product innovation and firm growth evidence from the integrated circuit industry applied research on growth and innovation seems to suggest that successful innovations do not significantly enhance firm growth this paper tests the hypothesis that the level of observation at which applied research is typically conducted hampers identification of a significant association between innovation and sales growth rates exploiting a unique data set we find that product innovations commercialized in the immediate past positively affect the corporate revenue streams of semiconductor companies

the turnover of teachers a competing risks explanation in this paper we analyze the decision by teachers to leave the profession in a dependent competing risks framework the econometric model allows for a flexible semiparametric specification of the duration dependence structure and of the unobserved heterogeneity distribution in each exit specific hazard function our results obtained for a large sample of uk teachers affirm the importance of teacher salaries and opportunity wages in the turnover decision of teachers and illustrate the insight gained from differentiating between multiple destinations or exit types

income dynamics in tamil nadu india from 1971 to 2003 changing roles of land and human capital this article examines the changing role of physical and human capital in income dynamics in tamil nadu india using detailed daily records of farming households from 1971 to 2003 we find that income growth until the early 1990s is attributed to the rice green revolution and the associated development of nonrice farm sector further growth after the 1990s became possible due to the rapid nonfarm sector development that has been stimulated by the liberalization of indian economy since 1991 in accordance with this change in income structure the importance of physical and human capital has changed human capital was important in the early 1970s to take advantage of the rice green revolution technology once the new technology became standard among farmers human capital became an insignificant factor the importance of human capital has revived in a different manner in recent years firstly because it has increased farmers access to nonfarm job opportunities and secondly because farm management has become more knowledge intensive in the face of increasing scarcity of labor and water the contribution of physical capital increased during the green revolution period while it started declining after that the changing mechanism is characterized as the shifting importance from physical to human capital in accordance with the changing engines of income growth from the green revolution to the development of nonfarm sector

foreign direct investment heterogeneous workers and employment security evidence from germany we analyze how foreign direct investment fdi affects employment security using administrative microdata for german employees measuring fdi intensity at the industry level enables us to take into account the sum of direct effects at multinationals as well as indirect effects of fdi throughout the affected industry we find that both inward and outward fdi significantly reduce employment security this is particularly the case for inward fdi coming from the western part of the european union as well as for outward fdi going to central and eastern europe the effects are sizeable for older and low skilled workers

china s uneven progress against poverty while the incidence of extreme poverty in china fell dramatically over 1980 2001 progress was uneven over time and across provinces rural areas accounted for the bulk of the gains to the poor though migration to urban areas helped the pattern of growth mattered rural economic growth was far more important to national poverty reduction than urban economic growth agriculture played a far more important role than the secondary or tertiary sources of gross domestic product gdp rising inequality within the rural sector greatly slowed poverty reduction provinces starting with relatively high inequality saw slower progress against poverty due both to lower growth and a lower growth elasticity of poverty reduction taxation of farmers and inflation hurt the poor external trade had little short term impact

opportunity wages classroom characteristics and teacher mobility this article analyzes the impact of classroom characteristics and opportunity wages on four possible labor market choices of teachers in florida remaining at their present school switching schools within a school district changing school districts and leaving teaching discrete time multinomial logit hazard model estimates indicate that classroom characteristics play a larger role than school average student characteristics in determining teacher mobility opportunity wages based on past teacher movements to other competing districts and professions are found to pull teachers away from their initial placements once opportunity wages and working conditions are considered teachers own salaries are found to exert little impact on teacher mobility within the profession although they reduce attrition out of the profession policy simulations indicate that targeted salary increases based on teacher specific working conditions are important to retain teachers at a given school

would higher salaries keep teachers in high poverty schools evidence from a policy intervention in north carolina abstract for a three year time period beginning in 2001 north carolina awarded an annual bonus of 1800 to certified math science and special education teachers working in public secondary schools with either high poverty rates or low test scores using longitudinal data on teachers we estimate hazard models that identify the impact of this differential pay by comparing turnover patterns before and after the program s implementation across eligible and ineligible categories of teachers and across eligible and barely ineligible schools results suggest that this bonus payment was sufficient to reduce mean turnover rates of the targeted teachers by 17 experienced teachers exhibited the strongest response to the program finally the effect of the program may have been at least partly undermined by the state s failure to fully educate teachers regarding the eligibility criteria our estimates most likely underpredict the potential outcome of a program of permanent salary differentials operating under complete information

