effects of renewables on the stylized facts of electricity prices abstract many countries around the world have increased their renewable installed capacity due to a greater awareness of climate concerns under this new framework with renewables being among the main generation sources the literature warns of a dramatic change in price behaviour some of the most commonly claimed effects of having a significant proportion of renewable generating sources in the total electricity production mix include i a systematic decrease in overall wholesale market prices ii a higher occurrence of price jumps and iii a significant increase in price volatility the goal of the present study is to test whether these changes in price behaviour have actually come about to do so we focus on the spanish day ahead electricity market as a paradigmatic example in line with the literature it is found a statistically negative relationship between the renewable generation share and the day ahead market marginal prices as well we have obtained statistical confirmation of the fact that renewables generation share volatility is transferred to price volatility though similarly to other generation technologies finally in contrast to the general belief that the introduction of renewable generation would give rise to extreme positive prices according to our results increases in renewables generation share reduce the probability of upward jumps in prices the results obtained are of interest for portfolio managers practitioners and regulators

environmental policy in the european union fostering the development of pollution havens abstract a pollution haven occurs when dirty industries from developed nations relocate to developing nations in order to avoid strict environmental standards or developed nations imports of dirty industries expand replacing domestic production the purpose of this study is to determine whether the european union eu has increased its imports of dirty goods from poorer less democratic countries during a period of more stringent environmental standards previous empirical studies such as those by levinson and taylor levinson a and taylor m s in press unmasking the pollution haven effect international economic review ederington levinson and minier ederington j levinson a and minier j 2005 footloose and pollution free review of economics and statistics 87 92 99 kahn and yoshino 2004 and ederington and minier ederington j and minier j 2003 is environmental policy a secondary trade barrier an empirical analysis canadian journal of economics 36 137 54 find evidence that united states imports are responsive to changes in environmental stringency but the effects of eu policy have not been examined as thoroughly our study follows kahn kahn m e 2003 the geography of us pollution intensive trade evidence from 1958 to 1994 regional science and urban economics 33 383 400 and examines the impact of industry energy intensity and toxicity measured by an energy index and a toxic release inventory tri index on imports into the eu at the 2 digit industry level from 1970 to 1999 we use the signing of the maastricht treaty to signify a period of more uniform and stringent community wide environmental standards 1993 1999 and identify the level of per capita gdp within an eu trading partner we find an increased amount of eu energy intensive trade with poorer countries during the period with more stringent eu environmental standards this result is not robust however when poorer countries are defined by oecd membership and geographic region we do not find an increased amount of eu toxic intensive trade with poorer countries although there is some evidence of increased eu imports of toxic goods from poorer oecd and non eu european countries for our full sample of trading partners in all regions the evidence supports the phh for eu energy intensive trade but not for toxic intensive trade results for regional trade analysis are less clear

trade interdependence the international financial institutions and the recent evolution of sovereign debt renegotiations abstract this paper analyzes the effect of a debtor country s pattern of trade with commercial creditors home countries on the outcome of debt rescheduling negotiations the analysis reveals that a debtor country with more market power has greater leverage in a three way debt rescheduling negotiation that includes the debtor country its creditors and the international financial institutions ifis the paper also considers the effects of the ifi sovereign debt policy on the bargaining power of the parties in debt rescheduling negotiations two bargaining frameworks analyzed and compared in the paper represent the negotiation mechanism at different stages of the ifi sovereign debt policy evolution

wind power in the danish liberalised power market policy measures price impact and investor incentives wind power has a strong position at the danish electricity market mainly caused by high feed in tariffs in the 1990s investments in new wind power installations on land however have declined dramatically after the danish electricity market was liberalised in 1999 first the paper describes how policy measures directed towards wind power have been redesigned to match the liberalised market then we estimate the impact of the redesigned tariffs on the electricity prices finally we assess whether the new tariffs make an incentive to invest in wind power the paper concludes that the new tariffs not by itself make evidence for the actual danish recession in new wind power installations after the electricity reform the main causes could include a combination of problems in spatial planning high risk aversion of new wind turbine investors and perhaps more favourable support schemes in other countries

impacts of wind and solar spatial diversification on its market value a case study of the chilean electricity market abstract renewable energy is expected to become the main electricity source in the world in the coming decades with solar and wind power taking a big share of the energy supply although there has been a remarkable advance on renewable energy technologies their integration is still difficult for regulators market designers and system operators due to the high variability and limited predictability of solar and wind resources measures can be adopted to ease their integration among them geographical diversification there is plenty of literature about the diversification of solar and wind resources and there is a common conclusion greater dispersion smooths out power production however literature on the effects of spatial diversification on the power system electricity prices and renewable energy market value is much scarcer this paper studies the effects of spatial diversification and questions whether integration policies are incentivizing the placement of renewable generators where they provide the highest value to the electricity system in chile using real data and a simplified dispatch model the analysis presented shows evidence of the effects of diversification on wind and solar market value in chile results suggest that spatial diversification has a strong positive effect on the market value of renewable energy especially in scenarios with active transmission and hydro storage constraints wind market value may vary up to us 10 mw h depending on the level of diversification and the spatial and temporal constraints of the system and given current storage capacity of hydro reservoirs the solar market value may increase us 5 mw h due to diversification if transmission capacity is enough even though these results must be observed with caution because they depend on the assumptions made there is an important effect of renewable spatial diversification that should be observed by regulators

the dark side of the sun how solar power production affects the market value of solar and gas sources abstract using daily data for the italian wholesale day ahead power market over the period 2008 2013 we assess the impact of solar production on the market value of solar and gas sources defined using the concepts of value factor and unit revenues we find that on average solar generation negatively affects the solar source market value causing a departure from the grid parity condition and mining their competitiveness once public incentives are removed this negative relation is not constant over time and becomes stronger for increasing solar penetration in the energy mix interestingly the opposite is found when looking at gas while the relation between solar production and the gas market value is negative or not significant when the former is low it turns positive for higher levels of solar production this is the result of a change in gas producers bidding strategies indeed in the italian power market the highest hourly price has shifted from the peak daytime when solar production is concentrated to the off peak nighttime when solar is absent from the market and gas can exploit temporary market power

slovak electricity market and the price merit order effect of photovoltaics abstract this paper analyses slovak electricity market with a focus on photovoltaic energy it evaluates the impact of the solar electricity penetration into electricity mix on spot prices seeks evidence of the merit order effect in the slovak electricity market and quantifies it based on hourly data the multivariate regression analysis covers the period 2011 2016 the rather small merit order effect estimated by an ols time series model leads to the small decrease of slovak electricity wholesale prices this spot price reduction attributable to the photovoltaics does not outweigh the costs of the support scheme borne by end users what implies a consumer loss

