high risk low return and vice versa the effect of product innovation on firm performance in a transition economy common wisdom suggests that high risk strategies will be associated with high expected returns and vice versa focusing on the effect of new product development on firm performance in this paper

attitudes toward risk and the risk return paradox prospect theory explanations this study attempted to explain bowman s risk return paradox in terms of recent research in behavioral decision theory and prospect theory the research emphasized the role of reference or target

explaining presidential priorities the competing aspiration levels model of macrobudgetary decision making this article develops a new statistical model of trade offs among defense nondefense and fiscal policy concerns as they are reflected in the presidential budgetary process the competing aspiration levels model calm builds on crecine s 1971 great identity argument unlike most previous attempts to model presidential budgeting calm explicitly represents the interdependence of decisions about defense nondefense and totalfederal expenditures calm models this interdependence as the result of the interaction of minimal aspirations for defense and nondefense expenditures with a maximum acceptable level of expenditures from a fiscal policy standpoint statistical analyses of presidential budgets for the fiscal years from 1955 through 1980 provide strong support for the calm formulation substantively the results indicate that fiscal constraints on total expenditures have progressively weakened that the maximum acceptable expenditure level has generally exceeded the minimal expenditure aspiration level and that when a potential fiscal surplus has existed the nondefense sector has been more successful in capturing a share of this surplus than the defense sector in keeping with traditional incrementalist arguments the results indicate that previous year expenditure levels provide a relatively secure budgetary base for both the defense and nondefense sectors both sectors tend to receive their minimal aspiration levels plus a share of whatever fiscal surplus exists the analysis also indicates that the executive branch has not been as strong a direct force for budgetary growth as congress

deforestation and the rule of law in a cross section of countries relationships between deforestation and population pressure income growth and insecure property rights are examined with data from 120 countries insecure property rights are hypothesized to arise from two sources government instability or inability to enforce ownership and an absence of government accountability the former source is captured by measures of general lawlessness such as guerrilla warfare revolution and frequent constitutional change the latter is proxied by variables indicating the type of government executive frequency of political purges and the existence of an elected legislature general support is indicated for the property rights hypothesis and for the effects of population growth

mergers acquisitions and innovation performance in the telecommunications equipment industry the worldwide telecommunications equipment industry has experienced an enormous number of mergers and acquisitions m a this article examines the innovation determinants of m a activity a

business group affiliation and firm search behavior in india responsiveness and focus of attention this paper investigates the effects of organizational form on problemistic search we contrast how indian firms affiliated with business groups and unaffiliated firms evaluate performance and react by adjusting their internal technology search and external market search we propose that compared with unaffiliated firms business group affiliated bg affiliated firms are more externally oriented in setting aspiration levels and more likely to respond to low performance in the market domain we find support for an external orientation of bg affiliated firms and find that group affiliation determines the responsiveness to performance feedback in different search domains the findings suggest a need to add considerations of organizational form and governance to the theory of organizational search

taxation and political business cycles in eu economies this paper examines whether incumbent national governments of 11 member states of the european union manipulated the tax policy instruments at their disposal in order to create national political business cycles opportunistic or partisan the empirical evidence based on data concerning the 1965 to 1997 period does not support this hypothesis rather it appears that governments have pursued stabilization policies

a behavioral theory of r d expenditures and innovations evidence from shipbuilding i base an integrated model of innovation development and launch on the behavioral theory of the firm this model specifies that research and development expenses are increased when low performance causes problemistic search and when excess resources cause slack search innovations generated by search are launched if low performance gives managers high risk tolerance using data from shipbuilding firms i show that high performance reduces r d intensity and innovation launches and high slack increases r d intensity as predicted

disentangling the theories of firm boundaries a path model and empirical test theories on the motivation underlying firm boundaries have recently sparked renewed debate what best explains whether a firm relies on market control or hierarchical control to secure required resources how do the characteristics of the resources come into play in this study we consider a comprehensive path model of the governance mode decision for sourcing technological know how by integrating different perspectives on firm boundaries including transaction cost economics a resource based view and an options perspective we link characteristics of the technology i e uniqueness barriers to imitation commercial uncertainty technological dynamism to the perceived threat of opportunism the potential for sustainable advantage and the pursuit of a licensing agreement vis a vis the outright acquisition of the firm that possesses the desired know how we use structural equation modeling to analyze 127 sourcing arrangements our results show that technological dynamism and barriers to imitation indirectly influence the governance mode decision by increasing the perceived threat of opportunism commercial uncertainty directly influences the governance mode and decreases the likelihood of an acquisition vis a vis a licensing agreement although uniqueness and barriers to imitation are also positively associated with the perceived potential for sustainable advantage the potential for sustainable advantage had no direct effect on governance mode implications and suggestions for further research are offered

