temporary foreign workers and firms theory and canadian evidence abstract temporary foreign worker tfw programs have grown considerably in size when uncapped we develop a simple efficiency wage model to explain this phenomenon and examine the empirical evidence for it we also use the model to evaluate the implications of tfw programs for domestic workers in our framework firms that have been unable to find domestic workers may hire tfws at the wage previously advertised to domestic workers due to the lower outside option for tfws than domestic workers tfws will exert more effort for the same wage firms would thus prefer to hire otherwise identical tfws rather than domestic workers our model identifies an unintended consequence of a tfw program since the repercussions of a failed domestic job search are less severe if a tfw may be hired instead firms have an incentive to lower their wage offers made to domestic workers using canadian data we find that relative to domestic workers tfws work longer hours have lower rates of absenteeism and are less likely to be laid off consistent with higher effort in our model moreover for tfws from home countries with a relatively high outside option effort is lower than for tfws from other countries resume travailleurs etrangers temporaires et entreprises theorie et exemple canadien en l absence de plafonnement les programmes de travailleurs etrangers temporaires ptet se sont considerablement developpes afin d expliquer ce phenomene et d en examiner les preuves empiriques nous avons developpe un modele simple de salaire d efficience nous avons egalement utilise ce modele pour evaluer l incidence des ptet sur les travailleurs domestiques dans notre cadre d etude les entreprises peinant a trouver une main d uvre locale peuvent embaucher des travailleurs etrangers temporaires au salaire prealablement propose aux travailleurs domestiques compte tenu d options exterieures plus faibles les travailleurs etrangers temporaires deploieront davantage d efforts pour le meme salaire les entreprises prefereront donc embaucher des travailleurs etrangers par ailleurs identiques plutot que des travailleurs domestiques notre modele identifie une consequence inattendue aux ptet etant donne que les consequences d une recherche d employes domestiques infructueuse sont attenuees par l embauche de travailleurs etrangers temporaires les entreprises sont incitees a diminuer les offres salariales proposees aux travailleurs locaux en exploitant les donnees propres au canada nous avons decouvert que les travailleurs etrangers temporaires travaillaient plus d heures avaient des taux d absenteisme inferieurs et etaient moins susceptibles de se faire congedier que les travailleurs domestiques conformement au concept d effort accru developpe dans notre modele en outre pour les travailleurs etrangers temporaires originaires de pays a options exterieures relativement elevees l effort sera moindre que pour ceux provenant d autres pays

inequality in the globalizing asia this article investigates the impact of globalization on the inequality of asia it is the first attempt to examine 11 asian countries panel data allowing nonlinearity between globalization and inequality from 1960 to 2003 with robustness check we also survey the literature on growth globalization and inequality and reflect their endogenous relationships to our article we found the significant turning point of globalization at which inequality starts decreasing as further globalization proceeds it will offer us policy implications for the ongoing process of globalization in the asian economies

the peter principle a theory of decline some have observed that individuals perform worse after being promoted the peter principle which states that people are promoted to their level of incompetence suggests that something is fundamentally misaligned in the promotion process this view is unnecessary and inconsistent with the data below it is argued that ability appears lower after promotion purely as a statistical matter being promoted is evidence that a standard has been met regression to the mean implies that future ability will be lower on average firms optimally account for the regression bias in making promotion decisions but the effect is never eliminated rather than evidence of a mistake the peter principle is a necessary consequence of any promotion rule furthermore firms that take it into account appropriately adopt an optimal strategy usually firms inflate the promotion criterion to offset the peter principle effect and the more important the transitory component is relative to total variation in ability the larger

the inexorable and mysterious tradeoff between inflation and unemployment this paper discusses the short run tradeoff between inflation and unemployment although this tradeoff remains a necessary building block of business cycle theory economists have yet to provide a completely satisfactory explanation for it according to the consensus view among central bankers and monetary economists a contractionary monetary shock raises unemployment at least temporarily and leads to a delayed and gradual fall in inflation standard dynamic models of price adjustment however cannot explain this pattern of responses reconciling the consensus view about the effects of monetary policy with models of price adjustment remains an outstanding puzzle for business cycle theorists several years ago i gave myself a peculiar assignment i decided to try to summarise all of economics in ten simply stated principles the purpose of this task was to introduce students to the economic way of thinking in the first chapter of my textbook principles of economics i figured if god could boil all of moral philosophy down to ten commandments i should be able to do much the same with economic science most of the ten principles i chose were microeconomic and hard to argue with they involved the importance of tradeoffs marginal analysis the benefits of trade market efficiency market failure and so on i allocated the last three principles to macroeconomics the first of these was a country s standard of living depends on its ability to produce goods and services which i viewed as the foundation of all growth theory the second was prices rise when the government prints too much money which i took to be the essence of classical monetary theory the last of my ten principles is the subject of today s lecture society faces a short run tradeoff between inflation and unemployment perhaps not surprisingly this statement turned out to be controversial when my publisher sent out the manuscript for review a few readers objected

