are ghettos good or bad spatial separation of racial and ethnic groups may theoretically have positive or negative effects on the economic performance of those groups we examine the effects of segregation on outcomes for blacks in schooling employment and single parenthood we find that blacks in more segregated areas have significantly worse outcomes than blacks in less segregated areas we control for the endogeneity of location choice using instruments based on political factors topographical features and residence before adulthood a one standard deviation decrease in segregation would eliminate one third of the black white differences in most of our outcomes

does the preference reversal phenomenon necessarily contradict the independence axiom one of the most puzzling paradoxes in decision theory is the preference reversal phenomenon this phenomenon seems to contradict the transitivity axiom for a long time one of the cornerstones of utility theory this paradox is established whenever a decision maker prefers lottery x to lottery y but is willing to put a lower selling price on x than on y such experiments first reported by harold lindman 1971 and sarah lichtenstein and paul slovic 1971 were repeated by david grether and charles plott 1979 werner pommerehne et al 1982 and robert reilly 1982 although the later researchers improved the mechanism through which the selling price emerges they all found systematic reversals a new approach to this problem was developed by charles holt 1986 and edi karni and zvi safra 1987 from two different starting points these authors showed that the preference reversal phenomenon does not necessarily prove a violation of the transitivity axiom as it may contradict the independence axiom this implies that people do not maximize expected utility but in that case the preference reversal phenomenon becomes just another evidence against expected utility theory but not against the transitivity axiom these results have their own disadvantages although the independence axiom is not as fundamental as transitivity it is nevertheless very appealing on normative grounds of course the preference reversal phenomenon necessarily contradicts at least one of the assumptions of expected utility theory but empirical evidence shows that despite its normative appeal violations of the reduction of compound lotteries axiom may happen see for example joshua ronen 1971 and doug snowball and clif brown 1979 in this paper i therefore suggest a decision mechanism for the preference reversals lotteries which is transitive and satisfies the independence axiom but not the reduction axiom

ethnicity neighborhoods and human capital externalities the socioeconomic performance of today s workers depends not only on parental skills but also on the average skills of the ethnic group in the parents generation or ethnic capital this paper investigates the link between the ethnic externality and ethnic neighborhoods the evidence indicates that residential segregation and the external effect of ethnicity are linked partly because ethnic capital summarizes the socioeconomic background of the neighborhood where the children were raised ethnicity has an external effect even among persons who grow up in the same neighborhood when children are exposed frequently to persons who share the same ethnic background copyright 1995 by american economic association

performance comparisons and dynamic incentives it is well known that comparative performance information cpi can enhance efficiency in static principal agent relationships by improving the trade off between insurance and incentives in the design of explicit contracts in dynamic settings however there may be implicit as well as explicit incentives for example managerial career concerns and the ratchet effect in regulation we show that the dynamic effects of cpi on implicit incentives can either reinforce or oppose the familiar static insurance effect and in either case can be more important for efficiency the overall welfare effects of cpi are thus ambiguous and can be characterized in terms of the underlying information structure

racial discrimination in the labor market theory and empirics we review theories of race discrimination in the labor market taste based models can generate wage and unemployment duration differentials when combined with either random or directed search even when strong prejudice is not widespread but no existing model explains the unemployment rate differential models of statistical discrimination based on differential observability of productivity across races can explain the pattern and magnitudes of wage differentials but do not address employment and unemployment at their current state of development models of statistical discrimination based on rational stereotypes have little empirical content it is plausible that models combining elements of the search models with statistical discrimination could fit the data we suggest possible avenues to be pursued and comment briefly on the implication of existing theory for public policy jel j15 j31 j64 j71

