representing the influence of multiple social interactions on monthly tourism participation behavior abstract based on japanese panel data derived from 12 monthly waves and 1253 questionnaires the study examines the impact of social interactions on tourism participation social interactions are classified into three types namely endogenous exogenous and correlated effects it is empirically confirmed that endogenous social effects have significant influences on tourism participation behavior for example it is found that interactions with people of the same income groups an example of endogenous social effects are generally significant across most months of the year however it is worth noting that endogenous social effects will be overestimated if the correlated social effect is not taken into account the results suggest that social multiplier effects can be discerned that have potential implications for promotion and management of tourism participation rates

transfer pricing double taxation and the cost of capital the effects of double taxation are analysed when a multinational enterprise can shift profits by transfer pricing behaviour it is shown that the well known hartman sinn neutrality result may not hold in this case surprisingly an increase in the taxation of foreign dividends may lead to a lower cost of capital for the foreign subsidiary i introduction in recent years there has been growing awareness that multinational firms can evade a large portion of their statutory tax burden by manipulating transfer prices in cross border transactions one reason for shifting profits between jurisdictions using transfer pricing is the differences in corporate tax rates by underpricing intra company sales and overpricing intracompany purchases a subsidiary located in a high tax country can increase the multinational s overall profit since the parent s gain in after tax profit is higher than the subsidiary s net of tax loss a second reason for setting

best policy response to environmental shocks applying a stochastic framework abstract the paper develops a general framework for the analysis of environmental shocks in growing economies endogenous capital investments allow identifying the dual role of capital as a buffer against shocks and a source of pollution we study the effects of recurring natural disasters on optimal growth and efficient environmental policies emissions may cause continuous fluctuations entail discrete and recurring jumps or trigger so called tipping points with large costs to the economy closed form solutions are provided for all the model variants we discuss possible applications in environmental economics and identify current research gaps

demand for rural tourism the effects of quality and information the development of rural tourism is regarded as a promising diversification strategy especially for lagging and mountainous areas of the european union research concerning the demand and or supply of rural tourism services has been limited within the agricultural economics domain despite the significance attached to rural tourism by various rural development policy measures and initiatives the article examines the expenditure behavior of rural tourists within a framework of demand for composite heterogeneous goods the proposed framework captures the quality of the tourism experience as the commodity s unit value a quantifiable economic variable examines its effects on expenditures and allows for the estimation of elasticity in prices regarding expenditure and quantity empirical analysis is facilitated by a survey recording the expenditure behavior of 465 tourists in two rural and lagging areas of greece the quality of the tourism experience is significantly and positively affected by the income the source from which information about the trip is retrieved internet newspapers as well as general press and special travel press and by the amount of information sought by the consumer prior to the trip in turn the quality of the tourism experience is the major endogenous factor that positively influences expenditures for rural tourism further research is needed before evidence provided in this work can be used to draw policy conclusions and recommendations

determinants of pension plan fees in spain pension plans and funds represent a substantial part of the welfare systems in both europe and spain one of the most important factors in the choice of a plan or fund is the performance it obtains in view of the influence that fees have on performance the objective of this study is to analyse the variables that determine the management and custodial fees of individual pension plans the spanish market for pension plans and funds sets legal caps on these fees and at the same time the majority of them are commercialized and managed by financial institutions which can in turn generate a conflict of interests in this article we estimate models with censured variables and our findings show how the average investment per plan the legal status and the size of the management company to which the plan belongs and the style of the plan are all relevant determinants of the management fee in turn the custodial fee is determined by the legal status of the custodial company the size the return and the type

transfer pricing in a dynamic marketing operations interface abstract a transfer price mechanism is proposed to coordinate the strategies of the marketing and operations functional areas operating in a dynamic interface environment in a decentralized firm marketing and operations are strategic decision makers in a differential game in which marketing has price and advertising and operations has production as control variables and advertising goodwill and production backlog are state variables a constant transfer price is entered into the objective functionals for marketing and operations and subgame perfect feedback strategies are derived for price advertising and production as functions of the state variables the feedback strategies allow a solution for the dynamic system involving goodwill and backlog and the total payoff to the firm the sum of the payoffs to marketing and operations is determined as a function of the transfer price finally for certain parameter conditions an interior maximum of the payoff function is achieved and the optimal transfer price is identified

foreign direct investment intra firm trade and ownership structure abstract asymmetric information about true opportunity cost in trade between a multinational and its foreign affiliate can alleviate the hold up problem in foreign direct investment selling shares in the affiliate to locals is also beneficial because it increases the parent multinational s information rent that is protected from a host government s confiscatory taxation

demographic change tourism expenditure and life cycle behaviour abstract the paper explores how demographic changes in human populations may impact on tourism decision making of households over their life cycle by means of hurdle models the study focuses respectively on the decision to travel domestically or abroad and investigates if statistically significant differences exist as to the impact of age and cohort on the decision to travel and tourism expenditure using a vast dataset on italian household expenditures over the period 1997 2007 the empirical results show that demographic aspects do have a strong effect on the tourism behaviour of families and that cohort and age effects act differently on the decision of households to make a trip and on how much they spend on tourism age has a negative effect on the desire to travel but a positive effect on tourism expenditure on the other hand older cohorts are inclined to travel but they have a low propensity to spend on tourism relevant differences in income elasticity along the life cycle of households have also been found finally age and cohort aspects have a different effect on the decision as to whether to travel nationally or internationally

