financial markets and growth the last five years have witnessed a resurgence of interest in the relationship between financial intermediation and economic growth this issue had been extensively studied nearly two decades earlier by goldsmith 1969 mckinnon 1973 shaw 1973 and others who produced considerable evidence that financial development correlates with growth but their work though insightful lacked analytical foundations in traditional growth theory financial intermediation could be related to the level of the capital stock per worker or to the level of productivity but not to their respective growth rates the latter were ascribed to exogenous technical progress the recent revival of interest in the link between financial development and growth stems mainly from the insights and techniques of endogenous growth models which have shown that there can be self sustaining growth without exogenous technical progress and that the growth rate can be related to preferences technology income distribution and institutional arrangements this provides the theoretical underpinning that early contributors lacked tinancial intermediation can be shown to have not only level effects but also growth effects the resulting models have offered important insights into the effect of financial development on growth and vice versa they have also provided new impetus to empirical research on these issues this paper reviews the ground covered so far on the theoretical and empirical front and points to some still unresolved issues

project based mechanisms for emissions reductions balancing trade offs with baselines project based mechanisms for emissions reductions credits like the clean development mechanism pose important challenges for policy design because of several inherent characteristics participation is voluntary so it will not occur without sufficient credits evaluating reductions requires assigning an emissions baseline for a counterfactual that cannot be measured some investments have both economic and environmental benefits and might occur anyway uncertainty surrounds both emissions and investment returns and parties to the project are likely to have more information than the certifying authority the certifying agent is limited in its ability to design a contract that would reveal investment intentions as a result rules for benchmarking emissions may be systematically biased to overallocate and they also risk creating inefficient investment incentives this paper evaluates in a situation with asymmetric information the efficacy of the main baseline rules currently under consideration historical emissions an average industry emissions standard and expected emissions

how to use the clean development mechanism in the residential sector the case of brazilian refrigerators the definition of simple and reliable emission baselines is crucial to foster clean development mechanism cdm projects this paper assesses a project methodology that could boost large scale energy efficiency projects in the sector of domestic appliances the baseline appliance is defined a priori in a conservative manner as the design option minimizing life cycle social costs the project methodology consists in a program which rebates new appliances according to their emission savings compared to the baseline is the proposed baseline acceptable what could be the impact of such project on emissions to address these questions we look for insights from a hypothetical case on brazilian refrigerators a rational choice model is developed which assumes that households select design options minimizing life cycle private costs results suggest that electricity tariff distortions and financial constraints might hamper project performances and allow significant free riding low income households remain trapped into low efficiency choices and high income households adopt outperforming appliances whether rebated or not however simple solutions likely to improve the project methodology do exist c 2005 elsevier ltd all rights reserved

an empirical study on the institutional factors of energy conservation and emissions reduction evidence from listed companies in china corporate excessive energy consumption and emissions are negative externality problems with the basic countermeasure of establishing a series of institutional programs to promote corporate energy conservation and emissions reduction this paper analyzes the influence of institutional factors such as laws tax policies credit policies government subsidies media supervision and marketization degree on corporate energy conservation and emissions reduction from the institutional perspective the data from 84 listed chinese chemical and steel companies from 2006 to 2010 was analyzed using both a fixed effect model and the generalized method of moments gmm model the empirical results demonstrate that these institutional factors positively affect corporate energy conservation and emissions reduction specifically four factors tax policies government subsidies credit policies and media supervision have a significant positive relationship with corporate energy conservation and emissions reduction whereas laws and marketization degree exhibit no significant effects the research findings are theoretically and practically significant to the chinese government with regard to improving the institutional environment and promoting corporate energy conservation and emissions reduction

the role of transnational dimensions in emerging economy technological innovation systems for clean tech the technological innovation system tis framework and its system functions have become a popular analytical tool for the study of clean tech innovation there is increasing attention for the role of emerging economies in global clean tech innovation but the applicability of tis to emerging economies cases is not entirely straightforward a key issue is the limited geographical considerations in particular transnational dimensions in tis whereas earlier perspectives on innovation in emerging economies have stressed the role of such transnational dimensions this paper elaborates transnational tis actor networks and institutions categorizes these in relation to tis functions and describes their potential to induce or block tis development in emerging economies we draw on insights from the perspectives of national learning systems international technology transfer and global production networks for this purpose we conclude that the potential effects of these transnational dimensions may be accurately grasped by the existing list of system functions lending credence to its further application of the tis framework on emerging economy case studies policy makers in emerging economies should recognize these transnational dimensions and seek to optimize their potential effect on domestic tis development taking in to consideration a realistic assessment of its role in the global tis

