commodity price shocks and civil conflict evidence from colombia how do income shocks aect armed con ict theory suggests two op posite eects if labor is used to appropriate resources violently higher wages may lower con ict by reducing labor supplied to appropriation this is the opportunity cost eect alternatively a rise in contestable income may increase violence by raising gains from appropriation this is the rapacity eect our paper exploits exogenous price shocks in inter national commodity markets and a rich dataset on civil war in colombia to assess how dierent income shocks aect con ict we examine changes in the price of agricultural goods which are labor intensive and natural resources which are capital intensive we focus on coee and oil the two largest exports we nd that a sharp fall in coee prices in the 1990s increased violence dierentially in regions growing more coee by lower ing wages and the opportunity cost of joining armed groups in contrast a rise in oil prices increased violence dierentially in the oil region by in creasing municipal revenue siphoned through rapacity this pattern holds in several other agricultural and natural resource sectors providing robust evidence that price shocks aect con ict in opposite directions depending on the factor intensity of the commodity

state characteristics and the location of foreign direct investment within the united states a conditional logit model of the location decision of foreign firms investing in manufacturing facilities in the united states is developed and estimated the authors results for 1981 83 indicate that states with higher per capita incomes and higher densities of manufacturing activity attracted relatively more foreign direct investment in addition higher wages deterred foreign direct investment while higher unemployment rates attracted it surprisingly higher unionization rates were associated with increased foreign direct investment overall higher taxes deterred foreign direct investment however more extensive transportation infrastructures and larger promotional expenditures were associated with increased foreign direct investment copyright 1991 by mit press

factors determining the location decisions of spanish mnes an analysis based on the investment development path on the basis of theoretical assumptions approached via the investment development path idp this study examines the most important factors for and against the location decisions in foreign direct investment taken by multinational enterprises considering host countries at very different stages of economic development latin american and european union countries we carry out different kinds of analysis on a sample of 103 firms belonging to a medium sized country that has recently achieved the status of developed country the results reveal that the importance that home country firm managers give to diverse location factors depends to a certain extent on the stage that each group of host countries has reached in the idp in line with prior research we find that firm managers consider mainly the group of factors associated with strategic asset seeking when deciding to locate their investments in the group of more developed countries european union in contrast our results show that when these firm managers choose the group of less developed countries latin america social and cultural factors play a more determinant role thus suggesting the importance of historical and cultural ties between the home and host countries

beyond trade the impact of preferential trade agreements on fdi inflows summary this paper investigates the effects of preferential trade agreements ptas on net fdi inflows of member countries using a comprehensive database of ptas in a panel setting pta membership is associated with a positive change in net fdi inflows and fdi gains increase with the market size of pta partners and their proximity to the host country the estimated relationship is driven by the developing countries in the sample and agreements signed in the late 1990s early 2000s a period when the majority of deep integration ptas have been advanced

foreign direct investment mode choice entry and establishment modes in transition economies in this study we bridge two streams of foreign direct investment literature specifically studies on establishment mode choice i e the choice between an acquisition and a greenfield establishment and studies on entry mode choice i e the choice between a wholly owned outlet and a subsidiary with shared ownership we arrive at a conceptual synthesis for an examination of the effects of the same predictors on the dual entry establishment mode choice made in the context of a single foreign investment we demonstrate that a parent firm s technological intensity international strategy and experience determine both establishment and entry mode choices moreover we apply williamson s new institutional economics to investigate the influence of institution building on multinational enterprises dual investment choice in the context of transition economies we test empirically the possible moderating effect of a host country s institutional environment we conclude that the degree of the host country s institutional advancement moderates the effect of both technological intensity and international strategy on the establishment and entry mode choice

acquisition or greenfield start up institutional cultural and transaction cost influences in this paper we develop and test a model of diversification mode choice how firms decide between acquisitions and greenfield start up ventures which includes institutional cultural and transaction cost variables using a sample of japanese firms entering western europe our results show the model correctly predicts over eighty seven percent of the mode choices thus we provide strong initial evidence to support using institutional cultural and transaction cost variables to predict firms choices between acquisitions and greenfield start ups in international expansion our findings also suggest that organizations which have developed strong intangible capabilities may be able to more readily leverage these capabilities through greenfield start ups copyright 2000 john wiley sons ltd

on the salience of ethnic conflict ray acknowledges support from the national science foundation under grants 0421852 and 0617827 esteban is a member of barcelona economics xrea and is grateful for support from the generalitat de catalunya and the cicyt sej 2006 00369 this research is part of the polarization and conflict research project cit2 ct 2004 506084 funded by the european commission dg research sixth framework program

