cosmopolitan consumers as a target group for segmentation for international companies the literature recommends directing segmentation efforts at customer characteristics rather than country characteristics consumers degree of cosmopolitan orientation has been suggested as a powerful segmentation base as this characteristic is expected to drive consumers tastes and preferences to advance research on this segmentation base this article offers a conceptualization of the consumer cosmopolitanism construct by 1 delineating its conceptual domain 2 highlighting its key dimensions namely open mindedness diversity appreciation and consumption transcending borders and 3 examining its links with theoretically relevant variables specifically consumer ethnocentrism and global consumption orientation based on the aforementioned conceptualization a consumer research specific and psychometrically sound measurement instrument the c cosmo scale is subsequently developed and tested in a series of complementary studies finally empirically based insights into the characteristics of cosmopolitan consumers are offered by 1 profiling them on consumption relevant variables innovativeness risk aversion susceptibility to normative influence consumer ethnocentrism and demographic characteristics 2 examining the link between consumer cosmopolitanism and willingness to buy foreign products and 3 developing an empirically based typology of cosmopolitan local consumers using a cluster analysis approach from a managerial perspective findings suggest that the identification and subsequent targeting of cosmopolitan consumers may well represent an appropriate strategy for internationally active companies

country of origin effects on product evaluations this article reviews the literature regarding the effect of country of origin on buyer evaluations of products the issue is important for countries especially resource poor developing countries that need to increase manufactured exports and for firms that source products in countries different from where sold marketing inferences are drawn and implications for future research are developed

implications of incomplete markets for international economies we develop a restriction that precludes implausibly high reward for risk in incomplete inter national economies to consider a theoretical problem that characterizes a lower bound on the covariance between stochastic discount factors sdfs subject to correct pricing the problem is analytically solvable and synthesizes domestic and foreign sdfs into spanned and unspanned components our novelty is that exchange rate growth need not equal the ratio of sdfs and that the sdf correlations are plausibly lowered exploiting the realities of cross country corre lations of macroeconomic quantities namely consumption wealth dividend growths and asset returns our empirical investigation refutes the speci cation of complete markets

assessing the impact of country of origin on product evaluations a new methodological perspective a new methodological approach for examining the impact of country of origin on product evaluations is proposed it takes the form of a multiattribute attitudinal model analyzed by means of a system

solving exchange rate puzzles with neither sticky prices nor trade costs we present a simple framework in which both the exchange rates disconnect and forward bias puzzles are simultaneously resolved the flexible price two country monetary model is extended to include a consumption externality with habit persistence habit persistence is modeled using campbell cochrane preferences with deep habits along the lines of the work of ravn schmitt grohe and uribe by deep habits we mean habits defined over goods rather than countries the model is simulated using the artificial economy methodology it offers a neo classical explanation of the meese rogoff puzzle and mimics the failure of fundamentals to explain nominal exchange rates in a linear setting finally the model naturally generates the negative slope in the standard forward market regression

asset prices and risk sharing in open economies this paper proposes a two good two country general equilibrium model with external habits and home biased preferences that addresses a number of international nance puzzles speci cally the model reconciles the high degree of international risk sharing implied by relatively smooth exchange rates with the modest cross country consumption growth correlations seen in the data resolving the brandt cochrane and santa clara 2006 puzzle furthermore the model matches the empirically observed low correlation between exchange

rare disasters and exchange rates we propose a new model of exchange rates which yields a theory of the forward premium puzzle our explanation combines two ingredients the possibility of rare economic disasters and an asset view of the exchange rate our model is frictionless has complete markets and works for an arbitrary number of countries in the model rare worldwide disasters can occur and affect each country s productivity each country s exposure to disaster risk varies over time according to a mean reverting process ri sky countries command high risk premia they feature a depreciated exchange rate and a high interest rate as their risk premium mean reverts their exchange rate appreciates therefore currencies of high interest rate countries appreciate on average to make the notion of disaster risk more implementable we show how options prices might in principle uncover latent disaster risk and help forecast exchange rate movements we then extend the framework to incorporate two factors a disaster risk factor and a business cycle factor we calibrate the model and obtain quantitatively realistic values for the volatility of the exchange rate the forward premium puzzle regression coefficients and near random walk exchange rate dynamics finally we solve a model of stock markets across countries which yields a series of predictions about the joint behavior of exchange rates bonds options and stocks across countries the evidence from the options market appears to be supportive of the model jel e43 e44 f31 g12 g15

modelling the take up of state support abstract we discuss the modelling of the take up of state support by going beyond the standard analysis and recognising that both the researcher and the welfare agency make errors is assessing entitlement we apply the discussion to an examination of the take up of supplementary benefits in britain by explicitly modelling the costs to taking up state support we can illustrate how these costs can dampen the welfare impact of state support and mitigate or aggravate welfare agency errors in assessing entitlement

