the ellsberg paradox and risk aversion an anticipated utility approach the paper describes a decision process under which it is rational to prefer a lottery with known probabilities to a similar ambiguous lottery where the decision maker does not know the exact values of the probabilities the ellsberg paradox this is done by modeling ambiguous lotteries as two stage lotteries by assuming the independence axiom without the reduction of compound lotteries axiom and by using the anticipated utility functional this paper also gives conditions under which less ambiguity is preferred and presents some comparative statics analysis as well as some inter personal comparisons finally it proves that within the anticipated utility framework risk and ambiguity are almost identical copyright 1987 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

does the preference reversal phenomenon necessarily contradict the independence axiom one of the most puzzling paradoxes in decision theory is the preference reversal phenomenon this phenomenon seems to contradict the transitivity axiom for a long time one of the cornerstones of utility theory this paradox is established whenever a decision maker prefers lottery x to lottery y but is willing to put a lower selling price on x than on y such experiments first reported by harold lindman 1971 and sarah lichtenstein and paul slovic 1971 were repeated by david grether and charles plott 1979 werner pommerehne et al 1982 and robert reilly 1982 although the later researchers improved the mechanism through which the selling price emerges they all found systematic reversals a new approach to this problem was developed by charles holt 1986 and edi karni and zvi safra 1987 from two different starting points these authors showed that the preference reversal phenomenon does not necessarily prove a violation of the transitivity axiom as it may contradict the independence axiom this implies that people do not maximize expected utility but in that case the preference reversal phenomenon becomes just another evidence against expected utility theory but not against the transitivity axiom these results have their own disadvantages although the independence axiom is not as fundamental as transitivity it is nevertheless very appealing on normative grounds of course the preference reversal phenomenon necessarily contradicts at least one of the assumptions of expected utility theory but empirical evidence shows that despite its normative appeal violations of the reduction of compound lotteries axiom may happen see for example joshua ronen 1971 and doug snowball and clif brown 1979 in this paper i therefore suggest a decision mechanism for the preference reversals lotteries which is transitive and satisfies the independence axiom but not the reduction axiom

renewable resource economists and policy what differences have we made abstract this paper surveys developments in fisheries economics and fisheries policy over the past half century early work clarified the nature of the economic issues associated with open access laying the groundwork for changes in policies after coastal nations expanded their jurisdictions in 1976 perhaps the most important point made by economists is that property rights matter and that open access conditions create economic as well as biological problems the policy process has begun to create property rights systems although many of the world s fisheries still operate under mixed systems of regulations and open access incentives

evaluating the impact of individual fishing quotas ifqs on the technical efficiency and composition of the us gulf of mexico red snapper commercial fishing fleet this study examines the impact of individual fishing quotas ifqs on the technical efficiency te and composition of the gulf of mexico red snapper commercial fishing fleet employing a parametric stochastic distance frontier framework we find that ifqs improved the te of the vertical line and bottom longline fleets our results suggest that the observed te gains were mainly driven by the retirement of less efficient vessels and to a lesser extent by efficiency gains of the remaining vessels we also document changes in output and input distance elasticities and in returns to scale following the introduction of ifqs the paper also investigates the impact of regulations and weather on productivity and the effect of crowding on te policy implications stemming from these results are also discussed

private property and economic efficiency a study of a common pool resource abstract the british columbia halibut fishery provides a natural experiment of the effects of privatizing the commons using firm level data from the fishery 2 years before private harvesting rights were introduced the year they were implemented and 3 years afterward a stochastic frontier is estimated to test for changes in technical allocative and economic efficiency the study indicates that 1 the short run efficiency gains from privatization may take several years to materialize and can be compromised by restrictions on transferability duration and divisibility of the property right 2 substantial long run gains in efficiency can be jeopardized by preexisting regulations and the bundling of the property right to the capital stock and 3 the gains from privatization are not just in terms of cost efficiency but include important benefits in revenue and product form

