the developmental effect of state alcohol prohibitions at the turn of the twentieth century john p lennon treasurer of the american federation of labor says that seventy percent of the drink bill of the united states is contributed by the american laboring man this means that liquor money is usually bread money meat money shoe money and money that ought to go for clothing american issue maryland edition june 12 1909 as cited in odegard 1928 i introduction work by economists provides considerable evidence consistent with the fetal origins hypothesis that various chronic health outcomes are prompted by an adverse in utero environment e g banerjee et al 2010 deschenes et al 2009 1 while the outcomes and conditions vary across studies the underlying findings emphasize the risks associated with negative exposures during this critical development period most studies in the fetal origins literature exploit the variation afforded by temporary adverse in utero shocks e g famines and focus on early life outcomes e g low birth weight however recent research in this area examines the effects in adulthood of positive in utero and childhood exposures for example hoynes schanzenbach and almond 2012 find that the beneficial effects of food stamp access in utero and during childhood persist into adulthood suggesting the potential for positive and sustained environmental changes during gestation and in early childhood to have long lasting impacts 2 results from bleakley 2007 suggest higher adult incomes among cohorts in the american south with more childhood exposure to hookworm eradication efforts 3 we contribute to this growing literature by exploiting the quasi randomization of alcohol consumption created by state level alcohol prohibition laws passed in the united states in the early part of the twentieth century we argue that such laws represented a positive shock to individuals who were in utero or who were young children around the times of the laws adoption using a large dataset of world war ii enlistees we examine the long term effects of these state prohibition laws on adult educational attainment obesity and height although we do not observe alcohol consumption and hence our results provide intent to treat estimates our design avoids the reporting problems associated with using more recent data on alcohol use we find small but statistically significant effects which do not appear to be the result of pre existing trends for two of the three outcome variables ii background reduced consumption of alcohol could lead to improved outcomes for those individuals in utero or in early childhood during this period through two channels first reduced alcohol consumption by the household members who likely consumed the most alcohol during this period namely men may have shifted resources to other members of the household namely women and children second reduced consumption by pregnant women themselves would reduce fetal exposure to alcohol we provide some historical evidence on the potential relevance of these mechanisms in the context of state level alcohol prohibitions a intrahousehold shift in resources to women and young children liquor traffic as the enemy of the home was a favorite theme of the anti saloon league and other temperance organizations of the time odegard 1928 42 4 the suggestive titles of pamphlets distributed by such organizations included better babies unborn children why babies die and boys worth more than taxes the obvious intention of such propaganda was to convey the message that the saloon culture and the alcohol consumption that came with it resulted in adverse outcomes for children and families that would be reversed under prohibition determining whether or not this reversal materialized is difficult given the lack of historical consumption data state level data on alcohol consumption are not available for this period however national data on consumption and other measures that are likely to be associated with consumption provide some evidence to suggest lower alcohol consumption in the period during which many states adopted alcohol prohibition laws

family planning in a life cycle model with income risk several us states have recently restricted the access to abortions we study fertility intentions and how family planning and abortions are used as mechanisms to control fertility among couples facing income risk we formulate and estimate a life cycle consumption saving model with uninsurable income risk and imperfect contraceptive control that matches fertility behavior in the british household panel survey bhps well we use the estimated model to investigate how family planning and abortions are used to control fertility in our model our simulations suggest that income risk affects family planning and that abortion is used to control fertility due to the presence of income risk this indicates that the availability of abortions might play a role as an insurance mechanism

measuring returns on investments in collectibles this paper considers the question of how to measure and interpret the financial return to investing in collectibles we review various methodologies for creating priced indexes and then discuss studies that explicitly calculate a rate of return to some set of collectibles while most collectibles appear to yield positive real returns the majority embody more risk and yield lower financial returns than stocks other characteristics of collectibles prices such as covariance with other asset prices are also examined

cointegration analysis of german and british tourism demand for greece abstract germany and great britain are traditionally two of the most important sources of tourism for greece the purpose of this paper is to investigate changes in the long run demand for tourism to greece by these two countries in order to explain the demand for tourism we are using a number of leading macroeconomic variables including income in origin countries germany and great britain tourism prices in greece and transportation cost and exchanges rates between the three countries annual data from the three countries covering the period from 1960 to 2000 are employed augmented dickey fuller test for unit root is examined in the univariate framework and johansen s maximum likelihood procedure is used to test the cointegration method and to estimate the number of cointegrating vectors of var model error correction models are estimated to explain german and british demand for tourism to greece

travel advice or trade embargo the impacts and implications of official travel advice abstract the purpose of this paper is to assess the extent to which the provision of official travel advice gives rise to the opportunity for tourism to be used as a political bargaining tool based on a case study of the gambia it suggests that the detail and accuracy of travel advice issued by government agencies may be influenced by broader political objectives and considers the implications of this for tourists and the tourism industry it also questions the role of governments as impartial providers of travel advice

a model of tourism destination choice a theoretical and empirical analysis abstract in recent years tourism has become one of the fastest growing sectors of the world economy and is widely recognised for its contribution to regional and national economic development the main aim of the paper is to propose a methodological framework within which the impact of characteristics of a tourism product on foreign travel can be captured and analysed this is achieved by combining the lancasterian product characteristics approach with the koppelman s consumer transportation model within the proposed model the characteristics of the tourism product destination including quality of service advertising and political instability are combined to generate a perception feeling regarding the tourism destination in the mind of the tourists in order to measure these perceptions feelings and hence develop a preference ordering the model is estimated by utilising a conditional logit analysis the analysis is based on primary data collected from tourists visiting cyprus the conditional logit model generates the probability of revisit given the characteristics of tourists and the cyprus tourism product the paper extends further the lancaster product characteristics framework as applied to tourism by rugg rev econom stat 55 1 1973 64 morley ann tourism res 19 1992 250 and papatheodorou ann tourism res 28 2001 164 by including the neglected but from any viewpoint important political instability characteristic that is attached to the tourist product of cyprus the inclusion of product characteristics attributes in tourism analysis appear to strongly contribute towards the better understanding of travel choice behaviour

evolution of gender differences in post secondary human capital investments college majors although women in the united states now complete more college degrees than men the distribution of college majors among college graduates remains unequal with women about two thirds as likely as men to major in business or science we develop and estimate a dynamic overlapping generations model of human capital investments and labor supply we allow for specific college major choices instead of aggregating these choices to the education level results show that changes in skill prices higher schooling costs and gender specific changes in home value were each important to the long term trends abstract from author

