farm household production efficiency evidence from the gambia this article investigates the economic efficiency of farm households with an application to the gambia the efficiency analysis is conducted not at the farm level but at the household level thus capturing the importance of off farm activities output based measures of technical allocative and scale efficiency are generated using nonparametric measurements an econometric analysis of factors affecting the efficiency indexes is then conducted using a tobit model technical efficiency is fairly high indicating that access to technology is not a severe constraint for most farm households the cost of scale inefficiency is modest allocative inefficiency by contrast is found to be important for the majority of farm households on the basis of the tobit results imperfections in markets for financial capital and nonfarm employment contribute to significant allocative inefficiency

women s work and economic development using a cross country dataset and microdata from india and thailand we examine how women s work status changes with economic development several clear patterns emerge women s labor force participation first declines and then rises with development women move from work in family enterprises to work as paid employees fertility declines and gender gaps in education narrow women s education levels and those of their spouses appear to be important determinants of women s labor market activities broad welfare indicators such as mortality rates and education levels indicate that women s well being improves on average with development both in absolute terms and relative to men

agricultural household models extensions applications and policy this book presents the basic model of an agricultural household that underlies most of the case studies undertaken so far the model assumes that households are price takers and is therefore recursive the decisions modeled include those affecting production and the demand for inputs and those affecting consumption and the supply of labor comparative results on selected elasticities are presented for a number of economies the empirical significance of the approach is demonstrated in a comparison of models that treat production and consumption decisions separately and those in which the decisionmaking process is recursive the book summarizes the implications of agricultural pricing policy for the welfare of farm households marketed surplus the demand for nonagricultural goods and services the rural labor market budget revenues and foreign exchange earnings in addition it is shown that the basic model can be extended in order to explore the effects of government policy on crop composition nutritional status health saving and investment and to provide a more comprehensive analysis of the effects on budget revenues and foreign exchange earnings methodological topics primarily the data requirements of the basic model and its extensions along with aggregation market interaction uncertainty and market imperfections are discussed the most important methodological issues the question of the recursive property of these models is also discussed

survey forecasts in brazil a prismatic assessment of epidemiology performance and determinants abstract this paper assesses the behavior of survey forecasts in brazil during the inflation targeting regime when managing expectations is one of the cornerstones of the conduct of monetary policy the distinctive database of the survey conducted by the central bank of brazil bcb among professional forecasters allows for a thorough investigation of the epidemiology determinants and performance of forecasts the main results are i top performing forecasters are influential to other forecasters ii survey forecasts perform better than vector autoregressive model based forecasts iii common forecast errors prevail over idiosyncratic components across respondents iv inflation targets play an important role in inflation expectations and v agents perceive the bcb as following a taylor rule consistent with inflation targeting the last two suggest high credibility of the monetary authority

nutritional status during an economic crisis evidence from russia between 1996 and 1998 russia experienced a spectacular decline in economic activity which was followed by a dramatic rebound between 1998 and 2000 we use panel data to examine the impact of variation in household resources on six dimensions of nutritional status distinguishing longer run from short term fluctuations in resources nutritional status is very resilient to short term variation in household resources gross energy intake adult weight and child stature change very little as expenditure deviates from its long run average longer run resources have a substantively large positive and significant effect on energy intake diet quality adult weight and child stature the evidence indicates that individuals and households are able to weather short term fluctuations in economic resources at least in terms of maintaining body mass and energy intake increased globalisation has resulted in many less developed countries becoming more integrated into world markets this integration carries both benefits and costs for the populations of those countries an oft cited cost is elevated risk of exposure to economic fluctuations which has been manifest in several spectacular economic crises across the globe in the last few decades there is however little evidence on the extent to which individuals and families are able to mitigate deleterious effects of these economic upheavals on their well being in spite of its importance for understanding the consequences of globalisation this article provides new evidence on this issue specifically we examine the relationship between several dimensions of nutritional well being and variation in household resources during the russian economic crisis in the late 1990s the economies of the former soviet bloc have been especially volatile since the transition to market based economies which began in the early 1990s nowhere has this been more true than in russia where in the last half of 1998 real gdp collapsed by around 30 and then rapid growth brought the economy back to its pre crisis level by 2000 the time path of changes in gdp is closely mimicked by changes in the incomes and expenditures of russian households using extremely rich longitudinal household survey data from the russian longitudinal monitoring survey rlms we examine the impact of these large fluctuations in household resources on nutrient intake and on anthropometric markers of nutritional status at the individual level in so doing we address an important issue in the literature regarding the extent to which households in low income settings are able

remittances and inequality in this paper the authors propose a framework and develop techniques for analyzing the impact of migrant remittances on the distribution of rural income by size and subsequently its impact on rural welfare household data are used to assign numerical coefficients to the impact of net remittances from both internal and international migrants on income inequality in 2 mexican villages the impact of migrant remittances on the distribution of rural income by size depends critically on the degree to which migration opportunities become diffused through the village population on the returns to human capital embodied in remittances and on the distribution of potentially remittance enhancing skills and education across village households our empirical findings demonstrate that in a village where many households contain internal migrants but few have experience migrating to the u s remittances from mexico to us migrants have an unequalizing impact on village incomes while remittances from internal migrants have a favorable effect on the village income distribution by contrast in a village with a long historyh of sending migrants to the us and hence a more ready access to us labor markets us to mexico remittances have an equalizing impact on incomes remittances from internal migrants in this village however embody a large human capital component and are highly correlated with household income hence internal migrant remittances account for a comparatively large share of inequalities in the 2nd village the overall effect of remittances on income inequality is favorable in both villages migration type migration stage and interaction terms all appear to play a role in this context the effects of small changes in remittances upon income inequality and rural welfare in the 2 villages are explored and some implications for migration and rural development policy are considered authors modified