delayed agreements and nonexpected utility the unexplained occurrence of inefficient delays in reaching agreement is known in the economics literature as the hicks paradox this paper describes a strategic situation in which players may play a simultaneous move game either before or after a move of nature the structure is such that if the players were expected utility maximizers they would be indifferent over the order of play however if at least one of the players is a nonexpected utility maximizer for example if player one has preferences over lotteries which exhibit betweenness and fanning out such a player may strictly prefer to wait before playing the game if both players exhibit fanning out and betweenness then there exist games in which both prefer to delay agreement

correlated equilibrium as an expression of bayesian rationality if it is common knowledge that the players in a game are bayesian utility maximizers who treat uncertainty about other players actions like any other uncertainty then the outcome is necessarily a correlated equilibrium random strategies appear as an expression of each player s uncertainty about what the others will do not as the result of willful randomization use is made of the common prior assumption according to which differences in probability assessments by different individuals are due to the different information that they have where information may be interpreted broadly to include experience upbringing and genetic makeup copyright 1987 by the econometric society

existence and dynamic consistency of nash equilibrium with non expected utility preferences sufficient conditions for the existence of a nash equilibrium are given when preferences may violate the reduction of compound lotteries assumption rcla without rcla decision makers may not be indifferent between compound lotteries which have the same probabilities of final outcomes therefore the conditions depend on how players perceive the game whether they view themselves as moving first or second we also review conditions under which the equilibria will be dynamically consistent

capacity and capacity utilization in common pool resource industries excess capacity poses one of the most pressingproblems that arise when industries exploitcommon pool natural resources it entailsover investment in the capital stock andexcessive use of variable inputs and placesadditional exploitation pressures on theresource stocks confusion persists over theappropriate definition and measurement ofcapacity and capacity utilization for theseindustries but understanding capacity and itsmeasurement is necessary to properly design acapacity management program this paperaddresses these issues by overviewing theconceptual and theoretical bases for capacityand capacity utilization measurement identifying specific problems for common poolresources outlining alternative methodologiesfor their measurement and illustrating the useof these definitions and measurement methods ina fisheries case study

dynamic consistency revelations in auctions and the structure of preferences analyzing the optimal bidding behaviour in ascending bid auctions and second price sealed bid auctions with independent private values we show that expected utility maximizing behaviour is equivalent to a dynamically consistent bidding in ascending bid auctions b the equivalence of the optimal bids in ascending bid auctions and in second price sealed bid auctions c bidding the value of the object in second price sealed bid auctions in addition the optimal bid in ascending bid auctions equals the value of the object if and only if the bidder s preferences on lotteries are both quasi concave and quasi convex

making book against oneself the independence axiom and nonlinear utility theory an individual with known preferences over lotteries can be led to accept random wealth distributions different from his initial endowment by a sequential process in which some uncertainty is resolved and he is offered a new lottery in place of the remaining uncertainty this paper examines the restrictions that can be placed on an individual s preferences by axioms that stipulate that such a process not be able to generate a new wealth distribution that is prima facie inferior to the original the relationship of these axioms to the independence axiom of von neumann and morgenstern and to the quasi convexity of preferences in the wealth distribution are explored

neo liberalism and its impact on overfishing and overcapitalisation in the marine fisheries of chile mexico and peru abstract the linkages between neo liberalism and the fisheries sector in three of latin america s principal fishing nations are examined the paper shows how macroeconomic policies have not only re inforced the sector s traditional export orientation but also permitted increased private participation in harvesting and processing production and export growth was facilitated by the absence of an effective regulatory framework as the belief that fish stocks were plenteous following the designation of 200 mile economic exclusion zones in the 1970s encouraged governments to permit open access fisheries regimes the belated recognition that there were indeed limits to growth spawned a series of fisheries laws in the early 1990s which have sought to re regulate the sector to date these efforts have been largely unsuccessful and the principal regional fisheries are presently both overcapitalised and dangerously overfished

