are consumption taxes really better than income taxes abstract we use political equilibrium theory and the neoclassical growth model to compare consumption and income tax systems if government outlays are used for redistribution through transfers then steady state equilibria in societies that use income taxes are not necessarily worse in welfare terms and may even be better income taxes are attractive precisely because they are more distortionary since this implies low equilibrium transfer levels we also find that switching tax systems typically does not benefit the median voter moreover a change from income to consumption taxes may make everybody worse off

investment and interest rate policy abstract the paper s theorems reverse two standard results of new keynesian economics simply by appending endogenous investment to a benchmark imperfect competition sticky price model our results are a a passive interest rate rule where the monetary authority responds to inflation by lowering the real interest rate implies local equilibrium uniqueness whereas an active rule does not generate a locally unique equilibrium b a temporary exogenous increase in the nominal interest rate causes a temporary increase in output and investment extensions of the benchmark model including generalized preferences and alternative interest rate rules are also examined journal of economic literature classification numbers e12 e31 e52

interactions between monetary and fiscal policy under flexible exchange rates we examine fiscal and monetary policy interactions by developing a two country open economy model under flexible exchange rates where overlapping generations of consumers supply labour to imperfectly competitive firms that change their prices infrequently we show in this context that the implications of lax fiscal policy in country a are significant for country b determinacy can be ensured by adopting a passive monetary policy in either country a or country b in both cases however lack of fiscal feedback in country a will imply that fiscal shocks have significant macroeconomic consequences for both countries we examine how the size of these spillovers is influenced by the degree of debt indexation we also show that the fiscal response required to support an active monetary policy is greater when consumers have finite lives and that the characterisation of active and passive regimes does not depend on whether or not debt is indexed

do consumers take advantage of common pricing standards an experimental investigation gaudeul and sugden gaudeul a sugden r 2012 spurious complexity and common standards in markets for consumer goods economica 79 314 209 225 have hypothesized that when some but not all competing products are priced in a common standard consumers who are liable to make errors in cross standard price comparisons use decision rules that discriminate in favor of common standard offers such behavior incentivizes sellers to use common standards we report an experimental test of this hypothesis using choice tasks similar to those represented in the gaudeul sugden model we find that offers priced in common standards were more likely to be inspected but less likely to be chosen and that subjects gained little benefit from common pricing standards that applied to some but not all offers most subjects used dominance editing operations that eliminated transparently dominated offers either as an initial shortlisting device or while offers were being sorted because these operations discriminate against

the compromise effect in action lessons from a restaurant s menu the compromise effect refers to individuals tendency to choose intermediate options its existence has been demonstrated in a large number of hypothetical choice experiments this paper uses field data from a specialties restaurant to investigate the existence and strength of the compromise effect in a natural environment despite the presence of many factors that potentially weaken the compromise effect e g a very large choice set the opportunity to choose familiar options we find evidence for it both in descriptive statistics and regression analyses options which become a compromise after a change in the choice set gain on average five percent in market share we also find that the compromise effect is especially pronounced in groups while for single customers it is statistically insignificant

compatibility between monetary and fiscal policy under emu the debate over the stability and growth pact sgp as a part of european monetary union has highlighted the need to assess the extent to which fiscal policies of union members should be constrained as a pre requisite for price stability within the union in this paper we develop a two country open economy model where each country has overlapping generations of finitely lived consumers who supply labour to imperfectly competitive firms which can only change their prices infrequently we examine the case where the two countries have formed a monetary union but where the fiscal authorities remain independent we show that the fiscal response required to ensure stability of the real debt stock is greater when consumers are not infinitely lived in principle this allows for some compensating behaviour between governments but we show that the scope for compensation is limited the monetary authority can abandon its active targeting of inflation to stabilise the debt of at most one fiscal authority and any other combination of policies will either result in price level indeterminacy and or indefinite transfers of wealth between the two economies finally in a series of simulations we show that fiscal shocks have limited impact on output and inflation provided the fiscal authorities meet the weak requirements of fiscal solvency however when monetary policy is forced to abandon its active targeting of inflation then fiscal shocks have a much greater impact on both output and inflation

