trend shocks and the countercyclical u s current account from 1960 2009 the u s current account balance has tended to decline during expansions and improve in recessions we argue that trend shocks to productivity can help explain the countercyclical u s current account our framework is a two country two good real business cycle rbc model in which cross border asset trade is limited to an international bond we identify trend and transitory shocks to u s productivity using generalized method of moments gmm estimation the specication that best matches the data assigns a large role to trend shocks the estimated model generates a countercyclical current account without excessive consumption volatility

toward the integration of european natural gas markets a time varying approach abstract over the past fifteen years european gas markets have radically changed in order to build a single european gas market a new regulatory framework has been established through three european gas directives the purpose of this article is to investigate the impact of the reforms in the natural gas industry on consumer prices with a specific focus on gas prices for industrial use the strength of the relationship between the industrial gas prices of six western european countries is studied by testing the law of one price for the period 1991 2009 estimations were carried out using both cointegration analysis and time varying parameter models results highlight an emerging and on going process of convergence between the industrial gas prices in western europe since 2001 for the six eu member states the strength and the level of convergence differ widely between countries strong integration of gas markets in continental europe except for the belgian market has been established it appears that the convergence process between continental countries and the uk is not completed thus the integration of european gas markets remains an open issue and the question of how far integration will proceed will still be widely discussed in the coming years

taxes inflation and the durability of capital the choice of capital durability is affected by the rate of inflation because nominal depreciation deductions are based on historical cost rather than replacement cost this paper analyzes a model with competitive firms and demonstrates that an increase in the rate of inflation will lead to an increase in the durability of capital if the ratio of the nominal discount rate to the rate of depreciation exceeds a critical value however if this ratio is less than the crucial value this effect is reversed the effect of costs of adjustments on the crucial value is analyzed

how responsive is business capital formation to its user cost an exploration with micro data abstract the response of business capital formation to its user cost is critical to evaluating tax reform deficit reduction and monetary policy evidence for a substantial user cost elasticity however is sparse most evidence has been based on aggregate data although several recent studies with firm level data report substantial effects with a particularly rich micro dataset containing over 26 000 observations this paper explores what can be learned about the user cost elasticity while the results depend to some extent on the specification and econometric technique various diagnostics lead us to prefer a precisely estimated but small elasticity of approximately 0 25 this paper is dedicated to the memory of robert eisner who labored early and ably on uncovering the determinants of investment spending and highlighting the importance of the question found in the title of this paper

measuring quality change in quota constrained import markets the case of u s footwear abstract theoretical models predict that quantitative import restrictions such as orderly marketing agreements omas lead to substitution into higher quality products within the quotaconstrained import category the country specific nature of omas results in further substitution among supplying countries using index number techniques this paper measures the impact of product and country substitution on the price of u s footwear imports in the period surrounding the 1977 1981 footwear oma with korea and taiwan upgrading of the import bundle was observed in most quota categories throughout the oma period and accounted for 12 percent of the observed rise in the average price of footwear imports

a new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the business cycle abstract this paper introduces a general procedure for decomposition of non stationary time series into a permanent and transitory component allowing both components to be stochastic the permanent component is shown to be a random walk with drift and the transitory or cyclical component is a stationary process with mean zero the decomposition methodology which depends only on past data and therefore is computable in real time is applied to the problem of measuring and dating business cycles in the portwar u s economy we find that measured expansions and contractions are of roughly equivalent duration and that our dating of cyclical episodes tends to lead the traditional nber dating and to a lesser extent the growth cycle chronology of zarnowitz and boschan 1977

do trade costs in goods market lead to home bias in equities abstract two of the main puzzles in international economics are the consumption and the portfolio home biases we solve for international equity portfolios in a two country two good stochastic equilibrium model with trade costs in goods markets we show that introducing trade costs as suggested by obstfeld and rogoff obstfeld m rogoff k 2000a the six major puzzles in international macroeconomics is there a common cause nber macroeconomics annual 15 is not sufficient to explain these two puzzles simultaneously on the contrary we find that trade costs create a foreign bias in portfolios for reasonable parameter values this result is robust to the addition of non tradable goods for standard calibrations of the preferences

