endogenous entry and self selection in private value auctions an experimental study this paper presents the results of an experimental study of endogenous entry in first price independent private value auctions n potential bidders simultaneously decide whether to participate in an auction or receive a known outside option in the second stage entrants submit bids after learning their own private values and the number of entrants an equilibrium model of heterogeneous risk averse bidders implies a self selection effect where bidding in the auction is lower with endogenous entry because only less risk averse bidders enter this effect is confirmed by the experiment we also observe excessive entry relative to the theoretical model

the empirical content of the roy model this paper clarifies and extends the classical roy model of self selection and earnings inequality the original roy model based on the assumption that log skills are normally distributed is shown to imply that pursuit of comparative advantage in a free market reduces earnings inequality compared to the earnings distribution that would result if workers were randomly assigned to sectors aggregate log earnings are right skewed even if one sectoral distribution is left skewed most major implications of the log normal roy model survive if differences in skills are log concave however few implications of the model survive if skills are generated from more general distributions we consider the identifiability of the roy model from data on earnings distributions the normal theory version is identifiable without regressors or exclusion restrictions sectoral distributions can be identified knowing only the aggregate earnings distribution for general skill distributions the model is not identified and has no empirical content with sufficient price variation the model can be identified from multimarket data cross sectional variation in regressors can substitute for price variation in restoring empirical content to the roy model

the part time premium enigma an assessment of the chilean case proquest denotes formulae omitted working part time has been seen by some researchers public policy advisers and politicians as a way for women to find a balance between home and paid work gregory and connolly 2008 bardasi and gornick 2008 however there is no agreement on the optimal balance indeed there are contrasting views on the subject those in favor suggest that in the absence of part time jobs female labor force participation would be substantially lower sundstrom 1991 dekker 2008 according to this belief women confronted with the choice between working full time and not working at all would opt for the latter on the other hand detractors in european countries assert that part time jobs imply a waste of resources and of investments in human capital since the many part time working women who are highly educated generally make a downward occupational move when they switch from full time to part time work gregory and connolly 2008 manning and petrongolo 2008 furthermore part time jobs have adverse repercussions for the economic well being of part time working women given that public social welfare benefits wage increases and professional development might be scarce for these women leiva 2000 warren 2008 fernandez kranz and others 2011 fernandez kranz and rodriguez planas 2011 in addition in mem ber countries of the organization for economic cooperation and develop ment oecd hourly earnings are lower manning and petrongolo 2008 and employer provided training less common gregory and connolly 2008 connolly and gregory 2009 in part time jobs than in full time jobs further more in those countries though the hourly earnings gap between women and men in full time work has been narrowing the same is not the case for female part time workers and males in full time jobs manning and petrongolo 2008 part time work among women after the birth of their first child is currently responsible for some of the pay gap between men and women kanji 2011 chile s rate of female labor force participation is one of the lowest in latin american countries cepal un eclac 2011 despite female educational attainment that is similar to or higher than that of other latin american countries carrillo gandelman and robano 2013 to increase female labor force partici pation the chilean government is promoting part time and home based work for women although part time work is not as extensive as in other countries the proportion of chilean women working part time has tripled in the past ten years and part time workers now represent more than 20 percent of the female work force national socio economic characterization survey casen 2009 contreras puentes and bravo 2005 show that in chile the female labor force participation rate is positively correlated with education it is not appar ent why female labor force participation is so low discrimination in the labor market or more generally the existent gender wage gap favorable to males nopo 2012 carrillo gandelman and robano 2013 might partially explain the low female participation rate as might cultural factors contreras and plaza 2010 find that women who have internalized machista values are less likely to participate in the labor market despite concerns of endogeneity owing to data limitations contreras and plaza 2010 find a negative rela tionship between female labor force participation and conservative values puentes and ruiz tagle 2011 using the voz de mujer survey analyze the same phenomenon while controlling for possible endogenous relationships 1 they find that cultural factors are not endogenously determined by a woman s labor participation decision on the contrary it seems that whether women work has little effect on cultural factors in the short term according to their study values develop in early childhood rather than during a woman s work ing life interestingly the same 2002 survey that contreras and plaza 2010 used was reapplied by the centro de estudios publicos and released in april 2012

ambiguous solicitation ambiguous prescription we conduct a two phase laboratory experiment separated by several weeks in the first phase we conduct urn games intended to measure ambiguity aversion on a representative population of undergraduate students in the second phase we invite the students back with four different solicitation treatments varying in the ambiguity of information regarding the task and the payout of the laboratory experiment we find that those who return do not differ from the overall pool with respect to their ambiguity version however no solicitation treatment generates a representative sample the ambiguous task treatment drives away the ambiguity averse disproportionally and the detailed task treatment draws in the ambiguity averse disproportionally

demographic change tourism expenditure and life cycle behaviour abstract the paper explores how demographic changes in human populations may impact on tourism decision making of households over their life cycle by means of hurdle models the study focuses respectively on the decision to travel domestically or abroad and investigates if statistically significant differences exist as to the impact of age and cohort on the decision to travel and tourism expenditure using a vast dataset on italian household expenditures over the period 1997 2007 the empirical results show that demographic aspects do have a strong effect on the tourism behaviour of families and that cohort and age effects act differently on the decision of households to make a trip and on how much they spend on tourism age has a negative effect on the desire to travel but a positive effect on tourism expenditure on the other hand older cohorts are inclined to travel but they have a low propensity to spend on tourism relevant differences in income elasticity along the life cycle of households have also been found finally age and cohort aspects have a different effect on the decision as to whether to travel nationally or internationally