energy consumption real income and temporal causality results from a multi country study based on cointegration and error correction modelling techniques abstract unlike previous studies on the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth this paper illustrates how the finding of cointegration i e long term equilibrium relationship between these variables may be used in testing granger causality based on the most recent johansen s multivariate cointegration tests preceded by various unit root or non stationarity tests we test for cointegration between total energy consumption and real income of six asian economies india pakistan malaysia singapore indonesia and the philippines non rejection of cointegration between variables rules out granger non causality and imples at least one way of granger causality either unidirectional or bidirectionial secondly by using a dynamic vector error correction model we then analyse the direction of granger causation and hence the within sample granger exogeneity or endogeneity of each of the variables thirdly the relative strength of the causality is gauged through the dynamic variance decomposition technique by decomposing the total impact of an unanticipated shock to each of the variables beyond the sample period into proportions attributable to shocks in the other variables including its own in the bivariate system results based on these tools of methodology indicate that while all pair wise relationships shared common univariate integrational properties only relationships for three countries india pakistan and indonesia were cointegrated for these countries temporal causality results were mixed with unidirectional causality from energy to income for india exactly the reverse for indonesia and mutual causality for pakistan the vdcs were not inconsistent with these results and provided us with an additional insight as to the relatively more dominant direction of causation in pakistan simple bivariate vector autoregressive models for the three non cointegrated systems did not indicate any direction of causality significantly in either direction

effect of wind generation on ercot nodal prices abstract in this paper we utilize nodal price data at each thermal generation facility within the ercot footprint between 2014 and 2016 to revisit an empirical question of great interest to various parties how does wind integration affect the wholesale energy price we find that for every additional 1000 mw of wind generation in a real time 15 minute settlement interval nodal prices at non wind resources would be suppressed by 1 45 mwh to 4 45 mwh with considerable heterogeneity across time and space

revenue prospects of photovoltaic in germany influence opportunities by variation of the plant orientation abstract the fixed feed in tariff under the renewable energy sources act in germany particularly encourages photovoltaic systems with the highest possible annual yield regardless of their temporal generation profile consequently a large part of the installed photovoltaic systems in germany have a southern orientation this paper examines how the optional german market premium scheme incentivizes the installation of photovoltaic systems with a more demand oriented electricity production for this purpose the measure energy yield elasticity of market value was developed and calculated by using historical market data the results show that some of the plant orientations that are deviating from the southern reference could have led to an increase in the market value in the last few years however these would not have been high enough to more than compensate for the financial losses that were formed as a result of the annual energy yield declines the merit order effect could change this situation in the future

high penetration wind generation impacts on spot prices in the australian national electricity market this paper explores wind power integration issues for the south australian sa region of the australian national electricity market nem by assessing the interaction of regional wind generation electricity demand and spot prices over 2 recent years of market operation sa s wind energy penetration has recently surpassed 20 and it has only a limited interconnection with other regions of the nem as such it represents an interesting example of high wind penetration in a gross wholesale pool market electricity industry our findings suggest that while electricity demand continues to have the greatest influence on spot prices in sa wind generation levels have become a significant secondary influence and there is an inverse relationship between wind generation and price no clear relationship between wind generation and demand has been identified although some periods of extremely high demand may coincide with lower wind generation periods of high wind output are associated with generally lower market prices and also appear to contribute to extreme negative price events the results highlight the importance of electricity market and renewable policy design in facilitating economically efficient high wind penetrations

international and sectoral variation in industrial energy prices 1995 2015 energy price rises for industry are a major political concern access to cheap energy is often considered a key factor for the competitiveness of industry to enable international comparisons and to foster further empirical research on the impacts of energy price or tax differentials on a wide range of outcomes such as international trade and investment patterns we construct sector level energy prices for 12 industrial sectors in 48 countries for the period 1995 to 2015 our prices are constructed as weighted averages of fuel specific prices by fuel consumption we provide guidelines for the use of our energy price data which is made available for download as well as a set of stylized facts on major trends and variations and illustrative applications

the future developments of the electricity prices in view of the implementation of the paris agreements will the current trends prevail or a reversal is ahead abstract we assess the impact on the european electricity market of the european union clean energy for all europeans package which implements the eu nationally determined contribution in paris cop 21 we focus on the year 2030 which is the year with defined climate targets for the assessment we employ a game theoretic framework of the wholesale electricity market with high technical detail the model is applied to two core scenarios a base scenario and a low carbon scenario to provide insights regarding the future electricity capacity generation mix cross border trade and electricity prices we also assess three additional variants of the core scenarios concerning different levels of a fossil and co2 prices b additional flexibility provided by batteries c market integration we find that the electricity prices in 2030 substantially increase from today s level driven by the increase in fuel and co2 prices the flexibility from batteries helps in mitigating the price peaks and the price volatility the increased low marginal cost electricity generation the expansion of non dispatchable and distributed capacities and the higher market integration further reduce the market power from producers in the electricity markets from today s level

trade offs in energy and environmental policy abstract the energy sector is undeniably undergoing a critical period faced with multiple challenges whether economic political or technological these challenges are related to the requirements set on the sector to meet a wide range of social demands associated with the three traditional dimensions of a sustainable energy system i e environmental sustainability security of energy supply and economic sustainability in particular the environmental pillar has gained ground after the paris agreement which has reinforced the requirement of a low carbon transformation of the sector a main challenge is to balance trade offs among competing goals when designing energy and environmental policies although making the energy sector greener is a common aspiration of governments and many countries are indeed being successful in this regard the success comes at a price in terms of the other non environmental dimensions of a sustainable energy system the aim of this special issue is to look in detail on some of the most pressing environmental challenges faced by the energy sector as well as the trade offs involved in reaching a greener energy system

an analysis of the decline of electricity spot prices in europe who is to blame abstract the european electricity markets are going through a phase of agitating transition which is shaped by different key factors such as the expansion of renewable energies the changes in the eu carbon trading scheme and the european market integration in addition markets are affected by the volatile prices of primary energy carriers e g gas and coal the development of these different factors led to a decline of german wholesale electricity prices of almost 40 from about 51 mwh in 2011 to 31 mwh in 2015 the goal of this study is to analyze the contribution of different price drivers to this decline thus an agent based modeling and a regression approach are applied to investigate the effect of price drivers and to verify model results by comparing both approaches our results show that against the public perception the impact of carbon and coal prices on german electricity prices has been twice as high as the renewable expansion between 2011 and 2015 furthermore if carbon and coal prices do not recover to at least the level of 2011 electricity prices will remain on the current low level complicating the economic operation of gas power plants

dynamic multilevel modelling of industrial energy demand in europe previous studies of industry level energy demand have not accounted for the hierarchical nesting of industries within a system that also adequately allows for country specific determinants of energy demand the principal contribution of this paper is therefore to analyse energy demand for european industries over the period 1995 2009 using a dynamic multilevel model that accounts for this hierarchical data structure among other things we find firstly that our dynamic multilevel model suggests that if industry income and the industry energy price increase by 10 long run energy demand will increase by 8 1 and fall by 6 8 respectively secondly we find that the corresponding long run income and price elasticities are substantially larger in a standard dynamic model of industry level energy demand which does not account for the hierarchical data structure our results therefore suggest that not accounting for the hierarchical data structure results in unreliable estimates of energy demand elasticities from a policy perspective we argue that it is imperative that future industry level energy demand studies account for the hierarchical structure of the data this is to prevent energy policy making being based on industry level evidence that substantially inflates the responsiveness of long run energy demand to income and price changes

