decomposing productivity growth in the u s computer industry in this paper we examine the sources of the productivity growth in the u s computer industry from 1978 to 1999 we estimate a joint production model of output quantity and quality that distinguishes two types of technological changes process and product innovations based on the estimation results we decompose total factor productivity tfp growth rate into the contributions of process and product innova tions and scale economies we find that product innovation associated with better quality accounts for about 30 of the tfp growth in the computer industry furthermore the tfp acceleration in the computer industry in the late 1990s is mainly derived from a rapid increase in product innovation

some nonlinear tax effects on asset values and investment decisions under uncertainty abstract tax system nonlinearities are often ignored but with uncertainty may have important implications for the magnitude and direction of tax effects this paper studies a particular nonlinear tax rule the policy subsidizes asset values but may discourage some investments and encourage earlier shutdown of some projects the marginal effective tax rate varies with project risk furthermore a corporate cash flow tax can encourage investment due to interactions with the nonlinear policy the paper also presents a general statement of the stochastic equilibrium valuation method which can be used to analyze other nonlinear taxes numerical examples demonstrate computational feasibility

standard errors for the retransformation problem with heteroscedasticity abstract economists often estimate models with a log transformed dependent variable the results from the log transformed model are often retransformed back to the unlogged scale other studies have shown how to obtain consistent estimates on the original scale but have not provided variance equations for those estimates in this paper we derive the variance for three estimates the conditional mean of y the slope of y and the average slope of y on the retransformed scale we then illustrate our proposed procedures with skewed health expenditure data from a sample of medicaid eligible patients with severe mental illness

the optimum degree of rate of return regulation a two sector analysis recently considerable attention has been given to the economic effects of rate of return regulation of monopoly firms one of the conclusions of the literature on this subject is that some regulation is always better than no regulation from a welfare point of view the purpose of this paper is to show that such a conclusion does not necessarily hold in a two sector analysis under rate of return regulation the firm s prices are set such that the rate of return to capital does not exceed some fair rate allowed by the regulatory authority it has been asserted that a profit maximizing monopoly firm will react to such a constraint by employing more of all inputs thereby expanding output but will employ more than the efficient level of capital relative to the other inputs 1 8 a corollary to this proposition is that if the regulatory constraint is tightened in the sense of lowering the allowed rateof return toward the market price of capital services the monopoly firm will respond with additional output but will move further from its expansion path if these effects occur such a form of regulation would involve significant welfare considerations from the viewpoint of the economy in which the monopoly firm operates the increased output and corresponding lower unit price represents a benefit however the inefficient use of capital imposes a cost on the economy the question is then whether this form of regulation represents a second best solution more specifically the

stochastic convenience yield and the pricing of oil contingent claims this paper develops and empirically tests a two factor model for pricing financial and real assets contingent on the price of oil the factors are the spot price of oil and the instantaneous convenience yield the parameters of the model are estimated using weekly oil futures contract prices from january 1984 to november 1988 and the model s performance is assessed out of sample by valuing futures contracts over the period november 1988 to may 1989 finally the model is applied to determine the present values of one barrel of oil deliverable in one to ten years time

evaluating natural resource investments notwithstanding impressive advances in the theory of finance over the past 2 decades practical procedures for capital budgeting have evolved only slowly the standard technique which has remained unchanged in essentials since it was originally proposed see dean 1951 bierman and smidt 1960 derives from a simple adaptation of the fisher 1907 model of valuation under certainty under this technique expected cash flows from an investment project are discounted at a rate deemed appropriate to their risk and the resulting present value is compared with the cost of the project this standard textbook technique reflects modern theoretical developments only insofar as estimates of the discount rate may be obtained from crude application of single period asset pricing theory but see brennan 1973 bogue and roll 1974 turnbull 1977 constantinides 1978 the inadequacy of this approach to capital budgeting is widely acknowledged although not widely discussed its obvious deficiency is its the evaluation of mining and other natural resource projects is made particularly difficult by the high degree of uncertainty attaching to output prices it is shown that the techniques of continuous time arbitrage and stochastic control theory may be used not only to value such projects but also to determine the optimal policies for developing managing and abandoning them the approach may be adapted to a wide variety of contexts outside the natural resource sector where uncertainty about future project revenues is a paramount concern

