should government fund assisted reproductive techniques a study using willingness to pay during recent years there has been a growth in the use of assisted reproductive techniques arts across europe america and australia this has resulted in debates about whether health insurance should cover this procedure this study used the closed ended ce willingness to pay wtp technique to establish the value the infertile place on in vitro fertilization ivf treatment in scotland the intention is to consider the use of the economic instrument of wtp for informing the debate on the public provision of ivf assuming that the value of the service outweighs the cost public provision should be encouraged the responses suggested that users of the service have a mean wtp of over 5000 for an attempt at ivf this compares with an average government expenditure of 7pound 2700 the internal validity of the ce wtp was also shown with income being positively related to wtp it is concluded that the ce wtp technique is potentially a useful tool for policy makers in considering the public provision of i

should we use willingness to pay to elicit community preferences for health care new evidence from using a marginal approach abstract we describe a willingness to pay wtp survey in which values were elicited from the public for three disparate health care programmes previous applications of wtp in this context have revealed a high proportion of preference reversals between wtp values and ordinal ranking of the programmes in view of the doubts these findings raise over the use of wtp in this context our aim was to develop a method of eliciting wtp values which we considered would improve consistency between respondents explicit ranking of the programmes and their wtp values compared to the standard approach the structure of the new design the marginal approach reduced the number of possible preference reversals thus encouraging a degree of consistency among respondents despite this the marginal approach did not result in fewer preference reversal being observed in actuality thus casting doubt on the application of wtp in this context

do ordering effects matter in willingness to pay studies of health care willingness to pay studies are increasingly being used in the evaluation of health care programmes however there are methodological issues that need to be resolved before the potential of willingness to pay can be fully exploited as a tool for the economic evaluation of health care programmes of particular methodological interest are the consequences of varying the order in which willingness to pay questions are presented to respondents in contingent valuation studies this paper examines the possibility of ordering effects in willingness to pay studies in health care that is when asking willingness to pay questions about three health care programmes within a single survey does the order the programmes are presented have an impact on the reported willingness to pay ordering effects are observed in the ranking of the programmes in the proportion of zero values reported and in the wtp for one of the programmes the results suggest that the best explanation for the ordering effects is one of fading glow whereby the first programme in any sequence captures much of the utility associated with giving

hedging and liquidity this article develops a model for evaluating alternative hedging strategies for financially constrained firms a key advantage of the model is the ability to capture the intertemporal effects of hedging on the firm s financial situation we characterize the optimal hedge a wide range of alternative hedging strategies can be specified and the model allows us to determine in each case if the hedging strategy raises or lowers firm value and by how much we show that hedging firm value hedging cash flow from operations and hedging sales revenue are not optimal the article highlights the fact that every hedging strategy comes packaged with a borrowing strategy which requires careful consideration futures markets often provide the most liquid and convenient instruments for managing risk however because futures contracts are marked to market it is often impossible to simultaneously hedge cash flows and values for example a futures contract that locked in the value of gold that a corporation planned to extract in one year would generate an uncertain cash flow pattern over the year this article examines how liquidity and cash flow timing problems associated with different hedging strategies can affect a firm s value in our model the objective for hedging is to increase the firm s financial flexibility an optimal hedge maximizes the firm s liquidityslack in the form of excess cash or unused debt capacitywhen liquidity is most valuable this lowers the danger of costly financial distress reduces the effective cost of external financial constraints and makes value maximizing investments affordable a firm with no financial constraints does not gain from hedging and the higher the firm s financial constraints the greater the potential value of hedging the value of hedging depends critically on the design of the hedging strategy we show that the optimal hedge minimizes the variability in the marginal value of the firm s cash balances such a hedge efficiently redistributes cash balances across different states and periods taking cash from those states for which the marginal cost of the financial constraint is low and giving cash to those states for which the marginal

evaluating natural resource investments notwithstanding impressive advances in the theory of finance over the past 2 decades practical procedures for capital budgeting have evolved only slowly the standard technique which has remained unchanged in essentials since it was originally proposed see dean 1951 bierman and smidt 1960 derives from a simple adaptation of the fisher 1907 model of valuation under certainty under this technique expected cash flows from an investment project are discounted at a rate deemed appropriate to their risk and the resulting present value is compared with the cost of the project this standard textbook technique reflects modern theoretical developments only insofar as estimates of the discount rate may be obtained from crude application of single period asset pricing theory but see brennan 1973 bogue and roll 1974 turnbull 1977 constantinides 1978 the inadequacy of this approach to capital budgeting is widely acknowledged although not widely discussed its obvious deficiency is its the evaluation of mining and other natural resource projects is made particularly difficult by the high degree of uncertainty attaching to output prices it is shown that the techniques of continuous time arbitrage and stochastic control theory may be used not only to value such projects but also to determine the optimal policies for developing managing and abandoning them the approach may be adapted to a wide variety of contexts outside the natural resource sector where uncertainty about future project revenues is a paramount concern

