coping with change a study of local irrigation institutions in taiwan abstract this paper examines how taiwan s local irrigation institutions have evolved and changed amid rapid political economic development in the last decade based upon the literatures of institutional analysis and common pool resource management i discuss and compare how local irrigation institutions in three areas in the country have responded or failed to respond to the changing environment a major finding is that local self governing irrigation institutions are not doomed to fail amid economic development several variables affect the incentives and capacity of farmers to redesign their local institutions to cope with the changes in the macro setting particularly flexible status quo institutions and a conductive governance regime can better facilitate farmers rule crafting efforts

employer matching and 401 k saving evidence from the health and retirement study abstract employer matching of employee 401 k contributions is often touted as a powerful incentive to save for retirement and is a key component in pension plan design in the united states using detailed administrative contribution earnings and pension plan data from the health and retirement study this analysis formulates a life cycle consistent econometric specification of 401 k saving and estimates the determinants of saving accounting for non linearities in the household budget set induced by matching the participation estimates indicate that an increase in the match rate by 25 cents per dollar of employee contribution raises 401 k participation by 5 percentage points the parametric and semi parametric estimates for saving indicate that an increase in the match rate by 25 cents per dollar of employee contribution raises 401 k saving by 365 in 1991 dollars overall the analysis reveals that the 401 k saving response to matching is quite inelastic and hence matching is a rather poor policy instrument with which to raise retirement saving

an approach to poverty alleviation for large international development agencies abstract this essay explores the nature of the poverty alleviation problem from the perspective of international development funding agencies these agencies have been poorly structured to promote the interests of the poor agencies such as the world bank and the us agency for international development usaid can achieve better results by creating independent units devoted exclusively to poverty alleviation these units should immerse their staff more completely in local societies with lower pay scales and longer tours of duty a revised form of cost benefit analysis around which these units should orient their work is presented previous analyses of poverty alleviation opportunities and failures have neglected funding agency influences

alleviating transitory food crises in sub saharan africa international altruism and trade the donor community has responded to unexpected or transitory drops in domestic food production in many countries in sub sabaran africa an empirical framework estimates and analyzes the correlation between this food aid and domestic production both emergency food aid and commercial imports are used to offset the effects of negative output shocks in sub saharan african countries the major recipients of global emergency food aid on average every one ton drop in cereal production is offset by the delivery of 0 8 tons of cereal and dairy products from abroad over four years most food aid arrives within a year of a shock and correlation of shocks over time along with the differences between crop years and calendar years may explain the link between aid and production the economic and political considerations also determine the global response to the emergency food needs of countries in africa the international response is not contingent on the form of government or the level of political and human rights violations poorer countries and those with well established nonemergency food aid programs receive larger amounts of emergency aid when needed food aid has long helped low income countries to sustain domestic food supplies and cope with transitory food insecurity and it has also been used to accelerate agricultural development and increase food production but food aid has been heavily criticized in the past decade on several grounds first it has been charged that the international response to food crises is slow meager and inefficient a related accusation suggests that countries granting emergency food aid disciriminate on the basis of the political and economic orientation of the recipient country second food aid has been thought to discourage domestic food production thus leading to long term dependence on donors finally it has

the illusory effects of saving incentives on saving the authors evaluate research on how tax based saving incentives iras and 401 k s affect saving previous research overstates the impact of the incentives on saving by failing to account for several issues households with saving incentives have stronger tastes for saving than others saving incentives have interacted with debt nonfinancial assets financial markets and pensions and saving incentives represent pretax balances whereas taxable accounts represent posttax balances accounting for these issues essentially eliminates the impact of saving incentives on saving the authors conclude that little if any of the contributions to existing saving incentives have raised saving

do tax incentives for saving in pension accounts cause debt accumulation evidence from danish register data abstract this paper applies a quasi experimental research design on a danish 2010 policy that reduced tax incentives for saving in annuity pension schemes to show significant substitution of savings from retirement accounts to gross debt repayments we find that for every 1 danish currency unit reduction in retirement savings 31 cents goes to debt repayments taking into account all types of savings we find full crowding out consistent with previous findings we document that the effect is driven by a minority about 23 percent who actively rebalance their savings

project appraisal and planning twenty years on this paper discusses the use and usefulness of social cost benefit analysis it briefly recalls the main features of the procedures put forward in the book by the authors and addresses some of the issues that have arisen in theoretical work since the early 1970s particularly the implications of uncertainty an analysis of the value of project appraisal under uncertainty is provided the rise and decline of project appraisal in the world bank and elsewhere is charted and reasons are considered particular attention is given to the difficulty of using shadow prices and to the institutional environment it is argued that evidence from analysis of the world bank s projects is consistent with placing a high value on the process of economic appraisal the costs of appraisal are noted as is the need to avoid excessive complexity the paper argues for the importance of an economic appraisal system and of attending to the incentives that operate in such a system

institutional design of public agencies and coproduction a study of irrigation associations in taiwan abstract the provision and production of many public goods and services involve the joint effort of government officials and citizen users this paper examines the successful experience of irrigation governance and management in taiwan as a means of understanding how joint efforts can be established and sustained through institutional arrangements several principles for institutional design including a careful definition of the scope of farmers participation complementarity of interests between individuals reduction of asymmetries involved in the use of authority and the existence of domains of autonomy are identified as instrumental to the success in taiwan