interest rates and currency prices in a two country world abstract this paper is a theoretical study of the determination of prices interest rates and currency exchange rates set in an infinitely lived two country world which is subject both to stochastic endowment shocks and to monetary instability formulas are obtained for pricing all equity claims nominally denominated bonds and currencies and these formulas are related to earlier closely related results in the theories of money finance international trade

cultural industries in international business research progress and prospect cultural industries systems of organizations that produce and distribute cultural goods with substantive symbolic aesthetic or artistic value represent an important exciting and complex context that receives growing scholarly attention as the first review of management research on cultural industries this paper aims to provide a systematic synthesis of current research summarizing distinctive characteristics of cultural industries and highlighting research gaps we also illustrate how the unique nature dynamics and evolution of cultural industries provide opportunities to broaden international business theories in four research themes i e internationalization strategy cross border innovation social inclusion in the global economy and emerging market research

commodity trade and international risk sharing how much do financial markets matter abstract this paper evaluates the social gains from international risk sharing in some simple general equilibrium models with output uncertainty a simulation model calibrated to selected moments of u s and japanese data estimates the incremental loss from a ban on international portfolio diversification to be on the order of 0 20 percent of output per year even the theoretical gains from asset trade may disappear under alternative sets of assumptions on preferences and technology the paper argues that the small magnitude of potential trade gains may help explain the apparently inconsistent findings of empirical studies on the degree of international capital mobility

information and participation in social programs participation in social programs such as clubs and other social organizations results from a process in which an agent learns about the requirements benefits and likelihood of acceptance related to a program applies to be a participant and finally is accepted or rejected we propose a model of this participation process and provide an application of the model using data from a social program in mexico our empirical analysis illustrates that decision at each stage of the process are responsive to expectations about the decisions and outcomes at the subsequent stages and that knowledge about the program can have a significant impact on participation outcomes

brand popularity country image and market share an empirical study this study examines how brand popularity in conjunction with other marketing variables influences market share directly as well as indirectly by interacting with country related intangible assets or simply country image the results of our empirical analysis show that a competitive analysis without the recognition of country image would be misleading we found that country specific intangible assets exist and that they significantly interact with marketing variables differently for u s and japanese brands in the subcompact car market in the usa brand popularity and advertising were found to be key factors for intangible assets for both the u s and the japanese brands brand popularity was the most significant factor for market share in both the short run and the long run japanese firms direct investment fdi in the target country directly influenced market share only in the short run several important implications for international marketing are presented

a meta analysis of country of origin effects this note reports a quantitative analysis of the country of origin coo effect based on fifty two articles or papers containing sixty nine independent studies and 1 520 effect sizes an analysis of fifteen study characteristics revealed that country of origin effects are only somewhat generalizable using omega squared as the measure of effect size verbal product descriptions produced larger coo effect sizes than did the presence of an actual product likewise single cue studies produced larger coo effect sizes than did multiple cue studies and larger samples produced effect sizes that on average were greater than those produced by smaller samples the size of an observed coo effect was a function of whether the dependent variables was a quality reliability perception or a purchase intention the average effect size of quality reliability perceptions was 30 whereas the average effect size for purchase intentions was 19 purchase intentions were most susceptible to methodological artifacts than were quality reliability perceptions study findings selectively confirm and refute common beliefs regarding the impact of a country of origin cue on product perceptions and purchase intentions

the welfare cost of means testing pensioner participation in income support we estimate parametric and semi parametric binary choice models of benefit take up by british pensioners and use a revealed preference argument to infer the cash equivalent value of disutility arising from stigma or complexity of the claims process these implicit costs turn out to be relatively small averaging about 3 4 per week across income support recipients using the foster greer thorbecke measure of poverty among pensioners we find that allowing for implicit claim costs incurred by benefit recipients raises the measured degree of poverty by not more than 13 copyright 2007 john wiley sons ltd

poverty and household size the widely held view that larger families tend to be poorer in developing countries has influenced research and policy the scope for size economies in consumption cautions against this view we find that the correlation between poverty and size vanishes in pakistan when the size elasticity of the cost of living is about 0 6 this turns out to be the elasticity implied by a modified version of the food share method of setting scales by contrast some measures of child nutritional status indicate an elasticity of unity consideration of the weight attached to child versus adult welfare may help resolve the non robustness of demographic profiles of poverty excerpt

brand credibility and marketplace globalization the role of perceived brand globalness and localness consumers in western markets are increasingly critical towards globalization and re embrace local values companies thus must decide whether to continue to pursue global branding strategies and or rejuvenate local branding strategies to explore the implications of market globalization for consumer preferences we use signaling theory to investigate the role of perceived brand globalness pbg and brand localness pbl as signals of brand credibility related downstream effects and boundary conditions across two countries with differing levels of globalization in globalized markets pbg is a weaker signal of brand credibility than pbl whereas in globalizing markets the two signals are of equal importance

