arbitrage boundaries treasury bills and covered interest parity abstract this paper uses the covered interest parity relationship to define upper and lower arbitrage boundaries on domestic treasury bill t bill rates adapting the methodology for estimating frontier functions empirical tests are specified to determine whether the arbitrage boundaries provide a binding constraint on the behavior of the domestic t bill rate empirical evidence is presented for the covered canadian t bill rate which indicates that at various times the us t bill rate has been a binding lower boundary and the euro us ollar deposit rate has provided a binding upper boundary

occupational choice and the process of development this paper models economic development as a process of institutional transformation by focusing on the interplay between agents occupational decisions and the distribution of wealth because of capital market imperfections poor agents choose working for a wage over self employment and wealthy agents become entrepreneurs who monitor workers only with sufficient inequality however will there be employment contracts otherwise there is either subsistence or self employment thus in static equilibrium the occupational structure depends on distribution since the latter is itself endogenous we demonstrate the robustness of this result by extending the model dynamically and studying examples in which initial wealth distributions have long run effects in one case the economy develops either widespread cottage industry self employment or factory production employment contracts depending on the initial distribution in the other example it develops into prosperity or stagnation

the emergence and persistence of the anglo saxon and german financial systems we use a moral hazard model to compare monitored nontraded bank loans and traded nonmonitored bonds as sources of external funds for industry we contrast the theoretical conditions that favor each system with the historical conditions prevailing when these financial systems evolved during the british and german industrial revolutions to study persistence we consider an entry model where financiers take the industrial structure as given when they lend and firms take the financial system as given when they borrow we show multiple equilibria can exist compare equilibria in welfare terms and discuss their robustness to coordination between lenders and borrowers copyright 2004 oxford university press

bank based versus market based financial systems a growth theoretic analysis abstract we study bank based and market based financial systems in an endogenous growth model lending to firms is fraught with moral hazard as owner managers may reduce investment profitability to enjoy private benefits bank monitoring partially resolves the agency problem while market finance is more hands off a bank based or market based system emerges from firm financing choices neither system is unequivocally better for growth which crucially depends on the efficiency of financial and legal institutions but a bank based system outperforms a market based one along other dimensions investment and per capita income are higher and income inequality lower under a bank based system bank based systems are also more conducive for broad based industrialization

the stability of the interest parity relationship between canada and the united states a note where f and s are respectively the forward and spot prices of foreign exchange and r the domestic foreign interest rate empirically however condition 1 does not always appear to have been satisfied thus raising questions regarding the existence of unexploited profit opportunities in the foreign exchange market previous studies have attempted to offer explanations for these apparent deviations from interest parity for example prachowny 1970 emphasized the role of capital market imperfections aliber 1973 stressed measurement error and political risk while branson 1969 and later frenkel and levich 1975 argued that departures from interest parity were due to transactions costs in canada three of these factors have with perhaps varying degree had some influence on developments in financial markets during the 1970s first as evidence of capital market imperfections there was the winnipeg agreement between the bank of canada and the chartered banks which imposed ceilings on large canadian dollar short term bank deposits second there was the potential for an increase in the political riskiness of canadian dollar denominated assets following the election of the separatist government in quebec in late 1976 finally there was the market turbulence accompanying the sharp depreciation of the canadian dollar during 1977 and 1978 and its potential for increased transactions costs in the market for foreign exchange resulting from greater uncertainty regarding exchange rate movements but how important have these factors been as far as the robustness of the interest parity theorem is concerned indeed have variations in the degree of capital market imperfection in political risk or in transactions costs been sufficient to cause statistically significant breakdowns in the basic relationship given by equation 1 this note attempts to throw some light on this question by testing for the stability of the parameters in the regression relationship

wind power implementation the nature of public attitudes equity and fairness instead of backyard motives abstract public attitudes anywhere in europe show moderate to strong support for the implementation of renewable energy nevertheless planning wind power developments appears to be a complicated matter in most countries the problems that have to be dealt with during decision making processes on the siting of wind turbines are usually referred to as mere communication problems however public attitudes towards wind power are fundamentally different from attitudes towards wind farms this gap causes misunderstandings about the nature of public support for renewables in particular where planners easily assume support for renewables can be generated by information campaigns emphasising the environmental benefits whereas opposition to renewable energy schemes can be explained by a selfish not in my backyard attitude both explanations used by planners authorities and unfortunately by many scholars are falsified furthermore policies that still take this common knowledge for granted can have negative consequences for the implementation rates of renewables visual evaluation of the impact of wind power on landscape values is by far the dominant factor in explaining why some are opposed to wind power and others are supporting it moreover feelings about equity and fairness appear the determinants of backyard motives instead of selfishness

