the dynamics of real estate prices institute of university of i business and v california at i economic research berkeley fisher center for real estate and urban economics p working paper series working paper no 88 151 the dynamics of real estate prices by these papers are preliminary in nature their purpose is to i e z i d 2f iz e ey bradford case are nottobccited ortluotedin john mq quigley any publication without the ex press permission of the author walter a haas school of business

the equilibrium effect of fundamentals on house prices and rents abstract using a dynamic equilibrium model of housing tenure choice with fully specified markets for homeownership and rental properties and endogenous house prices and rents this paper studies the effect of fundamentals on equilibrium house prices and rents lower interest rates relaxed lending standards and higher incomes are shown to account for approximately one half of the increase in the u s house price rent ratio between 1995 and 2006 and to generate the pattern of rapidly growing house prices sluggish rents increasing homeownership and rising household indebtedness observed in the data

redevelopment and the urban land price gradient abstract this paper presents the first careful test of an equilibrium model of urban redevelopment in addition it demonstrates a new methodology for recovering vacant urban land prices in areas that have already been developed using data on single family detached homes sold in vancouver b c we estimate the price of vacant land based on properties that were sold and redeveloped the price of developed land is also estimated based on properties that were sold and not redeveloped various tests overwhelmingly support the hypothesis that housing is redeveloped when the price of vacant land exceeds the price of land in its current use this result provides support for various theoretical models of urban spatial growth and indicates that one can recover vacant urban land prices by examining redeveloped properties

safe and satisfied external effects of homeownership in rotterdam the article analyses the impact of homeownership on neighbourhood safety and neighbourhood satisfaction using a unique panel dataset for the city of rotterdam the results show that there are significant but economically small effects of homeownership on safety and satisfaction moreover the relation between ownership and satisfaction is significantly moderated by neighbourhood safety the paper examines whether the marginal impact of increases in homeownership on external effects diminish once ownership levels are higher according to the data this seems to be the case the results are robust to alternative specifications the findings provide insights for the evaluation of housing market policies that subsidise or stimulate homeownership

heterogeneous expectations boom bust housing cycles and supply conditions a nonlinear economic dynamics approach abstract we combine a standard stock flow housing market model incorporating explicit relationships between house prices the housing stock and the rent level with a parsimonious expectation formation scheme of housing market investors reflecting an evolving mix of extrapolative and regressive expectation rules the model results in a two dimensional discrete time nonlinear dynamical system based on realistic parameters the model is able to generate endogenous boom bust housing market dynamics with lasting periods of overvaluation and overbuilding we thus exploit our model to investigate how real forces in particular supply conditions interact with expectations driven housing market fluctuations

collective moral hazard maturity mismatch and systemic bailouts the paper elicits a mechanism by which private leverage choices exhibit strategic complementarities through the reaction of monetary policy when everyone engages in maturity transformation authorities haver little choice but facilitating refinancing in turn refusing to adopt a risky balance sheet lowers the return on equity the key ingredient is that monetary policy is non targeted the ex post benefits from a monetary bailout accrue in proportion to the number amount of leverage while the distortion costs are to a large extent fixed this insight has important consequences first banks choose to correlate their risk exposures second private borrowers may deliberately choose to increase their interest rate sensitivity following bad news about future needs for liquidity third optimal monetary policy is time inconsistent fourth macro prudential supervision is called for we characterize the optimal regulation which takes the form of a minimum liquidity requirement coupled with monitoring of the quality of liquid assets we establish the robustness of our insights when the set of

urban decline and durable housing urban decline is not the mirror image of growth and durable housing is the primary reason the nature of decline is so different this paper presents a model of urban decline with durable housing and verifies these implications of the model 1 city growth rates are skewed so that cities grow more quickly than they decline 2 urban decline is highly persistent 3 positive shocks increase population more than they increase housing prices 4 negative shocks decrease housing prices more than they decrease population 5 if housing prices are below construction costs then the city declines and 6 the combination of cheap housing and weak labor demand attracts individuals with low levels of human capital to declining cities

