a subsector approach to small enterprise promotion and research abstract this paper introduces a diagnostic research methodology designed to help target small enterprise development efforts in less developed countries it argues that research should focus on commodity specific subsectors which include the competing channels and supporting input and output linkages of small firms using this approach analysts can improve their understanding of small enterprise dynamics interventions that may promote them at low cost and policies that constrain small firm growth

a conjectural variations model of reduced japanese milk price supports conjectural variations are estimated to determine the degree of imperfection in the japanese milk market estimated conjectural variations indicate that the japanese milk market is imperfectly competitive but is becoming more competitive our comparative static analysis indicates that when the milk support price is reduced the fluid milk price will decline less under the current imperfectly competitive structure than it would under a competitive structure

credit market constraints consumption smoothing and the accumulation of durable production assets in low income countries investments in bullocks in india in this paper we formulate and estimate a finite horizon structural dynamic model of agricultural investment behavior that incorporates the major features of low income agricultural environments income uncertainty constraints on borrowing and rental markets and the use of investment assets to generate income and smooth consumption the model is fit to longitudinal indian household data on farm profits bullock stocks and pump sets the estimated structural parameters are used to assess the effects on the life cycle accumulation of bullocks agricultural profits and welfare associated with complete markets and bullock liquidity and with second best policies that provide assured sources of income to farmers and weather insurance

old problems in the new solutions politically motivated allocation of program benefits and the new fertilizer subsidies summary fertilizer subsidies have been reinstituted in many african countries with innovations seeking to avoid the downsides of past programs the new subsidy paradigm however does not address how to curtail political manipulation which exacerbated inefficiencies of previous programs this paper analyzes whether politics affected voucher allocations in ghana s 2008 fertilizer subsidy program we find that more vouchers were targeted to districts that the ruling party had lost in the previous presidential elections and more so in districts that had been lost by a higher percentage margin this evidence shows that a significant threat to the efficiency of fertilizer subsidies remains

fertilizer trade under market liberalization preliminary evidence from kenya abstract this paper reports results of a study aimed at identifying broad demand side and supply side influences on trade in inorganic fertilizers in kenya where following decades of government control the fertilizer market has been fully liberalized multiple regression analysis using data from a country wide survey of fertilizer traders indicates that significant demand side factors include agroecological conditions and maize market prices in the regions in which fertilizer traders operate on the supply side the number of years in fertilizer trading and access to credit are important implications for policy and research are drawn

child labor and agricultural shocks this paper examines the relationship between household income shocks and child labor in particular we investigate the extent to which transitory income shocks lead to increases in child labor and whether household asset holdings mitigate the effects of these shocks using data from a household panel survey in tanzania we find that both relationships are significant we investigate mechanisms that could account for these results including buffer stocks and borrowing

the politics of liberalizing zambia s maize markets abstract this paper discusses the process of agricultural liberalization in zambia the central argument is that maize markets have been more quickly and fully liberalized than maize input markets because the perceived political risks of liberalizing input markets are greater than those of liberalizing maize markets and because economic interest groups benefited from maize liberalization while similar interests benefited from continued government interventions in input markets these finding imply that in order to understand the prospects for economic liberalization in new democracies we must disaggregate both civil society and markets

agricultural support policies in imperfectly competitive markets why market power matters in policy design most agricultural policy analysis assumes that markets are perfectly competitive despite increasing evidence to the contrary we demonstrate that the interaction of market power and government intervention may lead to outcomes that are counter to key results of policy analysis for perfectly competitive markets we show that market power may reduce or eliminate entirely the net welfare benefits from removing two traditional support mechanisms price floors and deficiency payments and may increase considerably the government s cost of implementing either of them accordingly optimally designed price support measures may improve welfare in the presence of downstream oligopoly and or oligopsony power copyright 2011 oxford university press

input subsidy programs in sub saharan africa a synthesis of recent evidence input subsidy programs have once again become a major plank of agricultural development strategies in africa ten african governments spend roughly us 1 billion annually on input subsidy programs isps amounting to 28 6 of their public expenditures on agriculture this article reviews the microlevel evidence on isps undertaken since the mid 2000s we examine the characteristics of subsidy beneficiaries crop response rates to fertilizer application and their influence on the performance of subsidy programs the impacts of subsidy programs on national fertilizer use and the development of commercial input distribution systems and finally the impact of isps on food price levels and poverty rates the weight of the evidence indicates that the costs of the programs generally outweigh their benefits findings from other developing areas with a higher proportion of crop area under irrigation and with lower fertilizer prices factors that should provide higher returns to fertilizer subsidies than in africa indicate that at least a partial reallocation of expenditures from fertilizer subsidies to r d and infrastructure would provide higher returns to agricultural growth and poverty reduction however because isps enable governments to demonstrate tangible support to constituents they are likely to remain on the african landscape for the foreseeable future hence the study identifies ways in which benefits can be enhanced through changes in implementation modalities and complementary investments within a holistic agricultural intensification strategy among the most important of these are efforts to reduce the crowding out of commercial fertilizer distribution systems and programs to improve soil fertility to enable farmers to use fertilizer more efficiently the challenges associated with achieving these gains are likely to be formidable

