the new role for the world bank the world bank was founded to address what we would today call imperfections in international capital markets its founders thought that countries would borrow from the bank temporarily until they grew enough to borrow commercially nac 1946 p 312 black 1952 some critiques and analyses of the bank are based on the assumption that this continues to be its role for example some argue that the growth of private capital flows to the developing world has rendered the bank irrelevant however we will argue that modern analyses should proceed from the premise that the world bank s central goal is and should be to reduce extreme poverty and that addressing failures in global capital markets is now of subsidiary importance the bank s stated goal is reducing poverty the overwhelming majority of bank subsidies from its shareholder countries go to the international development association ida its arm for making grants and highly concessional loans to the lowest income countries the bank s greatest impact comes from its role in the dramatic policy changes many developing countries have undertaken in multiple sectors that most economists would consider likely to reduce poverty either by increasing growth or promoting equity why might donor countries choose to work through an international organization to advance the goal of reducing poverty effective aid often involves

when is foreign aid policy credible aid dependence and conditionality the author studies foreign aid policy within a principal agent framework he shows that one reason for foreign aid s poor overall record may be a moral hazard problem that shapes the aid recipient s incentive to undertake structural reform the model s basic prediction is a two way relationship disbursements of foreign aid are guided in part by the needs of the poor anticipating this recipients have little incentive to improve the welfare of the poor preliminary econometric work shows that the data support this hypothesis in principle conditionality could partly solve this problem but only if the donor can make a binding commitment to increase disbursements in good relative to bad states without such a commitment technology aid disbursements remain guided by the needs of the poor and recipient countries maintain a low effort to reduce poverty contrary to the conventional wisdom found in the aid literature the author shows that the welfare of all parties might be improved by using tied project aid or by delegating part of the aid budget to an international agency with less aversion to poverty

the induced innovation hypothesis and energy saving technological change we develop a methodology for testing hicks s induced innovation hypothesis by estimating a product characteristics model of energy using consumer durables augmenting the hypothesis to allow for the ine uence of government regulations for the products we explored the evidence suggests that i the rate of overall innovation was independent of energy prices and regulations ii the direction of innovation was responsive to energy price changes for some products but not for others iii energy price changes induced changes in the subset of technically feasible models that were offered for sale iv this responsiveness increased substantially during the period after energy efficiency product labeling was required and v nonetheless a sizable portion of efficiency improvements were autonomous

does aid availability affect effectiveness in reducing poverty a review article this paper addresses the impact of aid supply on aid effectiveness first we review theoretical literature that deals with the problem of governance in donor recipient relationships and are susceptible of highlighting effects of aggregate aid availability second we provide a conceptual framework that explicitly incorporates a trade off between considerations of needs and governance we examine the impact of aid supply on the manner in which a donor agency allocates the available money between countries differing in terms of both needs and domestic governance the central conclusion is that a donor s utility function that embodies the need governance trade off and the associated optimization mechanism yield a meaningful rule to guide inter country allocation of aid resources

are bilateral and multilateral aid for trade complementary using the first comprehensive estimates of ad valorem tariff equivalent bilateral trade costs spanning the time period 2002 10 we examine whether the aid for trade aft inflows reduce bilateral trade costs facing aid recipients if so we ask whether the trade costs reduction effects of aft from bilateral and multilateral sources are complementary by showing the extent to which the observed trade cost reduction effects of aft from bilateral multilateral sources correlate with the magnitudes of aft disbursements from multilateral bilateral sources we present plausible explanation for the cross country variations in the extent to which aft promotes trade flows our findings have thus important policy implications for shaping future discourses on the coordination of disbursements for enhancing the effectiveness of aft

the hard challenge of aid coordination aid coordination is a constant theme of discussion among national and international aid agencies in their search for more effectiveness and efficiency in delivering development assistance this paper seeks to clarify some of the arguments currently made in support of aid coordination and to precise unavoidable trade offs born of the existence of political costs it is anchored in the available literature on aid delivery while focusing on the implementation problems of aid coordination among donor countries in particular it deals with a the issue of consistently and collectively handling possible governance failures in recipient countries and b the impact of heterogeneity of donor countries on the effectiveness of aid coordination

