international institutions and the volatility of international trade during the past half century states have established a large number of international trade institutions both multilateral and regional in scope the existing literature on this topic emphasizes that these agreements are chiefly designed to liberalize and increase the flow of overseas commerce yet such institutions have another function that has been largely ignored by researchers namely reducing volatility in trade policy and trade flows exposure to global markets increases the vulnerability of a country s output to terms of trade shocks governments seek to insulate their economies from such instability through membership in international trade institutions particularly the world trade organization wto and preferential trading arrangements ptas we hypothesize that these institutions reduce the volatility of overseas commerce we further hypothesize that because market actors prefer price stability trade institutions increase the volume of foreign commerce by reducing trade variability this article conducts the first large scale multivariate statistical tests of these two hypotheses using annual data on exports for all pairs of countries from 1951 through 2001 the tests provide strong support for our arguments ptas and the wto regime significantly reduce export volatility in so doing these institutions also increase export levels

trade disputes and the implementation of protection under the gatt an empirical assessment abstract this paper is a first attempt to empirically determine why countries choose to violate or adhere to gatt rules when making trade policy adjustments between negotiating rounds we use a previously unexploited set of data in which countries implemented two types of protection under the gatt system between 1973 and 1994 i legal protection in which countries utilized the gatt s safeguards provisions and ii illegal protection in which the protection was provided outside of the safeguards provisions resulting in a formal trade dispute we find substantial evidence that concerns for retaliation affect government policy decisions in ways which contribute to the explanation of the existence of trade disputes

growth and profitability of small and medium sized enterprises some welsh evidence foreman peck j makepeace g and morgan b 2006 growth and profitability of small and medium sized enterprises some welsh evidence regional studies 40 307 319 policy makers throughout the organization for economic co operation and development oecd are keen to promote the development of small and medium sized enterprises smes by a wide variety of means the present study of over 1600 welsh smes casts doubt on the effectiveness of doing so by grants by encouraging trade associations by pursuing current initiatives in training or by stimulating innovation as defined by sme management on the other hand it finds that support for selective information technology investment and for marketing planning could be beneficial additional results that might be addressed by policy are short termism by older managers preferring current to future profits more than younger managers signs that fixed costs of tax compliance bear substantially more heavily on the profitability of smaller smes and evidence

the role of multilateral institutions in international trade cooperation the world trade organization wfo lacks the power to directly enforce agreements it is therefore important to understand what role the wto can play to facilitate international cooperation and whether a multilateral institution can offer distinct advantages over a web of bilateral agreements this paper examines two potential benefits of a multilateral trade institution first verifying violations of the agreements and informing third parties thus facilitating multilateral reputation mechanisms second promoting multilateral trade negotiations rather than a web of bilateral negotiations the model suggests that a multilateral approach is particularly important when there are strong imbalances in bilateral trading relationships

trade liberalization antidumping and safeguards evidence from india s tariff reform abstract this paper is the first to use product level data to examine empirically whether countries use antidumping and safeguard exceptions to unwind commitments to lower tariffs in the face of domestic political economic pressure we focus on the case of india a country that underwent a major exogenous tariff reform program in the early 1990s and subsequently initiated substantial use of safeguard and antidumping import restrictions we first estimate structural determinants of india s import protection using the grossman and helpman 1994 model and provide evidence from its pre reform tariff data of 1990 that is consistent with the theory we then re estimate the model on the indian tariff data after the trade liberalization is complete and find that the model no longer fits a result consistent with theory and evidence provided in other settings that india s 1991 1992 imf arrangement can be interpreted as resulting in an exogenous shock to india s tariff policy however when we re estimate the model on data from 2000 2002 that more completely reflects india s cross product variation in import protection by including both its post reform tariffs and its additional non tariff barriers of antidumping and safeguard import protection the significance of the grossman and helpman model determinant estimates is restored we interpret these combined results as evidence that india unwound its commitment to reduce tariffs through use of antidumping and safeguard protection in the face of political economic pressure the estimates are also economically important and provide one explanation for separate results in the literature that the magnitude of import reduction associated with india s use of antidumping is similar to the initial import expansion associated with its tariff reform finally we interpret the implications of our results for the burgeoning research literature examining the effects of liberalization on india s micro level development

ntbfs the french case abstract new technology based firms ntbfs represent only a small proportion of the firms established in france each year they attract very little specific attention from the national statistical apparatus and are considered to be of marginal significance by both the public authorities and financial institutions although the definition of ntbfs is problematic the available evidence suggests that the survival rate of technology based firms is higher than that of other start ups the most successful in terms of growth belong to dense and convergent networks through which they interact with larger firms and research organisations there is very little public policy specifically targeted on ntbfs in france instead public financing has been devoted mainly to the development of smes in general in support of their role in the creation of new employment and to supporting technology based firms both large and small to strengthen the international competitiveness of the french industry