an information interpretation of financial analyst superiority in forecasting earnings the results of recent empirical tests comparing the accuracy of financial analysts forecasts faf of firm earnings to the accuracy of predictions from univariate time series ts forecasting models are consistent with faf forecast superiority see brown et al 1987a and their references the source of this apparent superiority however is not well understood an issue related to earnings forecast superiority is that of determining the most accurate surrogate for the earnings expectations of capital market participants researchers have compared the association between earnings surprise and stock returns across alternative surrogates for earnings expectations and have argued that the best surrogate is generated from the earnings forecast model whose errors exhibit the highest

institutional sources of boundary spanning structures the establishment of investor relations departments in the fortune 500 industrials the authors analyze the coercive and mimetic conditions leading to the establishment of investor relations departments among fortune 500 industrial firms during the 1984 1994 period the results show that antimanagement resolutions brought to a vote by social movement activists significantly contributed to the establishment of investor relations departments intense scrutiny by financial analysts also impelled firms to create such departments whereas social movement activists framed shareholder rights as a problem and compelled organizations to uphold them professional analysts subtly coerced organizations to signal their commitment to investor rights by creating boundary spanning structures that solution was transmitted through board interlocks to other organizations

too risky to hold the effect of downside risk accumulated equity wealth and firm performance on ceo equity reduction although the alignment effect of equity ownership is often studied with emphasis on changes in firm strategy the exposure of ceos firm specific wealth to firm risk is more easily controlled by changing their level of equity holdings than by changing firm strategic risk we rely on prospect theory and the behavioral theory of the firm to examine the antecedents of ceo equity reduction and investigate whether it serves to decouple ceo wealth from firm risk given its central role in loss avoidance we underline the effect of the firm s downside risk and distinguish the total loss potential on equity holdings from the loss potential due to firm specific factors allowing for own performance referents we also consider firm performance and the value of a ceo s equity holdings in the analysis based on a sample of 208 u s ceos for the years 1997 1999 we find empirical support for the role of downside risk and firm performance in ceo equity reductions implications on incentive alignment through equity ownership are presented

elections keynes bureaucracy and class explaining u s budget deficits 1961 1978 the determination of u s federal budget deficits and surpluses during a period of keynesian fiscal activism is modeled in light of relevant social science literatures rational choice emphases upon electoral manipulation of the economy and keynesian stabilization marxian emphases upon monopolization andfiscal control of labor militancy organizational decision theory emphases upon budgeting inertia and a number of additional thrusts from other literatures are supported by time series regression analyses of 1961 1978 surpluses deficits the final model is statistically well behaved analysis of so called high employment measures of discretionary surpluses deficits supports all interpretations requiring discretionary policy making but an indication of automatic stabilization emerges as well a focus upon executive policy making roles is suggested as one means to further theoretical integration of explanations of state macroeconomic policy

financial slack strategy and competition in movie distribution organizations that enjoy some slack are believed to make good use of it in their strategic decisions using panel data on firms in the u s film distribution industry between 1985 and 2007 this article examines how financial slack affects the volume of new product introductions the competitive strategies for those releases and their economic performance unexpectedly successful sleeper films are exploited as a source of exogenous financial slack in the econometric analysis the results suggest that unexpected financial slack leads to more product introductions less marketing support for the new products and no improvement in performance these findings are consistent with an attribution process in which managers attempt to replicate extraordinary success even if it is largely random providing real world evidence of a mechanism recently developed in theory and laboratory research

the political policy cycle presidential effort vs presidential control after disentangling presidential budget proposals from budgetary changes attributable to fluctuations in the economy and to congressional action we find consistent evidence for a presidential macroeconomic policy cycle attuned to the elctoral cycle proposed budgets are more expansionary in election years than at other times the congress however also plays a significant role in determining fiscal outcomes its budgets are systematically related to those of the president and in general reinforce presidential efforts to respond to the electoral cycle

involuntary corporate finance the dominance of history in decisions lagged values of corporate finance decisions are known to be economically important but most analyses ignore them this article examines the influence on five key financial decisions of previous decisions using a data set that includes industry census data it finds that lagged values explain between 25 and 36 of decisions on leverage payout and investment which gives them strong predictive ability in regression of these decisions on firm and industry traits omission of lagged values leads to a change of around one third in parameter estimates and so significantly overstates their impact the influence of lagged values persists and for most decisions is significant for several years given the stickiness in financial decisions there are potentially significant analytical problems from ignoring their lagged values

