euro dollar real exchange rate dynamics in an estimated two country model an assessment abstract several theoretical contributions using two country models have combined alternative forms of pricing under nominal rigidities with different asset market structures to explain real exchange rate dynamics we estimate a two country model using data for the united states and the euro area and study the importance of such alternative assumptions in fitting the data a model with local currency pricing and incomplete markets does a good job in explaining real exchange rate volatility and fits the dynamics of domestic variables well the complete markets assumption delivers a similar fit only when the structure of shocks is rich enough

crude oil prices and liquidity the bric and g3 countries unanticipated increases in the bric countries liquidity lead to significant and persistent increases in real oil prices global oil production and global real aggregate demand unanticipated shocks to the liquidity of developed countries over 1997 01 2011 12 do not the relative contribution to real oil price of liquidity in bric countries to liquidity in developed countries is much greater since 2005 than before 2005 china and india drive the results for the effect of bric countries liquidity on real oil price and global oil production china and india and brazil and russia reinforce one another on the effect of liquidity on global real aggregate demand due to the difference between countries as commodity importers exporters the liquidity of brazil and russia increases significantly with a rise in real oil price and that of china and india decreases significantly with a rise in real oil price it is shown that the strong rebound in oil price during 2009 is mostly due to strong effects of shocks to liquidity in the bric countries the analysis helps in assessing the importance of the bric economies in the upsurge of the real price of crude oil

cluster or capture manufacturing foreign direct investment external economies and agglomeration phelps n a cluster or capture manufacturing foreign direct investment external economies and agglomeration regional studies this paper reviews the nature and significance of external economies associated with multinational enterprise mne participation in the manufacturing industries of host economies it argues that the balance of forces of internalization and externalization is currently skewed towards the former and the interests of mnes rather than the latter and the interests of local and national communities and governments a stylized comparison of developmental and competition state interventions in relation to mnes and their foreign direct investment fdi suggests that in the absence of co ordinated interventions by governments there will commonly be a failure of the logic of internalization to permit localized processes of externalization indeed the experiences of the competition states of the uk and the usa highlight the potential for the partial internalization or capture of loc

state accumulation projects and inward investment regimes strategies abstractstate accumulation projects and inward investment regimes strategies regional studies based on kitchener waterloo ontario and saguenay lac saint jean quebec case studies we link inward investment regimes iir to the strategic relational approach to the state the state continues to be significant in 1 selecting multinational enterprise mne value chain segments 2 policies maximizing foreign direct investment fdi spillovers 3 empowering iir participants and 4 managing the institutionalized compromises underlying these policies quebec s developmental state qds reflects labour s greater power and has stronger levers to maximize fdi spillovers than ontario s competition state ocs however both confront significant fdi challenges

why has u s inflation become harder to forecast we examine whether the u s rate of price inflation has become harder to forecast and to the extent that it has what changes in the inflation process have made it so the main finding is that the univariate inflation process is well described by an unobserved component trend cycle model with stochastic volatility or equivalently an integrated moving average process with time varying parameters this model explains a variety of recent univariate inflation forecasting puzzles and begins to explain some multivariate inflation forecasting puzzles as well

preconditions windows of opportunity and innovation strategies successive leadership changes in the regional jet industry abstract we analyse the drivers of two successive leadership changes in the regional or mid sized jet market a particularly dynamic segment of the commercial aircraft industry in the first instance bombardier a canadian newcomer assumed leadership over the incumbents bae and fokker in 1995 in 2005 the brazilian firm embraer became the market leader in terms of number of regional jet deliveries our theoretical framework considers discontinuities in the building blocks of sectoral innovation systems as windows of opportunity for which challenger firms can devise strategic responses allowing them to assume market leadership it also considers preconditions as necessary capabilities limiting the number of potential challenger companies the analysis of leadership change shows that more efficient engines and technological improvements in subsystems changing oil prices business cycles liberalization of air transport services scope clauses and government interventions provided technological demand and regulatory windows of opportunity launching new aircraft families an architectural innovation targeting the 50 and the 100 120 seat niche markets gave first bombardier s crj family and later embraer s e jet family the leadership the fate of failed challengers and incumbents point to the importance of incumbent traps technological and financial capabilities the timing of windows of opportunity speedy strategic response a proper evaluation of future demand and sheer luck as long lead times and sunk costs entrap incumbents and other inadequately responding companies

foreign investment and spillover efficiency in an underdeveloped economy evidence from the mexican manufacturing industry abstract in this paper we consider the question whether differences in technical efficiency of mexican plants in part derive from spillover efficiency associated with foreign direct investment we use labour productivity as a measure of technical efficiency and relate this to capital intensity labour quality and scale of production we measure the degree of competition by different concentration indices and the final factor determining efficiency is the presence of foreign subsidiaries if there is a positive relation between efficiency of domestic plants and the foreign participation of various industries we conclude that there is a spillover of technical efficiency the empirical evidence from the study indicates that this is the case

do institutions matter for regional development rodriguez pose a do institutions matter for regional development regional studies this paper discusses whether institutions matter for regional development and how to integrate them in regional development strategies it is found that while institutions are crucial for economic development generating an institution based regional development strategy is likely to be undermined by the lack of definition of what are efficient institutions problems related to the measurement of institutions to their space and time variability to the difficulties in establishing the right mix of formal and informal institutions and to the endogeneity between institutions and economic development make one size fits all approaches to operationalizing institutions difficult the paper posits that in order to overcome these problems it is crucial to distinguish between the institutional environment and institutional arrangements that is to target not the institutions which shape the unique character of any territ