quasi experimental evidence on the effect of aircraft noise on apartment rents inferring the implicit price of an environmental good hinges on ceteris paribus conditions that are often hard to justify this paper uses an unexpected change in flight regulations as source of exogenous variation and identifies aircraft noise effects from price adjustments in the market for rental apartments controlling for spatial and apartment heterogeneity we find that aircraft noise reduces apartment rents by about 0 5 per decibel our results indicate i that noise discounts are overestimated in cross sectional studies because aircraft noise tends to be negatively correlated with omitted neighborhood and housing amenities and ii that noise effects are unlikely to be constant over the entire noise range

are private markets and filtering a viable source of low income housing estimates from a repeat income model while filtering has long been considered the primary mechanism by which markets supply low income housing direct estimates of that process have been absent this has contributed to doubts about the viability of markets and to misplaced policy i fill this gap by estimating a repeat income model using 1985 2011 panel data real annual filtering rates are faster for rental housing 2 5 percent than owner occupied 0 5 percent vary inversely with the income elasticity of demand and house price inflation and are sensitive to tenure transitions as homes age for most locations filtering is robust which lends support for housing voucher programs jel r21 r31 r38

testing the efficiency of the norwegian housing market abstract the question of whether or not the housing market is efficient is posed by an increasing number of economists policymakers homebuyers and homesellers this article tests the efficiency hypothesis on data from the housing market in oslo over the period 1991 2002 employing the case shiller time structure test on a repeat sales house price index and returns to housing we demonstrate that both the repeat sales house price index and returns contain time structure and that the housing market is characterized by inefficiencies we also find surprisingly that the housing market consistently yields higher appreciation at lower volatility than the stock market over the period

a nation of gamblers real estate speculation and american history the great housing convulsion that buffeted america between 2000 and 2010 has historical precedents from the frontier land boom of the 1790s to the skyscraper craze of the 1920s but this time was different there was far less far less real uncertainty about fundamental economic and geographic trends making the convulsion even more puzzling during historic and recent booms sensible models could justify high prices on the basis of seemingly reasonable projections about stable or growing prices the recurring error appears to be a failure to anticipate the impact that elastic supply will eventually have on prices whether for cotton in alabama in 1820 or land in las vegas in 2006 buyers don t appear to be irrational but rather cognitively limited investors who work with simple heuristic models instead of a comprehensive general equilibrium framework low interest rates rarely seem to drive price growth under priced default options are a more common contributor to high prices the primary cost of booms has not typically been overbuilding but rather the financial chaos that accompanies housing downturns

the contagion effect of foreclosed properties although previous research shows that prices of homes in neighborhoods with foreclosures are lower than those in neighborhoods without foreclosures it remains unclear whether the lower prices are the result of a general decline in neighborhood values or whether foreclosures reduce the prices of nearby non distressed sales through a contagion effect we provide robust evidence of a contagion discount by simultaneously estimating the local price trend and the incremental price impact of nearby foreclosures at its peak the discount is roughly 1 per nearby foreclosed property the discount diminishes rapidly as the distance to the distressed property increases the contagion discount grows from the onset of distress through the foreclosure sale and then stabilizes this pattern is consistent with the contagion effect being the visual externality associated with deferred maintenance and neglect

depreciation of housing capital maintenance and house price inflation estimates from a repeat sales model abstract the rate at which physical capital depreciates is fundamental to investment in the economy nevertheless although housing capital accounts for one third of the total capital stock the rate at which housing capital depreciates has only rarely been directly estimated in part because prior studies do not control for maintenance for that same reason widely publicized measures of house price appreciation overstate the capital gain from homeownership using data from the american housing survey we examine these issues over the 1983 to 2001 period results indicate that gross of maintenance housing depreciates at roughly 2 5 percent per year while net of maintenance housing depreciates at approximately 2 percent per year moreover although the typical home appreciated at an annual real rate of roughly 0 75 percent after allowing for depreciation and maintenance the average homeowner experienced little capital gain

external cost of coal based electricity generation a tale of ahmedabad city abstract electricity production causes unintended impacts their exclusion by the market leads to suboptimal resource allocations monetizing and internalizing of external costs though challenging and debatable leads to a better allocation of economic resources and welfare in this paper a life cycle analysis lca on the production of electricity from conventional coal based electricity generation system has been performed in order to examine the environmental impacts of coal based electricity generating systems in the twin city of ahmedabad and gandhinagar in western india by using dose response functions we make an attempt to estimate the damages to human health crops and building materials resulting from the operation of coal power plants and its associated mines further we use geographic information system to account for spatially dependent data finally monetary values have been assigned to estimate the damage to human health crops and building materials this study reveals that the health as well as on non health impacts of air pollution resulting from coal based electricity generation may not be ignored both in absolute as well as economic value terms

