dynamic project selection and funding under risk a decision tree based milp approach abstract this paper presents a mixed integer linear programming milp model for a new class of dynamic project selection and funding problems under risk given multiple scarce resources of different qualifications the underlying stochastic decision tree concept extends classical approaches mainly in that it adds a novel node type that allows for the continuous control of discrete branching probability distributions the control functions are piecewise linear and are convex for the costs and concave for the benefits the milp model has been embedded in a prototype decision support system dss with respect to the proposed solution the dss provides complete probability distributions for both costs and benefits

do too many cooks always spoil the stew an experimental analysis of rent seeking and the role of a strategic buyer laboratory methods are used to evaluate the effects of institutional arrangements and rent defending activity on rent seeking auction outcomes in part nash equilibrium predictions are a useful behavioral guide as predicted more rents are dissipated in perfectly discriminating auctions where the high bidder wins than in lotteries where relative bids determine the chance of winning also as predicted the introduction of a rent defending buyer reduces social costs nevertheless the social costs of rent seeking consistently exceed predicted levels moreover individual bidding especially by buyers deviates markedly from nash predictions

all pay auctions an experimental study this paper reports the results of a repeated all pay auction game the auction form used is the simplest possible complete information perfect recall and common value our main findings are that in such an auction over bidding is quite drastic and the seller s revenue depends strongly on the number of bidders in early stages however after a few rounds of play this dependence completely disappears and the seller s revenue becomes independent of the number of participants the results are confronted with two solution concepts of economic theory the nash equilibrium and the symmetric logit equilibrium 2005 published by elsevier b v

self selection and the efficiency of tournaments when exogenously imposed rank order tournaments have incentive properties but their overall efficiency is reduced by a high variance in performance bull schotter and weigelt 1987 however since the efficiency of performance related pay is attributable both to its incentive effect and to its selection effect among employees lazear 2000 it is important to investigate the ex ante sorting effect of tournaments this paper reports results from an experiment analyzing whether allowing subjects to self select into different payment schemes helps in reducing the variability of performance in tournaments we show that when the subjects choose to enter a tournament the average effort is higher and the between subject variance is substantially lower than when the same payment scheme is imposed sorting is efficiency enhancing since it increases the homogeneity of the contestants we suggest that the flexibility of the labor market is an important condition for a higher efficiency of relative performance pay

an experimental investigation of the patterns of international trade this study is the first attempt to create and study a laboratory economy with some of the prominent features of an international economic system the concept of multiple countries in which each country has its own technology preferences and resource endowments is introduced and operationalized the questions posed in the study are related to the law of comparative advantage factor price equalization terms of trade efficiency in production and exchange as guided by multiple and interacting markets and the effects of tariffs on international transactions the study builds on previous work in the experimental study of general equilibrium phenomena

a multi winner nested rent seeking contest this paper considers a symmetric imperfectly discriminating rent seeking contest in which there may be several winners we first demonstrate a serious flaw in previous work and then go on to suggest an alternative method for analyzing the contest in contrast to the previous work we show that the value of the rent is fully dissipated in equilibrium as the number of players becomes large

distributional preferences in probabilistic and share contests we analyze nash equilibria of probabilistic and share contests where players have distributional preferences if players are sufficiently similar distributional preferences create multiple equilibria for the case of only mildly heterogeneous players equilibrium effort can be lower as well as higher than effort exerted by players with selfish preferences these findings can explain the following three anomalies observed in empirical tests of probabilistic and share contests the large variance of effort levels overspreading individual spending that exceeds the nash equilibrium prediction overspending and aggregate spending that exceeds the value of the prize overdissipation if players are sufficiently heterogeneous the game has a unique equilibrium that is more egalitarian than the selfish nash equilibrium it turns out that the less talented competitor may win the larger share of the prize if his inequality aversion is sufficiently strong we analyze how the equilibria evolve if the number of players becomes larger and how sequential moves influence behavior two new insights follow from the analysis of the sequential move game first sequential moves act as a coordination device in case of multiple simultaneous equilibria and second inequality aversion of the more egalitarian player can be used as a commitment device for low effort this effect can reverse the conventional wisdom that the underdog should lead

