why are there still so many jobs the history and future of workplace automation in this essay i begin by identifying the reasons that automation has not wiped out a majority of jobs over the decades and centuries automation does indeed substitute for labor as it is typically intended to do however automation also complements labor raises output in ways that leads to higher demand for labor and interacts with adjustments in labor supply journalists and even expert commentators tend to overstate the extent of machine substitution for human labor and ignore the strong complementarities between automation and labor that increase productivity raise earnings and augment demand for labor changes in technology do alter the types of jobs available and what those jobs pay in the last few decades one noticeable change has been a polarization of the labor market in which wage gains went disproportionately to those at the top and at the bottom of the income and skill distribution not to those in the middle however i also argue this polarization is unlikely to continue very far into future the final section of this paper reflects on how recent and future advances in artificial intelligence and robotics should shape our thinking about the likely trajectory of occupational change and employment growth i argue that the interplay between machine and human comparative advantage allows computers to substitute for workers in performing routine codifiable tasks while amplifying the comparative advantage of workers in supplying problem solving skills adaptability and creativity

the great reversal in the demand for skill and cognitive tasks this paper argues that several of the poor labor market outcomes observed in the great recession can be traced back to a change in the demand pattern for skilled workers that started with the tech bust of 2000 in particular we show that around the year 2000 the demand for cognitive tasks underwent a reversal in response high skilled workers moved down the occupational ladder and increasingly displaced lower educated workers in less skill intensive jobs while these effects were present before the financial crisis of 2008 they became more obvious after jobs associated with the housing bubble disappeared

workforce education and technical change bias in u s agriculture and related industries the number of hours devoted to value added output in the north american industry classification system naics sector agriculture forestry fishing and hunting is increasingly supplied by individuals with advanced schooling consistent with hypotheses of a positive relationship among technology development adoption and dissemination and a more highly skilled workforce we first test and then conclude that the composition of the workforce is closely aligned with measures of the state of technology consistent with many other studies technical change has been labor saving overall yet technologies adopted have reduced both the absolute and relative numbers of workers not progressing beyond high school the changing composition of the workforce and technical change have driven an average wedge of 31 between reported wages and wages augmented by our estimates of the state of technology this gap was greater in the period prior to the mid 1980s when many of the changes in the education levels of the labor force occurred using estimates from the entire 1947 2010 period the quantity of work provided by the worker hired in 2010 was 31 greater than if no change in labor composition had occurred

automation and labor force participation in advanced economies macro and micro evidence abstract technological advances raise productivity and growth but are also likely to reshape labor markets we examine the impact of automation on aggregate labor force participation rates and individuals attachment to the workforce in advanced economies cross country analysis which leverages the variation in the routinizability of occupations and occupational composition points to significant negative effects of automation on the participation rates of prime age men and women individual level analysis confirms that workers previously employed in routinizable occupations are more likely to drop out of the labor force encouragingly higher spending on active labor market programs and education are however associated with smaller negative effects of technological change on participation

controlling risk in payment systems over the past twenty years the growing integration of financial markets the development of new financial instruments and the advance of computer technology have all contributed to a remarkable growth of financial activity in the main industrialized countries one of the most significant consequences of this growth has been the unprecedented increase in the volume of trade on the largevalue interbank payment systems see table 1 which itself has resulted in a massive increase in intraday overdrafts on those systems see table 2 the central banks of the large industrialized countries concerned with the risks that this growth was creating for their banking systems have been studying the risks on interbank payment systems work that has borne fruit with the angell report bank for international settlements bis 1989 and the lamfalussy report bis 1990 both under the aegis of the bis and the padoa schioppa report european community 1992 under the aegis of the eec of particular concern is the organization of interbank large value transfer systems banks have traditionally concluded among themselves multilateral netting arrangements which settle at discrete time intervals this is the modern form of clearinghouses which still operate for small value transfers these arrangements

will digital technologies transform agriculture in developing countries mobile phones and the internet have significantly affected practically all sectors of the economy and agriculture is no exception building on a recent world bank flagship report this article introduces a concise framework for describing the main benefits from new information and communication technologies they promote greater inclusion in the broader economy raise efficiency by complementing other production factors and foster innovation by dramatically reducing transaction costs the article reviews the recent literature on corresponding technology impacts in the rural sector in developing countries digital technologies overcome information problems that hinder market access for many small scale farmers increase knowledge through new ways of providing extension services and they provide novel ways for improving agricultural supply chain management while there are many promising examples of positive impacts on rural livelihoods or digital dividends these have often not scaled up to the extent expected the main reason is that technology can always only address some but not all of the barriers faced by farmers in poorer countries

liquidity risk and policy options abstract on the basis of a liquidity management model liquidity risks defined as the probability of payment failures in a real time gross settlement rtgs payment system may either stem from liquidity management inefficiencies or insufficient cash balances i will show that penalties charged on the amount of payment failures minimise liquidity risks without interfering with the bank s technology preferences i will instead show that liquidity requirements although as effective as penalties to contain the risk of liquidity shortage may distort the bank s technology preferences and cannot stem liquidity management inefficiencies i will also show that liquidity risks within rtgs payment systems are potentially smaller because they depend more on the liquidity management efficiency than on the randomness of cash inflows and outflows