self selection and the efficiency of tournaments when exogenously imposed rank order tournaments have incentive properties but their overall efficiency is reduced by a high variance in performance bull schotter and weigelt 1987 however since the efficiency of performance related pay is attributable both to its incentive effect and to its selection effect among employees lazear 2000 it is important to investigate the ex ante sorting effect of tournaments this paper reports results from an experiment analyzing whether allowing subjects to self select into different payment schemes helps in reducing the variability of performance in tournaments we show that when the subjects choose to enter a tournament the average effort is higher and the between subject variance is substantially lower than when the same payment scheme is imposed sorting is efficiency enhancing since it increases the homogeneity of the contestants we suggest that the flexibility of the labor market is an important condition for a higher efficiency of relative performance pay

tourists spending and adherence to shopping plans the case of the christmas market in merano italy abstract the present paper investigates the determinants of tourists expenditure by categorizing tourists based on their mental budgets individuals can be divided into three categories based on the difference between their mental budget and actual expenditure underspenders on budget spenders and overspenders estimation of the empirical model is performed based on data collected through a survey of visitors to the christmas market in merano italy during advent in 2011 the estimation is performed with the heckman estimator ordered probit selection rule and linear regression we find that the spending patterns of visitors belonging to the three identified categories differ significantly analyzing visitors expenditure based on the proposed categorization allows us to identify category specific factors and develop management strategies for each category the managerial and theoretical implications of the results are discussed

counterfactual decomposition of changes in wage distributions using quantile regression we propose a method to decompose the changes in the wage distribution over a period of time in several factors contributing to those changes the method is based on the estimation of marginal wage distributions consistent with a conditional distribution estimated by quantile regression as well as with any hypothesized distribution for the covariates comparing the marginal distributions implied by different distributions for the covariates one is then able to perform counterfactual exercises the proposed methodology enables the identification of the sources of the increased wage inequality observed in most countries specifically it decomposes the changes in the wage distribution over a period of time into several factors contributing to those changes namely by discriminating between changes in the characteristics of the working population and changes in the returns to these characteristics we apply this methodology to portuguese data for the period 1986 1995 and find that the observed increase in educational levels contributed decisively towards greater wage inequality copyright 2005 john wiley sons ltd

determinants of individual tourist expenditure as a network empirical findings from uruguay abstract this paper introduces the use of graphical models for assessing the determinants of individual tourist spending these models have the advantage of synthesizing and visualizing the relationships occurring within large sets of random variables through an easy to interpret output to this end individual data from a large official survey of international tourists in uruguay are used symmetric conditional independence structures are first investigated then subgraphs of each expenditure item s neighbourhood are extracted in order to assess the impact of main effects and interactions through proportional ordinal logistic regression results highlight the marginal role of socio demographic variables and direct importance of accommodation type destination and length of stay

quantile selection models with an application to understanding changes in wage inequality we propose a method to correct for sample selection in quantile regression models selection is modeled via the cumulative distribution function or copula of the percentile error in the outcome equation and the error in the participation decision copula parameters are estimated by minimizing a method of moments criterion given these parameter estimates the percentile levels of the outcome are readjusted to correct for selection and quantile parameters are estimated by minimizing a rotated check function we apply the method to correct wage percentiles for selection into employment using data for the uk for the period 1978 2000 we also extend the method to account for the presence of equilibrium effects when performing counterfactual exercises

analysis of attendees expenditure patterns to recurring annual events examining the joint effects of repeat attendance and travel distance abstract this study examines the changes in expenditure patterns of attendees to recurring annual events with specific emphasis on the effects of repeat attendance and travel distance this study utilizes a unique dataset accumulated from six consecutive years at a recurring annual event hosted in miami united states by using the almost ideal demand system aids we estimate price elasticities and cross price elasticities among tourist expenditure categories while jointly examining the effects from the trip characteristics of repeat attendance and travel distance from the econometric analysis we find expenditure own price and cross price elasticities that conform to the literature and confirm the strong inter relationship among the respective categories of the overall travel budget in addition our results confirm a significant difference in expenditure patterns between first time and repeat attendees as well as between long haul and short haul travelers

changes in the u s wage structure 1963 1987 application of quantile regression the 1980 s witnessed rapid changes in the structure of wages in the united states in this study recently developed techniques for quantile regression are applied to every march current population survey since 1964 and changes in the return to schooling and experience at different points of the wage distribution are examined the quantile regression technique parsimoniously describes the entire conditional wage distribution this conditional distribution is used to examine changes in within group wage inequality as measured by the difference between conditional quantiles two linear models are considered a simple one group model and a 16 group model the results suggest that the returns to schooling and experience differ across quantiles of the wage distribution but their patterns of change are similar significant differences in wage inequality are also found across the various skill groups the paper also presents a new imputation method for cps data

