policy uncertainty and household savings using german microdata and a quasi natural experiment we provide evidence on how households respond to an increase in uncertainty we find that household saving increases significantly following the increase in political uncertainty observed in the run up to the 1998 german general election we also find evidence of a labor supply response by workers who can use the margin offered by part time employment our results are suggestive of the economic effects of wars of attrition when political disagreement leads to delays in adopting a reform or the possibility that earlier reforms may be revoked the increased uncertainty could slow the economy

welfare analysis and intertemporal substitution abstract this paper explores the structure of welfare comparisons when direct utility is weakly separable over time the lifetime welfare effect of a reform is then the sum of atemporal hicksian variations and intertemporal variations reflecting intertemporal substitution these latter are shown to be of only second order importance in lifetime welfare comparisons approximations to the intertemporal variations when preferences are intertemporally additive are derived pointing to the welfare significance in this context of not only the intertemporal elasticity of substitution but also within period income effects numerical examples illustrate the analysis and suggest possible orders of magnitude

structural estimation of stock market participation costs abstract this paper develops and estimates a dynamic model of stock market participation where consumers decisions regarding stock market participation are influenced by participation costs the practical significance of the participation costs is considered as being a channel through which financial education programs can affect consumers investment decisions using household data from the panel study of income dynamics i estimate the magnitude of the participation cost allowing for individual heterogeneity in it the results show the average stock market participation cost is about 4 6 of labor income however it varies substantially over consumers life the model successfully predicts the level of the observed participation rate and the increasing pattern of stock market participation over the consumers life cycle

competition between private and public schools vouchers and peer group effects a theoretical and computational model with tax financed tuition free public schools and competitive tuition financed private schools is developed students differ by ability and income achievement depends on own ability and on peers abilities equilibrium has a strict hierarchy of school qualities and two dimensional student sorting with stratification by ability and income in private schools high ability low income students receive tuition discounts while low ability high income students pay tuition premia tuition vouchers increase the relative size of the private sector and the extent of student sorting and benefit high ability students relative to low ability students

how teachers unions affect education production this study helps to explain why measured school inputs appear to have little effect on student outcomes particularly for cohorts educated since 1960 teachers unionization can explain how public schools simultaneously can have more generous inputs and worse student performance using panel data on united states school districts i identify the effect of teachers unionization through differences in the timing of collective bargaining especially timing determined by the passage of state laws that facilitate teachers unionization i find that teachers unions increase school inputs but reduce productivity sufficiently to have a negative overall effect on student performance union effects are magnified where schools have market power

household debt and monetary policy revealing the cash flow channel we study the effect of monetary policy on spending when households hold debt with variable interest rates when interest rates on outstanding loans vary with the short term market interest rate monetary policy has a direct and immediate effect on households expenses and disposable income if households are borrowing constrained they will respond to a shock to disposable income by adjusting their spending as a result a monetary policy induced interest rate change leads to a larger change in consumption than what is predicted by the elasticity of intertemporal substitution we examine this cash flow channel of monetary policy using administrative data on swedish households we estimate a strong and statistically significant response in spending to changes in interest expenses more specifically we estimate a marginal propensity to consume including durable consumption that is around unity or even higher in response to monetary policy induced changes in interest expenses for example highly indebted households with adjustable rate mortgages reduce consumption growth by several percentage points more in response to a one percentage point increase in the household interest rate than households with little debt or fixed rate mortgages our findings imply that monetary policy will have a stronger effect on real economic activity when households are highly indebted and have adjustable rate mortgages jel classification d14 e21 e52 g11

estimating consumption from expenditure data abstract most studies of distributional issues have focused on the distribution of income but the income information usually available suffers from well known deficiencies this paper explores an alternative approach to distributional analysis based instead on expenditure data in many countries including the united kingdom available household budget data provides information on expenditures only over a short period the problems that consequently arise in interpreting data of this sort are emphasised a general specification for the stochastic structure of expenditure data is presented and a procedure for estimating participant households underlying consumption from their observed expenditures developed and discussed

public pension programmes and the retirement of married couples in denmark in this paper we study the economic determinants of the joint retirement process of married couples we propose a tractable dynamic discrete choice model for retirement decisions which allows for non trivial saving behaviour we estimate the model on a 1 sample of danish couples of potential retirement age drawn from a population based administrative register the introduction and subsequent reforms of a publicly financed early retirement programme provide us with variation in the data to insure identification of the parameters of interest the elasticities of participation retirement with respect to income flows our estimates imply a significant asymmetry in the sensitivity of retirement behaviour of men and women with respect to variation in their own or their spouse s income flows

