the political economy of bilateral bailouts imf loans during times of financial crisis often occur in conjunction with bilateral financial rescues these bilateral bailouts are substantial in size and a central component of international cooperation during financial crises we analyze the political economy of bilateral bailouts and study the trade offs that potential creditor governments experience when other countries find themselves in financial distress creditor governments want to stabilize crisis countries by providing additional liquidity particularly if the crisis country is economically or politically important to them but they are constrained by domestic politics politicians aim to balance these countervailing pressures they provide bailouts when their own economy is exposed to negative spillover effects and when the crisis country is important for geostrategic military or political reasons domestic economic and political constraints on the other hand limit their ability to bail out other countries we test our hypotheses using an original data set on bilateral bailouts by the g7 countries to countries that experienced financial crises between 1975 and 2010 the findings of our statistical analysis support our theoretical argument and contribute to a deeper understanding of international cooperation s complex structure during financial crises

the dynamics of individuals fat consumption consumers are increasingly aware of the link between their lifestyle choices and the risk of noncommunicable diseases a dynamic approach incorporating this linkage in food demand is developed where consumers maximize utility over time by choosing fat intake to control their cumulative fat level the resulting dynamic indirect utility function and household data on meat fish and dairy consumption are used to estimate a censored demand system results show that consumers consciously adjust but not instantaneously their cumulative fat level highly educated households have a faster rate of adjustment of cumulative fat when cumulative fat level increases consumers shift to dairy or white meat from red meat products

consumer acceptance valuation of and attitudes towards genetically modified food review and implications for food policy abstract an increasing set of evidence has been reported on how consumers could potentially react to the introduction of genetically modified food studies typically contain some empirical evidence and some theoretical explanations of the data however to date limited effort has been posed on systematically reviewing the existing evidence and its implications for policy this paper contributes to the literature by bringing together the published evidence on the behavioural frameworks and evidence on the process leading to the public acceptance of genetically modified gm food and organisms gmos in doing so we employ a set of clearly defined search tools and a limited number of comprehensive key words the study attempts to gather an understanding of the published findings on the determinants of the valuation of gm food both in terms of willingness to accept and the willing to pay a premium for non gm food trust with information sources on the safety and public health and ultimate attitudes underpinning such evidence furthermore in the light of such evidence we formulate some policy strategies to deal with public uncertainly regarding to gmos and especially gm food

voluntary sovereign debt exchanges we show that some recent sovereign debt restructurings were characterized by i the absence of missed debt payments prior to the restructurings ii reductions in the government s debt burden and iii increases in the market value of debt claims for holders of the restructured debt since both the government and its creditors are likely to benefit from such restructurings we label these episodes as voluntary debt exchanges we present a model in which voluntary debt exchanges can occur in equilibrium when the debt level takes values above the one that maximizes the market value of debt claims in contrast to previous studies on debt overhang in our model opportunities for voluntary exchanges arise because a debt reduction implies a decline of sovereign default risk this is observed in the absence of any effect of debt reductions on future output levels although voluntary exchanges are pareto improving at the time of the restructuring we show that eliminating the possibility of conducting voluntary exchanges may improve welfare from an ex ante perspective thus our results highlight a cost of initiatives that facilitate debt restructurings

quality quantity and spatial variation of price this paper develops and implements a method for estimating price elasticities of demand using cross sectional household survey data geographically clustered households report unit values which when corrected for quality effects and for measurement error indicate the underlying spatial variation in prices and can be matched to variation in demand patterns a simple model of quality choice is proposed while the correction for measurement error exploits the clustered design of such surveys data from a 1979 household survey from the ivory coast are used to estimate price elasticities for beef meat fish cereals and starches copyright 1988 by american economic association

sovereign debt relief and its aftermath this paper studies sovereign debt relief in a long term perspective we quantify the relief achieved through default and restructuring in two distinct samples 1920 1939 focusing on the defaults on official government to government debt in advanced economies after world war i and 1978 2010 focusing on emerging market debt crises with private external creditors debt relief was substantial in both eras averaging 21 of gdp in the 1930s and 16 of gdp in recent decades we then analyze the aftermath of debt relief and conduct a difference in differences analysis around the synchronous war debt defaults of 1934 and the baker and brady initiatives of the 1980s 1990s the economic landscape of debtor countries improves signicantly after debt relief operations but only if these involve debt write offs softer forms of debt relief such as maturity extensions and interest rate reductions are not generally followed by higher economic growth or improved credit ratings jel e6 f3 n0 and h6

prices and quality effects in cross sectional demand analysis a conceptual clarification of the sources and meaning of cross sectional price variability is used to motivate a theoretical and econometric framework for the estimation of cross sectional demand functions quality effects are distinguished from supply related price variability to identify cross sectional demand for disaggregated food commodities an empirical application using data from the 1977 78 nationwide food consumption survey indicates that parameter differences resulting from a failure to adjust cross sectional prices for quality effects are likely to be small for relatively homogenous disaggregated food commodities in demand analysis with cross sectional household budget data it is usually assumed that prices are constant allen and bowley prais and houthakker george and king given this assumption engel functions are estimated where expenditure or quantity is regressed on income or total expenditures family size and other demographic characteristics the assumption that cross sectional price effects are absent or are captured adequately by spatial and temporal dummy variables has not been evaluated empirically whether cross sectional price effects can be treated in this manner has implications for the specification of cross sectional demand functions as well as the estimation of engel functions there is a considerable literature on estimating price elasticities with cross sectional data most of the applications utilize timeseries cross sectional data annual or quarterly household consumption surveys and

