a public choice perspective of imf and world bank lending and conditionality the paper explains imf and world banklending and conditionality stressingchanges in relative bargaining power ofdifferent stakeholders over time itapplies public choice theory to explain theinterests of the institutions memberstates its borrowers and staffs as well asprivate actors attaching their money to theifis programs using panel data for 43countries between 1987 99 it is shown thatthe number of fund conditions seems to beinfluenced by contemporaneous world bankactivity and bad policies

the new role for the world bank the world bank was founded to address what we would today call imperfections in international capital markets its founders thought that countries would borrow from the bank temporarily until they grew enough to borrow commercially nac 1946 p 312 black 1952 some critiques and analyses of the bank are based on the assumption that this continues to be its role for example some argue that the growth of private capital flows to the developing world has rendered the bank irrelevant however we will argue that modern analyses should proceed from the premise that the world bank s central goal is and should be to reduce extreme poverty and that addressing failures in global capital markets is now of subsidiary importance the bank s stated goal is reducing poverty the overwhelming majority of bank subsidies from its shareholder countries go to the international development association ida its arm for making grants and highly concessional loans to the lowest income countries the bank s greatest impact comes from its role in the dramatic policy changes many developing countries have undertaken in multiple sectors that most economists would consider likely to reduce poverty either by increasing growth or promoting equity why might donor countries choose to work through an international organization to advance the goal of reducing poverty effective aid often involves

competing models of international lending activity abstract four competing models of the world bank s lending to developing countries are constructed and econometrically estimated by pooled time series and cross section data the analysis suggests that a model combining economic and political determinants performs best besides per capita income inflation balance of payment and budget deficit external debt and past growth political determinants such as the capitalist climate or political instability are also important as well as a recipient country s former status as a colony or dominion this politico economic model is successfully used to forecast the distribution of ibrd loans and ida credits among the developing countries

when is foreign aid policy credible aid dependence and conditionality the author studies foreign aid policy within a principal agent framework he shows that one reason for foreign aid s poor overall record may be a moral hazard problem that shapes the aid recipient s incentive to undertake structural reform the model s basic prediction is a two way relationship disbursements of foreign aid are guided in part by the needs of the poor anticipating this recipients have little incentive to improve the welfare of the poor preliminary econometric work shows that the data support this hypothesis in principle conditionality could partly solve this problem but only if the donor can make a binding commitment to increase disbursements in good relative to bad states without such a commitment technology aid disbursements remain guided by the needs of the poor and recipient countries maintain a low effort to reduce poverty contrary to the conventional wisdom found in the aid literature the author shows that the welfare of all parties might be improved by using tied project aid or by delegating part of the aid budget to an international agency with less aversion to poverty

does multilateral lending aid capital accumulation role of intellectual capital and institutional quality abstract this paper investigates whether multilateral lending is more effective in accumulating capital in countries with a higher level of innovation specifically we examine the role of the world bank or imf financing on the capital stock using data from 175 countries over the period 1970 2017 while considering different types of long term external flows namely fdi and debt we find that fdi as a long term inflow influences domestic capital stock positively but non g7 countries even with a higher level of innovation are unable to benefit from greater fdi flows in boosting their capital stock which we explain considering institutional quality differences across countries with regard to foreign debt flows the multilateral lending only benefits the borrowing country if it has a greater level of intellectual capital or if those funds are used in financing innovative activities as opposed to short term imf loans world bank lending tends to be directed more towards long term development goals thereby helping boost productive capital exploiting a policy intervention with trips agreement the paper uncovers that countries with better institutional quality and greater innovation generate a higher level of capital stock

