habits costly investment and current account dynamics abstract we analyze the current account dynamics for a small country model with habit forming consumers and costly investment the model has several empirical and policy implications i it is consistent with stylized facts regarding the effects of productivity shocks and increases in fiscal spending and regarding the savings investment co movement ii the long run effect of a temporary shock on net foreign assets is often opposite to that of a permanent shock iii under strong habit persistence the welfare dynamics are sluggish so that a beneficial tax financed fiscal policy may have a harmful hangover effect on welfare

the perceived returns to education and the demand for schooling economists emphasize the link between market returns to education and investments in schooling though many studies estimate these returns with earnings data it is the perceived returns that affect schooling decisions and these perceptions may be inaccurate using survey data for eighth grade boys in the dominican republic we find that the perceived returns to secondary school are extremely low despite high measured returns students at randomly selected schools given information on the higher measured returns completed on average 0 20 0 35 more years of school over the next four years than those who were not

the welfare impact of land redistribution evidence from a quasi experimental initiative in malawi summary land reform may be an effective means of reducing poverty in many developing countries where policy efforts have recently embraced a decentralized market based approach to land redistribution we use household panel data combined with a quasi experimental program to assess the impact of a joint malawi world bank land program on household well being double difference and matching methods are used to address identification sources of bias results point to average positive effects on several productive outcomes of beneficiaries while no effects are found with respect to access to social services there is also evidence of heterogeneous effects by gender and inheritance systems

a major in science initial beliefs and final outcomes for college major and dropout taking advantage of unique longitudinal data we provide the first characterization of what college students believe at the time of entrance about their final major relate these beliefs to actual major outcomes and provide an understanding of why students hold the initial beliefs about majors that they do the data collection and analysis are based directly on a conceptual model in which a student s final major is best viewed as the end result of a learning process we find that students enter school quite optimistic about obtaining a science degree but that relatively few students end up graduating with a science degree the substantial overoptimism about completing a degree in science can be attributed largely to students beginning school with misperceptions about their ability to perform well academically in science copyright 2014 oxford university press

price and enforcement effects on cocaine and marijuana demand this article estimates equations for past year cocaine and marijuana use among adult and juvenile respondents of the 1990 97 national household surveys on drug abuse unlike most previous studies we control for the monetary price of marijuana probabilities of arrest for marijuana and cocaine possession and state fixed effects results indicate that cocaine prices are inversely related to adult cocaine and marijuana demand but are unrelated to juvenile drug demand marijuana price effects are always statistically insignificant estimated price effects are inflated when state effects are omitted and increases in each arrest probability diminish both types of drug use jel k42 118 d12 i introduction the responsiveness of cocaine and marijuana demand to changes in their prices is a key determinant of the effectiveness of illegal drug enforcement policy by harassing sellers and seizing drugs enforcement attempts to reduce the consumption of illegal drugs by restricting their supply and thereby raising their prices even if enforcement is able to increase drug prices its success in reducing illegal drug use depends on the elasticity of drug demand with respect to drug prices reciprocally unless this elasticity is close to zero legalization of cocaine and marijuana would likely increase their consumption substantially by drastically reducing their prices a complementary goal of enforcing cocaine and marijuana possession violations is to reduce their demand at prevailing prices this occurs through both incarceration of drug users who will no longer be able to purchase drugs and deterrence of drug consumption by potential users price and enforcement effects may be dissimilar if consumers respond differently to changes in their budget constraints than to changes in expected punishment in particular the relative magnitudes of the responses in drug demand to changes in possession arrest probabilities and prices is an important determinant of how enforcement resources can most efficiently be allocated between buyers and sellers but in spite of this policy relevance there is little direct evidence on the relationship between arrest probabilities for cocaine and marijuana possession and demand for these drugs meanwhile the relationship between the consumption of cocaine and marijuana is both theoretically and empirically uncertain in theory cocaine and marijuana act as substitutes in the production of intoxication but also can provide complementary intoxicating effects empirically this relationship determines whether policies designed to reduce demand for one drug have effects on the other that reinforce or counteract the impacts of policies designed specifically for that other drug for instance marijuana possession arrests more than doubled nationally between 1990 and 1997 both in number and as a fraction of total arrests this might have reinforced any effect of cocaine possession enforcement on cocaine use if the two drugs are complements but had an unintended counteractive effect if they are substitutes this study provides evidence on the impacts of cocaine and marijuana prices and possession violation enforcement on the demand for these drugs we analyze data on past year cocaine and marijuana use among 12 to 39 year old respondents to the annual 1990 97 national household surveys on drug abuse nhsda along with various individual characteristics the set of explanatory variables includes regional prices of cocaine and marijuana state level measures of the probability of arrest for cocaine and marijuana possession and fixed effects for states and years our goals are to estimate the size of the response in the demand for cocaine and marijuana to changes in their prices to do the same with respect to changes in possession violation enforcement intensity and to examine whether unmeasured state characteristics can potentially bias estimated price and enforcement effects

direct evidence on sticky information from the revision behavior of professional forecasters we provide direct evidence on the sticky information model of mankiw and reis 2002 by examining how frequently individual professional forecasters revise their forecasts we draw interest rate and unemployment rate forecasts from the monthly wall street journal surveys conducted between 2003 and 2013 consistent with the sticky information model we find that forecasters frequently leave their forecasts unrevised but find evidence that revision frequency increases following larger changes in the information set we also find revision frequencies became more sensitive to new information after the 2008 financial crisis but only weak evidence that frequent revisers forecast more accurately

agency relationships in family firms theory and evidence does owner management necessarily eliminate the agency costs of ownership drawing on agency literature and on the economic theory of the household we argue that private ownership and owner management expose privately held owner managed firms to agency threats ignored by jensen s and meckling s 1976 agency model private ownership and owner management not only reduce the effectiveness of external control mechanisms they also expose firms to a self control problem created by incentives that cause owners to take actions which harm themselves as well as those around them jensen 1994 p 43 thus shareholders have incentive to invest resources in curbing both managerialand owner opportunism we extend this thesis to the domain of the family firm after developing hypotheses which describe how family dynamics and specifically altruism exacerbate agency problems experienced by these privately held owner managed firms we use data obtained from a large scale survey of family businesses to field test our hypotheses and find evidence which suggests support for our proposed theory finally we discuss the implications of our theory for research on family and other types of privately held owner managed firms

