emerging biofuels outlook of effects on u s grain oilseed and livestock markets projections of u s ethanol production and its impacts on planted acreage crop prices livestock production and prices trade and retail food costs are presented under the assumption that current tax credits and trade policies are maintained the projections were made using a multi product multi country deterministic partial equilibrium model the impacts of higher oil prices a drought combined with an ethanol mandate and removal of land from the conservation reserve program crp relative to baseline projections are also presented the results indicate that expanded u s ethanol production will cause long run crop prices to increase in response to higher feed costs livestock farmgate prices will increase enough to cover the feed cost increases retail meat egg and dairy prices will also increase if oil prices are permanently 10 per barrel higher than assumed in the baseline projections u s ethanol will expand significantly the magnitude of the expansion will depend on the future makeup of the u s automobile fleet if sufficient demand for e 85 from flex fuel vehicles is available corn based ethanol production is projected to increase to over 30 billion gallons per year with the higher oil prices the direct effect of higher feed costs is that u s food prices would increase by a minimum of 1 1 over baseline levels results of a model of a 1988 type drought combined with a large mandate for continued ethanol production show sharply higher crop prices a drop in livestock production and higher food prices corn exports would drop significantly and feed costs would rise wheat feed use would rise sharply taking additional land out of the crp would lower crop prices in the short run but because long run corn prices are determined by ethanol prices and not by corn acreage the long run impacts on commodity prices and food prices of a smaller crp are modest cellulosic ethanol from switchgrass and biodiesel from soybeans do not become economically viable in the corn belt under any of the scenarios this is so because high energy costs that increase the prices of biodiesel and switchgrass ethanol also increase the price of corn based ethanol so long as producers can choose between soybeans for biodiesel switchgrass for ethanol and corn for ethanol they will choose to grow corn cellulosic ethanol from corn stover does not enter into any scenario because of the high cost of collecting and transporting corn stover over the large distances required to supply a commercial sized ethanol facility

the economics of a blend mandate for biofuels a biofuel blend mandate may increase or decrease consumer fuel prices with endogenous oil prices depending on relative supply elasticities biofuel tax credits always reduce fuel prices tax credits result in lower fuel prices than under a mandate for the same level of biofuel production if tax credits are implemented alongside mandates then tax credits subsidize fuel consumption instead of biofuels this contradicts energy policy goals by increasing oil dependency co 2 emissions and traffic congestion while providing little benefit to either corn or ethanol producers these social costs will be substantial with tax credits costing taxpayers 28 7 billion annually by 2022 copyright 2008 oxford university press

who pays and who gains from fuel policies in brazil abstract brazil has pursued a mix of policy interventions in the fuel sector to achieve multiple objectives of economic and social development promoting biofuels and reducing dependence on oil we develop an economic framework to provide insight on the fuel policy choices in brazil and to analyze the trade offs they have engendered in the fuel and sugar sectors we also examine their distributional impacts on producers and consumers in the sugar oil and biofuel sectors and on government revenues additionally we undertake a normative analysis for the purpose of comparing the welfare and environmental impacts of existing policies with those justified by the goal of maximizing social welfare and addressing market failure the ex post analysis of the outcomes for different stakeholders in the fuel and sugar sectors provides insights on the likely political economic factors guiding policy choices we find that the status quo policies are likely to have been motivated by the objectives of increasing oil exports raising government revenue and promoting rural development through the sugarcane sector and have had a significant adverse effect on fuel and sugar consumers aggregate social welfare and greenhouse gas emissions in brazil

an analysis of technological change factor substitution and economies of scale in manufacturing industries in india the biases of technological change factor substitution and economies of scale in four major manufacturing industries viz cement electricity and gas cotton textiles and iron and steel in india are examined the translog cost functions are estimated using annual time series data covering the period 1960 61 to 1982 83 the study reveals that technical change has been biased towards the use of labour and materials and against the use of capital and energy in electricity and gas industries in cotton textiles the technological change has shown the opposity biases significant economies of sclae exist in the production of electricity and gas enough evidence of substitution possibilities among factors of production in all the four industries was also found

exchange rates and unfair trade an examination of the changing country pattern of dumping and subsidy complaints by u s companies over time suggests that exchange rate fluctuations are a significant factor in determining case filings especially against japanese companies the inverse relationship observed between filings and the real external value of the u s dollar is consistent both with the traditional or technical interpretation of dumping and subsidy cases and with the view that they are promoted by rent seeking activities of lawyers and economists representing petitioners while this result says nothing about the merits of any particular case it cautions that the prevalence of unfair trade is not exogenous with respect to broader macroeconomic considerations copyright 1989 by mit press

