optimal state dependent rules credibility and inflation inertia abstract we use a state dependent model where pricing rules are optimal to examine the costs of a money based disinflation under various assumptions about the credibility of the policy change our analysis allows us to relate actual credibility and future inflation inertia to the asymmetry of the price deviation distribution an important implication of our state dependent setting is that disinflation can be attained without substantial cost even in a situation of low credibility provided that a mechanism of price alignment eliminates the asymmetry of the price deviation distribution we also develop an analytical framework for analyzing intermediate imperfect credibility cases

the consequences of legal minimum wages in honduras summary minimum wage policies are implemented in most developing countries so understanding their consequences is critical to determine their effectiveness this paper quantifies the labor market and poverty effects of honduran minimum wages from 2005 to 2012 using 13 household surveys as repeated cross sections i estimate the net effects of minimum wage hikes using variation from annual reforms to multiple minimum wages a 60 increase and changes in the number of minimum wage categories evidence shows that employers are partially complying with minimum wage laws and respond to hikes by increasing their level of non compliance higher minimum wages reduce covered formal employment and increase uncovered informal employment formal sector wages increase but greater labor supply in the informal sector leads to a negative net effect on wages this last result is often empirically ambiguous although consistent with the dual sector minimum wage model i find no evidence that minimum wages reduce extreme or moderate poverty

can labor market policies reduce deaths of despair do minimum wages and the earned income tax credit eitc mitigate rising deaths of despair we leverage state variation in these policies over time to estimate event study and difference in differences models of deaths due to drug overdose suicide and alcohol related causes our causal models find no significant effects on drug or alcohol related mortality but do find significant reductions in non drug suicides a 10 percent minimum wage increase reduces non drug suicides among low educated adults by 2 7 percent and the comparable eitc figure is 3 0 percent placebo tests and event study models support our causal research design increasing both policies by 10 percent would likely prevent a combined total of more than 700 suicides each year

understanding responses to supply chain disruptions insights from information processing and resource dependence perspectives why how and under what conditions do firms respond to supply chain disruptions these are important questions given that firms around the world are increasingly exposed to disruptions that impede their supply chain relationships and associated operations this study applies information processing and resource dependence perspectives to identify the repertoire of strategic responses to supply chain disruptions and to devise and test a model that explains the occurrence of the alternative responses the findings suggest that these responses are shaped by the stability motive and by interpretative postures which evolve from past experiences

reinterpreting the role of inflation in politico economic models the author attempting to analyze the interplay between politics and economics is faced with a large number of problems ranging from an always too small and idiosyncratic data set to the lack of any generally accepted theory of the process which has testable implications my aims have been 1 to show that past studies have typically treated inflation in an extremely naive way disregarding the fact that it may have political pluses if unanticipated and 2 to test the sensitivity of established formulations to what i believe is the more useful view of voter behavior given in model ii since model i and model ii represent polar extremes of amnesiac and eidetic behavior tests of intermediate lag structures are clearly in order because of administration peculiarities however lost data points will pose a serious problem

did unilateral divorce laws raise divorce rates a reconciliation and new results application of the coase theorem to marital bargaining suggests that shifting from a consent divorce regime to no fault unilateral divorce laws should not affect divorce rates each iteration of the empirical literature examining the evolution of divorce rates across us states has yielded different conclusions about the effects of divorce law liberalization i show that these results reflect a failure to jointly consider both the political endogeneity of these divorce laws and the dynamic response of divorce rates to a shock to the political regime taking explicit account of the dynamic response of divorce rates to the policy shock i find that liberalized divorce laws caused a discernible rise in divorce rates for about a decade but that this increase was substantially reversed over the next decade that said this increase explains very little of the rise in the divorce rate over the past half century both administrative data on the flow of new divorces and measures of the stock of divorcees from the census support this conclusion these results are suggestive of spouses bargaining within marriage with an eye to their partner s divorce threat

the minimum wage in formal and informal sectors evidence from an inflation shock abstract i estimate the effect of the minimum wage on formal wages informal wages and employment in colombia i exploit an unexpected increase in the real minimum wage during 1999 my analysis combines unconditional quantile regressions with a differences in differences design i find evidence of wage responses for wages close to the minimum wage the increases are present in both the informal and formal sectors and are larger in the formal one wages around the minimum increase by around 3 percent in the formal sector for a 10 percentage points larger minimum wage incidence and by around 1 percent in the informal sector these increases are smaller than those implied by full compliance to minimum wage policy but positive for some unaffected workers this suggests employers partially comply with the minimum wage and use it as a reference i find slight negative employment effects on the informal sector but not on the formal sector the effects in the informal sector are not driven by cross sectoral effects the results suggest the minimum wage has a direct impact on the informal labor market although they may not apply to minimum wage changes in other countries or contexts or to larger minimum wage increases

minimum wages and retirement the authors study the effect of the minimum wage on the employment outcomes and social security claiming of older us workers from 1983 to 2016 the probability of work at or near the minimum wage i

are local minimum wages absorbed by price increases estimates from internet based restaurant menus the authors analyze 884 internet based restaurant menus from inside and outside san jose california which they collected before and after the city implemented a 25 minimum wage increase in 2013