eliciting preferences for collectively financed health programmes the willingness to assign approach improving public involvement in health system decision making stands as a primary health policy goal however still limited guidance is available on how best to elicit preferences for health care programmes this study examines a contingent choice technique to elicit preferences among health programmes and named willingness to assign wtas wtas reveals relative monetary based values of a set of competing public programmes under a hypothetical healthcare budget assessment experimental evidence is reported from a deliberative empirical study valuing ten health programmes in the context of the catalan health service evidence from this experimental study reveals that within the context of multiple programmes preferences are internally more consistent and slightly less affected by preference reversals as compared to values revealed from an adapted technique eliciting the willingness to pay wtp extra taxes another finding suggests that although programmes promoting health received the higher rel

using repeated choice experiments to evaluate the impact of policy changes on cervical screening australia was one of the first countries to introduce a publicly funded human papilloma virus hpv vaccine program and its introduction coincided with a media campaign to promote regular cervical screening one issue with hpv vaccination is how it impacts on demand for screening this study examines changes in women s screening preferences following these two interventions using a novel approach to policy evaluation based on repeated discrete choice experiments the study extends our previous analysis of attitudes to screening by taking advantage of the timing of the choice experiments to examine the impact of the two policy changes on determinants of screening we find that unexpectedly willingness to screen is generally lower post interventions the reason for this trend appears to be related to hpv vaccination we also find that interventions have minor impacts on how women value screening attributes our approach allows us to examine the impact of provider behaviour a simulation demonstrates tha

does don t know mean no analysis of don t know responses in dichotomous choice contingent valuation questions the don t know response option in contingent valuation dichotomous choice questions is analysed using data from both willingness to pay and willingness to accept studies an empirical analysis is conducted to determine whether respondents are stating a response similar to yes or no responses or a middle response it is found that don t know responses are similar to no responses in the willingness to pay study in the willingness to accept study it is found that the don t know responses are similar to a middle response it is further suggested that researchers consider calculating ambivalence bounds when a don t know response is a middle response

willingness to pay for publicly financed health care how should we use the numbers this paper addresses the question of how willingness to pay wtp values in health care evaluation can be used by policy makers the way in which wtp values are used depends on from whom values are elicited and whether the good concerned is privately financed or publicly financed through taxation thus four possible uses of wtp values are identified the focus is on the two uses which arise in the publiclyfinanced situation conventional use of wtp values where the decision as to whether or not to provide a service depends upon whether or not wtp values are greater than total cost applies only in the privately financed and not publiclyfinanced situations the situations with publicly financed goods are more complex the use of wtp values for publicly financed goods is justified and illustrated

a model of capital structure when earnings are mean reverting a multiperiod model of optimal capital structure is developed under the assumption that earnings follow an autoregressive process firm value and leverage vary through time and at each date the firm achieves an optimal debt level that is a function of the full state contingent debt policy the reversion parameter of the earnings series is shown to be positively related to various measures of variability and negatively related to leverage if earnings processes are not homogeneous across firms then standard earnings risk measures in capital structure studies do not adequately represent crosssectional differences in variability in firm value

public vs private demand for covering long term care expenditures this article studies the determinants of the willingness to pay wtp for long term care ltc insurance coverage two alternatives are considered one compulsory financed through taxes the other purchased on a voluntary basis and paid through a premium wtp was elicited through open ended contingent valuation within a survey conducted in the italian region emilia romagna about ltc population needs we model information on individual wtp as a two stage process where respondents first establish their interest for ltc cover then state their wtp results show that interest and wtp are influenced by different variables and that differences arise also between the wtp for public and private coverage