determinants of college major choice identification using an information experiment this article studies the determinants of college major choice using an experimentally generated panel of beliefs obtained by providing students with information on the true population distribution of various major specific characteristics students logically revise their beliefs in response to the information and their subjective beliefs about future major choice are associated with beliefs about their own earnings and ability we estimate a rich model of college major choice using the panel of beliefs data while expected earnings and perceived ability are a significant determinant of major choice heterogeneous tastes are the dominant factor in the choice of major analyses that ignore the correlation in tastes with earnings expectations inflate the role of earnings in college major choices we conclude by computing the welfare gains from the information experiment and find positive average welfare gains

survey measures of expected u s inflation of real interest rates and cash flows for decisions concerning investment expenditures international capital flows and exchange rate movements hinge in large part on expected real yield differentials across countries the federal reserve needs reliable measures of expected inflation to formulate and gauge the thrust of monetary policy in fact inflation expectations have become more important to the fed given the diminished stability of the link between the monetary aggregates and gdp expenditures since the early 1980s and the greater role which has been thrust upon expected real short term interest rates in the implementation of federal reserve policy the issue of rationality of inflation expectations that is the extent to which agents form expectations without making systematic mistakes in their beliefs about what inflation will be is important if inflation expectations are formed rationally labor and financial markets will strongly tend to neutralize the potential redistributive effects of inflation over time financial capital will flow efficiently within and across national borders moreover some of the stronger claims of new classical macroeconomics like the claim that only unexpected monetary policy actions will

economic benefits and costs of land redistribution in zimbabwe in the early 1980s summary evidence on the performance of zimbabwe s early land reform effort is mixed in this paper we use a unique micro data set with information on land reform beneficiaries and a control group of nonbeneficiaries and employ propensity score matching to examine household and per capita benefits associated with land reform combining this information with estimates on the cost of land reform we find that the economic return is positive but modest its magnitude depends on assumptions about the opportunity costs of land and the reasons for the observed increase in the size of resettled households

economic relationship between access to land and rural poverty in nepal in the present socio economic structure of nepal land is the main source of income and consumption for the majority of nepalese this study analyses the economic relationship between access to land and poverty in nepal by establishing the link between land and consumption as well as land and income a generalised additive model gam and ordinary least squares ols demonstrate that greater access to land increases income and consumption of the household and thereby reduces poverty the significant marginal value of land for both consumption and income implies that an effective land reform policy could well be an effective approach to alleviate rural poverty however land reform must come as part of a larger overhaul cluster analysis shows that land reform should target appropriate subgroups within the community in order to differentiate those who would make use of the extra land from those who would not and apply appropriate strategies to each subgroup it reveals the importance of subgroups in determining an appropriate strategy for tackling poverty

expectation formation in a new environment evidence from the german reunification abstract exploiting the german reunification we study how households adapt to a new environment in their macroeconomic forecasting east germans expect higher inflation than west germans decades after reunification these differences are likely driven by the persistent effect of the inflation shock after reunification which contrasted strongly with experiences of zero inflation in the gdr east germans higher inflation expectations are reflected in higher consumer debt and lower bond holdings our findings suggest that large changes in the environment can permanently impede people s ability to form expectations with an important role for the interaction of experiences before and after the event

welfare dynamics in rural kenya and madagascar this paper presents comparative qualitative and quantitative evidence from rural kenya and madagascar in an attempt to untangle the causality behind persistent poverty we find striking differences in welfare dynamics depending on whether one uses total income including stochastic terms and inevitable measurement error or the predictable structural component of income based on a household s asset holdings our results suggest the existence of multiple dynamic asset and structural income equilibria consistent with the poverty traps hypothesis furthermore we find supporting evidence of locally increasing returns to assets and of risk management behaviour consistent with poor households defence of a critical asset threshold through asset smoothing

information rigidity and the expectations formation process a simple framework and new facts we propose a new approach to test the full information rational expectations hypothesis which can identify whether rejections of the null arise from irrationality or limited information this approach quantifies the economic significance of departures from the null by quantifying the underlying degree of information rigidity applying this approach to u s and international data of professional forecasters and other agents yields pervasive evidence consistent with models of imperfect information furthermore the proposed approach sheds new light on policies such as inflation targeting and those leading to the great moderation affecting expectations finally we document evidence of state dependence in the expectations formation process

land reforms poverty reduction and economic growth evidence from india recognition of the importance of institutions that provide security of property rights and relatively equal access to economic resources to a broad cross section of society has renewed interest in the potential of asset redistribution including land reforms empirical analysis of the impact of such policies is however scant and often contradictory this paper uses panel household data from india together with state level variation in the implementation of land reform to address some of the deficiencies of earlier studies the results suggest that land reform had a significant and positive impact on income growth and accumulation of human and physical capital the paper draws policy implications especially from the fact that the observed impact of land reform seems to have declined over time

how do firms form their expectations new survey evidence author s coibion o gorodnichenko y kumar s abstract 2018 american economic association all rights reserved we survey new zealand firms and document novel facts about their macroeconomic beliefs there is widespread dispersion in beliefs about past and future macroeconomic conditions especially inflation this dispersion in beliefs is consistent with firms incentives to collect and process information using experimental methods we find that firms update their beliefs in a bayesian manner when presented with new information about the economy and that changes in their beliefs affect their decisions inflation is not generally perceived as being important to business decisions so firms devote few resources to collecting and processing information about inflation

consumer habituation this paper examines how consumers willingness to pay for goods is determined by past patterns of consumption the central result is atheorem of interior maximum which states that willingness to pay for a good is maximized at a moderate level of habitual consumption the theorem is derived from a simple model of adaptive behavior that involves a shifting s shaped value function the detailed analysis of the impact of consumption frequency and intensity on willingness to pay reveals an unsuspected implication of diminishing sensitivity even as it leads to a formalization of consumer habituation patterns including sensitization habituation and response recovery upon withdrawal that matches and integrates the most robust empirical regularities attendant on nonassociative learning in neurobiology and behavioral psychology an examination of the implications for demand dynamics and pricing highlights deterministic recurrent and transient patterns of consumption at higher price points