a policy agenda for pro poor agricultural growth abstract sub saharan africa and parts of south asia are likely to hold large numbers of very poor rural people into the foreseeable future although both history and theory suggest a pre eminent role for agricultural growth in poverty reduction in poor agrarian economies such growth today faces new difficulties many of these difficulties are endogenous to today s poor rural areas others result from broader processes of global change but some are due to changes in the dominant policy environment emphasizing liberalization and state withdrawal examination of 20th century green revolutions suggests that active state interventions were important in supporting critical stages of agricultural market development unfortunately such interventions benefits in institutional development are easily overlooked whereas their high costs are much more visible policy implications are discussed

leaving teaching in the uk a duration analysis in this paper the authors analyze the decision by teachers to leave the profession their results affirm the importance of relative earnings in the tenure and turnover decisions of teachers the econometric modeling approach used yields important insights into the appropriateness of adopting a flexible semiparametric specification of the duration dependence structure and of the unobserved heterogeneity distribution in duration models copyright 1995 by royal economic society

new ways of looking at old issues inequality and growth abstract the paper uses new cross country data on income and asset land distribution to show that i there is a strong negative relationship between initial inequality in the asset distribution and long term growth ii inequality reduces income growth for the poor but not for the rich and iii available longitudinal data provide little support for the kuznets hypothesis policies that increase aggregate investment and facilitate acquisition of assets by the poor might thus be doubly beneficial for growth and poverty reduction

did higher inequality impede growth in rural china this paper estimates the relationship between initial village inequality and subsequent household income growth for a large sample of households in rural china using a rich longitudinal survey spanning the years 1987 2002 and controlling for an array of household and village characteristics the paper finds that households located in higher inequality villages experienced significantly lower income growth through the 1990s however local inequality s predictive power and effects are significantly diminished by the end of the sample the paper exploits several advantages of the household level data to explore hypotheses that shed light on the channels by which inequality affects growth biases due to aggregation and heterogeneity of returns to own resources previously suggested as candidate explanations for the relationship are both ruled out instead the evidence points to unobserved village institutions at the time of economic reforms that were associated with household access to higher income activities as the source of the link between inequality and growth the empirical analysis addresses a number of pertinent econometric issues including measurement error and attrition but underscores others that are likely to be intractable for all investigations of the inequality growth relationship

growth divergence due to spatial externalities abstract on using household level panel data to unpack a regional growth regression for rural china we find that aggregate divergence at the regional level is entirely due to external effects of community wealth at the household level

length of stay for low cost tourism abstract awareness of tourists length of stay and the factors which determine that is an essential element for good planning and management at tourist destinations this article analyses to what extent the personal characteristics of the low cost tourist those of the trip and stay and those of the destination itself are significant in determining the duration of a trip to this end an econometric duration model is estimated the results obtained show that the effect of time restrictions seem to be relevant for explaining the observed differences in length of stay as well as the effects of the tourist s spending capacity prices and the differences between urban and sun and sand destinations furthermore the model also allows us to analyse changes in the likelihood of the stay being ended at a specific point in time hazard associated with changes in the explanatory variables and to obtain predicted survival times for different groups of tourists

teacher quality in public and private schools under a voucher system the case of chile chile is unusual in having long term experience with nationwide school vouchers a key criticism of school voucher systems is that they make it easier for private schools to attract better teachers to the detriment of public schools this paper uses longitudinal data from chile to estimate a discrete choice dynamic programming dcdp model of teacher and nonteacher labor supply decisions and to explore how wage policies affect the composition of the teacher labor force in public and private schools in the model individuals first decide whether to get a teaching degree and then choose annually from among five work home sector alternatives empirical results show that private voucher schools attract better teachers than public schools however the existence of the private voucher sector also draws higher productivity individuals into the teaching profession

teacher sorting teacher quality and student composition abstract using panel data for norwegian schools we establish a two equation supply and demand model for teachers with approved education taking into account nationally determined teacher pay and a strict teacher appointment rule the data enable us to separately estimate supply and demand functions for certified teachers the results clearly indicate that the student body composition and in particular students belonging to ethnic minorities influences both teacher supply and teacher demand the implied negative relationship between excess demand for certified teachers and the share of minority students is likely to be important for teacher quality

morphology of growth the effects of country size structural characteristics and linkages abstract this paper investigates the extent to which tests concerning the influence of various kinds of structural imbalance indexes on the overall rate of economic growth may be sensitive to 1 differences in the extent to which various country characteristics are reflected in the normal growth path and hence in the imbalance indexes 2 differences in the level of disaggregation or part of the economy at which imbalance is measured and 3 the type of countries to which the analysis is applied the results based on imbalance indexes and growth rates for a sample of 42 countries 1960 1970 and 1970 1978 are shown to be sensitive to all three of these considerations