a hedonic price analysis of hearing aid technology in this article we study how technological components affect the price of hearing aids the main goals are to determine which functional and technological features have the greatest influence on manufacturer based prices in the hearing aid industry and to analyse the price cost margins at the dispenser level using a unique data set that is compiled from a hearing clinic in west texas the result shows that style and signal processing scheme are the two most important determinants of hearing aid price other characteristics such as directional microphone noise cancellation and a certain shell type are also positively related to price further on average this particular local dispenser has a markup of about 35 per hearing instrument

analytical approximations in models of hysteresis decisions made under ongoing uncertainty and costly reversibility entail a range of the state variable where inaction is optimal which in turn produces hysteresis permanent effects of temporary shifts the range is usually defined by non linear equations that need numerical solutions in this paper a technique of analytical approximations is developed and applied to two models menu costs and investment the resulting explicit solutions help clarify why hysteresis is important even for small irreversibility in the menu cost model hysteresis is two orders of magnitude larger than under the akerlof yellen or mankiw assumptions when decisions that are costly to reverse are made under conditions of ongoing uncertainty the optimum policy usually entails a range of inertia the action should be taken only when the value of the underlying state variable becomes especially favourable and reversed only when it becomes especially unfavourable there is an intermediate range over which inaction is optimal this in turn gives rise to hysteresis starting from a value in the range of inertia if the state variable crosses the action trigger point and then returns to its original level the action will be taken but not reversed thus a temporary change will leave a permanent effect numerical solutions for models of irreversible investment show that the range of inaction is remarkably large even when the cost of reversal is small see brennan and schwartz 1985 constantinides 1986 and dixit 1989a b for examples of this unfortunately the equations tlhat determine the optimum policy are highly non linear they do not have analytical solutions therefore we lack a clearer and more general understanding of why hysteresis is numerically so important in this paper i derive analytical approximations for the solutions of more general problems of this kind when the costs of change are small the idea that small costs of change induce large amounts of inertia has been popularized in the model of akerlof and yellen 1985 mankiw 1985 and others in these models second order small costs of making price changes yield price stickiness in response to first order changes in the money supply this is a simple application of the envelope theorem but these models are static and their application to a dynamic reality must assume either permanent shocks or static expectations when there is ongoing uncertainty which is rationally expected by the decision maker the option value of the status quo enlarges the zone where inaction is optimal adding these features to the mankiw akerlof yellen may model i show that fourth order small costs of change generate first order inertia

investment opportunity in china s overseas oil project an empirical analysis based on real option approach abstract china s overseas oil investments uphold national energy security located in the complex international economic and political environment the benefits of overseas oil projects are affected by various uncertainties oil companies call for a set of evaluation method dealing with these uncertainties especially when encountering low oil price conditions it is much more crucial to answer when to optimally invest rather than whether to invest this paper analyzes the investment opportunity of an oil project in the development and production phase considering uncertainty irreversibility and management flexibility the decision making process combines discounted cash flow dcf method and the trinomial tree model of real option approach roa for practical purposes tools of hurdle price cumulative probability and decision tree are adopted in addition results of the case project show the economic feasibility at present and optimal start up timing at the end of 2016 besides the lower cost parameters generally make it easier to meet the opportunity the scenario analysis suggests the higher risk contributes to an earlier start up furthermore the issues of method applicability investment signals and decision lag effects are discussed

valuing managerial flexibility an application of real option theory to mining investments abstract the value of managerial flexibility is assessed using data on prices costs grades reserves ore extraction and metal output for a panel of canadian copper mines a real option model is estimated and solved for project and option values most empirical researchers i consider the initial investment decision but neglect flexible operation thereafter ii assume that price is stochastic but ignore cost and reserve uncertainty and iii model price as a nonstationary stochastic process the evolution of three state variables price cost and reserves is assessed here differences in assumptions compared to others are found to lead to large differences in estimated project and option values

