current account dynamics and expected future budget deficits some international evidence abstract this paper addresses the question of whether current account deficits are linked to expected future budget deficits we use an optimizing general equilibrium model to show the theoretical relationship between the two deficits we then estimate the econometric equation based on the forward looking expectations model for oecd countries thus extending earlier research based on more conventional analysis from the empirical investigation evidence is obtained that strongly supports the view that current account deficits have been associated with expected future budget deficits during the 1970 1997 period

effects of budgetary policies in open economies the role of intertemporal consumption substitution an economy s optimal response to temporary and anticipated future changes in government spending is examined in the context of a two country model which highlights the role of the elasticity of int

fiscal policies in the world economy this paper uses a two country general equilibrium model of the world economy in order to analyze the effects of budget deficits and government spending on world rates of interest consumption and international indebtedness it demonstrates the difference between the effects of fiscal expenditures and tax cuts as well as between the effects of current policies and expected future policies it is shown that the qualitative effects of fiscal policies depend on whether the country introducing the policies runs a surplus or a deficit in its current account following the positive analysis of the short run and the steady state effects the paper concludes with a normative analysis of the welfare implications of budget deficits

disaggregate energy consumption employment and income in turkey the purpose of this paper is to contribute to literature on energy consumption and economic growth relationship by examining how much of the variance in national income growth can be explained by the growth of different sources of energy consumption and employment in turkey we use the recently developed generalized forecast error variance decomposition technique of koop et al j econom 74 1996 119 and pesaran and shin econ lett 58 1998 17 to determine the information content of the growth rate of energy consumption waste seems to have the largest initial impact followed by oil however over a 3 year horizon lignite appears to explain the largest forecast error variance of gdp the total energy consumption explains 21 of forecast error variance of gdp energy consumption appears to be almost as important as employment in turkey therefore policy makers may be interested in identifying the energy dependencies of economic growth in allocating the energy investment budget

deficits and intergenerational welfare in open economies this paper deals with public debt in open economies extending diamond s overlapping generations model to a small open economy as well as an international equilibrium of two large economies it focuses on the intergenerational welfare redistributions caused by an increase in public debt triggered by a temporary government budget deficit and shows how these redistributions differ in open and closed economies the interplay between the deficits in the government budget and the current account is also analyzed it is shown how a single period with a government deficit can be followed by a sequence of periods with a deficit in the current account

energy consumption and gdp causality relationship in g 7 countries and emerging markets abstract the causality relationship between energy consumption and income is a well studied topic in energy economics this paper studies the time series properties of energy consumption and gdp and reexamines the causality relationship between the two series in the top 10 emerging markets excluding china due to lack of data and g 7 countries we discover bi directional causality in argentina causality running from gdp to energy consumption in italy and korea and from energy consumption to gdp in turkey france germany and japan hence energy conservation may harm economic growth in the last four countries

fiscal deficits and relative prices in a growing world economy abstract this paper studies the transmission of fiscal disturbances between countries and the effect of those disturbances on worldwide capital intensity in a context of growth the model developed to address these issues allows for the production of both nontradable and relatively capital intensive tradable goods a central finding is that factor markets can be a major channel for the communication of fiscal policy shocks to world interest rates to private saving decisions and ultimately to global asset supplies and their distribution among countries particular predictions of the model illustrate how changes in public debt ratios and shifts in government spending patterns affect resource allocation and the welfare of various generations both at home and abroad

