order flow transaction clock and normality of asset returns the goal of this paper is to show that normality of asset returns can be recovered through a stochastic time change clark 1973 addressed this issue by representing the price process as a subordinated process with volume as the lognormally distributed subordinator we extend clark s results and find the following i stochastic time changes are mathematically much less constraining than subordinators ii the cumulative number of trades is a better stochastic clock than the volume for generating virtually perfect normality in returns iii this clock can be modeled nonparametrically allowing both the time change and price processes to take the form of jump diffusions the relations among trading volume stock prices and price volatility the subject of empirical and theoretical studies over many years have lately received renewed attention with the increased availability of high frequency data a vast amount of research has focused on issues such as news arrivals volume and price changes or volatility moves usually outside any framework of general or even partial equilibrium is the normality of returns a key issue for example in the mean variance paradigm for portfolio choice or the recent study of the problems of risk management e g in value at risk verified at any time horizon the evidence accumulated from a number of studies that document the presence of leptokurtosis and skewness in the distribution of returns of a wide variety of financial assets suggests that the answer is no studies as early as for example fama 1965 showed that daily returns are more long tailed than the normal density with the distribution of returns approaching normality as the holding period is extended to one month in the same manner volatility smiles and other observed

the gender asset gap land in latin america summary the gender asset gap in latin america with respect to ownership of land is significant in few countries do women constitute even one quarter of the landowners gender inequality in land ownership is related to male preference in inheritance male privilege in marriage male bias in community and state programs of land distribution as well as gender bias in the land market with women less likely than men to be successful buyers but there are also important di erences by gender in how land is acquired inheritance is the primary means by which most women become landowners men are much more likely than women to acquire land through its distribution by communities or the state and via the market factors contributing toward a trend toward greater gender equity in land inheritance and in recent state programs are highlighted 2003 elsevier science ltd all rights reserved

a conditional variance tale from an emerging economy s freely floating exchange rate this article studies daily return and volatility dynamics in the exchange rate of an emerging market economy turkey over the recent floating period we use generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic garch and fractionally integrated garch figarch models with various error distributions findings show that a parsimonious figarch model with an asymmetric error distribution characterizes the daily turkish lira tl returns against us dollar and euro considerably well we find statistically significant asymmetry and peakedness in conditional returns and time varying volatility with long range dependence in conditional volatility long memory finding is robust to different specifications for the conditional returns as well as possible shifts in the return and volatility dynamics over sub periods results in the article show that despite the decline in volatility over the course of the recent float tl returns are still wild compared to developed economies exchange rates during the same period

ethics and law guiding the invisible hand to correct corporate social responsibility externalities tokenistic short term economic success is not good indicia of long term success sustainable business success requires sustained existence in a corporation s political economic social technological legal and environmental contexts far beyond the traditional economic focus consumers governments and public interest groups alike increasingly expect the business sector to take on more social and environmental responsibilities corporate social responsibility csr is the model in which economic social and environmental responsibilities are fulfilled simultaneously however there is insufficient empirical evidence that demonstrates genuine widespread adoption of csr in practice and its underlying reasons though research in csr has been rapidly growing its commercial reality and implications need to be further improved if it is to inspire corporations to voluntarily adopt csr in the literature carroll s four dimensional economic legal ethical and discretionary csr framework offers a theoretical basis for developing an empirically based model to explain why and how profit motivated managers take up csr voluntarily our study has developed a structural equation model to identify the key factors and their interactions that influence economically motivated managers to take on voluntary csr and validate carroll s four dimensional construct the results support carroll s four dimensional csr framework with the exception of the link pertaining to the relationship between economic and discretionary voluntary responsibility this characterises the economic reality that financial market driven economic responsibility does not automatically translate into social responsibility nevertheless the empirical results demonstrate that corporations can be led to engage in more voluntary csr activities to achieve social good when appropriate legal and ethical controls are in place

