the elasticity of prices with respect to monetary components some estimates for the uk 1948 1979 this paper reports estimates of the elasticity of various monetary components in the uk by assessing their ability to explain prices tests of the monetarist proposition that a unit change in a weighted monetary aggregate migh lead to a unit change in the price level in the long run and of the appropriateness of the current practice of constructing monetary aggregates by the simple summation of monetary components are also performed

the changing empirical definition of money some estimates from a model of the demand for money substitutes interest bearing checkable deposits are examined to test whether they should be included in measures of the u s money stock both divisia and traditional simple sum aggregates are constructed on the basis of tests for weak separability in a model of the demand for financial assets using nonparametric demand analysis we find that several groups of assets are compatible with aggregation theory we find empirical support for a narrow measure consisting of the components of current mia in tests based on a st louis equation and in terms of controllability a divisia aggregate performs better than the simple sum mia measure

the empirical relationship between money prices and income revisited this article investigates the relationship between sum divisia and monetary velocity money prices and income using the notion of granger 1969 causality this is achieved by evaluating empirically using dickey fuller unit root tests whether the macroeconomic time series under consideration are trend stationary or difference stationary and by conducting tests using three different ad hoc lag lengths 8 6 and 4 quarters as well as a statistically determined using akaike s 1969a b final prediction error criterion lag structure

social capital informal governance and post ipo firm performance a study of chinese entrepreneurial firms social capital can serve as informal governance in weak investor protection regimes using hand collected data on entrepreneurs political connections and firm ownership we construct several original measures of social capital and examine their effect on the performance of entrepreneurial firms in china after their initial public offerings political connections or a high percentage of external investors tend to enhance firm performance but intragroup related party transactions commonly lead to performance decline these forms of social capital have a strong influence on the performance of chinese firms whereas formal governance variables such as board size or board independence have little effect although social capital may serve as an informal governance mechanism and effectively substitute for formal governance mechanisms in an emerging market this role of social capital raises several ethical concerns notably the development of rent seeking and crony capitalism

dynamics of smallholder participation in horticultural export chains evidence from ecuador we study the dynamics of smallholder participation in export value chains focusing on the example of small scale broccoli producers in the highlands of ecuador combining cross sectional data from a household survey with 11 year longitudinal data on export market transactions we explain the hazards of dropping out of a high value export chain we apply a multispell cox duration model that allows us to consider multiple entries and exits from the supply chain we also provide evidence on the welfare impacts associated with participation the results suggest that small scale farmers exit from the export sector is accelerated by high transaction risks experienced in the past while we find no particular evidence for the exclusion of small scale farmers from the export sector we do find that poorer households and female headed households tend to drop out faster especially as long as the sector is still prospering finally when considering welfare effects we do not find evidence that participation translates into tangible benefits for broccoli farmers we discuss some measures that could help improve the long term sustainability of smallholder integration in high value chains

agricultural commercialization and nutrition revisited empirical evidence from three african countries the transition from subsistence to commercial agriculture is key for economic growth but what are the consequences for nutritional outcomes the evidence to date has been scant and inconclusive this study contributes to the debate by revisiting two prevailing wisdoms a market participation by african smallholders remains low and b the impact of commercialization on nutritional outcomes is generally positive using nationally representative data from three african countries the analysis reveals high levels of commercialization by even the poorest and smallest landholders with rates of market participation as high as 90 female farmers participate less but tend to sell larger shares of their production conditional on participation second we find little evidence of a positive relationship between commercialization and nutritional status as countries and international agencies prioritize the importance of nutrition sensitive agriculture better understanding of the transmission channels between crop choices and nutritional outcomes should remain a research priority

the information loss through aggregation of the uk monetary components abstract this paper calculates the information content of the uk monetary components in terms of their ability to predict movements in nominal income and assesses how much of this information is lost through restricting attention to subsets of these components and by sum aggregation

types and patterns an experimental east west german comparison of cooperation and solidarity abstract in a study of public good and solidarity experiments conducted in eastern and western germany we found in both games that eastern subjects behave in a significantly more selfish manner than do western subjects besides that we found that many qualitative results of both data sets are similar since our experiments were conducted in two parts of one nation we present an unusually well controlled cross cultural study by avoiding difficulties that usually arise in multinational settings we conclude that cooperation and solidarity behavior seem to depend strongly on different culture specific norms resulting from opposing economic and social histories in the two parts of germany

