competition and corporate performance are people right to think that competition improves corporate performance my investigations indicate first that there are some theoretical reasons for believing this hypothesis to be correct but they are not overwhelming furthermore the existing empirical evidence on this question is weak however the results reported here based on an analysis of around 670 u k companies do provide some support for this view most important i present evidence that competition as measured by increased numbers of competitors or by lower levels of rents is associated with a significantly higher rate of total factor productivity growth

dodging the grabbing hand the determinants of unofficial activity in 69 countries across 69 countries higher tax rates are associated with less unofficial activity as a percent of gdp but corruption is associated with more unofficial activity entrepreneurs go underground not to avoid official taxes but to reduce the burden of bureaucracy and corruption dodging the grabbing hand in this way reduces tax revenues as a percent of both official and total gdp as a result corrupt governments become small governments and only relatively uncorrupt governments can sustain high tax rates 2000 elsevier science s a all rights reserved

assessment of the impact of avian influenza related regulatory policies on poultry meat trade and welfare a heckman type gravity model is used to estimate the trade impact of avian influenza related quarantine ex post measures an accompanying spatial partial equilibrium simulation model is developed to simulate related welfare changes the simulation model considers spread and transmission risk according to the disease status of both importers and exporters the econometric results show that the principle of regionalisation is preferred to import trade bans for uncooked meat the simulation results verify the negative welfare impact of currently implemented quarantine policies and indicate that significant trade diversion effects occur according to the disease status of countries a trade ban is a costly measure to address the infection risk resulting from the spread of the avian influenza virus

product market competition and analyst forecasting activity international evidence abstract in this study we investigate how product market competition affects the extent of analyst following and the properties of analyst forecasts using a broad sample of firms from 37 countries over the 1990 2008 period we find that firms that operate in more concentrated industries and with stronger pricing power are associated with greater analyst following higher forecast accuracy and lower forecast dispersion moreover the effect of product market power on analyst following and forecast properties is more pronounced in countries with less effective competition laws and higher entry costs these findings suggest that high industry concentration and a dominant market position enhance the earnings predictability of firms and lower their information uncertainty and that country level institutions that promote competition effectively constrain the power in product markets

an information interpretation of financial analyst superiority in forecasting earnings the results of recent empirical tests comparing the accuracy of financial analysts forecasts faf of firm earnings to the accuracy of predictions from univariate time series ts forecasting models are consistent with faf forecast superiority see brown et al 1987a and their references the source of this apparent superiority however is not well understood an issue related to earnings forecast superiority is that of determining the most accurate surrogate for the earnings expectations of capital market participants researchers have compared the association between earnings surprise and stock returns across alternative surrogates for earnings expectations and have argued that the best surrogate is generated from the earnings forecast model whose errors exhibit the highest

earnings skewness and analyst forecast bias abstract we argue that if analysts objective is to provide the most accurate forecast by minimizing the mean absolute forecast error then the optimal forecast is the median instead of the mean earnings forecast bias is observed when the median is different from the mean in a skewed earnings distribution thus part of the observed analyst forecast bias could be a result of analysts efforts to improve forecast accuracy when the earnings distribution is skewed we find that earnings skewness is significantly related to analyst forecast bias we also provide evidence that the market adjusts for part of the skewness induced bias

why do firms hide bribes and unofficial activity after communism abstract our survey of private manufacturing firms finds the size of hidden unofficial activity to be much larger in russia and ukraine than in poland slovakia and romania a comparison of cross country averages shows that managers in russia and ukraine face higher effective tax rates worse bureaucratic corruption greater incidence of mafia protection and have less faith in the court system our firm level regressions for the three eastern european countries find that bureaucratic corruption is significantly associated with hiding output

analyst characteristics timing of forecast revisions and analyst forecasting ability abstract we first examine whether analysts with certain characteristics that prior research has identified are related to superior forecasting ability systematically time their forecast revisions later in the fiscal quarter we then examine whether this superior ability persists after controlling for the timing advantage by using relative forecast error a measure that largely eliminates the timing advantage of recent forecasts using a sample of quarterly earnings forecast revisions over the 20 year period from 1990 to 2009 we find that analysts with more firm specific and general experience and more accurate prior period forecasts analysts employed by larger brokerage firms and analysts who follow fewer industries and companies tend to revise forecasts later in the quarter we also find that analyst characteristics that are positively correlated with revision timing are negatively related to relative forecast errors these results are consistent with analyst characteristics being useful proxies for analyst forecasting ability and analysts with greater ability revising forecasts later in the quarter

