spurious volatility in historical unemployment data this paper shows that the stabilization of the unemployment rate between the pre 1930 and post 1948 eras is an artifact of improvements in data collection procedures prewar methods are used to construct postwar unemployment data that are consistent with the historical data the constructed postwar series is nearly as volatile as the pre 1930 unemployment data the constructed postwar data are systematically more volatile than the actual postwar data because the cyclical behavior of the labor force and productivity are misspecified in the construction procedures the relationship between the actual and constructed postwar unemployment series is used to construct new historical data

price flexibility in developing countries evidence and implications using data for a sample of 50 developing countries the empirical investigation evaluates determinants and implications of asymmetric price flexibility price inflation is characterized by high flexibility to adjust towards full equilibrium further price inflation accelerates flexibly with unanticipated demand growth in both the upward and downward directions in most of the countries under investigation asymmetry indicates higher upward flexibility compared to downward flexibility in many countries aggregate uncertainty determines the degree of asymmetry such that price flexibility is higher with respect to expansionary demand shocks compared to contractionary shocks the higher the variability of aggregate demand across countries in contrast higher trend price inflation increases downward price flexibility across countries output variability decreases with both upward and downward price flexibility in the face of aggregate demand shocks a the views expressed in this article are those of the a

is increased nominal flexibility stabilizing some international evidence this paper studies the impact of the increased rigidity on macroeconomic fluctuations the author uses this evidence to test the validity of two major keynesian explanations the first is the conventional sticky wage sticky price explanation that suggests that the increased nominal rigidity ceteris paribus is destabilizing the second is a recently developed explanation that suggests that the increased flexibility is destabilizing the author s results are consistent with the conventional implications copyright 1991 by the london school of economics and political science

political regimes and the extractive capacity of governments taxation in democracies and dictatorships recent political and economic transformations in latin america africa asia and eastern europe have brought about a renewed interest in the incentives and capabilities of different types of political regimes to implement policies that are deemed necessary for economic development in particular policies aimed at increasing tax revenue one central question is whether democracies can collect as much in taxes as dictatorships this article addresses this question by examining whether regime type classified as democracy or dictatorship has a causal impact on a government s capacity to mobilize resources through taxation on the basis of data gathered for 108 countries for the period between 1970 and 1990 the article concludes that observed differences across countries regarding the level of taxes collected by the government are not due to the fact that some are under a democracy and others under a dictatorship concerns about the inability of democratic regimes to collect taxes are therefore unfounded

distributive implications of an aging society abstract the paper reviews recent research on the impact of an aging population on the distribution of income after briefly discussing the demographic conditions responsible for population aging a short account is given of demographic trends in the industrialized world in order to disentangle the many potential channels by which an aging society affects the dispersion of income several levels of aggregation are distinguished the paper differentiates between intra and intergenerational issues between direct and indirect demographic inequality effects and between the distribution of current and lifetime income it emphasizes the critical role of age related redistributive tax transfer systems like public pension schemes and health care systems sources of distributional policy conflicts are identified at both the cross section level and the lifetime level of income inequality the institutional design of intergenerational burden sharing individual disincentive reactions shifts in age income profiles related to cohort size and politico economic repercussions are shown to drive the relation between population aging and income distribution in distinct and partially opposite ways

government intervention as a bequest substitute abstract a subsequent generations model is used in order to characterize consumption allocation under the future generation s income uncertainty altruistic concerns towards future generations give rise to precautionary bequests which act as a hedge on risk it is shown that given a first order correlation between mean future income and the present generation s income government can provide a pareto improvement through a tax transfer policy with universal participation this policy acts as a substitute for precautionary bequests distributional aspects of government tax transfer policy are also discussed

is increased price inflexibility stabilizing this paper examines a basic question the link between the degree of price flexibility and the variability of output the two standard intermediate macroeconomic textbook models are the classical and the keynesian model in the keynesian model prices are assumed to be perfectly rigid and output adjusts on the other hand in the classical model prices are completely flexible and output is perfectly stable the two models suggest that as prices become more flexible output should become less variable now since mundell 1963 pointed it out it has been well known that the price level and the expected rate of change of the price level that is the expected inflation rate exert opposing forces on the level of output in a static keynesian model since inflation is an essentially dynamic phenomenon the static mundell effect prompts a natural consideration of the link between the degree of price flexibility and the variability of output in a dynamic context tobin 1975 presents a formal model where lower prices work to move the economy toward full employment but an expectation of falling prices raises the real interest rate and moves the economy away from full employment recently delong and summers 1986a 1986b driskill and sheffrin 1986 and king 1988 have rejuvenated interest in the question of whether increased price flexibility inflexibility will stabilize or destabilize output while driskill

