labor market segmentation a cluster analysis of job groupings and barriers to entry real expenditures on public assistance programs have increased substantially in the past two decades as has real per capita income investments in a variety of education programs have risen and a number of jobs programs have been tried although there have been some gains for example a decline in the percentage of the population in poverty 31 474 a number of disparities persist unemployment remains at record levels and the prospect for sizable reductions in the unemployment rate seems quite small there are persistent differences between the mean household incomes of blacks and whites that have not narrowed at all during the past two decades 15 there is also a widespread perception that a disadvantaged segment of the u s population has no effective access to good jobs and if such persons get them they do not stay employed for long this means that many such adults are caught in a cycle of unemployment welfare dependency bad jobs and intermittent employment whereas there is nearly universal agreement that the persistent disparities in well being are undesirable there is considerable disagreement on what to do about this in part the disagreement stems from ignorance about the facts for example rigorous operational definitions of good and bad jobs have not been developed the notion that some persons do not have access to the good jobs is primarily based on anecdotes fortunately longitudinal data bases are now available that permit more rigorous empirical analysis of such issues

the quality of employment in india s services sector exploring the heterogeneity for some observers the dramatic growth of the services sector in india reflects rapid strides made by educated professionals some others see it as the expansion of an employer of last resort given this heterogeneity the object of this article is to analyse the quality of employment being created in different sub sectors of services relative to the industrial sector where quality is defined to include wages job security and social protection analysing household survey data from india in 1993 94 and 2004 05 we find the following first sub sectors of services are generally either good or bad employers higher wages do not compensate for less job security or less job protection second the classification of most service sub sectors as good or bad employers in 2004 05 is the same as that in 1993 94 third employment expansion during the 10 year period under consideration is more in service sub sectors where quality of employment is low

sex and sector differences in the dynamics of wage growth in the federal republic of germany research on wage differentials for men and women and for labor market sectors has relied largely on cross sectional analysis using data on three cohorts of west german men and women we bring a dynamic perspective to these issues by analyzing wage changes for three aspects of work histories 1 wage rate at time offirst entry into the labor market 2 wage changes when workers change jobs and 3 wage growth within jobs education affects first wages for men and women but the effect weakens sharply over time education also has a significant positive impact on wage growth within jobs over the entire period for men and a positive but not significant effect for women highly educated women do less well than other women when changing jobs consistent with the view that advancement for such women is impeded by a glass ceiling labor market segment affects initial wages and wage gains due to a job change however movement into internal labor markets skilled jobs in large firms does not confer an initial payoff in wages workers in sectors characterized by internal labor markets do not experience higher than average wage growth within jobs a result that runs counter to theories of segmented labor markets finally wages grow at a decreasing rate with duration of job for both men and women however wage growth is initially more rapid for women but also declines more sharply over time

factor models and time varying parameter framework for forecasting exchange rates and inflation a survey a survey of models used for forecasting exchange rates and inflation reveals that the factor based and time varying parameter or state space models generate superior forecasts relative to all other models this survey also finds that models based on taylor rule and portfolio balance theory have moderate predictive power for forecasting exchange rates the evidence on the use of bayesian model averaging approach in forecasting exchange rates reveals limited predictive power but strong support for forecasting inflation overall the evidence overwhelmingly points to the context of the forecasts relevance of the historical data data transformation choice of the benchmark selected time horizons sample period and forecast evaluation methods as the crucial elements in selecting forecasting models for exchange rate and inflation

imposing exchange controls to dampen currency speculation political risk and the french franc 1976 1984 abstract this work offers a portfolio model of exchange rate determination that embodies risk averse agents expectations of shifts in the government s exchange control policy the time dependent probability of the imposition of exchange controls is shown to produce systematic variations in the political risk premium the model examines the effects of french president mitterand s may 1981 imposition of exchange controls on the dollar franc exchange rate while exchange rate risk dominates political risk during the vast majority of the sample period large deviations in the political risk premium are observed around the time of the imposition of controls

