bank acquisitions and ownership structure theory and evidence abstract in this paper we both theoretically and empirically consider the joint nature of two ownermanager conflict resolution mechanisms insider shareholdings and shareholder concentration we find evidence of a significant entrenchment effect for high low firms moreover bidder returns are found to be positive for high high firms only we utilize a switching of regression regimes model to solve for critical values of and that subdivide the universe of acquiring firms into separate and distinct ownership structure regimes i e that define high vs low levels of or

learning to believe in sunspots a number of authors have shown that competitive economies may possess sunspot equilibria that is rational expectations equilibria in which purely extrinsic uncertainty affects equilibrium prices and allocations 2 such results demonstrate that it does not require a lack of faith in the rationality of market participants to believe that competitive markets may be subject to purely speculative fluctuations driven solely by expectations 3 the mere existence of sunspot equilibria as solutions to a system of marketclearing conditions however might not be judged sufficient to indicate that competitive markets with rational participants could ever be subject to speculative instability the sunspot equilibria represent states of affairs in which agents act differently in the case of different realizations of the sunspot variable and it is rational for each agent to do so but it might be thought unlikely that the beliefs of all the participants in the market could ever come to be coordinated so as to bring about an equilibrium of that kind it is rational to believe that sunspots convey information about future states of affairs once the economy is in a sunspot equilibrium but why would rational agents ever begin to believe in such a thing so as to create the conditions under which the belief is rational in order to address such a question one must go beyond the mere statement of the conditions for equilibrium and discussion of what states of affairs satisfy them one must specify an explicit dynamic process according to which the beliefs of agents adjust when out of equilibrium any exercise of this kind is necessarily unsatisfactory as there is no univocal meaning for the postulate of rational behavior outside of an equilibrium it may well be the case that

some empirical evidence on the effects of shocks to monetary policy on exchange rates this paper investigates the effects of shocks to u s monetary policy on exchange rates we consider three measures of these shocks orthogonalized shocks to the federal funds rate orthogonalized shocks to the ratio of nonborrowed to total reserves and changes in the romer and romer index of monetary policy in sharp contrast to the literature we find substantial evidence of a link between monetary policy and exchange rates specifically according to our results a contractionary shock to u s monetary policy leads to i persistent significant appreciations in u s nominal and real exchange rates and ii significant persistent deviations from uncovered interest rate parity in favor of u s interest rates

multiple solution indeterminacies in monetary policy analysis abstract a sizeable fraction of recent research on monetary policy has been concerned with issues relating to analytical indeterminacies i e multiple solutions in rational expectations re models most of the literature features sophisticated re analysis conducted within dynamic models that reflect optimizing behavior by individual agents and incorporate taylor style policy rules a few papers have suggested that some of the particular indeterminacy arguments are misleading or irrelevant for the most part however there has been little dissent from the position that these indeterminacies present a genuine problem for monetary policy makers the purpose of the present paper by contrast is to argue that conclusions based on multiple solution indeterminacy findings are of dubious merit rather generally

real exchange rates and real interest rate differentials a present value interpretation although the real exchange rate real interest rate reri relationship is central to most open economy macroeconomic models empirical support for the relationship is generally found to be rather weak in this paper we re investigate the reri relationship using bilateral us real exchange rate data spanning the period 1978 2007 instead of testing one particular model we build on campbell and shiller 1987 cointegration tests of present value models journal of political economy 95 1062 1088 to propose a metric of the economic significance of the relationship our empirical results provide robust evidence that the reri link is economically significant and that the real interest rate differential is a reasonable approximation of the expected rate of depreciation over longer horizons

exchange rates and unfair trade an examination of the changing country pattern of dumping and subsidy complaints by u s companies over time suggests that exchange rate fluctuations are a significant factor in determining case filings especially against japanese companies the inverse relationship observed between filings and the real external value of the u s dollar is consistent both with the traditional or technical interpretation of dumping and subsidy cases and with the view that they are promoted by rent seeking activities of lawyers and economists representing petitioners while this result says nothing about the merits of any particular case it cautions that the prevalence of unfair trade is not exogenous with respect to broader macroeconomic considerations copyright 1989 by mit press

model uncertainty and exchange rate volatility this article proposes an explanation for shifts in the volatility of exchange rate returns agents are uncertain about the true data generating model and deal with this uncertainty by making inference on the models and their parameters approach i call model learning model learning may lead agents to focus excessively on a subset of fundamental variables consequently exchange rate volatility is determined by the dynamics of these fundamentals and changes as agents alter models i investigate the empirical relevance of model learning and find that the change in volatility of gbp usd in 1993 was triggered by a shift between models

exchange rate predictability in a changing world an expanding literature articulates the view that taylor rules are helpful in predicting exchange rates in a changing world however taylor rule parameters may be subject to structural instabilities for example in the aftermath of the global financial crisis this paper forecasts exchange rates using taylor rules with time varying parameters tvp estimated by bayesian methods focusing on the data from the crisis we improve upon the random walk for at least half and for as many as seven out of 10 of the currencies considered results are stronger when we allow the tvp of the taylor rules to differ between countries

