input subsidy programs in sub saharan africa a synthesis of recent evidence input subsidy programs have once again become a major plank of agricultural development strategies in africa ten african governments spend roughly us 1 billion annually on input subsidy programs isps amounting to 28 6 of their public expenditures on agriculture this article reviews the microlevel evidence on isps undertaken since the mid 2000s we examine the characteristics of subsidy beneficiaries crop response rates to fertilizer application and their influence on the performance of subsidy programs the impacts of subsidy programs on national fertilizer use and the development of commercial input distribution systems and finally the impact of isps on food price levels and poverty rates the weight of the evidence indicates that the costs of the programs generally outweigh their benefits findings from other developing areas with a higher proportion of crop area under irrigation and with lower fertilizer prices factors that should provide higher returns to fertilizer subsidies than in africa indicate that at least a partial reallocation of expenditures from fertilizer subsidies to r d and infrastructure would provide higher returns to agricultural growth and poverty reduction however because isps enable governments to demonstrate tangible support to constituents they are likely to remain on the african landscape for the foreseeable future hence the study identifies ways in which benefits can be enhanced through changes in implementation modalities and complementary investments within a holistic agricultural intensification strategy among the most important of these are efforts to reduce the crowding out of commercial fertilizer distribution systems and programs to improve soil fertility to enable farmers to use fertilizer more efficiently the challenges associated with achieving these gains are likely to be formidable

regional growth linkages from agriculture pioneering research on downstream linkages from agriculture is said to demonstrate that consumption links rather than production links are the main source of indrect growth effects that these consumption links take the form of labour intensive goods and services produced locally and that the largest farm enterprises are most locally multiplicative of activities mopping up surplus rural labour this article has two purposes first the methodologies assumptions and data base for the quantification of the local and non local regional multiplier effects from agricultural development are examined second the contradictory interpretations for agricultural policy which have arisen from these exercises of quantification are discussed and an attempt made to explain their bases

globalisation and unequalisation what can be learned from value chain analysis although many have gained from the process of globalisation there remains a stubbornly large number of people living in absolute poverty and a rise in inequality within and between countries the issue is thus not whether to participate in the global economy but how to do so in a manner which provides for sustainable and equitable income growth this study shows how value chain analysis can be used to chart the growing disjuncture between global economic activity and global income distribution and to provide causal explanations for this outcome in so doing value chain analysis provides valuable insights into policy formulation and implementation

coordination risk and cost impacts on economic development in poor rural areas this paper addresses issues relevant to a critical problem in economic development how to get rapid pro poor economic growth in poor rural areas in africa and south asia where most of the world s dollar a day poor live it examines constraints to the development of coordinated exchange systems in poor rural areas focusing on the core problem of thin markets and low density of economic activity in these areas transaction cost and risk analysis is integrated into a conventional neoclassical production economics framework to describe the existence of low level equilibrium traps in transactions and supply chains and to generate important insights for development policy

state intervention for food price stabilisation in africa can it work abstract although its arguments may have more general applicability this paper discusses the desirability and options for the stabilisation of staple food prices principally in eastern and southern africa it addresses three broad questions i why is stabilisation of food grain prices desirable ii what is technically feasible and iii can the governance and trade issues thrown up by suggested mechanisms be solved it considers a number of options for price stabilisation assessing the strengths and weaknesses of each and suggesting situations in which each may be appropriate

explaining the relative decline of agriculture a supply side analysis for indonesia the relative decline of agriculture in growing economies is a central feature of economic development and a major influence on agricultural policies the literature on the causes of this decline has focused on the relative price effects arising from demand factors especially engel s law rather than on supply side influences such as changes in relative factor endowments and differential rates of technical change this article develops a simple structural model of the transformation of the indonesian economy applying an error correction mechanism to capture the dynamics resulting from disequilibria and the costs of adjustment the decline in agriculture s share of gross domestic product is found to be caused much less by the relative price effects typically emphasized in the literature than by capital accumulation and rapid technical change in agriculture

the recovery of agricultural productivity in sub saharan africa abstract this paper presents a new view of cross country agricultural productivity in sub saharan africa for the first time the wheat units approach to output aggregation is applied to africa this approach avoids many of the problems caused by exchange rate distortion and related problems when international output comparisons are based on agricultural value added measures of agricultural productivity based on the wheat unit aggregates reveal a striking recovery of growth in agricultural productivity during the mid 1980s these results contrast sharply with those derived from standard output aggregates based on agricultural value added this contrast is true for both partial and total factor productivity analyses technical change measured by expenditures for agricultural research and macroeconomic reform which leads to improved economic incentives for agriculture might account for up to two thirds of this recovery if this explanation is correct it raises concerns for the sustainability of africa s recent gains reduced public investment in agricultural research for example reduces current fiscal deficits at the expense of future growth in productivity

