how much damage will climate change do recent estimates two reasons to be concerned about climate change are its unjust distributional impact and its negative aggregate effect on economic growth and welfare although our knowledge of the impact of climate change is incomplete and uncertain economic valuation is difficult and controversial and the effect of other developments on the impacts of climate change is largely speculative the authors find that poorer countries and people are more vulnerable than are richer countries and people a modest global warming is likely to have a net negative effect on poor countries in hot climates but may have a net positive effect on rich countries in temperate climates if one counts dollars the world aggregate may be positive if one counts people the world aggregate is probably negative negative impacts would become more negative and positive impacts would turn negative for more substantial warming the marginal costs of carbon dioxide emissions are uncertain and sensitive to assumptions that partially reflect ethical positions but are unlikely to be larger than 50 per tonne carbon

welfare effects of distortionary fringe benefits taxation the case of employer provided cars in europe many employees receive company cars as fringe benefits induced by taxation we analyze the welfare effects of company car taxation for the netherlands by estimating to what extent car expenditure and private car travel change when employees receive a company car tax treatment of company cars generates an annual welfare loss ranging from 600 to 780 per company car mainly due to a shift toward more expensive cars from 420 to 600 but also due to increased private travel 180 for the whole of europe the annual welfare loss is about 12 billion 2011 by the economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

new vehicle feebates new vehicle feebate programs encourage improved fleet wide vehicle fuel efficiency yet analyses of these policies have been limited to ad hoc proposals in this paper we exploit an extensive multi year dataset which includes more than 16 million observations to evaluate the welfare implications of a long standing vehicle feebate program in the canadian province of ontario we 1 show that second best optimal feebates can be written as a function of new vehicle pigouvian taxes 2 find that ontario s feebate program was welfare enhancing relative to a no feebate scenario but that a second best optimal benchmark would have yielded additional welfare while reducing fleet wide emissions and 3 find that ontarian consumers responded asymmetrically to fees versus rebates

lessons from the polder energy tax design in the netherlands from a climate change perspective this paper evaluates energy tax reform in the netherlands between 1988 and 2002 from a climate change perspective in particular the introduction of two indirect taxes on energy products is now responsible for a considerable amount of tax revenue from a green tax base the paper discusses the energy tax base and rate structure from a modern pigovian tax perspective and illustrates the practical difficulties involved in the indirect and non uniform taxation of emissions also further improvements of the energy tax structure are discussed such as a better targeting of the energy tax base and tax rate to fuel characteristics

stacking low carbon policies on the renewable fuels standard economic and greenhouse gas implications this paper examines the economic and ghg implications of stacking a low carbon fuel standard lcfs with and without a carbon price policy on the renewable fuel standard rfs we compare the performance of various policy combinations for food and fuel prices fuel mix and fuel consumption we also analyze the economic costs and benefits of alternative policy combinations and their distributional effects for consumers and producers in the transportation and agricultural sector in the us using a dynamic multi market partial equilibrium model of the transportation and agricultural sectors we find that combining the rfs with an lcfs policy leads to a reduction in first generation biofuels and an increase in second generation biofuels compared to the rfs alone this policy combination also achieves greater reduction in ghg emissions even after considering offsetting market mediated effects imposition of a carbon price with the rfs and lcfs policy primarily induces fuel conservation and achieves larger ghg emissions reduction compared to the other policy scenarios all these policy combinations lead to higher net economic benefits for the transportation and agricultural sectors relative to the no policy baseline because they improve the terms of trade for us

mass car ownership in the emerging market giants the typical urban household in china owns a tv a refrigerator a washing machine and a computer but does not yet own a car in this paper we draw on data for a panel of countries and detailed household level surveys for the largest emerging markets to document a remarkably stable relationship between gdp per capita and car ownership highlighting the importance of within country income distribution factors we find that car ownership is low up to per capita incomes of about us 5000 and then takes off very rapidly several emerging markets including india and china the most populous countries in the world are currently at the stage of development when such takeoff is expected to take place we project that the number of cars will increase by 2 3 billion between 2005 and 2050 with an increase by 1 9 billion in emerging market and developing countries we outline a number of possible policy options to deal with the implications for the countries affected and the world as a whole marcos chamon paolo mauro and yohei okawa

the economic cost of global fuel subsidies by 2015 global oil consumption will reach 90 million barrels per day in part this high level of consumption reflects the fact that many countries provide subsidies for gasoline and diesel this paper examines global fuel subsidies using the latest available data from the world bank finding that road sector subsidies for gasoline and diesel totaled 110 billion in 2012 pricing fuels below cost is inefficient because it leads to overconsumption under baseline assumptions about supply and demand elasticities the total annual deadweight loss worldwide is 44 billion incorporating external costs increases the economic costs substantially

value of time speeding behavior and gasoline prices abstract value of time vot is a key parameter in economics and policy this paper presents an alternative method to estimate vot by analyzing an hourly dataset on drivers speeding behavior as a function of the gasoline price our identification strategy is novel as it is based on the intensive margin in comparison previous studies reveal vot on the extensive margin but choice alternatives have multiple attributes thereby potentially confounding estimates consistent with the range of the prior literature we find a vot of about 50 of the wage rate and analyze sources of bias from accidents and traffic tickets these bias functions suggest that previous stated preference vot estimates are likely downward whereas previous revealed preference estimates are likely upward biased

toward optimal meat consumption external cost from meat consumption raises an issue of possible government mechanisms toward mitigation economic theory provides a framework for determining the optimal set of mechanisms considering the associated benefits and costs such a theoretical development rests on consumers responsiveness to alternative mechanisms considering two mechanisms a pigouvian tax and green label education yields tandem theoretical optimal government mechanisms populating this theoretical model with empirically derived elasticities and other parameters provides an application results indicate education alone will likely not yield a high social optimal level of mitigation instead if external costs warrant government mechanisms a pigouvian tax will be required to move consumption toward a socially optimal state

