managing without growth abstract there are three main arguments why developed countries should consider managing without growth 1 continued economic growth worldwide is not an option owing to environmental and resource constraints and so developed countries should leave room for growth in developing countries where the benefits of growth are evident 2 in developed countries growth has become uneconomic in the sense that it detracts more from well being than it adds and 3 economic growth in developed countries is neither necessary nor sufficient for meeting specific policy objectives such as full employment no poverty and protection of the environment this paper explores various growth scenarios for canada over the medium range to 2020 using lowgrow a dynamic simulation model after describing lowgrow a scenario is presented that shows conditions under which the rate of unemployment in canada could be reduced to historically low levels poverty eliminated and greenhouse gas emissions reduced to comply with canada s commitment under the kyoto protocol without relying on economic growth this is not to say that zero growth should itself become a policy objective rather that the dependence on and defence of economic growth should not be an obstacle to fulfilling more specific welfare enhancing objectives of full employment eliminating poverty and protecting the environment the paper concludes with some policy implications for managing without growth followed by an annex which provides a technical description of lowgrow

the nature of diversified business groups a research design and two case studies diversified business groups dominate the private sectors of most of the world s economies several of these economies have undergone sudden policy changes that significantly increase domestic competitive intensity the authors demonstrate how the changes in corporate scope that accompany such competitive shocks can be used to weigh the importance of different explanations for the existence of diversified business groups the authors illustrate their reasoning by studying the restructuring of two of india s largest business groups following a comprehensive post 1991 package of policy reforms the case studies also elucidate aspects of the restructuring process that should inform larger sample empirical analyses copyright 1998 by blackwell publishing ltd

nonrenewable resource scarcity nonrenewable resource theory often is summarized by hotelling s rule this paper reviews theoretical extensions and empirical investigations of resource extraction models observed data are often inconsistent with the hotelling rule suggesting that other characteristics of nonrenewable resource supply including exploration heterogeneous ore quality technological progress and capital investment are important determinants of the dynamic behavior of resource prices given the persistent recurrence of concern about nonrenewable resource scarcity measures of nonrenewable resource scarcity and the empirical evidence for the time trends of those measures are reviewed finally the implications of nonrenewable resource scarcity for economic growth are examined

labor supply in the presence of taxes an alternative specification this paper estimates a model of married women s labor supply in the presence of progressive taxes the specification is based on a translog indirect utility function with normally distributed random preference parameters the application of roy s identity then leads to a distribution of labor supply that involves ratios of normals

uncertainty in the availability of natural resources fossil fuels critical metals and biomass energy policies are strongly influenced by resource availability and recoverability estimates yet these estimates are often highly uncertain frequently incommensurable and regularly contested this paper explores how the uncertainties surrounding estimates of the availability of fossil fuels biomass and critical metals are conceptualised and communicated the contention is that a better understanding of the uncertainties surrounding resource estimates for both conventional and renewable energy resources can contribute to more effective policy decision making in the long term two complementary approaches for framing uncertainty are considered in detail a descriptive typology of uncertainties and a framework that conceptualises uncertainty as alternative states of incomplete knowledge both have the potential to be useful analytical and communication tools for the three resource types considered here we find that data limitations inconsistent definitions and the use of incommensurable methodologies present a pervasive problem that impedes comparison many aspects of resource uncertainty are also not commonly captured in the conventional resource classification schemes this highlights the need for considerable care when developing and comparing aggregate resource estimates and when using these to inform strategic energy policy decisions

firms markets and the state institutional change and manufacturing sector profitability variances in india we assess absolute magnitudes relative importance and intertemporal differences in firm industry and business group effects in explaining the variance of indian manufacturing firms profitability over the 26 year period between 1980 1981 and 2005 2006 we stratify the data by institutional phases to place emphasis on the role of changing institutional factors in an emerging economy first as a regime of command and control transits to partial liberalization between 1985 and 1991 and then to an open competitive market economy after 1991 thereafter financial reforms occur followed by legal reforms we find that liberalization significantly affects and alters the relative importance of firm industry and group effects firm effects are always important whether in a command and control regime with benefits accruing from protectionism and political rent seeking or in liberalized periods where firm specific capabilities and dynamic efficiencies are valued industry effects are significant in the command and control regime when mandatory sector placement benefits firms in industries with superior profits and in the liberalized period when the choice of the industry segment in which to operate is open to firms thereafter industry effects dissipate business group effects matter in explaining profitability variances group effects magnitudes however do not change significantly over time

