business cycle analysis with a markov switching model this article explores the hamilton markov switching model through an analysis of the business cycles of eight developed market economies forecasting and specification tests suggest only marginal improvements over linear autoregressive models yet filtered and smoothed conditional probabilities indicate turning points in business cycles that closely correlate with turning points from traditional methods tests regarding the asymmetry of business cycles reject the null of symmetry for most countries

energy growth long term relationship under structural breaks evidence from canada 17 latin american economies and the usa abstract we study the relationship and the causal link between electric power consumption epc and gross domestic product gdp both per capita for 17 countries in latin america canada and the usa considering that many of these economies underwent important economic crises in the last three decades we therefore model the epc gdp relationship through a vec specification that allows for structural breaks along with a robust testing methodology of causal links based on the concepts of weak and super exogeneity rather than granger causality evidence favorable to the growth hypothesis epc gdp is found for eight countries while data of three countries support the conservation hypothesis gdp epc for three countries evidence is favorable to the neutrality hypothesis but should be considered with caution as for the remaining five countries the evidence is not conclusive

testing for a u shaped wage curve a response sessions 1993 has written an interesting theoretical note in which he provides a possible analytical justification for a wage curve that is u shaped his idea is to incorporate the stigma of unemployment into the kind of bargaining model set out in blanchflower and oswald 1990 in sessions framework once the unemployment rate becomes sufficiently high and thus individuals believe it is socially acceptable to be without a job unemployment fails to dampen wage pressure we argued in blanchflower and oswald 1990 that the slight evidence there of a u turn in the wage curves for britain and the u s was probably not plausible or empirically convincing the apparent u shape rested on

energy consumption and economic growth an empirical study of the electricity consumption in saudi arabia abstract this study employs the time varying parameters vector autoregressive tvp var model with stochastic volatility to examine inter temporal dynamics between saudi arabian real gdp oil non oil electricity consumption and co2 emissions levels for 1971 2010 the results show that the tvp var model is of use for examining the dynamics of the relationship between electricity consumption real gdp and co2 emissions moreover an analysis of time varying impulse responses of real gdp oil non oil electricity consumption and co2 emissions to structural shocks suggests that responses depend on the magnitude of structural volatilities of real gdp oil non oil electricity consumption and co2 emissions shocks indeed we find that the observed high volatility of electricity consumption in the1970 s and 1980 s is likely to have persistent negative effects on oil gdp levels and co2 emissions and positive effects on real non oil gdp levels the observed high and low volatility of oil gdp levels positively affects electricity consumption and co2 emissions however highly volatile non oil gdp levels are likely to affect electricity consumption and co2 emissions positively these findings imply that energy policies must consider high and low volatility regimes of real gdp electricity and co2 emissions shocks and time varying patterns of the relationships between real gdp electricity consumption and co2 emissions

markov switching causality and the money output relationship the causal link between monetary variables and output is one of the most studied issues in macroeconomics one puzzle from this literature is that the results of causality tests appear to be sensitive with respect to the sample period that one considers as a way of overcoming this difficulty we propose a method for analysing granger causality which is based on a vector autoregressive model with time varying parameters we model parameter time variation so as to reflect changes in granger causality and assume that these changes are stochastic and governed by an unobservable markov chain when applied to us data our methodology allows us to reconcile previous puzzling differences in the outcome of conventional tests for money output causality

the causality relationship between energy consumption and gdp in g 11 countries revisited abstract this paper explores whether energy conservation policies can be implemented in countries with the same level of development that is is restraining energy consumption without compromising economic growth feasible in all industrialized countries a new granger non causality testing procedure developed by toda and yamamoto 1995 journal of econometrics 66 225 250 is applied to re investigate the relationship if any between energy consumption and income in 11 major industrialized countries the results clearly do not support the view that energy consumption and income are neutral with respect to each other except in the case of the united kingdom germany and sweden where a neutral relationship is found bi directional causality in the united states and uni directional running from energy consumption to gdp in canada belgium the netherlands and switzerland are found this indicates that energy conservation may hinder economic growth in the latter five countries further the causality relationship appears to be uni directional but reversed for france italy and japan which implies that in these three countries energy conservation may be viable without being detrimental to economic growth

