vouchers public school response and the role of incentives evidence from florida i introduction the concern over public school performance in the last two decades has pushed public school reform to the forefront of policy debate in the united states school accountability and school choice and especially vouchers are among the most hotly debated instruments of public school reform understanding the behavior and response of public schools facing these initiatives is key to an effective policy design this paper takes an important step forward in that direction by analyzing public school behavior under the florida voucher program the florida voucher program known as the opportunity scholarship program is unique in that it embeds a voucher program within a school accountability system moreover the federal no child left behind nclb act is similar to and largely modeled after the florida program which makes the latter all the more interesting and relevant much of the literature studying the effect of voucher programs on public schools has looked at the effect on student and mean school scores in contrast this study tries to go inside the black box to investigate some of the ways in which schools facing the voucher program behaved in the first 3 years after the program 1 exploiting the institutional details of the florida program during this period it analyzes the incentives built into the system and investigates public school behavior and response facing these incentives the florida voucher program written into law in june 1999 made all students of a school eligible for vouchers to move to private or higher performing public schools if the school got two f grades in a period of 4 years thus the program can be looked upon as a threat of voucher program schools getting an f grade for the first time were directly threatened by vouchers but vouchers were implemented only if they got another f grade in the next 3 years vouchers were always associated with a loss in revenue and also media publicity and visibility moreover the f grade being the lowest performing grade was likely associated with shame and stigma therefore the threatened schools had a strong incentive to try to avoid the second f 2 this paper studies some alternative ways in which the threatened schools responded facing the incentives built into the system under the 1999 florida grading criteria certain percentages of a school s students had to score above some specified cutoffs on the score scale for it to escape the second f therefore the threatened schools had an incentive to focus more on students expected to score just below these high stakes cutoffs rather than equally on all students did this take place in practice second to escape an f grade the schools needed to pass the minimum criteria in only one of the three subject areas of reading math and writing did this induce the threatened schools to concentrate more on one subject rather than equally on all if so which subject area did the schools choose to concentrate on one alternative would be to concentrate on the subject area closest to the cutoff 3 but subject areas differ in the extent of difficulties so it is not immediately obvious that it is easiest to pass the cutoff in the subject area closest to the cutoff rather schools are likely to weigh the extent of difficulties of the different subjects and their distances from the cutoffs and choose the subject that is least costly to pass the cutoff in addition to analyzing the above questions this study also tries to look at a broader picture if the threatened schools concentrated on students expected to score just below the high stakes cutoffs did their improvements come at the expense of higher performing ones using highly disaggregated school level florida data from 1993 through 2002 and a difference in differences analysis as well as a regression discontinuity rd analysis i investigate the above issues the schools that received the first f grade in 1999 were directly threatened and hence constitute my treated group of schools

gentrification and failing schools the unintended consequences of school choice under nclb we examine the housing market and residential mobility changes that occur soon after a title 1 school fails to achieve adequate yearly progress ayp in charlotte north carolina students within attendance zones of failing schools are given priority in lotteries for oversubscribed schools potentially increasing the attractiveness of living in a failing school attendance zone we find that housing prices home buyer income and the probability of attending a nonassigned school increase in the highest quality neighborhoods within failing school attendance zones our results are driven largely by the behavior of new residents

fiscal policy in the new open economy macroeconomics and prospects for fiscal policy coordination ceps working documents are published to give an indication of the work within ceps various research programmes and to stimulate reactions from other experts in the field unless otherwise indicated the views expressed are attributable only to the author in a personal capacity and not to any institution with which she is associated

fiscal policy rules in an overlapping generations model with endogenous labour supply abstract a fiscal policy rule in which taxation is a function of the stock of government debt a wealth tax is usually believed to be effective in providing stability using a discrete time version of the blanchard 1985 debt deficits and finite horizons journal of political economy 93 223 247 overlapping generations model extended to include an endogenous labour supply we show that contrary to the conventional wisdom a wealth tax might not be enough to ensure the existence of a unique well defined steady state we suggest that a government willing to run a positive and sustainable level of debt could use an alternative rule a fiscal taylor rule in which another taxation component that takes in to account the level of the real interest rate is added

