capital management in mutual financial institutions abstract capital management by mutual financial institutions such as credit unions provides a valuable testing ground for assessing the impact of capital regulation and theories of managerial behaviour in financial institutions limited access to external equity capital means that capital accumulation must be met primarily by reliance on retained earnings to deal with shocks to the capital position and avoid breaching regulatory requirements managers will aim to have a buffer of capital in excess of the regulatory minimum moreover mutual governance arrangements and an absence of capital market discipline mean that managers have discretion to set target capital ratios which differ significantly from industry averages this paper develops a formal model of capital management and risk management in mutual financial institutions such as credit unions which reflects these industry characteristics the model is tested using data from larger credit unions in australia which have been subject to the basel accord risk weighted capital requirements since 1993 the data supports the hypothesis that credit unions manage their capital position by setting a short term target profit rate return on assets which is positively related to asset growth and which is aimed at gradually removing discrepancies between the actual and desired capital ratio desired capital ratios vary significantly across credit unions there is little evidence of short run adjustments to the risk of the asset portfolio to achieve a desired capital position

detecting abnormal credit union performance abstract credit unions are an important financial intermediary but little credit union research is done a primary reason for the lack of research is the cooperative nature of the industry making traditional methods of detecting abnormal performance inappropriate this paper proposes two methods of detecting abnormal performance one parametric the other non parametric instead of testing the efficiency of the institution this paper proposes testing the return vector as indicated in the theoretical objective function of the member simulations demonstrate that both methods are correctly specified and powerful

income diversification and risk does ownership matter an empirical examination of indian banks abstract we examine the impact of ownership on income diversification and risk for indian banks over the period 2001 2009 we investigate both the determinants of non interest income and the impact of diversification on various profitability and insolvency risk measures for public sector private domestic and foreign banks we document that ownership does matter in the pursuit of non interest income relative to private domestic banks public sector banks earn significantly less fee income while foreign banks report higher fee income public sector banks with higher levels of governmental ownership are significantly less likely to pursue non interest income sources fee based income significantly reduces risk measured by profitability variables for public sector banks default risk is also reduced for these banks from a regulatory perspective it appears that diversification benefits india s public sector banks our research has implications for the changes in the risk profile for banks in emerging banking markets pursuing non interest revenue sources

what is the effect of unconventional monetary policy on bank performance this paper examines the relationship between unconventional monetary policy and the us banking performance unconventional monetary policy is captured through the central bank s assets and excess reserves results show that unconventional monetary policy has a negative relationship with bank performance further analysis shows that the negative association between unconventional monetary policy and performance is mitigated for banks with a high level of asset diversification and low deposit funding we also find that the negative relationship between unconventional monetary policy and performance subdues for deposit insured financial institutions finally we use dynamic panel threshold analysis which reveals that the negative association between unconventional monetary policy and bank performance is particularly pronounced above the reported threshold value

the policy impact of new rules for loan participation on credit union returns abstract in recent years credit unions have increasingly purchased loan participation agreements in order to diversify their loan portfolios and manage loan growth responding to high charge off rates for these loans and concern for systemic risk the national credit union administration imposed in 2013 new rules on federally insured credit unions that limited the purchase of loan participations from a single originator to the greater of 5 million or 100 of net worth this study uses a difference in difference framework to examine the effect the policy had on returns as a result of the policy change credit unions with a high share of net worth in loan participations earned on average a return on assets 47 basis points less than their counterparts further we find evidence that suggests these lower returns were driven by a decline in participation loans with recourse provisions liquidity issues and relatively higher interest expenses

what drives bank securitisation the spanish experience abstract this paper analyses the reasons why spanish banks securitised in the period 2000 2007 on such a large scale that spain has become the european country with the second largest issuance volume after the uk the results obtained by applying a logistic regression model to a sample of 408 observations indicate that liquidity and the search for improved performance are the decisive factors in securitisation we find no evidence to support hypotheses regarding credit risk transfer and regulatory capital arbitrage our study also presents a more detailed analysis that differentiates between asset and liability securitisation programmes

charter value risk taking and systemic risk in banking before and after the global financial crisis of 2007 2008 we investigate how bank charter value affects risk for a sample of oecd banks by using standalone and systemic risk measures before during and after the global financial crisis of 2007 2008 prio

does banks systemic importance affect their capital structure and balance sheet adjustment processes abstract frictions prevent banks to immediately adjust their capital ratio towards their desired and or imposed level this paper analyzes i whether or not these frictions are larger for regulatory capital ratios vis a vis a plain leverage ratio ii which adjustment channels banks use to adjust their capital ratio and iii how the speed of adjustment and adjustment channels differ between large systemic and complex banks versus small banks our results obtained using a sample of listed banks across oecd countries for the 2001 2012 period bear critical policy implications for the implementation of new systemic risk based capital requirements and their impact on banks balance sheets specifically lending and hence the real economy

the effects of foreign strategic investors on business models in china s commercial banks does ownership structure matter abstractintroducing foreign strategic investors fsis is a vital step in the ownership reforms of china s banking industry using china s data from 1995 to 2014 we employ propensity score matching and difference in differences approaches to investigate the effects of fsis on the business models of chinese banks including income structure and funding structure we find that fsis significantly influence income structure the bank s non interest income nii share significantly rises after introducing fsis the higher ownership shares of fsis are associated with the higher nii share and the nii share has been increased when fsis assign directors or senior managers to chinese banks we also report that the effects of fsis on income structure are weaker in state owned banks than those in other banks and ownership concentration weakens the links between fsis and income structure finally this article shows that fsis have no significant influence on funding structure these findings will be informative and