can socioeconomic heritage produce a lost generation with regard to entrepreneurship a considerable amount of literature deals with the influence of institutions on entrepreneurship but for all that little is known about the interplay between institutions and personal determinants of entrepreneurship in this paper the empirical evidence that older people in transition economies have low engagement in entrepreneurial activity is the starting point for analyzing how institutions moderate the relationship between individual characteristics and entrepreneurial choice the results show that the socioeconomic heritage of being exposed to socialism deters entrepreneurship an effect that is more pronounced for high impact entrepreneurship detailed analyses reveal that the effect is driven by devaluation of socialist work experience and the influence of socialism on mindset

recalling extra data a replication study of finding missing markets we re examine some of the strongest evidence supporting agricultural commercialisation a highly touted yet under researched development intervention our replication study re examines ashraf gine

fair trade organic coffee cooperatives migration and secondary schooling in southern mexico abstract we explore three trends in rural southern mexico fair trade coffee migration and conditional cash transfers that could explain the rapid rise in education from 1995 2005 using survey data from 845 coffee farming households in oaxaca and chiapas mexico results from a household fixed effects model show that household participation in a fair trade organic cooperative contributed to about a 0 7 year increase in schooling for girls us migration opportunities appear to have even stronger positive impacts on schooling for females although participation in fair trade organic cooperatives appears also to have increased male schooling increased migration opportunities have had an indeterminate effect for males

winners and losers in russia s economic transition the transition to a market economy has produced a substantial and rapid change in the wage structure in russia household surveys taken before and after the transition indicate that overall wage inequality nearly doubled from 1991 to 1994 and has reached a level higher than that in the united states returns to both measured skills education occupation and unmeasured skills within groups have increased considerably skill premiums across experience groups however have become more compressed and relative wages of older workers have declined in addition female wages have declined relative to male wages across all percentiles of the wage distribution copyright 1998 by american economic association

staunching emigration from east germany age and the determinants of migration following the unification of germany in 1990 eastern wages and unemployment both rose rapidly i demonstrate that rising wages reduced eastern emigration greatly while rising unemployment had little effect this reflects the behavior of the young who are very sensitive to source region wages and relatively insensitive to source unemployment i show that most of the effect of source unemployment comes from the contemporaneous effect on those laid off who are more likely to be older i find that compared to stayers young emigrants are much more skilled older emigrants are slightly more skilled and commuters are not more skilled as measured by education and pre move wages my conclusions are based on a comparison of results from aggregate inter state migration data and individual data from the eastern sample of the german socio economic panel for 1990 2000 jel j61 p23

regional institutional development political connections and entrepreneurial performance in china s transition economy while previous research emphasizes the role of political connections in facilitating entrepreneurial performance during china s early reform period 1978 1999 this study argues that regional institutions were increasingly conducive to entrepreneurial activities and thus also played a key role in china s entrepreneurial success during that period the purpose of this study is twofold first it aims to demonstrate how regional institutional development facilitated entrepreneurial performance in china second it aims to understand how formal institutional development among chinese regions affected the role of political connections using a two level hierarchical dataset on chinese private enterprises this study finds that not only legal protection of property rights but also the development of market systems mattered for entrepreneurial performance in addition it shows that political connections played a diminishing role during regional institutional development in china

an alternative monetary policy target for most of the period since the mid 1970s the federal reserve has expressed its monetary policy intentions by announcing the target growth rates of three principal monetary aggregates the simple sum m1 m2 and m3 however the sweeping changes and the deregulation in the financial industry have greatly affected the relevance of these traditional monetary aggregates the unusual behaviour of the simple sum monetary aggregates has forced the federal reserve to stop setting target range for m1 the measuring of monetary aggregates has become a controversial question this paper constructs the new benchmark divisia monetary indexes which reflect moneyness more accurately than the old divisia indexes i demonstrate that the historical trends of the divisia monetary indexes are sensitive to the brenchmark rates chosen in constructing these indexes in addition i compare the forecasting performance of the new benchmark divisia monetary indexes with the simple sum and the old divisia monetary indexes in the

the information content of monetary aggregates in the u k abstract this paper presents some results evaluating the information content of several monetary aggregates formed as simple sums or as divisia quantity indices the former tend to dominate the latter there is considerable support for the new broader official monetary aggregate psl2

