you ve got mail a randomized field experiment on tax evasion we report from a large scale randomized field experiment conducted on a unique sample of more than 15 000 taxpayers in norway who were likely to have misreported their foreign income by randomly m

international consumption risk sharing this paper formally examines the implications of international consumption risk sharing for a panel of industrialized countries we theoretically derive the international consumption insurance proposition in a simple setup and show how to modify it in more complicated models we analyze the implications of the theory for pairs of countries and find that aggregate domestic consumption is almost completely insured against idiosyncratic real demographic fiscal and monetary shocks over short cycles but that it covaries with these variables over medium and long cycles the cross equation restrictions imposed by the theory are rejected the policy implications are discussed

administrative reform as credible commitment the impact of autonomy on revenue authority performance in latin america abstract during the past decade diverse developing countries have introduced radical reforms in their collection of taxes in more than 15 countries traditional tax departments have been granted the status of semi autonomous revenue authorities aras this paper investigates the design and impact of aras in latin america arguing that politicians create aras in order to signal a credible commitment to taxpayers that tax administration will be more effective fair and competent using survey data from corporate taxpayers and tax professionals in bolivia mexico peru and venezuela the paper presents econometric analyses and performance indicators that support the hypothesis that there is a link between perceptions of credibility performance and agency autonomy

occupational choice and the process of development this paper models economic development as a process of institutional transformation by focusing on the interplay between agents occupational decisions and the distribution of wealth because of capital market imperfections poor agents choose working for a wage over self employment and wealthy agents become entrepreneurs who monitor workers only with sufficient inequality however will there be employment contracts otherwise there is either subsistence or self employment thus in static equilibrium the occupational structure depends on distribution since the latter is itself endogenous we demonstrate the robustness of this result by extending the model dynamically and studying examples in which initial wealth distributions have long run effects in one case the economy develops either widespread cottage industry self employment or factory production employment contracts depending on the initial distribution in the other example it develops into prosperity or stagnation

household level spillover effects from biofuels evidence from castor in ethiopia the indirect effects of biofuels are mostly considered negative in this paper we argue that there may be a positive indirect effect of biofuels on food security and poverty using micro level evidence and a matched plot pair design through which we control for plot and farmer characteristics we show that the introduction of castor production for biofuel in a poor country as ethiopia can significantly improve food productivity of rural households who produce raw material for biofuel production this spillover seems particularly linked to enhanced access to inputs and technical assistance which were provided as part of biofuel feedstock production contracts our results thus document another mechanism through which biofuels may influence smallholders food security a mechanism that did not receive attention so far

the curious case of corporate tax avoidance is it socially irresponsible in contrast to many aspects of the social responsibility of business csr scholarship has been largely silent on the issue of the payment of corporate tax this is curious because such tax payments are often considered a fundamental and easily measured example of a company s citizenship behavior however because the payment of corporate tax can often be legally avoided this activity represents a boundary condition for csr if the law and csr suggest that a company should pay its fair share of tax yet many successful companies actively avoid this social obligation should they be considered socially irresponsible this paper explores the issue of tax avoidance and the implications it has for any credible definition and measure of csr it also highlights an aspect of corporate practice that is deliberately hidden from public view

regional capital mobility in china economic reform with limited financial integration abstract this paper assesses the changes in the regional capital mobility in china during the period of economic reform in 1978 2008 by employing a panel time varying coefficient tvp model this approach is much more suitable to model china s evolution in the regional capital mobility than a standard structural break model as china s reforms took place gradually and were often implemented over several stages using the tvp model we find that 1 china s provincial capital mobility demonstrated a moderate improvement over the sample period but worsened temporarily between 1994 and 1997 this is probably due to the government s effort to combat inflation which reduced the investment and transfers to regions 2 regions with the most developed and least developed provinces experienced higher degree of capital mobility improvement than those in the middle

distinguishing between equilibrium and integration in spatial price analysis this article introduces a new spatial price analysis methodology based on maximum likelihood estimation of a mixture distribution model incorporating price transfer cost and trade flow data this method permits differentiation between market integration and competitive market equilibrium and derivation of intuitive measures of intermarket tradability competitive market equilibrium perfect integration segmented equilibrium and segmented disequilibrium one can also use these estimates to derive semiparametric measures of time varying regime probabilities to track changing market conditions an application to trade in soybean meal among pacific rim economies demonstrates the usefulness of the method copyright 2002 oxford university press

taking the high road compliance with commuter tax allowances and the role of evasion spillovers abstract this paper provides evidence of evasion in the context of a widely used commuter tax allowance and explores evasion spillovers as a determinant of the individual compliance decision for this purpose we exploit discontinuities in the commuter allowance scheme and employ a research design resting on a large panel of individual tax returns we find that around 30 of all allowance claims are overstated and consistent with deliberate tax evasion we observe sharp reactions of taxpayers to thresholds where the allowance discretely jumps to a higher amount further we use variation in job changes to uncover spillover effects from the work environment on the individual compliance decision these effects appear to be asymmetric job changers moving to companies with a higher fraction of cheaters increase their cheating in contrast movers to companies with a lower fraction of cheaters tend not to alter their reporting behavior we provide suggestive evidence that the spillover has more to do with an information environment but can ultimately not reject other behavioral explanations such as asymmetric persistence of norms

sustainable development and corporate performance a study based on the dow jones sustainability index the goal of this paper is to examine whether business performance is affected by the adoption of practices included under the term corporate social responsibility csr to achieve this goal we analyse the relation between csr and certain accounting indicators and examine whether there exist significant differences in performance indicators between european firms that have adopted csr and others that have not the effects of compliance with the requirements of csr were determined on the basis of firms included in the dow jones sustainability index djsi and specific accounting indicators were applied to measure performance for the purposes of this study we selected one group of firms belonging to the djsi and another comprised of firms quoted on the dow jones global index djgi but not on the djsi the sample was made up of two groups of 55 firms studied for the period 1998 2004 empirical analysis supports the conclusion that differences in performance exist between firms that belong to the djsi and to the djgi and that these differences are related to csr practices we find that a short term negative impact on performance is produced

financial intermediation and endogenous growth an endogenous growth model with multiple assets is developed agents who face random future liquidity needs accumulate capital and a liquid but unproductive asset the effects of introducing financial intermediation into this environment are considered conditions are provided under which the introduction of intermediaries shifts the composition of savings toward capital causing intermediation to be growth promoting in addition intermediaries generally reduce socially unnecessary capital liquidation again tending to promote growth

