heterogeneous information arrivals and return volatility dynamics uncovering the long run in high frequency returns recent empirical evidence suggests that the interdaily volatility clustering for most speculative returns are best characterized by a slowly mean reverting fractionally integrated process meanwhile much shorter lived volatility dynamics are typically observed with high frequency intradaily returns the present article demonstrates that by interpreting the volatility as a mixture of numerous heterogeneous short run information arrivals the observed volatility process may exhibit long run dependence as such the long memory characteristics constitute an intrinsic feature of the return generating process rather than the manifestation of occasional structural shifts these ideas are confirmed by our analysis of a one year time series of fiveminute deutschemark u s dollar exchange rates among the most puzzling issues is the behavior of volatility while the general properties of volatility remain elusive perhaps the most intriguing feature revealed by empirical work on volatility is its long persistence such behavior has sparked a search almost akin to that for the holy grail for the perfect garch model but the underlying question of why such volatility persistence endures remains unanswered we conjecture that the ability to analyze higher frequency data may be particularly useful in pursuing this issue goodhart and o hara 1997 the pronounced volatility clustering is arguably one of the most striking features of financial price series recorded at daily or weekly intervals and a large body of literature seeking to characterize this aspect of speculative returns has emerged over the past decade 1 at the same time convincing theoretical explanations for the underlying sources of long run persistence in volatility remain elusive the recent advent of comprehensive high frequency andersen is from the j l kellogg graduate school of management of northwestern university bollerslev is from the university of virginia and is a research associate at the national bureau of economic research we gratefully acknowledge the financial support provided by a research grant from the institute for quantitative research in finance the q group special thanks are due to olsen and associates for making the intradaily exchange rate quotes and reuter s news tape available we have received valuable comments from wake epps clive w j granger stephen f gray j huston mcculloch as well as seminar participants at the december 1996 triangle econometrics workshop the 1997 afa meetings in new orleans academia sinica the wharton school usc and georgetown and york universities we remain fully responsible for the content 1 see bollerslev chou and kroner 1992 for a survey of this literature using arch type

discount rate changes stock market returns volatility and trading volume evidence from intraday data and implications for market efficiency we examine the eaect of discount rate changes on stock market returns volatility and trading volume using intraday data equity returns generally respond negatively and significantly to the unexpected announcements however the eaect of expected changes on equity returns is insignificant furthermore our results indicate that equity prices respond to announcements within the trading period hour after the information release an indication of a return reversal is too small to cover the full transaction costs unexpected discount rate changes also contribute to higher market volatility although the volatility is short lived similarly unexpected changes in discount rates induce larger trading volume while expected changes do not abnormal trading volume occurs only in period t our results also support the notion that unexpected changes in the discount rates impact market returns irrespective of the federal reserve operating procedures 1999 elsevier science b v all rights reserved

evaluating income streams a decision analysis approach most important decision problems virtually all capital investiments and planning situations involve risky cash flows with uncertainties that are resolved over time in most of these problems the decision maker has access to financial markets and may borrow and lend to smooth consumption over time yet because of the difficulty of incorporating these borrowing and lending decisions into the evaluation models these opportunities are rarely explicitly modeled in decision and risk analyses of these investments in this paper we study the errors induced by failing to account for these borrowing and lending decisions and we develop extensions to the standard decision and risk analysis procedures that given certain market and preference assumptions take these borrowing and lending opportunities into account without overburdening the evaluation models

a mismatch made in heaven a hedonic analysis of overeducation and undereducation in this paper a hedonic pairing process is modeled in which some workers may be overeducated or undereducated as an equilibrium outcome of a dynamic labor market undereducated workers are those whose abilities and training permit them to move into a job with higher qualifications whereas overeducated workers are highly qualified workers who select into lower skill entry level jobs that provide the training or signal necessary for promotion the empirical model shows that these pairing types cannot be directly identified in a cross section since all workers are exactly educated during a portion of their career however pairing types may be imputed by comparing predicted and observed qualifications of the worker and predicted and observed requirements of the firm using a rich cross section and a panel of british working age males to identify the pairing types we confirm the predicted career development patterns with regard to on the job training promotion and wages

