a dynamic tiebout theory of voluntary vs involuntary provision of public goods this paper considers a dynamic model of tiebout like migration between communities that utilize distinct allocation procedures for public goods at issue is whether voluntary or compulsory procedures are more likely to prevail over time we model infinitely lived individuals who make repeated sequential location decisions over one of two communities each community uses a distinct mechanism for allocating public goods the first is one in which contributions are given voluntarily by the citizenry of the community the second is a compulsory scheme by which individuals are taxed proportionately to wealth with the tax determined by a majority vote opportunities to accumulate wealth exist via accumulation of public capital the markov perfect equilibria of the dynamic game are studied our main result shows that when accumulated wealth converges to a steady state individuals locational choices eventually select the involuntary provision mechanism this holds despite the fact that unanimous location in the voluntary provision community may in many cases remain as a nash equilibrium of the static game each period we also describe conditions under which voluntary provision survives these conditions require that accumulation of capital fails to decrease wealth dispersion over time the results are shown to be consistent with findings relating inequality to school choice

transition towards a low carbon economy a computable general equilibrium analysis for poland in the transition to sustainable economic structures the european union assumes a leading role with its climate and energy package which sets ambitious greenhouse gas emission reduction targets by 2020 among eu member states poland with its heavy energy system reliance on coal is particularly worried on the pending trade offs between emission regulation and economic growth in our computable general equilibrium analysis of the eu climate and energy package we show that economic adjustment cost for poland hinge crucially on restrictions to where flexibility of emission abatement revenue recycling and technological options in the power system we conclude that more comprehensive flexibility provisions at the eu level and a diligent policy implementation at the national level could achieve the transition towards a low carbon economy at little cost thereby broadening societal support

sense and no n sense of energy security indicators energy security ranks high on the policy agenda of many countries to improve on energy security governments undertake regulatory measures for promoting renewable energy increasing energy efficiency or curbing carbon dioxide emissions the impacts of such measures on energy security are typically monitored by means of so called energy security indicators in this paper we show that the common use of wide spread energy security indicators falls short of providing a meaningful metric regulatory measures to improve on energy security trigger ambiguous effects across energy security indicators we conclude that a major pitfall of energy security indicators is the lack of a rigorous microeconomic foundation

estimating dynamics of us demand for major fossil fuels long run demand relationships among fossil fuels in the united states were investigated using annual data covering 1918 through 2013 due to the endogeneity problem among the variables of interest as indicated by the findings from the granger causality test weak exogeneity test and directed acyclic graphs the use of the seemingly unrelated regression sur method was deemed appropriate the sur model demonstrated that there was low level of substitutability among fossil fuels but the small magnitude of the estimated coefficient indicates that natural gas oil and coal are more properly classified as independent goods than as substitutes of each other within the us market income elasticities for all three fossil fuels indicate that they are normal goods several external shocks have significant impact on demand for each of the fossil fuels slightly lower explanatory power of oil demand equation may be explained with the fact that the model did not include us oil imports although the us economy has been dependent to some degree on imported oil

investor flows and the 2008 boom bust in oil prices this paper explores the impact of investor flows and financial market conditions on returns in crude oil futures markets i argue that informational frictions and the associated speculative activity may induce prices to drift away from fundamental values and may result in price booms and busts particular attention is given to the interplay between imperfect information about real economic activity including supply demand and inventory accumulation and speculative activity in oil markets furthermore i present new evidence that there were economically and statistically significant effects of investor flows on futures prices after controlling for returns in the united states and emerging economy stock markets a measure of the balance sheet flexibility of large financial institutions open interest the futures spot basis and lagged returns on oil futures the largest impacts on futures prices were from intermediate term growth rates of index positions and managed money spread positions moreover my findings suggest that these effects were through risk or informational channels distinct from changes in convenience yield finally the evidence suggests that hedge fund trading in spread positions in futures impacted the shape of term structure of oil futures prices this paper was accepted by wei xiong finance

who pays and who gains from fuel policies in brazil abstract brazil has pursued a mix of policy interventions in the fuel sector to achieve multiple objectives of economic and social development promoting biofuels and reducing dependence on oil we develop an economic framework to provide insight on the fuel policy choices in brazil and to analyze the trade offs they have engendered in the fuel and sugar sectors we also examine their distributional impacts on producers and consumers in the sugar oil and biofuel sectors and on government revenues additionally we undertake a normative analysis for the purpose of comparing the welfare and environmental impacts of existing policies with those justified by the goal of maximizing social welfare and addressing market failure the ex post analysis of the outcomes for different stakeholders in the fuel and sugar sectors provides insights on the likely political economic factors guiding policy choices we find that the status quo policies are likely to have been motivated by the objectives of increasing oil exports raising government revenue and promoting rural development through the sugarcane sector and have had a significant adverse effect on fuel and sugar consumers aggregate social welfare and greenhouse gas emissions in brazil

the median voter according to garp this paper adapts the generalized axiom of revealed preference garp empirical method to the public goods problem to test whether observed municipal public spending can be explained as if the city governments maximize the utility of the median income voter it applies the test procedure for medium size municipal governments in five midwest states the data are consistent with garp and reveal that the local governments in the sample behave as if they maximize median voter utility once we control for the state specific effects government management structure and population density the median voter hypothesis is the proposition that local governments behave as if they maximize the utility of the median income voter in the jurisdiction although an important tool in public economic analysis there has been no conclusive direct test of the maximization hypothesis to date revealed preference theory shows that any finite set of price and quantity observations satisfying the generalized axiom of revealed preference garp can be rationalized by the constrained maximization of an increasing continuous concave utility function afriat 1967 1973 varian 1982 this paper adapts the revealed preference method to the public goods problem in order to test municipal spending data for consistency under garp thereby providing the first direct test of whether or not the local governments behave as if they maximize median voter utility the median voter hypothesis represents a simple tool that is the most widely used characterization of local government behavior given its prominence in the literature it is not surprising that the hypothesis itself has become the subject of scrutiny the framework assumes direct or representative democracy without strategic behavior in which competition among politicians ensures that the public sector bureaucracy responds efficiently to voters desires public sector decision making reduces to an as if constrained maximization problem a simplified picture of the outcome of collective action still much of the empirical testing literature is motivated by concerns over whether the model is too simplistic nonetheless it can be argued that given its depiction as an as if outcome the median voter hypothesis should be judged not by its descriptive accuracy of the public sector decision process but instead by how well it explains observed local fiscal choices on this basis the existing empirical evidence although mixed reveals a surprising amount of indirect support for the framework one approach taken in the literature is to evaluate the median voter hypothesis by testing the predictive power of regression equations with median income and tax price terms for explaining state or local fiscal behavior in this line of the