public violence and state building in central america this article examines the role played by war and public violence more generally in the state building experiences of central america bellicist theory expects that wars provide a stimulus to extractive efforts thus enhancing the autonomy and capacity of the state over time though recent qualitative studies of south america find the opposite i expand the reach of bellicist theory to central america through the broader concept of public violence which captures the long term impact of external and internal rivals on the state the quantitative tests demonstrate that central american interstate and civil wars reduce the extractive ability of states consistent with the south american evidence interstate rivals stimulate extractive efforts among governments whereas intrastate rivals detract from those efforts incorporating the concept of public violence into bellicist theory thus helps to increase our understanding of central american state building

the eclipse of the state reflections on stateness in an era of globalization the economic logic of the current international economy does not predict the eclipse of the state economic globalization does restrict state power but transnational capital needs capable states as much or more than does domestically oriented business national success in the current global political economy has been associated not with minimal states but with states that are capable active and engaged pressure for eclipse flows from the conjunction between transnational economic forces and the political hegemony of an anglo american ideology that in j p nettl s words simply leaves no room for any valid notion of the state even this combination of economic and political pressure is unlikely to eclipse the state but it is likely to put public institutions on the defensive eclipsing any possibility of the embedded liberalism described by john ruggie a leaner meaner state is the likely outcome the possibility of a more progressive alternative outcome would depend in part on whether current zero sum visions of the relation between the state and civil society can be replaced by a more synergistic view

looking at the population problem through the prism of heterogeneity welfare and policy analyses upon introducing heterogeneity and dynamics into a model of the demand for children a problem of optimal population is defined and analyzed it is shown that from the perspective of social welfare better educated individuals produce too few children while less educated individuals produce too many children and all individuals invest too little in the education of their children the impact of several policy tools geared at addressing the population problem is investigated in particular how child allowances and other tax subsidy policies can be harnessed to enhance welfare and how and why early childhood education programs can mitigate the population problem

efficiency with endogenous population growth in this paper we generalize the notion of pareto e ciency to make it applicable to environments with endogenous populations two di erent e ciency concepts are proposed p e ciency and a e ciency the two concepts di er in how they treat people that are not born we show how these concepts relate to the notion of pareto e ciency when fertility is

the population problem theory and evidence this study is concerned with the relationships among population growth poverty and environmental degradation with particular focus on the situation in developing countries the author rejects the concept of a general theory of fertility behavior in favor of an interpretation of these relationships which might be applicable to certain situations in the poorest parts of the indian subcontinent and sub saharan africa such situations include unacceptable risks of maternal death for poor illiterate women and a condemnation to extreme poverty in conditions of the deterioration of local resources and of the environment the author concludes that population growth rates are too high in certain specific areas and that an appropriate policy reaction to such conditions would be to try to change the options that men and women face so that their reasoned choice would be to lower their fertility

endogenous fertility and the henry george theorem abstract models of endogenous demographic change deal with population size as an additional object of the welfare analysis in these models the overlapping generations olg model serves as the basic framework in club theory too population size is treated as an endogenous variable in local public goods lpg models the so called henry george theorem which requires local public expenditures to be financed by a 100 tax on aggregate land rent is known as a first order condition for club efficiency the present paper establishes and exploits an isomorphism between steady states of the olg model and allocations of the lpg model the paper revisits samuelson s fallacy concerning his goldenest golden rule and it explores institutional arrangements that sustain the optimum growth of population

variations in the response of real output to aggregate demand shocks a cross industry analysis using industry data this paper investigates the determinants of the response of real output to aggregate demand shocks across industries of the u s economy the purpose of this investigation is to verify the empirical validity of two competing explanations for this response a new classical explanation and a new keynesian explanation the author finds that the impact of aggregate demand shocks on industrial real output is negatively related to the mean inflation of industrial output price and positively related to the variability of the demand for this output in addition some industry specific factors are important in differentiating the cyclical behavior of real output across industries this evidence does not provide a clear support for any of the competing explanations considered in this paper the evidence however sheds some light on important factors that differentiate the response of real output to aggregate demand shocks across industries of the economy copyright 1991 by mit press

capital accumulation income distribution and endogenous fertility in an overlapping generations general equilibrium model abstract this paper studies the intertemporal relationships among population growth income distribution inter generational social mobility skill composition of the labor force and household income in an overlapping generations general equilibrium model that aggregates household decisions regarding fertility savings and investment in human capital of children it shows that as a consequence of endogenous fertility the equilibrium path attains steady state from the second generation income tax transfer child taxation and social security taxation policies that can be devised to affect these variables are also analyzed the model provides a structural explanation for the inverse household income child quantity and negative child quality quantity relationships that are observed in developing countries it also shows that group interests may hinder the emergence of perfect capital markets with private initiatives