risky monetary aggregates for the uk and us abstract we extend the scope of monetary aggregation beyond capital certain assets that make up central bank data sets and identify groups of assets that form monetary aggregates composed of both capital certain and risky capital uncertain assets we construct monetary aggregates for the us and uk using a superlative index and relax a key assumption of the consumption capital asset pricing model ccapm a one year planning horizon by using forecasted returns on risky assets our new risky monetary aggregates perform well in var tests we recommended exploring risky assets as providers of liquidity services in future research on this topic

planning for self employment at the beginning of a market economy evidence from individual data of east german workers we investigate the plans of individual workers concerning future self employment in the former german democratic republic shortly before the economic monetary and social union in june july 1990 our data base is the socio economic panel east we find that the desire to become an entrepreneur is basically determined by individual and household characteristics including income and asset indicators and not as much by the current job situation of the individual the work experience attained in the socialist economy seems to be irrelevant for the decision to become self employed in a market economy furthermore we find evidence of barriers to entry which may come from capital market constraints and institutional restrictions we also present an estimation of the determinants of the probability of being self employed in summer 1990 due to institutional restrictions we find only a few individual characteristics to be important

good bye lenin or not the effect of communism on people s preferences preferences for redistribution as well as the generosities of welfare states differ significantly across countries in this paper we test whether there exists a feedback process of the economic regime on individual preferences we exploit the experiment of german separation and reunification to establish exogeneity of the economic system from 1945 to 1990 east germans lived under a communist regime with heavy state intervention and extensive redistribution we find that after german reunification east germans are more in favor of redistribution and state intervention than west germans even after controlling for economic incentives this effect is especially strong for older cohorts who lived under communism for a longer time period we further find that east germans preferences converge towards those of west germans we calculate that it will take one to two generations for preferences to converge completely

term structure forecasts of inflation this paper investigates the information in the term structure of interest rates about future inflation using u k data the author finds that at horizons of up to four years the term structure has predictive value for inflation outcomes the term structure could thus provide a guide to the setting of monetary policy copyright 1992 by royal economic society

new concepts of aggregated money the federal reserve board s recent redefinition of its monetary aggregates followed three years of intensive board staff research on monetary aggregation while the new aggregates ultimately were selected along conventional lines some of the staff s research was oriented towards more fundamental changes in monetary aggregation methods this paper reviews such proposals which are based upon the rigorous application of index number and aggregation theory and of principal components analysis in the construction of economic monetary aggregates the usefulness of aggregation and index number theory in acquiring price indices is widely known the theory of the true cost of living index is an application of aggregation theory examples of applied index number theory include the commerce department s implicit price deflator which is a paasche index and the labor department s consumer price index which is a laspeyres index somewhat less well known is the fact that dual to the theory of economic price aggregates and indices is a theory of economic quantity aggregates and indices an example of a highly reputable quantity index is the divisia quantity index the monetary aggregates traditionally are thought to measure the supplied quantity of an economic good called money whenever monetary aggregates are used in the context of economic theory rather than as simple accounting identities the theory of economic quantity aggregation is specifically applicable however published monetary aggregates in all countries have always been computed as simple sums but as fisher 1922 p 29 observed in the conclusion to his classic treatise on index number theory the simple arithmetic average produces one of the very worst of index numbers and if this book has no other effect than to lead to the total abandonment of the simple arithmetic type of index number it will have served a useful purpose with an example of the simple sum index fisher 1922 p 363 found that the bias alone reaches 36 percent although index number theory has not yet found its way into the monetary theory literature all of the literature on index number theory and aggregation theory for the past half century supports the result long ago deduced by fisher 1922 p 361 that the simple arithmetic index should not be used the views expressed herein are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the board of governors of the federal reserve system this research was partially supported by national science foundation grant soc 76 84459 we are deeply indebted to the conference session s discussant of this paper w erwin diewert for volunteering to cede his allocated journal space to us so that the paper could take its current extended form federal reserve board washington d c

the aggregation error in divisia monetary aggregates some findings for the u k 1963 1980 abstract in this paper we examine the potential aggregation error or information loss in the construction of divisia indices of monetary aggregates for the uk all the indices produce no information loss but in detail our findings differ from those for the us