examining crop price effects on production decision and resource allocation an ex ante approach this article examines the output price effects on the us crop production employing an ex ante approach to the differential systems of input demand and output supply the estimation results of the

do ethics matter tax compliance and morality in this article we argue that puzzle of tax compliance can be explained at least in part by recognizing the typically neglected role of ethics in individual behavior that is individuals do not always behave as the selfish rational self interested individuals portrayed in the standard neoclassical paradigm but rather are often motivated by many other factors that have as their main foundation some aspects of ethics we argue that it is not possible to understand fully an individual s compliance decisions without considering in some form these ethical dimensions specifically we argue here that there is much direct and indirect evidence that ethics differ across individuals and that these differences matter in significant ways for their compliance decisions we then put this in the larger context of the inability of the standard neoclassical paradigm to explain compliance of at least some individuals and we suggest several possible avenues by which theory can be expanded to incorporate ethics we conclude by arguing that a full house of compliance strategies is needed to combat tax evasion strategies that include the traditional enforcement paradigm suggested by and consistent with neoclassical theory a less traditional service paradigm that recognizes the important role of a kinder and gentler tax administration in encouraging compliance and importantly a new trust paradigm that is built on the foundation of ethics in which the tax administration must recognize that it can erode the ethics of taxpayers by its own decisions

regional capital mobility in china 1978 2006 we examine cross region capital mobility in china and track how the degree of mobility has changed over time the effects of fiscal and redistributive activities of different levels of government in china on private capital mobility are taken into account our results indicate that there was a significant improvement in capital mobility over time in china particularly for private capital in the more developed regions the central and provincial governments via their taxation spending and transfers loosen the relationship between private saving and investment and appear to promote capital mobility particularly for less developed regions there are considerable differences between more and less developed regions in terms of the degree of capital market integration and the improvement in capital mobility over time the results have important policy implications on global re balancing as well as regional development gap and risk sharing within china

duty fear and tax compliance the heuristic basis of citizenship behavior theory the costs imposed by income tax and other citizenship duties provide powerful incentives to free ride yet the likelihood of getting caught the primary self interested deterrent to free riding is unlikely to be known with much accuracy by most citizens thus the duty heuristic provides not only a direct motivation to comply but also influences behavior through cognitive processes that bias self interested beliefs about the advantages of free riding hypothesis citizens beliefs about their duty to obey laws of the state bias their information processing and judgements about the fear of getting caught and punished for disobedience so citizens reporting greater commitment to obey tax laws systematically overestimate the expected penalty for noncompliance methods regression analysis of survey and tax return data for 445 taxpayers results subjective risk of getting caught is more closely related to duty than to objective risk factors objective audit probabilities affect only taxpayers with greater temptation to cheat but duty influences tempted taxpayers as much as ordinary taxpayers

types and patterns an experimental east west german comparison of cooperation and solidarity abstract in a study of public good and solidarity experiments conducted in eastern and western germany we found in both games that eastern subjects behave in a significantly more selfish manner than do western subjects besides that we found that many qualitative results of both data sets are similar since our experiments were conducted in two parts of one nation we present an unusually well controlled cross cultural study by avoiding difficulties that usually arise in multinational settings we conclude that cooperation and solidarity behavior seem to depend strongly on different culture specific norms resulting from opposing economic and social histories in the two parts of germany

tax evasion and heuristics a research note abstract the paper examines the heuristics which taxpayers use in making tax evasion decisions the following propositions are tested in an experiment using students first the taxpaper s own level of evasion will be positively related to what he perceives as the levels of evasion by others second taxpayers who have been audited are more likely to assess the probability of audit as higher and therefore decrease their levels of evasion the experimental results fail to support the first proposition but do support the second suggesting the presence of an availability effect

flexing muscle corporate political expenditures as signals to the bureaucracy when corporations and their employees spend money in the political arena to what extent are they purchasing special treatment complaints about the deleterious effects of corporate money in politics are ubiquitous in american political discourse however in order to pinpoint the place of these expenditures in american democracy and to appreciate fully the consequences of various reform proposals itiscriticaltoidentifytheprecisemechanism through which any preferential treatment might occur in this spirit scholars have suggested that corporations make political expenditures because they hope to influence government behavior through either explicit quid pro quos with legislators for constituency service or favorable votes baron 1989 grossman and helpman 1994 2001 improved access to legislators hall and wayman 1990 langbein 1986 or enhancement of the electoral prospects of sympathetic incumbents pooleandromer1985 empiricalevidenceverifying a definitive relationship between expenditures and specific policy change unfortunately has proven elusive in a recent review essay ansolabehere de figueiredo and snyder 2003 116 conclude contributions explain a miniscule fraction of the variation in voting behavior in the u s congress they suggest thatcontributionsarebetterthoughtofasconsumption goods that fulfill a desire to participate in politics than as investment in a political marketplace

computing multi period information constrained optima this paper presents a detailed theoretical derivation and justification for methods used to compute solutions to a multi period including infinite period continuum agent unobservedeffort economy actual solutions are displayed illustrating cross sectional variability in consumption and labour effort in the population at a point in time and variability for a typical individual over time the optimal tradeoff between insurance and incentives is explored and the issue of excess variability is addressed by consideration of the analogue full information economy and various restricted contracting regimes

is corporate social responsibility performance associated with tax avoidance this study examines whether corporate social responsibility performance is associated with corporate tax avoidance employing a matched sample of 434 firm year observations i e 217 tax avoidant and 217 non tax avoidant firm year observations from the kinder lydenberg and domini database over the period 2003 2009 our logit regression results show that the higher the level of csr performance of a firm the lower the likelihood of tax avoidance our results indicate that more socially responsible firms are likely to display less tax avoidance finally the results from our additional analysis show that the csr categories community relations and diversity represent particularly important elements of csr performance that reduce tax avoidance

from the lab to the field a review of tax experiments tax experiments have been gaining momentum in recent years although this literature dates back several decades with new developments in methods and data availability tax experiments have gradually moved away from lab settings and towards the field this movement from the lab to the field has happened against the background of the credibility revolution in applied economics which has seen more rigorous methods applied to policy relevant questions and of the availability to researchers of administrative data from tax returns these developments have allowed significant advances in the experimental literature on tax compliance this paper reviews this literature giving particular attention to field experiments using administrative data but putting them in the broader context of the compliance literature a particular effort is made to take a global perspective in a literature that is only recently seeing the emergence of evidence from africa latin america and asia