aid policy and growth in post conflict societies countries emerging from civil war attract both aid and policy advice this paper provides the first systematic empirical analysis of aid and policy reform in the post conflict growth process it is based on a comprehensive data set of large civil wars and covers 27 countries that were in their first decade of post conflict economic recovery during the 1990s the authors first investigate whether the absorptive capacity for aid is systematically different in post conflict countries they find that during the first three post conflict years absorptive capacity is no greater than normal but that in the rest of the first decade it is approximately double its normal level so ideally aid should phase in during the decade historically aid has not on average been higher in post conflict societies and it has tended to taper out over the course of the decade the authors then investigate whether the contribution of policy to growth is systematically different in post conflict countries and in particular whether particular components of policy are differentially important for this they use the world bank policy rating database the authors find that growth is more sensitive to policy in post conflict societies comparing the efficacy of different policies they find that social policies are differentially important relative to macroeconomic policies however historically this does not appear to have been how policy reform has been prioritized in post conflict societies

does conditionality work a test for an innovative us aid scheme performance based aid has been proposed as an alternative to the failed traditional approach whereby donors make aid conditional on the reform promises of recipient countries however hardly any empirical evidence exists on whether ex post rewards are effective in inducing reforms we attempt to fill this gap by investigating whether the millennium challenge corporation mcc was successful in promoting better control of corruption we employ a difference in difference in differences ddd approach considering different ways of defining the treatment group as well as different time periods during which incentive effects could have materialized we find evidence of strong anticipation effects immediately after the announcement of the mcc while increasing uncertainty about the timing and amount of mcc aid appears to have weakened the incentive to fight corruption over time

business models for model businesses lessons from renewable energy entrepreneurs in developing countries against the background of mounting research suggesting entrepreneurship as a means of increasing the uptake of renewable energy technologies rets in developing countries this paper presents the findings of an exploratory investigation into the business models used by renewable energy entrepreneurs in such countries forty three entrepreneurs were interviewed in 28 developing countries and secondary information about country and regional conditions was analysed we chose the business model canvas as an analytical tool and the findings shed new light on established renewable energy business types three different types of businesses were identified consultants distributors and integrators yet there is also some overlap between these types these business types appeared to parallel the life cycle progression of the business but this requires further research a key component of the study was to assess whether the types of businesses were related to country level conditions to assess the impact of regional differences these comparisons revealed consistencies between country level characteristics and the entrepreneurs choice of business model conclusions suggest that different regions may support certain business models more than others due to differing levels of government interest in renewables governance and policy support and the relative ease of doing business

coding error or statistical embellishment the political economy of reporting climate aid to benefit from a wide spread public support for climate policy aid agencies strive to show the climate relevance of their development activities using project level aid data and country level political data for 21 dac donors from 1995 to 2007 we test whether this may lead to politically motivated misreporting through keyword search in individual project descriptions and complementary hand coding we assess all aid activities for their actual climate change related content and thereby construct our most relevant control variables econometric results reveal that indeed project coding is influenced systematically by the donor governments ideological orientation as well as by national voters environmental preferences

timing and real indeterminacy in monetary models an increasingly common approach to the theoretical analysis of monetary policy is to ensure that a proposed policy does not introduce real indeterminacy and thus sunspot fluctuations into the model economy policy is typically conducted in terms of directives for the nominal interest rate this paper uses a discrete time money in the utility function model to demonstrate how seemingly minor modifications in the trading environment result in dramatic differences in the policy restrictions needed to ensure real determinacy these differences arise because of the differing pricing equations for the nominal interest rate

renewable energy in rural areas of developing countries as analysis of the energy situation in rural areas in developing countries has shown that the major cause of the prevailing energy crisis is the shortage of organic fuel biomass to cope with this crisis therefore technologies must be sought either to enhance biomass resources or to substitute for them as the majority of the population in rural areas are poor the technologies applied should not only meet energy needs they must also be geared to particular economic and sociocultural conditions technically efficient decentralized systems for the utilization of renewable energy can help in this by raising the availability of organic fuel resources biomass and meeting the demand for higher quality energy despite their advantages however there has as yet been no widespread dissemination of these technologies the main reasons for this are discussed and some precepts are presented upon which it is argued a strategy for overcoming these obstacles should be based

