large scale deployment of renewables for electricity generation comparisons of resource assessments suggest that sufficient renewable energy resources are available to allow for large scale deployment of renewable energy technologies economic analysis identifies barriers to the adoption of renewable energy sources resulting from i market structure ii competition in an uneven playing field and iii various non marketplace barriers however even if these barriers are removed the problem of technology lock out remains the key policy response is strategic deployment coupled with increased r d support to accelerate the pace of improvement through market experience this paper suggests significant contributions from various technologies are possible but does not assess their optimal or maximal market share copyright 2005 oxford university press

environmental policy vs public pressure innovation and diffusion of alternative bleaching technologies in the pulp industry abstract in the late 1980s and early 1990s concern over dioxin in both paper products and wastewater led to the development of techniques that reduced the use of chlorine in the pulp industry both regulatory and consumer pressure motivated this change unlike previous studies we use patent data to examine the evolution of two competing bleaching technologies in five major paper producing countries both of which reduce the use of chlorine in the pulping process the use of patent data allows us to focus on the invention stage however adoption data are also presented and by the end of the 1990s nearly all pulp production in these countries used one of these technologies while previous studies emphasize the importance of regulation for inducing innovation here we find substantial innovation occurring before regulations were in place instead pressure from consumers and the public at large to reduce the chlorine content of paper drove invention prior to the introduction of environmental policies in any of the countries concerned

the impact of the german feed in tariff scheme on innovation evidence based on patent filings in renewable energy technologies abstract over the last two decades feed in tariffs have pushed the massive expansion of electricity from renewable energy sources in germany between 1991 and 1999 feed in tariffs were prescribed through the electricity feed in law the so called stromeinspeisungsgesetz seg at relatively moderate rates from 2000 onwards the seg was replaced by the renewable energy sources act the so called erneuerbare energien gesetz eeg with much higher subsidy rates the rise in subsidies to renewable power generation under the eeg came along with a substantial increase in electricity prices provoking an intense public debate on the benefits of renewable energy promotion in our regression analysis we assess one popular justification for feed in tariffs the demand side effect of induced innovation we find that the innovation impact of the german feed in tariff scheme over the last two decades supports the positive innovation hypothesis however the inducement effect of the feed in tariff scheme under the eeg is not significantly different from that of the seg given the drastic cost of the eeg we caution against the appraisal of the eeg feed in tariff scheme solely on the grounds of its impact on technological innovation

learning to believe in sunspots a number of authors have shown that competitive economies may possess sunspot equilibria that is rational expectations equilibria in which purely extrinsic uncertainty affects equilibrium prices and allocations 2 such results demonstrate that it does not require a lack of faith in the rationality of market participants to believe that competitive markets may be subject to purely speculative fluctuations driven solely by expectations 3 the mere existence of sunspot equilibria as solutions to a system of marketclearing conditions however might not be judged sufficient to indicate that competitive markets with rational participants could ever be subject to speculative instability the sunspot equilibria represent states of affairs in which agents act differently in the case of different realizations of the sunspot variable and it is rational for each agent to do so but it might be thought unlikely that the beliefs of all the participants in the market could ever come to be coordinated so as to bring about an equilibrium of that kind it is rational to believe that sunspots convey information about future states of affairs once the economy is in a sunspot equilibrium but why would rational agents ever begin to believe in such a thing so as to create the conditions under which the belief is rational in order to address such a question one must go beyond the mere statement of the conditions for equilibrium and discussion of what states of affairs satisfy them one must specify an explicit dynamic process according to which the beliefs of agents adjust when out of equilibrium any exercise of this kind is necessarily unsatisfactory as there is no univocal meaning for the postulate of rational behavior outside of an equilibrium it may well be the case that

does foreign environmental policy influence domestic innovation evidence from the wind industry this paper analyses the relative influence of domestic and foreign demand pull policies in wind power across oecd countries on the rate of innovation in this technology we use annual wind power generation to capture the stringency of the portfolio of demand pull policies in place e g guaranteed tariffs investment and production tax credits and patent data as an indicator of innovation activity we find that wind technology improvements respond positively to policies both home and abroad but the marginal effect of domestic policies is 12 times greater the influence of foreign polices is reduced by barriers to technology diffusion in particular lax intellectual property rights reducing such barriers therefore constitutes a powerful policy leverage for boosting environmental innovation globally

