market based transmission expansion planning restructuring and deregulation has exposed transmission planner to new objectives and uncertainties therefore new criteria and approaches are needed for transmission planning in deregulated environments a new market based approach for transmission planning in deregulated environments is presented in this paper the main contribution of this research is i introducing a new probabilistic tool named probabilistic locational marginal prices for computing the probability density functions of nodal prices ii defining new market based criteria for transmission expansion planning in deregulated environments and iii presenting a new approach for transmission expansion planning in deregulated environments using the above tool and criteria the advantages of this approach are i it encourages and facilitates competition among all participants ii it provides nondiscriminatory access to cheap generation for all consumers iii it considers all random and nonrandom power system uncertainties and selects the final plan after risk assessment of all solutions and iv it is value based and considers investment cost operation cost congestion cost load curtailment cost and cost caused by system unreliability the presented approach is applied to ieee 30 bus test system

economic transmission augmentation with explicit modeling of the competition benefit this paper derives and evaluates a mathematical structure for identifying economically efficient transmission augmentations the mathematical structure is based on the concepts of sequential move and simultaneous move games in applied mathematics the nash equilibrium solution concept has been reformulated as an optimization problem in the proposed structure the problem of multiple nash equilibria is managed by introducing the concept of the worst case nash equilibrium both the economic concepts of the efficiency benefit and competition benefit of the transmission capacity are explicitly modeled in the proposed structure a simple three bus example system and garver s example system are employed and modified to suit the purpose of analysis a thorough economic study of these example systems is presented to highlight the concept and operation of the proposed mathematical structure from different perspectives the results demonstrate the utility of the proposed structure for measuring the total economic efficiency benefit of additional transmission capacity

network planning in unbundled power systems in this paper a new approach for network planning in unbundled power systems is presented the approach takes into account the desires of demand customers power producers system operator network owner s and regulator in network planning competition reliability flexibility of operation transmission expansion cost and environmental impacts are used as planning criteria in order to consider the importance degrees of stakeholders and planning criteria in network planning first importance degrees of stakeholders and planning criteria are determined by a presented new method then importance degrees of stakeholders and planning criteria are aggregated with appropriateness degrees of expansion plans to compute a fuzzy index for measuring the goodness of expansion plans the final plan is selected using the presented fuzzy risk assessment method the approach is applied to an eight bus test system

environmental and social degradation as the engine of economic growth abstract in this paper a commonly owned resource an environmental or social asset and a private good are substitutes in consumption the households can buy the private good on the market while the resource is available for free the resource is renewable but its ability to regenerate declines with the level of aggregate production each single firm producing the private good has only a negligible impact on the resource but the impact caused by the entire population of firms is considerable in the face of a decrease in the stock of the resource households are induced to increase their participation in market activities in order to raise their income and buy more private goods hence each household contributes to a further increase in aggregate production thus causing additional damage to the resource s ability to regenerate and feeding the growth process given the presence of negative externalities multiple equilibrium paths are possible in this situation social conventions may guide individuals to coordinate expectations and behavior toward a particular steady state one can speculate that the dominance of cultural values favorable to a lifestyle based on a mix of high consumption and hard work leads the economy to converge on a pareto inferior steady state

deregulation privatization and competition transmission planning under uncertainty competitive markets expose transmission planners to new uncertainties these are handled using a decision analysis approach whose key contribution is quantifying and minimizing risk the method is applied using existing and generally available software tools the result is transmission plan which is robust in the face of uncertainties a study of a major proposed central american interconnection illustrates the problem and the method

antipoverty transfers and labour market outcomes regression discontinuity design findings abstractthe article estimates the impact of familias en accion a human development conditional cash transfer programme on adult labour market outcomes in urban areas in colombia relying on a regression discontinuity design and a large panel dataset the article finds significant largely positive but heterogeneous programme effects on labour market outcomes the findings suggest that antipoverty transfers enable a re allocation of household productive resources among participant households

two stage robust generation expansion planning a mixed integer linear programming model this paper presents a new uncertainty handling framework for optimal generation expansion planning gep amalgamating the notions of single stage and two stage robust optimization ro the proposed multiyear robust gep methodology as a tractable mixed integer linear programming optimization problem copes with the inherent planning uncertainties associated with forecasted electricity load demand as well as estimated investment and operation costs through distribution free bounded intervals producing polyhedral uncertainty sets the optimal generation expansion plan obtained from the proposed ro approach is immunized against worst case planning uncertainties considering the adopted degree of conservatism for each uncertainty set therefore the proposed methodology is capable of controlling the robustness of the optimal investment schedule regarding the enforced planning uncertainties simulation results demonstrate the efficacy and efficiency of the proposed ro framework throughout gep studies

