a political economy model of congressional careers our main goal is to quantify the returns to a career in the united states congress we specify a dynamic model of career decisions of a member of congress and estimate this model using a newly collected dataset given estimates of the structural model we assess reelection probabilities estimate the effect of congressional experience on private and public sector wages and quantify the value of congressional seat moreover we assess how an increase in the congressional wage or the imposition of term limits would affect the career decisions of politicians and the returns from a career in congress

term limits and pork barrel politics abstract we develop a dynamic model of democratic politics in which both potential office holders and the electorate have heterogeneous ideologies voters have incomplete information about candidate ideologies so they must use information from previous positions taken in office to make informed re election decisions we characterize the effects of term limits on the evolution over time of the ideological positions taken by office holders and derive the implications for voter choice and welfare contributions of our paper include we detail how pork provision by more senior incumbents interacts with term limits to affect electoral outcomes pork provision transfers of resources from districts with junior legislators to districts with more senior legislators induces voters to be more forgiving of extreme location by incumbents especially incumbents in small or poor districts pork provision can explain why re election probabilities in congress exceed those for governors term limits reduce voter welfare when all that matters are the ideological positions taken by the office holder term limits may be advantageous when senior incumbents can extract benefits for their constituencies at the expense of districts with more junior representatives large or rich districts especially value term limits when there is substantial pork provision we characterize the welfare of all voters not just the median voter

on the inverse of the covariance matrix in portfolio analysis the goal of this paper is the derivation and application of a direct characterization of the inverse of the covariance matrix central to portfolio analysis such a characterization in terms of a few primitive constructs provides the basis for new and illuminating expressions for key concepts as the optimal holding of a given risky asset and the slope of the risk return efficiency frontier faced by the individual investor the building blocks of the inverse turn out to be the regression coefficients and residual variance obtained by regressing the asset s excess return on the set of excess returns for all other risky assets copyright the american finance association 1998

industry classifications and return comovement a company s industry affiliation is commonly used to construct homogeneous stock groupings for portfolio risk management relative valuation and peer group comparisons a variety of industry classification systems have been adopted however creating disagreements as to companies industry assignments this analysis of the global industry classification system gics and fama french system indicates that common movement in returns and operating performance resulting from industry effects is stronger for stocks of large companies than for those of small companies also increasingly fine levels of disaggregation improve discrimination up to six digit gics codes after which the benefits tail off stock groupings based on industry exhibit stronger out of sample homogeneity than groups formed from statistical cluster analysis

economic and other determinants of infant and child mortality in small developing countries the case of central america and the caribbean inter country differences in infant and child mortality are explained by looking at demographic economic health and educational factors a model is presented in which the infant mortality rate the child mortality rate and the birth rate are endogenous the model is tested using cross national multiple regression analysis and simulations the presence of simultaneity is confirmed introducing non economic factors transforms the character of the relationship between exogenous and endogenous variables from a diminishing returns to an increasing returns one the role played by public expenditure in education vaccination coverage low birth weight female schooling number of nurses access to safe water or malnutrition can be assessed as well as that played by structural adjustment variables such as the inflation rate or the external debt to gnp ratio infant and child mortality can be diminished everywhere in the region with relatively small amounts of expenditure disappointing outcomes in som

dynamic expected shortfall a spectral decomposition of tail risk across time horizons abstract the tail risk of financial institutions is traditionally measured by expected shortfall es that does not characterize risk changes over investment horizons using wavelet analysis we propose a new method to capture the dynamics of es across time horizons the new method decomposes the stock return of financial institutions into different frequency e g short mid and long run components and then models the dynamics of these components separately to produce an aggregated es forecast we provide numerical and empirical examples to illustrate the new method we also study the relevance of each frequency component to out of sample es forecasts over different predictive horizons our empirical results confirm that the different frequency components of stock returns exhibit different persistence explicitly considering this distinction when modeling es significantly improves the out of sample forecasting performance in addition excluding the long run e g yearly return component can largely reduce short run e g weekly or monthly es forecasts without impacting the regulatory quality of the risk assessment