consumption fluctuations and welfare evidence from china summary this paper examines inter provincial consumption risk sharing and intertemporal consumption smoothing across chinese provinces before and after the 1979 economic reform our results indicate that the degree of consumption risk sharing among chinese provinces is lower than that within the united states and across the national boundaries of oecd countries on the other hand the level of consumption smoothing among chinese provinces is higher than that across oecd or european union countries but lower than that in the united states moreover our results show that consumption risk sharing and smoothing in china have deteriorated since the 1979 economic reform finally we show that eliminating consumption fluctuations yields substantial welfare gains which suggests that stabilization policies are desirable for china

corporate social responsibility a strategic advantage or a strategic necessity for many firms a focus on corporate social responsibility csr is an indication to stakeholders that the firm is concerned about social and environmental issues however these same firms may engage in csr activities with the expectation that these activities will increase their bottom line a relevant and highly researched question is the relationship between csr and performance the findings are inconclusive indicating a need to consider other explanations several authors have drawn on the resource based view of the firm to suggest that csr can give a firm a competitive advantage in this article we draw on and further develop this research by focusing on four outcomes of csr initiatives strategic disadvantage strategic necessity temporary strategic advantage and strategic advantage we exemplify this with two cases the article contributes to the literature by developing a set of possible outcomes by recognizing several issues which result in strategic necessity and by suggesting movement between the outcomes

credit markets in northern nigeria credit as insurance in a rural economy this article addresses the issues of imcomplete markets and imperfect information in the context of credit markets in rural northern nigeria in much recent theoretical literature the problems of moral hazard and adverse selection are assumed to be decisive for the organization of agrarian institutions in contrast it is found that in the four villages surveyed credit transactions take advantage of the free flow of information within rural communities information asymmetries between borrower and lender are unimportant and their institutional consequences the use of collateral and interlinked contracts are absent credit transactions play a direct role in pooling risk between households through the use of contracts in which the repayment owed by the borrower depends on the realization of random production shocks by both the borrower and the lender

the effect of friendly persuasion and gender on tax comliance behavior friendly persuasion in contrast to deterrent measures like tax audits and penalties on underreported taxes is a positive and possibly a cost effective method of increasing taxpayer compliance however prior studies have failed to show that friendly persuasion has a significant impact on compliance blumenthal et al 2001 mcgraw and scholz 1991 in our study in contrast to prior studies we examine the impact of generating and reading reasons supporting compliance as friendly persuasion on individuals income reporting behavior as well as control for gender effects specifically we predict an interaction effect between friendly persuasion and gender on compliance behavior we carried out a 2 friendly persuasion and control 2 men and women full factorial experiment where participants earned 30 by completing two questionnaires participants in the friendly persuasion group were required first to generate and second to read a list of reasons why they should comply fully afterwards participants in both groups were asked to report the income they earned and pay tax on the reported income the results show a significant main effect for gender as well as a significant interaction effect between gender and friendly persuasion on income reported women in the friendly persuasion group reported significantly higher income compared to men in that group other comparisons were not significant policy implications for increasing taxpayers ethics and compliance are highlighted

a review of the ecological and socioeconomic effects of biofuel and energy policy recommendations abstract many countries have attached great emphasis on biofuel because it is universally acknowledged renewable and sustainable however there remain doubts regarding biofuel s renewability cleanliness and ecological friendliness in addition its impacts on income employment and food security have been widely discussed therefore the effect of developing biofuel as an important method of resolving the energy crisis and climate change is questioned based on the rocketing concern on the multiple effects of biofuel this paper provides a comprehensive and updated review of the literature on biofuel s ecological effects and socioeconomic effects the literature included in this paper is selected english language papers being published since 2004 we find that existing studies have not arrived at a consensus regarding the ecological or the socioeconomic effects of biofuel there remain uncertainty and doubts toward biofuel s renewability and cleanliness biofuel s impacts on water and biodiversity are also questioned although biofuel is widely regarded to have positive impacts on income and employment many studies prove that biofuel influences food security negatively besides biofuel s economic cost is likely to be the barrier to its promotion because of the uncertainty of biofuel s impacts this study recommends cautious attitude toward biofuel development especially for those countries where biofuel development would be inappropriate and suggests that policy makers engage in demand side management instead of unsustainable supply side management

channels of interstate risk sharing united states 1963 1990 we develop a framework for quantifying the amount of risk sharing among states in the united states and construct data that allow us to decompose the cross sectional variance in gross state product into several components which we refer to as levels of smoothing we find that 39 percent of shocks to gross state product are smoothed by capital markets 13 percent are smoothed by the federal government and 23 percent are smoothed by credit markets the remaining 25 percent are not smoothed we also decompose the federal government smoothing into subcategories taxes transfers and grants to states

do you need a receipt exploring consumer participation in consumption tax evasion as an ethical dilemma the paper focuses on the consumer side of consumption tax evasion cte a subcategory of the shadow economy the ethical dimensions of tax evasion have been effectively captured by the existent literature on tax morale yet it fails to address the role consumers can play in cte further there is a shortage of tax morale studies that explore ethical decision making as a process composed of multiple steps and determinants to bridge these gaps we turned to the consumer ethics literature and jones issue contingent model of ethical decision making we developed the conceptual model of consumer ethical decision making for cte by incorporating four key elements from the issue contingent model i e moral recognition moral judgement moral intention and moral intensity while personal moral philosophies were introduced as an antecedent to the consumer ethical decision making process the study was conducted on a sample of consumers from slovenia where cte is a widespread phenomenon the findings confirm that consumers recognition of cte as a moral issue is influenced by their moral philosophy and perceptions regarding the magnitude of cte s consequences their visibility probability and temporal immediacy these perceptions also play an important role in determining consumers moral judgements and intentions regarding cte moreover through the process of moral recognition and moral judgement consumers form intentions to participate in or avoid cte the study holds important implications for public policy makers who are trying to reduce the tax gap in times of economic instability and fiscal crisis