prospect theory and the risk return association an empirical examination in 85 industries a new sample of 85 industries about 3 300 firms defined in terms of homogenous products provides strong evidence that prospect theory can explain the tradeoff between two of the most researched parameters in evaluating organizations namely risk and return in particular organizations below their target level are found to be risk takers hl while organizations above their target level are risk averters h2 moreover the below target tradeofl was generally steeper than the above target with a median below to above slope ratio of about 3 l h3 risk and return are probably the two single parameters most researched by the various and related disciplines of economics finance and management although each one of them has looked at these two parameters from different aspects and for different purposes they have provided a wide understanding of these two factors in the contest of the theory of the firm the purpose of this study is to look closely at the relationship between these two important parameters in order to understand firm s competitive behavior using the recent development in behavioral decision theory namely prospect theory kahneman and tversky 1979 although march 1988 has criticized the discipline of management for its later adaptation in considering risk elements for evaluating organization performance and decision making processes recent studies e g bettis 1981 rumelt 1974 singh 1986 jemison 1987 and baird and thomas 1986 have paid considerable attention to risk aspects in evaluating the performance of firms in general these studies have concluded that the characteristics of the firms environment strategy and implementation processes have significant and important influence on the firm s risk level and its associated rate of return bowman 1980 has looked closely at 85 u s industries and explored the

losses from failure of stakeholder sensitive processes financial consequences for large us companies from breakdowns in product environmental and accounting standards this article makes first use of a set of databases that are authoritative independent and consistent to examine an old research question do firms hurt their financial performance by damaging stakeholder interests the databases are us government on line listings of fines for environmental breaches unsafe workplaces fraudulent accounting standards and product recalls these measures are assumed to proxy for signals to stakeholders of the environmental social and governance esg risks in transacting with the firm and appear to have fewer biases than conventional measures of stakeholder standards using a sample of all non financial sp and shareholder return was significantly reduced by an epa or sec prosecution this study links the risk of transaction uncertainty information signaling theory and the resource based view of the firm to company financial performance results support the normative assumption that a firm s sales margin will be damaged by unethical treatment of stakeholders as evidenced by esg breaches presumably because risk averse customers and suppliers are alert to signals of counterparty risk

investment and the behavioral theory of the firm evidence from shipbuilding investment in production assets is a strategic decision that results from organizational search and risk taking the behavioral theory of the firm predicts that performance below the aspiration level and slack resources initiate organizational search risk theory predicts that performance below the aspiration level increases risk tolerance this paper integrates these theories to form a theory of problem and slack driven strategic change and applies it to the growth of production assets the predictions are tested by analyzing the growth of production assets in the japanese shipbuilding industry yielding clear evidence that high performance causes low asset growth but no effect of slack copyright 2003 oxford university press

the harm of symbolic actions and green washing corporate actions and communications on environmental performance and their financial implications we examine over 100 top performing canadian firms in visibly polluting industries as we seek to answer four research questions what specific environmental issues are firms addressing how do these issues differ between industries are both symbolic and substantive actions financially beneficial does green washing measured as the difference between symbolic and substantive action and or green highlighting measured as the combined effect of symbolic and substantive actions pay we find that substantive actions of environmental issues green walk neither harm nor benefit firms financially but symbolic actions green talk are negatively related to financial performance we also find that green washing discrepancy between green talk and green walk has a negative effect on financial performance and green highlighting concentrated efforts of the talk and walk has no effect on financial performance in this article we provide explanations of our findings and put forth future research directions

rapid fdi expansion and firm performance today more firms are expanding rapidly into foreign markets to reach global scale quickly and to capture or nullify first mover advantages these trends run counter to the conventional theory of gradual internationalization which suggests that firms maximize the benefits of learning from prior experience thereby minimizing the hazard of failure we argue that this conventional wisdom does not consider the risk of being a perennial late mover in the face of increased global competition this study explores the circumstances under which rapid fdi expansion a strategy of undertaking fdi expansion at an accelerated speed can be a viable strategy using data on korean firm expansion we find that rapid fdi expansion enhances firm performance in industries where globalization pressures are high and when it is done by firms with superior internal resources and capabilities

the effect of agricultural policies on land use and environmental quality in this paper i consider the environmental quality gains that may be achieved by reducing agricultural income supports a new methodology is developed to estimate land use shares in an application to wisconsin milk price support reductions result in shifts of marginal agricultural land to forest reducing soil erosion and providing off site water quality improvements the environmental benefits are estimated to be at least as large as the decreased welfare burden on consumers and taxpayers indicating a central role for environmental quality considerations in motivating policy reforms and a more efficient means of achieving the environmental quality goals of land retirement programs

