the role of investment specific technological change in the business cycle this is a quantitative investigation of the importance of technological change speci c to new investment goods for postwar us aggregate uctuations a growth model that incorporates this form of technological change is calibrated to us data and simulated using the relative price of new equipment to identify the process driving investmentspeci c technology shocks the analysis suggests that this form of technological change is the source of about 30 of output uctuations 2000 elsevier science b v all rights reserved

preference reversals and the independence axiom of all of the paradoxical patterns of behavior reported in laboratory experiments one of the most perplexing for decision theorists is the preference reversal phenomenon a subject in a preference reversal experiment is typically given a choice between a lottery with a high probability of winning a modest amount of money a p bet and a lottery with a low probability of winning a large amount of money a bet the lowest amount of money for which the subject would willingly sell either of these lotteries is also elicited the most common reversal is for a subject to choose the p bet over the bet but to put a higher selling price on the bet preference reversals were first reported by harold lindman 1971 and sarah lichtenstein and paul slovic 1971 in discussing the psychologists discovery of such reversals david grether and charles plott remark the inconsistency is deeper than mere lack of transitivity or even stochastic transitivity it suggests that no optimization principles of any sort lie behind even the simplest of human choices 1979 p 623 this paper offers a simple alternative explanation of documented preference reversals an explanation that does not require the abandonment of the transitivity assumption

total factor productivity and the measurement of technological change tfp is interpreted in the literature in different mutually contradictory ways changes in tfp are shown to measure not technological change only the super normal returns to investing in such change returns that exceed the full opportunity cost of the activity thus in the limit technological change can proceed with unchanged tfp measuring the effects of technological change instead requires counterfactual estimates reasons why changes in tfp are imperfect measures of super normal returns are also studied reasons connected with the timing of output responses the treatment of r d in the national accounts the omission of resource inputs and two types of aggregation la productivite totale des facteurs et la mesure du changement technologique la productivite totale des facteurs ptf est interpretee dans la litterature de manieres differentes et mutuellement contradictoires on montre que les changements dans la ptf ne mesurent pas le changement technologique mais seulement les rendements supra normaux sur les investissements dans de tels changements des rendements qui depassent le plein cout d opportunite de cette activite donc a la limite le changement technologique peut proceder sans que la ptf change mesurer les effets du changement technique reclame des evaluations d hypotheses de rechange les raisons pour lesquelles les changements dans la ptf sont des mesures imparfaites des rendements supra normaux sont aussi etudiees raisons connectees avec la reponse des niveaux de production le traitement de la r d dans les comptes nationaux l omission des intrants de ressources et deux types d agregation

economic theory of choice and the preference reversal phenomenon a reexamination in a recent issue of this review david grether and charles plott 1979 hereinafter referred to as g p presented a series of experiments that show that individual decisions are made in a manner inconsistent with standard preference theory this inconsistency can be illustrated by the following example individuals under suitable laboratory conditions first have a choice between a lottery with a high probability of winning a small sum of money the p bet probability bet and a lottery with a high stake but low probability of winning the m bet money bet after indicating a preference for one of the lotteries in the pair the same subjects are then asked to place a monetary value on each of the individual lotteries grether and plott found that a large number of participants stated a preference for the p bet in the first round but placed a higher value on the other lottery the m bet in the second round this behavior a preference reversal is inconsistent with the traditional statements of preference theory

the welfare cost of macroeconomic uncertainty in the post war period abstract with standard assumptions on preferences and a fully fledged econometric model we computed the welfare costs of macroeconomic uncertainty for post war u s using the beveridge nelson decomposition welfare costs are about 0 9 per capita consumption 175 77 a year and marginal welfare costs are about twice as large