the geography and causes of food insecurity in developing countries abstract at the 1996 world food summit 186 countries made a commitment to reduce the number of chronically undernourished people by half by 2015 in order to formulate effective policies for reaching this goal a thorough understanding of the location and causes of food insecurity is needed this paper provides a broad overview of the current character of food insecurity in developing countries focusing on two questions 1 why are they food insecure and 2 why are the food insecure to answer the latter question data from 58 developing countries with high prevalences of food insecurity are employed to examine the relative importance of two of food insecurity s most basic causes national food availability and the inability of people to access food due to poverty using child malnutrition as a proxy along with descriptive controls for non food determinants of malnutrition the paper finds little correlation between national food availabilities and food insecurity the group of countries that exhibit the highest severity of food insecurity are those with high poverty and food dietary energy surpluses consistent with the view that poverty is the most widespread cause of food insecurity in the 1990s the paper concludes by considering the implications of the analysis for appropriate geographical and policy targeting to improve food security for the greatest numbers of people at the fastest pace now and into the 21st century

a framework for integrated risk management in international business treatments of risk in the international management literature largely focus on particular uncertainties to the exclusion of other interrelated uncertainties this paper develops a framework for categorizing the uncertainties faced by firms operating internationally and outlines both financial and strategic corporate risk management responses

on the equilibrium proportion of innovation and imitation abstract a game theoretic model is developed that analyses firms decisions concerning innovation and imitation it is shown that in a game of identical players an equilibrium between innovation and imitation exists this non cooperative equilibrium is globally stable if a sequential time structure is supposed however the equilibrium is not pareto efficient

precautionary reserves and the interbank market large excess reserve balances are held by banks in the u s despite the ability of large banks to closely target end of day balances close to zero we show that the friction faced by small banks to participate in the fed funds market leads to all banks holding precautionary reserves the precautionary motive for reserves can explain that small banks hold relatively large amounts of excess reserves overnight while at the same time lending large amounts to large banks small banks are large net lenders despite their reluctance to lend as large of a percentage of available balances during the day as large banks we also explain an increase in the volatility of the fed funds rate late in the day

reaping what you sow an empirical analysis of international patent harmonization abstract this paper extends analysis of the gatt uruguay round by quantifying the impact of international patent harmonization as implied by the trips agreement patent harmonization has the capacity to generate large transfers of income between countries the us being the major beneficiary developing countries are major contributors to these transfers but canada the uk and japan also make sizable contributions

the intraday liquidity management game abstract we use a game theoretical framework to analyze the intraday behavior of banks with respect to settlement of interbank claims in a real time gross settlement setting the game played by banks depends upon the intraday credit policy of the central bank and it encompasses two well known game theoretical paradigms the prisoner s dilemma and the stag hunt the former arises in a collateralized credit regime where banks have an incentive to postpone payments when daylight liquidity is costly an outcome that is socially inefficient the latter arises in a priced credit regime where the postponement of payments can be socially efficient banks are risk neutral but we show that most of the results are unaffected by risk aversion

the intraday price of money evidence from the e mid interbank market we provide empirical evidence based on tick by tick data for the e mid euro area interbank market covering 2003 and 2004 that the overnight interest rate shows a clear downward pattern throughout the operating day thus a positive hourly interest rate half basis point implicitly emerges from the intraday term structure of the overnight rate such a pattern was not detected in the mid 1990s we explain this evolution as an outcome of the recent trend toward real time settlement the estimated intraday interest rate is lower than in the united states this is due to the different cost of central bank daylight credit

political machinery did robots swing the 2016 us presidential election technological progress has created prosperity for mankind at large yet it has always created winners and losers in the labour market during the days of the british industrial revolution a sizeable share of the workforce was left worse off by almost any measure as it lost its jobs to technology the result was a series of riots against machines in similar fashion robots have recently reduced employment and wages in us labour markets building on the intuition that voters who have lost out to technology are more likely to opt for radical political change we examine if robots shaped the outcome of the 2016 us presidential election pitching technology against a host of alternative explanations including offshoring and trade exposure we document that the support for donald trump was significantly higher in local labour markets more exposed to the adoption of robots a counterfactual analysis based on our estimates shows that michigan pennsylvania and wisconsin would have swung in favour of hillary clinton if the exposure to robots had not increased in the immediate years leading up to the election leaving the democrats with a majority in the electoral college less

what determines patent value insights from the semiconductor industry abstract this paper contributes to an understanding which impacts certain patent characteristics have on the value of patent rights in an exploratory study 127 individual patents from a semiconductor company were evaluated comprehensively by technical and marketing representatives the analysis of this rare data shows that for patents used as bargaining chips novelty and inventive activity are most important difficulty of inventing around and disclosure turn out to be of limited importance due to a selection bias the influence of patent age on its value cannot be determined the results hint at a differentiated theoretical plausibility of value indicators

uncertain intellectual property conditions and knowledge appropriation strategies evidence from the genomics industry innovating science and technology based firms often endure a sustained period of uncertain intellectual property rights ipr protection before patents could be granted to their valuable knowledge assets this problem is exacerbated as firms increasingly develop their innovations or operate in countries with weak ipr institutional environments but how does ipr uncertainty affect firms strategy toward knowledge appropriation capturing of economic value from their knowledge assets and toward providing access to these knowledge assets drawing on research from the economics of science and intellectual property strategy we examine this question using a novel panel data covering 362 firms and organizations in the knowledge intensive genomics industry based on all genomics patents and matching papers from 1988 to 2005 we find that under uncertain ipr conditions firms reveal and accumulate more knowledge through open science follow on publishing but shift to knowledge appropriation through commercial science follow on patenting when ipr uncertainty is narrowed this effect is most salient when firms develop their knowledge assets or operate under strong ipr institutional regime for highly science based knowledge assets firms continue tapping into open science for access and reciprocity in knowledge acquisition from the scientific community these findings highlight the role of patent grant as a potential lever to shape firms knowledge processes and long term innovative capacity and the emergence of a concerted science strategy employed by firms