optimal fiscal feedback on debt in an economy with nominal rigidities we examine the impact of different degrees of fiscal feedback on debt in an economy with nominal rigidities where monetary policy is optimal we look at the extent to which different degrees of fiscal feedback enhances or detracts from the ability of the monetary authorities to stabilise output and inflation using an objective function derived from utility we find the optimal level of fiscal feedback to be small there is a clear discontinuity in the behaviour of monetary policy and welfare either side of this optimal level as the extent of fiscal feedback increases optimal monetary policy becomes less active because fiscal feedback tends to deflate inflationary shocks however this fiscal stabilisation is less efficient than monetary policy and so welfare declines in contrast if fiscal feedback falls below some critical value either the model becomes indeterminate or optimal monetary policy becomes strongly passive and this passive monetary policy leads to a sharp deterioration in welfare

incentives and responses under no child left behind credible threats and the role of competition abstract nclb mandated the institution of adequate yearly progress ayp objectives and schools are assigned an ayp pass fail based on performance in these objectives ayp fail status is associated with negative publicity and often sanctions using data from wisconsin and alternate regression discontinuity designs i study the incentives and responses of schools that failed ayp once math induced ayp failures showed strong improvements in math while reading induced ayp failures showed marked improvements in reading consistent with incentives these schools showed no positive effect in other high stakes objectives in contrast test participation failures showed no effect in either high stakes reading or math while they showed some evidence of positive though not statistically significant effects in test participation improvements in reading are associated with parallel effects in low stakes language arts possibly due to spillover effects while there is no evidence of effects in low stakes science or social studies nor is there evidence of effects on graduation rates performance in low stakes grades suffered and so did performance in weaker subgroups in spite of their inclusion in ayp computations there is evidence of focus on marginal students around high stakes cutoffs in subject areas ayp failed schools improved in but this did not come at the expense of ends credibility of threat mattered ayp failed schools that faced more competition responded considerably more strongly in the objectives they had incentives in

search profiling with partial knowledge of deterrence consider the choice of a profiling policy where decisions to search for evidence of crime may vary with observable covariates of the persons at risk of search i pose a planning problem whose objective is to minimise the social cost of crime and search the consequences of a search rule depend on the extent to which search deters crime i study the planning problem when the planner has partial knowledge of deterrence i show how the planner can eliminate dominated search rules and how he can use the minimax or minimax regret criterion to choose an undominated rule

fiscal deficits as a source of boom and bust under a common currency abstract we investigate in depth using predominantly analytical rather than numerical methods the mechanisms triggered by a one off debt financed fiscal deficit in a small open economy with a shared currency the economy incorporates staggered price setting and overlapping generations unsurprisingly these cause the impact effect to be a boom in the sense of price inflation and a positive output gap however contrary to what normally happens in new keynesian models without extraneous dynamics the boom later inevitably turns into a bust i e price deflation and a negative output gap therefore in this setting while short run keynesian deficit based fiscal stimulus works it also provokes a medium run backlash in aggregate activity

choosing size of government under ambiguity infrastructure spending and income taxation i examine choice of size of government by a planner who has partial knowledge of population preferences and the productivity of public spending focusing on income tax financed spending for infrastructure i examine scenarios where the planner observes the outcome of a status quo policy and uses various decision criteria to choose policy the analysis shows that the planner can reasonably choose a wide range of spending levels thus a society can rationalise having a small or large government i conclude that to achieve credible conclusions about the desirable size of government we need to improve current knowledge of preferences and the productivity of spending vastly

testing crime and punishment abstract the recent passage of the no child left behind act of 2001 solidified a national trend toward increased student testing for the purpose of evaluating public schools this new environment for schools provides strong incentives for schools to alter the ways in which they deliver educational services this paper investigates whether schools may employ discipline for misbehavior as a tool to bolster aggregate test performance to do so this paper utilizes an extraordinary data set constructed from the school district administrative records of a subset of the school districts in florida during the 4 years surrounding the introduction of a high stakes testing regime it compares the suspensions of students involved in each of the 41 803 incidents in which two students were suspended and where prior test scores for both students are observed while schools always tend to assign harsher punishments to low performing students than to high performing students throughout the year this gap grows substantially during the testing window moreover this testing window related gap is only observed for students in testing grades in summary schools apparently act on the incentive to re shape the testing pool through selective discipline in response to accountability pressures

