heterogeneity and misspecifications in learning abstract in this paper we consider a linear stochastic univariate forward looking model with one lag under adaptive heterogeneous learning the system is populated by two different types of agents who learn through recursive least squares techniques the parameter values in their forecasting models the two groups are constrained to have different information sets one being always a subset of the other we analyze convergence of these two interacting learning processes under different specifications of the forecasting model and in one case we find that an heterogenous expectations equilibrium emerges

intra metropolitan variation in earnings and labor market discrimination an econometric analysis of the atlanta labor market one of the most enduring debates concerning racial differences in earnings is whether housing segregation within metropolitan areas adversely affects the employment opportunities of urban blacks two possible negative effects can be listed first the decentralization of lower skilled jobs combined with the suburban residential exclusion of low income households may have caused wage rates within the suburban labor market to rise above those paid within the central city if this is the case and if housing market discrimination restricts the relative ability of blacks to offer their labor supply to suburban employers then at least part of the racial difference in earnings can be attributed to housing segregation second housing segregation may cause private sector labor market discrimination to be more severe within the central city in comparison to suburban areas as suggested by becker s taste for discriminating model 3 a relatively large black labor supply within the central city may require a lower black to white earnings ratio in order to induce prejudiced employers to hire large numbers of black workers with the workforce of most central cities becoming increasingly black this may be an important factor in explaining racial differences in earnings surprisingly while variation in discrimination among occupations regions industries and sectors have been examined in some detail spatial differences in discrimination between the central city and suburbs have largely escaped analysis in this paper the earnings of private sector workers broken down by occupation race and sex are compared between worksite areas encompassing the metropolitan area of atlanta georgia while an extensive literature can be found on interregional differences in earnings little evidence exists on the spatial variation in wage rates within metropolitan regions in fact virtually nothing has been done on this issue since the classic study of the chicago labor market by rees and shultz 19

inflation announcements and social dynamics this paper investigates the eectiveness of central bank communication when rms have heterogeneous ination expectations that are updated through social dynamics the bank s credibility evolves with these dynamics and determines how well its announcements anchor expectations we show that trying to eliminate high ination by abruptly introducing a low ination target can lead to short term overshooting

performance of monetary policy with internal central bank forecasting abstract recent models of monetary policy have analyzed the desirability of different optimal and ad hoc interest rules under the restrictive assumption that forecasts of the private sector and the central bank are homogeneous this paper studies the implications of heterogeneity in forecasting by the central bank and private agents for the performance of interest rules in a framework of econometric learning

sub national tax autonomy and deficits empirical results for 27 oecd countries van rompuy p sub national tax autonomy and deficits empirical results for 27 oecd countries regional studies this paper explores the impact of the revenue mix on the budgetary performances of regions and local governments in 27 organisation for economic co operation and development oecd countries from 1995 to 2010 the main data are obtained from the oecd fiscal decentralization database that distinguishes tax income according to the degree of sub national control over own resources the empirical results point to a positive impact of autonomous tax income on sub national fiscal balances in contrast to tax sharing agreements however the positive budgetary influence of tax autonomy only prevails from a minimum share of autonomous taxes in sub national own revenue

fiscal and monetary policies in complex evolving economies what is the most appropriate combination of fiscal and monetary policies in economies subject to banking crises and deep recessions we study this issue using an agent based model that is able to reproduce a wide array of macro and micro empirical regularities simulation results suggest that policy mixes associating unconstrained counter cyclical fiscal policy and monetary policy targeting employment is required to stabilise the economy we also show that discipline guided fiscal rules can be self defeating as they depress the economy without improving public finances finally we find that the effects of monetary and fiscal policies become sharper as the level of income inequality increases

the behavior of the exchange rate in the genetic algorithm and experimental economies this paper studies the behavior of the exchange rate in the kareken wallace overlapping generations economy with two currencies in which decision rules are updated using the genetic algorithm the analysis shows that a stationary monetary equilibrium of the kareken wallace model is not stable under the genetic algorithm dynamics the fluctuations in the genetic algorithm exchange rate are driven by fluctuations in the portfolio fractions which change over time in response to the inequality between the rates of return on two currencies further both the genetic algorithm simulations and the experiments with human subjects were characterized by continuing fluctuations of the exchange rate with first period consumption values close to a stationary value

on the efficiency effects of private dis trust in the government abstract we consider a version of the seminal kydland prescott model where in each period some private agents believe the policy announcements made by the government the other agents follow a standard optimizing strategy the fraction of agents who believe the government changes over time according to a word of mouth learning process we show that the initial number of believers and the speed of learning can have drastic consequences for the policy followed and the losses experienced by the different agents in particular the utility of the private sector may jump upwards if the initial number of believers exceeds a given threshold