the search for a stable money demand function a survey of the post 1973 literature phe question of whether the demnand function for money is stable is one of the most important recurring issues in the theory and application of macroeconomic policy what is being sought in a stable demand function is a set of necessary conditions for money to exert a predictable influence on the economy so that the central bank s control of the money supply can be a useful instrument of economic policy as such the notion of a stable demand function appears to involve three key elements e g john t boorman 1976 p 317 and david e w laidler 1977 pp 34 35 first the demand for money relation should be highly predictable in a statistical sense as measured by the usual goodness of fit statistics precision of estimated coefficients and presumably its ability to forecast accurately out of sample second a stable demand function for money has relatively few arguments a relationship that requires knowledge about a large number of variables in order to pin it down is in effect not predictable finally the variables that appear as arguments in the function should represent significant links to spending and economic activity in the real sector in sum a stable demand function for money means that the quantity of money is predictably related to a small set of key variables linking money to the real sector of the economy the importance of a stable money demand function for monetary policy can be illustrated with the standard is lm model in which interest rates and gnp are the endogenous variables in this context a stable demand function for money translates into a well defined relationship between money interest rates and gnp

individual preferences for political redistribution what drives people s support of governmental reduction of income inequality we employ data from a large international survey in order to evaluate the explanatory power of three competing forces referred to as the homo oeconomicus effect the public values effect and the social rivalry effect the empirical analysis reveals that at the aggregate level all three effects play a significant role in shaping individual preferences for political redistribution attitudes of citizens in formerly socialist countries turn out to differ from those of western citizens in a systematic way 2002 elsevier science b v all rights reserved

agro export production and peasant land access examining the dynamic between adoption and accumulation abstract new technologies and export opportunities have often contributed to dualistic agrarian structure and intense social conflict in latin american a switching regression model developed in this paper explicitly links export adoption and land accumulation patterns controlling for pre existing differentiation processes applied to survey data gathered from peasant households in guatemala the model provides evidence of equitable structural change induced by a recent export boom in vegetable crops however the optimism of these results is tempered by consideration of the unfavorable longer term market dynamics confronting small scale producers

household income food availability and commercial crop production by smallholder farmers in the western highlands of guatemala crop commercialization among smallholder farmers in developing countries has often been signaled as being detrimental to the economic conditions and food security of the farmers households high variability in market prices of farm products and farm inputs poses significant risks to household income as do inefficient marketing institutions and inadequate rural infrastructure lack of adequate access to credit prohibits smallholder farmers from assuming such risks commercialized farm households become more dependent on market conditions for adequate availability of food as cash crops displace food crops and household consumption of own produced staple foods is reduced thus the household s vulnerability to food insecurity tends to be increased labor inputs by household members are often higher in cash than food crops which may increase the household s food needs 2 changes in food intake patterns have been associated with a change toward cash crop production which often results in diminished nutritional quality of the diet 3 the income and food effects of shifts from subsistence to commer

is lack of funds the main obstacle to growth ebrd s experience with small and medium sized businesses in central and eastern europe abstract small and medium sized enterprises smes potentially constitute the most dynamic firms in an emerging economy they are the ones most likely to move into areas of comparative advantage and high value added though they often face economic institutional and legal obstacles obstacles include limited access to working capital and long term credit legal and regulatory restrictions inadequate infrastructure high transaction costs and limited managerial and technical expertise despite the presence of multiple and often interrelated constraints however the widespread belief on which policies to support smes are based is that the lack of finance constitutes the main obstacle to the growth of smes enterprise survey work is the tool generally used to deepen our understanding of constraints affecting smes formation and growth the european bank for reconstruction and development ebrd is no exception in this respect during its early years it drew substantially on a set of enterprise surveys conducted by the world bank between 1991 and 1993 in hungary the czech and slovak federal republic csfr poland and russia investigating the obstacles faced by smes as the volume and geographical spread of its operations increased the ebrd felt the need to design and run its own surveys effectively addressing specific issues encountered in the context of its increasing lending and investment activity in central and eastern europe cee the findings of this analysis confirmed the belief that credit constraints constitute one of the main obstacles to growth of smes and encouraged the ebrd to tailor its financing instruments to the stage of transition of the country in question and the ability of the local financial system to assume key responsibilities this paper analyzes the way in which the ebrd strives to correct this capital market failure in the region in which it operates the fundamental principles on which ebrd policy is based are a preference for reaching the smes via local financial intermediaries a commercial approach to the provision of finance and finally a focus on development of the local financial system as a whole it is still too early to draw conclusions on ebrd activity in the field of smes financing based on other types of indicators than data on volume of signed commitments a large part of the loans is still in the grace period therefore investments are in an early phase and operation performance evaluation reports on this type of operations are still too few aggregate data on volume of ebrd financing through financial intermediaries paint an encouraging picture a 250 increase in the volume of such operations between 1994 and 1997 a nine fold increase in the number of subprojects between 1995 and 1997 and an ever widening geographical spread of activities and decreasing size of subprojects indicate that the experience of the ebrd in financing through financial intermediaries is on the whole positive financing provided to intermediaries is not necessarily always intended nor guaranteed to reach smes it is however guaranteed to create the appropriate financing channels which are necessary to ease the smes liquidity constraint this paper discusses the shortcomings of the financial system in the cee countries it outlines the ebrd policy to support smes and the various instruments employed so far and presents selected case studies to throw light on how good project design can help overcome difficult environments and lower the perception of risk connected to indigenous smes a summary of the findings of the survey work conducted by the ebrd in the region is also presented