equilibrium without independence abstract because players whose preferences violate the von neumann morgenstern independence axiom may be unwilling to randomize as mixed strategy nash equilibrium would require a nash equilibrium may not exist without independence this paper generalizes nash s definition of equilibrium retaining its rational expectations spirit but relaxing its requirement that a player must bear as much uncertainty about his own strategy choice as other players do the resulting notion equilibrium in beliefs is equivalent to nash equilibrium when independence is satisfied but exists without independence this makes it possible to study the robustness of equilibrium comparative statics results to violations of independence

prospect theory in a dynamic game theory and evidence from online pay per bid auctions abundant evidence exists that expected utility theory does not adequately describe decision making under risk although prospect theory is a popular alternative it is rarely applied in strategic situations in which risk arises through individual interactions this study fills this research gap by incorporating prospect theory preferences into a dynamic game theoretic model using a large field data set from multiple online pay per bid auction sites the authors empirically show that their proposed model with prospect theory preferences makes a better out of sample prediction than a corresponding expected utility model prospect theory also provides a unified explanation for two behavioral anomalies average auctioneer revenues above current retail prices and the sunk cost fallacy the empirical results indicate that bidders are loss averse and overweight small probabilities such that the expected revenue of the auction exceeds the current retail price by 25 46 the authors illustrate and empirically confirm a managerial implication for how an auctioneer can increase revenue by changing the details of the auction design

some empirical tests of the theory of arbitrage pricing we estimate the parameters of ross s arbitrage pricing theory apt using daily return data during the 1963 78 period we compare the evidence on the apt and the capital asset pricing model capm as implemented by market indices and find that the apt performs well the theory is further supported in that estimated expected returns depend on estimated factor loadings and variables such as own variance and firm size do not contribute additional explanatory power to that of the factor loadings

technical efficiency of alternative farming systems the case of greek organic and conventional olive growing farms abstract olive growing is a major farming activity in greek agriculture this paper analyzes empirically the technical efficiency of organic and conventional olive growing farms using a stochastic production frontier methodology and a translog functional specification findings indicate that the organic olive growing farms examined exhibit a higher degree of technical efficiency relative to their production frontier than do conventional olive growing farms reasons may include lower profit margins and restrictions on inputs permitted thus forcing organic farmers to be more cautious with input use however both input and output oriented technical efficiency scores are still relatively low for both types of olive farming thus there is considerable scope for cost reducing and farm income improvement in both farming modes this could prove crucial for the long run viability and the future course of the sector

mergers and technical efficiency in spanish savings banks a stochastic distance function approach abstract the aim of this paper is to test the temporal variation of technical efficiency of spanish savings banks during the period 1985 1998 furthermore we test whether merged and non merged firms have different levels and temporal patterns of technical efficiency a stochastic output distance function r w shephard theory of cost and production functions princeton university press princeton nj is employed to accommodate multiple output technology the distance function provides the advantage that it does not need information about prices so it can accommodate the multi product nature of the financial sector only using the quantities as data an important point when the assumptions about perfectly competitive markets are unlikely to be met the temporal variation of efficiency is modeled extending the battese and coelli journal of productivity analysis 3 1992 153 169 approach in two ways relaxing the monotonicity of the temporal variation pattern of the efficiency term and allowing for different patterns of efficiency change between merged and non merged firms

frontier estimation and firm specific inefficiency measures in the presence of heteroscedasticity the purpose of this article is to illustrate a straightforward and useful method for addressing the problem of heteroscedasticity in the estimation of frontiers a heteroscedastic cost frontier model is developed and estimated using bank cost data similar to that used by ferrier and lovell our results show dramatic changes in the estimated cost frontier and in the inefficiency measures when accounting for heteroscedasticity in the estimation process we find that the rankings of firms by their inefficiency measures is affected markedly by the correction for heteroscedasticity but not by alternative distributional assumptions about the one sided error term