firm specific assets and the gains from direct foreign investment it is widely held that multinational enterprises arise as a consequence of the existence of knowledge based firm specific assets such as superior technology or management know how these assets are much like public goods within the firm in that they can be costlessly supplied to additional plants thus leading to the efficiency of multiplant production foreign direct investment then consists of supplying the services of the assets to foreign operations and repatriated earnings are payments for these services these notions are formalized in a simple model of the multinational enterprise and welfare implications are analyzed copyright 1989 by the london school of economics and political science

foreign investment and spillover efficiency in an underdeveloped economy evidence from the mexican manufacturing industry abstract in this paper we consider the question whether differences in technical efficiency of mexican plants in part derive from spillover efficiency associated with foreign direct investment we use labour productivity as a measure of technical efficiency and relate this to capital intensity labour quality and scale of production we measure the degree of competition by different concentration indices and the final factor determining efficiency is the presence of foreign subsidiaries if there is a positive relation between efficiency of domestic plants and the foreign participation of various industries we conclude that there is a spillover of technical efficiency the empirical evidence from the study indicates that this is the case

exchange rate regimes and fdi in developing countries a propensity score matching approach abstract theory suggests that regimes of relatively fixed exchange rates encourage inward foreign direct investment fdi relative to regimes of more flexible exchange rates we use propensity score matching psm to investigate the relationship between the exchange rate regimes of 70 developing countries and fdi into such countries using de facto regime classifications we include a large number of variables in the logit equation that estimates the propensity score the probability of regime choice we also use general to specific modeling to get alternative parsimonious versions based on four matching procedures the average treatment effects suggest with overall modest statistical significance that relatively fixed de facto regimes do encourage fdi compared with relatively floating regimes in addition the estimated effects are sometimes economically large

a model of ethnic conflict we present a model of conflict in which discriminatory government policy or social intolerance is responsive to various forms of ethnic activism including violence it is this perceived responsiveness captured by the probability that the government gives in and accepts a proposed change in ethnic policy that induces individuals to mobilize in support for their cause yet mobilization is costly and demonstrators have to be compensated accordingly individuals have to weigh their ethnic radicalism with their material well being to determine the size of their money contribution to the cause our main results are i a one sided increase in radicalism or in population size increases conflict ii a one sided increase in income has ambiguous effects depending on the elasticity of contributions to income iii an increase in within group inequality increases conflict and iv an increase in the correlation between ethnic radicalism and inequality also increases conflict

competitive consequences of interfirm collaboration how joint ventures shape industry profitability recent international business research on international joint ventures focuses on how firms can use such ventures for knowledge access and learning to enhance their competitiveness thereby increasing competition in the industry by contrast research in industrial organization economics has observed that firms can also use joint ventures in various ways to attenuate competition in this paper we join these two streams of research to investigate the conditions under which joint ventures reduce or enhance competition by empirically testing the effects of different types of joint ventures on industry profitability our results suggest that joint ventures can be pro competitive or anti competitive depending on whether or not they are formed between competing firms represent foreign market entry and operate in relatively concentrated industries our paper shows the importance of adopting a contingent approach to evaluating the competitive implications of joint ventures and it also points to the value of reinvigorating international business research on the competitive context and consequences of interfirm collaboration

momentum investment strategies portfolio performance and herding a study of mutual fund behavior this study analyzes the extent to which mutual funds purchase stocks based on their past returns as well as their tendency to exhibit herding behavior i e buying and selling the same stocks at the same time the authors find that 77 percent of the mutual funds were momentum investors buying stocks that were past winners however most did not systematically sell past losers on average funds that invested on momentum realized significantly better performance than other funds the authors also find relatively weak evidence that funds tended to buy and sell the same stocks at the same time copyright 1995 by american economic association

distinction between intermediate and finished products in intra firm trade abstract although intra firm trade has been viewed as associated with vertical integration which exploits opportunities for exchange between inherently dissimilar economies it is more common between developed countries where horizontal integration is expected to dominate using unique data from 1974 to 1990 on swedish firms application of a tobit model explains variations in majority owned manufacturing affiliates internal imports of intermediate and finished goods on the basis of firms international organization of production effects which are unobservable in aggregate figures show up only when finished and intermediate goods are separated

economic development inequality war and state violence abstract this paper focuses on a political economy of humanitarian emergencies comprising a human made crisis in which large numbers of people die from war and state violence the article analyzes how economic decline income inequality pervasive rent seeking by ruling elites a reduced surplus to threaten the survival income of a large portion of the population a weakening state and competition for control of mineral exports contribute to emergencies economic regress and political decay bring about relative deprivation or perception by influential social groups of injustice arising from a growing discrepancy between what they expect and get