did rabuka s military coups have a permanent effect or a transitory effect on tourist expenditure in fiji evidence from vogelsang s structural break test abstract the central aim of this paper is to investigate whether the military coups instigated by major general sitiveni rabuka in 1987 had a permanent effect or a transitory effect on tourist expenditures in fiji to accomplish this aim we use the vogelsang econ theory 13 1997 818 test for one break in linear trending data the vogelsang test reveals 1988 as the year of the break and based on a suite of test statistics recommended by vogelsang we reject the unit root null leading to the conclusion that rabuka s coups had a transitory effect on tourist expenditure in fiji

converging or diverging a comparative analysis of trends in contingent employment practice in europe over a decade this paper makes a unique contribution to the hrm convergence divergence debate by examining whether organisations operating in europe over the 10 year time period preceding 2000 are converging in their adoption of contingent employment practice the susceptibility of contingent employment practice to both convergent and divergent pressures acts as a useful analytical lens data are drawn from organisations operating in germany spain sweden the netherlands and the uk in 1991 2918 organisations 1995 2048 organisations and 2000 1555 organisations the results suggest that convergence is limited by the institutional embeddedness of organisations

differences in managerial values a study of u s hong kong and prc managers in this study of convergence divergence of managerial values four western developed measures machiavellianism locus of control intolerance of ambiguity and dogmatism and the four dimensions of the eastern developed chinese value survey confucian dynamism human heartedness integration and moral discipline were the measures used the findings indicate that often times both culture and the business environment interact to create a unique set of managerial values in a country

distortions infrastructure and female labor supply in developing countries abstract in this paper i document cross country gaps between gross domestic product gdp per capita and gdp per worker the gaps are driven mostly by a lower female labor force participation lfp in developing countries females began to participate more in the labor markets of these countries when more households acquired access to basic infrastructure and when distortive policies affecting the prices of household appliances were partially removed i use a model of home production with endogenous labor force participation to account for these facts i find that the prices of household appliances and access to infrastructure are quantitatively important in explaining cross country labor supply differences

the paradox of the pill heterogeneous effects of oral contraceptive access the twentieth century saw dramatic increases in nonmarital births concentrated heavily among poor and working class women in this paper we investigate whether the oral contraceptive pill played a causal role in the rise of nonmarital births exploiting exogenous variation in laws governing access to the pill we find that changes in marital access to the pill increased the nonmarital birthrate by between 15 and 18 accounting for about one third of the overall increase in nonmarital births these effects are concentrated almost entirely among women whose fathers did not graduate high school and among minority women we also document that the pill increased spacing between first and second births and lowered the probability that a woman obtained a high school diploma consistent with increases in nonmarital births we find no evidence that postsecondary education levels were influenced by pill access and no evidence that nonmarital births move with male employment patterns our findings add to a growing literature which documents the power of the pill to shape women s lives in broadly heterogenous ways with minority and less well educated women bearing the brunt of the losses a phenomenon we call the paradox of the pill jel j12 j13 i24

taste based or statistical discrimination the economics of discrimination returns to its roots we briefly review the evolution of empirical work on discrimination we discuss why traditional regression based approaches neither convincingly measure market discrimination nor disentangle the relative importance of animus versus statistical discrimination in explaining such discrimination as exists we describe the development of modern correspondence studies we argue that these studies have the promise to credibly identify the presence of discrimination if not its magnitude can inform us about the underlying mechanism generating discrimination and can also point to avenues for new theoretical and empirical work on discrimination we discuss two articles with exemplary applications of these new methods at least since becker 1957 economists have been deeply interested in the presence of discrimination in markets in the 1970s and into the 1980s there was an active debate in the literature about whether discrimination was better described by becker s taste based discrimination model or by arrow and phelps statistical discrimination model that debate gave way to a theoretical literature that advanced each model separately and to an empirical literature focused on documenting the presence of disparities and the effects of policies designed to counteract discrimination only recently has the literature returned to the question of whether taste based or statistical discrimination is a more appropriate description of the phenomenon the two articles that follow are good examples of the move towards an understanding of the mechanisms underlying discrimination in this article we attempt to place the literature s recent direction into context and to show how it is a natural place for economists studying discrimination to arrive given where we began in the economics of discrimination becker explored ways in which individual tastes for discrimination might interact in a market setting to produce discriminatory outcomes for market participants becker described three models each considering a different source of discriminatory tastes employers co workers and customers the economics of discrimination included deep insights about discrimination becker clarified the distinction between individual tastes for discrimination and market discrimination he clarified the difference between segregation and market discrimination and he showed how the market might produce incentives for those with discriminatory tastes to avoid interaction with those towards whom they harbour animus 1

enhancing international customer supplier relationships through it resources a study of taiwanese electronics suppliers the growing popularity of outsourcing and offshore partnering activities raises the issue of what strategies are appropriate for firms to successfully manage customer supplier relationships in the international context little has been written about how information technology it systems may impact on international exchange relationships in the present study we report on how suppliers use it as a strategic resource to govern their international exchange relationships with multinational enterprise customers taking the supplier s perspective we propose that two types of it resources it advancement and electronic integration create value for suppliers with respect to innovativeness and market performance we argue that this value creation process is mediated by three specific forms of governance cooperativeness output monitoring and behavior monitoring to test these arguments primary data obtained from 240 taiwanese electronics suppliers are used for hypothesis testing the survey results provide evidence that suppliers it resources enable them to work effectively with their international key customers importantly of the three governance mechanisms cooperativeness has the strongest impact on supplier performance owing to supplier electronic integration post hoc analysis revealed that cultural distance does not play a role in moderating the relationship between it resources and governance mechanisms in international exchange

representing tourists heterogeneous choices of destination and travel party with an integrated latent class and nested logit model abstract aiming at a better understanding of heterogeneous interdependencies between destination and travel party choices in tourism this study attempts to simultaneously represent these two choices by integrating the nested logit model with the latent class modeling approach to accommodate both types of nested model structures together empirical analysis confirmed the effectiveness of the developed model using a data collected from more than 2000 tourists in japan it was observed that on average the two types of nested model structures are almost equally shared by samples and the model structures could significantly vary with income level and gender influential factors related to choices of destination and travel party were also explored concretely speaking travel time attractiveness of destination and number of tourism spots were found to be important influential factors in destination choice and gender age marital status have important effects on travel party choice

events in indonesia exploring the limits to formal tourism trends forecasting methods in complex crisis situations the desire to know the future is as old as humanity for the tourism industry the demand for accurate foretelling of the future course of events is a task that consumes considerable energy and is of great significance to investors this paper examines the issue of forecasting by comparing forecasts of inbound tourism made prior to the political and economic crises that engulfed indonesia from 1997 onwards with actual arrival figures the paper finds that current methods of forecasting are not able to cope with unexpected crises and other disasters and that alternative methods need to be examined including scenarios political risk and application of chaos theory the paper outlines a framework for classifying shocks according to a scale of severity probability type of event level of certainty and suggested forecasting tools for each scale of shock