interest rates and currency prices in a two country world abstract this paper is a theoretical study of the determination of prices interest rates and currency exchange rates set in an infinitely lived two country world which is subject both to stochastic endowment shocks and to monetary instability formulas are obtained for pricing all equity claims nominally denominated bonds and currencies and these formulas are related to earlier closely related results in the theories of money finance international trade

escape dynamics in learning models this article illustrates and characterizes how adaptive learning can lead to recurrent large fluctuations learning models have typically focused on the convergence of beliefs towards an equilibrium however in stochastic environments there may be rare but recurrent episodes where shocks cause beliefs to escape from the equilibrium generating large movements in observed outcomes i characterize the escape dynamics by drawing on the theory of large deviations developing new results which make this theory directly applicable in a class of learning models the likelihood frequency and most likely direction of escapes are all characterized by a deterministic control problem i illustrate my results with two simple examples

corporate control and the choice of investment financing the case of corporate acquisitions we test the proposition that corporate control considerations motivate the means of investment financing cash and debt or stock corporate insiders who value control will prefer financing investments by cash or debt rather than by issuing new stock which dilutes their holdings and increases the risk of losing control our empirical results support this hypothesis in corporate acquisitions the larger the managerial ownership fraction of the acquiring firm the more likely the use of cash financing also the previously observed negative bidders abnormal returns associated with stock financing are mainly in acquisitions made by firms with low managerial ownership do firms have systematic preferences for the means of financing investments in modigliani and miller s 1958 m m s perfect market no tax world the means by which investments are financed are irrelevant for the total value of the firm miller 1977 extended this irrelevance proposition to a case where taxes exist however casual observation suggests that firms are not indifferent to the means of financing for example many firms prefer to finance investments from internal sources or by debt rather than by issuing new equity an explanation for such systematic financing preferences and the consequent capital structure of firms is therefore called for indeed a number of such explanations have been advanced for example deangelo and masulis 1980 showed that in miller s 1977 framework the means of financing is not irrelevant if firms have different expected marginal effective tax rates due to differences in fixed charges it has also been argued that financing preferences may result from agency costs associated with debt e g barnea haugen and senbet 1981 or from asymmetry of information between managers and outside investors myers and majluf 1984 recently harris and raviv 1988 and stulz 1988 advanced a new argument for the existence of financing preferences that centers around managers incentive to maintain control over the corporation specifically by increasing debt and using the proceeds to retire equity held by the public owners managers increase the probability of maintaining control and reaping the benefits associated with it since the substitution of debt for outsiders equity decreases the fraction of

forecasting and combining competing models of exchange rate determination this article investigates the out of sample forecast performance of a set of competing models of exchange rate determination we compare standard linear models with models that characterize the relationship between exchange rate and the underlying fundamentals by nonlinear dynamics linear models tend to outperform at short forecast horizons especially when deviations from long term equilibrium are small in contrast nonlinear models with more elaborate mean reverting components dominate at longer horizons especially when deviations from long term equilibrium are large the results also suggest that combining different forecasting procedures generally produces more accurate forecasts than can be attained from a single model

testing the monetary model of exchange rate determination new evidence from a century of data abstract we test the long run monetary model of exchange rate determination for a collection of 14 industrialized countries using data spanning the late nineteenth or early twentieth century to the late twentieth century interestingly we find support for a simple form of the long run monetary model in over half of the countries we consider for these countries we estimate vector error correction models to investigate the adjustment process to the long run monetary equilibrium in the spirit of meese and rogoff journal of international economics 14 1983 3 24 we also compare nominal exchange rate forecasts based on monetary fundamentals to those based on a naive random walk model

can information heterogeneity explain the exchange rate determination puzzle empirical evidence shows that most exchange rate volatility at short to medium horizons is related to order flow and not to macroeconomic variables we introduce symmetric information dispersion about future macroeconomic fundamentals in a dynamic rational expectations model in order to explain these stylized facts consistent with the evidence the model implies that a observed fundamentals account for little of exchange rate volatility in the short to medium run b over long horizons the exchange rate is closely related to observed fundamentals c exchange rate changes are a weak predictor of future fundamentals and d the exchange rate is closely related to order flow

panel discussion price stability how should long term monetary policy be determined these comments address the question of monetary strategy as distinct from monetary tactics they are not directed at the question of what monetary policy is appropriate at the present time or of how monetary policy should be determined at any specific point as a function of prevailing conditions instead the issue i take is one that has been of increasing interest to economists in recent years what should be the long terrn objectives of the monetary authority increased interest in this issue as opposed to the issue of fine tuning the economy reflects the general intellectual consensus that has emerged on two points first what the monetary authority surely can control in the long run is the growth rate of nominal income second issues of dynamic consistency and commitment are crucial to the design of appropriate monetary policies beyond its recognition of these points my view is that most of what the academic economics community has had to say on the issue of long run monetary strategy has been tangential at best and i fear that many of the papers at this conference have not done much to improve the situation i wish to advance four propositions about monetary policy and to discuss their implications first an optimal tax theory has little or nothing to do with sensible inflation policy second positive rates of inflation are almost certainly desirable third to an important extent institutions do the work of rules and monetary rules should be avoided instead institutions should be drafted to solve time inconsistency problems fourth h j res 409 the proposed zero inflation amendment is a good idea if it is not taken too seriously or too literally but is instead viewed as a device for strengthening the independence of the federal reserve system my first proposition is that the connection between optimal tax theory and infla