how does increased corn ethanol production affect us natural gas prices abstract in recent years there has been a push to increase biofuel production in the united states the biofuel of choice so far has been ethanol produced from corn the effects of increased corn ethanol production on the consumer prices of food and energy continue to be studied and debated this study examines in particular the effects of increased corn ethanol production on us natural gas prices a structural model of the natural gas market is developed and estimated using two stage least squares a baseline projection for the period 2007 2018 is determined and two scenarios are simulated in the first scenario current biofuel policies including eisa mandates tariffs and tax credits are removed in the second scenario we hold ethanol production to the level required only for largely obligatory additive use the results indicate that the increased level of corn ethanol production occurring as a result of the current us biofuel policies may lead to natural gas prices that are as much as 0 25 higher on average than if no biofuel policies were in place a similar comparison between the baseline and second scenario indicates natural gas prices could be as much as 0 5 higher on average for the same period

environmental tax policy and intergenerational distribution abstract we study the effects of environmental taxation within the context of an overlapping generations model the quality of the environment is modelled as a durable consumption good introduction of the environmental tax harms old existing generations and benefits young existing generations as well as all future generations increasing the tax in a pareto improving manner is easier the higher the pre existing tax the reverse holds if tax policy is decided by majority rule a suitably designed bond policy can be used to redistribute the efficiency gains due to the internalisation of environmental externalities across the generations

time series analysis applied to construct us natural gas price functions for groups of states the study of natural gas markets took a considerably new direction after the liberalization of the natural gas markets during the early 1990s as a result several problems and research opportunities arose for those studying the natural gas supply chain particularly the marketing operations consequently various studies have been undertaken about the econometrics of natural gas several models have been developed and used for different purposes from descriptive analysis to practical applications such as price and consumption forecasting in this work we address the problem of finding a pooled regression formula relating the monthly figures of price and consumption volumes for each state of the united states during the last twenty years the model thus obtained is used as the basis for the development of two methods aimed at classifying the states into groups sharing a similar price consumption relationship a dendrogram application and an heuristic algorithm the details and further applications of these grouping techniques are discussed along with the ultimate purpose of using this pooled regression model to validate data employed in the stochastic optimization problem studied by the authors

micro estimates of public spending demand functions and tests of the tiebout and median voter hypotheses responses to questions given to a random sample of michigan households are used to estimate public spending demand functions while income and price elasticities are similar to those obtained from aggregate data positive income elasticities appear to arise because public services are distributed in a prorich manner a relatively small variance in spending demands among urban and suburban communities in metropolitan areas with substantial public service variety suggests that the tiebout mechanism works this interpretation is supported by the fact that actual spending conforms substantially to desired levels in urban areas but less so in rural areas with little public sector choice

does energy consumption respond to price shocks evidence from a regression discontinuity design this paper exploits unique features of a recently introduced tariff schedule for natural gas in buenos aires to estimate the short run impact of price shocks on residential energy utilization the schedule induces a nonlinear and non monotonic relationship between households accumulated consumption and unit prices thus generating exogenous price variation which is exploited in a regression discontinuity design the results reveal that a price increase causes a prompt and significant decline in gas consumption they also indicate that consumers respond more to recent past bills than to expected prices which argues against the assumption that consumers have perfect awareness of complex price schedules

are green hopes too rosy employment and welfare impacts of renewable energy promotion in view of pressing unemployment problems policy makers across all parties jump on the prospects of renewable energy promotion as a job creation engine which can boost economic well being our analytical model shows that initial labor market rigidities in theory provide some scope for such a double dividend however the practical outcome of renewable energy promotion might be sobering our computable general equilibrium analysis of subsidized electricity production from renewable energy sources res e in germany suggests that the prospects for employment and welfare gains are quite limited and hinge crucially on the level of the subsidy rate and the financing mechanism if res e subsidies are financed by labor taxes welfare and employment effects are strictly negative for a broad range of subsidy rates the use of an electricity tax to fund res e subsidies generates minor benefits for small subsidy rates but these benefits quickly turn into significant losses as the subsidy rate exceeds some threshold value

tiebout with politics capital tax competition and constitutional choices this paper examines how capital tax competition affects jurisdiction formation we describe a non cooperative locational model of public goods provision choices where the levels of taxation and the local public good varieties provided within jurisdictions are selected by majority voting and where equilibrium jurisdictions consist of consumers with similar tastes we show that interjurisdictional tax competition results in an enlargement of jurisdictional boundaries and even in the absence of intrajurisdictional transfers can raise welfare for all members of a jurisdiction

consumption path following a tax increase implications for the analysis of the welfare cost of taxation abstract the consumption path following a capital income tax increase is analyzed to demonstrate that short run increases in consumption dominate future declines in consumption for a considerable time it takes 25 years before a tax increase resutls in a loss of welfare

endogenous markups and the effects of income taxation theory and evidence from oecd countries abstract existing studies on the effects of fiscal policy under imperfect competition typically treat each firm s price cost markup as fixed this paper examines the implications of endogenising the markup in a simple model of income taxation under monopolistic competition it is demonstrated that an increase in income tax reduces the number of firms lessens competition among surviving firms and raises the optimal markups in the new steady state through this channel the effects of income taxation on the key macroeconomic variables as well as on consumer welfare are unambiguously enlarged the simple model prediction is largely supported by cross section regressions with data from oecd countries

modelling the price of oil this paper surveys the problem of modelling the determination of the price of crude oil it discusses the need to define the price used and its relation to other related prices such as the price of refined products the factors determining the demand for oil the supply of oil by opec and non opec countries and the behavior of stocks are discussed finally some forecasts are presented and general conclusions are drawn on the difficulties of forecasting this series copyright 1991 by oxford university press

short and long run elasticities in energy demand a cointegration approach abstract short and long run energy demand elasticities are estimated on danish annual data for 1948 1990 energy consumption the real price of energy and real gdp appear to be non stationary variables cointegration and error correction methods are therefore applied all estimated parameters have the expected signs and magnitudes and no evidence is found of a structural break in energy demand caused by the increases in real energy prices since 1973 74

index investment and the financialization of commodities the authors found that concurrent with the rapidly growing index investment in commodity markets since the early 2000s prices of non energy commodity futures in the united states have become increasingly correlated with oil prices this trend has been significantly more pronounced for commodities in two popular commodity indices this finding reflects the financialization of the commodity markets and helps explain the large increase in the price volatility of non energy commodities around 2008

