on the impacts of oil price fluctuations on european equity markets volatility spillover and hedging effectiveness the objective of this paper is to investigate the volatility spillovers between oil and stock markets in europe as not all industries are expected to be equally affected by oil price changes we conduct our study at both the aggregate as well as sector levels empirically we make use of a recently developed var garch approach which allows for transmissions in volatilities in addition we analyze the optimal weights and hedge ratios for oil stock portfolio holdings based on our results on the whole our findings show significant volatility spillovers between oil price and sector stock returns and suggest that a better understanding of those links is crucial for portfolio management in the presence of oil price risk

finance inflation and employment a post keynesian kaleckian analysis the purpose of this paper is to contribute to the post keynesian kaleckian macroeconomic literature we develop a macroeconomic model that explicitly integrates the role of borrowing and cash payment commitments on outstanding debt interest plus principal repayment into the consumption and investment expenditures as well as into the inflation generating process we explore the way that finance influences the distribution effects of inflation in the demand side of a money credit using economy we suggest a new phillips curve that encapsulates the impact of financial commitments on wage and profit claims we argue that high debt and cash payment commitments are likely to be associated with a positive demand side effect of inflation on the rate of employment and that they might be conducive to a negative supply side effect of employment on the inflation rate the author 2011 published by oxford university press on behalf of the cambridge political economy society all rights reserved

competitive targeted advertising with price discrimination this paper investigates the eects of price discrimination by means of targeted advertis ing in a duopolistic market where the distribution of consumers preferences is discrete and where advertising plays two major roles it is used by rms as a way to transmit relevant information to otherwise uninformed consumers and it is used as a price discrimination device we compare the rms optimal marketing mix advertising and pricing when they adopt mass advertising non discrimination strategies and targeted advertising price discrim ination strategies if rms are able to adopt targeted advertising strategies we nd that the symmetric price equilibrium is in mixed strategies while the advertising is chosen deter ministically our results also unveil that as long as we allow for imperfect substitutability between the goods rms do not necessarily target more ads to their own market in par ticular rms optimal marketing mix leads to higher advertising reach in the rival s market than in the rms own market provided that advertising costs are su ciently low in relation to the consumer s reservation value the comparison of the optimal marketing mix under mass advertising strategies and targeted advertising strategies reveals that targeted adver tising might constitute a tool to dampen price competition in particular if advertising costs are su ciently low in relation to the value of the goods we obtain that average prices with non discrimination mass advertising are below those with price discrimination and targeted advertising regardless of the market segment accordingly when i goods are imperfect substitutes ii advertising is not too expensive and iii targeted advertising constitutes an eective price discrimination tool price discrimination through targeted advertising may be detrimental to social welfare since it boosts industry pro ts at the expense of consumer surplus

conditional correlation models of autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity with nonstationary garch equations in this article we investigate the effects of careful modeling the long run dynamics of the volatilities of stock market returns on the conditional correlation structure to this end we allow the individual unconditional variances in conditional correlation generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity cc garch models to change smoothly over time by incorporating a nonstationary component in the variance equations such as the spline garch model and the time varying tv garch model the variance equations combine the long run and the short run dynamic behavior of the volatilities the structure of the conditional correlation matrix is assumed to be either time independent or to vary over time we apply our model to pairs of seven daily stock returns belonging to the s p 500 composite index and traded at the new york stock exchange the results suggest that accounting for deterministic changes in the unconditional variances improves the fit of the multivariate cc garch models to the data t

approximate option valuation for arbitrary stochastic processes abstract we show how a given probability distribution can be approximated by an arbitrary distribution in terms of a series expansion involving second and higher moments this theoretical development is specialized to the problem of option valuation where the underlying security distribution if not lognormal can be approximated by a lognormally distributed random variable the resulting option price is expressed as the sum of a black scholes price plus adjustment terms which depend on the second and higher moments of the underlying security stochastic process this approach permits the impact on the option price of skewness and kurtosis of the underlying stock s distribution to be evaluated

an empirical test of a valuation model for american options on futures contracts pricing models for american call and put options on futures contracts are derived herein these models are used to investigate the efficiency of the market for options on standard poor 500 and german mark futures the evidence presented here indicates that market prices for these options deviate substantially from their corresponding model prices in addition it is shown that a hedging strategy originated at prices that indicate a deviation of market from model is successful in translating the observed mispricing into excess profits after transactions costs however these net profits are eliminated if the origination of the strategy is delayed by one trade or if bid ask spreads are accounted for

interest rates and the exchange rate a non monotonic tale abstract for over 30 years the empirical international finance literature has been unable to detect a clear systematic relationship between interest rates and the nominal exchange rate we take a fresh look at the data and uncover a new stylized fact for a cross section of countries the relationship between the exchange rate and short term interest rates is non monotonic small increases in the nominal interest rate appreciate the currency whereas larger increases depreciate the currency we develop a model that explains this stylized fact based on the interaction of three effects higher interest rates increase money demand and hence appreciate the currency but also raise the fiscal deficit and depress output both of which tend to depreciate the currency we provide cross country evidence for the presence of these effects in the data