determinants of women s health status and health care utilization in a developing country a latent variable approach a latent variable representation of health is used in a system that determines health and various indicators of health and health care utilization for nicaraguan women estimates differ somewhat from standard estimates they imply that women s schooling increases health care utilization literate women report less disease incidence women s childhood backgrounds affect their adult health and health care utilization and general resources favor childbirth related care but women s full income favors general care the most significant result is that several important characteristics usually associated with development women s schooling household resources and women s labor force participation have inverse or no associations with women s health health status is hypothesized to be important in developing countries both as a direct indicator of welfare and because of its possible impact on productivity health care utilization also is of interest both because of its relation to health status and because it is a particular manifestation of demand and supply for a 1 modem service work on the determinants of health status and health care utilization in developing economies however is flawed because true health status is not directly observable the indicators of health status that have been used in empirical studies anthropometric measures days ill self reported or clinical disease records inputs such as nutrients and health care utilization indicesare imperfect indicators of underlying health status and generally do not give a congruent representation of that status thereby they may not measure adequately health status and their use may lead to biases in estimates and incorrect interpretations we use a latent variable methodology for the first time to explore health status and health care utilization in a developing country this approach employs systematic relations between various indicators of health status and health status itself and between health status and various related outcomes so that it is possible to estimate the determinants of health status and control for health status in other relations even though health status is not directly observed by using this methodology we obtain more satisfactory estimates of the determinants of health status and of health care utilization in a developing country context than previous estimates using direct but imperfect proxies this should improve the empirical bases for evaluating health and related policies in the developing world i latent variable model of health status and health care utilization in the human capital tradition of analysis of health individual health status is viewed as determined by individual demand factors given supply prices environment age and resources including genes health care utilization is a derived demand for a service which is used to produce better health to incorporate the latent variable representation of the unobserved health status we assume that the demand supply health status and health care utilization interactions as well as the relation of other health indicators to health status can be represented by the following linear system of relations

term limits and electoral accountability abstract periodic elections are the main instrument through which voters can hold politicians accountable from this perspective term limits which restrict voters ability to reward politicians with re election appear counterproductive we show that despite the disciplining effect of elections term limits can be ex ante welfare improving from the perspective of voters by reducing the value of holding office term limits can induce politicians to implement policies that are closer to their private preferences such truthful behavior by incumbents in turn results in better screening of incumbents we characterize under which circumstances two term or even longer term limits are the optimal institution for voters

determinants of child mortality health and nutrition in a developing country abstract child health and nutrition status are important determinants of adult productivities and earnings and thus are an important channel of intergenerational socioeconomic mobility building upon economic models of household behavior we investigate the determinants of child mortality and health and nutrition status in regions defined by the degree of urbanization in the developing country of nicaragua and offer some policy suggestions our estimates suggest that determinants differ significantly across regions income is not an important factor there is an inverse relation with number of siblings and there are positive associations with calorie intake schooling except in the relatively low income rural areas the availability of refrigeration and the quality of sewage systems

an analysis of childhood malnutrition in rural india role of gender income and other household characteristics there are controversies regarding the role of individual and household characteristics in childhood nutritional status measured by anthropometric indicators using a nutrition index based on weight for age of children in rural india the paper re examines this issue ordered probit estimates of nutritional status suggest female literacy improves the nutritional status of boys at the cost of girls while higher per capita current income improves that of both boys and girls though the impact is higher for boys however effect of income is not robust when we use instruments of longer run income but more income and literacy give more ways to discriminate between boys and girls