technical progress and outputs under variable returns to scale this paper analyzes the implications of three types of technical progress on outputs in a variable returns to scale framework it is shown that hicks ne utral technical improvement is ultra biased in production regardless of the direction and severity of the returns to scale the output eff ect of intensive factor saving technical progress is more ultra biase d relative to neutral progress regardless of the industrial pattern of returns to scale these results may break down if the system unde r variable returns to scale is unstable intensive factor using techn ical progress however may have any output effect copyright 1987 by the review of economic studies limited

inflation expectations in latin america this paper tests the rationality of inflation forecasts surveyed in mexico brazil and chile and identifies their recent formation rule there is strong evidence that forecasts are unbiased but forecasters have not been fully efficient in the use of available information the paper assesses the importance of inflation targets to anchor inflation expectations in these countries and finds that in most cases there is room for improvement in credibility

food aid food prices and producer disincentives in ethiopia although the short term aims of food aid are well conceived strong concerns have been voiced regarding the long term impacts of such aid on incentives for agricultural producers in recipient countries this article examines the statistical link between food aid shipments and food prices in ethiopia over the period 1996 2006 monthly data from three markets and three commodities are used to estimate a system of seemingly unrelated regression models for food prices results indicate that previous year food aid shipments reduce prices in all producer and consumer markets these effects however appear to be limited to the set of internationally traded commodities that are domestically marketed a recursive regression procedure is used to identify the food aid threshold at which a negative aid effect emerges food aid shipments that constitute less than 10 of domestic production appear to be benign but shipments above this level show signs of being disruptive to local markets we use a simple policy simulation to argue that production sensitive targeting e g conditioning food aid on local food production would help to circumvent disincentive effects copyright 2009 oxford university press

the impact of education in rural ghana examining household labor allocation and returns on and off the farm most of the human capital literature pertaining to developing countries focuses on the returns to education in either farm work or wage work few studies examine how education affects the allocation of time between these activities this paper estimates the returns to education in farm and off farm work and consequently the role of education in determining the allocation of labor the results from this study show that off farm work has a much higher return to education than does farm work and suggest that this divergence in returns affects the allocation of labor in farm households between farm and off farm work

a farm household model for agri food policy analysis in developing countries application to smallholder farmers in sierra leone this paper presents a generic farm household model for use in the context of developing countries to gain knowledge on food security and rural poverty alleviation under different policy options it is a static positive programming model which simultaneously solves a set of microeconomic farm models reproducing the behaviour of representative individual farm households this model is designed to capture key features of developing countries agriculture such as the non separability of production and consumption decisions due to market imperfections the inter linkage between transaction costs and market participation decisions the interaction among farm households for factor markets and the seasonality of resource use model use is illustrated in this paper by simulating the impact of rice seed policy on the livelihood of representative smallholder farmers in sierra leone results show that the seed policy would improve farm productivity and boost household income but that it is not sufficient to fight poverty since 90 of the surveyed farm households would continue to live below the extreme poverty line of 1 usd equivalent per person per day

rural nonfarm activities and agricultural crop production in nigeria although most rural households are involved in the farm sector the nonfarm sector has grown significantly in recent decades and its role in rural development has become increasingly important this article examines the effect of participation in nonfarm activities on crop expenses of farm households in nigeria the relationship is modeled using a nonseparable agricultural household model that suggests that participating in nonfarm activities can relax the credit constraints facing farm households and reduce risk thereby helping households improve farm production and smooth consumption over time the results show that participation in nonfarm activities by nigerian farmers has a positive and significant effect on crop expenses and in particular on payments for hired labor and inorganic fertilizers separate analysis of the six geopolitical zones in nigeria indicates that it is in the south south and south east zones where nonfarm participation appears to induce more hiring of labor the results support the hypothesis that nonfarm participation helps relax liquidity constraints but suggests how that liquidity is used is zone specific in general the results also indicate that liquidity is used more to pay for inputs into staple production as opposed to cash crops

the effect of nonfarm income on investment in bulgarian family farming this article documents a relationship between nonfarm income primarily earnings and pensions and agricultural investment in bulgaria specifically expenditures on working capital variable inputs such as feed seed and herbicides and investment in livestock among those with positive spending on farm inputs the estimated elasticity of these expenditures with respect to nonfarm income is 0 14 nonfarm income also has an effect on the number of households that purchase farm animals with an estimated elasticity of 0 35 the use of nonfarm income for farm investment is consistent with the presence of credit constraints as is the fact that less than one percent of farmers report outstanding debts for agricultural purposes yet many farm households take out large unsecured loans for other purposes primarily to cover consumption expenditures implying that credit is available but that farmers prefer not to use borrowed funds to finance agricultural investment this would suggest that increases in the availability of agricultural credit may have little effect on farm outcomes whereas increases in nondebt financed sources of liquidity such as subsidies or transfers may better stimulate investment

does ignoring heterogeneity in impacts distort project appraisals an experiment for irrigation in vietnam could the simplifying assumptions made in project appraisal be so far from the truth that the expected benefits of public investments are not realized using data for vietnam commonly used estimates of the benefits from irrigation investments based on means are compared with impacts assessed through an econometric modeling of marginal returns that allows for household and area heterogeneity using integrated household level survey data the simpler method performs well in estimating average benefits nationally but can be misleading for some regions and by ignoring heterogeneity it overestimates gains to the poor and underestimates gains to the rich at moderate to high cost levels ignoring heterogeneity in impacts results in enough mistakes to eliminate the net benefits from public investment when irrigating as little as 3 percent of vietnam s non irrigated land the savings from the more data intensive method are sufficient to cover the full cost of the extra data required ignoring other benefits from that data

hybrid seed and the economic well being of smallholder maize farmers in zambia abstractthe development and diffusion of hybrid maize in zambia since the 1970s is a major achievement in african agriculture but other than profitability studies analyses of how this process has affected the economic well being of smallholder farmers have been few we test the relationship of hybrid seed use with six indicators of economic well being after using the control function instrumental variables approach to test for the endogeneity of hybrid seed use we estimate correlated random effects cre fractional response cre tobit and fixed effects models with a panel of nationally representative data collected in 2002 3 and 2006 7 findings suggest that use of maize hybrids is associated with higher values of household income assets farm and processing equipment and livestock and less deprivation compared to other farmers in nearby villages

