exchange rate volatility and irish uk trade 1979 1992 this study examines how exchange rate volatility affected ireland s exports to its most important trading partner the united kingdom from 1979 to 1992 to ensure reliable inferences regarding income and price elasticities and the impact of exchange rate volatility on exports the time series properties of the series used are investigated the analysis here is conducted at both aggregate and 2 digit sitc division levels since exchange rate volatility can reasonably be presumed to affect sectors differently since expectations matter for exchange rate determination real volatility was generated according to a first order garch process both real and nominal volatility were important determinants for over 35 of irish uk trade with positive effects predominating this may be due to the nature of irish firms operating in a small open economy where they have little option in dealing with increased exchange rate risk except to weather the storm for fear of losing market share or facing costs of either exit

reducing bureaucratic corruption interdisciplinary perspectives on what works abstract this article offers the first comprehensive review of the interdisciplinary state of knowledge regarding anti corruption policies with a particular focus on reducing corruption among civil servants drawing on the work of economists political scientists sociologists and anthropologists we examine seven policy categories 1 rewards and penalties 2 monitoring 3 restructuring bureaucracies 4 screening and recruiting 5 anti corruption agencies 6 educational campaigns and 7 international agreements notably rigorous empirical evaluation is lacking for the majority of commonly prescribed anti corruption policies nevertheless we find growing evidence of the effectiveness of policies based on monitoring including anti corruption audits and e governance in addition adequate civil service wages seem to be a necessary but insufficient condition for control of corruption an emerging skepticism regarding the effectiveness of anti corruption agencies also is apparent in the literature we conclude with broader lessons drawn from our review such as the recognition that when corruption is a systemic problem it cannot be treated in the long term with individual level solutions

the choice of exchange rate regime and the volatility of exchange rates after the asian crisis a counterfactual analysis the objective of this paper is to carry out a counterfactual analysis of the impact of alternative exchange rate regimes on the volatility of the nominal effective exchange rate neer and the bilateral rate against the us dollar for nine east asian countries after the asian financial crisis our hypothetical regimes include a unilateral basket peg ubp a common basket peg cbp and a hard peg against the dollar we find that a ubp would minimise effective exchange rate volatility for all countries and provides the highest regime gains compared to actual although the gains for a cbp are always less than those for a ubp the absolute differences between the two regimes appear to be small in terms of the bilateral relationship against the dollar the gains from a ubp or cbp could be quite significant for the non dollar peggers since a fall in effective instability would be accompanied by a fall in bilateral instability

state lottery adoptions as policy innovations an event history analysis two types of explanations of state government innovation have been proposed internal determinants models which posit that the factors causing a state government to innovate are political economic and social characteristics of a state and regional diffusion models which point toward the role of policy adoptions by neighboring states in prompting a state to adopt we show that the two are conceptually compatible relying on mohr s theory of organizational innovation then we develop and test a unified explanation of state lottery adoptions reflecting both internal and regional influences the empirical results provide a great degree of support for mohr s theory for the empirical analysis we rely on event history analysis a form of pooled cross sectional time series analysis which we believe may be useful in a wide variety of subfields of political science event history analysis may be able to explain important forms of political behavior by individuals organizations or governments even if they occur only rarely

why get technical corruption and the politics of public service reform in the indian states the emergence of new information and communication technologies in the 1990s offered governments opportunities to deliver public services more effectively to their citizens yet national and subnational authorities have employed such technologies in highly uneven ways drawing on a new data set of technology policy adoption by indian states the author argues that political calculations drive variation in the timing and scope of technology policies politicians weigh the expected electoral benefits from providing new goods to citizens against the expected electoral costs of reduced access to corrupt funds because of increased transparency the author shows that the level of bureaucratic corruption in a state is the best predictor of both when states implement policies promoting computer enabled services and the number of services made available this finding contrasts with arguments that posit economic or developmental conditions or alternative electoral and institutional characteristics as the major dri

exchange rate volatility and foreign trade evidence from thirteen ldc s this article investigates empirically the impact of real exchange rate volatility on the export flows of 13 less developed countries ldc s over the quarterly period 1973 1996 estimates of the cointegrating relations are obtained using johansen s multivariate procedure estimates of the short run dynamics are obtained for each country using the error correction technique the major results show that increases in the volatility of the real effective exchange rate approximating exchange rate uncertainty exert a significant negative effect on export demand in both the short run and the long run in each of the 13 ldc s these effects may result in significant reallocation of resources by market participants