demand systems estimation with microdata a censored regression approach demand systems estimation increasingly makes use of household level microdata mainly to measure the effects of demographic variables data based on these household expenditure surveys present a major estimation problem for any given household many of the goods have zero consumption implying a censored dependent variable techniques which do not take this censored dependent variable into account will yield biased results we utilize a censored regression approach that is computationally simple consistent and asymptotically efficient the results are then presented and compared with those obtained using an uncensored technique

debt relief and debtor outcomes measuring the effects of consumer bankruptcy protection consumer bankruptcy is one of the largest social insurance programs in the united states but little is known about its impact on debtors we use 500 000 bankruptcy filings matched to administrative tax and foreclosure data to estimate the impact of chapter 13 bankruptcy protection on subsequent outcomes exploiting the random assignment of bankruptcy filings to judges we find that chapter 13 protection increases annual earnings by 5 562 decreases five year mortality by 1 2 percentage points and decreases five year foreclosure rates by 19 1 percentage points these results come primarily from the deterioration of outcomes among dismissed filers not gains by granted filers jel d14 i12 j22 j31 k35

an emprical model of the demand for a varied diet this study attempts to measure some aspects of the household s demand for a varied die by invesigaing how he number of individual foods consumed b he household is affeced b is preferences and food expendiure a heoriical model suggesed b household production theory is adopted to empirical data from a cross section of households it is found that the number of individual foods consumed is strongly responsive to househjold expenditure on all foods

demand for beef from cattle administered growth hormones or fed genetically modified corn a comparison of consumers in france germany the united kingdom and the united states we compare consumer valuations of beef ribeye steaks from cattle produced without growth hormones or genetically modified corn in france germany the united kingdom and the united states results suggest that french consumers place a higher value on beef from cattle that have not been administered added growth hormones than u s consumers however valuations of non hormone treated beef are statistically indistinguishable across germany the united kingdom and the united states results also suggest that european consumers place a much higher value on beef from cattle that have not been fed genetically modified corn than u s consumers copyright 2003 oxford university press

the impact of regulations on agricultural trade evidence from the sps and tbt agreements according to world trade organization rules countries may adopt regulations under the agreements on sanitary and phyto sanitary sps and technical barriers to trade tbt we analyze the structure of these measures in agricultural trade the inventory approach suggests that european countries have among the lowest coverage ratios of all oecd countries using a gravity equation we also estimate their stringency our results suggest that they significantly reduce developing countries exports to oecd countries but do not affect trade between oecd members furthermore european imports are more negatively influenced by sps and tbts than imports of other oecd countries

the forgotten history of domestic debt there is a rich scholarly literature on sovereign default on external debt comparatively little is known about sovereign default on domestic debt even today cross country data on domestic public debt remains curiously exotic particularly prior to the 1980s we have filled this gap in the literature by compiling a database on central government public debt external and domestic the data span 1914 to 2010 for most countries reaching back into the nineteenth century and earlier for many our findings here on debt sustainability sovereign defaults the temptation to inflate and the hierarchy of creditors only scratch the surface of what the domestic public debt data can reveal first domestic debt is big for the 64 countries for which we have long time series domestic debt accounts for almost two thirds of total public debt for most of the sample this debt carries a market determined interest rate except for the financial repression era between wwii and financial liberalization second the data go a long way toward explaining the puzzle of why countries so often default on their external debts at seemingly low debt thresholds third domestic debt has largely been ignored in the vast empirical work on inflation in fact domestic debt a significant portion of which is long term and nonindexed is often much larger than the monetary base in the run up to high inflation episodes last the widely held view that domestic residents are strictly junior to external creditors does not find broad support

who do consumers trust for information the case of genetically modified foods to be effective groups that disseminate information need the trust of consumers when multiple groups provide conflicting information on a new product or process like gm foods consumers place different levels of trust in the various sources we present a model of the contributions of personal and social capital of a consumer and test a multinominal logit model of relative trust in five different sources of information on genetic modification using a unique data set among our findings is that an increase in consumer s education lowers the probability of trusting information from government private industry organizations consumer and environmental groups or other sources relative to information from an independent third party source and conservative religious affiliation reduces the odds of a consumer trusting private industry organization and increases the odds of trusting nobody relative to an independent third party source

optimal portfolio selection and dynamic benchmark tracking abstract this paper analyzes different approaches to portfolio selection when the requirement to portfolio performance is formulated relative to a given benchmark for example it may be desirable to track a market index as closely as possible we develop several portfolio selection algorithms based on different perceptions of risk and different risk target measures ranging from the traditional variance to the more modern value at risk in a dynamic setting we address the issue of optimal portfolio rebalancing we develop an algorithm for determining whether or not to rebalance a given portfolio based on transaction costs and new information about market conditions our approaches are tested on a set of stock data from the oslo stock exchange