technical progress terms of trade and welfare under variable returns to scale the implications of variable returns to scale vrs have been extensively studied by trade theorists e g batra 1968 jones 1968 kemp and negishi 1970 and eaton and panagariya 1979 it is however notable that virtually no efforts have been made to examine the welfare implications of growth for an open economy in the presence of vrs the only exception is a recent study by eaton and panagariya 1982 they derived sufficient conditions for growth rising either from factor accumulation or technical progress to improve the welfare of a small country characterized by vrs 1 the purpose of this paper is to analyse the welfare implications of economic growth identified specifically with hicks neutral technical progress for a small as well as a large country in the presence of vrs we obtain several alternative sufficient conditions for growth to be welfare increasing in addition the effects of growth on the terms of trade in the case of a large country as well as the effect of technical progress in both countries on the terms of trade are examined

rainfall shocks and the gender wage gap evidence from indian agriculture summary in the context of climate change and its effect on poverty previous studies have shown that productivity shocks in agriculture such as rainfall variability affect wages adversely none of the studies however consider the heterogeneity in the impact of these shocks on agricultural wages by gender a feature which has been studied for demand shocks in urban labor markets for developed countries using national sample survey data for india from 1993 to 2007 a district level panel dataset is created to examine how a rainfall shock affects the gender wage gap the study shows that both female and male wages are positively related to rainfall shocks hence future studies must study the impact of labor market shocks in rural areas on both female and male wages separately it also finds that the female to male wage ratio is significantly positively associated with a rainfall shock in regions where rainfed rice is cultivated i e low high rainfall reduces increases the female to male ratio the study demonstrates that this result is due to a positive association of demand for female labor with rainfall in these rainfed rice growing regions this finding is consistent with the greater marginal value of female labor in rice cultivation which is also a crop highly sensitive to rainfall variability under rainfed conditions the paper concludes that the effect of a rainfall shock on the gender wage gap depends upon the gender roles underlying the technology of production which varies across cropping systems

asymmetric non separation and rural labor markets abstract this paper develops and implements a test that provides insight into the state of rural labor markets the test is based on a theoretical link between a shortage or surplus in the labor market and asymmetric responses to changes in household composition we develop auxiliary tests to distinguish other market imperfections from labor market imperfections and provide evidence that most changes in household composition are exogenous to local labor market conditions we implement the test using data from ethiopia malawi tanzania and uganda the overall pattern is one of excess labor supply in rural areas with heterogeneity across cultivation phases genders and agro ecological zones surplus labor is most evident during low intensity cultivation phases in ethiopia there is suggestive evidence that credit constraints create a de facto labor shortage for poorer households there is also evidence of partial gender segmentation in rural labor markets

gender and policy roles in farm household diversification in zambia summary many african governments faced with low rural incomes and food security challenges have developed input subsidy programs in order to enhance agricultural productivity this paper adds to recent literature analyzing the effects of input subsidy programs and gender on crop diversification in sub saharan africa we investigate the effect of zambia s input subsidy program on crop allocation patterns by gender in relatively land abundant zambia we test both single equation crop diversification index models and multivariate regression models of cropland allocation our study finds that input subsidies reduce crop diversification more in male headed households than in female headed households further multivariate regression results confirm that this occurs because female headed households expand maize acreage less in response to the input subsidy these findings suggest that greater cropland diversification will be maintained if input subsidy programs are accompanied by loan programs and other assistance which support leadership roles for women in farm households

the determinants of nonfarm activities and incomes of rural households in mexico with emphasis on education abstract this paper presents the main results of a study of the effects of education as well as other household assets on the choice of activities and incomes of rural mexican households our study examines the various income sources as well as the education of the household s head and its members implications are drawn for rural education and development policies to promote rural nonfarm incomes and employment

can crop purchase programs reduce poverty and improve welfare in rural communities evidence from the food reserve agency in zambia the last decade has seen a resurgence of parastatal crop marketing institutions in sub saharan africa many of which cite improving food security and incomes as key goals however there is limited empirical evidence on the welfare effects of these programs this article considers one such program the zambian food reserve agency fra which purchases maize from smallholder farmers at a pan territorial price that typically exceeds maize market prices in surplus production areas using both fixed effects and an instrumental variables approach combined with correlated random effects we estimate the effects of the fra s maize marketing activities on smallholder farm household welfare results suggest that fra activities have positive direct welfare effects on the small minority of smallholder households that are able to sell to it however the results also suggest negative indirect fra effects as higher levels of fra activity in a district are associated with higher levels of poverty

subsistence and semi subsistence farming in selected eu new member states factor and cluster analysis are used to analyse the attitudes and perceptions of agricultural households in five eu new member states towards farming commercialisation and barriers to and drivers for an increased integration in agricultural markets the contribution of unsold output to the total household income is valued a stepwise linear regression is employed to detect important variables explaining the degree of agricultural market integration of farm households the analysis indicates that subsistence farming is of utmost importance for the rural poor and particularly in bulgaria and romania the proportion of consumption from own production manual cultivation techniques and distance to an urban centre negatively affect output sales rural development policies targeted at rural physical and market infrastructure might relieve some of these constraints

wage and labor supply effects of illness in cote d ivoire and ghana instrumental variable estimates for days disabled abstract sickness should make individuals less productive but there are problems in measuring this effect first how is adult morbidity measured in a household survey second how is the impact or morbidity on productivity inferred if earning is partly used to improve health self reported functional activity limitation due to illness is considered an indicator of morbidity for wage earners and self employed people to deal with both the measurement and joint determination problems an instrumental variable estimation approach is used where local food prices and health services instrument for disability days that reduce wages by at least 10 and hours by 3 or more

