the behavior of option price around large block transactions in the underlying security this paper investigates the behavior of stock and option prices around block trades in stocks the results indicate that for both uptick and downtick block trades the stock prices adjust within a fifteen minute period after the block trade moreover for uptick blocks there is no evidence of any stock price reaction before the block trade however the adjustment of stock price for downtick blocks begins about fifteen minutes before the block trade we also find that option price behavior differs considerably from stock price behavior specifically our results suggest that options exhibit abnormal price behavior starting thirty minutes before the block and ending one hour after the block the pattern is more pronounced for downtick blocks and for put options we interpret this abnormal price behavior of options before the block trade as consistent with intermarket frontrunning this paper compares the price effect of block transactions in the stock market with the price effect in the derivative options market the analysis is motivated by the suggestion in the literature that options provide a superior investment vehicle because of their inherent leverage and lower transaction costs and because of their ability to avoid stock market restrictions on short sales this implies that informed investors may prefer to trade in options thereby causing the option market to lead the stock market

a multi regional input output analysis of the pollution haven hypothesis from the perspective of global production fragmentation pollution haven hypothesis is an important debate on the environmental effects of international trade the pattern of which has been reshaped obviously by global production fragmentation recently the production process is distributed globally and the pollution haven effect of international trade is becoming more complicated for instance intermediate product trade corresponds to the largest share of embodied emissions and the share of emissions induced by the global value chain related trade is increasing gradually the aim of this paper is to make a comprehensive analysis on the pollution haven hypothesis in carbon emissions embodied in three different trade patterns from global bilateral and national perspectives we propose a method to parcel the pollution haven hypothesis in a multi regional input output analysis and discuss the contribution of production fragmentation for global emissions it is found that international production fragmentation generates global emissions savings the intermediate product trade has a negative balance of avoided emissions the final product trade becomes increasingly less environmentally effective during the period 1995 2009 there are significant differences in the environmental effects of different trade patterns for each country

change in co2 emission and its transmissions between korea and japan using international input output analysis abstract this paper is intended to analyze co 2 transmission between japan and south korea through international trade based on 1990 and 1995 international input output data it applied a residual free structural decomposition method proposed by chung and rhee chung h s rhee h c 2001 a residual free decomposition of the sources of carbon dioxide emissions a case of the korean industries energy 26 1 15 30 to emission related international input output analysis for the first time in the decomposition studies this paper is a case study regarding the manner and the extent to which co 2 emissions are influenced by international trade between japan an annex i country and south korea a non annex i country which is of particular interest for the carbon leakage issue in this paper we attempted to show which factors contributed to the changes in emission of the major greenhouse gas in south korea and japan the changes in emission are analyzed in terms of emission intensity input techniques demand composition and trade structures according to our analysis south korea a non annex i country has more energy intensive production structures than japan an annex i country south korea s trade pattern with japan reflects these production features resulting in the korea s comparative advantage in emission intensive products though the degree has somewhat mitigated in 1995 compared to 1990

one security many markets determining the contributions to price discovery when homogeneous or closely linked securities trade in multiple markets it is often of interest to determine where price discovery the incorporation of new information occurs this article suggests an econometric approach based on an implicit unobservable efficient price common to all markets the information share associated with a particular market is defined as the proportional contribution of that market s innovations to the innovation in the common efficient price applied to quotes for the thirty dow stocks the technique suggests that the preponderance of the price discovery takes place at the new york stock exchange nyse a median 92 7 percent information share although most of the classic paradigms in market microstructure concern a security that trades in a single centralized market such situations are becoming increasingly rare in practice fragmentation the dispersal of trading in a security to multiple sites has emerged as a dominant institutional trend this process is of concern to financial economists and regulators because price information and price discovery the impounding of new information into the security price arguably the most important products of a security market have many attributes of public goods as the process of fragmentation accelerates it may be important to determine where the price information and price discovery are being produced 1 this paper suggests a practical econometric approach to this problem the technique is illustrated with an application to u s equity markets many stocks listed on the new york stock exchange nyse trade concurrently on the regional exchanges and the national association of securities dealers national market system nasd nms since a share of ibm stock is the same security whether purchased on the midwest or pacific exchange this is a particularly clear instance of multiple markets nevertheless the expres

examining the global environmental impact of regional consumption activities part 2 review of input output models for the assessment of environmental impacts embodied in trade this paper offers a detailed review of recently described single and multi region input output models used to assess environmental impacts of internationally traded goods and services it is the second part of a two part contribution in part 1 turner k lenzen m wiedmann t and barrett j in press examining the global environmental impact of regional consumption activities part 1 a technical note on combining input output and ecological footprint analysis ecological economics we describe how to enumerate the resource and pollution content of inter regional and inter national trade flows with the aim to illustrate an ideal accounting and modelling framework for the estimation of ecological footprints a large number of such environment economic models have been described but only in the last few years models have emerged that use a more sophisticated multi region multi sector input output framework this has been made possible through improvements in data availability and quality as well as computability we identify six major models that employ multi sector multi region input output analysis in order to calculate environmental impacts embodied in international trade results from the reviewed studies demonstrate that it is important to explicitly consider the production recipe land and energy use as well as emissions in a multi region multi sector and multi directional trade model with global coverage and detailed sector disaggregation only then reliable figures for indicators of impacts embodied in trade such as the ecological footprint can be derived

put call parity and expected returns this study examines the hypothesis that in the presence of market frictions relative put and call prices contain information concerning future returns of the underlying asset a measure of relative prices is derived from the put call parity relationship for index options and applied to a three year sample of oex option transactions the results show that the measure of relative index option prices leads the stock market by at least 15 minutes

the interrelation of stock and options market trading volume data this research empirically investigates the relation between common stock and call option trading volumes the paper hyothesizes and tests a sequential flow of information between the stock and option markets if information trading for cboe listed firms is predominantly accomplished through option trading then existing research methodologies may be biased against finding any significant economic consequences in those instances where option listing is an important variable results indicate that trading in call options leads trading in the underlying shares with a one day lag black 2 suggests that information traders may prefer trading in options rather than shares due to economic incentives provided by reduced transaction costs capital requirements and trading restrictions and due to the greater action afforded by option trading manaster and rendleman 12 empirically support black s 2 option information trading preference finding incremental information content in option prices up to twenty four hours prior to its reflection in stock prices jennings and starks 10 report that the stock price adjustment process upon arrival of new information differs for those firms listed on the chicago board option exchange cboe and they demonstrate that stock price adjustment to new information occurs more rapidly for firms with listed call options the results in both papers appear to warrant consideration of an optiontrading variable in the design of empirical tests both manaster and rendleman 12 and jennings and starks 10 investigate the price relation between shares and call options this paper investigates trading volume copeland 4 posits the use of trading volume as a proxy for the rate of information arrival he concludes that the relation between absolute value of price changes and volume is positive and linear if one accepts a sequentialinformation arrival hypothesis as valid the present research hypothesizes and tests a sequential flow of information between the stock and option markets analyses presented are based on econometric tests for causality1 derived from the works of granger 6 and sims 22 if information trading takes place