the impact of intermittently renewable energy on italian wholesale electricity prices additional benefits or additional costs abstract most studies of the literature find that the development of renewable energy sources determines a decrease in the wholesale prices some authors use this finding to state that the current subsidies for renewable technologies cannot be considered as excessive by carrying out a hybrid analysis both simulation and ex post empirical analyses of the case of photovoltaic energy in italy this article demonstrates that this result cannot be generalised under market power an increase in pv production can provide benefits in terms of a wholesale price decrease only beyond a specific threshold and especially if combined with other effects otherwise it is likely that pv development could imply an increase in prices therefore on the one hand caution is necessary when using the estimated change in wholesale prices to evaluate the net cost for consumers of the supporting policies for renewables either the simulation based models or the full empirical analyses may be misleading on the other hand if decarbonisation is the main objective the energy policies should be designed in order to assure a deep and balanced penetration of the clean technologies regardless of their estimated transitory impact on wholesale prices and in the meantime reviewing the organisation of power markets

renewable generation and electricity prices taking stock and new evidence for germany and austria abstract economic theory predicts that the increase of renewable electricity production should reduce the price of electricity in the short run which is also known as the merit order effect although the merit order effect is only one of several consequences of renewable production on the electricity system it is crucial to determine its size for the economic evaluation of renewable energies in this paper we present a comprehensive overview of relevant past research results on the price effect of renewables additionally we conduct a new empirical analysis of the price effect of renewable production for the austrian german region a market that clearly qualifies for a merit order effect analysis given its characteristics based on the review and our own analysis we show that the merit order effect varies depending on the region and the assessment method chosen we also find that the size of this effect is less dispersed throughout different markets than previously suggested by the literature

on the market impact of wind energy forecasts this paper presents an analysis of how day ahead electricity spot prices are affected by day ahead wind power forecasts demonstration of this relationship is given as a test case for the western danish price area of the nord pool s elspot market impact on the average price behaviour is investigated as well as that on the distributional properties of the price by using a non parametric regression model to assess the effects of wind power forecasts on the average behaviour the non linearities and time variations in the relationship are captured well and the effects are shown to be quite substantial furthermore by evaluating the distributional properties of the spot prices under different scenarios the impact of the wind power forecasts on the price distribution is proved to be considerable the conditional price distribution is moreover shown to be non gaussian this implies that forecasting models for electricity spot prices for which parameters are estimated by a least squares techniques will not have gaussian residuals hence the widespread assumption of gaussian residuals from electricity spot price models is shown to be inadequate for these model types the revealed effects are likely to be observable and qualitatively similar in other day ahead electricity markets significantly penetrated by wind power

the impact of the north atlantic oscillation on electricity markets a case study on ireland abstract the north atlantic oscillation nao is a large scale atmospheric circulation pattern driving climate variability in north western europe as the deployment of wind powered generation expands on electricity networks across europe the impacts of the nao on the electricity system will be amplified this study assesses the impact of the nao via wind power generation on the electricity market considering thermal generation costs wholesale electricity prices and wind generation subsidies a monte carlo approach is used to model nao phases and generate hourly wind speed time series data electricity demand and fuel input data a least cost unit commitment and economic dispatch model is used to simulate an island electricity system modelled on the all island irish electricity system the impact of the nao obviously depends on the level of wind capacity within an electricity system our results indicate that on average a switch from negative to positive nao phase can reduce thermal generation costs by up to 8 reduce wholesale electricity prices by as much as 1 5 mwh and increase wind power generators revenue by 12

impact of renewables on electricity markets do support schemes matter abstract rising renewable shares influence electricity markets in several ways among others average market prices are reduced and price volatility increases therefore the missing money problem in energy only electricity markets is more likely to occur in systems with high renewable shares nevertheless renewables are supported in many countries due to their expected benefits the kind of support instrument can however influence the degree to which renewables influence the market while fixed feed in tariffs lead to higher market impacts more market oriented support schemes such as market premiums quota systems and capacity based payments decrease the extent to which markets are affected this paper analyzes the market impacts of different support schemes for this purpose a new module is added to an existing bottom up simulation model of the electricity market in addition different degrees of flexibility in the electricity system are considered a case study for germany is used to derive policy recommendations regarding the choice of support scheme

price and income elasticities of residential and industrial electricity demand in the european union this study examines the short and long run price and income elasticities of residential and industrial electricity demand in the european union between 1996 and 2016 instrumental variable models using the between estimator as well as dynamic panel models are employed to present robust estimates and to assess the impact of different methodologies on the reported elasticities the long run price elasticity of residential electricity consumption is estimated between 0 53 and 0 56 these elasticities are more inelastic than that of industrial electricity use which is reported between 0 75 and 1 01 the choice of different econometric methodologies has only moderate impact on the estimates while long run residential income elasticity estimates are moderately inelastic and estimated around 0 61 industrial electricity use tends to be closely tied to income with elasticities between 0 76 and 1 08 electricity demand in all sectors is highly price and income inelastic in the short run additionally population density temperatures and policy measures also influence sectoral electricity use the above estimates can aid the design of european energy and environmental policy

asymmetric industrial energy prices and international trade this paper measures the response of bilateral trade flows to differences in industrial energy prices across countries using a panel for the period 1996 2011 including 42 countries 62 sectors and covering 60 of global merchandise trade we estimate the short run effects of sector level energy price asymmetry on trade we find that changes in relative energy prices have a statistically significant but very small impact on imports on average a 10 increase in the energy price difference between two country sectors increases imports by 0 2 the impact is larger for energy intensive sectors even in these sectors however the magnitude of the effect is such that changes in energy price differences across time explain less than 0 01 of the variation in trade flows simulations based on our model predict that a 40 65 tco2 price of carbon in the eu ets would increase europe s imports from the rest of the world by less than 0 05 and decrease exports by 0 2

empirical analysis of the merit order effect and the missing money problem in power markets with high res shares an on going debate in the energy economics and power market community raises the question if energy only power markets are increasingly failing due to growing feed in shares from subsidized renewable energy sources res the argument being essentially that the merit order effect of res production depresses day ahead spot market prices which in turn creates a situation where power plant owners cannot recover investment costs missing money problem we argue in short that energy only power markets are not failing in principle but are rather facing several market distortions that hinder proper market functioning namely 1 the gap between the electricity volume actually traded at day ahead spot markets versus the overall electricity consumption and 2 the regulatory assumption that variable res generation i e wind and photovoltaic pv truly has zero marginal operation and grid integration costs in this paper we show that both effects over amplify the well known merit order effect of res power feed in and indirectly also the missing money problem beyond a level that is explainable by underlying physical realities we empirically analyze the impacts of wind and pv power feed in on the day ahead market for the epex german austrian market zone a region that is already today experiencing significant feed in tariff fit subsidized res power feed in ca 20 fit share our analysis shows that if necessary regulatory adaptations are taken i e increasing the spot market s share of overall load demand and using the true marginal costs of res units in the merit order energy based power markets remain functional despite high res power feed in

