causes of the forward bias non rational expectations versus risk premia the sources of the systematic forward bias in the foreign exchange market are sought a theoretical framework based on some well known international parity conditions is developed in order to derive testable hypotheses these are a only risk premia account for the observed deviations between forward and future sport rate c anticipated real exchange rate changes explain part of the bias the provided evidence is not consistent with any of these hypotheses which in turn implies that part of the bias may be due to non rational expectations

methodical madness technical analysis and the irrationality of exchange rate forecasts substantial empirical research documents that exchange rate forecasts are not formed rationally this paper identifies a common technical trading signal the head and shoulders pattern as a potential source of departures from rationality in exchange rate forecasts forecasts based on this pattern are evaluated for daily dollar exchange rates over 1973 to 1994 using two criteria for rationality profitability and efficiency resulting profits replicable in real time are tested for statistical significance using a bootstrap technique we find that the rule is profitable but not efficient since it is dominated by simpler trading rules

aspects of labor market adjustments in japan this article discusses some aspects of labor market adjustments in japan that may be relevant to the low unemployment rate there japanese statistics treat kyugyosha persons not at work as being employed but some of these workers would be counted as unemployed in the united states the kyugyosha group appears to increase in size during downturns and decreases during upturns suggesting that temporarily laid off persons are an important part of this group japanese employers evidently rely less on employment adjustments and more on adjustments in hours of work and inventory while employers in the united states rely more on employment adjustments to deal with cyclical changes in product demand japanese manufacturing employment became less sensitive and hours of work more sensitive to demand shocks after the introduction of the employment insurance law in 1975

rational expectations as long run equilibria tests for indian securities abstract it is recommended that the standard bias test for muth rational expectations should be augmented in the form of a dynamic model amongst other advantages this approach permits the researcher to test unbiasedness as a long run equilibrium of the underlying dynamic adjustment process relating expectations to realizations the approach is applied to a new data set on traders expectations in the madras stock exchange although bias is generally found in the short run the long run equilibrium is consistent with rational expectations in about half the cases studied significant steady state biases are indicated for the remainder

green goals and full employment are they compatible abstract two empirical correlations are studied one between economic growth and environmental impacts and the other between the lack of economic growth and unemployment it is demonstrated that at a global level economic growth is strongly correlated with environmental impacts and barriers to fast decoupling are large and numerous on the other hand low or negative growth is highly correlated with increasing unemployment in most market economies and strategies to change this lead to difficult questions and tradeoffs the coexistence of these two correlations which have rarely been studied together in the literature on green growth degrowth and a growth justifies ambivalence about growth to make key environmental goals compatible with full employment the decoupling of environmental impacts from economic output has to be accompanied by a reduction of dependence on growth in particular strategies to tackle unemployment without the need for growth several of which are studied in this article need much more attention in research and policy

predictability in financial markets what do survey expectations tell us abstract there is widespread evidence of excess return predictability in financial markets for the foreign exchange market a number of studies have documented that the predictability of excess returns is closely related to the predictability of expectational errors of excess returns in this paper we investigate the link between the predictability of excess returns and expectational errors in a much broader set of financial markets using data on survey expectations of market participants in the stock market the foreign exchange market the bond market and money markets in various countries the results are striking first in markets where there is significant excess return predictability expectational errors of excess returns are predictable as well with the same sign and often even with similar magnitude this is the case for foreign exchange stock and bond markets second in the only market where excess returns are generally not predictable the money market expectational errors are not predictable either these findings suggest that an explanation for the predictability of excess returns must be closely linked to an explanation for the predictability of expectational errors

the macroeconomic implications of profit sharing some empirical evidence the macroeconomic implications of profit sharing some empiricals paper attempts an empirical assessment of weitzman s proposition that profit sharing provides an antidote to stagflation taking japan as an example of a profit sharing economy the author shows that it does not have either lower cyclical variability of output or lower inflation than other industrial countries the authors then reject the propositions that in a profit sharing economy 1 aggregate demand shocks have a smaller effect on output deviations and 2 import price shocks and wage push have a smaller effect on inflation therefore one should be wary of the claim that the japanese case supports weitzman s model copyright 1987 by royal economic society

