success survive or escape aspirations and poverty traps i present a model of occupational choice where an agent decides whether to invest in a project that yields risky returns or a project that yields safe returns an agent s utility is affected by the presence of an aspiration level which will only be satisfied if their final income is above the poverty line i show that agents who are sufficiently above the poverty line will invest in the risky project and are able to aspire for success an agent however who is just above the poverty line may be so concerned about falling into poverty that they choose to invest in the safe project these individuals aspire only to survive alternatively if an agent is sufficiently below the poverty line then they will invest in the risky project even if expected returns are lower than the safe project these individuals have nothing left to lose and therefore aspire to escape two forms of poverty traps emerge from the resulting equilibria one above the poverty line and one below the poverty line finally i offer empirical support for the model based on individual level survey data across a large number of countries

entrepreneurs risk aversion and dynamic firms how do entrepreneurs vary firm size capital structure and default to manage risk we show that more risk averse entrepreneurs run smaller more highly leveraged firms and default less because running a smaller firm with higher debt reduces personal funds at risk in the firm optimal default depends on ex ante debt consumption forgone from firm liquidation and owner capacity to inject funds we show that entrepreneurs sacrifice current consumption in the hope of future success that never materializes for the bottom 25 percent but entrepreneurship is a path toward great wealth and high consumption for the top quartile

exclusion and moral hazard the case of identical demand abstract this paper examines the problem of costly exclusion of individuals from a public good previous analyses of exclusion have treated it as solely a question of technologies in our analysis exclusion depends on technology and incentives in this paper providers of the good design a mechanism to provide an optimal level of deterrence to free riders if individuals are heterogeneous optimal deterrence may allow some free riders we examine the effect of costs of exclusion on the samuelson condition for optimal provision and see that the desire to deter free riding leads to underprovision of the good irrespective of the degree of rivalry of the good

measuring the default risk of small business loans a survival analysis approach in this paper we report that although medium maturity loans originated under the sba 7 a loan guarantee program are targeted to small firms that fail to obtain credit through conventional channels the default experience is comparable to that of a large percentage of loans held by larger commercial banks we establish that the default behavior of these loans is time sensitive as a loan seasons the likelihood of default increases initially peaks in the second year and declines thereafter using a discrete time hazard framework we show that the likelihood of default is conditional on borrower lender and loan characteristics and changes in economic conditions

how good are standard debt contracts stochastic versus nonstochastic monitoring in a costly state verification environment the authors investigate ex ante efficient contracts in an environment in which implementation is costless in this environment standard debt contracts will typically not be optimal optimal contracts may involve defaults even in states in which the borrower is fully able to repay the authors then examine the welfare costs of arbitrarily restricting the set of feasible contracts to standard debt contracts when model parameters are calibrated to realistic values the welfare loss from exogenously imposing this restriction is extremely small thus if implementation costs are actually nontrivial as seems likely standard debt contracts will be very close to optimal copyright 1994 by university of chicago press

distinguishing limited liability from moral hazard in a model of entrepreneurship we present and estimate a model in which the choice between entrepreneurship and wage work may be influenced by financial market imperfections the model allows for limited liability moral hazard and a combination of both constraints the paper uses structural techniques to estimate the model and identify the source of financial market imperfections using data from rural and semiurban households in thailand structural nonparametric and reduced form estimates provide independent evidence that the dominant source of credit market imperfections is moral hazard we reject the hypothesis that limited liability alone can explain the data

entrepreneurial finance and nondiversifiable risk w e develop a dynamic incomplete markets model of entrepreneurial firms and demonstrate the implications of nondiversifiable risks for entrepreneurs interdependent consumption portfolio allocation financing investment and business exit decisions we characterize the optimal capital structure via a generalized tradeoff model where risky debt provides significant diversification benefits nondiversifiable risks have several important implications more risk averse entrepreneurs default earlier but choose higher leverage lack of diversification causes entrepreneurial firms to underinvest relative to public firms and risky debt partially alleviates this problem and entrepreneurial risk aversion can overturn the risk shifting incentives induced by risky debt we also analytically characterize the idiosyncratic risk premium jel g11 g31 e20