asset prices and exchange rates in this paper we study the implications of introducing demand shocks and trade in goods into an otherwise standard international asset pricing model trade in goods gives rise to an additional channel of international propagation through the terms of trade absent in traditional single good asset pricing models the inclusion of demand shocks helps overturn many unrealistic implications of existing international flnance models in which productivity shocks are the sole source of uncertainty our model generates a rich set of implications on how stock bond and foreign exchange markets co move we solve the model in closed form which yields a system of equations that can be readily estimated empirically our estimation validates the main predictions of the theory

an economic model of welfare stigma perhaps the most basic assumption of the economic theory of consumer demand is that more is better than less virtually all of the major propositions of consumer theory can in a certain sense be derived from the assumption that goods are good interestingly however this tenet seems to be violated by the behavior of many individuals in the low income population for many turn out to be eligible for a positive welfare benefit but do not in fact join the welfare rolls for example it has been estimated that in 1970 only about 69 percent of the families eligible for afdc aid to families with dependent children participated in the program see richard michel 1980 the corresponding percentage for afdc u the program for which families with an unemployed male are eligible was only 43 percent and the participation rate in the food stamp program was only 38 percent see maurice mcdonald 1977 this phenomenon has puzzled many investigators because such individuals do not locate on the boundaries of their budget sets consequently most investigators ignore the problem when studying the effects of welfare programs on behavior in this paper this seemingly irrational rejection of an increase in income is modeled as resulting from welfare stigma that is from disutility arising from participation in a welfare program per se 1 the existence of stigma has been amply documented in the sociological literature patrick horan and patricia austin 1974 lee rainwater 1979 where interviews of recipients have often uncovered feelings of lack of self respect and negative self characterizations from participation in welfare nevertheless this phenomenon has not been modeled and many questions consequently remain when is the disutility of participation strong enough to prevent participation shouldn t we expect individuals to weigh the disutility of participation against the potential benefit in their decisions what is the elasticity of participation with respect to the potential benefit also in a slightly different vein how are the work disincentives of welfare affected by stigma these questions have been given scant attention by economists yet they are crucial for our ability to predict the impact of various welfare programs on the lowincome population here these questions are addressed by modeling nonparticipation as a utility maximizing decision the model is developed and estimated for the afdc program 2 the model posits an individual utility function containing not just disposable income but

a bibliometric analysis of the global branding literature and a research agenda this study examines the citations used in the global branding literature gbl and evaluates the knowledge structure of this area of research to date our bibliometric analysis involves an examination of 120 global branding articles in business related research we employ multidimensional scaling to reveal a range of intellectual influences that have helped shape the gbl the foundation of knowledge in the gbl is uncovered by analyzing co citation data to identify important topical influences in the formation of global branding research the conceptual framework developed incorporates five areas with important implications for the future development of global branding as an area of inquiry these major research topics in the gbl are international branding strategy brand positioning brand country origin brand concept image and brand performance we leverage resource and capability based paradigms and use the five underpinning knowledge groups to propose an agenda for future research that fills existing gaps and offers the potential to advance and enrich the gbl

targeting the poor in mexico an evaluation of the selection of households into progresa abstract in this paper we conduct an evaluation of the targeting method used by health education and nutrition program progresa of mexico to identify beneficiary households we address two key questions a how well does progresa s targeting perform and b how does the program perform in terms of its impact on poverty alleviation relative to other feasible methods and transfer schemes the first question is accomplished by comparing progresa s method to an alternative selection method based on household consumption which is our preferred measure of welfare we employ the concepts of undercoverage and leakage and find that progresa selection method is more effective in identifying the extremely poor localities or households but less so when it comes to distinguishing among localities or households in the middle of the scale to address the second question we compare the potential impact of progresa on poverty alleviation against uniform transfers that involve no targeting at all targeting based on consumption and geographic targeting i e targeting at the locality level rather than at the household level we find that progresa s method of targeting households outperforms uniform coverage and targeting at the locality level in terms of reducing the poverty gap and severity of poverty indices even after taking into account the economic costs of targeting but the closeness of progresa s performance to what could be achieved by geographic targeting alone raises some serious questions about the costs and benefits associated with the practice of household targeting within poor localities

customer evaluation of products in a global market marketing scholars interest in the influence of source countries on product evaluations has intensified during the past twenty five years as this research tradition has evolved the literature has gradually gained more depth and sophistication nevertheless research in this area lacks a common conceptual framework furthermore research priorities with regard to the role of this area of inquiry within the broader field of consumer behavior marketing and general business decisions have not been made clear this article rationalizes the buying decision processes within the context of source country influences and offers a conceptual framework for further development in addition it links country level considerations to firm level decisionmaking thus providing a foundation for meaningful managerial decisions