does tourism effectively stimulate malaysia s economic growth abstract this study attempts to further verify the validity of the tourism led growth hypothesis in malaysia using a multivariate model derived from the solow growth theory it employs annual data from 1975 to 2011 we find that economic growth tourism and other determinants are cointegrated specifically tourism has a positive impact on malaysia s economic growth both in the short run and in the long run the granger causality test indicates that tourism granger causes economic growth all this provides the empirical support for the tourism led growth hypothesis in malaysia in light of this any policy initiative that promotes tourism could contribute to malaysia s economic growth

applying quantile regression and shapley decomposition to analyzing the determinants of household embedded carbon emissions evidence from urban china abstract as co2 emissions differ in households with different characteristics mitigation policies still address the contributions of these characteristics and their effects on specific households using a representative resident survey in urban china this paper compares how household characteristics differ in their associations with household embedded carbon emissions heces at different levels by quantile regression then this paper analyzes the contributions of these characteristics by shapley decomposition the findings include the following i household income is the most important contributor to the difference of heces and its positive effect increases as heces rise ii the use of wealth has different effects on heces because household housing ownership and deposits contribute little to heces but the positive effects of household car ownership contribute 25 8 iii young people and children will emit more heces than adults the employed emit more than persons who are unemployed or retired iv education increases heces overall but mainly at the low quantiles the negative effect of the marriage increases as heces rise v income car ownership marital status size and constitution of households with high heces should be addressed to reduce the inequality of heces indeed education on the low carbon concept is another way forward

effects of budgetary constraints on international tourism expenditures abstract this paper implements a logistic transition regression model to examine the relationships between gdp per capita and international tourism expenditures across countries in 2001 2010 by types of savings regimes while studies have focused on the effect of income on international tourism expenditures none consider the nonlinear smooth transition status of savings and its impacts on discretionary spending and hence expenditure on tourism the impact of income on tourism expenditures can vary under different savings regimes the results show that in a low savings regime the effect of an increase in the gdp per capita on international tourism expenditures is more pronounced in a high savings regime there is strong motivation for precautionary savings and tourism is considered a luxury therefore such spending is crowded out by an increase in savings as gdp per capita increases although international tourism expenditures also increase with gdp per capita they do so at a slower rate these findings establish an accurate understanding of the effects of savings on international tourism expenditures

the impact of geopolitical risks on travel and leisure stocks abstract the impact of geopolitical risks on tourism has not received scholarly attention in the existing literature previous studies focus on the effects of terrorism which is a subset of geopolitical risks our paper fills this gap and contributes to the literature by analyzing the vulnerability of four regional travel and leisure t l industry stock indices to geopolitical risks employing traditional and quantile regression techniques our results suggest a greater sensitivity of t l stock returns to geopolitical risks at times the industry performs poor except for asia pacific index that is the most resilient to geopolitical events we find that the negative effects of geopolitical risks are mostly driven by the threat of adverse geopolitical events only during period of falling t l stock prices however the realization of adverse geopolitical events significantly influences t l stocks at all times the results provide potential insights and implications for investors and tourism stakeholders

tourism demand modelling and forecasting a review of recent research abstract this paper reviews the published studies on tourism demand modelling and forecasting since 2000 one of the key findings of this review is that the methods used in analysing and forecasting the demand for tourism have been more diverse than those identified by other review articles in addition to the most popular time series and econometric models a number of new techniques have emerged in the literature however as far as the forecasting accuracy is concerned the study shows that there is no single model that consistently outperforms other models in all situations furthermore this study identifies some new research directions which include improving the forecasting accuracy through forecast combination integrating both qualitative and quantitative forecasting approaches tourism cycles and seasonality analysis events impact assessment and risk forecasting

nesting the aids and translog demand systems this paper shows that there exists a relatively simple demand model that is consistent with utility maximization and has nested within it both the almost ideal demand system and translog models this model is exactly aggregated then estimated using aggregate u s demand data the results are used to test the relative adequacy of the almost ideal demand system and translog models copyright 1989 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

semiparametric estimation of selection models some empirical results among the central theoretical developments in the econometric analysis of nonexperimental microeconomic data has been the analysis of selectivity bias following the work of james heckman 1974 statistical techniques were developed in the 1970s to consistently estimate the parameters of these models one potential drawback to the application of these techniques is their sensitivity to the assumed parametric distribution of the unobservable error terms in the model in recent years a number of estimation methods for selection models have been developed which do not impose parametric forms on error distributions these methods are termed semiparametric since only part of the model of interest the regression function is parametrically specified while the statistical theory of these semiparametric estimators has received much attention practical applications of the methods are lacking an exception being the paper by joel horowitz and george neumann 1987 in this paper we use semiparametric methods to reanalyze data on the labor supply of married women first studied by thomas mroz 1987 using parametric methods the object of this reanalysis is to determine whether mroz s results are sensitive to his parametric assumptions

unequal pay or unequal employment a cross country analysis of gender gaps we analyze gender wage gaps correcting for sample selection induced by nonemployment we recover wages for the nonemployed using alternative imputation techniques simply requiring assumptions on the position of imputed wages with respect to the median we obtain higher median wage gaps on imputed rather than actual wage distributions for several oecd countries however this difference is small in the united states the united kingdom and most central and northern eu countries and becomes sizable in southern eu countries where gender employment gaps are high selection correction explains nearly half of the observed negative correlation between wage and employment gaps