efficient selection of insured currency positions protective puts vs fiduciary calls we examine the empirical results from implementation of portfolio insurance strategies employing currency spot and futures options hypotheses are generated from ogden and tucker s 1988 generalizations concerning the relative values of american spot currency options and currency futures options we find that protective puts using futures options are generally dominated by both protective puts that use options on spot currencies and by fiduciary calls on futures contracts this suggests that the prices of puts on foreign currency futures contracts are too high relative to foreign currency futures calls and to puts on spot currencies

do central banks respond to exchange rate movements a structural investigation abstract we estimate a small scale structural general equilibrium model of a small open economy using bayesian methods our main focus is the conduct of monetary policy in australia canada new zealand and the uk we consider generic taylor type rules where the monetary authority reacts in response to output inflation and exchange rate movements we perform posterior odds tests to investigate the hypothesis whether central banks do target exchange rates the main result of this paper is that the central banks of australia and new zealand do not whereas the bank of canada and the bank of england do include the nominal exchange rate in its policy rule this result is robust for various specification of the policy rule we also find that terms of trade movements do not contribute significantly to domestic business cycles

the distribution of foreign exchange price changes trading day effects and risk measurement this study investigates the nature of price changes in a variety of major and minor foreign exchange markets the results suggest that the log of price changes over one trading day intervals seems to follow a non normal stable distribution function different measures of location and to lesser extent scale are present for different days of the week dollar denominated price changes are high on mondays and wednesdays and low on thursdays and fridays for all currencies the wednesday thursday result is consistent with the settlement procedures used in foreign exchange transactions in the dollar the friday monday result is consistent with an increase in demand for the dollar prior to the weekend this study offers some previously unavailable results on the nature of price changes in a certain set of speculative markets in particular this is a study of the distributional characteristics of daily and weekly price changes for a number of major and minor foreign exchange markets the results document the existence of non normal stable distributions for price changes in foreign exchange markets these price change distributions differ by day of the week in ways that are only partly attributable to the institutional structure of the market the results of the study are interpreted within the context of understanding how foreign exchange markets operate and within the context of prior studies of stock market data concerned with summarizing the probability distribution of price changes for different intervals including days of the week since bachelier s 1 original treatise that contained the proposition that speculative market prices follow a process that could be described by a normal distribution there have been numerous alternative attempts to describe the stochastic processes which characterize speculative market prices these studies have not resulted in any generalized description of the probability distribution of price changes in such markets indeed the evidence suggests substantial differences in the process among various types of financial instruments the failure to achieve consensus can be traced to the lack of robustness in the statistical procedures employed to estimate processes and to differences in the underlying institutional or economic arrangements which are unique to that market the possibility of differences in the information set used to assess value or differences in technology for transmitting information makes it important to secure additional

interpreting the macroeconomic time series facts the effects of monetary policy existing theory and evidence on the effects of monetary policy are reviewed substantial room for disagreement among economists remains new evidence based on multivariate time series studies of several countries is presented while certain patterns in the data consistent with effective monetary policy are strikingly similar across countries others particularly the tendency of interest rate increases to predict high inflation are harder to reconcile with effective monetary policy

fracking and environmental in justice in a texas city abstract shale gas development sgd via horizontal drilling and fracking is touted for economic benefits and spurned for health and environmental impacts despite sgd s socioecological salience few peer reviewed empirical studies document the distribution of positive and negative effects the city of denton texas has 280 active gas wells and over a decade of sgd here we use an environmental justice framework to analyze the distribution of sgd s costs and benefits within denton using data on mineral property values from 2002 to 2013 and gas well locations we ask who owns denton s mineral rights i e the greatest financial beneficiaries and how does this ownership pattern relate to who lives near gas wells i e those who shoulder the nuisances and health impacts our results show that denton s mineral wealth is widely distributed around the u s residents own 1 of the total value extracted and the city government is a large financial beneficiary in addition to distributional inequities our analysis demonstrates that split estate doctrine legal deference to mineral owners and sgd s uniqueness in urban centers create disparities in municipal sgd decision making processes the environmental justice issues associated with fracking in denton also provide one possible explanation for residents november 2014 vote to ban hydraulic fracturing

efficiency tests of the foreign currency options market based on a new options transactions data base from the philadelphia stock exchange foreign currency options market this paper examines the importance of the effect of nonsynchronous prices and transaction costs on the usual option market efficiency tests the tests conducted are based on the transaction cost adjusted early exercise and put call parity pricing boundaries applicable to the american foreign currency options market the test results show that the put call parity boundary tests are sensitive to both nonsynchronous prices and transaction costs the early exercise boundary tests are sensitive to transaction costs but are not very sensitive to simultaneity of the option price and the underlying spot price under the no transaction costs scenario a large number of early exercise boundary violations is found even when simultaneous spot and option prices are used these violations disappear when actual transaction costs are taken into account