home country supportiveness unfavorableness and outward foreign direct investment from china what drives the outward foreign direct investments ofdis by emerging market firms emfs drawing on a strategy tripod framework this article proposes a theoretical model to predict ofdi by emfs from china specifically we use institution and industry based views to examine two facets of home country environment namely the supportiveness from home government and unfavorableness from home industry as important determinants of ofdi and compare the relative strength of these effects further we use the resource based view to argue that the effect of the home country environment is contingent on the international experience portfolios of emfs

how reasonable are oil production scenarios from public agencies according to the long term scenarios of the international energy agency iea and the u s energy information administration eia conventional oil production is expected to grow until at least 20

international search behavior of business group affiliated firms scope of institutional changes and intragroup heterogeneity this paper investigates whether and when affiliation to business groups enables or constrains firms international search behavior during institutional transitions we theorize that given the unique structure and complex form of business group organizations the search behavior of affiliated firms is influenced by the degree of misalignment in outlook at the group and affiliate levels of management we identify the scope of institutional changes business group attributes and affiliate characteristics as sources of such misalignment the results from panel data on 298 firms from the indian pharmaceutical industry for the 1992 2007 period show that the constraining effects of business group affiliation are observed only when institutional changes are specific to the affiliates industry and not when broad institutional changes affect the business group as a whole moreover we observe heterogeneity in the search behavior of group affiliated firms first the degree of misalignment is greater in the case of affiliates belonging to older business groups and those that are more distant in terms of age and industry since the group s founding second by contrast and suggesting an alignment in outlook we find that affiliated firms that occupy a prominent position within a group or industry are able to bargain for and receive attention and support from the business group to undertake international search our findings have implications for research on the role of business groups in a changing institutional context and for the strategic adaptation of firms embedded in complex organizational and institutional settings

oil scarcity what have the past three decades revealed oil shortages have been predicted over the past 30 years in fact oil is more plentiful now in an economic sense than in 1973 the reason for such misconceptions lies mainly in reliance on analytical techniques that do not comprehend oil as an economic commodity

explaining the price of oil 1971 2014 the need to use reliable data on oil discovery and to account for mid point peak abstract this paper explains in broad terms the price of oil from 1971 to 2014 and focuses on the large price increases after 1973 and 2004 the explanation for these increases includes the quantity of conventional oil i e oil in fields discovered combined with the decline in production of this oil that occurs typically once mid point is passed many past explanations of oil price have overlooked these two constraints and hence provided insufficient explanations of oil price reliable data on conventional oil discovery cannot come from public domain proved 1p oil reserves as such data are very misleading instead oil industry backdated proved plus probable 2p data must be used it is recognised that accessing 2p data can be expensive or difficult the mid point peak of conventional oil production results from a region s field size distribution its fall off in oil discovery and the physics of field decline in terms of the future price of oil estimates of the global recoverable resource of conventional oil show that the oil price will remain high on average unless dramatic changes occur in the volume of production and cost of non conventional oils or if the overall demand for oil were to decline the paper concludes with policy recommendations

learning across geographic space pro market reforms multinationalization strategy and profitability building on economic geography and knowledge based theory i argue that pro market reforms augment the profitability of firms by increasing their competitiveness and market knowledge however i propose that this effect is greater for firms that operate internationally firms that operate in more advanced markets and firms that become multinationals before reforms are implemented this is because such firms acquire market knowledge abroad that they can use when responding to reforms at home giving them a head start advantage over other local firms the analyses of a panel of the largest 500 latin american companies from 1989 to 2008 provide support for these arguments

the eclectic paradigm of international production a restatement and some possible extensions this article reviews some of the criticisms directed towards the eclectic paradigm of international production over the past decade and restates its main tenets the second part of the article considers a number of possible extensions of the paradigm and concludes by asserting that it remains a robust general framework for explaining and analysing not only the economic rationale of economic production but many organisational and impact issues in relation to mne activity as well

