bubbles and experience an experiment we investigate the occurrence of bubble crash pricing patterns in laboratory financial markets with a mixture of experienced and inexperienced traders we find that even with a minority of experienced traders bubbles are substantially abated

speculative investor behavior and learning as traders learn about the true distribution of some asset s dividends a speculative premium occurs as each trader anticipates the possibility of reselling the asset to another trader before complete learning has occurred small differences in prior beliefs lead to large speculative premiums during the learning process this phenomenon helps explain a paradox concerning the pricing of initial public offerings the result casts light on the significance of the common prior assumption in economic models

who inflates the bubble forecasters and traders in experimental asset markets abstract we use a laboratory experiment to study how forecasting contributes to mispricing in the baseline we assign both the task of forecasting and the task of trading to the same subject in treatment samepay we separate these tasks and assign them to two different subjects who share the profits from trade in treatment accuracy we pay forecasters according to the accuracy of their forecasts we find that the separation of tasks induces some mispricing even worse paying for accuracy reduces attention towards the fundamental value and generates major and persistent mispricing as well as trend extrapolation we infer that it can be risky to incentivize only forecasting accuracy and not give forecasters the right skin in the game our findings are informative for tracing the sources of mispricing as well as for enhancing financial stability

the impact of different incentive schemes on asset prices abstract how people are incentivized is one of the main drivers of how they behave in laboratory asset markets we evaluate the impact of four trader incentive bonus bonus with cap linear and penalty on asset prices and trader behavior we find that i an asset with identical expected dividend shows price levels which differ by more than 100 percent depending on the incentive scheme subjects face in particular prices of markets populated by subjects with bonus incentives show the highest prices whereas those with penalty like incentivized subjects exhibit the lowest ii however subjects act approximately rational as different incentives generate different optimal price levels iii in markets where different subjects have different incentive schemes we find that those with bonus incentives exhibit a riskier investment behavior and prefer the riskier asset whereas subjects with penalty incentives invest conservatively and mainly hold cash since we find no difference in risk attitude of subjects prior to the experiment differences in investment behavior are induced by the applied incentives our results highlight that incentives on financial markets have a huge impact on asset prices and investment behavior

thar she bursts reducing confusion reduces bubbles to explore why bubbles frequently emerge in the experimental asset market model of smith suchanek and williams 1988 we vary the fundamental value process constant or declining and the cash to asset value ratio constant or increasing we observe high mispricing in treatments with a declining fundamental value while overvaluation emerges when coupled with an increasing c a ratio a questionnaire reveals that the declining fundamental value process confuses subjects as they expect the fundamental value to stay constant running the experiment with a different context stocks of a depletable gold mine instead of stocks significantly reduces mispricing and overvaluation as it reduces confusion jel c91 d14 g11 g12

uniqueness of steady states in models with overlapping generations in this paper we examine the likelihood of multiple real steady states in deterministic exchange economies with overlapping generations there is a single good and a single agent per generation with constant relative risk aversion expected utility in order to test for multiple equilibria we employ methods from computational algebraic geometry in our examples we find that multiplicity becomes less likely as the life span of agents increases but becomes more likely as the coefficient of risk aversion increases for moderate values of risk aversion multiplicity is very unlikely when agents live for five or more periods jel c61 c63 d50 d58

it is not just confusion strategic uncertainty in an experimental asset market to what extent is the observed mispricing in experimental asset markets caused by strategic uncertainty and by confusion we address this question by comparing subjects initial price forecasts in two market environments one with six human traders and the other with one human and five computer traders we find that both strategic uncertainty and confusion contribute equally to the median initial forecast deviation from the fundamental value the effect of strategic uncertainty is greater for subjects with a perfect score in the cognitive reflection test and it is not significant for those with low scores

efficiency wages and the business cycle puzzle abstract the main thrust of this work is to open the real business cycle rbc methodology to non walrasian considerations and reciprocally to submit some non walrasian models to the discipline of the rbc approach in doing so we provide a first rbc model with involuntary unemployment and a suboptimal equilibrium path we also demonstrate the promise and difficulty of resolving the business cycle puzzle by appealing to quantity rationing in the labor market

verifying competitive equilibria in dynamic economies in this paper i examine e equilibria of stationary dynamic economies with heterogeneous agents and possibly incomplete financial markets i give a simple example to show that even for arbitrarily small e 0 allocation and prices can be far away from exact equilibrium allocations and prices that is errors in market clearing or individuals optimality conditions do not provide enough information to assess the quality of an approximation i derive a sufficient condition for an e equilibrium to be close to an exact equilibrium if the economic fundamentals are semi algebraic one can verify computationally whether this condition holds the condition can be interpreted economically as a robustness requirement on the set of e equilibria which form a neighbourhood of the computed approximation i illustrate the main result and the computational method using an infinite horizon economy with overlapping generations and incomplete financial markets copyright 2011 oxford university press

