testing dependence between gdp and tourism s growth rates abstract the main aim of this paper is to link the economic behaviour and statistical properties of gdp and tourism receipts growth rates through modelling the dependence to that end two developed economies such as the united kingdom non tourist oriented and spain tourist oriented and an emerging economy such as croatia tourist oriented are considered as case studies therefore a copula based garch approach is employed to describe the dependence structure between gdp and tourism receipts growth rates in this respect any causality and cointegration between tourism and gdp could justify public policies that promote a more efficient public resource allocation in the tourism industry additionally evidence of dependence between growth rates can justify the extent and direction of these policies results indicate that there is a significant asymmetric and positive dependence between tourism and gdp growth rates for the three countries studied though only for croatia is it time varying over time

optimal currency composition for china s foreign reserves a copula approach this paper investigates the optimal currency composition for a country s foreign reserves in the context of china we examine the asymmetric fat tail and complex dependence structure in distributions of currency returns a skewed fat tailed and pair copula construction is then built to capture features of higher moments in a d vine copula approach we show that under the disappointment aversion effect the central bank in our model can achieve sizeable gains in expected economic value from switching from the mean variance to copula modelling we find that this approach will lead to an optimal currency composition that allows china to have more space for international currency diversification while maintaining the leading position of the us dollar in the currency shares of china s reserves

urban development in the united states 1690 1990 the united states transformed itself from a rural to an urban society over the last three cen turies after a century of unremarkable growth the pace of urbanization was historically un precedented between the nineteenth and the early twentieth centuries in the twentieth century the urban population continued to increase but in a much more dispersed manner as the sub urban population increased throughout these developments cities also exhibited considerable variation in their population sizes this paper finds that the pace and pattern of u s urban development are explained by changes in regional comparative advantage and in economies in transportation and local public goods which in turn were determined by the changes in the economic structures of cities this paper also finds that cities varied considerably in size because the larger cities reduced market transaction costs associated with coordinating greater geograph ic division of labor

evaluating energy security in the asia pacific towards a more comprehensive approach the energy security conundrum how to equitably provide available affordable reliable efficient and environmentally benign energy services is a technology and policy challenge perhaps unlike any other the recent article on an energy security in the asia pacific by vlado vivoda is an excellent starting point for how to best capture the unique energy security challenges facing the region this article builds on vivoda s work but also points out some shortcomings with his analysis

the relative productivity hypothesis of industrialization the american case 1820 to 1850 a two sector model is used to explore the role of the agricultural sector in the process of industrialization our hypothesis is that areas industrialize earlier where the wages for females and children relative to those for adult males are initially low furthermore the lower this relative productivity of females and children in the pre industrial economy the proportionately more will their relative wages increase and the higher will be the ratio of manufactured to agricultural goods the model is used to interpret the conditions that fostered the rapid industrialization of the american northeast but not the south from 1820 to 1850

it based technical change and job instability we investigate the impact of it diffusion on the stability of employment we document the evolution of different components of job instability over a panel of 348 cities in france from the mid 1970s to the early 2000s the evidence goes against the view that the diffusion of it has spurred job instability yet analysing long term differences in the occupational structure we find that it diffusion has increased the share of high skill occupations at the expense of low skill occupations this is consistent with french firms reliance on their internal labour market to meet the new skill requirements associated with it diffusion

defining energy security takes more than asking around abstract in undetermined the recent contribution by benjamin sovacool proposes 20 dimensions and 320 indicators of energy security in asia however the method for identifying these dimensions and indicators 64 semi structured interviews has three shortcomings first asian policy makers responsible for energy security are absent from the pool of respondents dominated by academics second no prioritization or contextualization of energy security concerns is attempted leading to an excessively long generic list third no disagreements between the interviewed experts are accounted for future attempts to define energy security based on perceptions should involve relevant social actors include mechanisms for discriminating between primary and secondary concerns and find ways to constructively report on disagreements less

