meta paradigm change and the theory of the firm many seemingly unrelated debates on the theory of the firm are in fact part of a single deeper transformation of the social sciences as the foundational assumptions of 20th century social science have slowly been shown by science to be false new sub paradigms have emerged which cumulatively drop i theoretical assumptions about markets to explain firms ii epistemological assumptions about knowledge to explain diversity and iii metaphysical assumptions about causality to explain technical change debates occur across each of these levels

sargent versus simon bounded rationality unbound t j sargent called his latest venture bounded rationality in macroeconomics and tried to make connections with h a simon s program of bounded rationality and artificial intelligence the irony is that rational expectations theory born from the same mother carnegie mellon university as bounded rationality after trying to kill her big sister then apparently came around to embracing her in the person of sargent but was simon s interpretation of bounded rationality the same as sargent s did simon and sargent mean the same by artificial intelligence not quite the different interests of sargent and simon resulted in vastly different interpretations of bounded rationality and artificial intelligence copyright 1997 by oxford university press

permanent and transitory movements in labor income an explanation for excess smoothness in consumption many have argued that if labor income is difference stationary the permanent income hypothesis predicts that consumption should be relatively volatile in u s aggregate data labor income is well characterized as having a unit root however consumption turns out to be relatively smooth this anomaly is known as deaton s paradox i resolve deaton s paradox by providing decompositions of labor income into permanent and transitory components these preserve the univariate dynamic properties of labor income however when agents distinguish permanent and transitory movements in their labor income as the rational expectations hypothesis asserts they should the permanent income hypothesis correctly predicts the observed smoothness in consumption

testing for indeterminacy an application to u s monetary policy reply this paper considers a prototypical new keynesian model in which the equilibrium is undetermined if monetary policy is passive the likelihood based estimation of dynamic equilibrium models is extended to allow for indeterminacies and sunspot fluctuations we construct posterior weights for the determinacy and indeterminacy region of the parameter space and estimates for the propagation of fundamental and sunspot shocks according to the estimated model u s monetary policy post 1982 is consistent with determinacy whereas the pre volcker policy is not we find that before 1979 indeterminacy substantially altered the propagation of shocks

current real business cycle theories and aggregate labor market fluctuations hours worked and the return to working are weakly correlated traditionally the ability to account for this fact has been a litmus test for macroeconomic models existing real business cycle models fail this test dramatically we modify prototypical real business cycle models by allowing government consumption shocks to influence labor market dynamics this modification can in principle bring the models into closer conformity with the data our empirical results indicate that it does

external effects in u s procyclical productivity abstract in this paper we highlight a new dimension of the aggregate procyclical productivity phenomenon we show that estimates of the degree of returns to scale are larger for manufacturing as a whole than for two digit industries since this difference must be due to factors that are only internalized at the most aggregate level we term it an external effect this result rules out explanations based on own input variation such as true increasing returns and unmeasured factor utilization tied to own activity as the sole explanations for aggregate procyclical productivity we explore several potential explanations of this external effect

real business cycles and sunspot fluctuations are observationally equivalent abstract this paper points out that real business cycle models are observationally equivalent to externality models which we define as models with externalities and sunspots but without productivity shocks as far as standard first order systems are concerned however externality models turn out to be more flexible than rbc models this explains at least partly why previous studies have found that externality models perform better than standard rbc models at generating realistic business cycle behavior our results cast doubt on the arguments of farmer and guo 1994 and caballero and lyons 1992

environmental compliance and energy exploration and production application to offshore oil and gas an integrated investment production regulatory model is developed to examine the economic consequences of proposed environmental regulations on firms in the offshore oil and gas industry ocs related environmental regulatory issues the general modeling approach and selected simulation results are discussed the results show that the impacts of these regulations on ocs firms can be significant in terms of the reduction in after tax net present value the distribution of economic rent and minimum field size results also indicate that at the firm level the influences of different sets of regulatory proposals vary significantly with more stringent regulations having bigger effects

indivisible labor lotteries and equilibrium abstract this paper considers an economy where labor is indivisible and agents are identical although the discontinuity in labor supply at the individual level disappears as a result of aggregation it is shown that indivisible labor has strong consequences for the aggregate bahavior of the economy it is also shown that optimal allocations involve lotteries over employment and consumption

indivisible labor and the business cycle abstract a growth model with shocks to technology is studied labor is indivisible so all variability in hours worked is due to fluctuations in the number employed we find that unlike previous equilibrium models of the business cycle this economy displays large fluctuations in hours worked and relatively small fluctuations in productivity this finding is independent of individuals willingness to substitute leisure across time this and other findings are the result of studying and comparing summary statistics describing this economy an economy with divisible labor and post war u s time series

environmental and land use regulation in nonrenewable resource industries implications from the wyoming checkerboard this paper examines how the oil and soning that these effects should be similar gas industry responds to changes in environmental to those of production and property taxes and land use regulations pertaining to drilling by like stollery however they do not conexamining differences in regulatory practices on sider the situation where environmental federal and private land a simulation model for regulations directly affect explo ration and wyoming is used to estimate losses of oil and gas development output over the next 60 years because of higher activities in any case the drilling costs found on federal property the pres limited number of studies in this area and ent value of these losses comes to about 800 mil their narrow scope is surprising in light of lion a lso this case study is of interest because it the importance of environmental complishows that future production is more sensitive to ance costs to firms that produce from nonchanges in environmental regulations that apply to renewable resources and because of the drilling than to changes in severance taxes levied observation by jaffe et al 1995 that a on production