empirical implications of alternative models of firm dynamics abstract this paper considers two models of firm behavior that allow for heterogeneity among firms idiosyncratic or firm specific sources of uncertainty and discrete outcomes exit and or entry both the characteristics of firm level panel data sets and the nature of the questions we characteristically ask of them imply that models with these features are likely to underlie most detailed empirical work on microdata sets the models we consider are a bayesian learning model due to jovanovic 20 and a model of research and exploration due to ericson and pakes 11 the paper provides a simple set of empirical procedures to help determine which if either of these two models might be appropriate for alternative data sets we conclude by checking for the implications of the two models on an eight year panel of wisconsin firms the results indicate that one model is consistent with the data on manufacturing firms while the other is consistent with the data on retail trade journal of economic literature classification numbers c52 l60 l80

why so small explaining the size of firms in latin america hile a great deal of effort has been devoted to study the determinants ofaggregate economic growth in developing economies little attention hasbeen paid to the factors in uencing the creation growth and destruction of rmsin these economies deriving policy implications from empirical results basedon macroeconomic data is a risky proposition especially for policies that areexpected to have an effect through the response of rms a key issue at a microeconomic level is the extent to which rms are con strained on their pro t maximising technology and on their sales through ele ments such as excessive regulation trade barriers and corruption if world oroecd averages constitute a good proxy for optimal rm size then deviations notexplained by technology differences can be viewed as evidence of inef ciencydue to the presence of those factors the aim of this paper is to empiricallyinvestigate this issue with particular attention to those determinants of rm sizethat might be altered through the adoption of government policies this topic is particularly relevant for latin america a region with one of thelowest rates of growth during the second half of the twentieth century secondonly to the sub saharan countries inter american development bank 2000 ch 1 and where the largest rms in each country are severely undersized notonly by international standards but also in comparison with other developingcountries in fact latin american rms are small with respect to world patterns both in terms of the quantity of assets they control and with respect to the amountof employment they generate the idea that possibilities for business development are more limited inlatin america than in other regions is reinforced by business surveys that assesshow a variety of factors hinder the growth of rms worldwide according to the

micro economic applications of marginal changes in risk abstract extending a recent definition we propose a theorem on the impact of marginal changes in risk on the optimal decision of a risk averse individual several micro economic applications are then provided

firm size and the nature of innovation within industries the case of process and product r d the effect of firm size on the allocation of r d effort between process and product innovation is examined it is hypothesized that relative to product innovations process innovations are less saleable in disembodied form and spawn less growth this implies that the returns to process r d will depend more on the firm s output at the time it conducts its r d than the returns to product r d incorporating this distinction in a simple model the authors derive and test predictions about how the fraction of r d devoted to process innovation varies with firm size within industries

science park location and new technology based firms in sweden implications for strategy and performance one logical way to assess the performance of science parks is to compare the performance of their firms to similar firms not located there a total of 273 new technology based firms ntbfs were surveyed of which 134 were on a science park and 139 were not on a park there were significant differences in the means of strategy dimensions between the on park and off park firms it can be seen that the ntbfs who located in science parks showed significantly greater emphasis on firm characteristics as innovation ability competitor and market orientation sales and employment growth high profits etc the differences indicates a slight advantage for the science park firms the off park sample reported proximity to other firms to be of higher importance than the on park sample in their choice of location however these differences do not show any clear pattern making it difficult to understand if ntbfs who locate on science parks are systematically looking for something different in their location

exchange rate uncertainty and agricultural trade using a sample of bilateral trade flows across ten developed countries between 1974 and 1995 this article explores the effect of exchange rate uncertainty on the growth of agricultural trade as compared to other sectors based on a gravity model that controls for other factors likely to determine bilateral trade the results show that real exchange rate uncertainty has had a significant negative effect on agricultural trade over this period moreover the negative impact of uncertainty on agricultural trade has been more significant compared to other sectors

exchange rate volatility and exports new empirical evidence from the emerging east asian economies this paper examines the impact of bilateral real exchange rate volatility on real exports of five emerging east asian countries among themselves as well as to 13 industrialised countries we recognise the specificity of the exports between the emerging east asian and industrialised countries and employ a generalised gravity model in the empirical analysis we use a panel comprising 25 years of quarterly data and perform unit root and cointegration tests to verify the long run relationship among the variables the results provide strong evidence that exchange rate volatility has a negative impact on the exports of emerging east asian countries in addition the results suggest that the pattern of bilateral exports is influenced by third country variables an increase in the price competitiveness of other emerging east asian countries has a negative impact on a country s exports to a destination market but the magnitude of the impact is relatively small these results are robust across different estimation techniques and do not depend on the variable chosen to proxy exchange rate uncertainty the results of the gmm iv estimation also confirm the negative impact of exchange rate volatility on exports and suggest that this negative relationship is not driven by simultaneous causality bias

