consumer privacy in oligopolistic markets winners losers and welfare motivated by the unprecedented availability of consumer information on the internet we characterize the winners and losers from potential privacy regulation in the context of four commonly used oligopoly models a linear city model a circular city model a vertical differentiation model and a multi unit symmetric demand model we show that while there are winners and losers as a result of privacy enforcement the parties who stand to benefit and the parties who stand to lose as well as whether social welfare is enhanced or diminished largely depends on the specific economic setting under consideration

the colorblind crowd founder race and performance in crowdfunding the dearth of minority entrepreneurs has received increasing media attention but few academic analyses in particular the funding process creates challenges for either audit or correspondence methods making it difficult to assess the role or type of discrimination influencing resource providers we use a novel approach that combines analyses of 7 617 crowdfunding projects with an experimental design to identify whether african american men are discriminated against and whether this reflects statistical taste based or unconscious bias on the part of prospective supporters we find that african american men are significantly less likely than similar white founders to receive funding and that prospective supporters rate identical projects as lower in quality when they believe the founder is an african american male we conclude that the reduction in perceived quality does not reflect conscious assumptions of differences in founder ability or disamenity but rather an unconscious assumption that black founders are lower quality in two additional experiments we identify three means of reducing this bias through additional evidence of quality via third party endorsements i e awards evidence of prior support through evidence that african american founders have succeeded previously and by removing indicators of the founder s race the online appendix is available at https doi org 10 1287 mnsc 2017 2774 this paper was accepted by toby stuart entrepreneurship and innovation

consumption in developing countries tests for liquidity constraints and finite horizons adjustment programs in developing countries emphasize the importance of reducing fiscal deficits in order to improve aggregate saving and investment performance recent theoretical analyses associated with the ricardian equivalence proposition however suggest that changes in the level of public sector saving may be offset by a change in private saving the empirical relevance of this proposition depends among other things on the length of consumers horizons and on the extent to which households are liquidity constrained empirical tests of a consumption model for a sample of developing economies do not support the equivalence propositions owing to the prevalence of liquidity constraints copyright 1989 by mit press

screening incentives and privacy protection in financial markets a theoretical and empirical analysis we study a model in which firms offer financial products to individuals post prices for their products and screen consumers who apply to purchase them any information obtained in the screening process may be traded to another firm selling related products we show that firms ability to sell consumer information can lead to lower prices higher screening intensities and increased social welfare by exploiting variations in the adoption of local financial privacy ordinances in five california bay area counties we are able to provide simple estimates of the effects of stricter financial privacy laws on mortgage denial rates during 2001 2006 consistent with the model s predictions denial rates for home purchase loans and refinancing loans decreased in counties where opt in privacy ordinances were adopted moreover estimated foreclosure start rates during the financial crisis of 2007 2008 were higher in counties where the privacy ordinance was adopted

beyond bankruptcy does the us bankruptcy code provide a fresh start to entrepreneurs abstract this paper assesses the extent to which the us bankruptcy system is effective in providing small businesses a fresh start after a bankruptcy filing i use data from the 1993 1998 and 2003 national survey of small business finances to explore how firms fare after a bankruptcy filing on the positive side previously bankrupt firms are not any more burdened than the average small firm by problems relating to profitability cash flow health insurance costs or taxes further the fact that these firms are surviving several years after the filing is itself a testament to the efficient functioning of the us bankruptcy system it suggests that the bankruptcy system goes a long way toward helping businesses recover after a bankruptcy filing however the one area of concern that persists after a filing is financing or credit access in general these firms have a nearly 24 percentage point higher likelihood of being denied a loan and are charged interest rates that are more than 1 percentage point higher than those charged to other businesses a bankruptcy affects all types of financing even trade credit which is a significant form of lending between businesses in fact it appears that firms with a bankruptcy record are rationed out of the market with all types of loans being denied at significantly higher rates than other firms further my results show that bankruptcy leads to a class of discouraged borrowers who are significantly less likely to even apply for a loan

market structure and discrimination the case of small businesses this paper examines bank market structure to draw inferences concerning the role of discrimination in credit markets for small businesses the authors analyze credit application and denial rates loans outstanding and interest rates across demographic groups this set of variables in combination with information on local bank market structure helps them distinguish among borrower preferences lender tastes and inadequate lender information as likely causes of differences in credit market experiences of small business operators from distinct demographic groups the authors find that white men and women can expect similar treatment in credit markets with some benefits to female owned firms located in concentrated banking markets minorities by contrast fare worse than whites moreover by appealing to becker s 1957 classic theories we find some clear evidence to support the view that prejudicial discrimination is at least partly to blame

