efficient search on the job and the business cycle the paper develops a model of directed search on the job in which transitions of workers between unemployment and employment and across employers are driven by heterogeneity in the quality of firm worker matches the equilibrium is such that the agents value and policy functions are independent of the endogenous distribution of workers across employment states hence the model can be solved outside of the steady state and used to measure the effect of cyclical productivity shocks on the labor market productivity shocks are found to generate large fluctuations in workers transitions unemployment and vacancies when matches are experience goods but not when matches are inspection goods

a review of the recent empirical literature on displaced workers this article reviews the empirical literature on job displacement job displacement is widespread and strongly countercyclical tending to peak during economic downturns but concentrated in indus

does employment protection create its own political support this paper investigates the ability of employment protection to generate its own political support a version of the mortensen pissarides model is used for this purpose if wages are set through nash bargaining workers value employment protection because it strengthens their hand in wage negotiations workers in high productivity matches benefit most from higher wages as they expect to stay employed for longer by reducing turnover employment protection shifts the distribution of match specific productivity toward lower values thus stringent protection in the past actually reduces support for employment protection today introducing involuntary separations reverses this conclusion now workers value employment protection because it delays involuntary dismissals workers in low productivity matches gain most since they face the highest risk of dismissal the downward shift in the productivity distribution is now a shift towards supporters

what happens to wages after displacement faced with limited resources policymakers need to know when and where to target support for displaced workers the academic literature offers little support presenting wide ranging results with no consistent explanation for the observed differences in wages after workers are displaced in this paper we demonstrate that the heterogeneity found in the literature is consistent with varying market conditions the results suggest that support for displaced workers can be more efficiently allocated by considering the timing and location of displacement

domestic violence a nonrandom affair in this paper we develop and estimate a model of domestic violence we extend a noncooperative model of the family to include violence as a source of gratification and an instrument for controlling behavior we estimate the model by robust methods since the violence process appears to have a heavy tailed nonnormal error distribution we find that the properties of the equilibria depend on family income for low middle income families our results indicate an equilibrium in which one person s reservation utility constraint is binding whereas for higher income families both individuals may gain from the relationship

terror as a bargaining instrument a case study of dowry violence in rural india this ethnographic study examined the sociocultural context of domestic violence and dowry in india and describes a theoretical model and econometric methodology the model was tested with survey data collected from a sub caste of 149 potter families from 3 villages in karnataka state in south india interviews were conducted among 139 adult married women and 130 married men the case studies demonstrate that violence can be used as a way to redistribute resources bargaining over dowry amounts occurs twice once before the marriage and renegotiations after the wife had moved to the husbands family domestic violence may be a weapon in order to obtain higher transfers at the renegotiation stage the model assumes that the level of dowry and the occurrence of violence are determined simultaneously hypotheses tested whether increases in husbands family wealth in the dowry paid and husbands cost of violent behavior reduces the incidence of violence tests determined whether increases in wifes familys wealth and increases in wifes human capital husbands human capital or wifes cost of violence increase violence 23 reported wife beating at some time a 10000 rupee increase in the wifes parents income increased the risk of violence by 4 a 10000 rupee increase in the husbands parents income reduced the risk of violence by 10 a 10000 rupee increase in dowry reduced the risk by 5 an additional male child reduced the risk by 11 female sterilization increased the risk by 16 findings suggest that husbands beat wives when the wifes family is rich and when dowries are small

life cycle equilibrium unemployment this paper extends the job creation job destruction approach to the labor market to take into account a deterministic finite horizon as hirings and separations depend on the time over which investment costs can be recouped the life cycle setting implies age differentiated labor market flows while search by the unemployed falls with age the separation rate is rather u shaped over the life cycle worker heterogeneity in the context of undirected search implies an intergenerational externality which is not eliminated by the hosios condition we show that age specific policies are required to attain the first best allocation

cyclical dynamics in idiosyncratic labor market risk is individual labor income more risky in recessions this is a difficult question to answer because existing panel data sets are so short to address this problem we develop a generalized method of moments estimator that conditions on the macroeconomic history that each member of the panel has experienced variation in the cross sectional variance between households with differing macroeconomic histories allows us to incorporate business cycle information dating back to 1930 even though our data do not begin until 1968 we implement this estimator using household level labor earnings data from the panel study of income dynamics we estimate that idiosyncratic risk is i highly persistent with an annual autocorrelation coefficient of 0 95 and ii strongly countercyclical with a conditional standard deviation that increases by 75 percent from 0 12 to 0 21 as the macroeconomy moves from peak to trough

job destruction and propagation of shocks this paper considers propagation of aggregate shocks in a dynamic general equilibrium model with labor market matching and endogenous job destruction cyclical fluctuations in the job destruction rate magnify the output effects of shocks as well as making them much more persistent interactions between capital adjustment and the job destruction rate play an important role in generating persistence propagation effects are shown to be quantitatively substantial when the model is calibrated using job flow data incorporating costly capital adjustment leads to significantly greater propagation