racing with uncertainty and strategic interaction between competitors as the race unfolds most of the existing literature examines one or other of these features but not the two combined our aim is to see how the efforts of competitors in a race vary with the intensity of rivalry between them in our principal model whch is of a one dimensional race it is shown that the leader in the race makes greater efforts than the follower and efforts increase as the gap between competitors decreases under certain conditions the same results hold in our second related model which is of a two dimensional race

gordon tullock and experimental economics gordon tullock s research has substantially influenced the development of economic science in general and experimental economics in particular we present the first comprehensive survey of this significant achievement we show how tullock s research in bioeconomics influenced later developments in neuroeconomics and how his pioneering work on rent seeking generated a literature of laboratory tests of his hypothesis we also describe tullock s own experiments and draw attention to his early insights on trust games

two stage rent seeking contests with carryovers we examine a two stage contest in which players in twogroups compete noncooperatively to win a rent in thefirst stage each group selects a finalist the twofinalists compete for the rent in the second stage first stage efforts are carried over to the secondstage in the sense that they are partly effective inthe second stage as well we show the following inthe case of player specific carryovers therent dissipation rate increases in the carryover rate with the carryover rate equal to one the rent isfully dissipated in the case of group specificcarryovers however the rent dissipation rate isindependent of the carryover rate

a designer s choice between single prize and parallel tournaments in this article i theoretically and experimentally compare a designer s profits from two tournament designs the first design is a standard winner take all tournament with a single prize the second design features two winner take all parallel tournaments with different prizes where individuals choose which tournament to enter before competing i develop a simple model that illustrates how the relative performances of these designs change as contestants abilities differ the theoretical model shows that the designer s profit is higher lower in the parallel tournament when contestants abilities differ greatly are similar i complement these findings with experimental evidence the experiments show that the parallel tournament is more profitable under high heterogeneity whereas under low heterogeneity the designer is better off with the single prize tournament furthermore high ability agents under participate and low ability agents over participate in the high prize tournament relative to the theoretical prediction jel c72 d82 j33 m51 m52

primaries and the new hampshire effect candidates for u s presidential elections are determined through sequential elections in single states the primaries we develop a model in which candidates can influence their winning probability in electoral districts by spending money on campaigning the equilibrium replicates several stylized facts very well campaigning is very intensive in the first district the outcome of the first election then creates an asymmetry in the candidates incentives to campaign in the next district which endogenously increases the equilibrium probability that the first winner wins in further districts on the normative side our model oers a possible explanation for the sequential organization it leads in expectation to a lower level of advertising expenditures than simultaneous elections moreover if one of the candidates is the more eective campaigner sequential elections also perform better with regard to the selection of the best candidate

do tournaments have incentive effects much attention has been devoted to studying models of tournaments or situations in which an individual s payment depends only on his or her output or rank relative to that of other competitors academic interest derives from the fact that under certain sets of assumptions tournaments have desirable normative properties because of the incentive structures they provide our paper uses nonexperimental data to test whether tournaments actually elicit effort responses we focus on professional golf tournaments because information on the incentive structure prize distribution and measures of individual output players scores are both available we find strong support for the proposition that the level and structure of prizes in pga tournaments influence players performance

an experimental study of the investment implications of bankruptcy laws in bankruptcy laws proportionality is the universal norm when allocating the liquidation value of a bankrupt firm among creditors the theoretical literature on bankruptcy proposes two prominent alternatives to proportionality the equal awards and the equal losses principles we use an experiment to analyze and compare actual creditor behavior under these three principles more specifically we test the following hypotheses replacing proportionality with equal losses increases total investment while replacing proportionality with equal awards decreases total investment under all three principles individual investment choices decrease in response to an increase in the probability of bankruptcy or an increase in risk aversion total investment difference between proportionality and either of the other two principles is independent of the probability of bankruptcy as long as both induce an interior equilibrium the results of the nonparametric tests and random effects tobit regression analyses we conduct on our experimental data offer support for all hypotheses

