does microfinance reduce poverty in bangladesh new evidence from household panel data abstract the study examines whether loans from microfinance institutions mfi reduce poverty in bangladesh drawing upon the nationally representative household panel with four rounds from 1997 to 2004 the effects of general microfinance loans and loans for productive purposes on income food consumption and women s body mass index are estimated overall effects of mfi loans on income and food consumption were positive and the purpose of the loan is important in predicting which household welfare indicator is improved alternative estimation methods confirm a positive impact of mfi loans on food consumption growth which supports the poverty reducing effects of microfinance in bangladesh

values cultural practices and economic performance theory and some evidence from kenya summary policies saving rates human capital etc are possible explanations for poor economic performance but while these factors are changeable underdevelopment persists looking for an unchangeable factor we construct a theory for the effect of cultural values such as moral values risk taking and responsibility to others on economic performance and demonstrate it using a model in which responsibility for parents prevents development we construct data of economic performance and values of seven tribes in kenya and use it to support the model thus we suggest a methodology for the quantitative analysis of the effect of values over the economy

social capital and coping with economic shocks an analysis of stunting of south african children abstract south african households live in an environment characterized by risks and many face a significant probability of experiencing economic losses that threaten their daily subsistence using household panel data that include directly solicited information on economic shocks and employing household fixed effects estimation we explore how well households cope with shocks by examining the effects of shocks on child nutritional status unlike in the idealized village community some households appear unable to insure against risk particularly when others in their communities simultaneously suffer large losses households in communities with more social capital however seem better able to weather shocks

forecasting volatility of crude oil markets abstract this article investigates the efficacy of a volatility model for three crude oil markets brent dubai and west texas intermediate wti with regard to its ability to forecast and identify volatility stylized facts in particular volatility persistence or long memory in this context we assess persistence in the volatility of the three crude oil prices using conditional volatility models the cgarch and figarch models are better equipped to capture persistence than are the garch and igarch models the cgarch and figarch models also provide superior performance in out of sample volatility forecasts we conclude that the cgarch and figarch models are useful for modeling and forecasting persistence in the volatility of crude oil prices

an econometric analysis of emission allowance prices knowledge of the statistical distribution of the prices of emission allowances and their forecastability are crucial in constructing among other things purchasing and risk management strategies in the emissions constrained markets this paper analyzes the two emission permits markets co2 in europe and so2 in the us and investigates a model for dealing with the unique stylized facts of this type of data its effectiveness in terms of model fit and out of sample value at risk forecasting as compared to models commonly used in risk forecasting contexts is demonstrated

the role of microcredit in older children s nutrition quasi experimental evidence from rural china abstract this article evaluates the causal impact of rural households borrowing through formal microcredit on child nutrition in poor northwest china the analysis exploits the panel data in rural gansu between 2000 and 2004 unobserved differences between borrowers and non borrowers are controlled for in a dynamic fuzzy regression discontinuity design creating a quasi experimental environment for causal inference both anthropometric and micronutrient measures of child nutrition are investigated borrowing formal microcredit improves parent reported health status and weight and alleviates anemia and zinc deficiency all effects nevertheless appear to exist in the short term only

prices credit markets and child growth in low income rural areas in this paper it is argued that fluctuations in child growth in rural areas of bangladesh during and after severe floods in i988 can provide insight into the structure of credit markets a model of intertemporal resource allocation is developed and euler equations relating growth patterns of children to the cost of borrowing by household are then derived from the model the evidence indicates that although some of the variation in growth patterns over the relevant period may be attributed to variation in illness and the price of rice growth patterns for children in landless households were influenced by credit market imperfections this paper links two prominent strands of research in economic development the first strand examines the extent to which households in poor rural economies are able to protect themselves from the adverse weather and other shocks that importantly influence earnings in underdeveloped areas while it has long been thought that credit market imperfections and other forms of market failure make it difficult for poor individuals in these economies to smooth consumption both within and across years there remains some question about the magnitude and pervasiveness of these imperfections while there is evidence that fluctuations in economic conditions result in inefficient allocation of resources e g morduch 1990 rosenzweig and wolpin i993 some recent papers have emphasised the fact that consumption patterns of households in the same village comove in a manner consistent with the idea that a substantial fraction of idiosyncratic variation in income is effectively

darwin s invisible hand market competition evolution and the firm competition among firms has been suggested to reflect the ruthless logic of darwinian selection a free market is a struggle for survival in which successful firms survive and unsuccessful ones die this view appears to bolster three pillars of neoclassical economics 1 that economic actors are self interested 2 that self interest leads to public goods adam smith s invisible hand and 3 that together these lead to market optimization however this chain of reasoning leads to a paradox we show that the application of darwinian selection to competition among firms as opposed to among individuals invokes group selection which leads to exactly the opposite predictions notably altruism and the suppression of individual self interest we apply an alternative evolutionary model of economic competition multi level selection mls theory which integrates the effects of selection at both individual and group levels this approach reveals that while individuals may generally pursue their own self interest as in the standard evolutionary account humans also have evolved traits that as if led by an invisible hand steer our self interest to align with the good of the firm or wider society as well but it is the hand of darwin not smith