female labour supply and household employment shocks maternity leave as an insurance mechanism this paper investigates the role of unpaid maternity leave in providing household insurance against paternal employment shocks the main outcome is the timing of a mothers return to work after having a child exploiting the us family and medical leave act we find that mothers eligible for maternity leave speed up their return to work in response to a paternal shock with the conditional probability of being in work 49 higher than in households with no unpaid maternity leave further evidence is provided on the insurance role of unpaid maternity leave through i no significant interaction between paid maternity leave and the paternal shock and ii smoothing of consumption effects of the shock for households covered by unpaid leave

growth inequality and poverty looking beyond averages the evidence is compelling that the poor in developing countries do typically share in the gains from rising aggregate affluence and in the losses from aggregate contraction but how much do poor people share in growth do they gain more in some settings than others do some gain while others lose does pro poor growth mean more or less aggregate growth recent theories and evidence suggest some answers but deeper microeconomic empirical work is needed on growth and distributed change only then will we have a firm basis for identifying the specific policies and programs needed to complement and possibly modify growth oriented policies

does aggregation hide the harmful effects of inequality on growth abstract aggregation can severely bias conventional tests of whether inequality impedes growth a micro growth model estimated on farm household data for rural china indicates that asset inequality in the area of residence has a harmful external effect on consumption growth the effect is lost in a regional growth regression

structural change and economic development in southern italy this article uses input output information to measure the detail of the industrial structure of the italian south and the linkages between different industrial sectors the basic hypothesis is that regional economic development will be associated with the variety of backward and forward linkages existing in a regional economy this hypothesis is tested using linkage measures based on the concept of entropy applied to data from a multiregional input output system for italy for five years between 1959 and 1975 the results show that levels of gross regional product and gross regional product per capita were higher in regions and years with diverse backward linkage measures

flexible parametric estimation of duration and competing risk models in this paper we specify and estimate a flexible parametric proportional hazards model the model specification is flexibly parametric in the sense that the baseline hazard is non parametric while the effect of the covariates takes a particular functional form we also add parametric heterogeneity to the underlying hazard model specification we specify a flexible parametric proportional competing risks model which permits unrestricted correlation among the risks unemployment duration data are then analysed using the flexible parametric duration and competing risks specifications we find an important effect arising from the exhaustion of unemployment insurance and significantly different hazards for the two types of risks new jobs and recalls

school characteristics and teacher turnover assessing the role of preferences and opportunities job characteristics can affect worker turnover through their effect on utility and through their effect on outside job opportunities the aim of this study is to identify and estimate the roles of these two channels separately our method exploits information on job changes and relies on an augmented sample selection correction to illustrate our approach we use an exhaustive register of dutch primary school teachers and show a detailed picture of preferences for school characteristics we also find that the dependence between current and outside job attributes can affect turnover and thus the allocation of teachers across schools

time is money costing the impact of duration misperception in market prices abstract we explore whether and to what extent traders in a real world financial market where participants judgements are reportedly well calibrated are subject to duration misperception to achieve this we examine duration misperception in the horserace betting market we develop a two stage algorithm to predict horses winning probabilities that account for a duration related factor that is known to affect horses winning prospects the algorithm adapts survival analysis and combines it with the conditional logit model using a dataset of 4736 horseraces and the lifetime career statistics of the 53 295 horses running in these races we demonstrate that prices fail to discount fully information related to duration since a horse s last win we show that this failure is extremely costly since a betting strategy based on the predictions arising from the model shows substantial profits 932 5 percent and 16 27 percent with and without reinvestment of winnings respectively we discuss the important implications of duration neglect in the wider economy

zeros and lumps in investment empirical evidence on irreversibilities and nonconvexities the objective of this paper is to investigate if and how capital adjustment departs from the smooth pattern implied by standard model based on convex adjustment costs using norwegian micro data we start by documenting the intermittent and lumpy nature of investment rates we then present two pieces of econometric evidence on these issues first we estimate a discrete hazard model to determine the probability of having an episode of high investment conditional on the length of the interval from the last high investment episode second we estimate a switching regression model that allows for the response of the investment rate to fundamentals to differ across regimes in both cases we investigate the aggregate implications of our results

the impact of changes in human fertility on poverty household survey data for developing and transitional economies are used to estimate the effect of fertility crude birth rate net of infant deaths on private consumption poverty cross national regressions indicate that higher fertility increases poverty both by retarding economic growth and by skewing distribution against the poor our median country in 1980 had dollar a day poverty incidence of 18 9 per cent had it reduced its fertility by four per 1 000 throughout the 1980s the sample median fall it is estimated that incidence would have been reduced to 13 9 per cent the growth and distribution effects being roughly equally responsible for this reduction

