electricity consumption and economic growth in south africa a trivariate causality test abstract in this paper we examine the causal relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in south africa we incorporate the employment rate as an intermittent variable in the bivariate model between electricity consumption and economic growth thereby creating a simple trivariate causality framework our empirical results show that there is a distinct bidirectional causality between electricity consumption and economic growth in south africa in addition the results show that employment in south africa granger causes economic growth the results apply irrespective of whether the causality is estimated in the short run or in the long run formulation the study therefore recommends that policies geared towards the expansion of the electricity infrastructure should be intensified in south africa in order to cope with the increasing demand exerted by the country s strong economic growth and rapid industrialisation programme this will certainly enable the country to avoid unprecedented power outages similar to those experienced in the country in mid january 2008

energy consumption and economic growth nexus in tanzania an ardl bounds testing approach abstract in this paper we examine the intertemporal causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in tanzania during the period of 1971 2006 unlike the majority of the previous studies we employ the newly developed autoregressive distributed lag ardl bounds testing approach by pesaran et al 2001 bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships journal of applied econometrics 16 289 326 to examine this linkage we also use two proxies of energy consumption namely total energy consumption per capita and electricity consumption per capita the results of the bounds test show that there is a stable long run relationship between each of the proxies of energy consumption and economic growth the results of the causality test on the other hand show that there is a unidirectional causal flow from total energy consumption to economic growth and a prima facie causal flow from electricity consumption to economic growth overall the study finds that energy consumption spurs economic growth in tanzania

disaggregate energy consumption employment and income in turkey the purpose of this paper is to contribute to literature on energy consumption and economic growth relationship by examining how much of the variance in national income growth can be explained by the growth of different sources of energy consumption and employment in turkey we use the recently developed generalized forecast error variance decomposition technique of koop et al j econom 74 1996 119 and pesaran and shin econ lett 58 1998 17 to determine the information content of the growth rate of energy consumption waste seems to have the largest initial impact followed by oil however over a 3 year horizon lignite appears to explain the largest forecast error variance of gdp the total energy consumption explains 21 of forecast error variance of gdp energy consumption appears to be almost as important as employment in turkey therefore policy makers may be interested in identifying the energy dependencies of economic growth in allocating the energy investment budget

a re examination of the relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in malaysia abstract the purpose of this study is to re investigate the relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in malaysia from 1972 1 to 2003 4 this study adopted the newly developed ecm based f test kanioura a turner p 2005 critical values for an f test for cointegration in the multivariate model applied economics 37 3 265 270 for cointegration to examine the presence of long run equilibrium relationship through the autoregressive distributed lag ardl model the empirical evidence suggests that electricity consumption and economic growth are not cointegrated in malaysia however the standard granger s test and mwald test suggest that electricity consumption and economic growth in malaysia granger causes each other this finding provides policymakers with a better understanding of electricity consumption and allows them to formulate electricity consumption policy to support the economic development and to enhance the productivity of capital labour and other factors of production for future economic growth in malaysia

renewable energy an efficient mechanism to improve gdp abstract this article analyzes the effects of renewable energy on gdp for 116 economies in 2003 through structural equation modeling sem approach in order to decipher the mechanism of how the use of renewables improves macroeconomic efficiency we decompose gdp by the expenditure approach although previous theory predicts positive effects of renewables on capital formation and trade balance the sem results show that renewables have a significant positive influence on capital formation only the result that renewables do not have a significant impact on trade balance implies that renewables do not have an import substitution effect thus we confirm the positive relationship between renewable energy and gdp through the path of increasing capital formation but not for the path of increasing trade balance

causality relationship between electricity consumption and gdp in bangladesh in this paper we examine the causal relationship between the per capita electricity consumption and the per capita gdp for bangladesh using cointegration and vector error correction model our results show that there is unidirectional causality from per capita gdp to per capita electricity consumption however the per capita electricity consumption does not cause per capita gdp in case of bangladesh the finding has significant implications from the point of view of energy conservation emission reduction and economic development