financial intermediation and endogenous growth an endogenous growth model with multiple assets is developed agents who face random future liquidity needs accumulate capital and a liquid but unproductive asset the effects of introducing financial intermediation into this environment are considered conditions are provided under which the introduction of intermediaries shifts the composition of savings toward capital causing intermediation to be growth promoting in addition intermediaries generally reduce socially unnecessary capital liquidation again tending to promote growth

returns to scale in a highly regulated economy evidence from indian firms abstract this paper examines returns to scale for a panel of indian manufacturing firms from 1976 1985 a period in which government regulations restricted firms expansion observers have argued that these regulations led to unexploited scale economies in indian firms and our estimates lend limited support to this view although a large number of firms produce below the minimum efficient scale average returns to scale for the various industries are not significantly different from one our estimates suggest that recent deregulation will not generate significant gains in scale efficiency unless expansion is heavily biased towards growth in the smaller firms

competition for land in the global bioeconomy the global land use implications of biofuel expansion have received considerable attention in the literature over the past decade model based estimates of the emissions from cropland expansion have been used to assess the environmental impacts of biofuel policies and integrated assessment models have estimated the potential for biofuels to contribute to greenhouse gas ghg abatement over the coming century all of these studies feature explicitly or implicitly competition between biofuel feed stocks and other land uses however the economic mechanisms governing this competition as well as the contribution of biofuels to global land use change have not received the close scrutiny that they deserve the purpose of this article is to offer a deeper look at these factors we begin with a comparative static analysis which assesses the impact of exogenously specified forecasts of biofuel expansion over the period 2006 2035 global land use change is decomposed according to the three key margins of economic response extensive supply intensive supply and demand under the international energy agency s new policies scenario biofuels account for nearly one fifth of global land use change over the 2006 2035 period the article also offers a comparative dynamic analysis which determines the optimal path for first and second generation biofuels over the course of the entire 21st century in the absence of ghg regulation the welfare maximizing path for global land use in the face of 3 annual growth in oil prices allocates 225 mha to biofuel feed stocks by 2100 with the associated biofuels accounting for about 30 of global liquid fuel consumption this area expansion is somewhat diminished by expected climate change impacts on agriculture while it is significantly increased by an aggressive ghg emissions target and by advances in conversion efficiency of second generation biofuels jel classifications q11 q15 q24 q42 q54

public attitudes toward political and technological options for biofuels abstract this paper explores detailed public attitudes regarding the expanding range of biofuels technologies and policy options subjects from 34 in depth focus groups in central indiana were fairly knowledgeable about biofuels technologies but uninformed about biofuels policies despite being from a state where biofuels are a salient political issue a narrow majority was supportive of biofuels in general but expressed greater enthusiasm about second generation biofuels subject beliefs about biofuels economic and environmental impacts were most important in shaping these opinions rather than concerns about energy independence or other issues in terms of policy options subjects were most supportive of an alternative fuels standard and least supportive of a fixed subsidy and a cap and trade policy in contrast to arguments about technologies participants primarily framed their attitudes toward policies in terms of fairness although discussion did not substantially change aggregate preferences for most policies it did increase support significantly for at least one policy proposal a variable subsidy for ethanol it is particularly noteworthy that subjects generally did not support the most common biofuel technology corn based ethanol or the most prominent biofuels policy option the fixed subsidy despite residing in a state hosting a strong corn industry and staunch political advocates for both positions

exchange rates and industry demands for trade protection the recent confrontation between china and the united states over currency policy illustrates a broader phenomenon exchange rate misalignments tend to spill over into trade policy although previous studies have shown that aggregate protectionist activity is positively related to the level of the real effective exchange rate we explore this relationship at the industry level several industry specific characteristics determine the protectionist response to exchange rate changes including the degree of exchange rate pass through the level of import penetration and the share of imported intermediate inputs in total industry inputs we find that the marginal effect of currency appreciation on the number of industry level antidumping petitions is positive and significant only for industries with high pass through therefore exchange rates appear to induce demands for trade barriers only in industries where competitiveness is directly harmed by currency appreciation

