baseline value specification and sensitivity analysis in multiattribute project portfolio selection abstract a key issue in applying multi attribute project portfolio models is specifying the baseline value a parameter which defines how valuable not implementing a project is relative to the range of possible project values in this paper we present novel baseline value specification techniques which admit incomplete preference statements and unlike existing techniques make it possible to model problems where the decision maker would prefer to implement a project with the least preferred performance level in each attribute furthermore we develop computational methods for identifying the optimal portfolios and the value to cost based project rankings for all baseline values we also show how these results can be used to i analyze how sensitive project and portfolio decision recommendations are to variations in the baseline value and ii provide project decision recommendations in a situation where only incomplete information about the baseline value is available

excess burden and the marginal cost of public spending abstract the relationship between excess burden of taxation and the shadow price of public expenditure is explored an equality is established between compensated and uncompensated versions of the marginal social costs of taxation

redistributing income and relative efficiency i introduction the welfare costs associated with a demo grant reform and with spending on a publicly provided good have been extensively investigated as in browning and johnson 1984 stuart 1984 and ballard 1988 the welfare cost of marginal spending on earnings or wage subsidies has received less attention even though as scholz 1996 reports the income subsidy rate of the earned income tax credit eitc has increased from 10 to 40 in the past 20 years 1 triest 1994 and browning 1995 are two articles that analyze the welfare gains and losses associated with reforms to the eitc triest concludes that the eitc is a relatively efficient way to redistribute income whereas browning suggests considering alternative methods of assisting the working poor this article calculates the welfare gains and losses for marginal reforms to three different policies designed to redistribute income increased spending on an earnings subsidy program as defined by the eitc is compared with the effects of higher spending on means tested cash transfers to low income households a negative income tax nit an nit is used to represent welfare policies because hoffman and siedman 1990 suggest that programs such as aid to families with dependent children afdc have properties similar to an nit reforms to the nit and eitc are compared to the effects of increasing the subsidy rate of a wage subsidy or a negative wage tax as defined by browning 1973 understanding the normative effects of an earnings subsidy are important because the eitc has grown and it is now larger than the food stamp program although the eitc is best known as an earnings subsidy it actually has three phases for a household with one child in 1997 labor income up to 6 500 is subsidized at a rate of 34 households receive the subsidy in the form of a refundable tax credit and the household receives a check from the government if their credit exceeds their tax liability for income between 6 500 and 11 930 households receive the maximum tax credit but for earnings above 11 930 the tax credit diminishes 15 98 cents for every dollar earned according to rosen 1999 over 70 of those receiving a tax credit are in the last two phases of the program for these households the credit takes the form of a cash transfer and for most it is a means tested transfer unlike traditional assistance to the poor the eitc only provides assistance to those employed a priori one might expect a subsidy on labor earnings to be more efficient than an nit at redistributing income to the working poor this view is consistent with the survey results of fuchs et al 1998 who find that economists do not generally support increased funding of programs such as afdc however if the eitc is just an nit for most households it services it is not obvious that the eitc is more efficient at marginally redistributing income to the poor steuerle 1990 envisioned that effort would be made to convert the tax credit system to an hourly wage subsidy more recently browning 1995 suggested that a negative wage tax nwt be considered instead of the eitc an nwt like that proposed by browning 1973 1995 involves subsidizing the difference between a target wage rate and a household s actual wage rate and it does not have a cash transfer or the high positive implicit marginal tax rates mtrs associated with most redistributive programs browning 1973 demonstrates that a wage subsidy is more efficient that an nit but less is known about the relative efficiency of an nwt and the eitc traditional welfare programs such as afdc and food stamps provide most of their benefits to those who receive no labor income whereas wage and income subsidies only aid those employed how does one compare redistributive programs that serve different populations to address this question two different sets of reforms are considered

progressive taxation and the social marginal cost of public funds abstract this paper describes the calculation of the social marginal cost of public funds smcf for a progressive tax system which distorts individuals labour supply decisions a formula for the smcf indicates that the income and substitution effects of the labour supply response are weighted by the changes in individuals average and marginal tax rates respectively other well known formulas for the smcf are shown to be special cases of this formula the difference between this formula and the mayshar 1991 formula is shown to be due to different but equally valid ways of computing the change in the average tax rate the condition under which a marginal tax rate increase may lead to a reduction in revenues is derived

welfare analysis of tax reforms using household data abstract this paper discusses a methodology for calculating the distribution of gains and losses from a policy change using data for a large sample of households estimates are based on the equivalent income function which is money metric utility defined over observable variables this enables calculations to be standardised and a computer program to compute the statistics presented in the paper is available for a general demand system equivalent income is related to measures of deadweight loss and standard errors are computed for each of the welfare measures an application to u k data for 5 895 households is given which simulates a reform that involves eliminating housing subsidies

