state fiscal institutions and empty nest migration are tiebout voters hobbled abstract using the health and retirement study and a national panel of local fiscal data we test a lifecycle model of tiebout sorting on average cross state empty nest movers presumed to be out of fiscal equilibrium experience large fiscal gains in the form of reduced exposure to local school spending and property taxes while local empty nest movers experience no fiscal adjustment we find evidence that within state fiscal adjustment is constrained by state institutions that limit local discretion empty nest households moving within states with school finance equalization do not engage in tiebout consistent fiscal adjustment while those moving within states lacking school finance equalization adjust substantially

spatial search migration and regional unemployment the dominant explanation of spatial unemployment in the literature assumes that workers must live in an area in order to be able to access job offers this gives rise to compensating variations in local wages and unemployment however for many occupations search is clearly conducted over longer distances from a home base in the model presented in this paper migration and unemployment are analysed both when the optimal search field is local as in the traditional model and when search is conducted over longer distances i compare equilibria in these two regimes and discuss the implications for regional policy

economic dynamics in the malthusian era evidence from the 1609 spanish expulsion of the moriscos we investigate economic dynamics in the malthusian era using the 1609 expulsion of moriscos from spain sharp population declines in former morisco districts were accompanied by decreased output and increased per capita output while these short run results are consistent with standard malthusian predictions malthusian convergence was delayed up to 1786 in former morisco districts archival sources and historical accounts suggest extractive institutions and cultural differences may have contributed to delayed convergence in population and output per capita this historic episode provides an unusually rich setting to examine malthusian dynamics highlighting the potential for sustained differences in per capita output in the malthusian era

la dolce vita hedonic estimates of quality of life in italian cities colombo e michelangeli a and stanca l la dolce vita hedonic estimates of quality of life in italian cities regional studies this paper investigates quality of life in italian cities using the hedonic approach it analyses micro level data for housing and labour markets to estimate compensating differentials for local amenities within four domains weather environment services and society large compensating differentials in housing markets are found whereas the effects on wages are relatively small quality of life varies substantially across space and is generally better in large and medium sized cities of the centre north services and social conditions are strongly related to overall quality of life it is also found that across cities quality of life is positively and significantly related to subjective well being

the most dangerous idea in federal reserve history monetary policy doesn t matter the hundredth anniversary of the founding of the federal reserve is a natural time to reflect on the record of us monetary policy it is widely agreed that this record is far from perfect and that there have been some major failures of monetary policy over the past century our thesis is that overly pessimistic views about the power of monetary policy have been a critical source of these failures there is little doubt that the opposite problem an overinflated belief in the power of monetary policy has also contributed to important policy errors most famously policymakers in the mid 1960s believed that they faced a longrun inflation unemployment trade off and thus that monetary policy could move the economy to a sustained path of very low unemployment and low inflation this belief led them to pursue highly expansionary policy starting the economy down the road to the inflation of the 1970s for example romer and romer 2002 and primiceri 2006 the record of such errors has led some to argue that perhaps the most impor tant attribute of a successful central banker is humility for example booth 2012 in this paper we present evidence that an unduly pessimistic view of what monetary policy can accomplish has been a more impor tant source of policy errors and poor outcomes over the history of the federal reserve at various times in the 1930s faced with the great depression federal reserve officials believed that the power of monetary policy to combat the downturn or stimulate recovery was minimal in

mobility behavior of the elderly mobility patterns of the elderly provide a particularly interesting theoretical subcase of a more general migration model which interacts individual specific traits e g health and retirement status and location specific traits e g amenities rents and wages the spatially invariant incomes pensions dividends etc of the retired are shown to lead to migration toward areas where the wage and rent compensation for amenities necessary for spatial equilibrium occurs primarily in the labor market rather than in the land market empirical evidence appears to be consistent with theoretical expectations more investigation however is clearly desirable

reap what you sow agricultural technology urbanization and structural change abstract this paper studies how productivity enhancing agricultural technology affects urbanization by provoking structural change we investigate these issues using a natural experiment in the united states the results show that technologies which improve crop productivity lead to a less urbanized economy as economic activity relocates from manufacturing and services towards agriculture the effects are highly persistent and are driven by the technology increasing agricultural labor demand our findings highlight the potentially unintended disruptive force of innovative technologies

amenity values versus land constraints the spatial effects of natural landscape features on housing values when local amenities are tied to natural land use features that cannot be developed for physical or regulatory reasons the corresponding implicit price estimates from a hedonic housing model may reflect local supply constraints and confound estimation of natural amenity values using a spatial simultaneous equations model of housing values and migration we examine whether local supply constraints from natural or preserved features have influenced the housing market results indicate that constraints associated with the presence of water bodies and some types of open space preservation have contributed to higher housing prices offsetting local demand for these natural amenities jel c31 r23

the impact of supply constraints on house prices in england we test the theoretical prediction that house prices respond more strongly to changes in local earnings in places with tight supply constraints using a unique panel dataset of 353 local planning authorities in england between 1974 and 2008 exploiting exogenous variation from a policy reform vote shares and historical density to identify the endogenous constraints measures we find that regulatory constraints have a substantive positive impact on the house price earnings elasticity the effect of constraints due to scarcity of developable land is largely confined to highly urbanised areas and uneven topography has a quantitatively less meaningful impact

