occupational choice and the process of development this paper models economic development as a process of institutional transformation by focusing on the interplay between agents occupational decisions and the distribution of wealth because of capital market imperfections poor agents choose working for a wage over self employment and wealthy agents become entrepreneurs who monitor workers only with sufficient inequality however will there be employment contracts otherwise there is either subsistence or self employment thus in static equilibrium the occupational structure depends on distribution since the latter is itself endogenous we demonstrate the robustness of this result by extending the model dynamically and studying examples in which initial wealth distributions have long run effects in one case the economy develops either widespread cottage industry self employment or factory production employment contracts depending on the initial distribution in the other example it develops into prosperity or stagnation

how important is variability in consumer credit limits abstract using a large panel this paper first demonstrates that individuals gain and lose access to credit frequently the estimated credit limit volatility is larger than most estimates of income volatility and varies over the business cycle within a model variable credit limits create a reason for households to hold both high interest debts and low interest savings at the same time using the estimated credit volatility the model explains why around one third of american households engage in this credit card puzzle the approach also offers an important new channel through which financial system uncertainty can affect household decisions

credit market constraints consumption smoothing and the accumulation of durable production assets in low income countries investments in bullocks in india in this paper we formulate and estimate a finite horizon structural dynamic model of agricultural investment behavior that incorporates the major features of low income agricultural environments income uncertainty constraints on borrowing and rental markets and the use of investment assets to generate income and smooth consumption the model is fit to longitudinal indian household data on farm profits bullock stocks and pump sets the estimated structural parameters are used to assess the effects on the life cycle accumulation of bullocks agricultural profits and welfare associated with complete markets and bullock liquidity and with second best policies that provide assured sources of income to farmers and weather insurance

unemployment risk and precautionary wealth evidence from households balance sheets this paper examines precautionary behavior by relating job loss risk to household net worth we use existing best practice and some new strategies to deal with some problematic issues inherent in this literature regarding proxying uncertainty instrumentation and incorporating theoretical restrictions we do not find precautionary variation in the wealth holdings of households with low permanent income but do find precautionary effects for moderate and higher income households when the dependent variable is total net worth these findings are robust to several alternative specifications but we do not find precautionary responses in subaggregates of wealth that exclude home equity

financial intermediation and endogenous growth an endogenous growth model with multiple assets is developed agents who face random future liquidity needs accumulate capital and a liquid but unproductive asset the effects of introducing financial intermediation into this environment are considered conditions are provided under which the introduction of intermediaries shifts the composition of savings toward capital causing intermediation to be growth promoting in addition intermediaries generally reduce socially unnecessary capital liquidation again tending to promote growth

microfinance and poverty evidence using panel data from bangladesh micro finance supports mainly informal activities that often have low market demand it may be thus hypothesized that the aggregate poverty impact of micro finance in an economy with low economic growth is modest or nonexistent the observed borrower level poverty impact is then a result of income redistribution or short run income generation the author addresses these questions using household level panel data from bangladesh the findings confirm that micro finance benefits the poorest and has sustained impact in reducing poverty among program participants it also has positive spillover impact reducing poverty at the village level but the effect is more pronounced in reducing extreme rather than moderate poverty

the nature of precautionary wealth abstract this paper uses the panel study of income dynamics to provide some of the first direct evidence that wealth is systematically higher for consumers with predictably greater income uncertainty however the apparent pattern of precautionary wealth is not consistent with a standard parameterization of the life cucle model in which consumers are patient enough to begin saving for retirement early in life wealth is estimated to be far less sensitive to uncertainty than implied by that model instead our results suggest that over most of their working life time consumers behave in accordance with the buffer stock models of saving described in carroll 1992 1997 or deaton 1991 in which consumers hold wealth principally to insulate consumption against near term fluctuations in income

informal insurance arrangements with limited commitment theory and evidence from village economies recent work on consumption allocations in village economies finds that idiosyncratic variation in consumption is systematically related to idiosyncratic variation in income thus rejecting the hypothesis of full risk pooling we attempt to explain these observations by adding limited commitment as an impediment to risk pooling we provide a general dynamic model and completely characterise efficient informal insurance arrangements constrained by limited commitment and test the model using data from three indian villages we find that the model can fully explain the dynamic response of consumption to income but that it fails to explain the distribution of consumption across households

