income dispersion and counter cyclical markups recent advances in measuring cyclical changes in the income distribution raise new questions how might these distributional changes affect the business cycle itself we show how counter cyclical income dispersion can generate counter cyclical markups in the goods market without any preference shocks or price setting frictions in recessions idiosyncratic labor productivity shocks raise income dispersion lower the price elasticity of demand and increase imperfectly competitive firms optimal markups the calibrated model explains not only many cyclical features of markups but also cyclical and long run patterns of standard business cycle aggregates

the future of macroeconomics macro theory and models at the bank of england abstract the adoption as policy models by central banks of representative agent new keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models has been widely criticised including for their simplistic micro foundations at the bank of england the previous generation of policy models is seen in its 1999 medium term macro model mtmm instead of improving that model to correct its considerable flaws many shared by other non dsge policy models such as the federal reserve s frb us it was replaced in 2004 by the dsge based beqm though this clearly failed during and after the global financial crisis it was replaced in 2011 by the dsge compass complemented by a suite of models we provide a general critique of dsge models for explaining forecasting and policy analyses at central banks and suggest new directions for improving current empirical macroeconomic models based on empirical modelling broadly consistent with better theory rather than seeking to impose simplistic and unrealistic theory

wealth accumulation over the life cycle and precautionary savings this article constructs and simulates a life cycle model of wealth accumulation and estimates the parameters of the utility function the rate of time preference and the coefficient of risk aversion by matching the simulated median wealth profiles with those observed in the panel study of income dynamics and in the survey of consumer finances the estimates imply a low degree of patience and a high degree of risk aversion the results are used to study the importance of precautionary savings in explaining wealth accumulation they imply that wealth accumulation is driven mostly by precautionary motives at the beginning of the life cycle whereas savings for retirement purposes become significant only closer to retirement

selection of energy performance contracting business models a behavioral decision making approach abstract as a market based mechanism which can actively promote energy efficiency energy performance contracting epc is now universally accepted throughout china and has been incorporated into various business models four of these business models are frequently adopted in china the share savings model the guaranteed savings model the energy cost trust model and the finance lease model the choice of a suitable business model has been recognized as one of the most important factors in the effective implementation of epc projects in this paper the selection of epc business models is formulated as a multi criteria decision making mcdm problem when selecting an epc business model it is natural for decision makers dms to express their preferences opinions in linguistic terms given the characteristics of epc projects taking dms psychological behavior into account is of considerable and realistic significance todim an acronym in portuguese of interactive and multicriteria decision making has been verified as an effective behavioral decision making method to address the problem of epc business model selection an extended todim method based on multi granularity linguistic terms and entropy measure is proposed the sensitivity and comparison analyses show that dms psychological behavior can affect the selection order with respect to the given epc business models one case of a real life campus epc project demonstrates that the validity and applicability of the proposed extended todim method for solving the epc business model selection problem

wealth distribution in life cycle economies abstract this paper compares the age wealth distribution produced in life cycle economies to the corresponding distribution in the us economy the idea is to calibrate the model economies to match features of the us earnings distribution and then examine the wealth distribution implications of the model economies the findings are that the calibrated model economies with earnings and lifetime uncertainty can replicate measures of both aggregate wealth and transfer wealth in the us furthermore the model economies produce the us wealth gini and a significant fraction of the wealth inequality within age groups however the model economies produce less than half the fraction of wealth held by the top 1 percent of us households

equilibrium heterogeneous agent models as measurement tools some monte carlo evidence abstract this paper discusses a series of monte carlo experiments designed to evaluate the empirical properties of heterogeneous agent macroeconomic models in the presence of sampling variability the calibration procedure leads to the welfare analysis being conducted with the wrong parameters the ability of the calibrated model to correctly predict the long run welfare changes induced by a set of policy experiments is assessed the results show that for the policy reforms with sizable welfare effects i e more than 0 2 the model always predicts the right sign of the welfare effects however the welfare effects can be evaluated with the wrong sign when they are small and when the sample size is fairly limited quantitatively the maximum errors made in evaluating a policy change are very small for some reforms in the order of 0 02 percentage points but bigger for others in the order of 0 6 percentage points finally having access to better data in terms of larger samples does lead to substantial increases in the precision of the welfare effects estimates though the rate of convergence can be slow

