investment and coordination in oligopolistic industries we examine investment by firms in 24 chemical product industries to determine whether firms invest preemptively to achieve persistent increases in market share or whether there is evidence of behavior to maintain market share the data indicate that investment reduces the probability that rival firms will expand capacity but the effect is temporary large firms tend to maintain market share while smaller firms tend to invest simultaneously with rivals the role of preemptive investment is limited to that of permitting a firm to invest with a lower probability of redundant investment by rivals preemption does not allow a persistent increase in market share but instead acts as a means by which firms may coordinate capacity investment to help avoid episodes of industry overcapacity

an empirical model of capacity expansion and pricing in an oligopoly with barometric price leadership a case study of the newsprint industry in north america the weak form of oligopolistic coordination in pricing and capacity expansion of the north american newsprint industry is examined a dynamic model consisting of demand price and regional capacity equations is estimated for the years 1965 to 1986 the reference price in the industry is hypothesized to be based on either adjusted full cost pricing or mark up over marginal cost pricing neither hypothesis was rejected confirming that either pricing rule better describes industry practices than marginal cost pricing the determinant of mark up levels was the industry operating rate the model also showed that capacity expansion was negatively related to the concentration ratio

the optimal taxation of fiat money in search equilibrium this paper investigates the link between welfare and the taxation of money in the context of a general equilibrium search model where decentralized trading motivates the use of fiat money since buyers with money must invest effort or search intensity to contact sellers with goods a natural trading externality arises given a sufficiently productive economy search efforts will be too low relative to social efficiency this provides a welfare improving role for policies which tax money balances the nature of this role is explored and its implications for optimal monetary policy discussed copyright 1995 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

on the role of demand and strategic uncertainty in capacity investment and disinvestment dynamics abstract even mature industries seldom settle down into a long run steady state fluctuations in demand disrupt the status quo and call for firms to adjust their capacities on an ongoing basis we construct a fully dynamic model of an oligopolistic industry with lumpy capacity and lumpy investment disinvestment decisions in addition to uncertainty about the evolution of demand a firm faces strategic uncertainty concerning the decisions of its rivals we numerically solve the model for its markov perfect equilibria for one set of parameter values three equilibria exist and while all of them have simple intuitive structures they exhibit widely varying patterns of response to demand shocks at one extreme one firm dominates the industry almost as a monopolist and changes its capacity to accommodate demand at the other extreme the larger firm keeps its capacity nearly constant while the smaller firm acts as the swing producer

competitor see competitor do incumbent entry in new market niches the ability to keep up with changing technology is critical for a company s long term survival however companies have to balance the risk of rushing into new areas and potentially cannibalizing their existing business against the risk of missing the emerging market this paper investigates when incumbents enter into new market niches created by technological innovation we argue that market conditions and company specific characteristics do not suffice to explain incumbents entry timing but that entry is a contagious process our results demonstrate that incumbents are more likely to respond to innovations in their industry when their counterparts do so in particular we show that incumbents are affected by the entry of firms that are similar in size and resources when a highly similar company enters the new market it raises the probability that the company enters itself beyond levels based solely on the attractiveness of the market

the economy wide impacts and risks of malawi s farm input subsidy program we estimate the impact of malawi farm input subsidy programme using an economywide approach we find potentially substantial net benefits with indirect benefits accounting for about two fifths of total benefits due to these indirect benefits the cut off

price setting supergames with capacity constraints this paper examines the role of industry capacity in enforcing collusion in the context of repeated games for a fixed capacity per firm it is shown that changes in the number of firms have a non monotone effect on the best enforceable cartel price this is due to the fact that while an additional firm lowers the share that each of the other firms enjoys at the collusive price it also increases the losses to each firm should the cartel fail

an analysis of preemptive behavior in the titanium dioxide industry abstract much of the recent theoretical work on oligopoly theory focuses on preemptive capital expansion this paper continues this work by testing whether dupont s behavior in the titanium dioxide industry was consistent with the capital commitment model between 1972 and 1977 this is different from previous empirical papers analyzing preemptive capital expansion because it focuses on strategic behavior in a specific industry and because the hypothesis tests in this paper are based on a formal model of firms optimizing behavior the results lend support to the conclusion that dupont committed capital to preempt the smallest five firms in the industry between 1972 and 1977

investment interdependence and the coordination of lumpy investments evidence from the british brick industry the brick industry is characterized by regional markets lumpy capacity increments and high fixed costs in such an industry the coordination of rival expansions in capacity can be crucial to the profitability of those expansions evidence from the british brick industry suggests that excess investments are generally avoided but there is little support for existing theories to explain how this is achieved the explanation for how coordination failures are avoided is based on firm heterogeneity the regional dimension to the investment decision and the prospects for and consequences of growth by acquisition

long term consequences of short term precipitation shocks evidence from brazilian migrant households we find that large short term precipitation shocks damage the long term income of households that have permanently migrated from rural to urban areas this outcome is consistent with the behavior of credit constrained rural households who are willing to accept lower long term income in urban areas following the depletion of their productive assets during an adverse shock our empirical evidence suggests that there may be a link between large precipitation shocks in rural areas and urban poverty further exploration is warranted on the mechanisms by which natural disasters cause these long term losses