efficiency wage models of unemployment one view h lorne carmichael persistent wage rigidity and involuntary unemployment appear to be recurrent problems in most economies what could be preventing the wage adjustment necessary to clear the labor market many recent papers claim to have found the answer in efficiency wage models this paper surveys this literature and attempts to evaluate its accomplishments it concludes that the efficiency wage models fail to explain wage rigidity or persistent involuntary unemployment persistent involuntary unemployment of workers is a recurrent problem in labor markets all over the world unemployed workers seem unable to find work even though they are willing to accept lower wages than those being paid employed workers with similar skills what could be preventing wages from adjusting to clear these markets many recent papers known collectively as the efficiency wage literature now claim to have the answer this paper will survey the efficiency wage literature and critically evaluate some of its accomplishments efficiency wage models have already been examined by yellen 1984 katz 1986 and stiglitz 1987 and have received generally favorable reviews this paper is more critical its overall conclusion is that efficiency wage models provide some useful insights into the workings of the labor market but they do not provide a satisfactory account of wage rigidity or involuntary unemployment there are at least five separate versions of the efficiency wage model they share a common structure however and this is outlined in the first section of the paper this section also attempts to relate efficiency wage models to other recent models of unemployment section ii examines and criticizes the different approaches in detail section iii evaluates the achievements of this approach and suggests some directions for future work i a general efficiency wage model efficiency wage models as the name suggests are first of all models of wages they generate unemployment by showing that firms will sometimes want to set wages at non market clearing levels it is useful to begin therefore by reviewing how wages and employment are determined in some related models in a perfectly competitive labor market the wage for each type of labor is adjusted constantly to maintain equality of supply and demand overall employment fluctuates in response to demand changes as workers move up and down their labor supply curves unemployment is voluntary in that anyone who is not working prefers that state to employment at the going wage for people of his skills as well the value of a worker s marginal product is equal to the marginal value of his leisure so there are no unexploited wage bargains between unemployed workers and firms this model is successful in predicting the long term response of wages to shifts in demand and supply but it is clear that in the short run its depiction of voluntary unemployment and flexible wages is unrealistic a natural way to generate more realism is to assume that wages are inflexible in the short run in this case a reduction in demand away from a long run equilibrium will lead to rationing of jobs by employers as they attempt to stay on their labor demand curves the unemployment here is involuntary in that the unemployed would prefer to be working at the going wage and is inefficient in that there are lost gains from trade between these workers and firms the weakness of this model is that it is silent about the mechanism that keeps wages rigid unemployed workers who offer to work for less than the fixed wage ought to find work the early implicit contract models of azariadis 1975 baily 1974 and gordon 1974 provide one explanation for wage rigidity these models introduced the idea that wages can do more than just clear the market for labor wages in an implicit contract model are used to shift the risk generated by uncertain output market conditions from risk averse workers to the risk neutral firm

bubbles crashes and endogenous expectations in experimental spot asset markets1 spot asset trading is studied in an environment in which all investors receive the same dividend from a known probability distribution at the end of each of t 15 or 30 trading periods fourteen of twenty two experiments exhibit price bubbles followed by crashes relative to intrinsic dividend value when traders are experienced this reduces but does not eliminate the probability of a bubble the regression of changes in mean price on lagged excess bids number of bids minus the number of offers in the previous period p pt a f b 1 o l supports the hypothesis that a e d the one period expected value of the dividend and that f 0 where excess bids is a surrogate measure of excess demand arising from homegrown capital gains losses expectations thus when bt 1 o goes to zero we have convergence to rational expectations in the sense of fama 1970 that arbitrage becomes unprofitable the observed bubble phenomenon can also be interpreted as a form of temporary myopia tirole 1982 from which agents learn that capital gains expectations are only temporarily sustainable ultimately inducing common expectations or priors tirole 1982 four of twenty six experiments all using experienced subjects yield outcomes that appear to the chart s eye to converge early to rational expectations although even in these cases we get 0 and small price fluctuations of a few cents that invite scalping

