to float or to fix evidence on the impact of exchange rate regimes on growth we study the relationship between exchange rate regimes and economic growth for a sample of 183 countries over the post bretton woods period using a new de facto classification of regimes based on the actual behavior of the relevant macroeconomic variables in contrast with previous studies we find that for developing countries less flexible exchange rate regimes are associated with slower growth as well as with greater output volatility for industrial countries regimes do not appear to have any significant impact on growth the results are robust to endogeneity corrections and a number of alternative specifications borrowed from the growth literature

perishable inventory theory a review this paper reviews the relevant literature on the problem of determining suitable ordering policies for both fixed life perishable inventory and inventory subject to continuous exponential decay we consider both deterministic and stochastic demand for single and multiple products both optimal and sub optimal order policies are discussed in addition a brief review of the application of these models to blood bank management is included the review concludes with a discussion of some of the interesting open research questions in the area

environmental taxation in open economies unilateralism or partial harmonization there are two reasons why countries might set weak environmental policies transboundary pollution and concerns for competitiveness this article explores the full interactions between these two features within a unified general equilibrium framework first we show that competitive concerns change the structure of output taxes but not that of emission taxes they lead to a lowering of output taxes lower polluting good prices an increase in emission taxes adoption of less or same polluting technologies increased aggregate emissions and lower overall welfare levels second we show that partially harmonizing commodity taxes above their unrestricted nash equilibrium value can potentially hurt as well as improve the pollution technology overall quality of the environment and welfare the three attributes move positively together on the other hand harmonizing of emission taxes above their nash equilibrium values appear to always lead to improvements in the environment and welfare via adoption of cleaner technologies

real exchange rate volatility and economic openness theory and evidence this paper relates the volatility of the trade weighted effective real exchange rate to the degree of trade openness of an economy the theoretical part presents an intertemporal monetary model of a small open economy with nominal rigidities both monetary and aggregate supply shocks are shown to produce ceteris paribus smaller real exchange rate movements if the country is more open to foreign trade empirical evidence on a cross section of forty eight countries confirms this relationship differences in trade openness explain a large part of the cross country variation in the volatility of the effective real exchange rate

what to target inflation or exchange rate author affiliation shu lin shulin75 gmail comhaichun ye haichunye gmail com acknowledgment the authors would like to thank kent kimbrough and two anonymous referees for valuable comments 1 introductionone of the most important recent innovations in the conduct of monetary policy is inflation targeting in which a monetary authority makes public an estimated inflation rate or range and attempts to steer the actual inflation toward the target using monetary tools since its emergence in the early 1990s inflation targeting has certainly been gaining popularity over the last two decades by the end of 2006 27 countries among which 17 are developing countries had explicitly adopted this new monetary policy regime the emergence of inflation targeting has attracted substantial attention from both researchers and policymakers numerous studies have empirically evaluated the effects of adopting an explicit inflation targeting regime on a country s economic performance especially on inflation and growth while studies focusing on advanced industrial countries so far have yielded mixed results the evidence in developing countries seems to be more robust 1 batini kuttner and laxton 2005 goncalves and salles 2008 and lin and ye 2009 all find that inflation targeting significantly lowers inflation in developing countries where the credibility of the central bank has not yet been well established thus the credibility gain of adopting an explicit inflation targeting regime is substantial in addition capistran and ramos francia 2010 show that inflation targeting significantly lowers the dispersion of inflation expectations in developing countries two recent survey articles walsh 2009 and ball 2010 also concluded that inflation targeting has larger beneficial effects in developing countries than those in advanced industrial countries despite the success of inflation targeting in developing countries the more traditional exchange rate targeting framework still remains the dominant monetary policy regime in developing countries it is so popular that an influential study by calvo and reinhart 2002 finds an epidemic case of fear of floating in the developing world 2 furthermore similar to inflation targeting an exchange rate targeting regime especially a credibly enforced one is also viewed as an effective means to achieve price stability in developing countries because it serves as a nominal anchor by allowing a developing central bank to borrow credibility from a foreign monetary authority in a strict exchange rate targeting framework the targeting country s inflation rate should be equal to that of the country usually a low inflation rich country to which its exchange rate is pegged does an inflation targeting framework outperform an exchange rate targeting regime in achieving price stability in developing countries if so does this benefit come at a cost of slower growth these two important and policy related questions have not yet been examined in the literature a common feature of previous studies is that they all compare an inflation targeting regime with a very broad alternative namely a non inflation targeting regime while ignoring the substantial heterogeneity in the monetary policy regimes adopted by non inflation targeting countries a disadvantage of comparing inflation targeting with such a broad alternative is that the results may not be of direct use for policy choices the objective of this study therefore is to make the first attempt in the literature to conduct a direct empirical comparison of the emerging inflation targeting framework with the popular exchange rate targeting regime in developing countries in particular we compare the effects of these two monetary policy regimes on two key outcome variables inflation and economic growth our study is built upon three recent empirical works on the effects of inflation targeting in developing countries including batini kuttner and laxton 2005 goncalves and salles 2008 and lin and ye 2009 but we focus on directly comparing inflation targeting with exchange rate targeting