the takeover deterrent effect of open market share repurchases this paper examines whether open market share repurchases deter takeovers we model pre repurchase takeover probability as a latent variable and examine its impact on the firm s decision to repurchase shares given specification tests reject the tobit model we turn to the censored quantile regression method of powell 1986 journal of econometrics 32 143 155 we find a significantly positive relation between open market share repurchases and takeover probability and we reconcile empirical findings in previous studies that contradict predictions repurchase activity is inversely related to firm size consistent with smaller firms having greater information asymmetry and is related to temporary but not permanent cash flows

renewable resource management with stochastic recharge and environmental threats abstract exploitation diminishes the capacity of renewable resources to withstand environmental stress increasing their vulnerability to extreme conditions that may trigger abrupt changes the onset of such events depends on the coincidence of extreme environmental conditions and on the resource state determining its resilience when the former is uncertain and the latter evolves stochastically the uncertainty regarding the event occurrence is the result of the combined effect of these two uncertain components we study optimal management in this setting the environmental threat renders the single period discount factor policy dependent and as a result the compound discount factor becomes history dependent existence of an optimal markovian deterministic stationary policy is established and the optimal state process is shown to converge to a steady state distribution

welfare measurement under threats of environmental catastrophes abstract welfare measures under threats of environmental catastrophes are studied using the parable apparatus of weitzman and lofgren on the welfare significance of green accounting as taught by parable j environ econ manage 32 1997 139 153 the occurrence probability of the catastrophic events is driven at least partly by anthropogenic activities such as natural resource exploitation without external effects the green nnp is a genuine welfare measure vis a vis a particular parable economy often however the occurrence hazard constitutes a public bad treated as an externality by agents who ignore their own contribution to its accumulation in such cases the green nnp although accounting for the event hazard rate per se fails to properly internalize future effects on the hazard rate of current economic activities and as a result overestimates welfare the bias term associated with the green nnp is derived and expressed in a simple and interpretable form

bayesian analysis of the two part model with endogeneity application to health care expenditure this paper studies the effect of managed care on medical expenditure using a model in which the insurance status is assumed to be endogenous insurance plan choice is modeled through the multinomial probit model the medical expenditure variable the outcome of interest has a significant proportion of zeros that are handled using the two part model extended to handle endogenous insurance the estimation approach is bayesian based on the gibbs sampler the model is applied to a sample of 20 460 individuals obtained from the medical expenditure panel survey the results provide substantial evidence of selectivity copyright 2006 john wiley sons ltd

strategic transfer pricing most research into cost systems has focused on their motivational implications this paper takes a different approach by developing a model where two oligopolistic firms strategically select their cost based transfer prices duopoly models frequently assume that firms game on their choice of prices product prices however are ultimately based on the firms transfer prices that communicate manufacturing costs to marketing departments it is for this reason that transfer prices will have a strategic component to them we derive implications for cost system choice and transfer pricing including showing that firms may cross subsidize their products a result consistent with the empirical evidence

the impact of changes in household vacation expenditures on the travel and hospitality industries two large tourism industries travel and hospitality are strongly affected by changes in household demand for vacations in recent years rising income and declining prices per unit of quality have led to changes in patterns of household vacation consumption to understand the impact of these changes on the travel and hospitality industries we develop a theoretical model distinguishing between travel and on site expenditures and apply it to israeli data we find that under certain circumstances the changes in income and prices are responsible for a shift toward multiple short vacations this trend can be a boon to the travel industry but a disadvantage for the hospitality industry both industries are expected to face a rise in the demand for high quality products

modelling r d expenditure data with zero observations two equation model this article attempts to analyse the determinants of firms research and development r d expenditures in korea by considering the business environment after the economic crisis in 1997 in addition to take into account zero r d expenditure this article employed a two equation model unlike models used in other studies this method incorporates a two level decision structure the participation decision and the decision on the amount to spend once the issue of participation has been decided according to the estimation results while the proposition that larger firms are more active in r d is true the proposition that firms that possess market power are more active in r d is not true for korea technical cooperation among korean firms seems to be less active than in other countries in addition the results indicate that foreign investment stimulates the firms r d expenditure furthermore a number of factors were found to play a role in promoting firms r d activities the external conditions of the f

the management of fragile resources a long term perspective excessive exploitation diminishes the capacity of natural resources to withstand environmental stress increasing their vulnerability to extreme conditions that may trigger abrupt changes the onset of such events depends on the coincidence of random environmental conditions and the resource state determining its resilience examples include species extinction ecosystem collapse disease outburst and climate change induced calamities the policy response to the catastrophic threat is measured in terms of its effect on the long term behavior of the resource state to that end the l methodology developed originally to study autonomous systems is extended to non autonomous problems involving catastrophic threats

consumer choice and competition policy a study of uk energy markets consumer choice is increasingly recognised as a crucial factor in competition policy to illustrate the implications of such choice we present an investment model of the switching choice in the uk residential natural gas market and examine responses to a specially commissioned survey of nearly seven hundred consumers identifying search and switching costs through an assessment of the savings which consumers say they require to switch supplier together with an evaluation of consumer switching behaviour we deduce that the incumbent retained considerable market power suggesting that some continued regulation may be necessary