energy sufficiency aspirations of india and the role of renewable resources scenarios for future abstract the indian energy scenario has been suffering perennially from problems like energy deficit energy inequity and threats to energy security conventional power resources like coal oil and gas large hydro and nuclear have inherent shortcomings especially in the indian context which make them fall short of fulfilling the energy sufficiency aspirations of india the present paper assesses the validity of the promise offered by renewable energy technologies in this context the existing trends of cumulative installed capacity growth of solar wind small hydro and biomass power in india have been fitted to simple logistic models to forecast the future growth trajectory similarly long term electricity demand projections have been made using logistic models two renewable growth scenarios and three demand growth scenarios have been combined to generate six combined electricity demand renewable growth scenarios the analysis done in the present paper shows that in the most desirable electricity demand renewable growth scenario the percentage share of renewable electricity in the overall electricity mix of india rises steadily from the current 6 to around 43 44 by 2031 32 and then decays gradually to saturate at around 26 27 by 2063 2065 whereas in the most likely scenario it rises steadily to around 29 by 2030 31 and then decays gradually to settle at around 21 by 2064 65 this leaves policymakers with a lot of thinking to do regarding the viability of other alternatives in long term power planning and underscores the need for path breaking r d in the sector

capital goods imports the real exchange rate and the current account conventional aggregate models of open economies typically rule out trade in capital goods but capital goods account for a major share of the world trade in 1990 they represented more than 40 percent of u s merchandise exports and more than 30 percent of its imports in the same year capital goods imports represented an average of roughly 30 of total imports for 82 industrial and developing countries and almost 9 percent of their gdp this report shows that the presence of imported capital goods greatly changes the short and long run effects of macoreconomic policies and external shocks on key macroeconomic variables using a rational expectations aggregate model with intertemporally optimizing agents and with trade in both consumption and capital goods it finds that the long run equilibrium of the economy displays a negative relationship between the real exchange rate and real output that is a real appreciation is associated with an increase in long run output and the capital stock with investment subject to adjustment costs the response to unanticipated permanent disturbances involves a changing real exchange rate and a non zero current account the author analyzes the macroeconomic consequences of changes in fiscal policy and of transfers of wealth from abroad he show that both have well defined long run effects on the capital stock and real output fiscal expansion in particular may have a long run crowding in effect on investment by constrast the impact of disturbances on the current account is ambiguous the author shows that it depends critically on the degree of intertemporal substitutability in both consumption and investment with the latter measured by the magnitude of investment adjustment costs

payments for ecosystem services rife with problems and potential for transformation towards sustainability abstract payments for ecosystem services pes programs are one prominent strategy to address economic externalities of resource extraction and commodity production improving both social and ecological outcomes but do pes and related incentive programs achieve that lofty goal along with considerable enthusiasm pes has faced a wide range of substantial critiques in this paper we characterize seven major classes of concerns associated with common pes designs and use these as inspiration to consider potential avenues for improvements in pes outcomes and uptake the problems include 1 new externalities 2 misplacement of rights and responsibilities 3 crowding out existing motivations 4 efficiency equity tradeoffs 5 monitoring costs 6 limited applicability and 7 top down prescription alienating agency as currently practiced many pes programs are thus of limited benefit and even potentially detrimental to sustainability from this dire conclusion we highlight several innovations that might be combined and extended in a novel approach to pes that may address all seven problems recognizing that pes necessarily articulate and even normalize values our proposed approach entails designing these institutions intentionally to articulate rights and responsibilities conducive to sustainability those we might collectively seek to entrench problems remain and new ones may arise but the proposed approach may offer a way to reimagine pes as a major social and economic tool for enabling sustainable relationships with nature conserving and restoring ecosystems and their benefits for people now and in the future

borrow and adjust fiscal policy and sectoral adjustment in an open economy should the government run fiscal deficits in response to an adverse external shock that warrants transfer of resources from production of nontraded to traded goodsq this article considers normative fiscal policy implications of sectoral adjustment costs in a two sector model with overlapping generations fiscal deficits benefit present generations by depleting foreign assets and slowing down the adjustment process we show that despite no nominal rigidities temporary fiscal deficits increase social welfare if adjustment costs prevent immediate sectoral reallocation of inputs if there are no adjustment costs the case for fiscal deficits vanishes copyright 2003 by the economics department of the university of pennsylvania and osaka university institute of social and economic research association