implications of biofuels mandates for the global livestock industry a computable general equilibrium analysis the rapid growth of biofuels production particularly in the united states the eu and brazil has had important implications for the global livestock industry both by raising the cost of feed grains and oilseeds and by forcing onto the market a large supply of biofuel by products most of which end up in livestock feed rations this article investigates the impact of an expanding biofuels industry on the mix and location of global livestock production surprisingly we find that growth in the u s and eu biofuels industries results in larger absolute reductions in livestock production overseas than in those regions due to the international transmission of grains prices which is offset locally by the lower cost of by products we also find that nonruminant production is cut more than ruminant livestock because it is less able to use biofuel by products in its feed rations implementing biofuel mandates increases cropland area a large portion of which is estimated to come from reduced grazing lands the biofuel producing regions are expected to reduce their coarse grains exports and increase imports of oilseeds and vegetable oils while they increase their exports of processed feed materials in sum biofuel mandates have important consequences for livestock as well as crops with net effects influenced by the important role of by products in substituting for feedstuffs

welfare impacts of alternative biofuel and energy policies an open economy equilibrium model is derived to investigate the effects of energy policy on the u s economy with emphasis on corn based ethanol a second best policy of a fuel tax and ethanol subsidy is found to approximate fairly closely the welfare gains associated with the first best policy of an optimal carbon tax and tariffs on traded goods the largest economic gains to the u s economy from these energy policies arise from their impact on u s terms of trade particularly in the oil market conditional on the current fuel tax an optimal ethanol mandate is superior to an optimal ethanol subsidy copyright 2011 oxford university press

impacts of us biodiesel mandates on world vegetable oil markets abstract in this paper we seek to understand the impact of expanded use of soybean oil biodiesel to address biofuel mandates on global vegetable oil markets and in particular on the demand for palm oil an open economy equilibrium model is derived to investigate the market effects of biodiesel expansion on related energy and vegetable oil markets the model is calibrated to represent the recent benchmark data in calendar year 2014 the simulation estimates suggest that the expanded use of soy oil for biodiesel in the us will have considerable impacts on world vegetable oil markets the majority of the vegetable oil replacement is likely to occur through substitution of palm oil under a wide range of plausible elasticity values on the demand for vegetable oil and the demand substitution between soy oils and palm oils

exploring the drivers side of the blend wall u s consumer preferences for ethanol blend fuels abstract analysis of stated preferences from over 2300 u s respondents shows that general attitudes nationwide favor the use of ethanol as a motor fuel but a sizeable segment 20 indicated strong unwillingness to buy ethanol blend fuels results from a discrete choice experiment analyzed using mixed logit regressions show that all else constant price per gallon and miles per gallon dominated preferences for fuel attributes but ethanol content made the average consumer more likely to choose a blend fuel findings provide strong evidence of heterogeneity in preferences driven by attitudes but also affected by age and income at a point of price per mile equivalence for ethanol and gasoline in a market where gasoline e20 and e85 were available with no regulatory supply or technological constraints e85 would dominate market share in this case ethanol would account for 56 of volume of motor fuels consumed our results show a high level of consumer substitutability of gasoline with ethanol and willingness to choose high ethanol blend fuels which could help expand ethanol use beyond the current regulatory and technological limits of the blend wall

the trade effects of us anti dumping actions against china post wto entry since china s entry into the wto us anti dumping ad actions against china have increased particularly with respect to multiple petitions distinguishing between us single and multiple petitions we examine the trade effects of us ad actions against china based on an unbalanced panel of quarterly trade data the results show that a us single petition investigation greatly restrains us imports of the filed products from china but also causes more significant import diversion from non named countries in the short run a preliminary ad duty imposed on china via a us multiple petition not only restrains us imports of the filed products from china but also prevents trade diversion from non named countries in the long run a final ad duty on china resulting from a us multiple petition creates a larger destructive effect on china and causes us import diversion from non named countries thus a final ad duty imposed on china following a us multiple petition not only harms china s exports but also fails to help the us achieve import substitution furthermore we have been able to reveal the negative trade effect of a preliminary ad duty even in cases where the ultimate decision is not to impose a final duty

the economic effects of the eu biofuel target in this paper we use the cge model dart to assess the economic impacts and optimality of different aspects of the eu climate package a special focus is placed on the 10 biofuel target in the eu in particular we analyze the development in the biofuel sectors the effects on agricultural production and prices and finally overall welfare implications one of the main findings is that the eu emission targets alone lead to only minor increases in biofuel production additional subsidies are necessary to reach the 10 biofuel target this in turn increases european agricultural prices by up to 7 compared to a cost effective scenario in which the eu 20 emission reduction target is reached additional welfare losses occur due to separated carbon markets and the renewable quotas the biofuel target has relatively small negative or even positive welfare effects in some scenarios