modeling the causal linkages between nuclear energy renewable energy and economic growth in developed and developing countries abstract this article investigates the causal relationship between two types of energy variables and economic growth using dynamic simultaneous equation panel data models for 17 developed and developing countries our results indicate that there is a unidirectional causality running from nuclear consumption to economic growth in belgium and spain while a unidirectional causality running from economic growth to nuclear consumption is supported in bulgaria canada netherlands and sweden a bidirectional relationship appears in argentina brazil france pakistan and the usa while no causality exists in finland hungary india japan switzerland and the u k second the results for the second nexus among renewable energy and economic growth show that there is a unidirectional causality running from renewable consumption to economic growth in hungary india japan netherlands and sweden while there exist a unidirectional running from economic growth to renewable consumption in argentina spain and switzerland a bidirectional relationship is supported in belgium bulgaria canada france pakistan and the usa while no causality exists in brazil finland and switzerland third we find the existence of a bidirectional causality between nuclear consumption and economic and a unidirectional causality running from economic growth to renewable energy consumption for the global panel

renewable energy consumption and income in emerging economies abstract increased economic growth and demand for energy in emerging economies is creating an opportunity for these countries to increase their usage of renewable energy this paper presents and estimates two empirical models of renewable energy consumption and income for a panel of emerging economies panel cointegration estimates show that increases in real per capita income have a positive and statistically significant impact on per capita renewable energy consumption in the long term a 1 increase in real income per capita increases the consumption of renewable energy per capita in emerging economies by approximately 3 5 long term renewable energy per capita consumption price elasticity estimates are approximately equal to 0 70

threshold effect of the economic growth rate on the renewable energy development from a change in energy price evidence from oecd countries this paper uses a panel threshold regression ptr model to investigate the influence that energy prices have on renewable energy development under different economic growth rate regimes the empirical data are obtained from each of the oecd member countries over the period from 1997 to 2006 we show that there is one threshold in the regression relationship which is 4 13 of a one period lag in the annual gross domestic product gdp growth rate the consumer price index cpi in so far as it relates to variations in energy is significantly positively correlated with the contribution of renewables to energy supply in the regime with higher economic growth but there is no relationship in the regime with lower economic growth therefore countries characterized by high economic growth are able to respond to high energy prices with increases in renewable energy use while countries characterized by low economic growth countries tend to be unresponsive to energy price changes when they come to their level of renewable energy

electricity consumption and economic growth in china abstract this paper applies the error correction model to examine the causal relationship between electricity consumption and real gdp for china during 1971 2000 our estimation results indicate that real gdp and electricity consumption for china are cointegrated and there is unidirectional granger causality running from electricity consumption to real gdp but not vice versa in order to overcome the constraints on electricity consumption the chinese government has to speed up the nation wide interconnection of power networks to upgrade urban and rural distribution grids and to accelerate rural electrification

electricity consumption and economic growth in china cointegration and co feature analysis abstract this paper applies the cointegration theory to examine the causal relationship between electricity consumption and real gdp gross demostic product for china during 1978 2004 our estimation results indicate that real gdp and electricity consumption for china are cointegrated and there is only unidirectional granger causality running from electricity consumption to real gdp but not the vice versa then hodrick prescott hp filter is applied to decompose the trend and fluctuation component of the gdp and electricity consumption series the estimation results indicate that there is cointegration between not only the trend components but also the cyclical components of the two series which implies that the granger causality is probably related with the business cycle the estimation results are of policy implication to the development of electric sector in china

a note on the causal relationship between energy and gdp in taiwan abstract this paper re examines the causality between energy consumption and gdp by using updated taiwan data for the period 1954 1997 as a secondary contribution we investigate the causal relationship between gdp and the aggregate as well as several disaggregate categories of energy consumption including coal oil natural gas and electricity applying granger s technique we find bidirectional causality between total energy consumption and gdp we find further that different directions of cause exist between gdp and various kinds of energy consumption