trading halts and market activity an analysis of volume at the open and the close this paper analyzes how the daily opening and closing of financial markets affect trading volume we model the desire to trade at the beginning and end of the day as a function of overnight return volatility nyse data from 1933 88 indicate that closing volume is positively related to expected overnight volatility while volume at the open is positively related to both expected and unexpected volatility from the previous night we interpret the symmetric response of trading at the open and the close to expected volatility as being due to investor heterogeneities in the ability to bear risk when the market is closed this desire of investors to trade prior to market closings indicates a cost of mandating marketwide circuit breakers

round the clock market efficiency and home bias evidence from the international japanese government bonds futures markets abstract this paper examines how information is processed between almost identical international futures markets london liffe and tokyo tse jgb futures in these markets variations in open to open changes are virtually the same as those of close to close changes suggesting that information is transmitted efficiently across markets with small opening pricing errors the overall results confirm market efficiency around the clock yet the intraday u shaped patterns in volume volatility of the london jgb futures suggest home bias in international investments indicating a less global view of trading than expected specifically at the liffe open london investors rush to rebalance portfolios instead of doing so at the tse close which is only one hour before the liffe opens

a theory of the dynamics of security returns around market closures numerous empirical studies document patterns in the means and variances of security returns measured over periods that are punctuated by market closures this article develops a multiperiod model in which closures delay the resolution of uncertainty thereby redistributing risk across time and agents since agents are risk averse in the model this redistribution affects the equilibrium price altering risk premia liquidity costs and the degree of informational asymmetry as a consequence closures alter both the means and variances of returns the article demonstrates that closures can generate a variety of mean and variance effects including those that mirror the empirical phenomena numerous empirical studies of security returns have documented patterns in both the mean and the variance of returns interestingly most of these patterns are punctuated by periods in which the market is regularly closed for example the variance of returns from the market close to the market opening is much less than the variance from open to close similarly mean returns over weekends are abnormally low in fact significantly negative relative to daily mean returns during the trading week within a trading day return variances are u shaped with peaks occurring immediately after the market opens and just before it closes 2 further french and roll 1986 examine the variance of tuesday close to thursday close returns during a period in which the market was closed on wednesdays and show that this variance is only slightly greater than half the tuesday close to thursday close variance when the market was open on wednesdays 3 one explanation for the differences in the overnight and trading day variances is that market hours mostly coincide with business hours when

measuring over education previous work on over education has assumed homogeneity of workers and jobs relaxing these assumptions we find that over educated workers have lower education credentials than matched graduates among the over educated graduates we distinguish between the apparently over educated workers who have similar unobserved skills as matched graduates and the genuinely over educated workers who have a much lower skill endowment over education is associated with a pay penalty of 5 11 for apparently over educated workers compared with matched graduates and of 22 26 for the genuinely over educated over education originates from the lack of skills of graduates this should be taken into consideration in the current debate on the future of higher education in the uk

educational mismatch and promotions to managerial positions a test of the career mobility theory abstractcareer mobility theory suggests that given a certain occupation schooling improves upward mobility in terms of promotion and wage growth we are the first to test the implications of this theory for over and undereducation by means of direct information about promotions to managerial positions using german administrative data entailing an employer reported and hence objective measure of educational requirements we show that overeducated workers are indeed more likely to be promoted and that this career mobility advantage is more pronounced in the early stages of their working lives by contrast undereducated workers are less likely to be promoted to managerial positions moreover in terms of wage growth while overeducated workers benefit more undereducated workers benefit less from promotions than their well matched educational peers altogether these findings strongly support the career mobility theory furthermore by differentiating between internal and external promotions we prov

mismatch in the spanish labor market overeducation the objective of this article is to explain the job match which is assessed by comparing attained education and job required education as reported by workers we frame our empirical work according to the occupational mobility theory using a cross section of workers from a representative survey of the spanish labor force we consider overeducated workers to be those who report that the level of education their jobs require is below the level of education they have attained our results indicate that overeducated workers have less experience decreased on thejob training and higher turnover than other comparable workers we also observe an improvement in the job match over age and mobility