migration regional equilibrium and the estimation of compensating differentials in this study we have developed an improved model of net migration that encompasses both equilibrium and disequilibrium components instrumental variables fixed effects estimates of the model with time series data for 51 areas in the united states over the period 1971 1988 support the importance of both equilibrium and disequilibrium factors in migration excerpt

regulations and productivity growth in banking evidence from transition economies this paper examines the relationship between the regulatory and supervision framework and the productivity of banks in 22 countries over the period 1999 2009 we follow a semiparametric two step approach that combines malmquist index estimates with bootstrap regressions the results indicate that regulations and incentives that promote private monitoring pmon have a positive impact on productivity restrictions on banks activities relating to their involvement in securities insurance real estate and ownership of nonfinancial firms also have a positive impact regulations relating to the first and second pillars of basel ii namely capital requirements capr and official supervisory power spr do not have in general a statistically significant impact on productivity over the study period although they appear to gain in importance following the onset of the financial crisis in 2007 the latter finding indicates that stringent capital and supervisory standards have positive productivity effects when financial pressures peak our results are robust when controlling for various country specific features and alternative estimation approaches

the unequal geographic burden of federal taxation in the united states workers in cities offering above average wages cities with high productivity low quality of life or inefficient housing sectors pay 27 percent more in federal taxes than otherwise identical workers in cities offering below average wages according to simulation results taxes lower long run employment levels in high wage areas by 13 percent and land and housing prices by 21 and 5 percent causing locational inefficiencies costing 0 23 percent of income or 28 billion in 2008 employment is shifted from north to south and from urban to rural areas tax deductions index taxes partially to local cost of living improving locational efficiency

earnings functions when wages and prices vary by location economists generally assume implicitly that the return to schooling is invariant across local labor markets we demonstrate that this outcome pertains if and only if preferences are homothetic a special case that seems unlikely our theory predicts that returns to education will instead be relatively low in expensive high amenity locations our analysis of u s data provides support for this contention returns to college are especially low in such cities as san francisco and seattle our findings call into question standard empirical exercises in labor economics that treat the returns to education as a single parameter

quality of life firm productivity and the value of amenities across canadian cities we estimate quality of life and productivity differences across canada s metropolitan areas in a hedonic general equilibrium framework these are based on the estimated willingness to pay of heterogeneous households and firms to locate in various cities which differ in their wage levels housing costs and land values using 2006 canadian census data our metropolitan quality of life estimates are somewhat consistent with popular rankings yet find canadians care more about climate and culture quality of life is highest in victoria for anglophones montreal for francophones and vancouver for allophones and lowest in more remote cities toronto is canada s most productive city vancouver is the overall most valuable city qualite de vie productivite des entreprises et la valeur des avantages dans les diverses villes canadiennes on evalue les differences entre la qualite de vie et la productivite des entreprises entre les zones metropolitaines au canada a l aide d un cadre d analyse d equilibre general hedonique ces metriques sont basees sur l estimation de la volonte de payer de menages et d entreprises heterogenes pour se localiser dans diverses villes qui different tant pour ce qui est des niveaux de salaires des couts de l habitation et des prix des terrains a l aide des donnees du recensement canadien de 2006 on construit des evaluations de la qualite de vie des diverses zones metropolitaines qui s arriment convenablement aux ordonnancements en vogue mais on decouvre que les canadiens portent une attention particuliere au climat et a la culture la qualite de vie est la plus elevee a victoria pour les anglophones a montreal pour les francophones et a vancouver pour les allophones et la plus faible pour les villes eloignees des grands centres toronto est la ville la plus productive vancouver est generalement la plus appreciee

public conservation land and employment growth in the northern forest region we quantify the effect that public conservation lands have on employment growth in the northern forest region of the united states a model of simultaneous employment and net migration growth is estimated with data on non metropolitan counties from 1990 to 1997 exogenous variables include the 1990 share of the land base in public conservation uses we find that net migration rates were higher in counties with more conservation lands but the effects are relatively small no significant effect on employment growth is detected as well variables measuring changes in public timber harvests have no effect on employment growth

people places and earnings differentials in scotland abstractpeople places and earnings differentials in scotland regional studies this paper investigates the contribution of people and place effects to earnings differentials in scotland using individual and regional data the main sources of differentials are attributed to workers characteristics people effects particularly academic and vocational qualifications followed by occupational and industrial affiliations on the other hand differences in the attributes of local area labour markets place effects explain only a small part of individual earnings differentials the most relevant spatial attribute is local area human capital the findings suggest that people based policies are likely to be more effective at improving workers earnings prospects than place based policies

frictional labour mobility we build a dynamic model of migration where in addition to standard relocation costs workers face spatial frictions that decrease their ability to compete for distant job opportunities we estimate the model on a matched employer employee panel dataset describing labour market transitions within and between the 100 largest french cities our identification strategy is based on the premise that frictions affect the frequency of job transitions while mobility costs impact the distribution of accepted wages we find that 1 controlling for spatial frictions reduces mobility cost estimates by one order of magnitude 2 the urban wage premium is driven by better opportunities for local job to job transitions in larger cities 3 migration reduces lifetime inequalities by providing insurance against unsatisfactory initial location draws 4 labour mobility policies based on relocation subsidies are inefficient unlike switching from nationwide to local minimum wages