international portfolios capital accumulation and foreign assets dynamics despite the liberalization of capital ows among oecd countries equity home bias remains sizable we depart from the two familiar explanations of equity home bias transaction costs that impede international diversi cation and terms of trade responses to supply shocks that provide risk sharing so that there is little incentive to hold diversi ed portfolios we show that the interaction of the following ingredients generates a realistic equity home bias capital accumulation shocks to the e ciency of physical investment as well as international trade in stocks and bonds in our model domestic stocks are used to hedge uctuations in local wage income terms of trade risk is hedged using bonds denominated in local goods and in foreign goods in contrast to related models the low level of international diversi cation does not depend on strongly countercyclical terms of trade the model also reproduces the cyclical dynamics of foreign asset positions and of international capital ows

international portfolio flows with growth shocks this paper investigates the impacts of level and growth rate productivity shocks on the cyclical dynamics of gross portfolio flows between two economies using an endogenous portfolio choice problem within a dsge framework we find that the level shocks yield procyclical gross equity flows while the growth rate shocks produce countercyclical flows these dynamics cannot be replicated by only employing persistent shocks to the level of productivity

what drives us foreign borrowing evidence on external adjustment to transitory and permanent shocks the joint dynamics of us net output consumption and valuation adjusted foreign assets and liabilities characterized empirically following lettau and ludvigson 2004 is shown to be strikingly consistent with current account theory while us consumption is virtually insulated from transitory shocks these contribute considerably to the variation in net output and even more so in gross foreign positions arguably smoothing temporary variations in returns a single permanent shock naturally interpreted as a productivity shock raises consumption swiftly while causing net output to adjust only gradually this leads to persistent procyclical external deficits but interestingly moves gross assets and liabilities in the same direction

investment tax incentives prices and the supply of capital goods using data on the prices of capital goods this paper shows that much of the benefit of investment tax incentives does not go to investing firms but rather to capital suppliers through higher prices the reduction in the cost of capital from a 10 percent investment tax credit increases equipment prices 3 5 7 0 percent this lasts several years and is largest for assets with large order backlogs low import competition or with a large fraction of buyers able to use investment subsidies capital goods workers wages rise too instrumental variables estimates of the short run supply elasticity are around 1 and can explain the traditionally small estimates of investment demand elasticities in absolute value the demand elasticity implied here exceeds 1

the impact of the minimum wage if workers can adjust effort abstract in traditional models a binding minimum wage creates a excess supply of low skilled workers for minimum wage jobs employment falls and some jobs are reallocated from high to low rent workers this disequilibrium cannot persist competition to secure the property rights to now scarce jobs undoes most of the effects of the minimum wage workers who attach the highest value to the jobs are willing to work harder to keep them marginal workers are squeezed out of the market as high rent workers ratchet up effort level this process erodes the rent conferred by the minimum wage but also increases the value of marginal product which reduces the size of the employment effect the minimum wage confers more money income on low skilled workers and creates some distortion in the optimum combination of wage rate and effort level under plausible conditions the minimum wage has little effect on rent employment output and profits

oligopolistic competition and international trade quantity and quality restrictions abstract we examine trade restrictions such as quantity and quality limitations on imports in an oligopolistic industry consisting of foreign and domestic firms we find that the effects of trade policy hinge on the location of the quality produced by the firms in the quality spectrum a quota leads to positive protection while minimum quality standards leads to negative protection furthermore minimum standards lower national welfare and a quota has an ambiguous effect on welfare

why is consumption so smooth for thirty years it has been accepted that consumption is smooth because permanent income is smoother than measured income this paper considers the evidence for the contrary position that permanent income is in fact less smooth than measured income so that the smoothness of consumption cannot be straightforwardly explained by permanent income theory the paper argues that in postwar u s quarterly data consumption is smooth because it responds with a lag to changes in income