the cost channel reconsidered a comment using an identification robust approach we re examine the empirical relevance of the cost channel of monetary policy e g ravenna andwalsh 2006 employing recently developed moment conditions inference meth ods including identi cation robust procedures using us data our results suggest that the cost channel e ect is poorly identi ed and we are thus unable to corroborate the previous results in the literature

the environment as a luxury good or too poor to be green abstract this paper discusses the views of different authors on the relations between economic growth and environmental scarcities it lays out the common assumptions behind inglehart s postmaterialist thesis in environmental sociology krutilla s criterion for the valuation of environmental amenities hirsch s notion of the positional economy and pearce s numerical results on weak sustainability the paper shows how different views on the environmental consequences of economic growth imply at the same time different theories about environmental movements in rich countries there is an increasing demand for environmental amenities which cannot be substituted by products of the material economy and there are also environmental movements against the effluents of affluence in poor countries there are environmental movements characterized as the environmentalism of the poor

comparing new keynesian models of the business cycle a bayesian approach abstract the baseline new keynesian model cannot replicate the observed persistence in inflation output and real wages for sensible parameter values as a result several extensions have been suggested to improve its fit to the data we use a bayesian approach to estimate and compare the baseline sticky price model of calvo s 1983 staggered prices in a utility maximizing framework journal of monetary economics 12 383 398 and three extensions our empirical results are as follows first we find that adding price indexation improves the fit of calvo s 1983 staggered prices in a utility maximizing framework journal of monetary economics 12 383 398 model second models with both staggered price and wage setting dominate models with only price rigidities third introducing wage indexation does not significantly improve the fit fourth all model estimates suggest a high degree of price stickiness fifth the estimates of labor supply elasticity are higher in models with both staggered price and wage contracts finally the estimated inflation parameters of the taylor rule are stable across models

do interest rates drive inflation dynamics an analysis of the cost channel of monetary transmission abstract this paper proposes a novel approach to empirically assessing the impact of the cost channel of monetary transmission on the dynamics of inflation within a new keynesian phillips curve framework according to the cost channel higher interest rates translate into higher marginal costs of production and eventually into higher inflation we exploit the present value implications of the model to derive a series of fundamental inflation that is contrasted with actual inflation we show that the cost channel adds significantly to the explanation of inflation dynamics in forward looking sticky price models for the us the uk and the euro area moreover the cost channel can explain inflation episodes that cannot be accounted for by the standard new keynesian model

oil and the macroeconomy since world war ii all but one of the u s recessions since world war ii have been preceded typically with a lag of around three fourths of a year by a dramatic increase in the price of crude petroleum this does not mean that oil shocks caused these recessions evidence is presented however that even over the period 1948 72 this correlation is statistically significant and nonspurious supporting the proposition that oil shocks were a contributing factor in at least some of the u s recessions prior to 1972 by extension energy price increases may account for much of post opec macroeconomic performance

environmental policy and competitiveness the porter hypothesis and the composition of capital abstract the porter hypothesis suggests a win win situation in the sense that environmental policy improves both environment and competitiveness the suggestion received strong criticism from economists driven by the idea that if opportunities exist firms do not have to be triggered by an extra cost in this paper a model is developed which confirms this point but which also draws attention to some general mechanisms that relax the trade off considerably downsizing and modernization of firms subject to environmental policy will increase average productivity and will have positive effects on the marginal decrease of profits and environmental damage

can exchange rate pass through explain the price puzzle the anomalous behavior of inflation in response to contractionary monetary policy is known as the price puzzle using a simple open economy macroeconomic model with expectations formed rationally we show that exchange rate pass through can help in resolving the price puzzle

toward a new conception of the environment competitiveness relationship accepting a fixed trade off between environmental regulation and competitiveness unnecessarily raises costs and slows down environmental progress studies finding high environmental compliance costs have traditionally focused on static cost impacts ignoring any offsetting productivity benefits from innovation they typically overestimated compliance costs neglected innovation offsets and disregarded the affected industry s initial competitiveness rather than simply adding to cost properly crafted environmental standards can trigger innovation offsets allowing companies to improve their resource productivity shifting the debate from pollution control to pollution prevention was a step forward it is now necessary to make the next step and focus on resource productivity

weak instrument robust tests in gmm and the new keynesian phillips curve we discuss weak instrument robust statistics in gmm for testing hypotheses on the full parameter vector or on subsets of the parameters we use these test procedures to reexamine the evidence on the new keynesian phillips curve model we find that u s postwar data are consistent with the view that inflation dynamics are predominantly forward looking but we cannot rule out the presence of considerable backward looking dynamics moreover the phillips curve has become flatter recently and this is an important factor contributing to its weak identification