sensitivity of the bank stock returns distribution to changes in the level and volatility of interest rate a garch m model abstract the objective of this paper is to employ the generalized autoregressive conditionally heteroskedastic in the mean garch m methodology to investigate the effect of interest rate and its volatility on the bank stock return generation process this framework discards the restrictive assumptions of linearity independence and constant conditional variance in modeling bank stock returns the model presented here allows for shifts in the volatility equation in response to the changes in monetary policy regime in 1979 and 1982 to be estimated arch garch and volatility feed back effects are found to be significant interest rate and interest rate volatility are found to directly impact the first and the second moments of the bank stock returns distribution respectively the latter also affects the risk premia indirectly the degree of persistence in shocks is substantial for all the three bank portfolios and sensitive to the nature of the bank portfolio and the prevailing monetary policy regime

commodity betas with mean reverting output prices abstract this paper provides a theoretical derivation of commodity beta stock price sensitivity to commodity price using a contingent claim model the model incorporates operating leverage financial leverage costly financial distress and mean reverting commodity prices and highlights the important role played by the speed of reversion of the commodity price it is used to identify theoretically the main determinants of commodity beta commodity beta is predicted to be an increasing function of the operating and financial leverage of the firm and a decreasing function of the company s tax rate and the level volatility and speed of reversion of the commodity price empirical tests with a sample of gold mining firms provide support for these predictions particularly the new implications of the model the effect of the commodity price s speed of reversion and the company s tax rate

liquidation costs and capital structure abstract we investigate the relation between liquidation costs of assets and composition of capital structure for firms that reorganized under chapter 11 of the bankruptcy code firms with high liquidation costs emerge from chapter 11 with relatively low debt ratios the debt of these firms is more likely to be public and unsecured and to have less restrictive covenant terms these firms are also more likely to raise new equity capital assets with high liquidation costs thus lead firms to choose capital structures that make financial distress less likely

willingness and ability of bulgarian consumers to pay for improved public health care services an application of the contingent valuation method to the willingness and ability of bulgarian consumers to pay for public health care services is presented the study uses data from a household survey conducted in may june 2000 the willingness and ability to pay for outpatient inpatient and dental services is investigated a combination of interval checklist and open ended questions are used to elicit the willingness to pay amounts the impact of the sociodemographic characteristics on the responses is examined by a generalized tobit regression based on the regression equation the welfare effects of various fee levels are simulated

limited dependent variables in willingness to pay studies applications in health care the appropriate technique for econometric analysis of wtp willingness to pay data is an issue which has not been addressed in many studies of wtp for health and health care this paper argues that whether an open ended question or a payment scale approach is adopted the way in which wtp is recorded means that limited dependent variable models are more appropriate than standard regression analysis data from an open ended question on wtp for maternity care contain a large proportion of zeros and the evidence suggests that a two part specification performs better than ols or a standard tobit model if the payment scale method is adopted our argument suggests that grouped data regression is an appropriate econometric technique in practice with data from a study in northern norway the results from ols and grouped data regression are broadly similar

using contingent valuation to elicit public preferences for water fluoridation the methods and results of a contingent valuation survey to elicit public preferences for water fluoridation are reported the study demonstrates that not only is it important to acknowledge that there will be losers from the introduction of such a programme but that losers must be allowed to express a value for the magnitude of their perceived loss two methods of valuing this loss are explored conventional willingness to accept compensation questions are compared with questions in which losers are asked to state their willingness to pay to prevent their water being fluoridated the results provide tentative support for asking willingness to pay to prevent questions instead of willingness to accept questions when evaluating certain types of public good the issue of protest responses in contingent valuation surveys is also highlighted and discussed

the determinants of stock price exposure financial engineering and the gold mining industry this paper studies the exposure of north american gold mining firms to changes in the price of gold the average mining stock moves 2 percent for each 1 percent change in gold prices but exposures vary considerably over time and across firms as predicted by valuation models gold firm exposures are significantly negatively related to the firm s hedging and diversification activities and to gold prices and gold return volatility and are positively related to firm leverage simple discounted cash flow models produce useful exposure predictions but they systematically overestimate exposures possibly due to their failure to reflect managerial flexibility

do existence values for cost benefit analysis exist the use of the contingent valuation method to generate estimates of existence value for input to cost benefit analysis requires that individuals have utility functions defined over the relevant arguments the validity of the assumption that the required utility functions generally exist has been questioned it has been argued that some individuals will respond on the basis of lexicographic preference orderings it has also been argued that some individuals do not consider that market or individual willingness to pay criteria are appropriate where existence value type issues are at stake the paper considers survey evidence bearing upon these arguments it is concluded that the evidence is consistent with the view that it is incorrect to proceed on the assumption that individuals generally satisfy the assumptions required for the existence of existence values for use in cost benefit analysis