indeterminacy and increasing returns abstract we investigate properties of the one sector growth model with increasing returns under two organizational structures capable of reconciling the existence of aggregate increasing returns with competitive behavior by firms the first involves input externalities the second involves monopolistic competition we show for parameters in close accord with recent literature on real business cycles that the model displays an indeterminate steady state that can be exploited to generate a model of business fluctuations driven by self fulfilling beliefs in our first class of models growth is generated by exogenous increases in factor productivity in the second class the marginal product of capital is large enough for endogenous growth journal of economic literature classification numbers e00 e3 o40

externalities and nonlinear discounting indeterminacy abstract this paper studies a one sector model with externalities and nonlinear discounting loosely if the bellman equation for a standard model is written as v k max u v k then the bellman equation for our model is written as v k max u b v k for some concave function b our model assumes that period utility u is linear in consumption and leisure and the production function exhibits increasing social returns and nonincreasing private returns we establish the existence of a steady state under fairly general conditions and give a necessary and sufficient condition for local indeterminacy we show that regardless of the degrees of increasing returns and externalities there exists a discount function b such that indeterminacy arises we also show that in a certain sense as the degree of increasing returns converges to zero the variability of discounting the second derivative of b required to generate indeterminacy also converges to zero numerical examples are provided the main results are also extended to a one sector model with fixed labor supply

growth externalities and sunspots abstract in this paper we consider a simple model of neo classical capital accumulation with production externalities in which a continuum of identical infinitely lived agents produce output from a standard stationary neo classical production technology and choose their actions to maximize a discounted sum of single period utilities because of the presence of the externality in production the model exhibits sunspot equilibria

risk aversion risk sharing and joint bidding a study of outer continental shelf petroleum auctions collusion and heterogeneity across firms may introduce asymmetry in bidding games a major difficulty in asymmetric auctions is that the bayesian nash equilibrium strategies are solutions of an intractable system of differential equations we propose a

productivity shocks and real business cycles abstract productivity shocks play a central role in real business cycles as an exogenous impulse to macroeconomic activity however measured solow prescott residuals do not behave as an exogenous impulse rather econometric evidence provided in this paper indicates that 1 money interest rates and government spending granger cause these impulses and 2 a substantial component of the variance of these impulses between one quarter and one half is attributable to variations in aggregate demand these results are robust to a number of econometric issues including measurement errors specification of the production function and certain forms of omitted real variables

optimal pricing use and exploration of uncertain natural resource stocks abstract units of natural resources to be called mines are assumed distributed over an unexplored territory according to a poisson process in space at any moment total reserves and unexplored land are given society can determine the rate of consumption and the rate of exploration reserves are drawn down by consumption and increased by discoveries made during exploration the amount of unexplored land is decreased by exploration at any moment the payoff of society is a concave function of consumption less a linear function of exploration with future payoffs discounted optimal policies are considered and in particular it is shown for a large amount of unexplored land the shadow prices of reserves and of unexplored land move in random cycles but show only a slight upward tread thereby casting some light on the failure of mineral prices to rise at the market rate of interest

on comparing monopoly and competition in exhaustible resource exploitation abstract it is widely believed that exhaustible resource monopolies do not enjoy as much market power as standard non resource monopolies and may even produce in a socially optimal way we argue that this paradoxical result arises from an inappropriate comparison methodology when similar assumptions are applied to the resource and the conventional cases we show that the resource monopoly behaves as expected i e restricts supply

modelling cognitively bounded rationality an evaluative taxonomy abstract since its origins in the 1950s the notion of bounded rationality has been incorporated into economic theory using an array of methodological approaches this paper presents a taxonomy by which these approaches can be categorized and understood evaluating each approach against a range of important criteria at a time when the foundations of economic theory are being re examined this paper should be viewed as a first step towards an assessment of the appropriate role that this more realistic view of cognition should take in different areas of economic theory and also of the desirable characteristics of models that incorporate it

real business cycles and the animal spirits hypothesis abstract we calibrate a quantitative equilibrium macroeconomic model with an aggregate technology that is subject to increasing returns and show that this model may display fluctuations at business cycle frequencies even when there are no shocks to the fundamentals of the economy these fluctuations are due to the self fulfilling beliefs of investors which we call animal spirits we compare the impulse response functions predicted by our model and by two other more standard models with a four variable vector autoregression on u s data our animal spirits economy is the most successful of the three at matching broad features of the dynamic responses in the data journal of economic literature classification numbers e00 e3 e32

real business cycles in this paper we demonstrate how certain very ordinary economic principles lead maximizing individuals to choose consumption production plans that display many of the characteristics commonly associated with business cycles our explanation is entirely consistent with i rational expectations ii complete current information iii stable preferences iv no technological change v no long lived commodities vi no frictions or adjustment costs vii no government viii no money and ix no serial dependence in the stochastic elements of the environment we also provide a completely worked out example of the type of artificial economy we have in mind the time series properties of the example exhibit some major features of observed business cycles although this type of model may not be capable of explaining all of the regularities in actual business cycles we believe that it provides a useful well defined benchmark for assessing the relative importance of factors e g monetary disturbances