biofuels tax policies and oil prices in france insights from a dynamic cge model abstract the 2009 renewable energies directive red has set up ambitious targets concerning biofuel consumption in the european union by 2020 nevertheless budgetary constraints and growing concerns about the environmental integrity of first generation biofuels have imposed a phasing out of the fiscal instruments to promote them focusing on france this paper combines an exogenous increase in oil prices and tax policies on fossil fuels the objective is to determine the efficiency of an alternative incentive scheme for biodiesel consumption based on a higher price of the fossil fuel substitute policy simulations are implemented through a dynamic computable general equilibrium cge model calibrated on 2009 french data the results show that the 10 biodiesel mandate set by the red would not be achieved even if the fixed taxes on diesel reach the same level as those on gasoline although integrating the rise in oil prices into the fiscal framework improves the biodiesel penetration rate it remains below the target moreover we find that the effects of biofuel consumption are limited to the biofuel chain sectors in other agricultural sectors the substitution effect of biodiesel with diesel is partially offset by the pricing effect induced by higher energy production costs

distributional and efficiency impacts of increased us gasoline taxes we examine the impacts of increased us gasoline taxes in a model that links the markets for new used and scrapped vehicles and recognizes the consider able heterogeneity among households and cars household choice parameters derive from an estimation procedure that integrates individual choices for car ownership and miles traveled we find that each cent per gallon increase in the price of gasoline reduces the equilibrium gasoline consumption by about 0 2

pricing and congestion economic principles relevant to pricing roads u k expenditures on roads or road costs average l4 34 billion per year from the 24 6 million vehicles registered road taxes of l12 7 billion were collected 2 9 times road costs from 1978 88 the average daily traffic on each km of road rose by 34 percent with a consequent serious increase in congestion road space is a valuable and scarce resource and road users should logically pay the marginal social cost if they are to make efficient transport and location decisions the paper estimates these costs and the appropriate charges for britain and identifies the major policy issues total road charges ignoring hard to quantify accident costs should yield l13 8 billion of which congestion charges would be l12 8 billion though close to road taxes in total amount replacing current taxes by road pricing would reduce congestion improve public transport and avoid perverse consequences from road expansion copyright 1990 by oxford university press

an evaluation of active and passive labour market policy this paper reports results of an empirical study on the effectiveness of labour market policy data from austria france germany great britain sweden and the united states are used to apply a simultaneous equation model with wages and employment being the endogenous variables in order to explain employment the amount of unemployment benefits per unemployed passive labour market policy and payment for wage subsidies and training per employed and unemployed person active labour market policy are used in addition to real wages and output wages and output have their expected impact on total employment it turns out that passive labour market policy has a negative and active labour market measures a positive effect on the number of persons employed

welfare impacts of alternative biofuel and energy policies an open economy equilibrium model is derived to investigate the effects of energy policy on the u s economy with emphasis on corn based ethanol a second best policy of a fuel tax and ethanol subsidy is found to approximate fairly closely the welfare gains associated with the first best policy of an optimal carbon tax and tariffs on traded goods the largest economic gains to the u s economy from these energy policies arise from their impact on u s terms of trade particularly in the oil market conditional on the current fuel tax an optimal ethanol mandate is superior to an optimal ethanol subsidy copyright 2011 oxford university press

measuring the effect of subsidized training programs on movements in and out of employment despite over two decades of u s experience in operating large scale subsidized training programs for low income and unemployed workers the effects of these programs are still highly controversial the controversy arises from the difficulty of specifying the model of participant outcomes in the absence of training that is necessary in any nonexperimental program evaluation in this paper we suggest that some of these difficulties may be overcome by focusing on a very simple measure of outcomes namely the probability of employment we present a variety of estimates of the effect of training on the probability of employment for the 1976 cohort of adult male participants in the comprehensive employment and training act ceta program our methods range from a simple comparison of pre and post training employment probabilities between trainees and nonparticipants to a fully specified first order markov model of employment probabilities with individual heterogeneity there is consistent evidence across methods that ceta participation increased the probability of employment in the three years after training by from 2 to 5 percentage points classroom training programs appear to have had significantly larger effects than on the job programs although the estimated effects of both kinds of programs are positive we also find that movements in and out of employment for trainees and nonparticipants are reasonably well described by a first order process conditional on individual heterogeneity in the context of this model ceta participation appears to have increased both the probability of moving into employment and the probability of continuing employment

can personal gasoline permit trading be effective an investigation into permit demand this study proposes a personal gasoline permit trading scheme to limit the total gasoline consumption thus reducing its environmental impact we studied the effectiveness of this scheme by analyzing the permit demand of a gasoline driven vehicle in transportation sector a general utility optimization model is formulated and a cobb douglas utility function is further assumed to analyze the response of permit demand to its price changes with the slutsky decomposition of price effects the results when defined in economic terms indicate that the permit demand of consumers in higher income groups are negatively related to permit price permit demand are also negatively related to permit price for consumers in medium income groups but with positive income effect and the direct relationship between permit demand of lower income groups and the price is defined as a giffen good effect that is for those low income groups when the permit price rises their demand for permits would also increase then us and singapore household expenditure data are used to show comparable results of a pilot personal gasoline permit trading scheme further some regulations on critical parameters such as permit allocation and permit prices in the policy design are proposed to make the scheme feasible in different income groups based on these results implications limitation and suggestions for future study are discussed

marginal tax reform externalities and income distribution the paper examines welfare improving and revenue neutral directions marginal policy reforms for an economy with nonidentical individuals and an externality that has a feedback effect on the consumption of taxed goods it considers three types of policy instruments the indirect taxes the uniform poll transfer and public abatement this extends the framework set up by ahmad and stern 1984 bovenberg and de mooij 1994 and schob 1996 the theoretical model is illustrated for a specific externality namely congestion caused by peak car transport

environmental policy public finance and the labour market in a second best world abstract environmental and tax policies and the optimal provision of clean and dirty public goods are analysed within the context of a second best framework of optimal taxation households consume both clean and dirty commodities degradation of the natural environment occurs due to the consumption of dirty private and public goods but can be offset when the government engages in abatement activities increased environmental concern implies a higher dirt tax a lower tax on labour less employment more public abatement and a cleaner environment if the elasticity of substitution between private consumption commodities and leisure is large and that between clean and dirty goods is small public consumption may expand while private consumption contracts otherwise public consumption falls