income distribution and macroeconomics this paper analyzes the role of wealth distribution in macroeconomics through investment in human capital it is shown that in the presence of credit markets imperfections and indivisibilities in investment in human capital the initial distribution of wealth affects aggregate output and investment both in the short and in the long run as there are multiple steady states this paper therefore provides an additional explanation for the persistent differences in per capita output across countries furthermore the paper shows that cross country differences in macroeconomic adjustment to aggregate shocks can be attributed among other factors to differences in wealth and income distribution across countries

household income dynamics a four country story in this article we analyse the dynamics of household per capita incomes using longitudinal data from indonesia south africa spain and venezuela we find that in all four countries reported initial income and job changes of the head are consistently the most important variables in accounting for income changes overall and for initially poor households we also find that changes in income are more important than changes in household size and that changes in labour earnings are more important than changes in other sources of household income

assessing the extent and nature of chronic poverty in low income countries issues and evidence discussions of chronic poverty have mostly considered its monetary dimensions with current evidence suggesting that such poverty is much more transient than chronic but chronic poverty is a real and important phenomenon potentially more important quantitatively than it first appears once account is taken of different methodological approaches and inevitable measurement difficulties the chronic poor have distinctive characteristics such as lack of assets or high dependency rates which may account for their persistent poverty the paper argues that it is also necessary to develop concepts of chronic poverty further covering relevant nonmonetary dimensions and not just relying on panel data

taxation or regulation looking for a good anti smoking policy abstract this paper investigates the relative ability of two anti smoking policies taxes and regulation in inducing reductions in cigarette consumption and in providing incentives to stop smoking or not to start to our results based on canadian data show that cigarette demand responds to taxes elasticity of 0 28 but not to regulation while the converse is true for the proportion of smokers in the population

inflation expectations and behavior do survey respondents act on their beliefs we compare the inflation expectations reported by consumers in a survey with their behavior in a financially incentivized investment experiment the survey is found to be informative in the sense that the beliefs reported by the respondents are correlated with their choices in the experiment more importantly we find evidence that most respondents act on their inflation expectations showing patterns consistent with economic theory respondents whose behavior cannot be rationalized tend to have lower education and lower numeracy and financial literacy these findings help confirm the relevance of inflation expectations surveys and provide support to the microfoundations of modern macroeconomic models

parental substance use and foster care evidence from two methamphetamine supply shocks foster care caseloads have nearly doubled over the last three decades parental methamphetamine meth use grew significantly during the same period while child welfare workers and law enforcement claim that parental meth use contributes to foster care growth the evidence for a causal effect has not been determined this paper presents the first evidence of a causal effect of meth on foster care admissions using two exogenous supply side interventions in meth markets from the late 1990s for identification first we find that restrictions on meth precursor distribution caused meth use proxied by white meth self referred treatment cases to decline 4 1 second using two stage least squares we estimate a positive elasticity of foster care cases with respect to meth use of 1 54 we also estimate elasticities of 1 03 and 1 49 for cases of child neglect and parental abuse respectively these results suggest that child welfare policies should be designed specifically for the children of meth using parents jel i12 j13 k42

disagreement and biases in inflation expectations empirical work documents substantial disagreement in inflation expectations obtained from survey data furthermore the extent of such disagreement varies systematically over time in a way that reflects the level and variance of current inflation this paper oers a simple explanation for these facts based on asymmetries in the forecasters costs of over and under predicting inflation our model implies biased forecasts with positive serial correlation in forecast errors and a cross sectional dispersion that rises with the level and the variance of the inflation rate it also implies that forecast errors at dierent horizons can be predicted through the spread between the short and long term variance of inflation we find empirically that these patterns are present in inflation forecasts from the survey of professional forecasters a constant bias component not explained by asymmetric loss and rational expectations is required to explain the shift in the sign of the bias observed for a substantial portion of forecasters around 1982

do women shy away from competition do men compete too much we examine whether men and women of the same ability differ in their selection into a competitive environment participants in a laboratory experiment solve a real task first under a noncompetitive piece rate and then a competitive tournament incentive scheme although there are no gender differences in performance men select the tournament twice as much as women when choosing their compensation scheme for the next performance while 73 percent of the men select the tournament only 35 percent of the women make this choice this gender gap in tournament entry is not explained by performance and factors such as risk and feedback aversion only playa negligible role instead the tournament entry gap is driven by men being more overconfident and by gender differences in preferences for performing in a competition the result is that women shy away from competition and men embrace it

a theory of rational addiction we develop a theory of rational addiction in which rationality means a consistent plan to maximize utility over time strong addiction to a good requires a big effect of past consumption of the good on current consumption such powerful complementarities cause some steady states to be unstable they are an important part of our analysis because even small deviations from the consumption at an unstable steady state can lead to large cumulative rises over time in addictive consumption or to rapid falls in consumption to abstention our theory also implies that cold turkey is used to end strong addictions that addicts often go on binges that addicts respond more to permanent than to temporary changes in prices of addictive goods and that anxiety and tensions can precipitate an addiction

price knowledge in household demand for utility services a household s decision to acquire price knowledge is endogenous in the demand for utility services and may affect elasticities and consumption levels a simultaneous equation model with endogenous switching is developed to evaluate the effects of price knowledge and other sources of heterogeneity results indicate informed households were more responsive to average and marginal price signals informed households also use less water but this is due to heterogeneity rather than price knowledge controlling for heterogeneity price knowledge actually increases monthly water usage the implications of accounting for differences in price knowledge in utility demand modeling and demand management policy are discussed

economic literacy and inflation expectations evidence from a laboratory experiment we present experimental evidence of a link between economic literacy and inflation forecast accuracy the experiment investigates two channels through which economic literacy may enable better forecasts i choice of information and ii use of information more literate subjects choose more relevant information and use the given information more effectively starting from a 10th percentile score the boost in literacy from taking an economics course predicts a 0 64 standard deviation decline in mean absolute forecasting error our findings suggest that a significant portion of demographic heterogeneity in inflation expectations observed in survey data may be driven by heterogeneity in economic literacy

the expected price of keeping up with the joneses abstract inflation expectations elicited in surveys have been found to exhibit large dispersion across individuals although several explanations have been proposed none fully explain this puzzle we explore in this paper a new behavioral factor social comparison using original survey data we find that respondents who feel they are falling behind compared to their peers report significantly and substantially higher inflation expectations we argue that this result is consistent with an experience based belief formation model in which those unable to keep up with the joneses overweight the high prices of aspiration goods they are unable to purchase

