capital mobility and foreign debt sustainabilty some evidence from turkey this paper address the extent of capital mobility and foreign debt sustainability in turkey over the 1962 2003 period by examining the relationship between saving and investment and imports and exports respectively the empirical investment is based on cointegration error correction models and threshold and momentum threshold autoregressive models our findings are consistent with the existence of capital mobility and the strong form of foreign debt sustainability

aggregate demand for electricity in south africa an analysis using the bounds testing approach to cointegration abstract electricity demand in south africa has grown at a very rapid rate over the past decade as part of reform initiatives to enhance long term sustainability of the country s electricity industry south africa s authorities have in recent years sought to develop an electricity pricing framework that is cost reflective and forms the cornerstone of demand management schemes meant to foster changes in consumption behaviour and enhance efficiency in resource use the effects of any pricing policy on aggregate electricity consumption will depend on a useful understanding of the factors that influence electricity demand and the magnitude to which electricity demand responds to changes in such factors in this context this paper applies the bounds testing approach to cointegration within an autoregressive distributed lag framework to examine the aggregate demand for electricity in south africa during the period 1960 2007 the results indicate that in the long run income is the main determinant of electricity demand with electricity prices having an insignificant effect on aggregate electricity demand future pricing policies will need to ensure that electricity prices are cost reflective and enhance efficiency of electricity supply and use

stacking up the ladder a panel data analysis of tanzanian household energy choices energy use statistics in tanzania reflect the country s low level of industrialization and development in 2016 only 16 9 of rural and 65 3 of urban inhabitants in mainland tanzania were connected to some form of electricity we use a nationally representative three wave panel dataset 2008 2013 to contribute to the literature on household energy use decisions in tanzania in the context of the stacking and energy ladder hypotheses we firstly adopt a panel multinomial logit approach to model the determinants of household cooking and lighting fuel choices secondly we focus explicitly on energy stacking behaviour proposing various ways of measuring what is inferred when stacking behaviour is thought of in the context of the energy transition and presenting household level correlates of energy stacking behaviour thirdly since fuel uses have gender differentiated impacts we investigate women s bargaining power in the decision making process of household fuel choices we find that whilst higher household incomes are strongly associated with a transition towards the adoption of more modern fuels especially lighting fuels this transition takes place in a context of significant fuel stacking in tanzania government policy has been aimed mostly at connecting households to the electric grid however the public health environmental and social benefits of access to modern energy sources are likely to be diminished in a context of significant fuel stacking lastly we present evidence that the educational attainment of women in the household is an important aspect of household fuel choices

improving rural electricity system planning an agent based model for stakeholder engagement and decision making abstract energy planners in regions with low rates of electrification face complex and high risk challenges in selecting appropriate generating technologies and grid centralization to better inform such processes we present an agent based model abm that facilitates engagement with stakeholders this approach evaluates long term plans using the cost of delivered electricity resource mix jobs and economic stimulus created within communities and decentralized generation mix of the system with results provided in a spatially resolved format this approach complements existing electricity planning methods e g integrated resource planning by offering novel evaluation criteria based on typical stakeholder preferences we demonstrate the utility of this approach with a case study based on a blank slate scenario which begins without generation or transmission infrastructure for the long term rural renewable energy plans of liberia west africa we consider five electrification strategies prioritizing larger populations deploying large resources creating jobs providing economic stimulus and step wise cost minimization through the case study we demonstrate how this approach can be used to engage stakeholders supplement more established energy planning tools and illustrate the effects of stakeholder decisions and preferences on the performance of the system

gis and rural electricity planning in uganda abstract sustainable development is literally fuelled by the energy sector in uganda the electricity sector has experienced dramatic market liberation in recent years this reform was centred around the unbundling of the main government utility uganda electricity board ueb a monopoly divided into three companies created to introduce competition into the market market reform has also led to the creation of a regulatory body and a rural electrification fund with the aim of subsidising rural electricity investments through a multi sectoral programme financed by the world bank and the global environment facility gef the ministry of energy is developing a rural electrification master plan to provide a more systematic tool for rural electricity investments unlike previous approaches this plan is demand driven this paper discusses the use of geographic information systems gis in the planning process for rural electrification the aim is to identify patterns of demand and priority areas for investment by creating a demand side scenario electricity can then be supplied to targeted areas a cross sectoral view is taken to examine the energy demand patterns using physical data and available country statistics incorporated into a gis master database based on geo referenced data of population and existing infrastructure the initial priority demand side sectors targeted are education and health an energy benefit point system is then applied to each sector based on local conditions and needs assessments their aggregated points then provide an indicator of energy demand distribution for electricity planning at district level as a result of this preliminary work specific areas could then be targeted for investment and optimised supply systems could be designed which include off grid renewable energy plants such as small scale hydropower schemes