a cross cultural study of interpersonal information exchange research conducted primarily in the united states has shown that interpersonal influence arising from opinion exchange behavior is an important factor in consumers product adoption and brand choice decisions an important managerial question in the international arena is whether information giving and seeking behaviors depend on culture in a study representing eleven nationalities we explore the role of culture in moderating consumers opinion exchange behavior results indicate that the cultural characteristics of power distance and uncertainty avoidance hofstede 1980 influence the focus of consumers product information search activities but not their tendencies to share product related opinions with others following earlier opinion leadership studies we find that individual characteristics such as product category interest and involvement are most indicative of active opinion leadership behavior

deception and misreporting in a social program we investigate empirically the extent of misreporting in a poverty alleviation program in which self reported information followed by a household visit is used to determine eligibility in the model we propose and estimate underreporting may be due to a deception motive and overreporting to an embarrassment motive we find that underreporting of goods and desirable home characteristics is widespread and that overreporting is common with respect to goods linked to social status larger program benefits encourage underreporting and discourage overreporting we also estimate the costs of lying and embarrassment for different goods and show that the embarrassment cost for lacking a good is proportional to the percentage of households who own the good jel d01 i32 i38 c25

determinants of demand for international tourist flows to turkey abstract this article describes the development and findings of a set of models used to identify the most important of the following selected variables influencing international tourist flows to turkey per capita income relative prices relative exchange rate promotional expenditure the turkish government has invested a substantial amount in promoting foreign tourism and special events eg political unrest the demand for travel was measured both by the number of tourists and by the total tourist expenditure data were obtained from secondary sources and analysis was by least squares multiple regression income price and exchange rate were found to be important factors but the impact of promotional expenditure was minimal

evaluating transfer programmes within a general equilibrium framework we develop a general equilibrium model for evaluating domestically financed transfer programmes and derive analytical expressions which provide a framework for combining results from a computable general equilibrium model with disaggregated household data we separate the welfare impact into three components i e redistribution reallocative and distortionary effects we show how these are subsumed within one parameter the cost of public funds using a mexican programme for illustration we show that substantial welfare gains result from a switch from universal food subsidies to targeted transfers reflecting both the improved targeting efficiency of the latter and the relaxation the trade off between equity and efficiency when designing tax systems in an attempt to maximise the welfare impact of government transfers on lowincome households many governments in both developed and developing countries have moved towards better targeted transfer programmes in developed countries these transfers mostly take the form of cash transfers or tax credits whereas in developing countries they take the form of either cash transfers e g in latin america or infra marginal subsidised food rations e g in south asia l when evaluating the economic impact of such transfers it is useful to separate these into direct and indirect income or welfare effects the direct income effects reflect the design of the programme i e the rules for targeting transfers these are often referred to as first round effects and are captured by partial equilibrium approaches to policy evaluation the indirect effects capture the second round income changes brought about by the impact of cash transfers and their financing on the level and composition of demand and supply most evaluations of social safety net programmes focus on the partial equilibrium evaluation of programme targeting outcomes even those that focus on the indirect impacts tend to concentrate on their efficiency implications with only a very limited analysis of income distribution outcomes and with little attempt to combine both the equity and efficiency dimensions this is all the more limiting given that the central objective of these programmes is to improve income distribution in this paper we focus primarily on the indirect income effects in particular we show how the results from a computable general equilibrium model can be combined with the information available in standard household surveys to

consumption and real exchange rates in dynamic economies with non traded goods abstract we examine the possibility that non traded goods may account for several striking features of international macroeconomic data large persistent deviations from purchasing power parity small correlations of aggregate consumption fluctuations across countries and substantial international real interest rate differentials a dynamic exchange economy is used to show that non traded goods in principle can account for each of these phenomena in the theory there is a close relation between fluctuations in consumption ratios and those in bilateral real exchange rates but we find little evidence for this relation in time series data for eight oecd countries

what can explain the apparent lack of international consumption risk sharing recent research in international business cycles finds that international consumption comovements do not match the risk sharing predictions of standard complete markets models in this paper i ask whether two different types of explanations can help explain this result 1 nonseparabilities between tradables and nontradable leisure or goods and 2 the effects of capital market restrictions on consumption risk sharing i find that risk sharing cannot be resolved by either explanation alone however when i allow for both nonseparabilities and certain market restrictions risk sharing among unrestricted countries cannot be rejected this evidence suggests that a combination of these two effects may be necessary to explain consumption risk sharing across countries

