journal pricing and mergers a portfolio approach despite their influence on the careers of economists the production and pricing of scholarly journals have received scant attention from the profession by contrast the issue of journal quality and scholarly research productivity have been studied in far greater detail a search in the econlit database using the term journal generates several dozen papers on this topic although there may be a number of reasons for this imbalance it is likely that the tenure process combined with the low if not zero effective cost of journals on campuses have influenced our research agenda in other words while professors worry about their job security publish well or perish others their librarians are charged with maintaining free access to all relevant journals of course this pattern is observed not just in economics but across academic disciplines in recent years however easy access to journals has been threatened beset by persistent journal price inflation especially in the socalled stm fields or science technology and medicine and stagnant budgets many university libraries have been forced to reallocate dollars from monographs to journals to postpone the purchase of new journal titles and in some cases to cancel titles as a consequence libraries often relied on interlibrary loans to satisfy faculty demands this situation and its possible causes has been studied at great length in the library science literature with few exceptions a consensus has evolved there which focuses on the growing importance of commercial publishers in the market for scholarly journals over the past decade or more commercial firms have aggressively raised prices at a rate disproportionate to any increase in costs or quality this appears to be especially true for the largest commercial firms although the analysis underlying these conclusions is generally not of the multivariate sort it is suggestive enough to warrant further investigation school of economics georgia institute of technology 781 marietta street nw atlanta ga 30318 e mail mark mccabe econ gatech edu i would like to thank many of my former colleagues at the department of justice including craig conrath renata hesse aaron hoag russ pittman david reitman dan rubinfeld and greg werden as well as jonathan baker cory capps george deltas luke froeb jeffrey mackie mason roger noll dan o brien richard quandt lars hendrik roller steve salop and margaret slade seminar participants at the federal trade commission georgia tech north carolina state university suny stony brook and wissenschaft zentrum berlin and participants at the meetings of the american economic association the european association of research in industrial economics the southern economics association and western economics association the association of research libraries and its members the national library of medicine the georgia tech library and the georgia tech foundation have provided invaluable assistance expert data support was provided by a large group of individuals including deena bernstein claude briggs pat finn doug heslep and steve stiglitz finally i would like to thank the dozens of librarians and publishers who have provided me with important insights 1 the exceptions are janusz a ordover and robert d willig 1978 lisa lieberman et al 1992 george a chressanthis and june d chressanthis 1994 mccabe 2000 and theodore c bergstrom 2001 ordover and willig model the pricing of a single title to institutional and individual subscribers bergstrom s paper discusses the differences between commercial and nonprofit economics journals the other three papers are discussed below 2 increasingly journals are available in both print and digital versions and for some new titles only a digital format is available see carol tenopir and donald king 2000 ch 15 starting in 1998 commercial publishers began placing their content online although major research libraries have generally responded by adding digital access this shift is still in its early stages especially in cases where library collections are more specialized e g the typical biomedical library for this reason as well as the fact that more than two thirds of the sample period occurred in a print only environment the emphasis of this paper is on the behavior of publishers and libraries in a print environment the economic implications of digital access are considered briefly at the conclusion of the paper and are a subject of ongoing research 3 see martha kyrillidou 1999 4 see tenopir and king 2000 ch 13 for a review of this literature an alternative explanation for journal price inflation has been offered by lieberman et al 1992 they argue that entry by new titles over time has lowered circulation for existing journals forcing the latter to raise prices to cover fixed costs

outsourcing retail pricing to a category captain the role of information firewalls it has been argued that retailers lack both the resources and capabilities to maximize category performance retailers may seek category management cm advice from a manufacturer referred to as a category captain cc a cc s recommendations affect all brands in the category not just her own despite an increase in the number of cc collaborations retailers are still concerned about manufacturer opportunism and militant behavior by manufacturers not selected as ccs whereas government agencies are worried about anticompetitive behavior that could harm consumers the federal trade commission recommends strictly enforced information firewalls within a cc s organization as a best practice guideline in this study we develop an empirical model and use policy simulations to quantify the impact of cc arrangements with information firewalls on retailers manufacturers and consumers we show how these effects could be influenced by the deactivation of vertical and horizontal information firewalls within the cc s organization