a study of cartel stability the joint executive committee 1880 1886 this article employs weekly time series data on the joint executive committee railroad cartel from 1880 to 1886 to test empirically the proposition that observed prices reflected switches from collusive to noncooperative behavior an equilibrium model of dynamic oligopoly with asymmetric firms together with explicit functional form assumptions about costs and demand determines the estimating equations and stochastic structure of the econometric model the hypothesis that no switch took place so that price and quantity movements were solely attributable to exogenous shifts in the demand and cost functions is then tested against this alternative and rejected

input subsidy programs in sub saharan africa a synthesis of recent evidence input subsidy programs have once again become a major plank of agricultural development strategies in africa ten african governments spend roughly us 1 billion annually on input subsidy programs isps amounting to 28 6 of their public expenditures on agriculture this article reviews the microlevel evidence on isps undertaken since the mid 2000s we examine the characteristics of subsidy beneficiaries crop response rates to fertilizer application and their influence on the performance of subsidy programs the impacts of subsidy programs on national fertilizer use and the development of commercial input distribution systems and finally the impact of isps on food price levels and poverty rates the weight of the evidence indicates that the costs of the programs generally outweigh their benefits findings from other developing areas with a higher proportion of crop area under irrigation and with lower fertilizer prices factors that should provide higher returns to fertilizer subsidies than in africa indicate that at least a partial reallocation of expenditures from fertilizer subsidies to r d and infrastructure would provide higher returns to agricultural growth and poverty reduction however because isps enable governments to demonstrate tangible support to constituents they are likely to remain on the african landscape for the foreseeable future hence the study identifies ways in which benefits can be enhanced through changes in implementation modalities and complementary investments within a holistic agricultural intensification strategy among the most important of these are efforts to reduce the crowding out of commercial fertilizer distribution systems and programs to improve soil fertility to enable farmers to use fertilizer more efficiently the challenges associated with achieving these gains are likely to be formidable

excess capacity as a barrier to entry an empirical appraisal this paper examines excess capacity barriers to entry and investment dynamics in a sample of thirty eight chemical product industries logit and log linear models of investment behavior are estimated and specific case examples are considered the results show that incumbents rarely built excess capacity pre emptively in an effort to deter entry in general entrants and incumbents exhibited similar investment behavior

multinational investment under uncertainty in the chemical processing industries this study uses a sample of chemical processing industries to evaluate the effect of two types of uncertainty on the decision to invest in an industry it analyzes the effects of relative price uncertainty through exchange rates and input prices and demand uncertainty on the probability of expansion in a particular country the study then focuses on the behavior of individual companies and distinguishes companies by whether or not they are multinationals in the production of the product the results confirm previous evidence that exchange rate uncertainty has a negative effect on capacity expansions by domestic corporations and no effect on investment by multinational corporations finally the study also shows that expansions of production capacity in this industry are more likely to occur in those countries where capacity utilization is higher

the bright side of internal capital markets we examine capital expenditure decisions of discount firms in response to wal mart s entry into their markets before wal mart s entry focused incumbents and discount divisions of diversified incumbents are similar in size geographic dispersion and firm debt levels however discount divisions of diversified firms are significantly more productive after wal mart s entry diversified firms are quicker to either exit the discount business or stay and fight also their capital expenditures are more sensitive to the productivity of their discount business internal capital markets function well as transfers are away from the worsening discount divisions it appears diversified firms make better investment decisions

inflation and welfare in retail markets prior production and imperfectly directed search this paper considers the effect of monetary policy and inflation on retail markets goods are dated and produced prior to being retailed buyers direct their search on price and general quality buyers match specific tastes are private information sellers set the same price for all buyers some of whom do not value the good highly enough to buy it the market economy is typically inefficient as a social planner would have the good consumed under free entry of sellers the friedman rule is optimal policy when the upper bound on the number of participating sellers binds moderate levels of inflation can be welfare improving

labor shortages on small landholdings in malawi implications for policy reforms abstract a simple linear programming model of representative smallholder households is used to investigate the sources of relative scarcity of labor and land in malawi the paradox of on farm labor shortages on small landholdings can be explained by the multiple constraints smallholders face these multiple constraints including lack of finance concerns for food security and others lead to suboptimal allocations of household resources in turn the low returns to labor and land contribute to household food insecurity and a vicious cycle of poverty the findings of the paper provide a clear signal to policymakers and research and extension institutions that these constraints are all linked and addressing one cannot be effective without addressing the others

market growth economies of scale and plant size in the chemical processing industries what factors determine the size of new industrial plants this study uses data on twenty tw o chemical products to test alternative models of capacity expansion including the manne model and a scale frontier model the empiri cal results strongly support the scale frontier model the size of n ew plants increased along a time trend that was unrelated to market c oncentration market growth or the magnitude of investment scale eco nomies entrants typically built smaller plants than incumbents but all firms built plants closer to the technological frontier when smal l plants carried a higher relative cost penalty copyright 1987 by blackwell publishing ltd

