assessing the performance of renewable electricity support instruments abstract the performance of feed in tariffs and tradable certificates is assessed on criteria of efficacy efficiency equity and institutional feasibility in the early stage of transition to an energy system based entirely on renewable energy supplies renewable electricity can only thrive if support takes into account the specific technical economic and political problems which result from embedding this electricity in conventional power systems whose technology organizational structure environmental responsibility and general mission differ profoundly from the emerging renewable based system support schemes need to capture the diversity of power supplies the variable nature of some renewable supplies and their different attributes for the purposes of public policy they must take into account the variety of generators including small decentralized generation emerging in a renewable based system and the new relationships between generators and customers renewable energy policies need a clear point of reference because the incumbent power systems are not sustainable they must adapt to the requirements of the renewable ones not the other way round incumbent systems carry the responsibility of paying the transition something that corresponds best with the polluter pays principle

gender norms in financial markets evidence from kenya abstract the role of institutions rules and norms in markets is increasingly recognized in development discourse this paper considers the role of gender relations for rules and norms in financial markets using evidence from central kenya it develops a framework for establishing the influence of gender on the demand for and access to financial services so explaining the gender differentiated use of rotating savings and credit associations roscas it first analyzes intrahousehold norms related to income and expenditure flows and their management so identifying gendered patterns of demand second by conceptualizing financial intermediaries as operating within rules and norms it allows the influence of gender relations on access to financial services to be more systematically investigated

optimism pessimism and financial bubbles this paper shows that it is possible to extend the scope of the existence of rational bubbles when uncertainty is introduced associated with rank dependent expected utility this rdu assumption can be viewed as a transformation of probabilities depending on the pessimism optimism of the agent the results show that pessimism favors the existence of deterministic bubbles when optimism may promote the existence of stochastic bubbles moreover under pessimism the rdu assumption may generate multiple bubbly equilibria the rdu assumption also leads to new conditions ensuring the absence of pareto optimality of the competitive equilibrium without bubbles these conditions still govern the existence of bubbles

germany s solar cell promotion dark clouds on the horizon abstract this article demonstrates that the large feed in tariffs currently guaranteed for solar electricity in germany constitute a subsidization regime that threatens to reach a level comparable to that of german hard coal production a notoriously outstanding example of misguided political intervention yet as a consequence of the coexistence of the german renewable energy sources act eeg and the eu emissions trading scheme ets the increased use of renewable energy technologies does not imply any additional emission reductions beyond those already achieved by ets alone similarly disappointing is the net employment balance which is likely to be negative if one takes into account the opportunity cost of this form of solar photovoltaic pv support along the lines of the international energy agency iea 2007 energy policies of iea countries germany 2007 review international energy agency oecd paris p 77 we recommend the immediate and drastic reduction of the magnitude of the feed in tariffs granted for solar based electricity ultimately producing electricity on this basis is among the most expensive greenhouse gas abatement options

an empirical investigation of rationing constraints in rural credit markets in india abstract the literature on rural credit markets has generally assumed that households are rationed in their access to subsidized formal credit the validity of this assumption depends on the level of effective demand for formal credit in turn a function of the demand for credit and its availability from informal sources this paper estimates the demand and the sector specific costs of credit and hence the extent of formal sector rationing through an analysis of household participation in both the formal and the informal credit sectors the results show that the extent of rationing is considerably less than what is conventionally assumed

cautious risk takers investor preferences and demand for active management actively managed mutual funds have distinct return distributions from their passive benchmarks and our theoretical analysis using tail sensitive risk preferences suggests that active value and growth funds may serve to reduce downside risk and capture upside potential respectively furthermore tail sensitivity measures estimated from the empirical pricing kernel have significant explanatory power for active fund flows even after controlling for business cycles and market wide sentiment finally active funds unlike their passive counterparts have exposures to option strategies hedging downside risk or capturing upside potential

the cost of empowerment multiple sources of women s debt in rural india abstractpoor women borrow from multiple sources this study examines whether the source of debt matters for women s role in household financial decisions drawing on a household survey from rural tamil nadu we categorise women s loans along the lines of accessibility and formality into planned loans and instant loans we find that instant loans support women s bargaining power in various types of household financial decisions whereas planned loans have no impact this surprising result is better understood when the nature of instant loans is examined these are frequently usurious involve coercive enforcement methods and are considered socially debasing hence women who use them perform a convenient role for their households and in return gain some negotiating power