open loop and feedback models of dynamic oligopoly abstract a simple method of estimating the degree of oligopoly power in dynamic markets using either open loop or feedback subgame perfect strategies is developed new theoretical results are presented for families of oligopoly models differences between discrete time and continuoustime models and open loop and feedback models are demonstrated the effects of increasing the number of firms or adjustment costs are examined

of contracts and subcontracts small firms in vertically dis integrated production distribution systems in ldcs abstract the increasing complexity in production and distribution which accompanies development provides opportunities for small firms to participate by undertaking a limited range of activities in vertically dis integrated systems through subcontracting arrangements in addition to reducing costs in particular activities this facilitates the growth of production and distribution systems which are more complex than one integrated firm could manage or finance on its own for this pattern to work though contracting difficulties arising from market imperfections must be overcome alternative ways used by third world firms to solve these coordination problems are identified and policy implications suggested

non price strategic behavior the case of bank branches abstract we perform an empirical study of banks branching decisions as a strategic non price variable in an oligopolistic setting using panel data of banks from norway we find clear evidence that banks act strategically in their branching decisions taking into consideration the future response from rival banks the analysis is applied to a unique data set which covers the entire banking sector during both pre and post banking crisis periods where very different types of conduct are found in each of these periods both for banks and borrowers moreover we find that a bank specific branch network does not confer externality on other banks as a result branch network affects only market shares but not market size

an equilibrium displacement approach to oligopoly market analysis an application to trade in the korean infant formula market this article uses an equilibrium displacement model edm to assess the impact of a change in trade policy in the korean infant formula market that is assumed to be oligopolistic domestic oligopolists compete in a market for a homogenous good with importing firms who enjoy the same level of market power as the domestic producers within an edm framework we investigate how the market adjusts to a new equilibrium in response to an external policy shock that improves access to foreign goods our empirical work consists of two steps we first econometrically estimate the market demand elasticity and market power parameter then using these estimates we simulate our edm model to assess the distributional effects of tariff cuts and other changes in marginal cost simulation results show that with a lower market price and increased consumption the change in consumer surplus resulting from tariff reduction is unambiguously positive but that the change in social welfare can be in either direction depending on who receives market rents associated with imports when importing firms are domestic the domestic welfare change is definitely positive however in the case of foreign importing firms the direction of the welfare change crucially depends on the demand elasticity

measuring the degree of market power exerted by government trade agencies the principle of profit maximization is used to derive an equilibrium condition for noncompetitive markets and to provide explicit parametric tests for market power exerted in both domestic and foreign markets by a government trade agency our study goes beyond previous work by considering simultaneous exertion of market power in both domestic and foreign markets and by jointly estimating market power parameters with cost and demand parameters these innovations allow nested tests of market power as opposed to prevailing nonnested tests based on simulation models or conditional tests based on prior estimates of demand and cost parameters japan is found to exert a high degree of monopsony power in the world wheat market and no monopoly power in the domestic market

risk and insurance in a rural credit market an empirical investigation in northern nigeria credit contracts play a direct role in pooling risk between households in northern nigeria repayments owed by borrowers depend on realizations of random shocks by both borrowers and lenders the paper develops two models of state contingent loans the first is a competitive equilibrium in perfectly enforceable contracts the second permits imperfect information and equilibrium default estimates of both models indicate that quantitatively important state contingent payments are embedded in these loan transactions but that a fully efficient risk pooling equilibrium is not achieved the research is based on a year long survey in zaria nigeria conducted by the author

the fuelwood market in greece an empirical approach abstract wood has been since ancient times the basic household heating medium nowadays wood remains the primary energy source in rural areas of developing countries mainly in africa in greece the domestic demand of fuelwood is relied mainly on the fuelwood domestic supply especially during the post war period the domestic supply satisfies adequately the domestic demand eliminating the role of imports the present study surveys the long run relationship between the fuelwood prices of different forest species in order to determine the role of the special market conditions in their price formation in addition the error correction model is estimated in order to survey the direction of the granger causality among the prices of the fuelwood forest species the implementation of the impulse response analysis and the variance decomposition confirmed that coniferous and beech fuelwood producer price may account for the volatility of the oak fuelwood producer price this result may contribute greatly to the conservation of oak forest an important carbon storage forest ecosystem

the last mile s in modern input distribution pricing profitability and adoption increasing adoption of modern inputs remains one of the best hopes for greater agricultural production in developing countries based on unique data from northwestern ethiopia this study examines the last mile s from the input distribution center to the farmer in the chemical fertilizer and improved seed distribution system we find that increasing transaction and transportation costs over a 35 km distance along a route mainly accessible to only foot traffic lead to a 50 increase of the price of chemical fertilizer and to a 75 reduction in its use farmers who live about 10 km from the distribution center face per unit transaction and transportation costs as high as the costs needed to bring the fertilizer from the international port to the input distribution center about 1 000 km tackling the last mile s costs should thus be a priority to improve modern input adoption and use in these settings

