sustainability of external imbalances in the oecd countries the authors wish to thank three anonymous referees for helpful comments to a previous version financial support from the spanish institute for fiscal studies the spanish ministry of economy and competitiveness projects eco2011 29314 c02 02 o bajo rubio and c diaz roldan and eco2011 30260 c03 01 v esteve and the department of education and science of the regional government of castilla la mancha project peii09 0072 7392 is also gratefully acknowledged v esteve also acknowledges support from the generalitat valenciana project gvprometeo2009 098

capital mobility and foreign debt sustainabilty some evidence from turkey this paper address the extent of capital mobility and foreign debt sustainability in turkey over the 1962 2003 period by examining the relationship between saving and investment and imports and exports respectively the empirical investment is based on cointegration error correction models and threshold and momentum threshold autoregressive models our findings are consistent with the existence of capital mobility and the strong form of foreign debt sustainability

does intellectual property restrict output an analysis of pharmaceutical markets abstract standard analysis of intellectual property focuses on the balance between incentives for research and the welfare costs of restraining output through monopoly pricing we present evidence from the pharmaceutical industry that output often fails to rise after patent expirations patents restrict output by allowing monopoly pricing but may also boost output and welfare by improving incentives for marketing a form of nonprice competition we analyze how nonprice factors such as marketing mitigate and even offset the costs of monopoly associated with intellectual property empirical analysis of pharmaceutical patents suggests that in the short run patent expirations reduce output and consumer welfare by decreasing marketing in the long run patent expirations benefit consumers but by 30 percent less than would be implied by the reduction in price alone focusing only on the pricing issues of intellectual property may lead to incomplete or even inaccurate conclusions for welfare

quality choice of multiproduct monopolist and spill over effect abstract this paper considers the cost relatedness between qualities that are generally taken as being mutually independent in the standard self selection models unlike the standard results the quality distortion occurs in all qualities offered to both types of consumers and interestingly the direction of that distortion is determined by the rate of the marginal cost down from the spill over effect even a pooling menu may occur

ambiguity aversion in buyer seller relationships a contingent claims and social network explanation negotiations between buyers and sellers or suppliers of goods and services have become increasingly important due to the growing trend towards international purchasing outsourcing and global supply networks together with the high uncertainty associated with them this paper examines the effect of ambiguity aversion on price negotiations using multiple priors based real options with non extreme outcomes we study price negotiation between a buyer and seller in a dual contingent claims setting call option holding buyer vs put option holding seller to derive optimal agreement conditions under ambiguity with and without social network effects we find that while higher ambiguity aversion raises the threshold for commitment for the seller it has equivocal effects on the buyer s negotiation prospects in the absence of network control conversely when network position and relative bargaining power are accounted for we find the buyer s implicit price or negotiation threshold decreases or increases unequivocally with increasing aversion to ambiguity extending extant real options research on price negotiation to the case of ambiguity this set of results provides new insights into the role of ambiguity aversion and network structures in buyer seller relationships including how they influence the range of negotiation agreement between buyers and sellers the results also help assist managers in formulating robust buying selling strategies for bargaining under uncertainty by knowing their network positions and gathering background information or inferring the other party s ambiguity tolerance beforehand buyers and sellers can anticipate where the negotiation is heading in terms of price negotiation range and mutual agreement possibilities

technological progress and the chamberlin effect a monopolist s incentive to invest in cost reducing technological inventions may be detrimental to product quality in a model with variable cost of quality and heterogeneous consumers there is a possibility of quality reductions when new technology makes larger scale production feasible the effect on quality depends crucially on the number of varieties produced by the monopolist if he produces just one variety quality will be reduced whereas if he produces two varieties quality reductions only appear for more efficient means of producing the high quality good

testing the expectations hypothesis in the brazilian term structure of interest rates a cointegration analysis in this article the expectations hypothesis eh is tested using cointegration techniques for maturities ranging from 1 to 12 months for the brazilian market we found evidence suggesting that for the period 1995 2006 the cointegration implication generally seems to hold we also found strong evidence supporting causality from short to long rates and also in the opposite direction empirical evidence supports the expectations theory of the term structure of interest rates