short run and long run elasticities of import demand for crude oil in turkey abstract the aim of this study is to attempt to estimate the short run and the long run elasticities of demand for crude oil in turkey by the recent autoregressive distributed lag ardl bounds testing approach to cointegration as a developing country turkey meets its growing demand for oil principally by foreign suppliers thus the study focuses on modelling the demand for imported crude oil using annual data covering the period 1980 2005 the bounds test results reveal that a long run cointegration relationship exists between the crude oil import and the explanatory variables nominal price and income but not in the model that includes real price in domestic currency the long run parameters are estimated through a long run static solution of the estimated ardl model and then the short run dynamics are estimated by the error correction model the estimated models pass the diagnostic tests successfully the findings reveal that the income and price elasticities of import demand for crude oil are inelastic both in the short run and in the long run

an alternate test of the tiebout hypothesis this paper has presented an indirect test of the tiebout hypothesis that does not require explicit consideration of the interaction between the markets for housing and local public services the results suggest that at least in the case of elementary and secondary education when allowed to choose from a selection of jurisdictions individuals locate so as to minimize the allocative inefficiency that results from collective provision of local services

long term oil prices abstract in this paper we propose a model to estimate and simulate long term oil prices our model is based on properties of demand and supply for oil and it is able to reproduce historical real oil prices well we use the model to estimate and simulate future real oil price scenarios the results show that if we are not able to significantly increase demand elasticity the yearly real oil price change can reach 12 in the years following the peak production level without taking a scarcity rent into account until peak production level is reached the long term real oil price changes stemming from fundamental supply and demand changes are expected to be negative our simulation results based on an expected peak production year of 2020 and a scarcity rent of 3 suggest an expected real crude oil price of 169 bbl in 2040 for comparison the eia outlook predicts a real oil price of 141 bbl for the same year we also provide an on line appendix that allows the readers to change the assumptions underlying our analysis and see the results immediately

public capital and imperfect competition abstract in this paper we consider a macroeconomic model in which public capital is a productive input and there is monopolistic competition in the product market we analyze the effects of a permanent variation in public capital investment both in the short and in the long run finally we show that the optimal provision of public capital under imperfect competition is higher than that associated with the first best policy

speculation in the oil market the run up in oil prices since 2004 coincided with growing investment in commodity markets and increased price co movement among different commodities we assess whether speculation in the oil market played a role in driving this salient empirical pattern we identify oil shocks from a large dataset using a dynamic factor model this method is motivated by the fact that a small scale vector autoregression is not informationally sufficient to identify the shocks the main results are as follows i while global demand shocks account for the largest share of oil price fluctuations speculative shocks are the second most important driver ii the increase in oil prices over the last decade is mainly driven by the strength of global demand however speculation played a significant role in the oil price increase between 2004 and 2008 and its subsequent collapse iii the co movement between oil prices and the prices of other commodities is mainly explained by global demand shocks our results support the view that the recent oil price increase is mainly driven by the strength of global demand but that the financialization process of commodity markets also played a role

world oil market or mayhem the world oil market is regarded by many as a puzzle why are oil prices so volatile what is opec and what does opec do where are oil prices headed in the long run is peak oil a genuine concern why did oil prices spike in the summer of 2008 and what role did speculators play any attempt to answer these questions must be informed and disciplined by economics such is the purpose of this essay to illuminate recent developments in the world oil market from the perspective of economic theory

an alternative to steady state comparisons in perfect foresight models abstract this note examines a technique for the computation of the welfare impact of a pertubation of the steady state in a typical perfect foresight model the major innovation is the ability to analyze non stationary perturbations

a new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the business cycle abstract this paper introduces a general procedure for decomposition of non stationary time series into a permanent and transitory component allowing both components to be stochastic the permanent component is shown to be a random walk with drift and the transitory or cyclical component is a stationary process with mean zero the decomposition methodology which depends only on past data and therefore is computable in real time is applied to the problem of measuring and dating business cycles in the portwar u s economy we find that measured expansions and contractions are of roughly equivalent duration and that our dating of cyclical episodes tends to lead the traditional nber dating and to a lesser extent the growth cycle chronology of zarnowitz and boschan 1977

what drives volatility in natural gas prices abstract we examine the primary drivers of u s natural gas price volatility to do so we apply a structural heterogeneous autoregressive var shvar model accommodating structural breaks in both the coefficient and volatility to monthly time series data on natural gas supply demand and price between january 1978 and july 2018 we detect several structural changes in coefficients and shock volatility in the natural gas market our findings indicate that the response of natural gas prices differs significantly depending on the regime and type of shock in the natural gas market while demand shocks specific to the natural gas market are the primary drivers of natural gas price volatility structural supply shocks also play a significant role in explaining movements in natural gas prices our results suggest that failure to consider structural breaks in the coefficient and volatility may result in biased estimates and distorted impulse responses of the impact of shocks on natural gas price volatility

oil price stabilization and global welfare abstract oil price stabilization polices are adopted extensively in developing countries some argue that developed economies especially the us may gain from these policies through trade this paper studies this issue in a two country model with dollar currency pricing we find that the optimal level of oil price stabilization chosen by developing countries and its implications for global welfare depend critically on whether monetary policy can effectively respond to oil shocks in an environment without monetary shocks when optimal monetary policies are considered there is no role for oil price stabilization in developing countries however to make the oil price stabilization policy redundant optimal monetary policy is not necessary some non optimal endogenous monetary policies satisfying certain conditions can also make the developing countries choose zero oil price stabilization the results change when there are monetary shocks even with optimal monetary policies the developing countries will choose a positive level of oil price stabilization however due to dollar currency pricing the us actually loses from the stabilization policy our results are well supported by the quantitative analysis in a full fledged dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model

can deployment of renewable energy put downward pressure on natural gas prices abstract high and volatile natural gas prices have increasingly led to calls for investments in renewable energy one line of argument is that deployment of these resources may lead to reductions in the demand for and price of natural gas many recent us based modeling studies have demonstrated that this effect could provide significant consumer savings in this article we evaluate these studies and benchmark their findings against economic theory other modeling results and a limited empirical literature we find that many uncertainties remain regarding the absolute magnitude of this effect and that the reduction in natural gas prices may not represent an increase in aggregate economic wealth nonetheless we conclude that many of the studies of the impact of renewable energy on natural gas prices appear to have represented this effect within reason given current knowledge these studies specifically suggest that a 1 reduction in us natural gas demand could lead to long term average wellhead price reductions of 0 8 2 and that each megawatt hour of renewable energy may benefit natural gas consumers to the tune of at least 7 5 20

global economic activity and crude oil prices a cointegration analysis abstract this paper empirically investigates the cointegrating relationship between crude oil prices and global economic activity the kilian economic index is used as an indicator of global economic activity based on a supply demand framework and the cointegration theory we find that real futures prices of crude oil are cointegrated with the kilian economic index and a trade weighted us dollar index and crude oil prices are influenced significantly by fluctuations in the kilian economic index through both long run equilibrium conditions and short run impacts we also develop an empirically stable data coherent and single equation error correction model ecm which has sensible economic properties empirical results based on the ecm show that the adjustment implied by a permanent change in the kilian economic index is a relatively drawn out process