nonparametric estimation of the impact of taxes on female labor supply this paper proposes a simple extension of nonparametric estimation methods for nonlinear budget set models derived in blomquist and newey 2002 to censored dependent variables the nonparametric method is applied to estimate female labor supply elasticities using data on married women from the 1985 and 1989 waves of the panel study of income dynamics exploiting the substantial variation in budget sets caused by the tax reform act of 1986 as a source of identification the estimated wage elasticities from this new method are 0 56 overall and 0 27 on the intensive margin the income elasticity estimates are close to 0 67 overall and 0 13 on the intensive margin compared with the linear labor supply model the estimated elasticities are usually larger for the nonparametric specifications that account for nonlinear budget sets copyright 2010 john wiley sons ltd

is the wto passe the wto has delivered policy outcomes that are very different from those likely to emerge out of the recent wave of preferential trade agreements ptas should economists see this as an efficient institutional hand off where the wto has carried trade liberalization as far as it can manage and is now passing the baton to ptas to finish the job this paper surveys a growing economics literature on international trade agreements and argues on this basis that the wto is not passe rather and subject to some caveats this survey of research to date suggests that the wto warrants strong support while a more cautious view of ptas seems appropriate

developing countries as plaintiffs and defendants in gatt wto trade disputes developing countries have been increasing their participation in the formal institutions and proceedings of the multilateral trading system a prominent example is their more frequent involvement as defendants and plaintiffs in gatt wto trade disputes this paper provides an initial economic appraisal of developing country performance in the gatt wto dispute settlement system we measure the economic resolution of these disputes through trade liberalisation gains and our results suggest that developing country plaintiffs have had more success under wto disputes than was the case under the gatt we also document evidence on potential determinants of this success the capacity for plaintiffs to make credible retaliatory threats and the guilty determinations by gatt wto panels finally there is also some evidence that developing countries have recognised the importance of retaliatory threats and have responded by changing their pattern of dispute initiation under the wto to better take advantage of the instances in which they have sufficient leverage to threaten retaliation and induce compliance with gatt wto obligations

semi parametric estimation of the effect of health on labour force participation of married women this paper uses the semi parametric method for binary choice models developed by wang and zhou 1995 to estimate the effect of health on the labour force participation of married women using data from the panel study of income dynamics 1989 interviewing year the semi parametric method is particularly useful if empirical studies involve many explanatory variables and large sample sizes the estimation results show that the health condition is a good predictor of participation the results also demonstrate that the easy to compute semi parametric method is practical for empirical studies furthermore the empirical results suggest that both logit and probit estimators may underestimate the effect of wives health conditions on their labour force participation

does antidumping use contribute to trade liberalization in developing countries some supporters of antidumping have argued that this procedure serves as a kind of safety valve for protectionist pressure in this paper we investigate whether there is empirical evidence that the use of antidumping actions has contributed to ongoing tariff reductions over the period 1988 to 2004 in a sample of 23 developing countries some of which have become aggressive users of antidumping in recent years the evidence is not supportive of the safety valve argument for these countries instead evidence suggests that past use of antidumping may have led to less rather than more trade liberalization

the trade effects of us anti dumping actions against china post wto entry since china s entry into the wto us anti dumping ad actions against china have increased particularly with respect to multiple petitions distinguishing between us single and multiple petitions we examine the trade effects of us ad actions against china based on an unbalanced panel of quarterly trade data the results show that a us single petition investigation greatly restrains us imports of the filed products from china but also causes more significant import diversion from non named countries in the short run a preliminary ad duty imposed on china via a us multiple petition not only restrains us imports of the filed products from china but also prevents trade diversion from non named countries in the long run a final ad duty on china resulting from a us multiple petition creates a larger destructive effect on china and causes us import diversion from non named countries thus a final ad duty imposed on china following a us multiple petition not only harms china s exports but also fails to help the us achieve import substitution furthermore we have been able to reveal the negative trade effect of a preliminary ad duty even in cases where the ultimate decision is not to impose a final duty

