international direct real estate investment a review of the literature this paper provides a critical review of research on international direct real estate investment issues to date no review article has explored the various findings of studies completed on the benefits of international real estate diversification in the past 10 years the quantity and variety of work have increased dramatically the paper is organised by how investing in a real estate asset is analysed in a mixed asset portfolio context or a real estate only portfolio context a fourth section focuses on research that has explored currency risk one of the prevailing risks associated with international investing the last section provides conclusions about the research and offers ideas for future research in this growing area of real estate investment

the open economy consequences of u s monetary policy a failure to identify movements in the federal funds rate that are both unpredictable and independent of other determinants of open economy variables may lead to attenuation bias in the estimated effects of u s monetary policy on the exchange rate and foreign variables using a u s monetary policy measure which isolates unpredictable and independent federal funds rate changes we quantify the magnitude of the attenuation bias for the exchange rate and foreign variables the exchange rate appreciation following a monetary contraction is up to 4 times larger than a recursively identified var estimate there is stronger evidence of foreign interest rate pass through the expenditure reducing effects of a u s monetary policy contraction dominate any expenditure switching effects leading to a positive conditional correlation of international outputs and prices we compare our results with those obtained using identification based upon 1 non recursive var restrictions and 2 restrictions derived from high frequency asset price behavior

the effect of contemporaneous reserve accounting on the market for federal funds abstract this paper evaluates the effect of the transition from lagged to contemporaneous reserve accounting for the determination of bank reserve requirements through its impact on the market for federal funds the results indicate that increased target reserve uncertainty resulting from the implementation of the contemporaneous reserve accounting system cra caused an initial increase in intraday federal funds rate variance and daily interest rate differences however subsequent to a learning period intraday variance appears to be less pronounced and daily differentials appear to be narrower than under the previously used lagged reserve accounting system lra these results are attributed to the lengthening of the accounting period from one to two weeks therefore while not costless the new system does not appear to have seriously disrupted the federal funds market

multiple equilibrium overnight rates in a dynamic interbank market game abstract we analyse a two period model of the interbank market i e the market where banks trade liquidity we assume that banks do not take the interbank interest rate as given but instead negotiate on interest rates and transaction volumes with each other the solution concept applied is the shapley value we show that there are a multiplicity of average equilibrium interest rates of the first period so that the average interest rate in this period does not convey any information on the expected liquidity situation on the interbank market as the banks control not only the transaction volumes but also the interest rates they can leave the interest rates constant and adjust the transaction volumes when for example a liquidity deficit becomes more likely

the microstructure of the euro money market abstract this paper provides an empirical examination of the microstructure of the euro money market especially the overnight market the interbank market for short term funds in the transnational currency created in january 1999 the institutional framework shaping the microstructure of the money market can be delimited as the union of 1 central banks interest setting bodies and their long term policy strategy 2 instruments for monetary policy operations and liquidity management 3 the private market financial instruments and trading mechanisms for funds and 4 the payment and settlement infrastructure for the transfer of those funds all four elements can significantly influence the intraday behaviour of money market rates to study their effects on the euro money market 5 months of intraday data for overnight deposits have been recorded from brokers in four euro area countries and the uk posting their quotes on reuters and from the italian electronic market mid the results show two hump shaped or u shaped intraday patterns of quoting frequency and volatility but flatter intraday patterns sometimes weakly single hump shaped for bid ask spreads even intraday overnight rate levels hardly differ across brokers located in different euro area countries reflecting the high integration of this market already shortly after the introduction of the euro despite some remaining heterogeneities in market structures and trading channels quoting activity rate volatility and spreads increase on ecb governing council days particularly after the 1 45 pm release time of interest rate decisions however since the amplitude of this volatility is economically small and since turnovers are not indicative of adverse selection the average degree of policy uncertainty seems to have been rather limited during our sample period ecb announcements of new m3 data related to the first pillar of its monetary policy strategy around 10am seem to be associated with very moderate increases in short term volatility tuesdays eurosystem main refinancing auctions with the open market exhibit active pre and post auction liquidity re allocation but only a very short and moderate increase in volatility after the announcement of the allotments and no signs of market power or adverse selection open market operation settlement days exhibit the highest turnovers during the business week at least for the mid without however being affected by any special risks finally it is shown that spreads and volatility tend to be very high at the end of the minimum reserve maintenance period and that the same happened during the year 2000 changeover days reflecting the high risks involved in both