expanding the life cycle model precautionary saving and public policy one of the key puzzles in understanding saving behavior is not so much why people save the title of this session but why people don t save according to the familiar life cycle model households should accumulate wealth to provide for their retirement consumption the surprising result from the data is the sizable fraction of the population who have accumulated so little even among those nearing retirement given that earnings will almost surely decline when households retire such behavior can imply poor living standards for the elderly some might interpret the low wealth accumulation as being evidence of myopia irrationality or a failure of households to enforce mental accounting richard thaler 1994 while others might view the low level of wealth accumulation as evidence of high individual rates of time preference determining the underlying causes of low wealth is crucial for public policies that seek to alleviate low aggregate saving rates in the united states as well as policies that seek to buttress the adequacy of financial resources for the elderly in this paper we outline what we believe to be the causes of why many people do not save we conclude by speculating about government policies that may be most effective at encouraging saving much of the research examining levels of consumption saving and wealth as well as their responsiveness to policy has been done using a life cycle model with the simplifying assumption of perfect certainty alan auerbach and laurence kotlikoff 1987 for example developed a model with 55 overlapping generations of individual lifecycle households each with empirically plausible age earnings profiles and utility parameters and used the model to address tax policy and demographic issues in a regime in which all households are identical within a generation and all generations know future earnings and interest rates more recently a line of inquiry has examined the effects of uncertainty on saving generally in the context of highly stylized models this research has shown that in these models uninsured earnings uncertainty can alter optimal saving behavior in a variety of important ways for a partial review of this precautionary saving literature see hubbard et al 1994 in two recent papers hubbard et al 1993 1994 we have combined these two strands of the literature by examining the implications of a life cycle model of consumption saving and wealth accumulation subject to what we think are the three most important sources of uninsured idiosyncratic risk facing households uncertainty about earnings medical expenses and length of life our intent has been to create a realistic model in which families live for many periods working for part of their lives and retiring later in life to parameterize the uncertainty facing families we estimate tdiscussants christopher carroll federal reserve board john b shoven stanford university laurence kotlikoff boston university

examination performance in scottish secondary schools an ordered logit approach this paper analyses the determinants of educational outcomes for scottish secondary schools using an ordered logit model with data on school examination performance for pupils in the last year of compulsory education separate equations are estimated for 1993 1994 and 1998 1999 the empirical results in line with previous british studies underline the importance of family peer group and school influences in determining educational outcomes they cast doubt however on suggestions that there is an optimal size of school

great moderation and great recession from plain sailing to stormy seas many have argued that the great recession of 2008 marks the end of the great moderation of the eighties and nineties this paper shows this is not the case through painstaking empirical analysis of the data output volatility remains subdued despite the tumult created by the great recession this nding has important implications for policymaking since a lower volatility of output the hallmark of the great moderation is associated with lower recoveries jel classication c22 e32

output composition and the us output volatility decline abstract we argue that the role played by output composition changes on the decline in us output volatility has been incorrectly assessed in recent literature we obtain that shifts across broad sectors in the economy account for about 30 of the volatility decline since the 1950s

does the choice of consumption measure matter an application to the permanent income hypothesis abstract food consumption in the panel study of income dynamics is used as a proxy for total consumption in many applications in economics including tests of the permanent income hypothesis tests of separability between consumption and leisure and tests of intergenerational altruism food however explains only a small fraction of the variation in total consumption i propose a measure of composite consumption based on predicted wealth and compare it both to food consumption and to skinner s 1987 measure of predicted consumption in a test of the permanent income hypothesis using a log linear intertemporal consumption function i find that food does not reject the permanent income hypothesis but both skinner s predicted consumption and the composite measure proposed here to reject the hypothesis

does competition among public schools benefit students and taxpayers tiebout choice among districts is the most powerful market force in american public education naive estimates of its effects are biased by endogenous district formation i derive instruments from the natural boundaries in a metropolitan area my results suggest that metropolitan areas with greater tiebout choice have more productive public schools and less private schooling little of the effect of tiebout choice works through its effect on household sorting this finding may be explained by another finding students are equally segregated by school in metropolitan areas with greater and lesser degrees of tiebout choice among districts