evolutionary theories in environmental and resource economics approaches and applications recent advances in evolutionary theory have important implications for environmental economics a short overview is offered of evolutionarythinking in economics subsequently major concepts and approaches inevolutionary biology and evolutionary economics are presented andcompared attention is devoted among others to darwinian selection punctuated equilibrium sorting mechanisms lamarckian evolution coevolution and self organization basic features of evolution such assustained change irreversible change unpredictability qualitativechange and disequilibrium are examined it is argued that there are anumber of fundamental differences as well as similarities betweenbiological and economic evolution next some general implications ofevolutionary thinking for environmental economics are outlined this isfollowed by a more detailed examination of potential uses ofevolutionary theories in specific areas of environmental economics including sustainability and long run development theories technologyand environment ecosystem management and resilience spatial evolutionand environmental processes and design of environmental policy

a distributional analysis of the fairtax plan annual and lifetime income considerations dissatisfaction with the current federal tax system is fostering serious interest in the fairtax plan which would replace most of the federal taxes with a national retail sales tax the fairtax is promoted as being progressive but there is considerable skepticism of this claim we examine the distributional effects of the fairtax as well as the current system it intends to replace under both annual income and lifetime income approaches global measures of progressivity suggest that the current federal tax system is progressive while the fairtax is regressive our results are also robust to different assumptions used for estimation

contagion and banking crisis international evidence for 2007 2009 abstract policy makers aim to avoid banking crises and although they can to some extent control domestic conditions internationally transmitted crises are difficult to tackle this paper identifies international contagion in banking during the 2007 2009 crisis for 54 economies we identify three channels of contagion systematic idiosyncratic and volatility and find evidence for these in 45 countries banking crises are overwhelmingly associated with the presence of both systematic and idiosyncratic contagion the results reveal that crisis shocks transmitted from a foreign jurisdiction via idiosyncratic contagion increase the likelihood of a systemic crisis in the domestic banking system by almost 37 percent whereas increased exposure via systematic contagion does not necessarily destabilize the domestic banking system thus while policy makers and regulatory authorities are rightly concerned with the systematic transmission of banking crises reducing the potential for idiosyncratic contagion can importantly reduce the consequences for the domestic economy

diversification in banking is noninterest income the answer this paper assesses potential diversification benefits in the u s banking industry from the steady shift toward activities that generate fee income trading revenue and other types of noninterest income in the aggregate declining volatility of net operating revenue reflects reduced volatility of net interest income not diversification benefits from noninterest income which is quite volatile and increasingly correlated with net interest income at the bank level greater reliance on noninterest income particularly trading revenue is associated with lower risk adjusted profits and higher risk this suggests few obvious diversification benefits from the ongoing shift toward noninterest income

do banks overstate their value at risk abstract this paper is the first empirical study of banks risk management systems based on non anonymous daily value at risk var and profit and loss data using actual data from the six largest canadian commercial banks we uncover evidence that banks exhibit a systematic excess of conservatism in their var estimates the data used in this paper have been extracted from the banks annual reports using an innovative matlab based data extraction method out of the 7354 trading days analyzed in this study there are only two exceptions i e days when the actual loss exceeds the disclosed var whereas the expected number of exceptions with a 99 var is 74 for each sample bank we extract from historical vars a risk overstatement coefficient ranging between 19 and 79 we attribute var overstatement to several factors including extreme cautiousness and underestimation of diversification effects when aggregating vars across business lines and or risk categories we also discuss the economic and social cost of reporting inflated vars

heterogeneous life cycle profiles income risk and consumption inequality was the increase in income inequality in the us due to permanent shocks or merely to an increase in the variance of transitory shocks the implications for consumption and welfare depend crucially on the answer to this question we use consumer expenditure survey cex repeated cross section data on consumption and income to decompose idiosyncratic changes in income into predictable life cycle changes transitory and permanent shocks and estimate the contribution of each to total inequality our model fits the joint evolution of consumption and income inequality well and delivers two main results first we find that permanent changes in income explain all of the increase in inequality in the 1980s and 1990s second we reconcile this finding with the fact that consumption inequality did not increase much over this period our results support the view that many permanent changes in income are predictable for consumers even if they look unpredictable to the econometrician consistent with models of heterogeneous income profiles

determinants of income diversification evidence from chinese banks this article presents an analysis of the determinants of chinese commercial banks income diversification decisions using a panel dataset comprising 88 chinese domestic banks from 2003 to 2010 we

the evolution of cost productivity and efficiency among us credit unions abstract advances in information processing technology have eroded the advantages of small scale and proximity to customers that traditionally enabled small lenders to thrive nonetheless the membership and market share of us credit unions have increased though their average size has also risen we investigate changes in the efficiency and productivity of us credit unions during 1989 2006 by benchmarking the performance of individual firms against an estimated order quantile lying near the efficient frontier we construct a cost analog of the malmquist productivity index which we decompose to estimate changes in cost and scale efficiency and changes in technology we find that cost productivity fell on average across all credit unions but especially among smaller credit unions smaller credit unions confronted a shift in technology that increased the minimum cost required to produce given amounts of output all but the largest credit unions also became less scale efficient over time

foreign bank diversification and efficiency prior to and during the financial crisis does one business model fit all diversified and focused business models may affect foreign bank efficiency differently we investigate whether there is an optimal business model along three business dimensions assets funding and income and which business model is optimal for foreign banks in a financial center we apply recently developed non parametric methods with bootstrap to estimate group efficiency to test for differences across groups and finally to analyze the link between bank efficiency and diversification measures using luxembourg bank data that include the financial crisis we find that there is no unique business model the most efficient business model appears to be a focused asset funding and income strategy banks organizational forms play a role branches may be preferable to subsidiaries prior to the financial crisis whereas bank subsidiaries perform better than branches during the financial crisis however branches diversified in assets funding and income exploit efficiency advantages during the financial crisis