the polarization of the u s labor market this paper analyzes a marked change in the evolution of the u s wage structure over the past fifteen years divergent trends in upper tail 90 50 and lower tail 50 10 wage inequality we document that wage inequality in the top half of distribution has displayed an unchecked and rather smooth secular rise for the last 25 years since 1980 wage inequality in the bottom half of the distribution also grew rapidly from 1979 to 1987 but it has ceased growing and for some measures actually narrowed since the late 1980s furthermore we find that occupational employment growth shifted from monotonically increasing in wages education in the 1980s to a pattern of more rapid growth in jobs at the top and bottom relative to the middles of the wage education distribution in the 1990s we characterize these patterns as the u201cpolarization u201d of the u s labor market with employment polarizing into high wage and low wage jobs at the expense of middle wage work we show how a model of computerization in which computers most strongly complement the non routine abstract cognitive tasks of high wage jobs directly substitute for the routine tasks found in many traditional middle wage jobs and may have little direct impact on non routine manual tasks in relatively low wage jobs can help explain the observed polarization of the u s labor market this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

refuting two claims about virtual water trade abstract using the heckscher ohlin trade model i refute two prominent but incorrect claims on virtual water trade these claims are that virtual water trade i levels uneven water distribution and ii reduces the potential for water conflict both claims are based on an incorrect understanding of comparative advantage in the production of water intensive goods the results show that both claims only hold under certain conditions but do not necessarily follow from the heckscher ohlin trade model

intellectual property rights and foreign direct investment abstract this paper develops a product cycle model with endogenous innovation imitation and foreign direct investment fdi we use this model to determine how stronger intellectual property rights ipr protection in the south affects innovation imitation and fdi we find that stronger ipr protection keeps multinationals safer from imitation but no more so than northern firms instead the increased difficulty of imitation generates resource wasting and imitation disincentive effects that reduce both fdi and innovation the greater resources absorbed in imitation crowd out fdi reduced fdi then transmits resource scarcity in the south back to the north and consequently contracts innovation

public support to innovation and imitation in a non scale growth model abstract this paper studies technology policy within a version of jones s 1995 r d based models of economic growth journal of political economy 103 759 784 non scale r d based growth framework that incorporates imitation of foreign techniques in the model imitation is the most important source of productivity growth at the beginning of the convergence process whereas innovation dominates later on in addition the transitional dynamics of the model can account for well known empirical regularities regarding the relationship between the level of economic development and public support to technology innovation and imitation the paper shows as well that even though policy in jones type non scale models has no long run growth effects level effects can be substantial

water scarcity and food trade in the southern and eastern mediterranean countries abstract this study investigates food trade patterns in relation to water resources availability in the southern and eastern mediterranean countries semed examinations show that most of these countries have a high dependence on the import of water intensive crops cereal vegetable oil and sugar in the domestic food supply the region as a whole is marginally a net exporter of fruits and vegetables while variations are substantial across countries multi variable regression analyses show that intensification of water scarcity is an important factor in explaining the increase in food import in the semed countries during the past two decades it also finds that while gdp per capita has a strong influence on the level of food import in a country its impact on changes in the import during the same period is rather modest no significant relationship is found between the trade of fruits and vegetables and water resources availability the projection on food import with respect to the decline in per capita water resources availability results in an increase of 40 39 and 14 respectively for cereal vegetable oil and sugar by 2020 in the region holding other factors constant the european union eu is the major food trade partner of the semed countries except for cereal about 70 of the fruit export and 55 of the vegetable export of the region currently go to the eu market expanding the export of fruits and vegetables is conducive to improving the value of water use in the semed countries however the expansion is constrained partly by the barriers in the destination markets notably the eu

irreversible investment and r d spillovers in a dynamic duopoly investments in new production processes usually involve a significant amount of rd an increase in uncertainty delaying the equilibrium calls for higher subsidization rates third numerical simulations show that the spillover reduces the difference between the leader s and the follower s maximum value functions accordingly our model can help generate realistic market betas

electricity restructuring greenhouse gas emissions efficiency and employment reallocation abstract this paper focuses on demonstrating the feedback relationships between greenhouse gas emissions efficiency in the electricity sector and employment reallocation with a consideration of the effects of electricity restructuring and socio demographic factors we postulate the construction information manufacturing utilities and mining sectors as a group of emissions efficiency related industries and identify the mutual relationships the emissions efficiency positively influences the job shares of these industries except mining whereas increased employment in these industries has a negative effect on the emissions efficiency electricity restructuring has a positive effect on overall employment however it does not have a statistically significant effect on the emissions efficiency additionally population aging and educational attainment have positive effects on the emissions efficiency and a higher proportion of rental households has a negative influence on it increases in renewable energy and nuclear energy generation have elastic effects on enhancing emissions efficiency

liquidity and risk management firms and financial institutions are best viewed as ongoing entities whose project completion may require renewed injections of liquidity this paper proposes a contract theoretic framework integrating three dimensions of corporate financing and prudential regulation a liquidity management b risk management and c capital structure it concludes with a preliminary assessment of recent regulatory approaches to the treatment of market risk