aggregate structural macroeconomic analysis a reconsideration and defence aggregate structural macroeconomic analysis asma is frequently criticised for being ad hoc and justified if at all only as a pragmatic expedient this paper argues instead that asma is consistent with the principles of well established bodies of social theory appeal to these principles reveals that asma is adequate and likely even necessary for the successful prosecution of macroeconomic inquiry

complementary credit networks and macroeconomic stability switzerland s wirtschaftsring abstract the swiss wirtschaftsring economic circle credit network founded in 1934 provides residual spending power that is highly counter cyclical individuals are cash short in a recession and economize by greater use of wir credits a money in the production function mipf specification implies that transactions in wir form a stabilizing balance that makes up for the lack of ordinary currency thus unlike the ordinary money wir money is negatively correlated with gdp in the short run this implication is confirmed by empirical estimates such credit networks play a stabilizing role that should be considered in monetary policy

exploitation of electric drive vehicles in electricity markets the paper presents the optimization algorithm which may eventually be used by electric energy suppliers to coordinate charging and discharging of electric drive vehicles edvs exploited in electricity markets the research is focused on a day ahead market and a provision of system regulation in an ancillary service market the proposed optimization minimizes the charging costs that can be partly compensated with profits obtained from participation in the energy markets due to the stochastic nature of transportation patterns the monte carlo simulation is applied to model uncertainties presented by numerous scenarios to reduce the problem complexity the simulated driving patterns are not individually considered in the optimization but clustered into fleets using the gams scenred tool uncertainties of energy requirements in the market and energy prices are presented by statistical central moments that are further considered in hong s 2 point 1 estimation method in order to define points considered in the optimization finally each energy supplier has to offer competitive energy prices to edv users for transportation due to uncertainties the final prices cannot be deterministically calculated thus the paper proposes the risk based approach applying value at risk case studies illustrate the application of the proposed optimization in achieving competitive prices for edv users

old age benefits and retirement decisions of rural elderly in brazil abstract i estimate the impact of social security benefits on retirement decisions of rural workers by studying changes in the rules governing old age benefits for rural workers in brazil i focus on a reform implemented in 1991 which reduced the minimum eligibility age increased benefits and extended the program to non heads of households because those benefits come with no strings attached they are not means or retirement tested any behavioral response is a pure income effect the main finding of the paper is that access to old age benefits is a strong determinant of retirement of rural workers in brazil receiving old age benefits increases the probability of not working by about thirty eight percentage points and reduces total hours per week by 22 h

beyond microfoundations post walrasian macroeconomics about the authors preface 1 overview david colander part i the post walrasian macroeconomic vision 2 taking markets seriously groundwork for a post walrasian macroeconomics robert clower and peter howitt 3 towards a not too rational macroeconomics axel leijonhufvud 4 the macrofoundations of micro david colander part ii the underpinnings of post walrasian macroeconomics 5 the evolution of macroeconomics the origins of post walrasian economics perry mehrling 6 chaos theory and post walrasian macroeconomics j barkley rosser jr 7 marshallian general equilibrium analysis david colander part iii modelling a post walrasian economy 8 heterogeneity aggregation and a meaningful macroeconomics robert j martel 9 walras complexity and post walrasian macroeconomics david m reaume 10 team coordination problems and macroeconomic models john bryant 11 competitive market disequilibrium a post walrasian analysis of investment john bryant part iv new structuralist macroeconomics vs post walrasian macroeconomics 12 endogenizing the natural rate of unemployment phelps s structural slumps and the post walrasian framework hans van ees and harry garretsen 13 post walrasian macroeconomic policy david colander and hans van ees part v appendix literature survey an annotated bibliography on the macro foundation of post walrasian economics hans van ees and harry garretsen name index subject index

social transfers and growth what do we know what do we need to find out summary the paper examines the extent to which emerging social transfer programs in developing countries can improve the productive capacity of households in poverty and contribute to micro level growth it introduces a basic framework linking transfers to growth mediating processes and productive capacity outcomes this is then used to organize and assess relevant findings from program evaluation studies the paper concludes that social transfer programs can have positive effects on the productive capacity of poor and poorest groups but further research is needed to identify and measure the size and significance of these effects

flexible transmission expansion planning with uncertainties in an electricity market deregulation of the electric power industry has introduced new uncertainties for market participants and made planning of transmission expansion more difficult more flexible transmission expansion plans are needed to cope with the increased risks in this paper a novel planning approach is proposed to meet the above challenge in our approach the planning process is modeled as a mixed integer nonlinear programming minlp problem so that conflicting objectives can be optimized simultaneously to minimize planning risks our method identifies several scenarios based on statistics and expert knowledge the most flexible expansion plan is selected as the plan that has least adaptation cost the proposed method is tested with the ieee 14 bus system promising results are obtained to demonstrate the effectiveness of our method