are credit unions too small abstract u s credit unions serve 93 million members hold 10 of u s savings deposits and make 13 2 of all nonrevolving consumer loans since 1985 the share of u s depository institution asse

competition and increasing returns to scale a model of bank size this study examines the causal effects of bank size on banks survival asset quality and leverage two forces drive these effects increasing returns to scale derived from banks expertise and competition the first enables bigger banks to survive competition better have higher asset quality and be more leveraged it drives banks into a race for expansion this race toughens competition between banks which edges out small banks and may worsen all banks asset quality consequently the banking industry will be dominated by a small number of highly leveraged banks in this study financial intermediation arises endogenously and co exists with direct finance

off balance sheet activity under adverse selection the european experience abstract in the crisis that started in 2007 banks off balance sheet activity has been blamed for flooding the market with low quality assets and contributing to spreading risk throughout the economic system nevertheless this view is hardly sustainable within the context of sophisticated markets this paper puts forward an alternative interpretation of the off balance sheet market the so called adverse selection hypothesis according to this hypothesis an adverse selection problem characterizes the relation between banks and their counterparties in off balance sheet deals empirically this implies that off balance sheet activity is expected to be negatively related to failure risk whereas it is expected to be positively related to the quality of the assets used for off balance sheet operations we test the adverse selection hypothesis for a sample of banks in the 27 member countries of the european union during the pre crisis period 1996 2006 and the crisis period 2007 2009 in addition we check for possible differences between banks in the first 15 members of the european union and those in the 12 new members

non performing loans moral hazard and regulation of the chinese commercial banking system abstract non performing loans npls represent a major obstacle to the development of banking sector one of the key objectives of the banking sector reforms in china has therefore been to reduce the high level of npls to do so chinese regulatory authorities have injected significant capital into the banking system and scrutinized npls since 2003 this paper examines the impact of npls on bank behavior in china using a threshold panel regression model and a dataset covering 60 city commercial banks 16 state owned banks and joint stock banks and 11 rural commercial banks during 2006 2012 we test whether lending decisions of chinese banks exhibit moral hazard the results support the moral hazard hypothesis suggesting that an increase in the npls ratio raises riskier lending potentially causing further deterioration of the loan quality and financial system instability policy implications of findings are evaluated

the diversification and financial performance of us credit unions abstract for us credit unions revenue from non interest sources has increased significantly in recent years we investigate the impact of revenue diversification on financial performance for the period 1993 2004 the impact of a change in strategy that alters the share of non interest income is decomposed into a direct exposure effect reflecting the difference between interest and non interest bearing activities and an indirect exposure effect which reflects the effect of the institution s own degree of diversification on both risk adjusted and unadjusted returns measures a positive direct exposure effect is outweighed by a negative indirect exposure effect for all but the largest credit unions this may imply that similar diversification strategies are not appropriate for large and small credit unions small credit unions should eschew diversification and continue to operate as simple savings and loan institutions while large credit unions should be encouraged to exploit new product opportunities around their core expertise

the growth of us credit unions abstract the growth of us credit unions during the 1990s is investigated empirically using univariate and multivariate cross sectional and panel estimation techniques univariate tests of the law of proportionate effect suggest that in general large credit unions grew faster than their smaller counterparts on average credit unions with above average growth in one period tended to experience below average growth in the next smaller credit unions tended to have more variable growth than large ones while credit unions share a common co operative philosophy they differ in terms of age profile scope for membership growth charter type and financial structure and performance in estimations of a multivariate growth model most of these characteristics are found to have a significant influence on the size growth relationship while large state chartered credit unions grew faster than their smaller counterparts the reverse was true for federally chartered credit unions in general if larger credit unions grew faster than smaller ones they tended to do so for specific reasons because their charters were less restrictive because they were more efficient or because they had a financial structure that was more conducive to growth therefore credit union growth was not random but highly systematic

universal banking and firm risk taking abstract this paper analyzes the welfare implications of banks taking equity stakes in firms under conditions of imperfect information and moral hazard two cases of bank control over investment decisions are analyzed in the first the bank does not control the investment decisions of the firm here the investment efficiency is higher and bank risk is lower for an optimal positive level of bank equity holdings however in the case when the bank has veto power over investment proposals by the firm there is a trade off between increased investment efficiency and increased bank risk

does the size of islamic banking matter for industry growth international evidence islamic banking which has witnessed unprecedented growth in the last quarter of the century is hypothesized to be able to contribute to the development of the financial sector and thus to economic

tobin s q and the importance of focus in firm performance using tobin s q as a measure of performance we seek to estimate the relative importance of industry focus and share effects in determining firm performance our methods are analogous to those of richard schmalensee and like him we find that industry effects account for the majority of the explained variance however we also find that firm effects exist in the form of focus effects that is narrowly diversified firms do better than widely diversified firms we interpret this finding as consistent with profit maximization by firms with different factor endowments

a portfolio view of banking with interest and noninterest activities this paper uses a portfolio framework to evaluate the impact of increased noninterest income on equity market measures of return and risk of u s bank holding companies from 1997 to 2004 the results indicate that the banks most reliant on activities that generate noninterest income do not earn higher average equity returns but are much more risky as measured by return volatility both total and idiosyncratic and market betas this suggests that the pervasive shift toward noninterest income has not improved the risk return outcomes of u s banks in recent years

