total factor carbon emission performance of the chinese transportation industry a bootstrapped non radial malmquist index analysis this paper proposes a non radial malmquist co2 emission performance index nmcpi for measuring dynamic changes in total factor co2 emission performance over time this index enables the consideration of non radial slacks in the conventional malmquist co2 emission index mcpi the nmcpi is calculated based on a non radial directional distance function derived by several data envelopment analysis dea models furthermore nmcpi could be decomposed into an efficiency change ec index and technological change tc index a bootstrapping approach is conducted to introduce statistical inferences into the nmcpi and its decompositions based on the proposed indices the dynamic co2 emission performance change and its decompositions of the chinese regional transportation industry from 2002 to 2010 are investigated the empirical results demonstrate that the total factor carbon emission performance of the transportation industry as a whole decreased by 32 8 over the period and this reduction was primarily caused by technological decline

a note on the malmquist productivity index in recent years the malmquist index has gained in popularity as a measure of productivity change we demonstrate that in the presence of non constant returns to scale the malmquist productivity index does not accurately measure productivity change the bias is systematic and depends on the magnitude of scale economies

convergence in oecd countries technical change efficiency and productivity the aim of this study is to analyse labour productivity convergence in the oecd countries over the period 1975 90 a nonparametric frontier approach is used to calculate the malmquist productivity index by breaking it down the contribution in the growth of labour productivity of technical progress of changes in efficiency and of the accumulation of inputs per worker are quantified unlike other studies the results obtained show that technical change has worked against labour productivity convergence since it has always been greater in the countries with higher labour productivity

modeling and forecasting electricity prices with input output hidden markov models in competitive electricity markets in addition to the uncertainty of exogenous variables such as energy demand water inflows and availability of generation units and fuel costs participants are faced with the uncertainty of their competitors behavior the analysis of electricity price time series reflects a switching nature related to discrete changes in competitors strategies which can be represented by a set of dynamic models sequenced together by a markov chain an input output hidden markov model iohmm is proposed for analyzing and forecasting electricity spot prices the model provides both good predictions in terms of accuracy as well as dynamic information about the market in this way different market states are identified and characterized by their more relevant explanatory variables moreover a conditional probability transition matrix governs the probabilities of remaining in the same state or changing to another whenever a new market session is opened the model has been successfully applied to real clearing prices in the spanish electricity market

productivity growth and biased technological change in hydroelectric dams abstract this paper analyses productivity growth and the nature of technical change in a sample of portuguese hydroelectric generating plants over the period 2001 to 2008 in a first step we employ the luenberger productivity indicator to estimate and decompose productivity change a malmquist productivity index is also used for a comparative purpose the results paint a picture of mixed productivity performance in the portuguese energy sector the first decomposition underlines that in average the productivity variation is explained by the technological change then in a second step we analyse the nature of this technical change by using the recent concept of parallel neutrality briec et al 2006 we observe a global shift in the best practice frontier as well as in the evidence of input bias in technical change

mixed models for short run forecasting of electricity prices application for the spanish market short run forecasting of electricity prices has become necessary for power generation unit schedule since it is the basis of every profit maximization strategy in this article a new and very easy method to compute accurate forecasts for electricity prices using mixed models is proposed the main idea is to develop an efficient tool for one step ahead forecasting in the future combining several prediction methods for which forecasting performance has been checked and compared for a span of several years also as a novelty the 24 hourly time series has been modelled separately instead of the complete time series of the prices this allows one to take advantage of the homogeneity of these 24 time series the purpose of this paper is to select the model that leads to smaller prediction errors and to obtain the appropriate length of time to use for forecasting these results have been obtained by means of a computational experiment a mixed model which combines the advantages of the two new models discussed is proposed some numerical results for the spanish market are shown but this new methodology can be applied to other electricity markets as well

bureaucratic behavior modeled by reduced rank regression the case of expenditures from the soviet state budget abstract a bureaucratic hierarchy compresses information flowing upward and disaggregates directives passing downward thus making itself amenable to modeling by reduced rank regression applying this technique to the soviet government we find that about eight latent variables are required to characterize the mapping of predetermined variables into a vector of budgetary expenditures the latent variables can be interpreted as targets for expenditures in high priority sectors

total factor productivity and the measurement of technological change tfp is interpreted in the literature in different mutually contradictory ways changes in tfp are shown to measure not technological change only the super normal returns to investing in such change returns that exceed the full opportunity cost of the activity thus in the limit technological change can proceed with unchanged tfp measuring the effects of technological change instead requires counterfactual estimates reasons why changes in tfp are imperfect measures of super normal returns are also studied reasons connected with the timing of output responses the treatment of r d in the national accounts the omission of resource inputs and two types of aggregation la productivite totale des facteurs et la mesure du changement technologique la productivite totale des facteurs ptf est interpretee dans la litterature de manieres differentes et mutuellement contradictoires on montre que les changements dans la ptf ne mesurent pas le changement technologique mais seulement les rendements supra normaux sur les investissements dans de tels changements des rendements qui depassent le plein cout d opportunite de cette activite donc a la limite le changement technologique peut proceder sans que la ptf change mesurer les effets du changement technique reclame des evaluations d hypotheses de rechange les raisons pour lesquelles les changements dans la ptf sont des mesures imparfaites des rendements supra normaux sont aussi etudiees raisons connectees avec la reponse des niveaux de production le traitement de la r d dans les comptes nationaux l omission des intrants de ressources et deux types d agregation