a policy agenda for pro poor agricultural growth abstract sub saharan africa and parts of south asia are likely to hold large numbers of very poor rural people into the foreseeable future although both history and theory suggest a pre eminent role for agricultural growth in poverty reduction in poor agrarian economies such growth today faces new difficulties many of these difficulties are endogenous to today s poor rural areas others result from broader processes of global change but some are due to changes in the dominant policy environment emphasizing liberalization and state withdrawal examination of 20th century green revolutions suggests that active state interventions were important in supporting critical stages of agricultural market development unfortunately such interventions benefits in institutional development are easily overlooked whereas their high costs are much more visible policy implications are discussed

the non linear impact of oil price on the oil demand a panel smooth transition regression model was adopted to analyse the non linear impact of oil prices on oil demand data for 42 countries was obtained from the international energy agency for the

food marketing and pricing policy in eastern and southern africa a survey abstract this article surveys the empirical record of grain marketing and pricing policy in eastern and southern africa over 1930 1995 the paper addresses five key issues with major implications for food policy throughout africa a why the anticipated supply response to market liberalization has not yet occurred b why the common assumption of state taxation of farmers to support a cheap food policy does not apply in most of the countries in the region c why the temporary successes of the state led approach to stimulating smallholder grain production were unsustainable d why the elimination of government food subsidies associated with market reform has not adversely affected consumers and e why the fiscal cost of the marketing systems at least initially worsened rather than improved after the reforms were implemented in most countries the key future challenges for marketing policy are how to develop coordinated and financially sustainable input finance and commodity marketing systems for raising productivity growth in smallholder agriculture while overcoming inherited agricultural dualism and how to mitigate the effects of food price instability in a cost effective manner

wheat markets food aid and food security in afghanistan abstract in afghanistan after two decades of civil strife and successive droughts from 1998 to 2002 large inflows of food aid distributed mainly to returning refugees and through food for work programs have helped offset production shortfalls of wheat the country s major staple at the same time private international trade from neighboring countries especially pakistan has also played a major role in augmenting wheat supply and stabilizing prices this paper presents an analysis of wheat prices and market flows in afghanistan based on results of surveys of wheat traders and millers and econometric analysis of price movements in major markets in afghanistan and pakistan in spite of food aid imports domestic prices were not lowered below import parity levels in most major afghan markets thus the price evidence suggests that large scale inflows of food aid which benefited the country by providing resources for targeted food for work and other programs did not have major price disincentive effects on domestic production at least through mid 2003 however following the 2003 bumper harvest the analysis suggests that continued food aid inflows may have depressed producer prices by as much as about 15 moreover given substantial prospects for rehabilitation of irrigation infrastructure there is ample scope for increasing domestic production of wheat and decreasing import demand so price disincentive effects of food aid remain a possibility in the future as well

what determines china s crude oil importing trade patterns empirical evidences from 55 countries between 1992 and 2015 abstract this study develops a conceptual framework that synthesizes the supply demand price and openness of crude oil trade along with a list of traditional economic political and geographical factors to investigate the determinants of crude oil imports in emerging markets we test the framework using china s crude oil imports from 55 countries for the period from 1992 to 2015 using both static and dynamic panel data models we find that china s crude oil import is associated with exporting country s supply demand and price as well as its bilateral trade relationships these factors were found to affect china s import of crude oil from the middle east however only bilateral trade relationships affect its imports of crude oil from the asia pacific furthermore we do not find substantial evidence in this research to indicate that china s direct investment increases crude oil imports from those countries this article is part of a virtual special issue entitled comparing sustainable energy policies in northeast asia toward the harmonized public private partnership

resource degradation low agricultural productivity and poverty in sub saharan africa pathways out of the spiral sub saharan africa ssa has the lowest agricultural productivity in the world while almost half of the population lives below us 1 per day the biggest development policy challenge is to find appropriate solutions to end hunger and poverty in the region building on several years of empirical research conducted in east africa this paper identifies potential strategies for sustainable development in this region in general the empirical evidence reviewed confirms that different strategies are needed in different development domains of ssa nevertheless some elements will be common to all successful strategies including assurance of peace and security a stable macroeconomic environment provision of incentives through markets where markets function development of market institutions where they do not and public and private investment in an appropriate mix of physical human natural and social capital the differences in strategies across these domains mainly reflect differences in the mix of those investments as influenced by different comparative advantages