do demographics prevent consumption aggregates from reflecting micro level preferences abstract most simulated micro founded macro models use solely consumer demand aggregates in order to estimate preference parameters of a representative consumer for use in policy evaluation focusing on dynamic models with time separable preferences we show that aggregation holds if and only if momentary utility functions fall in the identical shape harmonic absolute risk aversion ishara utility class identifying which parameters of ishara utility functions are allowed to vary over time given this theoretical result it should be easy to empirically reject the aggregation properties that the macroeconomic representative consumer identification approach requires it suffices to show that permanent incomes guaranteeing the same living standard across households of different size violate an affine relationship in order to test the validity of this affine equation we develop a vignette survey that produces appropriate data without demand estimation restrictions imposed by models surprisingly in six countries this equation is not rejected lending support to using consumer demand aggregates

requiem for the representative consumer aggregate implications of microeconomic consumption behavior macroeconomists pursuing microfoundations for aggregate consumption have generally adopted one of two approaches either to model microeconomic consumption behavior carefully and then to aggregate or to thoroughly understand the behavior of a representative consumer in general equilibrium then to introduce microeconomic risk and heterogeneity the broad conclusion from the bottom up approach has been that precautionary saving and microeconomic heterogeneity can profoundly change behavior stephen p zeldes 1989 angus s deaton 1991 christopher d carroll 1992 the broad conclusion from the top down approach has been that precautionary saving is of little importance in determining the aggregate capital stock s rao aiyagari 1994 per krusell and anthony a smith 1998 leading some economists to conclude that heterogeneity is unimportant for macroeconomic purposes this paper shows that while general equilibrium effects do imply that the aggregate magnitude of precautionary saving is modest nevertheless when a model with uninsurable idiosyncratic risk is modified so that it can match the key micro facts it produces behavior very different in important respects from that produced by the representative agent economy this leads to the conclusion that for many purposes the representative consumer model should be abandoned in favor of a model which matches key microeconomic facts this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

review of us esco industry market trends an empirical analysis of project data abstract this comprehensive empirical analysis of us energy service company esco industry trends and performance employs two parallel analytical approaches a survey of firms to estimate total industry size and a database of 1500 esco projects from which we report target markets and typical project characteristics energy savings and customer economics we estimate that industry investment for energy efficiency related services reached us 2 billion in 2000 following a decade of strong growth esco activity is concentrated in states with high economic activity and strong policy support typical projects save 150 200 mj m2 year and are cost effective with median benefit cost ratios of 1 6 and 2 1 for institutional and private sector projects the median simple payback time spt is 7 years among institutional customers 3 years is typical in the private sector reliance on dsm incentives has decreased since 1995 preliminary evidence suggests that state enabling policies have boosted the industry in medium sized states escos have proven resilient in the face of restructuring and will probably shift toward selling energy solutions with energy efficiency part of a package we conclude that appropriate policy support both financial and non financial can jump start a viable private sector energy efficiency services industry that targets large institutional and commercial industrial customers

the economics of energy service contracts energy service contracting can provide a cost effective route to overcoming barriers to energy efficiency energy service contracts allow the client to reduce operating costs transfer risk and concentrate attention on core activities however the energy services model may only be appropriate for a subset of energy services and energy using organisations a challenge for both business strategy and public policy is to identify those situations in which energy service contracting is most likely to be appropriate and the conditions under which it is most likely to succeed energy service contracting is a form of outsourcing it will only be chosen where the expected reduction in the production cost of supplying energy services can more than offset the transaction cost of negotiating and managing the relationship with the energy service provider production costs will be determined by a combination of the physical characteristics of the energy system and the technical efficiency of the relevant organisational arrangements including economies of scale and specialisation transaction costs in turn will be determined by the complexity of the energy service the specificity of the investments made by the contractor the competitiveness of the energy services market and the relevant legal financial and regulatory rules this paper develops these ideas into a general framework that may be used to assess the feasibility of energy service contracting in different circumstances the framework leads to a number of hypotheses that are suitable for empirical test

