calculated inequality portfolio benchmarking and regional office property investment in the uk the paper explores the reasons for the persistence in the uk of significant relative interregional variations in office property investment in the face of economic theory and empirical evidence that would support its more even spatial distribution the argument is made from a cultural economy perspective and involves the application to property of a concept drawn from the accountancy literature calculative practice uk investment decision making is distinguished by the primacy attributed to portfolio benchmarking as an influence on investment strategy the wider logic underpinning property benchmarking is subjected to critical appraisal then evidence is presented that suggests that benchmarking is a self referential practice which results in convergence and rigidity in fund structures and in the concentration of performance around a bounded range of sub optimal returns it is a barrier to the greater geographical diversification of office property investment

revisiting the exchange rate disconnect puzzle abstractone of the major anomalies in international macroeconomics is the persistent finding that the exchange rate has no empirical relationship with a variety of macroeconomic fundamentals dubbed the exchange rate disconnect puzzle this article examines this issue for five australian dollar bilateral exchange rates using quarterly data for the period 1984 1 2015 4 a novel feature of this article is that it departs from the extant literature by using a different approach to testing for cointegration the results show that the exchange rates and fundamentals move together in the long run furthermore the results show that fundamentals granger cause exchange rates both in the short run and the long run

bidding conventions and the degree of overpricing in the market for houses how do buyers decide whether a property is overpriced do they base their judgement on the simple difference between the asking price and expected selling price or do they take into account local bidding conventions the typical asking selling price spread in the neighbourhood this paper explores the implications of bidding conventions for the definition and measurement of the degree of overpricing and the effect this has on a survival model of time on the market the paper also considers the impact of uncertainty and employs fractional polynomial regression to explore whether spatio temporal variations in attribute prices affect market perceptions of overpricing

third country effects on the exchange rate abstract predictive regressions for bilateral exchange rates are typically run on variables from the associated bilateral pairs of countries these regressions characteristically have low explanatory power which leaves room for an omitted variables interpretation we test whether these omitted variables are from third countries when third country macro factors are added to bilateral exchange rate regressions they enter significantly and increase the adjusted r 2 a three country exchange rate model illustrates potential channels for third country spillovers to affect the bilateral rate

global microstructures the virtual societies of financial markets using participant observation data interviews and trading transcripts drawn from interbank currency trading in global investment banks this article examines regular patterns of integration that characterize the global social system embedded in economic transactions to interpret these patterns which are global in scope but microsocial in character this article uses the term global microstructures features of the interaction order loosely defined have become constitutive of and implanted in processes that have global breadth this study draws on schutz in the development of the concept of temporal coordination as the basis for the level of intersubjectivity discerned in global markets this article contributes to economic sociology through the analysis of cambist i e trading markets which are distinguished from producer markets and by positing a form of market coordination that supplements relational or network forms of coordination

social behaviour as a basis for modelling the urban housing market a review this paper considers how empirical models of urban housing markets might be constructed as a basis for policy analysis it is suggested that this is fundamentally more difficult than national or re

evaluating the predictability of exchange rates using long horizon regressions mind your p s and q s since the breakdown of the bretton woods agreement researchers have used a wide variety of structural models to try to predict exchange rate movements unfortunately finding consistent evidence that these models outperform a random walk has proven elusive in this paper we investigate the impact different methods of inference may have had on these conclusions using p values based on recently developed tests of forecast accuracy and encompassing as well as q values designed to mitigate multiple testing problems we provide stronger evidence consistent with these models having superior predictive ability our results suggest that previous studies inability to detect predictive ability may have been influenced by the statistics used and the manner in which they were employed

tests for parameter instability in regressions with i 1 processes this article derives the large sample distributions of lagrange multiplier lm tests for parameter instability against several alternatives of interest in the context of cointegrated regression models the fully modified estimator of phillips and hansen is extended to cover general models with stochastic and deterministic trends the test statistics considered include the supf test of quandt as well as the lm tests of nyblom and of nabeya and tanaka it is found that the asymptotic distributions depend on the nature of the regressor processes that is if the regressors are stochastic or deterministic trends the distributions are noticeably different from the distributions when the data are weakly dependent it is also found that the lack of cointegration is a special case of the alternative hypothesis considered an unstable intercept so the tests proposed here may also be viewed as a test of the null of cointegration against the alternative of no cointegration the tests are applied to three data se