purchasing power parity across mexican cities a panel data analysis this article presents three different unit root tests for panel data the main objective is to find the level of internal integration market through the purchasing power parity ppp evidence based in the balassa samuelson approach thus eight kinds of markets as tradable and nontradable goods for 16 main mexican cities during a 21 year period have been contrasted while two tests showed the ppp validity for seven markets the other rejected it the results obtained moreover feed the present controversy about which test is most appropriate to test the ppp as soon as it is highlighted new elements emerge to explain the half life analysis

income distribution and the contractionary effect of protection a theoretical analysis abstract in terms of a simple model we show that the removal of a tariff from a competing foreign brand is likely to expand the size of the domestic industry when income disparities exist a tariff increases the profits of the local monopolist but is capable of cutting down the size of the local industry after providing the general theoretical condition we construct an example from a class of examples where such an outcome holds in equilibrium

a simple model of pharmaceutical price dynamics abstract branded pharmaceutical firms use price and promotional strategy to manage public knowledge about their drugs we propose a dynamic theory of pharmaceutical pricing and conduct an exploratory empirical analysis inspired by the theory our theory predicts a pattern of increasing prices and decreasing promotional activities over a drug s life cycle prices are kept low and advertising levels high early in the life cycle in order to build public knowledge about the drug as knowledge grows prices rise and advertising falls if the management of this stock is important enough this tendency of prices to rise can overwhelm the price decreasing effect of entry by generic competitors late in the drug life cycle we argue that our theory of price dynamics explains empirical regularities in this industry

term structure inflation and real activity this paper estimates an internally consistent structural model that imposes cross sectional restrictions on the dynamics of the term structure of interest rates inflation and output growth distinct from previous term structure settings this model introduces both time varying central tendencies and a stochastic conditional mean of output growth the estimation of the model which is based on u s data over a 1960 to 2005 sample period provides reliable estimates for the implicit term structures of real interest rates expected inflation rates and inflation risk premia as well as for expectations of macroeconomic variables the model has better out of sample forecasting properties than a number of alternative models and it contradicts the puzzling evidence that during the great moderation in inflation subsequent to the mid 1980s the forecasting ability of structural models deteriorated with respect to atheoretic statistical models

precautionary principle and the optimal timing of environmental policy under ambiguity i consider a problem in environmental policy design in which i focus on stock pollutants in particular i consider stock pollutants that cause severe damage on the environment and do not depreciate at all once they are released into the atmosphere and the ocean the purposes of this paper are 1 to provide an economic foundation for environmental policies based on the precautionary principle and the 1992 rio declaration on environment and development and 2 to show that this optimal timing rule has a reservation property furthermore i analyze the effect of an increase in ambiguity on the optimal timing of adopting some environmental policy and show that an increase in ambiguity decreases the optimal timing of adopting the environmental policy

current account sustainability in the us what did we really know about it abstract we analyze the sustainability of the us current account ca deficit by means of unit root tests first we argue that there are several reasons to believe that the ca may follow a non linear mean reversion behavior under the null of stationarity using a non linear estar model we can reject the null of non stationarity favoring the sustainability hypothesis second we ask whether unit root tests are a useful indicator of sustainability by comparing in sample results for the 1960 2004 period to the developments observed up to the end of 2008 we find that the non linear model outperforms the linear and random walk models in terms of forecast performance the large shocks to the ca observed in the last five years induced a faster speed of mean reversion ensuring the necessary adjustment to meet the inter temporal budget constraint

risk aversion intertemporal substitution and the term structure of interest rates an equilibrium model of the term structure of interest rates is derived from a representative agent framework with recursive utility preferences a key ingredient is a time varying subjective discount factor which is linked to the short term rate of interest the proposed model incorporates a vector autoregression description of macroeconomic dynamics and links them to those of the term structure so that nominal bond yields are affine functions of observable state variables the model is estimated and compared to both a restricted expected utility version of the model and a reduced form no arbitrage model we find that all three models can fit the term structure equally well but that only the unrestricted non expected utility model can empirically account for the tent shaped pattern and magnitude of coefficients from predictive regressions of excess bond returns on forward rates documented by cochrane and piazzesi 2005 bond risk premia american economic review 95 138 160 the unrestricted equilibrium model fits the term structure and captures the important features of bond risk premiums with economically plausible values for the structural preference parameters