permanent and transitory policy shocks in an empirical macro model with asymmetric information abstract an empirical model that allows for shifts in the inflation target and imperfect policy credibility is estimated imperfect credibility defined by differences between the perceived and actual inflation target obtains because private agents cannot correctly distinguish between permanent target shocks and transitory funds rate shocks learning affects responses to structural shocks important features include the absence of a price puzzle permanent nominal effects of aggregate supply shocks due to partial policy accommodation and the ability to examine responses to a permanent target change and expectations shocks perceptions of permanent target shocks explain sizable movements in bond yields and inflation

macroeconomic factors and antidumping filings evidence from four countries abstract this paper examines the relationship between antidumping filings and macroeconomic factors real exchange rate fluctuations affect the two criteria for dumping in opposite ways making the overall effect on filings ambiguous in theory examining the filing patterns of the four major users of ad law during the 1980 98 period we find that real exchange rates and domestic real gdp growth both have statistically significant impacts on filings bilateral filing data indicate that a one standard deviation real appreciation of the domestic currency increases filings by 33 we also find one standard deviation fall in domestic real gdp increases filings by 23

the corporation competition and the invisible hand few would disagree that adam smith s invisible hand theorem is the heart of the economist s weltanschauung ask whether trade barriers should be lowered the spread of multinational corporations restrained oil prices deregulated cartels dissolved or more fundamentally whether a market based capitalist system is economically superior to a state run socialist system and economists almost certainly will begin to answer the question by trying to apply the theorem every student knows that the theorem depends on the assumption of atomistic competition which in turn assumes that the system is decentralized and that no competitor is large relatively to others there is another crucial assumption however that is often ignored and usually underemphasized namely that all competition is price competition in reality one of the most distinctive features of capitalism one that is most often raised in lay discussions of its merits and demerits is the prevalence of other forms of competition such as competition in research development and advertising competition to obtain and hold monopoly and competition for corporate growth these various forms of non price competition we shall aim to show are not clearly analogous with the theory of price competition more non price competition rather than less is not necessarily pareto optimal self evidently the production side of a market economy is decentralized only to a limited degree i e to the level of a decision making unit composed of more than one human such a unit playing neuron to the invisible hand is typically called a firm it is in fact a team rather than remaining small firms are in practice composed of any number of individuals from a handful on to half a million some

unstable inflation targets this paper studies long run inflation targets and stability in an imperfect information environment when central banks set an inflation target that is not fully communicated agents draw inferences about inflation from recent data and remain alert to structural change by forming expectations from a forecasting model that is estimated via discounted least squares inflation targets can lead agents beliefs to depart from rational expectations through two channels first implementing a higher inflation target can lead to overshooting second there can be nearly self fulfilling inflation disinflation or deflation that arises as an endogenous response to shocks policy implications for implementing a higher target without deanchoring expectations are discussed

trade liberalization macroeconomic fluctuations and contingent protection in latin america the main purpose of this paper is to analyze the main determinants of antidumping actions in latin america from a policy perspective it would be interesting to know whether the application of trade remedy instruments was associated with episodes of a depressed level of economic activity or real exchange rate appreciations or both these developments favor the finding of industry injury and dumping practices making the case for antidumping more justifiable an alternative hypothesis is that antidumping measures have been erected simply as replacements for formal tariff protection so that there should be a negative relationship between antidumping measures and tariff levels moreover antidumping actions may be associated less with macroeconomic variables affecting injury and dumping and more with political economy type variables such as industry concentration the main purpose of this study is to investigate these hypotheses employing a very detailed database for the three main antidumping countries in latin america argentina brazil and mexico we find support for the hypothesis that in these countries contingent protection has been employed to protect domestic industries in times of macroeconomic hardship in particular real exchange rate appreciations and sluggish gdp growth is associated with increasing antidumping actions the estimated quantitative impact seems quite significant on average a real appreciation of 25 percent raises expected antidumping initiations by about 20 percent also a 4 percentage point decline in gdp raises expected antidumping activity by 27 percent besides these macrodeterminants we also investigate whether antidumping actions were established to replace protection given by regular tariffs or whether they were affected by political economy variables such as industry concentration we find some evidence consistent with the first proposition but not with the second

testing the monetary model of exchange rate determination a closer look at panels abstract in this paper we undertake an extensive evaluation of panel tests of the long run monetary model of exchange rate determination we first show how poorly the monetary model performs on a country by country basis for us dollar exchange rates over the post bretton woods period for a large number of industrialized countries in sharp contrast we find considerable support for the monetary model using panel procedures as in groen 2000 and mark and sul 2001 given the disparity in the country by country and panel approaches we carefully analyze the homogeneity restrictions inherent in the panel procedures the evidence on the appropriateness of the homogeneity restrictions is mixed in the end whether the monetary model conforms to post bretton woods data largely depends on one s prior beliefs