cross border shopping and the optimum commodity tax in a competitive and a monopoly market using a partial equilibrium model optimality rules for a commodity tax are derived for an economy that is exposed to cross border shopping in a competitive market the conventional inverse elasticity rule is shown to be valid with the qualification that it is the elasticity of domestic rather than total demand that matters with a foreign monopoly the inverse elasticity is modified by a tax shifting effect when the supplier is a multinational firm price repercussions abroad should be taken into account the implications for domestic taxation of the prices and taxes set abroad are also examined

the effect of inflation targeting on the behavior of expected inflation evidence from an 11 country panel abstract inflation targets were introduced in the 1990s in australia canada new zealand sweden and the united kingdom change in the behavior of expected inflation in the five targeting countries is measured in a panel that includes six non targeting countries france germany italy the netherlands japan and the united states the level of expected inflation in targeting countries falls after the announcement of targets with controls for country effects year effects ongoing inflation reduction and the business cycle neither the variability of expected inflation nor the average absolute forecast error falls after the announcement of targets with controls for the level and variability of past inflation both targeting and non targeting countries experience unexpected disinflation

does inflation targeting improve fiscal discipline abstract we explore the performances of inflation targeting it adoption in terms of fiscal discipline fd while most existing studies focus exclusively on the role of fd as a precondition for it adoption using a sample of developing and developed countries we show that it adoption exerts a positive and significant effect on fd a result robust to a wide variety of alternative specifications in addition this effect is statistically significant only in developing countries a result that may fuel the current debate regarding the relevance of it adoption in general and particularly for developing countries

central bank transparency and cross border banking abstract we analyze the effect of central bank transparency on cross border bank activities based on a panel gravity model for cross border bank claims for 21 home and 47 destination countries from 1998 to 2010 we find strong empirical evidence that a rise in central bank transparency in the destination country on average increases cross border claims using interaction models we find that the positive effect of central bank transparency on cross border claims is only significant if the central bank is politically independent and operates in a stable economic environment central bank transparency and credibility are thus considered complements by banks investing abroad

tax competition and tax co ordination under destination and origin principles a synthesis this paper proposes a general framework for analysing commodity tax competition under destination and origin principles based on three possible tax spillovers the consumer price spillover the producer price terms of trade spillover and rent spillovers a model is presented which can be extended to accommodate all three spillovers using this model many of the results in the existing literature can be derived compared and extended

inflation targeting and inflation performance a comparative analysis this article examines how the impact of inflation targeting on inflation performance depends on the choice of country samples adoption dates time periods and methodological approaches we apply two different estimation methods difference in differences and propensity score matching for our sample of 25 advanced and 59 emerging and developing countries over the period 1985 to 2011 our findings suggest that distinguishing countries by economic development is crucial as no effect of inflation targeting is found for advanced economies whereas the results suggest a significant negative effect of inflation targeting on inflation in emerging and developing countries the results are robust to the methodology used for the analysis

on the international effects of inflation targeting abstract this study empirically examines the international effects of inflation targeting employing a variety of propensity score matching methods we find strong evidence that inflation targeting has significantly different impacts on exchange rate volatility and international reserves in different country groups it significantly increases real and nominal exchange rate stability and international reserves in developing countries but lowers them in industrial countries on average inflation targeting increases lowers reserves roughly by the size of 1 3 1 8 months of imports values in developing industrial countries the treatment effects on targeting countries current accounts are found to be insignificant in both country groups

studying optimal paternalism illustrated by a model of sin taxes the classical economic approach to policy analysis assumes that people always respond optimally to the costs and benefits of their available choices a great deal of evidence suggests however that in some contexts people make errors that lead them not to behave in their own best interests economic policy prescriptions might change once we recognize that humans are humanly rational rather than superhumanly rational and in particular it may be fruitful for economists to study the possible advantages of paternalistic policies that help people make better choices we propose an approach for studying optimal paternalism that follows naturally from standard assumptions and methods of economic theory write down assumptions about the distribution of rational and irrational types of agents about the available policy instruments and about the government s information about agents and then investigate which policies achieve the most efficient outcomes in other words economists ought to treat the analysis of optimal paternalism as a mechanism design problem when some agents might be boundedly rational this approach has many advantages first and foremost by explicitly addressing when and how people do and don t pursue their own best interests economists will be better able to contribute to policy debates to contribute to debates over regulating private financial decisions we must study whether financial decisions are based on fallacious statistical reasoning and whether self control problems lead people to borrow too heavily to contribute to debates over teenage smoking we must study whether teenagers become smokers against their long run best interest economists will and should be ignored if we continue to insist that it is axiomatic that constantly trading stocks or accumulating consumer debt or becoming a heroin addict must be optimal for the people doing these things merely because they have chosen to do it a second advantage of our approach is that it forces us to look for the best feasible policy our