traders expectations in asset markets experimental evidence we elicit traders predictions of future price trajectories in repeated experimental markets for a 15 period lived asset we find that individuals beliefs about prices are adaptive and primarily based on past trends in the current and previous markets in which they have participated most traders do not anticipate market downturns the first time they participate in a market and when experienced they typically overestimate the time remaining before market peaks and downturns occur when prices deviate from fundamental values belief data are informative to an observer in predicting the direction of future price movements and the timing of market peaks

how do experienced traders respond to inflows of inexperienced traders an experimental analysis we conducted asset market experiments where one experienced subject interacts with five inexperienced subjects to investigate how experienced subjects change their price forecasts and trading behavior when faced with strategic uncertainty caused by inflows of inexperienced subjects only half the experienced subjects initially forecasted prices deviating more from the fundamental values in the market with five inexperienced subjects than in the final round of the experiment in which they had previously participated furthermore the majority of our experienced subjects did not change their trading behavior many experienced subjects act as price stabilizers when the inflow of inexperienced subjects is not associated with other changes in market conditions

price bubbles and crashes in experimental call markets abstract price bubbles relative to intrinsic dividend value are observed using a call market trading institution market prices tend to track intrinsic value only when the same group of highly experienced traders participate in three consecutive 15 round markets

stock market participation and endogenous boom bust dynamics abstract we develop a model in which stock market participation depends on current market movements and on the fundamental state of the market our model explains empirical and experimental evidence according to which increasing decreasing stock market participation amplifies bubbles crashes

self enforcing contracts shirking and life cycle incentives he labor market is a rich and complicated place when a worker takes a job he expects to earn a wage but will also care about rates of wage growth fringe benefits levels of risk retirement practices pensions promotion and layoff rules seniority rights and grievance procedures in return the worker must give up some time but he is also asked to upgrade his skills train other workers provide effort and ideas and defer to authority in questions of how his time is spent great changes are occurring in the way labor market institutions such as these are modelled central to the new approach is the concept of a self enforcing implicit contract this is the latest in a series of variations on the ideas of azariadis 1975 baily 1974 and gordon 1974 and is one of the more exciting new developments in the theory of labor markets this essay will outline this approach and evaluate some of its accomplishments the ideas will be presented in the context of an incentive model that is of some independent interest the model was introduced by becker and stigler 1974 and was extended by lazear 1979 to account for wage growth and mandatory retirement in these papers the workers retire at a fixed age lending the name life cycle incentives to the approach more recently shapiro and stiglitz 1984 have used a version without a fixed retirement date to account for unemployment this version is often called the shirking model these models have generated some controversy but much of it can be resolved when the models are presented in the framework of self enforcing contracts in fact this simple incentive model can do even more it can provide a rationale for competitive hierarchies where firms place their workers in competition with

the chinese warrants bubble in 2005 2008 over a dozen put warrants traded in china went so deep out of the money that they were almost certain to expire worthless nonetheless each warrant was traded more than three times each day at substantially inflated prices this bubble is unique in that the underlying stock prices make warrant fundamentals publicly observable and that warrants have predetermined finite maturities this sample allows us to examine a set of bubble theories in particular our analysis highlights the joint effects of short sales constraints and heterogeneous beliefs in driving bubbles and confirms several key findings of the experimental bubble literature jel g12 g13 o16 p34

a quantitative easing experiment abstract we experimentally investigate the effect of a central bank buying bonds for cash in a quantitative easing qe operation in our experiment the bonds are perfect substitutes for cash and have a constant fundamental value which is not affected by qe in the rational expectations equilibrium we find that qe raises bond prices above those in the benchmark treatment without qe subjects in the benchmark treatment learned to trade the bonds at their fundamental value but those in treatments with qe became more convinced after repeated exposure to the same treatment that qe boosts bond prices this suggests the possibility of a behavioural channel for the observed effects of actual qe operations on bond yields

behavioral uncertainty and the dynamics of traders confidence in their price forecasts by how much does the presence of behavioral uncertainty in an experimental asset market reduce subjects confidence in their price forecasts an incentivized interval forecast elicitation method is employed to answer this question each market consists of six traders and the value of dividends is known two treatments are considered six human traders 6h and one human interacting with five computer traders whose behavior is known 1h5c we find that while the deviation of the initial price forecasts from fundamental value is smaller in the 1h5c treatment than in the 6h treatment albeit not statistically significantly the average confidence regarding the forecasts is not we further analyze the relationships between subjects confidence in their forecasts and their trading behavior as well as their trading performance in the 6h treatment while subjects high confidence in their short term forecasts shows a negative correlation with their trading performance high confidence in their long term forecasts shows a positive correlation with trading performance

