political uncertainty and stock market returns evidence from the 1995 quebec referendum abstract in this study we investigate the short run effect of the 30 october 1995 quebec referendum on the common stock returns of quebec firms our results show that the uncertainty surrounding the referendum outcome had an impact on stock returns of quebec firms we also find that the effect of the referendum varied with the political risk exposure of quebec firms that is the structure of assets and principally the degree of foreign involvement jel classification g14 g15

valuing the attributes of renewable energy investments increasing the proportion of power derived from renewable energy sources is becoming an increasingly important part of many countries s strategies to achieve reductions in greenhouse gas emissions however renewable energy investments can often have external costs and benefits which need to be taken into account if socially optimal investments are to be made this paper attempts to estimate the magnitude of these external costs and benefits for the case of renewable technologies in scotland a country which has set particularly ambitious targets for expanding renewable energy the external effects we consider are those on landscape quality wildlife and air quality we also consider the welfare implications of different investment strategies for employment and electricity prices the methodology used to do this is the choice experiment technique renewable technologies considered include hydro on shore and off shore wind power and biomass welfare changes for different combinations of impacts associated with different investment strategies are estimated we also test for differences in preferences towards these impacts between urban and rural communities and between high and low income households

the effect of political uncertainty on the stock market the case of british telecom 1989 the effect of political uncertainty on the stock market the case of british telecom applied economics vol 21 no 7 pp 881 890

the brazilian experience of rural electrification in the amazon with decentralized generation the need to change the paradigm from electrification to development abstract there are at least 607 thousand households in the brazilian amazon that need to be attended with some form of regular electricity service these households are not attended by the electricity sector through its electricity distribution companies and most of them have some form of precarious decentralized electricity generation that is not registered or regulated in the institutional framework diverse initiatives were taken by brazilian government to attend these household through alternatives that relied on locally available renewable energy this paper accesses this initiatives of rural electrification in the brazilian amazon first an overview of the problems of rural electricity are discussed and its specificities in the brazilian amazon then the brazilian institutional framework that organizes the decentralized electricity generation is described with its various limitations the diverse initiatives undertaken to attend the rural communities in the amazon since the 1990s are described as well as how these initiatives are linked to the policies for rural electrification the results shows that it can be inferred that sole market mechanisms are not sufficient to guarantee economic sustainability of these projects this can be one of the reasons why traditional electricity distribution companies showed the lack of interest in promoting rural electrification with other means than grid extension the most successful projects had financed efforts to integrate the generation of electricity into local development initiatives in order to guarantee sustainability and used substantial part of funding for local mobilization and organization it needs a paradigm chance by treating these initiatives as local development initiatives and promoting alternative ways for its implementation through partnership between local new actors in the electricity sector and government and implementing policy on a local municipal level

biofuel from jatropha curcas environmental sustainability and option value abstract this paper considers the use of a non edible plant jatropha curcas j curcas for the production of biofuel as a substitute for traditional fossil fuel it is shown that the net energy balance and greenhouse gases ghgs balance are positive the investment value in biofuel from j curcas is also studied and both its intrinsic and option values are calculated a reference case is evaluated namely the cultivation of j curcas as a substitute for conventional fuel in a specific less developed country kenya that lies in the tropical region where j curcas grows the investment is modeled as a perpetual investment call option it is shown that the net present value is positive for a vast range of discount factors and investment costs while the option value depends crucially on the parameters of the model a positive option value points out those cases in which it is optimal to defer the investment even if it entails a positive and possibly high net present value

estimating willingness to pay from survey data an alternative pre test market evaluation procedure closed ended contingent valuation surveys are used to assess demands in hypothetical markets and recently have been applied widely to the valuation of non market environmental resources this int

heterogeneity in preferences for woody biomass energy in the us mountain west abstract millions of acres of public forest in the us mountain west are substantially degraded and are in need of restoration mechanized restoration treatments can improve forest health and reduce the likelihood of severe wildfire these treatments produce some timber and substantial amounts of forest residues that can be used to generate renewable energy and displace fossil fuels using the choice modeling method this study investigates social preferences for generation of energy with woody biomass produced by restoration treatments on public forests in the mountain west both multinomial logit and latent class logit lcl models are fit to the data and used to estimate marginal willingness to pay mwtp for increased amounts of woody biomass energy generation and important associated co benefits and costs positive and statistically significant mwtp is found for the number of homes powered with wood the extent of healthy forests avoiding increases in the number of large wildfires and local air quality significant heterogeneity was found in respondent preferences for the attributes the heterogeneity can be explained in part by sociodemographic and attitudinal characteristics of respondents the lcl revealed four classes of respondents with distinct preferences revealing conflicting viewpoints toward forest management for woody biomass energy generation

the role and behaviour of commercial property investors and developers in french urban regeneration the experience of the paris region summary this paper provides an analysis of the factors underlying private investment decisions concerning property development with specific reference to urban regeneration in the french context it is based on the results of a behavioural survey and mca analysis of the behaviour patterns and motivations of active private investors and developers in the french commercial property markets and their involvement in french urban regeneration initiatives the pattern of investment and development activity over the 1997 2002 french property market recovery period has been studied and a typology of actors set up based on their investment policy for these property markets the findings indicate that property investors in urban regeneration essentially seek speculative developments and short term investments