relative wage movements and the distribution of consumption we analyze how relative wage movements among birth cohorts and education groups affected the distribution of household consumption and economic welfare our empirical work draws on the best available cross sectional data sets to construct synthetic panel data on u s consumption labor supply and wages during the 1980s we find that low frequency movements in the cohort education structure of pretax hourly wages among men drove large changes in the distribution of household consumption the results constitute a spectacular failure of between group consumption insurance a failure not explained by existing theories of informationally constrained optimal consumption behavior a welfare analysis indicates that the cost of between group consumption variability is larger than the cost of aggregate consumption variability by two orders of magnitude

the value of registry data for consumption analysis an application to health shocks abstract this paper measures consumption expenditures using registry data on income and asset holdings in sweden we show how a registry based measure complements traditional survey measures of consumption and can alleviate some critical limitations we describe the construction of our measure which builds on prior work and exploits the identity coming from the household budget constraint between consumption expenditures and income net of savings we demonstrate the value of the registry based measure to study consumption responses to shocks also relative to surveyed consumption in our application to health shocks we find that swedish household experience permanent earning drops but generous social transfers provide substantial consumption smoothing we document important heterogeneity in consumption responses and the limited role for private means

the economics of schooling production and efficiency in public schools n recent years public and professional interest in schools has been heightened by a spate of reports many of them critical of current school policy these policy documents have added to persistent and long standing concerns about the cost effectiveness and fairness of the current school structure and have made schooling once again a serious public issue as in the past however any renewed interest in education is likely to be short lived doomed to dissipate as frustration over the inability of policy to improve school practice sets in this frustration about school policy relates directly to knowledge about the educational production process and in turn to underlying research on schools although the educational process has been extensively researched clear policy prescriptions flowing from this research have been difficult to derive 2 there exists however a consistency to the research findings that does have an immediate application to school policy schools differ dramatically in quality

rising inequality changes in the distribution of income and consumption in the 1980s this paper examines changes in the distribution of income and consumption in the united states during the 1980s using data from the current population survey income and consumer expenditure survey consumption we reach three primary conclusions first changes in the distribution of consumption parallel changes in the distribution of income the lowest quintile of the consumption distribution received 0 9 percentage points less of total consumption in 1988 than in 1980 the corresponding decline for income was 0 6 percentage points second broad conclusions concerning recent changes in the consumption distribution are not very sensitive to the exact choice of a measure of family needs under a wide variety of alternative household equivalence scales there is a widening in the consumption distribution in the 1980s third the usc of consumption measures of well being in place of measures based on current money income docs change conclusions concerning the extent of poverty in the united stales using the official federal poverty thresholds we find that the overall consumption poverty rate was three percentage points below the income poverty rate in 1988 comparisons of the poverty rates of the elderly and the non elderly are substantially affected by the choice of poverty measure the consumption poverty rare for the elderly was only 60 percent of the rate for adults and one third of the rate for children in 1988 this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

banks funding stress lending supply and consumption expenditure we employ a unique identification strategy linking survey data on household consumption expenditure to bank level data to estimate the effects of bank funding stress on consumer credit and consumption expenditures we show that households whose banks were more exposed to funding shocks report lower levels of nonmortgage liabilities this however only translates into lower levels of consumption for low income households hence adverse credit supply shocks are associated with significant heterogeneous effects

bureaucracy and student performance in us public schools this paper tests the hypothesis that monopoly power of school districts allows bureaucratic expansion and fosters poor academic performance in the public school system in california evidence indicates that monopoly power is positively associated with employment of administrators and teachers and therefore supports the bureaucratic expansion hypothesis while numbers of teachers do not influence performance measures numbers of administrators are shown to positively affect performance results that suggest that too many teachers but too few administrators are employed while bureaucracy theory may explain the resource misallocation other reasons might include rising public pressures on hiring teachers over administrators spending equalization policies and the weak california economy in the period under investigation

public education supply and student performance this paper develops a model of public exchange whereby voters and education policy makers exchange with one another within school districts because school district consolidation lowers alternatives to voters parents consolidation is hypothesized to raise public education spending because weakened intergovernmental competition allows policy makers to promote their own utility rather than that of constituents models of public education spending and academic performance are estimated over 1988 1990 while evidence indicates little support for the traditional treatment of the leviathan hypothesis that greater competition lowers public spending this paper argues that education spending by itself does not fully provide a valid test of the leviathan hypothesis since spending by itself does not necessarily indicate the quality of public education programmes empirical evidence indicates that greater numbers of schools and school districts promote higher student achievement as evidenced by higher math and v