entry and patenting in the software industry to what extent are firms kept out of a market by patents covering related technologies do patents held by potential entrants make it easier to enter markets we estimate the empirical relationship between market entry and patents for 27 narrowly defined categories of software products during the period 1990 2004 controlling for demand market structure average patent quality and other factors we find that a 10 increase in the number of patents relevant to market reduces the rate of entry by 3 8 and this relationship intensified following expansions in the patentability of software in the mid 1990s however potential entrants with patent applications relevant to a market are more likely to enter it finally patents appear to substitute for complementary assets in the entry process because patents have both greater entry deterring and entry promoting effects for firms without prior experience in other markets this paper was accepted by bruno cassiman business strategy

r d and employment an application of the lsdvc estimator using european microdata abstract the job creation effect of business r d is tested applying the dynamic lsdvc estimator to a longitudinal database covering 677 european companies over the period 1990 2008 job creation is detected in services and high tech manufacturing but not in traditional sectors

transitional dynamics in an r d based growth model with imitation comparing its predictions to the data abstract employing cross country data this paper evaluates the transitional dynamics predictions of a non scale growth model of endogenous technology innovation and imitation we show that unlike the neoclassical growth framework the transitional dynamics of the rd 1995 quartely journal of economics 110 641 680 with the importance of technology transfer

schumpeterian dynamics an evolutionary model of innovation and imitation abstract this paper develops a simple evolutionary model of innovation and imitation it analyzes how dynamic interactions between equilibrating force of imitation and disequilibrating force of innovation mold the evolutionary pattern of an industry s state of technology and shows that in this schumpeterian world the industry will never approach a neoclassical equilibrium with perfect knowlwdge even in the long run the paper also examines the steady state efficiency distribution of firms that characterizes the industry s long run and obtains some comparative dynamics results

time use during the great recession using data from the american time use survey between 2003 and 2010 we document that home production absorbs roughly 30 percent of foregone market work hours at business cycle frequencies leisure absorbs roughly 50 percent of foregone market work hours with sleeping and television watching accounting for most of this increase we document significant increases in time spent on shopping child care education and health job search absorbs between 2 and 6 percent of foregone market work hours we discuss the implications of our results for business cycle models with home production and non separable preferences jel codes d13 e32 j22

the effects of double counting and expensing on the measured returns to r d this article focuses on the effects of double counting and expensing on the measured returns to r d the contribution of research and development r d to economic growth has been measured in two general ways the first is to compute total factor productivity in a growth accounting framework and to attribute this residual growth to r d the prevailing view is that in the presence of double counting the measured contribution of r d represents the return above and beyond the normal remuneration to traditional capital author demonstrate that this excess returns interpretation eri is essentially correct in the growth accounting framework and that the resulting bias in the measured contribution of r d to growth is large in postwar u s manufacturing the measured residual is biased downward by as much as 30 the expensing bias is downward and reinforces the excess returns bias in this case and the total bias is large in both the growth accounting and econometric contexts the magnitude of the biases may vary across samples and over time there is simply no substitute for properly measured variables

robotization and labour dislocation in the manufacturing sectors of oecd countries a panel var approach robots are the most important innovation which has affected the production process in the last three decades thanks to the latest advances in technology they have been able to perform an ever inc

the globalization of virtual water flows explaining trade patterns of a scarce resource abstract water availability is paramount for security and development yet many countries suffer from water scarcity virtual water trade or trade in water embedded agricultural commodities has been considered a means for countries to overcome water deficits provided they can import food rather than produce locally despite a rich literature research on the subject has not reached a consensus on whether virtual water trade is actually driven by relative water endowment differentials e g countries seeking to alleviate pressure on their own resources or by comparative advantage in water utilization e g countries using their most abundant and cheap factors of production understanding what drives virtual water trade would support water management policies in targeting the roots of water depletion excessive use due to lack of other available inputs and bad water management due to absence of water use regulation using panel data of bilateral virtual water trade flows from 1994 to 2007 applied to a gravity model we first demonstrate that arid countries do resort to trade as a means to alleviate water scarcity second we demonstrate that there is much inefficiency in water use in some countries where other agricultural inputs land labor are available and cheap given the increased urgency related to global water scarcity our results suggest how agricultural production and trade could help countries preserve and better use precious water resources

payment obligations reserve requirements and the demand for central bank balances we develop a model in which a bank s demand for reserves depends on the joint distribution of transactions reserve requirements and the interest rate by devoting resources to its liquidity management a bank can save on costly reserves required to settle its payments on time we test the model with data from the largest banks in the swiss interbank clearing system we find that the turnover ratio the speed with which a bank turns over its reserves in the payment system depends largely on the aggregate value of its payments we also find that reserve requirements impose a highly uneven burden on the banks

technology and the labour market the assessment this article reviews the evidence on how technology will affect labour markets in advanced democracies over the next 10 15 years in addition to assessing evidence on the impact of technology on the aggregate number of jobs we take a wider view to consider how the digital revolution will affect the quality and composition of jobs how and where we work and whether labour is supplied as part of a larger firm or as a self employed micro entrepreneur this assessment further aims to situate the papers covered in this issue of the oxford review of policy within the broader literature

water scarcity and food import a case study for southern mediterranean countries abstract taking six southern mediterranean countries as a case study this paper addresses the water food challenges facing water scarce countries and the implications for the world food economy by accounting the volume of virtual water embedded in food imports into the countries concerned a close relationship between water endowment and food import dependence is elaborated a projection of the cereal demand suggests an increment of 40 60 percentage points in these countries by 2020 above their 1998 99 levels raising the aggregate volume of cereal imports to around 40 million tons the analysis also finds that the trend of shifting from staple grain crops to higher value cash crops was weak during the past two decades a deteriorating trade deficit for both cereal and noncereal agricultural products was evident in almost all the countries suggesting a rigid and persistent constraint of water scarcity on overall agricultural development the results of this case study highlight two important points a food imports are imperative for compensating water resource deficiency b water scarcity related food imports will continue to expand and impose increasing impacts on the global food economy