how the market values greenwashing evidence from china in china many firms advertise that they follow environmentally friendly practices to cover their true activities a practice called greenwashing which can cause the public to doubt the sincerity of greenization messages in this study i investigate how the market values greenwashing and further examine whether corporate environmental performance can explain different and asymmetric market reactions to environmentally friendly and unfriendly firms using a sample from the chinese stock market i provide strong evidence to show that greenwashing is significantly negatively associated with cumulative abnormal returns car around the exposure of greenwashing in addition corporate environmental performance is significantly positively associated with car around the exposure of greenwashing furthermore my findings suggest that corporate environmental performance has two distinct effects on car around the exposure of greenwashing the competitive effect for environmentally friendly firms and the contagious effect for potential environmental wrongdoers respectively the results are robust to various sensitivity tests

green microfinance in europe microfinance institutions mfis are alternative financial providers offering financial services to people typically excluded from the standard banking sector while most mfis are active in developing countries there is also a young and developing microfinance sector in europe however very little literature exists on this mfi segment in this paper we analyze the environmental performance of 58 european mfis our results suggest that the size of the mfi investor concern for environmental performance and to a lesser extent donor interest are closely related to the institution s environmental performance moreover providing loans larger than microcredits is linked to better environmental performance this could suggest that the additional revenues generated from these loans also called cross subsidies could help mfis to strengthen their environmental bottom line finally no evidence suggests that profit status explains environmental performance

does confucianism reduce minority shareholder expropriation evidence from china using a sample of 12 061 firm year observations from the chinese stock market for the period of 2001 2011 and geographic proximity based confucianism variables this study provides strong evidence that confucianism is significantly negatively associated with minority shareholder expropriation implying that confucianism does mitigate agency conflicts between the controlling shareholder and minority shareholders this finding suggests that confucianism has important influence on business ethics and thus can serve as an important ethical philosophy or social norm to mitigate the controlling shareholder s unethical expropriation behavior moreover my findings reveal that the nature of the ultimate owner attenuates the negative association between confucianism and minority shareholder expropriation suggesting that confucianism s negative impact on minority shareholder expropriation is less pronounced for state owned enterprises than for non state owned enterprises the above results are robust to a variety of sensitivity tests and my findings are valid after controlling for the potential endogeneity between confucianism and minority shareholder expropriation

roughing it up including jump components in the measurement modeling and forecasting of return volatility a rapidly growing literature has documented important improvements in financial return volatility measurement and forecasting via use of realized variation measures constructed from high frequency returns coupled with simple modeling procedures building on recent theoretical results in barndorff nielsen and shephard 2004a 2005 for related bi power variation measures the present paper provides a practical and robust framework for non parametrically measuring the jump component in asset return volatility in an application to the dm exchange rate the s p500 market index and the 30 year u s treasury bond yield we find that jumps are both highly prevalent and distinctly less persistent than the continuous sample path variation process moreover many jumps appear directly associated with specific macroeconomic news announcements separating jump from non jump movements in a simple but sophisticated volatility forecasting model we find that almost all of the predictability in daily weekly and monthly return volatilities comes from the non jump component our results thus set the stage for a number of interesting future econometric developments and important financial applications by separately modeling forecasting and pricing the continuous and jump components of the total return variation process

corporate social responsibility theories mapping the territory the corporate social responsibility csr field presents not only a landscape of theories but also a proliferation of approaches which are controversial complex and unclear this article tries to clarify the sit uation mapping the territory by classifying the main csr theories and related approaches in four groups 1 instrumental theories in which the corporation is seen as only an instrument for wealth creation and its social activities are only a means to achieve economic results 2 political theories which concern themselves with the power of corporations in society and a responsible use of this power in the political arena 3 integrative theories in which the corporation is focused on the satisfaction of social demands and 4 ethical theories based on ethical responsibilities of corporations to society in practice each csr theory presents four dimensions related to profits political performance social demands and ethical values the findings suggest the necessity to develop a new theory on the business and society relationship which should integrate these four dimensions

