the inflation tax in a real business cycle model money is incorporated into a real business cycle model using a cash in advance constraint the model economy is used to analyze whether the business cycle is different in high inflation and low inflation economies and to analyze the impact of variability in the growth rate of money in addition the welfare cost of the inflation tax is measured and the steady state properties of high and low inflation economies are compared

national agricultural commodity research priorities for pakistan a future agricultural research agenda for pakistan and its provinces was developed as part of the national master agricultural research plan nmarp under the government of pakistan world bank agricultural research project ii arp ii the current research agenda mainly keeps pace with maintenance research and little contribution is being made to increase the productivity above maintenance levels for most crop and livestock commodities thus the present pakistan agricultural research system cannot contribute in any substantial or efficient way to the narrowing of pakistan s projected food deficit anticipated in the next 15 years a major thrust of the arp ii project was identifying a new research agenda with agricultural research priority setting as the basis an ex ante economic surplus priority setting analysis at the national level was undertaken for selected agricultural commodities as part of the priority setting process three separate research funding scenarios were analyzed 1 scenario i an ex ante analysis using the present research commodity funding levels and present research management level for each year over the next five years 2 scenario ii an ex ante analysis using double the present funding level for each year over the next 5 years with a higher research management level than at present and 3 scenario iii an ex ante analysis at an optimally funded level with a higher research management level an efficiency index npv divided by the present value of research expenditure was used for the priority ranking of commodities a framework for using the information generated by the ex ante economic surplus method is presented the results of the analysis proved to be useful as baseline information for researchers and research managers to assess the overall budget commitment required for agricultural research in pakistan and for identifying an overall research strategy at the national level

marriage bequest and assortative matching in rural ethiopia abstract this article examines the determinants of human and physical capital at marriage using detailed data from rural ethiopia we find that assets brought to marriage are distributed in a highly unequal manner for first unions assets brought to marriage are positively associated with parents wealth indicating that a bequest motive affects assets at marriage parental wealth affects the inheritance of neither groom nor bride sibling competition from brothers affects grooms inheritance but sisters have no effect the marriage market is a major conduit for rural and gender inequality although avenues do exist for couples to accumulate wealth over their life cycle

the gender asset gap land in latin america summary the gender asset gap in latin america with respect to ownership of land is significant in few countries do women constitute even one quarter of the landowners gender inequality in land ownership is related to male preference in inheritance male privilege in marriage male bias in community and state programs of land distribution as well as gender bias in the land market with women less likely than men to be successful buyers but there are also important di erences by gender in how land is acquired inheritance is the primary means by which most women become landowners men are much more likely than women to acquire land through its distribution by communities or the state and via the market factors contributing toward a trend toward greater gender equity in land inheritance and in recent state programs are highlighted 2003 elsevier science ltd all rights reserved

assessing the functioning of land rental markets in ethiopia although a large theoretical literature discusses the possible inefficiency of sharecropping contracts the empirical evidence on this phenomenon has been ambiguous at best household level fixed effect estimates from about 8 500 plots operated by households that own and sharecrop land in the ethiopian highlands provide support for the hypothesis of marshallian inefficiency at the same time a factor adjustment model suggests that the extent to which rental markets allow households to attain their desired operational holding size is extremely limited our analysis points towards factor market imperfections no rental for oxen lack of alternative employment opportunities and tenure insecurity as possible reasons underlying such behavior suggesting that rather than worrying almost exclusively about marshallian inefficiency it is equally warranted to give due attention to the policy framework within which land rental markets operate

gender and command over property a critical gap in economic analysis and policy in south asia abstract this paper focuses on a much neglected issue the links between gender inequities and command over property it outlines why in rural south asia where arable land is the most important form of property any significant improvement in women s economic and social situation is crucially tied to their having independent land rights better employment opportunities can complement but not substitute for land but despite progressive legislation few south asian women own land even fewer effectively control any why a complex range of factors social administrative and ideological are found to underlie the persistent gap between women s legal rights and their actual ownership of land and between ownership and control the necessity of collective action by women for overcoming these obstacles and the aspects needing a specific focus for policy and action are also discussed