segmented labour markets and the estimation of wage functions this paper uses a stratified random sample of private sector employees to estimate wage equations for both the male labour market as a whole and six segments of the labour market segement which are defined with respect to the industry and size characteristics of the employing establishmen highly conventional results are obtained when wage equations are estimated for the male labour market as a whole or within two segements comprising almost half the survey population however one can reject conclusively the hypothesis that the same estimating equation is appropriate for modelling wage determination in all segments and if a human capital hk model is within segements tested against more appropriate alternative hypotheses for wage determination using the davidson and mackinnon 1981 methodology for the testing of non nested hypotheses the conclusion is that one should reject the hk specification and not reject the alternative it is therefore argued that the disaggregation of labour market dat

to see is to believe common expectations in experimental asset markets abstract we experimentally manipulate agents information regarding the rationality of others in a setting in which previous studies have found irrationality to be present namely the asset market experiments introduced by smith et al 1988 recent studies suggest that mispricing in such markets may be an artefact of confusion which can be reduced by training subjects to understand the diminishing fundamental value we reconsider this view and propose that when it is made public knowledge that training has occurred this may also reduce uncertainty over the behavior of others and facilitate the formation of common expectations our design disentangles the direct effect of training from the indirect effect of its public knowledge and our results demonstrate a distinct and statistically significant effect of public knowledge over and above that of training alone

the inflow effect trader inflow and price efficiency abstract we investigate the impact of cash and trader inflow on price efficiency in multi period experimental asset markets implementing eight treatments with 672 subjects we find that i the joint inflow of cash and traders triggers strong overvaluation and massive price run ups inflow effect remarkably the effect occurs in almost all of the 30 markets with joint cash and trader inflow and is very robust the effect even prevails in markets with complete and symmetric fundamental information we further show that ii in treatments with the joint inflow of cash and traders prices crash to fundamentals towards maturity of the asset the analysis of traders beliefs reveals that iii despite fundamental values staying constant beliefs about fundamentals co move with upwardly trending prices finally we report a speculative motive only among the optimists in treatments where we observe the inflow effect

do women shy away from competition do men compete too much we examine whether men and women of the same ability differ in their selection into a competitive environment participants in a laboratory experiment solve a real task first under a noncompetitive piece rate and then a competitive tournament incentive scheme although there are no gender differences in performance men select the tournament twice as much as women when choosing their compensation scheme for the next performance while 73 percent of the men select the tournament only 35 percent of the women make this choice this gender gap in tournament entry is not explained by performance and factors such as risk and feedback aversion only playa negligible role instead the tournament entry gap is driven by men being more overconfident and by gender differences in preferences for performing in a competition the result is that women shy away from competition and men embrace it

did henry ford pay efficiency wages we examine henry ford s introduction of the five dollar day in 1914 in an effort to evaluate the relevance of efficiency wage theories of wage and employment determination we conclude that the ford experience strongly supports the relevance of these theories ford s decision to increase wages dramatically is most plausibly the consequence of labor problems of the kind efficiency wage theorists stress the structure of the five dollar day program is consistent with the predictions of efficiency wage theories there is vivid evidence that the introduction of the five dollar day resulted in substantial queues for ford jobs significant increases in ford productivity and profits accompanied the new regime

bubbles and financial professionals the efficiency of financial markets and their potential to produce bubbles are central topics in academic and professional debates yet little is known about the contribution of financial professionals to price efficiency we run 116 experimental markets with 412 professionals and 502 students we find that professional markets with bubble drivers capital inflows or high initial capital supply are susceptible to bubbles although they are more efficient than student markets in mixed markets with students bubbles also occur but professionals act as price stabilizers we show that heterogeneous price beliefs drive overpricing especially in bubble prone market environments

wage determination in agricultural labour markets under monopsonist labour tying arrangements there is need for a study of wage formation in agricultural labour markets which can simultaneously explain the existence of involuntary unemployment on the one hand and responsiveness to market forces on the other this paper offers an analysis and empirical study of wage determination in a typical rural agricultural setting and finds that based on the notion of efficiency wages a two tier situation explains why rural wage rates are known to vary widely among workers and across regions