lasting or latent scars swedish evidence on the long term effects of job displacement recently improved swedish register data have made it possible to remedy many weaknesses of previous research on displaced workers using linked employer employee data we identify all workers displaced in 1987 due to an establishment closure and follow them over both a predisplacement period of 4 years and a postdisplacement period stretching until 1999 we find that the displaced workers suffer both earnings losses and worsened labor market position not only during a transitory period of adjustment but also in the longer run these longer run effects seem to be driven by an increased sensitivity to subsequent macroeconomic shocks

measuring the effect of subsidized training programs on movements in and out of employment despite over two decades of u s experience in operating large scale subsidized training programs for low income and unemployed workers the effects of these programs are still highly controversial the controversy arises from the difficulty of specifying the model of participant outcomes in the absence of training that is necessary in any nonexperimental program evaluation in this paper we suggest that some of these difficulties may be overcome by focusing on a very simple measure of outcomes namely the probability of employment we present a variety of estimates of the effect of training on the probability of employment for the 1976 cohort of adult male participants in the comprehensive employment and training act ceta program our methods range from a simple comparison of pre and post training employment probabilities between trainees and nonparticipants to a fully specified first order markov model of employment probabilities with individual heterogeneity there is consistent evidence across methods that ceta participation increased the probability of employment in the three years after training by from 2 to 5 percentage points classroom training programs appear to have had significantly larger effects than on the job programs although the estimated effects of both kinds of programs are positive we also find that movements in and out of employment for trainees and nonparticipants are reasonably well described by a first order process conditional on individual heterogeneity in the context of this model ceta participation appears to have increased both the probability of moving into employment and the probability of continuing employment

an empirical test of the infant industry argument the basic infant industry argument maintains that the cost of a new activity is initially high it does not pay any individual to enter an infant industry at free trade prices if developed the industry will permit a reasonable return on initial losses and a temporary period of protection is required this paper has attempted two things to develop an empirical test for the validity of the infant industry argument and to use that test on turkish data the test is simple and straightforward input per unit of output must fall more rapidly in more protected industries if there is to be any rationale for infant industry protection in the turkish case there was no such tendency over the period covered the fact that protected turkish industries did not experience rapid increases in output per unit of input is sufficient to prove that protection was not warranted it does not however prove that there were no infant industries the trade regime might have provided the wrong incentives and under an alternative structure output per unit of input might have grown more rapidly in some or possibly all turkish industries in conclusion protection did not elicit the sort of growth in output per unit on which infant industry proponents base their claim for protection

misclassification errors and the underestimation of the us unemployment rate using recent results in the measurement error literature we show that the official u s unemployment rates substantially underestimate the true levels of unemployment due to misclassification errors in labor force status in current population surveys our closed form identification of the misclassification probabilities relies on the key assumptions that the misreporting behaviors only depend on the true values and that the true labor force status dynamics satisfy a markov type property during the period of 1996 to 2009 the corrected monthly unemployment rates are 1 to 4 6 percentage points 25 to 45 higher than the official rates and are more sensitive to changes in business cycles labor force participation rates however are not affected by this correction we also provide results for various subgroups of the u s population defined by gender race and age

job displacement and the transitions to re employment and early retirement for non employed older workers abstract despite the relatively higher frequency of job displacement among older workers in europe little is known about its effect on the work retirement decision employing individual data from the european community household panel for a number of countries with differences in their institutional environments the effect of job displacement for non employed workers is identified separately for the transitions into re employment and retirement the findings suggest that in countries with relatively more generous unemployment insurance provisions for the older unemployed which offer a pathway to early retirement older displaced workers exhibit lower re employment and higher retirement rates compared to the non displaced these results are robust to dynamic selection due to unobserved heterogeneity and to the endogeneity of displacement

the cyclicality of separation and job finding rates this paper uses cps gross flow data to analyze the business cycle dynamics of separation and job finding rates and to quantify their contributions to overall unemployment variability cyclical changes in the separation rate are negatively correlated with changes in productivity and move contemporaneously with them while the job finding rate is positively correlated with and tends to lag productivity contemporaneous fluctuations in the separation rate explain between 40 and 50 percent of fluctuations in unemployment depending on how the data are detrended this figure becomes larger when dynamic interactions between the separation and job finding rates are considered

love hate and murder commitment devices in violent relationships many violent relationships are characterized by a high degree of cyclicality women who are the victims of domestic violence often leave and return multiple times to explain this we develop a model of time inconsistent preferences in the context of domestic violence this time inconsistency generates a demand for commitment we present supporting evidence that women in violent relationships display time inconsistent preferences by examining their demand for commitment devices we find that no drop policies which compel the prosecutor to continue with prosecution even if the victim expresses a desire to drop the charges result in an increase in reporting no drop policies also result in a decrease in the number of men murdered by intimates suggesting that some women in violent relationships move away from an extreme type of commitment device when a less costly one is offered