network centrality and organizational aspirations a behavioral interaction in the context of international strategic alliances the authors wish to acknowledge the financial support provided by the spanish ministry of science and education under projects eco2013 48496 c4 2 r eco2013 48496 c4 4 r and eco2017 48496 c4 4 r

influences on executive and congressional budgetary priorities 1955 1981 a reduced form equation system is used to analyze the influence of economic political and institutional influences on the budgetary priorities of the executive branch and congress during fiscal 1955 81 three related issues are considered the extent to which political and macroeconomic factors affect priorities the degree of interdependence among the components of the federal budget and between spending and revenues and differences between the executive branch and congress with respect to these issues both types of interdependence are present within both executive branch and congressional budgeting although this interdependence is stronger within the executive branch the influence of economic conditions on budgetary outcomes is strong but varies considerably across spending categories there is no evidence of apolitical business cycle political variables exert a modest influence on the budgetary outcomes examined differences between democratic and republican budgetary policies as well as differences in the budgetary priorities of different presidential administrations are small by comparison with the differences between executive and congressional policies

are family firms good employers family firms employ about 60 percent of the global workforce while it is widely assumed that they are good employers data about their conduct is mixed in this study we extend stewardship and agency theories to test competing propositions about the impact of family on employment practices using data from 14 961 private belgian firms over a 19 year period higher investments lower dividend payout and higher risk tolerance indicate that family firms are better financial stewards of their companies than nonfamily firms however family firms are worse organizational stewards than nonfamily firms they offer lower compensation invest less in employee training and exhibit higher voluntary turnover and lower labor productivity further and contrary to earlier research we find that financial practices in private family firms do not change over time and that the deleterious influence of family on employment practices rises with both firm age and with heightened family involvement together our findings suggest that a more nuanced understanding of stewardship and agency theory is needed to understand the impact of family on the governance of private firms

the economics of tropical forest land use options tropical deforestation is generally characterized as conversion of forest land to alternative uses notably agriculture this would suggest the need for rational decision making concerning the optimal allocation of tropical forest land between competing uses the following paper explores this problem by devising rules for determining optimal land use allocation between timber and agriculture at the stand and forest levels a complementary intertemporal model for optimal allocation of forest land to agricultural conversion at the forest level is also developed and used to derive a demand relationship for agricultural conversion which is then approximated through empirical estimation

public open access and private timber harvests theory and application to the effects of trade liberalization in mexico a common popular assertion is that trade liberalization encourages deforestation but whether this is true depends on how trade policies affect the allocation of land among competing uses and how they influence illegal cutting of public forests a model is presented that allows for forests to be either public or private and public forests are divided into protected or managed and threatened categories effects of price changes are shown on each part of the forest an empirical version of the model is applied to the case of mexico with nafta most scenarios considered show that nafta will have positive long run effects on forest cover in mexico but that this is net of losses on private lands

consensus forests of corporate earnings analysts forecasts and time series methods an alternative to using a single forecasting method is to average the forecasts made by various methods in this paper we examine empirically combinations of financial analysts forecasts and forecasts from time series methods in order to predict corporate earnings per share we conclude that on average the primary forecasting advantages of analysts over time series methods based on annual data appear to occur over short forecast horizons less than a year neither analysts nor other time series methods substantially outperform a random walk prediction of no change when forecasts are made near the beginning of the fiscal year for predictions in the first half of the fiscal year there is evidence of forecasting benefits from combining time series and analysts forecasts especially if there are few analysts forecasts

to be different or to be the same it s a question and theory of strategic balance this paper addresses the performance consequences of firm level strategic similarity past research observed that firms face pressures to be different and to be the same by differentiating firms reduce competition by conforming firms demonstrate their legitimacy both reduced competition and legitimacy improve performance this paper begins building a theory of strategic balance by synthesizing the differentiation and conformity perspectives the theory directs attention to intermediate levels of strategic similarity where firms balance the pressures of competition and legitimation empirical support for the theory is found in a longitudinal study of commercial banks several suggestions for developing a theory of strategic balance conclude the paper the theory s major implication is that firms should be as different as legitimately possible copyright 1999 john wiley sons ltd

the persistence and dynamics of new venture growth extensive research has suggested that new ventures growth rates lack persistence however existing studies tend not to differentiate between positive and negative growth rates or examine their respective persistence and dynamics building on performance feedback theory we show that positive and negative growth rates exhibit different dynamics over time especially negative growth rates are less likely to persist and more likely to reverse than positive ones furthermore firm size and team size influence the persistence or the lack of thereof of both positive and negative growth rates specifically new ventures that are smaller as well as those managed by larger teams are more likely to maintain positive growth and reverse negative growth relative to their respective counterparts overall this study suggests that positive and negative growth rates differ in their persistence and that new ventures can shape the dynamics of both positive and negative growth