redistributive taxation in a simple perfect foresight model abstract we investigate the redistributive potential of capital taxation in an intertemporal maximizing model of capital formation first even unanticipated redistributive capital taxation is severely limited in its effectiveness since it depresses wages second under any convergent redistributive tax policy which maximizes a paretian social objective the capital income tax will converge to zero independent of the factor supply elasticities these results are independent of workers holdings of capital

the asymmetric return volatility relationship of commodity prices abstract there is a well documented asymmetric return volatility effect of equity returns that is negative shocks increase volatility by more than positive shocks this paper analyzes the return volatility relationship of commodity prices and finds a positive inverted asymmetric effect with a tendency to weaken and converge towards an equity like effect since the mid 2000s and particularly during the global financial crisis a comparison of the findings with equity prices also reveals a strengthening of the asymmetric effect in equity markets the change in the asymmetric volatility effect is consistent with the financialization of commodity markets and has strong portfolio implications

voting with ballots and feet existence of equilibrium in a local public good economy abstract this paper proves a general existence theorem for equilibrium in a local public good economy with free mobility by extending greenberg and shitovitz s j econ theory46 1988 223 236 approach each jurisdiction s collective choice rule is the d majority voting rule proposed by greenberg econometrica47 1979 627 636 spillover effects of local public goods externalities due to the population distribution and snob effects are all allowed we need transitivity and completeness of preferences these assumptions are not used by greenberg and shitovitz because they do not permit consumers to move free mobility of consumers causes disconnections in consumption sets a problem addressed here journal of economic literatureclassification numbers c62 d72 h72 r13

determinants of the crude oil futures curve inventory consumption and volatility abstract since 2008 the wti oil futures curve has been positively sloped for extended periods we test whether changes in inventory alone can explain this atypically long contango to do this we estimate monthly vars of the cme wti oil futures spread and oecd and u s inventory in line with standard theory and add petroleum consumption and implied volatility to the vector of endogenous variables when we model the futures spread as one continuous series results confirm two way causation between inventory and the futures curve as predicted by the theory of storage however when we separate negative and positive futures spreads we find that two way causation between the futures spread and u s inventory breaks down shocks to oecd petroleum consumption cause more negative spreads and shocks to u s consumption cause more positive spreads in addition to inventory driven changes and increases in volatility directly raise positive spreads these new causal channels have become significant since 2008 and can be related to higher inventory inelastic supply of oil and uncertainty about global economic conditions

a dynamic model of capital and arms accumulation how does competitive arms accumulation affect investment and capital accumulation in a dynamic optimization framework including both investment and military spending we find that when the utility function is separable between consumption and the weapon stocks an unanticipated rise in current military threat reduces current investment and an anticipated rise in future military threat stimulates current investment but when the utility function is nonseparable between consumption and the weapon stocks a current military threat may not decrease the short run investment in the long run capital accumulation is independent of the military conflicts among countries regardless of the form of the utility function

population ageing and pension reform in a small open economy with non traded goods in this paper we study the implications of population ageing in an economy with a sizeable non traded goods sector to this effect a highly stylized micro founded macro model is constructed in which the age structure of the population plays a non trivial role the model distinguishes separate birth and death probabilities thus allowing for net population change allows for age dependent labour productivity thus mimicing life cycle saving and includes a rudimentary pension system thus allowing for intergenerational redistribution the model is used to analytically study demographic and pension shocks

us climate policy a critical assessment of intensity standards intensity standards have gained substantial momentum as a regulatory instrument in us climate policy energy intensive and trade exposed industries are traditionally opposed to initiatives for domestic carbon pricing as they are particularly vulnerable to competitiveness losses and refer to counterproductive emission leakage in a unilateral climate policy context this has led to policy proposals where intensity standards on energy and carbon might at least in part substitute for explicit carbon pricing via taxes or emission allowances in this paper we study the economic efficiency properties of intensity standards as an instrument of unilateral climate policy we first develop a theoretical partial equilibrium framework and show that standards can have an ambiguous effect on carbon leakage we then use an applied computable general equilibrium model of the global economy to gain quantitative insights into the effects of intensity standards for the case of the us our numerical results show that intensity standards may rather increase than decrease carbon leakage moreover standards can lead to considerable welfare losses compared to uniform emission taxing the tradability of standards across industries is a mechanism that can reduce these negative effects

validating energy oriented cge models although cge models have received heavy usage they are often criticized as being insufficiently validated key parameters are often not econometrically estimated and the performance of the model as a whole is rarely checked against historical outcomes as a consequence questions frequently arise as to how much faith one can put in cge results in this paper we employ a novel approach to the validation of a widely utilized global cge model gtap e by comparing the variance of model generated petroleum price distributions driven by historical demand and supply shocks to the model with observed five year moving average price distributions we conclude that energy demand in gtap e is far too price elastic over this time frame after incorporating the latest econometric estimates of energy demand and supply elasticities we revisit the validation question and find the model to perform more satisfactorily as a further check we compare a deterministic global general equilibrium simulation based on historical realizations over the 2001 2006 period during which petroleum prices rose sharply along with growing global energy demands as anticipated by the stochastic simulations the revised model parameters perform much better than the original gtap e parameters in this global general equilibrium context

economic influences on the structure of local government in u s metropolitan areas abstract there is a large degree of variation in the number of general purpose local governments and school districts per square mile and per person among united states metropolitan areas using data from 1982 this paper provides an empirical test of whether economic factors especially variation in demand for local government services partly account for these differences the empirical findings show that after controlling for political historic and institutional factors variations in the characteristics that affect demand for local government services do influence the number of local governments this result is consistent with the hypothesis first put forth by tiebout

import demand of crude oil and economic growth evidence from india abstract this study establishes a long run equilibrium relationship among quantity of crude oil import income and price of the imported crude in india for the time span 1970 1971 to 2005 2006 using autoregressive distributed lag ardl bounds testing approach of cointegration empirical results show that the long term income elasticity of imported crude in india is 1 97 and there exists a unidirectional long run causality running from economic growth to crude oil import so reduction of crude oil import will not affect the future economic growth in india in the long run india should take various energy efficiency and demand side management measures in transport sector along with other measures like expanding and strengthening indigenous resource base substituting imported fuels by domestic fuels and de controlling the price of petroleum products to reduce its import dependence