the political economy of environmental policy with overlapping generations a two sector overlapping generations model illuminates the intergenerational effects of a tax that protects an environmental stock a traded asset capitalizes the economic returns to future tax induced environmental improvements benefiting the current asset owners the old generation absent a transfer the tax harms the young generation by decreasing their real wage future generations benefit from the tax induced improvement in environmental stock the principal intergenerational conflict arising from the tax is between generations alive at the time society imposes the policy not between generations alive at different times a pareto improving tax can be implemented under various political economy settings

generational welfare under a climate change policy with induced innovation we develop a climate economy model with generational heterogeneity and the potential for climate policy induced technological change we use the model to assess the distributional implications of climate policies and of policy designs which recycle generated revenues to finance research and development r d we model only innovation in the energy generated per unit of fossil fuels so the quantitative results we derive are small our emphasis is on the distributional impacts of redistributing climate policy rents to enhance r d we show that while investments of climate policy rents to accelerate innovation are likely to be welfare improving as long as significant market failures exist they are also likely to exacerbate the distributional inequities created across generations by climate change policies the political feasibility of climate policies may be harmed by rent transfers to r d as these transfers can increase the costs borne by agents alive today while increasing benefits to generations born far into the future

why conditional aid does not work and what can be done about it abstract this paper studies a simple reform that introduces ex post incentives for the donor to reward good policies contrary to existing practices instead of committing aid to each recipient ex ante and making aid conditional on reform the donor centralizes the disbursement decision by committing aid to a group of countries the actual amount disbursed to each individual country would depend on its relative performance this explicit linkage of the allocation and disbursement decisions has two important advantages as compared to present practices first it raises the opportunity cost of disbursing aid ex post thereby giving the donor stronger incentives to reward good policies second competition among recipients allows the donor to make inferences about common shocks which otherwise conceal the recipient s choice of action this enables the donor to give aid more efficiently

the welfare implications of climate change policy abstract the response to three different climate change policies is measured within a general equilibrium model of world output technological change greenhouse gas emissions and climate driven changes in productivity the proposed policies including an approximation to the kyoto protocol are shown to differ greatly in how they mitigate climate change support economic growth and allocate rents across generations benefits of alternative policies relative to the status quo do not necessarily accrue to the generations that bear the costs the results also show that the chosen rent distribution rule has a profound effect on policy evaluation in particular policies which allocate rents on a per capita basis are shown to be systematically welfare preferred to situations where emissions rights are grandfathered to emitting firms this implies that both the optimal level of emissions and the welfare cost of reaching a given target of emissions or atmospheric concentration would be lower under a per capita allocation of emissions permits or carbon tax revenues

the effects of ageing and an environmental trust fund in an overlapping generations model on carbon emission reductions most currently employed integrated assessment models for climate change are of a dynastic nature they employ the ramsey rule linking the interest rate economic growth and the rate of pure time preference this paper argues that although a dynastic framework might be convenient for economic analysis it is restrictive and can be misleading overlapping generations models which do not employ the ramsey rule are more flexible and may give results different from those derived from dynastic models with the integrated assessment model alice 2 0 it is shown how various assumptions on demographic change and public institutions can affect the interest rate thereby influencing the efficient greenhouse gas emission reductions it is concluded that dynastic integrated assessment models are in many respects inappropriate for providing policy makers with quantitative figures about the costs of carbon dioxide emissions and their desirable reduction levels 2001 elsevier science b v all rights reserved

induced innovation and energy prices this paper uses u s patent data from 1970 to 1994 to study the impact of energy prices on energy efficient innovations theories of technological change have focused both on demand side factors which spur innovative activity by increasing the value of new innovations and supply side factors such as scientific advancements that make new innovations possible data on demand side factors are easily obtained but data on supply side factors that influence innovation are not readily available this paper uses patent citations as a measure of the usefulness of the existing base of scientific knowledge citations to previous patents are used to construct productivity estimates which measure the usefulness of the existing stock of knowledge to inventors in a given energy field for any given year these estimates are then combined with data on demand side factors to estimate a model of induced innovation in energy technologies the results indicate that both energy prices and the supply of knowledge have strongly significant positive effects on innovation the paper concludes with a discussion of the implication of this work for environmental policy