assessing the relationship between government policy and deforestation abstract the effects of public policies on deforestation are assessed in a general equilibrium framework a forest can be left in its natural state to provide a consumption benefit such as biodiversity or carbon absorption in its natural state it is subject to free access however alternatively it can be converted to a market input needed to produce a valuable final product the utility of consumers depends on the amount of the forest left standing on consumption of the forest using commodity and on consumption of a numeraire that is produced from non forest inputs only final commodities are traded with the outside world at constant prices the model is used to evaluate claims in the literature regarding the effects of government policies on deforestation in developing countries the polices examined include transportation improvements taxes and royalties on timber harvests controls on log exports a variety of agricultural policies tax incentives to promote domestic processing industries and employment opportunity enhancement

diversification and the risk return trade off the article presents information on a study which investigated the risk return trade off at the level of individual firms with both accounting and market based measures of risk the author describe

fixed versus variable reference points in the risk return relationship abstract researchers using prospect theory in explaining bowman s risk return paradox have typically assumed a single fixed reference point normally the industry median in defining two decision contexts gain and loss our findings suggest this reference point is elevated above industry median performance and varies over time and across industries independent of industry performance consistent with the prospect theory firms above this reference point were risk averse and those below it were risk seeking we found no evidence of a second survival reference point for firms in trouble

performance feedback and firm risk taking the moderating effects of ceo and outside director stock options we contribute to the behavioral theory of the firm and the behavioral agency model by developing a theoretical framework that predicts the differential interaction effects of performance feedback and values of stock option grants of multiple agents on firm risk taking we explain how chief executive officers ceos versus outside directors awarded with stock option grants perceive negative or positive deviations from prior performance we argue that in a negative attainment discrepancy context high values of option grants will increase the risk aversion of ceos who already bear excessive employment and compensation risks resulting in less risk taking however it will enhance the risk taking propensity of influential outside directors who increase monitoring and support for risky projects because their risk preferences are better aligned with those of shareholders in a positive attainment discrepancy context high values of option grants will amplify risk aversion in both ceos and outside directors who

strategic orientations incentive plan adoptions and firm performance evidence from electric utility firms this study examines the performance implications of the fit between strategic orientations and incentive plan characteristics research hypotheses are based on a framework that draws upon managerial discretion and agency theories to identify the links between firm strategy managerial motivation and control managerial risk bearing and incentive plan characteristics a pooled cross sectional time series research design is used to test hypotheses in a sample of 50 electric utility firms consistent with theory results indicate that annual bonus plans that use cash incentives and accounting measures of performance lead to better performance among firms with defender strategic orientations in contrast firms with prospector strategic orientations realize performance benefits when they adopt stock based incentive plans and use market measures to evaluate managerial performance 1997 john wiley sons ltd

organizational structure and performance feedback centralization aspirations and termination decisions this study examines the effects of organizational structure and performance feedback on termination decisions in particular product phaseout using quarterly product level data on the major mobile handset manufacturers for the period 2004 2009 we analyze how product level feedback affects product phaseout and how these decisions are conditioned by organizational structure the extent to which decision making is centralized we argue that such structure affects termination in two ways directly through coordination and indirectly by shaping the interpretation of performance feedback our baseline models indicate that as performance increases above aspirations the rate of phaseout decreases we find that as performance declines below aspirations the rate of phaseout decreases but then increases when the product falls below a certain sales threshold we also find evidence that centralization amplifies the feedback effect above aspirations but attenuates it below aspirations this study links two pillars of the carnegie school aspiration levels and hierarchy to explain the complexity of phaseout following perceived success or failure we thereby augment the growing scholarship on performance feedback by considering some important conditional effects imposed by a centralized structure our focus on centralization expands the scope of theory concerning organization design by linking structure and cognition to explain firm behavior especially termination decisions

optimal regime switching under risk aversion and uncertainty abstract technology adoption is key for corporate strategy often determining the success or failure of a company as a whole however risk aversion often raises the reluctance to make a timely technology switch particularly when this entails the abandonment of an existing market regime and entry in a new one consequently which strategy is most suitable and the optimal timing of regime switch depends not only on market factors such as the definition of the market regimes as well as economic and technological uncertainty but also on attitudes towards risk therefore we develop a utility based regime switching framework for evaluating different technology adoption strategies under price and technological uncertainty we assume that a decisionmaker may invest in each technology that becomes available compulsive or delay investment until a new technology arrives and then invest in either the older laggard or the newer technology leapfrog our results indicate that if market regimes are asymmetric then greater risk aversion and price uncertainty in a new regime may accelerate regime switching in addition the feasibility of a laggard strategy decreases increases as price uncertainty in an existing new regime increases finally although risk aversion typically favours a compulsive and a laggard strategy a leapfrog strategy may be feasible under risk aversion provided that the output price and the rate of innovation are sufficiently high

