the macroeconomic effects of government debt in a stochastic growth model abstract this paper studies how government liabilities affect macroeconomic aggregates in a standard general equilibrium growth model there are two principal results i though it is often thought that fiscal deficits crowd out investment this paper shows that deficit financed cuts in distortionary income taxation may stimulate investment even if agents expect future taxes on capital income to be higher this result is dependent on the values of two key parameters the elasticity of labor supply and the degree of persistence in the government debt process ii the economy s response to an increase in government expenditure depends on how it is financed distortionary tax finance may lead to a decline in output consumption and investment in contrast deficit finance may increase output and consumption

women s property rights and gendered policies implications for women s long term welfare in rural tanzania this paper evaluates effects of community level women s property and inheritance rights on women s economic outcomes using a 13 year longitudinal panel from rural tanzania in the preferred model specification inverse probability weighting is applied to a woman level fixed effects model to control for individual level time invariant heterogeneity and attrition results indicate that changes in women s property and inheritance rights are significantly associated with women s employment outside the home self employment and earnings results are not limited to sub groups of marginalised women findings indicate lack of gender equity in sub saharan africa may inhibit economic development for women and society as a whole

the economics of worldwide stagflation the last fifteen years have witnessed dramatic changes in economics not only in the manner in which the economics profession views economics but also in the manner in which the general public views economics and economists by the late 1960 s there had emerged more or less a consensus macroeconomic framework that is an agreed upon structure to be used to study economic problems at the aggregate level robert solow stated as quoted in leijonhufvud 1968

cyclical effects of government s employment and goods purchases distinguishing between the goods purchase and employee compensation components of government spending is important shocks to government goods purchases and shocks to government employment have the opposite effects on private output private employment and private investment moreover with this distinction in place quantitative analysis reveals that government spending is no longer a significant driving source of the u s business cycle on the contrary the components of government spending are procyclical in the u s data primarily because of their positive responses to the output fluctuations generated by technology shocks copyright 1998 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

new roles for marriage in urban africa kinship networks and the labor market in kenya abstract this paper explores new roles that traditionally rural kinship networks organized around the marriage institution might play in improving labor market outcomes in urban africa using new data from kisumu kenya and controlling for selection into marriage we find that marriage significantly increases employment levels and incomes in our sample of migrants at the same time marriage increases the remittances that migrants send to the extended family consistent with the view that the benefits of the network come with additional social obligations these obligations appear to be borne disproportionately by high ability individuals who consequently defer marriage the negative selection into marriage that we uncover has consequences for the future viability of the urban networks with implications for long term growth and distribution in this economy

how responsive is business capital formation to its user cost an exploration with micro data abstract the response of business capital formation to its user cost is critical to evaluating tax reform deficit reduction and monetary policy evidence for a substantial user cost elasticity however is sparse most evidence has been based on aggregate data although several recent studies with firm level data report substantial effects with a particularly rich micro dataset containing over 26 000 observations this paper explores what can be learned about the user cost elasticity while the results depend to some extent on the specification and econometric technique various diagnostics lead us to prefer a precisely estimated but small elasticity of approximately 0 25 this paper is dedicated to the memory of robert eisner who labored early and ably on uncovering the determinants of investment spending and highlighting the importance of the question found in the title of this paper

winners and losers among a refugee hosting population abstractthe impact of a sudden mass influx of forced migrants on the hosting economy is understudied and not well understood using a household panel data set for the kagera region in tanzania we test the impact of the mass refugee presence on the welfare of the local population our identification strategy exploits variations in the timing of arrival as well as the spatial distribution of rwandese and burundi refugees we find a positive and aggregate effect but households are affected differently depending on their main initial occupation

tales of fiscal adjustment fiscal adjustments why they can be expansionary this paper examines the evidence on fiscal adjustments in oecd countries from the early 1960s to today the results shed light on the recently observed phenomenon of fiscal tightening that produces non keynesian expansionary effects one interpretation is that a serious fiscal tightening increases demand wealth rises when future tax burdens decline and when interest rates decline credibility is restored and inflation or default risks abate both consumption and investment rise for this effect to produce an expansion the tightening must be sizeable and occur after a period of stress when the budget is quickly deteriorating and public debt is building up another interpretation emphasizes the supply side typically a fiscal consolidation based on tax increases is short lived to be long lasting it must include cuts in public employment transfers and government wages to be politically possible such a policy must be supported by trade unions these measures result in more efficient labour markets and boost the supply side based both on statistical evidence and on a detailed analysis of ten cases of major fiscal adjustment this article provides cautious support to the supply side view without denying a more limited role for the demand side channel alberto alesina and silvia ardagna

