u s federal budget deficits and gramm rudman hollings the u s federal budget deficits averaged about 1 percent of gnp in the 1960s about 2 percent of gnp in the 1970s and then rose to a peak of 5 5 percent of gnp in the four bad years of fiscal 1983 to fiscal 1986 by fiscal 1989 they had fallen back to 2 9 percent of gnp and under present legislation they are now projected to drop to about 1 5 percent of gnp by 1994 when deficits were at their peak before the start of the budget bargain for fiscal 1987 the first budget to show any sizeable deficit reduction the country passed the grammrudman hollings grh deficit control law this law has been revised and amended over time but it is still operating in roughly its initial form superficially the numbers given above suggest that it must be working pretty well moreover in many ways grh was written to respond to the standard criticisms of deficit constraint legislation it did not call for abrupt cuts in deficits but rather gradual declines it was legislative and flexible rather than constitutional and rigid yet just as the country is on the verge of finally getting its deficits under control the legislation is coming under vicious attack including even that of one of its sponsors senator hollings why should such an apparently successful piece of legislation be so widely scorned in this paper i take on this question i first illustrate how grh was intended to operate with a simple indifference curve model and use this model to see what kinds of changes should have occurred in budget bargains and spending patterns then i look for these changes by comparing numbers from the pre grh era 1983 86 with those from the post grh era 1987 89 i also identify other sources of improvement in budgetary position from the earlier to the later period this numerical comparison suggests that the direct effects of grh played a very minor role in the improvement in the u s budgetary position though it seems likely that difficult to evaluate indirect effects were much more significant

finance and the sources of growth at various stages of economic development this article studies the effects of financial development on the sources of growth in different groups of countries recent theoretical work shows that financial development may affect productivity and capital accumulation in different ways in industrial versus developing countries this hypothesis is tested with panel data from 74 countries using gmm dynamic panel techniques results are consistent with the hypothesis finance has a strong positive influence on productivity growth primarily in more developed economies in less developed economies the effect of finance on output growth occurs primarily through capital accumulation jel o4 g1

financial intermediary coalitions abstract in this article an environment in which the investment opportunities of agents are private information is studied and it is shown that financial intermediaries arise endogenously within that environment it is established that financial intermediaries are part of an efficient arrangement in the sense that they are needed to support the authors private information core allocations these intermediaries which are coalitions of agents exhibit the following characteristics in equilibrium they borrow from and lend to large groups of agents they produce information about investment projects and they issue claims that have different state contingent payoffs than claims issued by ultimate borrowers

banking development socioeconomic structure and income inequality abstract using rich unique data from the italian local credit markets provinces this paper investigates the impact of local banking development on income inequality and the role of the socioeconomic structure in this link exploiting the italian historical banking regulation to instrument for the local presence of bank branches we find that local banking development mitigates income inequality however the finance inequality nexus manifests itself only in relatively advanced areas when we study the structural channels of influence we uncover evidence that banking development can reduce inequality by affecting geographical mobility and urbanization while it has modest effects through the development of material infrastructures and human capital

financial intermediation and endogenous growth an endogenous growth model with multiple assets is developed agents who face random future liquidity needs accumulate capital and a liquid but unproductive asset the effects of introducing financial intermediation into this environment are considered conditions are provided under which the introduction of intermediaries shifts the composition of savings toward capital causing intermediation to be growth promoting in addition intermediaries generally reduce socially unnecessary capital liquidation again tending to promote growth

a brain gain with a brain drain abstract we study human capital depletion and formation in an economy open to out migration as opposed to an economy which is closed under the assumption of asymmetric information the enlarged opportunities and the associated different structure of incentives can give rise to a brain gain in conjunction with a brain drain migration by high skill members of its workforce notwithstanding the home country can end up with a higher average level of human capital per worker

consumers and the brain drain product and process design and the gains from emigration abstract we consider the welfare effects of skilled worker emigration in a context where skilled labor plays a role in product or process design we show such emigration can benefit the residents left behind even when consumers tastes exhibit a form of home bias this is because emigration improves the design of goods designed by skilled emigrants but consumed in the sending country in contrast to existing models of beneficial brain drain our results do not require agglomeration economies education related externalities remittances return migration or an emigration lottery instead they are driven purely by differences in market size that induce skilled emigrants to design better products or production processes abroad than at home