satisfying the rural residential demand in liberia with decentralized renewable energy schemes abstract with the lowest access to electricity in the world the country of liberia west africa has efforts underway for electrification through a fossil based centralized scheme around its capital city and possible connections to the larger western africa power pool network these plans leave a large part of the rural population with no access to electricity this work analyzes the potential of decentralized generation to provide electricity to the rural liberian population the suppressed demand of the rural population is calculated at 235 gwh yr there is sufficient renewable energy potential to supply this demand the capital costs and electricity prices of decentralized generation with different fuels are calculated and compared to the ability and willingness to pay of rural liberians small diesel units have the lowest capital cost but photovoltaic small hydropower and small biomass projects provide lower electricity prices biomass and small hydro electricity are affordable for liberians at 0 08 kwh and 0 11 kwh respectively diesel and photovoltaic with levelized cost of electricity of 0 62 kwh and 0 33 kwh respectively exceed liberians willingness to pay centralized and decentralized electricity developments are not mutually exclusive both may be used within a comprehensive electrification plan decentralized generation with emphasis on rural areas can complement the existing plans to achieve the government of liberia s goal of universal access to electricity providing social equity and economic progress in order to become a reality rural decentralized electrification will need policy support and focused funding

the risk of second tier supplier failures in serial supply chains implications for order policies and distributor autonomy abstract as organizations decrease inventory the potential impact of a supply disruption increases however due to supply chain structural changes the likelihood of a disruption may be less additionally independent supply chain actors may react to policy changes changing supply chain configurations and perhaps reducing loss magnitudes if risk is a product of likelihood and magnitude does higher inventory reduce an organization s supply related risk this paper examines the supply risk issue within the context of a second tier supply failure and is grounded in inventory and resource dependency theories by evaluating risk assessment in a simulation environment exploratory findings suggest that increased inventory in a tiered supply chain can sometimes increase supply risk rather than decrease it managerial insights into the effects of supply chain stability and coordination are provided by taking a systems perspective of supply risk management organizations will be better able to manage supply risk concerns

what do saving investment relationships tell us about capital mobility abstract this paper re examines the tests of international capital mobility based on saving investment regressions originated by feldstein while analyses of various measures of capital controls provide some support for the feldstein hypothesis it is shown that the existence of nontraded goods can independently lead to a saving investment correlation this theoretical critique is supported empirically an analysis of the stability of the coefficients resolves the oft reported puzzle in the literature that economies appear to have become increasingly closed financially over time

electricity planning and implementation in sub saharan africa a systematic review abstract universal electricity access is an important development objective and the focus of a number of key global un initiatives while robust electricity planning is widely believed to be a prerequisite for effective electrification to date no comprehensive overview of electricity planning research has been undertaken on sub saharan africa the world region with the lowest access rates this paper reviews quantitative and qualitative electricity planning and related implementation research considering each of the 49 sub saharan african countries the four regional power pools and the sub continent as a whole applying a broad understanding of electricity planning and a practical limit of 20 reviewed articles per country and region 306 relevant peer reviewed journal articles are included in this review a general classification scheme is introduced that classifies the planning literature along the addressed value chain depth number of different analysed criteria and number of evaluated decision alternatives the literature is found to be strongly clustered in a few countries with less than 5 identified relevant articles in 36 of the 49 countries the total amount of articles per year is clearly increasing over time addressing technology choice operation distribution and implementation analyses although including different high level criteria in analysing electricity systems is common the literature is only starting to use formalised multi criteria decision making mcdm tools the review indicates that 63 of relevant articles favour renewable energy technologies for their given problems frequently mentioned success factors for electrification in sub saharan africa include adequate policy design sufficient finance and favourable political conditions while considerable regional and methodological literature gaps are apparent the literature in this review identifies a rich and fruitful ground for future research to fill these gaps

modelling aggregate domestic electricity demand in ghana an autoregressive distributed lag bounds cointegration approach in spite of the varying supply boosting efforts made by various governments to deal with the existing demand supply gap in the electricity sector the incessant growth in aggregate domestic electricity demand has made these efforts futile as an objective this paper attempts to identify the factors responsible for the historical growth trends in aggregate domestic electricity demand quantifying their effects both in the short run and long run periods using the ardl bounds cointegration approach and the sample period 1975 to 2005 in the long run real per capita gdp industry efficiency structural changes in the economy and degree of urbanisation are identified as the main driving force behind the historical growth trend in aggregate domestic electricity demand however in the short run real per capita gdp industry efficiency and degree of urbanisation are the main drivers of aggregate domestic electricity demand industry efficiency is the only factor that drives aggregate domestic electricity demand downwards however the negative efficiency effect is insufficient to have outweighed the positive income output and demographic effects hence the continual growth in aggregate domestic electricity demand as a policy option we recommend that appropriate electricity efficiency standards be implemented at the industry level

determining the optimal size of supply base with the consideration of risks of supply disruptions abstract determining the optimal size of the supply base has haunted managers for years a small supply base gives rise to the risk of supply disruption whereas a large supply base increases the fixed cost in this paper we consider the risks of supply disruption due to occurrence of super semi super and unique events in order to formulate a model to determine the optimal size of supply base we depict the model in a decision tree like structure and forward a tabular method of solution that obviates the need avoids evaluation of a majority of non optimal solutions and thus overcomes the problem of dimensionality