announcements inflation targeting and central bank incentives this paper studies the incentives a central bank faces in announcing inflation targets when the central bank has private information about the economy and the public is uncertain about the central bank s preferences targeting rules in the absence of announcements reduce the inflationary bias of discretionary policy but they distort the central bank s response to private information about the economy this distortion is eliminated when the central bank is allowed to announce the inflation target announcements also affect credibility although the way they do so depends on the exact definition of credibility that is employed in standard models of monetary policy in which dynamic inconsistency plays a prominent role announcements from the central bank about its policy inten tions are not believable the central bank has an incentive to lie yet central banks often do make announcements and they are legally required to do so in some cases the bank of england for example must issue periodic inflation reports the chairman of the federal reserve is required by the humphrey hawkins act to testify before congress twice each year to explain the fed s policy actions and to detail the fed s outlook for future economic develop ments similarly the reserve bank of new zealand is required under the reserve bank act of 1989 to publish policy statements that spell out its plans the january 1994 legislation governing the banque de france requires its gov ernor to appear before parliament and the european central bank must under the maastricht treaty report at least annually to the european parlia ment if public statements about policy intentions are not credible the question naturally arises as to why central banks are frequently required to make them the answer of course is that announcements do provide the public with some information given the growing interest in policy transparency particu larly among those central banks that have adopted some form of inflation targeting it is perhaps surprising that there has been relatively little explicit analysis of how inflation targeting requirements might combine with reporting requirements to influence the informational content of announcements the conduct of stabilization policies and the central bank s credibility the purpose of this paper is to analyse the way inflation targeting affects the incentives the central bank faces in announcing targets when the central bank has private information about the economy and the public is uncertain about the central bank s preferences inflation targeting has seen increased popularity in recent years but a fixed target for inflation is generally suboptimal in the face of supply shocks while state contingent targets are viewed as not feasible an important result of this paper is that allowing the central bank to announce its own inflation target

expectation calculation and macroeconomic dynamics the authors establish a framework wherein agents make expectation revision decisions subject to a specified calculation technology and preferences over forecast errors the technology endows agents with correctly specified economic models but the cost of expectation calculation using these models leads to gradual and incomplete adjustment to long run rational expectation equilibrium the rational expectations hypothesis emerges as a special case of the equilibrium paths obtained in the authors framework in a natural rate model of monetary policy calculation technology gives rise to long run nonneutrality and hysteresis effects and incomplete adjustment of forecast rules causes output fluctuations to be amplified copyright 1992 by american economic association

work location residence location and the intraurban wage gradient abstract the monocentric city model implies that work and residence locations are likely to be positively correlated and that wages decline with distance from the city center the first implication has not been explicitly tested before we provide strong support for it in census data for cleveland columbus dayton detroit indianapolis philadelphia and pittsburgh previous wage gradient estimates were hindered by lack of individual data on employment location and worker characteristics we solve this problem by estimating probit models that predict optimal work location and using the results to explain wages we find evidence of significant wage gradients

learning the ramsey outcome in a kydland prescott economy abstract we study if adaptive learning by a central bank cb in the kydland and prescott environment can steer the economy to the pareto optimal outcome our cb evaluates its potential strategies regarding the announced and the actual inflation rate through expectations of the performance of these strategies formed thanks to its mental model of the economy this model is forward looking and adaptive at the same time as a starting point we follow arifovic et al 2010 and initially assume that there are two types of agents believers who set their inflation forecast equal to the announced inflation and non believers who form static optimal forecast coupled with a forecast error correction mechanism our results show that the economy can reach near ramsey outcomes most of the time in the absence of believers the economies almost always converge to the ramsey outcome in their experiments with human subjects arifovic and sargent 2003 showed that experimental economies reach and stay close to the ramsey outcome most of the time giving support to the just do it policy recommendation in light of the experimental findings our model is of particular interest as it is the only agent based or adaptive learning model that consistently selects the ramsey outcome in this context

intrinsic heterogeneity in expectation formation we introduce the concept of misspecification equilibrium to dynamic macroeconomics agents choose between a list of misspecified econometric models and base their selection on relative forecast performance a misspecification equilibrium is a stochastic process in which agents forecast optimally given their choices with forecast model parameters and predictor proportions endogenously determined under appropriate conditions the misspecification equilibrium will exhibit intrinsic heterogeneity in which all predictors are used at all times even in the neoclassical limit in which only the most successful predictors are used this equilibrium is attainable under least squares learning and dynamic predictor selection based on average profits