investigating the sensitivity of equilibrium profits to advertising dynamics and competitive effects the author investigates the validity of the flat maximum principle the insensitivity of a firm s profits to changes in its optimal advertising level in a duopolistic market in which advertising by the two firms has carryover effects two alternative competitive scenarios are examined i in which total industry sales are allowed to vary over time and ii where firms are engaged in market share rivalry for i the open loop nash equilibrium advertising strategies for the firms are derived assuming a specific sales response function and an infinite time horizon a numerical analysis of the sensitivity of firms profit functions to advertising expenditures is performed at different levels of the a discount rate b advertising elasticity and c advertising decay rate an empirical illustration from the pharmaceutical industry is provided special cases of the model formulation are examined analytically in order to highlight the intuition behind the flatness of the maximum and to study the sensitivity of results obtained to choice of equilibrium strategy closed loop vs open loop for the market share game closed loop policies are considered and the flat maximum principle is illustrated in the context of coke pepsi rivalry in the soft drinks market

managing the endogenous risk of disease outbreaks with non constant background risk there is a growing concern that risks of disease outbreak and pandemics are increasing over time we consider optimal investments in prevention before an outbreak using an endogenous risk approach within an optimal control setting using the threat of pandemic influenza as an illustrative example we demonstrate that prevention expenditures are relatively small in comparison to the potential losses facing the usa and these expenditures need to be flexible and responsive to changes in background risk failure to adjust these expenditures to changes in background risk poses a significant threat to social welfare into the future

optimal transition to backstop substitutes for nonrenewable resources abstract we analyze the optimal transition from a primary nonrenewable resource to a backstop substitute for a class of problems characterized by the property that the backstop cost decreases continuously as learning from r d efforts accumulates to increase the knowledge base the transition policy consists of the r d process and of the time profiles of the primary and backstop resource supply rates we find that the optimal r d process follows a most rapid approach path mrap the knowledge process associated with r d should approach some endogenously derived target process as rapidly as possible and proceed along it thereafter thus if the initial knowledge level is sufficiently low and the cost structure justifies r d activities the r d efforts should be initiated without delay at the highest affordable rate and slow down later on this pattern contrasts previous findings that typically recommend a single humped r d process with a possible initial delay

endogenous transfer pricing and the effects of uncertain regulation abstract a scenario is constructed under which a multinational firm mnf faces a threat of a penalty the probability of which is based on the mnf s transfer price given this scenario the mnf s optimum transfer price could be in the interior and simultaneous interaction of the transfer price and real variables exists increased surveillance of the transfer price makes the mnf move its transfer price towards the arm s length price and checks fiscal abuses but it worsens the international allocation of resources even though the cost advantage of the exporting country increases still the impact on global welfare is ambiguous

a game theoretic approach to transfer pricing in a vertically integrated supply chain we study the problem of setting transfer prices in a vertically integrated supply chain in which the divisions share technology and transactions costs we develop a cooperative game that provides transfer prices for the intermediate products in the supply chain this model is applied both when the market prices for these products are known and also when their valuations differ we provide a solution that is fair and acceptable to all divisions in the perfect information case the shapley value generates the transfer prices while in the asymmetric case we obtain transfer prices from the solution to a linear program

regulation with anticipated learning about environmental damages a regulator anticipates learning about the relation between environmental stocks and economic damages for a model with linear quadratic abatement costs and environmental damages and a general learning process we show analytically that anticipated learning decreases the optimal level of abatement at a given information set if learning causes the regulator to eventually decide that damages are higher than previously thought learning eventually increases abatement learning also favors the use of taxes rather than quotas using a model that is calibrated to describe the problem of global warming we show numerically that anticipated learning causes a significant reduction in first period abatement and a small increase in the preference for taxes rather than quotas even if the regulator s initial priors about environmental damages are much too optimistic he is able to learn quickly enough to keep the expected stock trajectory near the optimal trajectory

a fractionally integrated autoregressive moving average approach to forecasting tourism demand the primary aim of this paper is to incorporate fractionally integrated arma p d q arfima models into tourism forecasting and to compare the accuracy of forecasts with those obtained by previous studies the models are estimated using the volume of monthly international tourist arrivals in singapore empirical findings demonstrate the evidence that the approach we propose generates relatively lower sample mean absolute percentage errors mapes this study also deals with the volatile data faced by a forecaster we use the asian financial crisis and the september 11 event as examples of economic and political shocks with respect to the objective of shaving the coefficient mape forecasts based on the selected arfima models dominate convincingly

income and the substitution pattern between domestic and international tourism demand this article analyses the role of income in the decision of participating in the tourism demand within 1 year the tourists who are participating can travel to domestic destinations only abroad destinations only or to both of them such a substitution pattern is modelled using a bivariate probit model the analysis is carried out to the regional level using a survey conducted in 15 european eu 15 countries in addition to the traditional socioeconomic variables the analysis adds new variables to the outbound tourism demand modelling such as the attributes of the place of residence the results show that tourism demand is income elastic however there are marked differences in the income elasticities of the probabilities of travelling domestically or abroad above certain income threshold the substitution pattern between destinations takes part the probability of travelling domestically only remains constant whereas the probability of travelling abroad keeps growing additionally the article prov