optimal pricing and quality choice when investment in quality is irreversible this paper examines the price and quality choice of a single product risk neutral monopolist who can delay irreversible investments required for market entry it is shown that the price and quality she chooses at entry increase with uncertainty about the size of future demand in a stackelberg leader follower game the leader and follower pre commit immediately up to a certain level of uncertainty in this case the leader produces the higher quality good when uncertainty is higher than this threshold the follower will wait and enter the market later with a higher quality good

the overvaluation of purchasing power parity abstract recent panel studies of purchasing power parity have reported strong evidence of mean reversion in real exchange rates however these studies fail to control for cross sectional dependence in the data this failure has dramatic consequences raising the significance level of tests with a nominal size of 5 percent to as much as 50 percent it is shown in this paper that controlling for cross sectional dependence no evidence against the random walk null can be found in panels of up to 64 real exchange rates this finding cannot be attributed to low power as there is ample power in panels of this size to reject the unit root null

the relative importance of aggregate and sector specific shocks at explaining aggregate and sectoral fluctuations abstract in this note we present a simple exercise aimed at disentangling the sectoral and aggregate effects of both aggregate and sector specific shocks we construct a structural multi sectoral model of the economy and show that after several hypotheses estimation of such structural model by vector auto regressions var is possible the most important assumption that we use is that sector specific shocks have no contemporaneous effects on sectors other than the sector where they originate although we do not exclude that they have some effects on the former sectors after some lag we estimate the model using monthly u s data the industrial production index so that the latter assumption is not to strong our results suggest that the aggregate effects of sector specific shocks are not large but on the other hand their sectoral effects dominate the sectoral effects of aggregate shocks

monopoly and product quality abstract this paper points out that without restrictions on the cost function distribution of consumer types and on the extent of market coverage the standard parameterization of preferences cannot by itself guarantee that a monopolist would choose a separating menu moreover there may not be any quality distortion

mean reversion of the current account evidence from the panel data unit root test abstract theoretically the modern intertemporal model of current account determination implies the stationarity of the current account however the empirical finding in the literature indicates nonstationary current account balances based on conventional unit root tests applying the panel data unit root test of im pesaran and shin we find support for the mean reverting property of the current account this in turn lends support to the intertemporal approach to the current account the policy implication of our findings is that current account deficits in major industrial countries are sustainable

technological advances transaction costs and consumer welfare consumers incur many transaction costs in purchasing and using most products this paper examines the effects of a reduction in such consumer transaction costs caused by market level technological advances using a model in which consumers are simultaneously heterogeneous in their transaction costs and in their marginal valuations of product quality this paper highlights two mechanisms that can cause such reductions in consumer transaction costs to lower consumer surplus and reduce consumer share of the total social surplus specifically market level technological advances reduce different consumers transaction costs by different amounts and increase their reservation prices by different amounts which can lead to i product design changes that many current consumers do not like and ii homogenization in consumer reservation prices that allows a seller to extract more surplus through its pricing policy this paper also shows that consumers may be better off with seller induced higher consumer transaction costs finally the paper shows how depending on the nature of the quality production process such reductions in consumer transaction costs can either lower or raise product qualities and consumer prices

quality discrimination among income constrained consumers abstract this paper provides a complete characterization of equilibrium menus offered by a monopolist to the income constrained consumers in a vertically differentiated market even when all consumers have the same marginal willingness to pay the monopolist can profitably discriminate between them provided they have different binding budget constraints

international capital mobility amongst the major industrialised countries too little or too much this paper examines capital flows among the major industrialized countries with a view to assessing m feldstein and c horioka s 1980 claim that international capital mobility is limited it argues that saving investment correlation tests are inherently flawed and proposes an alternative methodology for testing the degree of international capital mobility it finds that capital flows have been excessive in the sense that they are driven by speculative forces rather than by economic fundamentals copyright 1995 by royal economic society