fixed capital in linkage based planning models the argument of this paper is that linkage indexes must be treated dynamically in order to be useful to investment planning the static straitjacket afforded by input output tables means that linkage indexes need to be supplemented by other sources of information this paper makes four comments on the dynamic interpretation of linkages in the first section it is shown that considered statically sectoral interdependence and growth are inversely related in the second section it is argued that linkage based planning need not necessarily conflict with the principle of comparative advantage in the third section the correct use of imports in the construction of ex ante linkage indexes is defined in the fourth section we show how linkage indexes derived from the output approach can be extended to incorporate fixed capital finally some calculated indexes for south korea are presented and briefly discussed

machine replacement and the business cycle lumps and bumps this paper explores investment fluctuations due to discrete changes in a plant s capital stock the resulting aggregate investment dynamics are surprisingly rich reflecting the interaction between a replacement cycle the cross sectional distribution of the age of the capital stock and an aggregate shock using plant level data lumpy investment is procyclical and more likely for older capital further the predicted path of aggregate investment that neglects vintage effects tracks actual aggregate investment reasonably well however ignoring fluctuations in the cross sectional distribution of investment vintages can yield predictable nontrivial errors in forecasting changes in aggregate investment

teacher pay and school productivity exploiting wage regulation abstract the impact of teacher pay on school productivity is a central concern for governments worldwide yet evidence is mixed in this paper we exploit a feature of teacher labour markets to determine the impact of teacher wages teacher wages are commonly set in a manner that results in flat wages across heterogeneous labour markets this creates an exogenous gap between the outside labour market and inside regulated wage for teachers we use the centralised wage regulation of teachers in england to examine the effect of pay on school performance we use data on over 3000 schools containing around 200 000 teachers who educate around half a million children per year we find that teachers respond to pay a ten percent shock to the wage gap between local labour market and teacher wages results in an average loss of around 2 in average school performance in the key exams taken at the end of compulsory schooling in england

the economic determinants of young people s household formation the paper derives predictions about the impact of the price of housing young adults income and parental income on the probability that a young adult in the united kingdom lives apart from his her parents it shows that the predicted effect of the price of housing is intimately related to the price elasticity of housing demand it uses longitudinal data on a cohort of britons born in 1958 surveyed in the national child development study to estimate dynamic models of first departure from the parental home and particularly to estimate the impact of housing price on the timing and destination of first departure excerpt

a dynamic model of teacher labor supply the labor supply decisions of certified elementary and high school teachers are examined using data from a general longitudinal survey a significant decrease in the teaching participation rate tak

teacher mobility and merit pay evidence from a voluntary public award program abstract this paper analyzes the effect on teacher mobility of a program that rewards excellence in teaching practices in chile successful applicants receive a 6 annual wage increase for up to 10 years and an award that publicly recognizes their excellence the paper uses a regression discontinuity design to identify the causal effect of the public merit award the program does not alter transitions out of teaching however it increases the mobility of awardees within the school system this is consistent with the program providing a credible public signal of teacher quality

does it pay to pay teachers more evidence from texas abstract this study presents robust evidence on the relationship between teacher pay and turnover using detailed panel data from texas while controlling for changes in district and local labor market characteristics i estimate an overall turnover elasticity of 1 4 and show that the effect is largest for inexperienced teachers declines with experience and disappears around 19 years of experience combining these results with what we know about the relationship between teacher value added and experience i show that paying teachers more improves student achievement through higher retention rates the results also suggest that adopting a flat salary schedule may be a cheap way to improve student performance i find no evidence that pay effects vary by the teacher s gender or subject taught

the dynamics of teacher quality abstract an extensive literature finds that while teachers vary considerably in initial quality there are limited teacher quality dynamics except for the first few years of teaching teacher quality does not improve over the course of a teacher s career this study evaluates the importance of various modeling restrictions to the key findings of this literature using data covering all 5th grade public school teachers from the state of north carolina i replicate the findings of the previous literature using their restrictive experience assumptions however using an unrestricted experience model i find that for mathematics achievement there are high returns to later career teaching experience about twice as much dispersion in initial teacher quality as previously estimated and a pattern of negative selection where high quality teachers are more likely to exit

the effect of educational attainment on welfare dependence evidence from canada abstract the impact of educational attainment on the duration of welfare spells is analysed using a unique data set derived from the administration of the social assistance program in canada over the period 1986 1993 the empirical analysis includes controls for demographic characteristics program parameters labour market conditions and unobserved individual characteristics it is found that that educational attainment has a much greater impact on the welfare exit rate for women than for men additionally the welfare exit rate for women is more sensitive to family status and program benefits but less sensitive to the unemployment rate relative to that for men