arbitrage tests of the efficiency of the foreign currency options market in this paper the lower boundary excercise price and put call parity conditions for foreign currency options are subjected to empirical testing the tests are directed towards the examination of the hypothesis that the foreign currency option market is efficient the evidence in the ex post tests is inconsistent with this hypothesis since a large number of violations of theoretical conditions are found in the data

the sub gaussian distribution of currency futures stable paretian or nonstationary this study conducts an empirical test to examine wh ether the observed non normal distribution of currency futures price changes isgenerated by the relationship between maturity and variability in general the author finds that the relationship between maturity and vari ability is not suff icient to explain the observed non normality although some amount of non statio narity is present in the scale and in the characteristic exponent the non norma l stable paretian distribution adequately describes futures price changes for mo st currencies and most contracts during the period covered in thisstudy copyright 1987 by mit press

environmental justice in the oil refinery industry a panel analysis across united states counties abstract environmental injustice due to economic inequality and its correlates and consequences has been a focus for researchers and policy makers alike over many years with much of that research focusing on race as the major determinant of inequality in this paper we extend this literature by focussing on emissions from the oil refinery industry at the community level in particular based on the use of panel data we analyse econometrically how the environmental performance of individual petroleum refineries emissions of benzene and toluene to the atmosphere associates with determinants of economic inequality at the micro level in terms of average per capita income at the level of united states counties as well as average county level unemployment rates the paper finds evidence of environmental injustice as a result of unemployment levels in areas around refineries and to a slightly lesser extent as a result of income inequality it discusses these results in a wider context referring amongst other things to the role of county level community characteristics and the potential for private firms to substitute for the intervention of public institutions if these are lacking

inflation dynamics and the cost channel of monetary transmission evidence from vector autoregressions indicates that the impact of interest rate shocks on macroeconomic aggregates can substantially be affected by the so called cost channel of monetary transmission in this paper we apply a structural approach to examine the relevance of the cost channel for inflation dynamics in g7 countries we augment the so called hybrid new keynesian philips curve by letting firms costs for external funds rise with the short run nominal interest rate our estimates reveal that the magnitude of this cost channel strongly varies between countries including member countries of the emu in accordance with differences in their financial systems simulations of a new keynesian model further show that the presence of the cost channel substantially affects the transmission of monetary policy shocks in particular the inflation response

multinational oil companies and the adoption of sustainable development a resource based and institutional theory interpretation of adoption heterogeneity sustainable development is often framed as a social issue to which corporations should pay attention because it offers both opportunities and challenges through the use of institutional theory and the resource based view of the firm we shed some light on why more than 20 years after sustainable development was first introduced we see neither the adoption of this business model as dominant nor its converse that is the total abandonment of the model as unworkable and unprofitable we focus on multinational corporations mncs because they were among the organizations first called to take action in order to illustrate the institutional pressures mncs face and their strategic response to these pressures we analysed four major oil and gas multinationals subject to similar sustainable development pressures climate change biodiversity renewable energy development and social investment we argue that normative and coercive isomorphism does not occur at the global level because sustainable development is largely a stakeholder driven rather than a broad social pressure that is host country interpretation of sustainable development pressures varies across an mnc s subsidiary network based on the analysis of the four major mncs annual reports from 2000 to 2005 we argue that mimetic isomorphism may occur but since it implies the use of complex and intangible resources mimetic processes are slow rare and discretionary

optimal monetary policy with an uncertain cost channel the cost channel of monetary transmission describes a supply side effect of interest rates on firms costs previous research has found this effect to vary both over time and across countries moreover the cyclical nature of financial frictions is likely to amplify the cost channel this paper derives optimal monetary policy in the presence of uncertainty about the true size of the cost channel in a min max approach the central bank derives an optimal policy plan to be implemented by a taylor rule it is shown that uncertainty about the cost channel leads to an attenuated interest rate setting behavior in this respect the brainard 1967 principle of cautious policy in the face of uncertainty continues to hold in both a bayesian and a min max framework

options on the spot and options on futures this paper analyzes and compares the valuation of two types of options that relate to the same asset options on the asset itself and options on the futures on the asset the early exercise privilege plays a central role in explaining the differences between the values of the two options it is shown that in the case of a cash instrument that does not make interim payments such as gold the value of a call option on the spot is smaller than the call option on the futures contract the opposite is true for put options the early exercise boundaries which characterize when it pays to exercise are also compared and analyzed the financial markets have recently witnessed a proliferation of various types of listed options on commodities and on financial assets commencing with call options on individual common stocks recent innovations have included call and put options on treasury bonds metals foreign currencies and stock market

constructing and estimating a realistic optimizing model of monetary policy abstract a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium dsge model with real and nominal both price and wage rigidities succeeds in capturing some key nominal features of u s business cycles additive technology shocks as well as multiplicative shocks are introduced and shown to be crucial monetary policy is specified as an interest rate targeting rule following developments in the structural vector autoregression var literature the interaction between real and nominal rigidities is essential to reproduce the liquidity effect of monetary policy the model is estimated by maximum likelihood on u s data and its fit is comparable to that of an unrestricted first order var besides producing reasonable impulse responses and second moments this model replicates a feature of u s business cycles never captured by previous research with dsge models that an increase in interest rates predicts a decrease in output two to six quarters in the future

