discount rates equity weights and the social cost of carbon abstract equity weighting has been proposed as a way of allowing welfare equivalents to be included in the social cost of carbon since a dollar to a poor person is worth more than a dollar to a rich one here we use the page2002 integrated assessment model to show that the social cost of carbon is higher without equity weights an elasticity of marginal utility with respect to income of 0 than with them this might seem counter intuitive but it comes about because of the logical link between equity weights and discount rates as the elasticity goes from 0 to 0 5 to 1 0 the social rate of time preference rises and the drop in present values that results far outweighs the small increase in impacts that equity weights bring

marriage market divorce legislation and household labor supply this paper provides a theoretical framework for analyzing the impact of the marriage market and divorce legislation on household labor supply in our approach the sex ratio in the marriage market and the rules governing divorce are examples of distribution factors these factors are defined as variables that affect the household members bargaining position but not preferences or the joint budget set we extend the collective labor supply model developed by chiappori to allow for distribution factors we show that our model imposes new restrictions on the labor supply functions and eases the identification of individual preferences and the intrahousehold decision process the model is estimated using psid data for the year 1988 our results do not reject the restrictions imposed by the model also the sex ratio and divorce laws deemed favorable to women are found to affect labor supply behavior and the decision process in the directions predicted by the theory and to have sizable effects

the relationship between energy consumption structure economic structure and energy intensity in china this paper investigates the long run equilibrium relationships temporal dynamic relationships and causal relationships between energy consumption structure economic structure and energy intensity in china time series variables over the periods from 1980 to 2006 are employed in empirical tests cointegration tests suggest that these three variables tend to move together in the long run in addition granger causality tests indicate that there is a unidirectional causality running from energy intensity to economic structure but not vice versa impulse response analysis provides reasonable evidences that one shock of the three variables will cause the periods of destabilized that followed however the impact of the energy consumption structure shock on energy intensity and the impact of the economic structure shock on energy consumption structure seem to be rather marginal the findings have significant implications from the point of view of energy conservation and economic development in order to decrease energy intensity chinese government must continue to reduce the proportion of coal in energy consumption increase the utilization efficiency of coal and promote the upgrade of economic structure furthermore a full analysis of factors that may relate to energy intensity e g energy consumption structure economic structure should be conducted before making energy policies

welfare specifications and optimal control of climate change an application of fund the sensitivity of the optimal control of carbon dioxide emissions to the specification of the social welfare function is systematically explored using the fund model increasing risk aversion emphasises climate change damages relative to emission reduction costs but at the same time increases the discount rate of consumption without international co operation the discount rate effect dominates so that optimal control decreases with increasing risk aversion with international co operation optimal control first increases then decreases with increasing risk aversion since climate change falls heaviest on the poor optimal control increases with increasing inequity aversion full fledged intergenerational welfare functions on the one hand emphasise climate change damages but on the other hand place more weight on current poorer generations in fund the two tendencies almost cancel

renewable energy for sustainable electrical energy system in india abstract present trends of electrical energy supply and demand are not sustainable because of the huge gap between demand and supply in foreseeable future in india the path towards sustainability is exploitation of energy conservation and aggressive use of renewable energy systems potential of renewable energy technologies that can be effectively harnessed would depend on future technology developments and breakthrough in cost reduction this requires adequate policy guidelines and interventions in the indian power sector detailed markal simulations for power sector in india show that full exploitation of energy conservation potential and an aggressive implementation of renewable energy technologies lead to sustainable development coal and other fossil fuel gas and oil allocations stagnated after the year 2015 and remain constant up to 2040 after the year 2040 the requirement for coal and gas goes down and carbon emissions decrease steeply by the year 2045 25 electrical energy can be supplied by renewable energy and the co2 emissions can be reduced by 72 as compared to the base case scenario

substitution possibilities and determinants of energy intensity for china abstract this paper measures technological change factor demand and inter factor and inter fuel substitutability measures for china we use individual fuel price data and a two stage approach to estimate total factor cost functions and fuel share equations both inter factor and inter fuel substitution elasticities are calculated and the change in energy intensity is decomposed into its driving forces the results suggest that energy is substitutable for capital regionally and for labor nationally capital substitutes for energy more easily than labor does energy intensity changes vary by region but the major drivers seem to be budget effect and the adoption of energy intensive technologies which might be embodied in high level energy using exports and sectors capital investment and even old technique and equipment imports whether the trend in rising energy intensity continues will be significant for china and the rest of the world

efficient energy saving targets for apec economies abstract energy saving target ratios estr for 17 apec economies during 1991 2000 are computed in a total factor framework all nominal variables are transformed into real variables by the purchasing power parity ppp at the 1995 price level the data envelopment analysis dea approach is used to find the energy saving target est for apec economies without reducing their maximum potential gross domestic productions gdps in each year energy labor and capital are the three inputs while gdp is the single output our major findings are as follows 1 china has the largest est up to almost half of its current usage 2 hong kong the philippines and the united states have the highest energy efficiency 3 the energy efficiency generally increases for apec economies except for canada and new zealand 4 chile mexico and taiwan have significantly improved their energy efficiency in the last 5 years 5 an inverted u shape relation exists between per capita est and per capita gdp 6 estr has a positive relation with the value added percentage of gdp of the industry sector and a negative relation with that of the service sector

discounting and distributional considerations in the context of global warming the economics of global warming is reviewed with special emphasis on how the cost depends on the discount rate and on how costs in poor and rich regions are aggregated into a global cost estimate both of these factors depend on the assumptions made concerning the underlying utility and welfare functions it is common to aggregate welfare gains and losses across generations and countries as if the utility of money were constant but it is not if we assume that a e co2 equivalent dlubling implies costs equal to 1 5 of the income in both high and low income countries a pure rate of time preference equal to zero and a utility function which is logarithmic in income then the marginal cost of co2 emissions is estimated at 260 590 usd ton c for a time horizon in the range 300 1000 years an estimate which is large enough to justify significant reductions of co2 emissions on purely economic grounds the estimate is approximately 50 100 times larger than the estimate made by nordhaus in his dice model and the difference is almost completely due to the choice of discount rate and the weight given to the costs in the developing world as well as a more accurate model of the carbon cycle finally the sensitivity of the marginal cost estimate with respect to several parameters is analyzed

