impacts of the hara biosphere reserve on livelihood and welfare in persian gulf abstract despite the importance of biosphere reserves in iran s livelihood and welfare the economic significance of hara biosphere reserve has never been comprehensively studied this study examines the current importance of hara biosphere reserve hbr in local livelihood and welfare using a household survey data were collected through a questionnaire key informant interviews and direct observations two hundred and forty four households were randomly selected from 10 villages through proportional sampling results showed that non environmental income was the first driver of the total income poverty alleviation and narrowing income inequality gap park income was the second the results also showed that excluding park income from total income would significantly increase headcount poverty widen the poverty gap and raise the gini coefficient wealthier households had the greatest absolute income from the environment including forest fishing and fodder however the poorest group had smallest absolute income from these sources thus the study demonstrated that wealthier households are responsible for the overharvesting of environmental resources interestingly the study showed that wealthier households are more dependent on profitable environmental incomes sources while the poorest are more dependent on non profitable ones

money anticipated changes and policy effectiveness the lucas sargent wallace l s w proposition states that expected policy changes have no influence on real economic variables even in the short run see robert lucas 1972 and thomas sargent and neil wallace 1975 one form of empirical test of the l s w proposition the neutrality proposition began with robert barro s 1977 1978 seminal articles supporting the neutrality proposition however more recent papers including those by david small 1979 john makin 1982 and frederic mishkin 1982a b have reexamined the relationships between anticipated and unanticipated money vs output unemployment and inflation and have found evidence suggesting that anticipated monetary changes do have real effects all of the above cited studies use expectations procedures which estimate for example a money growth equation over the entire period under consideration however this approach assumes that when expectations are being formed at the beginning of the period economic agents have the relevant information for the entire period in this note i reexamine the impact of expected vs unexpected monetary changes focusing on the informational restrictions actually faced by economic agents when formulating expectations the structure of the model used here is similiar to the models of barro and mishkin a measure of real output is assumed to be a function of a policy variable and a vector of predetermined variables the policy variable can be decomposed into anticipated and unanticipated components algebraically

employment and output effects of observed and unobserved monetary growth the purpose of this paper is to present new evidence on the business cycle effects of contemporaneously observed and unobserved money growth the analysis builds on previous work in two ways first and most important in this paper the output and employment effects of unobserved money growth are estimated without maintained hypotheses about other sources of monetary nonneutrality this approach seems appropriate because the relation between money and business cycles is acknowledged to be not well understood for example see the discussion in grossman 1983 and barro 1984 earlier findings of neutral unobserved money growth involved test procedures that maintained either the neutrality of anticipated money growth barro and hercowitz 1980 or the neutrality of observed money growth boschen and grossman 1982 however the empirical measurement and neutrality of anticipated money growth are unsettled issues see mishkin 1982 while the empirical tests by boschen and grossman 1982 reject the neutrality of observed money growth since incomplete monetary information is a central aspect of many business cycle theories it is of considerable interest to estimate the economic impact of contemporaneously unobserved money growth without placing undue restnctions on the moneylbusiness cycle relation this approach also makes clear that tests of monetary nonneutrality due to incomplete information involve a comparison of coefficients on observed and unobserved monetary growth rather than simply a finding of positive significant coefficients on unobserved money growth

measuring entrepreneurship over time abstract this article is a review of three measurement issues that impact the study of entrepreneurship over time 1 level of analysis difference between firms and individuals 2 differences between rate and stock measures and 3 the effects of choosing particular time frames on subsequent analytical results based on theory that views entrepreneurship as depending on ownership rights hawley 1907 this article develops a longitudinal measure of entrepreneurship in the united states the number of organizations per capita the problems and advantages of using a measure based on organizations per capita as an indicator of entrepreneurship is examined understanding how and what is being measured in studies of changes in entrepreneurship over time is an important issue for academic researchers and public policy makers measurement of changes in entrepreneurship over time can shed light on important research questions and public policy issues about entrepreneurship for example is entrepreneurship increasing in the united states if entrepreneurship is increasing is this trend comparable to any previous time periods or is the current increase in entrepreneurship a new or unique social phenomenon what influences changes in entrepreneurship over time the choice of certain measures of entrepreneurship is likely to influence the answers to these questions for example the measures used in an entrepreneurship study are an implicit specification of one s views of entrepreneurship e g entrepreneurship as self employment or firm creation and few measures of entrepreneurship reflect critical changes in important environmental influences e g technological change because of short measurement time frames therefore determining the contribution of entrepreneurship to the well being of an economy is dependent on understanding what measures of entrepreneurship are utilized for making these evaluations and the time frame used for these measures we review three measurement issues that impact the study of entrepreneurship over time 1 level of analysis differences between firms and individuals 2 differences between rate and stock measures and 3 the effects of choosing particular time frames on subsequent analytical results based on theory that views entrepreneurship as depending on ownership rights hawley 1907 this article develops a longitudinal measure of entrepreneurship in the united states the number of organizations per capita studies of entrepreneurship focus on either individual level activity e g self employment or on firm level activity e g new incorporations self employment research focuses on individuals who employ themselves that is individuals who report wages but not wages paid to them by other individuals or organizations in most studies of the self employed firm founders would therefore be classified as wage earners and not as entrepreneurs new firm research focuses on the rate of new firm entrants typically measured as new incorporations so such businesses as proprietorships or partnerships will not be counted a rate is a change from one state to another e g the number of people who become self employed for a specific year or the number of new firms created for a specific year whereas a stock specifies a particular level e g much like a stock of inventory such as the number of self employed or a particular number of firms for a specific time period it is important to recognize that entry into business does not necessarily guarantee remaining in business for example although the number of people who become self employed may increase for a specific year the number of people who remain self employed may actually decrease if more of the self employed fail to remain in business than those that enter the stock of the self employed can decrease if the outflow of self employed is greater than the inflow for those persons interested in whether entrepreneurial activity results in wealth creation either individually or societally the realization that entry into business may not lead to a sustainable business and therefore no creation of wealth should be a signal that measuring rates of business formation and rates of self employment may not be appropriate for this type of research the factors that drive changes in the rate of entrepreneurship are not likely to be manifest over short timeperiods changes in values attitudes technology government regulations and world economic and social changes have a significant influence on changes in entrepreneurship over time studies that have measured entrepreneurship over recent time periods are therefore likely to miss the influence of these variables we introduce a measure of entrepreneurship organizations per capita based on a theory of entrepreneurship as ownership this measure shows the stock of organizations in the u s economy over time from 1857 to 1992 the problems and advantages of using a measure based on organizations per capita as an indicator of entrepreneurship is examined we conclude with some suggestions for improving entrepreneurship research by recognizing the limitations of particular longitudinal entrepreneurship measures and by challenging the field to seek convergent validity among measures