an overview of afghanistan s trends toward renewable and sustainable energies relentless environmental concerns steep hike in fossil fuel price and increasing demand of non renewable fossil fuels consumption have dramatically increased global search for alternative energies the world requests ever growing energy supplies to sustain economic development and improvement renewable and sustainable energy ever more becoming accepted and established a decisive place in energy system of the word due to ecologicallyresponsiveinsight and a decrease in equipment expenses consistent with its endowment of energy resources each country tried to figure out its own energy portfolio and employing technologies which are economically viable and socially equitable and have minimal adverse impacts this article attempts to review all possible renewable energy sources as a substitute of the current energy profile coal natural gas and petroleum in afghanistan the study found afghanistan power sector as one of the least development sector which its inadequate status is preventing the development of the country as well eventhough the energy is not the only panacea but cost effective energies in abundant quantity and quality on sustainable foundation will help to reach to demand socio economic development the results indicate that afghanistan due to its natural and geographical situations enjoys important prospective for renewable energy bases such as solar wind geothermal and micro hydro power renewable energies could offer the ultimate solution for afghanistan in general and rural areas in actual but switch to altered forms of energy is grounded in multifaceted interations the study indicates number of issues such as great upfront charges absence of providers insufficient funding appliances and feebleindorsed and methodologicalcapability overwhelm and affected the use of renewable energies and technologies in afghanistan however with sufficient investment and practical stages by government andnongovernment agencies and the public encourage these unbound sources could play a vital role not only in afghanistan s energy supply but also in poverty reduction social and political stability and improving living standard

are saving and investment cointegrated another look at the data abstract in his paper are saving and investment co integrated economics letters 27 pp 31 34 miller finds that u s saving and investment rates were cointegrated during the post wwii fixed exchange rate regime and not cointegrated during the flexible exchange rate regime miller did not take into account the fact that both of these rates have non zero means once this is taken into account i find that his results no longer hold i also find that the levels of saving and investment are not cointegrated during either the fixed or flexible exchange rate regimes these findings cast doubt on whether or not this technique can shed light on international capital mobility

savings and investment some international perspectives consistent with neoclassical growth models recent estimates of the close association between domestic saving and investment rates may allow policy makers the opportunity to alter investment through the introduction of polices that alter domestic savings however such an interpretation presumes an endogenous investment response equally likely at least theoretically is that the close association is maintained by movements in domestic savings the present paper explicitly examines the endogeneity of domestic saving and investment rates for a subset of countries including the united states the results suggest that saving adjustments make up only a small portion of investment behavior

tariffs and subsidies in zimbabwe s reforming electricity industry steering a utility through turbulent times abstract in 1991 the government of zimbabwe adopted a public enterprise reform strategy as part of a world bank driven economic structural adjustment programme esap for the electricity sector the government adopted a two pronged programme of reform a performance improvement programme pip for the national utility the zimbabwe electricity supply authority zesa and a legal and regulatory reform programme for the electricity sector in general ten years later significant success has been achieved in improving the utility s performance in technical operations and customer service however there has been very little progress on the legal and regulatory front this has adversely affected the utility s financial performance as well as frustrating the government s efforts in attracting private sector investment the centrality of the tariff question reflects the importance of the customer or end user to the power sector reform process this article outlines the power sector reform experiences in zimbabwe with special focus on the tariff question the paper suggests from the perspective of a utility executive reasons for the mixed results at zesa and lessons for other countries in the region undertaking similar reforms

elasticities of electricity demand in urban indian households abstract in the past several electricity demand studies have been published for india based on aggregate macro data at the country or sub national state level since the underlying theory of consumer demand is based on the behaviour of individual agents the use of micro data which reflects individual and household behaviour more closely can shed greater light on the nature of consumer responses in this paper seasonal price and income elasticities of electricity demand in the residential sector of all urban areas of india are estimated for the first time using disaggregate level survey data for about 30 000 households three electricity demand functions have been econometrically estimated using monthly data for the winter monsoon and summer season in order to understand the extent to which factors like income prices household size and other household specific characteristics influence variations observed in individual households electricity demand the results show electricity demand is income and price inelastic in all three seasons and that household demographic and geographical variables are significant in determining electricity demand

the feldstein horioka puzzle revisited a monte carlo study abstract this study revisits the feldstein horioka fh puzzle by employing a variety of asymptotically efficient cointegration estimators and by using the critical values obtained from monte carlo simulations to test the hypothesis of a unit retention coefficient this leads to a lower rejection of the null than standard critical values would have implied despite ample evidence supporting the fh result there appears to be considerable heterogeneity in terms of the savings investment association and only 25 of the 23 oecd countries we examine can be characterised as open economies in the fh sense whether or not one subscribes to the fh interpretation the fh result does not appear to be robust

value of information in capacitated supply chains we incorporate information flow between a supplier and a retailer in a two echelon model that captures the capacitated setting of a typical supply chain we consider three situations 1 a traditional model where there is no information to the supplier prior to a demand to him except for past data 2 the supplier knows the s s policy used by the retailer as well as the end item demand distribution and 3 the supplier has full information about the state of the retailer order up to policies continue to be optimal for models with information flow for the finite horizon the infinite horizon discounted and the infinite horizon average cost cases study of these three models enables us to understand the relationships between capacity inventory and information at the supplier level as well as how they are affected by the retailer s s s values and end item demand distribution we estimate the savings at the supplier due to information flow and study when information is most beneficial

sustainable energy planning leapfrogging the energy poverty gap in africa abstract the present paper introduces the results of a spatial economic analysis that identifies the least cost rural electrification options that can bring the persistent energy poverty to an end in sub saharan africa the rationale behind the analysis is that the applicable energy technologies have gone through fundamental changes and these have profound effects on the competitiveness of the various options the least cost distributed generation options are calculated for each geographical location for mini hydro off grid pv and diesel generators options and it is compared to the electricity grid extension the methodology presented in this manuscript organises the scarcely available energy related local and regional geo information into comprehensible maps the set of tools presented and the results based on those analyses can support decision and policy makers to plan for the least cost rural electrification options while also adapting to the most effective way to reduce energy poverty this can help in the national rural electrification plans by delineating which communities cannot be reached by existing grid without excessive extension costs and gives the alternative distributed generation option