opening the black box of carbon finance additionality the political economy of carbon finance effectiveness across tanzania uganda and moldova summary this paper identifies conditions under which the clean development mechanism and other carbon finance projects effectively generate genuine additional carbon credits relying on a systematic empirical investigation of afforestation reforestation and bioenergy carbon finance projects across tanzania uganda and moldova at low global carbon prices additionality was related to the interests of project developers and their resulting capacities and motivations for project implementation certain organizations with capacity for mitigation projects were curiously not involved with carbon finance a distinction between neo developmental tanzania and liberal neo developmental uganda and moldova political economy preferences explains variation in the presence or absence of effective project developers

the welfare impact of land redistribution evidence from a quasi experimental initiative in malawi summary land reform may be an effective means of reducing poverty in many developing countries where policy efforts have recently embraced a decentralized market based approach to land redistribution we use household panel data combined with a quasi experimental program to assess the impact of a joint malawi world bank land program on household well being double difference and matching methods are used to address identification sources of bias results point to average positive effects on several productive outcomes of beneficiaries while no effects are found with respect to access to social services there is also evidence of heterogeneous effects by gender and inheritance systems

world poverty and the role of agricultural technology direct and indirect effects agricultural technology can help reduce poverty through direct and indirect effects direct effects are gains for the adopters while indirect effects are gains derived from adoption by others leading to lower food prices employment creation and growth linkage effects conceptualising and measuring these effects is highly complex yet is needed for each region if technology is to be used as an effective instrument for poverty reduction we propose a methodology for doing this in the context of computable general equilibrium modelling and apply it to archetype models for africa asia and latin america results show that the dominant effect of technology on poverty is through direct effects in africa indirect agricultural employment effects in asia and linkage effects through the rest of the economy in latin america in each case increasing the poverty reduction effect through the targeting of technology across crops and through complementary rural development programmes is also explored

international diversification of investments in climate change mitigation abstract numerous studies have shown that international emissions trading can significantly lower the costs of greenhouse gas ghg abatement economic models however ignore the substantial economic and political risks associated with investments in developing countries where according to these models a large share of global ghg abatement takes place we use a mean variance approach to compute international portfolios of carbon abatement activities that balance low abatement costs and investment risks expected returns are derived from marginal abatement cost curves the volatility of the growth rate of regional carbon dioxide emissions is used as an indicator of investment risk we find first that well diversified portfolios can significantly reduce investment risks second the least risk portfolio is distinct from the cost efficient allocation based on equalization of marginal abatement costs and much more costly to implement this indicates that existing models which neglect investment risks overestimate the cost savings due to international emissions trading

who gets the goods a general equilibrium perspective on food aid in mozambique abstract we employ a computable general equilibrium approach to examine the effects of alternative food aid distribution schemes for drought response food aid to mozambique alternative schemes have very distinct impacts on household welfare and prices compared with monetization of food aid by government direct distribution to households by population shares strongly benefits rural households even assuming that government cannot target food aid strictly at drought stricken rural people our results indicate that when improving household welfare is the primary goal of the food aid direct distribution of food aid to households is preferred

growth in post soviet russia a tale of two transitions abstract in the early stages of post soviet russia s economic transition small scale entrepreneurial activity appeared to be a strong engine of growth moreover striking regional variations in initial conditions and adopted policy reforms appeared useful in accounting statistically for observed regional variations in entrepreneurial activity here we investigate whether these relationships have persisted as russia s transition has continued to evolve and find that they have not we then document that the emergence of bank issued credit virtually non existent outside of moscow prior to 2000 has been an important engine of growth since 2000 thus to date russia s post soviet development appears as a tale of two distinct transition paths