macroeconomic fluctuations and the allocation of time what are the fundamental driving forces of macroeconomic fluctuations in particular why do people spend more time working in booms and less in recessions these are basic questions of macroeconomics recent thinking has emphasized technology shifts preference shifts and changes in government purchases as likely driving forces it is useful to distinguish atemporal and intertemporal effects of the driving forces under standard assumptions the technology shift has no effect through atemporal channels because income and substitution effects exactly offset a straightforward decomposition of movements of employment attributes most of them to the atemporal effects of preference shifts

the informal sector wage gap new evidence using quantile estimations on panel data abstractwe estimate the informal formal sector pay gap throughout the conditional wage distribution using panel data from brazil mexico and south africa we control for time invariant unobservables and identification stems from intersector movers we control for observables in a nonlinear way using propensity score reweighting and carefully check for potential measurement errors using similar definitions of informality we obtain consistent results for all three countries informally employed workers earn much less than formal workers primarily because of lower observable and unobservable skills estimates of the conditional wage gap show that they are also underpaid compared to their formal sector counterparts in all three countries the informal wage penalty is larger in the lower part of the conditional distribution and tends to disappear at the top i e the informal sector increases wage dispersion the magnitudes of these effects vary across countries with the largest penalties in lower cond

tourism development and economic growth a closer look at panels abstract this paper applies the new heterogeneous panel cointegration technique to re investigate the long run comovements and causal relationships between tourism development and economic growth for oecd and nonoecd countries including those in asia latin america and sub sahara africa for the 1990 2002 period on the global scale after allowing for the heterogeneous country effect a cointegrated relationship between gdp and tourism development is substantiated it is also determined that tourism development has a greater impact on gdp in nonoecd countries than in oecd countries and when the variable is tourism receipts the greatest impact is in sub sahara african countries additionally the real effective exchange rate has significant effects on economic growth finally in the long run the panel causality test shows unidirectional causality relationships from tourism development to economic growth in oecd countries bidirectional relationships in nonoecd countries but only weak relationships in asia our empirical findings have major policy implications

risk attitudes randomization to treatment and self selection into experiments randomization to treatment is fundamental to statistical control in the design of experiments however randomization implies some uncertainty about treatment condition and individuals differ in their preferences towards taking on risk since human subjects often volunteer for experiments or are allowed to drop out of the experiment at any time if they want to it is possible that the sample observed in an experiment might be biased because of the risk of randomization on the other hand the widespread use of a guaranteed show up fee that is non stochastic may generate sample selection biases of the opposite direction encouraging more risk averse samples into experiments we directly test these hypotheses that risk attitudes play a role in sample selection our results suggest that randomization bias does affect the overall level of risk aversion in the sample we observe but that it does not affect the demographic mix of risk attitudes in the sample we show that the common use of non stochastic show up fees can generate samples that are more risk averse than would otherwise have been observed

human capital discrimination and the gender wage gap in bangladesh summary this paper investigates changes in the gender wage gap in bangladesh over the period 1999 2009 the gap in average wages between men and women decreased by 31 over this period this paper shows that a key driver of this change was an improvement in female educational qualifications it also demonstrates that the gender wage gap across the wage distribution narrowed much more at the lower end of the wage distribution than at the upper end it attributes this mainly to a decline in discrimination against women implications for policies aimed at more equal access to education and enforcement of equal pay legislation in bangladesh are also identified

estimating the returns to education in argentina using quantile regression analysis 1992 2002 espanoluna gran cantidad de estudios ha intentando estimar el retorno promedio a educarse examinando el efecto que tiene un ano adicional de educacion sobre la esperanza condicional de salarios trabajos internacionales recientes sugieren que en varios paises incrementos en los anos de educacion pueden resultar en cualquier efecto sobre la distribucion condicional de salarios y no solo el de incrementar la media es por esto que este trabajo examina dicho fenomeno para el caso de argentina a lo largo de un periodo de diez anos se estiman los retornos a educarse en diferentes partes de la distribucion condicional de salarios utilizando el metodo de regresion por cuantiles se analiza la posible existencia de retornos heterogeneos individuales y se encuentra que a lo largo del tiempo mientras los hombres tienen retornos educativos mayores cuanto mas arriba se encuentren en la distribucion las mujeres que experimentan los mayores retornos estan ubicadas en los cuantiles mas bajos obteniendo mayores beneficios por educarse estos resultados tienen implicancias potenciales para la expansion de las oportunidades educativas en argentina englishthere are countless estimates of the average returns to education which looks at the effect of an additional year of schooling on the conditional mean distribution of salaries recent international works suggest that there are variations from the average return to education across the population that is why in this paper we examine this possibility for the case of argentina over a ten year period we estimate returns to schooling at different quantiles of the conditional distribution of wages using quantile regression method we test whether there is individual heterogeneity in returns to education and find that over time while males have higher returns to schooling at the higher quantile women s returns are highest at the lowest quantile the evidence is suggesting that while lower ability women may benefit more from schooling the reverse is true for men our findings have potential implications for the expansion of educational opportunities in argentina