serial correlation and the fixed effects model this paper generalizes the durbin watson type statistics to test the ols residuals from the fixed effects model for serial independence also generalized are the tests proposed by sargan and bhargava for the hypothesis that the residuals form a random walk a method for efficient estimation of the parameters is also developed finally an earnings function is estimated using the michigan survey of income dynamics in order to illustrate the uses of the tests and the estimation procedures developed in this paper

extrinsic psychosocial stressors and workers productivity impact of employee age and industry experience this paper aims to explore the impact of employee age and industrial experience on extrinsic psychosocial stressors that may influence the productivity of workers using an integrated theoretical a

the history of technological anxiety and the future of economic growth is this time different technology is widely considered the main source of economic progress but it has also generated cultural anxiety throughout history the developed world is now suffering from another bout of such angst anxieties over technology can take on several forms and we focus on three of the most prominent concerns first there is the concern that technological progress will cause widespread substitution of machines for labor which in turn could lead to technological unemployment and a further increase in inequality in the short run even if the long run effects are beneficial second there has been anxiety over the moral implications of technological process for human welfare broadly defined while during the industrial revolution the worry was about the dehumanizing effects of work in modern times perhaps the greater fear is a world where the elimination of work itself is the source of dehumanization a third concern cuts in the opposite direction suggesting that the epoch of major technological progress is behind us understanding the history of technological anxiety provides perspective on whether this time is truly different we consider the role of these three anxieties among economists primarily focusing on the historical period from the late 18th to the early 20th century and then compare the historical and current manifestations of these three concerns

an empirical analysis of comparative advantage in egyptian agriculture egyptian comparative advantage in each of 18 agricultural commodities is assessed for a number of years using both the domestic resource coefficient and net social profitability it is found that egypt enjoys a comparative advantage in most cash crops but a comparative disadvantage in many grains and pulses the results suggest that foreign exchange could be earned more efficiently by altering relative incentives in favour of export oriented crops

what drives labor market polarization in advanced countries the role of china and technology this article explores the effects of offshoring technology and chinese import competition on labor market polarization in european countries we find that polarization occurs mostly as a result of polarization within individual industries while the reallocation of employment away from less polarized industries toward more highly polarized industries contributed only about one third of the total change we find that both technological change and chinese net import competition contributed to labor market polarization but that they did so in distinct ways in european manufacturing industries ict adoption explains a third of within industry polarization while chinese net import competition contributed to a much smaller extent the process of between industry polarization is driven by widespread deindustrialization and servitization in developed countries we find that chinese net import competition explains about a fifth of the employment decline in lowly polarized manufacturing industries and was thus an important driver of the reallocation of labor within economies away from lowly polarized manufacturing industries we present tentative evidence that employment grew faster in initially highly polarized service industries moreover these industries appear unaffected by their indirect input output exposure to chinese net import competition while this was not the case for initially lowly polarized service industries while polarization patterns in different european labor markets show considerable heterogeneity labor market institutions seem to be insufficient to explain these cross country differences

research and development and labour productivity do high tech firms exhibit labour or capital saving technical change abstractemployment and output in the advanced technology sectors have generally exhibited above average growth for more than two decades while this industry accounts for a relatively small share o

people and machines a look at the evolving relationship between capital and skill in manufacturing 1860 1930 using immigration shocks abstract this paper estimates the elasticity of substitution between capital and skill in manufacturing using immigration induced variation in skill mix across u s counties between 1860 and 1930

illiquidity component of credit risk we describe and contrast three dierent measures of an institu tion s credit risk insolvency risk is the conditional probability of default due to deterioration of asset quality if there is no run by short term creditors total credit risk is the unconditional probability of default either because of a short term creditor run or long run asset insolvency illiquidity risk is the dierence between the two i e the probability of a default due to a run when the institution would otherwise have been solvent we discuss how the three kinds of risk vary with balance sheet composition we provide a formula for illiquidity risk and show that it is i decreasing in the liquidity ratio the ratio of realizable cash on the balance sheet to short term liabilities ii increasing in the outside option ratio a measure of the opportunity cost of the funds used to roll over short term liabil ities and iii increasing in the fundamental risk ratio a measure of ex post variance of the asset portfolio

top incomes in the long run of history a recent literature has constructed top income shares time series over the long run for more than twenty countries using income tax statistics top incomes represent a small share of the population but a very significant share of total income and total taxes paid hence aggregate economic growth per capita and gini inequality indexes are sensitive to excluding or including top incomes we discuss the estimation methods and issues that arise when constructing top income share series including income definition and comparability over time and across countries tax avoidance and tax evasion we provide a summary of the key empirical findings most countries experience a dramatic drop in top income shares in the first part of the twentieth century in general due to shocks to top capital incomes during the wars and depression shocks top income shares do not recover in the immediate postwar decades however over the last thirty years top income shares have increased substantially in english speaking countries and in india and china but not in continental european countries or japan this increase is due in part to an unprecedented surge in top wage incomes as a result wage income comprises a larger fraction of top incomes than in the past finally we discuss the theoretical and empirical models that have been proposed to account for the facts and the main questions that remain open