a consistent multidimensional pigou dalton transfer principle abstract the unidimensional pigou dalton transfer principle demands that a regressive transfer in income a transfer from worse off poor to better off rich decreases social welfare in a multidimensional setting the direct link between income or any other attribute and individual well being is absent we interpret the social welfare level of a distribution in which each individual has the same bundle as the individual well being level we define regressivity on the basis of this individual well being ranking in a setting with both transferable and non transferable attributes the imposition of the ensuing consistent pigou dalton principle forces individual well being to have a quasi linear structure in the transferable attributes since we allow for transferable and non transferable attributes our result provides a normative underpinning for criteria in the distinct literatures of multidimensional inequality measurement only transferable attributes and of needs one transferable and one non transferable attribute

consumer confidence and rational expectations are agents beliefs consistent with the theory consumer confidence is found to have predictive content for a wide range of macroeconomic variables including consumption growth contrary to standard repih we find that on uk data the repih is rejected due to the predictive content of consumer confidence and not labour income we explain this finding in terms of precautionary behaviour extending the hansen and singleton consumption capm model to allow a conditional variance we find a high level of confidence is associated with both greater optimism about the level of consumption and greater uncertainty about the forecaster variance once allowance is made for time aggregation the over identifying restrictions implied by this model are accepted we estimate a small but statistically significant intertemporal elasticity of substitution

a theory of disappointment aversion an axiomatic model of preferences over lotteries is developed it is shown that this model is consistent with the allais paradox includes expected utility theory as a special case and is only one parameter beta richer than the expected utility model allais paradox type behavior is identified with positive values of beta preferences with positive beta are said to be disappointment averse it is shown that risk aversion implies disappointment aversion and that the arrow pratt measures of risk aversion can be generalized in a straight forward manner to the current framework copyright 1991 by the econometric society

externalities technological complementarities and sustained economic growth externalities as conventionally defined miss many of the spillovers that are both causes and consequences of the technological changes that underlie economic growth we introduce a much wider concept called technological complementarities new general purpose technologies gpts rejuvenate the growth process by creating technological complementarities which are adequately measured neither by total factor productivity tfp nor by externalities there would be major gains from technological change even if the returns on capital invested in innovation never exceeded the returns on investing in existing technologies so that there were neither externalities nor positive changes in tfp

risk perception in psychology and economics abstract the concept of rationality has been basic to most economic analysis its content has been successively refined over the generations as applied to the static world of certainty it has turned out to be a weak hypothesis not easily refuted and therefore not very useful as an explanation though not literally a tautology but recent decades have seen the development of stronger versions applied to a world in which time and uncertainty are real among its most important manifestations have been criteria for consistency in allocation over time the expected utility hypothesis of behavior under uncertainty and what may be termed the bayesian hypothesis for learning that is the consistent use of conditional probabilities for changing beliefs on the basis of new information these hypotheses have been used widely in offering explanations of empirically observed behavior though as not infrequently in economics the theoretical development has gone much further than the empirical implementation these hypotheses have also been used increasingly in normative analysis as a component of benefit cost studies therefore frequently referred to as benefit risk studies the value of reducing mortality rates from diseases for example has been studied by assuming that choice of occupations is made inter alia by comparing wage differences with mortality differences

counting and multidimensional poverty measurement this paper proposes a new methodology for multidimensional poverty measurement consisting of an identification method k that extends the traditional intersection and union approaches and a class of poverty measures m our identification step employs two forms of cutoff one within each dimension to determine whether a person is deprived in that dimension and a second across dimensions that identifies the poor by counting the dimensions in which a person is deprived the aggregation step employs the fgt measures appropriately adjusted to account for multidimensionality the axioms are presented as joint restrictions on identification and the measures and the methodology satisfies a range of desirable properties including decomposability the identification method is particularly well suited for use with ordinal data as is the first of our measures the adjusted headcount ratio we present some dominance results and an interpretation of the adjusted headcount ratio as a measure of unfreedom examples from the us and indonesia illustrate our methodology