information distortion in a supply chain the bullwhip effect this article originally appeared in management science april 1997 volume 43 number 4 pp 546 558 published by the institute of management sciences consider a series of companies in a supply chain each of whom orders from its immediate upstream member in this setting inbound orders from a downstream member serve as a valuable informational input to upstream production and inventory decisions this paper claims that the information transferred in the form of orders tends to be distorted and can misguide upstream members in their inventory and production decisions in particular the variance of orders may be larger than that of sales and distortion tends to increase as one moves upstream a phenomenon termed bullwhip effect this paper analyzes four sources of the bullwhip effect demand signal processing rationing game order batching and price variations actions that can be taken to mitigate the detrimental impact of this distortion are also discussed

capital mobility in the world economy an alternative test abstract this paper proposes a new measure and test of international capital mobility in order to investigate capital flows we utilize a small open economy version of campbell and mankiw s nber macroeconomic annual 1989 185 216 permanent income model our capital mobility measure focuses on the correlation between the country s consumption and net output instead of the correlation between domestic saving and domestic investment proposed by feldstein and horioka economic journal 90 1980 314 329 the model is estimated for 11 oecd countries the results suggest that the null hypothesis of perfect capital mobility cannot be rejected for more than a half of these countries on the other hand some kind of capital mobility constraints are detected for several countries including the united states and japan

estimation of elasticities for domestic energy demand in mozambique abstract in mozambique households consume a mix of energy sources to satisfy their needs for lighting and cooking and for wealthier households other domestic necessities such as refrigeration the domestic energy mix depends on the prices of the sources and on the capability of the household to invest in the energy consuming appliances required to satisfy those needs based on data from a household survey carried out in mozambique during 2002 3 iaf this paper calculates the price and the income elasticities of demand for domestic energy using an econometric method developed by deaton the calculations are made for all households at the national level differentiating for urban and rural households and for the northern households of mozambique in the econometric formulation proxies for the ownership of energy appliances per household are used allowing a simple evaluation of the effects of asset ownership on the demand for energy own and cross price elasticities for five individual domestic sources are obtained low grade sources such as firewood and charcoal are less elastic elasticities of 0 41 and 0 28 respectively than candles kerosene and electricity respectively 0 88 0 79 and 0 60 income elasticities are respectively 0 45 0 32 0 93 0 84 and 0 69 placing firewood and charcoal as the less responsive to income variations and candles and kerosene as the most responsive we also comment on the factors influencing domestic energy transition

household level effects of electricity on income abstract this paper studies the effect of electricity on income using the nepal living standards survey iii nlssiii carried out in the years 2010 11 to account for endogeneity issues we use a two stage probit least squares 2spls model we find that causality runs both ways that is income explains whether a household is connected to electricity but also a household being connected to electricity has a very large and significant effect on income

analysis of an inventory system under supply uncertainty in this paper we analyze a periodic review single item inventory model under supply uncertainty the objective is to minimize expected holding and backorder costs over a finite planning horizon under the supply constraints the uncertainty in supply is modeled using a three point probability mass function the supply is either completely available partially available or the supply is unavailable machine breakdowns shortages in the capacity of the supplier strikes etc are possible causes of uncertainty in supply we demonstrate various properties of the expected cost function and show the optimality of order up to type policies using a stochastic dynamic programming formulation under the assumption of a bernoulli type supply process in which the supply is either completely available or unavailable and when the demand is deterministic and dynamic we provide a newsboy like formula which explicitly characterizes the optimal order up to levels an algorithm is given that computes the optimal inventory levels over the planning horizon extensions and computational analysis are presented for the case where the partial supply availability has positive probability of occurrence

domestic saving and international capital movements in the long run and the short run the evidence and analysis in this paper support the earlier findings of feldstein and horioka 1980 that sustained increases in domestic savings rates induce approximately equal increases in domestic rates of investment new estimates for the post opec period 1974 79 imply that each extra dollar of domestic saving increases domestic investment by approximately 85 cents in a sample of 17 oecd countries an explicit analysis of the problems of identification and simultaneous equations bias suggests that the regression estimates are more relevant as a guide to the long run response of international capital flows than to their short run behavior coefficient estimates based on annual variations in savings and investment are subject to potentially severe simultaneous equations bias that is not present when annual observations are averaged over a decade or more and the regression is estimated with a cross country sample of these averages a portfolio model of international capital allocation that is presented in the paper indicates that the short run change in the rate of net foreign investment in response to a sustained increase in domestic saving is likely to be substantially greater than the ultimate steady state response this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

estimating saving investment correlations evidence for oecd countries based on an error correction model abstract saving investment correlations are important stylized facts in open economy macroeconomics and indicators of capital mobility they are best estimated by an error correction model ecm because an ecm is consistent with intertemporal general equilibrium models the ecm is a synthesis of previous approaches applying the ecm to the oecd countries we find that in general saving and investment are cointegrated the ecm is more powerful in detecting cointegration than the two step engle granger procedure estimates of the saving investment correlation are robust with respect to overdifferencing we find evidence of a large country effect and an increase in capital mobility within the oecd area