residential segregation discrimination and african american theater entry during jim crow abstract we examine the effect of residential segregation on the entry of movie theaters serving african american customers in the 1950s which provided an alternative to the segregated theaters of the jim crow era consistent with preference externalities in racial and ethnic enclaves we find that greater residential segregation was associated with more african american theater entry estimates from a model of firm entry indicate that residential segregation increased the variable profits of african american movie theaters reducing the market size required for theater entry by 13 3 percent for a one standard deviation increase in segregation we also provide evidence that racial bias increased both variable profits and fixed costs and on net reduced african american theater entry an interpretation consistent with this finding is that racial animus forced black customers toward segregated accommodations while also limiting access to key inputs for potential entrants

reduction of compound lotteries with objective probabilities theory and evidence abstract the reduction of compound lotteries axiom rocl has assumed a central role in the evaluation of behavior toward risk and uncertainty we present experimental evidence on its validity in the domain of objective probabilities our battery of lottery pairs includes simple one stage lotteries two stages compound lotteries and their actuarially equivalent one stage lotteries we find violations of rocl and that behavior is better characterized by a source dependent version of the rank dependent utility model rather than expected utility theory since we use the popular 1 in k random lottery incentive mechanism payment procedure in our main test our experiment explicitly recognizes the impact that this payment procedure may have on preferences thus we also collect data using the 1 in 1 payment procedure we do not infer any violations of rocl when subjects are only given one decision to make these results are supported by both structural estimation of latent preferences as well as non parametric analysis of choice patterns the random lottery incentive mechanism used as payment protocol itself induces an additional layer of compounding by design that might create confounds in tests of rocl therefore we provide a word of caution for experimenters interested in studying rocl for other purposes such as the relationship between ambiguity attitudes and attitudes toward compound lotteries to carefully think about the design to study rocl payment protocols and their interaction with the preferences being elicited

forward induction in the battle of the sexes games this paper provides experimental evidence on forward induction as a refinement criterion in the basic extensive form one of the two players chooses to play a battle of the sexes game or to receive a certain payoff according to forward induction choosing to play the game is a signal about intended action though the presence of the outside option changes play we find only limited support for the forward induction hypothesis the effects of the outside option also reflect the creation of a focal point through the asymmetry created by offering the outside option to one of the two players jel c72

productivity gains from geographic concentration of human capital evidence from the cities abstract based on recent theoretical developments the argument is made that the average level of human capital is a local public good cities with higher average levels of human capital should therefore have higher wages and higher land rents after conditioning on the characteristics of individual workers and dwellings this prediction is supported by data for standard metropolitan statistical areas smsas in the united states where the smsa average levels of formal education and work experience are used as proxies for the average level of human capital the alternative explanations of omitted smsa variables and self selection are evaluated an estimate of the effect of an additional year of average education on total factor productivity is computed

moving out but not up economic outcomes in the great migration the migration of millions of southerners out of the south between 1910 and 1970 is largely attributed to economic and social push factors in the south combined with pull factors in other regions o

the housing market impact of state level anti discrimination laws 1960 1970 abstract this paper measures the housing market impact of state level anti discrimination laws in the 1960s using household level and census tract data state fair housing laws were the direct antecedents of the federal fair housing act of 1968 and policy variation across states facilitates estimates of the laws impact during the 1960s blacks housing market outcomes improved relative to whites and the proportion of exclusively white census tracts declined markedly but there is little evidence that the fair housing laws contributed to those changes there is some evidence that black renters may have benefited from the laws but the bulk of the evidence suggests insignificant effects on blacks housing market outcomes the level of residential segregation and the value of property in predominantly black neighborhoods

eliciting subjective probabilities with binary lotteries abstract we evaluate a binary lottery procedure for inducing risk neutral behavior in a subjective belief elicitation task prior research has shown this procedure to robustly induce risk neutrality when subjects are given a single risk task defined over objective probabilities drawing a sample from the same subject population we find evidence that the binary lottery procedure also induces linear utility in a subjective probability elicitation task using the quadratic scoring rule we also show that the binary lottery procedure can induce direct revelation of subjective probabilities in subjects with popular non expected utility preference representations that satisfy weak conditions