do wages rise with job seniority a reassessment the authors provide new estimates of the return to job seniority using a dataset similar to that employed in joseph altonji and robert shakotko do wages rise with job seniority review of economic studies 1987 and robert topel specific capital mobility and wages journal of political economy 1991 they consider the strengths and weaknesses of these studies treatment of economy wide trends their dating conventions for tenure and wages their handling of wage observations that might span multiple jobs and their estimation approaches re estimation points to an effect often years of tenure on the log wage equal to 11 which is above the preferred estimate of altonji and shakotko but far below that of topel changes in earnings distributions and in the employment relationship motivate the examination of more recent data perhaps surprisingly the return to tenure has probably increased over time

the cyclicality of the opportunity cost of employment the flow opportunity cost of moving from unemployment to employment consists of forgone public benefits and the forgone consumption value of nonworking time we construct a time series of the opportunity cost of employment using detailed microdata and administrative or national accounts data to estimate benefits levels eligibility take up consumption by labor force status hours taxes and preference parameters the opportunity cost is procyclical and volatile over the business cycle the estimated cyclicality implies far less unemployment volatility in leading models of the labor market than that observed in the data irrespective of the level of the opportunity cost

persistent trade effects of large exchange rate shocks this paper presents a theoretical basis for the argument that large exchange rate shocks such as the 1980s dollar cycle may have persistent effects on trade flows and the equilibrium exchange rate itself we begin with a partial equilibrium model in which large exchange rate fluctuations lead to entry or exit decisions that are not reversed when the currency returns to its previous level then we develop a simple model of the feedback from hysteresis in trade to the exchange rate itself here we see that a large capital inflow which leads to an initial appreciation can result in a persistent reduction in the exchange rate consistent with trade balance

the gender gap in early career wage growth in the uk the gender pay gap on entry to the labour market is approximately zero but ten years after labour market entry there is a gender wage gap of almost 25 log points this article explores the reason for this gender gap in early career wage growth considering three main hypotheses human capital job shopping and psychological theories human capital factors can explain about 11 log points job shopping about 1 5 log points and the psychological theories up to 4 5 log points depending on the specification but a substantial unexplained gap remains women who have continuous full time employment have had no children and express no desire to have them earn about 8 log points less than equivalent men after 10 years in the labour market

choosing a control group for displaced workers the vast majority of studies on the earnings of displaced workers use a control group of continuously employed workers to examine the effects of initial displacements this approach implies long lived earnings reductions following displacement even if these effects are not persistent overstating the losses relative to the true average treatment effect this paper s approach isolates the impact of an average displacement without imposing continuous employment on the control group in a comparison of the standard and alternative approaches using psid data the estimated long run earnings losses fall dramatically from 25 percent to 5 percent model simulations reinforce these empirical findings

frictional wage dispersion in search models a quantitative assessment we propose a new measure of frictional wage dispersion the mean min wage ratio for a large class of search models we show that this measure is independent of the wage offer distribution but depends on statistics of labor market turnover and on preferences under plausible preference parameterizations observed magnitudes for worker flows imply that in the basic search model and in most of its extensions frictional wage dispersion is very small notable exceptions are some of the most recent models of on the job search our new measure allows us to rationalize the diverse empirical findings in the large literature estimating structural search models

the welfare costs of worker displacement abstract recent work has documented the large persistent earnings losses associated with the displacement of high tenure workers in this paper we assess the welfare costs of this risk assuming that workers do not have access to insurance markets we find that the cost is substantial on the same order of magnitude as the cost associated with unemployment risk we also argue that long duration unemployment insurance is likely to exacerbate this cost and that government financed severance payments are a far more effective way of dealing with the displacement risk

a structural model of us aggregate job flows this paper contributes to the analysis of jobs flows dynamics through the explicit modelling of job creations and job destructions we propose a simple matching model extended for endogenous separation and tractable heterogeneity the parameters of the model are estimated using a simulation based estimation method we then test the ability of trade externalities generated by the matching process to i propagate reallocation and aggregate disturbances in the whole labor market and ii generate the observed distribution of aggregate job flows the results clearly indicate that the model is able to match the dynamics of us aggregate job flows copyright 2002 john wiley sons ltd