the trade off model with mean reverting earnings theory and empirical tests the trade off theory of capital structure predicts a positive relationship between earnings and leverage contradictory to well established empirical evidence since corporate earnings are known to be mean reverting we reformulate the trade off model with mean reverting earnings we show that with mean reverting earnings there should be a negative relationship between optimal leverage and the current earnings level the model also illustrates the importance of the earnings reversion parameter in the determination of capital structure the major implications of the model are supported by empirical tests carried out with a sample of firms in the s p 500 index

the exchange rate exposure of u s multinationals this article examines the exposure of u s multinationals to foreign currency risk evidence is presented that the relationship between stock returns and exchange rates differs systematically across multinationals given these results the study focuses on the determinants of exchange rate exposure the comovements between stock returns and the value of the dollar is found to be positively related to the percentage of foreign operations of u s multinationals copyright 1990 by the university of chicago

a nonlinear forecasting model of gdp growth we develop a model of gdp growth under which regime changes are triggered stochastically by an observable tension index constructed as the geometric sum of deviations of actual gdp growth from a corresponding sustainable rate within expansionary regimes the tension index tends to increase which heightens the probability of a regime change given a regime change the process becomes reversed and the tension index begins to decline along a newly established path linking the behavior of the tension index to gdp growth enables us to capture floor and ceiling effects

mean reversion in equilibrium asset prices evidence from the futures term structure we use the term structure of futures prices to test whether investors anticipate mean reversion in spot asset prices the empirical results indicate mean reversion in each market we examine for agricultural commodities and crude oil the magnitude of the estimated mean reversion is large for example point estimates indicate that 44 percent of a typical spot oil price shock is expected to be reversed over the subsequent eight months for metals the degree of mean reversion is substantially less but still statistically significant we detect only weak evidence of mean reversion in financial asset prices in this study we provide evidence of mean reversion in the prices of several real and financial assets rather than examining evidence of ex post reversion using time series of asset prices we use price data from futures contracts with varying delivery horizons to test whether investors expect asset prices to revert this approach offers two advantages first since futures prices are readily available for many markets our procedure can be implemented for many assets including those for which reliable spot price data is elusive second there is little ambiguity as to the source of any mean reversion detected using our method subject only to the maintained assumption that the no arbitrage cost of carry condition holds our test detects mean reversion that is expected to occur in equilibrium but has no power to detect mean reversion resulting from noise or inefficiencies our methodology focuses on relations between price levels and the slope of the futures term structure defined as the change across delivery dates in the futures prices observed on a given trading date an inverse relation between prices and the futures term slope constitutes evidence that investors expect mean reversion in spot prices to illustrate initially assume there are no

some issues in the application of closed ended willingness to pay studies to valuing health goods an application to antenatal care in scotland limited resources coupled with unlimited demands means that decisions have to be made concerning the allocation of scarce health care resources the economic instrument of willingness to pay wtp is one instrument that can be used to help this decision making process recommendations from the environmental economics literature suggest that the closed end ce wtp approach should be used this approach is just beginning to be used to value health goods this paper addresses the sensitivity of the closed ended wtp approach to three issues the design of the bid vector the upper and lower limits of integration and the method of analysis these are discussed with reference to a study looking at the value of alternative models of ante natal care in scotland the results are discussed and conclusions made concerning the use of the ce wtp instrument for valuing health goods

incorporating psycho social considerations into health valuation an experimental study abstract this study used multiple elicitation question modes and group discussions to value psycho social considerations associated with public perceptions of health risks values for saving 100 statistical lives in six different policy contexts varied by 50 largely due to psycho social considerations of choice and control a currency effect was found value of life differentials were smaller when questions were framed directly in the currency of lives saved rather than willingness to pay or public spending to save lives discussions reduced but did not eliminate inconsistencies and slightly increased the relative valuations of health interventions involving less choice and control by those at risk

exchange rate exposure hedging and the use of foreign currency derivatives abstract we examine whether firms use foreign currency derivatives for hedging or for speculative purposes using a sample of s p 500 nonfinancial firms for 1993 we find evidence that firms use currency derivatives for hedging as their use significantly reduces the exchange rate exposure firms face we also find that while the decision to use derivatives depends on exposure factors i e foreign sales and foreign trade and on variables largely associated with theories of optimal hedging i e size and r d expenditures the level of derivatives used depends only on a firm s exposure through foreign sales and trade