experimental economics accounting and society in memory of john dickhaut abstract this volume consists of papers presented at a conference in memory of john dickhaut the conference sponsored by the economic science institute at chapman university focused on four areas of john s research interests during his career accounting and society methodology in experimental economics neural economics and trust and reciprocity all of the papers make novel interesting contributions to the study of human behavior in economic institutions and should interest readers in a range of fields including accounting anthropology economics finance neurology and psychology

migration with endogenous moving costs we study a dynamic model of labor migration in which moving costs decrease with the number of migrants already settled in the destination this assumption is supported by sociological studies of migrant networks with endogenous moving costs migration occurs gradually over time once it starts it develops momentum and migratory flows may increase even as wage differentials narrow in addition migration tends to follow geographical channels and low moving cost individuals migrate first these patterns are consistent with historical evidence from the great black migration of 1915 1960 in the united states much of which cannot be reconciled with existing migration models excerpt

trade wars trade negotiations and applied game theory what is the value of trade negotiations quantitative measures of the value of trade liberalisation generally ignore the strategic aspects of protection policy the traditional approach is to compare welfare levels under the existing structure of protection with welfare levels under some alternative structure of protection such as unilateral or multilateral free trade we add two additional questions first in a non cooperative context are either of these points of comparison consistent with countries adopting best response policies given the policies of other countries second in the context of a cooperative negotiation are either of these points of comparison consistent with the outcome that meets certain plausible criteria for a bargaining process if the answer to either of these questions is no then the traditional approach provides at best an incomplete answer to the original question and could provide a misleading answer a simple example illustrates our basic point consider the game in table i this is a non cooperative game between the united states and ec in which each agent has just two pure strategies to do nothing and keep k the existing structure of protection in place or to abolish a trade barriers on imports from the other agent only the payoffs shown are the annual welfare impact relative to the status quo as measured by the equivalent variation ev in income in billions of i973 u s dollars the values shown are taken from the simulation results of brown and whalley i980 table i 4 p 864 what is the best response of the united states in this context if the ec decides to keep its protection structure the united states does better by also keeping its protection structure intact in other words given that the ec plays k it is a best response for the united states to also play k thus the traditional approach would imply that the united states gains from protection in this case however what is the best response of the united states if the ec decides to abolish its protection structure in this instance the united states does best by also abolishing its protection structure the point here is simply that the welfare cost of protection to the united states depends on what the ec does without saying something about what the ec will do one cannot answer our question vis a vis the united states as it happens in this particular game we

the pursuit of opportunity explaining selective black migration abstract this paper examines the destination choices of black migrants during the great migration as previous research has shown educated blacks were more likely to relocate to the north in the pre world war ii era this analysis shows that this tendency can be attributed to the better educated migrants ability to finance transportation costs greater responsiveness to intercity wage differentials and stronger distaste for southern disamenities after 1940 the destination choice gap closed largely because migrant responses to wage differentials and valuation of southern disamenities changed these changes are observed both in the population at large and within birth year cohorts

crime and social interactions the high variance of crime rates across time and space is one of the oldest puzzles in the social sciences this variance appears too high to be explained by changes in the exogenous costs and benefits of crime we present a model where social interactions create enough covariance across individuals to explain the high cross city variance of crime rates this model provides an index of social interactions which suggests that the amount of social interactions is highest in petty crimes moderate in more serious crimes and almost negligible in murder and rape

human capital discrimination and the gender wage gap in bangladesh summary this paper investigates changes in the gender wage gap in bangladesh over the period 1999 2009 the gap in average wages between men and women decreased by 31 over this period this paper shows that a key driver of this change was an improvement in female educational qualifications it also demonstrates that the gender wage gap across the wage distribution narrowed much more at the lower end of the wage distribution than at the upper end it attributes this mainly to a decline in discrimination against women implications for policies aimed at more equal access to education and enforcement of equal pay legislation in bangladesh are also identified