irreversible investment and knightian uncertainty when firms make a decision about irreversible investment they may not have complete confidence about their perceived probability measure describing future uncertainty they may think other probability measures perturbed from the original one are also possible such uncertainty characterized by not a single probability measure but a set of probability measures is called knightian uncertainty the effect of knightian uncertainty on the value of irreversible investment opportunity is shown to be drastically different from that of traditional uncertainty in the form of risk specifically an increase in knightian uncertainty decreases the value of investment opportunity while an increase in risk increases it

optimal nonlinear pricing by a monopolist with information ambiguity we consider the optimal nonlinear pricing by an ambiguity averse monopolist the monopolist s subjective belief about the distribution of buyers is described by contamination of an additive probability we find that under a maxmin utility decision rule and with a continuum of buyers ambiguity aversion leads to bunching at the bottom in the optimal contract and the distortion at the bottom is reduced other high valuation buyers are offered the same quantity as in the case without ambiguity but they get a greater discount

hysteresis in unemployment empirical evidence from taiwan s region data based on panel unit root tests in this study we test the hysteresis hypothesis in unemployment for taiwan s 21 regional data sets using the levin et al 2002 im et al 2003 and taylor and sarno 1998 panel based unit root tests for the june 1993 to september 2001 period the results from all three tests provide evidence that based on taiwan s regional unemployment data the hysteresis hypothesis can justifiably be rejected

the j curve a literature review due to lag structure currency devaluation is said to worsen the trade balance first and improve it later resulting in a pattern that resemble the letter j hence the j curve phenomenon since its introduction by magee in 1973 brooking papers on economic activity 1 pp 303 25 a large number of studies have attempted to test the phenomenon using different techniques and different model specifications the results are at best ambiguous and deserve to be collected together for the future generation of researchers and graduate students this paper fills such a vacuum in the literature by reviewing the j curve related empirical papers

monopoly with incomplete information recent theoretical research on principal agent relationships has emphasized incentive problems that arise when the parties involved are constrained by either asymmetric information or their inability to monitor each other s actions here we concentrate on the former constraint and consider the case of a single principal the monopolist the main contribution is to show that under a separability assumption strong conclusions can be drawn about the nature of optimal incentive schemes although the primary focus is on optimal quantity discounts in a monopolized market the results also shed light on related topics such as optimal income taxation and commodity bundling

optimal pricing and quality choice of a monopolist under knightian uncertainty abstract this paper analyzes a simple vertical product differentiation model with demand uncertainty and derives a risk neutral monopolist s optimal market entry timing her optimal pricing and optimal quality choice by incorporating knightian uncertainty irreversibility and flexibility in quality enhancing investment into a continuous time stochastic model it is shown that an increase in knightian uncertainty induces decreases in the optimal price the optimal quality and the value of undertaking the quality enhancing investment by the monopolist the social optimal entry timing pricing and quality are also analyzed

the term structure of interest rates with housing abstract this paper develops a general equilibrium model to study the link between the amount of capital invested in housing assets and the term structure of interest rates in the model the production of housing assets is irreversible and housing assets can be used as collateral for borrowing funds agents decisions about consumption and investments in housing and non housing assets generate a time varying market price of risk that drives the dynamics of the term structure the calibration to u s data using the simulated method of moments technique captures the dynamics of consumption and the short and long term interest rates

a simple theory of advertising as a good or bad our analysis treats advertisements and the goods advertised as complements in stable metautility functions and generates new results for advertising by building on and extending the general analysis of complements by assimilating the theory of advertising into the theory of complements we avoid the special approaches to advertising found in many studies that place obstacles in the way of understanding the effects of advertising we also use this approach to evaluate advertising from a welfare perspective whether there is excessive or too little advertising depends on several variables the effects on consumer utility the degree of competition in the market for advertised goods the induced changes in prices and outputs of advertised goods and whether advertising is sold to consumers

capital mobility in the world economy an alternative test abstract this paper proposes a new measure and test of international capital mobility in order to investigate capital flows we utilize a small open economy version of campbell and mankiw s nber macroeconomic annual 1989 185 216 permanent income model our capital mobility measure focuses on the correlation between the country s consumption and net output instead of the correlation between domestic saving and domestic investment proposed by feldstein and horioka economic journal 90 1980 314 329 the model is estimated for 11 oecd countries the results suggest that the null hypothesis of perfect capital mobility cannot be rejected for more than a half of these countries on the other hand some kind of capital mobility constraints are detected for several countries including the united states and japan