has china s fast industrial growth been efficient an industry level investigation with a newly constructed data set we adopt contemporaneous nonradial and variable returns to scale assumptions in a data envelopment analysis dea exercise to address the inefficiency problem in chinese industries in different policy regimes using a newly constructed data set for 24 chinese manufacturing industries in 1952 2008 while confirming that the central planning period was indeed a graveyard for productivity that entailed severe technical regress and efficiency losses we do not find a steady improvement in efficiency during the reform period despite strong technical progress we argue that the resurgent prominence of the government and the state sector since the late 1990s especially following china s world trade organization accession has obstructed the efficiency improvement

an adaptive wavelet neural network based energy price forecasting in electricity markets in a competitive electricity market an accurate forecasting of energy prices is an important activity for all the market participants either for developing bidding strategies or for making investment decisions an adaptive wavelet neural network awnn is proposed in this paper for short term price forecasting stpf in the electricity markets a commonly used mexican hat wavelet has been chosen as the activation function for hidden layer neurons of feed forward neural network ffnn to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach day ahead prediction of market clearing price mcp of spain market which is a duopoly market with a dominant player and locational marginal price lmp forecasting in pjm electricity market are considered the forecasted results clearly show that awnn has good prediction properties compared to other forecasting techniques such as wavelet arima multi layer perceptron mlp and radial basis function rbf neural networks as well as recently proposed fuzzy neural network fnn

exploring the green total factor productivity of china s metallurgical industry under carbon tax a perspective on factor substitution abstract the characteristics of high emissions and high energy consumption in metallurgical industry have brought great challenges to the green and low carbon transition in china as a low carbon economic instrument carbon tax is generally considered to be an effective way to reduce co2 emissions through raising energy cost but whether it will promote the green total factor productivity gtfp of china s metallurgical industry is still unanswered under this background this paper uses provincial panel data over years 2000 2015 to investigate the impact of carbon taxation on gtfp of metallurgical industry from the perspective of inter fuel and inter factor substitution the lock in mechanism is also incorporated in the three stage estimation model to better reflect the asymmetric price response of factors and fuels the results reveal that the slow marketization process of energy price and the rigid demand for energy in china s metallurgical industry hinder the substitution effect of energy the implementation of carbon tax has limited effect on energy saving and co2 reduction in the metallurgical industry of china and levying a carbon tax has a negative effect on gtfp during the research period therefore the government should not achieve co2 reduction targets at the expense of green economic growth gtfp is suggested to be considered in future assessment criteria in the process of transforming to low carbon economy

measuring sectoral productivity across time and across countries abstract this paper examines the problem of measuring the evolution of productivity changes over time and across the 14 countries included in the oecd s international sectoral data base of two sectors considered essential to the economic growth of any nation namely manufacturing and services the basic units of analysis are generalized malmquist productivity indices these in turn can be decomposed into several components associated to the various sources of productivity change included here are productivity fluctuations due to economies of scale being constant or variable to technical change and technical efficiency change the computational procedure is based upon the concept of distance function computed through the use of variations of data envelopment analysis

models and estimation of disequilibrium for centrally planned economies the planned level of output is an important variable in modelling centrally planned economies and the present paper discusses several disequilibrium models in which the plan level is an endogenous variable a key relationship in such a model is the plan adjustment equation which is the counterpart of the usual priceadjustment equation employed in models of free economies seemingly minor differences in assumptions lead to markedly different econometric models the coherency properties of these are studied and several likelihood functions are derived the most complex of the models includes both endogenous plan levels and endogenous prices

the sources of productivity change in spanish banking abstract in this paper we examine the pattern of productivity change in spanish banking over the period 1986 1993 two sectors dominate spanish banking commercial banks and the faster growing savings banks we begin by examining productivity change separately within each sector however since the two sectors are gradually becoming more competitive we continue by merging the two sectors and by examining productivity change in the industry the merging procedure follows a methodology originally proposed by charnes cooper and rhodes 1981 in which intra sectoral managerial inefficiency is eliminated prior to merging this procedure allows us to distinguish differences in managerial efficiency within each sector from differences in the institutional efficiency of the two sectors it also enables us to decompose potential productivity change into institutional efficiency change technical change and the impact of scale economies we find the commercial banks to have had a slightly lower rate of productivity growth but a slightly higher rate of potential productivity growth we attribute this phenomenon to differences in both managerial efficiency and institutional efficiency to differences in the rate of technical progress and to the adverse impact of diseconomies of scale in the commercial banking sector

foreign direct investment spillovers and technical efficiency in the indonesian pharmaceutical sector firm level evidence the spillovers of foreign direct investment fdi on domestic firms performances have been highly debated for many years this article contributes to this debate by analysing spillovers effects on technical efficiency of indonesian pharmaceutical sector using a unique unbalanced panel of highly disaggregated at five digit international standard industrial classification isic 210 firms over the period 1990 1995 1001 observations the stochastic production frontier spf and the data envelopment analysis dea based on malmquist productivity indices mpi have been used to test the spillovers effects of fdi on technical efficiency the empirical results from the spf show that foreign firms are more efficient than domestic competitors and the presence of the former increases the inefficiency of the latter similarly the results from the mpi demonstrate that fdi has a negative and significant impact on technical efficiency changes in domestic competitors but generate positive spillovers to domestic s

