granger causality and policy effectiveness it is generally recognized that if a set of monetary and fiscal policy variables granger cause1 real economic variables this does not imply that alternative deterministic rules for determining the values of these policy instruments will alter the joint density function of the real variables 2 it has however also been asserted that letting x denote a suitably restricted vector of real economic aggregates g a list of monetary and fiscal policy variables and e the mathematical expectation operator

optimal strategic oil stockpiling and import tariffs the case of china abstract as two of the most important instruments for dealing with the issues of energy supply security strategic petroleum reserves sprs and oil import tariffs have been proven effective in developed countries while china is currently building up its strategic oil reserves to ensure energy security it is of great importance to investigate china s optimal oil stockpiling policies while taking into account the possibility of imposing an import tariff or quota which can also be used for alleviating the energy insecurity of an oil importing country employing a dynamic programming framework this paper examines the optimal spr policies and oil import tariffs or quotas for china and the interactions between the two instruments under different scenarios for the world oil market the results show that the combination of optimal tariffs and spr policies can substantially reduce the expected oil insecurity cost for china the effect is larger when the probability that a disruption will continue is higher

economic growth and electricity consumption in cote d ivoire evidence from time series analysis this paper examines the causal relationship between the electric power industry and the economic growth of cote d ivoire using the data from 1971 to 2008 a test was conducted for the cointegration and granger causality within an error correction model results from these tests reveal a bidirectional causality between per capita electricity consumption and per capita gdp a unidirectional causality running from electricity consumption to industry value added appears in the short run economic growth is found to have great effects on electricity consumption and a reverse causality from electricity to economic growth may also appear in the long run there is a unidirectional causality between electricity and both gdp and industry value added from these findings we conclude that the country will be energy dependent in the long run and must therefore secure the production network from shortfalls to ensure a sustainable development path accordingly government should adopt policies aimed at increasing the investment in the sector by stepping up electricity production from existing and new energy sources

modelling the link between commodity prices and exchange rates the tale of daily data this paper examines daily data on exchange rates and the prices of three commodities traded on the winnipeg commodity exchange the temporal patterns of commodity prices and exchange rates are shown to be similar daily data are significantly non normal with garch models capturing the processes generating the data commodity prices and exchange rates are examined for cointegration using recent tests proposed by johansen and juselius 1990 currency depreciation is shown to granger cause commodity price inflation this information might be useful to central bankers concerned with reducing general price inflation through targeting commodity price inflation it also suggests that macro events have important effects on commodity markets in canada

willingness to pay for renewable energy primary and discretionary choice of british households for micro generation technologies this paper documents the policy context of renewable energy production in the european union the research adopts a choice experiment approach to investigate households wtp for these renewable energy technologies in the uk the micro generation technologies comprise solar photovoltaic micro wind solar thermal heat pumps and biomass boilers and pellet stoves the study compares the results from conditional and mixed logit models which estimate the distribution of utility coefficients and then derives wtp values as a ratio of the attribute coefficient to the price coefficient with a model in which the wtp distribution is estimated directly from utility in the money space the results suggest that whilst renewable energy adoption is significantly valued by households this value is not sufficiently large for the vast majority of households to cover the higher capital costs of micro generation energy technologies

causality relationship between electricity consumption and gdp in bangladesh in this paper we examine the causal relationship between the per capita electricity consumption and the per capita gdp for bangladesh using cointegration and vector error correction model our results show that there is unidirectional causality from per capita gdp to per capita electricity consumption however the per capita electricity consumption does not cause per capita gdp in case of bangladesh the finding has significant implications from the point of view of energy conservation emission reduction and economic development

a novel hybrid method for crude oil price forecasting abstract forecasting crude oil price is a challenging task given the nonlinear and time varying characteristics of international crude oil prices we propose a novel hybrid method to forecast crude oil prices first we use the ensemble empirical mode decomposition eemd method to decompose international crude oil price into a series of independent intrinsic mode functions imfs and the residual term then the least square support vector machine together with the particle swarm optimization lssvm pso method and the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity garch model are developed to forecast the nonlinear and time varying components of crude oil prices respectively next the forecasted crude oil prices of each component are summed as the final forecasted results of crude oil prices the results show that the newly proposed hybrid method has a strong forecasting capability for crude oil prices due to its excellent performance in adaptation to the random sample selection data frequency and structural breaks in samples furthermore the comparison results also indicate that the new method proves superior in forecasting accuracy to those well recognized methods for crude oil price forecasting

comparison of china s oil import risk results based on portfolio theory and a diversification index approach in recent years the international oil price has fluctuated violently bringing about huge risk for the international oil trade in fact the risk of crude oil and petroleum product imports is different because of the different import origins and prices which import risk is lower for china from the perspective of oil supply security how should china portfolio crude oil and petroleum product imports to minimize its oil import risk using portfolio theory and a diversification index approach this paper compares and analyzes the supply price and transport risks of crude oil and petroleum product imports our results show that the following 1 specific risk diversification risk and marine transport risk of china s petroleum product imports are lower than that of crude oil imports 2 the average rate of return of china s petroleum product imports is higher than that of crude oil imports moreover the average import price variance of petroleum product imports is lower than that of crude oil imports thus the systematic risk price risk of petroleum products is lower too therefore from the perspective of oil supply security china should increase petroleum product imports to decrease its oil import risk

when will occur the crude oil bubbles abstract in this paper we apply a recursive unit root test to investigate whether there exist multiple bubbles in crude oil price the method is best suited for a practical implementation of a time series and delivers a consistent date stamping strategy for the origination and termination of multiple bubbles the empirical result indicates that there exist six bubbles during 1986 2016 when the oil price deviate from its intrinsic value based on market fundamentals specifically oil price contains the fundamentals and bubble components the dates of the bubbles correspond to specific events in the politics and financial markets the authorities should actively fight speculative bubbles or just observe their evolutions and speculation activities may decrease which is favour of the stabilisation of the staple commodities including crude oil price these findings have important economic and policy implications to recognise the cause of bubbles and take corresponding measures to reduce the impact on the real economy cause of the fluctuation of crude oil price

oil stockpiles and import reductions a dynamic programming approach this paper analyzes oil stockpiling policies using models in which u s policy choices are restricted to just two instruments stockpiles and disruption tariffs the model considers the influence of u s and in general oecd import demands upon the opec price for oil and the duration and severity of oil disruptions induced by disturbances among the opec nations our development is based upon a probabilistic view of disruptions analyzed by applying dynamic programming

economic growth energy conservation and emissions reduction a comparative analysis based on panel data for 8 asian pacific countries this study was conducted to evaluate the causality between energy consumption gdp growth and carbon emissions for eight asia pacific countries from 1971 to 2005 using the panel data the results indicate that there are long run equilibrium relationships between these variables additionally causality from energy consumption to co2 emissions was observed generally but there were some opposite relationships also parameter estimations of the panel data model indicate that there are great differences in the carbon emissions the efficiencies of energy use carbon emissions of unit gdp and unit energy consumption between developed and developing countries the base carbon emissions per capita energy consumption and efficiency of energy use in developing countries are far lower than in developed countries however the co2 emissions per unit of energy use is higher although developing countries may reduce their co2 emission per unit energy use total energy consumption will rise rapidly with economic development thus developing countries must determine how to undergo economic growth while conserving energy and reducing emissions to respond to global climate change it is necessary to develop innovative technology for energy use transform the energy structure and conduct the clean development mechanism