can financial incentives change farmers motivations an agrarian system approach to development pathways at the nicaraguan agricultural frontier abstract this article offers a conceptual methodological approach to assess how new institutional frameworks such as pes payments for ecosystem services interact with motivations for land use change at the individual and collective level increasing empirical evidence suggests that the effects of payments on inducing long term behavioural change can vary substantially depending on how they are integrated in territorial dynamics we show how individual motivation is the result of collective societal pathways that generate particular opportunities and constraints as well as guiding ideas and habits that work within these pathways through an illustrative case study at the agricultural frontier in nicaragua we show how an agrarian system approach offers a more nuanced understanding of the dynamic interactions on the ground and allows us to better connect farmers individual motivations to collective development pathways in that territory our case study also demonstrates how a local pes intervention is unlikely to lastingly alter the production system logic of farmers or stimulate long term pro environmental behaviour unless accompanied by other types of policies

the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy linking an econometric model with theory in this paper the authors outline a method termed theoretical reconstruction which allows the system properties of any econometric macromodel to be related to a simpler theoretical model first elements of the econometric model which involve significant additional theoretical complexity compared to the theory model are removed this process continues until the properties of the deconstructed econometric model match those of the reference theory second the econometric model is gradually reconstructed noting at each point how each element of additional complexity influences the model properties the technique is illustrated using fiscal policy changes and the u k econometric model compact coauthors are julia darby jonathan ireland and ottavio ricchi

the real exchange rate the capital stock and fiscal policy abstract this paper studies the joint determination of aggregate supply the real exchange rate and the current account in response to changes in government spending in a model where there is no uncertainty in the aggregate but where individuals are uncertain about their lives duration international capital mobility fixes the steady state capital stock and aggregate supply in a small country whereas in a large country the steady state capital stock is endogenous an increase in government spending is more likely to generate a real exchange rate depreciation in a small country since the loss of wealth associated with cumulated current account deficits does not increase rest of the world spending in the case of a large country current account deficits are wealth transfers to the rest of the world and increase foreign spending thus the normal long run response is an increase in the relative price of domestic output

the international transmission and effects of fiscal policies in recent years the world economy has been subject to large and unsyncronized changes in fiscal policies high and volatile real rates of tnterest large fluctuations in real exchange rates and significant variations in private sector spending this paper reviews some of the key facts characterizing the effects of fiscal policies during the first half of the 1980s and provides a simple analytical framework suitable for the interpretation of these facts the analytical framework builds on a two country model of the world economy which is applied to the analysis of the transmission and effects of various changes in the time profile of taxes and of government spending generally the predictions of the model concerning the relation among the intercountry patterns of consumption long and short term real rates of interest real exchange rates and fiscal policies are consistent with the stylized facts this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

a laboratory study of auctions for reducing non point source pollution abstract non point source pollution such as nutrient runoff to waterways from agricultural production is an environmental problem that typically involves asymmetric information land use changes to reduce pollution incur opportunity costs that are privately known to landholders but these changes provide environmental benefits that may be more accurately estimated by regulators this paper reports a testbed laboratory experiment in which landholder sellers in sealed offer auctions compete to obtain part of a fixed budget allocated by the regulator to subsidize abatement in one treatment the regulator reveals to landholders the environmental benefits estimated for their projects and in another treatment the regulator conceals the potential projects environmental quality the results show that sellers offers misrepresent their costs more for high quality projects when quality is revealed so total abatement is lower and seller profits are higher when landholders know their projects environmental benefits this suggests that concealing this information may improve regulatory efficiency

stock markets adjustment costs and the international transmission of shocks this paper studies the role of stock markets and adjustment costs in the international transmission of supply shocks it uses an analytically tractable two country one good model where intertemporal optimizing behaviour of infinitely lived agents endogenously determines the rate of capital accumulation and the current account it is shown that the presence of adjustment costs and stock markets provide new insights concerning the channels through which supply shocks are internationally transmitted