an extension of the tiebout hypothesis of voting with one s feet the medicaid magnet hypothesis this study empirically extends the tiebout hypothesis of voting with one s feet in two ways first it provides updated estimates using net migration data for the period 2000 2008 second in addition to investigating variables reflecting public education outlays property taxation and income taxation it investigates whether migrants are attracted to states with higher medicaid benefits per recipient the latter hypothesis is referred to as the medicaid magnet hypothesis the analysis includes three economic variables three quality of life variables and three tiebout type factors in addition to medicaid benefits results indicate that consumer voters were attracted to states with higher per pupil public school spending lower property and income tax rates and that certain consumer voters may be attracted to states that offer higher levels of medicaid benefits

the effect of welfare and wage levels on the location decisions of female headed households abstract this paper develops and estimates a model designed to calculate the impact of welfare benefit levels wages and tax rates on the location choices of female headed households the empirical model assumes that women simultaneously choose both where they will live and whether or not they will participate in the welfare system based on their expected income and expected hours of work for each location participation possibility these income and hours expectations depend in turn on the welfare benefits wage and tax rates facing each household in each location it is found that both regional welfare levels and wage rates have a significant effect on the location decisions of this population the probability of a typical female headed household with little outside income leaving an area with low welfare payments and low wages can be as much as 12 points higher over a 4 year period than the probability of leaving a high welfare high wage area

monetary policy rules work and discretion doesn t a tale of two eras this lecture examines monetary policy during the past three decades it documents two contrasting eras first a rules based era from 1985 to 2003 and second an ad hoc era from 2003 to the present during the rules based era monetary policy in broad terms followed a predictable systemic approach and economic performance was generally good during the ad hoc era monetary policy is best described as a discretion of authorities approach and economic performance was decidedly poor by considering alternative explanations of this policy performance correlation and examining corroborating evidence the paper concludes that rules based policies have clear advantages over discretion this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

monetary policy theory and practice in respect of the theory of monetary policy i am reminded of the comment that jacob viner made many years ago at a meeting of the american economic association about alfred marshall s economics what is new is highly unlikely at this late date also to be true and significant 1 consequently i shall restrict my remarks on theory to trying to summarize what i regard as the present intellectual position

a dynamic interregional theory of migration and population growth the authors attempt to bring the theory of regional amenity value determination together with a theoretical framework on migration to form a cohesive theoretical model they build on previous efforts to do this by introducing factors such as the housing market and determination of the equilibrium level of real full income the implied geographical focus is on the united states annotation

financial services global perspectives the purpose of this paper is to discuss the issues related to the deregulation of the financial services sector and the role of multilateral negotiations which has opened up opportunities for the expansion of international financial services the paper analyses various categories of international financial services and highlights those factors that contribute to an increase in the competitiveness of financial institutions in their attempt to increase the supply of international financial services the paper also analyses the complementary role of fdi and trade in international financial services and discusses some of the benefits of fdi in financial services that have led to a more efficient and more competitive financial services industry in the host countries

economic geography and wages abstract this paper estimates the agglomeration benefits that arise from vertical linkages between firms we identify the agglomeration benefits off the spatial variation in firms nominal wages u

the effects of housing prices wages and commuting time on joint residential and job location choices an empiricalmodelof joint decisions of where to l and where to work demonstrates that individuals make residential and job location choices by trading off wages housing prices and commuting costs wages are higher in metropolitan markets but housing prices are also higher in urban areas consumers can live in lower priced nonmetropolitan houses and still earn urban wages but they incur commuting costs that increase with distance from the city improvements in transportation that lower commuting time will increase nonmetropolitan populations and will increase the number of nonmetropolitan commuters to metropolitan markets equal wage growth across labor markets causes a shift in relative population from rural to urban markets while an equiproportional increase in housing prices causes a population shift toward rural areas

the great inflation and the greenbook abstract can the story of evolving federal reserve beliefs in the conquest of american inflation simultaneously explain the great inflation and the forecasts published in the greenbook during that time if sargent is correct then evolving beliefs should be reflected not only in policy outcomes but also in greenbook forecasts in this paper they are by conditioning on the greenbook it is show that both inflation outcomes and greenbook forecasts can be rationalised by evolving beliefs the results improve on recent empirical evidence that has been criticised for relying on unrealistic beliefs that produce forecasts inconsistent with the greenbook

shifts in us federal reserve goals and tactics for monetary policy a role for penitence during the fi rst period starting in the mid 1920s the federal reserve offi cial during the fi rst period starting in the mid 1920s the federal reserve offi cial policy was to support high quality bank lending but not speculative lending this policy was to support high quality bank lending but not speculative lending this goal was set aside once in 1927 in an episode that many observers then blamed for goal was set aside once in 1927 in an episode that many observers then blamed for the economic collapse that followed the fi nancial crash of 1929 the fed was then the economic collapse that followed the fi nancial crash of 1929 the fed was then reluctant to increase the funds available to banks through the early 1930s even as reluctant to increase the funds available to banks through the early 1930s even as the great depression ravaged the economy the fed s concern with the volume and the great depression ravaged the economy the fed s concern with the volume and quality of lending in the setting of monetary policy did eventually wither however quality of lending in the setting of monetary policy did eventually wither however this only seems to have happened after the publication of friedman and schwartz this only seems to have happened after the publication of friedman and schwartz 1963 a revisionist history of the great depression that blamed its depth on the 1963 a revisionist history of the great depression that blamed its depth on the fed s inappropriate focus on productive lending fed s inappropriate focus on productive lending in the second period after the experience of post world war ii infl ation the in the second period after the experience of post world war ii infl ation the federal reserve in the 1950s was highly concerned with infl ation and was willing to federal reserve in the 1950s was highly concerned with infl ation and was willing to raise interest rates and bring on recessions to nip even modest infl ation rates in the raise interest rates and bring on recessions to nip even modest infl ation rates in the bud this brought withering criticism for the federal reserve on the grounds that bud this brought withering criticism for the federal reserve on the grounds that the recessions of 1957 and 1960 had been unnecessary by the mid 1960s some fed the recessions of 1957 and 1960 had been unnecessary by the mid 1960s some fed offi cials seem to have developed an aversion to creating recessions as a method of offi cials seem to have developed an aversion to creating recessions as a method of