the relative inefficiency of quotas the cheese case the nonequivalence of tariffs and quotas under a wide variety of circumstances is well established in economic theory this study considers heterogeneity as a source of nonequivalence and demonstrates its practical importance where restriction is inevitable the bias of economists in favor of price instruments is not thoroughly grounded this study should help provide a foundation the point of departure from the equivalence model is differentiation of products

policy measures targeting a more integrated gas market impact of a merger of two trading zones on prices and arbitrage activity in france under way to a european integrated energy market policymakers need to find efficient measures aimed at increasing liquidity in local natural gas markets the paper answers the question whether a merger of gas trading zones contributes to the development of liquid trading activities through a more efficient allocation and pricing of natural gas and an increased competition between market players we analyse the effects of a policy decision to merge two gas trading zones in france on the observed degree of spatial market integration and the efficiency of the spatial arbitrage activity between the northern and southern french gas markets an extended parity bounds model confirms a positive impact of the zone merger on the market s spatial equilibrium and indicates the causes of remaining market inefficiencies the model offers a tool for the assessment of the efficiency of policy decisions in the context of policy initiatives to create an integrated and liquid natural gas market in europe

consumption inequality and income uncertainty this paper places the debate over using consumption or income in studies of inequality growth in a formal intertemporal setting it highlights the importance of permanent and transitory income uncertainty in the evaluation of growth in consumption inequality we derive conditions under which the growth of variances and covariances of income and consumption can be used to separately identify the growth in the variance of permanent and transitory income shocks household data from britain for the period 1968 1992 are used to show a strong growth in transitory inequality toward the end of this period while younger cohorts are shown to face significantly higher levels of permanent inequality

measuring international business cycles by saving for a rainy day macroeconomics inevitably begins with a trend cycle decomposition of a nation s output we propose a decomposition in which consumption is the trend component and savings is the cycle component using data from the g 7 plus australia we show that this decomposition identifies international business cycles that are i more volatile ii of longer mean duration and iii less correlated across countries than the cycle component from the hodrick prescott filter we argue that this difference stems from the fact that our method imposes a basic theoretical restriction arising from the permanent income hypothesis similar to the restriction used in cochrane s 1994 decomposition resume mesurer les cycles d affaires internationaux par l epargne les travaux en macroeconomie commencent inevitablement par une decomposition du profil de la production nationale en tendance et cycles les auteurs proposent une decomposition ou la composante consommation est la tendance et l epargne est la composante cyclique utilisant les donnees du g 7 et de l australie on montre que cette decomposition identifie les cycles d affaires internationaux qui sont i plus volatiles ii d une duree moyenne plus longue et iii moins co relies entre pays que la composante cyclique a la hodrick prescott les auteurs suggerent que la difference provient du fait que leur methode impose une restriction theorique de base emergent de l hypothese du revenu permanent semblable a la restriction utilisee dans la decomposition a la cochrane 1994

a quantitative assessment of the decline in the u s current account low frequency changes in the u s current account can be understood in terms of the influence of differences in productivity growth rates across time and across countries using standard growth theory in particular the secular decline is primarily driven by the increase in the u s tfp growth rate relative to its trading partners differences in population growth rates or fiscal policy have no significant effects on the low frequency changes in the u s current account

what happens when you tax the rich evidence from executive compensation this paper examines the responsiveness of taxable income to changes in marginal tax rates using detailed compensation data on several thousand corporate executives from 1991 to 1995 the data confirm that the higher marginal rates of 1993 led to a significant decline in taxable income indeed this small group of executives may account for as much as 20 percent of the aggregate change in wage and salary income for approximately the one million richest taxpayers over this time period one person alone can account for more than 2 percent the decline however is almost entirely a short run shift in the timing of compensation rather than a permanent reduction in taxable income the short run elasticity of taxable income with respect to the net of tax share exceeds one in this sample but the elasticity after one year is at most 0 4 and probably closer to zero breaking out the tax responsiveness of different types of compensation shows that the large short run responses come almost entirely from a large inc