the federal reserve s new operating procedures a post mortem abstract although money stock targeting has been the strategic focus of federal reserve policy since the mid 1970 s operating policy the tactics whereby the longer run strategy is implemented over short term intervals has been changed by the federal reserve at least twice over this period a particularly dramatic change in operating policy was announced by the federal reserve in october 1979 this paper provides empirical evidence that settles questions about the nature of this change and suggests that the new operating procedures may have contributed to the heightened interest rate volatility experienced over the 1979 to 1982 period

does international diversification work better for real estate than for stocks and bonds international diversification is now an established fact for stock and bond portfolios for real estate shares however this acceptance has so far not been the case this study is an investigation of the effectiveness of international real estate diversification relative to international diversification of stock and bond portfolios tests of international correlation matrixes of real estate returns common stock returns and bond returns indicate significantly lower correlations between national real estate returns than between common stock or bond returns the implication is that international diversification reduces the risk of a real estate portfolio more than that of common stock and bond portfolios

concordance in global office market cycles stevenson s akimov a hutson e and krystalogianni a concordance in global office market cycles regional studies a large proportion of international real estate investment is concentrated in the office markets of the world s largest cities however many of these global cities are also key financial services centres highlighting the possibility of reduced economic diversification from an investor s perspective this paper assesses the degree of synchronization in cycles across twenty of the world s largest office markets finding evidence of significant concordance across a large number of markets the results highlight the problems associated with commonalities in the underlying economic bases of the markets the concentration of investment also raises the possibility of common flow of funds effects that may further reduce diversification opportunities

the interbank market after august 2007 what has changed and why after the onset of the financial crisis spreads between interbank interest rates on unsecured and secured deposits for the major world currencies became exceptionally large and volatile first we find that the phenomenon was mainly driven by aggregate rather than bank specific factors notably risk aversion and accounting practices by contrast funding liquidity capital shortage and central bank interventions were not important determinants second prior to august 2007 the spread was broadly insensitive to key borrower characteristics whereas afterward it became somewhat more reactive to measures of creditworthiness third conditions for big borrowers became relatively more favorable during the crisis suggesting that moral hazard risks related to the too big to fail argument have increased these results are discussed in the light of theories on the interbank market during a crisis

the fed and short term rates is it open market operations open mouth operations or interest rate smoothing abstract it is widely believed that the fed controls the federal funds rate by altering the degree of pressure in the reserve market through open market operations when it changes its target for the funds rate recently however several analysts have suggested that the fed need not conduct open market operations to change the funds rate rather they argue it is sufficient that the fed indicate its desire for the funds rate this paper notes that there is yet a third alternative the interest rate smoothing hypothesis that suggests that the fed does not move rates per se but rather smooths the transition of rates to the new equilibrium required by economic shocks this paper tests the open market and open mouth alternatives using a methodology first used by cook and hahn journal of monetary economics 1989a 331 finding no evidence that either open market operations or open mouth operations can account for the close relationship between the funds rate and the funds rate target a variety of evidence consistent with the interest rate smoothing hypothesis is considered the results suggest that many changes in the fed s funds rate target are an endogenous response to economic events and suggest that an alternative way to identify exogenous changes in policy is to identify exogenous changes in the fed s funds rate target

an intraday examination of the federal funds market implications for the theories of the reverse j pattern the intraday literature suggests that returns variances and volume form an intraday reverse j pattern two competing theories explain the observed patterns private information about future security prices and trading stoppages the federal funds market allows a unique opportunity to study the causes of intraday patterns because private information common to most markets does not play a role in setting prices we find reverse j variance patterns while accounting for generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity garch model effects our results support trading stops as an explanation for the reverse j pattern and suggest that private information is not a necessary condition for the observed pattern

vector autoregressions and reduced form representations of dsge models abstract the performance of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models is often tested against estimated vars this requires that the data generating process consistent with the dsge theoretical model has a finite order var representation this paper discusses the assumptions needed for a finite order var p representation of a dsge model to exist when a var p is only an approximation to the exact infinite order var the truncated var p may return largely incorrect estimates of the impulse response function the results do not hinge on small sample bias or on incorrect identification assumptions but the bias introduced by truncation can lead to bias in the identification of the structural shocks identification strategies that work in the exact var representation perform poorly in the truncated var