spillovers and governance an analysis of knowledge and reputational spillovers in information technology investigating spillovers potential costs and benefits to a firm that extend beyond an individual transaction i integrate transaction cost theory and the knowledge based view of the firm in an effort to better understand the efficient governance of knowledge contracts with detailed task descriptions were associated with transactions with the potential to generate new and reusable knowledge the risk of a firm s technology spilling over to others and the risk of reputation impairing spillovers were associated with suppliers using their own employees rather than subcontractors thus results suggest that the creation and protection of knowledge are key factors in understanding governance decisions

credible research designs for minimum wage studies a response to neumark salas and wascher the authors assess the critique by neumark salas and wascher 2014 of minimum wage studies that found small effects on teen employment data from 1979 to 2014 contradict nsw the authors show th

minimum wage and real wage inequality evidence from pass through to retail prices this paper considers the impact of the minimum wage on both labor and product markets using detailed store level scanner data i provide empirical evidence that a 10 increase in the minimum wage r

expected monetary changes and relative prices a look at evidence from the stock market at the heart of the natural rate theory is the assumption that fully perceived monetary growth is neutral with respect to relative price changes unfortunately there have been few attempts to test this assumption directly because the belief that active contracyclical monetary policies are not superior to friedman s constant growth rule rests upon the assumption that expected monetary changes have neutral relative price effects more evidence is needed on whether such changes are in fact neutral to this end we test the hypothesis that only the unexpected components and not the expected components of monetary changes affect relative price changes by looking at the stock market testing is done on a modification of the well known mean variance capital asset pricing model the capm specifically we modify the capm to allow for differential stock returns depending upon expected and unexpected monetary growth rates section ii explains the basic model used to test for non neutral relative price effects of monetary change section iii deals with the empirical definitions of expected and unexpected money growth section iv discusses the basic data while sections v and vi make neutrality tests of monetary growth using actual expected revisions in expected and unexpected money growths the last part summarizes the paper

how do plural sourcing firms make and buy the impact of supplier portfolio design this paper uses the notion of contracting strategy to advance research on plural sourcing we develop and test a theoretical framework to explain how plural sourcing firms strike the make and buy b

relative price variability and inflation evidence from us cities we test whether the time series positive correlation of inflation and intermarket relative price variability is also present in a cross section of u s cities we find this correlation to be a robu

hedging foreign exchange exposures independent vs integrative approaches many financial managers think that foreign exchange hedging decisions are mainly a choice between to hedge or not to hedge nevertheless previous researchers applied ederington s portfolio approach and found that even for risk minimization a complete hedge does not lead to the lowest risk instead there exists an optimal hedging ratio which yields the lowest variance however the discussions of these former studies were concentrated on a single foreign currency cash flow in the real world financial managers are more likely to expect multiple cash flows arriving at different times even for the same foreign currency this paper therefore discusses whether financial managers should hedge these cash flows independently or combine them under one integrative hedging scheme it is shown that while the independent approach does not lead to the lowest risk its hedging effectiveness is close to that of the integrative approach given the time and resource constraints of financial managers the simpler independent approach appears to be a better choice

inflation and the distribution of price changes this paper reconsiders the empirical evidence connecting inflation to its higher order moments in particular we examine the statistical properties of the observed positive correlation between the sample mean and the sample cross sectional skewness of price changes this correlation has attracted substantial attention over the years and has recently been the focal point of a debate among macroeconomists we show that the sample mean skewness correlation suffers from a small sample bias that accounts for the entirety of the observed correlation in other words we establish that one of the stylized facts in the literature on aggregate price behavior need not be a fact at all

inflation inflation uncertainty and relative price dispersion evidence from bivariate garch m models abstract one potential real effect of inflation is its influence on the dispersion of relative prices in the economy menu cost models generally imply that higher trend inflation will increase price dispersion in contrast signal extraction models predict that increased inflation uncertainty will raise relative price dispersion existing empirical studies do not distinguish between these separate hypotheses we constuct a bivariate garch m model of inflation and relative price dispersion to test these differing explanations in a single model and find that inflation uncertainty dominates trend inflation as a predictor of relative price dispersion

relational contracts and the theory of the firm relational contracts informal agreements sustained by the value of future relationships are prevalent within and between firms we develop repeated game models showing why and how relational contracts within firms vertical integration differ from those between nonintegration we show that integration affects the parties temptations to renege on a given relational contract and hence affects the best relational contract the parties can sustain in this sense the integration decision can be an instrument in the service of the parties relationship our approach also has implications for joint ventures alliances and networks and for the role of management within and between firms

relative price variability inflation and the allocative efficiency of the price system abstract this paper develops a theory of the relationship between aggregate and relative price variability based on the inability of people even in a rational world to identify permanent changes in relative demands whether caused by real or by monetary variability and relative productivities as soon as they occur the theory implies that the variance of the rate of inflation and the variance of relative price change are positively related although expectations are rational and markets always clear production decisions respond sluggishly to changes in relative prices temporary shocks to relative demands cause prolonged changes in the structure of production available information is used so as to maximize the efficiency of the price system however this efficiency decreases when any of the underlying variances increases this decrease is more pronounced when the production lag is longer