the innovation potential of new infrastructure development an empirical study of heathrow airport s t5 project abstract we propose a conceptual framework to analyze technology adoption in mega infrastructure projects and assess their potential to innovating large socio technical systems drawing on an in depth empirical analysis of heathrow airport s terminal 5 project we find that innovation hinges on technology adoption decisions that are governed systematically by two intertwined determinants assessment of expected profitability and development of absorptive capacity both of which are distributed across various interdependent actors on an ad hoc basis technological decisions are also affected by other factors namely attitudes toward risk politics and lack of established standards we reveal how a schedule driven project framing creates an underlying boundary condition that constrains the longitudinal process of building a whole collective with capacity to absorb new technologies the innovation potential of mega projects is thus subjected to a fundamental unifying tension on the one hand they offer a one off opportunity to invest in cutting edge technologies and innovate socio technical systems on the other hand project stakeholders have limited time to develop capacity to absorb novel technologies and negotiate differences on assessments of profitability and risk stakeholders may therefore be compelled to agree to adopt proven technologies upfront to reduce uncertainty and mitigate risks thus limiting the innovation potential of new infrastructure development

the domestic turn business processing outsourcing and the growing automation of kenyan organisations abstractafter observing the growth of the indian and filipino business process outsourcing bpo sectors kenyan policy makers and managers made substantial investments in international internet infrastructure and bpo marketing campaigns while observers continue to discuss the sector in terms of its international work opportunities in recent years the sector has increasingly focused on contracts sourced from kenyan and other east african clients the government has also refocused efforts on attracting international bpo companies this domestic turn signals both the difficulties of gaining access to overseas work due to the power of incumbents and the increasing use of the internet and ict enabled automation within kenyan organisations in effect better connectivity has enabled a two way globalisation of services kenyan bpo companies can access international work opportunities but connectivity has also contributed to the inflow of international business practices into kenya the conclusion examines wha

on the concept of territorial competitiveness sound or misleading in an era of globalisation the issue of territorial competitiveness is of increasingly central importance for regional development policies this paper aims to deal directly with the issue from a theoretical viewpoint in particular examining two related questions more thoroughly the question of the soundness of the concept of territorial competitiveness itself in terms of economic theory and the question of the new foundations on which this competitiveness is based using a cognitive evolutionary type approach

monetary policy and exchange rate volatility in a small open economy we lay out a small open economy version of the calvo sticky price model and show how the equilibrium dynamics can be reduced to a simple representation in domestic inflation and the output gap we use the resulting framework to analyse the macroeconomic implications of three alternative rulebased policy regimes for the small open economy domestic inflation and cpi based taylor rules and an exchange rate peg we show that a key difference among these regimes lies in the relative amount of exchange rate volatility that they entail we also discuss a special case for which domestic inflation targeting constitutes the optimal policy and where a simple second order approximation to the utility of the representative consumer can be derived and used to evaluate the welfare losses associated with the suboptimal rules

factors governing the development of high tech industry agglomerations a tale of three cities glasmeier a 1988 factors governing the development of high tech industry agglomerations a tale of three cities reg studies 22 287 301 high tech industries are thought to precipitate structural change in local economies through the creation of backward and forward linkages and new firm spinoffs case studies of high tech firms and products indicate interindustry linkage development is closely associated with product type and organizational structure of firms three product configurations one of a kind customized and standardized generate differing levels of linkage and spinoff potential firms producing customized products with highly variable input structures and established subcontracting relationships are more amenable to linkage and spinoff creation than firms producing one of a kind or standardized products the potential for linked industry development is further diluted because the spatial expansion path of high tech firms has been through the creation of technical branch plants which a

clusters dispersion and the spaces in between for an economic geography of the banal while the geographical clustering of economic activities remains an enduring feature of the industrial landscape and a perennial source of theoretical and empirical interest the geographical scale at which external economies and agglomerative effects are now claimed to operate is on the increase such changes in the spatial form and potential causes of agglomeration over time pose important questions how should we analyse changes in the spatial extent of external economies and agglomerative effects ought we to pay more attention to the sorts of banal economic spaces thrown up as part of increasingly diffuse forms of agglomeration to answer the first of these questions it is noted how economists and geographers have explained agglomerations often in the rather singular and invariant categories of pecuniary and marshallian externalities respectively this paper considers the relevance of neo marshallian analysis and the concept of borrowed size as variations on these classical principles to an analysis of the mobility and fixity of external economies and contemporary diffuse forms of agglomeration whilst reflecting important changes in the spatial extent of industrial agglomerations they are insufficiently sensitive to the interaction of different types of external economies with different scale dependencies in answering the second question it is noted that part of the value of analysing the economic basis of largely overlooked banal intermediate places lies in what they may reveal about the functioning of diffuse forms of agglomeration

global markets and national politics collision course or virtuous circle increasing exposure to trade foreign direct investment and liquid capital mobility have not prompted a pervasive policy race to the neoliberal bottom among the oecd countries one reason is that there are strong political incentives for governments to cushion the dislocations and risk generated by openness moreover countries with large and expanding public economies when balanced with increased revenues even from capital taxes have not suffered from capital flight or higher interest rates this is because the modern welfare state comprising income transfer programs and publicly provided social services generates economically important collective goods that are undersupplied by markets and that actors are interested in productivity value these range from the accumulation of human and physical capital to social stability under conditions of high market uncertainty to popular support for the market economy itself as a result arguments about the demise of national autonomy in the global economy are considerably overdrawn

