cost uncertainty and the rate of investment abstract this paper examines the effect of cost and price uncertainty on the optimal rate of investment by firms within a general equilibrium framework former works which have studied this issue like hartman 1972 and abel 1983 1984 1985 have come to the conclusion that this effect is positive since increased price uncertainty raises expected profitability but these studies assume a fixed discount rate which is equivalent to assuming that consumers are risk neutral this paper shows that if consumers are risk averse the effect of uncertainty may be reversed and investment may be depressed when price or cost uncertainty is increased

uncertainty and endogenous technical change in climate policy models until recently endogenous technical change and uncertainty have been modeled separately in climate policy models in this paper we review the emerging literature that considers both these elements together taken as a whole the literature indicates that explicitly including uncertainty has important quantitative and qualitative impacts on optimal climate change technology policy

the kogut and singh national cultural distance index time to start using it as a springboard rather than a crutch this counterpoint investigates the continued relevance of the 30 year old kogut and singh ks index of cultural distance ks was a seminal contribution highlighting the relevance of cultural differences in ib however since then simplistic replications of the original arguments and index have prevented us from progressing towards a better understanding of how cross national differences matter we discuss the mechanisms underlying the construct and how they relate to the algorithm data and its critiques we call for more theoretically informed approaches highlighting the underlying mechanisms and specifying which data and algorithms best capture those mechanisms in each research context

the making of a construct lessons from 30 years of the kogut and singh cultural distance index the 30 year anniversary of kogut and singh s 1988 groundbreaking study that introduced the concept of cultural distance and its accompanying measure provides the opportunity to take stock of what makes for a good construct we organize our discussion around the issues of concept algorithm and data to clarify and gauge their contribution before highlighting the impact of their work more generally many of the challenges raised by critical observers focus on one of these three dimensions as there is value in looking systematically at the construct from concept to data we set out the argument of the index and discuss the validity of selected lines of criticism we identify a number of emergent and future directions for the conceptualization and measurement of cultural distance to facilitate the continuing advancement of work on international business

an overview of hofstede inspired country level culture research in international business since 2006 kirkman lowe gibson s 2006 jibs article summarized and critiqued international business research inspired by the most cited book in the field hofstede s 1980 culture s consequences international differences in work related values hofstede 1980 2001 they identified a number of issues in this research and offered several recommendations for improving it in the future thus laying a strong foundation for hofstede related work since 2006 in this commentary we assess kirkman et al s 2006 impact on the field our review shows that their ideas have informed and inspired their own and other scholars work and have led to significant progress in the way in which hofstede s framework has been used in international business in the last decade here we specifically focus on the country level culture studies and assess how research has implemented kirkman et al s three main recommendations to explore cultural dimensions beyond those introduced by hofstede to distinguish between country effects and cultural effects and to show not only if culture matters but also how much it matters in addition to the overview we provide a comprehensive test of these recommendations showing how they can be put into research practice underscoring the theoretical and empirical relevance of the original 2006 article our commentary concludes with additional ideas on further strengthening hofstede inspired research at the country level of analysis

national cultural distance and cross border acquisition performance previous theoretical research has argued that national cultural distance hinders cross border acquisition performance by increasing the costs of integration this article tests the alternative hypothesis that national cultural distance enhances cross border acquisition performance by providing access to the target s and or the acquirer s diverse set of routines and repertoires embedded in national culture using a multi dimensional measure of national cultural distance and controlling for other effects we examine a sample of 52 cross border acquisitions that took place between 1987 and 1992 and find a positive association between national cultural distance and cross border acquisition performance

estimating willingness to pay for housing characteristics an application of the ellickson bid rent model abstract the purpose of this paper is to estimate willingness to pay for housing characteristics using the discrete choice bid rent framework developed by b ellickson j urban econom 9 56 79 1981 and modified by s r lerman and c r kern j urban econom 13 358 363 1983 the paper provides an initial empirical test of the lerman and kern modifications using household level data from bogota colombia the results of the model are evaluated by comparing forecasted bid rents to actual rents and forecasted dwelling occupants to actual occupants by examining the demand prices which emerge from the analysis and by comparing the results to previous housing demand research which uses a hedonic type approach to analyze identical data the findings of the study show that the bid rent model works reasonably well in its predictions and in its estimates of the demand for attributes and in some ways it may perform better than a hedonic type model in forecasting the demand for housing attributes