on the multiplicity of monetary equilibria green zhou meets lagos wright abstract green and zhou relax the assumption made in early search based models of monetary exchange of indivisible money their paper and various extensions make much technical progress and derive some interesting substantive results in particular they show there is an indeterminacy of steady state monetary equilibria we reconsider this result in the framework of lagos and wright which is more tractable we show that a similar multiplicity arises and is much easier to derive and understand we also compare the results to those in related nonmonetary models and discuss how they depend on details including the number of agents and the timing

capital as a commitment strategic investment to deter mobility abstract this paper analyzes how an early entrant in a market can exploit its head start by strategic investment the analysis is based on spence s paper investment strategy and growth in a new market bell j econ 10 1979 1 19 we frist study the investment game in the no discounting case which embodies the key features of mobility deterrence we establish the existence of a set of perfect equilibria and suggest that one particular equilibrium is most reasonable this equilibrium also valid with discounting involves the follower firm being forever deterred from investing to its steady state reaction curve in contrast to spence s proposed solution

prices wages and poverty in rural india what lessons do the time series data hold for policy abstract looking back over 40 years or so one finds that higher relative prices of food in india have typically been associated with higher poverty incidence and lower real agricultural wages this has not gone unnoticed by critics of agricultural policy reform in india who have argued that reform could permanently increase poverty by permanently raising food prices relative to non food prices however a number of other observations about the time series evidence cast doubt on this interpretation the correlation with poverty as it is being measured is not a distributional effect yet it is very unlikely that the rural sector as a whole could be worse off from a higher relative price of food instead the correlation with poverty can be explained by shocks to aggregate food output the correlation between food prices and real wages can be explained by changes in farm yields and inflation critics of reform appear to have misread the lessons for policy but these data cannot be used to support the view that higher food prices due to policy reform will on their own reduce rural poverty

peasant household behaviour with missing markets some paradoxes explained a model of peasant household behavior under varying degrees of household specific food and labor market failures is constructed to show that these structural features can explain several well known patterns of peasant response which have often been attributed to peculiar motives presumed specific to peasants the model explains sluggish response to cash crops prices and high instability in perceived food and labor scarcities the key role of manufactured consumer goods prices in stimulating peasants effort in cash crops production the effectiveness of taxation as opposed to incentives in stimulating cash crops production and the key role of technological change in food production to enhance cash crop production results are obtained analytically in the case of one market failure and by numerical simulation with more than one

learning from the behavior of others conformity fads and informational cascades learning by observing the past decisions of others can help explain some otherwise puzzling phenomena about human behavior for example why do people tend to converge on similar behavior why is mass behavior prone to error and fads the authors argue that the theory of observational learning and particularly of informational cascades has much to offer economics business strategy political science and the study of criminal behavior

wage and employment effects of malawi s fertilizer subsidy program this article uses three waves of nationally representative household level panel data from malawi to estimate how a large scale fertilizer subsidy program impacts the agricultural labor market known as ganyu in that country i find that when looking across the entire population of smallholders receiving an additional 100 kg of subsidized fertilizer causes the average household to supply about three fewer days of ganyu the fertilizer subsidy program also has a small positive effect on the probability that a household demands agricultural labor with the results approaching statistical significance in addition a 10 kg increase in the average amount of subsidized fertilizer acquired per household in a community boosts the median agricultural wage rate by 1 4 in that community the increase in wage rates translates to a us 1 40 per year increase in average household income in the years after malawi s subsidy program was scaled up and a us 1 86 per year increase in average household income for those who sold their labor before the subsidy program was scaled up this finding suggests that households who sell their labor off farm may experience some small spillover benefit from the program in the form of higher agricultural wage rates

on the timing of production decisions in monetary economies in most macroeconomic models inflation tends to be harmful in this paper we show that by simply changing the timing of production decisions by firms from on demand to in advance some inflation can boost welfare as long as goods are sufficiently perishable the main conclusion from this research is that by effectively hiding the strategic interaction between supply and demand assuming production on demand is not without loss of generality

capacity utilization theoretical models and empirical tests abstract this paper examines the determinants of industry capacity utilization in 40 chemical product industries over a period of roughly two decades a series of testable hypotheses are developed based on three operations research models of capacity expansion the manne model the newsboy model and the whitt luss model the hypotheses are tested on the chemical industries sample using multiple regression analysis the empirical results are consistent with most predictions derived from the newsboy and whitt luss models which suggests that firms made expansion decisions in a manner roughly in accordance with these models capacity utilization was positively related to capital intensity and the trend rate of demand growth and was negatively related to demand variability geographic plant dispersion and plant lumpiness the magnitude of investment scale economies and the extent of multi plant operation had little effect on capacity utilization