autonomy delegation to foreign subsidiaries an enabling mechanism for emerging market multinationals current theory on foreign subsidiary autonomy is insufficient to examine a situation where a multinational lacks experience to organize global operations and yet intends to compete extensively with established multinational enterprises mnes from advanced economies by building on theoretical perspectives developed for emerging market multinational enterprises emnes we advance the idea that foreign subsidiary autonomy is a strategic mechanism to overcome the emne s weaknesses in managing globally dispersed businesses and their home country disadvantages after foreign entry subsidiary autonomy delegation assists in performing the learning functions necessary for overcoming resource and capability voids as well as for distancing the subsidiary administratively from the parent s negative home country institutional heritage analyses of survey data collected from headquarter senior executives of 240 chinese mnes suggest that subsidiary autonomy delegation is higher among firms relying on foreign markets as a springboard to acquire strategic assets whose top managers at the headquarters perceive high domestic institutional constraints and which do not count on government assistance to expand internationally further we demonstrate that these relationships are strengthened with greater inward foreign direct investment cooperative experience and with the use of merger and acquisition entry modes these findings have important implications for theories on subsidiary autonomy

international expansion of emerging market enterprises a springboard perspective in this article we present a springboard perspective to describe the internationalization of emerging market multinational corporations em mnes em mnes use international expansion as a springboard to acquire strategic resources and reduce their institutional and market constraints at home in so doing they overcome their latecomer disadvantage in the global stage via a series of aggressive risk taking measures by aggressively acquiring or buying critical assets from mature mnes to compensate for their competitive weaknesses we discuss unique traits that characterize the international expansion of em mnes and the unique motivations that steer them toward internationalization we further delineate peculiar strategies and activities undertaken by these firms in pursuit of international expansion as well as internal and external forces that might compel or facilitate their propulsion into the global scene we finally explain the risks and remedies associated with this international springboarding strategy and highlight major issues meriting further investigation

rapid fdi expansion and firm performance today more firms are expanding rapidly into foreign markets to reach global scale quickly and to capture or nullify first mover advantages these trends run counter to the conventional theory of gradual internationalization which suggests that firms maximize the benefits of learning from prior experience thereby minimizing the hazard of failure we argue that this conventional wisdom does not consider the risk of being a perennial late mover in the face of increased global competition this study explores the circumstances under which rapid fdi expansion a strategy of undertaking fdi expansion at an accelerated speed can be a viable strategy using data on korean firm expansion we find that rapid fdi expansion enhances firm performance in industries where globalization pressures are high and when it is done by firms with superior internal resources and capabilities

assessing the date of the global oil peak the need to use 2p reserves combining geological knowledge with proved plus probable 2p oil discovery data indicates that over 60 countries are now past their resource limited peak of conventional oil production the data show that the global peak of conventional oil production is close many analysts who rely only on proved 1p oil reserves data draw a very different conclusion but proved oil reserves contain no information about the true size of discoveries being variously under reported over reported and not reported reliance on 1p data has led to a number of misconceptions including the notion that past oil forecasts were incorrect that oil reserves grow very significantly due to technology gain and that the global supply of oil is ensured provided sufficient investment is forthcoming to turn resources into reserves these misconceptions have been widely held including within academia governments some oil companies and organisations such as the iea in addition to conventional oil the world contains large quantities of non conventional oil most current detailed models show that past the conventional oil peak the non conventional oils are unlikely to come on stream fast enough to offset conventional s decline to determine the extent of future oil supply constraints calculations are required to determine fundamental rate limits for the production of non conventional oils as well as oil from gas coal and biomass and of oil substitution such assessments will need to examine technological readiness and lead times as well as rate constraints on investment pollution and net energy return

views on peak oil and its relation to climate change policy abstract definitions of fossil fuel reserves and resources and assessed stock data are reviewed and clarified semantics explain a large stake of conflict between advocate and critical voices on peak oil from a holistic sources sinks perspective limited carrying capacity of atmospheric sinks not absolute scarcity in oil resources will impose tight constraints on oil use eventually observed peaks in oil production in nearby years will result from politically imposed limits on carbon emissions and not be caused by physical lack of oil resources peak oil belief induces passive climate policy attitudes when suggesting carbon dioxide emissions will peak naturally linked to dwindling oil supplies active policies for reducing emissions and use of fossil fuels will also encompass higher energy end use prices revenues obtained from higher levies on oil use can support financing energy efficiency and renewable energy options but when oil producers charge the higher prices they can pump new oil for many decades postponing peak oil to occur while extending carbon lock in

the end of cheap oil bottom up economic and geologic modeling of aggregate oil production curves there is a lively debate between concerned and unconcerned analysts regarding the future availability and affordability of oil we critically examine two interrelated and seemingly plausible ar