the social cost of carbon and its policy implications the shadow price or social cost of carbon is an important indicator of the global incremental damage done by emitting greenhouse gases today cost benefit analysis would set the optimal amount of greenhouse gas emission reduction at the point where this social cost just equals the incremental cost of controlling emissions the higher the value for the social cost of carbon the more control is warranted this comparison assumes that cost benefit analysis is the correct way of determining climate change policy and many believe this is not the case because of the very long term irreversible and potentially catastrophic nature of global warming but in the short run at least a comparison of cost and benefits is required and in any event all decisions imply costs and benefits but what is the right figure for the social cost of carbon this paper reviews the uk government s assessment of the cost and concludes that it has been set far too high because of a misreading of the integrated assessment models used to balance costs and benefits moreover adoption of the uk government s shadow price would have formidable implications for energy policy in the uk and for policies on afforestation copyright 2003 oxford university press

china s energy economy technical change factor demand and interfactor interfuel substitution with its rapid economic growth china s primary energy consumption has exceeded domestic energy production since 1994 leading to a substantial expansion in energy imports particularly of oil china s energy demand has an increasingly significant impact on global energy markets in this paper allen partial elasticities of factor and energy substitution and price elasticities of energy demand are calculated for china using a two stage translog cost function approach the results suggest that energy is substitutable with both capital and labor coal is significantly substitutable with electricity and complementary with diesel while gasoline and electricity are substitutable with diesel china s energy intensity is increasing during the study period 1995 2004 and the major driver appears to be due to the increased use of energyintensive technology

wives time allocation and intrahousehold power evidence from the philippines utilizing a rich survey data collected in the southern part of the philippines this paper examines the time allocation of wives within the collective household framework by investigating not only the role of socioeconomic factors but also the influence of various intrahousehold power indicators analysis of autonomy and finality of intrahousehold decisions discloses that decisions are not unilaterally decided by a single household member a result which confirms the prediction of collective household framework adopting a simple test procedure this paper also examines which of the competing household models collective or unitary best describes these philippine time use data testing results lend support to the validity of the collective household framework

monetary valuation of the social cost of co2 emissions a critical survey an expanding branch of research has estimated the potential costs of climate change which are often expressed as the social cost of carbon scc or the costs of an additional ton of co2 emissions estimates of the scc can be used by policy makers to evaluate climate change policies and greenhouse gas emission reduction projects by means of cost benefit analyses cbas such analyses are complicated by the wide range of scc values that have been reported in the literature and the large uncertainties involved in estimating the potential economic impacts and related costs of climate change this study presents a critical review of the reported scc estimates by examining some neglected consequences of climate change uncertain and extreme scenarios of climate change the discounting of future climate change effects the treatment of individual risk aversion and assumptions about social welfare in view of the many uncertainties and omissions in conventional cost benefit analyses of climate impacts and the scc alternative approaches to decision making should be considered for climate policy

can foreign direct investment harness energy consumption in china a time series investigation abstract this study assesses the long run relationship and short run dynamics between foreign direct investment fdi and energy consumption in china applying the bounds testing approach to annual data from 1982 to 2012 we find that a stable fdi energy nexus exists in the long run and a 1 increase in fdi reduces energy consumption by 0 21 however this study shows a positive association between fdi and energy consumption in the short run attributing to the dominance of the scale effect our results remain robust to different measurements and estimators it is suggested that the chinese government shall support the inward fdi in the tertiary and energy sectors and strengthen local absorptive capacities to fully internalize fdi related knowledge spillovers in energy conservation

the decline in the number of school districts in the u s 1950 1980 between 1950 and 1980 the number of school districts fell from 83 642 to 15 987 data for the fifty states for 1950 1960 1970 and 1980 are used to identify the factors that contributed to this decline the focus is on the tradeoff between cost savings through scale economies a few large districts and a diverse population s demand for choice in public schooling many small districts we find that much of the decline in the number of school districts has resulted from 1 the decline in the farm population and increase in population density which has made it easier to take advantage of scale economies 2 the growing importance of state aid which reduces quality variation among districts within a state and 3 the increase in the fraction of teachers that belong to the national education association teacher s union which may reflect increased political influence used to lower the costs of organizing

energy policies for managing china s carbon emission abstract the well documented close relationship between economic growth and energy use indicates that the emergence of a country as an economic power cannot occur without increased in energy use but just as the scale of china s rise as an economic power has no clear parallel in history its conflict between economic growth and energy use has also shattered all precedents this planet s future energy scenario hinges on the ability of this decoupling the question this policy forum addressed is how to find the optimum way to accomplish this decoupling through government directive government centered command and control approaches or cac or market forces market based instruments or mbi it concludes that market rather than government can decide the optimum way to decouple china s economic growth from energy use facilitating this decoupling driven by market force requires getting the prices right for energy

to reduce energy consumption and to maintain rapid economic growth analysis of the condition in china based on expended ipat model abstract as one of the important driving forces of world economic development china s rapid economic growth has not only supplied the world with a large number of manufactured goods but also caused china s sustained and rapid increase in energy consumption because of the characteristics of china s economic development and overall low productivity derive from them in many years according to the ipat model and its expansion this article figures out china s indicators of economic growth and changes in energy consumption brought by technological progress since 1986 empirical results show that despite many years efforts china s high speed economic growth is still largely dependent on massive energy consumption how to maintain rapid economic growth while reducing energy consumption china has faced the very problem it needs to address

business cycles indicators and forecasting acknowledgments introduction james h stock and mark w watson 1 twenty two years of the nber asa quarterly economic outlook surveys aspects and comparisons of forecasting performance victor zarnowitz and phillip braun comment allen sinai 2 a procedure for predicting recessions with leading indicators econometric issues and recent experience james h stock and mark w watson comment kenneth f wallis 3 estimating event probabilities from macroeconometric models using stochastic simulation ray c fair comment james d hamilton 4 a nine variable probabilistic macroeconomic forecasting model christopher a sims comment pierre perron 5 why does the paper bill spread predict real economic activity benjamin m friedman and kenneth n kuttner comment ben s bernanke 6 further evidence on business cycle duration dependence francis x diebold glenn d rudebusch and daniel e sichel comment bruce e hansen 7 dynamic index models for large cross sections danny quah and thomas j sargent comment john geweke 8 modelling non linearity over the business cycle clive w j granger timo terdsvirta and heather anderson comment andrew harvey contributors author index subject index