modeling the interplay between sanitary and phytosanitary measures and tariff rate quotas under partial trade liberalization non tariff measures particularly sanitary and phytosanitary measures and tariff rate quotas are two critical policy barriers that impede agricultural trade unlike simple tariffs both measures contain non linear effects and binding conditions that make their treatment in modeling trade liberalization challenging in addition the coexistence of these measures carries important interactive effects that restrict trade this study investigates these joint effects by developing a conceptual framework that considers different partial liberalization scenarios our framework points to three cases that may arise a binding tariff rate quota non prohibitive sanitary and phytosanitary measure b non binding tariff rate quota non prohibitive sanitary and phytosanitary measure and c non binding tariff rate quota prohibitive sanitary and phytosanitary measure we then use a computable general equilibrium model to examine partial trade liberalization scenarios for these cases using the ongoing transatlantic trade and investment partnership negotiations as our motivation our simulations provide a more nuanced analysis of complex trade liberalization and demonstrate the importance of modeling the interplay between these different types of barriers

food demand in mexico an application of the amemiya tobin approach to the estimation of a censored food system the modeling of micro level food demand patterns requires not only allowing for household heterogeneity but also addressing the problem of censoring in this article we present a variation of the amemiya tobin framework for estimating a censored demand system that allows for household heterogeneity the unique aspect of our approach is the use of a procedure that ensures the adding up of both latent and observed expenditure shares and also imposes expenditure share nonnegativity this system is applied to an analysis of food demand based on a random sample of urban mexican households

disaggregated household meat demand with censored data previous research on meat demand has generally used highly aggregated data across time products and consumers however meat products across species are likely stronger substitutes than some products from the same species further demand for specific meat products would be expected to respond differently to market information about food safety or other events this study uses monthly consumer panel data collected between 1992 and 2000 to estimate a disaggregated meat product demand system the use of the expectations maximization algorithm is introduced to estimate a demand system that adjusts for the econometric problem of censored data resulting from purchased shares of some products by individuals often being equal to zero results indicate that certain individual meat products have noticeably different own price elasticities than existing aggregate meat product estimates of their respective species some individual meat products have stronger substitutes across species than within species e g be

estimation of demand functions using cross sectional household data the problem revisited a procedure that corrects for selectivity bias is proposed to estimate demand functions using cross sectional data under the assumption that prices vary across households this procedure which extends the work by cox and wohlgenant includes a two equation system of expenditure and unit value functions this model is applied to household expenditures for beef steaks and roasts

quality variation and quantity aggregation in consumer demand for food viewing the problem of quality variation in consumer demand for food as a problem of valid aggregation over goods leads to new insights the simple sum of physical quantities used as the measure of demand in the quality literature is found to be a theoretically arbitrary and potentially misleading measure of demand when goods are heterogenous alternative measures of demand derived from restrictions on quality variation consumer preferences or relative prices are investigated a hypothetical example illustrates the use of a hicksian composite commodity assumption the empirical as well as conceptual merits of the various measures are discussed the usual assumption made about prices in a cross section analysis of household food expenditures is that all households are facing the same prices estimation of price elasticities of demand is commonly left to time series researchers who get price information from intertemporal indices recently however there has been renewed interest in the otential of cross section analysis for estimation of price elasticities of demand for food especially when surveys collect data on both household expenditures for food items and on the physical quantities purchased

demand for beef and chicken products separability and structural change several studies have indicated that the recent shift from beef to poultry in consumption is not entirely caused by changes in rela tive prices or income braschler chavas dahlgran hudson and vertin moschini and meilke frank thurman most studies of structural change have focused on red meat consumption only thurman has looked closely at the poultry market and no one has considered poultry products yet the mix of chicken products marketed changed dramat ically during the last twenty years and should have influenced aggregate meat demand the share of broiler slaughter marketed as whole birds declined from 74 in 1965 to 28 in 1985 while cut up parts and processed chick en products increased from 26 to 72 whole birds are inferior goods and cut up parts and processed chicken are normal goods haidacher et al the shift in chicken prod uct mix away from whole birds should have increased the preference for total chicken in this article two related questions are ad dressed first do consumers allocate expendi tures among meats by animal origin or by product type second does disaggregation of meat into products in a meat demand model give insight into the causes of structural

debt and default in the 1930s causes and consequences abstract this paper studies interwar experience with external debt and default it begins with a description of the contours of international borrowing and lending in the 1920s we then use some empirical models from recent literature on the 1970s to describe the interwar data macroeconomic variables for over 20 countries are related to cross section variations in borrowing and debt during the period from the end of the 1920s to 1938 the paper then considers the incidence and correlates of sovereign default for 1934 1938 using regression to determine the association between standard measures of economic structure and performance and subsequent interruptions to debt service such variables as the magnitude of the debt burden the deterioration of the terms of trade during the great depression and the stance of monetary and fiscal policies provide a remarkably accurate explanation of the incidence of default we go on to provide a long run perspective on default and on the remedies available to creditors the provisions of loan contracts are reviewed with an eye toward analyzing the scope for renegotiation the discussion emphasizes the contrast between the regime of bond finance that prevalied in the interwar years and the current regime of bank lending we analyze the roles of governments banks and bondholders protective committees in the negotiation process we then present new estimates of the ex post realized rates of return on british and american foreign lending in the 1920s this empirical analysis uncovers a striking contrast in the returns realized on loans floated in the two countries while the nominal internal rate of return on dollar loans was less than 1 per annum the comparable return on sterling loans was in excess of 5 the paper concludes with a discussion of factors which help to account for this dramatic difference