efficient modeling and forecasting of electricity spot prices abstract the increasing importance of renewable energy especially solar and wind power has led to new forces in the formation of electricity prices hence this paper introduces an econometric model for the hourly time series of electricity prices of the european power exchange epex which incorporates specific features like renewable energy the model consists of several sophisticated and established approaches and can be regarded as a periodic var tarch with wind power solar power and load as influences on the time series it is able to map the distinct and well known features of electricity prices in germany an efficient iteratively reweighted lasso approach is used for the estimation moreover it is shown that several existing models are outperformed by the procedure developed in this paper

the effect of globalisation on energy footprints disentangling the links of global value chains abstract this paper investigates the impact of global value chains on energy footprints energy footprints are consumption based indicators which record the energy used to produce a country s final demand in order to disentangle key characteristics of global value chains and their effects on the global energy footprint we employ structural decomposition analyses sda furthermore the analysis combines a retrospective with a prospective sda approach after an analysis of the global energy footprint for the period between 1995 and 2009 we discuss three scenarios of international integration and their implications for energy footprints for the period from 2009 to 2030 our results show that the global energy footprint has increased by 29 4 from 1995 to 2009 and the scenarios indicate that it will increase by another 23 5 until 2030 economic activity is the most important driver for the increase in energy footprints rising final demand alone would have increased the global energy footprint by 47 0 between 1995 and 2009 the composition of countries from where consumption and investment goods come adds another 12 6 sectoral energy intensity reductions are the most important decelerator of energy use 27 8 there is a substantial contribution of changing global value chains on the rise in the global energy footprint 7 5 stronger backward linkages in global value chains increased the global energy footprint by 5 5 between 1995 and 2009 changes in the regional composition of intermediate inputs raised it by another 1 8 the shift of the world economy towards east asia alone would have increased the global energy footprint by 3 0 the sectoral composition of global value chains on the other hand had a negligible effect on energy footprints

how does market power affect the impact of large scale wind investment in energy only wholesale electricity markets in the short run it is well known that increasing wind penetration is likely to reduce spot market electricity prices due to the merit order effect the long run effect is less clear because there will be a change in new capacity investment in response to the wind penetration in this paper we examine the interaction between capacity investment wind penetration and market power by first using a least cost generation expansion model to simulate capacity investment with increasing amounts of wind generation and then using a computer agent based model to predict electricity prices in the presence of market power we find the degree to which firms are able to exercise market power depends critically on the ratio of capacity to peak demand for our preferred long run generation scenario we show market power increases for some periods as wind penetration increases however the merit order counteracts this with the results that prices overall remain flat returns to peakers increase significantly as wind penetration increases the market power in turn leads to inefficient dispatch which is exacerbated with large amounts of wind generation

how does germany s green energy policy affect electricity market volatility an application of conditional autoregressive range models abstract based on a dynamic model for the high low range of electricity prices this article analyses the effects of germany s green energy policy on the volatility of the electricity market using european energy exchange data from 2000 to 2015 we find rather high volatility in the years 2000 2009 but also that the weekly price range has significantly declined in the period following the year 2009 this period is characterised by active regulation under the energy industry law enwg the eu emissions trading directive etd and the renewable energy law eeg in contrast to the preceding period price jumps are smaller and less frequent especially for day time hours implying that current policy measures are effective in promoting renewable energies while simultaneously upholding electricity market stability this is because the regulations strive towards a more and more flexible and market oriented structure which allows better integration of renewable energies and supports an efficient alignment of renewable electricity supply with demand

electricity markets for energy flexibility and availability impact of capacity mechanisms on the remuneration of generation technologies abstract increased shares of renewable energy sources res to fulfill ambitious european policy targets mothballing or decommissioning of existing units and absent investments lead to concerns about the system and market adequacy to restore market adequacy capacity mechanisms cms are widely discussed and implemented in various types they are intended to provide sufficient and clearly perceivable long term price signals for available capacity as integral part of the market cms interact with the other markets markets like day ahead markets are used to trade energy imbalance markets or reserve requirements are examples for markets for flexibility among others green certificates are in place to value emission neutral injection from res resulting altered prices and shifting remuneration have effects on all generation technologies cms may affect participating technologies by imposing a capacity demand a resulting change in the generation mix may also have an impact on non participating technologies two gaps can be identified in the discussion and modeling of cms in the literature first proposed game theoretic equilibrium models fall short in representing the distinctive features of different types of cms second most models incorporating cms found in the literature only focus on the interaction with the energy based market valid assessments of cm need to consider the interaction of remuneration for available capacity and flexibility and the indirect interaction with the remuneration for emission neutral res two formulations of a game theoretic market equilibrium model are proposed which represent specific cms with its distinctive features in particular a market wide centralized capacity market ccm and targeted strategic reserves srs moreover the equilibrium models explicitly combine the cms with markets for flexibility and indirect with remuneration for res we contribute to the discussion of cms by quantifying the interactions and shifting shares of remuneration based on the interaction between cms and remuneration for emission neutral injection the effect of cms on non participating res is described we conclude based on the case study results that targeted mechanisms like srs implemented with the single purpose of ensuring availability introduce large inefficiencies in the system by missing on the interaction between availability and flexibility in contrast a market wide ccm provides a beneficial outcome for all technologies at the same time it yields a sufficient high reserve margin at lowest cost it provides clear signals for the different values of energy output flexibility availability and emission neutral injection

energy intensity developments in 40 major economies structural change or technology improvement this study analyzes energy intensity trends and drivers in 40 major economies using the wiod database a novel harmonized and consistent dataset of input output table time series accompanied by environmental satellite data we use logarithmic mean divisia index decomposition to 1 study trends in global energy intensity between 1995 and 2007 2 attribute efficiency changes to either changes in technology or changes in the structure of the economy and 3 highlight sectoral and regional differences we first show that heterogeneity within each sector across countries is high these general trends within the sectors are dominated by large economies first and foremost the united states in most cases heterogeneity is lower within each country across the different sectors regarding changes of energy intensity at the country level improvements between 1995 and 2007 are largely attributable to technological change while structural change is less important in most countries notable exceptions are japan the united states australia taiwan mexico and brazil where a change in the industry mix was the main driver behind the observed energy intensity reduction