energy models for demand forecasting a review abstract energy is vital for sustainable development of any nation be it social economic or environment in the past decade energy consumption has increased exponentially globally energy management is crucial for the future economic prosperity and environmental security energy is linked to industrial production agricultural output health access to water population education quality of life etc energy demand management is required for proper allocation of the available resources during the last decade several new techniques are being used for energy demand management to accurately predict the future energy needs in this paper an attempt is made to review the various energy demand forecasting models traditional methods such as time series regression econometric arima as well as soft computing techniques such as fuzzy logic genetic algorithm and neural networks are being extensively used for demand side management support vector regression ant colony and particle swarm optimization are new techniques being adopted for energy demand forecasting bottom up models such as markal and leap are also being used at the national and regional level for energy demand management

modelling energy demand of developing countries are the specific features adequately captured abstract this paper critically reviews existing energy demand forecasting methodologies highlighting the methodological diversities and developments over the past four decades in order to investigate whether the existing energy demand models are appropriate for capturing the specific features of developing countries the study finds that two types of approaches econometric and end use accounting are commonly used in the existing energy demand models although energy demand models have greatly evolved since the early seventies key issues such as the poor rich and urban rural divides traditional energy resources and differentiation between commercial and non commercial energy commodities are often poorly reflected in these models while the end use energy accounting models with detailed sectoral representations produce more realistic projections as compared to the econometric models they still suffer from huge data deficiencies especially in developing countries development and maintenance of more detailed energy databases further development of models to better reflect developing country context and institutionalizing the modelling capacity in developing countries are the key requirements for energy demand modelling to deliver richer and more reliable input to policy formulation in developing countries

the economics of schooling production and efficiency in public schools n recent years public and professional interest in schools has been heightened by a spate of reports many of them critical of current school policy these policy documents have added to persistent and long standing concerns about the cost effectiveness and fairness of the current school structure and have made schooling once again a serious public issue as in the past however any renewed interest in education is likely to be short lived doomed to dissipate as frustration over the inability of policy to improve school practice sets in this frustration about school policy relates directly to knowledge about the educational production process and in turn to underlying research on schools although the educational process has been extensively researched clear policy prescriptions flowing from this research have been difficult to derive 2 there exists however a consistency to the research findings that does have an immediate application to school policy schools differ dramatically in quality

determinants of china s energy imports an empirical analysis sustained economic growth in china has triggered a surge of energy imports especially oil imports this paper investigates the determinants of china s energy import demand by using cointegraiton and vecm techniques the findings suggest that in the long run growth of industrial production and expansion of transport sectors affect china s oil imports while domestic energy output has a substitution effect thus as the chinese economy industrializes and the automotive sector expands china s oil imports are likely to increase though china s domestic oil production has a substitution effect on imports its growth is limited due to scarce domestic reserve and high exploration costs it is anticipated that china will be more dependent on overseas oil supply regardless of the world oil price

the effect of electricity consumption from renewable sources on countries economic growth levels evidence from advanced emerging and developing economies abstract this paper uses a sample of 36 countries for the time period 1990 2011 in order to examine the relationship between countries electricity consumption from renewable sources and gross domestic product gdp levels several nonparametric techniques are applied to investigate the effect of electricity consumption from several renewable sources including wind geothermal solar biomass and waste on countries gdp levels when investigating the whole sample ignoring countries economic development status the results reveal an increasing relationship up to a certain gdp level which after that point the effect of electricity consumption on gdp stabilises however when analyzing separately the emerging markets and developing economies and the advanced developed economies the results change significantly for the case of emerging market and developing economies the relationship appears to be highly nonlinear an m shape form indicating that on those countries the levels of electricity consumption from renewable sources will not result on higher gdp levels in contrast for the case of the advanced economies the results reveal an increasing nonlinear relationship indicating that higher electricity consumption levels from renewable sources results to higher gdp levels this finding is mainly attributed to the fact that in the advanced developed economies more terawatts from renewable sources are generated and consumed compared to the emerging market and developing economies which traditionally their economies rely on non renewable sources for power generation and consumption

drivers for energy consumption a comparative analysis of china and india abstract china and india accounted for two thirds of the world s rise in energy use between 2000 and 2012 this paper aimed to calculate the p population a affluence t technology effects of energy use in china and india the world s two most populous and largest developing countries to this end a combination of the ipat method and the logarithmic mean divisia index technique and annual time series data on population energy consumption and gross domestic product during 1970 2012 are used in china a 12 53 fold growth of energy use emissions from 1970 to 2012 is driven by a combination of rapid growth in individual income and slow growth in population with offset by technological advancement since 1980 the accelerating rise in energy use since 2000 is a result of accelerating growth rates in individual income and a reversal of earlier declining in energy intensity technological advancement unlike china the long term rise in energy use exceeded the long term rise in individual income in india in addition a strong trend of decline in energy intensity has not yet occurred in india thus a 7 39 folds growth of indian energy use for 1970 2012 was a result of relatively rapid increase in population and relatively slow increase in income without effective offset by technological advancement it suggests that market oriented economic and energy reforms need to send the correct price signal to promote energy efficient technologies thus improving energy efficiency which is the key to a sustainable energy future in china and india

the effect of school district structure on education spending this paper develops a theoretical and empirical model of local spending on education that analyzes the effect of institutional structure on education spending it attempts to determine whether the theory of bureaucratic behavior is consistent with school district spending decisions by testing the hypothesis that the number of school districts in a county has a negative effect on per pupil expenditures the results are not consistent with the theory but indicate that a fragmented school district structure serves to increase expenditures

gradual reforms and the emergence of energy market in china evidence from tests for convergence of energy prices this study investigates the emergence of energy markets by testing for convergence of energy prices with a new dataset on energy spot prices in 35 major cities in china both descriptive statistics and unit root are employed to test the convergence of energy prices for each of four fuel price series the whole study period is divided into two sub periods in order to reconcile the gradual energy reforms the results show the steady improvement in energy market performance in china especially during the second sub period which suggests that the market appears to be playing an increasing role in determining energy prices while panel unit root tests show energy markets are integrated in china as a whole city by city univariate unit root tests suggest that there are still many regional energy markets probably because energy reserves especially coal vary widely across regions since china s energy economy is gradually moving towards market oriented mechanisms the existing literature may become obsolete soon