official debt restructurings and development abstract despite the frequency of official debt restructurings little systematic evidence has been produced on their characteristics and implications using a dataset covering more than 400 paris club agreements this paper fills that gap it provides a comprehensive description of the evolving characteristics of these operations and studies their impact on debtors the progressive introduction of new terms of treatment gradually turned the paris club from an institution primarily concerned with preserving creditors claims into an instrument to foster development in the world s poorer nations among other objectives our study finds that more generous restructuring conditions involving nominal relief are associated with an acceleration of per capita gdp growth and with a reduction in poverty and inequality we also find that countries receiving nominal relief tend to receive lower aid flows subsequently the opposite being the case for countries receiving high reductions in the net present value of their obligations but no nominal haircuts

formulation of the russell yasuda kasai financial planning model this paper describes the formulation of the russell yasuda kasai financial planning model including the motivation for the model the presentation complements the discussion of the technical details of the financial modeling process and the managerial impact of its use to help allocate the firm s assets over time discussed in carin o et al 1994 1998 respectively the multistage stochastic linear program incorporates yasuda kasai s asset and liability mix over a five year horizon followed by an infinite horizon steady state end effects period the objective is to maximize expected long run profits less expected penalty costs from constraint violations over the infinite horizon scenarios are used to represent the uncertain parameter distributions the constraints represent the institutional cash flow legal tax and other limitations on the asset and liability mix over time

the combination of gravity and welfare approaches for evaluating nontariff measures this article explores the link between gravity and welfare frameworks for measuring the impact of nontariff measures first an analytical approach suggests how to combine a gravity equation with a partial equilibrium model to determine the welfare impact of nontariff measures second an empirical application focuses on the effects of a standard that caps antibiotic residues in crustaceans in the united states the european union canada and japan while the econometric estimation of the gravity equation reports a negative impact on imports welfare evaluations show that in most cases a stricter standard leads to an increase in both domestic and international welfare

us agricultural exports and labor market adjustments this study empirically investigates the impact of us agricultural exports on farm and nonfarm employment and tests how individuals adjust to agricultural export shocks based on the data from 1991 to 2017 and a bartik style instrument that exploits cross regional variation in agricultural export exposure stemming from initial differences in agricultural specialization and temporal variation in predicted us exports from exogenous tariff reductions we find that a 1 increase in agricultural exports increases farm employment by 0 302 and has no statistically significant impact on nonfarm employment the individual level analysis shows that in response to positive agricultural export demand shocks natives with a college degree are more likely to become self employed and start farm activities and while non natives without a college degree are more likely to become hired farmworkers a back of the envelope calculation based on the estimates of agricultural trade elasticities of employment shows that on balance job gains due to us agricultural exports are slightly larger than job loss due to agricultural imports resulting in a net gain of around 0 24 million farm jobs over 1991 2017

validating energy oriented cge models although cge models have received heavy usage they are often criticized as being insufficiently validated key parameters are often not econometrically estimated and the performance of the model as a whole is rarely checked against historical outcomes as a consequence questions frequently arise as to how much faith one can put in cge results in this paper we employ a novel approach to the validation of a widely utilized global cge model gtap e by comparing the variance of model generated petroleum price distributions driven by historical demand and supply shocks to the model with observed five year moving average price distributions we conclude that energy demand in gtap e is far too price elastic over this time frame after incorporating the latest econometric estimates of energy demand and supply elasticities we revisit the validation question and find the model to perform more satisfactorily as a further check we compare a deterministic global general equilibrium simulation based on historical realizations over the 2001 2006 period during which petroleum prices rose sharply along with growing global energy demands as anticipated by the stochastic simulations the revised model parameters perform much better than the original gtap e parameters in this global general equilibrium context

a strategy for efficient debt reduction f or the past seven years the u s government has managed the debt crisis with the preeminent goal of sustaining the flow of debt servicing payments from the debtor countries to the commercial banks the focus on the banks especially in the first years of the crisis 1982 85 is easily explained several money center banks had exposure of nearly 200 percent of bank capital in latin america alone upon the outbreak of the crisis in 1982 a widespread suspension of debt service payments could well have sunk several major banks i have discussed the u s government s policy focus on the debt servicing to the commercial banks in sachs 1986b 1989c and sachs and huizinga 1987 but today those policies are being revised after years of steady decline in the exposure ratios of the most heavily exposed banks the risk of a u s banking crash as the result of the debt crisis is now virtually nonexistent in addition the burden of debt payments is contributing to profound economic crises and growing political instability in almost all of the democracies in latin america a wide range of analysts now concurs that the debt burden should be reduced not only for the sake of the debtors but also for the sake of the creditors who have an important long run stake in allowing the developing countries to surmount the current acute crisis the brady plan unveiled by secretary of treasury nicholas brady in march 1989 is based on the need for a reduction of the debt burden