do environmental benefits matter evidence from a choice experiment among house owners in germany residential buildings strongly contribute to global co2 emissions due to the high energy demand for electricity and heating particularly in industrialised countries within the eu decentralised heat generation is of particular relevance for future climate policy as its emissions are not covered by the eu ets we conducted a choice experiment concerning energy retrofits for existing houses in germany in the experiment the approximately 400 sampled house owners could either choose a modern heating system or an improved thermal insulation for their home we used standard and mixed logit specifications to analyse the choice data we found environmental benefits to have a significant impact on choices of heating systems however they played no role in terms of insulation choices based on the estimated mixed logit model we further obtained willingness to pay wtp measures for co2 savings

an optimization model for renewable energy generation and its application in china a perspective of maximum utilization in response to climate change china s power industry is undertaking the task of reducing carbon emissions renewable energy generation has become an important option for the government and state grid companies it is important to know the maximum possible capacities of renewable energy generation from its different sources in order to plan the construction of the power grid in the future in this paper several important factors affecting the development of renewable energy generation are identified through a review of the existing literature such as cost technical maturity and so on and analyzed combined with the learning curve model the technology diffusion model and expectations about future economic development in china a new model the renewable energy optimization model reom is developed to analyze the development of three renewable energy sources wind power solar power and biomass power from 2009 to 2020 results show that 1 the maximum installed capacities of wind power solar power and biomass power will reach 233321 26680 and 35506 mw in 2020 2 from 2009 to 2020 biomass power will develop rapidly at the early stage while wind power is developed massively at the final stage and solar power has relatively stable growth 3 due to the added capacity in the early periods the unit investment cost of solar power shows a large decline which is good for its following scale development 4 the investment ratio constraint has a large effect on the development of wind power while the constraint of on grid proportion of renewable energy generation has a significant effect on the development of wind power and solar power the results have important policy implications for long term energy planning in developing countries such as china and india

oil price shocks and stock markets in the u s and 13 european countries abstract oil price shocks have a statistically significant impact on real stock returns contemporaneously and or within the following month in the u s and 13 european countries over 1986 1 2005 12 norway as an oil exporter shows a statistically significantly positive response of real stock returns to an oil price increase the median result from variance decomposition analysis is that oil price shocks account for a statistically significant 6 of the volatility in real stock returns for many european countries but not for the u s increased volatility of oil prices significantly depresses real stock returns the contribution of oil price shocks to variability in real stock returns in the u s and most other countries is greater than that of interest rate an increase in real oil price is associated with a significant increase in the short term interest rate in the u s and eight out of 13 european countries within one or two months counter to findings for the u s and for norway there is little evidence of asymmetric effects on real stock returns of positive and negative oil price shocks for oil importing european countries

an empirical analysis of the risk of crude oil imports in china using improved portfolio approach abstract this paper quantifies the diversification index of china s crude oil imports during the period 1996 2004 and explores the relationship between the monthly prices and brent crude oil cash prices accordingly we calculate the systematic and specific risks using portfolio theory of china s crude oil import over the period 1996 2004 because china s crude oil import increased rapidly since 1996 we improve upon the traditional portfolio theory and develop a risk index model of portfolio theory for crude oil imports in order to explore objectively the changes in china s crude oil import risks the results show that china s crude oil import risk is affected extensively by the fluctuation of international oil prices so the traditional portfolio theory is insufficient to measure china s crude oil import risk the improved portfolio theory risks index model reflects the effect of international oil prices diversification imports and geopolitics factors etc on crude oil import risk and changes in crude oil import risk therefore the risk index model of portfolio theory provides greater theoretical and methodological robustness as an indicator of china s crude oil import security than that offered from the application of traditional measures of dependence

on the difficulty of eliciting summary information abstract the revelation principle asserts that in principle the allocative performance of direct mechanisms institutions in which an exhaustive report of privately held information is elicited from each agent is at least as good as that of any other class of institutions the distinction between the incentive properties of such exhaustive reporting and of summary reporting is studied here it is shown that unless strong restrictions are placed on an agent s utility function the incentive properties of truthful summary reporting about a multidimensional parameter e g reporting of its first coordinate are extremely fragile

willingness to pay for energy saving measures in residential buildings this paper uses a choice experiment to evaluate the consumers willingness to pay for energy saving measures in switzerland s residential buildings these measures include air renewal ventilation systems and insulation of windows and facades two groups of respondents consisting respectively of 163 apartment tenants and 142 house owners were asked to choose between their housing status quo and each one of the several hypothetical situations with different attributes and prices the estimation method is based on a fixed effects logit model the results suggest that the benefits of the energy saving attributes are significantly valued by the consumers these benefits include both individual energy savings and environmental benefits as well as comfort benefits namely thermal comfort air quality and noise protection

the relationship amongst energy consumption foreign direct investment and output in developed and developing countries abstract the current study inspects the nexus amongst energy consumption fdi inflows and output in 75 countries meantime the period 1990 2010 we further examine this relationship with regard to developed as well as developing countries assembled from diverse geographic regions from the world the present results display that there is proof of bidirectional linkage concerning fdi and output per capita concerning renewable energy consumption and gross domestic product per capita and concerning non renewable energy and gross domestic product per capita in the three groups of countries developed all and developing in addition the judgments detect a bidirectional linkage concerning renewable energy consumption and fdi in developed countries an increase of 1 rate in renewable energy participates to improving fdi by 0 185 and at the same time an increase of fdi contributes to enhancing renewable energy by 0 292 nevertheless in the case of all and developing countries the results discover unidirectional link moving from foreign inflows to both sorts of energy in conclusion the policy recommendations of our empirical results are taken into consideration

energy consumption and economic growth evidence from china at both aggregated and disaggregated levels using a neo classical aggregate production model where capital labor and energy are treated as separate inputs this paper tests for the existence and direction of causality between output growth and energy use in china at both aggregated total energy and disaggregated levels as coal oil and electricity consumption using the johansen cointegration technique the empirical findings indicate that there exists long run cointegration among output labor capital and energy use in china at both aggregated and all three disaggregated levels then using a vec specification the short run dynamics of the interested variables are tested indicating that there exists granger causality running from electricity and oil consumption to gdp but does not exist granger causality running from coal and total energy consumption to gdp on the other hand short run granger causality exists from gdp to total energy coal and oil consumption but does not exist from gdp to electricity consumption we thus propose policy suggestions to solve the energy and sustainable development dilemma in china as enhancing energy supply security and guaranteeing energy supply especially in the short run to provide adequate electric power supply and set up national strategic oil reserve enhancing energy efficiency to save energy diversifying energy sources energetically exploiting renewable energy and drawing out corresponding policies and measures and finally in the long run transforming development pattern and cut reliance on resource and energy dependent industries

empirical analysis of optimal strategic petroleum reserve in china abstract the chinese government began to prepare for the establishment of strategic petroleum reserve in march 2004 therefore answering the question of what level of strategic petroleum reserve would be suitable for china s future economic development becomes essential using a decision tree model based on a cost function this paper quantifies china s optimal strategic petroleum reserve for the period 2005 2020 this approach provides a methodology reference for further quantified discussion on china s spr our results show that for economic development and security of the energy supply the strategic petroleum reserve should be the equivalent of 30 60 days of net oil import for an optimal solution when the oil price is 50 bbl with a reserve of an equivalent of 60 90 days of net oil import to have an optimal solution when oil price is 20 35 bbl