nafta s impact on mexico rural household level effects importance of transactions costs and imperfect information in explaining market failures and the functionality of agrarian institutions see bardhan this approach has permitted the analysis of behavioral patterns that previously had been poorly understood but it has been relatively weak for normative purposes aggregate analyses of the impact of trade and policy reforms by contrast have relied on models that generally abstract from these features and postulate instead the existence of perfect markets with exceptions such as surplus labor price regulation fixed nominal exchange rates and mark up prices in certain sectors of the economy these models do not take into account the differential incidence of market failures across households for this rea

optimal investment portfolio in renewable energy the spanish case abstract this article presents a model for investing in renewable energies in the framework of the spanish electricity market in a way that risk is minimised for the investor while returns are maximised the model outlined here is based on an economic model for calculating cash flows intended to obtain the internal rate of return irr of the different energies being studied wind photovoltaic mini hydro and thermo electrical the irrs obtained are considered the returns on investments while their standard deviations are considered associated risks in order to minimise risk a comprehensive portfolio of investments is created that includes all of the available energies by means of a system of linear equations the solution of the linear system is graphically checked using the efficient frontier method for the different financing options several case studies within the renewable energies plan per is its spanish abbreviation that is in force in spain in the period 2005 2010 are analysed in order to illustrate the method as are other case studies using different types of financing helping us to reach the pertinent conclusions

the relationships between cdm project characteristics and cer market prices this study explores the relationship between key characteristics of clean development mechanism cdm projects and certified emission reduction cer prices using multiple correspondence analysis we show that the cer credit prices are likely to have had a greater influence than regional levels of economic development on the sectors regions and sizes of cdm projects there are comparatively few cdm projects in sub saharan africa less south africa and the small scale forestation projects that are characteristic for the region mainly entered the cdm pipeline when cer credit price levels were high latin america hosts a larger number of projects and the small scale methane biofuel and hydro projects that are typical for this region generally also applied for validation under high cer price levels the large industrial gas and energy efficiency projects typical for the middle east northern africa region appear to have been largely insensitive to cer price levels the large number and variety of projects in asia have applied for registration under a broad range of cer price levels

does food aid have disincentive effects on local production a general equilibrium perspective on food aid in ethiopia this paper examined impacts of food aid on domestic food production employing a computable general equilibrium modelling technique and using data from ethiopia the simulation experiments have shown that food aid has unambiguous disincentive effects on domestic food production the removal of food aid caused a modest increase in food prices but this stimulated food production employment and income generation effects of the latter outweighed the adverse effect of the former consequently the removal of food aid led to improvements in aggregate household welfare contrary to some concerns in the food aid literature that any reduction in food aid would hurt the poor the simulation experiments suggested that actually poor rural households and urban wage earners are the ones who benefit most in absence of food aid but entrepreneurs are more likely to encounter a marginal welfare decline we have distinguished between in kind food aid and cash equivalent transfers in order to isolate the disincentives that in kind transfers would make to domestic production from those that are related to household purchasing power problem the expansionary effect of removing food aid becomes significantly larger when it is accompanied by cash equivalent payments because the latter would provide demand side stimulus to agriculture while the removal of in kind transfers would stimulate supply side with the supply and demand side effects reinforcing each other in our modelling framework the only adverse effect would be a modest deterioration in the external current account because the expansionary effects of food aid would cause imports to rise but exports to fall

spice price spikes simulating impacts of saffron price volatility in a gendered local economy wide model summary access to international markets provides smallholders with unprecedented opportunities but also exposes them to world market whims we use a local economy wide impact evaluation lewie model to analyze how the recent global saffron price variability affected morocco s taliouine taznakht region a specialized agro export economy with a stark gender division of labor prices of saffron increased by 71 per year over the 2007 09 period before falling quickly back to their trend our modeling approach allows us to simulate such shocks and evaluate impacts not only on producers but also on the local economies around them in our simulations positive price shocks and increases in productivity both cause large reallocations of labor resources particularly for female workers at harvest time we use monte carlo simulations to evaluate how saffron price variance affects the economy female wage income is especially sensitive to global price variability a 100 increase in saffron price variance leads to 133 increase in female wage income variance but only 36 for males accounting for general equilibrium effects is critical for understanding the ramifications of exposure to export price volatility in poor economies