risk uncertainty and option exercise many economic decisions can be described as an option exercise or optimal stopping problem under uncertainty motivated by experimental evidence such as the ellsberg paradox we follow knight 1921 and distinguish risk from uncertainty to capture this distinction we adopt the multiple priors utility model we show that the impact of ambiguity on the option exercise decision depends on the relative degrees of ambiguity about continuation payoffs and termination payoffs consequently ambiguity may accelerate or delay option exercise we apply our results to investment and exit problems and show that the myopic npv rule can be optimal for an agent having an extremely high degree of ambiguity aversion

an extension of the maximum score estimator for disequilibrium models abstract mayer and dorsey 1998 mayer w j dorsey r e 1998 maximum score estimation of disequilibrium models and the role of anticipatory price setting journal of econometrics 87 1 4 propose a maximum score estimator for disequilibrium models with anticipatory pricing models here i prove consistency under assumptions that allow for more general price adjustment processes i also show that the smoothing function used in mayer and dorsey 1998 can be replaced with a simpler function that requires fewer arbitrary choices by the researcher

testing for the sustainability of the current account deficit in two industrial countries abstract the objective of this paper is to test for the sustainability of the current account deficits in the united states and canada over the 1973 1994 period using various unit root and cointegration tests some of which allow for structural changes we conclude that the real current account deficits to gdp ratios are not sustainable

market segmentation self selection and product line design the purpose of this paper is to develop a theory of market segmentation based on consumer self selection the extant theory is based on the third degree price discrimination model of pigou central assumptions of which are that the firm can directly address individual segments and isolate them by using consumer self selection i am relaxing these assumptions in the context of a monopolist designing a product line i show that this relaxation has significant implications for how the products and prices are chosen and what they look like in particular segments may be aggregated even though there are no economies of scale furthermore consumer self selection enables us to model cannibalization and competition among firms

the yield curve and macroeconomic dynamics we show that microfounded dsge models with nominal rigidities can be successful in replicating features of bond yield data including sizeable term premia and volatile long term yields which have previously been considered puzzling in general equilibrium frameworks at the same time sample moments of consumption growth and inflation can be fit relatively well the improved model performance does not arise directly from the presence of nominal rigidities however this feature introduces short run monetary non neutrality so that monetary policy affects consumption dynamics and bond prices a high degree of interest rate smoothing in the policy rule is essential for our results at the core of dynamic macroeconomic models we find equilibrium relationships which describe the allocation of quantities e g consumption and investment and when imperfect competition prevails the setting of prices these equations are typically valid across time and across states of nature and financial assets form the tool that is supposed to ensure their validity financial assets are therefore an integral part of macroeconomic models any well specified model should be able to match financial data as well as macro data it is therefore problematic that microfounded models have had a hard time explaining key features of asset prices the most famous example of this difficulty is the equity premium puzzle but various features of bond yield data have also been char acterised as puzzling in the literature a number of papers including backus et al 1989 donaldson et al 1990 den haan 1995 and chapman 1997 have con cluded that general equilibrium models cannot generate term premia of a magnitude comparable to what we observe in actual data and may not even be capable of producing positive term premia for equity one could argue that fundamentals the expected future profitability of individual firms are unobservable and difficult to evaluate equity prices may therefore be thought to be subject to fluctuations disconnected from the real economy information acquisition fads etc and one could hope that the inability of macroeconomic models to match equity prices does not represent a signal of misspecification this argument is more difficult to construct for bonds bond yields should ultimately reflect expectations of future monetary policy decisions which at least in recent years are arguably more predictable than equity fundamentals thus the ability of macroeconomic models to explain bond prices represents an important test of their empirical performance in this article we revisit the relationship between bond prices and macroeconomic fundamentals contrary to the papers cited above that rely on flexible price models we

the displacement effect in the growth of governments we analyze the displacement effect within a multivariaterevenue expenditure model of government growth based on along historical dataset for italy our long run analysisshows a permanent influence of domestic product on the growthof governments supporting wagner s law the short rundynamics are more complex and provide some evidence for thedisplacement effect in terms of a lower resistance againsttax financing of government spending in the post war inaddition government spending adjusts faster when deviationsfrom its equilibrium get larger