exchange rate effects a case study of the export performance of the swiss agriculture and food sector the swiss franc appreciated strongly against the currencies of switzerland s most important trading partners after the global financial crisis in 2008 this has raised the question of how sensitive swiss exports are with respect to exchange rate movements we analyse this question for exports of the swiss agriculture and food sector using both time series and dynamic panel data models based on data from 1999 to 2012 we find that in the long run a one per cent appreciation of the swiss franc leads on average to a decrease in exports of agricultural and food products between 0 8 and 0 9 per cent our results suggest that on average producers in the swiss agriculture and food sector are able to successfully avoid price competition by differentiating their products producing high quality products for niche markets

exchange rate volatility exchange rate regime and trade volume evidence from the uk us export function 1889 1999 abstract this paper investigated the impact of exchange rate volatility and exchange rate regime on the british exports to the united states using data for the period 1889 1999 the empirical findings suggest that neither exchange rate volatility nor the different exchange rate regimes that spanned the last century had an effect on export volume

price stabilization and the risk averse firm an analytically simple and tractable approach to firm level welfare analysis of complete and partial mean preserving price stabilization for producers with general risk averse preferences facing a stochastic technology is developed necessary and sufficient conditions for price stabilization to be welfare enhancing are derived under different assumptions of the producer s preferences and the producer s technology existing stabilization results for the risk averse firm are shown to be corollaries of these more general results

one money one market the effect of common currencies on trade currency unions their dramatic effect on international trade a gravity model is used to assess the separate effects of exchange rate volatility and currency unions on international trade the panel data bilateral observations for five years during 1970 90 covering 186 countries includes 300 observations in which both countries use the same currency i find a large positive effect of a currency union on international trade and a small negative effect of exchange rate volatility even after controlling for a host of features including the endogenous nature of the exchange rate regime these effects statistically significant imply that two countries sharing the same currency trade three times as much as they would with different currencies currency unions like the european emu may thus lead to a large increase in international trade with all that that entails andrew rose

asean and china export rivals or partners in regional growth hina s initial opening to the world economy in the late 1980s followed by its relatively rapid trade liberalisation in the second half of the 1990s and its recent wto accession has prompted extensive debate amongst the policy community in many countries 1 governments of the asean group in particular have been extremely concerned at the prospect of fdi diversion and the loss of export market share in oecd economies to china this paper summarises detailed empirical research by the authors intended to strengthen the basis of evidence on the important issue of export rivalry in particular we seek to elucidate the underlying properties of comparative advantage and export competition in the countries concerned synthesising detailed trade flow and econometric analysis our econometric results indicate that in the short run at least asean and china are experiencing intensified export competition in prominent third markets such as japan and the us more extensive trade flow analysis reveals however that in the long run globalisation can accommodate export growth by all the economies of east asia if aggregate growth can be sustained to facilitate the structural adjustments necessary for an optimal regional division of labour more specifically the path forward is not without potential rivalry but wellinformed policy makers can anticipate emergent challenges and take the steps necessary to mitigate adjustment costs and promote longer term efficiency whatever the ultimate course of development in east asia it is clear that the forces at work are complex and in many cases unprecedented policy makers relying on