a note on exchange rate expectations and nominal interest differentials a test of the fisher hypothesis this note tests the hypothesis that nominal interest differentials between similar assets denominated in different currencies can be explained entirely by the expected change in the exchange rate over the holding period this proposition often called the fisher open hypothesis or the hypothesis of perfect asset substitutability has been a major component of recent theories of exchange rate determination and has important implications for monetary policy 1 the fisher hypothesis differs from the covered interest parity theorem enunciated by keynes 11 while covered interest parity equates the nominal interest differential between financial centers to a known premium or discount on forward foreign exchange and is thus in principle riskless fisher parity involves risk in an essential way the two conditions are equivalent only when forward exchange rates equal expected future spot rates recent theoretical work for example that of grauer litzenberger and stehle 8 kouri 12 and frankel 6 shows that this need not be the case when market participants are risk averse thus while covered interest parity must always hold exactly in an informationally efficient asset market with no transactions costs fisher parity need not nominal interest differentials may reflect risk premia in addition to expected exchange rate movements 2 it should be emphasized at the outset that the tests conducted in this paper are really joint tests of the fisher hypothesis and a weak form of foreign exchange market informational efficiency levich 14 has argued that tests of market efficiency are always joint tests involving some hypothesized structure of normal equilibrium returns below we assume informational efficiency and instead test fisher s hypothesized arbitrage condition that nominal interest differentials equal expected percentage changes in exchange rates

residential hedonic models a rational expectations approach to age effects abstract this paper develops a rational expectations framework for interpreting the coefficient on age in a standard hedonic model the model demonstrates that there are two components to the age coefficient a pure cross sectional depreciation component and a demand side component that changes over time we also show that a constant quality price index with age constant can be estimated by using any repeat sales database that contains the year of construction or property age when fairfax county data are fitted to the model the time series of age coefficients is non stationary they change from negative in the early 1980s to positive in the late 1980s we infer that the demand side component dominated in the latter period

expectation formation mechanisms profitability of foreign exchange trading and exchange rate volatility an attempt is made to identify the expectation formation mechanism dominating the foreign exchange market and to demonstrate that exchange rate volatility can be attributed to the heterogeneity of traders with respect to expectation formation the criterion used to identify the dominance of a particular mechanism is the profitability of trading based on that mechanism it is concluded that mixed and extrapolative expectations are the dominant mechanisms that market participants follow some sort of a herd behaviour and that they pay attention to the expectations of other participants it is also found that the heterogeneity of market participants with respect to expectation formation goes a long way towards explaining volatility

trends in unemployment wages and productivity the case of japan along with the high savings ratio the functioning of the labour market is one of the most important factors behind the macroeconomic performance of the postwar japan which foreign observers have christened the miracle of the rising sun in the first place the nature of the japanese labour market is important for the long run trend of japanese economic growth because labour and its quality are crucial factors for economic development the high quality of a well disciplined workforce as well as the migration of labour from rural to urban areas has contributed much to the rapid growth of the japanese economy second the nature of the labour market has influenced the pattern of japanese business cycles by buffering demand fluctuations the slow response of firms demand for labour combined with the fast response of the labour force participation ratio has prevented a sharp increase in the unemployment rate during recessions relatively flexible nominal and real wages have also enabled the japanese economy to adjust quite smoothly to supply shocks notably after the second oil crisis in this paper we shall review trends in unemployment wages and productivity in the postwar japanese economy and relate them to its macroeconomic performance we shall also summarize the current literature concerning features of the labour market evaluate quantitative estimates of trends in labour statistics and explore future prospects