corporate governance at the world bank and the dilemma of global governance most major decisions at the world bank are made by its board of executive directors while some countries enjoy the opportunity to serve on this powerful body most countries rarely if ever get that chance this gives rise to the question does board membership lead to higher funding from the world bank s two main development financing institutions the international bank for reconstruction and development ibrd and the international development association ida empirical analysis shows that developing countries serving on the board can expect more than double the funding from the ibrd as countries not on the board in absolute terms countries on the board receive an average 60 million dollar bonus in ibrd loans an amount that rises in years when ibrd loans are in high demand particularly for countries in the most influential seats this effect is more likely driven by informal rules and norms in the boardroom than by the power of the vote itself no significant effect is found in ida funding these results point to challenges of global governance through representative institutions

nominal price rigidity money supply endogeneity and business cycles abstract this paper investigates the ability of nominal price rigidity to explain the co movement of inflation with the cyclical component of output observed in the post war u s data a dynamic general equilibrium model is constructed with the introduction of monopolistic competition and nominal price rigidity in a standard real business cycle model allowing for an endogenous money supply rule it is then demonstrated that sticky price models can explain the observed associations between movements in inflation and output much better than flexible price models this result depends little on whether money supply is assumed to be endogenous or not

does foreign aid really raise per capita income a time series perspective we analyze the relationship between per capita income and foreign aid we employ annual data and five year averages and carefully examine the time series properties of the data panel estimations with dynamic feasible generalized least squares dfgls show that aid generally has an insignificant or minute negative significant impact on per capita income particularly in highly aid dependent countries this holds true for countries with different levels of human development and income as well as for different regions we also find that aid has a small positive impact on investment but a significant negative impact on domestic savings crowding out and the real exchange rate appreciation jel classification f35 o11 c23 c51 on analyse la relation entre le revenu per capita et l aide etrangere on utilise des donnees annuelles et des moyennes quinquennales et on examine les proprietes de ces series chronologiques des estimations d un modele dynamique utilisant des donnees de panel a l aide de la methode des moindres carres quasi generalises montrent que l aide a generalement un effet negatif minime ou insignifiant sur le revenu per capita particulierement dans les pays qui dependent beaucoup de l aide etrangere ce resultat tient tant pour des pays a divers niveaux de developpement et de revenus que pour differentes regions on decouvre que l aide a un petit effet positif sur l investissement mais un effet negatif significatif sur l epargne effet d encombrement et sur le taux de change reel appreciation

counterpart funding requirements and the foreign aid procyclicality puzzle official development assistance is a key source of external finance in many developing countries a striking feature of these aid flows is their positive correlation with business cycles in recipient countries this pattern is puzzling in that it reinforces recipients already strong and costly macroeconomic fluctuations we propose a simple model of investment financing and aid provision under asymmetric information that rationalizes such a pattern we assume that donor agencies and recipient governments value projects differently and that donors know less than recipients do about project characteristics we show that donors can make a recipient government identify high return projects by requiring that the latter contribute some of its own funds to projects providing these matching grants or counterpart funds is less affordable for recipients during economic downturns which leads to aid procyclicality our model produces aid contracts consistent with those used by aid agencies rationalizes observed aid patterns and yields a rich set of testable empirical predictions

why conditional aid does not work and what can be done about it abstract this paper studies a simple reform that introduces ex post incentives for the donor to reward good policies contrary to existing practices instead of committing aid to each recipient ex ante and making aid conditional on reform the donor centralizes the disbursement decision by committing aid to a group of countries the actual amount disbursed to each individual country would depend on its relative performance this explicit linkage of the allocation and disbursement decisions has two important advantages as compared to present practices first it raises the opportunity cost of disbursing aid ex post thereby giving the donor stronger incentives to reward good policies second competition among recipients allows the donor to make inferences about common shocks which otherwise conceal the recipient s choice of action this enables the donor to give aid more efficiently

