welfare implications of the transition to high household debt abstract aggressive deregulation of the mortgage market in the early 1980s triggered innovations that greatly reduced indebted households required home equity and a borrowing surge followed this paper uses a calibrated general equilibrium model of lending from the wealthy to the middle class to evaluate the welfare effects of this reform quantitatively we find that the indirect effects of endogenous interest rate and other relative price changes dominate the direct effect of relaxing the constraint the borrowing household s welfare falls even though the reform directly relaxes a constraint on its trade the saving household s welfare rises substantially

feebates rebates and gas guzzler taxes a study of incentives for increased fuel economy abstract us fuel economy standards have not been changed significantly in 20 years feebates are a market based alternative in which vehicles with fuel consumption rates above a pivot point are charged fees while vehicles below receive rebates by choice of pivot points feebate systems can be made revenue neutral feebates have been analyzed before this study re examines feebates using recent data assesses how the undervaluing of fuel economy by consumers might affect their efficacy tests sensitivity to the cost of fuel economy technology and price elasticities of vehicle demand and adds assessments of gas guzzler taxes or rebates alone a feebate rate of 500 per 0 01 gallon per mile gpm produces a 16 percent increase in fuel economy while a 1000 per 0 01 gpm results in a 29 percent increase even if consumers count only the first 3 years of fuel savings unit sales decline by about 0 5 percent but sales revenues increase because the added value of fuel economy technologies outweighs the decrease in sales in all cases the vast majority of fuel economy increase is due to adoption of fuel economy technologies rather than shifts in sales

vehicle scrappage and gasoline policy abstract we estimate the sensitivity of scrap decisions to changes in used car values and show how this scrap elasticity produces emissions leakage under fuel efficiency standards a process known as the gruenspecht effect we first estimate the effect of gasoline prices on used vehicle values and scrappage of vehicles with different fuel economies we then estimate the scrap elasticity itself which we find to be 0 7 when applied in a model of fuel economy standards 13 16 percent of the expected fuel savings leak away through the used vehicle market this effect rivals or exceeds the importance of the often cited mileage rebound effect jel h23 l62 l78 q35 q38 q48 q58

an evolutionary and institutional view of the behavior of public and private companies this paper reports on an extensive study designed to explain the variations both within and among three public and three private electric utilities in their impact on environmental quality the more general purpose is to demonstrate the value of a disaggregated model of the behavior of an organization based on the intendedly rational but imperfect choices of its individual members the analysis focuses on what determines the opportunity sets objectives and beliefs of those members and on how the organization aggregates their choices into corporate patterns of action internal features of the organization such as how tasks and authority are divided information processed and individuals recruited and rewarded are thus potentially important explanatory variables provided as is often the case that external pressures and constraints are not perfectly coercive this conceptual framework would appear to be applicable to a wide variety of public private and nonprofit organizations while generating a number of the better known models of firm behavior as special cases it is designed both to provide a framework for constructing explanations of particular past events and to give rise to testable generalizations about the behavior of organizations particularly ones that might be useful for policy purposes this necessarily brief paper presents only the general arguments and results with illustrations from the case material since the case studies suggested much of the theoretical analysis they do not provide strictly independent support for the propositions to be presented for a full account see roberts 1975

e ztax tax salience and tax rates this paper examines whether the salience of a tax system affects equilibrium tax rates i analyze how tolls change after toll facilities adopt electronic toll collection etc drivers are substantially less aware of tolls paid electronically i estimate that in steady state tolls are 20 to 40 percent higher than they would have been without etc consistent with a salience based explanation for this toll increase i find that under etc driving becomes less elastic with respect to the toll and toll setting becomes less sensitive to the electoral calendar alternative explanations appear unlikely to be able to explain the findings

stationary equilibrium in a market for durable assets this paper presents a dynamic model of consumer trading on the primary secondary and scrap markets for a stochastically deteriorating durable good in a stationary economy with perfect information and no transaction costs we explicitly model the trading process by tracking each durable from its birth in the primary market through its sequence of owners in the secondary market until its death in the scrap market we prove that a stationary equilibrium exists characterize the distribution of consumer holdings of durables and show that equilibrium asset prices are shadow prices to a particular regenerative optimal stopping problem we show that each heterogeneous agent equilibrium is observationally equivalent to a homogeneous agent equilibrium we derive a differential equation for equilibrium rental rates and a functional equation which links rental rates to asset prices these equations show precisely how the structure of durable prices and rental rates embody the functional form and population distribution of preferences and the technological characteristics of durable goods this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

new hedonic technique for estimating attribute demand an application to the demand for automobile fuel efficiency a new hedonic procedure is applied to estimate the effects of gasoline price on the demand for automobile attributes and fuel efficiency direct application of a comparative statics analysis circumvents the problems of identification and severe multicollinearity affecting previous hedonic studies the results indicate that the effect of induced changes in automobile attributes in response to increases in the price of gasoline is to substantially increase fuel efficiency the estimated elasticities of fuel efficiency with respect to the price of gasoline imply that the long run own price elasticity of demand for gasoline is greater than unity 31 references

energy efficiency and financial literacy abstract financial literacy explains anomalies in a wide range of consumers financial decisions we extend the literature on financial literacy by examining its role in the purchase of energy consumer durables a setting purported to suffer from sub optimal levels of investment due to consumer mistakes we augment a standard choice experiment for purchasing a hot water system with data on financial literacy financial literacy is an economically important and statistically significant determinant of investment in energy efficiency this result is robust to incorporating individual discount rates and risk aversion as well as standard controls such as income and education indicating that financial literacy is not merely a proxy for standard demographic characteristics financial literacy also makes choices more consistent with standard consumer preferences and increases the probability that respondents select investments with the lowest lifetime discounted costs the results establish low financial literacy as a mechanism driving low investment in energy efficiency

rates of time preference and consumer valuations of automobile safety and fuel efficiency this article estimates hedonic price models for automobiles using a data set on almost 3 000 households from the u s department of energy residential transportation energy consumption survey the standard hedonic models are generalized to recognize the role of discounting of fuel efficiency and safety yielding an estimated rate of time preference ranging from 11 to 17 percent this range includes the prevailing rate of interest for car loans in 1988 and is consequently consistent with market rates purchasers exhibit an implicit value of life ranging from 2 6 to 3 7 million which is within the range found in the labor market as well as other market contexts the model also estimates a significant price effect for auto injury risks and fuel efficiency