marginal welfare costs of taxation with human and physical capital i introduction marginal welfare cost of taxation is the amount by which the social cost of an additional tax dollar differs from 1 because of distortionary taxation browning and johnson 1984 stuart 1984 browning 1987 ballard 1988 and allgood and snow 1998 use static models of the u s economy in which labor supplies adjust but the stocks of human and physical capital are fixed to calculate estimates of this welfare cost relevant to cost benefit analysis the studies by lucas 1990 and perroni 1995 incorporate human and physical capital into calculations of excess burden for the purpose of comparing alternative tax systems but do not address the welfare costs of marginal tax and spending reforms ballard et al 1985 and judd 1987 provide estimates of welfare cost using models that allow the stock of physical capital to change in response to marginal reforms but the stock of human capital is exogenous in these studies however judd 2001 argues that there is ample evidence indicating that human capital investment decisions have a significant effect on the cost of altering the tax system which suggests that these decisions could also have an important influence on marginal welfare cost in this article we present estimates of welfare costs for marginal reforms to government tax and spending policies when labor supply saving and education decisions are all endogenous we focus our analysis on marginal reforms because as skinner and slemrod 1985 observe most policy reforms enacted do not involve replacing one tax or spending system with another but instead typically entail marginal adjustments in tax laws and government appropriations using a perfect foresight overlapping generations model with a three period life cycle we derive analytical expressions for the changes in labor supply saving and education and use them to calculate marginal welfare cost as shown by auerbach et al 1983 in overlapping generations models steady state welfare comparisons of alternative tax policies are biased unless households are compensated for intergenerational redistribution along the transition path to arrive at our steady state estimates of welfare costs we adapt the compensation method introduced by gravelle 1991 for analyzing fundamental tax reforms to the context of incremental tax and spending reforms in a static one consumer model triest 1990 has shown that marginal welfare cost mwc is positive solely because of tax leakage the decline in tax revenue caused by reductions in the tax base we extend this insight to an intertemporal context that incorporates tax leakage arising from changes in both human and physical capital investment we evaluate three sets of reforms first a revenue neutral reduction in the tax on capital income funded by a higher tax on labor income second spending on a public good financed by either a higher tax on labor or interest income third a per capita lump sum transfer or demogrant also funded by either a higher tax on labor or interest income we find that marginal welfare costs are uniformly lower in the dynamic model where investment decisions are endogenous than in the static model where investment decisions are fixed and that the majority of the difference between the dynamic and static estimates is attributable to human capital decisions the principal reason is that a reallocation of time between labor hours and human capital investment has opposing and potentially offsetting effects on effective labor supply as a result labor supply responds less elastically in the dynamic model and changes in labor supply are the main source of tax leakage because wage taxation is the main source of tax revenue we also find that shifting marginal financing from capital to labor results in a lower welfare cost the reason being that such a change encourages saving which increases wage rates and stimulates labor supply leading to a reduction in marginal welfare costs

modeling project preferences in multiattribute portfolio decision analysis abstract when choosing a portfolio of projects with a multi attribute weighting model it is necessary to elicit trade off statements about how important these attributes are relative to each other such statements correspond to weight constraints and thus impact on which project portfolios are potentially optimal or non dominated in view of the resulting set of feasible attribute weights in this paper we extend earlier preference elicitation approaches by allowing the decision maker to make direct statements about the selection and rejection of individual projects we convert such project preference statements to weight information by determining the weights for which i the selected project is included in all potentially optimal or non dominated portfolios or ii the rejected project is not included in any potentially optimal or non dominated portfolio we prove that the two complementary selection rules will exclude exactly the same set of weights however analyses that apply the dominance structure often lead to multiple mutually exclusive feasible weight sets and therefore the approach based on potential optimality is more relevant for practical decision analysis we also propose ex ante value of information measures to guide the elicitation of project preference statements and illustrate our results by analyzing a real case on the selection of infrastructure maintenance projects