social transfers and growth evidence from luminosity data abstractthe effects of social transfers on growth are still unclear the limitations of national accounts at subnational levels in developing countries have confined the analysis to the use of simulation models and household level experimental data this article contributes to the empirical literature by assessing the effects of colombia s familias en accion a human development cash transfer program on municipal growth rates and per capita growth the staggered introduction of the program in 2001 4 facilitated an identification strategy based on a difference in differences estimation the lack of subnational gdp data is tackled by using luminosity data generated by satellites orbiting the earth which have demonstrated to be a suitable proxy for economic growth the results show that the program generates significant positive effects on municipal growth rates

long term uncertainty evaluation of pool electricity markets abstract pool electricity markets are cleared under the strong assumption of having a perfectly known future in real life this is anything but true the inability to predict the random parameters of the supply and the demand function introduces risk into the market clearing process therefore the main interest is to minimize such risk by means of a trade off of the mean and the variance of the social cost function this paper considers random variations on the levels and on the slopes of the quadratic supply and demand functions correlation is considered between the corresponding coefficients of the supply and demand curves by means of the mean variance markowitz theory the risk introduced by these random variations is analyzed a comprehensive analysis on the effects that the mean variance markowitz theory has on the nodal spot prices and on the point elasticities of the supply and demand curves is made the non linear optimization model presented in this paper is validated through a three a six and a 21 node system

conditional transfers labor supply and poverty microsimulating oportunidades this article summarizes a microsimulation exercise for the mexican human development program oportunidades and presents a series of simulations of its actual and potential impact upon poverty at the national urban and rural levels the microsimulation tool used for this paper makes accounting and behavioral exercises and aims to answer three main questions what would have happened to poverty if the program had been cancelled if benefits were doubled or if urban beneficiaries were doubled we conclude that oportunidades can be associated with up to a third of the reduction in rural poverty in mexico by the year 2002 doubling benefits and targeting urban beneficiaries would reduce poverty a further 30 percent from its 2002 level we also find that each percentage point of poverty reduction at the rural level costs around 326 million pesos per month in cash transfers that is 1 2 percent of the central government s total spending in 2002 further reductions of poverty would have higher or lower average costs depending on the area and on whether they are performed either by extensions in coverage or by enlargement of benefits finally behavioral simulations suggest that labor supply does not seem to be much affected by current cash transfers from oportunidades

conditional cash transfers adult work incentives and poverty conditional cash transfer cct programs aim to alleviate poverty through monetary and in kind benefits as well as reduce future levels of poverty by encouraging investments in education health and nutrition the success of cct programs at reducing poverty depends on whether and the extent to which cash transfers affect adult work incentives the authors examine whether the progresa program of mexico affects adult participation in the labor market and overall adult leisure time and they link these effects to the impact of the program on poverty using the experimental design of progresa s evaluation sample the authors find that the program does not have any significant effect on adult labor force participation and leisure time their findings on adult work incentives are reinforced further by the result that progresa leads to a substantial reduction in poverty the poverty reduction effects are stronger for the poverty gap and severity of poverty measures

a transmission planning framework considering future generation expansions in electricity markets this paper proposes a transmission planning framework in a market environment in which only the generation sector is deregulated the proposed framework is based on modeling generation companies gencos strategic behavior and anticipating their expansion patterns from the viewpoint of a transmission system planner the transmission expansion planning problem in this paper is modeled as a four level optimization problem a solution method based on agent based systems and search based optimization techniques is proposed to determine the optimal transmission expansion plan

the stories we tell a reconsideration of as ad analysis this paper explains that the as ad model as currently presented in the tests is seriously flawed it does not fulfill the minimum requirement of a model logical consistency its component parts are derived from models that reflect different and inconsistent models of the economy moreover the appropriate disequilibrium adjustment story that appropriately accompanies it is inconsistent with observed reality in this alternative model keynesian adjustment occurs through shifting as ad curves along institutionally determined price level vectors rather than through movements along the as ad curves

transmission network planning under security and environmental constraints this paper explores the impact of co2 emission trading on capacity planning of electric power transmission systems two different models for annual emission costs are assumed the co2 emission price is modeled as a probability density function in the transmission network planning problem the monte carlo technique is deployed to simulate the co2 emission price volatility the transmission network planning problem is formulated as a mixed integer optimization whose objective is to minimize the sum of annual generator operating costs and annuitized transmission investment costs over different demand levels subject to n 1 network security constraints as well as operating limits on system components the overall problem is formulated within the framework of a linear dc optimal power flow incorporating binary decision variables to model the lumpy nature of transmission investment a linear model of losses is also proposed and included in the dc power flow model the proposed approach can be used to determine the most probable optimal transmission capacity the methodology is demonstrated through case studies simulated on the ieee 24 bus network