recruiting and retaining teachers in the uk an analysis of graduate occupation choice from the 1960s to the 1990s this paper examines the market for teachers in the uk from 1960 to 2002 using six graduate cohort data sets we find that while there is no strong evidence that teachers are underpaid the relative wages in teaching compared with alternative professions have a significant impact on the likelihood of graduates choosing to teach this wage effect is strongest at times of low relative teachers wages or following a period of decline in those wages it is also strongest for those individuals who have more recently graduated and for men

distributive politics and economic growth a crude distinction between economics and politics would be that economics is concerned with expanding the pie while politics is about distributing it in this paper we analyze the relationship between the two we focus on how an economy s initial configuration of resources shapes the political struggle for income and wealth distribution and how that in turn affects long run growth our main conclusion is that inequality is conducive to the adoption of growth retarding policies we derive this result from a simple political economy model of growth and present cross country evidence consistent with it the key feature of our model is that individuals differ in their relative factor endowments we distinguish between two types of factors an accumulated factor called capital and a nonaccumulated factor called labor growth is driven by the expansion of the capital stock which is in turn determined by individual saving decisions long run growth is endogenous as the aggregate production function is taken to be linearly homogeneous in capital and productive government services taken together the provision of government services is financed by a tax on capital because government services are productive a small tax on

compensation policies and teacher decisions a dynamic discrete choice framework with a flexible structure for unobserved heterogeneity is used to model the occupational decisions of individuals who are certified to teach in elementary and secondary schools the model is estimated using data from the national longitudinal study of the high school class of 1972 and is used to examine the effects of possible changes in the compensation policy for teachers

why don t we see poverty convergence average living standards are converging among developing countries and faster growing economies see more progress against poverty yet we do not find poverty convergence countries starting with higher poverty rates do not see higher proportionate rates of poverty reduction the paper tries to explain why analysis of a new dataset suggests that at given mean consumption high initial poverty has an adverse effect on consumption growth and also makes growth less poverty reducing thus for many poor countries the growth advantage of starting out with a low mean is lost due to a high incidence of poverty jel d63 i31 i32 o15

consolidation by merger the uk beer market this paper examines the determinants of market structure in the uk brewing industry over 1949 1969 sutton sunk costs and market structure price competition advertising and the evolution of concentration 1991 points to technology and advertising races as two key drivers of market concentration this study uses an own built longitudinal data set of the population of firms and breweries and reveals the importance of institutional factors in explaining the dynamics of market structure the practice of tying outlets to brewers and legal restrictions on opening retail outlets together with a permissive policy towards mergers made acquisition of medium sized firms and brewery closure shortly after acquisition the main driving mechanism towards industry consolidation during this period the number of firms and plants fell sharply by 74 and 60 respectively and production rose by about 25 with no firm entry and just one new brewery opening as a result concentration increased and the market transformed from a highly fragmented one into a stable oligopoly

can high inequality developing countries escape absolute poverty do the poor face the same prospects for escaping poverty in high inequality developing countries as in low inequality countries is it possible for inequality to be so great as to stifle prospects of reducing absolute poverty even when other initial conditions and policies are favorable to growth household survey data for developing countries suggest that initial distribution does affect how much the poor share in rising average incomes higher initial inequality tends to reduce growth s impact on absolute poverty by the same token higher inequality diminishes the adverse impact on the poor of general economic contraction combining this evidence with that from recent investigations of inequality s effect on growth the author finds that if inequality is high enough countries that would have very good growth prospects at low levels of inequality may see little or no overall growth and little progress in reducing poverty or even a worsening on both counts the data the author uses suggest that such cases do occur the precision with which key parameters have been estimated makes it difficult to say with confidence how common such cases are but they appear to be in the minority what appear to be the best available estimates suggest that about one fifth of the spells between surveys he analyzed were cases in which poverty was rising yet positive growth in the mean and hence falling poverty is predicted at zero inequality inequality can be high enough to result in rising poverty despite good underlying growth prospects

offshoring the nature of tasks and occupational stability empirical evidence for germany using a large administrative data set of individual employment histories for germany this paper studies the relationship between offshoring and the individual risk of leaving the occupation moreover a rich data set on tasks performed in occupations is used to better characterise the sources of worker vulnerability both material and service offshoring are on average not associated with an increase in occupational outflow rates however this association depends on the nature of tasks performed in the occupation higher intensities of interactive and in particular non routine tasks are associated with a larger decrease or a smaller increase in the occupational hazard rate