economic growth and structure of domestic absorption evidence from internationally comparable data abstract using the chenery syrquin models of structural change and internationally comparable data on gdp per capita and shares of consumption investment and government spending for the 1960s and the 1970s a study is conducted of changes in the structure of domestic absorption that accompany economic growth relative to the conventional data real data indicate the fall in the share of consumption to be somewhat lower and the rise in the share of investment to be larger as gdp per capita rises the share of government is observed to decline although most previous studies indicate an increase in government share with economic growth

tax structure and growth are some taxes better than others using pooled cross sectional data from 23 oecd countries between1965 and 1990 i find evidence that the tax structure affectseconomic growth specifically the proportion of tax revenueraised by taxing personal income has a negative correlation witheconomic growth this result is robust to a rigorous sensitivityanalysis where i control for other plausible growth determinantsin a systematic manner also there is some empirical evidencethat tax progressivity measured in terms of the long run incomeelasticity of tax revenue is associated with low economicgrowth

risk premiums for decision regret some people find decision making under uncertainty difficult because they fear making the wrong decision wrong in the sense that the outcome of their chosen alternative proves to be worse than could have been achieved with another alternative these people may be willing to pay a premium to avoid consequences that produce this decision regret this paper continues an earlier investigation into the normative implications of decision regret and looks at situations where the joint probability distribution of consequences between alternatives is not specified at the time of the decision it includes a discussion of cases where the outcomes produced by alternatives not chosen are never resolved a consequence of this model of preferences for risky situations is that two components of risk aversion may be identified decreasing marginal value and regret aversion

or forum perspectives on utility theory utility theory is a branch of decision analysis that is concerned with building models to explain and guide choice behavior under uncertainty in situations in which long run expected values are too simplistic beginning with bernoulli in the 18th century researchers have tried to analyze how people do and how people should make decisions when risk aversion is a factor in this paper we review some recent developments in the area

inflation and economic growth a multi country empirical analysis the world eocnomy is currently adjusting to a low inflation regime which has implicastions for the cross country distribution of world growth opportunities in contrast to previous related work which assumes unidirectional causality this paper uses the granger methodology to examine both the direction and pattern of causality between inflation and economic growth in 70 countries using annual data over the period 1960 89 among the conclusions are that first the relationship between inflation and growth is non uniform across countries 40 of countries studied reveal no causality one third exhibit unidirectional causality and about one fifth of countries show bidirectional causality second a vast majority of countries which show either uni or bi directional causality beong to the industrial group and third the low world inflation regime will on balance redistribute real growth opportunities benefit away from the developing countries towards the industrialized countries

risk and the value of bt corn a conceptual model is developed to evaluate the effect of bt corn on risk results highlight the importance of distinguishing between marginal and aggregate risk effects and demonstrate that the effect of bt corn on risk depends crucially on the price paid for the technology empirical results show that depending on the price bt corn can be marginally risk increasing or decreasing and can either increase or decrease corn acreage also depending on the price bt corn can provide a risk benefit to farmers even when bt corn is risk increasing bt corn is genetically engineered to produce a protein found in the soil bacterium bacillus thuringiensis bt the protein is toxic to lepidopterous insects such as the european

do firms pay efficiency wages evidence with data at the firm level this study tests the efficiency wage hypothesis by estimating wage and quit equations with data from the employment opportunity pilot project survey of firms an efficiency wage model is derived that predicts effects of turnover costs and unemployment on wages as functions of first and second derivatives from the quit equation the model is tested by examining the relationships between the coefficients in the wage and quit equations the results are generally favorable to efficiency wage theory other important findings are that firm characteristics raising workers productivity tend to raise wages and that a rise in turnover costs reduces quits

wage distortion and resource allocation under uncertainty the effects of uncertainty on resource allocation have been examined in a two sector general equilibrium model of production constructing a model in which firms are risk indifferent and face uncertainty regarding the use of capital rothenberg and smith 9 considered the implications of uncertainty for welfare resource allocation and income distribution their model was refined by batra 3 to permit uncertainty in production to influence the firms decisions to hire both capital and labor batra s approach appears to be more general in that producers are assumed to be risk averse in lieu of risk neutral the writing of this paper is inspired by batra s contributions 2 3 batra s well known intermediate run equilibrium model is reformulated to allow for wage distortion utilizing the model several issues regarding the effects of changes in factor supplies in commodity prices and in the degree of wage distortion will be examined factor market distortions in the absence of uncertainty have been studied extensively in literature 2 their impacts on resource allocation in stochastic environment have not been explored however we argue that the introduction of the wage differential has a major impact on batra s results first relative value factor intensities generally replace relative physical factor intensities in determining signs of