how do countries respond to anti dumping filings dispute settlement and retaliatory anti dumping empirical studies have found that countries may respond strategically to the antidumping petitions filed against their exporters through their own retaliatory actions although most previous studies have focused on retaliatory antidumping filings in this paper we explore another potential avenue for strategic response filing a complaint under the world trade organization s wto dispute settlement understanding using a panel of global antidumping filings between 1995 and 2011 we analyze under what conditions countries will choose to retaliate through either an antidumping petition or a wto dispute and to what degree these two strategies are complementary or act as substitutes we find statistical evidence that countries are more likely to file a wto dispute when they have also filed retaliatory antidumping petition suggesting that these two strategies may be complementary jel classification f13

safeguards and retaliatory threats abstract this is the first empirical article to analyze the response of shareholders to the threat of retaliatory tariffs authorized by the world trade organization wto we use event study methodology to gauge the impact of european union eu retaliatory threats stemming from the 2002 imposition of u s steel safeguards results indicate that the u s stock returns of firms slated for wto authorized tariffs reacted negatively to the announcements signaling an increased likelihood of retaliation shareholders also generally responded positively to the early cancellation of the safeguards which removed the risk of retaliation industry level analysis indicates that producers of apparel tobacco and transportation equipment were particularly affected by the threat of retaliatory tariffs second stage estimates suggest that retaliatory threats have a more negative impact on firms with a higher export share to the eu greater profit growth and low research and development intensity

trade deflection and trade depression this is the first paper to empirically examine whether a country s use of an import restricting trade policy distorts a foreign country s exports to third markets we first develop a theoretical model of worldwide trade in which the imposition of antidumping and safeguard taris or trade remedies by one country causes significant distortions in world trade flows we then empirically test this model by investigating the eect of the united states use of such import restrictions on japanese exports of roughly 4800 products into 37 countries between 1992 and 2001 our estimation yields evidence that us restrictions both deflect and depress japanese export flows to third countries imposition of a us antidumping measure against japan deflects trade as the average antidumping duty on japanese exports leads to a 5 7 increase in japanese exports of the same product to the average third country market the imposition of a us antidumping measure against a third country depresses trade as the average us duty imposed on a third country leads to a 5 19 decrease in japanese exports of that same product to the average third country s market we also document the substantial variation in trade deflection and trade depression across dierent importing countries and exported products

on the role of retaliation in trade agreements this paper analyzes the role of retaliation in trade agreements it shows that in the presence of private information retaliation can always be used to increase the welfare derived from such agreements by the participating governments in particular it is shown that retaliation is a necessary feature of any efficient equilibrium we argue that retaliation would not be necessary if governments could resort to international transfers or export subsidies to compensate for terms of trade externalities within the current world trading system though in which transfers are seldom observed whereas export subsidies are prohibited the use of the remaining trade instruments in a retaliatory fashion might be optimal the model is used to interpret the retaliatory use of antidumping observed in the last decades and the proliferation of these measures relative to other trade remedies

university spin out companies and venture capital abstract the creation of university spin out companies that create wealth is a major policy objective of governments and universities finance is a catalyst of this wealth creation yet access to venture capital is a major impediment faced by these companies in this article we adopt a finance pecking order perspective to examine the problems faced by those university spin out companies seeking to access venture capital we triangulate evidence from spin out companies university technology transfer offices and venture capital firms in the uk and continental europe to identify the problems and to suggest policy developments for these parties as well as government we compare perceptions of high tech venture capital firms that invest in spin outs with those that do not and also consider vcs views on spin outs versus other high tech firms our evidence identifies a mismatch between the demand and supply side of the market in line with the pecking order theory venture capitalists prefer to invest after the seed stage however in contrast to the pecking order theory ttos see venture capital as more important than internal funds early on we develop policy implications for universities technology transfer offices academic entrepreneurs venture capital firms and government and suggest areas for further research

effects of short and long term unemployment on health satisfaction evidence from german data the purpose of this study is to analyse the effects of short and long term unemployment on health satisfaction the data source used for the analysis is the german socio economic panel gsoep which given its longitudinal structure allows one to better overcome the problem of endogeneity three different models are used in order to assess the effect of short and long term unemployment and reemployment on health satisfaction the results show that short term unemployment has only a significant and negative effect for men while for women short term unemployment does not have a significant effect on health satisfaction being unemployed for a long period has a significant and negative effect for both men and women finally it can be also concluded from the empirical analysis that reemployment has a significant and positive effect on health satisfaction for both unemployed men and women independent of how long individuals have been unemployed