addressing the renewable energy financing gap in africa to promote universal energy access integrated renewable energy financing in malawi abstract the sustainable energy for all initiative is a global initiative launched by the united nations secretary general in 2012 with a goal of providing universal access to modern energy services by 2030 to achieve this goal substantial financial and technological investments will be required at a rate far exceeding historical levels sub saharan africa has a 30 5 electrification rate and policy reform issues to improve electrification have been poorly implemented thereby sprinkling doubt as to whether the region would be able to achieve 100 access to electricity for all by the year 2030 sub saharan africa faces a tough challenge in order to achieve universal access to modern energy services since the region fails to attract energy sector investments there is also a general perception that the region contributes very little to global greenhouse gas emissions hence offers few opportunities to reduce these emissions consequently missing out on attracting climate finance projects a guarantee of power purchase has been shown to attract energy sector investments however guarantees of power purchases such as feed in tariffs are experiencing slow market growth in developing countries because of a range of technical regulatory and financial barriers using malawi as a case study of a developing country this review provides a perspective from a sub saharan africa least developed country as to the various electrification renewable energy deployment and climate change management challenges that still require urgent attention this study shows that despite the perceived regulatory and financial challenges malawi can integrate and use a combination of adapted price guarantee schemes cross subsidies and environmental taxes in order to support initiatives aimed at supporting the country s development of renewable energy sources and hence indirectly support the sustainable energy for all initiative

are saving and investment cointegrated an ardl bounds testing approach using the newly developed ardl bounds testing procedure we find that as implied by the intertemporal budget constraint u s saving and investment rates cointegrate in all sample periods considered our results also show that the saving investment correlation weakens after 1971 suggesting that the feldstein horioka approach provides an at least partially informative measure of capital mobility

exploring the link between products and services in low income markets evidence from solar home systems one of the key challenges of energy access in emerging markets and developing countries is how to reach households and communities that are unlikely to get a grid connection in the long term or those that are connected to the grid but suffer from regular blackouts or low voltage by surveying entrepreneurs selling solar home systems shss on a commercial basis in emerging and developing countries this study is one of the first attempts to quantify the key elements of four potential product service systems psss cash credit leasing and fee for service whereas the fee for service approach was found to be suitable only under certain conditions all psss share two key elements for successful market deployment one or more years of maintenance and customer support in financing these customers new asset moreover it appears that private sector companies are in principle able to deliver shss to households with incomes greater than usd 1000 per year the implications for policy makers and development aid agencies are first to include maintenance services into public programmes or public private partnerships and second to explicitly consider financial risks for entrepreneurs e g customer commitment and repayment conditions

rural household energy consumption the effects of access to electricity evidence from south africa this paper examines household energy consumption patterns in rural areas in the light of energy transition theories in particular the study aims to identify the effects of access to electricity on fuel choice the analysis uses data from an extensive household survey conducted in south africa and examines the prevalence of different fuels energy expenditure the end uses of fuels and multiple fuel use patterns it is concluded that evidence exists for the presence of an energy transition in rural households largely driven by income access to electricity affects the nature of this transition and there is weak evidence to suggest that it accelerates the process

meeting electrification s social objectives in south africa and implications for developing countries electrification programmes and projects are usually planned and evaluated on the basis of their economic financial and socio economic performance it is not usually recognised that electrification is often carried out for social objectives of poverty alleviation and political effect examination of electrification in south africa reveals clearly that initial electrification was to meet economic objectives later socio economic objectives were adopted and recently the objectives were social social electrification particularly rural electrification is not viable according to usual assessment methods which are frequently distorted to provide the justification for a project to proceed the technology of network electrification changed to meet the constraints challenging usual perceptions about the relative costs of urban and rural electrification and the potential for photovoltaic electrification adopting a specification for social electrification allows suitable tariffs for electrification to be identified indicates how capital investment decisions might be modified for social electrification and identifies implications for electricity industry restructuring a better understanding of electrification s social objectives has implications for projects and programmes in other developing countries

potential for solar water heating in zimbabwe this paper discusses the economic social and environmental benefits from using solar water heating swh in zimbabwe by comparing different water heating technology usage in three sectors over a 25 year period the potential of swh is demonstrated in alleviating energy and economic problems that energy importing countries like zimbabwe are facing swh would reduce coincident electricity winter peak demand by 13 and reduce final energy demand by 27 assuming a 50 penetration rate of swh potential demand up to 250 million can be saved and co2 emissions can be reduced by 29 over the 25 year period benefits are also present at individual consumer level for the electricity utility as well as for society at large in the case of zimbabwe policy strategies that can support renewable energy technologies are already in current government policy but this political will need to be translated into enhanced practical activities a multi stakeholder approach appears to be the best approach to promoting widespread dissemination of swh technologies

retailer policy uncertainty reduction and supply chain performance abstract we investigate how the retailer s inventory policy affects the total cost of a serial supply chain when the retailer uses the locally optimal s s policy there is randomness in order time and order quantity to the supplier whereas the supplier sees randomness only in order quantity for the suboptimal r t policy and only in order time for another suboptimal q r policy using an extensive computational study we find that the suboptimal policies perform better from the total supply chain perspective the benefit of policy changes is magnified when the retailer costs are low when the supplier costs are high and when there is information sharing