the relationship between the marginal cost of public funds and marginal excess burden a large literature has recently developed which attempts to measure the marginal cost shadow price of public funds the motivation for much of this literature is the recognition that many of the tax instruments used by governments generate substantial amounts of excess burden deadweight loss jerry a hausman 1981 for example estimates that for an average prime aged american male with a wage of ten dollars in 1975 the excess burden generated by the federal income tax was over fifty percent of the revenue raised from taxing that individual one might suspect that such large excess burden estimates would require a change in the way government project costs are calculated in benefit cost analysis if the revenue required to finance a project is raised through distortionary taxation then intuition would suggest that the excess burden generated by the increase in tax rates needed to finance the project should be incorporated into the cost of the project however this analysis is not entirely consistent with the theoretical literature on the optimal provision of public goods which are financed by distortionary taxation when distortionary taxes are used to finance public goods and the level of public good provision does not affect consumption of the taxed goods the standard samuelsonian rule which equates the sum over consumers of the marginal rates of substitution between a private good and a public good with the marginal rate of transformation between the two goods must be modified to account for the marginal effect of increases in tax rates on the revenue raised from the existing taxes 2 the intuition behind this result is that we need to correct for indirect leakages from existing government revenue sources when considering an incremental expenditure if the increase in tax rates needed to finance the project causes a reduction in the revenue raised by the current tax structure then we need to account for this loss in calculating the cost of the project it is important to note that this result concerns the values of uncompensated demand elasticities an example first provided by atkinson and stern 1974 illustrates this point consider a world where the only tax is on labor earnings and incremental expenditure on the public good does not affect the demand for leisure in this case the marginal rate of transformation will overstate the cost of the public good as long as the uncompensated wage elasticity of labor supply is negative this is because an increase in the tax rate causes an increase in labor supply leading to an indirect increase in government revenue from the excess burden perspective described earlier this example is very puzzling it is well known that even if the uncompensated own price elasticity of a good is zero a tax on that good can still result in a large deadweight loss we instead need the compensated elasticity to be zero to ensure that there will be no excess burden however the department of economics university of california davis ca 95616 this paper is based on chapter two of my dissertation at the university of wisconsin madison i wish to thank the members of my dissertation committee martin david robert haveman chair and arthur goldberger for very helpful advice and comments i have also benefited from comments by don fullerton and bruce hamilton an anonymous referee provided unusually helpful comments and corrected an error in the figure 1don fullerton 1989 provides a recent survey and analysis of this literature 2this is shown by anthony atkinson and nicholas h stern 1974 and david e wildasin 1979 the effect of provision of the public good on consumption of the taxed goods must also generally be taken into account

on the marginal welfare cost of taxation this paper develops a rigorous partial equilibrium analysis of the determinants of margin al welfare cost mwc of taxes on labor earnings it shows that four key parameters interact to determine the magnitude of mwc using aggregate data and plausible ranges of values for the parameters mwc can vary from under 10 percent to more than 300 percent of marginal tax revenue intermediate parameter values sugge st mwc is in the 25 50 percent range however the more extreme estimates cannot be ruled out on the basis of available evidence suggesting that mwc cannot yet be copyright 1987 by american economic association

structuring resource allocation decisions a framework for building multi criteria portfolio models with area grouped options multi criteria portfolio modelling has been extensively employed as an effective means to allocate scarce resources for investment in projects when considering costs benefits and risks some of these modelling approaches allow the grouping of projects into organisational areas thus also supporting the decision of resource allocation among organisational units in a way that is collectively efficient for the organisation however structuring in practice a portfolio model using this latter type of approach is not a trivial task how should areas be defined where should new projects be included how should one define the criteria to evaluate performance as far as we know there is very little indication in the operational research and decision sciences literatures on how to structure this type of model this paper suggests different ways to structuring portfolio models where projects are divided into areas and evaluated by multiple criteria and illustrates their use in two action research projects drawing on these experiences it then suggests a general framework for the structuring of such models in practice directions for future research are also identified

preference programming for robust portfolio modeling and project selection in decision analysis difficulties of obtaining complete information about model parameters make it advisable to seek robust solutions that perform reasonably well across the full range of feasible parameter values in this paper we develop the robust portfolio modeling rpm methodology which extends preference programming methods into portfolio problems where a subset of project proposals are funded in view of multiple evaluation criteria we also develop an algorithm for computing all non dominated portfolios subject to incomplete information about criterion weights and project specific performance levels based on these portfolios we propose a project level index to convey i which projects are robust choices in the sense that they would be recommended even if further information were to be obtained and ii how continued activities in preference elicitation should be focused the rpm methodology is illustrated with an application using real data on road pavement projects