international market integration for natural gas a cointegration analysis of prices in europe north america and japan this paper investigates the degree of integration of natural gas markets in europe north america and japan in the time period between the early 1990s and 2004 the relationship between international gas market prices and their relation to the oil price are explored through principal components analysis and johansen likelihood based cointegration procedure both of them show a high level of natural gas market integration within europe between the european and japanese markets as well as within the north american market at the same time the obtained results suggest that the european respectively japanese and the north american markets were not integrated

tariffs versus quotas with endogenous quality this paper analyzes the effects and desirability of tariffs quotas and quality controls when the quality of the imported good is endogenous and the foreign producer is a monopolist a crucial determinant of the direction of these effects is shown to be the valuation of increments in quality by the marginal consumer relative to that of all consumers on average a way of comparing infinitesimal equivalent policies is developed and used to compare import equivalent policies

taxation and product quality new evidence from generic cigarettes in this journal barzel 1976 theorized that per unit taxes should increase the average quality of a product whereas ad valorem taxes may either lower product quality or leave it unaffected there are several different ways to present the logic behind this theory barzel stresses that per unit taxes do not tax all attributes of a commodity causing a substitution from the taxed attributes quantity into the others quality 1 another way is to draw an analogy to the alchian and allen 1964 theorem where the addition of a fixed fee causes a decrease in the relative price of the higher quality version of the product 2 because ad valorem taxes add the same percentage to the prices of both the highand low quality versions of the product they do not distort relative prices thus ad valorem taxes should

valuation effects with transitory and trend productivity shocks abstract changes in asset prices of a country s foreign assets and liabilities valuation effects are commonly thought of as stabilizing they counteract current account movements and mitigate the impact of the current account on the country s net foreign asset nfa position this paper shows that whether valuation effects are stabilizing or not depends critically on the nature of the underlying productivity shocks in response to transitory shocks valuation effects are stabilizing but in response to trend shocks such effects amplify the impact of the current account on nfa position these contrasting effects arise because optimally smoothing consumers respond differently to a transitory shock than to a trend shock to income this theoretical result finds empirical support with g7 countries data and is illustrated by the pattern of external imbalances between the u s and other g7 countries since the 1990s

poverty human development and growth an emerging consensus this paper considers several issues relevant to the debate on the extent to which poverty or development progress in general should be measured by income or by a broader set of objectives issues covered here are practical implications of the two approaches for poverty reduction efforts the impact of growth on basic social indicators and how national achievement on social indicators is best measured sri lanka and pakistan countries often cited in this debate are used as examples

estimating the effect of tax reform in differentiated product oligopolistic markets abstract the incidence of taxation has been extensively discussed in the public finance literature but mainly within a competitive market setting or within a homogenous good cournot type oligopoly in a differentiated product oligopoly the effect of taxation can be more complex as the rate of taxation may affect not only the prices but also the profile and quality of products that are sold in the market in this paper we examine the effects of changing tax regimes in a differentiated product oligopoly in order to illustrate our approach we employ data from one such market the automobile market in israel

tax changes and cigarette prices the recurring question of the difference between specific and ad valorem taxes has recently been revived by barzel 1976 who argued p 1185 that when quality is not fully controlled the effects of the two types of taxes differ radically the excise tax induces a substitution of quality for quantity resulting in a greater increase in the price per unit than predicted by the constant quality model the ad valorem tax induces a reduction in quality and lower after tax price than predicted evidence consistent with these hypotheses is found in the response of cigarette prices to tax changes in the further tests reported by johnson 1978 prices rise significantly less than the tax in new hampshire where the state tax was ad valorem and significantly more in the remaining states which impose specific taxes the purpose of this note is to question not barzel s analysis but rather the interpretation of the evidence on the pedestrian grounds of implausibility as barzel himself observes p 1194 n 32 the size of new hampshire makes it unlikely that cigarettes would be tailormade for it the scope for removing characteristics is quite limited then the scope for adding characteristics in other states seems equally limited to avoid misunderstanding it should be emphasized that the hypothesized variations in quality are a supply side phenomenon not a demand side response to the relative cheapening of superior brands when a specific tax is increased johnson s estimates imply that the 90 increase in the new hampshire tax over the period 1954 76 should have reduced the net price by 3 6 ceteris paribus the slightly larger mean tax increase in the remaining 48 continental states should have raised net price by 0 90 what changes in the quality of the services sold with cigarettes could have justified such a differential what are the observable counterparts of the tax changes in the absence of a convincing answer to those questions the estimated response of cigarette prices to taxes represents a fact in search of a theory