responsibility and trade emission balances an evaluation of approaches this paper compares two concepts to evaluate the international responsibility of a country with respect to its emissions using a multi regional input output model we show that the trade emission balance and the responsibility emission balance yield the same result in practical work however a lack of data availability implies that the same technology assumption has been commonly adopted in that case also a third alternative exists which simply evaluates the emissions embodied in the trade balance of the country this third alternative yields the same results as the other two approaches at the aggregate level at the level of individual products however the results are clearly different and it turns out that the third alternative answers a different question that is it is appropriate for measuring the emission content of the products that cross the border in our empirical application we consider spain in 1995 and 2000 distinguishing nine different gases co 2 ch 4 n 2 o sf 6 hfcs pfcs so 2 nox and nh 3 c 2010 elsevier b v all rights reserved

option prices as predictors of equilibrium stock prices the black scholes option pricing model modified for dividend payments is used to calculate jointly implied stock prices and implied standard deviations a comparison of the implied stock prices with observed stock prices reveals that the implied prices contain information regarding equilibrium stock prices that is not fully reflected in observed stock prices the implications of this finding are discussed this study investigates the role of call option prices as predictors of the equilibrium prices of their underlying stocks using the black scholes 3 bs model previous tests of the bs model have shown that the formula is highly successful in explaining the observed market prices of options see black and scholes 2 galai 8 chiras and manaster 6 and macbeth and merville 12 according to the model the option price is a function of the current value of the underlying stock the instantaneous variance of the stock s rate of return the time to maturity of the option the risk free rate of interest and the exercise price of the option 1 given an observed option price and known values of all input parameters to the bs model except the stock price one can determine the price of the underlying stock that equates the observed option price to its calculated value it follows from the underlying logic of the model that the implied price is the value of the underlying stock for which a continuously revised option bond portfolio would be a perfect substitute for the stock hence if options are actually priced according to the model implied stock prices will be the option market s assessment of equilibrium stock values previous empirical studies have assumed that observed stock prices are the relevant stock prices for option valuation however just as stock prices may differ in the short run from one exchange to another i e nyse midwest

shared producer and consumer responsibility theory and practice abstract over the past decade an increasing number of authors have been examining the nexus of producer versus consumer responsibility often dealing with the question of how to assign responsibility for internationally traded greenhouse gas emissions recently a similar problem has appeared in drafting the standards for the ecological footprint while the method traditionally assumes a full life cycle perspective with full consumer responsibility a large number of producers businesses and industry sectors have started to calculate their own footprints see www isa org usyd edu au adding any producer s footprint to other producers footprints or to population footprints which all already cover the full upstream supply chain of their operating inputs leads to double counting the sum of footprints of producers and consumers is larger than the total national footprint the committee in charge of the footprint standardisation process was hence faced with the decades old non additivity problem posing the following dilemma for the accounting of footprints or any other production factor if one disallows double counting but wishes to be able to account for producers and consumers then one cannot impose the requirement of full life cycle coverage the supply chains of actors have to be curtailed somehow in order to avoid double counting this work demonstrates and discusses a non arbitrary method of consistently delineating these supply chains into mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive portions of responsibility to be shared by all actors in an economy

potential biases from using only trade prices of related securities on different exchanges a comment equilibrium prices of the underlying stocks using daily trade prices this paper points out that a bias associated with the bid ask spread and nonsynchronous trading may create the impression that option prices contain information not reflected in the contemporaneous stock prices even during times when the two prices are in equilibrium the mr methodology is described in section i and the potential biases arising due to the bid ask bounce and the non synchroneity of stock and option prices are illustrated in section ii following an observation in their paper that the stock prices implied by the option prices are smaller than the corresponding stock prices only thirty seven percent of the time section iii looks at the distribution of trade prices relative to the last quoted bid ask prices for both stocks and options many more during the day option trades occur at the ask than at the bid whereas the distribution is approximately symmetric for stocks a likely implication is that the option trade prices and therefore the implied stock prices are upward biased estimates of the corresponding true prices this bias increases at day end for both stocks and options

the interaction between trading volume of stocks and options some statistical evidence abstract the finance literature provides several examples of research into the interaction between stock and option prices this paper examines the feedback hypothesis for trading volume on the amsterdam stock and options markets using a generalized granger sims framework the most important finding of this paper is that very often causality runs from options trade to the stock market which seems to support the feeling of the business profession and the main hypothesis of this paper statistically it is interesting that the results indicate very convincingly that the relations reveal no stability over time jel c13 c52

international trade and environmental quality a survey abstract international trade has been incorporating various aspects of environmental issues since 1970 the extent to which environmental problems might affect many facets of trade or vice versa has been the subject of considerable debate over these years in this article we have attempted to establish some of the links between international trade and environmental quality by performing a comprehensive literature review we discuss issues such as establishing direct and indirect effects of international trade on environmental quality effects of trade on economic development environmental quality and energy and their relation with each other and finally the role of governments and international organizations in this context studies have so far revealed some linkages between trade and environment through conventional trade theory however interactions between international trade and types of pollution their sink and assimilative capacity need to be analyzed using a general equilibrium approach currently very little knowledge and agreement on the nature of interactions between trade theories development process and environmental quality exist existing studies have shown that the structure of environmental regulations should be modified to reflect the existence of trade under imperfect competition therefore further research on the interaction between new trade theory and environmental regulation is needed also theoretical and quantitative analysis regarding the effects of environmental regulations on competitiveness and location decision is needed the intensity and type of environmental measures vary across issues and countries therefore harmonizing environmental measures creates an inefficient atmosphere and to assume that trade restrictions will either improve or reverse the environmental damages is a serious mistake given the dynamic and intricate nature of the problem trade and environment debate continues despite vast research and poses a challenge for researchers and policy makers in the foreseeable future

from production based to consumption based national emission inventories abstract under the united national framework convention of climate change unfccc countries are required to submit national emission inventories nei to benchmark reductions in greenhouse gas ghg emissions depending on the definition and system boundary of the nei the mitigation options and priorities may vary the territorial system boundary used by the unfccc has been critiqued for not including international transportation and potentially causing carbon leakage to address these issues past literature has argued in favour of using consumption based nei in climate policy this article discusses several issues in moving from the standard production based nei to consumption based nei first two distinct accounting approaches for constructing consumption based nei are presented the approaches differ in the allocation of intermediate consumption of imported products second a consistent method of weighting production based and consumption based nei is discussed this is an extension of the previous literature on shared responsibility to nei third due to increased uncertainty and a wide system boundary it may be difficult to implement consumption based nei directly into climate policy several alternative options for incorporating consumption based inventories into climate policy are discussed

household saving micro theories and micro facts in this survey we review the recent theoretical and empirical literature on household saving and consumption the discussion is structured around a list of motives for saving and how well the standard theory captures these motives we show that almost all of the motives for saving that have been suggested in the informal saving literature can be captured in the standard optimizing model particular attention is given to recent work on the precautionary motive and its implications for saving and consumption behavior we also discuss the behavioral or psychological approach that eschews the use of standard optimization techniques and focuses instead on direct consideration on saving we provide a section on facts who save and how much we then discuss informally the recent decline in the u s saving rate and whether the theory is of much use in understanding this and other changes in aggregate saving rates over time we do not find any convincing explanation for the change in saving rates we also discuss some analyses of saving behavior over the life cycle addressing such questions as whether households save enough for retirement and whether the consumption patterns of older households can be rationalized within a simple life cycle model we also review a great number of studies of the consumption euler equations based on our analysis of the studies cited we conclude that there is still mixed evidence that consumption is excessively sensitive to income we also examine in depth the recent empirical literature on the precautionary motive we conclude that although some households do seem to have a significant precautionary motive at some points in their life cycle this motive is not so strong empirically as some investigators suggest