the impact of off balance sheet activities on banks returns an application of the arch m to canadian data abstract this paper revisits the impact of off balance sheet obs activities on banks risk return trade off recent studies e g stiroh and rumble 2006 show that increasing obs activities does not necessarily yield straightforward diversification benefits for banks however introducing a risk premium in the standard banks returns models and resorting to an arch m procedure canadian data suggest that banks risk return trade off displays a structural break around 1997 in the second subperiod of our sample 1997 2007 we find that the noninterest income generated by obs activities no longer impacts banks returns negatively while during the first period 1988 1996 the volatility variable is not significant in any returns equations a risk premium eventually emerges pricing the risk associated to obs activities

systemic risk and bank business models textabstractin this paper we decompose banks systemic risk into two dimensions the risk of a bank bank tail risk and the link of the bank to the system in financial distress systemic linkage based on extreme value theory we estimate a systemic risk measure that can be decomposed into two subcomponents reflecting these dimensions empirically we assess the relationships of bank business models to the two dimensions of systemic risk the observed differences in these relationships partly explain why micro and macroprudential perspectives sometimes have different implications for banking regulation

bank capital and liquidity creation in asia pacific we calculate liquidity creation for a large sample of commercial banks in 14 asia pacific economies from 2005 to 2012 we find that banks in this region created 7 83 trillion in liquidity in 2012 or approximately 3 24 times the total liquidity created in 2005 large banks and those based in developing asia created the highest liquidity we also investigate the bicausal relationship between liquidity creation and regulatory capital and find that the trade off between the benefits of financial stability induced by enhanced capital requirements and those of higher liquidity creation is applicable to all of the sample banks regardless of bank size and economic region

bank competition and financial stability much ado about nothing the theoretical literature gives conflicting predictions on how bank competition should affect financial stability and dozens of researchers have attempted to evaluate the relationship empirically we collect 598 estimates of the competition stability nexus reported in 31 studies and analyze the literature using meta analysis methods we control for 35 aspects of study design and employ bayesian model averaging to tackle the resulting model uncertainty our findings suggest that the definition of financial stability and bank competition used by researchers influences their results in a systematic way the choice of data estimation methodology and control variables also affects the reported coefficient we find evidence for moderate publication bias taken together the estimates reported in the literature suggest little interplay between competition and stability even when corrected for publication bias and potential misspecifications this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

economies of diversification in the us credit union sector summary significant scale economies have been recently cited to rationalize a dramatic growth in the us retail credit union sector over the past few decades in this paper we explore another plausible supply side explanation for the growth of the industry namely economies of diversification we focus on the fact that credit unions differ among themselves in the range of financial services they offer to their members since larger credit unions tend to offer a more diversified financial service menu than credit unions of a smaller size the incentive to grow in size may be fueled not only by present scale economies but also by economies of diversification this paper provides the first robust estimates of such economies of diversification for the credit union sector we estimate a flexible semiparametric smooth coefficient quantile panel data model with correlated effects that is capable of accommodating a four way heterogeneity among credit unions our results indicate the presence of non negligible economies of diversification in the industry we find that as many as 27 91 depending on the type and the cost quantile of diversified credit unions enjoy substantial economies of diversification the cost of most remaining credit unions is invariant to the scope of services we also find overwhelming evidence of increasing returns to scale in the industry

econometric issues in macroeconomic models with generated regressors the paper critically reviews the literature on the econometric issues raised by the use of generated regressors gr in empirical models the economic rationale for the use of gr is considered with examples being drawn from several macroeconomic examples including new classical macroeconomic ncm models which postulate monetary neutrality various estimation methods are discussed for models which include surprise or unexpected terms and the strengths and weaknesses of each approach are investigated drawing upon the work of mcaleer and mckenzie 1991 situations where the typically inefficient two step estimation 2se method will be efficient are highlighted problems of model misspecification and measurement errors are also investigated an empirical section highlights some of the dangers of using uncorrected 2se estimation results through a careful consideration of many recent attempts to test the ncm monetary neutrality hypothesis copyright 1993 by blackwell publishers ltd

macroeconomic uncertainty and banks lending decisions the case of italy this article discusses the role that macroeconomic uncertainty plays in banks decisions on the optimal asset allocation following the portfolio model proposed by baum et al 2005 the article aims at disentangling how italian banks choose between loans and risk free assets when uncertainty on macroeconomic conditions increases the econometric results confirm that macroeconomic uncertainty is a significant determinant of banks investment decisions also after controlling for other factors in periods of increasing turmoil banks ability to accurately forecast future returns is hindered and herding behaviour tends to emerge as witnessed by the reduction of the cross sectional variance of the share of loans held in portfolio

does collateral fuel moral hazard in banking this paper presents two models in which the fluctuating value of loan collateral real estate generates the problem of moral hazard between a bank and a deposit insurance agent the bank finances risky projects against collateral and relies on the rising collateral value if the collateral value later appreciates the bank enjoys handsome profits otherwise the bank fails the findings are rather consistent with the characteristics of the topical subprime mortgage crisis

economic value competition and financial distress in the european banking system abstract in this paper we examine the impact of a large number of factors at the bank level liquidity and credit risks asset size income diversification and market power at the industry level banking concentration and macro level real gdp growth on bank financial distress using an unbalanced panel of 308 european commercial banks between 1996 and 2009 the observations falling below a given threshold of the empirical distribution of the shareholder value ratio proxy bank financial distress we employ a panel probit regression and given the presence of overlapping data giving rise to residual autocorrelation we use the bertschek and lechner 1998 robust estimator of the covariance matrix of parameters we show that credit risk liquidity risk and bank market power are the most influential determinants of distressed shareholder value ratio finally we evaluate the model out sample forecasting performance over the 2008 2009 crisis period