optimal fiscal policy rules in a monetary union this paper investigates the importance of fiscal policy in providing macroeconomic stabilization in a monetary union we use a microfounded new keynesian model of a monetary union which incorporates persistence in inflation and non ricardian consumers and derive optimal simple rules for fiscal authorities we find that fiscal policy can play an important role in reacting to inflation output and the terms of trade but that not much is lost if national fiscal policy is restricted to react on the one hand to national differences in inflation and on the other hand to either national differences in output or changes in the terms of trade however welfare is reduced if national fiscal policy responds only to output ignoring inflation

the central role of noise in evaluating interventions that use test scores to rank schools many programs reward or penalize schools based on students average performance mean reversion is a potentially serious hindrance to the evaluation of such interventions chile s 900 schools program p 900 allocated resources based on cutoffs in schools mean test scores this paper shows that transitory noise in average scores and mean reversion lead conventional estimation approaches to overstate the impacts of such programs it further shows how a regressiondiscontinuity design can be used to control for reversion biases it concludes that p 900 had significant effects on test score gains albeit much smaller than is widely believed

macroeconomic interdependence under incomplete markets this paper uses a two country flexible price model with overlapping generations of infinitely lived households to study the role of net foreign asset dynamics in the propagation of productivity shocks absence of ricardian equivalence ensures existence of a unique steady state level of net foreign assets to which the economy returns following temporary shocks model dynamics are significantly different from those of a setup in which terms of trade movements perform all the international adjustment and net foreign assets do not move the difference relative to a complete markets economy in which net foreign asset movements play no role in shock transmission is smaller it is amplified if the substitutability across goods rises and if shocks are permanent

optimal monetary policy and financial stability in a non ricardian economy this paper develops a model with discontinuous asset market participation in which all agents are infinitely lived and non ricardian and where heterogeneity among market participants implies financial wealth effects on aggregate consumption derivation of a welfare based loss function shows that financial stability arises as an additional and independent target besides infl ation and output stability evaluation of optimal policy under discretion and commitment reveals that price stability may no longer be optimal even absent inefficient supply shocks some fluctuations in output and infl ation are optimal as long as they reduce financial instability ignoring the heterogeneity among market participants in this economy may lead monetary policy to induce substantially higher welfare losses

accountability incentives and behavior the impact of high stakes testing in the chicago public schools the recent federal education bill no child left behind requires states to test students in grades 3 to 8 each year and to judge school performance on the basis of these test scores while intended to maximize student learning there is little empirical evidence about the effectiveness of such policies this study examines the impact of an accountability policy implemented in the chicago public schools in 1996 1997 using a panel of student level administrative data i find that math and reading achievement increased sharply following the introduction of the accountability policy in comparison to both prior achievement trends in the district and to changes experienced by other large urban districts in the mid west however for younger students the policy did not increase performance on a state administered low stakes exam an item level analysis suggests that the observed achievement gains were driven by increases in test specific skills and student effort i also find that teachers responded strategically to the incentives along a variety of dimensions by increasing special education placements preemptively retaining students and substituting away from low stakes subjects like science and social studies

the role of consumption substitutability in the international transmission of monetary shocks abstract this paper develops a general framework to analyze the impact of monetary shocks in an open economy focusing on the role of the degree of substitutability between goods produced in different countries we extend the contributions by obstfeld and rogoff obstfeld m rogoff k 1995 exchange rate dynamics redux journal of political economy 103 624 659 and corsetti and pesenti corsetti g pesenti p 1997 welfare and macroeconomic interdependence nber working paper 6307 to show that the welfare impact differs across countries when the degree of substitutability between goods produced in different countries is different from the degree of substitutability between goods produced in the same country a shock that would be beneficial in a closed economy can have an adverse beggar thyself effect in the country where it takes place or an adverse beggar thy neighbor effect on its neighbor

deficit reduction short term pain for long term gain abstract the paper evaluates the costs and benefits of fiscal consolidation using simulations based on the imfs global dynamic general equilibrium model gimf over the longer run well targeted permanent reductions in budget deficits can lead to a considerable increase in both the growth rate and the level of output the gains may be enhanced by shifting some of the tax burden from incomes to consumption in the short run credibility plays a crucial role in determining the size of initial output losses global current account imbalances would be significantly reduced if budget consolidation was larger in countries with current account deficits

simple versus optimal rules as guides to policy this paper compares the performance of different policy rules our comparisons focus on simple feedback rules versus rules which are optimal given knowledge of the correct economic structure and the appropriate loss function for the policymaker first we compare rule performance when the correct model is not known second we compare rule performance with respect to the frequency specific behavior for variables of interest taken as a whole our results indicate how the case for a model specific optimal rule can break down when one relaxes the assumption that the true model is known as well as the assumption that the appropriate loss function is known links are made to the literature on monetary policy