income distribution and macroeconomics this paper analyzes the role of wealth distribution in macroeconomics through investment in human capital it is shown that in the presence of credit markets imperfections and indivisibilities in investment in human capital the initial distribution of wealth affects aggregate output and investment both in the short and in the long run as there are multiple steady states this paper therefore provides an additional explanation for the persistent differences in per capita output across countries furthermore the paper shows that cross country differences in macroeconomic adjustment to aggregate shocks can be attributed among other factors to differences in wealth and income distribution across countries

new ways of looking at old issues inequality and growth abstract the paper uses new cross country data on income and asset land distribution to show that i there is a strong negative relationship between initial inequality in the asset distribution and long term growth ii inequality reduces income growth for the poor but not for the rich and iii available longitudinal data provide little support for the kuznets hypothesis policies that increase aggregate investment and facilitate acquisition of assets by the poor might thus be doubly beneficial for growth and poverty reduction

can renewables etc solve the greenhouse problem the negative case abstract virtually all current discussion of climate change and energy problems proceeds on the assumption that technical solutions are possible within basically affluent consumer societies there is however a substantial case that this assumption is mistaken this case derives from a consideration of the scale of the tasks and of the limits of non carbon energy sources focusing especially on the need for redundant capacity in winter the first line of argument is to do with the extremely high capital cost of the supply system that would be required and the second is to do with the problems set by the intermittency of renewable sources it is concluded that the general climate change and energy problem cannot be solved without large scale reductions in rates of economic production and consumption and therefore without transition to fundamentally different social structures and systems

contractual structure and wealth accumulation can historical wealth distributions affect long run output and inequality despite rational saving convex technology and no externalities we consider a model of equilibrium short period financial contracts where poor agents face credit constraints owing to moral hazard and limited liability if agents have no bargaining power poor agents have no incentive to save poverty traps emerge and agents are polarized into two classes with no interclass mobility if instead agents have all the bargaining power strong saving incentives are generated the wealth of poor and rich agents alike drift upward indefinitely and history does not matter eventually d31 d91 i32 o17 q15

a new data set measuring income inequality this article presents a new data set on inequality in the distribution of income the authors explain the criteria they applied in selecting data on gini coefficients and on individual quintile groups income shares comparison of the new data set with existing compilations reveals that the data assembled here represent an improvement in quality and a significant expansion in coverage although differences in the definition of the underlying data might still affect inter temporal and international comparability based on this new data set the authors do not find a systematic link between growth and changes in aggregate inequality they do find a strong positive relationship between growth and reduction of poverty

what is the global potential for renewable energy abstract world energy demand is projected to rise to 1000 ej ej 1018 j or more by 2050 if economic growth continues its course of recent decades both reserve depletion and greenhouse gas emissions will necessitate a major shift from fossil fuels as the dominant energy source since nuclear power is now unlikely to increase its present modest share renewable energy re will have to provide for most energy in the future this paper addresses the questions of what energy levels re can eventually provide and in what time frame we find that when the energy costs of energy are considered it is unlikely that re can provide anywhere near a 1000 ej by 2050 we further show that the overall technical potential for re will fall if climate change continues we conclude that the global shift to re will have to be accompanied by large reductions in overall energy use for environmental sustainability

financial intermediation and delegated monitoring this paper develops a theory of financial intermediation based on minimizing the cost of monitoring information which is useful for resolving incentive problems between borrowers and lenders it presents a characterization of the costs of providing incentives for delegated monitoring by a financial intermediary diversification within an intermediary serves to reduce these costs even in a risk neutral economy the paper presents some more general analysis of the effect of diversification on resolving incentive problems in the environment assumed in the model debt contracts with costly bankruptcy are shown to be optimal the analysis has implications for the portfolio structure and capital structure of intermediaries

law finance and firm growth we investigate how differences in legal and financial systems affect firms use of external financing to fund growth we show that in countries whose legal systems score high on an efficiency index a greater proportion of firms use long term external financing an active though not necessarily large stock market and a large banking sector are also associated with externally financed firm growth the increased reliance on external financing occurs in part because established firms in countries with well functioning institutions have lower profit rates government subsidies to industry do not increase the proportion of firms relying on external financing the corporate finance literature suggests that market imperfections caused by conflicts of interest and informational asymmetries between corporate insiders and investors constrain firms in their ability to fund investment projects the magnitude of these imperfections depends in part on the effectiveness of the legal and financial systems because these systems differ across countries the literature implies that there should exist systematic cross country differences in firms ability to obtain external capital to finance investment in this paper we examine whether the underdevelopment of legal and financial systems does prevent firms in some countries from investing in potentially profitable growth opportunities in particular we focus on the use of long term debt or external equity to fund growth see our earlier work demirgut kunt and maksimovic 1996a which compares firms financial structures in developed and developing countries and finds the greatest difference to be in the provision of long term credit we estimate a financial planning model to obtain the maximum growth rate that each firm in our thirty country sample could attain without access to long term financing we then compare these predicted growth rates to growth rates realized by firms in countries with differing degrees of development in their legal and financial systems our approach enables us to identify specific characteristics of the legal and financial systems that are associated with long term financing of firm growth thus we provide a micro level test of the hypoth