determinants of protest responses in environmental valuation a meta study abstract certain design characteristics of stated preference surveys are often linked to protest responses the dichotomous choice format for example is said to result in fewer protest responses however not much is known at present about the relationship between survey characteristics and the level of protesting only partial analysis comparing for instance the influence of different payment vehicles on protesting has been conducted to date this paper analyses the determinants of protest responses using 254 samples derived from 157 environmental valuation studies determinants include the elicitation format the payment vehicle the survey method and the geographical origin results of bivariate and multivariate analyses confirm some of the propositions presented in the literature such as a higher number of protesters when entrance fees are used as a payment vehicle however many of the characteristics included in the analysis do not significantly impact protesting another result is that reporting on identification and treatment of protest responses in subsequent analysis is inadequate in the majority of studies and would benefit from some standardisation

occupier requirements in commercial real estate markets changes in the business environment associated with globalisation innovation in information and communications technologies and the drive towards more flexible production systems should be reflected in changes in occupational requirements for property although much research assumes that property as a derived demand will simply be supplied in response to changed demand in practice the institutional structure of the market can act as a constraint on the provision of appropriate space empirical research into new working practices and their impact on the property portfolio suggest that change is muted and gradual in part this reflects resistance to the adoption of working practices in part it reflects the inertia of a traditional model of property procurement however there is growing evidence of innovation in the nature of provision and more active and strategic management of the property resource research in this area as in many other areas of real estate is hampered by lack of reliable and a

the wage gap between francophones and anglophones a canadian perspective 1970 2000 the wage gap between francophone and anglophone men from 1970 and 2000 fell by 25 percentage points within quebec but only by 10 points canada wide largely because the wages of quebec anglophones fell by 15 points relative to other canadian anglophones accordingly the canadian measure of the francophone gap better reflects the changing welfare of francophones than the quebec measure over half of the reduction in the canadian francophone wage gap is explained by rising francophone education levels in quebec the declining number and relative wages of anglophone workers is best explained by a falling demand for english speaking labour l ecart de salaires entre les hommes francophones et anglophones est tombe de 25 points de pourcentage au quebec entre 1970 et 2000 mais seulement de 10 points a l echelle canadienne largement parce que les salaires des anglophones au quebec sont tombes de 15 points par rapport aux autres canadiens anglophones en consequence la mesure canadienne de l ecart prend mieux la mesure du changement de bien etre des francophones que la mesure quebecoise plus de la moitie de la reduction dans l ecart au niveau canadien s explique par l accroissement des niveaux d education des francophones au quebec le nombre en declin des travailleurs anglophones et la chute de leurs salaires relatifs s expliquent par un declin dans la demande de travailleurs parlant anglais

political risk and the benefits of international portfolio diversification this paper examines the benefits of portfolio investment in the stock markets of politically risky countries by evaluating the effects of political risk constraints on the performance of a portfolio of international stocks we use monthly data on political risk ratings and stock returns for a sample of thirty six countries from april 1982 to december 1991 ex post and ex ante portfolio selection strategies are developed to assess the gains from international diversification efficient sets are derived using a quadratic programming technique we use four ex ante portfolio strategies whose optimal portfolio weights are those of the equally weighted portfolio the minimum variance portfolio the certainty equivalence tangency portfolio and the bayes stein portfolio the empirical findings based on the performance tests of jobson and korkie 1981 suggest that diversification among politically risky countries improves the risk return characteristics of optimal portfolios however the most striking benefit of the inclusion of politically risk countries in an international portfolio is the reduction in overall portfolio risk

predicting consumer demand responses to carbon labels abstract providing carbon footprint labels for all food products is a daunting and potentially infeasible project knowing how consumers substitute away from high carbon goods and what they choose as substitutes is essential for understanding which goods are likely to result in meaningful reductions in carbon emissions this paper proposes a model to systematically estimate how consumers will respond to information from a carbon footprint label our model uses consumers value of their individual carbon footprint with own and cross price elasticities of demand data on carbon emissions from life cycle analysis to simulate shifts in consumer demand for 42 food products and a non food composite and subsequent changes in carbon emissions from different labeling schemes our simulation results have several findings including 1 carbon labels can reduce emissions but labeling only some items could lead to perverse impacts where consumers substitute away from labeled goods to unlabeled goods with a higher carbon footprint 2 carbon labels can inform consumers such that their previous beliefs about carbon footprints matter and 3 carbon labels on alcohol and meat would achieve the largest decreases in carbon emissions among the 42 food products studied

conscientious vs ambivalent consumers do concerns about energy availability and climate change influence consumer behaviour abstract energy availability and climate change are interrelated concerns with economic components they need to be addressed by policy makers and they require changes in energy consumption this study examines whether concerns about energy availability and climate change influence consumer behaviour policy perceptions and beliefs about future energy consumption this question is investigated by analysing data from the eurobarometer 75 4 a comprehensive survey of citizens from all countries of the european union that was conducted in june 2011 n 26 840 the regression results show that people concerned about climate change were significantly more likely to take action to mitigate climate change and to be more favourably disposed towards energy policies and future changes in energy consumption than people who were not concerned about climate change on the other hand people who were concerned about energy availability undertook fewer actions and neither supported energy policies nor believed in future changes in energy consumption this surprising finding raises questions regarding the adequate communication of energy availability and policies to the public in the european union

consumer demand for green power and energy efficiency abstract this article examines reported willingness to pay for electric utility investments in renewable energy and energy efficiency resources using the results of deliberative polls conducted by electric utilities in texas 1 age education and salary tend to affect reported willingness to pay for utility investments in these resources intensive exposure to information about energy resource issues led to an increase in the number of respondents interested in paying a modest premium to support investments in both renewable energy resources and energy efficiency however average reported premiums actually declined following the polls as very high outlier responses moved to more reasonable values following the polls these results support the contention that informed dialogue about energy alternatives will result in broader interest in providing a modest level of support for these resources