reputation and decision making under ambiguity a study of u s venture capital firms investments in the emerging clean energy sector this study examines the role of reputation on decision making under ambiguity drawing on social cognition and behavioral theories we propose that a firm s reputation exerts dual pressures on its decision making under ambiguity on the one hand a firm s reputation increases its aspirations for future performance and promotes its engagement in risky strategies to achieve them on the other hand preserving the already established reputation requires a firm to deliver consistent performance over time which promotes greater use of risk reduction strategies our analyses of the u s venture capital firms investments in the clean energy sector from 1990 to 2008 demonstrate that while reputable firms are more likely to invest in the emerging sector they also employ risk reduction strategies more extensively the sector s legitimation further influences these firms investment decisions both directly and through its interaction with firm reputation

risk propensity in the foreign direct investment location decision of emerging multinationals a distinguishing feature of emerging economy multinationals is their apparent tolerance for host country institutional risk employing behavioral decision theory and quasi experimental data we find that managers domestic experience satisfaction increases their relative risk propensity regarding controllable risk legally protectable loss but decreases their tendency to accept noncontrollable risk e g political instability in contrast firms potential slack reduces relative risk propensity regarding controllable risk yet amplifies the tendency to take noncontrollable risk we suggest that these counterbalancing effects might help explain prior ambiguous findings on the relationship between experience slack and fdi decisions the study provides a new understanding of why firms exhibit heterogeneous responses to host country risks and the varying effects of institutions

variable risk preferences and adaptive aspirations abstract observations of human decision making indicate that risk preferences depend on the values of possible outcomes relative to levels of aspiration a model of such variable risk preference is specified it suggests that some risk averse behavior may result from a human tendency to focus on targets and from the adaptation of those targets to experience rather than from a fixed trait of risk aversion in addition the model shows how risk preferences varying around adaptive aspirations produce both a greater long run likelihood of survival and a higher average return for survivors than do fixed risk preferences

antecedents of convergence and divergence in strategic positioning the effects of performance and aspiration on the direction of strategic change this paper investigates drivers of convergence and divergence in strategic positioning in terms of resource allocation decisions the study based on the behavioral theory of the firm suggests two unexplored kinked curve relationships between performance gaps and strategic convergence divergence first the study suggests a negative relationship between a focal firm s performance relative to aspiration levels and strategic convergence divergence where the slope is steeper when performance is above the aspiration level second it suggests a positive relationship between a target firm s performance relative to a focal firm s performance and strategic convergence divergence where the slope is steeper when a target firm s performance is below a focal firm s performance empirical analysis of dyad level data in the u s food processing industry reveals that the direction of a firm s strategic change is shaped by its aspiration level its performance level and the performance gap between it and the firm it selects as a model this study contributes to the current literature by offering preliminary indications of when and how a firm moves closer to or further away from other competing firms in its strategic position

sticky aspirations organizational time perspective and competitiveness managers evaluate the organizational performance by comparing it with historical aspiration levels and are more likely to make strategic changes when the performance falls below the aspiration level historical aspiration levels can be updated with different speed because a focus on current performance will lead to quickly adjusting aspiration levels where historical performance has low weight while a focus on past performance will lead to slowly adjusting performance levels where the current performance has low weight a simulation model of aspiration level learning and strategic change under uncertainty yields the following findings 1 slow adjustments of an aspiration level gives higher performance across different levels of environmental uncertainty 2 slow adjustments of aspirations will dominate in populations with different adjustment levels if low performing organizations are removed and replaced by organizations of the form currently performing best and 3 stronger selection leads to faster domination by slow adjusters empirical analysis of format changes in radio stations finds slow adjustment of aspiration levels to be prevalent and finds slower adjustment in competitive markets as predicted

determinants of firms backward and forward looking r d search behavior this study develops and operationalizes a behavioral forward looking search model by incorporating prospect theory organizational risk literature and the logic of the behavioral theory of the firm with recognition of the bounded rationality of decision makers and the goal directed rule based nature of organizations this model suggests that a comparison between firms performance expectation and performance target translates the cognitive representation of the firms future into their subsequent actions by examining the research and development r d expenditures of u s manufacturing firms from 1980 to 2001 this study explores how performance aspirations expectations and slack affect decision making about firms r d search investments the findings show that both performance feedback and performance prospect are important determinants of firms search behavior after controlling for firm industry and time effects in addition backward and forward looking determinants have interactive effects on search behavior firms problem driven search activity further increases when firms feel unlikely to achieve the performance target for another year in contrast search intensity is reduced when firms expect to improve their performance from an underperforming situation to an outperforming situation the findings suggest that future research on performance feedback and experiential learning should also consider the effect of forward looking prospects on firm behavior