interpreting changes from the 1970s to the 1990s in african agriculture through village studies abstract assessments of the performance of agriculture in sub saharan africa are typically based on official production statistics at national level between the early 1970s and the mid 1990s these often show alarmingly poor rates of growth but there are good reasons to doubt the statistics and their interpretation an alternative is to examine the record from the village level upward this paper looks at the evidence from 26 case studies of change between the mid 1970s and the mid 1980s at the district or village level these suggest less cause for alarm than the national statistics they confirm that access to markets is essential for agricultural development the single biggest idea in the policy reforms of the 1980s but they also underline the importance of the detail of policy in remedying failures in product capital and insurance markets and in public investment in technology

institutional reforms and dynamics of agricultural growth in china abstract the collective farming system the state monopolized procurement and marketing system and the grain self sufficient policy formed in the early 1950s made the rapid development of heavy industries possible in china however they were detrimental to farmers incentives and resulted in a serious misallocation of resources consequently despite sharp improvements in technology and increases in the use of modern inputs grain production in china barely kept up with population growth before the 1979 reform the shift from the collective farming system to the household based farming system in 1979 greatly improved farmers incentive and resulted in a sharp increase of grain output in the early 1980s in the late 1980s grain production stagnated again because the incompleteness of procurement system reform made the production of grain unprofitable for producing enough grain to feed china s ever increasing popualation it is imperative for the chinese government to liberalize the grain procurement and marketing system and to invest in yield improvement research it is also desirable for china to adjust her trade policy and to import more grain for meeting domestic grain demands

zimbabwe s maize based green revolution preconditions for replication abstract the green revolution was launched in 1960 in zimbabwe five years before it got underway in india since zimbabwe s green revolution was spearheaded by white commercial farmers however it was ignored by africa s new leaders in the 1960s as they experimented with state farms from moscow communal farms from china and land settlement schemes from israel at zimbabwe s independence in 1980 the new majority ruled government introduced a number of programs to help smallholders increase food and cash crop production drawing on a backlog of hybrid maize varieties expanded access to credit higher guaranteed government maize prices and marketing subsidies smallholders doubled maize production during 1980 1986 zimbabwe s maize based green revolution challenges those who allege that hybrid maize cannot compete with sorghum in low rainfall areas and that it is unsuitable for resource poor farmers because of the need to purchase new seed each year today virtually 100 of zimbabwe s maize area is under hybrids and short season hybrids are outcompeting other foodgrains in many low rainfall areas zimbabwe s biggest challenge is to develop cost effective marketing policies and institutions to sustain its maize based green revolution countries trying to replicate zimbabwe s success story should focus on fulfilling four interrelated preconditions political technological economic and institutional

2 the institutional structure of production 1 prize lecture to the memory of alfred nobel december 9 1991 this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

the economics of poverty in poor countries this paper which examines recently studied links between 1 poverty high fertility and undernourishment and 2 environmental degradation and civic disconnection in developing countries opens by reviewing the limitations of orthodox discussions of economic institutions and property rights and the orthodox dichotomy that has located the cause of poverty in the suppression of markets the introduction also notes that much of the analysis in this paper is based on data from sub saharan africa and india the next section of the paper summarizes evidence on the magnitude and extent of world poverty section 3 exposes the connection between undernourishment and a persons capacity to work as one of the pathways to the poverty trap sections 4 and 5 consider the dependence of impoverished rural populations on common property resources and how the conventional process of economic growth can break down this system and make certain sections of the population especially vulnerable to economic shocks the next two sections explore the possibility that links between poverty high fertility and environmental degradation may constitute another pathway to the poverty trap the eighth section reviews the methodology of using net national product which includes resource depletion and environmental deterioration as an evaluation criterion and argues that mainstream development economists may have neglected environmental and population problems because they have been relying on the wrong economic indices the final section concludes that a number of policies must be used to improve options for people

does aggregation hide the harmful effects of inequality on growth abstract aggregation can severely bias conventional tests of whether inequality impedes growth a micro growth model estimated on farm household data for rural china indicates that asset inequality in the area of residence has a harmful external effect on consumption growth the effect is lost in a regional growth regression

the influence of south korean energy policy on opec oil exports abstract south korea is the fifth top oil importer worldwide with 64 of its oil coming from opec member countries over the last 30 years south korea accounted for a rapid increase in energy use this in turn led south korea to be totally dependent on oil imports due to this increase south korea has been experiencing drastic changes in its energy system which could potentially impact its dependence on opec oil import external and internal factors have forced south korea to change its energy strategy and targets these targets would be achieved by reducing its energy intensity and utilizing electricity and renewable energies in order to reduce its dependence on oil consumption low carbon green growth is one policy along with many other energy policies developed by south korea for reducing greenhouse gases thus this policy is receiving a remarkable attention today these national policies along with other international ones are needed to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and promote other green initiatives this study puts emphasis on these policies as well as uses them to predict the future energy profile of south korea and how these policies will impact on oil imports from opec member countries