aid allocation by german ngos does the degree of official financing matter using a new data set for 41 german non governmental organisations ngos we analyse the allocation of ngo aid across recipient countries in a tobit regression framework by identifying for each ngo the degree of official financing we address the largely unresolved issue of whether financial dependence on the government impairs the targeting of ngo aid it turns out that german ngos are more active in poorer countries while they do not complement official aid by working under difficult local conditions beyond a certain threshold rising financial dependence weakens their poverty orientation and provides an incentive to engage in easier environments in addition we find that the ngos follow the state as well as ngo peers when allocating aid this herding behaviour is however hardly affected by the degree of official financing

what is challenging renewable energy entrepreneurs in developing countries this paper cumulates the findings from a review of the challenges faced by renewable energy entrepreneurs in developing countries to date research that could facilitate the success of renewable energy entrepreneurs in the world s developing regions has been fragmented across two main bodies of literature management specifically entrepreneurship and renewable energy by conducting a qualitative review of the extant literature i propose that the findings from both bodies of research may be distilled to six 6 key challenges inadequate access to institutional finance the price of renewable energy technologies rets the lack of skilled labour underdeveloped physical infrastructure and logistics power dominance of incumbents inadequate government or policy support through this research i not only advance a unified conceptualisation of the challenges faced by renewable energy entrepreneurs in developing countries but also highlight a number of the revealed opportunities for future research

the political economy of imf lending in africa why has imf lending achieved such poor results in africa is it because the fund imposes the wrong conditions or because it fails to enforce them analysis of monthly data on 53 african countries from 1990 to 2000 shows that the imf s loans for reform contract lacks credibility because donor countries intervene to prevent rigorous enforcement countries that have influence with developed country patrons as measured by u s foreign aid membership in postcolonial international institutions and voting profiles in the un are subject to less rigorous enforcement shorter program suspensions they have more frequent program suspensions because they violate their conditions more often the imf will have to become more independent in order to become an effective champion of reform

us politics and world bank ida lending this paper studies the role of us political factors in the allocation of world bank concessional lending where us political interests are proxied by voting similarity in the united nations general assembly on issues identified as important by the us department of state in contrast to previous studies we find that the us exerted a significant influence on ida lending during the period 1993 2000 we demonstrate that the influence was both statistically as well as economically significant finally we demonstrate that our result is robust with respect to the omission of the ida country performance rating index

rural electrification in the developing world abstract rural electrification does not cause development electricity is a derived demand occurring only when an area has reached a certain economic level this has important consequences for the choice of areas for electrification rural electrification subsidies are generally excessive and tariffs need to be greatly increased renewable energy sources should be analysed on the same technical and economic basis as conventional supply systems particular care is required when considering photovoltaic systems for pre electrification community management may provide a means of electricity supply for some villages but the key questions are likely to be institutional and managerial rather than technical

the perversity of preferences gsp and developing country trade policies 1976 2000 industrial countries maintain special tariff preferences namely the generalized system of preferences gsp for imports from developing countries critics have highlighted the underachieving nature of such preferences but developing countries continue to place the gsp at the heart of their agenda in multilateral negotiations what effect do such preferences have on a recipient s own trade policies the authors develop and test a simple theoretical model of a small country s trade policy choice using a dataset of 154 developing countries from 1976 through 2000 they find that countries removed from the gsp adopt more liberal trade policies than those remaining eligible the results corrected for endogeneity and robust to numerous alternative measures of trade policy suggest that developing countries may be best served by full integration into the reciprocity based world trade regime rather than continued gsp style special preferences

labor market frictions indeterminacy and interest rate rules this paper studies the emergence of indeterminate equilibria in a standard new keynesian model characterized by labor market frictions under a policy rule that reacts strictly to inflation given labor market frictions monetary policy may not be able to prevent aggregate fluctuations from being driven solely by self fulfilling expectations this is not though a result that holds under all circumstances a monetary policy that reacts to some average measures of inflation or to the output gap may guarantee determinacy in the economy