the power to hurt costly conflict with completely informed states according to common explanations of war since war is costly and risky rational states have incentives to strike a bargain and avoid conflict war is then the result of private information about capabilities or resolve and incentives to misrepresent this information or inability to make credible commitments fearon 1995 this article presents another rationalist explanation which does not depend on either of these mechanisms by modeling warfare as a costly bargaining process the paper demonstrates that inefficient fighting can occur in equilibrium under very general assumptions favoring peace specifically it is assumed that peace can be supported in equilibrium and that fighting brings no benefits to either state only costs despite the fact that there exist many agreements that pareto dominate the final settlement states are unable to agree to them and fighting can occur in equilibrium the equilibrium is driven by the ability of states to impose costs on their opponent and bear costs the power to hurt the opponent establishes a range of acceptable settlements and the existence of such a range makes inefficient equilibria possible the article suggests that 1 states may fight if they believe that seeking peace means accepting an unpalatable settlement and 2 a diminished ability to hurt the enemy is a major reason for war termination historical examples are provided to illustrate these results

the impact of u s tax reform on foreign direct investment in the united states abstract this study empirically examines how taxes shape foreign direct investment and finds that increased taxes spur inward foreign investment this finding conforms with theories that recognize that foreign investor response is critically shaped by the tax provisions faced by the foreign investor in his home country and by the effects of tax reform on pre tax asset returns we demonstrate that average tax rates may better proxy tax effects than do effective tax rates our findings are more robust than previous results since we utilize the entire 1980s tax history consider a fuller set of industry distinctions and estimate the tax responsiveness in the context of exchange rate fluctuations

firm specific assets and the link between exchange rates and foreign direct investment foreign direct investment fdi theory and empirical studies have generated mixed support for a link between exchange rates and fdi this paper argues that exchange rate movements may affect acquisition fdi because acquisitions involve firm specific assets which can generate returns in currencies other than that used for purchase using data on japanese acquisitions in the united states across three digit sic industries from 1975 to 1992 maximum likelihood estimates from discrete dependent variable models support the hypothesis that real dollar depreciations make japanese acquisitions more likely in u s industries particularly those which more likely have firm specific assets copyright 1997 by american economic association

accounting for endogeneity when assessing strategy performance does entry mode choice affect fdi survival firms choose strategies based on their attributes and industry conditions therefore strategy choice is endogenous and self selected empirical models that do not account for this and regress performance measures on strategy choice variables are potentially misspecified and their conclusions incorrect i highlight how self selection on hard to measure or unobservable characteristics can bias strategy performance estimates and recommend an econometric technique that has been developed to account for this effect although this concern applies to a wide range of strategy questions to demonstrate its effect i empirically examine if entry mode choice acquisition versus greenfield influences foreign direct investment survival in specifications that do not account for self selection i find that greenfield entries have survival advantages compared to acquisitions this confirms previous findings however the significance of this effect disappears once i account for self selection of entry mode in the empirical estimates the results confirm that estimates from models that do not account for self selection of strategy choice can lead to incorrect or misleading conclusions

discounting under uncertainty suppose asset pricing is governed by the capm or the icapm and the expected one period simple returns on the net cash flows of investment projects are constant through time then the net cash flows are priced by discounting their expected values with their expected one period simple returns but when net cash flows are priced by discounting their expected values with constant capm or icapm expected one period simple returns distributions of net cash flows more than one period ahead are likely to be skewed right expected payoffs are then larger than median pay offs and expected pay offs are progressively more unusual outcomes for longer investment horizons copyright 1996 by university of chicago press

immigration conflict and redistribution we study how the possibility of a conflict between natives and immigrants shapes income redistribution in democracies conflict erupts when immigrants are given less than what they could obtain by resorting to confrontation that in turn can make natives vote for lower tax rates and lower public spending we show that income redistribution both vertical from the rich to the poor and horizontal from natives to migrants decreases with the level of immigration this is because the threat of conflict intensifies as the migrant population becomes bigger inequality softens the effect of immigration on tax rates but reduces horizontal redistribution despite the threat of conflict the welfare of the native population unambiguously increases with the stock of migrants

foreign investment and productive efficiency the case of mexico this paper examines whether the relative performance of firms within mexican manufacturing industries varies systematically with the presence of foreign subsidiaries it also analyzes how foreign entry influences the technological structure in host country industries the findings suggest that 1 foreign presence in an industry is positively correlated with structural efficiency and 2 foreign entry is related to structural changes only in the modern part of the industries the most important source of spillover efficiency is found to be in the competitive pressure induced by the foreign firms i introduction a widely held view among economists studying foreign investment is that one of the important contributions to the host country is likely to stem from external effects or spillovers the spillovers can be of different kinds the foreign firms may influence the productivity and growth of the domestically owned firm they may change the nature and evolution of concentration they may alter financing marketing and technological and managerial practices in the industries that they enter et cetera because of great methodological difficulties in investigating these effects empirically in addition to lack of data few empirical investigations appear in the literature three available econometric studies deal with the influence of foreign investment on the technical efficiency of host country firms one focuses on australia caves 1974 one on canada globerman 1979 and one on mexico blomstrom and persson 1983 all three find some support for the spillover benefit hypothesis but none of the studies analyzes the nature of spillover efficiency in depth the present paper is an attempt to identify through what mechanisms the spillover efficiency of foreign investment takes place by analyzing the effects of foreign investment on the productive efficiency of the industrial structure in mexico we will examine whether the relative performance of firms within an industry varies systematically with the presence of foreign subsidiaries we will also analyze the impact of foreign investment on structural change that is how foreign entry influences the technological structure in host country industries