development and inequality revisited three decades after the seminal article of kuznets 1955 and one decade after the empirical investigation of ahluwalia 1976b the relationship between income inequality and economic developement is still controversial this paper examines the above relationship within a time series cross section framework in a sample of countries which are representative of the non centrally planned economies of the world we use gdp per capita in real un international comparison project dollors as an indicator of a country s level of economic development the results lend support to the kuznets inverse u hypothesis although other factors relfecting the institutional setting of a country are found to affect income inequality significantly during the development process as well similar results are obtained if we exclude developed countries from the sample

trade policy and income inequality new evidence abstract this paper uses recently available data to investigate the link between income inequality and trade protection it finds that among less developed countries more open economies experienced increased income inequality during the late 1980s trade policy has had no effect on income inequality in developed countries

heterogeneity tournaments and hierarchies tournament contracts are characterized that simultaneously elicit first best efficient effort levels and self selection of risk neutral heterogeneous workers into ability specific contracts comparisons across self selected ability types are shown to be sometimes necessary to attain efficiency rationales are explored for not commonly observing such contracts in hierarchical organizations

should the kuznets effect be relied on to induce equalizing growth evidence from post 1950 development abstract the large body of cross sectional statistical research assessing 1 a kuznets inverted u for less developed countries ldcs 2 b a turning point is analyzed an alternative methodology is presented those countries which started in 1950 well below the turning point in rgdp and which reached an rgdp well above the turning point by 1980 are utilized as key cases income distribution data and assessments from individual country experts are combined with historical comparative microanalyses for each key case brazil costa rica greece japan malaysia south korea taiwan and turkey to construct patterns of income distribution during this crucial growth period it is demonstrated that the jury is still very much out on the kuznets inverted u for ldcs and the notion of a turning point should be rejected copyright 1997 elsevier science ltd

advertising learning and consumer choice in experience good markets an empirical examination this article empirically analyzes different effects of advertising in a nondurable experience good market a dynamic learning model of consumer behavior is presented in which i allow both informative effects of advertising and prestige or image effects of advertising this learning model is estimated using consumer level panel data tracking grocery purchases and advertising exposures over time empirical results suggest that in this market advertising s primary effect was that of informing consumers the estimates are used to quantify the value of this information to consumers and evaluate the welfare implications of an alternative advertising regulatory regime

reputation and hierarchy in dynamic models of employment the employment relationship with employees ability and their actions both private information thus combining adverse selection with moral hazard is modeled as a repeated game with self enforcing contracts being perfect bayesian nash equilibria under termination contracts the equilibrium contract structure consists of a hierarchy of ranks finite in number even though ability is continuous reputation acts as an effective device for worker discipline without the need for involuntary unemployment selection by bonding is not in general incentive compatible but selection by promotion of employees through the ranks is many other features correspond to observed employment structures

economic development and income inequality an overlooked regression constraint simon kuznets proposed the important hypothesis that during the course of secular economic growth of a country income inequality first increases but begins to decline after reaching a peak the hypothesis has received enormous attention in the literature on growth development and distribution several explanations and theoretical models for the phenomenon have been suggested by kuznets himself and other scholars including j cromwell g s fields j b knight j b nugent and s robinson 2 although the explanations differ in detail most of them rest on postulates of economic growth within a dualistic framework or measurement errors of some kind

china s uneven progress against poverty while the incidence of extreme poverty in china fell dramatically over 1980 2001 progress was uneven over time and across provinces rural areas accounted for the bulk of the gains to the poor though migration to urban areas helped the pattern of growth mattered rural economic growth was far more important to national poverty reduction than urban economic growth agriculture played a far more important role than the secondary or tertiary sources of gross domestic product gdp rising inequality within the rural sector greatly slowed poverty reduction provinces starting with relatively high inequality saw slower progress against poverty due both to lower growth and a lower growth elasticity of poverty reduction taxation of farmers and inflation hurt the poor external trade had little short term impact

competitive threats constraint and contagion in the multiunit firm do unexpected events experienced by one line of business adversely affect other lines of business in diversified firms we use fine grained data on the film industry in the united states to show that such contagion frequently occurs when a distributor opens a film in theaters and concurrently releases an older title to home video being exposed to a competitive threat a period of unexpected volatility in the theatrical market at the time of a film opening leads the distributor to suffer a loss in sales on the concurrent home video release further analysis revealed that managers responded to these competitive threats by intensifying the advertising and promotion of their films in theaters suggesting that they diverted resources and attention away from home video our results therefore suggest that the effects of unexpected events do spread across lines of businesses within firms and consequently that resource constraints may limit the ability of firms to engage effectively in multiple markets

