or practice selecting a portfolio of environmental programs for a synthetic fuels facility this article describes how a u s department of energy steering committee used a decision analysis procedure to develop a portfolio of environmental and health research programs for a commercial scale synthetic fuels facility the procedure used information and insights from decision analyses conducted in five technical areas to support decision analysis at the portfolio level the problem was complex because it included many combinations of studies that could be funded multiple objectives in the five technical areas as well as at the portfolio level and uncertainties about research needs the availability of technical data and research costs the article discusses the rationale for using formal decision analysis the main features of the procedure and how the procedure provided the steering committee with a logical basis for evaluating a large number of diverse technical projects and with the help of health and environmental experts established research priorities and budget allocations in a logical and defensible manner

baseline value specification and sensitivity analysis in multiattribute project portfolio selection abstract a key issue in applying multi attribute project portfolio models is specifying the baseline value a parameter which defines how valuable not implementing a project is relative to the range of possible project values in this paper we present novel baseline value specification techniques which admit incomplete preference statements and unlike existing techniques make it possible to model problems where the decision maker would prefer to implement a project with the least preferred performance level in each attribute furthermore we develop computational methods for identifying the optimal portfolios and the value to cost based project rankings for all baseline values we also show how these results can be used to i analyze how sensitive project and portfolio decision recommendations are to variations in the baseline value and ii provide project decision recommendations in a situation where only incomplete information about the baseline value is available

uncertainty and endogenous technical change in climate policy models until recently endogenous technical change and uncertainty have been modeled separately in climate policy models in this paper we review the emerging literature that considers both these elements together taken as a whole the literature indicates that explicitly including uncertainty has important quantitative and qualitative impacts on optimal climate change technology policy

towards an attention based view of the firm the central argument is that firm behavior is the result of how firms channel and distribute the attention of their decision makers what decision makers do depends on what issues and answers they focus their attention on what issues and answers they focus on depends on the specific situation and on how the firm s rules resources and relationships distribute various issues answers and decision makers into specific communications and procedures the paper develops these theoretical principles into a model of firm behavior and presents its implications for explaining firm behavior and adaptation 1997 by john wiley sons ltd

the gender earnings differential in the russian transition economy using data from the russia longitudinal monitoring survey rlms the first nationally representative household survey in the russian federation the author examines the gender earnings differentia

it s not now or never implications of investment timing and risk aversion on climate adaptation to extreme events abstract public investment into risk reduction infrastructure plays an important role in facilitating adaptation to climate impacted hazards and natural disasters in this paper we provide an economic framework to incorporate investment timing and insurance market risk preferences when evaluating projects related to reducing climate impacted risks the model is applied to a case study of bushfire risk management we find that optimal timing of the investment may increase the net present value npv of an adaptation project for various levels of risk aversion assuming risk neutrality while the market is risk averse is found to result in an unnecessary delay of the investment into risk reduction projects the optimal waiting time is shorter when the insurance market is more risk averse or when a more serious scenario for climatic change is assumed a higher investment cost or a higher discount rate will increase the optimal waiting time we also find that a stochastic discount rate results in higher npvs of the project than a discount rate that is assumed fixed at the long run average level

the consequences of minimum wage laws some new theoretical ideas economists generally agree that the effect of a binding minimum wage law is to move firms backward along the demand curve for low skill workers however this prediction of worker displacement depends critically on the assumption that the productivity of firms labor is not dependent on the wage in this paper we show that in a conventional efficiency wage model a minimum wage may increase the level of employment in low wage jobs the formal logic of our model is similar to the case of labor demand under monopsony but arises in a model with a large number of employers

the differential impact of low carbon technologies on climate change mitigation cost under a range of socioeconomic and climate policy scenarios this paper considers the effect of several key parameters of low carbon energy technologies on the cost of abatement a methodology for determining the minimum level of performance required for a parameter to have a statistically significant impact on co2 abatement cost is developed and used to evaluate the impact of eight key parameters of low carbon energy supply technologies on the cost of co2 abatement the capital cost of nuclear technology is found to have the greatest impact of the parameters studied the cost of biomass and ccs technologies also have impacts while their efficiencies have little if any sensitivity analysis of the results with respect to population gdp and co2 emission constraint show that the minimum performance level and impact of nuclear technologies is consistent across the socioeconomic scenarios studied while the other technology parameters show different performance under higher population lower gdp scenarios solar technology was found to have a small impact and then only at very low costs these results indicate that the cost of nuclear is the single most important driver of abatement cost and that trading efficiency for cost may make biomass and ccs technologies more competitive