inducing risk neutral preferences with binary lotteries a reconsideration abstract we evaluate the binary lottery procedure for inducing risk neutral behavior we strip the experimental implementation down to bare bones taking care to avoid any potentially confounding assumptions about behavior having to be made in particular our evaluation does not rely on the assumed validity of any strategic equilibrium behavior or even the customary independence axiom we show that subjects sampled from our population are generally risk averse when lotteries are defined over monetary outcomes and that the binary lottery procedure does indeed induce a statistically significant shift toward risk neutrality this striking result generalizes to the case in which subjects make several lottery choices and one is selected for payment

trucking deregulation and the black white wage gap the only previous study of the effect of product market deregulation on the black white wage gap found that this gap in the trucking industry declined after trucking deregulation in 1978 that study did not however estimate the separate effects of deregulation on union and nonunion members or on black and white drivers this study does so through an analysis of individual worker information from the march and may cps files for the years 1973 through 1988 the authors find that deregulation is associated with significantly declining black white wage gaps among both union and nonunion drivers this wage pattern is attributable to significant reductions in the real wages of white drivers the real wages of black drivers did not change with deregulation

race segregation and postal employment new evidence on spatial mismatch abstract the spatial mismatch hypothesis posits that employment decentralization isolated urban blacks from work opportunities this paper focuses on one large employer that has remained in the central city over the twentieth century the u s postal service we find that blacks substitute towards postal work as other employment opportunities leave the city circa 1960 the response is particularly strong in segregated areas where black neighborhoods are clustered near the central business district furthermore this pattern only holds for non mail carriers many of whom work in central processing facilities more recently the relationship between black postal employment and segregation has declined suggesting that spatial mismatch has become less important over time

residential segregation and socioeconomic outcomes when did ghettos go bad abstract cutler and glaeser 1997 show that urban residential segregation has a strong adverse effect on labor market and social outcomes of young african americans relative to whites we show that this effect is a fairly recent historical phenomenon there is little evidence of such an effect from 1940 to 1970 rather it emerged between 1970 and 1980 and it grew stronger during the 1980s

disentangling the incentive and entrenchment effects of large shareholdings this article disentangles the incentive and entrenchment effects of large ownership using data for 1 301 publicly traded corporations in eight east asian economies we find that firm value increases with the cash flow ownership of the largest shareholder consistent with a positive incentive effect but firm value falls when the control rights of the largest shareholder exceed its cash flow ownership consistent with an entrenchment effect given that concentrated corporate ownership is predominant in most countries these findings have relevance for corporate governance across the world

racial and ethnic differences in wealth in the health and retirement study this paper examines wealth data in the health and retirement study hrs in comparison with asset data in other major surveys the quality of hrs asset data is high missing asset data does remain a problem however to which future hrs analysts must remain sensitive evidence is presented showing that it is no accident that asset data are missing and solutions for imputing missing data are developed finally racial and ethnic wealth disparities are large these minority wealth disparities are due in part to differential inheritances and desired bequests as inequities perpetuate themselves across generations the disparities are also due to lower minority incomes poorer health and an excessively narrow definition of wealth that excludes social security and employer pensions authors

an investigation into sexual orientation discrimination as an explanation for wage differences this study explores the effects of sexual orientation on earnings it is found that ceteris paribus men living with male partners tend to earn less than other men and women living with female partners tend to earn more than other women these earnings differentials tend to vary by region they also vary by education and occupation for men and with the presence of minor children for women in addition the age earnings profiles of women living with female partners tend to be higher flatter and less concave than those of other women

controlling preferences for lotteries on units of experimental exchange in an experimental setting when outcomes are stochastically related to actions predictions of equilibrium behavior depend not only on the participants preference orderings of outcomes but also on their orderings of lotteries on outcomes as well we introduce and test a reward structure that can be utilized in any experimental setting to allow the experimenter to decree beforehand the subjects preferences for lotteries on experimental outcomes we show analytically that the proposed reward structure can induce subjects to behave as if they have the decreed preference function defined on experimental outcomes empirical tests using two different choice settings provide evidence to support this ability to control preferences