the economic theory of agrarian institutions introduction alternative approaches to the theory of institutions in economic development pranab bardhan rational peasants efficient institutions and a theory of rural organization methodological remarks for development economics joseph e stiglitz part 1 land and labour theories of sharecropping nirvikar singh a comparison of principal agent and bargaining solutions the case of tenancy contracts clive bell contracts with eviction in infinitely repeated principal agent relationships bhaskar dutta et al production relations in semi arid african agriculture hans binswanger et al part 2 credit and interlinked transactions rural credit markets the structure of interest rates exploitation and efficiency kaushik basu credit and agrarian class structure mukesh eswaran and ashok kotwal credit rationing tenancy productivity and the dynamics of inequality avishay braverman and joseph e stiglitz on choice among creditors and bonded labour contracts t n srinivasan some aspects of linked product and credit market contracts among risk neutral agents clive bell and t n srinivasan a note on interlinked rural economic arrangements pranab bardhan interlinkages and the pattern of competition debraj ray and kunal sengupta part 3 marketing and insurance agricultural institutions for insurance and stabilization david m newbery peasants risk aversion and the choice of marketing intermediaries and contracts a bargaining theory of equilibrium marketing contracts pinhas zusman part 4 co operatives technology and the state agricultural producer co operatives louis putterman institutional analysis of credit co operatives avishay braverman and j luis guasch agrarian structure technological innovations and the state alain de janvry et al

prices and protocols in public health care this article addresses the problem of how to determine the optimal allocation of public expenditure in the health sector the first part poses the question how should the set of services provided in the public health care system and the fees charged for them is chosen to maximize the health status of the population with a fixed budget first the findings show that policy reform should take into account the response of the private sector substituting for a reasonably well functioning private sector is not as valuable as providing services the private sector cannot second the assumptions needed to justify the cost effectiveness of medical interventions as a criterion for setting priorities are so restrictive as to make this method usable in few if any circumstances third prices for any one service should be set to balance the conflicting goals of encouraging its use and of conserving the budget for more effective services the second part broadens the objective of policy to cover the standard welfare economics concerns of utility and market failure the latter being extensive in the health sector it reexamines welfare maximization rules to show that only the market failure components of shadow prices are needed to calculate the welfare gains from public investments

how retirement saving programs increase saving this paper summarizes the authors work on the effect of ira and 401 k contributions on net personal saving they consider many different nonparametric approaches to controlling for heterogeneity in individual saving behavior and conclude that the weight of the available evidence suggests that contributions to both iras and 401 k s largely represent new saving the authors devote particular attention to reconciling their results with the findings in other studies that reach different conclusions sometimes using the same databases that the authors analyze methodological limitations that undermine the reliability of results in other studies explain many of these disparities

on measuring child costs with applications to poor countries the theoretical basis for measuring child costs is discussed and detailed consideration is given to two straightforward procedures for calculation engel s food share method and rothbarth s adult good method each of these methods embodies different definitions of child costs so that the same empirical evidence can generate quite different estimates depending on the method used it is shown that true costs are generally overstated by engel s method and understated by rothbarth s procedure although the latter unlike the former can provide a sensible starting point for cost measurement our estimates from sri lankan and indonesian data suggest that children cost their parents about 30 40 percent of what they spend on themselves

project evaluation and uncertainty in practice a statistical analysis of rate of return divergences of 1 015 world bank projects this article analyzes the world bank s experience with project evaluation for a sample of 1 015 projects by comparing estimated rates of return at appraisal with reestimated rates of return when construction works are completed usually 5 to 10 years after appraisal the analysis highlights the high degree of uncertainty in project analysis a wide range of variables has been introduced to explain the observed divergence in appraisal and reestimated rates of return but only a relatively small part of the divergence can be explained even with the benefit of hindsight project analysis thus has to cope with a large degree of uncertainty which the traditional methods of project evaluation and selection have not been able to reduce

the stagnation of smallholder agriculture in malawi a decade of structural adjustment abstract malawi s efforts at structural adjustment have revolved around reforming the marketing and pricing of outputs and inputs in smallholder agriculture in practice the price oriented adjustment policies were not thorough enough and have led to disappointing results there is clearly a need to push for further reforms in pricing however structural adjustment in malawi will have to go beyond just getting prices right policies must also concentrate on structural and institutional weaknesses that constrain smallholder agriculture and contribute to widespread food insecurity and malnutrition

buffer stock saving in retirement accounts abstract we use a dynamic programming model to explore the possibility and extent of precautionary saving in tax sheltered accounts such as the 401 k the main policy experiment examines the behavior of saving for different levels of unemployment insurance ui which is a perfect substitute for precautionary saving against job loss our results indicate that increasing the generosity of ui crowds out 401 k contributions made by younger workers who save primarily for precautionary reasons at the aggregate level we find that 401 k s increase national saving and that the magnitude of the effect depends on the generosity of ui

how well do static indicators identify the chronically poor abstract we investigate how well the most widely used static welfare indicators perform in identifying the chronically poor we propose a normative measure of performance the cost of a given impact on chronic poverty when transfers are contingent upon a purely static indicator using longitudinal household data from rural india we find that current consumption is not always a better indicator of chronic poverty than current income both however perform much better than other common indicators such as food share and access to land

modeling credit card borrowing a comparison of type i and type ii tobit approaches this study focuses on credit cards as a borrowing medium using 1998 survey of consumer finance data the type ii tobit approach used here overcomes a shortcoming of the conventional type i tobit model which restricts the coefficients of the binary borrowing decision the first step and balance level decision the second step to have the same sign by separately estimating the first and second steps as reduced form functions in which the overall effects of supply and demand are incorporated the type ii tobit procedure yields more consistent results with other studies and quantifies the marginal effect elasticity of a particular determinant for practical uses more than 11 000 bank and nonbank holding companies issued credit cards in 1997 among these firms the top 50 issuers market share is 90 4 and the 10 largest credit card issuers hold 57 3 of total outstanding balances bank holding company revenue from interest on outstanding balances is 57 5 billion which is 77 8 of the total revenue of 73 9 billion moreover about 80 of 102 million u s households own at least one credit card demand for credit cards consists of two components one being the demand as a transaction medium and the other being the demand as a borrowing medium over 68 of bank type credit card holders use their credit cards only as a transaction medium 1 which means that they pay off their balances in full each month cargill and wendel 1996 however other credit card holders use their cards as a source of short term lowamount borrowing or as an instrument for consumption smoothing this study focuses on credit cards as a borrowing medium total household debts have been investigated in other studies relating household debt levels to credit or liquidity constraints using a two step selection approach duca and rosenthal 1993 examine the extent to which borrowing constraints restrict household access to debt and the manner in which lenders vary debt limits across borrowers crook 2001 investigates the determinants of credit constraints and the factors in the amount of household debt with a multistage model however it is necessary to separate the credit card debt from other household debts in the sense that every credit card user could borrow without incurring a transaction cost brito and hartley 1995 provide a theoretical model in which the equilibrium interest rate can be very high and inflexible under the