coordination mechanisms of supply chain systems supply chain management scm has become an important management paradigm as supply chain members are often separate and independent economic entities a key issue in scm is to develop mechanisms that can align their objectives and coordinate their activities so as to optimize system performance in this paper we provide a review of coordination mechanisms of supply chain systems in a framework that is based on supply chain decision structure and nature of demand this framework highlights the behavioral aspects and information need in the coordination of a supply chain the identification of these issues points out several directions of future research in this area

fair transfer price and inventory holding policies in two enterprise supply chains abstract a key issue in supply chain optimisation involving multiple enterprises is the determination of policies that optimise the performance of the supply chain as a whole while ensuring adequate rewards for each participant in this paper we present a mathematical programming formulation for fair optimised profit distribution between echelons in a general multi enterprise supply chain the proposed formulation is based on an approach applying the nash bargaining solution for finding optimal multi partner profit levels subject to given minimum echelon profit requirements the overall problem is first formulated as a mixed integer non linear programming minlp model a spatial and binary variable branch and bound algorithm is then applied to the above problem based on exact and approximate linearisations of the bilinear terms involved in the model while at each node of the search tree a mixed integer linear programming milp problem is solved the solution comprises inter firm transfer prices production and inventory levels flows of products between echelons and sales profiles the applicability of the proposed approach is demonstrated by a number of illustrative examples based on industrial processes

the regulation of environmental innovations abstract we offer mechanisms to regulate environmental r d projects that are intertemporal and indivisible and involve high monitoring cost screening and contracting the r d performer are based solely on the project completion time when the project duration is ex ante uncertain to all parties including the performing firm the mechanism is formulated in terms of a completion time limit the mechanism extends to other intertemporal public projects as well as to principal agent settings with dynamic agent s tasks

scarcity growth and r d abstract the limits to economic growth due to resource scarcity can be alleviated only by the development of backstop substitutes this paper combines resource based economic growth with r d to reduce the cost of backstop technologies characterizing the entire dynamics of optimal growth and r d processes we find that an economy s growth prospects depend on its type as determined by its production technology and learning ability and by its knowledge capital endowment a wide variety of growth patterns emerges ranging from cases in which an economy that without r d eventually stagnates converges to a steady state is diverted by r d onto a path of sustained growth to cases in which r d is not warranted resource scarcity is shown to encourage r d due to the increased reliance on the backstop technology

development ecological resources and their management a study of complex dynamic systems abstract human well being depends to a large extent on services provided by ecological systems in poor countries this dependence is more transparent than in industrialised countries where the dependence is more indirect effective management of these systems requires a good understanding of their properties and in particular a knowledge of the dynamics of the systems in the article the dynamics of one simple system is analysed economically the system is a lake and the interaction between the run off of nutrients into the lake and the growth of either algae eutrophication in lakes in northern europe and north america or water hyacinths in lakes in southern and eastern sfrica is studied it turns out that the dynamics exhibit bifurcation points so that there are two basins of attraction if the system flips to one basin and it is regarded desirable to return to the other basin there will be hysteresis assuming that there are different users of the lake a differential game is constructed that captures the strategic interests of the users the resulting equilibrium shows first the conventional negative externality that will force the system to a different basin od attraction finally we investigate the use of a tax for bringing back the system to a pareto optimum

abrupt positive feedback and the social cost of carbon optimal climate policy should act in a precautionary fashion to deal with tipping points that occur at some future random moment the optimal carbon tax should include an additional component on top of the conventional present discounted value of marginal global warming damages this component increases with the sensitivity of the hazard to temperature or the stock of atmospheric carbon if the hazard of a catastrophe is constant no correction is needed of the usual pigouvian tax the results are applied to a tipping point resulting from an abrupt and irreversible release of greenhouse gases from the ocean floors and surface of the earth which set in motion a positive feedback loop convex enough hazard functions cause overshooting of the carbon tax but a linear hazard function gives rise to undershooting a more convex hazard function and a high discount rate speed up adjustment

consumption pollution tradeoffs in an environment vulnerable to pollution related catastrophic collapse abstract this paper considers the consequences of an avoidable risk of irreversible environmental catastrophe for society s optimal long run consumption pollution tradeoffs the risk is assumed to be a nondecreasing function of pollution concentration which evolves as a dynamic environmental renewal process the main objective of the paper is to derive qualitative insights regarding the effects of such risk on optimal management

foreign subsidiary transfer pricing and tariffs in the transfer pricing literature horst 12 concludes that the multinational firm mnf will generally charge a low transfer price ltp while other authors are ambivalent on this question this paper shows that less than whole ownership over the subsidiary generally makes the mnf change its transfer pricing strategy from desiring a ltp to wanting a high transfer price htp the conditions for an htp are fairly broad so that we are more likely to observe it than has been suggested in the literature the mnf literature also presumes that the host country loses revenue due to an htp however this view ignores the effects of tariffs on a government s revenue if tariff revenue is included an htp can increase the host country s revenue

american taxation of multinational firms publisher summary this chapter discusses the american taxation of multinational firms it is assumed that a multinational firm starts with an existing stock of foreign and domestic investment and seeks the optimal change in its position over the next year as the earnings generated by existing investments are an important source of capital for new investment one cannot ignore the role of the past in shaping the present the chapter presents an analysis that focuses not only on the levels of foreign and domestic investment but also on the financing of that investment it is also assumed that the foreign subsidiary can deduct from its taxable income interest on intrafirm debt as well as royalties head office charges and other such payments for intrafirm services

