this time it s different an inevitable decline in world petroleum production will keep oil product prices high causing military conflicts and shifting wealth and power from democracies to authoritarian regimes abstract there is virtual agreement among geologists that world production of conventional oil will peak at some point in the future oil after all is a finite resource while demand will only grow over time geologists disagree however exactly when the peak will occur using data from the international energy agency the us department of energy the association for the study of peak oil and gas and petroleum industry sources we argue that conventional oil production will reach a worldwide maximum within the next 5 10 years earlier than generally estimated thus leaving a very short time frame within which to plan for conversion to alternative sources of energy unless planning is initiated immediately the united states and other western democracies will see their positions in the global economy undercut as military conflicts over limited energy resources increase and wealth and power are shifted to authoritarian regimes in russia venezuela africa and the middle east

oil vulnerability index of oil importing countries abstract this paper assesses the relative oil vulnerability of 26 net oil importing countries for the year 2004 on the basis of various indicators the ratio of value of oil imports to gross domestic product gdp oil consumption per unit of gdp gdp per capita and oil share in total energy supply ratio of domestic reserves to oil consumption exposure to geopolitical oil market concentration risks as measured by net oil import dependence diversification of supply sources political risk in oil supplying countries and market liquidity the approach using the principal component technique has been adopted to combine these individual indicators into a composite index of oil vulnerability such an index captures the relative sensitivity of various economies towards developments of the international oil market with a higher index indicating higher vulnerability the results show that there are considerable differences in the values of individual indicators of oil vulnerability and overall oil vulnerability index among the countries both inter and intraregional

china and the relationship between the oil price and the dollar abstract we study cointegration and causality between the real price of oil and the real price of the dollar over the 1974 2004 period our results suggest that a 10 rise in the oil price coincides with a 4 3 appreciation of the dollar in the long run and that the causality runs from oil to the dollar through the development of a theoretical model we then investigate possible reasons why this relationship could be reversed in the future due to the emergence of china as a major player on both the oil and the foreign exchange markets

oil prices inflation and interest rates in a structural cointegrated var model for the g 7 countries sharp increases in the price of oil are generally seen as a major contributor to business cycle asymmetries moreover the very recent highs registered in the world oil market are causing concern about possible slowdowns in the economic performance of the most developed countries in this paper a structural cointegrated var model has been considered for the g 7 countries in order to study the direct effects of oil price shocks on output and prices and the reaction of monetary variables to external shocks our results can be summarized as follows i a stationary money demand as suggested by the classic theory of money can be identified for most countries ii according to the estimated coefficients of the structural part of the model for all countries except japan and u k the null hypothesis of an influence of oil prices on the inflation rate cannot be rejected inflation rate shocks are transmitted to the real economy by increasing interest rates iii impulse response analysis suggests for most countries the existence of an instantaneous temporary effect of oil price innovations on prices iv impulse response functions indicate different monetary policy reactions to inflationary and growth shocks v the simulation exercises directed to estimate the total impact of the 1990 oil price shock indicate that for some countries u s a significant part of the effects of the oil price shock is due to the monetary policy reaction function for other countries canada france and italy however the total impact is offset at least in part by an easing of monetary conditions

oil price shocks and real gdp growth empirical evidence for some oecd countries this study assesses empirically the effects of oil price shocks on the real economic activity of the main industrialized countries multivariate var analysis is carried out using both linear and non linear models the latter category includes three approaches employed in the literature namely the asymmetric scaled and net specifications evidence of a non linear impact of oil prices on real gdp is found in particular oil price increases are found to have an impact on gdp growth of a larger magnitude than that of oil price declines with the latter being statistically insignificant in most cases among oil importing countries oil price increases are found to have a negative impact on economic activity in all cases but japan moreover the effect of oil shocks on gdp growth differs between the two oil exporting countries in the sample with the uk being negatively affected by an oil price increase and norway benefiting from it

endogenous technological change and emissions the case of the german steel industry abstract the paper starts from the observation that innovation and technical progress are only portrayed superficially in the predominant environmental economic top down models and that the assumption of perfect factor substitution does not correctly mirror actual production conditions in many energy intensive production sectors bottom up models on the other hand neglect macroeconomic interdependencies between the modelled sector and the general economy this paper presents a new modelling approach in an integrated bottom up top down approach based on the example of crude steel production in germany it is demonstrated how technological progress can be portrayed as process related and policy induced and how the technology choice between limitational processes can be explicitly modelled and implemented in the econometric input output model panta rhei the new modelling approach presented permits a process specific analysis of the impacts of changed frame conditions the effects of which on the choice of technology on the one hand and the technological progress on the other can be described endogenous to the model these features are demonstrated in a co2 tax simulation results show that policy induced technological change is besides a switch in production processes the major source of co2 reduction for the steel sector