wealth distribution in life cycle economies abstract this paper compares the age wealth distribution produced in life cycle economies to the corresponding distribution in the us economy the idea is to calibrate the model economies to match features of the us earnings distribution and then examine the wealth distribution implications of the model economies the findings are that the calibrated model economies with earnings and lifetime uncertainty can replicate measures of both aggregate wealth and transfer wealth in the us furthermore the model economies produce the us wealth gini and a significant fraction of the wealth inequality within age groups however the model economies produce less than half the fraction of wealth held by the top 1 percent of us households

do voters vote ideologically abstract in this paper we address the following question to what extent is the hypothesis that voters vote ideologically i e they always vote for the candidate who is ideologically closest to them testable or falsifiable we show that using data only on how individuals vote in a single election the hypothesis that voters vote ideologically is irrefutable regardless of the number of candidates competing in the election on the other hand using data on how the same individuals vote in multiple elections the hypothesis that voters vote ideologically is potentially falsifiable and we provide general conditions under which the hypothesis can be tested

choice by sequential procedures article history we propose a rule of decision making the sequential procedure guided by routes and show that three influential boundedly rational choice models can be equivalently understood as special cases of this rule in addition the sequential procedure guided by routes is instrumental in showing that the three models are intimately related we show that choice with a status quo bias is a refinement of rationalizability by game trees which in turn is also a refinement of sequential rationalizability thus we provide a sharp taxonomy of these choice models and show that they all can be understood as choice by sequential procedures

interactions between monetary and fiscal policy rules the fiscal stability pact for emu implies that constraints on fiscal policy facilitate inflation control in this paper we identify two stable policy regimes when monetary policy seeks to raise real interest rates in response to excess inflation a self stabilising fiscal policy is required to ensure model stability a fiscal policy which does not by itself ensure fiscal solvency constrains monetary policy to be relatively passive however in simulations we conclude that the central bank does not need to seek on this account the degree of debt stabilisation that appears to be implied by the fiscal stability pact

a primer on mathematical modelling in economics the commission on graduate education in economics had raised several concerns regarding the role of mathematics in graduate training in economics krueger 1991 colander 1998 2005 this paper undertakes a detailed scrutiny of the notion of a utility function to motivate and describe the common patterns across mathematical concepts and results that are used by economists in the process one arrives at a classification of mathematical terms which is used to state mathematical results in economics the usefulness of the classification scheme is illustrated with the help of a discussion of arrow s impossibility theorem common knowledge of the patterns in mathematical concepts and results could be effective in enhancing communication between students teachers and researchers specializing in different sub fields of economics

eliciting welfare preferences from behavioural data sets an individual displays various preference orderings in different payoff irrelevant circumstances it is assumed that the variation in the observed preference orderings is the outcome of some cognitive process that distorts the underlying preferences of the individual we introduce a framework for eliciting the individual s underlying preferences in such cases and then demonstrate it for two cognitive processes satisficing and small assessment errors

welfare criteria from choice an axiomatic analysis abstract we propose an axiomatic approach to the problem of deriving a linear welfare ordering from a choice function admissibility requires that the ordering assigned to a rational choice function is the one that rationalizes it neutrality states that the solution covaries with permutations of the alternatives persistence stipulates that the ordering assigned to two choice functions is also assigned to every choice function in between we prove that these properties characterize the sequential solution the best alternative is the alternative chosen from the universal set the second best is the one chosen when the best alternative is removed and so on we also discuss some alternative axioms and solutions

wealth distribution with random discount factors abstract to explain the pareto tail behavior empirically observed in wealth distributions the quantitative macro literature has occasionally assumed that agents have random discount factors this paper formally proves that the stationary wealth distribution in a simple huggett model with random discounting has power law tails and characterizes the pareto exponents analytically i find that in general there is no clear relationship between the return on wealth and inequality and that the pareto exponent is highly sensitive to the persistence of the discount factor process i also provide a practical guidance for how to characterize the pareto exponents in richer models

reminder game indirectness in persuasion abstract a seller wants a buyer to choose a good whose value is the seller s private information the buyer s memory is limited and she decides whether to remember the good conditional on a signal about the value the seller then decides whether to send a costless message that can remind the buyer of the good since the reminder could convey the seller s private information in equilibrium whether to send a reminder is a non trivial question it is shown that costless messages can be informative in equilibrium in spite of the strong conflict of interest between the players in any informative equilibrium silence conveys positive information about the value whereas the reminder conveys negative information