assisting the transition from workfare to work a randomized experiment randomly sampled workfare participants in a welfare dependent region of argentina were given a voucher that entitled an employer to a sizable wage subsidy a second sample also received the option of skill training while a third sample formed the control group the authors analyze the effects of this scheme on participants employment and income using double difference and instrumental variables methods to deal with potential experimental biases including selective compliance with the randomized assignment the authors find that compared with the control group voucher recipients had a significantly higher probability of employment though their current incomes were no higher the impact was largely confined to women and younger workers labor supply effects appear to have been important however training had no significant impact the experiment was cost effective in reducing the government s welfare spending since take up of the subsidy by employers was low

entrepreneurship and the intergenerational transmission of values there is mounting empirical evidence that there is intergenerational transmission of parental preferences for entrepreneurship however much of the work on this topic is not explicit about the role of values in this transmission process furthermore nearly all studies neglect potential heterogeneity of values among entrepreneurial parents this paper contributes to the literature by making use of a natural experiment that allows 1 identifying a group of entrepreneurial parents who have a distinct priority of challenging existing conditions mastery and 2 detecting whether this value orientation is transmitted comparing german entrepreneurs two decades after reunification reveals that the children of self employed parents who encountered a great deal of resistance in the socialist german democratic republic due to their self employment are much more likely to give mastery as the reason for running their own venture compared to entrepreneurs whose parents did not have to overcome this sort of challenge

wage effects of the move toward free markets in east germany this analysis of data from the german socio economic panel soep for the years 1989 91 illuminates important changes in the structure of wages that were occurring in the former east germany during its transition toward a capitalist economy and changes that are probably occurring in other countries in eastern europe as well under the new capitalist wage regime workers realized significant returns to schooling gained under socialism but no significant returns to work experience because work experience is the largest element in the human capital of older workers their wages fell under the new system and the results suggest that their wages will continue to fall relative to those of younger workers generous transfer payments from western germany may prevent an absolute decline in living standards of these workers older workers in other eastern countries however will have no such social assistance and their living standards will probably fall

economic performance through time prize lecture to the memory of alfred nobel december 9 1993 this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

trade standards and poverty evidence from senegal summary in the debate on trade and poverty it is argued that standards act as trade barriers and cause marginalization of the poor this paper quantifies income and poverty effects of high standards trade and integrates labor market effects by using company and household survey data from the vegetable export chain in senegal we find that exports grew sharply despite increasing standards contributing importantly to rural incomes and poverty reduction tightening standards induced a shift from smallholder contract farming to integrated estate production altering the mechanism through which poor households benefit through labor markets instead of product markets

global value chains large scale farming and poverty long term effects in senegal this paper presents panel data evidence on the impact of expansion of global value chains and large scale export oriented farms in developing countries over almost a decade we estimate the income effects of wage employment on large scale farms in the horticultural export sector in senegal using data from two survey rounds covering a seven years period of rapid expansion of the sector we estimate average income effects as well as heterogeneous income effects using fixed effects and quantile fixed effects regressions we find that poverty and inequality reduced much faster in the research area than elsewhere in senegal employment in the horticultural export sector is associated with higher household income and the income effect is strongest for the poorest households expansion of the horticultural export sector in senegal has been particularly pro poor through creating employment that is accessible and creates substantial income gains for the poorest half of the rural population these pro poor employment effects contrast with insights in the literature on increased inequality from rural wage employment

