to float or to fix evidence on the impact of exchange rate regimes on growth we study the relationship between exchange rate regimes and economic growth for a sample of 183 countries over the post bretton woods period using a new de facto classification of regimes based on the actual behavior of the relevant macroeconomic variables in contrast with previous studies we find that for developing countries less flexible exchange rate regimes are associated with slower growth as well as with greater output volatility for industrial countries regimes do not appear to have any significant impact on growth the results are robust to endogeneity corrections and a number of alternative specifications borrowed from the growth literature

central bank transparency and cross border banking abstract we analyze the effect of central bank transparency on cross border bank activities based on a panel gravity model for cross border bank claims for 21 home and 47 destination countries from 1998 to 2010 we find strong empirical evidence that a rise in central bank transparency in the destination country on average increases cross border claims using interaction models we find that the positive effect of central bank transparency on cross border claims is only significant if the central bank is politically independent and operates in a stable economic environment central bank transparency and credibility are thus considered complements by banks investing abroad

the impact of high tech capital on productivity evidence from australia i introduction the bulk of the empirical research on the relationship between high tech capital investment and productivity has been based on data for the united states given the relatively large size of the high tech capital sector in the u s economy it is likely that the united states is a special case most economies resemble australia s in being net importers of high tech capital not producing high tech capital was often cited as a weakness in these economies relative to the united states however since the end of the late 1990s tech boom there has been a reappraisal of whether the production or the use of high tech capital is most beneficial hence to shed light on this debate the main purpose of this paper is to empirically examine the relationship between high tech capital use and the multifactor productivity mfp of 10 industries in the australian market sector using annual data for 1966 2002 alternative specifications of production functions are considered and estimated alternative measures of high tech capital are included with combinations of computers software and electronics capital in the first production function high tech capital is allowed to be more or less productive than other capital to determine whether there is a relationship between high tech capital and mfp it is also possible to test whether there are excess returns to high tech capital for robustness testing purposes a second production function is specified with high tech capital as a separate input into production other potential sources of mfp growth such as public capital research and development stocks and microeconomic reform are also included in the production functions we find evidence of a positive relationship between high tech capital and mfp in the market sector there is less evidence however of excess returns to high tech capital which suggests that current investment levels are not inadequate the results by industry suggest that the benefits of investing in high tech capital are not distributed evenly across the economy with only some industries experiencing a positive relationship between high tech capital and mfp the structure of this article is as follows in section ii the theoretical contribution of high tech capital to mfp and the evidence to date is reviewed in section iii the methodology is outlined in section iv data sources and trends are described in section v the results are presented and interpreted and section vi concludes ii the impact of high tech capital on output and productivity the theory and evidence the impact of investment in high tech capital has been the subject of debate between new economy sceptics and optimists for several years it is widely accepted that mfp has increased substantially in u s high tech producing industries in which the rate of technological change has been phenomenal over the past 40 years several publications have found a quantifiable contribution by computer producing industries to u s output growth 1 however australia is not generally regarded as a producer of computers data from the organisation for economic co operation and development oecd 1998 indicate that the high tech share of australian manufacturing value added was 4 5 in 1995 compared to 15 8 in the united states therefore the substantial u s economy wide mfp improvements specifically associated with its computer producing industry are unlikely to be replicated in the australian economy over the past 30 years there has been rapid accumulation of high tech capital in many countries australia was the third most intensive user of high tech capital in the oecd in 1995 behind the united states and new zealand simon and wardrop 2002 find that this rapid accumulation of high tech capital may have substantially contributed to australia s economic growth during the 1990s this accumulation has been driven by technological change in high tech producing industries lowering the price of high tech capital

vickrey dutch procurement auction for multiple items we consider a setting where there is a manufacturer who wants to procure multiple items from a set of suppliers each of whom can supply one or more of these items bundles we design an ascending price auction for such a setting which implements the vickrey clarke groves outcome and truthful bidding is an ex post nash equilibrium our auction maintains non linear and non anonymous prices throughout the auction this auction has a simple price adjustment step and is easy to implement in practice as offshoots of this auction we also suggest other simple auctions in which truthful bidding is not an equilibrium by suppliers which may be suitable where incentives to suppliers are not a big concern computer simulations of our auction show that it is scalable for the multi unit case and has better information revelation properties than its descending auction counterpart

a markov switching analysis of contagion in the ems abstract this paper applies the multivariate version of the forbes and rigobon 2002 contagion test as proposed by dungey et al 2005a to detect contagion effects in the exchange rate mechanism erm of the european monetary system ems crisis and non crisis observations are determined endogenously via a markov switching vector autoregression msvar we show that the msvar is suitable for this purpose as it does particularly well in identifying the 11 realignments of the erm we examine whether denmark s rejection of the maastricht treaty and italy s competitiveness problems affected other ems participants and find evidence for contagion

ascending price vickrey auctions abstract we show that an ascending price auction for multiple units of a homogeneous object proposed by ausubel i raises prices for packages until they reach those nonlinear and non anonymous market clearing prices at which bidders get their marginal products and ii the auction is a primal dual algorithm applied to an appropriate linear programming formulation in which the dual solution yields those same market clearing prices we emphasize the similarities with efficient incentive compatible ascending price auctions to implement vickrey payments when there is a single object or when objects are heterogeneous but each buyer does not desire more than one unit a potential benefit of these common threads is that it helps to establish the principles upon which vickrey payments may be implemented through decentralized incentive compatible procedures

transitions at different moments in time a spatial probit approach this paper adopts a spatial probit approach to explain interaction effects among cross sectional units when the dependent variable takes the form of a binary response variable and transitions from state 0 to 1 occur at different moments in time the model has two spatially lagged variables one for units that are still in state 0 and one for units that had already transferred to state 1 the parameters are estimated on observations for those units that are still in state 0 at the start of the different time periods whereas observations on units after they transferred to state 1 are discarded just as in the literature on duration modeling furthermore neighboring units that had not yet transferred may have a different impact from units that had already transferred we illustrate our approach with an empirical study of the adoption of inflation targeting for a sample of 58 countries over the period 1985 2008 copyright 2016 john wiley sons ltd

global liquidity transmission to emerging market economies and their policy responses abstract this paper analyzes the transmission of global liquidity gl from advanced economies aes to emerging market economies emes we distill gl momenta from the macro financial data of aes through a factor model and identify them with sign restrictions as policy driven market driven and risk averseness factors using a panel factor augmented var analysis we then investigate eme responses to shocks to gl momenta a positive shock to policy driven liquidity boosts growth in emes elevating stock prices and currency values while a shock to risk averseness has a largely opposite effect a market driven gl expansion boosts stock markets and lowers funding costs increasing competitiveness and current account balance inflation targeting emes are found to fare better than emes under alternative regimes in terms of macro financial volatility

on ascending vickrey auctions for heterogeneous objects abstract we construct an ascending auction for heterogeneous objects by applying a primal dual algorithm to a linear program that represents the efficient allocation problem for this setting the auction assigns personalized prices to bundles and asks bidders to report their preferred bundles in each round a bidder s prices are increased when he belongs to a minimally undersupplied set of bidders this concept generalizes the notion of overdemanded sets of objects introduced by demange gale and sotomayor for the one to one assignment problem under a submodularity condition the auction implements the vickrey clarke groves outcome we show that this type of condition is somewhat necessary to do so when classifying the ascending auction literature in terms of their underlying algorithms our auction fills a gap in that literature we relate our results to various ascending auctions in the literature