the possibility of informationally efficient markets abstract a rational expectations equilibrium with positive demand for financial information does exist under fully revealing asset price contrary to a wide held conjecture whereas a continuum of investors is inconsistent with fully revealing equilibrium finitely many investors with average portfolios demand information in equilibrium if they can adjust portfolio size in an additive signal return model more information diminishes the expected excess return of a risky asset so that investors who only have a choice of portfolio composition or whose asset endowments strongly differ from the average portfolio are worse off under fully revealing price information market equilibria both with and without information acquisition are pareto efficient

monetary and fiscal policy design at the zero lower bound evidence from the lab the global economic crisis of 2007 8 pushed many advanced economies into a liquidity trap a macroeconomic scenario characterised by nomial rates at the zero lower bound zlb low inflation and output below trend we design an experiment to generate empirical evidence on the effectiveness of policies aimed at managing expectations against liquidity traps in a controlled laboratory environment where expectations are elicied directly from human subjects our results suggest that monetary policy alone is not sufficient to insulate the economy form the risk of falling into a liquidity trap even if it preventively cuts the policy augmented with a fiscal switching rule succeeds in avoiding and escapiing liquidity trap episodes we also measure larger than unity fiscal mulipliers when monetary policy is constrained by the zlb experimental results in different treatments are well explained by adaptive learning

the induced innovation hypothesis and energy saving technological change we develop a methodology for testing hicks s induced innovation hypothesis by estimating a product characteristics model of energy using consumer durables augmenting the hypothesis to allow for the ine uence of government regulations for the products we explored the evidence suggests that i the rate of overall innovation was independent of energy prices and regulations ii the direction of innovation was responsive to energy price changes for some products but not for others iii energy price changes induced changes in the subset of technically feasible models that were offered for sale iv this responsiveness increased substantially during the period after energy efficiency product labeling was required and v nonetheless a sizable portion of efficiency improvements were autonomous

demand pull technology push and government led incentives for non incremental technical change abstract rising expectations about future demand for new technologies increase the incentives for investments in innovation by enlarging payoffs to successful innovations how well does this notion of demand pull apply to non incremental technological change when demand is largely attributable to actions by governments in this case inventors of the most important inventions did not respond positively to strong demand pull policies filing of highly cited patents declined precipitously just as demand for wind power created a multi billion dollar market three explanations for this apparent inconsistency with the demand pull hypothesis played a role 1 the rapid convergence on a single dominant design limited the market opportunity for non incremental technical improvements 2 even though the policies implemented were stringent enough to stimulate demand uncertainty in their longevity dampened the incentives for inventions that were likely to take several years to pay off and 3 alternative explanations such as declining r d funding and weakening presidential engagement on energy appear to have been important

monetary union and the assignment problem proposals for the creation of an independent central bank in a european monetary union do not always take into account the interactions between monetary and fiscal policy this analysis describes a system of two similar economies forming either a joint fiscal and monetary union or a simple monetary union policy authorities aim to achieve target values for inflation and the budget balance if the monetary and fiscal authorities pursue their targets independently of each other there is a risk that unstable interactions will be set up the results indicate a hazard of the separation of monetary and fiscal management

why and how to subsidise energy r d lessons from the collapse and recovery of electricity innovation in the uk the uk electricity sector liberalisation was a pioneer in the worldwide reform trend and its reform model and outcomes have been the subject of many studies however lesser known are the effects of privatisation market based reforms and incentive regulation of networks on research and development as well as patenting activities in the sector this paper updates our previous studies of this subject and discusses the recent developments in the innovative activities in the uk electricity sector we find that in recent years the initial absence of support policies and the subsequent decline in innovation efforts in the aftermath of the reform has resulted in efforts towards forming an energy technology and innovation policy although we already observe some positive outcomes from these efforts we discuss whether the balance of the innovation efforts are calibrated appropriately and whether the institutional framework can be further improved to promote long term progress

learning convergence and stability with multiple rational expectations equilibria abstract for a linear model with multiple rational expectations equilibria ree we discuss the set of possible ree solutions include i locally unique minimal state variable solutions taking an ar 1 form and ii continua of solutions which may depend on sunspots we analyze the convergence of econometric learning to the different ree there exist cases with more than one stable ar 1 solution it is also possible for a continuum of solutions to be stable but this property is not robust to overparametrization an application is developed and it is suggested that the exhibited phenomena may arise in applied macroeconomic models