the retirement wealth of the baby boom generation abstract the paper compares the well being of the baby boom generation ages 40 55 in 2001 with the same age group in 1983 i find little evidence that their relative position deteriorated over the period by some indicators this generation has seen an improvement in terms of income the 40 55 age group was at about the same relative position in 2001 as in 1983 in terms of conventional wealth there was some slippage over the period in terms of mean augmented wealth net worth plus pension and social security wealth their relative position improved somewhat but in terms of median augmented wealth there was again some slippage

savings in times of demographic change lessons from the german experience pension reforms in many developed countries make individuals shoulder a bigger share of longevity and income risks the desired response is that individuals accumulate private assets for retirement whether this actually takes place is of paramount relevance for scientists and policy makers we take germany as an example twenty years of pension reform have transformed the monolithic german pension system into a multi pillar system formerly generous public pension benefits are gradually being reduced while substantial incentives are granted to occupational and private saving schemes has this transition worked out we survey the reform steps and household s reactions how did individuals adjust their labor market behavior how did private and occupational pension plans take off how do behavioral adjustments vary in the population most germans adapted to the new situation both actual and expected retirement decisions changedand the share of households without supplementary pensions decreased from 73 to 39 in little more than a decade this is a remarkable success nonetheless households with low education low income and less financial education did neither adjust their retirement behavior nor pick up supplementary pension plans and are thus likely to face difficulties in bridging the gap arising in future pension income

the eclipse of the state reflections on stateness in an era of globalization the economic logic of the current international economy does not predict the eclipse of the state economic globalization does restrict state power but transnational capital needs capable states as much or more than does domestically oriented business national success in the current global political economy has been associated not with minimal states but with states that are capable active and engaged pressure for eclipse flows from the conjunction between transnational economic forces and the political hegemony of an anglo american ideology that in j p nettl s words simply leaves no room for any valid notion of the state even this combination of economic and political pressure is unlikely to eclipse the state but it is likely to put public institutions on the defensive eclipsing any possibility of the embedded liberalism described by john ruggie a leaner meaner state is the likely outcome the possibility of a more progressive alternative outcome would depend in part on whether current zero sum visions of the relation between the state and civil society can be replaced by a more synergistic view

socioeconomic stratification by wealth ranking is it valid abstract this paper validates a rapid rural appraisal wealth ranking technique using standard socioeconomic indicators from a household survey in rural bangladesh key informants stratified 1 637 households into three wealth groups according to a number of broad criteria and a questionnaire was subsequently administered to each household health demographic and economic variables derived from the questionnaire were found to differ significantly according to wealth group analysis supports the construct validity and empirical validity of the wealth ranking technique as a means of stratifying households by socioeconomic status the requirements for external validity as assessed through the comparison of findings with similar studies elsewhere in south asia are also satisfied

the management of irrigation systems how to evoke trust and avoid prisoner s dilemma abstract the performance of canal irrigation systems depends partly on trust by farmers in the good faith and abilities of irrigation officials in india this trust is typically lacking there is instead a prisoners dilemma type syndrome of anarchy under the canals in which farmers lack the confidence that if they refrain from taking water out of turn they will get water on time and officials lack the confidence that if they work conscientiously to deliver the water on time farmers will refrain from rule breaking in east asia this syndrome of irrigation anarchy scarcely exists the reasons for the difference are partly to do with agro climatic conditions but they are also related to policy relevant variables of physical design and organizational arrangements within the constraints of agro climatic conditions features of east asian design and organization might usefully be transferred to indian conditions including break point reservoirs irrigation scheduling and monitoring separation of construction organization from operations and maintenance organization and catchment based operating agencies with their own revenue base

urban bias a fresh look focusing on non conforming cases the articles in this special issue abandon the method of stylised facts and highlight instead variation over space and time in so doing they detect errors of commission and omission in the earlier literature on urban bias they call for a focus on the economic role of political institutions the political role of markets for assets and the political significance of technical change

reaching the poor cash transfer program targeting in cameroon identifying and selecting poor households with efficient targeting methods is essential for effective poverty alleviation programs this paper assesses the ex post performance of two popular targeting mechanisms proxy means testing pmt and community based targeting cbt in a pilot cash transfer program in cameroon several indicators and metrics to measure each method s performance in terms of inclusion of poor households and exclusion of non poor households are employed results consistently show that cbt performs poorly in terms of selecting households with low per capita consumption when compared to pmt cbt appears to select households with low physical and human capital regardless of actual consumption level however cbt also shows more variability in the selection decision than pmt even when alternative poverty definitions are used as robustness tests the pmt method used in the pilot slightly outperforms other targeting methods hybrid alternative pmt and universal targeting with equal budget but errors remain high when selecting 35 of the population for program participation the results suggest caution is needed in employing cbt methods to select households with low per capita consumption in an environment where poverty levels are high and administrative capacities are limited cbt performance may be improved through more uniform and consistent guidance on program selection criteria and process including explicit criteria that enable cbt monitoring as well as a better integration between pmt and cbt

modern varieties productivity and sustainability recent experience and emerging challenges abstract the contribution of modern varieties of cereal crops to increased productivity in the postgreen revolution period is reviewed and the future role of hybrids and biotechnology discussed particular emphasis is given to the ways in which modern varieties may contribute to input efficiency and sustainability finally economic and institutional issues in restructuring plant breeding programs for the most efficient use of resources in both the public and private sectors and at the national and international levels are analyzed