symposium on the budget deficit when ronald reagan assumed the presidency in 1981 the federal government s outstanding gross debt amounted to 909 billion or 33 3 percent of gnp by the end of 1987 as a consequence of federal budget deficits averaging 4 5 percent of gnp between 1981 and 1987 the ratio of debt to gnp had risen to 51 8 percent in contrast during the period between 1947 and 1981 the federal deficit only once exceeded 4 percent of gnp the net international investment position of the united states also deteriorated dramatically during the reagan years in 1981 the u s was a net international lender however a succession of increasingly large deficits in the current account of the u s balance of payments between 1982 and 1988 caused the united states to switch from creditor to debtor status u s net international indebtedness at the end of 1987 is estimated at 368 billion in the view of most of the nation s economists these developments are profoundly disturbing harvard economist benjamin friedman 1988 summarizes the majority opinion when he writes we are living well by running up our debt and selling off our assets america has thrown itself a party and billed the tab to the future the costs which are only beginning to come due will include a lower standard of living for individual americans and reduced american influence and importance in world affairs is the ballooning federal budget deficit a serious economic problem the papers in this symposium provide four perspectives on this issue robert barro and robert eisner disagree sharply with the majority opinion concerning deficits in contrast edward gramlich and douglas bernheim are more sympathetic to the view that budget deficits lower national saving and thus contribute to a reduction in future living standards

budget deficits and national saving are politicians exogenous during the thirty five year period following world war ii the federal budget deficit averaged less than one percent of net national product never once exceeding five percent for the five year period from 1982 86 the budget deficit never once fell below five percent of net national product there have been some modest cutbacks recently and the deficit is likely to fall to about four percent of net national product in 1988 further declines are now projected in the congressional budget office 1988 baseline forecast of the implications of present policies but both 1988 presidential candidates suggested many more policies that would increase than decrease the deficit these numbers indicate that after years of relative abstinence the united states has experimented with persistent budget deficits on a rather massive scale in the 1980s economists have generally been quite critical of this fiscal policy though there are at least three respectable minority views arguing that federal deficits are not so bad and quite possibly better than likely corrective measures the rationale for economists general opposition comes from those who hold what is called the neoclassical view of deficits according to this view if the united states should be treated as a closed economy persistent deficits will raise interest rates and lower investment if the united states should be treated as a small open economy persistent deficits will leave real interest rates and investment unchanged but the drop in national saving would be financed by higher foreign borrowing accomplished through a rise in the dollar and a drop in net exports either way net national saving falls and consumption rises at the expense of some combination of investment and net exports as a result living standards are higher in the present but lower in the future compared to what they would be in a world of no deficits

are financial development and trade openness complements or substitutes this article studies the long and short run relationships between financial development and trade openness using the pooled mean group estimator of pesaran shin and smith 1999 for unbalanced panel data for 87 countries over the 1960 2005 period our empirical results indicate that long run complementarity between financial development and trade openness coexists with short run substitutionarity between the two policy variables but when splitting the data into oecd and non oecd country groups this finding can be observed only in non oecd countries for oecd countries financial development has negligible effects on trade in addition we find nonlinearity in the relationship in that long run responses of trade decrease with financial development the article further finds coexistence of negative trade effects of financial fragility and positive trade impacts of financial depth

deficits money and inflation abstract this paper examines the interrelationships between monetary and fiscal policy specifically it seeks to determine whether government budget deficits influence monetary growth using a money supply model originally developed by barro we find that deficits have had a significant impact on the growth of the u s money supply throughout most of the period since 1961 such a relationship need not always hold it depends on whether government deficits place upward pressure on interest rates and whether the central bank monetizes the debt in an effort to stabilize interest rates

brain drain and human capital formation in developing countries winners and losers using new data on emigration rates by education level we examine the impact of brain drain migration on human capital formation in developing countries we find evidence of a positive effect of skilled migration prospects on gross human capital formation in a cross section of 127 countries for each country of the sample we then estimate the net effect of the brain drain using counterfactual simulations countries combining relatively low levels of human capital and low emigration rates are shown to experience a beneficial brain drain and conversely there are more losers than winners and the former tend to lose relatively more than what the latter gain

