accession of the czech republic hungary and poland to the european union impacts on agricultural markets we analyse the consequences on agricultural markets of enlargement of the european union eu to include the czech republic hungary and poland we produce a market outlook up to 2010 for two enlargement scenarios assuming different policy restrictions on grain and dairy production in the acceding countries accession of the three central and eastern european countries ceecs leads to a permanent but moderate decrease in eu prices for most commodities in the three acceding ceecs domestic prices increase drastically final consumption of agricultural products decreases in most instances while production increases higher domestic prices in the ceecs reduce exports of most commodities to non union countries consequently excess supplies are placed in stocks or exported to the original 15 member countries supply management mechanisms in the dairy and grain sectors would reduce the build up of surpluses in the new member states but limit their ability to take advantage of the expanded market accession of the three ceecs would increase the cap budget over its proposed maximum if area payments are extended to incoming crop producers

does economic recession reduce material use empirical evidence based on 157 economies worldwide abstract the research on economic recession has been more focused on the interactions between macroeconomic and financial variables however whether material use has been affected during the recession period has remained under explored in order to fill up this gap this study investigates the relationship between material use and economic recession as well as other socio economic drivers by using the material flow analysis and the system generalized method of moments for 157 economies worldwide during 1980 2011 results show that economic recession poses significant and negative impact on domestic material consumption at 1 level illustrating its role as a determinant factor on material mitigation by dividing the research sample into extractive and non extractive economies as well as high mid and low income groups we again confirmed the significant negative correlations as expected no significant sign is found between recession and physical trade balance besides other drivers such as population gross domestic production gdp per capita and technological variables also exert marked effects at different situations this research work provides an empirical study on how recession and other factors affect material use at various scenarios which have essential implications for understanding material flow dynamics in different economic cycles

asset prices credit and the business cycle abstract this paper uses the multivariate unobserved components model with phase shifts to analyse the interaction of interest rates output asset prices and credit in the us we find close linkages amongst cyclical fluctuations in the variables

will business cycles in the euro area converge a critical survey of empirical research this survey of business cycle synchronization in the european monetary union focuses on two issues have business cycles become more similar and which factors drive business cycle synchronization we conclude that business cycles in the euro area have gone through periods of both convergence and divergence still there is quite some evidence that during the 1990s business cycle synchronization in the euro area has increased higher trade intensity is found to lead to more synchronization but the point estimates vary widely the evidence for other factors affecting business cycle synchronization is very mixed

we the rich inequality identity and cooperation abstract inequality not only generates status differentials between rich and poor individuals it also generates status differentials between groups of different composition and income level we organise the social structure within which groups are embedded to manipulate their composition and relative status thus inducing weaker or stronger group identities in their members via the processes of social categorization identification and comparison we therefore manipulate the fundamental components of group identity rather than resorting to ad hoc identity reinforcement tasks how strongly individuals identify with each group will ultimately determine the degree of cooperativeness within the group and the whole society we find that the impact of inequality on social cooperativeness is not trivial cooperation varies with the strength of the group s identity as predicted by social identity theory in particular high endowment homogeneous groups cooperate most and increasingly over time low endowment homogeneous groups display intermediate levels of cooperation heterogeneous groups cooperate least a result driven by lack of cooperation on behalf of the rich as endowment sizes and groups are exogenously allocated we argue that our findings are a lower bound for the effects generated where endowments and groups are endogenously determined in or outside of the laboratory

output dynamics in real business cycles models the time series literature reports two stylized facts about output dynamics in the united states gnp growth is positively autocorrelated and gnp appears to have an important trend reverting component this paper investigates whether current real business cycle rbc models are consistent with these stylized facts many rbc models have weak internal propagation mechanisms and must rely on external sources of dynamics to replicate both facts models that incorporate labor adjustment costs are partially successful they endogenously generate positive autocorrelation in output growth but they need implausibly large transitory shocks to match the trend reverting component in output

social identity and social free riding abstract we model individual identification choice as a strategic group formation problem when choosing a social group to identify with individuals appreciate high social status and a group stereotype to which they have a small social distance a group s social status and stereotype are shaped by the exogenous individual attributes of its members and hence endogenous to individuals choices unless disutility from social distance is strong enough this creates a strategic tension as individuals with attributes that contribute little to group status would like to join high status groups thereby diluting the latters status and changing stereotypes such social free riding motivates the use of soft exclusion technologies in high status groups which provides a unifying rationale for phenomena such as hazing rituals charitable activities or status symbols that is not taste based or follows a standard signaling mechanism

natural groups and economic characteristics as driving forces of wage discrimination we investigate whether the origin of an employee provides different motives for wage discrimination in gift exchange experiments with students and migrant workers in china in a lab and an internet experiment subjects in the role of employers can condition their wages on the employees home provinces the resulting systematic differences in wages can be linked to natural groups and economic characteristics of the provinces in group favoritism increases wages for employees who share the same origin as the employer while an increased probability of being matched with an employee with a different ethnicity reduces wages furthermore wages in the laboratory increase with the actual wage level in the employees home province nevertheless employees effort is not influenced by these variables only the wage paid in the experiment influences effort

peer pressure and partnerships partnerships and profit sharing are often claimed to motivate workers by giving them a share of the pie but in organizations of any significant size the free rider effects would seem to choke off