specification of functional form and the estimation of technical progress the use of the translog functional form to estimate technical progress may result in misleading conclusions alternative analytic functional forms in the demand system approach to measuring technical progress are compared empirically specifically translog normalized quadratic and leontief functional forms are used in combination with linear representations of the time trend variable in the respective demand systems comparisons are made with the fisher quantity index approach to measuring technical progress there is some indication that curvature violations by the translog model can lead to misleading results suggesting a preference for even the inflexible leontief model data for new zealand was used as there is much interest in the relative decline in per capita income since the 1950s and the effects on productivity of the economic reforms of the 1980s using data for the period 1960 1989 it was found that productivity growth has been low over the sample

inflation target and a symmetries in the oil price pass through to inflation in this paper we employ state space models to estimate the pass through of oil price changes to consumer prices for a large sample of countries from 1970 to 2017 by controlling for self selection bias and endogeneity and allowing for different responses to positive and negative price changes we asses the differences between explicit inflation targeting it countries and a control group surprisingly perhaps our results suggest that the pass through is higher for it countries our main contribution is to show that these is mainly due to it countries having a significant higher pass through than non it countries when the oil price decreases a 10 drop in oil price leads about a 0 11 drop in inflation in iters of which 4pp are explained by the monetary regime importantly we show that adopting it reduces the asymmetry of the pass through we run several robustness checks and conclude that falling oil prices are more welcomed by the central banks with an it framework in particular during deflationary episodes or when inflation is above the target jel classification e31 e42 q43

the effect of central bank transparency on exchange rate volatility abstract the increase in central bank transparency has been one of the main developments in central banking in the past two decades this leads to the question of the effect of central bank transparency on the volatility of exchange rates according to theoretical considerations more information could lead to either more precise forecasts or more noise trading this raises the need for an empirical estimation of the relationship the present study shows that the effect of central bank transparency on exchange rate volatility depends on a country s development while there is no effect of central bank transparency in the full sample and for developing countries transparency increases exchange rate fluctuations in developed countries

the real effects of capital controls firm level evidence from a policy experiment abstract this paper evaluates the effects of capital controls on firm level stock returns and real investment using data from brazil on average there is a statistically significant drop in cumulative abnormal returns consistent with an increase in the cost of capital for brazilian firms following capital control announcements large firms and the largest exporting firms appear less negatively affected compared to external finance dependent firms and capital controls on equity inflows have a more negative announcement effect on equity returns than those on debt inflows overall the findings have implications for macro finance models that abstract from heterogeneity at the firm level to examine the optimality of capital control taxation

the modern history of exchange rate arrangements a reinterpretation we develop a novel system of reclassifying historical exchange rate regimes one key difference between our study and previous classifications is that we employ monthly data on market determined parallel exchange rates going back to 1946 for 153 countries our approach differs from the imf official classification which we show to be only a little better than random it also differs radically from all previous attempts at historical reclassification our classification points to a rethinking of economic performance under alternative exchange rate regimes indeed the breakup of bretton woods had less impact on exchange rate regimes than is popularly believed

what drives international financial flows politics institutions and other determinants abstract this paper uses a large panel of financial flow data from banks to assess how institutions affect international lending first employing a time varying composite institutional quality index in a fixed effects framework the paper shows that institutional improvements are followed by significant increases in international finance second cross sectional models also show a strong effect of initial levels of institutional quality on future bank lending third instrumental variable estimates further show that the historically predetermined component of institutional development is also a significant correlate of international bank inflows the results thus suggest that institutional underdeveloped can explain a significant part of lucas lucas robert e 1990 why doesn t capital flow from rich to poor countries american economic review papers and proceedings 80 2 92 96 1990 paradox of why doesn t capital flow from rich to poor countries the analysis also does a first step towards understanding which institutional features affect international banking

currency matters analyzing international bond portfolios abstract bonds denominated in the investor s currency are special we show this indirectly in a global dataset of bilateral bond holdings indirectly because the global holdings dataset does not differentiate by currency denomination and then more directly in datasets of us holdings of foreign bonds that do differentiate by currency we find that the share of a country s bonds denominated in investors currencies is an important determinant of the amount of cross border investment it receives factors associated with greater or less cross border investment in bonds differ by currency denomination and one phenomenon of international portfolios the ever present home bias in some cases actually disappears when bonds are denominated in the investor s currency suggesting that the home bias is to some extent a home currency bias

what to target inflation or exchange rate author affiliation shu lin shulin75 gmail comhaichun ye haichunye gmail com acknowledgment the authors would like to thank kent kimbrough and two anonymous referees for valuable comments 1 introductionone of the most important recent innovations in the conduct of monetary policy is inflation targeting in which a monetary authority makes public an estimated inflation rate or range and attempts to steer the actual inflation toward the target using monetary tools since its emergence in the early 1990s inflation targeting has certainly been gaining popularity over the last two decades by the end of 2006 27 countries among which 17 are developing countries had explicitly adopted this new monetary policy regime the emergence of inflation targeting has attracted substantial attention from both researchers and policymakers numerous studies have empirically evaluated the effects of adopting an explicit inflation targeting regime on a country s economic performance especially on inflation and growth while studies focusing on advanced industrial countries so far have yielded mixed results the evidence in developing countries seems to be more robust 1 batini kuttner and laxton 2005 goncalves and salles 2008 and lin and ye 2009 all find that inflation targeting significantly lowers inflation in developing countries where the credibility of the central bank has not yet been well established thus the credibility gain of adopting an explicit inflation targeting regime is substantial in addition capistran and ramos francia 2010 show that inflation targeting significantly lowers the dispersion of inflation expectations in developing countries two recent survey articles walsh 2009 and ball 2010 also concluded that inflation targeting has larger beneficial effects in developing countries than those in advanced industrial countries despite the success of inflation targeting in developing countries the more traditional exchange rate targeting framework still remains the dominant monetary policy regime in developing countries it is so popular that an influential study by calvo and reinhart 2002 finds an epidemic case of fear of floating in the developing world 2 furthermore similar to inflation targeting an exchange rate targeting regime especially a credibly enforced one is also viewed as an effective means to achieve price stability in developing countries because it serves as a nominal anchor by allowing a developing central bank to borrow credibility from a foreign monetary authority in a strict exchange rate targeting framework the targeting country s inflation rate should be equal to that of the country usually a low inflation rich country to which its exchange rate is pegged does an inflation targeting framework outperform an exchange rate targeting regime in achieving price stability in developing countries if so does this benefit come at a cost of slower growth these two important and policy related questions have not yet been examined in the literature a common feature of previous studies is that they all compare an inflation targeting regime with a very broad alternative namely a non inflation targeting regime while ignoring the substantial heterogeneity in the monetary policy regimes adopted by non inflation targeting countries a disadvantage of comparing inflation targeting with such a broad alternative is that the results may not be of direct use for policy choices the objective of this study therefore is to make the first attempt in the literature to conduct a direct empirical comparison of the emerging inflation targeting framework with the popular exchange rate targeting regime in developing countries in particular we compare the effects of these two monetary policy regimes on two key outcome variables inflation and economic growth our study is built upon three recent empirical works on the effects of inflation targeting in developing countries including batini kuttner and laxton 2005 goncalves and salles 2008 and lin and ye 2009 but we focus on directly comparing inflation targeting with exchange rate targeting

a pragmatic approach to capital account liberalization in the mid 1990s mainstream economists of nearly all stripes commonly recommended capital account liberalization that is allowing a free flow of funds in and out of a country s economy as an essential step in the process of economic development but then came the east asian financial crisis of 1997 98 in which even seemingly healthy and well managed economies like those of south korea were engulfed by massive capital outflows and tremendous currency volatility and capital account liberalization became quite controversial in the economics profession a decade later now that time has quelled passions and intervening research can shed more light on the debate it appears that both the costs and benefits of capital account liberalization may have been misunderstood in that earlier debate now it appears that the main benefits of capital account liberalization for emerging markets are indirect more related to their role in building other institutions than to the increased financing provided by capital inflows and these indirect benefits are important enough that countries should look for creative approaches to capital account liberalization that would help attain these benefits while reducing the risks countries don t have much choice but to plan for capital account liberalization because capital accounts are de facto becoming more open over time whatever governments may do to try to control them