when did unsystematic monetary policy have an effect on inflation abstract an important stylized fact to emerge from var estimates is that exogenous monetary policy shocks also labelled unsystematic monetary policy have a delayed persistent hump shaped effect on inflation i argue that this empirical pattern is fragile in particular it disappears when one examines periods without large shifts in the level of inflation such as 1984 2005 an important consequence is that the hump shaped var estimated response of inflation is not appropriate to fit stylized models of the response of inflation around a stable steady state inflation level

willingness to accept compensation for the environmental risks of oil transport on the amazon a choice modeling experiment abstract this paper looks at the question of whether subsistence level indigenous people place a value on the preservation of ecosystems independent of direct impacts of environmental change such as impacts on their production activities the economics literature generally suggests that non use values don t exist among the poor and in the informal sector of the economy we examine this issue through a choice modeling experiment a survey was conducted of rainforest communities who live on the banks of the amazon river rio solimoes in the vicinity of proposed oil and gas pipelines the data were analyzed in the choice modeling framework revealing relatively high amounts of compensation that were necessary in order to accept the potential ecosystem damages associated with oil transport even if the people were completely compensated for direct damages such as loss of access to productive resources these results suggest that environmental quality is important for its own sake a result that is very different from the implicit assumption among many economists

corporate social responsibility in the multinational enterprise strategic and institutional approaches what is the relationship of global and local country specific corporate social responsibility csr to international organizational strategy applying the strategic logic of the bartlett and ghoshal typology to the realm of csr multinational firms should respond to pressures for integration and responsiveness from salient stakeholders however an institutional logic would suggest that multinational firms will simply replicate the existing product market organizational strategy multidomestic transnational global in their management of csr these alternative approaches are tested with a survey instrument sent to mnes operating in mexico the results of this study are consistent with the proposition that institutional pressures rather than strategic analysis of social issues and stakeholders are guiding decision making with respect to csr we develop implications for mne management and research as well as public policy

a new comparative approach to macroeconomic modeling and policy analysis in the aftermath of the global financial crisis the state of m acroeconomic modeling and the use of macroeconomic models in policy analysis has come under heavy criticism macroeconomists in academia and policy institutions are blamed for relying too much on a particular class of macroeconomic models that did not sufficiently this paper propose s a comparative approach to macroeconomic policy analysis that is open to competing modeling paradigms macroeconomic model comparison projects have helped produce some very influenti al insights such as the taylor rule however they have been infrequent and costly because they require the input of many teams of researchers and multiple meetings to obtain a limited set of comparative findings this paper provides a new comparative approach to model based research and policy analysis that enables individual researchers to conduct model comparisons easily frequently at low cost and on a large scale using this approach a model archive is built that incl udes many well known empirically estimated models that may be used for quantitative analysis of monetary and fiscal stabilization policies a computational platform is created that allows straightforward comparisons of models implications its application is illustrated by compa ring different monetary and fiscal policies across selected models researchers can easily include new models in the data base and compare the effects of novel extensions to established benchmarks thereby fostering a comparative instead of insular approach to model development

analyzing the effects of us monetary policy shocks in dollarized countries identifying monetary policy shocks is difficult therefore instead of trying to do this perfectly this paper exploits a natural setting that reduces the consequences of shock misidentification it does so by basing conclusions upon the responses of variables in three dollarized countries ecuador el salvador and panama they import us monetary policy just as genuine us states do but have the advantage that non monetary us shocks are not imported perfectly consequently this setting reduces the effects of any mistakenly included non monetary us shocks while leaving the effects of true monetary shocks unaffected results suggest that prices fall after monetary contractions output does not show a clear response

does social performance really lead to financial performance accounting for endogeneity the empirical relationship between a firm s social performance and its financial performance is still not well established in the literature despite more than 30 years of research and more than 100 empirical studies on the issue the results are still mixed we argue that the heterogeneous results found in previous studies are not due exclusively to problems related with the measurement instruments or the samples used instead we posit that a more fundamental problem related with the endogeneity of social strategic decisions could be driving most of the empirical findings we show that using a panel data of 658 firms from 1991 to 2005 how some of the results found in previous research change and some are even reversed when endogeneity is properly taken into account

how to solve the price puzzle a meta analysis the short run increase in prices following an unexpected tightening of monetary policy constitutes a frequently reported puzzle yet the puzzle is surprisingly easy to explain away when all published models are quantitatively reviewed we collect about 1 000 point estimates of impulse responses from 70 articles using vector autoregressive models and present a simple method of research synthesis for graphical results our ndings indicate publication selection in favor of the intuitive response of prices to a tightening the estimates depend systematically on study design when misspecications are