regulating altruistic agents altruism or regard for others can encourage self restraint among generators of negative externalities thereby mitigating the externality problem we explore how introducing impure altruism into standard regulatory settings alters regulatory prescriptions the optimal calibration of both quantitative controls and externality taxes is affected it also leads to surprising results on the comparative performance of instruments under quantity based regulation welfare is increasing in the propensity for altruism in the population under price based regulation the relationship is non monotonic price based regulation is preferred when the population is either predominantly altruistic or predominantly selfish quantity based regulation is preferred for cases in between

pounds that kill the external costs of vehicle weight heavier vehicles are safer for their own occupants but more hazardous for other vehicles simple theory thus suggests that an unregulated vehicle fleet is inefficiently heavy using three separate identification strategies we show that controlling for own vehicle weight being hit by a vehicle that is 1000 pounds heavier generates a 40 50 increase in fatality risk these results imply a total accident related externality that exceeds the estimated social cost of us carbon emissions and is equivalent to a gas tax of 0 97 per gallon 136 billion annually we consider two policies for internalizing this external cost a weight varying mileage tax and a gas tax and find that they are similar for most vehicles the findings suggest that european gas taxes may be much closer to optimal levels than the us gas tax language en

the renewable fuel standard in competitive equilibrium market and welfare effects we construct a tractable multi market equilibrium model designed to evaluate alternative biofuel policies the model integrates the u s agricultural sector with the energy sector and it explicitly considers both u s ethanol and biodiesel production the model provides a structural representation of the renewable fuel standard rfs policies and it uses the arbitrage conditions defining the core value of renewable identification number prices to identify the relevant competitive equilibrium conditions the model is parameterized based on elasticities and technical coefficients from the literature to represent observed 2015 data the model is simulated to analyze alternative scenarios including repeal of the rfs projected 2022 rfs mandates and optimal second best mandates the results confirm that the current rfs program considerably benefits the agriculture sector but also leads to overall welfare gains for the united states mostly via beneficial terms of trade effects implementation of projected 2022 mandates which would require further expansion of biodiesel production would lead to a considerable welfare loss relative to 2015 mandate levels constrained second best optimal mandates would entail more corn based ethanol and less biodiesel than currently mandated

some generalized mixture distributions with an application to unemployment duration compounding or mixture distributions provide a rich class of models for applications ranging from models of heterogeniety measurement error distribution of stock returns and income to models of unemployment duration some very general mixtures are considered which include many new mixture models and also provide a unified method of organizing and comparing previously considered models as well as a test of heterogeneity these models are used to analyze cps unemployment duration data a heterogeniety interpretation of the mixture models explains the discrepancy between implications of search theory and patterns observed in aggregate unemployment data copyright 1987 by mit press

is pay as you drive insurance a better way to reduce gasoline than gasoline taxes gasoline taxes are widely perceived as the most efficient instrument for reducing gasoline consumption because they exploit all behavioral responses for reducing fuel use including reduced driving and improved fuel economy at present however higher fuel taxes are viewed as a political nonstarter pay as you drive payd auto insurance which involves replacing existing lump sum premiums with premiums that vary in proportion to miles driven should be more practical since they do not raise driving costs for the average motorist we show that when impacts on a broad range of motor vehicle externalities are considered payd also induces significantly higher welfare gains than comparable gasoline tax increases for fuel reductions below 9 the reason is that under payd all of the reduction in fuel use rather than just a fraction comes from reduced driving this produces a substantial additional efficiency gain because mileage related external costs especially congestion and accidents are relatively large in magnitude this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

training and the time to find a job in israel using high frequency data for israel it is found that trainees exit unemployment at a much faster rate than comparable unemployed who did not receive training it is argued that this powerful training effect is unlikely to be simply the result of positive self selection of trainees the training effect is detected when using nonparametric estimation methods parametric methods fail to pick it up because of a very large exit spike in the hazard function which occurs when the training is completed other findings include the following the duration of unemployment varies directly with the duration of entitlement to unemployment benefit as well as the replacement ratio also the exit hazard from unemployment rises as the benefit entitlement period draws to a close

are there environmental benefits from driving electric vehicles the importance of local factors we combine a theoretical discrete choice model of vehicle purchases an econometric analysis of electricity emissions and the ap2 air pollution model to estimate the geographic variation in the environmental benefits from driving electric vehicles the second best electric vehicle purchase subsidy ranges from 2 785 in california to 4 964 in north dakota with a mean of 1 095 ninety percent of local environmental externalities from driving electric vehicles in one state are exported to others implying they may be subsidized locally even when the environmental benefits are negative overall geographically differentiated subsidies can reduce deadweight loss but only modestly

semiparametric estimation of selection models some empirical results among the central theoretical developments in the econometric analysis of nonexperimental microeconomic data has been the analysis of selectivity bias following the work of james heckman 1974 statistical techniques were developed in the 1970s to consistently estimate the parameters of these models one potential drawback to the application of these techniques is their sensitivity to the assumed parametric distribution of the unobservable error terms in the model in recent years a number of estimation methods for selection models have been developed which do not impose parametric forms on error distributions these methods are termed semiparametric since only part of the model of interest the regression function is parametrically specified while the statistical theory of these semiparametric estimators has received much attention practical applications of the methods are lacking an exception being the paper by joel horowitz and george neumann 1987 in this paper we use semiparametric methods to reanalyze data on the labor supply of married women first studied by thomas mroz 1987 using parametric methods the object of this reanalysis is to determine whether mroz s results are sensitive to his parametric assumptions

discounting and distributional considerations in the context of global warming the economics of global warming is reviewed with special emphasis on how the cost depends on the discount rate and on how costs in poor and rich regions are aggregated into a global cost estimate both of these factors depend on the assumptions made concerning the underlying utility and welfare functions it is common to aggregate welfare gains and losses across generations and countries as if the utility of money were constant but it is not if we assume that a e co2 equivalent dlubling implies costs equal to 1 5 of the income in both high and low income countries a pure rate of time preference equal to zero and a utility function which is logarithmic in income then the marginal cost of co2 emissions is estimated at 260 590 usd ton c for a time horizon in the range 300 1000 years an estimate which is large enough to justify significant reductions of co2 emissions on purely economic grounds the estimate is approximately 50 100 times larger than the estimate made by nordhaus in his dice model and the difference is almost completely due to the choice of discount rate and the weight given to the costs in the developing world as well as a more accurate model of the carbon cycle finally the sensitivity of the marginal cost estimate with respect to several parameters is analyzed