external shocks u s monetary policy and macroeconomic fluctuations in emerging markets estimated structural vars show that external shocks are an important source of macroeconomic fluctuations in emerging markets furthermore u s monetary policy shocks affect interest rates and the exchange rate in a typical emerging market quickly and strongly the price level and real output in a typical emerging market respond to u s monetary policy shocks by more than the price level and real output in the u s itself these findings are consistent with the idea that when the u s sneezes emerging markets catch a cold at the same time u s monetary policy shocks are not important for emerging markets relative to other kinds of external shocks

a var approach to the economics of fdi in china using a vector autoregression var approach this study re examines several hypotheses suggested by the economic literature on the economics of fdi applying quarterly time series data from china a country which has recently become the second largest host country for fdi innovation accounting variance decomposition and impulse response function analysis is applied to analyse the various interrelationships between fdi and other economic variables of interest in a var system the empirical research using this method in the case of china is limited the study therefore provides an interesting advance in the literature on the economics of fdi in china

an instantaneous control model of bank reserves and federal funds management abstract empirical evidence indicates that large banks are generally net buyers of federal funds while small banks tend to be net sellers asymmetric information bank monopoly power or risk aversion arguments have been offered for this phenomenon however these models do not address the close link between bank reserves and federal funds purchases as alternative means of liquidity management our stochastic control model focuses on this link and has three main implications 1 it analyzes interaction between the above mentioned influences 2 it identifies three additional reasons for banks federal funds activity and 3 it examines the transmission of monetary policy in a dynamic framework

a micro model of the federal funds market this paper demonstrates that valuable insights into the determination of federal funds rates can be gained through modeling the micro decisions of market participants fed fund demand functions are derived for different bank valuation functions and several implications are discussed specifically it is i possible to rationalize the observation that large banks are net purchasers and small banks net sellers of fed funds ii to explain the positive spread of fed funds rates over other short term money market rates and iii to link the size of this spread to the federal reserve s underlying monetary policy strategy

commercial real estate prices and stock market returns an international analysis the movement toward globalization of institutional investments requires an understanding of the historical relationship between international commercial real estate price changes and stock returns previous studies have focused on the time series of stock and real estate returns using data from a single country by necessity these studies examined returns and price changes over short intervals creating a bias when property values are smoothed from year to year this study examines the relation between stock returns and changes in property values and rents based on data from 17 countries although we find no relation between real estate values and rents and stock returns in the united states we find significant relations in a number of other countries when the data are pooled the relation between stock returns and both value changes and changes in rental rates is very strong

foreign investors influence on the real estate market capitalization rate evidence from a small open economy abstractthis article adds to the scarce literature on the influence of international investment flows on local real estate values we hypothesize that a greater foreign investor presence in a real estate market results in a lower capitalization rate and examine whether this holds true in the helsinki cbd office market in finland this market provides an interesting case study by being part of a small open economy in which the presence of foreign investors has substantially varied over time the dynamic ols estimations using data for the period 1990 2015 provide support for the hypothesis the baseline results show a highly statistically significant negative impact of foreign investor participation on the capitalization rate the point estimates indicating that a 10 point growth in the share of foreign buyers of the total transaction volume decreases the cap rate by approximately 30 basis points

ownership occupation and risk a view of the city of london office market office returns in the city of london are more volatile than in other uk markets this volatility may reflect fluctuations in capital flows associated with changing patterns of ownership and the growing linkage between real estate and financial markets in the city using current and historical data patterns of ownership in the city are investigated they reveal that overseas ownership has grown markedly since 1985 that owners are predominantly fire sector firms and that there are strong links between ownership and occupation this raises concerns about future volatility and systemic risk in a market strongly influenced by the cyclical behaviour and shocks of the international financial system

the daily market for funds in europe what has changed with the emu this paper shows that the existence of deposit and lending facilities combined with an averaging provision for the reserve requirement are powerful tools to stabilize the overnight rate we reach this conclusion by comparing the behavior of this rate in germany before and after the start of the emu the analysis of the german experience allows us to isolate the effects on the overnight rate of these particular instruments of monetary policy to illustrate that this outcome is a general conclusion and not a particular result of the german market we develop a theoretical model of reserve management which is able to reproduce our empirical findings

the internationalisation of monetary policy abstract the case for formal central bank cooperation remains limited and practical considerations make its implementation difficult that being said central banks need to be engaged in a constant dialogue so as to remain ready for rapid coordinated action in exceptional circumstances also they should strive to strengthen the global financial safety nets within their monetary policy mandates so that they can better address global or regional liquidity crises thereby limiting the case for self insurance