does inflation targeting affect the dispersion of inflation expectations in this paper we examine the effect of having an inflation targeting framework on the dispersion of inflation forecasts from professional forecasters we use a panel data set of 25 countries including 14 inflation targeters with 16 years of monthly information we find that the dispersion of long run inflation expectations is smaller in targeting regimes after controlling for country specific effects time specific effects the level and the variance of inflation disinflation periods and global inflation on average the full effect is not observed until the third year after implementation of inflation targeting when we differentiate between developed and developing countries the dispersion of inflation expectations after inflation targeting is smaller and statistically significant only in developing countries

tax incidence when individuals are time inconsistent the case of cigarette excise taxes abstract one of the most cogent criticisms of excise taxes is their regressivity with lower income groups spending a much larger share of their income on goods such as cigarettes than do higher income groups we argue that traditional quantity based measures of incidence are only appropriate under a very restrictive time consistent model of consumption of sin goods a model that is much more consistent with existing evidence on smoking decisions is a time inconsistent formulation where excise taxes on cigarettes serve a self control function that is valued by smokers who would like to quit but cannot this self control function benefits lower income groups more since they have a significantly higher price sensitivity of smoking calibrations show that as a result cigarette taxes are much less regressive than previously assumed and are even progressive for a wide variety of parameter values

inflation targeting as a shock absorber abstract we study the characteristics of inflation targeting as a shock absorber using quarterly data for a large panel of countries to overcome an endogeneity problem between monetary regimes and the likelihood of crises we propose to study large natural disasters we find that inflation targeting improves macroeconomic performance following such exogenous shocks it lowers inflation raises output growth and reduces inflation variability compared to alternative monetary regimes this performance is mostly due to a different response of monetary policy and fiscal policy under inflation targeting finally we show that only hard but not soft targeting reaps the rewards deeds not words matter for successful monetary stabilization

bond markets initiation and tax revenue mobilization in developing countries we analyze the relationship between the introduction of a sovereign bond market bm and tax revenue mobilization behavior using a large sample of 119 developing countries propensity scores matching estimations reveal that bm participation significantly fosters domestic tax revenue mobilization moreover we find that this favorable effect is sensitive to bm countries characteristics namely the stance of monetary and fiscal policies the exchange rate regime the level of economic development and the degree of financial openness and financial development finally our results show that bm participation fosters internal taxes and reduces their instability compared to international trade taxes these findings highlight the strength of bm in promoting structural reforms in developing countries through encouraging them to increase their tax effort and even by contributing to some extent to the fiscal transition process

the role of the exchange rate in monetary policy rules for a country that chooses not to permanently fix its exchange rate through a currency board or a common currency or some kind of dollarization the only alternative monetary policy that can work well in the long run is one based on the trinity of i a flexible exchange rate ii an inflation target and iii a monetary policy rule while not often put into this threepart format the desirability of such a monetary policy in an open economy is in my view the clear implication of three corresponding strands of recent monetary research i research on fixed exchange rates regimes including the influential 1995 article the mirage of fixed exchange rates by maurice obstfeld and kenneth rogoff and the many analyses of the breakdown of fixed exchange rate regimes in the late 1990 s ii research on the practical success with inflation targeting by ben bernanke et al 1999 and iii research on the benefits of simple monetary policy rules see e g taylor 1999a this clear policy implication however does not end the debate about how exchange rates should be taken into account in formulating monetary policy even if one excludes capital controls and sterilized exchange market intervention from consideration because they are not effective or attractive ways to de link exchangerate movements from the domestic interest rate a crucial question remains how should the instruments of monetary policy the interest rate or a monetary aggregate react to the exchange rate should policymakers avoid any reaction and focus instead on domestic indicators such as inflation and real gdp or is the rule of thumb that a substantial appreciation of the real exchange rate furnishes a prima facie case for relaxing monetary policy as characterized by obstfeld and rogoff 1995 p 93 a better monetary policy rule or perhaps policymakers should heed the obstfeld rogoff warning that substantial departures from ppp purchasing power parity in the short run and even over decades make such a policy reaction to the exchange rate undesirable more generally if one accepts the trinity concept of monetary policy in an open economy then what is the role of the exchange rate in the monetarypolicy rule