a transactions data analysis of the variability of common stock returns during 1980 1984 abstract using transactions data for a large sample of nyse stocks for six months in 1971 1972 and calendar year 1982 wood mcinish and ord 1985 wmo show that the graph of the variability of index returns across days against time of day has a crude u shaped pattern this study demonstrates that relatively high variability of returns at the beginning and end of the trading day also occurs during calendar years 1980 1981 1983 and 1984 in addition the variability of intra minute returns across stocks is shown to have a crude u shaped pattern when plotted against time of day a model is developed and tested that explains this pattern of variability of intra minute returns in terms of variability of market returns over the trading day the empirical results are consistent with this explanation

intradaily price volume adjustments of nyse stocks to unexpected earnings the speed and path of adjustment in stocks to the degree of earnings surprise in their quarterly announcements are studied using price volume transactions data a differential price adjustment process was observed with stocks having large positive earnings surprises experiencing a faster adjustment compared with those stocks with negative earnings surprises volume transaction frequency and size were found to be directly related to the absolute degree of surprise but very favorable earnings surprise stocks experienced initially a large number of smaller trades while stocks with large unfavorable earnings surprises had relatively fewer transactions but higher volume per trade the stock market s microstructure has received increasing attention from researchers especially from an empirical perspective as transaction data on prices and volume have become more readily available 1 an important subset of this research has been the study of stock price adjustments to significant news events specifically publicly announced information with economic content should be quickly reflected in prices in an unbiased manner this paper contains a study of the intradaily adjustment in stocks to the informational content of earnings reports using price changes trading volume and transaction frequency and size we examine the transaction to transaction and time series stock behavior associated with different degrees of earnings surprise embedded in earnings announcements the degree of surprise is measured by a comparison of actual with forecasted earnings for 325 new york stock exchange nyse firms these firms are subdivided into five earnings surprise categories in order to determine whether the speed and path of their price volume adjustment processes are different one question of interest is whether the adjustment process for favorable versus unfavorable earnings surprises is similar or different another is whether any adjustment is distinguished by a few large trades or a large number of smaller

deutsche mark dollar volatility intraday activity patterns macroeconomic announcements and longer run dependencies this paper provides a detailed characterization of the volatility in the deutsche mark dollar foreign exchange market using an annual sample of five minute returns the approach captures the intraday activity patterns the macroeconomic announcements and the volatility persistence arch known from daily returns the different features are separately quantified and shown to account for a substantial fraction of return variability both at the intraday and daily level the implications of the results for the interpretation of the fundamental driving forces behind the volatility process is also discussed the efficient market hypothesis contends that financial asset prices provide rational assessments of fundamental values and future payoffs by implication price changes should reflect the arrival and processing of all relevant new information however the proportion of return variability that can be ascribed to public news announcements is low for example cutler poterba and summers 1989 find that even the largest daily price changes in the stock market generally cannot be associated with any significant economic news 1 moreover proxies for the flow of public information e g the number of news items released by reuter s news service berry and hiowe 1994 or dow jones company mitchell and mulherin 1994 explain little of the overall variation thus if private information is ruled out proponents of rational price formation have to assert the existence of important news items

overeducation undereducation and the theory of career mobility the theory of career mobility sicherman and galor journal of political economy 98 1 169 92 1990 claims that wage penalties for overeducated workers are compensated by better promotion prospects sicherman journal of labour economics 9 2 101 22 1991 was able to confirm this theory in an empirical study using panel data however the only retest using panel data so far robst eastern economic journal 21 539 50 1995 produced rather ambiguous results in the present paper random effects models to analyse relative wage growth are estimated using data from the german socio economic panel it is found that overeducated workers in germany have markedly lower relative wage growth rates than adequately educated workers the results cast serious doubt on whether the career mobility model is able to explain overeducation in germany the plausibility of the results is supported by the finding that overeducated workers have less access to formal and informal on the job training which is usually foun

a theory of career mobility this paper analyzes theoretically and empirically the role and significance of occupational mobility in the labor market focusing on individuals careers it provides additional dimensions to the analysis of investment in human capital wage differences across individuals and the relationships among promotions quits and interfirm occupational mobility it is shown that part of the returns to education is in the form of higher probabilities of occupational upgrading within or across firms given an origin occupation schooling increases the likelihood of occupational upgrading furthermore workers who are not promoted despite a high probability of promotion are more likely to quit