the social cost of carbon and its policy implications the shadow price or social cost of carbon is an important indicator of the global incremental damage done by emitting greenhouse gases today cost benefit analysis would set the optimal amount of greenhouse gas emission reduction at the point where this social cost just equals the incremental cost of controlling emissions the higher the value for the social cost of carbon the more control is warranted this comparison assumes that cost benefit analysis is the correct way of determining climate change policy and many believe this is not the case because of the very long term irreversible and potentially catastrophic nature of global warming but in the short run at least a comparison of cost and benefits is required and in any event all decisions imply costs and benefits but what is the right figure for the social cost of carbon this paper reviews the uk government s assessment of the cost and concludes that it has been set far too high because of a misreading of the integrated assessment models used to balance costs and benefits moreover adoption of the uk government s shadow price would have formidable implications for energy policy in the uk and for policies on afforestation copyright 2003 oxford university press

optimal taxation of car ownership car use and public transport insights derived from a discrete choice numerical optimization model in this paper we study the taxation of car ownership car use and public transport in the presence of externalities within the framework of a discrete continuous choice model we first derive optimal taxes in a simplified setting emphasizing the specific role of fixed car ownership taxes and the relevance of public transport demand by non car owners for the optimal tax structure a numerical optimisation model is then constructed to study welfareoptimal public transport fares and two part tariffs on ownership and use of gasoline and diesel cars in belgium results are as follows first we find that the current differences in tax treatment between diesel and gasoline car ownership and use cannot be justified on the basis of external cost and budgetary considerations efficient pricing requires substantial increases in the relative user tax on diesel cars as compared to gasoline cars optimal fixed taxes are substantially below current levels and only marginally differ between car fuel types second if for political or technical reasons variable car taxes cannot be optimally adjusted large differences in fixed car taxes do result the same holds if the government uses kilometre taxes as the main variable tax instrument third the results of a series of marginal tax reform exercises suggest that a shift form gasoline towards diesel taxation is welfare improving both for fixed and variable taxes somewhat surprisingly a shift from fixed towards variable taxes is not necessarily welfare improving it is for diesel but not for gasoline cars

the effectiveness of yts as a manpower policy using data from the 1985 and 1986 scottish people s surveys this paper attempts to measure the effectiveness of the youth training scheme by estimating the impact of youth training scheme participation on both the subsequent probability of employment and the subsequent earnings potential the youth training scheme is found to have a positive impact on the probability of employment after allowing for possible sample selection bias owing to participation being nonrandom there are indications that the youth training scheme may have a positive impact on subsequent wages but the estimates are so imprecise that it was not possible to draw any statistically significant conclusions about wage effects copyright 1990 by the london school of economics and political science

optimal gasoline tax in developing oil producing countries the case of mexico this paper uses the methodology of parry and small 2005 to estimate the optimal gasoline tax for a less developed oil producing country the relevance of the estimation relies on the differences between less developed countries ldcs and industrial countries we argue that lawless roads general subsidies on gasoline poor mass transportation systems older vehicle fleets and unregulated city growth make the tax rates in ldcs differ substantially from the rates in the developed world we find that the optimal gasoline tax is 1 90 per gallon at 2011 prices and show that the estimate differences are in line with the factors hypothesized in contrast to the existing literature on industrial countries we show that the relative gasoline tax incidence may be progressive in mexico and more generally in ldcs

carbon abatement in the fuel market with biofuels implications for second best policies a carbon tax on fuel would penalize carbon intensive fuels like gasoline and shift fuel consumption to less carbon intensive alternatives like biofuels since biofuel production competes for land with agricultural production a carbon tax could increase land rents and raise food prices this paper analyzes the welfare effect of a carbon tax on fuel consisting of gasoline and biofuel in the presence of a labor tax with and without a biofuel subsidy the market impacts of a carbon tax are also compared with that of a subsidy findings show that if a carbon tax increases biofuel demand the tax interaction effect due to higher fuel prices is exacerbated by higher land rent and food prices and greater erosion of the carbon tax base thus the second best optimal carbon tax for fuel is lower with biofuel in the fuel mix especially if biofuel is subsidized

how should heavy duty trucks be taxed abstract this paper develops and implements an analytical framework for estimating optimal taxes on the fuel use and mileage of heavy duty trucks in the united states accounting for external costs from congestion accidents pavement damage noise energy security and local and global pollution the analysis allows for endogenous fuel economy increased auto travel in response to reduced truck congestion and distinguishes driving by truck type and region we estimate the optimal second best diesel fuel tax at 1 12 per gallon and implementing it increases welfare by 1 34 billion per annum optimizing over both fuel and mileage taxes and differentiating mileage taxes by vehicle type and region yields progressively higher welfare gains the most efficient tax structure involves a diesel fuel tax of 69 cents per gallon and charges on trucks that vary between 7 and 33 cents per mile implementing this tax structure yields estimated welfare gains of 2 06 billion

does britain or the united states have the right gasoline tax this paper develops an analytical framework to assess the second best optimal level of gasoline taxation taking into account unpriced pollution congestion and accident externalities as well as interactions with the broader fiscal system we provide calculations of the optimal taxes for the us and the uk under a variety of parameter scenarios under our central parameter values the second best optimal gasoline tax is 1 01 gal for the us and 1 34 gal for the uk current tax rates are much lower than this in the us and higher in the uk the calculations are moderately sensitive to alternative parameter assumptions the congestion externality is the largest component in both nations revenue raising needs also play a significant role as do accident externalities and local air pollution potential welfare gains from reducing the current uk tax rate are estimated at nearly one fourth the production cost of all gasoline used in the uk even larger gains could be achieved by switching to a tax on vehicle miles with equal revenue yield for the us the welfare gains from optimizing the gasoline tax are smaller but those from switching to an optimal tax on vehicle miles are very large