average cost pricing some evidence and implications we present new survey evidence on pricing behavior for more than 14 000 european firms and study its macroeconomic implications among firms that are price setters roughly 75 respond that their prices are set as a markup on total costs a business practice termed full cost pricing only 25 set prices as markups over variable or marginal costs moreover using industry data for the u s we find that the correlation between changes in output prices and changes in variable input prices is significantly lower when fixed costs are likely to be more important since our results are similar to the findings in the classic and controversial paper of hall and hitch 1939 and subsequent survey evidence we believe it worth studying the implications of full cost pricing for macroeconomics we first propose a problem for the firm where full cost pricing can arise as optimizing behavior we embed this problem featuring an occasionally binding constraint into a simple general equilibrium model we show that when the model is hit by a shock that makes the constraint binding the response of endogenous variables is amplified significantly more than it would be under the unconstrained regime

timing and real indeterminacy in monetary models an increasingly common approach to the theoretical analysis of monetary policy is to ensure that a proposed policy does not introduce real indeterminacy and thus sunspot fluctuations into the model economy policy is typically conducted in terms of directives for the nominal interest rate this paper uses a discrete time money in the utility function model to demonstrate how seemingly minor modifications in the trading environment result in dramatic differences in the policy restrictions needed to ensure real determinacy these differences arise because of the differing pricing equations for the nominal interest rate

nominal price rigidity money supply endogeneity and business cycles abstract this paper investigates the ability of nominal price rigidity to explain the co movement of inflation with the cyclical component of output observed in the post war u s data a dynamic general equilibrium model is constructed with the introduction of monopolistic competition and nominal price rigidity in a standard real business cycle model allowing for an endogenous money supply rule it is then demonstrated that sticky price models can explain the observed associations between movements in inflation and output much better than flexible price models this result depends little on whether money supply is assumed to be endogenous or not

interest rate policy debt and indeterminacy with distortionary taxation abstract the interest rate setting policy of the central bank influences the amount of funds the government must raise to pay the interest on its existing debt with distortionary taxation fiscal adjustments feed back on the model s endogenous variables the conditions under which interest rate and tax policies are compatible with a uniquely determined stable equilibrium are derived for an optimizing sticky price model if the fiscal government continuously balances its budget active interest rate policy easily leads to indeterminacy if there is a positive steady state stock of public debt when short run deficits are allowed active interest rate policy and determinacy are compatible unless the tax rate is too strongly increasing in response to changes in debt the real interest rate or output

skill complexity and strategic interaction abstract we present a win loss game between players with explicitly modeled cognitive limitations differences in the players abilities to analyze the available moves induce preferences over the complexity of the environment and hence incentives to manipulate that complexity other things equal higher skill players are more likely to win in a class of long horizon games with constant complexity greater complexity reduces the advantage of the higher skill player when the higher skill player is the last mover when the lower skill player moves last increasing complexity induces countervailing effects either of which may dominate finally when complexity can be manipulated over the course of the game the benefits of strategic manipulation of complexity can override objective considerations about best move choice resulting in purposeful departures from subgame perfect nash equilibrium behavior

preferred personal equilibrium and simple choices abstract this paper studies choices under the preferred personal equilibrium concept introduced by koszegi and rabin 2006 for modeling choice given expectations based reference dependent preferences the main result of this paper shows that when expectations are not observed and parametric assumptions on utility are not made preferred personal equilibrium choice is a special case of the rational shortlist method of manzini and mariotti 2007 building on this connection the paper provides an axiomatization of preferred personal equilibrium choice behavior and discusses the implications of these results for how choices can be used to test and identify the model and for the relationship between preferred personal equilibrium and other models of behavior

on the distributional effects of reducing capital taxes this article asks whether household heterogeneity and market incompleteness have quantitatively important implications for the welfare effects of tax changes we compare a representative agent economy to an economy in which households face idiosyncratic uninsurable income risk the income process is consistent with empirical estimates and implies a realistic wealth distribution we find that capital tax cuts imply large welfare gains in the representative agent economy however when households are heterogeneous substantial redistribution during transition means that only a minority will support capital tax cuts whereas most households can expect large welfare losses