implementing a stochastic model for oil futures prices this paper develops a parsimonious three factor model of the term structure of oil futures prices that can be easily estimated from available futures price data in addition it proposes a new simple spreadsheet implementation procedure the procedure is flexible may be used with market prices of any oil contingent claim with closed form pricing solution and easily deals with missing data problems the approach is implemented using daily prices of all futures contracts traded at the new york mercantile exchange between 1991 and 2001 in sample and out of sample tests indicate that the model fits the data extremely well though the paper concentrates on oil the approach can be used for any other commodity with well developed futures markets

what drives value creation in investment projects an application of sensitivity analysis to project finance transactions abstract evaluating the economic attractiveness of large projects often requires the development of large and complex financial models model complexity can prevent management from obtaining crucial information with the risk of a suboptimal exploitation of the modelling efforts we propose a methodology based on the so called differential importance measure d to enhance the managerial insights obtained from financial models we illustrate our methodology by applying it to a project finance case study we show that the additivity property of d grants analysts and managers full flexibility in combining parameters into any group and at the desired aggregation level we analyze investment criteria related to both the investors s and lenders perspectives results indicate that exogenous factors affect investors sponsors and lenders in different ways whether exogenous variables are considered individually or by groups

heterogeneous preferences and new innovation cycles in mature industries the amateur camera industry 1955 1974 this paper examines the amateur camera industry between 1955 and 1974 the case raises important issues for our understanding of the product lifecycle first an industry can experience more than one round of radical product and process innovation in its history second there is not a strict sequence of product innovation followed by process innovation third the existence of a dominant design depends on there being a relatively homogeneous set of consumers heterogeneous consumer preferences support different camera designs in two distinct market niches in the amateur camera industry fourth new rounds of entry and exit and new industry shake outs can occur with new innovative entrants displacing old firms fifth when the new firms are from developing countries a shift in global production occurs the success of new japanese entrants in this period lay in their being more successful innovators not in their exploiting wage cost advantages

measuring the welfare gain from personal computers i introduction what is the welfare gain to consumers from the development of and improvements in personal computers pcs this is the question addressed here the answer offered is that welfare increased by somewhere between 2 and 3 measured in terms of total personal consumption expenditure due to the introduction of the pc and its subsequent price decline this finding is obtained by employing a model of consumer behavior based upon more or less standard preferences which is fit to aggregate national income and product account data using a direct and simple calibration estimation strategy to estimate the welfare gain from the introduction of a new product one must know what utility is in the absence of the good a conventional isoelastic utility function has two problems first at zero consumption the utility function returns a value of minus infinity whenever the elasticity of substitution is less than one in this case the welfare gain from the introduction of the new good is infinitely large second marginal utility at zero consumption is infinite so long as the elasticity of substitution is finite therefore consumers will always purchase some of the good in question no matter how high the price is albeit perhaps in infinitesimal quantities to avoid these problems a form for preferences will be adopted that gives a finite level for marginal utility and hence one for total utility at zero consumption with this utility function high prices may result in the consumer optimally choosing to buy none of the new good in addition the consumer s surplus associated with the introduction of a new good is generally finite this paper contributes to the growing literature on measuring the welfare gains from new goods a classic example is the work by hausman 1999 who studies the introduction of cellular telephones he finds that their tardy inclusion in the consumer price index cpi some 15 years after their debut results in a bias of up to 2 per year in the telecommunications services price index to obtain this estimate hausman 1999 effectively integrates back the estimated demand curve for cellular telephones to recover the indirect utility function for consumers this function can be inverted to obtain the expenditure function from which welfare measures can be calculated the procedure was developed earlier in work by hausman 1981 analytical solutions for the expenditure function can be obtained when the demand equation is ln linear when the demand equation is not linear the indirect utility function may have to be recovered by numerically solving a differential equation this procedure is dual to the one presented here which focuses on the consumer maximization problem some utility functions such as the one employed in the current work may not lead to a linear demand equation of the form that is conventionally estimated hausman 1999 also suggests an approximate measure of welfare based on a linear demand curve while he states explicitly that this measure of welfare is a lower bound this caveat is often forgotten in applied work it may work well in the cell phone example that he studies as illustrated in the pc example studied here however this approximate demand curve method can lead to a serious underestimate of the welfare gains arising from the introduction of a new product similarly the use of conventional price indices such as the fisher ideal and tornqvist price indices may lead to inaccurate estimates of the consumer surplus that arises from the introduction of a new good and or the good s subsequent price decline the accuracy of such methods will depend on how fast the marginal utility for a new good rises as the quantity consumed goes to zero figuring this out is part and parcel of the new goods problem that is what utility function or demand equation should be used for estimating the welfare associated with the introduction of a new good