a note on competitive investment under uncertainty uncertainty over future output prices or input costs can affect investment by a riskneutral firm in two opposing ways first it can increase the value of the marginal unit of capital which leads to more investment this only requires that the stream of future profits generated by the marginal unit be a convex function of the stochastic variable by jensen s inequality the expected present value of that stream is increased this result was demonstrated by richard hartman 1972 and later extended by andrew abel 1983 and others in their models constant returns to scale and the substitutability of capital with other factors ensure that the marginal profitability of capital is convex in output price and input costs even with fixed proportions however this convexity can result from the ability of the firm to vary output so that the marginal unit of capital need not be utilized at times when the output price is low or input costs are high if investment is irreversible and can be postponed a second effect of uncertainty is to create an opportunity cost of investing now rather than waiting for new information to arrive before committing resources this increases the full cost of investing in a marginal unit of capital which reduces investment 2 hence the net effect of uncertainty on irreversible investment depends on the size of this opportunity cost relative to the increase in the value of the marginal unit of capital the sign of the net effect is significant because of its possible policy implications pindyck 1988 and giuseppe bertola 1989 developed models in which a firm faces a downward sloping demand curve and found the net effect to be negative ricardo caballero 1991 has recently studied investment by an individual firm facing a stochastically shifting demand curve he shows that as returns to scale become constant and the elasticity of demand faced by the firm rises this opportunity cost of investing now rather than waiting approaches zero thus in the limit of constant returns and an infinitely elastic demand curve an increase in uncertainty tends to raise rather than decrease current investment even if that investment is irreversible it is important to stress that caballero s limiting result treats the firm in isolation and describes the effect of a meanpreserving increase in price uncertainty and not an increase in industry wide demand uncertainty this note shows that in a competitive market the key interactions between irreversibility and uncertainty occur at the industry level and can only be understood by making price and industry output endogenous 3 doing so restores the positive opportunity cost associated with irreversible investment in addition caballero s result is based on a model with convex adjustment costs an innovative aspect of the model is that these costs can be asymmetric thereby allowing for partial or complete irreversibility complete irreversibility corresponds to a cost of massachusetts institute of technology cambridge ma 02139 this work was supported by the national science foundation under grant no ses 8618502 and by mit s center for energy policy research my thanks to julio rotemberg and especially ricardo caballero for very helpful comments and discussions 1then the marginal profit of capital at each time t in the future is max o pt ct where ct is variable cost thus a unit of capital represents a set of all options on future production which are worth more the greater the variance of pt or ct 2for a detailed discussion of this point and a survey of the recent literature on irreversibility and its implications for investment and market evolution see pindyck 1991 3studies that make price endogenous include steven lippman and richard rumelt 1985 avinash dixit 1989 1991 and john leahy 1990

global warming irreversibility and learning a number of economists have argued that the literature on the irreversibility effect implies that current abatement of greenhouse gas emissions should be greater when there is the possibility of obtaining better information in the future about the potential damages from global warming than when there is no possibility of obtaining better information in this paper we show that even the simplest model of global warming does not satisfy either of epstein s 1980 sufficient conditions so it is not possible to use epstein s analysis to tell whether the irreversibility effect applies to models of global warming we derive an alternative sufficient condition for the irreversibility effect to hold

the urban housing market a new approach for estimating demand for housing by dwelling type abstract a new approach for estimating urban housing demand by dwelling type is suggested and tested empirically the approach is based on the assumption that households choose their residential location and dwelling type in a way to maximize the communal utility the model used is the dynamic general linear expenditure system which allows determination of 1 urban housing demand by dwelling type and 2 expenditure and own and cross price elasticities compensated and uncompensated

uncertain r d backstop technology and ghgs stabilization abstract this paper analyses optimal investments in innovation when dealing with a stringent climate target and with the uncertain effectiveness of r d the innovation needed to achieve the deep cut in emissions is modeled by a backstop carbon free technology whose cost depends on r d investments to better represent the process of technological progress we assume that r d effectiveness is uncertain by means of a simple analytical model we show how accounting for the uncertainty that characterizes technological advancement yields higher investments in innovation and lower policy costs we then confirm the results via a numerical analysis performed with a stochastic version of witch an energy economy climate model the results stress the importance of a correct specification of the technological change process in economy climate models

the optimal research and development portfolio of low carbon energy technologies a study of china to support decision making for an optimal portfolio strategy for low carbon energy technology research and development r d this study proposes a dynamic two stage stochastic programming model taking into account both the uncertainty of technological change and damages of climate change based on china s economic and technology level and expert elicitation an r d investment portfolio strategy looking at three low carbon technologies carbon capture and storage ccs solar photovoltaic pv and nuclear including nine projects is investigated through the proposed model the optimized results show that the optimal r d technology portfolio is robust to different levels of risk in climate damage however the total social costs for the optimal r d technology portfolio is lowest in the medium risk of climate damage scenario under different opportunity costs the composition of the optimal r d portfolio varies however projects for each of the three technologies always constitute the optimal r d portfolio furthermore the implication is that a technology synergistic r d strategy is conducive to enhancing the level of co2 abatement and reducing the total social cost

firm incentives to promote technological change in pollution control reply abstract the process of technological change in pollution control is broken into three basic steps innovation diffusion and optimal agency response firm incentives to promote these steps are then examined under five regulatory regimes direct controls emission subsidies emission taxes free marketable permits and auctioned marketable permits on a relative basis emission taxes and auctioned permits provide the highest firm incentives to promote technological change at times free permits generate lower incentives direct controls which are common regulatory tools usually provide the lowest relative firm incentives to promote technological change

modelling intra urban location preferences under rational expectations the purpose of this paper is to 1 extend the traditional generalised linear expenditure system as it has been applied in location theory by including rational expectations in the formulation 2 rank intra urban places in accordance with households location preferences 3 investigate the impact of location preferences on housing demand and urban growth and 4 study the role of price and expenditure expectations on the formation of housing demand the theoretical model was tested for seven departments of the region of attica greece using monthly data for the period july 1977 october 1988 the full information maximum likelihood procedure was used to estimate the model the findings provide useful information including guidelines for government policies concerning income housing price and interest rate subsidies

phasing the operation mode of foreign subsidiaries reaping the benefits of multinationality through internal capital markets the lifetime of foreign equity partnerships is often limited research suggests that mncs abandon their local partners when the need for sharing ownership in foreign subsidiaries has diminished this study shows that mncs may abandon their local equity partners to reap the benefits of multinationality as mncs gain a competitive advantage from leveraging resources across borders they will initially benefit from sharing ownership with a local firm to embed their foreign subsidiaries in the local environment and access local resources more effectively later they will benefit from taking over the local partner s equity share to better embed their subsidiaries in the parent organization and transfer locally accessed resources to the mnc s other locations moderated mediation regressions provide evidence of such practice in the context of cross border transfers of capital resources this strategy seems to work as a corollary of our model panel regressions suggest that sharing ownership with local firms in a host country with a capital resource advantage is associated with appropriating more capital resources from the local debt market while abandoning these partner firms later is associated with transferring more capital resources from this host country via internal capital markets to other parts of the mnc