increasing the influence of co 2 emissions information on car purchase in response to concerns related to climate change and an attempt to encourage more sustainable behavior individuals are often provided with information on greenhouse gas emissions ghgs of consumer items such as personal vehicles currently in the us information on vehicle efficiency is provided as grams of carbon dioxide co2 per mile previous research presenting co2 as a mass and testing willingness to pay through discrete choice experiment has found that such information can influence vehicle choice however other research has questioned whether how this information is presented might affect choice that research argues that co2 emission information generally lacks contextualization that allows for interpretation as well it argues that the type of contextualization may affect choices that research though did not test willingness to pay and the strength of its influence is not clear in addition research exists that argues that using pro social as opposed to financial contextualization might be more influential on people s choices thus the purpose of this paper is to build on these previous findings on how co2 emissions are presented to determine whether changing how that information impacts vehicle choice with a discrete choice experiment of vehicle choice analyzed using latent class modeling no previous study has so robustly studied the influence that different framings might have on vehicle purchase five different methods of presenting co2 information are tested in this experiment co2 emissions as grams per mile current method co2 emissions as pounds per year consistent imperial units co2 emissions as tons per year yearly contextualization an annual tax on co2 yearly financial contextualization and co2 as a percentage of the 2025 us epa reduction target of 26 from 2005 levels social goal contextualization results demonstrate that the current method results in lowest willingness to pay for co2 emission reductions while the social goal contextualization results in the highest

housing market heterogeneity in a monetary union this paper studies the implications of cross country housing market heterogeneity in a monetary union for both shock transmission and welfare i develop a two country new keynesian general equilibrium model with housing and collateral constraints to explore this issue the conventional wisdom is that welfare would be higher in a monetary union if mortgage markets were homogeneous this paper shows instead that welfare is higher only when homogenization does not result in higher aggregate volatility because of financial accelerator effects or does not redistribute too much wealth from borrowers to savers

fuel prices and new vehicle fuel economy comparing the united states and western europe abstract several recent papers have documented an effect of fuel prices on new vehicle fuel economy in the united states this paper estimates the effect of fuel prices on average new vehicle fuel economy for the eight largest european markets the analysis spans the years 2002 2007 and uses detailed vehicle registration and specification data to control for policies consumer preferences and other potentially confounding factors we find fuel prices to have a statistically significant effect on average new vehicle fuel economy in europe the effect estimated for europe is much smaller than comparable estimates for the united states

anticipation tax avoidance and the price elasticity of gasoline demand summary least squares estimates of the response of gasoline consumption to a change in the gasoline price are biased toward zero given the endogeneity of gasoline prices a seemingly natural solution to this problem is to instrument for gasoline prices using gasoline taxes but this approach tends to yield implausibly large price elasticities we demonstrate that anticipatory behavior provides an important explanation for this result gasoline buyers increase purchases before tax increases and delay purchases before tax decreases rendering the tax instrument endogenous including suitable leads and lags in the regression restores the validity of the iv estimator resulting in much lower elasticity estimates copyright 2016 john wiley sons ltd

impacts of fuel economy improvements on the distribution of income in the u s abstract we estimate the impacts of passenger car and light truck fuel economy improvements in the u s since 1975 on the real monetary incomes of u s households by income quintile over the period 1980 2014 we limit our analysis to the direct monetary impacts fuel savings minus increased vehicle costs and do not attempt a full welfare analysis we include all vehicle purchases new and used household fuel expenditures come from the u s consumer expenditures surveys ces costs of increased new passenger car and light truck fuel economy were obtained from four national research council nrc studies plus a literature review of earlier estimates the nrc cost functions provide a unique time series of technology supply functions constructed by balanced expert panels and comprised of specific technologies proven to increase fuel economy effects of fuel economy improvements on used vehicle prices are based on an analysis of the ces data retrospective analysis indicates that all income quintiles received net savings and that the effect on the distribution of income was progressive a prospective analysis of future fuel economy improvements produced similar results sensitivity analysis indicates that these findings are relatively robust

overcoming salience bias how real time feedback fosters resource conservation inattention and imperfect information bias behavior toward the salient and immediately visible this distortion creates costs for individuals the organizations in which they work and society at l

financial intermediation house prices and the welfare effects of the u s great recession abstract this paper quantifies the welfare costs of the great recession in the united states and their distribution between borrowing and saving households we use a calibrated dynamic general equilibrium model with shocks to aggregate income and to the financial intermediation sector the model matches the boom bust cycle in house prices the dynamics of household leverage and the increase in inequality of wealth observed in the u s after 2007 we find large welfare costs for financially constrained households the borrowers savers instead benefited from a redistribution of housing wealth due to the de leveraging of borrowers caused by the plunge in house prices this redistribution mechanism was exacerbated by the financial intermediation shock we also show that the welfare costs for borrowers would have been lower if aggregate leverage had remained at pre 2001 levels

distributional and efficiency impacts of increased us gasoline taxes we examine the impacts of increased us gasoline taxes in a model that links the markets for new used and scrapped vehicles and recognizes the consider able heterogeneity among households and cars household choice parameters derive from an estimation procedure that integrates individual choices for car ownership and miles traveled we find that each cent per gallon increase in the price of gasoline reduces the equilibrium gasoline consumption by about 0 2

consumers perceptions and misperceptions of energy costs this paper presents three initial stylized facts from the vehicle ownership and alternatives survey voas a nationally representative survey that elicits consumers beliefs about gasoline prices and the relative energy costs of autos with different fuel economy ratings first american consumers devote little attention to fuel costs when purchasing autos second consistent with a cognitive bias called mpg illusion consumers underestimate the fuel cost differences between low mpg vehicles and overestimate the differences between high mpg vehicles third americans mean and median expected future gas prices were above current prices and predictions of the futures market at the time of the survey although it is often argued that misperceived energy costs justify policies to encourage the sale of energy efficient durable goods these results show that misperceptions and expectations that differ from market information could either increase or decrease energy efficiency