income taxes and the destination of movers to multistate msas abstract we examine how differences in state income tax rates as well as other state and local taxes and public service expenditures influence the choice of state of residence for households federal tax filers moving into multistate metropolitan areas msas using data from the irs on the migration of taxpayers msas that are on borders provide a spatial discontinuity discrete differences in state tax rates within a single labor market these msas allow residents to live in one state and work in another state we find that differences in state income tax rates have a significant impact on the relative rate of migration to the states within an msa however contrary to what would be expected this impact is only significant in msas in which the filing state is based on employment states without reciprocity and not for those states in which the filing state is the state of residence states with reciprocity in msas where states do not have reciprocity agreements a difference of ten percent in tax rates leads to a 4 1 percent difference in the relative rate of incoming taxpayers analogously we find that a ten percent difference in state tax rates in these msas results in a 3 3 percent difference in the rate of tax base inflow agi our results suggest that one reason that differences in state income taxes appear to have more impact in multistate msas without reciprocity is that only relatively large differences in state income tax rates have any impact on migration and these differences are much more pronounced in msas without reciprocity

parking transit and employment in a central business district abstract in this paper we present a general equilibrium model to examine the role of parking and transit subsidy policy on the size of a central business district cbd cbd land values and the market shares of cars and transit the three main features of the model are 1 agglomeration economies increase continuously with labor market size 2 congestion arises from auto use only transit is noncongestible and 3 locational equilibrium is maintained in the sense that firms and individuals cannot reduce costs or increase utility by moving given equilibrium prices and city size we derive the conditions under which parking taxes can be levied and used to subsidize transit and increase equilibrium cbd size and land values we compute an optimal parking tax that maximizes cbd size and land values and derive relationships among parking taxes transit use and congestion we find nonmonotonic relationships among parking taxes land values and transit use

bidding for firms recently toyota sought a plant location in the united states the 800 million plant will employ 3000 workers and numerous states offered toyota generous investment incentives hoping this would induce toyota to select their state the commonwealth of kentucky won this competition but the price was high the present value of the payments exceeds 125 million the payment of investment incentives for the toyota plant is not unique in 1976 pennsylvania paid 75 million to attract a volkswagen plan nissan honda and mazda received generous investment incentives when locating plants in the united states and this bidding is not limited to states to attract the headquarters of the presbyterian church usa with its 1300 jobs and 38 million annual payroll civic leaders in louisville kentucky offered the church a warehouse and 6 2 million for renovation of the structure bidding the church away from kansas city missouri in this paper we contend that this competition may result from the average cost pricing of publicly provided goods and services 2 when the marginal cost of providing a firm and its workers with public services is less than the tax revenue they generate a government may offer the firm subsidies that reduce the distortions the average cost pricing of the public service creates thus this competition for industry is not a zero sum game where the subsidies are only transfers from the government to the firm rather these subsidies may facilitate the efficient location of industry

demographic change intergenerational linkages and public education in this brief paper i explore several issues related to u s demographic change and the political economy of public education i describe the existing empirical evidence that suggests that older and childless voters are less likely to support public school spending than younger voters with children i then note several unresolved issues about the degree to which rational self interest should lead older voters to vote for low levels of public school spending excerpt

is there a compensating wage differential for high crime levels first evidence from europe abstract this paper investigates whether high regional crime levels lead to a compensating wage differential paid by firms in the respective region using data from german social security records official police statistics and official statistics for 2003 2006 i consider both violent and non violent crimes and use three way error components estimators to control for individual and regional heterogeneity the findings suggest that wages are practically unrelated to changes in crime rates this result is robust over a wide range of subgroups there is however some evidence that crime rates influence land prices

a brief empirical note on the tiebout hypothesis and state income tax policies some years ago tiebout 1956 418 hypothesized that the consumervoter may be viewed as picking that community which best satisfies his preference pattern for public goods the consumer voter moves to that community whose local government best satisfies his set of preferences based upon this argument by tiebout this brief note seeks to empirically examine the impact of state income tax policy upon the geographic mobility of consumer voters in the united states more specifically we attempt to determine whether the existence of a state income tax significantly influences the in migration of consumer voters naturally the analysis includes suitable non tax control variables to reflect other factors which may influence the migration decision calculus