art as a wartime investment conspicuous consumption and discretion the financial underperformance of art as an investment is well documented in contrast to studies conducted on peace time periods this paper shows that the art market in occupied france during wwii significantly outperformed all alternative investments bonds equities as well as currencies exchanged on the black market other than gold this suggests that art may be a good hedge against low probability disasters the paper further demonstrates that motives to purchase art consumption and investment vary over time in his theoretical model mandel 2009 attributes art s low return to the utility derived from conspicuous consumption in occupied france during wwii conspicuous consumption was impossible for artworks deemed degenerate by the nazis the price evolution of degenerate versus non degenerate artworks confirms the importance of conspicuous consumption in artworks pricing eventually the paper defines the concept of discretion the ability to store a large amount of value in small and easily transportable goods during wartime illegal activities and the risk of being forced to flee the country increased the interest for discreet assets as shown by the better performance of small and thus discreet artworks in comparison to large ones

increasing earnings inequality and the gender pay gap in canada prospects for convergence this paper retraces the evolution of canadian women s labour force participation and of the gender earnings ratio across the generations to understand better the prospects for gender convergence in pay using data from the public use labour force surveys lfs and administrative annual earnings data from the longitudinal worker files lwf the paper assesses the role of increasing top earnings inequality in the persistence of the gender pay gap having identified a growing role for the under representation of women among top earners the paper then performs an evaluation and critical analysis of existing gender equality policies centred on horizontal occupational gender segregation and discusses alternative policies for the future

impact of changes in marriage law implications for fertility and school enrollment does the postponement of marriage affect fertility and investment in human capital i study this question in the context of a 1957 amendment to the mississippi marriage law that was aimed at delaying the age of marriage changes included raising the minimum age for men and women parental consent requirements compulsory blood tests and proof of age using a difference indifferences design at the county level i find that overall marriages per 1 000 in the population in mississippi and its neighboring counties decreased by nearly 75 percent the crude birth rate decreased between 2 and 6 percent and school enrollment increased by 3 percent after the law was enacted by 1960 an unintended consequence of the law change was that illegitimate births among young black mothers increased by 7 percent i show that changes in labor market conditions during this period cannot explain the changes in marriages births and enrollment i conclude that stricter marriage related regulations that lead to a delay in marriage can postpone fertility and increase school enrollment

conflict management style accounting for cross national differences a problem in joint ventures between u s and asian firms is that cultural differences impede the smooth resolution of conflicts between managers in a survey of young managers in the u s china philippines and india we find support for two hypotheses about cultural differences in conflict style and the cultural values that account for these differences chinese managers rely more on an avoiding style because of their relatively high value on conformity and tradition u s managers rely more on a competing style because of their relatively high value on individual achievement

grandchildren and their grandparents labor supply abstract working age grandparents supply large amounts of child care an observation that raises the question of how having grandchildren affects grandparents own labor supply exploiting the unique genealogical design of the psid and the random variation in the timing when the parents of first born boys and girls become grandparents we estimate a structural labor supply model and find a negative effect on employed grandmother s hours of work of about 30 that is concentrated near the bottom of the hours distribution i e among women less attached to the labor market implications for the evaluation of child care and parental leave policies are discussed

capital gains and the rate of return on a stradivarius capital gains and the rate of return on a stradivarius i introduction no name in the annals of violin making has evoked more interest and sense of mystery than that of antonio stradivari during his long lifetime 1644 1737 stradivari probably made about 1 100 instruments with about 700 violins being accounted for currently stradivariuses have been sold in 1986 at auction for over 300 000 fakes are everywhere in spite of the wealth of price data on stradivariuses no systematic economic analysis of this data has been made the central question for this paper is what is the rate of return on a stradivarius rate of return means the annual percentage increase in the price of a stradivarius as in the case of collectables after converting all prices into dollars with 1967 purchasing power the following equation is applied p sub t p sub 0 e sup rt where p sub t is the most recent price and p sub 0 is the preceding transaction price r is the rate of return and t is the number of years elapsing between transaction dates of p sub t and p sub 0 in section ii the rate of return on individual violins for four different periods is determined stradivari developed his skills over time so that each violin is not an identical product regression analysis is used to show how these differences in quality are reflected in differences in price but not in differences in rates of return section iii in section iv the rate of return on a stradivarius from 1803 to 1986 is determined finally in section v other factors are considered that may influence the rate of return on a stradivarius ii the rate of return on individual violins here data on sale prices of individual violins are examined where there is more than one transaction over time in addition each of the sales is assigned to one of four periods periods generally accepted by musicologists such as henley 1961 15 16 as encapsulating stages in stradivari s development data are shown in tables i to iv the amati period 1665 90 stradivari was apprenticed at the age of fourteen in the workshop of the famous nicolo amati where he received on the job training all creations during this period are worked on the pattern of amati table i shows three violins having at least two sales to understand the table consider the first row labeled soames the violin was made by stradivari in 1684 transactions took place in 1907 and 1973 for 8 571 and 15 778 respectively all prices are in 1967 dollars the equation discussed above yields 15 778 8 571e sup r 66 based on this r the rate of return is 0 92 percent in other words the price of the soames violin increased annually at a rate of 0 92 percent typically there is a brokerage fee of 10 percent for individuals 6 percent for dealers to sell a violin at sotheby s or christie s auction house this of course reduces the rate of return on a violin for example to determine the rate of return on the soames after brokerage costs 10 percent was deducted from the 1973 price changing it from 15 778 to 14 201 after eliminating brokerage costs the price increases by 0 77 percent annually the nachez and mercury violins were similarly analyzed the mercury had three different sales so that there are two rates of return the long period 1691 1700 during this period stradivari made numerous changes in his art the scroll is worked in more detail and the varnish is golden yellow stradivari modified the pattern by making the violin a little longer and slightly more narrow table ii shows data on four violins except for the 1933 36 period the falmouth had similar rates of return even though the interval between sales varied significantly seventy four six and forty six years for the first second and fourth transactions respectively

tourism trade and growth the case of cyprus although the relationship between international trade and economic growth has found a wide application area in the literature over the years this can not be said about tourism and growth or trade and tourism this study employs the bounds test for cointegration and granger causality tests to investigate a long run equilibrium relationship between tourism trade and real income growth and the direction of causality among themselves for cyprus results reveal that tourism trade and real income growth are cointegrated thus a long run equilibrium relationship can be inferred between these three variables on the other hand granger causality test results suggest that real income growth stimulates growth in international trade both exports and imports and international tourist arrivals to the island furthermore growth in international trade both exports and imports also stimulates an increase in international tourist arrivals to cyprus and finally real import growth stimulate growth in real export