continuous time methods in finance a review and an assessment i survey and assess the development of continuous time methods in finance during the last 30 years the subperiod 1969 to 1980 saw a dizzying pace of development with seminal ideas in derivatives securities pricing term structure theory asset pricing and optimal consumption and portfolio choices during the period 1981 to 1999 the theory has been extended and modified to better explain empirical regularities in various subfields of finance this latter subperiod has seen significant progress in econometric theory computational and estimation methods to test and implement continuous time models capital market frictions and bargaining issues are being increasingly incorporated in continuous time theory the roots of modern continuous time methods in finance can be traced back to the seminal contributions of merton 1969 1971 1973b in the late 1960s and early 1970s merton 1969 pioneered the use of continuous time modeling in financial economics by formulating the intertemporal consumption and portfolio choice problem of an investor in a stochastic dynamic programming setting merton 1973b also showed how such a framework can be used to develop equilibrium asset pricing implications thereby significantly extending the asset pricing theory to richer dynamic settings and expanding the scope of applications of continuous time methods to study problems in financial economics 1 within a span of about 30 years from the publication of merton s inf luential papers continuous time methods have become an integral part of financial economics indeed in certain core areas in finance such as e g asset pricing derivatives valuation term structure theory and portfolio selection continuoustime methods have proved to be the most attractive way to conduct research and gain economic intuition the continuous time approach in these areas has produced models with a rich variety of testable implications the econometric theory for testing continuous time models has made rapid strides in the last decade and has thus kept pace with the impressive progress on the theoretical front one hopes that the actual empirical investigations and estimation using the new procedures will follow suit soon

price and quality of desktop and mobile personal computers a quarter century historical overview when introduced in 1976 personal computers pc s had only several kilobytes of randomaccess memory ram and no hard disk processed commands at speeds of less than 1 megahertz mhz yet typically cost several thousand dollars today s pc s have megabytes mb of ram and gigabytes of hard disk memory process commands at speeds exceeding 1 000 mhz and often cost less than 1 000 ever more powerful pc boxes have been transformed into increasingly smaller and lighter notebooks in the context of such rapid technological progress government statistical agencies face the formidable tasks of reliably tracking real output growth in the pc industry and adjusting pc prices for quality changes in 1986 following collaboration with ibm researchers the bureau of economic analysis bea began adjusting mainframe computer prices for quality change using hedonic price methods rosanne cole et al 1986 in 1990 the bureau of labor statistics bls first published an experimental price index for mainframe computers also based on hedonic methods today the bls publishes producer and consumer price indexes for a number of electronic goods including informationprocessing equipment using hedonic price methods dennis fixler et al 1999 the hedonic regression methods employed by researchers and government statisticians to adjust pc prices for quality changes are usually based on pooled cross section and time series data and they typically assume some parameter equality across models as well as some parameter stability over time here we report on results from an examination of the stability of annual pc hedonic price parameters over almost the first quarter century of their history 1976 1999 and on the equality of estimated hedonic price parameters between desktop and mobile models we compute price indexes based on alternative assumptions concerning parameter equality and stability and we assess at what point in time when constructing price indexes mobile and desktop models were appropriately treated as distinct product groups