factors influencing education achievement this study sets out to examine the factors that influence human capital formation in predominately rural communities the results indicated that parents educational attainment greatly influences the quality of education for their children thus consolidating smaller poor schools in which the parents have limited education above primary and secondary schools will not likely lead to much if any improvement in students test scores

consumption network effects in this paper we study the relevance and mechanics of consumption network effects we use long panel data on the entire danish population to construct a measure of consumption based on administrative tax records and define the peer groups in terms of workplace occupation education and age we then apply an iv strategy and fixed effect models to recover the effects our instruments arise naturally from the network structure and firms shocks the estimated effects are statistically significant and relevant for policies as they generate non negligible multiplier effects further the results are consistent with a keeping up model

intergenerational mobility new evidence from consumption data the intergenerational persistence of consumption describes the extent to which children inherit the living standards of their parents evidence on this parameter is scarce due to limited data on the joint consumption of parents and children this paper identifies parents who participated in the danish expenditure survey links them to their children through population wide danish registries and estimates the intergenerational elasticity of consumption in denmark the results suggest that consistent with intergenerational consumption smoothing the persistence of consumption across generations is higher than the persistence of earnings and income

a superior measure of consumption from the panel study of income dynamics abstract this paper provides a simple technique for assigning a measure of total consumption to households in the panel study of income dynamics psid using regressions from the consumer expenditure surveys of 1972 1973 and 1983 linear predictions of total consumption are estimated which are stable over time and explain up to 78 percent of the total variance in consumption

what can we learn about household consumption expenditure from data on income and assets abstract a major difficulty faced by researchers who want to study the consumption and savings behavior of households is the lack of reliable panel data on household expenditures one possibility is to use surveys that follow the same households over time but such data are rare and they typically have small sample sizes and face significant measurement issues an alternative approach is to use the accounting identity that total household spending is equal to income plus capital gains minus the change in wealth over the period the goal of this paper is to examine the advantages and difficulties of using this accounting identity to construct a population panel data with information on household expenditure to derive such measures of consumption expenditure we combine several data sources from norway over the period 1994 2014 this allows us to link tax records on income and wealth to other administrative data with information on financial and real estate transactions using this data we derive household expenditure from the accounting identity before assessing the sensitivity of this measure of consumption expenditure to the assumptions made and the data used we then compare our measures of household expenditure to those reported in expenditure surveys and to the aggregates from national accounts we also illustrate the research opportunities arising from the derived measures of consumption expenditure through two applications the first is an examination of how relative wage movements among birth cohorts and education groups affected the distribution of household expenditure while the second is a study of the transmission of income shocks to household consumption

household debt and spending during the financial crisis evidence from danish micro data abstract we use data for nearly 500 000 danish households to study the relationship between household leverage prior to the financial crisis of 2007 2009 and the development in spending over the course of the crisis we find a strong negative correlation between pre crisis leverage and the change in spending during the crisis this reflects that highly levered households spent a larger share of their income than their less levered peers prior to the crisis resulting in larger increases in debt in these years once we condition on the size of the pre crisis change in debt a high level of debt is no longer associated with a larger spending decline our results suggest that the larger decline in spending among high leverage households is the result of a spending normalization pattern that is also found in other years rather than a causal effect of high debt levels suppressing household spending during the crisis

the consumption effects of the 2007n2008 financial crisis evidence from households in denmark did the financial crisis in 2007 2008 spread from distressed banks to households through a contraction of the credit supply we study this question with a dataset that contains observations on all accounts in danish banks as well as comprehensive information about individual account holders and banks we document that banks exposed to the financial crisis reduced their lending relative to nonexposed banks which in turn caused a significant decrease in the borrowing and spending of their customers the effects were persistent borrowing remained lower through the postcrisis years and spending foregone during the crisis was not recovered

household labor supply and the gains from social insurance the marginal gains from social income insurance programs are captured by the gap in the marginal utility of consumption across states of nature to identify this gap in the context of the household this paper offers a new labor supply based approach that leverages household level economic interactions and optimality conditions we demonstrate that in frameworks of efficient household allocations spousal labor supply responses to shocks have direct implications for the gains from more generous government benefits to households we show that this holds for both intensive and extensive margin responses under fairly general conditions our analysis illustrates how labor market data can be used for assessing marginal welfare gains in a general class of social insurance schemes including the large and important programs of disability insurance and survivors benefits hence household labor supply behavior and responses to shocks which are widely studied in theoretical and empirical work hold valuable information for the optimal design of social insurance