interest rates and currency prices in a two country world abstract this paper is a theoretical study of the determination of prices interest rates and currency exchange rates set in an infinitely lived two country world which is subject both to stochastic endowment shocks and to monetary instability formulas are obtained for pricing all equity claims nominally denominated bonds and currencies and these formulas are related to earlier closely related results in the theories of money finance international trade

potential pitfalls for the purchasing power parity puzzle sampling and specification biases in mean reversion tests of the law of one price the ppp puzzle is based on empirical evidence that international price differences for individual goods loop or baskets of goods ppp appear highly persistent or even nonstationary the present consensus is these price differences have a half life that is of the order of five years at best and infinity at worst this seems unreasonable in a world where transportation and transaction costs appear so low as to encourage arbitrage and the convergence of price gaps over much shorter horizons typically days or weeks however current empirics rely on a particular choice of methodology involving i relatively low frequency monthly quarterly or annual data and ii a linear model specification in fact these methodological choices are not innocent and they can be shown to bias analysis towards findings of slow convergence and a random walk intuitively if we suspect that the actual adjustment horizon is of the order of days then monthly and annual data cannot be expected to reveal it if we suspect arbitrage costs are high enough to produce a substantial band of inaction then a linear model will fail to support convergence if the process spends considerable time random walking in that band thus when testing for ppp or loop model specification and data sampling should not proceed without consideration of the actual institutional context and logistical framework of markets

monetary fundamentals and exchange rate dynamics under different nominal regimes we investigate the dynamic relationship between the us dollar exchange rate and its fundamentals across different exchange rate regimes using data going back to the late 1800s or early 1900s for six industrialized countries for these countries there is evidence of a long run relation between the nominal exchange rate and monetary fundamentals consistent with conventional theories of exchange rate determination we employ a markov switching vector equilibrium correction model that allows for regime shifts in the entire set of parameters and the variance covariance matrix our results suggest that the relative importance of exchange rates and fundamentals in restoring the long run equilibrium level implied by the exchange rate monetary fundamentals model varies significantly over time and is affected by the nominal exchange rate regime in operation

purchasing power parity and unit root tests using panel data abstract this paper reports the results of unit root tests for real exchange rates using a panel framework this panel approach provides greatly improved power compared to conventional univariate time series unit root tests we obtain evidence supporting ppp over the recent flexible exchange rate period for g 6 and oecd countries we show explicitly that failure to find such evidence in previous research was due to the low power of the tests

testing the monetary model of exchange rate determination new evidence from a century of data abstract we test the long run monetary model of exchange rate determination for a collection of 14 industrialized countries using data spanning the late nineteenth or early twentieth century to the late twentieth century interestingly we find support for a simple form of the long run monetary model in over half of the countries we consider for these countries we estimate vector error correction models to investigate the adjustment process to the long run monetary equilibrium in the spirit of meese and rogoff journal of international economics 14 1983 3 24 we also compare nominal exchange rate forecasts based on monetary fundamentals to those based on a naive random walk model

empowering change the effects of energy provision on individual aspirations in slum communities this paper discusses the role of energy provision in influencing the social aspirations of people living in slums we examine factors that influence the shift in aspirations in five slum settlements using data from 500 interviews conducted in serviced and non serviced slums from the state of gujarat in india the non serviced slums did not have access to basic services namely water sanitation energy roads solid waste and rainwater management we find empirical evidence which suggests that when basic infrastructure provisions are met slum dwellers shift their focus from lower order aspirations to the higher order aspirations like health education housing and land ownership we argue that energy provision enhances productivity and enables slum dwellers to shift their aspirations upwards furthermore we test the effect of work days lost due to illness on the relationship between higher order aspirations and aspirations for energy provision when provision of energy is low higher work day loss dampens higher order aspirations for policy makers this study highlights the critical link between the infrastructure services preferred by slum dwellers and their social aspirations for growth