public education supply and student performance this paper develops a model of public exchange whereby voters and education policy makers exchange with one another within school districts because school district consolidation lowers alternatives to voters parents consolidation is hypothesized to raise public education spending because weakened intergovernmental competition allows policy makers to promote their own utility rather than that of constituents models of public education spending and academic performance are estimated over 1988 1990 while evidence indicates little support for the traditional treatment of the leviathan hypothesis that greater competition lowers public spending this paper argues that education spending by itself does not fully provide a valid test of the leviathan hypothesis since spending by itself does not necessarily indicate the quality of public education programmes empirical evidence indicates that greater numbers of schools and school districts promote higher student achievement as evidenced by higher math and v

coal consumption co2 emission and economic growth in china empirical evidence and policy responses this article investigates the relationship between coal consumption and income in china using both supply side and demand side frameworks cointegration and vector error correction modeling show that there is a unidirectional causality running from coal consumption to output in both the short and long run under the supply side analysis while there is also a unidirectional causality running from income to coal consumption in the short and long run under the demand side analysis the results also reveal that there is bi directional causality between coal consumption and pollutant emission both in the short and long run hence it is very difficult for china to pursue a greenhouse gas abatement policy through reducing coal consumption switching to greener energy sources might be a possible alternative in the long run

economic diversity development capacity and sustainable development of china abstract china s economic growth over the past several decades has been among the highest in the world it has been fueled by cheap fossil fuel energy so energy consumption has risen rapidly but there are signs that negative feedbacks in the form of waste and inefficiency may affect future development if energy throughput exceeds the capacity of the environment to process the inevitable waste from production then the development may not be sustainable we calculate economic diversity using an energy flow network analysis method to explore the relationships of development policy energy use efficiency and sustainable development china and its provinces are presented as a case study and the development status of each province in china is presented china s development policy does not appear to be sustainable over the period 1985 1998 because of unsustainable energy consumption trends and declining economic diversity an energy consumption tax is proposed for increasing diversity and dealing with increasing energy consumption in china

how do environmental regulation and environmental decentralization affect green total factor energy efficiency evidence from china abstract green development is critical for china s economic transformation enhancing green total factor energy efficiency hereafter gtfee is vital to emission reduction and to win win industrial development this study uses the panel data of 30 chinese provinces for the period 2005 2016 to investigate the relationship between environmental regulation and china s gtfee the spatial durbin model is employed to control for the possible spatial spillover effect a dynamic threshold panel model that can effectively address the endogeneity problem and regional heterogeneity is utilized to examine the potential non linear relationship between environmental regulation and gtfee under different conditions of environmental decentralization the estimation results indicate that there is a significant u shaped relationship between environmental regulation and china s gtfee with the further expansion of environmental decentralization the local government s autonomous choice of pollution control is improved the improvement of environmental decentralization can lead to negative moderating effect of environmental regulation on gtfee additionally the regression results of dynamic threshold model show that environmental decentralization can increase the negative influences of environmental regulation on gtfee interestingly the non linear impact of environmental regulation on gtfee is dependent on the specific type of environmental decentralization higher degree of environmental decentralization can lead to an increase in the restraining effect of environmental regulation on gtfee however an improvement in the decentralization of environmental supervision and environmental monitoring can increase the negative influences of environmental regulation on gtfee

the failure of china s energy development strategy 2050 and its impact on carbon emissions china is the world s largest energy consumer and emitter of carbon china s energy development strategy is thus of great significance to the world s energy security and global carbon reduction target in this study the implementation of china s energy development strategy 2050 eds2050 which has been in operation since 1985 is investigated this study analyzes the causes of the failure of eds2050 and the impacts of that failure on carbon emissions the results show the following 1 eds2050 basically failed in 2010 and the strategic planning values of primary energy consumption and production were underestimated compared with the actual values by 39 and 67 respectively 2 comparing the predicted values of basic parameters in eds2050 with the actual values in the production field the main causes of failure were the underestimation of the economic growth rate and the proportion of non agricultural industries while in the living field the main causes were the underestimation of urbanization and per capita energy consumption in rural areas further analyses of various provinces demonstrated that the major factors leading to eds2050 failure include the economic growth rate urbanization population growth and the growth in car ownership 3 eds2050 failure resulted in an increase in carbon emissions in 2010 of 583 50 x 10 6 tc and increases of per capita carbon emissions reached 46 49 47 04 carbon emissions per unit of output demonstrated a reduction which was as a result of technological progress improving energy efficiency optimizing energy utilization and promoting national energy conservation should be highly emphasized in china s future sustainable energy development strategy c 2015 elsevier ltd all rights reserved

the power to tax analytical foundations of a fiscal constitution preface 1 taxation in constitutional perspective 2 natural government a model of leviathan 3 constraints on base and rate structure 4 the taxation of commodities 5 taxation through time income taxes capital taxes and public debt 6 money creation and taxation 7 the disposition of public revenues 8 the domain of politics 9 open economy federalism and taxing authority 10 toward authentic tax reform prospects and prescriptions epilogue notes selected bibliography index

what goes up recent trends in china s energy consumption since 1996 china s energy output has dropped by 17 while primary energy use has fallen by 4 driven almost entirely by shrinking output from coal mines and declining direct use since china is the world s second largest emitter of greenhouse gases it is important to understand the sources of this apparent transformation and whether it portends a permanent change in patterns of energy use this remarkable reversal of the long term expansion of energy use has occurred even as the economy has continued to grow albeit more slowly than in the early 1990s generation of electric power has risen implying a steep fall in end uses particularly in industry available information points to a variety of forces contributing to this phenomenon including rapid improvements in coal quality structural changes in industry shutdowns of factories in both the state owned and non state segments of the economy improvements in end use efficiency and greater use of gas and electricity in households a combination of slowing economic growth industrial restructuring broader economic system reforms and environmental and energy efficiency policies has apparently led to at least a temporary decline in and perhaps a long term reduction in the growth of energy use and therefore greenhouse gas emissions