wage determination for career and non career workers in the uk is there labour market segmentation this study proposes that the earnings of career employees are influenced by a different set of parameters from the earnings of non career employees the above proposition is tested by using a matched employer employee sample within the econometric framework of a bivariate sample selection model where the career status is modelled as endogenous and is subject to choice decisions

minimum wages and the gender wage gap estimates are made of the effect of minimum wages on the size and composition of the gender wage gap in canada in 1986 it is found that minimum wages close the wage gap substantially for young workers and less so for adults the reduction in the gap is most attributable to the adverse employment effects of minimum wages the results also indicate that most of the reduction in the gap is realized through a fall in the discriminatory component

in search of the exchange risk premium a six currency test assuming mean variance optimization abstract a number of authors examining deviations of actual rates of currency depreciation from forward discounts have claimed to find evidence of risk premiums if these deviations are indeed partly due to risk premiums rather than being entirely due to expectational errors then they should be systematically related to those variables on which risk premiums are thought to depend finance theory tells us that if investors optimize with respect to mean and variance the risk premium depends in a specific way on 1 the supplies of assets denominated in the various currencies 2 the variance covariance matrix of the rates of return and 3 the coefficient of risk aversion the null hypothesis of this paper is that the coefficient of risk aversion is zero countries assets are perfect substitutes and risk premiums are nonexistent the alternative hypothesis is that rates of return are systematically related to asset supplies by a macroeconomic portfolio balance function the maximum likelihood technique used dominates previous attempts to find such a relationship in that the parameters of the portfolio balance function are constrained to depend on the variance covariance matrix as the finance theory says they should on the other hand the technique also dominates previous applications of the finance theory in that the expected returns are allowed to vary over time as the macroeconomic portfolio balance theory says they should the paper s finding is a statistical inability to reject the null hypothesis for a portfolio of six currencies although this could be due to low power in the test

a decomposition method on employment and wage discrimination and its application in urban china 2002 2013 abstract labor market discrimination is an important issue in developing countries where path dependent institutions have been dominant while effective institutional arrangements and policies have been hidden by local customs and culture however the existing applications of classical blinder oaxaca decomposition face criticism for their imprecise understanding of the factors affecting institutional discrimination in labor markets as well as for their lack of power in formulating well targeted anti discrimination policies following oaxaca 1973 we propose a new method to decompose the total discrimination index tdi to analyze employment and wage discrimination in the labor markets of developing countries the tdi is decomposed into the employment discrimination index edi and the wage discrimination index wdi then into the underpayment index to majorities upi and the overpayment index to minorities opi we apply this method to the institutional discrimination against rural migrants in china s urban areas using national representative data from 2002 to 2013 we have found that 1 the tdi increased quickly after china entered the wto then dropped after anti discrimination policies were implemented 2 the tdi is mainly determined by the upi while the tdi s fluctuation is mainly determined by the wdi our method provides insights into the changing composition of employment and wage discrimination and their respective labor market outcomes in developing countries as a result appropriate policy measures may be developed accordingly

starting even job mobility and the wage gap between young single males and females standard econometric analysis of male female earnings differentials ignores job mobility despite its vital role in theories of discrimination and its demonstrated importance in explaining the earnings of young men this paper develops a model of male and female earnings and job mobility and estimates it for young single men and women in canada using the 1981 survey of work history the results corrected for sample selection bias arising from job mobility suggest that male and female earnings determination differs considerably by job mobility status returns to mobility are much greater for males than for females the results also show significantly different mobility behaviour for men and women but if anything females are more mobile than males faced with the same earnings opportunities thus differential job mobility behaviour does not appear to account for any portion of the male female earnings gap

further evidence of the relevance of the dual labor market hypothesis for the u k this study proposes that the earnings of career employees are influenced by a different set of parameters from the earnings of non career employees the above proposition is tested by using a matched employer employee sample within the econometric