determinants of bank cost efficiency in transition economies evidence for latin america central and eastern europe and south east asia in this study we adopt wang s 2002 heteroscedastic stochastic frontier model which allows us to investigate bank cost efficiency and to measure the marginal effects of some variables on both the level and the variability of inefficiency in recent years the financial crisis has significantly affected the banking systems of the transition countries hence the efficiency is of major importance for the stability of the banks regarding the determinants of efficiency we find evidence that banks that follow a more cautious strategy characterized by lower risk appetite and average expectations on profitability have higher cost efficiency we also find that traditional deposit taking and loan making still remain the most efficient activity of the banks additionally the results showed that a higher gross domestic product growth rate implies an increase in the inefficiency level indicating an unsustainable bank management behaviour which in periods of economic growth adopts policies that can generate

the impact of underwriting and dealing on bank returns and risks abstract this study uses portfolio theory to investigate empirically the potential for diversification gains from expanded bank securities powers diversification potential is examined using microeconomic data on returns to existing bank securities and non securities activities over 1976 through 1985 both the mean and standard deviation of returns to securities activities are found to be greater than those of non securities activities some potential for diversification gains is found although this appears to be quite limited experiments designed to estimate the effect of using industry and time aggregated data are performed

measuring consumption smoothing in cex data this paper proposes and implements a new method of measuring the degree of consumption smoothing using data from the consumer expenditure survey the structure of this survey is such that estimators previously used in the literature are inconsistent simply because income is measured annually and consumption is measured quarterly we impose an ar 1 structure on the income process to obtain a proxy for quarterly income through a projection on annual income by construction this proxy gives rise to a measurement error which is orthogonal to the proxy itself as opposed to the unobserved regressor leading to a consistent estimator we contrast our estimates with the output of two estimators used in the literature we show that while the flrst ols estimator tends to overstate the degree of risk sharing the second iv estimator grossly understates it

simple banking profitability and the yield curve how does bank profitability vary with interest rates we present a model of a monopolistically competitive bank subject to repricing frictions and test the model s predictions using a unique panel data set on uk banks we find evidence that large banks retain a residual exposure to interest rates even after accounting for hedging activity operating through the trading book in the long run both level and slope of the yield curve contribute positively to profitability in the short run however increases in market rates compress interest margins consistent with the presence of nonnegligible loan pricing frictions

the risk of financial intermediaries this paper reconsiders the formal estimation of bank risk using the variability of the profit function in our model point estimates of the variability of profits are derived from a model where this variability is endogenous to other bank characteristics such as capital and liquidity we estimate the new model on the entire panel of us banks spanning the period 1985q1 2012q4 the findings show that bank risk was fairly stable up to 2001 and accelerated quickly thereafter up to 2007 we also establish that the risk of the relatively large banks and banks that failed in the subprime crisis is higher than the industry s average thus we provide a new leading indicator which is able to forecast future solvency problems of banks

do cross country differences in bank efficiency support a policy of national champions abstract as banking consolidation proceeds and europe moves toward a single market cross country differences in banking efficiency can affect the future competitive position of a country s financial market helping to determine which european money centers may expand or contract looking at large banks across 10 countries we find they are roughly equally efficient after controlling for differences in business environment banking costs and bank productivity as no country seems to have a strong efficiency advantage it seems likely that state efforts to promote national champions through favorable mergers which expand scale and market share may determine the outcome

how progressive is the u s federal tax system a historical and international perspective this paper provides estimates of federal tax rates by income groups in the united states since 1960 with special emphasis on very top income groups we include individual and corporate income taxes payroll taxes and estate and gift taxes the progressivity of the u s federal tax system at the top of the income distribution has declined dramatically since the 1960s this dramatic drop in progressivity is due primarily to a drop in corporate taxes and in estate and gift taxes combined with a sharp change in the composition of top incomes away from capital income and toward labor income the sharp drop in statutory top marginal individual income tax rates has contributed only moderately to the decline in tax progressivity international comparisons confirm that is it critical to take into account other taxes than the individual income tax to properly assess the extent of overall tax progressivity both for time trends and for cross country comparisons the pattern for the united kingdom is similar to the u s pattern france had less progressive taxes than the united states or the united kingdom in 1970 but has experienced an increase in tax progressivity and has now a more progressive tax system than the united states or the united kingdom

the output effects of government sponsored cartels during the new deal this paper uses the national industrial recovery act of 1933 which set up industry wide cartels in the manufacturing sector of the us economy to gain empirical insight into the current debate on the output effects of cartels recent theoretical studies have demonstrated ways in which cartels could expand rather than reduce output as is traditionally thought the new deal cartel experiment does not support this efficient cartel view on the contrary the legislation brought about a reduction in manufacturing output as traditional cartel theory would predict

market power in cee banking sectors and the impact of the global financial crisis the aim of this study is to undertake an up to date assessment of market power in central and eastern european banking markets and explore how the global financial crisis has affected market power and what has been the impact of foreign ownership three main results emerge first while there is some convergence in country level market power during the pre crisis period the onset of the global crisis has put an end to this process second bank level market power appears to vary significantly with respect to ownership characteristics third asset quality and capitalization affect differently the margins in the pre crisis and the crisis periods while in the pre crisis period the impacts are similar for all banks regardless of ownership status in the crisis period non performing loans have a negative effect and capitalization a positive effect only for domestically owned banks