climate change and optimal energy technology r d policy public policy response to global climate change presents a classic problem of decision making under uncertainty theoretical work has shown that explicitly accounting for uncertainty and learning in climate change can have a large impact on optimal policy especially technology policy however theory also shows that the specific impacts of uncertainty are ambiguous in this paper we provide a framework that combines economics and decision analysis to implement probabilistic data on energy technology research and development r d policy in response to global climate change we find that given a budget constraint the composition of the optimal r d portfolio is highly diversified and robust to risk in climate damages the overall optimal investment into technical change however does depend in a non monotonic way on the risk in climate damages finally we show that in order to properly value r d abatement must be included as a recourse decision

the past is prologue moving on from culture s consequences in this article we examine the theoretical and empirical understanding of culture within the international business discipline post the publication of kirkman lowe gibson 2006 in their paper kirkman et al 2006 provide a comprehensive retrospective on the impact of hofstede s seminal publication culture s consequences in addition to looking at what followed on from hofstede they laid out a research program they believed was necessary to move the study of culture forward unfortunately in their current review published in this issue they outlined how little if any of their thoughtful guidance was taken to heart in our perspective we believe that this signals that the study and use of culture in the international business field has become stuck in a theoretical and methodological rut and more radical thinking is necessary if we are going to advance beyond more of the same science that simply reiterates repeatedly that that culture matters without any coherent advancement of the key role that it plays in the international arena

performance effects of added cultural distance in the path of international expansion the case of german multinational enterprises this paper contributes to the debate on the performance impact of added cultural distance in the multinational enterprise s mne s expansion path our research focuses on the ability of mnes to handle complexity associated with added cultural distance in international expansion and on the effect this may have on profitability we hypothesise that firms that make expansion moves involving a high level of added cultural distance per unit of time and those that expand in culturally distant countries in an irregular fashion that is with a higher variability will be less profitable we test these hypothesised relationships using detailed data on 2404 expansion moves undertaken by our panel of 91 german mnes whose expansion paths we tracked during periods ranging between 5 and 20 years

instrument choice for environmental protection when technological innovation is endogenous this paper compares qualitatively and quantitatively the welfare effects of emissions taxes auctioned emissions permits and free grandfathered permits when technological innovation is endogenous we find that there is no unambiguous case for preferring any of these policy instruments the relative welfare ranking of instruments depends on the costs of innovation the extent to which innovations can be imitated the slope and level of the marginal environmental benefit function and the number of polluting firms we illustrate the types of situations when there can be significant welfare discrepancies between the policies and when there are not

technological change and uncertainty in environmental economics abstract technological change is widely believed to play a crucial role in mastering the challenges of man made climate change the drivers and impacts of technological change have therefore become an important research issue in the field of climate economics while models to analyze the interactions between economy energy and the environment initially treated technological change as exogenous more recent modeling approaches often represent technological change as endogenously induced typically models of induced technological change in climate economics are based on perfect foresight in a deterministic world however both technological change and climate impacts are subject to large uncertainties that may substantially affect the design of efficient climate policies against this background the special issue presents five articles contributing to the study of uncertainty and technological change in climate change economics

cultural gap bridging in multinational teams multinational teams are an organizational reality but they present several challenges the literature suggests that individuals with multicultural identities are more likely to show behaviors that aim at improving intercultural interactions in multinational teams though scholars have yet to determine the precise nature of these behaviors we address this research gap in a multimethod two study design by identifying five team cultural gap bridging behaviors cgb behaviors facilitating translating integrating mediating and empathetic comforting in study 1 we draw on one qualitative and two quantitative datasets to identify within team cgb behaviors and develop a measure of cgb behaviors in study 2 drawing from two wave survey data we investigate and find support for the direct relationships between cultural identity plurality and cgb behaviors and the indirect relationships via cultural intelligence

an analysis of household mobility and tenure choice an empirical study of korea abstract this paper develops a model of households joint mobility tenure decisions which improves upon the sole existing model in two important ways first the probabilistic structure is appropriately framed to capture the simultaneity of the mobility and tenure decisions second the model is based more directly on utility maximization theory an additionally distinguishing characteristic of the model is the fact that all independent variables in the estimation are expressed in flow terms this is done in an effort to more truly reflect their importance in the decision making of the household the model is estimated using microlevel data from korea the coefficients and derived elasticities are consistent with expectations and korean households are found to behave in a manner similar to that in the united states this suggests that the basic motivations underlying households mobility tenure decisions are invariant across countries

industry wide versus firm specific uncertainty and investment british company panel data evidence this paper presents evidence on the prediction that the impacts of firm specific and industry wide uncertainty on investment will be different results show that these work in opposing directions and that the effect of industry specific uncertainty is stronger in concentrated industries

technical change and the marginal cost of abatement abstract we address one aspect of the treatment of technical change in the environmental economics literature how technical change impacts the marginal cost of abatement we review a selection of papers that employ a variety of representations of technical change and show that these representations have quite different and sometimes surprising effects on the marginal costs of pollution reductions we argue that these varied representations in fact correspond to a variety of different technology options we then present results indicating that this representation matters the impacts of technical change on the marginal cost of abatement can crucially impact policy analysis