symmetric two stage contests with budget constraints the impact of a budget constraint on individual expenditures is examined in two models of two stage contests with homogenous and risk neutral players competing to win a single indivisible commonly valued rent the set of players is partitioned into equally sized groups in the first model one contestant from each group survives to compete on the second stage against the other survivors in the second model one group survives the first stage and its members compete against each other on the second stage we derive and discuss the symmetric subgame perfect equilibrium solution for each model

rent seeking with regretful agents theory and experiment abstract we investigate both theoretically and experimentally the role that information disclosure has on behavior in all pay environments in which all agents must exert costly effort but only the winner is rewarded through the lens of all pay auctions we show that bidders who have regret concerns when they lose an auction may alter their bids whether or not information about the winning bid is disclosed all losing bidders regret not bidding 0 however when feedback on the winning bid is provided those bidders who lost at an affordable price may regret not bidding more we show that the former effect causes bidders to lower their bids while the latter effect causes bidders to raise their bids our experimental results indicate overbidding whether or not the winning bid is disclosed to losing bidders however disclosing the winning bid leads to even more aggressive bidding increases revenues decreases the frequency of dropouts and also leads to more efficient allocations thus our results show that information disclosure is a powerful tool that mechanism designers may wish to exploit to extract more rents in all pay environments

the optimal allocation of prizes in contests we study a contest with multiple not necessarily equal prizes contestants have private information about an ability parameter that affects their costs of bidding the contestant with the highest bid wins the first prize the contestant with the second highest bid wins the second prize and so on until all the prizes are allocated all contestants incur their respective costs of bidding the contest s designer maximizes the expected sum of bids our main results are 1 we display bidding equlibria for any number of contestants having linear convex or concave cost functions and for any distribution of abilities 2 if the cost functions are linear or concave then no matter what the distribution of abilities is it is optimal for the designer to allocate the entire prize sum to a single first prize 3 we give a necessary and sufficient conditions ensuring that several prizes are optimal if contestants have a convex cost function

multi battle contests abstract we study equilibrium in a multistage race in which players compete in a sequence of simultaneous move component contests players may win a prize for winning each component contest as well as a prize for winning the overall race each component contest is an all pay auction with complete information we characterize the unique subgame perfect equilibrium analytically and demonstrate that it exhibits endogenous uncertainty even a large lead by one player does not fully discourage the other player and each feasible state is reached with positive probability in equilibrium pervasiveness expected effort in the component contests may be non monotonic in the closeness of the race and realized individual effort may exceed the value of the prize by a factor that is proportional to the maximum number of stage victories required

experimental comparison of multi stage and one stage contests this article experimentally studies a two stage elimination contest and compares its performance with a one stage contest contrary to the theory the two stage contest generates higher revenue than the equivalent one stage contest there is significant over dissipation in both stages of the two stage contest and experience diminishes over dissipation in the first stage but not in the second stage our experiment provides evidence that winning is a component in a subject s utility a simple behavioral model that accounts for a non monetary utility of winning can explain significant over dissipation in both contests it can also explain why the two stage contest generates higher revenue than the equivalent one stage contest

reexamining efficient rent seeking in laboratory markets given millner and pratt s 1989 finding of behavior inconsistent with theory we reexamine efficient rent seeking in experimental markets we show that a when r 3 no nash equilibrium exists and therefore behavior has no theoretical benchmark to judge consistency and b when r 1 with a new experimental design utilizing an explicit expected payoff matrix rent seeking behavior is consistent with both nash equilibrium and dissipation hypotheses