consumption inequality and income uncertainty this paper places the debate over using consumption or income in studies of inequality growth in a formal intertemporal setting it highlights the importance of permanent and transitory income uncertainty in the evaluation of growth in consumption inequality we derive conditions under which the growth of variances and covariances of income and consumption can be used to separately identify the growth in the variance of permanent and transitory income shocks household data from britain for the period 1968 1992 are used to show a strong growth in transitory inequality toward the end of this period while younger cohorts are shown to face significantly higher levels of permanent inequality

insurance and opportunities the welfare implications of rising wage dispersion this paper develops a series of heterogeneous agents economies in order to characterize analytically the welfare implications of changes in the uncertainty in individual labor productivity we perform two types of welfare calculations first we compute the welfare consequences of a rise in labor market risk given a particular asset market structure complete markets incomplete markets autarky second we compute the expected gain from completing markets starting from autarky or incomplete markets for a given level of wage dispersion we are able to derive intuitive closed form expressions for these welfare eects which depend only on preference parameters and the size of the change in wage dispersion a higher level of productivity dispersion has always two eects it tends to reduce welfare in presence of partial insurance but it also tends to improve production opportunities in presence of flexible labor supply we can separate analytically the insurance and the opportunity components we quantify the welfare consequences of the rise in wage inequality observed in the united states over the past three decades as roughly 3 of lifetime consumption moreover we calculate that completing the asset markets given the current level of inequality would lead to a welfare improvement equivalent to 35 of lifetime consumption

consumer s surplus and welfare change in a simple dynamic model la somme escomptee d equivalents instantanes ou les variations compensees n est jamais un indicateur du bien etre economique exact pour un consommateur dont les preferences sont representees par une fonction utilite inter temporelle croissant

input output linkages and sectoral volatility why are some sectors more volatile than others this paper uncovers evidence of an empirical regularity in the us economy upstream sectors that are far removed from final consumers have higher levels of output volatility the relationship between volatility and upstreamness is not driven by sector size sector concentration trade openness or the level of aggregation at which sectors are defined rather the paper shows a stronger link between upstreamness and nominal output volatility than with indexes of real output volatility aggregate exports at the national level also reflect the empirical regularity of higher volatility with upstreamness export volatility is higher in economies with trade portfolios dominated by upstream sectors on average reducing the upstreamness of exports by 1 also reduces aggregate export volatility by about 10 the pattern of higher volatility for upstream sectors is explained with a model of demand shock transmission between sectors

intra school competition and student achievement within the economics of education literature numerous studies have investigated the relationship between educational market competition and educational achievement educational market competition has been defined as either the availability of vouchers within a community or the number of schools or school districts within the relevant market structure while these studies have shown that increases in inter district competition result in increased student achievement no studies to our knowledge have yet investigated the effect of intra school competition on student achievement within this study a measure of intra school competition is developed and the findings indicate that increased intra school competition leads to increased student achievement

consumption puzzles and precautionary savings abstract when marginal utility is convex agents accumulate savings as a precautionary measure against labor income eventualities this paper shows that precautionary savings can go a long way in making the excess growth excess smoothness and excess sensitivity features of consumption consistent with the stochastic processes of labor income observed in the u s at the microeconomic level

an international comparison of lifetime inequality how continental europe resembles north america we compare earnings inequality and mobility across the united states canada france germany and the united kingdom during the late 1990s a flexible model of earnings dynamics that isolates positional mobility within a stable earnings distribution is estimated earnings trajectories are then simulated and lifetime annuity value distributions are constructed earnings mobility and employment risk are found to be positively correlated with base year inequality taken together they produce more equalization in countries with high cross section inequality such that the countries in our sample have more similar lifetime inequality levels than cross section measures suggest

housing wealth and consumption a micro panel study there is strong evidence that house prices and consumption are synchronised there is however disagreement over the causes of this link this study examines if there is a wealth effect of house prices on consumption using a household level panel data set with information about house ownership income wealth and demographics for a large sample of the danish population in the period 1987 96 we model the dependence of the growth rate of total household expenditure with unanticipated innovations to house prices controlling for factors related to competing explanations we find little evidence of a housing wealth effect