lending to small businesses the role of loan maturity in addressing information problems we investigate what determines the maturity of lines of credit to small businesses our results provide strong support for the hypothesis that shorter loan maturities serve to mitigate the problems associated with borrower risk and asymmetric information that are typical of small business lending we find that maturity is shorter for firm owners that have poor credit histories are older and less experienced and for firms that are more informationally opaque supporting the notion that collateral and maturity are substitute mechanisms in mitigating agency problems we also find strong evidence that maturity increases with collateral pledges that personal collateral is associated with longer maturities than business collateral and that collateral types that better mitigate agency problems reduce the sensitivity of loan maturity to informational asymmetries and risk finally while it is argued that relationship lending may mitigate information asymmetry we find no relation between loan maturity and stronger firm creditor ties

why did japan s household savings rate fall in the 1990s this study investigates empirically why japan s household savings rate fell in the 1990s we constructed an economic model consisting of two types of household unconstrained life cycle households and liquidity constrained households unconstrained households generally save but liquidity constrained households consume all of their disposable income we found that the proportion of liquidity constrained households increased sharply in the late 1990s which led to a decline in japan s household savings rate our simulation analysis demonstrates that if the proportion of liquidity constrained households in the 1990s had stayed at the level as that of the late 1980s the household savings rate would have increased by four points in 2001 and 2002

public information and coordination evidence from a credit registry expansion this paper provides evidence that lenders to a firm close to distress have incentives to coordinate lower financing by one lender reduces firm creditworthiness and causes other lenders to reduce financing to isolate the coordination channel from lenders joint reaction to new information we exploit a natural experiment that forced lenders to share negative private assessments about their borrowers we show that lenders while learning nothing new about the firm reduce credit in anticipation of other lenders reaction to the negative news about the firm the results show that public information exacerbates lender coordination and increases the incidence of firm financial distress

dynamic targeted pricing with strategic consumers abstract we investigate in this paper whether dynamic targeted pricing based on consumer purchase history could benefit a practicing firm even when consumers are strategic in that they actively seek to avail themselves of a low price in the future such strategic behavior on the part of consumers has been shown in the literature to render such dynamic targeted pricing unprofitable even for a monopoly firm we show that dynamic targeted pricing can benefit competing firms when they actively pursue customer recognition based on consumer purchase history this is because in order to pursue customer recognition competing firms need to price high to screen out price sensitive consumers and hence price competition is moderated as a result all competing firms can become better off with targeted pricing than without even when consumers behave strategically interestingly because of this competition moderation effect the paradoxical outcome occurs where dynamic targeted pricing may not benefit a monopolist but it may benefit competing firms we also show that dynamic targeted pricing can expand the market such that social welfare unambiguously improves

error correction mechanisms the interface between economic theory and applied econometrics is often one of uneasy compromise with the pragmatic justification for many accepted procedures resting on a theoretical base this paper examines the surprisingly strong arguments that exist in terms of economic theory for the use of error correction mechanisms in the specification of short run dynamic adjustment a common heresy exists that while economic theory provides a detailed analysis of comparative static equilibria it can offer no guidance as to the appropriate specification of dynamic adjustment towards an equilibrium perhaps in consequence it is not uncommon to find examples where the necessary dynamic specification is achieved by tacking onto an existing equilibrium specification some relatively ad hoc short run adjustment scheme the intercession of stochastic arguments in this process is confused and critical implications are frequently ignored in practice but perhaps more importantly there will typically be no guarantee that the dynamic specification is consistent with the prescribed equilibrium consistency in this sense requires that the short run dynamic adjustment be directed by the perceived disequilibrium and that eventual convergence to the equilibrium position be ensured that two separate theoretical arguments co exist within the final specification is the root cause of many difficulties both theoretical and empirical this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

gender and rural non farm entrepreneurship despite their increasing prominence in policy debates little is known about gender inequities in non agricultural labor market outcomes in rural areas using matched household enterprise community data sets from bangladesh ethiopia indonesia and sri lanka this paper documents and analyzes gender differences in the individual portfolio choice and productivity of non farm entrepreneurship except for ethiopia women are less likely than men to become nonfarm entrepreneurs women s nonfarm entrepreneurship isn t strongly correlated with household composition or educational attainment but is especially prevalent amongst women who are the head of their household female led firms are much smaller and less productive on average though gender differences in productivity vary dramatically across countries mean differences in log output per worker suggest that male firms are roughly 10 times as productive as female firms in bangladesh three times as those in ethiopia and twice as those in sri lanka by contrast no significant differences in labor productivity were detected in indonesia differences in output per worker are overwhelmingly accounted for by sorting by sector and size they can t be explained by differences in capital intensity human capital or the local investment climate nor by increasing returns to scale

electoral cycles and budgetary growth in veterans benefit programs while many studies have generated negative findings regarding the general existence of electoral cycles in economic phenomena we have found an apparently robust electoral cycle in veterans benefits this pattern was found between 1961 and 1978 but has disappeared since then we use this case to investigate the possibility that electoral cycles might contribute to the growth of government spending using two different methods of inference we find no strong basis to conclude that such cycles cause increasing public sector growth