valuations of life and injury risks a research on valuing risks to life and health in thecontext of a developing country is practicallynon existent this study provides the first estimatedvalues of life and health using data from india these values can aid policy makers internationalagencies and researchers in evaluating health projectsin developing nations they can also be used to carryout comparisons with values obtained for developedcountries

old homes externalities and poor neighborhoods a model of urban decline and renewal abstract this paper investigates urban decline and renewal in the united states using three panels that follow neighborhoods on a geographically consistent basis over extended periods of time findings indicate that change in neighborhood economic status is common averaging roughly 13 percent per decade roughly two thirds of neighborhoods studied in 1950 were of quite different economic status fifty years later panel unit root tests for 35 msas indicate that neighborhood economic status is a stationary process consistent with long running cycles of decline and renewal in philadelphia county a complete cycle appears to last up to 100 years aging housing stocks and redevelopment contribute to these patterns as do local externalities associated with social interactions lower income neighborhoods appear to be especially sensitive to the presence of individuals that provide social capital many of the factors that drive change at the local level have large and policy relevant effects

distributional implications of government guarantees in mortgage markets we analyze the removal of the credit risk guarantees provided by the government sponsored enterprises gses in a model with agents heterogeneous in income and house price risk we find that wealth inequality increases driven by higher mortgage spreads and housing rents housing holdings become more concentrated foreclosures fall the removal benefits high income households while hurting low and mid income households renters and highly leveraged mortgagors with conforming loans gse reform requires compensating transfers sufficiently high elasticity of rental supply or linking gse reform with the elimination of the mortgage interest deduction

monetary policy product market competition and growth in this paper we argue that monetary easing fosters growth more in more credit constrained environments and the more so the higher the degree of product market competition indeed when competition is low large rents allow firms to stay on the market and reinvest optimally no matter how funding conditions change with aggregate conditions to test this prediction we use industrylevel and firm level data from the euro area to look at the effects on sectoral growth and firm level growth of the unexpected drop in long term government bond yields following the announcement of the outright monetary transactions program omt by the ecb we find that the monetary policy easing induced by omt contributed to raising sectoral firm level growth more in more highly leveraged sectors firms and the more so the higher the degree of product market competition in the country sector

imputed rental income taxation and income distribution in finland in most western countries owner occupied housing is tax favoured compared with other investments and housing tenure modes this paper analyses the effects of imputed rental income and its tax treatment on income distribution in finland using household data from the 2004 wealth survey produced by statistics finland it is found that imputed rental income has a major effect on homeowners well being as it constitutes on average almost 10 per cent of homeowner households disposable income furthermore including imputed rental income in household disposable income decreased overall inequality measured by the gini index the tax subsidy resulting from non taxation of imputed rental income is skewed towards high income households however the effects of a new tax on imputed rental income on overall inequality would depend vitally on the way the increased government tax revenue is transferred back to the households

hedonic imputation and the price index problem an application to housing in this study we show how use of the hedonic imputation method complicates the price index problem in addition to the usual choice between formulas such as fisher and tornqvist the fact that index compilers have some discretion over which prices are imputed implies that it is necessary to choose as well between different varieties of each formula the functional form of the hedonic model must also be taken into account we illustrate the importance of these issues in a housing context using house price data for three regions in sydney over a 3 yr period jel c43 e31 o47 r31

speculative bubble spillovers across regional housing markets in this paper we determine whether speculative bubbles in one region in the united states can lead bubbles to form in others we first apply a regime switching model to determine whether speculative bubbles existed in the u s regional residential real estate markets our findings suggest that the housing markets in five of the nine census divisions investigated were characterized by speculative bubbles we then examine the extent to which bubbles spill over between neighboring and more distant regions finding that the transmission of speculative bubbles and nonfundamentals between regions is multidirectional and does not depend on contiguity or distance