understanding global liquidity abstract we explore the concept of global liquidity based on a factor model estimated using a large set of financial and macroeconomic variables from 24 advanced and emerging market economies we measure global liquidity conditions based on the common global factors in the dynamics of liquidity indicators by imposing theoretically motivated sign restrictions on factor loadings we achieve a structural identification of the factors the results suggest that global liquidity conditions are largely driven by three common factors and can therefore not be summarised by a single indicator these three factors can be identified as global monetary policy global credit supply and global credit demand

comparing new keynesian models of the business cycle a bayesian approach abstract the baseline new keynesian model cannot replicate the observed persistence in inflation output and real wages for sensible parameter values as a result several extensions have been suggested to improve its fit to the data we use a bayesian approach to estimate and compare the baseline sticky price model of calvo s 1983 staggered prices in a utility maximizing framework journal of monetary economics 12 383 398 and three extensions our empirical results are as follows first we find that adding price indexation improves the fit of calvo s 1983 staggered prices in a utility maximizing framework journal of monetary economics 12 383 398 model second models with both staggered price and wage setting dominate models with only price rigidities third introducing wage indexation does not significantly improve the fit fourth all model estimates suggest a high degree of price stickiness fifth the estimates of labor supply elasticity are higher in models with both staggered price and wage contracts finally the estimated inflation parameters of the taylor rule are stable across models

regional worlds from related variety in regional diversification to strategic coupling in global production networks this annual lecture paper bridges two influential but parallel literature strands on evolutionary economic geography eeg and global production networks gpn it argues that both strands are prem

knowledge flows externalities and innovation networks abstractknowledge flows externalities and innovation networks regional studies this editorial introduces the articles addressing the multifaceted and composite phenomenon of knowledge flows and externalities within innovation networks the papers offer a diversity of country contexts as well as analytical approaches and methods starting with methods they contain econometric analysis as well as social network analysis and combinations of the two while most of the papers use econometric analysis the level of analysis ranges from firm and individual level to aggregate analyses at the sectoral and regional level moreover patents are the main starting point but the proposed contributions show once more how different the approaches can be when using the same variables the country context is diverse and includes data sources from us and european regions

r d offshoring and the productivity growth of european regions the recent increase in r d offshoring has raised fears that knowledge and competitiveness in advanced countries may be at risk of hollowing out at the same time economic research has stressed that this process is also likely to allow some reverse technology transfer and foster growth at home this paper addresses this issue by investigating the extent to which r d offshoring is associated with productivity dynamics of european regions we find that offshoring regions have higher productivity growth but this positive effect fades with the number of investment projects carried out abroad a large and positive correlation emerges between the extent of r d offshoring and the home region productivity growth supporting the idea that carrying out r d abroad strengthens european competitiveness

inflation differentials between spain and the emu a dsge perspective this paper estimates a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of a currency union with nominal rigidities to explain the sources of inflation differentials between the economic monetary union emu and one of its member countries spain the paper finds that productivity shocks account for 85 of the variability of the inflation differential demand shocks explain a large fraction of output growth volatility but not variability in inflation differentials in addition the estimated model finds evidence that inflation dynamics are different across countries in the nontradable sector only finally the balassa samuelson effect does not appear to be an important driver of the inflation differential during the emu period

price stability with imperfect financial integration this paper studies whether the international monetary system can be affected by asymmetries in the cross country positions in the international financial markets i e the fact that some countries are large debtors while others are creditors an important channel that is explored is the interaction between international risk sharing and the stabilization role of monetary policy in each country the main finding is that the welfare costs of incomplete markets and the gains of deviating from a policy of price stability are increasing with the cross country asymmetries in the initial net international positions and in particular they become nonnegligible when the persistence of the shocks increases 1 of a permanent shift in steady state consumption for the welfare costs of incomplete markets and 0 2 for the gains of deviating from a policy of price stability when global imbalances become larger optimal monetary policy requires an increase in the volatilities of the real returns on assets and in particular of the nominal interest rates which should happen to be more correlated across countries

linking the insights of smith marx young and hirschman on the division of labour implications for economic integration and uneven development this article distinguishes between two types of division of labour discussed by smith the final product specialisation type has been adopted as the basis of mainstream trade models that champion the benefits of free trade the division of production operations type can be extended through the works of marx transition to modern industry based on forms of manufacture young industrial differentiation and hirschman linkages through this some countries started reaping more benefits from increasing returns engendering incipient uneven development that aggravates under unrestricted economic integration between them and the trailing countries in the modern era the leading countries trans national corporations have further shaped the international division of production operations resulting in different forms of enclave development when their activities are unregulated under recently reached multi lateral agreements that limit the use of subsidies and investment measures and strengthen the protection of intellectual property rights uneven development would be sustained some future research directions are considered

to what extent can foreign direct investment help achieve international development goals for fdi to help alleviate absolute poverty and stimulate economic growth in developing countries two conditions have to be met first developing countries need to be attractive to foreign investors second the host country environment in which foreign investors operate must be conducive to favourable fdi effects with regard to overall investment economic spillovers and income growth this paper argues that it is more difficult to benefit from fdi than to attract fdi the widely perceived concentration of fdi in few developing countries tends to obscure that in relative terms various small and poor countries are fairly attractive to fdi yet the mobilisation of domestic resources remains by far more important than attracting fdi for financing investment and stimulating economic growth furthermore high inward fdi is no guarantee for poverty alleviation and positive growth effects in particular the empirical evidence suggests that host country conditions typically prevailing in poor countries including weak institutions and an insufficient endowment of complementary factors of production constrain the growth enhancing and poverty alleviating effects of fdi the crux is that creating an environment in which fdi may deliver social returns will take considerable time exactly where development needs are most pressing