have iras increased u s saving evidence from consumer expenditure surveys the vast majority of individual retirement account contributions represent net new saving based on evidence from the quarterly consumer expenditure surveys ces the results are based on analysis of the relationship between ira contributions and other financial asset saving the data show almost no substitution of iras for other saving estimates are based on a flexible constrained optimization model with the ira limit the principal constraint the implications of this model for saving in the absence of the ira option match very closely the actual non ira financial asset saving behavior prior to 1982 ira saving does not show up as other financial asset saving in the pre ira period

the budgetary and welfare effects of tax deferred retirement saving accounts abstract the present paper analyzes the budgetary macroeconomic and welfare effects of tax deferred retirement saving accounts similar to u s 401 k plans in a dynamic general equilibrium overlapping generations economy with heterogeneous households because of the initial deferral of tax payments the short run budgetary cost of tax deferred accounts is significantly higher than the long run cost therefore the budget neutral introduction of tax deferred accounts would make current and near future households worse off although it would increase national wealth and total output in the long run if the government spread the short run cost to future households by increasing debt the policy change could make all age cohorts on average as well off as the economy without tax deferred accounts due to increased government debt and debt service costs however national wealth and total output would decrease in the long run thus introducing tax deferred accounts would not increase national wealth and improve social welfare at the same time this is partly because the policy change is regressive and reduces the risk sharing effect of the current income tax system

identifying the poor in developing countries do different definitions matter abstract this paper compares several commonly used definitions of poverty household survey data from cote d ivoire are examined to see whether different definitions choose the same people as poor we find that they often do not choose the same people even though we a priori set all the definitions so that 30 of the population is classified as poor this implies that different definitions of poverty may lead to different policy recommendations which suggests that more attention should be given to the choice of a particular definition of poverty when analyzing the effects of economic policies on the poor

do 401 k contributions crowd out other personal saving during the late 1980s contributions to 401 k plans eclipsed contributions to individual retirement accounts iras as the leading form of tax deferred individual retirement saving in the united states in this paper we describe patterns of participation in 401 k plans contrast these patterns with ira participation and evaluate the net impact of 401 k contributions on personal saving we find that 401 k participation conditional on eligibility exceeds 60 at all income levels in contrast ira participation at the height of that program rose sharply with income we use two methods to evaluate the net saving effect of 401 k contributions on personal saving we compare the financial assets of families who are eligible for 401 k saving with the assets of those who are not eligible and we consider the change over time in the assets of like groups of savers we find little evidence that 401 k contributions substitute for other forms of personal saving including ira contributions

tax deferred saving accounts heterogeneity and policy reforms abstract tax deferred saving accounts tda are systematically used in many countries in the united states households access to tda exhibits substantial heterogeneity 401 k has a higher contribution limit than ira but only 50 of workers are eligibility for it i developed an overlapping generations model that captures the tax benefits of tda and the heterogeneity in 401 k eligibility to investigate the quantitative impacts of tda on the aggregate economy and their implications on policy reforms experiment results show that ira already provides sufficient tax benefits for most households the effects of providing universal 401 k are relatively insignificant because households who can benefit from 401 k already have access to it on the other hand raising the tda contribution limit allows high income households to increase their use of tda and results in stronger effects on the economy when households use of tda is considered the u s income tax system is less distortionary and the welfare gain from a consumption tax reform is reduced by more than half

what is the aggregate economic rate of return to foreign aid in recent years academic studies have been converging towards the view that foreign aid promotes aggregate economic growth we employ a simulation approach to i validate the coherence of empirical aid growth studies published since 2008 and ii calculate plausible ranges for the rate of return to aid our results highlight the long run nature of aid financed investments and the importance of channels other than accumulation of physical capital we find the return to aid lies in ranges commonly accepted for public investments and there is little to justify the view that aid has had a significant pernicious effect on productivity

the success of a policy model irrigation management transfer in mexico abstract the mexican policy of irrigation management transfer has been widely propagated as a success and has become a model for other countries seeking to improve the performance of their irrigation systems while also cutting public expenditures this article analyses the process of policy making that has generated the policy model and follows the practices means and events through which it has achieved increasing transnational circulation popularity and support the main argument of this article is that the success of a policy model is only a success within the cultural and ideological understandings of a policy network and given the means practices and events that generate and disseminate it this particular case further suggests that success in policy making rather than being based on straightforward evidence of improved management performance is often part of a cultural performance

food policy in africa political causes and social effects food policy in africa is derived policy it is developed in an effort to solve the political and economic problems of persons other than fanners food policy is employed to obtain peaceful relations between governments and their urban constituents and to secure the allegiance of powerful elites a major consequence is the transformation of social and economic patterns in the countryside

participation in and contributions to 401 k pension plans evidence om plan data k plans differ from traditional employer sponsored pension plans in that employees are permitted to make voluntary pre tax contributions hence the sensitivity of participation and contributions to plan charac teristics notably the employer matching rate may play a critical role in retirement saving using plan level data from form 5500s filed annu ally with the internal revenue service ifind that substantial increases occur when an employer moves from a zero to a small or moderately sized match but that at higher match rates employee contributions fall

does 401 k eligibility increase saving evidence from propensity score subclassification abstract by comparing 401 k eligible and ineligible households wealth this paper estimates that on average about one half of 401 k balances represent new private savings and about one quarter of 401 k balances represent new national savings responses to eligibility vary considerably however with households who normally save the most largely contributing funds they would have saved anyway this paper improves on previous research by 1 employing propensity score subclassification to control more completely for observed household characteristics 2 controlling for more household characteristics including several correlated with unobserved savings preferences and 3 adjusting the observed measure of households wealth to reduce measurement error