famous first bubbles t he jargon of economics and finance contains numerous colorful expressions to denote a market determined asset price at odds with any reasonable economic explanation such words as tulip mania bubble chain letter ponzi scheme panic crash and financial crisis immediately evoke images of frenzied and probably irrational speculative activity many of these terms have emerged from specific speculative episodes which have been sufficiently frequent and important that they underpin a strong current belief among economists that key capital markets sometimes generate irrational and inefficient pricing and allocational outcomes before economists relegate a speculative event to the inexplicable or bubble category however we must exhaust all reasonable economic explanations while such explanations are often not easily generated due to the inherent complexity of economic phenomena the business of economists is to find clever fundamental market explanations for events and our methodology should always require that we search intensively for market fundamental explanations before clutching the bubble last resort thus among the reasonable or market fundamental explanations i would include the perception of an increased probability of large returns the perception might be triggered by genuine economic good news by a convincing new economic theory about payoffs or by a fraud launched by insiders acting strategically to trick investors it might also be triggered by uninformed market participants correctly inferring changes in the distribution of dividends by observing price movements generated by the trading of informed insiders while some of these perceptions might

is consumption growth consistent with intertemporal optimization evidence from the consumer expenditure survey in this paper we show that some of the predictions of models of consumer intertemporal optimization are in line with the patterns of nondurable expenditure observed in u s household level data we propose a flexible specification of preferences that allows multiple commodities and yields empirically tractable equations we estimate preference parameters using the only u s micro data set with complete consumption information we show that previous rejections can be explained by the simplifying assumptions made in previous studies we also show that results obtained using good consumption or aggregate data can be misleading

the economics of indeterminacy in overlapping generations models abstract recent research indicates that there are robust examples of overlapping generations economies in which there are indeterminate equilibria without fiat money and equilibria with more than one dimension of indeterminacy this paper presents simple examples of a stationary pure exchange overlapping generations economy with one good in each period and a representative consumer who lives for three periods in each generation these examples exhibit every possible form of indeterminacy and instability furthermore the parameters of the principal example agree with empirical evidence we use our examples as case studies for analyzing the problems involved in computing the equilibria of such economies

huggett economies with multiple stationary equilibria abstract i obtain a closed form solution to a huggett economy with constant absolute risk aversion cara utility when the vector of individual state variables follows a var 1 process with an arbitrary shock distribution the stationary equilibrium is unique if the income process is ar 1 but not necessarily so otherwise with gaussian shocks i provide general sufficient conditions for the existence of at least three equilibria when the income process is either arma 1 1 ar 2 or has a persistent transitory pt representation with negatively correlated shocks the possibility of multiple equilibria calls for caution in comparative statics exercises and policy analyses using heterogeneous agent models as an illustration i provide an example in which the welfare implication of changing the income risk goes in opposite directions depending on the choice of equilibrium

unemployment and the efficiency wage hypothesis there has been much recent discussion of the reasons why prices in certain markets and in particular in labour markets may not adjust to eliminate excess supply the absence of speedy adjustment of prices is an essential feature of the recent models of disequilibrium macroeconomics but for the most part no explanation for this absence is provided from within those models one explanation that has been around in the literature for some time and has been receiving increasing attention recently is the efficiency wage hypothesis initially applied to developing economies see leibenstein i957 it has more recently been adapted to developed economies by weiss i 980 and used in the context of a keynesian macroeconomic model by hart i 980 similar concepts have been applied to the credit market by stiglitz and weiss i98i the purpose of the present paper is to explore further the conditions under which the notion of an efficiency wage is applicable and can provide an explanation of involuntary unemployment the essential feature of the efficiency wage hypothesis is that the productivity of a firm s employees increases as their wage is increased at least over an economically relevant part of its range if the wage paid by the firm is denoted by w the number of employees by l and the productivity of each employee by p w where p w o then the effective labour force of the firm e can be represented by

the effect of short selling and borrowing on market prices and traders behavior this paper studies the influence of allowing borrowing and short selling on market prices and traders forecasts in an experimental asset market we verify although not statistically significantly so that borrowing tends to increase asset overvaluation and price orecasts while short selling tends to reduce these measures we also show that a number of results on beliefs traders types cognitive sophistication and earnings obtained in earlier experimental studies in which borrowing and short selling are not possible generalize to markets with borrowing and short sales