using option prices to estimate realignment probabilities in the european monetary system the case of sterling mark abstract this paper describes a procedure for estimating the market s perceived probability distribution of future exchange rates from the prices of risk reversals strangles and other currency options and uses the procedure to estimate the risk neutral ex ante probability of a realignment of the pound sterling the procedure for estimating the realignment probabilities relies on the jump diffusion model of exchange rate behavior and the resulting option pricing formula by fitting this model to market option price data i retrieve the unobserved parameters of the jump diffusion process i then use these parameter estimates to estimate the ex ante probability distribution of exchange rates and thus the realignment probabilities

linking namea and input output for consumption vs production perspective analyses evidence on emission efficiency and aggregation biases using the italian and spanish environmental accounts we integrate input output and namea tables for spain and italy in 1995 2000 and 2005 in order to address the hot policy issue of sustainable consumption and production a comparison of production and consumption perspectives may have relevant policy implications we deal with the domestic technology assumption and primarily the aggregation bias that may result when calculating indirect emission using different sector aggregations in the analyses e g 16 30 50 extended input output analysis provides analyses of the emissions embodied in domestic consumption and domestic production by considering the structure of intermediate inputs and environmental efficiency in each production sector our empirical findings show that different sectoral aggregation significantly biases the amount of emissions for the consumption perspective though differently in the two countries italy surprisingly show consumption production ratios around or lower than one but in line with some major work at eu level our results thus suggest that special attention must be paid when interpreting the ee ioa of country estimated amounts of embodied emissions both in domestic final demand and those directly associated with the production sectors when the sectoral aggregation level has a low definition as considered in some recent similar studies

casting a long shadow demand based accounting of canada s greenhouse gas emissions responsibility abstract canada is the only country to have ratified the kyoto protocol and then withdrawn part of the justification for canada s reluctance to commit to greenhouse gas ghg emissions reductions is the country s status as fossil fuel exporter in this paper we use input output analysis and the world input output database wiod to ask whether canada s contribution to global ghg emissions changes when calculated using a demand based shadow emission approach that excludes ghg emissions created in the production of exports like fossil fuels but includes emissions released to produce imports to canada we find that from 1995 to 2005 canada s contribution to global emissions was lower using this demand based ghg accounting approach than a production based approach from 2006 to 2009 however increased imports from ghg intensive trading partners like china meant that canada s demand based shadow emissions were higher than its production based ghg emissions we also introduce a method of calculating sub national ghg shadows using limited data applied to canada this exercise demonstrates that fossil fuel exporting provinces such as alberta and saskatchewan have demand based shadow emissions significantly lower than their production based emissions while populous provinces such as quebec and ontario have demand based emissions that are relatively higher than their production based emissions

a structural decomposition analysis of the emissions embodied in trade abstract the aim of this study is to quantify the driving forces behind the growth of carbon dioxide emissions embodied in trade eet the world input output database is used to estimate eet in 40 countries during 1995 2007 after which a structural decomposition analysis is applied to avoid biases in the results we have used the input output tables in previous year s prices and chained the outcomes in many developed countries the growth of emissions embodied in imports is much higher than the growth of emissions embodied in exports a key reason for this finding is the change in the structure of trade both in intermediate and in final products emerging economies like the bric countries have increased their share in production and trade at the expense of developed countries producers and consumers in developed countries have shifted towards importing a larger share of products from emerging countries this is the distinguishing feature that led to an increase of emissions embodied in imports for developed countries and an increase of emissions embodied in exports for emerging countries these results suggest policy makers to monitor eet more carefully and take the effects of trade on emissions into consideration

option volume and stock prices evidence on where informed traders trade this paper investigates the informational role of transactions volume in options markets we develop an asymmetric information model in which informed traders may trade in option or equity markets we show conditions under which informed traders trade options and we investigate the implications of this for the linkage between markets our model predicts an important informational role for the volume of particular types of option trades we empirically test our model s hypotheses with intraday option data our main empirical result is that negative and positive option volumes contain information about future stock prices the information content of trading activity is a subject of widespread interest if trades are correlated with private information then the outcome of the transaction process may portend future movements in price the extension of trading to different venues or to derivative instruments however means that this link between transactions and information need not be easily discernible if there are alternative markets in which informed traders can profit from their information then where informed traders choose to trade may have important implications not only for security p rice movements but for the behavior of related prices as well this suggests that transactions in derivative markets may be an important predictor of future security price movements in this paper we investigate the informational role of transactions volume in options markets for some readers this focus may seem puzzling an option is a derivative security so its price should be dictated unilaterally by the behavior of the stock price this unidirectional linkage is only true however in complete markets if information is impounded into prices by trading then the ability of informed traders to transact in options markets mearns

does ecological economics have a future contradiction and reinvention in the age of climate change abstract this paper addresses the role of neoclassical methodologies in ecological economics and the contradictions these methodologies pose to the field s critical founding principles we first consider robert costanza s treatment of nicholas stern s global deal and then survey climate change related articles published in this journal over the past five years this survey reveals how mainstream neoclassical methodologies dominate discourse and do so by marginalizing more critical political economy analyses this situation imperils the field s founding vision of a no growth steady state it also fails to address the related growth dynamics of capitalism without such a critical treatment the field s formal embrace of methodological pluralism actually entails an ideological empiricism that renders ecological economics theoretically incoherent this situation undermines the field s historical promise as an alternative economic paradigm ecological economics now faces a problematic future its survival in a form faithful to its founding vision will require an explicit choice to address its internal contradictions and reinvent itself in ways relevant to our contemporary context without such a choice ecological economics will likely succumb to an implicit acceptance of the hegemony of mainstream economic methodologies and their pro growth imperatives

new methodology for the ecological footprint with an application to the new zealand economy abstract sustainable development has become a primary objective for many countries throughout the world since the late 1980s a major difficulty associated with sustainable development objectives however is the absence of reliable indicators to measure progress towards the goal of sustainability the ecological footprint provides an estimate of the land area necessary to sustain current levels of resource consumption for a given population on an aggregate basis the ecological footprint may be compared with the amount of ecologically productive land available to give an indication of whether consumption patterns are likely to be sustainable this paper proposes the use of a modified form of input output analysis to calculate the ecological footprint the input output approach provides a consistent means of calculating an ecological footprint using data collected as part of the system of national accounts in most developed countries in addition it makes explicit the link between the level of economic activity in a country and its corresponding impact on the environment an application of this methodology to new zealand indicates that it takes 3 49 has of ecologically productive land per year to sustain the average new zealander s current level of consumption

why option prices lag stock prices a trading based explanation while many studies find that option prices lead stock prices stephan and wvhaley 1990 find that stocks lead options we find no evidence that options even deep out of the money options lead stocks after confirming stephan and whaley s results we show their results can be explained as spurious leads induced by infrequent trading of options we show that the stock lead disappears when the average of the bid and ask prices is used instead of transaction prices hence we find no evidence of arbitrage opportunities associated with the stock lead in a perfect market price discrepancies should be instantly arbitraged away in particular option prices should neither lead nor lag stock prices in real markets only very short leads should occur traders with private information who are confident that their information is valid and that they will not be detected generally want highly leveraged positions to exploit their advantage thus we might expect options with their greater leverage to lead stocks if information trading is important manaster and rendleman 1982 bhattacharya 1987 and anthony 1988 find evidence that options