modules for modernisation colonial irrigation in india and the technological dimension of agrarian change water control is central to the political economy of water distribution in large scale irrigation in india the changes in water distribution irrigation technology and agrarian development through the introduction of the block system technical devices called modules and volumetric water pricing in the nira left bank canal bombay presidency in the period 1900 40 are discussed to show the relationship of the three dimensions of water control technical managerial and socio political this analysis points to the crucial but contradictory role of the state in triggering processes of agricultural modernisation through intervention in water management the debate on the success of the block system continues to the present day but little progress has been made in designing solutions for inequality in water distribution the article suggests that liberalisation policies create political and institutional space for changing accountability relations and agricultural price regimes relevant to wa

using the medicare buy in program to estimate the effect of medicaid on ssi participation aaron s yelowitz this article assesses the importance of receiving supplemental health insurance on participation in supplemental security income ssi for the elderly the implementation of the qualified medicare beneficiary qmb program offered a substitute for medicaid and expanded health insurance eligibility to a higher income level using a sample of elderly respondents aged 66 to 75 i find that the qmb program reduced ssi participation more than half of the qmb participants were previously covered by ssi and medicaid the calculations suggest that the qmb program was not as expensive as it might first appear because of reductions in ssi expenditure jel h53 138 j14 i introduction the supplemental security income ssi program in the united states provides assistance to elderly blind and disabled individuals who are poor it is federally financed and administered by the social security administration although much more attention has been focused on the former aid to families with dependent children afdc program which primarily targets poor single parent families more money was spent on cash relief for ssi recipients in 1993 23 6 billion compared to 22 3 billion 1 in addition to cash ssi recipients receive supplemental health insurance coverage for medicare similar to private medigap policies through the medicaid program this provides a second important benefit to ssi recipients in fiscal year 1993 medicaid expenditure for elderly categorically needy ssi recipients amounted to 14 1 billion 2 several studies have examined the importance of health insurance for working age adults in the labor market 3 in addition the effects of recent medicaid expansions for younger populations have been extensively studied 4 little is known however about the quantitative importance of medicaid on the ssi participation of the elderly the key obstacle in assessing this effect is that until recently medicaid eligibility had been closely related to ssi eligibility in most states this study analyzes the introduction of the qualified medicare beneficiary qmb program enacted in different states from 1987 to 1992 which offered supplemental health insurance coverage to the elderly without the need to participate in ssi the qmb program offered some of the same medicare cost sharing benefits that an elderly ssi recipient would receive from medicaid including the payment of medicare premiums deductibles and copayments 5 moreover the qmb program expanded medicaid coverage to individuals with higher inc omes and assets than the ssi program 6 the primary goal of this article is to document the link between the qmb program and the decision to participate in ssi i find that raising the income limit in qmb program significantly reduces ssi participation particularly among african americans and the less educated the coefficient estimates suggest that in the absence of the qmb buy in program ssi participation would have been 45 higher in 1992 than it actually was the caseload growth in the elderly ssi population would have looked very similar to the caseload growth of the disabled 851 population a group not eligible for qmb in addition the qmb program was considerably less expensive than one would infer from simply calculating the increased health care expenditure because of reductions in ssi expenditure for cash benefits the rest of the article is arranged as follows section ii outlines some relevant features of the ssi medicaid and qmb programs in particular it reviews how the income eligibility limits for qmb and ssi are computed the difference between those limits is a measure of how closely are medicaid and ssi linked it will subsequently be used as the key independent variable in the regression analysis this section also shows the cross sectional and time series variation in the qmb program section iii models the potential effects on ssi participation of the introduction of the qmb program and considers the role of information

a model for irreversible investment with construction and revenue uncertainty this paper presents a model of investment in projects that are characterized by uncertainty over both the construction costs and revenues both processes are modeled as spectrally negative levy jump diffusions the optimal stopping problem that determines the value of the project is solved under fairly general assumptions it is found that the current value of the benefit to cost ratio bcr decreases in the frequency of negative shocks to the construction process this implies that the cost overruns that can be expected if one ignores such shocks are increasing in their frequency based on calibrated data the model is applied to the proposed construction of high speed rail in the uk and it is found that its economic case cannot currently be made and is unlikely to be met at any time in the next decade in addition it is found that ignoring construction uncertainty leads to a substantial probability of an erroneous decision being taken

good countries or good projects macro and micro correlates of world bank project performance abstract this paper investigates macro and micro correlates of aid financed development project outcomes using data from over 6000 world bank projects evaluated between 1983 and 2011 country level macro measures of the quality of policies and institutions are strongly correlated with project outcomes consistent with the view that country level performance matters for aid effectiveness however a striking feature of the data is that the success of individual development projects varies much more within countries than it does between countries a large set of project level micro variables including project size project length the effort devoted to project preparation and supervision and early warning indicators that flag problematic projects during the implementation stage accounts for some of this within country variation in project outcomes measures of world bank project manager quality also matter significantly for the ultimate project outcomes we discuss the implications of these findings for donor policies aimed at aid effectiveness

the effect of language on economic behavior evidence from savings rates health behaviors and retirement assets languages dier widely in the ways they encode time i test the hypothesis that languages that grammatically associate the future and the present foster future oriented behavior this prediction arises naturally when well documented eects of language structure are merged with models of intertemporal choice empirically i nd that speakers of such languages save more retire with more wealth smoke less practice safer sex and are less obese this holds both across countries and within countries when comparing demographically similar native households the evidence does not support the most obvious forms of common causation i discuss implications for theories of intertemporal choice

the effects of financial education in the workplace evidence from a survey of households abstract we use a novel household survey to investigate the effects of employer based financial education on personal saving we explore cross sectional relations between the availability of employer based financial education and various measures of asset accumulation and we interpret these patterns in light of various potentially confounding factors our findings favor the hypothesis that employer based financial education stimulates saving both in general and for retirement

are the welfare losses from imperfect targeting important we quantify and compare the size of the welfare losses arising from the use of alternative imperfect welfare indicators as substitutes for the conventionally preferred consumption indicator we find that the size of the welfare losses associated with different indicators varies considerably an asset based index and the share of food as targeting indicators were found to have the highest welfare losses relative to all other targeting indicators examined our preferred welfare index implies that the losses from the two best targeting indicators i e reported expenditures and reported income are statistically significant but very low less than 5