macroeconomic factors and antidumping filings evidence from four countries abstract this paper examines the relationship between antidumping filings and macroeconomic factors real exchange rate fluctuations affect the two criteria for dumping in opposite ways making the overall effect on filings ambiguous in theory examining the filing patterns of the four major users of ad law during the 1980 98 period we find that real exchange rates and domestic real gdp growth both have statistically significant impacts on filings bilateral filing data indicate that a one standard deviation real appreciation of the domestic currency increases filings by 33 we also find one standard deviation fall in domestic real gdp increases filings by 23

geography matters international trade patterns and the indirect land use effects of biofuels this article investigates the relationship between international trade patterns and the global distribution of coarse grain production responses to market developments in the united states our null hypothesis is that world markets are fully integrated rendering the geographic persistence of bilateral trade flows irrelevant in the global production response to a change in us prices the alternative hypothesis allows price transmission to vary along with the intensity of competition among countries in specific markets using data from 1975 to 2002 we reject the null hypothesis our work has direct implications for the analysis of the global land use impacts of biofuel mandates

non equivalent pass through of anti dumping duties countervailing duties and import tariffs we directly compare the short run pass through of tariffs anti dumping ad duties and countervailing cv duties into us import prices consistent with the theoretical predictions we find clear pattern of non equivalence in import price reaction to the three duty types with the most notable difference detected between ad duties and tariffs according to our estimates a tariff rate would have to be approximately two times higher than an ad duty rate in order to have the same effect on the delivered import price

import protection business cycles and exchange rates evidence from the great recession this research estimates the impact of macroeconomic fluctuations on import protection policies over 1988 q1 2010 q4 for five industrialized economies the united states european union australia canada and south korea there is evidence of a strong countercyclical trade policy response in the pre great recession period of 1988 q1 2008 q3 during which increases in domestic unemployment rates real appreciations in bilateral exchange rates and declines in the gdp growth rates of bilateral trading partners led to substantial increases in new temporary trade barriers it then applies this pre great recession empirical model to realized macroeconomic data from 2008 q4 2010 q4 and find it predicts a surge of new import protection during the great recession e g for the us and eu the model predicts new trade barriers would cover an additional 15 percentage points of nonoil imports well above the baseline level of 2 3 percent of import coverage immediately preceding the crisis finally the research examines why the realized trade policy response differed from model predictions while exchange rate movements played an important role in limiting new import protection during the great recession there is also evidence of one particularly important change in trade policy responsiveness i e in this period governments refrained from imposing new temporary trade barriers against foreign trading partners experiencing their own weak or negative economic growth

linking soy oil demand from the us renewable fuel standard to palm oil expansion through an analysis on vegetable oil price elasticities abstract the united states us renewable fuel standard and california s low carbon fuel standard support the use of soy biodiesel and renewable diesel in the transport fuel supply for climate mitigation however linkages between the markets for soy oil and palm oil which is associated with very high land use change emissions could negatively affect the climate performance of soy based biofuels this study estimates the own and cross price elasticities for the supply of soy and palm oils in the us using country level data from 1992 to 2016 under rational expectations through a seemingly unrelated regressions system of equations we find a positive cross price elasticity of palm oil import with respect to soy oil price and a positive reaction of supply of soy oil to increase in prices of palm oil these results suggest that us biofuel policies may underestimate substitution between soy and palm oils and thus overestimate the climate benefits from soy based biofuel

has the byrd amendment affected us imports the continued dumping and subsidy offset act cdsoa also known as the byrd amendment allows the u s government to distribute revenues from antidumping duties to domestic firms alleging harm prior to the amendment these revenues were not distributed to firms in this article we formally test the hypothesis that the byrd amendment effectively provides double protection to u s firms to the extent that it further restricts u s imports as argued by the e u and eleven other u s trading partners using a rich panel of 362 u s manufacturing industries for the period 1998 to 2003 we find that whether or not the byrd amendment restricted u s imports depends crucially on the level of competitiveness in the import competing industry specifically we find that the byrd amendment served to restrict imports only in industries where competition is relatively weak while the amendment is associated with an increase in imports in more competitive industries