gender and working time an analysis of employers working time policies information from interviews with manufacturing private service and public service establishments is used to consider how working time requirements are determined and the relationship between these requirements and occupational segregation by gender both men and women are found to be involved in all types of working time regime and unsocial hours working therefore in principle working time requirements do not provide a barrier to occupational desegregation however there are sectoral differences in the type of working time regime adopted and firms adjust their organization of working hours to meet their needs taking into account the customary gender composition of their workforce further introduction of extended and flexible working hours is likely to intensify the sectorally gendered patterns of working time copyright 1991 by oxford university press

economic globalization and women s employment the case of manufacturing in mexico sociological research has been generally critical of the effects of economic globalization on developing countries however greater worldwide economic integration may have created new employment o

ecological modernization in the electrical utility industry an application of a bads goods dea model of ecological and technical efficiency abstract newly developed data envelopment analysis techniques permit simultaneous consideration of good and bad outputs in evaluating efficiency we use these techniques to determine joint ecological and technical efficiencies of the 437 largest fossil fueled electricity generating plants in the united states utilizing the epa s e grid and clean air markets databases and drawing on ecological modernization theory we evaluate whether innovations in organizational practices and technological solutions help achieve joint technical and environmental performance efficiencies

pareto improving minimum wage laws by increasing the expected wage in low skill jobs a minimum wage law can reduce the incentive for low skill workers to imitate high skill workers in the signalling process the gain from reduced investment in the signal can more than offset the loss from unemployment among low skill workers so that total output increases moreover with an appropriate poll tax on workers to compensate owners of capital the law can make all workers and owners of capital better off

the optimal research and development portfolio of low carbon energy technologies a study of china to support decision making for an optimal portfolio strategy for low carbon energy technology research and development r d this study proposes a dynamic two stage stochastic programming model taking into account both the uncertainty of technological change and damages of climate change based on china s economic and technology level and expert elicitation an r d investment portfolio strategy looking at three low carbon technologies carbon capture and storage ccs solar photovoltaic pv and nuclear including nine projects is investigated through the proposed model the optimized results show that the optimal r d technology portfolio is robust to different levels of risk in climate damage however the total social costs for the optimal r d technology portfolio is lowest in the medium risk of climate damage scenario under different opportunity costs the composition of the optimal r d portfolio varies however projects for each of the three technologies always constitute the optimal r d portfolio furthermore the implication is that a technology synergistic r d strategy is conducive to enhancing the level of co2 abatement and reducing the total social cost

firm incentives to promote technological change in pollution control reply abstract the process of technological change in pollution control is broken into three basic steps innovation diffusion and optimal agency response firm incentives to promote these steps are then examined under five regulatory regimes direct controls emission subsidies emission taxes free marketable permits and auctioned marketable permits on a relative basis emission taxes and auctioned permits provide the highest firm incentives to promote technological change at times free permits generate lower incentives direct controls which are common regulatory tools usually provide the lowest relative firm incentives to promote technological change

long term forecasts for energy commodities price what the experts think the ability to forecast energy prices in the long term is important for a wide range of reasons from the formulation of countries energy and transportation policies to the defensive strategies of nations to investment decisions within the private sector despite the importance of these predictions however forecasters and market pundits face a difficult challenge when trying to forecast over the long term while statistical models can credibly rely on assumptions about the relationship between variables in the short term they are frequently less reliable in the long term as political and technological transformations profoundly change how the economy works over time towards improving long term predictions for energy commodities this paper uses the elicitation and aggregation of experts beliefs to put forward forecasts for crude oil and natural gas prices by incentivizing experts to tell the truth and minimising their own biases through the application of the bayesian truth serum with this approach we generated both short term and long term forecasts and used the short term forecast to validate the quality of the experts predictions

climate change and optimal energy technology r d policy public policy response to global climate change presents a classic problem of decision making under uncertainty theoretical work has shown that explicitly accounting for uncertainty and learning in climate change can have a large impact on optimal policy especially technology policy however theory also shows that the specific impacts of uncertainty are ambiguous in this paper we provide a framework that combines economics and decision analysis to implement probabilistic data on energy technology research and development r d policy in response to global climate change we find that given a budget constraint the composition of the optimal r d portfolio is highly diversified and robust to risk in climate damages the overall optimal investment into technical change however does depend in a non monotonic way on the risk in climate damages finally we show that in order to properly value r d abatement must be included as a recourse decision