policies to promote cereal intensification in ethiopia the search for appropriate public and private roles over the past decade policymakers have been searching for an appropriate blend of public and private sector roles to accelerate the intensification of food staple production smallholder commercialization and sustainable market development in sub saharan africa in ethiopia steps taken to liberalize markets in the 1990s and promote fertilizer and seed packages have yet to generate payoffs in terms of higher cereal yields lower food prices or reduced dependency on food aid this raises concern about the performance of the agricultural sector specifically in terms of the systems for providing improved seed fertilizer credit and extension services this paper examines the evolving roles of the public and private sectors in intensifying cereal production in ethiopia findings suggest that while ethiopia has an admirable record of supporting agriculture its state led policies has now outlived their usefulness these findings for ethiopia offer lessons that are potentially applicable to other sub saharan african countries facing similar challenges

household consumption smoothing through ethnic ties evidence from cote d ivoire abstract this paper investigates the hypothesis that households in cote d ivoire take part in spatially diversified risk sharing arrangements with members of their own ethnic group empirical tests are presented using several estimation methods to deal with heteroscedasticity measurement error and extreme value problems to examine whether results are robust across estimation procedures the hypothesis of complete risk sharing within ethnic groups is rejected however there appears to be some partial insurance performed by individual households with other members of the same ethnic group particularly for the households residing in the regions least likely to have access to formal financial arrangements

the new institutional economics and its applicability to development abstract the several remarkable developments in the social sciences which have come to be known as the new institutional economics nie have not yet been fully exploited for analyzing the determinants and effects of institutional change in the context of development this paper identifies two important components of the nie and illustrates both a potential complementarities between them and b their applicability to various problems and policies in the long term development of developing countries

the creation of dominant firm market power in the coconut oil export market legal and institutional changes that centralized control of the philippine coconut oil refining and exporting industries enabled the philippines to exercise some of its potential dominant firm market power if the elasticity of demand for coconut oil continues to increase in part due to concerns about the health risks from eating saturated fats philippine exports will increase slightly while the price and philippine revenue will fall significantly within the next decade

state conditional fertilizer yield response on western kenyan farms 15 16 17 we acknowledge with gratitude support from the rockefeller foundation the united states agency for 18 international development usaid leadership enhancement in agriculture program leap and the 19 coupled natural and human systems program of the biocomplexity initiative of the national science 20 foundation through grant bcs 0215890 the world agroforestry center icraf graciously hosted 21 the lead author for part of the research and provided soil test results we are also grateful to james

determinants of oligopsony power the haitian coffee case abstract this paper investigates the determinants of oligopsony power exerted by coffee exporters in haiti it develops and estimates a two equation model with cross parameter restrictions one equation for the lerner index of oligopsony and the other for the residual supply function facing exporters empirical results indicate that both institutional arrangements and domestic market conditions have significantly shaped oligopsony power

is consumption smooth at the cost of volatile leisure an investigation of rural india this study examines the institutions in rural india that enable households to insure against unanticipated idiosyncratic shocks to income using a decentralized general equilibrium model it tests for consumption and leisure insurance against unanticipated income shocks it is found that differential access to markets particularly financial markets force villagers to differ in their response to similar shocks medium and large farmers have unrestricted access to credit markets and are unaffected by unanticipated changes in household income the small farmers are excluded from credit markets however some of the small farmers are able to insure consumption against unanticipated income shocks through compensating changes in labour market participation and reducing own farm work

fertilizer market development a comparative analysis of ethiopia kenya and zambia abstract this article synthesizes case studies from kenya zambia and ethiopia to assess how differences in the implementation of fertilizer marketing policies have affected the costs and risks borne by marketing actors the investment response by private traders and fertilizer consumption financial cost accounting techniques indicate that domestic marketing costs account for 50 or more of farm gate prices the sum of importer wholesaler and retailer profit margins generally account for less than 10 there are opportunities to reduce domestic marketing costs through the following reducing port fees coordinating the timing of fertilizer clearance from the port with up country transport reducing transport costs through port rail and road improvements reducing high fuel taxes and reducing the uncertainty associated with government input distribution programs that impose additional marketing costs on traders estimated reductions in the farm gate price of fertilizer from implementing the full range of options identified in each country range from 11 to 18 price reductions of this magnitude if passed along to farmers would increase farmers effective demand for fertilizer investments in selected publically provided goods often considered outside the scope of fertilizer marketing policy per se strongly affect the costs of fertilizer farmers willingness to pay for it and hence the performance of markets

the production and inventory behavior of the american automobile industry understanding inventory movements is central to an understanding of business cycles this paper presents an empirical study of the behavior of inventories in the automobile industry it finds that inventory behavior is well explained by the assumption of intertemporal optimization with rational expectations the underlying cost structure appears to have substantial costs of changing production as well as substantial costs of being away from target inventory thelatter being a function of current sales given this cost structure whether inventory behavior is stabilizing or destabilizing depends on the characteristics of the demand process in the automobile industry inventory behavior is destabilizing the variance of production is larger than the variance of sales

the rural non farm economy prospects for growth and poverty reduction summary policy makers have high expectations for the rural non farm economy rnfe given high income shares growing employment and frequently low capital requirements they see the rnfe as a potential pathway out of poverty for their rural poor yet available evidence suggests that pro poor rural non farm growth does not occur automatically for the poor to benefit from rural non farm growth policy makers must stimulate buoyant rural economies with robust non farm income growth not simply low productivity employment moreover the poor must gain access to growing market niches fluid labor markets provide one important bridge linking the rural poor to growing non farm opportunities