incentives to diffuse advanced abatement technology under environmental liability law polluting firms with advanced abatement technology at their disposal have incentives or disincentives to share this technology with other polluting firms the direction and extent of those incentives depends on the liability rule applicable and the way technical change impacts marginal abatement costs we establish that incentives for diffusion are socially optimal under strict liability and socially suboptimal under negligence if technical change lowers marginal abatement costs for all levels of abatement negligence may however induce better diffusion incentives than strict liability if technical change decreases increases marginal abatement costs for low high levels of abatement

the effects of within country linguistic and religious diversity on foreign acquisitions this article explores how within country diversity of both language and religion influences the ownership structure of foreign acquisitions commentators have acknowledged the potential importance of within country diversity but to date this issue has received minimal empirical attention we propose that diversity plays two distinct roles namely diversity within the host country may be an additional source of behavioral uncertainty and information asymmetry over and above the effects arising from cross national differences moreover diversity within the home country may increase the cognitive complexity of the decision makers moderating the firm s response to the distance and diversity of the host country results based on foreign acquisitions across 67 acquirer and 69 target countries confirm both of these roles while the main focus of this article is on the role that within country diversity plays in international business decisions it also makes contributions in terms of expanding the range of dimensions of distance investigated in the cross border acquisition literature in highlighting a potentially positive role that diversity might play in such acquisitions and in providing a potential explanation for asymmetries in distance that is differences in cognitive complexity

is there a relationship between public expenditures in energy r d and carbon emissions per gdp an empirical investigation abstract energy innovation plays a crucial role in the reduction of carbon emissions in order to design climate and energy policies that promote the development deployment and diffusion of new energy technologies policy makers not only require a theoretical understanding of the energy innovation system but also empirical evidence of the effects that policy actions have had this paper focuses on public energy r d a traditional and controversial option among the various climate technology policies and empirically analyses its relationship with carbon emissions per gdp i e carbon intensity and its two components energy intensity and the carbon factor evidence of the causality links that have prevailed in 13 advanced economies over the 1980 2004 period has been obtained through dynamic panel models our findings confirm that government r d spending is not sufficient by itself to boost the energy innovation process public energy r d has been successful in improving energy efficiency at country level but it has failed to have a significant impact on the carbon factor and carbon intensity at the same time the formation of energy r d budgets is found to be significantly affected by carbon trends

learning and stock effects in environmental regulation the case of greenhouse gas emissions abstract this paper concerns the optimal regulation of greenhouse gases that lead to global climate change in particular we focus on uncertainty and learning which over time resolves uncertainty we present an empirical stochastic model of climate economy interactions and present results on the tension between postponing control until more is known vs acting now before irreversible climate change takes place uncertainty in our model is in the damage caused by global warming the results suggest that a temporary carbon tax may dominate a permanent one because a temporary tax may induce increased flexibility

transaction cost determinants and ownership based entry mode choice a meta analytical review entry mode choice is a critical ingredient of international entry strategies and has been voluminously examined in the field the findings however are very mixed especially with respect to transaction cost related factors in determining the ownership based entry mode choice this study conducted a meta analysis to quantitatively summarize the literature and empirically generalize more conclusive findings based on the 106 effect sizes of 38 empirical studies the meta analysis shows that the findings of the existing studies are moderated to varying degrees by both study setting factors and statistical artifacts although the combined overall effects of transaction cost based determinants are consistent with the predictions of transaction cost economics we extensively discuss the implications of meta analytical results especially moderating effects of location country of origin industry type and statistical artifacts highlight the measurement adequacy equivalence and multidimensionality of transaction cost determinants and present our suggestions to improve theoretical inquiries and empirical verifications on entry mode choice

national culture and international business a path forward the anniversary of kogut and singh s construct of cultural distance is a good time to reflect on this immensely popular but flawed construct assess the efficacy of the remedies offered for its reform and refinement and chart an alternative approach that represents a departure from distance as the dominant paradigm with which to view and analyze the impact of national culture on cross border business the proposed alternative a contact based framework shifts attention from what sets cultures apart towards the actual cultural interface that firms and their executives experience when participating in an international transaction with this lens the cultural exchange is regarded as an evolving interactional process of engagement which commences prior to a transaction and proceeds through the life of the inter party arrangement and beyond and whose potential to yield negative or positive outcome is subject to specific contingencies implications for theory methodology and practice are delineated

autoregressive modelling and money income causality detection abstract a step wise procedure based on granger s concept of causality and abaike s final prediction error criterion is suggested as a practical means to identify the order of lags of each variable in a multivariate autoregressive process the model seems useful because it can serve as a reduced form formulation to avoid imposing often spurious or false restrictions of the model it also provides a reasonably powerful test of causality the idea is applied to u s postwar money and income data it is found that between m1 and gnp a bivariate feedback model fits the data best between m2 and gnp a one way causal model from money to income performs better diagnostic checks applied to our model seem to indicate the adequacy of our approach

r d and abatement under environmental liability law comparing incentives under strict liability and negligence if compensation differs from harm abstract this paper analyzes equilibrium r d in pollution control and equilibrium pollution abatement by polluters who are subject to environmental liability law when the level of compensation differs from the level of environmental harm we contrast the performance of strict liability with that of the negligence rule privately optimal levels necessarily deviate from socially optimal ones under strict liability whereas private decisions are first best under negligence unless compensation is much smaller than harm it is established that the way in which privately optimal r d deviates from the first best level depends on the kind of technical change in pollution abatement counterintuitively polluters might overinvest into r d in pollution control if compensation falls short of harm and may underinvest if compensation exceeds harm