large scale scenario analysis of future low carbon energy options abstract in this study we use a multi model framework to examine a set of possible future energy scenarios resulting from rd and portfolios lacking ccs and nuclear tend to be stochastically dominated by others we find that the dominance of ccs becomes even stronger as uncertainty in climate damages increases finally we show that there is significant value in carefully choosing a portfolio as relatively small portfolios can dominate large portfolios

a portfolio model for siting offshore wind farms with economic and environmental objectives abstract siting offshore wind farms is a complex problem due to the wake interactions between wind farms we develop a profit maximizing portfolio model based on underlying network models to track the wake effects through a series of wind farms our portfolio model optimizes the siting of wind farms considering multiple wind directions and wind speeds and performs better than simple decision heuristics excluding sites from the portfolio has nonlinear impacts on the profitability of the portfolio of sites in that areas excluded from consideration have greater impacts on profit if they are grouped together or aligned parallel to the prevailing wind direction the model can be readily adapted to include additional cost factors

instrument choice for environmental protection when technological innovation is endogenous this paper compares qualitatively and quantitatively the welfare effects of emissions taxes auctioned emissions permits and free grandfathered permits when technological innovation is endogenous we find that there is no unambiguous case for preferring any of these policy instruments the relative welfare ranking of instruments depends on the costs of innovation the extent to which innovations can be imitated the slope and level of the marginal environmental benefit function and the number of polluting firms we illustrate the types of situations when there can be significant welfare discrepancies between the policies and when there are not

technological change and uncertainty in environmental economics abstract technological change is widely believed to play a crucial role in mastering the challenges of man made climate change the drivers and impacts of technological change have therefore become an important research issue in the field of climate economics while models to analyze the interactions between economy energy and the environment initially treated technological change as exogenous more recent modeling approaches often represent technological change as endogenously induced typically models of induced technological change in climate economics are based on perfect foresight in a deterministic world however both technological change and climate impacts are subject to large uncertainties that may substantially affect the design of efficient climate policies against this background the special issue presents five articles contributing to the study of uncertainty and technological change in climate change economics

implicit contracts labor mobility and unemployment firms inability to monitor their employees search effort forces a tradeoff between risk bearing and incentive considerations when designing employment related insurance since the provision of insurance against firm specific shocks adversely affects workers incentives to find better jobs the optimal contract provides only partial insurance it prescribes low high wages and under over employment to encourage workers to leave stay at low high productivity firms and it employs quits and layoffs as alternative means of inducing separations at low productivity firms with the mix depending upon the relative efficiency of the on and off the job search technologies our analysis of implicit contracts with asymmetric search information establishes that any consistent explanation for worksharing layoffs severance pay quits and unemployment must focus on questions of labor mobility this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

representing induced technological change in models for climate policy analysis induced technological change itc whereby the relative price effects of reducing greenhouse gas emissions stimulate innovation that mitigates the cost of abatement is both tantalizing to decision makers and challenging to represent in the computational economic and engineering models used to analyze climate change policy this overview reconciles the divergent views of technology and technological change within different types of models elucidates the theoretical underpinnings of itc introduces the reader to the techniques of their practical implementation and evaluates the implications for models results

setting environmental policy when experts disagree how can a decision maker assess the potential of environmental policies when a group of experts provides divergent estimates on their effectiveness to address this question we propose and analyze a variant of the well studied alpha maxmin model in decision theory in our framework and consistent to the paper s empirical focus on renewable energy r d investment experts subjective probability distributions are allowed to be action dependent in addition the decision maker constrains the sets of priors to be considered via a parsimonious measure of their distance to a benchmark average distribution that grants equal weight to all experts while our model is formally rooted in the decision theoretic framework of olszewski rev econ stud 74 567 595 2007 it may also be viewed as a structured form of sensitivity analysis we apply our framework to original data from a recent expert elicitation survey on solar energy the analysis suggests that more aggressive investment in solar energy r d is likely to yield significant dividends even or rather especially after taking expert ambiguity into account