gender wage inequality during sri lanka s post reform growth a distributional analysis abstract this paper investigates gender wage inequality in sri lanka during 1992 2014 a period of robust economic growth following pro market reforms the gap in mean wages between men and women decreased steadily over this period unconditional quantile regression reveals the decline in gender wage inequality was driven by the upper half of the distribution and was due to improvements in women s observable human capital yet the pay structure became more unequal indicating widening gender gaps in the returns to labor market characteristics and in unobservable determinants of wages the gender gap in pay structure widened disproportionately in the lower half of the distribution coinciding with falling absolute and relative returns to women in manufacturing industries and production occupations facing greater international competition the study also demonstrates selection bias underestimates the gender wage gap and overestimates the gains in equality over time factors that hinder gender equality in the labor market are discussed along with policy implications

why the gender gap in wages narrowed in the 1980s since 1976 the gender gap in wages on average declined by about 1 per year this article focuses on identifying the factors underlying this trend three data sets are analyzed the current population survey the panel study of income dynamics and the national longitudinal survey we find that convergence in measurable work related characteristics schooling and work experience explains one third to one half the narrowing the remainder is attributable to a relative increase in women s returns to experience as well as to declining wages in blue collar work and other factors

the dynamics of intraurban quantile house price indexes estimating price indexes for different quantiles shows how prices vary for homes that are in different stages of the filtering process the paper describes a filtering model and its implication for the dynamic interaction of housing prices at these various stages a time series analysis of quantile price indexes for three municipalities near chicago supports the predictions of the filtering model

the long run impact of exchange rate regimes on international tourism flows abstract notwithstanding the systematic inclusion of an exchange rate variable of some form in studies examining international tourism flows hardly any research has been carried out to test for a possible exchange rate regime effect drawing from recent advances in exchange rate regime classifications this paper begins to fill this gap by investigating the impact of exchange rate regimes on international tourism flows the study employs a system generalized methods of moments sys gmm estimation for tourist arrivals on a panel of 27 organization for economic co operation and development oecd and non oecd countries for the period 1980 2011 the results identify multiple exchange rate regime effects and support the importance of maintaining a relatively stable exchange rate to attract international tourist arrivals

earnings distribution of cuban immigrants in the usa evidence from quantile regression with sample selection abstractthis article analyses the conditional earnings distribution for cuban immigrants in the usa considering buchinsky sample selection in a quantile regression model the test proposed by huber and melly to test the independence between error terms and regressors conditional on the selection probability is also considered this is the first attempt in the migration literature to use quantile regression with sample selection the data used come from the us american community survey the results show that the hypothesis of conditional independence is not rejected and increments in earnings associated with the usual socioeconomic characteristics in labour studies vary between the cohorts considered the main conclusions are that a decline in returns from education may be a sign that a high level of education no longer provides a competitive advantage and that being a black person is associated with substantially lower earnings regardless of the individuals position in the earnings distribution this

parametric and semiparametric estimation of sample selection models an empirical application to the female labour force in portugal this paper applies both parametric and semiparametric methods to the estimation of wage and participation equations for married women in portugal the semiparametric estimators considered are the two stage estimators proposed by newey 1991 and andrews and schafgans 1998 the selection equation results are compared using the specification tests proposed by horowitz 1993 horowitz and hardle 1994 and the wage equation results are compared using a hausman test significant differences between the two approaches indicate the inappropriateness of the standard parametric methods to the estimation of the model and for the purpose of policy simulations the greater departure seems to occur in the range of the low values of the index corresponding to a specific group of women copyright 2001 john wiley sons ltd

oil prices tourism income and economic growth a structural var approach for european mediterranean countries abstract in this study a structural var model is employed to investigate the relationship among oil price shocks tourism variables and economic indicators in four european mediterranean countries in contrast with the current tourism literature we distinguish between three oil price shocks namely supply side aggregate demand and oil specific demand shocks overall our results indicate that oil specific demand shocks contemporaneously affect inflation and the tourism sector equity index whereas these shocks do not seem to have any lagged effects by contrast aggregate demand oil price shocks exercise a lagged effect either directly or indirectly to tourism generated income and economic growth the paper does not provide any evidence that supply side shocks trigger any responses from the remaining variables results are important for tourism agents and policy makers should they need to create hedging strategies against future oil price movements or plan for economic policy developments

the sensitivity of an empirical model of married women s hours of work to economic and statistical assumptions this study undertakes a systematic analysis of several theoretic and statistical assumption s used in many empirical models of female labor supply using a singl e data set psid 1975 labor supply data the author is able to replic ate most of the range of estimated income and substitution effects fo und in previous studies in this field he undertakes extensive specif ication tests and finds that most of this range should be rejected du e to statistical and model misspecifications the two most important assumptions appear to be the tobit assumption used to control for sel f selection into the labor force and exogeneity assumptions on the wi fe s wage rate and her labor market experience copyright 1987 by the econometric society

does school quality matter returns to education and the characteristics of public schools in the united states this paper estimates the effects of school quality measured by the pupil teacher ratio average term length and relative teacher pay on the rate of return to education for men born between 1920 and 1949 using earnings data from the 1980 census we find that men who were educated in states with higher quality schools have a higher return to additional years of schooling rates of return are also higher for individuals from states with better educated teachers and with a higher fraction of female teachers holding constant school quality measures however we find no evidence that parental income or education affects average state level rates of return