breaking free of a stereotype should a domestic brand pretend to be a foreign one consumers in many emerging markets exhibit a pronounced preference for western and global brands while domestic brands are often associated with a cheap but low quality image frustrated with the negative country of origin coo stereotype imposed on them many domestic brands from emerging markets follow a variety of approaches to disguise their coo and pretend to be foreign this paper studies the strategic aspects of this phenomenon we consider an experience good market where consumers learn about each brand s quality using its coo as a prior each firm can invest in product quality or coo dissociation the former generates better quality signals while the latter simply masks the firm s coo identity the analysis reveals a few main insights sharing a reputation leads to a common good problem where firms free ride on each other s quality investments as a high quality firm dissociates itself from the stereotype it ceases to contribute to the coo image but also prevents its low quality peers from free riding on it this incurs a negative direct effect but a positive strategic effect on the group image consequently a country s coo image may actually improve when more high quality brands shun their identities and pretend to be foreign in equilibrium coo image improves monotonically as firms become more efficient in providing quality however the prevalence of coo dissociation may first increase then decrease we discuss the implications of these results for emerging market brands as well as policy makers

economies of scale household size and the demand for food household scale economies are plausibly attributed to shared household public goods that make larger households better off at the same level of per capita resources larger households should therefore have higher per capita consumption of private goods such as food provided that they do not substitute too much toward the effectively cheaper public goods the evidence shows exactly the opposite data from rich and poor countries indicate that at constant per capita total expenditure the per capita demand for food decreases with household size and that it does so most in the poorest countries where substitution should be the least

modelling the take up of means tested benefits the case of housing benefits in the united kingdom official estimates of housing benefit take up rates suggest that up to two million families in the united kingdom ma y not be receiving the help with their housing costs to which they ar e entitled the authors interest in the take up of means tested bene fits is therefore motivated by two concerns the first is the governm ent revenue implications of a change to benefit entitlement levels t he second relates to the welfare of individuals who fail to claim the ir entitlement to benefit in this paper the authors investigate the relationship between the take up of means tested housing benefit in dividual socioeconomic characteristics and the level of entitlement copyright 1987 by royal economic society

international stock market equilibrium with heterogenous tastes this paper considers a dynamic real exchange model of international trade in commodities and equities given generalized cobb douglas intraperiod tastes that differ across countries we find a closed form solution with properties that are noteworthy not because they reverse our presumptions but because they exceed them a consumption based model of international equity investment might be expected to have the following properties i the optimal portfolios should reflect the international pattern of commodity expenditure ii a country s portfolio should be biased toward equities in commodities that attract a large share of its expenditure iii a country would short some equities given an appropriate structure of equity returns iv short sales of equities would allow the international economy to move toward the situation that would prevail if risk markets were complete in our model solution these properties take strong forms

brand origin recognition accuracy its antecedents and consumers cognitive limitations an ever growing literature has reported consumer bias toward national origins of products and has explored factors that moderate such bias researchers have assumed if only tacitly that consumers are knowledgeable of brand origins and that this knowledge is a significant influence that drives judgments of product quality brand attitudes and choice behavior in the marketplace using categorization theory and attribute diagnosticity as the theoretical foundation our research reveals that consumers actually have only modest knowledge of the national origins of brands and that american consumers proficiency at recognizing foreign brand origins is predicted by variables such as socioeconomic status past international travel foreign language skills and gender in the second of two studies we determined that brand origin recognition is based largely on consumers associations of brand names with languages that suggest country origins these studies ultimately lead us to conclude that past research has inflated the influence that country of origin information has on consumers product judgments and behavior and its importance in managerial and public policy decisions

equilibrium asset prices and exchange rates abstract in a two country two good world we construct an intertemporal international general equilibrium for two logarithmic representative agents financial markets are fully integrated and independently incomplete the equilibrium expected rate of change of the exchange rate increases with the differential of interest rates and the volatility of the domestic equity markets and decreases with the covariance between domestic and foreign equity markets the equilibrium volatility of the exchange rate is the sum of the volatilities due to idiosyncratic factors in the financial markets and a term that represents the difference of weights in the common international factor

risk sharing and counter cyclical variation in market correlations abstract i present a consumption based dynamic asset pricing model in which international market correlations vary counter cyclically over time the driving force in the model is the time varying effective risk aversion induced by external habit formation market returns are driven by fundamental outputs and discount rates when risk aversion is high the effect of discount rates on market returns rises with the market price of risk to the extent that countries share risk the cross country correlation of discount rates exceeds the cross country correlation of fundamental outputs in bad times market correlations rise as returns are mostly driven by discount rates thus consistent with the empirical evidence periods of high risk aversion are associated with high market correlations and high market volatility after calibration my model is consistent with the observed variation in market correlations as well as other features of asset prices including the equity premium and market volatility