using survey data to test standard propositions regarding exchange rate expectations survey data provide a measure of exchange rate expectations superior to the forward rate in that no risk premium interferes we estimate extrapolative adaptive and regressive models of expectations static or random walk expectations and bandwagon expectations are rejected current appreciation generates the expectation of future depreciation because variables other than the contemporaneous spot rate receive weight in comparing expectations to the process governing the spot rate we find statistically significant bias no variable is as ubiquitous in international financial theory and yet as elusive empirically as investors expectations regarding exchange rates in the past expectations have been modeled in an ad hoc way often by using the forward exchange rate there is however a serious problem with using the forward discount as the measure of the expected change in the exchange rate in that the two may not be equal the gap that may separate the forward discount and expected depreciation is generally interpreted as a risk premium most of the large empirical literature testing the unbiasedness of the forward exchange rate for example has found it necessary either arbitrarily to assume away the existence of the risk premium if the aim

the carry trade and fundamentals nothing to fear but feer itself the carry trade is the investment strategy of going long in high yield target currencies and short in low yield funding currencies recently this nave trade has seen very high returns for long periods followed by large crash losses after large depreciations of the target currencies based on low sharpe ratios and negative skew these trades could appear unattractive even when diversied across many currencies but more sophisticated conditional trading strategies exhibit more favorable payos we apply novel within economics binary outcome classication tests to show that our directional trading forecasts are informa tive and out of sample loss function analysis to examine trading performance the critical conditioning variable we argue is the fundamental equilibrium exchange rate feer expected returns are lower all else equal when the target currency is overvalued like traders researchers should incorporate this information when evaluating trading strategies when we do so some questions are resolved negative skewness is purged and market volatility vix is uncorrelated with returns other puzzles remain the more sophisticated strategy has a very high sharpe ratio suggesting market ineciency

exchange rate expectations and functional misspecification the authors employ the cooley prescott adaptive model to examine for functional misspecification in three commonly used exchange rate expectation models they also test for heterogeneity among forecasts the authors find no serious misspecification problem but some heterogeneity in expectations these test results are confirmed by various other regression specification tests copyright 1994 by mit press

international interest rate linkages and the exchange rate regime abstract return differentials between instruments denominated in canadian dollars and instruments denominated in american dollars are investigated the study compares the properties of return differentials in the period of fixed exchange rates during the 1960s and in the period of flexible exchange rates during the 1970s and 1980s both real and nominal return differentials are investigated the results indicate that the change in exchange rate regime is not associated with a change in the average level of ex post return differentials between canada and the united states models which predict ex ante return differentials from available information in a rational expectations framework show a surprisingly large amount of structural stability across the regime change the major impact of the flexible exchange rate regime is on the variance of ex post return differentials and not on the average level of ex post or ex ante return differentials jel e42 e58 g15

on the consistency of short run and long run exchange rate expectations abstract this paper examines whether short term exchange rate expectations overreact by comparing them with long term expectations we develop a set of nonlinear restrictions linking expectations at different forecast horizons the restrictions impose consistency a property weaker than rationality we use exchange rate survey data to measure expectations and then test whether consistency holds the data show that a current positive exchange rate shock leads investors to expect a higher long run future spot rate when iterating forward their short term expectations than when thinking directly about the long run in this sense short horizon expectations may overreact to current exchange rate changes

market efficiency and cointegration an application to the sterling and deutschemark exchange markets abstract the assumption that the foreign exchange market is efficient that is that agents are risk neutral and use all available information rationally so that the forward exchange rate is an unbiased predictor of the future spot rate is a property often imposed in theoretical international macroeconomic models although a vast empirical literature has evolved to test market efficiency we use recent developments in the theory of cointegration to provide new methods of testing several aspects of foreign exchange market efficiency we ffind evidence inconsistent with market efficiency for both germany and the united kingdom

are foreign exchange forecasts rational an empirical note abstract this paper uses survey data drawn from a high inflation economy israel to directly test the rationality of foreign exchange forecasts the empirical evidence indicates that exchange rate expectations are not rational in the muthian sense