monopolistic competition and the effects of aggregate demand how important is monopolistic competition to an understanding of the effects of aggregate demand on output we ask the question at three levels can monopolistic competition by itself explain why aggregate demand movements affect output can it together with other imperfections generate effects of aggregate demand in a way that perfect competition cannot if so can it give an accurate account of the response of the economy to aggregate demand movements the answers are no yes and yes

optimal monetary policy with the cost channel in the standard new keynesian framework an optimizing policy maker does not face a trade off between stabilizing the inflation rate and stabilizing the gap between actual output and output under flexible prices an ad hoc exogenous cost push shock is typically added to the inflation equation to generate a meaningful policy problem in this paper we show that a cost push shock arises endogenously when a cost channel for monetary policy is introduced into the new keynesian model a cost channel is present when firms marginal cost depends directly on the nominal rate of interest besides providing empirical evidence for a cost channel we explore its implications for optimal monetary policy we show that its presence alters the optimal policy problem in important ways for example both the output gap and inflation are allowed to fluctuate in response to productivity and demand shocks under optimal monetary policy

interest rates and the channels of monetary transmission some sectoral estimates abstract we estimate a small sectoral var model of the uk macroeconomy this model is then used to simulate the effects of an exogenous monetary policy shock upon asset prices bank balance sheet variables and final target variables activity and prices for the personal and corporate sectors significant sectoral differences are found among the channels of monetary transmission in addition the use of sectoral data facilitates the identification of distinct money and credit channels in the transmission of monetary policy these results contrast with the ambiguous findings on the roles of money and credit in the literature to date

short run fluctuations in foreign exchange rates evidence from the data 1973 1979 abstract the paper examines the statistical properties of daily changes in foreign exchange fx rates for nine currencies it finds that these changes are leptokurtotic i e have long tailed and sharp peaked histograms the evidence suggests that this leptokurtosis does not arise from an underlying paretian stable distribution nor from a stationary mixture of normal distributions but rather from normal processes with time varying parameters this finding casts doubt on the validity of many standard techniques t stats arima methods some moving statistics for estimating the time varying parameters are also presented

does inflation increase after a monetary policy tightening answers based on an estimated dsge model abstract this paper estimates the importance of the cost channel of monetary policy in a new keynesian model of the business cycle a model with nominal and real rigidities is extended by assuming that a fraction of firms need to borrow money to pay their wage bill hence a monetary policy tightening increases effective unit labor costs of production and might imply an increase in inflation the paper examines the conditions under which the model can generate a positive response of inflation to a monetary contraction and estimates the model s parameters using bayesian methods the paper shows that the estimated demand side effects of monetary policy dominate the estimated supply side effect even if restrictions are imposed that make occurrence of a positive inflation response to a monetary contraction more likely

disinflation inequality and welfare in a tank model we investigate the redistributive and welfare effects of disinflation in a two agent new keynesian tank model characterized by limited asset market participation lamp and wealth inequality we highlight two key mechanisms driving our long run results i the cash in advance constraint on firms working capital cia ii dividends endogeneity these two channels point in opposite directions lower inflation softens the cia and by raising labor demand lowers inequality but the disinflation also raises dividends and this increases inequality the disinflation is always welfare improving for asset holders we obtain ambiguous results for non asset holders who suffer substantial consumption losses during the transition

identification issues in forward looking models estimated by gmm with an application to the phillips curve limited information methods are commonly used to estimate forward looking models with rational expectations such as the new keynesian phillips curve of gal and gertler 1999 in this paper we address issues of identiflcation that have been overlooked due to the incompleteness of the single equation formulation we show that problems of weak instruments may arise depending on the properties of the exogenous variables and that they are empirically relevant we also uncover a link between identiflcation and dynamic mis speciflcation and examine the lack of power of hansen s 1982 j test to detect invalid over identifying restrictions with regards to the new phillips curve we flnd that problems of identiflcation cannot be ruled out and they deserve further attention

tests of an american option pricing model on the foreign currency options market this paper tests the ability of the american option pricing model proposed by parkinson 18 or mason 14 to explain the pricing of the foreign currency options traded on the philadelphia stock exchange from february 28 1983 to march 26 1985 we find that the model underprices out of the money options relative to at the money and in the money options this relative underpricing is driven by an underpricing of out of the money call options of short maturity in addition the degree of relative mispricing for most categories of options is shown to be a decreasing function of the time to maturity of the options longer maturity options appear to trade at similar levels of implied volatility whether they are in at or out of the money most of these biases appear consistent with the fact that the underlying spot currency rate follows a mixed jump diffusion process as described in 17

endogenous money or sticky prices abstract what explains the correlations between nominal and real variables in the postwar us data are these correlations indicative of significant nominal rigidity or do they simply reflect the particular way that monetary policymakers react to developments in the real economy to answer these questions this paper uses maximum likelihood to estimate a model of endogenous money this model allows but does not require nominal prices to be sticky the results show that nominal price rigidity over and above endogenous money plays a role in accounting for key features of the data