exchange rates and cash flows in differentiated product industries a simulation approach how do exchange rate changes impact firms cash flows we extend a simulation method developed in industrial organization to answer this question we use prices quantities and product characteristics for differentiated products coupled with a discrete choice framework and an assumption of price competition to estimate marginal costs for all producers using a monte carlo approach we generate counterfactual prices and profits for different levels of exchange rates we illustrate the method using the market for bottled water our results stress that even in a relatively simple market such as this one different brands face very different exchange rate risks consider a firm that produces a good in france using mainly local inputs and sells it abroad in locations that have a floating exchange rate vis a vis the euro profits and in turn the value of the firm are potentially exposed to exchange rate changes if the euro appreciates profits when measured in euros are likely to decrease how large is the decrease in profits similarly what is the impact of such an exchange rate change on the profits of an import competing firm these are the questions that a large literature on exchange rate exposure attempts to answer

security analyst superiority relative to univariate time series models in forecasting quarterly earnings abstract this paper provides evidence of security analyst sa superiority relative to univariate time series ts models in predicting firms quarterly earnings numbers and shows that sa forecast superiority in our sample is attributable to 1 better utilization of information existing on the date that ts model forecasts can be initiated a contemporaneous advantage and 2 use of information acquired between the date of initiation of ts model forecasts and the date when sa forecasts are published a timing advantage

rational behavior and economic theory abstract nowadays it seems almost universally presumed that the fundamental characteristic of homo oeconomicus is his rationality we analyze the role played by the concept of rationality in economic theory and demonstrate that it is necessarily constrained to be an essentially contentless notion we show that the main body of economic theory is firmly grounded and that some contrasting approaches to rationality although leading to heated debates and vivid confusion have no fundamental significance for economics with a refereshed view on the essence of economics we argue that the principles of economic theory form an essential methodological guide for the emergent line of research based on the use of so called evolutive models

additional information for comments on alternative models of demand for automobiles by charlotte wojcik abstract in a recent paper in this journal econ lett 68 2000 113 wojcik argues that the nested logit is likely to be superior to demand specifications we and others have used in recent empirical work we review the relevant models and their uses consider her application and find that her conclusions are incorrect

product differentiation cost reducing mergers and consumer welfare cost synergies are an explicitly recognized justification for a two firm merger and empirical techniques are now widely used to assess the impact of cost reducing mergers on prices and welfare in the post merger market we show that if the merger occurs in a vertically product differentiated market then the merger will lead to a reduction in product offerings that limits the usefulness of pre merger empirical estimates indeed we further show that in such markets two firm mergers will typically lead to higher prices regardless of the merger s cost savings jel classifica tion l10 l41 differentiation des produits fusions pour reduire les couts et bien etre du consommateur les synergies de couts sont une justification explicitement reconnue pour la fusion de deux firmes et il existe des techniques empiriques vastement utilisees pour mesurer l impact des fusions visant areduire les couts sur les prix et le niveau de bien etre dans le marcheapres la fusion on montre que si la fusion se produit dans un marchede produit differencieintegreverticalement alors la fusion reduit l even tail de produits ce qui limite l utilitedes estimations empiriques faites avant la fusion de plus on montre que dans de tels marches les fusions de deux firmes finissent par engendrer des prix plus eleves quelles que soient les reductions de couts auxquelles on en arrive

learning by imitation abstract this paper introduces a learning algorithm that allows for imitation in recursive dynamic games the kiyotaki wright model of money is a well known example of such decision environments in this context learning by experience has been studied before here we introduce imitation as an additional channel for learning in numerical simulations we observe that the presence of imitation either speeds up social convergence to the theoretical markov nash equilibrium or leads every agent of the same type to the same mode of suboptimal behavior we observe an increase in the probability of convergence to equilibrium as the incentives for optimal play become more pronounced