earnings losses of displaced workers revisited recent literature reviews conclude that job displacement results in sustained earnings losses bruce c fallick 1996 lori g kletzer 1998 and that estimates of the size of those reductions vary with the type of data used in the analysis the industry within which displacement occurs and business cycle conditions the largest estimated losses were obtained using administrative data from pennsylvania during the 1970s and 1980s louis s jacobson robert j lalonde and daniel g sullivan 1993a the data covered a period of high unemployment in a heavily indus trialized state characterized by disproportionate job losses in manufacturing thus the ability to generalize those results to more favorable economic times and states with a greater reliance on service sector employment has been questioned to address these issues administrative data are used to similarly examine the impact of job displacement on earnings losses of workers in connecticut from 1993 to 2004 the work of jacobson lalonde and sullivan jls also provided important methodologi cal advancement by adapting analytical techniques developed for program evaluation james j heckman and v joseph hotz 1989 to the context of job displacement the same techniques fixed effects and time trend estimators as those used in the original jls publication are initially employed here then the methods are extended to include matching estimators developed since their publication both nearest neighbor estimators of average treatment on the treated att and differenced average treatment on the treated datt are adapted to the context of this study heckman hidehiko ichimura and petra todd 1997 heckman et al 1998 and rajeev h dehejia and sadek wahba 1999 2002 the results presented here for connecticut differ in some ways from those found in the work of jls using data from pennsylvania in the period immediately following job loss regardless of the technique employed earnings reductions for workers displaced through mass layoff range from 32 percent to 33 percent jls reported immediate losses of more than 40 percent six years later using the same estimators as jls earnings reductions in connecticut range from 13 percent to 15 percent they report sustained losses in pennsylvania of 25 percent the smaller long term impacts in connecticut demonstrate that under more ordinary economic times esti mated losses from administrative data lie within the range observed using other data sources this finding resolves a long standing conflict among the results of high quality studies that have used differing data sources to study earnings reductions following job loss 1 using two different matching estimators earnings losses six years after mass layoff are 12 percent the matching estimators compare those who experienced mass layoff to compari sons with the same ex ante probability of the event these smaller losses are consistent with the

employment and the risk of domestic violence does the breadwinner s gender matter abstractthis article studies the effect on the risk of female victimization of the employment status of the woman and her partner we use individual level data from the violence against women surveys for spain which also provide information on income and a rich set of sociodemographic characteristics to address the potential endogeneity of the binary employment indicators we exploit exogenous geographical information on the employment and unemployment rates by gender and age within a multivariate probit framework our estimation results show that male partner employment plays a major role in the risk of physical violence while female employment only lowers it when her partner is employed too the lowest risk appears for more egalitarian couples in which both partners are employed

job matching and the wage distribution this paper brings together the microeconomic labor and the macroeconomic equilibrium views of matching in labor markets we nest a job matching model a la jovanovic 1984 into a mortensen and pissarides 1994 type equilibrium search environment the resulting framework preserves the implications of job matching theory for worker turnover and wage dynamics and it also allows for aggregation and general equilibrium analysis we obtain two new equilibrium implications of job matching and search frictions for wage inequality first learning about match quality and worker turnover map gaussian output noise into an ergodic wage distribution of empirically accurate shape unimodal skewed with a paretian right tail second high idiosyncratic productivity risk hinders learning and sorting and reduces wage inequality the equilibrium solutions for the wage distribution and for the aggregate worker flows quits to unemployment and to other jobs displacements hires provide the likelihood function of the model in closed form

international migration and the role of institutions we study the determinants of international migration with special attention to the role of institutional factors other than economic and demographic fundamentals we evaluate the impact of political institutions and of those institutions specifically targeted at attracting migrants for a dataset on 19th century migration we find that economic and demographic differentials play a major role but that the quality of institutions also matter we produce evidence that both political and migration institutions represent significant factors of attraction even after controlling for their potential endogeneity through a set of instruments exploiting colonial history and the institutions inherited from the past

tenure experience human capital and wages a tractable equilibrium search model of wage dynamics we develop and estimate an equilibrium job search model of worker careers allowing for human capital accumulation employer heterogeneity and individual level shocks wage growth is decomposed into contributions of human capital and job search within and between jobs human capital accumulation is largest for highly educated workers the contribution from job search to wage growth both within and between job declines over the fi rst ten years of a career the job shopping phase of a working life after which workers settle into high quality jobs using outside o ffers to generate gradual wage increases thus reaping the bene fits from competition between employers

life cycle labor search with stochastic match quality in the united states unemployment job finding and separation rates decline as worker age increases to explain these facts we build a search and matching model of the labor market that incorporates a life cycle structure and features random match quality as well as human capital accumulation the calibrated model successfully reproduces the empirical patterns of unemployment and job transition rates over the life cycle and generates plausible wage implications we then explore the efficiency implications of the model and find that the differences between the market and planner allocations are more important for older workers

earnings losses and labor mobility over the life cycle an extensive empirical literature has documented that workers with high tenure suffer large and persistent earnings losses when they get displaced we study the reasons behind these losses in a tractable search model with a life cycle dimension endogenous job mobility worker and match heterogeneity the model reconciles key characteristics of the u s labor market large average transition rates a large share of stable jobs and the earnings losses from displacement we decompose the earnings losses and find that only 50 result from skill losses endogenous reactions and selection account for the remainder our findings have important implications for the welfare costs of displacement and labor market policy

tariffs and growth in the late 19th century the paper estimates the correlation between tariffs and economic growth in the late 19th century in the context of three types of growth equation unconditional convergence equations conditional convergence equations and factor accumulation models it does so for a panel of ten countries between 1875 and 1914 tariffs were positively correlated with growth in these countries during this period economic theory is ambiguous as regards the relationship between trade policy and growth the growth literature of the past decade has produced an impressive array of models in which protection can either increase or reduce long run growth rates grossman and helpman 1991 rivera batiz and romer 1991 stokey 1991 young 1991 such theoretical ambiguity invites empirical research while new growth theory is ambiguous on the subject the new empirical growth literature has produced a consensus that free trade is positively associated with growth based on evidence from the late 20th century but see rodrlguez and rodrik 1999 for a sceptical review of the literature the clear