encouraging private sector research for tropical agriculture summary agricultural needs in poor tropical countries differ significantly from those in temperate rich countries yet little agricultural research is performed on products for the tropics private research is particularly concentrated in rich countries this is a result of significant failures in the market for research and development r d in particular the difficulty of preventing the resale of seed in developing countries to encourage private r d in tropical agriculture traditional funding of research may be usefully supplemented by a commitment to reward developers of specific new agricultural technologies rewards tied to adoption may be especially useful in increasing up take an illustration of how a commitment to reward developers of new agricultural technologies might work is provided

migration and the skill composition of the labour force the impact of trade liberalization in ldcs the purpose of this paper is to shed some light on the conditions under which trade liberalization in the developing countries is likely to cause an increase or a decrease in out migration we also examine the impact of trade liberalization on the skill composition of migration and of the labour force for this purpose we explicitly incorporate four additional features in the heckscher ohlin model heterogeneity of labour skills international migration migration costs and constraints on financing migration excerpt summary in fre

on government deficits and speculation the authors consider a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with a representative consumer investor and two producing firms all the assets are real investments of capital into productive processes government expenditures taxes and money financing are explicitly incorporated the holding of money is modeled through a cash in advance constraint fundamental budget deficits generated by flat rate expenditure and income tax rules can be financed by printing money or randomly levying temporary wealth taxes modeled as a poisson process characterization and properties of the balanced budget rational expectations equilibrium are analyzed it is shown that government may promote growth by adjusting the fundamental deficit copyright 1990 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

deficits and inflation an open economy model of the united states the deficit debate is a recurring theme in academic and political circles the controversy is over the effect of deficits on inflation and interest rates the existing body of empirical evidence does not resolve the controversy this paper focuses on the inflationary impact of deficits the model used is derived from a comprehensive is lm analysis which incorporates a foreign trade sector and a general price adoptive expectation adjustment mechanism we test the model using time series data for the united states from our results we conclude that nia deficits have no significant bearing on the rate of inflation

the ricardian approach to budget deficits persistent budget deficits have increased economists interest in theories and evidence about fiscal policy this paper develops the ricardian approach and contrasts it with standard models the discussion considers from major theoretical objections to ricardian equivalence finite lifetimes imperfect capital markets uncertainty about future taxes and incomes and the distorting effects of taxation the paper then considers empirical evidence on interest rates consumption and saving and current account deficits the conclusion is that the ricardian approach is a useful first order approximation and that this approach will probably become the benchmark model for assessing fiscal policy this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

international protection of intellectual property corrigendum in our recent paper grossman and lai 2004 we studied the incentives that governments have to protect intellectual property in a trading world economy we considered a world economy with ongoing innovation in two or more countries that differ in market size and in their capacity for innovation in section iv we compared the strength of patent protection in an efficient world agreement with harmonized rates of protection to the strength of patent protection in a nash equilibrium with policies chosen by two welfaremaximizing governments we claimed in proposition 5 that as long as the elasticity of substitution between human capital and labor in the research activity is no greater than one then efficient harmonization requires a strengthening of patent protection in both the north and the south and that the north must gain while the south may gain or lose unfortunately there was an error in our proof it is correct that for all elasticities of substitution no greater than one 0 efficient harmonization requires a strengthening of patent protection in the south and in the world as a whole moreover patent protection in the north must be stronger in an efficient agreement with harmonization than in the nash equilibrium if the elasticity of substitution between human capital and labor in r d is equal to one 0 however if the elasticity of substitution between labor and human capital is less than one efficient harmonization may require a weakening of patent protection in the north when mn ms hn hs and 0 a sufficient condition for the north to gain from efficient harmonization is hn hs mn ms

education economic growth and brain drain abstract this paper constructs a two sector overlapping generations model of endogenous growth to study the effects of brain drain on growth education and income distribution it is shown that brain drain reduces the economic growth rate and generally hurts the non emigrants through the static income distributional effects and the dynamic damage on economic growth and human capital accumulation if the initial rate of human capital accumulation is relatively low brain drain could deteriorate both the sum of discounted income and lifetime discounted utility of a representative non emigrant the government can choose to spend more on education to lessen the detrimental growth effects of brain drain