external effects in u s procyclical productivity abstract in this paper we highlight a new dimension of the aggregate procyclical productivity phenomenon we show that estimates of the degree of returns to scale are larger for manufacturing as a whole than for two digit industries since this difference must be due to factors that are only internalized at the most aggregate level we term it an external effect this result rules out explanations based on own input variation such as true increasing returns and unmeasured factor utilization tied to own activity as the sole explanations for aggregate procyclical productivity we explore several potential explanations of this external effect

saving and liquidity constraints this paper is concerned with the theory of saving when consumers are not permitted to borrow and with the ability of such a theory to account for some of the stylized facts of saving behavior the models presented in the paper seem to account for important aspects of reality that are not explained by traditional life cycle models copyright 1991 by the econometric society

the costs of recession a reply pemberton i 995 raises the important issue of what is the most appropriate way to measure business cycle costs from an individual perspective as always in these matters it is not nor should it be a case of outright victory of one side over the other rather it is a question of which approach is the more plausible and on this we would wish to defend our shade of grey as being the more plausible measure this brief reply explains why imagine the simplest possible textbook experiment used to explain some of the principles of expected utility maximisation a prize in our case employed consumption c can be won with a given probability and the alternative is the booby prize of unemployed consumption let c be the expected value of this gamble and let c be the amount for which the player would be indifferent to the gamble the risk premium is then simply the difference between c and c this is exactly what is given by equation 9 in clark et al i994 equation 2 in pemberton s comment where the risk premium is measured as a proportion of employed consumption so there is nothing mysterious about our recession cost measure it is simply the standard textbook risk premium it would seem to us to be a very natural experiment to consider when measuring the cost of agents exposure to risks and we termed it the net cost measure our gross cost measure is given by i c c which is described by our equation 7 this is just the risk premium plus the difference between employed consumption and expected consumption again all measured relative to employed consumption we argued that the gross measure was one which would appeal to keynesians who because they view cycles as disequilibrium events would wish to include losses in consumption as part of the costs pemberton s statement that a high equilibrium natural rate of unemployment is surely a major problem is an implicit endorsement of the keynesian cost measure in our view the net measure because it measures the risk premium obviously abstracts away from any consumption losses as a result of drawing the booby prize this is exactly the same idea as lucas in his proposed cost measure who because of his view that business cycles are equilibrium events does not accept consumption losses as a proper part of costs the lucas measure and our own compare a risky consumption path with a riskless stream our measure differs from lucas however in one important respect from the macro perspective that he adopts the important comparison when measuring economic fluctuations and their impact on the welfare of representative agents is the deviation of consumption from its trend path thus lucas recession cost measure depends on the variance of consumption around that path unusually high aggregate consumption is as costly as unusually low

the first industrial revolution a guided tour for growth economists it is routine for growth economists to appeal to the british industrial revolution as motivation for their papers this overview draws implications from this important experience for how economists think about growth empirical growth economics and policy based on recent historical research the update it provides may also help to improve the plausibility of future economic interpretations of early industrialization technological change is of course central to the years 1760 1830 a period to which thomas ashton 1948 attached the label first industrial revolution thus it is not surprising that new growth models of the endogenous innovation variety are much more helpful for the analysis of this period than those that envisage endogenous growth without explicit reference to total factor productivity tfp growth crafts 1995 it follows that it is important to consider britain s social capability for growth i e the impact of institutions and policy choices on tfp growth rather than simply focusing on investment in human and physical capital