promoting entrepreneurship in eastern europe the past decade has seen a revival of entrepreneurship in the modern industrial economies characterized by a wave of enterprise restructuring and of new developments in business and technology in this paper we argue that market transitions of the post socialist economies of eastern europe cannot be successful without similar entrepreneurial restructuring to address the massive structural distortions that still plague the post reform economies the governments of the region must promote entrepreneurship through policies that 1 make use of all possible sources of entrepreneurship including in particular the former state and social sectors and 2 establish a macroeconomic environment and property rights framework conducive to entrepreneurship a successful promotion strategy will need to operate on several fronts by 1 redirecting entrepreneurial activities into legal productive activities 2 increasing the supply and effectiveness of entrepreneurs 3 developing markets for complementary inputs and 4 increasing the demand for entrepreneurship an unsuccessful approach we argue will be one that regards the pre reform small private sector as the only source of entrepreneurship and as the only arena for its productive use

heterogeneity of commercialization gains in the rural economy farmers in low income rural economies often fail to switch to cash crops from staple production despite the positive income effects of commercialization expected by policy makers the literature suggests that market failures prevent households from cash crop adoption but remains inconclusive regarding farmers motives and the effects of commercialization this article contributes to the debate by offering an original approach to the analysis of commercialization outcomes and farmers decisions it consists of applying a model with essential heterogeneity and a semiparametric estimation technique to analyzing harvest value returns to cash cropping using malawian data we show considerable heterogeneity in harvest value returns to cash cropping both within and between groups of farmers choosing different crop portfolios importantly the results imply rational choices based on comparative advantage considerations of farming households farmers self select into the activity where they expect higher gains and adopt cash crops when facing weaker market barriers

welfare effects of vegetable commercialization evidence from smallholder producers in kenya we investigate whether smallholder horticultural commercialization is able to as often stipulated reduce poverty in developing countries with the help of panel household survey data from kenya we find evidence for a positive association between vegetable commercialization and household welfare even when controlling for unobserved heterogeneity across households interestingly the effect differs depending on which market vegetables are being produced for commercialization through the export market is consistently positively associated with income but not wealth while there is some limited evidence for commercialization through the domestic market channel being positively related to welfare measured by asset holdings and income depending on the specification

initial human and financial capital as predictors of new venture performance abstract this research seeks to predict the performance of new ventures based on factors that can be observed at the time of start up indicators of initial human and financial capital are considered to determine how they bear upon the probability of three possible performance outcomes 1 failure 2 marginal survival or 3 high growth four categories of initial human and financial capital are examined general human capital represented here by the entrepreneur s education gender and race may reflect the extent to which the entrepreneur has had the opportunity to develop relevant skills and contacts management know how embodied in the entrepreneur or available through advisors or partners reflects management specific skills and knowledge without regard to the kind of business industry specific know how reflects specific experience in similar businesses financial capital is one of the most visible resources it can create a buffer against random shocks and allow the pursuit of more capital intensive strategies which are better protected from imitation the study utilizes a longitudinal study of 1053 new ventures representative of all industry sectors and geographical regions the research departs from most previous studies in considering different measures of performance marginal survival and growth and in considering explicitly whether the factors contributing to marginal survival differ from those contributing to high growth it was found that measures of general human capital influenced both survival and growth except for gender with women owned ventures being less likely to grow but just as likely to survive management know how variables had more limited impact having parents who had owned a business contributed to marginal survival but not to growth number of partners contributed to growth but not to survival management level prior employment in non profit organizations or not having been in the labor force and the use of professional advisors did not have significant effects industry specific know how contributed to both survival and growth amount of initial financial capital also contributed to both the usefulness of the model is enhanced by the fact that the resource variables considered are relatively easy to assess and all can be considered at the time of start up although some of the human capital variables cannot easily be changed the benefits or risks associated with each can be assessed in some cases potential problems can be identified so that plans can be modified to improve prospects overall it appears that using a model based upon the initial human and financial capital of the venture it is possible to predict the performance of new ventures with some degree of confidence

sustainability in the diffusion of innovations smallholder nontraditional agro exports in guatemala i nontraditional agro exports in guatemala since the late 1970s guatemala like a number of other developing countries has experienced an extraordinarily rapid growth in the production of nontraditional agro exports ntxs the share of agricultural exports coming from ntxs grew from less than 6 in 1980 to more than 22 in 1992 rationales behind the promotion of ntxs by governments and development agencies include seeking foreign exchange earnings alternatives to depressed market conditions for traditional export crops and rural poverty reduction as part of the packages mandated by structural adjustment and trade liberalization programs many national governments including guatemala s introduced policies in favor of ntx producers such as export facilitation procedures subsidy programs and fiscal reforms trade agreements such as the generalized system of preferences and the caribbean basin initiative created additional incentives for ntx exporters in the guatemalan context private organizations and trade associations such as the association of exporters of nontraditional products played a catalytic role in promoting ntxs in the 1980s as a potential new approach to rural development international donors have invested heavily in the promotion of ntxs among smallholders one such effort that received considerable attention is the agricultural cooperative cuatro pinos that was founded in 1979 with financial assistance from a swiss development agency cooperative membership grew tenfold in the following 10 years reaching more than 1 900 members in the late 1980s and operating in ten different villages pre ntx agriculture in the region was dominated by the milpa sys