the effect on black white wage differences of differences in the quantity and quality of education using data from the national longitudinal survey of youth for the years 1979 88 the author examines the extent to which black white differences in educational attainment educational quality and unmeasured individual ability can explain black white wage differences an analysis that corrects for both selectivity and ability biases inherent in estimating the education wage relationship shows that the main source of the black white wage differential is the racial difference in the quality rather than quantity of schooling in fact the author concludes closing the racial gap in the basic skills learned in school could reduce the wage differential by two thirds

self selection and the earnings of immigrants this paper analyzes the way in which the earnings of the immigrant population may be expected to differ from the earnings of the native population because of the endogeneity of the decision to migrate the empirical study shows that differences in the u s earnings of immigrants with the same measured skills but from different home countries are attributable to variations in political and economic conditions in the countries of origin at the time of migration excerpt

the long reach of cotton in the us south tenant farming mechanization and low skill manufacturing abstract this paper examines the long run impact of cotton agriculture on local development in the us south focusing on a novel aspect of structural change exploiting climate based variation in cotton production i show that cotton specialization in the late 19th century had a negative impact on local development that lasts through 2010 this negative relationship however only became evident in the second half of the 20th century i argue that the change was caused by the mechanization of cotton production which began in the 1950s after the mechanization local manufacturing absorbed displaced cotton tenants with low human capital in response to the inflow of cotton tenants labor productivity in manufacturing began to decline and the effects persisted in the long run the persistent decline in manufacturing productivity is explained by directed technical change that reduced demand for skills in manufacturing these results indicate that depending on the agricultural background structural change can negatively affect the evolution of technology and productivity in the industrial sector

a more robust definition of subjective probability the goal of choice theoretic derivations of subjective probability is to separate a decisionmaker s underlying beliefs subjective probabilities of events from their preferences attitudes toward risk classical derivations have all relied upon some form of the marschak samuelson independence axiom or the savage sure thing principle which imply that preferences over lotteries conform to the expected utility hypothesis this paper presents a choice theoretic derivation of subjective probability in a savage type setting of purely subjective uncertainty which neither assumes nor implies that the decisionmaker s preferences over lotteries necessarily conform to the expected utility hypothesis copyright 1992 by the econometric society

estimation of semiparametric censored regression models an application to changes in black white earnings inequality during the 1960s building on the work of chay 1995 this study examines the impact of civil rights policies on black economic progress using individual level panel data many earnings records are censored and the degree of censoring changed during the period of interest consequently valid estimates of the program effects must account for this censoring maximum likelihood estimation can be used if the error terms of the model are identically normally distributed we investigate the value of using weaker assumptions on the error process to estimate the laws impact the analysis shows that there was significant black white earnings convergence in the south during the 1960s we also find that semiparametric estimation methods are informative in pinpointing which parts of the model are mis specified

experimental development of sealed bid auction theory calibrating controls for risk aversion we offer a brief survey of bidding theory in high price auctions of experimental studies of behavior in such auctions and of the interplay between the design and results of the experiments and efforts to further develop the theory two new series of experiments are reported the first applies a convex transformation of payoffs in an attempt to induce a lowering of subject bids as if the bidders had become less risk averse the second applies a method for inducing any prespecified utility function for risky choices on an individual we use it to induce as if risk neutral behavior both series use baseline control to calibrate the hypothesized effect of the procedures on riskaverse behavior

labor market search an experimental study the theoretical results derived from models of economic search have implications which relate to the structure and performance of labor markets utilizing a series of laboratory experiments we attempt to capture many of the features of workers search and also the conditions under which labor markets operate by varying certain of the experimental conditions we are able to determine the searchers responses to changes in the terms of unemployment insurance to the existence of a minimum wage and to different states of information about the underlying distribution of wages in most cases the behavior of the searchers is consistent with that predicted by theory