birth rates and the vietnam draft during the vietnam conflict over 8 million americans served in the armed forces and almost 3 5 million were deployed to southeast asia department of veterans affairs the war is considered by some to be the defining event of that generation not just because of the number of troops deployed the largest since the second world war but because of how it affected all men of that generation those who served as well as those who were able to avoid service while a large literature has examined effects of the draft on postwar outcomes for veterans effects of the wartime mobilization on family formation during the time of the conflict have been largely ignored the mobilization led to the absence of a large number of young men from local marriage markets and this shock to sex ratios could have significantly disrupted normal family formation patterns including assortative matching and fertility behavior 1 in this paper we exploit variation across states and over time on vietnam era inductions to analyze the effects of the wartime mobilization on

assessing the effects of culture on managerial attitudes a three culture test cross cultural studies are inherently difficult because the typical research design fails to differentiate cultural from other environmental influences the present study uses a research design that attempts to isolate the influence of culture japanese chinese and mexican managers their ethnic american counterparts and anglo americans are used to test the model results indicate unique persistent cultural characteristics with the cultural effect varying among the three groups of managers

the contribution of female health to economic development we analyze the economic consequences for less developed countries of investing in female health we do this through developing and calibrating a novel micro founded dynamic general equilibrium model in which parents trade off the number of children against investments in their education and in which we allow for health related gender differences in productivity we show that better female health speeds up the demographic transition and thereby the take off toward sustained economic growth by contrast male health improvements delay the transition and take off because ceteris paribus they raise fertility investing in female health is therefore a potent lever for promoting development

revisiting baumol s art as floating crap game we show that baumol s conclusion that returns on bonds are higher than returns on paintings is too pessimistic there are segments in the market for which returns are significantly higher than returns on bonds and stocks during long periods of time 20 to 40 years since tastes do change slowly though not in a predictable way this may imply that beating the market is not impossible we also construct price indexes for paintings over the last 200 years

cross cultural interaction the international comparison fallacy international management studies have been based primarily on the comparison of managerial behavior in countries around the world often these studies have implied that business people behave similarly with their domestic colleagues as with their foreign counterparts in questioning that assumption this study tests whether intra cultural behavior accurately predicts cross cultural behavior using a negotiation simulation and a sample of 462 japanese american and canadian businesspeople behaviors in cross cultural negotiations were found to differ in some important ways from those in intra cultural negotiations

low skilled immigration and parenting investments of college educated mothers in the united states evidence from time use data this paper uses several decades of u s time diary surveys to assess the impact of low skilled immigration through lower prices for commercial childcare on parental time investments using an instrumental variables approach that accounts for the endogenous location of immigrants we find that low skilled immigration to the united states has contributed to substantial reductions in the time allocated to basic childcare by college educated mothers of nonschool aged children however these mothers have not reduced the time allocated to more stimulating educational and recreational activities with their children understanding the factors driving parental time investments on children is crucial from a child development perspective

lowering standards to wed spouse quality marriage and labor market responses to the gender wage gap this paper examines the effect of the female to male wage ratio relative wage on women s spouse quality marriage and labor supply over three decades exploiting task based demand shifts as a

the economic consequences of unwed motherhood using twin births as a natural experiment social scientists have long concluded that premarital childbearing exacerbates problems of both poverty and family instability out of wedlock and adolescent childbearing may reduce a mothers educational attainment lower the probability of her eventual marriage increase her probability of welfare recipiency and decrease family income the authors use an exogenous fertility event the birth of twins to estimate the economic effects of unplanned births the approach compares the economic outcomes of women experiencing premarital twin first births to those experiencing premarital single first births in the attempt to identify the consequences of an unplanned birth upon womens future fertility and marital decisions education labor force participation labor earnings welfare receipt and poverty status 1970 and 1980 us census micro data are used to identify twin births to unmarried women analysis found large short term effects of unplanned births on labor force participation poverty and welfare recipiency among unwed mothers but not among married mothers furthermore most adverse economic effects of unplanned motherhood dissipate over time for whites but larger and more persistent negative effects weigh upon black unwed mothers

art market inefficiency art is often used as an investment vehicle given the importance of market efficiency in finance we use a large auction based index to test whether the art market is weakly efficient evidence reveals that returns on artworks exhibit high positive auto correlation we attribute this result to price truncation resulting from unobservable reserve prices in auctions we conclude that the art market is not efficient mainly because price formation is opaque to outsiders who lack information on unsold artworks

engines of liberation electricity was born at the dawn of the last century households were inundated with a flood of new consumer durables what was the impact of this consumer durable goods revolution it is argued here that the consumer goods revolution was conducive to liberating women from the home to analyse this hypothesis a beckerian model of household production is developed households must decide whether or not to adopt the new technologies and whether a married woman should work can such a model help to explain the rise in married female labour force participation that occurred in the last century yes the housewife of the future will be neither a slave to servants nor herself a drudge she will give less attention to the home because the home will need less she will be rather a domestic engineer than a domestic labourer with the greatest of all handmaidens electricity at her service this and other mechanical forces will so revolutionize the woman s world that a large portion of the aggregate of woman s energy will be conserved for use in broader more constructive fields thomas alva edison as interviewed in good housekeeping magazine lv no 4 october 1912 p 436

the production and consumption of the arts a view of cultural economics by most criteria the arts comprise a significant area of economic activity in 1990 american consumers spent 5 billion on admissions to theater opera galleries and other nonprofit arts events more than on admissions to spectator sports 4 1 billion on movie admissions and 17 6 billion on books because of difficulties in defining boundaries around the arts industry statistics on its contribution to gdp are problematical but available data suggest that the arts theater music opera dance visual arts crafts literature community and folk arts account for a little under one percent of the united states gdp and a little over one percent of the civilian labor force if the net is cast somewhat wider defining the cultural industries as including the arts motion pictures radio and television and printing and publishing an aggregate value of output can be measured for 1988 of about 130 billion or 2 5 percent of gdp national endowment for the arts 1992 likewise support for the arts and culture in the u s through government and voluntary contributions amounts to a significant annual commitment of funds combined federal state and local government expenditure on the arts and museums in 1987 amounted to about 0 8 billion and in 1990 6 4 percent of charitable giving was channeled to arts culture and the humanities yielding a total level of voluntary contributions in these areas of 7 9 billion in that year private markets in the arts too are of significant size looking at the international art trade for example we can note that the worldwide net sales of the two major art auction houses christie s and sotheby s amounted to 6 6 billion in 1989 90 1 yet despite the fact that production and consumption of art have been elements of human activity for longer than most of the phenomena that have en