an econometrics view of worldwide fossil fuel consumption and the role of us crude oil coal and gas known as fossil fuels play a crucial role in the global economy this paper proposes new econometrics modelling to demonstrate the trend of fossil fuels consumption the main variables affecting consumption trends are world reserves the price of fossil fuels us production and us net imports all variables have been analysed individually for more than half a century the research found that while the consumption of fossil fuels worldwide has increased trends in the us production and net imports have been dependent on the type of fossil fuels most of the us coal and gas production has been for domestic use which is why it does not have a strong influence on worldwide fossil fuel prices moreover the reserves of fossil fuels have not shown any diminution during the last couple of decades and predictions that they were about to run out are not substantiated the nominal and real price of fossil fuels was found to change depending on the type finally estimates of three econometric models for the consumption of fossil fuels from 1949 to 2006 are presented which identify the effects of significant variables

development of biodiesel industry in china upon the terms of production and consumption abstract the prices of primary energy have been ineluctably raised up due to the enormous energy consumption in china and the economy suffers a lot from the severe energy shortage therefore the necessity of using renewable energy in china is particularly important biodiesel has become one of the major renewable fuels of biomass energy since china s biodiesel industry just starts at the primary stage improving the production capacity of biodiesel for meeting the soaring on energy demands is more necessary for the sustainable development in china the materials for biodiesel production are various and sufficient in china that indicates china could have a brilliant potentiality in the production capacity of biodiesel however whether such prediction could be true is still needed to be discussion in depth and further for well answering the query the development of biodiesel industry in china has been systematically reviewed upon the terms of production and consumption and three essential aspects how to sufficiently take advantage of such plentiful feedstock for obtaining a satisfied production capacity how to reasonably use such biodiesel in each region and how to scientifically encourage the development of chinese biodiesel industry have been discussed from the review and discussions it can be concluded that the rising china s biodiesel industry is still behind the actual demand asked by 12th five years plan and continuous introduction of capitals is the effective method to a further development meanwhile the development of china s biodiesel industry is highly depended on the raw materials whose sources and production capability are remarkably different in different regions and hence make standards on the quality of biodiesel is essential and crucial to the further development furthermore adjusting tax policies and forcing the application of biodiesel as addition to fossil diesel can effective establish and enlarge the market of biodiesel in china

a comprehensive review of data envelopment analysis dea approach in energy efficiency the main aim of this review article is to review of dea models in regarding to energy efficiency this paper reviewed and summarized the different models of dea that have been applied around the world to development of energy efficiency problems consequently a review of 144 published scholarly papers appearing in 45 high ranking journals between 2006 and 2015 have been obtained to achieve a comprehensive review of dea application in energy efficiency accordingly the selected articles have been categorized based on year of publication author s nationalities scope of study time duration application area study purpose results and outcomes results of this review paper indicated that dea showed great promise to be a good evaluative tool for future analysis on energy efficiency issues where the production function between the inputs and outputs was virtually absent or extremely difficult to acquire

economic growth regional disparities and energy demand in china abstract using the panel data of 27 provinces between 1978 and 2008 we employed a instrumental regression technique to examine the relationship between economic growth energy demand production and the related policies in china the empirical results show that forming a cross province integrated energy market will in general reduce the response of equilibrium user costs of energy products to their local demand and production through cross regional energy transfer including both energy trade and cross regional reallocation in particular reducing transportation costs and improving marketization level are identified as two important policy instruments to enhance the role of energy market integration the findings support the argument for a more competitive cross province energy transfer policies and calls for more developed energy connectivity and associate institutional arrangements within china these policy implications may also be extended to the east asia summit region where energy market integration is being actively promoted

energy consumption and gdp revisited a panel analysis of developed and developing countries this paper applies a new panel data stationarity testing procedure first developed by carrion i silvestre et al 2005 econometrics journal 8 159 175 with panel vars that employ the generalized method of moment techniques in order to re investigate the dynamic interactions between energy consumption per capita lec and real gdp per capita lry in 22 developed and 18 developing countries when multiple breaks in the series are taken into account there is convincing evidence of panel stationarity for lec and lry in both groups the energy crises evidently had a substantive impact on both lec and lry in all sample countries furthermore our panel vars attest to bidirectional causality between lec and lry in developed countries but there is uni directional causality from lry to lec in developing countries finally from the orthogonalized impulse response functions all of the variables in the panel vars have a positive effect on each other but their impact is greater and more persistent in developing countries some important policy implications do emerge

the effect of increasing exports on industrial energy intensity in china abstract given china s heavy reliance on fuel energy and the dominance of its industrial sector in the economy improving energy efficiency remains one of the practical means for the country to decrease energy intensity and to fulfill its commitment made at the copenhagen climate change conference to achieve a 40 45 percent reduction in co 2 emission intensity by 2020 this study investigates the impact of exports on industrial energy intensity to explore the possibility of reducing energy intensity through greater exports a panel varying coefficient regression model with a dataset of china s 20 industrial sub sectors over 1999 2007 suggests that in general greater exports aggravate energy intensity of the industrial sector and that great divergences exist in the impact of exports on energy intensity across sub sectors a panel threshold model further estimates the thresholds for the major determinants of energy intensity exports input in technological innovations and foreign direct investment fdi intensity given the great differences in specific sub sector characteristics and the changing roles played by different factors across sub sectors there is no general export policy that would work for all sub sectors in reducing sub sector energy intensity instead policies and measures aiming to encourage more efficient use of energy should take into full consideration the characteristics and situations of individual sub sectors

energy consumption in china past trends and future directions abstract in 2003 china s energy consumption amounted to 1678 million tonnes coal equivalent mtce making china the world s second largest consumer behind only the united states china is now also one of the largest oil importers in the world with an economy that is expected to maintain a rate of growth of 7 8 for decades china s role in the world energy market becomes increasingly influential this makes it important to predict china s future demand for energy the objective of this paper is to apply the bayesian vector autoregressive methodology to forecast china s energy consumption and to discuss potential implications the results of this paper suggest that total energy consumption should increase to 2173 mtce in 2010 an annual growth rate of 3 8 which is slightly slower than the average rate in the past decade the slower growth reflects expected slower economic growth and a decline in energy consumption due to structural changes in the chinese economy