on the internal consistency of short term medium term and long term oil price forecasts we derive internal consistency restrictions on short medium and long term oil price forecasts we then analyse whether oil price forecasts extracted from the survey of professional forecasters spf conducted by the european central bank ecb satisfy these internal consistency restrictions we find that neither short term forecasts are consistent with medium term forecasts nor that medium term forecasts are consistent with long term forecasts using a more complex expectation formation structure featuring a distributed lag structure however we find stronger evidence of internal consistency of medium term forecasts with long term forecasts

rational expectations in the foreign exchange market some survey evidence this paper uses a survey data set that includes a large cross section of currencies to test for the rationality of expectations in the foreign exchange market two standard tests are applied to the data first a test to determine if investors make systematic forecast errors second a test to determine if investors use all available information efficiently when they make their forecasts this paper s data set involves a more recent time period which saw more quiescent exchange rate changes than the 1980s this paper finds that participants in the foreign exchange market do make systematic forecast errors and do not always use all available information when forecasting this conclusion is similar to past research but is now extended to a broader range of currencies and more recent time period

tests of rational expectations and no risk premium in forward exchange markets abstract this paper tests the simple efficiency hypothesis i e that traders have rational expectations and charge no risk premium in the forward exchange market it uses a statistical procedure which is consistent under a large class of heteroscedasticity and a set of data which takes into account the institutional features of the forward exchange market the results show that this procedure leads to stronger rejections of the simple efficiency hypothesis than do procedures using the standard assumption of homoscedasticity

inefficiency of foreign exchange markets and expectations survey evidence in recent years the finding of a bias has cast doubts on the efficiency of the forward exchange market a large survey of exchange rate expectations in the danish market shows that this inefficiency is mainly due to risk aversion in the market the results contradict the findings of surveys of us and uk forward exchange markets where contribution from biased expectations has been large

labour supply and unemployment in japan abstract the paper investigated the relationship between labour supply and unemployment employment in japan the paper focused on the discouraged worker effect which specifies that a large number of workers in particular female labour forces retire from the labour market in a recession this lowers the rate of the published unemployment the paper estimated the labour supply function and presented the estimated figures of the modified or adjusted rate of unemployment finally the okun s coefficient was re estimated by using this modified rate of unemployment

differential interpretation of information in inflation forecasts we test the hypothesis associated with a standard assumption in the theoretical literature on learning that economic agents interpret information identically we use a data set based on a survey o

do dollar forecasters believe too much in ppp this article extends earlier studies on exchange rate expectations formation by using new data and adding information about forecasters reliance on fundamental analysis for the first time we replicate the conventional result of nonrational expectations moreover biases in expectations are identified as professionals significantly believe too much in mean reversion mean being represented by purchasing power parity ppp when respondents are grouped on their reliance to fundamental analysis fundamentalists reveal an even stronger bias those who rely the least on fundamentals preferring technical analysis instead show a significantly smaller bias towards ppp in lieu of expecting too much trend extrapolation biased beliefs will grow stronger when the us dollar is further away from ppp finally the accuracy of the expectations is poor for both groups however we find directional forecasting ability

are foreign exchange forecasts rational new evidence from survey data abstract tests of rationality in foreign exchange markets have been inconclusive because of disagreement over the relevant asset pricing model this paper uses a newly available set of data on foreign exchange expectations to directly test the rationality of four foreign currency markets overall the results reject the rational expectations hypothesis

the relationship between production and unemployment in japan okun s law in comparative perspective abstract this paper studies the question whether the celebrated okun s law a relation between excess capacity and unemployment applies to the postwar japanese economy though the fitness of estimation is weak the coefficient that measures the responsiveness of the output gap to the unemployment rate is very large reaching 28 this large coefficient can be attributed to the elastic response in the female participation ratio to flexible working hours to the slow adjustment in employment and to changes in industrial structures the results are compared with those in the united states

rationality of survey data and tests for market efficiency in the foreign exchange markets abstract this paper tests the rational expectations hypothesis reh and the market efficiency hypothesis meh in the foreign exchange markets using survey data on expectations our results show that the spot exchange rates expected exchange rates and the forward rates all follow a random walk process hence the cointegration theory is employed to test the reh and meh all the test statistics support the reh but fail to support the meh we use survey data on expectations to identify the causes behind this failure of the meh jel f31 g14