a testable theory of imperfect perception we provide a new characterization of bayesian expected utility maximization the novel feature of the model is our separation of actions from prizes the signature of the resulting theory is the impossibility of raising utility by switching wholesale from one action to another we provide applications to robustness to the recovery of utility from choice data and to model

salience and consumer choice we present a theory of context dependent choice in which a consumer s attention is drawn to salient attributes of goods such as quality or price an attribute is salient for a good when it stands out among the good s attributes relative to that attribute s average level in the choice set or more broadly the choice context consumers attach disproportionately high weight to salient attributes and their choices are tilted toward goods with higher quality price ratios the model accounts for a variety of disparate evidence including decoy effects and context dependent willingness to pay it also suggests a novel theory of misleading sales

balanced budget rules distortionary taxes and aggregate instability a traditional argument against a balanced budget fiscal policy rule is that it amplifies business cycles by stimulating aggregate demand during booms via tax cuts and higher public expenditures and by reducing demand during recessions through a corresponding fiscal contraction this paper suggests an additional source of instability that may arise from this type of fiscal policy rule it shows that within the standard neoclassical growth model a balanced budget rule can make expectations of higher tax rates self fulfilling if the fiscal authority relies heavily on changes in labor income taxes to eliminate short run fiscal imbalances calibrated versions of the model show that indeterminacy occurs for income tax rates that are empirically plausible for the u s economy and other group of seven countries

revealed p reference theory abstract this paper develops axiomatically a revealed preference theory of reference dependent choice behavior instead of taking the reference for an agent as exogenously given in the description of a choice problem we suitably relax the weak axiom of revealed preference to obtain endogenously the existence of reference alternatives as well as the structure of choice behavior conditional on those alternatives we show how this model captures some well known choice patterns such as the attraction effect jel d11 d81

consumption versus expenditure previous authors have documented a dramatic decline in food expenditures at the time of retirement we show that this is matched by an equally dramatic rise in time spent shopping for and preparing meals using a novel data set that collects detailed food diaries for a large cross section of u s households we show that neither the quality nor the quantity of food intake deteriorates with retirement status we also show that unemployed households experience a decline in food expenditure and food consumption commensurate with the impact of job displacement on permanent income these results highlight how direct measures of consumption distinguish between anticipated and unanticipated shocks to income whereas measures of expenditures obscure the distinction

inflation forecasts and monetary policy proposals for inflation targeting as a strategy for monetary policy leave open the important operational question of how to determine whether current policies are consistent with the long run inflation target an interesting possibility is that the central bank might target current private sector forecasts of inflation either those made explicitly by professional forecasters or those implicit in asset prices we address the issue of existence and uniqueness of rational expectations equilibria when the central bank uses private sector forecasts as a guide to policy actions in a dynamic model which incorporates both sluggish price adjustment and shocks to aggregate demand and aggregate supply we show that strict targeting of inflation forecasts is typically inconsistent with the existence of rational expectations equilibrium and that policies approximating strict inflation forecast targeting are likely to have undesirable properties we also show that economies with more general forecast based policy rules are particularly susceptible to indeterminacy of rational expectations equilibria we conclude that although private sector forecasts may contain information useful to the central bank ultimately the monetary authorities must rely on an explicit structural model of the economy to guide their policy decisions this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

sequentially rationalizable choice a sequentially rationalizable choice function is a choice function that can be retrieved by applying sequentially to each choice problem the same xed set of asymmetric binary relations rationales to remove inferior alternatives these con cepts translate into economic language some human choice heuristics studied in psychology and explain cyclical patterns of choice observed in experiments we study some properties of sequential rationalizability and provide a full character ization of choice functions rationalizable by two and three rationales

tenable strategy blocks and settled equilibria when people interact in familiar settings social conventions usually develop so that people tend to disregard alternatives outside the convention for rational players to usually restrict attention to a block of conventional strategies no player should prefer to deviate from the block when others are likely to act conventionally and rationally inside the block we explore two set valued concepts coarsely and finely tenable blocks that formalize this notion for finite normal form games we then identify settled equilibria which are nash equilibria with support in minimal tenable blocks for a generic class of normal form games our coarse and fine concepts are equivalent and yet they differ from standard solution concepts on open sets of games we demonstrate the nature and power of the solutions by way of examples settled equilibria are closely related to persistent equilibria but are strictly more selective on an open set of games with fine tenability we obtain invariance under the insertion of a subgame with a unique totally mixed payoff equivalent equilibrium a property that other related concepts have not satisfied