modeling and explaining the dynamics of european union allowance prices at high frequency in this paper we model the adjustment process of european union allowance eua prices to the releases of announcements at high frequency controlling for intraday periodicity volatility clustering and volatility persistence we find that the high frequency eua price dynamics are very well captured by a fractionally integrated asymmetric power garch process the decisions of the european commission on second national allocation plans have a strong and immediate impact on eua prices on the other hand our results suggest that eua prices are only weakly connected to indicators about the future economic development as well as the current economic activity

price drivers and structural breaks in european carbon prices 2005 2007 this article aims at characterizing the daily price fundamentals of european union allowances euas traded since 2005 as part of the emissions trading scheme ets the presence of two structural changes on april 2006 following the disclosure of 2005 verified emissions and on october 2006 following the european commission announcement of stricter phase ii allocation allows to isolate distinct fundamentals evolving overtime the results extend previous literature by showing that eua spot prices react not only to energy prices with forecast errors but also to unanticipated temperatures changes during colder events besides the sub period decomposition of the pilot phase gives a better grasp of institutional and market events that drive allowance price changes

microfinance and household poverty reduction new evidence from india the objective of the present study is to examine whether household access to microfinance reduces poverty using national household data from india treatment effects model is employed to estimate the poverty reducing effects of micro finance institutions mfis loans for productive purposes such as investment in agriculture or non farm businesses on household poverty levels these models take into account the endogenous binary treatment effects and sample selection bias associated with access to mfis despite some limitations such as those arising from potential unobservable important determinants of access to mfis significant positive effect of mfi productive loans on multidimensional welfare indicator has been confirmed the significance of treatment effects coefficients has been verified by both tobit and propensity score matching psm models in addition we found that loans for productive purposes were more important for poverty reduction in rural than in urban areas however in urban areas simple access to mfis has larger average poverty reducing effects than the access to loans from mfis for productive purposes this leads to exploring service delivery opportunities that provide an additional avenue to monitor the usage of loans to enhance the outreach

the demand for food quality in rural china many studies of food demand do not use actual prices but unit values obtained by dividing expenditures by the quantity consumed this can bias empirical analyses because unit values are not exogenous market prices they reflect household food quality choices within each food category this article develops a framework for assessing the resulting bias in income and price elasticities of demand and applies the framework to data for rural china empirical results indicate that households in rural china tend to consume higher quality food as income increases with a greater sensitivity to income for basic foods than for luxury foods copyright 2009 oxford university press

who benefits more from higher household consumption the intra household allocation of nutrients in china abstract previous studies find that human capital investments in boys are less income elastic than investments in girls attributing this result to favoritism toward boys i show theoretically that it is plausible for more productive or favored household members to have higher income elasticities i then investigate this question empirically utilizing panel data on individual nutrient intake from the china health and nutrition survey chns to analyze how changes in household per capita nutrient intake affect the intra household allocation of nutrients to deal with potential biases due to omitted variables and simultaneity i use measures of rainfall variation as instruments i find that nutritional intakes are more elastic for males especially prime age men than for females and significantly less elastic for the elderly

the evolution of private property experimental studies have shown that subjects exhibit a systematic endowment effect no acceptable explanation for the existence of this behavior has been offered this paper shows that the endowment effect can be modeled as respect for private property in the absence of legal institutions ensuring third party contract enforcement in this sense natural private property has been observed in many species in the form of recognition of territorial incumbency we develop a model loosely based on the hawk dove bourgeois game maynard smith j parker g a 1976 the logic of asymmetric contests animal behaviour 24 159 175 and the war of attrition maynard smith j price g r 1973 the logic of animal conflict nature 246 15 18 to explain the natural evolution of private property

econometric analysis of credit constraints of chinese rural households and welfare loss using recent survey data of chinese rural households we estimate the impact of credit constraints on chinese rural households income and consumption results reveal that 71 of rural households are rationed in the credit markets the credit constraints have significant negative effects on the income and consumption of rural households the expenditures on education and medical treatments the size of land holdings household head education and the balance of financial capital all affect the demand of credit personal connections relationship are the most important determinate of the supply for credit

medium and long term participation in microcredit an evaluation using a new panel dataset from bangladesh the objective of this paper is to estimate the impacts of medium and long term participation in microcredit programs it utilises a new and large panel dataset collected from treatment and control households from 1997 to 2005 the data enables us to identify continuing participants in the program as well as newcomers and leavers we employ different estimation strategies including triple difference and propensity score matching methods to control for selection bias the impact estimates indicate that the benefits from microcredit vary more than proportionately with the duration of participation in a program larger benefits are realized from longer term participation and that the benefits continue to accrue beyond departure from the program the findings indicate the need to observe longer periods of participation to provide a reliable basis for assessing the effectiveness of microcredit lending