convenience yield without the convenience a spatial temporal interpretation of storage under backwardation a mathematical programming model of the wheat marketing system of western australia manifests a typical pattern of regionwide stocks held at a negative intertemporal spread measured at the port no stocks are held at a monetary loss in terms of local prices any apparent loss is an illusion from spatial aggregation of stocks and attribution of incentives at one locality to storers at all locations moreover as the premium for immediate delivery at the port rises stocks increase at relatively inaccessible inconvenient locations where prices are low allowing more to be shipped from locations more convenient to the port

a continuous time equilibrium model of forward prices and futures prices in a multigood economy abstract this paper is a theoretical investigation of equilibrium forward and futures prices we construct a rational expectations model in continuous time of a multigood identical consumer economy with constant stochastic returns to scale production using this model we find three main results first we find formulas for equilibrium forward futures discount bond commodity bond and commodity option prices second we show that a futures price is actually a forward price for the delivery of a random number of units of a good the random number is the return earned from continuous reinvestment in instantaneously riskless bonds until maturity of the futures contract third we find and interpret conditions under which normal backwardation or contango is found in forward or futures prices these conditions reflect the usefulness of forward and futures contracts as consumption hedges

hysteresis due to irreversible exit addressing the option to mothball abstract this paper analyses the following hitherto understudied feature in real switching options a firm has a mothballing option and an option to permanently abandon if the firm finds itself in an operating mode with a price just above the abandonment threshold it is unclear whether to exercise the abandonment option or to exercise the mothballing option if the price goes down the firm may exit but surprisingly if it goes up it may mothball we find that two different strategies could be optimal one where mothballing is not a viable option and one where mothballing does occur in the latter case a hysteresis region arises in which the firm produces at a loss while a further price decrease induces exit and a sufficient price increase results in the firm entering the mothballing stage mothballing being optimal requires sufficiently large values of the price trend and the uncertainty parameter

reconsidering hedonic art price indexes art price indexes typically rely on heavily biased samples for several reasons a refined hedonic index is developed which explicitly addresses such concerns an empirical illustration is then provided for symbolist paintings appearing at auctions between 1990 and 2001

the growth of network computing quality adjusted price changes for network servers in this paper we investigate the evolution of quality adjusted prices for servers motivated by two facts first the productivity acceleration in the us economy since the mid 1990s is closely linked to spread of information technology of which networked computing is a large component second the growth of network computing itself has been fostered by the rapid growth in the quality and quantity of the network server market like pakes 2003 analysis of the pc market we show that our preferred version of the hedonic price index complete hybrid fell much more rapidly than the standard matched model price index the hedonic index fell on average by about 30 per annum compared to 17 p a for the matched model this difference is mainly due to the selection bias in the standard matched model price index due to the exit of obsolete models which would have had the fastest price falls

behavior of the firm under regulatory constraint a recent article by akira takayama discusses an earlier paper by harvey averch and leland l johnson on fair rate of return regulation of public utilities although takayama p 255 agrees with averch and johnson s general conclusions that a firm will tend to increase its investment with the introduction of an active constraint on its rate of return he criticizes the a j argument as being confusing ambiguous and in error takayama then attempts a clarification and presents a new formulation which leads to the a j result quoted above this comment will discuss several of takayama s criticisms in addition to showing that the so called a j effect cannot be derived from the basic assumptions made by both averch and johnson and takayama 1 we will show that the very assumptions used to prove the a j effect by defining the region of x require an assumption that the a j effect exists in the first place

forward contracts and futures contracts abstract this paper provides a detailed discussion of the similarities and differences between forward contracts and futures contracts under frictionless markets and continuous trading simple arbitrage arguments are invoked to value forward contracts to relate forward prices and spot prices and to relate forward prices and futures prices we also argue that forward prices need not equal futures prices unless default free interest rates are deterministic