hierarchic demand and the engel curve for variety ahstract the usual treatment of consumer demand theory assumes a solution to the demand equations with positive quantities of all commodities this paper characterises a class called hierarchic demand systems for which only a subset of commodities are in the purchased set the hierarchic linear expenditure svstem is used to illustrate interesting properties of such systems the empirical section shows how the number of commodities purchased expands with total expenditure both in aggregate and for commodity groups the data clearly establish the empirical importance of corner solutions and of the purchase decision in demand studies

estimating the public value of conflicting information the case of genetically modified foods environmental groups have be food products other than those that norcome the chief antagonists toward agricultural bio mally carry allergens see friends of the technology innovations they demonstrate and dis earth 2001 greenpeace international 2001 seminate private information with the objective of through press releases web sites and pro changing the behavior of consumers and productests environmental ers we use experimental auctions with adult u s groups have been succonsumers and show that this information reduces cessful at publicizing their negative views significantly the demand for genetically modified on gm foods and affecting consumers and gm food products and that it has significant producer s behavior 2 public good value an average of 3 cents per prod environmental groups share the costs uct purchased or roughly 2 billion annually we of producing negative gm information 3 also show that the dissemination of independent third party information about agricultural biotech their members benefit collectively from nology dissipatesmost of the public good value of reductions in demand for gm products negative gm product information

the indirect land use impacts of united states biofuel policies the importance of acreage yield and bilateral trade responses recent work has highlighted agricultural land conversion as a significant debit in the greenhouse gas accounting of ethanol as an alternative fuel this work has at the same time sparked considerable debate on the role of crop yield growth as a means of avoiding rapid land conversion we examine the agricultural land use impacts of mandate driven ethanol demand increases in the united states in a formal economic equilibrium framework which allows us to examine the importance of yield price relationships we find that the standard assumption of trend yield growth is likely restrictive for analysis of equilibrium response to significant demand increases for fuel feedstocks furthermore we identify both the acreage response and bilateral trade specification of a multi country model as important sources of variability in terms of parametric uncertainty in predicting global land use change from the biofuels boom

a bank asset and liability management model in managing its assets and liabilities in light of uncertainties in cash flows cost of funds and return on investments a bank must determine its optimal trade off between risk return and liquidity in this paper we develop a multiperiod stochastic linear programming model alm that includes the essential institutional legal financial and bank related policy considerations and their uncertainties yet is computationally tractable for realistically sized problems a version of the model was developed for the vancouver city savings credit union for a 5 year planning period the results indicate that alm is theoretically and operationally superior to a corresponding deterministic linear programming model and that the effort required for the implementation of alm and its computational requirements are comparable to those of the deterministic model moreover the qualitative and quantitative characteristics of the solutions are sensitive to the model s stochastic elements such as the asymmetry of cash flow distributions we also compare alm with the stochastic decision tree sdt model developed by s p bradley and d b crane alm is computationally more tractable on realistically sized problems than sdt and simulation results indicate that alm generates superior policies

modeling the pattern of structural change in u s meat demand the hypothesis of structural change in u s meat demand is tested in a four meat almost ideal demand system with parameters following a gradual switching regression model the results support the notion that structural change partly explains the observed u s meat consumption patterns structural change is biased against beef neutral for pork in favor of chicken and fish and it does not affect estimated elasticities the estimated path of structural change implies a rapid transition to a new regime in the mid 1970s although a smooth path cannot be ruled out

stochastic network programming for financial planning problems several financial planning problems are posed as dynamic generalized network models with stochastic parameters examples include asset allocation for portfolio selection international cash management and programmed trading arbitrage despite the large size of the resulting stochastic programs the network structure can be exploited within the solution strategy giving rise to efficient implementations empirical results are presented indicating the benefits of the stochastic network approach for the asset allocation case

the output costs of hard and soft sovereign default abstract how costly are sovereign debt crises in this paper we study output losses during sovereign default and debt renegotiation episodes since 1980 in contrast to previous work we account for the severity of default and not only for its occurrence specifically we distinguish between hard and soft defaults using new data on debtor payment and negotiation behavior and on the size of haircuts towards private external creditors we show that hard defaults are associated with a much steeper drop in gdp of up to ten percent compared to soft defaults the results are consistent with theoretical models assuming proportional output costs of default

on line portfolio selection using stochastic programming abstract this paper is dedicated to the problem of dynamic portfolio optimization for the case when the number of decision periods is large and new information about market arrives during each such period we propose the family of adaptive portfolio selection policies which rebalance the current portfolio during each decision period by adopting portfolio from a specified family with the best performance on the past data in the absence of transaction costs the general conditions are found under which this policy yields asymptotically the same performance as the best portfolio from the same family constructed with the full knowledge of the future these results are extended for the case of nonzero transaction costs by introducing a class of threshold portfolio optimization policies which rebalance current portfolio only when its performance differs from performance of the best portfolio by a given threshold the value of this threshold is adapted to the changing market conditions we show that it is possible to select a sequence of threshold values in such a way that the asymptotic influence of transaction costs on portfolio performance is negligible and overall portfolio performance is asymptotically the same as the performance of portfolio with the perfect knowledge of the future we do not assume neither specific probabilistic structure of the market data nor their stationarity our theory is illustrated by numerical experiments with real data finally we discuss the relevance of our results in the context of high performance computing