embodied carbon tariffs in a world where the prospects of a global agreement to control greenhouse gas emissions are bleak the idea of using trade policy as an implicit regulation of foreign emission sources has gained many supporters in countries contemplating unilateral climate policies embodied carbon tariffs tax the direct and indirect carbon emissions embodied in imported goods the appeal seems obvious as oecd countries are on average large net importers of embodied emissions from non oecd countries carbon tariffs could substantially extend the reach of oecd climate policies we investigate this claim by simulating the effects of embodied carbon tariffs with a computable general equilibrium model of global trade and energy use we find that embodied carbon tariffs do effectively reduce carbon leakage however the scope for improvements in the global cost effectiveness of unilateral climate policy is limited the main welfare effect of the tariffs is to shift the burden of oecd climate policy to the developing world

cross country differences in the effects of oil shocks abstract we compare the macroeconomic consequences of several types of oil shocks across a set of industrialized countries that are structurally very diverse with respect to the role of oil and other forms of energy in the economy the results crucially depend on the underlying source of the oil price shift when a rise in oil prices is caused by increased global economic activity or a rise in oil specific demand almost all countries experience respectively a temporary increase and transitory decline of real gdp the role of oil and other forms of energy cannot explain the differences in the effects of both shocks across countries in contrast this role is very important to explain asymmetries in the effects of exogenous oil supply shocks whereas net oil and energy importing countries typically face a permanent fall in economic activity the impact is insignificant or even positive in net energy exporting countries in addition countries that improved their net energy position the most over time became less vulnerable to oil supply shocks relative to other countries

the analytics of technology news shocks abstract this paper constructs several models in which unlike the standard neoclassical growth model positive news about future technology generates an increase in current consumption hours and investment these models are said to exhibit procyclical news shocks we find that all models that exhibit procyclical news shocks in our paper have two commonalities there are mechanisms to ensure that i consumption does not crowd out investment or vice versa ii the benefit of forgoing leisure in response to news shocks outweighs the cost among the models we consider we believe one model holds the greatest potential for explaining procyclical news shocks its critical assumption is that news of the future technology also illuminates the nature of this technology this illumination in turn permits economic actors to invest in capital that is forward compatible i e adapted to the new technology on the technical side our paper reintroduces the laplace transform as a tool for studying dynamic economies analytically using laplace transforms we are able to study and prove results about the full dynamics of the model in response to news shocks

a classroom exercise voting by ballots and feet this classroom experiment illustrates the efficiency enhancing property of a tiebout system in which local public goods decisions are determined by a political process students are given playing cards that induce diverse preferences for expenditures on alternative public goods and are initially assigned to specific communities then those in each community vote on the type and level of public goods provision which determine the tax cost after the provision and tax results are announced students are free to move to a location where the prior results are more consistent with their preferences this process continues for several rounds with a new vote taken at each location after moves have been made the exercise demonstrates that the combination of voting with feet and ballots tends to increase the total net benefit for all communities the voting on provision levels is structured to facilitate a discussion of the median voter theorem

an analysis of the global oil market using svarma models the paper analyses the importance of supply versus demand shocks on the global oil market from 1974 to 2017 using a parsimonious structural vector autoregressive moving average svarma model the superior out of sample forecasting performance of the reduced form varma compared to var alternatives advocates the suitability of this framework we specifically account for the changes in the oil market over three distinctive sub periods pre moderation great moderation and post moderation periods to provide a means of identifying the changing nature of shock transmission mechanism across times the findings shed some light on the effects of supply versus demand related oil shocks under different economic environment oil supply shocks explain large fraction of the movements in the global oil market in the pre and post moderation periods i e during the slower economic growth periods the importance of global activity shock on oil price movements is obvious during the 2003 2008 boom period the oil specific shock has an interesting transmission path on the global economic activity where the global activity responded positively and negatively during the global economic expansion and contraction respectively emphasising the precautionary nature of the shock

measurement of natural and cyclical excess capacity in china s coal industry abstract overcapacity is a persistent problem in china s economy previous de capacity measures based on the quantity of the total excess capacity have failed to prevent the recurrence of increasingly worse overcapacity to solve this problem we attempt to quantitatively analyze china s excess coal capacity by dividing it into the long term natural excess capacity and short term cyclical excess capacity using the state space model and kalman filter algorithm the results show that china s excess coal capacity can indeed be divided into natural excess capacity and cyclical excess capacity and they have different causes fluctuations roles and effects on the price in 1995 2001 cyclical excess capacity was the main factor of overcapacity but in 2002 2015 natural excess capacity played a key role cyclical excess capacity has a negative effect on the price whereas natural excess capacity has little effect on it therefore policy makers should focus on the causes the fluctuations and the roles of natural excess and cyclical excess in addition to those of the total excess capacity they should also consider the relationship between the capacity and price based on the different effects of the natural excess capacity and cyclical excess capacity on the price

fiscal policy monopolistic competition and finite lives abstract this paper studies the short run transitional and long run output effects of permanent and temporary shocks in public consumption under various financing methods to this end a dynamic macroeconomic model for a closed economy is developed which features a perfectly competitive final goods sector and a monopolistically competitive intermediate goods sector finitely lived households consume final goods supply labor and save part of their income amongst the findings for a permanent rise in public consumption are i monopolistic competition increases the absolute value of the balanced budget output multiplier ii positive long run output multipliers are obtained only if the generational turnover effect is dominated by the intertemporal labor supply effect iii short run output multipliers under lump sum tax financing are smaller than long run output multipliers if labor supply is elastic and iv bond financing reduces the size of long run output multipliers as compared to lump sum tax financing and may give rise to non monotonic adjustment paths if labor supply is sufficiently elastic and the speed of adjustment of lump sum taxes is not too high temporary bond financed fiscal shocks are shown to yield i permanent effects on output and ii negative long run output multipliers

an econometrics view of worldwide fossil fuel consumption and the role of us crude oil coal and gas known as fossil fuels play a crucial role in the global economy this paper proposes new econometrics modelling to demonstrate the trend of fossil fuels consumption the main variables affecting consumption trends are world reserves the price of fossil fuels us production and us net imports all variables have been analysed individually for more than half a century the research found that while the consumption of fossil fuels worldwide has increased trends in the us production and net imports have been dependent on the type of fossil fuels most of the us coal and gas production has been for domestic use which is why it does not have a strong influence on worldwide fossil fuel prices moreover the reserves of fossil fuels have not shown any diminution during the last couple of decades and predictions that they were about to run out are not substantiated the nominal and real price of fossil fuels was found to change depending on the type finally estimates of three econometric models for the consumption of fossil fuels from 1949 to 2006 are presented which identify the effects of significant variables

the impact of the shale gas revolution on the u s and japanese natural gas markets we investigated whether the increase in the us shale gas production changed the structures of the us and japanese natural gas markets using market data for the period 2002 5 2012 5 our analysis consists of a structural break test and market integration analysis the bai and perron structural break test detected a break point of natural gas prices and consumption in 2005 as well as other external shocks hurricane katrina and the lehman shock that are irrelevant to shale gas development we eliminated the impact of these shocks by separating the data set using the breaks identified in our analysis we found the breaks skewed the estimation a market linkage existed between the us and japanese markets in the original data set while it did not in the separated data the vector autoregressive var model also indicated a significant change before and after the break point the us market had a one side influence on the japanese market before 2005 but the influence disappeared after 2005 our results implied that the shale gas revolution triggered by the increase in shale gas production in 2005 caused the change in the relationship between the us and japanese natural gas markets