competitive burnout theory and experimental evidence abstract we examine equilibrium selection in a two stage sequential elimination contest in which contestants compete for a single prize this game has a continuum of equilibria only one of which satisfies the coalition proof nash equilibrium cpne refinement that equilibrium involves burning out by using all of one s resources in the first stage it is pareto dominated by many other equilibria we find that cpne predicts well when four people compete but not when eight people compete for two second stage spots using a cognitive hierarchy ch framework we show that when the number of players and the mean number of thinking steps are large the ch prediction involves burning out this provides a partial explanation of our results we also develop a formal argument as to why cpne logic is more compelling with more players we conclude that more competition leads to higher bids and that burning out is indeed a competitive phenomenon

open innovation a real option to restore value to the biopharmaceutical r d abstract the pharmaceutical landscape has changed and new business models based on alliances are increasingly being adopted in this industry biotechnology advances have pushed this development and pooling complementary resources coming from incumbents and newcomers is a key skill to succeed these are the premises for a quick spread of the open innovation oi paradigm in this industry rd to achieve this goal the authors propose a closed form model that is easy to implement to evaluate the oi initiative for selecting an optimal rd i e licensing in or not and the self financing policy the proposed model can be easily implemented into a spreadsheet and the inputs needed to run it are usually requested to evaluate projects using the most used net present value based methods moreover some parameters of the model allow strategic aspects to be considered for example the nature of the project core non core the impending project phase and the risk sharing opportunity the results of the developed numerical example show that the selected portfolio is well balanced in terms of development stages core non core therapeutic areas and licensing in an inbound open innovation solution is preferred in the case of products at their early stages of development

a generalized tullock contest we construct a generalized tullock contest under complete information where contingent upon winning or losing the payoff of a player is a linear function of prizes own effort and the effort of the rival this structure nests a number of existing contests in the literature and can be used to analyze new types of contests we characterize the unique symmetric equilibrium and show that small parameter modifications may lead to substantially different types of contests and hence different equilibrium effort levels

a robust r d project portfolio optimization model for pharmaceutical contract research organizations pharmaceutical drug research and development r d outsourcing to contract research organizations cros has experienced a significant growth in recent decades and the trend is expected to continue a key question for cros and firms in similar environments is which projects should be included in the firm s portfolio of projects as a distinctive contribution to the literature this paper develops and evaluates a business support tool to help a cro decide on clinical r d project opportunities and revise its portfolio of r d projects given the existing constraints and financial and resource capabilities a new mathematical programming model in the form of a capital budgeting problem is developed to help revising and rescheduling of the project portfolio the uncertainty of pharmaceutical r d cost estimates in drug development stages is captured to mimic a more realistic representation of pharmaceutical r d projects and a robust optimization approach is used to tackle the uncertain formulation an illustrative example is presented to demonstrate the proposed approach

the design of rent seeking competitions committees preliminary and final contests the paper examines the common practice in multi contest rent seeking competitions where finalists are selected based on rent seekers efforts in a preliminary contest we find that for any single contest design rent seeking expenditures could be reduced by introducing a preliminary contest if the marginal returns to rent seeking effort in the preliminary contest is sufficiently low in addition to other reasons the paper argues that this may explain why such multi contest designs are common we argue that rent seeking expenditure in the preliminary stage represents the cost of reducing the number of contestants we also find that the practice of setting a higher quality standard in the final contest than the quality standard in the preliminary contest reduces rent seeking waste we derive an expression for the optimal number of finalists under certain conditions we find that the optimal number of finalists is directly proportional or equal to the square root of the number of potential contestants finally we show that whether rent seeking expenditures rise or fall when the rent is awarded by a committee instead of a single administrator depends on the sensitivity of the committee relative to that of the single administrator

risk averse rent seekers and the social cost of monopoly power there is now quite general recognition that the social cost of monopoly power encompasses the resources expended by individuals seeking to become the beneficiaries of monopoly rents however since the activity of rent seeking is generally not observable direct estimates of resources expended in quests to acquire monopoly power are usually impossible to come by 1 as a consequence the indirect approach of taking the observed value of monopoly rents as indicative of the unobserved value of the resources expended in rent seeking is quite generally adopted in approaches to evaluation of the social cost of such activity