the reaction of household consumption to predictable changes in social security taxes the key implication of rational expectations and the basic life cycle permanent income hypothesis that predictable changes in income have no effect on the growth rate of consumption expenditures is examined this implication is important for understanding the effectiveness and optimal timing of fiscal policy the causes and propagation of business cycles and the effects of income fluctuations on the growth rate of the economy using household level consumption data from the consumer expenditure survey whether expenditures on nondurable goods increase contemporaneously with predictable changes in social security tax withholding is tested it is found that households do change their consumption expenditures in response to the predictable fluctuations in income induced by the social security tax system

relative wage movements and the distribution of consumption we analyze how relative wage movements among birth cohorts and education groups affected the distribution of household consumption and economic welfare our empirical work draws on the best available cross sectional data sets to construct synthetic panel data on u s consumption labor supply and wages during the 1980s we find that low frequency movements in the cohort education structure of pretax hourly wages among men drove large changes in the distribution of household consumption the results constitute a spectacular failure of between group consumption insurance a failure not explained by existing theories of informationally constrained optimal consumption behavior a welfare analysis indicates that the cost of between group consumption variability is larger than the cost of aggregate consumption variability by two orders of magnitude

a theory of the consumption function with and without liquidity constraints fifteen years ago milton friedman s 1957 treatise a theory of the consumption function seemed badly dated dynamic optimization theory had not been employed much in economics when friedman wrote and utility theory was still comparatively primitive so his statement of the permanent income hypothesis never actually specified a formal mathematical model of behavior derived explicitly from utility maximization instead friedman relied at crucial points on intuition and verbal descriptions of behavior although these descriptions sounded plausible when other economists subsequently found multiperiod maximizing models that could be solved explicitly the implications of those models differed sharply from friedman s intuitive description of his model furthermore empirical tests in the 1970s and 1980s often rejected these rigorous versions of the permanent income hypothesis in favor of an alternative hypothesis that many households simply spent all of their current income today with the benefit of a further round of mathematical and computational advances friedman s 1957 original analysis looks more prescient than primitive it turns out that when there is meaningful uncertainty in future labor income the optimal behavior of moderately impatient consumers is much better described by friedman s original statement of the permanent income hypothesis than by the later explicit maximizing versions furthermore in a remarkable irony much of the empirical evidence that rejected the permanent income hypothesis as specified in tests of the 1970s and 1980s is actually consistent both with friedman s original description of the model and with the new version with serious uncertainty there are four key differences between the explicit maximizing models

saving and liquidity constraints this paper is concerned with the theory of saving when consumers are not permitted to borrow and with the ability of such a theory to account for some of the stylized facts of saving behavior the models presented in the paper seem to account for important aspects of reality that are not explained by traditional life cycle models copyright 1991 by the econometric society

imperfect insurance and differing propensities to consume across households abstract this paper extends previous tests of consumption insurance by splitting the sample to examine whether the marginal propensity to consume mpc out of idiosyncratic income shocks is larger for low wealth households than it is for high wealth households using data from the psid i find 1 the mpc of low wealth households is higher than that of high wealth households there are indications that both precautionary savings behavior and liquidity constraints contribute to this difference 2 splitting the data using two different measures of wealth indicates that households perceive housing equity as illiquid 3 when low wealth households are split into two subgroups the mpc of the very low wealth group is smaller reflecting the insurance aspects of means tested safety net programs

a new approach to business fluctuations heterogeneous interacting agents scaling laws and financial fragility abstract in this paper we discuss a scaling approach to business fluctuations our starting point consists in recognizing that concepts and methods derived from physics have allowed economists to re discover a set of stylized facts which have to be satisfactorily accounted for in their models standard macroeconomics based on a reductionist approach centered on the representative agent is definitely badly equipped for this task on the contrary we show that a simple financial fragility agent based model based on complex interactions of heterogeneous agents is able to replicate a large number of scaling type stylized facts with a remarkable high degree of statistical precision