the relationship between relative prices and the general price level it is very nearly a truismi amaong neoclassical economists that the public is wont to confuse changes in the general price level with relative price changes correspondingl y one might speak of the independence between the two as one of the central postulates of the neoclassical tradition william stanley jevons was aml ong the first to identify this basic dichotomin economic life as well as to attempt to explain the ordinary citizen s seenming incapacity to understand it

corporate hedging of exchange risk when foreign currency cash flow is uncertain we analyze hedging policies for a corporation that generates a foreign currency cash flow that is not known with certainty we obtain an intriguing result that the probability of bankruptcy for a firm that attempts to minimize this probability is lower when there is some uncertainty in the exchange rates than when there is no uncertainty in the exchange rates the firm reduces the probability of bankruptcy by borrowing more than its financing needs through foreign currency borrowing alone and by investing the excess funds in domestic risk free securities

alternative origins to interorganizational trust an interdependence perspective on the shadow of the past and the shadow of the future despite the widespread acceptance of trust as an informal governance institution our understanding of its origins is nascent our review of the literature identified two distinct explanations trust emerges from either a shadow of the past i e prior history or a shadow of the future i e expectations of continuity in this paper we develop and empirically examine a third perspective the potential interdependence of these two explanations our results strongly endorse this third perspective we find that prior history does not directly affect trust instead the observed positive relationship between the two is mediated by expectations of continuity consistent with this result analyses further show that a longer prior history makes the effect of continuity on trust much stronger than a shorter prior history we interpret these findings as suggesting 1 the criticality and centrality of a shadow of the future i e a forward looking calculus in generating trust in interorganizational exchanges and 2 that a shadow of the past plays a facilitating albeit indirect role in trust building our conceptual model also extends the conventional use of the transaction cost logic to show how reciprocal investments in asset specificity and uncertainty drive expectations of continuity and consequently interorganizational trust our results also show unexpectedly that prior history has a direct negative effect on trust after specifying the mediating path of continuity our moderation analysis indicates when this effect occurs when weak expectations of continuity exist trust is lower for exchanges characterized by a longer prior history suggesting a potential darkside of overembedded ties

getting handcuffs on an octopus theoretical work on minimum wage policy emphasizes labor market dynamics but the resulting implications for worker mobility remain largely untested the authors show that in the teenage labor market higher minimum wage standards reduce worker flows and increase job stability furthermore they find that the employment effects of a relatively higher minimum wage vary considerably across markets with different levels of turnover and labor market tightness results help to explain the small effects of minimum wage standards on employment commonly found in the aggregate data and are consistent with labor market models that involve search frictions

reply to credible research designs for minimum wage studies the authors make three points in this reply to the article by allegretto dube reich and zipperer adrz 2017 first adrz shed no new light on the sensitivity of estimated minimum wage employmen

industry dynamics and the minimum wage a putty clay approach we document two new findings about the industry level response to minimum wage hikes first restaurant exit and entry both rise following a hike second there is no change in employment among continuing restaurants we develop a model of industry dynamics based on putty clay technology that is consistent with these findings in the model continuing restaurants cannot change employment and thus industry level adjustment occurs gradually through exit of labor intensive restaurants and entry of capital intensive restaurants interestingly the putty clay model matches the small estimated short run disemployment effect of the minimum wage found in other studies but produces a larger long run disemployment effect

uncertainty opportunism and governance the effects of volatility and ambiguity on formal and relational contracting comparing the effectiveness of contractual and relational governance in constraining opportunism under conditions of volatility and ambiguity we hypothesize that relational contracts will be robus

spot and futures prices and the law of one price the law of one price lop is tested for narrowly defined commodities traded in futures markets in different countries during the period 1973 80 although the lop holds as an average tendency for most of the commodities there are instances of large riskless arbitrage returns before transactions costs deviations from the lop tend to be commodity specific rather than due to a common external factor and they tend to be smaller the longer the maturity of the futures contract in this paper we examine how well the law of one price lop holds for commodities traded internationally the answer to this question is important for two reasons the first is that in most modern theories of exchange rates price arbitrage for at least some goods is a necessary condition to determine the level of exchange rates but recent empirical research on the behavior of various price indices casts doubt on the empirical validity of the lop across countries for even the most disaggregated indices if it is not possible to identify any commodities for which the lop works satisfactorily then models incorporating the lop will not provide an adequate description of exchange rates the second reason for studying individual commodities is to gain information on the efficiency and the degree of integration of international commodity markets in efficient markets international commodity arbitrage implies that for a standard commodity prices in two markets expressed in a common currency will not differ but for transport costs

on the real effects of short and long run inflation and relative sector price variability some empirical evidence using the kalman filter this paper evaluates empirically the effects of sector relative price variability and short run and long run inflation on the growth rate of real output in the united states since 1947 also permanent and transitory estimates are constructed to evaluate the effects of unanticipated movements in sector relative price on the growth rate of real output the results show a statistically significant inverse relationship beween the growth rate of real output and transitory sector relative price variability and anticipated long run inflation and a direct relationship between the growth rate of real output and unanticipated short run inflation