measuring the performance of a protected infant industry the case of brazilian microcomputers until the beginnings of the collor presidency in 1990 the brazilian government strongly protected domestic producers of electronics goods using hedonic methods the authors analyze systematic evidence of the performance of the brazilian microcomputer industry and compare it with international standards their analysis highlights rapid rates of advance in brazil but lower rates than potential international competition technical frontiers typically lagged price performance practices in international markets by at least three years and by as much as five foregone buyer surplus due to protection had to be quite high approaching 20 percent of domestic expenditure on microcomputers copyright 1995 by mit press

declining labor turnover and turbulence abstract the rate of job loss has been on a secular decline for the last four decades or longer changes in demographics or industry composition do not account for the trend this paper seeks to identify the possible sources of the decline using a simple search and matching model with two types of workers experienced and inexperienced where the former type faces a risk of skill loss during unemployment the calibrated model suggests that a higher risk of skill loss during unemployment results in a lower job separation rate because workers accept lower wages in exchange for job security various other potential hypotheses are also examined

duration dependence and labor market conditions evidence from a field experiment this article studies the role of employer behavior in generating negative duration dependence the adverse effect of a longer unemployment spell by sending fictitious resumes to real job postings in 100 u s cities our results indicate that the likelihood of receiving a callback for an interview significantly decreases with the length of a worker s unemployment spell with the majority of this decline occurring during the first eight months we explore how this effect varies with local labor market conditions and find that duration de pendence is stronger when the local labor market is tighter this result is consistent with the prediction of a broad class of screening models in which employers use the unemployment spell length as a signal of unobserved productivity and recognize that this signal is less informative in weak labor markets jel code j64

work histories and lifetime unemployment a long standing question in economics is how important unobserved differences across workers are for explaining unemployment i revisit this topic using variation in lifetime unemployment across workers in u s data a comparison of workers often unemployed with the rest shows that although differences in job finding rates increase over the course of a career differences in job separation rates are large right from the start i develop a directed search model with symmetric unobserved heterogeneity in which agents learn workers types from their labor market histories to rationalize these findings the model cannot match the data if unobserved heterogeneity is neglected

the enfranchisement of women and the welfare state abstract we offer a rationale for the decision to extend the franchise to women within a politico economic model where men are richer than women women display a higher preference for public goods and women s disenfranchisement carries a societal cost men and women are matched within households which are the center of the decision process we derive the optimal tax rate under two alternative regimes a males only enfranchisement regime and a universal enfranchisement regime the latter is associated with a higher tax rate but as industrialization raises the reward to intellectual labor relative to physical labor women s relative wage increases thus decreasing the difference between the tax rates when the cost of disenfranchisement becomes higher than the cost of the higher tax rate which applies under universal enfranchisement the male median voter is better off extending the franchise to women a consequent expansion of the size of government is only to be expected in societies with a relatively high cost of disenfranchisement we empirically test the implications of the model over the 1870 1930 period we proxy the gender wage gap with the level of per capita income and the cost of disenfranchisement with the presence of catholicism which is associated with a more traditional view of women s role and thus a lower cost the gender gap in the preferences for public goods is proxied by the availability of divorce which implies marital instability and a more vulnerable economic position for women consistently with the model s predictions women s suffrage is correlated positively with per capita income and negatively with the presence of catholicism and the availability of divorce while women s suffrage increases the size of government only in non catholic countries

do wages rise with job seniority many previous studies have found a strong positive effect of job seniority tenure on wages this paper re examines the evidence using a simple instrumental variables scheme to deal with the fact that tenure is likely to be related to unobserved individual and job characteristics that affect the wage we use the variation of tenure over a given job match as the principal instrumental variable for tenure the variation in tenure over the job is uncorrelated by construction with the fixed individual and job match specific components of the error term of the wage equation our main finding is that the partial effect of tenure on wages is small and that general labour market experience and job shopping account for most wage growth over a career the strong cross section relationship between tenure and wages is due primarily to heterogeneity bias prior researchers see mincer and jovanovic 1981 bartel and borjas 1981 borjas 1981 cline 1979 and mellow 1981 and many others have established that job seniority has a strong positive relationship with wage rates in a cross section or a cross section time series of individuals in this paper we re evaluate the evidence concerning the partial effects on wages of job seniority tenure and total labour market experience the extent to which wages rise with tenure is important for several reasons first and foremost the wage tenure profile is a fundamental question about the structure of earnings over careers second the wage tenure profile is a key determinant of the extent to which the earnings power of individuals is tied to specific jobs and it is important for assessment of the losses suffered by displaced workers hamermesh 1984 third evidence that wages rise with job tenure has been used to explain the decline in quits with tenure since the wage growth on the current job lowers the probability that the worker will locate a superior alternative a growing theoretical literature surveyed in parsons 1984 has taken the evidence of a strong wage tenure profile at face value and sought to provide an explanation for the relationship the most prominent explanation is the theory of specific human capital oi 1962 becker 1962 mincer 1974 parsons 1972 kuratani 1973 and hashimoto 1980 in which the growth of wages with tenure holding experience constant is attributed to the worker s share of investments in firm specific skills more recently lazear 1981 has presented a supervision model of wage growth in which firms defer compensation as a means of inducing workers not to shirk freeman 1977 and harris and holmstrom 1982 provide an explanation for wage growth based on an insurance motive salop and salop 1976 nickell 1976 and guasch and weiss 1982 present adverse selection models of wage growth in which firms use a wage tenure profile as a