second best biofuel policies and the welfare effects of quantity mandates and subsidies abstract the quest for biorenewable energy sources is held to justify a number of government interventions including support policies for biofuels such as those responsible for the recent rapid growth of us ethanol production this article provides an analytical assessment of such policies we construct a general equilibrium open economy model that captures the rationale typically invoked to justify government intervention in this setting to alleviate the environmental impact of energy consumption and to decrease us energy dependence on foreign sources the model is used to study both the positive and normative implications of alternative policy instruments including the subsidies and mandates specified by the 2007 energy independence and security act from a positive perspective we find that biofuels mandates are equivalent to a combination of fuel taxes and biofuels subsidies that are revenue neutral from a welfare perspective we show that biofuels mandates dominate biofuels subsidies and that combining fuel taxes with mandates would be welfare enhancing

the political economy of administered protection trade restrictions are hardly ever voted directly by congress though the threat of direct congressional action is frequently present pressure for protection is usually applied through the major instruments for the administrative regulation of imports the antidumping and countervailing duty procedures and the escape clause mechanism in this paper we will examine these instruments for the administrative regulation of imports the form of the paper is not novel a theory of how these mechanisms work is developed then operational implications of this theory are deduced and tested over the record of countervailing duty antidumping and escape clause cases decided from 1975 through 1979 this is the period over which the trade act of 1974 was in force because the nature of these mechanisms is relatively unfamiliar a relatively large amount of institutional information is provided

how the european union s and the united states anti dumping duties affect taiwan s pv industry a policy simulation abstract to address continuous increases in global energy demand countries around the world are developing coping plans that promote the development of renewable energy industries a major focus of these nations efforts is the photovoltaic pv industry since 2014 the european union eu and the united states have imposed anti dumping duties on pv industries in china and taiwan because the development of the pv industry is affected by relevant government policies taiwan is ranked second in the world in pv production and these duties will undoubtedly affect the future development of taiwan s pv industry thus pv manufacturers and the taiwanese government are extremely concerned about the impact of the anti dumping duties imposed on taiwan s pv industry in fact the development structure of the pv industry is complex and dynamic in this study by assessing industry characteristics the extant literature and responses from interviews with experts system dynamics sd is used to identify three key loops and explore the structure of the development of taiwan s pv industry finally trends in production capacity and financial conditions imposed by anti dumping duties on taiwan s pv industry are simulated to address the impact that different anti dumping duty rates could produce repeated simulations are conducted to determine the critical rate at which this industry may disappear in addition relevant topics are discussed and viable policy recommendations are proposed

an estimate of the textile and clothing sector production function for selected countries in the early 1970s abstract this paper describes the results of the estimation of sector wide production functions for textiles and clothing for nine industrialized and five industrializing countries in the early 1970s special attention is paid to relative differences between countries especially with respect to the changing role and productivity of labor although somewhat primitive in nature the results suggest that this is a fruitful way to gain a better understanding of the changing international division of labor at the sector level

the indirect land use impacts of united states biofuel policies the importance of acreage yield and bilateral trade responses recent work has highlighted agricultural land conversion as a significant debit in the greenhouse gas accounting of ethanol as an alternative fuel this work has at the same time sparked considerable debate on the role of crop yield growth as a means of avoiding rapid land conversion we examine the agricultural land use impacts of mandate driven ethanol demand increases in the united states in a formal economic equilibrium framework which allows us to examine the importance of yield price relationships we find that the standard assumption of trend yield growth is likely restrictive for analysis of equilibrium response to significant demand increases for fuel feedstocks furthermore we identify both the acreage response and bilateral trade specification of a multi country model as important sources of variability in terms of parametric uncertainty in predicting global land use change from the biofuels boom

dynamic interfeed substitution implications for incorporating ethanol byproducts into feedlot rations abstractthis study examines interfeed substitution with a focus on the relationship between distiller s dried grain with solubles ddgs and traditional feed grains the dynamic linear logit model is used for the empirical analysis of interfeed substitution the estimation results reveal that an increase in livestock and poultry outputs reduces the relative shares of corn and soybean meal to ddgs the estimated adjustment rate indicates that the demand for feed grains is responsive in the short run with about 37 of the long run response this study also finds that the demand for corn and soybean meal remains inelastic even in the long run showing the possibilities that livestock and poultry producers face high feed costs in response to an increase in the prices of corn and soybean meal the pressures on feed costs can be alleviated by the substitutable relationship between ddgs and corn but the substitution of ddgs for corn has a potential to provide livestock and poultry with different nutritional con