loan guarantees costs of default and benefits to small firms abstract governments of most countries seek to encourage small and medium sized enterprise sme growth and the job creation that many believe is fostered by such growth substantive growth usually requires expansion capital it is often perceived that compared with larger firms smes face disproportionately less access to the debt capital they need for start up growth and survival consequently governments and trade associations have often intervened in credit markets by taking on the role of guarantor of loans that financial institutions advance to smes for example the small business administration in the united states provides guarantees of loans made by banks to qualifying small firms similar schemes are in effect in among other countries canada japan the u k korea and germany trade associations take on such roles in france spain and other nations loans that support the expansion of small enterprises may convey significant benefits to the borrowing firms and through job creation and retention to the rest of society however to the extent that some borrowers are unable to meet the repayment obligations of their debt guarantors also face material real costs of honoring their guarantee to the lenders loan guarantee programs are designed in a variety of ways often these programs do not appear to reflect guidance from economic theory or experience this paper draws on empirical evidence to compare costs with benefits in addition it uses the results and economic theory to provide some guidance for the design of loan guarantee programs finally the study shows that loan guarantee programs can be an effective means of supporting start up growth and survival of new and risky enterprises the work finds that substantial total and incremental job creation may be attributed to the canadian loan guarantee program the paper reviews previous attempts to conduct cost benefit analyses of loan guarantee programs it finds wide variation internationally in default rates published data suggests default rates vary from less than 5 germany to more than 40 u k the empirical analysis reported here focuses on the canadian implementation of loan guarantees the small business loans act sbla findings include 1 loan guarantees granted under the terms of the sbla provide an extremely efficient means of job creation with very low estimated costs per job 2 default rates are higher for newer firms increase with the amount of funds borrowed and vary widely by sector borrowers in the retail and accommodation and food and beverage sectors were significantly more likely to default than borrowers in other sectors and 3 the widening eligibility to larger firms and to larger loans may not be well advised and is inconsistent with the goals of the program moreover reducing the loan ceiling would arguably discourage fraudulent applications while servicing those smes most in need of early stage capital in addition analysis of the lenders motives suggests that default rates on the portfolio of guaranteed loans and therefore the costs of honoring guarantees are particularly sensitive to the level of the guarantee small reductions in the level of the guarantee for example guaranteeing 80 of principal and accrued interest instead of 85 could lead to substantial reductions in default rates debate persists in economic theory about whether or not government intervention in the credit market is warranted in spite of the findings that loan guarantees seem to make positive contributions further analysis of these issues is advised

bounded price variation models with rational expectations and price risk abstract the bounded price variation model under rational expectations is extended to include higher moments of price in the supply equation the resulting framework is then used to estimate a disequilibrium model of the u s corn market that includes price risk

on the trade impact of nominal exchange rate volatility what is the effect of nominal exchange rate variability on trade i argue that the methods conventionally used to answer this perennial question are plagued by a variety of sources of systematic bias i propose a novel approach that simultaneously addresses all of these biases and present new estimates from a broad sample of countries from 1970 to 1997 the estimates indicate that nominal exchange rate variability has no significant impact on trade flows

real output co movements in east asia any evidence for a monetary union of integration in the region would greatly shape the economic structure of each individual economy an d has direct implications for the effectiveness of domestic stabilisation policy and policy coordination this paper empiricall y examines the feasibility of forming a monetary union in east asia by assessing the real output co movements among these economies as suggested by the optimum curr ency area oca theory that losing monetary independence would be the major cost for adopting

real exchange rate volatility and international trade a reexamination of the theory one of the issues that have received considerable attention in the comparison of the properties of alternative exchange rate regimes is the effect of exchange rate risk on the volume of trade it has been argued that the higher volatility of exchange rates witnessed since the adoption of the floating regime in 1973 has led to a decrease in international trade transactions this is because most trade contracts are not for immediate delivery of goods and since they are denominated in terms of the currency of either the importer or the exporter unanticipated fluctuations in the exchange rate affect realized profits and hence the volume of trade it is implicitly assumed that forward exchange markets that can help traders eliminate this type of variations in profits either are not available as it is true for the majority of currencies because most are not fully convertible thereby impairing forward markets or for some reason they are not utilized to fully hedge exchange risk present in trade transactions the empirical evidence regarding the effect of exchange rate risk on trade has at best been inconclusive the large majority of the empirical studies are unable to establish a systematically significant link between exchange rate variability and the volume of international trade whether on an aggregate or on a bilateral basis abrams 1 akhtar and hilton 2 cushman 4 5 6 and kenan and rodrik 12 find some significant negative effects of exchange volatility on exports however bailey tavlas and uhlan 3 hooper and kohlhagen 10 and an international monetary fund study 11 do not find any supporting evidence for the depressing effect of exchange rate volatility on international trade it is also interesting to note that in many of these studies a significant positive effect of exchange rate volatility on the volume of trade is found for some cases however the positive effect believed to be at odds with the theory was either ignored or dismissed as a perverse result since as far as volumes are concerned theoretical considerations

why is it so difficult to find an effect of exchange rate risk on trade abstract it is commonly argued that exchange rate risk hampers international trade however the large literature on this subject has not yet provided conclusive evidence this paper analyzes why it is so difficult to obtain a clear answer from time series analyses we use data on bilateral aggregate u s exports to the other g7 countries the results show that as far as the exchange rate is concerned export decisions are mostly affected by the probability distribution of the about one year ahead rate the riskiness of the exchange rate at such a long horizon appears fairly constant over time with only short term fluctuations this makes it difficult to discover the true effect of exchange rate risk on trade from the time series data that are typically available

