stopping agents from cheating abstract when a principal hires two or more agents to work in a correlated environment each agent s reward will depend on the other s performance unfortunately with just the usual optimal incentive constrained contracts being offered the agents strictly prefer to play equilibrium strategies other than those desired by the principal they cheat however the principal can use a more subtle contractual mechanism to stop them from cheating at no extra cost this mechanism uses one agent to police the other and exploits certain properties of the optimal contracts

patents or prizes monopolistic r d and asymmetric information abstract in this paper a model of r d regulation is analysed to compare the effect of two types of asymmetric information on the welfare properties of patents and prizes as r d incentive instruments when there is a technological leader using the case of full information as a benchmark it is found that the trade off between patents and prizes does not change if the innovator s r d costs are private information whereas the relative efficiency of patents decreases if the government is less informed about the market for the innovation

optimal incentive schemes when only the agents best output matters to the principal standard principal agent models assume that the principal s payoff is a function of the total output of all agents in many real world situations however the principal s payoff is based solely on the best of the agents outputs e g the first agent to make an innovation the most creative advertising campaign or the cheapest product design the results obtained from such a model differ from the standard results in a number of respects for instance even when identical agents perform identical tasks the optimal incentive scheme will often differ across agents also the principal may want to increase the variance of the agents output or reduce the correlation of output across agents even when the agents are risk averse

regulation of multiagent research and development this article focuses on the regulation problems raised by two specific characteristics of research and development first it is normally desirable that several units pursue the same goal and second that only the best of the final products made by these units is worthwhile to society when firms have private information these characteristics are seen to generate a substitution effect which in some situations implies that the resources allocated to r d under asymmetric information are excessive relative to the full information allocation i thus identify asymmetric information as one possible source of excessive allocations to research and development

gerrymandering and the voting rights act of 1982 a public choice analysis of turnover in the u s house of representatives the present paper uses various data sets and statistical techniques to examine the outcome of gerrymandering under the voting rights act of 1982 on turnover rates in the u s house of representatives as well as the competitiveness in party primaries for house seats evidence presented here suggests that political redistricting at the federal level namely for u s house seats has tended to favor incumbents in both the party primaries and general elections in fact some results suggest that turnover rates for 1988 are between 8 9 and 10 3 percentage points lower within states that engaged in such redistricting efforts our findings generally support the main tenets of the public choice view of legislator behavior

shirking and sorting in a political market with finite lived politicians this paper analyzes principal agent slack in the context of a political market composed of voters challengers and incumbents the introduction of a last period via finite livedness in combination with voters imperfect information about politicians preferences causes time varying shirking behavior on the part of politicians political markets eventually sort out those politicians with significantly deviant policy preferences potentially providing a solution to the last period problem and enabling politicians to make credible commitments in the extreme sorting can insure that it is not worthwhile for potential shirkers to run for office a systematic relationship between political shirking and number of terms in office may exist and depends on how quickly sorting takes place we show that evidence of little if any shirking is quite consistent with politicians having diverse and strongly held policy preferences in addition if sorting is a significant feature of political markets cross sectional studies will tend to oversample little and non shirking politicians compared to longitudinal studies reinterpretations of existing empirical work are also discussed

term limits and electoral accountability abstract periodic elections are the main instrument through which voters can hold politicians accountable from this perspective term limits which restrict voters ability to reward politicians with re election appear counterproductive we show that despite the disciplining effect of elections term limits can be ex ante welfare improving from the perspective of voters by reducing the value of holding office term limits can induce politicians to implement policies that are closer to their private preferences such truthful behavior by incumbents in turn results in better screening of incumbents we characterize under which circumstances two term or even longer term limits are the optimal institution for voters

the incumbency dilemma and rent extraction by legislators an incumbent is able to shirk or otherwise obtain rents based on his tenure of office because more senior representatives are better able to advance their legislative agendas than are more junior members the realization of incumbent rents implies that an electoral prisoners dilemma occurs at the level of voters across electoral districts pivotal voters in each district would benefit if all incumbents were replaced by challengers with similar legislative programs because the cost of incumbent rents can be avoided but each benefits if his representative has more seniority than those from other districts