the new open economy macroeconomics of government debt in this paper we introduce an overlapping generations structure of the blanchard type in a new open economy macroeconomics model this allows us to study a wider range ofscal shocks compared to the traditional mundell fleming and to the baseline redux models one important policy implication of our model is that the tax cut imple mented in the us in 2001 might have contributed to the appreciation of the dollar vis a vis the euro in contrast the imposition ofscal constraint such as the golden rule proposed by the uk government can have opposite exchange rate e ects

where does voucher funding go how large scale subsidy programs affect private school revenue enrollment and prices using a new dataset constructed from nonprofit tax returns this paper explores how vouchers and other large scale programs subsidizing private school attendance have affected the fiscal outcomes of private schools and the affordability of a private education we find that subsidy programs created a large transfer of public funding to private schools suggesting that every dollar of funding increased revenue by a dollar or more turning to the incidence of subsidies and the impact of subsidies on enrollment our findings depend on the type of program introduced programs that restrict eligibility to certain groups of students create large enrollment gains but no change in price while programs that offer unrestricted subsidies lead to price increases but no change in enrollment we calculate elasticities of demand and supply for private schools and discuss welfare effects

the 2009 lawrence r klein lecture diversified treatment under ambiguity this article develops a broad theme about treatment under ambiguity through study of a particular decision criterion the broad theme is that a planner may want to cope with ambiguity by diversification assigning observationally identical persons to different treatments study of the minimax regret mr criterion substantiates the theme the article significantly extends my earlier analysis of one period planning with an individualistic treatment and a linear welfare function i show that mr treatment allocations are fractional in a large class of planning problems with nonlinear welfare functions interacting treatments learning and noncooperative aspects

on the failure of purchasing power parity for bilateral exchange rates after 1973 point estimates suggest mean reversion in real exchange rates however it still remains uncomfortable that models without any mean reversion are often compatible with data from the floating period studies with data over longer periods find mean reversion but at the cost of mixing in data from earlier exchange rate arrangements pooling the floating period data potentially mixes country pairs with and without mean reversion we examine tests for mean reversion for individual country pairs where greater power against close alternatives is gained through modeling other economic variables with the real exchange rate by increasing the power of the tests we find strong evidence of mean reversion

the impact of fiscal incentives on student disability rates abstract in this paper i estimate the elasticity of student disability rates with respect to the generosity of state reimbursements the classification response is identified from policy induced variation in the amount of state aid generated by serving a disabled student across local school districts in texas from 1991 1992 through 1996 1997 my central estimates imply that fiscal incentives can explain nearly 40 of the recent growth in student disability rates in texas the magnitude of the institutional response varies by district size and enrollment concentration student race ethnicity and the level of fiscal constraint

useful government spending direct crowding out and fiscal policy interdependence this paper introduces perfect substitutability between private and public consumption in a dynamic open economy with imperfect competition and nominal rigidities this implies a direct crowding out effect that generalising to the two country case some well known properties of a closed economy tends to reduce consumption following both domestic and foreign expansions a less expected result is that sub stitutability has a positive effect on the short run output spillover we also show that if we modify the model to allow for home bias in government spending temporary fiscal expansions display a quasi neutrality property

net foreign assets and the exchange rate redux revived abstract we revisit obstfeld and rogoff s 1995 results on exchange rate dynamics in a two country monetary model with incomplete asset markets stationary net foreign assets and endogenous monetary policy the nominal exchange rate exhibits a unit root under flexible prices it also depends on the stock of real net foreign assets with sticky prices the exchange rate depends on the past gdp differential along with net foreign assets endogenous monetary policy and asset dynamics have consequences for exchange rate overshooting a persistent relative productivity shock results in delayed overshooting under both flexible and sticky prices a persistent relative interest rate shock generates undershooting under flexible prices

robustness of simple menus of contracts in cost based procurement abstract we consider a model of cost based procurement in which the principal faces knightian uncertainty about the agent s preferences for cost reduction we show that a particularly simple incentive scheme a menu comprising a fixed price contract and a cost reimbursement contract minimizes the maximum expected payment where this maximum is taken over the set of possible agent preferences for some parameters of the problem a range of alternative incentive schemes also satisfy this criterion we show that the simple incentive scheme is not weakly dominated by any of the alternatives there does not exist an alternative mechanism for which the expected payment is no higher for all realizations of the agent s preferences and strictly lower for some realization

