optimal taxation in models of endogenous growth we study the problem of optimal taxation in three infinite horizon representative agent endogenous growth models the first model is a convex model in which physical and human capital are perfectly symmetric our second model incorporates elastic labor supply through a lucas style technology analysis of these two models points out the danger of assuming that government expenditures are exogenous in our third model we include government expenditures as a productive input in capital formation showing that the limiting tax rate on capital is no longer zero in numerical simulations we find similar effects on growth and welfare in all three models

growth effects of flat rate taxes recent estimates of the potential growth effects of tax reform vary wildly ranging from zero to eight percentage points using an endogenous growth model we assess which model features and parameter values are important for determining the quantitative impact of tax reform we find that the critical parameters are factor shares depreciation rates the elasticity of intertemporal substitution and the elasticity of labor supply the elasticities of substitution in production on the other hand are relatively unimportant the quantitative estimates in several recent papers are compared with each other and with some of the evidence from u s experience we find that robert lucas s conclusion that tax reform would have little or no effect on the u s growth rate is theoretically robust and consistent with the evidence

public budgetary rules and gdp growth an empirical study on oecd and twelve european countries we study the long term effects of budgetary rules on gdp growth rate and analyse the determinants of the short term gdp growth dynamics for both a sample of 19 oecd and a subsample of 12 european countries we show that in the long run improvements in the cyclically adjusted budget balance as well as increases in the tax burden have negative effects on gdp growth the highest effect of fiscal policy on gdp growth would be obtained if the structural deficits were used to increase the market size by reducing the tax burden in line with barro 1990 a deficit financed reduction of tax burden has a stronger effect for european than for oecd countries because in europe the government size with respect to market size is too large therefore if gdp growth is a dominant policy objective in europe specific actions should redress the 2012 treaty toward a reduction of the tax burden

consumption externalities and diffusion in pharmaceutical markets antiulcer drugs we examine the role of consumption externalities in the demand for pharmaceuticals at both the brand level and over a therapeutic class of drugs externalities emerge when use of a drug by others affects its value and or conveys information about efficacy and safety to patients and physicians this can affect the rate of market diffusion for a new entrant and can lead to dominance of one drug despite the availability of close substitutes we use data for h2 antagonist antiulcer drugs to estimate a dynamic demand model and quantify these effects the model has three components an hedonic price equation that measures how the aggregate usage of a drug as well as conventional attributes affect brand valuation equations relating equilibrium market shares to quality adjusted prices and marketing levels and diffusion equations describing the dynamic adjustment process we find that consumption externalities influence both valuations and rates of diffusion and that they operate at the brand and not the therapeutic class level

infrastructure investment a review essay economists try not to be faddists but they often cannot help themselves while work on a topic should mirror the prospective importance of the topic that situation seems to occur with disappointing frequency instead the usual pattern is that some reasonably important topic will be totally ignored for the longest time then recognized and then the subject of a flurry of work all out of proportion to its likely long run importance nowhere has this speculative bubble of economic research been more clearly illustrated than with infrastructure investment macroeconomists havelong felt that the stock of public capital is an important factor input in the production of total output macroeconomists have known that u s productivity growth slowed dramatically in about 1973 and macroeconomists should have known that united states investment in public capital has been down since the late 1960s yet analysis of the u s productivity slowdown completely ignored infrastructure investment for the first fifteen years of this slowdown concentrating instead on energy prices social regulation the composition of the work force research and development different rates of obsolescence of the private capital stock and any number of other matters the public capital stock was hardly ever even mentioned as a potential factor in the productivity slowdown aschauer changed all that he wrote a series of papers 1989a 1989b 1989c that put these two movements together econometrically infrastructure investment turned down and aggregate productivity turned down slightly later both in the united states and in some other developed countries his work hit the magic button those who had worried about the productivity puzzle for fifteen years welcomed a new suspect those who were worried about low rates of u s national saving welcomed a new way to make their argument even more forcefully than with official figures on saving and investment which do not count infrastructure investment as investment political liberals and liberal politicians saw a way to rescue government spending and projects from the assaults of reaganism and even a way to avoid oth