campaign finance reform and electoral competition using state senate data from 1984 through the beginning of 2002 this paper finds that campaign donation regulations clearly reduce the competitiveness in political races this is reflected in several dimensions conservative estimates indicate that different donation limits are associated with anywhere from a 4 to over a 23 percentage point increase in win margins the regulations increase the probability that only one candidate will run for office and they increase the probability that incumbents win re election campaign finance regulations also tend to reduce the number of candidates who run for office by an average of about 20 percent

racing with uncertainty and strategic interaction between competitors as the race unfolds most of the existing literature examines one or other of these features but not the two combined our aim is to see how the efforts of competitors in a race vary with the intensity of rivalry between them in our principal model whch is of a one dimensional race it is shown that the leader in the race makes greater efforts than the follower and efforts increase as the gap between competitors decreases under certain conditions the same results hold in our second related model which is of a two dimensional race

an analysis of the impact of congressional term limits we examine the impact of a six term tenure limit on members of the u s house of representatives the first part of this study develops a methodological framework for simulating the quantitative impact of term limits the second part of this study uses this framework to estimate the effects of term limits on i the value of holding office ii turnover and iii the size of the democratic majority in the house both steady state and transition period effects are explored i introduction the widespread support for term limitations seems to have caught both popular commentators and academic researchers by surprise 1 why do voters want them and what is the likely impact of such legislation a small but growing literature concentrates on the first of these two questions adams and kenny 1986 dick and loft 1993 in contrast this paper addresses the second in particular it investigates the empirical consequences of imposing a twelve year six term tenure limit on the members of the u s house of representatives both the degree and timing of the impact of the alternative regimes are investigated here the issue of timing arises because term limits can have very different effects depending upon how they treat currently serving congressmen we focus our investigation on the two legislative regimes that we believe have the greatest chance of being implemented limited grandfathering and complete grandfathering 2 assuming term limit legislation is passed in 1992 we trace out the time paths of the effects associated with each of these regimes as we shall see there are important transitional differences between the two the paper proceeds as follows section ii addresses the methodology used in this analysis section iii considers the impact of term limits on i the value of holding office ii turnover and iii the democratic majority in the house section iv concludes ii methodology the first concern of this paper is to model the seniority structure of the house in the absence of congressional term limits let n t identify the number of congressmen in their nth term at time t let r define the proportion of congressmen that successfully move from term n to term n l note that there are a number of reasons for not continuing to an additional term besides electoral defeats there are voluntary departures to seek other elective office or private sector employment retirements and deaths given any set of continuation rates r sub 1 r sub 2 and an initial distribution of representatives across terms n sub 1 t n sub 2 t one can construct what the seniority structure of congress will look like any number of periods into the future for instance the number of congressmen in their jth term at time t m is given by mathematical expression omitted where n sub 1 t 1 m j identifies the number of representatives who enter congress in time period t 1 m j t 1 and j and m o ifj m 1 one simply takes the number of congressmen currently serving their j m th term and multiplies this by the appropriate product of continuation rates if j m 1 one needs to identify the number of congressmen who will enter congress in time period t l m since congress always has 435 members the number of arrivals must always equal the number of departures the number of first term congressmen who leave office at the end of time period t is given by 1 r sub 1 n sub 1 t similarly the number of second term congressmen who leave office at the end of time period t is given by 1 r sub 2 n sub 2 t thus the number of representatives who will enter congress in time period t l is given by mathematical expression omitted equations 1 and 2 allow one to recursively solve for n sub 1 t 1 m j for all m j 1 i

trend inflation and monetary policy regimes in japan abstract this paper examines the dynamics of trend inflation in japan over the last three decades based on the smooth transition phillips curve model we find that there is a strong connection between the trend inflation and monetary policy regimes the results also suggest that the introduction of the inflation targeting policy and quantitative and qualitative easing in the beginning of 2013 successfully escaped from the deflationary regime but were not enough to achieve the 2 inflation target finally our results indicate the significance of exchange rates in explaining the recent fluctuations of inflation and the importance of oil and stock prices in maintaining the positive trend inflation regime