a retrospective analysis of benefits and impacts of u s renewable portfolio standards abstract as states consider revising or developing renewable portfolio standards rps they are evaluating policy costs benefits and other impacts we present the first u s national level assessment of state rps program benefits and impacts focusing on new renewable electricity resources used to meet rps compliance obligations in 2013 in our central case scenario reductions in life cycle greenhouse gas emissions from displaced fossil fuel generated electricity resulted in 2 2 billion of global benefits health and environmental benefits from reductions in criteria air pollutants sulfur dioxide nitrogen oxides and particulate matter 2 5 were even greater estimated at 5 2 billion in the central case further benefits accrued in the form of reductions in water withdrawals and consumption for power generation finally although best considered resource transfers rather than net societal benefits new renewable electricity generation used for rps compliance in 2013 also supported nearly 200 000 u s based gross jobs and reduced wholesale electricity prices and natural gas prices saving consumers a combined 1 3 4 9 billion in total the estimated benefits and impacts well exceed previous estimates of rps compliance costs

determinants differentiation and development of short term marginal costs in dairy production an empirical analysis for selected regions of the eu this work provides evidence on the determinants cost differentiation and development of short term marginal costs of dairy farms in important production regions of the european union the empirical study is based on the estimation of multi input multi output symmetric generalized mcfadden cost functions using an unbalanced panel data set of the european farm accountancy data network the results show considerable regional differences in the impact of the outputs input prices and fixed factors on marginal costs strong evidence can be found that marginal costs decrease over time and is further underlined by the development of derived regional aggregated short term supply curves marginal cost elasticities and correlation coefficients validate the hypotheses that a high degree of farm specialization large milk output and low milk prices are associated with lower marginal costs furthermore the marginal cost spread in the data sample is analyzed we show that milk output milk yield herd size labor input and fodder production can be attributed to significant marginal cost differentiation of farms whereas for crop and animal output grassland stock of other animals and depreciation only minor differentiation can be found

the renewable energy policy paradox abstract one major avenue for policymakers to meet climate targets is by decarbonizing the power sector one component of which is raising the share of renewable energy sources renewables in electricity generation however promoting renewables in liberalized power markets creates a paradox in that successful penetration of renewables could fall victim to its own success with the current market architecture future deployment of renewable energy will necessarily be more costly and less scalable moreover transition towards a full 100 renewable electricity sector is unattainable paradoxically in order for renewable technologies to continue growing their market share they need to co exist with fossil fuel technologies ignoring these findings can slow adoption and increase the costs of deploying new renewable technologies this paper spots the incompatibility between electricity liberalization and renewable policy regardless of the country location or renewable technologies the paradox holds as long as market clear prices with short term marginal costs and renewable technology s marginal cost is close to zero and not dispatchable

interactions between the power and green certificate markets abstract the current trend of liberalising the power markets is combined with ambitious deployment plans for power production based on renewable energy supplies a new policy scheme to ensure this extension has been developed in the form of a green certificate system with a politically determined target of deployment in such a system producers of renewably based electricity receive tradable certificates in proportion to the electricity they produce the producer can thereby sell these certificates and receive additional revenue apart from the power price this paper studies the price and consumption effects of such a system with a simple model we show that the effects are ambiguous this ambiguity is caused by the interaction between the two markets therefore the green certificate system is difficult to manage if the state has parallel energy targets such as a desired deployment of renewably based energy and a stabilisation or reduction of the energy consumption in addition this complicates the regulation through a deployment target of renewably based power production as the regulator has to be aware of the different effects which follow a specific target until now these effects have not been considered in the analyses of the green certificate system when introducing the system even though it might have considerable consequences for the success of the system

wholesale marginal prices in competitive generation markets wholesale marginal electricity prices are being used in several actual competitive generation markets worldwide both to remunerate generators and to charge consumption these prices must account not only for energy but also for guarantee of supply in the long and the short term this paper a provides a sound conceptual and quantitative foundation for wholesale pricing based on generation services where any existing restrictions in operation or planning in real power markets are accounted for b clearly establishes the relationship between short term marginal costs long term marginal costs and optimal wholesale electricity prices and c identifies the reasons for mismatches in cost recovery with marginal generation prices the theoretical results are verified with a detailed realistic power system model

impacts of a common green certificate market on electricity and co2 emission markets in the nordic countries abstract the purpose of this study is to analyze the effects of introducing a common nordic system for tradable green certificates tgcs on the electricity market and a future market for tradable co 2 emission permits teps in the analysis the energy system model generator markal was used to model the electricity and district heating supply systems in the four nordic countries sweden norway finland and denmark it is shown that the introduction of tgc quotas reduces wholesale electricity and tep prices the impact on the latter is very pronounced retail electricity prices may become lower or higher depending on the tgc quota than if obligations to fulfill tgc quotas were absent the tgc scheme s efficiency in reducing a specific amount of co 2 emissions is also compared to the corresponding efficiency of a tep scheme involving a broader range of technologies furthermore obligations to fulfill tgc quotas affect investment incentives for new non renewable electricity supply this seems especially true for gas fired power plants finally it is indicated that electricity supply based on biomass combustion dominates the tgc scheme at least in the short run

the merit order effect a detailed analysis of the price effect of renewable electricity generation on spot market prices in germany the german feed in support of electricity generation from renewable energy sources has led to high growth rates of the supported technologies critics state that the costs for consumers are too high an important aspect to be considered in the discussion is the price effect created by renewable electricity generation this paper seeks to analyse the impact of privileged renewable electricity generation on the electricity market in germany the central aspect to be analysed is the impact of renewable electricity generation on spot market prices the results generated by an agent based simulation platform indicate that the financial volume of the price reduction is considerable in the short run this gives rise to a distributional effect which creates savings for the demand side by reducing generator profits in the case of the year 2006 the volume of the merit order effect exceeds the volume of the net support payments for renewable electricity generation which have to be paid by consumers

agricultural price transmission across space and commodities during price bubbles this article investigates agricultural price transmission during price bubbles the empirical approach concerns the horizontal transmission of cereal prices both across different market places and across different commodities the trade policy intervention put forward to mitigate the impact of price exuberance is considered the analysis is performed using italian and international weekly spot cash price data over years 2006 2010 a period of generalized turbulence of agricultural markets firstly the properties of price time series are explored then interdependence across prices is specified and estimated by adopting appropriate cointegration techniques results suggest that the bubble had only a slight impact on the price spread and the temporary trade policy measure when effective has limited this impact

lower electricity prices and greenhouse gas emissions due to rooftop solar empirical results for massachusetts abstract monthly and hourly correlations among photovoltaic pv capacity utilization electricity prices electricity consumption and the thermal efficiency of power plants in massachusetts reduce electricity prices and carbon emissions beyond average calculations pv utilization rates are highest when the thermal efficiencies of natural gas fired power plants are lowest which reduces emissions of co 2 and ch 4 by 0 3 relative to the annual average emission rate there is a positive correlation between pv utilization rates and electricity prices which raises the implied price of pv electricity by up to 10 relative to the annual average price such that the average mwh reduces electricity prices by 0 26 1 86 per mwh these price reductions save massachusetts rate payers 184 million between 2010 and 2012 the current and net present values of these savings are greater than the cost of solar renewable energy credits which is the policy instrument that is used to accelerate the installation of pv capacity together these results suggest that rooftop pv is an economically viable source of power in massachusetts even though it has not reached socket parity