that s news to me information revelation in professional certification markets i introduction market economies devote substantial resources to certify product quality educational testing services ets offers sat tests for college applicants u s news world report ranks universities underwriters laboratories certifies consumer and industrial products moody s reports bond ratings and accounting companies audit financial reports for public corporations in theory if one party of the trade possesses superior information about product quality a professional certificate can alleviate the information asymmetry and therefore attenuate the lemons problem and facilitate trade akerlof 1970 1 the informational role of professional certification has profound implications for markets yet little is known empirically how professional certifiers behave and compete indeed while theories have advanced to making welfare comparisons across market structures franzoni 1999 lizzeri 1999 and regulators express concerns about the market power of certifiers u s securities and exchange commission sec 2003 little is known about the primitive facts on market structure and certifier performance for example what information does a monopoly certifier provide who obtains useful information from such a certificate how do subsequent entrants compete with the incumbent and whether and to what extent entrants provide information to the market are all fundamental questions to which we have limited insights the lack of clean empirical evidence is not surprising since observational data alone might confound criteria differences and sorting effects rendering field data suggestive but not entirely compelling indeed even when field data circumvent these problems too many theoretically relevant factors change simultaneously to allow a clean comparative static test the goal of this paper is to use two controlled field experiments to provide empirical insights on these basic questions using sportscard grading as an example we employ an approach field experiments that might prove useful for future scholars studying related phenomena for decades a popular tool in the literature to answer such questions has been an event study event studies infer information content by comparing for example market prices before and after the release of bond ratings or analysts earnings report assuming market price is a sufficient statistic of the information available to the market the event study approach has two caveats it is difficult to control simultaneous information flow and it is difficult to pin down the exact timing of the arrival of the certificate rumors may spread before the official announcement we overcome these difficulties by collecting data from one natural field experiment and one framed field experiment see harrison and list 2004 for a detailed discussion of natural versus framed field experiments both experiments are undertaken in naturally occurring settings where the key theoretical factors are identifiable and arise endogenously our chosen market the sportscard grading industry is attractive in this regard for several reasons first there is a generally agreed upon set of traits for grading sportscards and quality is a major determinant of price second the industry is relatively young and thus far has been unregulated third there has been little change in the grading technology but the industry has evolved dramatically over the last 20 yr specifically the first grading service professional sports authenticators psa began operating in 1987 and now belongs to a publicly traded company due to institutional reasons detailed below psa has not changed its grading system since its inception in 1999 the market expanded and two competitors entered the market sportscard guaranty llc sgc entered in early 1999 and beckett grading services bgs entered later in 1999 all three services continue operating today and at least 14 other fringe grading companies have joined the market since 1999

valuing managerial flexibility an application of real option theory to mining investments abstract the value of managerial flexibility is assessed using data on prices costs grades reserves ore extraction and metal output for a panel of canadian copper mines a real option model is estimated and solved for project and option values most empirical researchers i consider the initial investment decision but neglect flexible operation thereafter ii assume that price is stochastic but ignore cost and reserve uncertainty and iii model price as a nonstationary stochastic process the evolution of three state variables price cost and reserves is assessed here differences in assumptions compared to others are found to lead to large differences in estimated project and option values

luck effort and reward in an organizational hierarchy using the personnel records of a large british financial sector employer we investigate how workers respond to remuneration differences and luck in the promotion system the results confirm that workers respond to larger remuneration spreads by working harder increased certainty in the promotion process also has this effect there appears to be no difference between men s and women s reactions to promotion incentives gender differences in the raw data therefore appear not due to incentives we need to look elsewhere for an explanation

presidential coattails versus the median voter senator selection in us elections abstract we show that senators elected in presidential elections are more ideologically extreme than senators elected in midterm elections this finding is in contrast to the literature suggesting that voters in presidential elections are more ideologically moderate than voters in midterm elections to explain this incongruence we propose a theory of spillover effects in which party labels enable voters to update their beliefs about candidates across contemporaneous races for office unexpected support for a candidate in one race carries marginal candidates from the same party in other races our theory implies that presidential coattails may skew representative government away from the median voter ideal

financial slack strategy and competition in movie distribution organizations that enjoy some slack are believed to make good use of it in their strategic decisions using panel data on firms in the u s film distribution industry between 1985 and 2007 this article examines how financial slack affects the volume of new product introductions the competitive strategies for those releases and their economic performance unexpectedly successful sleeper films are exploited as a source of exogenous financial slack in the econometric analysis the results suggest that unexpected financial slack leads to more product introductions less marketing support for the new products and no improvement in performance these findings are consistent with an attribution process in which managers attempt to replicate extraordinary success even if it is largely random providing real world evidence of a mechanism recently developed in theory and laboratory research

information and the skewness of music sales this paper studies the role of product discovery in the demand for recorded music we show that releasing a new album causes a substantial and permanent increase in sales of the artist s old albums especially if the new release is a hit patterns in these backward spillovers suggest that they result from consumers discovering the artist upon hearing the new release to explore the implications of consumers incomplete information we estimate a simple learning based model of market demand our results imply that the distribution of sales is substantially more skewed than it would be if consumers were more fully informed

an empirical study of observational learning this article provides an empirical examination of observational learning using data from an online market for music i find that observational learning benefits consumers producers of high quality music and the online platform i also study the role of pricing as a friction to the learning process by comparing outcomes under demand based pricing to counterfactual pricing schemes i find that employing a fixed price the industry standard can hamper learning by reducing the incentive to experiment resulting in less consumer surplus but more expected revenue for the platform

economic contests comparative reward schemes contests are situations in which an individual s reward depends on his performance relative to others students are graded on a curve the candidate with the most votes gets the political office the underling who performs best is promoted to the executive position contests are useful in dealing with indivisible rewards reducing monitoring costs and minimizing risks from common uncertainties they are employed to sort potential participants and once they have entered to induce appropriate effort from them with monitoring precision and prize spreads as potential choice variables optimal contest structures are derived for fair and unfair contests among equal and unequal participants the converse problems of climbing low ability individuals enter the contest designed for high ability candidates and slumming are shown to be manageable