dependence structure between nominal and index linked bond returns a bivariate copula and dcc garch approach this article investigates the dependence structure related to four french nominal and index linked bonds with various maturities and reference indices to achieve this aim we estimate various copulas to select the appropriate one for our data we also compare results obtained using the copula method with multivariate dynamic conditional correlation garch dcc garch modelling the major issue in this study is that the best copulas used to model the dependence among bond returns are the plackett and student models we also find a dynamic correlation between bond returns in particular the relationship between nominal and indexed bonds is characterized by an asymmetric dependence moreover the results obtained by the copula approach are confirmed by those obtained by multivariate garch modelling our empirical study provides a useful method that may be employed by decision makers to quantitatively introduce dependence and spillover effects in their bond issuance policy for investors we propose optimal

cliometrics 1971 1986 a survey the paper selectively surveys recent quantitative work in economic history with special emphasis on research into unemployment in interwar britain the habakkuk controversy the kuznets curve the demographic transition and heights in history it is shown that the field has advanced well beyond the routine applications of elementary microeconomics which characterized its early days considerably greater quantitative sophistication and a much wider coverage of historical issues have been notable features of this advance it is argued that econometric methods need to be supplemented in historical work by other forms of evidence to obtain persuasive answers to historical questions

parental altruism and self interest child labor among late nineteenth century american families intergenerational relationships within late nineteenth century industrial families are analyzed using several large scale contemporary household surveys nonaltruistic behavior by parents was pervasive even among families with positive assets child labor was common in certain industrial settings suggesting that child labor or nonschooling did not simply reflect parental borrowing constraints neither did physical asset transfers offset human capital losses among working youth a quantitative estimate of parental nonaltruism is derived from an equilibrium labor market model approximately 90 percent of all child earnings was implicitly competed away through lower adult wages as families migrated to areas with abundant child labor opportunities

evaluating energy security in the asia pacific region a novel methodological approach this paper establishes an energy security assessment instrument based on a new and expanded conceptualisation of energy security the instrument is a systematic interrogative tool for evaluating energy security of individual states or regions it consists of eleven broad energy security dimensions associated with the current global energy system these energy security dimensions take into account numerous quantitative and qualitative attributes of each country s energy security and policy and include both traditional energy security concerns and many new factors such as environmental socio cultural and technological another dimension largely absent from previous analyses is the existence of and the issues addressed in energy security policy in each country this instrument serves as an assessment system with which to evaluate energy security in the asia pacific region the existing studies on energy security in the asia pacific region suffer from serious limitations no study to date examines regional energy security policies by adopting a more comprehensive energy security definition as a starting point most studies also focus on a single country or issue even if they examine energy security in major regional economies they lack critical comparative analysis the instrument is valuable as it may be utilised to draw a comprehensive map of regional energy security situation which can also include comparative analysis of energy security characteristics across the asia pacific region ultimately it may be utilised to set up a framework for improved regional energy cooperation with the aim of providing regional leaders with a blueprint for improving regional energy security and policy

structural change and the fertility transition this paper provides new insights into the relationship between structural change and the fertility transition we exploit the spread of an agricultural pest in the american south in the 1890s as pl

diversity and security in uk electricity generation the influence of low carbon objectives abstract we explore the relationship between low carbon objectives and the strategic security of electricity in the context of the uk electricity system we consider diversity of fuel source mix to represent one dimension of security robustness against interruptions of any one source and apply two different diversity indices to the range of electricity system scenarios produced by the uk government and independent researchers our results show that low carbon objectives are uniformly associated with greater long term diversity in uk electricity generation with reference to data on wind generation we also consider the impact of source variability on a second dimension of security the reliability of generation availability we conclude that this does not undermine our fundamental conclusion that low carbon scenarios are associated with greater strategic security of supply in uk electricity we discuss reasons for this result explore sensitivities and briefly discuss possible policy instruments associated with diversity and their limitations

should the personal computer be considered a technological revolution evidence from u s metropolitan areas the introduction and diffusion of personal computers are widely viewed as a technological revolution using u s metropolitan area level panel data this paper asks whether links between pc adoption educational attainment and the return to skill conform to a model of technological revolutions in which the speed and extent of adoption are endogenous the model implies that cities will adjust differently to the arrival of a more skill intensive means of production with the returns to skill increasing most where skill is abundant and its return is low we show that the cross city data fit many of the predictions of the model during the period 1980 2000 the pc diffusion era