the modern history of exchange rate arrangements a reinterpretation we develop a novel system of reclassifying historical exchange rate regimes one key difference between our study and previous classifications is that we employ monthly data on market determined parallel exchange rates going back to 1946 for 153 countries our approach differs from the imf official classification which we show to be only a little better than random it also differs radically from all previous attempts at historical reclassification our classification points to a rethinking of economic performance under alternative exchange rate regimes indeed the breakup of bretton woods had less impact on exchange rate regimes than is popularly believed

a markov switching analysis of contagion in the ems abstract this paper applies the multivariate version of the forbes and rigobon 2002 contagion test as proposed by dungey et al 2005a to detect contagion effects in the exchange rate mechanism erm of the european monetary system ems crisis and non crisis observations are determined endogenously via a markov switching vector autoregression msvar we show that the msvar is suitable for this purpose as it does particularly well in identifying the 11 realignments of the erm we examine whether denmark s rejection of the maastricht treaty and italy s competitiveness problems affected other ems participants and find evidence for contagion

transitions at different moments in time a spatial probit approach this paper adopts a spatial probit approach to explain interaction effects among cross sectional units when the dependent variable takes the form of a binary response variable and transitions from state 0 to 1 occur at different moments in time the model has two spatially lagged variables one for units that are still in state 0 and one for units that had already transferred to state 1 the parameters are estimated on observations for those units that are still in state 0 at the start of the different time periods whereas observations on units after they transferred to state 1 are discarded just as in the literature on duration modeling furthermore neighboring units that had not yet transferred may have a different impact from units that had already transferred we illustrate our approach with an empirical study of the adoption of inflation targeting for a sample of 58 countries over the period 1985 2008 copyright 2016 john wiley sons ltd

global liquidity transmission to emerging market economies and their policy responses abstract this paper analyzes the transmission of global liquidity gl from advanced economies aes to emerging market economies emes we distill gl momenta from the macro financial data of aes through a factor model and identify them with sign restrictions as policy driven market driven and risk averseness factors using a panel factor augmented var analysis we then investigate eme responses to shocks to gl momenta a positive shock to policy driven liquidity boosts growth in emes elevating stock prices and currency values while a shock to risk averseness has a largely opposite effect a market driven gl expansion boosts stock markets and lowers funding costs increasing competitiveness and current account balance inflation targeting emes are found to fare better than emes under alternative regimes in terms of macro financial volatility

review of inventory systems with deterioration since 2001 abstract this paper presents an up to date review of the advances made in the field of inventory control of perishable items deteriorating inventory the last extensive review on this topic dates back to 2001 goyal s k and giri b c recent trends in modeling of deteriorating inventory european journal of operational research 134 1 16 since then over two hundred articles on this subject have been published in the major journals on inventory control indicating the need for a new review we use the classification of goyal and giri based on shelf life characteristics and demand characteristics contributions are highlighted by discussing main system characteristics including price discounts backordering or lost sales single or multiple items one or two warehouses single or multi echelon average cost or discounted cash flow and payment delay

can partial fiscal coordination be welfare worsening a model of tax competition most work on tax competition argues that mobile factors tend to be undertaxed except if there is coordination of tax policies full coordination is not however always feasible and as a consequence some measures of partial coordination have been proposed such as minimal withholding taxes on interest income we show that partial coordination can be in some instances welfare worsening and that then no coordination is to be preferred

global implications of self oriented national monetary rules author s obstfeld maurice rogoff kenneth abstract it is well known that if international linkages are relatively small the potential gains to international monetary policy coordination are typically quite limited but what if goods and financial markets are tightly linked is it then problematic if countries unilaterally design their institutions for monetary stabilization are the stabilization gains from having separate currencies largely squandered in the absence of effective international monetary coordination we argue that under plausible assumptions the answer is no unless risk aversion is very high lack of coordination in rule setting is a second order problem compared to the overall gains from monetary policy stabilization

the effect of inflation targeting and financial openness on currency composition of sovereign international debt abstract this paper analyzes the joint effect of inflation targeting and capital account openness in promoting changes to the currency composition of sovereign international debt in developing countries first using difference in differences in combination with entropy balancing we offer empirical evidence that the adoption of inflation targeting together with high capital account openness can significantly reduce the reliance on foreign currency denominated sovereign international debt we find that financially integrated inflation targeting countries have 11 percentage points lower foreign currency shares in their sovereign debt compared to non targeting countries second we determine the threshold level of financial openness that countries need to attain before they see the full benefits of inflation targeting third the joint effect of inflation targeting and capital account openness significantly increases three years after the policy implementation our results are robust to alternative specifications which include instrumental variables to account for the endogeneity of the policy