government policy for a partially deregulated industry deregulate it fully alfred kahn was a major force behind regulatory reform that initially benefited air travelers and subsequently consumers in other industries by placing greater reliance on markets than on regulators to allocate resources kahn also believed that effective governance was important for deregulation s success in this paper i argue that such governance has not occurred in practice and that problems that persist in partially deregulated industries are more likely to be solved by full deregulation and if necessary privatization than by government intervention

local demand pull policy and energy innovation evidence from the solar photovoltaic market in china abstract market demand is an important driver for inducing innovation with many empirical studies supporting the demand induced innovation hypothesis critiques of such studies however emphasize that new empirical evidence that can address existing empirical challenges is needed furthermore existing literature disagrees about whether the locus of demand pull policy matters in this paper we use empirical evidence from the distributed solar photovoltaic pv market in china to address the following questions 1 is there evidence of demand induced innovation 2 does the effect of local demand pull policy differ from the effect of non local demand pull policy on demand induced innovation to address these questions we develop and analyze an original database of pv balance of system bos patents in the distributed pv market filed between 2005 and 2014 in china our results support the demand induced innovation hypothesis and suggest that only local demand significantly induces pv bos innovations in the distributed pv market in china the different effects of local demand and non local demand emphasize the importance of local markets and local policies lending some support to bottom up approaches to clean energy governance

innovation policy for directing technical change in the power sector this paper discusses policy instruments for redirecting technical change within the electricity sector to mitigate climate change first we unravel the mechanism behind directed technical change explaining why markets may underprovide innovations in expensive renewable technologies in comparison to innovations in energy efficient fossil fuel generators subsequently we characterize technical change in electricity generation technologies stressing the heterogeneity of knowledge spillovers both within and between clean electricity generation technologies we argue that there exists a rationale for a portfolio approach to innovation in the electricity sector i e optimal innovation policies are neither fully generic nor fully specific and they need to be adapted in response to new information learned by the government the existing innovation literature does not however provide a clear cut answer for designing such a policy we compare policy instruments and argue that public r d support to clean technologies either in the form of subsidies or prizes seems to be the prime candidate for implementing non generic innovation policy

james tobin an appreciation of his contribution to economics jim tobin who died on march 11 2002 at the age of 84 was one of giants of economics of the second half of the twentieth century and the greatest macroeconomist of his generation tobin s influence on macroeconomic theory is so pervasive so much part of our professional acquis that many younger economists often are not even aware that it is his ideas they are elaborating testing criticising refuting or re inventing in this appreciation i consider tobin s scholarly contributions made over a period of more than 50 years tobin received the 1981 nobel memorial prize for his analysis of financial markets and their relations to expenditure decisions employment production and prices i consider his contributions to mean variance portfolio demand and asset pricing theory especially the portfolio separation theorem pitfalls in financial model building portfolio balance and flow of funds models and the credit channel the life cycle model and social security econometric methodology including the tobit estimator and his pioneering work using both time series and cross sectional data to estimate food demand functions economic growth tobin s q the tobin tax the monetary and fiscal policy effectiveness debate first with milton friedman and then with the new classical macroeconomics and real business cycle schools and tobin s approach to methodological questions including microfoundations and aggregation

after airline deregulation and alfred e kahn among alfred e fred kahn s many accomplishments none is better remembered than his pivotal role in deregulation of the us airline industry kahn s commitment to marry core microeconomic principles with institutional analysis willingness as chairman of the civil aeronautics board to step outside the regulation as usual box and appealing wit made him the face of the airline deregulation act of 1978 one of the great microeconomic policy triumphs lessons drawn from kahn s work and the airline deregulation experience remain instructive for current academic research and regulatory policy design across broad sectors of the economy

effects of policies on patenting in wind power technologies abstract this paper explores the effects of policies and other factors driving innovation in wind power technologies in twelve oecd countries over more than two decades patent counts are used as an indicator for innovation the factors considered are generally derived from the systems of innovation literature count data econometric model were used for the estimations the suggest that patenting in wind power technology is positively related to public r d in wind power reflecting supply side policy the stock of wind capacity reflecting learning effects the number of patents per capita reflecting a country s innovative capacity and the share of green party voters reflecting the legitimacy of the technology in particular the presence of production or capacity targets for wind power or renewable energy sources and a stable policy environment reflecting policy process appear to be favourable for patenting wind power technologies these results are robust to various model specifications distributional assumptions and alternative classifications of wind power technologies in the patent search