photovoltaic power stations in germany and the united states a comparative study by data envelopment analysis abstract this study compares photovoltaic pv power stations between germany and the united states to examine which country more efficiently provides renewable energy in their usages for the comparative analysis this study utilizes data envelopment analysis dea as a methodology to evaluate the performance of pv power stations from the perspective of both solar and land usages a total of one hundred sixty pv power stations eighty in germany and eighty in the united states are used for this comparison the demand for sustainable energy and energy security has been rapidly increasing over the past decade because of concerns about environment and limited resources pv solutions are one of many renewable technologies that are being developed to satisfy a recent demand of electricity germany is the world s top installer and consumer of pv power and the united states is one of the top five nations germany leads the way in installed pv capacity even though the nation has less solar resources and land area due to limited solar resources low insolation and sunshine and land area the united states should have a clear advantage over germany however the empirical result of this study exhibits that pv power stations in germany operate more efficiently than those of the united states even if the latter has many solar and land advantages the surprising result indicates that the united states has room for improvement when it comes to utilizing solar and land resources and needs to reform the solar policy for such a purpose feed in tariff fit may be an effective energy policy at the state level in the united states because the fit provides investors such as utility companies and other types of energy firms with financial incentives to develop large pv power stations and generation facilities for other renewable energy it may be true that the fit is a powerful policy tool to promote pv and other renewable installation and support a reduction of an amount of greenhouse gases however the fit poses a large financial burden to consumers with a massive increase in renewable energy installation like in germany and spain therefore it is necessary for the united states to consider how to align a policy with a speed of technology innovation to balance between the benefit and the cost derived from the policy implementation on renewable energy in addition this study discusses policy issues regarding cost allocation due to fit among stakeholders related to the electric power industry at the end this study proposes a new type of wholesale electricity market that provides simultaneous trading on electricity and greenhouse gas emissions by fully utilizing modern computer science technology that exists in universities and national laboratories of the united states

structuring resource allocation decisions a framework for building multi criteria portfolio models with area grouped options multi criteria portfolio modelling has been extensively employed as an effective means to allocate scarce resources for investment in projects when considering costs benefits and risks some of these modelling approaches allow the grouping of projects into organisational areas thus also supporting the decision of resource allocation among organisational units in a way that is collectively efficient for the organisation however structuring in practice a portfolio model using this latter type of approach is not a trivial task how should areas be defined where should new projects be included how should one define the criteria to evaluate performance as far as we know there is very little indication in the operational research and decision sciences literatures on how to structure this type of model this paper suggests different ways to structuring portfolio models where projects are divided into areas and evaluated by multiple criteria and illustrates their use in two action research projects drawing on these experiences it then suggests a general framework for the structuring of such models in practice directions for future research are also identified

modeling synergies in multi criteria supplier selection and order allocation an application to commodity trading abstract we propose a novel meta approach to support collaborative multi objective supplier selection and order allocation ssoa decisions by integrating multi criteria decision analysis and linear programming lp the proposed model accounts for suppliers performance synergy effects within a hierarchical decision structure it incorporates both heterogeneous objective data and subjective judgments of the decision makers dms representing various groups with different voting powers vps we maximize the total value of purchasing tvp by optimizing order quantity assignment to suppliers and taking into consideration their synergies encountered in different time horizons we apply the proposed model to a contractor selection and order quantity assignment problem in an agricultural commodity trading act company we maximize the strategic effectiveness of both the customers and the suppliers minimize risks increase the degree of cooperation between trading partners on all levels of supply chain integration enhance transparent knowledge sharing and aggregation and support collaborative decision making

preference programming for robust portfolio modeling and project selection in decision analysis difficulties of obtaining complete information about model parameters make it advisable to seek robust solutions that perform reasonably well across the full range of feasible parameter values in this paper we develop the robust portfolio modeling rpm methodology which extends preference programming methods into portfolio problems where a subset of project proposals are funded in view of multiple evaluation criteria we also develop an algorithm for computing all non dominated portfolios subject to incomplete information about criterion weights and project specific performance levels based on these portfolios we propose a project level index to convey i which projects are robust choices in the sense that they would be recommended even if further information were to be obtained and ii how continued activities in preference elicitation should be focused the rpm methodology is illustrated with an application using real data on road pavement projects