the introduction of formal insurance and its effect on redistribution abstract transfers motivated by altruism guilt and norms of giving play an important role in supporting individuals who suffer losses due to risk we present empirical evidence from an artefactual field experiment in ethiopia in which we introduce formal insurance in a setting where donors make redistributive transfers to recipients who experience losses we find that donors tend to reduce their transfers to recipients who are offered insurance whether or not they take it up when insurance is rejected by a recipient transfer reductions are larger for donors who firmly expect that the recipient would take up insurance the results are consistent with a framework in which the introduction of insurance erodes norms of giving by revealing differences in the extent to which individuals value precautionary behavior with respect to risk taking welfare calculations show that when formal insurance is introduced the welfare of those who fail to take it up may be reduced

the impact of group membership on cooperation and norm enforcement evidence using random assignment to real social groups due to incomplete contracts efficiency of an organization depends on willingness of individuals to take non selfish actions such as cooperating when there is no incentive to do so or punishing inefficient actions by others organizations also constitute a social boundary or group we investigate whether this social aspect of organizations has an important benefit fostering unselfish cooperation and norm enforcement within the group but also whether there is a dark side in the form of hostility between groups our experiment provides the first evidence free from the confounding effect of self selection into groups individuals are randomly assigned to different platoons during a four week period of officer training in the swiss army we conduct choice experiments simultaneous prisoner s dilemma games with and without third party punishment in week three random assignment significantly increases willingness to cooperate with fellow platoon members assignment does not lead to hostility in the sense of vindictive punishment of outsiders but does affect norm enforcement enhancing willingness to enforce a norm of cooperation towards fellow platoon members this suggests that the social aspect of organizations motivates efficient behavior even when ordinary incentives fail and helps to explain practices designed to foster social ties or group identification within an organization this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

judicial ingroup bias in the shadow of terrorism we study ingroup bias the preferential treatment of members of one s own group in naturally occurring data where economically signi cant allocation decisions are made under a strong non discriminatory norm data come from rulings in israeli small claims courts during 2000 04 a period characterized by intense ethnically based terrorism our analysis exploits the essentially random assignment of cases to judges jewish or arab and the exogeneity of terrorist attacks with respect to the legal procedure evidence suggests the existence of substantial bias a claim is around 15 more likely to be accepted if assigned to a judge of the same ethnicity as the plainti furthermore we nd that this bias increases with the intensity of terrorism in the vicinity of the court during the period preceding the ruling the results are consistent with existing theory and lab evidence according to which salience of group membership enhances social identi cation

the effects of group composition in a strategic environment evidence from a field experiment abstract recent theoretical and empirical studies have explored the effect of group membership and identity on individual decision making this line of research highlights that economic models focusing on the individual as the sole entity in the decision making environment potentially miss critical features this study takes this literature in a new direction by overlaying a field experiment onto a setting where groups have arisen naturally our experimental laboratory is large open air markets where we are able to examine the effects of group membership on seller s collusive behavior as measured by prices and surplus allocations this permits us to explore strategic implications of group composition empirical results illustrate the importance of group composition on pricing decisions and show that deviations from nash equilibrium are crucially related to group membership

detrending and turning points this paper examines the sensitivity of turning points classification to different detrending methods and the ability of each method to replicate nber dating we use two different turning point rules and a variety of detrending methods to compute the cyclical component of output we show that while differences are minor with the first rule the results are extremely sensitive to detrending with the second rule many detrending procedures generate false alarms and many miss several commonly classified turning points the output series detrended with the hodrick and prescott filter and with a frequency domain masking of the low frequency components of the series reproduce all nber turning points with at most two quarters lead or lag regardless of the dating rule used

do european business cycles look like one abstract this paper provides a comprehensive framework to analyze business cycle features other than synchronization we use stationary bootstrap and model based clustering methods to analyze similarities and differences among the european cycles we find evidence that the length deep and shape of cycles differ across european countries and that these differences are not decreasing over time finally even though we find some correlation between business cycle synchronization and characteristics there is important information in the characteristics that is not captured by the synchronization measures

does electoral competition exacerbate interethnic or interpartisan economic discrimination evidence from a field experiment in market price bargaining does political competition exacerbate economic discrimination between citizens on ethnic or partisan cleavages individuals often discriminate on group lines in ordinary economic activities especially in low income settings political competition and thus mobilization of partisan and ethnic groups waxes and wanes over the electoral cycle this study therefore investigates discrimination over the electoral cycle in a commonplace yet consequential economic activity market price bargaining by conducting field experiments on taxi fare bargaining at three points in time around ghana s 2008 election the research reveals that drivers accept lower prices from coethnics regardless of temporal proximity to the election however only at election time drivers accept lower prices from copartisans and demand higher prices from noncopartisans in sum political competition affects commonplace economic transactions between citizens on the partisan cleavage this study is the first to show evidence of interpartisan discrimination in everyday behavior and expands our knowledge of electoral cycle effects

cooperation when n is large evidence from the mining camps of the american west abstract the sources of cooperation in small groups are well documented there is however less understanding about cooperation in large groups i study the enforcement of property rights in the mining camps of the american west miners demanded secure property rights and protection from violence to exploit the region s mineral wealth in the model miners must divide their labor between mining and supporting property rights institutions the main prediction of the model is that cooperation in property rights enforcement emerges only when social norms of cooperation are sufficiently widespread the model also predicts that social norms are less effective in mining camps with large populations or high labor productivity i test these predictions against detailed evidence from the letters diaries and reminiscences of miners in 25 camps in california colorado and montana and find that the evidence supports the predictions the results show that social norms can significantly lower the costs of collective action in large groups