dynamics and heterogeneity of inter and intranational risk sharing this study extends the empirical model of incomplete risk sharing developed by crucini 1999 by allowing unequal income pooling and explores the implications of using an alternative measure for aggregate risk based on samples from canadian provinces g 7 and oecd countries spanning the years 1961 2008 we show that the empirical procedure used by crucini tends to overstate the average degree of risk sharing and understate the dispersion of risk sharing when compared to our unequal income pooling model the empirical results from our unequal pooling model show that i the degree and dispersion of risk sharing across canadian provinces g 7 countries and oecd countries remain stable over time ii the degree of risk sharing across canadian provinces is higher than that across the g 7 and oecd countries and iii the degree of risk sharing seems positively related to equity and trade diversification

individual morality and reputation costs as deterrents to tax evasion abstract empirical evidence suggests some taxpayers never evade evasion increases with the tax rate and evasion decisions are interdependent these findings are not easily explained by the existing theory which models evasion as an independently made amoral gamble this paper uses nonpecuniary costs of evasion to reconcile theory with evidence once individuals are assumed to differ by an honesty characteristic taxpayers dichotomise into groups the more honest of which responds to a tax change as the evidence suggests a further extension is to introduce an endogenous reputation cost this suggests a positive relationship between the number of evaders and the tax rate

biofuels and food security micro evidence from ethiopia abstract there is considerable controversy about the impact of biofuels on food security in developing countries a major concern is that biofuels reduce food security by increasing food prices in this paper we use survey evidence to assess the impact of castor production on poor and food insecure rural households in ethiopia about 1 3 of poor farmers have allocated on average 15 of their land to the production of castor beans under contract in biofuel supply chains castor production significantly improves their food security they have fewer months without food and the amount of food they consume increases castor cultivation is beneficial for participating households food security in several ways by generating cash income from castor contracts they can store food for the lean season castor beans preserve well on the field which allows sales when farmers are in need of cash or food spillover effects of castor contracts increases the productivity of food crops increased food crop productivity offsets the amount of land used for castor so that the total local food supply is not affected

gender implications of biofuels expansion in africa the case of mozambique summary we use a gendered dynamic cge model to assess the implications of biofuels expansion in a low income land abundant setting mozambique is chosen as a representative case we compare scenarios with different gender employment intensities in producing jatropha feedstock for biodiesel under all scenarios biofuels investments accelerate gdp growth and reduce poverty however a stronger trade off between biofuels and food availability emerges when female labor is used intensively as women are drawn away from food production a skills shortage among female workers also limits poverty reduction policy simulations indicate that only modest improvements in women s education and food crop yields are needed to address food security concerns and ensure broader based benefits from biofuels investments

consumption risk sharing in china this paper empirically examines the degree of regional consumption risk sharing in china it finds that less risk sharing is taking place across chinese provinces than across us states and canadian provinces although its extent across the latter is somewhat higher than across the national boundaries of industrial countries specifically about half of the fitted annual variation in provincial consumption growth is common to all chinese provinces compared with more than two thirds less than one third in the case of us states and canadian provinces g 7 countries my estimates reveal that chinese households would be willing to pay dearly to insure their consumption against idiosyncratic shocks

ambiguity about audit probability tax compliance and taxpayer welfare we show that an increase in uncertainty about the probability of being audited ambiguity increases tax compliance for ambiguity averse taxpayers but reduces compliance for ambiguity lovers because experimental evidence reveals considerable heterogeneity with respect to ambiguity preferences we conclude that fostering uncertainty about the probability of being audited may not be an effective policy for increasing taxpayer compliance moreover because the tax authority can neither categorize nor screen taxpayers on the basis of their preferences for ambiguity it is not likely to be either a useful or a desirable instrument for increasing taxpayer welfare jel h26 d81

decision frames opportunity and tax evasion abstract this paper examines the role of decision frames and opportunity in tax evasion in an experiment framed as a business simulation student subjects made a series of decisions two propositions were tested first that having to pay extra tax after insufficient tax has been withheld will lead to more evasion than receiving a refund after too much has been withheld second that greater opportunity to evade taxes will lead to increased evasion both propositions are supported

a fairness approach to income tax evasion abstract the tax that a taxpayer wishes to evade is determined on the basis of his perception of the fairness of his fiscal treatment with respect to both governmental supply of public goods and the perceived behaviour of other taxpayers the coercive powers of the state and the taxpayer s attitude toward risk determine the extent to which this desired level is undertaken in practice this approach is able to produce implications for the relationship between public expenditure tax rates and tax evasion which are more consistent with empirical evidence than the results of the conventional portfolio choice approach

biofuels and the poor global impact pathways of biofuels on agricultural markets this study seeks to assess the future impacts of biofuel production on regional agricultural and related sectors over the next decade with a specific focus on the vulnerable regions of developing nations using a modification of the gtap modeling platform to account for the global interactions of regional biofuel and food markets the analysis shows that biofuel production levels depend on the assumption about the future price of energy and the nature of the substitutability between biofuels and petroleum based transport fuels low energy prices reduce the demand for biofuels and thus require greater government support to meet the desired production targets at the other extreme when prices are high and there is scope for substituting biofuels for petroleum based fuels the volume of biofuels produced will exceed the mandates even when biofuels are being mainly produced in developed countries our results indicate that there are impact pathways that extend far beyond the borders of the us brazil and the eu prices of feedstock and non feedstock commodities rise in developing countries there is also a rise in value added from the agricultural sector a gain that is enjoyed by the owners of land and labor including unskilled hence to the extent that agriculture is a key sector in getting growth started and addressing poverty needs the emergence of biofuels can in this way at least be a positive force

consumption insurance an evaluation of risk bearing systems in low income economies the hypothesis of full risk sharing can be taken to data from low income countries and evaluate formal and informal financial systems in many contexts idiosyncratic risks are high so credit insurance arrangements could be beneficial statistical tests reveal that households in southern india take advantage of these possibilities villages in cote d ivoire and countries in thailand do not do as well the paper includes an empirical description of the devices used to smooth consumption and a theoretical discussion of private information and incentives on ideal operating systems the full information and mechanism design frameworks provide benchmarks for policy analysis

income tax evasion an intersectoral analysis abstract this paper develops an intersectoral model of income tax evasion with general equilibrium effects key elements of the model are imperfectly substitutable outputs from the compliant and evading sectors and workers with heterogeneous evasion costs the model allows for biased public expenditures a wide range of behavioural responses and both legitimate and criminal activities evading tax as well as tax avoidance activities qualitative and quantitative assessments are undertaken for the effects of tax rate changes on evasion activity relative output prices and real tax revenues this approach offers useful findings for taxation policy and is amenable to further analytical extensions