tax induced trading and the turn of the year anomaly an intraday study this study tests the tax induced trading hypothesis as an explanation of the turn of the year anomaly using canadian and u s intraday data since the canadian tax year end precedes the calendar year end by five business days tax effects may be isolated we find the anomaly is related to the degree of seller and buyer initiated trading and depends upon the incidence of the taxation year end seller initiated transactions at bid prices dominate until the tax year end after which buyer initiated trades at ask prices dominate the anomaly is a function of bid ask prices

an investigation of transactions data for nyse stocks using transactions data the behavior of returns and characteristics of trades at the micro level is examined a minute by minute market return series is formed and tested for normality and autocorrelation evidence of differences in return distributions is found among overnight trades trades during the first 30 minutes following the market opening trades at the close and trades during the remainder of the day the latter distribution is found to be normal unusually high returns and standard deviations of returns are found at the beginning and the end of the trading day when the beginningand end of the day effects are omitted autocorrelation in the market return series is reduced substantially a number of patterns in trading are reported this paper empirically investigates the nature of the return generating process and the characteristics of trade size price changes trading frequency and trading interval at the level of individual trades for a large sample of nyse stocks previous studies of market indices have used daily weekly or monthly

does money matter for intergenerational income transmission the intergenerational income elasticity iie is a crucial measure of income mobility in this article we develop a structural model to examine the channels through which this elasticity operates using data from the panel study of income dynamics we separately identify the human capital and the financial components the human capital component examines the transmission of human capital independent of financial investments whereas the financial component examines the impact of income that is uncorrelated with human capital that is exogenous income using a two stage framework we show that the iie operates through both channels moreover our estimates show that the financial component may have a larger effect than previously estimated plausibly attributing to 36 of intergenerational income transmission indeed this result holds even when the financial component is defined in an incredibly narrow manner this suggests that cash payments could promote intergenerational mobility

job mismatches and career mobility does over education assist or hinder occupational advancement career mobility theory hypothesizes that over education leads to a higher level of occupational advancement and wage growth over time

your money or your life a prescriptive model for health safety and consumption decisions in this paper we develop a conceptual framework and model for valuing risks to an individual s health and life and to support decision making about investments in health quality of life and safety our treatment of health risks in the model builds on the popular quality adjusted life year qaly framework that balances health quality and length of life issues we extend this framework to consider financial concerns as well as health quality and length of life our model considers uncertainty in income and health and incorporates the decision maker s ability to adjust consumption over time in response to changes in expectations about health and income we use this model to study the optimal tradeoffs between financial gains or losses and improvements or reductions in health or longevity and apply it in two example medical decision problems

overeducation undereducation and asymmetric information in occupational mobility due to short term asymmetric information overeducated and undereducated workers are shown to have different optimal strategies in seeking upward occupational mobility into their next positions undereducated workers typically have other human capital strengths but these strengths are not marketable to outsiders overeducated workers typically have other human capital weaknesses that are not apparent to outsiders while their excess schooling is marketable in labour markets with dynamic asymmetric information this article presents empirical evidence showing that job tenure increases the probability of upward occupational mobility more if individuals are undereducated moreover the probability of finding upward occupational mobility is increased by overeducated workers engaging in firm switching this article also validates prior empirical studies finding overeducated workers more likely to self report engaging in firm switching activities and more likely to experience upward occupational mobility than o

life cycle preferences over consumption and health when is cost effectiveness analysis equivalent to cost benefit analysis this paper studies life cycle preferences over consumption and health status we show that cost effectiveness analysis is consistent with cost benefit analysis if the lifetime utility function is additive over time multiplicative in the utility of consumption and the utility of health status and if the utility of consumption is constant over time we derive the conditions under which the lifetime utility function takes this form both under expected utility theory and under rank dependent utility theory which is currently the most important nonexpected utility theory if cost effectiveness analysis is consistent with cost benefit analysis it is possible to derive tractable expressions for the willingness to pay for quality adjusted life years qalys the willingness to pay for qalys depends on wealth remaining life expectancy health status and the possibilities for intertemporal substitution of consumption

index futures arbitrage and the behavior of stock index futures prices this article examines intraday transaction datafor s p 500 stock indexfutures prices and the intraday quotes for the underlying index the data indicate that thefutures price changes are uncorrelated and that the variability of these price changes exceeds the variability ofprice changes in the s p 500 index this excess variability of the futures over the index remains even after controlling for the nonsynchronous prices in the index quotes which induces autocorrelation in the index changes we advance and examine empirically two hypotheses regarding the difference between the futures price and its theoretical value that this mispricing increases on average with maturity and that it is path dependent evidence supporting these hypotheses is presented