the behavioral life cycle hypothesis self control mental accounting and framing are incorporated in a behavioral enrichment of the life cycle theory of saving called the behavioral life cycle blc hypothesis the key assumption of the blc theory is that households treat components of their wealth as nonfungible even in the absence of credit rationing specifically wealth is assumed to be divided into three mental accounts current income current assets and future income the temptation to spend is assumed to be greatest for current income and least for future income considerable empirical support for the blc theory is presented primarily drawn from published econometric studies

structural change in malawi since independence consequences of a development strategy based on large scale agriculture abstract this paper investigates the nature of the structural change which has occured in the malawian economy since independence and identifies key policies pursued by the government which it is argued have been decisive in shaping this development the salient feature of structural change is shown to be the rapid growth of large scale agriculture associated with an equally rapid transfer of labour into wage employment and a decline in the importance of peasant production the implications of these changes for living standards and future development and policy are considered

a poverty oriented cost benefit approach to the analysis of development projects abstract this essay presents a form of cost benefit analysis where benefits are defined in terms of contributions to basic human capabilities this capabilities approach to project analysis is contrasted with the us agency for international development s logical framework approach the world bank s economic cost benefit approach and distributionally sensitive economic cost benefit analysis i argue that international development agencies concessional resource transfers could contribute more to the well being of the world s poor if guided by this cost benefit approach than they do under current arrangements the notion of capabilities as fundamental requirements for well being has been developed by amartya sen

supervision and performance the case of world bank projects abstract this paper explores the impact of donor supervision on development project performance using data from world bank funded projects maximum likelihood estimation of a restricted ordered probit function finds that early supervision has a positive impact on performance given the size of world bank funded projects gains from increasing supervision far outweigh the costs the results provide evidence of an institutional bias toward lending at the expense of increased development impact

zimbabwe s maize based green revolution preconditions for replication abstract the green revolution was launched in 1960 in zimbabwe five years before it got underway in india since zimbabwe s green revolution was spearheaded by white commercial farmers however it was ignored by africa s new leaders in the 1960s as they experimented with state farms from moscow communal farms from china and land settlement schemes from israel at zimbabwe s independence in 1980 the new majority ruled government introduced a number of programs to help smallholders increase food and cash crop production drawing on a backlog of hybrid maize varieties expanded access to credit higher guaranteed government maize prices and marketing subsidies smallholders doubled maize production during 1980 1986 zimbabwe s maize based green revolution challenges those who allege that hybrid maize cannot compete with sorghum in low rainfall areas and that it is unsuitable for resource poor farmers because of the need to purchase new seed each year today virtually 100 of zimbabwe s maize area is under hybrids and short season hybrids are outcompeting other foodgrains in many low rainfall areas zimbabwe s biggest challenge is to develop cost effective marketing policies and institutions to sustain its maize based green revolution countries trying to replicate zimbabwe s success story should focus on fulfilling four interrelated preconditions political technological economic and institutional

economic structure and the politics of sectoral bias east asian and other cases governments of poor countries generally practise urban biased policies that penalise the agricultural sector to the advantage of non agriculture conversely governments of rich countries generally practise rural bias as south korea and taiwan have become relatively wealthy over recent decades they have also shifted from urban biased to rural biased policies adherents of the rational choice approach to political analysis claim to provide an explanation of the causes of this pattern this explanation is based on changing patterns of political interests and coalition forming possibilities induced by the changes in economic structure characteristically associated with economic growth an evaluation of this claim in the light of the south korean and taiwanese cases suggests that a it has considerable validity although its explanatory power is easily exaggerated b a satisfactory rational choice approach would encompass a wider range of political actors than has been incorporated in existing analy

trust in a rent seeking world health and government transformed in northeast brazil abstract this article draws lessons from a set of innovative programs carried out by a state government in brazil now widely acclaimed for excellence in public management key to the high performance was strong worker commitment to the job and what the state did to elicit a topic of little note in the development literature but of central importance in the literature of industrial performance and workplace transformation in the industrialized countries the state created an unusual sense of calling among the program s workers new prestige in the communities where they worked and an informed citizenry that both monitored the workers and trusted them

the system of administrative and political corruption canal irrigation in south india the paper describes how some irrigation engineers raise vast amounts of illicit revenue from the distribution of water and contracts and redistribute part to superior officers and politicians it argues that the corruption system which is centred on control of personnel transfers is an important supply side reason for poor performance of canal irrigated agriculture insofar as the same system operates in other government departments it may be more important for understanding indian politics and the political influences on economic development than has previously been realised

the tradeoff between mortgage prepayments and tax deferred retirement savings abstract many households face the tradeoff between paying an extra dollar off the remaining mortgage on their house and saving that extra dollar in tax deferred accounts tdas used for retirement we show that under certain conditions it becomes a tax arbitrage to reduce mortgage prepayments and to increase tda contributions because of the tax deductibility of mortgage interest and tax exemption of qualified retirement savings using data from the survey of consumer finances we document that a significant number of households that are accelerating their mortgage payments instead of saving in tdas forgo a profitable tax arbitrage opportunity finally we show empirically that this inefficient behavior is unlikely to be driven by liquidity or other financial constraints rather the observed behavior can be attributed to a certain extent to the reluctance of many households to participate in financial markets as either lenders or borrowers

pensions and household wealth accumulation abstract economists have long suggested that higher private pension benefits crowd out other sources of household wealth accumulation we exploit detailed information on pensions and lifetime earnings for older workers in the 1992 wave of the health and retirement study and employ an instrumental variable iv identification strategy to estimate crowd out the iv estimates suggest statistically significant crowd out each dollar of pension wealth is associated with a 53 67 cent decline in nonpension wealth with less precision we use an instrumental variable quantile regression estimator and find that most of the effect is concentrated in the upper quantiles of the wealth distribution

