the role of price and nonprice factors in predicting australia s trade performance this article investigates the role of price and nonprice factors in predicting australia s trade performance results broadly suggest that australia s trade performance is largely explained by the

economic mobility and poverty dynamics in developing countries this study provides an introduction to this special issue of the journal of development studies on economic mobility and poverty dynamics in developing countries in addition to providing a conceptual framework it outlines how the contributions fit into the extant literature a series of regularities emerge across these studies the poor consist of those who are always poor poor at all dates and those who move in and out of poverty with the latter group tending to be strikingly large such movements in and out of poverty are apparent when looking at poverty in either absolute or relative terms changes in returns to endowments can be a potent source of increased incomes finally seemingly transitory shocks can have long term consequences the study concludes by drawing out the policy implications of these regularities

the economics of poverty traps and persistent poverty an asset based approach abstract longitudinal data on household living standards open the way to a deeper analysis of the nature and extent of poverty while a number of studies have exploited this type of data to distinguish transitory from more chronic forms of income or expenditure poverty this paper develops an asset based approach to poverty analysis that makes it possible to distinguish deep rooted persistent structural poverty from poverty that passes naturally with time due to systemic growth processes drawing on the economic theory of poverty traps and bifurcated accumulation strategies this paper briefly discusses some feasible estimation strategies for empirically identifying poverty traps and long term persistent structural poverty as well as relevant extensions of the popular foster greer thorbecke class of poverty measures the paper closes with reflections on how asset based poverty can be used to underwrite the design of persistent poverty reduction strategies

on analyzing the world distribution of income consideration of world inequality should cause reexamination of the key concepts underlying the welfare approach to measuring income inequality and its relation to measuring poverty this reexamination leads to exploration of a new measure that allows poverty and inequality to be considered in the same framework incorporates different approaches to measuring inequality and allows varied expressions of the cost of inequality applied to the world distribution of income for 1820 1992 the new measure provides different perspectives on the evolution of global inequality

the working behavior of young people in rural cote d ivoire one of the major features of structural adjustment is an attempt to reallocate laborand hence output through changes in relative prices this article assesses how price changes affect the working patterns of young people in rural c6te d7voire the analysis is based on a model of the labor supply of rural households and on the construction of composite price indexes the data come from the c6te d ivoire living standards survey for 1985 and 1986 the panel aspect of the data allows the work choice made in one year to depend on the individual s choice in the previous year results indicate that the price of agricultural output generally is a positive incentive on the decision to participate in the labor force however this result depends heavily on the employment and education of the individual in the previous period those not already working are less likely to respond to favorable movements in the prices of cash crops by entering the work force this article reports on research on the determinants of working patterns among young people in rural c6te d ivoire because young people s decisions about working are closely related to decisions about schooling the article also focuses on the relationship between work and school the motivation for this study arises from an interest in the effects of structural adjustment programs on work incentives structural adjustment is expected to increase output by altering the incentives facing producers the effect of improved incentives could in principle be measured by directly observing changes in output the time lag between the change in incentives and the change in output can be substantial however especially when tree crops are involved so that data over a long period may be

determinants of income mobility and household poverty dynamics in south africa this article analyses household income mobility among africans in south africa s most populous province kwazulu natal between 1993 and 1998 compared to industrialised and most developing countries mobility has been quite high as might have been expected after the transition in south africa this finding is robust when measurement error is controlled for when disaggregating the sources of mobility it is found that demographic changes and employment changes account for most of the mobility observed which is related to rapidly shifting household boundaries and a very volatile labour market in an environment of high unemployment using a multivariate analysis it can be seen that transitory incomes play a large role four types of poverty traps are found associated with large initial household size poor initial education poor initial asset endowment and poor initial employment access that dominate the otherwise observed regression towards the mean

horizontal and vertical intra industry trade in australian manufacturing does trade liberalization have any impact this paper contributes to the literature on intra industry trade iit by disentangling such trade into horizontally and vertically differentiated products and investigating their determinants in the context of trade liberalization in australia iit in australian manufacturing has increased following trade liberalization in 1980s and is increasingly dominated by vertically differentiated products industry level evidence confirms that the failure to segregate iit into horizontally and vertically differentiated products produces misleading results as their determinants differ also structural changes brought about by the policy liberalization appear to have an impact on total as well vertical iit

