the generalized multinomial logit model accounting for scale and coefficient heterogeneity the mixed or heterogeneous multinomial logit mixl model has become popular in a number of fields especially marketing health economics and industrial organization in most applications of the model the vector of consumer utility weights on product attributes is assumed to have a multivariate normal mvn distribution in the population thus some consumers care more about some attributes than others and the iia property of multinomial logit mnl is avoided i e segments of consumers will tend to switch among the subset of brands that possess their most valued attributes the mixl model is also appealing because it is relatively easy to estimate recently however some researchers have argued that the mvn is a poor choice for modelling taste heterogeneity they argue that much of the heterogeneity in attribute weights is accounted for by a pure scale effect i e across consumers all attribute weights are scaled up or down in tandem this implies that choice behaviour is simply more random for some consumers than others i e holding attribute coefficients fixed the scale of their error term is greater this leads to a scale heterogeneity mnl model s mnl here we develop a generalized multinomial logit model g mnl that nests s mnl and mixl by estimating the s mnl mixl and g mnl models on 10 data sets we provide evidence on their relative performance we find that models that account for scale heterogeneity i e g mnl or s mnl are preferred to mixl by the bayes and consistent akaike information criteria in all 10 data sets accounting for scale heterogeneity enables one to account for extreme consumers who exhibit nearly lexicographic preferences as well as consumers who exhibit very random behaviour in a sense we formalize below

public private partnerships for energy efficiency projects a win win model to choose the energy performance contracting structure abstract to stimulate private sector investments and promote energy efficiency in recent years through public private partnership arrangements the public sector uses private companies the energy service company esco to perform one or more activities related to the provision of energy services and the contractual arrangements defining the contracting parties obligations and rights are traditionally based on energy performance contracting epc although epc is a valuable model for delivering public energy efficiency projects the adoption is still far from its vast potential mainly because of two unresolved issues the dilemma of equally sharing the benefits between the public and private parties so as assuring a win win condition and the lack of adequate public procedures that support the selection of the most appropriate epc schema given certain circumstances and projects characteristics the existing literature have analyzed the advantages of epc mechanism for delivering energy efficiency projects and explored the critical success factors of epc however it does not provide any solution to address the issues that hamper the adoption of epcs in public sector to fill this gap this paper proposes a model for assessing and benchmarking the net benefits of the different epc structures so as choosing the epc schema that creates a win win solution for both the esco and the government by balancing the private sector s profitability needs and the public sector s economic interests the assessment of the benefits of the epc schema for contractual parties and the benchmark among the contracts are based on an economic approach which expresses the net benefit gained by each party through the three epc contracts in monetary terms and benchmarks the three epc schema through the net present value npv method the win win condition is ensured by the contract that minimizes the difference between the net profits npv gained by the contractual parties this will support the public authority in the decision making process about the epc structure to be adopted to develop an energy efficiency project as a ppp to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed model we apply it to an energy efficiency project launched by the municipality of noci southern italy

a linguistic group decision making framework for bid evaluation in mega public projects considering carbon dioxide emissions reduction green construction is to conserve the resources and reduce the negative impact of construction activities on the environment to the maximum extent with scientific management and technological progress under the premise of ensuring the quality safety and other basic requirements recent years accompanied by the rapid development of construction industry a considerable proportion of energy and resources particularly high carbon materials is consumed in the construction activities emitting mass greenhouse gases which have a damaging impact on the environment this is especially for the mega public projects therefore under the green and sustainable perspective actions to control carbon dioxide co2 emissions in the construction industry are imperative in this case if co2 emissions reduction can be considered beforehand during the bid evaluation stage contractors will be guided by bid evaluation indicators and therefore improve their construction schemes enabling the construction phase to be green energy saving and sustainable this is because bid evaluation indicators can serve as guiding effect on the contractors given that co2 emissions are rarely given sufficient consideration in traditional bid evaluation this study conducts a systematic analysis to identify major sources of co2 in construction phase and attempts to develop a conceptual computational model in terms of co2 emission then a linguistic group decision making framework for bid evaluation in mega public projects considering co2 emissions reduction is developed in this framework entropy relative entropy the standard deviation method and weighted aggregation operators are applied to determine the indicator weights the expert weights and the information aggregation in bid evaluation decision making finally a scenario comparison between the proposed linguistic group decision making bid evaluation framework and the traditional framework is made through a case study and the scientific basis and reliability of this new framework are validated the establishment of this framework can enrich the decision making methods in construction management field and it can provide meaningful reference for owners to choose the most qualified contractors and spur contractors to improve their construction schemes enabling construction phase to be green energy saving and sustainable