population ageing and pension reform in a small open economy with non traded goods in this paper we study the implications of population ageing in an economy with a sizeable non traded goods sector to this effect a highly stylized micro founded macro model is constructed in which the age structure of the population plays a non trivial role the model distinguishes separate birth and death probabilities thus allowing for net population change allows for age dependent labour productivity thus mimicing life cycle saving and includes a rudimentary pension system thus allowing for intergenerational redistribution the model is used to analytically study demographic and pension shocks

a comparison of national saving rates in the uk us and italy abstract we develop the approach of gokhale kotlikoff and sabelhaus 1996 understanding the postwar decline in us saving a cohort analysis brookings papers on economic activity 0 315 390 based on the life cycle model of savings to decompose the differences in the national saving rates between the uk us and italy our work suggests that the us saving rate is lower principally because americans on average retire later in contrast the italian saving rate is higher predominantly because italians are credit constrained particularly when young we also found that demography and the different tax and benefit systems are able to explain little of the cross sectional differences in saving rates the study accounts for the possible importance of inter generational private transfers in determining saving rates

international transmission of monetary and fiscal policy abstract this paper analyzes the effects of monetary and fiscal expansion on the multiple economies in a dornbusch model and a yaari blanchard model unlike previous literature the paper incorporates union and explicitly solves the n country models the effects of monetary and fiscal expansion outside the union are quite similar to the previous results based on the two country models however the effects of expansion inside the union induce a different dynamic path after the policy changes furthermore the number of union members changes the fluctuations of various endogenous variables

drivers for energy consumption a comparative analysis of china and india abstract china and india accounted for two thirds of the world s rise in energy use between 2000 and 2012 this paper aimed to calculate the p population a affluence t technology effects of energy use in china and india the world s two most populous and largest developing countries to this end a combination of the ipat method and the logarithmic mean divisia index technique and annual time series data on population energy consumption and gross domestic product during 1970 2012 are used in china a 12 53 fold growth of energy use emissions from 1970 to 2012 is driven by a combination of rapid growth in individual income and slow growth in population with offset by technological advancement since 1980 the accelerating rise in energy use since 2000 is a result of accelerating growth rates in individual income and a reversal of earlier declining in energy intensity technological advancement unlike china the long term rise in energy use exceeded the long term rise in individual income in india in addition a strong trend of decline in energy intensity has not yet occurred in india thus a 7 39 folds growth of indian energy use for 1970 2012 was a result of relatively rapid increase in population and relatively slow increase in income without effective offset by technological advancement it suggests that market oriented economic and energy reforms need to send the correct price signal to promote energy efficient technologies thus improving energy efficiency which is the key to a sustainable energy future in china and india

real exchange rate effects of fiscal expansion under trade restrictions we develop a small open economy trade model where either a tariff or a quota or a voluntary export restraint ver exists and where one exported one imported one non traded and one public good are produced within this context we examine the effects of fiscal expansion on welfare and the real exchange rate rer among other things it is demonstrated that when the direct social profitability effect of the public good is positive and the public good is a net complement to the non traded good fiscal expansion causes an appreciation of the rer under free trade and under a tariff when the public good is also a net complement to the imported good the paper identifies additional conditions required to ensure the appreciation of the rer due to fiscal expansion under an import quota or a ver les effets de 1 expansion fiscale sur les taux de change reels quand il y a des restrictions au commerce international les auteurs developpent un modele de commerce international d une petite economie ouverte oiu existe soit un tarif douanier soit un contingentement soit une restriction volontaire des exportations dans ce modele un bien import6 un bien exporte un bien qui n est pas transige internationalement et un bien public sont produits