the effects of risk on education in indonesia abstract we study the effects of risk and uncertainty on education in indonesia households that face more uncertainty and that have limited or no access to formal insurance will have a higher motive for self insurance and this may have adverse consequences for investment in child education a key contribution of the article is to decompose risk into village and household level components and to estimate whether they have different effects on education we find no evidence of household risk affecting child education however there is evidence that village risk adversely affects investment in education

agroindustrialization of the global agrifood economy bridging development economics and agribusiness research this paper examines the agroindustrialization process from two supposedly disparate views development economics and agribusiness research the evolution of conceptual and methodological approaches emanating from these fields is explored and general observations are made concerning farm economic interdependence institutional and organizational change differing scopes of interest the causes of agroindustrialization orientation and the choice of microanalytic tools terminology and unit of analysis despite an impressive list of hurdles disincentives and disconnects complementarities between the two fields are identified the paper concludes by exploring the potential of bridging development economics and agribusiness research to inform the future agroindustrialization research agenda

testing efficient risk sharing with heterogeneous risk preferences previous papers have tested e cient risk sharing under the assumption of identical risk preferences in this paper we show that if in the data households have heterogeneous risk preferences the tests proposed in the past reject e ciency even if households share risk e ciently to address this issue we propose a method that enables one to test e ciency even when households have difierent preferences for risk the method is composed of three tests the flrst one can be used to determine whether in the data under investigation households have homogeneous risk preferences the second and third test can be used to evaluate e cient risk sharing when the hypothesis of homogeneous risk preferences is rejected we use this method to test e cient risk sharing in rural india using the flrst test we strongly reject the hypothesis of identical risk preferences we then test e ciency with and without the assumption of preference homogeneity in the flrst case we reject e cient risk sharing at the village and caste level in the second case we still reject e ciency at the village level but we cannot reject this hypothesis at the caste level this flnding suggests that the relevant risk sharing unit in rural india is the caste and not the village

income smoothing and consumption smoothing one way that risk averse households protect consumption levels is to borrow and use insurance mechanisms another way common in low income economies is to diversify economic activities and make conservative production and employment choices households thus tend toward limiting exposure only to shocks that can be handled with available credit and insurance typically both types of mechanisms are studied independently but much more can be learned by studying them together first we obtain a more complete picture of risks costs and insurance possibilities second it opens the way to considering biases in standard tests of credit and insurance

asset smoothing consumption smoothing and the reproduction of inequality under risk and subsistence constraints abstract a growing literature asks whether low wealth agents can accumulate assets over time or whether they are trapped in poverty this paper develops a stochastic dynamic programming model with endogenous asset price risk to explore savings and portfolio decisions in a resource poor environment characterized by risk and subsistence constraints optimal portfolio strategies are found to bifurcate despite divisible assets and fully rational agents wealthier agents acquire a higher yielding portfolio and pursue conventional consumption smoothing poorer agents acquire a less remunerative portfolio and pursue asset smoothing rather than consumption smoothing asset based risk coping thus results in positive correlation between initial wealth and portfolio rate of return

dynamic oligopoly in the rice export market a linear quadratic dynamic oligopoly model is used to estimate the competitiveness of the rice export market the model nests various market structures using either open loop or feedback strategies the estimated feedback model implies a less competitive market structure than the estimated open loop model the rice export market is oligopolistic but it is closer to competitive than collusive copyright 1989 by mit press

measuring market power in food processing industries discussion focuses on the measurement of market power in the beef processing industry in the united states causal linkage between concentrated industrial structure and antisocial economic performance structure conduct performance paradigm basic model for fed cattle studies

dynamic duopolistic competition with sticky prices the authors study duopolistic competition in a homogeneous good through time under the assumption that its current desirability is an exponentially weighted function of accumulated past consumption this implies that the current price of the good does not decline by as much to accommodate any given level of current consumption our an alysis is conducted in terms of a differential game it is found that the equilibrium price corresponding to the open loop nash equilibriu m strategies approaches the static cournot equilibrium price while th e equilibrium price corresponding to the closed loop nash equilibrium strategies which are subgame perfect approaches a price below it copyright 1987 by the econometric society

can public private partnerships leverage private investment in agricultural value chains in africa a preliminary review summary public private partnerships ppps may be one way of increasing the level of private sector investment into poorly performing agricultural value chains this paper considers a range of ppp mechanisms that respond to different market failures affecting such chains and draws on principal agent theory to illustrate the challenges it reviews emerging experience with a number of these mechanisms along with experience from other sectors that may shed light on generic problems of implementing ppps in africa while finding some positive impacts on investment it notes that state failures can also undermine ppp effectiveness as the evidence base is still limited it calls on organizations promoting innovative ppps to disclose available information for critical examination

consumption insurance an evaluation of risk bearing systems in low income economies the hypothesis of full risk sharing can be taken to data from low income countries and evaluate formal and informal financial systems in many contexts idiosyncratic risks are high so credit insurance arrangements could be beneficial statistical tests reveal that households in southern india take advantage of these possibilities villages in cote d ivoire and countries in thailand do not do as well the paper includes an empirical description of the devices used to smooth consumption and a theoretical discussion of private information and incentives on ideal operating systems the full information and mechanism design frameworks provide benchmarks for policy analysis