managerial risk taking behavior a too big to fail story we examine the implications of the us government s too big to fail tbtf policy as it has been applied to banks using alternative measures of risk we compare the risk taking behavior of 11 tbtf banks identified by the comptroller of the currency in 1984 to a number of non tbtf banks we provide both theory and new empirical evidence to support our argument that the tbtf policy leads management to significantly increase risk taking with no corresponding increase in performance while prior studies have considered the effects of the tbtf policy on limited but risk related aspects of bank behavior such as the cost of funds our study provides direct evidence about the risk taking behavior associated with the tbtf policy our study has important implications for the current political debate regarding the too big to fail policy

variable organizational risk preferences tests of the march shapira model march and shapira s 1987 1992 model of managers risk preferences allows for shifts in attention between survival and aspiration levels our study provides initial empirical tests of their model

international venturing by emerging economy firms the effects of firm capabilities home country networks and corporate entrepreneurship past literature on foreign direct investment generally supports an economics perspective that there is a direct relationship between firm specific ownership advantages and international expansion however in emerging economies with their institutional environment context characterized by low resource munificence and continuous economic liberalization a theoretical extension of the current perspective is needed this paper introduces new parameters by focusing on specific ownership advantages and strategic actions that firms have to develop in response to the institutional characteristics of the emerging economies when they decide to pursue outward fdi the focus here is on international venturing that requires a firm to engage in activities for new business creation in a foreign country rather than simply seek to distribute a product in another nation it is shown empirically that the relationship between firm specific ownership advantages and international venturing is moderated by the degree of home industry competition and export intensity in addition such a relationship is mediated by the intensity of corporate entrepreneurial transformation in the form of innovation new business creation and strategic renewal

do organizations have to change to learn examining the effects of technological change and learning from failures in the natural gas distribution industry failures contain valuable information however organizations vary at learning from them i ask whether failures prompt organizations to make technological investments and whether these investments help boost performance beyond improvements gained through direct organizational learning i test hypotheses on natural gas distributors to determine whether they enhance their performance by learning directly by recognizing failures as prompts to invest in safer technologies or through a combination results suggest that distributors learn directly though firms which also invest in related technologies are able to gain some additional benefits copyright 2010 the author 2010 published by oxford university press on behalf of associazione icc all rights reserved oxford university press

the congress and fiscal policy although the common belief is that the congress has paid little attention to fiscal policy the same kinds of political economic models which have been used to explain presidential budgetary policy may be used equally well to explain congressional budgetary behavior the congress fiscal policy appears to be systematically sensitive to both economic and political factors changes in the unemployment rate have a major impact on congressional budgetary policy as for political factors the president s lead is followed most closely on revenue proposals and not at all on the expenditure side the electoral cycle in particular the off year congressional election year is also important inducing larger deficits and smaller increases in revenues

strategic risk taking propensity the role of ethical climate and marketing output control in the wake of the current financial crises triggered by risky mortgage backed securities the question of ethics and risk taking is once again at the front and center for both practitioners and academics although risk taking is considered an integral part of strategic decision making sometimes firms could be propelled to take risks driven by reasons other than calculated strategic choices the authors argue that a firm s risk taking propensity is impacted by its ethical climate egoistic or benevolent and its emphasis on output control to manage its marketing function the firm s long term orientation is argued to moderate the control risk propensity relationship the authors also extend research on risk and performance and argue that the association of risk taking propensity and firm performance is contingent on the ownership publicly traded versus privately held structure of the firm based on survey data from a sample of manufacturing industries in the united states the results show significant impact of ethical climate and marketing output control on a firm s risk taking propensity also risk taking propensity shows a stronger association with firm performance in privately held firms than in publicly traded firms

financial analysts forecasts of earnings a better surrogate for market expectations abstract the specification of the market expectation of accounting numbers is a common feature of many empirical studies in accounting and finance givoly and lakonishok 1979 found that financial analysts forecasts have information content this study evaluates the quality of analysts forecasts as surrogates for the market expectation of earnings and compares it with that of prediction models commonly used in research results indicate that prediction errors of analysts are more closely associated with security price movements suggesting that analysts forecasts provide a better surrogate for market expectations than forecasts generated by time series models the study also identifies factors that might contribute to the performance of the financial analysts forecasts the broadness of the information set employed by analysts and to a lesser extent their reliance on information released after the end of the fiscal year appear to be important contributors to their performance