why can t us airlines make money us airlines have lost nearly 60 billion 2009 in domestic markets since the 1978 deregulation most of it in the last decade the dismal financial record challenges the economics of deregulation i examine some of the common explanations among industry participants and researchers including high taxes and fuel costs weak demand and competition from lower cost airlines major drivers seem to be the demand downturn after 9 11 demand remains much weaker today than in 2000 and the large cost differential between legacy and low cost carriers which has persisted even as the price differential between them has greatly declined

money as a medium of exchange in an economy with artificially intelligent agents abstract we study the exchange economies of kiyotaki and wright 1989 in which agents must use a commodity or fiat money as a medium of exchange if trade is to occur our agents are artificially intelligent and are modeled as using classifier systems to make decisions in the assignment of credit within the classifier systems we introduce some innovations designed to study sequential decision problems in a multi agent environment for most economies that we have simulated trading and consumption patterns converge to a stationary nash equilibrium even if agents start with random rules in economies with multiple equilibria the only equilibrium that emerges in our simulations is the one in which goods with low storage costs play the role of medium of exchange i e the fundamental equilibrium of kiyotaki and wright

learning and price volatility in duopoly models of resource depletion the aim of this paper is to provide a theoretical model that can account for price fluctuations in depletable resource markets we do so by introducing learning into a hotelling style duopoly model of optimal resource depletion before the depletable resource becomes scarce the self confirming equilibrium of the model mirrors noncooperative rational expectations equilibrium in that supply is high and price is low although learning does induce occasional upward price spikes that are followed by a long period of falling price once the depletable resource becomes scarce the dynamics of the market change significantly with the self confirming equilibrium mirroring the cooperative rather than noncooperative rational expectations equilibrium supply is low and price is high price spikes still occur but against a background of increasing prices when scarcity is sufficient then the market is permanently in a self confirming equilibrium that is equivalent to cooperative rational expectations equilibrium

convergence of least squares learning in environments with hidden state variables and private information we study the convergence of recursive least squares learning schemes in economic environments in which there is private information the presence of private information leads to the presence of hidden state variables from the viewpoint of particular agents by applying theorems of ljung we extend some of our earlier results to characterize conditions under which a system governed by leastsquares learning will eventually converge to a rational expectations equilibrium we apply insights from the learning results to formulate and compute the equilibrium of a version of townsend s model

characterizing the policy mix and its impact on eco innovation a patent analysis of energy efficient technologies abstract this paper provides an empirical investigation of the role played by selected characteristics of the policy mix in inducing innovation in energy efficiency technologies an original dataset covering 23 oecd countries over the period 1990 2010 combines the full set of policies in the energy efficiency domain for the residential sector with data on patents applied over the same period in this specific technological sector the econometric results suggest that when the policy mix is characterised by a more balanced use in demand pull and technology push instruments its positive effects on eco innovation tend to be greater moreover a more comprehensive policy mix is shown to be able to enhance innovation activities for the generation of new energy efficient technologies however the simple addition of an indiscriminate number of simultaneous policy instruments may reduce policy mix effectiveness finally the empirical findings confirm previous evidence on the importance of policy spillover effects and suggest that policy similarity between countries may represent an important aspect to be accounted for in policy mix design

international patent protection 1960 2005 abstract this note provides an update to the index of patent protection published in this journal in 1997 the original paper presented the index for 1960 1990 for 110 countries the index has now been updated to 2005 and extended to 122 countries the adoption of stronger patent laws and the composition of patent rights vary across countries by level of economic development

self organization and the persistence of noise in financial markets abstract a dynamic model of financial markets with learning is demonstrated to produce a self organized system that displays critical behavior the price contains private information that traders learn to extract and employ to forecast future value since the price reflects the beliefs of the traders the learning process is self referencing as the market learns to correctly extract information from the price the market deemphasizes private information despite the convergence of the model towards the parameters producing efficiency pricing deviations remain constant due to the increased sensitivity of the price to small errors in information extraction produced by the model s own convergence

on aggregation of information in competitive markets the dynamic case abstract this article examines in the spirit of hellwig 1980 how a dynamic competitive security market aggregates and communicates information between various market participants at every instant it employs a continuous time economy consisting of a large number of heterogeneous agents who are endowed with noisy private signals about the risky asset payoff of differing precision it yields a stationary rational expectations equilibrium in which at every instant the agents use information contained in the market prices without rendering their private information redundant it shows that the market price reflects only that part of private information which is common to many signals and thus extends hellwig s single period results to a multi period model