real wages in the business cycle and the theory of income distribution an unresolved conflict between theory and facts in mainstream macroeconomics the focus of this article is the recurring tension between mainstream macroeconomics and observed facts in connection with the difficult task of providing explanations of the business cycle consistent both with the traditional theory of income distribution and with the empirical evidence concerning the co movements of real wages and employment over the cycle the attempts to reconcile facts and theory have led to the continuous introduction of specific and arguably ad hoc hypotheses in contrast with the search for greater theoretical rigour claimed by the various streams of macroeconomic modelling subsequent to the neo classical synthesis in addition the specific assumptions introduced in the models or their implications are in turn often contradicted or at best not confirmed by subsequent empirical research it is suggested in the conclusions that the difficulty of keeping together in a simple and consistent framework theory and facts reflects the flawed theoretical foundations of mainstream theory

segmented labour markets and the estimation of wage functions this paper uses a stratified random sample of private sector employees to estimate wage equations for both the male labour market as a whole and six segments of the labour market segement which are defined with respect to the industry and size characteristics of the employing establishmen highly conventional results are obtained when wage equations are estimated for the male labour market as a whole or within two segements comprising almost half the survey population however one can reject conclusively the hypothesis that the same estimating equation is appropriate for modelling wage determination in all segments and if a human capital hk model is within segements tested against more appropriate alternative hypotheses for wage determination using the davidson and mackinnon 1981 methodology for the testing of non nested hypotheses the conclusion is that one should reject the hk specification and not reject the alternative it is therefore argued that the disaggregation of labour market dat

labour market segmentation a local labour market analysis using alternative approaches earlier studies have generally attempted to establish the presence or otherwise of labour market segmentation using a single technique using data drawn form the british social and economic life initiative sceli for six local labour markets this paper tests for segmentation using four different methods of analysis a simple career non career model cluster analysis and switching regressions the results in general suggest that explanatory power is not improved by analysing the labour market in different segments but this simple career model points to higher rewards for given characteristics in the career sector and the results of the switching regression model are consistent with duality in one of the six markets

labor market integration in urban ethiopia 1994 2004 abstractan analysis of panel data on individuals in a random selection of urban households in ethiopia reveals large sustained and unexplained earnings gaps between public and private and formal and informal sectors over 1994 2004 at the same time we find first that the rate of mobility increased in the two pairs of sectors sample transitions rates grew across survey waves while state dependence in sector choice decreased second the correlation between sector choice and earnings gaps increased over the same period in particular the correlation between comparative earnings and selection into the informal sector was high throughout the survey decade and increased in magnitude over the second half of the period these results suggest that ethiopia s urban labor markets might be integrating

pension design with a large informal labor market evidence from chile this article investigates the fiscal and welfare trade offs involved in designing a pension system when workers can avoid contributing by working informally using a life cycle model of labor supply and saving decisions i structurally estimate preferences and earnings opportunities in the formal and informal sectors using data on chilean households i find limited support for formal jobs rationing instead mandatory pension contributions significantly encourage informality policy experiments show that chile could lower minimum pension spending by 23 while guaranteeing the same income to retirees if the minimum pension s implicit tax rate was increased to 60

unemployment and interindustry labour mobility in canada in the 1980s the determinants of interindustry mobility of labour and its relationship to the unemployment rate is examined using micro data on canadian workers from 1980 81 1982 83 and 1985 86 it contrasts the implications of the dynamic reallocation model lilien 1982 in which rising aggregate unemployment is due to in creased dispersion in the net hiring rates of firms implying positive covariance of interindustry mobility and unemployment rates with the older keynesian perspective that high unemployment chills labour market mobility implying a neative relationship qualified support is obtained for the chilling model as well as standard results on the role of job tenure hours worked etc the general moral is the cyclical sensitivity of labour market behaviour i e individuals appear to react to the aggregate unemployment rate