economic evaluation of environmental externalities in china s coal fired power generation abstract serious environmental externalities exist in china s power industry environmental economics theory suggests that the evaluation of environmental externality is the basis of designing an efficient regulation the purposes of this study are 1 to identify chinese respondents preferences for green development of electric power industry and the socio economic characteristics behind them 2 to investigate the different attitudes of the respondents towards pollution and co2 reduction 3 to quantitatively evaluate the environmental cost of china s coal fired power generation based on the method of choice experiments ce and the 411 questionnaires with 2466 data points we found that chinese respondents prefer pm2 5 so2 and nox reduction to co2 reduction and that the environment cost of coal fired power plants in china is 0 30 yuan per kwh in addition we found that the socio economic characteristics of income education gender and environmental awareness have significant impacts on respondents choices these findings indicate that the environmental cost of coal fired power generation is a significant factor that requires great consideration in the formulation of electric power development policies in addition importance should also be attached to the implementation of green power price policy and enhancement of environmental protection awareness

the price of residential land for counties zip codes and census tracts in the united states abstract data from millions of appraisals in 2012 2019 are used to estimate residential land prices the share of house value attributable to land and related statistics down to the census tract level for areas that include the vast majority of u s population and single family housing the results confirm predictions about land prices from canonical urban models over 2012 2019 we show that land prices rose faster than house prices in large metro areas boosting the land share of house value while the land share fell in smaller metros the data are available for download at https www fhfa gov papers wp1901 aspx

swings in commercial and residential land prices in the united states abstract we use a large dataset of land sales dating back to the mid 1990s to construct land price indexes for 23 msas in the united states and for the aggregate of those msas the price indexes show a dramatic increase in both commercial and residential land prices over several years prior to their peak in 2006 2007 and a steep descent since then these fluctuations have exceeded those in well known indexes of home prices and commercial real estate prices because those indexes price a bundle of land and structures this comparison implies that land prices have been more volatile than structures prices over this period this result is a key element of the land leverage hypothesis which holds that home prices and commercial property prices will be more volatile all else equal in areas where land represents a larger share of real estate value

volatility and growth credit constraints and the composition of investment abstract how does uncertainty and credit constraints affect the cyclical composition of investment and thereby volatility and growth this paper addresses this question within a model where firms engage in two types of investment a short term one and a long term one which contributes more to productivity growth because it takes longer to complete long term investment has a relatively less cyclical return but it also has a higher liquidity risk the first effect ensures that the share of long term investment to total investment is countercyclical when financial markets are perfect the second implies that this share may turn procyclical when firms face tight credit constraints a novel propagation mechanism thus emerges through its effect on the cyclical composition of investment tighter credit can lead to both higher volatility and lower mean growth evidence from a panel of countries provides support for the model s key predictions

leverage and the foreclosure crisis how much of the foreclosure crisis can be explained by the large number of high leverage mortgages originated during the housing boom in our model heterogeneous households select from mortgages with different down payments and choose whether to default given income and housing shocks the use of low down payment loans is initially limited by payment to income requirements but becomes unrestricted during the boom the model approximates key housing and mortgage market facts before and after the crisis a counterfactual experiment suggests that the increased number of high leverage loans originated prior to the crisis can explain over 60 percent of the rise in foreclosure rates

understanding the solar home price premium electricity generation and green social status this study uses a large sample of homes in the san diego area and sacramento california area to provide some of the first capitalization estimates of the sales value of homes with solar panels relative to comparable homes without solar panels although the residential solar home market continues to grow there is little direct evidence on the market capitalization effect using both hedonics and a repeat sales index approach we find that solar panels are capitalized at roughly a 3 5 premium this premium is larger in communities with a greater share of college graduates and of registered prius hybrid vehicles

institutional causes macroeconomic symptoms volatility crises and growth countries that have pursued distortionary macroeconomic policies including high inflation large budget deficits and misaligned exchange rates appear to have suffered more macroeconomic volatility and also grown more slowly during the postwar period does this reflect the causal effect of these macroeconomic policies on economic outcomes one reason to suspect that the answer may be no is that countries pursuing poor macroeconomic policies also have weak institutions including political institutions that do not constrain politicians and political elites ineffective enforcement of property rights for investors widespread corruption and a high degree of political instability this paper documents that countries that inherited more extractive institutions from their colonial past were more likely to experience high volatility and economic crises during the postwar period more specifically societies where european colonists faced high mortality rates more than 100 years ago are much more volatile and prone to crises based on our previous work we interpret this relationship as due to the causal effect of institutions on economic outcomes europeans did not settle and were more likely to set up extractive institutions in areas where they faced high mortality once we control for the effect of institutions macroeconomic policies appear to have only a minor impact on volatility and crises this suggests that distortionary macroeconomic policies are more likely to be symptoms of underlying institutional problems rather than the main causes of economic