domestic tourism expenditures the non linear effects of length of stay and travel party size the independent variables length of stay and travel party size are recurrent determinants of expenditures in micro level tourism studies in most of this research it has been tacitly assumed that these variables have linear effects on tourism spending this study situated in a norwegian setting questions this approach by explicitly scrutinizing the possible non linearities in the relationships between tourism expenditures on the one hand and length of stay and travel party size on the other the empirical results suggest a positive but diminishing relationship between length of stay and tourism expenditures and a convex i e u relationship between travel party size and tourism expenditures the study also considers how a number of other key independent variables affect tourism expenditures finally some managerial and scholarly implications are discussed

intertemporal substitution in labor supply evidence from micro data the sensitivity of the supply of labor to intertemporal variation in the wage is an important issue in macroeconomics the analysis of social security and pensions and the study of life cycle patterns of work this paper explores two approaches to the measurement of intertemporal substitution that have appeared in the literature the first approach is to use consumption to control for wealth and unobserved expectations about future wages in the labor supply equation the second approach is to estimate a first difference equation for hours in which labor supply from the previous period serves as a control for wealth and wage expectations the results indicate that intertemporal substitution elasticity for married men is positive but small

double penalty in returns to education informality and educational mismatch in the colombian labour market abstractthis article examines the returns to education taking into consideration the existence of educational mismatches in the formal and informal employment of a developing country results show that the returns of surplus required and deficit years of schooling are different in the two sectors moreover they suggest that these returns vary along the wage distribution and that the pattern of variation differs for formal and informal workers in particular informal workers face not only lower returns to their education but suffer a second penalty associated with educational mismatches that puts them at a greater disadvantage compare to their formal counterparts

an analysis of consumption behaviour of foreign tourists in ireland the objective of this article is to analyse the consumption behaviour of foreign tourists in ireland based on the almost ideal demand system five demand systems are estimated four representing the major source markets of tourists to ireland namely from britain north america mainland europe and rest of the world and one aggregate model based on a pooled sample each system included six commodity aggregates representing the major consumables of tourists estimated models were statistically significant and the derived elasticities are theoretically consistent and empirically plausible while there are some variations in the consumption patterns of tourists from different source markets reflecting differences in consumer preferences and consumption habits in general tourist demand for the various irish tourism goods and services is found to be price inelastic this finding is consistent with a priori expectations as tourists are obliged to consume whatever is available at the destination they visit

economics of tourist s consumption behaviour some evidence from australia abstract this study analyses the consumption behaviour of international tourists from australia s four major source markets new zealand uk usa and japan a preliminary analysis of their consumption expenditures reveals intriguing similarities as well as diversities in consumption patterns these are sought to understand in terms of the utility maximising framework in which observed differences in prices and incomes play a key role based on the neoclassical economic theory of consumer behaviour models incorporating five major components of tourist consumption accommodation food transport shopping and entertainment are estimated overall the level of tourist consumption is found to be highly sensitive to incomes but less sensitive to prices the low price sensitivity suggests tourists perceive the commodities as necessities and may also reflect their captivity at the destination masking the underlying true price sensitivities an important dimension underlying these findings is the possible lack of information about the destination leading to sub optimal consumption choices

changes in wage structure in urban india 1983 2004 a quantile regression decomposition summary this paper utilizes individual level earnings data from urban india to examine the evolution of wages during 1983 2004 across the entire wage distribution quantile regression analysis reveals that the effects of many covariates are not constant across distribution returns to secondary and tertiary education not only increased in the 1990s but also became more heterogeneous suggesting wage inequality may increase further in near future as more workers get higher education moreover the quantile regression decomposition suggests that the increase in returns has been the driving force behind the increase in wages in both the 1980s and 1990s

the changing distribution of male wages in the uk this paper uses microeconomic data from the u k family expenditure surveys fes and the general household surveys ghs to describe and explain changes in the distribution of male wages since the late 1970s wage inequality has risen very fast in the u k and this rise is characterized both by increasing education and age differentials we show that a large part of the changes in the u k can be summarized quite simply as increases in eduction differentials and a decline of growth of entry level wages which persist subsequently this fact we interpret as cohort effects we also show that like in the u s an important aspect of rising wage inequality is increased within group wage dispersion finally we use the ghs to evaluate the role of alternative education measures

implications of a long term increase in oil prices for tourism it is expected that global oil prices will increase in the future assessing the overall economic impacts on tourism is difficult as oil price rises will be concomitant with global changes in other commodity prices exchange rates and incomes a general equilibrium perspective is therefore presented in this paper the model couples a global general equilibrium model with a purpose built cge model of new zealand which focuses on describing tourism supply and demand in some detail the results indicate a decrease in real gross national disposable income of 1 7 for a doubling of oil price and a 9 reduction in the real value of tourism exports as a result of segment specific price increases and differing income and exchange rate effects and elasticities the reduction in demand for tourism in new zealand by 18 segments differs substantially the greatest reduction in demand is observed for tourists from the united kingdom

the dynamics of changes in the female wage distribution in the usa a quantile regression approach this paper examines the female wage structure focusing on changes at different points in the wage distribution newly developed quantile regression methods are used in analysing data from the march current population survey the results show that while the most significant changes for the less skilled women took place at the bottom of the wage distribution for the more skilled groups changes occurred at both ends of the distribution consequently wage inequality decreased for the high school graduates and increased for the younger college graduates furthermore the more highly skilled women experienced the steepest gain in wages regardless of their position in the distribution 1998 john wiley sons ltd