imitation costs and patents an empirical study it has long been recognised that the costs of imitating new products have an important effect on the incentives for innovation in a market economy as arrow i962 and others have pointed out if firms can imitate an innovation at a cost that is substantially below the cost to the innovator of developing the innovation there may be little or no incentive for the innovator to carry out the innovation in their discussions of the innovation process economists frequently have called attention to the major role played by the costs of imitation but there has been little or no attempt to measure these costs to test various hypotheses concerning the factors influencing them or to estimate their effects in this paper we report some findings of what seems to be the first study of this topic in addition we present data regarding the effects of patents on imitation costs and on the rate of innovation

virtual land use and agricultural trade estimating environmental and socio economic impacts abstract liberalization has caused an increase in the global trade of goods and services in particular the value and physical volume of agricultural goods traded have largely increased as the environmental and social consequences of trade are complex they are rarely included in the national and international agricultural policies one reason is that there is a lack of concepts and methods for assessing the environmental and social impacts of trade policies in this paper we develop a method for quantifying and assessing the land use hidden in the export and import of agricultural goods for the case of switzerland for our analysis we focus on arable crops the first methodological step of our research illustrates the spatial relationship of switzerland with countries all over the world through the import and export of land use for arable crops the second step links this spatial dimension with a qualitative assessment of the environmental and socio economic impacts of agricultural land use we applied the method to the case of wheat cultivation within switzerland and import to switzerland the major problem we were confronted with was the availability of data which had both to be reliable and available for the countries wheat is imported from the results show that the calculation of land use is credible in spite of the problems related with data availability the assessment results for each indicator are in agreement with the current situation in the respective countries in addition the aggregation seems to accurately reflect the countries agricultural polices the developed method is used to estimate the overall environmental and socio economic impacts of an increase in wheat imports to switzerland we argue that this method could be applied for anticipating potential impacts of trade agreements still further research is required for fine tuning of the utility functions including a weighting procedure in the aggregation procedure for practical applications important aspects like water shortage should enlarge our limited set of indicators in addition the average impact on a country level was assessed to refine that different agricultural systems ranging from intensive to extensive to organic should be considered beyond our scope was to analyze impacts due to other life cycle stages than the agricultural production for informed decision however information on the whole life cycle of agricultural products is required

the race between man and machine implications of technology for growth factor shares and employment we examine the concerns that new technologies will render labor redundant in a framework in which tasks previously performed by labor can be automated and new versions of existing tasks in which labor has a comparative advantage can be created in a static version where capital is fixed and technology is exogenous automation reduces employment and the labor share and may even reduce wages while the creation of new tasks has the opposite effects our full model endogenizes capital accumulation and the direction of research towards automation and the creation of new tasks if the long run rental rate of capital relative to the wage is sufficiently low the long run equilibrium involves automation of all tasks otherwise there exists a stable balanced growth path in which the two types of innovations go hand in hand stability is a consequence of the fact that automation reduces the cost of producing using labor and thus discourages further automation and encourages the creation of new tasks in an extension with heterogeneous skills we show that inequality increases during transitions driven both by faster automation and introduction of new tasks and characterize the conditions under which inequality is increasing or stable in the long run

job polarization job tasks and the role of firms using detailed swedish matched employer employee data i show evidence of within firm job polarization applying a decomposition framework i find that both within firm and between firm components are important for overall job polarization results also indicate that the degree of routineness is the most important explanation for the observed within firm pattern bringing the analysis down to the firm level seems to confirm the important role played by routine biased technological change

welfare optimal patent royalties when imitation is costly we identify welfare optimal patent royalties in a model of costly imitation entry and imperfect competition when the social planner may impose a compulsory license optimal royalties either blockade imitation facilitating unregulated monopoly or yield an aggregate zero profit efficient duopoly when duopoly is optimal the optimal per unit royalty pins the equilibrium price at the aggregate average cost and the optimal fixed royalty shifts surplus so the patentee and imitator break even efficient duopoly yields higher welfare than monopoly for sufficiently low invention cost and may also yield higher welfare than a prize system interestingly royalty payments may be negative because of this efficient duopoly may not be feasible if the planner must instead direct the courts to use such royalties

job polarization an historical perspective this paper uses historical labour market data for belgium for the period 1846 2011 to illustrate how the employment impacts of the ongoing digital revolution after 1980 compare to those of the second industrial revolution before 1980 our analyses show that the period 1846 1947 was characterized by economy wide skill upgrading due to an increase in the demand for skilled relative to unskilled workers because of skill biased technological change sbtc the period 1947 81 is characterized by particularly high labour market turbulence in part due to a gradual switch from economy wide skill upgrading to job polarization consequently the impact of the ongoing digital revolution on labour markets after 1980 is not uniquely characterized by exceptionally high labour market turbulence but by the nature of changes in the composition of jobs namely a process of job polarization to explain job polarization the paper discusses the hypothesis of routine biased technological change rbtc that has recently emerged in the academic literature

coordination failures and the lender of last resort was bagehot right after all the classical doctrine of the lender of last resort lolr elaborated by bagehot 1873 asserts that the central bank should lend to illiquid but solvent banks under certain conditions several authors have argued that this view is now obsolete in modern interbank markets a solvent bank cannot be illiquid this paper provides a possible theoretical foundation for rescuing bagehot s view our theory does not rely on the multiplicity of equilibria that arises in classical models of bank runs we built a model of banks liquidity crises that possesses a unique bayesian equilibrium in this equilibrium there is a positive probability that a solvent bank cannot find liquidity assistance in the market we derive policy implications about banking regulation solvency and liquidity ratios and interventions of the lender of last resort furthermore we find that public bailout and private bail in involvement are complementary in implementing the incentive efficient solution and that bagehot s lender of last resort facility must work together with institutions providing prompt corrective action and orderly failure resolution finally we derive similar implications for an international lender of last resort ilolr jel g21 g28