the dynamic capabilities of firms an introduction an expanded paradigm is needed to explain how competitive advantage is gained and held firms resorting to resource bas ed strategy attempt to accumulate valuable technology assets and employ an aggressive intellectual property stance however winners in the global marketplace have been firms demonstrating timely responsiveness and rapid and flexible product innovation along with the management capability to effectively coordinate and redeploy internal and external competences this source of competitive advantage dynamic capabilities emphasizes two aspects first it refers to the shifting character of the environment second it emphasizes the key role of strategic management in appropriately adapting integrating and re configuring internal and external organizational skills resources and functional competences toward changing environment 3 only recently have researchers begun to focus on the specifics of developing firm specific capabilities and the manner in which competences are renewed to respond to shifts in the business environment the dynamic capabilities approach provides a coherent framework to integrate existing conceptual and empirical knowledge and facilitate prescription this paper argues that the competitive advanis tage of firms stems from dynamic capabilities rooted in high performance routines z operating inside the firm embedded in the firm s processes and conditioned by its history it offers dynamic capabilities as an emerging paradigm of the modern business j firm that draws on multiple disciplines and advances with the help of industry studies in the usa and elsewhere

global investments and regional development trajectories the missing links abstractglobal investments and regional development trajectories the missing links regional studies regional economic development has been long conceptualized as a non linear interactive and socially embedded process these features were traditionally regarded as spatially mediated and highly localized however unprecedentedly fast technological change coupled with the intensification of global economic integration has spurred the need to place regional development in a truly open and interdependent framework despite substantial progress in the academic literature rethinking regional development in this perspective still presents a number of challenges in terms of concepts empirical evidence and policy approaches following an interdisciplinary assessment of how openness and connectivity proxied by one of the many cross border flows i e global investments interact with regional economic development trajectories this paper presents a picture of the geography of foreign investments from and

boundary choice interdependency evidence from the construction industry extant research on the theory of the firm has stressed the need to consider interdependencies when analyzing firm boundary choices we study the existence of interdependencies between boundary decisions using a unique database that includes detailed organizational information on 59 of the construction projects undertaken in the chilean housing sector between the years 2005 and 2009 specifically we show that integration between design and construction activities increases the likelihood of integration between ownership development and construction activities and vice versa this result is of a large magnitude supporting the view that boundary choices need to be studied in relation to each other a careful identification strategy also allows us to shed light on the mechanisms that likely drive this interdependency a coordination effect a transaction hazard effect and a production effect the latter is shown to be the most important mechanism at work suggesting that boundary choice complementarity is primarily motivated by the need to align investment incentives for the joint development of capabilities

international business cycles the quantitative role of transportation costs we evaluate the quantitative effects of introducing costs of transportation into an international trade model we model these costs through the introduction of international transportation services sector costs of transportation have substantial long run effects on welfare and may impact the pattern of trade however the business cycle effects on relative price movements and on international comovements are less pertinent since decreased trade volatility counteract the effects of transportation cost variations nevertheless it is also shown that costs of transportation combined with delivery lags go a long way towards resolving in particular the international comovement puzzle

systems integration a core capability of the modern corporation many of the world s leading firms are developing a new model of industrial organization based on systems integration rather than performing all productive tasks in house companies are building the capabilities to design and integrate systems while managing networks of component and subsystem suppliers this article illustrates how systems integration evolved from its military engineering based origins in the 1940s and 1950s to a modern day strategic capability across a wide variety of sectors taking a resource based view of the firm the article shows how systems integration capabilities underpin the way high technology companies compete by moving selectively up and downstream in the marketplace through the simultaneous twin processes of vertical integration and disintegration systems integrators of capital goods move downstream into service intensive offerings to expand revenue streams and increase profitability by contrast producers of high volume components and consumer goods use systems integration capabilities to exploit upstream relationships with input suppliers in both cases strategic options and capabilities are shaped by the life cycle of each product the article develops a clearer understanding of systems integration arguing that it now represents a core capability of the modern high technology corporation

the business cycle implications of the euro adoption in poland this article analyses the macroeconomic impact of the loss of autonomous monetary policy after the euro adoption in poland using a two country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium dsge model with sticky prices and wages we find that the euro adoption will have a noticeable impact on the magnitude of economic fluctuations in particular the volatility of output interest rate consumption and employment is expected to increase while the volatility of inflation should decrease also in order to quantify the effect of the euro adoption we compute the welfare effect of this monetary policy change our findings suggest that the welfare cost is not large

the globalisation of technology what remains of the product cycle model this paper reexamines two hypotheses associated with earlier versions of the product cycle model the first hypothesis that innovations are almost always located in the home country of the parent company is rejected on the basis of evidence drawn from one hundred years of u s patent office data the second hypothesis that the international dispersion of activity is led by technology leaders is historically valid however over the last twenty years technology leaders have been ahead instead in the globalization of technology that is in developing internal international networks to exploit the locationally differentiated potential of foreign centers of excellence c 1995 academic press inc copyright 1995 by oxford university press

the global business revolution the cascade effect and the challenge for firms from developing countries the global business revolution since the 1980s has witnessed an unprecedented degree of industrial consolidation and concentration of business power at a global level firms with powerful globally recognised technologies and or brands constitute the systems integrators at the apex of extended supply chains this paper examines the supply chains in four different sectors aerospace telecommunications automobiles and beverages it finds that these sectors have striking similarities in the way in which the core systems integrators have stimulated industrial concentration across the whole supply chain this cascade effect has profound implications for firms from developing countries in catching up at the firm level