reputation and time consistency recent work has shown that reputational arguments based on trigger strategies can sometimes be used to deal with the problem of time inconsistency in government policy this idea was exploited by robert barro and david gordon 1983 in a model of inflation and by v v chari and patrick kehoe 1988 in a model of capital taxation here it is shown that reputational arguments of this sort are widely applicable 2 a general policy model is developed based on an economy that is stationary over time contains identical households and has no endogenous state variables it is shown in general that the infinite horizon version of this model has equilibria in trigger strategies that yield outcomes strictly better than those attainable as equilibria in the one period model

fiscal decentralization and economic growth abstract fiscal decentralization may indeed have a direct impact on economic growth but the theoretical underpinnings for this relationship remain largely undeveloped a fair summary of the empirical search for a direct relationship between fiscal decentralization and economic growth is that it remains an open question much less attention has been devoted in the literature to the indirect channels through which fiscal decentralization may affect economic growth we argue that much work remains to be done before policy advisors and decision makers can formulate and implement decentralization programs on the basis of improving the rate of economic growth

escaping nash inflation an ordinary differential equation ode gives the mean dynamics that govern the convergence to self confirming equilibria of self referential systems under discounted least squares learning another ode governs escape dynamics that recurrently propel away from a self confirming equilibrium in a model with a unique self confirming equilibrium the escape dynamics make the government discover too strong a version of the natural rate hypothesis the escape route dynamics cause recurrent outcomes close to the ramsey commitment inflation rate in a model with an adaptive government

understanding the soft budget constraint we propose a clarification of the notion of a soft budget constraint a concept widely used in the analysis of socialist transitional and market economies our interpretation is broad enough to embrace most existing approaches to soft budget constraint phenomena and provides a classification of their causes and consequences in light of this interpretation we then review the theoretical literature on the subject and compare it with those on other dynamic commitment problems in economics

female labor supply with a discontinuous nonconvex budget constraint incorporation of a part time full time wage differential this paper incorporates the well documented part time full time wage differential into an empirical labor supply model with both a heterogeneity and a random error term and estimates that model fo

the power to tax analytical foundations of a fiscal constitution preface 1 taxation in constitutional perspective 2 natural government a model of leviathan 3 constraints on base and rate structure 4 the taxation of commodities 5 taxation through time income taxes capital taxes and public debt 6 money creation and taxation 7 the disposition of public revenues 8 the domain of politics 9 open economy federalism and taxing authority 10 toward authentic tax reform prospects and prescriptions epilogue notes selected bibliography index

cheap talk and the fed a theory of imprecise policy announcments this paper examines the problem faced by the federal reserve in announcing its private information about its future policies because it would like to manipulate expectations and pursue a time inconsistent policy the fed cannot reveal its policy objectives precisely and credibly it can however communicate some information about its goals through the cheap talk mechanism of vincent crawford and joel sobel making announcements that are imprecise and only giving ranges within which these goals may lie copyright 1989 by american economic association

cheating for the common good in a macroeconomic policy game abstract this paper presents a simple repeated game model of interaction between an optimizing government and the private sector two polar cases are considered a the private sector is represented by a single agent and b there is a continuum of heterogenous atomistic private agents in both cases the government starts each repetition by making a non binding announcement about its future actions the players have complete and perfect information with one exception the private agents do not know whether or not the government will act as announced thus each private agent i either behaves with probability i as if it trusted the announcement or plays with probability 1 i as a stackelberg leader after observing the reaction of the private sector the government implements the actual policy measures finally the private agent s update i as a function of the payoffs received we show that although the government s announcements are never respected acting as if they were true leads to an outcome that simultaneously improves the situation of the government and of those players that trust it compared to the standard equilibrium solutions an overwhelming majority of private agents very rapidly learns to behave as if the announcements were true the other agents also experience higher payoffs due to an herding effect the fact that the announcements are always reneged is crucial for the solution to be pareto improving these results are in stark contrast to the conclusions usually presented in the related economic literature

an empirical investigation of intraurban wage gradients abstract intraurban wage gradients have received little attention in the urban literature but have been shown theoretically to be important indicators of the spatial characteristics of urban economic activity this study examines the spatial distribution of wages of five groups of municipal public employees in the chicago smsa negative wage gradients significant at the 0 05 level are found for four of the five labor groups results show that monthly wages decrease on average as much as 24 per additional mile from the city center