assessing the extent and nature of chronic poverty in low income countries issues and evidence discussions of chronic poverty have mostly considered its monetary dimensions with current evidence suggesting that such poverty is much more transient than chronic but chronic poverty is a real and important phenomenon potentially more important quantitatively than it first appears once account is taken of different methodological approaches and inevitable measurement difficulties the chronic poor have distinctive characteristics such as lack of assets or high dependency rates which may account for their persistent poverty the paper argues that it is also necessary to develop concepts of chronic poverty further covering relevant nonmonetary dimensions and not just relying on panel data

ranking income distributions a large variety of policy questions involve choices between social states and a consequent ordering of the feasible alternatives when these social states are related to the levels of welfare experienced by individuals or households two central issues stand out in determining the relative desirability of different social outcomes one of these is the essentially positive exercise of achieving comparability between households with different characteristics such as composition or preferences operating in different environments for example facing different price structures the other concerns the normative judgments implicit in the evaluation of alternative allocations of resourcesthe emphasis placed on inequality between households and the extent to which greater inequality can be compensated by higher average living standards this paper focuses on the second of these issues and in doing so we abstract from the problem of household comparability by considering a population of n households identical in all respects except for their incomes the question of ordering social states then becomes one of ranking income distributions over a group of anonymous households or individuals borrowing the usual assumptions imposed on consumer preferences we may suppose that a social ordering of income distributions can be represented by a welfare function 2

structural change and poverty in africa a decomposition anakysis for cote d ivoire abstract this paper provides evidence that economic destabilization and the absence of managed structural change in an economy can be more harmful to the welfare of the poor than the process of adjustment itself evidence comes from four consecutive years of household survey data from cote d ivoire spanning both a period of adjustment and destabilization these constitute a unique data base in africa to assess the impact of structural change on the poor the analytic methodology used is that of static and dynamic decomposition of poverty measures along policy relevant dimensions

productivity and technical choice applications to the textile industry abstract this paper analyzes past choices of technology and present levels of productivity in the philippines cotton spinning and weaving industries detailed engineering and economic information are used to assess the costs of alternative technologies to estimate levels of productivity relative to international standards of best practice and to analyze the sources of productivity short falls high costs of production are due both to inappropriate technological choices and to low productivity in the use of the technologies chosen the major sources of low productivity are lack of sufficient firm level specialization among product varieties and deficient firm level technological capabilities inadequate labor skills are not a major problem the discussion emphasizes the general applicability of the analysis wherever low productivity is likely to be a problem

the influence of management characteristics on the technical efficiency of wheat farmers in eastern england technical efficiency of wheat farms in eastern england is measured through the estimation of a stochastic frontier production function using panel data for the 1993 1997 crop years variations in the technical efficiency index across production units are explained through a number of managerial and farm characteristic variables following battese and coelli 1995 empirical econ 20 325 332 and incorporating the spirit of rougoor et al 1998 agric econ 18 261 272 the technical efficiency index across production units ranges from 62 to 98 the objectives of maximising annual profits and maintaining the environment are positively correlated with and have the largest influence on technical efficiency moreover those farmers who seek information have more years of managerial experience and have a large farm are also associated with higher levels of technical efficiency future studies that seek to explain variation in technical efficiency should include further aspects of the managerial decision making process

chronic and transitory poverty evidence from egypt 1997 99 abstract this paper uses a panel data of 347 households in egypt to measure changes in household consumption during 1997 99 and to identify causes behind the changes per capita consumption has decreased for the households during this time the decrease has not been dramatic but it has occurred at all points along the distribution over the two year period the number of households who have fallen into poverty is over twice as large as the number of households who have climbed out of poverty about two thirds of overall poverty is chronic average consumption over time is below the poverty line and almost half of all poor are always poor we use quantile regression methods to identify the factors that explain total chronic and transitory poverty while our analysis is able to document the extent of transitory poverty it performs relatively poorly in explaining the determinants of this type of poverty the predominantly chronic nature of poverty in our sample and our ability to identify associated characteristics strengthens the case for targeting antipoverty interventions such as food subsidies

unveiling the ethics behind inequality measurement dalton s contribution to economics this article assesses the importance of dalton s 1920 paper in the economic journal for subsequent developments in income distribution analysis

liberalization growth and structural change evidence from nepalese manufacturing this paper presents an empirical analysis of the consequences of liberalization on industrial structure in nepal a least developed country with weak institutions and severe infrastructure bottlenecks results suggest some structural change in manufacturing output and trade orientation which appears to be due to a change in incentive structure but no significant improvements were recorded in total factor productivity growth which is of central importance for a least developed country like nepal export intensity rose significantly in the postliberalization period despite poor productivity performance of export oriented industries while import intensity fell due mainly to improved competitiveness in import competing industries and a fall in imports for smuggling to india