does confucianism reduce board gender diversity firm level evidence from china this study extends previous literature on the association between confucianism and corporate decisions by examining confucianism s influence on board gender diversity using a sample of chinese listed firms during the period of 2001 2011 and geographic proximity based confucianism variables i provide strong and consistent evidence to show that confucianism is significantly negatively associated with board gender diversity suggesting that the proportion of women directors in the boardroom is significantly lower for firms surrounded by strong confucianism atmosphere than for firms located in regions with weak confucianism atmosphere this finding also implies that confucian philosophical system has important impacts on business ethics and women s status in corporate governance moreover gdp per capita the proxy for economic development level in a province in which a firm is located attenuates the negative association between confucianism and board gender diversity above results are robust to different measures of confucianism and board gender diversity and are still valid after controlling for the potential endogeneity between confucianism and board gender diversity

the economic value of realized volatility using high frequency returns for option valuation many studies have documented that daily realized volatility estimates based on intraday returns provide volatility forecasts that are superior to forecasts constructed from daily returns only we investigate whether these forecasting improvements translate into economic value added

indigenous land rights in sub saharan africa appropriation security and investment demand abstract we discuss the links between rights appropriation tenure security and investment demand in sub saharan africa common assertions regarding indigenous tenure are 1 a insecurity of tenure leads to suboptimal investment incentives and 2 b appropriation of land rights in the public domain is rent dissipating we argue that land use and investment decisions among african farmers often have two motives productivity and rights appropriation the usual assertions thus seem contradictory we offer a conceptual model to show that indigenous tenure may provide equal or higher investment incentives than private rights and may promote modes of rights appropriation that are productive rather than wasteful

beyond environmental regulations exploring the potential of eco islam in boosting environmental ethics within smes in arab markets the recent global increase in environmental regulation does not necessarily signal improvement in firms ecological imprints like many markets the arab world is struggling to implement environmental compliance measures among local firms for arab countries the reliance solely on formal policies to improve local firms ecological footprints may be risky given the evident institutional challenges to enforce environmental regulations specially post the arab spring drawing from the literature highlighting the merits of combining formal and informal controls to ensure successful implementation of a strategy we argue that the emphasis for regulation must be accompanied by an emphasis for developing environmental ethics of individuals who are the expected implementers of any environmental policy in that light we propose that the eco islam phenomenon can serve as an influential and effective foundation for building organizational cultures with stronger environmental ethics among local small and medium enterprises smes we explain the underlying maxims of eco islam then conduct qualitative research among experts preaching or practicing the concept to gain better insights into the potential of leveraging it in muslim majority arab countries finally we conclude with insightful implications for local smes in the region

does religion mitigate earnings management evidence from china using a sample of 11 357 firm year observations from the chinese stock market for the period of 2001 2011 we investigate whether and how religion can mitigate earnings management specifically based on geographic proximity based religion variables we provide strong and robust evidence to show that religion is significantly negatively associated with the extent of earnings management suggesting that religion can serve as a set of social norms to mitigate corporate unethical behavior such as earnings management our findings also reveal that the negative association between religion and earnings management is less pronounced for firms with closer distance to the regulatory centers than for their counterparts implying the substitutive effects between religion and the distance to regulators the proxy for regulatory intensity on mitigating earnings management the above results are robust to different measures of earnings management various religion variables and a variety of sensitivity tests

corporate environmental responsibility in polluting industries does religion matter using a sample of chinese listed firms in polluting industries for the period of 2008 2010 we empirically investigate whether and how buddhism china s most influential religion affects corporate environmental responsibility cer in this study we measure buddhist variables as the number of buddhist monasteries within a certain radius around chinese listed firms registered addresses in addition we hand collect corporate environmental disclosure scores based on the global reporting initiative gri sustainability reporting guidelines using hand collected buddhism data and corporate environmental disclosure scores we provide strong and robust evidence that buddhism is significantly positively associated with cer this finding is consistent with the following view buddhism can serve as social norms to evoke the consciousness of social responsibility and thereof strengthen cer our findings also reveal that the positive association between buddhism and cer is attenuated for firms with higher law enforcement index the results are robust to various measures of buddhism and a variety of sensitivity tests