poverty and prosperity among migrant settlers in the amazon rainforest frontier of ecuador household level interview data from a probability sample survey conducted in the northeastern ecuadorian amazon in 1990 are used to examine the determinants of income and assets among migrant farmers in the agricultural frontier multivariate analysis indicates that size of plot owned proximity to markets duration of residence quality of soil receipt of technical assistance off farm employment and initial wealth positively influence current household income and wealth more land in cattle pasture is also associated with higher status some settlers are prospering relative to others despite variable soil quality unsustainable land uses geographic isolation apparent scarcity of labor and lack of supportive infrastructure the article closes with a discussion of implications for policies to assist small farmers with some consideration of the potential ecological consequences of farmers activities

immiserizing growth for a quota distorted small economy under variable returns to scale the authors demonstrate that growth of a small open economy distorted by import quotas in contrast to the case of tariffs improves welfare when the industries display identical variable or constant returns to scale furthermore growth cannot reduce welfare if the industry that experiences technical progress exhibits a greater returns to scale than the static industry conversely if the dynamic sector displays a smaller returns to scale than the static sector growth of a quota distorted small economy can be immiserizing the authors results are independent of whether hicks neutral technical progress occurs in the importable or the exportable sector

the impact of migration on rural poverty and inequality a case study in china large numbers of agricultural labor moved from the countryside to cities after the economic reforms in china migration and remittances play an important role in transforming the structure of rural household income this article examines the impact of rural to urban migration on rural poverty and inequality in a mountainous area of hubei province using the data of a 2002 household survey since migration income is a potential substitute for farm income we present counterfactual scenarios of what rural income poverty and inequality would have been in the absence of migration our results show that by providing alternatives to households with lower marginal labor productivity in agriculture migration leads to an increase in rural income in contrast to many studies that suggest that the increasing share of nonfarm income in total income widens inequality this article offers support for the hypothesis that migration tends to have egalitarian effects on rural income for three reasons 1 migration is rational self selection farmers with higher expected return in agricultural activities and or in local nonfarm activities choose to remain in the countryside while those with higher expected return in urban nonfarm sectors migrate 2 households facing binding constraints of land supply are more likely to migrate 3 poorer households benefit disproportionately from migration

price policy poverty and power within rural west african households abstract this paper explores the impact of agricultural price policy on poverty in west africa a region in which prices are an important tool for raising rural household incomes a game theoretic collective model of household income generation and resource allocation is developed that incorporates three features typical of west african rural households preference heterogeneity among women and men individual resource control and power mediated bargaining over resource control in the face of changes in households economic environments to explore price effects the model is used to simulate the income impacts of large increases in cotton prices accompanying fast paced agricultural liberalisation in burkina faso in the 1980s the paper shows that where resources are controlled individually by household members rather than pooled pareto efficiency in income generation does not hold the impact of agricultural price policy on poverty is mediated by bargaining over resource control within households bo

the population problem theory and evidence this study is concerned with the relationships among population growth poverty and environmental degradation with particular focus on the situation in developing countries the author rejects the concept of a general theory of fertility behavior in favor of an interpretation of these relationships which might be applicable to certain situations in the poorest parts of the indian subcontinent and sub saharan africa such situations include unacceptable risks of maternal death for poor illiterate women and a condemnation to extreme poverty in conditions of the deterioration of local resources and of the environment the author concludes that population growth rates are too high in certain specific areas and that an appropriate policy reaction to such conditions would be to try to change the options that men and women face so that their reasoned choice would be to lower their fertility

social influence and collective action effects on farm level soil conservation effort in rural kenya abstract this paper analyzes the effects of social influence and participation in collective action initiatives on soil conservation effort among smallholder farmers in lake naivasha basin kenya we apply binary and ordered probit models in a two stage regression procedure to cross sectional data collected through a household survey among randomly selected smallholder farmers smallholder farming systems in the research area are associated with practices that render farmlands susceptible to soil erosion causing negative impacts on land and the environment therefore strategies that encourage soil conservation are likely to also offer solutions for dealing with agri environmental challenges and poverty alleviation results indicate that social capital facilitates participation in collective action initiatives which then influence individual soil conservation efforts neighborhood social influences subjective norms gender education level farm size access to credit and livestock ownership also emerge as key determinants of soil conservation effort policy implications drawn by this study encourage strategies to increase participation and effectiveness in collective action initiatives as a boost to soil conservation implementation of soil conservation practices could also be encouraged through awareness increasing instruments facilitating access to agricultural micro credit and paying attention to gender related challenges on knowledge access and rights over land and other natural resources

credit constraints and agricultural productivity evidence from rural rwanda while potentially negative impacts of credit constraints on economic development have long been discussed conceptually empirical evidence for africa remains limited we use a direct elicitation approach on a national sample of rwandan rural households to empirically assess the extent and nature of credit rationing in the semi formal sector and its impact using an endogenous switching model elimination of all constraints could increase output by some 17 per cent implications for policy and research are spelled out

capital markets urban unemployment and land abstract this paper shows that the remarkable result by khan and naqvi that a reduction in the capital rental differential always improves welfare despite the presence of a rigid urban wage can be obtained only for the 2 2 harris todaro model in an extended harris todaro framework incorporating a third specific factor a decrease in a distortion may not necessarily be welfare improving

remittances poverty inequality and welfare evidence from the central plateau of burkina faso abstract this paper applies gini and concentration coefficient decomposition as well as the foster greer thorbecke poverty index and the stark yitzhaki welfare index to new data from four villages in burkina faso to compare the marginal effects of remittances from intercontinental and intra african migration on inequality poverty and social welfare evidence is found that intra african remittances reduce inequality while intercontinental remittances have the opposite effect also it is found that although remittances from intercontinental migration are associated with much lower incidence depth and severity of poverty the marginal impact of remittances from this form of migration on social welfare is limited because recipients do not include the rural poor