growth and risk how exposure to risk affects economic growth is a key issue in development this article quantifies both the ex ante and ex post effects of risk using long running panel data for rural households in zimbabwe it proposes a simulation based econometric methodology to estimate the structural form of a micro model of household investment decisions under risk the key finding is that risk substantially reduces growth in this particular setting the mean capital stock in the sample is in expectation 46 percent lower than in the absence of risk about two thirds of the impact of risk is due to the ex ante effect that is the behavioral response to risk which is usually not taken into account in policy design these results suggest that policy interventions that reduce exposure to shocks or that help households manage risk could be much more effective than is commonly thought

the economic functioning of online drugs markets abstract the economic functioning of online drug markets using data scraped from online platforms is studied analysis of over 1 5 million online drugs sales shows online drugs markets tend to function without the significant moral hazard problems that a priori one might think would plague them only a small proportion of online drugs deals receive bad ratings from buyers and online markets suffer less from problems of adulteration and low quality that are a common feature of street sales of illegal drugs furthermore as with legal online markets the market penalizes bad ratings which subsequently lead to significant sales reductions and to market exit the impact of the well known seizure by law enforcement of the original silk road and the shutdown of silk road 2 0 are also studied together with the exit scam of the market leader at the time evolution there is no evidence that these exits deterred buyers or sellers from online drugs trading as new platforms rapidly replaced those taken down with the online market for drugs continuing to grow

inflation expectations as a policy tool abstract we assess the prospects for central banks using inflation expectations as a policy tool for stabilization purposes we review recent work on how expectations of agents are formed and how they affect their economic decisions empirical evidence suggests that inflation expectations of households and firms affect their actions but the underlying mechanisms remain unclear especially for firms two additional limitations prevent policy makers from being able to actively manage inflation expectations first available surveys of firms expectations are systematically deficient which can only be addressed through the creation of large nationally representative surveys of firms second neither households nor firms expectations respond much to monetary policy announcements in low inflation environments we provide suggestions for how monetary policy makers could pierce this veil of inattention through new communication strategies as well as the potential pitfalls to trying to do so

measuring consumer uncertainty about future inflation we introduce a survey based measure of uncertainty about future inflation asking consumers for density forecasts across inflation outcomes consumers are willing and able to express uncertainty showing high response rates and response patterns that are reliably related to qualitative measures of uncertainty heterogeneity in expressed uncertainty is associated with demographic characteristics and financial literacy and measures of central tendency derived from density forecasts are strongly correlated with point forecasts furthermore expressed uncertainty is positively related to point forecast levels and to larger revisions in point forecasts over time copyright 2011 john wiley sons ltd

rational exuberance at the mall addiction to carrying a credit card balance the becker murphy model of rational addiction is tested with new zealand credit card debt data the results clearly favour the rational addiction model over the myopic backward looking model the estimated short run and long run price elasticities are 0 58 and 2 32 respectively and the estimated rate of time preference is 6 7 per quarter

what can survey forecasts tell us about information rigidities a lot we derive common and conflicting predictions from models in which agents face information constraints and then assess their validity using surveys of consumers firms central bankers and professional forecasters we document that mean forecasts fail to completely adjust on impact to shocks leading to statistically and economically significant deviations from the null of full information the dynamics of forecast errors after shocks are consistent with the predictions of models with information rigidities the conditional responses of forecast errors and disagreement among agents can also be used to differentiate between some of the most prominent models of information rigidities

inattentive professional forecasters abstract using the ecb survey of professional forecasters to characterize expectations at the micro level we emphasize two new facts forecasters i fail to systematically update their forecasts and ii disagree even when updating it is moreover found that forecasters have predictable forecast errors these facts are qualitatively supportive of recent models of inattention and suggest a setup where agents imperfectly process information due to both sticky information a la mankiw reis and noisy information a la sims however building and estimating such an expectation model we find that it cannot quantitatively replicate the error and disagreement observed in the data

the price is right updating inflation expectations in a randomized price information experiment abstract using a unique randomized information experiment embedded in a survey this paper investigates how consumers inflation expectations respond to new information we find that respondents on average update their expectations in response to certain types of information and do so sensibly in a manner consistent with bayesian updating as a result of information provision the distribution of inflation expectations converges toward its center and cross sectional disagreement declines we document heterogeneous information processing by gender and present suggestive evidence of respondents forecasting under asymmetric loss our results provide support for expectation formation models in which agents form expectations rationally but face information constraints

the demand for illicit drugs i introduction illicit drug use and alcohol abuse imposes significant costs on society and on the individual users these costs include increased crime health problems and employment problems because of these considerable costs government at all levels has made drug control and the control of alcohol abuse important priorities the federal government has undertaken an aggressive program of interdiction of drug shipments and eradication of drug crops in the field the federal government and the state governments have also increased their criminal justice efforts in analyzing the effect of government drug control programs economists have applied the conventional supply and demand model to illicit drug markets the model includes a demand function that is downward sloping with respect to price and a supply function that is upward sloping or horizontal with respect to price drug programs like interdiction and drug sanctions are assumed to reduce supply and raise equilibrium price other policy options such as some form of drug legalization could increase supply and reduce equilibrium price the effect of these policies on equilibrium quantity is dependent on the elasticity of demand and on whether demand shifts since not much is known about drug price elasticities the potential effects of various drug control policies remain a speculative exercise the purpose of this paper is to estimate the effects of alcohol and drug prices on alcohol use and drug participation both own price and cross price effects are estimated there are few prior empirical studies of the effect of drug prices because data have been difficult to acquire this paper makes use of newly available data on drug prices and is the first paper to link these data to a nationally representative drug use data set of 49 802 individuals estimates of drug price elasticities are important empirical evidence that drug sales can be characterized by market forces drug price elasticities are also important in estimating the likely impact of policies that affect drug prices and in estimating the effects of drug prohibition cross price elasticities are important to estimate since they suggest the likely effects of policies such as an increase in alcohol taxes on illicit drug participation and the effects of marijuana decriminalization on alcohol cocaine and heroin use ii prior studies while there are a number of prior studies of the effects of alcohol prices and policies there are few prior studies of drug prices and polices the reason for so few prior drug studies is the limited amount of data on drug prices and the limited options for linking these data to an individual record by residential area this study uses a new data set of cocaine and heroin prices from the drug enforcement agency that was linked to individual records by the office of applied studies at the substance abuse and mental health services administration leung and phelps 1993 provide a review of a number of recent alcohol demand studies the empirical literature provides considerable evidence that shows increasing the price of alcoholic beverages to decrease alcohol use alcohol demand studies generally estimate price elasticities for beer wine and spirits separately most studies employ aggregate data but a few use individual data studies using aggregate data find price elasticities for beer from about 2 to about 1 0 for wine from about 3 to about 1 8 and for spirits from about 3 to about 1 8 studies using individual data estimate price elasticities for beer from about 5 to about 3 0 for wine at about 5 and for spirits from about 5 to about 4 0 the few prior studies of the effect of decriminalization on marijuana use generally find that marijuana decriminalization has no effect on participation pacula 1994 thies and register 1993 dinardo and lemieux 1992 and johnston o malley and bachman 1981 all used samples of young people and found no effect of marijuana decriminalization