releasing constraints to growth or pushing on a string policies and performance of mexican micro firms abstract using firm level data from mexico this paper investigates the firm characteristics associated with participation in credit markets access to training tax payments and membership in business associations we find that firms which participate in these institutions exhibit significantly higher profits moreover firms that borrow from formal or informal sources and those that pay taxes are significantly more likely to stay in business but firms that received credit exhibit lower rates of income growth these results persist when firm characteristics that are arguably correlated with unobserved entrepreneurial ability are controlled for our findings suggest that the significant within country differences in firm productivity observed in developing economies are due in part to market and government failures that limit the ability of micro firms to reach their optimal sizes

affirmative action programs and business ownership among minorities and women affirmative action programs are commonly used as a means to level the playing field for minority and women owned firms in public procurement markets and therefore may be a positive factor in business entry and survival to the extent that affirmative action programs also apply to traditional labor markets however they may alter the opportunity cost of starting a business we utilize the elimination of affirmative action in california and washington states through voter initiatives to identify the effect of affirmative action on minority and female self employment rates in our base specifications we find evidence of modest increases in self employment among minorities and women in both california and washington after elimination of affirmative action consistent with the hypothesis that the opportunity cost of starting a business fell due to restricting opportunities in the traditional labor markets the sign of the estimated effect however is not uniformly positive when considering specific race gender groups and the statistical significance of the main results is somewhat sensitive to the choice of control states

gender biases in bank lending lessons from microcredit in france the evidence on gender discrimination in lending remains controversial to capture gender biases in banks loan allocations we observe the impact on the applicants of a microfinance institution mfi and exploit the natural experiment of a regulatory change imposing a strict eur 10 000 loan ceiling on microcredit descriptive statistics indicate that the presence of the ceiling is associated both with bank mfi co financing and with harsher treatment of female borrowers to investigate causal links we develop an econometric approach that addresses the concerns of selection biases multicollinearity and endogeneity our empirical findings suggest that the change in the mfi s gender related attitude was triggered by banks through co financing hence we speculate that co financing pushes ceiling constrained mfis to import whatever biases in loan granting that the banks are prone to overall this paper stresses that apparently benign regulations such as loan ceilings can significantly harm the women s empowerment efforts made by mfis

does racial prejudice affect black entrepreneurship evidence exploiting spatial differences in prejudicial attitudes abstractthis article explores the relationship between racial prejudice towards blacks and the black white self employment rate gap and provides the first direct empirical evidence that racial prejudice negatively impacts black self employment particularly in high start up cost industries to perform this analysis i construct a measure of prejudicial attitudes using responses from the general social survey and estimate the relationship between self employment and this index using the american community survey i find that an amount of prejudice equal to the difference in least and most prejudiced census divisions increases the black white self employment rate gap in high start up cost industries by 10 4 16 8 depending upon whether parental self employment is controlled for and represents the entire impact of racial prejudice on the black white self employment rate gap additionally racial prejudice widens the black white self employment income gap by between 6 4 and 8 2 in my full specification d

mortgage lending in boston interpreting hmda data the home mortgage disclosure act was enacted to monitor minority and low income access to the mortgage market the data collected for this purpose show that minorities are more than twice as likely to be denied a mortgage as whites yet variables correlated with both race and creditworthiness were omitted from these data making any conclusion about race s role in mortgage lending impossible the federal reserve bank of boston collected additional variables important to the mortgage lending decision and found that race continued to play an important though significantly diminished role in the decision to grant a mortgage copyright 1996 by american economic association

aggregate consumption interest rates and inflation in ldcs an error correction model this article explores the relationship between the real interest rate and the consumption saving decisions in ldcs following the error correction methodology the model also includes an income term the inflation rate and a term for inflation uncertainty the main conclusion drawn from this exercise is that for low inflation countries there is a positive and stronger interest rate effect on saving while this effect is less clear and not significant for most high inflation countries also the results show that for at least half of the countries in the sample an ec model with a unit elasticity restriction seems to be an adequate representation of the data

who is credit constrained in the u s economy an important assumption of the life cycle model of consumption is the postulate of perfect capital markets this hypothesis has recently been challenged by substantial empirical evidence hall and mishkin 1982 using the panel study of income dynamics estimate that 20 percent of united states families are liquidity constrained mariger 1986 derives a life cycle model with endogenous liquidity constraints and using a cross section estimates this fraction to be 19 4 percent hubbard and judd 1986 simulate a model with a constraint on net worth which shows that with reasonable assumptions about preferences 19 0 percent of united states consumers are liquidity constrained the emerging consensus points therefore to a fraction of approximately 20 percent of the population behaving in a manner that is inconsistent with the pure life cycle model in addition hayashi 1985 and zeldes 1989 investigate the correlation among consumption wealth and income for various population groups and infer that liquidity constraints are more important for younger families with low levels of wealth and saving the main limitation of these studies is that in their data sets constrained consumers are not observable and have to be identified via indirect evidence thus there is as yet little firm evidence about the characteristics of the consumers who are likely to be credit constrained this paper adopts an approach that differs from previous tests for liquidity constraints because it makes use of data where constrained consumers are observable and explicitly links their existence to credit market imperfections and personal characteristics the data drawn from the 1983 survey of consumer finances scf and described in section ii provide information on individuals whose request for credit has been rejected by financial intermediaries in section iii a model is developed in which consumers and lenders behavior jointly determines the probability that a consumer is rationed in the credit market this probability is then