the impact of strategic interaction on earnings expectations associated with corporate product strategies abstract we examine how strategic interaction in an industry influences the earnings expectations of financial analysts with regard to new product strategies we find that following announcement of new products analysts revise earnings forecasts upward more for announcing firms competing in low strategic interaction industries than for firms competing in high strategic interaction industries for value enhancing value reducing product strategies earnings forecast revisions are more favorable for rivals competing under a high low degree of strategic interaction than for rivals competing under a low high degree of strategic interaction overall empirical evidence indicates that the nature of strategic competition within the industry is important in assessing the market expectations of earnings for new product announcers and their rivals

can corruption foster regulatory compliance the legal and economic literatures overwhelmingly support the notion that regulatory compliance is always less in the presence of corruption this paper departs from those literatures and shows that whenever public officials are paid fixed wages an increase in corruption may actually foster compliance the conditions that make this possible are laid down in a theoretical model empirical evidence that corroborates the theoretical findings is provided using firm level data for 26 transition economies

rent seeking under a weak institutional environment this paper investigates the role of the institutional environment on economic performance when the state intervenes to correct market failure results demonstrate that in the presence of weak institutions rent seeking plays a crucial role for achieving second best resources allocation

the combination of gravity and welfare approaches for evaluating nontariff measures this article explores the link between gravity and welfare frameworks for measuring the impact of nontariff measures first an analytical approach suggests how to combine a gravity equation with a partial equilibrium model to determine the welfare impact of nontariff measures second an empirical application focuses on the effects of a standard that caps antibiotic residues in crustaceans in the united states the european union canada and japan while the econometric estimation of the gravity equation reports a negative impact on imports welfare evaluations show that in most cases a stricter standard leads to an increase in both domestic and international welfare

corruption in tax administration abstract we extend the game theoretic model of graetz reinganum and wilde 1986 to allow for corruption in tax administration in the presence of corruption audit rates are generally higher than in its absence in fact in the presence of corruption it is possible to sustain equilibria in which all returns are audited moreover when some auditors accept bribes it is possible for increases in the fine rate or the tax rate to reduce expected government revenue

product market pricing power industry concentration and analysts earnings forecasts this is the first study to establish a link between product market power and analysts earnings forecast accuracy and bias relating two different dimensions of market power to earnings forecastability we document that a a firm s relative pricing power and b its industry concentration are strong positive determinants of analysts earnings forecast accuracy we find that forecasting earnings of higher market power firms is less complex due to their ability to withstand cost shocks as well as greater informational efficiency enjoyed by such firms further forecast optimism increases with weakening product market pricing power and with lower industry concentration the knowledge derived from this study will hopefully improve the accuracy of equity valuation and thereby engender better buy side stock selections and sell side recommendations by analysts our analysis also suggests that brokerage firms compensating analysts based on forecast accuracy need to adjust for the differential in the information complexity of different industries

firm networking and bribery in china assessing some potential negative consequences of firm openness economic openness both in terms of increased international trade exposure and enhanced inter firm networking has been a key element of china s economic emergence since the implementation of market reforms and the opening up policy over 30 years ago unfortunately these changes have also coincided with the increased incidence of bribery and corruption both in general and in the specific context of china research on the relationship between a firm s tendency toward openness and its propensity to engage in bribery is scarce this study seeks to fill this gap based on empirical evidence provided by a large sample of chinese firms the findings of the study reveal that firms increased networking and openness tend to occur contemporaneously with greater bribery and corruption we suggest that this may be due to the misuse of guanxi based networks that coincide with the presence of firms open network strategies heightened by the potential loss of resource and capability heterogeneity and hence reduced competitive advantages in the context of openness we further find that firms paying bribes do so as an attempt to overcome unnecessary bureaucratic processes and ineffective institutional support that might tend to hinder their development

foot and mouth disease and the mexican cattle industry the objective of this article is to analyze the domestic and international effects of a hypothetical foot and mouth disease fmd outbreak in the mexican cattle industry a discrete time dynamic optimization model of the mexican cattle sector is specified and linked to domestic and international markets economic consequences of fmd outbreaks are simulated over time and under different scenarios specific findings and general policy recommendations are provided the study reports a range of outbreaks from localized to large scale and suggests that changes in economic surplus due to fmd range from a positive net gain of 0 89 to 1 6 billion to a net loss of about 67 billion depending on the specific mitigation strategy and outbreak scenario

idiosyncratic return volatility cash flows and product market competition over the past 40 years the volatility of the average stock return has drastically outpaced total market volatility thus idiosyncratic return volatility has dramatically increased we estimate this increase to be 6 per year consistent with an efficient market this result is mirrored by an increase in the idiosyncratic volatility of fundamental cash flows we argue that these findings are attributable to the more intense economy wide competition various cross sectional and time series tests support this idea economic competitiveness facilitates reinterpretation of the results from the cross country r2 literature as well as the us idiosyncratic risk literature jel g12 g14