explaining the contract terms of energy performance contracting in china the importance of effective financing abstract energy service company esco uses energy performance contracting epc to provide energy saving services to its clients under an epc both esco and the client invest in the energy efficiency measures according to a negotiated share of investment within the length of the contract the esco and its client divide up the saved energy bill according to a negotiated share once the contract expires the client claims all of the saved energy bills if the energy efficiency measures still last different epc projects have different contract terms including total investment share of investment and length of contract these contract terms directly determine the resulted energy savings thus it is essential and important to look at how these contract terms are formed and what are the major influencing factors this paper first builds a theoretical bargain model between esco and its client to find out the structural relationship among these contract terms then using the information of about 140 epc contracts in china in 2010 and 2011 the paper empirically estimates the impacts of various factors on the contract terms and the resulted energy savings we find that cost of capitals for escos and the clients especially for escos is a major factor influencing contract terms and the resulted energy savings thus providing effective financing is critical for the development of epc in china

income and wealth heterogeneity in the macroeconomy how do movements in the distribution of income and wealth affect the macroeconomy we analyze this question using a calibrated version of the stochastic growth model with partially uninsurable idiosyncratic risk and movements in aggregate productivity our main finding is that in the stationary stochastic equilibrium the behavior of the macroeconomic aggregates can be almost perfectly described using only the mean of the wealth distribution this result is robust to substantial changes in both parameter values and model specification our benchmark model whose only difference from the representative agent framework is the existence of uninsurable idiosyncratic risk displays far less cross sectional dispersion and skewness in wealth than u s data however an extension that relies on a small amount of heterogeneity in thrift does succeed in replicating the key features of the wealth data furthermore this extension features aggregate time series that depart significantly from permanent income behavior

policy redesign for solving the financial bottleneck in demand side management dsm in china abstract dsm is one of the best and most practical policy tools for china to balance environmental protection and economic growth however the bottleneck lies in the lack of long term stable sufficient and gradually increasing funds to flow into dsm projects the author redesigns the practical system benefit charge sbc policy which will provide long term and stable funding for dsm the policy to facilitate the financial support from banking sector and capital market and investigates the possibility of dsm funding from cdm projects sbc is the best way to boost long term stable and sufficient funding for dsm at present in china the current low inflation rate and natural resource price are favored to expedite the implementation of sbc and dsm developments with regard to the uneven development china needs to design relative policies to offset the impact in different areas such as tax reduction and fiscal subsides it is time for china to develop a definite and clear target and timetable to implement dsm which will give the public and enterprises a definite and clear expectation for the future the government should publicize a clear and integrated dsm development plan and relative policy outline in the near medium and long term

the neoclassical growth model with heterogeneous quasi geometric consumers this paper investigates how the assumption of quasi geometric hyperbolic discounting affects the distributional implications of the standard one sector neoclassical growth model with infinitely lived heterogeneous agents the agents are subject to idiosyncratic shocks and face borrowing constraints we confine attention to an interior markov recursive equilibrium the consequence of quasi geometric discounting is that the effective discount factor of an agent is not a constant but an endogenous variable which depends on the agent s current state we show both analytically and by simulation that this new feature can significantly affect the distributional implications of the neoclassical growth model

a simple test of consumption insurance are consumers effectively insured against idiosyncratic shocks to income or wealth either by formal institutions such as charities private insurance and government programs or by informal mechanisms such as gifts and loans from relatives friends and neighbors under full insurance consumption growth should be cross sectionally independent of idiosyncratic variables that are exogenous to consumers this proposition is tested by cross sectional regressions of consumption growth on a variety of exogenous variables full insurance is rejected for long illness and involuntary job loss but not for spells of unemployment loss of work due to strike and an involuntary move