escapist policy rules abstract we study a simple microfounded macroeconomic system in which the monetary authority employs a taylor type policy rule we analyze situations in which the self confirming equilibrium is unique and learnable and explore the prospects for the use of large deviation theory we show that the system can sometimes depart from the self confirming equilibrium towards a non equilibrium outcome characterized by persistently low nominal interest rates and persistently low inflation these events that have some of the properties of liquidity traps observed in the data even though the policymaker remains committed to a taylor type policy rule which otherwise has desirable stabilization properties

learning about monetary policy rules abstract we study macroeconomic systems with forward looking private sector agents and a monetary authority that is trying to control the economy through the use of a linear policy feedback rule we use stability under recursive learning a la evans and honkapohja learning and expectations in macroeconomics princeton university press princeton new jersey 2001 as a criterion for evaluating monetary policy rules in this context we find that considering learning can alter the evaluation of alternative policy rules

liquidity traps and expectation dynamics fiscal stimulus or fiscal austerity we examine global dynamics under infinite horizon learning in new keynesian models where the interest rate rule is subject to the zero lower bound as in evans guse and honkapohja 2008 the intended steady state is locally but not globally stable unstable deflationary paths emerge after large pessimistic shocks to expectations for large expectation shocks that push interest rates to the zero bound a temporary fiscal stimulus or a policy of fiscal austerity appropriately tailored in magnitude and duration will insulate the economy from deflation traps however fiscal switching rules that automatically kick in without discretionary fine tuning can be equally effective

a critique of variance bounds tests for monetary exchange rate models note the monetary approach to exchange rate determination attributes the observed volatility of floating rates to revisions of expectations about current and future disturbances that affect the supply and demand conditions in the money market see for example frenkel and mussa 1980 a number of recent studies have proposed and implemented variance bounds tests of monetary exchange rate models along the lines of bond price and stock price volatility tests pioneered by leroy and porter 1981 shiller 1979 1981 and singleton 1980 huang 1981 presents evidence apparently demonstrating that some exchange rates are more volatile than a simple monetary model based on the assumptions of purchasing power parity and uncovered interest parity can rationalize meese and singleton 1983 derive but do not test the variance bounds implied by a number of monetary models vander kraats and booth 1983 henceforth referred to as v b implement volatility tests for three monetary models they conclude that only a variant of the sticky price model developed by dornbusch 1976 can potentially explain under certain rather implausible assumptions about parameter values the observed volatility of the exchange rates included in their sample in the literature this evidence of excess volatility of floating rates is considered damaging to the monetary approach and or to the rational expectations hypothesis for example in his recent survey of the literature richard levich remarks that on the basis of huang s results it follows that either the market is inefficient or that the rational expectations monetary model is incorrect or both levich 1985 p 994 the primary purpose of the present paper is to point out that the excess volatility evidence presented by huang and by ai b arises from a calculation error namely the value they assign to the interest semielasticity of money demand may be appropriate for a study using annual time series but is inappropriate for their monthly data once this error is corrected their exchange rate series no longer violate the variance bounds they test

optimal managerial contracts and equilibrium security prices recent developments in economic theory have focused attention on efficient methods for providing incentives within a corporation especially to top management jensen meckling 12 have examined some implications of incentive or agency problems for corporate finance in this paper we combine a simple model of security market equilibrium with that of an optimal managerial incentive contract using results of harris raviv 8 and holmstrom 9 we provide a rationale for including security prices in the managerial incentive contracts of publicly held firms in this model we also show that non systematic diversifiable risks will be considered in the capital budgeting decisions of a managerial firm operated in the interests of its stockholders this is in contrast to the implication of the arbitrage pricing theory a similar result follows from the capital asset pricing model which abstracts from incentive problems and suggests that only systematic risks ought to be considered the optimal contract model of the corporation takes the following view of the firm since decision makers within a firm are not sole owners of the business but employed agents the decisions which they make depend on the incentives which the organization provides these incentives are embodied explicitly in employment contracts and implicitly through the threat of dismissal or effect on reputation the contract whether explicit or not describes the decision maker s anticipation of the consequences to him conditional on various observable outcomes these outcomes are used to provide information useful in determining whether he did his job properly in the simplest optimal contract scenario there is a single principal and a single agent whose decision concerns the level of effort he expends the level of effort affects the level of output of the firm but not unambiguously because the output is also governed by other stochastic elements as a result some information about the agent s level of effort can be inferred

escaping nash inflation an ordinary differential equation ode gives the mean dynamics that govern the convergence to self confirming equilibria of self referential systems under discounted least squares learning another ode governs escape dynamics that recurrently propel away from a self confirming equilibrium in a model with a unique self confirming equilibrium the escape dynamics make the government discover too strong a version of the natural rate hypothesis the escape route dynamics cause recurrent outcomes close to the ramsey commitment inflation rate in a model with an adaptive government