the high politics of imf lending analysts have long suspected that politics affects the lending patterns of the international monetary fund imf but none have adequately specified or systematically tested competing explanations this paper develops a political explanation of imf lending and tests it statistically on the developing countries between 1985 and 1994 it finds that political realignment toward the united states the largest power in the imf increases a country s probability of receiving an imf loan a country s static political alignment position has no significant impact during this period suggesting that these processes are best modeled dynamically an analysis of two subsamples rejects the hypothesis that the imf has become less politicized since the end of the cold war and suggests that the influence of politics has actually increased since 1990 the behavior of multilateral organizations is still driven by the political interests of their more powerful member states

on us politics and imf lending abstract the political factors shaping imf lending to developing countries have attracted attention in recent empirical work this goes in particular for the role and influence of the us however scant formal modelling makes interpretation of empirical results difficult in this paper we propose a model in which the us acts as principal within the imf and seeks to maximize its impact on the policy stance of debtor countries we derive an optimal loan allocation mechanism which leads to the testable hypothesis that the probability of an imf loan is increasing in the amount of political concessions countries make a political concession is defined as the distance between a country s bliss point and its actual policy stance measured relative to the us we introduce a bliss point proxy and demonstrate that our hypothesis is strongly supported in the data moreover we show that not accounting for bliss points may lead to endogeneity bias in empirical work

inducing efficiency in the use of foreign aid the case for incentive mechanisms in this article we point out that one of the main problems in foreign aid allocation is the efficient use of these funds as resources available for foreign aid are intrinsically scarce their efficient use would be in the interest of donors and especially recipient countries the aim of this paper is to show how it is possible to design incentive schemes which by relating the allocation of aid to the way it is used may induce the recipient country to use these resources appropriately we discuss potential benefits and problems of different contractual forms showing how comparing the performances of different countries may help to design optimal incentive mechanisms finally we illustrate a proposal of performance conditioning of the grant element which may help in tackling the efficiency problem

news droughts news floods and u s disaster relief this paper studies the influence of mass media on u s government response to approximately 5 000 natural disasters occurring between 1968 and 2002 these disasters took nearly 63 000 lives and affected 125 million people per year we show that u s relief depends on whether the disaster occurs at the same time as other newsworthy events such as the olympic games which are obviously unrelated to need we argue that the only plausible explanation of this is that relief decisions are driven by news coverage of disasters and that the other newsworthy material crowds out this news coverage

the political economy of conditionality an empirical analysis of world bank loan disbursements abstract traditional aid conditionality has been attacked as ineffective in part because aid agencies notably the world bank often fail to enforce conditions this pattern undermines the credibility of conditionality weakening incentives to implement policy reforms the standard critique attributes this time inconsistency to bureaucratic factors within the aid agency such as pressure to lend defensive lending or short sighted altruism pressure from powerful donors provides another potential explanation for lax enforcement this paper presents an empirical analysis of the political economy of conditionality in international organizations using the case of the world bank and the united states the analysis examines panel data on world bank disbursements to 97 countries receiving structural adjustment loans between 1984 and 2005 using un voting as an indicator of alignment with the u s the paper presents evidence that world bank structural adjustment loan disbursements are less dependent on macroeconomic performance in countries aligned with the united states

independent actor or agent an empirical analysis of the impact of u s interests on international monetary fund conditions abstract in this paper we analyze whether international monetary fund imf conditionality is exclusively designed to be in line with observable economic indicators or whether it is partly driven by the imf s major shareholder the united states a panel data analysis of 206 letters of intent from 38 countries submitted during the period april 1997 through february 2003 revealed that the number of conditions on an imf loan depended on a borrowing country s voting pattern in the un general assembly closer allies of the united states and other group of 7 g7 countries received imf loans with fewer conditions especially prior to elections these results are relevant to current public policy debates on the role and process of setting imf loan conditions and provide broader insight into the influence of the united states and other g7 countries on international institutions