adjustment to production uncertainty and the theory of the firm this paper considers the behavior of the firm which faces uncertainty in its production process but can adjust its output once the uncertainty is resolved ex post adjustment unlike previous treatments involves a marginal cost penalty if more output is required and a lowering of price if too much is produced with ex post adjustment allowed in this fashion it is found that nonlinear risk preferences do not affect the sign of the firm s marginal risk premium at optimum ex ante output the firm will produce less output than under certainty whether it is risk averse risk neutral or prefers risk

a comparative evaluation of multiattribute consumer preference models in this paper the theory and estimation procedures for several consumer preference models are discussed predictive accuracy in the form of internal consistency of these models is compared in an empirical application consumer decision situations are classified into two classes decisions under certainty and decisions under uncertainty for each of the two classes of decision situations two modeling strategies have been used statistical estimation and algebraic solution an additive conjoint an additive and a multiplicative measurable value and an additive and a multiplicative utility model are considered our main finding is that the statistical estimation procedures outperform their algebraic counterparts on the criterion of predictive accuracy the utility model provides better predictions for decisions under uncertainty than the widely used conjoint models the relationship between models for decisions under certainty and decisions under uncertainty is discussed it is shown how a conjoint or a mea

production risk and optimal input decisions the paper examines the impact of production risk on a producer s optimal input decisions whether producers use more or fewer inputs in a yield risky environment depends on the sign of the marginal risk premium which is determined by risk preferences and technology i present the weakest condition on technology that is sufficient to sign the marginal risk premium for all risk averse preferences if this condition fails to hold the marginal risk premium is not of the same sign for all risk averters results are used to explore the properties of an estimated technology

joint risk preference technology estimation with a primal system applied studies of the firm in a risky environment have concentrated either on the firm s technology or on its risk preferences these models result in generally inconsistent and inefficient parameter estimates a primal model is proposed which allows a firm s preferences and technology to be estimated jointly in the presence of risk the model is applied to iowa corn production and estimated technology parameters are compared with those from other approaches modest risk aversion leads to inelastic even backbending per acre supplies and input demands yield heteroskedasticity in inputs leads to supply heteroskedasticity in prices especially for risk neutral firms

production uncertainty and the market equilibrium of the competitive firm abstract assumptions outputs are planned ex ante by risk neutral firms actual outputs are stochastic with variance function of planned output production costs are function of planned outputs while the market linear demand function is stable if individual outputs as positively correlated expected profit is decreased by the negative covariance between output and price the firms and market equilibria are analyzed in the short run and the long run with varying number of firms they are compared with oi s and tisdell s uncertain demand models

government and economic growth in the less developed countries an empirical study for 1960 1980 adam smith founded modern economics with a powerful argument that free markets are the best route to prosperity and economic growth his conclusion has been studied and debated by economists ever since including nobel prize winners friedman hayek kuznets lewis myrdal and schultz whatever economists have concluded since world war ii the majority of the less developed countries seem to have opted for extensive government regulation of the private sector and for a large public sector has the large government role slowed or accelerated the growth of ldcs obviously this is an important issue this study looks at government expenditure revenue raising and regulation greater emphasis is put on expenditure because 1 the revenue raised is presumably a function of the level of expenditure and 2 there are few internationally comparable measures of regulation there are virtually no empirical studies of the general impact of government on economic growth an extensive literature search turned up only three papers gemmell analyzed the impact of nonmarket sector growth on various measures of macroeconomic performance for 27 ldcs and developed countries for 1960 and 1970 he drew no general conclusions about the relation between the size of the nonmarket sector and economic growth marsden found a negative relation between tax gdp ratios and economic growth for a cross section of 20 ldcs and developed countries for the 1970 79 period 2 i found a negative relationship between the share of government consumption expenditure in gdp and the growth of per capita gdp for a cross section of 96 ldcs and developed countries over various time periods between 1961 and 1976 3 this paper extends the approach used in my 1983 article