understanding tourists economizing strategies during the global economic crisis abstract this paper explores how tourists from 165 regions of eu 27 countries cut back their tourism expenditure during the global economic crisis in 2009 cutbacks in tourism expenditure are divided into two mutually related decisions firstly whether or not the tourists decided to cut back on tourism expenditure because of the crisis and second which of six options they employed as their cut back strategy fewer holidays reduced length of stay cheaper means of transport cheaper accommodation travel closer to home or change the period of travel the econometric model used to address these kinds of simultaneous decisions is an adaptation of the heckman model within a generalized structural equations modelling approach this methodology controls for sample selection bias and correlations between equations this paper highlights patterns in cutback decisions that are associated with the socioeconomic characteristics of the household and the climate in the country of origin

tourism participation and expenditure by spanish households the effects of the economic crisis and unemployment abstract this paper examines household tourism participation decisions and tourism expenditure across the business cycle microdata is used from the spanish household budget survey for the years 2006 2010 facilitating an analysis of the consequences of the economic crisis and unemployment on tourism consumption decisions by households by estimating a heckman model the effects of households socioeconomic determinants on participation and expenditure decisions can be identified taking the year 2008 the beginning of the crisis as a reference the stability of the tourism expenditure model is tested identifying variables whose effects alter in times of crisis one important aspect of the study is how household unemployment affects tourism participation and expenditure decisions the effect of unemployment takes into account whether it is the main breadwinner his or her spouse or another member of the household who is unemployed concentrating on those households whose main breadwinner was employed at the time an analysis is also made of how job insecurity affects tourism consumption decisions from the results the unemployment variables can be seen to have a significant explanatory power suggesting that unemployment information does help to explain the evolution of tourism expenditure across the business cycle

accounting for global warming risks resource management under event uncertainty abstract optimal management of atmospheric pollution is discussed with a special emphasis on the uncertainty concerning the occurrence of undesirable events associated with the greenhouse effect the uncertainty considered here stems from our ignorance of the exact pollution level required to trigger the event rather than from the genuinely stochastic nature of the processes involved taking atmospheric pollution level as the state variable it is found that uncertainty implies the existence of an equilibrium interval within which the emission rate of the greenhouse gases should be kept equal to the natural removal rate of these gases processes initiated outside the equilibrium interval must converge monotonically to its nearest endpoint the determination of the interval requires no knowledge of the optimal policy in contrast ignoring event occurrence risk implies a single equilibrium level attracting the optimal process from any initial level

the economics of non convex ecosystems introduction the word convexity is ubiquitous in economics but absent from economics in this paper we explain why and show what difference it makes to economic analysis if ecosystem non convexities are taken seriously a simple proof is provided of the connection between self similarity and power laws we also provide an introduction to each of the papers in the symposium and draw out the way in which they form a linked set of contributions

optimal management with potential regime shifts we analyze how the threat of a potential future regime shift affects optimal management we use a simple general growth model to analyze four cases that involve combinations of stock collapse versus changes in system dynamics and exogenous versus endogenous probabilities of regime shift prior work in economics has focused on stock collapse with endogenous probabilities and reaches ambiguous conclusions on whether the potential for regime shift will increase or decrease intensity of resource use and level of resource stock we show that all other cases yield unambiguous results in particular with endogenous probability of regime shift that affects system dynamics the potential for regime shift causes optimal management to become precautionary in the sense of maintaining higher resource stock levels

an analysis of households appraisal of their budget constraints for potential participation in tourism abstract this paper examines the importance of households budget constraints as a barrier to participation in tourism for this purpose a sample of spanish households drawn from the european community household panel was analysed this survey gathers data on the economic and socio demographic situation of all adult household members more specifically it includes a question on each household s capacity to afford a week s yearly holiday the aim of this question is to assess whether households have sufficient financial resources to participate in tourism the results of the analysis demonstrate that budget constraints on tourist travel are binding for a significant percentage of spanish households the results also show that this type of constraint is not only conditioned by the level of income but by a more complex appraisal that also includes other financial variables such as households saving capacity or the unemployment status of its members furthermore non financial variables such as the level of education age and barriers associated with poor health status all help to determine the degree of importance with which households perceive their budget constraints

models as usual for unusual risks on the value of catastrophic climate change we study the role of alternative intertemporal preference representations in a model of economic growth stock pollutant and endogenous risk of catastrophic collapse we contrast the traditional discounted utility model which assumes risk neutrality with respect to intertemporal utility with a multiplicative choice model that displays risk aversion in that dimension first we show that both representations of preferences can rationalize the same business as usual economy for a given interest rate and no pollution externality second once we introduce a collapse risk whose hazard rate is a function of the pollution stock multiplicative preferences recommend a much more stringent policy response an illustration in the context of climate change indicates that switching to the multiplicative preference representation has a similar effect in terms of policy recommendations as scaling up the schedule of the hazard rate by a factor of 100