political risk and foreign exchange rates an efficient market approach this paper examines the reaction of the foreign exchange market to the announcement of changes in the business environment of a country our results suggest that sampled political risk news conveys important information about a country s investment climate and causes its currency s exchange rate to vary it appears however that the reaction of the foreign exchange market is more dramatic for unfavorable events than for favorable events the evidence presented is also consistent with the hypothesis that the foreign exchange market is efficient in interpreting the type of event considered in this study

are consumers concerned about palm oil evidence from a lab experiment abstract a lab experiment evaluates the consumers willingness to pay wtp for food products made with and without palm oil palm oil production induces environmental damages and its consumption presents a health risk however the production of alternative oils raises land use issues in the experiment successive messages emphasizing the characteristics of palm oil and palm oil free products are delivered to participants information has a significant influence on wtp when it underlines the negative impact of the related product this effect is stronger for the palm oil product than for the palm oil free product the experiment also compares the welfare effects of two regulatory instruments namely a consumer information campaign versus a per unit tax because of the respective attributes of both palm oil and palm oil free products the information campaign improves welfare with a much larger impact than the tax

from linear fuel switching to multiple cooking strategies a critique and alternative to the energy ladder model abstract promoting sustainable development requires evaluating the technical and policy options that will facilitate the adoption and use of energy efficient and less polluting cooking stoves and practices the transition from traditional to modern fuels and devices has been explained by the energy ladder model that suggests that with increasing affluence a progression is expected from traditional biomass fuels to more advanced and less polluting fuels in this paper we evaluate the energy ladder model utilizing data from a four year 1992 96 case study of a village in mexico and from a large scale survey from four states of mexico we show that an alternate multiple fuel model of stove and fuel management based on the observed pattern of household accumulation of energy options rather than the simple progression depicted in the traditional energy ladder scenario more accurately depicts cooking fuel use patterns in rural households the multiple fuel model integrates four factors demonstrated to be essential in household decision making under conditions of resource scarcity or uncertainty a economics of fuel and stove type and access conditions to fuels b technical characteristics of cookstoves and cooking practices c cultural preferences and d health impacts this model also allows better estimates of the expected fuelwood demand and indoor air pollution in rural households

public support for reducing us reliance on fossil fuels investigating household willingness to pay for energy research and development abstract in order to reduce future dependence on foreign oil and emissions of co2 how much would us households be willing to pay annually to support increased energy research and development r d activities designed to replace fossil fuels does it matter whether the r d includes nuclear energy options we explore these questions using data from a unique set of national telephone and internet surveys using a national advisory referendum format the contingent valuation method is applied to estimate annual household willingness to pay wtp for us household support of a national energy research and development fund erdf for investments in energy sources not reliant on fossil fuels while accounting for the level of un certainty in voting responses the wtp modeling includes a comparison of both classic maximum likelihood estimation mle and bayesian analysis evidence indicates that mle and bayesian analysis achieve similar statistical inference while the bayesian analysis provides a narrower confidence interval around estimated wtp

social rented housing valuable asset or unsustainable burden the netherlands has maintained a high degree of intervention in the housing market through the 1980s it also has a very large social rented sector which comprises 40 per cent of the total housing

a critical analysis of housing finance reform in a super home ownership state the case of armenia communist countries in central and eastern europe commonly lacked market based mortgage finance systems the establishment of such systems is generally regarded as being a crucial part of the transition process across the region even though the emphasis placed on home ownership varies greatly a framework for analysing the adequacy of the housing reform process is applied to armenia as an example of a super home ownership state the housing economic and political context suggests that even if an efficient mortgage finance system were to be established the housing needs of large sections of the population would remain unmet this is because they would still be unable to afford to access finance or because of the nature of their housing need such is the prevalence of housing need and poverty that conventional subsidy programmes no matter how well designed are unlikely to fill the gap instead there is a need to draw on examples from development literature such as micro finance whereby relatively

preferences for domestic fuel analysis with socio economic factors and rankings in kolkata india abstract the choice of domestic fuel is a matter of great concern for households and policy makers in india this paper investigates the demand for domestic fuels when households face four choices fuelwood coal kerosene and lpg the study is based on a survey of 500 households in kolkata india the demand estimates are conducted using a two stage process where the first stage investigates choice and the second the quantity used determinants of fuel demand are identified and their relative importance shown extending the study the paper also analyses the choice of the main cooking fuel in terms of the households stated rankings of six fuels for five attributes the policy discussion indicates that subsidies have less potential to reduce polluting fuels such as coal and fuelwood due to weak cross price elasticities while increased availability of lpg and potentially also increased awareness of indoor air pollution have greater prospect

a model of housing tenure choice in australia abstract this paper reports the results of an econometric analysis of tenure choice in australia s two largest cities sydney and melbourne particular attention is given to assessing the significance of the user cost of owner occupied housing for tenure decisions using cross sectional data from a 1991 housing survey this study shows that including user costs in the tenure choice model results in a substantial improvement in goodness of fit but also causes the marginal probability for permanent income to become negative it is suggested that this may reflect a tendency for higher income groups in the two cities to live in inner locations where renting is more common because prices are high relative to rents

stock market reaction to capital investment decisions evidence from business relocations we investigate the stock market reaction to 447 announcements of business relocation decisions in the 1978 1990 period we find that the stock market reaction to such decisions is tied to the motive for the relocation and the implied prospects for the firm with the type of facility being relocated playing an insignificant role our finding reconciles several results in the literature concemmg the stock market reaction to announcements of capital investment decisions