the chilling trade effects of antidumping proliferation advocates of antidumping ad laws downplay their negative effects by arguing that the trade flows that are subject to ad are small and their distortions negligible but while the adverse effect of ad on product level trade has long been established the question remains whether there are trade effects at the aggregate level the recent proliferation wave of ad laws and their use provides us with a unique policy change to estimate the true trade effects of adopting and enforcing ad laws for this purpose we estimate the effect of ad on bilateral trade flows between the new adopters of ad laws and their trade partners using a gravity model of annual observations 1980 2000 our estimates show that ad has trade chilling effects on aggregate import volumes but the impacts are heterogeneous across sectors we find that new tough users experience a chilling of their aggregate imports of 14 billion us a year or 5 9 as a result of ad measures for some countries like mexico and india the dampening effects of ad laws on trade flows are found to substantially offset the increase in trade volumes derived from trade liberalization

firms governments and wto adjudication japan s selection of wto disputes what explains the selection of cases for wto adjudication this article explores the business conditions under which industries lobby their home government to use the wto adjudication process and the political factors that influence government decisions it explains the industry pattern of selection for international trade disputes as a function of the velocity of the business environment while wto adjudication is seen as costly and slow a positive ruling brings broad benefits in terms of deterrence against future discrimination firms in static industries will invest in wto dispute settlement to achieve these benefits but firms in industries shaped by dynamic competition have high opportunity costs that make them less willing to pursue adjudication this argument accounts for why there are fewer wto cases about electronics industry issues than there are likely incidences of protectionist measures since japan is a leading exporter and provides a government report with unique data on potential wto disputes it was chosen to test the argument in greater depth interviews with japanese business officials and statistical analysis of an original data set provide support for the argument the authors conclude that the passive attitude toward wto adjudication by japan s largest export industry electronics and the sensitivity of japan s diplomatic relations with china have constrained the cases that japan files these findings suggest that the effectiveness of the wto for dispute settlement is conditional upon the time horizon of the industry and the political relations among members

eu anti dumping and tariff cuts trade policy substitution the world trading system in its current form aims at reducing multilateral trade barriers across the board indeed the last successfully concluded multilateral trade negotiations led to substantial tariff concessions on the part of most developed economies what however happened to other forms of import protection have substantial tariff concessions subsequently been replaced by the use of alternative forms of import protection in this paper we empirically investigate the relationship between negotiated external tariff cuts and the subsequent use of anti dumping actions by the eu evidence is found for larger uruguay round tariff cuts increasing the probability of subsequent anti dumping investigations

does flexibility promote cooperation an application to the global trade regime do flexibility provisions in international agreements clauses allow ing for legal suspension of concessions without abrogating the treaty promote coop eration recent work emphasizes that provisions for relaxing treaty commitments can ironically make states more likely to form agreements and make deeper conces sions when doing so this argument has particularly been applied to the global trade regime the general agreement on tariffs and trade gatt and its successor the world trade organization wto yet the field has not produced much evidence bearing on this claim our article applies this claim to the global trade regime and its chief flexibility provision antidumping in contrast to prior work this article explic itly models the endogeneity and selection processes envisioned by the theory we find that states joining the wto are more likely to adopt domestic antidumping mech anisms likewise corrected for endogeneity states able to take advantage of the regime s principal flexibility provision by having a domestic antidumping mecha nism in place are significantly more likely to 1 join the wto 2 agree to more tightly binding tariff commitments and 3 implement lower applied tariffs as well

macro economic determinants of antidumping a comparative analysis of developed and developing countries abstract this study examines how macro factors influence the use of antidumping in developed and developing countries a panel data analysis of 99 countries over 1980 2000 reinforces the view that the primary jurisdiction for the antidumping law is really more political than economic furthermore it suggests that once the wto is fully enforced the use of antidumping will spread among developing countries not only due to greater liberalization pressures but also as many countries would like to create an antidumping ability so as to counter its use against them this may reverse the trade gains that liberalization may ensure to them this paper thus calls for the granting of the special and differential treatment to developing countries in this provision finally based on its findings the paper argues that future negotiations should be directed toward revising safeguard rules and replacing antidumping by this new clause

the perversity of preferences gsp and developing country trade policies 1976 2000 industrial countries maintain special tariff preferences namely the generalized system of preferences gsp for imports from developing countries critics have highlighted the underachieving nature of such preferences but developing countries continue to place the gsp at the heart of their agenda in multilateral negotiations what effect do such preferences have on a recipient s own trade policies the authors develop and test a simple theoretical model of a small country s trade policy choice using a dataset of 154 developing countries from 1976 through 2000 they find that countries removed from the gsp adopt more liberal trade policies than those remaining eligible the results corrected for endogeneity and robust to numerous alternative measures of trade policy suggest that developing countries may be best served by full integration into the reciprocity based world trade regime rather than continued gsp style special preferences