competitive capacity expansion under demand uncertainty abstract we analyze the capacity expansion behavior of firms in a duopoly faced with an uncertain new market the market demand may be high or low with a given probability mass function firms obtain private information about the market size and build their capacity before the market demand is known once the demand is revealed firms enter a capacity constrained price competition phase which determines their revenues two scenarios are considered first when firms choose their capacities simultaneously in the investment phase and second when they do so sequentially for each case we determine the unique symmetric nash equilibrium excess capacity can occur in equilibrium in the industry it is seen that preempting the competitor in the capacity expansion phase offers first mover benefits we argue that the sequential moves game is more prone to equilibrium excess capacity compared to the simultaneous case we show that preemption is a good strategy if the investing environment is either highly optimistic or highly pessimistic if the industry outlook is only moderately optimistic a capacity planner is still better off preempting his competitor however the industry may encounter overcapacity as a consequence

markets and pro poor agricultural growth insights from livelihood and informal rural economy models in malawi this article presents the development of a set of programming models describing the major features of different rural livelihoods and of the informal rural economy they together make up in malawi the models allow for differentiated responses by different household types to change and for the partial equilibrium effects of consequent supply demand and price adjustments in labor and grain markets the models provide insights into the relations between own farm and nonown farm activities in different households livelihoods and in the informal rural economy as a whole and are used to investigate possible impacts of increasing cash crop prices and of a more open rural economy impacts of these changes on the poor are found to be critically dependent upon supply and demand elasticities in labor and grain markets but the poor could potentially suffer significant losses from increased openness of the local economy leading to increased expenditure by less poor households on imported goods and services

using shadow wages to estimate labor supply of agricultural households with few exceptions most studies of the labor demand and supply decisions of agricultural households in developing countries have relied on the empirical advantages of separability given the questionable nature of some of the assumptions sufficient for separability i apply a recent methodology that accounts for the simultaneity between the production and consumption decisions of a farm household using data from rural india direct estimates of the marginal productivities shadow wages of family male and female labor are derived from a cobb douglas agricultural production function the estimated shadow wages and income are then used as regressors in a structural model of labor supply

transactions costs and agricultural household supply response we develop and estimate a model of supply response when transactions costs create a situation where some producers buy others sell and others do not participate in markets we present two rationales for why producing households may have different relationships to the market proportional and fixed transactions costs using data on mexican corn producers we estimate an empirical model that allows for separate tests of the significance of both types of transactions costs revealing that both fixed and proportional transactions costs matter for the estimation the results provide consistent estimates of supply elasticity and measures of the relative importance of factors determining both proportional and fixed transactions costs

subsidies and crowding out a double hurdle model of fertilizer demand in malawi this article uses a double hurdle model with panel data from malawi to investigate how fertilizer subsidies affect farmer demand for commercial fertilizer the article controls for potential endogeneity caused by the nonrandom targeting of fertilizer subsidy recipients results show that on average 1 additional kilogram of subsidized fertilizer crowds out 0 22 kg of commercial fertilizer but crowding out ranges from 0 18 among the poorest farmers to 0 30 among relatively nonpoor farmers this indicates that targeting fertilizer subsidies to the rural poor is likely to maximize the contribution of the subsidy program to total fertilizer use

firm market share price flexibility and imperfect information this paper argues that firms with larger market shares will be relatively better informed about demand conditions the main implications are 1 more rapid price adjustments in concentrated industries 2 price leadership in industries with dominant firms and 3 price setting behavior by the concentrated side of the market

large company capital formation and effects of market share turbulence micro data evidence from the pims database the possible effect of demand uncertainty on company investment decisions is investigated at the micro level a standard investment function is employed and modified to incorporate demand uncertainty the data comes from the pims data base on business units of large firms in concentrated markets in dynamic panel data estimation significance was found for a variable representing market share turbulence in a number of industries this variable causes a depressing effect on capital investment either on its own or in combination with indicators of vertical integration which indicate insulation from demand uncertainty the results constitute some of the best available evidence that demand uncertainty constraints capital investment

the role of potential competition in industrial organization potential competition has been recognized as a mechanism to control the exploitation of market power at least since the work of j b clark 1902 but it was not until 50 years later that economists most notably joe bain and paolo sylos labini refocused attention on the idea with inputs from the theories of imperfect competition optimal control and dynamic games their work evolved into ever more sophisticated models of the reactions of existing competitors to the threat of new competition although the most appropriate models of competitive interaction are those which begin with a specific industry a number of theories have been proposed which attempt to develop more general conclusions my purpose in this paper is to develop an understanding of the strengths and limitations of these alternative theories by examining the available theoretical empirical and institutional knowledge rather than attempt the sisyphean task of recounting every model which relates conditions of entry and market performance i have partitioned the analysis into four major schools of thought according to their most central propositions these are the traditional model of limit pricing dynamic limit pricing the theory of contestable markets and the market efficiency model traditional limit pricing models rest on the assumption that firms respond to entry but are able to earn persistent profits when the structural characteristics of markets make entry difficult dynamic limit pricing is similar but emphasizes that markets can only be temporarily protected from entry contestability theory in its pure form asserts that potential competition is as effective as actual competition in controlling market performance the efficient markets hypothesis broadly interpreted states that markets are workably competitive and that the market structure reflects differential efficiency not strategic behavior while one can construct many other hypotheses about potential competition these classifications