fiscal stabilization with partial exchange rate pass through this paper examines the role of fiscal stabilization policy in a two country framework that allows for a general degree of exchange rate pass through i derive analytical solutions for optimal monetary and fiscal policy which are shown to depend on the degree of passthrough in the case of partial pass through an optimizing policy maker uses counter cyclical fiscal stabilization in addition to monetary stabilization however in the extreme cases of complete or zero pass through the fiscal stabilization instrument is not employed there is also no additional gain from the fiscal instrument in the case of coordination between the two countries these results are due to the specific way the optimal fiscal policy rule affects marginal costs rather than being a substitute for monetary policy fiscal policy complements it by increasing the correlation of the marginal cost terms within and across countries this in turn makes monetary policy more effective at stabilizing them

exchange rate determination the role of factor price rigidities and nontradeables this paper introduces factor labor markets into the intertemporal monetary model of obstfeld and rogoff and combines this richer market structure with a new utility independent representation of nontradeables this allows us to explore the international monetary transmission mechanism for factor price wage rigidities under different degrees of macroeconomic openness factor price rigidities imply similar properties for the international transmission mechanism as domestic producer price rigidities nontradeables give raise to interesting new effects under asymmetric monetary shocks they create short run ppp deviations increase exchange rate volatility relative to price level volatility and reduce positive consumption and negative output comovements 2000 elsevier science b v all rights reserved

food for thought the effects of school accountability plans on school nutrition abstract with the passage of the no child left behind act of 2001 school accountability is now federal law continuing the recent trend of states implementing significant accountability systems for schools this paper studies an unusual yet powerful school response to accountability systems using disaggregated school lunch menus from a random sample of school districts in virginia we find that schools threatened with accountability sanctions increase the caloric content of their lunches on testing days in an apparent attempt to boost short term student cognitive performance moreover we find that the schools that responded the most along these dimensions experienced the greatest improvements in standardized test scores

welfare and macroeconomic interdependence we develop a baseline model of monetary and fiscal transmission in interdependent economies the welfare effects of expansionary policies are related to monopolistic supply in production and monopoly power of a country in trade an unanticipated exchange rate depreciation can be beggar thyself rather than beggar thy neighbor as gains in domestic output are offset by deteriorating terms of trade smaller and more open economies are more prone to suffer from inflationary shocks larger economies benefit from moderate demand led expansions but may be worse off if policy makers attempt to close the output gap fiscal shocks are generally beggar thy neighbor in the long run in the short run they raise domestic demand at given terms of trade thus reducing the welfare benefits from monetary expansions analytical tractability makes our model uniquely suitable as a starting point to approach the recent new open economy macroeconomic literature

fiscal consolidation under fixed exchange rates abstract we present the fixed exchange rate version of the obstfeld and rogoff model and analyze the international transmission of fiscal policy shocks the welfare effects of an unanticipated contraction in government expenditure in the home country are shown to depend crucially on the way in which world money stock is set if home authorities alone are responsible for pegging the exchange rate a fiscal adjustment leads to a decrease in the real interest rate stimulates private consumption and limits the contraction in world output compared with a situation in which a cooperative scheme is implemented the model is then used to propose a new interpretation of recent events in the eu countries that have enacted restrictive fiscal policies while pegging their currencies to the dm

the macroeconomic effects of monetary and fiscal policy in a small open economy does the exchange rate regime matter abstract this paper develops a small open economy model in the spirit of obstfeld and rogoff 1995 the introduction of endogenous traded sector output unlocks current account and real exchange rate effects within this framework where specific consideration is given to the case with fixed but adjustable parities exchange rate devaluation generates similar qualitative effects as a money supply expansion under floating rates output and external effects of government spending shocks are broadly consistent with the adjusted basic non micro founded mundell and fleming mf framework but differ in significant ways from the baseline mf model contrary to the textbook mf model a government expenditure shock depreciates the nominal exchange rate and generates real effects under the fixed rate system