domestic price stabilization schemes in developing countries preoccupation with the presumed adverse effects of price instability has led developing countries to establish a wide variety of mechanisms to stabilize domestic prices not only of internationally traded goods but of nontraded goods as well however despite the ubiquity of such schemes and the obvious importance with which price stabilization is regarded the development literature is virtually mute on their characteristics and how they have performed in this article we discuss the topic of domestic price stabilization programs in a comparative cross country context we do not examine here the question of whether instability has adverse or positive economic effects as a burgeoning literature continues to debate this issue rather we take as given that stabilization is a desideratum of virtually all governments in the developing world our goals are to describe some of the characteristics of the different schemes used to stabilize

peasant household behaviour with missing markets some paradoxes explained a model of peasant household behavior under varying degrees of household specific food and labor market failures is constructed to show that these structural features can explain several well known patterns of peasant response which have often been attributed to peculiar motives presumed specific to peasants the model explains sluggish response to cash crops prices and high instability in perceived food and labor scarcities the key role of manufactured consumer goods prices in stimulating peasants effort in cash crops production the effectiveness of taxation as opposed to incentives in stimulating cash crops production and the key role of technological change in food production to enhance cash crop production results are obtained analytically in the case of one market failure and by numerical simulation with more than one

soil quality and fertilizer use rates among smallholder farmers in western kenya studies of fertilizer use in sub saharan africa have been dominated by analyses of economic and market factors having to do with infrastructure institutions and incentives that prevent or foster increased fertilizer demand largely ignoring how soil fertility status conditions farmer demand for fertilizer we apply a switching regression model to data from 260 farm households in western kenya in order to allow for the possibility of discontinuities in fertilizer demand based on a soil carbon content scc threshold we find that the usual factors reflecting liquidity and quasi fixed inputs are important on high scc plots but not on those with poorer soils external inputs become less effective on soils with low scc hence the discernible shift in behaviors across soil quality regimes for many farmers improved fertilizer market conditions alone may be insufficient to stimulate increased fertilizer use without complementary improvements in the biophysical conditions that affect conditional factor demand

wealth weather risk and the composition and profitability of agricultural investments despite the growing evidence that farmers in low income environments are risk averse there has been little empirical evidence on the importance of risk in shaping the actual allocation of production resources among farmers differentiated by wealth the authors use panel data on investments in rural india to examine how the composition of productive and nonproductive asset holdings varies across farmers with different levels of total wealth and across farmers facing different degrees of weather risk income variability is a prominent feature of the experience of rural agents in low income countries the authors report evidence based on measures of rainfall variability that the agricultural investment portfolio behavior of farmers in such settings reflects risk aversion due evidently to limitations on consumption soothing mechanisms such as crop insurance or credit markets the authors results suggest that uninsured weather risk is a significant cause of lower efficiency and lower average incomes a one standard deviation decrease in weather risk measured by the standard deviation of the timing of the rainy season would raise average profits by up to 35 percent among farmers in the lowest wealth quartile moreover rainfall variability induces a more unequal distribution of average incomes for a given distribution of wealth wealthier farmers are willing to absorb significant risk without giving up profits to reduce production risk smaller farmers have to invest their limited wealth in ways that reduce their exposure to risk at the cost of lower profit rates the authors found that at high levels of rainfall variability differences in rates of profit per unit of agricultural assets were similar across classes of wealth but over the sample range of rainfall variability these rates of profit were always higher for the poorer farmers than for the wealthier ones suggesting that the disadvantages of small farmers in risk diffusion are more than offset by their labor cost advantage

market concentration and pricing behavior in the fertilizer industry a global approach the global fertilizer industry is a market with high and increasing levels of concentration and trade low income regions such as sub saharan africa are highly dependent on imported fertilizer and the landed price of imports at the port of entry usually represents a large fraction of the fertilizer supply costs in these regions this article formally examines the relationship between market concentration and prices from a global perspective we follow a dynamic panel approach using annual data on urea for a panel of countries and observe that prices are generally higher in more concentrated markets using different measures of concentration and model specifications based on additional simulations we find that a 10 increase in competition could increase fertilizer use by 13 19 and rural incomes by 1 2 in regions like sub saharan africa overall the results highlight the need to further examine the pricing behavior and potential market power exertion of major global producers which can help to better understand the industry supply chain in developing countries and provide additional insights into the design of policies including input subsidy programs intended to promote long term fertilizer adoption

post uruguay round price linkages between developed and developing countries the case of rice and wheat markets the uruguay round agreement on agriculture attempted to lower distortions in global agricultural markets however the significant fall in commodity prices in the late 1990s may have reduced the incentives for both developed and developing countries to better integrate into world markets this study analyzes price linkages and adjustment between developed and developing countries during the post uruguay round period prices of two key commodities long grain rice and medium hard wheat are assembled for major exporters and producers results of multivariate cointegration analysis suggest partial market integration between developed and developing countries in the post uruguay round period developed countries are found to be price leaders in these two markets and in most cases changes in their prices have relatively large impacts on those of the developing countries developing countries e g vietnam and argentina have faced considerable price adjustment due to changes in the developed countries prices