import share under international oligopoly with differentiated products japanese imports in u s manufacturing this paper seeks to identify the determinants of the japanese impor t share in the u s market from the assumptions of international oligopoly and internationally differentiated products a theoretical model is developed where import share is considered as a cournot nash equilibrium the relative position of the reaction functions is determined by the previous commitments of both domestic and foreign firms on advertising r d and tangible investment as well as by artificial and natural trade barriers using a sample of twenty four three digit import competing u s industries matched to japanese industries the empirical analysis provides evidence supporting the model s predictions that the relative strategic expenditures and market structures of both partners explain the japanese import share in u s markets copyright 1988 by mit press

how do fertilizer subsidy programs affect total fertilizer use in sub saharan africa crowding out diversion and benefit cost assessments a major determinant of input subsidy programs effects on the achievement of national policy goals is the extent to which they raise total fertilizer use this study synthesizes recent literature on how the new generation of targeted input subsidy programs has affected national fertilizer use after accounting for crowding effects and derives benefit cost bc estimates of the fertilizer subsidy programs for kenya malawi and zambia after accounting for crowding out and diversion we highlight two major findings first accounting for the illicit diversion of program fertilizer can profoundly influence estimates of how fertilizer subsidy programs affect total fertilizer use and program impacts given recent evidence that 33 or more of total program fertilizer may be diverted before being received by intended beneficiary farmers the failure to account for program diversion is shown to overestimate the contribution of the subsidy programs to national fertilizer use by 67 3 in the case of malawi by 61 6 for zambia and by 138 0 for kenya the second major finding is that the incremental value of maize output produced from these subsidy programs is considerably less than their costs in most years except under unusually high maize price assumptions conventional bc analyses that do not account for crowding out and diversion may seriously overestimate the benefits of input subsidy programs greater attention to program design and implementation details to reduce problems of crowding out and diversion can substantially raise the returns to such programs

lumpy capacity investment and disinvestment dynamics capacity addition and withdrawal decisions are among the most important strategic decisions made by firms in oligopolistic industries in this paper we develop and analyze a fully dynamic model of an oligopolistic industry with lumpy capacity and lumpy investment disinvestment we use our model to suggest answers to two questions first what economic factors facilitate preemption races second what economic factors facilitate capacity coordination with a series of examples we show that low product differentiation low investment sunkness and high depreciation tend to promote preemption races the same examples also show that low product differentiation and low investment sunkness tend to promote capacity coordination although depreciation removes capacity it might impede capacity coordination finally our examples show that multiple equilibria arise over at least some range of parameter values the distinct structures of these equilibria suggest that firms expectations play a key role in determining whether or not industry dynamics are characterized by preemption races and capacity coordination taken together our results suggest that preemption races and excess capacity in the short run often go hand in hand with capacity coordination in the long run

irreversible investments and volatile markets a study of the chemical processing industry this paper investigates the empirical effect of volatility on irreversible investments we use a sample of chemical products in the united states and the european union to test the impact of volatility on new investments in capacity we distinguish among three sources of volatility exchange rates input prices and product demand we find that the effects of volatility on the amount of capacity investment differ depending on the source of volatility input prices and product demand volatility do not appear to have a material and statistically significant effect in either the united states or the european union in contrast exchange rate volatility has a significant negative impact on investment by chemical manufacturers in the european union

resolving the commitment versus flexibility trade off the role of resource accumulation lags we examine how time consuming resource accumulation influences the classic strategy trade off between commitment and flexibility in particular using 1975 95 data from the worldwide petrochemical