search and knightian uncertainty suppose that uncertainty about labor market conditions has increased does this change induce an unemployed worker to search longer or shorter this paper shows that the answer is drastically different depending on whether an increase in uncertainty is an increase in risk or that in true uncertainty in the sense of frank knight we show in a general framework that while an increase in risk the mean preserving spread of the wage distribution that the worker thinks she faces increases the reservation wage an increase in knightian uncertainty a decrease in her confidence about the wage distribution reduces it

quality underprovision by a monopolist when quality is not costly in the mussa and rosen model j econ theory 18 1978 301 of vertical differentiation a monopolist may optimally choose to underprovide quality if consumers are allowed to buy several units of the indivisible good even if quality provision involves no cost of any sort c 2002 elsevier science b v all rights reserved

are current account deficits sustainable evidence from panel cointegration abstract conventional cointegration tests fail to consider information across countries which leads to efficiency loss in estimation in this article we apply panel cointegration tests to examine the cointegration between exports and imports among the g7 our findings support the sustainability of current accounts among major industrial countries which lends support to the intertemporal approach to the current account

an enlarged definition of cointegration abstract a broader definition of cointegration is presented allowing for different orders in the original process as a result different cointegration vectors may be generated from a given one however if the cointegrated process is stationary then the standard ideas and methods may still apply

a comment on a model of vertical product differentiation in a duopoly model with vertical differentiation if the firms do not cover the market the lower quality firm chooses a quality level exactly 4 7 of that of the higher quality firm and chooses a price that is 2 7 of the price of the higher quality firm copyright 1992 by blackwell publishing ltd

government budget deficits and trade deficits are present value constraints satisfied in long term data abstract we test whether long term data from the u s and u k are consistent with the intertemporal government budget constraint and external borrowing constraint both individually and simultaneously a very strong test is provided by our focus on whether the present value constraints pvcs continue to hold despite unusual events such as wars that cause a structural break in the short run dynamic behavior of the variables we find that the pvcs hold over the whole sample period the data also indicate that the pvcs continue to hold following events that cause a structural break in the short run dynamics

the sustainability of india s current account this study conducts an investigation into the sustainability of the indian current account using data for 1950 onwards a necessary condition for current account sustainability is that exports and imports are cointegrated after testing for unit roots that allow for a structural break we employ parametric tests for cointegration based on johansen 1995 and saikkonen and lutkepohl 2000a b c as well as the nonparametric procedure proposed by breitung 2002 and breitung and taylor 2003 that does not assume linearity by employing these procedures recursively two distinct regimes are identified characterized by whether or not imports and exports are cointegrated the regime of noncointegration runs until the late 1990s and the second regime of cointegration is present after that this latter regime coincides with the liberalization of the indian economy

pharmaceutical advertising and medicare part d abstract we explore how and to what extent prescription drug insurance expansions affect incentives for pharmaceutical advertising when insurance expansions make markets more profitable firms respond by boosting advertising theory suggests this effect will be magnified in the least competitive drug classes where firms internalize a larger share of the benefits from advertising empirically we find that the implementation of part d coincides with a 14 19 increase in total advertising expenditures this effect is indeed concentrated in the least competitive drug classes the additional advertising raised utilization among non elderly patients outside the part d program by about 3 6 this is roughly half of the direct utilization effect of part d on elderly beneficiaries the results suggest the presence of considerable spillover effects from publicly subsidized prescription drug insurance on the utilization and welfare of consumers outside the program

when is price discrimination profitable we consider a general model of monopoly price discrimination and characterize the conditions under which price discrimination is and is not profitable we show that an important condition for profitable price discrimination is that the percentage change in surplus i e consumers total willingness to pay less the firm s costs associated with a product upgrade is increasing in consumers willingness to pay we refer to this as an increasing percentage differences condition and relate it to many known results in the marketing economics and operations management literatures