trade wars and trade talks when governments meet in the international arena their actions reflect the political situations at home previous studies of trade relations have focused on governments that are immune from political pressures and that act as benevolent servants of the public interest here we introduce domestic politics into the analysis of international economic relations we study the interactions between national leaders who are concerned both with providing a high standard of living to the general electorate and collecting campaign contributions from special interest groups our analysis sheds light on the determinants of the structure of protection in non cooperative and cooperative policy equilibria

the political economy of administered protection trade restrictions are hardly ever voted directly by congress though the threat of direct congressional action is frequently present pressure for protection is usually applied through the major instruments for the administrative regulation of imports the antidumping and countervailing duty procedures and the escape clause mechanism in this paper we will examine these instruments for the administrative regulation of imports the form of the paper is not novel a theory of how these mechanisms work is developed then operational implications of this theory are deduced and tested over the record of countervailing duty antidumping and escape clause cases decided from 1975 through 1979 this is the period over which the trade act of 1974 was in force because the nature of these mechanisms is relatively unfamiliar a relatively large amount of institutional information is provided

measuring the effect of disability on labor force participation this paper estimates the effect of disability on labor force participation by using symptoms or diseases as instruments in a simultaneous equations model of endogenous reported disability and labor force participation the results show that each measure of disability explains a significant amount of variation in labor force participation though the two are not perfect substitutes there is only weak evidence of endogeneity of the disability variables for cases where there is evidence of endogeneity the bias it causes has the opposite effect of that hypothesized in the literatute i e stress causes health to deteriorate with labor force participation furthermore it has only insignificant effects on the coefficients for other variables

rules or politics an empirical analysis of itc anti dumping decisions this research analyzes the international trade commission s anti dumping decisions from 1980 to 1986 the results suggest that commissioners use criteria consistent with the instructions set forth in u s legislation the analysis also indicates that political variables help predict commissioner decisions petitions involving senate oversight committee members constituencies may be systematically favored in the process evidence of possible bias toward less developed country exports is presented as well the methodology also yields estimates of commissioner specific fixed effects

welfare costs of the u s antidumping and countervailing duty laws abstract the antidumping ad and countervailing duty cvd laws in the united states have become the most pervasive form of import relief sought by domestic producers this paper estimates the collective economic effect of the hundreds of active u s ad cvd orders using a computable general equilibrium model we estimate that the collective net economic welfare cost in 1993 of these orders to be 4 billion this welfare estimate is sensitive to various modeling assumptions which are explored in the paper with the implementation of the uruguay round agreements the ad cvd laws remain one of the costliest programs restraining u s trade

dynamic tariffs with asymmetric information recent developments in dynamic game theory are applied to determine when two countries can sustain freer trade given that they determine trade policies non cooperatively countries know their own level of protection but not the other country s level of protection using import trigger strategies cooperation in the form of low tariffs can be supported although there are periodic reversionary high tariff episodes however if terms of trade trigger strategies are used cooperation does not occur

how states ration flexibility tariffs remedies and exchange rates as policy substitutes a close look at the commitments of world trade organization wto members presents a striking paradox most states could raise their duties significantly before falling afoul of their wto obligations moreover such binding overhang varies between countries some could more than double the amount of trade protection they offer overnight whereas others are tightly constrained what accounts for this variation the author argues that more flexibility is not always better obtaining it and subsequently using it are both costly rather than maximize flexibility states thus seek an optimal amount if they have access to policy space through other means such as currency devaluations and trade remedies they will exercise restraint in seeking binding overhang the same supply side logic holds at the domestic level governments strategically withhold binding overhang from industries that are able to rely on trade remedies despite the fact that these tend to have the greatest political clout

cumulation and itc decision making the sum of the parts is greater than the whole in 1984 congress amended the antidumping and countervailing duty laws man dating that the international trade commission itc cumulate imports across countries when determining injury we estimate that cumulation increases the probability of an affirmative injury determination by 20 to 30 percent and has changed the itc s decision from negative to affirmative for about one third of cumulated cases we also show that the protective effect of cumulation increases as the number of countries involved increases holding import market share constant that is cumulated imports have a super additive effect on itc decision making

do uk venture capitalists still have a bias against investment in new technology firms abstract the growing economic and political importance of the new economy throughout 1990s has added greater saliency to both supply and demand sides policy oriented questions about the availability of venture capital as a catalyst for new or high technology based early stage investments this paper analyses the changing attitudes of uk venture capital firms to investment in technology enterprises a 1999 survey of 60 uk venture capital firms was structured to be directly comparable to a 1991 study the main findings demonstrate the increasing importance of technology investments to vc firms particularly generalists accordingly the adoption of collaborative strategies to access intellectual capital and complimentary resources via inter firm networks is particularly important the authors conclude that despite material improvements a bias is likely to remain against vc firms involvement in the earliest seed and start up stages of the technology investment cycle