the effect of electricity consumption from renewable sources on countries economic growth levels evidence from advanced emerging and developing economies abstract this paper uses a sample of 36 countries for the time period 1990 2011 in order to examine the relationship between countries electricity consumption from renewable sources and gross domestic product gdp levels several nonparametric techniques are applied to investigate the effect of electricity consumption from several renewable sources including wind geothermal solar biomass and waste on countries gdp levels when investigating the whole sample ignoring countries economic development status the results reveal an increasing relationship up to a certain gdp level which after that point the effect of electricity consumption on gdp stabilises however when analyzing separately the emerging markets and developing economies and the advanced developed economies the results change significantly for the case of emerging market and developing economies the relationship appears to be highly nonlinear an m shape form indicating that on those countries the levels of electricity consumption from renewable sources will not result on higher gdp levels in contrast for the case of the advanced economies the results reveal an increasing nonlinear relationship indicating that higher electricity consumption levels from renewable sources results to higher gdp levels this finding is mainly attributed to the fact that in the advanced developed economies more terawatts from renewable sources are generated and consumed compared to the emerging market and developing economies which traditionally their economies rely on non renewable sources for power generation and consumption

on the causal dynamics between economic growth renewable energy consumption co2 emissions and trade openness fresh evidence from brics countries abstract the current study investigates the causal relationship between economic growth and renewable energy consumption in the brics countries over the period 1971 2010 within a multivariate framework the ardl bounds testing approach to cointegration and vector error correction model vecm are used to examine the long run and causal relationships between economic growth renewable energy consumption trade openness and carbon dioxide emissions empirical evidence shows that based on the ardl estimates there exist long run equilibrium relationships among the competing variables regarding the vecm results bi directional granger causality exists between economic growth and renewable energy consumption suggesting the feedback hypothesis which can explain the role of renewable energy in stimulating economic growth in brics countries

disaggregated industrial energy consumption and gdp the case of shanghai 1952 1999 abstract this paper investigates the causal relationship between various kinds of industrial energy consumption and gdp in shanghai for the period 1952 1999 using a modified version of the granger 1969 causality test proposed by toda and yamamoto j econ 66 1995 225 the empirical evidence from disaggregated energy series seems to suggest that there was a uni directional granger causality running from coal coke electricity and total energy consumption to real gdp but no granger causality running in any direction between oil consumption and real gdp

analyzing volatility spillovers and hedging between oil and stock markets evidence from wavelet analysis abstract this paper examines the linkage of crude oil market wti and stock markets of the g 7 countries we study the mean and volatility spillovers of oil and stock market prices over various time horizons we propose a new approach incorporating both multivariate garch models and wavelet analysis wavelet based mgarch approach we combine a bivariate garch bekk model with wavelet multiresolution analysis in order to capture the multiscale features of mean and volatility spillovers between time series for optimal portfolio allocation decisions we analyze the multiscale behavior of hedge ratio empirical results show strong evidence of significant volatility spillovers between oil and stock markets as well as time varying correlations for various market pairs however results of wavelet coherence indicate that in most the wti market was leading in addition it is stated that the decomposed volatility spillovers permit investors to adapt their hedging strategies

use renewables to be cleaner meta analysis of the renewable energy consumption economic growth nexus abstract the renewable energy consumption economic growth nexus is a growing area of research over the last few years emanating to mixed results the aim of the current study is to quantitatively synthesise the empirical literature on the subject using the meta analysis approach in particular a meta multinomial regression is employed to investigate the sources of variation in the direction of causality between renewable energy consumption and economic growth this causal relationship takes the form of four hypotheses namely the feedback conservation growth and neutrality hypotheses to the best of author s knowledge this study constitutes the first meta analysis undertaken on the renewable energy consumption economic growth nexus the empirical results reveal that the variation in the supported hypotheses is due to a number of characteristics including model specification data characteristics estimation techniques cointegration methods and causality tests and development level of the country on which a study was conducted