learning hypothesis testing and rational expectations equilibrium abstract foster and young 2003 provide a model of learning by hypothesis testing that spends almost all of the time approximating nash equilibria of a repeated game here i extend this learning model to a macroeconomic setting where agents decisions are informed by hypotheses they hold regarding the economy they periodically test these hypotheses against observed data and replace them if they fail under certain conditions agents who learn in this way spend a large fraction of the time approximating rational expectations equilibria

some evolutionary foundations for price level rigidity this paper shows that price rigidity evolves in an economy populated by imperfectly rational agents who experiment with alternative rules of thumb in the model firms must set their prices in face of aggregate demand shocks their payoff depends on the level of aggregate demand as well as on their own price and their neighbor s price the latter assumption captures local interactions despite the fact that the rational expectations equilibrium ree is characterized by a simple pricing rule that firms can easily adopt the economy does not converge to the ree for all parameter values when the volatility of monetary innovations is low and interactions among firms are high the aggregate price level exhibits rigidity in that it does not fully react to contemporaneous aggregate demand shocks we discuss the role of the nature of experimentation and of path dependence driven by interactions in explaining these results

induced innovation and energy prices this paper uses u s patent data from 1970 to 1994 to study the impact of energy prices on energy efficient innovations theories of technological change have focused both on demand side factors which spur innovative activity by increasing the value of new innovations and supply side factors such as scientific advancements that make new innovations possible data on demand side factors are easily obtained but data on supply side factors that influence innovation are not readily available this paper uses patent citations as a measure of the usefulness of the existing base of scientific knowledge citations to previous patents are used to construct productivity estimates which measure the usefulness of the existing stock of knowledge to inventors in a given energy field for any given year these estimates are then combined with data on demand side factors to estimate a model of induced innovation in energy technologies the results indicate that both energy prices and the supply of knowledge have strongly significant positive effects on innovation the paper concludes with a discussion of the implication of this work for environmental policy

do policy mix characteristics matter for low carbon innovation a survey based exploration of renewable power generation technologies in germany abstract policy mixes may play a crucial role in redirecting and accelerating innovation towards low carbon solutions thus addressing a key societal challenge towards this end some argue that the characteristics of such policy mixes matter greatly yet with little empirical evidence backing up such claims in this paper we explore this link between policy mix characteristics and low carbon innovation using the research case of the transition of the german electricity system towards renewable energy our empirical insights are based on an innovation survey administered to german manufacturers of renewable power generation technologies which builds on the community innovation survey for our purposes we adjusted the survey to better capture companies perceptions of policy mixes employing a bivariate tobit model we find evidence that companies perceptions regarding the consistency and credibility of the policy mix are positively associated with their innovation expenditures for renewable energies and this positive link intensifies when considering the mutual interdependence of these policy mix characteristics in contrast neither the comprehensiveness of the instrument mix nor the coherence of policy processes were found to be related to innovation expenditures overall these findings suggest that future research on low carbon and eco innovation should pay greater attention to the characteristics of policy mixes rather than focusing on policy instruments only finally our findings indicate a need to consider how policy may be measured in innovation surveys to generate better informed policy advice regarding the greening of innovation

inventor networks in renewable energies the influence of the policy mix in germany technological change and gains in efficiency of renewable power generation technologies are to a large extent driven by governmental support various policy instruments that can broadly be categorized as technology push demand pull or systemic constitute part of the policy mix for renewable energies our goal is to gain insights into the influence of this policy mix on the intensity and organization of inventive activities for wind power and photovoltaics in germany since the 1980s we examine the effect of different instruments on the size and structure of co inventor networks based on patent data our results indicate notable differences between the technologies the network size for wind power is driven by technology push and systemic instruments while in photovoltaics demand pull is decisive for network growth by and large the instruments complement each other and form a consistent mix of policy instruments the structure of the networks is driven by demand pull for both technologies systemic instruments increase interaction especially in the wind power network and are complementary to demand pull in fostering collaboration

inferring changes in expectation behavior over time an application of nonlinear time varying parameters estimation this article develops a new method for inferring the structure of agents expectations from macroeconomic time series two versions of a somewhat stylized macroeconomic model are examined expectations of money growth are a central driving variable assumed to be formed as a time varying weighted average of alternative money growth models the weights are estimated as time varying parameters jointly with the structural parameters for the model using a nonlinear time varying parameters method developed for the article the results allow us to infer how agents may have revised their beliefs about competing money growth models including federal open market committee announcements over the sample