modelling hierarchical consumer preferences an application to global food markets in the literature considerable attention has been devoted to the relationship between consumer preference and a product s country of origin papadopoulos 1993 and it is well established that the latter has an influence on quality perceptions bilkey and nes 1982 whilst empirical studies have tended to concentrate on manufactured goods there is evidence that food products exhibit strong countryof origin characteristics bonnet and simioni 2001 scarpa et al 2001 van der lans et al 2001 and furthermore that consumers typically favour domestic food varieties over foreign substitutes quagrainie et al 1998 unterschultz et al 1998 with international trade in food expanding rapidly in global markets and consumers facing an unprecedented level of variety product country images are assuming greater significance skaggs et al 1996 more importantly policy initiatives to promote regional foods and product awareness within europe peri and gaeta 1999 coupled with the growing antiglobalization sentiments of some sections of society are likely to have implications for international trade by reinforcing consumer preference for domestically produced varieties and strengthening any preference barrier effect much of the recent literature on quantitative analysis of international trade is set in the context of general equilibrium accordingly against a background of continuing liberalization of world markets and with further reforms anticipated under wto world trade organization negotiations a method of modelling endogenous hierarchical ranked consumer preferences is reported based on region of origin within a computable general equilibrium cge framework this extends the treatment of endogenous product differentiation in cge models and adds an extra dimension to the exogenous region of origin approach maintained under the commonly adopted armington assumption the first part of the paper reports technical implementation of patriotic preference in imperfectly competitive food markets this is then followed by an empirical illustration in which the impact on trade flows is isolated

to target or not to target the costs benefits and impacts of indicator based targeting abstract this paper assesses the cost effectiveness of indicator based targeting using household survey data from malawi we examine whether an indicator based system is more target and cost efficient in reaching the poor than universal systems and the currently used mechanisms for targeting agricultural subsidies in the country estimation results suggest that targeting malawi s poor and smallholder farmers with indicator based systems may be worth the extra effort and may improve program targeting and cost efficiency even though under the proposed system administrative costs increase simulation results indicate that it does not make a targeted program cost ineffective more importantly the proposed system appears to be more target and cost efficient than the 2000 2001 targeted input program tip and the 2006 2007 agricultural input support program aisp both of which were administered through community based targeting systems while tip and aisp transferred about 50 of total transfer under the proposed system about 73 of transfers are delivered to the poor and smallholder farmers additionally the costs of leakage to the non poor are cut by more than 50 under the proposed system we conclude from the above findings that the newly proposed system can potentially improve the targeting and cost efficiency of malawi s development programs however such improvements depend on actual implementation of targeted programs a critical issue that should not be set aside

celebrity endorsements in emerging markets align endorsers with brands or with consumers this paper investigates country of origin co effects as they relate to celebrity endorsements across multiple studies in emerging markets the authors show that consumers evaluations depend on the match between 1 celebrity co and consumer co termed consumer co fit and 2 celebrity co and brand co termed brand co fit if there is a trade off between consumer co fit and brand co fit the authors identify contingencies e g ethnocentrism levels that determine which type of co fit leads to higher evaluations furthermore the authors develop prescriptions for segmentation in emerging markets and specify when these prescriptions differ from those prescribed by prior international business research

targeting performance under self selection and administrative targeting methods abstract we evaluate the contributions of self selection and administrative targeting to program targeting performance using unique household survey data collected for the evaluation of a mexican social program that has acted as a regional prototype both forms of targeting improve targeting performance but administrative selection based on proxy means testing plays a crucial role in reducing total program coverage to meet a budget constraint while maintaining high coverage among the lowest income groups its importance is reinforced when existing knowledge barriers to participation are addressed reflecting the high application rates among higher income groups conditional on knowledge differentiating transfers based on household demographics also substantially improves targeting performance reflecting the linking of transfers to the number of children although expansion of the program to reduce the remaining undercoverage is likely to come at the expense of targeting performance this trade off can

the time variation of risk and return in foreign exchange markets a general equilibrium perspective this article successively introduces variable velocity durability and habit persistence in a standard two country general equilibrium model and explores their effects on the variability of exchange rate changes forward premiums and the foreign exchange risk premium a new feature of the model is that agents make decisions at a weekly frequency and face conditionally heteroskedastic shocks nevertheless even the most complex model fails to deliver sufficiently variable risk premiums without causing forward premiums and exchange rates to be excessively variable unlike previous models the model can roughly match the persistence of forward premiums article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