on the sensitivity of mean variance efficient portfolios to changes in asset means some analytical and computational results tbis paper investigates the sensitivity of meanvariance mv efficientportfolios to changes in the means of individual assets when only a budget constraint is imposed on the investment problem the analytical results indicate that an mv efficient portfolio s weights mean and variance can be extremely sensitive to cbanges in asset means when nonnegativity constraints are also imposed on the problem the computational results confirm that a positively weigbted mv efficient portfolio s weigbts are extremely sensitive to cbanges in asset means but the portfolio s returns are not a surprisingly small increase in the mean of just one asset drives balf the securities from the portfolio yet the portfolio s expected return and standard deviation are virtually uncbanged this paper supersedes should investors hold well diversified portfolios financial support from the natural science and engineering research council of canada is gratefully acknowledged we also acknowledge the most capable assistance of ruth cornale simon ng jean marc potier and frederick shen the paper was presented at simon fraser university and the western finance association meetings in san diego we thank the participants especially stephen brown john herzog john heaney ray koopman and bruce lehmann and the editors jon ingersoll and chester spatt for

a more general approach to fertility determination in a developing country the importance of biological supply considerations endogenous tastes and unperceived jointness the chicago columbia economic model of fertility emphasizes that both the number quantity and the unobservable quality of children are arguments in the parental preference function focus is generally on demand determinants with fixed tastes biological supply considerations gernerally are deemphasized the major alternative to the chicago columbia model is the pennsylvaina model which emphasizes that parental utility is conditional on norms regarding family size and own consumption empirical tests which shed some light on the relevance of the chicago columbia versus the pennsylvania models for understanding fertility determination in a developing country were conducted on a sample of nicaraguan women aged 15 45 using a more general fertility model epw which encompasses features of both models the estimation of a linear approximation to the fertility determination relation resulting from a generalized model includes 3 sets of variables 1 those included in standard chicago columbia empirical estimates 2 some related to the pennsylvaina models emphasis on natural fertility supply factors and 3 some related to the latter models emphasis on endogenous norms tastes the pennsylvania model with its emphasis on supply tastes and unperceived jointness adds to the understanding of the empirical completed fertility experience in the nicaraguan sample beyond that of the standard chicago columbia model the implications of this basic result are numerous and may be quite important in understanding fertility behavior in developing economies and in devising appropriate related policies 4 examples are given 1 fertility behavior may be more complicated than assumed in conventional chicago columbia analyses 2 results suggest that it may be important to analyze fertility and to formulate policy within a larger framework which integrates fertility and health and nutrition concerns 3 if tastes are important and endogenous as the results suggest they are interpretations of the impact of fertility changes on private welfare are much more ambiguous than often is realised 4 some conventional interpretations of the variables in the standard model may be misleading in understanding and in policy formulation standard chicago columbia variables are womens schooling and household income the full epw pennsylvania model correlates the supply variables parasites therapeutically treatable medically preventable womens age age of 1st cohabitation months breastfed nutrition the taste variables religious or civil marriage religious services month residence birth rate siblings parents present migration currently or in childhood and compares them to the chicago columbia variables outcome on the nicaraguan sample

large dynamic covariance matrices second moments of asset returns are important for risk management and portfolio selection the problem of estimating second moments can be approached from two angles time series and the cross section in time series the key is to account for conditional heteroscedasticity a favored model is dynamic conditional correlation dcc derived from the arch garch family started by engle 1982 in the cross section the key is to correct in sample biases of sample covariance matrix eigenvalues a favored model is nonlinear shrinkage derived from random matrix theory rmt the present article marries these two strands of literature to deliver improved estimation of large dynamic covariance matrices supplementary material for this article is available online

the poor and the social sectors during a period of macroeconomic adjustment empirical evidence for jamaica considerable uncertainty remains about the human impact of macroeconomic adjustment analysis of the impact of adjustment on the poor and on the social sectors is difficult because it involves evaluating a counterfactual situation in which households are affected by prices incomes and public services with the possibility of substantial substitutions all within an economywide framework with complicated concurrent and lagged interactions time series data for jamaica is utilized in this article to examine whether macroeconomic adjustment initiated in the early 1980s but intensified in 1984 85 was associated with significant deterioration in various indicators of health nutritional and welfare outcomes particularly among the poor although the authors find evidence of substantial cuts in governmental expenditures on social services there is little confirmation of significant short run deterioration in human capital indicators during the adjustment period