forecasting crude oil market volatility further evidence using garch class models abstract this paper extends the work of kang et al 2009 we use a greater number of linear and nonlinear generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity garch class models to capture the volatility features of two crude oil markets brent and west texas intermediate wti the one five and twenty day out of sample volatility forecasts of the garch class models are evaluated using the superior predictive ability test and with more loss functions unlike kang et al 2009 we find that no model can outperform all of the other models for either the brent or the wti market across different loss functions however in general the nonlinear garch class models which are capable of capturing long memory and or asymmetric volatility exhibit greater forecasting accuracy than the linear ones especially in volatility forecasting over longer time horizons such as five or twenty days

health nutrition and economic development the relationship between health and economic development is explored focusing on nutrition based health indicators the spotlight is placed on the inter related feedbacks between the influence of health on productivity on one hand and the influence of income on health status on the other disentangling causality in these relationships has preoccupied much of the literature we evaluate different empirical strategies that have been adopted and assess the results there is now a body of evidence based on careful empirical studies that demonstrates a causal relationship between health and labor productivity there is also evidence that at least among the very poor additional income is spent on improved nutrition there are two issues that have received little attention although we argue they are likely to be very important first measurement of health is discussed in detail evidence is presented on how taking into account differences in the extent of measurement error is critical for interpreting the impact of health on wages the same theme emerges in studies of the effect of income on health specifically calorie intake the key role of non linearities in these relationships is highlighted and we demonstrate that a good deal of the variation in estimates of income elasticities of demand for calories can be ascribed to the role of measurement and functional form authors

a sequential game of endowment effect and natural property rights abstract this study develops a sequential game between the incumbent and the intruder to examine how endowment effect decides natural property rights of a territory without third party intervention

learning to like what you have explaining the endowment effect the endowment effect describes the fact that people demand much more to give up an object than they are willing to spend to acquire it the existence of this effect has been documented in numerous experiments we attempt to explain this effect by showing that evolution favors individuals whose preferences embody an endowment effect the reason is that an endowment effect improves one s bargaining position in bilateral trades we show that for a general class of evolutionary processes strictly positive endowment effects will survive in the long run

the conditional heteroscedasticity of the yen dollar exchange rate this paper examines the conditional heteroscedasticity of the yen dollar exchange rate a model is constructed by extending the asymmetric power autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model to a process that is fractionally integrated it is found that unlike the equity markets the appreciation and depreciation shocks of the yen against the dollar have similar effects on future volatilities although the results reject both the stable and the integrated models our analysis of the response coefficients of the past shocks and the application of the models to the estimation of the capital requirements for trading the currencies show that there are no substantial differences between the fractionally integrated models and the stable models 1998 john wiley sons ltd

does head start improve children s life chances evidence from a regression discontinuity design this paper exploits a new source of variation in head start funding to identify the program s effects on health and schooling in 1965 the office of economic opportunity oeo provided technical assistance to the 300 poorest counties to develop head start proposals the result was a large and lasting discontinuity in head start funding rates at the oeo cutoff for grant writing assistance we find evidence of a large drop at the oeo cutoff in mortality rates for children from causes that could be affected by head start as well as suggestive evidence for a positive effect on educational attainment i introduction head start was established in 1965 as part of the war on poverty to provide preschool health and other social services to poor children age three to five and their families and currently serves over 900 000 children each year at a cost of around 7 billion hhs 2006 this paper provides new evidence on the effects of the head start program on schooling and health by drawing on a new source of variation in program funding spe

a multi country study of power arch models and national stock market returns abstract ding et al 1993 ding z granger c w j engle r f 1993 a long memory property of stock market returns and a new model journal of empirical finance 1 83 106 suggested a model which extends the arch family of models for analyzing a wider class of power transformations than simply taking the absolute value or squaring the data as in the conventional conditional heteroscedastic models this paper analyzes the applicability of these power arch parch models to national stock market returns for 10 countries plus a world index we find the parch model to be generally applicable once garch and leverage effects are taken into consideration in addition we also find that the optimal power transformation is remarkably similar across countries

health shocks and consumption smoothing in rural households does microcredit have a role to play abstract this paper estimates using a large panel data set from rural bangladesh the effects of health shocks on household consumption and how access to microcredit affects households response to such shocks households appear to be fairly well insured against health shocks our results suggest that households sell livestock in response to health shocks and short term insurance is therefore attained at a significant long term cost however microcredit has a significant mitigating effect households that have access to microcredit do not need to sell livestock in order to insure consumption microcredit organizations and microcredit therefore have an insurance role to play an aspect that has not been analyzed previously

animal spirits through creative destruction we show how a schumpeterian process of creative destruction can induce rational herd behavior by entrepreneurs across diverse sectors as if fueled by animal spirits consequently a multisector economy in which productivity improvements are made by independent profit seeking entrepreneurs exhibits regular booms slowdowns and downturns as part of the long run growth process our cyclical equilibrium has higher average growth but lower welfare than the corresponding acyclical one we show how a negative relationship can emerge between volatility and growth across cycling economies and assess the extent to which our model matches several features of actual business cycles