eliciting beliefs proper scoring rules incentives stakes and hedging accurate measurements of probabilistic beliefs have become increasingly important both in practice and in academia introduced by statisticians in the 1950s to promote truthful reports in simple environments proper scoring rules psr are now arguably the most popular incentivized mechanisms to elicit an agent s beliefs this paper generalizes the analysis of psr to richer environments relevant to economists more speci cally we combine theory and experiment to study how beliefs reported with a psr may be biased when i the psr payments are increased ii the agent has a nancial stake in the event she is predicting and iii the agent can hedge her prediction by taking an additional action our results reveal complex distortions of reported beliefs thereby raising concerns about the ability of psr to recover truthful beliefs in general economic environments

motives for private transfers over the life cycle an analytical framework and evidence for peru abstract this paper tests for the motives for private income transfers we consider two motives altruism and exchange the question of private transfer motives is important because such motivation can influence the effects of public income transfers on the distribution of income using a household survey for peru we find that transfer amounts received increase with recipient pre transfer income which contradicts a key prediction of the strong form of the altruism hypothesis but is consistent with exchange we also find that capital market imperfections are likely to be an important cause of private transfers and that social security benefits crowd out the incidence of private transfers

biases in macroeconomic forecasts irrationality or asymmetric loss empirical studies using survey data on expectations have frequently observed that forecasts are biased and have concluded that agents are not rational we establish that existing rationality tests are not robust to even small deviations from symmetric loss and hence have little ability to tell whether the forecaster is irrational or the loss function is asymmetric we quantify the exact trade off between forecast inefficiency and asymmetric loss leading to identical outcomes of standard rationality tests and explore new and more general methods for testing forecast rationality jointly with flexible families of loss functions that embed quadratic loss as a special case an empirical application to survey data on forecasts of nominal output growth demonstrates the empirical significance of our results and finds that rejections of rationality may largely have been driven by the assumption of symmetric loss

heterogeneous inflation expectations and learning using the panel component of the michigan survey of consumers we estimate a learning model of inflation expectations allowing for heterogeneous use of private information and lifetime inflation experience life experience inflation has a significant impact on individual expectations but only for 1 year ahead inflation public information is substantially more relevant for longer horizon expectations even controlling for life experience inflation and public information idiosyncratic information explains a nontrivial proportion of the inflation forecasts of agents women ethnic minorities and less educated agents have a higher degree of heterogeneity in their idiosyncratic information and give less importance to recent movements in inflation

are supply side drug control efforts effective evaluating otc regulations targeting methamphetamine precursors abstract enforcement efforts are the primary approach to reduce illegal drug use in the u s but evidence on their effectiveness is mixed we provide new evidence on the effectiveness of enforcement efforts by using rich administrative records and the staggered implementation of state laws targeting over the counter medicines that can be used to produce methamphetamine we estimate that the regulations reduced the number of methamphetamine laboratories operating in a state by 36 we find no evidence of changes in methamphetamine consumption or arrests for drug possession suggesting people were able to find methamphetamine produced elsewhere though we find evidence suggesting methamphetamine producers responded to regulation by obtaining precursors from neighboring states that lacked laws they do not appear to have systematically moved production to neighboring states this suggests that production shifted over national borders

employers discriminatory behavior and the estimation of wage discrimination this paper considers the linkage of empirical estimates of wage discrimination between two groups introduced by oaxaca 1973 to a theoretical model of employers discriminatory behavior it is shown that conditional on different assumptions about employers discriminatory tastes oaxaca s estimators of wage discrimination can be derived that the approach is more generally useful is demonstrated by deriving an alternative estimator of wage discrimination based on the assumption that within each type of labor e g unskilled skilled the utility function capturing employers discriminatory tastes is homogeneous of degree zero with respect to labor inputs from each of the two groups the estimators are compared empirically in an application to male female wage differentials

revisiting forever gained income dynamics in the resettlement areas of zimbabwe 1983 96 this study examines income dynamics for a panel of households resettled on former white owned farms in the aftermath of zimbabwe s independence there are four core findings i over a 13 year period 1983 96 there has been an impressive accumulation of assets and a dramatic increase of crop incomes ii the rise of crop incomes is partly due to asset accumulation but largely to increased asset returns hi differences between households in initial conditions such as previous farming experience have few persistent effects and iv income growth has been widely shared income inequality has fallen sharply and the largest percentage increases in incomes are recorded by households that initially had the lowest incomes

testing the rationality of price forecasts new evidence from panel data this paper tests the rationality of individual price forecasts in a panel of professional forecasters here unlike in most previous studies rationality is not rejected the results here differ because 1 using individual forecasts avoids aggregation bias 2 comparison of forecasts to initial data avoids bias due to data revision 3 the professional forecasters have economic incentives to state their expectations accurately and 4 a new covariance matrix estimator consistent when forecast errors are correlated across individuals is used copyright 1990 by american economic association

growth and risk methodology and micro evidence how exposure to risk affects economic growth is a key issue in development this article quantifies both the ex ante and ex post effects of risk using long running panel data for rural households in zimbabwe it proposes a simulation based econometric methodology to estimate the structural form of a micro model of household investment decisions under risk the key finding is that risk substantially reduces growth in this particular setting the mean capital stock in the sample is in expectation 46 percent lower than in the absence of risk about two thirds of the impact of risk is due to the ex ante effect that is the behavioral response to risk which is usually not taken into account in policy design these results suggest that policy interventions that reduce exposure to shocks or that help households manage risk could be much more effective than is commonly thought