do international acquisitions by emerging economy firms create shareholder value the case of indian firms while overseas acquisitions by emerging economy firms are gaining increased attention from the business press our understanding of whether and why this inorganic mode of international expansion creates value to acquirer firms is limited we argue that international acquisitions facilitate internalization of tangible and intangible resources that are both difficult to trade through market transactions and take time to develop internally thus constituting an important strategic lever of value creation for emerging economy firms furthermore the magnitude of value created will be higher when the target firms are located in advanced economic and institutional environments country markets that carry the promise of higher quality of resources and therefore stronger complementarity to the existing capabilities of emerging economy firms an event study of 425 cross border acquisitions by indian firms during 2000 2007 supports our predictions

estimating the performance effects of business groups in emerging markets business groups confederations of legally independent firms are ubiquitous in emerging economies yet very little is known about their effects on the performance of affiliated firms we conceive of business groups as responses to market failures and high transaction costs in doing so we develop hypotheses about the effects of group affiliation on firm profitability affiliation could either boost or depress firm profitability and members of a group are likely to earn rates of return similar to other members of the same group using a unique data set compiled largely from local sources we test for these effects in 14 emerging markets argentina brazil chile india indonesia israel mexico peru the philippines south africa south korea taiwan thailand and turkey we find evidence that business groups indeed affect the broad patterns of economic performance in 12 of the markets we examine group affiliation appears to have as profound an effect on profitability as does industry membership yet strategy scholars have a much clearer grasp of industries than of groups moreover membership in a group raises the profitability of the average group member in several of the markets we examine this runs contrary to the wisdom conventional in advanced economies that unrelated diversification depresses profitability overall our findings suggest that the roots of sustained differences in profitability may vary across institutional contexts conclusions drawn in one context may well not apply to another copyright 2001 john wiley sons ltd

transforming disadvantages into advantages developing country mnes in the least developed countries we analyze the advantages and disadvantages of developing country multinational enterprises mnes in comparison with developed country mnes developing country mnes tend to be less competitive than their developed country counterparts partly because they suffer the disadvantage of operating in home countries with underdeveloped institutions we argue that this disadvantage can become an advantage when both types of mne operate in countries with difficult governance conditions because developing country mnes are used to operating in such conditions the empirical analysis shows that although developing country mnes rarely appear among the largest mnes in the world they are more prevalent among the largest foreign firms in the least developed countries ldcs especially in ldcs with poorer regulatory quality and lower control of corruption

the 1000 gtc coal question are cases of vastly expanded future coal combustion still plausible abstract decades ago prospects seemed strong for significantly expanded global coal consumption studies of energy futures depicted the full geologic extent of coal as a virtually unlimited backstop energy supply drawing justification from legacy ratios of reserves to production r p on the order of several centuries annual consumption and market prices for hard coal have doubled since 1990 providing an opportunity to recalibrate the next century s reference case with an empirically constrained outlook for this important industrial fuel source over the last two decades improving knowledge of world coal deposits refined estimates of their recoverable portion reducing assessed reserves by two thirds coal supply costs during this period increased much faster than anticipated by models which mapped total geologic occurrences with long and flat supply curves consequently underlying assumptions no longer hold for many multi decade global energy reference cases depicting a rapid expansion of coal production the conceptual framework for these scenarios needs revision energy system outlooks underlying pathways of future greenhouse gas ghg emissions provide a case study since the climate change research community commonly uses business as usual scenarios with a strong carbon signal from coal combustion many times higher than current reserve estimates in this paper we explain why vast expansion in 21st century coal consumption should not be used to describe any plausible reference case of the global energy future illustrating coal as a practically unlimited backstop supply is inconsistent with the current state of coal markets technology and reserve estimates future coal production faces many uncertainties but the key uncertainty for long term scenarios is the recoverable portion of reserves not how many total geologic resources will eventually become reserves