the quest for prosperity without inflation abstract in recent years activist monetary policy rules responding to inflation and the level of economic activity have been advanced as a means of achieving effective output stabilization without inflation advocates of such policies suggest that their flexibility may yield substantial stabilization benefits while avoiding the excesses of overzealous discretionary fine tuning such as is thought to characterize the experience of the 1960s and 1970s in this study i present evidence suggesting that these conclusions are misguided using an estimated model i show that when informational limitations are properly accounted for activist policies would not have averted the great inflation but instead would have resulted in worse macroeconomic performance than the actual historical experience the problem can be attributed in large part to the counterproductive reliance of these policies on the output gap the analysis suggests that the dismal economic outcomes of the great inflation may have resulted from an unfortunate pursuit of activist policies in the face of bad measurement specifically overoptimistic assessments of the output gap associated with the productivity slowdown of the late 1960s and early 1970s

financial regulation and financial system architecture in central europe abstract at the beginning of the transition advice to central european countries with respect to how to set up their financial systems was based on models used in western economies this paper analyzes the experiences to set up a financial system in central europe the experience in the first transition years 1990 1996 with financial system architecture shows that changes are slow but that the central european countries tend to catch up more quickly with the western ones in the case of their banking systems than with respect to their stock markets

credit markets credibility and economic transformation this paper focuses on the special role that capital markets play in the transformation of centrally planned economies into well functioning market economies we demonstrate that underdeveloped credit markets inhibit the effectiveness of price reform monetary and credit policies and trade liberalization we explore various ways to overcome the difficulties associated with the underdeveloped credit markets in this regard we examine the implications of cleaning the balance sheets of enterprises and banks from nonperforming loans as well as ways to enhance credibility the paper concludes with a brief discussion of sequencing of economic reform measures

housing and location choices of retiring households evidence from france in this paper a study is made of the mobility and housing choices of the elderly when retiring using household data collected in france from a theoretical viewpoint individuals are likely to decrease their housing quantity because of an income loss when retiring but they may also increase it to benefit from more housing comfort for leisure using the 1992 trois generations survey it is first shown that housing mobility at retirement is substantial in france with a variety of self reported motives then using the 1994 2001 french europanel survey evidence is found of both upsizing and downsizing for mobile recent retirees in many cases housing adjustments lead to a correction of the initial disequilibrium between the number of rooms and the number of occupants however a significant proportion of mobile recent retirees improve the quality of their dwelling

the adjustment of expectations to a change in regime a study of the founding of the federal reserve the founding of the federal reserve system in 1914 led to a substantial change in the behavior of nominal interest rates the authors examine the timing of this change and the speed with which it was effected they then use data on the term structure of interest rates to determine how expectations responded their results indicate that the change in policy regime was rapid and that individuals quickly understood the new environment they were facing copyright 1987 by american economic association

new estimates of climate demand evidence from location choice abstract we develop and apply to census data a new method for estimating climate demand the method is useful for ranking quality of life based upon a willingness to pay criterion our two major findings are that the willingness to pay quality of life index is correlated with the hedonic approach s ranking but that the migration approach generates much larger estimates of willingness to pay for a more moderate climate this finding is relevant for evaluating the economic impact of global warming

on consequences and criticisms of monetary targeting the purpose of this paper is to review and evaluate the most important existing criticisms of policy strategies that feature adherence to money stock targets four main categories of criticism and counterargumerits are analyzed the first of these involves the claim that accurate money stock control is infeasible while the second contends that such control can only be obtained along with extreme volatility of interest rates the third emphasizes difficulties resulting from technical change and deregulation and the fourth concerns strategic issues of rules vs discretion activist vs non activist policy and the logical function of intermediate targets this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

wages rents and the quality of life this study focuses on the role of wages and rents in allocating workers to locations with various quantities of amenities the theory demonstrates that if the amenity is also productive then the sign of the wage gradient is unclear while the rent gradient is positive the theory is extended to include the housing market and nontraded goods these extensions require little modification of the conclusion the empirical work on wages shows that the regional wage differences can be explained largely by these local attributes with the use of site price data implicit prices are estimated and quality of life rankings for the cities are computed

stagflationary effects of stabilization programs in reforming socialist countries enterprise side and household side factors dismantling subsidies could give rise to serious macroeconomic difficulties in the short run this article explores a view based on the enterprise sector as a central source and main channel of the stagflation phenomenon using as an example the stagflation that followed the 1990 stabilization program in poland the stagflation phenomenon is linked to features of the financial market that are somewhat peculiar to reforming socialist economies the weak credit links between households and enterprises and the existence of large interenterprise debt the policy implications of the enterprise side view include more explicit consideration of initial conditions in the credit market implementation of privatization schemes and the development of a domestic banking