the economics of invention incentives patents prizes and research contracts though public intervention in the market for research is virtually universal economists have paid surprisingly little attention to the choice of the form of research incentive in a given market structure many studies concentrate on patents but any assumption of their superiority over other incentives has been founded on intuition rather than on formal analysis in this paper i analyze the choice between three of the most common alternative means of public intervention in the research market namely patents prizes and direct contracting for research services i show why and under what conditions any one of the three may be preferred by a social welfare maximizing administrator in a competitive economy using a model that for the first time pays explicit attention to differences in the informational roles of each of these alternatives in the extensive literature on the economics of patents see arnold plant 1934 fritz machlup 1958 charles taylor and z a silberston 1973 morton kamien and nancy schwartz 1975 and f m scherer 1977 for valuable surveys formal analysis weighs the benefits of patents as a solution to the market failure associated with the inappropriability of knowledge against the welfare cost due to the restriction on the use of the knowledge generated and this tradeoff is optimized by patent life adjustment in william nordhaus 1969 scant analytical attention is paid to alternative incentive mechanisms an exception is ben yu 1981 who considers the role of prior contracting for inventions but as many writers for example dan usher 1964 yoram barzel 1968 joseph stiglitz 1969 carole kitti 1973 glenn loury 1979 partha dasgupta and stiglitz 1980a have pointed out in various contexts the incentive offered by an unlimited patent to competitive researchers may be excessive due to the common pool problem discussed further in section i below if the patent administrator and researchers share the same information as implicitly assumed in previous models then the patent life limitation can be adjusted to provide the optimal patent incentive given the common pool problem but in all such models patents would not be chosen in a fully optimized fiscal system researchers and the administrator are assumed to have identical information about the shadow price of potential inventions a patent is just a means of turning this shadow price into a monetary reward but monetary compensation can instead be offered directly to researchers by the state assuming that patent revenues incur a higher deadweight loss than an equivalent amount of public funds financed by less distortionary means for example a minimally efficient tax system appropriate prizes or government contracts are socially preferable to patents with optimal lives if the patent is ever to be the optimal incentive mechanism for research it must possess advantages not captured in existing models informal discussions of patents emphasize their informational role to include the latter as a justification for decentralized invention incentives i incorporate an ex ante imbalance of information about costs and benefits of research in the model presented in section ii but this alone is not quite enough it is further necessary to specify that the terms of the award must be fixed before department of economics economic growth center box 1987 yale station yale university new haven ct 06520 i thank with the usual caveat marguerite alejandro wright cindy arfken martin baily nuong brennan steven englander robert evenson richard levin richard nelson susan rose ackerman denis wright and two referees for assistance of various kinds

strategic tax competition implications of national ownership abstract two jurisdictions compete to capture the rents of a large multinational enterprise mne which invests locally and which is partly owned by local investors the mne contributes to local welfare by tax payments and dividends and it has private information about the efficiency of the operations in the two localisations it is shown that the distortions in the mne s real investment portfolio are determined by a trade off between fiscal externalities and equity externalities and that investments in the case of strategic tax competition may be lower than in the co operative case ownership matters and we show how the firm may reduce its overall tax payments by influencing the distribution of owner shares between investors in the two countries

the simple economics of research portfolios this article identifies biases in market portfolios of parallel research projects arising from the noncongruence of social goals and private aspirations occasioned by those circumstances where the market rewards only the winner and where the winner is awarded the entire social surplus it is shown that under risk neutrality this noncongruence implies that t he market encourages the development of too many discoveries too lar ge a spread in the distribution of the quality of discoveries and an excessive occurrence of multiple discoveries copyright 1987 by royal economic society

a critical review and an extension of the political shirking literature after substituting actual and real changes for proposed and nominal changes in budgetary and employment levels it is clear that the size and scope of the federal leviathon had not been reduced over 1982 83 it is also clear that the agencies which witnessed real budget cuts over this period were of minor importance in terms of the total u s budget future research on why only small agencies receive real budget cuts will provide us with a better understanding of the budgetary process