inventory control in a fluctuating demand environment we present an inventory model where the demand rate varies with an underlying state of the world variable this variable can represent economic fluctuations or stages in the product life cycle for example we derive some basic characteristics of optimal policies and develop algorithms for computing them in addition we show that certain monotonicity patterns in the problem data are reflected in the optimal policies

the decoupling of emerging economies theoretical and empirical puzzle with the growing importance of the emerging economies ees in the international scene a lively debate has begun on whether the national economic cycles are converging or the cycles of ees and advanced economies aes are becoming disconnected the so called hypothesis of decoupling of ees from the aes given the important practical implications that decoupling could have for example on the definition of national and international economic policies and on business strategies aimed at investment diversification and risk management the question kindles not only the interest of academics but also policymakers and practitioners are very interested in the issue the decoupling question has been long debated in different circles and from different points of view this survey aims to retrace the steps of this debate and to provide some suggestions for future empirical researches

designing targeting rules for international monetary policy cooperation this study analyzes a two country dynamic general equilibrium model with nominal rigidities monopolistic competition and producer currency pricing a quadratic approximation to the utility of the consumers is derived and assumed as the policy objective function of the policymakers it is shown that only under special conditions there are no gains from cooperation and moreover that the paths of the exchange rate and prices in the constrained efficient solution depend on the kind of disturbance that affects the economy it might be the case either for fixed or floating exchange rates despite this result simple targeting rules that involve only targets for the growth of output and for both domestic gdp and cpi inflation rates can replicate the cooperative allocation

inflation targeting fiscal rules and the policy mix cross effects and interactions we examine how inflation targeting it and fiscal rules fr affect inflation and fiscal performance in a large panel of countries during 1990 2009 in line with theory both fr and it appear to shape monetary and fiscal outcomes significant cross effects seem to exist as it strengthens fiscal performance whereas the combination of fr and it tends to be associated with more disciplined macroeconomic policies than if only one of these institutions operates our findings suggest that it and fr affect the coordination of the policy mix and point to potential benefits of reforming macroeconomic frameworks in a holistic fashion

running to keep in the same place consumer choice as a game of status if individuals care about their status defined as their rank in the distribution of consumption of one positional good then the consumer s problem is strategic as her utility depends on the consumption choices of others in the symmetric nash equilibrium each individual spends an inefficiently high amount on the status good using techniques from auction theory we analyze the effects of exogenous changes in the distribution of income in a richer society almost all individuals spend more on conspicuous consumption and individual utility is lower at each income level in a more equal society the poor are worse off

optimal sin taxes abstract we investigate sin taxes on unhealthy items such as fatty foods that people may by their own reckoning consume too much of we employ a standard optimal taxation framework but replace the standard assumption that all consumers have 100 self control with an assumption that some consumers may have some degree of self control problems we show that imposing taxes on unhealthy items and returning the proceeds to consumers can generally improve total social surplus because such taxes counteract over consumption by consumers with self control problems while at the same time they naturally redistribute income to consumers with no self control problems who consume less such taxes can even create pareto improvements finally we demonstrate with some simple numerical examples that even if the population exhibits relatively few self control problems optimal taxes can still be large

an approximation to the continuous review inventory model with perishable items and lead times a continuous review perishable inventory model based on approximations to the expected outdating the expected shortage quantity and the expected inventory level is developed to determine a best q r ordering policy under a positive order leadtime when the total expected average cost per unit time is minimized the approximation method is simple and verified by a comparison with the weiss model the results reveal that the mean absolute deviation from the optimal total expected average cost per unit time is only 0 58 this paper also compares the proposed model to the conventional model with no perishability a value is given to the item lifetime indicating when an approximate answer approaches closely to the conventional ordering policy finally a simulation model written in simscript ii 5 is used to validate the approximate results

inflation targeting matters evidence from oecd economies sacrifice ratios using data from oecd economies we show that inflation targeters suffered smaller output losses during disinflations when compared to nontargeters we also study why some countries choose to inflation target while others do not and find that higher average inflation and smaller debt levels render the adoption of the regime more likely applying heckman s procedure to control for selection bias does not alter the link between inflation targeting and less costly disinflations

a simple model of commodity taxation and cross border shopping this paper sets up a simple model in which two countries differing in geographical extent engage in commodity tax competition originating in opportunities for cross border shopping the non cooperative tax equilibrium and various coordination initiatives are examined in the benchmark model and in two model extensions incorporating i costs of transportation for goods and ii border inspection among the more surprising results are the following with i pure profits accrue to sellers near the border but subjecting them to tax may lower the country s total tax revenue with ii the volume of cross border shopping may well increase jel classification h20 h87 h26