mean reversion in investment decisions the case of hollywood one explanation for the comparatively lower quality of movie sequels is selection bias known in personnel economics as the peter principle only abnormally successful movies are selected for a sequel another explanation is a deterministic depreciation in quality due to the decline in the novelty of the sequel s characters and storyline both explanations predict that relative to the original the sequel s performance will revert towards the mean we develop a structural model to decompose the two explanations and estimate its parameters using detailed data on 306 franchise films and 2 823 non franchise films between 1995 and 2014 parameter estimates provide evidence of selection bias for action adventure and horror movies and evidence of a deterministic decline in quality for comedies

advance production in oral double auction markets abstract the effects of advance production in oral double auction markets are investigated price distributions under advance production ap and production to demand td conditions do not differ however production and efficiency in ap markets tend to be lower than in td markets

experience and inventory management in double auction markets abstract prior research indicates that double auction markets with inexperienced traders and production to demand consistently perform very close to the competitive ideal with high efficiency and average prices in the competitive equilibrium range when the environment becomes more complex with the introduction of advance production and costless inventory carryover the efficiency of the double auction market with inexperienced traders is reduced and production and sales are lower in comparison with the production to demand double auction market the central finding of this paper is that even when traders are experienced the efficiency losses associated with this more complex double auction environment remain

up or out rules in the market for lawyers we examine how up or out rules operate as a screening device in the market for lawyers using data on large new york law firms we show that firm growth is a slow and uncertain process because performance as an associate is not an especially informative signal about whether a lawyer will make a good partner and because the costs of mistaken promotion are relatively high a newly hired associate is unlikely to be a suitable partner and the screening process is relatively imprecise firm growth therefore contributes between 5 7 of the present value of profits of a law firm

the term structure of interest rates over the business cycle abstract whether real gnp is assumed to be trend stationary or difference stationary which implies that shocks have transitory or permanent effects is critically important in explaining the behavior of the forward risk premium the term risk premium and changes in the yield curve over the business cycle while this is the main result there are two additional results of interest first although movements in the nominal yield spread are useful in predicting future economic activity these movements are not enough to separate real from nominal shocks the source of the shock can be determined if movements in the spread and shifts in the nominal yield curve are used jointly second the yield differential which is defined as the difference between the yields on inflation indexed bonds and nominal bonds is generally a biased predictor of expected inflation and may signal the wrong information about changes in expected inflation

the big problem of forecasting small change the united states mint recently reviewed approaches to forecasting the demand for new coin this paper reports on methods used to determine fundamental attributes of the data and uses these to help better determine appropriate model specification in order to better plan coin production in particular the debate regarding trend versus difference stationarity in macroeconomic trending data is considered the interest in the present paper is limited to applying a well known unit root test procedure to an untested macrodata set changes in us coin demand to see whether the test is useful in guiding the specification to improved forecast performance it is found that the forecast results are somewhat sensitive to the way in which the data are seasonally adjusted and lessons learned from this case study indicate that unit root tests are useful in guiding model specification

a measure of the u s output gap abstract an autoregressive distributed lag regression of the unemployment rate on output growth is structurally stable over the 1890 1986 period inverting this equation yields a measure of the output gap which is not subject to the spurious detrending problem

invited paper learning models an assessment of progress challenges and new developments learning models extend the traditional discrete choice framework by postulating that consumers have incomplete information about product attributes and that they learn about these attributes over time in this survey we describe the literature on learning models that has developed over the past 20 years using the model of erdem and keane as a unifying framework erdem t keane m 1996 decision making under uncertainty capturing dynamic brand choice processes in turbulent consumer goods markets marketing sci 15 1 1 20 we describe how subsequent work has extended their modeling framework and applied learning models to a wide range of different products and markets we argue that learning models have contributed greatly to our understanding of consumer behavior in particular in enhancing our understanding of brand loyalty and long run advertising effects we also discuss the limitations of existing learning models and potential extensions one key challenge is to disentangle learning as a source of

the effect of information on product quality evidence from restaurant hygiene grade cards this study examines the effect of an increase in product quality information to consumers on e rms choices of product quality in 1998 los angeles county introduced hygiene quality grade cards to be displayed in restaurant windows we show that the grade cards cause i restaurant health inspection scores to increase ii consumer demand to become sensitive to changes in restaurants hygiene quality and iii the number of foodborne illness hospitalizations to decrease we also provide evidence that this improvement in health outcomes is not fully explained by consumers substituting from poor hygiene restaurants to good hygiene restaurants these results imply that the grade cards cause restaurants to make hygiene quality improvements

a comparison of posted offer and double auction pricing institutions this paper presents an experimental study of a computerized posted offer pricing mechanism that captures many of the basic institutional features of retail exchange in the u s posted offer market performance is evaluated relative to double auction market performance using two supply and demand designs subject experience with the trading mechanism is explicitly considered as an experimental treatment variable the market data suggest that prices tend to be higher and efficiency lower under posted offer pricing relative to double auction however the institutional effect appears to interact with other design conditions when feasible the predictive power of competitive nash and limit price theoretic equilibria are empirically evaluated