school vouchers a survey of the economics literature we review the theoretical computational and empirical research on school vouchers with a focus on the latter our assessment is that the evidence to date is not sufficient to warrant recommending that vouchers be adopted on a widespread basis however multiple positive findings support continued exploration specifically the empirical research on small scale programs does not suggest that awarding students a voucher is a systematically reliable way to improve educational outcomes and some detrimental effects have been found nevertheless in some settings or for some subgroups or outcomes vouchers can have a substantial positive effect on those who use them studies of large scale voucher programs find student sorting as a result of their implementation although of varying magnitude evidence on both small scale and large scale programs suggests that competition induced by vouchers leads public schools to improve moreover research is making progress on understanding how vouchers may be designed to limit adverse effects from sorting while preserving positive effects related to competition finally our sense is that work originating in a single case e g a given country or in a single research approach e g experimental designs will not provide a full understanding of voucher effects fairly wide ranging empirical and theoretical work will be necessary to make progress

how accountability pressure on failing schools affects student achievement abstract although an emerging body of evidence has shown that the threat of sanctions on low performing schools can raise student test scores in the short run the extent to which these test score improvements are due to schools manipulation of the accountability system has remained uncertain in this paper i provide two new strands of evidence to evaluate the relative importance of educational reforms and gaming behavior in generating test score gains by threatened schools first using a regression discontinuity design that exploits florida s system of imposing sanction threats on the basis of a cutoff level of performance i estimate medium run effects on student test scores from having attended a threatened elementary school threat induced math improvements from elementary school largely persist at least through the first 1 to 2 years of middle school while evidence for persistence of reading improvements is less consistent second i analyze the effects of sanction threats on various features of educational production and i find that sanction threats raise school spending on instructional technology curricular development and teacher training both strands of evidence are consistent with a predominant role for educational reforms in generating test score gains by threatened schools

can increasing private school participation and monetary loss in a voucher program affect public school performance evidence from milwaukee abstract the milwaukee voucher program as implemented in 1990 allowed only non sectarian private schools to participate in the program following a wisconsin supreme court ruling the program saw a major shift and entered into its second phase when religious private schools were allowed to participate for the first time in 1998 this led to more than a three fold increase in the number of private schools and almost a four fold increase in the number of choice students moreover due to some changes in funding provisions the revenue loss per student from vouchers increased in the second phase of the program this paper analyzes the impacts of increase in competition brought about by these changes on public school performance in milwaukee using data from 1987 to 2002 and a difference in differences estimation strategy in trends the paper finds that these changes have led to an improvement of the public schools in the second phase of the program as compared to the first phase the results are robust to alternative samples and specifications and survive several sensitivity checks including correcting for mean reversion the findings imply that voucher design matters and choice of parameters in a voucher program is crucial as far as impacts on public school incentives and performance are concerned

exchange rate economics is always and everywhere controversial abstractthis article reviews the major developments in the recent literature on exchange rate economics it is argued that the link between the exchange rate and economic fundamentals is breaking new ground evidence indicates that alternative analytical frameworks such as the new open economy macroeconomics and exchange rate arrangements such as the euro have their theoretical and analytical elegance but are proving empirically very difficult to implement the role of methodological advances and alternative fundamental instruments such as world commodity prices is also highlighted

optimal income taxation and migration a world welfare point of view abstract this paper considers a world in which a distortionary income tax must be employed to raise and redistribute revenue the optimal taxation of emigrants relative to those left behind is examined under the objective of world social welfare maximization when tastes for consumption and labor do not depend directly on residence the optimal tax system induces individuals to reside where the marginal products of their chosen labor supplies are highest this paper also proves the existence of an optimal tax system under which each individual resides where he pays the greatest tax this result holds even when tastes are allowed to vary with residence in an interesting way

the importance of composition of fiscal policy evidence from different exchange rate regimes abstract we study the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policies in an open economy we emphasize two transmission mechanisms the cost channel by which wage government spending and labor taxes raise the real wage firms must pay and the exchange rate channel by which the nominal exchange rate shifts induced by fiscal policy have real effects if some prices and wages are sticky the latter channel implies that changes in wage government spending or in labor taxation should have different effects under flexible than under fixed exchange rates in a 1964 93 panel of oecd countries we find significant evidence for both channels moreover we find that the real product wage and profitability are more responsive than quantities employment and output to fiscal policy innovations

racial profiling fairness and effectiveness of policing citizens of two groups may engage in crime depending on their legal earning opportunities and on the probability of being audited police audit citizens police behavior is fair if both groups are policed with the same intensity we provide exact conditions under which forcing the police to behave more fairly reduces the total amount of crime these conditions are expressed as constraints on the quantile quantile plot of the distributions of legal earning opportunities in the two groups we also investigate the definition of fairness when the cost of being searched reflects the stigma of being singled out by police