the meaning of failed replications a review and proposal the welcome rise of replication tests in economics has not been accompanied by a consensus standard for determining what constitutes a replication a discrepant replication in current usage of the term can signal anything from an unremarkable disagreement over methods to scientific incompetence or misconduct this paper proposes a standard for classifying one study as a replication of some other study it is a standard that places the burden of proof on a study to demonstrate that it should have obtained identical results to the original a conservative standard that is already used implicitly by many researchers it contrasts this standard with decades of unsuccessful attempts to harmonize terminology and argues that many prominent results described as replication tests should not be described as such adopting a conservative standard like this one can improve incentives for researchers encouraging more and better replication tests

art as an investment the market for modern prints repeat sales of modern prints at auction are used to estimate a semiannual index of prices for the period 1977 92 as in other studies of art as an investment prints do not compare favorably to traditional financial assets there is substantial noise in auction prices but little or no support for the proposition that some artists command higher prices in certain countries or that masterpieces outperform the market one puzzle is the continuing tendency for prices realized at certain auction houses to exceed those realized at others notably at sotheby s relative to christie s in new york copyright 1993 by american economic association

fertility restrictions and life cycle outcomes evidence from the one child policy in china this study considers the experience of china s one child policy to examine how fertility restrictions affect economic and social outcomes over a lifetime using variations in these penalties across

fertility and labor supply evidence from the one child policy in china this study provides new evidence on on the causal effect of fertility on maternal labor supply in rural china using the fact that in some parts of rural china couples are allowed to have a second

how the other half lived marriage and emancipation in the age of the pill abstract the contraceptive pill was fda approved in 1960 however it would be another decade before young unmarried women had full access in the meantime marriage constituted a way to the pill the later 1960s early 1970s also saw a convergence on 18 as the minimum age of marriage many states lowering it from 21 exploiting these law changes we find that a lowered minimum age precipitated marriage delayed marital fertility and improved women s educational and occupational outcomes marriage easing credit constraints combined with the contraceptive properties of the pill form the hypothesized pathway

do labor market opportunities affect young women s work and family decisions experimental evidence from india do labor market opportunities for women affect marriage and fertility decisions we provided three years of recruiting services to help young women in randomly selected rural indian villages get jobs in the business process outsourcing industry because the industry was so new at the time of the study there was almost no awareness of these jobs allowing us in effect to exogenously increase women s labor force opportunities from the perspective of rural households we find that young women in treatment villages were significantly less likely to get married or have children during this period choosing instead to enter the labor market or obtain more schooling or postschool training women also report wanting to have fewer children and to work more steadily throughout their lifetime consistent with increased aspirations for a career copyright 2012 oxford university press

cutting fertility effects of cesarean deliveries on subsequent fertility and maternal labor supply despite the growing incidence of cesarean deliveries cds procedure costs and benefits continue to be controversially discussed in this study we identify the effects of cds on subsequent fertility and maternal labor supply by exploiting the fact that obstetricians are less likely to undertake cds on weekends and public holidays and have a greater incentive to perform them on fridays and days preceding public holidays to do so we adopt high quality administrative data from austria women giving birth on different days of the week are pre treatment observationally identical our instrumental variable estimates show that a non planned cd at parity 0 decreases lifecycle fertility by almost 13 6 this reduction in fertility translates into a temporary increase in maternal employment

contraception as development new evidence from family planning in colombia there has been considerable debate in the last decade about whether or not family planning programmes in developing countries reduce fertility or improve socio economic outcomes this article provides new evidence by studying the expansion of one of the worlds oldest and largest family planning organisations profamilia of colombia it finds that family planning explains less than 10 of colombias fertility decline during its demographic transition as in wealthy countries however lowering the costs of first birth postponement produced important socio economic gains enabling young women to obtain more education and to work more and live independently later in life

why have the labor force participation rates of older men increased since the mid 1990s this article seeks to explain the substantial increases in older men s labor force participation rates observed since the mid 1990s using data from the united states canada and the united kingdom i exploit the cohort effects driving recent increases in older women s participation rates to identify the effect of a wife s participation decision on her husband s participation decision i then decompose the changes in older married men s participation rates demonstrating that husbands responses to increases in wives participation in the labor force can explain one fourth one half and one third of the increase in the united states canada and the united kingdom respectively

auctions and the price of art the value of most important works of art is established by public auction either directly by an actual sale or indirectly by reference to other sales how the auction system works is thus a critical determinant of how the public s preferences are translated into the evaluation of artistic work the auction system is central in the determination of the incentives for artistic work and the efficiency of the auction system is a key determinant of the cost of creating and distributing works of art this paper contains a review of the burgeoning new research of the last decade that has been designed to shed light on how the art auction system actually works what it indicates about price formation and how well it performs we begin our discussion in section 2 with a short description of the mechanics of the auction system and then organize the remainder of our discussion around two major topics the first topic concerns how auction prices can be used to determine and compare overall price movements within the art market and other markets and the second topic concerns how the auction mechanism influences prices we

the impact of political instability on a fragile tourism product abstract the eastern mediterranean and aegean sea are not the first areas to find themselves engulfed in a political situation which threatens economies so reliant upon tourism and foreign currency receipts recent examples along the coast of north africa and former yugoslavia for instance show how foreign tourism can be all but obliterated by political instability and civil upheaval the on going dispute between the two partitioned communities on the island of cyprus threatens not only a tourism destination already suffering from increased competition and quality problems but also the neighbouring countries greece and turkey who rely upon tourism to contribute to their economies downturns in these economies can only exacerbate the problems in a vicious circle the reader is introduced to the more recent causes and the threats occurring in the area

the impact of natural culture and economic ideology on managerial work values a study of the united states russia japan and china this study assesses the impact of economic ideology and national culture on the individual work values of managers in the united states russia japan and china the convergence divergence crossvergence cdc framework was used as theoretical framework for the study while the schwartz value survey svs was used to operationalize over investigation of managerial work values across these four countries the findings largely support the crossvergence prospective while also confirming the role of national culture implications from the findings are drawn for the convergence divergence crossvergence of values as well as for the feasibility of multidomestic or global strategies for a corporate culture