factors that drive chinese listed companies in voluntary disclosure of environmental information based on the institutional theory this article attempts to examine two consecutive questions regarding the impact of various factors on corporate decision in environmental information disclosure eid 1 whether or not to disclose and 2 the level of disclosure the relevance of these factors is empirically tested using data collected from publicly listed manufacturing companies from 2006 to 2008 in china some interesting findings appear we find that firms that are state owned those that operate in environmentally sensitive industries those having more industrial peers engaged in eid and those with better reputation are more likely to disclose environmental information when it comes to the content of eid variables that attempt to capture external institutional pressures exhibit either no or weak explanatory power only the variable of organizational image and reputation is demonstrated to have a significant impact on both the act and the content of eid this study provides a snapshot of the dialogues between constituencies in the organizational field and eid development

political connections and corporate environmental responsibility adopting or escaping abstract corporate environmental responsibility cer is increasingly viewed as an important business strategy by researchers investors and society as a whole while prior research has emphasized the role of social pressures firm specific factors as well as ceo characteristics in cer little attention has been paid to the impacts of political connections we propose a mechanism based framework to study how political connections affect firm s propensity to engage in cer using comprehensive environmental information disclosure data on china s listed firms augmented by unique data on political connections we find that political connections have a positive effect on cer this effect is more pronounced for state owned firms and in cities with stringent environmental regulations with respect to the channels through which political connections increase cer we further find that political connections help firms to receive government grants subsidies and tax reduction related to the environment protection and implement government environmental policies

the profits of power land rights and agricultural investment in ghana we examine the impact of ambiguous and contested land rights on investment and productivity in agriculture in akwapim ghana we show that individuals who hold powerful positions in a local political hierarchy have more secure tenure rights and that as a consequence they invest more in land fertility and have substantially higher output the intensity of investments on different plots cultivated by a given individual corresponds to that individual s security of tenure over those specific plots and in turn to the individual s position in the political hierarchy relevant to those specific plots

exponential garch modeling with realized measures of volatility we introduce the realized exponential garch model that can use multiple realized volatility measures for the modeling of a return series the model specifies the dynamic properties of both returns and realized measures and is characterized by a flexible modeling of the dependence between returns and volatility we apply the model to 27 stocks and an exchange traded fund that tracks the s p 500 index and find specifications with multiple realized measures that dominate those that rely on a single realized measure the empirical analysis suggests some convenient simplifications and highlights the advantages of the new specification

realized garch a joint model for returns and realized measures of volatility summary we introduce a new framework realized garch for the joint modeling of returns and realized measures of volatility a key feature is a measurement equation that relates the realized measure to the conditional variance of returns the measurement equation facilitates a simple modeling of the dependence between returns and future volatility realized garch models with a linear or log linear specification have many attractive features they are parsimonious simple to estimate and imply an arma structure for the conditional variance and the realized measure an empirical application with dow jones industrial average stocks and an exchange traded index fund shows that a simple realized garch structure leads to substantial improvements in the empirical fit over standard garch models that only use daily returns copyright 2011 john wiley sons ltd

does religion mitigate tunneling evidence from chinese buddhism in the chinese stock market controlling shareholders often use inter corporate loans to expropriate a great amount of cash from listed firms through a process called tunneling using a sample of 10 170 firm year observations from the chinese stock market for the period of 2001 2010 i examine whether and how buddhism china s most influential religion can mitigate tunneling in particular using firm level buddhism data measured as the number of buddhist monasteries within a certain radius around chinese listed firms registered addresses this study provides strong evidence that buddhism intensity is significantly negatively associated with tunneling this finding is consistent with the view that buddhism has important influence on corporate behavior and can serve as a set of social norms and or an alternative mechanism to mitigate controlling shareholders unethical tunneling behavior in addition my findings also reveal that the negative association between buddhism intensity and tunneling is attenuated for firms that have high analyst coverage the results are robust to various measures of buddhism intensity and a variety of sensitivity tests