is peer review in decline i introduction for the past half century or more peer reviewed journals have played a central role in the evaluation and dissemination of scientific research the internet has enhanced scientific communication in many ways and there is considerable excitement around new institutions for disseminating research 1 a more sobering thought however is that new technologies can also be disruptive this paper begins with some documentation of recent trends in economics publishing roughly the trends involve economists from top ranked departments publishing fewer papers in many top journals this could be a welcome change but is also potentially troublesome one way in which the internet could be disruptive is that it could allow high profile researchers to disseminate their work without subjecting it to peer review which in turn could lead to a broader unraveling of the peer review system the majority of the paper is then devoted to analyses of several additional data sources with the goal of understanding better what may be causing the observed trends the facts part of this paper documents two main facts 1 economists in top ranked departments now publish very few papers in top field journals there is a marked decline in such publications between the early 1990s and early 2000s 2 comparing the early 2000s with the early 1990s there is a decline in both the absolute number of papers and the share of papers in the top general interest journals written by harvard economics department faculty although the second fact just concerns one department i see it as potentially important to understanding what is happening because it comes at a time when harvard is widely regarded i believe correctly as having ascended to the top position in the profession the decline of peer review theory i allude to in the title is that the necessity of going through the peer review process has lessened for high status authors in the old days peer reviewed journals were by far the most effective means of reaching readers whereas with the growth of the internet high status authors can now post papers online and exploit their reputation to attract readers many alternate explanations are possible i focus on four theories the decline in peer review theory and three alternatives 1 the trends could be a consequence of top school authors being crowded out of the top journals by other researchers several such stories have an optimistic message for example there is more talent entering the profession old pro elite biases are being broken down more schools are encouraging faculty to do cutting edge research and the internet is enabling more cutting edge research by breaking down informational barriers that had hampered researchers outside the top schools 2 2 the trends could be a consequence of the growth of revisions at economics journals discussed in ellison 2002a 2002b in this more pessimistic theory highly productive researchers must abandon some projects and or seek out faster outlets to conserve the time now required to publish their most important works 3 the trends could simply reflect that field journals have declined in quality in some relative sense and become a less attractive place to publish this theory is meant to encompass also the rise of new journals which is not obviously desirable or undesirable the majority of this paper is devoted to examining various data sources that provide additional details about how economics publishing has changed over the past decade these are intended both to sharpen understanding of the facts to be explained and to provide tests of auxiliary predictions of the theories two main sources of information are used data on publications and data on citations the publication data include department level counts of publications in various additional journals an individual level dataset containing records of publications in a subset of journals for thousands of economists and a very small dataset containing complete data on a few authors publication records

do inventory and gross margin data improve sales forecasts for u s public retailers firm level sales forecasts for retailers can be improved if we incorporate cost of goods sold inventory and gross margin defined by us as the ratio of sales to cost of goods sold as three endogenous variables we construct a simultaneous equations model estimated using public financial and nonfinancial data to provide joint forecasts of annual cost of goods sold inventory and gross margin for retailers using historical data we show that sales forecasts from this model are more accurate than consensus forecasts from equity analysts further the residuals from this model for one fiscal year are used to predict retailers for whom the relative advantage of model forecasts over consensus forecasts would be large in the next fiscal year our results show that historical inventory and gross margin contain information useful to forecast sales and that equity analysts do not fully utilize this information in their sales forecasts

rules of thumb versus dynamic programming this paper studies decision making with rules of thumb in the context of dynamic decision problems and compares it to dynamic programming a rule is a fixed mapping from a subset of states into actions rules are compared by averaging over past experiences this can lead to favoring rules which are only applicable in good states correcting this good state bias requires solving the dynamic program we provide a generalframework and characterize the asymptotic properties we apply it to provide a candidate explanation for the sensitivity of consumption to transitory income jel eoo c63 c61 e21

applied welfare economics with discrete choice models economists have been paying increasing attention to the study of situations in which consumers face a discrete rather than a continuous set of choices such models are potentially very important in evaluating the impact of government programs upon consumer welfare but very little has been said in general regarding the tools of applied welfare economics indiscrete choice situations this paper shows how the conventional methods of applied welfare economics can be modified to handle such cases it focuses on the computation of the excess burden of taxation and the evaluation of quality change the results are applied to stochastic utility models including the popular cases of probit and logit analysis throughout the emphasis is on providing rigorous guidelines for carrying out applied work this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

mergers with differentiated products the case of the ready to eat cereal industry traditional merger analysis is difficult to implement when evaluating mergers in industries with differentiated products i discuss an alternative which consists of demand estimation and the use of a model of postmerger conduct to simulate the competitive effects of a merger i estimate a brand level demand system for ready to eat cereal using supermarket scanner data and use the estimates to 1 recover marginal costs 2 simulate postmerger price equilibria and 3 compute welfare effects under a variety of assumptions the methodology is applied to five mergers two of which occurred and for which i compare predicted to actual outcomes

universalism and the value of political power although legislatures typically use majority rule to allocate a budget in distributive legislation unanimous consent over the broad allocation of benefits is pervasive i develop a game theoretic model where members strategically interact in a universal coalition to determine allocations with noncooperative bargaining as a threat point for the breakdown of cooperation to quantify the effects of political power on the agreed upon allocation i structurally estimate the model using the bridge bill capital budget in 1992 i find that 16 73 of the budget would be allocated differently if allocations were determined only based on actual needs