russian voting and the initial economic shock of hyperinflation this paper addresses the issue of economicvoting in transitional democracies using data from the russianfederal elections it argues that the shock of inflation thatfollowed the fundamental economic reform has a lastinginfluence on voters specifically it shows that in russia where inflationary policy led to hyperinflation and thewidespread loss of personal savings the magnitude of savingslost at that time continues to explain a significant portionof the variation in the regional support for the communistparty in parliamentary and presidential elections

multi period efficiency and malmquist productivity index in two stage production systems abstract conventional two stage data envelopment analysis dea models measure the overall performance of a production system composed of two stages processes in a specified period of time where variations in different periods are ignored this paper takes the operations of individual periods into account to develop a multi period two stage dea model which is able to measure the overall and period efficiencies at the same time with the former expressed as a weighted average of the latter since the efficiency of a two stage system in a period is the product of the two process efficiencies the overall efficiency of a decision making unit dmu in the specified period of time can be decomposed into the process efficiency of each period based on this decomposition the sources of inefficiency in a dmu can be identified the efficiencies measured from the model can also be used to calculate a common weight global malmquist productivity index mpi between two periods in that the overall mpi is the product of the two process mpis the non life insurance industry in taiwan is used to verify the proposed model and to explain why some companies performed unsatisfactorily in the specified period of time

sectoral change catching up and slowing down oecd post war economic growth revisited abstract regression analysis of gdp growth since 1950 on pooled oecd cross sections indicates uniform technological catch up in all sectors but lower marginal labour productivity in agriculture the decline in opportunities to reallocate labour explains some of the post 1973 productivity slowdown

productivity and efficiency change and shareholder value evidence from the spanish banking sector productivity change and shareholder value have been analysed in the banking sector in the last few years although it should be noted that these two important aspects have been studied separately in this regard the main contribution of our study is to link these two lines of research by verifying whether those banks characterized by higher levels of efficiency and productivity change have a higher shareholder value to measure changes in efficiency and productivity we use the malmquist nonparametric technique which is calculated from data envelopment analysis dea linear programming approach the malmquist total factor productivity index enables separation of the catching up effect i e changes over time in technical efficiency from technological change i e the shift of best practice frontier over time due to technological progress our results for a sample of listed spanish banks in the period 2000 to 2004 confirm that those banks with higher efficiency and productivity changes have a higher

the impact of environmental expenditures on performance in the u s chemical industry abstract this study analyzes chemical industry companies with environmental expenditures to determine which ones have better financial performance in addition this study uses data envelopment analysis to evaluate the efficiency of firms with and without environmental expenditures this study also utilizes the malmquist productivity index mpi to analyze firms productivity change and a bootstrap method to test whether the indexes are statistically significant finally this study divides chemical industry companies into three main categories based on their products the results of this study provide significant evidence of a relationship between environmental expenditures and financial performance the findings suggest that firms with environmental expenditures have better efficiency and productivity hence the study encourages companies in the industry to put more effort into protecting the environment that can be through practicing cleaner production to create higher benefits

the role of environmental factors in growth accounting this paper explores a relatively new methodology the directional distance function method to analyse productivity growth the method allows us to explicitly evaluate the role that undesirable outputs of the economy such as carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases have on the frontier production process which we specify as a piecewise linear and convex boundary function we decompose productivity growth into efficiency change catching up and technology change innovation we test the statistical significance of the estimates using recently developed bootstrap methods we also explore implications for growth of total factor productivity in the oecd and asian economies copyright 2004 john wiley sons ltd

technological change technological catch up and capital deepening relative contributions to growth and convergence we decompose labor productivity growth into components attributable to 1 technological change shifts in the world production frontier 2 technological catch up movements toward or away from the frontier and 3 capital accumulation movement along the frontier the world production frontier is constructed using deterministic methods requiring no specification of functional form for the technology nor any assumption about market structure or the absence of market imperfections we analyze the evolution of the cross country distribution of labor productivity in terms of the tripartite decomposition finding that technological change is decidedly nonneutral and that both growth and bipolar international divergence are driven primarily by capital deepening jel o30 o47 d24

estimating most productive scale size using data envelopment analysis abstract the relation between the most productive scale size mpss for paparticular input and output mixes and returns to scale for multiple inputs multiple outputs situations is explicitly developed this relation is then employed to extend the applications of data envelopment analysis dea introduced by charnes cooper and rhodes ccr to the estimation of most productive scale sizes for convex production possibility sets it is then shown that in addition to productive inefficiencies at the actual scale size the ccr efficiency measure also reflects any inefficiencies due to divergence from the most productive scale size two illustrations of the practical applications of these results to the estimation of most productive scale sizes and returns to scale for hospitals and stem electric generation plants are also provided emphasize the advantage of this method in examining specific segments of the efficient production surface

eco efficiency of the western taiwan straits economic zone an evaluation based on a novel eco efficiency model and empirical analysis of influencing factors abstract obtaining the most economic benefits while using the least resources and causing the least environmental damage is an urgent and key problem in achieving sustainable development the concept of eco efficiency provides a comprehensive perspective for observing and solving this problem this paper proposes an extended data envelopment analysis model named the win us sbm as a comprehensive eco efficiency evaluation method that can accommodate undesirable outputs all the identification problems of decision making units dmus possible slacks of variables and the problems of an insufficient number of available dmus and intertemporal comparability china s western taiwan straits economic zone wts economic zone is an important regional economic growth center by applying win us sbm and arcgis software we investigated data on the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of eco efficiency in the wts economic zone for the years 2009 2016 later the global malmquist luenberger index was used to decompose the sources of growth in eco efficiency finally the main driving factors of eco efficiency were explored through a tobit regression analysis the empirical results show that 1 the overall eco efficiency of the wts economic zone had greatly improved increasing by 11 46 annually and the cumulative growth rate of eco efficiency was 110 84 from 2009 to 2016 2 the eastern area had the highest average eco efficiency followed by the western area and the middle area in that order also the growth rate of the middle area ranked first 16 68 whereas the eastern area had the slowest growth in eco efficiency 7 22 3 on the whole the growth of eco efficiency was driven mainly by technological progress and was restricted by the decrease in management level which implies that policy makers should focus on improving management and technical levels 4 high levels of economic development population density market openness and industrial structure had positive effects on the eco efficiency of the wts economic zone whereas energy intensity and expenditure on science and technology had negative impacts