optimal simple and implementable monetary and fiscal rules welfare maximizing monetary and fiscal policy rules are studied in a model with sticky prices money and distortionary taxation the ramsey optimal policy is used as a point of comparison the main findings are the size of the inflation coefficient in the interest rate rule plays a minor role for welfare it matters only insofar as it affects the determinacy of equilibrium optimal monetary policy features a muted response to output interest rate rules that feature a positive response to output can lead to significant welfare losses the welfare gains from interest rate smoothing are negligible optimal fiscal policy is passive the optimal monetary and fiscal rule combination attains virtually the same level of welfare as the ramsey optimal policy

testing the bargaining hypothesis in the manufacturing sector in developing countries the bargaining power model of hc mnc host country multinational corporation interaction conceives of economic nationalism in terms of rational self interest and assumes both inherent conflict and convergent objectives in extractive industries there is strong evidence that outcomes are a function of relative bargaining power and that as power shifts to developing hcs over time the bargain obsolesces a cross national study of the bargaining model using data from 563 subsidiaries of u s manufacturing firms in forty nine developing countries indicates that while the bargaining framework is an accurate model of mnc host country relationships manufacturing is not characterized by the inherent structurally based and secular obsolescence that is found in the natural resource industries shifts in bargaining power to hcs may take place when technology is mature and global integration limited in industries characterized by changing technologies and the spread of global integration the bargain will obsolesce very slowly and the relative power of mncs may even increase over time

money and inflation in the euro area a case for monetary indicators abstract this paper examines inflation indicators for the euro area by studying the relationship between inflation output money and interest rates using data spanning 1980 2001 the central finding is that both the output gap and the real money gap the difference between the real money stock and the long run equilibrium real money stock contain considerable information regarding future inflation in contrast the eurosystem s money growth indicator the difference between nominal money growth and a reference value the prominent first pillar in its monetary strategy contains little information about future inflation and no information beyond that contained in the output and real money gaps the predictive performance of the output gap has improved compared to that in a previous version of this paper most likely because of better estimation methods

how multinational subsidiary mandates are gained and lost a subsidiary mandate is a business or element of a business in which the subsidiary participates and for which it has responsibilities beyond its national market this research studied thirty one mandates in six canadian subsidiaries of u s owned multinational corporations a life cycle framework was proposed and used to explore the factors associated with the gain development and loss of mandates by subsidiaries two key findings emerged first it was shown that there is a risk in having a full scope world product mandate because it is possible to become marginal to the corporate strategy second it was observed that the engine of subsidiary growth is its distinctive capabilities and that for a mandate to be effective it must be built on those capabilities implications for mandate sustainability are proposed on the basis of these two insights

multinational experience and the creation of linkages with local firms evidence from the electronics industry the paper focuses on the nature and determinants of multinational firms creation of linkages with local firms with specific reference to the electronics industry the study of the recent evolution of international operations in this sector seems to highlight a relevant and somewhat generalisable pattern of industrial organisation and dynamics it is argued that the nature and intensity of multinational companies involvement into linkages with local counterparts are strongly influenced by a combination of factors that are partially inter dependent but still rely on different decision making centres on the one hand host countries long term investment policies in the field of human capital training and accumulation and on the other hand firms decisions to take roots in local contexts through the creation of foreign subsidiaries it is further suggested that human capital and subsidiaries will particularly favour the development of collaborative linkages with local firms compared to previous work of the authors on this subject this paper utilises an expanded and updated data set covering international operations of the top european and us electronics companies over the 1984 1995 period and attempts a more detailed and in depth analysis concerning the nature determinants and evolution in time of international growth strategies

investment shocks and business cycles abstract the origins of business cycles are still controversial among macroeconomists this paper contributes to this debate by studying the driving forces of fluctuations in an estimated new neoclassical synthesis model of the u s economy in this model most of the variability of output and hours at business cycle frequencies is due to shocks to the marginal efficiency of investment imperfect competition and to a lesser extent technological frictions are the key to their transmission although labor supply shocks explain a large fraction of the fluctuations in hours at very low frequencies they are irrelevant over the business cycle this finding is important because the microfoundations of these disturbances are widely regarded as unappealing

factors affecting university industry r d projects the importance of searching screening and signalling this paper presents an empirical analysis of the determinants of research cooperation between firms and public research organisations pros for a sample of innovating small and medium sized enterprises smes the econometric analysis is based on the results of the know survey carried out in seven eu countries during 2000 in contrast to earlier works that provide information about the importance of pros research we know the number of firm pro collaborative research and development r d projects this allows us to study the determinants of firm collaboration with pros in terms of both the propensity of a firm to undertake r d projects with a university do they cooperate or not and the extent of this collaboration number of r d projects two questions are addressed which firms cooperated with pros and what are the firm characteristics that might explain the number of r d projects with pros the results of our analysis point to two major phenomena first the propensity to forge an agreement with an academic partner depends on the absolute size of the industrial partner second the openness of firms to the external environment as measured by their willingness to search screen and signal significantly affects the development of r d projects with pros our findings suggest that acquiring knowledge through the screening of publications and involvement in public policies positively affects the probability of signing an agreement with a pro but not the number of r d projects developed in fact firms that outsource research and development and patent to protect innovation and to signal competencies show higher levels of collaboration