the competitive firm with uncertainty in the rate of labor turnover the adoption of more sophisticated production techniques usually requires firms to increase their expenditures on worker training and to pay greater attention to the costs of labor turnover economists are beginning to explicitly incorporate both training expenditures and the rate of labor turnover into the theory of the firm at the same time they are extending the theory of the firm to cases in which the firm faces uncertainty in its environment for example uncertainty in the price of output the prices of inputs or the quantity of output that a given input mix will yield this paper seeks to extend both of these areas of research by first introducing uncertainty in the rate of labor turnover and then examining the consequences of this new form of uncertainty for optimal training expenditures the optimal wage and the optimal level of output at the firm the paper assumes that the firm can increase output by providing workers with more training and can discourage turnover by paying workers a higher wage the quantities of labor and capital that the firm employs are held constant throughout the analysis it is found that the introduction of uncertainty in the rate of labor turnover results in lower optimal expenditures for both training and wages the reduction in training also reduces the level of output per worker at the firm comparative static analysis of ceteris paribus changes in the mean and variance of the labor turnover rate are also performed an increase in the mean of the turnover rate with the variance held constant reduces the wage and the amount of training provided also an increase in the variance of the turnover rate with the mean held constant reduces the wage and the amount of training provided a number of authors have considered models of the competitive firm in which the firm must determine its output level in the presence of uncertainty sandmo 13 batra and ullah 2 hartman 7 ishii 9 ingene and yu 8 flacco 5 and many others consider the behavior of the competitive firm facing uncertainty in its output price blair 3 ratti and ullah 12 stewart 15 perrakis 11 macminn and holtman 10 and many others consider cases in which the firm faces uncertainty in its technology or factor prices in all of these models it is assumed that the firm must make its input and output decisions before the uncertainty is resolved without ex

risk aversion and yield uncertainty in duality models of production a mean variance approach a duality model of production is developed that endogenizes stochastic output decisions under risk aversion the model incorporates both yield and price uncertainty and nonlinear mean variance risk preferences this permits modeling of the firm s expected output supply and input demand decisions under risk and also in principle the firm s output variance decisions the duality model is tractable for empirical research

strength of preference and risky choice this paper provides conditions under which a utility function under risk can be legitimately interpreted to measure strength of preference between consequences these conditions require that if a decision maker regards the preference difference between acts a and b to be the same as the preference difference between acts a and b for every state of the world then the preference difference between a and b should be regarded as equivalent to the preference difference between a and b a key assumption is that a decision maker s preference differences between acts given one state of the world should be independent of common consequences given other states of the world usefulness of this result is discussed

forward market equilibrium economists have long been interested in the functioning of forward futures markets keynes and hicks were the first to write persuasively in support of the theory of normal backwardation this theory says the futures price is biased downward relative to the expected future spot price as a means of compensating speculators for taking long futures positions 12 8 in this theory speculators are viewed as providing insurance to hedgers who desire to take short futures positions to reduce the riskiness of their commodity holdings in addition to normal backwardation there are theories of unbiasedness and normal contango the unbiasedness theory says that the futures price equals the expected spot price while the normal contango theory says that the futures price exceeds the expected spot price 4 19 21 however the controversy over the three theories has not been entirely resolved it has been suggested 4 19 that each of the three theories could be applicable at various points during the planting harvesting processing cycle of a crop as the net hedging demand shifts from a large number of hedgers who desire to be short in the futures market to a large number of individuals who are long hedgers nonetheless the traditional theories of futures markets have been criticized because they are not grounded in a general equilibrium model where participants tastes endowments and beliefs interact so as to generate a market equilibrium incorporating both speculative and non speculative transactions 9 it is the purpose of this paper to provide a framework within which normal contango normal backwardation and unbiasedness can each occur for commodities which have certain well specified characteristics independent of the relative numbers of participants on each side of the futures market in the spirit of 9 we consider the major source of uncertainty to be technological in nature quantity risk and argue that the commonly used definitions of hedger one who sells forward some fraction of his crop yield and speculator are not very useful for economic analysis instead the more generally applicable concept of hedger as one who trades mean income for reductions in risk in the rothschild stiglitz sense 17 is supported because it