does electoral accountability affect economic policy choices evidence from gubernatorial term limits this paper analyzes the behavior of u s governors from 1950 to 1986 to investigate a reputation building model of political behavior we argue that differences in the behavior of governors who face a binding term limit and those who are able to run again provides a source of variation in discount rates that can be used to test a political agency model we find evidence that taxes spending and other policy instruments respond to a binding term limit if a democrat is in office the result is a fiscal cycle in term limit states which lowers state income when the term limit binds

large scale minimum variance portfolio allocation using double regularization abstract estimation of time varying covariances is a crucial input in minimum variance mv portfolio allocations rolling window based sample estimates are widely used for this purpose but they usually suffer from two major issues when applied to a moderately large number of assets the curse of dimensionality and temporal instability here we propose a double regularized estimator for a high dimensional covariance matrix in which we impose both a temporal and cross sectional sparsity regularization on the sample based estimates to simultaneously mitigate these two issues we investigate the performance of our proposed covariance estimator for mv portfolio construction using monte carlo experiments and empirical examples we find that the resulting mv portfolio strikes a good balance between risk and turnover reduction and produces more accurate equivalent returns after transaction costs are taken into account when compared to four other mv strategies

investments in schooling in two generations in pre revolutionary nicaragua the roles of family background and school supply abstract family background and school supply underlie the demand and supply for schooling but are usually ignored in empirical estimates these considerations are investigated for two generations in nicaragua using unique data on adult sisters and their offspring to identify inter versus intrafamilial effects and to control for unobserved family background the results suggest that the standard interpretations are misleading 1 unobserved family background and school supply factors are important in schooling determination 2 omission of these factors leads to overestimates of impacts of parental schooling and family size 3 both parental schooling and family size primarily represent unobserved family background and school supply in standard estimates

schooling and economic well being the role of nonmarket effects standard estimates of the economic value of additional schooling based on earnings differences associated with differences in the level of schooling attained cover only a portion of the total effects of education that are valued by citizens we first identify a catalog of nonmarketed effects many of which have been recently studied by economists and then propose a procedure for estimating a willingness to pay value for these effects using empirical estimates of the magnitude of a selection of these effects found in the literature we calculate willingness to pay values using our proposed procedure these illustrative calculations suggest that standard estimates of the benefit of incremental schooling substantially understate the full value of such investments

reconciling voters behavior with legislative term limits a puzzle exists over why voters continually re elect their congressional and state representatives although these same voters often support initiatives to limit the number of terms that their legislators may serve residents of california colorado and oklahoma voted in 1990 to limit the terms of their state legislators to tenures ranging from six to twelve years 1 in california these same voters however re elected 87 of 91 or 96 percent of all incumbent state representatives and senators whose terms they sought to limit 2 among re elected incumbents 67 or 77 percent had served as long as or longer than the maximum term prescribed under their state s term limit initiative voters defeated only two incumbents who would have been removed under the terms of california s tenure restrictions had they been in effect similar voter behavior characterized recent state elections in colorado and oklahoma 3 more generally these seemingly contradictory voter preferences also are apparent in public opinion polls at the federal level while 62 percent of voters immediately prior to the 1990 general elections indicated their intentions to reelect their congressman that same poll showed that only 24 percent said they approve of the way congress is handling its job gallup and newport 1990 pp 36 37 support for term limit initiatives and the low public esteem of legislators as a group both appear to be inconsistent with voters strong preferences for their own representative and the regular reelection of incumbents