patent protection and r d with endogenous market structure in a model with endogenous number of innovating firms we show that whether patent protection increases r d investment is ambiguous and depends on the market demand function and the cost of r d if the market size increases with number of firms patent protection reduces r d investment if the cost of r d is sufficiently high and higher product differentiation increases the possibility of lower r d investment under patent protection if the market size does not increase with number of firms patent protection never reduces r d investment we find that welfare is lower under patent protection than under no patent protection

are virtual water flows in spanish grain trade consistent with relative water scarcity abstract virtual water adds a new dimension to international trade and brings along a new perspective about water scarcity and water resource management most virtual water literature has focused on quantifying virtual water flows and on its application to ensure water and food security nevertheless the analysis of the potential gains from international trade at least from a water resources perspective needs to take into account both spatial and temporal variations of blue groundwater and stream flow and green soil moisture water as well as the socioeconomic and policy conditions this paper evaluates whether spanish international trade with grains is consistent with relative water scarcity for this purpose the study estimates the volume and economic value of virtual water flow through international grain trade for the period 1997 2005 which includes 3 years with different rainfall levels the calculations show that spain is a net virtual water importer through international grain trade the volume of net virtual water imports amounts to 3420 4383 and 8415 million m 3 in wet 1997 medium 1999 and dry 2005 years respectively valuing blue water at its shadow price or scarcity value blue water exports oscillate between 0 7 and 34 2 million euros for a wet and dry year respectively overall grain trade is apparently consistent with relative water scarcity as net imports increase in dry years however the evolution of grain exports expressed as a variation in quantity and volume does not match the variations in resource scarcity a disaggregated crop analysis reveals that there are other factors such as quality product specialization or the demand for a standardized product which also influence trade decisions and are not included in the notion of virtual water these facts among others can therefore create potential distortions in the application of virtual water to the analysis of specific trade patterns nevertheless from a water resources perspective virtual water can bring important insights across countries for improving water and land management globally fostering adaptation strategies to climate change and to transboundary resource management

the intraday interest rate under a liquidity crisis the case of august 2007 by analyzing high frequency data for the european interbank market we show that the intraday interest rate implicitly defined by the term structure of the on rate jumped by more than ten times at the outset of the financial turmoil in august 2007 resulting in an inefficiency of the money market this took place despite the provision of unlimited free daylight overdrafts by the ecb on a collateralized basis we suggest that such result may be attributed to an increase of the liquidity premium and of the cost of collateral

creative differences measuring creative economy employment in the united states and the uk this paper compares the creative economies of the us and the uk regions and nations using high quality administrative microdata spanning the period 2011 13 the creative industries are highly urban

the declining fortunes of the young since 2000 abstract we document that successive cohorts of college and post college degree graduates experienced an increase in the probability of obtaining cognitive jobs both at the start of their careers and with time in the labor market in the 1990s however this pattern reversed for cohorts entering after 2000 profiles of the proportion of a cohort in cognitive occupations since school completion fall and become flatter with successive cohorts since cohort wage profiles display a similar pattern these findings appear to fit with a strong increase in demand for cognitive tasks in the 1990s followed by a decline in the 2000s

market research and innovation strategy in a duopoly we model a duopoly in which ex ante identical firms must decide where to direct their innovation efforts the firms face market uncertainty about consumers preferences for innovation on two product attributes and technology uncertainty about the success of their research and development r d investments firms can conduct costly market research before setting r d strategy we find that the value of market information to a firm depends on whether its rival is expected to obtain this information in equilibrium consequently one firm may forgo market research even though its rival conducts such research and learns the true state of demand we examine both vertical and horizontal demand structures with vertical preferences firms are a priori uncertain about which attribute all consumers will value more in this case a firm that conducts market research always attempts innovation on the attribute it discovers that consumers prefer and expends more on r d than a rival that has not conducted market research with horizontal preferences distinct segments exist each caring about innovation on only one attribute and firms are a priori uncertain how many consumers each segment contains in this case a firm that conducts market research may follow a niche strategy and attempt innovation to serve the smaller segment to avoid intense price competition for the larger segment a firm that conducts market research may therefore invest less in r d and earn lower postlaunch profits than a rival that has forgone such research

r d determinants accounting for the differences between research and development the determinants of r d are an important topic of innovation studies the classical schumpeterian hypotheses about the influence of size and market power have been complemented with the role played by industry determinants such as demand pull technological opportunity and appropriability in determining r d investments however r d has always been considered as a whole even though research and development activities differ in many aspects we take advantage of a new panel database of innovative spanish firms pitec to distinguish between research and development efforts of firms we analyze the differentiated role played by traditional r d determinants in driving research and development results show that demand pull and appropriability have a higher effect on development while technological opportunity is more influential for research differences are statistically significant important in magnitude and robust to the use of different indicators for demand pull technological opportunity and appropriability and to several robustness checks

interbank lending and systemic risk systemic risk refers to the propagation of a bank s economic distress to other economic agents linked to that bank through financial transactions banking authorities often prevent systemic risk through an implicit insurance of interbank claims or by reducing interbank transactions and centralizing banks liquidity management this paper investigates whether the flexability afforded by decentralized bank interactions can be preserved while protecting the central banks from the necessity of conducting undesired rescue operations it develops a model in which decentralized interbank leading is motivated by peer monitoring in this context the paper derives the optimal prudential rules and in particular looks at the impact of interbank monitoring on the solvency and liquidity ratios of borrowing and lending banks last it provides conditions which a too big to fail policy is or is not justified and studies the possibility of propagation of a bank s liquidity shock throughout the financial system copyright 1996 by ohio state university press

