trends in time allocation a cross country analysis abstract using detailed time use data for seven industrialized countries from the 1970s until today we document general decreases in men s market work coupled with increases in men s unpaid work and child care and increases in women s paid work and child care coupled with decreases in unpaid work we also find almost universal increases in the time devoted to watching television over this period and uncover a widespread increase in leisure inequality in favor of lower educated adults trends in leisure inequality mirror the general increase in income and earnings inequality experienced in most countries over this period especially after the mid 1980s all these findings are consistent with previous results for the us however in contrast to the increases in leisure found for the us we fail to find common trends in leisure time across countries over the period analyzed

time use data in economics abstract this project on time use data in economics is one of the first in a series of new initiatives taken by the board of editors of the european economic review to publish research in newly developing areas in economics the symposium shows the diversity of potential applications of time budget data a major new resource for household economics labor economics welfare economics and other areas jacobsen and kooreman examine how a change in shop opening hours legislation altered consumers time allocations hamermesh shows that consumers with higher full incomes enjoy more temporal variety klevmarken demonstrates that conventional estimates of labor supply elasticities change substantially when time budget data are used fahr shows the immensity of informal education activities and their positive correlation with formal education

the financial crisis and the geography of wealth transfers abstract this paper studies the geography of wealth transfers between 2007q4 and 2008q4 at the height of the global financial crisis we construct valuation changes on bilateral external positions in equity direct investment and portfolio debt to measure who benefited and who lost on their external exposure we find a very diverse set of fortunes governed by the structure of countries external portfolios in particular we are able to relate the gains and losses on debt portfolios to the country s exposure to abs abcp conduits and the extent of dollar shortage

intra household allocation of time and money across siblings abstract how work and consumption are allocated within the family has important consequences for the welfare of individual household members using data on time use and assignable goods for individual siblings across india peru ethiopia and vietnam aged 5 17 i show that there is substantial within sibling variation in leisure as well as consumption allocations i then test whether there is evidence for favoritism in the joint allocation of leisure and consumption toward a particular gender i find that boys with a younger sister have substantially more relative leisure compared to girls with a younger sister in all four countries consumption allocations are relatively higher for older siblings of mixed gender sibling pairs irrespective of the sex of the child i reject that favoritism in consumption equals favoritism in leisure in three of the four countries finally i show suggestive evidence on the role of reward and preferences for allocations of time and money in the household

global imbalances and financial fragility the united states is currently engulfed in the most severe financial crisis since the great depression the crisis was triggered by the crash in the real estate bubble and amplified by the extreme concentration of risk in a highly leveraged financial sector conventional wisdom is that both the bubble and the risk concentration were the result of mistakes in regulatory policy an expansionary monetary policy during the boom period of the bubble and failure to reign in the practices of unscrupulous lenders in this paper we argue that while correct in some dimensions this story misses two key structural factors behind the securitization process that supported the real estate boom and the corresponding lever age first over the last decade the us has experienced large and sustained capital inflows from foreigners seeking us assets to store value caballero emmanuel farhi and pierre olivier gourinchas 2008 second especially after the nasdaq tech bubble and bust excess world savings have looked predominantly for safe debt investments this should not be surprising because a large amount of the capital flow into the us has been from foreign central banks and governments that are not expert investors and are merely looking for a store of value krishnamurthy and annette vissing jorgenson 2008 in this paper we develop a stylized model that captures the essence of this environment the model accounts for three facts observed during the boom and bust phases of the current crisis first during a period of good shocks which we interpret as the period up to the end

should new antimalarial drugs be subsidized malaria kills over a million people each year the loss of chloroquine due to the spread of parasite resistance is largely responsible for the resurgence of malaria a new class of antimalarial drugs called artemisinins are available but are unaffordable to most people in malaria endemic countries and may quickly face the same fate as chloroquine unless they are combined with a partner drug subsidies for artemisinin combination treatments may be warranted on second best grounds as they deter use of single ingredient drugs for which externalities from the risk of resistance evolution are larger furthermore by expanding total effective drug use subsidies reduce infection transmission externalities among individuals however use of combination treatments could still lead to drug resistance and the subsidies themselves entail welfare consequences this paper develops a conceptual and numerical framework for understanding the conditions under which subsidies for artemisinin combinations can be justified on economic efficiency grounds