term limits causes and consequences this paper consults multiple literatures to specify andevaluate the economic rationales for term limitation particularly on congress i first consider theories that aroseto explain among related issues why individual states mightunilaterally self impose term limits on their own delegationsto congress next i consider two main lines of argument foruniversal limits both of which begin with the empiricalphenomenon of high and rising congressional tenure first supporters of term limits argue that higher tenure biaseslegislatures toward inefficiency big government highspending second higher tenure creates inefficient anti competitive conditions in the legislative election market term limitation would remedy these inefficiencies by virtue ofdecreasing average tenure these claims are then evaluated inlight of the evidence amassed in the literature based on theliterature reviewed this paper finds that while term limitswill reduce average tenure there is no evidence to suggestthat term limits will affect the underlying causes of theseinefficiencies further research on a more general reform which would strike deeper at these underlying causes isimplied

the economics of split ticket voting in representative democracies in u s elections voters often vote for candidates from different parties for president and congress voters also express dissatisfaction with the performance of congress as a whole and satisfaction with their own representative the authors develop a model of split ticket voting in which government spending is financed by uniform taxes the benefits from this spending are concentrated while the model generates split ticket voting overall spending is too high only if the president s powers are limited overall spending is too high in a parliamentary system the authors model can be used as the basis of an argument for term limits copyright 1997 by american economic association

adverse selection and renegotiation in procurement as was shown by dewatripont optimal long term contracts are generally not sequentially optimal the parties ex post renegotiate them to their mutual advantage this paper fully characterizes the equilibrium of a simple two period procurement situation and studies the extent to which renegotiation reduces ex ante welfare i a central result is that like in the non commitment case the second period allocation is optimal for the principal conditionally on his posterior beliefs about the agent ii the first period allocation exhibits an increasing amount of pooling when the discount factor grows iii with a continuum of types it is never optimal to induce full separation the paper also analyzes whether renegotiated long term contracts yield outcomes resembling those under either unnegotiated long term contracts or a sequence of short term contracts and it links the analysis with the multiple unit durable good monopoly problem

the dynamics of incentive contracts the paper studies a simple two period principal agent model in which the principal updates the incentive scheme after observing the agent s first period performance the agent has superior information about his ability the principal offers a first period incentive scheme and observes some measure of the agent s first period performance cost or profit which depends on the agent s ability and unobservable first period effort the relationship is entirely run by short term contracts in the second period the principal updates the incentive scheme and the agent is free to accept the new incentive scheme or to quit the strategies are required to be perfect and updating of the principal s beliefs about the agent s ability follows bayes rule the central theme of the paper is that the ratchet effect leads to much pooling in the first period first for any first period incentive scheme there exists no separating equilibrium second when the uncertainty about the agent s ability is small the optimal scheme must involve a large amount of pooling the paper also gives necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of partition equilibria and looks at the effect of cost uncertainty

reconciling voters behavior with legislative term limits a puzzle exists over why voters continually re elect their congressional and state representatives although these same voters often support initiatives to limit the number of terms that their legislators may serve residents of california colorado and oklahoma voted in 1990 to limit the terms of their state legislators to tenures ranging from six to twelve years 1 in california these same voters however re elected 87 of 91 or 96 percent of all incumbent state representatives and senators whose terms they sought to limit 2 among re elected incumbents 67 or 77 percent had served as long as or longer than the maximum term prescribed under their state s term limit initiative voters defeated only two incumbents who would have been removed under the terms of california s tenure restrictions had they been in effect similar voter behavior characterized recent state elections in colorado and oklahoma 3 more generally these seemingly contradictory voter preferences also are apparent in public opinion polls at the federal level while 62 percent of voters immediately prior to the 1990 general elections indicated their intentions to reelect their congressman that same poll showed that only 24 percent said they approve of the way congress is handling its job gallup and newport 1990 pp 36 37 support for term limit initiatives and the low public esteem of legislators as a group both appear to be inconsistent with voters strong preferences for their own representative and the regular reelection of incumbents

incumbent performance and electoral control in the pure theory of electoral competition citizens compare the platforms of the candidates and vote for the one whose platform is preferred candidate strategies are identified with promises about future performance in office models of this sort have been developed in both static mckelvey 1975 and dynamic kramer 1977 i settings and all appear to have the property that if the set of alternatives is large enough in some sense equilibrium platforms rarely exist but these models have another feature that is quite as disturbing as their instability in the static setting discussed by mckelvey little attention is paid to the possibility that once in office the politician s preferences may diverge from those of his constituents and that he may therefore choose policies at variance from his platform instead it is simply assumed that promises will be kept whether or not such behavior is congruent with the interest of the officeholder it is sometimes argued that an enforcement mechanism may exist to discipline politicians for failing to keep promises but without a specification of the mechanism it is not obvious that it would be in the interests of the