income distribution and macroeconomics this paper analyzes the role of wealth distribution in macroeconomics through investment in human capital it is shown that in the presence of credit markets imperfections and indivisibilities in investment in human capital the initial distribution of wealth affects aggregate output and investment both in the short and in the long run as there are multiple steady states this paper therefore provides an additional explanation for the persistent differences in per capita output across countries furthermore the paper shows that cross country differences in macroeconomic adjustment to aggregate shocks can be attributed among other factors to differences in wealth and income distribution across countries

per capita carbon dioxide emissions convergence or divergence understanding and considering the distribution of per capita carbon dioxide co2 emissions is important in designing international climate change proposals and incentives for participation i evaluate historic international emissions distributions and forecast future distributions to assess whether per capita emissions have been converging or will converge i find evidence of convergence among 23 member countries of the organisation for economic co operation and development oecd whereas emissions appear to be diverging for an 88 country global sample over 1960 2000 forecasts based on a markov chain transition matrix provide little evidence of future emissions convergence and indicate that emissions may diverge in the near term i also review the shortcomings of environmental kuznets curve regressions and structural models in characterizing future emissions distributions

evaluation of financial liberalization a general equilibrium model with constrained occupation choice the objective of this paper is to assess both the aggregate growth effects and the distributional consequences of financial liberalization as observed in thailand from 1976 to 1996 a general equilibrium occupational choice model with two sectors one without intermediation and the other with borrowing and lending is taken to thai data key parameters of the production technology and the distribution of entrepreneurial talent are estimated by maximizing the likelihood of transition into business given initial wealth as observed in two distinct datasets other parameters of the model are calibrated to try to match the two decades of growth as well as observed changes in inequality labor share savings and the number of entrepreneurs without an expansion in the size of the intermediated sector thailand would have evolved very differently namely with a drastically lower growth rate high residual subsistence sector non increasing wages but lower inequality the financial liberalization brings welfare gains and losses to different subsets of the population primary winners are talented would be entrepreneurs who lack credit and cannot otherwise go into business or invest little capital mean gains for these winners range from 17 to 34 percent of observed overall average household income but liberalization also induces greater demand by entrepreneurs for workers resulting in increases in the wage and lower profits of relatively rich entrepreneurs of the same order of magnitude as the observed overall average income of firm owners foreign capital has no significant impact on growth or the distribution of observed income

a theory of the consumption function with and without liquidity constraints fifteen years ago milton friedman s 1957 treatise a theory of the consumption function seemed badly dated dynamic optimization theory had not been employed much in economics when friedman wrote and utility theory was still comparatively primitive so his statement of the permanent income hypothesis never actually specified a formal mathematical model of behavior derived explicitly from utility maximization instead friedman relied at crucial points on intuition and verbal descriptions of behavior although these descriptions sounded plausible when other economists subsequently found multiperiod maximizing models that could be solved explicitly the implications of those models differed sharply from friedman s intuitive description of his model furthermore empirical tests in the 1970s and 1980s often rejected these rigorous versions of the permanent income hypothesis in favor of an alternative hypothesis that many households simply spent all of their current income today with the benefit of a further round of mathematical and computational advances friedman s 1957 original analysis looks more prescient than primitive it turns out that when there is meaningful uncertainty in future labor income the optimal behavior of moderately impatient consumers is much better described by friedman s original statement of the permanent income hypothesis than by the later explicit maximizing versions furthermore in a remarkable irony much of the empirical evidence that rejected the permanent income hypothesis as specified in tests of the 1970s and 1980s is actually consistent both with friedman s original description of the model and with the new version with serious uncertainty there are four key differences between the explicit maximizing models

saving and liquidity constraints this paper is concerned with the theory of saving when consumers are not permitted to borrow and with the ability of such a theory to account for some of the stylized facts of saving behavior the models presented in the paper seem to account for important aspects of reality that are not explained by traditional life cycle models copyright 1991 by the econometric society

how important are banks for development national banks in the united states 1870 1900 abstract do banks matter for growth and if so how this paper examines the effects of national banks in the united states from 1870 to 1900 i use the discontinuity in entry caused by a large minimum size requirement to identify the effects of banking for the counties on the margin between getting a bank and not gaining a bank increased production per person by 10 national banks in rural areas improved agriculture over manufacturing moving counties toward geographic comparative advantage since these banks made few long term loans the evidence suggests that the provision of working capital and liquidity matters for growth

measuring and understanding behavior welfare and poverty angus deaton delivered his prize lecture on tuesday 8 december 2015 at the aula magna stockholm university these are the lecture slides this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