real exchange rates in the short medium and long run abstract this paper uses long horizon autocorrelations and variance ratio statistics to test for long term mean reversion in real exchange rates unlike most previous tests of this hypothesis the tests do reject a random walk for monthly data in the post bretton woods era however the statistics indicate that positively correlated innovations rather than mean reversion are the source of the rejection tests using annual data for the twentieth century also reject the random walk in this case however the rejection can be attributed to mean reversion and confirms that ppp is a long term phenomenon

money stock versus monetary base in time frequency exchange rate determination abstract this study uses a time frequency analysis to provide empirical evidence of the changing role of the money supply in the determination of the japanese yen u s dollar exchange rate we demonstrate that in the short run money supply has a stable significant effect on the exchange rate only after the introduction of quantitative easing policies together with a remarkable difference between the money stock and the monetary base under quantitative easing policies while money stock has a limited role at best in short run exchange rate dynamics increases in the monetary base cause the currency to depreciate in the short run the notable role of the monetary base remains exceptionally stable over time only in quantitative easing regimes while the exchange rate is unstably connected to other fundamentals moreover in the long run the monetary base outperforms the money stock in explaining the exchange rate in general lastly the growing role of the monetary base is shown to be robust to several checks

marginal welfare measures for discrete choice models abstract this letter deals with the use of discrete choice models for applied welfare analysis an approximate formula is presented for the marginal willingness to pay for a change in the attributes of any of the discrete alternatives which is simple to calculate and has an intuitive interpretation

are real exchange rates nonstationary evidence from a panel data test it is well documented that real exchange rates between the united states and many industrialized countries in the post bretton woods period are integrated this result implies that purchasing power parity ppp does not hold even as a long run relationship this paper demonstrates that the failure to reject the unit root hypothesis may result from the low power of existing univariate test procedures i test for unit roots in real exchange rates by employing a more powerful panel based procedure using both cpi and wpi real dollar exchange rate data i strongly reject the null hypothesis of a unit root my results provide overwhelming support for the long run ppp under the current float copyright 1996 by ohio state university press

institutions in british property research a review this paper surveys approaches to the study of institutions as used in recent commercial property research in britain institutional analysis can be approached from mainstream economics power str

testing the monetary model of exchange rate determination a closer look at panels abstract in this paper we undertake an extensive evaluation of panel tests of the long run monetary model of exchange rate determination we first show how poorly the monetary model performs on a country by country basis for us dollar exchange rates over the post bretton woods period for a large number of industrialized countries in sharp contrast we find considerable support for the monetary model using panel procedures as in groen 2000 and mark and sul 2001 given the disparity in the country by country and panel approaches we carefully analyze the homogeneity restrictions inherent in the panel procedures the evidence on the appropriateness of the homogeneity restrictions is mixed in the end whether the monetary model conforms to post bretton woods data largely depends on one s prior beliefs

real exchange rate behavior the recent float from the perspective of the past two centuries using annual data spanning two centuries for dollar sterling and franc sterling real exchange rates we find strong evidence of mean reverting real exchange rate behavior using simple stationary autoregressive models estimated on prefloat data we easily outperform nonstationary real exchange rate models in dynamic forecasting exercises over the recent float such stationary univariate equations explain 60 80 percent of the in sample variation in real exchange rates although the degree of short run persistence may be high the econometric estimates imply a half life of shocks to the real exchange rate of about 6 years for dollar sterling and a little under 3 years for franc sterling

testing for bubbles in exchange markets a case of sparkling rates this paper investigates the possibility that the observed deviations of major bilateral exchange rates from values implied by market fundamentals are a consequence of rational asset market bubbles when a new econometric methodology for detecting asset market bubbles is used the joint hypothesis of no bubbles and stable autoregressive processes for relative money supplies and real incomes is rejected for the dollar deutsche mark and dollar pound ratesusing monthly data over the period 1973 82 additional tests for coefficient stability and for lack of cointegration between exchange rates and market fundamentals suggest that the bubble findings must be interpreted with care