the impact of renewables on electricity prices in germany an update for the years 2014 2018 abstract increasing electricity prices for private consumers manifested the idea of price boosting renewable energy sources in germany s public opinion literature however widely concurs that wind and photovoltaics have a reducing effect on spot market electricity prices the underlying merit order effect led to historically low exchange prices in the past years to quantify this effect this study analyses historic demand and supply curves from the german day ahead market to reconstruct electricity prices without the feed in of wind and photovoltaics from 2014 to 2018 results show that renewable energy sources considerably reduced electricity prices by between 2 89 ct kwh in 2014 to 8 89 ct kwh in 2017 this allowed german end consumers to save a total of 40 billion from 2014 to 2018 additionally wind and pv contributed significantly to security of supply demand could not have been met by domestic conventional and nuclear generation capacities in up to 424 hours in 2018 the study highlights the necessity to further speed up the expansion of wind and photovoltaics

revitalising the wind power induced merit order effect to reduce wholesale and retail electricity prices in australia this paper investigates the effect of increasing the number of wind turbine generators on wholesale spot prices in the australian national electricity market s nem given the existing transmission grid from 2014 to 2025 we use a sensitivity analysis to evaluate the effect of five different levels of wind power penetration on prices ranging from scenario a no wind to scenario e that includes existing and planned wind power sufficient to meet australia s original 2020 41twh large scale renewable energy target lret we find divergence in prices between states and similar prices for nodes within states this supports the garnaut climate change review assessment on the prevalence of gold plating the intrastate transmission network and underinvesting in interstate connectivity we find that increasing wind power penetration decreases wholesale spot prices but that retail prices have increased in deregulated south australia and queensland similarly in victoria we argue that there is a pressing need to split the large generator retail companies into separate retail and generator companies and to reassess regulatory rules more generally interconnector congestion limits the potential for wind power to further reduce wholesale prices across the nem so the need for a high capacity transmission backbone in the nem is becoming clearer and will become pressing when australia moves beyond its current 2020 lret

variable renewable energy technologies in the turkish electricity market quantile regression analysis of the merit order effect abstract the share of variable renewable energy sources in power supply has increased significantly in many countries however this increase has also created problems in electricity markets while the average day ahead market price has declined in several markets the merit order effect the remuneration mechanisms in some countries have to be revised due to the surge in financial costs yet further research is needed to understand the implications of the merit order effect for remuneration mechanisms thoroughly accordingly this study aims to contribute to the literature through employing a quantile regression model to analyze the merit order effect and discuss its implications for the remuneration mechanism in turkish electricity market model results show significant negative merit order effect for both wind and run of river hydro technologies however this effect varies with respect to demand price level and technology moreover the contribution of these technologies to the total welfare in the turkish electricity market does not favor fixed price payments in conclusion it is recommended that the remuneration mechanism is revised to include the temporal value of variable renewable energy sources and electricity market design should reflect the locational value of variable renewable energy sources in turkey

congressional politics of financing the international monetary fund we address the question of how international public goods are financed by analyzing voting in the u s congress on legislation to increase the u s contri bution to the international monetary fund imf we argue that legislators are more likely to vote in favor of an increase 1 the more campaign contributions they obtain from banks that specialize in international lending and 2 the greater the share of high skilled proglobalization workers in their districts the first argu ment supports the inference that a financially strong imf mitigates the risks of international lending to the benefit of the lending banks the second reflects our claim that voters view the imf as a positive force for global economic integration that following stolper samuelson reasoning benefits high skilled workers lastly we analyze imf loan decisions and find modest support for the claim that imf policy reflects the interests of major international banks overall our results sug gest that private actors within the united states have individual stakes in funding the imf the primary mandate of the international monetary fund imf or fund is to safeguard the stability of the global financial system an international public good the imf obtains the resources it needs for its stabilization operations from mem ber governments with large members contributing most of the funds in this arti cle we analyze the politics of funding the imf from the perspective of its largest contributor the united states rather than treating the united states as a single entity with a unified national interest at the fund we consider the preferences of political actors within the united states who exert power over financing the

bigger cakes with fewer ingredients a comparison of material use of the world economy the amount of materials used worldwide in production and consumption increased by 56 from 1995 to 2008 using an index decomposition analysis based on the logarithmic mean divisia index we investigate the drivers of material use both on a global and a country scale we exploit a panel dataset of 40 countries accounting for 75 of worldwide material extraction and 88 of gdp from 1995 to 2008 the results show that economic growth and structural change towards material intensive countries explain most of the growth in global material use slight gains in material efficiency and falling importance of material intensive sectors have decelerating effects the country level analysis reveals substantial heterogeneity some nations exhibit stable or falling material use while it increases notably in most countries improving material efficiency is able to dampen growth of material use in important industrializing nations like china or india

an ex post analysis of the effect of renewables and cogeneration on spanish electricity prices abstract growing concerns about climate change and energy dependence are driving specific policies to support renewable or more efficient energy sources such as cogeneration in many regions particularly in the production of electricity these policies have a non negligible cost and therefore a careful assessment of their impacts seems necessary in particular one of the most debated impacts is their effect on electricity prices for which there have been some ex ante studies but few ex post studies this article presents a full ex post empirical analysis by looking at use of technologies and hourly electricity prices for 2005 2009 in spain to study the effects that the introduction of renewable electricity and cogeneration has had on wholesale electricity prices it is particularly interesting to perform this study in spain where an active system of public support to renewables and cogeneration has led to a considerable expansion of these energy sources and electricity pricing is at the center of intense debate the paper reports that a marginal increase of 1 gwh of electricity production using renewables and cogeneration is associated with a reduction of almost 2 per mwh in electricity prices around 4 of the average price for the analyzed period

carbon abatement with renewables evaluating wind and solar subsidies in germany and spain abstract this paper exploits the exogeneity of weather conditions to evaluate renewable energy re subsidies in germany and spain in terms of their short run direct program costs for reducing carbon dioxide emissions we find that both aggregate costs and their distribution between energy producers and consumers vary significantly depending on which type of re technology is promoted reflecting substantial heterogeneity in production costs temporal availability of natural resources and market conditions i e time varying demand carbon intensity of installed production capacities and opportunities for cross border trade we estimate that the costs for reducing 1 ton of co2 through subsidies for solar are 411 to 1944 subsidizing wind entails significantly lower costs ranging from 82 to276 in the short run the economic rents for energy producers always decrease while consumers incur four to seven times larger costs when solar is promoted but gain under re policies promoting wind

the swiss payment for milk processed into cheese ex post and ex ante analysis we make use of both an ex post and an ex ante evaluation to analyze the swiss payment for milk processed into cheese this payment for each kilogram of raw milk processed into cheese is issued to milk producers through dairy processors in the ex post evaluation by applying a vector autoregressive model we estimate the effects of reductions of the payment for prices of raw milk used to produce emmentaler gruyere and industrial cheese past declines in the payment have only been partially transmitted to raw milk prices the rate of transmission is higher for milk used for the production of industrial cheese than for artisan cheeses in the ex ante impact evaluation we use a partial equilibrium model and develop a counterfactual scenario in which the payment is removed the payment for milk processed into cheese is found to have effects on cheese production and exports but also has important indirect effects on other dairy products our findings suggest that about two thirds of the payment are benefiting milk producers at the same time the overall welfare losses resulting from the elimination of the aid are smaller than the budget allocated to this measure suggesting a net welfare gain from elimination