consumer bankruptcy a fresh start consumer bankruptcy provides partial insurance against bad luck but by driving up interest rates makes life cycle smoothing more difficult we argue that to assess this trade off one needs a quantitative model of consumer bankruptcy with three key features life cycle component idiosyncratic earnings uncertainty and expense uncertainty exogenous negative shocks to household balance sheets we find that transitory and persistent earnings shocks have very different implications for evaluating bankruptcy rules more persistent shocks make the bankruptcy option more desirable larger transitory shocks have the opposite effect our findings suggest the current us bankruptcy system may be desirable for reasonable parameter values jel d14 d91 k35

measuring heterogeneity in the returns to education using an education reform abstract in this paper we explore the impact of a mandatory education reform as well as pre reform availability of schools above the mandatory level on educational attainment and returns to education in norway we contribute to the existing literature by focusing on the heterogeneity of the impact of reforms our results indicate that increased compulsory education from seven to nine years increased the general level of education beyond the compulsory education we also find that the effect of family background on educational attainment was weaker after the reform the average treatment effect on returns to education is surprisingly high for education of intermediate duration this means that increasing the general level of education potentially generates high returns in the form of wages we also find that the effect of treatment on the treated on the returns to education is 1 4 percentage points higher than the average treatment effect

school tracking and access to higher education among disadvantaged groups abstract when students are tracked into vocational and academic secondary schools access to higher education is usually restricted to those who complete an academic track postponing such tracking may increase university attendance among disadvantaged students if additional time in school enables them to catch up with their more privileged counterparts however if ability and expectations are fairly well set by an early age postponing tracking during adolescence may not have much effect this paper exploits an educational reform in romania to examine the impact of postponing tracking on the proportion of disadvantaged students graduating from university using a regression discontinuity rd design we show that although students from poor rural areas and with less educated parents were significantly more likely to finish an academic track and become eligible to apply for university after the reform this did not translate into an increase in university completion our findings indicate that simply postponing tracking without increasing the slots available in university is not sufficient to improve access to higher education for disadvantaged groups

economic impacts of new unionization on private sector employers 1984 2001 economic impacts of unionization on employers are difficult to estimate in the absence of large representative data on establishments with union status information estimates are also confounded by selection bias because unions could organize at highly profitable enterprises that are more likely to grow and pay higher wages using multiple establishment level data sets that represent establishments that faced organizing drives in the united states during 1984 1999 this paper uses a regression discontinuity design to estimate the impact of unionization on business survival employment output productivity and wages essentially outcomes for employers where unions barely won the election e g by one vote are compared with those where the unions barely lost the analysis finds small impacts on all outcomes that we examine estimates for wages are close to zero the evidence suggests that at least in recent decades the legal mandate that requires the employer to bargain with a certified union has had little economic impact on employers because unions have been somewhat unsuccessful at securing significant wage gains

cohort crowding how resources affect collegiate attainment abstract analyses of college attainment typically focus on factors affecting enrollment demand including the financial attractiveness of a college education and the availability of financial aid while implicitly assuming that resources available per student on the supply side of the market are elastically supplied the higher education market in the united states is dominated by public and non profit production and colleges and universities receive considerable subsidies from state federal and private sources because consumers pay only a fraction of the cost of production changes in demand are unlikely to be accommodated fully by colleges and universities without commensurate increases in non tuition revenue for this reason public investment in higher education plays a crucial role in determining the degrees produced and the supply of college educated workers to the labor market using data covering the last half of the twentieth century we find strong evidence that large cohorts within states have relatively low undergraduate degree attainment reflecting less than perfect elasticity of supply in the higher education market that large cohorts receive lower public subsidies per student in higher education explains this result indicating that resources have large effects on degree production our results suggest that reduced resources per student following from rising cohort size and lower state expenditures are likely to have significant negative effects on the supply of college educated workers entering the labor market