towards achieving energy for sustainable development in nigeria the importance of energy availability in the economic growth social and political development of every nation cannot be overemphasized affordable and reliable energy availability is the precondition for sustainable development sustainable development calls for an efficient reliable and decentralized energy economy based on local and clean energy sources in which the price paid by the consumer will reflect the real cost of energy products to the economy there is clear evidence that nigeria is blessed with abundant resources of fossil fuels as well as renewable energy resources the major challenge is inefficient utilization of energy in the country there is no doubt that the present power crisis afflicting nigeria will persist unless the government diversifies her energy sources and adopt new available technologies to reduce energy wastages and save cost this study examines the perspective of energy efficiency and renewable energy in the making of strategies for a sustainable development in nigeria such strategies involve energy savings on the demand side efficiency improvements in the energy production and replacement of fossil fuels by various sources of renewable energy factors that need to be considered in the shift to its sustainable energy future are examined in this article

domestic technology consumption economies of scale and poverty evidence from sri lanka while it is well known that new technologies enhance consumer welfare the manner in which these technologies impact the ability to realize economies of scale in consumption is not well understood we use sri lankan household data to examine how the adoption of new technologies by households positively impacts their ability to achieve household economies of scale this suggests that new technologies not only deliver a greater variety of consumption goods to consumers but they may also play an important role in enabling large households to escape poverty by lowering the per capita costs of maintaining a given standard of living given the importance of consumption economies of scale in the measurement of poverty this study provides some insights on the extent to which the number of poor households changes when food consumption scale economies due to technology adoption in the domestic sphere are incorporated

a functional coefficient model view of the feldstein horioka puzzle what does the saving investment si relation really measure and how should the si relation be measured these are two of the most discussed issues triggered by the so called feldstein horioka puzzle based on panel data we introduce a new variant of functional coefficient models that allows to separate long and short to medium run parameter dependence the new modeling framework is applied to uncover the determinants of the si relation macroeconomic state variables such as openness the age dependency ratio government current and consumption expenditures are found to affect the si relation significantly in the long run

are saving and investment co integrated abstract the observation of a strong positive correlation between national saving and domestic investment rates calls into question the assumption of highly mobile international capital i re examine the question of a high correlation by considering the time series relationship between national saving and domestic investment rates in the u s using newly developed co integration techniques national saving and domestic investment appear to be co integrated prior to 1971 but appear not to be co integrated after 1971

connecting political economies of energy in south africa abstract the south african energy debate is and will remain a heated one given south africa s history of racial inequality and contemporary concerns around sustainability much of it rightly focuses on the links between energy poverty and the environment yet many contributions to the mainstream debate seem to have a somewhat one sided focus that might hamper rather than stimulate the understanding of these links they either display a strong technical quantitative bias and or lean towards rather simplistic ideas about policy processes and dynamics the article argues that many of these analyses could benefit greatly from a critical focus on the political economy of energy the political economic power structures that influence both many energy policies and the issues of energy equality and sustainability two major global developments emphasise the importance of this focus the recent financial crisis and south africa s role in the increasingly tense geopolitics of energy in africa the article concludes with some suggestions on how currently disparate political economies of energy could be better connected

residential electricity demand in taiwan this paper examines the residential demand for electricity in taiwan as a function of household disposable income population growth the price of electricity and the degree of urbanization short and long term effects are separated through the use of an error correction model in the long run the income elasticity is unit elastic the own price effect is negative and inelastic in an error correction framework the short run income and price effects are small and less than the long run effects cooling degree day effects have a positive impact on short run consumption we have used a proxy variable urbanization to capture economic development characteristics and changes in electricity using capital stocks not explained by income the variable provides significant explanatory power to the model both in the short and long run we interpret it as controlling for economic development factors not captured by the pure income effect and we think it holds promise for explaining residential electricity consumption in other developing countries

determinants of electricity demand for newly electrified low income african households access to clean affordable and appropriate energy is an important enabler of development energy allows households to meet their most basic subsistence needs it is a central feature of all the millennium development goals mdgs and while a lack of access to energy may not be a cause of poverty addressing the energy needs of the impoverished lets them access services which in turn address the causes of poverty while much is known about the factors affecting the decisions made when choosing between fuel types within a household few quantitative studies have been carried out in south africa to determine the extent to which these factors affect energy choice decisions it is assumed that the factors traditionally included in economic demand such as price and income of the household affect choice tastes and preferences as well as external factors such as distance to fuel suppliers are expected to influence preferences this study follows two typical low income rural sites in south africa antioch and garagapola where the electricity basic services support tariff ebsst was piloted in 2002 the ebsst is set at 50 kwh month per household for low domestic consumers this is worth approximately r20 1 7us 3 this subsidy is a lifeline tariff where households receive the set amount of units per month free of charge irrespective of whether more units are purchased these data collected in 2001 and 2002 recently collated with detailed electricity consumption data allow us to determine the drivers of electricity consumption within these households the sample analysed is taken from the initial phase of the study when no fbe had been introduced to the households this enabled the study presented here to make use of the well populated datasets to assess what affects the electricity use decision in these households this paper attempts to assess which factors affected the decision making process for electricity consumption within these households a brief history of the electricity industry and the electrification is provided and the theoretical background for the electricity consumption model is provided it was found that income woodfuel usage iron ownership and credit obtained were significant in determining consumption levels within these households price and cross price elasticities were difficult to assess due to lack of data within the sample the results have many possible implications for policy including the effect that easily obtained credit has for low income households