price volatility and risk exposure on market based environmental policy instruments abstract we explore the efficacy of price and quantity controls as environmental policy instruments in a stochastic setting in which agents are risk averse we demonstrate that the assumption of risk aversion may improve the performance of a tax relative to that of a system of tradable quotas and that restricting quota trade may enhance efficiency even though risk aversion in itself limits volumes of trade the government may be able to improve the performance of a tradable quota system by judicious choice of distribution and amount of initial quotas and by trading pro actively in the quota market

the effect of national culture on the choice of entry mode characteristics of national cultures have frequently been claimed to influence the selection of entry modes this article investigates this claim by developing a theoretical argument for why culture should influence the choice of entry two hypotheses are derived which relate culture to entry mode choice one focusing on the cultural distance between countries the other on attitudes towards uncertainty avoidance using a multinomial logit model and controlling for other effects the hypotheses are tested by analysing data on 228 entries into the united states market by acquisition wholly owned greenfield and joint venture empirical support for the effect of national culture on entry choice is found

the stampede toward hofstede s framework avoiding the sample design pit in cross cultural research we propose a method to design better multi country samples for international business studies using hofstede s framework and aimed at determining the effects of national culture on various business phenomena we describe typical research scenarios then develop sets of algorithms that calculate indexes reflecting the power of different samples for hypotheses testing the indexes were computed from hofstede s data then rank ordered the top multi country samples are presented in tables for selection when designing studies

investment in risky r d programs in the face of climate uncertainty we analyze how the socially optimal technology rd and that uncertainty in damages interacts with uncertainty in the returns to rd and r d that reduces the emissions to output ratio and argue that this is a good representation of r d into fossil fuel technologies for r d programs into non carbon technologies optimal investment is higher in riskier programs our empirical model indicates that the optimal investment in a risky program is about 3 1 2 times larger than in a program with certain returns for r d programs aimed at reducing emissions in fossil fuel based technologies our results show that qualitatively investment is higher in less risky programs under most uncertain damage scenarios our empirical model shows however that the risk profile of fossil fuel based r d programs generally has little quantitative impact on optimal investment the exception is that when the probability of a catastrophe inducing full abatement is very high investment is about twice as high in risky programs compared to programs with certain returns

on the sign of the investment uncertainty relationship understanding the effects of uncertainty over any decision variable has fascinated economists for a long time risk aversion and incomplete markets are likely to make the investment uncertainty relationship negative e g roger craine 1989 joseph zeira 1989 what happens in the absence of risk aversion and incomplete markets is however ambiguous richard hartman 1972 and andrew b abel 1983 1984 1985 found that in the presence of symmetric convex costs of adjustment mean preserving increases in price uncertainty raise investment of a competitive firm as long as the profit function is convex in prices on the other hand the recent literature on irreversible investment e g robert s pindyck 1988 giuseppe bertola 1988 has shown that increases in uncertainty lower investment all these results have been derived under either risk neutrality or complete markets intuition suggests that the explanation for such a difference lies with the asymmetric nature of adjustment costs in the irreversible investment case as compared with the symmetry of the adjustment cost mechanisms proposed by abel and hartman although this intuition is confirmed in this paper asymmetric adjustment costs are shown not to be sufficient to explain why the results differ in fact a more hidden but at least as important difference between these two literatures is that the former assumes perfect competition and constant returns to scale whereas the latter assumes either imperfect competition or decreasing returns to scale or both 2 the purpose of this paper is to highlight the role of the decreasing marginal return to capital assumption due to either imperfect competition or decreasing returns to scale or both in determining the effects of adjustment cost asymmetries on the sign of the response of investment to changes in uncertainty under risk neutrality for this the paper develops a simple model with a cost of adjustment mechanism general enough to consider both symmetric convexity and irreversibility as special cases one of the most important findings is the lack of robustness of the negative relationship between investment and uncertainty under asymmetric adjustment costs3 to changes in the degree of competition in fact when firms are nearly competitive the conclusion of hartman and of abel holds no matter how asymmetric adjustment costs are studying adjustment cost mechanisms has a central role in understanding the dynamics of investment and its business cycle implications but conclusive results about the sign of the instantaneous relationship between uncertainty and investment should not be department of economics columbia university new york ny 10027 i am grateful to giuseppe bertola prajit dutta glen hubbard anil kashyap richard lyons and the referees for their useful comments 1the financial literature on investment has considered risk aversion through a premium in the discount rate determined by the capm capital asset pricing model intertemporal capm or consumption capm however often this discount rate is left unchanged when studying the response of investment to uncertainty changes e g pindyck 1988 pp 974 5 thereby omitting the effect of changes in uncertainty on investment due to risk aversion and incomplete markets 2in the typical version of the irreversible investment problem there is no cost of upward adjustments thus imperfect competition and or decreasing returns to scale are required to bound the size of the firm 3in this paper asymmetric adjustment cost refers to the case in which it is more expensive to adjust downward than upward certainly the opposite case is a trivial extension of the case studied in this paper

on backstops and boomerangs environmental r d under technological uncertainty abstract in areas such as climate change the recent economic literature has been emphasizing and addressing the pervasive presence of uncertainty this paper considers a new and salient form of uncertainty namely uncertainty regarding the environmental characteristics of green innovations here rd ii a decreasing probability of finding a backstop leads to the toleration of higher pollution levels slower rd iii learning about the probability of a backstop is driven by failures only and leads to decreasing research incentives and iv small to moderate delays in the resolution of technological uncertainty do not affect the optimal policy