terrorism and tourism as logical companions abstract the symbiotic relationship between terrorism and tourism needs to be understood and acted on not just in terms of security and marketing but in terms of such factors as planning site development employment policies political risk analysis and emergency management this article looks at the relationship between tourism and terrorism from several perspectives the political and economic impact of terrorism on tourism is assessed including the sensitivity of the tourism industry to general political strife and the vulnerability of travellers and tourist facilities to terroristic activity the nature of terroristic violence and the objectives of terrorist groups are evaluated to determine why and how attacks on tourists and facilities may fit the organizational and political objectives of terrorist groups finally the article suggests how the industry and policy makers must proceed to reduce the vulnerability for tourists and the travel sector

male wage inequality and marital dissolution is there a link after almost a century long pattern of rising marital instability divorce rates leveled off in 1980 and have been declining ever since the timing of deceleration and decline in the rates of marital disruption interestingly coincides with a period of substantial growth in wage inequality this paper establishes a connection between the two phenomena and explores potential explanations for the underlying link using individual data on female marital histories in a duration analysis framework combined with regional and temporal variation in the pattern of male wage dispersion i show that inequality has a significant stabilizing effect on the marital relationship quantitatively increases in male wage dispersion can roughly explain up to 30 of the fall in the mean separation probability between 1979 and 1990 several plausible explanations for this relationship are assessed changes in spousal labor supplies female wage inequality income uncertainty social capital as well as a hypothesis of on the marriage search the results are most supportive of the search interpretation no strong quantitative support was found for the remaining mechanisms

missing work is a pain the effect of cox 2 inhibitors on sickness absence and disability pension receipt abstract how does medical innovation affect labor supply we analyze how the availability of cox 2 inhibitors pharmaceuticals used for treating pain and inflammation affected the sickness absence and disability pension receipt of individuals with joint pain we exploit the market entry of the cox 2 inhibitor vioxx and its sudden market withdrawal as exogenous sources of variation in drug use using norwegian administrative data we find vioxx s entry decreased quarterly sickness absence days among individuals with joint pain by 7 12 percent the withdrawal increased sickness days by 12 16 percent and increased the quarterly probability of receiving disability benefits by 6 15 percent

reputation price and death an empirical analysis of art price formation i introduction art prices are often claimed to substantially increase when the artist dies these claims appear to be largely based on anecdotal evidence they are promulgated by hearsay and sometimes cleverly insinuated by art dealers who attempt to convince naive customers that it is justified to mark up the artwork of recently deceased artists this study provides a theory guided empirical analysis of the so called death effect on art prices the analysis employs hedonic price regressions and makes use of a dataset which exceeds the sample size of traditional studies in cultural economics by an order of magnitude thereby shedding a new light on previous investigations of art price formation even though the literature on art auctions art price indices and rates of return in the visual arts market is by now quite voluminous see respectively ashenfelter and graddy 2006 ginsburgh mei and moses 2006 frey and eichenberger 1995 the death effect has not received much attention so far to be sure there are a few empirical studies which allow for a death effect but these studies do so in a rather cursory and off hand manner by merely including in their regressions a dummy variable that distinguishes between works of art created by living and late artists see e g agnello 2002 worthington and higgs 2006 the first investigation that has squarely addressed death induced changes in art prices is by ekelund ressler and watson 2000 these authors go some way in providing a theoretical underpinning of the death effect by pointing out that artists produce durable goods under market conditions of monopolistic competition thus given rational actors in the art market the coase conjecture applies coase 1972 even though artists have in principle some discretion in setting prices they cannot exert market power because they are unable to credibly commit to not lowering their prices in the future by spoiling the market with an inflationary increase in production during an artist s lifetime prices will therefore settle well below the monopoly price death of course is the ultimate device to commit to discontinuing production art prices thus increase when the artist dies because her oeuvre all of a sudden becomes scarcer than originally anticipated after having laid this theoretical foundation ekelund ressler and watson proceed to empirically identify the death effect with the help of a hedonic price regression their data consists of a panel of auction records relating to the work of 21 latin american artists who died near or during the observation period 1977 1996 the prices are shown to peak in the years immediately following an artist s death thus lending support to the existence of a death effect from a theoretical point of view the main concern with this pioneering analysis relates to the artists age at death since the probability of dying increases with age the information of an old artist s death is not very surprising and should therefore already be largely reflected in the price implying a small death effect the death of an old artist moreover causes a relatively small reduction in the anticipated size of her oeuvre which again translates into a relatively small price increase when her death is made public assuming rational expectations one would therefore expect the death effect to decrease with the artist s age at death a formal rendering of this argument is shown by itaya and ursprung 2008 who investigate the death effect in an infinite horizon dynamic general equilibrium setting it therefore stands to reason that the death effect depends on the age at death neglecting this relationship in empirical investigations may of course give rise to a seriously misspecified econometric model a recent study by maddison and jul pedersen 2008 acknowledges that the prices of an artist s works should depend on the expected total supply which in turn depends on the artist s conditional life expectancy at the time of sale

does cultural background of tourists influence the destination choice an empirical study with special reference to political instability abstract political instability is a complex and multidimensional term with various conceptualisations and interpretations this paper investigates the cross cultural differences of the perceptions of travel agents concerning the impact of political instability on tourism to capture the impact a composite index of political instability indicators was developed and was subsequently distributed to 2000 travel agents in six major tourism generating countries an integrated empirical framework has been developed which allows the analysis of the survey data using repeated measures anova the results of the study demonstrates the existence of significant differences on the way that travel agents perceive the impact of the various types of political instability on the tourism industry the results might be of some interest to tourism policy makers and marketing agents

the death effect in art prices evidence from denmark analysing a panel of paintings by danish painters suggests that the conditional life expectancy of the artist at the time of sale has a negative impact on the sale price this is consistent with the idea that artists share some of the characteristics of durable monopolists and that the aging and ultimately the death of the artist represent acceptable forms of commitment not to overproduce in addition interest in an artist s work begins to wane after their death

cultural differences in conducting intra and inter cultural negotiations a sino canadian comparison a study on conflict resolution strategies of canadian and chinese peoples republic of china executives was conducted responses to two types of joint project conflicts task related and person related with potential partners from their own culture or from the other culture were examined neither group of executives altered its strategy when negotiating across cultures chinese executives were more likely to avoid conflicts but recommended more negative strategies discontinue negotiation withdraw negotiation when conflict emerged person related conflicts were found to generate more negative responses than task related conflicts especially for chinese executives both canadian and chinese executives preferred to negotiate with canadians than with chinese

subsidized contraception fertility and sexual behavior abstract we examine the impact of recent state level medicaid policy changes that expanded eligibility for family planning services to higher income women and to medicaid clients whose benefits would expire otherwise we show that the income based policy change reduced overall births to non teens by about 2 and to teens by over 4 estimates suggest a decline of 9 among newly eligible women the reduction in fertility appears to have been accomplished via greater use of contraception our calculations indicate that allowing higher income women to receive federally funded family planning cost on the order of 6 800 for each averted birth