measuring business cycles a modern perspective in the first half of this century special attention was given to two features of the business cycle 1 the comovement of many individual economic series and 2 the different behavior of the economy during expansions and contractions both of these attributes were ignored in many subsequent business cycle models which were often linear representations of a single macroeconomic aggregate however recent theoretical and empirical research has revived interest in each attribute separately notably dynamic factor models have been used to obtain a single common factor from a set of macroeconomic variables and nonlinear models have been used to describe the regime switching nature of aggregate output we survey these two strands of research and then provide some suggestive empirical analysis in an effort to unite the two literatures and to assess their usefulness in a statistical characterization of business cycle dynamics

identity and the economics of organizations on plebes first day at west point called r day they strip down to their underwear their hair is cut off they are put in uniform they then must address an older cadet with the proper salute and with the statement sir new cadet doe reports to the cadet in the red sash for the first time as ordered plebes must stand and salute and repeat and stand and salute and repeat until they get it exactly right all the while being reprimanded for every tiny mistake in the summary of david lipsky 2003 pp 145 154 who spent four years tracking a company of cadets at west point on r day you surrender your old self in stages but r day is just the beginning of the training and personal re engineering that is to come so that west point graduates emerge four years later as loyal officers in the u s army lipsky shows that despite some failure this tough program is remarkably successful in creating officers with the will to lead in battle economists current picture of organizations and work incentives has no place for the west point program and the motivations it seeks to inculcate in recruits in a standard economic model an individual s preferences are fixed and utility depends only on pecuniary variables the army s aim at west point is to change cadets preferences they wish to inculcate non economic motives in the cadets so that they have the same goals as the u s army alternatively stated the goal of west point is to change the identity of the cadets so they will think of themselves above all else as officers in the u s army they will feel bad about themselves they will lose utility if they fall short of the ideals of such an officer this change in identity

asymmetric phase shifts in u s industrial production cycles abstract we identify cyclical turning points for 74 u s manufacturing industries and uncover new empirical regularities a industries tend to comove between expansion and contraction phases over the business cycle b clusters of industry turning points are highly asymmetric between peaks and troughs troughs are much more concentrated and sharper than peaks c the temporal pattern of phase shifts across industries supports the spillovers through input output linkages and d macroeconomic shocks such as unanticipated changes in monetary policy government spending oil prices and financial conditions are significant drivers of industrial phase shifts

on the severity of economic downturns lessons from cross country evidence abstract we measure the severity of recessions as a function of their amplitude and duration within a quantile regression framework we assess what causes economic downturns to be more or less severe we find that the most severe downturns have striking similarities regarding cumulated domestic credit and large current account deficits

explaining the diversity of motivations behind community renewable energy community based renewable energy initiatives may be important actors in the transition toward low carbon energy systems in turn stimulating investments in renewable energy production at the community level requires a better understanding of investors motives this paper aims to study the heterogeneity of motivations that drive individuals to participate in community renewable energy projects and the underlying explanatory factors behind this as well as the implications for their level of engagement in initiatives based on quantitative data from an original survey conducted with two renewable energy cooperatives in flanders the statistical analysis shows that cooperative members should not be considered as one homogeneous group several categories of members with different motives and levels of engagement can be distinguished this heterogeneity is explained by contrasts in terms of institutional settings spatial patterns and attitudes to the diffusion of institutional innovations regarding policy implications the findings suggest that this heterogeneity should be taken into account in designing more effective supporting policies to stimulate investments at the community level the activation of social norms is also shown to be a promising mechanism for triggering investment decisions although the implications of its interplay with economic incentives should be further explored

detrending and business cycle facts a user s guide this note argues that it is hardly the case that the profession is fully aware that the application of di erent filters to the data leads to di erent outcomes and that we have enough evidence to claim that these di erences are unimportant to evaluate the fit models to the data 1998 elsevier science b v all rights reserved jel classification b41 e32

the development of egalitarianism altruism spite and parochialism in childhood and adolescence we study how the distribution of other regarding preferences develops with age based on a set of allocation choices we classify each of 717 subjects aged 8 17 years as either egalitarian altruistic or spiteful we find a strong decrease in spitefulness with increasing age egalitarianism becomes less frequent and altruism much more prominent with age females are more frequently classified as egalitarian than males and less often as altruistic by varying the allocation recipient as either an in group or an out group member we also study how parochialism develops with age parochialism emerges significantly in the teenage years

can t buy me love a field experiment exploring the trade off between income and caste status in an indian matrimonial market i introduction the relationship between economic motive and observance of discriminatory social customs is hardly new to economists this is implicit in the writings of becker 1957 1973 1974 on discrimination and other social customs and explicit in arrow s essay 1972 on discrimination and akerlof s work 1980 on the interactive relationship between economic incentives and discriminatory social customs as scholars like becker arrow and akerlof have investigated the relationship between economic incentives and the prevalence of custom based discrimination of which status based discrimination is an example it is natural to consult the related empirical evidence on the impact of economic incentives on the extent of status based discrimination surprisingly the extant empirical literature is mostly silent on how economic incentives may directly interact with status based discrimination 1 this is atypical as one would be hard pressed to find an issue as weighty as status based discrimination yet our knowledge in this aspect remains oddly limited our study aspires to rectify this gap this study investigates whether and what magnitude of economic incentive can diminish the incidence of status based discrimination by designing a controlled field experiment in an actual marketplace a reputable arranged marriage market that is conducted via newspaper advertisements the existing literature suggests that this market might be especially prone to strong discriminatory mate selection behavior based on the social identity status of an individual where caste identity of an individual is an easily measured indicator of social status the genesis of this discrimination can be attributed to a high status female s concern for a decline in her social status if she engages in a marital relationship with a low status male against this backdrop we ask whether a low status male could attempt to weaken this enduring form of discrimination by providing systematic economic incentive in the form of high monthly groom incomes to a high status female so that the former s marriage proposal receives preliminary consideration by the latter conditional on both individuals participation in this market the marketplace that we utilize is a well functioning arranged marriage market conducted via matrimonial advertisements in a widely circulated bengali language newspaper marriageable males in this market typically advertise their caste and income information among other attributes after these advertisements appear in the newspaper interested families contact the advertiser mostly in form of detailed letters expressing their interest in that advertisement this provides a confidential and reliable measure of first intent of the interested party in this case females therefore the conjunction of an exceptionally strong status based mate selection behavior a reputed market for arranged marriages and an exclusive correspondence process furnish us with a unique opportunity to investigate the main research hypothesis of our study to the best of our knowledge this is the first field experiment that exclusively focuses on how economic incentives can influence status based discrimination in an actual market 2 to operationalize the experiment we create nine unique matrimonial advertisements each representing a fictitious groom type 3 these potential grooms belong to one of the three blocks where each block contains three grooms from a given caste group we vary the caste status across these blocks we consider three different caste groups high middle and low strictly ranked so in the study region we vary the income features of grooms within a block we consider three different monthly income levels i e high medium and low that are considered feasible for each caste group in the study region furthermore we randomly assign other characteristics relevant for this market to all the potential grooms so that these features on average do not affect the behavior of responders