inertial credit and opportunistic arrears in transition in a transition economy enterprise restructuring may exhibit a laffer curve response to tighter credit as a result of rational collective inertia in the presence of a rigid production structure unenforceable contracts and high adjustment costs a contraction in credit finance subtracts more liquidity than enterprises can generate internally because unrestructured firms are forced to extend trade credit to illiquid buyers an increase in their number increases the availability of forced supplier credit in turn increasing the attractiveness of inertial behavior as trade credit cannot be enforced a critical mass of trade and wage arrears causes pressure for a collective bailout thus validating inertial behavior even by reformable firms

modeling the impact of agricultural growth and government policy on income distribution in india this article uses a limited general equilibrium model to investigate the growth and equity effects of a variety of economic and technical changes and selected agricultural policies in india it explores how changes in food prices rural wages and farm profits associated with the green revolution period affected income distribution between net buyers and sellers of food the model shows that income gains from the green revolution initially accrued to the wealthier rural groups but that after 1972 73 they were transferred to urban consumers and that by 1980 81 the per capita incomes of poor and wealthier rural groups alike were barely above their respective 1960 61 levels the model is also used in counterfactual analysis of the impact of changes in technological demographic investment taxation and income redistribution variables its findings indicate the importance of trade policies for the nature of the equity outcomes from agricultural growth and suggest that a reduction in population growth and an increase in nonagricultural employment and income are required to convert agricultural growth into reduced rural poverty

social acceptance of renewable energy innovation an introduction to the concept this paper introduces the special issue on social acceptance of renewable energy innovation it is a collection of best papers presented at an international research conference held in tramelan switzerland in february 2006 while there are ambitious government targets to increase the share of renewable energy in many countries it is increasingly recognized that social acceptance may be a constraining factor in achieving this target this is particularly apparent in the case of wind energy which has become a subject of contested debates in several countries largely due to its visual impact on landscapes this paper introduces three dimensions of social acceptance namely socio political community and market acceptance factors influencing socio political and community acceptance are increasingly recognized as being important for understanding the apparent contradictions between general public support for renewable energy innovation and the difficult realization of specific projects the third dimension market acceptance has received less attention so far and provides opportunities for further research particularly from management scholars

the impact of banking sector reform in a transition economy evidence from kyrgyzstan we examine the impact of financial sector reform on interest rate levels and spreads using kyrgyz bank level data from 1998 to 2005 we find that in addition to macroeconomic stabilization structural reforms to the banking sector significantly contributed to lower interest rates in particular our results suggest that foreign bank entry and regulatory efforts to increase average bank size were important in reducing deposit rates in contrast we find little evidence that banking sector reform or macroeconomic stabilization has impacted interest rate spreads

investment cost estimates and investment decisions abstract when evaluating new investment projects oil companies traditionally use the discounted cashflow method this method requires expected cashflows in the numerator and a risk adjusted required rate of return in the denominator in order to calculate net present value the capital expenditure capex of a project is one of the major cashflows used to calculate net present value usually the capex is given by a single cost figure with some indication of its probability distribution in the oil industry and many other industries it is a common practice to report a capex that is the estimated 50 50 median capex instead of the estimated expected expected value capex in this article we demonstrate how the practice of using a 50 50 median capex when the cost distributions are asymmetric causes project valuation errors and therefore may lead to wrong investment decisions with acceptance of projects that have negative net present values

agricultural technology adoption and poverty reduction a propensity score matching analysis for rural bangladesh this study aims at shedding some light on the potential impact of agricultural technology adoption on poverty alleviation strategies it does so through an empirical investigation of the relationship between technological change of the green revolution type and wellbeing of smallholder farm households in two rural bangladeshi regions as technology adoption is not randomly assigned but there is self selection into treatment the paper tackles a methodological issue in assessing the causal effect of technology on farm household wellbeing through the non parametric p score matching analysis it pursues a targeted evaluation of whether adopting a modern seed technology causes resource poor farmers to improve their income and decrease the propensity to fall below the poverty line it finds a robust and positive effect of agricultural technology adoption on farm household wellbeing suggesting that there is a large scope for enhancing the role of agricultural technology in directly contributing to poverty alleviation 2006 elsevier ltd all rights reserved