federal reserve system implementation of monetary policy analytical foundations of the new approach on october 6 1979 the federal reserve announced a change in its open market operating procedures that moved the focus of short run guides for open market operations away from the federal funds rate and toward reserve aggregates under the old procedures the trading desk maintained close week to week control over the federal funds rate within a range specified by the federal open market committee fomc alteration of the funds rate between fomc meetings was subject to guidelines conditional on behavior of the money supply relative to specified tolerance ranges under the new procedures the trading desk targets on a family of reserve aggregates principally nonborrowed and total reserves the reserve operating guides under the new procedures are derived from targets for growth of the monetary aggregates and are expressed as averages of weekly levels over the short run operating period normally the intermeeting period as a corollary less attention is paid to the federal funds rate and it is permitted to vary over a much wider range during the short run operating period as compared with the old procedures it should be understood that the october shift to a reserve operating guide for openmarket operations did not also encompass a change in either the proximate or ultimate objectives of monetary policy they continued to be respectively the money supply and goals for economic growth employment and prices rather the shift involved a change in the technique of achieving the proximate money supply objectives two reasons can be advanced for the shift first the old technique of operating on the federal funds rate seemed to be a less reliable means in practice of attaining the proximate policy objectives second in view of the worsening inflationary psychology at the time a shift to a different technique of operations would help to dramatize the federal reserve s continuing commitment to slowing money growth to curb inflation and thereby would work to reduce inflationary psychology this paper first summarizes the analytical framework underlying the choice between a reserve aggregate and a federal funds rate operating target as well as some previous research bearing on the issue next the technical aspects of implementing the new procedures are explained and contrasted to the theoretical paradigm underlying previous empirical results finally experience with the new procedures since last october is reviewed and some conclusions are drawn

deep recessions fast recoveries and financial crises evidence from the american record do steep recoveries follow deep recessions does it matter if a credit crunch or banking panic accompanies the recession moreover does it matter if the recession is associated with a housing bust we look at the american historical experience in an attempt to answer these questions the answers depend on the definition of a financial crisis and on how much of the recovery is considered but in general recessions associated with financial crises are generally followed by rapid recoveries we find three exceptions to this pattern the recovery from the great contraction in the 1930s the recovery after the recession of the early 1990s and the present recovery the present recovery is strikingly more tepid than the 1990s one factor we consider that may explain some of the slowness of this recovery is the moribund nature of residential investment a variable that is usually a key predictor of recessions and recoveries

do inter city differences in intra city wage differentials have any interesting implications abstract recent research has related characteristics of cities to differences in the distribution of wages across workers with different skill levels we demonstrate that these differences in wage differentials arise naturally as a compensating variation in rosen s theoretical model of inter city wages for example if the income elasticity of demand for housing services is less than unity cities with higher house prices will have smaller money wage differentials between low and high skill workers this result has no implications for differences in either absolute or relative real productivity or welfare of unskilled workers similarly changes in the amenity of an urban area may result in changes in relative wages of skilled and unskilled workers with no implications for real productivity or welfare differentials empirical tests in which housing cost differentials are added as a determinant of inter city differences in an intra urban wage differential model provide empirical confirmation of the theoretical expectations it appears that intra urban money wage differentials differences in the quality of life and variation in the cost of living in each city are jointly determined variables just as rosen s model of inter city wage differentials predicts

u s state and local fiscal policy and economic activity do we know more now early reviews of the academic literature on the economic effects of state and local taxes and expenditures suggested that not enough was known upon which to base policy the reviews called for better data and improvements in empirical methodology this paper reviews studies conducted since the early literature reviews to assess our current state of knowledge the conclusion of the study is that we know more now but our knowledge is unlikely to ever be sufficient to provide universal policy guidance rather we suggest that more research is needed on specific state and local policies for specific circumstances consistent with the general principles that guide place based policy

a reexamination of the federal private wage differential in the united states the federal private wage differential is reexamined with recent data using specifications similar to those used in three previous studies i find that the federal private wage differential has narrowed since the 1974 79 period analyzed in those studies in addition i discover that wage differentials based on specifications used in the literature are biased upward because the previous studies did not control for detailed occupational and locational characteristics of workers corrected point estimates of the wage gap are much smaller than previous estimates in the literature differences in the gap across demographic groups occupations and locations are also discussed

monetary policy as financial stability regulation this paper develops a model that speaks to the goals and methods of financialstability policies there are three main points first from a normative perspective the model defines the fundamental market failure to be addressed namely that unregulated private money creation can lead to an externality in which intermediaries issue too much short term debt and leave the system excessively vulnerable to costly financial crises second it shows how in a simple economy where commercial banks are the only lenders conventional monetary policy tools such as open market operations can be used to regulate this externality while in more advanced economies it may be helpful to supplement monetary policy with other measures third from a positive perspective the model provides an account of how monetary policy can influence bank lending and real activity even in a world where prices adjust frictionlessly and there are other transactions media besides bank created money that are outside the control of the central bank

congress and the federal reserve we examine legislative activity targeting the federal reserve to determine when congress takes an interest in the fed and whether this interest has an effect on monetary policy using a keyword search of the thomas catalogue for the period from january 1973 through december 2010 we identify 1575 bills in the house and 728 bills in the senate pertaining to the federal reserve we classify these bills into several categories including those that expand fed powers and those that threaten or usurp fed powers using the romer and romer 2004 series of monetary policy shocks we find that prior to the early 1980s the fed responded to bills credibly threatening fed powers by lowering the federal funds target below that prescribed by current and forecast economic conditions however this accommodation ceased following the end of the non borrowed reserves targeting period in october 1982 analyzing the determinants of bill sponsorship we find that high unemployment high inflation and high long term real borrowing costs failures of the fed along the three dimensions of its mandate all lead to a greater number of bills seeking to alter the fed s powers importantly we also find that the relative importance of these three dimensions has changed over time under chairmen burns and miller congress took greater interest when unemployment was high under chairman greenspan congress took greater interest when inflation was high we believe that these findings are consistent with the view that the lessons of the great inflation changed the public perception of the fed s macroeconomic responsibilities which in turn better aligned congressional views on policy with those of the fed and allowed the fed to better resist remaining congressional pressure to its independence