foreign market entry strategies and post entry growth acquisitions vs greenfield investments we examine the relationship between the foreign market entry strategy and the subsequent growth of a subsidiary we build upon the penrose theory of firm growth and on the organizational economics international management and foreign market entry strategy literatures we hypothesize that the post entry growth of acquisitions is positively associated with weak and codifiable interdependence within the multinational enterprise network whereas the post entry growth of greenfield investments is positively related to strong and complex interdependence empirical findings from a sample of japanese subsidiaries in the us lend support to our argument

prize sharing in collective contests the characteristics of endogenously determined sharing rules and the group size paradox are studied in a model of group contest with the following features i the prize has mixed private public good characteristics ii groups can differ in marginal cost of effort and their membership size iii in each group the members decide how much effort to put without observing the sharing rules of the other groups it is shown that endogenous determination of group sharing rules completely eliminates the group size paradox i e a larger group always attains a higher winning probability than a smaller group unless the prize is purely private in addition an interesting pattern of equilibrium group sharing rules is revealed the group attaining the lower winning probability is the one choosing the rule giving higher incentives to the members

a new test of the three moment capital asset pricing model this paper tests the kraus litzenberger 1976 three moment capital asset pricing model using hansen s 1982 generalized method of moments gmm the gmm approach does not impose strong distributional assumptions on the asset returns this is an interest ing issue since there is no obvious multivariate distribution for returns that also exhibits co skewness using monthly stock returns to test the model there is some evidence that systematic skewness is priced

systematic skewness in asset pricing an empirical examination of the taiwan stock market this paper is an empirical study of asset pricing with the systematic skewness in the pricing model we adopt the fama french three factor model which incorporates the firm size and book to market ratio in asset pricing as the base case and then includes the skewness factor used by harvey and siddique in the pricing model the evidence shows that systematic skewness is significant and might be important in asset pricing when portfolios are formed by industry firm size book to market or momentum strategies when portfolios are constructed by momentum or coskewness strategies lower momentum or lower coskewness portfolios exhibit higher skewness and higher kurtosis when portfolios are grouped by excess returns it is seen that the average excess return is positively correlated with size and coskewness thus the systematic skewness is closely related to firm size and the relationship between systematic skewness and excess return is obscured by the reverse firm size effect

the dynamics of foreign direct investments in land and pollution accumulation following the recent increase of foreign direct investments in land this paper studies their possible effects on the development of a local economy to this aim we use a two sector model external and local with heterogeneous agents external investors and local land owners we assume that both sectors are negatively affected by pollution but only the external sector is polluting the local government can tax the external sector s production activities to finance environmental defensive expenditures we first examine the equilibria that emerge in the model from the dynamics of pollution and physical capital and then investigate the conditions for the coexistence of the two sectors and the impact of the external sector on the revenues of the local population using numerical simulations we show that a revenue increasing path may occur only if the pollution tax is high enough and the impact of the external sector on pollution is low enough otherwise foreign direct investments may end up impoverishing the local population

troubled banks impaired foreign direct investment the role of relative access to credit during the 1980 s theories were developed to explain the striking correlation between real exchange rates and foreign direct investment fdi however this relationship broke down for japanese fdi in the 1990 s as the real exchange rate appreciated while fdi plummeted we propose the relative access to credit hypothesis and show that unequal access to credit by japanese firms contributes to the explanation of declining japanese fdi using bank level and firm level data sets we find that financial difficulties at banks were economically and statistically important in reducing the number of fdi projects by japanese firms into the united states jel g21 f36

multinationals multi plant economies and the gains from trade a general equilibrium model of a multinational enterprise based on economies of multi plant operation is developed these economies are modelled as arising from the existence of a joint input whose productivity in each production facility is independent of the number of facilities maintained by a firm the multinational thus offers the world increased technical efficiency by eliminating the duplication of the joint input that would occur with independent national firms since this technical efficiency may come at the expense of increased market power the full determinants of home country host country and world welfare are considered