expected life time utility and hedging demands in a partially observable economy this paper analyzes the expected life time utility and the hedging demands in an exchange only representative agent general equilibrium under incomplete information we derive an expression for the investor s expected life time utility and analyze his hedging demands for intertemporal changes in the stochastic unobservable growth of the endowment process and the changing quality of information regarding these changes the hedging demands consist of two components which could work in opposite directions so that a conservative consumer may end up having positive hedging demands our results are qualitatively different from those prevailing under constant growth cf brennan m j 1998 the role of learning in dynamic portfolio decisions european finance review 1 295 306 ziegler a 2003 incomplete information and heterogeneous beliefs in continuous time finance springer berlin chapter 2

fuzzy inductive reasoning expectation formation and the behavior of security prices abstract this paper extends the santa fe artificial stock market model sfasm studied by lebaron arthur and palmer 1999 journal of economic dynamics and control 23 1487 1516 in two important directions first some might question whether it is reasonable to assume that traders are capable of handling a large number of rules each with numerous conditions as is assumed in the sfasm we demonstrate that similar results can be obtained even after severely limiting the reasoning process we show this by allowing agents the ability to compress information into a few fuzzy notions which they can in turn process and analyze with fuzzy logic second lebaron et al have reported that the kurtosis of their simulated stock returns is too small as compared to real data we demonstrate that with a minor modification to how traders go about deciding which of their prediction rules to rely on when making demand decisions the model can in fact produce return kurtosis that is comparable to that of actual returns data

demand pull instruments and the development of wind power in europe a counterfactual analysis renewable energy technologies are called to play a crucial role in the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions since most of these technologies did not yet reach grid parity public policies have been implemented in order to foster their deployment the approach that has been privileged in europe is the demand pull approach that aims at creating a demand for these new technologies and at stimulating their diffusion this paper examines the effect of demand pull policies on the diffusion of onshore wind power technology in six european countries denmark france germany italy portugal and spain in a first step a micro founded model of diffusion is calibrated in order to replicate the observed diffusion of wind power in these six countries in a second step a counterfactual analysis is conducted by investigating several scenarios by taking into account the complex self sustained dynamics of diffusion and the learning spillovers that operate in the wind power sector we can derive several insights about demand pull policies first the impact of a demand pull policy on the diffusion of wind power is determined by the stage at which it comes to support it the effect seems to be stronger at the beginning of the diffusion second international spillovers do operate in the wind power sector these international spillovers however are not strong enough to foster the diffusion of wind power in a country having no demand pull support we can derive from these two statements that a strategy consisting in not implementing any demand pull policy with the expectation that international spillovers will reduce the cost of wind power and foster the diffusion of the technology that then shall become competitive is not a good option for a country targeting a high share of wind power in its energy mix

does host market regulation induce cross border environmental innovation this paper evaluates the effect of host country environmental policy stringency on the offshoring of environmental patents for 2000 top world r d performers it is shown that a more stringent environmental regulation triggers both the extensive and intensive margin of patent offshoring in the field of environmental technologies results are robust to various different specifications alternative definitions of innovation offshoring and of regulation restrictions and to the consideration of possible endogeneity of regulation it is suggested inter alia that r d subsidies and non market based regulatory measures are more important than market based instruments as drivers of cross border environmental innovation length 26 pages

renewable energy and politics a systematic review and new evidence abstract this paper reviews the literature in the intersection of renewable energies and politics adopting a multidisciplinary social sciences perspective we begin by analyzing the recent literature dealing with renewable energies and politics illustrating the analysis with bibliometric data the search protocol revealed 853 contributions dated from 1998 then we focus on the 186 contributions approached from a social sciences perspective establishing a taxonomy to classify the contributions into the main issues covered we identify contributions dealing with governance with public acceptance with markets and prices and with political or policy determinants of renewable energies in an empirical application we show that more democratic countries tend to invest more in renewable energies taking into account other determinants e g income energy dependence pollution emissions of this investment

determinants of environmental innovation in us manufacturing industries abstract this paper provides new evidence on the determinants of environmental innovation we employ panel data models to study how environmental innovation by us manufacturing industries responded to changes in pollution abatement expenditures and regulatory enforcement during the period 1983 through 1992 we find that 1 environmental innovation as measured by the number of successful environmental patent applications granted to the industry responded to increases in pollution abatement expenditures however 2 increased monitoring and enforcement activities related to existing regulations did not provide any additional incentive to innovate we also find some empirical evidence that environmental innovation is more likely to occur in industries that are internationally competitive