an axiomatic approach to the measurement of corruption theory and applications in this paper we demonstrate that the axiomatic measurement approach developed in the poverty and inequality literature can be usefully applied to the measurement of corruption we develop a conceptual framework for organizing corruption data and discuss several objective aggregate corruption measures consistent with axiomatic requirements we then provide an empirical application of the methodology and estimate the respective corruption measures for a sample of over 25 countries during the year of 2000 our empirical analysis reveals significant discrepancies between the country rankings generated by these measures and those provided by the corruption perception index cpi from transparency international to our knowledge this paper represents a first analysis of corruption measurement using an axiomatic framework

tax reform and welfare measurement do we need demand system estimation the exact measurement of the welfare costs of tax and price reform requires a detailed knowledge of individual preferences typically first order approximations of welfare costs are calculated avoiding detailed knowledge of substitution effects the authors derive second order approximations which unlike first order approximations require knowledge of the distribution of substitution elasticities this paper asks to what extent simple approximations can be used to measure the welfare costs of tax reform and evaluates the magnitude of the biases for a plausible size tax reform in the authors empirical examples first order approximations display systematic biases second order approximations always work well

some implications of the unofficial economy bureaucratic corruption relationship in transition countries abstract this paper shows why some countries are trapped in an equilibrium with high unofficial economic activity and corruption while other countries are not the potential for different outcomes follows directly from the complementary nature of unofficial economy and corruption activity

biased forecasts or biased earnings the role of reported earnings in explaining apparent bias and over underreaction in analysts earnings forecasts the extensive literature that investigates whether analysts earnings forecasts are biased and or inefficient has produced conflicting evidence and no definitive answers to either question this paper shows how two relatively small but statistically influential asymmetries in the tail and the middle of distributions of analysts forecast errors can exaggerate or obscure evidence consistent with analyst bias and inefficiency leading to inconsistent inferences we identify an empirical link between firms recognition of unexpected accruals and the presence of the two asymmetries in distributions of forecast errors that suggests that firm reporting choices play an important role in determining analysts forecast errors r 2003 elsevier b v all rights reserved

flexible and semiflexible consumer demands with quadratic engel curves in this paper we introduce three flexible consumer demand systems in which expenditures on goods are quadratic functions of income we view these alternatives as to the demand systems used heretofore in the empirical modeling of rank three demands namely those in which expenditure shares are quadratic functions of the logarithm of income curvature conditions required by theory can be imposed locally during the estimation for each and a semiflexible version can be estimated for illustrative purposes we estimate various forms of two of the systems using canadian data on seven categories of goods for the period 1947 to 1995

business culture and tax evasion why corruption and the unofficial economy can persist abstract this paper shows that business and tax inspection culture can create multiple equilibria in bad equilibria high cheating and corruption increases in penalties or auditing can have perverse impacts and increase cheating the source of the multiple equilibria is the externalities created by business and tax inspection cultures as tax evasion and corruption become more common they become more acceptable and their cost is lowered a third externality that between firms and inspectors is the source of the perverse effect more cheating by firms is good for bribe taking inspectors and more bribe taking inspectors are good for cheating firms

import restrictions in the presence of a health risk an illustration using fmd we present a simple model linking infection risk from imports to a tariff the risk causes the exporter of the infected product to face a higher tariff than would otherwise be the case a numerical example is developed for u s beef imports from nations with foot and mouth disease fmd the additional tariffs are sensitive to the specification of risk and the expected magnitude of loss due to an fmd outbreak for a low risk of importing fmd the tariffs levied against the exporter of fmd infected beef are not prohibitive but become so as the risk or expected output loss rises

rationality and analysts forecast bias this paper proposes and tests a quadratic loos utility function for modeling corporate earnings forecasting where financial analysts trade off bias to improve management access and forecast accuracy optimal forecasts with minimum expected error are optimistically biased and exhibit predictable cross sectional variation related to analyst and company characteristics empirical evidence from individual analyst forecasts is consistent with the model s predictions these results suggest that positive and predictable bias may be a rational property of optimal earnings forecasts prior studies using classical notions of unbiasedness may have prematurely dismissed analysts forecasts as being irrational or inaccurate