the quantity and variety of households meat purchases a censored demand system approach this study investigates the demand for 10 disaggregated meat products by u s households a censored demand system which imposes budget constraints in both observed and latent shares is estimated along with a detailed explanation of the estimation procedure additional details about the methodology not provided in previous studies should help researchers to empirically apply the model an innovation of the study is to introduce the censored demand system model for studying the variety of a household s food purchases most households buy between seven and eight different products and hardly change the variety of their purchases with changes in meat expenditure

sovereign debt and financial crises theory and historical evidence this issue of the journal of the european economic association presents papers from the october 2014 conference on sovereign debt crises organized by sebnem kalemli ozcan carmen reinhart and ken rogoff this project arose from the need to provide rigorous research on the topic the so called great contraction in the world s advanced economies is the most severe and synchronized global nancial crisis since the great depression it has forced all concerned parties to reassess the roles played by public and private debt as well as the importance of international nancial linkages nations in the european union continue to struggle with a crisis over the debts of periphery countries most notably greece but also ireland spain portugal and italy the failure ofmost advanced countries to recover or to regain precrisis levels of employment and growth in its aftermath raises fears of experiencing the equivalent of japan s lost decade in the wake of the crisis it is clear that the macroeconomic models previously used by central banks and others have severe limitations in particular thesemodels do not adequately incorporate nancial frictions and are almost always estimated over relatively narrow data sets that do not span nancial crises the recent crisis also raises many other issues including the links among government and private sector debt the nancial sector and the political processes governing the resolution of scal and nancial distress the papers in this volume address three key issues

rules of thumb for sovereign debt crises abstract this paper investigates the economic and political conditions that are associated to the occurrence of a sovereign debt crisis we use a new statistical approach classification and regression tree that allows us to derive a collection of rules of thumb that help identify the typical characteristics of defaulters we find that not all crises are equal they differ depending on whether the government faces insolvency illiquidity or various macroeconomic risks we also characterize the set of fundamentals that can be associated with a relatively risk free zone this classification is important for discussing appropriate policy options to prevent crises and improve response time and prediction

integrated simulation and optimization models for tracking indices of fixed income securities increasing performance pressures on fixed income managers have led to a search for new and creative ways to add to portfolio returns the largest pension plan sponsors insurance companies foundations and money management firms are using indexed portfolios as their fixed income assets management strategies since the late 1970s tracking a fixed income index is a difficult task due to transaction costs portfolio size and diversification restrictions liquidity requirements bid ask spreads etc this paper develops an integrated simulation and optimization approach for tracking fixed income indices the model was implemented at metropolitan life insurance company we introduce a simulation model for generating scenarios of holding period returns of the securities in the index then we develop optimization models to select a portfolio that tracks the index the models penalize downside deviations of the portfolio return from the index the developed framework is used to track the salomon brothers mortgag

sovereign debt and structural reforms motivated the european debt crisis we construct a tractable theory of sovereign debt and struc tural reforms under limited commitment the government of a sovereign country which has fallen into a recession of an uncertain duration issues one period debt and can renege on its obligations by suering a stochastic default cost when faced with a credible default threat creditors can make a take it or leave it debt haircut oer to the sovereign the risk of renegotiation is re ected in the price at which debt is sold the sovereign government can also do structural policy reforms that speed up recovery from the recession we characterize the competitive equilibrium and compare it with the constrained e cient allocation the equilibrium features increasing debt falling consump tion and a non monotone reform eort during the recession in contrast the constrained optimum yields step wise increasing consumption and step wise decreasing reform eort markets for state contingent debt alone do not restore e ciency the constrained optimum can be implemented by a exible assistance program enforced by an international institution that monitors the reform eort the terms of the program are improved every time the country poses a credible threat to leave the program unilaterally without repaying the outstanding loans

banking currency stock market and debt crises in spain 1850 1995 abstractwhat type of crisis is generated when debt increases we extend the literature by framework by introducing currency and stock market crises in the analysis we apply our proposal to the case of spain since this is a country that has experienced a very important amount of financial crises from the nineteenth century onwards we find the same results as the previous literature for the determinants of banking and debt crises but substituting external and public debt with perpetual debt and where perpetual debt has a less important role than crises in the private sector moreover we find evidence in favour of the hypothesis that currency crises depend strongly and positively on financial centre crises and negatively and mildly on perpetual debt we justify the negative relalionship due to an inflation tax we also find evidence in favour of the hypothesis that stock market crises depend only positively and strongly on financial centre crises

the demand for varied diet with econometric models for count data a negative binomial model was used to study the relationships between food expenditures household characteristics and the demand for different food items the results show that increases in food expenditure increase the number of food items consumed at home and the number of food items consumed at home is positively related to increases in the number of household members this change in the number of food items consumed at home increases at a decreasing rate as household size increases and becomes negative when household size becomes large