searching for hidden costs a technology based approach to the energy efficiency gap in light duty vehicles abstract the benefit cost analysis of standards to reduce vehicle greenhouse gas emissions and improve fuel economy by the u s environmental protection agency epa and the department of transportation dot displays large net benefits from fuel savings for new vehicle buyers this finding points to an energy efficiency gap the energy saving technology provided in private markets appears not to include all the technologies that produce net private benefits the gap exists if the costs of energy saving technologies are lower than the present value of fuel reductions and hidden costs undesirable aspects of the new technologies do not exceed the net financial benefits this study examines the existence of hidden costs in energy saving technologies through a content analysis of auto reviews of model year 2014 vehicles results suggest that it is possible to use fuel saving technologies on vehicles without imposing hidden costs for each technology examined reviews with positive evaluations outnumbered those with negative evaluations evidence is scant of a robust relationship between vehicles use of energy saving technologies and negatively rated operational characteristics such as handling or acceleration results do not provide evidence for hidden costs as the explanation of the efficiency gap for vehicle fuel saving technologies

estimates of the sticky information phillips curve for the united states mankiw and reis 2002 have proposed a sticky information based phillips curve sipc to address some of the concerns with the sticky price based new keynesian phillips curve in this paper we present a methodology to empirically implement the sipc and estimate its key structural parameter the degree of information stickiness for the united states using this methodology we estimate average durations of information stickiness that range from three quarters on the low side to over seven quarters on the high side

automobile prices and quality did the gasoline price increases change consumer tastes in the u s a hedonic model of automobile prices that takes gasoline costs into account is developed and used to examine whether gasoline price increases especially those related to the 1973 and 1979 oil shocks changed consumer evaluations of the relative qualities of used cars in the u s during 1970 1981 we test the null hypothesis that the characteristics coefficients remained constant over time it is rejected if gasoline costs are excluded from the model but not if they are included alternative approaches are developed to show that the gasoline price increases alone can explain much of the observed changes in the coefficients

electric vehicles rising from the dead data needs for forecasting consumer response toward sustainable energy sources in personal transportation abstract since standard vehicles are powered by internal combustion mechanisms that rely on fossil fuels electric vehicles that are propelled by one or more electric engines have been proposed as an alternative to promote sustainable personal transportation in this paper we propose a general demand model for vehicle purchases at the individual level assuming that the necessary microdata is available we then list the ideal microdata that would be needed for estimating this general demand model for elaborating this list we take into account the particularities of low emission vehicles with emphasis in their cost reliability environmental benefits tradeoff as well as the potentiality for evaluation of welfare improving policies related to adoption of energy efficient technologies we discuss data sources and collection strategies for the different attributes of the model especially for those characteristics that are nonstandard such as symbolic values for instance we discuss the role of range anxiety as a barrier of adoption of electric vehicles and the implied relevance of including driving range to get consumers willingness to pay for better performing electric batteries

consumer myopia imperfect competition and the energy efficiency gap evidence from the uk refrigerator market abstract the empirical literature on the energy efficiency gap concentrates on demand inefficiencies in the energy using durables markets and finds evidence that consumers underestimate future energy costs when purchasing a new appliance we take a broader view and also consider the impact of imperfect competition using data on the uk refrigerator market 2002 2007 we find that the average energy consumption of appliances sold during this period was only 7 2 higher than what would have been observed under a scenario with a perfectly competitive market and non myopic consumers one reason for this small gap is that market power actually reduces energy use

gasoline prices fuel economy and the energy paradox abstract policymakers often assert that consumers undervalue future gasoline costs when they buy automobiles we test this by measuring whether relative prices of vehicles with different fuel economy ratings fully adjust to variation in gasoline prices vehicle prices move as if consumers are indifferent between 1 00 in discounted future gas cost and 0 76 in vehicle purchase price we show how corrections for endogenous market shares and utilization measurement error and different gasoline price forecasts affect the results we also provide unique evidence of sticky information vehicle markets respond to changes in gasoline prices with up to a six month delay

implications of rational inattention abstract a constraint that actions can depend on observations only through a communication channel with finite shannon capacity is shown to be able to play a role very similar to that of a signal extraction problem or an adjustment cost in standard control problems the resulting theory looks enough like familiar dynamic rational expectations theories to suggest that it might be useful and practical while the implications for policy are different enough to be interesting

what do we learn from the price of crude oil futures summary despite their widespread use as predictors of the spot price of oil oil futures prices tend to be less accurate in the mean squared prediction error sense than no change forecasts this result is driven by the variability of the futures price about the spot price as captured by the oil futures spread this variability can be explained by the marginal convenience yield of oil inventories using a two country multi period general equilibrium model of the spot and futures markets for crude oil we show that increased uncertainty about future oil supply shortfalls under plausible assumptions causes the spread to decline increased uncertainty also causes precautionary demand for oil to increase resulting in an immediate increase in the real spot price thus the negative of the oil futures spread may be viewed as an indicator of fluctuations in the price of crude oil driven by precautionary demand an empirical analysis of this indicator provides evidence of how shifts in the uncertainty about future oil supply shortfalls affect the real spot price of crude oil copyright 2010 john wiley sons ltd

sticky information and sticky prices abstract in the u s and europe prices change at least once a year yet nominal macro shocks seem to have real effects lasting well beyond a year sticky information models as posited by mankiw and reis 2002 sticky information versus sticky prices a proposal to replace the new keynesian phillips curve quarterly journal of economics 117 1295 1328 sims 2003 implications of rational inattention journal of monetary economics 50 3 665 690 and woodford 2003 princeton university press princeton nj can reconcile micro flexibility with macro rigidity we simulate a sticky information model in which price setters update information on macro shocks less frequently than information on micro shocks we then examine price changes in the micro data underlying the u s cpi empirical price changes react to old information just as sticky information models predict