radial and non radial decompositions of profit change with an application to indian banking abstract grifell tatje and lovell grifell tatje e lovell c a k 1999 profits and productivity management science 45 1177 1193 made significant contributions to the literature on the extended radial dea framework by decomposing profit change into six mutually exclusive components their approach however poses two basic problems first the radial estimates on these components might give conflicting signals about the direction of profit change after the full radial efficiencies are achieved when slacks are present second evaluations of these components using base period prices as weights can be potentially misleading to address these concerns we first introduce non radial dea models and then provide a few strong theoretical arguments in favor of using as weights either current period prices or an average price covering both periods to value the contributions of each of these components the indian banking sector is taken as a case study to illustrate the radial and non radial decompositions of profit change so as to empirically examine the role of competition on profit change and its drivers our broad empirical results are as follows first radial and non radial models yield diametrically opposite results on the contributions of various components second the increasing efficiency change trends in all ownership groups after 2002 indicate that the government reform process instituted on the banking industry has had a favorable effect on the performance of the indian banking sector third despite the fact that nationalized banks are the oldest banks their output and resource allocation behaviors do not reflect their learning experience

productivity change technical progress and relative efficiency change in the public accounting industry we present evidence on components of productivity change in the public accounting industry toward the end of the 20th century using revenue and human resource data from 64 of the 100 largest public accounting firms in the united states for the 1995 1999 period we analyze productivity change technical progress and relative efficiency change over time the average public accounting firm experienced a productivity growth of 9 5 between 1995 and 1999 we find support for the hypothesis that technical progress rather than an improvement in relative efficiency was the reason for this productivity growth firms that were early movers into management advisory services mas and those that emphasized growth in mas over growth in the traditional audit and tax services enjoyed significantly higher productivity growth than their peers these firms also contributed significantly more to the industry s technical progress

on the meaning of aggregate excess supply and demand for consumer goods in soviet type economies this paper discusses the policy relevance of a pure macroeconomic approach towards the problem of disequilibrium on the consumer good market in the traditional soviet type economies it is argued that when fixed distorted relative prices create both excess demands and excess supplies on the micromarkets and if such a situation must absolutely be characterized in terms of aggregate excess supply excess demand or equilibrium then in view of the possible policy implications of this characterization it is generally in the interest of the consumers that the planners perceive it as a situation of aggregate excess demand copyright 1990 by oxford university press

application of public domain market information to forecast ontario s wholesale electricity prices this paper evaluates the usefulness of publicly available electricity market information in forecasting the hourly ontario energy price hoep in order to do so relevant data from ontario and its neighboring electricity markets namely new york new england and pjm electricity markets are investigated and a final set of explanatory variable candidates that are available before real time are selected multivariate transfer function and dynamic regression models are employed to relate hoep behavior to the selected explanatory variable candidates univariate arima models are also developed for the hoep the hoep models are developed on the basis of two forecasting horizons i e 3 h and 24 h and forecasting performance of the multivariate models is compared with that of the univariate models the outcomes show that the market information publicly available before real time can be used to improve hoep forecast accuracy to some extent however unusually high or low prices remain unpredictable and hence the available data cannot lead to significantly more accurate forecasts nevertheless the generated forecasts in this paper are significantly more accurate than currently available hoep forecasts to analyze the relatively low accuracy of the hoep forecasts comparisons are made with respect to arima models developed for locational marginal prices lmps of ontario s three neighboring markets and price volatility analyses are presented

decomposition of the fisher ideal index of productivity a non parametric dual analysis of us airlines data in this paper we offer a non parametric method of decomposing the fisher ideal index of productivity into individual factors measuring i technical efficiency change ii allocative efficiency change iii shift in the cost function iv scale economies due to output change and v an adjustment factor reflecting change in the output attributes cross section data from the us airline industry for the years i 983 and i 984 are utilised in an empirical application illustrating this method the rate of multifactor productivity growth mfpg over time in the single output multiple input case can be measured by the difference in the rates of growth in the quantity of output and the divisia index of input quantity when no technical inefficiency exists this rate of mfpg can be decomposed into two additive components i the rate of technical change measuring the rate of change in the volume of output holding the input bundle unchanged and ii a returns to scale effect showing change in productivity with changes in the input quantities without technical change when technical efficiency varies over time a part of the measured rate of mfpg would be due to efficiency

assessing productivity changes in uk hospitals reflecting technology and input prices in this study malmquist productivity indexes are used to evaluate the performance of acute hospitals in the uk over the period after the introduction of the internal market in the national health service in 1991 the indexes are computed using nonparametric programming known as data envelopment analysis and they are decomposed into multiple component measures to give insights into the trends in hospital performance overall it is found that productivity regressed in the year after the reforms but progressed thereafter so that overall there was a net progress both as far as the inputs and costs are concerned productivity progress is mainly due to overall efficiency progress which in turn is mostly attributed to allocative efficiency improvements technical change resulted in a small reduction in the amount of inputs used but also at higher production costs because of a worsening in the match between input mixes and relative input prices however it is suggested that the gains in productivity are not