small is beautiful motivational allocation in the non profit sector we build an occupational choice general equilibrium model with for profit firms non profit organizations and endogenous private warm glow donations lack of monitoring on the use of funds implies that an increase of funds of the non profit sector because of a higher incomein the for profit sector a stronger preference for giving or an inflow of foreign aid worsens the motivational composition and performance of the non profit sector we also analyze the conditions under which donors through linking donations to the motivational composition of the non profit sector non profits themselves through peer monitoring or the government using a tax financed public funding of non profits can eliminate the low effectiveness equilibrium we present supporting case study evidence from humanitarian emergencies and developing country ngo sector and humanitarian emergencies

stabilizing greenhouse gas emissions assessing the intergenerational costs and benefits of the kyoto protocol the costs and benefits current and future generations incur as the result of climate change or an environmental control policy are often confounded with other objectives such as generational discounting or optimal policy design this paper uses a consumption equivalent measure to simulate the loss or gain of consumption independent of these confounding objectives the findings suggest that the costs associated with an emissions stabilization program are relatively large for current generations and continue to increase over the next 100 years the first generation to actually benefit from the stabilization program is born early during the 24th century

aid fragmentation and effectiveness what do we really know summary aid fragmentation is widely recognized as being detrimental to development outcomes we reinvestigate the impact of fragmentation in the context of growth bureaucratic policy and education focusing on a number of conceptually different indicators of fragmentation and paying attention to potentially heterogeneous effects across countries sectors and channels of influence our systematic and detailed reexamination of existing empirical studies shows that this differentiation is crucial in some sectors such as primary education donor concentration or limiting donor numbers appear to be detrimental rather than beneficial for development outcomes in other areas we find the expected negative effect but only when we conceptualize fragmentation as a lack of lead donors too limited concentration rather than in terms of donor numbers in all cases sufficient initial administrative capacity in recipient countries prevents the negative and reinforces the positive effects of fragmentation this stresses the importance of questioning the sweeping conclusions drawn by much of the previous literature based on what we currently know generalizing judgments about the effect of aid fragmentation may be misleading

an overlapping generations model of climate economy interactions a numerically calibrated overlapping generations model of climate change and the world economy is examined in this paper in the absence of intergenerational transfers efficient rates of greenhouse gas emissions abatement rise from 16 in the present to 25 in the long run while mean global temperature increases by 7 40c relative to the preindustrial norm a utilitarian optimum which attaches equal weight to each generation s life cycle utility yields abatement rates that rise from 48 to 89 with a long run temperature increase of 3 40c a second best utilitarian path in which intergenerational transfers are by assumption institutionally infeasible also supports stringent abatement measures i introduction the infinitely lived agent framework pioneered by frank ramsey 1928 has emerged as a central structure in the economics of climate change as characterized by ipcc 1996 working group iii climate change occurs when anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases principally carbon dioxide but also chlorofluorocarbons methane nitrous oxide and water vapor contribute to long term increases in mean global temperature potentially disrupting ecological systems and climate dependent production activities the best known study on the economics of this subject is nordhaus 1994 dynamic model of climate and the economy dice which incorporates assumptions regarding the costs and benefits of greenhouse gas emissions in a standard one sector growth model in nordhaus analysis a 50 reduction in greenhouse gas emissions would reduce gross world output by 0 93 a doubling of greenhouse gas concentrations relative to the preindustrial norm which is expected to occur by the middle of the twenty first century would reduce output by

do the poor pay more retail food prices in northeast brazil i malnutrition poverty and food prices research on food consumption and nutritional status in brazil based primarily on the large nationwide estudo nacional da despesa familiar endef survey of 1974 75 appears to have established that protein calorie malnutrition is widespread in the country and that it is due principally to poverty rather than cultural or educational factors 1 dietary knowledge and habits do help account for malnutrition especially among very young children but many families incomes are simply too low to purchase an adequate diet even if nutrients were obtained at minimal cost and were adequately distributed among family members both malnutrition and poverty are concentrated in northeastern brazil and are found among urban squatter populations as well as in rural areas