financial development growth and the distribution of income a paradigm is presented in which both the extent of financial intermediation and the rate of economic growth are endogenously determined financial intermediation promotes growth because it allows a higher rate of return to be earned on capital and growth in turn provides the means to implement costly financial structures thus financial intermediation and economic growth are inextricably linked in accord with the goldsmith mckinnon shaw view on economic development the model also generates a development cycle reminiscent of the kuznet hypothesis in particular in the transition from a primitive slow growing economy to a developed fast growing one a nation passes through a stage in which the distribution of wealth across the rich and poor widens

do liquidity constraints and interest rates matter for consumer behavior evidence from credit card data this paper utilizes a unique new dataset of credit card accounts to analyze how people respond to changes in credit supply the data consist of a panel of thousands of individual credit card accounts from several different card issuers with associated credit bureau data we estimate both marginal propensities to consume mpcs out of liquidity and interest rate elasticities we also evaluate the ability of different models of consumption to rationalize our results distinguishing the permanent income hypothesis pih liquidity constraints precautionary saving and behavioral models we find that increases in credit limits generate an immediate and significant rise in debt counter to the pih the average mpc out of liquidity ddebt dlimit ranges between 10 14 the mpc is much larger for people starting near their limits consistent with binding liquidity constraints however the mpc is significant even for people starting well below their limit we show this response is consistent with buffer stock models of precautionary saving nonetheless there are other results that conventional models cannot easily explain e g why so many people are borrowing on their credit cards and simultaneously holding low yielding assets unlike most other studies we also find strong effects from changes in account specific interest rates the long run elasticity of debt to the interest rate is approximately 1 3 less than half of this elasticity represents balance shifting across cards with most reflecting net changes in total borrowing the elasticity is larger for decreases in interest rates than for increases which can explain the widespread use of temporary promotional rates the elasticity is smaller for people starting near their credit limits again consistent with liquidity constraints

public versus private provision of liquidity is there a trade off abstract to what extent is public debt private liquidity much policy advice given in the aftermath of the financial crisis rests on the assumption that increasing public debt relaxes borrowing constraints of private households this is the case for ad hoc debt limits which are exogenous to public policy instead if debt limits are fully endogenous as e g in the case of the natural borrowing limit public debt has no impact we assume that borrowing limits arise because of limited contract enforceability and are therefore determined as equilibrium outcomes using an incomplete markets economy in which households are subject to uninsurable earnings shocks we show that public debt provides some liquidity but less so than it would if constraints were imposed ad hoc we show that generating borrowing constraints as an equilibrium outcome substantially alters the answers to other important questions such as for the welfare effects of government debt or its impact on real economic activity

consumption liquidity constraints and asset accumulation in the presence of random income fluctuations recent empirical research flavin 1981 hagashi 1982 has rejected the certainty equivalent formulation of permanent income hypothesis hall 1978 these findings are often attributed to households inability to borrow completely against expected future labor income this paper is a theoretical investigation of optimal consumption behavior under risk aversion random income fluctuations and borrowing restrictions our principle objective is to establish the existence and to investigate the properties of the stationary probability distribution which characterizes the asymptotic behavior of consumption under these conditions this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

the effects of financial development in the short and long run theory and evidence from india abstract although many view financial access as a means of reducing poverty or increasing growth empirical studies have produced contradictory results one problem is that most studies cover only a short time frame and do not consider dynamic effects i show that introducing credit in a general model of intertemporal consumption creates a boom in consumption and reduces poverty initially but eventually reduces mean consumption because credit substitutes for precautionary wealth using new consistent consumption data that cover a much longer time period than most studies my empirical findings show that increased access to bank branches in rural india increased consumption initially and reduced poverty but consumption later fell and poverty rose the long term effect is still positive however suggesting that credit may have a beneficial role beyond consumption smoothing