trust ethnic diversity and personal contact a field experiment abstract we study how close personal contact with minorities affects in group and out group trust in a field experiment in the armed forces soldiers are randomly assigned to rooms with or without ethnic minorities at the end of the recruit period we measure trust by using a trust game results indicate that close personal contact with minorities increases trust towards a generic immigrant we replicate the result that individuals coming from more ethnically diverse areas trust minorities less but random assignment to interact with minority soldiers removes this negative correlation we conclude that social integration involving personal contact can reduce negative effects of ethnic diversity on trust

business cycle stylized facts and inventory behaviour new evidence for the euro area abstract the purpose of this paper is for the first time to use business tendency survey data first to identify new facts that are useful for the interpretation of the decline in the volatility of real activity in the euro area and second to test the inventory management hypothesis as an explanation for the great moderation in europe we present stylized facts from the business tendency data on series for inventories current production current orders and expected production for the euro area emphasizing the decline in the volatility of the series further we investigate whether the decline in inventory volatility can be attributed to an endogenous change in the persistence of shocks to the accumulation dynamics of inventories or to an exogenous change in the shocks hitting the inventory optimisation process our results at euro level generally indicate that there is no evidence of a break in the inventory accumulation process on the contrary the impact of exogenous shocks on inventory volatility appears to be steadily declining over time beginning from the mid 1980s

social identity and inequality the impact of china s hukou system abstract we conduct an experimental study to investigate the causal impact of social identity on individuals performance under incentives we focus on china s household registration hukou system which favors urban residents and discriminates against rural residents in resource allocation our results show that making individuals hukou identity salient significantly reduces the performance of rural migrant students relative to their local urban counterparts on an incentivized cognitive task and consequently significantly lowers their relative ranking in the earnings distribution under the piece rate regime however the impact of hukou identity salience is insignificant in the tournament regime suggesting that its negative effect on migrant students performance may be mitigated when competition is introduced the results demonstrate the impact of institutionally imposed social identity on individuals economic performance and potentially on inequality

nonlinear autoregressive leading indicator models of output in g 7 countries this paper studies linear and nonlinear autoregressive leading indicator models of business cycles in g 7 countries our models use the spread between short term and long term interest rates as leading indicators for gdp we examine data admissibility by determining whether these models have the ability to produce time series with classical cycles that resemble the observed classical cycles in the data and then we ask whether this data admissibility lends itself to better predictions of the probability of recession copyright 2007 john wiley sons ltd

what drives taxi drivers a field experiment on fraud in a market for credence goods credence goods are characterized by informational a symmetries between sellers and consumers that invite fraudulent behavior by seller s this paper presents the results of a natural field experiment on taxi rides in athens g reece set up to measure different types of fraud and to examine the influence of passengers p resumed information and income on the extent of fraud results reveal that taxi drivers c heat passengers in systematic ways passengers with inferior information about optimal routes are taken on longer detours while asymmetric information on the local tariff system l eads to manipulated bills higher income seems to lead to more fraud

interconnections between eurozone and us booms and busts using a bayesian panel markov switching var model summary the proposed panel markov switching var model accommodates changes in low and high data frequencies and incorporates endogenous time varying transition matrices of country specific markov chains allowing for interconnections an efficient multi move sampling algorithm draws time varying markov switching chains using industrial production growth and credit spread data several important data features are obtained three regimes appear with slow growth becoming persistent in the eurozone turning point analysis indicates the usa leading the eurozone cycle amplification effects influence recession probabilities for eurozone countries a credit shock results in temporary negative industrial production growth in germany spain and the usa core and peripheral countries exist in the eurozone copyright 2016 john wiley sons ltd

should we reject the natural rate hypothesis fifty years ago milton friedman articulated the natural rate hypothesis it was composed of two sub hypotheses first the natural rate of unemployment is independent of monetary policy second there is no long run trade off between the deviation of unemployment from the natural rate and inflation both propositions have been challenged the paper reviews the arguments and the macro and micro evidence against each it concludes that in each case the evidence is suggestive but not conclusive policymakers should keep the natural rate hypothesis as their null hypothesis but keep an open mind and put some weight on the alternatives