global horse trading imf loans for votes in the united nations security council we investigate whether temporary members of the united nations security council receive favorable treatment from the international monetary fund imf using panel data for 197 countries over the period from 1951 to 2004 our results indicate a robust positive relationship between temporary security council membership and participation in imf programs even after accounting for economic political and country specific factors there is also evidence that security council membership reduces the number of conditions included in imf programs imf loans seem to be a mechanism by which the major shareholders of the fund can win favor with voting members of the security council

investment and interest rate policy a discrete time analysis this paper analyzes the restrictions necessary to ensure that the interest rate policy rule used by the central bank does not introduce local real indeterminacy into the economy it conducts the analysis in a calvo style sticky price model a key innovation is to add investment spending to the analysis in this environment local real indeterminacy is much more likely in particular all forward looking interest rate rules are subject to real indeterminacy

endogenous business cycles with frictional labour markets we present a neoclassical model of capital accumulation with frictional labour markets under standard parameter values the equilibrium of the model is indeterminate and consequently displays expectations driven business cycles so called endogenous business cycles we study the properties of such cycles and find that the model predicts the high autocorrelation in output growth and the hump shaped impulse response of output found in us data important features that existing endogenous real business cycle models fail to explain the indeterminacy of the equilibrium stems from job search externalities and does not rely on increasing returns to scale as in most models

shopping for development multilateral lending shareholder composition and borrower preferences this paper proposes two theoretical considerations regarding multilateral development banks mdbs the first is that mdb activities are increasingly driven by the growing economic strength of many developing countries the second is that categorizing mdbs according to the balance of power among shareholders helps explain why countries might prefer one or another mdb we compare three different mdbs operating in latin america one dominated by nonborrowers world bank another controlled by borrowing countries andean development corporation caf and a third more evenly split between borrowers and nonborrowers inter american development bank iadb qualitative and statistical analysis suggests that demand factors play an important role in mdb lending

more dollars than sense refining our knowledge of development finance using aiddata summary in this introductory essay to the special issue we introduce a new dataset of foreign assistance aiddata that covers more bilateral and multilateral donors and more types of aid than existing datasets while also improving project level information about the purposes and activities funded by aid we utilize that data to provide a brief overview of important trends in foreign aid contributors to this special issue draw on aiddata as well as other sources to analyze aid transparency new donors not previously described or analyzed aid allocation and aid effectiveness our recurring theme in this introductory essay is that aiddata and these initial academic projects refine rather than revolutionize our understanding of aid the database has added significant numbers of new projects dollar amounts donors and details about those projects though there is much more yet to add we worry that aid debates have been driven by too little information and that many claims are based on limited or very poor evidence rectifying these problems will not be instantaneous refining knowledge takes a lot of time and hard work the common feature of the papers in this special issue is their careful attention to nuance and detail in spite of what some recent authors have claimed aid is neither a simple solution nor a sufficient cause of most problems in developing countries its motivations distribution and effects are complex and shifting capturing this complexity requires detailed data careful thought and sophisticated methods that allow scholars to make conditional causal and descriptive inferences 2011 elsevier ltd all rights reserved

conditionalities and the performance of european structural funds a principal agent analysis of control mechanisms in eu cohesion policy bachtler j and ferry m conditionalities and the performance of european structural funds a principal agent analysis of control mechanisms in european union cohesion policy regional studies in the context of debates on the performance of european union cohesion policy this paper considers how the european union has used control mechanisms to influence the use of structural funds by member states using the principal agent model this paper examines empirically three case studies of conditionalities applied to the absorption of funding decommitment rule outcomes of interventions performance reserve and targeting of expenditure earmarking in european union programmes over the 2000 2013 period the findings reveal different levels of effectiveness of the three conditionalities attributable to the differential scope for trade offs during the regulatory negotiations external pressure and principal self interest the paper discusses an effectiveness threshold for introducing controls the tensions