the effect of short selling on bubbles and crashes in experimental spot asset markets a series of experiments illustrate that relaxing short selling constraints lowers prices in experimental asset markets but does not induce prices to track fundamentals we argue that prices in experimental asset markets are influenced by restrictions on short selling capacity and limits on the cash available for purchases restrictions on short sales in the form of cash reserve requirements and quantity limits on short positions behave in a similar manner a simulation model based on delong et al 1990 generates average price patterns that are similar to the observed data asset market bubbles are persistent deviations of prices from fundamentals to the extent that bubbles exist they can influence investment levels and the allocation of capital and thereby have considerable economic effects in recognition of their potential importance the question of the existence and pervasiveness of bubbles has been a focus of extensive empirical investigation see e g shiller 1981 blanchard and watson 1982 diba and grossman 1988 and west 1988 these studies yield mixed results regarding the empirical relevance of bubble phenomena one source of the differences in conclusions may be that because the fundamental value of the assets cannot be observed tests of the presence of bubbles are joint tests with the particular specification of the process guiding the evolution of fundamentals also being tested the availability of short selling is widely believed to make bubble formation less likely one rationale for such a belief is the notion that the cause of asset market bubbles is a constraint on the ability of traders to speculate on future downward price movements see e g miller 1977 jarrow 1980 diamond and verrecchia 1987 or figlewski and webb 1993 in the absence of short sales traders may sell only the shares in their portfolios the availability of short sales relaxes this constraint in this paper we study empirically the effect of allowing short sales on both the incidence and magnitude of market bubbles we choose a setting in which the fundamental value of the asset is clearly and unambiguously defined and known at all times and bubbles typically occur namely we use the experimental environment that smith suchanek and williams 1988 introduce while

on the ingredients for bubble formation informed traders and communication bubbles in asset markets have been documented in numerous experiments most experiments in which bubbles occur feature a declining fundamental value this feature has been criticized for being atypical of real financial markets here we experimentally study other ingredients for bubble formation that are common in such markets namely the existence of inside information and communication among traders we find that bubbles and mirages can occur if these additional ingredients are present in particular the mere possibility that some traders are better informed than others can create bubbles surprisingly communication turns out to be counterproductive for bubble formation

asset markets with insider trading disclosure rule and reselling constraint an experimental analysis abstract we investigate the impact of compulsory insider trading disclosure and its combination with a mandatory holding rule on price predictability and asset mispricing we modify the dynamic price adjustment model to account for insiders private information our results show that insiders produce weakly characterized price signals that induce a less than proportional price adjustment to the changes in the dividend value in both markets with disclosure rule and holding requirement in comparison with unregulated markets a shift in insiders strategies from information motivated to liquidity motivated trading appears to fuel the impairment of price predictability in regulated markets the exacerbation of asset mispricing in markets with holding restriction is characterized by a growth in the speculative transactions and loss making trading proposals

nonspeculative bubbles in experimental asset markets lack of common knowledge of rationality vs actual irrationality we report the results of an experiment designed to study the role of speculation in the formation of bubbles and crashes in laboratory asset markets in a setting in which speculation is not possible bubbles and crashes are observed the results suggest that the departures from fundamental values are not caused by the lack of common knowledge of rationality leading to speculation but rather by behavior that itself exhibits elements of irrationality much of the trading activity that accompanies bubble formation in markets where speculation is possible is due to the fact that there is no other activity available for participants in the experiment

nonmonetary steady states in stationary overlapping generations models with long lived agents and discounting multiplicity optimality and consumption smoothing abstract we construct a sequence of pure exchange stationary olg economies in which generations have longer and longer life spans and all agents maximize a discounted sum of utilities with a fixed positive and common discount rate period utility functions and endowment patterns are subject to mild restrictions and within generation heterogeneity is permitted we show that i every sequence of equilibrium interest rates converges to the discount rate ii eventually every non monetary steady state is optimal and a monetary steady state will never exist and iii for any agent consumption at any fixed age converges to permanent income evaluated using the utility discount rate

behavioral aspects of arbitrageurs in timing games of bubbles and crashes abstract this paper demonstrates the theoretical foundation that underlies the willingness of rational arbitrageurs to delay and reinforce the speculative attack the key assumptions are that there is a small probability that arbitrageurs are behavioral and never time the market of their own accord and it is uncertain whether arbitrageurs are behavioral or rational we model a stock market as a timing game in which arbitrageurs compete to react quickest we show that rational arbitrageurs are willing to ride the bubble for a long period we also characterize symmetric nash equilibria and show the sufficient condition for uniqueness

margin short selling and lotteries in experimental asset markets the robustness of bubbles and crashes in markets for assets with finite lives is perplexing this paper reports the results of experimental asset markets in which participants trade two assets in some markets price bubbles form in these markets traders pay higher prices for the asset with lottery characteristics i e a claim on a large unlikely payoff however institutional design has a significant impact on deviations in prices from fundamental values particularly for an asset with lottery characteristics price run ups and crashes are moderated when traders finance purchases of the assets themselves and are allowed to short sell