option listing and the stock price response to earnings announcements abstract we examine the effect of option listing on the immediate stock price response to earnings announcements contrary to prior studies using earlier data we find firms initiating option trading after 1986 fail to exhibit a significant decline in earnings response we then examine 420 firms initiating option trading during 1973 1993 in a series of tests controlling for market wide effects and changing firm size we find some evidence that option listing may actually increase the stock price response to earnings but no evidence listing reduces the response both longitudinal and cross sectional tests produce similar results

predicting currency return volatility abstract standard deviations and elasticity of variance coefficients implied in currency option prices are employed to predict subsequent currency return volatility despite documented variance non stationarity strong predictive relationships are found the predictive accuracies of standard deviations and elasticity coefficients are statistically indistinguishable finally predictive accuracy is invariant to the weighting techniques employed

earnings announcements stock price adjustment and the existence of option markets this paper employs a new approach to study the effects of option trading on the behavior of underlying stock prices extant research compares distributional properties of the stock price at two points in time divided by an event in the option market that might affect price behavior as an alternative we examine the stock price adjustment to the release of quarterly earnings using samples of firms with and without listed options we find the two samples exhibit different adjustment processes with the nonoption firms requiring substantially more time to adjust since the advent of organized stock option trading the investment community

allocating ecological footprints to final consumption categories with input output analysis we present and discuss a method that allows the disaggregation of national ecological footprints by economic sector detailed final demand category sub national area or socio economic group this is done by combining existing national footprint accounts with input output analysis calculations in the empirical part are carried out by using supply and use tables for the united kingdom covering the reporting period 2000 ecological footprints are allocated to detailed household consumption activities following the coicop classification system and to a detailed breakdown of capital investment the method presented enables the calculation of comparable ecological footprints on all sub national levels and for different socio economic groups the novelty of the approach lies in the use of input output analysis to re allocate existing footprint accounts in the detail of disaggregation by consumption category and in the expanded use of household expenditure data this extends the potential for applications of the ecological footprint concept and helps to inform scenarios policies and strategies on sustainable consumption the method described in this paper can be applied to every country for which a national footprint account exists and where appropriate economic and environmental accounts are available the approach helps to save time in data collection and improves the consistency between ecological footprint estimates for a particular human society from different researchers for these reasons the suggested methodology includes crucial steps on the way towards a standardisation of ecological footprint accounts

is there price discovery in equity options abstract we use tick by tick quote data for 39 liquid us stocks and options on them and we focus on events when the two markets disagree about the stock price in the sense that the option implied stock price obtained from the put call parity relation is inconsistent with the actual stock price option market quotes adjust to eliminate the disagreement while the stock market quotes behave normally as if there were no disagreement the disagreement events are typically precipitated by stock price movements and display signed option volume in the direction that tends to eliminate the disagreements these results show that option price quotes do not contain economically significant information about future stock prices beyond what is already reflected in current stock prices i e no economically significant price discovery occurs in the option market we also find no option market price discovery using a much larger sample of disagreement events based on a weaker definition of a disagreement which verifies that the findings for the primary sample are not due to unusual or unrepresentative market behavior during the put call parity violations

the informational role of stock and option volume this article analyzes the intraday interdependence of order flows and price movements for actively traded nyse stocks and their chicago board options exchange cboe traded options stock net trade volume buyer initiated volume minus seller initiated volume has strong predictive ability for stock and option quote revisions but option net trade volume has no incremental predictive ability this suggests that informed investors initiate trades in the stock market but not in the option market on the other hand both stock and option quote revisions have predictive ability for each other thus while information in the stock market is contained in both quote revisions and trades information in the option market is contained only in quote revisions copyright 2002 oxford university press

income growth and atmospheric pollution in spain an input output approach abstract the relationships between economic growth and environmental pressures are complex since the early nineties the debate on these relationships has been strongly influenced by the environmental kuznets curve hypothesis which states that during the first stage of economic development environmental pressures increase as per capita income increases but once a critical turning point has been reached these pressures diminish as income levels continue to increase however to date such a delinking between economic growth and emission levels has not happened for most atmospheric pollutants in spain the aim of this paper is to analyse the relationship between income growth and nine atmospheric pollutants in spain in order to obtain empirical outcomes for this analysis we adopt an input output approach and use namea data for the nine pollutants first we undertake a structural decomposition analysis for the period 1995 2000 to estimate the contribution of various factors to changes in the levels of atmospheric emissions and second we estimate the emissions associated with the consumption patterns of different groups of households classified according to their level of expenditure

the valuation of american call options and the expected ex dividend stock price decline abstract this study focuses on the ex dividend stock price decline implicit within the valuation of american call options on dividend paying stocks the roll 1977 american call option pricing formula and the observed structure of cboe call option transaction prices are used to infer the expected ex dividend stock price decline as a proportion of the amount of the dividend the relative decline is shown to be not meaningfully different from one confirming some recent evidence from studies which examined stock prices in the days surrounding ex dividend

stock and option market divergence in the presence of noisy information we examine market behavior of the stock and option markets upon the arrival of noisy information in the form of cnbc s mad money recommendations if stock and option markets are not equally efficient they should respond differently to noisy information with the less efficient market more susceptible to noise we find that the stock market is less efficient than the option market the abnormal difference between option implied and actual stock returns is negative and significant upon exposure to noisy information this difference may yield an economically significant monthly trading profit of up to 5 we conclude that the stock market is more susceptible to noisy information than the option market and is therefore less efficient published by elsevier b v

consumer and producer environmental responsibility comparing two approaches abstract two different indicators of environmental responsibility were independently proposed by rodrigues et al rodrigues j domingos t giljum s schneider f 2006 designing an indicator of environmental responsibility ecological economics 59 3 256 266 and lenzen et al lenzen m murray j sack f wiedmann t 2007 shared producer and consumer responsibility theory and practice ecological economics 61 27 42 these indicators are both supposed to reflect the indirect effects of consumer and producer behavior in the generation of environmental pressure in this paper we compare their mathematical properties and interpretation we conclude that they have different implications for environmental policy

does ecologically unequal exchange occur the hypothesis of ecologically unequal exchange posits that low and middle income developing nations maintain an ecological deficit with wealthy developed nations exporting natural resources and high impact commodities thereby allowing wealthy economies to avoid operating ecologically impactful industries at home in this survey we assess the footprint of consumption of 187 countries using eight indicators of environmental pressure in order to determine whether or not this phenomenon occurs we use input output analysis with a new high resolution global multi region input output table to calculate each trading pair s balance of trade in biophysical terms of ghg emissions embodied water and scarcity weighted water content air pollution threatened species human appropriated net primary productivity total material flow and ecological footprint we test three hypotheses that should be true if ecologically unequal exchange occurs one the inter regional balance of trade in biophysical terms is disproportional to the balance of trade in financial terms we find this is true though not strongly so two exports from developing nations are more ecologically intensive than those from developed nations we find this is true three high income nations disproportionately exert ecological impacts in lower income nations we find this is false high income nations are mostly exporters not importers of biophysical resources