making the implicit explicit a look inside the implicit discount rate implicit discount rates idrs are employed in energy models to capture household investment decisions yet the factors behind the idr and their respective implications for policy making usually remain blurred and fractional the proposed comprehensive framework distinguishes three broad categories of factors underlying the idr for household adoption of energy efficient technologies eets preferences notably over time risk loss debt and the environment predictable ir rational behavior bounded rationality rational inattention behavioral biases and external barriers to energy efficiency existing empirical findings suggest that the factors underlying the idrs that differ across household characteristics and technologies should be accounted for in energy models furthermore the framework allows for a fresh look at the interplay of idrs and policies we argue that a simple observation of high idrs or observing correlations between idrs and socio economic characteristics does not provide guidance for policy making since the underlying sources cannot be identified instead we propose that some of the factors underlying the idr notably external barriers can be changed through directed policy interventions whereas other factors notably preferences and predictable ir rational behavior are innate and can only be taken into account through reactive policy interventions

fiscal policy and co2 emissions of new passenger cars in the eu to what extent have national fiscal policies contributed to the decarbonisation of newly sold passenger cars we construct a simple model that generates predictions regarding the effect of fiscal policies on average hbox co 2 emissions of new cars and then test the model empirically our empirical strategy combines a diverse series of data first we use a large database of vehicle specific taxes in 15 eu countries over 2001 2010 to construct a measure for the vehicle registration and annual road tax levels and separately for the hbox co 2 sensitivity of these taxes we find that for many countries the fiscal policies have become more sensitive to hbox co 2 emissions of new cars we then use these constructed measures to estimate the effect of fiscal policies on the hbox co 2 emissions of the new car fleet the increased hbox co 2 sensitivity of registration taxes have reduced the hbox co 2 emission intensity of the average new car by 1 3 partly through an induced increase of the share of diesel fuelled cars by 6 5 percentage points higher fuel taxes lead to the purchase of more fuel efficient cars but higher diesel fuel taxes also decrease the share of more fuel efficient diesel cars higher annual road taxes have no or an adverse effect

sorting in the used car market after the volkswagen emission scandal the disclosure of the vw emission manipulation scandal caused a quasi experimental market shock in the observable quality of vw diesel vehicles we consider a classical model for adverse selection and sorting to derive an empirically testable hypothesis about the impact of observable quality on the supply of used cars we test the hypothesis with data collected from an online car selling platform which reflects about 50 of the german used car market the empirical approach is based on a conditional difference in differences method we find that the supply of used vw diesel vehicles increases after the vw emission scandal this finding is consistent with the predictions of the theoretical model furthermore we find the positive supply effects increase with the probability of manipulation

a large scale test of the effects of time discounting risk aversion loss aversion and present bias on household adoption of energy efficient technologies abstract this paper empirically and jointly analyses the relations between standard time discounting risk aversion loss aversion and present bias and household stated adoption of low to high stake energy efficiency technologies eets light emitting diodes leds energy efficient appliances and retrofit measures the analysis relies on a large representative sample drawn from eight european union countries preferences over time risk and losses were elicited and jointly estimated from participant choices in incentivized context free multiple price list experiments the findings from econometrically estimating eet adoption equations provide some support for the hypothesis that individuals who are more loss averse or more risk averse or who exhibit a lower time discount factor are less likely to have adopted eets yet some of the results significance levels and effect sizes appeared sensitive to the addition of covariates which may be an indication of bad controls finally omitting one or several of the parameters capturing preferences over time risk and losses when estimating the eet adoption equations did not appear to cause omitted variable bias

a sparsity based model of bounded rationality this article defines and analyzes a sparse max operator which is a less than fully attentive and rational version of the traditional max operator the agent builds as economists do a simplified model of the world which is sparse considering only the variables of first order importance his stylized model and his resulting choices both derive from constrained optimization still the sparse max remains tractable to compute moreover the induced outcomes reflect basic psychological forces governing limited attention the sparse max yields a behavioral version of basic chapters of the microeconomics textbook consumer demand and competitive equilibrium i obtain a behavioral version of marshallian and hicksian demand arrow debreu competitive equilibrium the slutsky matrix the edgeworth box roy s identity and so on the slutsky matrix is no longer symmetric nonsalient prices are associated with anomalously small demand elasticities because the consumer exhibits nominal illusion in the edgeworth box the offer curve is a two dimensional surface rather than a one dimensional curve as a result different aggregate price levels correspond to materially distinct competitive equilibria in a similar spirit to a phillips curve the arrow debreu welfare theorems typically do not hold this framework provides a way to assess which parts of basic microeconomics are robust and which are not to the assumption of perfect maximization jel codes d01 d03 d11 d51

gasoline prices and the used automobile market a rational expectations asset price approach this paper examines the impact of changes in gasoline price expectations on the market values of used automobiles an asset model of automobile valuation is used to relate year to year changes in market values to changes in the present discounted value of gasoline expenses econometric evidence from data covering the years 1972 through 1981 substantially confirms the hypothesis of the model that a gasoline price shock causes relative price changes across automobile types in proportion to the differences in their rates of fuel consumption

do consumers recognize the value of fuel economy evidence from used car prices and gasoline price fluctuations abstract debate about the appropriate design of energy policy hinges critically on whether consumers might undervalue energy efficiency due to myopia or some other manifestation of limited rationality we contribute to this debate by measuring consumers willingness to pay for fuel economy using a novel identification strategy and high quality microdata from wholesale used car auctions we leverage differences in future fuel costs across otherwise identical vehicles that have different current mileage and therefore different remaining lifetimes by seeing how price differences across high and low mileage vehicles of different fuel economies change in response to shocks to the price of gasoline we estimate the relationship between vehicle prices and future fuel costs our data suggest that used automobile prices move one for one with changes in present discounted future fuel costs which implies that consumers fully value fuel economy

output and attribute based carbon regulation under uncertainty abstract output based carbon regulations such as fuel economy standards and the rate based standards in the clean power plan create well known incentives to inefficiently increase output similar distortions are created by attribute based regulations this paper demonstrates that despite these distortions output and attribute based standards can always yield strictly greater expected welfare than flat emission standards given uncertainty in demand for output or attributes assuming locally constant marginal damages for fuel economy standards the welfare maximizing amount of attribute or mileage basing is likely small relative to current policy for the electricity sector however an intensity standard may yield greater expected welfare than a flat standard