degrowth energy descent and low tech living potential pathways for increased resilience in times of crisis the use or misuse of advanced technology is a key factor driving global environmental degradation but advanced technology is also widely assumed to be the solution to many environmental problems in contrast to that dominant approach this paper outlines a variety of what the authors call low tech options such as solar shower bags washing lines alternative heating and cooling methods and cycling and raises questions about the extent to which these types of simple living practices could help increase household resilience in conditions of economic disruption instability or crisis the analysis is framed by an energy descent scenario in which an individual household or community either chooses a reduced energy way of life motivated by climate change mitigation or has such a way of life imposed upon them due to declining fossil fuel availability or economic disruption the authors see such a future as plausible and in some contexts has already arrived or has always been the case hence the relevance of this analysis which has both quantitative and qualitative dimensions furthermore while the focus herein is on low tech living at the household level it is argued that prefiguring a simpler way to live has deeper significance too in that it could help create the cultural conditions needed for a politics and macroeconomics of degrowth to emerge which the authors maintain is a necessary part of any decarbonisation project challenges facing low tech options are also acknowledged including the ever present risk of rebound effects and other indirect impacts

renewable energy sources their global potential for the first half of the 21st century at a global level an integrated approach abstract the risk of human induced climate change and the volatility of world oil markets make non fossil fuel options important this paper investigates the potential for wind solar pv and biomass wsb to deliver energy the focus is on land opportunities and constraints and on production costs as a function of resource availability and depletion and of innovation dynamics the context is provided by the ipcc sres scenarios as simulated with the image 2 2 model we explicitly consider several sources of uncertainty aspects of the food vs energy trade off and the effects of interaction between the three options through their claims on land we show that potential production concepts are strongly dependent on the chosen land use scenario and should therefore be used with an indication of the underlying assumptions our results indicate a potential for liquid biofuels in the order of 75 300 ej year 1 and for electricity from wsb options at production costs below 10 kwh 1 of 200 300 pwh year 1 theoretically future electricity demand can be amply met from wsb sources in most regions by 2050 below 10 kwh 1 but major uncertainties are the degree to which land is actually available and the rate and extent at which specific investment costs can be reduced in some regions competition for land among the three wsb options may significantly reduce the total potential as estimated from simple addition which is another source of uncertainty

financial development growth and the distribution of income a paradigm is presented in which both the extent of financial intermediation and the rate of economic growth are endogenously determined financial intermediation promotes growth because it allows a higher rate of return to be earned on capital and growth in turn provides the means to implement costly financial structures thus financial intermediation and economic growth are inextricably linked in accord with the goldsmith mckinnon shaw view on economic development the model also generates a development cycle reminiscent of the kuznet hypothesis in particular in the transition from a primitive slow growing economy to a developed fast growing one a nation passes through a stage in which the distribution of wealth across the rich and poor widens

wec energy policy scenarios to 2050 abstract at the world energy congress held in sydney in september 2004 the world energy council wec decided in a follow up to the scenario work global energy perspectives last produced in 1998 to draw up new global energy scenarios for the period up to the year 2050 three fundamental changes were resolved compared with previous work policy scenarios were to be worked out bottom up based on the specific knowledge of the wec members from the various world regions second plausible basic assumptions were to be made for the scenarios to gear them to the wec s sustainability goals of accessibility availability and acceptability the three as finally the scenarios were to have a sufficiently long time horizon and contain clear recommendations for political measures designed to reach the outcomes aimed at by 2050

what energy levels can the earth sustain abstract several official reports on future global primary energy production and use develop scenarios which suggest that the high energy growth rates of the 20th century will continue unabated until 2050 and even beyond in this paper we examine whether any combination of fossil nuclear and renewable energy sources can deliver such levels of primary energy around 1000 ej in 2050 we find that too much emphasis has been placed on whether or not reserves in the case of fossil and nuclear energy or technical potential in the case of renewable energy can support the levels of energy use forecast in contrast our analysis stresses the crucial importance of the interaction of technical potentials for annual production with environmental factors social political and economic concerns and limited time frames for implementation in heavily constraining the real energy options for the future together these constraints suggest that future energy consumption will be significantly lower than the present level