the determinants and welfare implications of us workers diverging location choices by skill 1980 2000 abstract from 1980 to 2000 the rise in the us college high school graduate wage gap coincided with increased geographic sorting as college graduates concentrated in high wage high rent cities this paper estimates a structural spatial equilibrium model to determine causes and welfare consequences of this increased skill sorting while local labor demand changes fundamentally caused the increased skill sorting it was further fueled by endogenous increases in amenities within higher skill cities changes in cities wages rents and endogenous amenities increased inequality between high school and college graduates by more than suggested by the increase in the college wage gap alone jel d31 i26 j24 j31 j61 r23

honey i shrunk the kids benefits revisiting intergenerational conflict in oecd countries intergenerational conflict may arise when the interests of different age groups do not align we examine cross country data to find evidence for this conflict in oecd countries we derive our results from a fgls estimation model which is complemented by a system gmm estimation to account for potential endogeneity the data are from a panel of 22 oecd countries over the time period 1985 2005 we find little support for intergenerational conflict in general however those who are close to statutory retirement age dislike public expenditure on families and education because once they retire they will have less income compared to their work income this effect is transitory however implying a change in voting behavior during retirement age

crime and economic incentives we explore the role that economic incentives particularly changes in wages at the bottom end of the wage distribution play in determining crime rates we use data on the police force areas of england and wales between 1975 and 1996 and find relative falls in the wages of low wage workers lead to increases in crime we carry out a number of experiments with different wage measures including a wage measure that accounts for the effects of changes in the composition of employment these reinforce the picture of a strong association between the low wage labor market and crime the result that incentives play a central role is reinforced further by the strong impact on crime of deterrence measures and of a measure of the returns to crime

urban effects on participation and wages are there gender differences abstract this paper estimates participation and wage equations using panel data from the united kingdom to explore gender differences in urban wage and participation premiums the results suggest a small but economically significant urban participation premium for women but none for men results from the wage estimations suggest that after controlling for sample selectivity observed and unobserved heterogeneity the urban premium is larger for women this wage premium is also larger for married or cohabiting women relative to others there is also evidence of higher urban returns to experience for men and lower urban wage depreciation for both men and women

eastern europe s experience with banking reform is there a role for banks in the transition are there lessons to be learned about how eastern european countries have dealt with problems in their banking systems what role have these countries assigned to banks during the transition how have they used banks in dealing with the enterprise problem the author addresses these questions by analyzing experience in bulgaria hungary poland romania and the former czech and slovak federal republic most of these countries have made substantial progress in restructuring their banking systems but few have used their banking systems to improve the allocation of credit and hence stimulate the supply response the author finds the following the problem is not whether banks hold nonperforming loans but how banks can avoid accumulating more nonperforming loans the underlying problem is how to close loss making and nonviable enterprises the countries that have encouraged the establishment of new private banks that have introduced regulation and supervision and that have tried to make banks more competitive have been more successful at improving the allocation of credit and achieving more control over loss making enterprises banks must focus on assessing risk and for this capital private ownership and adequate regulation are crucial how quickly banks achieve independence in credit decisions depends on how fast new governance structures can be introduced in this the five countries have been less successful the objectives of bank recapitulation should be to prevent banks from accumulating more nonperforming loans that is dealing with the enterprise problem and to give them the governance structure that would prevent them from incurring new nonperforming loans this requires introducing a system of risk and reward by making banks comply with capital adequacy requirements by privatizing a critical number of banks and by introducing strong regulation and supervision government should see that banks provide efficient payment systems the basis for trust in banking systems introducing adequate regulation and supervision has been difficult as it requires knowing what the banks role should be evidence strongly supports the need to recapitalize and privatize a critical number of banks authorities cannot rely on banks to exert control on enterprises early in the transition in the early stages control over state owned enterprises should be exercised by a semipublic institution

deregulation ownership and productivity growth in the banking industry evidence from india this paper analyzes the relationship between deregulation and total factor productivity tfp growth in the indian banking industry using a generalized shadow cost function approach tfp growth is decomposed into a technological change a scale and a miscellaneous component a disaggregated panel data analysis using the population of public and private banks over 1985 96 that covers both pre and post deregulation periods indicates that a significant decline in regulatory distortions and the anticipated increase in tfp growth have not yet materialized following deregulation while private sector banks have improved their performance mainly due to the freedom to expand output public sector banks have not responded well to the deregulation measures

land use worker heterogeneity and welfare benefits of public goods we show that investments in public goods change the optimal land use in their vicinity leading to additional welfare benefits this occurs through two sorting mechanisms first availability of public goods leads to higher population densities second population groups sort according to their preferences for public goods we develop a structural spatial general equilibrium model that accounts for these effects the model is estimated using data on transport infrastructure commuting behaviour land use and land rents for some 3000 zip codes in the netherlands and for three levels of education welfare benefits of investments in public transport infrastructure are shown to differ sharply by workers educational attainment welfare gains from changes in land use account for up to 30 of the total benefits of a transport investment