learning large deviations and recurrent currency crises this article studies a version of obstfeld s journal of international economics 43 1997 61 77 escape clause model the model is calibrated to produce three rational expectations equilibria two of these equilibria are e stable and one is unstable dynamics are introduced by assuming that agents must learn about the government s decision rule it is assumed they do this using a stochastic approximation algorithm it turns out that as a certain parameter describing the sensitivity of beliefs to new information gets small the algorithm converges to a small noise diffusion process the dynamics of exchange rate changes are then characterized using large deviation techniques from freidlin and wentzell random perturbations of dynamical systems second edition berlin springer verlag 1998 these methods describe the sense in which the limiting distribution of exchange rate changes is approximated by a two state markov switching process where the two states correspond to the two e stable equilibria the model is calibrated to the exchange rate histories of argentina brazil and mexico currency crises in these countries resemble the predicted escape routes of the model a key feature of these escape routes is that expectations of a devaluation erupt suddenly without large contemporaneous shocks this is consistent with evidence showing that crises are often poorly anticipated by financial markets

liquidity traps learning and stagnation we examine global economic dynamics under learning in a new keynesian model in which the interest rate rule is subject to the zero lower bound under normal monetary and fiscal policy the intended steady state is locally but not globally stable large pessimistic shocks to expectations can lead to deflationary spirals with falling prices and falling output to avoid this outcome we recommend augmenting normal policies with aggressive monetary and fiscal policy that guarantee a lower bound on inflation in contrast policies geared toward ensuring an output lower bound are insufficient for avoiding deflationary spirals

the monetary exchange rate model as a long run phenomenon abstract pure time series based tests fail to find empirical support for monetary exchange rate models in this paper we apply pooled time series estimation on a forward looking monetary model resulting in parameter estimates which are in compliance with the underlying theory based on a panel version of the engle and granger engle r f granger c w j 1987 co integration and error correction representation estimation and testing econometrica 55 251 276 two step procedure we find that the residuals of the panel based estimated monetary model are stationary this indicates that on a pooled time series level there is cointegration between the exchange rate and the macroeconomic fundamentals of this monetary model

a stochastic dominance analysis of yen carry trades abstract yen carry trades have made headline news for over a decade we examine the profitability of such trades for the period 2001 2009 yen carry trades generated high mean returns and sharpe ratios prior to the recent financial crisis they continued to outperform major stock markets for the full sample period given the non normality of carry trade returns we apply non parametric tests based on stochastic dominance sd to evaluate whether the high returns of yen carry trades are compatible with risk as reflected in returns on us and global stock market indices we apply a general test for sd developed recently by linton maasoumi and whang 2005 to six currencies as well as portfolios of these currencies for a large class of risk averse investors profits from yen carry trades cannot be attributed to risks

on corporate governance a study of proxy contests abstract this paper examines a sample of firms experiencing proxy contests for seats on their board of directors dissident shareholders usually fail to obtain a majority of board seats nevertheless they capture some seats via mechanisms such as cumulative voting in over half of the sample contests regardless of proxy contest outcome positive and statistically significant share price performance is associated with the contest that finding is predicted by the standard economic analysis of proxy contests in which the challenges benefit shareholders by improving corporate performance the finding runs counter to the claim of berle 1962 that the economists view of proxy contests is a wholly imaginary picture a portion of the positive share price changes taking place in the early stages of some proxy contests is not permanent however and as suggested by manne 1962 is at least partially attributable to temporary increases in the market value of the vote attached to corporate shares

exchange rate predictability the main goal of this article is to provide an answer to the question does anything forecast exchange rates and if so which variables it is well known that exchange rate fluctuations are very difficult to predict using economic models and that a random walk forecasts exchange rates better than any economic model the meese and rogoff puzzle however the recent literature has identified a series of fundamentals methodologies that claim to have resolved the puzzle this article provides a critical review of the recent literature on exchange rate forecasting and illustrates the new methodologies and fundamentals that have been recently proposed in an up to date thorough empirical analysis overall our analysis of the literature and the data suggests that the answer to the question are exchange rates predictable is it depends on the choice of predictor forecast horizon sample period model and forecast evaluation method predictability is most apparent when one or more of the following hold the predictors are taylor rule or net foreign assets the model is linear and a small number of parameters are estimated the toughest benchmark is the random walk without drift

accounting for exchange rate variability in present value models when the discount factor is near 1 a well known stylized fact about nominal exchange rates among low inflation advanced countries particularly u s exchange rates is that their logs are approximately random walks michael i mussa 1979 is most frequently cited for observing this regularity in a famous pair of papers richard a meese and kenneth rogoff 1983a b found that the structural models of the 1970 s could not beat a random walk in explaining exchange rate movements recently some authors menzie chinn and meese 1995 nelson mark 1995 mark and donggyu sul 2001 have argued that the models can outforecast the random walk at long horizons but a comprehensive recent study by yin wong cheung et al 2003 documents that no model consistently outperforms a random walk why one obvious explanation is that the macroeconomic variables that determine the exchange rate themselves follow random walks if the log of the nominal exchange rate is a linear function of forcing variables that are random walks then it will inherit the random walk property the problem with this explanation is that the economic fundamentals proposed in the most popular models of exchange rates do not in fact follow simple random walks one resolution to this problem is that there may be some other fundamentals ones that have been proposed in some models but are not easily measurable or ones that have not yet been proposed at all that are important in determining exchange rates if these unobserved fundamentals follow random walks and dominate the variation in exchange rate changes then exchange rates will nearly be random walks even if the standard observed fundamentals are not in engel and west 2003a hereinafter ew we propose an alternative explanation we consider linear models of the exchange rate that are in the asset market approach to exchange rates these models emphasize the role of expectations of future economic fundamentals in determining the current exchange rate the exchange rate expressed as the home currency price of foreign currency in this paper can be written as a discounted sum of the current and expected future fundamentals