regulation and corporate investment policy in a previous paper it was shown that the traditional rule that the allowed return on the equity of a regulated firm should be set equal to its cost of equity capital was conceptually deficient 2 this deficiency arises because the cost of equity capital of a regulated firm depends upon its risk which depends in turn upon the regulatory policy that will be followed in the future including the allowed rate of return it was argued therefore that this traditional rule should be replaced by the requirement that the regulatory policy be consistent a consistent regulatory policy achieves what the traditional rule only attempts it ensures that at the time of a regulatory hearing the market value of the firm equity is equal to the equity financed portion of the rate base to devise a consistent regulatory policy it is necessary to have a valuation model which takes explicit account of regulatory policy such a model was developed in the above mentioned paper in this paper we generalize the earlier valuation model so that the investment policy of the regulated firm is determined by the value maximizing decisions of the management instead of being taken as exogenous to the extent that investment policy is discretionary its endogeneity must be taken into account in devising a consistent regulatory policy and this is made possible by the generalized model in reality it seems unclear to what extent the investment policies of regulated firms are predetermined by the requirement that they meet demand and to what extent they are discretionary since the model presented here easily accommodates constraints on the investment policy it is the more appropriate model so long as there exists any element of discretionary investment behaviour and permits a more adequate approach to the determination of consistent regulatory policies with discretionary investment policy an important consequence of any particular consistent regulatory policy is the investment policy it induces in section 4 we show how the value maximizing investment policy is affected by the choice of regulatory policy on the other hand regulated firms are wont to argue that their investments are in the main predetermined by demand and must be undertaken regardless of their profitability this putative lack of discretion it is maintained means that the appropriate allowed rate of return is higher than would otherwise be the case in section 4 also we evaluate the strength of this consideration by comparing the allowed rate of return under consistent regulatory policies when investment policy is and is not discretionary section 5 shows briefly how the analysis can be extended to account for the effect of debt in the capital structure

valuing risky projects option pricing theory and decision analysis in the academic literature and professional practice there are a number of alternative and apparently competing methods for valuing risky projects in this paper we compare and contrast three different approaches risk adjusted discount rate analysis option pricing analysis and decision analysis focusing on the last two we show that in contrast to some of the claims made in the real options literature when both option pricing and decision analysis methods are correctly applied they must give consistent results we also explore ways in which option pricing and decision analysis methods can be profitably integrated in particular we show how option pricing techniques can be used to simplify decision analysis when some risks can be hedged by trading and conversely how decision analysis techniques can be used to extend option pricing techniques to problems with incomplete securities markets

bias and inefficiency in quality adjusted hedonic regression analysis numerous quality adjusted hedonic price trend studies based on computer prices have provided support to widely held suspicions that officially released price indices are not accurately measuring the price declines occurring in many information technology it products if provable then general price inflation is being overestimated and consequently real gdp is being underestimated existing evidence however is inconclusive first empirical findings for it products other than computers are essentially non existent and secondly estimation bias is inherent in the hedonic regression technique most commonly employed this article presents an unbiased method together with an estimated quality adjusted price trend for laser printers 1993 2004