the effect of minimum wages on employment a factor model approach this paper resolves issues in the minimum wage employment debate by using factor model econometric methods to address concerns related to unobserved heterogeneity recent work has shown that the negative effects of minimum wages on employment found using traditional methods are sensitive to the inclusion of controls for regional heterogeneity and selection of states that experience minimum wage hikes leaving the two sides of the debate in disagreement about the appropriate approach factor model methods are an ideal solution for this disagreement as they allow for the presence of multiple unobserved common factors which can be correlated with the regressors these methods provide a more exible way of addressing concerns related to unobserved heterogeneity and are robust to critiques from either side of the debate the factor model estimators produce minimum wage employment elasticities that are much smaller than the traditional ols results and are not statistically different from zero these results hold for many specications and two datasets that have been used in the minimum wage employment literature a simulation shows that unobserved common factors can explain the different estimates seen across methodologies in the literature

economic exposure and integrated risk management most corporate risk management research focuses on particular risk exposures to the exclusion of other interrelated exposures by contrast this study models corporate risk exposures using a multivariate approach integrating the distinct exposures of interest to finance international business and strategy researchers the paper addresses the implications of multivariate modeling for corporate risk management some key methodological issues arising in empirical estimation of corporate economic exposures and directions for research on integrated risk management 1998 john wiley sons ltd

the hedging of an uncertain future foreign currency cash flow this paper derives the optimal hedge of an uncertain unknown quantity future foreign currency cash flow this more general optimal hedge includes the traditional hedge for a certain known quantity future foreign currency cash flow as a special case the optimal hedge is found to be unbounded and determined by firm specific conditions including the variance of the expected cash flow and the correlation of that future cash flow with actual exchange rate movements simulated optimal hedge values are found for u s based multinational firms possessing s dm cash flows using exchange rate data for the 1981 1987 period special cases in which the optimal hedge ratio equals zero and one also are identified and we show that cash flow uncertainty can strongly affect the effectiveness of hedging

do state minimum wages affect the incarceration rate because of historically unprecedented increases in the prison population since the late 1970s the united states has the highest incarceration rate in the world using becker s 1968 framework on crime this study investigates the causal relationship between incarceration rates and state minimum wages our identification strategy consists of a state level fixed effects model and autor and dorn s 2013 two stage least squares 2sls approach using the historical local industry structure we predict the change in employment shares of manual task intensive occupations and use those as an instrument for state minimum wages the fixed effects and 2sls estimates suggest that a one dollar increase in state minimum wage leads to approximately 12 25 fewer incarcerations per 100 000 state residents estimates of the heterogeneous impacts by race and gender indicate that the aggregate impact of state minimum wages is entirely driven by men

determinants of trust in supplier relations evidence from the automotive industry in japan and the united states abstract this study examines the determinants of inter organizational trust by using survey data from over 1000 suppliers in the automotive industry drawing on transaction cost economics game theory and sociological exchange theory we define trust and derive a model of its determinants regression analysis results indicate that determinants of trust are different from determinants of opportunism us japanese differences are found in three respects i the way trust is conceptualised by suppliers is more complex in japan than in the us ii the level of trust is higher in japan than in the us and iii the factors facilitating trust and those attenuating opportunism differ in the us and japan

effective interim collaboration how firms minimize transaction costs and maximise transaction value this study of automotive transaction relationships in the u s a and japan offers abta which indicate that transaction costs do not necessarily increase with an increase in reiation specijk investments we empirically examine the conditions under which transactors can simultaneously achieve the twin benejits of high asset specificity and low transaction costs this is possible because the dtfferent safeguards which can be employed to control opportunism have different set up costs and result in different transaction costs over dl erent time horizons we examine in detail the ractices of javanese firms which result in effective inteq n collaboration 1997 by john wiley sons ltd

conditional relative price variance and its determinants open economy evidence from germany the authors present empirical tests of two hypothesis derived from an open economy version of the multimarket equilibrium model the first hypothesis holds that the conditional relative price variance is positively related to the variance of domestic monetary and foreign nominal and real shocks the second hypothesis claims a negative impact of an increase in conditional relative price variance on normal output in contrast to earlier studies the authors use direct measures of conditional relative price variance based on arch estimates the authors results show that both hypotheses are consistent with german data copyright 1991 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

conglomerate mergers as defense against the risk of relative price variability this paper studies the effects of the risk of relative price variability on the optimal structure of a firm s cash flows with an application of portfolio theory it is suggested that when relative price risk is greater it is optimal for the management to diversify at the margin and emphasize economies of scale or scope when the risk is smaller conglomerate mergers should therefore be positively associated with relative price risk given the variables affecting mergers as a whole empirical evidence is found to lend support to the theory the inflation rate explains conglomerate mergers even better which suggests that relative price risk may constitute another real resource cost of inflation