perpetual learning and apparent long memory abstract this paper studies the low frequency dynamics in forward looking models where expectations are formed using perpetual learning such as constant gain least squares we show that if the coefficient on expectations is sufficiently close to unity perpetual learning induces strong persistence that is empirically indistinguishable from long memory we apply this result to present value models of stock prices and exchange rates and find that perpetual learning can explain the long memory observed in the data

taylor rules and the deutschmark dollar real exchange rate we explore the link between an interest rate rule for monetary policy and the behavior of the real exchange rate the interest rate rule in conjunction with some standard assumptions implies that the deviation of the real exchange rate from its steady state depends on the present value of a weighted sum of inflation and output gap differentials the weights are functions of the parameters of the interest rate rule an initial look at german data yields some support for the model

corporate takeover bids methods of payment and bidding firms stock returns this study explores the role of the method of payment in explaining common stock returns of bidding firms at the announcement of takeover bids the results reveal significant differences in the abnormal returns between common stock exchanges and cash offers the results are independent of the type of takeover bid i e merger or tender offer and of bid outcomes these findings supported by analysis of nonconvertible bonds are attributed mainly to signalling effects and imply that the inconclusive evidence of earlier studies on takeovers may be due to their failure to control for the method of payment recent studies on corporate takeovers provide inconclusive results on the valuation effects of acquisitions on the common stock of bidding firms 1 substantial differences are reported between the studies that analyze acquisitions initiated as tender offers and those that confine their samples to merger proposals the existence of mixed empirical findings for the bidding firms makes it difficult to interpret existing evidence and to draw conclusions about the managers acquisition motivations nevertheless the reason for the substantial difference between empirical findings on mergers and tender offers still remains an unresolved issue it is observed however that mergers are usually common stock exchange offers whereas tender offers are usually cash offers given that different methods of financing a project have different signalling implications myers and majluf 39 the differential stock returns of bidders in mergers and tender offers may be due to the method of acquisition financing

conglomerate mergers managerial motives and stockholder wealth managerial theories of conglomerate mergers suggest that such mergers are motivated by the manager s desire to reduce his firm s and thus his income risk yet the application of optimal contracting models e g diamond and verrecchia 1982 to this issue suggests that the stockholders who bear the cost of uncertainty may also benefit from reducing the firm s risk examining the market reaction to congomerate mergers announcements we cannot support the hypothesis that managers initiate conglomerate mergers solely for their own benefit to the detriment of stockholders

the science of monetary policy an imperfect knowledge perspective this paper reevaluates the basic prescriptions of monetary policy design in the new keynesian paradigm through the lens of imperfect knowledge we show that while the basic logic of monetary policy design under rational expectations continues to obtain perfect knowledge and learning can limit the set of policies available to central banks rendering expectations management in general more difficult nonetheless the desirability of some form of price level targeting inducing inertia in interest rate policy paramount under rational expectations is robust to the assumption of imperfect knowledge

learning to forecast the exchange rate two competing approaches this paper compares two competing approaches to model foreign exchange market participants behavior statistical learning and fitness learning these learning mechanisms are applied to a set of predictors chartist and fundamentalist rules we examine which of the learning approaches is best in terms of replicating the exchange rate dynamics within the framework of a standard asset pricing model we find that both learning methods reveal the fundamental value of the exchange rate in the equilibrium but only fitness learning creates the disconnection phenomenon and only statistical learning replicates volatility clustering none of the mechanisms is able to produce a unit root process but both of them generate non normally distributed returns

the taylor rule and optimal monetary policy where it denotes the fed s operating target for the federal funds rate pt is the inflation rate measured by the gdp deflator yt is the log of real gdp and y t is the log of potential output identified empirically with a linear trend the rule has since been subject to considerable attention both as an account of actual policy in the united states and elsewhere and as a prescription for desirable policy taylor argues for the rule s normative significance both on the basis of simulations and on the ground that it describes u s policy in a period in which monetary policy is widely judged to have been unusually successful taylor 1999 suggesting that the rule is worth adopting as a principle of behavior here i wish to consider to what extent this prescription resembles the sort of policy that economic theory would recommend i consider the question in the context of a simple but widely used optimizing model of the monetary transmission mechanism which allows one to reach clear conclusions about economic welfare the model is highly stylized but incorporates important features of more realistic models and allows me to make several points that are of more general validity out of concern for the robustness of the conclusions reached the analysis here addresses only broad qualitative features of the taylor rule and attempts to identify features of a desirable policy rule that are likely to hold under a variety of model specifications