forecasting volatility in the biofuel feedstock markets in the presence of structural breaks a comparison of alternative distribution functions abstract the need for research on commodity volatility has grown considerably due to the important role and financialization of commodities in global asset markets this paper examines the volatility forecasting performance of a wide variety of garch based models in the context of biofuel feedstock markets in the presence of structural breaks our sample is also extended to several non renewable energy commodities to evaluate comparatively the volatility forecasting performance across various commodity markets the model specifications allow for different conditional distribution functions in the rolling window estimations a break detection algorithm finds significant evidence of structural breaks in the unconditional variance of all commodity returns under study the out of sample analysis which is based on an up to date model comparison testing procedure reveals that volatility models accommodating structural breaks in the data provide the best volatility forecasts for most cases regarding the relevance of distribution functions the skewed normal distribution dominates in the model confidence sets nevertheless the complex distribution functions do not always outperform simpler ones although true return distribution is asymmetric and heavy tailed

cumulation and itc decision making the sum of the parts is greater than the whole in 1984 congress amended the antidumping and countervailing duty laws man dating that the international trade commission itc cumulate imports across countries when determining injury we estimate that cumulation increases the probability of an affirmative injury determination by 20 to 30 percent and has changed the itc s decision from negative to affirmative for about one third of cumulated cases we also show that the protective effect of cumulation increases as the number of countries involved increases holding import market share constant that is cumulated imports have a super additive effect on itc decision making

how market efficiency and the theory of storage link corn and ethanol markets this article uses the theories of market efficiency and supply of storage to develop a conceptual link between the corn and ethanol markets and explores statistical evidence for the link we propose that a long run no profit condition is established in distant futures markets for ethanol corn and natural gas and then use the theory of storage to define an inter temporal equilibrium among these prices the relationship shows that under certain conditions future price expectations will influence nearby futures prices and that a short term relationship between input and output prices will exist we demonstrate validity of the theory using a structural price model and then by means of time series techniques

dynamic impacts of high oil prices on the bioethanol and feedstock markets this study investigates the impacts of high international oil prices on the bioethanol and corn markets in the us between 2007 and 2008 the prices of major grain crops had increased sharply reflecting the rise in international oil prices these dual price shocks had caused substantial harm to the global economy employing a structural vector auto regression model svar we analyze how increases in international oil prices could impact the prices of and demand for corn which is used as a major bioethanol feedstock in the us the results indicate that an increase in the oil price would increase bioethanol demand for corn and corn prices in the short run and that corn prices would stabilize in the long run as corn exports and feedstock demand for corn decline consequently policies supporting biofuels should encourage the use of bioethanol co products for feed and the development of marginal land to mitigate increases in the feedstock price

woody biomass processing potential economic impacts on rural regions abstract this paper estimates the economic and environmental impacts of introducing woody biomass processing wbp into a rural area in central appalachia wbp is among the most promising additions to energy generation portfolios for reducing import dependency while at the same time providing economic opportunity to stimulate regional economies especially in rural regions where economic development options are often limited we use an input output framework to assess wbp under three different pathways fast pyrolysis ethanol and coal biomass to liquids we find that the proposed wbp will increase regional output by 0 5 1 3 of gross regional product it will increase income by 17 32 to 51 31 million dollars each year and regional employment by 218 1 1127 8 jobs depending on the chosen pathway of these impacts the direct portions are 63 77 of the total impact depending on the chosen pathway the economic analysis and the results from the accompanying environmental assessment show that only the ethanol pathway has both economic and environmental benefits we conclude that because long run economic development strategies in rural regions are limited and negative impacts do not alter dramatically the regional environmental profile regional policymakers should include wbp among their development portfolio options

crop based biofuel production with acreage competition and uncertainty this paper examines the role of uncertain crude oil prices uncertain crop yields and competition for acreage on corn soybean and switchgrass prices under biofuel production mandates we find enforcement of the cellulosic mandate is costly in that it raises equilibrium prices of all three crops through competition for acreage however crude oil prices largely determine industry profitability even in the face of high crop prices further we find that uncertainty in crude oil prices and crop yields causes higher corn soybean and switchgrass prices compared to a baseline with no uncertainty

land allocation effects of the global ethanol surge predictions from the international fapri model we quantify the emergence of biofuel markets and its impact on world agriculture using the multimarket multicommodity international fapri model the model incorporates trade offs between biofuel feed and food production and consumption and international feedback effects of the emergence through world prices and trade we shock the model with exogenous changes in ethanol demand first in the united states then in brazil and other countries and compute shock multipliers for land allocation decisions for important crops and countries the brazilian ethanol expansion using sugarcane has fewer consequences on existing arable land allocation than the u s ethanol expansion does using corn feedstock