the relation between price changes and trading volume a survey this paper reviews previous and current research on the relation between price changes and trading volume in financial markets and makes four contributions first two empiri cal relations are established volume is positively related to the magnitude of the price change and in equity markets to the price change per se second previous theoretical research on the price volume relation is summarized and critiqued and major insights are emphasized third a simple model ofthe price volume relation is proposed that is consis tent with several seemingly unrelated or contradictory observations and fourth several directions for future research are identified

economic news and equity market linkages between the u s and u k abstract the source of equity market linkages between the u s and u k is investigated by focusing on intraday price movements of stock index futures contracts we document heightened u k return volatility at 11 30 a m and 1 30 p m gmt which corresponds to regular macroeconomic releases in the u k and u s respectively the response of u k equities in the half hour surrounding the u s announcements is significant and similar to price movements for u s equities to the same announcements these results support the hypothesis that the documented international equity market linkages are attributable to reactions of foreign traders to public information originating from the u s

overeducation in the labor market this article examines the reasons for the observed discrepancy between workers actual and required levels of schooling and the resulting differences in returns to schooling overeducated workers are found to be younger and to have lower amounts of on the job training than workers with the required level of schooling they also have higher rates of firm and occupational mobility characterized by movement of higher level occupations the findings suggest that overeducation can be explained by the trade off between schooling and other components of human capital and by the mobility patterns of overeducated workers

overeducation in the labour market abstract this paper presents a review of the literature on overeducation the paper assesses the consistency of overeducation within the context of a number of theoretical frameworks including human capital theory hct and assignment theory the analysis goes on to discuss the various measurement controversies associated with the study of overeducation in order to provide an assessment of the extent to which the impacts of the phenomenon represent an economic reality as opposed to a statistical artefact after reviewing the literature it is concluded that the impacts of overeducation are likely to be non trivial and that the phenomenon may potentially be costly to individuals and firms as well as the economy more generally the existence of overeducation also raises some doubts with respect to the validity of some of the central assumptions and predictions of hct that are unlikely to be fully explained by gaps in the standard wage equation framework

preferences for consumption streams scale invariance correlation aversion and delay aversion under mortality risk lifetime financial decisions often require a decision analyst to elicit a decision maker s preferences for consumption streams in assessing such preferences the analyst might look for a set of reasonable conditions to check when selecting a utility form we provide such a set of conditions and show that they lead to the multiplicative expo power mep utility form some of our conditions involve trade offs under certainty and others relate to choices under uncertainty in the deterministic setting we invoke increasingness continuous differentiability mutual preferential independence and preferential scale invariance in the uncertainty setting we invoke componentwise risk aversion a utility independence condition and correlation aversion we apply the mep utility in a life cycle consumption planning problem under mortality risk in this context we find that the correlation averse mep utility is more realistic than and as tractable as the popular correlation neutral additive power and additive exponential utilities we show that the correlation averse decision maker prefers to consume more in life and leave less behind in death in addition we demonstrate that the correlation averse decision maker is more averse to delaying consumption in the face of mortality risk

survival versus consumption we develop an indirect method to estimate utility and willingness to pay wtp for reductions in the risk of death at various ages using a life cycle model of consumption we assume that an individual sets his consumption level each year so as to maximize his expected lifetime utility alternative assumptions about opportunities for borrowing and annuities characterize two polar types of societies in our robinson crusoe case an individual must be entirely self sufficient and annuities are not available in our perfect markets case an individual can borrow against future earnings and purchase actuarially fair annuities we show that under these assumptions wtp is the sum of livelihood discounted expected future earnings and consumer surplus to illustrate our methods we derive wtp for an average financially independent american man under plausible assumptions the model is calibrated to 1978 earnings e g 18 000 per year for men aged 45 54 with at least some income in the robinson crusoe case wtp increases from 500 000 at age 20 to a peak of 1 250 000 at age 40 and declines to 630 000 at age 60 in the perfect markets case age variations are less pronounced wtp is 1 050 000 at age 20 peaks at 1 070 000 at age 25 and declines to 600 000 at age 60 these results suggest that individuals value risks to their lives at several times the pro rata share of their future earnings