low income homeownership american dream or delusion summary this paper is a critical analysis of recent us policy to promote low income homeownership it examines the ideology and assumptions buttressing this policy evidence on the effects of low income homeownership and the viability of homeownership as a strategy for low income families evidence suggests that the prospect for sustained growth in low income homeownership may be limited research does not provide uniform support for it as a tool for asset accumulation neighbourhood economic development or other social and political goals alleged effects of homeownership may be artefacts of self selection and the conflation of homeownership with unobserved characteristics coincident with buying homes what homeownership does and why are not well understood because of difficulties disentangling what homeownership means the elevation of low income homeownership to its current status has deflected political attention away from alternative policies for affordable housing

electricity consumption and economic growth in burkina faso a cointegration analysis abstract this study empirically establishes the direction of causality between electricity consumption and economic growth in burkina faso for the period 1968 2003 the bounds test yields evidence of cointegration between electricity consumption gdp and capital formation when electricity consumption and gdp are used as dependent variable causality results indicate that there is no significant causal relationship between electricity consumption and investment estimates however detect in the long run a bidirectional causal relationship between electricity use and real gdp there is also evidence of a positive feedback causal relationship between gdp and capital formation burkina faso is therefore an energy dependent country it is also a country in which electricity consumption is growing with the level of income all of this shows that electricity is a significant factor in socio economic development in burkina faso as such energy policy must be implemented to ensure that electricity generates fewer potential negative impacts

political risk in emerging and developed markets using analyst estimates of political risk we show that political risk represents a more important determinant of stock returns in emerging than developed markets average returns in emerging markets experiencing decreased political risk exceed those of emerging markets experiencing increased political risk by approximately 11 per quarter in contrast the difference is only 2 5 per quarter for developed markets further the difference between the impact of political risk in emerging and developed markets is statistically significant we also document a global convergence in political risk over the last 10 years political risk has decreased in emerging markets and increased in developed markets if this trend continues the differential impact of political risk in emerging vs developed markets may narrow

political risk and market efficiency tests based in british stock and options markets in the 1987 election abstract this paper examines the behaviour of the stock and options markets in london during the 1987 election we find an extremely close relationship between opinion polls and the ftse 100 index of share prices however in the last week of the election the options prices showed evidence of gross inefficiency they implied a decreasing probability of a conservative win while the polls indicated the opposite the inefficiency was sufficiently large for a volatility arbitrage to be feasible net of transactions costs these two tests appear to indicate that a speculative bubble was present in the options

can sustainability enhance business district attractiveness a survey of corporate property decisions in france this paper analyses the rising importance of sustainable principles in property decisions and its impact on attractiveness for business districts in france a behavioural survey of a large sample of corporate property managers and a multiple correspondence analysis highlight key factors indicating the influence of sustainable principles alongside more traditional determinants of territorial attractiveness this approach enables the drawing up of a typology of companies according to the influence of sustainability issues showing the rise in importance placed on sustainability in location decisions made by listed companies companies that own their head offices and companies located in the main business districts of the paris metropolitan area

do environmental benefits matter evidence from a choice experiment among house owners in germany residential buildings strongly contribute to global co2 emissions due to the high energy demand for electricity and heating particularly in industrialised countries within the eu decentralised heat generation is of particular relevance for future climate policy as its emissions are not covered by the eu ets we conducted a choice experiment concerning energy retrofits for existing houses in germany in the experiment the approximately 400 sampled house owners could either choose a modern heating system or an improved thermal insulation for their home we used standard and mixed logit specifications to analyse the choice data we found environmental benefits to have a significant impact on choices of heating systems however they played no role in terms of insulation choices based on the estimated mixed logit model we further obtained willingness to pay wtp measures for co2 savings

using contingent valuation to explore willingness to pay for renewable energy a comparison of collective and voluntary payment vehicles abstract this study uses a split sample dichotomous choice contingent valuation survey of 1574 u s residents to explore willingness to pay wtp for renewable energy under collective and voluntary payment vehicles and under government and private provision of the good we also evaluate the impact of participation expectations on stated wtp we find some evidence that when confronted with a collective payment mechanism respondents state a somewhat higher wtp than when voluntary payment mechanisms are used similarly private provision of the good elicits a somewhat higher wtp than does government provision we also find that contingent valuation responses are strongly correlated with expectations for the wtp of others our results shed light on strategic response behavior and the incentive compatibility of different cv designs and offer practical insight into u s household preferences for how to support renewable energy

not irrational but habitual the importance of behavioural lock in in energy consumption abstract a substantial body of literature has shown that our behaviour is often guided by habits the existence of habits not fully conscious forms of behaviour is important as it contradicts rational choice theory their presence thus calls for the setting of new instruments as they make it unlikely that consumers be capable of exercising control over their energy consumption in reaction to given incentives this is further increased in the evolutionary perspective where the current carbon based socio technical system constrains and shapes consumers choices through structural forces habits being potentially counterintentional they may explain the efficiency paradox in energy as well as the continued increase of energy consumption despite the rising environmental awareness among the population policies aiming at reducing energy consumption should thus specifically address the performance context of habits for instance targeting new residents has proven to be more effective given that their preceding habits have been disturbed the results of our empirical analysis confirm this idea by showing how a change of context makes people more receptive to a proposed measure our analysis of the role played by habits also suggests that individuals do not consider the need to change existing habits as an obstacle even though this is contradicted implicitly in the answers they provided to open questions this unconsciousness is one of the most delicate features of habits and it should thus be accounted for when designing measures given the other characteristics of habits the joint use of feedbacks and commitment strategies appears promising