a rational expectations approach to macroeconometrics frederic s mishkin university of chicago press for the national bureau of economic research chicago 1983 pp xii 172 20 00

trade offs in the investment decisons of european venture capitalists abstract previous studies of venture capital investment criteria which have tended to utilize traditional likert scaled survey methods have produced some general findings which indicate that the human factor is of utmost importance however virtually all of these studies have been undertaken with u s based venture capitalists in addition the studies have generally been exploratory and have assumed a single hierarchy of decision criteria in all cases and across all venture capitalists we do not accept that this is valid therefore our study tested this assumption by investigating the trade offs made by venture capitalists in europe thirty five investment criteria were identified from the literature and from experts in the field and a questionnaire was developed that required the venture capitalist to make 53 pairwise trade offs with multiple levels seventy three venture capitalists from across europe were interviewed and completed the questionnaire conjoint analysis was used to compute relative rankings and overall rankings were computed to provide some general insight into the overall importance of the various criteria after this cluster analysis was used to identify different decision groupings the trade offs were randomized in the questionnaire but for descriptive purposes fall into the following groupings financial product market strategic competitive fund management team management competence and deal all five management team criteria as opposed to management competence criteria were ranked among the first seven product market criteria appeared to be only moderately important and fund and deal criteria were at the bottom of the rankings overall we conclude that the venture capitalists interviewed would as a group prefer to select an opportunity that offers a good management team and reasonable financial and product market characteristics even if the opportunity does not meet the overall fund and deal requirements it appears quite logically that without the correct management team and a reasonable idea good financials are generally meaningless because they will never be achieved cluster analysis identified three groupings of venture capitalists those primarily concerned with investing nationally those who focus solely upon the deal and those mainstream investors who consistently and instinctively rank the five management team criteria at the top of their list however there was no evident country bias a conclusion that is sustained if the countries are grouped by physical proximity northern versus southern europe or by size of the local venture capital community a surrogate for experience moreover there was no relationship to the scale of the fund the typical round of financing or the apparent network the article concludes by outlining the implications of the study for venture capitalists entrepreneurs and the research community

real business cycles and the lucas paradigm when the lucas paradigm is generalized to include real effects the effects of real factors and monetary factors on the business cycle are always interrelated furthermore in such models monetary factors can affect the long run behavior of real output contrary to the commonly held view that they cannot real business cycle models and lucas type models are different paradigms but not in the sense of real versus monetary rather interrelationships between real and monetary factors are intrinsic to the lucas paradigm whereas the real business cycle literature implies a dichotomy between real and monetary factors

science parks and the performance of new technology based firms a review of recent u k evidence and an agenda for future research science parks were established to stimulate the formation and development of new technology based firms ntbfs despite the potential importance of these institutions as a mechanism for generating technological spillovers and employment growth there has been little systematic analysis of their impact on ntbfs in this paper we review some recent evidence comparing the performance of firms located on and off u k science parks this preliminary evidence suggests that the returns to being located on a science park are negligible we conjecture that these results may be due to imprecise estimates of these returns and may also be masking important differences in the returns to different types of science parks in addition we outline an agenda for additional research on the effects of these institutions on ntbf performance

imperfect information and the business cycle imperfect information has played a prominent role in modern business cycle theory this paper assesses its importance by estimating the new keynesian nk model under alternative informational assumptions one version focuses on confusion between temporary and persistent disturbances another on unobserved variation in the inflation target of the central bank a third on persistent mis perceptions of the state of the economy measurement error and a fourth assumes perfect information the standard nk dsge version imperfect information is found to contain considerable explanatory power for business fluctuations signal extraction seems to provide a conceptually satisfactory empirically plausible and quantitatively important business cycle mechanism

money endogeneity and neutrality abstract this paper examines the implications of a contemporaneously observed endogenous money supply in rational expectations models of the lucas barro variety first if there is contemporaneously perceived policy response e g to interest rates then a simultaneous equations bias produces inconsistency in the neutrality tests proposed by king and boschen grossman second if money acts as a signal about economic conditions then autonomous money shocks can have real effects in polar contrast to the lucas barro analyses this non neutrality requires that monetary information be utilized by economic agents

nonfarm income diversification and household livelihood strategies in rural africa concepts dynamics and policy implications abstract asset activity and income diversification lie at the heart of livelihood strategies in rural africa this paper introduces a special issue on the topic income diversification and livelihoods in rural africa cause and consequence of change we concentrate on core conceptual issues that bedevil the literature on rural income diversification and the policy implications of the empirical evidence presented in this special issue

monetary misperceptions output and inflation dynamics we revisit the contribution of misperceived money to business cycles and in particular to the inertial dynamics of inflation following a monetary policy shock we establish three things first the difference between preliminary and revised money data captures monetary misperceptions well second misperceived money is quantitatively substantial and also matters significantly for economic activity and third imperfect information about monetary aggregates can help the standard nk model exhibit inertial inflation dynamics

monetary information and monetary neutrality abstract the monetary theory of business fluctuations in market clearing models constructed under the rational expectations assumption as advanced by lucas and others involves the idea that suppliers and demanders will typically misinterpret movements in the general level of prices as representing more or less favorable relative opportunities for real activities the present paper examines the consequences of agents possessing contemporaneous monetary information of a potentially noisy variety for the non neutrality of unanticipated monetary events within such an equilibrium business cycle model this modification of the information structure has the strong testable implication that real activity will be uncorrelated with contemporaneous monetary data