international trade with forward futures markets under exchange rate and price uncertainty abstract the paper examines a risk averse firm s decisions on the level of trade when the exchange rate and the commodity price are uncertain and the extent of forward exchange and commodity futures commitments first we verify the separation theorem and the full double hedging theorem second we investigate the implications of the existence of both forward foreign exchange and commodity futures markets in comparison to the case where only one or no market is available to the firm the second exercise enables us to focus on conditions under which establishing forward futures arrangements promotes international trade

how do the renminbi and other east asian currencies co move abstract this paper investigates the degree and the nature of exchange rate co movements between the renminbi and a set of seven east asian currencies by estimating markov switching models with regime dependent correlations and time varying transition probabilities these models have several advantages first exchange rate co movements can vary across different depreciation and appreciation regimes second the renminbi can act as a transition variable that provides information regarding how the exchange rates evolve over time after controlling for global effects and exchange market pressures the results yield robust evidence of the renminbi s rising role in east asia as a significant factor in currency fluctuations a key result is that regional currencies tend to overreact when the renminbi depreciates and underreact when it appreciates suggesting that east asian economies are not willing to allow their currency to substantially appreciate against the chinese currency

exchange rate volatility and international trade the purpose of this note is to show that a positive effect of exchange rate volatility on export production has a theoretical basis the key to this claim is that as the exchange rate volatility increases so does the value of the real option to export to the world market higher volatility increases the potential gains from trade this may explain part of the mixed empirical findings regarding the effects of exchange rate risk on international trade

the parallel currency approach to asian monetary integration since the crisis of 1997 1998 there has been a proliferation of proposals for fostering asian monetary integration asian countries it is suggested should collectively peg their currencies to the dollar the yen or a dollar yen euro basket or establish a multilateral currency grid like the european monetary system ems the resulting exchange rate stability would promote intraregional trade simplify investment planning and encourage cross border participation in local bond markets experience with establishing and maintaining a system of stable exchange rates would help ready the region for the introduction of a single currency asia in this view should emulate europe s approach to regional monetary integration along with the attractions of the european example however there are also dangers defending a system of currency pegs in the presence of high capital mobility requires the close convergence of policies and the maintenance of confidence if either precondition is disturbed a country will require extensive financial support in order to defend its peg or to undertake an orderly realignment in practice asian countries possess neither the willingness to subordinate other policies to these imperatives nor the solidarity needed to offer extensive financial supports absent an appetite for political integration there is little readiness to create a regional central bank like the european central bank since there is no counterpart to the european parliament to hold it accountable for its actions hence there is little prospect of early monetary union to tie down expectations a system of asian currency pegs would consequently be fragile and crisis prone as a road to monetary unification it would be a dead end it would be better for governments to create an asian currency unit acu constituted as a weighted average of asian currencies and allow it to circulate alongside their national currencies this would have three advantages first it would not be necessary to stabilize exchange rates between the currencies comprising the basket hence fragility would be less second the parallel currency would be more stable than any one national currency in terms of aggregate asian production and exports it would thus be a vehicle for encouraging intraregional trade and investment third the decision to move to a single currency could be driven by economics rather than politics only when a critical mass of producers exporters and investors had adopted the parallel currency would it be clear that asian economies were ready for monetary unification

the comparative statics of cumulative distribution function changes for the class of risk averse agents abstract the primary question addressed is when does a particular change in the cumulative distribution function cdf describing a random variable always cause all risk averse decision makers to adjust the choice variable in the same direction a necessary and sufficient condition involving both the decision model and the cdf change is derived this condition allows the researcher to determine the tradeoff between assumptions on the economic model and the cdf changes which are necessary and or sufficient to yield determinate comparative static results several applications are included

economic effects of non binding price constraints for decades the conventional wisdom among economists has been that a non binding price floor or price ceiling has no effect whatsoever on the market equilibrium and quantity 1 this hypothesis rests on the shaky theoretical assumption that the competitive firm s perception of future market conditions is not altered when the government imposes a price control recent experiments by isaac and plott 6 and smith and williams 18 cast doubt on this conventional wisdom but they offer no theory to explain their findings similarly working 19 benedict 1 and johnson 8 alluded that price supports set below the market equilibrium price would distort the supply response offarmers without explaining why only lee 10 and eeckhoudt and hansen 4 have developed theories to explain why firms react this way lee used an intertemporal decision making model to show that a price ceiling implemented above the current price would affect both price and output in the current period however lee discussed only those cases where resources have a finite inventory non renewable resources which once depleted cannot be produced again following sandmo 15 ishii 7 and coes 3 eeckhoudt and hansen analyzed the restraining effects of minimum and maximum prices on a competitive firm using a static equilibrium model they explained the short run response of a utility maximizing firm to the imposition of price constraints however eeckhoudt and hansen were unable to sign the effect that a price ceiling has on the volume of industrial output furthermore they ignored all long run adjustments our model differs from the previous studies in that we assume firms maximize the market value of the firm in so doing we are able to determine both the short run and the long run effects that currently non binding price restrictions have on a competitive industry consider the conventional competitive market in which the long run equilibrium is achieved when all the firms in the industry have an expected net worth comparable to their next best alternative for simplicity assume a price floor pf is inacted that is lower than the current market price and will remain constant for the forseeable future furthermore assume the government agrees