children and their parents a review of fertility and causality childbearing decisions are not made in isolation they are taken in concert with decisions regarding work marriage health investments and stocks as well as many other observable and non observable considerations drawing causal inferences regarding the effect of additional children on family outcomes is complicated by these endogenous factors this paper lays out the issues involved in estimating the effect of additional child births on family outcomes and the assumptions underlying the range of estimators and methodologies proposed in the economic literature the common pitfalls of these estimators are discussed as well as their potential to bias our interpretation of the effect additional births have on children and parents both in the existing literature and in future work in the face of changing patterns of childbearing and child rearing

the effects of child bearing on married women s labor supply and earnings using twin births as a natural experiment we use exogenous variations in fertility due to twin births to measure the impact of an unplanned child on married women s labor supply and earnings although the overall effects of an unplanned birth on labor supply are small we find significant effects in the years immediately following the unplanned birth especially in 1970 we estimate that declining fertility explains between 6 and 13 percent of the increase in married women s labor supply between 1970 and 1980 twin births are also associated with a substantial short run loss in earnings this effect persists longer than the labor supply effects though it does eventually disappear

the rise of female professionals are women responding to skill demand for years college educated women were limited mainly to lower paying female dominated professions such as teaching and nursing over the past several decades however there has been a remarkable increase in the percentage of college educated women in higher paying traditionally male professional occupations in 1967 the fraction of college educated women working in these occupations was less than 20 percent by 1997 this number had increased to almost 40 percent this increase is particularly striking when compared to the slightly declining trend among college educated men what can explain this increase in female professionals there are a number of possible explanations one explanation is a demand shift favoring women over men in these highly skilled occupations while the notion of a gender specific demand shift is compelling in the case of high school graduate men and women who work in very different industries and occupations the story is much less convincing for the college educated group collegeeducated men and women work in more similar occupations and are presumably closer substitutes for each other to the extent that they are different the available evidence suggests that this may have worked to the disadvantage of women see francine blau and lawrence kahn 1997 another explanation and the one we focus on in this paper is that college educated women have responded to the rise in overall skill demand a phenomenon which has characterized the u s labor market during the 1980 s and perhaps even as early as the 1970 s an important margin of response for these women may have been labor market participation in 1970 less than 60 percent of college educated women were working the economy wide rise in skill demand may have attracted educated women not only from other occupations but from nonparticipation as well since virtually all college educated men work labor market participation is less likely to be a factor for men while we postulate that the overall increase in skill demand played an important role we are also aware that this is not the only explanation within these high wage professional occupations women s wages rose relative to male wages even as women increased their share this suggests to us that declining discrimination which both made it easier for women to enter these occupations and resulted in wage convergence vis a vis the male workers or unobserved skill upgrading also may have played a role in addition the spread of more effective birthcontrol devices roe v wade and no fault divorce laws just to name a few of the factors which changed marriage and fertility patterns of women also most likely contributed to women s willingness and ability to invest in career jobs see claudia goldin and lawrence katz 2000

pink work same sex marriage employment and discrimination abstract this paper analyzes how the legalization of same sex marriage in the u s affected same sex couples in the labor market by using data from the american community survey access to marriage led to amendments in tax health insurance and adoption laws that could have encouraged some same sex partners to specialize in household production and decrease their labor supply nevertheless estimates from a difference in difference model show that the individual and joint probabilities of being employed increased among same sex couples additional evidence suggests that these changes in employment were driven by improvements in attitudes and lower discrimination against sexual minorities following the introduction of marriage equality

canadian contributions to family economics canadian scholars have made substantial contributions to the relatively new field of family economics these include new models of how men and women match in marriage markets and of how decisions are made in multi person households several were early contributors to the literature on married women s labour supply and labour supply in a family context and helped to develop empirical methods in this area a particular focus has been on the impacts of policy relevant parameters such childcare costs on family labour supply and child well being new work on child development the impact of early life conditions and the processes of intergenerational transmission also highlight the importance of family context in determining economic well being

on the rate of return in the art market survey and evaluation abstract existing estimates of rates of return on single art objects and whole collections are surveyed and critically evaluated the psychic benefits from art are in the few cases they are considered at all derived from the difference to financial returns on other markets this paper discusses determinants of psychic benefits and suggests rental fees and willingness to pay studies as a possible way to analyze and estimate the psychic benefits from art

choice under uncertainty problems solved and unsolved ffifteen years ago the theory of choice under uncertainty could be considered one of the success stories of economic analysis it rested on solid axiomatic foundations it had seen important breakthroughs in the analytics of risk risk aversion and their applications to economic issues and it stood ready to provide the theoretical underpinnings for the newly emerging information revolution in economics 1 today choice under uncertainty is a field in flux the standard theory is being challenged on several grounds from both within and outside economics the nature of these challenges and of our profession s responses to them is the topic of this paper

children and their parents labor supply evidence from exogenous variation in family size although theoretical models of labor supply and the family are well developed there are few credible estimates of key empirical relationships in the work family nexus this study uses a new instrumental variable the sex composition of the first two births in families with at least two children to estimate the effect of additional children on parents labor supply in the united states instrumental variables estimates using the sex mix are substantial but smaller than the corresponding ordinary least squares ols estimates moreover unlike the ols estimates the female labor supply effects estimated using sex mix instruments appear to be absent among more educated women and women with high wage husbands we also find that married women who have a third child reduce their labor supply by as much as women in the full sample while there is no relationship between wives child bearing and husbands labor supply excerpt

growth in women s relative wages and in inequality among men one phenomenon or two although increased wage inequality among men during the past three decades has received more attention the growth in women s wages has been equally remarkable in fact by one measure of inequality the ninth decile median ratio the proportional growth in inequality has moved in exact proportion with the female male wage ratio it is suggested that both result from expansion in the value of brains relative to brawn there is no way of knowing the full story of growth in women s relative wages and it is important not to dismiss the import of changing career patterns as is evident in the panel data increasing labor market participation must be important so too are the implications that follow the movement of women from the home to the job

more power to the pill the impact of contraceptive freedom on women s life cycle labor supply the release of enovid in 1960 the first birth control pill afforded u s women unprecedented freedom to plan childbearing and their careers this paper uses plausibly exogenous variation in state consent laws to evaluate the causal impact of the pill on the timing of first births and extent and intensity of women s labor force participation the results suggest that legal access to the pill before age 21 significantly reduced the likelihood of a first birth before age 22 increased the number of women in the paid labor force and raised the number of annual hours worked