taxes and bribery the role of wage incentives this paper presents a simple model to evaluate alternative payment schemes for tax inspectors in the presence of corruption we consider problems of both moral hazard which arises because taking bribes cannot be observed without costly monitoring and adverse selection since not all potential tax inspectors can be identified as being honest or dishonest we identify three wage regimes first one could pay the same wage that a tax inspector could earn elsewhere his reservation wage second one could pay a wage which solves the moral hazard problem i e deters bribery this we call an efficiency wage by analogy with recent models examined i n macro economics third the government could pay a wage below the reservation wage at which only the dishonest become tax inspectors the capitulation wage we make precise the conditions under which each yields the greatest amount o f tax revenues net o f administrative costs many countries in the developing world are undergoing structural adjustment programmes which require fundamental fiscal changes outside agencies advise restoration of budget balance a task which involves expenditure cuts and tax increases the treatment of public employee pay scales often poses a particular dilemma i n this process wages and salaries are a significant component of government expenditures and one important question concerns the extent to which wages rather than employment cuts should be used to save money there is sometimes a reluctance to advocate wage cuts stemming in part from a feeling that this might impair the performance of the public sector hence tanzi 1990 argues that a policy of wage cutting is likely to increase the inefficiency of public sector employees especially at a time when the public sector is expected to play a larger role in restructuring the economy p 16 in the context of tax collection the issue is particularly pressing given the need to raise more tax revenues a reduction in efficiency in this branch of the government i s likely t o mean that fewer returns are processed and when individuals living standards are squeezed their incentive to accept bribes in lieu o f collecting taxes i s increased o n this count i t i s even sometimes suggested that wages of tax inspectors should be increased to aid the effort to the comments of henry bienen john hey and two anonymous referees have been helpful in revising this paper the authors are also grateful t o the john m olin program for the study o f economic organization and public policy at princeton university and the pew charitable trusts for financial support mclaren also acknowledges support from the international finance section of princeton university none of the above should be implicated in any way see for example goode 1984 chapter 1 3 and gould and amaro reyes 1983

a temporal analysis of earnings surprises profits versus losses i show that median earnings surprise has shifted rightward from small negative miss analyst estimates by a small amount to zero meet analyst estimates exactly to small positive beat analyst estimates by a small amount during the 16 years 1984 to 1999 i show that a rightward temporal shift in median surprise from negative to positive describes earnings but neither profits nor losses median profit surprise shifts within the positive quadrant from zero to one cent per share median loss surprise shifts within the negative quadrant from extreme negative about 33 cents per share to zero i show that the median surprise for profits exceeds that for losses in every year i document significant positive temporal trends in both meet and beat analyst estimates for both profits and losses but i find a greater frequency of profits that either meet or beat analyst estimates in every year i find a significant positive temporal trend in positive profits that are a little bit of good news and a significant negative temporal trend in managers who report losses that are an extreme amount of bad news my results are robust to the four internal validity threats i consider namely temporal changes in 1 analyst forecast accuracy 2 the mix of earnings of one sign preceded by earnings of another sign four quarters ago 3 the timeliness of the most recent analyst forecast and 4 the i b e s definition of actual earnings i find that managers of growth firms are relatively more likely than managers of value firms to report good news profits i show that when they do report positive profit surprises managers of growth firms are more likely to report a little bit of good news in every year

what do we learn about consumer demand patterns from micro data the aim of this paper is to assess the importance of using micro level data in the econometric analysis of consumer demand to do this we utilize a time series of repeated cross sections covering some 4 000 households in each of 15 years employing a number of different aggregation procedures we conclude that aggregate data alone are unlikely to produce reliable estimates of structural price and income coefficients however once certain aggregation factors as well as trend and seasonal components are included an aggregate model is not necessarily outperformed across all demand equations in terms of forecasting ability jel d12 c52 c31 the purpose of this paper is to develop a complete consumer demand system based on a time series of individual household data and to use it to measure the biases introduced into the study of consumer de mand behavior when aggregate data are used in place of the appropriate microeco nomic data we assess the suitability of ag gregate data through the impact on income and price elasticities and by evaluating the ability of both micro and aggregate based models to forecast aggregate consumer de mand the biases introduced by the use of aggregate data depend upon the way that household characteristics interact with in come and price effects and on departures of demand systems from linearity we explore the structure of microeconomic demand sys tems and the role of household characteris tics in the behavior of consumer demand both for the light this may shed on the pattern of future demands and for the im plications this behavior has for issues of aggregation consumer demand patterns typically found in micro data sets vary considerably across households with different household characteristics and with different levels of income we model this variability by making intercept and slope parameters in the budget share equations of our demand sys tem depend on household characteristics and by allowing for nonlinear total log expenditure terms in fact in theory consistent demand systems it is total ex penditure rather than disposable income that is allocated across goods we find that this general framework leads to a well specified data coherent demand system which is a quadratic extension of the popu lar almost ideal model of angus s deaton and john muellbauer 1980 the micro level estimates are shown to be sensitive to the treatment of endogeneity of total expen diture and to the specification of interaction terms with household characteristics in ad dition this specification is also shown to possess many attractive features for the evaluation of aggregate models