conflict and distribution abstract we develop a behavioral model that links the level and pattern of social conflict to the societywide distribution of individual characteristics the model can be applied to groups that differ in characteristics such as wealth ethnicity religion and political ideology we settle questions of existence and uniqueness of conflict equilibrium conflict is seen to be closely connected with the bimodality of the underlying distribution of characteristics however in general the conflict distribution relationship is nonlinear and surprisingly complex our results on conflict patterns also throw light on the phenomena of extremism and moderation journal of economic literature classification numbers d63 d72 d74

size location and agglomeration of inward foreign direct investment fdi in the united states halvorsen t size location and agglomeration of inward foreign direct investment fdi in the united states regional studies since the late 1970s a range of economic development policies to attract foreign direct investments fdis have been tried out despite a policy reorientation from a large size bias to policies also favouring smaller investments little empirical work has been performed on the determinants of investment size this paper presents empirical evidence on how the size of fdis is determined by agglomeration and other state level factors the results indicate that fdi agglomeration and urbanization affect investment size and that taxes markets labour land and the concentration of scientific knowledge are important determinants in the size composition of fdi halvorsen t le montant la localisation et l agglomeration de l investissement direct etranger ide aux etats unis regional studies depuis la fin des annees 1970 on met en vigueur toute une serie de politiques de developpeme

the economics of foreign direct investment and trade with an application to the u s food processing industry this article investigates the determinants of foreign direct investment and its relationship to trade in the u s food industry a multinational corporation maximizes profits by choosing between production at home which is exported and production in a host country this introduces the possibility that foreign affiliate sales can substitute and or complement exports the empirical framework consists of a four equations system with foreign affiliate sales exports affiliate employment and fdi as endogenous variables the results confirm small substitution between foreign sales and exports and that the host country s protection policies affect the decision to invest abroad

linking conflict to inequality and polarization in this paper we study a behavioral model of conflict that provides a basis for choosing certain indices of dispersion as indicators for conflict we show that a suitable monotone transform of the equilibrium level of conflict can be proxied by a linear function of the gini coefficient the herfindahl hirschman fractionalization index and a specific measure of polarization due to esteban and ray jel classification d74 d31

investment climate and fdi in developing countries firm level evidence this paper uses firm level data across 77 developing countries to show that constraints related to investment climate hamper foreign direct investment fdi the main results show that physical infrastructure problems financing constraints and institutional problems discourage fdi these results are robust to an alternative definition of fdi introduction of additional explanatory variables and some breakdown analyses different sectors of activity and comparison between sub saharan africa and other developing countries the results also highlight that exporter foreign firms are more constrained in their activity by physical infrastructure hurdles and the lack of skilled workers compared to firms supplying the domestic market

action characteristics as predictors of competitive responses a central question in competitive dynamics is whether a competitive response can be predicted this study links various characteristics of actions with the total number and the time lag of competitors responses the hypothesized relationships were tested with a sample of competitive moves among u s airlines the results suggested that responses are influenced by the characteristics of the actions that evoked them specifically the total number of competitors affected by an action and the importance to these competitors of the markets under attack by the action increase the number of competitive responses strategic as opposed to tactical actions or actions which require substantial implementation efforts reduce the number and delay the timing of rivals counteractions finally contrary to prediction competitors who have a high stake in the markets under attack by a competitive move react slowly

direct foreign investment in the united states abstract cross section analysis of direct foreign investment in the united states provides some support for market structure and transaction cost explanations of dfi a time series country by country analysis suggests the importance of profitability differences the desire to avoid trade barriers and a shift in investment patterns related to world oil shocks

between group contests over group specific public goods with within group fragmentation we model a contest between two groups of equal sized populations over the division of a group specific public good each group is fragmented into subgroups each subgroup allocates effort between production and contestation perfect coordination is assumed within subgroups but subgroups cannot coordinate with one another all subgroups choose effort allocations simultaneously we find that the group that is more internally fragmented receives the smaller share of the public good aggregate rent seeking increases when the dominant subgroups within both communities have larger population shares any unilateral increase in fragmentation within a group reduces conflict and increases the total income of its opponent strikingly the fragmenting community itself may however increase its total income as well even though its share of the public good declines hence a smaller share of public good provisioning cannot be used to infer a negative income effect on the losing community

mode size and location of foreign direct investments and industry markups abstract several studies find that inward foreign direct investment fdi raises host industries competition and productivity using aggregate fdi measures the monetary flows or the change in the industries foreign production share yet fdi flows are composed of many individual heterogeneous investments reflecting this heterogeneity i ask how the average traits of the individual investments that constitute the fdi flow further affect the host while the results show that inward fdi does heighten competition for us manufacturing industries in 1987 1991 price cost markups fall even more when foreign investments locate further away from incumbent industry which is consistent with endogenous location choice