economic growth and environmental degradation the environmental kuznets curve and sustainable development abstract in this paper we critically examine the concept of the environmental kuznets curve ekc it proposes that there is an inverted u shape relation between environmental degradation and income per capita so that eventually growth reduces the environmental impact of economic activity the concept is dependent on a model of the economy in which there is no feedback from the quality of the environment to production possibilities and in which trade has a neutral effect on environmental degradation the actual violation of these assumptions gives rise to fundamental problems in estimating the parameters of an ekc the paper identifies other econometric problems with estimates of the ekc and reviews a number of empirical studies the inference from some such ekc estimates that further development will reduce environmental degradation is dependent on the assumption that world per capita income is normally distributed when in fact median income is far below mean income we carry out simulations combining ekc estimates from the literature with world bank forecasts for economic growth for individual countries aggregating over countries to derive the global impact within the horizon of the bank s forecast 2025 global emissions of so 2 continue to increase forest loss stabilizes before the end of the period but tropical deforestation continues at a constant rate throughout the period

fishing in different pools job search strategies and job finding success in canada in the early 1980s this article examines the job search methods of jobless workers and emphasizes sample selectivity in choice of job search strategies especially use of public employment agencies longitudinal data from the labour force survey of canada for 1981 1983 and 1986 indicate that job search methods change with the business cycle and that many people find jobs without any reported search the determinants of job search success also vary substantially over the business cycle implying a substantial social return to public employment agencies at the 1983 trough of the recession but no noticeable benefits when aggregate unemployment is relatively low

internal and external labour mobility in canada quasi longitudinal canadian microdata was used to compare the movement of individuals between employers with job changes taking place within firms internal mobility is found to be much less common than job changing between firms workers changing jobs within a firm are more likely to be older and have higher wages and longer tenures in the jobs they leave than individuals employers this provides some support for the job matching hypothesis underlying recent research on the causes of individual mobility although it is also clear that workers in large or unionized firms are more likely to have the opportunity for internal promotion while wage gains obtained through internal mobility are smaller than those achieved through external mobility wage levels are higher for individuals moving within the firm it is argued that this observation is consistent with a dual labour markets interpretation of mobility patterns

links between rural poverty and the environment in developing countries asset categories and investment poverty abstract this paper presents a framework for analyzing the links between poverty and the environment in rural areas of developing countries it introduces the concept of investment poverty and relates it to other measures of poverty in analysis of these links the notion of poverty is examined in the context of categories of assets and categories of environment change with particular focus on farm household income generation and investment strategies as determinants of the links the strength and direction of the poverty environment links are shown to differ even invert depending on the composition of the assets held by the rural poor and the types of environmental problems they face policy strategies need to focus on conditioning variables that affect market development community wealth infrastructure household asset distribution and the affordability and appropriateness of natural resource conservation technologies

wage determination in agricultural labour markets under monopsonist labour tying arrangements there is need for a study of wage formation in agricultural labour markets which can simultaneously explain the existence of involuntary unemployment on the one hand and responsiveness to market forces on the other this paper offers an analysis and empirical study of wage determination in a typical rural agricultural setting and finds that based on the notion of efficiency wages a two tier situation explains why rural wage rates are known to vary widely among workers and across regions

informal employment in developing countries opportunity or last resort there is an ongoing debate among researchers and policy makers whether informal sector employment is a result of competitive market forces or labor market segmentation more recently it has been argued that none of the two theories sufficiently explains informal employment but that the informal sector shows a heterogenous structure for some workers the informal sector is an attractive employment opportunity whereas for others rationed out of the formal sector the informal sector is a strategy of last resort to test the empirical relevance of this hypothesis we formulate an econometric model which allows for several unobserved segments within the informal sector and apply it to the urban labor market in cote d ivoire

economic and biological conditions influence the sustainability of harvest of wild animals and plants in developing countries abstract promoting sustainable use of wild animals and plants is a global target in biodiversity conservation however the role of wild harvest as a conservation tool remains controversial when unsustainable wild harvesting leads to population decline or even extirpation of species when sustainable it has the potential to promote win win solutions for conservation and development we reviewed 87 cases of wild harvesting of vertebrates and plants in developing countries to understand the conditions influencing its sustainability we used random forest and logistic regression to find the most important predictors among a range of biological demographic and economic indicators and to detail the predicted effects on sustainability of harvest species resilience gdp per capita and poverty headcount ratio were the strongest predictors of sustainability species resilience was positively related to sustainability of harvest whereas gdp per capita and poverty ratio were negatively related harvesting a species with low resilience is more likely to be unsustainable when harvested in a middle income high poverty ratio country than in a low income low poverty ratio country this study highlights the risks of wild population harvest under the challenging economic conditions inherent in developing countries and visualize where efforts are most needed to achieve sustainable harvest