the unbanked evidence from indonesia to analyze the prospects for expanding financial access to the poor bank professionals assessed 1 438 households in six provinces in indonesia to judge their creditworthiness about 40 percent of poor households were judged creditworthy according to the criteria of indonesia s largest microfinance bank but fewer than 10 percent had recently borrowed from a micro bank or formal lender possessing collateral appeared as a minor determinant of creditworthiness in keeping with microfinance innovations although these households were judged able to service loans reliably most desired small loans calculations show that the bank given its current fee structure and banking practices will lose money when lending at the scales desired so while innovations have helped to extend financial access it remains difficult to lend in small amounts and cover costs

investment and market power abstract this paper argues that the degree of market power within an industry is an important determinant of interindustry differences in investment behavior a neoclassical investment model is analyzed to show that market power is positively associated with capital stock flexibility the intuition for the result is that firms adjust their stocks and investment plans quickly in response to new conditions so as to capture the rents asssociated with their market power

collective efficiency growth path for small scale industry this study is concerned with the growth of small local industry in developing countries and explores one particular route for understanding and fostering such growth it focuses on the clustering of firms and the competitive advantage which they derive from local external economies and joint action captured in the concept of collective efficiency following a conceptual discussion the article explores the economic and institutional conditions which enhance or hinder collective efficiency this includes a case study which suggests that responding to opportunity and crisis requires shifting from mere reliance on external economies to joint action and from ascribed to earned trust

growth and barriers to growth among nairobi s small and medium sized garment producers abstract few of nairobi s small and medium sized garment enterprises actually grow understanding why this should be so requires recognition both of their common problems and of the variations in their organization and market relations two factors appear critical for the growth of all of the producers demand for new clothing and the firm s initial capital other growth constraints differ according to the type of firm space constraints are highlighted as especially important for businesses presently operating in market stalls the design of policy and donor interventions needs to consider both the commonalities and the differences among firms

the dynamics of micro and small enterprises in developing countries abstract the number of people engaged in micro and small enterprises increases as a result of new enterprises being started and through an expansion of existing activities as a partial offset to these increases employment declines when existing businesses cease operations this article draws on recent survey work to examine the magnitude and determinants of enterprise births closures and expansions it explores the ways in which these different sources of change are influenced by the state of the macroeconomy and examines policy and project implications

risk and insurance in village india comment the protection of poor households in high risk agrarian economies from shocks to their incomes has often been seen as a compelling motive for various forms of policy intervention including transfers of cash or food credit subsidies and public employment schemes for a survey see lipton and ravallion 1995 the desirability of such safety net policies clearly depends on how well pre existing risk sharing arrangements work while it is commonly thought that without effective policy intervention rural households are vulnerable to village wide shocks such as adverse prices or poor rains it is less clear to what extent risk sharing institutions within the village mitigate the effects of idiosyncratic income risk stemming for instance from ill health or localized crop damage 2 several recent papers have used household level data to implement tests of risk sharing that might inform such concerns 3 these tests are based on the proposition that with perfect risk sharing consumption at the household level should be insured against idiosyncratic risks and thus depend solely on the realization of the aggregate risk wilson 1968 diamond 1967 townsend 1994 tests this implication of perfect intra village risk sharing using longitudinal household data on consumptions and incomes for three villages in india he reports that the full insurance hypothesis provides a surprisingly good benchmark in that household consumptions co move and do not appear to be much influenced by contemporaneous own income our aim here is to examine the robustness of this potentially important finding we have two main concerns the first is that the specification townsend adopts potentially biases his test towards the null hypothesis of full insurance because it yields inconsistent estimates of the key test parameter under a plausible alternative we therefore estimate a different specification that generates consistent estimates under both the null and the alternative our second concern is that a particular form of measurement error in the consumption data townsend uses may have further biased his results toward the null hypothesis of full insurance to address this concern we use an instrumental variables procedure when we implement the test of consumption insurance with townsend s consumption data we also re estimate the test equations with a measure of consumption derived from the same underlying primary data by an alternate method finally townsend reports 1discussions with robert townsend stimulated our interest in this investigation the staff of the

using weather variability to estimate the response of savings to transitory income in thailand this paper measures the extent to which farmers are able to use savings and dissavings to smooth consumption in response to unexpected shocks to income time series information on regional rainfall is used to construct estimates of transitory income due to rainfall shocks the relationship between these measures of transitory income and savings indicates that farm households save a significantly higher fraction of transitory income than nontransitory income jel d91 016 the incomes of farm households in developing countries are notorious for being both low and uncertain policies that increase the incomes of farmers may well be different

dynamic relationships between us and thai rice prices abstract relationships between the united states department of agriculture s usda estimated world market price the thai milled rice price us transportation adjusted cash rough rice price and the chicago rice and cotton exchange rough rice futures price are examined for the 1987 1991 marketing years specifically a cointegration analysis is used to address the pricing and informational efficiency of the respective markets testing indicates the system is described by two cointegrating vectors the analysis preformed herein provides insight into the pricing performance of several world rice markets

poverty status and the impact of formal credit on technology use and wellbeing among ethiopian smallholders summary this paper examines the impact of formal credit largely microfinance on the use of improved technology and on consumption and asset growth across households in different degrees of asset poverty using data from rural ethiopia the analysis finds no relationship between participation in microfinance programs and the use of technologies or consumption growth among the poorest households even though the use of certain technologies like fertilizer contributes to their asset accumulation over time for other households microfinance has positive effects on both consumption and asset growth as well as on the use of improved technology the findings imply variation in constraints faced by different classes of poor households and suggest the value of asset based poverty classifications in identifying target groups for poverty interventions