the fall and rise of the petty bourgeoisie changing patterns of self employment in the postwar united states this article explores the historical trajectory of the self employed segment of the labor force in the united states particularly since 1940 self employment declined in the united states almost steadily from the 19th century to the early 1970s since then it has risen every year explaining this reversal in the historical fortunes of the petty bourgeoisie is the central task of this article we reach four basic conclusions first the reversal in the decline of the self employed is statistically significant and robust across a range of definitions of self employment rates second this reversal is not a simple countercyclical response to the increase in unemployment since the middle 1970s third part of the resurgence of self employment result from the expansion of various postindustrial services that tend to have higher levels of self employment within them within postindustrial sectors however there has not generally been any increase in self employment fourth a significant part of the expansio

aggregate information and the role of monetary policy in an open economy a model of a small open economy in which agents trade in local goods markets and an economy wide asset market is developed purchasing power parity is assumed to hold at the aggregate level however because of local deviations from purchasing power parity agents possess differential information using this framework it is shown that when the exchange rate is flexible monetary policy can influence the distribution of real output by altering the information content of the exchange rate however when monetary policy is committed to fixing the exchange rate by a feedback rule the distribution of real output is independent of the particular exchange rate rule chosen the stability of real output under the two regimes is compared and it is demonstrated that regardless of the stability of domestic monetary policy a flexible exchange rate regime is superior in this respect possible qualifications and extensions of these results are also discussed

conservation agriculture organic marketing and collective action in the honduran hillsides conservation agriculture ca is often perceived to provide win win outcomes for farmers leading to reduced erosion and off site sedimentation as well as improved soil fertility and productivity however adoption rates for ca in many regions of the world remain below expected levels this article looks at the effects of participation in organic markets and farmers organizations on the adoption of soil conservation practices based on original survey data from 241 small scale farm households in honduras we find that both participation in organic markets and farmer based groups have positive effects on the number of soil conservation practices adopted the results indicate that besides supply oriented policy measures such as the provision of technical assistance and extension demand related factors are likely to play an important role in sustainable soil management demand oriented policy measures include support for labeling initiatives and consumer education to facilitate value added product differentiation and market segmentation jel classifications q01 q12 q13 q16

the impact of entrepreneurial capacity experience and organizational support on academic entrepreneurship abstract although sources and determinants of academic entrepreneurship have begun to command the attention of policy makers and researchers there remain many unanswered questions about how individual and social factors shape the decisions of academics to engage in entrepreneurial activities using a large scale panel of academics from a variety of uk universities from 2001 to 2009 this paper examines how an academics level of entrepreneurial capacity in terms of opportunity recognition capacity and their prior entrepreneurial experience shape the likelihood of them being involved in starting up a new venture in addition we explore what role university technology transfer offices ttos play in stimulating venture creation the results show that individual level attributes and experience are the most important predictors of academic entrepreneurship we also find that the social environment surrounding the academic also plays an influential role but its role is much less pronounced than individual level factors finally we show that the activities of the tto play only a marginal indirect role in driving academics to start new ventures we explore the implications of this analysis for policy and organizational design for academic entrepreneurship

technological innovation in canada a comparison of independent entrepreneurs and corporate innovators abstract this paper compares a sample of 124 independent high technology entrepreneurs with 112 corporate entrepreneurs intrapreneurs involved in developing and introducing high tech innovations across canada the study investigates the general management and technical problems faced by these entrepreneurs and contrasts their approach to such issues as market research financing and production the approaches used by the two groups in analyzing their markets and in planning and financing of innovations are compared and contrasted in general the independent entrepreneurs were technically trained usually possessing engineering training but no general management training or experience neither themselves nor members of their management team corporate entrepreneurs were as likely to come from management backgrounds as technical or else supported their lack of general management skills by adding people to their team with skills in marketing finance and manufacturing their problems were more often defending their ideas to management within the corporation obtaining funding and other resources within the firm and finding a corporate mentor to assist them in such areas as fighting political battles providing rewards and incentives for team members and creating the proper overall environment or culture for innovation within the corporation the lack of general management training and experience by the independent entrepreneurs led them to rate various marketing problems as the most serious difficulties in rating the obstacles to launching their innovations the innovations of the independent entrepreneurs were all new products while some of the corporate innovations were new systems or processes often installed within the corporation so the markets for these innovations were also within the corporation and required less of a marketing effort corporations were also much better prepared to handle problems in the marketing planning and operational areas but they had more problems of an interpersonal nature such as the unwillingness to consider alternative approaches the most significant difference in the obstacles encountered was that independent entrepreneurs listed their five most important problems as marketing difficulties in launching their new products corporate entrepreneurs also rated imperfect market analysis as their most important problem but it was closely followed by the lack of entrepreneurial talent within the company these obstacles lead to the primary recommendation of cooperative agreements of partnerships between large and small firms to solve some of these difficulties corporate responses indicated significant difficulty in gaining support within the corporation while independent entrepreneurs did not have to justify their efforts to a corporate hierarchy

a typology of new manufacturing firm founders in wales performance measures and public policy implications abstract a typology of new manufacturing firm founders in wales is presented factors associated with the parental entrepreneurial background employment history and the characteristics of the founder s previous employer prior to start up are explored through the adoption of principal components analysis and cluster analysis a typology of new firm founders is detailed on the basis of 14 characteristics the six founder types are shown to have different abilities to generate new jobs create new wealth and export their manufactured products public policy should not solely be concerned with the number of new firms and the rate of new firm foundation different founder types have established new firms of variable quality in terms of potential for job generation wealth creation and ability to export on a competitive basis there is no shortage of potential new firm founders in wales and public policy should aim to discourage those individuals who are clearly unsuitable for entrepreneur ship if the objective of policy is geographical welfare there is the case for extra assistance to be directed to those regions associated with deep seated factors that make them less conducive to successful entrepreneurial formation and development assistance could vary according to local need in the cause of regional equity policy measures and schemes could be restricted to those areas with the lowest levels of entrepreneurial potential government in this way could minimize its financial commitment to new firms policy while maximizing its effectiveness finally it is suggested that public policy should be targeted to those founder types in problem areas who have the greatest potential for establishing successful new ventures

habitual entrepreneurs in the making how labour market rigidity and employment affects entrepreneurial re entry we investigate the impact of country level labour market regulations on the re entry decision of experienced entrepreneurs whereby they become habitual entrepreneurs multilevel logit models on entry decisions among 15 709 individuals in 29 european countries show that labour market regulations have a positive influence on the decision to re enter into entrepreneurship this positive impact is stronger among individuals holding wage jobs at the time of re entry compared to those that do not our results indicate that novice and habitual entrepreneurs may respond very differently to labour market rigidity we discuss and provide tentative explanations for these differences and outline potential policy implications