wind farm investment risks under uncertain cdm benefit in china abstract china has set an ambitious target to increase its wind power capacity by 35 gw from 2007 to 2020 the country s hunger for clean power provides great opportunities for wind energy investors however risks from china s uncertain electricity market regulation and an uncertain energy policy framework mainly due to uncertain clean development mechanism cdm benefits prevent foreign investors from investing in china s wind energy the objectives of this paper are to 1 quantify wind energy investment risk premiums in an uncertain international energy policy context and 2 evaluate the impact of uncertain cdm benefits on the net present values of wind power projects with four scenarios this study simulates possible prices of certified emissions reductions cers from wind power projects project net present values npvs have been calculated the project risk premiums are drawn from different and uncertain cer prices our key findings show that uncertain cdm benefits will significantly affect the project npvs this paper concludes that the chinese government needs revising its tariff incentives most likely by introducing fixed feed in tariffs fits and re examining its cdm granting policy and its wind project tax rates to facilitate wind power development and enable china to achieve its wind energy target

the diffusion of clean technologies a review with suggestions for future diffusion analysis abstract this article gives an overview of the literature on clean technology diffusion followed by suggestions for future analysis findings from diffusion analysis are presented in the form of 10 stylised facts helping the reader to see the forest for the trees the overall conclusion is that the diffusion of clean technology same as the diffusion of normal innovations is governed by endogenous mechanism epidemic learning and learning economies and by exogenous mechanisms policy is important for clean technology diffusion but other factors are important too the characteristics of the clean technology absorptive capacities of potential adopters and the age structure of capital it is often overlooked that companies have a choice they can choose between an end of pipe solution a process change adaptation and a change of process substitution this means that the diffusion and evolution of one clean technology will be at the expense of the diffusion of another clean technology something overlooked in studies on clean technology diffusion further research is needed on the influence of public policy on clean technology choice expectations about learning economies and prices adjustment costs network externalities and complementary innovations on clean technology adoption choices

general wisdom concerning the factors affecting the adoption of cleaner technologies a survey 1990 2007 abstract cleaner technologies ct have recently received much attention in diverse media and policy agendas this comes out of the clear role they play in environmental protection and sustainability and the large potential to contribute to economic growth and competitiveness the realization of both potentials depends on the level diffusion and exploitation achieved today very low this article presents a selective survey of papers that today represent the general wisdom concerning the factors affecting adoption as a primary condition to diffusion and exploitation of ct the paper helps to clarify the challenges facing diffusion modelers and policy makers when dealing with policy design assessing the levels of diffusion achieved as well as the factors affecting diffusion of a particular technology the paper ends outlining further research need in the field

mexican agricultural trade under the gatt expected effects from partially lifting tariff barriers on the mexican agricultural sector are investigated using a restricted profit function rpf approach short run and intermediate run effects of the implementation of gatt minimum tariff provisions on mexican agricultural trade are examined specification tests reveal the appropriateness of the rpf approach that exports should not be aggregated with non traded production into a single output and that the farm sector behaves as an almost price taking profit maximizing firm policy simulations suggest important short run changes in agricultural trade and chemical use and intermediate run changes in agricultural trade labour wage chemical use capital investments and net farm income

which renewable energy policy is a venture capitalist s best friend empirical evidence from a survey of international cleantech investors governments around the world have adopted ambitious targets to increase the share of renewable energy and reduce greenhouse gas emissions they pursue a variety of policy approaches to achieve these targets it has been a popular theme for contributions in energy policy to investigate the effectiveness of such policies this article adds a new perspective to the debate namely looking at the policy preferences of private investors in innovative clean energy technology firms we surveyed 60 investment professionals from european and north american venture capital and private equity funds and asked them to assess the effectiveness of various policies in terms of stimulating their interest to invest in innovative clean energy technologies in addition to quantitative rankings we use qualitative interview data to capture additional information on why investors prefer some policies over others the combined analysis compensates for the inherent limitations of a quantitative ranking using generic policy types the results of this exploratory analysis demonstrate that all other things being equal investors in our sample perceived feed in tariffs to be the most effective renewable energy policy the overall preference for feed in tariffs is even more pronounced among investors based in europe and with higher exposure to clean energy