does food safety information impact u s meat demand a theoretical model of consumer response to publicized food safety information on meat demand is developed with an empirical application to u s meat consumption evidence is found for the existence of pre committed levels of consumption seasonal factors time trends and contemporaneous own and cross commodity food safety concerns the average demand response to food safety concerns is small especially in comparison to price effects and to previous estimates of health related issues this small average effect masks periods of significantly larger responses corresponding with prominent food safety events but these larger impacts are short lived with no apparent food safety lagged effects on food safety concerns in the united states have dramatically increased in the past decade with regard to incidences of contaminated meat products concerns have arisen because contaminated meat products can result in serious risk to the well being and health of consumers contamination comes from a myriad of sources including but not limited to outbreaks of listeria monocytogenes escherichia coli e coli and salmonella centers for disease control and prevention food safety problems are not isolated to the united states as other unsafe contaminates in meats have emerged across the world including highly publicized outbreaks of bovine spongiform encephalopathy bse in europe the potential impacts of publicized food safety events on consumer s demand for meat products in the united states include own effects on the demand for the contaminated meat involved as well as cross effects impacting the demand for other meats the objective of this article is to investigate whether publicized food safety concerns surrounding beef pork and poultry chicken and turkey have impacted meat consumption food safety indices are constructed separately for beef pork and poultry

financing vs forgiving a debt overhang abstract this paper examines the tradeoffs facing creditors of a country whose debt is large enough that the country cannot attract voluntary new lending if the country is unable to meet its debt service requirements out of current income the creditors have two choices they can finance the country lending at an expected loss in the hope that the country will eventually be able to repay its debt after all or they can forgive reducing the debt level to one that the country can repay the post 1983 debt strategy of the imf and the us has relied on financing but many current calls for debt reform call for forgiveness instead the paper shows that the choice between financing and forgiveness represents a tradeoff financing gives the creditors an option value if the country turns out to do relatively well creditors will not have written down their claims unnecessarily however the burden of debt distorts the country s incentives since the benefits of good performance go largely to creditors rather than itself the paper also shows that the tradeoff itself can be improved if both financing and forgiveness are made contingent on states of nature that the country cannot affect such as oil prices world interest rates etc

sovereign debt restructurings preemptive or post default sovereign debt restructurings can be implemented preemptively prior to a payment default we code a comprehensive new dataset and nd that preemptive restructurings i are frequent 38 of all deals 1978 2010 ii have lower haircuts iii are quicker to negotiate and iv see lower output losses to rationalize these stylized facts we build a quantitative sovereign debt model that incorporates preemptive and post default renegotiations the model improves the t with the data and explains the sovereign s optimal choice preemptive restructurings occur when default risk is high ex ante while defaults occur after unexpected bad shocks empirical evidence supports these predictions jel f34 f41 h63

elasticities in aids models in the literature a variety of approaches have been used to calculate demand elasticities in almost ideal demand system aids models of demand it is common to estimate the linear approximate almost ideal demand system la aids instead of the aids when the la aids is estimated all of the previously reported approaches to compute elasticities are theoretically incorrect this paper presents correct formulas for la aids elasticities and illustrates the potential errors from using incorrect computing the almost ideal demand system aids of deaton and muellbauer 1980a b has become popular in recent years anderson and blundell blanciforti and green 1983a b blanciforti green and king chalfant eales and unnevehr fujii khaled and mak fulponi heien and willett murray parsons ray a variety of approaches to computing elasticities has been used and some of the approaches may lead to significant errors this paper clarifies the differences between alternative approaches to estimating demand elasticities in aids models

characteristics and hedonic pricing of differentiated beef demands we estimate a cbs system model of u s derived demand for meat we use this model 1 to examine relationships between three quality categories of beef and three other meats and 2 to simulate how taste shifts have affected demands for meats over time we extend previous studies by disaggregating wholesale beef production into three quality categories 1 usda choice grade or higher 2 usda select or lower and 3 cow and bull beef innovative features of our empirical model include a breakout of table cuts into choice and select and the use of a hedonic characterization of the two breakouts to value choice ness and beef ness our model demonstrates important shifts in separate demands for choice and select beef we show that separately the demand for choice grade beef declined in the 1980s and 1990s and the demand for select beef increased a departure from the relatively stable demand characterizations of more aggregated measures of combined choice and select beef jel classification q11 q13

the consumer s demand for diversity abstract the consumer s demand for diversity is measured either by the entropy or by the hirschman herfindahl index of the budget shares this notion including the income elasticity of the demand for diversity is applied to per capita consumption data of 30 countries

consumer welfare effects of introducing and labeling genetically modified food abstract non hypothetical valuations obtained from experimental auctions in three united states and two european locations were used to calculate welfare effects of introducing and labeling of genetically modified food under certain assumptions we find that introduction of genetically modified food has been welfare enhancing on average for united states consumers but not so for europeans and while mandatory labeling has been beneficial for european consumers such a policy would be detrimental in the united states

do regional trade agreements increase members agricultural trade the gravity model is used extensively to investigate the trade flow effects of regional trade agreements rtas a notable feature common to previous research is the use of aggregate trade data these studies typically report conflicting and even negative results of the effect of rtas on members trade using recent developments in the gravity equation suggested by baier and bergstrand 2007 and anderson and van wincoop 2003 this article demonstrates that rta effects on members trade depend fundamentally on whether the analysis focuses on agricultural or nonagricultural sectors on the particular agreement analyzed and on the length of the phase in period that characterizes almost all rtas copyright 2008 oxford university press