the heterogeneous effect of shocks on agricultural innovations adoption microeconometric evidence from rural ethiopia abstract theoretically the relationship between shocks and agricultural innovation adoption could be ambiguous while shocks could lower the competence and capacity of households to adopt new agricultural innovations households can also take up agricultural innovations as a coping mechanism against the different shocks they face using a nationally representative household data from ethiopia of the living standards measurement study integrated surveys on agriculture lsms isa of the world bank this paper analyzes the effect of idiosyncratic and covariate shocks on adoption of different agricultural innovations assuming interdependence among the innovations we find shocks to have heterogeneous effects on the adoption of agricultural innovations specifically production and health shocks have negative effects on the adoption of high cost innovations such as improved seeds chemical fertilizer and irrigation however production shocks are positively associated with low cost innovations such as organic fertilizer to enhance farmers adoption of agricultural innovations especially high cost innovations there is a greater need towards the design of policies and interventions that would reduce household s exposure to production and health shocks

are preliminary announcements of the money stock rational forecasts abstract we develop a theoretical framework of analyzing preliminary announcements of economic data and then apply this framework to the money stock we find that preliminary announcements of the money stock are best characterized as measured with classical errors in variables that is the revision is not correlated with the true value of the series the revision is however forecastable using information available at the time of the preliminary announcement our ability to forecast the revision implies that preliminary announcements are not rational estimates of the true money stock

no news is bad news sensegiving activities media attention and venture capital funding of new technology organizations a significant body of research has examined how new organizations gain legitimacy and how gaining it affects their subsequent access to resources less attention has been given to the problem of how new organizations attract collective attention although related to legitimation the problem of attracting attention is distinct as attention and evaluation are distinct cognitive processes in this study we examine the allocation of collective attention to new organizations in a system of relationships within which new organizations seek to attract attention through their sensegiving activities the information properties of their sensegiving activities affect the level of attention they receive from different types of media and media attention in turn increases their perceived value potential in the eyes of venture capital investors vcs we examine these relationships in a sample of 398 information technology start ups that have obtained different levels of venture capital funding our results show that new organizations that engage in more intense and diverse sensegiving activities attract higher levels of industry media attention and that these effects are enhanced by the human capital of their founders and leaders diverse sensegiving activities are also associated with higher levels of attention from the general media but only the attention of specialized industry media is positively associated with the level of vc funding obtained these findings extend current research on information intermediation and institutional legitimation by demonstrating that media attention early in the life of new organizations affects how they are valued by a well informed expert audience such as vcs they also contribute to entrepreneurship research on the effects of new organizations strategies on their ability to secure resources and to research on vc funding decisions

combining household income and asset data to identify livelihood strategies and their dynamics abstractcurrent approaches to identifying and describing rural livelihood strategies and household movements between strategies over time in developing countries are imprecise here we i present a new statistical quantitative approach combining income and asset data to identify household activity choice variables characterise livelihood strategy clusters and analyse movements between strategies and ii apply the approach using an environmentally augmented three wave household n 427 level panel dataset from nepal combining income and asset data provides a better understanding of livelihood strategies and household movements between strategies over time than using only income or asset data most households changed livelihood strategy at least once over the two three year periods a common pathway out of poverty included an intermediate step during which households accumulate assets through farming petty trading and migratory work

dominance by birthright entry of prior radio producers and competitive ramifications in the u s television receiver industry the u s television receiver industry evolved to be an oligopoly dominated by firms that produced radios prior to tvs data on the experience of all u s radio manufacturers and on the length of survival and rate of innovation of all u s tv entrants are collected to analyze how radio experience influenced entry firm performance and the evolution of market structure in the tv industry consistent with a model of the evolution of an oligopolistic industry more experienced radio firms were more likely to enter tv manufacturing had higher innovation rates and in turn had greater market shares and longer survival suggesting that firm capabilities and the evolution of the tv industry s market structure were critically shaped by firms experience prior to entry copyright 2000 john wiley sons ltd

who become serial and portfolio entrepreneurs serial entrepreneurs run multiple businesses in sequence while portfolio entrepreneurs run multiple businesses in parallel they differ from novice entrepreneurs who have so far operated only one venture the present paper is the first to model occupational choices between all three entrepreneurial types it goes on to discuss its theoretical predictions in the light of independent evidence about serial and portfolio entrepreneurship from the extant literature

firm spin offs in denmark 1981 2000 patterns of entry and exit abstract this paper adds large sample evidence on the extent to which the likelihood of business failure or success is related to relationships between parent firms and their off spring for this purpose we make use of an exhaustive matched employer employee data set covering the entire danish private sector in years 1981 to 2000 to study firm entry and exit special focus is on spin offs a particular group of small entrants which are founded by groups of persons originating from the same former workplace we estimate a multinomial logit model in order to examine which characteristics of the founders and the parent firms increase the probability of spinning off next we carry out a duration analysis of the subsequent transitions of the spin offs and compare their exit risks with those of other entrant firms which have less strong parent progeny relationships in terms of worker flows

information persistence and real business cycles abstract this paper simulates the behavior of output in a new classical macroeconomic model in which agents never observe truly exogenous shocks the key conclusions are twofold first since agents only observe endogenous variables the rational expectations are computed using kalman filtering expectational errors are therefore serially correlated inducing autocorrelation in output and employment second observed innovations in the real money stock affect output since the innovations are correlated with the unobserved real shocks

private firms and corporate governance an integrated economic and management perspective this article provides a definition of corporate governance and highlights the challenges in adapting understanding of governance to the privately held firm we emphasize the need to develop the scope of governance in privately held firms beyond the traditional agency theory focus in the financial economics literature relating to large publicly listed corporations there is a need to draw on and integrate an array of theoretical perspectives from both economics and other social science disciplines as well we present a schematic model of corporate governance which places the contributions presented in the special issue in context and which serves as a guide to highlighting gaps in the research base we review the principal issues relating to corporate governance in privately held firms which relate to governance in different organizational contexts institutional context the industrial sector within which the firm finds itself the ownership context of the firm and the stage within the firm s life cycle the scope of corporate governance and other internal governance mechanisms to be considered we identify areas for further research on corporate governance in privately held firms with respect to processes of governance organizational contexts assumptions about the owners executive remuneration financial reporting the nature of the dependent variable relating to the expected outcome of different approaches to governance and various methodological issues we suggest a need to develop governance codes for privately held firms that are flexible enough to take account of the different types of governance needs of firms at different stages in their life cycle