computers and productivity are aggregation effects important this paper examines the empirical implications of aggregation bias when measuring the productive impact of computers to isolate two specific aggregation problems relating to aggregation in variables and aggregation in relations we compare various production function estimates across a range of specifications econometric estimators and data levels the results show that both sources of bias are important especially as one moves from the sector to the economy level and when the elasticity of all types of non computer capital are incorrectly restricted to be equal in terms of computers however the estimated elasticity is surprisingly stable between industry and sector regressions and does not appear to be biased by the incorporation of a restrictive measure of non computer capital the data consistently show that computers have a large impact on output

information technology and its impact on productivity firm level evidence from government and private data sources 1977 1993 robert solow s quip that we see computers everywhere but in the productivity statistics has prompted a large and growing literature examining the information productivity paradox some aggregate and industry level studies have failed to detect a positive contribution to productivity growth from investments in computer technology more recent studies utilizing firm level data however have detected a significant contribution this paper confirms the results of these latter studies using u s firm level computer asset and financial data for nonagricultural firms during the period 1977 1993 from a variety of data sources including the u s census bureau s enterprise and auxiliary establishment surveys compustat and computer intelligence infocorp a market research firm our principal finding that computers especially personal computers do contribute positively to productivity growth suggests that the traditional information productivity paradox is largely a measurement problemn this is closely related to the more general problem of assessing service sector productivity because computers are used most intensively in the service sector and in the service functions of non service sector firms e g payroll and purchasing as zvi griliches 1994 noted these activities pose the greatest problems for output and productivity measurement moreover although we may see computers everywhere they represent only a tiny fraction of capital stock on about 2 of plant property and equipment so aggregate effects may be hard to detect oliner and sichel 1993 our data indicate that computers not only contributed to productivity growth during the period 1977 1993 but they yielded excess returns relative to other types of capital the data also suggest that computer productivity peaked around 1986 1987 3 that computers are complementary with skilled labour krueger 1993 and autor katz and krueger 1997 and that use of computers may permit reductions in inventory levels finally and perhaps most interesting the evidence

information technology and growth the rapid diffusion of information technology it is a direct consequence of the swift decline in the price of computer related equipment which has led to a vast and continuing substitution of it equipment for other forms of capital and labor this substitution generates substantial returns for the economic agents who undertake it investments and restructure their activities in order to increase the role of it there is little evidence however that substitution is accompanied by technical change as this term is used by economists while this appears highly paradoxical to technologists who think of substitution of a more it intensive mode of production for a less itintensive mode as a change in technology it is entirely consistent with the economic framework developed by robert m solow 1957 what do economists mean by technical change and how could this exclude the substitution of a more it intensive production process for one that is less it intensive substitution represents movement along a given production function while technical change corresponds to a shift in the production function substitution takes place if the introduction of computer intensive equipment produces benefits that are fully captured or internalized by the users of it and their suppliers technical change occurs only if more

foreign currency debt risk premia and macroeconomic volatility abstract this paper studies the relationships between foreign currency debt macroeconomic volatility and risk premia in a model of a small open emerging market economy the external value of the local currency is counter cyclical so that foreign currency debt requires larger repayments than local currency debt in bad states of nature the level of foreign currency denominated debts therefore affects the volatility of aggregate demand and by extension of the exchange rate exchange rate volatility is in turn an important determinant of the risk premium on local currency debt finally this risk premium is a major factor in the choice of local versus foreign currency for emerging market borrowers the mutual endogeneity of foreign currency debt risk premia and macroeconomic volatility creates important feedback effects in the economy small increases in international risk aversion may entail large amplification effects on macroeconomic volatility since domestic borrowers substitute towards cheaper but riskier foreign currency debt finance

inflation targeting as a shock absorber abstract we study the characteristics of inflation targeting as a shock absorber using quarterly data for a large panel of countries to overcome an endogeneity problem between monetary regimes and the likelihood of crises we propose to study large natural disasters we find that inflation targeting improves macroeconomic performance following such exogenous shocks it lowers inflation raises output growth and reduces inflation variability compared to alternative monetary regimes this performance is mostly due to a different response of monetary policy and fiscal policy under inflation targeting finally we show that only hard but not soft targeting reaps the rewards deeds not words matter for successful monetary stabilization

the substitution of information technology for other factors of production a firm level analysis fueled by its constant technological and price improvements information technology it is displacing other inputs in the production of goods and services by 1994 it accounts for over 15 of fixed investments by the u s private sector and the ratio of new it investments to labor costs is approaching 5 1990 dollar basis the ability to take advantage of improvements in it is determined in part by the substitutability of it for other factors of production this paper builds on the empirical framework of brynjolfsson and hitt brynjolfsson e l hitt 1995 information technology as a factor of production the role of differences among firms econom innovations and new tech 3 183 199 and extends it to jointly estimate output and substitution elasticities using the ces translog production function our primary source of it related data is the idg computerworld annual survey data on is spending by large u s firms for the period 1988 to 1992 previously analyzed by brynjolfsson and hitt brynjolfsson e l hitt 1995 information technology as a factor of production the role of differences among firms econom innovations and new tech 3 183 199 brynjolfsson e l hitt 1996 paradox lost firm level evidence on the returns to information systems spending management sci 424 541 558 and lichtenberg lichtenberg f r 1995 the output contributions of computer equipment and personnel a firm level analysis econom innovations and new tech 3 201 217 a key result is that it capital is a net substitute for both ordinary capital and labor suggesting that the factor share of it in production will grow to more significant levels over time we confirm earlier findings of positive returns to it investment for this data set further we find excess returns on it investment relative to labor input and some evidence of excess returns relative to ordinary capital taken together these results shed new light on the productivity paradox of it and on the growth of information intensity across the economy as firms take advantage of the continuing improvements in it

the solow productivity paradox what do computers do to productivity 1 you don t see computers everywhere in a meaningful economic sense computers and information processing equipment are a relatively small share of gdp and of the capital stock 2 you only thinkyou see computers everywhere government hedonic price indexes for computers fall too fast according to this position and therefore measured real computer output growth is also too fast 3 you may not see computers everywhere but in the industrial sectors where you most see them output is poorly measured examples are finance and insurance which are heavy users of information technology and where even the concept of output is poorly specified 4 whether or not you see computers everywhere some of what they do is not counted in economic statistics examples are consumption on the job convenience better user interface and so forth 5 you don t see computers in the productivity statistics yet but wait a bit and you will this is the analogy with the diffusion of electricity the idea that the productivity implications of a new technology are only visible witlh a long lag 6 you see computers everywhere but in the productivity statistics because computers are not as productive as you think here there are many anecdotes such as failed computer system design projects but there are also assertions from computer science that computer and software design has taken a wrong turn 7 there is no paradox some economists are counting innovations and new products on an arithmetic scale when they should count on a logarithmic scale

regulating capital flows to emerging markets an externality view abstract we show that capital flows to emerging market economies create externalities that differ by an order of magnitude depending on the state contingent payoff profile of the flows those with pro cyclical payoffs such as foreign currency debt generate substantial negative pecuniary externalities because they lead to large repayments and contractionary exchange rate depreciations during financial crises conversely capital flows with an insurance component such as fdi or equity are largely benign we construct an externality pricing kernel and use sufficient statistics and dsge model simulations to quantify the externalities that materialized during past financial crises we find stark differences depending on the payoff profile justifying taxes of up to 3 for dollar debt but close to zero for fdi these findings contrast with the existing literature which has suggested that policymakers should focus on reducing over borrowing rather than changing the composition of external liabilities