interpreting the correlation between inflation and the skewness of relative prices a comment on bryan and cecchetti large literature in macroeconomics has examined how the inflation rate is related to the distribution of relative price changes this work has established a striking fact there is a strong correlation between inflation and the skewness of this distribution when inflation is high the distribution of relative price changes is typically skewed to the right when inflation is low it is skewed to the left the oil shocks of the 1970s are one example of this phenomenon inflation rose while a few goods oil products experienced especially large relative price increases but the inflationskewness correlation is not just a result of oil shock years this fact holds for many time periods and many countries e g vining elwertowski 1976 and ball mankiw 1995 for the united states amano macklem 1997 for canada de abreu lourenco and gruen 1995 for australia bryan and cecchetti 1999 argue that this fact need not be a fact at all because of small sample bias if true this is an important claim it would eliminate an apparently robust stylized fact that might otherwise hold a clue to understanding the causes or effects of inflation we are not however convinced by bryan and cecchetti s assertion our goal in this note is to explain why on its face bryan and cecchetti s claim is puzzling their paper presents a model in which there is an underlying true distribution of price changes and the observed distribution is obtained by sampling a subset of these price changes they show that the skewness of the sample distribution may be correlated with the sample mean even if there is no skewness in the population distribution this model however does not capture the reality of how price indices are constructed it is not the case that there are a large number of sectors and the government computes the cpi by sampling a small number of them instead the government measures prices in all sectors of which there may be a small or large number depending on the level of disaggregation the observed correlation of the mean and skewness is based on the full population of sectors so small sample bias does not appear to be possible because the data used to construct price indices are comprehensive one cannot avoid the conclusion that the inflation skewness correlation is a fact 1 if the idea of small sample bias is not relevant here how should one interpret the numerical simulations presented by bryan and cecchetti the substance of their argument we believe is that it is easy to explain the correlation between inflation and skewness previous authors have worked hard to explain this fact ball and mankiw 1995 propose that this correlation can be explained with menu cost models of price adjustment while balke and wynne 1996 argue that it can be explained by a multisector real business cycle model by contrast bryan and cecchetti generate the inflation skewness correlation in a much simpler model although it would be wrong to interpret their results as showing that the correlation doesn t exist one could plausibly interpret them as showing that this correlation doesn t prove anything as they put it such statistics are not useful in distinguishing sticky from flexible price setting behavior in macroeconomic models to evaluate this argument it helps to step back and review the motivation behind the ball mankiw and balke wynne theories the starting point for these authors is the classical theory of price determination central to this theory is the classical dichotomy relative prices are determined by real factors and the aggregate price level is determined by monetary factors specifically if there are n sectors in the economy there are n 1 relative prices real variables such as shifts in demand and costs in the various sectors determine these n 1 prices using any good or combination of goods as the numeraire the aggregate price level is determined by the supply and demand for money this idea is summarized by the quantity equation mv 5 py the n 1 relative prices and the price level which equals the average of all nominal prices together determine the n nominal prices in this classical model there is no obvious reason that the behavior of the aggregate price level is related to the distribution of relative prices if m v and y remain constant then p is constant and any shifts in the distribution of relative prices do not influence the price level to explain the observed inflation skewness correlation one must explain how the economy differs from this classical baseline balke and wynne offer one story for the inflationskewness correlation in their model certain shocks to the economy generate both skewness in the relative price distribution and changes in aggregate output for instance when opec raised oil prices relative prices in energy related sectors rose by 50 or more balanced by smaller relativeprice decreases in the rest of the economy this generated

learning and protection of proprietary assets in strategic alliances building relational capital one of the main reasons that firms participate in alliances is to learn know how and capabilities from their alliance partners at the same time firms want to protect themselves from the opportunistic behavior of their partner to retain their own core proprietary assets most research has generally viewed the achievement of these objectives as mutually exclusive in contrast we provide empirical evidence using large sample survey data to show that when firms build relational capital in conjunction with an integrative approach to managing conflict they are able to achieve both objectives simultaneously relational capital based on mutual trust and interaction at the individual level between alliance partners creates a basis for learning and know how transfer across the exchange interface at the same time it curbs opportunistic behavior of alliance partners thus preventing the leakage of critical know how between them copyright 2000 john wiley sons ltd

privatization and changes in welfare costs of inflation the case of entel argentina abstract in a country with permanent deficit driven inflation problems the proceeds from privatization may translate into potential reductions of the seigniorage needed to finance a given a level of government expenditure the changes in welfare costs of inflation brought about by divestiture are quantified in a monetary model in an argentine case study these changes were found to be small both in terms of gdp and as a percentage of seigniorage revenue within the model this is mainly explained by the low values encountered for the elasticities of money demand with respect to expected inflation and by the exclusion of considerations about unanticipated inflation

on inflation and real price variability this paper studies the consequences of costly price adjustments for the variability of real prices accompanying inflation for constant elasticity demand and cost of production it is shown that a higher demand a lower cost of production or a lower cost of price adjustment leads to less intertemporal variability of real prices if the marginal cost of production does not increase too fast then the average real price is less than the real price that would prevail in the absence of inflation additionally a higher demand a lower cost of production or a lower cost of price adjustment leads to a higher level of real prices

inflation and relative price variability in yugoslavia abstract granger causality tests show that inflation granger causes relative price variability but the feedback relationship cannot be excluded