global technology development by colocating r d and manufacturing the case of swedish manufacturing mnes in this study we analyze the role of colocation between research and development r d and manufacturing for global technology development by multinational enterprises mnes the extant literature suggests that the main strategic role of colocated r d units is to locally adapt existing products and processes however data from 146 foreign r d units of sweden s 17 largest manufacturing mnes in 2013 show that they instead mainly develop new technology not only for the local and regional markets but to a large extent for the global market a likely explanation is that colocation positively contributes to joint problem solving and transfer of tacit knowledge between production and r d personnel all of which is necessary in new product development especially in industries characterized by complex products and systems and rapid technological change a theoretical implication is that depending on industry characteristics internal cross functional linkages between r d and manufacturing can be more critical than external supply and demand side factors when it comes to influence where r d units are located globally

tracking u s inflation expectations with domestic and global indicators abstract are foreign variables important for tracking u s inflation expectations this paper estimates a reduced form model that takes both domestic and global indicators of economic slack and inflationary pressures into account our main findings point towards the instability of the estimated parameters over the last four decades in particular global indicators appear to have played a statistically significant role in shaping forecasters expectations until the mid 1980s by contrast the u s monetary policy stance turns out to be relevant in the 1980s and 1990s we relate this finding to the more aggressive monetary policy conduct implemented by the fed since the end of the volcker experiment

deciding to enter a monetary union the role of trade and financial linkages abstract this paper evaluates the role of trade and financial linkages in the decision to enter a monetary union we estimate a two country dsge model for the u k economy and the euro area with financial intermediaries as in gertler and karadi 2011 we use the model to compute the welfare trade offs from joining the euro we compare the gains from trade that would occur after the adoption of the euro against the costs of relinquishing monetary policy both conventional and unconventional we also study the effects of the changes in the corporate risk premium observed during the recent crisis we find that in tranquil times when the risk premium volatility is low the net welfare gain of joining the monetary union is 2 4 percent of life time consumption during financial crises when there is a sharp increase in the volatility of the risk premium joining a monetary union would lead to a net welfare loss of 2 2 percent of life time consumption the welfare analysis underscores the importance of financial stability to sustain a monetary union over time

mutual productivity spillovers between foreign and local firms in china the existing literature treats advanced technology sourcing as the only cause of reverse productivity spillovers from local to foreign firms and implies that mutual spillovers between foreign and local firms can only happen in the developed world this paper argues that the diffusion of indigenous technology and local knowledge helps the productivity enhancement of multinationals so that there can be mutual spillovers even in a developing country the results from a large sample firm level econometric analysis and a comparative case study of seven companies in chinese manufacturing support this new argument as mutual spillovers are identified between local chinese firms and overseas chinese or oecd invested firms

levelling the uneven playing field inward investment interregional rivalry and the planning system tewdwr jones m and phelps n a 2000 levelling the uneven playing field inward investment interregional rivalry and the planning system reg studies 34 429 440 concern has been mounting recently over the increasing intensity of competition among british regions for foreign direct investment this competition has been at its fiercest in the case of a number of recent very largest inward investment projects with public concern focusing on wasteful bidding up of total incentives packages this government has been alerted to the unfair playing field across the uk in terms of the financial capital grants made to overseas companies to locate to certain regions of the uk particularly wales and have responded by developing initiatives intended to enhance the english regions however little attention has been focused to date on the other factors utilized by successful regions in the interregional rivalry for scarce inward investment these other factors comprise firstly the unique ways in whic

the transmission of international shocks a factor augmented var approach the empirical literature on the transmission of international shocks is based on small scale vars in this paper we use a large panel of data for 17 industrialized countries to investigate the international transmission mechanism and revisit the anomalies that arise in the empirical literature we propose a factor augmented var favar that extends the model in bernanke boivin and eliasz 2003 to the open economy the main results can be summarized as follows first the dynamic effects on the uk economy of an unanticipated fall of short term interest rates in the rest of the world are real house price inflation investment gdp and consumption growth peak after one year wages peak after two years cpi and gdp deflator inflation peak during the third year second a positive international supply shock makes the distribution of the components of the uk consumption deflator negatively skewed third in response to a domestic monetary shock we find no evidence of the exchange rate and liquidity puzzles and little evidence of the forward discount and price anomalies

how to promote clusters policy experiences from latin america abstract in this paper we propose to differentiate between three types of clusters when it comes to formulating cluster oriented policies in latin america survival clusters of micro and small scale enterprises owe their existence more to unfavorable macroeconomic conditions and less to entrepreneurial competence and dynamism their competitive potential is limited support measures should mainly aim at improving the conditions for survival since these clusters are important in creating employment opportunities the impetus should be to break through the low skills low investment vicious circle more advanced and differentiated mass producers have been flourishing in the import substitution era but are coming under enormous pressure with the transition to open economies in these clusters the main challenge is to create an environment that stimulates and supports learning innovation and constant upgrading clusters of transnational corporations are typically dominated by foreign firms not only at the final assembly stage but also in parts production these clusters often are showcases of best practice manufacturing this can be used to stimulate the upgrading of domestic firms notably by involving them in the supply chain of transnationals

mind the gap a monetarist view of the open economy phillips curve abstract in many countries inflation has become less responsive to domestic factors and more responsive to global factors over the past decades we introduce money and credit into the workhorse open economy new keynesian model with this framework we show that i an efficient forecast of domestic inflation is based solely on domestic and foreign slack and ii global liquidity global money as well as global credit is tied to global slack in equilibrium then motivated by the theory we evaluate empirically the performance of open economy phillips curve based forecasts constructed using global liquidity measures such as g7 credit growth and g7 money supply growth instead of global slack as predictive regressors using 50 years of quarterly u s data we document that these global liquidity variables perform significantly better than their domestic counterparts and outperform in practice the poorly measured indicators of global slack that global liquidity proxies for