commodity tax competition between member states of a federation equilibrium and efficiency we first describe regional market equilibria whereupon consumers of each region allocate their purchases of private goods between domestic and nondomestic ones according to the structure of relative prices taxes and transportation costs next regional optimal tax levels and public good quantities are derived the tax of the other region being held constant fiscal competition arises from the ability of one region in choosing its tax to alter the tax base of the other

inflation targeting a new framework for monetary policy he world s central bankers and their staffs meet regularly in venues from basle to washington to share ideas and discuss common problems perhaps these frequent meetings help explain why changes in the tactics and strategy of monetary policymaking such as the adoption of money growth targets in the 1970s the intensification of efforts to reduce inflation in the 1980s and the recent push for increased institutional independence for central banks tend to occur in many countries more or less simultaneously whatever their source major changes in the theory and practice of central banking are of great importance for both individual countries and the international economy in this article we discuss a new strategy for monetary policy known as inflation targeting which has sparked much interest and debate among central bankers and monetary economists in recent years this approach is characterized as the name suggests by the announcement of official target ranges for the inflation rate at one or more horizons and by explicit acknowledgment that low and stable inflation is the overriding goal of monetary policy other important features of inflation targeting include increased communication with the public about the plans and objectives of the monetary policymakers and in many cases increased accountability of the central bank

inflation targeting genuine effects or publication selection bias abstract this paper uses a meta regression analysis mra to evaluate the impact of publication selection bias as for the macroeconomic effects of inflation targeting it a popular approach to implementing monetary policy documented in the existing literature using 8 059 point estimates from 113 studies we show that a significant part of the documented positive effects of it on inflation and to some extent output growth volatility is in fact due to publication selection bias in particular results pointing to lower inflation volatility and higher real gdp growth tend to be favored by researchers as well as those pointing to statistically significant macroeconomic effects however even after controlling for these two types of biases we find it to be correlated with lower inflation and higher real gdp growth differently the evidence on the it inflation volatility relationship is found to be less clear

inflation targeting and output inflation tradeoffs abstract this article assesses whether the adoption of inflation targeting it helps reduce the output inflation tradeoff we address the self selection problem of it policy adoption by the endogenous switching regressions and show that the output inflation tradeoffs are significantly lower in it countries not only over the whole sample but also across the developed and developing country subsamples in addition we also find strong evidence supporting the positive selection hypothesis i e countries have higher probability of adopting it are exactly those who benefit more larger reduction of output inflation tradeoff from the implementation of it additional results reveal that economies with higher trade openness lower financial openness and less flexible exchange rate regime are associated with larger tradeoff between output and inflation but the effects are only statistically significant in the it regime

international experiences with different monetary policy regimes any views expressed in this paper are those of the author only and not those of columbia university or the national bureau of economic research abstract this paper examines the international experiences with four basic types of monetary policy regimes 1 exchange rate targeting 2 monetary targeting 3 inflation targeting and 4 monetary policy with an implicit but not an explicit nominal anchor the basic theme that emerges from this analysis is that transparency and accountability are crucial to constraining discretionary monetary policy so that it produces desirable long run outcomes because the devil is in the details in achieving transparency and accountability what strategy will work best in a country depends on its political cultural and economic institutions as well as on its past history

paternalism and tax competition when consumers make mistakes the government may wish to use paternalistic taxation as a corrective measure we analyse the extent to which tax competition undermines the feasibility of paternalistic taxation we show that the paternalistic component of a tax on a harmful good is reduced when there is cross border shopping but it does not disappear altogether in a model with tax competition between two countries only one of which has a paternalistic objective we show that a minimum tax rate requirement can be pareto improving despite the divergence in policy objectives tax harmonization however reduces welfare in the non paternalistic country

does inflation targeting make a difference in developing countries we evaluate the treatment effect of inflation targeting in thirteen developing countries that have adopted this policy by the end of 2004 using a variety of propensity score matching methods we show that on average inflation targeting has large and significant effects on lowering both inflation and inflation variability in these thirteen countries however the effectiveness of inflation targeting on lowering inflation is found to be quite heterogeneous the performance of a given inflation targeting regime can be affected by country characteristics such as government s fiscal position central bank s desire to limit the movements of exchange rate its willingness to meet the preconditions of policy adoption and the time length since the policy adoption