trends random walks and tests of the permanent income hypothesis abstract recent studies find that consumption is excessively sensitive to income these studies assume that income is stationary around a deterministic trend the data however do not reject the hypothesis that disposable personal income is a random walk with drift if income is indeed a random walk then the standard testing procedure is greatly biased toward finding excess sensitivity moreover if income follows either a more general non stationary process or a borderline stationary process this procedure is also seriously biased

income inequality government expenditures and growth this paper investigates the relationship between income inequality and growth by utilizing the recently published deininger squire data set most of the recent empirical growth literature suggests a negative relationship between inequality and growth on the basis of reduced form growth equations this is also found in the author s study some effort is made to discuss the argument behind the perceived negative relationship between inequality and growth according to the fiscal policy approach a high level of income inequality leads to a higher demand for redistribution which in turn affects growth through resource allocation out of investment or through incentive distorting taxes needed to fund the redistribution it is suggested that the last mentioned relationship between government expenditure and growth is more likely to be non linear positive with small amounts and negative with large amounts such a relationship however is only found for public goods thus government expenditure on law and ord

are output fluctuations transitory according to the conventional view of the business cycle fluctuations in output represent temporary deviations from trend the purpose of this paper is to question this conventional view if fluctuations in output are dominated by temporary deviations from the natural rate of output then an unexpected change in output today should not substantially change one s forecast of output in say five or ten years our examination of quarterly postwar united states data leads us to be skeptical about this implication the data suggest that an unexpected change in real gnp of 1 percent should change one s forecast by over 1 percent over a long horizon

classic promotion tournaments versus market based tournaments as initially formulated in the seminal analysis of lazear and rosen 1981 an important perspective for understanding the role of promotions in firms is the tournament perspective that is a promotion and in particular the wage increase associated with a promotion is a prize that serves as an incentive for workers to exert effort and take other actions beneficial to the firm such as the accumulation of human capital in this paper i consider whether the best way to model promotion tournaments is by having firms commit to prizes ex ante as in lazear and rosen s initial formulation or whether promotion prizes should be modeled as arising from the signaling role of promotions and the competition between firms for promoted workers

the provision of incentives in firms i ncentives are the essence of economics despite many wide ranging claims about their supposed importance there has been little empirical assessment of incentive provision for workers the purpose of this paper is to critically overview existing work on the provision of incentives since the interests of workers and their employers are not always aligned a large theoretical literature has emphasized how firms design compensation contracts to induce employees to operate in the firm s interest this literature has reached into many areas of compensation and has pointed to a multitude of different mechanisms that can be used to induce workers to act in the interests of their employers these include piece rates options discretionary bonuses promotions profit sharing efficiency wages deferred compensation and so on my objective here is to evaluate this literature in the light of a growing empirical literature on compensation where possible i will address the literature from two perspectives first an underlying assumption of this literature is that individuals respond to contracts that reward performance accordingly i consider whether agents behave in this way and whether these responses are always in the firm s interest second i address whether firms write contracts with these responses in mind in other words do contracts look like the predictions of the theory incentives are provided to workers

international evidence on persistence in output in the presence of an episodic change this paper uses some newly developed methods and techniques to examine the dynamic properties of international output in the presence of a structural break we provide statistical evidence to show that the unit root test results can in some cases be sensitive to whether a one time structural break in the data is modelled exogenously or endogenously however in most cases the unit root test results remain robust to specification of the structural break exogenously or endogenously moreover we find that the null hypothesis of a unit root in output can be rejected in favour of a flexible trend alternative for a number of countries such as canada denmark france and the united states

advance production in experimental markets the effects of advance production in posted offer and double auction markets are investigated previously observed differences between these institutions in mean contract prices and in the distribution of producers and consumers surpluses under the production to demand condition disappear when sellers make output decisions and incur production costs prior to the start of trading the double auction institution remains more efficient under advance production the results suggest that the differential effects of alternative trading institutions on market outcomes may be partially offset by the production conditions characterizing a market

the effect on income distribution of development the growth rate and economic strategy abstract an analysis of cross section and time series data for 83 countries confirms some and contradicts other work on income distribution new findings include a dualistic socio political system is highly unfavorable for equality neither the extent of government intervention in the economy nor the rate of manufactured exports are systematically related to income distribution the analysis confirms that there is no systematic relationship between equality and the rate of economic growth educational participation and a reduction in the share of primary exports in gdp are both favorable for equality there is some support for the kuznets hypothesis that inequality increases as per capita income rises to about 400 and then declines with further income increase but the empirical support is not strong and may be weakening over time these findings lead to more optimistic conclusions then other work that rapid growth in a mixed economy is quite consistent with unchanged or even improved income distribution even at early stages of development

valuing new goods in a model with complementarity online newspapers many important economic questions hinge on the extent to which new goods either crowd out or complement consumption of existing products recent methods for studying new goods rule out complementarity by assumption so their applicability to these questions has been limited i develop a new model that relaxes this restriction and use it to study competition between print and online newspapers using new micro data from washington dc i estimate the relationship between the print and online papers in demand the welfare impact of the online paper s introduction and the expected impact of charging positive online prices