scenario based portfolio selection of investment projects with incomplete probability and utility information abstract in the selection of investment projects it is important to account for exogenous uncertainties such as macroeconomic developments which may impact the performance of projects these uncertainties can be addressed by examining how the projects perform across several scenarios but it may be difficult to assign well founded probabilities to such scenarios or to characterize the decision makers risk preferences through a uniquely defined utility function motivated by these considerations we develop a portfolio selection framework which i uses set inclusion to capture incomplete information about scenario probabilities and utility functions ii identifies all the non dominated project portfolios in view of this information and iii offers decision support for rejection and selection of projects the proposed framework enables interactive decision support processes where the implications of additional probability and utility information or further risk constraints are shown in terms of corresponding decision recommendations

optimal strategies for selecting project portfolios using uncertain value estimates abstract practically all organizations seek to create value by selecting and executing portfolios of actions that consume resources typically the resulting value is uncertain and thus organizations must take decisions based on ex ante estimates about what this future value will be in this paper we show that the bayesian modeling of uncertainties in this selection problem serves to i increase the expected future value of the selected portfolio ii raise the expected number of selected actions that belong to the optimal portfolio ex post and iii eliminate the expected gap between the realized ex post portfolio value and the estimated ex ante portfolio value we also propose a new project performance measure defined as the probability that a given action belongs to the optimal portfolio finally we provide analytic results to determine which actions should be re evaluated to obtain more accurate value estimates before portfolio selection in particular we show that the optimal targeting of such re evaluations can yield a much higher portfolio value in return for the total resources that are spent on the execution of actions and the acquisition of value estimates

value data and the bennet price and quantity indicators abstract we derive value based bennet indicators expressed in terms of revenues and expenditures values and relative prices rather than prices and quantities we then show how relative price information is recoverable from value data when agents are rational

consumers surplus as an exact and superlative cardinal welfare indicator this article shows that the bennet bowley consumer surplus measure is an exact measure of allais disposable surplus if the consumer s utility function is of the translation homothetic generalized quadratic form the bennet bowley consumer surplus measure therefore is a superlative cardinal welfare measure for the entire class of translation homothetic preferences because the exactness results in this article apply for cardinal welfare measures they can be meaningfully aggregated across consumers to make aggregate welfare comparisons

imperfect competition the marginal cost of public funds and public goods supply abstract this paper analyses the impact of changes in product market competition on the marginal cost of public funds mcpf and public goods supply when distortionary commodity taxes are used to raise revenue first less competition measured by a switch from bertrand to cournot conduct or a decrease in the elasticity of demand does not necessarily raise the mpcf second even if it does optimal public good supply does not necessarily fall the paper also presents a method for modelling bertrand and cournot competition in general equilibrium that may be of independent interest

dual approaches to the analysis of risk aversion we present a dual formulation of choice under uncertainty based on a few simple assumptions about preferences it is shown that the additive separability restriction on preferences key to expected utility theory can be dropped with little loss of analytic power for a broad class of choice problems dual risk premiums are characterized and it is shown that placing various invariance restrictions on them leads naturally to generalizations of the concepts of cara crra and lrt familiar from expected utility theory each of these generalizations conforms to a notion of homotheticity

optimal dynamic carbon taxes in a climate economy model with distortionary fiscal policy how should carbon be taxed as a part of fiscal policy the literature on optimal carbon pricing often abstracts from other taxes however when governments raise revenues with distortionary taxes carbon levies have fiscal impacts while they raise revenues directly they may shrink the bases of other taxes e g by decreasing employment this article theoretically characterizes and then quantifies optimal carbon taxes in a dynamic general equilibrium climate economy model with distortionary fiscal policy first this article establishes a novel theoretical relationship between the optimal taxation of carbon and of capital income this link arises because carbon emissions destroy natural capital they accumulate in the atmosphere and decrease future output consequently this article shows how the standard logic against capital income taxes extends to distortions on environmental capital investments second this article characterizes optimal climate policy in sub optimal fiscal settings where income taxes are constrained to remain at their observed levels third this article presents a detailed calibration that builds on the seminal dice approach but adds features essential for a setting with distortionary taxes such as a differentiation between climate change production impacts e g on agriculture and direct utility impacts e g on biodiversity existence value the central quantitative finding is that optimal carbon tax schedules are 8 24 lower when there are distortionary taxes compared to the setting with lump sum taxes considered in the literature

selecting a portfolio of solar energy projects using multiattribute preference theory this article reports a procedure developed to assist the u s department of energy in selecting a portfolio of solar energy applications experiments the procedure has also been used in other government procurements and appears to be applicable in a variety of project funding processes the technical quality of each proposed applications experiment was summarized through the use of multiple evaluation measures or attributes these were combined into a single index of the overall technical quality of an experiment through the use of a multiattribute utility function recently derived results in measurable value theory were applied to derive an index of the overall technical quality of a portfolio of experiments budgetary and programmatic issues were handled through the use of constraints this approach allowed the portfolio selection problem to be formulated as an integer linear program details of the application are presented including a discussion of the data requirements and assessment procedure used the portfolio selection procedure was successfully applied and variations of it have been successfully used in four other solar energy procurements