ontology policy and the market trends to home ownership in hong kong an important trend in housing delivery internationally has been rising rates of home ownership in hong kong owner occupation has expanded rapidly over the past two decades and this is expected t

paying for mitigation a multiple country study a contingent valuation study conducted in china sweden and the united states was used to investigate citizens willingness to pay wtp for reducing co2 emissions we find that a majority of the respondents in all three countries believe that the mean global temperature has increased over the last 100 years and that humans are responsible for the increase the share of americans that believes these statements is smaller and a relatively larger share of americans also believes that nothing can be done to stop climate change sweden has the highest wtp while china has the lowest jel q51 q54

us consumers willingness to pay for green electricity abstract we analyze us consumers demand for environmental attributes of deregulated residential electricity services using results from a survey designed to elicit consumers willingness to pay for such attributes and using results from a hedonic analysis of actual price premiums charged for green electricity in several deregulated markets survey results suggest that many population segments are willing to pay for decreased air emissions even if there is no alteration in fuel source furthermore several groups are willing to pay significantly more when emissions reductions stem from increased reliance upon renewable fuels the hedonic analysis suggests that several product features not considered in the survey help explain real price premiums including fuel mix from newly created renewable generation capacity green e certification brand name and state of offer while survey and hedonic results are not easily compared due to limitations of the survey both point to similar values for key environmental attributes though the survey results are likely to overstate actual willingness to pay in sum the results suggest that consumer driven purchases can in part support the future of renewable generation capacity in the united states though reliance upon other policy alternatives may be needed if energy prices spike

de jure interstate banking why only now this paper tackles three tasks it reviews the history of restrictions on interstate banking it summarizes the provisions of the interstate banking and branching efficiency act of 1994 underscoring the opt in and opt out lobbying pressure this act assigns to state legislatures finally the paper develops a lobbying pressure model designed to explain statutory changes in the framework of financial regulation the model implies that de facto liberalization of a regulatory regime precedes its de jure liberalization once adopted statutory restrictions on banks remain in place until technology and competitive regulatory enforcement have fashioned loopholes wide enough to reverse the statute sponsoring balance of lobbying pressure copyright 1996 by ohio state university press

the meaning of home ownership in the transition from socialism the example of slovenia the nature of home ownership is contested within housing studies with disagreement over whether it is a natural desire or an unimportant feature of the housing situation this paper sheds some l

output stock volatility and political uncertainty in a natural experiment germany 1880 1940 why does stock volatility increase when output declines the theory of investment under uncertainty implies that political uncertainty may simultaneously increase volatility and reduce output though cause and effect are typically hard to separate the transition from imperial to weimar germany offers a natural experiment because major political events left clear traces on stock prices current and past increases in volatility are associated with output declines consistent with u s experience however political events are more clearly the source of volatility and the results support the view that the relationship between volatility and output ref lects the joint effects of political factors why does stock volatility change over time and why is it higher in recessions though the basic facts are well established huang and kracaw 1984 schwert 1989a romer 1990 pindyck 1991a the causal link between volatility and business slumps is unclear slumps may cause volatility volatility may cause slumps or both may be the consequence of some other more clearly exogenous factor political uncertainty may represent such an exogenous factor consider the great depression in the united states major changes in economic policy occurred in the 1930s and even larger changes were a possibility the highly volatile stock market of the 1930s may very well have ref lected a nonnegligible f luctuating probability that the united states would go socialist the same uncertainty about economic policy may also have caused a slump in business investment and reduced consumer spending though the explanation has appeal political uncertainty was not clearly exogenous a critic could say that higher volatility and the radical nature of policy debate were consequences of the decline in output and the depression itself had other causes as schwert 1989b points out in a more general context we can easily construct links between volatility and the business cycle but causation is hard to pin down this paper looks at stock volatility and output in a case marked by a clear exogenous political shock until the start of world war i in 1914 imperial germany had a stable limited government weimar germany after the war

homeownership in the 1980s and 1990s aggregate trends and racial gaps abstract housing policy under the clinton and bush administrations has sought to boost homeownership while also narrowing racial gaps in owner occupancy rates against that backdrop homeownership rose sharply in the 1990s but white minority gaps remain in excess of 25 percentage points we analyze these patterns using data from the 1983 to 2001 survey of consumer finances results indicate that household characteristics explain most of the increase in homeownership and roughly two thirds of the white minority homeownership gap credit barriers account for no more than 5 percentage points of the remaining gap this suggests that policy makers will need to look beyond innovations in mortgage finance if their goal is to further expand homeownership

political uncertainty and asset valuation evidence from business relocations in canada abstract quebec s drive for sovereignty from canada has been the source of political uncertainty for decades in canada this paper studies empirically stock market s reaction to the announcements of business relocations from the province of quebec to other provinces within canada similar announcements about toronto are used for control empirical results show that the market s reaction to the announcements of business relocations a from quebec is positive b from toronto is negative and c to toronto is positive the difference in abnormal returns between the quebec and toronto samples is positive and significant

the effect of asset and ownership structure on political risk some evidence from mitterrand s election in france abstract previous research suggests that political risk varies considerably from firm to firm yet few empirical tests of the cross sectional variation in political risk exist french assets were massively revalued the day after mitterrand was elected in 1981 providing a unique opportunity to test for the effect of firm specific factors on political risk although foreign ownership tends to increase political risk other factors can reduce it a simple model of political behavior is presented in which politicians value among other things economic growth a foreign firm with significant future growth options is likely to experience less political risk than other foreign firms and under certain circumstances less risk than even other domestic firms tests of these hypotheses are conducted using data from the french and u s capital markets the results are generally consistent with the hypotheses