rare disasters and exchange rates we propose a new model of exchange rates which yields a theory of the forward premium puzzle our explanation combines two ingredients the possibility of rare economic disasters and an asset view of the exchange rate our model is frictionless has complete markets and works for an arbitrary number of countries in the model rare worldwide disasters can occur and affect each country s productivity each country s exposure to disaster risk varies over time according to a mean reverting process ri sky countries command high risk premia they feature a depreciated exchange rate and a high interest rate as their risk premium mean reverts their exchange rate appreciates therefore currencies of high interest rate countries appreciate on average to make the notion of disaster risk more implementable we show how options prices might in principle uncover latent disaster risk and help forecast exchange rate movements we then extend the framework to incorporate two factors a disaster risk factor and a business cycle factor we calibrate the model and obtain quantitatively realistic values for the volatility of the exchange rate the forward premium puzzle regression coefficients and near random walk exchange rate dynamics finally we solve a model of stock markets across countries which yields a series of predictions about the joint behavior of exchange rates bonds options and stocks across countries the evidence from the options market appears to be supportive of the model jel e43 e44 f31 g12 g15

interest rates and currency prices in a two country world abstract this paper is a theoretical study of the determination of prices interest rates and currency exchange rates set in an infinitely lived two country world which is subject both to stochastic endowment shocks and to monetary instability formulas are obtained for pricing all equity claims nominally denominated bonds and currencies and these formulas are related to earlier closely related results in the theories of money finance international trade

optimal price subsidy policy for accelerating the diffusion of innovation due to the risk inherent in dependence on foreign oil there is a social benefit in aiding the introduction of alternative energy sources into the market place the federal government has initiated a number of programs including price subsidies to help accelerate the market diffusion of new alternative energy systems we develop a model to investigate analytically the effects of a price subsidy over time on the rate of market diffusion the model considers word of mouth effects and learning curve cost declines under a set of conditions that a new technology should be expected to meet before commercialization the optimal subsidy level is shown to be nonincreasing in time the related market price is shown to be closely related to the diffusion effect if there is no such effect the price to the customer is constant if there is positive diffusion effect price increases in time while if market saturation causes demand to decline over time price decreases in time

sleep and the allocation of time using aggregated data for 12 countries a cross section of microeconomic data and a panel of households we demonstrate that increases in time in the labor market reduce sleep our theory of the demand for sleep differs from standard models of time use by assuming that sleep affects wages by affecting labor market productivity estimates of a system of demand equations demonstrate that higher wage rates reduce sleep time among men but increase their waking nonmarket time by an equal amount among women the wage effect on sleep is negative but very small

the missing wealth of nations are europe and the u s net debtors or net creditors this paper shows that official statistics substantially underestimate the net foreign asset positions of rich countries because they fail to capture most of the assets held by households in offshore tax havens drawing on systematic anomalies in portfolio investment positions and a unique swiss dataset i find that 8 of the global financial wealth of households is held in tax havens 6 of which goes unrecorded on the basis of plausible assumptions accounting for unrecorded assets turns the eurozone officially the world s second largest net debtor into a net creditor it also reduces the u s net debt significantly the results shed new light on global imbalances and challenge the widespread view that after a decade of poor to rich capital flows external assets are now in poor countries and debts in rich countries i provide concrete proposals to improve international investment statistics

leverage cycles and the anxious economy ing opportunities for emerging economies their access to international markets has turned out to be very volatile with frequent periods of market closures even worse as we will show emerging economies with sound fundamentals are the ones that issue less debt during these closures the goal of this paper is to present a theory of asset pricing that will shed light on the problems of emerging assets like emerging markets that are not yet mature enough to be attractive to the general public their marginal buyers are liquidity constrained investors with small wealth relative to the whole economy who are also marginal buyers of other risky assets we will use our theory to argue that the periodic problems faced by emerging asset classes are sometimes symptoms of what we call a global anxious economy rather than of their own fundamental weaknesses