the costs of wrongful discharge laws we estimate the effects on employment and wages of wrongful discharge protections adopted by u s state courts during the last three decades we find robust evidence that one wrongful discharge doctrine the implied contract exception reduced state employment rates by 0 8 to 1 7 the initial impact is largest for female and less educated workers those who change jobs frequently while the longer term effect is greater for older and more educated workers those most likely to litigate by contrast we find no robust employment or wage effects of two other widely recognized wrongful discharge laws the public policy and good faith exceptions i introduction w hat is the price of protection this paper estimates the social costs in possibly lower employment and wages of common law protections designed to protect american workers from wrongful discharge economic the ory suggests that employment protection is a double edged sword it provides employment security to incumbent work ers but makes employers reluctant to hire leading to a less flexible labor market with potentially lower employment and wages it is frequently argued that the stagnant employment performance of many european economies during the 1980s and 1990s eurosclerosis can be attributed in part to the significant employment protection given european workers see lazear 1990 and blanchard and wolfers 1999 krueger and pischke 1998 provide a contrasting view among the obstacles to testing this hypothesis is the difficulty of making reliable inferences using cross country comparisons in this paper we study the effects of employment protec tion in the united states numerous scholars have examined the effects of american federal employment laws on em ployment and unemployment acemoglu and angrist 2001 deleire 2000 and jolls and prescott 2004 present evidence that the americans with disabilities act ada decreased employment of disabled persons oyer and schaefer 2000 2002 conclude that the federal civil rights act of 1991 increased the frequency of mass layoffs and raised the returns to experience for workers who have a downward sloping age litigation profile hahn todd and van der klaauw 2001 also evaluate the costs of federal antidiscrimination laws a major hurdle for each of these studies is that these federal statutes apply all at once to the entire country this makes it difficult to separate the effects of the statute from all other changes occurring simulta neously cf donohue 1998 donohue and heckman

the effect of implicit contracts on the movement of wages over the business cycle evidence from micro data in this paper we address the question of whether wages are affected by labor market conditions in a manner more consistent with a contract approach than with a standard spot market model from a simple implicit contract model we derive implications about the links between wages and past labor market conditions using individual data from the current population survey and the panel study of income dynamics we find that an implicit contract model with costless mobility describes these links better than either a simple spot market model or an implicit contract model with costly mobility

on the sources of technological change assessing the evidence this paper uses a selective review of the economic literature on technological change to support four points that are important for interpreting and incorporating technological change into formal models of energy and the environment the review 1 supports the notion that no single source dominates the process of technological change it supports roles for rd 3 indicates that these spillovers are often indirect requiring own industry activities to utilize and 4 indicates that simple experience curve calibrations often used in formal models likely include a range of sources of technological change in addition to learning by doing some of which might not be induced by the sorts of policies typically considered in the climate context

investment in risky r d programs in the face of climate uncertainty we analyze how the socially optimal technology rd and that uncertainty in damages interacts with uncertainty in the returns to rd and r d that reduces the emissions to output ratio and argue that this is a good representation of r d into fossil fuel technologies for r d programs into non carbon technologies optimal investment is higher in riskier programs our empirical model indicates that the optimal investment in a risky program is about 3 1 2 times larger than in a program with certain returns for r d programs aimed at reducing emissions in fossil fuel based technologies our results show that qualitatively investment is higher in less risky programs under most uncertain damage scenarios our empirical model shows however that the risk profile of fossil fuel based r d programs generally has little quantitative impact on optimal investment the exception is that when the probability of a catastrophe inducing full abatement is very high investment is about twice as high in risky programs compared to programs with certain returns

on backstops and boomerangs environmental r d under technological uncertainty abstract in areas such as climate change the recent economic literature has been emphasizing and addressing the pervasive presence of uncertainty this paper considers a new and salient form of uncertainty namely uncertainty regarding the environmental characteristics of green innovations here rd ii a decreasing probability of finding a backstop leads to the toleration of higher pollution levels slower rd iii learning about the probability of a backstop is driven by failures only and leads to decreasing research incentives and iv small to moderate delays in the resolution of technological uncertainty do not affect the optimal policy

returns to capital in microenterprises evidence from a field experiment small and informal firms account for a large share of employment in developing countries the rapid expansion of microfinance services is based on the belief that these firms have productive investment opportunities and can enjoy high returns to capital if given the opportunity however measuring the return to capital is complicated by unobserved factors such as entrepreneurial ability and demand shocks which are likely to be correlated with capital stock the authors use a randomized experiment to overcome this problem and to measure the return to capital for the average microenterprise in their sample regardless of whether they apply for credit they accomplish this by providing cash and equipment grants to small firms in sri lanka and measuring the increase in profits arising from this exogenous positive shock to capital stock after controlling for possible spillover effects the authors find the average real return to capital to be 5 7 percent a month substantially higher than the market interest rate they then examine the heterogeneity of treatment effects to explore whether missing credit markets or missing insurance markets are the most likely cause of the high returns returns are found to vary with entrepreneurial ability and with measures of other sources of cash within the household but not to vary with risk aversion or uncertainty