the impact of financial development on carbon emissions an empirical analysis in china given the complexity between china s financial development and carbon emissions this paper uses some econometric techniques including cointegration theory granger causality test variance decomposition etc to explore the influence of financial development on carbon emissions results indicate that first china s financial development acts as an important driver for carbon emissions increase which should be taken into account when carbon emissions demand is projected second the influence of financial intermediation scale on carbon emissions outweighs that of other financial development indicators but its efficiency s influence appears by far weaker although it may cause the change of carbon emissions statistically third china s stock market scale has relatively larger influence on carbon emissions but the influence of its efficiency is very limited this to some extent reflects the relatively lower liquidity in china s stock markets finally among financial development indicators china s fdi exerts the least influence on the change of carbon emissions due to its relatively smaller volume compared with gdp but it is mainly utilized in carbon intensive sectors now therefore with the increase of china s fdi in the future many efforts should be made to adapt its utilizing directions and play its positive role in promoting low carbon development

how integrated are the money market and the bank loans market within the european union abstract this paper estimates cointegration vectors of the time series of money market interest rates and bank lending rates the study includes six member countries of the european union eu and covers a period of 10 years from 1985 to 1994 during this period significant steps were taken that intensified financial integration in the eu including the free flow of capital a system of stable exchange rate parities and the implementation of a single market for banking services we conclude that the domestic money markets are closely linked but the domestic banking markets are segmented preliminary investigation of international differences in the capital structure of firms on the one hand and of domestic business cycle conditions on the other hand do not seem to explain differences in bank spreads across countries the results point to other directions presumably to local market power and to differences in the role of lender monitoring

ex ante incentive efficient trading mechanisms without the private valuation restriction abstract the private valuation assumption found in most trading mechanism design papers rules out markets whose valuation structure generates externalities between traders this paper characterizes the set of ex ante incentive efficient trading mechanisms for a large class of markets that do admit such externalities and for bilateral trade markets establishes the impossibility of a first best solution across a class of trading problems employing uniform priors and linear valuation structures this paper also compares levels of market efficiency for varying numbers of traders

handling unobserved site characteristics in random utility models of recreation demand abstract this paper presents a new random utility model of recreation demand that addresses the unobserved characteristics of recreation sites most random utility recreation demand models implicitly assume that all relevant site characteristics are observed by the researcher or allow for the possibility of unobserved characteristics in a restrictive manner unlike traditional approaches the proposed model avoids the bias unobserved site characteristics can cause in welfare estimates and the travel cost parameter monte carlo simulations motivate the proposed model by showing that it provides more efficient parameter estimates in contrast existing methods yield less efficient estimates and biased standard errors that overstate precision an empirical application to recreational fishing in wisconsin illustrates the potential importance of this modeling innovation in this application controlling for unobserved characteristics is important for a range of model specifications

unilateral disclosure of private information by a regulated firm abstract it is common practice for regulators to depend on regulated firms for self monitoring and self reporting in spite of incentives for misrepresentation our analysis provides some justification for such dependence we study disclosure of information in a game theoretic model of regulation in which both the regulator and the firm are players in the game instead of designing a regulation scheme that compels disclosure we study unilateral disclosure in a given regulatory framework a framework which we believe has counterparts in current regulatory practice the results provide insight to informal relationships between firms and regulators because the game is a single period game the informal relationship in which the disclosures occur cannot be attributed to the existence of reputations and long term relationships

the dynamics of natural gas consumption and gdp in bangladesh abstract reserves of natural gas in bangladesh are very large and total demand has increased secularly in recent years this paper examines the causal relationship between the consumption of natural gas and gdp in bangladesh over the period 1980 to 2010 we find that there is a positive unidirectional causality running from gdp to natural gas consumption movements in gdp affect the consumption of natural gas but not vice versa while our results rest on several statistical assumptions they support the pursuit of policies that are in line with energy conservation implementing these policies will be of particular significance in light of the fact that bangladesh s current reserves of natural gas will not meet its current level of consumption demand beyond the next two decades

inventory and equilibrium adjustments in international commodity markets a multi cointegration approach recent advances in cointegration tests and error correction models are applied to the analysis of commodity inventory behaviour multi cointegration was considered in inventory series of seven internationally traded products in contrast to previous works on inventory behaviour which first hypothesize a relationship and then gather empirical evidence to emulate the postulated behaviour an error correction model was used to represent theoretical inventory relationships which are established by multi cointegration tests the results support the use of this approach to determine the optimal stockpiling rules of producers and consumers

a dynamic programming model of china s strategic petroleum reserve general strategy and the effect of emergencies abstract to protect the security of energy supply china is building national strategic petroleum reserve spr we present a dynamic programming model to determine the optimal stockpiling and drawdown strategies for china s spr under various scenarios focusing on minimizing the total cost of reserves in contrast to previous research the oil price given in our model is exogenous on a monthly instead of annual basis with a view to more realistic simulation of optimal strategies each year our model results show that in the case where stockpiling affects oil prices a given spr size will be achieved earlier than when stockpiling does not affect oil prices in different emergency conditions the optimal stockpiling and drawdown strategies of china s spr are very different when an emergency occurs the shock of stockpiling on the oil price per barrel could range 0 49 6 35 while the impact of drawdown on the oil price per barrel could range 6 22 to 0 48

defence spending and unemployment rates an empirical analysis disaggregated by race this analysis brings u s time series evidence to bear on the relationship of defense spending and unemployment rates results indicate that defense increases during the 1970s were associated with improvements in the overall unemployment rate however during the 1980s such increases were associated with a worsening of the unemployment rate furthermore upon disaggregation into black and white unemployment rates it was found that in general whites were helped by defense spending increases while blacks were hurt this evidence offers support for the claim that an increasing complex military production process will lead to diminished employment gains particularly for minorities who are not proportionately represented in the high tech industries that serve the military copyright 1990 by oxford university press

the integration of china into the world crude oil market since 1998 abstract the integration of china into the world oil market is an important issue for at least two reasons first the influence of the country on the world oil market is dependent on the level of the integration second integration into the world oil market means that china is opening itself up to potential disturbances in the world market and this leads to significant energy security concerns for the country the aim of this paper is to investigate whether or not china is an integral part of the world oil market by reviewing the relevant trade and pricing policies of the chinese government as well as the behavior of the chinese national oil companies we find that china is actively engaging itself in the world oil market our time series results show that the chinese oil price is cointegrated with the major oil prices in the world and a high degree of co movement between the prices is found causality between the price pairs is found to be bi directional in most cases the empirical results suggest that china is now an integral part of the world oil market

propensity of green consumption behaviors in representative cities in china abstract green consumption behaviors are based on consumers attitude however there is a gap between them improving green consumption attitude will to a large extent affect the acceptance of green consumption the study interviewed consumers in four representative cities in china through questionnaires which was to search for a solution that affect consumers willingness to pay for green products by employing a multivariate logistic regression furthermore an empirical analysis was made to study their green consumption behaviors it is shown that chinese consumers have already been aware of green consumption to a certain extent and that green consumption willingness is influenced by age location sources of information and a host of other factors at present nearly half of the consumers are willing to pay an extra of no more than 5 for green products which is lower than the premium price for green products relative to non green ones however the actual premium price of green products in china exceeds this level in general rendering green products a less advantageous position in markets approaches including multiple marketing channels trade in services and green branding can effectively raise consumers reserve price for green products