turbulence and unemployment in a job matching model according to ljungqvist and sargent 1998 high european unemployment since the 1980s can be explained by a rise in economic turbulence leading to greater numbers of unemployed workers with obsolete skills these workers refuse new jobs due to high unemployment benefits in this paper we reassess the turbulence unemployment relationship using a matching model with endogenous job destruction in our model higher turbulence reduces the incentives of employed workers to leave their jobs if turbulence has only a tiny effect on the skills of workers experiencing endogenous separation then the results of ljungqvist and sargent 1998 2004 are reversed and higher turbulence leads to a reduction in unemployment thus changes in turbulence cannot provide an explanation for european unemployment that reconciles the incentives of both unemployed and employed workers jel e24 j64

the un importance of unemployment fluctuations for the welfare cost of business cycles abstract this paper studies the cost of business cycles within a real business cycle model with search and matching frictions in the labor market we endogenously link both the cyclical fluctuations and the mean level of unemployment to the aggregate business cycle risk the key result of the paper is that business cycles are costly fluctuations over the cycle induce a higher average unemployment rate since employment is nonlinear in the job finding rate and the past unemployment rate we show this analytically for a special case of the model we then calibrate the model to u s data for the calibrated model too business cycles cause higher average unemployment the welfare cost of business cycles can easily be an order of magnitude larger than lucas s 1987 estimate the cost of business cycles is the higher the lower the value of nonemployment is or equivalently the lower is the disutility of work the ensuing cost of business cycles rises further when workers skills depreciate during unemployment

persistence of employment fluctuations a model of recurring job loss standard models of employment fluctuations cannot reconcile the unemployment rate s remarkable persistence with the high job finding rates found in worker flows data a matching model emphasizing high hazard rates among newly formed firm worker matches can resolve this shortcoming in the model matches are experience goods consequently newly employed workers face higher hazard rates following a job loss workers may experience several short lived jobs before finding stable employment at an aggregate level an initial burst of job loss precipitates a steady flow of recurring job loss a simulation shows that this recurring job loss can account for the fact that the unemployment rate remains elevated for as much as 4 or 5 years following an initial jump intuitively the labour market frictions associated with the difficult and time consuming process of matching unemployed workers with appropriate jobs represent an appealing way to enhance conventional dynamic general equilibrium models of economic fluctuations that generally exhibit very little internal propagation of business cycle shocks 1 nevertheless although conventional matching models such as the canonical mortensen and pissarides 1994 model successfully explain many other important features of the labour market they fail to explain the high degree of persistence observed in the u s unemployment rate the primary reason for this failure is that data on labour market flows show that unemployed workers actually find jobs quite quickly therefore following a shock that triggers a burst of job loss the high job finding rate implies that the unemployment rate in these models returns quite rapidly back toward its average level this represents a significant obstacle to the notion that frictions in the labour market account for much of the propagation of business cycle shocks this paper asserts that existing matching models fail to capture an important feature of the labour market that can reconcile the dramatic persistence of the unemployment rate with the evidence of high job finding rates specifically although unemployed workers find jobs quickly the newly found jobs often last only a short time after an initial job loss a worker may experience several short lived jobs before settling into more stable employment this recurring job loss slows the pace at which the unemployment rate returns to its normal level following an adverse shock

wage risk and employment risk over the life cycle we specify a structural life cycle model of consumption labour supply and job mobility in an economy with search frictions that allows us to distinguish between different sources of risk and to estimate their effects the sources of risk are shocks to productivity job destruction the process of job arrival when employed and unemployed and match level heterogeneity our model allows for four main social insurance programmes in contrast to simpler models that attribute all income fluctuations to shocks our framework allows us to disentangle the effects of the shocks from the responses to these shocks estimates of productivity risk once we control for employment risk and for individual labour supply choices are substantially lower than estimates that attribute all wage variation to productivity risk increases in productivity risk impose a considerable welfare loss on individuals and induce substantial precautionary saving increases in employment risk have large effects on output and primarily through this channel affect welfare the welfare value of government programs such as food stamps which partially insure productivity risk is greater than the value of unemployment insurance which provides partial insurance against employment risk and no insurance against persistent shocks