asymmetric oil shocks and external balances of major oil exporting and importing countries this study investigates the effects of oil price shocks on three measures of oil exporters and oil importers external balances total trade balance oil trade balance and non oil trade balance we employ three second generation heterogeneous linear panel models and one recently developed non linear panel estimation technique that allows for cross sectional dependence with respect to 28 major oil exporting countries an increase in oil prices leads to an improved real oil trade balance although it is detrimental to non oil and total trade balances this finding might be due to the expenditure effect arising from increases in proceeds from oil exports a decrease in oil prices is found to be beneficial for both total and oil trade balances in these oil exporting countries forty major oil importers seem to be increasingly shielded from positive oil shocks over the 1970s and 1980s however they must worry about oil price declines a decline in oil prices has a negative impact on both total and real oil trade balances resulting from increased oil imports in emerging economies hence a decline in oil prices is beneficial to oil exporters due to the quantity effect outweighing the price effect while for oil importers a stable oil price is more desirable than a price decline these results are important to take into account if we are to gain a full understanding on the magnitude of the trade and macroeconomic effects of oil price changes and what the policy responses should be

a literature survey on energy growth nexus abstract this paper provides a survey of the recent progress in the literature of energy consumption economic growth and electricity consumption economic growth causality nexus the survey highlights that most empirical studies focus on either testing the role of energy electricity in stimulating economic growth or examining the direction of causality between these two variables although the positive role of energy on growth has become a stylized fact there are some methodological reservations about the results from these empirical studies a general observation from these studies is that the literature produced conflicting results and there is no consensus neither on the existence nor on the direction of causality between energy consumption electricity consumption and economic growth as a policy implication to avoid from conflicting and unreliable results the authors may use the autoregressive distributed lags bounds test two regime threshold co integration models panel data approach and multivariate models including new variables such as real gross fixed capital formation labor force carbon dioxide emissions population exchange rates interest rates etc thus the authors should focus more on the new approaches and perspectives rather than by employing usual methods based on a set of common variables for different countries and different intervals of time

energy consumption and gdp causality relationship in g 7 countries and emerging markets abstract the causality relationship between energy consumption and income is a well studied topic in energy economics this paper studies the time series properties of energy consumption and gdp and reexamines the causality relationship between the two series in the top 10 emerging markets excluding china due to lack of data and g 7 countries we discover bi directional causality in argentina causality running from gdp to energy consumption in italy and korea and from energy consumption to gdp in turkey france germany and japan hence energy conservation may harm economic growth in the last four countries

economic growth co2 emissions and energy consumption what causes what and where abstract this paper applies panel vector autoregression pvar along with a system generalized method of moment system gmm to examine the dynamic causal relationship between economic growth carbon emissions and energy consumption for 116 countries over the period 1990 2014 using multivariate model the empirical results from this study have established key relationships which have important policy implications first at the global and regional levels economic growth does not cause energy consumption second with the exception of the global and caribbean latin america economic growth has no causal impact on carbon emissions however economic growth has a negative impact on carbon emissions at the global level and the caribbean latin america third carbon emissions positively cause economic growth fourth energy consumption positively causes economic growth in sub saharan africa while it negatively causes economic growth at the global middle east and north africa mena asia pacific and caribbean latin america fifth energy consumption positively causes carbon emissions in mena but causes carbon emissions negatively in sub saharan africa and caribbean latin america lastly with the exception of mena and the global sample carbon emissions do not cause energy consumption the impulse response function shows evidence of environmental kuznets curve at the global scale and sub saharan africa the policy implications of this paper are discussed

the purchasing power parity persistence paradigm abstract rogoff journal of economic literature 1996 34 647 668 describes the remarkable consensus of 3 5 year half lives of purchasing power parity deviations among studies using long horizon data these studies however focus on rejections of unit roots in real exchange rates and do not use appropriate techniques to measure persistence our half life estimates explicitly account for serial correlation sampling uncertainty and most importantly small sample bias calculating confidence intervals as well as point estimates for long horizon and post 1973 data we find that even though most of the point estimates lie within the 3 5 year range univariate methods provide virtually no information regarding the size of the half lives

real wage adjustment and employment policies in the nordic countries nordic employment lars calmfors and ragnar nymoen sweden and norway but also finland have managed to avoid the general western european rise in unemployment the article discusses to what extent this can be explained by a smoothly functioning wage setting system and by active labour market policies the analysis confirms earlier findings of an unusually large responsiveness of wages to unemployment in sweden and norway it is however questionable whether this can be explained by centralized bargaining nor do the authors find any evidence that corporatist tax wage bargains should have contributed to wage restraint the absence of hysteresis effects may be one explanation of why unemployment rises were easily reversed the most controversial finding is that active labour market policies may have strong wage raising effects if so labour market programmes may actually reduce regular employment and even increase open unemployment the authors argue that a reduced rather than an increased emphasis on labour market policies may have been an important factor for real wage restraint especially in sweden this may be an important lesson for those who regard extensive labour market programmes of the swedish type as a blueprint to follow