why did the incumbency advantage in u s house elections grow theory a simple rational entry argument suggests that the value of incumbency consists not just of a direct effect reflecting the value of resources such as staff attached to legislative office but also of an indirect effect reflecting the fact that stronger challengers are less likely to contest incumbent held seats the indirect effect is the product of a scare off effect the ability of incumbents to scare off high quality challengers and a quality effect reflecting how much electoral advantage a party accrues when it has an experienced rather than an inexperienced candidate hypothesis the growth of the overall incumbency advantage was driven principally by increases in the quality effect methods we use a simple two equation model estimated by ordinary least squares regression to analyze u s house election data from 1948 to 1990 results most of the increase in the incumbency advantage at least down to 1980 came through increases in the quality effect i e the advantage to the incumbent party of having a low quality challenger this suggests that the task for those wishing to explain the growth in the vote denominated incumbency advantage is to explain why the quality effect grew it also suggests that resource based explanations of the growth in the incumbency advantage cannot provide a full explanation

the impact of demographic changes on income distribution in a developing country abstract a common hypothesis regarding the distribution of income is that it tends to become more unequal in the initial and middle stages of economic development in part because of demographic changes however previous studies of the effect of demographic changes on income distribution are not based on the underlying micro determinants of the income components we provide such estimates the micro determinants of the probability of receipt and amount received conditional on receipt of four income components are estimated for three regions defined by the degree of urbanization five simulations of hypothetical demographic changes are conducted the simulated effects on some of the regional income component distributions are fairly considerable in regard both to equalizing the distributions and increasing the shares of the poorest however the overall effects are regressive in both urban and rural regions

flip flopping ideological adjustment costs in the united states senate models of electoral competition in which candidates can change position at no cost predict the convergence of platforms in a two candidate election such convergence is at odds with empirical observation in this paper i undertake a study of candidate positioning in the united states senate and determine the extent to which electoral costs associated with changing position explain the ideological positions taken by senators using over 50 years of roll call voting data i use a simulated method of moments approach to estimate a dynamic model of candidate positioning for u s senators the ndings support a model in which senators face convex costs to changing position with the best tting model being one with linear costs of adjustment the model thus predicts severe punishments for ip opping senators those who make large changes in position as a result of the signi cant costs associated with adjusting position the empirical validity of the median voter theorem which depends upon candidates being able to change position at no cost is called into question

neoliberal economic policies and infant and child mortality simulation analysis of a chilean paradox abstract the paradox of deteriorating living standards for the poorest coexisting with declining infant and child mortality rates during the 1970s is explained by a simultaneous model where these rates and the birth rate are endogenous partial and general equilibrium results conflict some apparently satisfactory policy tools have counterproductive impacts action on small groups of selected policy variables is more effective than overall economic and social welfare expansion and policy effects differ according to social class the role of midwife visits average real earnings and cheap energy for poor urban households are emphasized perversely high unemployment also contributed to the actual mortality decline during the period

labor force participation and earnings determinants for women in the special conditions of developing countries abstract little systematic analysis exists regarding hypothesized special labor market conditions for women in developing countries this study explores such conditions in nicaragua major results are i small children affect participation less than in developed countries due to child care from extended families or while on informal sector jobs and the necessity for poor mothers to work ii schooling and experience have major roles affecting work sector and earnings but the primary school return is half that cited by the world bank iii other human capital variables particularly nutrition have some impact

cojumps and asset allocation in international equity markets abstract this paper examines the patterns of intraday cojumps between international equity markets as well as their impact on international asset holdings and portfolio diversification benefits using intraday index based data for exchange traded funds as proxies for international equity markets we document evidence of significant cojumps with the intensity increasing during the global financial crisis of 2008 2009 the application of the hawkes process also shows that jumps propagate from the us and other developed markets to emerging markets correlated jumps are found to reduce diversification benefits and foreign asset holdings in minimum risk portfolios whereas idiosyncratic jumps increase the diversification benefits of international equity portfolios in contrast the impact of higher order moments induced by idiosyncratic and systematic jumps on the optimal composition of international portfolios is not significant