option value and the price of teardown properties abstract the introduction of uncertainty over the future price of structural capital into a model of teardowns implies a value to delaying the demolition vs preservation decision and that the market price of a redeveloped property may increase with its quantity of structural capital using data from an active teardown market we test the model s prediction that hedonic price function coefficients depend on the expected time between sale and demolition as predicted structural variables have significant effects on the sales prices of both teardown and non teardown properties and the effects are generally much larger the lower the estimated teardown probability

external costs of energy do the answers match the questions looking back at 10 years of externe abstract while the claim for getting prices right is quite popular in conceptual policy papers the implementation of appropriate internalisation strategies is still hampered by a lack of reliable external cost data great expectations were set into the externe project a major research programme launched by the european commission at the beginning of the 1990s to provide a scientific basis for the quantification of energy related externalities and to give guidance supporting the design of internalisation measures after more than a decade of research the externe label became a well recognised standard source for external cost data looking back into the externe history the paper pursues how emerging new scientific insights and changing background assumptions affected external cost estimates and related recommendations to policy over time based on externe results the usefulness and inherent limitations of external cost estimates for impact categories like climate change or nuclear waste disposal is discussed the paper also gives examples on how external costs in spite of remaining uncertainties are successfully used to support environmental policy

the employment effects of credit market disruptions firm level evidence from the 2008 9 financial crisis this article investigates the effect of bank lending frictions on employment outcomes i construct a new data set that combines information on banking relationships and employment at 2 000 nonfinancial firms during the 2008 9 crisis the article first verifies empirically the importance of banking relationships which imply a cost to borrowers who switch lenders i then use the dispersion in lender health following the lehman crisis as a source of exogenous variation in the availability of credit to borrowers i find that credit matters firms that had precrisis relationships with less healthy lenders had a lower likelihood of obtaining a loan following the lehman bankruptcy paid a higher interest rate if they did borrow and reduced employment by more compared to precrisis clients of healthier lenders consistent with frictions deriving from asymmetric information the effects vary by firm type lender health has an economically and statistically significant effect on employment at small and medium firms but the data cannot reject the hypothesis of no effect at the largest or most transparent firms abstracting from general equilibrium effects i find that the withdrawal of credit accounts for between one third and one half of the employment decline at small and medium firms in the sample in the year

a residence time model of housing markets abstract this paper estimates a semi markov model of housing markets in which families move from one home to another spend a random amount of time in each home and choose whether to own or to rent at each move limiting conditions of the semi markov process are used to characterize the steady state frequency of owner occupied housing and to simulate the impact of changes in housing tax policy this approach differs markedly from previous studies of housing tax policy which focus on the entire population as opposed to the movers and ignore the effect of household residence times see king 1980 rosen 1979 white and white 1977 or laidler 1969 residence times further influence the analysis by affecting the relative cost of owning to renting in the tenure choice model homeowners pay legal and realtor fees at the time they move out of their homes which renters do not have to pay the discounted value of these fees declines with length of stay and provides a structural explanation of why families with longer residence times have a greater propensity to own results from the empirical analysis suggest that the semi markov model closely predicts conditions in the united states and provide important insights into the effects of housing tax policy residence times are also found to influence household tenure choice through their impact on the discounted legal and realtor fees paid by homeowners

housing price bubbles new supply and within city dynamics abstract although there is broad recognition that cities differ in their tendency to experience house price bubbles most studies assume away any possibility of within city heterogeneity in response to a bubble we develop a model that suggests that this assumption may be appropriate when markets are rising but can be far from reality on the bust side of a bubble during a housing boom new construction and related supply adjustments by developers ensure stable relative prices between low and high quality segments of the housing market on the bust side of a bubble however reduced housing starts allow demand side forces and mortgage default to create pressure for relative prices to diverge across market segments absent a change in technology as markets recover and new construction rebounds relative prices should revert back to pre crash levels evidence based on 2000 2013 single family home sales in phoenix arizona supports this modeling framework additional evidence also suggests that high rates of mortgage default contributed to divergence in relative prices when markets crashed