determinants of vacation travel among israeli seniors theory and evidence this study investigates determinants of vacation travel among seniors a consumer choice model is developed that incorporates effects of retirement and health on available leisure time and effects of age and education on disposable income the empirical implications of the model depend on leisure and income patterns that in turn determine if time and budget constraints are binding the model is illustrated using data collected from israeli seniors results confirm theoretical predictions regarding the changing effectiveness of constraints as seniors grow older

perverse intra firm trade this paper shows that linkages between domestic costs and direction of intra firm trade break down when the multinational firms mnfs face tax rate differentials thus in the context of mnfs conclusions drawn on the assumption of equal or nonexistent tax rates cannot be assumed to extend to the general case of unequal tax rates further saving on profit taxes itself can be a powerful motive for internalisation

optimal pricing and production in an inventory model abstract this paper deals with the problem of simultaneously determining the optimal price policy and production rate over a given planning horizon for nonlinear demand functions and convex inventory and shortage cost functions the optimal solution paths are derived by using optimal control theory the treatment of linear nonsmooth cost functions requires the use of a generalized maximum principle the solution method is a phase portrait analysis providing insight into the optimal pricing and production policies as well as the resulting inventory paths moreover it is shown that in the case of nonsmooth piecewise linear cost functions the equilibrium is approached within finite time although the model is nonlinear in the control variables finally it is illustrated that exogenous fluctuations in the demand rate seasonal demand pattern amount to cyclical optimal solutions

transfer pricing and ownership structure we study the performance of jointly owned production units where upstream firms sell inputs to a downstream final market producer it is found that compared to integrated firms co ownership leads to overinvoicing of input prices transfer prices resulting in lower aggregate profits tax and tariff policy may lessen the organizational inefficiencies of jointly owned firms the analysis suggests that firms must have other reasons for forming jointly owned production units than those guided by production efficiency and benefits from delegation of decision making jel classification f23 l23

optimal environmental taxation in the presence of other taxes general equilibrium analyses this paper examines the optimal setting of environmental taxes in economies where other distortionary taxes are present we employ analytical and numerical models to explore the degree to which in a second best economy optimal environmental tax rates differ from the rates implied by the pigovian principle according to which the optimal tax rate equals the marginal environmental damages both models indicate contrary to what several analysts have suggested that the optimal tax rate on emissions of a given pollutant is generally less than the rate supported by the pigovian principle moreover the optimal rate is lower the larger are the distortions posed by ordinary taxes numerical results indicate that previous studies may have seriously overstated the size of the optimal carbon tax by disregarding pre existing taxes this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

forecasting tourism demand with arma based methods abstract the forecast of tourism volume in the form of arrivals is of special importance for tourism and other hospitality industries because it is an indicator of future demand thereby providing basic information for subsequent planning and policy making in this paper three univariate arma based models are applied to tourism demand as represented by the number of world wide visitors to hong kong japan korea taiwan singapore thailand the philippines australia and new zealand the study employs both monthly and quarterly time series generated from nine principal tourist destinations in asian pacific region in the forecasting exercise to ensure the reliability of the forecasting evaluation forecasting performance based on disaggregated arrival series in a particular destination is examined as well the general impression is that the arma based models perform very well and in some cases the magnitude of mean absolute percentage error is lower than 2 level

insurance and climate driven extreme events abstract we investigate how insurance affects agents decisions when being faced by endogenous climate driven extreme events this is not only important in order to understand how the possibility of insurance augments mitigation and saving decisions but it also improves our understanding of how insurance should be provided since there are no studies as of now that rely on such an integrated approach we extend the literature along two lines firstly we develop a neoclassical growth framework with endogenous extreme events and an insurance sector secondly we introduce a simulation method that allows us to explicitly take these extreme events into account and which yields additional numerical insights in doing so we can fully characterize and quantify the impact of different insurance policies for mitigation and economic growth decisions our analytical results and computational experiments show that i transparency of the insurance sector is the decisive requisite for abatement activities implying substantial policy opportunities ii a decentralized economy will under invest in abatement without adequate policy interventions iii precautionary beliefs on the frequency of extreme events lead to more sustainability iv a social security system which prices insurance fairly is preferable to an insurance industry which provides insurance with an overhead

learning by doing and the costs of a backstop for energy transition and sustainability we assess the impact of being able to substitute an unlimited but costly energy substitute like wind solar for a non renewable resource like oil coal in a model of sustainable growth the prospects for sustainability on the optimal path depend crucially on the costs of this substitute furthermore the poorer a country measured in terms of capital stock at a given point in time the later it should switch to the renewable substitute and the more likely it will be unsustainable taking learning by doing in account we find that this leads to an earlier switching time but does not guarantee sustainability

dealing with bottled water expenditures data with zero observations a semiparametric specification abstract this paper analyzes bottled water expenditures data with zero observations by employing parametric and semiparametric models the overall results of specification tests indicate that the semiparametric model outperforms the parametric model significantly

a micro econometric analysis of vacation behaviour we present a micro econometric limited dependent variable model which simultaneously explains the decision whether to go on vacation or not the choice of destination and the decision on the level of the vacation expenditures the model has been estimated on the basis of a cross section of dutch households we find a striking difference in income elasticity between domestic vacations and vacations abroad and a large impact of owning certain durables such as a boat on the choice of destination to illustrate the potential of the model some simulations are performed