flexible inflation targets forex interventions and exchange rate volatility in emerging countries abstract emerging economies with inflation targets it face a dilemma between fulfilling the theoretical conditions of strict it which imply a fully flexible exchange rate or applying a flexible it which entails a de facto managed floating exchange rate with foreign exchange forex interventions to moderate exchange rate volatility using a panel data model for 37 countries we find that although it lead to higher exchange rate instability than alternative regimes forex interventions in some it countries have been more effective to lower volatility than in non it countries which may justify the use of flexible it by policymakers

global implications of self oriented national monetary rules author s obstfeld maurice rogoff kenneth abstract it is well known that if international linkages are relatively small the potential gains to international monetary policy coordination are typically quite limited but what if goods and financial markets are tightly linked is it then problematic if countries unilaterally design their institutions for monetary stabilization are the stabilization gains from having separate currencies largely squandered in the absence of effective international monetary coordination we argue that under plausible assumptions the answer is no unless risk aversion is very high lack of coordination in rule setting is a second order problem compared to the overall gains from monetary policy stabilization

inflation targeting fiscal rules and the policy mix cross effects and interactions we examine how inflation targeting it and fiscal rules fr affect inflation and fiscal performance in a large panel of countries during 1990 2009 in line with theory both fr and it appear to shape monetary and fiscal outcomes significant cross effects seem to exist as it strengthens fiscal performance whereas the combination of fr and it tends to be associated with more disciplined macroeconomic policies than if only one of these institutions operates our findings suggest that it and fr affect the coordination of the policy mix and point to potential benefits of reforming macroeconomic frameworks in a holistic fashion

thresholds in the process of international financial integration abstract the financial crisis has re ignited the fierce debate about the merits of financial globalization and its implications for growth especially for developing countries the empirical literature has not been able to conclusively establish the presumed growth benefits of financial integration indeed a new literature proposes that the indirect benefits of financial integration may be more important than the traditional financing channel emphasized in previous analyses a major complication however is that there seem to be certain threshold levels of financial and institutional development that an economy needs to attain before it can derive the indirect benefits and reduce the risks of financial openness in this paper we develop a unified empirical framework for characterizing such threshold conditions we find that there are clearly identifiable thresholds in variables such as financial depth and institutional quality the cost benefit trade off from financial openness improves significantly once these threshold conditions are satisfied we also find that the thresholds are lower for foreign direct investment and portfolio equity liabilities compared to those for debt liabilities

computers productivity and input substitution i introduction the last two decades has been a puzzling time for many productivity analysts while computer prices fell at extraordinary rates and firms invested hundreds of billions of dollars in new computer equipment aggregate productivity growth remained sluggish this computer productivity paradox has generated a large literature that examines the economic impact of the computer revolution 1 this paper offers a simple solution to the computer productivity paradox by making careful distinction between computers as an output from one sector and an input to other sectors data for 35 manufacturing and service sectors for 1947 1991 show that sectoral differences are crucial in understanding the impact of computers aggregate analysis is inappropriate since it obscures basic distinctions between a shifting production function in the computer producing sector multi factor productivity growth and movements along production functions in the computer using sectors substitution and capital accumulation once these differences are isolated the growth impact of computers is readily observable the computer producing sector experienced fundamental technological progress and now produces cheaper better computers the sectoral data show this as rapid multi factor productivity mfp growth for 1973 1991 although aggregate mfp growth remains below historic averages the computer producing sector has clearly done its part mfp growth in this sector is many times the economy average and has contributed over one third of aggregate mfp growth for 19811991 the sectoral detail shows that the slowdown in aggregate productivity would have been much more severe were it not for such large mfp gains in the computer producing sector for the other sectors of the economy computers affect growth in a more traditional although less glamorous way when the price of real computing power fell so dramatically in the 1970s and 1980s firms responded by substituting away from relatively expensive labor and non computer capital and investing heavily in cheap computers for these sectors the computer revolution affects output growth not by raising mfp but by inducing firms to accumulate computers at extraordinary rates real computer services for example grew in excess of 20 per year in 14 out of 35 sectors for 1973 1991 although virtually all sectors are rapidly accumulating computer equipment computers remain small in levels in 1991 for example computer investment was only 10 of private fixed investment so the growth contribution of computers remains small relative to sectoral aggregates of labor and non computer capital the rapid rates of accumulation however are clearly making computers a more important source of growth across sectors with this heavy investment also came the wide spread expectation that computers would fundamentally alter the way firms operate and lead to higher mfp the reality has been very different as the most computer intensive sectors show steep declines in mfp growth after 1973 with three quarters of all computers concentrated in three service sectors trade fire and other services however this finding must be interpreted with caution as griliches 1994 notes output in these sectors is largely unmeasurable and thus mfp growth will be understated nonetheless it is quite reasonable that even computer using sectors where output is easier to measure show no mfp gains computer investment creates a capital input that enters the production function like any other purchased input since constant quality deflators embody productivity improvements in investment the direct impact is seen through the rapid capital accumulation only if the adoption of computers leads to production externalities or spillovers would computer investment also increase mfp growth the data however show no evidence of this ii computers and growth the national statistics most clearly show the computer revolution in the investment data

inflation targeting a new framework for monetary policy he world s central bankers and their staffs meet regularly in venues from basle to washington to share ideas and discuss common problems perhaps these frequent meetings help explain why changes in the tactics and strategy of monetary policymaking such as the adoption of money growth targets in the 1970s the intensification of efforts to reduce inflation in the 1980s and the recent push for increased institutional independence for central banks tend to occur in many countries more or less simultaneously whatever their source major changes in the theory and practice of central banking are of great importance for both individual countries and the international economy in this article we discuss a new strategy for monetary policy known as inflation targeting which has sparked much interest and debate among central bankers and monetary economists in recent years this approach is characterized as the name suggests by the announcement of official target ranges for the inflation rate at one or more horizons and by explicit acknowledgment that low and stable inflation is the overriding goal of monetary policy other important features of inflation targeting include increased communication with the public about the plans and objectives of the monetary policymakers and in many cases increased accountability of the central bank

inflation targeting should it be modeled as an instrument rule or a targeting rule abstract the paper discusses how current inflation targeting should be modeled and argues that it is better represented as a commitment to a targeting rule a rule specifying operational objectives for monetary policy or a condition for the target variables than as a commitment to a simple instrument rule like a taylor rule

what makes a currency procyclical an empirical investigation this paper looks at the correlation between the cyclical components of gross domestic product and the exchange rate and classifies countries currencies as procyclical if they appreciate in good times countercyclical if they appreciate in bad times and acyclical otherwise with this classification the paper shows that i the countries that are commodity exporters and experience procyclical capital flows tend to have procyclical currencies ii countries with procyclical currencies tend to restrict their capital accounts perhaps as an attempt to reduce the degree of procyclicality iii countries with procyclical currencies pursue procyclical monetary policy iv however in the last decade there is a disconnect between the cyclicality of currency and monetary policy and v the disconnect may reflect a decline in the fear of floating which can be partially attributed to an improvement in countries net foreign asset positions

does inflation targeting make a difference in developing countries we evaluate the treatment effect of inflation targeting in thirteen developing countries that have adopted this policy by the end of 2004 using a variety of propensity score matching methods we show that on average inflation targeting has large and significant effects on lowering both inflation and inflation variability in these thirteen countries however the effectiveness of inflation targeting on lowering inflation is found to be quite heterogeneous the performance of a given inflation targeting regime can be affected by country characteristics such as government s fiscal position central bank s desire to limit the movements of exchange rate its willingness to meet the preconditions of policy adoption and the time length since the policy adoption