security justice and the energy crossroads assessing the implications of the nuclear phase out in germany abstract the nuclear melt down in fukushima resulted in diverging energy policy decisions across the world where germany decided to opt out of nuclear electricity production yet the government s decision making framework for energy policy decisions does not accurately reflect important drivers for the strategy change this paper presents the energy crossroads framework as a more comprehensive tool to analyse the drivers and impacts of the nuclear phase out 20 expert interviews were performed across business participants as well as policy makers in the national and international energy context results show that germany has adopted an environmental justice rather than energy security stance in their nuclear phase out policy with significant long term consequences

bargaining and boldness abstract we study a multiperson bargaining problem with general risk preferences through the use of shaked s game of cycling offers with exogenous breakdown if preferences are smooth then as the risk of breakdown vanishes the limiting outcome is one in which bargainers are equally marginally bold where a bargainer s marginal boldness measures his willingness to risk disagreement in return for a marginal improvement in his position under smoothness any ordinal nash solution is an equally marginally bold outcome however unlike the concept of the ordinal nash solution a unique equally marginally bold outcome exists in natural cases in particular if all bargainers have risk averse preferences of the rank dependent expected utility type for these preferences the equally marginally bold outcome maximizes a bargaining power adjusted asymmetric nash product where the degree of asymmetry is determined by the disparity in the marginal valuation of certainty among bargainers journal of economic literature classification numbers c72 c78 d81

nuclear renaissance public perception and design criteria an exploratory review abstract there is currently an international drive to build new nuclear power plants bringing about what is being termed a nuclear renaissance however the public perception of nuclear energy has historically been and continues to be a key issue particularly in light of the fukushima nuclear incident this paper discusses the disparity between perceived and calculated risks based on the last four decades of research into risk perception the leading psychological and sociological theories psychometric paradigm and cultural theory respectively are critically reviewed the authors then argue that a new nuclear build policy that promotes a broader approach to design incorporating a wider range of stakeholder inputs including that of the lay public may provide a means for reducing the perceived risk of a nuclear plant further research towards such a new approach to design is proposed based on integrating expert and lay stakeholder inputs and taking into account broader socio cultural factors whilst maintaining the necessary emphasis on safety technological development economics and environmental sustainability

why institutional credit agencies are reluctant to lend to the rural poor a theoretical analysis of the indian rural credit market abstract this paper examines why institutional credit facilities remain unable to extend credit to the rural poor analysis indicates that poor peasants at best can offer an entitlement set as a mortgage comprised only of future shares of their harvest which itself is subject to risk consequently lenders can not advance loans without risking extensive loss of loanable funds as the landlords income is subject to the same risk as that of peasants they advance loans to ensure that their own income is not affected by the peasants financial situation an extension of institutional credit to peasants results only in subsidization of landlords

imperfect substitutes the local political economy of informal finance and microfinance in rural china and india abstract banking authorities in both china and india have attempted to limit most forms of informal finance by regulating them banning them and allowing certain types of microfinance institutions the latter policy aims to increase the availability of credit to low income entrepreneurs and eliminate their reliance on usurious financing nonetheless the intended clients of microfinance continue to draw on informal finance in both rural china and india this article argues that the persistence of informal finance may be traced to four complementary reasons the limited supply of formal credit limits in state capacity to implement its policies the political and economic segmentation of local markets and the institutional weaknesses of many microfinance programs

financial access and exclusion in kenya and uganda abstract policy emphasis has recently shifted to finance for all given evidence that financial sector development contributes to growth but effects on poverty do not arise from pro poor provision we argue that given this policy goal analyses of barriers to access must be country specific and go beyond the emphasis on transactions costs to incorporate the effects of social institutions since these contribute to discrimination this paper uses data from financial access surveys carried out in 2006 in kenya and uganda to investigate the socio economic demographic and geographical factors influencing access to and exclusion from formal semi formal and informal financial services

the probability premium a graphical representation we illustrate that pratt s probability premium can be given a simple graphical representation allowing a direct comparison to the equivalent but more prevalent concept of risk premium under expected utility we also show that the probability premium s graphical representation under the dual theory mimics that of the risk premium under expected utility

a theory of subjective compound lotteries abstract we develop a savage type model of choice under uncertainty in which agents identify uncertain prospects with subjective compound lotteries our theory permits issue preference that is agents may not be indifferent among gambles that yield the same probability distribution if they depend on different issues hence we establish subjective foundations for the anscombe aumann framework and other models with two different types of probabilities we define second order risk as risk that resolves in the first stage of the compound lottery and show that uncertainty aversion implies aversion to second order risk which implies issue preference and behavior consistent with the ellsberg paradox