the energy rebound effect in china s light industry a translog cost function approach abstract china is in its industrialization and urbanization development stage which requires strong energy support with the largest population in the world the energy endowment of china is relatively small therefore energy conservation is one of the key tools for china s sustainable development and energy security when making policies for conservation the chinese government needs to deal with rebound effect carefully in 2012 china s light industry consumed 316 million tons of coal equivalents accounting for 9 percent of the country s total energy consumption which is about the total amount of energy consumed by south korea based on the translog cost function the magnitude of rebound effect in china s light industry is estimated for the first time using the dynamic ordinary least squares and seemingly unrelated regression methods considering the asymmetric effects of energy prices on energy consumption the rebound effect is approximately 37 7 and all the inputs are substitutes except for labor and energy the different magnitude of rebound effect between light and heavy industry is discussed and some policy implications are provided for more effective energy conservation allowing for the rebound effect

review of us esco industry market trends an empirical analysis of project data abstract this comprehensive empirical analysis of us energy service company esco industry trends and performance employs two parallel analytical approaches a survey of firms to estimate total industry size and a database of 1500 esco projects from which we report target markets and typical project characteristics energy savings and customer economics we estimate that industry investment for energy efficiency related services reached us 2 billion in 2000 following a decade of strong growth esco activity is concentrated in states with high economic activity and strong policy support typical projects save 150 200 mj m2 year and are cost effective with median benefit cost ratios of 1 6 and 2 1 for institutional and private sector projects the median simple payback time spt is 7 years among institutional customers 3 years is typical in the private sector reliance on dsm incentives has decreased since 1995 preliminary evidence suggests that state enabling policies have boosted the industry in medium sized states escos have proven resilient in the face of restructuring and will probably shift toward selling energy solutions with energy efficiency part of a package we conclude that appropriate policy support both financial and non financial can jump start a viable private sector energy efficiency services industry that targets large institutional and commercial industrial customers

threshold behavior and aggregate fluctuation this paper concerns a propagation mechanism in an economy where many individuals follow a threshold rule and interact with a positive feedback we derive an asymptotic distribution of the propagation size when the number of the agents tends to infinity the propagation distribution exhibits a slower convergence to a deterministic value than it would if the agents followed a smooth adjustment policy this gives rise to significant aggregate fluctuations in a finite lumpy adjusting economy even when the agents are hit by small independent shocks

turning green into gold a framework for energy performance contracting epc in china s real estate industry abstract there is a growing interest in a sustainable built environment and green technologies are gaining worldwide attention however implementing green technologies usually requires more investment than using traditional technologies and the payback period tends to be very long in china most developers sell their properties and subsequently transfer the ownership to customers hence a crucial problem for promoting green construction is that developers cannot obtain economic profits gold from implementing green technologies meanwhile other stakeholders such as property management companies are also hesitant to adopt green technologies because of the large investment involved and their lack of experience to tackle this problem an energy performance contracting epc based framework is proposed to turn green investment into gold benefit by careful sharing of the risks existed the framework was developed by conducting a focus group meeting with three experienced representatives from developer property management company and energy service company respectively a real life case study which includes both energy efficient system retrofit and new construction is used to estimate the costs and benefits involved to demonstrate and verify the conceptual framework the results show that the proposed framework can support the application of green technologies in both types of projects economic benefits as well as environmental benefits can be gained for the project stakeholders and the whole society

menu costs and the neutrality of money a model of endogenous price adjustment under money growth is presented firms follow s s pricing policies and price revisions are imperfectly synchronized in the aggregate price stickiness disappears and money is neutral the connection between firm price adjustment and relative price variability in the presence of monetary growth is also investigated the results contrast with those obtained in models with exogenous fixed timing of price adjustment

explaining the role of incumbent utilities in sustainable energy transitions a case study of the smart grid development in china abstract smart grids sgs have been widely recognized as an enabling technology for delivering sustainable energy transitions such transitions have given rise to more complex government utility consumer relationships however these stakeholder relationships remain largely under researched this paper critically examines and explains the role of incumbent utilities in sustainable energy transitions using sg developments in china as a case study we have three major findings first china has developed an incumbent led model for deploying sgs second two incumbents the major state owned grid companies act as enablers of sg deployment they are strategic first movers and infrastructure builders of sgs they have also developed five types of networks as they increasingly reach out to other state actors businesses and electricity consumers thirdly these two grid companies also act as a fundamental block to structural changes in socio technical regimes disincentives to these large existing grid companies coupled with excessive reliance on them to provide public goods have resulted in major weaknesses in china s incumbent led model our findings have clear policy implications innovation in regulating incumbents is needed in order to provide sufficient regulatory incentives for advancing sg developments in china