emission path planning based on dynamic abatement cost curve abstract global climate change is one of the most serious environmental problems that has attracted an unprecedented global attention the scientific community has recognized that human activity is mostly responsible for global climate warming therefore states participating in the united nations framework convention on climate change unfccc have initiated a series of negotiations on how to develop their own emission reduction targets however the realization of these targets is at the expense of economic development to a great extent therefore an abatement plan is necessary to decide how and when to implement emission reduction targets a marginal abatement cost curve macc often used as an important quantitative tool to estimate abatement burden or evaluate abatement performance should be considered carefully in this paper we enrich the traditional macc by introducing the concept of an immediate unit marginal abatement cost to describe its intrinsic incremental abatement difficulty this cost is proved to be agreed with the actual situation in many ways and is therefore very suitable for practical use two factor learning curve are considered in the model which can go some way in improving the performance of the revised macc using a parameterization method the original problem can be converted into a tractable nonlinear programming problem we use an algorithm to search for the approximate global optimal solution the effectiveness and the efficiency of the algorithm are discussed respectively in the results we find that the abatement path distinguishes largely under different abatement targets some plausible reasons and policy advices are given

selecting a portfolio of solar energy projects using multiattribute preference theory this article reports a procedure developed to assist the u s department of energy in selecting a portfolio of solar energy applications experiments the procedure has also been used in other government procurements and appears to be applicable in a variety of project funding processes the technical quality of each proposed applications experiment was summarized through the use of multiple evaluation measures or attributes these were combined into a single index of the overall technical quality of an experiment through the use of a multiattribute utility function recently derived results in measurable value theory were applied to derive an index of the overall technical quality of a portfolio of experiments budgetary and programmatic issues were handled through the use of constraints this approach allowed the portfolio selection problem to be formulated as an integer linear program details of the application are presented including a discussion of the data requirements and assessment procedure used the portfolio selection procedure was successfully applied and variations of it have been successfully used in four other solar energy procurements

the labor market and corporate structure abstract we analyze the impact of labor demand and labor market regulations on the corporate structure of firms higher wages are associated with lower monitoring irrespective of whether these high wages are caused by labor market regulations unions or higher labor demand we also find that the organization of firms has important macroeconomic implications in particular monitoring is a type of rent seeking activity and the decentralized equilibrium spends excessive resources on monitoring labor market regulations that reduce monitoring by pushing wages up may increase net output or reduce it only by a small amount even though they reduce employment

incentives for advanced pollution abatement technology at the industry level an evaluation of policy alternatives abstract in this research we evaluate the incentive effects of five environmental policy instruments to promote the development and adoption of advanced pollution abatement technology in a heterogenous industry from most to least incentive the policy instruments can be rank ordered as follows i auctioned permits ii emissions taxes and subsidies iii issued marketable permits iv performance standards including performance standards in this list necessitates the assumption that they are differentiated between heterogeneous firms before the technology adoption in a way which replicates the initial emissions control distribution of the efficient incentive based instruments with the starting point normalized in this fashion the instrument rankings are invariant with respect to the size of firms the size of the industry or the industry s abatement cost structure

pv sector in the european union countries clusters and efficiency abstract european union eu due to several challenges that exist nowadays has changed its energy policy in order to fulfill international commitments concerning greenhouse gas emission and to assure safety in supply and stable prices eu has been a leader in renewable energy in many eu countries solar energy is a possible and very viable option together with wind energy photovoltaic energy is the new support core of a low carbon eu economy in what concerns electricity production in this work clusters of countries were generated based on the energy produced by pv systems and the share of energy from pv systems in the total electricity produced by renewable sources this work also analyzed the production of energy from the photovoltaic sector in eu and compared it with the existing potential for this type of energy roughly half of the eu countries are producing energy within the limits of what is expected considering the irradiation on optimally inclined plane however some of them could improve the ratio between energy production and installed power considering the leader countries in energy production from photovoltaic czech republic and spain are the countries that exceed what it is expected

r d investment strategy for climate change abstract the economic costs of stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations over the coming century depend critically on the development of new technologies in the energy sector our research and development r d investment strategy is the control variable for technology availability this paper proposes an analytic framework for determining optimal r d investment allocation and presents some numerical results to demonstrate the implementation of the methodology the value of technological advance in three targeted areas fossil based generation renewables and carbon capture and storage is represented by the increase in expected welfare in the presence of an emissions policy constraint of initially uncertain stringency r d expenditure increases the probability of advance optimal investment is determined by its relationship with success probability which is assumed to exhibit decreasing returns to scale relative to the value of success while the numerical results are speculative the paper offers insights into the nature of an optimal technology strategy for addressing climate change