regulatory reforms and productivity an empirical analysis of the japanese electricity industry the japanese electricity industry has experienced regulatory reforms since the mid 1990s this article measures productivity in japan s steam power generation sector and examines the effect of reforms on the productivity of this industry over the period 1978 2003 we estimate the luenberger productivity indicator which is a generalization of the commonly used malmquist productivity index using a data envelopment analysis approach factors associated with productivity change are investigated through dynamic generalized method of moments gmm estimation of panel data our empirical analysis shows that the regulatory reforms have contributed to productivity growth in the steam power generation sector in japan

repressed inflation in the soviet union a temporary equilibrium approach abstract the soviet economy is modeled by means of temporary general equilibrium theory three temporary equilibrium states are distinguished in walrasian equilibrium all markets clear under repressed inflation there is excess consumer demand for goods marketed by the state while consumer demand is deficient in the underconsumption regime the dynamics of these temporary equilibrium states are studied and the dynamic adjustment equations fitted to soviet data simulation of the model offers an explanation for the tendency of the inventories cash balances ratio to fall since 1965

socialist economics the disequilibrium school and the shortage economy the economics literature about behavior and policy in the stylized socialist economy has passed through three main phases the first phase emanated essentially from the barone lange von mises debate before world war ii its main focus was on how a socialist economy could operate efficiently in the absence of markets and private property the second phase occurring mostly since world war ii has been concerned primarily with coming to grips with the organization institutions and planning process of economies that profess to have realized some form of the ideal socialist economy several writers have sought to generalize on the basis of these empirical features without really aiming at a rigorous formal theory of the various agents in a centrally planned economy the third phase has occurred since the mid 1970s when some began to work out propositions on and formalize models of micro and macroeconomic behavior in stylized centrally planned economies and sought to buttress their theoretical approach with macroeconometric measurements that have since been used as a platform for formulating policy recommendations there have been three main strands in this third type of inquiry ickes 1984

a garch forecasting model to predict day ahead electricity prices price forecasting is becoming increasingly relevant to producers and consumers in the new competitive electric power markets both for spot markets and long term contracts price forecasts are necessary to develop bidding strategies or negotiation skills in order to maximize profits this paper provides an approach to predict next day electricity prices based on the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic garch methodology that is already being used to analyze time series data in general a detailed explanation of garch models is presented and empirical results from the mainland spain and california deregulated electricity markets are discussed

productivity growth and inter sector spill over in dutch horticulture 1976 1995 this article calculates nonparametric measures of total factor productivity growth on dutch horticultural firms in the period 1976 1995 individual components of total factor productivity growth i e efficiency change and technical change are regressed on socioeconomic factors reflecting the effects of the world oil crises household and demographic characteristics location and investment in physical capital also the article investigates the presence of inter sector spill overs between groups of firms with different specializations in dutch horticulture

total factor productivity growth in agriculture a malmquist index analysis of 93 countries 1980 2000 in this paper we examine levels and trends in agricultural output and productivity in 93 developed and developing countries that account for a major portion of the world population and agricultural output we make use of data drawn from the food and agriculture organization of the united nations and our study covers the period 1980 2000 due to the non availability of reliable input price data the study uses data envelopment analysis dea to derive malmquist productivity indexes the study examines trends in agricultural productivity over the period issues of catch up and convergence or in some cases possible divergence in productivity in agriculture are examined within a global framework the paper also derives the shadow prices and value shares that are implicit in the dea based malmquist productivity indices and examines the plausibility of their levels and trends over the study period

privatization of nippon telegraph and telephone was it a good policy decision nippon telegraph and telephone ntt corporation was privatized in 1985 under the economic assertion that a public enterprise is less efficient and less profitable than a private enterprise this assertion is referred to as the property right theory in economics and it is used as a theoretical rationale for privatizing publicly owned organizations this article empirically examines the economic assertion by comparing ntt s performance before and after its privatization data envelopment analysis dea is used as the research tool in this study which confirmed the economic assertion in terms of production based efficiency measures but it cannot find any major difference in its cost reducing corporate efforts thus this study presents serious management problems occurring within the ntt s partial privatization the partial privatization is now prevailing in the telecommunications industry all over the world this article also discusses the japanese business environment which makes ntt managerially ineffective under its public private joint ownership

reducing electricity price forecasting error using seasonality and higher order crossing information commodity prices are volatile and their volatility changes over time electricity prices are even more volatile in general because customers cannot easily switch to other energy source when the electricity prices fluctuate electricity prices also have strong seasonal behavior because the demand of electricity depends on the season to address these characteristics a time series forecasting model with seasonality and higher order crossing information for electricity prices is proposed the model measures the similarity between two time series by using their higher order crossing information the model can predict not only day ahead prices short term forecasting but also a series of prices for one week ahead or even longer simultaneously medium term price curve forecasting the model is tested on both high and low volatile data sets to evaluate its robustness and generality it is also shown that the model can produce more accurate prediction than some well known models