oil and the macroeconomy since world war ii all but one of the u s recessions since world war ii have been preceded typically with a lag of around three fourths of a year by a dramatic increase in the price of crude petroleum this does not mean that oil shocks caused these recessions evidence is presented however that even over the period 1948 72 this correlation is statistically significant and nonspurious supporting the proposition that oil shocks were a contributing factor in at least some of the u s recessions prior to 1972 by extension energy price increases may account for much of post opec macroeconomic performance

oil shock and economic growth in japan a nonlinear approach abstract this paper investigates the relationship between oil price shock and economic growth on the basis of the nonlinear approach developed by hamilton hamilton j 2001 a parametric approach to flexible nonlinear inference econometrica 537 573 we use the approach also in hamilton hamilton j 2003 what is an oil shock journal of econometrics 363 398 of capturing this relationship in japan in a nonlinear model the idea is that negative oil price shocks price increase tend to have larger impact on growth than positive shocks do our empirical evidence confirmed the existence of nonlinearity between these two variables and a flexible nonlinear model is estimated additionally several other form of nonlinearity are estimated and tested

joint ventures in yugoslavia opportunities and constraints yugoslavia s post 1965 economic policies have been directed towards opening the economy to foreign trade and encouraging inward investment in joint ventures this research examines the opportunities and constraints facing western multinational companies which invest in joint ventures in yugoslav industry the empirical evidence drawn from a sample of 42 west european and north american companies addresses itself to the formation and success of joint ventures the route to foreign direct investment in yugoslavia and motives and preferences for joint ventures to other forms of industrial cooperation

are free agents perspicacious peregrinators the perspicacious peregrinator model of solomon w polachek and francis w horvath hypothesizes that individuals decide to migrate based on the size of potential gains this model is tested using themigration decisions of major league baseball players between 1977 and1979 potential gains are measure d as the differ ence between earnings with and without migration a distinction is made between players eligible for free agency and those ineligible so as to a ccount for differences in the level of competition for players services in diff erent segments of this market migration is found tobe related to the expected gain from earnings for players eligible for free agency but not for those ineli gible copyright 1987 by mit press

price of oil and world inflation and recession new evidence shows that the commonly held assumption that the 1973 74 oil price increase directly affected us and world inflation and subsequent recession is consistent with the empirical data an extended lucas varro real income equation applied to the us united kingdom canada france germany italy japan and the netherlands gives mixed results partly because of price control and decontrol programs simulation experiments on the price control variable using us data finds strong effects further studies can be made when consistent international data is available for the 1979 80 period 18 references 4 figures 3 tables dck

the impact of oil price shocks evidence from the industries of six oecd countries most of the studies about the macroeconomic consequences of oil price shocks have been focused on us aggregate data in contrast to these studies this paper empirically assesses the dynamic effect of oil price shocks on the output of the main manufacturing industries in six oecd countries the pattern of responses to an oil price shock by industrial output is diverse across the four european monetary union emu countries under consideration france germany italy and spain but broadly similar in the uk and the us moreover evidence on cross industry heterogeneity of oil shock effects within the emu countries is also reported

this is what happened to the oil price macroeconomy relationship abstract many of the quarterly oil price increases observed since 1985 are corrections to even bigger oil price decreases the previous quarter when one looks at the net increase in oil prices over the year recent data are consistent with the historical correlation between oil shocks and recessions

reverse globalization does high oil price volatility discourage international trade this paper examines whether higher oil price volatility causes a reversal in globalization using a large annual panel data set covering 84 countries all over the world from 1984 to 2008 we investigate the impacts of oil price fluctuations on international trade namely exports and imports we present strong and robust evidence that international trade flows will be lower when oil prices fluctuate significantly we therefore conclude that oil price volatility hurts globalization

measuring performance of international joint ventures international joint ventures ijvs are increasing in frequency and strategic importance however efforts to identify variables associated with ijv performance have been constrained by disagreements regarding the comparability and reliability of alternative performance measures and methods this study tests several hypotheses regarding the reliability and comparability of a range of objective and subjective measures of ijv performance as well as evaluating the relative utility of different data collection approaches