interest rates aggregate information and monetary policy abstract interest rates set on economy wide markets represent an important source of information to economic agents within the class of business cycle models advanced by lucas and barro this paper explores the information conveyed by such aggregate signals and the types of monetary policies that can influence economic activity by changing the information content of interest rates

look before you leap market opportunity identification in emerging technology firms entrepreneurs play a fundamental role in bringing new technologies to market because technologies are often configurable to serve a variety of different markets it is possible for entrepreneurs to identify multiple market opportunities prior to the first market entry of their emerging firms and if they elect to do so to therefore have a choice of which market to enter first the empirical results presented in this paper offer three new insights regarding this important early stage choice in new firm creation first they reveal that serial entrepreneurs have learned through prior start up experience to generate a choice set of alternative market opportunities before deciding which one to pursue in their new firm creation second the analysis indicates that entrepreneurs who identify a choice set of market opportunities prior to first entry derive performance benefits by doing so third the positive relationship between the number of market opportunities identified prior to first entry and new firm performance is nonlinear and subject to decreasing marginal return the research literature has yet to acknowledge the notion of multiple opportunity identification prior to entry and the related idea of selecting the most favorable market opportunity for the creation of a new technology firm

working through knowledge pools labour market dynamics the transference of knowledge and ideas and industrial clusters this article explores a prominent cluster in the swedish capital stockholm and its surrounding region the ict information and communications technology cluster in particular the article focuses on the issue of the extent to which labour market and labour mobility are the most likely channels for local and extra local sources of knowledge and ideas thus the article positions itself against a growing literature that focuses on rather diffuse and vague notions that knowledge and innovation reside in the air or in the buzz of urban life instead the underlying hypothesis is that in many sectors and industries such things as a cosmopolitan street life or accidental face to face encounters play relatively little part in the flow of experiences knowledge and innovation rather it is in the workplace that these exchanges and flows are located and it is thus through labour mobility that intracluster exchanges occur the article tests such ideas in relation to the ict cluster and the stockholm region using a uniquely detailed time series data set the data set used is based on official taxation and civil registration records and contains complete details on everything from education to career changes to income levels for every individual resident in sweden the detail of the individual records and the complete nature of the data set mean that it offers a unique possibility to examine on a large scale the micro dynamics of individuals in the labour market and in clusters the data are used to examine whether there have existed over time higher levels of labour market mobility in clusters as opposed to the rest of the urban economy the article empirically verifies the idea that labour market mobility is significantly higher in the cluster than in the rest of the urban economy

household income strategies and natural disasters dynamic livelihoods in rural nicaragua this paper assesses the impact of hurricane mitch on livelihood strategies of rural households in nicaragua through destruction or distress sales of productive assets a hurricane or another natural hazard could induce people with relatively remunerative livelihoods to choose more defensive strategies which allow them to survive but at a permanently lower welfare level than before using panel data from before and after hurricane mitch we find that livelihood strategies can be grouped into three welfare categories annual farming and farm employment generate low incomes whereas nonfarm wage employment and livestock farming result in relatively high incomes perennial farming nonfarm self employment and annual cropping with nonfarm employment take an intermediate position high welfare strategies were associated with high levels of capital and the number of people involved was very similar between different years suggesting that households following low welfare strategies were trapped in poverty however many households moved actively between strategies of different welfare levels this indicates that there was no absolute poverty threshold but also that being able to initiate a relatively profitable livelihood strategy was no guarantee that this strategy could be maintained there is no evidence that hurricane mitch affected livelihood strategy transitions livelihood mobility was similar for households inside and outside mitch affected areas

entrepreneurship and the initial size of firms abstract it is clear that entrepreneurs and their firms can vary widely nevertheless most of the research to date on entrepreneurship has examined central tendencies with relatively little attention devoted to entrepreneurial diversity this study examines one of the most distinguishing characteristics of young firms initial size the focus is whether smaller start ups differ from larger ones in the backgrounds of the entrepreneurs their processes of starting or the subsequent patterns of development in this longitudinal study an initial sample of 1903 young firms was examined to determine differences in characteristics of the entrepreneurs and in their processes of starting one year later data were obtained from 742 of these firms permitting analysis of how initial firm size was related to subsequent difficulties encountered and changes made as well as to performance as expected along almost every dimension these starting larger firms had the backgrounds that would seem to be necessary for the assembly of substantial resources they tended to have more education more management experience and goals that were more managerial in nature they also were more likely to have partners women were associated more often with smaller ventures but for this sample there were no differences in the representation of minorities between the smaller and larger start ups those starting larger ventures tended to rely more upon external investors and to start ventures more closely linked to their previous jobs both groups of entrepreneurs sought information from a number of sources but those founding larger ventures utilized professional advisors more whereas those starting smaller ventures utilized informal sources in the year after the first questionnaire differences between the two groups were less marked than expected both groups of surviving firms reported low levels of serious problems with the smaller ventures somewhat surprisingly reporting serious problems less often there were not many differences in changes made except that smaller ventures were more likely to lose partners and larger ventures were more likely to add branches or locations both groups reported high rates of mean growth in sales the smaller ventures with their small initial bases showed larger percentage increases smaller ventures also showed higher percentage increases in employment and surprisingly a greater increase in the absolute number of employees somewhat more of the smaller ventures had discontinued both groups included many firms that grew substantially and others that scaled back demonstrating the fluidity and experimentation characteristic of young firms for entrepreneurs and their advisors for public policy makers and for researchers any progress in understanding entrepreneurial processes should in the long run enhance venture performance the patterns observed here indicate that firms of different initial size tend to be associated with particular entrepreneurial characteristics processes of formation and subsequent patterns of development this diversity should be recognized in the development of assistance programs and university courses as well as in the interpretation of previous research for public policy makers the growth of these firms both small and large indicates the potential of economic contributions from entrepreneur ship further the growth of the smaller start ups suggests that even those ventures that appear to have few resources and modest potential can in the aggregate contribute substantially to the economy