public benefits private benefits and policy mechanism choice for land use change for environmental benefits the choice of policy mechanisms for encouraging environmentally beneficial land use change should depend on the relative levels of private or internal net benefits and public or external net benefits a map of recommended policy mechanisms is developed depending on the relative levels of these variables positive incentives negative incentives and extension need to be targeted carefully to appropriate projects where private net benefits are closer to zero and or public net benefits are more extremely positive or negative technology development is suggested where private net costs outweigh public net benefits no action is recommended for many potential projects

forecasting production of fossil fuel sources in turkey using a comparative regression and arima model this study aims at forecasting the most possible curve for domestic fossil fuel production of turkey to help policy makers to develop policy implications for rapidly growing dependency problem on imported fossil fuels the fossil fuel dependency problem is international in scope and context and turkey is a typical example for emerging energy markets of the developing world we developed a decision support system for forecasting fossil fuel production by applying a regression arima and sarima method to the historical data from 1950 to 2003 in a comparative manner the method integrates each model by using some decision parameters related to goodness of fit and confidence interval behavior of the curve and reserves different forecasting models are proposed for different fossil fuel types the best result is obtained for oil since the reserve classifications used it is much better defined them for the others our findings show that the fossil fuel production peak has already been reached indicating the total fossil fuel production of the country will diminish and theoretically will end in 2038 however production is expected to end in 2019 for hard coal in 2024 for natural gas in 2029 for oil and 2031 for asphaltite the gap between the fossil fuel consumption and production is growing enormously and it reaches in 2030 to approximately twice of what it is in 2000

a laboratory comparison of uniform and discriminative price auctions for reducing non point source pollution auctions allow regulators to identify land management changes with substantial environmental benefit and low opportunity cost this paper reports an experiment in which seller subjects compete in sealed offer auctions to obtain part of a fixed budget allocated by the experimenter regulator to subsidize pollution abatement one treatment employs uniform price auction rules whereas another treatment employs discriminative price auction rules we find that most offers in the uniform price auction are within 2 of cost whereas most offers in the discriminative price auction are at least 8 greater than cost nevertheless the discriminativeprice auction has superior overall market performance

a garch forecasting model to predict day ahead electricity prices price forecasting is becoming increasingly relevant to producers and consumers in the new competitive electric power markets both for spot markets and long term contracts price forecasts are necessary to develop bidding strategies or negotiation skills in order to maximize profits this paper provides an approach to predict next day electricity prices based on the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic garch methodology that is already being used to analyze time series data in general a detailed explanation of garch models is presented and empirical results from the mainland spain and california deregulated electricity markets are discussed

socio ecological explanations for crowding out effects from economic field experiments in southern africa abstract economic and psychological literature mentions three conditions under which the crowding out effect of pro social behaviour is likely to occur and to crowd out citizens moral obligations to behave co operatively i use a framed field experiment on joint extraction from a common pool resource cpr where the crowding out effect has already been reported before in combination with the trust game carried out in farming communities of namibia and south africa to replicate these conditions the research design and the cross cultural setting enable to explicitly control for these effects the results of the experiments support that the crowding out effect depends on the nature of the external intervention controlling vs supportive external intervention the degree of participants self determination high vs low self determination in the group a society s norms of trust and reciprocity high vs low trust within the society the results imply that outside regulations aiming to conserve natural resources risk worsening the situation when neglecting democratic legitimization as well as local community norms

do farmers value the environment evidence from a conservation reserve program auction the paper uses data from one conservation reserve program crp auction to elicit farmers attitudes toward the environment by analyzing their bids the crp pays farmers to remove chosen plots of land from agricultural production and put them to a conservation use an interesting aspect of this auction is that winners are determined by a combination of low bids and environmental scores of individual plots using decision theoretic approach to model this auction we show that farmers condition their bids on the strength of their environmental scores and that they value environmental benefits especially those that increase future soil productivity of their land