do emerging markets matter in the world oil pricing system evidence of imported crude by china and india abstract this paper provides empirical evidence on the changing structure of world oil price system by identifying an additional driver emerging market factor we choose china and india as a representative of emerging markets to examine if the quantity of crude oil imported by china and india is significant in the existing oil pricing system kaufmann et al 2004 our data starts from january 2002 and ends in march 2010 which includes the oil shock of 2007 2008 we utilize cointegration and error correction model framework developed by engle granger 1987 and gregory hansen 1996 in the analysis our results indicate that demand from emerging markets has become a significant factor in the world oil pricing system since 2003 this result is significant as it lends empirical support to the widely held conjecture that the oil shock of 2007 2008 is a demand led shock hamilton 2009 our result also has significant policy implications that go beyond the oil shock the emerging market factor is there to stay and reflects the changing power between emerging and developed economies in the world economic system as a result of decades of fast economic development in the former it will certainly influence policy issues related to oil and beyond

asymmetric effects of oil prices and exchange rates on china s industrial prices abstract this paper explores the impacts of positive and negative changes in crude oil price and exchange rate variables on raw material procurement prices and product ex factory prices of china s industrial enterprises we run the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag nardl model for the full sample from january 2000 to june 2019 and find the existence of the cointegrating relationships and the asymmetries of the long run effects from positive and negative changes in oil price and exchange rate variables then we run the ols and quantile regressions for the two subsamples through the analysis of the estimates in different quantities in the latter model we obtain rich and novel findings the main findings include the inconsistency between the practice of oil price and exchange rate transmissions in china and the usual theoretical explanations and the active roles of china s oil product mechanism and exchange rate policy reforms in mitigating transmission distortions in addition we also find other asymmetries such as the asymmetric effects in different locations of dependent variable s conditional distribution and the different effects on raw material prices and product ex factory prices from the same independent variables

re investigating the electricity consumption and economic growth nexus in portugal in the previous decades a number of studies have been conducted to analyse the causal relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in the portuguese economy however the evidence remains controversial because the previous studies do not provide clear causality evidence this might be attributed to the omitted variables bias because most previous studies only focus on the relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in a bi variate model this paper attempts to re investigate the relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in portugal using a multivariate model based on the bounds testing approach to cointegration and the granger causality test within the vector error correction model vecm our empirical results confirm the presence of cointegration among the variables moreover there is evidence of bi directional causality between electricity consumption and economic growth in the short and long run this suggests that energy is an important source of economic growth in portugal therefore energy conservation policies should not be implemented because it would deteriorate the process of economic growth and development of the portuguese economy

generic existence of completely revealing equilibria for economies with uncertainty when prices convey information conditions which imply the existence of strict rational expectations equilibria for most static pure exchange economies where prices convey information about the state of the world are analyzed information is aggregated and transmitted by prices because agents have different initial information and maximize the conditional expectation of state dependent utility functions major results state that if with probability one agents characteristics do not vary too much as the state of the world varies then generically there exist equilibrium price functions which reveal all initial information more precisely if the support of the image measure is contained in a compact c1 manifold satisfying some technical conditions which is of sufficiently low dimension relative to the number of commodities then existence of completely revealing equilibria is generic any economy satisfying these assumptions can be approximated by a sequence of economies which also obey these assumptions and have completely revealing equilibrium price functions slight perturbations do not destroy the existence property

energy consumption pollutant emissions and economic growth in south africa article i nfo article history this paper examines the long run and the causal relationship between economic growth pollutant emissions and energy consumption for south africa for the period 1965 2006 in a multivariate framework which includes labour and capital as additional variables using the bound test approach to cointegration we found a short run as well as a long run relationship among the variables with a positive and a statistically significant relationship between pollutant emissions and economic growth further applying a modified version of the granger causality test we also found a unidirectional causality running from pollutant emissions to economic growth from energy consumption to economic growth and from energy consumption to co2 emissions all without a feedback the econometric evidence suggests that south africa has to sacrifice economic growth or reduce its energy consumption per unit of output or both in order to reduce pollutant emissions in the long run however it is possible to meet the energy needs of the country and at the same time reduce co2 emissions by developing energy alternatives to coal the main source of co2 emissions however the econometric results upon which the policy suggestions are made should be interpreted with care as they may not be sufficiently robust enough to categorically warrant the choice of an unpalatable policy option by south africa

using stockpile delegation to improve china s strategic oil policy a multi dimension stochastic dynamic programming approach abstract there has been much attention paid to oil security in china in recent years although china has begun to establish its own strategic petroleum reserve spr to prevent potential losses caused by oil supply interruptions the system aiming to ensure china s oil security is still incomplete this paper describes and provides evidence for the benefits of an auxiliary strategic oil policy choice which aims to strengthen china s oil supply security and offer a solution for strategic oil operations with different holding costs in this paper we develop a multi dimension stochastic dynamic programming model to analyze the oil stockpile delegation policy which is an intermediate policy between public and private oil stockpiles and is appropriate for the chinese immature private oil stockpile sector the model examines the effects of the oil stockpile delegation policy in the context of several distinct situations including normal world oil market conditions slight oil supply interruption and serious oil supply interruption operating strategies that respond to different oil supply situations for both the spr and the delegated oil stockpile were obtained different time horizons interruption times and holding costs of delegated oil stockpiles were examined the construction process of china s spr was also taken into account

stockpile strategy for china s emergency oil reserve a dynamic programming approach abstract china is currently accelerating construction of its strategic petroleum reserves how should china fill the spr in a cost effective manner in the short run how might this affect world oil prices using a dynamic programming model to answer these questions the objective of this paper is to minimize the stockpiling costs including consumer surplus as well as crude acquisition and holding costs the crude oil acquisition price in the model is determined by global equilibrium between supply and demand demand in turn depends on world market conditions including china s stockpile filling rate our empirical study under different market conditions shows that china s optimal stockpile acquisition rate varies from 9 to 19 million barrels per month and the optimal stockpiling drives up the world oil price by 3 7 the endogenous price increase accounts for 52 of total stockpiling costs in the base case when the market is tighter or the demand function is more inelastic the stockpiling affects the market more significantly and pushes prices even higher alternatively in a disruption drawdown from the stockpile can effectively dampen soaring prices though the shortage is likely to leave the price higher than before the disruption

impacts of opec s political risk on the international crude oil prices an empirical analysis based on the svar models abstract the impacts of opec s political risk on the fluctuations of international crude oil prices have caused widespread concern and analyzing the impacts is of great significance to the investment decisions and risk aversion strategies in the crude oil markets therefore using the international country risk guide icrg index as a proxy for the countries political risk situation we empirically investigate the impacts of opec s political risk on the brent crude oil prices based on several structural vector autoregression svar models the main empirical results indicate that 1 the political risk of opec countries does have a significant and positive influence on brent crude oil prices in the sample period from january 1998 to september 2014 and the most significant positive influences appear in about one and a half year and last about a year 2 opec s integrated political risk contributes to 17 58 of the oil price fluctuations in the sample period which is only lesser than that of the oil demand shocks 34 64 3 compared with the political risk of opec countries in north africa and south america the political risk of opec countries in the middle east contributes most to the oil price fluctuations 4 among the eight components of the political risk in opec the internal conflicts contribute most to the oil price fluctuations in the sample period