a differential game model of the marketing operations interface in the development of their dynamic strategies the marketing and operations functions within a firm have differing objectives and conflict between the two functions is common the strategic interdependence involving marketing and operations decisions is modeled as a noncooperative differential game demand is assumed to be a function of price and advertising goodwill and marketing controls price and advertising to maximize its discounted stream of revenue net of advertising costs backlogging is allowed and operations controls production to minimize its discounted stream of production and backlog costs a feedback nash equilibrium is derived for the game which allows a solution of the system of differential equations for goodwill and backlog and is analyzed to study the nature of the dynamic strategies for price advertising and production

pollution control in an uncertain environment abstract the effects of the threat of occurrence of environmental catastrophes on optimal pollution control are considered recent analysis of irreversible events is extended to two types of reversible events single occurrence and multiple occurrence recurrent events while it is possible that the threat of irreversible events induces more pollution we show that reversible events under quite general conditions induce more conservation less pollution the analysis is carried out via a simple method the h method to identify optimal steady states by comparing steady state policies with small variations from them for recurrent events the optimal state process must approach a unique steady state from any initial level in this case the h method characterizes the dynamic behavior of the optimal state process without actually solving for it

are we consuming too much this paper articulates and applies frameworks for examining whether consumption is excessive we consider two criteria for the possible excessiveness or insufficiency of current consumption one is an intertemporal utility maximization criterion actual current consumption is deemed excessive if it is higher than the level of current consumption on the consumption path that maximizes the present discounted value of utility the other is a sustainability criterion which requires that current consumption be consistent with non declining living standards over time we extend previous theoretical approaches by offering a formula for the sustainability criterion that accounts for population growth and technological change in applying this formula we find that some poor regions of the world are failing to meet the sustainability criterion in these regions genuine wealth per capita is falling as investments in human and manufactured capital are not sufficient to offset the depletion of natural capital

multinational firms and government revenues abstract underinvoicing of intrafirm exports by a multinational firm mnf can increase the exporting country s revenue overinvoicing can increase the importing country s revenue when its tariff rate is higher than its profit tax rate and both countries revenues may change in the same direction transfer pricing increases the mnf s global tax burden unambiguously when the home profit tax rate is not smaller than the foreign and the mnf overinvoices and can increase it in other cases this last result arises when increase in the level of intrafirm trade which accompanies transfer pricing and or non wholly owned subsidiary are considered

production inventory and pricing under cost and demand learning effects abstract the paper considers a monopolist firm that plans its production inventory and pricing policy over a fixed and finite horizon the problem is represented by an optimal control model which combines elements from three streams of literature the first of these is a classical or area and deals with optimal production and inventory under exogenously given demand conditions the second is an area of marketing science which studies dynamic pricing under demand learning effects demand learning refers to the situation where current demand for a product is influenced by past demand the third area belongs to microeconomics and industrial organization and is concerned with the effects of learning by doing in a firm s production process learning is reflected in a unit production cost that decreases with cumulative production using a path synthezising procedure we obtain closed form characterizations of optimal production pricing and inventory policies

modelling willingness to pay responses from dichotomous choice contingent valuation surveys with zero observations modelling household behaviour with the data from dichotomous choice contingent valuation dccv surveys is often complicated by zero willingness to pay wtp responses in the sample to deal with the zero responses a two equation model is considered which incorporates a two level decision structure a decision on whether to participate in having wtp and a decision on the wtp amount conditional on deciding to participate and two separate stochastic processes that determine the probability and conditional level of wtp are featured the model is empirically applied to household survey data in which the dccv questions concerned the benefits of air quality improvement in korea to put the issue of the two equation model in perspective this paper also experiments with economic and econometric specifications utility theoretic restriction and heteroscedasticity it is shown how failure to allow for the restriction distorts aggregate benefit estimates and the existence of heteroscedasticity in error term is

parametric and semi parametric modelling of vacation expenditures we analyse several limited dependent variable models explaining the budget share that dutch families spend on vacations to take account of the substantial number of zero shares two types of models are used the first is the single equation censored regression model we estimate and test several parametric and semi parametric extensions of the tobit model second we consider two equation models in which the participation decision and the decision on the amount to spend are treated separately the first decision is modelled as a binary choice model the second as a conditional regression we estimate and test parametric and semi parametric specifications

analyzing and forecasting tourism demand with arar algorithm abstract this study investigates the arar model and its usefulness as a forecast generating mechanism for tourism demand for nine major tourist destinations in the asian pacific region the analysis is conducted on monthly inflow of international visitors covering the period 1975 01 2006 12 in monthly series we consider 6 12 18 and 24 months ahead forecasting horizons the accuracy of the forecasts in most cases is robust to the forecasting horizon based on such forecasting performance metric as mean absolute percentage error mape and root mean square error rmse the study is further expanded by including quarterly series in the forecasting exercise to ensure the reliability of the forecasting evaluation the 2 4 6 and 8 quarters ahead forecasting horizons are investigated a comparison between forecasts generated by monthly and quarterly data reveals that the performance is broadly similar finally the forecasts of arar are compared with those of seasonal arima which has been proven reliable in many forecasting contexts indeed arar model can be deemed as credible alternatives when modeling and forecasting tourism demand