linking smallholder farmers to markets on extensive and intensive margins evidence from nicaragua abstract access to modern commercialization channels is key for smallholder farmers to move away from subsistence farming and overcome poverty however achieving that goal is challenging for smallholders given their lack of appropriate managerial practices production technology and infrastructure this paper examines the association between receiving trainings in two distinct entrepreneurial practices one direct at the individual and farmer association level and another indirect at the community level and commercialization in non local markets at the extensive and intensive margins we exploit a panel dataset of bean producers in nicaragua that participated in an ngo program implemented between 2007 and 2012 we find opposite results for the two market linkage activities especially on the intensive margin or volume of sales while reciving direct training on entrepreneurial practices ep is positively associated with commercialization training on municipality engagement me activities is negatively associated these correlation patterns are mainly observed among entrant farmers as opposed to those already participating in commercial markets prior to the program implementation we also find varying results for me activities by plot size and leadership position additional estimations show that training activities that are positively correlated with bean commercialization are not necessarily correlated with the commercialization of other crops and vice versa

entrepreneurial intentions in the third age the impact of perceived age norms this article investigates the impact of perceived age norms on the formation of entrepreneurial intentions in the third age age norms refer to those social norms that determine whether establishing and running a business are considered appropriate behavior for a mature individual an empirical analysis of finnish individuals finds that norms perceived as permissive of enterprising activity in the third age exert a significant positive influence on entrepreneurial intentions in this segment even when controlling for the general level of entrepreneurship in the municipalities this influence is partially mediated by whether the individual has a positive attitude toward entrepreneurship by how the individual perceives their own ability to start and run a business by the extent of support from their family and friends they perceive and by the importance of that support to them thus if policy aims to increase enterprising activity in the third age segment the portfolio of instruments should include measures that address people s general awareness of third age entrepreneurship as a viable positive and attractive late career option

level playing fields and laissez faire postliberal development strategy in inegalitarian agrarian economies focusing on the rural sector in latin america this paper explores the microeconomic linkages between distribution and growth which drive the possible reproduction of rural poverty over time the result of this exploration is a neostructuralist perspective which argues that actually existing laissez faire agrarian economies do not present a level playing field and that low wealth farms face disadvantages which tend to reproduce or even deepen sectoral inequality the paper then tries to identify the sorts of public policy and collective action which might modify the nature of growth and distribution in post liberalization agrarian market economy

can neoclassical economics underpin the reform of centrally planned economies te here s a curious symmetry between the arguments propounded over the last century in advocacy of socialism and the present popular discussion of the reform of centrally planned economies in those old discussions the vision of socialism was utopian which was contrasted with the dickensian realities of capitalism now the disasters of central planning are contrasted with the benefits flowing from perfectly functioning markets in the conventional wisdom of reform the vision of markets is utopian and that of central planning concentrates on the awful reality what is largely missing in the conventional wisdom is a satisfactory attempt to come to grips with the central question that should be answered in formulating reform plans how does one explain the differences in performance of market capitalist and centrally planned economies of course capitalism has outperformed central planning the developed west is therefore an obvious source of ideas for reforms but the institutions of capitalism come in many varieties and cannot be put in place instantaneously there are many alternative reform paths depending upon the importance attributed to each of these institutions thus there remains the problem of tracing the source of the superiority of capitalist economies to specific characteristics this point was made clear to me on hearing a vietnamese official justify single party rule by noting the economic success of taiwan and singapore reformers need a filter that interprets the experience of capitalist and socialist systems this is exactly where economic theory plays a vital role

the attitudinal legacy of communist labor relations this study of workers attitudes compares data from international social survey programme issp surveys for former communist countries in europe with issp data for western countries over the perio