money creation and the shadow banking system many explanations for the rapid growth of the shadow banking system in the mid2000s focus on money demand this paper asks whether the short term liabilities of the shadow banking system behave like money we rst present a simple model where households demand money services which are supplied by three types of claims deposits treasury bills and asset backed commercial paper abcp the model provides predictions for the price and quantity dynamics of these claims as well as the behavior of the banking system in terms of issuance and the monetary authority in terms of open market operations consistent with the model the empirical evidence suggests that the shadow banking system does respond to money demand

government policies and private housing prices in singapore regression models are used to show that interest rates income growth rates and the supply of housing have not played a statistically significant role in the determination of private housing prices in singapore between 1975 and 1994 instead private housing prices in singapore were highly correlated with the prices for public sector built housing moreover the timing of government policies relating to the use of compulsory savings for private housing finance purposes the liberalisation of rules on public housing ownership criterion as well as for housing finance had a significant impact on private housing prices

cross country differences in monetary policy execution and money market rates volatility abstract volatility patterns in overnight interest rates display differences across industrial countries that existing models designed to replicate the features of individual countries markets cannot account for this paper presents an equilibrium model of the overnight interbank market that matches cross country differences in patterns in interest volatility by incorporating differences in how central banks manage liquidity in response to shocks our model is consistent with central banks practice of rationing access to marginal facilities when the objective of stabilizing short term interest rates conflicts with another high frequency objective such as an exchange rate target

international office investment in global cities the production of financial space and systemic risk lizieri c and pain k international office investment in global cities the production of financial space and systemic risk regional studies the paper explores the relationships between uk commercial real estate and regional economic development as a foundation for the analysis of the role of real estate investment in local economic development linkages between economic growth development real estate performance and investment allocations are documented long run regional property performance is not the product of long run economic growth and weakly related to indicators of long run supply and demand changes in regional portfolio weights seem driven by neither market performance nor underlying fundamentals in the short run regional investment shifts show no clear leads or lags with market performance

fixed costs and the behavior of the federal funds rate abstract this paper presents an equilibrium model of the federal funds market that ties movements in the funds rate to changes in the supply of reserves and to a fixed cost facing banks that borrow at the discount window it is found that the existence of the fixed cost is capable of explaining a number of features of the funds market in particular it is critical for explaining occasional instances of extremely high funds rates it also provides an explanation for heterogeneous behavior across banks towards the discount window and for higher average funds rates at the end of maintenance periods

filtering risk away global finance capital transcalar territorial networks and the un making of city regions an analysis of business property development in bangalore india halbert l and rouanet h filtering risk away global finance capital transcalar territorial networks and the un making of city regions an analysis of business property development in bangalore india regional studies this paper contributes to ongoing debates on the landing or anchoring of global finance capital into the urban built environment inspired by recent advances from the school of territorial economics it develops the concept of transcalar territorial networks ttns to explain the processes that result in fixing foreign financial capital into business properties the paper demonstrates that ttns contribute to filter away the risks that foreign investors associate with the complexity of local regional property markets it also highlights the potential consequences on the spatial economic and social dynamics of city regions

the federal funds market and the overnight eurodollar market abstract this paper investigates the effect of daily management of federal reserve accounts by us depository institutions on the interest rate outside the us spindt and hoffmeister journal of financial and quantitative analysis 23 1988 401 griffiths and winters journal of banking and finance 19 1995 1265 and hamilton journal of political economy 104 1996 22 found that the fed funds rate exhibited calendar day effects caused by federal reserve regulations i find that the overnight eurodollar rate shows similar predictable daily changes as does the fed funds rate although the absolute magnitudes are slightly less the empirical results support the hypothesis that the tendencies in daily changes in the two overnight interest rates are caused by the characteristics of the fed funds market

designing targeting rules for international monetary policy cooperation this study analyzes a two country dynamic general equilibrium model with nominal rigidities monopolistic competition and producer currency pricing a quadratic approximation to the utility of the consumers is derived and assumed as the policy objective function of the policymakers it is shown that only under special conditions there are no gains from cooperation and moreover that the paths of the exchange rate and prices in the constrained efficient solution depend on the kind of disturbance that affects the economy it might be the case either for fixed or floating exchange rates despite this result simple targeting rules that involve only targets for the growth of output and for both domestic gdp and cpi inflation rates can replicate the cooperative allocation