a framework for housing market area delineation principles and application a review is presented of the requirements of a framework for the delineation of housing market areas hmas in the context of undertaking a housing market assessment this prompts adoption of a methodology that features an iterative application of information obtained from estate agents to identify hma cores and a functional regionalisation of 2001 census interward migration flows the approach is demonstrated using data for north west england the concluding section explores some implications of the hma framework for policy and future research

measuring the welfare effects of slum improvement programs the case of mumbai this paper evaluates the welfare effects of in situ slum upgrading and relocation programs using data for 5000 households in mumbai india we estimate a model of residential location choice in which households value the ethnic composition of neighborhoods and employment accessibility in addition to housing characteristics the importance of neighborhood composition and employment access implies that relocation programs must be designed carefully if they are to be welfare enhancing the value of our model is that it allows us to determine the magnitude of these effects it also allows us to determine the value households place on in situ improvements which policymakers need to know if they are to design housing programs that permit cost recovery

buyer exuberance and price premium it has been demonstrated that the real estate market disciplines irrational price premiums however the persistence of price premiums begs the question of what causes price premiums in the first place this paper seeks to examine two explanations for price premiums the conventional information asymmetry explanation and the buyer exuberance explanation as motivated by behavioural studies the results show that information asymmetry explains price premiums and this finding is robust across two sub hypotheses tested namely information differences arising from market familiarity and product characteristics in addition we find that price premiums are also caused by buyer exuberance specifically exuberance arising from representativeness purchasing power and anchoring effects

price level co movements within currency unions an alternative integration metric this paper analyses currency union integration by testing whether price levels in member countries possess a common stochastic trend the trace statistic test for cointegration proposed by johansen 1995 demonstrates the presence of such a trend for most unions a disaggregated analysis identifies a common stochastic trend for several though fewer than half of country pairs within a union some unions such as the eurozone have small shares of cointegrated country pairs yet the share of cointegrated country pairs is large relative to countries outside currency unions comparison to a control group country pairs where one country belongs to a given union and the other country does not indicates that the cointegration found within a currency union is a union specific trait and not a feature of the individual countries within the union these results provide an alternative metric to intraunion trade for gauging the extent of currency union integration

oil price fluctuations and u s dollar exchange rates adding oil prices to the monetary model of exchange rates we find that oil prices significantly explain movements in the value of the u s dollar usd against major currencies from the 1970s to 2008 our long run and forecasting results are remarkably consistent with an oil exchange rate relationship increases in real oil prices lead to a significant depreciation of the usd against net oil exporter currencies such as canada mexico and russia on the other hand the currencies of oil importers such as japan depreciate relative to the usd when the real oil price goes up

implications of alternate policies on welfare of slum dwellers evidence from pune india abstract in this paper we examine how slum dwellers value location based amenities in most developing country cities residents living in slums have poor quality dwellings and limited access to basic public services and amenities using data from pune india we estimate the residential location choices of slum dwellers which are conditional on housing quality neighborhood amenities and community structure we use these estimates to simulate the impact of alternate interventions on household welfare we find that households derive benefits from housing quality and neighborhood amenities while relocating households to the periphery has adverse consequences for household welfare we show that households could be adequately compensated out of the increased tax revenue accruing from alternative uses of the vacated central land

infrastructure provision gender and poverty in indian slums we examine the relationship between infrastructure provision and poverty alleviation by analyzing 500 interviews conducted in serviced and non serviced slums in india using a mixed method approach of qualitative analysis and regression modeling we find that infrastructure was associated with a 66 increase in education among females service provision increased literacy by 62 enhanced income by 36 and reduced health costs by 26 evidence suggests that a gender sensitive consideration of infrastructure is necessary and that a one size fits all approach will not suffice we provide evidence that infrastructure investment is critical for well being of slum dwellers and women in particular