arima models to predict next day electricity prices price forecasting is becoming increasingly relevant to producers and consumers in the new competitive electric power markets both for spot markets and long term contracts price forecasts are necessary to develop bidding strategies or negotiation skills in order to maximize benefit this paper provides a method to predict next day electricity prices based on the arima methodology arima techniques are used to analyze time series and in the past have been mainly used for load forecasting due to their accuracy and mathematical soundness a detailed explanation of the aforementioned arima models and results from mainland spain and californian markets are presented

electricity market price forecasting based on weighted nearest neighbors techniques this paper presents a simple technique to forecast next day electricity market prices based on the weighted nearest neighbors methodology first it is explained how the relevant parameters defining the adopted model are obtained such parameters have to do with the window length of the time series and with the number of neighbors chosen for the prediction then results corresponding to the spanish electricity market during 2002 are presented and discussed finally the performance of the proposed method is compared with that of recently published techniques

modelling technical efficiency in cross sectionally dependent stochastic frontier panels summary this paper proposes a unified framework for accommodating both time and cross sectional dependence in modelling technical efficiency in stochastic frontier models by combining the exogenously driven factor based approach and an endogenous threshold efficiency regime selection mechanism this approach is able to deal with both weak and strong cross sectional dependence in a flexible manner using a dataset of 26 oecd countries over 1970 2010 we provide satisfactory estimation results for the production technology parameters and the associated efficiency ranking of individual countries we find a positive spillover effect on efficiency supporting the hypothesis that knowledge spillover is more likely to be induced by technological proximity furthermore our approach enables us to identify efficiency clubs endogenously

total factor productivity measurement and human capital in oecd countries abstract this paper analyses the total factor productivity tfp evolution in oecd countries by breaking down productivity gains into technical change and efficiency change to avoid biases malmquist indices of productivity including human capital are estimated the results indicate that in fact the inclusion of human capital has a significant effect on the accurate measurement of tfp

human capital and convergence a production frontier approach using nonparametric production frontier methods we decompose labor productivity growth into components attributable to technological change shifts in the world production frontier technological catch up movements toward or away from the frontier and physical and human capital accumulation movements along the frontier we find that 1 technological change is decidedly nonneutral 2 productivity growth is driven primarily by physical and human capital accumulation 3 the increased international dispersion of productivity is explained primarily by physical capital accumulation and 4 international polarization the shift from a unimodal to a bimodal distribution is brought about primarily by efficiency changes technological catch up

a novel approach to forecast electricity price for pjm using neural network and similar days method price forecasting in competitive electricity markets is critical for consumers and producers in planning their operations and managing their price risk and it also plays a key role in the economic optimization of the electric energy industry this paper explores a technique of artificial neural network ann model based on similar days sd method in order to forecast day ahead electricity price in the pjm market to demonstrate the superiority of the proposed model publicly available data acquired from the pjm interconnection were used for training and testing the ann the factors impacting the electricity price forecasting including time factors load factors and historical price factors are discussed comparison of forecasting performance of the proposed ann model with that of forecasts obtained from similar days method is presented daily and weekly mean absolute percentage error mape of reasonably small value and forecast mean square error fmse of less than 7 mwh were obtained for the pjm data which has correlation coefficient of determination of 0 6744 between load and electricity price simulation results show that the proposed ann model based on similar days method is capable of forecasting locational marginal price lmp in the pjm market efficiently and accurately

the effect of incentive reforms upon productivity evidence from the vietnamese rice industry in this study we use region level panel data on rice production in vietnam to investigate total factor productivity tfp growth in the period since reunification in 1975 two significant reforms were introduced during this period one in 1981 allowing farmers to keep part of their produce and another in 1987 providing improved land tenure we measure tfp growth using two modified forms of the standard malmquist data envelopment analysis dea method which we have named the three year window tyw and the full cumulative fc methods we have developed these methods to deal with degrees of freedom limitations our empirical results indicate strong average tfp growth of between 3 3 and 3 5 per cent per annum with the fastest growth observed in the period following the first reform our results support the assertion that incentive related issues have played a large role in the decline and subsequent resurgence of vietnamese agriculture

technical efficiency and productivity analysis in indonesian provincial economies this article estimates inefficiency and total factor productivity tfp across indonesian provinces from 1993 to 2000 indonesia is a large emerging market economy but provinces within the country due to the island structure of the country are more distinct from one another compared to other countries we use a stochastic frontier methodology to estimate inefficiency and tfp we find that tfp fell by an average rate of 7 5 across provinces due to the decrease in technical efficiency in fact the majority of output growth within indonesia is explained by the accumulation of inputs in this sense economic growth within indonesia does not appear to be sustainable without reversing these trends

is inflation in developing countries driven by low productivity or monetary growth abstract this paper investigates whether inflation in developing countries is driven by retrogression in productivity or by monetary expansion our empirical methodology relies on growth accounting non parametric and generalized method of moment techniques results indicate that inflation is primarily driven by monetary growth

malmquist productivity indexes and fisher ideal indexes comment fare and grosskopf i992 henceforth abbreviated as fg showed that under some conditions the productivity index defined as the geometric mean of two input based malmquist productivity indexes is equal to the quotient of the fisher input quantity index and the fisher output quantity index both fisher indices can be computed from observed prices and quantities these conditions appear to be so strong that they will almost certainly never be fulfilled in practice this is shown by a careful inspection of fg s proof however under slightly milder but more plausible conditions it can be shown that the quotient of the fisher input index and the fisher output index is a reasonable approximation of the productivity index consider a firm at two time periods t o i with different technologies which are modelled by the input correspondences lt y x x can produce y x c rn yce rm it is assumed that the sets lt y are closed and convex and that inputs are strongly disposable the vectors x yt wt pt t o i denote observed inputs observed outputs observed input prices and observed output prices respectively the productivity index is defined as