variability of inflation and the dispersion of relative prices evidence from the chinese hyperinflation of 1946 1949 abstract this paper uses data from the chinese hyperinflation of 1946 1949 to focus on the relationship between the variability in the general price level and the dispersion in relative prices the issue is important because it bears on the natural rate hypothesis which supports the postulate that these two monetary variables are independent our results reinforce the bulk of previous evidence which suggests a positive correlation between the variation in inflation rate and the dispersion in relative prices during inflationary episodes

tax uncertainty and business activity abstract we investigate the extent to which uncertainties about tax policies affect business activities we develop a statewide tax uncertainty measure tu measure and show that it captures state corporate tax uncertainty by comparing adjacent counties across state borders we show that increasing tax uncertainty by one standard deviation a 30 increase in the tu measure leads to a 0 17 point per year decrease in the growth rate of establishments over two years the result holds after conducting a variety of robustness checks and is not likely to be driven by general state policy uncertainties

the minimum wage and the great recession evidence of effects on the employment and income trajectories of low skilled workers abstract we estimate the minimum wage s effects on low skilled individuals employment and income trajectories following the great recession our approach exploits two dimensions of the data we analyze first we compare individuals in states that were fully bound by the 2007 to 2009 increases in the federal minimum wage to individuals in states that were not second we use variation in the minimum wage s bite across skill groups to separate our samples into target and within state control groups using the 2008 panel of the survey of income and program participation we find that binding minimum wage increases had significant negative effects on the employment and income growth of targeted workers although there are important limitations to our research designs our estimates are robust to adopting a range of alternative strategies to construct our analysis samples and to account for variation in the great recession s underlying severity across states in aggregate our estimates suggest that this period s minimum wage increases reduced aggregate employment rates by at least half of a percentage point in states that were bound by the federal minimum wage increases because our estimates are large relative to what one would infer from past research we emphasize the relevance of the historical episode we analyze

diversification exchange risk and corporate international investment all international investments inevitably have some diversification consequences yet the literature on foreign direct investment accords only a limited role to diversification or financial variables this paper develops a theory of corporate international investment from the standpoint of finance in an environment where the segmentation of international capital markets for individuals or the presence of agency costs provide some independence to corporate decisions separate from shareholders the model does not depend on any particular advantage of multinational firms and is specifies the stochastic properties of domestic and foreign output and input prices it is found that real exchange risk and diversification gains affect corporate international investment in a significant way it is also shown that the model embodies several existing explanations based on behavioral and economic variables

effects of the minimum wage on employment dynamics the voluminous literature on minimum wages offers little consensus on the extent to which a wage floor impacts employment we argue that the minimum wage will impact employment over time through changes in growth rather than an immediate drop in relative employment levels we show that commonly used specifications in this literature especially those that include state specific time trends will not accurately capture these effects using three separate state panels of administrative employment data we find that the minimum wage reduces job growth over a period of several years this finding is supported using several empirical specifications

currency risk and relative price risk this paper demonstrates the strong linkages that exist between currency risk represented by inflation risk and exchange rate changes and relative price risk these linkages affect the optional quantities of forward exchange contracts nominal debt and fixed price sales purchase contracts to use in hedging against these risks it is shown that the existence of as many hedging mechanisms as there are forms of price risk allows for the precise targeting of specific price risks with specific hedging instruments moreover even though each hedging mechanism specializes in protecting against a particular form of price risk the optimal quantitiy of each influences and is influenced by the optimal quantities of the others

relative price changes as aggregate supply shocks this paper proposes a theory of supply shocks or shifts in the short run phillips curve based on relative price changes and frictions in nominal price adjustment when price adjustment is costly firms adjust to large shocks but not to small shocks and so large shocks have disproportionate effects on the price level therefore aggregate inflation depends on the distribution of relative price changes inflation rises when the distribution is skewed to the right and falls when the distribution is skewed to the left we show that this theoretical result explains a large fraction of movements in postwar u s inflation moreover our model suggests measures of supply shocks that perform better than traditional measures such as the relative prices of food and energy

a proposition on short run departures from the law of one price unanticipated inflation relative price dispersion and commodity arbitrage abstract this paper proposes an explanation of short run departures from the law of one price based on the characteristics of the inflationary process and changes in the distribution of relative prices unexpected inflation gives rise to volatility of relative prices the more unexpected and hence uneven the rate of inflation the greater the difficulty in discerning from a given structure of relative prices commodity arbitrage opportunities which may be expected to persist and those transient opportunities which do not warrant a firm s incurring fixed costs of arbitrage an illustration portrays a risk averse firm confronting an international arbitrage opportunity

market structure and price flexibility abstract the relationship between market form and price adjustment patterns is examined by using disaggregated price data for mexico over the 1940 1984 period frequency of price adjustment and characteristics of goods and industries appear to be related as predicted by menu cost and customer market models the pattern of response followed by individual prices to inflationary shocks is related to their frequency of price adjustment the typical pattern of response to small and large shocks may differ contrary to predictions based on models with overlapping contracts in addition the empirical results have implications for the relationship between inflation and relative price variability