growth and competition in renewable energy industries insights from an integrated assessment model with strategic firms abstract this article describes the development implementation and application of an integrated assessment modeling framework featuring renewable technology markets with producers engaged in cournot competition scenario results reveal how climate policy and inter firm learning spillovers interact with market structure to affect wind and solar pv prices adoption producer profits and carbon emissions competitive markets yield consistently lower markups than concentrated markets leading to significantly more adoption and lower emissions widespread solar pv adoption is a key component of the largest emissions reductions but this requires substantial price reductions that only occur if the solar pv market is competitive and learning spills over across producers whether a leading firm has a profit incentive to facilitate or obstruct learning spillovers depends on the availability of cost competitive substitute technologies if such a substitute exists the firm prefers strong spillovers that help its industry compete against the substitute if not the firm prefers weak spillovers that prevent competitors in its industry from seizing market share the relationship between price and cumulative capacity is endogenous in the modeling framework regression analysis of scenario results yields price learning rates which are similar to unit production cost learning rates in competitive markets but substantially lower even negative in concentrated markets

innovation in pollution control comparisons of the various institutional arrangements for controlling pollutant emissions from individual sources effluent fees effluent control subsidies marketable permits and direct command and control regulation have usually focused on their static efficiency properties and institutional feasibility e g dales 1968 zerbe 1970 baumol and oates 1975 kneese and schultze 1975 marin 1978 mills and white 1978 spence and weitzman 1978 russell 1979 a relatively neglected area has been the study of how each arrangement influences innovation in pollution control a few studies e g kneese and schultze 1975 marin 1978 mills and white 1978 russell 1979 have casually claimed that the control methods that rely on economic incentives provide superior incentives for innovation but there have been few systematic studies of the question this paper provides a simple model of pollution control innovation by a profitmaximizing polluter who is subject to the various control methods the consequences of the methods will be explored in three major contexts first we assume that the polluter and the innovation is a small enough part of the overall pollution problem so that none of the important marginal conditions are changed by the innovation second we assume that the polluter and the innovation are important enough so that marginal conditions are changed by the innovations but that the governmental authority determining pollution control incentives or levels fails to make the appropriate adjustments third we again assume that the innovation causes marginal conditions to change but in this case the governmental authority makes the appropriate adjustments we use the term ratcheting to describe this last phenomenon in all cases we assume that the innovating polluter correctly predicts the reactions of the governmental authority and bases his innovation decisions on that prediction a profit maximizing entrepreneur would normally be expected to adopt any innovation that promised gains present discounted value to him in excess of initial

unpacking multimethodology impacts of a community development intervention multimethodology interventions are being increasingly employed by operational researchers to cope with the complexity of real world problems in keeping with recent calls for more research into the realised impacts of multimethodology we present a detailed account of an intervention to support the planning of business ideas by a management team working in a community development context drawing on the rich steam of data gathered during the intervention we identify a range of cognitive task and relational impacts experienced by the management team during the intervention these impacts are the basis for developing a process model that accounts for the personal social and material changes reported by those involved in the intervention the model explains how the intervention s analytic and relational capabilities incentivise the interplay of participants decision making efforts and integrative behaviours underpinning reported intervention impacts and change our findings add much needed empirical case material to enrich further our understanding of the realised impacts of operational research interventions in general and of multimethodology interventions in particular

the changing position of women in russian industry prospects of marginalization abstract women have played a prominent role in russian industry this paper draws on data from the first two rounds of the russian labor flexibility survey to assess whether the economic and employment changes that occured in 1990 1992 led to their displacement from jobs to a greater or lesser extent than for men it examines the extent of explicit discrimination against women in recruitment and in access to training the changing share of jobs expected changes in female employment and in a preliminary way the degree of gender based occupational segregation of jobs the paper also examines evidence on the neglected issue of gender based wage differentials and indicates changes that seem to have occured in the early part of the restructuring process