who actually decides parental influence on the housing tenure choice of their children we focus on the role of within family socialisation and the relationship between socialisation and resource transfers in the intergenerational transmission of housing preferences the formation of

valuing political risk in this paper i develop a model that measures the effects of political risk on the outcome of a foreign direct investment project as the value of an insurance policy that reimburses all losses resulting from the political event or events in question the evolutionary process of political risk is explicitly defined and includes a stochastic element as well as the timing of the political events that trigger losses all parameters can be estimated from current data which eliminates the difficulty of forecasting political events far into the future valued in this way political risk enters the capital budgeting process directly as a cost finally i simulate the model s use for the case of expropriation and the case of a series of losses

how do respondents process stated choice experiments attribute consideration under varying information load the popularity of stated choice sc experiments has produced many design strategies in which researchers use increasingly more complex choice settings to study choice behaviour when the amount of information to assess increases we wonder how an individual handles such information in making a choice defining the amount of information as the number of attributes associated with each choice set we investigate how this information is processed as we vary its complexity four ordered heterogeneous logit models are developed each for an sc design based on a fixed number of attributes in which the dependent variable defines the number of attributes that are ignored we find that the degree to which individuals ignore attributes is influenced by the dimensionality of the sc experiment the deviation of attribute levels from an experienced reference alternative the use of adding up attributes where feasible the number of choice sets evaluated and the personal income of the respondent the empirical evidence supports the view that individuals appear to adopt a range of coping strategies that are consistent with how they process information in real markets and that aligning choice complexity with the amount of information to process is potentially misleading relevancy is what matters copyright 2006 john wiley sons ltd

gains from corporate headquarters relocations evidence from the stock market abstract this paper provides empirical evidence on investors perceptions of the relative advantages and costs of spatial agglomeration specifically we examine the stock price effects of headquarters relocations the stock market reaction is significantly positive when relocation decisions are attributed to cost savings indicating that cost savings available at less centralized locations outweigh any loss of enhancements associated with spatial clustering at urban centers in contrast decisions prompted by managerial self interest and desire for luxurious offices elicit an adverse reaction from investors

sustainable food consumption among young adults in belgium theory of planned behaviour and the role of confidence and values abstract this study investigates determinants of sustainable food consumer behaviour in belgium to gain a better insight in sustainable consumption a study was conducted in which attitudes and behaviour as well as the role of individual characteristics like confidence and values related to sustainable products are analyzed the focus of the analysis is on exploring the influence of determinants as hypothesised by the theory of planned behaviour tpb attitudes perceived behavioural control social norms on sustainable consumption intention in general and specifically depending on consumer s perceived confidence and personal values the empirical research builds on a survey with a sample of 456 young adults using a questionnaire and showing an advertisement for hypothetical sustainable dairy products stepwise multiple regression models showed that 50 of the variance in intention to consume sustainable dairy was explained by the combination of personal attitudes perceived social influences perceived consumer effectiveness and perceived availability in addition different levels of confidence and value orientation yield different strengths of the determinants the findings yield public policy and marketing recommendations for stimulating sustainable food consumption among young adults

currency risk and country risk in international banking this paper focuses on the conditions under which banks are subject to currency and country risks on their dollar denominated loans to foreign firms and governments we conclude that currency risk is a function of the rates of domestic and foreign inflation deviations from purchasing power parity and the effect of these deviations on the firm s and the nation s dollar equivalent cash flows country risk is largely determined by the variability of the nation s terms of trade and the government s willingness to allow the national economy to adjust rapidly to changing economic fortunes banks typically try to cope with currency risk when lending to foreign firms and governments either by both denominating and funding their loans in the foreign currency or failing that by denominating their foreign loans in dollars the latter practice appears to protect the banks by shifting any risk associated with exchange rate fluctuations to the borrowers yet to the extent that changes in currency values affected the ability and or willingness of foreign borrowers to repay their dollar loans the exchange risk on these loans is converted into credit risk this is the element of currency risk referred to in the paper s title when the government is the borrower credit risk becomes country risk the objective of this paper is to explore the conditions under which banks are subject to currency and country risks on their dollar denominated foreign loans section i analyzes the sources of currency risk for firms while section ii extends the analysis to study the riskiness of dollar loans to foreign firms under several currency scenarios the political economic circumstances under which dollar loans to foreign governments could be subject to currency and country risk are the subject of section iii section iv discusses in more detail the various political and economic indicators of country risk section v summarizes the paper s key points

household tenure choice and migration abstract a model of the joint tenure choice and migration decision is estimated unlike previous work that has considered each decision separately or examined the premigration tenure status choice jointly with the migration decision this analysis addresses change in tenure status as well the empirical findings indicate that variables often thought to affect either or both tenure status of the residence location change decision have offsetting or augmenting effects on their joint probabilities which are masked if the decisions are examined independently

willingness to pay for energy saving measures in residential buildings this paper uses a choice experiment to evaluate the consumers willingness to pay for energy saving measures in switzerland s residential buildings these measures include air renewal ventilation systems and insulation of windows and facades two groups of respondents consisting respectively of 163 apartment tenants and 142 house owners were asked to choose between their housing status quo and each one of the several hypothetical situations with different attributes and prices the estimation method is based on a fixed effects logit model the results suggest that the benefits of the energy saving attributes are significantly valued by the consumers these benefits include both individual energy savings and environmental benefits as well as comfort benefits namely thermal comfort air quality and noise protection