returns to scale concept estimation and analysis of japan s turbulent 1964 88 economy there is policy interest in factoring productivity growth into technical progress and returns to scale components our approach uses exact index number methods to reduce the parameters that must be estimated and allows us to exploit the cross sectional dimension of plant level panel data we show that the same equation can also be used to estimate harberger scale economies and technical progress indicators that require fewer assumptions estimates of the elasticity of scale for japanese establishments in three major industries over 1964 88 are presented our study spans the high growth era of the 1960s two oil shocks and other exogenous shocks il y a interet en politique publique a identifier les composantes de la croissance de la productivite attribuables au progres technique et aux rendements a l echelle l approche utilise les methodes des nombres indices exacts pour reduire les parametres qui doivent etres estimes et pouvoir exploiter la dimension transversale des donnees de panel au niveau de l etablissement on montre que la meme equation peut etre utilisee pour estimer les indicateurs d economies d echelle et de progres technique a la harberger lesquels necessitent un plus petit nombre de postulats on presente des evaluations de l elasticite d echelle pour des etablissements japonais dans trois industries importantes entre 1964 et 1988 l etude couvre la periode de forte croissance des annees 1960 celle des deux chocs petroliers et d autres chocs exogenes

gpt driven endogenous growth seven years after helpman s 1998 book on general purpose technologies gpts there is a dearth of subsequent models early models employed technically complex dynamic optimising techniques which limited further development we present a model in which sustained growth is driven by a succession of gpts that is technically simpler than the early models yet captures stylised facts that were omitted from them ours has diminishing returns to inputs and endogenous incremental technological changes from r d interrupted by the occasional introduction of new gpts gpts are themselves developed endogenously with payoffs that are subject to uncertainty in magnitude and timing

the relation between price and marginal cost in u s industry an examination of data on output and labor input reveals that some u s industries have marginal cost well below price the conclusion rests on the finding that cyclical variations in labor input are small compared with variations in output in booms firms produce substantially more output and sell it for a price that exceeds the costs of the added inputs the paper documents the disparity between price and marginal cost where marginal cost is estimated from annual variations in cost it considers a variety of explanations of the findings that are consistent with competition but none is found to be completely plausible

what do normative indices of multidimensional inequality really measure we argue that normative indices of multidimensional inequality do not only measure a distribution s extent of inequity i e the gaps between the better off and the worse off but also its extent of inefficiency i e the non realized mutually beneficial exchanges of goods we provide a decomposition that allows quantifying these two parts of inequality exact formulas of the inequity and inefficiency components are provided for a generic class of social welfare functions the inequity component turns out to be a two stage measure which applies a unidimensional inequality measure to the vector of well being levels we critically discuss two prominent transfer principles viz uniform majorization and correlation increasing majorization in the light of the decomposition a decomposition of inequality in human development illustrates the analysis

robust multidimensional poverty comparisons we demonstrate how to make poverty comparisons using multidimensional indicators of well being showing in particular how to check whether the comparisons are robust to aggregation procedures and to the choice of multidimensional poverty lines in contrast to earlier work our methodology applies equally well to what can be defined as union intersection or intermediate approaches to dealing with multidimensional indicators of well being to make this procedure of some practical usefulness the paper also derives the sampling distribution of various multidimensional poverty estimators including estimators of the critical poverty frontiers outside which multidimensional poverty comparisons can no longer be deemed ethically robust the results are illustrated using data from a number of developing countries

u s economic growth at the industry level the u s economy has expanded rapidly in recent years with total factor productivity the source of growth most closely identified with technological gains rising sharply since the mid 1990 s see e g bureau of labor statistics 1999 william gullickson and michael j harper 1999 mun s ho et al 1999 daniel e sichel 1999 this strong aggregate performance and the well documented explosion of investment in computers and other high tech equipment have led many to believe that the united states has experienced a permanent technology led growth revival it is essential however to disaggregate estimates of economic growth to the industry level to understand the new trends in the u s economy productivity growth the ability to produce more outputs from the same inputs differs widely among industries for the economy as a whole negative productivity growth in one industry can offset positive productivity growth in another and jorgenson 1990 shows that a measure of productivity based solely on aggregate data is valid only under very stringent conditions we avoid the limitations of an aggregate measure of productivity by decomposing u s growth across industries for the period 1958 1996 by breaking down the u s economy into 37 industries 35 private industries private households and general government we identify the contribution of each industry to aggregate productivity growth this enables us to isolate the underlying sources of gains in productivity and provides a better understanding of the forces driving the u s economy economy wide productivity from an aggregate production function increased 0 45 percent per year during 1958 1996 while methodology developed by evsey domar 1961 for aggregating over industries yields an aggregate estimate of 0 48 percent over the same period however industry productivity growth ranged from 1 98 percent in electronic and electric equipment to 20 52 percent in government enterprises highlighting fundamental differences in technology and productivity growth across industries these results show that the aggregate production function provides a reasonable estimate of productivity trends over long periods but also masks important differences among industries