intranational risk sharing and its determinants abstract we develop a model of risk sharing in which agents can pool their consumption risks in both national and local markets and then smooth the remaining consumption fluctuations with credit markets estimating the model with a unique dataset on chinese cities we find that the participation rate in risk sharing is low but upon entering the market agents tend to pool risk in the national market rather than the local market the welfare gain from reaching the perfect consumption risk sharing at the national market could be as large as 4 of the perpetual deterministic consumption flow however conditional on the estimated degree of risk sharing participation the welfare gain from pooling all income risks at the national market is only 0 1 empirical analysis on the determinants of city risk sharing reveals that the degree of risk sharing depends on initial economic development and share of gdp contributed by tertiary industry

welfare gains from international risksharing abstract this paper uses consumption data to compute yet unexploited welfare gains that can be achieved through risksharing among twenty oecd countries there is both aggregate national consumption risk and nondiversifiable individual specific risk countries engage in an optimal risksharing arrangement to pool risk associated with the aggregate consumption endowment streams welfare gains are associated with reduced consumption variability and with the international pricing of the consumption streams of individual countries the paper considers the standard vnm time additive preferences as well as nonexpected utility and habit formation preferences large unexploited gains are found under all sets of preferences leading to an international risksharing puzzle

impact of personal and situational factors on taxpayer compliance an experimental analysis this study used a laboratory experiment with monetary incentives to test the impact of three personal factors moral reasoning value orientation and risk preference and three situational factors the presence absence of audits tax inequity and peer reporting behavior while controlling for the impact of other demographic characteristics on tax compliance analysis of covariance ancova reveals that all the main effects analyzed are statistically significant and robustly influence tax compliance behavior these results highlight the importance of obtaining a proper understanding of these factors for developing effective policies for increasing the level of compliance and indicate that standard enforcement polices based on punishment alone should be supplemented by an information system that would acquaint tax payers with the compliance level of other tax payers reinforce the concept of fairness of the tax system among tax payers and develop programs that enhance and appeal to a taxpayer s moral conscience and reinforce social cohesion

what can explain the apparent lack of international consumption risk sharing recent research in international business cycles finds that international consumption comovements do not match the risk sharing predictions of standard complete markets models in this paper i ask whether two different types of explanations can help explain this result 1 nonseparabilities between tradables and nontradable leisure or goods and 2 the effects of capital market restrictions on consumption risk sharing i find that risk sharing cannot be resolved by either explanation alone however when i allow for both nonseparabilities and certain market restrictions risk sharing among unrestricted countries cannot be rejected this evidence suggests that a combination of these two effects may be necessary to explain consumption risk sharing across countries

biofuels and food security the biofuel market created the linkage between energy and agricultural market prices biofuel policies and energy prices set the floor price of feedstock prices and the energy prices and the upper limit of the biofuel blend ratio can decide the ceiling of feedstock prices on the other hand biofuels can also transmit price volatility from energy to agricultural markets despite not always being the cause of price volatility of feedstock and related agricultural commodity prices brazilian bioethanol can play a crucial role in stabilizing the sugar market one of the most crucial problems for increasing biofuel production is the competition with food and food related demand and agricultural resources the definition of competition between biofuels and food can be divided into two dimensions the competition with food and food related demand and the competition with the agricultural resources the feedstock of the second generation biofuels can compete with food and food related demand and agricultural resources the development of second generation biofuels may not solve the problems associated with the competition between biofuels and food however the competition between biofuels and food doesn t always have a negative impact on food security the competition and food security impact on different dimensions biofuels can contribute to agricultural and rural development and can have a positive impact on a national and sub national level but they can also have a negative impact on household levels in the same country international action is required to monitor whether biofuels can have a negative impact on food security and nutrition security at national sub national and household levels biofuels should be compatible with and must not threaten food security the fao in collaboration with other international organizations will have the responsibility of monitoring the impact of biofuels on food security and proposing policy recommendations to individual countries based on the results of the monitoring

honesty and evasion in the tax compliance game conventional models of tax compliance emphasize that taxpayers make strategic tax reports underreporting income to the extent that this behavior is functionally rewarded in contrast to this view considerable empirical evidence suggests that many taxpayers are inherently honest reporting truthfully regardless of the incentive to cheat in this article we build a game theoretic model of tax compliance that includes both honest and potentially dishonest taxpayers we show that including honest taxpayers significantly alters the model leading to much improved empirical predictions and somewhat different and novel policy implications

financial development growth and the distribution of income a paradigm is presented in which both the extent of financial intermediation and the rate of economic growth are endogenously determined financial intermediation promotes growth because it allows a higher rate of return to be earned on capital and growth in turn provides the means to implement costly financial structures thus financial intermediation and economic growth are inextricably linked in accord with the goldsmith mckinnon shaw view on economic development the model also generates a development cycle reminiscent of the kuznet hypothesis in particular in the transition from a primitive slow growing economy to a developed fast growing one a nation passes through a stage in which the distribution of wealth across the rich and poor widens

consequences of unintended food policies food price dynamics subject to the israeli palestinian conflict abstract israel s imposition of military security measures in the palestinian territories as a consequence of the long lasting violent conflict between them has negative economic effects on all parties concerned one crucial outcome is the limited ability to carry out trade which brings about welfare losses conflict induced policies such as security measures can result in sizable unintended externalities that shape the markets of and the trade in food we assess the dynamics of daily wholesale prices of food produced in israel and the west bank that is traded between them and is therefore subject to restrictions on movement to do so we suggest a regime switching cointegration model which is estimated using a novel extension of the johansen estimation method we find that the two major wholesale markets of the two regions are integrated with regard to these main trading products deviations from price equilibria are quickly adjusted the model suggests that movement restrictions temporarily cut off markets from each other implications of conflict induced closures for welfare depend on the direction of trade and are harming both palestinian and israeli consumers

the impact of public transfer expenditures on tax evasion an experimental approach abstract this paper outlines the methodology and results of an experiment undertaken to analyze primarily the impact of public sector transfer payments on tax evasion behaviour apart from the use of transfer payments further explanatory variables used were income expected auditing probability and perceived tax burden the influence of these variables on both the propensity to evade taxes and the extent of taxes evaded are investigated in an attempt to add more realism some innovative changes to the experimental approach were incorporated

audit probabilities and tax evasion in a business simulation abstract this paper examines the role of individual differences and audit probabilities in tax evasion and argues that more elaborate experimental studies of evasion are needed