optimal oil production and the world supply of oil abstract we study the optimal oil extraction strategy and the value of an oil field using a multiple real option approach the numerical method is flexible enough to solve a model with several state variables to discuss the effect of risk aversion and to take into account uncertainty in the size of reserves optimal extraction in the baseline model is found to be volatile if the oil producer is risk averse production is more stable but spare capacity is much higher than what is typically observed we show that decisions are very sensitive to expectations on the equilibrium oil price using a mean reverting model of the oil price where the equilibrium price is also a random variable oil production was cut during the 2008 2009 crisis and we find that the cut in production was larger for opec members for countries facing a lower discount rate and for countries whose governments finances are less dependent on oil revenues however the net present value of a country s oil reserves would be increased significantly by 100 in the most extreme case if production was cut completely when prices fall below the country s threshold price if several producers were to adopt such strategies world oil prices would be higher but more stable

clustering in crude oil prices and the target pricing zone hypothesis abstract this paper studies the target pricing zone tpz hypothesis for crude oil by examining price clustering in the dollar digit it is hypothesized that price clustering occurs within an established tpz if opec is able to defend the upper and lower bounds through output changes the results show that prices strongly cluster around the dollar digit value of 9 within the tpz sub periods but not outside the sub periods furthermore the degree of clustering declines when production capacity utilization is high and when production significantly exceeds quotas consistent with opec s inability to defend the zone nine centered clustering also results in lower contemporaneous and next day volatility these results support the target pricing zone hypothesis of crude oil

optimal emission pricing in the presence of international spillovers decomposing leakage and terms of trade motives abstract carbon leakage provides an efficiency argument for differentiated emission prices in favor of emission intensive and trade exposed sectors under unilateral climate policy however differential emission pricing can be used as a beggar thy neighbor policy to exploit terms of trade adopting an optimal tax framework we propose a method to decompose the leakage and terms of trade motives for emission price differentiation we employ our method for the quantitative impact assessment of unilateral climate policy based on empirical data we find that the leakage motive yields only small efficiency gains compared to uniform emission pricing likewise the terms of trade motive has rather limited potential for strategic burden shifting we conclude that in many cases the simple first best rule of uniform emission pricing remains a practical guideline for unilateral climate policy design

does energy consumption respond to price shocks evidence from a regression discontinuity design does energy consumption respond to price shocks this paper exploits unique features of a recently introduced tariff schedule for natural gas in buenos aires to estimate the short run impact of price shocks on residential energy utilization the schedule induces a non linear and non monotonic relationship between households accumulated consumption and unit prices thus generating an exogenous source of variation in perceived prices which is exploited in a regression discontinuity design the estimates reveal that a price increase in the utility bill received by consumers causes a substantial and prompt decline in gas consumption hence they suggest that policy interventions via the price mechanism such as price caps and subsidies are powerful instruments to influence residential energy utilization patterns even within a short time span

food energy and environment is bioenergy the missing link abstract we study price linkages between the food energy and bioenergy markets a vertically integrated multi input multi output market model allows us to derive testable hypothesis which we test by applying time series analytical mechanisms to nine major traded food commodity prices along with one weighted average world crude oil price the data consists of 939 weekly observations from january 1993 to december 2010 the empirical findings confirm the theoretical hypothesis that the prices for crude oil and food commodities are interdependent a usd 1 barrel increase in oil prices and food commodity prices increase by between usd 0 09 tonne and usd 1 65 tonne

analysing gasoline demand elasticities a survey this paper is a survey of studies on gasoline demand although there are very many dxerent studies in this eld which sometimes appear to arrive at contradictory results we find that with proper stratification of studies by model and data type much of the contict turns to consensus in this survey we classtfy studies by data type and by ten d erent categories of model and with the exception of estimates on seasonal data which tend to be unstable and of certain inappropriate model formulations we find a fair degree of agreement concerning average short run and even long run income and price elasticities

oil prices speculation and fundamentals interpreting causal relations among spot and futures prices abstract a consensus that the world oil market is unified begs the question where do innovations in oil prices enter the market here we investigate where changes in the price of crude oil originate and how they spread by examining causal relationships among prices for crude oils from north america europe africa and the middle east on both spot and futures markets results indicate that innovations first appear in spot prices for dubai fateh and spread to other spot and futures prices while other innovations first appear in the far month contract for west texas intermediate and spread to other exchanges and contracts links between spot and futures markets are relatively weak and this may have allowed the long run relationship between spot and future prices to change after september 2004 together these results suggest that market fundamentals initiated a long term increase in oil prices that was exacerbated by speculators who recognized an increase in the probability that oil prices would rise over time

effects of us biofuel policies on us and world petroleum product markets with consequences for greenhouse gas emissions abstract us biofuel policy includes greenhouse gas reduction targets regulators do not address the potential that biofuel policy can have indirect impacts on greenhouse gases through its impacts on petroleum product markets and scientific research only partially addresses this question we use economic models of us biofuel and agricultural markets and us and world petroleum and petroleum product markets to show that discontinuing biofuel tax credits and ethanol tariff lower biofuel use could lead to increased us petroleum product use and a reduction in petroleum product use in other parts of the world the net effect is lower greenhouse gas emissions under certain assumptions we show that biofuel use mandate elimination can have positive or negative impacts on greenhouse gas emissions the magnitude and the direction of effects depend on how us biofuel trade affects biofuel in other countries with different emissions context that determines how important use mandates are in the first place who pays mandate costs and the price responsiveness of global petroleum supplies and uses however our results show that counter intuitive effects are possible and discourage broad conclusions about the greenhouse gas impacts of removing these elements of us biofuel policy

are biofuels the culprit opec food and fuel the food commodity price boom of 2003 2008 was the most notable in the past several decades having a substantial impact on global economic activity it affected developing nations by impacting real output the balance of payments government budgetary positions and most important the well being of the very poor high commodity prices also affected developed countries by transmitting business cycle disturbances and creating inflationary pressures several recent studies tried to identify and quantify the factors that caused the food commodity price boom of 2003 2008 see for instance isabel vansteenkiste 2009 these studies suggest that one key factor is growth in demand which since the 1980s has outpaced growth in supply other studies argued that biofuel is the culprit since it increases demand for staple crops see for instance donald mitchell 2008 all these studies however assumed competitive markets and did not consider the impact of biofuel on energy costs to farmers moreover they ignored the organization of petroleum exporting countries opec these studies leave us perplexed regarding the true impact of biofuel on food commodity prices was it or was it not an important contributor to the recent food commodity boom we believe that to answer this question the interactions between energy and food must be modeled and opec introduced and the impact of biofuels compared with other factors that are argued by the literature to be important this paper aims to analyze the multiple contributions of energy and biofuels to the increase are biofuels the culprit opec food and fuel