probabilistic dominance and status quo bias abstract decision makers have a strong tendency to retain the current state of affairs this well documented phenomenon is termed status quo bias we present the probabilistic dominance approach to status quo bias an alternative is considered acceptable to replace the status quo only if the chances of a subjectively severe loss relative to the status quo are not too high probabilistic dominance is applied and behaviorally characterized in a choice model that allows for a range of status quo biases general enough to accommodate unanimity but also standard expected utility maximization we present a comparative notion of revealing more bias towards the status quo and study its implications to the probabilistic dominance model of choice lastly the model is applied to the endowment effect phenomenon and to a problem of international portfolio choice when investors are home biased

equilibria under monetary and fiscal policy interactions in a portfolio choice model abstract this paper studies how the presence of income taxes changes the properties of general equilibrium models with monetary and fiscal policy interactions it is found that from a global perspective the only policy regime that leads to a unique equilibrium is one where fiscal policy is active i e the fiscal theory of the price level regime in sims 1994 from a local perspective there are three regimes in particular and relative to the previous literature following leeper 1991 a new third regime exists where a passive fiscal rule combined with a passive monetary rule can still deliver determinacy where the same area of the parameter space would lead to multiple solutions if taxes were lump sum to obtain the size of the new regime the paper characterizes analytically the extent to which tax cuts are self financing and how the distortionary tax laffer curve looks near the steady state in the new regime monetary and fiscal backstops are brought into play so as to rule out off equilibrium dynamics and inflation can temporarily increase in order to increase seigniorage revenues with this flexibility the monetary policy is consistent with the real debt remaining bounded and the arithmetic that follows is monetarist and unpleasant in the sense of sargent and wallace 1981

income and wealth heterogeneity in the macroeconomy how do movements in the distribution of income and wealth affect the macroeconomy we analyze this question using a calibrated version of the stochastic growth model with partially uninsurable idiosyncratic risk and movements in aggregate productivity our main finding is that in the stationary stochastic equilibrium the behavior of the macroeconomic aggregates can be almost perfectly described using only the mean of the wealth distribution this result is robust to substantial changes in both parameter values and model specification our benchmark model whose only difference from the representative agent framework is the existence of uninsurable idiosyncratic risk displays far less cross sectional dispersion and skewness in wealth than u s data however an extension that relies on a small amount of heterogeneity in thrift does succeed in replicating the key features of the wealth data furthermore this extension features aggregate time series that depart significantly from permanent income behavior

observing violations of transitivity by experimental methods the preference reversal phenomenon is usually interpreted as evidence of nontransitivity of preference but has also been explained as the result of the difference between individuals responses to choice and valuation problems the devices used by experimenters to elicit valuations and the random lottery selection incentive system this paper reports an experiment designed so that none of these factors could generate systematic nontransitivities yet systematic violations of transitivity were still found the pattern of violation was analogous with that found in previous preference reversal experiments and is consistent with regret theory copyright 1991 by the econometric society

the taylor rule and optimal monetary policy where it denotes the fed s operating target for the federal funds rate pt is the inflation rate measured by the gdp deflator yt is the log of real gdp and y t is the log of potential output identified empirically with a linear trend the rule has since been subject to considerable attention both as an account of actual policy in the united states and elsewhere and as a prescription for desirable policy taylor argues for the rule s normative significance both on the basis of simulations and on the ground that it describes u s policy in a period in which monetary policy is widely judged to have been unusually successful taylor 1999 suggesting that the rule is worth adopting as a principle of behavior here i wish to consider to what extent this prescription resembles the sort of policy that economic theory would recommend i consider the question in the context of a simple but widely used optimizing model of the monetary transmission mechanism which allows one to reach clear conclusions about economic welfare the model is highly stylized but incorporates important features of more realistic models and allows me to make several points that are of more general validity out of concern for the robustness of the conclusions reached the analysis here addresses only broad qualitative features of the taylor rule and attempts to identify features of a desirable policy rule that are likely to hold under a variety of model specifications