information and effort in contingent valuation surveys application to global climate change using national internet samples this contingent valuation study investigates the issues of information access and respondent effort and is based on a series of national internet samples the focus is on a split sample treatment basic information bi versus enhanced information ei in the latter significantly expanded information is provided about global climate change and the kyoto protocol using a referendum format we compare the treatment effect bi versus ei on willingness to pay wtp we develop measures of respondent effort in accessing optional information through the technology of web based surveys and jointly model effort and wtp using a simultaneous estimation approach results support the use of the joint modeling approach for objective measures of respondent effort and wtp respondent effort is shown to be positively and significantly related to wtp however use of the optional menu is rather modest counts of pages and time spent and is highly variable both across pages and respondents

environmental regulation of households an empirical review of economic and psychological factors abstract the literature on sustainable consumption and environmental regulation of household behavior is dominated by conceptual and normative approaches as a result many suggestions lack a firm empirical basis to overcome this deficiency econometric studies in three areas of environmentally relevant activities of households are reviewed residential use of energy generation of solid waste and recycling and residential use of water next to price and income elasticities attention is devoted to individual socio economic features and psychological factors such as attitudes knowledge perceptions and values potential psychological determinants and related insights are further examined by discussing a range of representative and illustrative statistical psychological studies of environmental behavior one important general finding is that there are very few empirical studies that systematically combine socio economic and psychological determinants a range of insights for environmental policy is derived and research recommendations are offered

rural versus urban preferences for renewable energy developments development of renewable energy resources such as wind farms and hydro electric schemes are being promoted as a new method of expanding and diversifying employment in rural areas however such energy projects are associated with a range of environmental impacts which might be detrimental to other economic activities such as those based on nature tourism the authors use a choice experiment to quantify peoples preferences over environmental and employment impacts that may result from the deployment of renewable energy projects in rural areas of scotland focussing in particular on any differences between the preferences of urban and rural dwellers and on heterogeneity within these groups rural and urban households are shown to have different welfare gains which are dependent on the type of renewable energy technology and on the scale of project under consideration

waiting to invest investment and uncertainty the textbook analysis that accepts all projections with positive net present values as positive is quite generally wrong the ability to delay a project means that almost every project competes with itself postponed with uncertain interest rates even the simplest of projects has an option value the effect of interest rate uncertainty on the optimal delay of investment is sizable this implies that the rate of aggregate investment will depend on both the level of the real interest rate and the degree of interest rate uncertainty furthermore it is not necessarily true that investment rises with a fall in interest rates copyright 1992 by university of chicago press

woodfuels livelihoods and policy interventions changing perspectives in the 1970s it appeared that fuelwood use was growing rapidly and this could have major adverse impacts on the resource and poor users by the mid 1980s revised assessments indicated that there was less of a problem than had been foreseen and much less of a need for forestry interventions to maintain supplies as a result many of the latter were sharply scaled back additional information and analysis that has become available since the 1980s support the view that there is no need for large scale interventions devoted just to provision of fuelwood however declining access to supplies or markets can raise significant problems in some areas and for particular categories of user growing urban demand for charcoal can also cause local problems in particular in africa the potentials for appropriate forms of intervention are discussed

intergenerational transmission of homeownership the roles of gifts and continuities in housing market characteristics summary parental homeownership influences the younger generation s housing tenure through parental gifts and similarities in housing market circumstances for example urban rural differences among other mechanisms this paper contributes to the distinguishing of these mechanisms and their relative importance using the netherlands kinship panel study data and logistic regression analysis of housing tenure both gift giving and continuities in housing market characteristics appear to be important mechanisms underlying the intergenerational transmission of homeownership after controlling for these mechanisms and other individual and parental characteristics a strong effect of parents housing tenure on children s housing tenure remains which may be partly attributed to mechanisms such as socialisation

insights into biofuel development in burkina faso potential and strategies for sustainable energy policies abstract in many african countries the upswing in oil prices is one factor that favours the adoption and implementation of a national biofuel policy this trend has a major impact on state budgets and domestic trade balances while also limiting the access of rural inhabitants to modern energy services contribution of biofuels in stabilizing the energy sector influences ongoing negotiations on the global dynamics of climate change the reduction in greenhouse gas ghg emissions and sustainable development the question of biofuels as an alternative energy thus depends on international national and local considerations biofuels represent opportunities e g energy independence and security new national income and employment sources as well as potential food security problems african policy makers therefore need to make the right choices to guide the development of biofuel production and use this article aims to support the development of a biofuel policy by reviewing the latest technical economic environmental and social knowledge so as to be able to evaluate the potential and limits of biofuels in burkina faso

valuing climate protection through willingness to pay for biomass ethanol abstract this study uses a multi part split sample contingent valuation method cvm and fair share fs survey to better understand the public s valuation of mitigating global climate change through its willingness to pay for biomass or cellulosic ethanol in addition to a basic cvm question a related scenario was developed that asked half of the survey respondents to state their fair share cost to lessen a potential food shortage in the next decade also through the expanded use of cellulosic ethanol three alternative biomass feedstocks were assessed farming residues forestry residues and paper mill wastes and municipal solid wastes overall a slightly larger proportion of respondents were wtp extra for cellulosic ethanol in the basic cvm scenario than in the fs scenario though no significant differences were found in the wtp for the different feedstocks bid curve lognormal regression results for the two models were similar supporting the idea that asking a fs rather than a conventional wtp question may be justifiable in some circumstances such as in cases of a national emergency