asymmetric labor market reforms effects on wage growth and conversion probability of fixed term contracts the authors investigate the impact of a change in employment protection laws in portugal that increased the maximum legal duration of fixed term contracts they find that this reform led to a reduction in the probability that a worker on a fixed term contract would be converted to a permanent contract in addition those workers who had their contracts converted experienced a significantly higher hourly wage growth at the time of conversion and faced a lower reduction in wage growth during the years in which the changed legislation was in force consequently the implementation of this law led to a 27 increase in the wage growth differential between the two contracts the findings are based on an endogenous regime switching model using rich administrative linked employer employee data

do asset demand functions optimize over the mean and variance of real returns a six currency test abstract international asset demands are functions of expected returns optimal portfolio theory tells us that the coefficients in this relationship depend on the variance covariance matrix of real returns but previous estimates of the optimal portfolio 1 assume expected returns constant and 2 are not set up to test the hypothesis of mean variance optimization we use maximum likelihood estimation to impose a constraint between the coefficients and the error variance covariance matrix for a portfolio of six currencies we are able statistically to reject the constraint evidently investors are either not sophisticated enough to maximize a function of the mean and variance of end of period wealth or else are too sophisticated to do so

segmented labour markets theory and evidence this paper examines the possibility of accepting the labour market segmentation approach as a valid alternative to the classical and neo classical analysis of labour markets it consists of three main parts the urst part contains a historical analysis of both the distant and recent origins of the labour market segmentation hypothesis part two outlines the central ideas of both segmentationalists and radical theorists who attempted to explain the fragmented nature of labour markets and the importance of institutional and social inuuences upon pay employment and mobility of individual workers between different labour market sectors the third part examines the case for labour market segmentation using four alternative techniques and discusses the issue of mobility among different labour market segments it is thereby concluded that the lack of agreement among the segmented labour market theorists on both theoretical and methodological issues has prevented them from developing a consistent and convincing argument based on veriuable empirical evidence to validate their thesis

testing spanish labour market segmentation an unknown regime approach this paper studies the existence of two differentiated segments primary and secondary in the spanish labour market for this a methodology switching regression model with unknown regimes is used which on the one hand does not demand a priori demarcation of segments and on the other enables the allocation of workers to the segments to be treated as a factor endogenous to the model itself and closely connected with the wage setting mechanisms operating in the segments the empirical results show that the assignment to segments is not random and that there are substantial differences in the wage determination process between the two sectors furthermore the model estimated has allowed analysis of the ex post composition of the segments and corroboration to a large extent of the predictions of the dual labour market theory

wage changes and job changes of canadian women the paper employs data from the 1986 87 labour market activity survey to investigate empirically how the wage rates of female paid workers in canada change when they change jobs in particular whether canadian women realize short run wage gains from job mobility following mincer 1986 we estimate the short run wage gain to job mobility by comparing the between job wage changes of current period job movers with the on the job wage growth of next period job movers the findings indicate that canadian women who changed jobs in 1986 realized short run wage gains of 8 9 percent and that women who quit their first job for nonpersonal job related reasons realized substantially greater wage gains than did women who quit for personal reasons were laid off or separated for other reasons