reputational comparative advantage and multinational enterprise 1 introduction when cultivating a new export market or attempting to expand its share of an existing market an exporter is likely to find that it has been preceded by its reputation minus a readily identifiable brand name quality reputation may solely reflect the country of origin for example when consumers are presented with a large amount of complex product information they may use the country of origin as a heuristic in forming product impressions without considering other product attributes 1 in this article i show that this heuristic decision making process can affect a firm s quality decision and can therefore become self fulfilling hence any bias that consumers have may be well founded however it is only correct because firms respond rationally to it colombia s garment industry provides an interesting example of a self fulfilling unfavorable quality reputation in international trade as described by morawetz 1981 a single colombian garment firm took a contract for 50 000 men s suits that was beyond its capability the poor quality result so tarnished the american importer s name that other high quality importers become wary of colombian sewn garments with the payoff to high quality production reduced colombian garment firms then concentrated on low quality markets and the newly found unfavorable reputation was justified in the model constructed here consumers see only a noisy signal of the product s quality at the time of purchase therefore their posterior beliefs are based on this noisy signal and the country of origin reputations as will be made clear higher quality firms benefit more from an increase in their country s reputation so that a better reputation generates an increase in the percentage of high quality firms in this way the reputation becomes self fulfilling and ex ante identical countries can be correctly perceived as differing in their percentage of high quality producers i next introduce an economy with two sectors one sector produces more complex goods where high quality is not easily verified and is more essential to the product s performance these may be technology intensive products or they may consist of the design and marketing of the goods produced in the other sector in particular high quality production costs and the consumer s value for high quality goods is greater in this sector i show that this sector becomes more profitable as the country of origin reputation increases hence if one country s equilibrium reputation is low and the other country s equilibrium reputation is high then the pattern of specialization and international trade can be determined solely by reputational comparative advantage 2 finally i show that reputational comparative advantage can overshadow a small technological comparative disadvantage in determining the pattern of international trade given this pattern of trade and specialization based on reputational comparative advantage a high reputation firm may expend resources to establish a multinational enterprise mne in the low reputation country for example many mne products require the differing specializations of both the high and low reputation countries although differing in motivation this result accords well with more traditional models of vertical mne 3 however this impetus for mne as well as its more traditional counterparts does not explain why the mne would choose foreign direct investment fdi over a less costly licensing arrangement 4 the quality uncertainty in this model along with the difference in equilibrium reputations allows us to address this question in particular appropriable reputational rents are generated by fdi when the high reputation parent firm procures and internalizes production with a low reputation host firm this fdi breaks the low reputation equilibrium of the host firm and generates reputational rents

asset prices and real exchange rates with deep habits i introduce an external habit for each consumption good known as deep habits into an otherwise standard international equilibrium model with multiple consumption goods and multiple countries i show that deep habits coupled with consumption home bias account for a wide range of asset pricing and exchange rate moments calibrated to a set of ten countries the model reproduces the cross sectional evidence on currency risk premiums when sorting on interest rates interest rate volatility innovations to global exchange rate volatility and value hence the model provides an equilibrium interpretation of these empirical regularities

on the asset market view of exchange rates if the asset market is complete then the difference between foreign and domestic agents log intertemporal marginal rates of substitution imrss equals the log change in the real exchange rate this equation is frequently used to argue that changes in real exchange rates reflect differences between agents required compensation for exposure to asset return uncertainty we show that the relative returns on frictionlessly traded assets are only reflected in the common component of agents imrss not in differences instead when this equation does offer insights frictions in the goods market are the source of economic distinction between agents

pricing to habits and the law of one price this paper proposes a novel international transmission mechanism based on the assumption of deep habits the term deep habits stands for a preference specification according to which consumers form habits on a good by good basis under deep habits firms face more elastic demand functions in markets where nonhabitual demand is high relative to habitual demand creating an incentive to price discriminate we refer to this type of price discrimination as pricing to habits in the presence of pricing to habits innovations to domestic aggregate demand induce a decline in markups in the domestic country but not abroad leading to a departure from the law of one price in this way the proposed pricing to habit mechanism can explain the observation that prices of the same good across countries expressed in the same currency vary over the business cycle furthermore it can account for the empirical fact that in response to a positive domestic demand shock such as an increase in government spending the real exchange rate depreciates domestic consumption expands and the trade balance deteriorates

acting on anger cultural value moderators of the effects of consumer animosity the recent rise in protectionism and demonization of foreign countries has increased the risk of brands falling victim to the negative effects of consumer animosity or strong negative affect directed at a foreign country we investigate the role of cultural values as moderating the relationship between consumer animosity and willingness to buy the combined results of a meta analysis and six experiments in the us and china offer strong evidence that collectivism and long term orientation mitigate the negative effects of consumer animosity and support the contention that animosity s effect on willingness to buy is much stronger than on product judgments