flat tax reform a quantitative exploration abstract this paper explores quantitatively the general equilibrium implications of a revenue neutral tax reform in which the current income and capital income tax structure in the u s is replaced by a flat tax as proposed by hall and rabushka 1995 the flat tax 2nd ed hoover the central aspects of such reform the impact of tax reform on capital accumulation and labor supply as well as its distributional consequences are analyzed in a dynamic general equilibrium model main results are that i the elimination of the actual taxation of capital income has an important and positive effect on capital accumulation ii mean labor hours are relatively constant across tax systems but aggregate labor in efficiency units increases iii in all circumstances analyzed the distributions of earnings income and especially wealth become more concentrated

rational choice with status quo bias abstract motivated by the empirical findings concerning the importance of one s current situation on her choice behavior the main objective of this paper is to propose a rational choice theory that allows for the presence of a status quo bias and that incorporates the standard choice theory as a special case we follow a revealed preference approach and obtain two nested models of rational choice that allow phenomena like the status quo bias and the endowment effect and that are applicable in any choice situation to which the standard static choice model applies

does social security privatization produce efficiency gains while privatizing social security can improve labor supply incentives it can also reduce risk sharing we analyze a 50 privatization using an overlapping generations model where heterogeneous agents with elastic labor supply face idiosyncratic earnings shocks and longevity uncertainty when wage shocks are insurable privatization produces about 18 100 of extra resources for each future household after all transitional losses have been compensated for with lump sum taxes when wages are not insurable privatization reduces efficiency by about 2 400 per future household we check the robustness of these results to different model specifications as well as policy reforms and arrive at several surprising conclusions first privatization performs better in a closed economy where interest rates decline with capital accumulation than in an open economy second privatization also performs better when an actuarially fair private annuity market does not exist third government matching of private contributions on a progressive basis is not very effective at restoring efficiency and can actually cause harm

indifference or indecisiveness choice theoretic foundations of incomplete preferences abstract a commonly held belief in economics is that an individual s preferences that are revealed by her choices must be complete this paper takes issue with this position by showing that one may be able to distinguish between indifference and indecisiveness of an agent upon observing her choice behavior we relax the standard weak axiom of revealed preferences warp and show that a potent theory of individual choice with and without risk can be founded on this weaker axiom when it is coupled with some other standard postulates the most notable features here are that an agent is allowed to be indifferent between certain alternatives and indecisive about others moreover an outside observer can identify which of these actually occur upon examining the observable choice behavior of the decision maker as an application we also show how our theory may be able to cope with the classical preference reversal phenomenon

revealed preference rational inattention and costly information acquisition we develop a revealed preference test for optimal acquisition of costly information the test encompasses models of rational inattention sequential signal processing and search we provide limits on the extent to which attention costs can be recovered from choice data we experimentally elicit state dependent stochastic choice data of the form the tests require in simple cases tests con rm that subjects adjust their attention in response to incentives as the theory dictates

self fulfilling mistakes characterisation and welfare this paper incorporates self fullling mistakes into an otherwise classical decision making framework a behavioural agent makes a mistake when he fails to internalize all the consequences of his actions on himself we show that sen s axioms and fully characterize choice data consistent with behavioral agents these two axioms are weaker than sen s axioms and that fully characterize rational agents we oer a welfare benchmark that can be applied to existing behavioural economics models and show the conditions under which our welfare ranking can be used to infer welfare dominated i e mistaken choices using choice data alone

a measure of rationality and welfare evidence showing that individual behavior often deviates from the classical principle of preference maximization has raised at least two important questions 1 how serious are the deviations 2 what is the best way to analyze choice behavior in order to extract information for the purpose of welfare analysis this paper addresses these questions by proposing a new way to identify the preference relation that is closest in terms of welfare loss to the revealed choice