does religion matter to owner manager agency costs evidence from china in china buddhism and taoism are two major religions using a sample of 10 363 firm year observations from the chinese stock market for the period of 2001 2010 i provide strong and robust evidence that religion i e buddhism and taoism on the whole is significantly negatively associated with owner manager agency costs in particular using firm level religion data measured by the number of religious sites within a radius of certain distance around a listed firm s registered address i find that religion is significantly negatively positively associated with expense ratio asset utilization ratio the positive reverse proxy for owner manager agency costs this finding is consistent with the following view religiosity has remarkable effects on the way how an individual thinks and behaves and thereof can curb managers from unethical business practices moreover my findings suggest that the negative association between religion and owner manager agency costs is attenuated for firms with strong external monitoring mechanisms such as higher marketization and high quality auditors furthermore after separating buddhism from taoism my finding indicates that above conclusions are only available for buddhism suggesting that different religions may have asymmetric influence on owner manager agency costs above results are robust to various measures of religiosity and a variety of robustness checks

do lenders value corporate social responsibility evidence from china drawing on risk mitigation theory this article examines whether the improvement of firms social performance reduces debt financing costs cdfs in china the world s largest emerging market employing both the ordinary least square ols and the two stage instrumental variable regression methods we find that improved corporate social responsibility csr reduces the cdf when firms csr investment is lower than an optimal level however this relationship is reversed after the csr investment exceeds the optimal level firms with extremely low or extremely high csr are subject to a higher cdf the results also suggest that the optimal csr level for small firms is higher than that for large firms this study is the first to document a u shaped relationship between csr and cdf and also the first to investigate this relationship within an emerging market context

land tenure and agricultural productivity in africa a comparative analysis of the economics literature and recent policy strategies and reforms summary this paper examines the convergence and divergence of results from economic studies of the relationships between land tenure security and agricultural productivity in africa and how these results have been incorporated into recent agricultural poverty alleviation and land policy documents the paper finds that there are both areas of convergence and divergence in the economics literature similarly the attention given to land tenure and its perceived effects on productivity varies considerably in the policy literature the significant heterogeneity in findings itself suggests that policy responses must pay attention to local context and the overarching macro and sectoral conditions within which tenure systems operate

disentangling the incentive and entrenchment effects of large shareholdings this article disentangles the incentive and entrenchment effects of large ownership using data for 1 301 publicly traded corporations in eight east asian economies we find that firm value increases with the cash flow ownership of the largest shareholder consistent with a positive incentive effect but firm value falls when the control rights of the largest shareholder exceed its cash flow ownership consistent with an entrenchment effect given that concentrated corporate ownership is predominant in most countries these findings have relevance for corporate governance across the world

evaluating density forecasts with applications to financial risk management density forecasting is increasingly more important and commonplace for example in financial risk management yet little attention has been given to the evaluation of density forecasts the authors develop a simple and operational framework for density forecast evaluation they illustrate the framework with a detailed application to density forecasting of asset returns in environments with time varying volatility finally the authors discuss several extensions copyright 1998 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

does religion matter in corporate decision making in america abstract we examine how corporate culture influences firm behavior prior research suggests a link between individual religiosity and risk aversion we find that this relationship also influences organizational behavior firms located in counties with higher levels of religiosity display lower degrees of risk exposure as measured by variances in equity returns or returns on assets they exhibit a lower investment rate and less growth but generate a more positive market reaction when they announce new investments finally chief executive officers are more likely to join a firm with a similar religious environment as in their previous firm when they switch employers

a stochastic volatility model with conditional skewness we develop a discrete time affine stochastic volatility model with time varying conditional skewness svs importantly we disentangle the dynamics of conditional volatility and conditional skewness in a coherent way our approach allows current asset returns to be asymmetric conditional on current factors and past information which we term contemporaneous asymmetry conditional skewness is an explicit combination of the conditional leverage effect and contemporaneous asymmetry we derive analytical formulas for various return moments that are used for generalized method of moments gmm estimation applying our approach to s p500 index daily returns and option data we show that one and two factor svs models provide a better fit for both the historical and the risk neutral distribution of returns compared to existing affine generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity garch and stochastic volatility with jumps svj models our results are not due to an overparameterization of the mod