a structural model of electoral accountability this paper proposes a structural approach to measuring the eects of electoral ac countability we estimate a political agency model with imperfect information in order to identify and quantify discipline and selection eects using data on u s governors for 1982 2012 we nd that the possibility of reelection provides a signi cant incentive for incumbents to exert eort we also nd a selection eect although it is weaker in terms of its eect on average governor performance according to our model the widely used two term regime improves voter welfare by 4 2 compared to a one term regime and nd that a three term regime may improve voter welfare even further

using repeat challengers to estimate the effect of campaign spending on election outcomes in the u s house previous studies of congressional spending have typically found a large positive effect of challenger spending but little evidence for effects of incumbent spending those studies however do not adequately control for inherent differences in vote getting ability across candidates high quality challengers are likely to receive a high fraction of the vote and have high campaign expenditures even if campaign spending has no impact on election outcomes to avoid that bias this paper examines elections in which the same two candidates face one another on more than one occasion differencing eliminates the influence of any fixed candidate or district attributes estimates of the effects of challenger spending are an order of magnitude below those of previous studies campaign spending has an extremely small impact on election outcomes regardless of who does the spending campaign spending limits appear socially desirable but public financing of campaigns does not

the simple analytics of contraceptive social marketing abstract contraceptive social marketing csm programs have been advocated for the dissemination of contraceptives in developing countries this paper considers csm programs from a simple economic perspective it begins with a review of the major economic models of private fertility determinants and the associated private demand for contraceptives and then adds private contraceptive supply to obtain market equilibrium next inefficiencies due to negative externalities of added children and due to imperfect information and distributional concerns are considered finally this framework is utilized to point to lacunae in our knowledge of csm programs and their impact and to suggest some promising areas for research

congressional committees and the political economy of federal outlays the literature on the organization of the united states congress has been dominated by distributive and informational theory one important source of disagreement between these two theories is their characterization of whether individual legislators can engage in pork barrel activities here we provide evidence which indicates that the pork barrel is alive and well in the contemporary united states congress we focus on whether members of power and constituency committees can direct disproportionate federal expenditures to their districts finding strong and systematic evidence of pork barrel activities by committee members provides empirical support for distributive theories of legislative organization

term limits and electoral competitiveness evidence from california s state legislative races california s legislative term limits have dramatically reduced campaign expenditures real expenditures during the three general elections after the term limits initiative passed in 1990 were lower than in even 1976 this drop has occurred at the same time that races have become closer contests and more candidates are running for office by any measure term limits have coincided with large changes in the level of political competition even before term limits have forcibly removed a single politician from office the changes are so large that more incumbents are being defeated races are closer more candidates are running and fewer single candidate races than occur at any other time during our sample period from 1976 to 1994

the price of pork the seniority trap in the u s house abstract using data on federal outlays and u s house elections i estimate the effect of the pork barrel on the quality of officeholders taking into account the fact that seniority creates a dynamic linkage across periods after estimating the parameters governing the influence of seniority on federal outlays and the parameters governing the distributions of candidate quality i conduct several policy experiments to uncover the size of the welfare loss created by the seniority system i find that the seniority system negatively impacts the quality of representatives but has little effect on the outcomes of elections furthermore the most commonly proposed solution to the distortion term limits may have a significant negative effect on the quality of sitting representatives instead of a quantity constraint term limits i propose a change in the relative price of seniority by way of a pigouvian tax on seniority such a policy achieves the first best outcome

the quality of schooling quantity alone is misleading although much research discusses the quantity of schooling as an effective impact on productivity and earnings most such research leaves out the idea of the quality of schooling which may cause biases in the estimated returns to schooling this paper consequently attempts to extend the standard mincerian approach to incorporate school quality as well as quantity it demonstrates how exclusion of quality in the standard procedure may cause biases in the estimated returns to years of schooling probably in the upward direction the paper explores the implications of this extension of the standard model for the case of young brazilian males it shows that the estimate of the private return to years of schooling using the preferred quality inclusive specification is only one half the estimate using the standard procedure indicating substantial upward bias in the standard estimates it further outlines a method for estimating a social return to quality and finds that it exceeds substantially the social return to quantity the paper then shows why this in turn suggests there may be an equity productivity trade off in schooling investments