estimating housing demand with an application to explaining racial segregation in cities we present a three stage nonparametric estimation procedure to recover willingness to pay for housing attributes in the first stage we estimate a nonparametric hedonic home price function in the second stage we recover each consumer s taste parameters for product characteristics using first order conditions for utility maximization finally in the third stage we estimate the distribution of household tastes as a function of household demographics as an application of our methods we compare alternative explanations for why blacks choose to live in center cities while whites suburbanize

financing reputation and information disclosure quality in the chinese market abstractin this article we propose a theoretical model based on the reputation theory and hypothesize a positive relation between the information disclosure quality and the company s refinancing decision we collected data from the listed companies which refinances in shenzhen main board and sme board during 2006 2012 as a panel sample and tested the hypothesis empirically the results indicate that there exists a significant positive correction short term relation between refinancing decision and the information disclosure quality but in the long term the relationship between the information disclosure quality and refinancing decision is not significant

aggregation and linearity in the provision of intertemporal incentives we consider the problem of providing incentives over time for an agent with constant absolute risk aversion the optimal compensation scheme is found to be a linear function of a vector of n accounts which count the number of times that each of the n kinds of observable events occurs the number n is independent of the number of time periods so the accounts may entail substantial aggregation in a continuous time version of the problem the agent controls the drift rate of a vector of accounts that is subject to frequent small random fluctuations the solution is as if the problem were the static one in which the agent controls only the mean of a multivariate normal distribution and the principal is constrained to use a linear compensation rule if the principal can observe only coarser linear aggregates such as revenues costs or profits the optimal compensation scheme is then a linear function of those aggregates the combination of exponential utility normal distributions and linear compensation schemes makes computations and comparative statics easy to do as we illustrate we interpret our linearity results as deriving in part from the richness of the agent s strategy space which makes it possible for the agent to undermine and exploit complicated nonlinear functions of the accounting aggregates

school quality and black white relative earnings a direct assessment the wage differential between black and white men fell from 40 percent in 1960 to 25 percent in 1980 it has been argued that this convergence reflects improvements in the relative quality of black schools to test this hypothesis we assembled data on pupil teacher ratios annual teacher pay and term length for black and white schools in the eighteen segregated states from 1915 to 1966 these data are linked to estimated returns to education for southern born men from different cohorts and states in 1960 1970 and 1980 improvements in the relative quality of black schools explain 20 percent of the narrowing of the black white earnings gap between 1960 and 1980

self selection and internal migration in the united states abstract within the conceptual framework of the roy model this paper provides an empirical analysis of internal migration flows using data from the national longitudinal survey of youth the theoretical approach highlights regional differences in the returns to skills regions that pay higher returns to skills attract more skilled workers than regions that pay lower returns our empirical results suggest that interstate differences in the returns to skills are a major determinant of both the size and skill composition of internal migration flows persons whose skills are most mismatched with the reward structure offered by their current state of residence are the persons most likely to leave that state and these persons tend to relocate in states which offer higher rewards for their particular skills

gender differences in accepting and receiving requests for tasks with low promotability abstract gender differences in task allocations may sustain vertical gender segregation in labor markets we examine the allocation of a task that everyone prefers be completed by someone else writing a report serving on a committee etc and find evidence that women more than men volunteer are asked to volunteer and accept requests to volunteer for such tasks beliefs that women more than men say yes to tasks with low promotability appear as an important driver of these differences if women hold tasks that are less promotable than those held by men then women will progress more slowly in organizations jel i23 j16 j44 j71 m12 m51

theory and misbehavior of first price auctions recent experimental evidence appears to reject simple nash equilibrium models of bidding behavior in first price auctions the author presents a methodological critique of this evidence existing tests have concentrated on deviations of subjects from predictions in the message space of the action bid deviations the author suggests that it is more natural to evaluate subject behavior in expected payoff space he concludes that the evidence against the simple models is not significant enough to warrant their rejection copyright 1989 by american economic association