environmental effects of shipping imports from china and their economic valuation the case of metallic valve components this paper aims to consider the total cost including polluting environmental emissions of imports from china to europe of five valve components in aluminium steel and iron these are compared with locally produced alternatives to investigate whether internalising such external costs affects their price competitiveness seaborne trade represents 90 of international trade and is growing faster than the world s economy but marine pollution emissions are not reflected in market prices chinese aluminium iron and steel production are about 2 5 times more polluting than their european counterparts but this is also not reflected in prices in this paper both types of extra emissions are calculated valued and added to the cost of the components analysed for comparison with locally produced alternatives the locally produced components generally remain uncompetitive with chinese imports for all likely values of external cost except for heavy aluminium components under high external cost assumptions the chinese iron components analysed are simply too low in cost for european in this case spanish equivalents to be competitive even allowing for environmental costs while the stainless steel ones are so small and light that transport cost even including externalities is not significant while these specific results are of limited generalizability they provide insight into an issue of considerable and growing importance some suggestions are offered for further research

decoupling co2 emission and economic growth in china is there consistency in estimation results in analyzing environmental kuznets curve china is one of the highest growth economies in the world and it has experienced a significant rise in energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions in recent decades its economic growth heavily depends on fossil fuels of coal and oil which led to huge amount of greenhouse gas emissions this study logically analyzes the nexus of co2 emissions economic growth and energy consumption by decoupling greenhouse gas emission of co2 and economic growth to provide more conclusive evidence on the phenomenon of the environmental kuznets curve ekc over the period 1970 2015 to achieve the objective of consistency in the estimation results the study applies different estimation techniques such as ardl auto regressive distributed lag model fmols fully modified ordinary least squares dols dynamic ordinary least squares and impulse response and variance decomposition in addition the business as usual inverted u shaped relationship between gdp per capita and an economy related co2 emission is hypothesized the result supports the environmental kuznets curve ekc hypothesis from different techniques the turning point hovers around 744665 the estimation result indicates that china ekc turning point shows some inconsistencies when compared to other turning points obtained from different studies the inconsistency of the ekc turning point is attributed to the sensitivity of the result to different data source variables selection different pollutants and scope of the data although the ekc turning point of this present research differs from other china ekc turning points it gives a clear policy roadmap on the pursuance of long run economic growth in favour of environmental quality besides significance of the turning point lies with the need to explore other structural policies such as articulated demographic and energy policies rather than passively waiting for the arrival of the inflexion point one interesting findings of the analysis is the consistency of the estimation results from the different estimation techniques

the impacts of energy prices on energy intensity evidence from china in this paper we present a review of the deregulation of energy prices in china between 1985 and 2004 and assess the impacts of changes in energy prices on aggregate energy intensity and coal oil electricity intensity we used time series data to provide estimates of energy price elasticities empirical results showed that 1 the own price elasticities of coal oil and aggregate energy were negative in periods both before and after 1995 implying that higher relative prices of different energy types lead to the decrease in coal oil and aggregate energy intensities however the positive own price elasticity of electricity after 1995 probably indicates that the price effect was weaker than other factors such as income effect and population effect 2 the impacts of energy prices were asymmetric over time 3 sectoral adjustment also drove the decrease in aggregate energy intensity although raising energy prices to boost efficiency of energy use seems to be an effective policy tool other policy implications concerned with energy prices such as energy supply security and fuel poverty must also be considered

economic growth urbanization and energy consumption a provincial level analysis of china abstract as the largest developing country with fast paced economic growth china s development has been characterized by a high degree of energy consumption high level of heavy industry international trade and urbanization progress in this study we extend the current literature by incorporating urbanization energy consumption and international trade into a production function using a panel data set model over the period from 2001 to 2012 the results show that urbanization and capital are the major contributors to china s economic growth meanwhile there exists a u shaped relationship between urbanization and economic growth that heavy industry exerts a significant negative effect on economic growth using system generalized methods of moments gmm sys estimation methods and the relationship between international trade and economic growth is mixed and no consistent results support the conclusion that the international trade promotes economic growth adjusting the industry and trade structure in economic growth is the priority for the policy makers

international oil price uncertainty and corporate investment evidence from china s emerging and transition economy we develop and estimate a dynamic model of investment to investigate the impact of international oil price uncertainty on corporate investment expenditures in china s emerging and transition economy we further examine whether state ownership affects the relationship between oil price uncertainty and corporate investment consistent with the model s prediction the main finding is that oil price uncertainty exerts a negative impact on corporate investment expenditures in addition compared with state owned listed companies the negative influence of oil price uncertainty on corporate investment is more significant for non state owned listed companies our further analysis using the market oriented reform of refined oil pricing in 2008 as a quasi natural event shows the variation between the low degree marketization period and the high degree one in terms of the relationship between international oil price uncertainty state ownership and corporate investment expenditures

sustainability economics where do we stand abstract environmental economics which is a branch of resource economics the environment as a scarce resource is essentially about market failures the costs of pollution and pollution abatement and the economics of regulation sustainability economics includes the problem of maintaining economic growth while reducing pollution and or its impacts with special attention to the linked problems of energy supply not to mention the supply other exhaustible resources climate change and most urgently fossil fuel consumption there is a need for integration of resource and environmental economics under a new rubric sustainability economics

household labour supply in britain and denmark some interpretations using a model of pareto optimal behaviour this paper analyses the labour supply behaviour of households in denmark and britain it employs models in which the preferences of individuals within the household are explicitly represented the households are then assumed to decide on their labour supply in a pareto optimal fashion describing the structure of the household decision in this way allows preliminary results to be obtained on the internal weighting of utilities within the household

bayesian methods for dynamic multivariate models if dynamic multivariate models are to be used to guide decisionmaking it is important that probability assessments of forecasts or policy projections be provided when identified bayesian vector autoregression var models are presented with error bands in the existing literature both conceptual and numerical problems have not been dealt with in an internally consistent way in this paper the authors develop methods to introduce prior information in both reduced form and structural var models without introducing substantial new computational burdens their approach makes it feasible to use a single large dynamic framework for example twenty variable models for tasks of policy projections copyright 1998 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