inefficiency of male and female labor supply in agricultural households evidence from uganda this article analyzes the efficiency of the intra household allocation of female and male labor inputs in agricultural production in a collective household model spouses optimal on farm labor supply is such that the marginal rate of technical substitution between male and female labor is equated over different crops using the uganda national household survey 2005 06 we test whether this condition holds by estimating production functions and controlling for endogeneity using a method proposed by gandhi navarro and rivers 2009 we find that women are less productive than men that there is more female labor input on low productivity parcels and that men are relatively more productive on female controlled plots compared with male controlled plots total farm output could be higher and pareto improvements could be possible if male labor was reallocated to female controlled plots and or female labor was reallocated to male controlled plots

determinants and effects of income diversification amongst farm households in burkina faso using four years of household data from three agroecological zones in burkina faso sahelian sudanian and guinean the article examines the determinants and effects of household income diversification harvest shortfalls and terms of trade are found to drive diversification but land constraints do not income diversification is associated with higher incomes and food consumption and more stable income and consumption over years

effect of modern rice varieties and irrigation on household income distribution in nepalese villages abstract since high yielding modern rice varieties mvs are adopted only in favorable production environments significant regional productivity differentials have emerged in nepal this study explores the distributional consequences of such differential mv adoption based on an intensive survey of favorable and unfavorable villages we found that mv adoption increased returns to land but decreased family labor earnings from rice production as it facilitated the substitution of hired for family labor as a result the differential mv adoption did not significantly worsen the household income distribution according to the results of the counterfactual gini decomposition analysis

a brief analysis of aggregate measures as an alternative to the median at central bank of brazil s survey of professional forecasts abstract this paper presents a brief analysis of representative measures of inflation expectations from central bank of brazil s survey of professional forecasts that are alternative to the median response we build time series with the mode and core measures of inflation expectations from the panel of professional forecasts surveyed from january 2002 to september 2012 we compare them to the median response with respect to their predictive power in a 12 month ahead horizon we also compare the predictive power of the alternative measures with the realized core of consumer price inflation

natural resource collection work and children s schooling in malawi abstract this paper presents results of research that investigates if long hours of work spent by children in fuel wood and water collection activities i e natural resource collection work influence the likelihood that a child aged 6 14 attends school potential endogeneity of resource collection work hours is corrected for using two stage conditional maximum likelihood estimation data from the 1997 1998 malawi integrated household survey ihs conducted by the malawi national statistics office nso in conjunction with the international food policy research institute ifpri are used the study finds that malawian children are significantly involved in resource collection work and their likelihood of attending school decreases with increases in hours allocated to this work the study further shows that girls spend more hours on resource collection work and are more likely to be attending school while burdened by this work consequently girls may find it difficult to progress well in school however girls are not necessarily less likely to be attending school results further show that presence of more women in a household is associated with a lower burden of resource collection work on children and a higher probability of children s school attendance finally the research shows that children from the most environmentally degraded districts of central and southern malawi are less likely to attend school and relatively fewer of them have progressed to secondary school compared to those from districts in the north

education labor supply and market development in rural peru summary research suggests that education has a limited effect on subsistence farm productivity yet rural incomes include more than farming as households diversify their income portfolios furthermore education may affect the number of labor hours supplied utilizing data from peru this paper finds that farm households benefit from more education by finding more lucrative opportunities characterized by fewer hours the extent to which this is possible depends on how well local markets are developed since education policy takes time to yield returns policy makers have an additional tool at their disposal improving market access will also increase the returns to education

will developing country nutrition improve with income a case study for rural south india aggregate estimates of food expenditure are consistent with such a possibility implying income expenditure elasticities close to one however the high degree of aggregation at which such estimates are made means that the considerable increase in price per nutrient as income increases is ignored and the nutrient elasticities are therefore overstated estimates for a rural south indian sample indicate that this bias is considerable and that the true nutrient elasticities with respect to income may be close to zero

technical coefficients for bio economic farm household models a meta modelling approach with applications for southern mali abstract in recent years different types of bio economic models have been developed to support the analysis of the potential impact of agrarian policies on changes in land use sustainable resource management and farmers welfare most bio economic models rely on series of discrete input output coefficients for current and improved cropping and livestock activities whereas mathematical programming procedures are usually applied to analyse optimum allocative choice adequate procedures for the smooth integration of biophysical information into economic decision models are however not readily available this article provides a new and comprehensive framework for the incorporation of technical input output coefficients derived from agroecological simulation approaches into bio economic farm household models therefore continuous production functions are estimated for the production side of the farm household model making use of meta modelling principles it is shown that meta modelling offers considerable scope for improving the specification and behaviour of bio economic farm household models this procedure is applied in a farm household model developed for the analysis of farmers response to agrarian policies in southern mali results are presented for the behaviour of a typical household focusing attention on the trade offs between farm income and soil nutrient balances under free market conditions and with constraints on labour capital and animal traction markets the stability and robustness of the model is analysed through a simulation of the impact of higher input costs for land use and fertiliser applications

factors affecting food poverty in ghana household production theory is applied to the ghana household budget survey data to 1 identify the main determinants of food poverty and 2 determine the net contribution of children to household food availability results suggest income fertility and maturity indices age sex and education significantly explain household calorie gaps hypothesis test results at one per cent and five per cent suggest the contribution of children to household food availability is less than their caloric intake estimated non linear equations permit the prediction and monitoring of the calorie gap for a given household or set of households with given household income and demographic features in a given location

rational expectations and macroeconomic forecasts the article presents extensive results from testing for bias and serially correlated errors in a collection of time series of quarterly multiperiod forecasts for six variables including real gnp growth inflation and unemployment the analysis covers responses by 79 frequent participants in economic outlook surveys conducted regularly since 1968 it shows much greater incidence of apparently systematic errors for inflation than for the other variables also the tests are more favorable to composite group forecasts than to most of the individual forecast sets

rural nonfarm employment and income diversification in colombia abstract using data for rural households from colombia we find that off farm employment contributes a significant share 45 on average to household income but that the importance of off farm income and returns to household labor vary over the income distribution analysis reveals significant gains from specialization but for households able to specialize no systematic differences in returns to labor between farm and nonfarm sources we conclude that in colombia there is no conflict between development of the farm and the nonfarm sector but that to maximize gains from nonfarm development and reduce the scope for undesirable distributional consequences policies enabling households to specialize might be called for