rural wages labor supply and land reform a theoretical and empirical analysis land reform is one of the most mentioned of the theoretical policy instruments discussed in the development literature yet relatively little attention has been paid to the wage rate consequences of such a program despite the fact that perhaps more than one half of rural families in a developing country receive a substantial proportion of their income from wage earnings in agriculture one reason for this lacuna may be that the determination of wages and family labor supply in the agricultural sector of ldcs has also been somewhat neglected particularly in the context of a heterogeneous labor force 2 the subsistence or institutional wage models of w arthur lewis john fei and gustav ranis and gerald rodgers for instance offer no theory of how rural wage levels or differentials are set and thus provide little guidance on how wage rates would be affected by changes in land ownership patterns more recently pranab bardhan and t n srinivasan david newbery and clive bell and pinhas zusman who formulate general equilibrium market or bargaining models determining endogenously the rental share paid by tenant sharecroppers have assumed that agricultural wage rates are exogenous or determined only by nonagricultural factors all of these models assume that rural labor is homogeneous another reason why the potential wage impact of a land reform program may have received little attention is that models of peasant family behavior such as those of a k sen dipak mazumdar and robert mabro typically embody two restrictive assumptions which would tend to make the equalization of landholdings appear wage augmenting although this implication has never been formally derived these assumptions are that 1 agriculture is dualistic with small farm families facing lower shadow prices of labor leisure than large farm landlords because of impediments to labor mobility and 2 agricultural households are dichotomous small farmers employ family labor and maximize utility while large farms only utilize wage labor and maximize profits data from a 1970 71 allindia survey of over 5 000 households collected by the national council of applied economic research3 indicate however that almost all cultivator households large and small participate actively in the labor market as either buyers or sellers of labor services with almost 88 percent of households cultivating a gross cropped area less than 1 5 acres utilizing some hired labor seventynine percent of these small farm households associate professor yale ujniversity the research embodied in this paper was supported in part by a grant from the ford and rockefeller foundations program in support of social science and legal research on population policy and with funds from the u s agency for international development under order no aid otr 1432 helpful suggestions and comments were provided by james l mccabe mark gersovitz an anonymous referee the managing editor and members of the economic growth center yale university i am also grateful to the members of the research program in development studies princeton university for the use of their facilities research assistance was provided by james devine anne morgan and roberta robson inotable exceptions are r albert berry mark gersovitz and m a rahman all of these authors however employ geometric analyses with differing assumptions leading to wholly different predictions regarding wage effects none consider the heterogeneity of agricultural labor pay attention to questions of stability or attempt to apply their models to data 2lnformation on the differential impact of alternative agricultural policies including land reform on sex or age specific wage rates is not only important in settling income distribution and equity issues but as suggested in an article by the author and robert evenson may have significant implications for population growth and schooling as well 3for a more detailed discussion of these data see the author

search price setting and inflation a model of monopolistic competition in an inflationary environment is developed which embodies optimal sequential search price dynamics and entry on the part of consumers and firms respectively equilibrium price strategies are s s these bounds increase continuously with consumer search costs and so does price dispersion indeed the whole equilibrium varies smoothly from the competitive bertrand to the monopolistic diamond 1971 end of the spectrum the latter s paradoxical result is explained as a limiting case where frictions on firms side of the market price adjustment costs but not on buyers search costs tend to zero a positive relationship between smooth and perfectly anticipated inflation and price dispersion or uncertainty is established

an experimental evaluation of strategic preemption abstract this paper reports the results of a series of two stage two person noncooperative games where one player can strategically preempt the other in one of our designs the subgame perfect equilibrium entails complete preemption in the other it entails partial preemption the data show that players tend to completely preempt when it is privately optimal however when partial preemption is privately optimal a non trivial fraction of players persist in choosing the non preemptive structure this may result because of occasional irrational behavior following preemptive play which induces some dominant agents to play less aggressively

the investment behaviour of firms in an oligopolistic setting industrial organization theory has identified strategic investment in capacity as an important element in competition in oligopolistic markets in the paper we specify a model of oligopolistic investment behaviour and test it with panel data for 114 firms in 15 narrowly defined uk manufacturing industries in the 1970s and 1980s the industries are distinguished according to their market characteristics as fragmented dominant firm and dominant group sectors the results indicate behaviour which is noncooperative in fragmented sectors cooperative in dominant group sectors and competitive in dominant firm sectors

when to adopt a service innovation nash equilibria in a competitive diffusion framework abstract we study the optimal timing of adoption of a service innovation that a new entrant firm brings to a market populated by two incumbent firms our analysis is based on a model of competitive diffusion dynamics that extends the monopolistic bass model to include customer churn processes as well as a potential market expansion driven by the innovation we obtain expressions for the time trajectories of the customer bases i e the numbers of customers that use old and new service processes for the competing firms as well as sharper closed form characterizations for the setting with a stable market and homogeneous imitation process in modeling competitive dynamics we consider settings where incumbents anticipate a potential failure of the innovation we use the trajectories for the customer bases to model an optimal adoption response problem faced by one of the incumbent firms when the adoption time for the other incumbent can be anticipated or is pre announced and analyze this problem in the absence of market expansion or intra generational customer churn using the optimal response results we provide the nash equilibrium analysis of the adoption decisions by competing incumbent firms and derive sufficient conditions for the now now now never and never never adoption equilibria we use the trading volume data from the foreign exchange markets to estimate the parameters of the competitive diffusion dynamics for our model and to conduct a numerical investigation of the impact of the uncertainty associated with the success of the innovation on the incumbents nash equilibrium adoption times

shadow wages and peasant family labour supply an econometric application to the peruvian sierra a striking feature of developing economies is the large proportion of the work force that is self employed lack of widespread labor market participation in the agricultural sector can pose a major obstacle to the empirical implementation of economic models of the peasant household whether because wage data are simply not available or because the assumptions required to make use of wage data stretch the bounds of credulity this paper develops a methodology for estimating a structural labor supply model for primarily self employed peasant households which holds under a general agricultural technology and set of labor market conditions the unique feature of the approach is that the opportunity cost of time or shadow wage of household workers is explicitly estimated from an agricultural production function and is subsequently used to identify a set of structural labor supply parameters recent household survey data from rural peru is employed to estimate and perform various diagnostic tests on the model the empirical findings lend support to the hypothesis that peasant households allocate their members time as if to maximize a family utility function and moreover demonstrate the tractability of the shadow wage methodology and its usefulness in estimating more elaborate time allocation models