does inflation targeting really make a difference evaluating the treatment effect of inflation targeting in seven industrial countries abstract we evaluate the treatment effect of inflation targeting in seven industrial countries that adopted this policy in the 1990s to address the self selection problem of policy adoption we make use of a variety of propensity score matching methods recently developed in the treatment effect literature our results show that inflation targeting has no significant effects on either inflation or inflation variability in these seven countries further evidence from long term nominal interest rates and income velocity of money also supports the window dressing view of inflation targeting

the dynamics of exchange rate regimes fixes floats and flips the impermanence of fixed exchange rates has become a stylized fact in international finance the combination of the mirage view that pegs do not really peg with the fear of floating view that floats do not really float generates the conclusion that exchange rate regimes are in practice unimportant for the behavior of the exchange rate this is consistent with evidence on the irrelevance of exchange rate regimes for general macroeconomic performance recent studies however show that the exchange rate regime matters this can be understood by considering the dynamics of exchange rate regimes we demonstrate that the mirage view is somewhat misleading and incomplete pegs frequently break but many do last also there is a high degree of flipping that is the re formation of pegs that have broken thus a fixed exchange rate today is a good predictor that one will exist in the future we also investigate the quantitative effect of fixed exchange rates while the fear of floating view suggests little actual difference in fixed and floating rates with respect to exchange rate volatility we show that fixed exchange rates exhibit considerably greater bilateral exchange rate stability than flexible rates both today and in the future 2007 elsevier b v all rights reserved

a stable international monetary system emerges inflation targeting is bretton woods reversed a stable international monetary system has emerged since the early 1990s a large number of industrial and a growing number of developing countries now have domestic inflation targets administered by independent and transparent central banks these countries place few restrictions on capital mobility and allow their exchange rates to float the domestic focus of monetary policy in these countries does not have any obvious international cost inflation targeters have lower exchange rate volatility and less frequent sudden stops of capital flows than similar countries that do not target inflation inflation targeting countries also do not have current accounts or international reserves that look different from other countries this system was not planned and does not rely on international coordination there is no role for a center country the imf or gold it is durable in contrast to other monetary regimes no country has been forced to abandon an inflation targeting regime succinctly it is the diametric opposite of the post war system bretton woods reversed

the origin principle tax harmonization and public goods abstract this paper takes up two tasks firstly it shows that the conclusion drawn in lucas 2001 lucas v 2001 tax harmonisation and the origin principle economic letters 71 111 115 regarding potential pareto improvement in small open economies needs to be amended secondly in large open economies it verifies that some reasonable conjectures concerning the welfare effects of a particular tax harmonizing reform hold under the origin based tax system when public goods are present

optimal taxation global externalities and labor mobility this paper concerns transboundary environmental problems in the context of an optimal tax model we assume that part of the labor force is mobile across countries and that the set of tax instruments includes a nonlinear income tax and a commodity tax on the dirty good that is causing damage to the environment the purpose is to compare the globally optimal second best policy of a cooperative equilibrium with the policy implicit in a noncooperative equilibrium we show that the commodity taxes differ between equilibria because of i transboundary externalities not internalized by national governments ii interaction effects between environmental and other policies and iii labor mobility

re evaluating the effectiveness of inflation targeting abstract this paper estimates the treatment effect of inflation targeting on macroeconomic variables using a semiparametric single index method by taking into account the model misspecification of parametric propensity scores our study uses a broader set of preconditions for inflation targeting and macroeconomic outcome variables than the existing literature the results suggest no significant difference in the inflation level and inflation volatility between targeters and non targeters after the adoption of inflation targeting we find that inflation targeting reduces sacrifice ratio and interest rate volatility in the developed economies and that it enhances fiscal discipline in both the industrial and developing countries

fear of appreciation abstract in recent years the term fear of floating has been used to describe exchange rate regimes that while officially flexible in practice intervene heavily to avoid sudden or large depreciations however the data reveals that in most cases and increasingly so in the 2000s intervention has been aimed at limiting appreciations rather than depreciations often motivated by the neo mercantilist view of a depreciated real exchange rate as protection for domestic industries as a first step to address the broader question of whether this view delivers on its promise we examine whether this fear of appreciation has a positive impact on growth performance in developing economies we show that depreciated exchange rates indeed lead to higher growth but that the effect rather than through import substitution or export booms as argued by the mercantilist view works largely through the deepening of domestic savings and capital accumulation

does it pay to go to the corners an empirical evaluation of the bipolar view of exchange rate regimes abstract this paper provides the first empirical evidence for the controversial bipolar view which suggests that countries should move towards the two corner regimes my results show that compared to intermediate regimes the two corners are associated with significantly lower inflation