monopolistic competition business cycles and the composition of aggregate demand abstract we develop a dynamic general equilibrium model with monopolistically competitive firms and endogenous markups and show the possibility of equilibria with persistent fluctuations driven by self fulfilling revisions of expectations for some parameter values such fluctuations are characterized by time series properties similar to those observed in u s postwar business cycles in contrast with the existing literature our results do not rely on the presence of increasing returns or nominal rigidities a key ingredient of the model is the link between markups and the composition of aggregate demand some econometric evidence on the latter is also reported journal of economic literature classification number d43 d58 e32

the variability of aggregate demand with s s inventory policies this paper develops a general theory of the aggregate implications of s s inventory policies it is shown that s s policies add to the variability of demand with the variance of orders exceeding the variance of sales overall the s s theory contradicts the widely held notion that retail inventories act as a buffer protecting manufacturers from fluctuating sales in 1951 arrow harris and marschak 3 introduced the s s form of inventory policy the policies are designed for retailers of finished goods who face economies of scale when placing orders with their suppliers to pursue an s s inventory policy the retailer establishes a lower stock point s and an upper stock point s no order is placed until inventories fall to s or below whereupon they are restored to the maximum of s a general proof of the optimality of these s s inventory policies was provided by scarf 13 at the microeconomic level the model has been extensively investigated formulae are available to compute optimal policies e g ehrhardt 6 and these policies are xidely used in industry e g schwartz ed 14 in addition the model has been extended to increasingly complex demand environments e g karlin and fabens 11 in contrast little is known about the macroeconomic implications of s s policies several recent papers have begun to correct this deficiency akerlof has suggested that pursuit of constant threshold money holding policies of the s s variety might be responsible for the observed low short run income elasticity of the demand for money akerlof 1 and akerlof and milbourne 2 in the operations research literature ehrhardt schultz and wagner 7 analyzed the demand environment of a wholesaler supplying several retailers they required that the distinct retailers have independent sales ruling out the analysis of common factors in sales finally simulation results of blinder 4 suggested a role for the s s model in understanding retail sector inventories however the theoretical difficulties with the model remained unresolved blinder commented if firms have a technology that makes the s s rule optimal aggregation across firms is inherently difficult indeed it is precisely this difficulty which has prevented the s s model from being used in empirical work to date blinder 4 p 459 in this paper we present a general theory of the aggregate implications of s s policies our central finding is that s s policies add to the variability of demand with the variance of orders exceeding the variance of sales this result holds even in the presence of common factors in retail sales in addition a close connection

promotion of energy conservation in developing countries through the combination of esco and cdm a case study of introducing distributed energy resources into chinese urban areas the implementation of an energy service company esco project in developing countries may result not only in reduced energy cost but also in considerable environmental benefits including the reduction of co2 emissions which can be assessed in an economic manner under the clean development mechanism cdm scheme in this way the economic and environmental benefits of energy conservation activities can be enjoyed by both the investor and the end user which can reduce the investment risk and realize a rational profit allocation this study presents a numerical analysis of the introduction of distributed energy resources der into a chinese urban area an optimization model is developed to determine the energy system combination under the constraints on the electrical and thermal balances and equipment availability according to the simulation results the introduction of der systems possesses considerable potential to reduce co2 emissions especially when considering that the economic profit of the co2 credit will increase the incentive to adopt der systems to an even greater extent furthermore by sharing the energy cost savings with the investors under an esco framework the investment risk can be further reduced and the conditions required for the project to qualify for cdm can be relaxed

aggregation and irrelevance in multi sector models abstract this paper studies the ability of input output relationships to generate fluctuations in aggregate output in several multi sector models including that of long and plosser 1983 in these models the manufacture of each sector s output depends on other sectors for materials these interconnections provide a mechanism for transmission of shocks across sectors and over time we ask how aggregates from these multi sector models behave relative to single sector models we provide conditions under which the second moment properties of aggregates in these models are the same as their single sector counterparts we further demonstrate that a broad class of input output structures generate aggregates with identical second moment properties and that the input output structures in this class provide a poor amplification mechanism for sector shocks