lost that lovin feeling the erosion of trust between small high distance partners we investigate the role of high distance in trust erosion between small partners high distance is known to hinder the formation of trust between potential partners but its role in trust erosion in established partnerships is less understood by international business scholars through a qualitative longitudinal study we extend current theory of how high distance affects the trust dynamics between cross border partners specifically we unearth three interrelated mechanisms that together explain how and why trust can erode due to high distance we show that before a partnership is formed high distance can lead partners to erroneously attribute cues to a potential partner s high quality leading to over expectations of partner performance once the partnership is operational high distance hinders actors ability to understand situational factors associated with disappointing outcomes and so they are attributed to failings of the partner at the same time distance related challenges of bounded reliability render partners reluctant to discuss partnership outcomes this can result in a vicious cycle of inertia as partners strive to protect goodwill while abandoning efforts to produce partnership outcomes because of doubts of the other s quality thus our theoretical model illustrates the limitations of trust and explains how paradoxically high distance can facilitate both trust formation and trust erosion

emission path planning based on dynamic abatement cost curve abstract global climate change is one of the most serious environmental problems that has attracted an unprecedented global attention the scientific community has recognized that human activity is mostly responsible for global climate warming therefore states participating in the united nations framework convention on climate change unfccc have initiated a series of negotiations on how to develop their own emission reduction targets however the realization of these targets is at the expense of economic development to a great extent therefore an abatement plan is necessary to decide how and when to implement emission reduction targets a marginal abatement cost curve macc often used as an important quantitative tool to estimate abatement burden or evaluate abatement performance should be considered carefully in this paper we enrich the traditional macc by introducing the concept of an immediate unit marginal abatement cost to describe its intrinsic incremental abatement difficulty this cost is proved to be agreed with the actual situation in many ways and is therefore very suitable for practical use two factor learning curve are considered in the model which can go some way in improving the performance of the revised macc using a parameterization method the original problem can be converted into a tractable nonlinear programming problem we use an algorithm to search for the approximate global optimal solution the effectiveness and the efficiency of the algorithm are discussed respectively in the results we find that the abatement path distinguishes largely under different abatement targets some plausible reasons and policy advices are given

on discrete choice models of housing demand abstract this paper explores several specifications of discrete choice models in estimating housing consumption for purposes of projection and policy simulation we view housing consumption comprehensively as it includes the choice between three types of homeownership five types of rented housing and as a ninth alternative not heading a household the familiar multinomial logit specification is rejected by several specification tests the paper therefore studies a variety of nested multinomial logit models of hierarchical choice that allow a richer substitution pattern among the very disparate housing choices enumerated above estimations of different nesting structures reveal strong and plausible differences among nesting structures

the effect of cultural distance on entry mode choice international diversification and mne performance a meta analysis although a growing literature indicates that cultural distance that is differences between national cultures is an important determinant of organizational actions and performance both empirical and theoretical concerns abound in this study the relationships of cultural distance with entry mode choice international diversification and mne performance are examined by meta analyzing data from 66 independent samples with cumulative sample sizes ranging from 2 255 to 24 152 regression results failed to provide statistical evidence of significant relationships between cultural distance and entry mode choice international diversification and mne performance the examination of moderator effects however yielded important results we found a strong negative association between cultural distance and entry mode choice for us based mnes the cultural distance international diversification relationship was negative for high technology industries while it was positive for other industries cultural distance also had a strong positive effect on mne performance for developed country investments a similar strong positive relationship was found between cultural distance and international diversification in studies with more recent samples results of this study indicate that substantial additional research is needed before the role of cultural distance is fully understood

confirmation bias in individual level perceptions of psychic distance an experimental investigation in this article we draw from social cognition theory to explore the influence of confirmation bias on perceptions of psychic distance despite the prominence of psychic distance and other forms of distance as potential predictor variables in international business ib research very little work has been done exploring the factors and processes that shape a decision maker s perceptions of distance we argue in this article that social cognition theory can help fill that void specifically we hypothesize that confirmation bias may influence managers processing of information concerning differences between cultures such a bias may cause managers to attend more to information that confirms pre existing beliefs and discount information that contradicts pre existing beliefs thus biasing their perceptions of psychic distance using an experimental approach the impact of confirmation bias on perceptions of psychic distance is confirmed in a sample of 200 australian managers the observed changes in perceptions are also associated with changes in perceptions of risk and preferences for entry modes in a hypothetical business scenario as a result this article demonstrates how the application of social psychology theories and methods can provide new theoretical perspectives to explain when how and why individual level perceptions of psychic distance might diverge from national level averages

incentives for advanced pollution abatement technology at the industry level an evaluation of policy alternatives abstract in this research we evaluate the incentive effects of five environmental policy instruments to promote the development and adoption of advanced pollution abatement technology in a heterogenous industry from most to least incentive the policy instruments can be rank ordered as follows i auctioned permits ii emissions taxes and subsidies iii issued marketable permits iv performance standards including performance standards in this list necessitates the assumption that they are differentiated between heterogeneous firms before the technology adoption in a way which replicates the initial emissions control distribution of the efficient incentive based instruments with the starting point normalized in this fashion the instrument rankings are invariant with respect to the size of firms the size of the industry or the industry s abatement cost structure

scientific progress and irreversibility an economic interpretation of the precautionary principle abstract we consider the problem of the optimal use of a good whose consumption can produce damages in the future scientific progress is made over time that provides information on the distribution of the intensity of damages we show that this progress induces earlier prevention effort only if prudence is larger than twice absolute risk aversion this paper thus identifies the class of quite restrictive but plausible conditions such that scientific uncertainties justify an immediate reduction of the consumption of a potentially toxic substance