choice and individual welfare we propose an abstract method of systematically assigning a rational ranking to non rationalizable choice data our main idea is that any method of ascribing welfare to an individual as a function of choice is subjective and depends on the economist undertaking the analysis we provide a simple example of the type of exercise we propose namely we define an individual welfare functional as a mapping from stochastic choice functions into weak orders a stochastic choice function or choice distribution gives the empirical frequency of choices for any possible opportunity set framing factors may also be incorporated into the model we require that for any two alternatives x and y if our individual welfare functional recommends x over y given two distinct choice distributions then it also recommends x over y for any mixture of the two choice distributions together with some mild technical requirements such an individual welfare functional must weight every opportunity set and assign a utility to each alternative x which is the sum across all opportunity sets of the weighted probability of x being chosen from the set it therefore requires us to have a prior view about how important or representative a choice of x at a given situation is

welfare implications of switching to consumption taxation abstract we evaluate a reform of the us tax system switching to consumption taxation instead of income taxation we do so in an environment that allows for progressivity of consumption taxes through differential tax rates between basic and non basic consumption goods the consumption tax system that maximizes aggregate welfare involves a 4 subsidy on basic consumption goods and a 68 tax on non basic goods such a tax scheme generates 10 higher output in the long run with a small increase in inequality nonetheless the benchmark with progressive income taxes and mild consumption taxes provides higher welfare on aggregate in the steady state and even more so if we consider the transition

consideration sets and competitive marketing we present a model of competitive marketing based on the notion that consumers are boundedly rational and that firms use marketing tactics in an attempt to influence consumers decision process the standard model of consumer behaviour assumes that the consumer applies well defined preferences to a perfectly perceived set of available alternatives we retain the assumption that consumers have stable preferences but relax the assumption that they have a perfect perception of what is relevant for their consumption problem thus allowing firms to manipulate that perception our aim is to explore the market implications of this departure from the standard model especially for the way firms deploy marketing strategies in competitive environments the cornerstone of our model is the observation that in the modern marketplace consumers face an overwhelmingly large variety of products and therefore often use screening criteria deliberate as well as unconscious in order to reduce the number of relevant alternatives as a result consumers apply their preferences not to the set of objectively feasible alternatives but to a potentially smaller set which they construct at an earlier stage of the decision process borrowing a term from the marketing literature we refer to this set as the consideration set the basic idea underlying this term is that consumers may be unaware of some of the feasible products and even when they become aware of a new product they still need to be persuaded to consider it as a potential substitute to their currently consumed product

efficiency first or equity first two principles and rationality of social choice abstract this paper formalizes two different principles to socially rank allocations under efficiency equity trade off the efficiency first social preference relation ranks an allocation x higher than an allocation y if and only if i x is pareto superior to y or ii x and y are pareto noncomparable and x is equity superior to y the equity first social preference relation reverses the order of application of the two criteria we show that the efficiency first relation may have a cycle whereas the equity first relation is transitive we also characterize and compare the sets of maximal elements for these social preference relations in the edgeworth box and examine the nonemptiness of the sets journal of economic literature classification numbers d71 d63 d61

fiscal adjustment and inflation targeting in less developed countries inflation targeting may not be viable in less developed countries ldcs where policymakers rely too heavily on cuts in infrastructure investment to balance the budget using a mix of analytical and numerical methods we demonstrate that the equilibrium ceases to be saddle point stable under active policy when infrastructure cuts account for 30 70 of fiscal adjustment and the return on infrastructure exceeds a comparatively low threshold value the result is robust to the form of the taylor rule the degree of real wage flexibility the initial level of debt the choice of a balanced budget or debt targeting rule and the q elasticity of private investment spending

rationalizing choice with multi self models this paper studies a class of multi self decision making models proposed in economics psychology and marketing in this class choices arise from the set dependent aggregation of a collection of utility functions where the aggregation procedure satises some simple properties we propose a method for characterizing the extent of irrationality in a choice behavior and use this measure to provide a lower bound on the set of choice behaviors that can be rationalized with n utility functions under an additional assumption scale invariance we show that generically at most ve reasons are needed for every mistake

the risk free rate in heterogeneous agent incomplete insurance economies abstract why has the average real risk free interest rate been less than one percent the question is motivated by the failure of a class of calibrated representative agent economies to explain the average return to equity and risk free debt i construct an economy where agents experience uninsurable idiosyncratic endowment shocks and smooth consumption by holding a risk free asset i calibrate the economy and characterize equilibria computationally with a borrowing constraint of one year s income the resulting risk free rate is more than one percent below the rate in the comparable representative agent economy