the relative and complementary performance of analyst and security price based measures of expected earnings abstract this paper evaluates the relative performance of ibes consensus financial analyst forecasts and forecasts based upon the anticipatory behaviour of security prices according to two criteria a the accuracy of earnings growth predictions and b the contemporaneous association between unexpected earnings and security returns during the forecast year results are presented for firms in differing size groups measured here by market capitalization the results indicate that neither forecast source is superior to the other in terms of either criterion there is however significant complementarity of financial analyst and price based forecasts

rules of thumb for social learning this paper studies agents who consider the experiences of their neighbors in deciding which of two technologies to use we analyze two learning environments one in which the same technology is optimal for all players and another in which each technology is better for some of them in both environments players use exogenously specified rules of thumb that ignore historical data but may incorporate a tendency to use the more popular technology in some cases these naive rules can lead to fairly efficient decisions in the long run but adjustment can be slow when a superior technology is first introduced

characteristics of demand for pharmaceutical products an examination of four cephalosporins we model demand for four cephalosporins and compute own and cross price elasticities between branded and generic versions of the four drugs we model demand as a multistage budgeting problem and we argue that such a model is appropriate to the multistage nature of the purchase of pharmaceutical products in particular the prescribing and dispensing stages we find quite high elasticities between generic substitutes and also significant elasticities between some therapeutic substitutes

money as a medium of exchange in an economy with artificially intelligent agents abstract we study the exchange economies of kiyotaki and wright 1989 in which agents must use a commodity or fiat money as a medium of exchange if trade is to occur our agents are artificially intelligent and are modeled as using classifier systems to make decisions in the assignment of credit within the classifier systems we introduce some innovations designed to study sequential decision problems in a multi agent environment for most economies that we have simulated trading and consumption patterns converge to a stationary nash equilibrium even if agents start with random rules in economies with multiple equilibria the only equilibrium that emerges in our simulations is the one in which goods with low storage costs play the role of medium of exchange i e the fundamental equilibrium of kiyotaki and wright

on money as a medium of exchange we analyze economies in which individuals specialize in consumption and production and meet randomly over time in a way that implies that trade must be bilateral and quid pro quo nash equilibria in trading strategies are characterized certain goods emerge endogenously as media of exchange or commodity money depending both on their intrinsic properties and on extrinsic beliefs there are also equilibria with genuine fiat currency circulating as the general medium of exchange we find that equilibria are not generally pareto optimal and that introducing fiat currency into a commodity money economy may unambiguously improve welfare velocity acceptability and liquidity are discussed

airline code share alliances and their competitive effects abstract code share alliances have become a prominent feature in the competitive landscape of the airline industry however policy makers are extremely hesitant to approve proposed code share alliances when the potential partners route networks have significant overlap the main concern is that an alliance may facilitate price collusion on partners overlapping routes this article shows how policy makers can use a structural econometric framework to quantify the competitive effects of proposed code share alliances where potential alliance partners compete on overlapping routes in the prealliance industry as an example i apply the econometric model to the delta continental northwest alliance this proposed alliance was initially greeted with skepticism by the u s department of transportation owing to the potential partners unprecedented level of route network overlap for the markets considered in my analyses it appears as though the ultimate approval of the alliance by policy makers was justified

the gains from merger or collusion in product differentiated industries a merger in an industry with differentiated products increases the market power of the merging firms to the extent that their products are close substitutes and that other firms produce only more distant substitutes such a merger makes the residual demand curve of each partner steeper by shifting each in the direction of the industry demand curve 2 the extent of this increase in market power depends upon the own elasticity of demand for each merging firm s product as well as the cross elasticity of demand for each with all other firms products as a result evaluating the effect of a merger between two firms with n 2 other competitors would seem to require the estimation of at least n2 parameters all of the price elasticities of demand a formidable task that extremely difficult estimation task is unnecessary however the necessary information is contained in the slopes of the two single firm residual demand curves before the merger and the extent to which the merged firm will face a steeper demand curve for example suppose a merger between two u s brewing firms say pabst and anheuser busch were proposed it is not particularly important to determine whether it is competition from miller or competition from stroh or from heileman or which puts the most effective brake on anheuser busch s pricing only the total effect of these other firms and the particular effect of competition from pabst are of interest this paper proposes econometric procedures for estimating the demand system that merger partners will face based only on pre merger data the key to the procedures is that the effects of all other firms in the industry are summed together formally we start with a model of an n firm product differentiated industry manipulation of the model removes the prices and quantities of all but two firms this reduces the dimensionality of the problem to manageable size rather than an n firm demand system we estimate a two firm residual demand system in this way the technique extends our econometric method for