the impact of agricultural extension on farm production in resettlement areas of zimbabwe in this paper we revisit the contested issue of the impact of agricultural extension on farm production we exploit two features of the data available to us its longitudinal nature and explicit measures of farmer ability we find that after controlling for innate productivity characteristics and farmer ability either using household fixed effects estimation or by including a measure of farmer ability and village fixed effects access to agricultural extension services defined as receiving one or two visits per agricultural year raises the value of crop production by about 15 per cent this parameter estimate is statistically significant however we also find variability in these parameter estimates across individual crop years with the impact being markedly different in drought and non drought years collectively these results suggest that although access to farm level extension visits does increase productivity even after controlling for innate productivity characteristics and farmer ability results from single year cross sectional studies should be treated with caution

illicit drug use and labour market achievement evidence from the uk this study using data from the british crime survey bcs examines the effect of drug use on occupational achievement it starts by attempting to overcome the identification problem that results from the limited set of drug use questions presented in the bcs taking this into account and allowing for the endogeneity of drug use in equations for unemployment and labour market outcomes that a mild positive association with soft drugs and occupational achievement is observed that diminishes with age this relationship holds for males but not for females in contrast it is also found that past use of hard drugs significantly increases the likelihood of current unemployment although it appears to be unrelated to occupational success conditional on achieving employment

policing cannabis and drug related hospital admissions evidence from administrative records abstract we evaluate the impact of a policing experiment that depenalized the possession of small quantities of cannabis in the london borough of lambeth on hospital admissions related to illicit drug use to do so we exploit administrative records on individual hospital admissions classified by icd 10 diagnosis codes these records allow the construction of a quarterly panel data set for london boroughs running from 1997 to 2009 to estimate the short and long run impacts of the depenalization policy unilaterally introduced in lambeth between 2001 and 2002 we find that the depenalization of cannabis had significant longer term impacts on hospital admissions related to the use of hard drugs raising hospital admission rates for men by between 40 and 100 of their pre policy baseline levels the impacts are concentrated among men in younger age cohorts the dynamic impacts across cohorts vary in profile with some cohorts experiencing hospitalization rates remaining above pre intervention levels three to four years after the depenalization policy is introduced we combine these estimated impacts on hospitalization rates with estimates on how the policy impacted the severity of hospital admissions to provide a lower bound estimate of the public health cost of the depenalization policy

comparing the point predictions and subjective probability distributions of professional forecasters we use data from the survey of professional forecasters spf to compare point predictions of gross domestic product gdp growth and inflation with the subjective probability distributions held by forecasters we find that most spf point predictions are quite close to the central tendencies of forecasters subjective distributions tend to be asymmetric with spf forecasters tending to report point predictions that give a more favorable view of the economy than do their subjective means medians modes

macroeconomic expectations of households and professional forecasters economists have long emphasized the importance of expectations in determining macroeconomic outcomes yet there has been almost no recent effort to model actual empirical expectations data instead m acroeconomists usually simply assume that expectations are rational this paper shows that while empirical household expectations are not rational in the usual sense expectational dynamics are well captured by a model in which households views derive from news reports of the views of professional forecasters which in turn may be rational the model s estimates imply that people only occasionally pay attention to news reports this inattention generates stickyness in aggregate expectations with important macroeconomic consequences

substance abuse treatment and mortality abstract drug overdose deaths which have more than doubled over the past decade represent a growing public health concern though substance abuse treatment may be effective in reducing drug abuse evidence for a causal effect of treatment on drug related mortality is lacking i analyze the effect of substance abuse treatment on mortality by exploiting county level variation in treatment facilities driven by facility openings and closings the estimates indicate that a 10 increase in facilities lowers a county s drug induced mortality rate by 2 the estimated effects persist across individual and county characteristics and further indicate that spillovers of treatment reduce other related causes of death

does increasing the beer tax reduce marijuana consumption previous studies suggest that alcohol and marijuana are economic substitutes so recent policies restricting the availability of alcohol have led to an increase in the amount of marijuana consumed using micro level data from the national longitudinal survey of youth nlsy to estimate individual demand equations for alcohol and marijuana this research finds that alcohol and marijuana are economic complements not substitutes further this research finds that increases in the federal tax on beer will generate a larger reduction in the unconditional demand for marijuana than for alcohol in percentage terms

dynamic corrective taxes with time varying salience abstract economies across the globe are becoming increasingly cashless and many payment systems have become automated driving a temporal wedge between consumption and payment and generally making the costs of consumption intermittently salient since this inconsistent price salience alters demand elasticities it is a particular concern for goods that generate externalities and the price based policies deployed to address them this paper derives optimal dynamic corrective taxes for suboptimal and persistent consumption decisions these taxes depend on the agent s ability to commit to a future consumption path we also characterize a second best constant tax and the excess burden from time invariant tax rates when calibrated to u s residential electricity consumption the model shows that the second best constant tax is more than twice the marginal external cost of carbon emissions

panic on the streets of london police crime and the july 2005 terror attacks in this paper we study the causal impact of police on crime by looking at what happened to crime before and after the terror attacks that hit central london in july 2005 the attacks resulted in a large redeployment of police officers to central london boroughs as compared to outer london in fact police deployment in central london increased by over 30 percent in the six weeks following the july 7 bombings during this time crime fell significantly in central relative to outer london study of the timing of the crime reductions and their magnitude the types of crime which were more likely to be affected and a series of robustness tests looking at possible biases all make us confident that our research approach identifies a causal impact of police on crime implementing an instrumental variable approach shows an elasticity of crime with respect to police of approximately 0 3 so that a 10 percent increase in police activity reduces crime by around 3 percent

ex ante actions and ex post public responses to drought shocks evidence and simulations from zimbabwe abstract the study examines the consequences of alternative public responses to drought shocks it does so by drawing on household data from resettlement areas of rural zimbabwe from 1992 93 to 1995 96 and the estimation of four behavioral relations the determinants of crop income the determinants of investment in livestock the determinants of investment in agricultural capital stock and the determinants of private transfers this information is used to construct a series of simulations in which drought relief received in the aftermath of the 1994 95 the ex post response is made available to households in the form of agricultural capital stock and extension advice an ex ante action doing so is found to raise household welfare in nondrought years but provides only limited protection in the aftermath of drought