growth options and poverty reduction in ethiopia an economy wide model analysis abstract this study focuses on which agricultural subsectors are important in ethiopia s economic growth and poverty reduction and what kind of agricultural and nonagricultural growth is needed to achieve the millennium development goal of halving the incidence of poverty by 2015 a spatially disaggregated economy wide model was developed enabling the analysis of growth and poverty reduction linkages at national and regional levels using national household surveys agricultural sample surveys geographic information systems and other national and regional data the study reveals that agriculture can play a central role in decreasing poverty and increasing growth in ethiopia within the agriculture growth in cereals and other staple crops should receive priority agricultural growth also requires concurrent investments in roads and other market conditions at the subnational level similar growth rates within agricultural subsectors have different effects on poverty necessitating regionally based strategies for growth and poverty reduction

smoothing consumption by smoothing income hours of work responses to idiosyncratic agricultural shocks in rural india while research has demonstrated that farm households in developing economies are able to protect consumption from idiosyncratic crop shocks little evidence shows how this is achieved this paper examines the extent to which labor markets allow households to shift labor from farm to off farm employment and the extent to which such a shift explains the observed lack of correlation between consumption and idiosyncratic crop shocks the empirical analysis uses a novel measure of the idiosyncratic crop income shock which utilizes information on start of season cropping choices to more accurately estimate household expectations of weather

expanding access to agricultural inputs in africa a review of recent market development experience abstract this paper asks what can be done to expand input use in africa and can it be done in a manner that supports continued growth of private sector input markets the precarious food security situation in many african countries has prompted governments and donors to use input distribution or credit programs as a means of rapidly increasing food supply for the poor these efforts however often reduce the ability of input market development programs to stimulate commercial interest in input supply a review of both types of programs describes recent efforts to address constraints to expanded input use and finds that further expansion is often constrained by inadequate investment in a variety of public goods needed to stimulate input led agricultural intensification rather than continuing to invest resources in programs to provide inputs or credit directly to farmers governments with donor assistance should consider shifting their focus to the serious deficiencies in the provision of public goods roads irrigation basic education market information systems research and extension and improved institutions contract law and enforcement systems of grades and standards improvements in these areas can both lower costs of supply and increase farm level demand creating a situation where the private sector will have greater incentives to expand input distribution networks to zones and farmers who currently do not have access

input use and market development in sub saharan africa an overview abstract this paper sets forth the background and objectives of this special issue trends in input use since 1980 are reviewed and a conceptual framework is presented for analyzing problems of input use and formulating strategies for resolving them reasons for low levels of fertilizer use by smallholder farmers are summarized briefly the essential points of the papers in the special issue and their implications for further expansion of input use in sub saharan africa are then outlined

capacity investment preemption and commitment in an infinite horizon model the commitment value of capacity is analyzed in an infinite horizon duopoly model the paper focuses on the role of alternative behavioral assumptions about the ability of firms to commit to investment paths each firm s investment strategy in a feedback nash equilibrium is shown to be a decreasing function of its rival s current capacity this creates an incentive for a firm to expand its capacity to preempt subsequent rival investment in a precommitment equilibrium there are no incentives to invest preemptively as a consequence steady state capacity levels are greater in a feedback nash equilibrium than in a precommitment equilibrium copyright 1987 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

incorporating finance into a modified subsector framework the fertilizer subsector in the gambia abstract the subsector analytical framework as currently employed is usually limited to examining a subsector in a single market product or input the framework often excludes an explicit analysis of financial markets due to the assumptions that they function in a competitive environment or are considered less important than other features of the subsector these assumptions are inappropriate in most developing countries where financial markets are imperfect and access to financial services is rationed this paper proposes a modified subsector framework that incorporates the financial markets affecting a given subsector to more fully explain operational efficiency and market technology the framework is used to study the fertilizer subsector in the gambia

education in a crisis abstract the year 1998 saw the onset of a major economic and financial crisis in indonesia gdp fell by 12 that year the effect on education of the next generation is examined on average household spending on education declined most dramatically among the poorest households spending reductions were particularly marked in poor households with more young children while there was a tendency to protect education spending in poor households with more older children the evidence on school enrollments mirrors these findings poor households apparently sought to protect investments in the schooling of older children at the expense of the education of younger children

growth constraints on small scale manufacturing in developing countries a critical review abstract the question raised in this review is whether small scale producers in developing countries can expand or whether they are up against constraints which stunt their growth most of the literature has been optimistic on this score while internal constraints e g lack of managerial ability or external constraints e g discrimination from government are identified expansion is seen as an open ended process in other contributions this view has been severely criticized some allege that the small producers are exploited through various mechanisms others suggest that their road to expansion is blocked as a result of factors such as the pre existence of very advanced technology the control of large firms over product markets or difficulties in access to raw materials in discussing the arguments put forward in the debate an attempt is made to assess their theoretical bases and examine the extent to which they are supported empirically while most studies express explicitly or implicitly a definite view on the growth potential of small producers such judgement is rarely based on a comprehensive examination of the context which determines this potential