rationally inattentive macroeconomic wedges abstract this paper argues that the solution to a dynamic optimization problem of consumption and labor under finite information processing capacity can simultaneously explain the intertemporal and intratemporal labor wedges it presents a partial equilibrium model where a representative risk adverse consumer chooses information about wealth with limited attention the paper compares ex post realizations of models with finite and infinite capacity the model produces macroeconomic wedges and measures of elasticity consistent with the literature these findings suggest that aconsumption labor model with information processing constraints can explain the difference between predicted and observed consumption and employment behavior

changes in the distribution of male and female wages accounting for employment composition using bounds this paper examines changes in the distribution of wages using bounds to allow for the impact of nonrandom selection into work we show that worst case bounds can be informative however because employment rates in the united kingdom are often low they are not informative about changes in educational or gender wage differentials thus we explore ways to tighten these bounds using restrictions motivated from economic theory with these assumptions we find convincing evidence of an increase in inequality within education groups changes in educational differentials and increases in the relative wages of women

a comparison study of travel expenditure and consumption choices between first time and repeat visitors abstract this study examines the differences in expenditures and consumers product consumption choices between first time and repeat visitors we applied the data collected from the 2009 annual survey report on visitor expenditure and trends in taiwan to estimate visitors demand of five major travel products accommodation food transportation entertainment and shopping the almost ideal demand system analysis results suggested the consumption of most products followed the law of demand the resulting income elasticity also indicated these products were normal goods in addition we found that previous travel experience does not generate significant differences in preference and consumption patterns

overconfidence and excess entry an experimental approach psychological studies show that most people are overconfident about their own relative abilities and unreasonably optimistic about their futures e g shelly e taylor and j d brown 1988 neil d weinstein 1980 when assessing their position in a distribution of peers on almost any positive trait like driving ability ola svenson 1981 income prospects or longevity a vast majority of people say they are above the average although of course only half can be if the trait is symmetrically distributed this paper explores whether optimistic biases could plausibly and predictably influence economic behavior in one particular setting entry into competitive games or markets many empirical studies show that most new businesses fail within a few years for example using plant level data from the u s census of manufacturers spanning 1963 1982 timothy dunne et al 1988 estimated that 61 5 percent of all entrants exited within five years and 79 6 percent exited within 10 years most of these exits are failures see also dunne et al 1989a 1989b d shapiro and r s khemani 1987

down from the mountain skill upgrading and wages in appalachia the appalachian region has experienced persistently higher poverty and lower earnings than the rest of the united states we examine whether skill differentials or differences in the returns to those skills lie at the root of the appalachian wage gap using census data we decompose the appalachian wage gap using both mean and full distribution methods our findings suggest that significant upgrading of skills within the region has prevented the gap from widening over the last 20 years additionally we find that urban areas within appalachia have not experienced the rise in returns to skills as in non appalachian urban areas

micro economic determinants of tourist expenditure a quantile regression approach abstract we assess the effect of the main determinants of tourist expenditure by applying both linear and quantile regression models to individual micro data collected by a survey addressed to non resident tourists who spent their holidays in sardinia during the period april october 2012 we find that in addition to income and foreign nationality tourist expenditure is crucially driven by trip related party size stay length accommodation sea and sun typology and transport modality and psychographic characteristics repeated visits and holiday motivations moreover our results indicate that the effects vary with respect to the expenditure component and the level of spending thus confirming the high complexity of the tourism product higher positive effects were found for heavy spenders in the case of foreign nationality previous visits and notoriety motivated holidays while party size and the number of visited sites contribute to reducing the level of expenditure for light spending tourists

forecasting international city tourism demand for paris accuracy of uni and multivariate models employing monthly data abstract the purpose of this study is to compare the predictive accuracy of various uni and multivariate models in forecasting international city tourism demand for paris from its five most important foreign source markets germany italy japan uk and us in order to achieve this seven different forecast models are applied ec adlm classical and bayesian var tvp arma and ets as well as the naive 1 model serving as a benchmark the accuracy of the forecast models is evaluated in terms of the rmse and the mae the results indicate that for the us and uk source markets univariate models of arma 1 1 and ets are more accurate but that multivariate models are better predictors for the german and italian source markets in particular bayesian var for the japanese source market the results vary according to the forecast horizon overall the naive 1 benchmark is significantly outperformed across nearly all source markets and forecast horizons

how immigrants fare across the earnings distribution in australia and the united states this paper investigates determinants of the earnings distribution for native born workers and immigrant workers in two countries the authors using data from the 2000 u s census and 2001 australian census employ a methodology quantile regression that facilitates measurement of the native born immigrant earnings differential and the partial effect of explanatory variables such as schooling and experience at each decile of the earnings distribution they find evidence that schooling and labor market experience had stronger earnings effects at higher deciles the native immigrant earnings gap varied by decile and in particular increased in the united states at higher deciles the results suggest that in the united states minimum wages compressed earnings at low deciles whereas in australia the minimum administered wage system compressed earnings across the entire distribution a pattern of higher earnings for immigrants than for the native born at the lowest earnings decile in australia may reflect favorable selectivity in migration