the dynamics of exchange rate regimes fixes floats and flips the impermanence of fixed exchange rates has become a stylized fact in international finance the combination of the mirage view that pegs do not really peg with the fear of floating view that floats do not really float generates the conclusion that exchange rate regimes are in practice unimportant for the behavior of the exchange rate this is consistent with evidence on the irrelevance of exchange rate regimes for general macroeconomic performance recent studies however show that the exchange rate regime matters this can be understood by considering the dynamics of exchange rate regimes we demonstrate that the mirage view is somewhat misleading and incomplete pegs frequently break but many do last also there is a high degree of flipping that is the re formation of pegs that have broken thus a fixed exchange rate today is a good predictor that one will exist in the future we also investigate the quantitative effect of fixed exchange rates while the fear of floating view suggests little actual difference in fixed and floating rates with respect to exchange rate volatility we show that fixed exchange rates exhibit considerably greater bilateral exchange rate stability than flexible rates both today and in the future 2007 elsevier b v all rights reserved

fear of appreciation abstract in recent years the term fear of floating has been used to describe exchange rate regimes that while officially flexible in practice intervene heavily to avoid sudden or large depreciations however the data reveals that in most cases and increasingly so in the 2000s intervention has been aimed at limiting appreciations rather than depreciations often motivated by the neo mercantilist view of a depreciated real exchange rate as protection for domestic industries as a first step to address the broader question of whether this view delivers on its promise we examine whether this fear of appreciation has a positive impact on growth performance in developing economies we show that depreciated exchange rates indeed lead to higher growth but that the effect rather than through import substitution or export booms as argued by the mercantilist view works largely through the deepening of domestic savings and capital accumulation

poverty human development and growth an emerging consensus this paper considers several issues relevant to the debate on the extent to which poverty or development progress in general should be measured by income or by a broader set of objectives issues covered here are practical implications of the two approaches for poverty reduction efforts the impact of growth on basic social indicators and how national achievement on social indicators is best measured sri lanka and pakistan countries often cited in this debate are used as examples

models for iterative multiattribute procurement auctions multiattribute auctions extend traditional auction settings to allow negotiation over nonprice attributes such as weight color and terms of delivery in addition to price and promise to improve market efficiency in markets with configurable goods this paper provides an iterative auction design for an important special case of the multiattribute allocation problem with special preferential independent additive structure on the buyer value and seller costs auction additive discrete provides a refined design for a price based auction in which the price feedback decomposes to an additive part with a price for each attribute and an aggregate part that appears as a price discount for each supplier in addition this design also has excellent information revelation properties that are validated through computational experiments the auction terminates with an outcome of a modified vickrey clarke groves mechanism this paper also develops auction nonlinear discrete for the more general nonlinear case a particularly simple design that solves the general multiattribute allocation problem but requires that the auctioneer maintains prices on bundles of attribute levels

inflation targeting and the forward bias puzzle in emerging countries abstract based on quarterly data on 31 emerging countries among which 16 are inflation targeting countries from 1990q1 to 2014q3 we obtain a strong support for the conjecture that the implementation of inflation targeting weakens the fisherian relation between expected depreciation and the interest rate differential uncovered interest parity condition and thus is conducive to the appearance of the forward bias puzzle in emerging countries we show that this reflects the performance of inflation targeting regimes in lowering the level and volatility of inflation our finding holds when controlling for country specific effects time specific effects global disinflation exchange rate management crises and using different econometric techniques

the role of inflation targeting in international debt denomination in developing countries abstract this paper analyzes the inflation targeting experience of developing countries as an effective monetary policy framework to promote changes in the currency composition of their international debt using matching with difference in differences to address the self selection bias we find that inflation targeting has led to a 3 6 percentage point reduction in the foreign currency share of international debt in targeting countries when compared to non targeting countries with the effect especially pronounced for sovereign international debt differentiating by type of owner we find a reduction of the foreign currency share in foreign held total sovereign debt but no effect on domestic held debt furthermore from the analysis of the us dollar and euro shares we find that inflation targeting has contributed to a 9 percentage points lower dollar share in international debt in targeting countries compared to non targeting countries while the effect on the euro share is negligible this not only provides evidence that the structural features of international financial markets matter but also that monetary policy can help developing countries reduce their reliance on foreign currency debt especially if it is held by foreign investors

rethinking the effects of financial globalization during the last few decades many emerging markets lifted restrictions on cross border nan cial transactions in this paper we present a simple model that can account for the observed eects of nancial globalization the model emphasizes the role of imperfect enforcement of domestic debts and the interactions between domestic and foreign debts financial globaliza tion can lead to a variety of outcomes i domestic capital ight and ambiguous eects on net capital ows investment and growth ii capital in ows and higher investment and growth or iii volatile capital ows and unstable domestic nancial markets the model shows how the eects of nancial globalization depend on the level of development productivity domestic

information technology and productivity evidence from country level data this paper studies a key driver of the demand for the products and services of the global it industry returns from it investments we estimate an intercountry production function relating it and non it inputs to gdp output on panel data from 36 countries over the 1985 1993 period we find significant differences between developed and developing countries with respect to their structure of returns from capital investments for the developed countries in the sample returns from it capital investments are estimated to be positive and significant while returns from non it capital investments are not commensurate with relative factor shares the situation is reversed for the developing countries subsample where returns from non it capital are quite substantial but those from it capital investments are not statistically significant we estimate output growth contributions of it and non it capital and discuss the contrasting policy implications for capital investment by developed and developing economies

real exchange rate volatility and economic openness theory and evidence this paper relates the volatility of the trade weighted effective real exchange rate to the degree of trade openness of an economy the theoretical part presents an intertemporal monetary model of a small open economy with nominal rigidities both monetary and aggregate supply shocks are shown to produce ceteris paribus smaller real exchange rate movements if the country is more open to foreign trade empirical evidence on a cross section of forty eight countries confirms this relationship differences in trade openness explain a large part of the cross country variation in the volatility of the effective real exchange rate

does inflation targeting improve fiscal discipline abstract we explore the performances of inflation targeting it adoption in terms of fiscal discipline fd while most existing studies focus exclusively on the role of fd as a precondition for it adoption using a sample of developing and developed countries we show that it adoption exerts a positive and significant effect on fd a result robust to a wide variety of alternative specifications in addition this effect is statistically significant only in developing countries a result that may fuel the current debate regarding the relevance of it adoption in general and particularly for developing countries

multi item vickrey dutch auctions descending price auctions are adopted for goods that must be sold quickly and in private values environments for instance in flower fish and tobacco auctions in this paper we introduce ex post efficient descending auctions for two environments multiple non identical items and buyers with unit demand valuations and multiple identical items and buyers with non increasing marginal values our auctions are designed using the notion of universal competitive equilibrium uce prices and they terminate with uce prices from which the vickrey payments can be determined for the unit demand setting our auction maintains linear and anonymous prices for the homogeneous items setting our auction maintains a single price and adopts ausubel s notion of clinching to compute the final payments dynamically the auctions support truthful bidding in an ex post nash equilibrium and terminate with an ex post efficient allocation in simulation we illustrate the speed and elicitation advantages of these auctions over their ascending price counterparts

inflation targeting and inflation performance a comparative analysis this article examines how the impact of inflation targeting on inflation performance depends on the choice of country samples adoption dates time periods and methodological approaches we apply two different estimation methods difference in differences and propensity score matching for our sample of 25 advanced and 59 emerging and developing countries over the period 1985 to 2011 our findings suggest that distinguishing countries by economic development is crucial as no effect of inflation targeting is found for advanced economies whereas the results suggest a significant negative effect of inflation targeting on inflation in emerging and developing countries the results are robust to the methodology used for the analysis