a review essay on isabel sawhill s generation unbound drifting into sex and parenting without marriage and laurence steinberg s age of opportunity lessons from the new science of adolescence sawhill and steinberg approach risky behavior among youth from two different angles steinberg argues for intervention during the adolescent years to alter behavior in ways that prioritize patience and self regulation while sawhill advocates interventions that mitigate the negative effects of risky behavior both argue that disadvantaged youth suffer worse consequences as a result of risky behavior and therefore stand to gain the most from interventions while the authors develop strong arguments for adolescent interventions the existing evidence on their effectiveness is less compelling to reconcile the promise with the reality i argue that growing up in environments of significant uncertainty reduces the returns to forward thinking behavior in the daily lives of disadvantaged youths interventions to develop adolescent decision making skills so as to reduce risky behavior will not be effective if they are inconsistent with the incentives generated by a local environment that is often characterized by uncertainty

persistence in industrial policy impacts evidence from depression era mississippi this paper studies the effects of a large scale industrial policy implemented in 1930s mississippi on contemporaneous and modern day labor market outcomes attracted by unprecedented government incentives under mississippi s balance agriculture with industry bawi program 13 large manufacturing plants established operations in the state between 1936 and 1940 using difference in differences and synthetic control matching techniques i find that counties that received these plants experienced an over 15 increase in female labor force participation on average in the short run moreover these effects persisted decades into the future well after many of the original companies shut down i also find suggestive evidence of an increase in educational attainment among women in counties where bawi investment occurred the results highlight the potential for even transitory government interventions to have long lived effects on labor markets

household bargaining and excess fertility an experimental study in zambia we posit that household decision making over fertility is characterized by moral hazard due to the fact that most contraception can only be perfectly observed by the woman using an experiment in zambia that varied whether women were given access to contraceptives alone or with their husbands we find that women given access with their husbands were 19 less likely to seek family planning services 25 less likely to use concealable contraception and 27 percent more likely to give birth however women given access to contraception alone report a lower subjective well being suggesting a psychosocial cost of making contraceptives more concealable

women in the labor market and in the family t here are two themes in this paper the first an exercise in revisionist history argues that the conventional wisdom of an absence of any substantial labor market progress for women is mistaken instead throughout this century women s wages have been steadily rising relative to those of men a progress likely to accelerate in the next few decades our second theme contends that this labor market progress is not enough alongside their labor market advances the relative economic plight of many women is worsening the downside news is the increasing feminization of poverty a reflection of the growing instability of the american family

the auction market for modern prints confirmations contradictions and new puzzles using a large data set with 80 214 repeat sales we find that the real return on a diversified portfolio of modern prints sold at auctions worldwide averaged a modest 1 51 during the period 1977 2004 we address several issues regarding the performance of modern prints as investments the selection bias arising from the self interest of auction houses the impact of an ever expanding universe of auction houses on investment returns the masterpiece effect or whether more expensive works of art outperform the market as a whole and the differences in returns that arise due to random fluctuations in collector tastes jel z11 g11 g14

combining volatility and smoothing forecasts of uk demand for international tourism abstract univariate volatility models are applied to uk tourism demand to the country s most popular international destinations volatility is a concept borrowed from finance the fact that significant volatility models are found for ten of the twelve destinations examined shows that the volatility concept has relevance to tourism demand volatility models are able to quantify the impacts of positive and negative shocks on tourism demand the impacts of negative shocks vary in magnitude and duration according to the destination involved and the nature of the shock the forecasting capability of these models has never been assessed in the tourism field they are shown to generate highly accurate forecasts but become optimal when combined with forecasts obtained from exponential smoothing models two methods of combining individual forecasts are considered bias in individual volatility and smoothing models and in combinations of them is examined

time series growth in the female labor force in this paper we investigate the reasons for the growth in the female labor force in america during the twentieth century in our research we study the longer term trends since 1900 and conduct a more intensive examination of developments after the second world war on the basis of our work we conclude that rising real wages accounted for 60 of the total growth in the female labor force half of this wage effect in expanding labor supply was the fertility reducing consequence of a higher female wage

the power of the little blue pill innovations and implications of lifestyle drugs in an aging population the launch of viagra in april 1998 led to a historically unprecedented high usage of erectile dysfunction ed drugs we test whether viagra s introduction significantly influenced outcomes for its target population such as sexually transmitted disease std rates of older men as well as its nontarget populations such as divorces natality the distribution of the age spread within couples female stds and sexual assault rates we find causal evidence that viagra s introduction increased gonorrhea rates in older men by 15 28 we find no significant evidence of any effects on other variables we take this as evidence that this lifestyle drug causes significant changes in choices only which affect short term outcomes while long term planned decisions are unaffected overall we find that the welfare impacts of viagra with respect to our outcomes of interest are positive and large jel i1 j1 o33

match bias in wage gap estimates due to earnings imputation about 30 of workers in the current population survey have earnings imputed wage gap estimates are biased toward zero when the attribute being studied e g union status is not a criterion used to match donors to nonrespondents an expression for match bias is derived in which attenuation equals the sum of match error rates attenuation can be approximated by the proportion with imputed earnings union wage gap estimates with match bias removed are presented for 1973 2001 estimates for recent years are biased downward 5 percentage points bias in gap estimates accompanying other non match criteria public sector industry etc is examined

tourism s vulnerability and resilience to terrorism personal security is a major concern for tourists most tourists will seek safe and secure destinations and avoid those that have been plagued by terrorism this research quantifies the relationship between terrorism and tourism in 95 different countries and territories using international tourism demand models after controlling for income we find there is no long run effect of terrorism on international tourism demand and the short run effect is quite limited from a global perspective using panel data models only nine countries out of the 95 show a long run impact of terrorism on tourism and 25 countries out of the 95 show a short run impact using time series models implying that international tourism is resilient to terrorism the influence of terrorism is diverse in destinations with different political instability income levels and tourism intensities

how women s rights affect fertility evidence from nigeria using data from the demographic and health surveys dhs this paper estimates the effect on fertility of a legal reform in nigeria in 1999 that lowered the value of women s testimony in court i find that the yearly probability of giving birth of women exposed to the reform did not change in general for women exposed to the enforced reform this probability increased by at least 0 04 using stated preferences on fertility i find that fertility increased among women who want fewer children than their husband does but decreased among women who want more children than their husband does i examine the hypothesis that the reform increased for women the value of being married and hence decreased their intra household bargaining power consequently shifting fertility decisions in the direction of husbands preferences jel j13 j18 k10