agricultural research priority setting under multiple objectives an example from zimbabwe abstract strategic priorities are assessed for the agricultural research system in zimbabwe in a situation characterized by multiple objectives farm types and agro ecological zones economic surplus analysis is used to rank research programs by commodity and research program areas in total and disaggregated by large and small farms in high and low potential regions no funding current funding and 50 more funding are allowed for each program in the analysis an optimal research portfolio is developed first with all weight placed on efficiency and second with increasing weights placed on benefits going to small holder farmers even with no additional weight placed on small holders research programs for both small farms and low potential areas enter into the optimal research portfolio as more emphasis is given to small holders the reduction in overall efficiency gained due to research is relatively modest maize and cotton were the highest ranked commodity research programs of the 36 commodities considered for both large and small farms agronomy and soils research are relatively more important for small holders while plant breeding and crop protection are relatively more important for large scale farmers

input choices in agriculture is there a gender bias summary this paper examines evidence of gender biases in the decisions of agricultural households utilizing data from international crops research institute for the semi arid tropics s village level studies in india 1975 85 the main empirical finding is that households with a high proportion of boys tend to use some agricultural inputs including fertilizers and irrigation services more intensively than households with girls this pattern is more pronounced among wealthier households but does not appear to be driven solely by bequest motives or male child labor productivity

a note on the effects of capital income taxation on the dynamics of a competitive economy abstract in this paper we investigate the effect of changing capital income tax rates on the time paths of a competitive economy in an uncertain environment

tenure insecurity gender low cost land certification and land rental market participation in ethiopia abstract there is a renewed interest in whether land reforms can contribute to market development and poverty reduction in africa this paper assesses effects on the allocative efficiency of the land rental market of the low cost approach to land registration and certification of restricted property rights that was implemented in ethiopia in the late 1990s four rounds of a balanced household panel from 16 villages in northern ethiopia are analysed showing that land certification initially enhanced land rental market participation of potential tenant and landlord households especially those that are headed by females

ex post impacts of improved maize varieties on poverty in rural ethiopia public agricultural research has been conducted in africa for decades while many studies have examined its aggregate impacts few have investigated how it affects the poor this paper helps fill this gap by applying a new procedure to explore the ex post impacts of improved maize varieties on poverty in rural ethiopia plot level yield and cost changes due to adoption are first estimated using instrumental variable and marginal treatment effect techniques where possible heterogeneity is carefully accounted for a backward derivation procedure is then developed to link treatment effect estimates with an economic surplus model to identify the counterfactual household income that would have existed without improved maize varieties poverty impacts are finally estimated by exploiting the differences between observed and counterfactual income distributions improved maize varieties have led to a 0 8 1 3 percentage drop of poverty headcount ratio and relative reductions of poverty depth and severity however poor producers benefit the least from adoption due to the smallness of their land holdings

measuring the impacts of agricultural research on poverty reduction policymakers are increasingly calling upon agricultural research managers to consider poverty reduction objectives when making resource allocations the authors present a simple method to measure the impact of agricultural research on the poor this method has the advantage that it presents the results in a manner consistent with commonly used measures of poverty this consistency and focus should facilitate and enhance dialogue between policymakers and research managers when deciding on resource allocations and assessing impacts on poverty reduction an illustrative application is presented using data from malawi

food aid impacts in rural kenya assessing the potential role of food aid in economic development requires that analytical attention be given to both household production and consumption consequences of food aid projects effects of a food for work ffw project in rural kenya are assessed using a peasant household firm model which incorporates a linear programming model and an almost ideal demand system the results indicate that program participants have net returns 52 percent higher than nonparticipants most of which is due to induced effects of capital formation on own farm production greater capital formation increases the opportunity cost of participants time encouraging a transition over time from ffw activities to greater own farm production ffw increases food demand employment and marketable surplus