on the international effects of inflation targeting abstract this study empirically examines the international effects of inflation targeting employing a variety of propensity score matching methods we find strong evidence that inflation targeting has significantly different impacts on exchange rate volatility and international reserves in different country groups it significantly increases real and nominal exchange rate stability and international reserves in developing countries but lowers them in industrial countries on average inflation targeting increases lowers reserves roughly by the size of 1 3 1 8 months of imports values in developing industrial countries the treatment effects on targeting countries current accounts are found to be insignificant in both country groups

emerging local currency bond markets in this article the authors assess local currency bond markets in emerging market economies emes supported by policies and laws that helped improve macroeconomic stability and creditor rights local currency eme bond markets have grown substantially over the past decade and have provided usd based investors with attractive returns u s investors have responded by sharply increasing their holdings of eme local currency bonds especially in emes with investor friendly institutions and policies

payoffs from investment in information technology lessons from the asia pacific region abstract this paper examines the factors influencing investment in information technology it and the payoffs from investment in it use on productivity and economic growth in 12 asia pacific countries for 1984 1990 it finds a significant positive correlation between growth in it investment and growth in both gdp and productivity over the seven year period countries with higher growth rates in it investment achieved consistently higher growth rates of gdp and productivity this finding is consistent with the notion of it led development it challenges the so called productivity paradox or the notion that investment in it has not paid off in productivity improvements

central bank transparency and the volatility of exchange rates abstract we analyze the effect of monetary policy transparency on bilateral exchange rate volatility we test the theoretical predictions of a stylized model using panel data for 62 currencies from 1998 to 2010 we find strong evidence that an increase in the availability of information about monetary policy objectives decreases exchange rate volatility using interaction models we find that this effect is more pronounced for countries with a lower flexibility of goods prices a lower level of central bank conservatism and a higher interest rate sensitivity of money demand

the role of the exchange rate in monetary policy rules for a country that chooses not to permanently fix its exchange rate through a currency board or a common currency or some kind of dollarization the only alternative monetary policy that can work well in the long run is one based on the trinity of i a flexible exchange rate ii an inflation target and iii a monetary policy rule while not often put into this threepart format the desirability of such a monetary policy in an open economy is in my view the clear implication of three corresponding strands of recent monetary research i research on fixed exchange rates regimes including the influential 1995 article the mirage of fixed exchange rates by maurice obstfeld and kenneth rogoff and the many analyses of the breakdown of fixed exchange rate regimes in the late 1990 s ii research on the practical success with inflation targeting by ben bernanke et al 1999 and iii research on the benefits of simple monetary policy rules see e g taylor 1999a this clear policy implication however does not end the debate about how exchange rates should be taken into account in formulating monetary policy even if one excludes capital controls and sterilized exchange market intervention from consideration because they are not effective or attractive ways to de link exchangerate movements from the domestic interest rate a crucial question remains how should the instruments of monetary policy the interest rate or a monetary aggregate react to the exchange rate should policymakers avoid any reaction and focus instead on domestic indicators such as inflation and real gdp or is the rule of thumb that a substantial appreciation of the real exchange rate furnishes a prima facie case for relaxing monetary policy as characterized by obstfeld and rogoff 1995 p 93 a better monetary policy rule or perhaps policymakers should heed the obstfeld rogoff warning that substantial departures from ppp purchasing power parity in the short run and even over decades make such a policy reaction to the exchange rate undesirable more generally if one accepts the trinity concept of monetary policy in an open economy then what is the role of the exchange rate in the monetarypolicy rule

the new economy in europe 1992 2001 despite the fast catching up in ict diffusion experienced by most eu countries in the last few years information technologies have so far delivered little productivity gains in europe in the second half of the past decade growth contributions from ict capital rose in six eu countries only the uk denmark finland sweden ireland and greece quite unlike the united states this has not generally been associated to higher labour or total factor productivity growth rates the only exceptions being ireland and greece particularly worrisome the large countries in continental europe germany france italy and spain showed stagnating or mildly declining growth contributions from ict capital together with definite declines in tfp growth compared to the first half of the 1990s it looks like that the celebrated solow paradox on the lack of correlation between ict investment and productivity growth has fled the us to migrate to europe

the decoupling of emerging economies theoretical and empirical puzzle with the growing importance of the emerging economies ees in the international scene a lively debate has begun on whether the national economic cycles are converging or the cycles of ees and advanced economies aes are becoming disconnected the so called hypothesis of decoupling of ees from the aes given the important practical implications that decoupling could have for example on the definition of national and international economic policies and on business strategies aimed at investment diversification and risk management the question kindles not only the interest of academics but also policymakers and practitioners are very interested in the issue the decoupling question has been long debated in different circles and from different points of view this survey aims to retrace the steps of this debate and to provide some suggestions for future empirical researches

ict and productivity growth in the united kingdom this paper develops new estimates of investment in and output of information and communication technology ict these new estimates imply that gdp growth has been significantly understated particularly since 1994 a growth accounting approach is employed to measure the contribution of ict to the growth of both aggregate output and aggregate input on both counts the contribution of ict has been rising over time from 1989 to 1998 ict output contributed a fifth of overall gdp growth since 1989 55 per cent of capital deepening the growth of capital per hour worked has been contributed by ict capital since 1994 this proportion has risen to 90 per cent ict capital deepening accounts for 25 per cent of the growth of labour productivity over 1989 98 and 48 per cent over 1994 8 but even when output growth is adjusted for the new ict estimates both labour productivity and tfp growth are still found to slow down after 1994

designing targeting rules for international monetary policy cooperation this study analyzes a two country dynamic general equilibrium model with nominal rigidities monopolistic competition and producer currency pricing a quadratic approximation to the utility of the consumers is derived and assumed as the policy objective function of the policymakers it is shown that only under special conditions there are no gains from cooperation and moreover that the paths of the exchange rate and prices in the constrained efficient solution depend on the kind of disturbance that affects the economy it might be the case either for fixed or floating exchange rates despite this result simple targeting rules that involve only targets for the growth of output and for both domestic gdp and cpi inflation rates can replicate the cooperative allocation

ascending price vickrey auctions for general valuations ascending price auctions typically involve a single price path with buyers paying their final bid price using this traditional definition no ascending price auction can achieve the vickrey clarke groves vcg outcome for general private valuations in the combinatorial auction setting we relax this definition by allowing discounts to buyers from the final price of the auction or alternatively calculating the discounts dynamically during the auction while still maintaining a single price path using a notion called universal competitive equilibrium prices shown to be necessary and sufficient to achieve the vcg outcome using ascending price auctions we define a broad class of ascending price combinatorial auctions in which truthful bidding by buyers is an ex post nash equilibrium any auction in this class achieves the vcg outcome and ex post efficiency for general valuations we define two specific auctions in this class by generalizing two known auctions in the literature 11 24

does the exchange rate regime make a difference in inflation performance in developing and emerging countries the role of inflation targeting abstract we apply propensity score matching estimators with multiple outcomes to evaluate the impacts of exchange rate regimes fixed intermediate and flexible without inflation targeting and inflation targeting on inflation rates in emerging and developing countries an inflation targeting regime does better than or at least as good work as a fixed regime in lowering inflation rates when compared with intermediate or flexible regimes we do not observe a clear difference in inflation rates between fixed and inflation targeting regimes in recent years 2000 2007 intermediate and flexible regimes provide higher inflation than fixed or inflation targeting regimes in most cases