exploiting the oil gdp effect to support renewables deployment the empirical evidence from a growing body of academic literature clearly suggests that oil price increases and volatility dampen macroeconomic growth by raising inflation and unemployment and by depressing the value of financial and other assets surprisingly this issue seems to have received little attention from energy policy makers in percentage terms the oil gdp effect is relatively small producing losses in the order of 0 5 of gdp for a 10 oil price increase in absolute terms however even a 10 oil price rise oil has risen at least 50 in the last year alone produces gdp losses that could they have been averted would significantly offset the cost of increased re deployment this paper draws on the empirical oil gdp literature which we summarize to show that i by displacing gas and oil renewable energy investments can help nations avoid costly macroeconomic losses produced by the oil gdp effect and ii that these avoided losses represent a significant external macroeconomic benefit of such investments we show that a 10 increase in re share avoids gdp losses in the range of 29 53 billion in the us and the eu 49 90 billion for oecd these avoided losses offset one fifth of the re investment needs projected by the erec and half the oecd investment projected by a g 8 task force for the us the figures further suggest that each additional kw of renewables on average avoids 250 450 in gdp losses a figure that varies across technologies as a function of annual capacity factors we approximate that the offset is worth 200 kw for wind and solar and 800 kw for geothermal and biomass while we focus only on renewables the gdp offset will apply in some measure to other non fossil technologies including energy efficiency dsm and nuclear the societal valuation of non fossil alternatives must reflect these avoided gdp losses whose benefit is not fully captured by private investors this said we fully recognize that wealth created in this manner does not directly form a pool of public funds that is easily earmarked for renewables support finally the oil gdp relationship has important implications for correctly estimating direct electricity generating cost for conventional and renewable alternatives and for developing more useful energy security and diversity concepts we also address these issues

cointegration and causality between electricity consumption and gdp empirical evidence from malawi abstract the granger causality gc and error correction ecm techniques were applied on 1970 1999 data for malawi to examine cointegration and causality between electricity consumption kwh and respectively overall gdp agricultural gdp agdp and non agricultural gdp ngdp cointegration was established between kwh and respectively gdp and ngdp but not with agdp the gc results detect bi directional causality between kwh and gdp suggesting that kwh and gdp are jointly determined but one way causality running from ngdp to kwh the ecm results detect causality running one way from gdp also from ngdp to kwh suggesting that a permanent rise in gdp may cause a permanent growth in electricity consumption

electricity consumption and economic growth evidence from korea abstract this paper investigates the short and long run causality issues between electricity consumption and economic growth in korea by using the co integration and error correction models it employs annual data covering the period 1970 2002 the overall results show that there exists bi directional causality between electricity consumption and economic growth this means that an increase in electricity consumption directly affects economic growth and that economic growth also stimulates further electricity consumption

renewable energy consumption co2 emissions and oil prices in the g7 countries abstract economic and societal issues related to energy security and global warming is placing greater emphasis on the consumption of renewable energy this paper presents and estimates an empirical model of renewable energy consumption for the g7 countries panel cointegration estimates show that in the long term increases in real gdp per capita and co2 per capita are found to be major drivers behind per capita renewable energy consumption these results are robust across two different panel cointegration estimators oil price increases have a smaller although negative impact on renewable energy consumption deviations from equilibrium are driven mostly by the error correction term as opposed to short term shocks short term deviations from the long term equilibrium take anywhere from between 1 3 years france and 7 3 years japan to correct

electricity consumption and economic growth evidence from turkey abstract this study investigates the causal relationship between electricity consumption and real gdp in turkey during the period of 1950 2000 both of the series were found to be a stationary process around a structural break by the zivot and andrews test thus two different methodologies have been employed to test the granger non causality the dolado lutkepohl test using the vars in levels and the standard granger causality test using the detrended data both tests have yielded a strong evidence for unidirectional causality running from the electricity consumption to the income this implies that the supply of electricity is vitally important to meet the growing electricity consumption hence to sustain the economic growth in turkey

a dynamic equilibrium of electricity consumption and gdp in hong kong an empirical investigation abstract public debates on electricity policy in hong kong focus on the regulation regime but seldom discuss the macroeconomic impact in this paper we use the novel dataset on electricity consumption and report the following findings 1 there is a long run equilibrium relationship between real gdp and electricity consumption 2 a one way causal effect exists from electricity consumption to real gdp 3 a significant adjustment process occurs when equilibrium is interrupted 4 there exists possible structural change in the relationship between electricity consumption and economic activities in 1990s