behavior of the firm under regulatory constraint a recent article in this review by averch and johnson 3 on the fair rate of return regulation in public utilities industries or more generally regulated industries attracted the attention of many economists in essence averch johnson argues that the introduction of an active constraint of a fair rate of return type would induce the firm to invest more than the original profit maximizing value of capital and this would create an inefficient allocation of inputs in addition to frequent citations in verbal arguments it has invited some thieoretical extensions by economists such as wvestfield 8 and klevorick 5 all of the writers seem to accept the basic theoretical foundations set by averch and johnson for example klevorick 5 recently proposed that the fair rate of return should be inversely related to the size of the capital of a firm the intuitive basis for this is apparent for it in effect creates a penalty as the amount of capital used by the firm increases however it seems to me that averchjohnson s original arguments are sketchy and contain somewhat ambiguous logic at several important points although their conclusion for which they tried to find empirical support that a firm will tend to increase its investment with the introduction of an active constraint seems to be correct it does not follow from their arguments in particular there seems to be a serious error which arises from confusing movements along a curve and shifts of a curve in section ii we clarify those ambiguities and if necessary correct the mistakes in the third section of this paper we shall provide a new formulation of the problem we shall find that the new formulation will give the same answer as averchjohnson namely that a firm will tend to invest more with the iiltroductioin of an active constraint it should be noted however that while the conclusion happens to be the same this was not the necessity for we needed a completely new formulation to obtain the old conclusion

valuing exploration and production projects by means of option pricing theory abstract this paper provides a general introduction to the valuation of investment projects with option pricing theory opt furthermore a specific application of opt to value exploration and production projects in the petroleum industry is shown to model the various nested options of such investments the discrete approach of the binomial model is preferred to the continuous model by black and scholes furthermore two kinds of binomial trees are used one tree represents the pre drilling period and the other represents the production phase of the reservoir due to the use of a multiplicative binomial process for the oil price trend unrealistic prices may occur to exclude them from the calculation an oil price band is introduced additionally uncertainty of all input parameters not only of the oil price is considered this is achieved by combining opt with the monte carlo simulation

faster smaller cheaper an hedonic price analysis of pdas we compute quality adjusted price indexes for personal digital assistants pdas for the period 1999 to 2004 hedonic regressions indicate that prices are related to processor generation and clock speed memory capacity screen size and quality and the presence of a digital camera or wireless capability a particularly salient feature of pdas is portability where we find i purchasers value the energy density of the battery technology e g lithium ion rather than the battery life in hours and ii the physical characteristics of the pda e g weight volume are nonlinearly related to price suggesting that valuation of the physical form of pdas does not bear a simple linear relationship to characteristics either in absolute terms smaller is better or vs an ergonomic sweet spot rather portability characteristics are correlated with other desirable attributes making the relationship between price and portability difficult to disentangle however hedonic price indexes are robust across dif

resource extraction with a carbon tax and regime switching prices exercising your options this paper develops a model of a profit maximizing firm with the option to exploit a non renewable resource choosing the timing and pace of development the resource price is modelled as a regime switching process which is calibrated to oil futures prices a hamilton jacobi bellman equation is specified that describes the profit maximization decision of the firm the model is applied to a problem of optimal investment in a typical oils sands in situ operation and solved for critical levels of oil prices that would motivate a firm to make the large scale investment needed for oil sands extraction as well as to operate mothball or abandon the facility regime shifts can have an important effect on the optimal timing of investment and extraction the paper examines the effect of several carbon tax schemes on optimal timing of construction production and abandonment a form of green paradox is identified

valuing patents on cost reducing technology a case study we present an approach for valuing patents on production process improvements specifically we focus on valuing a patent on cost reducing process improvements from the viewpoint of the patent holding firm we do this by considering the relevant cash flows that result from owning the patent the patent value is determined by 1 licensing fees and royalty income 2 competitive advantage resulting from the patent 3 patent maintenance costs we discuss a case study that presents the difficulties and challenges in finding the relevant information that is needed to estimate the cash flows we show that valuation of patents on production process improvements cannot be done without good knowledge of technology markets and competitors

pricing efficiency under rate of return regulation some empirical evidence for the electric utility industry the authors test quasi optimal pricing rules for rate of return regulation for a sample of electric utilities they estimate the regulated cost function and demand equations by class of customer for the sample to yield the cost and demand parameters required to assess the utility rate structures the results indicate that the price structure of electricity by class of customer is not quasi optimal and that welfare improvement might be possible under alternative prices searching for the price structure which satisfies the criteria they find that commercial users rates have been too high relative to residential and to a lesser extent industrial rates they note that commercial uses tend to be less organized and more poorly represented in the rate making process 16 references 8 tables