financial development by learning abstract this paper analyzes financial development driven by accumulation of information through learning by doing financial intermediaries discover good investment opportunities by making loans to industrial projects they thereby accumulate information that improves the allocation of savings an initial equilibrium with poor information and thus no industrial investment may trap the economy in financial underdevelopment such a trap is informational and can be overcome by the remedies that resolve informational externality

bidding for brains intellectual property rights and the international migration of knowledge workers we introduce international mobility of knowledge workers into a model of nash equilibrium ipr policy choice among countries we show that governments have incentives to use iprs in a bidding war for global talent resulting in nash equilibrium iprs that can be too high rather than too low from a global welfare perspective these incentives become stronger as developing countries grow in size and wealth thus allowing them to prevent the poaching of their brains by larger wealthier markets

fiscal deficits and long term interest rates further evidence from annual data much debate has recently centered on the popular view that large u s budget deficits financed by the sale of bonds cause high interest rates if valid this view implies that deficits crowd out efficient private investment and adversely affect economic growth however bailey 2 and barro 3 have challenged this conventional view on theoretical grounds based on the ricardian equivalence proposition bailey and barro contend that rational economic agents interpret government deficits as postponed tax liabilities and thus will have no effects on private wealth or interest rates such theoretical ambiguity in regards to the impact of budget deficits has also been matched by an equally conflicting empirical evidence for example barth iden and russek 4 deleeuw and holloway 8 hutchison and pyle 20 makin 24 makin and tanzi 25 and zahid 35 have found a positive and significant effect of deficits on interest rates on the other hand evans 11 12 13 hoelscher 17 motley 28 and plosser 29 30 have all failed to find any systematic support for a significant positive impact of deficits on interest rates it should be observed that the above empirical studies have employed either monthly or quarterly data however some researchers e g hoelscher 18 have recently charged that monthly or quarterly data bias the results in favor of finding no significant linkage between deficits and interest rates they reasoned that portfolio adjustment lags are too long for monthly or even quarterly observations to reflect the actual correlation between deficits and interest rates to eliminate this problem of periodicity annual data was instead advocated 2 using annual data hoelscher 18 concluded that deficits have caused positive and significant changes in long term interest rates in the united states

intellectual property rights licensing and innovation in an endogenous product cycle model abstract we develop a dynamic general equilibrium model of the product cycle to study the effects of stronger intellectual property rights iprs in the south on the incentives of firms in the north to innovate and to license advanced technologies innovation and licensing are random processes requiring resources stronger iprs increase the licensor s share of rents and reduce the costs of licensing contracts thus the returns to both licensing and innovation would rise while additional resources would be available for r d in consequence innovation and technology transfer would rise however the effect of stronger iprs on relative wages between regions is ambiguous

distance to the frontier and the perception of innovation barriers across european countries abstract barriers to innovation have mainly been studied in a single country context this paper studies differences in the perception of innovation barriers between innovative and non innovative firms for 18 eu countries the countries are grouped by their distance to the technological frontier using community innovation surveys for the years 2002 2004 and 2004 2006 the results show that knowledge barriers related to the availability of skilled labour innovation partners and technological knowledge are more important for firms located in countries close to the frontier while the opposite is true regarding the availability of external finance moreover while the share of innovators decreases with the distance to the technological frontier the share of firms not interested or in no need of innovation increases this is consistent with the idea that as firms approach the technological frontier they increasingly need to focus on the creation of own knowledge and the adoption of innovation based growth strategies to stay competitive