tax evasion inflation and stabilization abstract this paper focuses on the public resort to tax evasion in developing countries as an adjustment tactic during economic downturn we show using a theoretical model of intertemporal consumption that tax compliance declines when current income declines expectations about future income improve or inflation rises we then apply the model empirically to the cases of argentina brazil and chile three countries which have long experience with tax evasion and inflation over the last 40 years and find confirmation

optimal cartel equilibria with imperfect monitoring abstract there exist optimal symmetric equilibria in the green porter model 4 8 having an elementary intertemporal structure such an equilibrium is described entirely by two subsets of price space and two quantities the only production levels used by firms in any contingency the central technique employed in the analysis is the reduction of the repeated game to a family of static games

cheating ourselves the economics of tax evasion no government can announce a tax system and then rely on taxpayers sense of duty to remit what is owed some dutiful people will undoubtedly pay what they owe but many others will not over time the ranks of the dutiful will shrink as they see how they are being taken advantage of by the others thus paying taxes must be made a legal responsibility of citizens with penalties attendant on noncompliance but even in the face of those penalties substantial tax evasion exists and always has the history of taxation is replete with episodes of evasion often notable for their inventiveness during the third century many wealthy romans buried their jewelry or stocks of gold coin to evade the luxury tax and homeowners in eighteenth century england temporarily bricked up their fireplaces to escape notice of the hearth tax collector webber and wildavsky 1986 p 141 this essay reviews what is known about the magnitude nature and determinants of tax evasion with an emphasis on the u s income tax alm 1999 andreoni erard and feinstein 1998 and slemrod and yitzhaki 2002 offer more comprehensive recent reviews of the literature it then places this information into a conceptual and policy context

full insurance in the presence of aggregate uncertainty this paper tests implications of full consumption insurance the object is to determine how much mileage can be obtained from a model with complete markets with such features as private information or liquidity constraints omitted the implication exploited is that individual consumption responds to aggregate risk but not to idiosyncratic risk the test involves regressing the change in household consumption onto the change in aggregate consumption and other right hand side variables such as the change in household income and change in employment status all variables other than the change in aggregate consumption are predicted to be insignificant in explaining the change in household consumption with observations on consumption and income for 10 695 households from the consumer expenditure survey the results are mixed the results for one specification exponential utility are mostly consistent with full consumption insurance the results for the other specification power utility are not

consumer reactions to corporate tax strategies effects on corporate reputation and purchasing behavior on the basis of an interdisciplinary approach linking taxation marketing and corporate social responsibility the present research investigates the effects of media reports on aggressive and responsible corporate tax strategies ctss on corporate success with consumers by means of two laboratory experiments n 150 360 we analyze the effects of the ctss on corporate reputation consumer purchase intention and the consumer s willingness to pay our results suggest that aggressive ctss diminish corporate success with consumers whereas responsible ctss enhance it nevertheless consumers are not willing to pay a price premium for products sold by responsible tax planning companies but rather punish aggressive tax planning companies through a slightly lower willingness to pay finally consumers tax morale and their attitude toward tax avoidance are important moderating variables given the growing level of media interest in taxation our findings are crucial for assessing consumer related non tax costs and the benefits of different ctss

incentives insurance and the variability of consumption and leisure abstract this paper considers to what extent dynamic incentive models such as green 1987 phelan and townsend 1991 and atkeson and lucas 1992 can quantitatively explain why some individuals consume or work more than others and why a typical individual s consumption or leisure varies over time a simple repeated agency model is shown to be able to better match several population moments concerning life cycle labor supply and consumption variation than the same model without incentive constraints on the other hand i show for the standard stylized models of repeated agency incentive induced variability is an insufficient explanation of the variability in the data

walking inside the potential tax evader s mind tax morale does matter we conduct an empirical study on the determinants of the psychological costs of tax evasion also known as tax morale as a preliminary step we build a model of tax evasion including non monetary considerations show the relationship between tax compliance and tax morale in the empirical analysis of tax morale we find using a binomial logit model that the justification of tax evasion can be explained by the presence of grievance in absolute terms those who feel that taxes are too high those who feel that public funds are wasted and those who accept underground economic activities and grievances in relative terms the suspected level of others tax evasion the sense of duty and the level of solidarity are also relevant factors but to a lesser extent

household choices in equilibrium this paper is an empirical investigation of equilibrium restrictions on household consumption and male labor supply it exploits a simple factor structure rationalized by two assumptions that household allocations are pareto optimal and that the labor market is competitive the paper estimates household preferences and tests how well this parsimonious factor structure represents panel data on married couples and time series data on asset returns most of the estimates are roughly comparable to those found in previous work no evidence against the simple factor representation is found and the intertemporal capital asset pricing model is not rejected copyright 1990 by the econometric society

a simple test of consumption insurance are consumers effectively insured against idiosyncratic shocks to income or wealth either by formal institutions such as charities private insurance and government programs or by informal mechanisms such as gifts and loans from relatives friends and neighbors under full insurance consumption growth should be cross sectionally independent of idiosyncratic variables that are exogenous to consumers this proposition is tested by cross sectional regressions of consumption growth on a variety of exogenous variables full insurance is rejected for long illness and involuntary job loss but not for spells of unemployment loss of work due to strike and an involuntary move

social capital and the dynamics of trust in government it is well understood that trust in government responds to the performance of the president congress and the economy despite improved government performance however trust has never returned to the levels witnessed in the 1950s and 1960s social capital may be the force that has kept trust low if so we need to assess the relative contributions of both government performance and social capital at the macro level using macrolevel data the analysis here is designed to capture the variation over time in both social capital and government performance and let them compete to explain the macro variation in trust the empirical results demonstrate that both government performance and social capital matter but that social capital appears to be the force which accounts for the decline in trust over the last 40 years

the individual political economy of federal tax policy public policies are the product of conflicting demands within society these demands are both collective in nature and the product of individual interests individuals must balance these conflicting interests in developing their policy preferences we estimate the role of collective and individual interests in preference formation using tax policy as a substantive example survey data are used to estimate the model for evaluations of several tax policies debated during consideration of the 1978 tax revenue act our analysis indicates that individual preferences for tax policies are greatly affected by attitudes towards collective issues particularly redistribution attitudes and by self interest considerations we also find that aggregate variables measuring individuals local economies have significant effects on symbolic and selfinterest preferences