dynamic s s economies in this paper the authors provide a framework to study the aggregate dynamic behavior of an economy where individual units follow s s policies and are subject to aggregate and idiosyncratic shocks they characterize structural and stochastic heterogeneities that ensure convergence of the economy s aggregate to that of its stochastic frictionless counterpart determine the speed at which convergence takes place and describe the transitional dynamics of this economy they study the evolution of the economy s aggregate and the evolution of the difference between this aggregate and that of the difference between this aggregate and that of an economy without microeconomic friction where the latter pertains to a situation where individual units adjust with no delay to all shocks copyright 1991 by the econometric society

equilibrium selection in imperfectly competitive economies with multiple equilibria this paper investigates the selection of an equilibrium in an economy with multiple pareto ranked nash equilibria a history dependent selection criterion is proposed which induces correlated behavior in equilibrium even though agents are playing one shot games and disturbances are not correlated over time the model economy may experience prolonged periods in which a low productivity technology is in use and then as a consequence of a large real disturbance may switch to an alternative equilibrium in which a high productivity technology is utilized thus the model qualitatively matches observations of serially correlated movements in output and employment and generates procyclical productivity though there are no exogenous technology shocks copyright 1994 by royal economic society

what encourages local authorities to engage with energy performance contracting for retrofitting evidence from german municipalities municipalities aiming at mitigating climate change by implementing new energy efficiency technologies face budgetary and capacity constraints outsourcing through energy service contracting could provide a solution this paper reports results from a survey of 1298 municipalities concerning barriers to retrofitting public street lighting and the possible role of energy service contracting to overcome these barriers using a logistic regression analysis the authors investigate determinants of opting for energy service contracts in the specific context of led retrofits results point to an advantage of outsourcing in a financially and capacity constrained environment which corresponds with the main reasons for engaging in contracting minimising investments and financial risks however municipalities often do not fully grasp the risks associated with retrofitting especially using a novel technology such as led in relation to that they underestimate the risk reduction potential of energy performance contracts epc previous experience with outsourcing increases the probability to engage in servitization although certain existing partnerships particularly with utilities prevent municipalities from considering energy performance contracts interestingly engaging an energy consultant has a negative propensity to use energy service contracts while pre negotiated standardised contracts for energy performance contracts have a positive influence

micro shocks and aggregate risk the paper presents a micro shock explanation of aggregate risk shocks are independent over agents and equilibria are always unique it is shown that any amount of aggregate risk can be generated by games in which shocks to players are independent explicit examples are given some of which elaborate on examples in the literature implications are drawn for factor analytic methods of extracting aggregate shocks

aggregation and optimization with state dependent pricing the literature on the aggregation of s s policies has ignored the impact of aggregate behavior on the individual s optimization problem in the case of pricing the feedback effects are clear not only do pricing strategies determine the evolution of the price level but the evolution of the price level also influences the optimal pricing strategies in this paper we provide a consistent treatment of aggregation and optimization we use this model to analyze three issues in the menu cost pricing literature the relationship between strategic complementarity and the real effects of money the relationship between the variance of the money supply and the correlation between money and output and the relationship between the cost of price adjustment and the size of price adjustment questions concerning the dynamics of aggregate variables such as prices employment investment and consumption represent the core of business cycle analysis one striking feature of these variables is the radical difference between properties of these aggregates and the nature of the individual behavior that underlies them the behavior of a firm s prices investment and employment and the behavior of an individual s consumption all involve frictional elements that lead to discrete adjustment at the microeconomic level heterogeneity among individuals however tends to smooth the behavior of the corresponding aggregates in recent years a large body of research has developed to examine the manner in which microeconomic frictions influence aggregate dynamics one of the centerpieces of this research has been the s s model developed by arrow harris and marschak 1951 the key element of this model is the state dependence of individual decisions agents act when a state variable crosses some critical threshold which balances the cost and benefits of adjustment the aggregate implications of this form of microeconomic behavior have been analyzed by blinder 1981 caplin 1985 and mosser 1991 in the context of inventory dynamics by caplin and spulber 1987 caballero and engel 1991 1993 and caplin and leahy 1991 in the context of prices and by bertola and caballero 1990 caballero 1993 and eberly 1994 in the context of con sumer durables one of the most limiting aspects of these models is that they focus exclusively on the impact that microeconomic inertia has on aggregate dynamics they 1we would like to thank michael harrison loannis karatzas john leahy sr andreu mas colell a co editor and four anonymous referees for helpful discussions and comments and the national science foundation and the sloan foundation for financial support

