positive and normative judgments implicit in u s tax policy and the costs of unequal growth and recessions calculating the welfare implications of changes to economic policy or shocks requires economists to decide on a normative criterion one approach is to elicit the relevant moral criteria from real world policy choices converting a normative decision into a positive inference as in the recent surge of inverse optimum research we find that capitalizing on the potential of this approach is not as straightforward as we might hope we perform the inverse optimum inference on u s tax policy from 1979 through 2010 and argue that the results either undermine the normative relevance of the approach or challenge conventional assumptions upon which economists routinely rely when performing welfare evaluations

on the interaction between forecasting and stock control the case of non stationary demand the effect of using estimated forecast demand parameters on the performance of an inventory control system is an intriguing and important subject recent research has been undertaken on this phenomenon assuming stationary demand data in this paper we extend the research to non stationary demands by means of simulation the case of a periodic order up to level inventory system is considered and the experimental structure allows us to evaluate in a progressive manner the accumulated effect of using the optimal forecasting method optimal forecast parameters and correct variance expression procedures the results allow insights to be gained into operational issues and demonstrate the scope for improving stock control systems

measuring attitudes towards inequality individuals attitudes to inequality aversion are measured using survey data based on the leaky bucket experiment for several groups of students in australia and israel three forms of social welfare function are estimated it is found that measures of inequality aversion can be obtained with some precision and that these estimates are substantially lower than the values typically used by those measuring inequality and examining optimal tax structures furthermore a welfare function based on the gini inequality measure is generally found to give a better fit than forms based on constant relative or constant absolute inequality aversion jel classification c91 d63

managing inventory systems of slow moving items abstract slow moving demand patterns frequently occur with spare parts as well as items in decentralized retail supply chains with large assortments these patterns are commonly called lumpy since they exhibit comparably high demand variation and a high fraction of zero demand events in this paper we examine two distribution based approaches to model lumpy demand processes for inventory control i a generalized hurdle negative binomial model and ii a worst case non parametric model that is derived using a test based approach considering a base stock inventory policy we examine a set of lumpy time series from the industry to exemplify the suitability and benefit of the proposed approaches for managing inventory systems of slow moving items

would you like to shrink the welfare state a survey of european citizens welfare state reform a survey of what europeans want the fundamental problems facing european welfare states high unemployment and unsustainable public pensions plans in particular have been in the political debate for years so why have we seen so little reform to find out we surveyed the opinions of citizens in france germany italy and spain on their welfare states and on various reform options this is what we found first most workers underestimate the costs of public pensions though they are aware of their unsustainability second the status quo is a majoritarian outcome a majority of citizens opposes cuts to social security and welfare spending but also opposes further increases since population ageing without reform implies an automatic expansion our results suggest that most citizens would favour reforms that stabilize but do not shrink the current welfare states third many would welcome changes in the allocation of benefits a large number of workers in italy and germany would be willing to opt out of public pensions and replace them with private pensions though the details of how this scheme is formulated matter for its popularity and many italians and spaniards would welcome an extension of the coverage of unemployment insurance fourth conflicts over the welfare state are mainly shaped by the economic situation of the respondent while political ideology plays a limited role disagreements are found along three dimensions young versus old rich versus poor and outsider versus insider in terms of labour market status from a practical point of view this suggests that there is scope to bundle reforms strategically in order to build a large and mixed coalition of supporters tito boeri axel borsch supan and guido tabellini

new estimates of the elasticity of marginal utility for the uk this paper provides novel empirical evidence on the value of the elasticity of marginal utility eta for the united kingdom eta is a crucial component of the social discount rate sdr which determines the inter temporal trade offs that are acceptable to society using contemporaneous and historical data new estimates are obtained using four revealed preference techniques the equal sacrifice income tax approach the euler equation approach the frisch additive preferences approach and risk aversion in insurance markets a meta analysis indicates parameter homogeneity across approaches and a central estimate of 1 5 for eta the confidence interval excludes unity the value used in official guidance by the uk government the term structure of the sdr is then estimated the result is a short run sdr of 4 5 declining to 4 2 in the very long run this is higher and flatter than the uk official guidance the difference stems from incorrect calibration of social welfare and estimation of the diffusion of growth other things equal the results suggest that current uk guidance might need to be updated