income inequality and economic development evidence from the threshold regression model abstract using panel data we investigate the relationship between income inequality and economic development we employ a threshold regression model that allows for endogenous income thresholds and find strong evidence of a two regime split in our sample

an opposing responses test of classic versus market based promotion tournaments we use a systems based econometric method to show that classic and market based tournament models are empirically distinguishable since the role of risk differs across these models implementing the method using a large finnish worker firm matched panel we find support for classic tournaments given that promotions depend on relative performance the firm s wage structure is convex promotion probabilities are decreasing in the number of competitors performance is increasing in the wage spread and workers and firms adjust their choice variables in opposite directions when the variance of the stochastic component of worker performance changes

can the kuznets effect be relied on to induce equalizing growth abstract the use of internationally comparable income data to test kuznet s inverted u hypothesis introduces several econometric problems this study a explains and corrects for these econometric problems b assesses the sensitivity of estimated results to alternative functional specifications and sample variations c provides a more rigorous test for structural change between more and less developed countries in the phasing of the inequality trend and d estimates the time likely to elapse before various of the developing countries reach the turning point the study s findings offer broad support for kuznets s hypothesis but do not support the advocacy of development policies focused exclusively on growth for low income countries growth s equalizing phase cannot be anticipated to set in for half a century

international evidence on shock persistence structural change nonlinearities and subsample robustness testing for unit roots and the related issue of measuring shock persistence has attracted considerable theoretical and applied econometric interest the issue of the size of the random walk component raised by cochrane journal of political economy 96 893 920 1988 has been extended in the work of other authors leung economics letters 40 435 44 1992 in particular considers the effects of structural breaks on measures of persistence in this paper we consider new results for the effects of structural change nonlinearities and subsample robustness on spectral based measures of persistence illustrating the potential problems via an updated and extended version of the cogley journal of political economy 98 501 18 1990 data set we find that significant structural breaks exist in the majority of the series investigated furthermore measured persistence differs markedly across distinct periods with the assumption of common growth rates over very long periods leading on occasions to potentially

exploring the impact of trade and investment on income inequality a cross national sectoral analysis of the developed countries this article explores the relationship between international integration and domestic inequality in the developed countries in the mid 1980s and early 1990s the analysis examines two major modes of integration trade and direct investment disaggregating each by economic sector and distinguishing between imports and exports and inbound and outbound flows and stocks in measuring income inequality extensive use is made of micro data sets that have recently become available through the luxembourg income study lis which provides much more detailed and comparable data on income inequality than has heretofore been the case in particular lis data can be aggregated at the level of economic sector and permit the comparison of pre and post government income the study finds few significant relationships between either trade or investment and sectoral income distribution the overall conclusion is that economic globalization is not a critically important factor in explaining recent trends in income inequa

inertial inflation indexation and price stickiness evidence from brazil abstract this paper evaluates the inertial inflation hypothesis for brazil the hypothesis posits that indexation created a feedback mechanism such that one time supply shocks were fully transmitted into permanent changes in inflation a theoretical model is used to show that this outcome is based on the assumption of perfect price flexibility however with price stickiness indexation does not produce inertial inflation the degree of inertia is then compared for two periods one without indexation 1945 1963 and one with indexation 1969 1985 finally vector autoregressive representations are estimated for the latter period allowing for price stickiness the empirical results do not support the hypothesis

asian growth and african development since world war ii integration with the world economy has arguably been the chief route from poverty to wealth japan initially exported cheap goods and later moved on to more technologically sophisticated products when japan became rich korea taiwan province of china hong kong sar and singapore replaced japan as low wage exporters and when these countries moved on to more sophisticated products thailand and malaysia filled their niche more recently china has become an important exporter of manufactured goods and india is increasingly moving into services exports no mainland sub saharan african country has experienced this type of transformation even countries that have undergone major economic reforms seem far from takeoff forecasts for africa based on extrapolation of its historical experience tend to be bleak we consider whether it is possible to construct a model consistent with the data which supports a more optimistic view motivated by the asian experience the model assumes countries can potentially undergo rapid economic transformation only if they integrate into the world economy by producing nontraditional exports for the purposes of constructing a long run model of the world economy we are agnostic on whether exports matter due to technological learning by doing spillovers political economy considerations or other factors as each developing country transforms and becomes advanced it further improves trade opportunities for the remaining developing countries for example if china becomes rich a billion more people will live in countries that import toys and a billion fewer will live in countries that export them our approach is similar to that of robert e lucas 2000 in that we assume growth prospects improve with the state of the world economy potentially generating accelerating world growth unlike lucas 2000 however we allow for differential population growth between rich and poor countries the steady state proportion of the world population living in advanced countries depends on the rate at which developing countries transform into advanced ones and on the magnitude of population growth differentials between these two groups of countries the economic transformation process will overcome the demographic trend leading to a prosperous steady state only if the initial share of world population in advanced countries is above a threshold a simple calibration using historical data suggests that the longrun prospects for lagging developing regions may hinge on a race between economic growth in china and india and population growth in the lagging regions particularly africa if the former wins we may eventually observe accelerating global growth this suggests some caution should be used when interpreting empirical studies on growth determinants as these results may not be stable over time country characteristics that lead to poor performances today may well allow for rapid growth in the future if and when the world economy reaches a sufficiently advanced stage our model also suggests a queuing effect where the order in which countries are absorbed into the world economy is determined by the quality of their policies economic reforms in one country may potentially have a large impact on growth if they move the country to the front of the queue but similar reforms in all countries may have a much smaller impact on world growth