can entrepreneurial activity be taught quasi experimental evidence from central america summary business training is a widely used development tool yet little is known about its impact we study the effects of such a business training program held in central america to deal with endogenous selection into the training program we use a regression discontinuity design exploiting the fact that a fixed number of applicants are taken into the training program based on a pre training score business training significantly increases the probability that an applicant to the workshop starts a business or expands an existing business results also suggest gender heterogeneity as well as the presence of financial constraints

entrepreneurial finance credit cards and race this paper examines the impact of financial deregulation on entrepreneurship we assess the impact of credit card deregulation on transitions into self employment using state level removal of credit card interest rate ceilings following the us supreme court s 1978 marquette decision as a quasi natural experiment we find that credit card deregulation increases the probability of entrepreneurial entry with a particularly strong effect for black entrepreneurs we demonstrate that these effects are magnified in states with a history of racial discrimination and link the results to discriminationbased barriers to entry 2012 elsevier b v all rights reserved

discrimination in the small business credit market we use data from the 1993 and 1998 national surveys of small business finances to examine the existence of racial discrimination in the small business credit market we conduct an econometric analysis of loan outcomes by race and find that black owned small businesses are about twice as likely to be denied credit even after controlling for differences in creditworthiness and other factors a series of specification checks indicates that this gap is unlikely to be explained by omitted variable bias these results indicate that the racial disparity in credit availability is likely caused by discrimination

the effect of liquidity constraints on consumption a cross sectional analysis this paper examines the effect of liquidity constraints on consumption expenditures using a single year cross section data set a reduced form equation for consumption is estimated on high saving households by the tobit procedure to account for the selectivity bias since high saving households are not likely to be liquidity constrained the estimated equation is an appropriate description of how desired consumption that would be forthcoming without liquidity constraints is related to the variables available in the cross section data when the reduced form equation is used to predict desired consumption the gap between desired consumption and measured consumption is most evident for young households

racial discrimination in umpire voting an arguably unexpected result abstractusing data from an official most valuable player award in professional sport we test for the presence of discrimination by match officials umpires who are responsible for ranking the top three players within each match these umpires are found to award significantly more votes to and have a higher probability of voting for players identified as australian indigenous after controlling for within match production the result offers further evidence on racial discrimination and runs counter to numerous analogous studies both in sport as well as in labour and other socio economic outcomes in general

presidential politics budget deficits and monetary policy in the united states 1960 1976 this paper has focused on the extent to which the traditional tools of macroeconomic management in the united states monetary and fiscal policy have contributed to a political business cycle regardless of whether politicians can successfully influence real economic variables to their own ends the evidence presented here suggests that they tried and that they enjoyed some at least indirect aid from their independent monetary authorities in doing so several major conclusions emerge

ethnic matching in the u s venture capital market we document the role of entrepreneurial founder and venture capital vc partner co ethnicity in shaping investment relationships co ethnicity increases the likelihood that a vc firm invests in a company conditional on investment co ethnicity strengthens the degree of involvement by raising the likelihood of vc board of director involvement and increasing the size and scope of investment these results are consistent with trust and social network based mechanisms shared ethnicity in our sample is associated with worse investment outcomes as measured by investment liquidity however which our results suggest might stem from looser screening and or corporate governance

an evaluation of lender redlining in the allocation of unsecured consumer credit in the us credit discrimination in the us has been a topic of considerable interest over the past few decades this paper examines the lending behaviour of a commercial depository institution with respect to unsecured consumer loans in minority versus non minority us census tracts in contrast to previous studies the data include information about applicants credit scores and marginal exceptions to loan policy in a logit model of the probability of denial no evidence of discrimination is found for overall loans or when an application is turned down even when a minimum credit score is reached the evidence of non discrimination is not as clear for applications that were approved despite falling short of minimum credit scores or applications that barely met the minimum score but were turned down the results suggest that future research on lending discrimination should focus on these marginal exceptions to loan policy

the impact of entrepreneurship programs on minorities we document the impact of an entrepreneurship training program on startup activity of minorities females and non caucasians we compare entrepreneurial activity between applicants who are accepted into the program with applicants who are program finalists but not accepted we find that the effect of the program is small for minorities in the short run however the effect of the program is more pronounced for minorities likelihood of longer run startup activity whereas the effect on non minorities is small and statistically insignificant we suggest that such programs are most effective for individuals that may otherwise have limited access to entrepreneurial opportunities