specification and aggregation errors in environmentally extended input output models this article considers the specification and aggregation errors that arise from estimating embodied text co 2 emissions and embodied water use with environmentally extended national input output io models instead of with an environmentally extended international io model model specification errors result from the use of domestic environmental and domestic technology coefficients to estimate emissions or resources that are embodied in international trade for text co 2 footprints unacceptably large overestimations arise from using domestic emission coefficients which are only partly canceled out by using domestic technology coefficients for water use footprints both specification errors are smaller but hardly cancel out sectoral aggregation errors occur when combining the 129 exiopol industries to 59 eu industries and 10 broad sectors the latter aggregation creates the largest errors spatial aggregation errors arise from combining 43 individual exiopol countries in four broad regions and the rest of the world substantial unacceptable errors occur again now especially in relation to water use

implied spot rates as predictors of currency returns a note currency call option transactions data and the black scholes option pricing model as modified by merton for continuous dividends and as adapted to currency options by biger and hull and by garman and kohlhagen are used to imply spot foreign exchange rates the proportional deviation between implied and simultaneously observed spot rates is found to be a direct and statistically significant determinant of subsequent returns on foreign currency holdings after controlling for interest rate differentials further an ex ante trading rule reveals that the additional information contained in implied rates often is sufficient to generate significant economic profits manaster and rendleman 18 in a recent study of the informational efficiency of the u s stock market investigate the ability of call option prices to predict through implied stock prices the equilibrium values of their underlying common stocks in an ex post test manaster and rendleman find that closing option prices contain information beyond that reflected in closing stock prices due to data synchronization problems however these authors are unable to distinguish whether these results reflect superior or simply more recent information in an ex ante test manaster and rendleman are unable to reject the null hypothesis of no additional information content in implied stock prices bhattacharya 1 employing synchronized transactions data finds that option prices possess information not contained in contemporaneous stock prices although it is not clear whether the value of this information exceeds associated trading costs jennings and starks 15 provide evidence supporting the stock options market s role in determining equilibrium stock prices specifically jennings and starks examine stock price adjustments to quarterly earnings announcements using samples of firms with and without listed options and find that nonoption firms require substantially more time to adjust similar to stock options the possibility exists that foreign currency options contain information beyond that represented in their underlying market spot exchange rates this study extends the manaster and rendleman methodology to call options on foreign exchange to investigate empirically this possibility specifically this is accomplished by testing whether daily exchange rates that are implied from currency option prices and a version of the black and scholes 3 option pricing model opm contain information that may be employed to signal profitable trading strategies in foreign exchange currency option transactions data are supplied by the philadelphia stock exchange phlx results

an empirical examination of the pollution haven hypothesis for india towards a green leontief paradox using input output analysis we examine whether india can be regarded as a pollution haven we calculate the extra co2 so2 and nox emissions induced by 1 billion rupees of additional exports this is compared with the reduction of indian pollution caused by an import increase of equal size in contrast to what the pollution haven hypothesis states for developing countries we find that india considerably gains from extra trade comparing 1996 1997 with 1991 1992 the gains have only increased indicating that india has moved further away from being a pollution haven the outcome is robust to changes in the underlying assumptions

international trade and the geographical separation between income and enabled carbon emissions abstract in this paper we study how international trade allows the geographical separation between the place where carbon emissions occur and the place where income from those emissions is derived we do so by studying the carbon emissions enabled by the primary inputs of products downstream along the production chain we find that 18 of global carbon emissions are enabled abroad and that developed economies fossil fuel exporters and asia account for 80 of the downstream emissions enabled by international trade both developed economies and fossil fuel exporters exhibit a positive trade balance of enabled emissions while for asia the opposite is true developed economies and fossil fuel exporters enable emissions mainly through the export of manufactured products 690 mt and fossil fuels 684 mt respectively while asia exhibits an outflow of enabled emissions through the import of fossil fuels 209 mt the measurement of enabled emissions allows the understanding of how a region s income is derived from carbon emissions occurring abroad

options taxes and ex dividend day behavior a novel way of estimating the expected as opposed to the actual share price fall off is developed using option prices this method is applied to the uk traded options market using data from 1979 to 1984 the results show that a the average expected fall off implicit in option prices is around 55 to 60 of the dividend and significantly different from it the fall off also varied inversely with the dividend yield which is consistent with the prediction of the tax clientele hypothesis b the estimates of the expected fall off were not significantly different from the actual fall off c finally the results imply that the usual assumption made in valuing options on dividend paying stocks that the fall off is equal to the dividend would lead to downward biased estimates of the option value

co2 emissions per value added in exports of china a comparison with usa based on generalized logarithmic mean divisia index decomposition abstract this study first analyzes co 2 emissions per value added epv in exports of china during 1995 2009 and compares it with that of usa second a generalized logarithmic mean divisia index glmdi method is proposed to decompose the epv gaps between china and usa into five effects this method generalizes existing lmdi methods and makes the multiplicative decomposition of a sum of several terms possible then attribution analysis on value added coefficient effect is conducted results show that aggregate epv of china s exports is 4 20 mt billion us dollars in 1995 which decreases to 2 48 in 2009 for usa it is 0 66 0 33 respectively epv of china s exports is several times greater than that of usa at sectoral level industrial sectors and transport sectors are top sectors with large epv in china s exports which corresponds to the case of usa epv gaps of the service sectors between china and usa have become increasingly prominent since 2000 decomposition results show that emission coefficients value added coefficients and input output structure are the main driving factors of the expanding epv gaps between china and usa attribution analysis on value added coefficient effect the fastest growing effect shows that electrical and optical sector has been the largest contributor to epv gaps between china and usa resulting from value added coefficient effect since 1998 and its effect sharply increases during 1995 2009 policy implications derived are finally discussed

global warming agreements international trade and energy carbon embodiments an input output approach to the italian case abstract in the kyoto protocol the absence of green house gases ghgs commitments of developing countries non annex i and the more flexible terms of implementation which are allowed to countries shifting toward a market economy transition economies naturally lead to the absence or to less constraining national measures and policies of reduction of the ghgs emissions which in turn may determine a comparative advantage in the production of the highest energy carbon intensive commodities for these countries these arguments are valid also considering the future implementation of the european emission allowance trading scheme eats thus developing countries may become a haven for the production of not environmental friendly commodities in this case the so called pollution haven hypothesis stating that due to freer international trade the comparative advantage may change the economic structure and consequently the trade patterns of the countries linked by trade relationships could occur this would lead to the increase of the transfers of energy and carbon embodied in traded commodities from developing countries and transition economies toward kyoto or eats constrained countries the aim of this paper is to verify if for italy as a kyoto and eats complying country evidence of a change in the trade patterns occurred on the basis of the pollution haven hypothesis does exist and to estimate the magnitude of the under estimation of the carbon actually emitted the carbon leakage the input output model has been used to calculate the intensities of energy consumption and the related green house gases emission for each italian economic sector

the changing of the relationships between carbon footprints and final demand panel data evidence for 40 major countries abstract global warming and environmental pollution have led many countries to begin to implement measures to reduce the use of fossil fuels however emissions reductions may have been reached because of the displacement of emissions intensive production the objective of this study is to analyze the relationships between the emissions caused by countries from a demand point of view the carbon footprints and the demand for goods and services in these countries and especially in the european countries with this aim a two step process was carried out firstly carbon footprints were calculated during the 1995 2009 period secondly the ekc hypothesis between these carbon footprints and the total final demands were tested by using panel data and a multilevel mixed effects model the results show that the ekc hypothesis is not supported when considering carbon footprints with respect to final demand it is also shown that carbon footprints are slightly increasing with respect to final demand beyond proportionality the carbon footprint elasticities are different between countries their values increasing with the final demand per capita of countries