finding the poor vs measuring their poverty exploring the drivers of targeting effectiveness in indonesia centralized targeting registries are increasingly used to allocate social assistance benefits in developing countries there are two key design issues that matter for targeting accuracy i which households to survey for inclusion in the registry and ii how to rank surveyed households the authors attempt to identify their relative importance by evaluating indonesia s unified database for social protection programs udb among the largest targeting registries in the world used to provide social assistance to over 25 million households linking administrative data with an independent household survey they find that the udb system is more progressive than previous program specific targeting approaches however simulating an alternative targeting system based on enumerating all households they find a one third reduction in undercoverage of the poor compared to focusing on households registered in the udb overall there are large gains in targeting performance from improving the initial registration stage relative to the ranking stage

us versus them or us versus everyone delineating consumer aversion to foreign goods this paper presents evidence that international animosity and consumer ethnocentrism are distinct constructs that play different roles depending on the set of products available to consumers results show that animosity toward a foreign nation is related to choices between foreign goods while consumer ethnocentrism is related to choices between domestic and foreign goods further the study finds animosity effects even though anger levels are generally low thus extending the boundaries of the animosity model of foreign purchase the study focuses on u s consumer views of japan and japanese products implications for decisions concerning global versus local branding strategies are discussed

conditional cash transfers the case of progresa oportunidades conditional cash transfer cct programs innovate by conditioning transfers to poor families on investments in the human capital of children and other family members the mexican cct program progresa oportunidades began in 1997 and has served as a model for many of the now over sixty countries with ccts around the world in large part due to its initial evaluation with an experimental design and numerous follow up studies this article reviews the literature on the development evaluation and findings of progresa oportunidades summarizing what is known about program effects taking into account corrections for multiple hypothesis testing

consumer animosity in the global value chain the effect of international production shifts on willingness to purchase hybrid products the escalation of international offshoring and outsourcing in recent years has resulted in a proliferation of hybrid products for the typical multinational enterprise with multiple country affiliations for branding design manufacture assembly and parts sourcing however little has been written regarding the impact of consumer animosity on such hybrid activities or the role of universal values in a hybrid production animosity model in this paper we extend the consumer animosity literature to a firm s global integration activities for hybrid products we posit that consumers willingness to purchase wtp a complex hybrid product is negatively affected by partial production shifts to an animosity evoking country and that self reported animosity toward the country predicts lower wtp above and beyond consumer ethnocentrism and perceived product quality in addition we hypothesize a negative relationship between conservation values and wtp hybrid foreign products and a positive relationship between openness values and wtp hybrid foreign products a study of 319 us consumers revealed consistent support for these hypotheses with the exception of the conservation values wtp relationship practical implications and future research directions are discussed

country size currency unions and international asset returns differences in real interest rates across developed economies are puzzlingly large and persistent i propose a simple explanation bonds issued in the currencies of larger economies are expensive because they insure against shocks that affect a larger fraction of the world economy i show that indeed differences in the size of economies explain a large fraction of the cross sectional variation in currency returns the data also support additional implications of the model the introduction of a currency union lowers interest rates in participating countries and stocks in the nontraded sector of larger economies pay lower expected returns

leaving the safety net an analysis of dropouts in an urban conditional cash transfer program summary in poverty reduction programs a significant number of beneficiaries change program status an analysis of oportunidades data from urban mexico shows that beneficiaries that drop out for behavioral and administrative reasons are those who are marginally eligible improving targeting through minimizing errors of inclusion results also indicate that the very poorest recipients particularly in large urban areas and less marginal communities are more likely to drop out increasing the errors of omission households deemed ineligible through a recertification process were those that had obtained basic durables or changed their demographic composition implying that oportunidades retargeting is based on limited information

why are exchange rates so smooth a household finance explanation abstract empirical moments of asset prices and exchange rates imply that pricing kernels are almost perfectly correlated across countries otherwise observed real exchange rates would be too smooth for high sharpe ratios however the cross country correlation among macro fundamentals is weak we reconcile these facts in a two country stochastic growth model with heterogeneous households and a home bias in consumption in our model only a small fraction of households trade domestic and foreign equities we show that this mechanism can quantitatively account for the smoothness of exchange rates in the presence of volatile pricing kernels and weakly correlated macro fundamentals

the regressive demands of demand driven development despite their explicit focus on reaching the poor many community driven development cdd projects have been found to be only mildly pro poor in their funding allocations this paper presents evidence of an explanation that has been overlooked in the cdd literature to date the requirement that beneficiaries must apply for projects in order to receive support the authors first examine data on the universe of project applications and funding under tanzania s flagship cdd program tanzania s social action fund and then use a census of 100 program villages to examine the determinants of both program awareness and program participation at the household level the data paint a consistent picture at both levels wealth access to information and political capital are important correlates of the ability to navigate the application process successfully the centrally dictated features of this decentralized program appear to be the most effective mechanisms in directing funds to the poor the results suggest that unless demand driven projects can develop ways of soliciting engagement from a broader cross section of the population they are unlikely to achieve truly progressive targeting