inflation and government deficits there is a pronounced positive correlation of inflation andgovernment deficits in the united states since world war ii the purpose of this paper is to test the three leading explanationsof this correlation these three explanations are a a deficitincreases prices through a wealth effect b a deficit results inthe federal reserve purchasing debt thus increasing the moneysupply and prices and c expected inflation increases the deficit which is the change in the nominal value of bonds no supportis found for either of the first two hypotheses the results indi cate that expected government deficits have no significance forfuture inflation since world war ii the united states has experienced large federal government deficits and a sustained peacetime inflation three differentconnections between the deficits and inflation are prominent in theliterature the most direct connection between government deficits and inflationis that by increasing the real value of outstanding bonds and perceived netwealth a deficit can raise total spending and the price level this connec tion is also the most long standing and is suggested by metzler 1951 andpatinkin 1965 for example monetarists generally and buchanan and wagner 1977 in particularhave emphasized a different link between deficits and inflation they sug gest that the federal reserve purchases government bonds when the trea sury sells bonds thus increasing high powered money the money supply and the price level the federal reserve might behave this way for exam ple because it is attempting to hold down interest rates on governmentsecurities when deficits occur recently barro 1978 1979 has put forward a hypothesis that deficitsare a result of inflation rather than inflation being a result of deficits thegovernment deficit is the change in the nominal value of outstanding gov ernment bonds if the anticipated inflation rate increases then the nomi nal value of bonds must increase i e the government will run a deficit tokeep the same anticipated real amount of bonds all three of these possible connections between government deficitsand inflation are consistent with the observed positive correlation of defi cits and inflation the implications however are strikingly different con

long run income and interest elasticities of money demand in the united states econometric techniques designed to accommodate nonstationary data are used to reexamine the stability of interest and income elasticities of money demand in the united states estimates based on postwar monthly data reveal a stable relationship between m1 velocity and various measures of interest rates that proxy the opportunity cost of holding money balances tests for the existence of cointegration and methods used to estimate the income and interest elasticities are based on procedures prescribed by soren johansen 1988 corresponding error correction estimates offer insight as to the dynamics of the process that maintains the equilibrium relation between velocity and interest rates copyright 1991 by mit press

can a brain drain be good for growth in the source economy this paper analyzes the interaction between income distribution human capital accumulation and migration it shows that when migration is not a certainty a brain drain may increase average productivity and equality in the source economy even though average productivity is a positive function of past average levels of human capital in an economy it is also shown how the temporary possibility of emigration may permanently increase the average level of productivity of an economy

experimental tests of ricardian equivalence this study employs laboratory experiments to test aspects of ricardian equivalence an overlapping generations model forms the basis of the experimental design whenever ricardian equivalence predicts a positive bequest outcomes close to those predicted occur after allowance for learning observed deviations from ricardian equilibrium are small but biased in a keynesian direction changes in bequests do not fully offset changes in government debt the imposition of a binding nonnegativity constraint on bequests produces the predicted neoclassical behavior the cost to the players of deviations from the theoretical equilibrium is apparently an important determinant of the variability of observed deviations

budget deficits rhetoric and reality w v t hatever the real or imagined ills of the economy the news media most politicians and a fair proportion of the economics profession are quick to point to the culprit the budget deficit no matter that few appear to know or care precisely what deficit they are talking about or how it is measured no matter that few bother to explain in terms of a relevant model just how government deficits may be expected to impact the economy no matter that few offer any empirical data to sustain their judgments so budget deficits cause inflation budget deficits raise interest rates budget deficits bring on the trade deficits budget deficits crowd out investment budget deficits are an irresponsible mortgage on the future and budget deficits caused the october 1987 stock market crash and now threaten further financial cataclysms is there truth in any of these assertions or does it all depend budget deficits do matter and their effects contrary to barro s ricardian equivalence theorem can be substantial as most economists have recognized for at least half a century budget deficits can however be too small as well as too large to know which you have to measure them right and you have to analyze their role in the world in which we live pure walrasian and rational expectation market clearing models may prove more useful for academic advancement than for promotion of economic health i need not repeat many of the objections to the equivalence theorem raised by bernheim and gramlich and addressed by barro in this symposium however there is

reform in eastern europe how can the new governments of eastern europe succeed in moving from centrally planned to freemarket economies this incisive report identifies and describes the major policy choices to be made and discusses what will work and what will not reform in eastern europe provides a comprehensive easily read statement of reform policy that stands in the mainstream of modern western economics based on their experience with stabilization policies in other countries the authors show how eastern europe can reduce unemployment during the painful adjustment process create effective and socially acceptable mechanisms to subject enterprises to market discipline and replace barter trade under cmea with market based international trade