the last period problem in politics do congressional representatives not subject to a reelection constraint alter their voting behavior this study of roll call voting behavior in the u s house of representatives empirically documents the existence of an important simultaneity bias in the heretofore much investigated relationship between legislator ideological shirking and the security with which a legislator holds office the results indicate that while greater security allows a policymaker more leeway for ideological consumption increases in ideological on the job consumption also diminish a policymaker s security in office

optimal contracts for teams in a team subject to both adverse selection each member s ability is known only to himself and moral hazard effort cannot be observed optimal contracts are under certain conditions linear in the team s output the outcome is the same whether the principal observes just the total output or each individual s contribution thus monitoring is not needed to prevent shirking by team members instead the role of monitoring is to discipline the monitor production is a collective enterprise by workers in a firm or firms in a joint venture the synergy that is the reason for the team s existence may mean that an individual s contribution to the team s output is not distinguishable so that it is impossible to pay him according to his own productivity how should the principal remunerate the team members so as to maximize his own profit in this paper we analyze incentives in teams with asymmetric information both adverse selection each member s ability is known only to himself and moral hazard effort cannot be observed directly holmstrom 1982 showed that in a team model with moral hazard the principal can ensure an outcome arbitrarily close to the full information ideal by using a contract that punishes each team member arbitrarily severely whenever team output falls below some target however this seems to be an unrealistically drastic way of solving the moral hazard problem in our model we in effect prevent the principal from using such a contract by introducing adverse selection in addition to moral hazard and by assuming that ability and effort interact in such a way that the principal is unable to disentangle an agent s effort from his ability under the assumption that the principal and the team members are risk neutral we shall show that the principal can implement his information constrained optimum simply by offering each agent a payment linear in the team s output although the essential feature of our analysis is the interaction between adverse selection and moral hazard this result can be understood by first considering the special case in which the agents abilities are common knowledge in this case the moral hazard problem can be completely solved the principal can do as well as he

multinationals tax competition and outside options abstract we analyze tax competition when a multinational firm has invested in two countries but also has an outside option e g towards a third country an interesting finding is that more attractive outside options for firms may constitute a win win situation the firm as well as its present host countries may gain when this occurs the reason that it benefits the host countries is that an enhanced outside option reduces the inefficiencies of tax competition an implication of the result is that better outside options for multinational firms may reduce the gains from host countries policy coordination and thus reduce those countries incentives to coordinate their policies also with a development where outside options become more accessible the perceived costs of tax competition e g in terms of underprovision of public goods may be overestimated our findings may also have implications for international negotiations since it provides an argument for mutual reduction of entry barriers as this may improve outside options

the relationship between congressional spending and tenure with an application to term limits whether term limits would increase or decrease federal spending depends on the reason for the causal relationship between tenure and spending we investigate this subject by empirically studying congressional spending and tenure for all united states house and senate members who entered congress between the 94th and 102nd congresses 1975 1992 as our measure of congressional spending we use the national taxpayers union s congressional spending scores our study finds that a statistically significant relationship exists between congressional spending and tenure for some groups of congressmen we then test three hypotheses relating tenure and spending no single hypothesis is consistent with all of our empirical results nevertheless the small sizes of the empirical effects estimated in this study suggest that term limits would have an inconsequential impact on the level of federal spending at least via the moral hazard mechanisms described in this paper

optimal tenure of elected public officials constitutional limits on the tenure of elected chief executives are a prominent feature of many governments yet they have received little attention from economists working in the field of political behavior this paper develops an analysis of tenure limits and their incidence the analysis assumes that the limits substitute for more familiar electoral controls such as elections recalls and impeachment proceedings we assume that restrictions are imposed if they cause the constitutionally decisive voter to be better off on average this assumption although not a standard one applied to policy in general is fairly common in the literature on constitutional choice where the memberships of interest groups later to be formed are plausibly unknown at the time of the constitutional convention 1 the decision to restrict is undertaken in an environment of uncertainty and naturally it is not without its costs it is clear for instance that restriction substitutes inexperienced politicians for experienced ones moreover a tenure limit generates an incentive problem during the final term in office since no further electoral test remains 2 this lame duck