capital controls and fiscal policy in the world economy an intertemporal utility maximization framework is employed to model a world economy with capital controls the effects of fiscal policy in such an environment are examined several results emerge concerning the international transmission of fiscal policy under capital controls and the nature of comovements in macro economic aggregates such as output employment consumption and investment some of the paper s other results concern the implications of capital controls for ricardian equivalence the role of financing decisions in the international transmission process under capital controls and the effect of capital controls on the magnitude of fiscal induced fluctuations throughout the world economy contr6les des mouvements de capitaux et politique fiscale dans l conomie mondiale les auteurs utilisent une approche par la maximisation intertemporelle de l utilite pour modeliser une economie mondiale dans laquelle des controles sur les mouvements de capitaux existent ils examinent les effets de la politique fiscale dans un tel contexte on tire de ces analyses plusieurs resultats quant i la transmission internationale des effets de la politique fiscale et quant aux mouvements lies de certains agregats economiques comme les niveaux de production d emploi de consommation et d investissement certains autres resultats de cette analyse ont trait aux implications des controles des mouvements de capitaux sur l1 quivalence ricardienne au role des decisions de financement dans le processus international de transmission quand il y a controle des mouvements de capitaux et aux effets des controles sur les mouvements de capitaux sur la magnitude des fluctuations induites a travers l economie mondiale par la politique fiscale helpful comments from two anonymous referees are gratefully acknowledged discussion in workshops held at ucla duke university iowa state university queen s university vanderbilt university vpi and the university of western ontario has also been useful canadian journal of economics revue canadienine d economique xviii no 4 november novembre 1985 printed in canada imprime au canada 0008 4085 85 743 65 1 50 canadian economics association this content downloaded from 207 46 13 129 on mon 27 jun 2016 05 25 03 utc all use subject to http about jstor org terms 744 jeremy greenwood and kent p kimbrough

oil prices and current account a structural analysis for the turkish economy abstract although there has been an increasing number of studies about the effects of oil prices on the macroeconomic performances the literature on the interaction between oil prices and current account is limited especially for oil importing developing countries this paper analyzes the impact of oil prices on the current account balances for the turkish economy using a structural vector autoregression model our model allows us to identify the net effect of oil prices on current account balances after controlling for other factors such as output gap and exchange rate misalignment the results show that the response of current account ratio to oil price shock increases gradually up to the first three months and then starts to decrease which indicates a significant effect of oil price shocks in the short run moreover when the obtained structural shocks are employed in a simple regression analysis the parameter regarding the oil price shocks is found to be negative and statistically significant the final section discusses the policy implications of the results

the value of environment across efficiency quantiles a conditional regression quantiles analysis of rangelands beef production in north eastern australia in agricultural systems the value of environmental inputs can be measured using the production function approach whereby the marginal contributions of factors are associated with a shadow value under perfect competition and rationality assumptions however empirical studies show that inefficiency in production is common indicating that the rationality assumption is not met furthermore substantial evidence exists to suggest that the contributions of environmental inputs in particular may be differentiated across the efficiency distribution this means that the frontier technology may not be an appropriate reflection of the technology in use by inefficient enterprises this article presents the use of conditional regression quantiles to consider how the value of environmental inputs measured by their contributions to production vary across efficiency quantiles we employed a case study of rangelands beef production in australia to consider how environmental health differentially contributes to production values across efficiency quantiles our approach generates detailed insights into the nature of environmentally sourced technical inefficiency and suggests that conditional quantile regression approaches are ideal for consideration of issues wherein substantial heterogeneity exists limiting the information content of conditional mean based analyses