multiple expectational equilibria under monopolistic competition this paper shows that a monopolistically competitive economy with real investment can have multiple rational expectations equilibria one is associated with entrepreneurs optimistic expectations about future demand another with entrepreneurs pessimism it also shows that an optimistic expectational equilibrium pareto dominates a pessimistic equilibrium an investment subsidy can be beneficial both by reducing the original underinvestment distortion and by changing firms expectations from pessimistic to optimistic the most important assumption is increasing returns to scale and monopolistic competition makes increasing returns consistent with each producer s optimization

the choice of energy saving modes for an energy intensive manufacturer considering non energy benefits in practice energy intensive manufacturers have two main options when improving their energy efficiency design and implement energy efficiency projects on their own we call this self saving or enter into an energy performance contracting epc which mainly includes shared savings and guaranteed savings in this paper we will discuss an energy intensive manufacturer facing self saving and shared savings options and how this manufacturer chooses the optimal energy saving mode when non energy benefits are considered we only consider costs and profit as non energy benefits and formulate an optimization model of self saving and a stackelberg game model of shared savings from our model analysis when considering only energy savings we find that the optimal unit savings has a monotonic impact on the optimal profit of the manufacturer our results indicate that the manufacturer will prefer the second option to the first when the investment cost factor ratio of the energy service company esco to the manufacturer is small otherwise the manufacturer will prefer the first to the second furthermore when considering non energy benefits we find that the results change in some cases

small menu costs and large business cycles a macroeconomic model of monopoly i introduction the conflict between modern neoclassical and traditional keynesian theories of the business cycle centers upon the pricing mechanism in neoclassical models prices are fully flexible they represent the continuous optimization of economic agents and the continuous intersection of supply and demand in keynesian models prices are often assumed to be sticky they do not necessarily equilibrate all markets at all times one of the reasons for the resurgence of the equilibrium approach to macroeconomics has been the absence of a theoretical underpinning for this keynesian price stickiness this note shows that sticky prices can be both privately efficient and socially inefficient the business cycle results from the suboptimal adjustment of prices in response to a demand shock to the extent that policy can stabilize aggregate demand it can mitigate the social loss due to this suboptimal adjustment in some keynesian models prices are simply exogenously fixed 2 in others agents must set their prices in advance of the transaction date the act of altering a posted price is certainly costly these costs include such items as printing new catalogs and informing salesmen of the new price yet these menu costs are small and therefore generally perceived as providing only a weak foundation for these fixed price models however this inference is flawed small menu costs can cause large welfare losses the claim that price adjustment costs are small does not rebut the claim that they are central to understanding economic fluctuations

towards a sustainable society the status and future of energy performance contracting in china abstract associated with the rapid economic growth last decades have witnessed significant increases of both energy production and energy consumption in china it is also recognized that the air pollutants emissions brought by excessive fossil energy consumptions have caused serious environmental problems it is imperative to save energy and reduce emissions in china as an innovative market mechanism energy performance contracting epc can effectively reduce the energy consumption china has released a series of laws polices regulations and plans that include epc related contents due to the massive demand as well as the facilitation efforts from the governments epc has developed rapidly in china for instance the number of employees the aggregate investment and the total output value of energy service companies increased by 31 8 times 56 times and 73 2 times between 2005 and 2013 the evolution of policy system of epc in china is examined in this study the results show that legal protection policy guidance and fiscal incentives are main measures to promote the development of epc these policies showcase china s efforts on achieving energy conservation enhancing energy efficiency and improving environmental performance by encouraging the implementation of epc however the analysis also reveals some existing issues further development of epc depends on a number of factors such as a complete legal security system a mature market mechanism flexible economic incentives and the specific development plan for epc the experiences gained in china are helpful for promoting the development of epc industry especially in the developing countries

real business cycles in this paper we demonstrate how certain very ordinary economic principles lead maximizing individuals to choose consumption production plans that display many of the characteristics commonly associated with business cycles our explanation is entirely consistent with i rational expectations ii complete current information iii stable preferences iv no technological change v no long lived commodities vi no frictions or adjustment costs vii no government viii no money and ix no serial dependence in the stochastic elements of the environment we also provide a completely worked out example of the type of artificial economy we have in mind the time series properties of the example exhibit some major features of observed business cycles although this type of model may not be capable of explaining all of the regularities in actual business cycles we believe that it provides a useful well defined benchmark for assessing the relative importance of factors e g monetary disturbances