novice portfolio and serial founders are they different abstract there is growing interest in entrepreneurs who have been involved in more than one venture yet to date there has been relatively little theoretical development and systematic empirical examination of the topic in particular there has been little attention to the potential heterogeneity of habitual entrepreneurship this study aims to contribute to this emerging area in two ways first it outlines a conceptual typology of habitual entrepreneurs who have founded purchased or inherited businesses second the empirical part of the study focuses on owner managers providing an exploratory analysis of the characteristics and effects of independent business ownership by novice portfolio and serial founders novice founders are those that have no prior entrepreneurial experience as either a founder an inheritor or a purchaser of a business portfolio founders retain their original business and inherit establish and or purchase another business serial founders are those who sell their original business but at a later date inherit establish and or purchase another business the study derives propositions suggesting differences among the three types of founders at the individual founder level of analysis similarities as well as differences in the personal background work experiences reasons leading to the start up of businesses and personal attitudes to entrepreneurship of these three types of entrepreneurs are explored at the organizational level of analysis finance employment and performance differences among the businesses owned by the three types of entrepreneurs are presented the issues are examined using a sample of entrepreneurs who were the principal owner managers of independent businesses in great britain the sample included 389 novice founders 62 6 75 portfolio founders 12 1 and 157 serial founders 25 3 no statistically significant differences were found among the three groups of entrepreneurs with regard to the main industrial activity geographical location and the age of their businesses univariate and multivariate tests were used to examine potential differences between the groups the results of the study show significant differences between portfolio and serial founders with regard to their parental background work experience and their age when they started their first business differences were also found with respect to reasons leading to start up personal attitudes to entrepreneurship and sources of funds used during the launch period of the surveyed business these findings suggest that habitual entrepreneurs cannot be treated as a homogeneous group the analysis however failed to find any significant differences between the performance of the surveyed firms owned by habitual founders and novice founders and between the two types of habitual founders the findings of the study indicate for researchers that there is a need to carefully define the unit of analysis in any examination of entrepreneurs in particular there is a need to take note of the heterogeneity of types of entrepreneur and to consider the entrepreneur as the appropriate unit of analysis rather than simply the firm although this study focused on habitual founders of businesses the theoretical section of the study also identified other types of habitual entrepreneurs such as serial corporate entrepreneurs and serial management buy out and buy in cases these other types of habitual entrepreneurs would appear to warrant further analysis the findings of this study have a number of implications for practitioners especially venture capitalists the absence of significant performance differences between novice and habitual entrepreneurs which is consistent with the results from other studies emphasizes the need for venture capitalists screening potential investees not to rely solely on previous experience the study also has implications for policy makers especially with respect to decisions concerning the allocation of resources to assist nascent entrepreneurs novice entrepreneurs and habitual entrepreneurs the similarities in business performance among novice serial and portfolio entrepreneurs suggests that policy makers need to be careful in targeting scarce resources most notably targeting resources to encourage talented nascent entrepreneurs to become novice entrepreneurs may offer returns which are at least as good as targeting resources to more experienced entrepreneurs

differences between private firms owned by novice serial and portfolio entrepreneurs implications for policy makers and practitioners w esthead p u cbasaran d and w right m 2003 differences between private firms owned by novice serial and portfolio entrepreneurs implications for policy makers and practitioners reg studies 37 187 200 policy makers can target hard i e financial and soft i e technical assistance to firms some policy makers and practitioners are considering whether resources could be more effectively utilized if they were targeted towards habitual entrepreneurs rather than in the form of additional initiatives to increase the pool of pure nascent entrepreneurs and novice entrepreneurs to inform this policy debate similarities and differences between 354 firms owned by novice serial and portfolio entrepreneurs in scotland are highlighted with regard to the process of financing businesses organizational capabilities as well as the size and performance of the surveyed businesses presented empirical evidence confirms that portfolio entrepreneurs have more diverse experiences and more resources than

policies for sustainable development in the hillside areas of honduras a quantitative livelihoods approach in this article we use data for 376 households 1 066 parcels and 2 143 plots located in 95 villages in the hillside areas in honduras to generate information needed by decision makers to assess the needs and opportunities for public investments and design policies that stimulate natural resource conservation we develop a quantitative livelihood approach using factor and cluster analysis to group households based on the use of their main assets this resulted in seven household categories that pursue similar livelihood strategies we use a multinomial logit model to show that livelihood strategies are determined by comparative advantages as reflected by a combination of biophysical and socioeconomic variables while 92 of the rural hillsides population in honduras lives on us 1 00 capita day or less households that follow a livelihood strategy based on basic grain farming are the poorest because they often live in isolated areas with relatively poor agro ecological and socioeconomic conditions opportunities for off farm work tend to be limited in these areas and household strategies that combine on farm work with off farm work earn higher incomes per capita incomes can be increased by improving road infrastructure widening access to land policies that reduce household size and dependency ratios and adoption of sustainable land management technologies that restore soil fertility we used probit models to show that the latter can be promoted by agricultural extension programs and land redistribution investments in physical assets should be directed toward households that pursue livelihood strategies based on off farm employment or coffee production while agricultural training programs are best focused on livestock producers

quantifying rural livelihood strategies in developing countries using an activity choice approach this article uses a quantitative activity choice approach based on identification of activity variables and application of latent class cluster analysis to identify five major rural livelihood strategies pursued by households n 576 in bolivia nepal and mozambique income sources and welfare outcomes are compared across strategies and household differences in asset holdings are analyzed using multinomial logit regression findings reveal that income diversification is the norm that a higher degree of specialization does not characterize more remunerative livelihood strategies that nonfarm income significantly contributes to higher income earnings that environmental reliance does not vary across strategies and that small scale farmers are the largest and poorest livelihood group some livelihood strategies are superior to all other strategies in terms of income earned access to more remunerative livelihood strategies is determined by land ownership education and ethnic affiliation finally the article also highlights that additional work is required to determine the most suitable methods for livelihood strategy identification