india s dependence on foreign oil will exceed 90 around 2025 the forecasting results based on two hybridized nmgm arima and nmgm bp models abstract few study has been conducted to forecast india s dependence on foreign oil although india is the world s third largest oil consumer and exporter making it a key player in the oil market this work is aimed to accurately forecast india s dependence on foreign oil to develop better forecasting techniques this study used linear auto regressive integrated moving average arima and nonlinear back propagation bp to correct nonlinear metabolic grey model nmgm forecasting residuals in three steps i integrating the metabolic idea with a nonlinear grey model to develop nmgm ii integrating the proposed nmgm with arima to develop nmgm arima and iii integrating the proposed nmgm with bp to develop nmgm bp to further improve forecasting accuracy this work forecasted the india s dependence on foreign oil from two perspectives i direct forecasting the change of ratio of imports oil to total oil consumption in india ii indirect forecasting i e the difference between the forecasted oil consumption and production was divided by the forecasted oil production the proposed nmgm arima and nmgm bp were used to fit the india s dependence on foreign oil for 1995 2017 and forecast the data for 2018 2030 the mean relative error of the proposed forecasting models was around 1 5 which could produce a convincing forecasting results our forecasting results show that india s dependence on foreign oil will reach 90 around 2025 which poses serious challenge to indian oil security and the global oil market

real interest rates home goods and optimal external borrowing the paper investigates the optimal time path of consumption and external borrowing in the dependent economy model the small country faces given world prices and a given world real interest rate the presence of a home goods sector implies that the relevant real interest rate appropriate to consumption decisions depends on the rate of change of the real price of home goods the paper shows how transitory disturbances in output or in the world real interest rate affect the time profile of consumption and the trade balance in particular it is shown that the presence of a home goods sector dampens the consumption effects of changes in the world interest rate

arima forecasting of primary energy demand by fuel in turkey abstract forecasting of energy demand in emerging markets is one of the most important policy tools used by the decision makers all over the world in turkey most of the early studies used include various forms of econometric modeling however since the estimated economic and demographic parameters usually deviate from the realizations time series forecasting appears to give better results in this study we used the autoregressive integrated moving average arima and seasonal arima sarima methods to estimate the future primary energy demand of turkey from 2005 to 2020 the arima forecasting of the total primary energy demand appears to be more reliable than the summation of the individual forecasts the results have shown that the average annual growth rates of individual energy sources and total primary energy will decrease in all cases except wood and animal plant remains which will have negative growth rates the decrease in the rate of energy demand may be interpreted that the energy intensity peak will be achieved in the coming decades another interpretation is that any decrease in energy demand will slow down the economic growth during the forecasted period rates of changes and reserves in the fossil fuels indicate that inter fuel substitution should be made leading to a best mix of the country s energy system based on our findings we proposed some policy recommendations

structural break unit root and the causality between energy consumption and gdp in turkey abstract this paper tries to investigate a series of unit root and causality tests to detect causality between the gdp and energy consumption in turkey employing hsiao s version of granger causality method for the 1950 2000 period the conventional unit root tests indicate the series are i 1 whereas the endogenous break unit root tests proposed by zivot and andrews zivot e and andrews d w k 1992 further evidence on the great crash the oil price shock and the unit root hypothesis journal of business and economics statistics 10 251 270 and perron perron p 1997 further evidence on breaking trend functions in macroeconomic variables journal of econometrics 80 355 385 reveal that the series are trend stationary with a structural break therefore it is inappropriate to take the first difference of the data to achieve stationarity the main conclusion of this study is that there is no evidence of causality between energy consumption and gdp in turkey based on the detrended data

do conservation auctions crowd out voluntary environmentally friendly activities research has shown that introducing external incentives to encourage pro social behavior such as monetary rewards or regulation may crowd out voluntary pro social activity this has implications for the appropriate design and use of such incentive based programs this study investigates motivational crowding out in the case of conservation auctions a relatively new tool that provides monetary incentives to encourage landowners to adopt environmentally friendly management practices our experimental evidence shows that the introduction and subsequent removal of a conservation auction significantly reduces voluntary provision of environmental quality via monetary donations to an environmental charity compared to a control group that does not experience an auction we also attempt to examine some economic theories of behavior that explain this effect according to either individual motivations or social interactions and our initial exploration finds that crowding out occurs regardless of whether or not participants have opportunities to interact with one another during the experiment