on the impossibility of central bank independence four decades of time and intellectual inconsistency the intellectual justification for modern central banking time inconsistency celebrated its fortieth anniversary in 2017 alongside the cambridge journal of economics however the key progeny of the time inconsistency literature central bank independence has fundamental flaws that have been thus far neglected in mainstream research in the first instance the argument for independence relies on a utilitarian rather than institutional analysis one that neglects the genesis of central banks and their relation to other institutions within a country second central bank independence neglects the complex interdependencies of the global monetary and financial system applying an institutional lens to the concept of central bank independence i conclude that independence fails under the reality of globalization as much as it does in a domestic context with central banks reliant on all manner of political institutions they are never really independent operationally or in terms of policy

pareto improving indirect tax harmonisation abstract indirect tax harmonisation is central to the european commission s proposals for completion of the internal market by 1993 this paper is concerned with the possibility that such tax coordination might be justified on efficiency grounds as a response to tax induced trade distortions necessary and sufficient conditions characterising welfare improving multilateral tax reforms are given and specific forms of harmonisation are shown to be strictly pareto improving without any need for compensation if the initial situation is one in which protectionist tendencies in domestic taxation are sufficiently pronounced

welfare effects of commodity tax harmonisation abstract the european commission is currently seeking a rapid accelaration of the process of commodity tax harmonisation within the european community substantial changes in domestic tax structures are envisaged yet the welfare theoretic basis of the policy has remained obscure this note goes some way towards suggesting a welfare argument for harmonisation as a collective response to tax induced trade distortions intentional or otherwise it is shown that a programme of multilateral domestic tax reform involving convergence towards an appropriately weighted average of pre existing tax structures a kind of harmonisation is potentially pareto improving

a perishable inventory model with markovian renewal demands abstract in the inventory model people usually assume that the inter demand time is independently identical distributed which may not be true in reality here we study an s s continuous review model for items with an exponential random lifetime and a general markovian renewal demand process by constructing markovian renewal equations we derive the mean and the variance of the reorder cycle time and lead to a simple expression for the total expected long run cost rate the numerical results illustrate the system behavior and lead to managerial insights into controlling such inventory systems

jeux sans frontieres tax competition and tax coordination when countries differ in size closer international integration is putting increasing pressure on existing national tax structures this paper uses a simple two country model to address a range of consequent policy concerns focusing particularly on the role of country size differences in size exacerbate the inefficiency from noncooperative behavior harming both countries the smaller country loses from harmonization to any tax rate between those set in the noncooperative equilibrium but both countries gain from the imposition of a minimum tax anywhere in that range the fully optimal response to freer cross border trade however may be to do nothing jel h20 h77

a note on optimal taxation in the presence of externalities abstract i consider the problem of optimal taxation with externalities in a general setup encompassing most of optimal taxation models found in the literature it is demonstrated that when direct taxation of externalities is possible optimal taxes can be expressed as the sum of the optimal pigouvian taxes and the optimal taxes in a related problem without externalities regardless of what other tax instruments are available this result generalizes the so called principle of targeting

a coordinated multi item inventory system for perishables with random lifetime abstract this paper considers the continuous review can order s c s policy for coordinating the replenishment of multiple perishable items with random lifetimes for zero lead time we model this inventory system as a markov process an iterative procedure is proposed to solve the joint replenishment problem for perishable items under positive lead time we investigate the impact of perishability and cost parameters on the performance of the can order policy and compare it to the optimal periodic review s s policy

the role of inflation targeting in international debt denomination in developing countries abstract this paper analyzes the inflation targeting experience of developing countries as an effective monetary policy framework to promote changes in the currency composition of their international debt using matching with difference in differences to address the self selection bias we find that inflation targeting has led to a 3 6 percentage point reduction in the foreign currency share of international debt in targeting countries when compared to non targeting countries with the effect especially pronounced for sovereign international debt differentiating by type of owner we find a reduction of the foreign currency share in foreign held total sovereign debt but no effect on domestic held debt furthermore from the analysis of the us dollar and euro shares we find that inflation targeting has contributed to a 9 percentage points lower dollar share in international debt in targeting countries compared to non targeting countries while the effect on the euro share is negligible this not only provides evidence that the structural features of international financial markets matter but also that monetary policy can help developing countries reduce their reliance on foreign currency debt especially if it is held by foreign investors

fiscal competition and the pattern of public spending much attention has been given to the impact of fiscal competition on the level of public expenditure but relatively little to the impact on its composition using a broadly familiar and reasonably rich model of fiscal competition in the presence of mobile capital this paper establishes a systematic bias in public spending patterns starting from the non cooperative equilibrium and holding tax rates constant welfare would be improved by a coordinated reduction in the provision of local public inputs and a corresponding increase in the public provision of local public goods benefiting immobile consumers c 1997 elsevier science s a