competing for transparency political competition and institutional reform in mexican states why do political actors undertake reforms that constrain their own discretion we argue that uncertainty generated by political competition is a major driver of such reforms and test this argument using subnational data on mexican states adoption of state level access to information ati laws examining data from 31 mexican states plus the federal district we find that more politically competitive states passed ati laws more rapidly even taking into account the party in power levels of corruption civil society and other factors the fine grained nature of our data reflecting the staggered timing of elections inauguration dates and dates of passage allows us to distinguish between different theoretical mechanisms we find the greatest evidence in favor of an insurance mechanism by which incumbent parties who face uncertainty over future political control seek to ensure access to government information and means of monitoring incumbents in the future in case they lose power

exchange rate volatility and international trading strategy abstract it is usually argued that an increase in exchange rate volatility reduces the volume of international trade as trading firms are risk averse this paper shows that exporting firms benefit under fairly general conditions from an increase in exchange rate volatility firms optimally adjust their export volumes to the level of the exchange rate exporting is an option which is exercised if profitable in addition the paper presents conditions under which the volume of international trade grows with exchange rate volatility

just how low are china s labour costs this paper provides a new perspective on chinese international competitiveness in manufacturing using relative unit labour costadvantage than that implied by a comparison of wages alone china s cost advantage derives from large currency devaluations thas t preceded the establishment of a de facto peg around 1995 and rapid productivity growth in the period since 1995 we nd that chinese unit labour costs are about 25 40 per cent of us labour costs they are also low relative to costs in the eu japan mexico korea and most other newly industrialising countries however china s relative unit labour costs indicatea substantially smaller cost

interactions between agricultural and resource policy the importance of attitudes toward risk using a method proposed by meyer for deriving comparative statics results in the presence of risk this paper analyzes the effects of various agricultural and environmental policy alternatives on the choices of a risk averse producer with a just and pope production function many commonly held beliefs about policy effects are not supported unambiguously by economic theory for example a tax on pesticides will not necessarily reduce pesticide use or average output and a reduction in price of agricultural output will not necessarily lead to a reduction in use of water or agricultural chemicals

corruption in public service delivery experience from south asia s water and sanitation sector summary this paper presents empirical information regarding the types and magnitude of corrupt behaviors documented in water supply and sanitation service provision in several south asian localities it also examines the strengths and weaknesses of current strategies to reduce corruption among several public water and sanitation bureaucracies in south asia drawing on interviews and focus group discussions with more than 1 400 staff customers and key informants where corruption has been reduced two concomitant drivers are observed a shift in the accountability networks of service providers and a change in the work environment that increases the moral cost of misconduct 2003 elsevier ltd all rights reserved

public policy reform and informal institutions the political articulation of the demand for work in rural india summary the emphasis on rights that individual citizens can claim from the state represents a significant institutional development for poverty alleviation policies in india important legislation was passed in 2005 to guarantee rural households 100 days of work paid at a statutory wage rate this right to work legislation has enabled the implementation of the world s largest public works program the mahatma gandhi national rural employment guarantee scheme or nregs this study explores variation in policy outcomes under nregs within a rural district of north india uttar pradesh it finds that this variation is the product of the interaction between formal and informal institutions as such the demand for work benefits does not emerge spontaneously from self selecting rural citizens but is articulated by local elected officials who are pressurised to accommodate demands for rents from the bureaucracy specifically local elected officials are compelled to proceed to a selective activation of the demand for benefits to ensure the generation of a surplus which will form the basis of bureaucratic rent payments the study relies on qualitative data specifically interviews with past beneficiaries of the scheme bureaucrats tasked with policy implementation and elected village leaders the gram pradhans in the indian state of uttar pradesh to document the conditions under which a surplus is extracted and rent payments made the study shows that caste and political leadership structures at the local level affect the generation of surpluses and the payment of rents by gram pradhans to the bureaucracy while the right to work legislation represents progress for poverty alleviation policies such as nregs that emphasize rights and the expression of a demand for benefits need to consider more carefully the conditions under which this demand emerges as well as the ways in which discretionary authority can thwart the goals of public policy