welfare analysis of currency regimes with defaultable debts abstract we modify the cole and kehoe model by including domestic debt according to the original model a speculative attack on a high debt level issued abroad triggers external debt default here it is possible to inflate away the domestic debt to avoid the external debt default we consider two possibilities for domestic debt denomination i local currency and ii common currency in the second case inflation depends on a monetary union decision our numerical results show that to have a debt share denominated in a common currency is optimal when the refinancing risks are highly correlated across union members otherwise the best is to keep the domestic debt denominated in local currency finally the extreme case of having all debt issued abroad and denominated in a foreign currency is suitable when under alternative regimes suboptimal inflation motivated by political factors is likely although the paper was originally developed for emerging market economies it sheds some light on the recent eurozone crisis

risky public domestic debt composition in emerging economies abstract this paper explains why public domestic debt composition in emerging economies can be risky namely in foreign currency with a short maturity or indexed it analyses empirically the determinants of these risk sources separately developing a new large dataset compiled from national sources for 33 emerging economies over 1994 2006 the paper finds that economic size the breadth of the domestic investor base inflation and fiscal soundness are all associated with risky public domestic debt compositions yet to an extent that varies considerably in terms of magnitude and significance across sources of risk only inflation impacts all types of risky debt underscoring the overarching importance of monetary credibility to make domestic debt compositions in emerging economies safer given local bond markets rapid development monitoring risky public domestic debt compositions in emerging economies becomes increasingly relevant to global financial stability

growth technological change and ict diffusion recent evidence from oecd countries in this paper we present an overview of gdp and productivity growth patterns in oecd countries over the past decade on the basis of harmonized data our evidence suggests that fast growing countries generally shared three characteristics improvements in labour utilization a generalized enhancement in human capital and rapid shifts in the composition of physical capital towards information and communication technology ict equipment particularly we show that technological change embodied in new ict capital goods has been a primary source of output and productivity growth in ict using sectors the international comparison allows relating growth patterns to institutional and policy indicators thereby offering some preliminary insights into the potential sources of growth disparities cross country evidence yields some tentative support to the idea that institutional factors affecting competition in the product market are likely to affect productivity patterns especially in a period of rapid diffusion of a general purpose technology such as ict copyright 2002 oxford university press

is inflation targeting a good remedy to control inflation abstract since the 1990s inflation targeting it has been adopted by several central banks as a strategy for monetary policy it is expected that the adoption of this monetary regime can reduce inflation and inflation volatility this article is concerned with these issues and makes use of the propensity score matching methodology on a sample of 180 countries for the period from 1990 to 2007 for analysis the sample is split into two sets of countries advanced and developing the findings suggest that the adoption of it is an ideal monetary regime for developing economies and in addition to reducing inflation volatility can drive inflation down to internationally acceptable levels regarding advanced economies the adoption of it does not appear to represent an advantageous strategy in brief the empirical results indicate that the adoption of it is useful for countries that must enhance their credibility for the management of monetary policy

does the new economy measure up to the great inventions of the past abstract during the four years 1995 99 u s productivity growth experienced a strong revival and achieved growth rates exceeding that of the golden age of 1913 72 accordingly many observers have declared the new economy to be an industrial revolution even more important than the second industrial revolution of 1860 1900 which made the golden age of productivity growth possible this paper dissects the recent productivity revival subtracts out a cyclical component and concludes that there is no revival of the productivity growth trend in the 88 percent of the private economy lying outside of the durables manufacturing sector the paper explains this surprising finding by pointing to limitations in computers and the internet in comparison with the great inventions of the past

a stable international monetary system emerges inflation targeting is bretton woods reversed a stable international monetary system has emerged since the early 1990s a large number of industrial and a growing number of developing countries now have domestic inflation targets administered by independent and transparent central banks these countries place few restrictions on capital mobility and allow their exchange rates to float the domestic focus of monetary policy in these countries does not have any obvious international cost inflation targeters have lower exchange rate volatility and less frequent sudden stops of capital flows than similar countries that do not target inflation inflation targeting countries also do not have current accounts or international reserves that look different from other countries this system was not planned and does not rely on international coordination there is no role for a center country the imf or gold it is durable in contrast to other monetary regimes no country has been forced to abandon an inflation targeting regime succinctly it is the diametric opposite of the post war system bretton woods reversed

surprising similarities recent monetary regimes of small economies in contrast to earlier recessions the monetary regimes of many small economies have not changed in the aftermath of the global financial crisis this is due in part to the fact that many small economies continue to use hard exchange rate fixes a reasonably durable regime however most of the new stability is due to countries that float with an inflation target though a few have left to join the eurozone no country has yet abandoned an inflation targeting regime under duress inflation targeting now represents a serious alternative to a hard exchange rate fix for small economies seeking monetary stability are there important differences between the economic outcomes of the two stable regimes i examine a panel of annual data from more than 170 countries from 2007 through 2012 and find that the macroeconomic and financial consequences of regime choice are surprisingly small consistent with the literature business cycles capital flows and other phenomena for hard fixers have been similar to those for inflation targeters during the global financial crisis and its aftermath

analyzing online b2b exchange markets asymmetric cost and incomplete information this research applies the discriminating auction to analyze the online b2b exchange market in which a single buyer requests multiple items and several suppliers having equal capacity and asymmetric cost submit bids to compete for buyer demand in the present model we examine the impact of asymmetric cost and incomplete information on the participants in the market given the complete cost information each supplier randomizes its price and the lower bound of the price range is determined by the highest marginal cost in addition the supplier with a lower marginal cost has a larger considered pricing space but ultimately has a smaller equilibrium one than others with higher marginal costs when each supplier s marginal cost is private information the lowest possible price is determined by the number of suppliers and the buyer s reservation price comparing these two market settings we find whether it is beneficial to buyers or suppliers depends on the scale of the bid process and the highest marginal cost when the number of suppliers and the difference between the highest marginal cost and the buyer s reservation price are sufficiently large each supplier can gain a higher profit if the marginal costs are private information on the contrary when the highest marginal cost approaches the buyer s reservation price complete cost information benefits the suppliers

on the impossibility of central bank independence four decades of time and intellectual inconsistency the intellectual justification for modern central banking time inconsistency celebrated its fortieth anniversary in 2017 alongside the cambridge journal of economics however the key progeny of the time inconsistency literature central bank independence has fundamental flaws that have been thus far neglected in mainstream research in the first instance the argument for independence relies on a utilitarian rather than institutional analysis one that neglects the genesis of central banks and their relation to other institutions within a country second central bank independence neglects the complex interdependencies of the global monetary and financial system applying an institutional lens to the concept of central bank independence i conclude that independence fails under the reality of globalization as much as it does in a domestic context with central banks reliant on all manner of political institutions they are never really independent operationally or in terms of policy