learnability of an equilibrium with private information abstract this paper investigates the learnability of an equilibrium with private information agents of each type have their own private information about an exogenous variable and conduct adaptive learning with a heterogeneously misspecified perceived laws of motion plm that includes only this variable the paper shows that the existence of private information has a nonnegative impact on the learnability of the equilibrium that is the condition for learnability is unaffected or relaxed by heterogeneity and or misspecification in plms caused by private information in a new keynesian model with private information about fundamental shocks the learnability of the equilibrium is ensured by the taylor principle of monetary policy the paper also confirms that these results hold true not only in the presence of private information but also in a variety of informational structures

learning and the yield curve two central implications of expectations hypothesis under rational expectations are inconsistent with yield curve data i future expected long yields fall instead of rising when yield spread rises ii long yields are excessively volatile relative to short yields i propose an optimization framework in which boundedly rational agents use adaptive learning to form expectations the belief structure rationalizes pattern of yields observed in the data so that the first puzzle does not arise with subjective expectations intertemporal income and substitution effects are amplified relative to rational expectations the second puzzle is partly accounted for by extra volatility due to parameter uncertainty

environmental policies and risk finance in the green sector cross country evidence abstract this paper provides a detailed description of venture capital investment in the green sector across 29 countries over the period 2005 2010 and identifies the role that policies might play in explaining observed cross country differences the analysis is based on a deal level database of businesses seeking financing combined with indicators of renewable policies and government r d expenditures the econometric analysis relates the number of deals and their volumes in a country to deployment and supply policies using count data and limited dependent variable tobit models the results suggest that both supply side policies and environmental deployment policies designed with a long term perspective of creating a market for environmental technologies are associated with higher levels of venture capital relative to more short term fiscal policies when focusing on policies related to renewable energy generation the results confirm the positive association of generous feed in tariffs fits with venture capital investment however in the solar sector excessively generous fits tend to discourage investment perhaps reflecting a lack of credibility over the longer term thus both sets of results point to long term policy stability sustainability and credibility as important policy features to ensure venture capital backing of innovative and risky ventures in a country s green sector

innovation and the international diffusion of environmentally responsive technology abstract new evidence is presented on environmental innovation and diffusion over the 1970s and 1980s at a global level a substantial amount of innovations occurred in the united states japan and germany the share of environmental patents in all patents varied between 0 6 and 3 and as such was higher than the corresponding share of pollution abatement expenditure in gdp japanese environmental innovation rates were consistently high certain plausible connections between environmental regulation and innovation also emerge across these three countries and over time innovation responded to pollution abatement expenditure an indicator of the severity of environmental regulations environmental patenting rates in developing countries were also high reaching 2 in many years in brazil developing country innovators obtained a non trivial number of patents most of which appear geared towards adapting imported technologies to local conditions however domestic innovation was only one path to new technologies imports of disembodied environmental technologies foreign patents registered in developing countries were substantial foreign patents were typically important or generic patents evidence also suggests that such patents protected intellectual property in equipment exported developing countries especially in east asia often chose to obtain technologies embodied in pollution abatement equipment

expectational stability and the multiple equilibria problem in linear rational expectations models linear models involving expectations of future endogenous variables generally have multiple rational expectations equilibria this paper investigates the stability of solutions in the disequilibrium sense of whether given a small deviation of expectations functions from some rational expectations equilibrium the system returns to that solution under a natural revision rule weak and strong local stability are distinguished stability conditions are calculated for a simple general linear model and applied to two macroeconomic examples in some cases there is a unique stable equilibrium in other cases a continuum of equilibria forms a weakly but not strongly stable class

from fossil fuels to renewables the role of electricity storage abstract electricity storage represents a solution to curb carbon emissions by enabling more use of intermittent renewable energy our goal is to empirically analyze the determinants of innovation in electricity storage and its role in fostering technological innovations in renewable and conventional electricity generation using a global firm level data set of electricity patents from 1963 to 2011 we find that better electricity storage promotes innovation not only in renewable energy but also in conventional technologies specifically our estimates show that an additional storage patent increases the probability to apply for patents in renewable energy and efficiency improving fossil fuel technologies two years from now by 1 09 and 0 65 respectively this implies that improved electricity storage technologies can boost the energy efficiency of conventional fossil fuel fired power plants as well as increase the use of renewable electricity thus the ability of electricity storage to curb carbon emissions depends on the competitiveness of renewable energy against conventional electricity generation and conventional power generation mix as storage increases fossil fuel efficiency and reduces ramping costs