poverty and basic needs fulfilment in africa during structural change evidence from cote d ivoire abstract much attention is given in the literature to the evolution of social indicators during periods of structural adjustment and economic reform this paper argues that these processes are not distribution neutral from the point of view of basic needs fulfilment and that hence the focus should not be on aggregate indicators but on the distribution of beneficiaries of social services and changes in this distribution evidence is presented for cote d ivoire during the second half of the 1980s a period of intense structural change which shows that the poorest absorbed the bulk of the decline in basic needs fulfilment as a result of structural change this was the case for almost all aspects of basic needs and occurred regardless of the overall trend in the social indicators

correcting for sampling bias in the measurement of welfare and poverty in the cote d ivoire living standards survey the sampling aspects of a household data set are important to analysts the early years of the cote d ivoire standards survey cilss had a sampling bias which seriously affected estimates of population statistics such as household size the bias arose from sampling procedures that overrepresented larger dwellings assuming that samples drawn in later years were unbiased a correction procedure is applied that uses weights based on household size results from the weighted data are then compared with the unweighted findings to assess the seriousness of the bias estimates of household expenditure per capita in the early years of the survey are found to be significantly underestimated resulting in an overestimation of poverty the sampling bias also resulted in an underestimation of the upward trend in poverty during 1985 88 the cilss has been a popular and fruitful data set for policy analysis these findings however cast doubt on the robustness of earlier work thus the effort to trace sampling information is particularly worthwhile for policy oriented applied research

modeling winegrape prices in disequilibrium this article presents an econometric model of winegrape prices which recognizes the existence of demand and supply imbalances in the australian market a markets in disequilibrium framework is employed to motivate modeling price changes as responding to variations in excess demand solidus supply the disequilibrium price equation provides estimates of regional and varietal price discounts solidus premiums and a measure of the speed of disequilibrium price adjustment the equilibrium assumption is rejected for the market and substantial differences between equilibrium and disequilibrium estimates point to the inaccuracies of assuming market clearing disequilibrium estimates point to significant differences between warm and cool regions and changing speed of disequilibrium adjustment over time

firm size age and efficiency evidence from kenyan manufacturing firms translog stochastic frontier production functions are estimated using an unbalanced panel of 235 kenyan manufacturing firms in the food wood textile and metal sectors the sectors are estimated individually in order to investigate whether technical efficiency is systematically related to the size and age of firms the evidence suggests that firm size has a positive and significant effect in the wood and textile sectors the age effect is less systematic but is insignificant in all sectors except textiles

the lucky few amidst economic decline distributional change in cote d ivoire as seen through panel data sets 1985 88 this article is an exploratory exercise in using panel data sets to investigate distributional change in cote d ivoire during the second half of the 1980s the panels made it possible to highlight and quantify mobility of the same households across poverty classes over time we found that there were a lucky few who improved their standard of living amid general decline detailed investigations revealed that the lucky few were fairly numerous and the probability of escaping poverty was quite high even for the very poorest these lucky few were widespread regionally although in some socio economic groupings the poor had higher chances of escaping poverty

what has happened to the urban population in cote d ivoire since the 1980s an analysis of monetary poverty and deprivation over 15 years of household data abstract this article investigates the evolution of urban poverty in its various dimensions in cote d ivoire since the 1980s the robustness of the results is checked using dominance criteria an econometric analysis of poverty complements the analysis the study shows that the dynamic of poverty in terms of existence conditions can significantly differ from that of monetary poverty as was the case in the 1980s monetary poverty increased strongly in the 1990s in spite of a return to sustained growth following the devaluation of the cfa franc poverty in terms of existence conditions rose less before the adjustment and even decreased afterward

the comparison of multi dimensioned distributions of economic status the literature on inequality measurement has been largely concerned with single dimensioned indicators this paper explores some of the issues which arise when there are several dimensions to inequality and these are not readily reduced to a single index concentrating particularly on the two dimensioned case we make use of results on multi variate stochastic dominance in portfolio theory extending these and applying them to the measurement of inequality the use of the dominance conditions is illustrated by an application to the international distribution of income and life expectancy