the monetary exchange rate model as a long run phenomenon abstract pure time series based tests fail to find empirical support for monetary exchange rate models in this paper we apply pooled time series estimation on a forward looking monetary model resulting in parameter estimates which are in compliance with the underlying theory based on a panel version of the engle and granger engle r f granger c w j 1987 co integration and error correction representation estimation and testing econometrica 55 251 276 two step procedure we find that the residuals of the panel based estimated monetary model are stationary this indicates that on a pooled time series level there is cointegration between the exchange rate and the macroeconomic fundamentals of this monetary model

exchange rate predictability the main goal of this article is to provide an answer to the question does anything forecast exchange rates and if so which variables it is well known that exchange rate fluctuations are very difficult to predict using economic models and that a random walk forecasts exchange rates better than any economic model the meese and rogoff puzzle however the recent literature has identified a series of fundamentals methodologies that claim to have resolved the puzzle this article provides a critical review of the recent literature on exchange rate forecasting and illustrates the new methodologies and fundamentals that have been recently proposed in an up to date thorough empirical analysis overall our analysis of the literature and the data suggests that the answer to the question are exchange rates predictable is it depends on the choice of predictor forecast horizon sample period model and forecast evaluation method predictability is most apparent when one or more of the following hold the predictors are taylor rule or net foreign assets the model is linear and a small number of parameters are estimated the toughest benchmark is the random walk without drift

cointegration how short is the long run abstract when testing for cointegration and faced with short sample periods it is common for researchers to turn to more frequently sampled observations that is to move from annual to quarterly or monthly data in order to increase the number of observations we argue that such a gain in the degrees of freedom is more apparent than real essentially cointegration is a long run concept and hence requires long spans of data to give tests for cointegration much power rather than merely large numbers of observations using monte carlo simulations we demonstrate this for four popular tests for cointegration

performing housing markets this paper offers an interpretation of how housing markets work which complements more traditional economic approaches building on a wider movement within cultural economy and economic sociology it considers how housing markets are variously performed in the power filled negotiations of buyers sellers and market professionals this is part of a larger undertaking but here the focus is particularly on the role of legal financial and information intermediaries in shaping local cultures of property exchange this is a social rather than economic analysis of housing markets it is a qualitative rather than a quantitative study it is designed to shed light on how markets are made though it might in the end change the way they are modelled

a statistical explanation for extreme bids in the house market this paper proposes a simple statistical explanation for the phenomenon of extreme bids during a boom the housing market regime switches from a single bidder to a multiple bidder environment the sale price in a multiple bidder auction is the maximum bid and the distribution of maximum bids contains a much higher proportion of extreme bids compared with the distribution of single bidder valuations while this theory does not preclude behavioural explanations of extreme bids it does demonstrate that a world free from strategic and idiosyncratic behaviour would not be a world free from extreme bids during boom periods therefore when gauging the impact of strategic or idiosyncratic behaviour either hypothetically or empirically one has to measure the effect against a baseline regime where extreme bids are inevitable not against a world that is free from extreme bids

there is no free house abstract this paper estimates the effect of a housing relocation program on the labor supply and living conditions of low income households across major cities in south africa using panel microdata collected between 2008 and 2014 it exploits the arbitrary eligibility rules of the policy with a fuzzy regression discontinuity design to obtain reduced form estimates there are three main findings first in the short term of 2 to 4 years following relocation the labor supply of recipient households decreases driven mostly by a reduction of female hours second the large increase in distance km to economic opportunities seems to be an important factor behind the decline directly or indirectly through family shifts in earning strategies finally evidence is limited regarding improvements in housing and neighborhood quality overall there is no clear indication that the net welfare effect of relocation is positive

co integration tests for long run equilibrium in the monetary exchange rate model abstract the monetary model of exchange rate determination is tested as a long run equilibrium relation tests of co integration among the variables in this model over a wide range of specifications are generally unfavorable to the monetary approach