effective tax rates in macroeconomics cross country estimates of tax rates on factor incomes and consumption abstract this paper proposes a method for computing tax rates using national accounts and revenue statistics using this method we construct time series of tax rates for large industrial countries the method identifies the revenue raised by different taxes at the general government level and defines aggregate measures of the corresponding tax bases this method yields estimates of effective tax rates on factor incomes and consumption consistent with the tax distortions faced by a representative agent in a general equilibrium framework these tax rates compare favorably with existing estimates of marginal tax rates and highlight important international differences in tax policy

comparing the efficiency of alternative policies for reducing traffic congestion abstract this paper compares the efficiency of a single lane toll a uniform congestion tax across freeway lanes a gasoline tax and a transit fare subsidy at reducing congestion there are three conditions for an efficient outcome relating to travel across modes across peak and off peak periods and sorting out drivers with high and low time costs across faster and slower freeway lanes each policy involves some inefficiency indeed the single lane toll gasoline tax and transit subsidy forego at least two thirds of the efficiency gains under an ideal congestion tax that varies across lanes however the uniform congestion tax achieves over 90 of these gains

when should drivers be encouraged to carpool in hov lanes policies to encourage carpooling in high occupancy vehicle hov lanes have been adopted in the united states to lower congestion and reduce air pollution we analytically model highway congestion and other vehicle related externalities encouraging carpooling decreases total costs when congestion relief in mainline lanes outweighs increased hov lane congestion importantly entry of new drivers via induced demand can negate the benefits of increased carpooling using 10 years of traffic data from los angeles we estimate time and route specific marginal external costs because costs vary substantially across routes hours and days current policies to promote carpooling will often increase social costs jel r41 r48 q53

climate policies for road transport revisited ii closing the policy gap with cap and trade current policies in the road transport sector fail to deliver consistent and efficient incentives for greenhouse gas abatement see companion article by creutzig et al in press market based instruments such as cap and trade systems close this policy gap and complement traditional policies that are required where specific market failures arise even in presence of strong existing non market policies cap and trade delivers additional abatement and efficiency by incentivizing demand side abatement options this paper analyzes generic design options and economic impacts of including the european road transport sector into the eu ets suitable points of regulation are up and midstream in the fuel chain to ensure effectiveness cover all emissions and avoid double counting efficiency incentivize all abatement options and low transaction costs based on year 2020 marginal abatement cost curves from different models and current eu climate policy objectives we show that in contrast to conventional wisdom road transport inclusion would not change the eu ets allowance price hence industrial carbon leakage induced by adding road transport to the eu ets may be less important than previously estimated

second best biofuel policies and the welfare effects of quantity mandates and subsidies abstract the quest for biorenewable energy sources is held to justify a number of government interventions including support policies for biofuels such as those responsible for the recent rapid growth of us ethanol production this article provides an analytical assessment of such policies we construct a general equilibrium open economy model that captures the rationale typically invoked to justify government intervention in this setting to alleviate the environmental impact of energy consumption and to decrease us energy dependence on foreign sources the model is used to study both the positive and normative implications of alternative policy instruments including the subsidies and mandates specified by the 2007 energy independence and security act from a positive perspective we find that biofuels mandates are equivalent to a combination of fuel taxes and biofuels subsidies that are revenue neutral from a welfare perspective we show that biofuels mandates dominate biofuels subsidies and that combining fuel taxes with mandates would be welfare enhancing

evaluating the econometric evaluations of training programs with experimental data this paper takes the results of an employment and training program thatwas run as a field experiment in which the participants were randomlyassigned into a treatment or a control group and compares these results to the estimates that might have been produced by an econometrician who evaluated the program using the same econometric procedures that have been used in the program evaluation literature this comparison shows that many of these econometric procedures fail toreplicate the experimentally determined results and suggests that researchers should be aware of the potential for specification errorsin other nonexperimental evaluations copyright 1986 by american economic association

to rebate or not to rebate fuel economy standards versus feebates we compare the welfare effects in equilibrium of two environmental regulations that aim at increasing the new cars fleet s average fuel efficiency the fuel economy standards and the feebate policies maintaining the same environmental benefit and tax revenue we simulate the implementation of each policy in france and the united states standard type policies have larger negative welfare effects up to 3 2 times those from the feebate effects on manufacturers are heterogeneous some are better of under the standard regulation the addition of a market to trade levels of fuel efficiency dominates the simple standard regulation but not always the feebate we also consider the attribute based standard technological improvements and the equivalence with fuel taxes as extensions

household adjustment to gasoline price change an analysis using 9 years of us survey data this paper examines the dynamics and composition of household adjustment to changes in the real price of gasoline using a panel of us households by decomposing the demand for gasoline into the demand for vehicle miles traveled and the demand for household composite miles per gallon we are able to add rich detail to the description of how households respond to gasoline price changes while obtaining total price elasticity estimates well within the range found in the literature we find that consumers initially respond to a price rise with a much larger decrease in consumption than would be indicated by the total elasticity in addition households respond to price changes by adjusting vehicle miles traveled more than composite miles per gallon in the year after a price change

the theory of reform and indian indirect taxes abstract given a set of value judgements an initial state and a model of the economy one can ask whether some feasible tax change would increase welfare we do this by defining the marginal cost in terms of welfare of raising an extra rupee from the i th good the inverse optimum problem is the calculation of non negative welfare weights on households which imply that the initial state is optimum if no such welfare weights exist then a pareto improvement is possible we illustrate the concepts and results using data from the indian economy for 1979 1980 directions of tax reform for a number of specific social welfare functions and for pareto improvements are presented

on tariff preferences and delegation decisions in customs unions a heckscher ohlin approach this paper studies preferences of customs union cu members over common external tariff cet levels and extends the literature on delegation decisions over trade policy in models with production in a model with similar cu members we prove that most preferred cets can be ranked with the help of compensated price elasticities of import demand functions in the heckscher ohlin trade model we show these elasticities depend on inter country differences in relative factor endowments and inter sectoral differences in technology this helps identify the optimal policy maker in a cu and demonstrates delegation decisions over trade policy can be integrated into mainstream trade theory the proliferation of preferential trade agreements ptas in the 1990s has presented policy analysts with a dual challenge to identify how these arrangements affect policy makers incentives to intervene in trade and to predict their implications for welfare economists responded to this challenge vigorously thanks to their research efforts a substantial body of work is now available addressing these issues under alternative assumptions regarding the theoretical environment considered including the objectives of policy makers the nature of their interactions the gatt rules that might constrain these interactions market structure the process of coalition formation etc 1 still while undeniably valuable the recent literature on regionalism has shed limited light on an important issue how heterogeneity among partners in a pta shapes their national preferences over external tariff levels and how these preferences in turn manifest themselves in the formation of actual trade