global implications of national unconventional policies abstract financial integration in the markets for banks assets and liabilities makes balance sheet constraints highly correlated across countries resulting in a high degree of financial and macroeconomic interdependence likewise under financial integration unconventional policies aimed at stabilizing domestic financial and credit conditions could entail large international spillovers therefore stabilization by one country will also benefit other countries reducing incentives to implement credit policies in a classic free riding problem especially when these policies entail domestic costs we show that this outcome can emerge in an open economy model featuring financial intermediaries that face endogenously determined balance sheet constraints

is fdi integrating the world economy fdi s spectacular growth in diverse forms during the past two decades represented an important force generating greater economic integration fdi increased substantially in relation to global productive capacity cross border mergers and acquisitions component of fdi put domestic corporate laggards on notice and the spread of fdi to non tradable service sectors generated the possibility that these traditionally low productivity sectors would be brought closer to the standards of international efficiency yet fdi did not perform an integrating role in a more fundamental sense there is little evidence that fdi served to speed up income convergence across countries this was the case for two reasons first fdi flows remained highly concentrated second the benefits from fdi appear to have accrued principally where conditions were already conducive to investment and growth hence though cross country disciplines through bilateral regional and multilateral efforts are important in reducing the distortions that lead to misallocation of capital domestic efforts to raise absorptive capacity will ultimately be critical efforts to increase labour mobility as foreseen for example under gats could have a significant effect in raising the benefits from fdi as the more mobile labour serves to bridge the cultural institutional and contractual differences across nations

political aspects of mne theory political behavior by mnes has usually been ignored downplayed or passively treated in dominant economic models of the multinational enterprise in order to remedy this lacuna dunning s eclectic paradigm is expanded to integrate political dimensions in the analysis of ownership internalization and location advantages

a technique for obtaining improved proxy estimates of minimum optimal scale in the field of industrial organization the concept of economies of scale is of fundamental importance large minimum optimum scale mos 1 and significant unit cost reduction up to mos size together suggest the possibility of high industry concentration and significant barriers to entry 2 however a recent paper in this review caves shirazi and porter 1975 has pointed to the severe difficulties encountered by students of industrial organization in empirical analyses of these relationships the chief problem is that objective measures of mos i e engineering estimates 3 and of the cost disadvantage of suboptimal scale production are available for only a small minority of all u s manufacturing industries at say the 4 digit level since there are more than 400 such industries it is most unlikely that there ever will be much change in this situation this means that in large scale cross section statistical analyses various proxies for scale economy influences must be used this is also the case in other fields of economics in which the influence of industrial organization has been recently felt in the investigation of sectoral patterns of direct foreign investment and the commodity composition of international trade for example unfortunately little has been achieved in terms of the development of reliable proxies for scale economies or minimum optimal scale this relative poverty in the data seriously jeopardizes the empirical analyses undertaken in all the above mentioned fields the present paper is a first step at overcoming this deficiency it offers a critical analysis of the proxies currently in vogue and it suggests an alternative technique for generating estimates of mos that appear to be substantially superior to them

capacity utilization revisited software control and the growth of large technical systems this paper explains how a class of it intensive capital goods called control systems are used to co ordinate the flow of goods traffic materials funds services or information through complex supply production or distribution systems the paper examines how they increase productivity by improving the utilization of installed capacity creating economies of system that are distinct from the traditional economies of scale speed and scope the paper explains which sectors they are important in and how innovation in control technologies relates to architectural changes in large technical systems it is illustrated by case studies of four very different sectors elevators retailing telecommunications and investment banking while control systems improve efficiency and enable product innovation they also create reliability problems and can alter the social distribution of risk

estimating the evolution of money s role in the u s monetary business cycle we assess money s role in the post wwii u s business cycle by employing both fixed coefficient and rolling window bayesian estimations of a structural model of the business cycle with money our empirical evidence favors a specification with drifting parameters for money consumption nonseparability and the federal reserve s reaction to nominal money growth the role of money is estimated to have been important during the 1970s and declined afterward the omission of money produces severely distorted impulse response functions relative to the model with money money is found to be important in replicating the u s output volatility during the great inflation

the obsolescing bargaining model mnc host developing country relations revisited the traditional bargaining model of mnc host developing country relations has become obsolete today those relations are better understood as the result of a two tier multi party bargaining process tier 1 bargaining between the governments of host and home countries occurs bilaterally or through multilateral institutions it produces macro rules on fdi that affect micro negotiations in tier 2 per the traditional bargaining model the extent of fdi liberalization resulting from tier 1 bargaining varies predictably across home host country pairs and industries suggestions for testing the two tier bargaining model are also presented

does global liquidity help to forecast u s inflation we construct a measure of global liquidity using the growth rates of broad money for the g7 economies global liquidity produces forecasts of us inflation that are significantly more accurate than the forecasts based on us money growth phillips curve autoregressive and moving average models the marginal predictive power of global liquidity is strong at three years horizons results are robust to alternative measures of inflation

offshoring of routine tasks and de industrialisation threat or opportunity and for whom abstract offshoring or overseas sourcing of routine tasks generates efficiency gains that benefit consumers and workers with skills similar to those whose very jobs are threatened by offshoring essentially the interaction between offshoring footloose capital and agglomeration economies locks the comparative advantage of advanced nations in complex or strategic functions while labour services in routine tasks the coordination of which is easily codified are provided by low wage developing nations through the fibre optic cable in this framework the partial equilibrium view that offshoring is necessarily detrimental to workers in advanced nations is misguided because the implicit counterfactual that keeping the off shored jobs would have no macroeconomic impact on the economy is not warranted in addition inasmuch as routine tasks create few positive feedbacks trade in tasks can be an impediment to income convergence unlike trade in goods in short this paper qualifies the views that offshoring hurts workers in the north and accelerates income convergence between the north and the south