fiscal constraints and electoral manipulation in american social welfare a merican social welfare policy involves a politically significant fiscal interaction between short run pay as you go constraints and long run equilibrium constraints motivated by the contributory principle and the concept of actuarial soundness the fiscal constraints induce conflict between benefit recipients and payroll tax payers to support small election year reductions in payroll taxes means tested program benefits are slightly reduced in election years compared to non election year levels under similar economic conditions the existence of the constraints and of the election year changes is tested using a multivariate time series regression model of monthly transfer payments and contributions for social insurance during years 1948 87 short run dynamics arefound to be weakly incrementalist but otherwise the results support the argument extraordinary manipulations are identified during 1972 special technical features of the econometric analysis are a nonlinear dynamic specification robust generalized method of moments estimation and near cointegration

gender discrimination in microfinance some evidence from uganda abstractmicrofinance literature has proved the existence of gender discriminatory practices against women in some specific contexts discrimination is often explored from the access side loans approved or denied following agier and szafarz 2013 we deviate from this practice and use the variable loan size considering up to four loans for each client drawing on data from a microfinance programme in uganda we find no evidence of gender discrimination against women clients even though our results show that the loan size is influenced by personal characteristics and that women in contrast to men are rewarded according to their credit history

mortgage lending to minorities where s the bias this paper examines mortgage lending and concludes that studies based on data created by the boston fed should be reevaluated a detailed examination of these data indicates that irregularities in these data when combined with the most commonly used research methodology appear to have biased previous research toward a finding of discrimination against minority applicants when the most severe data irregularities are eliminated evidence to support a hypothesis of discrimination disappears the currently fashionable flexible underwriting standards of mortgage lenders may have the unintended consequences of increasing defaults for the beneficiaries of these policies

economies of scale and the demand for money cross sectional data from four surveys of small business finance demonstrate that economies of scale in money holding exist that these economies appear to be increasing over time and that the magnitudes are greater than those estimated for large us corporations firms not practising several specific cash management techniques and firms facing constraints in the credit market hold lower money balances minority owned firms exhibit economies of scale similar to the overall sample but cash management practices and credit constraint variables generally do not influence their money holding behavior scale economies vary widely across industries but overall means are relatively stable over time

further evidence of excess sensitivity of consumption nonseparability among goods and heterogeneity across households the standard theoretical framework for analysing households intertemporal decisions is the life cycle permanent income model among its implications testing the model allows to analyse the response of consumption to fiscal policy however the empirical literature with microdata has yielded mixed results this article examines the sensitivity of the results to the assumption of separability among goods and of homogeneity across households for that purpose we test a rational expectations permanent income model with household data drawn from the spanish family expenditure survey this survey contains detailed information on total expenditure and the income presents large exogenous quarterly changes due to an institutional feature the article shows that assuming separability among commodities biases the test against the model when separability is not imposed we show that the rejection of the model depends on heterogeneity across households in terms of their members being unemployed or not for those

determinants of consumption and savings behavior in developing countries the determinants of savings generally and the specific effects of government policies on savings and consumption are pivotal forces in investment and economic growth the hall hypothesis states that consumption is a function of lifetime permanent income rather than income in each period independently changes in interest and tax rates money supply or government expenditure will affect permanent income and hence consumption and savings only if they are unexpected and thus not already incorporated in the estimation of permanent income we are unable to reject the hall hypothesis in tests for developing countries when we allow for varying interest rates we do find evidence of a negative effect of inflation on consumption and a positive relationship between the real interest rate and consumption the evidence for the hall hypothesis also suggests that ricardian equivalence may be valid this is barro s hypothesis that the effect on savings is the same whether government deficits are financed through taxation or debt our preliminary testing however does not support ricardian equivalence savings is the part of one s current income that is not spent on current consumption and it constitutes a large part of a nation s aggregate savings and investment and thus is a major determinant of the growth of future income and consumption households balance the tradeoffs between current and future consumption possibilities when making their individual consumption decisions understanding the determinants of households consumption behavior has been central to macroeconomics the three main theoretical approaches to this issue are keynesian consumption theory the life cycle permanent income hypothesis under rational expectations and the theory of the infinitely lived agent or altruistically linked consumers the theories differ in the extent to which they explain the observed consumer behavior and in their predictions regarding the effects of government policies on individual savings behavior for instance increased taxes higher nominal interest rates or an increase in the money

economic adversity and voter turnout does economic adversity affect whether people vote data from the november 1974 current population survey are used to estimate the effect that unemployment poverty and a decline in financial well being have on voter turnout each economic problem suppresses participation these individual level findings are corroborated with aggregate time series data from presidential and midterm elections since 1896 when a person suffers economic adversity his scarce resources are spent holding body and soul together not on remote concerns like politics economic problems both increase the opportunity costs of political participation and reduce a person s capacity to attend to politics