the economics of renewable energy expansion in rural sub saharan africa accelerating development in sub saharan africa will require massive expansion of access to electricity currently reaching only about one third of households this paper explores how essential economic development might be reconciled with the need to keep carbon emissions in check the authors develop a geographically explicit framework and use spatial modeling and cost estimates from recent engineering studies to determine where stand alone renewable energy generation is a cost effective alternative to centralized grid supply the results suggest that decentralized renewable energy will likely play an important role in expanding rural energy access but it will be the lowest cost option for a minority of households in africa even when likely cost reductions over the next 20 years are considered decentralized renewables are competitive mostly in remote and rural areas while grid connected supply dominates denser areas where the majority of households reside these findings underscore the need to de carbonize the fuel mix for centralized power generation as it expands in africa

non universal nature of energy poverty energy services assessment of needs and consumption evidences from rural himachal pradesh abstract consumer behavior in rural ecosystems represents considerable variations vis a vis consumption of energy in different forms consumer preference towards any given energy service is a function of geographical situatedness local customs traditions and tastes including local weather conditions rural flavour of energy poverty has a distinctive micro character which can be understood in terms of socio cultural behaviourism of an energy consumer this geo spatial flavour further appears to be a function of socio economic functionalities of communities which could be socio culturally similar or different energy poverty is saddled with conceptual concentricity empirical evidence shows that the phenomena and the concept both are vulnerable in terms of operationalization by means of a single universal definition it exhibits contrarian hues in terms of availability access distribution affordability and acceptability of an energy service this study presents an alternative approach to understanding of both the phenomena and the associated conceptual construct the present paper is an explicit representation of the everyday grain of energy needs and consumption patterns in six rural socio cultural systems this study based upon fieldwork in the six villages viz bhadroya thapkour and gaghwal kangra district and kakira bidingi and talhara chamba district throws up interesting findings which challenge the contemporary discourse on energy poverty

the politico economics of electricity planning in developing countries a case study of ghana abstract off grid technologies are increasingly being proposed as a way of ensuring cost efficient universal access to electricity in many developing countries however many un electrified communities would prefer access to electricity via the national grid rather than off grid technologies electricity planning based on cost efficiency alone could therefore be undermined by political pressure from discontented communities that are assigned off grid technologies using a case study of un electrified communities in ghana we develop an electricity planning algorithm based on hierarchical lexicographic programming and consider specifications where the priorities are adjusted to give weight to 1 cost efficiency and 2 political economy considerations so that communities with larger populations and therefore votes are given priority in terms of grid electrification the results emphasise the need to incorporate the political economy considerations in the national planning of universal electrification showing significant regional differences in terms of where grid extensions ought to be placed incorporating a political economy perspective in national planning also suggests that the most important policy trade offs shift from considering the grid versus off grid balance to focussing more on the effectiveness of grid investment in providing universal access

who adopts lpg as the main cooking fuel and why empirical evidence on ghana based on national survey the aim of this paper is to identify the factors that influence the probability of adopting lpg as the main cooking fuel in ghana using household level data gleaned from last two nationwide household surveys glss 5 glss 6 using a flexible semi parametric specification the following were uncovered first we find socioeconomic and demographic factors such as income education access to urban infrastructure and location of household as key drivers of households choice of lpg as main cooking energy source again the influences of these factors are stable across time and with a strong price effect the evidence shows that urban households with better socioeconomic and demographic factors are likely to adopt lpg as the main cooking fuel relative to households in rural areas and also urban households with poor socioeconomic and demographic factors finally we observe that the imposition of fully parametric structure functional form prior to estimation on factors such as age of household head income and household size as done in the literature is inappropriate at least in the case of ghana and tend to bias the marginal effects there is strong evidence of variations in the response rate of lpg adoption over the domains of income household size and the age of the household head the results suggest a policy dichotomy between rural and urban dwellers for it to be effective

least cost network evaluation of centralized and decentralized contributions to global electrification abstract the choice between centralized and decentralized electricity generation is examined for 150 countries as a function of population distribution electricity consumption transmission cost and the cost difference between decentralized and centralized electricity generation a network algorithm is developed to find the shortest centralized transmission network that spans a given fraction of the population in a country the least cost combination of centralized and decentralized electricity that serves the country is determined case studies of botswana uganda and bangladesh illustrate situations that are more and less suited for decentralized electrification specific maps for centralized and decentralized generation are presented to show how the least cost option varies with the relative costs of centralized and decentralized generation and transmission cost centralized and decentralized fractions are calculated for 150 countries for most of the world s population centralized electricity is the least cost option for a number of countries particularly in africa substantial populations and regions may be most cost effectively served by decentralized electricity

households willingness to pay for reliable electricity services in ghana abstract access to reliable electricity is important in increasing the living standards of households and promoting sustainable development however ghanaian households have had to grapple with frequent power outages and poor quality electricity services in recent times this study examines the factors influencing households willingness to pay for reliable electricity services in ghana using data collected from 950 households in the cape coast metropolitan area and the tobit regression technique it was revealed that monthly income prior notice on power outages business ownership separate meter ownership household size and education significantly affect willingness to pay for reliable electricity services on the average households were prepared to pay 44 percent gh 6 80 us 3 42 more relative to the mean monthly electricity bill in the sample to improve electricity services it is envisaged that the findings would be used by policy makers and utility companies to make electricity generation and distribution more sustainable and efficient