opec and demand response to crude oil prices abstract this paper investigates demand response to crude oil price movements before and after the recent global financial and economic crisis it employs several market power indices to structurally estimate price elasticities a newly developed market power index for crude oil markets is implemented in this approach opec is the central player and acts as a dominant producer in the global oil market we quantify how a change in market structure such as changes in marginal cost of production would contribute to market power exercise of opec and have an ultimate impact on price elasticity of demand for oil our price elasticity predictions fall in a range reported in the literature however estimates for pre crisis deviate from the post crisis ones in fact demand response to crude oil prices has almost doubled during the crisis this severe change in price response can be associated with record price levels caused by supply shortages and surge in alternative renewable energy resources the key advantages of this methodology over the existing literature are that it is simple to use and estimates price elasticity using a competition framework without specifying demand supply function s and utilizes commonly observable market variables that can be applied to any admissible data frequency

a critique of tiebout s theory of local public expenditures the last section of this paper presents a rigorous version of tiebout s theory of local public goods it is shown that equilibria exist and are pareto optimal this rigorous theory follows closely the more rigorous part of tiebout s work this rigorous theory makes a number of very special assumptions which make local public goods essentially private the body of this paper presents a series of examples which show that if one tries to generalize the rigorous version of tiebout s theory in a number of interesting directions then equilibria may no longer exist or may not be pareto optimal the conclusion is that tiebout s idea does not lead to a satisfactory general theory of local public goods the goal of this paper is to point out that tiebout s notion of equilibrium with local governments does not have the nice properties of general competitive equilibrium except under very restrictive assumptions tiebout 39 suggested that there are competitive forces which tend to make local governments allocate resources in a pareto optimal fashion consumers choose to live in those towns with the mix of taxes and public goods they prefer local governments choose this mix so as to attract inhabitants this idea may seem intriguing for it suggests that the invisible hand solves an important part of samuelson s perplexing public goods problem 32 tiebout in fact makes an argument which is nearly rigorous i give a rigorous version of his argument at the end of the paper however in this rigorous version so many restrictive assumptions are made that public goods become essentially private in the body of the paper i give a series of examples with which i try to convince the reader that one is forced to adopt tiebout s restrictive assumptions the idea is that if one changes any of his assumptions then either equilibria may not exist or may not be pareto optimal my examples are presented in the context of a general class of tiebout models i consider several subclasses one of which is the special case considered by tiebout in each of the subclasses except that considered by tiebout i give a counterexample either to the existence of equilibrium or to its pareto optimality the subclasses are so chosen that the difficulties they reveal would be shared by any reasonable tiebout model which differed from his special case i believe that my examples controvert tiebout s suggestion 39 last paragraph that his theory compares favorably with competitive equilibrium theory most of the examples in this paper have already appeared in the literature i cite related work as i go along what is new here is that i assemble the examples in a unified argument

the economic effects of energy price shocks large fluctuations in energy prices have been a distinguishing characteristic of the u s economy since the 1970s turmoil in the middle east rising energy prices in the u s and evidence of global warming recently have reignited interest in the link between energy prices and economic performance this paper addresses a number of the key issues in this debate what are energy price shocks and where do they come from how responsive is energy demand to changes in energy prices how do consumers expenditure patterns evolve in response to energy price shocks how do energy price shocks affect u s real output inflation and stock prices why do energy price increases seem to cause recessions but energy price decreases do not seem to cause expansions why has there been a surge in the price of oil in recent years why has this new energy price shock not caused a recession so far have the effects of energy price shocks waned since the 1980s and if so why as the paper demonstrates it is critical to account for the endogeneity of energy prices and to differentiate between the effects of demand and supply shocks in energy markets when answering these questions

black gold fool s gold speculation in the oil futures market this paper addresses the question of whether the oil price spike of 2003 2008 was a bubble we document and discuss what is known about the level of speculation in the paper oil market we then analyze the dynamics of the term structure of futures prices both during the earlier period of 1985 2002 and during the spike the dynamics of the term structure changed in important ways during this latter period and we explain how this may have contributed to generating a bubble we also explain how this answers the puzzle of the lack of accumulating above ground inventories finally we discuss the implications for regulatory reform of the paper oil markets

environmental abatement and intergenerational distribution this paper employs an overlapping generations model to explore the impact of public abatement on private investment and the intergenerational distribution of welfare whereas public abatement benefits old generations in terms of non environmental welfare future generations gain most in terms of environmental welfare the overall benefits tend to be smallest for generations born at the time of the unanticipated policy shock public debt policy however can be employed to ensure that welfare gains are distributed more equally across the various generations such a policy implies that natural capital crowds out man made capital

understanding recent oil price dynamics a novel empirical approach crude oil is a major driver of the global economy and its price dynamics are a key indicator for producers consumers and investors the increasing volatility of crude oil prices in the last decade has encouraged many researchers to model its dynamics recent studies have tried to explain this dynamics by taking into account the role of various market participants many of whom have increasingly used crude oil for portfolio diversification we propose a modified supply demand framework which assumes that the real price of crude oil is affected not only by fundamental shocks but also by financial shocks we assess the role of what we define as the financial shock component when describing the dynamics of the real crude oil price and endeavor to measure a possible equilibrium relationship between standard supply demand variables and our financial shock component using a dynamic ordinary least squares dols approach and an ecm framework we are able to empirically assess the significant role of hedging pressure on the real price of oil and find evidence that the impact of the hedging pressure is not only affecting quick reverting short term deviations but also the structural long run equilibrium of the oil price