quality quantity spending and prices abstract one measure of the change in the quality of consumption is the degree to which the consumption basket as a whole moves towards more luxurious goods away from necessities we introduce two related measures based on the luxury necessity distinction one is an index of the extent to which the prices of luxuries change as compared to necessities while the second indexes the change in spending these two measures are interpreted as the price of and spending on quality the volume of quality is then spending deflated by its price using the recent international comparison program data for 100 countries we find that on average quality increases with income but at a slower rate luxuries are relatively more expensive in richer countries necessities cheaper and approximately 75 percent of additional spending on quality flows into a volume component with the remaining 25 percent accounted for by prices

optimal forest rotation when stumpage prices follow a diffusion process a key assumption in the faustmann rule for financial maturity is that stumpage prices are constant over time timber price series however exhibit wide fluctuations over time which this paper models as a lognormal diffusion process comparing the diffusion results modeled here to the fixed price faustmann results show 1 the prescribed rotation length is generally longer 2 computed stand values are higher using the diffusion model with the greatest divergence occurring when a stand is about the midpoint of a rotation 3 as the stumpage price volatility increases the gain in computed npv increases though in a nonlinear fashion

the option value of advanced r d existing tools for making r d investment decisions cannot properly capture the option value in r d since many new products are identified as failures during the r d stages the possibility of refraining from market introduction may add a significant value to the npv of the r d project this paper presents new theoretical insight by developing a stochastic jump amplitude model in a real setting the option value of the proposed model depends on the expected number of jumps and the expected size of the jumps in a particular business the model is verified with empirical knowledge of current research in the field of multimedia at philips corporate research this way the gap between real option theory and the practice of decision making with respect to investments in r d is diminished

the relation between forward prices and futures prices abstract this paper consolidates the results of some recent work on the relation between forward prices and futures prices it develops a number of propositions characterizing the two prices these propositions contain several testable implications about the difference between forward and futures prices many of the propositions show that equilibrium forward and futures prices are equal to the values of particular assets even though they are not in themselves asset prices the paper then illustrates these results in the context of two valuation models and discusses the effects of taxes and other institutional factors

a test of the hotelling valuation principle time series tests of the hotelling r percent rule for natural resource prices have not been strongly supportive but the tests and the data are subject to serious difficulties we propose here an alternative testing strategy based on another but less widely known implication of the hotelling model we test this implication which we call the hotelling valuation principle by regressing the market values of the reserves of a sample of u s domestic oiland gas producing companies on their estimated hotelling values we find that the estimated hotelling values account for a significant portion of the observed variations in market values and that the hotelling measures are better indicators of the market values of petroleum properties than two widely cited publicly available alternative appraisals

time to build option value and investment decisions abstract investment decisions and outlays are often made sequentially for example the rate at which construction proceeds is usually flexible and can be adjusted with the arrival of new information traditional discounted cash flow methods which treat the pattern of investment as fixed ignore this flexibility and understate the value of the project this paper uses contingent claims analysis to derive optimal decision rules and to value such investments we determine the effects of time to build opportunity cost and uncertainty on the investment decision for reasonable parameter values we show how a simple npv rule can lead to gross errors

value based trading of real assets in shipping under stochastic freight rates the article uses a real options valuation model with stochastic freight rates to investigate market efficiency and the economics of switching between the dry bulk and the tanker markets in international shipping a dry bulk carrier is replaced with a tanker when the expected net present value of such a switch is optimal from a real options based decision rule depending on the development of the markets a reversal may take place later the cost and demand parameters upon which the decisions to switch are made including the stochastic characteristics of freight rates are estimated from an empirical analysis that is updated every week throughout a 12 year time period from 1993 to 2005 the second hand market for bulk ships seems to have been efficient most of these years in the sense that market switching usually did not pay off with one major exception it seemed profitable in expectation to leave the dry bulk market and enter the tanker market over a significant period of time shortly after the millenn