modeling exchange rate dependence dynamics at different time horizons despite an extensive body of research the best way to model the dependence of exchange rates remains an open question in this paper we present a new approach which employs a flexible time varying copula model it allows the conditional correlation between exchange rates to be both time varying and modeled independently from the marginal distributions we introduce a dynamic specification for the correlation using the fisher transformation applied to euro us dollar and japanese yen us dollar our results reveal a significantly time varying correlation dependent on the past return realizations we find that a time varying copula with the proposed correlation specification gives better results than alternative dynamic benchmark models the dynamic copula model outperforms at six different time horizons ranging from hourly to daily confirming the model specification c 2010 elsevier ltd all rights reserved

a longer look at the asymmetric dependence between hedge funds and the equity market this paper reexamines at a range of investment horizons the asymmetric dependence between hedge fund returns and market returns given the current availability of hedge fund data the joint distribution of longer horizon returns is extracted from the dynamics of monthly returns using the filtered historical simulation we then apply the method based on copula theory to uncover the dependence structure therein while the direction of asymmetry remains unchanged the magnitude of asymmetry is attenuated considerably as the investment horizon increases similar horizon effects also occur on the tail dependence our findings suggest that nonlinearity in hedge fund exposure to market risk is more short term in nature and that hedge funds provide higher benefits of diversification the longer the horizon

the copula garch model of conditional dependencies an international stock market application abstract modeling the dependency between stock market returns is a difficult task when returns follow a complicated dynamics when returns are non normal it is often simply impossible to specify the multivariate distribution relating two or more return series in this context we propose a new methodology based on copula functions which consists in estimating first the univariate distributions and then the joining distribution in such a context the dependency parameter can easily be rendered conditional and time varying we apply this methodology to the daily returns of four major stock markets our results suggest that conditional dependency depends on past realizations for european market pairs only for these markets dependency is found to be more widely affected when returns move in the same direction than when they move in opposite directions modeling the dynamics of the dependency parameter also suggests that dependency is higher and more persistent between european stock markets

commodity currencies and commodity prices modelling static and time varying dependence abstractthis article employs the copula approach to study the relationship between exchange rates and commodity prices for large commodity exporters using data for the nominal exchange rates of four commodity currencies australian canadian and new zealand dollars and norwegian krone against the us dollar and the relevant country specific commodity price indices constructed on a daily basis we find 1 a positive dependence between the values of commodity currencies and commodity indices i e a commodity index increases when a respective currency appreciates and provides several explanations for this finding 2 no major asymmetries in the tail dependence for most pairs of exchange rates and commodity indices and 3 a pronounced increase in the time varying tail dependence following the global financial crisis

on the origins of gender roles women and the plough the study examines the historical origins of existing cross cultural differences in beliefs and values regarding the appropriate role of women in society we test the hypothesis that traditional agricultural practices influenced the historical gender division of labor and the evolution of gender norms we find that consistent with existing hypotheses the descendants of societies that traditionally practiced plough agriculture today have less equal gender norms measured using reported gender role attitudes and female participation in the workplace politics and entrepreneurial activities our results hold looking across countries across districts within countries and across ethnicities within districts to test for the importance of cultural persistence we examine the children of immigrants living in europe and the united states we find that even among these individuals all born and raised in the same country those with a heritage of traditional plough use exhibit less equal beliefs about gender roles today jel codes d03 j16 n30 copyright 2013 oxford university press

the methodological challenges of creating a comprehensive energy security index this short article defends the methods utilized in creating an energy security index it explains why an energy security index is needed and then justifies research interviews as a data collection tool next it responds to the three strands of professor cherp s critique before offering a few general conclusions for readers concerned about energy security

people and machines a look at the evolving relationship between capital and skill in manufacturing 1860 1930 using immigration shocks abstract this paper estimates the elasticity of substitution between capital and skill in manufacturing using immigration induced variation in skill mix across u s counties between 1860 and 1930

co dependence of extreme events in high frequency fx returns in this paper we investigate extreme events in high frequency multivariate fx returns within a purposely built framework we generalize univariate tests and concepts to multidimensional settings and employ these novel techniques for parametric and nonparametric analysis in particular we investigate and quantify the co dependence of cross sectional and intertemporal extreme events we find evidence of the cubic law of extreme returns their increasing and asymmetric dependence and of the scaling property of extreme risk in joint symmetric tails