dynamic capabilities for hire how former host country entrepreneurs as mnc subsidiary managers affect performance mnc subsidiaries benefit from managers with entrepreneurial skills for finding superior combinations of mnc and host country resources however such management skills are scarce we reason that subsidiaries can improve their performance by hiring host country entrepreneurs as managers since they develop similar skills in start ups our theoretical model integrates mechanisms from entrepreneurial experience into theory on the microfoundations of dynamic capabilities we test and support our prediction using longitudinal employer employee data for 5587 foreign mnc subsidiaries in portugal further we show that performance effects are weaker when a subsidiary s management is internationally diverse and stronger in dynamic host country environments

exploring the logic behind southern africa s food crises summary government action during food crises in southern africa frequently exacerbates the problems driving food staple prices well beyond import parity we argue that an inability to make credible commitments due largely to a lack of trust between public and private sectors contributes to this dynamic empirical policy analysis can facilitate resolution only within a consultative process involving a broad range of stakeholders the policies emerging from such a process are not likely to approximate first best recommendations yet the precise policies may be less important than the fact that they exist and that main stakeholders find them credible

exploring crude oil production and export capacity of the opec middle east countries abstract as the world economy highly depends on crude oil it is important to understand the dynamics of crude oil production and export capacity of major oil exporting countries since crude oil resources are predominately located in the opec middle east these countries are expected to have significant leverage in the world crude oil markets by taking into account a range of uncertainties in this study we develop a scenario for crude oil export and production using the aceges model considering uncertainties in the resource limits demand growth production growth and peak decline point the results indicate that the country specific peak of both crude oil export and production comes in the early this century in the opec middle east countries on the other hand they occupy most of the world export and production before and after the peak points consequently these countries are expected to be the key group in the world crude oil markets we also find that the gap between the world crude oil demand and production broadens over time meaning that the acceleration of the development of ultra deep water oil oil sands and extra heavy oil will be required if the world continuous to heavily rely on oil products

do opec announcements influence oil prices abstract this paper investigates the effect of opec production decisions increase cut maintain on both wti and brent crude oil prices between q1 1991 and q1 2015 by employing the event study methodology and by using two indices as benchmarks bci and s p gsci we employ an egarch model to take into account the high volatility of oil prices and some stylized facts characterizing this volatility we find that the impact of opec s announcements on oil prices i evolves over time and among decisions ii is more significant for production cut and maintain iii is different for wti and brent prices and iv is sensitive to the benchmark index moreover opec s decisions depend on the exploration and extraction cost of more expensive unconventional oil resources

false promise or false premise the experience of food and input market reform in eastern and southern africa abstract the literature on the effects of agricultural market reform in africa is sharply divided and inconsistent this article attempts to reconcile opposing viewpoints on the effects of food and input market policy reform in eastern and southern africa drawing from studies of ethiopia kenya malawi zambia and zimbabwe we argue that a major source of the controversy stems from assumptions that countries have actually moved to a liberalized market environment we find that many of the most fundamental elements of the reform programs either remain unimplemented were reversed within several years or were implemented in such a way as to negate private sector investment incentives a framework is developed for explaining why some countries have been able to liberalize their food and fertilizer markets while others have not these findings have implications for how donor assistance and policy oriented research can more constructively contribute to an improved policy environment

malthus controverted the role of capital and technology in growth and environment recovery in kenya abstract investment in technological improvements coupled with management innovations and skills are commonly held to lead to growth rates which outpace population growth although this applies to both industry and agriculture anderson 1990 typical farm surveys in developing countries neglect to analyze fixed investments or the quality of management this paper provides a nonmathematical case study and model from kenya of the way in which investments in technological change and especially in land improvement have enabled rural incomes per capita to grow substantially with improved environmental conservation through the interactions of increased population density improved information and market opportunities population density and investment are shown to be critical interrelated factors investments require maintenance expenditures these are included in social cost benefit analysis but it is not always realized that labor on maintenance may have a rising opportunity cost which farmers take into account when selecting technologies although the major part of expenditures are made and managed by farmers government investments to stimulate and complement them are required as on the farm this requires wise management of recurrent and maintenance costs if the benefits of investment are to be lasting