in search of complementarity in innovation strategy internal r d and external knowledge acquisition empirical research on complementarity between organizational design decisions has traditionally focused on the question of existence of complementarity in this paper we take a broader approach to the issue combining a productivity and an adoption approach while including a search for contextual variables in the firms strategy that affects complementarity analysis of contextual variables is not only interesting per se but also improves the productivity test for the existence of complementarity we use our empirical methodology to analyze complementarity between innovation activities internal research and development r d and external knowledge acquisition our results suggest that internal r d and external knowledge acquisition are complementary innovation activities but that the degree of complementarity is sensitive to other elements of the firms strategic environment we identify reliance on basic r dthe importance of universities and research centers as an information source for the innovation processas an important contextual variable affecting complementarity between internal and external innovation activities

capturing knowledge within and across firm boundaries evidence from clinical development how do firm boundaries influence employees acquisition of information using detailed project level data and qualitative evidence i document that pharmaceutical firms are more likely to outsource the coordination of data intensive clinical trials while they are more likely to assign knowledge intensive trials to internal teams managers do not choose between market and hierarchy but between the hierarchy of the firm in which subjective performance evaluations are combined with flat explicit incentives and the hierarchy of its subcontractor whose virtue stems precisely from the ability to provide high powered incentives on a narrow set

learning to contract evidence from the personal computer industry organizational forms involving more detailed contracts than are found in traditional spot market exchanges appear to be increasingly prevalent there has been relatively little analysis however of the extent to which firms learn how to use contracts to manage their interfirm relationships over time in this paper we conduct a detailed case study of a time series of 11 contracts concluded during 1989 1997 between the same two partners both of whom participate in the personal computer industry to explore whether and how firms learn to contract we find many changes to the structure of the contracts that cannot be fully explained by changes in the assets at risk in the relationship and evidence that these changes are largely the result of processes in which the firms were learning how to work together including learning how to contract with each other the nature of this learning appears to have been quite incremental and local that is not very far sighted we suggest how and when contracts might serve as repositories for knowledge about how to govern collaborations and suggest some boundary conditions for this phenomenon our findings also provide implications for the debate about whether contracts have a positive or negative effect on interorganizational trust we conclude with suggestions for future research

minimum wage policy with optimal taxes and unemployment abstract using a search model i derive a formula that links the welfare gains from the minimum wage to its effect on low skilled labor force participation and employment this formula shows that the minimum wage is welfare improving if pushing the low skilled labor market tightness downwards brings it closer to its efficient level i estimate the causal effect of the minimum wage on low skilled labor force participation and employment using federal and state minimum wage variation i discuss the policy implications of my estimates when viewed through the lens of the marginal welfare gain formula

intercountry differences in the relationship between relative price variability and average prices this paper provides new evidence on the relationship between relative price variability and inflation the model uses a consistently defined data set for nine european countries it benefits from the inclusion and testing of the effects of macroeconomic variables and the incorporation into the measures of inflation and dispersion adjustments for timeliness appropriate formulas and proximity the general findings of an effect on relative price variability by the macroeconomic environment and negative coefficients on unexpected inflation are supported by their occurrence in models estimated by seemingly unrelated regression and a robust systems estimator

inflation and relative price variability short run vs long run abstract this paper uses recent developments in measuring correlation to examine the relationship between inflation and relative price variability rpv the results suggest that the positive correlation holds not only in the short run but also in the long run this finding has important implications for theoretical models that purport to explain this relationship such models must incorporate features that generate positive relationships that hold even in the long run

transaction cost economics in real time this paper attempts to place the theq of the boundaries of thejirm within the context of the passage of time more precisely it resurrects and places in a modem frame some of the insights of the chsical and marshallian theories of organization the modem reinterpretation of those theories centers around the capabilities view of the jirm taken together with governance costs the capabilities ofjirm and market determine the boundaries of the jirm in the short run ovw time capabilities change as firms and markets learn which implies a kind of information or knowledge cost the cost of trandewing the firm s capability to the market w vice versa these dynamic governance costs are the costs of persuading negotiating and coordinating with and teaching others they arise in the face of change notably txchnological and organizational innovation in fit they are the costs of not having the capabilities you need when you need them dynamic transaction costs provide an explanation for vertical integration that is arguably more general than those dominant in the literature in the face of uncertainty and divwgent views ofthe future common ownership of multiple stages of production is a supwior institutional arrangement for coordinating systemic change asset specrfity is neither necessary nor suffient for this to be true dynamic governance costs may also affit internal organization it may sometimes be costly in 3 terms of persuasion negotiation and teaching to create within the firm capabilities readily available on the market indeed in cases in which systemic coordination is not 4 the issue the market may turn out to be the superior institution of coordination in e 2 genwal the capabilities view of the jirm suggests that we look atfim2 and market as alternative and sometimes overlapping institutions of learning 1 transaction costs in the long rzln and the short 9 x classical and neoclassical perspectives

neutrality of inflation in the agricultural sector abstract the paper considers the effect of inflation on the relative prices of products traded in auction markets prices of us agricultural products are used for the period 1951 1981 since agricultural products are widely traded the real forces of supply and demand specific to agriculture are represented by foreign agricultural prices the exchange rate is entered as a separate variable influencing domestic agricultural prices trade between the usa and the ten countries included in the federal reserve board s trade weighted dollar is considered the empirical results are consistent with the hypothesis that inflation did not alter relative agricultural prices when the real forces of supply and demand and the exchange rate are held constant