further evidence on exchange rate expectations abstract this paper considers a previously unexploited survey data set of exchange rate expectations which allows us to focus on differences between ems and dollar exchange rates we corroborate the earlier finding in the literature that exchange rate forecasts are not rational and that agents do not use all available information efficiently although extrapolative and adaptive expectations formation mechanisms describe non ems exchange rate expectations to a certain extent ems exchange rates forecasts seem to follow long run fundamentals more closely and would suggest that agents believe that ems exchange rate expectations undershoot their long run equilibrium values jel f31

does foreign exchange intervention matter the portfolio effect until recently there was an unusual degree of consensus among economists that intervention by central banks in the foreign exchange market did not offer an effective or lasting instrument for affecting the exchange rate at least not independently of monetary policy this consensus was largely shared among policymakers and participants in the financial markets as well the 1982 g 7 economic summit at versailles commissioned a study of intervention known as the jurgenson report which found that the effects were small and transitory at most we think that the time is ripe for new statistical testing of the question many policymakers and foreign exchange traders believe that the intervention operations that have taken place since the plaza agreement of september 1985 have had an effect especially when operations are coordinated moreover the theoretical case against the effectiveness of intervention is not as clear as a reading of the economics literature might suggest the academic literature is predicated on the distinction between intervention operations that are sterilized and those that are allowed to affect the money supply we study the intervention operations that actually took place between 1982 and 1988 regardless of whether they were sterilized however we do begin in section i with a review of the issues involved 2 there are two possible channels through which intervention whether sterilized or not can influence the foreign exchange rate the portfolio and the expectations channels intervention can even if sterilized influence exchange rates through the portfolio channel provided foreign and domestic bonds are considered imperfect substitutes in investors portfolios intervention operations that for example increase the current relative supply of mark to dollar assets which private investors are obliged to accept into their portfolios will force a decrease in the relative price of mark assets 3 intervention can also influence exchange rates regardless of whether foreign and domestic bonds are imperfect substitutes through the expectations channel the public information that central banks are intervening in support of a currency or are planning to intervene in the future may under certain conditions cause speculators to expect an increase in the price of that currency in the future speculators react to this information by buying the currency today bringing about the change in the exchange rate today in sections ii and iii we describe the econometric problems that arise in the standard portfolio balance estimation equation we derive an alternative portfolio balance dominguez kennedy school of government harvard university 79 j f kennedy street cambridge ma 02138 frankel department of economics university of california 787 evans hall berkeley ca 94720 we thank three anonymous referees for valuable comments and suggestions julia marsh and julia lowell for research assistance and franz scholl at the bundesbank jean pierre roth at the swiss national bank and officials at the u s treasury and the board of governors of the federal reserve system for making the daily intervention data available 1many of the econometric results finding little or no effect were reported in kenneth s rogoff 1984 and dale w henderson and stephanie sampson 1983 2for authoritative statements see henderson 1984 or maurice obstfeld 1990 3the exchange rate reaction to an increase in the relative supply of outside foreign assets may be reduced if there is an increase in their expected rate of return that induces a corresponding increase in demand

armod a small numerical macroeconomic world model with non clearing markets the purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the usefulness of a non walrasian numerical modeling approach to current macroeconomic problems of excessive unemployment and trade imbalances in the oecd area the model which consists of five world regions generates a sequence of short run equilibria the model captures international transmission mechanisms of business cycle impulses and of the effects of monetary and fiscal policy assuming flexible interest and exchange rates full capital mobility and adaptive expectations a scenario with successful international policy coordin ation illustrates how the model works copyright 1987 by the editors of the scandinavian journal of economics