globalisation and housing finance systems in advanced and transition economies globalisation is only the most recent manifestation of convergence theory this article shows how distinctive housing finance systems in the advanced economies contribute to distinctive housing systems with important social and economic implications it also suggests that the evidence from the european union confirms what can be derived from a priori reasoning that mobility of finance does not alter the nationally based components of the wider housing finance system hence even huge changes in the nature of intermediaries fail to alter the fundamental nature of the mortgage product combined with lack of any evidence to suggest that government support for home ownership is in general or irreversible retreat it is suggested that the former socialist transition countries have considerably more opportunity to shape their housing finance systems than might be suggested by convergence theory

purchasing power parity over two centuries strengthening the case for real exchange rate stability a reply to cuddington and liang cuddington and liang 2000 purchasing power parity over two centuries journal of international money and finance 19 751 755 examine the long span of sterling dollar real exchange rate data of lothian and taylor 1996 real exchange rate behavior the recent float from the perspective of the past two centuries journal of political economy 104 488 509 and claim to reject long run purchasing power parity by fitting time trends or by considering very high order autoregresssive representations this reply demonstrates however that the central claims of lothian and taylor are in fact strengthened by the implications of cuddington and liang s analysis in that while the economic importance of introducing trend terms is slight this leads to a faster estimated speed of mean reversion c 2000 elsevier science ltd all rights reserved jel classification f31 f41 c22

tests of the different variants of the monetary model in a developing economy malaysian experience in the pre and post crisis periods this study examines the validity of four different variants of the monetary model of exchange rate determination for malaysia covering both the pre and post crisis periods using the vector error correction models the findings demonstrate that for both periods the variables used are cointegrated tests tend to suggest that of the four variants of monetary model the sticky price model holds in both periods and the flexible price model holds only in the post crisis period the proportionality between the exchange rate and relative money does not hold in any period the plotted actual and fitted exchange rates for both sub samples show that the models are able to track the actual exchange rate trend quiet well

a panel project on purchasing power parity mean reversion within and between countries abstract previous time series studies have shown evidence of mean reversion in real exchange rates deviations from purchasing power parity ppp appear to have half lives of approximately four years however the long samples required for statistical significance are unavailable for most currencies and are potentially inappropriate because of regime changes in this study we re examine deviations from ppp using a panel of 150 countries and 45 annual post wwii observations our panel shows strong evidence of mean reversion that is similar to that from long time series ppp deviations are eroded at a rate of approximately 15 annually i e their half life is around four years such findings can be masked in time series data but are relatively easy to find in cross sections

the failure of the monetary exchange rate model for the canadian u s dollar in this paper the validity of the monetary exchange rate model in the long run for the canadian u s dollar exchange rate is examined the primary test employed is the johansen 1991 and johansen and juselius 1990 cointegration technique the effects of dummy variables and lag specification on the statistical inference are considered and monte carlo simulations based on the estimated parameters are employed despite the use of the longest data set yet for the canadian case no evidence is found in favour of the monetary exchange rate model using the johansen procedures this result is confirmed by several other cointegration procedures jel classification f31 f41 la faillite du modele monetaire du taux de change pour les dollars canadien et americain ce memoire examine le modele monetaire du taux de change pour savoir s il est valide par l experience canado americaine en longue periode le test principal utilise est la technique de cointegration de johansen 1991 et johansen et juselius 1990 les effets des variables fictives et de la specification de la structure de delais sur l inference statistique sont consideres et on utilise des simulations de monte carlo fondees sur les parametres calibres malgre le fait qu on fait appel a la plus longue serie chronologique utilisee dans ce type d analyse a ce jour on ne trouve aucun support du modele monetaire du taux de change en utilisant les procedures de johansen ce resultat est confirme par l utilisation de plusieurs autres procedures de cointegration

critical survey the new geographical turn in economics some critical reflections over the past few years a new geographical economics has emerged focused on the spatial agglomeration of industry and the long run convergence of regional incomes several leading names are associated with this geographical turn including paul krugman michael porter robert barro and w brian arthur this new economic geography it is argued here is neither that new nor is it geography instead it is a reworking or re invention using recent developments in formal mathematical mainstream economics of traditional location theory and regional science as such it is quite opposed to and difficult to reconcile with the work on regional development and industrial agglomeration being carried out in economic geography proper