whether top executives turnover influences environmental responsibility from the perspective of environmental information disclosure we have empirically examined the relationship between top executives turnover and the corporate environmental responsibility by identifying the influence of ten specific turnover reasons resulting in the chairman s departure and two important types of chairman s succession using a sample of 782 manufacturing listed companies across 3 years in china we find that the corporate environmental responsibility is negatively associated with the involuntary and negative turnover i e dismissal health and death and forced resignation and positively associated with improving corporate governance and not associated with the normal turnover i e retirement and contract expiration and the types of chairman s succession i e independence and internal or external promotion our study significantly contributes to research in environmental disclosure by revealing the relationship between chairman s turnover and the corporate environmental responsibility a feasible way is suggested to regulators and other stakeholders in monitoring or assessing the possible abnormality of environmental responsibility when firms experience involuntary and negative chairman s turnover in the emerging economies

early warning signals using avars of infinitely divisible garch models evidence from stock index markets classical time series models have failed to properly assess the risks that are associated with large adverse stock price behaviour this article contributes to autoregressive moving average model garch arma garch models with standard infinitely divisible innovations and assesses the performance of these models by comparing them with other time series models that have normal innovation we discuss the limitations of value at risk var and aim to develop early warning signal models using average value at risk avars based on the arma garch model with standard infinitely divisible innovations empirical results for the daily dow jones industrial average index the england financial times stock exchange 100 index and the japan nikkei 225 index reveal that estimating avars for the arma garch model with standard infinitely divisible innovations offers an improvement over prevailing models for evaluating stock market risk exposure during periods of distress in financial markets and provides a suitable early

on the normal inverse gaussian stochastic volatility model in this article the normal inverse gaussian stochastic volatility model of barndorff nielsen is extended the resulting model has a more flexible lag structure than the original one in addition the second and fourth order moments important properties of a volatility model are derived the model can be considered either as a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model with nonnormal errors or as a stochastic volatility model with an inverse gaussian distributed conditional variance a simulation study is made to investigate the performance of the maximum likelihood estimator of the model finally the model is applied to stock returns and exchange rate movements its fit to two stylized facts and its forecasting performance is compared with two other volatility models

contradictory land use plans and policies in laos tenure security and the threat of exclusion summary contradicting policies and overlapping property arrangements are common in many countries opening doors for diverse interpretations by different actors this requires better knowledge on how competing interests and actors interact and what determines the practical competition outcomes as demand for land intensifies and international actors get increasingly involved in regulating natural resources land use planning in laos provides a case in point as it aims at strengthening tenure security intensifying agriculture and sparing forest areas while other policies simultaneously promote agricultural development and agri business investment that reconfigure land use and land access through national provincial district village and household interviews we examine how different land and forest related policies interact and whether ongoing land use planning processes and land rights formalization increase tenure security we show how government policies supported by international donors and introduced to strengthen tenure rights for the rural population actually reduce villagers legally permitted agricultural areas even if district level land use regulations do not currently exclude local communities from their land land use plans lay the groundwork for potentially excluding villagers from large land areas we find that plural contradictory regulations and policies combined with existing power inequalities result in a filter mechanism that reduces the practical impact of legal instruments and safeguards aimed at strengthening the least powerful actors rights our results add to other authors arguments that political and legal changes are mediated by power relations cultural norms and economic incentives by highlighting that the duel edged rights sword may actually end up paving the way for greater state control over future benefits derived from community areas classified as forest lands this is especially relevant when preparing redd which we show is likely to weaken rather than strengthen tenure security for rural populations