the growing importance of social skills in the labor market the labor market increasingly rewards social skills between 1980 and 2012 jobs requiring high levels of social interaction grew by nearly 12 percentage points as a share of the u s labor force math intensive but less social jobs including many stem occupations shrank by 3 3 percentage points over the same period employment and wage growth were particularly strong for jobs requiring high levels of both math skill and social skills to understand these patterns i develop a model of team production where workers trade tasks to exploit their comparative advantage in the model social skills reduce coordination costs allowing workers to specialize and work together more efficiently the model generates predictions about sorting and the relative returns to skill across occupations which i investigate using data from the nlsy79 and the nlsy97 using a comparable set of skill measures and covariates across survey waves i find that the labor market return to social skills was much greater in the 2000s than in the mid 1980s and 1990s

the international economics of intellectual property right protection a welfare theoretic trade policy analysis abstract this paper provides an analytical construct for examining the trade policy effects of greater intellectual property protection in technology importing countries it is shown that two types of conflict are likely to arise between net technology importers and exporters the first relates to the level of protection with importers preferring a low level and exporters a high one the second conflict hitherto unexplored relates to the manner of protection with importers likely to prefer discriminatory regimes favoring local r d creation whereas exporters would prefer nondiscriminatory protection in importing countries

the social imagination needed for an innovation led recovery in response to critical comments by bengt ake lundvall and edward steinmueller i argue that we need to understand why the economic crisis has been so long so deep and so wide even though it originated in the financial sector a recovery has not yet materialised because existing and potential technological opportunities have not been exploited an innovation based recovery will need to take advantage of these opportunities and will also require a favourable institutional environment pro active public intervention in science and technology will additionally be required combined with new social imagination

should we fear the robot revolution the correct answer is yes abstract advances in artificial intelligence and robotics may be leading to a new industrial revolution this paper presents a model with the minimum necessary features to analyze the implications for inequality and output two assumptions are key robot capital is distinct from traditional capital in its degree of substitutability with human labor and only capitalists and skilled workers save we analyze a range of variants that reflect widely different views of how automation may transform the labor market our main results are surprisingly robust automation is good for growth and bad for equality in the benchmark model real wages fall in the short run and eventually rise but eventually can easily take generations

computing productivity firm level evidence we explore the effect of computerization on productivity and output growth using data from 527 large us firms over 1987 1994 we find that computerization makes a contribution to measured productivity and output growth in the short term using one year differences that is consistent with normal returns to computer investments however the productivity and output contributions associated with computerization are up to five times greater over long periods using five to seven year differences the results suggest that the observed contribution of computerization is accompanied by relatively large and time consuming investments in complementary inputs such as organizational capital that may be omitted in conventional calculations of productivity the large long run contribution of computers and their associated complements that we uncover may partially explain the subsequent investment surge in computers in the late 1990s

uncertainty spillovers and cooperative r d abstract this paper extends the literature on cooperative r d in an oligopoly with spillovers the model has three new features it introduces uncertainty focuses on spillover of innovation instead of effort spillover and offers a new definition of the research joint venture rjv the rjv is an arrangement to coordinate r d efforts and also to share the innovation firms form an rjv only if the innovation raises flow industry profit but independently of the speed of spillovers and the degree of uncertainty the model is robust when we allow for licensing the single lab endogenous spillovers and r d effort spillovers

getting competition down to a science the effects of technological competition on firms scientific publications prior research about the interaction between private firms and the scientific community has largely viewed firms articles in scientific publications as a means to improve research and development productivity by encouraging their researchers to publish scientific papers firms can maintain linkages with the scientific community attract talent and access external knowledge on which they can build to create innovations this paper in contrast emphasizes the role of scientific publications in firms battles for market dominance and examines how competitive conditions shape firms propensities to publish scientific articles about their innovations focusing on the context of pharmaceutical drugs we develop propositions about how the competition that one drug faces from similar drugs and potential substitutes influences the innovating firm s inclination to publish articles in the top medical journals about that drug to facilitate its assessment by the u s food and drug administration and the medical community we also propose that scientific articles about competing drugs compel a firm to highlight its own drug in scientific papers to assert the drug s uniqueness and mitigate the threat of substitution whereas prior research has elucidated how science contributes to enhancing firms competence at creating innovations which is critical to their ability to compete in technology intensive environments this paper draws attention to how competition in turn permeates into the scientific arena creating inducements for firms to use scientific publications to position their innovations in the marketplace

bank liquidity interbank markets and monetary policy a major lesson of the recent financial crisis is that the interbank lending market is crucial for banks facing large uncertainty regarding their liquidity needs this paper studies the efficiency of the interbank lending market in allocating funds we consider two different types of liquidity shocks leading to di erent implications for optimal policy by the central bank we show that when confronted with a distribu tional liquidity shock crisis that causes a large disparity in the liquidity held among banks the central bank should lower the interbank rate this view implies that the traditional tenet prescribing the separation between prudential regulation and mon etary policy should be abandoned in addition we show that during an aggregate liquidity crisis central banks should manage the aggregate volume of liquidity two di erent instruments interest rates and liquidity injection are therefore required to cope with the two di erent types of liquidity shocks finally we show that failure to cut interest rates during a crisis erodes financial stability by increasing the risk of bank runs