banking on currency forecasts how predictable is change in money abstract the paper examines the predictive performance of four structural exchange rate models using both parametric and nonparametric techniques error correction versions of the models are fit so that plausible long run elasticities can be imposed on the fundamental variables of each model a variety of model evaluation statistics are reported our findings confirm that fundamental exchange rate models forecast no better than a random walk model for short term prediction horizons for longer horizons error correction terms can explain exchange rate movements significantly better than a no change forecast for a subset of the models and currencies we consider

constructing a market performing theory the historical sociology of a financial derivatives exchange this analysis of the history of the chicago board options exchange explores the performativity of economics a theme in economic sociology recently developed by callon economics was crucial to the creation of financial derivatives exchanges it helped remedy the drastic loss of legitimacy suffered by derivatives in the first half of the 20th century option pricing theory a crown jewel of neoclassical economics succeeded empirically not because it discovered preexisting price patterns but because markets changed in ways that made its assumptions more accurate and because the theory was used in arbitrage the performativity of economics however has limits and an emphasis on it needs to be combined with classic themes in economic sociology such as granovetterian embedding and the way in which exchanges can be cultures and moral communities in which collective action problems can be solved

the monetary model of the exchange rate long run relationships short run dynamics and how to beat a random walk abstract the monetary model is re examined for the sterling dollar exchange rate first it is demonstrated using a multivariate cointegration technique that an unrestricted monetary model is a valid framework for analyzing the long run exchange rate second we find once proper account has been taken of the short run data dynamics that an unrestricted monetary model outperforms the random walk and other models in an out of sample forecasting contest jel f31

searching for stationarity purchasing power parity under the current float abstract using panel data methods we investigate long run purchasing power parity by testing for unit roots in real exchange rates of industrial countries under the current float the evidence against the unit root hypothesis is stronger for larger than for smaller panels for monthly than for quarterly data and when the german mark rather than the united states dollar is used as the base currency while we find that accounting for serial correlation considerably weakens the evidence against the unit root null the results as a whole are consistent with long run purchasing power parity

seasonality and cointegration of regional house prices in the uk the data generation process underlying regional house prices in the uk is investigated using new statistical tests it is found that causal flows tend to be northwards the south east rather than greater london acts as an exogenous price determinator of the other regions in the south the midland regions have a great influence on prices in the north and flows through the east midlands are characterised by bi directional causality these results are largely independent of assumptions made about the data generation process and tests of these assumptions have low power in any case there are also similarities between this causality and migration patterns particularly in the south of england

regime shifts and the canada us exchange rate in a multivariate framework this study re evaluates the monetary approach for the canada u s exchange rate and shows that its basic structure can be verified although the coefficients are not consistently in line with theory our findings also indicate that exchange rate adjustment is subject to regime shifts

tenure security and urban squatting while recent studies have shown that up to 35 of the total urban population of the third world live in squatter settlements there is a dearth of economic analysis on the phenomenon of squatting this paper attempts to fill this gap the equilibrium model argues that the difference in unit housing prices between the non squatting formal sector of a city and its squatting informal sector reflects the premium associated with a secure tenure status the empirical portion of this paper uses hedonic price techniques to derive the average premium on tenure security in a medium sized philippine city davao results show that formal sector unit dwelling prices are about 18 renters to 58 owners more than in the informal sector these equilibrium price differentials were found to be greater for lower income groups larger household sizes and households with older heads for renters and younger heads for

estimating stated preferences with rated pair data environmental health and employment effects of energy programs abstract respondents stated preferences for attributes related to various electricity generation scenarios are analyzed using a series of pairwise ratings multiple observations for each respondent facilitate estimating individual scale parameters scale estimates can identify uninformative rating patterns and make it possible to delete such observations or adjust wtp calculations cross section time series analysis of the data indicates that nonprice attributes increase in salience during the course of the experiment thus later responses may be better indicators of preferences than earlier responses comparisons of polychotomous with dichotomous models indicate that most respondents relative preference ratings are not simply dichotomous but discriminate systematically along the rating scale