short sales and speed of price adjustment evidence from the hong kong stock market abstract we present empirical evidence that short sales contribute to market efficiency by increasing the speed of price adjustment to not only private public firm specific information but also market wide information shortable stocks are characterized by weaker trade continuity and stronger quote reversals they adjust faster to new information than non shortable counterparts these findings remain robust even in an up market condition in which short sales are not binding the amount of information incorporated in each trade is also significantly higher for shortable than non shortable stocks in both up and down market conditions after controlling for firm size trading volume liquidity price and option trading short sales stand out as one of the significant factors that speed up the price adjustment

information trade and derivative securities hellwig s 1980 model is used to analyze the value of improving trading opportunities by more frequent trading in the underlying asset or by trading in a derivative asset with multiple trading sessions uninformed investors behave as rational trend followers while more informed investors follow a contrarian strategy as trading becomes continuous pareto efficiency is achieved with trading in an appropriate derivative security pareto efficiency may be achieved in only a single round of trading all derivative claims are then priced on black and scholes 1973 principles and in the absence of further supply shocks no trading will take place in subsequent trading rounds article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

slow diffusion of information and price momentum in stocks evidence from options markets this paper investigates the source of price momentum in the stock market using information from options markets we provide direct evidence of the gradual information diffusion model in hong and stein 1999 momentum profits are larger for stocks whose information diffuses slowly into the stock market we exploit the options markets to identify stocks with slow information diffusion speed as informed traders trade options to realize the information that has not been fully incorporated in the stock price we are able to enhance the momentum strategy by selecting winner loser stocks with high growth large drop in call option implied volatility our empirical strategy generates a risk adjusted alpha of 1 8 per month over the 1996 2011 period during which the simple momentum strategy fails to perform the results are robust to the impact of earnings announcement transaction costs industry concentration and choice of options moneyness and time to maturity finally our finding is not driven by existing stock or option related characteristics that are known to improve momentum

temporal change of china s pollution terms of trade and its determinants abstract based on the world input output database wiod this study employed a revised pollution terms of trade ptt indicator to investigate the temporal change of china s environmental cost relative to its economic gains from international trade from 1995 to 2009 the results show that china has ptt larger than 1 indicating that china emits more emissions to obtain each unit of value added from exports than its trade partners over the period china s ptt first decreased from 1995 to 2001 and then increased from 2001 to 2009 the further decompositions show that improving technology is the leading driving force to decrease ptt while the change in global trade pattern is the leading force increasing ptt especially after 2001 we further decomposed the temporal change of china s ptt by income group of the trading partners the results show that the change in the global trade pattern is the crucial driving force behind the different changes of ptt by income group

trade from resource rich countries avoids the existence of a global pollution haven hypothesis abstract free trade agreements are currently receiving much attention in the media and politics one important question concerning free trade is its effect on the environment for example in carbon dioxide emissions the goal of this paper is to provide evidence on the validity of the pollution haven hypothesis using a multi regional input output approach for six regions and the rest of the world as a whole our findings indicate that in the period from 1995 to 2009 international trade has allowed the global economy to reduce its overall co2 emissions compared to a hypothetical situation without international trade the total amount of emissions saved was 15 06 gt in the period under consideration however not all of the seven regions in our model have been able to reduce their co2 emissions through trade global value chains have led to china becoming a pollution haven for other regions and its exports have increased world emissions to 1 28 gt co2 in 2008 however what allows a net saving of emissions on a global scale is the supply of energy and natural resources from a set of peripheral economies which in our geographical categorization are mostly integrated in the region of the rest of the world

derivatives traders reaction to mispricing in the underlying equity this article examines trading behavior in the options market conditioned on mispricing in the underlying stock we investigate the price equilibrium between the observed equity asset and the options implied synthetic share as well as the relative divergence between the two prices we find a consistently positive relation between the level of stock mispricing and violations of the upper boundary condition using derivatives along with an increase in price divergence to control for the effect of shorting limitations on mispricing we further examine prices during the short sale ban in 2008 the results hold and in many instances are more significant during the ban period given the persistent disequilibria between the synthetic and observed stock prices we argue the results are evidence of informed trading in the derivatives market

price adjustment delays and arbitrage costs evidence from the behavior of convertible preferred prices price adjustment delays occur between in the money convertible preferred stock prices and common stock prices convertible preferred prices systematically deviate from the prices predicted from their conversion relations with common stocks the price predictability stems from price changes in the underlying common stocks leading the price changes in the convertible preferred stocks by up to nine hours cross sectionally about 70 percent of the variation in the unsigned size of the price deviations is explained by proxies for costs of arbitrage

energy and carbon embodied in the international trade of brazil an input output approach abstract all goods and services produced in an economy are directly and or indirectly associated with energy use and according to the type of fuel utilized with co2 emissions as well international trade is an important factor in shaping the industrial structure of a country and consequently in affecting a country s energy use and co2 emissions this study applies input output techniques to the brazilian economy to evaluate the total impacts of international trade on its energy use and co2 emissions a commodity by industry io model in hybrid units energy commodities in physical units and non energy commodities in monetary units is applied to the brazilian economy in 1995 results show that total energy embodied in the exports of non energy goods of brazil equals 831 pj while total carbon embodied is 13 5 mtc these amounts are larger than the relevant amounts embodied in the imports of non energy goods respectively 679 pj and 9 9 mtc these figures are better understood by contrasting them with the total energy use and the corresponding total carbon emissions of the brazilian economy in 1995 estimated by this work 6781 pj and 99 4 mtc respectively this means that international inflows and outflows of energy embodied in non energy goods are in the order of 10 and 12 of the total energy use while inflows and outflows of carbon embodied in non energy goods are approximately 10 and 14 of the corresponding total carbon emissions of the brazilian economy in 1995 the general picture is that brazil is not only a net exporter of energy 153 pj and of carbon 3 6 mtc embodied in the non energy goods internationally traded by the country in 1995 but also that each dollar earned with exports embodied 40 more energy and 56 more carbon than each dollar spent on imports these findings suggest that brazilian policy makers should be concerned about the extra impacts international trade policy may have on energy use and carbon emissions of the country

dispersion of financial analysts earnings forecasts and the option model implied standard deviations of stock returns this study examines whether the information implied by simultaneous levels of option and stock prices specifically the implied standard deviation of returns reflects other contemporaneously available information the independent contemporaneous measure considered is the observed dispersion across several financial analysts at a point in time in the forecasts of earnings per share for a given firm the results indicate that implied standard deviations clearly reflect the contemporaneous dispersion in analysts forecasts incrementally i e beyond the information contained in the historical time series of returns various tests of the black scholes option pricing model have appeared in the literature the basic formulation posits the price of a call option to be a function of the simultaneous market price of the underlying stock the instantaneous variance of the stock s rate of return the exercise price and time to maturity of the option and the risk free interest rate studies by black and scholes 2 galai 8 chiras and manaster 4 and macbeth and merville 12 used the formula to explain the observed prices of options to a successful degree in these tests all the information needed by the formula was directly observable except the instantaneous stock return variance which was measured as the time series variance of historical stock returns manaster and rendleman 14 inverted the procedure to calculate implied stock prices and implied standard deviations of stock returns simultaneously and showed that such implied prices contain information regarding equilibrium future stock prices that is not fully reflected in observed stock prices another set of studies see latane and rendleman 11 chiras and manaster 4 schmalensee and trippi 16 among others examined the properties of the implied instantaneous variance or standard deviation of stock returns that falls out of the formula when the values of all remaining variables are supplied in a test of the predictive ability of such implied standard deviations isd s chiras and manaster 4 found that for predicting future actual time series standard deviations fsd s of stock returns the isd s were superior predictors relative