public sector deficits international capital movements and the domestic economy the medium term is the message this paper reviews conventional wisdom and explores recent developments concerning the implications of large and persistent public sector deficits in an open economy consideration is given first to the mundell fleming model and its analysis of fiscal policy in an open economy this leads to an extensive discussion of the nature of international capital mobility and its importance for the mundell fleming results the burden of the public debt in an open economy is then argued to be an important issue even in a world of perfect international capital mobility the final substantive section addresses the related problems of co ordination consistency and credibility of government policies it is concluded that a desirable fiscal plan must strike a balance between long run and short run issues les deficits du secteur public les mouvements internationaux de capital et leconomie domestique le moyen terme voila le message ce memoire presente une revue de ce que suggere la sagesse conventionnelle en plus d explorer certains developpements recents des debats sur les implications de deficits importants et persistants du secteur public dans une economie ouverte une attention particuliere est accordee au developpement et a certaines extensions du modele de mundell fleming l auteur analyse ensuite la nature de la mobilite intertiationale du capital et son importance dans l analyse de la politique fiscale on etudie aussi le fardeau de la dette publique dans une economie ouverte et les dernieres sections traitent des problemes connexes de coordination de coherence et de credibilite des politiques gouvemementales l auteur en arrive a la conclusion qu un plan fiscale desirable doit trouver un equilibre entre les considerations de courte et de longue periodes the 1985 harold innis memorial lecture presented at the canadian economics association annual meetings in montreal 29 may 1985 it is a pleasure to acknowledge many useful discussions on the issues addressed in this lecture with david backus robin boadway michael devereux richard lipsey and especially neil bruce john helliwell s advice and encouragement is also very much appreciated michael parkin made a number of very useful editorial suggestions canadian journal of economics revue canadienne d economique xviii no 4 november novembre 1985 printed in canada imprime au canada 0008 4085 85 723 42 1 50 canadian economics association this content downloaded from 207 46 13 76 on wed 24 aug 2016 06 07 46 utc all use subject to http about jstor org terms 724 douglas d purvis

current account effects of a temporary change in government expenditure a perfect foresight model of intertemporal utility maximization is used to analyze the current account effects of a temporary increase in government spending the relationship between the marginal utility of private consumption and the supply of public goods in the economy is shown to play a crucial role in determining the qualitative nature of the optimal current account response the link between the timing of the policy change and the magnitude of the current account effect is also examined

capital controls and international trade finance abstract this paper studies the effects of prohibiting individuals from holding foreign assets but of allowing firms to trade in foreign assets only up to what is needed to finance export and import activities although firms can perform arbitrage between domestic and foreign financial markets the distortions in asset markets are not fully arbitraged away but instead are transmitted to domestic goods markets the dynamics and steady state responses to a variety of shocks are crucially affected by capital controls even in the presence of capital controls the volatility of domestic interest rates can be substantial

channels of international policy transmission abstract four channels of international budgetary and monetary policy transmission are analysed within the context of nominal wage sluggishness the first is based on capital gains on holdings of foreign assets spill over effects arising through the second and third channels depend on whether home and foreign goods are gross substitutes or gross complements and on whether the elasticity of intertemporal substitution is less or greater than one the final channel assumes finite lifetimes and no bequest motive it departs from debt neutrality in order to give a non trivial role to wealth effects and current account dynamics

pareto optimal redistribution and private charity abstract when private charity exists and is motivated by utility interdependence a non pareto optimal outcome the free rider problem typically arises nevertheless incremental fiscal redistribution cannot achieve a paretian welfare improvement so long as private charity continues at positive levels donors respond to incremental fiscal redistribution by reducing their voluntary contributions by exactly a dollar for every dollar transferred in this way no net transfer is achieved unless incremental fiscal redistribution is pursued to the point where private contributions have been driven to zero alternatively a net transfer may be achieved by fiscal measures which affect donors marginal incentives to donate