how much do rights matter summary do better political rights yield more economic development by addressing the econometric challenges plaguing this question we find support for a positive impact of rights on development for a significant grouping of countries the association is nonlinear the positive impact of rights is particularly strong at low rights levels it is either absent or negative in an intermediate rights range and returns to a moderate positive impact at high levels of rights there is also evidence to suggest that transitions from autocratic political dispensations are associated with significant negative output shocks

what determines real exchange rates the nordic countries the model derived in this paper yields testable implications concerning the long run co movements of real exchange rates relative labor productivity the trade balance and terms of trade countries with relatively higher output growth trade deficits or improved terms of trade are found to have more appreciated real exchange rates with the main channel of transmission working through the relative price of nontraded goods exogenous terms of trade shocks are found to be the most important determinant of long run movements in the real exchange rate for denmark and norway while demand shocks account for most of the long run variance in the real exchange rate for finland and sweden

models of military expenditure a brief review of the extensive empirical literature devoted to explaining levels of military expenditure indicates a wide variety of unreconciled results however comparing the alternative models is not straightforward this paper uses british post war military expenditures to illustrate some of the methodological issues involved in model comparison evaluation and selection starting from two published models for the uk a systematic specification search leads to a new model which dominates alternative specifications passes a wide range of misspecification tests and also fits well to french data

time varying linkages between tourism receipts and economic growth in south africa the causal link between tourism receipts and gdp has recently become a major focus in the tourism economics literature results obtained in recent studies about the causal link appear to be sensitive with respect to the countries analysed sample period and methodology employed considering the sensitivity of the causal link we use rolling window and time varying coefficient estimation methods to analyse the parameter stability and granger causality based on a vector error correction model vecm when applied to south africa for the period 1960 2011 the findings are as follows results from the full sample vecm indicate that there is no granger causality between tourism receipts and gdp while the findings from the time varying coefficients model based on the state space representation show that tourism receipts have positive predictive content for gdp for the entire period with the exception of the period between 1985 and 1990 full sample time varying causality tests show bidirectional strong causal

an empirical analysis of the dynamic programming model of stockpile acquisition strategies for china s strategic petroleum reserve abstract the world s future oil price is affected by many factors the challenge therefore is how to select optimal stockpile acquisition strategies to minimize the cost of maintaining a reserve this paper provides a new method for analyzing this problem using an uncertain dynamic programming model to analyze stockpile acquisition strategies for strategic petroleum reserve using this model we quantify the impact of uncertain world oil price on optimal stockpile acquisition strategies of china s strategic petroleum reserve for the period 2007 2010 and 2011 2020 our results show that the future stockpile acquisition is related to oil prices and their probability and if not considering the occurrence of oil supply shortage china should at least purchase 25 million barrels when world oil price is at an optimal level the optimal price of stockpile acquisition of every year has a stronger relationship with the probability of high price and the optimal expected price and size of stockpile acquisition is different in each year

modeling and forecasting energy consumption in china implications for chinese energy demand and imports in 2020 the chinese economy is in a stage of energy transition from low efficiency solid fuels to oil gas and electric power from agriculture to urbanization and industrialization from heavy industry to lighter and high tech industry from low motorization to rapid growth of the motor vehicle population experts fear that continued rapid economic growth in china will translate into a massive need to expand imports of oil coal and gas we build an econometric model of the chinese energy economy based on the energy balance we use that model to forecast chinese energy consumption and imports to 2020 the study suggests that china will indeed require rapidly growing imports of oil coal and gas this growth is not so sensitive to the rate of economic growth as to increases in motorization it can be offset but probably only in small part by increasing domestic energy production or by improvements in the efficiency of use particularly in the production of electric power

does china factor matter an econometric analysis of international crude oil prices abstract whether china s crude oil imports are the culprit of oil price volatility these years has not been quantitatively confirmed therefore this paper empirically investigates the role of china s crude oil net imports in brent price changes from october 2005 to november 2013 based on an econometric analysis the results indicate that during the sample period china s crude oil imports do not significantly affect brent price changes no matter in the long run or short run therefore the blame for china s crude oil imports to cause the dramatic fluctuations of international oil price has no solid evidence also there exists significant uni directional causality running from the brent price to china s crude oil imports at the 5 level besides the response of the brent price to china s crude oil imports is found positive but slight and the brent price responds more significantly to us dollar exchange rate and oecd commercial inventory than to china s crude oil imports in the short run finally the contribution of china s crude oil imports to brent price movement is about 10 which is less than that of us dollar exchange rate but larger than that of indian crude oil imports or oecd commercial inventory

causality cointegration and control abstract the first sections of the paper show that causality tests can be relevant when considering the effectiveness of a control mechanism rejecting some results in earlier papers the relevance comes from a more careful consideration of what information is available to whom and when compared to previous work the final section of the paper extends this analysis to cointegrated variables when causality is a necessary consequence

tourism expansion tourism uncertainty and economic growth new evidence from taiwan and korea abstract this study examines the causal relationship between tourism expansion and economic growth in two asian countries taiwan and south korea an egarch m model with uncertainty factors is employed to examine the direction of causality between tourism expansion and economic growth as well as the impulse impacts of uncertainty on both variables the results indicate that the tourism led economic growth hypothesis is supported for taiwan while a reciprocal causal relationship is found for south korea the significant impacts of uncertainty on growth are also identified

accounting for uncertainty in willingness to pay for environmental benefits previous literature on the distribution of willingness to pay has focused on its heterogeneity distribution without addressing exact interval estimation in this paper we derive and analyze bayesian confidence sets for quantifying uncertainty in the determination of willingness to pay for carbon dioxide abatement we use two empirical case studies household decisions of energy efficient heating versus insulation and purchase decisions of ultralow emission vehicles we first show that deriving credible sets using the posterior distribution of the willingness to pay is straightforward in the case of deterministic consumer heterogeneity however when using individual estimates which is the case for the random parameters of the mixed logit model it is complex to define the distribution of interest for the interval estimation problem this latter problem is actually more involved than determining the moments of the heterogeneity distribution of the willingness to pay using frequentist econometrics a solution that we propose is to derive and then summarize the distribution of point estimates of the individual willingness to pay under different loss functions

energy consumption and gdp in tunisia cointegration and causality analysis abstract in this paper the johansen cointegration technique is used to examine the causal relationship between per capita energy consumption pcec and per capita gross domestic product pcgdp for tunisia during the 1971 2004 period in order to test for granger causality in the presence of cointegration among the variables a vector error correction model vecm is used instead of a vector autoregressive var model our estimation results indicate that the pcgdp and pcec for tunisia are related by one cointegrating vector and that there is a long run bi directional causal relationship between the two series and a short run unidirectional causality from energy to gross domestic product gdp the source of causation in the long run is found to be the error correction terms in both directions hence an important policy implication resulting from this analysis is that energy can be considered as a limiting factor to gdp growth in tunisia conclusions for tunisia may also be relevant for a number of countries that have to go through a similar development path of increasing pressure on already scarce energy resources