evaluating the effects of embodied energy in international trade on ecological footprint in china based on sub sectoral level of economy and detailed traded items embodied energy ee in international trade flow in china is estimated during 1996 2004 and the effects of ee on sustainability are quantified by using one of the most popular indicators ecological footprint ef a framework of ef method which is more relevant to realism of specific country is proposed in this paper the results show that china is a net importer of ee during the period covered by this study except for the year from 1997 to 1999 imported exported and net imported ee tends to increase sharply along time series net imported energy would increase 38 and energy consumption would increase 2 8 in 2004 if ee were taken into account footprint energy is the most important part of ef components and is significantly affected by ee and the effects of ee on ef are similar to that of footprint energy footprint energy ef and ecological deficit of 2004 will be underestimated about 2 92 1 36 2 83 respectively if ee is not taken into the national energy budget continuous increase of ef and ecological deficit along time series indicates that china is moving away from sustainability 1 47 times chinese territories are accurately occupied by china in 1996 while 1 71 times in 2004 obviously unsustainability procedure of china is accelerated by ee the contribution of ee to ef and ecological deficit is small in absolute terms expressed in per capita but the effects on whole nation are huge if the population of china multiplies them to curb the increase of ef and ecological deficit and to achieve the goal of sustainability some policy and measures are also proposed c 2006 elsevier b v all rights reserved

shocks effects of macroeconomic variables on natural gas consumption in nigeria structural var with sign restrictions abstract this paper has examined the transmission of shocks from macroeconomic variables namely money supply inflation exchange rate and real gdp onto natural gas consumption using structural var svar model with sign restrictions the results revealed that both in the short run and long run natural gas consumption responds significantly to the shocks emanating from money supply and real gdp while its response to inflation shock is significant only in the short run but exchange rate shock is not significant however money supply has contributed greater proportion of the shocks followed by the real gdp inflation and exchange rate in the ordering of the variance decomposition the paper recommends that nigerian authorities adjust the monetary policy tools towards regulating the money supply and checking the inflation rate to ensure increased demand for natural gas and sustained economic growth on the response of natural gas consumption to the shock in the exchange rate since the shock is positive though insignificant it implies that depreciation of the exchange rate can discourage the demand for foreign exchange imports and boost the local production which would reciprocally lead to more natural gas consumption and improved growth in the country

productivity of men and women and the sexual division of labor in peasant agriculture of the peruvian sierra abstract this paper estimates the productivity of men and women in the peasant agriculture of the peruvian sierra using recent household survey data a sexual division of labor on the farm implies that male and female labor are not perfectly substitutable evidence is found for female specialization on livestock production a translog production function reveals that the use of animal traction and land affect the marginal productivity of male and female labor differently suggesting that the two types of labor cannot be aggregated overall adult male labor is found to contribute more to farm output at the margin than adult female labor though the extent of the difference is sensitive to how farm output and the labor inputs are measured

structural breaks energy consumption and economic growth revisited evidence from taiwan abstract this paper studies the stability between energy consumption and gdp for taiwan during 1954 2003 we use aggregate as well as various disaggregate data of energy consumption including coal oil gas and electricity to employ the unit root tests and the cointegration tests allowing for structural breaks our main findings are first though gas consumption seems to have structural breaks in the 1960s after considering the structural breaks the series is a stationary variable when taiwan adopted its expansionary export trade policy second we find that different directions of causality exist between gdp and various kinds of energy consumption the empirical result shows unanimously in the long run that energy acts as an engine of economic growth and that energy conservation may harm economic growth third the cointegration between energy consumption and gdp is unstable and some economic events may affect the stability overall we do find the structural breakpoints and they look to match clearly with the corresponding critical economic incidents

long term electricity demand in china from quantitative to qualitative growth abstract this paper develops scenarios of electricity demand in china until 2010 at a national a sectoral and a regional level it takes into account the recent macroeconomic downturn in the chinese economy and the potential effects of deregulation and price increases in the power sector the medium growth scenario hints at a gross electricity demand of 1500 twh in 2010 should the structural change from agriculture and heavy industry towards light industry and services accelerate electricity demand may be another 10 lower these figures are significantly below the projections fixed in the government s 9th five year plan which forecasts a demand of 2500 twh the aggregate and sectoral scenarios imply that current development plans for generating capacity and coal consumption until 2010 too need to be scaled down the disaggregation at the level of the 13 inter provincial and provincial power grids hints at potential regional discrepancies the large industrial areas in eastern china and the central region are likely to face overcapacity whereas north china and the peripheral regions may face deficits

the value and allocation of time in rural botswana abstract time use data indicate that there is substantial surplus labor in rural areas of botswana with the incidence of underutilization varying by age sex and asset position time allocations are influenced by economic incentives i e income and productivity effects the more productive capital the household has the more productive work its members perform particularly its children the positive productivity effect of capital on economic work somewhat outweighs its negative income effect time allocations also are constrained by a culturally determined division of labor by age and sex which however shows some flexibility at the margin

short and long run effects between oil consumption and economic growth in china this paper examines both the equilibrium relationship and the predictability between oil consumption and economic growth in china time series variables are employed in empirical tests cointegration tests suggest that these two variables tend to move together in the long run in addition granger causality tests indicate that oil consumption could be a useful factor that forecasts changes in the economy in the short run as well as in the long run the oil consumption is found to have great effects on the economy this is because the enormous use of oil in sectors like the industry may have directly pushed the economy however this finding would probably stimulate faster growth in oil consumption and so should be concerned with care conversely economic growth could be used as a predictive factor forecasting oil consumption only in the long run economic growth appears to have small effects on oil use this could be attributed largely to china s energy consumption structure coal constitutes most of the energy consumption and thus the considerable demand for energy resulting from rapid economic growth could be mostly explained by the mass use of coal

the effect of global oil price shocks on china s metal markets this paper investigated the impacts of global oil price shocks on the whole metal market and two typical metal markets copper and aluminum we applied the autoregressive conditional jump intensity arji model combining with the generalized conditional heteroscedasticity grach method to describe the volatility process and jump behavior in the global oil market we separated the oil price shocks into positive and negative parts to analyze whether oil price volatility had symmetric impacts on china s metal markets we further used the likelihood ratio test to examine the symmetric effect of oil price shocks in addition we considered the jump behavior in oil prices as an input factor to investigate how china s metal markets are affected when jumps occur in the global oil market in contrast to the existing research paying little attention to this issue our results indicate that crude oil price shocks have significant impacts on china s metal markets and the impacts are symmetric when compared with aluminum copper is more easily affected by oil price shocks