forecasting next day electricity prices by time series models in the framework of competitive electricity markets power producers and consumers need accurate price forecasting tools price forecasts embody crucial information for producers and consumers when planning bidding strategies in order to maximize their benefits and utilities respectively this paper provides two highly accurate yet efficient price forecasting tools based on time series analysis dynamic regression and transfer function models these techniques are explained and checked against each other results and discussions from real world case studies based on the electricity markets of mainland spain and california are presented

energy price forecasting in the ontario competitive power system market this paper introduces a method for forecasting energy prices using artificial intelligence methods such as neural networks and fuzzy logic and a combination of the two the new approach is compared with some of the exiting methods various factors affecting the market clearing price are investigated results for the ontario electricity market are presented

why is tfp growth sectorally concentrated research shows that total factor productivity tfp growth is weak in european countries this is inter alia attributed to the fact that substantial tfp growth is limited to a few industries because tfp growth is typically understood as technological progress it is concluded that technology diffusion between sectors in europe is hampered we use eu klems data sets to decompose sectoral tfp for nine european countries by means of a malmquist approach in order to identify potential sources besides technical progress applying harberger diagrams we describe the sectoral distribution of tfp growth efficiency gains and losses economies of scale and technological progress the analysis reveals that technological progress is quite evenly distributed across sectors in most european countries the wide scattering of tfp growth is explained by deviating efficiency developments and the unused economies of scale we conclude that the technology transfer between sectors in most european countries seems to work t

eco efficiency change in power plants using a slacks based measure for the meta frontier malmquist luenberger productivity index abstract malmquist luenberger index is a popular index deployed for evaluating eco efficiency and productivity change over a certain period when both desirable and undesirable factors are jointly produced in some production processes however conventional data envelopment analysis dea models used for computing this index are unable to distinguish the various technologies employed by the decision making units when heterogeneity exists in the technology the meta frontier malmquist luenberger approach is adopted to evaluate eco efficiency and productivity change over a period when undesirable outputs are incorporated in the analysis of efficiency in this paper a new slacks based dea measure is developed and used to compute the meta frontier malmquist luenberger productivity index this approach is then deployed to evaluate 48 iranian thermal power plants productivity change in three different categories steam gas and combined cycle over an eight year period of restructuring in the power industry this technique enables the calculation of eco efficiency change of thermal power plants operating under different technologies as well as the technology gap ratios and measures the extent to which the efficiency frontiers of individual categories of power plants deviate from the meta frontier the results reveal that the last years of the restructuring period saw a greater rate of productivity growth compared to the initial years and evidence of significant eco efficiency improvements over the period in all the three types of the thermal power plants finally it is expected that the findings in this study aid policy makers and power industry regulators in developing sustainable energy policies towards environmental protection and planning power plant operations

relative sources of european regional productivity convergence a bootstrap frontier approach enflo k and hjertstrand p relative sources of european regional productivity convergence a bootstrap frontier approach regional studies this paper addresses the issue of western european regional productivity growth and convergence by means of data envelopment analysis dea decomposing labour productivity into efficiency change technical change and capital accumulation the decomposition shows that most regions have fallen behind the production frontier in efficiency and that capital accumulation has had a diverging effect on the labour productivity distribution using bootstrapping methods the paper also accounts for the inherent bias and the stochastic elements in the efficiency estimation it is found that the relative ranking of the efficiency scores remains stable after the bias correction even after controlling for spatially correlated measurement errors and that the dea successfully identifies the regions on the production frontier as significantly more efficient than other regions enfl

computational controversies in disequilibrium and shortage modelling of centrally planned economies abstract most disequilibrium and shortage models of centrally planned economies fall into three categories testable excess demand the portes school disequilibrium indicators and kornai s economics of shortage these models have generated numerous controversies and conflicting empirical results however this paper argues that some disputes are not caused by the theoretical features of the models but rather by the utilisation of different estimation methods that are not directly comparable this suggests that several controversies are more apparent than real and can be resolved through the improvement of computational techniques and statistical hypothesis testing theory

electricity price short term forecasting using artificial neural networks this paper presents the system marginal price smp short term forecasting implementation using the artificial neural networks ann computing technique the described approach uses the three layered ann paradigm with backpropagation the retrospective smp real world data acquired from the deregulated victorian power system was used for training and testing the ann the results presented in this paper confirm considerable value of the ann based approach in forecasting the smp

bridging the gap between partial and total factor productivity measures using directional distance functions technical dependencies as well as data constraints limit our ability to allocate inputs across sectors and hence our ability to measure sectoral productivity we adapt a directional measure of efficiency to the measurement of sector specific productivity that does not require allocating all inputs across sectors applied to the agricultural sector of a group of countries the results show important differences in livestock and crops productivity growth commonly used partial factor productivity measures for livestock and crops tend to overestimate productivity growth in most developing countries while underestimating it in european countries

productivity growth technical progress and efficiency change in industrialized countries this paper analyzes productivity growth in 17 oecd countries over the period 1979 1988 a nonparametric programming method activity analysis is used to compute malmquist productivity indexes these are decomposed into two component measures namely technical change and efficiency change we find that u s productivity growth is slightly higher than average all of which is due to technical change japan s productivity growth is the highest in the sample with almost half due to efficiency change jel c43 d24 in this paper we apply recently developed