the intertemporal elasticity of substitution in consumption in the united states and the united kingdom as robert e hall 1988 notes the magnitude of the intertemporal elasticity of substitution in consumption is one of the central questions of macroeconomics do higher expected real interest rates lead to deferred consumption the authors extend hall s methodology and model and compare results for the united sta tes and the united kingdom in both cases they directly estimate the mo ving average process that temporal aggregation might induce in the random disturbances and take account of consumers who do not follow the lif e cycle permanent income model of consumption copyright 1992 by mit press

assessing deprivation with an ordinal variable theory and application to sanitation deprivation in bangladesh the challenges associated with poverty measurement with a cardinal variable have received due attention during the last four decades but there is a dearth of literature studying how to meaningfully assess poverty with an ordinal variable this paper first proposes a class of simple intuitive and policy relevant poverty measures for ordinal variables these measures are sensitive to depth of deprivations unlike the headcount ratio moreover under appropriate restrictions the measures ensure that priority is given to the poorest among the poor while targeting monitoring and evaluating poverty alleviation programs to assess the robustness of poverty comparisons to alternative choices of parameters various stochastic dominance tests are developed some of which are themselves novel contributions to the stochastic dominance literature the empirical illustration documenting changes in sanitation deprivation in bangladesh showcases the measures ability to identify instances in which overall sanitation deprivation improved while leaving the poorest behind

the costs of recession a comment using the approach described in the above quotation lucas i987 calculated that the representative consumer would give up only around i io of one per cent of base consumption as the price for eliminating all aggregate fluctuations subsequent work by manuelli and sargent i 988 and with some minor variations imrohoroglu i989 largely confirmed the apparently trivial nature of the business cycle clark leslie and symons i994 henceforth cls have challenged this conclusion using uk data on household consumption patterns they calculate costs for households with various characteristics for the representative household i e with average values for all relevant characteristics the cost is i 63 of base consumption and the mean value across all households is around 2 87 l these much higher costs certainly do not suggest that cycles are trivial cls present some useful and interesting empirical estimates of the impact of unemployment on individual consumption choices however i argue that they draw the wrong conclusion from their data and that the latter imply cyclical costs which are either zero or at least of similar trivial magnitude to lucas s cls assume that an individual is either employed with probability p or unemployed probability i p i use cls s notation throughout consumption in the two states is c and yc o y i respectively the utility function is crra whence expected utility eu is

prioritarian poverty comparisons with cardinal and ordinal attributes the ethical view of prioritarianism holds the following if an extra bundle of attributes is to be allocated to either of two individuals then priority should be given to the worse off among the two we consider multidimensional poverty comparisons with cardinal and ordinal attributes and propose three axioms that operationalize the prioritarian view each priority axiom in combination with a handful of standard properties characterizes a class of poverty measures this article is protected by copyright all rights reserved

does the new economy measure up to the great inventions of the past abstract during the four years 1995 99 u s productivity growth experienced a strong revival and achieved growth rates exceeding that of the golden age of 1913 72 accordingly many observers have declared the new economy to be an industrial revolution even more important than the second industrial revolution of 1860 1900 which made the golden age of productivity growth possible this paper dissects the recent productivity revival subtracts out a cyclical component and concludes that there is no revival of the productivity growth trend in the 88 percent of the private economy lying outside of the durables manufacturing sector the paper explains this surprising finding by pointing to limitations in computers and the internet in comparison with the great inventions of the past