the value of forecasts quantifying the economic gains of accurate quarter hourly electricity price forecasts abstract we propose a multivariate elastic net regression forecast model for german quarter hourly electricity spot markets while the literature is diverse on day ahead prediction approaches both the intraday continuous and intraday call auction prices have not been studied intensively with a clear focus on predictive power besides electricity price forecasting we check for the impact of early day ahead da exaa prices on intraday forecasts another novelty of this paper is the complementary discussion of economic benefits a precise estimation is worthless if it cannot be utilized we elaborate possible trading decisions based upon our forecasting scheme and analyze their monetary effects we find that even simple electricity trading strategies can lead to substantial economic impact if combined with a decent forecasting technique

bayesian calibration and number of jump components in electricity spot price models we find empirical evidence that mean reverting jump processes are not statistically adequate to model electricity spot price spikes but independent signed sums of such processes are statistically adequate further we demonstrate a change in the composition of these sums after a major economic event this is achieved by developing a markov chain monte carlo mcmc procedure for bayesian model calibration and a bayesian assessment of model adequacy posterior predictive checking in particular we determine the number of signed mean reverting jump components required in the apxuk and eex markets in time periods both before and after the recent global financial crises statistically consistent structural changes occur across both markets with a reduction of the intensity and size or the disappearance of positive price spikes in the later period all code and data are provided to enable replication of results

energy costs in germany and europe an assessment based on a total real unit energy cost accounting framework abstract affordable energy is one of the objectives of the eu s energy policy this goal has been challenged by many factors influencing energy prices and costs such as developments in global energy markets the eu ets and the promotion of renewables analysing energy costs prices times quantity instead of prices has the advantage of accounting for quantity adjustments however it does not allow for monitoring the burden that energy costs pose on firms for this purpose both the european commission and the energy expert commission of the german government recommend using real unit energy costs defined as energy costs as a fraction of value added we develop an input output based real unit energy cost accounting framework and study the trends in germany and the eu between 1995 and 2011 we find that many of the discovered developments are not adequately represented in the political debate especially with regard to indirect costs via energy embodied in intermediate inputs which are more difficult to assess indirect energy costs are on the rise are larger than direct costs in many industries are increasingly imported and amplify the asymmetric impacts of legal exceptions available to energy intensive industries

cost effectiveness of renewable electricity policies we analyze policies to promote renewable sources of electricity a portfolio standard rps raises electricity prices and primarily reduces gas fired generation a knee of the cost curve exists between 15 and 20 goals for 2020 in our central case and higher natural gas prices lower the cost of greater reliance on renewables a renewable energy production tax credit lowers electricity price at the expense of taxpayers which limits its effectiveness in reducing carbon emissions and it is less cost effective at increasing renewables than a portfolio standard neither policy is as cost effective as a cap and trade policy for achieving carbon emission reductions

official credits to developing countries implicit transfers to the banks this paper investigates the impact on the wealth of bank share holders on the transfer of official resources to the debtor countries the main aim was to derive actual estimates of increases in shareholder wealth following important news concerning future transfers from the multilaterals to the debtor nations the main result is that stock market expects virtually all additional resources provided to debtor countries to be used for debt service to commercial banks while the estimated magnitude of these effects are informative the emphasis should be on the direction of these effects as they are robust to overestimation problems clearly official resources provided to debtor countries do devolve to creditor banks however the debtor countries should at least gain in so far as the reduction of a debt overhang eliminates investment distortions the results stem from the fact that some of the monies provided by the multilaterals are specifically earmarked for debt service or are in the form of general balance of payments support that the developing countries can use for private debt service official creditor resources that are specially provided to finance development projects are less likely to be allocated to bank debt service

do support systems for res e reduce eu ets driven electricity prices abstract support systems for electricity from renewable energy sources res e can reduce electricity prices which have also been influenced by a co2 emission trading scheme ets additional res e substitutes electricity from fossil fuels and thus co2 emissions are reduced the demand for emission reductions is lowered as a result the co2 price is also reduced consequently the wholesale price for electricity decreases however most res e support systems are financed via the electricity market which increases the retail electricity price an assessment for germany shows that retail electricity prices in the first trading period of the eu ets 2005 2007 are lowered by 2 6 euro mwh due to additional res e considering the complete eu the effect is substantially higher this paper describes the effect and the influence of different policy designs it develops an approach for assessing the effect and applies it for the case of germany and roughly estimates the effect for the eu

wind storage interconnection and the cost of electricity generation abstract we evaluate how increasing wind generation affects wholesale electricity prices balancing payments and the cost of subsidies using the irish single electricity market sem as a test system with hourly data from 1 january 2008 to 28 august 2012 we model the spot market using a system of seemingly unrelated regressions sur where the regressions are the 24 hours of the day wind has a negative impact on the system marginal price with every mwh increase in wind generation equal to about 0 2 of the average wind generation in our sample leading to a decrease of the system marginal price of 0 018 mwh or about 0 3 of its average value we use time series models to analyse the balancing market and show that wind generation increases balancing payments as do the forecast errors of demand and wind every mwh of additional wind generation is associated with an increase in constraint payments of 3 2 or about 0 01 lack of storage increases the impact of wind on balancing payments whereas the lack of interconnection has no effect overall wind decreases costs through its effect on the electricity price more than it increases constraint payments even when storage is on outage the effect of wind remains positive after including the cost of subsidies given to wind generation

the impact of renewables on electricity prices in germany an estimation based on historic spot prices in the years 2011 2013 abstract germany s public opinion and media usually attribute increasing electricity prices to the high share of renewables in the german power system but average electricity prices at the european energy exchange dropped during the last years due to an excess of renewable energy this study uses historic market data in order to quantify the effect of renewables on prices historic demand and supply curves from 2011 to 2013 have been used to reconstruct electricity prices under the assumption that no wind and pv would be available the analysis reveals an astonishingly high increase of market prices up to 5 29 ct kwh due to a lack of non renewable power capacities in 2013 the available conventional capacity would not have been able to cover the demand during 269 hours the estimated maximum deficit of 5 6 gw is in good agreement to data published by the german grid operators the discussion of the origin of this deficit leads to the conclusion that the current situation has not been caused by renewables the liberalization of the european energy market established investment risks that hindered required investment a long time before the renewables boomed