the old age security hypothesis revisited abstract children s altruism toward parents is allowed in a two overlapping generations model with endogenous fertility parents raise children because when retired they expect gifts from their children who are essentially a capital good individuals behavior between generations is examined by analyzing a nash equilibrium which is then compared with a social planner s optimal allocation the pay as you go public pension program is viewed as the optimal gifts from the optimal allocation when the latter is implemented the effect on fertility of the introduction of a capital market is also analyzed the validity of the old age security hypothesis is shown to depend on the parameters of utility and cost functions

price flexibility and aggregate stability new evidence and implications i introduction is increased price flexibility stabilizing the importance of this question can be easily established by observing the number of recently published papers in which this question or a slight modification of it has appeared in their titles 1 while most economists would answer this question affirmatively a strand of macroeconomic thought that questions the wisdom of too much price flexibility has recently regained some attention 2 in the most widely discussed of this recent literature delong and summers 1986b question the wisdom of too much price flexibility their work was motivated by some of the ideas expressed by keynes 1936 and formally articulated by james tobin 1975 low prices work to move the economy to full employment but falling prices to the extent that they lead to expectations of deflation raise the real interest rate through the mundell effect and move the economy away from full employment in a version of taylor s 1979 wage setting model delong and summers show that instability is likely to occur if expectations of inflation adjust rapidly to actual inflation and the real interest rate effect is large this view presents a direct challenge to mainstream keynesian models of business cycles 3 according to these models sluggish wages and prices are generally the culprits of unemployment and business fluctuations an exogenous institutional increase in the degree of price inflexibility increases the size of quantities adjustment in response to aggregate demand shocks in the current period and over time the assumption of exogeneity is consistent with the view that wage and price rigidity are the result of an institutional structure that is relatively unresponsive to changes in the underlying economic conditions in gray and kandil 1991 we find this view unappealing considering recent efforts to rationalize nominal rigidities as the outcome of explicit optimization exercises 4 it is for this reason that we examine the relationship between price flexibility and output variability in a framework in which both are endogenously determined in the model we develop price rigidity is attributed to the length of contractual wage agreements an increase in contract length will occur if the costs of negotiating contracts rise or the amount of uncertainty impinging on the economy declines in the first case declines in wage and price flexibility will be accompanied by decreased stability of output in the latter case the opposite will occur the reduction in the size of stochastic disturbances impinging on the economic system has a direct stabilizing impact on real output concurrently the reduction in the degree of uncertainty increases agents incentives to write longer contracts the increased rigidity is destabilizing this destabilizing impact is dominated however by the direct stabilizing impact the implications of the alternative views can be contrasted in many respects in kandil 1991b i test the relation between measures of wage and price flexibility and the size of macroeconomic fluctuations across a group of ten major industrial countries the analysis of this paper extends this research in several directions first the analysis provides a formal illustration of the channels through which price flexibility may differentiate the real effects of specific shocks underlying aggregate demand and in turn aggregate variability the framework approximates the key relationships for the theoretical debate under consideration these relationships are replicated empirically to establish the validity of the hypotheses that differentiate the alternative views second the analysis provides a more formal attempt towards quantifying the structural shocks underlying aggregate demand these shocks are the driving forces of economic instability and in turn they are crucial to the debate on the stabilizing effects of price flexibility

the simple analytics of contraceptive social marketing abstract contraceptive social marketing csm programs have been advocated for the dissemination of contraceptives in developing countries this paper considers csm programs from a simple economic perspective it begins with a review of the major economic models of private fertility determinants and the associated private demand for contraceptives and then adds private contraceptive supply to obtain market equilibrium next inefficiencies due to negative externalities of added children and due to imperfect information and distributional concerns are considered finally this framework is utilized to point to lacunae in our knowledge of csm programs and their impact and to suggest some promising areas for research

pay as you go public pensions with endogenous fertility abstract veall s 1986 model of public pensions is generalized to allow for endogenous fertility we show that gifts to the old which can be viewed as social security contributions are always positive in the steady state an optimal stationary allocation is sustainable if savings are zero and fertility is exogenous however the optimal allocation is in general not sustainable in particular if a government enforces a social security plan setting the pension level at the optimal gifts and individuals optimize under the pension constraint the resulting sustainable outcome is in general different from either the optimal or nash outcome

the pay as you go pension system as fertility insurance and an enforcement device a paygo system may serve as insurance against not having children and as an enforcement device for ungrateful children who are unwilling to pay their parents a pension in fact the latter was bismarck s historic motive for introducing this system it is true that the paygo system reduces the investment in human capital but if it is run on a sufficiently small scale it may nevertheless bring about a welfare improvement if on the other hand the scale of the system is so large that parents bequeath some of their pensions to their children it is overdrawn and creates unnecessarily strong disincentives for human capital investment