information sharing in credit markets we present a model with adverse selection where information sharing between lenders arises endogenously lenders incentives to share information about borrowers are positively related to the mobility and heterogeneity of borrowers to the size of the credit market and to advances in information technology such incentives are instead reduced by the fear of competition from potential entrants in addition information sharing increases the volume of lending when adverse selection is so severe that safe borrowers drop out of the market these predictions are supported by international and historical evidence in the context of the consumer credit market a large body of literature on credit markets has shown that asymmetric information may prevent the efficient allocation of lending leading to credit rationing e g jaffee and russell 1976 stiglitz and weiss 1981 or to a wedge between lending and borrowing rates e g king 1986 in this literature informational asymmetries are taken to be exogenous lenders fail to observe some relevant characteristic or action of potential borrowers and have no way of learning about it in some countries however lenders can improve their knowledge about new customers by exchanging information with other lenders through information brokers generally known as credit bureaus the latter collect file and distribute the information voluntarily supplied by their members and operate on the principle of reciprocity lenders who do not provide data are denied access to the bureau s files in other countries instead these institutions do not exist the literature offers no guide to identify the factors that lead to endogenous communication between lenders this paper is an attempt to fill the gap information sharing is important for a number of reasons it may increase the degree of competitiveness within credit markets vives 1990 improve

the role of demographics in small business loan pricing demographic change influences the structure of the entrepreneurially active population which may affect credit risk and financing conditions of small firms using bank internal data of small business loans in germany we find that the lending relationship plays a larger role for loan prices than demographics loan rates decrease with soft information gained through longer loan processing time and a larger number of accounts at the same bank they increase with hard information about repayment arrears and reminders late payments have the largest influence on loan prices older entrepreneurs do not seem to be discriminated rather the younger have to pay more because their loans and businesses are smaller and they lack liquidity to pay in time marital status and population density of the business district do not matter this is good news for aging economies with a rising share of elderly and singles and growing disparities between peripheral and agglomerated regions

the impact of institutional sources of capital upon the minority oriented venture capital industry venture capital vc funds specializing in investing equity capital in minority owned businesses have grown rapidly over the past decade fueled by the willingness of major institutional investors to support this traditionally neglected niche we investigate impacts of public pension funds upon the minority vc sector these funds providing over half of all capital invested in minority vcs selectively invest seeking to fund only those vcs likely to generate high returns although they attempt to pick the winners our findings indicate that they have failed to do so the influence of public pension funds upon the minority vcs is nonetheless real skewing investing away from traditional practices and toward those of the venture capital mainstream in the process minority vcs funded by pension fund money invest in high tech fields more than other minority oriented vc funds do further they are less likely to fund minority owned small firms focusing increasingly upon firms owned by nonminority whites neither of these trends has resulted in increased returns rather diverting minority oriented vcs away from their traditional mission of investing in minority firms operating in a broad range of industries has resulted in lower returns over the years studied

venture capital investment in minority business this study analyzes the performance of mature investments made by venture capital vc funds that specialize in financing minority business enterprises we explore the hypothesis that vcs focusing on investing in minority businesses earn attractive returns because this market niche is underserved minority vc funds collectively earned yields on their realized investments that were estimated to be broadly equivalent to those of the mainstream vc industry however these yields vary greatly from fund to fund vc fund traits that predict high yields on individual investments are identified by estimating multivariate regressions explaining net investment returns copyright c 2008 the ohio state university

the economics of privacy the concept of privacy has received a good deal of attention from lawyers political scientists sociologists philosophers and psychologists but until recently very little from economists this neglect is on the mend see for example my 1978 1979a articles and forthcoming book chs 9 11 george stigler and in this paper i will report on the economic research on privacy in which i and others have been engaged some definitional clarification is necessary at the outset privacy is used today in at least three senses first it is used to mean the concealment of information indeed this is its most common meaning today second it is used to mean peace and quiet as when someone complains that telephone solicitations are an invasion of his privacy third it is used as a synonym for freedom and autonomy it is in this sense that the supreme court has used the word in subsuming the right to have an abortion under the right of privacy see my 1979b article pp 190 200 the third meaning of privacy need detain us only briefly to affix the term privacy to human freedom and autonomy as in jack hirshleifer is simply to relabel an old subject not to identify a new area for economic research the second meaning of the word privacy set out above invites a slightly novel application of economics it suggests an economic reason why certain cerebral workers have private offices and other manual workers do not why aversion to noise is associated with rising education and why certain low level invasions of a person s private space for example shoving a person roughly but without hurting him are tortious see my forthcoming book ch 10 but the range of economic applications in this area seems limited the first meaning of privacy set out above privacy as concealment of informationseems the most interesting from an economic standpoint there is a rich and growing literature on the economics of information it would seem that the same economic factors that determine search behavior by workers and consumers might also determine investments in obtaining and in shielding private information this insight emphasized in my 1978 article provides the starting point for the economic analysis of privacy to relate the economics of privacy to the economics of information in as clear a fashion as possible consider the example of the employer searching across employees and the employee searching across employers the employer is looking for certain traits in an employee that may not be obvious things like honesty diligence loyalty and good physical and mental health to the extent that the employee is deficient in one or more of these characteristics he has an incentivestrictly analogous to the incentive of a seller of goods to conceal product defectsto conceal these deficiencies that is he has an incentive to invoke a right of privacy if the employer tries to pry into his private life the concealment of personal characteristics in the employment contest retards rather than promotes the efficient sorting of employees to employers by reducing the amount of information available to the buyer in the labor market the employer it reduces the efficiency of that market the analysis can easily be generalized moreover to other markets some of them noneconomic in which private information is concealed an example is the marriage market the efficient sorting of females to males in that market is impeded if either spouse conceals material personal information the extended courtship that remains typical of the marriage market may be due in part to the efforts of prospective spouses to conceal their deficiencies from each other university of chicago law school