contrasting rational and psychological analyses of political choice we contrast the rational theory of choice in the form of expected utility theory with descriptive psychological analysis in the form of prospect theory using problems involving the choice between political candidates and public referendum issues the results showed that the assumptions underlying the classical theory of risky choice are systematically violated in the manner predicted by prospect theory in particular our respondents exhibited risk aversion in the domain of gains risk seeking in the domain of losses and a greater sensitivity to losses than to gains this is consistent with the advantage of the incumbent under normal conditions and the potential advantage of the challenger in bad times the results further show how a shift in the reference point could lead to reversals of preferences in the evaluation of political and economic options contrary to the assumption of invariance finally we contrast the normative and descriptive analyses of uncertainty in choice and address the rationality of voting

the economics of taxpayer compliance there is now a great deal of evidence suggesting that tax evasion is fairly widespread throughout european and north american economies estimates of the so called black economy indicate that perhaps 10 per cent of economic activity in these countries has been driven underground in the attempt to evade payment of tax for a detailed survey see pyle 1989 chs 2 4

consumption smoothing and housing capital gains evidence from australia canada and new zealand using regional level panel data of three developed countries comprising australia canada and new zealand the study investigates the response of consumption smoothing to housing capital gains t

integrating bioenergy into computable general equilibrium models a survey in the past years biofuels have received increased attention since they were believed to contribute to rural development energy security and to fight global warming it became clear though that bioenergy cannot be evaluated independently of the rest of the economy and that national and international feedback effects are important computable general equilibrium cge models have been widely employed in order to study the effects of international climate policies the main characteristic of these models is their encompassing scope global models cover the whole world economy disaggregated into regions and countries as well as diverse sectors of economic activity such a modelling framework unveils direct and indirect feedback effects of certain policies or shocks across sectors and countries cge models are thus well suited for the study of bioenergy biofuel policies one can currently find various approaches in the literature of incorporating bioenergy into a cge framework this paper gives an overview of existing approaches critically assesses their respective power and discusses the advantages of cge models compared to partial equilibrium models grouping different approaches into categories and highlighting their advantages and disadvantages is important for giving a structure to this rather recent and rapidly growing research area and to provide a guidepost for future work

impacts of ethanol policy on corn prices a review and meta analysis of recent evidence abstract the literature on the impacts of biofuels on agricultural commodity prices is characterized by contradictory findings we review studies published between 2007 and 2014 that estimate the effects of u s corn ethanol policy on corn prices and find estimates ranging from nil to over 80 such divergent results make it difficult to assess the merits of alternative biofuel policies to bring more clarity to the issue and facilitate comparisons across studies we assemble a database of over 150 medium to long run estimates of the effect of corn ethanol production on corn prices from 29 published studies we first normalize corn price impacts by the change in corn ethanol volume to control for the large differences in ethanol quantities across scenarios we then conduct a meta analysis to identify the factors that drive the remaining variation in corn price impacts across studies in addition to ethanol volumes we find that modeling framework projection year inclusion of ethanol co products and biofuel production from other feedstocks explain much of the differences in price effects the results indicate that a one billion gallon expansion of the us corn ethanol mandate in the year 2015 would lead to a three to four percent increase in corn prices with smaller price changes projected in future years

tax evasion and social interactions the paper extends the standard tax evasion model by allowing for social interactions in manski s manski c f 1993 identification of endogenous social effects the reflection problem review of economic studies 60 3 531 542 nomenclature our model takes into account endogenous interactions i e social conformity effects exogenous interactions i e fairness effects and correlated effects our model is tested using experimental data participants must decide how much income to report given individual and group tax rates and audit probabilities and given a feedback on the other members reporting behavior myopic and self consistent expectations are considered in the analysis in the latter case the estimation is based on a two limit simultaneous tobit with fixed group effects a unique social equilibrium exists when the model satisfies coherency conditions in line with brock and durlauf brock w a durlauf s n 2001b interactions based models in j heckman and e leamer eds handbook of econometrics 5 elsevier science b v 3297 380 the intrinsic nonlinearity between individual and group responses helps identify the model our results provide evidence of fairness effects but reject social conformity

biofuel developments in mozambique update and analysis of policy potential and reality abstract climate change rising oil prices and concerns about future energy supplies have contributed to a growing interest in using biomass for energy purposes several studies have highlighted the biophysical potential of biofuel production on the african continent and analysts see mozambique as one of the most promising african countries favorable growing conditions and the availability of land water and labor are mentioned as major drivers behind this potential moreover the potential of biofuel production to generate socio economic benefits is reflected in the government s policy objectives for the development of the sector such as reducing fuel import dependency and creating rural employment this article provides an overview of biofuel developments in mozambique and explores to what extent reality matches the suggested potential in the country we conclude that biofuel developments mainly take place in areas near good infrastructure processing and storage facilities where there is skilled labor available and access to services and goods moreover our analysis shows the need to timely harmonize current trends in biofuel developments with the government s policy objectives as the majority of existing and planned projects are not focusing on remote rural areas and in absence of domestic markets principally target external markets

saving in developing countries theory and review in the literature on economic development much of the interest in saving has been focused on the relation between saving and growth but saving is not only about accumulation it is about smoothing consumption in the face of volatile and unpredictable income and helping to ensure the living standards of poor people whose lives are difficult and uncertain this paper develops a model of households which cannot borrow but which accumulate assets as a buffer stock to protect consumption when incomes are low such households dissave as often as they save do not accumulate assets over the long term and have on average very small asset holdings but their consumption is markedly smoother than their income much of the evidence is as consistent with this view of saving as it is incosistent with standard views of smoothing over the life cycle and with explanations of the link between saving and growth in terms of life cycle saving behavior consumption smoothing is also a useful way of thinking about government policy where volatility in the world prices of taxed commodities can generate sharp fluctuations in government revenues as well as reallocations of revenue between the private and public sectors many important policy issues in developing countries hinge on issues of consumption and smoothing and research on these issues is currently likely to be more productive than work on the relation between saving and growth

tax avoidance as a sustainability problem this manuscript proposes that tax avoidance can be better understood and mitigated as a sustainability problem tax avoidance is not just a financial problem for tax authorities but one that erodes critical common spaces necessary for the smooth functioning of regulatory compliance organizational integrity and society defining tax avoidance as a sustainability problem offers a broader and more holistic understanding of the organizational and societal consequences of tax avoidance behavior sustainability is also a mature and legitimized concept that can readily incorporate taxation a variety of established sustainability metrics have the capacity to incorporate anti tax avoidance measures or publicize firms that engage in fair tax practices this manuscript concludes that integrating sustainability principles in conjunction with important extant work on corporate social responsibility and taxation can advance the goals of decreasing the occurrence and acceptability of tax avoidance