does market oriented institutional change in an emerging economy make business group affiliated multinationals perform better an institution based view viewing market oriented institutional change as a two staged process we propose that the effects of market oriented institutional change on two organizational forms business group affiliated and independent firms are different depending on the stage of institutional change specifically we examine how the two distinct periods of market oriented institutional change that is institutional friction and institutional convergence affect business group affiliated firms and independent firms in their abilities to profit from international diversification using data on 140 korean manufacturing multinational firms from 1993 to 2003 we find that emerging economy firms face an international diversification discount a negative relationship between international diversification and firm performance we also find that business group affiliation affects the international diversification discount differently during the two periods of market oriented institutional change particularly when firm performance is measured by the market to book value mbv the moderating effect of business group affiliation on the relationship between international diversification and mbv is negative during the institutional frictions period but becomes positive during the institutional convergence period in the later stage of institutional change our findings warn against viewing market oriented institutional change as a discrete event highlighting the importance of recognizing the qualitatively distinctive nature of different periods of market oriented institutional change in future research

speed of the internationalization process the role of diversity and depth in experiential learning by analyzing internationalization as a dynamic process we attempt to explain the speed of international operations in terms of learning acquired in the course of past international activities we consider that the speed of the internationalization process depends on the type of experiential learning that results from decisions implicit in the internationalization process choice of location and modes of operation firms develop two types of learning activities with respect to the selection of foreign markets and modes of operation diversity and depth of accumulated international activities we propose that depth of international activities has an inverted u shaped impact on the speed of the internationalization process while diversity of international activities has a u shaped influence on the speed of internationalization process the results of our longitudinal study of 889 firms over 23 years 1986 2008 suggest that diversity of international activities promotes long term learning by exposing the firm to richer experiences although such learning only takes place over time depth of international activities may accelerate the internationalization process in the short term but it eventually restrains its potential for development in the long term our research highlights the short term vs long term consequences of different types of decisions related to the internationalization process

third world copycats to emerging multinationals institutional changes and organizational transformation in the indian pharmaceutical industry this article investigates how indian pharmaceutical firms facing discontinuous institutional changes in their domestic environment due to economic liberalization and intellectual property reforms have undertaken organizational transformation internationalization of resources and product markets constitutes an important component of organizational transformation for local firms in emerging economies using longitudinal data on 206 indian pharmaceutical firms from 1995 2004 we find that firms access to international technological and financial resources enables product market internationalization furthermore we theorize and find support for our predictions that the association between international resources and markets is conditioned by time and business group affiliation and product market internationalization affects financial performance several implications thus emerge for theory and practice associated with the sources of competitiveness in emerging economy firms and their transformation into globally competitive multinational firms

the effect of natural resources on a sustainable development policy the approach of non sustainable externalities abstract the debate about the importance of non renewable resources for economic development between optimists and pessimists shows that the extensive depletion of non renewable resources particularly oil along with a higher level of consumption could have a significant impact on the economic development of future generations based on this debate this paper proposes criteria under which the depletion of non renewable resources would create excess costs for future generations therefore this paper aims to answer the question what will be the impact of the depletion of non renewable resources on sustainable economic development accordingly a sustainable development policy appears feasible by minimizing non sustainable externalities which derive from future externalities that weigh the benefits from a previous employment of natural resources the research based on qualitative analysis clarifies the reasons for and the extents of taking sustainability into account as well as points to difficulties of implementing policies to time the transition towards a sustainable economic development finally the research shows the implications of this approach for environmental degradation the depletion of non renewable resources and energy production

opec how to transition from black to green gold global discussions on the reduction of co2 emissions and the increasing interest in alternative energy sources and production technologies have started to concern oil exporting nations international discussions on projects such as desert tec might also have sparked their interest to explore a possible diversification of their energy resource production portfolio however extremely low in country retail prices of fossil fuels to date present a significant economic hurdle to such developments this paper uses a formal model setup accompanied by intuitive graphical illustrations as well as a numerical example to analyze fossil fuel abundant nations potential to transition to a supplier of renewable energy as well as possible pitfalls resulting from their status quo situation

regional modelling of oil discovery and production abstract this paper outlines a new method for summarizing the exploratory and production potential of an aggregated geographical region in terms of the past history of exploration and production at the field level the analytical framework is divided into two stages first the discovery analysis describes the physical returns to exploratory drilling marginal expected field size which provide additions to the potential reserve base subsequently the production analysis specifies the economic costs of bringing new fields on stream and also describes the likely production rate from fields of distinct physical characteristics in both the exploratory stage and the production stage the negative influence of resource depletion is modelled explicitly the expected size of successive field discoveries is subject to exponential decay at a rate determined by analysis of past discovery history in the production stage production flow declines exponentially from the peak rate as the field is exhausted finally the paper contains new estimates of development cost functions that are sensitive to both economic parameters and the physical characteristics of fields the cost functions relate total investment expenditure to the size of fields the rate of extraction and the productivity of individual wells the analytical framework is illustrated by application to 37 individual regions around the world