inflation as a global phenomenon some implications for inflation modeling and forecasting abstract we model local inflation dynamics using global inflation and domestic slack motivated by a novel interpretation of the implications of the workhorse open economy new keynesian model we evaluate the performance of inflation forecasts based on the single equation forecasting specification implied by the model exploiting the spatial pattern of international linkages underpinning global inflation we find that incorporating cross country interactions yields significantly more accurate forecasts of local inflation for a diverse group of 14 advanced countries including the u s than either a simple autoregressive model or a standard closed economy phillips curve based forecasting model we argue that modeling the temporal dimension but not the cross country spillovers of inflation does limit a model s explanatory power in sample and its pseudo out of sample forecasting performance moreover we also show that global inflation without domestic slack often contributes the most to achieve the gains on forecasting accuracy observed during our sample period 1984 q1 2015 q1 this observation according to theory is crucially related to the flattening of the phillips curve during this time period of increased globalization

determinants of the internationalization of regions the role and effectiveness of public policy measures banno m piscitello l and varum c determinants of the internationalization of regions the role and effectiveness of public policy measures regional studies this paper assesses the role of public policy measures on outward internationalization of regions by including financial and non financial incentives among the determinants of the international competitiveness of regions it is found that the former are important to enhance their active internationalization but that variables related to the knowledge and competence base of regions are even more so financial incentives related to equity participation as well as non financial incentives related to the provision of information come out highly significant in stimulating outward internationalization the empirical analysis is conducted for the twenty italian nuts 2 regions over the period 2003 2008

unconventional policies and exchange rate dynamics abstract we study exchange rate dynamics under cooperative and self oriented policies in a two country dsge model with unconventional monetary and exchange rate policies the cooperative solution features a large exchange rate adjustment that cushions the impact of negative shocks and a moderate use of unconventional policy instruments self oriented policies nash equilibrium however entail limited exchange rate movements and an aggressive use of unconventional policies in both countries our results suggest that sizable exchange rate depreciations are not always a symptom of beggar thy neighbor policies they could also reflect a desirable process of external adjustment that improves global welfare

two illustrations of the quantity theory of money of two central implications of the quantity theory of money that a given change in the rate of change in the quantity of money induces i an equal change in the rate of price inflation and ii an equal change in nominal rates of interest the illustrations were obtained by comparing moving averages of the three variables in question using quarterly u s time series for the period 1953 77 readers may find the results of interest as additional confirmation of the quantity theory as an example of one way in which the quantity theoretic relationships can be uncovered via atheoretical methods from time series which are subject to a variety of other forces or as a measure of the extent to which the inflation and interest rate experience of the postwar period can be understood in terms of purely classical monetary forces the theoretical background of the study is reviewed very briefly as it is familiar material in the next section the data processing methods are described and rationalized in section ii the illustrations

commodity prices and bric and g3 liquidity a sfavec approach this paper investigates the influence of liquidity in the major developed and major developing economies on commodity prices liquidity is taken to be m2 a novel finding is that unanticipated increases in the bric countries liquidity is associated with significant and persistent increases in commodity prices that are much larger than the effect of unanticipated increases in g3 liquidity and the difference increases over time over 1999 2012 bric liquidity is strongly linked with global energy prices and global real activity whereas g3 liquidity is not the impact of bric liquidity on mineral and metal prices is twice as large as that of g3 liquidity granger casualty goes from liquidity to commodity prices bric and g3 liquidity and commodity prices are cointegrated bric and g3 liquidity and global output and global prices are cointegrated we construct a structural factor augmented error correction sfavec model

globalisation regions and the state exploring the limitations of economic modernisation through inward investment over the past 10 years or so the uk has witnessed intense interregional competition for a small number of large inward investment projects these projects examples of foreign direct investment fdi from far east asia have been relied upon by nation states as panaceas to the economic problems being experienced within older industrial regions central government has adopted a non interventionist approach to fdi and has rather encouraged regional level institutions of governance to provide innovative and competitive packages of aid to the prospective investors through the creation of customised spaces by relying on this fdi local and regional level institutions within the uk have sought to reduce or eliminate those uncertainties associated with local governance and the planning system that would otherwise face potential investors we discuss these issues with reference to three case study fdi examples lg in south wales samsung in the north east of england and hyundai in scotland these projects provide good examples of the prestige attached to large fdi projects by regional and local agencies by passing normal local democratic processes instigating streamlined institutional processes and ignoring environmental protection policies to land the projects for particular regions but the collapse of the south east asian economies and the recent mothballing of both the hyundai and lg plants illustrate some very immediate problems regarding the unsustainability of the nation state both relying on the global market and subordinating local interstices to resolve regional economic problems overall the paper examines how particular state forms and practices operate to privilege certain types of interests and activities at certain scales and how particular state entities are attempting to capture agendas and decisions at particular scales of governance

latecomer systems integration capability in complex capital goods the case of iran s electricity generation systems this article introduces the concept of latecomer systems integration capability lsic as a construct for theory development in the area of emergence and competitiveness of producers of complex capital goods from developing economies the study draws on three bodies of the literature to conceptualize lsic and then presents an in depth case study of the development of lsic in a major iranian firm engaged in producing electricity generation systems although an exploratory study the findings suggest that in this case lsic evolved in a fairly short period of time from simple low cost project management skills to innovative capabilities supported by some sophisticated engineering and design know how leading to successes in local and overseas markets the conclusion touches on the implications of the study for theory business strategy and policy