technological change in economic models of environmental policy a survey this paper provides an overview of the treatment of technological change in economic models of environmental policy numerous economic modeling studies have confirmed the sensitivity of mid and long run climate change mitigation cost and benefit projections to assumptions about technology costs in general technical progress is considered to be a noneconomic exogenous variable in global climate change modeling however there is overwhelming evidence that technological change is not an exogenous variable but to an important degree endogenous induced by needs and pressures hence some environmenteconomy models treat technological change as endogenous responding to socio economic variables three main elements in models of technological innovation are i corporate investment in research and development ii spillovers from r d and iii technology learning especially learning by doing the incorporation of induced technological change in different types of environmental economic models tends to reduce the costs of environmental policy accelerates abatement and may lead to positive spillover and negative leakage

political conditionality and foreign aid this article argues that a new generation of political conditionalities has emerged during the last decade this requires an expansion of the original definition and research agenda beyond the traditional questions of use and effectiveness however there is also a need to dig deeper into the dynamics surrounding political conditionalities particularly the bargaining processes and outcomes along the aid chain from domestic donor politics donor harmonization fora policy dialog spaces to the political economy of recipient institutional reform and donor coping strategies because they influence the set up use follow up purpose and effectiveness of pcs

a tale of two market failures technology and environmental policy abstract market failures associated with environmental pollution interact with market failures associated with the innovation and diffusion of new technologies these combined market failures provide a strong rationale for a portfolio of public policies that foster emissions reduction as well as the development and adoption of environmentally beneficial technology both theory and empirical evidence suggest that the rate and direction of technological advance is influenced by market and regulatory incentives and can be cost effectively harnessed through the use of economic incentive based policy in the presence of weak or nonexistent environmental policies investments in the development and diffusion of new environmentally beneficial technologies are very likely to be less than would be socially desirable positive knowledge and adoption spillovers and information problems can further weaken innovation incentives while environmental technology policy is fraught with difficulties a long term view suggests a strategy of experimenting with policy approaches and systematically evaluating their success

an overlapping generations model of growth and the environment this article analyzes the potential conflict between economic growth and the maintenance of environmental quality in an overlapping generations model short lived individuals make decisions which have long lasting effects on both factor productivity and the environment the model provides a theoretical explanation of observed correlations between environmental quality and income whereby economic growth is associated first with declines then improvements in environmental quality it suggests circumstances in which multiple pareto ranked steady state equilibria may arise and in which sustained growth of both capital and environmental quality may occur overmaintenance of the environment analogous to dynamically inefficient overaccumulation of capital may emerge copyright 1994 by royal economic society

a climate change policy induced shift from innovations in carbon energy production to carbon energy savings abstract we develop an endogenous growth model with capital labor and carbon energy as production factors and three technology variables that measure accumulated innovations for carbon energy production carbon energy savings and neutral growth all markets are complete and perfect except for research for which we assume that the marginal social benefits exceed the marginal private benefits by factor four the model constants are calibrated so that the model reproduces the relevant global trends over the 1970 2000 period the model contains a simple climate module and is used to assess the impact of induced technological change itc for a policy that aims at a maximum level of atmospheric co2 concentration 450 ppmv itc is shown to reduce the required carbon tax by more than a factor 2 and to reduce costs of such a policy by half when we do not constrain aggregate r d expenditures to benchmark levels costs are further reduced numerical simulations show that knowledge accumulation shifts from energy production to energy saving technology we discuss reasons for differences between our results and earlier results reported in the literature

contracting for aid abstract foreign aid is analyzed as a contract where the north gives a transfer to the south in return for poverty reduction regarded as an international public good the issue of conditionality is first discussed in a moral hazard framework and then under asymmetric information about the degree of altruism of the government of the south additional actors like local ngos and multilateral aid institutions are then added to the model the optimal contracts to avoid free riding or collusion are then presented

endogenous technological change in climate change modelling this article investigates the impact on optimal co2 abatement and carbon tax levels of introducing endogenous technological change in a macroeconomic model of climate change we analyse technological change as a function of cumulative capacity as incorporated recently in energy systems models our calculations confirm that including endogenous innovation implies earlier emission reduction to meet atmospheric carbon concentration constraints however the effect is stronger than suggested in the literature moreover the development of non fossil energy technologies constitutes the most important opportunity for emission reductions optimal carbon tax levels reducing fossil energy use are lower than usually advocated