lifetime incidence and the distributional burden of excise taxes this implies that low income households in one year have some chance of being higher income households in other years and significantly affects the estimated distributional burden of excise taxes this paper shows that household expenditures on gasoline alcohol and tobacco as a share of total consumption a proxy for lifetime income are much more equally distributed than expenditures as a share of annual income from a longer horizon perspective excise taxes on these goods are therefore much less regressive than standard analyses suggest this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

local versus international crises and bank stability does bank foreign expansion make a difference abstractwe investigate the impact of global and local crises on bank stability in the mena region and examine the effect of owning bank subsidiaries in other countries we consider banks that experienced both types of crises during our sample period our findings highlight a negative impact of the global financial crisis of 2007 2008 on bank stability but on the whole no negative impact of the local crisis a deeper investigation shows that owning bank subsidiaries outside the home country is a source of increased fragility during normal times yet a source of higher stability during the local crisis but not during the international crisis moreover owning foreign subsidiaries in one or two world regions is insufficient to neutralize both types of crises while being present in three or more regions is more stabilizing during a local crisis but also more destabilizing during an international crisis our findings contribute to the literature examining bank stability and have several policy implications

shareholder value creation in japanese banking this paper advances the study of fiordelisi and molyneux 2010 by examining the shareholder value efficiency and its determinants for a large sample of japanese banks between 1999 and 2011 a new specifically tailored measure of the economic value added approach based on the shadow price of equity is developed in order to account for specific characteristics of the japanese banking system this new shareholder value measure is then used in a dynamic panel data model as a linear function of various bank risk bank specific and macroeconomic variables this study finds that cost efficiency gains credit risk and bank size are the most important factors in explaining the shareholder value creation in japanese banking cost efficiency changes are also found to significantly influence cost of equity capital

the competitive role of credit unions in small local financial services markets although there is a considerable literature on the role of market structure in banking markets no attention has been given to the impact of the competitive discipline provided by credit unions on consumer credit rates offered by banks after presenting a theoretical framework for understanding the impact credit unions should be expected to have this article analyzes a pooled cross sectional time series sample with roughly 1 000 observations on relatively small united states markets with the focus on explaining bank rates for two types of consumer loans results confirm the previously observed role of market structure and suggest a significant role for credit unions in disciplining the exercise of market power by banks

the response of household consumption to income tax refunds a central implication of the life cycle or permanent income theory is that consumption should not respond to predictable fluctuations in income tests of this implication have yielded mixed results especially on micro data angus deaton 1992 martin browning and annamaria lusardi 1996 in large part this might be due to the difficulties of isolating the predictable component of income at the micro level most tests proceed by instrumenting for income but since the available instruments are typically poor such tests might be prejudiced against finding significant excess sensitivity of consumption to income john shea 1995 also it is not clear how closely the resulting econometric predictions of income coincide with agents actual expectations of income to avoid these difficulties this paper examines the response of household consumption to a particular type of income that is both predictable and transitory income tax refunds since a refund depends on events in the previous calendar year it is predictable income as regards consumption in the year of its receipt consequently under the life cycle theory consumption should not increase on receipt of a refund 2 in addition to testing the canonical model of consumption this paper provides estimates interpretable as the marginal propensity to consume mpc out of refunds since federal tax refunds now amount to over 80 billion per year averaging well over 1 000 per refund these estimates are of interest in themselves more generally they bear on the impact of even preannounced and temporary changes in fiscal policy the paper begins by surveying related studies in section i section ii describes the data the consumer expenditure survey cex which of the leading u s micro data sets has the most comprehensive coverage of expenditure the empirical specification is set out in section hi section iv reports the results and section v concludes

bank competition and financial stability in asia pacific the impact of bank competition on financial stability has been a focus of academic and policy debate over the last two decades and particularly since the 2007 08 global financial crises beck 2008 oecd 2011 under the traditional competition fragility view banks cannot earn monopoly rents in competitive markets and this results in lower profits capital ratios and charter values this makes banks less able to withstand demand or supply side shocks and encourages excessive risk taking marcus 1984 alternatively the competition stability view suggests that competition leads to greater stability a less competitive banking market may lead to more risk taking if the big banks are deemed too important to fail and as such obtain implicit or explicit subsidies via government safety nets mishkin 1999 in addition banks with more market power tend to charge higher loan rates which may induce borrowers to assume greater risk leading to greater default in competitive banking markets loan rates are lower too big to fail issues and safety net subsidies are smaller and this results in a positive link between bank competition and stability boyd and de nicolo 2005 it could also be the case as noted by martinez miera and repullo 2010 that bank competition and stability are linked in a non linear manner and in a similar vein berger et al 2009 argue that competition and concentration may coexist and can simultaneously induce stability or fragility

bank income structure and risk an empirical analysis of european banks the purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between bank risk and product diversification in the changing structure of the european banking industry based on a broad set of european banks for the period 1996 2002 our study first shows that banks expanding into non interest income activities present higher risk and higher insolvency risk than banks which mainly supply loans however considering size effects and splitting non interest activities into both trading activities and commission and fee activities we show that the positive link with risk is mostly accurate for small banks and essentially driven by commission and fee activities a higher share of trading activities is never associated with higher risk and for small banks it implies in some cases lower asset and default risks

shapley value based pricing for auctions and exchanges abstract this paper explores how the shapley value can be used as the basis of a payment rule for auctions and exchanges the standard shapley value is modified so that losing bidders do not make or receive any payments the new rule called the balanced winner contribution bwc rule satisfies a variation of myerson s balanced contribution property the payment rule is fair in the sense that with respect to reported values the members of every pair of traders make equal contributions to each other s share of the gains from trade bwc payments can be used in single item auctions and more complex auctions and exchanges with multiple items and package bidding a series of examples is presented to illustrate how the bwc rule works and how the payments compare to those based on competitive prices the core and the vickrey clarke groves mechanism