methodological aspects of multi criteria decision analysis for policy support a case study on pharmaceutical removal from hospital wastewater abstract decision making in public and political contexts can be complex multi attribute value utility theory mavt maut can support such decision processes by providing a transparent framework that helps focusing on objectives and corresponding degrees of achievement by different alternatives eliciting preferences with mavt maut can be time consuming and cognitively challenging therefore it might not be feasible to elicit full preference functions with standard methods to deal with this problem we suggest a simplified elicitation procedure that combines a the elicitation of values instead of utilities at lower levels of the objectives hierarchy and conversion to utilities to consider risk attitudes at appropriate higher levels b the use of linear value functions for sub objectives with minor effects on the overall value and c sensitivity analyses to check the robustness of results regarding these assumptions and the elicitation process in general furthermore we developed a modified swing procedure reversed swing to elicit weights for cases in which the hypothetical alternatives of the conventional swing technique are unrealistic we applied this procedure to a case study on pharmaceutical removal from wastewater of a typical swiss hospital involving 13 stakeholders aim of the interdisciplinary research group was to assess a large bundle of combinations of novel point source measures the ultimate policy objective was to develop consensus solutions which are acceptable to all important stakeholder groups we hope that the suggested simplified procedure stimulates the application of transparent and conceptually satisfying decision support methods in environmental management which is needed to justify policy decisions to the public

further toward a theory of agricultural insurance the economic theory of contracts is applied to agricultural insurance to show that given full information pareto optimal insurance contracts are actuarially fair provide full coverage and differ for each individual the information problems of moral hazard and adverse selection prevent pareto optimality from being attained several second best solutions to these problems are applied to agricultural insurance it is shown that information collection and the application of contract design principles are second best solutions which may achieve the benefits of insurance at less cost than the current practice of public subsidies in theory agricultural insurance is an efficient risk sharing mechanism in practice however agricultural insurance has been a costly means of transferring risk from farmers to governments and or other insurers to induce farmers to participate in agricultural insurance governments have borne significant subsidy costs hazell pomareda and valdes p 295 in a recent study ahsan ali and kurian aak concluded that public subsidies are necessary to make agricultural insurance viable they also showed that insurance will increase output relative to a case with no insurance thus insurance is beneficial particularly in less developed countries where increasing food supplies is a policy goal for this reason they concluded that public subsidization of insurance also is desirable their conclusions are derived from a simplified model of production with one output and one input in this article we consider a more general production model with multiple inputs and outputs we show that aak s conclusion about the benefits of insurance may not hold depending on the nature of the inputs and outputs as defined by the production function carl h nelson is an assistant professor of agricultural economics

advantage to a risk neutral firm of flexible resources under demand uncertainty this paper shows that flexible resources resources that can be resold or switched between productive processes are valuable to firms facing uncertain demand it is assumed that the firm must make its input purchase decision before the demand for its final product is known it is this differential in timing of the purchase of inputs versus selling of outputs which is the special problem confronted in this paper and which makes the existence of a flexible resource valuable to the firm stigler in a 1939 article recognized that in a risky environment there are advantages to resources which are flexible but did not provide an optimizing model in his analysis 4 others such as turnovsky 5 appelbaum and lim 1 sheppard 3 and epstein 2 have examined this timing problem and have recognized as we do that in a market characterized by uncertainty a firm will face a trade off between efficiency and flexibility 1 39 however the issue of the advantage of flexible resources under uncertainty has not been directly examined usually because the focus has been on outputs rather than inputs 1 or on attitudes toward risk even when input choice is responsive to uncertainty as in epstein 2 the inputs are not flexible in our sense because it is only the timing of input purchase which is flexible not the uses to which inputs can be assigned of the several ways uncertainty in demand can be conceptualized for the firm these papers have commonly considered a situation where it is the product price which is uncertain 2 5 in contrast this paper assumes that while price is known the quantity demanded is uncertain this allows us to consider a slightly different kind of firm from the previous work the firm is assumed to be a pure price taker it might be in an oligopolistic industry where total industry demand is known but the market share for each firm has yet to be revealed 2 or the firm might be in a regulated industry where prices are set and all market adjustments come on the quantity side

theory of the firm under the threat of input supply interruption economists have been intrigued by the behavior of firms under different types of risk and uncertainty relatively recently there has been a particular interest in the theory of production under input uncertainty perhaps as a reflection of the energy supply disruptions experienced in the 1970s nevertheless this literature concentrates on the firm s production decisions when the uncertainty stems from stochastic input deliveries or from the production process itself this paper extends the stochastic input analysis to the monopolistic firm operating under the threat of input supply interruption turnovsky 8 presents some results pertaining to production decisions under input supply uncertainty he examines the risk neutral competitive firm s response to a randomly delivered input allowing the firm to reject excess order deliveries martin 6 examines the competitive firm s optimal short run response to stochastic deliveries where the entire input deliveries cannot exceed orders in these frameworks random deliveries can stem from internal sources such as machine failures or external sources such as unanticipated input market shocks and transportation breakdowns both studies demonstrate that the uncertainty induces a stochastic input ordering bias by the firm while turnovsky 8 finds that the existence of uncertainty in one input supply will not alter the optimal order of the nonstochastic input this is the so called input independence result martin 6 finds that the effect of the uncertainty on the nonstochastic input orders will depend upon the inputs relationship in production in this paper as in turnovsky s and martin s papers the supply of one perishable input is stochastic unlike the existing models however the ex post input supply under the threat of interruption is dichotomous either interruption occurs in which case none of the input is delivered to the firm or interruption does not occur in which case the entire input order is delivered to the firm also the existing work by turnovsky 8 and martin 6 concentrates on the competitive firm whereas this paper focuses on the monopolistic firm s behavior under factor supply uncertainty 2