from lagging to leading technological innovation systems in emerging economies and the case of chinese wind power there is increasing attention for the contribution of emerging economies to global innovation including innovation of renewable energy technologies the technological innovation systems tis framework presents a list of system functions for the analysis of the development of a technology it has often been applied to renewable energy technologies but with a strong focus on advanced economies in this paper we elaborate on emerging economy innovation system formation structured according to tis functions rather than analysing development of the technology we analyse the development of the chinese tis vis a vis the global forefront key to this notion is that tis especially for clean tech are transnational phenomena lagging tis depend on the global tis whereas leading tis contribute to its formation it is concluded that china has reduced its dependence on foreign knowledge and investment but the outward contribution remains limited the main challenge to foreign market expansion lies in reforming the domestic tis to focus on turbine quality rather than cost reduction demonstration projects are needed especially for large capacity and offshore turbine models in order to build up operational history and get quality certification

emissions trading and investment decisions in the power sector a case study in finland abstract organizations which consider investment in or divestment of power production licences capacity within the european community are exposed to the impacts of the european union emission allowance trading scheme eu ets in this paper the consequences of the eu ets on investment decisions are explored in a country specific setting in finland first we review the general mechanisms through which the eu ets influences size timing and cashflows of an investment next we discuss the projected changes in finnish power producers investment environment and examine the financial impacts due to the eu ets on a case investment decision a hypothetical condensing power plant 250 mwe the standard discounted cash flow dcf analysis is extended to take into account the value of two real options the option to wait and the option to alter operating scale in a quantitative investment appraisal the impact of emissions trading not only depends on the expected level of allowance prices but also on their volatility and correlation with electricity and fuel prices the case study shows that the uncertainty regarding the allocation of emission allowances is critical in a quantitative investment appraisal of fossil fuel fired power plants

global warming endogenous risk and irreversibility this paper develops two period analytical and numerical models to study the question given a stock of greenhouse gases that poses a risk of future damages of unknown magnitude and the possibility of learning about damages how do sunk abatement capital and a nondegradable stock of greenhouse gases affect optimal first period investment we show that both affect investment the former negatively and the latter positively additionally endogenous risk the risk of damages dependent on the stock of gases results in an increase in optimal investment for any level of capital sunkness or greenhouse gas degradability quantitatively the effect of sunk capital is stronger than the effect of greenhouse gas irreversibility or that of endogenous risk

rural poverty in latin america determinants and exit paths abstract while rural poverty in latin america has declined over the last three decades success has been uneven across countries and rural poverty remains huge reduction in the number of rural relative to urban poor has been mainly the outcome of migration not of successful rural development we show that rural incomes are explained by the asset position of households and the characteristics of the context where assets are used given heterogeneity in asset positions and contexts many strategies to escape poverty consequently exist we identify four paths out of poverty exit agricultural pluriactive and assistance successful rural development to promote the agricultural and pluriactive paths requires a wholesale new approach based on regional development decentralization and participation agricultural technology has a role to play in these two strategies in latin america however the bulk of the benefits from technological change has been captured through indirect effects via the price of food employment creation and contributions to aggregate growth

the governance of clean energy in india the clean development mechanism cdm and domestic energy politics this paper explores the ways in which clean energy is being governed in india it does so in order to improve our understanding of the potential and limitations of carbon finance in supporting lower carbon energy transitions and to strengthen our appreciation of the role of politics in enabling or frustrating such endeavors in particular we emphasize the importance of politics and the nature of india s political economy in understanding the development of energy sources and technologies defined as clean both by the united nations clean development mechanism cdm and leading international actors by considering the broad range of institutions that exert formal and informal political influence over how the benefits and costs of the cdm are distributed the paper highlights shortcomings in the narrow way in which cdm governance has been conceptualized to date this approach goes beyond analysis of technocratic aspects of governance often reduced to a set of institutional design issues in order to appreciate the political nature of the trade offs that characterize debates about india s energy future and the relations of power which will determine how and on whose terms they are resolved

inequality transfers and growth new evidence from the economic transition in poland this paper analyzes the evolution of inequality in poland during the economic transition that began in 1989 1990 using microdata from the household budget surveys we find that after a brief spik