financial intermediation and delegated monitoring this paper develops a theory of financial intermediation based on minimizing the cost of monitoring information which is useful for resolving incentive problems between borrowers and lenders it presents a characterization of the costs of providing incentives for delegated monitoring by a financial intermediary diversification within an intermediary serves to reduce these costs even in a risk neutral economy the paper presents some more general analysis of the effect of diversification on resolving incentive problems in the environment assumed in the model debt contracts with costly bankruptcy are shown to be optimal the analysis has implications for the portfolio structure and capital structure of intermediaries

government debt government spending and private sector behavior a current period tax reduction financed by issuing government debt shifts the timing of tax collection from the current period to the future if the future taxes implied by government debt are not fully perceived and discounted by the private sector there will be a net wealth effect that increases private sector consumption thus reducing capital accumulation and growth if on the other hand the implied future taxes are perceived and discounted by the private sector the current period tax reduction will be used to increase private saving to pay for the future taxes and government debt will be absorbed without any real effects on the economy the effects of government spending financed by current period taxation also depend upon private sector perceptions 2 if the benefits of government spending are ignored private sector consumption will decrease in accordance with the reduction in permanent disposable income to the extent that government spending is on consumption type goods that are perceived as substitutes for privately provided consumption goods there will be a relatively greater reduction in private sector consumption to the extent that government spending is on investment type goods yielding future goods and services that are perceived as substitutes for future privately provided consumption goods there will be a relatively smaller reduction in private sector consumption the standard approach to modeling private sector consumption saving behavior involves a rather asymmetric set of assumptions as to how the private sector perceives the various elements of government fiscal policy 3 current period taxes are assumed to be fully perceived but current period government spending is implicitly assumed to be completely ignored by the private sector in considering permanent personal disposable income the private sector is assumed to be forward looking in its assessment of income and taxation the stock of government debt is nevertheless included as part of the stock of private wealth the implicit assumption associate professor of economics graduate school of business university of chicago 1101 east 58th street chicago il 60637 i thank eugene fama levis kochin michael mussa paul evans and an anonymous referee for helpful comments i am particularly grateful to daniel benjamin for contributing many hours of discussion and laura lahaye who was a research assistant and valuable adviser on earlier drafts the theoretical debate on the burden of the debt has been long standing gerald o driscoll 1977 documents ricardo s nineteenth century position robert barro 1974 reopened the debate by introducing the fundamental issue of intergenerational transfers also discussed in merton miller and charles upton 1974 the empirical side of the debate was initiated by levis kochin s 1974 attempt to test for the effects of deficits on consumption and by martin feldstein s 1974 attempt to test for the effects of social security wealth on consumption other empirical contributions include jess yawitz and laurence meyer 1976 myself 1978 and j earnest tanner 1978 1979 with respect to the effects of government deficits and debt and barro 1978 michael darby 1979 and dean leimer and selig lesnoy 1982 with respect to social security wealth see also interesting recent papers by john seater 1982 who generates detailed tests of the effects of deficits and debt on consumption charles plosser 1982 who explores the effects of government spending and debt shocks on interest rates and feldstein 1982 who attempts tests similar to some in this paper see fn 29 2martin bailey s 1962 1971 development of the effects of government spending on private consumption and aggregate economic activity is the seminal contribution paul david and john scadding 1974 extend bailey s ideas and provide some supporting empirical evidence more recently willem buiter 1977 and myself 1978 developed models based on bailey s earlier work barro 1981 has an interesting paper on related issues see also david aschauer 1982 3the standard approach incorporates fiscal policy through the concept of personal disposable income and by including the stock of government debt as part of personal wealth see for example the empirical specification of albert ando and franco modigliani 1963 which has been the basis of most empirical consumption studies since and feldstein 1974 for one of the more influential papers based on the ando modigliani specification