bubbles and information an experiment a symmetric distribution of information although omnipresent in real markets is rarely considered in experimental economics we study whether information about imminent future dividends can abate bubbles in experimental asset markets we find that markets with asymmetrically informed traders have significantly smaller bubbles than markets with symmetrically informed or uninformed traders hence fundamental values are better reflected in market prices implying higher market efficiency when some traders know more than others about future dividends this suggests that bubbles are abated when traders know that a subset of them have an edge in information over others this paper was accepted by brad barber teck ho and terrance odean special issue editors

bubbles and experience an experiment with a steady inflow of new traders we revisit the effect of traders experience on price bubbles by introducing either one third or two thirds steady inflow of new traders in each of four consecutive experimental asset markets we find that bubbles are still reduced in the treatments with a steady inflow of new traders but at a slower pace compared to the baseline treatment in which new traders are only introduced in the last market our analysis of individual trading behavior shows that the slower abatement of bubbles in the inflow treatments can be attributed mainly to the inexperienced traders who make more mistakes than experienced traders

how tournament incentives affect asset markets a comparison between winner take all tournaments and elimination contests abstract we investigate the impact of investment managers tournament incentives on investment strategies and market efficiency distinguishing between winner take all tournaments wta where a minority wins and elimination contests ec where a majority wins theoretically we show that investment managers play heterogeneous strategies in wta and homogeneous strategies in ec and markets are more prone to mispricing in wta than in ec experimentally we find that investment managers play more heterogeneous strategies in wta than in ec but this does not trigger significant differences in prices moreover prices in wta and ec do not differ significantly from markets composed of linearly incentivized subjects

do option like incentives induce overvaluation evidence from experimental asset markets abstract one potential reason for bubbles evolving prior to the financial crisis was excessive risk taking stemming from option like incentive schemes in financial institutions by running laboratory asset markets we investigate the impact of option like incentives on price formation and trading behavior the main results are that i we observe significantly higher market prices with option like incentives than linear incentives ii we further find that option like incentives provoke subjects to behave differently and to take more risk than subjects with linear incentives iii we finally show that trading at inflated prices is rational for subjects with option like incentives since it increases their expected payout

individual expectations limited rationality and aggregate outcomes recent studies suggest that the type of strategic environment or expectation feedback can have a large impact on whether the market can learn the rational fundamental price we present an experiment where the fundamental price experiences large unexpected shocks markets with negative expectation feedback strategic substitutes quickly converge to the new fundamental while markets with positive expectation feedback strategic complements do not converge but show underreaction in the short run and overreaction in the long run a simple evolutionary selection model of individual learning explains these differences in aggregate outcomes

effects of different ways of incentivizing price forecasts on market dynamics and individual decisions in asset market experiments in this study we investigate a whether eliciting future price forecasts influences market outcomes and b whether differences in the way in which subjects are incentivized to submit accurate price forecasts influence market outcomes as well as the forecasts in an experimental asset market we consider four treatments one without forecast elicitation and three with forecast elicitation in two of the treatments with forecast elicitation subjects are paid based on their performance in both forecasting and trading while in the other treatment with forecast elicitations they are paid based on only one of those factors which is chosen randomly at the end of the experiment we found no significant effect of forecast elicitation on market outcomes in the latter case thus to avoid influencing the behavior of subjects and market outcomes by eliciting price forecasts paying subjects based on either forecasting or trading performance chosen randomly at the end of the experiment is better than paying them based on both in addition we consider forecast only experiments one in which subjects are rewarded based on the number of accurate forecasts and the other in which they are rewarded based on a quadratic scoring rule we found no significant difference in terms of forecasting performance between the two

efficiency wage models of unemployment keynesian economists hold it to be self evident that business cycles are characterized by involuntary unemployment but construction of a model of the cycle with involuntary unemployment faces the obvious difficulty of explaining why the labor market does not clear involuntarily unemployed people by definition want to work at less than the going wage rate why don t firms cut wages thereby increasing profits

thar she blows can bubbles be rekindled with experienced subjects we report 28 new experiment sessions consisting of up to three experience levels to examine the robustness of learning and error elimination among participants in a laboratory asset market and its effect on price bubbles our answer to the title question is yes we impose a large increase in liquidity and dividend uncertainty to shock the environment of experienced subjects who have converged to equilibrium and this treatment rekindles a bubble however in replications of that same challenging environment across three experience levels we discover that the environment yields a rare residual tendency to bubble even in the third experience session therefore a caveat must be placed on the effect of twice experienced subjects in asset markets in order for price bubbles to be extinguished the environment in which the participants engage in exchange must be stationary and bounded by a range of parameters experience including possible error elimination is not robust to major new environment changes in determining the characteristics of a price bubble jel c91 d83