moving up or moving out insights into rural development and poverty reduction in senegal summary while worldwide progress in poverty reduction has been impressive sub saharan africa is lagging behind with slow growth and a high poverty headcount ratio there are fierce debates on how sub saharan africa can foster pro poor growth and the role of agriculture and small versus large scale farming in poverty reduction we contribute to this debate with micro economic empirical evidence from the senegal river delta an area that recently experienced rapid rural development we use household survey data from two panel rounds in 2006 and 2013 and a cluster analysis to investigate livelihood income and poverty dynamics in the region we find that with 4 3 annual growth in average household income 29 5 percentage points poverty reduction and 4 2 percentage points inequality reduction over the period 2006 13 development in the senegal river delta region has been remarkably pro poor income growth and poverty reduction have been most impressive among households moving into wage employment on large scale horticultural export farms and in an emerging service sector income growth in small scale agriculture and non farm businesses has been more modest but has affected the largest number of households transformation in both farm and non farm sectors has driven rural development in the senegal river delta region and investments in both large and small scale agriculture have contributed importantly to household income growth and poverty reduction our findings imply that foreign investments in large scale commercial and export oriented farming can trigger pro poor growth directly through employment effects and indirectly through investment and consumption linkages with the small scale farm and non farm sector

after the exit acquisitions entrepreneurial recycling and regional economic development mason c m and harrison r t 2006 after the exit acquisitions entrepreneurial recycling and regional economic development regional studies 40 55 73 most studies of the impact of mergers and acquisitions suggest they have a detrimental impact on economic development in peripheral regions over the longer term however such assessments fail to consider the post acquisition behaviour of the cashed out entrepreneurs it is argued here that acquisition triggers a process of entrepreneurial recycling in which the entrepreneurs use their newly acquired wealth allied to the experience they have accumulated to engage in other entrepreneurial activities notably starting new business ventures and investing in other businesses as business angels or venture capitalists case studies of five scottish technology based firms that were acquired by non uk companies illustrate this process when entrepreneurial recycling is taken into account the overall impact of acquisition on regional economic development

innovative opportunity pursuit human capital and business ownership experience in an emerging region evidence from ghana this study explores whether an entrepreneur s ability to assemble and leverage human capital particularly specific human capital relating to prior business ownership experience is associated with seven types of product and work practices innovation in an emerging region namely ghana logistic regression estimation revealed that portfolio entrepreneurs were more likely than novice entrepreneurs to report innovation tried multinomial logistic regression analysis revealed that portfolio entrepreneurs were more likely than other entrepreneurs to report innovation tried and introduced if the goals of policy are to increase the quality of new business start ups and maximize investment returns there is a case to target assistance to portfolio entrepreneurs

the capabilities of new firms and the evolution of the us automobile industry firms that diversify into new and existing industries typically outperform de novo entrants but in some new industries diversifying firms are displaced by later entering de novo firms little is known about when and how new firms can overcome the advantages of diversifying firms this is investigated for one industry automobiles where new firms had considerable success all the entrants into the industry from its inception in 1895 through 1966 are identified the heritage of every entrant into the industry is traced including the founders of de novo entrants to explore how time of entry and pre entry experience affected firm survival while diversifying firms on average outperformed de novo entrants de novo entrants founded by individuals that worked for the leading automobile firms outperformed all firms and dominated the industry this is attributed to the novel organizational challenges faced by automobile firms which made the leading firms ideal training grounds for new entrants the implications of these findings for firm capabilities industry competition and regional economic development are discussed copyright 2002 oxford university press

the internationalization of new and small firms a resource based view abstract this paper seeks to enhance understanding of the internationalization of small and medium sized enterprises smes the study focuses upon the following issues can the characteristics of principal founders businesses and the external environment at one point in time be used to explain at a later date whether a firm is still an exporter or a nonexporter whether exporting firms are larger in size than nonexporting firms whether exporting firms report superior performance than nonexporting firms and whether exporting firms are more likely to survive than nonexporting firms to address these questions this study draws upon a sample of 621 manufacturing construction and services businesses located in twelve contrasting environments in great britain surveyed first in 1990 91 and then re interviewed in 1997 a resource based view is reviewed to identify the range of factors encouraging some owner managed smes to enter export markets four categories of human and financial capital are examined general human capital resources the principal founder s management know how the principal founder s specific industry know how and a principal founder s ability to obtain financial resources that can act as a buffer against random shocks variables relating to resource availability in the external environment were also collected and considered control variables previous studies have highlighted substantial industry differences in the propensity for businesses to enter export markets as well as to survive the principal industrial activity of each business in 1990 91 was therefore considered a control variable variables collected during the 1990 91 survey were selected to explain variations in the propensity to export reported by surviving independent firms in 1997 after elimination of missing values the working sample was reduced to 116 independent firms for this study 86 nonexporters and 30 exporters in 1997 in addition the 21 variables were selected to explain variations in business size in 1997 profit performance relative to competitors reported in 1997 changes in employment over the 1990 91 to 1997 period and business survival over the 1990 91 to 1997 period 213 survivors and 395 nonsurvivors multivariate statistical analysis confirmed that previous experience of selling goods or services abroad is a key influence encouraging firms to export businesses with older principal founders with more resources denser information and contact networks and considerable management know how are significantly more likely to be exporters further businesses with principal founders that had considerable industry specific knowledge are markedly more likely to be exporters businesses principally engaged in the service sectors and those located in urban areas are significantly less likely to be exporters a key finding of this study is that the explanatory variables significantly associated with the propensity to export sales abroad are not the same as those significantly associated with selected size and performance measures the resource based explanatory variables selected fail to significantly detect employment growing firms over the 1990 91 to 1997 period they also fail to significantly distinguish surviving independent firms from nonsurviving firms results from this study will provide policy makers and practitioners with additional insights into the key resource based factors associated with the decision by new and small independent firms to export sales abroad practitioners and policy makers can focus upon the characteristics of principal founders businesses and the external environment to predict the subsequent propensity of an independent firm to be an exporter policy makers and practitioners who want more new and small firms to export outside their local areas may prefer to target their resources and assistance to the relatively smaller proportion of firms that have the business and principal founder profiles that are significantly associated with a firm being an exporter