cumulative prospect theory option returns and the variance premium the variance premium and the pricing of out of the money otm equity index options are major challenges to standard asset pricing models we develop a tractable equilibrium model with cumulative prospect theory cpt preferences that can overcome both challenges the key insight is that the variance premium can be written as the expected return on a portfolio of otm call and put options and the probability weighting feature of cpt can explain the puzzlingly low returns observed for these options using gmm on a sample of u s index option returns between 1996 and 2010 we show that the cpt model ts well observed option prices and therefore the variance premium in a dynamic setting probability weighting and time varying equity return volatility combine to match the observed time series pattern of the variance premium

reforms with a female face gender liberalization and economic policy in andhra pradesh india summary the state of andhra pradesh india provides a case study of a liberalization program with an emphasis on women s empowerment based on the state budget data and fieldwork data from two villages this paper investigates the content of this policy regime to argue that women s empowerment policies were ultimately constrained by the policy context of liberalization the state lowered shares of expenditure upon social reproduction and the substantive content of women s empowerment policy was reduced to a thrift and micro credit program fieldwork data indicate the latter lacks administrative support and relies upon the expenditure of time and resources by participants themselves re emphasizing class and caste inequalities among women and undermining the broader project of empowerment

the uniqueness of the energy security justice and governance problem this article argues that among all policy fields exhibiting externalities of a global scale energy stands out on four dimensions vertical complexity horizontal complexity higher entailed costs and stronger path dependency these structural attributes are at odds with contemporary key challenges of energy security energy justice and low carbon energy transition with regard to the latter energy governance challenges occur related to unclear levels of authority and weak resilience this has implications for energy scholarship specifically relating to the political economy of energy transitions discussions about common pool resources systems analysis and other neighboring disciplines

the impossible default qualitative data on borrower responses to two types of social collateral microfinance structures in rural china abstractqualitative data reveal how the social context underlying the ties linking borrowers in microfinance programmes influences their decisions focusing directly on social context makes it possible to distinguish between two social collateral structures and explain why one facilitated repayment while the other did not fieldwork in rural china shows that the basis of the social ties in the social collateral structure is central to explaining whether and why individuals decided to sanction defaulters and repay loans the article closes with reflections on generalisations of these findings to future microfinance research

a theory of anticipated utility abstract a new theory of cardinal utility with an associated set of axioms is presented it is a generalization of the von neumann morgenstern expected utility theory which permits the analysis of phenomena associated with the distortion of subjective probability

distinguishing probability weighting from risk misperceptions in field data abstract we outline a strategy for distinguishing rank dependent probability weighting from systematic risk misperceptions in field data our strategy relies on singling out a field environment with two key properties i the objects of choice are money lotteries with more than two outcomes and ii the ranking of outcomes differs across lotteries we first present an abstract model of risky choice that elucidates the identification problem and our strategy the model has numerous applications including insurance choices and gambling we then consider the application of insurance deductible choices and illustrate our strategy using simulated data

green energy market development in germany effective public policy and emerging customer demand this paper reviews the development of renewable energy in germany from 1973 to 2003 it investigates the relative importance of energy policy and green power marketing in shaping the renewable energy market more than a decade of consistent policy support for renewables under the feed in law streg and its successor eeg has been an important driver for increasing renewable electricity generation to date putting the country in a better position than most of its peers when it comes to achieving european union targets for renewable energy green power marketing driven by customer demand on the other hand is growing but has had limited measurable impact so far we discuss potential intangible benefits of green power marketing and scenarios for future market development the paper concludes with lessons that can be learned from the german case for policy design and market development in other countries

segmentation collateral undervaluation and the rate of interest in agrarian credit markets some evidence from two villages in south india this paper examines certain issues pertaining to the structure of agrarian credit markets in developing countries using empirical evidence on credit transactions from two villages in south india first the bases for the segmentation between formal and informal sectors of the credit market are identified as being 1 the type of collateral offered on credit contracts and 2 the purpose for which credit is taken secondly the paper shows the occurrence of a systematic association between rates of interest and types of collateral the evidence supports the hypothesis that lower marketability of collateral security and hence higher undervaluation increases the rate of interest charged on a loan thirdly the evidence shows an inverse relationship between the value of land owned by a borrower and the rate of interest on a credit contract copyright 1991 by oxford university press