property tax capitalization in a model with tax deferred assets standard deductions and the taxation of nominal interest previous property tax capitalization studies assume that families itemize that they save in taxable assets and that real interest income is taxed however many families do not itemize many families invest in tax deferred assets and nominal interest income is taxed as a consequence prior studies likely misspecify the property tax capitalization equation for roughly ninety percent of their samples taking federal tax provisions into account increases the precision of our estimated capitalization rate in addition our results suggest that biases in prior studies likely contribute to the variety of capitalization estimates in the literature

relative consumption of housing marginal saving subsidies and income taxes as a second best policy this paper analyzes whether marginal taxation of labor and capital income are useful second best instruments for internalizing the externalities caused by conspicuous housing consumption when the

non temporal components of residential real estate appreciation this paper separates the components of capital appreciation returns in an asset market into fixed and stochastic portions it proposes a control for the problem of fixed components in the capital appreciation return used in transactions based return estimates we find a consistent bias in the index resulting from repeat sales regressions which may be eliminated through simple methods the sign and magnitude of the bias as well as its systematic variation across property suggest that it is caused by incremental home improvements as well as by price risk we propose a maximum likelihood method for estimating the first and second moments of the fixed and temporal components of real estate returns that relies upon relatively small samples copyright 1995 by mit press

loss severities on residential real estate debt during the great recession abstract this study develops estimates of expected loss severities on mortgage exposures using data from florida during the great recession this paper marks the first attempt at addressing sample selectivity in the context of loss models we also construct measures of home equity that are more accurate than those employed in previous studies we find that failing to address sample selection and the use of noisy equity measures in loss models can bias loss estimates significantly we also find significantly higher loss severities and a greater sensitivity of loss severity to equity than what previous studies report

changes in the distribution of house prices over time structural characteristics neighborhood or coefficients quantile hedonic house price function estimates imply that appreciation rates were higher between 1995 and 2005 for high priced homes in chicago decompositions of temporal changes in the house price distribution suggest that the types of homes sold and their location do not account for the change in the price distribution rather higher appreciation rates for high priced homes are explained by differences in the quantile regression coefficients over time

house prices and risk sharing homeowners in the panel study of income dynamics are able to maintain a high level of consumption following job loss or disability in periods of rising local house prices while the consumption drop for homeowners who lose their job in times of lower house prices is substantial these results are consistent with homeowners being able to access wealth gains when housing appreciates as witnessed by their ability to smooth consumption more than renters a calibrated model of endogenous homeownership and consumption is able to reproduce the patterns in the data quite well and provides an interpretation of the empirical results

limits to the value of external costs based on recent insights from the field of risk analysis this paper examines some of the difficulties encountered in attempts to characterise the environmental effects of energy options as monetary externalities more than 20 different dimensions of environmental appraisal are identified and discussed in relation to the historic literature on risk assessment and a number of recent influential environmental valuation studies a survey is conducted of the results obtained over more than a decade for the external environmental costs of electricity supply options theoretical and methodological criticisms are lent support by the finding that environmental valuation results vary over a very wide range of values yielding a variety of rank orderings for the different generating options in addition the values derived for energy externalities are found to be vulnerable to the possible influence of a price imperative the paper concludes by pointing to approaches to the social appraisal of generating technologies which offer greater transparency rigour and accessibility in addressing plural and intrinsically subjective value judgements concerning the different forms and dimensions of environmental effects

infrequent housing adjustment limited participation and monetary policy this paper asks why monetary contractions have strong effects on the housing market the paper presents a model with staggered housing adjustment in which monetary policy has real effects in the absence of any rigidity in producer pricing or wages limited participation in financial markets leads to a rise in the real mortgage rate following an increase in the nominal short rate since households must take on a mortgage to consume housing the rise in the real interest rate reduces the share of residential investment in output

cross country evidence on the link between volatility and growth this paper presents empirical evidence against the standard dichotomy in macroeconomics that separates growth from the volatility of economic fluctuations in a sample of ninety two countries as well as a sample of oecd countries the authors find that countries with higher volatility have lower growth the addition of standard control variables strengthens the negative relationship the authors also find that government spending induced volatility is negatively associated with growth even after controlling for both time and country fixed effects copyright 1995 by american economic association