serial correlation and the fixed effects model this paper generalizes the durbin watson type statistics to test the ols residuals from the fixed effects model for serial independence also generalized are the tests proposed by sargan and bhargava for the hypothesis that the residuals form a random walk a method for efficient estimation of the parameters is also developed finally an earnings function is estimated using the michigan survey of income dynamics in order to illustrate the uses of the tests and the estimation procedures developed in this paper

day of the week effects in federal funds rates further empirical findings abstract we extend the spindt and hoffmeister 1988 model of the daily operation of an institution s federal reserve account to show strong inter and intra period incentives to borrow and lend in the federal funds market at predictable points in the 10 trading day settlement period using intraday high and low prices we demonstrate changes in the federal funds rate consistent with our model s predictions we provide evidence of predictable changes in the variance of fed funds returns on a daily and intraday basis our analysis confirms that federal reserve requirements result in daily and intraday variances which are not constant

the micromechanics of the federal funds market implications for day of the week effects in funds rate variability the federal funds rate arguably is the most important interest rate in the u s capital market because it plays a central role in monetary policy and the term structure this paper examines the micromechanics of the funds market we show that in a continuous market with asynchronous trading regulatory constraints and accounting conventions that focus agents attention on discrete time instants have important implications for the dynamics of trading activity and realized market prices we also exhibit a model of the market that explains observed regularities in the intertemporal behavior of the funds rate

interest rate corridors and reserves abstract this paper evaluates reserves regimes versus interest rate corridors which have become competing frameworks for monetary policy implementation rate corridors relying on lending and deposit facilities to create ceilings and floors for overnight interest rates evince mixed results on controlling volatility reserve requirements allow period average smoothing of interest rates but even if remunerated are subject to reserve avoidance activities a system of voluntary period average reserve commitments could offer equivalent rate smoothing advantages if central banks created symmetric opportunity costs of meeting or falling short of period average reserve requirements or commitments they could achieve flat reserve demand on settlement day

land and stock prices in japan in late 1991 the total land value in japan was estimated at nearly 20 trillion this was more than 20 percent of the world s wealth or to put it in some other contexts about double the world s equity markets or half again as large as the world s bond markets japanese land was then valued at about five times that of the united states the land under the emperor s palace which is about three quarters of a square mile was estimated to be worth about the same as all the land in california or in canada real estate assets of japanese corporations grew by 2 8 trillion from 1986 to 1988 an increase in valuation roughly equal to the size of the japanese gross national product an equally dramatic rise in stock prices accompanied the rise in land prices at its peak in december 1989 the japanese stock market had a value of about 4 trillion which was about 44 percent of the world s equity market capitalization to put that figure in perspective the value of the equity on all the stock exchanges in the united states in august 1992 was less than 5 trillion but then from its peak in december 1989 to august 1992 the japanese stock market fell by over 60 percent various indices of speculative land values fell a similar amount meanwhile other land prices industrial commercial residential as measured by various indices fell 15 20 percent this paper discusses the rise of japanese stock and land prices in the past four decades and their dramatic decline in the early 1990s to what extent can

a computational model of banks optimal reserve management policy abstract this paper uses numerical methods to model the demand for excess reserves by a representative bank in a framework that includes many realistic features of the current reserve market structure in the united states in particular the model incorporates a 14 day maintenance period and an accurate representation of carryover provisions we use the model to evaluate the effect of various changes to the operating environment increased uncertainty modified penalties and changes to policy paying interest on reserves

an empirical approach to urban land monopoly a case study of the city of barranquilla colombia in this paper we focus on the role and economic effect of land ownership and land monopoly in emerging urban environments land monopoly in conventional economics is a theoretical impossibility

international money supply and real estate risk premium the case of the london office market abstract the main purpose of this study is to deeply investigate the determinants of the risk premium for the central london market between q2 2002 and q3 2015 using a vector autoregression var model we shed new light on the role of central banks in the historical level of the commercial real estate risk premium indeed since the global financial crisis gfc central banks have used unconventional monetary policies increasing the quantity of money available in the economy and creating structural changes therefore we have described the link between monetary policies and real estate using a theoretical is lm mundell fleming framework for a small open economy with a flexible exchange rate to empirically explore this phenomenon we have constructed a monetary index adapted to the office market we find that throughout the whole period 2002 2015 the vacancy rate the employment in services the ftse 100 the new monetary index and the autoregressive parameter are the main determinants of the historical risk premium however this result hides the complex realities of different sub periods finally we study the structural changes introduced by the monetary policy using a structural var model and impulse response function