some aspects of income distribution in rural bangladesh 1988 some aspects of income distribution in rural bangladesh applied economics vol 20 no 8 pp 1007 1015

persistence of shocks on seasonal processes the paper addresses the issue of measuring the persistence of shocks on seasonally integrated processes observed at quarterly intervals we show that the amplitude of the limiting cycle described by the cumulated impulse response function provides a parametric measure of persistence and that cochrane s normalized variance ratio can correspondingly be extended as a non parametric counterpart for illustrative purposes the latter is applied to the italian gdp and to the output of the agricultural sector copyright 1996 by john wiley sons ltd

the effects of rent asymmetries in markets characterized by advance production abstract the results of 40 controlled market sessions are reported the effects of advance production and the distribution of the market surplus between buyers and sellers on the relative performance of posted offer and double auction markets are compared with the relative performance of posted offer and double auction institutions in markets with production to order performance differences between the two institutions across production conditions as the surplus distributions are varied are similar but not identical the distribution of surplus appears to have an effect on the performance measures in advance production markets

level of development rate of economic growth and income inequality most of the research mentioned above focused on estimating the relation between the level of economic development usually proxied by real gross domestic product gdp per capita and income inequality so as to judge whether an inverted u pattern is observed however notwithstanding the potential significance of the kuznets paradigm it should be evident that level of development or income is just one determinant of income inequality and that rate of economic growth is another important and related factor nevertheless very few studies have investigated how the rate of growth is related with inequality at various levels of development or income except perhaps incidentally and through an additive growth term in kuznets type models of inequality even the studies that did consider the growth inequality nexus have reported somewhat contradictory results for example an additive gdp growth term in m ahluwalia s regression estimates indicated a statistically insignificant equalizing effect of growth and in a later work he noted that

refitting the kuznets curve using a gender specific threshold model abstractprevious studies have reached mixed conclusions regarding the relationship between inequality and per capita income these studies however fail to consider gender differences in income inequality and how these may impact on the relationship between income inequality and per capita income using australian taxation statistics we derive three sets of gini coefficients i e female male and total for the period 1950 2013 we then examine the relationship between inequality and real per capita income and find that a gender specific threshold panel regression outperforms three other conventional models our findings suggest that one set of coefficients does not fit all in that the use of aggregate and constant coefficients may mask variations within and between gender inequality over time

brand extension as informational leverage the marketing literature refers to the concept of brand capital and provides empirical evidence that firms with a large stock of well established brands have an advantage in introducing new products this paper develops a theory of brand extension as a mechanism for informational leverage in which a firm leverages off a good s reputation in one market to alleviate the problem of informational asymmetry encountered in other markets it is shown that brand extension helps a multi product monopolist introduce a new experience good with less price distortion thus the paper provides a theoretical foundation for the concept of brand capital

persistence in foreign exchange rates abstract this study examines the long run behavior of seven daily nominal exchange rates using univariate and multivariate persistence measures our results indicate that for some currencies the long run behavior deviates from that of a pure random walk in certain periods the multivariate estimates reflect the effect of both the ems exchange rate mechanism and increased post louvre accord coordinated intervention a large portion of the effect of a shock in one currency on another currency s long run value can be attributed to contemporaneous effects on the other currencies

population technology and growth from malthusian stagnation to the demographic transition and beyond this paper develops a unied growth model that captures the historical evolution of population technology and output it encompasses theendogenous transitionbetween three regimes that have characterized economic development the economy evolves from amalthusianregime wheretechnologicalprogressis slow andpopulationgrowthprevents anysustainedriseinincomepercapita intoapost malthusianregime wheretechnological progress rises and population growth absorbs only part of output growth ultimately a demographic transition reverses the positive relationship between income and population growth andtheeconomyentersamoderngrowthregimewithreducedpopulationgrowth

umbrella branding as a signal of new product quality an example of signalling by posting a bond i present a signalling model in which a multiproduct firm can use its reputation as a bond for quality by using a brand name for an established product when it introduces a new experience good as out of equilibrium beliefs are specified a false signal may be taken to imply that both the established and the new product are of low quality in contrast the absence of a signal leaves open the possibility that one of the two products is of high quality hence the signal can be credible without excessive sunk costs as long as the bond posted is sufficiently large

male female wage differentials in job ladders much of the male female wage differential exists because men and women are assigned to different jobs within narrow job categories there is no male female differential only a tortured taste theory of discrimination can reconcile these facts we argue that differential movement along job ladders entails comparative advantage so the ability standard for promotion is higher for women this implies that more able women will be passed over in favor of less able men women assumed to have the same ability distribution as men earn less the differential reflects females lower promotion probability not within job discrimination