network externalities and the overprovision of quality by a monopolist 1 introduction the increasing relevance of high tech sectors such as telecommunication hardware software and audio video industries justifies the growing amount of attention devoted to the analysis of markets for goods that generate network externalities katz and shapiro 1985 1986 1994 farrell and saloner 1985 1986 an example taken by the audio video industry is the current discussion concerning the possibility of adopting a new standard for hi fi equipments dvd digital versatile disc or sacd super audio compact disc the network effect consists of the fact that the utility from purchasing equipment characterized by a given standard is positively related to the number of consumers who purchase a compatible equipment for two reasons the first is that the larger the number of users of a given standard the wider the range of software made available for that standard the second is that a larger network of users is usually associated with more efficient customer service and technical assistance if consumers are sensitive to the size of the market the producer s choice of the output level can be compared to the provision of product quality in that allowing consumers to access a larger network is essentially like providing them with a good characterized by a superior quality therefore the existence of network effects in markets where intrinsic quality is endogenous prompts a reassessment of the welfare implications of market power against either perfect competition or social planning the foregoing analysis has some relevant policy implications

on allocative distortions in problems of self selection this article considers the general structure of self selection models by imposing conditions which permit the ordering of agents by their preferences we provide a characterization of the distortions inherent in the sorting process

an equilibrium model of nominal bond prices with inflation output correlation and stochastic volatility a vector autoregressive var model is used to describe the joint dynamics of consumption growth and inflation the commonly used homoscedastic var is extended to allow for stochastic volatility driven by an unobservable autoregressive factor bond prices the conditional expectation of a function of these factors are approximated using tauchen s quadrature method we show that the mean variance and autocorrelation of yields is captured relatively well by the var sv model calibrated with inflation and consumption data the co dependents of consumption and inflation are shown to be important determinants for both real and nominal rates time variations in inflation volatility generate realistic variability of risk premia but unrealistically low average magnitudes copyright 1993 by ohio state university press

quality and congestion in environmental goods the road to the wangapeka abstract an increasing complaint heard among new zealand residents is that their enjoyment of local environmental resources is being diminished by increased congestion from foreign visitors this paper considers a model of vertical differentiation in which foreign high value and domestic low value consumers incur congestion costs in using a common resource we demonstrate that reducing quality in the face of increased foreign demand is optimal absent discriminatory prices but not otherwise we also consider the provision of multiple environmental goods and demonstrate that providing differential qualities may be optimal even if domestic consumers do not use the high quality resources at all

industry returns and the fisher effect we investigate the cross sectional relation between industry sorted stock returns and expected inflation and we find that this relation is linked to cyclical movements in industry output stock returns of noncyclical industries tend to covary positively with expected inflation while the reverse holds for cyclical industries from a theoretical perspective we describe a model that captures both i the cross sectional variation in these relations across industries and ii the negative and positive relation between stock returns and inflation at short and long horizons respectively the model is developed in an economic environment in which the spirit of the fisher model is preserved the fisher model states that expected nominal rates of return on assets should move one for one with expected inflation this belief is generally attributed to irving fisher s 1930 work on interest rates in particular to his view that the real and monetary sectors are causally independent in an apparent contradiction to the fisher hypothesis however it is a common empirical finding that stock returns are negatively related to both expected and realized inflation 1 this negative correlation is especially surprising for stocks which as claims against real assets should compensate for movements in inflation we provide two main contributions to the existing literature on the relation between stock returns and inflation the first contribution of the article is to provide a theoretical description of the cross sectional relation between stock returns and expected inflation we describe an asset pricing model that predicts cross sectional variation in the coefficients of expected inflation across various industry portfolios an interesting feature of the model is that it synthesizes some of the more palatable features of existing explanations of the negative relation between inflation and returns of special interest is the development of the model in a money neutral world so that the basic premise underlying fisher s work is maintained since most theoretical models of the

assessing the mean reversion behaviour of fiscal policy the perspective of asian countries this article investigates fiscal policy sustainability in 10 asian countries by adopting a battery of unit root tests univariate unit root tests reveal that the fiscal stance in these countries follows a nonstationary process while the opposite conclusion was drawn for the same dataset using the commonly employed panel unit root techniques by utilizing the series specific panel unit root test recently developed by breuer et al 2002 suradf seemingly unrelated regression augmented dickey fuller that allows testing for the presence of nonstationarity within individual cross sections of the panel we found that only cross sections four out of 10 countries in the panel are stationary this means that fiscal deficits in most asian countries are in violation of their intertemporal budget constraint and that the deficits are too large