is the interest differential exogenous in interest rate parity the japanese experience 1979 1983 abstract the paper examines the causal relationship between the interest rate differential intd and the forward exchange rates premium exp with three types of test of daily data between 1979 and 1983 at the tokyo money and foreign exchange markets and the euro dollar market the tests indicate a strong instantaneous and a bidirectional causal relationship between exp and intd such relationship was enhanced in the second period after free capital transactions were permitted in december 1980 with intd s effect on exp being greater than that in the opposite direction

assessment of sustainability indicators for renewable energy technologies the non combustion based renewable electricity generation technologies were assessed against a range of sustainability indicators and using data obtained from the literature the indicators used to assess each technology were price of generated electricity greenhouse gas emissions during full life cycle of the technology availability of renewable sources efficiency of energy conversion land requirements water consumption and social impacts the cost of electricity greenhouse gas emissions and the efficiency of electricity generation were found to have a very wide range for each technology mainly due to variations in technological options as well as geographical dependence of each renewable energy source the social impacts were assessed qualitatively based on the major individual impacts discussed in literature renewable energy technologies were then ranked against each indicator assuming that indicators have equal importance for sustainable development it was found that wind power is the most sustainable followed by hydropower photovoltaic and then geothermal wind power was identified with the lowest relative greenhouse gas emissions the least water consumption demands and with the most favourable social impacts comparing to other technologies but requires larger land and has high relative capital costs

distribution of energy consumption and the 2000 w capita target this viewpoint discusses the intra and international distribution of energy consumption and their implications for intergenerational equity for global development to be sustainable the inequality of energy consumption must have an upper limit a graphic depiction of energy consumption distributions intra and international shows that today s inequalities are large and it is argued that we may have already reached or perhaps even surpassed the sustainability limit of energy consumption inequality

equilibrium for overlapping generations in continuous time abstract we prove the existence of general equilibrium for continuous time overlapping generations models previous theorems exclude all non linear c e s and von neumann morgenstern preferences and exclude production our primitive assumptions are satisfied by such preferences and by all markovian production technologies satisfying bewley s assumptions for arrow debreu models provided that storage is possible at some finite rate of depreciation and some positive capacity a non existence example shows our markovian and storage assumptions cannot be dropped journal of economic literature classification numbers c62 d51 d90

the development and structure of financial systems abstract firms raise external finance via monitored bank loans and non monitored borrowing in a dynamic general equilibrium model access to credit and each type of financing depend on the wealth distribution due to moral hazard we study the depth of credit markets financial development and conditions under which the financial system relies more on either type of external finance financial structure initial inequality investment size and institutional factors determine the level of financial development while financial structure is shaped by the investment technology and legal and financial institutions the model s predictions are consistent with historical and recent development experience

a theory of trickle down growth and development this paper develops a model of growth and income inequalities in the presence of imperfect capital markets and it analyses the trickle down effect of capital accumulation moral hazard with limited wealth constraints on the part of the borrowers is the source of both capital market imperfections and the emergence of persistent income inequalities three main conclusions are obtained from this model first when the rate of capital accumulation is sufficiently high the economy converges to a unique invariant wealth distribution second even though the trickle down mechanism can lead to a unique steady state distribution under laissez faire there is room for government intervention in particular redistribution of wealth from rich lenders to poor and middle class borrowers improves the production efficiency of the economy both because it brings about greater equality of opportunity and also because it accelerates the trickle down process third the process of capital accumulation initially has the effect of widening inequalities but in later stages it reduces them in other words this model can generate a kuznets curve

the dynamics of the wealth distribution and the interest rate with credit rationing are uniquely determined and wealth dispersion among individuals or firms is irrelevant introducing credit rationing into the solow model modifies these conclusions multiple stationary interest rates and wealth distributions can exist because higher initial rates can be self reinforcing through higher credit rationing and lower capital accumulation the wealth accumulation process is ergodic in every steady state but wealth mobility is lower with higher steady state interest rates aggregate output is higher in steady states with lower interest rates because credit is better allocated short run interest rate or distribution shocks can be self sustaining and can have long run effects on output through the induced dynamics of the wealth distribution and credit rationing

financial markets in development and the development of financial markets what is the relationship between markets and development it is argued that markets promote growth and that growth in turn encourages the formation of markets two models with endogenous market formation are presented to analyze this issue the first examines the role that financial markets banks and stock markets play in allocating funds to the highest valued use in the economic system it is shown that intermediation will arise under weak conditions the second focuses on the role that markets play in supporting specialization in economic activity the consequences of perfect competition in market formation are highlighted

financial development and economic growth views and agenda this critique argues that the preponderance of theoretical reasoning and empirical evidence suggests a positive first order relationship between financial development and economic growth the body of work would push even most skeptics toward the belief that the development of financial markets and institutions is a critical and inextricable part of the growth process and away from the view that the financial system is an inconsequential sideshow responding passively to economic growth many gaps remain however and the paper highlights areas in acute need of additional research