how bad is antidumping evidence from panel data abstract current research on antidumping suggests a number of channels through which antidumping affects the volume of world trade this paper uses a structural approach to the gravity model framework to evaluate these hypotheses using data on trade volume over the period 1948 to 2001 we conclude that the volume and welfare effects have been negative but quite modest

differences in the determinants and targeting of antidumping china and india compared despite both being developing countries china and india have markedly contrasting patterns in their use and targeting of antidumping ad measures we explore the factors driving ad use by these two countries considering in turn macroeconomic strategic and other determinants we find more regular or systematic features of ad use by china while india displays a less systematic pattern of ad use economic growth ad club effect and fta participation are shown to constrain ad use by china compared to india ad use by china is also more sensitive across industries furthermore china targets developed countries more than developing countries while india is less discriminating with respect to the country type it targets

venture finance small firms and public policy in the uk abstract during the tenure of the current conservative administration public policy in britain has very much favoured the smaller firm this policy emphasis appears to be based on a belief in the superior job creating potential and innovatory capacity of smaller firms over their larger counterparts evidence presented in the paper shows that small firms have indeed made an important contribution to innovation in the uk and that their share of significant british innovations has increased significantly since the mid 1970s an important aspect of small firm policy in the uk has been the introduction of several schemes designed to increase the flow of capital into the small firm sector with special emphasis being placed on venture capital the first of these schemes the loan guarantee scheme has directed capital from the banks into over 14 000 small firms the second scheme the business expansion scheme has increased significantly the overall flow of venture capital and has biased investments towards start up and early stage financing these two schemes together with the establishment of an unlisted securities market have provided some impetus to the development of private sector venture capital in britain which is growing apace essentially the public sector schemes have underwritten the costs of entry to the venture capital market of both individual and institutional investors in other words they have had an important catalytic effect in stimulating the growth of private sector venture capital industry which is now the largest in europe

new technology based firms in innovation networks symplectic and generative impacts abstract the traditional body of research on new technology based firms reflects the linear sequential view of the technological innovation process the modern innovation theory views the innovation process as a complex interative process that is essentially systemic in character the systemic view of the technological innovation process largely remains to be implemented in research on new technology based firms the present study represents an attempt to bridge this gap by applying a systemic approach to research on new technology based firms the empirical part of the present study develops and empirically tests a model that classifies new technology based firms into science based firms and engineering based firms the two categories are defined in terms of the functional relationship between the new technology based firm and the articulation process of basic technologies in the model new technology based firms are analyzed in terms of the systemic knowledge conversion process to which they are attached the model receives support in three empirical databases compiled among new technology based firms in finland the united kingdom and silicon valley the analysis of the silicon valley database is the first ever systematic survey of the spin off firms of stanford university

antidumping and retaliation threats abstract we propose and test two ways in which retaliation threats may dampen the antidumping ad activity we observe first the threat of retaliatory ad actions may make a domestic industry less likely to name a foreign import source in an ad petition second the prospect of a gatt wto trade dispute may make government agencies less likely to rule positive in their ad decision using a nested logit framework we find evidence that both retaliation threats substantially affect us ad activity from 1980 through 1998

cooperation in wto s tariff waters this paper examines the extent to which tariff cooperation is observed among world trade organization members with the help of a simple political economy model we show that tariffs are positively

anti dumping a growing problem in international trade this paper discusses the issue of anti dumping ad proliferation ad is used more frequently by more countries and against more products than ever in its history i review ad filing patterns with an emphasis on the scope of countries and industries seeking protection recent trends suggest that the widespread embrace of ad protection makes the prospect for ad reform increasingly unlikely ad is no longer being used solely by high income developed countries it is increasingly being used by middle income and even lower income countries new users have chosen to use ad very intensively per dollar of imports the new users have filed ad cases up to 15 20 times more frequently than the traditional ad users such as the us and eu the evolving set of ad users complicates ad negotiations in the near term strong opposition by the us and eu makes reform a highly unlikely outcome in the longer run rising use of ad against the us and eu could conceivably weaken their support for ad yet the same trends that might finally cause the us and eu to realise ad is a failed policy will likely make reform impossible