hydroelectricity consumption and economic growth nexus evidence from a panel of ten largest hydroelectricity consumers abstract this paper explores the long run and causal relationships between hydroelectricity consumption and economic growth for a panel of the 10 largest hydroelectricity consuming countries over the period 1965 2012 the countries include brazil canada china france india japan norway sweden turkey and the u s a using the bai and perron 2003 9 tests for cointegration the results indicate that real gdp per capita and hydroelectricity consumption per capita appear to be cointegrated around a broken intercept granger causality results from a nonlinear panel smooth transition vector error correction model suggest different results depending on the regimes which we identified based on structural break tests the test identified three breaks at 1988 2000 and 2009 for the pre 1988 period there is evidence of unidirectional causality running from real gdp per capita to hydroelectricity per capita in both the short and long run over the post 1988 period there exists evidence of bidirectional causality between hydroelectricity energy consumption per capita and real gdp per capita in both the short and the long run the results imply the existence of a feedback hypothesis with both hydroelectricity consumption and growth promoting each other in more recent periods as the importance of hydroelectricity as a renewable energy has become more prominent

inertia of forward looking expectations macroeconomic variables exhibit inertia on the face of it such inertia sits uncomfortably with the behavior of rational forward looking agents who form expectations on the basis of the best information available at the time christopher sims 2003 sect 8 offers a three fold taxonomy of attempts to rationalize inertia the first is the idea of robert lucas 1973 and edmund phelps 1970 that agents face a signal extraction problem so that their actions react only partially to shifts in fundamentals due to the residual uncertainty the second is the sticky expectations approach of n gregory mankiw and ricardo reis 2002 where otherwise rational and forward looking agents receive information with some delay the third is the rational inattention approach favored by sims himself where agents with informationprocessing constraints choose the optimal coarsening of their information sims 2003 our approach is a variation on the signalextraction theme but has implications for the sticky expectations and rational inattention approaches as explained recently by michael woodford 2003 the original contribution of lucas 1973 had limited success in explaining the persistence of macroeconomic aggregates due to the feature that the underlying fundamentals are fully revealed after a delay of one period without this simplifying feature however the complexity of the problem increases rapidly as expectations of others expectations become relevant in one s calculations robert townsend 1983 phelps 1983 tractability aside the approach holds much promise when agents are differentially informed events in the distant past are more common knowledge than events in the recent past not only has enough time elapsed for the agents to ascertain the facts in the distant past but more importantly enough time has elapsed for each agent to be more confident that other agents have ascertained the facts when common knowledge is important as in coordination problems for example events in the distant past take on significance paradoxically the farther the agents peer into the future the farther they must look into the past to establish the informational platform for their actions to an outside observer the aggregate action betrays all the outward signs of adaptive expectations in order to demonstrate this principle in a transparent way we employ other drastic simplifications but do not assume that realizations are revealed after a delay of one period we thereby preserve the nontrivial nature of dynamic higher order beliefs and show how persistence arises as a natural consequence of the original lucas and phelps insight

macroeconomic expectations of households and professional forecasters economists have long emphasized the importance of expectations in determining macroeconomic outcomes yet there has been almost no recent effort to model actual empirical expectations data instead m acroeconomists usually simply assume that expectations are rational this paper shows that while empirical household expectations are not rational in the usual sense expectational dynamics are well captured by a model in which households views derive from news reports of the views of professional forecasters which in turn may be rational the model s estimates imply that people only occasionally pay attention to news reports this inattention generates stickyness in aggregate expectations with important macroeconomic consequences

renewable energy consumption and economic growth evidence from a panel of oecd countries abstract this study examines the relationship between renewable energy consumption and economic growth for a panel of twenty oecd countries over the period 1985 2005 within a multivariate framework given the relatively short span of the time series data a panel cointegration and error correction model is employed to infer the causal relationship the heterogeneous panel cointegration test reveals a long run equilibrium relationship between real gdp renewable energy consumption real gross fixed capital formation and the labor force with the respective coefficients positive and statistically significant the granger causality results indicate bidirectional causality between renewable energy consumption and economic growth in both the short and long run

the hydroelectricity consumption and economic growth in asian countries evidence using an asymmetric cointegration approach this study examines the four commonly tested hypotheses in hydroelectricity consumption economic growth literature for 12 asian countries our results from a recently developed hidden cointegrati

electricity consumption growth nexus the case of malaysia abstract the goal of this paper is to model the relationship between electricity consumption and real gross domestic product gdp for malaysia in a bivariate and multivariate framework we use time series data for the period 1971 2003 and apply the bounds testing approach to search for a long run relationship our results reveal that electricity consumption real gdp and price share a long run relationship the results of the autoregressive distributed lag ardl estimates of long run elasticity of electricity consumption on gdp are found to be around 0 7 and statistically significant finally in the short run the results of the causality test show that there is a unidirectional causal flow from electricity consumption to economic growth in malaysia from these findings we conclude that malaysia is an energy dependent country leading us to draw some policy implications this paper adds support and validity thus reducing the policy makers concern on the ambiguity of the electricity and growth nexus in malaysia