do trade costs in goods market lead to home bias in equities abstract two of the main puzzles in international economics are the consumption and the portfolio home biases we solve for international equity portfolios in a two country two good stochastic equilibrium model with trade costs in goods markets we show that introducing trade costs as suggested by obstfeld and rogoff obstfeld m rogoff k 2000a the six major puzzles in international macroeconomics is there a common cause nber macroeconomics annual 15 is not sufficient to explain these two puzzles simultaneously on the contrary we find that trade costs create a foreign bias in portfolios for reasonable parameter values this result is robust to the addition of non tradable goods for standard calibrations of the preferences

an intertemporal general equilibrium model of asset prices this paper develops a continuous time general equilibrium model of a simple but complete economy and uses it to examine the behavior of asset prices in this model asset prices and their stochastic properties are determined endogenously one principal result is a partial differential equation which asset prices must satisfy the solution of this equation gives the equilibrium price of any asset in terms of the underlying real variables in the economy in this paper we develop a general equilibrium asset pricing model for use in applied research an important feature of the model is its integration of real and financial markets among other things the model endogenously determines the stochastic process followed by the equilibrium price of any financial asset and shows how this process depends on the underlying real variables the model is fully consistent with rational expectations and maximizing behavior on the part of all agents our framework is general enough to include many of the fundamental forces affecting asset markets yet it is tractable enough to be specialized easily to produce specific testable results furthermore the model can be extended in a number of straightforward ways consequently it is well suited to a wide variety of applications for example in a companion paper cox ingersoll and ross 7 we use the model to develop a theory of the term structure of interest rates many studies have been concerned with various aspects of asset pricing under uncertainty the most relevant to our work are the important papers on intertemporal asset pricing by merton 19 and lucas 16 working in a continuous time framework merton derives a relationship among the equilibrium expected rates of return on assets he shows that when investment opportunities are changing randomly over time this relationship will include effects which have no analogue in a static one period model lucas considers an economy with homogeneous individuals and a single consumption good which is produced by a number of processes the random output of these processes is exogenously determined and perishable assets are defined as claims to all or a part of the output of a process and the equilibrium determines the asset prices our theory draws on some elements of both of these papers like merton we formulate our model in continuous time and make full use of the analytical tractability that this affords the economic structure of our model is somewhat similar to that of lucas however we include both endogenous production and

a macroeconomic model with a financial sector this paper studies a macroeconomic model in which financial experts borrow from less productive agents we pursue four sets of results i the economy is prone to instability and occasionally enters volatile episodes as volatility spikes agents precautionary motive increases depressing prices even further log linear approximations fail to capture these non linear effects that can cause economies to be significantly depressed for long periods of time ii endogenous risk during volatile episodes increases asset price correlations iii financial experts impose a negative externality on each other and on the labor sector by not maintaining adequate capital cushion and funding structure iv while risk sharing within the financial sector through securitization and derivatives contracts reduces many inefficiencies it can also amlify systemic risks

philanthropic motives and contribution policy this paper discusses different forms of transfer from a group of rich individuals to a group of poor individuals this transfer is based on the philanthropic motive of the donor who is not indifferent to the use of his contribution in particular the poor individual s vector of consumption is entered as a part in the donor s utility function

toward a theory of international currency we use the framework of random matching games and develop a two country model of the world economy in which two national currencies compete and may be circulated as media of exchange there are multiple equilibria which differ in the areas of circulation of the two currencies in one equilibrium the two national currencies are circulated only locally in another one currency is circulated as an international currency there is also an equilibrium in which both currencies are accepted internationally we also find an equilibrium in which the two currencies are directly exchanged we first characterize the existence conditions of these equilibria in terms of the relative country size and the degree of economic integration and then use an evolutionary approach to equilibrium selection to explain the evolution of the international currency as the two economies become more integrated some welfare implications are also discussed for example a country can improve its national welfare by letting its own currency circulate internationally provided the domestic circulation is controlled for when the total supply is fixed however a resulting currency shortage may reduce the national welfare

consumption externality and yield uncertainty in the influenza vaccine supply chain interventions in demand and supply sides we study the impact of yield uncertainty supply side and self interested consumers demand side on the inefficiency in the influenza vaccine supply chain previous economic studies focusing on demand side find that the equilibrium demand is always less than the socially optimal demand because self interested individuals do not internalize the social benefit of protecting others via reduced infectiousness positive externality in contrast we show that the equilibrium demand can be greater than the socially optimal demand after accounting for the limited supply due to yield uncertainty and manufacturer s incentives the main driver for this result is a second negative externality self interested individuals ignore that vaccinating people with high infection costs is more beneficial for the society when supply is limited we show that the extent of the negative externality can be reduced through more efficient and less uncertain allocation mechanisms to investigate the relative effectiveness of government interventions on supply and demand sides under various demand and supply characteristics we construct two partially centralized scenarios where the social planner i e government intervenes either on the demand side or the supply side but not both we conduct an extensive numerical analysis this paper was accepted by yossi aviv operations management