mortgage lending in boston a reconsideration of the evidence i introduction discrimination in the marketplace is often measured using statistical methods in order for the results to be interpretable as some form of discrimination it is necessary that these methods be firmly based on economic theories as to how these markets function the reason for this is that it is easy to confuse voluntary acts of segregation from involuntary acts of discrimination by the simple examination of statistical entrails the former is presumably acceptable to society whereas the latter is not any society that values its freedoms will want to ensure that a mis classification of the former as evidence of the latter is avoided claims of racial discrimination in mortgage lending provide an excellent arena to illustrate the issues that arise in statistically measuring discrimination in the united states data on mortgage applications has been collected for several years under the home mortgage disclosure act hmda these data show a persistent tendency for blacks to be denied mortgages at a greater rate than whites leading many political commentators to claim that they prove the existence and severity of racial discrimination one problem with the statistical measurement of discrimination is that the available data are often inadequate the hmda data has been criticized for not collecting all of the information germane to the loan decision such as the credit history or personal characteristics of the loan applicant and co applicant the argument is that blacks are denied loans more than whites because of these characteristics rather than the color of their skin whether or not this in turn reflects prior or concurrent racial discrimination in other markets e g in employment or housing or education is an intriguing question with important implications for policy reform in mortgage lending regulations 1 in an effort to address these concerns the federal reserve bank of boston undertook to augment the basic hmda data in the boston area with ancillary data on loan applicants see munnell et al 1992 1996 the vast bulk of these extra data were collected from the original loan application file at the bank of original application indicating that the information was viewed by the bank as relevant to the loan decision the boston fed study found that allowing for the characteristics of black applicants reduced the statistical importance of the applicant s race but that some racial discrimination remained specifically they find that black and hispanic applicants are roughly 60 more likely to be turned down just because of their ethnic origin the denial rate in this sample is about 17 for such applicants rather than the 11 denial rate for statistically equivalent whites although the study has been the subject of some controversy in the popular press 2 and policy circles 3 it remains an important effort to address these issues by directly collecting the primary data there are however some problems with the way in which these data are interpreted by munnell et al 1992 1996 these problem concern their statistical methods even if one accepts the economic model of mortgage lending decisions underlying their study simple corrections to their statistical procedures removes any evidence of discrimination an important conclusion echoing the boston fed study itself is to point out the dangers of drawing inferences about discrimination based on incomplete data moreover the simple statistical corrections considered here are the standard fare of textbooks and not from the fancy frontiers of econometrics hence it is likely to be useful in general to see why those textbook lessons are there by having them demonstrated explicitly in an important policy setting ii replicating the boston fed results the boston fed study began with the existing hmda database for mortgage applications in the boston area for 1990 4 the fed requested that banks augment their hmda reports for all applications made by blacks and hispanics and by a random sample of applications made by whites

unequal participation democracy s unresolved dilemma presidential address american political science association 1996 low voter turnout is a serious democratic problem for five reasons 1 it means unequal turnout that is systematically biased against less well to do citizens 2 unequal turnout spells unequal political influence 3 u s voter turnout is especially low but measured as percent of voting age population it is also relatively low in most other countries 4 turnout in midterm regional local and supranational elections less salient but by no means unimportant elections tends to be especially poor 5 turnout appears to be declining everywhere the problem of inequality can be solved by institutional mechanisms that maximize turnout one option is the combination of voter friendly registration rules proportional representation infrequent elections weekend voting and holding less salient elections concurrently with the most important national elections the other option which can maximize turnout by itself is compulsory voting its advantages far outweigh the normative and practical objections to it

saving in developing countries theory and review in the literature on economic development much of the interest in saving has been focused on the relation between saving and growth but saving is not only about accumulation it is about smoothing consumption in the face of volatile and unpredictable income and helping to ensure the living standards of poor people whose lives are difficult and uncertain this paper develops a model of households which cannot borrow but which accumulate assets as a buffer stock to protect consumption when incomes are low such households dissave as often as they save do not accumulate assets over the long term and have on average very small asset holdings but their consumption is markedly smoother than their income much of the evidence is as consistent with this view of saving as it is incosistent with standard views of smoothing over the life cycle and with explanations of the link between saving and growth in terms of life cycle saving behavior consumption smoothing is also a useful way of thinking about government policy where volatility in the world prices of taxed commodities can generate sharp fluctuations in government revenues as well as reallocations of revenue between the private and public sectors many important policy issues in developing countries hinge on issues of consumption and smoothing and research on these issues is currently likely to be more productive than work on the relation between saving and growth