labor market distortions under sovereign debt default crises risk of sovereign debt default has frequently affected emerging market and developed economies such financial crisis are often accompanied with severe declines of employment that are hard to justify using a standard dynamic stochastic model in this paper i document that a labor wedge deteriorates substantially around swift reversals of current accounts or default episodes i propose and evaluate two different explanations for these movements by linking the wedges to changes in labor taxes and in the cost of working capital with these two features included a dynamic model of equilibrium default is able to replicate the behavior of the labor wedge observed in the data around financial crisis in the model higher interest rates are propagated into larger costs of hiring labor through the presence of working capital as an economy is hit with a stream of bad productivity shocks the incentives to default become stronger thus increasing the cost of debt this reduces firm demand for labor and generates a labor wedge a similar effect is obtained with a counter cyclical tax rate policy the model is used to shed light on the recent events of the euro area debt crisis and in particular of the greek default event

policy theory and the cycle the paper sets out some simple statistical models and shows that they are capable of generating the ob served characteristics of classical cycles in three countries australia the united kingdom and the united states both analytical and simulation work is used for this purpose these models emphasize the fact that to generate a realistic business cycle requires some deterministic trend growth near unit root behaviour in the deterministically detrended data and innovations of a certain magnitude with this information we examine some popular models of the cycle asking how they produce these features and then explore the implications of the analysis for economic policy

dissecting the cycle a methodological investigation following burns and mitchell we define the cycle as a pattern in the level of aggregate economic activity an algorithm to locate turning points is developed as is a new measure of pro cyclicality a link between turning points and the moments of the series is established thereby providing the statistical foundation that burns and mitchell s work lacked using these tools we are able to dissect cycles in terms of the contributions made by trend growth volatility serial correlation and non linear effects we dissect several models and find little evidence that certain non linear effects are important to the nature of business cycles

school spirit legislator school ties and state funding for higher education abstract we explore a new mechanism to understand state funding for public colleges and universities by leveraging data on the educational experiences of state legislators specifically if and where they received postsecondary education using novel hand collected data from 2002 through 2014 we provide comprehensive documentation for the first time in the literature on the educational backgrounds of state legislators we find a statistically significant positive association between the share of legislators who attended their states public institutions and state funding for their entire public higher education system we also find a similar positive relationship between the share of state legislators who attended particular campuses of the state s public university system and funding for those campuses this relationship is more pronounced among publicly educated legislators who represent legislative districts close to their alma mater s district and becomes most consequential when the legislator s district contains his or her alma mater we discuss the implications of our findings for academic studies on how politics and legislators personal experiences influence support for higher education

the growth in the social security disability rolls a fiscal crisis unfolding the u s social security disability insurance di program has grown dramatically over the last 20 years in size and expense this growth poses significant risks to the finances of the di program and the broader social security system and raises troubling questions as to whether the program is being misused by claimants this article first provides an overview of the disability insurance program describing who qualifies for the program how an individual applies for benefits and how the level of benefits is determined next we summarize the factors responsible for the growth in the di rolls and discuss how the characteristics of di recipients have changed as a result we then explore the extent of moral hazard in the di program and the effectiveness of the screening process in distinguishing meritorious from nonmeritorious claims finally we identify the challenges that the di program creates for social security finances and social security reform and discuss potential reforms to the di program

the anatomy of distributional preferences with group identity abstract the increasing diversity of societies raises questions about the consequences for redistributive preferences this paper assesses the impact of social identity on distributional preferences in a modified dictator game i estimate individual level utility functions with two parameters that govern the trade offs between equity and efficiency and giving to self and to other subjects on average put less weight on income of the out group the out group treatment also changes the distribution of equity efficiency concerns however the experiment also uncovers a large individual heterogeneity of preferences an analysis of garp violations reveals that choices in both treatments overwhelmingly stem from well behaved yet systematically different underlying utility functions hence the evidence presented here suggests that the rational choice approach is a useful tool for understanding the effect of social identity on preferences

the effects of mfa quota elimination on indian fibre markets this article examines the effects of multi fibre arrangement mfa quota elimination on indian fibre market the partial equilibrium indian fibre model was developed using a theoretically consistent framework and incorporated regional supply response substitutability between cotton and man made fibres and appropriate linkage between cotton and textile sectors baseline projections were developed for supply demand and prices of cotton man made fibres and textiles under a set of exogenous assumptions the effects of mfa textile quota eliminations were introduced into the model by conducting three scenarios i e increasing textile exports by 10 20 and 30 from the baseline level the results suggest that on an average cotton imports rise by 4 8 annually while the man made fibre exports from india decline with the opening of textile markets in the developed countries the higher domestic cotton prices encourage acreage expansion in cotton in all the three regions in india but not enough to meet risi

the provision of incentives in firms i ncentives are the essence of economics despite many wide ranging claims about their supposed importance there has been little empirical assessment of incentive provision for workers the purpose of this paper is to critically overview existing work on the provision of incentives since the interests of workers and their employers are not always aligned a large theoretical literature has emphasized how firms design compensation contracts to induce employees to operate in the firm s interest this literature has reached into many areas of compensation and has pointed to a multitude of different mechanisms that can be used to induce workers to act in the interests of their employers these include piece rates options discretionary bonuses promotions profit sharing efficiency wages deferred compensation and so on my objective here is to evaluate this literature in the light of a growing empirical literature on compensation where possible i will address the literature from two perspectives first an underlying assumption of this literature is that individuals respond to contracts that reward performance accordingly i consider whether agents behave in this way and whether these responses are always in the firm s interest second i address whether firms write contracts with these responses in mind in other words do contracts look like the predictions of the theory incentives are provided to workers