the effect of time to build on strategic investment under uncertainty we show that time to build which creates a lag between the decision to invest and production is an important element of industry structure we study a multiperiod investment game where there is demand uncertainty adding time to build to the model alters the classic tradeoff between making strategic commitments and exploiting the option to wait furthermore time to build gives rise to novel equilibria in which firms invest incrementally which contrasts with most prior work on multiperiod investment games in which firms invest only once we show how time to build affects firm heterogeneity investment timing the option value of waiting the evolution of prices and social welfare copyright 2003 by the rand corporation

crowding out diversion and benefit cost assessments in fertilizer subsidy programs in sub saharan africa a comment on jayne t s mather d mason n ricker gilbert j 2013 how do fertilizer subsidy programs affect total fertilizer use in sub saharan africa crowding out diversion and benefit cost assessments agric econ 44 6 687 703 jayne et al make a valuable contribution to emerging empirical evidence on agricultural input subsidy programs in africa by examining the effects of corrupt diversion of subsidized fertilizers on the displacement or crowding out effects of farmers purchases of subsidized fertilizer on purchases of unsubsidized fertilizer unfortunately their estimation of the effects of this on economic and financial benefit cost ratios bcrs is methodologically flawed and for malawi is also undermined by problematic use of data this comment presents a consistent methodology for revised estimates of both economic bcr and fiscal efficiency for the malawi program this shows that the underlying economic bcr of subsidized fertilizers in malawi has been higher than estimated by jayne et al and is largely unaffected by diversion and displacement but that the fiscal efficiency of investments in the program is strongly affected by diversion and displacement in program implementation

inflation and efficiency in search markets this paper examines how inflation affects efficiency and output in monopolistically competitive search markets it formalizes the conventional wisdom linking higher inflation price dispersion and increased resources devoted to search it also brings to light the induced exit of arms which reduces rent dissipation but the most important effect of inflation is how it alters the distribution of real transactions prices whether this reduces or promotes efficiency and output is shown to depend critically on preferences and market structure and especially on whether search costs are large or small relative to consumer surplus

dynamic oligopoly with capacity adjustment costs abstract the literature on strategic investment emphasized the case of completely irreversible investment this paper considers an oligopoly model in which investment is reversible and capacity is subject to adjustment costs an n player linear quadratic differential game is analyzed existence and characterization results for perfect equilibrium feedback strategies are provided feedback strategies provide incentives for each player to invest strategically so as to preempt subsequent expansion by rivals a larger set of perfect equilibria is constructed by using memory dependent trigger strategies equilibria of this type are shown to support joint value maximization for some initial states and asymmetric steady states

the political economy of fertilizer subsidy programs in africa evidence from zambia fertilizer subsidy programs have re emerged as popular policy tools in sub saharan africa despite a burgeoning body of literature on program impacts the political economy of the programs remains poorly understood in particular there is a dearth of empirical evidence to support or refute the conventional wisdoms that governments systematically target subsidized inputs to certain areas based on past voting patterns and that fertilizer subsidies win votes this article discusses the theoretical links between government targeting of subsidized fertilizer and voter behavior then uses panel data from zambia to empirically test these conventional wisdoms results suggest that zambia s movement for multi party democracy governments targeted more subsidized fertilizer to households in areas where it had strong support in the previous presidential election however contrary to conventional wisdom marginal changes in the scale or coverage of the fertilizer subsidy program had no statistically significant effect on the share or number of votes won by incumbent presidents

rejoinder to the comment by andrew dorward and ephraim chirwa on jayne t s d mather n mason and j ricker gilbert 2013 how do fertilizer subsidy program affect total fertilizer use in sub saharan africa crowding out diversion and benefit cost assessments agricultural economics 44 6 687 703

productivity and welfare effects of nigeria s e voucher based input subsidy program summary in an attempt to go beyond the so called smart subsidies nigeria has embarked on a potentially innovative mobile phone based input subsidy program that provides fertilizer and improved seed subsidies through electronic vouchers in this article we examined the productivity and welfare effects of the program using household level data from rural nigeria the article employed instrumental variable regression approach to control for the potential endogeneity of the input subsidy program our results suggest that the program is effective in improving productivity and welfare outcomes of beneficiary smallholders the size of the estimated effects suggests a large improvement in productivity and welfare outcomes moreover the distributional effects of the program suggest no heterogeneity effects based on gender and farm land size these results are robust to using alternative measurements of program participation the benefit cost ratio of 1 11 suggests that the program is marginally cost effective overall our results suggest that while improving average productivity is a good outcome for improving food security improving the distributional outcome of the program by targeting the most disadvantaged groups would maximize the program s contribution to food security and poverty reduction