wage rigidity and unemployment in oecd countries real wage rigidity is often blamed for causing unemployment in the wake of adverse real shocks like changes in productivity or the terms of trade likewise nominal wage rigidity is blamed for causing unemployment in the wake of adverse nominal shocks like falls in nominal demand 1 however there has been relatively little systematic discussion of how these concepts should be defined some authors e g sachs 1979 have defined real wage rigidity as the opposite of nominal wage rigidity with the us nominally rigid and europe really rigid 2 the rigidity of european real wages has then been used to explain why europe has experienced a greater increase in unemployment since 1973 than the us but in this discussion real wage rigidity has not been measured in a way which would in fact predict how much unemployment would result from a given real shock the discussion has focused on the degree of nominal inertia in the system but the unemployment cost of real shocks does not depend primarily on the degree of nominal inertia but rather on the effect of unemployment in the phillips curve

is increased price flexibility stabilizing this paper uses john taylor s model of overlapping contracts to show that increased wage and price flexibility can easily be destabilizing because of the mundell effect while lower prices increase output the expectation of falling prices decreases output simulations based on realistic parameter values suggest that increases in price flexibility might well increase the cyclical variability of output in the united states copyright 1986 by american economic association

price flexibility and aggregate stability some evidence contrasting developing and developed countries this paper explores the empirical validity of theoretical channels through which price flexibility may have caused differences in the stability of output in developing and developed countries the relation between these two variables suggests several principles where the size of stochastic disturbances that impinge on the economic system does not play an important role in determining the degree of price flexibility the increased flexibility is clearly stabilizing developing countries generally are characterized by larger stochastic disturbances and a higher flexibility of the price level than developed countries the larger variability of disturbances is indeed destabilizing further this destabilizing effect has domi nated the stabilizing effect that is associated with the increased flexibility of the price level in developing countries and this results in a clear positive correlation between price flexibility and output variability

technological change and the distribution of schooling evidence from green revolution india abstract in this paper we develop a two strata general equilibrium model of human capital acquisition with endogenous school construction that permits an assessment of the relative impacts of technological change and school availability on schooling investments in landless and landed households and illuminates how these choices interact through the adult and child labor markets the implications of the model are tested using a unique household level panel data set which constitutes a representative sample of rural india during the peak period of agricultural innovation associated with the green revolution 1968 1982 the empirical results indicate that the operation of the market for child labor worsens the distributional impact of agricultural productivity on school investment across landless and landed households as landless child labor is used to replace landed child labor lost due to increased child school attendance in landed households the results also suggest however that the allocation of school construction diminishes the adverse impact of technical change on the gap between landless and landed schooling investment

the asymmetric stabilizing effects of price flexibility historical evidence and implications the evidence of business cycles across a sample of industrial countries indicates asymmetry in the output and price adjustments to aggregate demand shocks in the pre and post war periods upward price flexibility is significant in moderating output fluctuations across countries in the pre and post war periods nonetheless the effect of upward price flexibility in accelerating trend price inflation is more evident across countries in the post war period compared to the pre war period the combined evidence is consistent with a steeper supply curve in the face of expansionary demand shocks that increases the stabilizing effect of upward price flexibility in contrast a flatter supply curve in the face of negative demand shocks has countered the stabilizing function of downward price flexibility which appears insignificant across countries in the pre and post war periods in addition a slower demand response to price change during recessions has further reinforced the contractionary effect on output d

is price flexibility stabilizing a broader perspective recent prewar postwar comparisons of united states macroeconomic performance have produced a number of stylized facts about differences in the cyclical behavior of real activity and prices across the two periods 1 among them are two that have attracted special attention the stability of real aggregate activity measured by the variance of its cyclical component has been greater in the postwar period than in the prewar period and wages and prices have been less flexible in the postwar period than in the prewar period 2 in the standard keynesian paradigms wage and price rigidity are the cause of output and employment fluctuations taken together then the observations of greater stability and reduced wage and price flexibility have puzzled some economists and prompted a reconsideration of the relationship between the flexibility of the price system and macroeconomic stability a series of recent papers3 reassesses the relationship between price flexibility and

economic consequences of an aging population pip europe and japan are experiencing the aging of their populations aging implies a restructuring of the economy political issues which arise in an aging society include 1 a voting majority for the interests of the elderly 2 a voting majority of females 3 the domination of the decision power in corporate and similar ruling bodies and 4 unemployment or a long wait for promotion for younger people economic issues of an aging society include 1 population aging often occurs under reduced rates of growth of per capita national income 2 the relative economic status of the elderly very much depends on the currently existing tax transfer systems and 3 the income of families whose head is over age 65 has generally been more unequally distributed than the income for younger families issues concerning the labor supply of the elderly include 1 the availability of pension income and health limitations strongly influence decisions to retire and 2 older workers become disheartened and choose early retirement when facing bad reemployment prospects in general population aging is likely to have its most substantive effect on the overall level of productivity in an economy where technical knowledge is changing rapidly and strong competition necessitates a high degree of adaptability of the labor force