mobilizing private finance for low carbon innovation a systematic review of barriers and solutions this paper analyses the field of innovation studies regarding barriers to low carbon innovation and consequences for finance investment and divestment and contributes to a more holistic understanding of the underlying mechanisms a combination of technological barriers combined with economic barriers institutional and political barriers contribute to sub optimal low carbon investment all along the innovation cycle policy makers need to take a systemic approach to enable the redirection of diverse private financial sources instruments range from cutting dirty r d subsidies and support for clean technology innovation and diffusion levelling the institutional playing field and making risks of high carbon and low carbon technologies transparent to providing a consistent but adaptive long term transition strategy this would allow financiers to gradually shift their investments away from high carbon mainstream markets and scale low carbon technology niche markets however financiers also need to sharpen their competencies with regard to new clean technologies and markets

advanced solar r d combining economic analysis with expert elicitations to inform climate policy the relationship between r d investments and technical change is inherently uncertain in this paper we combine economics and decision analysis to incorporate the uncertainty of technical change into climate change policy analysis we present the results of an expert elicitation on the prospects for technical change in advanced solar photovoltaics we then use the results of the expert elicitations as inputs to the minicam integrated assessment model to derive probabilistic information about the impacts of r d investments on the costs of emissions abatement

the damage costs of climate change toward more comprehensive calculations it is argued that estimating the damage costs of a certain benchmark climate change is not sufficient what is needed are cost functions and confidence intervals although these are contained in the integrated models and their technical manuals this paper brings them into the open in order to stimulate discussion after briefly reviewing the benchmark climate change damage costs region specific cost functions are presented which distinguish tangible from intangible losses and the losses due to a changing climate from those due to a changed climate furthermore cost functions are assumed to be quadratic as an approximation of the unknown but presumably convex functions results from the damage module of the integrated climate economy model fund are presented next uncertainties are incorporated and expected damages are calculated it is shown that because of convex loss functions and right skewed uncertain ties the risk premium is substantial calling for more action than analysis based on best guess estimates the final section explores some needs for further scientific research

dynamic portfolio selection of npd programs using marginal returns selecting program portfolios within a budget constraint is an important challenge in the management of new product development npd optimal portfolios are difficult to define because of the combinatorial complexity of project combinations however at the aggregate level of the strategic allocation of resources across product lines investment in a program is not an all or nothing decision but can beadjusted resulting in a higher or lower program benefit e g higher or lower quality in some cases resources can be adjusted even for individual projects with this insight one can usemarginal analysis to optimally allocate the scarce budget this article develops a dynamic model of resource allocation taking into account multiple interacting factors such as independent or correlated uncertain market payoffs that change over time increasing or decreasing returns from the npd investment carry over of the investment benefit over multiple periods and interactions across market segments we characterize optimal policies in closed form and derive qualitative decision rules for managers

stochastic carbon sinks for combating carbon dioxide emissions in the eu abstract this paper carries out numerical calculations on the potential of carbon sinks in the eu emissions trading scheme ets and national commitments under conditions of stochastic carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels and carbon sequestration by forests chance constraint programming is used to analyze the role of stochastic carbon sinks for national and eu wide compliance costs the analytical results show that the inclusion of the carbon sink option can reduce costs for low enough marginal cost and risk discount but also that costless carbon sinks as by products from forestry are not part of a cost effective solution under a high reliability concern cost savings are reduced due to risk discounting under a reliability concern in particular when assigning chebyshev s inequality as compared with a normal probability distribution it is also shown that the supply of forest sinks on the market depends on the differences in marginal abatement cost between the trading and the non trading sectors and in risk discounting between achievements of the ets cap and the national commitment relatively low marginal abatement cost in the non trading sector and high risk discounting of national commitment achievements increase the supply of sinks in the market and hence reduces the equilibrium price the empirical application illustrates the importance of risk discounting for the magnitude of cost savings obtained from introducing forest carbon sinks in the eu ets and national commitments

minimum wage shocks employment flows and labor market frictions we provide the first estimates of the effects of minimum wages on employment flows in the u s labor market identifying the impact using policy discontinuities at state borders we find that minimum wages have a sizable negative effect on employment flows but not stocks separations and accessions fall among affected workers we interpret our findings using a job ladder model in which minimum wage increases can reduce job to job transitions we find that a standard calibration of the model generates predicted relative magnitudes of the employment stock and flow elasticities that are very close to our reduced form estimates

modelling energy technologies in a competitive market abstract energy economic models must predict the mix of energy technologies in competitive energy markets we examine a market composed of several competing technologies with geographically heterogeneous cost distributions an approach for determining both the market share and average market cost of energy produced by these technologies is derived the formalism developed which is based on a conditional least cost distribution function can be used to correct the convertional logit treatment of these quantities in several existing models and to better interpret empirical data in order to determine more realistic cost distribution functions for energy technologies