skill and productivity this literature emphasizes differences in continuous labor market experience hours of work and the relative teaching research division of labor on the other hand the discrimination view attributes the widening differential to increased labor market discrimination with respect to experience the sex differential is smallest at entry level where universities must compete and pay prevailing salaries to attract incoming faculty members however discrimination is more easily exercised in the internal university labor market by male faculty and administrators as job mobility lessens with age because of fixed costs tied moves 3 university specific job training a shorter benefit span etc the strongest evidence supporting the discrimination view is the existence of significant unexplained salary differentials even where detailed data exist on research and teaching performance the purpose of this note is to examine the salary structure at a large university which was historically the state s university for women but is now fully coeducational to our knowledge no other such study is available comparison of results from such a study with those already in the literature can shed light on the interpretation of salary differential studies we find somewhat surprisingly an exception to the finding by johnson and stafford and others of a widening femalemale salary differential with experience apart from some qualifications discussed below we find a small differential at entry but little difference in the reward structure to men and women with respect to experience ceteris paribus alternative interpretations of this evidence are provided while we cannot clearly test between the human capital and discrimination explanations for salary differentials our evidence strongly suggests that universities can and do exercise significant discretion in the awarding of salaries discretion which is presumably made possible by the not for profit nature of these institutions see armen alchian and reuben kessel section i briefly describes the data source while section ii examines specification and then tests for functional form section iii university of north carolina greensboro we thank terry g seaks and frank stafford for helpful suggestions we are equally responsible for the contents of the paper a partial list includes george johnson and frank stafford with later comments by steven farber and by myra strober and alice quester nancy gordon thomas morton and ina braden emily hoffman david katz marianne ferber and jane loeb ferber and betty kordick ferber loeb and helen lowry and james koch and john chizmar 2 there is debate over whether the differential begins to narrow late during the working life as argued by johnson and stafford see johnson and stafford 1977 and ferber loeb and lowry 3viewing mobility within a household context see jacob mincer the potential for discrimination against married women faculty may be higher than with male or unmarried female faculty

assessing holistic economic value for multifunctional agriculture in the us abstract this study used contingent valuation method to shed light on public preferences on the multifunctional roles of the us agriculture and to present a holistic estimate of the economic value of the nonmarket goods and services of us agriculture contingent valuation survey instrument was administered to a sample composed from the ipsos web based panel fishbein s model of reasoned behavior and mediation hypothesis were combined to model the relationship between wtp behavioral intentions and sets of explanatory variables including attitudes perceived attributes about family farms farmland preservation programs government involvement in agricultural markets and ecological state of our world and socio demographic profiles results show that while exerting a highly significant impact on wtp attitudes mediate the effects of the attribute variables on wtp i e the attributes influence wtp directly as well as indirectly through attitudes the estimated mean wtp was 515 per taxpayer annually aggregating individual wtps across the us taxpayers above 20 years old produces 105 billion representing a crude estimate of the economic value that the us consumers place on the multifunctional roles of us agriculture

a theory of competition among pressure groups for political influence this paper presents a theory of competition among pressure groups for political influence political equilibrium depends on the efficiency of each group in producing pressure the effect of additional pressure on their influence the number of persons in different groups and the deadweight cost of taxes and subsidies an increase in deadweight costs discourages pressure by subsidized groups and encourages pressure by taxpayers this analysis unifies the view that governments correct market failures with the view that they favor the politically powerful both are produced by the competition for political favors

international monetary policy surprise spillovers abstract this is the first paper to examine international monetary surprise spillovers and to estimate the response of security prices to monetary and nonmonetary surprises monetary surprises have a slope effect on the domestic yield curve short maturity yields adjust much more than longer maturity yields these results are similar to other studies the following results are new us monetary surprises spill over and affect australian yields and equity returns australian monetary surprises do not spill over to the us nonmonetary surprises are much more important than monetary policy surprises in explaining longer maturity yield changes and equity returns

what does it take to sell environmental policy an empirical analysis of referendum data we analyze the factors that influence the support for environmental policy proposals swiss referendum data show that proposals obtain more yes votes if they do not restrict consumption possibilities directly if they are endorsed by the largest business association if environmental preferences are strong and economic conditions are favorable at the time of the referendum also there are more pro environmental votes in cantons with higher population density on the other hand yes votes do not seem to depend on whether a proposal involves a tax or not

an empirical study of the determinants of green party voting i empirically study the determinants of individuals green voting behavior for this i make use of three datasets from germany a panel dataset and two cross sectional datasets the empirically strongest determinants are the voters attitude or distance to nuclear sites the level of schooling and net income i show that those voters with deviant attitudes or alternative world views are more likely to vote green a result of the fact that the green party has always had the position of a protest party i find little role for demographic variables like gender marital status or the number of children this is in contrast to the stated preference literature age plays a role for explaining voting behavior only insofar as it proxies for health

the politics of pollution party regimes and air quality in canada environmental concerns often figure prominently in opinion polls but do election outcomes actually affect the environment i test the influence of the party in power on urban air pollution in 13 canadian cities the government s political stripe is not reliably associated with positive or negative effects on air pollution provincial parties on both the right and the left are associated with elevated levels of some air contaminants federal effects also go in contrasting directions overall it appears a change in government is unlikely to be a reliable predictor of changes in air pollution jel classification q51 q58 d78