the response of household consumption to income tax refunds a central implication of the life cycle or permanent income theory is that consumption should not respond to predictable fluctuations in income tests of this implication have yielded mixed results especially on micro data angus deaton 1992 martin browning and annamaria lusardi 1996 in large part this might be due to the difficulties of isolating the predictable component of income at the micro level most tests proceed by instrumenting for income but since the available instruments are typically poor such tests might be prejudiced against finding significant excess sensitivity of consumption to income john shea 1995 also it is not clear how closely the resulting econometric predictions of income coincide with agents actual expectations of income to avoid these difficulties this paper examines the response of household consumption to a particular type of income that is both predictable and transitory income tax refunds since a refund depends on events in the previous calendar year it is predictable income as regards consumption in the year of its receipt consequently under the life cycle theory consumption should not increase on receipt of a refund 2 in addition to testing the canonical model of consumption this paper provides estimates interpretable as the marginal propensity to consume mpc out of refunds since federal tax refunds now amount to over 80 billion per year averaging well over 1 000 per refund these estimates are of interest in themselves more generally they bear on the impact of even preannounced and temporary changes in fiscal policy the paper begins by surveying related studies in section i section ii describes the data the consumer expenditure survey cex which of the leading u s micro data sets has the most comprehensive coverage of expenditure the empirical specification is set out in section hi section iv reports the results and section v concludes

analysis of esco activities using country indicators energy service companies escos are private sector instruments that offer energy emission improvement energy saving energy efficiency energy conservation emission reduction projects in the developed and in some developing countries literature reveals that energy emission improvements of countries may be related to their innovation and r d activity levels in this work we use a literature data on the activities and the sectors targeted by escos in 38 countries summarized in terms of the age of esco market aem number of esco companies ne and total value of esco projects ve along with the global innovation index gii data of the countries we investigate the relationships among the esco indicators eis aem ne ve sectors targeted by escos and the country indicators cis gii and per capita gdp energy consumption co2 emission we observe noteworthy dependencies between the eis and cis using the simple trend equations we estimate the missing ves in the original data we also project as a hint for the size and orientation of the upcoming turkish esco market the set of eis and the distribution of the sectors that are likely to be targeted by escos in turkey

does the japanese stock market price bank risk evidence from financial firm failures the ability of the japanese stock market to appropriately price the riskiness of japanese financial firms has been frequently questioned particularly in light of japan s widespread financial distress in recent years and poor disclosure requirements this paper examines the response in equity returns of japanese banks to the failure of four commercial banks and two securities firms between 1995 and 1998 using event study methodology the analysis finds that share prices of surviving banks on the whole responded unfavorably to the failures and that financially weaker survivors were more adversely affected this suggests that despite the distress and alleged opaqueness bank shareholders were able to use available indicators of financial condition both to incorporate new information quickly into stock prices and to differentiate among banks

factors influencing commercial buildings to obtain green certificates abstractidentifying the key factors that influence commercial buildings decision to obtain voluntary green certificates is essential to building sustainability enhancement using commercial buildings in the state of new york multinomial logit and nested logit models demonstrate that there is a significant correlation between the characteristics of commercial buildings such as square footage lot size and years built and green certification more interestingly if a commercial building is occupied by its owner likelihood of green certification is actually smaller this finding not only confirms that ongoing energy savings are heavily discounted when deciding whether to incur the upfront cost of green certification but also suggests that the rental premium enjoyed by green buildings is likely greater in terms of present value than the expected operating cost savings another explanation could be that investor owners must operate in a competitive market for tenants while owner occupiers do not operate

heterogeneous agents and uninsurable idiosyncratic employment shocks in a linearized dynamic general equilibrium model this paper proposes an analytical solution method for a dynamic general equilibrium model with heterogeneous agents and uninsurable idiosyncratic employment shocks the solution method yields an approximate balanced growth path which depends on the unemployment rate and the unemployment risk but which is independent of the ever changing wealth distribution

on the concavity of the consumption function at least since keynes 1935 many economists have had the intuition that the marginal propensity to consume out of wealth declines as wealth increases nonetheless standard perfect certainty and certainty equivalent versions of intertemporal optimizing models of consumption imply a marginal propensity to consume that is unrelated to the level of household wealth we show that adding income uncertainty to the standard optimization problem induces a concave consumption function in which as keynes suggested the marginal propensity to consume out of wealth or transitory income declines with the level of wealth