using cost observation to regulate firms the paper emphasizes the use of accounting data in regulatory or procurement contracts when the supplier 1 has superior information about the cost of the project and 2 invests in cost reduction the main result states that under risk neutrality the supplier announces an expected cost and is given an incentive contract linear in cost overruns this optimal contract moves toward a fixed price contract as the announced cost decreases an investment choice is then introduced and the use of a rate of return regulation is studied

optimal incentive contracts with multiple agents abstract a setting in which a single principal contracts with two agents who possess perfect private information about their own productivity is considered with correlated productivities each agent s private information also provides a signal about the other agent s productivity in contrast to the setting in which there is only one agent it is shown that such private information may be of no value to the agents it is only if the agents are risk averse that their private information may allow them to command rents moreover when the agents are constrained only to reveal their private information truthfully as a nash equilibrium the pareto optimal incentive scheme may induce the agents to adopt strategies other than truth telling this leads to the consideration of truth telling equilibria that are not pareto dominated in the subgame played by the agents among all such equilibria the one preferred by the principal restricts one agent to tell the truth as a dominant strategy and the other as a nash response to truth

term limitation in a dynamic model of partisan balance in november 1992 voters in fourteen states considered ballot propositions to adopt term limits for members of congress all fourteen propositions passed ten received more than 60 support bringing the total number of states with congressional term limits to fifteen much of the discussion of term limitation has focused on issues of representation the strength of parties and the functioning of congress after the adoption of limits benjamin and malbin 1992 will 1992 this paper explores an important but less discussed consequence of term limitation its impact on the partisan balance of legislatures we inquire how electoral dynamics incumbent advantage and voluntary retirement interact with a term limit to produce a new balance between parties in a two party legislature which party is favored by the introduction of term limits how does the length of the term limit matter are there conditions such that one party will be favored by any limit regardless of how restrictive

countervailing incentives in agency problems abstract we analyze countervailing incentives in agency problem countervailing incentives exist when the agent has an incentive to understate his private information for some of its realizations and to overstate it for others when countervailing incentives arise pooling generally characterizes the equilibrium contract furthermore performance is distorted both above and below efficient levels in addition the agent s rents generally increase with the realization of his private information over some ranges and decrease over other ranges we demonstate that the creation of countervailing incentives can enhance aggregate welfare

term limits and electoral competitiveness evidence from california s state legislative races california s legislative term limits have dramatically reduced campaign expenditures real expenditures during the three general elections after the term limits initiative passed in 1990 were lower than in even 1976 this drop has occurred at the same time that races have become closer contests and more candidates are running for office by any measure term limits have coincided with large changes in the level of political competition even before term limits have forcibly removed a single politician from office the changes are so large that more incumbents are being defeated races are closer more candidates are running and fewer single candidate races than occur at any other time during our sample period from 1976 to 1994

predicting the institutional effects of term limits in this paper we develop a model to predict the seniority turnover and transition consequences of term limit reforms for any institution with a regularized procedure for rotating membership with this model we can predict the number of members who will be serving in their last term at any given time once an institution reaches a stable state under term limit reforms for example our results show that for the u s senate current term limit proposals will result in a substantial increase in the number of lame duck members and a significant reduction in average seniority we make no claims as to the public policy effects of term limit proposals however our model can be used to design a proposal that will maximize any benefits or minimize any public policy effects found to be associated with term limit reforms

time series evidence on shirking in the u s house of representatives this paper presents time series evidence on the voting behavior of members of the u s house of representatives from 1975 to 1990 the empirical results indicate that voting behavior of individual congressmen is remarkably stable over time we find no evidence of economically significant last term effects on voting behavior nor are there important effects of legislative tenure on voting patterns the most significant deviations in voting behavior occur for congressmen who failed to win their reelection bid suggesting that sizable deviations from previous policy positions may result in swift retribution by constituents in the district