sabotage in tournaments evidence from a laboratory experiment although relative performance schemes are pervasive in organizations reliable empirical data on induced sabotage behavior are almost nonexistent we study sabotage in repeated tournaments in a controlled laboratory experiment and observe that effort and sabotage are higher for higher wage spreads additionally we find that also in the presence of tournament incentives agents react reciprocally to higher wages by exerting higher effort destructive activities are reduced by explicitly calling them by their name sabotage communication among principal and agents can curb sabotage when they agree on flat prize structures and increased output if sabotage is not possible the principals choose tournament incentives more often this paper was accepted by peter wakker decision analysis

further investigation of the uncertain trend in us gdp the presence of deterministic or stochastic trend in us gdp has been a continuing debate in the literature of macroeconomics ben david and papell 1995 found evidence in favour of trend stationarity using the secular sample of maddison 1991 more recently murray and nelson 2000 correctly criticized this finding arguing that the maddision data are plagued with additive outliers ao which bias inference towards stationarity hence they propose to set the secular sample aside and conduct inference using a more homogeneous but shorter time span post wwii sample in this article we re visit the maddison data by employing a test that is robust against ao s our results suggest the us gdp can be modelled as trend stationary process

sickness absence an international comparison this paper shows how internationally and intertemporally consistent information on sickness absence can be constructed from labour force surveys and describes some important features of data that we have generated using the luxembourg employment study we also analyse sickness absence rates by age gender and other socio economic characteristics of workers these relationships prove to be similar across countries with widely differing mean rates of absence in this dataset workers with longer tenure tend to have higher absence rates even when age is controlled for absence is also positively correlated with higher usual hours of work we show how internationally and intertemporally consistent information on sickness absence can be constructed from labour force surveys lfs and describe some important features of data that we have generated using the luxembourg employment study les such data fill an important gap in available information about absence since they have the potential to provide answers to a number of issues that remain unresolved in its study there is now substantial evidence going back to the work of the industrial fatigue research board in the 1920s and 1930s i that sickness absence is not purely a response to a medical condition workers who have access to compensation payments are more likely to be absent than those without buzzard and shaw 1952 the higher the rate of compensation the more absences workers are likely to take buzzard and shaw 1952 furthermore the higher the rate of compensation the longer absences are likely to be barmby et al 1991 the analysis of sickness absence is placed firmly in the agenda of economics by the idea that sickness absence rates are the consequence of choices that can be mediated by financial and other incentives the provision and level of sickpay is typically determined at two levels by negotiation between firms and their workforces and by government regulation interfirm variations in absence and their correlates are not well understood coles and treble 1996 have argued that the marginal cost of an absence is partially in the control of firms and can be usefully seen as driven by the nature of the technology adopted these theoretical arguments remain largely unexplored empirically but the ability to compare similar industries across different countries is likely to be revealing this paper was drafted during a visit to ceps instead in the summer of 1999 the research was funded by a grant of the european commission under the tmr programme access to large scale facilities hosted by iriss c i at ceps instead in differdange luxembourg we are also grateful for support from the leverhulme foundation through a grant to the institute for labour research at the university of essex and to colleagues at the ilr for their constructive comments acknowledgements to les data providers are given at the end of the paper we would also like to thank paul alkemade elena bardasi and pascal garin for their help any remaining errors are our own and the views expressed herein are not necessarily those of ceps instead 1 see for example vernon and bedford 1928

distribution and growth cross country evidence an endogenous growth model is presented to examine the determinants of economic growth and income distribution and their relationship three major findings from a cross country analysis of 45 countries are 1 a higher level of educational attainment of the labour force has an equalizing effect on income distribution while the larger the dispersion of schooling among the labour force the greater the income inequality 2 human capital investment as well as physical capital investment are significant factors contributing to economic growth and 3 income inequality has a negative effect on economic growth supporting the existence of a complementary relationship between equity and growth

equal worth equal opportunities pay and promotion in an internal labour market using personnel data from a large financial company the authors find some evidence that women have to meet more stringent criteria than men for promotion but that much of the difference between men and women s attainment is due to their attributes for example lack of work experience is more important quantitatively than glass ceilings in preventing the preferment of women the authors data also suggest that the differential barriers confronting women are greatest at the lower end of the job ladder and that men and women may receive equal treatment once senior grades have been reached copyright 1996 by royal economic society

dynamics of income distribution in this paper we have obtained closed form solutions in cass koopmans growth models with heterogeneous agents the relationship between the form of the production function and the dynamics of income distribution is made explicit we then use this relationship to determine what production structure is simultaneously consistent with facts on growth and income inequality our empirical findings give support to models with decreasing returns in the reproducible factor jel classification d3 o1 o4 dans ce memoire les auteurs obtiennent des solutions pour des modeles de croissance a la cass koopmans dans le cas ou les agents sont heterogenes on explicite la relation entre la forme de la fonction de production et la dynamique de la repartition des revenus on utilise alors cette relation pour determiner quelle structure de production est arrimee aux faits connus a la fois quant a la croissance economique et a la repartition des revenus les resultats empiriques supportent les modeles ou les rendements sur les acteurs de production reproductibles sont decroissants