collection sales good or bad for journals this paper discusses the impact of collection sales i e the bundling of several journals for sale by publishers to libraries on journals the advent of electronic journal distribution implies that bundling is an efficient sales strategy and can act to extend the reach of a journal current arrangements are discussed and shown to lead to tensions between commercial publishers and non profit journals the paper argues that non profit journals should not necessarily abandon collection sales programmes rather non profit journals may benefit from withdrawing from commercial publishers which distribute their own for profit journals and joining together to be distributed by less commercial publishers who set relatively low prices for their collections

estimating multiple discrete choice models an application to computerization returns buyers in many markets face multiple discrete choices they can purchase multiple units as well as multiple brands at the same time this paper presents a multiple discrete choice model for the analysis of differentiated products demand users maximize profits by choosing the number of units of each brand they purchase i estimate the model using micro level data on the demand for personal computers i use the estimated demand structure to assess the welfare gains from computerization and technological innovation in peripherals the estimated return on investment in personal computers is 92 moreover a 10 increase in the performance to price ratio of microprocessors leads to a 2 2 gain in the estimated user surplus the personal computer pc market is of interest to industrial organization economists because of its size the continual technological change and above all because of the farreaching implications of pcs on the economy as a whole several distinct features make pc demand difficult to model pcs are a differentiated durable good in constant technological evolution moreover buyers make multiple discrete choices firms according to our data spread their purchases of pcs over different brands at the same time they buy pcs in blocks several units of each brand that they have chosen the aim of the paper is to present a model that captures these features and to use this model to estimate the welfare gains from computerization classical discrete choice models allow one choice among mutually exclusive alternatives in contrast the proposed framework allows users to demand multiple units and multiple brands the model can be applied to other cases of multiple discrete choices e g the composition of airline fleets car holdings per household the fields of the faculty in economics departments household cereals consumption or any other good consumed in more than one variety during a relevant time period although pervasive multiple discrete choice problems have received little attention because of their complexity a central issue regarding the pc market is the current controversy in the economics literature about the computerization puzzle this puzzle stems from the empirical finding that computerization has had no effect on firm productivity griliches and siegel 1991 and morrison and berndt 1990 contrary to those results hendel 1994 and lichtenberg 1995 using more disaggregate data than most previous studies report excess returns to computerization this indicates that data aggregation may have created the computerization puzzle in this paper i present a model consistent with the basic

a learning to forecast experiment on the foreign exchange market with a classifier system abstract this paper reports on an experiment of learning and forecasting on the foreign exchange market by means of an artificial intelligence methodology a classifier system which simulates learning and adaptation in complex and changing environments the experiment has been run for two different exchange rates the us dollar d mark rate and the us dollar yen rate representative of two possibly different market environments a fictitious artificial agent is first trained on a monthly data base from 1973 to 1990 and then tested out of sample from 1990 to 1992 its forecasting performance is then compared with the performance of decision rules which follow the prescription of various economic theories on exchange rate behaviour and the performance of forecasts given by var estimations of the exchange rate s determinants

learning to speculate experiments with artificial and real agents abstract this paper employs an artificial agent based computational approach to understanding and designing laboratory environments in which to test kiyotaki and wright s search model of money the behavioral rules of the artificial agents are modeled on the basis of prior evidence from human subject experiments simulations of the artificial agent based model are conducted in two new versions of the kiyotaki wright environment and yield some testable predictions these predictions are examined using data from new human subject experiments the results are encouraging and suggest that artificial agent based modeling may be a useful device for both understanding and designing human subject experiments

the information content of earnings revenues and expenses in this paper we model risk adjusted returns at earnings announcements as a function of unexpected revenues and unexpected expenses in order to test for the information content of the components of earnings as well as for their incremental information content over earnings we use value line vl forecasts of earnings and revenues as a proxy for the market s expectation of these numbers and as a basis for the market s expectation of expenses we find both revenues and expenses have information content that is incremental to earnings we also model riskadjusted returns as a function of earnings and revenues to compare our findings with previous research that used a martingale model to derive expected revenues consistent with previous research we find no incremental information content in revenues in this formulation however we find information content in both earnings and revenues when expectations are taken from vl forecasts wilson 1986 found that investors used the earnings and revenues released at the preliminary announcement date to forecast the accruals and funds subsequently disclosed in the annual report or 10 k however he found no evidence of information content for revenues at this date wilson used prior periods revenues cash from operations current and noncurrent accruals and capital expenditures to predict revenues using