do minimum wages lead to job losses evidence from oecd countries on low skilled and youth employment the author investigates effects of minimum wage rates on low skilled female low skilled and youth employment the sample consists of 19 organisation for economic co operation and development oec

revisiting the minimum wage employment debate throwing out the baby with the bathwater we revisit the minimum wage employment debate which is as old as the department of labor in particular we assess new studies claiming that the standard panel data approach used in much of the new minimum wage research is flawed because it fails to account for spatial heterogeneity these new studies use research designs intended to control for this heterogeneity and conclude that minimum wages in the united states have not reduced employment we explore the ability of these research designs to isolate reliable identifying information and test the untested assumptions in this new research about the construction of better control groups our evidence points to serious problems with these research designs we conclude that the evidence still shows that minimum wages pose a tradeoff of higher wages for some against job losses for others and that policymakers need to bear this tradeoff in mind when making decisions about increasing the minimum wage

relative price dispersion aggregate price movement and the natural rate of unemployment this paper develops a model of relative price stickiness and examines its implications for the relationship between relative prices inflation and the natural rate of unemployment estimation of the model demonstrates that causality in the relationship between relative and aggregate prices runs in both directions however microeconomic disturbances have been the primary source of relative price change variance over the postwar period and these micro disturbances have exerted a strong effect on inflation in the short run it also is shown that micro relative price change dispersion has had a significant influence on the natural rate of unemployment

nominal contracting in a world of uncertainty abstract this paper evaluates corporate sensitivity to relative price risk and inflation risk and suggests how the existence of various nominal contracts particularly debt and forward contracts may modify firm behavior under uncertainty by differentiating between the two types of price risk this paper demonstrates the distinct risk reduction functions served by forward contracts and debt debt primarily protects against inflation risk whereas forward contracts can be used to protect against relative price risk complications arise however because forward contracts which are denominated in nominal terms also have an impact on the firm s degree of inflation risk

capabilities transaction costs and firm boundaries although the literature on firm boundaries has been greatly influenced by transaction cost economics strategy scholars often emphasize the importance of capabilities considerations in these decisions this has led to a debate that we suggest has generated more heat than light we argue that the two sets of considerations are in fact so intertwined dynamically that treating them as independent competitive explanations is fundamentally misleading we offer a theoretical synthesis of transaction cost and capabilities approaches to firm boundaries that seeks to overcome each approach s limitations and provides a unified and logically consistent understanding of boundary decisions

can minimum wages cause a big push evidence from indonesia big push models suggest that local product demand can create multiple labor market equilibria one featuring high wages formalization and high demand and one with low wages informality and low demand i demonstrate that minimum wages may coordinate development at the high wage equilibrium using data from 1990s indonesia where minimum wages increased in a varied way i develop a difference in spatial differences estimator which weakens the common trend assumption of difference in differences estimation reveals strong trends in support of a big push formal employment increases and informal employment decreases in response to the minimum wage local product demand also increases and this formalization occurs only in the non tradable industrializable industries suggested by the model while employment in tradable and non industrializable industries also conforms to model predictions

match bias in wage gap estimates due to earnings imputation about 30 of workers in the current population survey have earnings imputed wage gap estimates are biased toward zero when the attribute being studied e g union status is not a criterion used to match donors to nonrespondents an expression for match bias is derived in which attenuation equals the sum of match error rates attenuation can be approximated by the proportion with imputed earnings union wage gap estimates with match bias removed are presented for 1973 2001 estimates for recent years are biased downward 5 percentage points bias in gap estimates accompanying other non match criteria public sector industry etc is examined

the effect of minimum wages on low wage jobs we estimate the eect of minimum wages on low wage jobs using 138 prominent state level minimum wage changes between 1979 and 2016 in the u s using a dierence in dierences approach we first estimate the eect of the minimum wage increase on employment changes by wage bins throughout the hourly wage distribution we then focus on the bottom part of the wage distribution and compare the number of excess jobs paying at or slightly above the new minimum wage to the missing jobs paying below it to infer the employment eect we find that the overall number of low wage jobs remained essentially unchanged over the five years following the increase at the same time the direct eect of the minimum wage on average earnings was amplified by modest wage spillovers at the bottom of the wage distribution our estimates by detailed demographic groups show that the lack of job loss is not explained by labor labor substitution at the bottom of the wage distribution we also find no evidence of disemployment when we consider higher levels of minimum wages however we do find some evidence of reduced employment in tradable sectors we also show how decomposing the overall employment eect by wage bins allows a transparent way of assessing the plausibility of estimates

minimum wage shocks employment flows and labor market frictions we provide the first estimates of the effects of minimum wages on employment flows in the u s labor market identifying the impact using policy discontinuities at state borders we find that minimum wages have a sizable negative effect on employment flows but not stocks separations and accessions fall among affected workers we interpret our findings using a job ladder model in which minimum wage increases can reduce job to job transitions we find that a standard calibration of the model generates predicted relative magnitudes of the employment stock and flow elasticities that are very close to our reduced form estimates