solar feed in tariffs and the merit order effect a study of the german electricity market abstract this study investigates the merit order effect moe of the recent years implementation of solar power in germany market clearing electricity prices and production levels are compared for the years 2009 2011 and a model for the relationship between the electricity price and price sensitive electricity production is developed and applied to predict electricity prices in germany from july 2010 to july 2011 with and without solar electricity generation seg the results show that the seg has caused a 7 reduction in average electricity prices for this period the average daily maximum price and daily price variation are also found to decrease by 13 and 23 respectively when taking the moe into account the net consumer s cost of the solar feed in tariff fit system is found to be 23 less than the charge listed in the electricity bill the german fit policy for solar power has been subject to considerable public debate and a common argument brought up in disfavor of the system is the high cost for the consumers in this study we demonstrate the importance of including the moe when evaluating the total costs and benefits of the fit policy mechanism

the nash bargaining solution for decision weight utility functions abstract a simple derivation of the non expected utility nash outcome as defined in rubinstein et al 1992 rubinstein a safra z thomson w 1992 on the interpretation of the nash bargaining solution and its extension to non expected utility preferences econometrica 60 1171 1186 is given for the class of decision weight utility functions conditions for existence and uniqueness are provided

the german energy transition as a regime shift abstract in this paper i use the resilience framework to interpret the project of transforming the german energy system into a renewable energy sources res based system the so called energiewende as a regime shift this regime shift comprises several transformations which are currently altering the technological political and economic system structure to build my argument i first sketch how technological political and economic developments reduced the resilience of the conventional fossil nuclear energy regime and created a new res regime second i depict recent changes in german public discourse and energy policy as the shift to the res regime third i highlight the challenges involved with increasing the resilience of the res regime in particular sufficient resilience of the electricity transmission grid appears to be crucial for facilitating the transformation of the whole energy system

managing the energy trilemma the case of indonesia abstract this article argues that a central challenge for energy governance is how to manage a complex energy trilemma involving the sometimes competing demands of energy security climate change mitigation and particularly in developing countries energy poverty it suggests that tensions between the horns of the trilemma in large part explain indonesia s current profoundly suboptimal energy policy while these tensions are not inherently incapable of resolution such resolution would require good governance at both state and global levels the possibilities for and obstacles confronting such governance are explored and provisional solutions canvassed

household portfolio diversification a case for rank dependent preferences the proliferation of novel preference theories in financial economics is hampered by a lack of non experimental evidence and by the theories additional complexity which has not been shown to be critical in applications in this article i present arguments in support of preferences with rank dependency using the survey of consumer finances data i document two widespread patterns inconsistent with expected utility i many households simultaneously invest in well deversified funds and in poorly diversified portfolios of stocks and ii some households with substantial savings do not invest anything in equities i show that portfolio choice models with rank dependent preferences plausibly parameterized and under fully rational assumptions are quantitatively consistent with the observed diversification these results call for further efforts to integrate the models of rank dependent preferences in portfolio theory and asset pricing the decision theoretic literature has long acknowledged the shortcomings of the expected utility theory of von neumann and morgenstern 1944 several generalizations of the theory are inspired by the experimental evidence and aimed at improving its descriptive accuracy however there are few applications of new models of preferences in finance and expected utility continues to dominate the field 1 two principal hurdles slow the proliferation of novel preferences in financial economics first the lack of empirical non experimental or field data confirming that the behavior motivating non expected utilities is widespread outside the laboratory settings second the additional and often significant complexity of the alternative preferences which has not been shown to be critical in applications where the models based on expected utility fall short of reasonable predictions this article presents empirical and theoretical this paper was previously circulated under the title household portfolio diversification the paper has benefited from the comments of shlomo benartzi luca benzoni markus brunnermeier john dickhaut maria perozek raj singh hersh shefrin and workshop participants at minnesota finance bag lunch 2003 wharton conference household financial decision making and portfolio choice and 2003 summer meetings of econometric society i would like to thank cam harvey the editor and an anonymous referee for many helpful comments and suggestions a special thanks to jack kareken for comments and editorial help on an earlier draft i am grateful to donna zerwitz for editorial assistance the views expressed herein are those of the author and not necessarily of the federal reserve bank of minneapolis or the federal reserve system all errors and omissions are the sole responsibility of the author address correspondence to valery polkovnichenko finance 3 122 csom 319 19 th