the impact of demand uncertainty on consumer subsidies for green technology adoption this paper studies government subsidies for green technology adoption while considering the manufacturing industry s response government subsidies offered directly to consumers impact the supplier s production and pricing decisions our analysis expands the current understanding of the price setting newsvendor model incorporating the external influence from the government who is now an additional player in the system we quantify how demand uncertainty impacts the various players government industry and consumers when designing policies we further show that for convex demand functions an increase in demand uncertainty leads to higher production quantities and lower prices resulting in lower profits for the supplier with this in mind one could expect consumer surplus to increase with uncertainty in fact we show that this is not always the case and that the uncertainty impact on consumer surplus depends on the trade off between lower prices and the possibility of underserving customers with h

a model of the international monetary system we propose a simple model of the international monetary system we study the world supply and demand for reserve assets denominated in different currencies under a variety of scenarios a hegemon vs a multipolar world abundant vs scarce reserve assets a gold exchange standard vs a floating rate system we rationalize the triffin dilemma which posits the fundamental instability of the system as well as the common prediction regarding the natural and beneficial emergence of a multipolar world the nurkse warning that a multipolar world is more unstable than a hegemon world and the keynesian argument that a scarcity of reserve assets under a gold standard or at the zero lower bound is recessionary our analysis is both positive and normative

financial intermediation international risk sharing and reserve currencies abstract i model the equilibrium risk sharing between countries with varying financial development the most financially developed country takes greater risks because its financial intermediaries deal with funding problems better in good times the more financially developed country consumes more and runs a trade deficit financed by the higher financial income that it earns as compensation for taking greater risk during global crises it suffers heavier losses its currency emerges as the reserve currency because it appreciates during crises thus providing a good hedge i provide evidence that financial net worth plays a crucial role in understanding this asymmetric risk sharing jel e44 f14 f32 g01 g15 g21

combined pricing and inventory control under uncertainty this paper addresses the simultaneous determination of pricing and inventory replenishment strategies in the face of demand uncertainty more specifically we analyze the following single item periodic review model demands in consecutive periods are independent but their distributions depend on the item s price in accordance with general stochastic demand functions the price charged in any given period can be specified dynamically as a function of the state of the system a replenishment order may be placed at the beginning of some or all of the periods stockouts are fully backlogged we address both finite and infinite horizon models with the objective of maximizing total expected discounted profit or its time average value assuming that prices can either be adjusted arbitrarily upward or downward or that they can only be decreased we characterize the structure of an optimal combined pricing and inventory strategy for all of the above types of models we also develop an efficient value iteration method to compute these optimal strategies finally we report on an extensive numerical study that characterizes various qualitative properties of the optimal strategies and corresponding optimal profit values

the risk premium and long run global imbalances this study proposes that heterogeneous household portfolio choices within a country and across countries offer an explanation for global imbalances we construct a stochastic growth multi country model in which heterogeneous agents face the following restrictions on asset trade first the degree of us equity market participation is higher than that of the rest of the world second a fraction of households in each country maintains a fixed share of equity in its portfolios in our calibrated model which matches the us net foreign asset position and the equity premium the average us household loads up more aggregate risk than the average foreign household by investing in risky assets abroad and issuing risk free assets as a result the us is compensated by a high risk premium and runs trade deficits even as a debtor country the long run average trade deficit in our model accounts for 50 of the observed us trade deficit

safe u s assets and u s capital flows abstract the exorbitant privilege of the u s the ability of the u s to earn positive net income on its international portfolio even though it is a net debtor may be linked to the convenience yield on u s government bonds the convenience yield refers to the low pecuniary return on u s treasuries associated with the non pecuniary yield on those assets arising from their liquidity and safety a simple model shows how the convenience yield can lead to current account deficits an appreciated currency in real terms and positive net factor income empirically we find evidence associating the convenience yield with a strong dollar in real terms and in turn evidence linking the real exchange rate to the u s current account we calculate that this channel may account for approximately 40 of the u s current account deficit we then discuss factors that might influence the convenience yield and discuss possible drawbacks to the exorbitant privilege