women empowerment and economic development women empowerment and economic development are closely related in one direction development alone can play a major role in driving down inequality between men and women in the other direction empowering women may benefit development does this imply that pushing just one of these two levers would set a virtuous circle in motion this paper reviews the literature on both sides of the empowerment development nexus and argues that the interrelationships are probably too weak to be self sustaining and that continuous policy commitment to equality for its own sake may be needed to bring about equality between men and women

the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in spain this paper focuses on the effects of fiscal policy in spain analysed in a var context fiscal shocks are found to involve significant effects on gdp private consumption private investment interest rates and prices non keynesian effects are observed moreover evidence on the channels highlighted in the literature for such effects to arise is found notably the effects of permanent income on consumption and investment on the demand side coupled with the response of the equilibrium wage on the supply side affecting entrepreneurial profits and investment the response of interest rates seems to reinforce both effects furthermore the different readings of spending or taxes do not affect macroeconomic variables homogeneously

trade unions investment and employment the implications of long term wage contracts and investment in capital on non cooperative wage bargaining between a firm and a union are analysed the union maximises a utilitarian utility function and the firm faces a neoclassical investment problem with internal adjustment costs the monopoly union outcomes with binding contracts is time inconsistent because the union has an incentive to renege on announced low wage strategies once the capital stock has been accumulated the monopoly union outcome without binding contracts leads to credible strategies which correspond to higher wages and lower levels of employment investment and the capital stock efficient contracts give rise to higher employment than monopoly union outcomes whether with or without long term wage contracts the results are illustrated with a numerical example finally when the game between the union and firm is repeated reputational equilibira provide a solution to the problem of time inconsistency

adult mortality and consumption growth in the age of hiv aids the authors use a 13 year panel of individuals in tanzania to assess how adult mortality shocks affect both short and long run consumption growth of surviving household members using unique data which tracks individuals from 1991 to 2004 they examine consumption growth controlling for a set of initial community household and individual characteristics the effect is identified using the sample of households in 2004 which grew out of baseline households the authors find robust evidence that an affected household will see consumption drop 7 percent within the first five years after the adult death with high growth in the sample over this time period this creates a 19 percentage point growth gap with the average household there is some evidence of persistent effects of these shocks for up to 13 years but these effects are imprecisely estimated and not significantly different from zero the impact of female adult death is found to be particularly severe

corporation tax asymmetries and investment evidence from uk panel data theoretical work has emphasised the potentially powerful impact of corporation tax asymmetries on investment behaviour but empirical work has mainly been confined to the measurement of effective tax rates this paper uses panel data from 597 u k companies to ask are tax asymmetries important to understanding observed investment behaviour an optimising investment model is developed and estimated both as a q equation and a euler equation in which the cost of capital appears careful modelling of asymmetries does not noticeably improve the empirical performance of these equations possible explanations are discussed

temperature changes household consumption and internal migration evidence from tanzania large rural urban wage gaps observed in many developing countries are suggestive of barriers to migration that keep potential migrants in rural areas using long panel data spanning nearly two decades i study the extent to which migration rates are constrained by liquidity constraints in rural tanzania the analysis begins by quantifying the impact of weather variation on household welfare the results show how household consumption co moves with temperature rendering households vulnerable to local weather events these temperature induced income shocks are then found to inhibit long term migration among men thus preventing them from tapping into the opportunities brought about by geographical mobility

competing premarital investments this paper studies premarital parental investments in children s wealth where spousal wealth is a public good in marriage by investing in their children s wealth parents increase the wealth of their children and the quality of the spouses that their children can marry in large marriage markets the hedonic return to investment internalizes all the external benefits of premarital investment in wealth so that the competitive equilibrium is efficient marriage market competition also increases investments in small marriage markets relative to no competition but equilibrium investments are not efficient

unions and investment in british industry this paper presents an empirical analysis of investment in british industry using data at the industry level and focusing on union effects the authors find that the rate of investment is around 28 percent lower in firms that recognize unions and have an average union density relative to those in which unions are not recognized this is the gross effect holding wages product prices and productivity constant if we take account of union effects on these as well the overall effect is an investment reduction of 16 percent in competitive firms and 3 percent in noncompetitive firms copyright 1992 by royal economic society

fiscal policy profits and investment this paper evaluates the effects of fiscal policy on investment using a panel of oecd countries we find a sizeable negative effect of public spending and in particular of its wage component on profits and on business investment this result is consistent with different theoretical models in which government employment creates wage pressure for the private sector various types of taxes also have negative effects on profits but interestingly the effects of government spending on investment are larger than those of taxes our results can explain the so called non keynesian i e expansionary effects of fiscal adjustments jel e22 e62