assessing the employment effects of vocational training using a one factor model matching estimators use observed variables to adjust for differences between groups to eliminate sample selection bias when minimum relevant information is not available matching estimates are biased if access to data on usually unobserved factors that determine the selection process is unavailable other estimators should be used this study advocates the one factor control function estimator that allows for unobserved heterogeneity with factor loading technique treatment effects of vocational training in sweden are estimated with mean and distributional parameters and then compared with matching estimates the results indicate that unobservables slightly increase the treatment effect for those treated

biofuel subsidies versus the gas tax the carrot or the stick abstract this paper provides an analytical framework to examine the relative efficiencies of a revenue neutral biofuel subsidy and a gas tax in the presence of pre existing distortions and growing substitutability between fuels both policies are set to achieve a targeted reduction in gasoline use at the state level the model is then calibrated for a small open economy such as illinois which is one of the largest producers of biofuels such as ethanol in the u s the main result of the paper shows that raising the biofuel subsidy use reduces overall welfare by more than a higher gas tax both aimed to achieve a targeted reduction in pure gasoline the relative efficiency of the higher gas tax is primarily due to it exacerbating the pre existing distortion in the biofuel market by less than the subsidy moreover for current parameter estimates welfare improving policy combinations for achieving a targeted amount of energy security are higher gas taxes combined with lower biofuel subsidies and a lower tax on income however the preference for a gasoline labor tax swap shrinks as the elasticity of substitution between the two fuels rises

public acceptability of personal carbon trading and carbon tax abstract climate change is one of the greatest challenges confronting the international community requiring action to achieve deep cuts in carbon emissions the implementation of potentially uncomfortable but necessary policy measures is though critically dependent upon public acceptability this paper reports a novel application of stated preference techniques to explore the influence of key design attributes on the acceptability of a personal carbon trading scheme in isolation and when compared to a carbon tax illustrative forecasts from the models developed indicate the importance of design attributes especially the basis of the initial permit allocation for personal carbon trading and the use to which revenues are put for carbon tax results indicate that the best scheme designs could be acceptable to a majority of respondents

excise tax avoidance the case of state cigarette taxes we conduct an applied welfare economics analysis of cigarette tax avoidance we develop an extension of the standard formula for the optimal pigouvian corrective tax to incorporate the possibility that consumers avoid the tax by making purchases in nearby lower tax jurisdictions to provide a key parameter for our formula we estimate a structural endogenous switching regression model of border crossing and cigarette prices in illustrative calculations we find that for many states after taking into account tax avoidance the optimal tax is at least 20 smaller than the standard pigouvian tax that simply internalizes external costs our empirical estimate that tax avoidance strongly responds to the price differential is the main reason for this result we also use our results to examine the benefits of replacing avoidable state excise taxes with a harder to avoid federal excise tax on cigarettes

the optimal gas tax for california this paper calculates the optimal gasoline tax for the state of california according to our analysis the optimal gasoline tax in california is 1 37 gal which is over three times the current california tax when excluding sales taxes the pigovian tax is the largest part of this tax comprising 0 85 gal of this the congestion externality is taxed the most heavily at 0 27 followed by oil security accident externalities local air pollution and finally global climate change the other major component a ramsey tax comprises a full 0 52 of this tax reflecting the efficiency in raising revenues from a tax on gasoline consumption due to the inelastic demand of this consumption good

economists views about parameters values and policies survey results in labor and public economics specialists in labor economics and public economics at 40 leading research universities provided opinions of policy proposals quantitative best estimates and 95 percent confidence intervals for economic parameters and answers to values questions regarding income redistribution efficiency versus equity and individual versus social responsibility their positions on policy are more closely related to their values than to their estimates of relevant economic parameters average best estimates of the economic parameters agree well with the relevant literature but individual best estimates are usually widely dispersed the individual 95 percent confidence intervals are much narrower than the substantial cross respondent variation in estimates would warrant

analysing gasoline demand elasticities a survey this paper is a survey of studies on gasoline demand although there are very many dxerent studies in this eld which sometimes appear to arrive at contradictory results we find that with proper stratification of studies by model and data type much of the contict turns to consensus in this survey we classtfy studies by data type and by ten d erent categories of model and with the exception of estimates on seasonal data which tend to be unstable and of certain inappropriate model formulations we find a fair degree of agreement concerning average short run and even long run income and price elasticities

the simple economics of motor vehicle pollution a case for fuel tax the volume of pollution produced by an automobile is determined by driver s behavior along three margins i vehicle selection ii kilometers driven and iii on road fuel economy the first two margins have been studied extensively however the third has received scant attention how significant is this intensive margin what would be the optimal policies when it is taken into account the paper develops and analyzes a simple model of the technical and behavioral mechanisms that determine the volume emissions produced by a car the results show that an optimal fuel tax would provide drivers with appropriate incentives along all three margins and that only public information is needed for a fuel tax to be set optimally in contrast an optimal distance tax would require private information lastly relative to the optimal fuel tax a simple uniform fuel tax is shown to be progressive thus being already deployed worldwide a uniform fuel tax is an attractive second best policy these findings should be accounted for when designing new mechanisms to alleviate motor vehicle pollution