foreign direct investments environmental externalities and capital segmentation in a rural economy this paper examines the possible effects of external investment inflows on the development of local rural economies taking into account two recurrent features of many developing countries capital market segmentation and environmental externalities to investigate this issue we examine a model with two sectors the local sector and the external sector physical capital accumulation in the latter sector is driven by foreign direct investments while in the former sector it follows a solow type accumulation mechanism we assume that the production activity of the external sector damages the environment while the local sector relies on natural resources in this context we give the conditions under which capital inflows can promote diversification of host economy while improving welfare of local populations if these conditions are not satisfied external investments fuel a welfare reducing process for the local community and a self enforcing growth of the external sector at the expense of the local one

extremism in revolutionary movements abstract a revolutionary entrepreneur strategically chooses the revolutionary agenda to maximize the likelihood of revolution citizens have different preferences and can contribute varying degrees of support we show 1 extremists exert a disproportionate influence over the revolutionary agenda 2 depending on the structure of repression more severe repression can moderate or radicalize the revolutionary agenda specifically increases in the minimum punishment marginal cost of revolutionary effort at its minimum radicalize the revolutionary agenda this presents the elite with a tradeoff between extreme but unlikely revolutions and moderate but likely ones 3 competition between revolutionary entrepreneurs can radicalize the revolutionary agenda

the relation between price and marginal cost in u s industry an examination of data on output and labor input reveals that some u s industries have marginal cost well below price the conclusion rests on the finding that cyclical variations in labor input are small compared with variations in output in booms firms produce substantially more output and sell it for a price that exceeds the costs of the added inputs the paper documents the disparity between price and marginal cost where marginal cost is estimated from annual variations in cost it considers a variety of explanations of the findings that are consistent with competition but none is found to be completely plausible

rationalist explanations for war realist and other scholars commonly hold that rationally led states can and sometimes do fight when no peaceful bargains exist that both would prefer to war against this view i show that under very broad conditions there will exist negotiated settlements that genuinely rational states would mutually prefer to a risky and costly fight popular rationalist and realist explanations for war fail either to address or to explain adequately what would prevent leaders from locating a less costly bargain essentially just two mechanisms can resolve this puzzle on strictly rationalist terms the first turns on the fact that states have both private information about capabilities and resolve and the incentive to misrepresent it the second turns on the fact that in specific strategic contexts states may be unable credibly to commit to uphold a mutually preferable bargain historical examples suggest that both mechanisms are empirically plausible

collective action and the group size paradox according to the olson paradox larger groups may be less successful than smaller groups in furthering their interests we address the issue in a model with three distinctive features explicit intergroup interaction collective prizes with a varying mix of public and private characteristics and nonlinear lobbying costs the interplay of these features leads to new results when the cost of lobbying has the elasticity of a quadratic function or higher larger groups are more effective no matter how private the prize with smaller elasticities a threshold degree of publicness is enough to overturn the olson argument and this threshold tends to zero as the elasticity approaches the value for a quadratic function we also demonstrate that these results are true irrespective of whether we examine group sizes over the cross section in some given equilibrium or changes in the size of a given group over different equilibria

new ventures or acquisitions the choice of swedish multinational enterprises this study examines the factors influencing the multinational enterprises choice between the takeover of already existing firms and investments in new ventures as a means of entering a foreign market the results suggest that the degree of industrial diversification of the parent company and the host country s per capita income seems to have a positive influience on the propensity for takeovers this propensity appears to be negatively related to the rate of growth of industrial production in the industry entered further we found that the more recent the entry into a foreign market the greater the probability for choosing acquisition

cultural diversity and economic growth evidence from the us during the age of mass migration we exploit the large inflow of immigrants to the us during the 1870 1920 period to examine the effects that within county changes in the cultural composition of the us population had on output growth we construct measures of fractionalization and polarization to distinguish between the different effects of cultural diversity our main finding is that increases in cultural fractionalization significantly increased output while increases in cultural polarization significantly decreased output we address the issue of identifying the causal effects of cultural diversity by using the supply push component of immigrant inflows as an instrumental variable

volatility employment and the patterns of fdi in emerging markets abstract the purpose of this paper is to explore the implications of the deepening presence of multinationals in emerging markets on the cost of macroeconomic volatility there we find that macroeconomic volatility has a potentially large impact on employment and investment decisions of multinationals producing intermediate inputs in developing countries this is the case even for risk neutral multinationals as their profit function is non linear due to price and productivity effects for industries with costly capacity the multinationals would tend to invest in the more stable emerging market s higher volatility of productivity shocks in an emerging market producing the intermediate inputs reduces the multinationals expected profits high enough instability in such a market would induce the multinationals to diversify intermediate input production investing in several emerging markets this effect is stronger in lower margin industries we identify circumstances where this diversification is costly to emerging markets such a diversification increases the responsiveness of the multinationals employment in each country to productivity shocks channeling the average employment from the more to the less volatile location and reducing the multinationals total expected employment in emerging markets