the importance of lifetime jobs in the u s economy though the u s labor market is justly notorious for high turnover and consequent high unemployment it also provides stable near lifetime employment to an important fraction of the labor force this paper investigates patterns of job duration by age race and sex with the following major conclusions 1 the typical worker today is holding a job which has lasted or will last about eight years over a quarter of all workers are holding jobs which will last twenty years or more sixty percent hold jobs which will last five years or more 2 the jobs held by middle aged workers with more than ten years of tenure are extremely stable over the span of a decade only twenty to thirty percent come to an end 3 among workers aged thirty and above about forty percent are currently working in jobs which eventually will last twenty years or more three quarters are in jobs which will last five years or more 4 the duration of employment among blacks is just as long as among whites even though the jobs held by blacks are worse in almost every other dimension they are no more unstable than those held by whites 5 women s jobs are substantially shorter than men s on the average only about a quarter of all women over the age of thirty are employed in jobs which will last over twenty years whereas over half of men over thirty are holding these near lifetime jobs this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

the cost of job loss this article identifies an equilibrium theory of wage formation and endogenous quit turnover in a labour market with on the job search where risk averse workers accumulate human capital through learning by doing and lose skills while unemployed optimal contracting implies the wage paid increases with experience and tenure indirect inference using german data determines the deep parameters of the model the estimated model not only reproduces the large and persistent fall in wages and earnings following job loss a new structural decomposition finds foregone human capital accumulation while unemployed is the worker s major cost of job loss

is unemployment insurance addictive evidence from the benefit durations of repeat users the author finds evidence that the past occurrence of a spell of insured unemployment lengthens the duration of future spells descriptive statistics from canadian administrative data covering mid 1971 to early 1990 suggest that unemployment insurance ui claimants tend to spend a longer and longer time collecting benefits with each additional claim they make this finding contradicts the implication of static neoclassical models that successive ui spells should be of the same length the author hypothesizes that the stigma attached to receiving unemployment benefits erodes with each new ui claim an individual files

penalized or protected gender and the consequences of nonstandard and mismatched employment histories millions of workers are employed in positions that deviate from the full time standard employment relationship or work in jobs that are mismatched with their skills education or experience yet little is known about how employers evaluate workers who have experienced these employment arrangements limiting our knowledge about how part time work temporary agency employment and skills underutilization affect workers labor market opportunities drawing on original field and survey experiment data i examine three questions 1 what are the consequences of having a nonstandard or mismatched employment history for workers labor market opportunities 2 are the effects of nonstandard or mismatched employment histories different for men and women and 3 what are the mechanisms linking nonstandard or mismatched employment histories to labor market outcomes the field experiment shows that skills underutilization is as scarring for workers as a year of unemployment but that there are limited penalties for workers with histories of temporary agency employment additionally although men are penalized for part time employment histories women face no penalty for part time work the survey experiment reveals that employers perceptions of workers competence and commitment mediate these effects these findings shed light on the consequences of changing employment relations for the distribution of labor market opportunities in the new economy

russia s commercial policy 2008 11 modernization crisis and the wto accession this paper examines the commercial policy of russia during 2008 11 a time of global financial crisis which coincided with an announced russian modernization programme in 2008 russia introduced a development strategy to limit its dependence on natural resources however the government relied heavily on this income for the planned modernization programme the falling price of oil in 2008 9 led to a tightened government budget constraint this situation induced russia towards wider use of more traditional instruments of trade policy such as tariff policy as well as an import substitution strategy the creation of the customs union and a pause in the wto accession process russia has been found by the global trade alert gta initiative to be one of the main users of protectionist policies since november 2008 with the oil price recovery from september 2010 russia had been back in the wto accession process on revised terms and conditions the wto ministerial conference in geneva approved the accession package of the russian federation on 16 december 2011 copyright 2012 oxford university press

occupational mobility and wage inequality in this article we argue that wage inequality and occupational mobility are intimately related we are motivated by our empirical findings that human capital is occupation specific and that the fraction of workers switching occupations in the u s was as high as 16 a year in the early 1970 s and had increased to 21 by the mid 1990 s we develop a general equilibrium model with occupation specific human capital and heterogeneous experience levels within occupations we find that the model calibrated to match the level of occupational mobility in the 1970 s accounts quite well for the level of within group wage inequality in that period next we find that the model calibrated to match the increase in occupational mobility accounts for over 90 of the increase in wage inequality between the 1970 s and the 1990 s the theory is also quantitatively consistent with the level and increase in the short term variability of earnings copyright wiley blackwell

active labor market policy evaluations a meta analysis this article presents a meta analysis of recent microeconometric evaluations of active labour market policies we categorise 199 programme impacts from 97 studies conducted between 1995 and 2007 job search assistance programmes yield relatively favourable programme impacts whereas public sector employment programmes are less effective training programmes are associated with positive medium term impacts although in the short term they often appear ineffective we also find that the outcome variable used to measure programme impact matters but neither the publication status of a study nor the use of a randomised design is related to the sign or significance of the programme estimate

occupational specificity of human capital we find that returns to occupational tenure are substantial everything else being constant 5 years of occupational tenure are associated with an increase in wages of 12 20 moreover when occupational experience is taken into account tenure with an industry or employer has relatively little importance in accounting for the wage one receives this finding is consistent with human capital being occupation specific