the allocative cost of price ceilings in the u s residential market for natural gas a direct consequence of restricting the price of a good for which secondary markets do not exist is that in the presence of excess demand the good will not be allocated to the buyers who value it the most we demonstrate the empirical importance of this allocative cost for the u s residential market for natural gas which was subject to price ceilings during 1954 89 using a household level discrete continuous model of natural gas demand we estimate that the allocative cost in this market averaged 3 6 billion annually nearly tripling previous estimates of the net welfare loss to u s consumers

optimal taxation when people do not maximize well being abstract i derive the optimal nonlinear income tax when individuals do not necessarily maximize their own well being this generates a corrective argument for taxation optimal marginal taxes are higher lower if individuals work too much too little from a well being point of view i allow for multidimensional heterogeneity and derive the optimal tax schedule in terms of measurable sufficient statistics one of these statistics measures the degree to which individuals fail to optimize their labor supply i empirically estimate this by using british life satisfaction data as a measure of well being i find that low income workers tend to work too little and high income workers too much providing a motive for lower marginal tax rates at the bottom and higher marginal tax rates at the top of the income distribution

asymmetric information in residential rental markets implications for the energy efficiency gap abstract this paper explores whether energy cost information asymmetries exist between landlords and tenants by exploiting variation in which party pays for energy because tenants are always fully informed about their total housing costs in the landlord pay regime the effect of energy cost changes on tenant turnover rents and efficiency investment should differ between the two payment regimes under asymmetric information but not symmetric information using energy cost variation in the form of changes in relative heating fuel prices i find evidence that tenants are uninformed about energy costs this results in higher energy expenditures for tenants and implies that information campaigns or efficiency standards may improve market outcomes

resource partitioning and the organizational dynamics of fringe banking we examine the emergence and proliferation of payday lenders fringe businesses that provide small short term but high cost loans we link the organizational dynamics of these businesses to two trends in consumer lending in the united states the continuing consolidation of mainstream financial institutions and the expansion of such institutions in the provision of financial services regarded as similar to payday loans we explain the coexistence in mature industries of large scale organizations in the market center and smaller specialists in the periphery by testing and extending the organizational model of resource partitioning our focus is on two under examined aspects of the model the dynamic underlying the partitioning process and the conditions under which the market remains partitioned the empirical analysis covers payday lenders banks and credit unions operating in wisconsin between 1994 and 2008

the price of energy efficiency in the spanish housing market the housing sector is a substantial consumer of energy and therefore a focus for energy savings efforts the energy performance certificate epc is the main eu policy to improve the energy performance of buildings following the implementation of the epc directive into spanish law from june 2013 all properties offered for sale or rented out in spain are required to have an epc given that this is a recently introduced regulation unlike other european housing markets the spanish one lacks market data on energy efficiency ee labels and their impact on housing price in order to overcome this gap we determine the ee ratings of a sample of 1 507 homes across spain on the basis of information collected previously through household surveys this information allowed us to answer the question of whether or not and to what extent spanish housing markets capitalise the value of ee we apply the hedonic price technique and observe that more energy efficient dwellings meaning higher ee rating have a price premium between 5 4 and 9 8 compared to those with the same characteristics but lower ee level

optimal taxation with behavioral agents this paper develops a theory of optimal taxation with behavioral agents we use a general framework that encompasses a wide range of biases such as misperceptions and internalities we revisit the three pillars of optimal taxation ramsey linear commodity taxation to raise revenues and redistribute pigou linear commodity taxation to correct externalities and mirrlees nonlinear income taxation we show how the canonical optimal tax formulas are modified and lead to novel economic insights we also show how to incorporate nudges in the optimal taxation framework and jointly characterize optimal taxes and nudges

shrouded attributes consumer myopia and information suppression in competitive markets bayesian consumers infer that hidden add on prices e g the cost of ink for a printer are likely to be high prices if consumers are bayesian firms will not shroud information in equilibrium however shrouding may occur in an economy with some myopic or unaware consumers such shrouding creates an inefficiency which firms may have an incentive to eliminate by educating their competitors customers however if add ons have close substitutes a curse of debiasing arises and firms will not be able to profitably debias consumers by unshrouding add ons in equilibrium two kinds of exploitation coexist optimizing firms exploit myopic consumers through marketing schemes that shroud high priced add ons in turn sophisticated consumers exploit these marketing schemes it is not possible to profitably drive away the business of sophisticates it is also not possible to profitably lure either myopes or sophisticates to nonexploitative firms we show that informational shrouding flourishes even in highly competitive markets even in markets with costless advertising and even when the shrouding generates allocational inefficiencies

increasing carbon pricing in the eu evaluating the options abstract a streamlined model applied at the member state level is used to evaluate possibilities for greater reliance on carbon pricing to meet the european union s mitigation pledge for the paris agreement the economic welfare costs of currently envisioned policies including the emissions trading system ets requirements for energy efficiency vehicle emission rates and national targets for non ets emissions are estimated at 1 1 of eu gdp in 2030 or 167 per ton of carbon dioxide co2 reduced on net these policies lose a small amount of revenue 0 05 of eu gdp a series of reforms progressively extending emissions pricing across sectors and countries reduces costs by about 0 6 of 2030 eu gdp or 90 per ton of co2 reduced while increasing revenues by almost 1 of eu gdp higher emissions prices in the eu ets would create the largest welfare gain and no country is made worse off from this reform

gasoline price uncertainty and the design of fuel economy standards abstract what are the implications of gasoline price volatility for the design of fuel economy policies i show that this problem has a strong parallel to weitzman s 1974 classic model of using price or quantity controls to regulate an externality changes in fuel prices act as shocks to the marginal cost of complying with the standard assuming constant marginal damages from fuel consumption an application of weitzman 1974 implies that a fixed fuel economy standard reduces expected welfare relative to a price policy such as a feebate or equivalently a fuel economy standard that is indexed to the price of gasoline when the regulator is constrained to use a fixed standard i show that the usual approach to setting the standard equate expected marginal compliance cost to marginal damage is likely to be sub optimal because the standard may not bind if the realized gasoline price is sufficiently high instead the optimal fixed standard will be relatively relaxed and may be non binding even at the expected gasoline price finally i show that although an attribute based standard allows vehicle choices to flexibly respond to gasoline price shocks the resulting distortions imply that the optimal fuel economy standard is not attribute based