user cost elasticity of capital revisited researchers still lack consensus about the size of the user cost elasticity of capital the divergence in prior estimates may have arisen because one of the two strands of research has neglected cointegration among capital its user costs and sales using german firm level panel data i show that estimating a distributed lag model prevalent in prior literature leads to low estimates of the user cost elasticity properly accounting for cointegration in an error correction model yields a much larger point estimate of the price elasticity of capital close to 1 non random sample attrition is found to be relatively unimportant

open access and the evolution of the u s spot market for natural gas federal regulations promoting open access transportation dramatically altered the organizational structure of the u s market for natural gas in the 1980s generally unbundling the merchant and transport functions of interstate pipelines an empirical analysis of wellhead spot prices is undertaken to examine the effect of open access on the geographic scope of the spot market using monthly spot price data from 1984 91 three statistical tests are applied and compared price correlations granger causality and cointegration we find that open access integrated the regional wellhead markets into a national competitive market for natural gas the effects of unbundling on contracts for natural gas are then investigated incentives for long term contracts between pipelines and producers are shown to be effectively removed by the introduction of competitive buying and selling of gas at the wellhead through open access

taxes and the quality of capital abstract this paper shows that tax policy toward investment by changing the relative prices of capital varieties even within narrow classes of equipment can have a direct effect on the quality composition of capital goods that firms purchase detailed data on farming mining and construction machinery suggest that this impact is economically important firms significantly shift investment toward higher quality varieties when they receive investment subsidies and do not do so when investment is high for other reasons in the aggregate all of the new investment generated by tax subsidies appears to come from firms shifting to higher quality capital goods rather than buying a larger number of their existing capital types the paper also applies a methodology for calculating the implied deadweight loss from the quality distortion and shows that its magnitude may represent a substantial efficiency cost from capital taxation that is neglected in conventional work

international real business cycles we ask whether a two country real business cycle model can account simultaneously for domestic and international aspects of business cycles with this question in mind we document a number of discrepancies between theory and data the most striking discrepancy concerns the correlations of consumption and output across countries in the data outputs are generally more highly correlated across countries than consumptions in the model we see the opposite

quantifying quality growth we introduce an instrumental variables approach to estimate the importance of unmeasured quality growth for a set of 66 durable consumer goods our instrument is based on predicting which of these 66 goods will display rapid quality growth using pooled cross relatively sections of households in the 1980 through 1996 u s consumer expenditure surveys we estimate quality engel curves for 66 durable consumer goods based on the extent richer households pay more for a good conditional on purchasing we use the slopes of these curves to predict the rate of quality upgrading just as if households are ascending these quality engel curves over time we find that the average price paid rises faster for goods with steeper quality slopes bls prices likewise increase more quickly for goods with steeper quality slopes suggesting the bls does not fully net out the impact of quality upgrading on prices paid we estimate that quality growth averages about 3 7 per year for our goods with about 60 of this or 2 2 per year showing up as higher inflation rather than higher real growth

emerging market business cycles learning about the trend abstract emerging market business cycles feature a higher variability of consumption relative to output and a strongly countercyclical trade balance an equilibrium business cycle model in which agents learn to distinguish between the permanent and transitory components of total factor productivity shocks using the kalman filter accounts for these features calibrated to mexico the model accounts for the behavior of consumption and the trade balance for a wide range of variability and persistence of permanent shocks relative to transitory shocks estimation for mexico and canada suggests more severe informational frictions in emerging markets than in developed economies