the role of small firms in the technology development of china science technology s t is high on the chinese policy agenda and the country aims at becoming an innovation driven economy small firms have been important in technology development in other east asian countries but the situation in chinese small firms has been far less explored we examine how much s t has been accounted for by small firms and how their s t intensity differs across industries and ownership groups we also analyse how various firm characteristics differ over size categories and s t status this study is based on newly processed micro level data provided by the national bureau of statistics with information on a large number of s t indicators for manufacturing firms in china in 2000 and 2004 our results suggest that the role of small firms in chinese s t is similar to that in many other countries they account for a comparably small share of total s t and most small firms are not engaged in any s t however those small firms that do engage in s t tend to be more s t intensive and have a higher output in terms of patents than larger chinese s t firms

machine replacement and the business cycle lumps and bumps this paper explores investment fluctuations due to discrete changes in a plant s capital stock the resulting aggregate investment dynamics are surprisingly rich reflecting the interaction between a replacement cycle the cross sectional distribution of the age of the capital stock and an aggregate shock using plant level data lumpy investment is procyclical and more likely for older capital further the predicted path of aggregate investment that neglects vintage effects tracks actual aggregate investment reasonably well however ignoring fluctuations in the cross sectional distribution of investment vintages can yield predictable nontrivial errors in forecasting changes in aggregate investment

household behavior under income uncertainty in a monocentric urban area abstract for a household living outside of but commuting to and from the cbd of an urban area and experiencing income uncertainty housing consumption and location distance from the cbd are inversely related to the probability of unemployment and directly related to the level of unemployment compensation under fairly unrestrictive assumptions under more restrictive assumptions it is found that these variables are inversely related to housing price and transportation costs finally income compensation causes housing consumption and location to be directly related to the probability of unemployment and the level of unemployment compensation

exchange rate volatility international trade and the value of exporting firms abstract increased exchange rate volatility positively affects the value of exporting firms via the price and volume impacts of exchange rates and also makes an exporting strategy more attractive relative to the direct investment investment in export production capacity could therefore be a positive function of exchange rate volatility firms would also be more willing to sustain losses i e to engage in dumping before they abandon their export markets the effect on the volume and value of trade is ambiguous

mean variance preferences and investor behaviour we study the comparative statics implications of mean variance preferences for optimal portfolios specifically we show that all risk averse mean variance investors raise their investment in a risky asset in response to a change in that asset s return distribution if and only if the change lowers both the mean and standard deviation of the return by the same percentage besides being of interest in its own right our results allow us to compare some comparative statics implications and the expected utility and mean variance models systematically

exchange rate volatility and pakistan s exports to the developed world 1974 85 abstract the paper attempts to estimate the impact of exchange rate uncertainty on pakistan s exports to the developed world for 1974 85 discovering strong evidence to suggest that exports were adversely affected by the increased variability of its bilateral exchange rates unlike much of the recent evidence on developed countries however it is the variability in nominal rather than real exchange rates that is significant the computations also suggest the presence of strong third country effects

stochastically dominating shifts and the competitive firm abstract the production responses of the competitive firm to stochastically dominating shifts in the distribution of output price have been the object of much research in a recent paper simpson and sproule metroeconomica 51 2 2000 168 181 present five sets of sufficient conditions any one of which may be used to jointly sign the production responses of the competitive firm to first second and third order stochastically dominating shifts this paper demonstrates that one of the conditions outlined in the above mentioned reference is unnecessarily restrictive in the case of the logarithmic and the positive power utility functions

economic backwardness in political perspective government policies and institutions shape economic incentives and via this channel have a first order impact on economic development why then do many societies adopt policies that discourage investment and maintain institutions that cause economic backwardness perhaps politically powerful groups elites are not in favor of economic growth but why it would appear that economic growth would provide more resources for these groups to take over or tax increasing their economic returns so why don t powerful groups always support economic development in this paper we develop a theory of inefficient government policies and institutions all else equal politically powerful groups would welcome superior institutions and technologies but in practice all else is not equal because superior institutions and technologies may reduce their political power and make it more likely that they will be replaced at the center of our theory is therefore the idea that changes in institutions or the introduction of new technologies often create turbulence eroding the political advantages and future economic rents of incumbent elites alternatively new technologies may enrich competing groups increasing their threat to incumbents these considerations make politically powerful groups fear losing power and oppose economic and political change even when such change will benefit society as a whole to understand the mechanism at work and its potential applications consider a concrete example industrialization in the nineteenth century bairoch 1982 estimates that between 1830 and 1913 world manufacturing output increased by a factor of 5 see table 1 panel a nevertheless this process was highly uneven across regions and countries bairoch also calculates that over the same period manufacturing output in developed countries europe and north america increasedbyafactorofover10 whereasitdeclinedinthe third world among developed countries there were