rational habit formation abstract this paper discusses consumer demand under rational habit formation if consumer tastes change endogenously through habit stocks depending on past consumption the rational consumer will make allowance of the future habit forming effects of current consumption a model with rational habit formation is made formally equivalent to an intertemporal consumer model without habit formation by redefining the cost of consumption and wealth the cost of consumption is obtained by adding the cost of future induced consumption to the rental price of the commodity the extended wealth concept is obtained by subtracting the cost of the initial stocks of habits and the cost of future physically necessary consumption from wealth the paper also investigates the implication of rational habit formation for constructing one period cost of living indices

external support during the transition phase roles for humanitarian aid and development assistance from a village perspective summary development orthodoxy based on macroeconomic theory stresses the importance of physical and human capital accumulation as necessary elements for economic growth growing concern among development practitioners that textbook economic theory and results from formal questionnaires may not converge with the perceptions of the recipients of aid however has lead to an increase in the use of participatory appraisals and related approaches to explore resettled villagers perceptions of aid and its role in reducing poverty the research followed two techniques described in the literature on participatory rural appraisal a a wealth ranking exercise to examine villagers concepts of poverty and the determinants of growth and b semi structured group discussions to explore villagers thoughts on the role of aid what is reassuring from this exercise is the convergence between villagers perceptions of poverty and the role of aid with the implications of the economics literature and the results from administration of a formal household questionnaire

the duration of the smoking habit i introduction most smokers smoke out of habit once the habit is ended many of smoking s most harmful effects decline rather quickly preventing and ending cigarette addiction is therefore the straightest path toward preventing the health damage done by cigarette smoking consequently the related questions of why people start smoking and why they quit are central to formulating and evaluating effective antismoking policies duration or hazard models are designed to measure the probability of transition between states and are thus ideal for investigating the structural determinants of the transition between addiction and non addiction nevertheless most previous work in the economics literature uses the aggregate smoking participation rate defined as the percentage of people who currently smoke or an individual s probability of participation rather than a hazard rate to measure the attractiveness of habitual smoking this paper models the hazard rates of both starting and quitting the cigarette smoking habit the starting hazard rate is the probability that an individual will start smoking in a given time period conditional on being a nonsmoker until then the quitting hazard rate is the probability of quitting smoking in a given time period conditional on being a smoker since the starting date both of these rates should rise and fall in response to changes in the attractiveness of smoking the two rates will respond differently to different stimuli since the starting hazard reflects the point of view of nonsmokers and the quitting hazard reflects the point of view of smokers hazard or duration models possess several advantages over smoking participation models most obviously smoking participation rates cannot directly distinguish between increased starting rates and decreased quitting rates but the hazard models can also in a participation rate model it is difficult to control for the effect of the duration of the habit whereas duration models are designed specifically to allow for and measure the dependence of the hazard rate on duration another advantage is that the participation rate at any one time will oversample the number of long term smokers relative to those who had a short term habit whereas a duration model is designed to avoid this source of bias one drawback however is that because of their inherent panel nature the data requirements of duration models are somewhat more difficult to satisfy as shall be seen the only previous work in the economics literature that estimates the hazard rate of starting smoking is douglas and hariharan 1994 my paper improves upon douglas and hariharan in at least three important ways first it estimates the hazard rate of quitting smoking as well as that of starting second it takes into account variation in state level regulation third its time varying covariate model allows hazard rates to respond dynamically to changes in cigarette price regulation and information variables the use of time varying covariates is important because it brings the empirical model into much closer accord with theory the decision whether or not to start or quit smoking is an ongoing decision made one day at a time on the basis of current information the hazard of starting is greatest when the cost of the habit appears lowest and its benefit appears highest this comparison of cost and benefit changes through time as price information income and life cycle variables change while douglas and hariharan 1994 used price information from the potential smoker s most vulnerable age on the theory that its marginal effect is greatest at that time the model used in this paper allows each individual s hazard rate to respond to changes in price and public information as they occur the leading theoretical model of the decision to smoke is the rational addiction model of becker and murphy 1988 which assumes that consumers of addictive goods begin smoking only after fully weighing the costs and benefits of the habit

alcoholism work and income this article reports on an empirical analysis of the relationships between alcoholism and income and working we show that the relationships between alcoholism and labor market success have important age or life cycle dimensions we present evidence that alcoholism may affect income more by restricting labor market participation than by affecting the wages of workers finally we demonstrate that the effects of alcoholism on earnings depend on the extent to which one controls for other covariates associated with alcoholism as such we suggest that there may be important indirect as well as direct effects of alcoholism on labor market success

the demand for cocaine by young adults a rational addiction approach abstract this paper applies the rational addiction model to the demand for cocaine by young adults in the monitoring the future panel the price of cocaine is added to this survey from the drug enforcement administration s system to retrieve information from drug evidence results suggest that annual participation and frequency of use given participation are negatively related to the price of cocaine in addition current participation frequency is positively related to past and future participation frequency the long run price elasticity of total consumption participation multiplied by frequency given participation of 1 35 is substantial

tax incidence with strategic firms in the soft drink market abstract because soft drink sd consumption is considered to be a contributor to the epidemic of obesity there is a growing interest in evaluating the impact on sd consumption of alternative tax policies in this paper we propose a methodology to evaluate the impact of taxation of a food market taking into account the strategic price response of both manufacturers and retailers we apply this methodology to the french sd market and simulate the impacts of ad valorem and excise taxes we find that firms behave differently when facing an ad valorem tax or an excise tax an excise tax is overshifted to consumer prices while an ad valorem tax is undershifted to consumer prices we find that an excise tax based on the sugar content of sd is the most effective at reducing sd consumption our results also indicate that ignoring strategic pricing by firms leads to misestimations of the impact of taxation by between 15 and 40 depending on the products and the tax implemented in the short term that is ignoring positive long term health effects a 9 cents l excise tax has a small negative welfare effect about 1 person year