financial deepening inequality and growth a model based quantitative evaluation we propose a coherent unified approach to the study of the linkages among economic growth financial structure and inequality bringing together disparate theoretical and empirical literature that is we show how to conduct model based quantitative research on transitional paths with analytical and numerical methods we calibrate and make tractable a prototype canonical model and take it to an application namely thailand 1976 96 an emerging market economy in a phase of economic expansion with uneven financial deepening and increasing inequality we look at the expected path generated by the model and conduct robustness experiments because the actual path of the thai economy is imagined here to be just one realization of many possible histories of the model economy we construct a covariance normalized squared error metric of closeness and find the best fit simulation we also construct a confidence region from a set of simulations and formally test the model we broadly replicate the actual data and identify anomalies robert m townsend is a professor at the university of chicago and a consultant at the federal reserve bank of chicago kenichi ueda is an economist at the international monetary fund the views expressed in this paper are those of authors and do not necessarily represent those of the frb chicago the federal reserve system or the imf we thank the national statistics office of thailand for permission to use the ses data we received helpful comments from robin brooks fabio canova marco cagetti larry christiano angus deaton paul evans jess gaspar hyeok jeong ashok mody tomoyuki nakajima hajime takizawa chris udry annette vissing jorgensen and the participants of the nber general equilibrium conference at new york university the conference honoring rolf r mantel in argentina seminars at cornell university grips hitotsubashi university ohio state university oxford university and the imf as well as the imf conference on macroeconomic policy and poverty reduction we are especially indebted to the editors and referees townsend acknowledges financial support from the nsf and nichd we thank natalia ramondo for excellent research assistance

the impact of group based credit programs on poor households in bangladesh does the gender of participants matter this paper estimates the impact of participation by gender in the grameen bank and two other group based micro credit programs in bangladesh on labor supply schooling household expenditure and assets the empirical method uses a quasi experimental survey design to correct for the bias from unobserved individual and village level heterogeneity we find that program credit has a larger effect on the behavior of poor households in bangladesh when women are the program participants for example annual household consumption expenditure increases 18 taka for every 100 additional taka borrowed by women from these credit programs compared with 11 taka for men

credit availability and internal migration evidence from thailand this study investigates the relationship between borrowing and internal migration exploiting the micro finance scheme village fund in thailand it investigates the short and medium term effects o

consumption and risk sharing over the life cycle a striking feature of u s data on income and consumption is that inequality increases with age this paper asks if individual specific earnings risk can provide a coherent explanation we find that it can we construct an overlapping generations general equilibrium model in which households face uninsurable earnings shocks over the course of their lifetimes earnings inequality is exogenous and is calibrated to match data from the u s panel study on income dynamics consumption inequality is endogenous and matches well data from the u s consumer expenditure survey the total risk households face is decomposed into that realized before entering the labor market and that realized throughout the working years in welfare terms the latter is found to be more important than the former

returns to education in india summary in india both men and women with more education live in households with greater consumption per capita yet aggregating across age cohorts and states an extra year of education brings male cohorts only 4 more consumption and provides no additional consumption for female cohorts this result is robust to 1 accounting for survey measurement error 2 different measures of household consumption and composition 3 allowing returns to differ by state and school quality and 4 age misreporting the only area with substantial returns is entering into regular wage work which still employs only a small fraction of the population

a revisit to the dependence structure between the stock and foreign exchange markets a dependence switching copula approach abstract this paper develops a dependence switching copula model to examine dependence and tail dependence for four different market statuses namely rising stocks appreciating currency falling stocks depreciating currency rising stocks depreciating currency and falling stocks appreciating currency the model is then applied to daily stock returns and exchange rate changes for six major industrial countries over the 1990 2010 period the dependence and tail dependence among the above four market statuses are asymmetric for most countries in the negative correlation regime but symmetric in the positive correlation regime these results enrich the findings in the existing literature and suggest that analyzing cross market linkages within a time invariant copula framework may not be appropriate

when do borrowing constraints bind some new results on the income fluctuation problem abstract the empirical failure of the permanent income hypothesis has prompted researchers to investigate models in which consumers are liquidity constrained as shown in deaton econometrica 59 5 1991 1221 liquidity constrained consumers might choose to exhaust their borrowing capacity from time to time yet due to technical limitations the conditions under which this behavior arises have not been investigated the present paper extends the class of solvable models in a way that allows this issue to be dealt with it turns out that under the loosest sustainable borrowing constraint the agent might systematically avoid exhausting his borrowing capacity

do rural banks matter evidence from the indian social banking experiment lack of access to finance is often cited as a key reason why poor people remain poor this paper uses data on the indian rural branch expansion program to provide empirial evidence on this issue between 1977 and 1990 the indian central bank mandated that a commercial bank can open a branch in a location with one or more bank branches only if it opens four in locations with no bank branches we show that between 1977 and 1990 this rule caused banks to open relatively more rural branches in indian states with lower initial financial development the reverse is true outside this period we exploit this fact to identify the impact of opening a rural bank on poverty and output our estimates suggest that the indian rural branch expansion program significantly lowered rural poverty and increased non agricultural output