institutional and individual investors saving for old age this paper brings together the academic literature on individual and institutional investors in order to understand the nature of difficulties faced by them and set the background for the special issue this introductory article and the papers in the special issue contribute to the debate on how to support individuals in their savings commitments and investment decision making and whether and how institutional investors have fulfilled their role in supporting the development of the funded pension industry there are three main conclusions i individual investors are not ready for the role that has been assigned to them in the pension industry ii institutional investors are a long way short of establishing healthy relational contracts and trustworthy relationships with their clients and iii more effective regulation may be needed

social welfare orderings a life cycle perspective life cycle theories emphasize the fact that consumption is allocated intertemporally on the basis of a long term concept of resources that differs from household income because life cycle income is unobserved the distribution of this variable cannot be recovered it is shown that within a suitably defined class a predictor of life cycle income based on household income and expenditure entails a distribution dominated in a social welfare sense by the distribution of life cycle incomes a predictor constructed from socio demographic variables induces a distribution that welfare dominates the distribution of life cycle incomes

foreign aid and conditions precedent political and bureaucratic dimensions abstract international donor agencies increasingly use their influence to press for major reforms in development policies and administrative practices in third world countries reform recommendations are often conceptualized with little regard for the political and bureaucratic contexts in which they are to be adopted and pursued without greater concern for issues of political and bureaucratic feasibility however reform recommendations are likely to have only minimal impact policy space research and administrative systems research are promising approaches for acquiring and analyzing information about the political and bureaucratic aspects of government decision making such analyses can improve the potential for reform recommendations to be adopted and pursued

comparative advantage and bilateral foreign aid policy this paper formulates the problem of bilateral aid allocation in terms of the comparative advantage framework it is argued that the adaptability of this framework to foreign aid critically depends on the assumption that each donor s aid budget is spent to a large extent on its home market this assumption is not contradicted by empirical evidence an analysis of swiss foreign aid data then suggests that there is scope for considerable gains from specialization we conclude that donors should coordinate their behavior according to their comparative advantage to achieve an optimal allocation of global aid resources

maize is life malawi s delayed green revolution abstract the pattern of maize seed development in malawi demonstrates the importance of farmers capacity to articulate their interests through collective action and institutions despite the vital significance of maize as a wage good in malawi limited effective demand for maize seed research prolonged the period of technical stagnation analysis of the institutional factors shaping the demand for maize seed research complements previous work on malawi s political economy the supply of seed technology and adoption with implications for current political changes in that nation the importance of farmers organizations and state commitment to agricultural research in sub saharan africa

development planning in the gambia the gap between planners and farmers perceptions expectations and objectives abstract this paper challenges the prevalent view that irrigation development largely depends on engineering agricultural and managerial inputs and argues with reference to gambian irrigation projects that new technologies may be adapted by farmers in ways that are incompatible with planners objectives the conclusion is that planners need to give greater attention to the organization and control of production and consumption within the household this would require a change in attitudes among many planners the recruitment of more social scientists into planning teams and greater co operation between planners farmers of all socio economic categories and extension agents

managing underperformance risk in project portfolio selection we consider a project selection problem where each project has an uncertain return with partially characterized probability distribution the decision maker selects a feasible subset of projects so that the risk of the portfolio return not meeting a specified target is minimized to model and evaluate this risk we propose and justify a general performance measure the underperformance riskiness index uri we define a special case of the uri the entropic underperformance riskiness index euri for the project selection problem we minimize the euri of the project portfolio which is the reciprocal of the absolute risk aversion ara of an ambiguity averse individual with constant ara who is indifferent between the target return with certainty and the uncertain portfolio return the euri extends the riskiness index of aumann and serrano 2008 by incorporating the target and distributional ambiguity and controls the underperformance probability up for any target level our model includes correlation

seasonal food crises and policy responses a narrative account of three food security crises in malawi summary this paper examines seasonal food price crises in malawi in the 2000s malawi experienced three episodes in which seasonal maize prices rose in 2001 02 2004 05 and 2007 09 by 354 218 and 395 respectively these extreme price spikes resulted from a sequential interaction of economic and political events a repeated pattern of cause inapt response and adverse outcome is identified the relative neglect in vulnerability analysis of staple food price movements as lead indicators of impending food crises is emphasized and implications are drawn for price stabilisation public private coordination and social protection policies

the fruits and fallacies of neoliberalism the case of irrigation policy abstract neoliberal doctrine provides the analytic basis for a convincing explanation and critique of irrigation policy in the third world there is a strong case for subjecting capital and recurrent decisions to the discipline of scarcity pricing however it is rarely practicable to apply scarcity pricing rigorously because of the economic and technical infeasibility of volumetric water pricing in most third world irrigation schemes the taiwanese experience illustrates that political and institutional mechanisms for promoting managerial performance can be effective where the neoliberal prescription fails

iras and household saving this paper examines the effects of individual retirement accounts iras on private and national saving the authors construct a formal model of dynamic utility maximization that generates closed form equations for ira and other saving their empirical estimates indicate that raising the annual ira contribution limit between 1983 and 1986 would have resulted in little if any increase in national saving results from sensitivity analysis imply substantially smaller effects on national saving than most previous researchers have estimated the authors results are consistent with new evidence they present indicating considerable potential among ira holders to shift taxable forms of saving into iras copyright 1994 by american economic association

declining public pensions in an era of demographic ageing will private provision fill the gap abstract demographic crisis and imprudent commitments have induced a crisis in public pension programmes in oecd countries will present and prospective cutbacks lead to greater private saving either in the form of private pension provision or in other forms of saving the paper surveys existing evidence and provides new results on three questions do individuals substitute private for public provision of savings when public pension programmes are cut back voluntarily do individuals respond to incentives to join sponsored or tax subsidised arrangements if encouraged by the government and if individuals are prepared to make such arrangements and where saving is voluntary do they save enough to replace previous prospective public pension flows