energy consumption and gdp causality a three step analysis for emerging european countries abstract the established european targets should play a leading role in the complex economic process of energy consumption and the emerging countries have to consider their implications for adjusting the energy policies at national level this paper develops investigations on the causality relationship between energy consumption and gdp in the context of emerging european countries covering the period 1980 2013 this research covers the limits identified by previous researchers by detailing the energy consumption by sources and by referring to five emerging countries in europe unlike most of the previous studies it has a double approach long and short run bidirectional relationships a detailed analysis on the impact of economic growth on the energy consumption by country is conducted in order to contribute to the enrichment of the research field towards this objective a three step analysis is performed stationarity cointegration and causality tests are considered the empirical study shows mixed results there is a balance in confirming conservation growth and neutrality hypotheses in some specific cases results imply that energy consumption and economic growth are jointly determined however a comparative analysis for different significance levels draws attention on the differences in judgment of results for this type of studies discussions on the results in terms of causality are conducted in order to identify future trends for research

the energy gdp nexus addressing an old question with new methods abstract this paper reassesses the causal relationship between per capita energy use and gross domestic product while controlling for capital and labour productivity inputs in a panel of 30 oecd countries over the past 40 years the paper uses panel unit root and cointegration testing and specifies an appropriate vector error correction model to analyse the nexus between income and energy use in doing so we contribute to an old debate using modern tools that shed a new light there is some evidence that over the very short run bidirectional causality exists our results also show a strong unidirectional causality running from capital formation and gdp to energy usage in the long run the reverse causality found in recent work is lost we then show that we can reproduce these earlier results in our data if we reproduce a slightly misspecified model for the engle granger two step procedure used in these earlier papers our findings thus imply that results are very sensitive to model misspecification and careful testing of specifications is required our results have some strong policy implications they suggest that policies aimed at reducing energy usage or promoting energy efficiency are not likely to have a detrimental effect on economic growth except over the very short run

oil prices speculation and fundamentals interpreting causal relations among spot and futures prices abstract a consensus that the world oil market is unified begs the question where do innovations in oil prices enter the market here we investigate where changes in the price of crude oil originate and how they spread by examining causal relationships among prices for crude oils from north america europe africa and the middle east on both spot and futures markets results indicate that innovations first appear in spot prices for dubai fateh and spread to other spot and futures prices while other innovations first appear in the far month contract for west texas intermediate and spread to other exchanges and contracts links between spot and futures markets are relatively weak and this may have allowed the long run relationship between spot and future prices to change after september 2004 together these results suggest that market fundamentals initiated a long term increase in oil prices that was exacerbated by speculators who recognized an increase in the probability that oil prices would rise over time

energy security coping with multiple supply risks this study starts from the observation that today s western trading nations are exposed to multiple risks of energy supplies eg simultaneous shortage of oil and gas supplies to cope with these risks both oil and gas can be stockpiled adopting the viewpoint of a policy maker who aims at minimizing the expected cost of security of supply optimal simultaneous adjustments of oil and gas stocks to exogenous changes such as an increase in the probability of supply disruption are derived against this benchmark one dimensional rules such as oil reserves for 90 days turn out to be not only suboptimal but also to suggest adjustments exacerbating suboptimality

dynamic relationship of oil price shocks and country risks abstract this study investigates the dynamic relationship between oil price shocks and country risks using a structural var framework for a sample of both net oil exporting and net oil importing countries over the period january 1994 december 2014 the results reveal that country risk is significantly affected by oil price shocks but the impacts are different unanticipated positive oil price shocks trigger a reduction addition in country risk for net oil exporting country net oil importing countries as to the responses of oil prices to country risk shock evidence show that country risk shocks have a delayed significantly positive impacts on oil price for oil exporting country with respect to the effects of subcomponents of country risk we find evidence that economic and political risk have a significant impact on supply side shocks in net oil exporting countries like canada while economic and political risk have a significant effect on supply side shocks and oil specific demand shocks in net oil importing countries like the us these results are particularly important to policy makers and government

china s oil use 1990 2008 abstract over the past two decades china s oil demand has risen steeply in 1990 it was only about 25 higher than that of 1978 the year economic reform was introduced by 2008 it had reached 396 0 million tons roughly four times the 1978 level making china the second largest oil user worldwide the country became a net oil importer in 1993 and between 1993 and 2008 its net import dependency a yardstick for energy security soared from 7 5 to 50 0 china s increased demand for oil has made the country a global energy player of critical importance although the literature on the global implications of china s oil use has proliferated relatively few studies have attempted to examine how china uses oil hence this study covers every oil consuming facility and sector in china exploring the patterns of and factors involved in oil demand by power plants oil refineries heat plants and gas works and industrial transport agricultural household and commercial sectors it concludes that in virtually all sectors in china oil demand will grow with transport and industry leading the way

the impact of global oil price shocks on china s bulk commodity markets and fundamental industries this paper investigated the reaction of aggregate commodity market to oil price shocks and also explored the effects of oil price shocks on china s fundamental industries metals petrochemicals grains and oilfats we separated the volatilities of oil price into expected unexpected and negatively expected categories to identify how oil prices influence bulk commodity markets we contrasted the results between different periods and among classified indices in order to discover the significant changes in recent years and the differences at an industry level our results indicate that the aggregate commodity market was affected by both expected and unexpected oil price volatilities in china the impact of unexpected oil price volatilities became more complex after 2007 the metals and grains indices did not significantly respond to the expected volatility in oil prices in contrast to the petrochemicals and oilfats indices these results not only contribute to advancing the existing literature but also merit particular attention from policy makers and market investors in china

increasing the influence of co 2 emissions information on car purchase in response to concerns related to climate change and an attempt to encourage more sustainable behavior individuals are often provided with information on greenhouse gas emissions ghgs of consumer items such as personal vehicles currently in the us information on vehicle efficiency is provided as grams of carbon dioxide co2 per mile previous research presenting co2 as a mass and testing willingness to pay through discrete choice experiment has found that such information can influence vehicle choice however other research has questioned whether how this information is presented might affect choice that research argues that co2 emission information generally lacks contextualization that allows for interpretation as well it argues that the type of contextualization may affect choices that research though did not test willingness to pay and the strength of its influence is not clear in addition research exists that argues that using pro social as opposed to financial contextualization might be more influential on people s choices thus the purpose of this paper is to build on these previous findings on how co2 emissions are presented to determine whether changing how that information impacts vehicle choice with a discrete choice experiment of vehicle choice analyzed using latent class modeling no previous study has so robustly studied the influence that different framings might have on vehicle purchase five different methods of presenting co2 information are tested in this experiment co2 emissions as grams per mile current method co2 emissions as pounds per year consistent imperial units co2 emissions as tons per year yearly contextualization an annual tax on co2 yearly financial contextualization and co2 as a percentage of the 2025 us epa reduction target of 26 from 2005 levels social goal contextualization results demonstrate that the current method results in lowest willingness to pay for co2 emission reductions while the social goal contextualization results in the highest