indicators for energy security the concept of energy security is widely used yet there is no consensus on its precise interpretation in this research we have provided an overview of available indicators for long term security of supply sos we distinguished four dimensions of energy security that relate to the availability accessibility affordability and acceptability of energy and classified indicators for energy security according to this taxonomy there is no one ideal indicator as the notion of energy security is highly context dependent rather applying multiple indicators leads to a broader understanding incorporating these indicators in model based scenario analysis showed accelerated depletion of currently known fossil resources due to increasing global demand coupled with increasing spatial discrepancy between consumption and production international trade in energy carriers is projected to have increased by 142 in 2050 compared to 2008 oil production is projected to become increasingly concentrated in a few countries up to 2030 after which production from other regions diversifies the market under stringent climate policies this diversification may not occur due to reduced demand for oil possible benefits of climate policy include increased fuel diversity and slower depletion of fossil resources

agricultural workers credit rationing and family networks in rural mexico abstractwe use mixed methods and first hand household data in mexico to investigate credit practices by households engaged in agricultural wage employment quantitative analysis shows evidence of rationing in the formal sector but also suggests the existence of mitigating mechanisms qualitative analysis provides additional insights first income patterns associated with agricultural wage generate income smoothing needs that are sometimes better met by the informal sector second family networks can perform key functions as gateways to the formal sector through specific informal arrangements that inject flexibility into formal rules and procedures

adding value to randomization with qualitative analysis the case of microcredit in rural morocco this paper analyzes microcredit demand and use to draw lessons on how households appropriate microcredit services it introduces qualitative analysis to a randomized study findings suggest that microcredit demand and use is shaped not only by agro ecological conditions but by two major partially interrelated factors debt related norms articulated with the perception of the sanction in case of repayment default and the social life of microcredit namely how social actors credit officers and local leaders engage with microcredit on a conceptual perspective we argue that microcredit markets do not result from supply confronting demand but instead are historical political and social constructs

estimating risk preferences from deductible choice we develop a structural econometric model to estimate risk preferences from data on deductible choices in auto insurance contracts we account for adverse selection by modeling unobserved heterogeneity in both risk claim rate and risk aversion we find large and skewed heterogeneity in risk attitudes in addition women are more risk averse than men risk aversion exhibits a u shape with respect to age and proxies for income and wealth are positively associated with absolute risk aversion finally unobserved heterogeneity in risk aversion is greater than that of risk and as we illustrate has important implications for insurance pricing

financial market fragmentation and reforms in ghana malawi nigeria and tanzania this article reports the findings from surveys of formal and informal institutions and their clients in ghana malawi nigeria and tanzania it investigates the hypothesis that reforming financially repressive policies would not be sufficient to overcome fragmentation of financial markets because of structural and institutional barriers to interactions across different market segments the four countries have substantially fragmented financial markets with weak linkages between formal and informal segments and interest rate differentials that cannot be adequately explained by differences in costs and risks nevertheless the relatively low transaction costs and loan losses of informal institutions indicate that they provide a reasonably efficient solution to information transaction cost and enforcement problems that exclude their clients from access to formal banking services the findings imply that financial liberalization and bank restructuring in the african context should be accompanied by complementary measures to address institutional and structural problems such as contract enforcement and information availability and to improve the integration of informal and formal financial markets

debt in rural south india fragmentation social regulation and discrimination this micro level study combines multivariate and qualitative analyses to highlight the fragmented nature of debt in southern indian rural households it finds that debt is socially regulated in the sense that social interactions shape the cost use and access to debt caste social class and location affect how individuals borrow varying amounts from distinct money providers for varied purposes and at differing costs debt thus is not purely an economic but first and foremost a social transaction which inscribes debtors and creditors into local systems of hierarchies furthermore we find that debt is an illustration and catalyst of broader socio economic and political trends namely a lack of social protection persistent under employment and rising consumerism in terms of policy implications the study highlights the ambiguities and illusions inherent to financial inclusion policies aiming to eradicate informal debt

does the use of nuclear power lead to lower electricity prices an analysis of the debate in germany with an international perspective abstract there is an ongoing discussion if it is reasonable to start using nuclear energy to extend its use or what effects its phase out could have in july 2011 four months after the nuclear accidents in japan germany decided to return to the policy of phasing out nuclear energy step by step until 2022 this policy was already decided upon in 2000 with this a decision made some nine months earlier was taken back in fall 2010 the government and parliament had approved the extension of the operating lives of its nuclear plants by at least 14 years one reason was the expected effect on the electricity price which was said to be lower with extended nuclear plant life spans however there is an ongoing debate on this argument not only in germany this article presents a critical survey of the core arguments brought forward in favour of expected future price cuts it is shown that the theoretical electricity market models used in these exercises are not adequate to reliably predict such effects furthermore evidence is presented suggesting that extending nuclear plant life spans or the commissioning of new reactors in other countries is unlikely to curb domestic electricity prices