efficiency equity tradeoffs and the scope for resource reallocation in agricultural research evidence from nigeria on the basis of projected economic and poverty impacts of alternative commodity research programs this article assessed efficiency and equity tradeoffs and the scope for research resource reallocation in nigeria given the importance of major food staples to both poor and nonpoor households in production and consumption introducing a poverty dimension revealed no significant shift in priorities compared with those implied by efficiency the results showed that neither the additional benefits to the poor nor the foregone benefits to society are significant from prioritizing research according to equity relative to efficiency criteria as current priorities are supported by neither efficiency nor equity criteria however there is considerable scope for maximizing research benefits to the poor through informed reallocation of research resources the article concludes with a discussion of the patterns of resource reallocations implied by efficiency and equity criteria

agricultural supply response a survey abstract this paper surveys the literature on agricultural supply response to prices in developing countries empirical estimates of elasticities depend both on the methodology adopted and on country specific factors relating to technology economic structure and macro constraints the paper seeks to establish some general conclusions on supply responsiveness within these limitations supply response to output prices at the aggregate and at the crop levels is considered first crop specific acreage elasticities range between zero and 0 8 in the short run while long run elasticities tend to be higher between 0 3 and 1 2 yield elasticities are smaller and less stable than acreage elasticities clearly inter crop pricing can be relied upon to effect shifts in the commodity composition of agricultural output evidence also suggests that supply elasticities vary systematically with such factors as price and yield risks multiple cropping the importance of the crop farm incomes farm size tenancy and literacy the most controversial and important aspect of supply response is the effect on aggregate agricultural output of agriculture s terms of trade conventional time series estimates range from 0 1 to 0 3 a major cross country study reports an aggregate elasticity as high as 1 66 it is argued that cross country estimates are apt to exaggerate aggregate responsiveness while time series studies underestimate it somewhat for ldcs a tentative range of 0 4 to 0 5 seems plausible hence the distributive effects of the terms of trade are likely to be more significant than the allocative effects asian evidence shows that only a third of the inter country differences in fertilizer use can be attributed to fertilizer price policies provided new technologies and infrastructure are in place fertilizer subsidies can help in technology diffusion and in over coming credit constraints the choice between price supports and input subsidies will depend on a variety of country or situation specific factors nevertheless a significant general factor favoring price supports is that they can more easily be coupled with price stabilization goals than input subsidies though sparse the available evidence on the response of marketed surplus suggests that price policy is not a reliable instrument for regulating inter sectoral trade

peanut research and poverty reduction impacts of variety improvement to control peanut viruses in uganda a procedure is developed and applied for predicting ex ante impacts of agricultural research on aggregate poverty using as an example the poverty reducing impact of peanut research in uganda market level information on economic surplus changes is combined with a procedure for allocating income changes to individual households characteristics of farmers that affect their likelihood of technology adoption are used to create a technology adoption profile associated changes in poverty resulting from adoption are computed using poverty indices predicted income changes at the household level are aggregated to the market level and reconciled with calculations of economic surplus changes

indivisible labor and the business cycle abstract a growth model with shocks to technology is studied labor is indivisible so all variability in hours worked is due to fluctuations in the number employed we find that unlike previous equilibrium models of the business cycle this economy displays large fluctuations in hours worked and relatively small fluctuations in productivity this finding is independent of individuals willingness to substitute leisure across time this and other findings are the result of studying and comparing summary statistics describing this economy an economy with divisible labor and post war u s time series

the potential benefits of herbicide resistant transgenic rice in uruguay lessons for small developing countries abstract in many developing countries the potential benefits from adopting a transgenic variety developed by a multinational corporation are limited by the crop s small production base this paper presents an ex ante evaluation of the economic impact of herbicide resistant transgenic rice in a small developing country uruguay to fully account for the multinational s market power the firm s seed markup is assumed to affect the adoption rate for the variety stochastic simulation techniques are employed to understand how potential benefits may vary with changes in technology yield costs and adoption parameters the results indicate a 1 82 million mean net present value for producers from the development and utilization of transgenic rice in uruguay and 0 55 million for the multinational these relatively small multinational firm benefits suggest that a firm will not undertake significant efforts to develop transgenic varieties adapted to local conditions without either strategic partnerships with local institutions or access to wider regional markets