empirical evidence on surrogate country method for non market economy us anti dumping policy towards china whether the non market economy nme treatment on china can be maintained even after the expiry date under section 15 of china s world trade organization wto accession protocol is one of the most controversial issues in the wto in fact the key issue of the nme status in the anti dumping ad proceedings turns out to be how surrogate countries are selected in relation to dumping margin calculation this paper reviews the us practices concerning the application of the surrogate country method despite the general perception of capricious and random selection of surrogate countries the department of commerce has maintained a consistent pattern for applying the criteria this seemingly consistent practice however raised systematic problems but not at a significant scale in dumping margin calculation concerning chinese products this result sheds an interesting light on the current wto disputes concerning the china s nme status at least in terms of the us ad practices the result of the wto dispute settlement process may not have a significant impact on the china s exportation

some consequences of credit rationing in an endogenous growth model an endogenous growth model is developed where all investment is financed via credit extension there is also an adverse selection problem in loan markets so that in equilibrium credit rationing arises endogenously the result is that equilibrium levels of credit rationing and real growth rates are jointly determined in this context several changes in the environment can have unusual consequences for instance improvements in the technology for producing capital can reduce growth because of their adverse impacts on credit rationing for similar reasons various government investment subsidies can be growth reducing this phenomenon is often observed empirically

impacts of ethanol policy on corn prices a review and meta analysis of recent evidence abstract the literature on the impacts of biofuels on agricultural commodity prices is characterized by contradictory findings we review studies published between 2007 and 2014 that estimate the effects of u s corn ethanol policy on corn prices and find estimates ranging from nil to over 80 such divergent results make it difficult to assess the merits of alternative biofuel policies to bring more clarity to the issue and facilitate comparisons across studies we assemble a database of over 150 medium to long run estimates of the effect of corn ethanol production on corn prices from 29 published studies we first normalize corn price impacts by the change in corn ethanol volume to control for the large differences in ethanol quantities across scenarios we then conduct a meta analysis to identify the factors that drive the remaining variation in corn price impacts across studies in addition to ethanol volumes we find that modeling framework projection year inclusion of ethanol co products and biofuel production from other feedstocks explain much of the differences in price effects the results indicate that a one billion gallon expansion of the us corn ethanol mandate in the year 2015 would lead to a three to four percent increase in corn prices with smaller price changes projected in future years

effects of corn stover year to year supply variability and market structure on biomass utilization and cost the availability of corn stover can vary considerably from year to year in a region due to annual changes in yield and area planted with corn such variations interacting with biomass market structures can affect biomass cost and utilization rate this study first characterizes year to year variations in corn stover supply for the us in general and for selected major us corn producing counties in particular there have been 20 30 year to year variations in stover supply in the us since 1975 game theoretic analysis is then applied to examining corn stover utilization rate and production cost in three market structures the analysis reveals that a free market structure will take the form of oligopoly oligopsony where large stover supply variations will expose both biorefineries and farmers to significant price volatility price equilibrium will shift significantly from year to year of the three market structures analysed the derisked supply market structure will be most favorable to biorefineries and farmers under this structure biorefineries will maintain a stover supply region that is based on derisked lower than average yield density to buffer for the supply uncertainty associated with annual variations this market structure results in significantly less volatility in biomass cost while on average only 63 of collectable stover will be used for biofuel production our findings suggest that year to year variation in corn stover availability will increase feedstock cost and reduce its potential for biofuel production

the impacts of biofuel targets on land use change and food supply a global cge assessment this study analyzes the long term impacts of large scale expansion of biofuels on land use change food supply and prices and the overall economy in various countries or regions using a global computable general equilibrium model augmented by a land use module and detailed representation of biofuel sectors the study finds that an expansion of global biofuel production to meet currently articulated or even higher national targets in various countries for biofuel use would reduce gross domestic product at the global level however the gross domestic product impacts are mixed across countries or regions the expansion of biofuels would cause significant land re allocation with notable decreases in forest and pasture lands in a few countries the results also suggest that the expansion of biofuels would cause a reduction in food supply although the magnitude of the impact on food supply at the global level is not as large as perceived earlier it would be significant in developing countries like india and those in sub saharan africa agricultural commodities such as sugar corn and oil seeds which serve as the main biofuel feedstocks would experience significant increases in their prices in 2020 compared with the prices at baseline due to the expansion of biofuels to meet the existing targets