electricity consumption and economic growth in india abstract this paper tries to examine the granger causality between electricity consumption per capita and gross domestic product gdp per capita for india using annual data covering the period 1950 51 to 1996 97 phillips perron tests reveal that both the series after logarithmic transformation are non stationary and individually integrated of order one this study finds the absence of long run equilibrium relationship among the variables but there exists unidirectional granger causality running from economic growth to electricity consumption without any feedback effect so electricity conservation policies can be initiated without deteriorating economic side effects

structural breaks energy consumption and economic growth revisited evidence from taiwan abstract this paper studies the stability between energy consumption and gdp for taiwan during 1954 2003 we use aggregate as well as various disaggregate data of energy consumption including coal oil gas and electricity to employ the unit root tests and the cointegration tests allowing for structural breaks our main findings are first though gas consumption seems to have structural breaks in the 1960s after considering the structural breaks the series is a stationary variable when taiwan adopted its expansionary export trade policy second we find that different directions of causality exist between gdp and various kinds of energy consumption the empirical result shows unanimously in the long run that energy acts as an engine of economic growth and that energy conservation may harm economic growth third the cointegration between energy consumption and gdp is unstable and some economic events may affect the stability overall we do find the structural breakpoints and they look to match clearly with the corresponding critical economic incidents

the relationship between electricity consumption electricity prices and gdp in pakistan abstract this study analyzes the relationship among electricity consumption its price and real gdp at the aggregate and sectoral level in pakistan using annual data for the period 1960 2008 the study finds the presence of unidirectional causality from real economic activity to electricity consumption in particular growth in output in commercial manufacturing and agricultural sectors tend to increase electricity consumption while in residential sector growth in private expenditures is the cause of rising electricity consumption the study concludes that electricity production and management needs to be better integrated with overall economic planning exercises this is essential to avoid electricity shortfalls and unplanned load shedding

the relationship between disaggregate energy consumption and industrial production in the united states an ardl approach abstract we re examine the relationship between disaggregate energy consumption and industrial output as well as employment in the united states using the autoregressive distributed lag ardl approach developed by pesaran and pesaran pesaran m h pesaran b 1997 working with microfit 4 0 camfit data ltd cambridge and pesaran shin and smith pesaran m h shin y smith r j 2001 bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships journal of applied econometrics 16 289 326 in particular we focus attention on the following energy consumption variables coal fossil fuels conventional hydroelectric power solar energy wind energy natural gas wood and waste the sample period covers 2001 1 2005 6 our results imply that real output and employment are long run forcing variables for nearly all measures of disaggregate energy consumption

implications of rational inattention abstract a constraint that actions can depend on observations only through a communication channel with finite shannon capacity is shown to be able to play a role very similar to that of a signal extraction problem or an adjustment cost in standard control problems the resulting theory looks enough like familiar dynamic rational expectations theories to suggest that it might be useful and practical while the implications for policy are different enough to be interesting

the causal relationship between renewable electricity generation and gdp growth a study of energy sources abstract this paper examines the causal relationship between economic growth and electricity generation from renewable sources biomass geothermal hydroelectric solar waste and wind across 20 oecd countries over 1990 to 2008 the results from a commonly used panel error correction model find a a bidirectional relationship between aggregate renewable generation and real gdp b biomass hydroelectricity waste and wind energy exhibit a positive long run relationship with gdp c hydroelectricity and waste generation exhibit a short run positive bidirectional relationship with gdp growth and d biomass hydroelectric and waste electricity generation have the largest impact on real gdp in the long run we extend the analysis to consider the possibility of structural breaks and cross sectional dependence accounting for cross sectional dependence we find that in the short run increases in biomass and waste generation negatively affect gdp while aggregate renewable and hydroelectricity increase gdp energy conservation policies will positively impact gdp if the policies cause decreases in biomass or waste energy but increase hydroelectricity and wind energy