home equity mobility and macroeconomic fluctuations how does a fall in house prices affect real activity this paper presents a business cycle model in which a decline in house prices reduces geographical mobility creating distortions in the labor market this happens because homeowners face declines in their home equity levels after which it becomes more difficult to provide the down payment required for a new mortgage loan unemployed homeowners therefore turn down job offers that would require them to move the model explains joint cyclical patterns in housing and labor market aggregates as well as the puzzling breakdown of the u s beveridge curve that occurred during 2009

income and wealth heterogeneity in the macroeconomy how do movements in the distribution of income and wealth affect the macroeconomy we analyze this question using a calibrated version of the stochastic growth model with partially uninsurable idiosyncratic risk and movements in aggregate productivity our main finding is that in the stationary stochastic equilibrium the behavior of the macroeconomic aggregates can be almost perfectly described using only the mean of the wealth distribution this result is robust to substantial changes in both parameter values and model specification our benchmark model whose only difference from the representative agent framework is the existence of uninsurable idiosyncratic risk displays far less cross sectional dispersion and skewness in wealth than u s data however an extension that relies on a small amount of heterogeneity in thrift does succeed in replicating the key features of the wealth data furthermore this extension features aggregate time series that depart significantly from permanent income behavior

testing the sticky information phillips curve abstract i consider the empirical evidence for the sticky information model relative to the basic sticky price model conditional on historical measures of inflation forecasts the estimated structural parameters are inconsistent with an underlying sticky information model and the sticky information phillips curve is statistically dominated by the new keynesian phillips curve i find that the poor performance of the sticky information approach is driven by two key elements first the sticky information model underestimates inflation in the 1970s and overestimates inflation since the 1980s second predicted inflation from the sticky information model is excessively smooth

the effects of the corporate average fuel efficiency standards in the us this paper examines the effects of the corporate average fuel economy standards cafe on automobile sales prices and fuel consumption first a discrete choice model of automobile demand and a continuous model of vehicle utilization are estimated using micro data from the consumer expenditure survey for 1984 1990 next the demand side model is combined with a model of oligopoly and product differentiation on the supply side with these elements in place the effects of the cafe regulation are assessed through simulations and compared to the effects of alternative policy instruments such as an increase in gasoline tax

market driven automotive industry compliance with fuel economy and greenhouse gas standards analysis based on consumer choice this study explored factors that affect market driven compliance with both corporate average fuel economy cafe and greenhouse gas ghg standards together called the national program in the united states for phase i 2012 2016 and phase ii 2017 2025 we considered a consumer choice based simulation approach using the ma3t model to estimate the market acceptance of fuel efficiency fe technologies and alternative fuel technologies as reflected by new sales of light duty vehicle ldv because both full and extremely low fe valuations are common in the literature we use a moderate assumption of a 10 year perceived vehicle lifetime at a 7 annual discount rate in the baseline and include both extreme views 5 years and 15 years in the sensitivity analysis the study focuses on market driven compliance and therefore excludes manufacturers cross subsidization the model results suggest that the ldv industry is able to comply with both standards even without cross subsidization and with projected high technology cost mainly thanks to the multiple credit programs and technology advancements the compliance robustness while encouraging however is based on moderate market assumptions such as annual energy outlook 2016 reference oil price projection and moderate fe consumer valuation sensitivity analysis results reveal two significant risk factors for compliance low oil prices and consumers fe undervaluation

comment on welfare implications of the transition to high household debt by campbell and hercowitz the purpose of campbell and hercowitz 2009 is to evaluate quantitatively the macroeconomic effects of deregulation of the mortgage market in the early 1980s this deregulation made it easier for consumers to use houses as collateral for loans the paper focusses on two questions first can this deregulation help to explain the increase in real interest rates in the early 1980s second and more importantly what effect did this deregulation have on household welfare campbell and hercowitz do a good job of motivating their quantitative analysis citing facts about changes in household debt and mortgage refinancing in the u s during the past quarter century the percentage of mortgagees who had ever refinanced their homes for example increased from 10 in 1983 to 44 in 2001 and housing equity as a fraction of house value for newly purchased homes with a loan to value ratio of at least 50 decreased from 23 of 1983 to 16 in 2001 moreover household debt increased from 43 of u s gdp in 1982 to 62 in 2000 finally throughout this period homes and cars collateralized roughly 90 of household debt these are big numbers that underscore the need for a coherent quantitative analysis of the macroeconomic effects of deregulation in the mortgage market campbell and hercowitz do an excellent job of providing precisely such an analysis the main findings of the paper are twofold first the sudden loosening of collateral or more generally borrowing constraints increases interest rates and lowers wages during the transition to a new steady state second in a reasonably calibrated quantitative model deregulation hurts borrowers although they benefit directly from looser borrowing constraints the indirect general equilibrium effect of deregulation on prices more than offsets these benefits leading to a net welfare loss lenders on the other hand gain i will use the bulk of the rest of my discussion to illustrate these effects in a drastically simplified version of campbell and hercowitz s model by stripping away extraneous details this simplified version of their model suggests that the forces at work in campbell and hercowitz s model are robust to changes in the exact details of how housing housing debt and mortgage financing are modelled moreover even in this simple model there are opposing effects on household welfare emphasizing again the need for a quantitative analysis such as campbell and hercowitz s in order to measure their net effect

electricity prices and consumers long term technology choices evidence from heating investments abstract this paper studies consumers s sensitivity to energy costs at the moment of making a long term energy technology investment the analysis exploits local variation in regulated electricity distribution prices that are persistent over time and therefore a good measure of long term price expectations price impacts are estimated on extensive administrative registry data of private persons acting as home builders in finland during 2006 2011 the results show that electricity prices notably influence builders choices and that electricity tax increases have induced demand for technologies based on renewable energy the results on the comprehensive set of individual level characteristics reveal that technology choices vary systematically across households current dwelling status and the education level have the strongest influence on the choice probabilities price sensitivity is found to be lower for low income households and to vary by the current dwelling status and type of building location