the root cause of economic growth under capitalism drawing on historical and other empirical evidence this paper provides a causal explanation of a central question why sustained per capita growth occurs in capitalist economies i e in what way capitalism differs from the market that gives it this property it describes an endogenous economic logic that is based on the institutional characteristics of capitalist firms in the non financial sector especially the flexibility of the inputs that they can call upon and of the size of the market that they can supply this perspective naturally generates a realistic theoretical account not only of the source of economic growth but also of the evolution of market structure the forces that produce divergence in for example profit rates a starting point for explaining price setting and a language for describing firms economic power it draws on previous traditions especially those based on the works of marx and schumpeter but differs from them in important respects copyright the author 2011 published by oxford university press on behalf of the cambridge political economy society all rights reserved oxford university press

on measuring the welfare cost of business cycles lucas 1987 argues that the gain from eliminating aggregate fluctuations is trivial following lucas a number of researchers have altered assumptions on preferences and found that the gain from eliminating business cycles are potentially very large however in these exercises little discipline is placed on preference parameters this paper estimates the welfare cost of business cycles allowing for potential time non separabilities in preferences where discipline is placed on the choice of preference parameters by requiring that the preferences be consistent with observed fluctuations in a model of business cycles that is a theoretical real business cycle world is constructed and the representative agent is then placed in this world the agent responds optimally to exogenous shocks given the frictions in the economy the agent s preference parameters along with other structural parameters are estimated using a bayesian procedure involving markov chain monte carlo methods two main results emerge from the paper first the form for the time non separability estimated in this paper is very different than the forms suggested and used elsewhere in the literature second the welfare cost of business cycles is close to lucas s estimate

on the welfare costs of business cycle fluctuations and economic growth variation in the 20th century and beyond lucas 1987 has shown a surprising result in business cycle research the welfare cost of business cycles are very small our paper has several original contributions first in computing welfare costs we propose a novel setup that separates the eects of uncertainty stemming from business cycle uctuations and economic growth variation second we extend the sample from which to compute the moments of consumption the whole of the literature chose primarily to we gratefully acknowledge the comments of caio almeida carlos e da costa robert f engle pedro c ferreira antonio fiorencio rodolfo manuelli samuel pessoa and octavio tourinho on this or on earlier versions of this paper all errors are ours we thank cnpq brazil faperj and inct for nancial support y corresponding author

risk aversion in the theory of expected utility with rank dependent probabilities expected utility with rank dependent probability theory is a model of decision making under risk where the preference relations on the set of probability distributions is represented by the mathematical expectation of a utility function with respect to a transformation of the probability distributions on the set of outcomes this paper defines based on g teaux differentiability measures of risk aversion for such preferences which characterize the relation more risk averse and applies these measures to the analysis of unconditional and conditional portfolio choice problems

the comparison of multi dimensioned distributions of economic status the literature on inequality measurement has been largely concerned with single dimensioned indicators this paper explores some of the issues which arise when there are several dimensions to inequality and these are not readily reduced to a single index concentrating particularly on the two dimensioned case we make use of results on multi variate stochastic dominance in portfolio theory extending these and applying them to the measurement of inequality the use of the dominance conditions is illustrated by an application to the international distribution of income and life expectancy

choice under uncertainty problems solved and unsolved ffifteen years ago the theory of choice under uncertainty could be considered one of the success stories of economic analysis it rested on solid axiomatic foundations it had seen important breakthroughs in the analytics of risk risk aversion and their applications to economic issues and it stood ready to provide the theoretical underpinnings for the newly emerging information revolution in economics 1 today choice under uncertainty is a field in flux the standard theory is being challenged on several grounds from both within and outside economics the nature of these challenges and of our profession s responses to them is the topic of this paper