money and the bias of technical progress in the literature on the behaviour of a monetary economy it has been suggested that in addition to its role as a medium of exchange the role of money in production should be recognized explicityliy however on this latter point there is some disagreement as to the mechanism by which it affects production for example mundell 1971 bailey and friedman 1969 attribute direct productivity to money and consequently sugest that is should be treated as a separate facto of production on the other hand brunner and meltzer 1971 perlman 1971 stein 1971 gabor and pearce 1958 saving 1972 and moroney 1970 emphasize the role of money as an innovational factor while the reasoning varies the basic idea is that the use of money enhances efficiencies of capital and labour in other words money acts as an input augmenting factor in a recent paper subrahmanyam and cosimano 1979 using data on the indian economy for 1950 51 1969 70 and the ces production function framework have tried to test t

technological uncertainty and the theory of the firm several recent articles 1 6 have generalized the theory of the firm to incorporate price uncertainty and risk aversion it is now well known that the risk averse entrepreneur will select that level of output at which the expected price equals the marginal cost plus the marginal risk premium leland 5 provides a similar generalization given demand uncertainty however in each case the assumption of a well specified technology is maintained this paper complements and generalizes the earlier work on the theory of the firm by investigating the effect which technological uncertainty has on the firm s optimal production decision like the earlier work on the theory of the firm we show that the firm selects the level of input at which the expected marginal productivity equals the factor price plus the marginal risk premium unlike the earlier work we show that the sign of the marginal risk premium is not always positive and that it depends on the structure of the firm s technology we show that the distinction between price and technological uncertainty is important because each can lead to different implications for firm behavior like its predecessors the model of the firm presented here assumes a single ownerentrepreneur who makes the production decision we modify the baron and sandmo models by assuming that the entrepreneur knows the cost of each production decision but not the output as a result the entrepreneur s decision yields a random variable denoting output and a linear transformation of it denoting profit the entrepreneur chooses the random variable denoting profit to maximize his expected utility there are at least three distinct ways in which our notion of technological uncertainty may be interpreted first the entrepreneur may not know the location of the production surface in this case each production decision yields a random output an increase in the

a note on adjustment to production uncertainty and the theory of the firm this paper analyzes the impact of production uncertainty on the firm s optimal output decision if uncertainty is introduced by an additive risk variable then short run optimal output is unchanged but the owner manager s expected utility can change causing long run output effects if uncertainty is introduced by a multiplicative random variable then short run output can change as well

tests for the role of risk aversion on input use for risk averting agents risks alter production decisions while the existence of institutions to insure against adverse states of nature will likely restore decisions toward levels under risk neutrality in this article conditions are identified on a stochastic technology to test h that risk averters choose smaller input levels than risk neutral agents and h that an increase in risk aversion reduces input use a robust statistical method to test for dominance is adapted to stochastic production relations it is found that h is likely true for nitrogen application on iowa corn weaker evidence is found in favor of h

labor turnover wage structures and moral hazard the inefficiency of competitive markets a multiperiod general equilibrium model of the labor market is developed in which risk averse workers are faced with job related uncertainty and labor turnover is costly if a worker is unlucky and suffers a bad job match he quits and joins another firm hoping that he will like its work environment more because the quality of a job match is unobservable workers cannot insure against the risk of a bad match the firm provides implicit insurance against job dissatisfaction typically by paying workers more than their net marginal products in their early years with the firm and less subsequently since the probabilities of the insured against events the quit rates over time are affected by the amount of such insurance provided this implicit insurance is characterized by moral hazard individuals quit when in the absence of insurance they would not the equilibrium contract balances out efficiency in risk bearing with efficiency in turnover incentives we show that the equilibrium contract is not con