how sensitive are consumer expenditures to retail energy prices abstract there is growing evidence that the primary effect of energy price shocks on the u s economy involves a reduction in consumer spending we quantify the direct effect on real consumption of unanticipated changes in discretionary income shifts in precautionary savings and changes in the operating cost of energy using durables the possibility of asymmetries in the response of real consumption to energy price shocks is also considered we demonstrate that linear models are consistent with the symmetric behavior of real consumption in 1979 when energy prices increased sharply and in 1986 when they fell sharply it is shown that historically energy price shocks have been an important factor in explaining u s real consumption growth but by no means the dominant factor

energy efficiency and household behavior the rebound effect in the residential sector over the years various efficiency policies have been designed and implemented to reduce residential energy consumption however it is very common that the policy expectations that are based upon engineering calculations do not come true the widely accepted explanation for the gap between expectation and the realization is the change of household behavior as the energy efficiency gains change the perceived cost of energy services and thereby generate shifts in consumption patterns the rebound effect the real controversy about the rebound effect lies in the identification of its magnitude in this paper we estimate the rebound effect in residential energy consumption by comparing the actual gas consumption levels with the ex ante predictions within a sample of well over 600 000 dutch dwellings and households we find a significant deviation between the engineering predictions and the households actual energy consumption a difference which varies by ownership wealth income and the actual gas use intensity our results show a rebound effect of 26 7 percent among home owners and 41 3 percent among tenants moreover we find that these effects are greatest among the lower income wealth groups and among households that tend to use more gas than average

do energy prices influence investment in energy efficiency evidence from energy star appliances abstract i examine whether electricity prices influence the likelihood that consumers purchase high efficiency appliances by using state year panel data on electricity prices and the proportion of sales of new appliances that involve high efficiency energy star models i find no evidence that electricity prices affect the propensity for consumers to choose high efficiency appliances point estimates are extremely small and precisely estimated the findings suggest that price based energy policies may be limited in the extent to which they increase investment in residential energy efficiency which has been considered one of the lowest cost opportunities for reducing carbon emissions

flying more efficiently joint impacts of fuel prices capital costs and fleet size on airline fleet fuel economy abstract we investigate the factors that affect airlines choice of fleet fuel economy using aircraft level data for 1267 airlines in 174 countries larger and newer aircraft are usually more fuel efficient controlling for the effect of aircraft size and age we find that the technically achievable fleet fuel economy improves with the size of airlines and the price of fuel and worsens with higher capital costs the elasticity of fuel economy with respect to the price of fuel is between 0 07 and 0 13 we find evidence for regional differences in fleet fuel economy that are attributable to the adoption of distinct groups of technologies

liquidity constraints and imperfect information in subprime lending ditions for precisely the population that is most likely to have a difficult time obtaining credit those with low incomes and poor credit histories these consumers who typically cannot qualify for regular bank loans comprise the so called subprime market because the company we study originates subprime loans its loan applications and transaction records provide an unusual win dow into the consumption and borrowing behavior of households that are rationed in primary credit markets moreover we track loan repayments allowing us to analyze the difficulties in lending to the subprime population we begin by documenting the importance of short term liquidity constraints for individuals in our sample we present two pieces of evidence both are based on purchasing behavior and indicate a high sensitivity to cash on hand first we document a dramatic degree of demand seasonality associated with tax rebates overall demand is almost 50 percent higher during tax rebate season than during other parts of the year this seasonal effect varies with household

individual time preferences and energy efficiency a large literature examines energy efficiency investments by consumers and firms partic ularly evaluation of the extent of and expla nations for an energy efficiency ee gap gerarden newell and stavins 2015 but prior studies have not considered the role of individ ual discount rates in such decisions instead most assessments assume a certain discount rate against which the rationality of observed choices is gauged allcott and wozny 2014 or alternatively estimate aggregate discount rates that best match observed ee decisions condi tional on an assumed decision model hausman 1979 the absence of evidence on the role of indi vidual discount rates is surprising because the profitability of ee investments depends fun damentally on the rate at which individuals discount future energy savings relative to the required upfront investment the potential importance of individual discount rates is further heightened by findings in experimental studies that elicited time preferences exhibit consider able heterogeneity frederick loewenstein and o donoghue 2002 this paper broadly examines the role of indi vidual discount rates in ee decisions our ear lier findings on information provision newell and siikamaki 2014 henceforth nsindicate that the efficacy of alternative labels in guiding cost efficient decisions depends critically on the discount rate used for analysis here we closely examine individual discount rates as a deter minant of the value households place on future energy savings our results demonstrate that individual dis count rates exhibit considerable heterogeneity

turnover of used durables in a stationary equilibrium are older goods traded more this paper develops a dynamic model with transaction costs to determine the equilibrium resale pattern in a market for a durable good the key result is that the probability of resale is nonmonotonic in the age of the good trade volume is relatively low in the very beginning and in the middle of a good s life this result helps explain observed variations of resale rates across vintages for the u s market of used cars

heterogeneous beliefs and housing market boom bust cycles abstract this paper presents a business cycle model capturing the stylized features of housing market boom bust cycles in developed countries the model implies that over optimism of mortgage borrowers generates housing market boom bust cycles if mortgage borrowers are credit constrained and savers do not share their optimism this result holds without price stickiness if price stickiness is introduced into the model then the model replicates a low policy interest rate during a housing boom as an endogenous reaction to a low inflation rate given a taylor rule thus monetary easing observed during housing booms are consistent with the presence of over optimism causing boom bust cycles

fuel consumption and gasoline prices the role of assortative matching between households and automobiles abstract analyses of policies to reduce gasoline consumption have focused on two effects a compositional effect on the fuel economy of the automotive fleet and a utilization effect on how much people drive however the literature has missed a third effect a matching effect in which policies change how high utilization households are matched to fuel efficient vehicles in equilibrium we show that higher gas prices should lead to stronger assortative matching empirical estimates using us micro level data are consistent with this hypothesis we find a 0 50 increase in the gas tax would reduce us gas consumption by 0 8 through the matching effect alone bringing annual environmental benefits of about 1 7 billion

the value of energy efficiency and the role of expected heating costs the german energy performance of buildings directive requires sellers on the housing market to provide detailed information on expected yearly energy consumption per square meter energy performance eps this paper uses variation in local fuel prices and climate fuel types and building ages to analyse the relationship between expected energy cost savings from energy efficient building structure and house prices in a data set of listing prices from all regions of germany results suggest that heating cost considerations are less relevant than previously thought