estimating the evolution of money s role in the u s monetary business cycle we assess money s role in the post wwii u s business cycle by employing both fixed coefficient and rolling window bayesian estimations of a structural model of the business cycle with money our empirical evidence favors a specification with drifting parameters for money consumption nonseparability and the federal reserve s reaction to nominal money growth the role of money is estimated to have been important during the 1970s and declined afterward the omission of money produces severely distorted impulse response functions relative to the model with money money is found to be important in replicating the u s output volatility during the great inflation

the relative valuation of american currency spot and futures options theory and empirical tests this study empirically tests contingent claims pricing models for american currency spot and futures options numerical analysis indicates that the difference in the model prices of spot and futures put call options with the same exercise price and maturity is for a premium discount currency positive and an increasing function of a the absolute dif ference in the prices of the underlying spot and futures contracts and b the maturity of the options tests on british pound deutsche mark and swiss franc options indicate many violations ofthe ordinal pricing relationships noted above additional tests indicate that option prices are inconsistent with functional relationship b above most of the ob served violations are sufficiently large to provide arbitrage profits net of transaction costs assuming interest rates are constant and the interest rate parity theorem holds continu ously alternatively both the violations and the inconsistent functional relationship may be due to violation of the assumption of constant interest rates

the effects of domestic and foreign yield curves on the value of currency american call options this paper examines the sensitivity of the values of foreign currency american call options to the domestic and foreign term structures of interest rates pricing performances of currency option models are compared with and without the term structure effects it is shown that there exist significant pricing biases if flat yield curves are assumed and that different shapes of domestic and foreign yield curves can have major impacts on currency option prices

robust optimal policy in a forward looking model with parameter and shock uncertainty this paper characterizes a robust optimal policy rule in a simple forward looking model when the policymaker faces uncertainty about model parameters and shock processes we show that the robust optimal policy rule is likely to involve a stronger response of the interest rate to fluctuations in inflation and the output gap than is the case in the absence of uncertainty thus parameter uncertainty alone does not necessarily justify a small response of monetary policy to perturbations however uncertainty may amplify the degree of super inertia required by optimal monetary policy we finally discuss the sensitivity of the results to alternative assumptions copyright 2007 john wiley sons ltd

the environmentalism of the poor revisited territory and place in disconnected glocal struggles abstract in 2002 the year it was published the environmentalism of the poor was one of the first books examining in a multidisciplinary perspective three parallel environmental movements around the world eleven years later we re examine these movements the cult of wilderness the gospel of eco efficiency and the mantra of environmental justice focusing on the increased visibility of struggles representing environmental justice and the environmentalism of the poor even if they are often disconnected from an organizational standpoint glocal manifestations of resistance have emerged since the 1990s today environmental movements assert common values related to place identity and culture activists concepts such as ecological debt environmental justice environmental liabilities land grabbing environmental gentrification corporate accountability climate justice food sovereignty or economic degrowth are the keywords of the networks of the global environmental justice movement at the same time such concepts support the rural and urban movements that remake place for marginalized groups re assert traditional practices and protect territory from contamination land appropriation and real estate speculation some possibilities exist for cooperation between environmental justice and the other varieties of environmentalism here comparative research can help unravel the use of valuation languages different from green economic growth or sustainable development

changes in the effects of monetary policy on disaggregate price dynamics abstract based on a time varying factor augmented vector autoregression we demonstrate that the propagation mechanism of monetary policy disturbances differs across disaggregate components of personal consumption expenditures while many disaggregate prices rise temporarily in response to a monetary tightening in the early part of the sample there is no evidence of a price puzzle at the aggregate level the share of disaggregate prices that exhibit the price puzzle diminishes from the early 1980s onwards there also is evidence of a substantial decline in the dispersion of disaggregate price responses over time this gradual decrease in cross sectional heterogeneity of disaggregate price responses is associated with a dampening effect on aggregate real economic activity and a stronger effect on the aggregate price level we illustrate by means of a multi sector sticky price model augmented by a cost channel how key structural parameters would have had to change to match this evolution of sectoral price dynamics

futures options and the volatility of futures prices assuming nonstochastic interest rates european futures options are shown to be european options written on a particular asset referred to as a futures bond consequently standard option pricing results may be invoked and standard option pricing techniques may be employed in the case of european futures options additional arbitrage restrictions on american futures options are derived the efficiency of a number of futures option markets is examined assuming that at the money american futures options are priced accurately by black s european futures option pricing model the relationship between market participants ex ante assessment of futures price volatility and the term to maturity of the underlying futures contract is also investigated empirically