short term safety or long term failure empirical evidence of the impact of securitization on bank risk based on a sample of u s commercial banks from 2002 to 2012 this paper shows that bank loan securitization has a significant and positive impact on both z scores and the likelihood of bank failure indicating a short term risk reduction and a long term risk increase effect we also find disparate impacts between mortgage and non mortgage securitization loan sale activities are found to have a similar impact to securitization

consumer surplus enhancing collusion and trade that collusion among sellers hurts buyers is a central tenet in economics we provide an oligopoly model in which collusion can raise consumer surplus a differentiated product duopoly operates in two geographically separated markets each market is home to a single firm but can import at a cost from the foreign firm under some circumstances a perfect cartel relative to duopolistic competition raises the price of the imported good and lowers the price of the home good this raises welfare for most consumers and increases aggregate consumer surplus a similar possibility result applies to autarky our analysis applies beyond the spatial setting

how loan portfolio diversification affects risk efficiency and capitalization a managerial behavior model for austrian banks abstract the aim of this paper is to analyze how diversification of banks across size and industry affects risk cost and profit efficiency and bank capitalization for large austrian commercial banks over the years 1997 2003 employing a unique dataset provided by the austrian central bank we test for several different types of managerial hypotheses formalized according to a modified version of the berger and deyoung model berger a n deyoung r 1997 problem loans and cost efficiency in commercial banks journal of banking and finance 21 849 870 we find that although diversification negatively affects cost efficiency it increases profit efficiency and reduces banks realized risk finally diversification seems to have a positive impact on banks capitalization

what precludes the development of noninterest activities in chinese commercial banks from the perspective of the price of interest activities noninterest activities of chinese commercial banks remain sluggish this article examines the price of interest activities and noninterest activities of chinese commercial banks over 2000 2010 based on ols and 2sls regression we find that the price of interest activities has a significant negative effect on the noninterest activities it appears that controlled interest rate is the main hindrance of the development of noninterest activities and the result is consistent with political view we also find that among state owned commercial banks and nonstate owned ones the relationships of interest activities and noninterest activities are differential the link between the price of interest activities and noninterest activities in state owned commercial banks is stronger than that in nonstate owned commercial banks that is the result of different government intervention degree

the effects of real and nominal uncertainty on inflation and output growth some garch m evidence in this paper we use garch m methods to test four hypotheses about the effects of real and nominal uncertainty on average inflation and output growth in the united states from 1948 to 1996 we find no evidence that higher inflation uncertainty or higher output growth uncertainty raises the average inflation rate we also find no support for the idea that more risky output growth is associated with a higher average real growth rate our key result is that in a variety of models and sample periods inflation uncertainty significantly lowers real output growth copyright 2000 john wiley sons ltd

deregulation technological change and the business lending performance of large and small banks according to deyoung et al journal of financial services research 2004 deregulation and technological change has divided the us banking industryinto two primarysize based groups verylarge banks specializing in the use of hard information to make standardized loans and smaller banks specializing in the use of soft information and relationship development to make non standardized loans we evaluate business lending performance for small and large banks over the 1993 2001 period small business lending bysmall banks is characterized byrelationship development and non standardized loans consistent with deyoung et al s model we find that after controlling for market concentration cost of funds and a variety of other factors that might influence yields smaller banks perform better than larger banks in the small business lending market however larger banks appear to have the advantage in credit card lending a market characterized byimpersonal relationships and standardized loans interestingly we find evidence that larger banks have been making inroads in the market for the smallest business loans a result consistent with the use of credit scoring bylarge banks to make

the relationship between net interest margin and noninterest income using a system estimation approach abstract this paper examines the determinants of bank net interest margin nim and non traditional banking activities nii a system estimation approach is employed to control for the simultaneity between nim and nii for commercial banks in a group of 28 financially liberalized countries during the period between 1997 and 2004 we find a statistically significant negative relationship between nim and nii for the period between 1997 and 2002 a generally positive but statistically insignificant association between nim and nii is found for the subsequent period 2003 2004 banks increasing involvement in non traditional activities is negatively correlated with risk adjusted profitability measures in the former subperiod suggesting no obvious diversification benefits however the share of noninterest income is positively related to the return on assets roa and the return on equity roe for the latter subsample