on the consumer value of complementarity a benefit function approach the article develops a conceptual model of the consumer value of complementarity and illustrates its usefulness in an application to fisheries complementarity arises when some goods have a positive effect on the marginal value of other goods we propose a measurement of the value of complementarity based on the benefit function our econometric analysis of fish consumption in italy examines these issues with special attention given to dynamics our results show that while short run fish demand is characterized by substitution relationships complementarity does develop in the intermediate run and in the long run copyright 2007 oxford university press

adjustable robustness for multi attribute project portfolio selection abstract robust portfolio modeling rpm supports multi attribute project portfolio selection with uncertain project scores and decision maker preferences by determining non dominated portfolios for all possible realizations of uncertain parameters decision recommendations produced by rpm may prove too conservative for real life decision problems we develop a methodology to reduce the set of possible realizations by limiting the number of project scores that may simultaneously deviate from their most likely value by adjusting this limit decision makers can choose desired levels of conservatism our approach also allows to capture dependencies among project scores as well as uncertainty in portfolio constraints

measurement issues in the evaluation of projects in a project portfolio abstract a common problem arising in many domains is how value the benefits of projects in a project portfolio recently there has been some attention given to a decision analysis practice whereby analysts define a value function on some criterion by setting 0 as the value of the worst project in particular clemen and smith have argued this practice is not sound as it gives different results from the case where projects are priced out and makes a strong implicit assumption about the value of not doing a project in this paper we underscore the criticism of this way of using value functions by showing it can lead to a rank reversal we provide a measurement theoretic account of the phenomenon showing that the problem arises from using evaluating projects on an interval scale such as a value scale whereas to guard against such rank reversals benefits must be measured on at least a ratio scale seen from this perspective we discuss how the solution proposed by clemen and smith of reformulating the underlying optimisation problem to allow for explicitly non zero values addresses the issue and explore in what sense it may be open to similar problems in closing we discuss what lessons from practice may be drawn from this analysis focussing on settings where the clemen and smith proposal may not be the most natural way of modelling

fiscal capacity tax effort and optimal equalization grants in this paper we address the question how should the tax burden in a feder ation be distributed across the different jurisdictions so that the social cost of providing government services is minimized using optimal tax theory we derive formulas for the optimal equalization grants that equalize the social marginal cost of raising revenue across all provinces we show how the optimal equalization grants are related to a measure of tax effort based on the marginal cost of public funds and a measure of fiscal capacity that takes into account the elasticity of the tax base and its substitutability with other tax bases

linear risk tolerant invariant risk preferences this note identifies the class of preferences which simultaneously satisfy invariance two fund portfolio separation and linear risk tolerance it also considers the implications for asset demand and asset pricing of this class of preferences c 2004 elsevier b v all rights reserved

selecting a portfolio of nonhomogeneous r d proposals abstract this article reports a procedure developed to assist the u s department of energy in the selection of a portfolio of proposals addressing the design and manufacture of components of solar photovoltaic arrays and complete photovoltaic systems considerations such as the relative importance of the different components in the overall effort compatibility of the proposed designs and budgetary and programmatic issues were complicating factors the technical quality of each proposal was represented by multiple evaluation measures these were combined into a single index through the use of multi attributeutility function indices representing the relative importance of the various components were then developed and results in measurable value theory were applied to derive an index of technical quality of a portfolio of proposals the problem was then formulated as an integer program it was solved by using an interactive branch and bound code that allowed for sensitivity analysis before selecting the portfolio of proposals for funding the procedure was successfully applied to funding a portfolio of proposals aimed at reducing the cost of producing photovoltaic arrays and to several other government sponsored procurements

the role of energy productivity in u s agriculture abstract this paper investigates the role of energy on u s agricultural productivity using panel data at the state level for the period 1960 2004 we first provide a historical account of energy use in u s agriculture to do this we rely on the bennet cost indicator to study how the price and volume components of energy costs have developed over time we then proceed to analyze the contribution of energy to productivity in u s agriculture employing the bennet bowley productivity indicator an important feature of the bennet bowley indicator is its direct association with the change in normalized profits thus our study is also able to analyze the link between profitability and productivity panel regression estimates indicate that energy prices have a negative effect on profitability in the u s agricultural sector we also find that energy productivity has generally remained below total farm productivity following the 1973 1974 global energy crisis