greenfield vs acquisition the strategy of japanese investors in the united states multinational firms can enter a foreign market by taking over existing local firms acquisitions or by setting up new ventures greenfield investments surprisingly there has been limited empirical work on this topic this paper examines the determinants of this choice by looking at japanese entries into the united states by focusing on firms of one country entering a single market we are able to separate the impact of a firm s strategy from that of the characteristics of the target industry or country this paper tests simultaneously a number of competing hypotheses the results suggest that acquisitions are used by japanese investors with weak competitive advantages while investors with strong advantages find that greenfield investments are a more efficient way to transfer these advantages to the u s acquisitions are also chosen to enter industries with either very high or very low growth rates when entry is at a scale that is large relative to the parent and when entry is into a different industry the japanese investor s previous experience of the u s market its financial situation and its status as a follower in an oligopolistic industry have no statistically significant impact on the entry mode neither do u s stock market conditions

the real exchange rate and foreign direct investment in the united states relative wealth vs relative wage effects abstract there has been a significant correlation between u s inward foreign direct investment and the united states real exchange rate since the 1970s in this paper we examine the determinants of four measures of inward foreign direct investment to the united states from seven industrial countries over the period 1979 1991 we find strong evidence that relative wealth significantly affects u s inward foreign direct investment we find no evidence that relative wages have a significant impact on the determination of u s foreign direct investment

entry modes for direct investment determined by the composition of firm specific skills when undertaking direct investment in a foreign country a firm can choose between different modes of entry broadly speaking an investor may either acquire an existing firm or set up a new venture i e perform a greenfield investment the mainstream perspective on this choice stipulates that takeovers are less risky than greenfield investments but yield a lower expected rate of return cf caves 1982 consequently a firm would become more willing to perform greenfield investments as greater capabilities and international experience increase its ability to handle risks according to dubin 1976 and stopford 1976 firms with a large and geographically diversified portfolio of already established subsidiaries have a greater propensity to undertake greenfield investment the greater a firm s diversification in terms of industries and the faster its growth indicating less knowledge and experience per unit of activity the greater the propensity to use takeovers in the last decades however there has been a marked tendency towards more takeovers and less greenfield investments see un 1992 this is hardly consistent with the conventional view as the bulk of direct investment is established by a relatively small number of multinational corporations which continuously upgrade their experience and capabilities rather the riskiness as well as expected profitability of alternative modes of entry depend on the nature of skills and capabilities this analysis distinguishes between organizational and managerial skill on the one hand and skill which is related to specific technology on the other com

brownfield entry in emerging markets this paper focuses on the brown field entry mode as a special case of acquisition in which the resources transferred by the investor dominate over those provided by the acquired firm we see this mode as having particular relevance for entry strategies in emerging markets the choice of entry mode is analyzed on the basis of a framework utilizing both resource based and transaction cost theories the resource requirements have to be matched with resources available to the investor through an acquired firm and the decision has to account for the costs of acquiring and integrating the resources

implications of an economic theory of conflict hindu muslim violence in india we model intergroup conflict driven by economic changes within groups we show that if group incomes are low increasing group incomes raises violence against that group and lowers violence generated by it we then apply the model to data on hindu muslim violence in india our main result is that an increase in per capita muslim expenditures generates a large and significant increase in future religious conflict an increase in hindu expenditures has a negative or no effect these findings speak to the origins of hindu muslim violence in post independence india

real exchange rate risk expectations and the level of direct investment four models of direct investment are analyzed assuming various relationships between foreign and domestic production the direct effect of risk adjusted expected real foreign currency appreciation is to lower foreign capital cost thus stimulating direct investment however when costs of other inputs are also affected induced productivity changes or output price changes may offset the direct effect reducing direct investment pooled estimation results for u s annual bilateral direct investment flows to five industrialized countries show significant reductions associated with expected appreciation of real foreign currency and significant increases associated with risk these results are consistent with the model where in response to risk the multinational firm reduces exports to the foreign country but offsets this somewhat by increasing foreign capital input and production

uneven growth a framework for research in development economics the textbook paradigm of economy wide development rests on the premise of balanced growth that is on the presumption that all sectors will grow in unison over time as a country gets richer this view has served us reasonably well in some circumstances but is not particularly useful for accounts of modern under development in many developing countries economic growth has been fundamentally uneven software development the outsourcing of services sectoral technological change quick compositional shifts between agriculture and other sectors the rise of particular exports special economic zones and so on this paper will discuss both the sources of uneven growth and its implications with greater emphasis on the latter the paper will argue that much of the distributional issues or the reactions to globalization that we see in modern developing societies can be viewed as reactions to a growth process that is fundamentally uneven and is indeed perceived as such