liquidity externalities and adverse selection evidence from trading after hours this paper examines liquidity externalities by analyzing trading costs after hours there is less than 1 20 as many trades per unit time after hours as during the trading day the reduced trading activity results in substantially higher trading costs quoted and effective spreads are three to four times larger than during the trading day the higher spreads reflect greater adverse selection and order persistence but not higher dealer profits because liquidity provision remains competitive after hours the greater adverse selection and higher trading costs provide a direct measure of the magnitude of the liquidity externalities generated during the trading day understanding network effects and liquidity externalities is one of the most important outstanding issues in market design madhavan 2000 and market regulation macey and o hara 1999 liquidity externalities arise from bringing traders together in space and time to reduce search and trading costs bringing traders together creates liquidity externalities because the additional traders arriving in the marketplace reduce trading costs for all investors to date attention has focused almost exclusively on spatial network effects by examining the trading of securities in different markets at the same time lee 1993 hasbrouck 1995 and others in contrast this paper studies the effects of temporal consolidation of trades by analyzing trading during and outside of exchange trading hours a well known liquidity externality arises from asymmetric information rational informed traders break up their orders across markets and over time this provides incentives for liquidity traders to consolidate their trades geographically garbade and silber 1979 mendelson 1982 1987 pagano 1989a 1989b and intertemporally admati and pfleiderer 1988 and foster and viswanathan 1990 it has been difficult to document the importance of these liquidity externalities however unless there are barriers that restrict the flow of orders from one trading venue to another in equilibrium contemporaneous

overeducation undereducation and the british labour market this paper addresses the issue of overeducation and undereducation using for the first time a british dataset which contains explicit information on the level of required education to enter a job across the generality of occupations three key issues within the overeducation literature are addressed first what determines the existence of over and undereducation and to what extent are over and undereducation substitutes for experience tenure and training second to what extent are over and undereducation temporary or permanent phenomena third what are the returns to over and undereducation and do certain stylized facts discovered for the us and a number of european countries hold for britain

education and skills mismatch in the italian graduate labour market this paper focuses on education and skills mismatch among italian graduates indicators for over and under utilization of education and under utilization of skills are included as explanatory factors in a wage equation testing theories that could explain the effect of over schooling on wages we find little evidence to support assignment theory and also identify a relatively weak wage effect arising from educational mismatch associated with employers as opposed to employees perceptions of the job requirements our interpretation is that some employers have re categorized jobs as requiring a degree when they were previously filled by non graduates and many have not altered pay scales accordingly

trading and returns under periodic market closures this paper studies how market closures affect investors trading policies and the resulting return generating process it shows that closures generate rich patterns of time variation in trading and returns including those consistent with empirical findings 1 u shaped patterns in the mean and volatility of returns over trading periods 2 higher trading activity around the close and open 3 more volatile open to open returns than close to close returns 4 higher returns over trading periods than over nontrading periods 5 more volatile returns over trading periods than over nontrading periods it also shows that closures can make prices more informative about future payoffs we model a competitive stock market with periodic closures in which investors trade for both allocational and informational reasons we use the model to study how market closures intrinsically affect investors trading behavior and the return generating process the purpose of this analysis is to increase our understanding of the time variation in security trading and returns that are associated with regular market closures such as the intraday and intraweek patterns in stock returns volatility and trading volume we consider a stock market in which the exogenous information flow is homogeneous over time and the market closes periodically when the market is open investors trade the stock either to rebalance their overall portfolio of assets which also includes other illiquid assets or to speculate on future stock payoffs using their private information in particular investors adjust their asset portfolio by trading the stock in order to hedge the risk of illiquid assets we refer to these trades as hedging trades and those motivated by private information as speculative trades when the market is closed hong is from the graduate school of business stanford university and wang is from the sloan school of management massachusetts institute of technology and nber the authors thank jennifer huang for programming assistance and an anonymous referee for many valuable suggestions they also thank glenn ellison john heaton craig holden andrew lo steve slezak jeremy stein rene stulz the editor the nber asset pricing lunch group and par