choice under uncertainty problems solved and unsolved ffifteen years ago the theory of choice under uncertainty could be considered one of the success stories of economic analysis it rested on solid axiomatic foundations it had seen important breakthroughs in the analytics of risk risk aversion and their applications to economic issues and it stood ready to provide the theoretical underpinnings for the newly emerging information revolution in economics 1 today choice under uncertainty is a field in flux the standard theory is being challenged on several grounds from both within and outside economics the nature of these challenges and of our profession s responses to them is the topic of this paper

markets and rent dissipation in regulated open access fisheries abstract using a model of regulated open access resource use with markets we illustrate the potential complexity of interactions between markets product quality excess effort and regulatory behavior in fisheries our model assumes two product types one of which is processed and storable the model describes the equilibrium that results when effort responds to open access incentives and when regulators respond to effort growth by mitigating its potential harmful effects on biomass safety we use numerical simulations to demonstrate a mechanism by which market growth leads to the diversion of raw inputs into the inherently inferior market the result is a scenario in which rents are dissipated not only because excessive inputs raise costs but also because inferior product types reduce revenues we conclude with an illustrative decomposition of rent gains into revenue and cost savings gains from rationalizing a hypothetical fishery demonstrating the potential significance of market side rents

multi output nonfrontier primal measures of capacity and capacity utilization this article implements an econometric approach for generating primal capacity output and utilization measures for fisheries in situations where regulatory environmental and resource conditions affect catch levels but are not independently identified in the data frontier based capacity models may interpret such impacts as production inefficiency however if such inefficiencies are unlikely to be eliminated the implied potential output increases may be unrealistic we develop a multi output multi input stochastic transformation function framework that permits various assumptions about how output composition may change when operating at full capacity we apply our model to catcher processor vessels in the alaskan pollock fishery

assessing efficiency gains from individual transferable quotas an application to the mid atlantic surf clam and ocean quahog fishery delayed fishing fleet restructuring complicates the assessment of efficiency gains from individual transferable quota itq fisheries management programs this article presents a methodology to estimate harvest sector efficiency gains in lieu of incomplete fleet restructuring the methodology is applied to assess the efficiency gains in the mid atlantic surf clam and ocean quahog fishery itq program while roughly 128 vessels harvested clams under the previous management regime the analysis suggests that 21 25 vessels will remain under ltqs the efficiency gains are estimated to be between 11 1 million and 12 8 million annually 1990 dollars

evaluating tradable property rights for natural resources the role of strategic entry and exit this paper presents an econometric approach to the evaluation of environmental regulation using tradable property rights existing empirical research on this issue which compares overall industry efficiency before and after the introduction of new regulations conflates two distinct phenomena efficiency changes due to exit of excess capital and changes in the efficiency of individual firms because the regulatory process induces firms of different types to enter and exit the industry at different rates the true efficiency and equity effects of tradable property rights cannot be assessed without correcting for these changes in sample composition this paper examines the impact of regulatory change in the mid atlantic surf clam fishery using an econometric model that separates its effects on industry structure and vessel efficiency the analysis finds that contrary to widely held belief tradable property rights did not disproportionately benefit either large fishing firms or highly integrated firms