buying a home with a resale value location location location we develop a dynamic multiregion model where a household s choice of housing location depends on its current wealth and its current type and involves both consumption and investment considerations the relative strength of the consumption motive and the investment motive determines the equilibrium pattern of residential sorting a strong investment consumption motive implies sorting according to household type wealth the model predicts that large house price fluctuations are associated with a low degree of sorting by type this prediction is consistent with evidence from us metropolitan areas when income education and age are used as proxies for household type

the impact of management incentives in intergroup contests abstract in intergroup contests a manager advises and motivates her group s members her rewards often depend on the subsequent contest expenditure of the members i test whether such incentives undermine the credibility and effectiveness of a manager s efforts in the different experimental treatments the managers either benefit from very high or low expenditure or get a predetermined payment the results show that different management incentives shape the expenditure of the group members even if managers have an advisory role only however group members follow recommendations more closely if management compensation is not linked to contest expenditures

inventories and the three phases of the business cycle this article demonstrates that recessions typically are followed by high growth recovery phases that push output back to its prerecession level thus postwar fluctuations in real output in the united states have consisted of three sequential phases rather than two contractions high growth recoveries and moderate growth periods following recoveries data from before world war ii also exhibit this pattern for the postwar period the three phase pattern is shown to reflect swings in inventory investment and suggests that output fluctuations have an important transitory component the evidence in this article supports delong and summers s output gaps view and friedman s plucking model view of fluctuations

upstream downstream transactions and watershed externalities experimental evidence from kenya abstract where environmental policies or projects seek behavioral change understanding underlying norms and preferences is essential to securing environmental outcomes this study models a payment for environmental services intervention in an experimental field laboratory in nyanza province kenya upstream and downstream individuals are paired in a standard investment game in which the upstream mover s investment represents land use decisions and the downstream mover responds with a choice of compensation payment the experimental intervention introduces an enforcement treatment on the downstream movers compensation decisions for a single round underlying social preferences and identity appear to shape individual transactions between upstream and downstream individuals upstream first movers are sensitive to the removal of the enforcement on their downstream partners in the second round and make decisions consistent with crowding out of social preferences the results suggest that environmental interventions may affect resource decisions for individuals who are not themselves direct targets of enforcement

can a real business cycle model pass the watson test abstract watson 1993 measures of fit for calibrated models journal of political economy 101 6 1011 1041 proposes a procedure for evaluating the fit of a dynamic equilibrium business cycle model under watson s criterion the standard real business cycle rbc model fails dramatically in reconciling the dynamics of the model with the data this inability to account for the dynamics of us aggregate data remains a major challenge to rbc theory this paper demonstrates that reasonable modifications can bring rbc theory into closer conformity with the data the empirical results indicate that when habit formation on leisure choice and employment externality are incorporated into the analysis the striking spectral density differentials documented by watson virtually vanish at business cycle frequencies

discrimination in a deprived neighbourhood an artefactual field experiment abstract we present a field experiment designed to examine the discriminatory motives of an understudied demographic the poorest people in england subjects are first asked to divide 10 between two strangers and then play a 10 dictator game with another stranger we subtly vary the ethnicity of the receivers by providing subjects with surnames randomly drawn from the electoral register including treatments that allow us to parse behaviour into either in group favouritism or out group negativity an important behavioural distinction that is typically overlooked in the discrimination literature our results suggest that the observed discriminatory attitudes are the result of out group negativity rather than in group favouritism we advance the literature on discrimination through the estimation of a structural model of group contingent social preferences which we exploit to perform counterfactual simulations our results provide insights into the behaviour of this unique demographic and provide a rationale for why they may support discriminatory policies in their voting behaviour

comovement information production and the business cycle abstract recent theoretical research suggests that information production is a positive externality of aggregate economic activity veldkamp 2005 both the quantity and quality of information increase during periods of economic expansion and decrease during periods of contraction based on this insight we hypothesize and confirm that time varying information production drives the comovement patterns observed in stock returns we examine stock return comovement in 36 countries from 1980 to 2007 and show that consistent with the theory comovement patterns are countercyclical that is when information production is high low comovement is low high we also find that the relation between comovement and the business cycle is stronger in countries that experience large intertemporal swings in information production finally we show that the relation between business cycle and comovement is stronger in poor countries countries with less developed financial markets and countries with weaker accounting and transparency standards these results suggest that financial development and transparency are conducive to a steady flow of financial information over the business cycle

international house price cycles monetary policy and credit abstract we evaluate three alternative predictors of house price corrections anticipated tightenings of monetary policy deviations of house prices from fundamentals and rapid credit growth a new cross country measure of monetary policy expectations based on an international term structure model with time varying risk premiums is constructed house price overvaluation is estimated via an asset pricing model the variables are incorporated into a panel logit regression model that estimates the likelihood of a large house price correction in 18 oecd countries the results show that corrections are predicted by increases in the market s forecast of higher policy rates the estimated degree of house price overvaluation also contains significant information about subsequent price reversals in contrast to the financial crisis literature credit growth is less important all of these variables help forecast recessions

measuring aggregate risk can we robustly identify asset price boom bust cycles abstract we investigate the extent to which it is possible to detect asset price booms and banking crises according to alternative identification strategies and we assess their robustness we find some evidence that house price booms are more likely to turn into costly recession or to trigger a banking crisis than stock price booms resorting both to a non parametric approach and a discrete choice logit model we analyze the ability of a wide set of indicators to robustly explain costly asset price booms according to our results real long term interest rates and real stock prices tend to increase the probability of a costly housing price boom whereas real gdp tends to increase the probability of a costly stock price boom interestingly the credit to gdp gap indicator sometimes put forward in the literature as a key reference for setting countercyclical capital buffers does not seem to be a robust leading indicator of costly booms or banking crises