using survey data to resolve the exchange risk exposure puzzle evidence from u s multinational firms while in previous literature foreign currency exposure is estimated to be surprisingly small and insignificant we question in this paper the rationality assumption and show that the traditional use of realized exchange rate changes to approximate unexpected currency shocks leads to a strong underestimation of the influence that exchange rates play in determining firm valuations in light of a unique survey data base of individual exchange rate expectations we distinguish between realized and unexpected foreign currency movements and find that half of our sample of 935 u s firms with real operations in foreign countries is significantly exposed to unexpected exchange rate movements in line with previously reported results foreign exchange risk exposure is found to become increasingly perceptible when the return horizon is lengthened the difference between the exposure to realized versus unexpected exchange rate movements is however decreasing when lengthening the horizon suggesting that the more market participants disagree about the future path of currency values the less investors and or managers are likely to use the publicly available forecasts in their pricing and hedging decisions

dollar jump fears 1984 1992 distributional abnormalities implicit in currency futures options abstract deutsche mark and yen futures options over 1984 1992 and 1986 1992 respectively are examined for deviations from the lognormal assumption underlying standard option pricing models two methods are used an atheoretic skewness premium and daily estimates of moments using a model for pricing american foreign currency futures options under systematic exchange rate jump risk substantial variation over time is found in all moments including implicit skewness and kurtosis the implicit abnormalities predict future abnormalities in log differenced dm futures prices but not yen the peso problem implications do not explain standard rejections of uncovered interest parity

an evaluation of survey exchange rate forecasts abstract a non parametric test of direction is employed to evaluate the survey forecasts provided by the money market services empirical results suggest that the forecasts are useful for predicting the direction of exchange rate changes the results are consistent with a weaker form of rationality than unbiasedness

equity and tradeoffs in a tax based incomes policy a tax based incomes policy tip is a tax incentive that tries to induce employers and or workers to reduce wage and or price increases it is intended as a complement to the basic anti inflation policy of gradual monetary deceleration and fiscal restraint its purpose is to reduce the capital stock and output loss that would otherwise accompany such a policy see my 1978 1979a articles this article is divided into two sections section i examines the capital stock and output loss under monetary deceleration that is uncomplemented by tip this loss is due primarily to wage growth inertia a central feature of modern capitalist economies such inertia provides not only the rationale for a tip on wage increases but also implies that special effort is required to assure that the design of a complete tip package is fair to labor section ii analyzes the tradeoffs confronting two alternative methods of making tip more equitable to labor profit and or price restraint insurance and a tip on price increases of the largest firms the original tip limited to wage increases at first glance is often perceived as unbalanced and inequitable this section tries to contribute to the development of a balanced equitable tip

volume volatility and the dispersion of beliefs i examine a two period noisy rational expectations model of a futures market and show that the dispersion of expectations about a weighted average of future prices measures both the additional volatility and the additional expected volume of trade associated with noisy information the role played by dispersion helps clarify several stylized facts concerning volume and price behavior specifically dispersion can be a factor contributing to the positive correlation between volume and absolute price changes and the positive correlation between consecutive absolute price changes article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

profit sharing and employee share ownership profit sharing and employee share ownership saul estrin paul grout and sushil wadhwani this paper evaluates the likely effects of linking a part of a worker s pay to the employer s profits it has been suggested by weitzman that this would raise employment by lowering the cost of taking on an extra worker however this can only happen if existing workers are willing to let their share of value added fall and experience of those firms in the uk who already operate profit sharing schemes suggests that the weitzman mechanism is not operative there is however some evidence that profit related pay does boost productivity but there are other ways of raising productivity such as performance related pay which may be more effective productivity enhancing effects are likely to be greatest when employees are involved in decision making as well but this is likely to undermine the weitzman case still further even if the argument that profit sharing raises employment is not compelling it is sometimes suggested that it can do little harm however there is evidence that it may well be inflationary in which case the government would be advised to proceed cautiously we argue that there is very little case for the introduction of a permanent subsidy to encourage increased profit sharing although there may be a case for a temporary one to overcome managerial inertia however there is a danger that a subsidy will promote cosmetic schemes designed to be eligible for the subsidy but which do not reflect any real change in behaviour