optimal accommodation by strong policymakers under incomplete information abstract this paper examines the optimal behavior of a policymaker who is able to precommit labelled strong when the public entertains the possibility that he is either strong or weak unable to precommit the main result is that in the presence of doubts about their type it is optimal even for strong policymakers to partially accommodate inflationary expectations this contrasts with vickers 1986 who finds that when strength is conceived in terms of the relative concern for employment the strong policymaker inflates less under incomplete than under full information the paper also provides a theory of endogenous announcements

entitled to work urban property rights and labor supply in peru this brief summarizes the results of a gender impact evaluation study entitled entitled to work urban property rights and labor supply in peru new legal rights were issued in 1996 project teams providing titling service through 2003 in peru the study observed that between 1996 and 2003 the peruvian government issued property titles to over 1 2 million urban households the largest titling program targeted at urban squatters in the developing world this paper examines the labor market effects of increases in tenure security resulting from the program pre program squatters in program neighborhoods were significantly more likely to report improved tenure security by 60 percent similarly program participants were 18 8 percentage points less likely to report a high likelihood of eviction or invasion and 18 8 percentage points more likely to report that their dwelling was currently very secure from eviction or invasion the likelihood of working inside the home significantly falls by 11 6 percentage points for the average squatter family with two program periods

child farm labor the wealth paradox this article is motivated by the remarkable observation that children of land rich households are often more likely to be in work than the children of land poor households the vast majority of working children in developing economies are in agricultural work predominantly on farms operated by their families land is the most important store of wealth in agrarian societies and it is typically distributed very unequally these facts challenge the common presumption that child labor emerges from the poorest households this article suggests that this apparent paradox can be explained by failures of the markets for labor and land credit market failure will tend to weaken the force of this paradox these effects are modeled and estimates obtained using survey data from rural pakistan and ghana the main result is that the wealth paradox persists for girls in both countries whereas for boys it disappears after conditioning on other covariates

testing the rationality of price forecasts new evidence from panel data this paper tests the rationality of individual price forecasts in a panel of professional forecasters here unlike in most previous studies rationality is not rejected the results here differ because 1 using individual forecasts avoids aggregation bias 2 comparison of forecasts to initial data avoids bias due to data revision 3 the professional forecasters have economic incentives to state their expectations accurately and 4 a new covariance matrix estimator consistent when forecast errors are correlated across individuals is used copyright 1990 by american economic association

intertemporal substitution in labor supply micro evidence from rural india abstract this paper tests the hypothesis of intertemporal substitution in labor supply using time allocation data on adult male and female members of agricultural households in india the robustness of the results with respect to functional form specification and credit constraints is examined the female intertemporal elasticity of substitution is found to be significant but low similar to estimates from the us elasticity estimates for males are negative or zero tests of symmetry and additive separability proved inconclusive as they are quite sensitive to functional form in addition the empirical analysis revealed significant differences in the elasticity of substitution of females depending on land ownership and whether the period of reference falls during planting and harvesting or after harvesting these differences suggest that credit constraints limit the possibilities of substitution of labor supply across time

meso economic filters along the policy chain understanding the links between policy reforms and rural poverty in latin america abstract the paper clarifies the meso economy concept by defining it as comprising both the market mechanisms and administrative procedures through which policy decisions and market signals trickle down to the household level three main bodies of literature are reviewed the policy oriented literature in which the meso economy was initially considered the transaction cost approach analyzing market and policy failures and the micro economy level of agricultural household models the paper develops a synthesis of macro meso and micro economic perspectives which focuses on the roles played by three levels of filters intervening along the policy chain implications for policy and research are drawn

the theory of tariffs under variable returns to scale and inter industrial externalities the theory of nominal tariff in general and the well known metzler paradox in particular have been rigorously developed by metzler 14 jones 13 johnson 12 and batra 1 ch 5 among others the analysis has been typically conducted under the strong assumption that the economy is devoid of any inter industrial and or intra industrial externalities some aspects of inter industrial externalities which have played a major role in the development of welfare economics in the past three decades have been explored by chang 3 and herberg kemp and tawada 11 and the implications of intra industrial variable returns to scale which are external to the firms have been examined by eaton and panagariya 7 8 panagariya 9 parai 10 choi and yu 4 5 and beladi 2 many of the standard trade theories have been shown to be significantly affected by the presence of either type of the externalities it is notable that the implications of the externalities for the tariff theory however have not been studied the purpose of this paper thus is to examine several aspects of the standard theory of tariffs in a framework allowing various production externalities specifically we will explore the effects of a change in the tariffs and or the terms of trade on the import demand as well as the effects of tariff on the terms of trade and the domestic price ratio several interesting results emerge from this analysis for example in contrast to the conventional results an improvement in the terms of trade for a given tariff may dampen the import demand and a higher tariff for a given terms of trade may raise it an increase in the tariff rate need not improve the terms of trade and hence may raise the domestic price ratio of the importable good by more than the tariff rate although the presence of inter industrial and intraindustrial externalities does not affect the sufficient condition for the metzler paradox it does modify a necessary condition for the paradox this paper is organized as follows section ii delineates the assumptions and the model section iii examines the effects of tariffs and or the terms of trade on import demands section iv

modeling farm households price responses in the presence of transaction costs and heterogeneity in labor markets we develop a farm household model to analyze price responses of farm households this model incorporates various types of transaction costs as well as labor heterogeneity nonproportional variable transaction costs or labor heterogeneity imply that production and consumption decisions become nonseparable even when the household buys or sells labor an empirical model is estimated using data from midwest poland the results show that nonproportional variable transaction costs and labor heterogeneity significantly influence household behavior not all price elasticities however change significantly if these are neglected