the productivity slowdown and the savings shortfall a challenge to the permanent income hypothesis i introduction the permanent income hypothesis has been extensively tested over the years most of these tests reject the permanent income hypothesis at conventional significance levels but the implied deviations are small in economic terms in this paper i argue that the savings shortfall that followed the post 1973 productivity slowdown constitutes a large deviation from the permanent income hypothesis according to the permanent income hypothesis current consumption depends upon preferences interest rates and expected future income in the united states the productivity growth rate sharply declined after 1973 and economic agents forecasted that the lower growth rate would persist the permanent income hypothesis generally predicts that a productivity slowdown by lowering future expected income will stimulate saving the slower growth rate reduces the ratio of permanent income to current income and thereby reduces the ratio of consumption to current income unless the intertemporal elasticity of substitution is high however the u s national saving rate instead fell to a postwar low after the productivity slowdown the permanent income hypothesis therefore appears to be inconsistent with recent economic experience carroll and summers 1991 327 328 briefly noted that these events pose a challenge to the permanent income hypothesis in this paper i extend their analysis along four dimensions first i calculate the savings response predicted by the permanent income hypothesis in an economy with declining returns to capital abandoning their assumption of a fixed rate of return second i consider the case in which consumers only gradually recognize the extent and duration of the slowdown third i examine published forecasts to demonstrate that the slowdown caused a fall in expected not merely realized growth rates which is necessary for the predicted savings increase fourth i consider the effects of other variables on saving during this period the paper is organized as follows in section ii i examine the permanent income hypothesis s prediction of the savings response to a productivity slowdown by solving a linearized infinite horizon specification of the permanent income hypothesis in a closed economy with concave production technology unless the intertemporal elasticity of substitution is high the permanent income hypothesis predicts rapid capital accumulation in response to the slowdown in section iii i document the post 1973 decline in productivity growth the downward revision in economic forecasts and the decline in national saving and capital accumulation i argue that other recent economic events cannot explain the saving decline and discuss the implications of these events for the permanent income hypothesis i briefly conclude in section iv ii effects of a productivity slowdown under the permanent income hypothesis in this section i show that the permanent income hypothesis predicts that a productivity slowdown increases saving unless the intertemporal elasticity of substitution is high specification of the permanent income hypothesis i use the model of ramsey 1928 and blanchard and fischer 1989 38 47 there is one good which can be consumed or costlessly transformed into capital labor supply is exogenous and factors are paid their marginal products the economy is closed relaxing this assumption increases the predicted savings effects of a slowdown the production function for gross output y is cobb douglas mathematical expression omitted where k is the capital stock z is the level of productivity l is labor supply and alpha is a constant between zero and one i refer to lz as the amount of effective labor gross output grows at rate 2 d y sub t dt y sub t alpha g sub t alpha n sub t 1 alpha d k sub t dt k sub t where g

tiebout bias and the demand for local public schooling institute of university of ii business and california economic research berkeley center for real estate and urban economics working paper series working paper 86 109 tiebout bias and the demand for local public schooling by daniel l rubinfeld perry shipiro judith roberts these papers are preliminary in nature th urpose 39 to stimulate 39 ussion comment therefore they are not t cited or quoted 39 ny p ation wit express permissio the author graduate school of business administration

household location and tiebout do families sort according to preferences for locational amenities abstract if households sort efficiently across locations then at a given location families receive the same marginal benefit from the locational amenities we test for such sorting by imposing cross equation restrictions on hedonic regressions that difference away location versus house specific effects estimates are obtained using a unique subset of the american housing survey in which adjacent housing units are grouped together and observed in both 1985 and 1989 rejection of the cross equation restrictions unambiguously implies an inefficient sorting of households in contrast the data support the cross equation restrictions which is a necessary but not sufficient condition for efficient sorting

the nature of oil shocks and the global economy abstract this paper identifies the main driving force behind oil price shocks in 1970 2006 by applying a simple identification strategy of supply driven and demand driven price shocks the identification hypothesis states that supply driven oil price shocks have a negative impact on the macroeconomic activity of countries which are net consumers of oil while demand driven oil price shocks do not have negative effects in order to identify global demand driven shocks a weighted aggregate gdp series of countries which are net consumers of oil is constructed over 1970 2006 the key result is that the main driving force behind oil price shocks has changed from supply driven shocks in 1970 1992 to demand driven shocks in 1992 2006

tiebout economies with differential genetic types and endogenously chosen crowding characteristics abstract we consider a tiebout economy with differential crowding and public projects in which agents are distinguished by their tastes and genetic endowments agents choose which crowding characteristic for example a skill they wish to express and this affects their value to other members of their jurisdiction club firm etc an agent s choice is influenced both by his genetic endowment which affects his cost of acquiring crowding characteristics and by his preferences over which crowding characteristic he expresses we show that if small groups are strictly effective the core is equivalent to the set of anonymous competitive equilibrium outcomes but that the core generally contains taste homogeneous jurisdictions journal of economic literature classification numbers h41 h72

redistributive taxation in a simple life cycle model an overlapping generations model with rich and poor life cycle planners is developed positive aspects of redistributive capital and labor taxation are then analyzed the conditions required for feldstein s result that the long run capital labor ratio is invariant to wage taxations are discussed the utility frontier is shown to generally have a slope with an absolute value different from one in the neighborhood of a no tax equilibrium labor income is clearly a more efficient base for long run redistribution only if the economy is dynamically inefficient and the rich household benefits from an increase in the gross interest rate even in this case the labor income base may not be considered more desirable when transitional effects are considered copyright 1989 by the london school of economics and political science

world crude oil and natural gas a demand and supply model abstract this paper examines world markets for crude oil and natural gas over the period 1918 1999 it analyzes the time series properties of output and prices and estimates demand and supply elasticities during 1918 1973 and 1973 1999 oil and gas prices were stable during the first period they became volatile afterwards reflecting deep changes in the market structure following the oil shock in 1973 demand price elasticities were too low however demand income elasticities were high supply price elasticities were also too low the elasticity estimates help to explain the market power of the oil producers and price volatility in response to shocks and corroborate elasticity estimates in energy studies

public investment and intergenerational distribution abstract we study the effects of public investment in a dynamic overlapping generations model of a small open economy boosting public investment stimulates private capital formation output and wages in the long run the impact effects depend critically on whether public capital is modelled as a stock or as a flow the welfare benefits are unevenly distributed across generations because capital ownership rises with age and wages rise only gradually under the stock interpretation a suitable egalitarian bond policy ensures that everybody gains to the same extent a simple modified golden rule for public investment is derived

dynamic analysis of an endogenous growth model with public capital this paper develops an endogenous growth model with productive public capital along with private capital in a spirit similar to that of r j barro 1990 since the authors model includes two stock variables it has transitional dynamics unlike most of the previous studies on endogenous growth including barro s where concerns are restricted to the steady state analysis first they show that the transitional path is unique and stable second the character of the transitional path is explored third the authors show that the optimal tax rate is smaller than the rate that maximizes the national growth rate with a log linear utility function copyright 1993 by the editors of the scandinavian journal of economics

ageing migration and endogenous public pensions abstract this paper analyses migration behaviour of mobile workers in reaction to population ageing we show that the conventional wisdom that a decrease in fertility will lead to a rise in wages and thus to an inflow of immigrants that mitigates the adverse effects of ageing on public pensions may not hold if labour is heterogeneous moreover we demonstrate that if public pensions are endogenous i e if ageing leads the elderly to successfully lobby for higher taxes it may take several generations before a steady state is reached and the initial migration flow may be opposite to the steady state migration