cash inflows and bubbles in asset markets with constant fundamental values previous experimental research on asset markets has reported that the level of cash available to traders does not affect asset prices when fundamentals follow a time trajectory that is constant over time this contrasts with other research indicating that greater cash levels increase prices when fundamental values are decreasing over time we report a new experiment in which we show that greater initial cash levels are indeed associated with higher prices when fundamental values are constant over time thus high cash levels will lead to bubbles if the cash is introduced before the market opens our results reconcile the two previous sets of findings jel c90 d03 g02 g12 i introduction smith suchanek and williams 1988 initiated the experimental study of markets for multiperiod finitely lived assets a considerable subsequent literature has consistently observed price bubbles in such markets this consistency makes the smith et al paradigm a popular one for identifying and studying the factors that promote or dampen bubbles see palan 2013 for a survey of this literature it is known that some key market parameters influence prices and the tendency for bubbles to form two of these parameters are 1 the time trajectory of fundamental values and 2 the quantity of cash available for purchases compared to the quantity of assets available for sale a number of studies in this literature have contrasted the behavior of different fundamental value time paths the speed and effectiveness of price discovery the tendency of market prices to track fundamentals depend on the time path of the fundamental value trajectory breaban and noussair 2015 giusti jiang and xu 2012 noussair and powell 2010 stockl huber and kirchler 2014 a trajectory that is constant over time generates closer adherence to fundamental values than a time path that is monotonically decreasing kirchler huber and stockl 2012 noussair robin and ruffieux 2001 smith van boening and wellford 2000 1 another variable influencing market prices is the amount of liquidity traders have available for purchases it is well established that in the case of decreasing fundamentals the price level is affected by liquidity as measured by cash endowment levels greater cash endowments lead to higher prices caginalp and ilieva 2008 caginalp porter and smith 1998 2000 2001 haruvy and noussair 2006 cash and asset endowment levels are typically normalized into a measure of liquidity called the cash to asset c a ratio caginalp porter and smith 2001 this is the ratio of cash in the economy the total amount available for purchases of assets to the value of all of the units of asset in the economy evaluated at the fundamental value in period t the c a ratio is given by c a sub t summation over i c sub it summation over i q sub it f sub t where c a sub t is the c a ratio in period t c sub it is the cash available to trader i in period t q sub it is the quantity of units that trader i holds in period t and f sub t is the period t fundamental value the ratio can be interpreted as the ratio of the largest long position to the largest short position an average trader can take assuming that the market price is equal to the fundamental to date it has been shown that the cash asset ratio affects prices only for the case when fundamental values are decreasing to our knowledge only two studies have explored the effect of cash on prices when fundamentals are constant over time kirchler huber and stockl 2012 hereafter khs and kirchler et al 2015 in both of these studies the additional cash is introduced after one or more periods of trading have elapsed rather than before the market opens khs report that increases in cash endowments do not affect prices in the case of constant fundamental values because the authors interpret bubbles as a consequence of subject confusion about the experimental environment they conclude that the constant fundamental value setting leads to less confusion on the part of subjects

a review of bubbles and crashes in experimental asset markets this paper discusses the literature on bubbles and crashes in the most commonly used experimental asset market design introduced by smith et al it documents the main findings based on the results from 41 published papers 3 book chapters and 20 working papers

family labour supply and labour market segmentation this paper examines the differences in individuals labour supply decisions in different segments of the labour market it tests one of the main hypotheses of the dual labour market theory that the labour market can be divided into at least two segments and also whether the family labour supply decisions of individuals differ in the two segments the possibility of individuals wage rates depending on the number of hours worked is recognized and a model is developed in which both the wage rates and hours of work of individuals are jointly determined with the personal income tax system as an intervening variable since hours of labour supply depend on the post tax wage rate whereas if the marginal product of labour is a positive function of hours worked this affects the pre tax wage rates other alternative wage functions are specified and a simultaneous equations labour supply model using three stage least squares 3sls procedure is estimated the results indicate that there was sample selectivity bias

wage determination in rural labour markets the theory of implicit co operation abstract this paper argues that the process of determination of daily wage rate in rural labour markets is best seen as an act of implicit co operation among workers using the framework of repeated non cooperative game it is argued that this hypothesis can explain better than existing theories several known features of a typical south asian rural labour market e g the co existence of involuntary unemployment with responsiveness to supply and demand plasticity of wage rate in some cases co existing with rigidity in others etc