an examination of stock market return volatility during overnight and intraday periods 1964 1989 this paper examines the variance of hourly market returns during 1964 89 results indicate that return volatility falls from the opening hour until early afternoon and rises thereafter and is significantly greater for intraday versus overnight periods market variance is also shown to change significantly over time rising after nasdaq began in 1971 rising after trading in stock options began in 1973 falling after fixed commissions were eliminated in 1975 rising after trading in stock index futures was introduced in 1982 and falling after margin requirements for stock index futures became larger in 1988 copyright 1990 by american finance association

volatility in the foreign currency futures market we examine the volatility implications of around the clock foreign exchange trading with transaction data on futures contracts from the chicago mercantile exchange and the london international financial futures exchange we find higher u s european and u s japanese exchange rate volatilities during u s trading hours and higher european cross rate volatilities during european trading hours while the diclosure of private information through trading may partly explain these volatility patterns we conclude that the increased volatility is more likely driven by macroeconomic news announcements an analysis of inter and intraday data also reveals that volatility increases at times that coincide with the release of u s macroeconomic news article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

the s p500 index effect reconsidered evidence from overnight and intraday stock price performance and volume abstract this study focuses on s p500 inclusions and deletions examining the impact of potential overnight price adjustment after the announcement of an s p500 index change we find evidence of a significant overnight price change that diminishes the returns available to speculators although there are still profits available from the first day after announcement until a few days after the actual event more importantly observing the tick by tick stock price performance and volume effects on the key days during the event window for the first time we find evidence of consistent trading patterns during trading hours a separate analysis of nasdaq and nyse listed stocks allows for a detailed examination of the price and volume effect at an intra day level we find that index funds appear to cluster their rebalancing activities near to and after the close on the event date suggesting that they are more concerned with tracking error than profit

standard poor s 500 index futures volatility and price changes around the new york stock exchange close we examine the effects of the closing of the new york stock exchange nyse on volatility and price changes in the standard poor s s p futures market which trades for 15 more minutes each day when the nyse closes volatility in the futures market drops significantly only to increase at the close of the futures market thus exhibiting a u shaped pattern after the nyse closes we also find that friday s close is the period of highest volatility in the futures market also in the final minutes on friday the s p futures price anticipates the well known weekend effect found in equities copyright 1995 by university of chicago press

autocorrelation of daily index returns intraday to intraday versus close to close intervals abstract first order autocorrelation coefficients of 1 daily equally weighted open to open returns 2 daily equally weighted intraday to intraday returns terminating at each of 23 successive 15 minute intervals of the trading day beginning at 10 15 a m and 3 daily equally weighted and value weighted close to close returns interval 24 are examined a number of findings concerning the behavior of these autocorrelations are reported first order autocorrelation is shown to follow a crude u shaped pattern when plotted against the time of the trading day but there is no significant difference in the behavior of autocorrelations based on open to open returns and 24 hour returns terminating at 10 15 a m evidence that intraday patterns in autocorrelation cannot be explained fully by trading delays also is presented

habit formation from correlation aversion making plans about how much to consume and how much to invest in risky assets over an uncertain lifetime is a fundamental economic challenge the leading models of this planning problem use either additive or habit forming preferences for the most part these models assume an individual is either correlation neutral or correlation seeking in consumption respectively in this paper we introduce two habit forming correlation averse preference models with these preferences we find closed form solutions to the classic consumption and portfolio planning problem our solutions recommend that a correlation averse decision maker follow a habit in their consumption plans while such habits traditionally have been associated with correlation seeking preferences our model leads to consumption habits from correlation averse preferences

career interruptions and subsequent earnings a reexamination using swedish data this paper reexamines the link between career interruptions and subsequent wages using a rich new swedish dataset we are able to disaggregate time out of work into several components regressing

institutional trades and intraday stock price behavior abstract this paper examines the price effect of institutional stock trading using a unique data set that reports the transactions large and small of 37 large institutional money management firms the direction of each trade and the identity of the management firm behind each trade are known although institutional trades are associated with some price pressure we find that the average effect is small there is also a marked asymmetry between the price impact of buys versus sells we relate our findings to various hypotheses on the elasticity of demand for stocks the cost of executing transactions and the determinants of market impact although market capitalization and relative trade size influence the market impact of a trade the dominant influence is the identity of the money manager behind the trade