vacation length choice a dynamic mixed multinomial logit model abstract this paper uses panel data to develop and estimate a dynamic model of choice of the length of stay of a vacation controlling for unobserved heterogeneity and state dependency length of stay options vary from short 1 3 nights medium 4 9 nights to long vacations 10 nights or more and the decision not to go on vacation in a particular year independent variables include family lifecycle stage income month and lags of the dependent variable results indicate that long holidays are most strongly affected by trips made previously in the same year than medium and short vacations in contrast there is an increased need for a vacation when any medium or long trips were not yet made in the current year month specific variables confirm that respondents have preferences for making leisure trips during the main holidays and warm seasons the observed differences given the various lifecycle stages reflect imposed constraints given age and or household composition that are typical of each particular group

changes in the distribution of house prices over time structural characteristics neighborhood or coefficients quantile hedonic house price function estimates imply that appreciation rates were higher between 1995 and 2005 for high priced homes in chicago decompositions of temporal changes in the house price distribution suggest that the types of homes sold and their location do not account for the change in the price distribution rather higher appreciation rates for high priced homes are explained by differences in the quantile regression coefficients over time

optimal sticky prices under rational inattention this paper presents a model in which price setting firms decide what to pay attention to subject to a constraint on information flow when idiosyncratic conditions are more variable or more important than aggregate conditions firms pay more attention to idiosyncratic conditions than to aggregate conditions when we calibrate the model to match the large average absolute size of price changes observed in micro data prices react fast and by large amounts to idiosyncratic shocks but only slowly and by small amounts to nominal shocks nominal shocks have strong and persistent real effects we use the model to investigate how the optimal allocation of attention and the dynamics of prices depend on the firms environment jel e 3 e5 d8

an econometric study of tourism demand the aids model of us and european tourism in mediterranean countries the almost ideal demand system aids model was used to estimate tourism expenditure allocation by us and west european countries among a range of mediterranean destinations the approach has the advantage of an explicit basis in consumer expenditure theory and by modelling the changes in the budget shares of expenditure among destinations provides new information relative to that provided by the traditional single equation approach the estimated model was econometrically satisfactory although symmetry and homogeneity were rejected in line with the findings of past studies of consumer demand the expenditure elasticities demonstrated considerable differences in tourism demand preferences between origin countries and between traditional and newly developing destinations the own and cross price elasticities indicated the importance of effective prices in determining the allocation of expenditure among destinations

implications of rational inattention abstract a constraint that actions can depend on observations only through a communication channel with finite shannon capacity is shown to be able to play a role very similar to that of a signal extraction problem or an adjustment cost in standard control problems the resulting theory looks enough like familiar dynamic rational expectations theories to suggest that it might be useful and practical while the implications for policy are different enough to be interesting

quadratic engel curves and consumer demand this paper presents a model of consumer demand that is consistent with the observed expenditure patterns of individual consumers in a long time series of expenditure surveys and is also able to provide a detailed welfare analysis of shifts in relative prices a nonparametric analysis of consumer expenditure patterns suggests that engel curves require quadratic terms in the logarithm of expenditure while popular models of demand such as the translog or the almost ideal demand systems do allow flexible price responses within a theoretically coherent structure they have expenditure share engel curves that are linear in the logarithm of total expenditure we derive the complete class of integrable quadratic logarithmic expenditure share systems a specification from this class is estimated on a large pooled data set of u k households models that fail to account for engel curvature are found ro generate important distortions in the patterns of welfare losses associated with a tax increase

caviar conditional autoregressive value at risk by regression quantiles value at risk var has become the standard measure of market risk employed by financial institutions for both internal and regulatory purposes var is defined as the value that a portfolio will lose with a given probability over a certain time horizon usually one or ten days despite its conceptual simplicity its measurement is a very challenging statistical problem and none of the methodologies developed so far give satisfactory solutions interpreting the var as the quantile of future portfolio values conditional on current information we propose a new approach to quantile estimation which does not require any of the extreme assumptions invoked by existing methodologies such as normality or i i d returns the conditional autoregressive value at risk or caviar model moves the focus of attention from the distribution of returns directly to the behavior of the quantile we specify the evolution of the quantile over time using a special type of autoregressive process and use the regression quantile framework introduced by koenker and bassett to determine the unknown parameters since the objective function is not differentiable we use a differential evolutionary genetic algorithm for the numerical optimization utilizing the criterion that each period the probability of exceeding the var must be independent of all the past information we introduce a new test of model adequacy the dynamic quantile test applications to simulated and real data provide empirical support to this methodology and illustrate the ability of these algorithms to adapt to new risk environments

public private sector wage gap by gender in egypt evidence from quantile regression on panel data 1998 2018 abstract this paper estimates the public formal private wage gap in egypt using egypt labor market panel survey for the 20 year period of 1998 2018 for men and women separately we estimate the public formal private sector wage gap with wage equations including a public sector indicator both at the mean and at different quantiles of the conditional wage distribution using the panel feature of the data we also address the endogenous employment and the sector of employment selection issue and find a persistent public wage penalty for the males and public wage premium for the females except at the top even after controlling for the observable and the time invariant unobservable characteristics we further examine the public wage gap over time and in different sub samples by potential experience skill levels and regions generally the results are consistent with a decrease in the public wage gap for both men and women over the period considered we further provide evidence on the quality of workers we find that the public sector fails to attract better quality men throughout the conditional wage distribution while it manages to attract better quality women in the lower parts of the conditional wage distribution but not at the top all on the basis of time invariant unobservable attributes these results indicate concern for the efficient provision of public services