fiscal crises and aggregate demand can high public debt reverse the effects of fiscal policy abstract this paper shows how the power of fiscal policy to affect consumption can vary depending on the level of public debt at moderate levels of debt fiscal policy has the traditional keynesian effects current generations of consumers discount future taxes because they may not be alive when taxes are raised or there will be a larger population available to pay the taxes but when debt reaches extreme values current generations of consumers know there is a high probability that they will have to pay extra taxes a fiscal deficit can have a contractionary effect in these situations

migration and economic mobility in tanzania evidence from a tracking survey this study explores the extent to which migration has contributed to improved living standards of individuals in tanzania using longitudinal data on individuals the authors estimate the impact of migration on consumption growth between 1991 and 2004 the analysis addresses concerns about heterogeneity and unobservable factors correlated with both income changes and the decision to migrate the findings show that migration adds 36 percentage points to consumption growth during a period of considerable growth in consumption these results are robust to numerous tests and alternative specifications unpacking the findings the analysis finds that moving out of agriculture is correlated with much higher growth than staying in agriculture although growth is always higher in any sector if one physically moves economic mobility is strongly linked to geographic mobility the puzzle is why more people do not move if returns to geographic mobility are high the evidence is consistent with models in which exit barriers are set by home communities through social and family norms that prevent migration of certain categories of people

trade unions non binding wage agreements and capital accumulation abstract this paper provides a counterexample to some recent results of grout and others which state that in a bargaining situation without binding wage agreements the capital stock will be biased downwards in a general equilibrium setting this result may be reversed the model is a simple diamond type overlapping generations economy where the young supply labour and the old own both capital and shares in firms in this environment a move from binding to non binding wage contracts may increase the capital stock as will a rise in trade union power finally it is shown that the move to non binding contracts may increase or decrease steady state utility but that the non binding contracts equilibrium is always pareto inefficient

threshold nonlinearities and asymmetric endogenous business cycles abstract this paper presents a model of endogenous business cycles in the presence of knowledge spillovers and a time to build restriction there are two key assumptions that characterize the model i the payoff to each firm depends on the aggregate state of knowledge and ii the innovation of a project is time consuming under those assumptions a simple structure is shown to be described by a piecewise linear difference equation with a discontinuity we show that the resulting dynamics generated by such a dynamical system leads to an asymmetric periodic cycle of arbitrary period that appears to switch repeatedly between different regimes

descent rules and strategic transfers evidence from matrilineal groups in ghana abstract traditional descent systems can roughly be divided into patrilineal and matrilineal in the latter a man s heir is not his own child but rather his sister s son the paper examines the implications of this social norm for the pattern of inter vivos transfers using household level data from rural ghana where the largest ethnic group is traditionally matrilineal in particular it tests the predictions of a model of strategic behavior according to which children should respond to the threat of disinheritance by increasing transfers to their parents during lifetime to induce a donation of land before the default matrilineal inheritance is enforced i find that the credibility of customary norms enforcement as proxied by the presence of a nephew in the father s household significantly increases the probability of receiving transfers from children for akans but not for the other groups the effect is specific to nephews and not to other co resident boys this pattern of behavior can affect asset accumulation decisions across generations

fiscal policy in general equilibrium this paper studies four classic fiscal policy experiments within a quantitatively restricted neoclassical model the authors main findings are as follows 1 permanent changes in government purchases can lead to short run and long run output multipliers that exceed one 2 permanent changes in government purchases induce larger effects than temporary changes 3 the financing decision is quantitatively more important than the resource cost of changes in government purchases and 4 public investment has dramatic effects on private output and investment these findings stem from important dynamic interactions of capital and labor absent in earlier equilibrium analyses of fiscal policy copyright 1993 by american economic association

fiscal policy in good times and bad in the 1980s several countries with large government debt or deficit implemented substantial and in some cases drastic deficit cuts contrary to widespread expectations in many cases private consumption boomed rather than contracted this paper shows that in times of fiscal stress shocks to government revenues and especially expenditure have very different effects on private consumption than in normal times

female migration for marriage implications from the land reform in rural tanzania summary using the longitudinal household panel data drawn from rural tanzania 1991 2004 this study investigates impacts of the land reform on women s marriage motivated relocation during the period under study several villages that initially banned a widow s land inheritance abolished this discrimination taking a differences in differences approach this study finds that the probability of males marrying in a village increased by altering its customary land inheritance rule in favor of widows in the light of the traditional system favoring exogamous and patrilocal marriage this finding indicates that females relocate at marriage in response to the favorable land tenure system at the destination