quality improvement vs advertising support which strategy works better for a manufacturer abstract we consider a marketing channel with a single manufacturer and a single retailer where both advertising and quality improvement contribute to the build up of goodwill in a non coop scenario the retailer controls the advertising efforts while the manufacturer controls the quality improvements and wholesale price although improving quality positively contributes to goodwill it also increases the production cost thereby reducing the manufacturer s profit in a coop scenario the manufacturer supports the retailer s advertising while decreasing his investments in quality we investigate the conditions under which a coop program is beneficial when such a trade off occurs our results demonstrate that only when advertising significantly contributes to goodwill the manufacturer has an incentive to cooperate and a coop program turns out to be pareto improving conversely the retailer is always better off with a coop program moreover the channel is operational and marketing driven when quality effectiveness is high independent of advertising effectiveness or when both quality and advertising effectiveness are large in all other cases the channel is marketing driven

a double hurdle analysis of travel expenditure baby boomer seniors versus older seniors abstract this study examined the socio demographic and economic determinants of leisure travel expenditure and compared these determinants in baby boomer senior households and older senior households in the united states unlike previous studies this study performed heckman s double hurdle analysis using the consumer expenditure survey ces to present a two step process for making travel consumption decisions the results revealed that more baby boomer senior households participated in leisure travels than older senior households however among those households that chose to travel the mean expenditure of the older senior group was higher than for baby boomers this study also showed similarities and differences in the determinants of travel consumption decisions between baby boomer seniors and older seniors this two step approach provided in depth information on the processes involved in deciding to travel and how much to spend on travel this additional information will be valuable in understanding senior consumers in the tourism industry

semiparametric econometrics a survey summary semiparametric econometric models contain both parametric and nonparametric components reflecting in some fashion what has been learned from economic theory and previous empirical experience and what remains unknown they raise such questions as how well the parametric component can be estimated and how to construct rules of inference with good statistical properties the paper attempts to survey the econometric and most relevant statistical literature on semiparametric inference and includes a partial bibliography

the multinational firm with arm s length transfer price limits abstract a multinational firm faced with arm s length limitations on its transfer prices is examined where the limitations are determined by the firm s marginal cost and intracountry prices such a firm is shown to manipulate its production and sales in order to gain a more desirable transfer price comparative static results develop policy implications not found in simpler models which often assume the firm to be constrained by arm s length limits but to be unaware of the effects of its actions on the limits

regulating environmental threats environmental consequences of natural resource exploitation often entail threats of future occurrences of detrimental abrupt events rather than or in addition to inflicting a damage gradually the possibility of abrupt occurrence of climate change related calamities is a case in mind the uncertainty associated with the realization of these threats and their public bad nature complicate the design of optimal economic response we derive a pigouvian hazard tax schedule that implements the socially optimal outcome the tax is based on the expected cost of the hazard generating activities and serves to reduce hazardous emissions well in advance of the catastrophic occurrence a numerical example illustrates possible effects of the proposed regulation scheme implications for climate policy are discussed

debt shifting and ownership structure abstract previous theoretical studies on the debt shifting behavior of multinationals have assumed affiliates of multinationals to be wholly owned we develop a model that allows a multinational firm to determine both the leverage and ownership structure in affiliates endogenously a main finding is that affiliates with minority owners have less debt than wholly owned affiliates and therefore a less tax efficient financing structure this is due to an externality that arises endogenously in our model where costs and benefits of debt shifting are shared asymmetrically between minority and majority owners our findings provide a theory framework for recent empirical findings

market share pioneering advantage a theoretical approach in this paper we present an industry in which a pioneer has entered accumulated capital in the form of goodwill and in his monopoly period has also reduced his cost of production as a result of some form of learning by doing at some later date a newcomer enters his production cost is higher than that of the monopolist at that date however due to diffusion of information the costs of the two firms equate at some future date once the new firm enters the market a duopolistic game begins in which the firms choose prices and investment rates analyzing this game we discover the conditions under which the final market shares no longer depend on the order of entry the initial cost advantage the length of the monopoly period or the length of time it took the newcomer to overcome the pioneer s cost advantage we analyze the speed and pattern of convergence to the final market shares and the capital path of the pioneer in his monopoly period depending on his beliefs concerning the possibility of entry

transfer pricing and decentralized dynamic lot sizing in multistage multiproduct production processes abstract this paper presents the use of a transfer pricing system to coordinate business units in a wagner whitin type model for a decentralized lot sizing problem in a dynamic multistage multiproduct environment the paper includes two major proofs 1 a transfer pricing system enabling optimal decentralized lot sizing is characterized the transfer pricing system can be interpreted as a generalization of the reciprocal method or step down allocation method in cost location accounting and 2 based on a wagner whitin type theorem and the kakutani fixed point theorem it is shown that such a transfer pricing system exists

endogenous discounting and climate policy under risk of abrupt climate change the occurrence hazard is added to the social discount rate as a result the social discount rate 1 increases and 2 turns endogenous to the global warming policy the second effect bears profound policy implications that are magnified by economic growth in particular we find that greenhouse gases ghg emission should be terminated at a finite time so that the ensuing occurrence risk will vanish in the long run due to the public bad nature of the catastrophic risk the second effect is ignored in a competitive allocation and unregulated economic growth will give rise to excessive emissions in the long term the ghg emission paths under the optimal and competitive growth regimes lie at the extreme ends of the range of feasible emissions