wage formation in norwegian manufacturing an empirical application of a theoretical bargaining model abstract this paper is concerned with the modelling of quarterly wage inflation in norway we develop a bargaining model which we believe is a sound theoretical base for econometric work in this field among other things the model does not lend support to the practice of imposing phillips curve restrictions on the data without further test a parsimonious model is estimated and is made subject to misspecification tests there is no natural rate of unemployment or nairu in our model any constant unemployment rate is compatible with a constant rate of inflation and a real wage growth equal to the productivity growth however the level of the real wage path will be higher the lower is the rate of unemployment

electrical energy usage over the business cycle causality from macroeconomic conditions to electrical usage overall and in the residential commercial industrial and other sectors is examined the paper shows that changes in macroeconomic conditions cause significant changes in electrical usage in the commercial and industrial sectors and overall in addition the paper shows that causality occurs at business cycle frequencies and that there are asymmetries over the business cycle an implication is that forecasts used to assess the probability of exceeding capacity constraints should incorporate forecasts of macroeconomic conditions asymmetries over the cycle and how the commercial and industrial sectors will respond to such changes

the energy growth nexus in thailand does trade openness boost up energy consumption the nexus between trade openness and energy demand is hot topic of discussion among academicians and researchers and numerous studies are available in existing literature while investigating the nexus between trade openness and energy demand this paper explores the relationship between energy consumption trade openness and economic growth in case of thailand in doing so we have applied bayer and hanck cointegration approach to test whether the long run relationship exists between the variables our results confirm the presence of cointegration between the variables energy consumption stimulates economic growth trade openness adds in economic growth the causality analysis reveals that energy consumption granger causes economic growth and in resulting economic growth granger causes energy consumption trade openness and energy consumption are interdependent i e trade openness granger causes energy consumption and in return energy consumption granger causes trade openness this paper openness up new directions for policy making authorities in thailand to design a comprehensive energy and trade policies to sustain economic growth for long run

the relationship between energy and gnp further results this paper reexamines the casuality between gnp and energy consumption by using updated us data for the period 1947 1979 as a secondary contribution we investigate the causal relationship between energy consumption and employment applying sims technique we find no causal relationship between gnp and energy consumption we find further that there is a slight unidirectional flow running from employment to energy consumption economic interpretations of the empirical results are also presented

topics in the oecd phillips curve how strongly have wages and unemployment been related in oecd countries during the postwar period a simple answer is that on average a one percentage point higher rate of unemployment has been associated with a fall of about one percentage point in the rate of nominal wage increase in the current year compared with the rate of increase a year earlier but such a figure needs interpretation and the aim here is to describe wage behaviour in more detail

the wage curve convexity kinks and composition effects a detailed analysis is provided of the shape of the wage curve using annual time series for norwegian manufacturing the main results are summarized as follows unemployment affects wages significantly and we provide evidence in favour of a monotonically decreasing but highly non linear wage curve the long term unemployed exert less of a wage dampening effect than do recently laid off workers and real wage responsiveness to unemployment seems also to be stronger with higher inflation

inflation dynamics in the u s global but not local mean reversion a stylized fact of u s inflation dynamics is one of extreme persistence and possible unit root behavior if so the implications for macroeconomics and monetary policy are somewhat unpalatable our econometric analysis proposes a parsimonious univariate representation of the inflation process for the last 60 years the nonlinear exponential smooth autoregressive the empirical results confirm a number of the key features such as global stationarity local unit root behavior and lower persistence in the post 1983 period than in the pre 1983 period we compare the forecasting ability of our model with that of competing univariate models and find that the nonlinear model outperforms the linear autoregressive model in the pre 1983 period and the random walk in the post 1983 period at short horizons

a multivariate cointegration analysis of the role of energy in the us macroeconomy abstract this paper extends my previous analysis of the causal relationship of gdp and energy use in the usa in the post war period a majority of the relevant variables are integrated justifying a cointegration analysis the results show that cointegration does occur and that energy input cannot be excluded from the cointegration space the results are plausible in terms of macroeconomic dynamics the results are similar to my previous granger causality results and contradict claims in the literature based on bivariate models that there is no cointegration between energy and output

causal relationship between energy consumption and gdp growth revisited a dynamic panel data approach abstract this paper uses the panel data of energy consumption and gdp for 82 countries from 1972 to 2002 based on the income levels defined by the world bank the data are divided into four categories low income group lower middle income group upper middle income group and high income group we employ the gmm sys approach for the estimation of the panel var model in each of the four groups afterwards the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth is tested and ascertained we discover a in the low income group there exists no causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth b in the middle income groups lower and upper middle income groups economic growth leads energy consumption positively c in the high income group countries economic growth leads energy consumption negatively after further in depth analysis of energy related data the results indicate that in the high income group there is a great environmental improvement as a result of more efficient energy use and reduction in the release of co2 however in the upper middle income group countries after the energy crisis the energy efficiency declines and the release of co2 rises since there is no evidence indicating that energy consumption leads economic growth in any of the four income groups a stronger energy conservation policy should be pursued in all countries