land tenure and investment incentives evidence from west africa abstract the existing literature on the relationship between property rights in land and agricultural investment in africa has given results that are often confusing and contradictory i make two clarifying contributions to this literature first i pull together existing studies and investigate whether the results they find have been affected by research methods or local contexts studies with small sample sizes those that use binary investment measures and those that control for household fixed effects are less likely to find a statistically significant link between land tenure and investment self reported tenure security has been a poor predictor of investment outcomes second i test for a relationship between land tenure and agricultural investment in nine data sets from west africa while the link between tenure and investment is significant for fallow and tree planting it is less robust for labor use and other inputs such as manure or chemical fertilizer

building for the future investment land reform and the contingencies of ownership in contemporary ghana summary case studies of individual investments in tree crops and houses illustrate recent changes in social and economic differentiation among families and communities in asante region ghana and their implications for recent debates over state led land reform versus community led land reform seeking efficiency neoliberal land reforms transfer land from state to private ownership as well as tenure reforms designed to strengthen owners rights by treating communities as owners reforms benefit the poor as well as the well to do in ghana and other west african countries privatization may also work in the opposite direction reinforcing inequalities within communities and encouraging claims to land based on origin and indigeneity

state led land reform and local institutional change land titles land markets and tenure security in mexican communities summary this article focuses on the interactions between state and community mechanisms in the design and delivery of a titling program and a land market reform in rural mexico whereas the titling program did provide a greater sense of tenure security among landholders legalizing transactions has unexpectedly generated an informal land market resulting in tenure insecurity for the corresponding buyers these contrasting outcomes are not a matter of technical failure unaffordable fees or rent seeking rather they can be traced back to differentiated processes of policy delivery by the administration officials with regard to acknowledging prevailing local institutions and managing local information

the price variability volume relationship on speculative markets this paper concerns the relationship between the variability of the daily price change and the daily volume of trading on the speculative markets our work extends the theory of speculative markets in two ways first we derive from economic theory the joint probability distribution of the price change and the trading volume over any interval of time within the trading day and second we determine how this joint distribution changes as more traders enter or exit from the market the model s parameters are estimated by fiml using daily data from the 90 day t bills futures market the results of the estimation can reconcile a conflict between the price variability volume relationship for this market and the relationship obtained by previous investigators for other speculative markets this paper concerns the relationship between the variability of the daily price change and the volume of trading on speculative markets previous empirical studies 2 3 6 12 14 16 of both futures and equity markets always find a positive association between price variability as measured by the squared price change ap2 and the trading volume 2 there are two explanations for the relationship clark s 2 explanation which is secondary to his effort to explain why the probability distribution of the daily price change is leptokurtic emphasizes randomness in the number of within day transactions in clark s model the daily price change is the sum of a random number of within day price changes the variance of the daily price change is thus a random variable with a mean proportional to the mean number of daily transactions clark argues that the trading volume is related positively to the number of within day transactions and so the trading volume is related positively to the variability of the price change the second explanation is due to epps and epps 6 their model examines the mechanics of within day trading the change in the market price on each within day transaction or market clearing is the average of the changes in all of the traders reservation prices epps and epps assume there is a positive relationship between the extent to which traders disagree when they revise their reservation prices and the absolute value of the change in the market price that is an increase in the extent to which traders disagree is associated with a larger absolute price change the price variability volume relationship arises then because the volume of trading is positively related to the extent to which traders disagree when they revise their reservation prices

bridging the gap between the distribution of realized ecu volatility and arch modelling of the euro the garch nig model summary this paper bridges the gap between traditional arch modelling and recent advances on realized volatilities based on a ten year sample of five minute returns for the ecu basket currencies versus the us dollar we find that the realized volatilities constructed from the summation of the high frequency intraday squared returns conditional on the lagged squared daily returns are approximately inverse gaussian ig distributed while the distribution of the daily returns standardized by their realized volatilities is approximately normal moreover the implied daily garch model with normal inverse gaussian nig errors estimated for the ecu returns results in very accurate out of sample predictions for the three years of actual daily euro us dollar exchange rates copyright 2002 john wiley sons ltd