job mobility wage determination and market segmentation in the presence of sample selection bias this paper tests the hypothesis that mobility between jobs is an important determinant of individual wages and that econometric estimates of wage determination should correct for sample selectivity bias in job mobility we also test the hypothesis that different patterns of job mobility produce different appropriate corrections for sample selectivity bias in different segments of the labour market we conclude that labour market segments do differ and in particular that one can identify a marginal or low wage sector with mobility patterns and pay packages which differ from the pattern one can discern in the labour market as a whole mobilite entre emplois determination des salaires et segmentation du marche quand il y a biais de selection dans l ehantillonnage ce memoire verifie l hypothese que la mobilite entre emplois est un element determinant des salaires des individus et la proposition que les calibrations econometriques du processus de determination des salaires doivent etre corrigees pour tenir compte d un biais de selection dans l echantillonnage de mouvements entre emplois les auteurs verifient aussi l hypothese que differents patterns de mobilite entre emplois commandent des corrections appropriees differentes dans differents segments du marche du travail les auteurs en arrivent a la conclusion que les divers segments du marche du travail sont differents et qu en particulier on peut reperer un secteur marginal ou de bas salaires ofu les patterns de mobilite entre emplois et les remunerations different remarquablement de ce qui se passe dans le marche du travail dans son ensemble

job mobility and earnings over the life cycle previous studies have shown that in the short run quits generally lead to wage increases on the next job and layoffs to no increase or to a wage cut the author of this study argues however that the prospect of a job change for any reason creates a disincentive for a worker to invest in training that is specific to the current job and therefore those who change jobs frequently may earn less over their life cycle than those who other things equal seldom change jobs an analysis of data from the national longitudinal survey of mature men supports that expectation showing that for white males job separations usually lead to wage gains in the short run but nonmobile workers tend to achieve significantly higher wages over the long run

is work special justice and the distribution of employment i investigate from an egalitarian welfarist standpoint the issue of whether state guaranteed employment should be offered as a matter of right to able bodied poor citizens who suffer chronic or persistent unemployment an affirmative answer is defended one consideration supporting this right to work is that provision of transfer aid in the form of jobs rather than cash screens nonneedy bohemians from the class of beneficiaries the main conclusion of the essay is defended from one objection based on efficiency wage models of the labor market and from another based on the alleged impossibility of maintaining the self respect and self esteem of able bodied individuals who fail to earn their own keep independently in a market economy

environmental income and rural livelihoods a global comparative analysis this paper presents results from a comparative analysis of environmental income from approximately 8000 households in 24 developing countries collected by research partners in cifor s poverty environment network pen environmental income accounts for 28 of total household income 77 of which comes from natural forests environmental income shares are higher for low income households but differences across income quintiles are less pronounced than previously thought the poor rely more heavily on subsistence products such as wood fuels and wild foods and on products harvested from natural areas other than forests in absolute terms environmental income is approximately five times higher in the highest income quintile compared to the two lowest quintiles

segmented labor markets new evidence from a study of four race gender groups using data from a supplement to the 1983 current population survey the author tests hypotheses of segmented labor market theory two labor market sectors a primary sector and secondary sector are identified on the basis of occupational segmentation as inferred from workers answers to the question of whether specific skills or prior training were conditions for their employment the results show significant unexplained earnings differentials across sectors for each of four groups black men black women white men and white women other segmented labor market hypotheses are also generally supported by the results but distinct variations are found across the four groups

the expansion of temporary help employment in the us 1982 1992 a test of alternative economic explanations employment in the temporary help supply ths industry more than tripled in the us between 1982 and 1992 during that period the variability and cyclical sensitivity of ths jobs their average weekly hours and real hourly earnings were extraordinarily high in addition changes in temporary employment levels disproportionately affect aggregate employment flows over this period one possible explanation of the dramatic rise and variability in ths jobs is demographic changes in the composition of the labour force towards groups believed to prefer impermanent job commitment or temporal flexibility in supplying labour services a contrasting view considers it part of an explicit human resource strategy increasingly adopted by firms seeking greater numerical or cost flexibility this strategy may reflect an employer response to greater volatility in demand intensifying price competition pressures in product markets and rising quasi fixed costs incurred for permanent employees such as nonwage benefits a tw