this is what happened to the oil price macroeconomy relationship abstract many of the quarterly oil price increases observed since 1985 are corrections to even bigger oil price decreases the previous quarter when one looks at the net increase in oil prices over the year recent data are consistent with the historical correlation between oil shocks and recessions

insider forces and wage determination this paper investigates the relative importance of firm specific factors i e insider forces in wage determination using firm level data on 219 u k companies over 1974 82 it finds that a 1 percent rise in a firm s prices or productivity relative to the aggregate economy leads to a rise in relative wages of 0 1 0 2 percent as a corollary to this outside factors like the aggregate wage and the unemployment rate also play an important role there is evidence for insider based hysteresis effects but these are inversely related to the extent to which firms take national agreements into account copyright 1990 by royal economic society

dynamics between energy output openness and financial development in sub saharan african countries abstractthis study aims to establish the connection between energy use economic output financial development and trade based on the panel data of 15 sub saharan african ssa countries during the period from 1983 to 2010 one full main panel and two subpanels were created by incorporating low income and middle income countries the panel cointegration test results indicate a long run relationship between the variables the mean group mg estimators show that energy consumption financial development capital and international trade have significant impacts on economic output in the case of middle income countries the granger causality analysis reveals that rising economic output leads to higher energy consumption but this is not true vice versa this means that energy conservation measures are unlikely to have adverse impacts upon economic output on the other hand there is a complementary relationship between financial development and energy consumption in this case energy conservation measures

energy expenditure economic growth and the minimum eroi of society we estimate energy expenditure for the us and world economies from 1850 to 2012 periods of high energy expenditure relative to gdp from 1850 to 1945 or spikes 1973 74 and 1978 79 are associated with low economic growth rates and periods of low or falling energy expenditure are associated with high and rising economic growth rates e g 1945 1973 over the period 1960 2010 for which we have continuous year to year data for control variables capital formation population and unemployment rate we estimate that statistically in order to enjoy positive growth the us economy cannot afford to spend more than 11 of its gdp on energy given the current energy intensity of the us economy this translates in a minimum societal eroi of approximately 11 1 or a maximum tolerable average price of energy of twice the current level granger tests consistently reveal a one way causality running from the level of energy expenditure as a fraction of gdp to economic growth in the us between 1960 and 2010 a coherent economic policy should be founded on improving net energy efficiency this would yield a double dividend increased societal eroi through decreased energy intensity of capital investment and decreased sensitivity to energy price volatility

the rise in unemployment a multi country study one of the most remarkable features of recent economic history has been the remorseless rise in unemployment throughout the industrialized countries however while the trend to higher unemployment is universal the experience of individual countries also differs widely the increase is especially marked within the european community where unemployment rates rival those reached in the interwar years by contrast in the scandinavian countries and japan unemployment is lower and has risen very much less experience in the united states lies somewhere between these extremes and in the last few years unemployment there has fallen sharply

economic growth and energy consumption revisited evidence from linear and nonlinear granger causality the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth is considered as an imperative issue in energy economics previous studies have ignored the nonlinear behavior which could be caused by structural breaks in this study both linear and nonlinear granger causality tests are applied to examine the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth for a sample of asian newly industrialized countries as well as the u s this study finds evidence supporting a neutrality hypothesis for the united states thailand and south korea however empirical evidence on philippines and singapore reveals a unidirectional causality running from economic growth to energy consumption while energy consumption may have affected economic growth for taiwan hong kong malaysia and indonesia policy implications are also discussed

aggregation unit roots and the time series structure of manufacturing real wages the effects of both temporal and cross sectional aggregation on the estimated time series characteristics of manufacturing real wage data are examined the effects especially of temporal aggregation are found to be quite large and in accord with statistical theory the well known results of j altonji and o ashenfelter 1980 that real wages are a random walk and of c r nelson and c i plosser 1982 that real wages are an ima 1 1 process both seem to be entirely artifacts of temporal aggregation with the true models following processes that are much more complex and that display substantial cyclical behavior copyright 1992 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