self assessed health reference levels and mortality the paper studies the relationship between self assessed health and subsequent mortality in the german socio economic panel specifically i examine whether socio economic characteristics of respondents have an effect on mortality conditional on self assessed health such conditional effects are shown to exist for various covariates including age income and wealth these findings question the comparability of self assessed health across different socio economic groups

have uk venture capitalists a bias against investment in new technology based firms abstract this paper addresses the important question for innovation policy of whether or not uk venture capital firms show a bias against investing in technology based new and young enterprises the evidence from uk and us industry statistics indicates that pro rate american venture capital invest nearly three times as much finance into technology based start up and early stage investments as their uk counterparts when later stage mbo lbo investments are removed from the data us venture capital firms are also more likely to invest at the earlier stages of investment while the uk industry has increasingly come to be dominated by management buy outs buy ins and other later stage refinancing activities in 1991 a postal survey was conducted of 40 investing firms from a population of 75 uk venture capitalists which currently invest or are prepared to consider investing in technology based companies the sample was segregated into generalist funds and technology specialists depending on the percentage greater or less than 50 of technology based investee companies within the venture capitalists current portfolios the results confirmed that technology projects had to meet more rigorous selection criteria than non technology projects in undertaking technology based project evaluations investors imposed higher investment return hurdle rates at each stage of investment other than seed capital technology based projects were also more frequently required to address minimum markets greater than the uk alone when compared to other investment categories no material bias was found between the actions of generalist and specialist funds towards technology based projects the ratio of technology based projects offered to technology based projects accepted was similar for both groups

are business startups debt rationed using a large random sample of u k start ups and a rich data set the paper demonstrates that human capital is the true determinant of survival and that the correlation between financial capital and survival is spurious provision of finance is demand driven with banks supplying funds elastically and business requests governing take up firms self select for funds on the basis of the human capital endowments of the proprietors with better businesses more likely to borrow a reason why others have seemingly identified start up debt gaps may be the failure to test a sufficiently rich empirical model copyright 1996 by royal economic society

reliance upon informants in the venture capital industry abstract can venture capital investors rely upon informants to be forthcoming with what they know or do they need to be concerned about self serving conduct these questions are investigated among two types of venture capital investors business angels and venture capital firms the results of the present study suggest that the more either type of investor is concerned with market or agency risk the less likely he or she will be to use informal network informants business associates and friends market risk is due to unforeseen competitive circumstances whereas agency risk results from the separate and possibly divergent interests of investors and their informants investors with a higher concern for risk consult formal network informants venture capital firm investors for information about market risk but concern with agency risk is not related to the frequency of use of venture capital firm sources agency risk deals with particular self interested individuals who are unlikely to be known to the formal informant network venture capital firm investors consult formal network sources more frequently than do business angels compared to business angels they enjoy a much more efficient flow of information from their informants as they gain more experience exchanging information venture capital firm investors increase their reliance upon formal network informants because informal network informants have less experience exchanging information it is possible that some informal sources could escape being detected if they decided to act in a devious self interested manner rather than relying upon informal informants several investors indicated in face to face interviews that they prefer to perform their own due diligence business angels seem to distinguish between two types of informants close associates with whom they have had extensive investment experience and mere acquaintances to whom they are only weakly tied by a referral from a close associate or someone else it is quite likely that business angels rely upon informants who are close associates however the informants in this study were predominantly acquaintances which may be fairly typical of most business angel informants because they were acquaintances and not close associates they were not utilized much as informants venture capital firm investors rely heavily upon associates at other venture capital firms for market information because they do not trust other informants to the same extent they may wish to de emphasize their reliance upon them similarly there are indications that business angels rely upon close associates to provide them with information about agency factors because angels do not trust others for this information and may in fact have limited access to other informants they may wish to focus their search for information on business associates this would enable them to avoid the expense of investigating the reliability of other informants this research should be helpful to entrepreneurs who are searching for new venture funding it suggests that certain types of informants may be more effective in championing the prospects of a deal to a venture capitalist an entrepreneur with a technical or market advantage ought to approach a venture capital firm because the informant network for venture capital firms is highly interconnected with other venture capital firms it is likely that presenting a request for funding to one of them will quickly result in the sharing of it among their informant associates if entrepreneurs possess a market advantage they ought to concentrate on obtaining funding from the first venture capital firm investor who reviews the deal entrepreneurs who can argue that they are trustworthy or competent even if they lack a technical or market advantage ought to present their deals to a business angel using a close business associate as an intermediary a mere acquaintance used as an intermediary would be much less effective although statistical testing indicated that such an approach would not generate significant success interviews with business angels suggested that using a close associate as an intermediary would improve an entrepreneur s prospects especially if the business angel were relatively unconcerned about a deal s risk moreover using an informant intermediary to contact a business angel would avoid the need to do an initial background check on the entrepreneur