does renewable energy generation decrease the volatility of electricity prices an analysis of denmark and germany although variable renewable energy vre technologies with zero marginal costs decrease electricity prices the literature is inconclusive about how the resulting shift in the supply curves impacts price volatility because the flexibility to respond to high peak and low off peak prices is crucial for demand response applications and may compensate for the losses of conventional generators caused by lower average prices there is a need to understand how the penetration of vre affects volatility in this paper we build distributed lag models with danish and german data to estimate the impact of vre generation on electricity price volatility we find that in denmark wind power decreases the daily volatility of prices by flattening the hourly price profile but in germany it increases the volatility because it has a stronger impact on off peak prices our analysis suggests that access to flexible generation capacity and wind power generation patterns contribute to these differing impacts meanwhile solar power decreases price volatility in germany by contrast the weekly volatility of prices increases in both areas due to the intermittency of vre thus policy measures for facilitating the integration of vre should be tailored to such region specific patterns

the effect of wind and solar power generation on wholesale electricity prices in australia abstract our paper investigates the effect of wind and utility scale solar electricity generation on wholesale electricity prices in australia over 2010 2018 we use both high frequency 30 min and daily datasets for the australian national electricity market nem we estimate autoregressive distributed lag models ardl to decompose the merit order effect of wind and utility scale solar pv generation over time and across states we find that an extra gw of dispatched wind capacity decreases the wholesale electricity price by 11 aud mwh at the time of generation while solar capacity by 14 aud mwh the daily merit order effect is lower we show that the wind merit order effect has been increasing as a function of dispatched wind capacity over time despite of this wholesale electricity prices in australia have been increasing predominantly driven by the increase in natural gas prices our findings further strengthen the evidence of the merit order effect of renewable energy sources with important implications for the current energy policy debate in australia

quantifying the net cost of a carbon price floor in germany abstract the german energy and climate policy mix is failing to decarbonize electricity production until now with only 6 overall co2 emissions reductions since 2005 using empirical methods and hourly market data we estimate the aggregate supply curve of the german power market and simulate the effect of a 20 tco2 and 40 tco2 carbon price floor on the german power market and on the renewable subsidy scheme with the 40 tco2 carbon price floor median prices increase by 37 mwh and average price peaks by 50 mwh at the wholesale level the market s annual volume increases by some 18 billion to 39 billion at the retail level however the net cost to consumers is moderated due to costs savings from the renewable subsidy scheme worth some 4 billion or roughly one fifth the same ratio applies to a price floor at 20 tco2

the economic effects of client losses on otc bank derivative dealers evidence from the capital market this paper investigates the economic impact of client derivatives losses on otc derivatives dealers its focus is on the capital marketers reaction to losses suffered by four end users of otc derivatives products arranged with bankers trust new york evidence is provided on the impact of these end user losses on bankers trust itself as well as whether these losses produced any systemic or contagion effects extending to other major bank otc derivatives dealers finally the paper investigates whether possible systemic effects may be associated with bank specific characteristics such as the level of derivatives exposure counterparty risk and reliance on trading income copyright 1996 by ohio state university press

determinants of renewable energy growth a global sample analysis abstract we investigate factors influencing country level renewable energy growth by applying fevd and pcse estimation methods in a unique sample analysis with a longer time series 1990 2010 and a broader sample size of countries including brazil russia india china and south africa than previous studies our results reveal new insights the results suggest that certain government backed energy policies impede renewable energy investments thus implying significant failures in policy design these policies may be failing mainly because of uncertainty and the likelihood of discontinuity weak voluntary approaches are introduced in order to satisfy public demand for more sustainable investments and programmes we find that these may have negative influences on the growth of renewables as well the insight gained is consistent over the estimation methods employed

electricity market design for facilitating the integration of wind energy experience and prospects with the australian national electricity market abstract australia has been an early and enthusiastic adopter of both electricity industry restructuring and market based environmental regulation the australian national electricity market nem was established in 1999 and australia also implemented one of the world s first renewable energy target schemes in 2001 with significant recent growth in wind generation australia provides an interesting case for assessing different approaches to facilitating wind integration into the electricity industry wind project developers in australia must assess both potential energy market and tradeable green certificate income streams when making investments wind farm energy income depends on the match of its uncertain time varying output with the regional half hourly market price a price that exhibits daily weekly and seasonal patterns and considerable uncertainty such price signals assist in driving investments that maximize project value to the electricity industry as a whole including integration costs and benefits for other participants recent nem rule changes will formally integrate wind generation in the market s scheduling processes while a centralized wind forecasting system has also been introduced this paper outlines experience to date with wind integration in the nem describes the evolution of market rules in response and assesses their possible implications for facilitating high future wind penetrations

dynamic analysis of the german day ahead electricity spot market abstract this paper analyzes the dynamic behavior of day ahead spot prices in the german electricity spot market due to positive structural shocks in wind and solar power it uses a dynamic structural vector autoregressive model to estimate the related structural impulse response functions the estimates suggest that wind power shocks have a more prolonged negative effect on spot prices than solar power shocks significant autocorrelations of wind power for larger lags indicate these results the total negative merit order effect of a solar power shock is larger when using a reasonable model specification one reason might be that solar power shocks coincide with demand peaks however results regarding the relation of the effects of wind and solar should be dealt with carefully because these results do not hold for all specifications past static estimates show differences in the total average negative merit order effects these estimates might be overstated if wind and solar power dynamics are transferred to the merit order effects

large scale wind power integration and wholesale electricity trading benefits estimation via an ex post approach abstract the integration of large scale wind power has brought about a series of challenges to the power industry but at the same time a number of benefits are being realized among those the ability of wind power to cause a decline in the electricity market prices has been recognized in quantifying this effect some models used in recent years are based on simulations of the market supply side and the price clearing process the accuracy of the estimates depend on the quality of the input data the veracity of the adopted scenarios and the rigorousness of the solution technique in this work a series of econometric techniques based on actual ex post wind power and electricity price data are implemented for the estimation of the impact of region wide wind power integration on the local electricity market clearing prices and the trading savings that stem from this effect the model is applied to the case of spain where the estimated savings are compared against actual credit and bonus expenses to ratepayers the implications and extent of these results for current and future renewable energy policy making are discussed

the merit order effect of wind and photovoltaic electricity generation in germany 2008 2016 estimation and distributional implications abstract generation from renewable energy sources in germany has experienced a considerable uptake in recent years mainly responsible for this development is the german renewable energy sources act erneuerbare energien gesetz eeg this paper considers redistributive implications of the eeg for different electricity consumers using time series regression analysis we show that electricity generation by wind and pv has reduced spot market prices considerably by 6 mwh in 2010 rising to 10 mwh in 2012 we use these results to build a near term forecasting tool for merit order effects projected to reach 14 16 mwh in 2016 on the other hand the costs of the eeg are passed forward to consumers in the form of a surcharge our findings highlight significant redistributive transfers under the current design of the eeg in particular some energy intensive industries are benefiting from lower wholesale electricity prices whilst being largely exempted from contributing to the costs of the scheme we also highlight implications of our results for other areas for reform of the eeg such as adequate remuneration mechanisms that ensure efficient operation and investment decisions are made under the scheme more generally these findings suggest that policy makers need to integrate distributional assessments into policy design and implementation