price unit value and quality demanded abstract given the paucity of quality price data it is common to rely on unit value average expenditure per unit as a proxy for price but this is an imperfect proxy if households respond to price increases by substituting to lower quality goods this paper draws on survey data that contain both unit value and price to estimate the severity of quality substitution in indonesia finding that it is prevalent the paper next calculates price elasticities that correct for quality substitution evaluating and ultimately rejecting a commonly used method for calculating price elasticities using only unit value data finally it demonstrates that quality substitution can result in biased price elasticities even when price is perfectly observed

do voluntary biotechnology labels matter to the consumer evidence from the fluid milk market this article examines the effects on the demand of voluntary labeling for the use of genetically modified growth hormone for retail fluid milk using supermarket scanner data retail fluid milk tracks one of the first biotechnology products approved is fairly standardized and ubiquitous and allows for cross sectional differentiation between labeled and unlabeled products and between conventional and organic brands the results indicate that voluntary labeling increases the demand for recombinant bovine growth hormone free milk in addition the estimated effects of labeling appear to have increased over time innovations through biotechnology enable agricultural producers to reduce production costs and or enhance product quality for many livestock and crop commodities at the same time however these innovations may affect the demand for the products that utilize those commodities many individuals for example are concerned about potential risks to human health although by no means all consumers have such concerns burton metcalfe and smith heiman just and zilberman the use of the recombinant bovine growth hormone rbgh in milk production has been a particular concern for some consumers as approximately one third of the united states dairy herd about 3 million dairy cows currently receive rbgh supplements monsanto product labeling particularly with respect to the provision of health and environmental information is increasingly being used to provide information about product characteristics such as biotechnology content that

haircuts estimating investor losses in sovereign debt restructurings 1998 2005 abstract we calculate investor losses haircuts and recovery values in recent debt restructurings in russia ukraine pakistan ecuador argentina and uruguay haircuts are computed as the percentage difference between the present values of old and new instruments discounted at the yield prevailing immediately after the exchange recovery value means value received in terms of outstanding principal we find average npv haircuts ranging from 13 uruguay external exchange to 73 2005 argentina exchange recovery values range from 30 to about 75 we also find within exchange variations in haircuts and recovery values depending on the bond tendered with a few exceptions domestic residents do not appear to have been treated systematically better or worse than foreign residents

holdouts in sovereign debt restructuring a theory of negotiation in a weak contractual environment negotiations between a country in default and its international creditors are modeled as a dynamic game in an environment of weak contractual enforcement the country cannot borrow internationally until it settles with all creditors delay arises in equilibrium as creditors engage in strategic hold up the model a rms the conventional wisdom that delay increases with more creditors and with the advent of vulture creditors contrary to conventional wisdom putting collective action clauses into bond contracts may increase delay via free riding on negotiation costs even while preventing strategic holdup and reducing total negotiation costs secondary debt markets consolidate debt with high and disperse debt with low creditor bargaining power whether secondary markets reduce or increase delay depends on the interaction between strategic holdup and debt

creditors losses versus debt relief results from a decade of sovereign debt crises this paper computes debt relief and investor losses associated with the major emerging market defaults and debt restructurings of the 1998 2005 period investor losses ranged from 13 to 75 based on comparing the market value of the new debt with the net present value of the old debt evaluated at the sovereign yield immediately following the debt exchange however the net present value of debt relief from a country perspective calculated using estimated country borrowing rates in normal times was typically lower in many cases countries could have lowered their remaining debt burdens for given investor losses by making their debt restructuring offers more front loaded the fact that they did not do so suggests that debtor countries did not expect to enjoy stable access to international credit markets even outside the typical exclusion period following a default jel f34

how did highly indebted poor countries become highly indebted reviewing two decades of debt relief how did highly indebted poor countries become highly indebted after two decades of debt relief efforts a set of theoretical models predict that countries with unchanged long run savings preferences will respond to debt relief with a mixture of asset decumulation and new borrowing a model also predicts that a high discount rate government will choose poor policies and impose its inter temporal preferences on the entire economy reviewing the experience of highly indebted poor countries compared with that of other developing countries the author finds direct and indirect evidence of asset decumulation and new borrowing associated with debt relief the ratio of the net present value of debt to exports rose strongly over 1979 97 despite the debt relief efforts average policies in highly indebted poor countries were generally worse than those in other developing countries nor were wars more likely in highly indebted poor countries over time there has been an important shift in financing for highly indebted poor countries away from private and bilateral nonconcessional sources to the international development association and other sources of multilateral concessional financing but this implicit form of debt relief also failed to reduce debt in net present value terms although debt relief is done in the name of the poor the poor are worse off if debt relief creates incentives to delay reforms needed for growth

preferences and willingness to pay for gm labeling policies abstract the use of genetically modified organisms in agriculture is currently the focus of intense public and political debate press articles provide evidence that us consumer concerns toward biotechnology are increasing in this paper we analyze whether consumers prefer mandatory or voluntary labeling schemes through contingent valuation additionally we calculate the premium that consumers are willing to pay in order to subsidize their favorite labeling alternative we find that the premium associated with mandatory labeling is lower than expected costs this indicates that in spite of the concerns surrounding biotechnology consumers remain fairly confident with the current food and drug administration policy which does not require mandatory labeling