examining the global environmental impact of regional consumption activities part 1 a technical note on combining input output and ecological footprint analysis in recent years there have been a number of attempts to develop a more comprehensive approach to the issue of measuring resource use and or pollution generation embodied in trade flows including contributions that combine input output techniques and ecological footprint analysis in this two part paper we describe how to enumerate the resource and or pollution content of inter regional and inter national trade flows part 1 and we present a literature review of recent methodological and empirical developments part 2 it is straightforward in principle to extend the basic input output approach to capture international trade flows however in practice problems of data availability and compatibility and of computability of extended input output matrices mean that simplifying assumptions are generally applied but with the implications of these assumptions often not made fully explicit what appears to be absent from previous applications is an account of the analytical method by which ecological footprints should ideally be estimated in an international input output accounting analysis this allows an explicit analysis of the problems that prevent the application of the full method and identification of the most appropriate short cut methods in a transparent way the objective of this paper is to provide such an account

driving forces of rapid co2 emissions growth a case of korea abstract this study aims to investigate korea s final demand structure and its impacts on co 2 emissions in order to reduce co 2 emissions and develop environmental policy directions based on the environmentally extended input output model this study adopts a two step approach 1 to estimate the embodied emissions and their intensities for 393 sectors induced by final demand and 2 to calculate the driving factors of emission growth between 2003 and 2011 and then evaluate the result by using structural decomposition analysis sda the findings of this study demonstrate that the impact of composition change in export with less embodied emission intensities tends to offset the increase in co 2 emission by the export scale growth the relatively low residential electricity price has resulted in the rapid growth of household electricity consumption and significantly contributed to emissions growth the result of sda indicates that korea s final demand behavior yielded high carbonization over the same period the findings suggest that korean government should promote exports in industries with less embedded co 2 in order to protect environments in addition emission information of each product and service should be provided for consumers to change their purchase patterns towards contributing to low carbon emissions as active players

the impact of information timeliness on the predictability of stock and futures returns an application of vector models the objective of this study is to measure the influence of the freshness of information on the ability of an investor to forecast a stock index and the stock index future the study uses data on the finnish fox index depicting price movements of the helsinki stock exchange and the fox futures index we generate a set of representative varmax models and retain the one that minimizes a weighted sum of akaike s aic criterion and the sr criterion of schwartz rissanen

information content and the speed of stock price adjustment the process by which security prices adjust to the release of new information is an area of study which has received much attention in accounting and finance in finance the main interest has been whether prices adjust in a rapid and unbiased manner to new information in accounting the focus has been more on whether different accounting disclosures have information content the study reported here combined both interests in that we investigated the speed of adjustment of releases of information which had different degrees of information content as illustrations dann mayers and rabb 1977 tested the sensitivity of a block trade trading rule to the speed of price adjustments this rule first suggested by grier and albin 1973 is based on the assumption that abnormal returns can be earned by purchasing shares at the block price and selling at that day s closing price dann mayers and rabb hereafter dmr found that unless one could purchase the stock within five minutes of the block trade the profitability of the grier and albin rule was seriously impaired they also found the market price to be an unbiased estimate of the closing price within 15 minutes of the block trade similarly hillmer and yu 1979 devised an alternative test for the speed of price adjustment based on a cumulative sum technique they illustrated the technique by testing for shifts in the parameters of the distributions of price changes and of transaction frequencies around five information events two earnings announcements and three defense

unbiased estimation of the black scholes formula abstract the black scholes model gives the price of an option as a function of the true variance rate of the underlying stock and other parameters because the true variance rate is unobservable an estimate of the variance rate is used in empirical tests but because the black scholes formula is non linear in the variance option price estimates using an estimated variance are biased even if the variance estimate itself is unbiased this paper develops an unbiased estimator of the black scholes formula from a taylor series expansion of the formula and the properties of the pdf of the estimated variance

co2 emissions embodied in china us trade input output analysis based on the emergy dollar ratio to gain insight into changes in co2 emissions embodied in china us trade an input output analysis based on the emergy dollar ratio edr is used to estimate embodied co2 emissions a structural decomposition analysis sda is employed to analyze the driving factors for changes in co2 emissions embodied in china s exports to the us during 2002 2007 the results of the input output analysis show that net export of co2 emissions increased quickly from 2002 to 2005 but decreased from 2005 to 2007 these trends are due to a reduction in total co2 emission intensity a decrease in the exchange rate and small imports of embodied co2 emissions the results of the sda demonstrate that total export volume was the largest driving factor for the increase in embodied co2 emissions during 2002 2007 followed by intermediate input structure direct co2 emissions intensity had a negative effect on changes in embodied co2 emissions the results suggest that china should establish a framework for allocating emission responsibilities enhance energy efficiency and improve intermediate input structure

how realistic is green growth sectoral level carbon intensity versus productivity abstract this study considers the potential conflict between economic growth and climate change mitigation some believe green growth is an option while others think climate goals are incompatible with growth it does so by developing a sector based approach to analyze the relation between on the one hand carbon dioxide emissions per dollar of output and on the other the growth in economic output and labor productivity this allows us to investigate whether green growth combining economic growth with environmental sustainability is feasible the analysis covers denmark germany and spain for the period 1995 2007 an important innovation of this study is that carbon intensity is calculated in two different ways 1 as direct carbon dioxide emissions from each sector which can be seen to immediately result from the processes in the respective sector and 2 as total direct plus indirect emissions by using environmentally extended input output tables and considering also indirect carbon emissions through imported goods another novelty of this study is that we calculate correlations over time between sectoral carbon intensity and a range of economic indicators sectoral total and relative output final demand value added and so called output and valued added productivity indicators and their change a main conclusion is that despite past climate policy developed under the kyoto protocol relatively clean sectors do not seem to be more productive than dirtier ones and neither show higher productivity growth sectors associated with high carbon intensity grew more in absolute terms than those with low carbon intensity the share of these sectors increased suggesting that green development requires an extremely rapid pace of decarbonization to allow for green growth or the economy as a whole to shrink green decline an important additional finding of this study is that longer term sectoral growth as expressed by a change in value added does not seem to be positively correlated with carbon intensity

a note on market expectations of risk free rates and volatilities before and after october 1987 abstract this paper examines the role of interest rates expectations in contributing to the stock market crash of october 1987 given prices of a pair of options of equal maturity on the s p100 a dividend modified black scholes option pricing model is solved for the combination of volatility and interest rate which prices both options using data for the three year period spanning the crash of october 1987 there appears to be no discernible difference between implied interest rates before and after october 1987 there is no indication in the implied rates that the market anticipated the crash the volatility of implied interest rates in our experiment is considerable we also find a marked increase in market volatility only after the crash whereas the implied volatility for the period preceding the crash is remarkably stable there appears to be a negative correlation between implied interest rates and implied market volatilities but this correlation is driven by prices observed on dates immediately following october 19 1987