bank behavior interest rate determination and monetary policy in a financial system with an intraday federal funds market abstract this paper has two purposes one is to construct a formal model of the determination of and relationships between interest rates on funds with 24 hour overnight and intraday terms the second is to use this model to examine the likely effects of alternative federal reserve proposals for addressing the issue of intraday extension of federal reserve credit in the form of daylight overdrafts of bank reserve accounts it is demonstrated that present proposals all entail potentially significant drawbacks for monetary policy

finance business property and urban and regional development halbert l henneberry j and mouzakis f finance business property and urban and regional development regional studies compared with other factors of production the supply of business property and its role in urban and regional development has received comparatively little attention traditional analyses assume that the supply of such property responds to demand in a relatively unproblematic way however there is evidence that institutional structures and processes in the property and capital markets have produced regional imbalances in the quantity quality and price of business accommodation benefiting some places and handicapping others such imbalances are present to different degrees internationally and their characteristics and causes are similarly varied the special issue addresses this gap in knowledge

day to day monetary policy and the volatility of the federal funds rate we propose a model of the interbank money market with an explicit role for central bank intervention and periodic reserve requirements and study the interaction of profit maximizing banks with a central bank targeting interest rates at high frequency the model yields predictions on biweekly patterns of the federal funds rate s volatility and on its response to changes in target rates and in intervention procedures such as those implemented by the fed in 1994 theoretical results are consistent with empirical patterns of interest rate volatility in the u s market for federal funds

simple optimal policy for cash management the average balance requirement case this paper treats a problem of stochastic cash management under an average compensating balance requirement it develops a dynamic programming formulation of the problem in which the relevant state is a unidimensional quantity equivalent to the forecasted average balance at the end of the averaging period under usably broad conditions it establishes the optimality of a transient policy of simple type similar to the two sided inventory type policy familiar from certain earlier studies of stationary cash balance problems having absolute balance requirements the results apply to cases in which the transactions costs contain both fixed and proportional components the paper discusses also a numerical example drawn from the literature of the cash balance problem and shows by simulation of the optimal and simply modified forms of the optimal policy that good protection is afforded against negative balances even though the model does not explicitly constrain the negative balance probabilities

banks as monitors of other banks evidence from the overnight federal funds market this study provides evidence that banks are effective monitors of their peers by showing that the interest rate paid on federal funds transactions reflects differences in credit risk across borrowers in addition the size and relative importance in the funds market of the trading institutions are shown to affect the rates charged for overnight borrowing thereby providing insight into the nature of competition in the federal funds market transaction volume and size of transaction effects are uncovered as is evidence of relationship banking between banks these results are made possible by unique data identifying individual federal funds transactions copyright 2001 by university of chicago press

the secondary circuit of capital reconsidered globalization and the u s real estate sector1 the author examines the u s real estate sector to show how the state shapes global real estate flows and networks of activity through the creation and control of liquid resources the analysis focuses on the role of state laws and regulations in the expansion of the mortgage backed securities markets and the development of real estate investment trusts reits these institutional developments represent a series of ad hoc state efforts to delocalize residential and commercial property and embed real estate financing within global capital markets rather than viewing globalization as weakening the state the author argues that the u s state s capacity to influence the degree and development of liquidity is a powerful mechanism of globalization

heterogeneity in neighborhood level price growth in the united states 1993 2009 examination of detailed geographical information on u s housing transactions from 1993 to 2009 find much heterogeneity at the neighborhood level in when the recent boom began how big the initial jumps in price growth were how long the booms lasted and what types of neighborhoods boomed first there is less neighborhood level heterogeneity in when the bust began and in aggregate price appreciation during the boom this heterogeneity suggests that there was no one dominant cause of the boom we also comment on how very local data may help understand the role of contagion among other housing market phenomena

international monetary policy surprise spillovers abstract this is the first paper to examine international monetary surprise spillovers and to estimate the response of security prices to monetary and nonmonetary surprises monetary surprises have a slope effect on the domestic yield curve short maturity yields adjust much more than longer maturity yields these results are similar to other studies the following results are new us monetary surprises spill over and affect australian yields and equity returns australian monetary surprises do not spill over to the us nonmonetary surprises are much more important than monetary policy surprises in explaining longer maturity yield changes and equity returns