optimal taxes and the structure of preferences if optimal tax theory is to be the basis for calculating tax rates a close understanding is required of the relationship between the structure of preferences and the configuration of optimal tax rates otherwise hypotheses chosen by the econometrician for practical convenience may completely determine the results independently of measurement this paper explores the relationship between various types of separability particularly weak and implicit separability and optimal tax rates in the various models discussed in the literature the use of distance functions and the antonelli matrix provides a significant unification of previously disparate results in the final analysis optimal tax theory should be the basis for actual calculation of tax rates although recently there have been great advances in theoretical results and in our understanding of their meaning we are still some way from a working knowledge of whether uniform commodity taxes are in practice optimal or if not which commodities should be discriminated against present theoretical formulae do not yield clear cut results except in special cases and it has recently become clear that optimal rates depend crucially on the detailed structure of consumer preferences for example atkinson and stiglitz 3 show that with an optimal nonlinear income tax discriminatory commodity taxes are only necessary to the extent that individual commodities are not weakly separable from leisure more recently deaton 6 has shown that a similar result holds for what is perhaps the most interesting of the standard models that where there are many consumers and only a linear income tax and proportional commodity taxes are allowed in this case separability between goods and leisure together with linear engel curves for goods removes the need for differential commodity taxation in consequence nothing can be learned about commodity taxes from consumer demand studies in which commodity demands are explained conditionally on total expenditure and commodity prices and which assume linear engel curves all such studies require separability from leisure as a maintained hypothesis and so are consistent with uniform commodity taxation these results suggest that the prospects for meaningful empirical calculations of tax rates are bleak econometricians estimating commodity demand and labor supply equations make generous use of separability assumptions to enable estimation at all in consequence it is likely that empirically calculated tax rates based on econometric estimates of parameters will be determined in structure not by the measurements actually made but by arbitrary untested and even unconscious hypotheses chosen by the econometrician for practical convenience to remedy this situation and as a prelude to fruitful empirical work it is necessary to have a more explicit understanding of how preference structure affects optimal tax rates such is the object of this paper three different

optimal environmental taxation in the presence of other taxes general equilibrium analyses this paper examines the optimal setting of environmental taxes in economies where other distortionary taxes are present we employ analytical and numerical models to explore the degree to which in a second best economy optimal environmental tax rates differ from the rates implied by the pigovian principle according to which the optimal tax rate equals the marginal environmental damages both models indicate contrary to what several analysts have suggested that the optimal tax rate on emissions of a given pollutant is generally less than the rate supported by the pigovian principle moreover the optimal rate is lower the larger are the distortions posed by ordinary taxes numerical results indicate that previous studies may have seriously overstated the size of the optimal carbon tax by disregarding pre existing taxes this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

biofuel economics in a setting of multiple objectives unintended consequences this paper examines biofuels from an economic perspective and evaluates the merits of promoting biofuel production in the context of the policies multiple objectives life cycle implications pecuniary externalities and other unintended consequences the policy goals most often cited are to reduce fossil fuel use and to lower greenhouse gas emissions but the presence of multiple objectives and various indirect effects complicates normative evaluation to address some of these complicating factors we look at a several combinations of policy alternatives that achieve the same set of incremental gains along the two primary targeted policy dimensions making it possible to compare the costs and cost effectiveness of each combination of policies for example when this approach is applied to u s produced biofuels they are found to be 14 31 times as costly as alternatives like raising the gas tax or promoting energy efficiency improvements the analysis also finds the scale of the potential contributions of biofuels to be extremely small in both the u s and eu mandated u s corn ethanol production for 2025 reduces u s petroleum input use by 1 75 and would have negligible net effects on co2 emissions and although eu imports of brazilian ethanol may look better given the high costs of other alternatives this option is equivalent at most to a 1 20 reduction in eu gasoline consumption

unemployment and the demand for retraining an econometric analysis this paper describes and estimates a human capital model of whether unemployed workers seek retraining and the timing of an application in an unemployment spell the authors find that the probability of seeking retraining declines with age after twenty seven years with being attached to noncontracting industries with greater contentment in unemployment compared with last job and with union membership applications are increased by formal qualifications cse o a level and decreased by vocational training relative to no qualifications almost half the unemployed had sought retraining and this was largely complete after nine months below the mean interrupted unemployment duration copyright 1991 by royal economic society

planes ships and taxes charging for international aviation and maritime emissions international aviation and maritime transport account for a significant and growing share of global carbon emissions yet they are not only excluded from the kyoto agreement and all current carbon pricing schemes but do not even pay fuel excises of the type standard for other transport activities moreover each sector benefits from preferential tax treatment failure to charge vat on international aviation and the application of tonnage tax regimes rather than the normal corporate tax in maritime this paper considers the design of fuel charges in these sectors to address these distortions and quantifies their impact on emissions revenue and welfare showing amongst other things that the gain from offsetting the pre existing tax distortions may be as significant as those from reducing emissions it shows too how compensation schemes can be designed to protect the poorest countries a key ingredient in the politics of the issue given the practical need for wide applicability of such charges the real challenge is to amass the degree of international cooperation required especially strong for maritime failure of which to some degree explains their current under taxation and unsurprisingly to decide who gets the money technically these charges should if anything be rather easy to implement michael keen ian parry and jon strand

are energy efficiency standards justified abstract this paper develops an analytical framework for comparing the welfare effects of energy efficiency standards and pricing policies for reducing gasoline electricity and nationwide carbon emissions the model is parameterized with us data and includes key externalities in the energy transportation sectors and possible underinvestment in energy efficiency due to misperceptions over energy savings even with large misperceptions the extra welfare gains from complementing efficient pricing policies with energy efficiency standards are zero for reducing gasoline and 5 percent for reducing electricity and when viewed as substitutes these standards forgo 60 percent or more of the potential welfare gains from corresponding pricing policies a combination of energy efficiency and emissions standards is more than three times as costly as carbon pricing when there is no misperception over energy savings and even with large misperceptions combining carbon pricing with gasoline electricity taxes is better than combining it with energy efficiency standards

lose some save some obesity automobile demand and gasoline consumption abstract this paper examines the unexplored link between the prevalence of overweight and obesity and vehicle demand in the united states exploring annual sales data of new passenger vehicles at the model level in 48 u s counties from 1999 to 2005 we find that new vehicles demanded by consumers are less fuel efficient on average as a larger share of people become overweight or obese the ols results show that a 10 percentage point increase in obesity and overweight reduces the average mpg of new vehicles demanded by 1 4 percent an effect requiring a 12 cent increase in gasoline prices to counteract the 2sls results after controlling for possible endogeneity in overweight and obesity prevalence put those two numbers at 5 percent and 54 cent respectively these findings robust to a variety of specifications suggest that policies to reduce overweight and obesity can have additional benefits for energy security and the environment