sustainability performance for china s transportation industry under the environmental regulation abstract traffic and transportation industry is a carbon intensive industry in china the implementation of environmental regulation is of important practical significance nowadays literatures lack of quantitative analysis on transport industry s sustainability performance under the environmental regulation by using a directional distance function this paper aims to investigate the effect of environmental regulation on this industry furthermore this paper measures its green total factor productivity under the general intensity of regulation and strict regulation from 2000 to 2010 results show that the economic growth mode in transportation industry is still the extensive mode while there is great potential for the improvement of energy saving and production

a non parametric analysis of productivity the case of u s and japanese manufacturing a nonparametric analysis of technology technical change and productivity is presented in the context of cost minimizing behavior a number of nonparametric tests concerning the existence and nature of technical change are applied to u s and japanese manufacturing data nonparametric measures of technical change are presented copyright 1990 by american economic association

efficiency and technical progress sources of convergence in the spanish regions the paper analyses the contribution of efficiency as a mechanism of labour productivity convergence taking as the unit of analysis the spanish regions in the period 1964 1993 using the stochastic frontier approach a translogarithmic production function is estimated for the different sectors of the spanish regional economy demonstrating on this basis the existence of substantial differences in efficiency between sectors as well as between regions with regard to convergence the results obtained indicate that at aggregate level the convergence observed in labour productivity is explained by the faster growth of the capital labour ratio of the initially poorer regions and the contribution of technical change and the efficiency hence by the convergence of tfp however the information by sectors shows different results thus on the one hand the importance of the convergence in production per employee is seen in all sectors except agriculture and on the other it is observed that technical change is a

sources of productivity growth using the fare primont decomposition an empirical application to the irish beef sector several competing methodologies for tfp estimation have been developed in the past decades a popular approach in the literature is index number computation the most widely implemented tfp indices

total factor carbon emission performance of fossil fuel power plants in china a metafrontier non radial malmquist index analysis article i nfo this paper proposes the metafrontier non radial malmquist co2 emission performance index mnmcpi for measuring dynamic changes in total factor co2 emission performance over time the mnmcpi method allows for the incorporation of group heterogeneity and non radial slack into the previously introduced malmquist co2 emission performance index mcpi we derive the mnmcpi by solving several non radial data envelop ment analysis dea models we decompose the mnmcpi into an efficiency change ec index a best practice gap change bpc index and a technology gap change tgc index and based on the proposed indices we examine the dynamic changes in co2 emission performance and its decomposition of fossil fuel power plants in china for the 2005 2010 period the empirical results show a 0 38 increase in total factor co2 emission performance as a whole and a u shaped mnmcpi curve for the sample period because companies owned by the central government lack innovation and technological leadership the results suggest a missing link in the role of the central government in promoting co2 emission performance

performance and efficiency in colombia s power distribution system effects of the 1994 reform we assess evolution in performance efficiency and productivity of colombia s power distribution utilities before and after the 1994 regulatory reform that introduced electricity market activities for the power sector in 12 distribution companies from 1985 to 2001 performance is evaluated contrasting changes in mean and median by wilcoxon rank sum and pearson tests on financial and other performance indicators technical efficiency is measured by means of data envelopment analysis dea the nature of the dataset allows the estimation of malmquist productivity index and its evolution in time results show a recovery after the reform in the main performance indicators of profitability partial input productivity and output plant efficiency and productivity increased after the reform mainly in the largest utilities used as benchmarks in the dea efficiency scores measures meanwhile the less efficient power distribution companies did not improved after the reform and were not able to undertake plant restructuring to catch up in plant efficiency with respect to the pareto efficient input allocations econometric results on dea efficiency scores suggest a positive effect of policy reform

the evolution and main determinants of productivity in brazilian electricity distribution 1998 2005 an empirical analysis abstract this paper estimates changes in the productivity of the brazilian electricity distribution sector using data envelopment analysis dea on a panel of 18 firms from 1998 to 2005 the study decomposes the productivity change of these distribution firms in terms of technical efficiency scale efficiency and technical progress this exercise aims to help the understanding of the main determinants of the evolution of productivity focusing its relationship with the restructuring process implemented in the 1990s tfp index records a yearly positive growth rate of 1 3 in the whole period under analysis for all firms technical change was the main component behind this evolution with an average growth of 2 1 per year while technical efficiency presented a yearly negative performance of 0 8 the results prove that in general terms the incentives generated in the reform process do not seem to have led the firms to behave in a more efficient manner

the transatlantic productivity gap a survey of the main causes abstract during the last 2 decades europe s economy experienced a productivity slowdown whereas the united states us economy exhibited a marked acceleration the result is that since the early 1990s the relative productivity levels between the two regions have continuously diverged leading to a transatlantic productivity gap much of the explanation for this is the strong performance of the us in the so called new economy or knowledge economy and in particular the underinvestment in r d and as a result productivity and innovation has been at the forefront in the european policy agenda however various explanations for the us european union transatlantic productivity gap suggest that the picture is rather more complex than simply the effects on or the result of particular technology driven sectors

day ahead electricity price forecasting using the wavelet transform and arima models this paper proposes a novel technique to forecast day ahead electricity prices based on the wavelet transform and arima models the historical and usually ill behaved price series is decomposed using the wavelet transform in a set of better behaved constitutive series then the future values of these constitutive series are forecast using properly fitted arima models in turn the arima forecasts allow through the inverse wavelet transform reconstructing the future behavior of the price series and therefore to forecast prices results from the electricity market of mainland spain in year 2002 are reported