a scapegoat model of exchange rate fluctuations while empirical evidence finds only a weak relationship between nominal exchange rates and macroeconomic fundamentals forex markets participants often attribute exchange rate movements to a macroeconomic variable the variables that matter however appear to change over time and some variable is typically taken as a scapegoat for example the current dollar weakness appears to be caused almost exclusively by the large current account deficit while its previous strength was explained mainly by growth differentials in this paper we propose an explanation of this phenomenon in a simple monetary model of the exchange rate with noisy rational expectations where investors have heterogeneous information on some structural parameter of the economy in this context there may be rational confusion about the true source of exchange rate fluctuations so that if an unobservable variable affects the exchange rate investors may attribute this movement to some current macroeconomic fundamental we show that this effect applies only to variables with large imbalances the model thus implies that the impact of macroeconomic variables on the exchange rate changes over time this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

the perils of taylor rules abstract since john taylor s 1993 carnegie rochester conf ser publ policy39 195 214 seminal paper a large literature has argued that active interest rate feedback rules that is rules that respond to increases in inflation with a more than one for one increase in the nominal interest rate are stabilizing in this paper we argue that once the zero bound on nominal interest rates is taken into account active interest rate feedback rules can easily lead to unexpected consequences specifically we show that even if the steady state at which monetary policy is active is locally the unique equilibrium typically there exist an infinite number of equilibrium trajectories originating arbitrarily close to that steady state that converge to a liquidity trap that is a steady state in which the nominal interest rate is near zero and inflation is possibly negative journal of economic literature classification numbers e52 e31 e63

flexible exchange rates prices and the role of news lessons from the 1970s recent experience with flexible exchange rate systems has led to renewed interest in the operation of foreign exchange markets as reflected in many recent studies of the principal determinants of exchange rates the 1970s witnessed the dramatic alteration of the international monetary system from a regime of pegged exchange rates which prevailed for about a quarter of a century since the bretton woods conference into a regime of flexible though managed rates as a consequence of the emergence of the new legal and economic system traders national governments and international organisations were confronted with new economic problems choices and instruments during the 1970s ex change rates fluctuated widely and inflation rates accelerated the international monetary system had to accommodate extraordinarily large oil related shocks which affected trade flows in goods and assets huge oil payments had to be recycled uncertainties concerning future developments in international politics reached new heights and the prospects for the world economy got gloomier these developments placed unprecedented pressures on the markets for foreign exchange as well as on other asset markets they were associated with a large slide in the value of the us dollar and resulted in speeding up the creation of new institutions like the european monetary system which provided the formal framework for the management of exchange rates among members

central bank communication and the liquidity trap central bank communication plays an important role in shaping market participants expectations this paper studies a simple nonlinear model of monetary policy where agents have incomplete information about the economic environment it shows that agents learning and the dynamics of the economy are heavily affected by central bank s transparency about its policy rule a monetary authority that does not communicate its rule can induce learning equilibria where the economy experiences prolonged periods of deflation and slow growth more generally small expectational errors can result in complex economic dynamics inducing welfare reducing fluctuations on the contrary central bank communication helps stabilizing expectations around the inflation target equilibrium

adaptive expectations underparameterization and the lucas critique abstract a striking implication of the replacement of adaptive expectations by rational expectations was the lucas critique which showed that expectation parameters and endogenous variable dynamics depend on policy parameters we consider this issue from the vantage point of bounded rationality where for transparency we model bounded rationality by means of simple adaptive expectations we show that for a range of processes monetary policy remains subject to the lucas critique however there are also regimes in which the expectation parameter is locally invariant and the lucas critique does not apply

banking on currency forecasts how predictable is change in money abstract the paper examines the predictive performance of four structural exchange rate models using both parametric and nonparametric techniques error correction versions of the models are fit so that plausible long run elasticities can be imposed on the fundamental variables of each model a variety of model evaluation statistics are reported our findings confirm that fundamental exchange rate models forecast no better than a random walk model for short term prediction horizons for longer horizons error correction terms can explain exchange rate movements significantly better than a no change forecast for a subset of the models and currencies we consider

a simple recursive forecasting model abstract we compare the performance of alternative recursive forecasting models a simple constant gain algorithm used widely in the learning literature both forecasts well out of sample and also provides the best fit to the survey of professional forecasters

taylor rules and the canadian us equilibrium exchange rate abstract this paper identifies the canadian us equilibrium exchange rate based on a simple structural model of the real exchange rate in which monetary policy follows a taylor rule interest rate reaction function the exchange rate is explained by relative output and inflation as observable variables and by unobserved equilibrium rates as well as unobserved transitory components in output and the exchange rate using canadian data over 1974 2009 we jointly estimate the unobserved components and the structural parameters using the kalman filter and bayesian technique we find that canada s equilibrium exchange rate evolves smoothly and follows a trend depreciation the transitory component is found to be very persistent but much more volatile than the equilibrium rate resulting in few but prolonged periods of currency misalignments

the monetary model of the exchange rate long run relationships short run dynamics and how to beat a random walk abstract the monetary model is re examined for the sterling dollar exchange rate first it is demonstrated using a multivariate cointegration technique that an unrestricted monetary model is a valid framework for analyzing the long run exchange rate second we find once proper account has been taken of the short run data dynamics that an unrestricted monetary model outperforms the random walk and other models in an out of sample forecasting contest jel f31