informal export barriers and poverty the author investigates the poverty impacts of informal export barriers like transport costs cumbersome customs practices costly regulations and bribes he models these informal barriers as export taxes that distort the efficient allocation of resources in low income agricultural economies this distortion lowers wages and household agricultural income thereby leading to higher poverty the author investigates the poverty impacts of improving export procedures in moldova this is a unique case study poverty is widespread half of the moldovan population lives in poverty the country is very open and relies on agricultural exports for growth formal trade barriers are fairly liberalized and informal export barriers are common and widespread the author finds that improving export practices would benefit the average moldovan household across the whole income distribution for example halving informal export barriers would cause poverty to decline from 48 3 percent of the population to between 43 3 and 45 5 percent potentially lifting 100 000 180 000 individuals out of poverty

cash cropping and food crop productivity synergies or trade offs the case for promoting export oriented cash crops in africa has generally been based on their direct potential contribution to agricultural productivity and small farmer incomes a relatively neglected avenue of research concerns the synergistic effects that cash cropping can have on other household activities including food production the conventional view that cash crops compete with food crops for land and labour neglects the potential for cash crop schemes to make available inputs on credit management training and other resources that can contribute to food crop productivity which might otherwise not be accessible to farmers if they did not participate in cash crop programs this article builds on previous research by hypothesising key pathways by which cash crops may affect food crop activities and empirically measuring these effects using the case of cotton in gokwe north district in zimbabwe analysis is based on instrumental variable analysis of survey data on 430 rural households in 1996 results indicate that after controlling for household assets education and locational differences households engaging intensively in cotton production obtain higher grain yields than non cotton and marginal cotton producers we also find evidence of regional spill over effects whereby commercialisation schemes induce second round investments in a particular area that provide benefits to all farmers in that region regardless of whether they engage in that commercialisation scheme the study suggests that the potential spill over benefits for food crops through participation in cash crop programs are important to consider in the development of strategies designed to intensify african food crop production

poverty alleviation in mozambique a multi market analysis of the role of food aid abstract the use of food aid in poverty alleviation programs has been hampered by two problems the inability to target to households in need and the disincentive effects on agriculture in this paper we present econometric estimates of in almost ideal demand system aids for households in maputo mozambique and develop a multi market model to show that in maputo imported yellow maize is not only self targeting but that owing to a combination of the low cross price elasticity with locally produced staples particularly white maize and cross border trade in food products the disincentive effects on domestic agriculture have been negligible

moving toward markets labor allocation in rural china abstract china s economic reforms have brought rapid growth in rural off farm employment raising questions about the assumption that rural china is labor surplus and has poorly functioning factor markets we investigate this by testing for separability between household labor demand and supply using panel data we find that separability is rejected overall indicating that factor markets remain underdeveloped nonseparability however is associated with labor surplus in some areas and labor shortage in others moreover separability holds where substantial employment opportunities exist in the wider township suggesting that such employment promotes competitive allocation within villages as well as the inter village movement of resources

consumption and investment in resource pooling family networks this paper examines a novel motive for resource pooling in family networks in rural economies to relax credit constraints and facilitate investment in non collateralizeable assets for which credit market imperfections are most binding we thus complement established literatures examining risk sharing motives for resource transfers within family networks as well as motives based on kinship tax obligations we do so exploiting the progresa program data in which family networks can be identified households are subject to large exogenous resource inflows and detailed responses on consumption and an array of investments can be tracked in a household panel over five years we find that for every dollar that accrues to the family network through progresa transfers food consumption expenditures increase by around 65c for both households eligible for progresa and ineligible members of the same family network hence the marginal propensity of families to invest save out of every dollar is around 35 and we document how this is channelled towards easing credit constraints poorer network members face in financing non collateralizable investments into their children s human capital we show these consumption and investment benefits of being embedded within a family network are sustained five years after households first experience resource transfers from progresa hence the interplay between resource inflows and resource pooling by family networks can place network members on sustained paths out of poverty this article is protected by copyright all rights reserved

indeterminacy of equilibria in a hyperinflationary world experimental evidence the authors design and study an olg experimental economy where the government finances a fixed real deficit through seigniorage the economy has continua of nonstationary rational expectations equilibria and two stationary rational expectations equilibria the authors do not observe nonstationary rational expectations paths observed paths tend to converge close to or somewhat below the low inflation stationary state the adaptive learning hypothesis is consistent with the data in selecting the low inflation stationary state rational expectations equilibrium as a long run stationary equilibrium nevertheless simple adaptive learning models do not capture the market uncertainty or the biases observed in the data copyright 1993 by the econometric society

off farm labor supply and correlated shocks new theoretical insights and evidence from malawi abstractwe offer new conceptual insights into the understanding of occupational choice in uncertain rural environments with a focus on its ex ante before a shock and ex post after a shock consequences for farmers belonging to different portions of the asset distribution we model theoretically the choice between relatively safe subsistence farming higher return but higher risk cash crop activities and off farm labor conditional on preexisting asset allocation and look at the general equilibrium labor market implications of correlated shocks our results backed by evidence from malawi challenge some stylized perceptions in the literature on consumption smoothing via off farm labor supply

further implications of variable returns to scale abstract among those trade theorists who have studied the implications of variable returns to scale it has been almost standard practice to suppose that the variability of returns in each industry is generated by technical intra industrial externalities in the present paper inter industrial as well as intra industrial externalities are admitted the topology of the set of production possibilities and of the locus of competitive outputs as well as the robustness of several standard trade theorems are examined

directional analysis of consumers forecasts of inflation in a small open economy evidence from south korea abstractwe evaluate the directional accuracy of consumers forecasts of inflation in predicting the movement of the actual cpi in a small open economy in order to do so we use a method developed by pesaran and timmermann 2009 based on south korean data by illustrating an application of the new market timing test we show that consumers expectations of inflation are not a useful predictor of the cpi in south korea our findings suggest that the directional accuracy of consumers 1 year ahead forecasts of inflation is not affected by the inflation targeting of the bank of korea our findings also suggest that consumers 1 year ahead forecasts of inflation are scattered away from the bank of korea s inflation target