financial development growth and the distribution of income a paradigm is presented in which both the extent of financial intermediation and the rate of economic growth are endogenously determined financial intermediation promotes growth because it allows a higher rate of return to be earned on capital and growth in turn provides the means to implement costly financial structures thus financial intermediation and economic growth are inextricably linked in accord with the goldsmith mckinnon shaw view on economic development the model also generates a development cycle reminiscent of the kuznet hypothesis in particular in the transition from a primitive slow growing economy to a developed fast growing one a nation passes through a stage in which the distribution of wealth across the rich and poor widens

intellectual property rights and quality improvement this paper explores why theories about the effects of intellectual property rights ipr protection on foreign direct investment fdi and innovation have reached mixed conclusions in our model northern firms innovate to improve the quality of existing products and may later shift production to the south through fdi southern firms may then imitate the products of multinationals we find that imitation can increase fdi and innovation for quality improvements whereas the opposite occurs when innovators develop new varieties hence stronger ipr protection by reducing imitation may shift innovation away from improvements in existing products toward development of new products

the north s intellectual property rights standard for the south abstract we build a multi sectoral north south trade model to analyze international intellectual property rights ipr protection by comparing the nash equilibrium ipr protection standard of the south the developing countries with that of the north the developed countries we find that the former is naturally weaker than the latter moreover we show that both regions can gain from an agreement that requires the south to harmonize its ipr standards with those of the north and the north to liberalize its traditional goods market this demonstrates the merits of multi sectoral negotiations in the gatt wto

public debts and fiscal politics how to decide the phenomenal growth in our public deficits over the past twenty years is a matter of public and professional concern see symposium 1989 while this concern may indeed be well founded particularly given current deficit levels public deficits are not always bad certainly in times of deep recessions short term deficit financing can stimulate aggregate demand increase national income and reduce unemployment in a keynesian fashion see richard startz 1989 second long term deficit financing may be needed to sustain a long term path of optimal consumption see peter diamond 1965 third public deficits including pay as yougo social security can offer welfare gains for significant subsets of consumers who have been liquidity constrained r glenn hubbard and kenneth judd 1986 who have been unable to purchase indexed private annuities alan blinder 1988 or who have been unable to sufficiently diversify their investment portfolios away from human capital robert merton 1983 finally robert barro 1979 has argued that public deficits may be an important policy instrument to insure intertemporal welfare maximization when public expenditures are stochastic and public taxes are economically inefficient taxes can be smoothed to reduce the lifetime excess burden of public financing the concern today is not that we have deficits but rather that we may be overdoing a good thing if this is the issue then we need to ask why and what can be done about it this is my agenda here i the political economy of recent deficits

infrastructure finance and industrial takeoff in england that financial matters did not constrain industrial takeoff in the uk is generally accepted in the historical literature in contrast contemporary empirical analyses have found evidence that financial development can be a causal determinant of economic growth we look to reconcile these findings by concentrating on a particular aspect of industrializing uk where inefficiencies in finance could have had bite the finance of physical infrastructures we document the historical record and develop the importance of spatial disaggregation and spillovers in both technological and financial development we develop a simple model that captures the nature of infrastructure finance within a theory of endogenous growth where financial costs are endogenous we argue that the conception of the finance growth nexus as a largely static aggregative phenomenon misses out a good deal of complexity and we relate that complexity to a number of implications for regulation of both financial systems and the emergence of infrastructures

the theory of international factor flows the basic model abstract the basic model used to discuss the simultaneous international flow of labor and capital is a one commodity model in which a common technology is shared between countries the ramaswami result wherein an optimal restriction of labor inflows is superior to an optimal restriction on capital outflows for a capital abundant country is extended to reveal that optimality requires inflows of both factors box diagrams and iso welfare contours are used to show how optimal policy rankings are reversed if foreign labor must be paid higher home wages

how trade related are intellectual property rights abstract there is little empirical evidence about whether differing international levels of patent protection influence trade flows if a nation strengthens its patent laws it could experience higher or lower imports we specify an empirical model in which deviations of bilateral sectoral imports from anticipated levels are related to income trade barriers and patent laws patent regulations in the importing country are corrected for endogeneity through the use of instrumental variables the results of the final equations indicate that increasing patent protection has a positive impact on bilateral manufacturing imports into both small and large developing economies