agricultural trade liberalization and low income countries a general equilibrium multimarket approach integrated multimarket general equilibrium models are constructed to analyze the impact on poor cereal importers of rising world prices following oecd trade liberalization archetypes contrast african countries in which cereal imports are not competitive with domestic production africa i to african and asian countries where they are competitive results show rising food import bills and exchange rate depreciation in africa i and the opposite in the other two regions policy implications include promoting agricultural exports from africa i and promoting food crops for import substitution in the other regions food aid needed to shelter the poor during the transition period is calculated

carbon market risks and rewards firm perceptions of cdm investment decisions in brazil and india the carbon market experiences of brazil and india represent policy success stories under several criteria a careful evaluation however reveals challenges to market development that should be addressed in order to make the rollout of a post 2012 cdm more effective we conducted firm level interviews covering 82 cdm plants in the sugar and cement sectors in brazil and india focusing on how individual managers understood the potential benefits and risks of undertaking clean development mechanism cdm investments our results indicate that the cdm operates in a far more complex way in practice than that of simply adding a marginal increment to a project s internal rate of return our results indicate the following first although anticipated revenue played a central role in most managers decisions to pursue cdm investments there was no standard practice to account for financial benefits of cdm investments second some managers identified non financial reputational factors as their primary motivation for pursuing cdm projects and third under fluctuating regulatory regimes with real immediate costs and uncertain cdm revenue managers favored projects that often did not require carbon revenue to be viable the post 2012 cdm architecture can benefit from incorporating these insights and in particular reassess goals for strict additionality and mechanisms for achieving it

transaction costs institutional rigidities and the size of the clean development mechanism transaction costs and institutional rigidities will reduce the attractiveness of the kyoto protocol flexibility mechanisms compared to domestic greenhouse gas abatement options the clean development mechanism cdm in particular is likely to entail considerable costs of baseline development project registration verification and certification the activities implemented jointly pilot phase and the prototype carbon fund programme give indications about these costs there is evidence that projects with high implementation costs have high transaction costs as well moreover cdm projects have to be approved by host country institutions and so far only a small share of host countries has been able to set up these institutions several of the larger host countries intend to only approve projects if the market price is above a certain threshold some governments will also levy fees to finance costs of approval bodies we assess these issues using a quantitative model of the kyoto protocol permit market we conclude that while changes in demand from annex b countries remain the crucial factor the size of the cdm will depend to a significant degree on transaction costs and institutional barriers in host countries

the great divide and beyond financial architecture in transition a growing and deepening divide has opened up between transition countries where economic development has taken off and those caught in a vicious cycle of institutional backwardness and macroeconomic instability this great divide is visible in almost every measure of economic performance gdp growth investment government finances growth in inequality general institutional infrastructure and increasingly in measures of financial development strategies for financial development have differed dramatically across countries and over time offering interesting opportunities to study the links between real and financial sector development

can the risks of the kyoto mechanisms be reduced through portfolio diversification evidence from the swedish aij program through joint implementationand the clean development mechanism reductionsof greenhouse gas emissions achieved abroad canbe credited to domestic firms however thetechnical economic and political risksinvolved may prevent the private sector frominvesting in such projects this paperdescribes three types of risks which emissionreduction projects are exposed to eleven pilotprojects carried out under the activitiesimplemented jointly aij program and financedby sweden are evaluated actual project costsare found to exceed projected costs in allcases annual emission reductions also deviatefrom their expected values and vary stronglyover time supporting the hypothesis that suchprojects are risky business the riskmanagement tool portfolio diversification isapplied to a sample of swedish aij projects the results indicate that diversification canreduce the risks of greenhouse gas mitigationprojects significantly thus carbon funds area promising way of lowering the risks of thekyoto mechanisms for private sector investors

prospective deficits and the asian currency crisis this paper argues that a principal cause of the 1997 asian currency crisis was large prospective deficits associated with implicit bailout guarantees to failing banking systems the expectation that these future deficits would be at least partially financed by seigniorage revenues or an inflation tax on outstanding nominal debt led to a collapse of the fixed exchange rate regimes in asia we articulate this view using a simple model whose key feature is that a speculative attack is inevitable once the present value of future government deficits rises we present empirical evidence in support of the key assumptions underlying our interpretation of the crisis