the outlook for us oil dependence abstract oil dependence is defined as a dynamic problem of short and long run market power the potential monopoly power of an oil cartel depends on its market share and the elasticities of oil supply and demand while the economic vulnerability of oil consuming states depends most directly on the quantity of oil imported and the oil cost share of gross domestic product gdp of these factors only the market share of the organization of petroleum exporting countries opec cartel and the rate of growth of world oil demand are clearly different than they were 25 years ago opec still holds the majority of world oil and in the future will regain market share a hypothetical 2 year supply reduction in 2005 2006 similar in size to those of 1973 1974 or 1979 1980 illustrates the potential benefits to opec and harm to the us economy of a future oil price shock opec s revenues are estimated to increase by roughly 0 7 trillion while the us economy loses about 0 5 trillion strategic petroleum reserves seem ineffective against a determined multi year supply curtailment increasing the market s price responsiveness by improving the technologies of oil supply and oil demand can greatly reduce the costs of oil dependence each element of this interpretation of the oil dependence problem is well supported by previous studies this paper s contribution is to unite these elements into a coherent explanation and to point out the enormously important implications for energy policy

is there a relationship between international trade and international travel this paper investigates for the first time whether there is a relationship between international trade and international travel flows using time series econometric techniques using data for australia and four important travel and trading partners the usa the uk nz and japan the paper tests three specific hypotheses that business travel leads to international trade that international trade leads to international travel and that international travel other than business travel leads to international trade using cointegration and granger causality approaches the paper finds support for prior beliefs that there is a relationship between international travel and international trade and suggests that this may be a fruitful area for further research

a model based on stochastic dynamic programming for determining china s optimal strategic petroleum reserve policy china s strategic petroleum reserve spr is currently being prepared but how large the optimal stockpile size for china should be what the best acquisition strategies are how to release the reserve if a disruption occurs and other related issues still need to be studied in detail in this paper we develop a stochastic dynamic programming model based on a total potential cost function of establishing sprs to evaluate the optimal spr policy for china using this model empirical results are presented for the optimal size of china s spr and the best acquisition and drawdown strategies for a few specific cases the results show that with comprehensive consideration the optimal spr size for china is around 320 million barrels this size is equivalent to about 90 days of net oil import amount in 2006 and should be reached in the year 2017 three years earlier than the national goal which implies that the need for china to fill the spr is probably more pressing the best stockpile release action in a disruption is related to the disruption levels and expected continuation probabilities the information provided by the results will be useful for decision makers

optimal path for china s strategic petroleum reserve a dynamic programming analysis abstract this paper proposes a dynamic programming model to explore the optimal stockpiling path for china s strategic petroleum reserve before 2020 the optimal oil acquisition sizes in 2008 2020 under different scenarios are estimated the effects of oil price risks and elasticity value on inventory size are further investigated it is found that the optimal stockpile acquisition strategies are mainly determined by oil price and total inventory costs while oil supply disruption is not considered china s optimal stockpile acquisition rate increases from 19 2 to 52 million barrels from 2008 to 2020 if an oil supply disruption occurs the oil acquisition rate will be reduced significantly however it may not be a good strategy to interrupt oil reserve activities in order to minimize the total costs for the entire planning period

the relationship between oil price shocks and china s macro economy an empirical analysis china postdoctoral science foundation 20090460751 ministry of education of the people s republic of china 09yjc790167 09yja820074 national social science funds 09zd050 08ajy031

strategic oil stockpiling for energy security the case of china and india abstract compared with the developed countries the developing countries could be more vulnerable to oil supply disruptions due to their lack of strategic petroleum reserves sprs several developing countries including china and india are establishing their sprs to ensure energy security in the common world oil market one country s spr decisions can be affected by the decisions of other countries this paper investigates the spr policies of china and india two of the largest developing countries in a game theoretic framework where the interactions between the two countries are taken into account the results show that players equilibrium stockpiling strategies and total expected costs could vary significantly with the initial oil market state stockpile acquisition capacity and the probabilities for disruptions to persist

residential and non residential electricity dynamics abstract this paper uses u s panel data to instrument and examine the dynamics of electricity within the world market while separating between both residential and non residential electricity consumptions during the time period of 1990 2014 to better assess the true differences within each causal relationship all panel data has been separated into one full panel and three subpanels of high middle and low income the empirical framework used consists of various tests that identify the existence of cross sectional dependency a pesaran panel unit root test a westerlund panel cointegration test and the dumitrescu hurlin method of the granger causality test furthermore this paper utilizes dols to estimate any long run elastic relations between real gdp and residential or non residential electricity consumption based on the results this paper determines that no long run relationship exists between non residential electricity consumption and economic growth throughout and that the relationship between residential electricity consumption and economic growth possesses unit elastic behavior in the long run other findings throughout imply causality moves from economic growth in the direction of residential electricity consumption for all panels

the effect of electricity consumption from renewable sources on countries economic growth levels evidence from advanced emerging and developing economies abstract this paper uses a sample of 36 countries for the time period 1990 2011 in order to examine the relationship between countries electricity consumption from renewable sources and gross domestic product gdp levels several nonparametric techniques are applied to investigate the effect of electricity consumption from several renewable sources including wind geothermal solar biomass and waste on countries gdp levels when investigating the whole sample ignoring countries economic development status the results reveal an increasing relationship up to a certain gdp level which after that point the effect of electricity consumption on gdp stabilises however when analyzing separately the emerging markets and developing economies and the advanced developed economies the results change significantly for the case of emerging market and developing economies the relationship appears to be highly nonlinear an m shape form indicating that on those countries the levels of electricity consumption from renewable sources will not result on higher gdp levels in contrast for the case of the advanced economies the results reveal an increasing nonlinear relationship indicating that higher electricity consumption levels from renewable sources results to higher gdp levels this finding is mainly attributed to the fact that in the advanced developed economies more terawatts from renewable sources are generated and consumed compared to the emerging market and developing economies which traditionally their economies rely on non renewable sources for power generation and consumption

a reconsideration of hedonic price indexes with an application to pc s this paper compares hedonic to matched model indexes matched model indexes are averages of the price changes of goods that remain on sampled stores shelves since goods that disappear tend to have falling market values matched model indexes select from the right tail of price changes the bls can construct hedonic indexes that correct for this selection and are justified by standard arguments in an empirical study of pc s hedonics produce sharp price declines while matched model indexes are near zero also though there are modifications to hedonics that seem desirable they are not those in current use

an analysis of the global oil market using svarma models the paper analyses the importance of supply versus demand shocks on the global oil market from 1974 to 2017 using a parsimonious structural vector autoregressive moving average svarma model the superior out of sample forecasting performance of the reduced form varma compared to var alternatives advocates the suitability of this framework we specifically account for the changes in the oil market over three distinctive sub periods pre moderation great moderation and post moderation periods to provide a means of identifying the changing nature of shock transmission mechanism across times the findings shed some light on the effects of supply versus demand related oil shocks under different economic environment oil supply shocks explain large fraction of the movements in the global oil market in the pre and post moderation periods i e during the slower economic growth periods the importance of global activity shock on oil price movements is obvious during the 2003 2008 boom period the oil specific shock has an interesting transmission path on the global economic activity where the global activity responded positively and negatively during the global economic expansion and contraction respectively emphasising the precautionary nature of the shock