competitive lending with partial knowledge of loan repayment some positive and normative analysis we study a credit market where lenders with partial knowledge of repayment use one of several criteria to make lending decisions supposing that a public authority wants to maximize the social return to borrowing we study interventions that manipulate the return on the safe asset or guarantee a minimum loan return manipulating the return on the safe asset is effective if lender beliefs about the return to lending are not too pessimistic relative to those of the authority guaranteeing a minimum return is effective if lender beliefs are not too optimistic relative to those of the authority

the promise and pitfalls of using imprecise school accountability measures in recent years most states have constructed elaborate accountability systems using school level test scores however because the median elementary school contains only 69 children per grade level such measures are quite imprecise we evaluate the implications for school accountability systems for instance rewards or sanctions for schools with scores at either extreme primarily affect small schools and provide weak incentives to large ones nevertheless we conclude that accountability systems may be worthwhile even in states with aggressive financial incentives the marginal reward to schools for raising student performance is a small fraction of the potential labor market value for students

the new open economy macroeconomics a survey since the 1995 publication of obsteld and rogoff s redux model there has been an outpouring of research on open economy dynamic general equilibrium models that incorporate imperfect competition and nominal rigidities this paper offers an interim survey of this recent literature 2001 elsevier science b v all rights reserved

the essential economics of threshold based incentives theory estimation and evidence from the western states 100 abstract many public and private entities utilize incentive systems in which improvements in measured performance are rewarded only when the agent crosses some pre specified threshold this paper comprehensively analyzes the effects of these incentive systems on effort the net benefits of effort and the accuracy of information about agents performance and lays out methods for estimating each these methods are then used to reveal the motivations physiological limits and racing strategy of ultramarathoners trying to complete a one hundred mile race in under twenty four hours

optimal search profiling with linear deterrence i examine here an aspect of law enforcement that has recently been the subject of debate this is the choice of a profiling policy wherein decisions to search for evidence of crime may vary with observable covariates of the persons at risk of being searched policies that make search rates vary with personal attributes are variously defended as essential to effective law enforcement and denounced as unfair to classes of persons subjected to relatively high search rates variation of search rates by race has been particularly controversial see e g john knowles et al 2001 nicola persico 2002 jeff dominitz 2003 whereas recent research on profiling has sought to define and detect racial discrimination my concern is to understand how a social planner might choose a profiling policy this paper studies optimal profiling in a simple illustrative setting in related work manski 2004 i consider how a planner might reasonably behave when he does not possess all of the information needed to determine an optimal policy section i poses a utilitarian planning problem whose objective is to minimize the social cost of crime and search search is costly per se and search that reveals a crime entails costs for punishment of offenders search is beneficial to the extent that it deters or prevents crime deterrence is expressed through the offense function which describes how the offense rate of persons with given covariates varies with the search rate applied to these persons prevention occurs when search prevents an offense from causing social harm section ii derives the optimal profiling policy in the tractable case where search deters crime linearly one might think that search should focus on the most crime prone segments of the population however this is not necessarily the case if persons differ in the extent to which search deters crime it may be optimal to search a less crime prone group and not to search a more crime prone group if members of the former group are deterrable and those in the latter group are not sections i and ii consider ex ante search which apprehends offenders before their offenses cause social harm section iii performs parallel analysis for ex post search which apprehends offenders after completion of their offenses whereas ex ante search both deters and prevents crime ex post search only deters the two types of search have different implications for profiling policy although detection of discrimination is not my direct concern the findings reported here do have implications for that inferential problem the models studied in knowles et al 2001 and persico 2002 imply that in the absence of discrimination optimal profiling must equalize the offense rates of persons with different covariates provided that such persons are searched at all the present model differs from theirs and it does not produce their conclusion perhaps the most important difference is in the objective functions assumed for the agencies that make profiling policy they assume that police on the street aim to maximize the probability of successful searches minus the cost of performing searches i assume that a planner wants to minimize a social cost function with three components a the harm caused by completed offenses b the cost of punishing offenders who are apprehended and c the cost of performing searches