the carbon content of japan us trade we analyze the greenhouse gas emissions embodied in trade between japan and the us extending the japanese government s linked japan us input output model to include carbon emission coefficients for each sector we estimate that in 1995 japan us trade reduced us industrial emissions by 14 6 million tons of co2 equivalent and increased emissions in japan by 6 7 million tons for a global savings of 7 9 million tons these quantities are less than one percent of each country s total emissions trade with the rest of the world reduced emissions by much larger amounts roughly four percent of each country s emissions the sectoral patterns of carbon intensity are strongly correlated between japan and the us in addition greater carbon intensity has a small but significantly positive effect on net exports policies that tax or otherwise regulate carbon emissions are needed to discourage this destructive route to competitiveness however the most important policy implication may be that us industry could cut its carbon emissions by more than half if it matched the environmental performance of industry in japan r 2007 elsevier ltd all rights reserved

driving factors of carbon emissions embodied in china us trade a structural decomposition analysis abstract based on the environmental multi regional input output model this study employed structural decomposition analysis to investigate the driving factors of carbon emissions embodied in china us trade over the period of 1995 2009 effective driving factors were classified into six groups and each group included both factors at home and abroad the results show that factors trade structure of intermediate products at home and export market shares of final products at home presented the largest positive impacts to increments in carbon emissions embodied in chinese exports to the us while the majority of negative impacts was generated by changes in energy intensities at home the increment in carbon emissions embodied in us exports to china was mostly contributed by total demands abroad impacts of other driving factors were much smaller at the sectoral level both positive and negative impacts of driving factors were largely limited to a few sectors e g textiles products machinery transport equipment and electrical equipment here positive impacts were mostly contributed by export market shares of final products at home and total demands abroad and negative impacts were mainly contributed by energy intensities at home policy implications deduced from the results were discussed

intraday price change and trading volume relations in the stock and stock option markets this study investigates intraday relations between price changes and trading volume of options and stocks for a sample of firms whose options traded on the cboe during the first quarter of 1986 after purging the price change series of the effects of bid ask spreads multivariate time series analysis is used to estimate the lead lag relation between the price changes in the option and stock markets the results indicate that price changes in the stock market lead the option market by as much as fifteen minutes the analysis of trading volume indicates that the stock market lead may be even longer the intense trading activity in and in fact the very existence of organized stock option markets attest to the economic benefits that these financial contracts provide reduced transaction costs and increased financial leverage are two reasons why trading in the stock option market may be more attractive than trading in the market for the underlying stock in addition these cheaper and more flexible trading opportunities attract new and differently informed investors to the marketplace the resulting increase in trading activity together with the inextricable arbitrage linkage between stock and option prices imply an increase in market efficiency this study investigates empirically the intraday price change and trading volume relations between stocks and options for a sample of firms whose options were actively traded on the chicago board options exchange during the first quarter of 1986 in particular intraday call option price changes are translated into implied stock price changes using the american call option pricing model these intraday implied stock price changes are then compared with the actual stock price changes to identify which if either market leads the other in perfectly functioning capital markets there should be complete simultaneity between the series that is new information disseminating into the marketplace should be reflected in the prices and the trading activity of both securities simultaneously institutional factors however may make the stock option market more attractive to information traders this may cause price changes and trading activity due to new information to be observed in the option market first followed by price

income based environmental responsibility abstract a strong mitigation effort is underway to reduce the levels of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions an allocation of the mitigation effort among multiple agents requires understanding which agent is responsible for what emissions according to a defined measure of carbon responsibility the metric adopted by current international climate policy is production based or territorial responsibility however other types of responsibility have been discussed in the literature namely consumption based or upstream responsibility and downstream responsibility in this paper we study the latter which is little explored in the literature we clarify the term through a novel nomenclature income based responsibility and present a case study with the quantification of income based responsibility for 112 world regions and the comparison of the results with production and consumption based responsibilities

temporal patterns in foreign exchange returns and options although the foreign exchange market is believed to be one of the most efficient financial markets in the world there is significant evidence that technical analysis is profitable in this market in this study we investigate the ability of information from the options market to supplement the commonly used information on past prices to predict temporal patterns in foreign exchange returns we find that information from the options market improves the performance of technical trading strategies strategies using information from at the money options were more consistently profitable than the most commonly used strategies based on only historical spot exchange rates past prices our results hold out of sample as well as in the late nineties a period when few sources of information have proven reliable consequently options appear to contain valuable information regarding future spot exchange rate movements

stochastic processes for interest rates and equilibrium bond prices default free bonds represent in essence money sold forward the investor gives dollars say to the government now in exchange for a contract which promises to pay with probability one a given number of dollars at maturity and possibly a stream of intermediate coupon payments prior to maturity only recently have financial economists begun to examine the pricing of those bonds in a portfolio context in that framework nominal liquidity premiums or risk premiums on long term default free bonds are attributable to uncertainty about taste technological and price level changes which may occur prior to maturity of the bonds and prior to each coupon payment if any to the extent that the investor is unable to diversify away that uncertainty there is a systematic risk attached to the marginal utility which he or she can derive from the use in consumption or investment of the dollar payoffs on the bonds in some term structure models the instantaneous or short term rate of interest denoted here as a function of time t by r t in nominal terms and r t in real terms can be taken as a sufficient statistic1 for the source of systematic uncertainty about the marginal utility of the proceeds to be derived from defaultfree bonds maturing beyond the next instant e g merton 1974 vasicek 1977 cox ingersoll and ross 1977 specific assumptions about tastes technology and utility functions lead to specific equilibrium stochastic processes for the instantaneous short term riskless rate and longer term bond prices which are modelled as functionally dependent upon maturity and that short term riskless rate if a closed form solution exists for the long term bond price as a function of maturity and the short term interest rate it will be conditional inter alia on the parameters of the stochastic process for that short term rate marsh 1981 proposed that the closed form solutions could be tested in terms of the restrictions implied cross sectionally on the parameters of the time series process for the returns or prices of longer term bonds each with a given term to maturity for an analogy outside the term structure literature think of the closed form solution given by black and scholes 1972 for the price of an option on a nondividend paying stock with lognormal price dynamics given the model the cross section of time series for the changes in prices for each of the several options written on the same stock are not unrestricted their dispersion is functionally linked to the same volatility parameter for the stock price thus the option model including

measuring emissions avoided by international trade accounting for price differences abstract net emissions avoided by trade nea are the difference between the pollution that would have been produced in a country if it had not exported any products and all the imports required to satisfy its domestic demand had been produced internally and its actual emissions the domestic technology assumption dta applied to an input output model is the appropriate method to estimate the nea the usual implementation of the dta involves that the country analyzed should produce a quantity of products equivalent to the monetary value of the imports required to satisfy its final demand i e monetary dta however due to price differences the same physical quantity of goods in different countries could have a different monetary value and the estimation of the nea would be biased we show that a physical dta focused on the pollution to produce domestically the imports measured in physical units would be a better approach we have applied both methodologies to analyze greenhouse gas emissions in spain 1995 2007 both methodologies show that spain is avoiding emissions through trade however the nea increases up to three times when applying the physical dta showing that results from the monetary dta are biased by price differences

a note on the no premature exercise condition of dividend payout unprotected american call options a clarification abstract it is shown that merlon s sufficient condition for no rational premature exercise of a dividend payout unprotected american call option is frequently misunderstood and used incorrectly in the finance literature when applied to the multiple dividend case this is especially true in papers we receive to review for journals the purpose of this note is to clarify understanding of the no premature exercise condition