does school district and municipality border congruence matter research on zoning typically assumes that city planners aim to maximise housing prices with their land use decisions either explicitly for public choice reasons or implicitly through the approval of land uses that create local net benefits noncongruence of school district and municipality borders severs the link between costs and benefits in the eyes of the median voter however which could result in excessive residential development and fiscal externalities that lower property values this paper uses a hedonic approach to indirectly observe the presence of these externalities border congruency between school districts and municipalities in ohio is measured using gis data and matched with a data set of 56 717 home sales the hedonic results indicate that noncongruence is associated with lower housing prices while the degree of noncongruence is positively related for most school districts the negative effect of noncongruency dominates my results are robust and consistent across different model spec

welfare policies and migration of the poor in the united states an empirical note this paper has investigated the impact of geographic welfare benefit differentials upon migration in the united states unlike other related studies which typically focus upon black migration as a surrogate measure of migration of the poor the present study focuses directly upon migration of the poor per se a variety of reduced form estimates are provided the evidence strongly suggests that the net in migration of the poor is positively and significantly influenced by higher nominal afdc levels and by higher real afdc levels these findings support the welfare magnet hypothesis which alleges that relatively high welfare levels act to attract poor migrants moreover given that poor migrants are attracted non only by high nominal welfare levels but also by high real welfare levels an argument can be made for establishing geographically uniform real welfare benefit levels in the united states this uniformity presumably should act over the long run to eliminate the human resource distortions being caused by the currently prevailing welfare system

why inflation rose and fell policy makers beliefs and u s postwar stabilization policy this paper provides an explanation for the run up of u s inflation in the 1960s and 1970s and the sharp disinflation in the early 1980s which standard macroeconomic models have difficulties in addressing i present a model in which rational policymakers learn about the behavior of the economy in real time and set stabilization policy optimally conditional on their current beliefs the steady state associated with the self confirming equilibrium of the model is characterized by low inflation however prolonged episodes of high inflation ending with rapid disinflations can occur when policymakers underestimate both the natural rate of unemployment and the persistence of inflation in the phillips curve i estimate the model using likelihood methods the estimation results show that the model accounts remarkably well for the evolution of policymakers beliefs stabilization policy and the postwar behavior of inflation and unemployment in the united states

monetary factors in the great depression this paper examines the role of monetary policy in the early stages of the great depression and considers the mechanism whereby this policy may have affected real activity i conclude that the depression was preceded by a dramatic shift towards a highly contractionary monetary policy the economic impact of this policy seems unlikely to have come through the conventional keynesian channels of a shortage of liquidity and high ex ante real interest rates but instead may have operated through unanticipated deflation and after 1930 through the disruption of financial intermediation as a consequence of the banking panics

going home evacuation migration decisions of hurricane katrina survivors in the wake of hurricane katrina many evacuees from the gulf region began the difficult process of deciding whether to rebuild or restart elsewhere we examine pre katrina gulf residents decision to return to the postdisaster gulf region which we call the return migration decision we estimate two separate return migration models first using data from a mail survey of individuals in the affected region and then focusing on self administered questionnaires of evacuees in houston our results indicate that return migration can be affected by household income age education level and employment marital and home ownership status but the results depend on the population under consideration we find no effect of connection to place on the return migration decision although the effect of income is relatively small within subsamples we find a much higher proportion of middle income households planning to return than lower income households when comparing across the subsamples in addition the real wage differential between home and host region influences the likelihood of return larger implicit costs in terms of foregone wages for returning induce a lower likelihood of return exploiting this difference at the individual level we are able to produce estimates of willingness to pay wtp to return home average wtp to return home for a sample of relatively poor households is estimated at 1 94 per hour or 3954 per year

riding the wave of urban growth in the countryside spread backwash or stagnation the advisability of an urban centered growth strategy to reap the benefits of urban agglomeration economies is much debated rural areas benefit when the growth spreads to the hinterlands especially within daily commuting distance yet in distant peripheral locations urban growth may create a backwash as households relocate to the urban center this study examines spread vs backwash as separate from long run distance from urban center trend effects using a novel canadian gis database the unique nation wide approach yields a spread and backwash rural growth topography that varies by distance from the urban center by urban population vs income growth and by size of rural community

do the elderly vote with their feet this research explores whether the elderly vote with their feet by migrating to states with government policies that treat them favorably a theoretical model is presented that clarifies the effects of cost of living amenities and the public sector on migration decisions and that informs our empirical analysis using state level migration data from the 1990 census we estimate out migration and in migration equations that suggest that the public sector is an important determinant of elderly migration but in sometimes unexpected ways our results lend some support for the tiebout hypothesis but they also raise serious questions about the nature of the elderly s preferences for government policy

local amenities and life cycle migration do people move for jobs or fun abstract do households move for jobs or fun and where do they go when they move we address these questions using the 1970 2000 us census based on a panel of quality of life and business environment measures households prefer msas in warm coastal areas and non metropolitan locations while firms prefer large growing cities in addition cities with improving business environments acquire increasing shares of workers especially workers with high levels of human capital cities with improving consumer amenities become relatively more populated by retirees further analysis of individual level migration decisions indicates that regardless of marital status young highly educated households tend to move towards places with higher quality business environments this tendency is especially pronounced among highly educated couples who are more subject to job market co location problems in contrast regardless of education couples near retirement tend to move away from places with favorable business environments and towards places with highly valued consumer amenities these patterns help explain why areas unattractive to both households and business have struggled as with upstate new york while the sun belt and other regions are thriving