government failure and market failure on the inefficiency of environmental and energy policy in this article we describe some important themes in energy and environmental policy there are two main reasons for our interest in these policies first such policies will likely be important in the coming decades as issues related to climate change and energy security come to the fore second there are important lessons to be learned from a careful review of the actual performance of energy and environmental policies we undertake a selective survey of the literature to highlight what is known about the efficiency of particular kinds of policies laws and regulations in these areas this paper makes three key contributions the first is to synthesize a large literature on energy and environmental policy in a way that can be easily digested by both non experts and experts the second contribution is to suggest that if history is a guide then we should not expect many interventions in these policy areas to come close to maximizing net economic benefits the third is to suggest what might be needed for the development of more efficient energy and environmental policies copyright 2010 oxford university press

unemployment insurance and unemployment spells this paper tests the effects of the level and length of unemployment insurance benefits on unemployment durations the paper particularly studies individual behavior during the weeks just prior to when benefits lapse higher unemployment insurance benefits are found to have a strong negative effect on the probability of leaving unemployment however the probability of leaving unemployment rises dramatically just prior to when benefits lapse individual data are used with accurate information of spell durations and the level and length of benefits the semiparametric estimation techniques used in the paper yield more plausible estimates than conventional approaches and provide useful diagnostics copyright 1990 by the econometric society

environmental tax interactions when pollution affects health or productivity abstract recent studies indicate that interactions with the tax distorted labor market increase the cost of pollution regulation however these studies make restrictive assumptions regarding preferences and ignore key links between pollution human health and labor productivity together these assumptions imply that pollution does not affect labor supply this paper develops an analytical general equilibrium model that considers several potential benefits from reduced pollution including improved health or productivity it shows that these benefits affect labor supply and thus create a benefit side tax interaction effect that can be of the same magnitude as the familiar cost side interaction when reduced pollution boosts labor productivity the effect substantially magnifies such benefits in contrast when pollution affects consumer health the effect tends to diminish the benefits of reduced pollution the paper considers only environmental regulation but these concepts apply equally to other policies affecting productivity or health such as research subsidies or occupational safety regulations

toward an optimal u s ethanol fuel subsidy abstract enhanced environmental quality fuel security and economic development along with reduced prices of ethanol gasoline blends are often used as justifications for the u s federal excise tax exemption on ethanol fuels however the possible effect of increased overall consumption of fuel in response to lower total price mitigating the environmental and fuel security benefits are generally not considered taking this price response into account the optimal u s ethanol subsidy is derived estimated values of the optimal subsidy reveal that the subsidy s environmental and security benefits are questionable however positive environmental and security benefits from the ethanol tax exemption subsidy may be obtained if the subsidy is combined with an increase in the excise tax on gasoline

comparing alternative policies to reduce traffic accidents abstract this paper derives and implements formulas for the welfare effects of uniform mileage taxes gasoline taxes per mile insurance premiums and mileage taxes differentiated across vehicle and driver groups for reducing the external costs of passenger vehicle accidents the average external accident cost is estimated at 2 2 6 6 cents per mile accidents costs differ substantially across driver groups but only moderately across vehicles groups annual welfare gains from a mileage tax equal to marginal external costs for each driver vehicle group are 9 4 billion in the benchmark case the uniform mileage tax and per mile insurance reform can achieve 76 and 65 of this welfare gain respectively while the gasoline tax can achieve only 28 of the welfare gain unlike other policies the gasoline tax induces costly improvements in average fleet fuel economy that have little effect on reducing external costs

automobile externalities and policies this paper discusses the nature and magnitude of externalities associated with automobile use including local and global pollution oil dependence traffic congestion and traffic accidents it then discusses current federal policies affecting these externalities including fuel taxes fuel economy and emissions standards and alternative fuel policies summarizing insofar as possible the welfare effects of those policies finally we discuss emerging pricing policies including congestion tolls and insurance reform and summarize the appropriate combination of policies to address automobile externalities

revenue recycling and the welfare effects of road pricing the authors explore the interaction between taxes on work related traffic congestion and preexisting distortionary taxes in the labor market a congestion tax raises the overall costs of commuting to work and discourages labor force participation at the margin when revenues are returned in lump sum transfers the resulting efficiency loss in the labor market can be larger that the pigouvian efficiency gains from internalizing the congestion externality by contrast if congestion tax revenues are used to reduce labor taxes the net impact on the labor supply is positive and the efficiency gain in the labor market can raise the overall welfare gains of the congestion tax by as much as 100 percent recycling congestion tax revenues in public transit subsidies produces a positive but smaller impact on the labor supply in short the authors results indicate that the presence of preexisting tax distortions and the form of revenue recycling can crucially affect the size and possibly even the sign of the welfare effect of road pricing schemes the efficiency gains from recycling congestion tax revenues in other tax reductions can amount to several times the pigouvian welfare gains from congestion reduction

from gallons to miles a disaggregate analysis of automobile travel and externality taxes abstract policymakers have prioritized increasing highway revenues as rising fuel economy and a fixed federal gasoline tax have led to highway funding deficits we use a novel disaggregate sample of motorists to estimate the effect of the price of a vehicle mile traveled on vmt and we provide the first national assessment of vmt and gasoline taxes that are designed to raise a given amount of revenue we find that a vmt tax dominates a gasoline tax on efficiency distributional and political grounds when policymakers enact independent fuel economy policies and when the vmt tax is differentiated with externalities imposed per mile

revenue raising vs other approaches to environmental protection the critical significance of pre existing tax distortions using analytical and numerical general equilibrium models we show that preexisting factor taxes produce a tax interaction effect that increases the costs of pollution taxes and quotas under policies that raise revenue and recycle it through cuts in marginal factor tax rates this effect is partially offset by a revenue recycling effect grandfathered pollution quotas such as those used under the 1990 clean air act amendments to regulate electric utilities so2 emissions do not benefit from this offset preexisting taxes raise this regulation s cost by over 70 more than half of this additional cost could be avoided by auctioning quotas and exploiting the revenue recycling effect