inequality aversion versus risk aversion inequality aversion and risk aversion are widely assumed in economic models however existing economic literature fails to distinguish between the two this paper presents methodology and a laboratory experiment which separates inequality aversion from risk aversion in a set of laboratory experiments subjects had to choose between two risky alternatives which pay meaningful prizes with the same individual risk but different levels of egalitarianism thus the choice of the more egalitarian alternative implies a higher level of inequality aversion the experiment was conducted among children some of whom live on a communal system kibbutz and some in the city

individual preferences for political redistribution what drives people s support of governmental reduction of income inequality we employ data from a large international survey in order to evaluate the explanatory power of three competing forces referred to as the homo oeconomicus effect the public values effect and the social rivalry effect the empirical analysis reveals that at the aggregate level all three effects play a significant role in shaping individual preferences for political redistribution attitudes of citizens in formerly socialist countries turn out to differ from those of western citizens in a systematic way 2002 elsevier science b v all rights reserved

coping with poor public capital abstract despite recent successes in stabilization and structural reforms in many developing countries the private investment response to date has been mixed even among the strongest reformers this disappointing result can be partly explained by the continued poor provision of public capital and services we test this hypothesis using unique firm level data on investment and provision of public infrastructure services the results suggest that poor complementary public capital significantly reduces private investment however firms can substitute for deficient public services by investing in complementary capital themselves but this comes at a cost less productive capital will be installed

are people inequality averse or just risk averse individuals preferences for risk and inequality are measured through choices between imagined societies and lotteries the median relative risk aversion which is often seen to reflect social inequality aversion is between 2 and 3 most people are also found to be individually inequality averse reflecting a willingness to pay for living in a more equal society left wing voters and women are both more risk and inequality averse than others the model allows for non monotonic swfs implying that welfare may decrease with an individual s income at high income levels which is illustrated in simulations based on the empirical results

the theory of reform and indian indirect taxes abstract given a set of value judgements an initial state and a model of the economy one can ask whether some feasible tax change would increase welfare we do this by defining the marginal cost in terms of welfare of raising an extra rupee from the i th good the inverse optimum problem is the calculation of non negative welfare weights on households which imply that the initial state is optimum if no such welfare weights exist then a pareto improvement is possible we illustrate the concepts and results using data from the indian economy for 1979 1980 directions of tax reform for a number of specific social welfare functions and for pareto improvements are presented

on the evolution of market institutions the platform design paradox we study competition among market designers who create new trading platforms when boundedly rational traders learn to select among them we ask whether walrasian platforms leading to market clearing trading outcomes will dominate the market in the long run if several market designers compete we find that traders learn to select non market clearing platforms with prices systematically above the market clearing level provided at least one such platform is introduced by a market designer this in turn leads market designers to introduce non market clearing platforms hence platform competition induces non competitive market outcomes

optimal income transfer programs intensive versus extensive labor supply responses this paper analyzes optimal income transfers for low incomes labor supply responses are modeled along the intensive margin intensity of work on the job and along the extensive margin participation into the labor force when behavioral responses are concentrated along the intensive margin the optimal transfer program is a classical negative income tax program with a substantial guaranteed income support and a large phasing out tax rate however when behavioral responses are concentrated along the extensive margin the optimal transfer program is similar to the earned income tax credit with negative marginal tax rates at low income levels and a small guaranteed income carefully calibrated numerical simulations are provided

growth inequality and social welfare cross country evidence social welfare functions that assign weights to individuals based on their income levels can be used to document the relative importance of growth and inequality changes for changes in social welfare in a large panel of industrial and developing countries over the past 40 years most of the cross country and over time variation in changes in social welfare is due to changes in average incomes in contrast the changes in inequality observed during this period are on average much smaller than changes in average incomes are uncorrelated with changes in average incomes and have contributed relatively little to changes in social welfare

matching with contracts we develop a model of matching with contracts which incorporates as special cases the college admissions problem the kelso crawford labor market matching model and ascending package auctions we introduce a new law of aggregate demand for the case of discrete heterogeneous workers and show that when workers are substitutes this law is satisfied by profit maximizing firms when workers are substitutes and the law is satisfied truthful reporting is a dominant strategy for workers in a worker offering auction matching algorithm we also parameterize a large class of preferences satisfying the two conditions