minority entrepreneurship in twenty first century america prior to the 1970s minority owned small businesses were small in size and scope and common in only a few industry niches business owners were severely capital constrained lacking in higher education and training in skilled occupations the median owner today in contrast is college educated access to financing has expanded and opportunities to serve corporate and public sector clients are commonplace nearly 40 of all new firms created nationwide in 2015 were minority owned changing attitudes in mainstream society reduced traditional barriers true equality of opportunity among small minority and white owned firms of similar size and scope has nonetheless not been achieved this issue of small business economics examines lingering barriers impeding the development of a more vibrant minority business community focusing on access to financing and government procurement markets articles in this issue offer explicit analyses of enduring barriers along with explanations of adoptive strategic firm behavior appropriate for reducing those barriers

access to credit by small businesses how relevant are race ethnicity and gender this paper employs data from the 1998 and 2003 survey of small business finances to analyze whether after controlling for observable factors that influence loan decisions there is a significant difference in the loan approval rate and the interest rate charged on approved loans for businesses owned by minority or white females and firms owned by white males

gender gap in peer to peer lending evidence from china abstract this paper documents and analyzes the gender gap in the online credit market using data from renrendai a leading peer to peer lending platform in china we show that lending to female borrowers is associated with better loan performance including a lower probability of default a higher expected profit and a lower expected loss than for their male peers however despite the higher creditworthiness we don t find any measurable gender impact on funding success rate meaning that female borrowers have to compensate lenders by providing higher profitability to achieve a similar funding probability these evidences indicate the existence of a gender gap that discriminate against female borrowers further analysis implies that this gender gap is independent of the amount of information disclosed by borrowers

policy motivation and party differences in a dynamic spatial model of party competition we present a model of party competition that produces more realistic patterns of results than those often emphasized in the literature reversing downs 1957 we assume that parties win elections in order to formulate policies rather than formulate policies in order to win elections voters are modeled first as having perfect information about candidate positions and then under conditions of uncertainty in simulation experiments we show that policy motivation and voter uncertainty can bring about persistent and predictable party differences in sequential majority rule elections as the degree of voter certainty decreases parties diverge towards their optima whereas increases in voter certainty draw parties towards cycles in which party positions vary but predictable issue stances are maintained on the average

subjectivity in credit allocation to micro entrepreneurs evidence from brazil this paper estimates the impact of loan officer subjectivity on microcredit granting by exploiting an exceptionally detailed database from a brazilian microfinance institution the loan officers collect field data meet with applicants and make recommendations to the credit committee which has the final say on both loan approval and loan size ls the loan officer s subjectivity is captured through gender bias our estimations indeed show subjective gender gap in ls this gap is almost exclusively attributable to loan officers we interpret this finding as evidence that despite monitoring and wage incentivization microcredit officers let their subjective preferences interfere with loan granting we conclude by suggesting alternative means to curb subjectivity in credit allocation to micro entrepreneurs

gender bias and credit access we extract an exogenous measure of gender bias from survey responses by descendants of u s immigrants on questions about the role of women in society we then use data on around 6 000 small business firms from 17 countries and find that in high gender bias countries female entrepreneurs are more likely to opt out of the loan application process and to resort to informal finance even though banks do not appear to actively discriminate against them these results are not driven by credit risk differences between female and male owned firms or by any idiosyncrasies in the set of countries in our sample

experience tenure and the perceptions of employers this paper examines how group based assessments concerning employee ability impact employee compensation the employer learns about worker ability through bayesian updating creating an additional channel for wage growth that is not available to those workers with only general labor market experience consistent with the model s predictions results from national longitudinal survey of youth nlsy indicate that black workers fare much better relative to white workers in returns to tenure than in returns to experience finally parameter estimates in the structural model suggest that employers initially undervalue black males but that their wages rise with learning by employers over time on average black males earn lower wages than white males just as average wages differ across many groups this paper examines one explanation for this wage gap the possibility that employers underestimate the ability of workers in one or more groups in particular this paper proposes a model that provides explicit predictions about the affect of employer s perceptions on workers returns to general experience and tenure on the job we then examine the wage growth of young males to see whether patterns are consistent with the model economic theory provides many other explanations for differences in wages across groups

competition small business financing and discrimination evidence from a new survey we analyze credit applications loan denials and interest rates paid by small businesses across owner gender race and ethnicity in addition we examine data from owners who said they did not apply for credit because they believed that their applications would have been turned down after controlling for a rich set of explanatory variables including personal and business credit histories substantial differences in denial rates between firms owned by african americans and white males remain moreover consistent with becker s classic theories 1957 we find evidence that increases in competition in the firm s local banking market reduces these differences

private saving interest rates and liquidity constraints in ldcs recent evidence there is still considerable controversy about the interest rate responsiveness of private saving in developing countries this paper provides recent evidence based on individual country estimations for a sample of 16 countries the model used here follows the uler equation approach and includes rational and forward looking permanent income consumers together with liquidity constrained consumers overall for this sample of countries the results obtained in this paper offer new evidence of a low responsiveness of saving to changes in the interest rate my results also support a strong role of liquidity constraints in these countries