the comparative statics of changes in risk revisited abstract in this paper we consider the problem of determining the conditions under which a change in risk increases the optimal value of a decision variable for all risk averse agents for a large class of payoff functions we obtain the least constraining necessary and sufficient condition on the change in risk for signing its effect without any additional restriction on the utility function than risk aversion it entails all existing sufficient conditions as particular cases our results are applied to the linear model which describes the standard portfolio problem the necessary and sufficient condition for unambiguous comparative statics in this class of problems is termed greater central riskiness cr it is shown that cr dominance is neither stronger nor weaker than second degree stochastic dominance journal of economic literature classification number d81

an institutional approach to cross national distance cross national distance is a key concept in the field of management previous research has conceptualized and measured cross national differences mostly in terms of dyadic cultural distance and has used the euclidean approach to measuring it in contrast our goal is to disaggregate the construct of distance by proposing a set of multidimensional measures including economic financial political administrative cultural demographic knowledge and global connectedness as well as geographic distance we ground our analysis and choice of empirical dimensions on institutional theories of national business governance and innovation systems in order to overcome the methodological limitations of the euclidean approach we calculate dyadic distances using the mahalanobis method which is scale invariant and takes into consideration the variance covariance matrix we empirically analyze four different foreign expansion choices of us companies to illustrate the importance of disaggregating the distance construct and the usefulness of our distance calculations which we make freely available to managers and scholars

innovation in pollution control comparisons of the various institutional arrangements for controlling pollutant emissions from individual sources effluent fees effluent control subsidies marketable permits and direct command and control regulation have usually focused on their static efficiency properties and institutional feasibility e g dales 1968 zerbe 1970 baumol and oates 1975 kneese and schultze 1975 marin 1978 mills and white 1978 spence and weitzman 1978 russell 1979 a relatively neglected area has been the study of how each arrangement influences innovation in pollution control a few studies e g kneese and schultze 1975 marin 1978 mills and white 1978 russell 1979 have casually claimed that the control methods that rely on economic incentives provide superior incentives for innovation but there have been few systematic studies of the question this paper provides a simple model of pollution control innovation by a profitmaximizing polluter who is subject to the various control methods the consequences of the methods will be explored in three major contexts first we assume that the polluter and the innovation is a small enough part of the overall pollution problem so that none of the important marginal conditions are changed by the innovation second we assume that the polluter and the innovation are important enough so that marginal conditions are changed by the innovations but that the governmental authority determining pollution control incentives or levels fails to make the appropriate adjustments third we again assume that the innovation causes marginal conditions to change but in this case the governmental authority makes the appropriate adjustments we use the term ratcheting to describe this last phenomenon in all cases we assume that the innovating polluter correctly predicts the reactions of the governmental authority and bases his innovation decisions on that prediction a profit maximizing entrepreneur would normally be expected to adopt any innovation that promised gains present discounted value to him in excess of initial

project management under risk using the real options approach to evaluate flexibility in r d managerial flexibility has value in the context of uncertain r d projects as management can repeatedly gather information about uncertain project and market characteristics and based on this information change its course of action this value is now well accepted and referred to as real option value we introduce in addition to the familiar real option of abandonment the option of corrective action that management can take during the project the intuition from options pricing theory is that higher uncertainty in project payoffs increases the real option value of managerial decision flexibility however r d managers face uncertainty not only in payoffs but also from many other sources we identify five example types of r d uncertainty in market payoffs project budgets product performance market requirements and project schedules how do they influence the value from managerial flexibility we find that if uncertainty is resolved or costs revenues occurafter all decisions have been made more variability may smear out contingencies and thus reduce the value of flexibility in addition variability may reduce the probability of flexibility ever being exercised which also reduces its value this result runs counter to established option pricing theory intuition and contributes to a better risk management in r d projects our model builds intuition for r d managers as to when it is and when it is not worthwhile to delay commitments for example by postponing a design freeze thus maintaining flexibility in r d projects

participation games and international environmental agreements a non parametric model abstract we examine the size of stable coalitions in a participation game that has been used to model international environmental agreements cartel formation rd based on these examples a consensus has emerged that in this kind of game the equilibrium coalition size is small except possibly when the potential benefits of cooperation are also small in this paper we develop a non parametric approach to the problem and demonstrate that the conventional wisdom is not robust in a general setting we identify conditions under which the equilibrium coalition size can be large even when potential gains are large contrary to previously examined leading special cases we show that reductions in marginal abatement costs in an international environmental game can increase equilibrium membership and we provide a measure of the smallest reduction in costs needed to support a coalition of arbitrary size

transitional politics emerging incentive based instruments in environmental regulation abstract this paper proposes a positive theory of environmental instrument choice we study a democratic society that seeks to lower the level of pollution from industrial sources to a pre specified target the target can be implemented by one of three instruments s uniform emission standards p tradeable permits and t emission taxes the conflict of interest between special interests representing polluters and the electorate is resolved by an elected politician we characterize when each of the three policy instruments is chosen in political equilibrium and show that the transition observed in many countries from s to either p or t can be understood as a natural consequence of increasingly ambitious environmental targets

tax subsidy policies in the presence of environmentally aware consumers abstract we study policy measures to improve environmental quality in the presence of environmentally aware consumers we consider two sets of policy instruments uniform policies for the firms and policies that discriminate between the firms based on their environmental quality for the latter set either the better performer is rewarded with a subsidy or the worse performer is punished with a tax we find that while a uniform subsidy policy improves average environmental quality a uniform tax policy worsens it further while a discriminatory subsidy policy reduces total pollution and enhances aggregate welfare a discriminatory tax policy may increase total pollution and may reduce aggregate welfare