federalism and the soft budget constraint the government s incentives to bail out inefficient projects are determined by the trade off between political benefits and economic costs the latter depending on the decentralization of government two effects of federalism are derived first fiscal competition among local governments under factor mobility increases the opportunity costs of bailout and thus serves as a commitment device the competition effect second monetary centralization together with fiscal decentralization induces a conflict of interests and thus may harden budget constraints and reduce inflation the checks and balance effect the authors analysis is used to interpret china s recent experience of transition to a market economy copyright 1998 by american economic association

the spatial mismatch hypothesis some new evidence this paper uses commuting times and distance data from the nationwide personal transportation studies of 1977 to 1983 4 to re evaluate the spatial mismatch hypothesis neither minorities nor low income workers have longer commutes in fact their commuting patterns are very similar to those of workers in general this also implies that minorities are not constrained by income or housing to live closer to work however women consistently have shorter worktrips the spatial mismatch hypothesis receives no support from examination of commuting data

learning benevolent leadership in a heterogenous agents economy abstract this paper studies the potential commitment value of cheap talk announcements in an agent based dynamic extension of the kydland prescott model in every period the policy maker makes a non binding inflation announcement before setting the actual inflation rate it updates its decisions using individual evolutionary learning the private agents can choose between two different forecasting strategies they can either set their forecast equal to the announcement or use an adaptive learning scheme to potentially forecast the true inflation they switch between these two strategies as a function of information about the associated payoffs they obtain through word of mouth choosing always the currently most favorable one while all agents using the first strategy make the same forecast those using the second strategy may generate different individual forecasts in spite of the complexity of the environment the boundedly rational policy maker learns to sustain a situation with a positive but fluctuating fraction of believers this outcome is pareto superior to the outcome predicted by standard theory interestingly enough the actions taken by the policy maker undergo marked qualitative changes as a function of the prevailing heterogeneity among and learning characteristics of the private agents

designing tax policy in federalist economies an overview abstract the emerging economic federations of the european union russia and south africa along with the established federations in australia canada and the united states confront the task of designing the institutions for federal fiscal policy this paper reviews the literature on the design of tax policy in federalist economies we conclude that taxation by lower level governments can lead to significant economic inefficiencies and inequities the usual assignment view of federalis recommends central government policies for example resident based taxation or grants in aid to correct these failures these recommendations assume that the central government will act as a benevolent social planner the political economy view of federalism suggests that this assumption is in error and that additional federalist institutions must be considered alternative legislative structures and constitutional rules are considered

fiscal decentralization and intergovernmental fiscal relations a cross country analysis abstract fiscal decentralization consists primarily of devolving revenue sources and expenditure functions to lower tiers of government by bringing the government closer to the people fiscal decentralization is expected to boost public sector efficiency as well as accountability and transparency in service delivery and policy making decentralization also entails greater complexity in intergovernmental fiscal relations and coordination failures in fiscal relations are likely to have a bearing on fiscal positions nationally and subnationally evidence provided in this paper for a sample of 30 countries suggests that coordination failures in intergovernmental fiscal relations are likely to result in a deficit bias in decentralized policy making particularly in the case of developing countries which may not meet important requirements for successful decentralization

transit mobility jobs access and low income labour participation in us metropolitan areas summary while policy makers assert that increased public transit mobility can positively affect employment status for low income persons there is little empirical evidence to support this theory it is generally assumed that public transit can effectively link unemployed car less persons with appropriate job locations hence the call for more public transit services to assist moving welfare recipients to gainful employment thus far the available evidence is anecdotal while general patterns of transit access in relationship to labour participation remain relatively unexplored this analysis examines whether increased transit access is associated with the case status employment status of temporary assistance for needy families tanf recipients in the atlanta georgia baltimore maryland dallas texas denver colorado milwaukee wisconsin and portland oregon metropolitan areas individual tanf recipient location data transit route stop data and employment location data were used in limited dependent variable regression analyses to predict the employment status of tanf recipients the results of this analysis indicate that access to fixed route transit and employment concentrations had virtually no association with the employment outcomes of tanf recipients in the six selected metropolitan areas

life on the frontier migrant information earnings and past mobility this paper examines the extent to which information obtained from past geographic mobility affects both post move job search and earnings in subsequent migration in the united states the study considers this linkage between past and present mobility by estimating earnings frontiers for various categories of interstate migrants partitioned by prior mobility history the results demonstrate that migrant groups exhibiting high relative levels of human capital stock do not necessarily possess superior pre move labor market information it is also demonstrated that the incentive to acquire this pre move information is tied to psychic cost and variation in this cost among migrant types excerpt