the axiomatic structure of empirical content in this paper we provide a formal framework for studying the empirical content of a given theory we define the falsifiable closure of a theory to be the least weakening of the theory that makes only falsifiable claims the falsifiable closure is our notion of empirical content we prove that the empirical content of a theory can be exactly captured by a certain kind of axiomatization one that uses axioms which are universal negations of conjunctions of atomic formulas the falsifiable closure operator has the structure of a topological closure which has implications for example for the behavior of joint vis a vis single hypotheses the ideas here are useful for understanding theories whose empirical content is well understood for example we apply our framework to revealed preference theory and afriat s theorem but they can also be applied to theories with no known axiomatization we present an application to the theory of multiple selves with a fixed finite set of selves and where selves are aggregated according to a neutral rule satisfying independence of irrelevant alternatives we show that multiple selves theories are fully falsifiable in the sense that they are equivalent to their empirical content

investment and interest rate policy a discrete time analysis this paper analyzes the restrictions necessary to ensure that the interest rate policy rule used by the central bank does not introduce local real indeterminacy into the economy it conducts the analysis in a calvo style sticky price model a key innovation is to add investment spending to the analysis in this environment local real indeterminacy is much more likely in particular all forward looking interest rate rules are subject to real indeterminacy

consumption taxes and redistribution this study considers replacing the current us tax system with only aflat tax con sumption tax showing in contrast to the literature that such a reform leads to a decline in inequality and increase in welfare for the welfare poor the results are obtained from a simple model that identifies the main channels through which the reform affects the economy it is shown also that these novel results depend on the distribution of wealth and earnings and that they hold for the relevant

a canonical model of choice with initial endowments we use the revealed preference method to derive a model of individual decision making when the endowment of an agent provides a reference point that may influence her choices this model generalizes the classical rational choice model which views choice as a consequence of utility maximization instead our model sees choice as arising from psychologically constrained utility maximization where the constraints are induced by one s initial endowment in particular this model produces status quo bias as a natural consequence but not necessarily the endowment effect a range of economic applications identify the predictive and explanatory strength of the model in particular we demonstrate that the status quo bias phenomenon reduces the size of the substitution effect in problems of consumption choice

simulating fundamental tax reform in the united states this paper uses a new large scale dynamic life cycle simulation model to compare the welfare and macroeconomic effects of transitions to five fundamental alternatives to the u s federal income tax including a proportional consumption tax and a flat tax the model incorporates intragenerational heterogeneity and a detailed specification of alternative tax systems simulation results project significant long run increases in output for some reforms for other reforms namely those that seek to insulate the poor and initial older generations from adverse welfare changes long run output gains are modest

strategic pricing with rational inattention to quality this paper studies both theoretically and experimentally the pricing strategy of a rm that faces a consumer who is rationally inattentive to product quality sims 2003 in a standard sequential pricing game rational inattention to quality produces two types of mixed strategy perfect bayesian equilibria one where sellers pool at a low price and buyers are fully inattentive to quality and one where there is semi pooling at a high price and buyers are selectively attentive to quality i characterize these

search and satisficing many everyday decisions are made without full examination of all available options and as a result the best available option may be missed we develop a search theoretic choice experiment to study the impact of incomplete consideration on the quality of choices we find that many decisions can be understood using the satisficing model of herbert simon 1955 most subjects search sequentially stopping when a satisficing level of reservation utility is realized we find that reservation utilities and search order respond systematically to changes in the decision making environment jel d03 d12 d83

nit picking the macroeconomic effects of a negative income tax i study a revenue neutral reform of the u s income tax and welfare system that involves the adoption of a negative income tax nit the reform is undertaken in a life cycle economy with individual heterogeneity and uninsurable idiosyncratic labor risk the optimal nit consists of a 22 rate and a transfer equivalent to 11 of per capita gdp the ex ante average welfare gain is a 2 1 annual increase of individual consumption i show that a nit outperforms a flat tax reform income tax plus deduction by a considerable margin the key consequence of the reform is that high productivity agents increase their relative importance in the labor supply at the expense of low productivity agents