expectational diversity in monetary economies abstract we investigate an overlapping generations monetary economy in which expectations depend upon backward looking predictors of the future price level we use discrete choice theory to model how agents select a predictor based on its past forecast error letting the number of available predictors tend to infinity we obtain the large type limit of the system taking the large type limit dramatically reduces the number of free parameters while maintaining the expectational diversity which we argue is necessary for constructing plausible learning based models the model s dynamics are strongly influenced by the intensity of choice which measures how sensitive an agent s predictor choice is to differences in forecast errors across predictors when the intensity of choice is low the monetary steady state is stable as the intensity of choice increases and if certain parametric restrictions are met the system undergoes a hopf bifurcation in which case we document the existence of highly irregular equilibrium price paths

the expectational stability of underemployment equilibria i introduction one of the most important recent developments in macroeconomic theory has been the demonstration of how external economies of scale may generate multiple perfect foresight equilibria a positive externality such as that studied by diamond 1982 may generate two saddle path equilibria one converging to a high employment steady state and the other converging to an inferior low employment steady state for given initial conditions there are therefore two equilibrium choices of employment in howitt and mcafee s 1988 model which has both a positive and a negative externality any one of a continuum of employment choices will satisfy optimality conditions and converge to the low employment steady state thus the literature on externalities demonstrates that there may exist a stable or saddle path stable pareto inferior low employment equilibrium in a perfect foresight model with market clearing and flexible prices 1 an intriguing feature of these models is the possibility that economic fluctuations might be driven by waves of optimism or pessimism that move the economy from one equilibrium to another along with the possibility of multiple equilibria there is however a problem of indeterminacy how do we say which equilibrium will be chosen the idea that waves of optimism or pessimism move the economy is provocative and intuitively appealing but a more explicit account of how individuals come to focus on a particular equilibrium a selection criterion is needed one criterion that has been used successfully to limit the multiplicity of equilibria in rational expectations and perfect foresight models is the stability of an adaptive learning procedure 2 under adaptive learning the agents in the model learn about the economy in much the same way as an econometrician they have a perfect foresight equilibrium model of the economy and they use the available macroeconomic data to infer the value of that model s parameters their parameter estimates determine their forecasts and these forecasts determine their choice of labor inputs if a given steady state equilibrium is unstable under a broad class of plausible learning rules it is unlikely that the economy will converge to that equilibrium even if it is stable under perfect foresight if a steady state is stable under learning then we are more confident that it may be observed in an actual economy in this paper i apply the concept of expectational stability to howitt and mcafee s 1988 model of aggregate employment in the presence of externalities 3 expectational stability is a simple and therefore highly tractable iterative learning scheme that has been used by evans 1985 and by bray 1982 proposition 4 to study the convergence of learning to rational expectations in addition to being tractable the procedure is general indeed the local stability conditions of the procedure used in this paper are the same as the conditions for local stability of least squares learning as derived by marcet and sargent 1989a 1989b these same conditions are necessary for the stability of a broad class of learning algorithms including least squares estimation kalman filtering and iterative gauss newton procedures as is shown in ljung and soderstrum 1983 i study learning in howitt and mcafee s 1988 model because it is also highly general it incorporates both thick market positive and congestion negative externalities it allows for multiple perfect foresight steady states that are alternately stable and saddle path stable 4 further i show that the widely cited model of diamond 1981 1982 is a special case of the howitt and mcafee model in this paper i show that the learning rule eliminates the problem of indeterminacy it will however also rule out those steady states that are unambiguously pareto inferior stable low employment steady states may exist but they cannot be ranked

optimized taylor rules for disinflation when agents are learning abstract when private agents learn a new policy rule an optimal simple taylor rule for disinflation differs substantially from that under full information the central bank can reduce target inflation without much difficulty but adjusting reaction coefficients on lagged inflation and output is more costly temporarily explosive dynamics emerge when there is substantial disagreement between perceived and actual feedback parameters making the transition highly volatile the bank copes by choosing reaction coefficients close to the private sector s prior mode thereby sacrificing long term performance in exchange for achieving lower transitional volatility