deconstructing the energy efficiency gap conceptual frameworks and evidence abstract energy efficient technologies offer considerable promise for reducing the financial costs and environmental damages associated with energy use but these technologies appear not to be adopted to the degree that appears justified even on a purely private basis we present two complementary frameworks for understanding this so called energy paradox or energy efficiency gap first we build upon previous literature by dividing potential explanations for the energy efficiency gap into three categories market failures behavioral anomalies and model and measurement errors second we examine the elements of cost minimizing energy efficiency decisions the typical benchmark used in assessing the gap s magnitude

vehicle miles not traveled fuel economy requirements vehicle characteristics and household driving abstract a major concern with addressing the negative externalities of gasoline consumption by regulating fuel economy rather than increasing fuel taxes is that households respond by driving more this paper exploits a discrete threshold in the eligibility for cash for clunkers to show that fuel economy restrictions lead households to purchase vehicles that have lower cost per mile but are also smaller and lower performance whereas the former effect can increase driving the latter effect can reduce it results indicate that these households do not drive more suggesting that behavioral responses do not necessarily undermine the effectiveness of fuel economy restrictions at reducing gasoline consumption

choice inconsistencies among the elderly evidence from plan choice in the medicare part d program we evaluate the choices of elders across their insurance options under the medicare part d prescription drug plan using a unique data set of prescription drug claims matched to information on the characteristics of choice sets we document that elders place much more weight on plan premiums than on expected out of pocket costs value plan financial characteristics beyond any impacts on their own financial expenses or risk and place almost no value on variance reducing aspects of plans partial equilibrium welfare analysis implies that welfare would have been 27 higher if patients had all chosen rationally

automobile externalities and policies this paper discusses the nature and magnitude of externalities associated with automobile use including local and global pollution oil dependence traffic congestion and traffic accidents it then discusses current federal policies affecting these externalities including fuel taxes fuel economy and emissions standards and alternative fuel policies summarizing insofar as possible the welfare effects of those policies finally we discuss emerging pricing policies including congestion tolls and insurance reform and summarize the appropriate combination of policies to address automobile externalities

house prices capital inflows and macroprudential policy this paper evaluates the monetary and macroprudential policies that mitigate the procyclicality arising from the interlinkages between current account deficits and financial vulnerabilities we develop a two country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium dsge model with heterogeneous households and collateralised debt the model predicts that external shocks are important in driving current account deficits that are coupled with run ups in house prices and household debt in this context optimal policy features an interest rate response to credit and a ltv ratio that countercyclically responds to house price dynamics by allowing an interest rate response to changes in financial variables the monetary policy authority improves social welfare because of the large welfare gains accrued to the savers the additional use of a countercyclical ltv ratio that responds to house prices increases the ability of borrowers to smooth consumption over the cycle and is pareto improving domestic and foreign shocks account for a similar fraction of the welfare gains delivered by such a policy

the economics of attribute based regulation theory and evidence from fuel economy standards in many countries fuel economy standards mandate that vehicles meet a certain fuel economy but heavier or larger vehicles are allowed to meet a lower standard this has the perverse implication of allowing automakers to meet standards either by improving fuel economy or by increasing weight which lowers fuel economy and increases externalities related to accidents this is but one example of an attribute based regulation in which the regulation imposed on a product depends on both the externality it creates and some other attribute attribute basing potentially motivates rms and individuals to strategically alter the attribute thereby endogenously altering the stringency of the regulation this paper develops a theory of attribute basing to demonstrate the costs and benets of its use the paper then empirically examines the consequences of attribute based fuel economy standards in japan where fuel economy standards are a notched attribute based function of vehicle weight we use cross sectional and panel techniques to demonstrate that attribute based regulation has signicantly altered the distribution of vehicle weight in japan where 10 of vehicles bunch at weight notches for cars whose weight is altered in response to the policy we estimate that the alteration generates a welfare loss from the exacerbation of weight related externalities of 1 500 per unit sold which translates into a 700 million annual loss across the japanese auto market

predicting gasoline prices using michigan survey data abstract this study investigates the predictive power of michigan surveys of consumers msc data for gasoline prices specifically we utilize the msc data on both expected inflation and consumer sentiment to construct a vector autoregressive var model for forecasting gasoline prices for 2003 2014 our findings indicate that the var forecasts are superior to the comparable benchmark forecasts obtained from a univariate integrated moving average ma model in terms of both predictive information content and directional accuracy as such we conclude that the msc data on both expected inflation and consumer sentiment have significant predictive information for gasoline prices further inspection reveals that the var forecasts are particularly accurate for the period since 2008 reinforcing the notion that consumers are economically rational

are consumers myopic evidence from new and used car purchases abstract we investigate whether car buyers are myopic about future fuel costs we estimate the effect of gasoline prices on short run equilibrium prices of cars of different fuel economies we then compare the implied changes in willingness to pay to the associated changes in expected future gasoline costs for cars of different fuel economies in order to calculate implicit discount rates using different assumptions about annual mileage survival rates and demand elasticities we calculate a range of implicit discount rates similar to the range of interest rates paid by car buyers who borrow we interpret this as showing little evidence of consumer myopia jel d12 h25 l11 l62 l71 l81

automobile prices in market equilibrium with unobserved price discrimination in markets where sellers are able to price discriminate or the buyers to bargain individuals receive discounts over the posted prices that are usually not observed by the econometrician this paper considers the structural estimation of a demand and supply model a la berry et al 1995 when only posted prices are observed we consider that heterogeneous discounts occur due to price discrimination by firms on observable characteristics of consumers within this framework identification is achieved by assuming that the marginal costs of producing and selling the goods do not depend on the characteristics of the buyers we also require a condition relating the posted prices to the prices actually paid for instance we can assume that at least one group of individuals pays the posted prices under these two conditions the demand and supply parameters as well as the exact discounts corresponding to each type of consumers can be identified we apply our methodology to estimate the demand and supply in the new automobile market in france results suggest that discounting arising from price discrimination is important the average discount is estimated to be 10 5 with large variation depending on the buyers characteristics and cars specifications our results are in line with discounts generally observed in european and american automobile markets