voting on open space what explains the appearance and support of municipal level open space conservation referenda in the united states abstract numerous communities in the united states have been willing to use public funds to protect open space the amount of money allocated for open space protection by local and state governments exceeds the budget of the largest federal land protection program in the u s the conservation reserve program this paper analyzes what types of municipalities hold open space referenda and the level of support for these referenda factors that increased the probability of a municipality holding an open space referendum from 2000 to 2004 were large population low population density rapid growth of the surrounding area and highly educated and environmentally concerned residents increases in median household income up to 100 000 increased the likelihood of a vote but further increases in income beyond 100 000 decreased the likelihood for municipalities holding an open space referendum factors that increased support for passage of the referendum were rapid growth low unemployment rates highly educated residents and no new taxes given high levels of support for open space referenda 76 of municipal level referenda held from 2000 through 2004 passed the spatial pattern of locally managed open space will be largely determined by the factors that affect referenda appearance on a municipal ballot this conclusion suggests that locally managed conservation hotspots will cluster around fast growing affluent communities with highly educated residents such hotspots may or may not align with overall conservation priorities non governmental and environmental organizations should focus efforts on helping communities in locally managed conservation coldspots secure open space

entry level salaries of academic economists does gender or age matter i introduction since the mid 1970s earnings differentials in academic labor markets have been extensively investigated with particular attention focused on salary differentials between males and females the leading studies use similar methodologies but differ in terms of the time period analyzed data sources and whether a single academic discipline or multiple disciplines are considered for example johnson and stafford 1974 investigate several academic professions in 1970 jusenius and scheffler 1981 consider a single discipline economics in 1973 and include a cross section of universities and professorial ranks as well as race several investigators including katz 1973 hirsch and leppel 1982 rickman 1984 and raymond sesnowitz and williams 1988 focus on a single college or university and include diverse academic disciplines the latter two studies raise the question of whether gender continued to matter in academic labor markets in the 1980s and reach opposite conclusions a consistent finding transcending early studies of academic labor markets is that earnings differentials are smallest between men and women who are at the beginning of their careers for example johnson and stafford in a widely cited study state the most important finding is that the salaries of females start out at not much less than those of males 4 to 11 percent in the six disciplines in our sample and then decline 1974 901 this paper investigates entry level salaries in a single academic discipline by considering a cross section of newly hired economists the primary source of labor market information is a unique survey of entry level salaries in the 1987 88 academic year it might seem that by the late 1980s gender differentials should have disappeared at the entry level but like johnson and stafford s 1974 earlier result our survey reveals newly hired females received 1060 3 4 percent less than males our principal purpose is to determine whether this gender differential and the effects of age are significant once other determinants of earnings are taken into account for example we consider and control for terminal degree status the quality of the ph d granting department field of specialization highest degree offered by the hiring department differences in cost of living across areas and other institutional factors that can influence beginning entry level salaries we first describe the data set developed primarily from a survey which is used to estimate entry level earnings equations we also briefly compare our survey to other surveys providing information on market outcomes for economists we then present estimates of the determinants of entry level salaries and discuss the influence of gender age and other determinants of earnings ii the survey a total of 469 u s economics departments were surveyed in the summer and fall of 1987 with 258 departments responding 55 percent 1 the 1987 88 academic year salary of each new hire was requested of each department demographic information age sex and human capital characteristics ph d granting university primary field of specialization and degree status were also requested for each new hire in addition the survey included questions on whether the hiring college university is privately or publicly supported the administrative reporting channel of the economics department highest degree offered and number of entry level persons hired the identities of the hiring department and the university at which the newly hired economist did his or her graduate work are used to construct two measures of quality the quality of the department where the ph d work was done is the first measure and the quality of the hiring department is the second 2 the survey was designed to provide microdata on individual entry level economists for the purpose of estimating earnings equations in an effort to maximize responses the questionnaire was intentionally brief only questions directly relevant to estimating the earnings equation of entry level economists were included

payment vehicles for public goods evidence from california s proposition 21 proposition 21 on california s 2010 ballot concerned an annual surcharge on vehicles to support state parks proposition 21 failed leaving 25 of california state parks at risk of closure we analyze voting patterns which we show depend on the average gross price of the proposition political ideology environmental preferences the availability of substitutes and park salience we simulate counterfactual scenarios under which proposition 21 might have passed and use holdout samples to illustrate the predictive ability of our model heterogeneity across california makes our model potentially useful for predicting public sentiment for similar propositions even for jurisdictions without direct democracy

time series evidence on shirking in the u s house of representatives this paper presents time series evidence on the voting behavior of members of the u s house of representatives from 1975 to 1990 the empirical results indicate that voting behavior of individual congressmen is remarkably stable over time we find no evidence of economically significant last term effects on voting behavior nor are there important effects of legislative tenure on voting patterns the most significant deviations in voting behavior occur for congressmen who failed to win their reelection bid suggesting that sizable deviations from previous policy positions may result in swift retribution by constituents in the district