what explains the proliferation of antidumping laws a recent phenomenon is the rapid spread of antidumping ad laws mainly amongst developing countries i e china india mexico between 1980 and 2003 the number of countries in the world with an ad law more than doubled going from 36 to 97 countries this proliferation of trade protection laws amongst developing countries is likely to have substantial implications for trade as recently shown by vandenbussche and zanardi 2007 the purpose of this paper is to use a duration analysis to investigate the determinants leading a country to adopt an ad law we also analyze the related question of what explains the heterogeneity between countries that can be observed in terms of the time between adoption and their first use of the ad law we find strong evidence that retaliatory motives are at the heart of the proliferation decision as countries that were targeted by ad actions of traditioal users in the past i e us eu are much more likely to adopt an ad law also our evidence suggests that past trade liberalization substantially increases the probability of a country to adopt an ad law in addition we find that the size of the chemicals sector and the extent of steel imports are positively correlated with the probability to adopt the amount of inward fdi on the other hand has a clear negative effect on the probability to adopt while short term macroeconomic factors like gdp growth and exchange rate volatility seem to matter less for adoption asymmetric regional shocks and the development level of a country seem to raise the probability of starting to use an ad law our results are robust to several specifications of duration models

do countries free ride on mfn abstract the most favored nation mfn clause has long been suspected of creating a free rider problem in multilateral trade negotiations to address this issue we model multilateral negotiations as a mechanism design problem with voluntary participation we show that an optimal mechanism induces only the largest exporters to participate in negotiations over any product thus providing a rationalization for the principal supplier rule we also show that through this channel equilibrium tariffs vary according to the herfindahl hirschman index of export shares higher concentration in a sector reduces free riding and thus causes a lower tariff estimation of our model using sector level tariff data for the u s provides strong support for this relationship

tariff liberalisation and increased administrative protection is there a quid pro quo theoretical models and intuition suggest that the amount of non traditional protection such as anti dumping duties will increase as more traditional forms such as tariffs are lowered under multilateral trade agreements this paper is the first empirical study of the role of tariff liberalisation in the spread of anti dumping through both correlations and regression approaches we analyse the relationship between tariff concessions made during the uruguay round trade negotiations and the filing of anti dumping petitions with particular interest in whether multilateral trade reductions have spurred the recent growth in new users of anti dumping policies we find that at least for developing economies tariff reductions agreed to under the uruguay round not only increased the likelihood of a country using anti dumping protection but also the total number of anti dumping petitions filed by countries

the logic of private and collective action since mancur olson s logic of collective action 1965 it is impossible for political scientists to conceive of political participation without reference to his powerful argument linking numbers of participants public goods and participatory outcomes what is puzzling is the poor empirical support for this argument in the domain where it should work best namely explaining business political activity olson thought his arguments principally applicable to economic groups and for the empirical development of his arguments olson drew heavily on business interests the most active segment of the interest group community we explore these arguments with business political activities data by examining the statistical performance of various measures of market structure in determining business political activity and find little empirical support we do offer an alternative basis for business behavior lodged in both private and collective goods that preserves business rationality and also helps explain not only the amount of business political participation but the modes of business participation w hen we think about the paradox of participation one of the formative puzzles of modern political science we tend to think first of voting and citizen participation we think of the large numbers involved the small probability that an individual vote will be decisive and we conclude that no one will vote the puzzle then becomes why so many people do vote to find a solution we tend to plead some sort of diminished rationality such as the costs of voting are too low even to consider carefully or that they are outweighed by the norm of civic duty in this article we examine the paradox of participation in the principal context that olson 1965 considered it for the empirical development of his arguments olson drew heavily on business interests he observed that business was the most active segment of the interest group community and noted that for large numbers of participants seeking pubic goods the dominant choice is to do nothing he argued that business activity derived from multiple markets and related industries segmenting the larger business community into small groups in an oligopolistic market it is rational for the individual firm to participate in association with others or on its own a

antidumping signaling and cheap talk abstract in the united states there is evidence that domestic non filing firms do not always support dumping countervailing duty investigations absent other factors domestic firms have an unambiguous incentive to support petitions filed by other domestic producers we argue that in cases where the non complainant firm is not a significant importer or exporter the most plausible explanation is that non support acts as a costly signal of private information extending the model to allow firms to engage in cheap talk such signaling can take place even in the absence of an investigation this result provides an explanation for the puzzling observation that fewer antidumping investigations are filed than one would expect