the impact of federal spending on house election outcomes while it is widely believed by academics politicians and the popular press that incumbent members of congress are rewarded by the electorate for bringing federal dollars to their district the empirical evidence supporting that claim is extremely weak one explanation for the failure to uncover the expected relationship between federal spending and election outcomes is that incumbents who expect to have difficulty being reelected are likely to exert greater effort in obtaining federal outlays since it is generally impossible to adequately measure this effort the estimated impact of spending is biased downward because of an omitted variable bias we address this estimation problem using instrumental variables for each house district we use spending outside the district but inside the state containing the district as an instrument for spending in the district federal spending is affected by a large number of actors e g governors senators mayors and other house members in the state delegation

evolution of infant and child mortality in chile a model a model in which the birth rate and the infant and child mortality rates are jointly determined is used to explain the coexistence of declining infant and child mortality with increasing unemployment and falling living standards for at least part of the population the causes of the mortality decline are complex and include economic health care welfare urbanization and other aspects unemployment affected the birth rate and therefore the child mortality rate but the fall in infant mortality obeyed different factors such as midwife visits health expenditure and access to cheap energy policies require careful designing since often there is a trade off between infant and child mortality specially if the birth rate is high progress in one of these areas may prove counterproductive in the other if choices along the economy s phillips curve are possible solely on infant and child mortality grounds higher earnings should be preferred to lower unemployment

pork barrel politics and electoral returns at the local level does the targeted spending of public resources provide electoral benefits for incumbents despite the attention of scholars to that question the empirical results are mixed thus far the present paper supplies insights into the electoral benefits of discretionary funding on local elections i study the consequences of pork barrel politics in 7355 competitive mayoral elections in slovakia between 2006 and 2018 finding that more grants from the central government enhance the likelihood of mayors winning reelection the same advantage applies to mayors whose municipalities receive grants in local election years the effects of the number of grants obtained as well as the timing of their distribution are however moderated by municipal population more specifically a larger number of grants and resources obtained near the end of the mayoral term provides electoral benefits only to small town mayors but give no advantage to the mayors of larger urban areas

what you don t know can hurt you or at least mislead you family behaviors unobserved heterogeneities and the determinants and impacts of human resources over the life cycle what one does not know in the form of unobserved heterogeneity can mislead one in empirical estimates a simple model of intrahousehold allocations illustrates the possible importance of unobserved factors such as abilities in determining human resources and their impacts the author reviews over forty years of studies primarily from latin america and the caribbean but also from elsewhere to illustrate the substantial empirical importance of unobserved heterogeneity with regard to preferences and intrahousehold allocations schooling returns school quality early life nutrition and program evaluation

seniority in legislatures we construct a stochastic game model of a legislature with an endogenously determined seniority system we model the behavior of the legislators as well as their constituents in an infinitely repeated divide the dollar game each legislative session must make a decision on redistributional issues modeled as a divide the dollar game however each session begins with a vote in which the legislators decide by majority rule whether or not to impose on themselves a seniority system legislative decisions on the redistributional issues are made by the baron ferejohn rule an agenda setter is selected by a random recognition rule which in our model is a function of the seniority system selected the agenda setter makes a proposal on redistributional issues and the legislature then votes whether to accept or reject the agenda setters proposal if the legislature rejects the proposal another agenda setter is randomly selected and the process is repeated if the legislature accepts the proposal the legislative session ends and the voters in each legislative district vote whether to retain their legislator or throw it out of office the voters verdict determines the seniority structure of the next period legislature we find a stationary equilibrium to the game having the property that the legislature imposes on itself a non trivial seniority system and that legislators are always reelected