are biofuels an efficient technology for generating sustainable development in oil dependent african nations a macroeconomic assessment of the opportunities and impacts in burkina faso this paper discusses the opportunity for substituting fossil fuels with biofuels in a sahelian country burkina faso bearing in mind the strong link between energy and development and given the country s heavy reliance on imported fossil fuels our study showed that the overall economy private and public companies and basic social services and the state budget could be seriously affected if no viable and local alternative is integrated into the national energy strategy in view of local potential it is recommended that adequate energy resources be sought in order to ensure sustainable socio economic development biofuel opportunities are discussed taking into account technical agronomic and land potentials in this country diversification of energy resources with biofuels would substantially reduce fuel imports in the short term improve overall public finances provide a chance to develop agriculture and provide benefits for the locals however if they are to generate development biofuel projects need to be mindful of food security and economic incentives and should be part of national agricultural strategies

analysing decision behaviour in stated preference surveys a consumer psychological approach this paper applies a typology adapted from the consumer psychology literature to a contingent valuation method cvm survey we argue that the typology is helpful as a way of identifying responses that contain useful information on preferences for the environmental good in question relative to those which are unlikely to contain such information applying this framework to a cvm study of agri environmental payments in germany we find that some 90 of responses are preference revealing this distribution changes when the framing of the good is changed the typology may be of most use during the design stage of future cvm studies since it enables researchers to increase the fraction of responses that are useful

property in a global risk society towards marketing research in the office sector this paper suggests that the current uncertainty hovering over the property industry is not simply the result of an internal economic dynamic dooming the industry to damaging booms and slumps rather the novel sense of risk colouring contemporary development activities is the consequence of wider cultural technical and commercial shifts from which property development is not immune the current supply oriented interests of property research predominantly concerned with the collection and analysis of statistical data are unable to respond to these wider questions simply creating more data banks will not help the paper argues that in order to understand the shifting nature of demand property research needs to complement econometric modelling with a more occupier focused marketing research one that is sensitive to the dynamics of the risk society we now inhabit accordingly the paper provides a detailed account of structured market research which should form part of a broader property research agenda in particular structured demand analysis is shown to provide a framework for understanding the complex dynamics of the demand market so demonstrating how the supply industry can improve its efficiency the paper suggests that the scale of the latest property crash offers an opportunity for the industry to improve the efficiency of supply by blending intimate knowledge of changing market demand with established dynamics of provision such a research strategy may provide the key to a more stable mutually profitable property business appropriate to a rapidly changing world economy of risk

a hierarchical model of housing choice the main objective of this paper is the construction of an expanded model of housing choice that includes not only tenure choice which has traditionally been the subject of analysis but also other housing characteristic choices in this model the probability of the household making a given tenure choice is estimated at the first level of a choice hierarchy the family s choices over dwelling size and quality are then estimated at succeeding levels of that hierarchy conditionally on the choices which precede them these conditional probabilities can be combined with the probability of tenure choice to produce eight joint probabilities of housing choice in addition for a particular household or group of households we can determine the effect of a change in any of the systems variables on the probability of the families making a given housing choice in the empirical section it is demonstrated that this model provides much greater insight than the conventional tenure choice study regarding the effects o

event studies in economics and finance the event study is an important research tool in economics and finance the goal of an event study is to measure the effects of an economic event on the value of firms event study methods exploit the fact that given rationality in the marketplace the effects of an event will be reflected immediately in security prices thus the impact can be measured by examining security prices surrounding the event in this paper event study methods are described including some of the potential complications an example is included to illustrate the approach

benefits of participating in contingent valuation mail surveys and their effects on respondent behavior a panel analysis abstract we investigated the fringe benefits of participating in contingent valuation mail surveys and their effects on respondents answers a two wave panel survey evaluating japan s anti global warming policies was conducted one sample was randomly assigned to either of two survey treatment groups with different survey loads factor analyses of answers distinguished the survey fringe benefit factor from the environmental concern factor the correlation between the two factors was smaller for the heavy load group than for the light load group estimations of structural equation models showed that survey participation became higher when the survey fringe benefit factor scored higher this tendency was found regardless of the survey load level structural equation models did not confirm a positive correlation between the survey fringe benefit factor and the consistency of wtp answers across survey waves however a logistic regression of the answers from the heavy load group revealed a positive correlation between the consistency of wtp answers and the level of perception of the survey as a good cause which was highly correlated to the fringe benefit factor in the previous factor analyses this positive relationship was not detected for the light load group

assessing the potential demand for biofuel by combining economics and psychology a focus on proximity applied to jatropha oil in africa abstract bio energy demand is known to be influenced by geographical origin and social equity this paper aims to highlight the influence of the proximity between biomass production and energy consumption on the demand for alternative bio fuels in the context of burkina faso we explore potential demand for jatropha oil jatropha curcas as a diesel substitute among engine owners survey data are based on a between groups design one group of respondents experiencing a local supply chain while the other a global one results show that proximity has a significant effect on potential demand itself and on the formation and strength of beliefs regarding jatropha oil in a local supply chain context the demand is superior and seems to be guided more by a certain economic and technical rationality conversely the prospect of a jatropha oil produced outside the village restrains demand and this latter is more determined by contextual factors and social interaction our analysis confirms that demand does not only depend on technical and economic factors such as price but also on the integration of the biomass production and processing in the socioeconomic life of local rural populations understanding demand construction and assessing underlying beliefs are key success factors for bio energy projects