ex ante agricultural research evaluation with site specific technology generation the case of sorghum in kenya abstract agricultural commodity research has very site specific productivity impacts crucial determinants of the magnitude and distribution of research benefits include agroecological conditions for technology generation and adoption as well as commodity market structure this paper presents a process for ex ante research evaluation which accounts for these factors with a dynamic spatial multi market model simulation results based on sorghum research in kenya demonstrate that potential research benefits can vary dramatically across program research target zones in kenya however population induced demand growth not technological development will have the greatest influence on future sorghum markets

tax analysis in a real business cycle model on measuring harberger triangles and okun gaps abstract a tax distorted real business cycle model is parameterized calibrated and solved numerically in an attempt to measure the size of harberger triangles relative to okun gaps in particular the model constructed is used to study quantitatively the impact of various distortional government tax and subsidy schemes it is shown that the government can use tax policy to stabilize cyclical fluctuations and this is done for the economy being studied the benefits of implementing such a stabilization policy are calculated and compared with the size of the welfare gains realized from reducing various tax distortions

the efficiency gains from dynamic tax reform this paper presents a new simulation methodology for determining the pure efficiency gains from tax reform along the general equilibrium rational expectations growth path of life cycle economies the principal findings concern the effects of switching from a proportional income tax with rates similar to those in the u s to either a proportional tax on consumption or a proportional tax on labor income a switch to consumption taxation generates a sustainable welfare gain of almost 2 percent of lifetime resources in contrast a transition to wage taxation generates a loss of greater than percent of lifetime re sources a second general result is that even a mild degree of progressivity in the income tax system imposes a very large efficiency cost this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

tax policy and capital allocation summary the purpose of this paper is to analyze the impact of u s tax policy on the efficiency of capital allocation to achieve this objective we employ an intertemporal general equilibrium model of the u s economy implemented econometrically for annual data covering the period 1955 1980 we present a detailed model of the provisions of u s tax law applicable to income from capital we use intertemporal equilibrium paths corresponding to alternative tax policies to evaluate proposals for tax reform we find that dramatic gains in economic welfare would result from a shift from direct to indirect taxation

production growth and business cycles ii new directions abstract this paper outlines new directions for investigations of real business cycle models consideration of stochastic growth of exogenous and endogenous forms analysis of suboptimal outcomes arising due to externalities of distorting taxes and implications of labor market heterogeneity

allocation of land tenure rights in tigray how large is the gender bias this study investigates gender differences in land ownership and use in northern ethiopia female headed households have 23 smaller owned landholdings and 54 smaller operational landholdings household endowments of nonland productive inputs are important but decomposition analysis shows that differences in observable characteristics such as labor and oxen explain less than half of these differences whereas the remaining differences can be attributed to differences in returns to these characteristics the latter suggests a gender bias in land allocation the main policy recommendation is to strengthen women s opportunities to cultivate their land and continue the process of securing women s tenure rights

gender agricultural production and the theory of the household virtually all models of the household assume that the allocation of resources is pareto efficient within many african households agricultural production occurs on many plots controlled by different members of the household pareto efficiency implies that factors should be allocated efficiently across these plots i find in contrast that plots controlled by women are farmed much less intensively than similar plots within the household controlled by men the estimates imply that about 6 percent of output is lost because of inefficient factor allocation within the household the paper suggests a new approach to modeling intrahousehold allocation consistent with the empirical results

swedish tax rates labor supply and tax revenues effective marginal tax rates on labor income for the representative swede have increased from roughly 50 percent in 1959 to 80 percent today the effects of this increase in the level of taxation are examined using a two sector model parameterized to correspond to the swedish economy the model contains a single household which allocates labor to either taxed essentially market or untaxed largely household uses the estimated long run effects are sufficient to explain up to 75 percent of the recent decline in the measured growth rate of the swedish gnp calculations of total tax revenues are also derived from the model these peak when the tax rate is approximately 70 percent indicating that sweden is presently on the downward sloping portion of its laffer curve