some calculations of lifetime tax incidence this paper reports a set of lifetime tax incidence calculations using a life cycle simulation model for canada due to davies 1979a 1982 a repeatedly stated qualification to annual calculations in the empirical tax incidence literature is that it would be more satisfactory to make calculations on a lifetime basis even though it is acknowledged that lifetime tax incidence could well differ from annual it is widely believed that data and other difficulties make such calculations next to impossible indeed the widespread acceptance of the data problems of lifetime calculations seems also to have inhibited speculation about how lifetime tax incidence might differ from annual as a result redistributive tax policy judgments continue to be based on annual incidence calculations in spite of the reservations many have about their usefulness our paper is intended to reorient discussion towards lifetime tax incidence by providing some initial null hypotheses about the shape of lifetime tax profiles our main finding is that under the standard competitive assumptions common in the incidence literature lifetime and annual incidence calculations both produce mild progression in tax rates across household deciles ignoring the bottom decile in the annual calculation while the income tax is less progressive in lifetime than in annual calculations other taxes are for the most part less regressive also lifetime incidence calculations are much more robust to alternative shifting assumptions than annual calculations in the lifetime context key distributions such as earnings transfer payments and consumption are less heavily concentrated in particular percentiles of the population than is true in annual data as a result changing the allocative series for any particular tax does not have the large effect on incidence results found in annual calculations each component of the tax system is allocated to households grouped by lifetime income using particular distributive series following a procedure similar to that employed in annual incidence calculations for example richard musgrave et al 1974 joseph pechman and benjamin okner 1974 edgar browning and william johnson 1979 w irwin gillespie 1980 in the process we are able to compare lifetime and annual incidence calculations using the same data set in both lifetime and annual calculations we allocate five groups of taxes among households using distributive series which come partly from the 1971 statistics canada survey of consumer finances scf and partly from our life cycle simulation model the scf data are used to construct synthetic longitudinal lifetime profiles of earnings and transfer payments for a sample of 500 households the latter are assigned inheritances by simulating patterns of mortality and bequest these data are then used in the life cycle model to generate lifetime consumption profiles and bequests the earnings transfer and inheritance data plus the model output provide the distributive series on which alternative incidence calculations are based while the incidence calculations presented in this paper use canadian data results would likely be similar for the united states

bank systemic risk and macroeconomic shocks canadian and u s evidence abstract this paper investigates how banks as a group react to macroeconomic risk and uncertainty more specifically it examines the relationship between bank systemic risk and changes and disruptions in economic conditions adopting the methodology of beaudry et al 2001 we introduce a new estimation procedure based on egarch to refine the framework developed by baum et al 2002 baum et al 2004 baum et al 2009 and quagliariello 2007 quagliariello 2009 and we analyze the relationship in the current industry context i e in the context of market based banking our results confirm that banks tend to behave more homogeneously vis a vis macroeconomic uncertainty in particular we find that both the cross sectional dispersion of loans to assets and the cross sectional dispersion of non interest income share shrink during slow growth episodes and particularly during financial crises when the resilience of the banking system is at its lowest more importantly our main findings indicate that the cross sectional dispersion of loans to assets has increased in the last decade whereas the cross sectional dispersion of non interest income share appears to be more volatile and sensitive to macroeconomic shocks

what do we know about investment under uncertainty recent theoretical developments relating to investment under uncertainty have highlighted the importance of irreversibility for the timing of investment expenditures and their expected returns this has subsequently stimulated a growing empirical literature which examines uncertainty and threshold effects on investment behaviour this paper presents a review of this literature a variety of methods have been used to investigate the empirical implication of irreversibility in investment the majority focusing on the relationship between investment flows and proxy measures of uncertainty a general conclusion is that increased uncertainty at both aggregate and disaggregate levels leads to lower investment rates this suggests that there is an irreversibility effect under which greater uncertainty raises the value of the call option to delay a commitment to investment this effect appears to dominate any positive impact on investment arising from the fact that greater uncertability under certain circumstances increases the marginal profitability of capital the methods used raise a number of issues which call into question the reliability of the findings and these are addressed in the paper however if such irreversibility effects are present then their omission from traditional investment models casts doubt on the efficacy of such specifications jel classification d81 d92 e22

the impact of bank capital on profitability and risk in asian banking abstract this article applies the generalized method of moments technique for dynamic panels using bank level data for 42 asian countries over the period 1994 to 2008 to investigate the impacts of bank capital on profitability and risk ignoring influence factors the extant literature presents an ambiguous impact of bank capital on profitability risk however when the effects from the influencing factors are taken into consideration three conclusions are reached first along with the change in the categories of banks investment banks have the lowest and positive capital effect on profitability whereas commercial banks reveal the highest reverse capital effect on risk second banks in low income countries have a higher capital effect on profitability banks in lower middle income countries have the highest reverse capital effect on risk while banks in high income countries have the lowest values third banks in middle eastern countries own the highest and positive capital effect on profitability far east central asian banks have the largest reverse capital effect on risk while the lowest value occurs in middle eastern countries banks finally our results also reveal that persistence of profit is greatly affected by different profitability variables and all risk variables show persistence from one year to the next

why banks are not too big to fail evidence from the cds market this paper argues that bank size is not a satisfactory measure of systemic risk because it neglects aspects such as interconnectedness correlation and the economic context in order to differentiate the effect of bank size from that of systemic importance we control for systemic risk using the covar measure introduced by adrian and brunnermeier 2011 we show that a bank s contribution to systemic risk has a significant negative effect on banks credit default swap cds spreads supporting the too systemic to fail hypothesis once we control for systemic risk bank size relative to gross domestic product gdp has either no or a positive effect on banks cds spreads the effect of bank size increases in the home country s debt ratio and turns positive already at moderate debt ratios this result is consistent with the too big to save hypothesis we show further that the effect of systemic risk rises sharply at the onset of the financial crisis in august 2007 but weakens after the failure of lehman brothers reflecting changing bailout expectations taken together our results suggest that banks are not too big to fail but they may be too systemic to fail and too big to save andreas barth and isabel schnabel

banks non traditional activities under regulatory changes impact on risk performance and capital adequacy using the big six canadian chartered banks quarterly financial statements and daily stock market data from 1982 to 2018 we examine the impact of non interest income on canadian banks risk perfor

competition and the core core theory is a powerful tool to find competitive market clearing prices a familiar economic setting shows this beginning with a single commodity produced using many factors of production and ending with the general case of many outputs and inputs the analysis describes when the market has a core when it has no core there is a least upper bound on the payment each firm that does not participate in a central market must make that serves as an inducement to restore the core since each firm can avoid this penalty by trading in the central market the result is market clearing prices that can support an efficient equilibrium