incidence and consequences of risk taking behavior in tournaments evidence from the nba we empirically explore the relevance and efficiency of risk taking behavior in tournaments we use data from the national basketball association nba and measure risk taking by the fraction of three point shots in basketball games we examine how point differences between teams during games affect their subsequent risk taking behavior it is found that teams that are trailing are more likely to increase their use of three point shots we additionally analyze the consequences of this change in behavior enhanced risk taking is inefficient in the vast majority of cases and is only beneficial if a team is trailing by a rather large margin we discuss possible explanations for these decision errors jel m5 d81 j30

ceo hubris and firm risk taking in china the moderating role of managerial discretion this study linked ceo hubris to firm risk taking and examined the moderating role of managerial discretion in this relationship drawing on upper echelons theory and behavioral decision theory we

forest sustainability and the free trade of forest products cases from southeast asia abstract this paper introduces the theoretical arguments for and against trade liberalization of forest products considering forest sustainability and reports on the recent circumstances of three countries in southeast asia the philippines thailand and indonesia trade liberalization raises concerns about the negative effects on forest sustainability both in log importing countries that have already cut a large portion of their natural forests by commercial logging and now face a pressing need for reforestation and in forest product exporting countries that still have large areas of natural forest and enjoy export competitiveness in forest products

risk propensity and firm performance a study of the petroleum exploration industry this paper explores the differences in observed risk propensity among petroleum firms and their impact on firm performance in this work we 1 develop a decision theoretic model which measures a firm s risk propensity in the form of an implied utility function 2 investigate changes in corporate risk propensity with respect to changes in firm size and 3 examine the relationships between firms risk propensities and alternative dimensions of economic performance including ex post risk and return measures we also develop a new risk propensity measure the risk tolerance ratio rtr which controls for firm size and allows firms to be differentiated in terms of relative risk propensity the motivation for this work is managerial concerns regarding appropriate risk taking behavior and the effect of risky choice on firm performance this methodology has importance business strategy implications in that we are able to make strong inferences about causal relationships between ex ante risk taking and performance our findings are compelling in that corporate risk propensity seems to matter and that decisions about corporate risk policy have a significant impact on the petroleum firm s economic performance

a north american free trade agreement analytical issues and a computational assessment abstractthe following sections are included introductionissues in analyzing the economic impact of the naftathe computational modelcomputational resultsconclusionsstudy questionsreferencessuggested further reading this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

the economics of tropical deforestation this paper provides a survey of first wave economic studies of tropical deforestation and land use these studies of tropical forest land conversion are generally at the cross country level we also conduct a synthesis cross country analysis of tropical agricultural land expansion the results show that agricultural development is the main factor determining land expansion but institutional factors have an important influence income effects tend to vary from region to region and do not always display an environmental kuznets curve relationship copyright 2001 by blackwell publishers ltd

a behavioral theory of market expansion based on the opportunity prospects rule what explains organizational search and choice when multiple opportunities are available to the decision makers drawing on the behavioral view of the firm and on the attention based view this study proposes a theoretical model centered on the opportunity prospects rule to explain market expansion defined as the extent how many and the selection which of multiple available opportunities that are actually pursued by competing firms we test our model using longitudinal fine grained data on commercial banks undertaking more than 1 300 opportunity choices the findings show that firms do use the opportunity prospects rule when exercising market expansion choices and that slack and performance feedback moderate the effects of opportunity prospects this paper contributes to organizational decision making research and to the behavioral view of the firm by showing the importance of considering an opportunity driven approach by demonstrating the relevance of simplifying rules to explain the search for the consequences of alternatives by extending recent efforts to provide a more forward looking perspective to model organization behavior and by showing when slack and performance feedback moderate the effects on market expansion of the opportunity prospects rule

testing a causal model of corporate risk taking and performance the determinants of organizational risk taking and its impact on economic performance are critical issues in strategic management using a model that included risk performance performance expecta

world product and income international comparisons of real gross product the volume reports on the third phase of the united nations international comparison project icp the main results provide comparisons of real gross domestic product gdp per capita for thirty four countries in 1975 quantity and price comparisons are given also for personal consumption capital formation and public consumption and further subdivisions of final expenditures on gdp are estimated

the relative influence of industry and corporation on business segment performance an alternative estimate rumelt s 1991 widely cited paper presents estimates of the relative influence of industry corporate business unit and other influences on business unit profitability he finds corporations explain almost none of the variability in business unit profitability using a simultaneous equation model we provide alternative estimates of the influence of industry and corporation on business unit performance we find that both corporations and industries influence business unit profitability but corporations have the larger influence copyright 1999 john wiley sons ltd