a test of dual labor market theory despite substantial differences in their views of the appropriate policy response to the existence of poverty neither the proponents of dual market theory nor its critics have proposed potentially conclusive tests of the dual market hypothesis this paper presents a test of the two central propositions of dual market theory 1 the existence of two distinct labor markets with different wage setting mechanisms and 2 the existence of barriers to mobility between the labor markets we find considerable support for both hypothesis estimation of a switching model of wage determination with unknown regimes yields two distinct wage equations the one which most workers are associated with closely resembles the standard human capital regression with significant returns to education and experience the other equation is flat with no returns to human capital these two equations resemble the predictions of dual market theory for the primary and secondary markets respectively further we present evidence that at least some non white workers are involuntarily confined to the secondary market this crowding of minority workers into the low wage labor market accounts for a substantial portion of white non white wage differences we interpret these results as providing empirical support for the dual market hypothesis and for recent theoretical work on efficiency wagemodels in addition combining the efficiency wage argument with the observation that much of the white non white wage difference is explained by the exclusion of non whites from the primary sector suggests an explanation for the persistance of wage differences this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

exchange rate risk premiums abstract a state space model which allows for the covariation of risk premiums and unexpected rates of depreciation is used to study exchange rate risk premiums we find that exchange rate risk premiums have a high degree of persistence and the covariance of risk premiums and unexpected rates of depreciation is negative regressions of the estimated risk premium on its determinants implied by the equilibrium model of lucas 1982 show limited support for the model jel f31

self fulfilling risk predictions an application to speculative attacks abstract we show that changing market beliefs about currency risk can generate a self fulfilling speculative attack on a fixed exchange rate the attack does not require a later change in policies to make it profitable we illustrate this point by introducing an endogenous risk premium into a first generation model of a speculative attack the model is further modified to take account of sterilization debt financed fiscal deficits and anticipatory price setting behavior we use the model to interpret the 1994 mexican peso crisis

matching turnover and unemployment this paper develops the view that workers move into and out of the labor market because of changes in the perceived value of their market opportunities a search model is combined with a matching model to yield movement of workers from job to job and into and out of employment

socioeconomic background schooling experience and monetary rewards in the united states using a selective sample from the 1977 panel study of income dynamics the authors investigate the relations among schooling job experience socioeconomic status ses iq and earnings in the united states in contrast to the results for the united kingdom reported by john papanicolaou and george psacharopoulos we find no interaction effect on earnings between schooling and ses a positive interaction effect on earnings however is found between experience and ses introducing iq in the analysis leaves the above mentioned results unchanged it is argued that differences between the u s and the u k might be due to cultural and labor market factors copyright 1986 by the review of economic studies limited

the rate of return to investments in on the job training in this paper we use the overtaking method to calculate marginal rates of return to on the job training as we have no prior information on who invests in ojt and who does not we use a switching regression model with unknown regimes to obtain parameter estimates of the wage profiles the estimation results show that lower intercepts are associated with steeper wage profiles this confirms the prediction that those who invest in ojt have lower initial wages but higher wage growth we further find that the marginal rate of return to ojt is high and increases with education

incentive compatible long term contracts and job rationing this article presents a model in which markets for long term contractual employment coexist with spot markets for labor assuming the absence of third party enforcement wage contracts are required to be incentive compatible as a consequence contract wages yield higher expected utility to the worker than spot market wages so that in equilibrium contractual long term jobs are rationed

forests livelihoods and conservation broadening the empirical base summary more than 10 000 years after the agricultural revolution started millions of rural smallholders across the developing world may still derive as much income from foraging forests and wildlands as from cultivating crops these steady environmental income flows come often from public forests and are extracted by men and women alike however inflexible supplies from nature the physical hardship of harvesting and commonly low returns limit their role as safety nets and pathways out of poverty while their harvesting does not preclude the ongoing conversion of wildlands to agriculture privileged access to high quality environmental resources can become a strong local conservation motive

collapsing exchange rate regimes some linear examples abstract we construct a pair of linear examples to study the collapse time of a fixed exchange rate regime the first example is a perfect foresight continuous time model which allows calculation of the exact collapse time and the tracking of reserves the second example is a discrete time stochastic model which yields an endogenous probability distribution over the collapse time and produces a forward discount of the exchange rate