scale congestion and growth this paper explores the relationship between aggregate and relative congestion returns to scale and economic growth aggregate congestion reduces the effective productivity of capital relative congestion reduces the effective productivity of labour both forms of congestion adversely affect the equilibrium growth rate although their relative effects depend upon aggre gate returns to scale the two forms of congestion have contrasting effects on the transitional dynamics relative congestion retards the rate of adjustment aggregate congestion accelerates it the externalities generated by congestion and non optimal expenditure can be fully cor rected both during the transition and in steady state by a time invariant income tax the role of public expenditure as an instrument of economic growth has been a major policy issue as governments throughout the world design stimulus packages as in japan and face difficult choices to meet the emu criteria in europe empirical research investigating the impact of public investment on the productivity of private capital and output was stimulated by aschauer 1989a b who found the effects to be strongly positive the nature of public investment is however diverse in general public goods vary extensively in terms of the nature of their services spanning the range between the polar cases of pure private and pure public goods but the treatment of public expenditures in formal growth models is limited barro 1990 and futagami et al 1993 treat government expenditure as a pure pub lic good and in so doing they fail to take account of the congestion typically associated with public goods however as barro and sala i martin 1992 have argued almost all public services are characterized by some degree of congestion so that the pure public good should be viewed as only a bench mark these considerations suggest that congestion is an important consider ation in assessing the effect of public expenditures on economic growth attempts to analyse the effects of congestion on economic growth have been limited in various dimensions drawing on the public goods literature edwards 1990 proposes a number of specifications of congestion two notions particularly relevant in a growth context are relative congestion and aggregate absolute congestion the former specifies the level of services derived by an individual from the provision of a public good in terms of the usage of his individual capital stock relative to the aggregate capital stock aggregate congestion sometimes called crowding indicates how aggregate usage of the service alone influences the services received by an individual 2 existing applications of congestion to growth theory introduce it into ak models see barro and sala i martin 1992 1995 glomm and ravikumar 1994 1997 and turnovsky 1996 1997 however the ak model features two limitations that restrict its flexibility to examine the relationship between congestion and growth first as solow 1994 pointed out sustained ongoing

fiscal policy elastic labor supply and endogenous growth abstract endogenizing labor supply leads to fundamental changes in the equilibrium structure of the ak growth model the balanced growth equilibrium can be described in terms of two tradeoff loci relating the equilibrium growth rate to the fraction of time devoted to leisure the implications of endogenous labor supply for fiscal policy are analyzed three issues are addressed first the effects of various distortionary tax changes and government expenditure changes on the equilibrium growth leisure employment tradeoff are analyzed second optimal fiscal policy is characterized finally the formal analysis is supplemented by numerical results focusing particularly on the quantitative welfare implications

public investment in infrastructure in a simple growth model abstract in this paper we examine the implications for capital accumulation when infrastructure enters as an external input into private production functions in our model infrastructure is nonexclusive but may exhibit varying degrees of nonrivalry revenues from uniform taxes on capital and labor income are used to finance public investment in infrastructure we show that the optimal tax rate is independent of the degree of nonrivalry when production exhibits constant returns to augmentable factors the equilibrium displays constant growth for most parameters the growth rate depends on the population size under decreasing returns the optimal trajectory exhibits monotonic convergence to a steady state level

testing the rationality of doe s energy price forecasts under asymmetric loss preferences this paper examines the rationality of the price forecasts for energy commodities of the united states department of energy s doe departing from the common assumption in the literature that doe s forecasts are based on a symmetric underlying loss function with respect to positive vs negative forecast errors instead we opt for the methodology of elliott et al 2005 that allows testing the joint hypothesis of an asymmetric loss function and rationality and reveals the underlying preferences of the forecaster results indicate the existence of asymmetries in the shape of the loss function for most energy categories with preferences leaning towards optimism moreover we also examine whether there is a structural break in those preferences over the examined period 1997 2012