the road less travelled institutional aspects of data and their influence on empirical estimates with an application to tests of forward rate unbiasedness the difference between data used in empirical studies and that envisioned in the theory can influence empirical estimates sometimes by enough that the direction of future research is altered this paper illustrates how in the context of tests of forward rate unbiasedness a lack of articulation about the mechanics underlying foreign exchange market speculation and about the institutional aspects governing spot and forward rate contracts leads to sampling of the data in a way that is not consistent with the theory the authors find that the sampling problems account for some but not all of the bias in the coefficient on the forward premium copyright 1996 by royal economic society

price discovery between private and public housing markets public and private housing markets are usually differentiated in terms of price regulations and policies but they are not necessarily segmented any integration as opposed to segmentation between private and public markets implies that the prices of private housing are interrelated with the prices of public housing determined in the open market if so information revealed in one market will be pertinent for making inferences on prices in the other market this paper addresses the price discovery or relation between public and private housing in view of singapore s substantial public housing programme that has an actively traded secondary market implications for the direction of price causality and upward mobility for households between housing price strata are examined

the financialization of business property and what it means for cities and regions halbert l henneberry j and mouzakis f the financialization of business property and what it means for cities and regions regional studies the papers in the special issue examine the strategies and practices of investors and their relations with other actors involved in the production of business property although the globalization of these activities has occurred largely in the last 10 20 years it has prompted marked changes in the geography of commercial property investment international capital has flowed to a limited number of favoured locations but because of the spatial fixity of real property local actors and institutions remain an important influence on investment decisions this poses challenges for urban development and regeneration policies that depend on private investment capital

foreign liquidity to real estate market ripple effect and housing price dynamics globalisation enables foreign liquidity to access local property markets this paper depicts a strong connection between foreigners property acquisitions and regional housing price movements in singapore testing structure breaks also illustrates a ripple effect of prices from the central city to suburbs a structural vector autoregression incorporates these two observations impulse response function and forecast error variance decomposition show that central region s foreign liquidity shocks can greatly impact housing price growth in not only the central region but also the non central region where foreign buyers are inactive the ripple effect of prices plays an important role non central region s foreign liquidity shocks in contrast have small effects on both regions impacts of foreign liquidity shocks can reach the public housing market where foreigners participation is prohibited the findings are useful to policy makers who consider regulations of foreign home buyers as an instrument to stabilise housing markets

the demand for excess reserves this paper provides an estimate of the demand for excess reserves in the united states it finds that excess reserves are negatively related to the federal funds rate and positively related to transactions deposits it also finds that clearing needs significantly affect the demand for reserves with increases in excess reserves coming in response to lower required reserve balances and higher clearing volume some implications for monetary policy are discussed the demand for excess reserves is at the center of a number of issues in monetary economics while at one time it was featured primarily in the calculation of money multipliers more recently it has figured in federal reserve policy through its connection to the targeting of the federal funds rate each week the open market desk is obligated to forecast the demand for reserves including the demand for excess reserves to determine the amount of reserves to supply through open market operations this shift in the role of excess reserves is reflected worldwide a number of countries have abandoned reserve requirements altogether and the entire connection between monetary policy and the economy is through the demand for excess reserves this paper looks at recent data on excess reserves in the united states to determine the sensitivity of demand to changes in interest rates and other variables affecting the willingness to hold reserves the standard approach to modeling the demand for excess reserves is to treat it as part of a bank s liquidity management decision banks want to hold reserves to avoid overdraft or reserve deficiency penalties on their account at the central bank when facing uncertain flows of funds this general model of the precautionary demand for reserves was given by poole 1968 two basic propositions fall out of this approach the first is that the quantity of excess reserves demanded should vary inversely with short term interest rates which are the opportunity cost of holding reserves assuming that excess reserves pay no interest the second proposition is that since excess reserves are providing a buffer against uncertainty about reserve balances demand should increase with uncertainty the textbook model of excess reserve demand assumes that this uncertainty increases proportionately with the level of transactions deposits this paper finds support for both of these propositions in recent years excess reserves have increased with the growth in transactions deposits and were negatively related to interest rates decreasing roughly 120 million for each percentage point increase in the federal funds rate the role of excess reserves in monetary policy depends on the particular operational strategy adopted by the central bank the approach in the united states shifted in 1982 when the