energy consumption and economic growth the case of oil exporting countries this paper examines the causal relationship between the per capita energy consumption and the per capita gdp in a panel of 11 selected oil exporting countries by using panel unit root tests and panel cointegration analysis the results show a unidirectional strong causality from economic growth to energy consumption for the oil exporting countries the findings have practical policy implications for decision makers in the area of macroeconomic planning in most major oil exporting countries government policies keep domestic prices bellow free market level resulting in high levels of domestic energy consumption the results imply that the energy conservation through reforming energy price policies has no damaging repercussions on economic growth for this group of countries

carbon quota price and cdm potentials after marrakesh abstract the kyoto protocol sets quantified ghg emission reduction commitments for annex i parties but their emission reduction requirements related to bau projections one of the key factors to effect on future carbon market are uncertain both the decisions made in bonn and marrakesh would have further consequences for how the future carbon market will take shape this paper with application of the carbon emission reduction trading model evaluates future carbon quota price and clean development mechanism cdm potentials under different bau projections and does sensitivity analysis on carry over of aaus cers and erus implementation rate transaction cost holding of cers in non annex i parties etc to assess the impacts of relevant decisions of cop6 bis and cop7 on the carbon market under different bau projections future carbon quota price and cdm potentials could vary widely carry over of aaus cers erus and holding of cers in non annex i parties could raise both quota price and total cdm potentials considerably implementation rate could have big impacts on both carbon quota price and cdm potentials especially for the cases formerly with relatively high cdm potentials and it could also change the regional distribution of cdm potentials transaction cost s effect on the carbon market would be comparatively low but would become unignorable in the market whose quota price is low it would lead to a downward trend in price while upward in cdm potentials when increasing the implementation rate or lowering transaction cost withdrawal of usa would dramatically shrink carbon price and credit amount and large numbers of hot air and sink credits would further greatly crowd out the cdm projects carry over of aaus cers and erus holding of cers in non annex i parties prompt start of cdm projects etc would however enhance the total cdm credits to ensure more investment and technology flow to developing countries to promote their sustainable development

china on the move oil price explosion abstract rapid expansion of highway and jet traffic in china has created a surge of demand for oil products putting pressure on world energy markets and petroleum product prices this paper examines trends in freight and passenger traffic to assess how growth in china s transport demand relates to growth in china s economy as well as the energy intensity of transport based on assumptions about demand elasticity and energy intensity a range of scenarios is developed for china s oil demand through 2020 incremental oil demand from china s transport sector is then compared with world oil demand projections to assess the likely impact on world oil prices the finding is that new demand from china s transport sector would likely raise world oil prices in 2020 by 1 3 in reference scenarios or by 3 10 if oil supply investment is constrained

on the optimal level of a small country s strategic petroleum reserve abstract decisions relating to a country s strategic petroleum reserve must take into account the level of risk inherent in its petroleum imports the cost resulting from any shortfall in the import level the cost of storage and finally the effects of stockpiling transactions on the sensitive spot oil markets of course small countries need not take into account their effect on the global market a fact that drastically simplifies their decision problem we present such a simple decision model for a small country s petroleum reserve which in addition to the above factors take into account the uncertainty of the country s refining capacity a complete analytical treatment is feasible for this model and a specific numerical example is presented for the case of greece

forecasting crude oil market volatility further evidence with jumps this paper analyzes volatility models and their forecasting abilities in the presence of jumps in two crude oil markets brent and west texas intermediate wti between january 6th 1992 and december 31st 2014 we compare a number of garch type models that capture short memory as well as asymmetry garch gjr garch and egarch estimated on raw returns to three competing approaches that deal with the presence of jumps garch type models estimated on jump filtered returns and two new classes of volatility models called generalized autoregressive score gas and markov switching multifractal msm models estimated using raw returns the forecasting performance of these volatility models is evaluated using the model confidence set approach which allows us to identify a subset of models that outperform all the other competing models we find that asymmetric models estimated on filtered returns provide better out of sample forecasts than do garch gas type and msm models estimated on raw return series for brent and wti returns

long run dynamics of black and official exchange rates abstract this paper examines the relationships among black and official foreign exchange rates its primary purpose is to investigate the way in which black and official markets process information application of cointegration tests to the turkish markets for us dollars and west german marks in the mid 1980s indicates that the two black markets are efficient information processors for the black and official markets of each currency evidence is found suggesting the possibility of overshooting by the black exchange rate this inefficiency may not be able to be arbitraged away because of restrictions on capital flows through official channels

recreation demand models with taste differences over people we estimate random parameter logit models of anglers choice of fishing site the models generalize logit by allowing coefficients to vary randomly over anglers rather than being fixed the models do not exhibit the restrictive independence from irrelevant alternatives property of logit and can represent any substitution pattern estimation explicitly accounts for the fact that the variation in coefficients over anglers induces correlation in unobserved utility over trips by the same angler willingness to pay for improved fish stock and the value to anglers of specific sites are calculated from the models and compared with the estimates obtained from a standard logit model

energy consumption and output evidence from a panel of 14 oil exporting countries abstract we examine the long run relation and short run dynamics between energy consumption and output in a panel of 14 oil exporting countries over 1980 2007 panel unit root tests which account for common cross sectional factors fail to reject non stationarity in both variables thus we explore their long run relation and short run dynamics using three alternative panel estimation techniques dynamic fixed effect pooled and mean group estimators before and after accounting for common cross sectional factors these estimators allow for various degrees of heterogeneity in long run parameters and short run dynamics the results based on the mean group estimator with common correlated effects suggest a a stable relation between energy consumption and output b bi directional causality in both long and short run and c the robustness of the long run causality results to the inclusion of additional variables as such environmental policies designed to curtail energy may have significant long run ramifications for economic growth and policies designed to promote economic growth may have adverse environmental consequences

the influence of energy consumption of china on its real gdp from aggregated and disaggregated viewpoints abstract this paper investigated the causal relationship between energy consumption and gross domestic product gdp in china at both aggregated and disaggregated levels during the period of 1978 2009 by using a modified version of the granger 1969 causality test proposed by toda and yamamoto 1995 within a multivariate framework the empirical results suggested the existence of a negative bi directional granger causality running from aggregated energy consumption to real gdp at disaggregated level of energy consumption the results were complicated for coal empirical findings suggested that there was a negative bi directional granger causality running from coal consumption to real gdp however for oil and gas empirical findings suggested a positive bi directional granger causality running from oil as well as gas consumption to real gdp though these results supported the feedback hypothesis the negative relationship might be attributed to the growing economy production shifting towards less energy intensive sectors and excessive energy consumption in relatively unproductive sectors the results indicated that policies with reducing aggregated energy consumption and promoting energy conservation may boost china s economic growth

a comparison of stated preference methods for environmental valuation this paper presents an empirical comparison of contingent valuation cvm and choice experiments which are used to value environmental quality changes both of these methods require individuals to state their preferences for environmental qualities however choice experiments differ from cvm in that environmental attributes are varied in an experimental design which requires respondents to make repeated choices between bundles of attributes the empirical application involved the effect of environmental quality changes arising from forest management practices on recreational moose hunting values significant differences were found between the values derived from the two methods however detailed examination of the implied choice behaviour suggested that respondents ignored substitute recreation areas in the cvm question restricting the choice experiment model to consider only the one site where quality was varied resulted in welfare estimates similar to the cvm model this highlights the importance of substitutes in environmental valuation and suggests that choice experiments may be more appropriate than cvm in some cases