gender composition and group dynamics evidence from a laboratory experiment with microfinance clients we investigate the effect of gender composition on the group dynamics of microfinance clients in tanzania using a laboratory experiment we focus on three dimensions i the ability to collaborate

ethnic diversity public spending and individual support for the welfare state a review of the empirical literature we review the empirical literature that studies the effect of ethnic diversity on public spending and on individual support for the welfare state the survey puts a particular focus on the fast growing literature that uses experiments to study the effects of ethnic diversity many of these studies have appeared since the pioneering survey by alesina and la ferrara and have not been covered by a survey before

time series decomposition and measurement of business cycles trends and growth cycles abstract a study of business cycles does not require trend estimation and elimination but a study of growth cycles does major cyclical slowdowns and speedups deserve to be analyzed but the needed time series decomposition presents difficult problems mainly because trends and cycles influence each other we compare cyclical movements in levels deviations from trend and smoothed growth rates for both the quarterly real gdp and the monthly u s coincident index using the phase average trend pat then we compare alternative trend estimates deterministic and stochastic linear and nonlinear and the corresponding series of deviations from these trends we discuss how the resulting estimates differ for u s growth cycles in the post world war ii period the results of pat show great similarity to the results obtained with the hodrick prescott local linear trend band pass filtering methods

do real business cycle models really exhibit business cycle behavior abstract previous research indicates that real business cycle models are capable of reproducing important features of u s business cycle behavior here i employ classical methods of business cycle analysis to determine how well the cyclical properties of simulated data from a representative real business cycle model match up with postwar u s business cycle characteristics while the simulated model reproduces qualitative features consistent with observed business cycle experience quantitative goodness of fit tests show that for many sectors of the economy the cyclical characteristics of the simulated data deviate significantly from u s business cycle experience

money or friends social identity and deception in networks abstract strategic communication occurs in virtually all committee decision environments theory suggests that small differences in monetary incentives between committee members can leave deception a strategically optimal decision crawford and sobel 1982 galeotti et al 2013 at the same time in natural environments social incentives can also play an important role in determining the way people share or withhold truthful information unfortunately little is known about how monetary and social incentives interact to determine truth telling we investigate this issue by first building a novel model and then testing its equilibrium predictions using laboratory data in the absence of social identity the model s predictions are supported there is more truthful communication between those who share monetary incentives than those who do not we find that the effect of identity is asymmetric sharing the same identity does not promote truth telling but holding different identities reduces truthfulness overall as compared to environments lacking social identity committees with both monetary and social incentives exhibit truthful communication substantially less frequently

business cycle phases in u s states the u s aggregate business cycle is often characterized as a series of distinct recession and expansion phases we apply a regime switching model to state level coincident indices to characterize state business cycles in this way we find that states differ a great deal in the levels of growth that they experience in the two phases recession growth rates are related to industry mix whereas expansion growth rates are related to education and age composition further states differ significantly in the timing of switches between regimes indicating large differences in the extent to which state business cycle phases are in concord with those of the aggregate economy

productivity wages and intrinsic motivations there is a long standing debate in labour economics on the impact of workers intrinsic motivations on equilibrium wages one direction in economic theory suggests that intrinsically motivated workers are willing to accept lower wages and donate work for example in terms of unpaid overtime the donative labour hypothesis in the other direction intrinsic motivations are expected to increase worker productivity and in turn wages the intrinsic motivation productivity hypothesis using a new database of a sample of workers in the cooperative non profit sector we find that consistently with the motivation productivity hypothesis more motivated workers earn significantly higher wages which signals higher productivity evidence supporting the donative labour hypothesis is weaker even though a generally positive connection between motivations and work donation is confirmed we interpret these findings by arguing that the impact of the donative labour effect is dominated by the intrinsic motivation productivity effect

the synchronization of credit cycles abstract this paper proposes a simple econometric procedure to test for the synchronization of credit cycles using a century of data for 14 advanced economies we find that credit cycle synchronization dropped in the early 1920s from initially relatively high levels between the 1920s and the 1970s synchronization was overall low and concentrated within five predominantly regional clusters however synchronization has significantly increased in the post bretton woods era and has become less associated with geographic proximity australia denmark france italy japan norway spain switzerland the uk and the us form a single major credit cycle cluster since the 1970s a smaller cluster is formed by canada the netherlands and sweden while the german credit cycle follows a distinct path using logistic regressions we find that the synchronization of credit and business cycles go hand in hand our findings are especially relevant for the international coordination of macroprudential policy as well as to spur and inform further analysis on credit cycle dynamics

a new approach to the study of jobless recoveries this article is concerned with the measurement of jobless recoveries and the elements that may explain their emergence we first introduce a measure that maps the various elements that define a jobless recovery into a single number that we label the jobless recovery depth we then construct a database of 389 state level observations and study the cross sectional variations that emerge we find that jobless recoveries in the united states are not a nation wide phenomena but a local event confined within a cluster of states that expands slowly between 1975 and 2015 we find the state level evidence to be consistent with theories that link jobless recoveries to unusually long expansionary periods less dynamic labor markets and the advent of the great moderation the evidence is not consistent with theories that link them to decreases in union power increases in income inequality or increases in health care costs