arbitrage pricing theory and utility stock returns this paper presents some new evidence that arbitrage pricing theory may lead to different and better estimates of expected return than the capital asset pricing model particularly in the case of utility stock returns results for monthly portfolio returns for 1971 1979 lead to the conclusion that regulators should not adopt the single factor risk approach of the capm as the principal measure of risk but give greater weight to apt whose multiple factors provide a better indication of asset risk and a better estimate of expected return notwithstanding initial skepticism and recent challenges the capital asset pricing model capm has been used to develop project screening rates value companies measure the impact of policy change on risk and construct portfolios recently the federal energy regulatory commission ferc proposed it as the principal measure of risk for the electric utilities it regulates it would be ironic for acceptance of capm by policymakers to occur just as arbitrage pricing theory apt threatens to replace it as an explanation of the relationship between return and risk and it would be a pity if ferc were to adopt the single risk factor approach of capm when it could be demonstrated that the multiple factors of apt provide a better indication of asset risk and a better estimate of expected return this paper presents some new evidence that apt may lead to different and better estimates of expected return than capm and that it may be more helpful to policymakers as a result we describe capm and apt note work done by others show how estimates of required returns for utilities developed by applying each model may differ and finally report the evidence that convinces us that if one model is to be relied upon for policy purposes apt would be the better choice

excess returns of industrial stocks and the real estate factor 1 introduction for more than three decades numerous studies have been devoted to capital asset pricing issues identifying key factors influencing returns on capital assets remains the major focus of the studies according to the first important asset pricing theory the capital asset pricing model capm of sharpe 1964 and lintner 1965 there is a positive linear relationship between expected stock returns and market betas this single factor model is theoretically challenged by the arbitrage pricing theory apt developed by ross 1976 the apt provides a theoretical framework to identify more macro factors that have significant explanatory power for stock returns roll and ross 1980 chen 1983 bower bower and logue 1984 and chen roll and ross 1986 in order to be included in a multifactor model a factor must represent a source of nondiversifiable or systematic risk in addition to theoretical challenges the evidence of many empirical studies casts doubts on the adequacy of the long existing capm for example the findings of fama and french 1996 suggest that ps alone cannot explain expected returns on common stocks meantime other macro factors related to the bond market such as unanticipated changes in the term structure chen roll and ross 1986 are used to explain stock returns in recent years more risk factors have been suggested in the literature for example in their time series study about common risk factors in the returns on common stocks fama and french 1993 argue that there are three stock market factors an overall market factor a size factor stock price times number of shares and a book to market equity factor that have a significant impact on stock returns in addition two bond market factors the term structure and risk factors can capture common variation in stock and bond returns fama and french 1993 similar to fama and french s 1993 multifactor models the present study uses all three stock market factors an overall stock market factor a size factor and a book to market equity factor two bond market factors related to maturity and default risks and a real estate market factor the reason for introducing a new risk factor real estate market factor although not so obvious is engendered by the theoretical spirit of the apt real estate is a major asset class and as almost all firms have operating expenses under this category it does not matter if the properties are acquired or rented according to zeckhauser and silverman 1983 a significant portion of corporate assets on average as high as 25 is real estate related changes in real estate market value therefore potentially have a direct impact on the value of corporate assets and operating expenditures if this impact is significant as are other systematic risk factors the real estate market factor must play an important role in stock pricing in addition the real estate market risk is a macro factor therefore results about this factor do not have any interpretation problems that are associated with firm specific variables in order to identify significant factors in explaining returns for industrial stocks this study estimates various models based on the following six risk factors an overall stock market factor a size factor a book to market equity factor a term structure factor a default risk factor and an unsecuritized real estate market factor results of this study provide some empirical evidence about the significance of the six risk factors on excess returns for industrial stocks in addition this study also investigates how the inclusion of additional risk factors for example the inclusion of the bond market factors or the real estate market factor in the single market factor model increases the explanatory power of the model the remainder of this study is organized as follows section 2 describes the data and methodology section 3 presents the empirical results and section 4 contains the conclusions

resource rent in individual quota fisheries traditional fisheries management schemes generate incentives for vessels to maximize catch resulting in rent dissipation and overcapacity individual vessel quota management schemes change the incentives to maximize profit and have the potential to generate resource rent and reduce capacity an interesting question is whether it is the changed incentives due to individual quota or the capacity reduction due to transferability of individual quota that is most important in generating rent in this study a cost function approach is used to model and measure rent generated and potential rent in a fishery managed with individual vessel quotas