orchestrating rent seeking contests contests have different sometimes quite complex organisational structures in particular while most of the existing literature focusses on simultaneous contests multistage contests are also quite frequently encountered this paper seeks to provide a rationale for the latter by endogenising the choice of a contest structure which is made by an organiser of a contest interested in maximising the efforts expended by the contenders

an experimental investigation of efficient rent seeking the debate about the measurement of the amount of rent dissipated in rent seeking activities is unable to be answered by observations from the naturally occurring environment current theoretical investigations have indicated that a number of factors will affect the amount of rent that can be assumed to be dissipated by rent seeking the theory of efficient rent seeking predicts that the number of rent seekers their risk posture their ability to enter and exit the rent seeking process and the manner in which the probability of receiving a rent is determined will affect the amount of rent that is dissipated

analysing distributed processes of provision and innovation the vast majority of products i e goods and services are provided to the consumer through several co ordinated and contributing agents acting together this paper is concerned with improving our understanding of processes of provision and innovation that involve several contributing and co ordinated agents firms or organizations the distributedness of provision and innovation varies in scale and takes a variety of dynamic forms or modes and their analysis brings to the fore the significance of dependency and asymmetric power relations between classes of economic agent the approach thereby opens up considerations on distributed innovation beyond those addressed by the systems of innovation perspectives

contest efforts in light of behavioural considerations this study shows that distortion of probabilities is a possible reason for rent under dissipation incontests with relatively small number of participants such distortion may also result however inover dissipation of the contested rent focusing on contests with homogeneous contestants and thecommonly studied contest success function our main results clarify under what circumstances i rents are more under dissipated relative to the standard situation where probabilities are notdistorted ii rents are under dissipated yet less intensely relative to the standard situation whereprobabilities are not distorted iii rents are over dissipated and iv the contest does not possess asymmetric interior equilibrium in pure strategies

inter team contests with power differential abstract we investigate the impact of asymmetry on behavior in inter team contests in asymmetric environments one team has a greater probability of winning given the same contribution level unfair contests or has a lower cost of contributing uneven contests we explore how such asymmetries impact behavior asking how being advantaged or disadvantaged influences contributions we find both advantaged and disadvantaged teams contribute much more than theory predicts but in such a way that ex post winning probabilities of the contests are consistent with theoretical predictions at the individual level contributions are predicted by beliefs about own team and opponent team contributions the determinants of contribution by members of the disadvantaged team differ depending on the nature of asymmetry contributions by the disadvantaged team members are responsive to beliefs about contribution by opponents in unfair contests while in uneven contests they are responsive to beliefs about the contribution by teammates

risk aversion and rent seeking an extension and some experimental evidence theoretical investigations indicate that the risk attitudes of individuals will effect the amount of rent that can be assumed to be dissipated by rent seeking activities following this line of investigation we extend hillman and katz s work to a small numbers case and demonstrate that the degree to which a monopoly rent is dissipated is dependent upon the structure of the risk attitudes of two risk averse individuals

overall review of distributed energy development in china status quo barriers and solutions abstract as a good power supplement form of super power and large scale energy base distributed energy has the characteristics of less investment and flexible power generation facing with the double pressure of the sustainable development of energy use and environmental protection it has become an efficient solution to meet the demand of load growth reduce environmental pollution and improve the comprehensive utilization of energy and the reliability of power supply however the development of distributed energy starts relatively late in china and confronts many difficulties so this paper analyzes the present development situation and existing problems of the distributed energy in china then it elaborates from the aspects of policies and regulations technical specifications price policy and grid interconnection codes at last this paper puts forward relevant policy suggestions of the guarantee mechanism of distributed energy this paper argues that with the attention of the development of distributed energy increasing a series of policies to promote the construction and interconnection of distributed energy will be introduced and distributed energy will get scaled development in china