intertemporal consumption and credit constraints does total expenditure respond to an exogenous shock to credit there is continuing controversy over the importance of credit constraints this paper investigates whether total household expenditure and debt is affected by an exogenous increase in access to credit provided by a credit market reform that enabled danish house owners to use housing equity as collateral for consumption loans we find that the magnitude of the response is correlated with the amount of equity released by the reform and that the effect is strongest for younger households even for this group the response was moderate the aggregate effect of the reform was significant but small

catching up or crowding out the crowd out effects of catch up retirement contributions on non retirement saving abstract using tax data this paper exploits a discontinuous increase in retirement contribution limits based on exact date of birth this paper finds clear evidence that constrained individuals increase their retirement saving when so eligible but finds no evidence suggesting that non retirement saving falls in the baseline specifications one can rule out crowd out greater than approximately 0 38 to 0 57 at the 95 confidence level depending on the measure used this suggests that the additional contributions induced by catch up eligibility represent an increase in total private saving

gaining ground poverty in the postwar united states official measures of poverty in the united states are compiled by the bureau of the census by comparing a household s income level to a prespecified threshold from a theoretical perspective it is more appropriate to evaluate the level of poverty using a consumption based measure of household welfare in this paper i evaluate the level of poverty using expenditure data from the consumer expenditure survey i find that consumption based poverty rates are much lower than those based on income the trend in the poverty rate in the united states is sensitive to the price index and equivalence scales used to adjust the poverty thresholds

imputing consumption from income and wealth information we investigate the feasibility of deriving a measure of total expenditure at the household level from administrative micro data on income and wealth we use danish administrative data that provides measures of disposable income and the holding of different assets at the end of the year the ability to link the households in the 1994 6 danish expenditure survey to their administrative data for the years around the survey year offers a unique possibility for constructing a measure of total expenditure and of checking directly on the reliability of the imputation the results are promising

the effects of class size on student achievement new evidence from population variation abstract i identify the effects of class size on student achievement using longitudinal variation in the population associated with each grade in 649 elementary schools i use variation in class size driven by idiosyncratic variation in the population i also use discrete jumps in class size that occur when a small change in enrollment triggers a maximum or minimum class size rule the estimates indicate that class size does not have a statistically significant effect on student achievement i rule out even modest effects 2 to 4 percent of a standard deviation in scores for a 10 percent reduction in class size

the trade off between child quantity and quality an empirical investigation of trade offs between number of children and their scholastic performance confirms that family size directly affects children s achievement though parents show no favori

evaluating the magnitude and the stakes of peer effects analysing science and math achievement across oecd what follows is an exercise aimed at estimating peer effects impact on science and math test scores of secondary school students surveyed in 1995 by the international education agency across oecd countries it is also to discuss their importance for educational policy particularly regarding the highly sensitive issue of ability grouping using this unique international database this study assesses the magnitude of the peer effect relative to more traditional inputs referring to education policy stakes we control for the presence of increasing or decreasing return this study also checks for cross effects in order to determine whether peer effects matter more to low or high ses pupils and whether their final impact on achievement is affected by the underlying level of heterogeneity within the group using a methodology which a priori accounts for the clustering of the data within countries and schools classrooms i e fixed random effect or hierarchical model our analysis indicates that peer effects are strong determinants of both math and science achievement relative to individual ses and other school inputs the presence of increasing of decreasing returns is not obvious but we find systematic evidence that low ability pupils are more sensitive to peer group characteristics by contrast this study also find that for a given level of the peer effect higher heterogeneity comes at a certain cost in brief these results provide no systematic evidence regarding grouping policies

precautionary saving in the small and in the large the theory of precautionary saving is shown to be isomorphic to the arrow pratt theory of risk aversion making possible the application of a large body of knowledge about risk aversion to precautionary saving and more generally to the theory of optimal choice under risk in particular a measure of the strength of the precautionary saving motive analogous to the arrow pratt measure of risk aversion is used to establish a number of new propositions about precautionary saving and to give a new interpretation of the dreze modigliani substitution effect copyright 1990 by the econometric society

stock market returns and consumption this paper employs swedish data on households stock holdings to investigate how consumption responds to changes in stock market returns we instrument the actual capital gains and dividend payments with past portfolio weights unrealized capital gains lead to a marginal propensity to consume mpc of 23 percent for the bottom 50 of the wealth distribution and about 3 percent for the top 30 of the wealth distribution households consumption is significantly more responsive to dividend payouts across all parts of the wealth distribution our findings are consistent with households treating capital gains and dividends as separate sources of income