do accountability and voucher threats improve low performing schools abstract we study the effects of the threat of vouchers and stigma in florida on the performance of low performing schools estimates of the change in raw test scores from the first year of the reform are consistent with the early results which claimed large improvements associated with the threat of vouchers however we also find that much of this estimated effect may be due to other factors the relative gains in reading are largely explained by changing student characteristics and the gains in math though larger appear limited to the high stakes grade we also find some evidence that these improvements were due more to the stigma of receiving the low grade rather than the threat of vouchers

disruption versus tiebout improvement the costs and benefits of switching schools most students change schools at some point in their academic careers but some change very frequently and some schools experience a great deal of turnover while many argue that mobility harms students economists tend to emphasize tiebout type moves to procure better school quality sq this paper disentangles the disruption effects of moves from changes in sq importantly it identifies the negative externality movers impose on other students student turnover is shown to entail a substantial cost for movers and non movers alike this cost appears to be larger for lower income and minority students who typically attend much higher turnover schools

the effects of discretionary fiscal policy on macroeconomic aggregates a reappraisal fiscal stimuli to recover a cascade of academic and layman articles debate the effectiveness of fiscal policy in stimulating the economy backed up by different economic models and empirical support this essay surveys the theoretical predictions and recent empirical vector autoregression var evidence on the short run effects of discretionary fiscal policy on macroeconomic aggregates

debt deficits and finite horizons the stochastic case abstract we introduce aggregate uncertainty and complete markets into blanchard s 1985 perpetual youth model we derive a simple expression for the pricing kernel that can be used to close a variety of equilibrium models in which the set of agents changes over time

nonlinear trends in real exchange rates a panel unit root test approach abstract we analyze the possibility of nonlinear trend stationarity as the alternative to unit roots in 23 oecd real exchange rates 1974 1998 by adding nonlinear time terms to the cips panel unit root test of pesaran 2007 we follow a thorough bootstrapping approach and propose a technique to adjust statistical significance for the use of multiple tests over several time trend orders the unit root null that all real exchange rates have unit roots is rejected at better than the 0 05 level bootstrapped results from a procedure of chortareas and kapetanios 2009 suggest that the hypothesis that all are stationary is reasonable we argue that nonlinear trend stationarity is the most likely alternative hypothesis for at least some of the real exchange rates because 1 the strongest cips rejection occurs when quadratic trends are specified 2 nonlinear time terms are statistically significant at the 0 10 level 3 the actual cips statistics are more consistent with cips sampling distributions from bootstrapped nonlinear trend stationary processes than from linear trend or mean stationary processes

teaching to the rating school accountability and the distribution of student achievement this paper examines whether minimum competency school accountability systems such as those created under no child left behind influence the distribution of student achievement because school ratings in these systems only incorporate students test scores via pass rates this type of system increases incentives for schools to improve the performance of students who are on the margin of passing but does not increase short run incentives for schools to improve other students performance using student level panel data from texas during the 1990 s i explicitly calculate schools short run incentives to improve various students expected performance and i find that schools do respond to these incentives students perform better than expected when their test score is particularly important for their schools accountability rating also low achieving students perform better than expected in math when many of their classmates math scores are important for the schools rating while relatively high achieving students do not perform better distributional effects appear to be related to broad changes in resources or instruction as well as narrowly tailored attempts to improve the performance of specific students

productivity shocks stabilization policies and the dynamics of net foreign assets in this paper we investigate the role of macroeconomic stabilization policies for the international transmission of productivity shocks and their eects on the external sector we develop a two country stochastic dynamic new keynesian perpetual youth model of the business cycle with incomplete international nancial markets our olg structure implies stationary net foreign asset dynamics and allows for a thorough analysis of the interaction of monetary policy with non balanced budget scal policy we derive the dynamic and cyclical properties of scal decit feedback rules and their implications for net foreign assets dynamics our results imply that the degree of scal discipline i e the extent to which the scal rule responds to debt dynamics is crucial for the dynamics of net foreign assets we show that under a counter cyclical scal rule with low

fiscal deficits and current account deficits abstract recent fiscal stimulus packages depend for their effectiveness on the assumption of non ricardian savings behavior we show that under the same assumption higher fiscal deficits can have problematic implications if they turn out to be permanent first if they occur in large countries they significantly raise the world real interest rate second they cause a short run current account deterioration equal to around 50 of the fiscal deficit deterioration third the longer run current account deterioration equals almost 75 for a large economy such as the united states and almost 100 for a small open economy