money is memory abstract this paper examines the sets of feasible allocations in a large class of economic environments in which commitment is impossible following myerson 8 the standard definition of feasibility is adapted to take account of the lack of commitment the environments feature either memory or money memory is defined as knowledge on the part of an agent of the full histories of all agents with whom he has had direct or indirect contact in the past money is defined as an object that does not enter utility or production functions and is available in fixed supply the main proposition is that any allocation that is feasible in an environment with money is also feasible in the same environment with memory depending on the environment the converse may or may not be true hence from a technological point of view money is equivalent to a primitive form of memory journal of economic literature classification numbers e40 c73 d82

do fertilizer subsidies crowd out organic manures the case of malawi we assess the impacts of the malawian farm input subsidy program on manure use at the farm plot level using more than 3 000 farm plot observations from six districts in central and southern malawi over three years 2006 2007 and 2009 the probabilities and intensities of manure use were investigated with the correlated random effects cre probit and tobit models the endogeneity of access to fertilizer subsidies and fertilizer use intensity was controlled for with a control function approach both the probability of manure use and intensity of manure use were positively correlated with the intensity of fertilizer use a 1 increase in fertilizer use intensity is associated with a 1 94 1 96 increase in the intensity of manure use outside the subsidy program and a 0 62 1 66 increase in manure use with the subsidy program a 1 increase in average fertilizer price was associated with a 0 43 0 76 increase in the probability of manure use and a 3 5 5 3 increase in the intensity of manure use

robust capacity planning under uncertainty the existence of uncertainty influences the investment production and pricing decision of firms therefore capacity expansion models need to take into account uncertainty this uncertainty may arise because of errors in the specification statistical estimation of relationships and in the assumptions of exogenous variables one such example is demand uncertainty in this paper a cautious capacity planning approach is described for solving problems in which robustness to likely errors is needed the aim is to cast the problem in a deterministic framework and thereby avoid the complexities inherent in nonlinear stochastic formulations we adopt a robust approach and minimize an augmented objective function that penalises the sensitivity of the objective function to various types of uncertainty the robust or sensitivity approach is compared with friedenfelds equivalent deterministic demand method using numerical results from a large nonlinear programming capacity planning model it is shown that as ca

investment sequencing in the brick industry an application of grounded theory since the work of george richardson on the problem of investment co ordination the literature has focused on explaining equilibrium in investment games and neglected the problem of how investments are coordinated this paper reports the findings of a case study of the brick industry which used grounded theory techniques to develop a new analysis of investment co ordination our main findings indicate that despite the high cost of excess capacity and the very clear signalling of investment intentions brick firms are reluctant to stand back and delay their own investments when a rival firm is expanding the fact that for the most part excess investment is avoided is explained by reference to firms heterogeneity and constraints to investment

consumption smoothing migration and marriage evidence from rural india a significant proportion of migration in low income countries particularly in rural areas is composed of moves by women for the purpose of marriage we seek to explain these mobility patterns by examining marital arrangements among indian households in particular we hypothesize that the marriage of daughters to locationally distant dispersed yet kinship related households is a manifestation of implicit interhousehold contractual arrangements aimed at mitigating income risks and facilitating consumption smoothing in an environment characterized by information costs and spatially covariant risks analysis of longitudinal south indian village data lends support to the hypothesis marriage cum migration contributes significantly to a reduction in the variability of household food consumption farm households afflicted with more variable profits tend to engage in longer distance marriage cum migration the hypothesized and observed marriage cum migration patterns are in dissonance with standard models of marriage or migration that are concerned primarily with search costs and static income gains

investment and competition this paper examines how industry structure affects corporate investment patterns real options theory shows that deferring irreversible investment in the face of uncertainty is valuable theory also shows that the value of waiting to invest falls if investment opportunities are contestable consistent with these theories we find that firms in monopolistic industries exhibit lower investment q sensitivity and are slower to invest than firms in competitive industries however we find that investment q sensitivity and investment speed are highest in oligopolistic industries suggesting that the value of investing strategically can outweigh the value of waiting indeed oligopolistic industries experience less entry and more exit than other industries

cropland allocation effects of agricultural input subsidies in malawi summary we measure the impacts of malawi s farm input subsidy program on the cropland allocation decisions of farmers in kasungu and machinga districts in central and southern malawi using a two step regression strategy to control for endogenous selection into the program we find positive correlations between participation in the program and the amount of land planted with maize and tobacco furthermore results suggest that participating households simplified crop production by allocating less land to other crops e g groundnuts soybeans and dry beans our findings have implications for policies aimed at promoting both food self sufficiency and crop diversification in low income settings 2011 elsevier ltd all rights reserved

indivisibilities lotteries and monetary exchange we introduce lotteries randomized trading into search theoretic models of money in a model with indivisible goods and fiat money we show goods trade with probability 1 and money trades with probability where 1 iff buyers have sufficient bargaining power with divisible goods a nonrandom quantity q trades with probability 1 and again money trades with probability where 1 iff buyers have sufficient bargaining power moreover q never exceeds the efficient quantity not true without lotteries we consider several extensions designed to get commodities as well as money to trade with probability less than 1 and to illuminate the efficiency role of lotteries