ten years of q squared implications for understanding and explaining poverty summary over the past decade there have been a number of initiatives to promote a more systematic integration of quantitative and qualitative or q squared approaches to poverty analysis in the global south and a large body of literature had emerged the objective of the article is to present a selective review of this empirical work with a view to demonstrate the value it has added for understanding and explaining poverty the evidence strongly suggests that q squared approaches have aided our understanding of the characteristics of the poor and the causes of poverty

government action social capital and development reviewing the evidence on synergy abstract instead of assuming a zero sum relationship between government involvement and private cooperative efforts the five preceding articles argue for the possibility of state society synergy that active government and mobilized communities can enhance each others developmental efforts this article draws on these articles to explore the forms and sources of state society synergy i argue that synergy usually combines complementarity with embeddedness and is most easily fostered in societies characterized by egalitarian social structures ard robust coherent state bureaucracies i also argue however that synergy is constructable even in the more adverse circumstances typical of third world countries

catching up or crowding out the crowd out effects of catch up retirement contributions on non retirement saving abstract using tax data this paper exploits a discontinuous increase in retirement contribution limits based on exact date of birth this paper finds clear evidence that constrained individuals increase their retirement saving when so eligible but finds no evidence suggesting that non retirement saving falls in the baseline specifications one can rule out crowd out greater than approximately 0 38 to 0 57 at the 95 confidence level depending on the measure used this suggests that the additional contributions induced by catch up eligibility represent an increase in total private saving

assessing the effectiveness of saving incentives concluding that iras and 401 k s do increase saving this text provides a fresh cost benefit approach for analyzing the success of savings incentives it compares the new savings to the government tax revenue lost through contributions to iras and 401 k s

active vs passive decisions and crowd out in retirement savings accounts evidence from denmark using 41 million observations on savings for the population of denmark we show that the effects of retirement savings policies on wealth accumulation depend on whether they change savings rates by active or passive choice subsidies for retirement accounts which rely on individuals to take an action to raise savings primarily induce individuals to shift assets from taxable accounts to retirement accounts we estimate that each 1 of government expenditure on subsidies increases total saving by only 1 cent in contrast policies that raise retirement contributions if individuals take no action such as automatic employer contributions to retirement accounts increase wealth accumulation substantially we estimate that approximately 15 of individuals are active savers who respond to tax subsidies primarily by shifting assets across accounts 85 of individuals are passive savers who are unresponsive to subsidies but are instead heavily influenced by automatic contributions made on their behalf active savers tend to be wealthier and more financially sophisticated we conclude that automatic contributions are more effective at increasing savings rates than subsidies for three reasons i subsidies induce relatively few individuals to respond ii they generate substantial crowd out conditional on response and iii they do not increase the savings of passive individuals who are least prepared for retirement jel codes h2 h3

generating disaggregated poverty maps an application to vietnam abstract previous research shows that geographic targeting in poverty programs is not accurate unless the geographic units are small household surveys however can rarely estimate poverty rates for more than 5 10 regions this study uses data from vietnam to illustrate a method for generating disaggregated poverty maps first the relationship between poverty and household indicators is estimated using survey data then census data on those same indicators are used to estimate poverty rates for each of the 543 rural districts the results indicate that vietnamese poverty is concentrated in the north and in districts furthest from the coast and cities

household strategies and rural livelihood diversification this article reviews the recent literature on diversification as a livelihood strategy of rural households in developing countries with particular reference to sub saharan africa livelihood diversification is defined as the process by which rural families construct a diverse portfolio of activities and social support capabilities in order to survive and to improve their standards of living the determinants and effects of diversification in the areas of poverty income distribution farm output and gender are examined some policy inferences are summarised the conclusion is reached that removal of constraints to and expansion of opportunities for diversification are desirable policy objectives because they give individuals and households more capabilities to improve livelihood security and to raise living standards

the effects of 401 k participation on the wealth distribution an instrumental quantile regression analysis we use instrumental quantile regression approach to examine the effects of 401 k plans on wealth using data from the survey of income and program participation using 401 k eligibility as an inst

what ever happened to poverty alleviation abstract the failure of many programs directed toward alleviating poverty is better understood than the successes this paper identifies the traits that characterize several better performing programs funded by the ford foundation traits that are not commonly found in such programs all focused narrowly on a particular trade or activity in the beginning used credit as an entry point started by brokering loans rather than lending directly and had leadership linked to powerful institutions participants were already engaged in the economic activities supported by the programs marketing channels existed and powerful consumer groups were often in favor of production by beneficiary groups though these findings seem obvious few programs funded by donors display these characteristics suggesting that donors choose programs and organizations more carefully and not limit their funding to the nongovernmental sector

the effects of pension funds on markets performance a review the worldwide reforming process of pension systems triggered by the demographic transition and globalization has led several countries to implement multi pillar pension systems and enhance pension funds for this reason the studies on the effects that pension funds exert on markets performance have been flourishing in the last decades in this paper we provide an updated review of the empirical advances in this field of study with particular focus on the effects that pension funds produce on labour markets financial markets and economic growth

the effects of financial education in the workplace evidence from a survey of employers we examine the effects of education on financial decision making skills by identifying an interesting source of variation in pertinent training during the 1990s an increasing number of individuals were exposed to programs of financial education provided by their employers if as some have argued low saving frequently results from a failure to appreciate economic vulnerabilities then education of this form could prove to have a powerful effect on behavior the current paper undertakes an analysis of these programs using a previously unexploited survey of employers we find that both participation in and contributions to voluntary savings plans are significantly higher when employers offer retirement seminars the effect is typically much stronger for non highly compensated employees than for highly compensated employees the frequency of seminars emerges as a particularly important correlate of behavior we are unable to detect any effects of written materials such as newsletters and summary plan descriptions regardless of frequency we also present evidence on other determinants of plan activity