exchange rate volatility and intra asia trade evidence by type of goods this paper examines the impact of intra asia exchange rate volatility on intra asia trade in primary goods intermediate goods equipment goods and consumption goods from 1980 to 2009 for asia the evidence shows that as intraregional exchange rate volatility increases intraregional exports in these goods fall this adverse impact is even more pronounced in the subregion of association of southeast asian nations asean 5 comprising asean member countries plus the people s republic of china hong kong china japan the republic of korea and taipei china and especially among intermediate and equipment exports again the impact magnifies in an even smaller subgroup excluding the smaller asean economies these results underline the significant impact of exchange rate volatility on the region s production networks for south asia however exchange rate volatility appears to have a positive impact on exports still caution is warranted given that south asian economies trade relatively little with each other

the impact of exchange rate volatility on international trade flows despite the best efforts of economists a basic paradox as to the impact of exchange rate volatility on trade flows remains unresolved at both the theoretical and empirical level this paper surveys the vast literature in the area in an attempt to identify major issues which have contributed to the development of the debate and examine whether any general direction for consensus may be found

why is china so competitive measuring and explaining china s competitiveness this paper evaluates factors responsible for the competitiveness of china in the world economy and relative to its east asian rivals china has been highly successful in capturing world export markets chinese competitiveness is not just a matter of an undervalued exchange and extremely low labor costs it reflects primarily the coincidence of favorable cost conditions with improvements in china s ability to produce products that meet world market specifications these improvements are closely related to foreign participation in china s economy through foreign direct investment and joint venture enterprises

unstable politics fiscal space and electoral volatility in the indian states what explains variations in electoral volatility the authors argue that fiscal space availability of financial resources to enact policy initiatives and provide public programs possessed by govern

exchange rate policy options for post crisis southeast asia is there a case for currency baskets following the recent financial crises in southeast asia and elsewhere the perennial issue of the exchange rate policy options for small and open developing countries has resurfaced there seems to be an emerging consensus that the frequency with which soft pegs have been susceptible to speculative attacks in this era of escalating global capital flows has increased pressure for developing countries to adopt corner exchange rate regimes this paper takes issue with this popular one size fits all prescription of exchange rate arrangements for developing countries and explores exchange rate policy options for post crisis southeast asia the principal purpose of this paper is to discuss the case for currency baskets as a general regime in its own right for southeast asia as opposed to being a compromise between the two corner solutions

has exchange risk depressed international trade the impact of third country exchange risk abstract this paper argues that the effect of exchange risk on bilateral and aggregate trade flows should be analyzed by including the impact of third country exchange risk factors in addition to direct bilateral or multilateral risk after a theoretical examination of these effects us bilateral export flow to its six largest trading partners are analyzed empirically i find individuality and jointly significant third country risk effects in most cases in contrast to some recent bilateral efforts i find a steadily growing negative impact on trade flows from exchange risk during floating and in contrast to recent aggregate trade flow studies i conclude that there was no temporary decline in exchange risk during the late 1970s

exchange rate variability and trade why is it so difficult to find any empirical relationship this paper discusses why previous literature has found little evidence of any effect of exchange rate variability on international trade methodological and statistical issues are discussed in particular comparisons are made of estimations based on different specifications or using different data sets and changes in the results depending on the method used are shown

the market for public office why the indian state is not better at development abstract how and why officials are transferred from one post to another can in india does have far reaching consequences for the effectiveness of public service organizations such as irrigation agriculture forestry and soil conservation departments the transfer mechanism used in many departments of indian states involves a kind of internal labor market a truer market than in the way that term is often used by labor market economists it allows pressures for corrupt behavior to bear down on the incumbents of certain posts and itself amplifies those pressures frequently the pressures on officials to be corrupt cause them to behave in ways contrary to the ostensible objectives of their departments why is the indian state not better at promoting development to an important degree because of the corruption transfer mechanism and its effects on bureaucratic initiatives