minimum wage legislation in a dual labor market the paper studies the equilibrium effects of minimum wage legislation in an economy with coexisting primary and secondary labor markets owing to difficulties in monitoring relative wages and the threat of job loss play a functional role in eliciting effort from primary sector workers minimum wage laws hence affect the primary wage and employment level even if the law only binds in the secondary labor market furthermore interaction between the two sectors can also alter the secondary outcome relative to the standard analysis and has implications for participation decisions and for the level of unemployment

family labour supply and labour market segmentation this paper examines the differences in individuals labour supply decisions in different segments of the labour market it tests one of the main hypotheses of the dual labour market theory that the labour market can be divided into at least two segments and also whether the family labour supply decisions of individuals differ in the two segments the possibility of individuals wage rates depending on the number of hours worked is recognized and a model is developed in which both the wage rates and hours of work of individuals are jointly determined with the personal income tax system as an intervening variable since hours of labour supply depend on the post tax wage rate whereas if the marginal product of labour is a positive function of hours worked this affects the pre tax wage rates other alternative wage functions are specified and a simultaneous equations labour supply model using three stage least squares 3sls procedure is estimated the results indicate that there was sample selectivity bias

testing the dual labor market hypothesis evidence from the israel labor mobility survey little research seems to have addressed the testing of the dual labor market model for nondeveloping economies outside the u s and the u k this paper examines the hypothesis for israel utilizing individual data drawn from the israel labor mobility survey and assigning workers to primary and secondary sectors on the basis of occupational prestige scores earnings functions are estimated and compared for the two sectors the results are very closely in line with predictions of the dual labor market model thus strongly suggesting that the dual labor market hypothesis may be relevant for israel

segmented labour markets in australia the concept and measurement of segmented labour markets has received little attention in australia here a method for establishing a taxonomy of occupaions according to characteristics associated with the segmented labour market hypothesis is presented using this taxonomy the distribution of workers in australia according to gender migrant status and trade union membershipis examined

job matching and occupational choice this paper presents a model of job matching the generalizes the existing literature by allowing for different jobs types or occupations such differences affect the value of job specific experience inducing a career profile where certain types are sampled before others more specifically the analysis shows that it is optimal for the young and inexperienced to gravitate toward jobs exhibiting a certain kind of risk then after deriving the equilibrium job turnover rate for an economy in which people do not switch occupations panel data are used to estimate its underlying parameters the hypothesis that people do not switch occupations is rejected against the alternative that they do thus providing empirical support for the theoretical extension undertaken here

fiml estimation of the dollar deutschemark risk premium in a portfolio model abstract this paper tests the null of a constant risk premium against an alternative where the risk premium changes with regimes the reduced form equations for the spot rate and the net supply of foreign assets are derived from a portfolio model and a flow equation for the current account regime changes alter the spot rate forecast variance and consequently change demand elasticities and reduced form parameters using data for 1964 83 and permitting regime changes in 1969 1973 and 1979 we fit our model with fiml to impose all the theoretical restrictions in some specifications we find evidence for risk aversion

undocumented mexico u s migration and the returns to households in rural mexico this paper presents estimates of net income gains to a sample of households in rural mexico from sending migrants illegally to the united states correcting for sample selectivity bias and it examines the role of expected income gains in driving illegal mexico u s migration there is no evidence that people who migrate illegally to the united states are above average contributors to household income either as workers in mexico or as mexico u s migrants however other things being equal villagers who are in the best position to contribute to household income as workers in mexico are positively selected not to migrate to the united states

conditional variance and the risk premium in the foreign exchange market abstract we investigate the existence of a risk premium in the foreign exchange market based on the conditional variance of market forecast errors the forecast errors are assumed to follow the arch process introduced by engle 1982 estimation and diagnostic testing of the model are discussed and results are presented for the currencies of the united kingdom france germany japan and switzerland