technical note optimal dynamic joint inventory pricing control for multiplicative demand with fixed order costs and lost sales this note studies the optimal dynamic decision making problem for a retailer in a price sensitive multiplicative demand framework our model incorporates lost sales holding cost fixed and variable procurement costs as well as salvage value we characterize the structure of the retailer s discounted expected profit maximizing dynamic inventory policy for both finite and infinite selling horizon problems

margin based asset pricing and deviations from the law of one price in a model with heterogeneous risk aversion agents facing margin constraints we show how securities required returns increase in both their betas and their margin requirements negative shocks to fundamentals make margin constraints bind lowering risk free rates and raising sharpe ratios of risky securities especially for high margin securities such a funding liquidity crisis gives rise to bases that is price gaps between securities with identical cash flows but different margins in the time series bases depend on the shadow cost of capital which can be captured through the interest rate spread between collateralized and uncollateralized loans and in the cross section they depend on relative margins we test the model empirically using the credit default swap bond bases and other deviations from the law of one price and use it to evaluate central banks lending facilities jel g01 g12 g13 e44 e50 the paramount role of funding constraints becomes particularly salient during liquidity crises with the one that started in 2007 being an excellent case in point banks unable to fund their operations closed down and the funding problems spread to other investors such as hedge funds that relied on bank funding therefore traditional liquidity providers became forced sellers interest rate spreads increased dramatically treasury rates dropped sharply and central banks stretched their balance sheets to facilitate funding these funding problems had significant asset pricing effects the most extreme example being the failure of the law of one price loop securities with nearly

on the effectiveness of uniform subsidies in increasing market consumption we study the problem faced by a central planner trying to increase the consumption of a good such as new malaria drugs in africa the central planner allocates subsidies to its producers subject to a budget constraint and endogenous market response the policy most commonly implemented in practical applications of this problem is uniform in the sense that it allocates the same per unit subsidy to every firm primarily because of its simplicity and perceived fairness surprisingly we identify sufficient conditions of the firms marginal costs such that uniform subsidies are optimal even if the firms efficiency levels are arbitrarily different moreover this insight is usually preserved even if the central planner is uncertain about the specific market conditions further in many cases uniform subsidies simultaneously attain the best social welfare solution additionally simulation results in relevant settings where uniform subsidies are not optimal suggest that they induce a nearly optimal market

subsidizing the distribution channel donor funding to improve the availability of malaria drugs in countries that bear the heaviest burden of malaria most patients seek medicine for the disease in the private sector because the availability and affordability of recommended malaria drugs provided by the private sector distribution channel is poor donors e g the global fund are devoting substantial resources to fund subsidies that encourage the channel to improve access to these drugs a key question for a donor is whether it should subsidize the purchases and or the sales of the private sector distribution channel we show that the donor should only subsidize purchases and should not subsidize sales we characterize the robustness of this result to four key assumptions the product s shelf life is long the retailer has flexibility in setting the price the retailer is the only level in the distribution channel and retailers are homogeneous this paper was accepted by martin lariviere operations management

creating win win trade promotions theory and empirical analysis of scan back trade deals manufacturer trade promotion spending is second only to cost of goods sold as a profit and loss item yet manufacturers often lose money on these deals as a result of forward buying by retailers the search for more effective forms of trade promotion and the availability of scanners at cash registers has led to the emergence of a new type of trade deal the scan back that gives retailers a discount on unitssoldduring the promotion rather than on unitsbought we develop a theory to compare retailer pricing decisions and profitability under scan back and traditional off invoice trade deals we show that when the terms of the trade deal are identical retailers prefer off invoice trade deals and manufacturers prefer scan backs manufacturers can however redesign the scan back to leave the retailer weakly better off and leave themselves strictly better off using proprietary data from the beverage category we conduct an empirical analysis and find that during the promotion period scan back trade deals relative to off invoice deals 1 do not cause excess ordering and 2 generate higher retail sales through lower retail prices implications for researchers and managers are discussed