borrowing from employees wage dynamics with financial constraints we analyze how the financial conditions of the firm affect the compensation structure of workers the size of the firm and its dynamics firms that are financially constrained offer long term wage contracts characterized by an increasing wage profile that is they pay lower wages today in exchange of higher future wages effectively borrowing from their employees because constrained firms also operate at a suboptimal scale which then increases gradually over time we have that younger and smaller firms grow faster and pay lower wages jel g31 j31 e24

the long run effects of reducing early school tracking abstract this paper studies the effects of a french detracking reform on individuals long run education and labor market outcomes the reform delayed the age at which students were separated into vocational and general education by two years from age 11 to 13 the assignment of students to different types of education at age 11 was instead replaced by ability grouping whereby students followed a common general education curriculum but were divided into different classrooms based on their academic achievement using a regression discontinuity design i find that the reform raised individuals level of education and increased their wages by 6 at ages 40 to 45 these effects are concentrated among men and individuals from low socioeconomic backgrounds however the reform solely benefited individuals whose parents were born in france as it did not significantly affect children of immigrants educational and labor market outcomes

a theory of user fee competition we develop a two region model where the decentralized provision of spillover goods and other public expenditures is financed by means of user fees we show that a decentralized solution tends to be inefficient if the regional spillover goods are substitutes user fees tend to be inefficiently low whereas they tend to be inefficiently high if the spillover goods are complements

a note on optimal experimentation under risk aversion abstract in a standard two armed bandit setup this paper shows counterintuitively that a more risk averse decision maker might be more willing to take risky actions the reason relates to the fact that pulling the risky arm in bandit models produces information on the environment thereby reducing the risk that a decision maker will face in the future this finding gives reason for caution when inferring risk preferences from observed actions in a bandit setup observing a greater appetite for risky actions can actually be indicative of more risk aversion not less

deal or no deal decision making under risk in a large payoff game show we examine the risky choices of contestants in the popular tv game show deal or no deal and related classroom experiments contrary to the traditional view of expected utility theory the choices can be explained in large part by previous outcomes experienced during the game risk aversion decreases after earlier expectations have been shattered by unfavorable outcomes or surpassed by favorable outcomes our results point to reference dependent choice theories such as prospect theory and suggest that path dependence is relevant even when the choice problems are simple and well defined and when large real monetary amounts are at stake

decision making under risk in deal or no deal we analyse the choices of 399 contestants in the australian version of the television game show deal or no deal we calculate risk aversion bounds for each contestant revealing considerable heterogeneity we then estimate a structural stochastic choice model that captures the dynamic decision problem faced by contestants to address individual heterogeneity we nest the dynamic problem within the settings of both a random effects and a random coefficients probit model our structural model produces plausible estimates of risk aversion confirms the role of individual heterogeneity and suggests that a model of stochastic choice is indeed appropriate we find mixed evidence of greater risk aversion by females we also examine generalizations to expected utility theory finding that the rank dependent utility model adds non negligible explanatory power and indicates optimism in probability weighting finally we test but are unable to confirm the existence of an endowment effect for lotteries copyright 2009 john wiley sons ltd

educational reform ability and family background in this paper we evaluate the impact of a major school reform that took place in the 1950s in sweden on educational attainment and earnings the reform which has many common elements with reforms in other european countries including the uk consisted of increasing compulsor schooling imposing a national curriculum and abolishing selection by ability into academic and non academic streams at the age of 12 comprehensive school reform our data combines survey data with administrative sources we find that the reform increased both the educational attainment and the earnings of children whose fathers had just compulsory education however the earnings of those with educated parents declined possibly because of a dilution of quality at the top end of the education levels the overall effect of the reform was however positive