a realistic model for official interest rate movements and their consequences this article extends the vector autoregression var methodology to examine the consequences of monetary policy decisions by considering two types of nonlinearities in the determination of official interest rates 1 the asymmetry related to the different nature of the discrete and infrequent positive and negative interest rate movements determined by central bankers and 2 the convexity in the transmission of policy shocks induced by the nonnegativity constraint in interest rates for the uk we find some evidence of both types of asymmetries in the us responses to unexpected interest rate shocks are far more symmetric results highlight the importance of considering all types of asymmetries when studying monetary transmission

the monetary approach to exchange rate in an efficient foreign exchange market tests based on volatility the variance bounds on exchange rate movements implied by the monetary approach to exchange rate in an efficient foreign exchange market is shown to be violated by sample data the paper also presents evidence showing that the forecast errors implied by the monetary model can be forecasted using historical data the results are interpreted to suggest either the incompatibility of the monetary approach with sample data or an inefficient foreign exchange market or both models of exchange rate determination based on the monetary approach to the balance of payments imply when coupled with an interest rate parity relation and the assumption of an efficient foreign exchange market that exchange rates are related to a long average of money stocks differentials 1 2 the long average is analogous to the difference across countries of the long average of expected future money stocks which was supposed to characterize the price level of a single country see e g sargent and wallace 20 since long averages are known to have certain smoothing properties it appears that the observed volatility of exchange rates may be inconsistent with these models thus alternative tests of the models may be produced which rely on those properties the aim of this paper is to determine if the observed volatility is consistent with those properties the paper is the first to use tests based on the volatility of the exchange rate in an efficient market model of the monetary approach the first set of tests is based on the property of implied variance bounds for exchange rate movements and the second set consists of the more familiar efficient market tests of forecastability the empirical results violate these two sets of tests of the model thus casting doubt on the model even though the claim that exchange rates are too volatile has been commonly made few direct attempts have been made in the past to determine the validity of the claim some studies have presented estimates of variances of spot and forward rates but lacking an objective criterion to determine what constitutes

exchange rates and fundamentals under adaptive learning abstract this paper studies a monetary model that is standard in all respects except that market participants have incomplete knowledge about the economic structure and employ adaptive learning rules to learn about the economic environment market participants also must contend with unannounced regime shifts simulation results suggest that the models under adaptive learning especially constant gain learning combined with a structural change dominate the alternative specifications of expectations in their ability to account for why fundamentals predict exchange rate returns over long horizons but not over short horizons and for generating excessively volatile returns and persistent deviations of the exchange rate from the monetary fundamentals

meese rogoff redux micro based exchange rate forecasting meese rogoff redux micro based exchange rate forecasting by martin d d evans and richard k lyons this paper compares the true ex ante fore casting performance of a micro based model against both a standard macro model and a random walk in contrast to existing literature which is focused on longer horizon forecasting we examine forecasting over horizons from one day to one month the one month horizon being where micro and macro analysis begin to over lap over our three year forecasting sample we find that the micro based model consistently outperforms both the random walk and the macro model micro based forecasts account for almost 16 percent of the sample variance in monthly spot rate changes these results pro vide a level of empirical validation as yet unat tained by other models the forecasting experiment proposed by richard meese and kenneth rogoff 1983 re mains a benchmark against which exchange rate models are judged their result that structural macro models cannot outperform a naive random walk has proved robust over the decades yet the meese rogoff paper was never about forecasting in the true sense i e using tirrie f information to forecast exchange rates at t 1 b y using concurrent realized values of the forcing variables their regressions were more about concurrent explanation than about ex ante forecasting their only forecast ing element is in their reliance on ex ante data to estimate equation parameters which appro priately penalized models whose estimated pa rameters were unstable tion for the random walk nature of exchange rates is that there exists some unobserved fun damental that itself follows a random walk un observed being important because fundamentals proposed in most macro models do not follow random walks they offer a different explana tion one rooted in the asset approach to ex change rates and the present value relation that follows from it specifically they show that i f fundamentals are 1 1 but not necessarily ran dom walks then as the discount factor in the present value relation approaches 1 the ex change rate will follow a process arbitrarily close to a random walk intuitively given that an 1 1 process can be split into random walk and stationary components a discount factor near 1 means that most all of the weight is placed on fundamentals far into the future ex pectations of which are dominated by the random walk component charles engel and kenneth west 2004 2005 provide a valuable perspective on the forecastability of exchange rates one explana this paper takes the analysis of engel and west as an important reorientation of thinking and brings it to the natural next step specifi cally if there is little room for forecasting based on stationary components of fundamentals then one needs to focus on where all the action is namely exchange rate dynamics that come from expectational surprises though the sur prise part is by definition orthogonal to public information our micro based model shows that there should exist types of nonpublic infor mation that are useful for forecasting this part and where to look for these types of informa tion we then locate data on these types of nonpublic information and test whether they have true ex ante forecasting power we should evans department of economics georgetown uni versity washington dc 20057 and nber lyons haas school of business university of california berkeley c a 94720 1900 and nber we are grateful to ken west for his comments and to the national science foundation for financial support we refrain from using the word news because it has too strong an association with macro information that is public which even in the most careful of event studies explains less than 5 percent of exchange rate variation in total see torben andersen et al 2003