crude oil price uncertainty and corporate investment new global evidence abstract using a comprehensive dataset of more than 33 000 firms from 54 countries in the period 1984 2015 we show that crude oil price uncertainty negatively influences corporate investment more importantly the effect is dependent on the market and stock characteristics of the firms in addition we discover that the effect is stronger in the crude oil producers group than for crude consumers our analysis reveals that the global financial crisis and market volatility phases significantly affect this relationship our results survive a range of robustness tests

climate change policy why has so little been achieved while the scientific evidence for climate change grows the policy responses have so far had little or no impact on the build up of emissions current trends in emissions are adverse the paper considers why the disconnect between science and policy exists and in particular why the kyoto protocol has achieved so little some contributing factors considered are the focus on carbon production rather than consumption in the architecture of kyoto the flaws in the analysis presented in the stern report notably on the impacts of climate change on economic growth on the costs of mitigation and on discounting and the political economy of the choice of policy instruments the politics of the rents that arise and the technology bias the challenges facing the copenhagen conference are noted and it is concluded that with a recasting of the economics of climate change the prospects for closing the gap between the science and policy are grim

industry energy use and structural change a case study of the people s republic of china abstract this paper examines the effects of structural change and improvements in energy intensities of individual industries in aggregate industry energy intensity changes in china during 1980 88 the divisia index is used to decompose the energy intensity effect and structural effect a major finding of this analysis is that the main contribution to changed aggregate energy intensity was from the changes in energy intensities of individual industries during the period structural effects were found to contribute little to the aggregate energy intensity changes

the influence of living with parents on women s decision making participation in the household evidence from the southern philippines abstract this article analyses the dynamics of women s participation in the decisions made in the household by looking at the effects of events that transpired in the recent period results suggest that the wife s participation status is positively affected by the presence of parents either hers or the spouse s in the household results also show that the wife s parents significantly affect participation in minor issues while the spouse s parents significantly affect the more relevant financial issues the article also offers a cursory discussion on the role of household headship

non public competition and public school performance evidence from west virginia abstractin this study we investigate whether non public school enrolment affects the performance of public school districts if homeschooling and private schools act as competition public school districts test scores should be positively associated with non public enrolment using data on west virginia county school districts and controlling for endogeneity with an instrumental variables approach we find that a one standard deviation increase in relative non public enrolment in a county is associated with statistically significant improvements in public school district test scores our findings thus confirm that non public enrolment and the competition it provides act to improve rather than impede public school performance

energy consumption and economic growth evidence from china at both aggregated and disaggregated levels using a neo classical aggregate production model where capital labor and energy are treated as separate inputs this paper tests for the existence and direction of causality between output growth and energy use in china at both aggregated total energy and disaggregated levels as coal oil and electricity consumption using the johansen cointegration technique the empirical findings indicate that there exists long run cointegration among output labor capital and energy use in china at both aggregated and all three disaggregated levels then using a vec specification the short run dynamics of the interested variables are tested indicating that there exists granger causality running from electricity and oil consumption to gdp but does not exist granger causality running from coal and total energy consumption to gdp on the other hand short run granger causality exists from gdp to total energy coal and oil consumption but does not exist from gdp to electricity consumption we thus propose policy suggestions to solve the energy and sustainable development dilemma in china as enhancing energy supply security and guaranteeing energy supply especially in the short run to provide adequate electric power supply and set up national strategic oil reserve enhancing energy efficiency to save energy diversifying energy sources energetically exploiting renewable energy and drawing out corresponding policies and measures and finally in the long run transforming development pattern and cut reliance on resource and energy dependent industries

energy consumption and projected growth in selected caribbean countries this paper examines two issues that are central to the understanding of the need to increase efficiency in the use distribution and production of energy in the caribbean region the empirical results of this paper suggest the following first the three caribbean countries provide evidence of short run bi directional granger causality from energy consumption to real gross domestic product per capita second the forecasts with a bvar model indicate that significant growth in energy demand could be expected in haiti jamaica and trinidad and tobago until at least 2010 third the increased growth in energy consumption suggests the need for long term commitments from caribbean countries to undertake a series of policy economic market and research and development measures to advance the adoption and deployment of new energy technologies

estimation of a labour supply model with censoring due to unemployment and underemployment this study proposes and implements a method of labour supply estimation which is appropriate when the sample contains unemployed and underemployed workers the estimation method consists of excluding unemployed and underemployed workers from the sample and then using to avoid selection bias an extension of heckman s approach to the case where two correlated selection rules generate the sample hausman s specification test is then used to determine whether ignoring constrained workers has led to biases in traditional labour supply estimates and the empirical results suggest that previous estimates of several important parameters are biased since the biases go in the direction that would be predicted by the hypothesis that the unemployed and underemployed are constrained the results support this hypothesis

do we really understand the development of china s new energy industry abstract countries all over the world have realized that the key to resolving the dilemma between accelerated energy consumption and reduction in carbon dioxide emission is to actively develop new energy industry many scholars have conducted in depth investigation into the main driving forces of the new energy industry however they often adhere to an assumption that the effect of the driving forces on new energy industry is constant across areas ignoring the spatial heterogeneity in economic phenomena geographically weighted regression gwr model and the use of local sample data to implement parameter estimation can make up for the inadequacies of existing research therefore this paper uses the gwr model to carefully investigate the new energy industry the results show that the impact of economic growth on the new energy industry in the eastern region is higher than in the central and western regions owing to the differences in economic structure and fixed asset investment the impact of foreign energy dependence continuously declines from the eastern region to the central and western regions this is attributable to the differences in natural gas and oil imports technological progress has a similar effect on account of the differences in r d funding and r d personnel investments however the impact of the agriculture industry in the central region is higher than in the eastern and western regions due to the differences in crop acreage and agricultural output this study improves our understanding of the new energy industry and would help local authorities to formulate targeted policies for promoting the growth of new energy industry