tests of equilibrium macroeconomics using contemporaneous monetary data abstract this paper uses contemporaneous monetary data to carry out econometric tests of the equilibrium approach to modelling the relation between monetary disturbances and macroeconomic fluctuations the theoretical analysis introduces into an equilibrium macroeconomic model the availability of preliminary data on current monetary aggregates and the process of accumulation of revised monetary data the econometric analysis tests two hypothesis derived from this extended model one hypothesis concerns the neutrality of perceived monetary policy the econometric results imply rejection of this hypothesis the other hypothesis concerns the non neutrality of errors in preliminary monetary data the econometric results fail to reject the contrary of this hypothesis these tests provide strong evidence against the reality of the equilibrium approach

how access to irrigation influences poverty and livelihoods a case study from sri lanka abstractthis study combines a livelihoods approach with a regression approach to quantify the effectiveness of irrigation infrastructure investment on improving people s livelihood strategies using a unique dataset based on households in southern sri lanka and a natural experimental setting we estimate from a two stage income regression model to show that irrigation access has a positive effect on income through livelihood choices we also show through qualitative approaches that factors not linked to irrigation infrastructure may contribute to changes in livelihood portfolios in addition we highlight factors that result in certain households being unable to move out of poverty despite access to the improved irrigation infrastructure

inheriting knowledge and sustaining relationships what stimulates the innovative performance of small software firms in the netherlands abstract previous studies showed that firms established by experienced founders have higher survival rates and employment growth but the potential effect of pre entry experiences on innovation remains unclear using an original dataset we examine the effect of founder s experiences the relationship with the founder s previous employer and spatial proximity to the previous workplace on the innovative performance of small software firms in the netherlands apart from entrepreneurial experiences the results suggest no effect of pre entry experiences continued contacts with the founder s previous employer appear to limit the firm s innovative performance but firms do benefit from being established near the previous workplace

raising offtake from cattle grazed on natural rangelands in sub saharan africa a transaction cost economics approach farmers in sub saharan africa are constrained by large transaction costs associated with marketing of their livestock however transaction costs are often not taken into account in the analysis of factors hampering the development of livestock marketing in this region this article empirically measures the influence of transaction costs on the offtake from cattle grazed on natural rangelands in uganda the study is based on the monitoring of 696 cattle transactions in three districts of uganda from august 2004 to august 2005 the estimated models suggest that proportional transaction costs represented by the state of roads distance to markets and time taken to reach the market are important variables constraining market participation in order to raise offtake from the national herd it is essential to explicitly address these costs one potential solution is collective action in marketing of livestock in which proportional and fixed transaction costs are reduced and shared among the group members

growth diversification and business group formation in entrepreneurial firms recent empirical research has demonstrated that the growth process of entrepreneurial firms is frequently achieved through the formation of business groups i e a set of companies run by the same entrepreneur or entrepreneurial team this has been hypothesised as result of a growth process by diversification of the original activity this entrepreneurial growth process offers an alternative explanation for the formation of business groups than that arising from managerial efficiency and expediency the main aim of the article is to explore group formation through entrepreneurial diversification using a sample of high growth entrepreneurial firms the analysis demonstrates that the running of a group of companies by the same entrepreneur is not only induced by the geographical extension of their operation and by diversification but also by the differentiation policy aimed at serving different market segments within the same sector this seems to contrast with the diversification policy and organisational setting of large managerial firms

exchange rate policy and monetary information this paper develops a model of a small open economy in which the presence of local deviations from purchasing power parity give rise to differential information it is assumed that the monetary authorities are committed to buy and sell foreign exchange in order to support an exchange rate policy rule it is demonstrated that exchange rate policy can influence the distribution of real output i if agents possess incomplete and differential information and ii if they have contemporaneous money supply or balance of payments information it is also shown that exchange rate policy can be effective because of its ability to influence the information content of available monetary data the argument is turned around and used to support the frequent release of monetary data

forecastable money growth revisions a closer look at the data the data for preliminary and revised u s money growth data are reexamined the findings contrast with those of the previous literature which has concluded that the data revisions behave like classical measurement errors this paper finds that the revisions are forecastable which contradicts the random measurement hypothesis as well as the efficient forecast hypothesis although ill behaved in this manner it is possible that the announcements represent observations rather than forecasts however the evidence suggests that they are a mixture of the two this finding offers a potential explanation for the failure of the data to show significant real effects of money growth revisions

household strategies and rural livelihood diversification this article reviews the recent literature on diversification as a livelihood strategy of rural households in developing countries with particular reference to sub saharan africa livelihood diversification is defined as the process by which rural families construct a diverse portfolio of activities and social support capabilities in order to survive and to improve their standards of living the determinants and effects of diversification in the areas of poverty income distribution farm output and gender are examined some policy inferences are summarised the conclusion is reached that removal of constraints to and expansion of opportunities for diversification are desirable policy objectives because they give individuals and households more capabilities to improve livelihood security and to raise living standards

prospective monetary policy and the empirical relation between money and output abstract this note clarifies the empirical implications of non neutral prospective monetary policy the basic message is that prospective monetary policy even if empirically important is not an explanation for the positive correlations between observed money growth and output found in the data

a theoretical analysis of optimal financing strategies for different types of capital constrained entrepreneurs in this paper we compare two alternative financing strategies that capital constrained entrepreneurs can adopt they can either wait until they raised enough money to complete their project the more conservative strategy or use limited resources to achieve some intermediate milestone before contacting large outside investors such as venture capitalists the more adventurous strategy we examine how the choice of financing strategy is affected by entrepreneurial types life style serial and pure profit maximizing entrepreneur we show that specific entrepreneurial characteristics may ultimately affect the shape of firms as they may pursue different strategies to achieve similar goals the paper generates a number of empirical predictions on security design the interplay between angel and venture capital finance and the professionalization of the venture capital market c 2006 elsevier inc all rights reserved

reassesing portfolio entrepreneurship portfolio entrepreneurship that is the simultaneous ownership of several businesses is becoming an important theme in the small business research literature to date however there have been few dedicated empirical investigations of the phenomenon this article analyses research on portfolio entrepreneurship that has been derived from a wide range of subject literatures including economic sociology cultural anthropology and agricultural economics the aim is to provide a deeper understanding of the motivations for portfolio entrepreneurship approaches and the processes associated with it