optimal fiscal and monetary policy in an economy without capital abstract this paper is concerned with the structure and time consistency of optimal fiscal and monetary policy in an economy without capital in a dynamic context optimal taxation means distributing tax distortions over time in a welfare maximizing way for a barter economy our main finding is that with debt commitments of sufficiently rich maturity structure an optimal policy if one exists is time consistent in a monetary economy the idea of optimal taxation must be broadened to include an inflation tax and we find that time consistency does not carry over an optimal inflation tax requires commitment by rules in a sense that has no counterpart in the dynamic theory of ordinary excise taxes the reason time consistency fails in a monetary economy is that nominal assets should from a welfare maximizing point of view always be taxed away via an immediate inflation in a kind of capital levy this emerges as a new possibility when money is introduced into an economy without capital

supply side economics and endogenous growth abstract in a simple convex model of endogenous growth the expansionary effects of a deficit financed tax cut are often strong enough to allow the government debt to be paid off in the long run without the need for subsequent tax increases a permanent and substantial reduction in marginal rates of income taxation can provide for both vigorous real economic growth and long run government budget balance

budget balance welfare and the growth rate dynamic scoring of the long run government budget this paper determines conditions under which a reduction in the role of government either through a tax cut alone or together with accompanying expenditure cuts will improve long run government fiscal balance for a ceteris paribus cut in the income tax rate to improve long run government balance the intertemporal elasticity of substitution must exceed unity a tax cut balanced by an expenditure cut is likely to improve the long run balance even if it does not improve the short run balance the relationship between improving the long run fiscal balance and economic welfare is also analyzed

capital utilization economic growth and convergence abstract optimal decisions by economic agents regarding the utilization of capital lead to empirically plausible speeds of convergence in one sector models of economic growth the relationship between depreciation and capital utilization plays a crucial role in slowing down convergence to the steady state cross country differences in the extent to which the capital utilization decision is internalized along the transition path may lead to differences in convergence rates even for countries with similar initial and terminal conditions finally by assuming a constant depreciation rate and full capital utilization standard growth models may be overstating the magnitude of the steady state equilibrium

optimal taxes and the structure of preferences if optimal tax theory is to be the basis for calculating tax rates a close understanding is required of the relationship between the structure of preferences and the configuration of optimal tax rates otherwise hypotheses chosen by the econometrician for practical convenience may completely determine the results independently of measurement this paper explores the relationship between various types of separability particularly weak and implicit separability and optimal tax rates in the various models discussed in the literature the use of distance functions and the antonelli matrix provides a significant unification of previously disparate results in the final analysis optimal tax theory should be the basis for actual calculation of tax rates although recently there have been great advances in theoretical results and in our understanding of their meaning we are still some way from a working knowledge of whether uniform commodity taxes are in practice optimal or if not which commodities should be discriminated against present theoretical formulae do not yield clear cut results except in special cases and it has recently become clear that optimal rates depend crucially on the detailed structure of consumer preferences for example atkinson and stiglitz 3 show that with an optimal nonlinear income tax discriminatory commodity taxes are only necessary to the extent that individual commodities are not weakly separable from leisure more recently deaton 6 has shown that a similar result holds for what is perhaps the most interesting of the standard models that where there are many consumers and only a linear income tax and proportional commodity taxes are allowed in this case separability between goods and leisure together with linear engel curves for goods removes the need for differential commodity taxation in consequence nothing can be learned about commodity taxes from consumer demand studies in which commodity demands are explained conditionally on total expenditure and commodity prices and which assume linear engel curves all such studies require separability from leisure as a maintained hypothesis and so are consistent with uniform commodity taxation these results suggest that the prospects for meaningful empirical calculations of tax rates are bleak econometricians estimating commodity demand and labor supply equations make generous use of separability assumptions to enable estimation at all in consequence it is likely that empirically calculated tax rates based on econometric estimates of parameters will be determined in structure not by the measurements actually made but by arbitrary untested and even unconscious hypotheses chosen by the econometrician for practical convenience to remedy this situation and as a prelude to fruitful empirical work it is necessary to have a more explicit understanding of how preference structure affects optimal tax rates such is the object of this paper three different