demand estimation and merger simulations for drugs logits v aids abstract we use adhd drugs sales data from 2000 2003 and compare estimates of elasticities and merger simulations from three different demand models models include logit random coefficients logit and conditional aids demand model with multistage budgeting the magnitude of cross price elasticities is larger in the third model in comparison to the first two and some of the cross price elasticities are estimated to be negative hypothetical merger simulations show larger price effects for the multistage aids model in comparison to the discrete choice models

emergence of money as a medium of exchange an experimental study findings are reported from an experiment that implements a search theoretic model of money as a medium of exchange the question is whether subjects learn to adopt the same commodities as media of exchange that the model predicts will be used in equilibrium it is reported that subjects have a strong tendency to play fundamental rather than speculative strategies even in environments where speculative strategies yield higher payoffs some possible motivations for subjects behavior are examined and it is concluded that subjects are mainly motivated by past payoff experience as opposed to the marketability considerations that the theory emphasizes

experimental evidence on money as a medium of exchange abstract this paper presents an experimental examination of kiyotaki and wright s 1989 model of how money can arise as a medium of exchange while the results generally support the hypothesis that individuals are willing to utilize a good as a medium of exchange the trading patterns of a portion of the individuals deviated from the predicted patterns simulation studies suggest that while these deviations may have initially been a rational response by these subjects they persisted after they became less than optimal

financial analysts forecasts of earnings a better surrogate for market expectations abstract the specification of the market expectation of accounting numbers is a common feature of many empirical studies in accounting and finance givoly and lakonishok 1979 found that financial analysts forecasts have information content this study evaluates the quality of analysts forecasts as surrogates for the market expectation of earnings and compares it with that of prediction models commonly used in research results indicate that prediction errors of analysts are more closely associated with security price movements suggesting that analysts forecasts provide a better surrogate for market expectations than forecasts generated by time series models the study also identifies factors that might contribute to the performance of the financial analysts forecasts the broadness of the information set employed by analysts and to a lesser extent their reliance on information released after the end of the fiscal year appear to be important contributors to their performance

liquidity a new monetarist perspective this essay surveys the new monetarist approach to liquidity work in this literature strives for empirical and policy relevance plus rigorous foundations questions include what is liquidity is money essential in achieving desirable outcomes which objects can or should serve in this capacity when can asset prices differ from fundamentals what are the functions of commitment and collateral in credit markets how does money interact with credit and intermediation what can and should monetary policy do the research summarized emphasizes the micro structure of frictional transactions and studies how institutions like monetary exchange credit arrangements or intermediation facilitate the exchange process

academic journal pricing and the demand of libraries the prices of for profit academic journals have increased rapidly over the past decade barbara albee and brenda dingley 2001 there remains substantial debate as to the explanation for these increases among those put forward are the increased concentration of the journal industry see e g mccabe 2002 and the relatively recent effort by major publishers to bundle print and electronic journals aaron s edlin and rubinfeld 2004 while both explanations are undoubtedly important what is missing is the significant role of the primary customers of journal publishers the academic libraries as agents of college and university faculties libraries serve the interests of their principals while having only limited information about faculty journal demands facing little or no hard budget constraint faculty are unlikely or unwilling to make difficult allocative choices as a result libraries have been making hard choices for years between journals and books and among journals in a world of increasing budgetary pressure given that electronic transmission of knowledge is becoming increasingly important an understanding of the reasons for the increases in journal prices is a vital element in the ongoing discussion of best mechanisms by which scholarly communications can be disseminated in this paper we formulate a model of library journal demand and suggest how it can be used to analyze the optimal pricing of journals by publishers this represents part of a larger project whose long range goal is to explain the pattern of journal pricing over time and to evaluate two broad policy questions i to what extent have mergers and or bundling practices been responsible for the increase in journal prices ii to what extent are journal prices likely to change in response to changing library acquisition strategies reallocation of budgets between serials and books journal sharing among libraries setting hard budgets etc

14 week quarters many firms define their fiscal quarters as 13 week periods for these firms each fiscal year contains 52 weeks which leaves out one two day s a year to compensate one extra week is added to every fifth sixth year consequently one quarter therein comprises 14 weeks we find evidence of predictable stock returns and forecast errors in 14 week quarters which suggests that investors and analysts do not on average adjust their expectations for the extra week the ease with which 14 week quarters can be predicted and expectations adjusted suggests a surprising lack of effort on the part of investors and analysts