repatriation taxes and outbound m as repatriation taxes reduce the competitiveness of multinational firms from tax credit countries when bidding for targets in low tax countries this comparative disadvantage with respect to bidders from exemption countries violates ownership neutrality which results in production inefficiencies due to second best ownership structures this paper empirically estimates the magnitude of these effects the abolishment of repatriation taxes in japan and in the u k in 2009 has increased the number of acquisitions abroad by japanese and british firms by 16 1 and 1 6 respectively a similar policy switch in the u s is simulated to increase the number of u s cross border acquisition by 11 0 the yearly gain in efficiency is estimated to be 108 9 million dollar due to the japanese reform and 3 9 million dollar due to the u k reform simulating such a reform for the u s results in a yearly efficiency gain of 537 0 million dollar

does the law of one price really hold for commodity prices in spite of the empirical failure of the law of one price it is usually assumed that commodity prices are perfectly arbitraged at least in the long run this paper argues that this assumption is counterfactual and that much of the empirical evidence provided to support it is flawed and affected by econometric shortcomings spurious regressions nonstationarity in the data inappropriate use of first differences an alternative methodology co integration by which a long run relationship between nonstationary series can be tested is proposed tests of nonstationarity and co integration for a group of commodities show quite uniformly that the law of one price as a long run relationship fails and that deviations from the pattern are permanent

portfolio selection and skewness evidence from international stock markets abstract this paper finds that the returns of the world s 14 major stock markets are not normally distributed and that the correlation matrix of these stock markets was stable during the january 1988 december 1993 time period polynomial goal programming in which investor preferences for skewness can be incorporated is utilized to determine the optimal portfolio consisting of the choices of 14 international stock indexes the empirical findings suggest that the incorporation of skewness into an investor s portfolio decision causes a major change in the construction of the optimal portfolio the evidence also indicate that investors trade expected return of the portfolio for skewness

do multinationals really prefer to enter culturally distant countries through greenfields rather than through acquisitions the role of parent experience and subsidiary autonomy prior research has argued that multinational enterprises mnes prefer to enter culturally distant countries through greenfields rather than through acquisitions since acquisitions in such countries are costlier to manage this argument contains two hidden assumptions 1 the additional costs of acquisitions in culturally distant countries are the same for all mnes and 2 such acquisitions have no benefits over their greenfield counterparts in this paper we relax these two assumptions by arguing that an mne s preference for greenfields in culturally distant countries depends on its international and host country experience and on the level of autonomy it plans to grant the focal subsidiary analyzing 171 wholly owned greenfield investments and full acquisitions made by dutch mnes in 35 countries we find that these mnes prefer to enter culturally distant countries through greenfields but that this preference is lower when they have little international experience or plan to grant the focal subsidiary considerable autonomy in marketing

the inefficient use of power costly conflict with complete information recent work across a wide range of issues in political economy as well as in american comparative and international politics tries to explain the inefficient use of power revolutions civil wars high levels of public debt international conflict and costly policy insulation in terms of commitment problems this paper shows that a common mechanism is at work in a number of these diverse studies this common mechanism provides a more general formulation of a type of commitment problem that can arise in many different substantive settings the present analysis then formalizes this mechanism as an inefficiency condition that ensures that all of the equilibria of a stochastic game are inefficient this condition has a natural substantive interpretation large rapid changes in the actors relative power measured in terms of their minmax payoffs may cause inefficiency

culture ethnicity and diversity we investigate the empirical relationship between ethnicity and culture defined as a vector of traits reflecting norms attitudes and preferences using surveys of individual values in 76 countries we find that ethnic identity is a significant predictor of cultural values yet that within group variation in culture trumps between group variation thus in contrast to a commonly held view ethnic and cultural diversity are unrelated we explore the correlates of cultural diversity and of the overlap between culture and ethnicity finding that the level of economic development is positively associated with cultural diversity and negatively associated with the overlap between culture and ethnicity finally although only a small portion of a country s overall cultural heterogeneity occurs between groups this does not imply that cultural differences between groups are irrelevant indeed we find that civil conflict becomes more likely when there is greater overlap between ethnicity and culture

the timing and probability of fdi an application to us multinational enterprises an option pricing model is employed to analyse the timing of fdi assuming that the firm s profits are determined by the attractiveness of both the home and foreign countries and that attractiveness follows a brownian motion an optimal trigger value of fdi is derived the model shows that contrary to the npv rule fdi entry should be delayed the greater the uncertainty of attractiveness in both locations another important result is that mnes do not regard fdi as a risk diversification tool the results of the model were then tested empirically with us fdi data using labour costs as a proxy for the reciprocal of attractiveness the results support the findings of the analytical model