is public expenditure productive abstract this paper considers the relationship between aggregate productivity and stock and flow government spending variables the empirical results indicate that i the nonmilitary public capital stock is dramatically more important in determining productivity than is either the flow of nonmilitary or military spending ii military capital bears little relation to productivity and iii a core infrastructure of streets highways airports mass transit sewers water systems etc has most explanatory power for productivity the paper also suggests an important role for the net public capital stock in the productivity slowdown of the last fifteen years

how fast do economics converge the conventional approach to estimating how fast economics converge examines the cross economy relationship between the growth rate of per capita output over some time period and its initial level this approach produces consistent estimates only under highly restrictive assumptions which are violated by the data the paper develops an alternative approach that produces consistent estimates under weak assumptions this approach yields estimates substantially larger than those reported in the literature and also sufficiently large to be broadly consistent with the predictions of neoclassical growth theory

fiscal policy in general equilibrium this paper studies four classic fiscal policy experiments within a quantitatively restricted neoclassical model the authors main findings are as follows 1 permanent changes in government purchases can lead to short run and long run output multipliers that exceed one 2 permanent changes in government purchases induce larger effects than temporary changes 3 the financing decision is quantitatively more important than the resource cost of changes in government purchases and 4 public investment has dramatic effects on private output and investment these findings stem from important dynamic interactions of capital and labor absent in earlier equilibrium analyses of fiscal policy copyright 1993 by american economic association

the transitional dynamics of fiscal policy long run capital accumulation and growth this paper analyzes the effects of fiscal policies in a non scale growing economy with public and private capital the equilibrium dynamics are characterized and we contrast the dynamic effects of government expenditure on investment and expenditure on consumption under four alternative modes of tax financing most of our attention focuses on the numerical simulations of a calibrated economy the results emphasize the lengthy transition periods which implies that policies have sizeable level effects leading to substantial welfare effects even though long run growth rates are unaffected the paper highlights the intertemporal dimensions of fiscal policy and the tradeoffs these involve for economic performance especially growth and welfare

optimal taxation of capital income in general equilibrium with infinite lives this paper analyzes the optimal tax on capital income in general equilibrium models of the second best agents have infinite lives and utility functions which are extensions from the koopmans form the population is heterogeneous the important property of the models is the equality between the social and the private discount rates in the long run i find that the optimal tax rate is zero in the long run for a special case of additively separable utility functions i then determine the tax rates along the dynamic path and conditions that are sufficient for the local stability of the steady state

optimal tax debt and expenditure policies in a growing economy abstract this paper employs an endogenous growth model to analyze the role of a consumption tax in enhancing growth and welfare provided government expenditure impacts directly on the decisions of private agents two fiscal instruments are necessary to replicate the first best optimum the tradeoff between consumption and income taxes to achieve this outcome is discussed and shown to depend upon the degree of congestion associated with the public good and the level of government expenditure relative to its social optimum in general the analysis suggests a potentially important role for a consumption tax as part of an overall optimal fiscal package

a general two sector model of endogenous growth with human and physical capital balanced growth and transitional dynamics abstract we examine a two sector endogenous growth model with general constant return to scale production technologies governing the evolution of human and physical capital we prove the existence uniqueness and saddle path stability of the balanced growth equilibrium a dual approach drawing on techniques from international trade theory is used to provide complete characterization of the transitional dynamics of consumption goods and education outputs human and physical capital inputs and the relative price of human capital investment we investigate the long run effects of changes in time preference and factor taxation and show the emergence of instability or indeterminacy when factor taxes are too distortionary journal of economic literatureclassification number d90

dynamic analysis of an endogenous growth model with public capital this paper develops an endogenous growth model with productive public capital along with private capital in a spirit similar to that of r j barro 1990 since the authors model includes two stock variables it has transitional dynamics unlike most of the previous studies on endogenous growth including barro s where concerns are restricted to the steady state analysis first they show that the transitional path is unique and stable second the character of the transitional path is explored third the authors show that the optimal tax rate is smaller than the rate that maximizes the national growth rate with a log linear utility function copyright 1993 by the editors of the scandinavian journal of economics