the rise of us anti dumping activity in historical perspective empirical studies of anti dumping activity focus almost exclusively on the period since 1980 this paper puts recent us anti dumping experience in historical context by studying the determinants of annual case filings over the past half century the conventional view that few anti dumping cases existed prior to 1980 is not correct although most did not result in the imposition of duties the increased number of cases in recent decades largely reflects petitions that target multiple source countries the number of imported products involved has actually fallen since the mid 1980s the annual number of anti dumping cases is influenced by the unemployment rate the exchange rate import penetration closely related to the decline in average tariffs and changes in the anti dumping law and its enforcement in the early 1980s

the effect of biodiesel policies on world biodiesel and oilseed prices a theoretical and empirical model is developed to analyze the effect of a biodiesel mandate a tax exemption tax credit and an exogenous diesel price shock on world soybean and canola markets the jointness in crushing oil and meal from the oilseed reduces the size of the link between biodiesel and oilseed prices a diesel price shock with a mandate results in a smaller change in oilseed prices compared with a tax exemption higher diesel prices increase biodiesel prices under a tax exemption but lower them with a blend mandate when both canola and soybeans are used to produce biodiesel an increase in the diesel price leads to higher canola prices but the effect on soybean prices is ambiguous and depends on relative elasticities of meal demand and canola supply because canola produces more oil than soybeans

tariff liberalisation and increased administrative protection is there a quid pro quo theoretical models and intuition suggest that the amount of non traditional protection such as anti dumping duties will increase as more traditional forms such as tariffs are lowered under multilateral trade agreements this paper is the first empirical study of the role of tariff liberalisation in the spread of anti dumping through both correlations and regression approaches we analyse the relationship between tariff concessions made during the uruguay round trade negotiations and the filing of anti dumping petitions with particular interest in whether multilateral trade reductions have spurred the recent growth in new users of anti dumping policies we find that at least for developing economies tariff reductions agreed to under the uruguay round not only increased the likelihood of a country using anti dumping protection but also the total number of anti dumping petitions filed by countries

economies of scale for various types of manufacturing production technologies in an underdeveloped economy manufacturing sector 2 all these studies suffer from at least three weaknesses first almost all of them have used either the cobbdouglas or the constant elasticity of substitution ces production functions which are highly restrictive second many have used time series analysis without proper attention to time lags and the problems of multicollinearity also they have neglected to separate fully the effects of technological changes on cost from those of the economies of scale third they have invariably assumed labor and capital to be the main factors of production raw materials inputs which are a considerable element of the total cost of production and could therefore cause significant changes in the estimated elasticities of substitution and consequently in the estimates of returns to scale have been ignored altogether 3 the purpose of this paper is to overcome all these weaknesses by using a flexible functional form and simultaneously to estimate returns to scale and elasticities of substitution specifically we use the transcendental logarithmic cost function introduced by christensen jorgenson and lau4 to estimate the measured characteristics of technology for india s manufacturing industries for purposes of comparison we also focus on various specifications of the production technology we describe all functions in terms of a translog specification and distinguish other technologies with appropriate parametric restrictions

ethanol mandates and drought insights from a stochastic equilibrium model of the u s corn market the outlook for u s corn markets is inextricably linked to what happens to the u s ethanol industry which depends in turn on the level of government subsidies and mandates we develop a stochastic partial equilibrium model to simulate outcomes for the corn market for the 2008 09 marketing year to gain insight into these linkages the model includes five stochastic variables that are major contributors to corn price volatility planted acreage corn yield export demand gasoline prices and capacity of the ethanol industry our results indicate that integration of gasoline and corn markets has increased corn price volatility and that the passage of the expanded ethanol mandates in the energy independence and security act eisa has had modest effects on corn prices model results indicate an expected average marketing year price of 4 97 per bushel and a price volatility of 17 5 without the 10 billion gallon eisa mandate but with maintenance of the 0 51 per gallon tax credit imposition of the mandate increases the expected price by 7 1 and price volatility by 12 1 the effects of the mandate are modest as ethanol production would average 9 5 billion gallons without the mandate because of high gasoline prices the mandate is binding with a probability of 37 8 which indicates that an additional tax or subsidy will be needed to ensure that the mandate is met high corn prices caused by drought can cause the mandate to bind fixing 2008 corn yields at extreme drought levels increases expected corn prices to 6 59 per bushel without a mandate and to 7 99 per bushel with the eisa mandate an average additional subsidy of 0 73 per gallon of ethanol would be needed to ensure that the mandate is met in this drought scenario elimination of the current blenders tax credit would result in the mandate not being met in all cases on average a subsidy of 0 41 per gallon would ensure that ethanol production is at least 10 billion gallons in the 2008 09 marketing year