inequality aversion in income health and income related health abstract based on a survey of a sample of the general public we estimate inequality aversion across income health and bivariate income health inequality aversion is domain specific mean inequality aversion is greater for income than for health but the underlying distributions of aversion attitudes differ with a highly bi modal distribution of inequality aversion values for health in which nearly half the participants display very low aversion and nearly half display very high aversion aversion to income related health inequality is greater than that to income or health alone consistent with previous literature we find only weak associations between aversion attitudes and individual characteristics the magnitude of the estimates implies potentially large gains in welfare from reducing inequality in these domains

investment under uncertainty testing the options model with professional traders abstract an important class of investment decisions is characterized by unrecoverable sunk costs resolution of uncertainty through time and the ability to invest in the future as an alternative to investing today the options model provides guidance in such settings including an investment decision rule called the bad news principle the downside investment state influences the investment decision whereas the upside investment state is ignored this study takes a new approach to examining predictions of the options model by using the tools of experimental economics our evidence drawn from student and professional trader subject pools is broadly consonant with the options model

using micro surveys to measure and explain corruption summary this paper discusses survey techniques aimed at a better measurement of corruption at the micro level and argues that with appropriate survey methods and interview techniques it is possible to collect quantitative micro level data on corruption public expenditure tracking surveys service provider surveys and enterprise surveys are highlighted with several applications these surveys permit measurement of corruption at the level of individual agents such as schools health clinics or firms they also permit the study of mechanisms responsible for corruption including capture of public funds and bribery 2005 elsevier ltd all rights reserved

forecasting sales of slow and fast moving inventories abstract traditional computerised inventory control systems usually rely on exponential smoothing to forecast the demand for fast moving inventories practices in relation to slow moving inventories are more varied but the croston method is often used it is an adaptation of exponential smoothing that 1 incorporates a bernoulli process to capture the sporadic nature of demand and 2 allows the average variability to change over time the croston approach is critically appraised in this paper corrections are made to underlying theory and modifications are proposed to overcome certain implementation difficulties a parametric bootstrap approach is outlined that integrates demand forecasting with inventory control the approach is illustrated on real demand data for car parts

is the bad news principle for real abstract the bad news principle states that only the expected severity of future bad news matters for the decision whether to invest today good news should not matter at all this paper tests this prediction using firm level expectation data

an approach to evaluate the impact of interaction between demand forecasting method and stock control policy on the inventory system performances abstract usually in stock control studies demand data are considered as an input to the model without explicitly considering that they are the results of a demand forecasting system stock control system is examined independently of the demand forecasting system and it is assumed that demand data or forecast errors have been properly modelled however the interactions that may exist between demand forecasting methods and stock control systems in terms of their effects on global system performances are not considered in the paper an approach for evaluating these interactions based on a comparative simulation test of global system costs using historical data is presented the approach is explained through a real case the replenishment from different suppliers of a central depot of tinned food which supplies more than 700 items to warehouses at the lower echelon results of the simulation study show that traditional measures of forecast errors cannot be taken as sole indicators for the choice among different demand forecasting methods these methods on the contrary have to be evaluated on the basis of total costs and service level of the global inventory control system

a leaky bucket in the real world estimating inequality aversion using survey data existing evidence of inequality aversion relies on data from class room experiments where subjects face hypothetical questions this paper estimates the magnitude of inequality aversion using representative survey data with questions related to the real economy situations the respondents face the results reveal that inequality aversion can be measured in a meaningful way using survey data but the magnitudes of the estimates depend dramatically on how inequality aversion is measured no matter how measured the revealed inequality aversion predicts opinions on a wide range of questions related to the welfare state such as the level of taxation tax progressivity and the structure of unemployment benefits

control of inventories with intermittent demand abstract the problem of controlling inventories with intermittent demands is considered a method for determining re order levels consistent with a specified customer service level is proposed the distinguishing feature is the use of a probability distribution with a spike at zero to represent the relative frequency of periods with no transactions