developing science scientific performance and brain drains in the developing world abstract establishing a strong scientific community is important as countries develop and requires both producing and retaining of important scientists we show that developing countries produce a sizeable number of important scientists but that they experience a tremendous brain drain education levels population and per capita gdp are positively related to the number of important scientists born in and staying in a country our analysis indicates that democracy and urbanization are associated with the production of more important scientists although democracy is associated with more out migration

international protection of intellectual property we study the incentives that governments have to protect intellectual property in a trading world economy we consider a world economy with ongoing innovation in two countries that differ in market size and in their capacities for innovation after describing the determination of national patent policies in a non cooperative regime of patent protection we ask why is intellectual property better protected in the north than in the south we also study international patent agreements by deriving the properties of an efficient global regime of patent protection and asking whether harmonization of patent policies is necessary or sufficient for global efficiency jel o34 f13 during the 1980 s and early 1990 s the united states and several european countries expressed strong dissatisfaction with what they deemed to be inadequate protection of intellectual property in many developing countries the developed countries made the upgrading of intellectual property rights iprs one of their highest priorities for the uruguay round of trade talks their efforts bore fruit in the agreement on traderelated aspects of intellectual property rights trips which was approved as part of the final act of the uruguay round trips establishes minimum standards of protection for several categories of intellectual property for example in the area of new technology it essentially harmonizes

deficits money and inflation comment abstract this paper re examines the fiscal policy money growth linkage analysed by hamburger zwick 1981 in this journal newly revised national income accounts data are employed unlike hamburger zwick we do not find any strong evidence of a positive federal budget deficit money growth relationship over the period 1961 1974 when the estimation period is extended to 1976 and then to 1978 the results suggest no relationship between deficits and money growth

does one size fit all a reexamination of the finance and growth relationship abstract recent research has found a strong positive effect of a country s financial development on economic growth we propose that this relationship may vary according to the level of financial development divided in three regions in the low region countries with very low levels of financial development additional improvements in financial markets have an uncertain effect on growth in the intermediate region financial development has a large positive effect on growth finally in the high region the effect is positive but smaller we examine a panel of 74 countries using generalized method of moments gmm dynamic panel techniques and find support for the different regions

contracts intellectual property rights and multinational investment in developing countries abstract the policy debate between multinational firms favoring strong contract law and host country governments who often oppose such protection motivates the paper local agents managers learn the multinational s technology and can defect to start a rival firm contract enforcement including binding the multinational itself makes the multinational better off outcomes for the host country are more complex depending on mode switches induced by enforcement if enforcement induces the multinational to switch from exporting to local production welfare improves if local production was occurring anyway enforcement may result in the loss of rents to local agents and lower welfare

government financing decisions and asset returns abstract this paper presents an empirical investigation of the relation between government financing decisions and asset returns in particular the focus is on whether a substitution of debt financing for tax financing of a given level of expenditures is associated with an increase in interest rates the paper brings a different perspective to empirical investigations of government fiscal policies by examining the response of asset prices in an efficient capital market to such policies rather than focusing on aggregate consumption behavior the results are consistent with the idea that asset prices are unrelated to how the government finances its expenditures the results however also indicate that the capital market is not indifferent with respect to the level of government expenditures as higher interest rates are associated with increases in government purchases

a neoclassical perspective on budget deficits i n the 1988 presidential campaign virtually every serious candidate spoke of the urgent need to trim government budget deficits public opinion polls have identified federal deficits as a key economic issue second only to unemployment while many economists are relieved by what they perceive to be a long overdue political response to a critical economic problem others regard the fuss as much ado about nothing it is indeed remarkable that economists can disagree so severely over an issue which commands such a uniform reaction from laymen of widely different ideologies and political affiliations generally speaking there are three schools of thought concerning the economic effects of budget deficits neoclassical keynesian and ricardian before proceeding further it is useful to review the basic structure and implications of each paradigm the neoclassical paradigm envisions farsighted individuals planning consumption over their own life cycles budget deficits raise total lifetime consumption by shifting taxes to subsequent generations if economic resources are fully employed increased consumption necessarily implies decreased saving interest rates must then rise to bring capital markets into balance thus persistent deficits crowd out private capital accumulation in the current economic environment most economists would agree that these consequences would be highly detrimental