aggressive tax avoidance by managers of multinational companies as a violation of their moral duty to obey the law a kantian rationale managers of multinational companies often favour an aggressive tax avoidance strategy that pushes the legal limits onto the advantage of shareholders and the disadvantage of the spirit of democratically legitimized tax laws the public and media debate whether such aggressive behaviour is immoral aggressive tax avoidance is a subset of the aggressive legal interpretations potentially observable in all fields which places little weight on the will of a democratically legitimized legislation a thorough ethical analysis based on the deontological approach of kant demonstrates that aggressive tax avoidance as a special case of operating on the edge of legal boundaries is potentially immoral applying the kantian contradiction of conception or will test shows that this maxim might not be conceived or willed as a general law of nature if all natural or legal persons aggressively interpret laws on all subjects and in every imaginable situation then central principles of the system of law we all rely upon would be severely compromised therefore aggressive tax avoidance by managers of multinational companies may violate the managers moral duty to obey not only the letter but also the intention or spirit of the law the validity of the argumentation depends critically on the formulation and interpretation of the respective maxims and on assumptions about the legal system preserving central elements of kantian philosophy the article demonstrates the complexity of a philosophical argumentation which tries to justify the moral intuitions that underpin the common negative evaluation of aggressive legal strategies in business

risk sharing and industrial specialization regional and international evidence the authors provide empirical evidence that risk sharing enhances specialization in production to the best of their knowledge this well established and important theoretical proposition has not been tested before the empirical procedure is summarized as follows first the authors construct a measure of specialization in production and calculate an index of specialization for each of the european community ec and non ec oecd countries u s states canadian provinces japanese prefectures latin american countries and regions of italy spain and the united kingdom then they estimate the degree of capital market integration a measure of risk sharing within each of these groups of regions the ec countries the non ec oecd countries the united states canada japan italy spain and the united kingdom and rely on another author s estimate for latin america finally they perform a regression of the specialization index on the degree of risk sharing controlling for relevant economic variables they find a positive and significant relation between the degree of specialization of individual members of a group of countries provinces states or prefectures and the amount of risk that is shared within the group the authors perform regressions using variables such as shareholder rights and the size of the financial sector relative to gdp as instruments for the amount of inter regional risk sharing these regressions confirm that risk sharing facilitated by a favorable legal environment and a developed financial system is a direct causal determinant of industrial specialization this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

on repeated moral hazard with discounting in this paper we analyze optimal contracts in an infinitely repeated agency model in which both the principal and agent discount the future we show that there is a stationary representation of the optimal contract when the agent s conditional discounted expected utility is used as a state variable this representation reduces the multi period problem to a static variational problem which can be analyzed using standard variational techniques this reduction is used to obtain several properties of the contract

changing locus of agricultural research will the poor benefit from biotechnology and privatization trends over the past decade the locus of agricultural research and development has shifted dramatically from the public to the private multinational sector three interrelated forces are transforming the system for supplying improved agricultural technologies to the world s farmers the first is the strengthened and evolving environment for protecting intellectual property in plant innovations the second is the rapid pace of discovery and growth in importance of molecular biology and genetic engineering finally agricultural input and output trade is becoming more open in nearly all countries these developments have created a powerful new set of incentives for private research investment altering the structure of the public private agricultural research endeavor particularly with respect to crop improvement

tax morale affects tax compliance evidence from surveys and an artefactual field experiment our working hypothesis is that cross cultural differences in tax compliance behavior have foundations in the institutions of tax administration and citizen assessment of the quality of governance tax compliance being a complex behavioral issue its investigation requires use of a variety of methods and data sources results from artefactual field experiments conducted in countries with substantially different political histories and records of governance quality demonstrate that observed differences in tax compliance levels persist over alternative levels of enforcement the experimental results are shown to be robust by replicating them for the same countries using survey response measures of tax compliance

trust and taxpaying testing the heuristic approach to collective action theory trust is a critical attitude that extends the duty heuristic developed in scholz and pinney 1995 the trust heuristic can provide the basis for a contingent compliance strategy capable of sustaining cooperative solutions to collective action problems of governance if two conditions are met first compliance with laws must be conditional on levels of trust in specific legal arenas second a citizen s trust in government and trust in other citizens willingness to obey the law must reflect the costs and benefits associated with obeying laws hypothesis this article tests the first hypothesis in the tax arena trust in government and in other citizens increase compliance over and above the levels expected from an internalized sense of duty to obey laws and the fear of getting caught by enforcement agencies like the irs method we test the hypotheses with regression analysis of survey and tax return data from a stratified sample of 299 middleand upper income taxpayers using the newlydeveloped two stage conditional maximum likelihood analysis to control for endogeneity we extend this approach to the analysis of multi categorical ordered dependent variables findings both dimensions of trust significantly increase the likelihood of tax compliance even after controlling for duty fear selection bias and potential endogeneity effects

the impact of biofuel growth on agriculture why is the range of estimates so wide the rapid expansion of biofuel production has generated considerable interest within the body of empirical economic literature that has sought to understand the impact of biofuel growth on the global food economy while the consensus within the literature is that biofuel emergence is likely to have some effect on future world agricultural market there is a considerable range in the estimated size of the impact despite the importance of this topic to policy makers there has been no study that has tried to reconcile the differences among various outlook studies this paper undertakes an in depth review of some key outlook studies which quantify the impacts of biofuels on agricultural commodities and which are based on either general equilibrium ge or partial equilibrium pe modeling approaches we attempt to reconcile the systematic differences in the estimated impacts of biofuel production growth on the prospective prices and production of three major feedstock commodities maize sugar cane and oilseeds across these studies despite the fact that all models predict positive impacts on prices and production there are large differences among the studies our findings point to a number of key assumptions and structural differences that seem to jointly drive the variations we observe across these studies the differences among the pe models are mainly due to differences in the design of scenarios the presence or absence of biofuel trade and the structural way in which agricultural and energy market linkages are modeled the differences among the ge models are likely to be driven by model assumptions on agricultural land supply the inclusion of the byproducts and assumptions on crude oil prices and the elasticity of substitution between petroleum and biofuels