do input subsidy programs crowd in or crowd out commercial market development modeling fertilizer demand in a two channel marketing system many governments in developing countries distribute fertilizer at subsidized prices in an effort to stimulate small farmers agricultural productivity and food security prior fertilizer demand studies have largely failed to account for the effects of government programs on farmers commercial purchases using a double hurdle model and nationally representative rural household panel data in zambia we distinguish between these sources and measure the contemporaneous crowding in and crowding out effects of government input programs on commercial fertilizer sales where the private sector is relatively active and average wealth is higher areas seemingly more likely to be targeted by government programs results indicate that subsidies have substantially crowded out the private sector in some cases to the point that such programs could actually lower overall fertilizer use on the other hand in poorer areas where the private sector is relatively inactive subsidies help to generate demand and crowd in private sector retailers empirical studies explicitly modeling farmers fertilizer purchase behavior within a dual marketing framework can provide important insights for agricultural policy discussions in developing countries

household responses to economic and demographic shocks marginal logit analysis using indonesian data abstract we analyse the responses of indonesian households to demographic and economic shocks and examine how these responses vary in relation to the household s permanent income and the extent to which the shock is common across the community households respond in different ways to demographic and economic shocks economic shocks are more likely to result in a labour supply response from the household and this probability is further increased if the shock is common for rural households use of savings increases with permanent income the article also examines the role of the interviewer in influencing survey responses

the future of small farms new directions for services institutions and intermediation summary efficient pre and post harvest services are essential if small farms in high potential areas are to intensify production contribute to economic growth and reduce poverty they also matter if small farms in marginal areas are to manage their natural resource base in the face of growing population pressure and climate change difficulties that smallholders face in accessing services are reviewed showing how incentives for commercial delivery of services to smallholders differ between staple food traditional cash crop and high value product supply chains the major challenge in service delivery to smallholders in much of africa concerns coordination of service development and delivery different forms of intermediary institution for achieving such coordination are examined

simulating soil fertility and poverty dynamics in uganda a bio economic multi agent systems approach declining soil fertility and increasing rural poverty are major problems facing sub saharan agriculture bio economic modeling has been used to analyze the complex interaction between ecological sustainability and rural poverty as well as to explore policy options promoting sustainable development this paper shows that these models can be further advanced by adopting an agent based modeling approach this gives a more realistic representation of diversity in socioeconomic and biophysical terms allows local interaction between households and can yield an ex ante assessment of the distributional consequences of policy intervention this paper describes the modeling approach and illustrates it with an empirical application to two village communities in the lake victoria crescent of uganda it is shown how the model system can be calibrated with and validated against empirical data the model is used to analyze the potential effect of short term credit mineral fertilizer and improved maize seed on poverty and sustainability simulation results suggest substantial reductions in poverty although the incidence of poverty would remain high and these innovations alone would have little effect on the long term ecological sustainability of the system

saving risk sharing and preferences for risk saving decisions are made jointly by household members who generally earn risky incomes consequently to interpret saving patterns it is crucial to analyze the relationship between intrahousehold risk sharing and intertemporal choices to that end in this paper the household is characterized as a group of agents with possibly heterogeneous preferences making efficient decisions two results are obtained first it is shown that risk sharing can increase the amount saved by the household second i find that an increase in risk aversion and prudence of an individual member can reduce household risk aversion and prudence these results are consistent with the empirical evidence collected using the hrs

what ever happened to poverty alleviation abstract the failure of many programs directed toward alleviating poverty is better understood than the successes this paper identifies the traits that characterize several better performing programs funded by the ford foundation traits that are not commonly found in such programs all focused narrowly on a particular trade or activity in the beginning used credit as an entry point started by brokering loans rather than lending directly and had leadership linked to powerful institutions participants were already engaged in the economic activities supported by the programs marketing channels existed and powerful consumer groups were often in favor of production by beneficiary groups though these findings seem obvious few programs funded by donors display these characteristics suggesting that donors choose programs and organizations more carefully and not limit their funding to the nongovernmental sector

small firms and their helpers lessons on demand abstract small enterprise se programs are currently the rage because of their potential to create employment they are typically supply driven providing standardized training technical assistance credit but most cases of se based growth have involved demand driven support provided by large customers firms traders government agencies state enterprises this article argues that such inherently customized support constitutes a better way to deliver services to ses and is more likely to stimulate sustained se growth with respect to se favoring procurement by government in particular we show that this can be done without running up against the problems of similar attempts in the past and in a way that also reduces the costs of running government we draw for illustration from a successful case of se favoring procurement in the brazilian state of ceara

small industry in developing countries a discussion of issues abstract this paper first examines the changing size distribution of industry in developing countries by region and over time and by reference to firm level surveys it discusses the underlying causes the importance of markets generated by the growth of agriculture and rural incomes for the regional development of industry both small and large scale is noted second it discusses the entrepreneurship issue arguing that while small and largefirms alike are highly responsive to the growth of markets the measured entrepreneurial response is neither as full nor as efficient as is desirable the third and last part discusses small industry programmes and their relation to development policy financing and extension programmes are considered in detail and there is a discussion of the risks involved some parallels with agricultural credit are discussed in particular the default problem and the problems associated with concessionary finance it is also argued that small industries and by implication the programmes intended to support them would stand to benefit from more efficient and also more labour demanding policies towards agriculture and industry