poverty transition and persistence in ethiopia 1994 2004 summary this study analyzes the persistence of poverty in both rural and urban areas in ethiopia during 1994 2004 the key finding is that households move frequently in and out of poverty but the difficulty of exiting from poverty like the chance of avoiding slipping back increases with the time spent in that state and varies considerably between male and female headed households our results imply that it is important to design anti poverty policies both to hinder households from slipping into extreme poverty and to minimize the length of the poverty spell for households once they have fallen into it

one kind of freedom poverty dynamics in post apartheid south africa abstract a 1993 south african living standards survey documented the legacy of apartheid in the form high levels of inequality and human insecurity drawing on a 1998 re survey of households in the 1993 study this paper explores whether this legacy has been superseded or whether apartheid s end has been only one kind of freedom that has left households in a poverty trap from which they cannot escape after proposing a theoretically grounded dynamic poverty typology that distinguishes stochastic from structural poverty transitions the paper goes on to estimate that significant numbers of the south african poor are potentially trapped in a structural poverty trap and lack the means to escape poverty over time

the limits of trade policy reform in developing countries trade reform is now raising some new issues this paper deals with three sets of questions first how can trade reform be sustained can governments convince business labor or consumers that trade reform will be lasting so as to forestall possible adverse reactions that would jeopardize the sustainability of the reform second what role should trade reform play when it is implemented in the context of macroeconomic instability are there potential conflicts between the standard desiderata for trade reform and the requirements of macro stability finally should we be worried about the consequences of trade reform in the imperfectly competitive market environments that characterize the developing economies

ex ante inequality of opportunity in health decomposition and distributional analysis of biomarkers abstract we use a set of biomarkers to measure inequality of opportunity iop in the risk of major chronic conditions in the uk applying a direct ex ante iop approach we find that inequalities in biomarkers attributed to circumstances account for a non trivial part of the total variation for example observed circumstances account for 20 of the total inequalities in our composite measure of multi system health risk allostatic load we propose an extension to the decomposition of ex ante iop to complement the mean based approach analysing the contribution of circumstances across the quantiles of the biomarker distributions shapley decompositions show that for most of the biomarkers the percentage contribution of socioeconomic circumstances education and childhood socioeconomic status relative to differences attributable to age and gender increase towards the right tail of the biomarker distribution where health risks are more pronounced

determinants of efficiency in least developed countries further evidence from nepalese manufacturing firms using a translog stochastic production frontier and maximum likelihood econometric methods we estimate and model the determinants of firm level efficiency in the nepalese context our results are broadly in line with theoretical expectations we find that large firms are more efficient and that a higher capital intensity leads to inefficiency there is no statistical evidence to suggest that foreign participation leads to efficiency improvements also we do not observe any link between export intensity and efficiency improvement we find that higher protection leads to inefficiency overall our results suggest that an outward looking industrial strategy which relies on less intervention and permits the development of large scale industries is conducive to efficiency improvement in least developed countries ldcs like nepal

on the measurement of poverty official statistics in the united states and the united kingdom show a rise in poverty between the 1970 s and the 1980 s but scepticism has been expressed with regard to these findings in particular the methods employed in the measurement of poverty have been the subject of criticism this paper re examines three basic issues in measuring poverty the choice of the poverty line the index of poverty and the relation between poverty and inequality one general theme running through the paper is that there is a diversity of judgments which enter the measurement of poverty and that it is necessary to recognize these explicitly in the procedures adopted there is likely to be disagreement about the choice of poverty line affecting both its level and its structure in this situation we may only be able to make comparisons and not to measure differences and the comparisons may lead only to a partial rather than a complete ordering the first section of the paper discusses the stochastic dominance conditions which allow such comparisons illustrating their application by reference to data for the united states the choice of poverty measure has been the subject of an extensive literature and a variety of measures have been proposed in the second section of the paper a different approach is suggested considering a class of measures satisfying certain general properties and seeking conditions under which all members of the class which includes many of those proposed give the same ranking those sceptical about measures of poverty often assert that poverty and inequality are being confounded the third section of the paper distinguishes four different viewpoints and relates them to theories of justice and views of social welfare

economic reform growth and the poor evidence from rural ethiopia abstract a new decomposition of poverty changes is developed to analyse the determinants of poverty changes during a period of economic reform 1989 1995 in villages in ethiopia poverty fell substantially but with diverse experiences across villages shocks mattered but the main factors driving consumption changes were relative prices changes resulting in changes in the returns to land labour human capital and location the experience of the poor is mixed one group of the poor in 1989 with relatively good land and location outperformed all other households while another group with much poorer endowments and location experienced virtually unchanged and persistent poverty