two questions about european unemployment a general equilibrium search model makes layoff costs affect the aggregate unemployment rate in ways that depend on equilibrium proportions of frictional and structural unemployment that in turn depend on the generosity of government unemployment benefits and skill losses among newly displaced workers the model explains how before the 1970s lower flows into unemployment gave europe lower unemployment rates than the united states and also how after 1980 higher durations have kept unemployment rates in europe persistently higher than in the united states these outcomes arise from the way europe s higher firing costs and more generous unemployment compensation make its unemployment rate respond to bigger skill losses among newly displaced workers those bigger skill losses also explain why u s workers have experienced more earnings volatility since 1980 and why especially among older workers hazard rates of gaining employment in europe now fall sharply with increases in the duration of unemployment

the timing of welfare payments and intimate partner violence i examine transfer schedules for the temporary assistance for needy families tanf program and find a causal relationship between the time directly after welfare payments and intimate partner violence against women this study supports the hypothesis that the husband uses threats of violence as an instrument to gain control over the allocation of household resources and suggests that the increased incidence in physical violence after welfare payments is associated with alcohol use additionally i find that states that pay tanf recipients twice a month do not have this effect on threats of violence this suggests that smaller more frequent payments may reduce the husband s incentive to use verbal violence as a bargaining tool jel i38 j18 j12

infant industry protection in the steel rail industry abstract this paper examines a particular instance of infant industry protection the case of the u s steel rail industry it analyzes the joint roles of learning by doing changing resource endowments and tariff protection in the emergence of this industry making use of estimated demand and cost parameters the paper simulates what would have happened to prices production and welfare under free trade i calculate that despite strong learning effects the steel rail tariff hurt rail users in both the short and long runs the tariff s overall effect on welfare was positive but fairly small

skill accumulation in the market and at home abstract an evolving outside option is introduced into a stochastic directed search model with skill loss during non employment using multi spell data from the sipp i show that average reemployment wages are only mildly sensitive to unemployment duration while the job finding probability is highly sensitive to duration with evidence of true duration dependence in both variables though untargeted the model produces a quantitatively accurate decline in the job finding probability and starting wage improving over a model with a fixed outside option the addition of aggregate shocks leads to an nonlinear response of the unemployment and participation rates during and after recessions with more severe recessions resulting in stronger hysteresis

job stability in the united states two key attributes of a job are its wage and its duration much has been made of changes in the wage distribution in the 1980s but little attention has been given to job durations since hall we fill this void by examining the temporal evolution of job retention rates in u s labor markets using data assembled from the sequence of current population survey job tenure supplements there have been relative declines in job stability for some of the groups that experienced the sharpest declines in relative wages however we find that aggregate job retention rates have remained stable

the effects of unemployment and underemployment on employment opportunities results from a correspondence audit of the labor market for college graduates the authors use data from a resume audit to estimate the impact of unemployment and underemployment on the employment prospects of recent college graduates they find no statistical evidence linking unemployment spells of different durations to employment opportunities by contrast college graduates who are underemployed have callback rates that are 30 lower than those of applicants who are adequately employed the null effects associated with unemployment and the adverse effects associated with underemployment are robust across cities with relatively tight and loose labor market conditions internship experience obtained while completing one s degree substantially reduces the negative effects of underemployment the data support the proposition that employers view underemployment as a strong signal of lower expected productivity

job displacement risk and the cost of business cycles this paper analyzes the welfare costs of business cycles when workers face uninsurable job displacement risk that has a cyclical component using a simple general equilibrium model with incomplete markets this paper shows the following result for sufficiently high degree of risk aversion at least one cyclical variations in the long term earnings losses of displaced workers can generate arbitrarily large cost of business cycles even if the second moments of the distribution of individual income changes are constant over the cycle thus the previous literature which has either disregarded long term earnings losses of displaced workers or dealt with them only indirectly using second moment analysis might have severely under estimated the welfare cost of business cycles in addition to the theoretical analysis this paper also conducts a quantitative study of the cost of business cycles using empirical evidence on the long term earnings losses of u s workers the quantitative analysis suggests that cyclical variations in job displacement risk generate sizable cost of business cycles

crisis era protectionism and the multilateral governance of trade an assessment this paper examines the multilateral governance of trade along with the prospects for its meaningful reform in the light of recent crisis era discrimination against the many types of cross border commerce prior episodes of protectionism provide a useful benchmark the findings are not optimistic the current set of multilateral rules is incomplete has weak incentives for compliance and can be readily circumvented only a far reaching revision of these rules could induce more restraint

are workers permanently scarred by job displacements this paper investigates whether workers suffer lasting scars following job displacements using david t ellwood s 1982 terminology scars represent persistent effects whereas blemishes are transitory adjustments which dissipate over time more precisely dislocated individuals are defined as scarred if they continue to earn less or to be unemployed more than their nondisplaced counterparts even after the conclusion of a several year adjustment period