whose money is it anyway ingroups and distributive behavior abstract price theory is often used to explain reactions to rebates and subsidies that are meant to encourage charitable giving this paper describes the results of a laboratory experiment that tests standard price theory alongside an alternative perspective based on research on the perceptions and behavior of ingroups using a modified dictator game we find that rebates that decrease the price of giving only increase amounts given when they are exogenously funded by the experimenters when rebates are funded by members of one s group the decreased price of giving does not lead to increased amounts given the result suggests that the presence of an ingroup mentality can mediate the relationship between giving and price

global factors uncertainty weather conditions and energy prices on the drivers of the duration of commodity price cycle phases abstract we investigate the role of global factors in explaining the length of commodity price cycle phases using a continuous time weibull duration model and data for a panel of 33 countries over the period 1980q1 2015q4 we find evidence of increasing constant positive duration dependence for commodity price booms and busts normal time spells global macroeconomic conditions in particular inflation economic policy uncertainty and monetary policy actions significantly affect the duration of all commodity price cycle phases global environmental conditions also impact the duration of commodity price booms with a rise in average temperature rainfall increasing reducing their length a rise in the number of military conflicts around the globe is associated with shorter booms and busts finally we find that a rise in oil prices is linked with longer booms and shorter busts

can non linear time series models generate us business cycle asymmetric shape abstract fifteen univariate non linear time series models of us output are evaluated by their ability to reproduce the asymmetric shape of the us business cycle two models account for the growth being faster after a trough and slower before a peak

the structure of inequality and the politics of redistribution against the current consensus among comparative political economists we argue that inequality matters for redistributive politics in advanced capitalist societies but it is the structure of inequality not the level of inequality that matters our theory posits that middle income voters will be inclined to ally with low income voters and support redistributive policies when the distance between the middle and the poor is small relative to the distance between the middle and the rich we test this proposition with data from 15 to 18 advanced democracies and find that both redistribution and nonelderly social spending increase as the dispersion of earnings in the upper half of the distribution increases relative to the dispersion of earnings in the lower half of the distribution in addition we present survey evidence on preferences for redistribution among middle income voters that is consistent with our theory and regression results indicating that the left parties are more likely to participate in government when the structure of inequality is characterized by skew

an experimental study on the relevance and scope of nationality as a coordination device in a period marked by extensive cross national interactions nationality may present an important focal point that individuals coordinate on this study uses an experimental approach to study whether nationality serves as a coordination device we let subjects from japan korea and china play coordination games in which we vary information about their partner the results show that nationality serves as a coordination device if common nationality is the only piece of information available to the subjects the strength of this device is nationality dependent and diminishes when participants are provided with additional information about their partner we also find that subjects are likely to coordinate on the pareto dominant equilibrium at about the same rate if the partner has a different nationality than if nationality is unknown jel c91 c92 z1 z13

internal conflict market uniformity and transparency in price competition between teams abstract the way profits are divided within successful teams imposes different degrees of internal conflict we experimentally examine how the level of internal conflict and whether such conflict is transparent to other teams affects teams ability to compete vis a vis each other and consequently market outcomes participants took part in a repeated bertrand duopoly game between three player teams which had either the same or different levels of internal conflict uniform vs mixed profit division was either private pay high conflict each member received her own asking price or equal pay low conflict profits were divided equally we find that internal conflict leads to tacit coordination on high prices in uniform private pay duopolies but places private pay teams at a competitive disadvantage in mixed duopolies competition is softened by transparency in uniform markets but intensified in mixed markets we propose an explanation of the results and discuss implications for managers and policy makers d43 l22 c92

an information diffusion based model of oil futures price abstract inspired by the increasing evidence of financialization speculation in commodity pricing this paper constitutes a first attempt to build an information diffusion based asset pricing framework for the oil futures market with gradual information dissemination slowly decaying uncertainty about the asset s future fundamentals generates persistent conditional volatility and a drift in asset return volatility based proxies for information flows are proposed to examine empirically the asset pricing implications the results confirm a significant intertemporal relationship between return on the price of oil futures information diffusion and volatility components an important implication of our study is that the slow diffusion of information generates predictability in price dynamics a forecasting model is then constructed and tested in relation to our theory it is found that the lagged series of the pricing factors possess significant predicting power for returns

the cleansing effect of recessions the authors investigate industry response to cyclical variations in demand production units that embody the newest process and product innovations are continuously being created and outdated units are being destroyed although outdated units are the most likely to turn unprofitable and be scrapped in a recession they can be insulated from the fall in demand by a reduction in creation the structure of adjustment costs plays a determinant role in the responsiveness of those two margins the calibrated model matches the relative volatilities of the observed manufacturing job creation and destruction series and their asymmetries over the cycle copyright 1994 by american economic association

does detrending matter for the determination of the reference cycle and the selection of turning points we examine the sensitivity of turning points classification to detrending and compare the implied cycles to those derived by nber or doc researchers two dating rules are considered turning point dates are broadly insensitive to detrending with one dating rule but not the other and many procedures generate false alarms and miss several common turning points with the latter one amplitude and duration properties are also sensitive detrending and dating rules the hodrick and prescott and a frequency domain filters are best in mimicing nber and doc cycles regardless of the dating rule used

real business cycles and the test of the adelmans abstract this paper conducts a modern variant of the test proposed and carried out by adelman and adelman 1959 using the methods developed by burns and mitchell 1946 we see if we can distinguish between the economic series generated by an actual economy and those analogous artificial series generated by a stochastically perturbed economic model in the case of the adelmans the model corresponded to the klein goldberger equations in our case the model corresponds to a simple real business cycle model the results indicate a fairly high degree of coincidence in key economic aggregates between the business cycle characteristics identified in actual data and those found in our simulated economy