engineering growth business group structure and firm performance in china s transition economy business groups have received increasing attention from academics interested in interorganizational relations and their impact on firms as part of industrial reform the chinese government began in the mid 1980s to encourage firms to form business groups with structural characteristics that promised to enhance financial performance and productivity using 1988 90 panel data on china s 40 largest business groups and their 535 member firms the study finds that the presence and predominance of interlocking directorates and finance companies in business groups improved the financial performance and productivity of the groups member firms in addition firms in groups with nonhierarchical organizational structures performed better than firms in hierarchical groups suggesting that complete integration into a hierarchical organization is not an optimal strategy

springboard internationalization by emerging market firms speed of first cross border acquisition according to the springboard perspective emerging market multinationals seek strategic assets aggressively from the outset in this paper we investigate the role of firms institutional embeddedness in terms of age and affiliation to business group on their aggressive internationalization pursuits an issue which has remained less explored in international business scholarship this study based on 8163 indian listed firms over 18 years identifies a trend that younger firms founded in the liberalized era post 1991 and unaffiliated firms are more likely to pursue aggressive internationalization by conducting their first cross border acquisition cba faster among affiliated firms younger ones are relatively faster in conducting their first cba furthermore the evidence signals a moderating impact of inter group heterogeneity in terms of group level assets and foreign investments on the relationship between firm age and aggressive internationalization

a general theory of springboard mnes the springboard view has become one theoretic lens to analyze emerging market multinationals emnes in the past decade a decade after its first introduction in 2007 new developments offer keen insights on these firms and mnes in general that aggressively engage in critical asset seeking we compare this view with other ib theories highlighting their differences as well as complementarity we articulate unique strengths and weaknesses of emnes including their vulnerability and complexity caused in part by home country institutions we discuss amalgamation ambidexterity and adaptation advantages that differentiate springboard mnes from more established advanced country mnes and explain why and how springboard acts should be analyzed along with global competitiveness augmentation we introduce an upward spiral concept to advance our understanding of linkages between springboard and post springboard activities and explain some critical cross cultural and human resource management issues in the process to help continued research on springboard mnes we highlight macro and micro management issues that are particularly worth exploring

building capabilities for international operations through networks a study of indian firms in this study we seek to explain how firms from emerging markets build capabilities to operate in international markets through learning from parental networks the building of these capabilities is of particular interest as firms from emerging markets may not necessarily possess the monopolistic advantages commonly referred to in ib literature which allow a firm to succeed in international markets using lagged cross sectional regression models on a sample of 794 indian firms we found that firms draw on the international experience of their parental and foreign networks to build such capabilities findings also indicate that network scope is beneficial for increasing exposure to international markets only in the case of networks that are either small or medium sized additionally we found that firms lacking market power in their home market benefit through foreign partnerships when internationalizing operations

business groups as information resource an investigation of business group affiliation in the indian software services industry although business groups benefit firms when markets fail does group affiliation continue to be an advantage for firms in deregulated globally competitive industries i argue that affiliation allows firms to tap into the knowledge and connections of sister affiliates this enables them to attract clients from more industries and foreign markets than can unaffiliated firms and to attain higher international sales using data from the indian software industry i find support for these hypotheses but only for 2000 02 when competition increased as a result of new deregulation these results suggest business groups continue to provide benefits to group affiliated firms including information on market opportunities and reputation signaling to clients abstract from author

much ado about hotelling beware the ides of hubbert abstract much economic literature analyzes the hotelling principal little economic literature analyzes the hubbert curve although much controversy surrounds it this difference in emphasis by economists needs to be reconsidered critically and towards that end we attempt to look at both concepts simultaneously we test whether a simple hubbert curve model is a significant determinant of world oil price changes and whether one of the main determinants of the hotelling principle the discount rate also affects world oil prices an autoregressive distributed lag ardl bound testing approach is used to examine the effects of a hubbert index variable and a hotelling discount rate variable on the world wide price of oil results show the discount rate the most important hotelling variable has little effect on oil prices but that the hubbert curve model does show a large effect on oil prices oil is a non renewable natural resource par excellence yet the results suggest that the hotelling principle is not an important determinant for oil prices yet the hubbert curve and the theory surrounding the hubbert curve is an important determinant of oil prices