capital mobility in saving and investment a time varying coefficients approach abstract this paper uses a model with time varying coefficients in order to track changes in feldstein horioka saving retention coefficients over time to the extent that such coefficients measure international capital mobility the main empirical findings are as follows first the stability of the saving retention coefficient is strongly rejected second capital has long been perfectly mobile in canada third capital mobility has never been high in the united states fourth capital was more mobile in japan and the united kingdom at the turn of the 20th century than it has been during the postwar period capital mobility has risen in argentina italy and sweden since around 1970 finally capital mobility for most of the countries considered has not monotonically increased during the postwar period

the feldstein hoiroka puzzle across countries this article tests the feldstein hoiroka puzzle for a sample of 49 countries from two angles that of co movements in the saving investment series and the magnitude of the saving retention coefficient src the overall conclusion we obtain from the results of three different cointegration tests leaves no room for puzzle in the majority of the countries included in the sample on the other hand various statistical tests applied to the srcs show that there are significant differences among the high income middle income and low income country groups with regards to the salient aspects of capital mobility first there are significant differences in the average srcs of the country groups second the srcs are differently distributed around their means among the country groups the results yielded by a third test dictate that future research should pay more attention to the underlying distribution of the srcs within country groups when testing the country size argument

rural electrification in zambia a policy and institutional analysis abstract zambia is well endowed with hydropower and other energy resources which could facilitate production of electricity for both urban and rural areas of the country the country has an installed electricity generation capacity of 1786 mw and undeveloped hydropower potential of over 6000 mw in the last few years demand has been growing and it is anticipated to outstrip supply in 2008 the load growth is attributed to increased mining activities and development of the industrial base the country is also endowed with abundant natural resources such as arable land water minerals and wildlife with the available resource base electricity along with other social and economic infrastructure such as roads and telecommunications could facilitate increased economic activities in rural areas electricity could be used for crop irrigation agro processing small scale mining and to facilitate tourism however rural electrification re faces many challenges such as long distances from existing power stations to targeted rural areas low population densities high poverty levels and low skills availability these and other factors have contributed to continued low levels of access to electricity in rural areas of the country measures so far undertaken to facilitate access to electricity in rural areas of zambia include the adoption of a new national energy policy nep in 1994 with regard to the electricity sector and re in particular the nep was aimed at facilitating increased access by liberalising and restructuring the electricity market and promoting the use of low cost technologies and decentralised renewable energies to facilitate implementation of the new policy the government established a legal and institutional framework by enacting new legislation namely the electricity act and the energy regulation act in 1995 the electricity act provided for liberalisation and regulation of the electricity sector while the energy regulation act provided for the establishment of an independent regulator so as to stimulate private sector participation and efficiency in addition a rural electrification fund ref and associated administration mechanism was established in 1995 however re continued to experience many challenges in 2003 the government enacted the rural electrification act leading to the establishment of an agency dedicated to re this paper analyses the policy legal and institutional measures implemented in zambia and assesses their potential or effectiveness to tackle some of the challenges facing re in the country so as to increase access and affordability

research and development aspects on decentralized electrification options for rural household abstract low income households living in the rural areas suffer from energy poverty and lack of human and economic development currently many governments of less developed countries are committed in improving access to electricity the same commitment should be adapted globally as part of human right because providing electricity access to low income households improves health and education generates income increases productivity reduces inequality and enhances the quality of life rural electrification is a complicated issue because of user affordability rural inaccessibility and remoteness low population densities and dispersed households low project profitability fiscal deficit scarcity of energy resources population growth lack of professionalism and over dependence on subsidies the demand for electrification cannot be accomplished because of the increasing gap between rural electrification rate and population growth therefore this review aims to study various decentralized household sized energy technologies available in rural areas such as battery diesel generator pedal generator pico hydro photovoltaic pv solar home system and wind preference for one of the options depends on energy source availability economic feasibility rural economic development disposal of residues nature of end user application and government programs and policies pico hydro is the preferred electricity generation source in most rural households followed by wind pv and diesel generators this paper concurs that households in rural areas will be able to afford for electricity access if the payment schedule of the electrification cost is extended and interest rates and taxes if any are dropped

demand customer base line and demand response in the electricity market a survey the increasing use of demand side management as a tool to reliably meet electricity demands at peak time has stimulated interest among researchers consumers and producer organiza tions managers regulators and policymakers this research reviews the growing literature on models which are used to study demand customer base line cbl and demand response in the electricity market after characterizing the general demand models the cbl based on which the demand response models are studied is reviewed given the experience gained from the review and existing conditions the study combines an appropriate model for each case for a possible application to the electricity market moreover it discusses the implications of the results in the literature these aspects are studied independently the main contribution of this survey is attributed to the treatment of the three issues as sequentially interdependent the review is expected to enhance the understanding of the demand cbl and demand response in the electricity market and their relationships the objective is conducted through a combination of demand and supply side managements in order to reduce demand through different demand response programs during peak times this enables electricity suppliers to save costly electricity generation and at the same time reduce energy vulnerability