the solow residual for australia technology shocks or factor utilization i introduction in macroeconomics a standard way of measuring technology shocks is to use the solow residual solow 1957 however a growing body of evidence suggests the solow residual is at best a noisy measure of technology shocks a number of hypotheses have been advanced as to why this might be the case these include the existence of imperfect competition and increasing returns to scale hall 1988 1990 spillover externalities caballero and lyons 1992 and variations in factor utilization rates basu 1995 burnside 1996 burnside et at 1993 1995a b burnside and eichenbaum 1994 and finn 1995 recent work by basu 1995 and burnside et al 1995a using data for united states u s manufacturing industries suggests that changes in capital utilization are the most likely cause of the mis measurement of technology by the solow residual this paper presents an econometric analysis of the behavior of the solow residual for the australian economy 1 the preliminary analysis examines whether the solow residual for australia can be characterized as a strictly exogenous variable following evans 1992 i test whether the solow residual is grangercaused by a number of other macroeconomic variables including foreign prices and production government spending interest rates and a monetary aggregate fluctuations in such variables are frequently proposed as sources of business cycles in small open economies consistent with results obtained for the u s by evans i find that the solow residual for australia is not a strictly exogenous variable however while evans finds money supply growth and government spending granger cause the u s solow residual neither of these variables is a significant predictor in the australian case for australia the terms of trade and a measure of the term spread have the strongest predictive content for the solow residual what these results indicate is that the standard measure of the solow residual for australia is affected by shocks other than pure technological innovations in an attempt to quantify the contribution of other non technology shocks to fluctuations in the solow residual for australia i employ the structural vector autoregression svar methodology developed by shapiro and watson 1988 blanchard and quah 1989 and cochrane 1994 it is assumed that the measured solow residual is affected by two types of mutually uncorrelated shocks one of these has a permanent effect on the level of the solow residual and the other has only a temporary effect to identify these two disturbances i use information from a second variable capacity utilization where this choice is influenced by the recent work of burnside and eichenbaum 1994 and burnside et al 1995b neither of the two shocks affecting the solow residual has a permanent effect on the level of capacity utilization the shock which has a permanent effect on the solow residual is identified with a true technology disturbance while the other shock is assumed to reflect aggregate demand disturbances the remainder of this paper is organized as follows in section ii a measure of the solow residual for australia is constructed and its predictability examined section iii contains a discussion of the svar model used to analyze the solow residual and capacity utilization the empirical results from this model are presented in section iv section v considers the robustness of the results and section vi concludes ii properties of the solow residual in macroeconomics a standard means of computing the logarithm of the solow residual a sub 1 is to use the following equation 1 a sub t y sub t s sub n n sub t 1 s sub n k sub t where y is the log of aggregate output n is the log of total hours worked k is the log of the aggregate capital stock and s sub n is labour s share of national income assumed to be constant

capital controls and monetary policy in sudden stop economies abstract the dangers of high capital flow volatility and sudden stops have led economists to promote the use of capital controls as an addition to monetary policy in emerging market economies this paper studies the benefits of capital controls and monetary policy in a small open economy with financial frictions nominal rigidities and sudden stops without commitment the optimal monetary policy should sharply diverge from price stability the policymakers will also tax capital inflows in a crisis but such taxes may be welfare reducing with commitment capital controls involve a mix of current capital inflow taxes and future capital flow subsidies the optimal policy will never involve macro prudential capital inflow taxes or a departure from price stability whether or not commitment is available

legislative budget cycles recent literature suggests that electoral budget cycles are a phenomenon of new rather than established democracies what part of the democratization process explains the amelioration of the political budget cycle we argue the answer lies in part in the development of a strong party system we extend the classic rogoff siebert model to show that political budget cycles are possible in a legislative context with rational voters we then demonstrate that the development of a strong party system can restrain political budget cycles in a majoritarian electoral system finally we follow prior work in using vote share volatility as a measure of the institutionalization of the party system using newly collected vote share data for 433 elections for 90 democracies from 1980 2007 we calculate a measure of party institutionalization we then use this data to demonstrate that institutionalized party systems are associated with mitigated political budget cycles especially in majoritarian electoral systems

the effect of inflation targeting and financial openness on currency composition of sovereign international debt abstract this paper analyzes the joint effect of inflation targeting and capital account openness in promoting changes to the currency composition of sovereign international debt in developing countries first using difference in differences in combination with entropy balancing we offer empirical evidence that the adoption of inflation targeting together with high capital account openness can significantly reduce the reliance on foreign currency denominated sovereign international debt we find that financially integrated inflation targeting countries have 11 percentage points lower foreign currency shares in their sovereign debt compared to non targeting countries second we determine the threshold level of financial openness that countries need to attain before they see the full benefits of inflation targeting third the joint effect of inflation targeting and capital account openness significantly increases three years after the policy implementation our results are robust to alternative specifications which include instrumental variables to account for the endogeneity of the policy

nominal sovereign debt i show that reputation alone can sustain nominal sovereign debt which is subject to both the risks of default and opportunistic devaluations nominal debt combined with a countercyclical exchange rate policy allows more hedging against shocks than real savings if markets are incomplete thus the loss of either repayment or monetary reputation severely affects the government s ability to smooth consumption the model offers a simple explanation for the bulow and rogoff critique while simultaneously helping explain the issuance of nominal sovereign bonds by emerging economies the model also helps explain why many governments borrow and save at the same time

an efficient ascending bid auction for multiple objects when bidders exhibit multi unit demands standard auction methods generally yield inefficient outcomes this article proposes a new ascending bid auction for homogeneous goods such as treasury bills or telecommunications spectrum the auctioneer announces a price and bidders respond with quantities items are awarded at the current price whenever they are clinched and the price is incremented until the market clears with private values this dynamic auction yields the same outcome as the sealed bid vickrey auction but has advantages of simplicity and privacy preservation with interdependent values this auction may retain efficiency whereas the vickrey auction suffers from a generalized winner s curse

inflation targeting and output inflation tradeoffs abstract this article assesses whether the adoption of inflation targeting it helps reduce the output inflation tradeoff we address the self selection problem of it policy adoption by the endogenous switching regressions and show that the output inflation tradeoffs are significantly lower in it countries not only over the whole sample but also across the developed and developing country subsamples in addition we also find strong evidence supporting the positive selection hypothesis i e countries have higher probability of adopting it are exactly those who benefit more larger reduction of output inflation tradeoff from the implementation of it additional results reveal that economies with higher trade openness lower financial openness and less flexible exchange rate regime are associated with larger tradeoff between output and inflation but the effects are only statistically significant in the it regime

inflation targeting genuine effects or publication selection bias abstract this paper uses a meta regression analysis mra to evaluate the impact of publication selection bias as for the macroeconomic effects of inflation targeting it a popular approach to implementing monetary policy documented in the existing literature using 8 059 point estimates from 113 studies we show that a significant part of the documented positive effects of it on inflation and to some extent output growth volatility is in fact due to publication selection bias in particular results pointing to lower inflation volatility and higher real gdp growth tend to be favored by researchers as well as those pointing to statistically significant macroeconomic effects however even after controlling for these two types of biases we find it to be correlated with lower inflation and higher real gdp growth differently the evidence on the it inflation volatility relationship is found to be less clear

re evaluating the effectiveness of inflation targeting abstract this paper estimates the treatment effect of inflation targeting on macroeconomic variables using a semiparametric single index method by taking into account the model misspecification of parametric propensity scores our study uses a broader set of preconditions for inflation targeting and macroeconomic outcome variables than the existing literature the results suggest no significant difference in the inflation level and inflation volatility between targeters and non targeters after the adoption of inflation targeting we find that inflation targeting reduces sacrifice ratio and interest rate volatility in the developed economies and that it enhances fiscal discipline in both the industrial and developing countries

multi item auctions a collection of items is to be distributed among several bidders and each bidder is to receive at most one item assuming that the bidders place some monetary value on each of the items it has been shown that there is a unique vector of equilibrium prices that is optimal in a suitable sense for the bidders in this paper we describe two dynamic auction mechanisms one achieves this equilibrium and the other approximates it to any desired degree of accuracy

transitions to inflation targeting panel evidence from panel estimates of an extended version of the taylor rule reaction function that adds lagged inflation output gaps and exchange rates we confirm that inflation is more central to the setting

computing productivity firm level evidence we explore the effect of computerization on productivity and output growth using data from 527 large us firms over 1987 1994 we find that computerization makes a contribution to measured productivity and output growth in the short term using one year differences that is consistent with normal returns to computer investments however the productivity and output contributions associated with computerization are up to five times greater over long periods using five to seven year differences the results suggest that the observed contribution of computerization is accompanied by relatively large and time consuming investments in complementary inputs such as organizational capital that may be omitted in conventional calculations of productivity the large long run contribution of computers and their associated complements that we uncover may partially explain the subsequent investment surge in computers in the late 1990s