is public expenditure productive abstract this paper considers the relationship between aggregate productivity and stock and flow government spending variables the empirical results indicate that i the nonmilitary public capital stock is dramatically more important in determining productivity than is either the flow of nonmilitary or military spending ii military capital bears little relation to productivity and iii a core infrastructure of streets highways airports mass transit sewers water systems etc has most explanatory power for productivity the paper also suggests an important role for the net public capital stock in the productivity slowdown of the last fifteen years

land redistribution tenure insecurity and intensity of production a study of farm households in southern ethiopia this study analyzes the determinants of land tenure insecurity and its impact on intensity of use of purchased farm inputs among households in southern ethiopia seventeen percent of the households stated that they were tenure insecure the feeling of tenure insecurity could be caused by the land redistribution policy in ethiopia where household size has been the main criterion used for land allocation after the land reform in 1975 this would imply that land rich households should be more tenure insecure alternatively the local power structure may be strong enough to counter this and cause the land rich who are also likely to be influential to be able to protect their land rights the analysis revealed that in the overall sample relative farm size was not significantly correlated with tenure insecurity when testing for each site however we found that in four of the sites per capita farm size was positively associated with tenure insecurity while in five other sites it had a significant negative association this may be due to local historical cultural and demographic differences giving way to differences in the effects of the redistribution policy and the local power structure on tenure insecurity we assessed the impact of tenure insecurity on the intensity of use of purchased farm inputs the tenure insecurity variable was insignificant farmers in areas with a positive correlation between farm size and tenure insecurity were more likely to purchase farm inputs larger farms were more likely to use purchased inputs but this effect was lower in areas with a positive correlation between farm size and tenure insecurity poverty and subsistence constraints may explain this absence of higher intensity of use of purchased inputs on small farms by contrast the land redistribution policy may have improved small farms access to purchased farm inputs text of abstract

the welfare cost of factor taxation in a perfect foresight model this paper examines the marginal efficiency cost of various factor taxes in a dynamic general equilibrium model the au thor solves for the excess burden of anticipated and unanticipated t emporary and permanent tax policies using a range of estimates for taste and technology parameters he finds excess burdens larger than those indicated by previous studies that use static models these exc ess burdens are sensitive to parameter values and timing however th e rankings of alternative tax policies turn out to be insensitive to structural parameter values copyright 1987 by university of chicago press

real business cycles in this paper we demonstrate how certain very ordinary economic principles lead maximizing individuals to choose consumption production plans that display many of the characteristics commonly associated with business cycles our explanation is entirely consistent with i rational expectations ii complete current information iii stable preferences iv no technological change v no long lived commodities vi no frictions or adjustment costs vii no government viii no money and ix no serial dependence in the stochastic elements of the environment we also provide a completely worked out example of the type of artificial economy we have in mind the time series properties of the example exhibit some major features of observed business cycles although this type of model may not be capable of explaining all of the regularities in actual business cycles we believe that it provides a useful well defined benchmark for assessing the relative importance of factors e g monetary disturbances

taxation and uncertainty while taxes may be certain u s tax policy has certainly not been furthermore intrinsic economic risk makes investment decisions risky therefore a serious examination of the effects of tax policy on dynamic economic behavior should consider both sources of uncertainty this paper presents a simple theoretical and computational model that can analyze both intrinsic risk and uncertain taxation furthermore it will be clear that these techniques will be useful for examining general problems of taxation and risk when studying the impact of past and or proposed tax changes one of two extreme assumptions are usually made either agents are perfectly aware of future tax policy a perfect foresight assumption or they always believe that no change will ever occur a myopic foresight assumption these two assumptions yield substantially different views of recent tax experience as alan auerbach and james hines 1987 demonstrate in a partial equilibrium context both are clearly wrong the myopic specification assumes that individuals believe at each point in time that the current tax law will surely continue forever even after they have been hit repeatedly with tax changes on the other hand it is absurd to think that in say 1977 a significant number of individuals perfectly knew the various tax changes that would occur during the following decade this paper analyzes a dynamic general equilibrium model wherein taxpayers understand the uncertainty in tax policy when making their deci