household informedness and long run inflation expectations experimental evidence this article uses an experiment embedded in a survey to analyze the response of consumers long run inflation expectations to information about the federal reserve s inflation target and past inflation on average respondents revise forecasts toward the 2 target with either information treatment forecast uncertainty and heterogeneity decline with the treatments but remain substantial since the information in the treatments is publicly available these findings are consistent with models of imperfect information in which agents do not fully and continually update their information sets or incorporate all available information into their expectations response to treatments varies with prior informedness and with demographic characteristics

employment wages and alcohol consumption in russia 1 introductionconcerns regarding the relationship between alcohol consumption and labor market productivity are well grounded if problem drinking or alcoholism is considered a disease then it may have depressant effects on labor market productivity causing reductions in employment earnings and other labor market outcomes mullahy and sindelar 1993 1996 kenkel and ribar 1994 however there is a medical literature that documents a u shaped relationship between alcohol consumption and the risk of cardiovascular disease according to this literature moderate drinkers have a lower risk of cardiovascular disease than do either abstainers or heavy drinkers beaglehole and jackson 1992 doll et al 1994 consistent with this evidence several economists have found a positive association between moderate drinking and earnings berger and leigh 1988 french and zarkin 1995 heien 1996 hamilton and hamilton 1997 zarkin et al 1998 macdonald and shields 2001 this article investigates the impact of alcohol consumption on employment and wages in russia the primary contributions of the article are twofold first it enhances the economic literature on the relationship between alcohol consumption and labor market behavior by using data from a longitudinal survey the use of a longitudinal data set enables the estimation of a fixed effects model which helps avoid the potential bias caused by unobserved individual factors not captured in cross sectional models the use of a fixed effects model is an important extension to the literature because the data sets used in previous studies are cross sectional and usually lack adequate variables that could serve as identifying instruments to control for the endogeneity of alcohol consumption 1 furthermore the richness of the data set used in this article allows for the application of three alternative measures of alcohol consumption in the empirical analysis this is important because the relationship between alcohol consumption and labor market outcomes may be sensitive to the alcohol measure that is used the second notable contribution of this article is that it provides the first empirical evidence on the association between alcohol consumption and labor market outcomes in russia excessive alcohol consumption is a widespread problem in russia where per capita alcohol consumption is around 14 liters per year the world health organization who considers 8 liters to be a sign that a country has a critical consumption level for health problems quinn judge 1997 furthermore the dramatic fluctuations in mortality rates experienced in russia over the past 15 years have generated considerable attention to the potential effect of alcohol consumption on the overall health of the russian population it is important to investigate how labor market outcomes would be affected by alcohol consumption in a country which demonstrates such dramatic fluctuations in alcohol consumption and mortality consistent with the previous studies cross sectional results generally support the hypothesis of an inverse u shaped relationship between alcohol consumption and wages and employment results from the fixed effect models are found to be quite different from those of cross sectional models the positive effect of alcohol consumption on employment disappears for both males and females once the individual fixed effects are controlled for the results of the wage model lend support to a small and linear return to alcohol consumption but the effects are significant only at the 10 level the fixed effects estimates are smaller in magnitude and estimated with less precision compared with cross sectional estimates section 2 reviews the previous literature section 3 discusses the conceptual issues and empirical strategy section 4 introduces the data set section 5 provides a discussion of the results and sensitivity analyses section 6 concludes the article

pathways out of rural poverty a case study in socio economic mobility in the rural philippines exploiting unique household panel data covering a 30 year period this paper attempts to analyse the patterns of poverty exits by examining socio economic mobility in a philippines village macroeconomic growth was a major factor explaining poverty exit probabilities until the early 1980s after the 1980s poverty exit paths through agricultural ladder narrowed schooling and growth became equally important factors owing to the increased returns to schooling and labour endowments also became important for the lower but not upper social strata providing an economic incentive to have more children for the poor surprisingly we find no evidence of state dependence in poverty spells once observable factors are taken into account copyright 2007 oxford university press

optimal sticky prices under rational inattention this paper presents a model in which price setting firms decide what to pay attention to subject to a constraint on information flow when idiosyncratic conditions are more variable or more important than aggregate conditions firms pay more attention to idiosyncratic conditions than to aggregate conditions when we calibrate the model to match the large average absolute size of price changes observed in micro data prices react fast and by large amounts to idiosyncratic shocks but only slowly and by small amounts to nominal shocks nominal shocks have strong and persistent real effects we use the model to investigate how the optimal allocation of attention and the dynamics of prices depend on the firms environment jel e 3 e5 d8

on the existence of balanced growth equilibrium the authors characterize the class of dynamic models that allow for the most commonly used types of sustained economic growth balanced and asymptotically balanced they show that under a constant returns to scale technology asymptotically constant discount rate and asymptotically constant elasticity of marginal felicity are not only necessary but also sufficient conditions for the existence of a n asymptotically balanced growth equilibrium path the authors provide examples of recursive utility models that accept a n asymptotically balanced growth equilibrium and discuss their implications on cross country differences in growth rates as well as on savings behavior and wealth distribution copyright 1997 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

implications of rational inattention abstract a constraint that actions can depend on observations only through a communication channel with finite shannon capacity is shown to be able to play a role very similar to that of a signal extraction problem or an adjustment cost in standard control problems the resulting theory looks enough like familiar dynamic rational expectations theories to suggest that it might be useful and practical while the implications for policy are different enough to be interesting

producer decision making under uncertainty role of past experiences and question framing limited research examines the role of reference points or how uncertain outcomes are processed in producer decisions this study employs a survey containing a split sample choice experiment varying how uncertain outcomes are portrayed and assesses multiple candidate reference points results suggest that u s cattle producers use the best outcome experienced as reference points in their decisions and the method by which uncertain outcomes are presented impacts loss aversion marginal willingness to pay and market participation estimates this illustrates how research employing split samples multiple reference points and alternative methods of portraying uncertain outcomes may better identify producer decision making

frequency bias in consumers perceptions of inflation an experimental study we investigate whether the perception of economy wide inflation is affected by the frequency with which various goods prices are observed we provide novel experimental evidence that consumers perceptions of aggregate inflation are systematically biased toward the perceived inflation rates of the frequently purchased items this frequency bias may affect consumers consumption and investment decisions and thus have important macroeconomic consequences it may also explain why consumers typically over estimate inflation in surveys during periods where frequently purchased non durable goods are inflating faster than durables