smallholder timber sale decisions on the amazon frontier abstract we use data from a survey of 2401 households living along the transamazon highway to study timber sales decisions of smallholders settling in amazon native forests we develop an econometric approach to study both the decision to harvest timber and the volume of timber sold that corrects for limited access to loggers leading to possible selection bias incomplete labor markets and differences in property rights regimes that characterize the area we find that irrespective of distance to markets smallholders that have either been settled by incra or have access to credit are more likely to sell wood but those with outside income sources are less likely to sell higher timber prices decrease the likelihood of timber sales the results suggest that timber sales are viewed only as a means for smallholders to reduce immediate cash constraints with some exceptions these results hold across property rights regimes

disarticulation and human welfare in less developed countries disarticulation refers to the juxtaposition of economic sectors with different levels of development and productivity disarticulation is hypothesized to have a negative effect on social well being net of economic development because it inhibits the spread effects generally thought to be associated with economic growth findings are in accord with this hypothesis although the relationship is complex the strongest effects of disarticulation are found among the poorest nations the concept of disarticulation opens a new and promising avenue of research that may help to resolve contradictory findings of recent research on the political economy of growth

agricultural production dietary diversity and climate variability nonseparable household models outline the links between agricultural production and household consumption yet empirical extensions to investigate the effect of production on dietary diversity and diet composition are limited although a significant literature has investigated the calorie income elasticity abstracting from production this paper provides an empirical application of the nonseparable household model linking the effect of exogenous variation in planting season production decisions via climate variability on household dietary diversity using exogenous variation in degree days rainfall and agricultural capital stocks as instruments the effect of production on household dietary diversity at harvest is estimated the empirical specifications estimate production effects on dietary diversity using both agricultural revenue and crop production diversity significant effects of agricultural revenue and crop production diversity on dietary diversity are estimated the dietary diversity production elasticities imply that a 10 percent increase in agricultural revenue or crop diversity results in a 1 8 percent or 2 4 percent increase in dietary diversity respectively these results illustrate that agricultural income growth or increased crop diversity may not be sufficient to ensure improved dietary diversity increases in agricultural revenue do change diet composition estimates of the effect of agricultural income on share of calories by food groups indicate relatively large changes in diet composition on average a 10 percent increase in agricultural revenue makes households 7 2 percent more likely to consume vegetables and 3 5 percent more likely to consume fish and increases the share of tubers consumed by 5 2 percent

poverty targeting resource degradation and heterogeneous endowments a micro simulation analysis of a less favored ethiopian village persistent and widespread poverty in less favored areas lfas is attributed to fragile natural resources and poor markets limited assets may keep households outside the reach of poverty policies targeted at lfas we explored in a stylized manner the role of heterogeneous household assets for 1 policies aimed at poverty reduction 2 within village income inequality and 3 soil erosion with a farm household micro simulation model we analyzed for each household in a remote ethiopian village three sets of policies technology improvement infrastructure investment and off farm employment through migration or cash for work cfw programs combating poverty with a single policy migratory off farm employment reduces the poverty headcount most because of self selection cfw programs performed best in terms of reaching the poorest of the poor cfw also reduced within village income inequality most while a price band reduction increased income inequality only technology improvements resulted in a trade off between poverty and soil erosion price band and off farm employment policies reduced erosion while outperforming technology improvements in terms of poverty reduction we found that combining two policies was most helpful in assisting poorer households to overcome the limitations of their asset endowments a cfw program combined with reduced price bands yielded most in terms of poverty reduction and income inequality this policy complementarity is however less important for better endowed households reducing the reliance of households on agriculture offered a win win situation of reducing poverty and maintaining natural resources combining policies helped to overcome asset limitations to target policies to the poorest households and to reduce income inequalities

economic reform growth and the poor evidence from rural ethiopia abstract a new decomposition of poverty changes is developed to analyse the determinants of poverty changes during a period of economic reform 1989 1995 in villages in ethiopia poverty fell substantially but with diverse experiences across villages shocks mattered but the main factors driving consumption changes were relative prices changes resulting in changes in the returns to land labour human capital and location the experience of the poor is mixed one group of the poor in 1989 with relatively good land and location outperformed all other households while another group with much poorer endowments and location experienced virtually unchanged and persistent poverty

income distribution in rice growing villages during the post green revolution periods the philippine case 1985 and 1998 this paper aims to examine changes in household income sources and its impact on household income distribution in the post green revolution periods in 1985 and 1998 in the rural philippines we found that there has been a structural shift of household income away from farm in favor of nonfarm labor income sources this finding indicates that rural development is being led by nonfarm sectors such a shift has resulted in an increase in household income inequality as the distribution of nonfarm income has become less equal over time and was markedly more unequal than that of farm income in 1998

the impacts of hybrid maize seed on the welfare of farming households in kenya this paper explores the impacts of hybrid maize adoption on the welfare of farming households in kenya we use a four year panel dataset to estimate the effects of hybrid seed use on four indicators of household welfare namely income assets inequality and poverty results show that use of hybrid seed not only contributes to higher annual income but also to raising the value of assets possibly reflecting longer term welfare effects further we find that use of hybrid seed reduces the depth of poverty and that the amount planted reduces inequality as expected impacts differ between major and minor maize growing areas of the country maize farmers who do not use hybrid seed are clearly disadvantaged this calls for continued public and private investments in the infrastructure and policy process that supports a competitive liberalized seed industry and improved access of smallholder farmers to well adapted affordable hybrids

the performance of forecast based monetary policy rules under model uncertainty we investigate the performance of forecast based monetary policy rules using five macroeconomic models that reflect a wide range of views on aggregate dynamics we identify the key characteristics of rules that are robust to model uncertainty such rules respond to the one year ahead inflation forecast and to the current output gap and incorporate a substantial degree of policy inertia in contrast rules with longer forecast horizons are less robust and are prone to generating indeterminacy in light of these results we identify a robust benchmark rule that performs very well in all five models over a wide range of policy preferences