the causal link between energy and output growth evidence from markov switching granger causality abstract in this paper we empirically investigate the causal link between energy consumption and economic growth employing a markov switching granger causality analysis we carry out our investigation using annual u s real gdp total final energy consumption and total primary energy consumption data which cover the period between 1968 and 2010 we find that there are significant changes in the causal relation between energy consumption and economic growth over the sample period under investigation our results show that total final energy consumption and total primary energy consumption have significant predictive content for real economic activity in the u s economy furthermore the causality running from energy consumption to output growth seems to be strongly apparent particularly during the periods of economic downturn and energy crisis we also document that output growth has predictive power in explaining total energy consumption furthermore the power of output growth in predicting total energy consumption is found to diminish after the mid of 1980s

energy income causality in oecd countries revisited the key role of capital stock abstract this paper applies a recent advance in panel analysis to estimate the panel cointegration and panel vector error correction models for a set of 22 oecd countries using annual data covering the period 1960 2001 we investigate the relationship between energy consumption and income using an aggregate production function and controlling for the capital stock as well as by exploring the dynamic directions of the causality among these three variables we firstly obtain solid and convincing evidence of a fairly strong long run equilibrium relationship among them secondly it is found that the capital stock is much more productive than energy consumption third it is observed that neglecting the impact of the capital stock on income tends to overestimate the effect of energy consumption finally the panel causality test shows bi directional causal linkages exist among energy consumption the capital stock and economic growth overall the findings reveal that the capital stock plays a critical role in realizing the dynamic relationship between energy and income

energy consumption and economic growth in the usa evidence from renewable energy abstract recent debates about renewable energy consumption manifest two main expectations firstly renewable energy consumption should contribute to economic growth and secondly it should not cause damage on environment this study focuses on the first issue by applying toda yamamoto procedure and bootstrap corrected causality test for the us since empirical literature criticizes the toda yamamoto test which bases on asymptotic distribution the models consist of real gdp employment investment and kinds of renewable energy consumption only one causal relationship was found from biomass waste derived energy consumption to real gdp no causal relationship was found between real gdp and all of the other renewable energy kinds total renewable energy consumption geothermal energy consumption hydro electric energy consumption biomass energy consumption and biomass wood derived energy consumption that is using of energy from waste cause not only solving the dumping problems but also it contributes to real gdp for policy purpose the results of this study suggest that countries should concentrate on energy producing from waste as an alternative energy resource

energy consumption income and carbon emissions in the united states abstract this paper investigates the effect of energy consumption and output on carbon emissions in the united states earlier research focused on testing the existence and or shape of an environmental kuznets curve without taking energy consumption into account we investigate the granger causality relationship between income energy consumption and carbon emissions including labor and gross fixed capital formation in the model we find that income does not granger cause carbon emissions in the us in the long run but energy use does hence income growth by itself may not become a solution to environmental problems

an exposition on the nature of the wage curve the relationship between unemployment and pay has recently been encapsulated in terms of a wage curve whereby increasing unemployment acts to curb the general level of pay see blanchflower and oswald 1990 hereafter bo results from bo and elsewhere allude to the possibility of an upturn in the curve with the level of pay tending to rise as unemployment passes some critical rate bo attribute the upturn observed in their study to a data aberration claiming that such a finding appears to go against commensense the shape of the wage curve has important policy implications and although the empirical evidence for an upturn is relatively weak such a possibility should not be dismissed a priori the aim of this note is to stimulate further research into the nature of the wage curve by deriving sufficient conditions for an upturn from a formal model the idea is to supplement the standard neo classical model of the wage curve with behavioural assumptions drawn from the social psychology literature 2 the note concentrates in particular on the concept of status workers are assumed to be primarily but not exclusively concerned with the monetary rewards to an occupation the status associated with a particular occupation plays a significant role in their decision making

on the relationship between inflation persistence and temporal aggregation this paper examines the impact of temporal aggregation on alternative definitions of inflation persistence using the cpi and the core pce deflator of the united states our results show that temporal aggregation from the monthly to the quarterly to the annual frequency induces persistence in the inflation series

oil and the macroeconomy when prices go up and down an extension of hamilton s results in an important paper hamilton 1983 demonstrated a strong correlation between oil price changes and gross national product growth in u s data however his study pertained to a period in which all the large oil price movements were upward and thus it left unanswered the question whether the correlation persists in periods of price decline moreover the price variable he used was somewhat distorted by price controls in the 1970s this note investigates whether hamilton s results continue to hold when the sample is extended to include the recent oil market collapse and the oil price variable is corrected for the effects of price controls particular attention is given to the possibility of asymmetric responses to oil price increases and decreases as suggested in the structural employment literature loungani 1986 davis 1987 hamilton 1988 like hamilton i based my investigation on the gnp equation in sims s 1 980b six variable quarterly vector autoregressive model