monotone comparative statics under uncertainty this paper analyzes monotone comparative statics predictions in several classes of stochastic optimization problems the main results characterize necessary and sufficient conditions for comparative statics predictions to hold based on properties of primitive functions that is utility functions and probability distributions the results apply when the primitives satisfy one of the following two properties i a single crossing property which arises in applications such as portfolio investment problems and auctions or ii log supermodularity which arises in the analysis of demand functions affiliated random variables stochastic orders and orders over risk aversion

advanced solar r d combining economic analysis with expert elicitations to inform climate policy the relationship between r d investments and technical change is inherently uncertain in this paper we combine economics and decision analysis to incorporate the uncertainty of technical change into climate change policy analysis we present the results of an expert elicitation on the prospects for technical change in advanced solar photovoltaics we then use the results of the expert elicitations as inputs to the minicam integrated assessment model to derive probabilistic information about the impacts of r d investments on the costs of emissions abatement

predicting intra urban residential location preferences an application of the dynamic generalized linear expenditure system the purpose of this paper is to illustrate how the allocation models widely used in traditional demand theory may be applied to 1 evaluate future residential location preferences 2 study the effects of locational preferences on overall urban structure and growth 3 rank intra urban places in terms of basic residential locational preferences and 4 evaluate the cross locational effects of a substantial change in spatial prices total growth in housing expenditures and mortgage costs on household relocation decisions the model used in this paper is a modified version of the dynamic generalized linear expenditure system metropolitan toronto sub divided into three sub housing markets east central and west was chosen for the empirical application of the model

choosing between risky prospects the characterization of comparative statics results and location independent risk we consider expected utility maximizers choosing from a family of risky prospects and examine how choice is influenced by the decision makers attitude to risk if the family of risky prospects can be ordered so that as decision makers are more risk tolerant they choose a gamble higher in the ordering then it is natural to say that the family of risky prospects admit a comparative static result the paper characterizes when comparative static results of this sort exist an application is to propose a criterion of location independent riskiness

multi stage flexible expansion co planning under uncertainties in a combined electricity and gas market natural gas is an important fuel source in the power industry electricity and natural gas are both energy that can be directly consumed to improve the overall efficiency of the energy infrastructure it is imperative that the expansion of gas power plants electricity transmission lines and gas pipelines can be co planned the co planning process is modeled as a mixed integer nonlinear programming problem to handle conflicting objectives simultaneously we propose a novel model to identify the optimal co expansion plan in terms of social welfare to evaluate the robustness of plans under different scenarios the flexibility criterion is used to identify each plan s adaptation cost to uncertainties such as demand growth fuel cost and financial constraints etc we developed a systematic and comprehensive planning model to understand develop and optimize energy grids in order to reach higher social welfare and is therefore of great importance in terms of supporting and guiding investment decisions for the power and gas industry meanwhile we use the sequential importance sampling sis to perform scenario reduction for achieving a higher computational efficiency a comprehensive case study on the integrated ieee 14 bus and a test gas system is conducted to validate our approach

multilevel models in international business research multiple level or mixed linear modeling mlm can simultaneously test hypotheses at several levels of analysis usually two or three or control for confounding effects at one level while testing hypotheses at others advances in multi level modeling allow increased precision in quantitative international business ib research and open up new methodological and conceptual possibilities however they create new challenges and they are still not frequently used in ib research in this editorial we outline some key methodological issues for the uses of mlm in ib including criteria sample size and measure equivalence issues we then examine promising directions for future multilevel ib research considering comparative opportunities at nation multiple nation cluster and within nation region levels including large multilevel databases we also consider its promise for mne research about semi globalization interorganizational effects across nations clusters within nations and teams and subsidiaries within mnes

conceptualizing and measuring distance in international business research recurring questions and best practice guidelines distance is a central concept in international business research yet there is debate about the construct as well as its operationalization in this editorial we address three of the most important recurring questions posed by authors editors and reviewers by examining the theory methods and data of distance research we discuss 1 how to theorize on distance and 2 what method and 3 what data to use when constructing a distance index we develop practical recommendations grounded in theory illustrating and supporting them by calculating cross country distance indices for all available country pairs and two of the most used distance indices cultural and institutional we show that whereas a specific method to calculate distance may matter to some extent the choice for a specific cultural or institutional framework to measure cultural or institutional distance has a major impact on country pair distances overall this editorial highlights the importance of matching data and method to the theoretical argument

the construct of institutional distance through the lens of different institutional perspectives review analysis and recommendations this paper presents a review and critique of the 20 year old literature on institutional distance which has greatly proliferated we start with a discussion of the three institutional perspectives that have served as a theoretical foundation for this construct organizational institutionalism institutional economics and comparative institutionalism we use this as an organizing framework to describe the different ways in which institutional distance has been conceptualized and measured and to analyze the most common organizational outcomes that have been linked to institutional distance as well as the proposed explanatory mechanisms of those effects we substantiate our qualitative review with a meta analysis which synthesizes the main findings in this area of research building on our review and previous critical work we note key ambiguities in the institutional distance literature related to underlying theoretical perspectives and associated mechanisms distance versus profile effects and measurement we conclude with actionable recommendations for improving institutional distance research

incentives to diffuse advanced abatement technology under the formation of international environmental agreements we analyse the incentives for polluting firms to diffuse and adopt advanced abatement technology in a framework in which governments negotiate an international environmental agreement these incentives crucially depend on whether the underlying environmental policy instrument is an emission tax or an emission quota the results for the international setting fundamentally differ from those for the national setting that have been elaborated upon in the earlier literature in particular equilibrium diffusion and adoption of advanced abatement technology are not necessarily optimal under the tax regime and may be even lower than those under the quota regime