material efficiency and economic environmental sustainability results of simulations for germany with the model panta rhei abstract based on empirical evidence the paper discusses the impact of a consulting and information program for the improvement of material productivity with regard to economic and environmental targets for germany the instrument used in the analysis is the integrated economic environmental model panta rhei which is parameterized econometrically the paper presents the model and shows in a baseline forecast that without policy changes sustainability will be violated in both the economic and the environmental dimensions this applies to the latter particularly with regard to land use and material consumption the alternative simulation that introduces a consulting and information program for the improvement of material productivity yields a win win result growth rates of gdp and employment are rising the public debt is reduced and material consumption is much lower than in the baseline and remains at the actual level which means that a decoupling of growth and material consumption is possible

renewable energy and employment in germany abstract the positive impacts of an increasing share of renewable energy on the mitigation of climate change as well as on the decrease of the dependency of energy imports are indisputable however one persistent problem for the german economy has been its high level of unemployment in the recent past therefore any policy strategy will be measured also by its net impact on the labor market the paper describes the results of a study that models this impact and is novel within three respects firstly an input output vector for the renewable energy sector was developed based on the results of more than 1000 interviews with an extensive questionnaire secondly gross and net effect of two different policy scenarios for germany until 2030 were calculated and thirdly the approach varies from earlier studies by its explicit modeling of export and foreign trade effects

endogenous technological change and the policy mix in renewable power generation abstract this paper introduces the renewable power generation module which complements large scale macro econometric input output models by introducing technological change endogenously into the model so far technological change in renewable power generation technologies is either set exogenously autonomous energy improving technological change or price induced in economic models introducing endogenous technological change is necessary to adequately analyze not only the direct effects but also the indirect effects on important macro economic indicators such as growth employment welfare and trade as well as their feedback to the electricity sector the development of pv module and wind turbine prices is modeled using learning curves at the global scale i e depending on global capacity installed of each of these technologies national capacity additions in turn depend on global prices national policies and economic development while demand pull policies enhance capacity installations technology push policies do not seem to have a significant direct influence the empirical results confirm the overshooting of pv installations in germany which can be slowed down by introducing degression of feed in tariffs over time

economic effects of peak oil assuming that global oil production peaked this paper uses scenario analysis to show the economic effects of a possible supply shortage and corresponding rise in oil prices in the next decade on different sectors in germany and other major economies such as the us japan china the opec or russia due to the price inelasticity of oil demand the supply shortage leads to a sharp increase in oil prices in the second scenario with high effects on gdp comparable to the magnitude of the global financial crises in 2008 09 oil exporting countries benefit from high oil prices whereas oil importing countries are negatively affected generally the effects in the third scenario are significantly smaller than in the second showing that energy efficiency measures and the switch to renewable energy sources decreases the countries dependence on oil imports and hence reduces their vulnerability to oil price shocks on the world market

economic impacts of higher oil and gas prices the role of international trade for germany the analysis concentrates on direct and indirect price increases induced shifts in international trade and structural changes in the oil importing economies the paper at hand asks whether a stabilizing effect via international trade and domestic structural change on the gdp of oil importing countries can be observed if a permanent oil price increase occurs at least for germany structural change from consumer goods to investment goods industry and an improvement of international competitiveness limit negative impacts of increased energy prices analysis is based on the extensive and disaggregated global ginfors model and the detailed inforge model for the german economy

oil prices and economic activity an asymmetric cointegration approach the aim of this paper is to study the long term relationship between oil prices and economic activity proxied by gdp to account for asymmetries existing in the links between the two variables we propose an approach based on asymmetric cointegration our empirical analysis concerns the u s economy but also the g7 europe and euro area economies results indicate that while standard cointegration is rejected there is evidence for asymmetric cointegration between oil prices and gdp

oil and the macroeconomy when prices go up and down an extension of hamilton s results in an important paper hamilton 1983 demonstrated a strong correlation between oil price changes and gross national product growth in u s data however his study pertained to a period in which all the large oil price movements were upward and thus it left unanswered the question whether the correlation persists in periods of price decline moreover the price variable he used was somewhat distorted by price controls in the 1970s this note investigates whether hamilton s results continue to hold when the sample is extended to include the recent oil market collapse and the oil price variable is corrected for the effects of price controls particular attention is given to the possibility of asymmetric responses to oil price increases and decreases as suggested in the structural employment literature loungani 1986 davis 1987 hamilton 1988 like hamilton i based my investigation on the gnp equation in sims s 1 980b six variable quarterly vector autoregressive model