inflation risk premia and the expectations hypothesis abstract we study the properties of the nominal and real risk premia of the term structure of interest rates we develop and solve the bond pricing implications of a structural monetary version of a real business cycle model with taxes and endogenous monetary policy we show the relation of this model with the class of essentially affine models that incorporate an endogenous state dependent market price of risk we characterize and estimate the inflation risk premium and find that over the last 40 years the ten year inflation risk premium has been has averaged 70 basis points it is time varying ranging from 20 to 140 basis points over the business cycle and its term structure is sharply upward sloping the inflation risk premium explains 23 42 of the time variation in the five ten year forward risk premium and it plays an important role in help explain deviations from the expectations hypothesis of interest rates

the emerging u s current account deficit in the 1980s a cointegration analysis this paper seeks to understand the recent history of u s external imbalances by identifying the long run tendency of the u s current account balance and investigating its behavior the procedure that is adopted is to estimate cointegrating regressions between u s exports and imports of goods and services estimates from cointegrating regressions between several measures of u s exports and imports show that up to about the end of 1983 the u s current account tended toward zero since that time there has been an apparent structural shift resulting in a long run tendency for a deficit in excess of 100 billion per year copyright 1992 by mit press

testing a present value model of the current account evidence from us and canadian time series abstract this paper presents a simple model of current account determination based upon the permanent income hypothesis of private consumption behavior under rational expectations the model employs a representative national agent who is forward looking and can borrow and lend at a constant world interest rate a present value relationship for the current account is derived and its implications are tested on post war data for the united states and canada testing is done using the framework developed by campbell and shiller 1987 which allows the forcing variables in the model to be difference rather than trend stationary our empirical results indicate the most stringent restrictions of the present value model are strongly rejected by the us and canadian data however less formal procedures suggest the consumption smoothing model has some ability to track the dynamic behavior of the us current account jel f32

mean reverting behavior of current account in asian countries abstract this paper adopted the series specific panel unit root test of breuer et al oxford bulletin of economics and statistics 64 2002 suradf 527 546 to test for the mean reverting behavior of current account for the panel of twelve asian countries the results illustrate that the current accounts in these countries are a mixture of i 0 and i 1 process and the commonly used panel root tests could lead to misleading inferences

searching for stationarity purchasing power parity under the current float abstract using panel data methods we investigate long run purchasing power parity by testing for unit roots in real exchange rates of industrial countries under the current float the evidence against the unit root hypothesis is stronger for larger than for smaller panels for monthly than for quarterly data and when the german mark rather than the united states dollar is used as the base currency while we find that accounting for serial correlation considerably weakens the evidence against the unit root null the results as a whole are consistent with long run purchasing power parity

quality choice and the coase problem abstract this paper studies the quality choice made by a durable good monopolist to alleviate the coase problem the durable good monopolist not only over supplies the quality but decreases the price per unit of quality so that the high demand consumers do not postpone their purchase

financial integration of east asian economies evidence from real interest parity in this article we investigate the financial linkages between the east asian economies with japan and the united states we test for long run real interest rate parity rip using an array of panel data techniques including recent techniques developed by breuer et al 2002 and carrion i silvestre et al 2005 this study offers two important results first the failure to account for structural breaks in the industrialized countries and asian emerging economies is likely to provide evidence of nonstationary series that are stationary second we found strong evidence that the parity condition holds in all the asian countries the failure of earlier studies to confirm mean reversion of real interest rate differential rid may reflect the choice of estimation testing procedure rather than any inherent deficiency in the rip

quality choice and vertical integration abstract we show that despite coordination in the quality level of the components that they provide independent vertically related disintegrated monopolists will provide products of lower quality level than a sole integrated monopolist further the integrated monopolist achieves higher market coverage higher consumer surplus and higher profits we establish these results for any distribution of preferences in the standard model of quality differentiation despite the lower quality we also show that for a wide class of cost functions price will be higher in a market of independent vertically related monopolists all results are the effects of the interaction of double marginalization occurring in the market of independent monopolists with the choice of quality