paradoxes and dilemmas for stakeholder responsive firms in the extractive sector lessons from the case of shell and the ogoni this paper examines some of the paradoxes and dilemmas facing firms in the extractive sector when they attempt to take on a more stakeholder responsive orientation towards issues of environmental and social responsibility we describe the case of shell and the ogoni and attempt to draw out some of the lessons of that case for more sustainable operations in the developing world we argue that firms such as shell rio tinto and others may well exhibit increasingly stakeholder responsive behaviours at the corporate strategic level however for reasons of strategy lack of competency or institutional will this increasing level of corporate responsiveness may not be mirrored effectively in dealings between subsidiary business units and their most important direct stakeholders for example local communities and in the developing world we contrast the struggles of shell to replicate its corporate stakeholder responsiveness at the local level in nigeria with the experiences of other firms that seem to have developed managerial capabilities at a somewhat deeper level throughout the firm with consequent benefits both for stakeholders and the business

valuation of american futures options theory and empirical tests this paper reviews the theory of futures option pricing and tests the valuation principles on transaction prices from the s p 500 equity futures option market the american futures option valuation equations are shown to generate mispricing errors which are systematically related to the degree the option is in the money and to the option s time to expiration the models are also shown to generate abnormal risk adjusted rates of return after transaction costs the joint hypothesis that the american futures option pricing models are correctly specified and that the s p 500 futures option market is efficient is refuted at least for the sample period january 28 1983 through december 30 1983 futures option contracts now trade on every major futures exchange and on a wide variety of underlying futures contracts the chicago mercantile exchange the chicago board of trade the new york futures exchange and the commodity exchange now collectively have more than twenty options written on futures contracts where the underlying spot commodities are financial assets such as stock portfolios bonds notes and eurodollars foreign currencies such as west german marks swiss francs and british pounds precious metals such as gold and silver livestock commodities such as cattle and hogs and agricultural commodities such as corn and soybeans moreover new contract applications are before the commodity futures trading commission and should be actively trading in the near future with the markets for these new contingent claims becoming increasingly active it is appropriate that the fundamentals of futures option valuation be reviewed and tested black 5 provides a framework for the analysis of commodity futures options although his work is explicitly directed at pricing european options on forward contracts it applies to european futures contracts as well if the riskless rate of interest is constant during the futures option life 1 the options currently

undesirable facilities and property values a summary of empirical studies abstract undesirable land uses are expected to impose health or amenity risks on surrounding communities these risks are expected to be translated economically into negative effects on adjacent property values these negative effects may be present even when such uses possess offsetting advantages of proximity such as employment opportunities the purpose of this study is to summarize empirical studies completed to date that test whether undesirable land uses have observable negative effects on adjacent property values this information may be useful in assessing minimum valuations of terminating undesirable land uses such as clean up of hazardous sites or compensation necessary to ameliorate the economic impacts of new undesirable uses

environmental policy the porter hypothesis and the composition of capital effects of learning and technological progress abstract in this paper the effect of environmental policy on the composition of capital is investigated by allowing for nonlinearities it generalizes xepapadeas and de zeeuw j environ econ manage 37 1999 165 and determines scenarios in which their results do not carry over in particular we show that the way acquisition cost of investment decreases with the age of the capital stock is of crucial importance we also focus more explicitly on learning and technological progress among others we obtain that in the presence of learning implementing a stricter environmental policy with the aim to reach a certain target of emissions reduction has a stronger negative effect on industry profits which implies quite the opposite as to what is described by the porter hypothesis

the valuation of options on futures contracts rational restrictions are derived for the values of american options on futures contracts for these options the optimal policy in general involves premature exercise a model is developed for valuing options on futures contracts in a constant interest rate setting despite the fact that premature exercise may be optimal the value of this american feature appears to be small and a european formula due to black serves as a useful approximation finally a model is developed to value these options in a world with stochastic interest rates it is shown that the pricing errors caused by ignoring the location of the interest rate relative to its long run mean range from 5 to 7 when the current rate is 200 basis points from its long run value the role of interest rate expectations is therefore crucial to the valuation optimal exercise policies are found from numerical methods for both models in recent years there has been a steady growth in the number of financial assets which one might properly call derivative assets that are available for trading on the organized exchanges among these the most recent and notable are options contracts written on available futures contracts options are now traded on the futures contracts on stock market indexes on the futures contracts on treasury instruments on the futures contracts on foreign exchange rates and on the futures contracts on some metals in design these options contracts do not differ substantially from the well known options contracts on common stock except that the underlying asset is a futures contract the received theory of the valuation of these options suggests that such contracts provide a direct vehicle for investors to alter the terminal payoffs on their portfolios to a desired distribution in the absence of these contracts investors would be forced to pursue a dynamic portfolio policy at the expense of considerable transactions in order to achieve a similar distribution indeed the availability of put options on the futures contracts on stock market indexes now enables well diversified investors to purchase portfolio insurance in his seminal work black 1 provided a complete description of forward and futures contracts as well as the description and valuation of european options on forward contracts and on spot commodities breeden 3 has examined the use of commodity options in a theoretical framework and courtadon 6 has studied the valuation of options on treasury bond futures french 13 cox