new indices of money supply and the flexible laurent demand system the article begins by surveying the existing results on the new divisia monetary aggregates charts display the differences in behavior between the divisia aggregates and the federal reserve s official simple sum monetary aggregates the article then compares system wide fit for the simple sum and divisia monetary aggregates when used as data in the joint estimation of a system of demand equations the demand system is derived from a new laurent expansion approximation to the reciprocal indirect utility function the laurent expansion provides a better behaved remainder term than that of the more commonly used taylor series the results favor the divisia aggregates

bank float mail float and the definition of money this paper argues that the true magnitude of voluntary holdings of money balances is actuallysmaller than the magnitude of conventional m1 preliminary calculations suggest that the discrepancy is quite substantial these findings force us to doubt the overall validity of traditional money demand studies that employ m1 data for empirical testing

analysis of adoption and impacts of improved maize varieties in eastern zambia summary this paper analyzes the adoption and welfare impacts of improved maize varieties in eastern zambia using data obtained from a sample of over 800 farm households using both propensity score matching and endogenous switching regression models the paper shows that adoption of improved maize leads to significant gains in crop incomes consumption expenditure and food security results further show that improved maize varieties have significant poverty reducing impacts in eastern zambia the paper concludes with implications for policies to promote adoption and impacts of modern varieties in zambia

personality characteristics of self employed an empirical study this paper is concerned with the personality characteristics of self employed most existing studies on personality characteristics of entrepreneurs concentrate on factors like age educational profile and motivations to become self employed there is a lack of significant empirical findings to claim that entrepreneurs are psychologically different from the general population based on a large sample of 14 846 individuals we compare self employed with the general population and with wage and salary earners we empirically show that entrepreneurs differ from the general population and wage and salary earners in a number of characteristics entrepreneurs are more individually oriented than the rest of the population individual responsibility and effort are distinguishing characteristics when asked about important qualities that children can be encouraged to learn at home entrepreneurs answer that it is important to teach children an ethic of working hard except for the latter characteristic the same holds if we compare self employed with wage and salary earners

the distinctiveness of entrepreneurship in transition economies this paper is concerned with the distinctiveness of entrepreneurship and small business development in countries that are at different stages of transformation to market based economies following a discussion of the potential relevance of selected conceptualisations of entrepreneurship to transition conditions the authors present original empirical data referring to the characteristics of entrepreneurs and their businesses from countries at different stages of market reform distinctive features of entrepreneurial behaviour identified reflect the unstable and hostile nature of the external environment and the scarcity of key resources particularly capital in an unstable and weakly structured environment informal networks often play a key role in helping entrepreneurs to mobilise resources win orders and cope with the constraints imposed by highly bureaucratic structures and often unfriendly officials moreover the social context inherited from the former socialist period appears to affect both the attitudes and behaviour of entrepreneurs and the attitudes of society at large towards entrepreneurship

spillovers from high value agriculture for exports on land use in developing countries evidence from madagascar high value agriculture for exports is increasingly important in developing countries in a case study of contract farming for exports of vegetables from madagascar strong spillover effects of these trade opportunities on land use are found to exist using a matched plot sampling design the productivity of rice the main domestically consumed staple is shown to be two thirds higher on fields that were contracted during the off season for the production of vegetables this increase in yields is linked to an increase of soil fertility due to the application of fertilizer and compost which farmers did not use prior to the contracts although agricultural output goes up significantly labor productivity stays the same suggesting that there is greater labor absorption on existing land and the diffusion of this type of technology at a larger scale throughout madagascar would be expected to substantially decrease incentives to deforest by increasing wages and to boost productivity of existing lands relative to newly deforested ones

non traditional crops traditional constraints long term welfare impacts of export crop adoption among guatemalan smallholders this study documents the long term welfare effects of household non traditional agricultural export ntx adoption the analysis uses a unique panel dataset which spans the period 1985 2005 and employs difference in differences estimation to investigate the long term impact of non traditional agricultural export adoption on changes in household consumption status and asset position in the central highlands of guatemala given the heterogeneity in adoption patterns the analysis differentiates the impact estimates based on a classification of households that takes into account the timing and duration of non traditional agricultural export adoption the results show that while on average welfare levels have improved for all households irrespective of adoption status and duration the extent of improvement has varied across groups long term adopters exhibit the smallest increase in the lapse of two decades in spite of some early gains conversely early adopters who withdrew from non traditional agricultural export production after reaping the benefits of the boom period of the 1980s are found to have fared better and shown greater improvements in durable asset position and housing conditions than any other category