school tracking and intergenerational income mobility evidence from the finnish comprehensive school reform abstract this paper estimates the effect of a major education reform on intergenerational income mobility the finnish comprehensive school reform of 1972 1977 replaced the old two track school system with a uniform nine year comprehensive school and shifted the selection of students to vocational and academic tracks from age 11 to age 16 we estimate the effect of this reform on the intergenerational income elasticity using a representative sample of males born between 1960 and 1966 the identification strategy relies on a differences in differences approach and exploits the fact that the reform was implemented gradually across the country during a six year period the results indicate that the reform reduced the intergenerational income elasticity by 23 from the pre reform elasticity of 0 30 to post reform elasticity of 0 23

general education versus vocational training evidence from an economy in transition abstract this paper examines the relative benefits of general education and vocational training during romania s transition to a market economy we examine a 1973 educational reform that shifted a large proportion of students from vocational training to general education using census and household survey data we analyze the effect of this policy with a regression discontinuity design we find that men affected by the policy are significantly less likely to work in manual or craft related occupations but have similar levels of labor market participation and earnings compared to their counterparts unaffected by the policy we conclude that differences in labor market returns between graduates of vocational and general schools are largely driven by selection

impossibility of exclusion and characteristics of public goods abstract this paper examines the impossibility of exclusion as an argument for public provision of otherwise private goods it is shown that governmental intervention can be supported only if the non existence of exclusion devices changes the character of the private good into that of a public good defined by non rivalry in consumption this will happen if the probability of getting a share of the good depends positively on the total amount provided departing from there a criterion is developed that defines economically efficient exclusion when consumption is rival the results are compared with some points raised in the discussion about public goods in the presence of congestion

the costs of bankruptcy chapter 7 liquidation versus chapter 11 reorganization our paper explores a comprehensive sample of small and large corporate bankruptcies in arizona and new york from 1995 to 2001 bankruptcy costs are very heterogeneous and sensitive to the measurement method used we find that chapter 7 liquidations appear to be no faster or cheaper in terms of direct expense than chapter 11 reorganizations however chapter 11 seems to preserve assets better thereby allowing creditors to recover relatively more our paper also provides a large number of further empirical regularities our paper analyzes the largest sample of corporate bankruptcies to date we research approximately 300 cases from the arizona and new york federal bankruptcy courts from 1995 to 2001 these cases consist of 1 both publicly traded and privately held corporations and 2 both chapter 7 liquidations and chapter 11 reorganizations this sample is practically the entire population of unique corporate bankruptcies in these courts our paper s primary objective is to measure how the two available bankruptcy procedures differ especially but not only in terms of cost we explore four variables namely the change in the estate s value during bankruptcy a measure of indirect costs the time spent in bankruptcy another and more common measure of indirect costs the expenses submitted to and approved by the bankruptcy court a measure of direct costs and the recovery rates for creditors and apr violations our most important findings are that chapter 7 liquidations are not cheaper than chapter 11 reorganizations particularly after we control for endogenous self selection of firms into bankruptcy procedure bankruptcy professionals attorneys accountants trustees regularly end up with most of the post bankruptcy firm s value in chapter 7 arturo bris is at imd yale school of management and ecgi ivo welch is at brown uni

a natural experiment in jeopardy this paper uses the television game show jeopardy as a natural experiment to analyze behavior under uncertainty and the ability of players to choose strategic best responses the results suggest that while most players bet in a rational manner the failure rate for choosing best responses increases as the betting problem grows more complex and that players choices are affected by the frame of the problem however suboptimal betting tends to decrease as inferior players are driven from the game the data also allow for estimation of the extent of risk aversion the results imply near risk neutrality jel c72 c93

the impact of nearly universal insurance coverage on health care utilization evidence from medicare the onset of medicare eligibility at age 65 leads to sharp changes in the health insurance coverage of the u s population these changes lead to increases in the use of medical services with a pattern of gains across socioeconomic groups that varies by type of service while routine doctor visits increase more for groups that previously lacked insurance hospital admissions for relatively expensive procedures like bypass surgery and joint replacement increase more for previously insured groups that are more likely to have supplementary coverage after 65 reflecting the relative generosity of their combined insurance package under medicare