land markets and land access among female headed households in northwestern tanzania summary land markets can potentially improve land access for female headed households if markets exhibit less restrictive gender norms around land ownership as compared with non market based systems of allocation at the same time land markets may not operate in a gender neutral manner with restrictions beyond the market continuing to influence the options of female headed households using both qualitative data and household survey data collected in 2014 and 2015 this paper explores the extent and manner in which female heads participate in the sales and rental markets in northwestern tanzania a qualitative analysis reveals that female heads do engage with the market although they find it most difficult to mobilize the necessary capital to participate as buyers or renters women also seem to face unique restrictions on selling land regression results show that female heads use the market to augment a small land endowment left from their marriage and this is particularly true for divorced or separated women however female headed households remain somewhat marginalized in terms of market participation our study shows that female heads in tanzania are far from sidelined in the land market though the rules of market engagement are decidedly nuanced

women as agents of change female income and mobility in india economic globalization will give many women in developing countries access to steady and relatively remunerative employment for the first time potentially shifting bargaining power within their households and changing the choices that are made for their children this paper exploits a unique setting a group of tea plantations in south india where women are employed in permanent wage labor and where incomes do not vary by caste to anticipate the impact of globalization on mobility across social groups in the future the main result of the paper is that a relative increase in female income weakens the family s ties to the ancestral community and the traditional economy but these mobility enhancing effects are obtained for certain historically disadvantaged castes alone although the paper provides a context specific explanation for why the women from these castes emerge as agents of change the first general implication of the analysis is that the incentive and the ability of women to use their earnings to influence household decisions depends importantly on their social background the second implication is that historically disadvantaged groups may in fact be especially responsive to new opportunities precisely because they have fewer ties to the traditional economy to hold them back

macroeconomic implications of cash limits in the public sector a cash limit is a fixed amount of money available for pay prior to the wage negotiations in the public sector this paper examines the macroeconomic implications of cash limits in a unionized economy with decentralized wage bargaining in both private and public sectors i focus in particular on the linkages between changes in the cash limit wage setting and employment in public and private sectors equilibrium unemployment is independent of the size of the public sector if there are no sectoral differences in the unions relative bargaining power in general unemployment may rise or fall by public sector expansion accomplished by means of an increase in the cash limit unemployment increases if unions are relatively more powerful in the public than in the private sector

consumption smoothing migration and marriage evidence from rural india a significant proportion of migration in low income countries particularly in rural areas is composed of moves by women for the purpose of marriage we seek to explain these mobility patterns by examining marital arrangements among indian households in particular we hypothesize that the marriage of daughters to locationally distant dispersed yet kinship related households is a manifestation of implicit interhousehold contractual arrangements aimed at mitigating income risks and facilitating consumption smoothing in an environment characterized by information costs and spatially covariant risks analysis of longitudinal south indian village data lends support to the hypothesis marriage cum migration contributes significantly to a reduction in the variability of household food consumption farm households afflicted with more variable profits tend to engage in longer distance marriage cum migration the hypothesized and observed marriage cum migration patterns are in dissonance with standard models of marriage or migration that are concerned primarily with search costs and static income gains

investment models and expectations some estimates for the italian industrial sector the essential characteristic of investment decisions is that they are inherently forward looking as they depend upon the expectations of future values of the relevant variables in the specification of investment functions it is crucial therefore to start from a model of a firm s behavior that provides a rationale for the importance of future events at the same time in empirical work one must pay attention to the choice of appropriate proxies for the expectational variables in this paper we shall examine the effects on investment expenditure of expected output and factor prices starting from a putty clay model of the firm and using aggregate data on the industrial sector for italy in section 2 the implications for the specification of the investment function of the assumption of a putty clay technology and of the existence of delivery lag will be summarized following nickell 1979 the discussion will be extended here to the case of quadratic adjustment costs in section 3 the problems involved in obtaining a proxy for expected output are discussed the method used here is based on the theory of optimal predictors rational expectations within a multivariate time series framework in sections 4 and 5 the estimates of the invest

reprint of migration and development research is moving far beyond remittances summary research on migration and development has recently changed in two ways first it has grown sharply in volume emerging as a proper subfield second while it once embraced principally rural urban migration and international remittances migration and development research has broadened to consider a range of international development processes these include human capital investment global diaspora networks circular or temporary migration and the transfer of technology and cultural norms for this special issue we present a selection of frontier migration and development research that instantiates these trends