growth trends cyclical fluctuations and welfare with non expected utility preferences abstract using standard time separable discounted expected utility eu models lucas models of business cycles 1987 and others argue that growth trends have a crucial and cyclical fluctuations a trivial effect on individuals utility these conclusions are drastically altered if instead non eu preferences are assumed

poverty human development and growth an emerging consensus this paper considers several issues relevant to the debate on the extent to which poverty or development progress in general should be measured by income or by a broader set of objectives issues covered here are practical implications of the two approaches for poverty reduction efforts the impact of growth on basic social indicators and how national achievement on social indicators is best measured sri lanka and pakistan countries often cited in this debate are used as examples

long run implications of investment specific technological change an attempt is made to disentangle its effects from the more traditional hicksneutral form of technological progress the balanced growth path for the model is characterized and calibrated to u s national income and product account nipa data the quantitative analysis suggests that investment specific technological change accounts for the major part of growth jel e13 030 041 047

cost of business cycles with indivisibilities and liquidity constraints it is almost universally agreed that individuals face incomplete insurance markets and cannot perfectly insure against the idiosyncratic risk in this paper simple general equilibrium models with incomplete insurance markets are examined in order to assess the impact of imperfect insurance on the magnitude of the welfare costs of business cycles two versions of incomplete insurance markets are considered and certain statistical properties of the equilibrium stochastic processes in these environments are compared with those of a perfect insurance economy

on the welfare cost of economic fluctuations in developing countries macroeconomic fluctuations are much stronger in developing countries than in the united states yet while a large literature debates the welfare cost of economic fluctuations in the united states it remains an open question how large that cost is in developing countries using several models we provide such a measure we find that the welfare cost of consumption volatility per se is far from trivial and averages a substantial multiple of the corresponding u s estimate moreover in many poor countries the welfare gain from eliminating volatility may in fact exceed the welfare gain from an additional percentage point of growth forever

productivity growth technical progress and efficiency change in industrialized countries this paper analyzes productivity growth in 17 oecd countries over the period 1979 1988 a nonparametric programming method activity analysis is used to compute malmquist productivity indexes these are decomposed into two component measures namely technical change and efficiency change we find that u s productivity growth is slightly higher than average all of which is due to technical change japan s productivity growth is the highest in the sample with almost half due to efficiency change jel c43 d24 in this paper we apply recently developed

the cost of business cycles under endogenous growth robert e lucas jr argued that the welfare gains from reducing aggregate consumption volatility are negligible subsequent work that revisited his calculation continued to find small welfare benefits further reinforcing the perception that business cycles do not matter this paper argues instead that fluctuations can affect welfare by affecting the growth rate of consumption i show that fluctuations can reduce growth starting from a given initial consumption which can imply substantial welfare effects as lucas himself observed empirical evidence suggests the welfare effects are likely to be substantial about two orders of magnitude greater than lucas original estimates

minimum distribution sensitivity poverty aversion and poverty orderings abstract this paper introduces a measure of distribution sensitivity which is similar to arrow pratt s measure of risk aversion for a poverty index the measure also gauges poverty aversion and has a clear and straightforward interpretation using this measure we can define various classes of minimum distribution sensitive poverty indices we show that the ordering condition for such a class of poverty indices is simply a generalized poverty deprivation profile dominance properties and implications of this dominance condition are analyzed and poverty orderings by different classes of poverty measures are compared journal of economic literature classification number i32

first order risk aversion and the equity premium puzzle abstract this paper integrates yaari s dual theory of choice under uncertainty into a multiperiod context and examines its implications for the equity premium puzzle an important property of these preferences is that of first order risk aversion which implies in our model that the risk premium for a small gamble is proportional to the standard deviation rather than the variance since the standard deviation of the growth rate in aggregate consumption is considerably larger than its variance the model can generate both a small risk free rate and a moderate equity premium