an international assessment of energy security performance energy security has in recent years grown as a salient policy and political issue to better understand energy security and sustainability concerns this study s main objective is to present an energy security index which measures national performance on energy security over time based on three years of research involving interviews surveys and an international workshop this study conceptualizes energy security as consisting of the interconnected factors of availability affordability efficiency sustainability and governance it then matches these factors with 20 metrics comprising an energy security index measuring international performance across 18 countries from 1990 to 2010 it offers three case studies of japan top performer laos middle performer and myanmar w orst performer to provide context to the index s results it then presents four conclusions first a majority of countries analyzed have regressed in terms of their energy security second despite the near total deterioration of energy security a great disparity exists between countries with some clear leaders such as japan third tradeoffs exist within different components of energy security fourth creating energy security is as much a matter of domestic policy from within as it is from foreign policy without

diversification of oil import sources and energy security a key strategy or an elusive objective this paper explores the relationship between the diversification of sources of imported oil and energy security of oil importing countries it examines the importance of diversification policy for oil importers explains why oil importers implement oil diversification policy and contextualizes the oil import diversification strategy in the overall energy security policy of oil importers the paper analyzes the factors and the contexts that affect the level of importance assigned to oil import diversification policy in oil importing countries and the limitations that may affect the successful implication of oil import diversification policy the examples are drawn from the world s top three oil importers the united states japan and china the policymakers in these and other oil importing countries place much importance on energy security the diversification of oil import sources is used as one of the strategies to enhance energy security in oil importing countries this paper is important for policymakers in oil importing countries as it provides them with a qualitative conceptual framework with which to evaluate the need to diversify their countries sources of imported oil and with which to identify the likely limitations to the successful implementation of oil import diversification policy

cheap labor and southern textiles 1880 1930 an interpretation of the southern capture of the american cotton textile market is presented emphasizing capital accumulation and a process of maturation of the labor force the market was divided along lines of product quality and the precise rate of convergence was governed by the pace of demand simulations of the system uncover the surprising fact that the great textile depression which began in the 1920s is not attributable to trends in demand imports or a chronic tendency to overproduce but to the increase in real wages that occurred in the south as well as in the north possible interpretations of this development are discussed

will the european commission s policy hinder gas supplies to central and eastern european countries opal case decision abstract natural gas has become one of the most important sources of energy the liberalization of the gas sector in the last decades brought a dynamic development of the energy infrastructure in the eu thus it must be underlined that the liquidity of the gas market is dependent on the outside supplies the study examines the european commission s policy taking into consideration specifically its decision on the exemption of opal gas pipeline from eu rules the main question is what would be the long term effect of such policy in the authors opinion there are several serious doubts whether the commission has made an appropriate decision the major one concentrate on the impact of the decision which according to the commission refers only to germany and czechia gas market nevertheless an analysis of gas flow based on the entsog leads to a conclusions that decision could have a substantial influence on slovakia and poland if so under the eu provisions the investment can not be excluded form the eu rules therefore the authors will analyze step by step the commission decision and present its possible future impact on the internal energy market

shifting policy priorities in eu china energy relations implications for chinese energy investments in europe shifting energy policy priorities both in china and the eu european union have transformed their bilateral relationship in order to assess the impact of domestic policy priorities on bilateral energy cooperation and climate policy this comparative study traces the evolution of eu and chinese approaches to energy policy and their relative emphasis on factors and frames such as availability efficiency affordability and environmental stewardship drawing on government documents and a data set of interviews with chinese policy makers experts and academics in 2015 2016 the article argues that while the eu started with a strong emphasis on environmental stewardship and moved towards a focus on affordability and availability china started with a strong emphasis on availability and has moved towards a greater emphasis on environmental stewardship this shift in frames on the chinese side and subsequent changes in subsidy structures and targets can partially explain the increase in investments in renewable energy technologies the article concludes that the chinese and eu perspectives have become more aligned over the past ten years coinciding with an increasing trend towards renewable energy in chinese energy investments in the eu for example in italy and the uk