estimation of a taiwan monetary reaction function with time varying parameters this paper employs a nonlinear kalman filter to examine the time varying responses of taiwan s monetary policy in the presence of a limited dependent variable the kalman filtered parameters reveal that the responses are not constant but change over time furthermore a counter cyclical reaction function is identified and a stronger than usual discretionary policy during the recessions is found

optimal pricing and lot sizing under conditions of perishability finite production and partial backordering and lost sale abstract perishable products constitute a sizable component of inventories common questions in a production and selling situation involving a perishable or a non perishable product are what should be the price and what should be the size of the replenishment when demand for the product is price sensitive pricing and lot sizing decisions are interdependent similarly when a product is highly perishable the demand may need to be backlogged to avoid costs due to deterioration i e perishability and backlogging are complementary conditions in this paper we consider the pricing and lot sizing problem for a perishable good under finite production exponential decay and partial backordering and lost sale the backlogging phenomenon in the literature is often modeled using backordering and lost sale costs these cost parameters however are not easy to estimate in practice in this paper we use a new approach to model backlogging of demand in this approach customers are viewed to be impatient the backlogging option gets used only when it is economic to do so we extend the analysis presented for a perishable product to the case in which the product is non perishable

a deterministic inventory model for deteriorating items with stock dependent demand rate abstract a deterministic inventory model is developed by assuming that the demand rate is stock dependent and the items deteriorate at a constant rate the expression for the average net profit over one production run is derived and its optimization with respect to the decision variables q initial stock and t duration of a production cycle is carried out this leads to two highly nonlinear equations which are solved by using a subroutine neqnf in imsl math library in cyber 180 480a computer system the optimal solution so derived is compared with that for the no deterioration 0 case sensitivity of the optimal solution to changes in parameter values is examined several aspects of the functional form for the demand rate are considered in a separate section finally the salient features of the problem and its solution are discussed in brief

a comparison among various partial backlogging inventory lot size models for deteriorating items on the basis of maximum profit abstract during the past few years there are many researches that deal with different inventory shortage models for deteriorating items and then use minimizing cost as objective to find the optimal replenishment policy over a finite planning horizon in contrast to the other articles we here use maximizing profit as the objective to find the optimal replenishment policy we consider the case of partial backlogging for deteriorating items with four different inventory models not only the opportunity cost due to lost sale but also the purchase cost is taken into account we then make an appropriate comparison among these four alternatives finally some numerical examples are provided

analysis of an inventory system with exponential partial backordering abstract in this paper we study an inventory model with partial backlogging where unsatisfied demand is partially backlogged according to an exponential function in this model the total cost is the sum of the order cost the holding cost the backorder cost which includes a fixed cost and a cost proportional to the length of time for which the backorder exists and the cost of lost sales a general approach for finding the optimal policy is developed numerical examples are used to illustrate how the approach works

money growth output gaps and inflation at low and high frequency spectral estimates for switzerland abstract while central banks generally have abandoned monetary targeting many continue to attach weight to monetary aggregates in setting policy this raises the issue of how money can be combined with other variables when analysing inflation we decompose inflation in switzerland into two frequency bands and show that inflation is granger caused by monetary factors at low frequencies defined as those corresponding to periodicities of more than 4 years but is granger caused by the output gap at high frequencies we also estimate phillips curve models that are augmented by the low frequency components of the monetary factors

pricing and lot sizing polices for perishable goods when the demand depends on selling price displayed stocks and expiration date abstract price is a major factor on the demand based on marketing and economic theory in addition the demand for perishable products also depends on its freshness moreover it is a well known fact that increasing stock display e g fresh fruits vegetables baked goods may encourage consumers to purchase more this paper first proposes an inventory model that stipulates the demand explicitly in a multivariate function of price freshness and displayed stocks it may be profitable to have a closeout sale at a markdown price and always keep on hand displayed stocks fresh and plentiful if the demand is freshness and stock dependent hence the traditional assumption of zero ending inventories is relaxed to a non zero ending inventory as a result the objective is to determine three decision variables i e unit price cycle time and ending inventory level in order to maximize the total profit then it is demonstrated that the total profit is strictly pseudo concave in those three decision variables which reduces the search for solutions to a unique local maximum finally numerical examples to illustrate the theoretical results and to highlight managerial insights are presented

optimal ordering and pricing policies in a single period environment with multivariate demand and markdowns this paper investigates a single period inventory model in which the demand of the product is a deterministic multivariate function of price time and level of inventory models are formulated for the basic pricing case and the case with a price markdown during the season solution methodologies are presented for each case when the pricing decisions are predetermined and when they are decision variables comments on the practical use of this model are presented and sensitivity analysis is conducted on the decision variables and demand parameters

optimal dynamic pricing for deteriorating items with reference price effects when inventories stimulate demand abstract in this paper we incorporate reference price effects into a deteriorating inventory problem when the demand rate depends on displayed stock level and selling price simultaneously reference price effects are formed empirically by customers to adjust current price perception on the basis of past purchases the market demand is assumed to be responsive to the difference between the current selling price and the reference price which is perceived as a loss or a gain we consider three scenarios of market demand loss neutrality loss aversion and loss seeking an optimal dynamic pricing model is established to determine a pricing strategy maximizing the discounted total profit over an infinite time horizon theoretical results are derived to demonstrate the existence of the optimal solutions and to explore the relationships between optimal pricing decisions and an initial reference price based on mild assumptions numerical example and sensitivity analysis are presented to illustrate the theoretical results and managerial insights finally concluding remarks are offered

testing the liquidity effect with equilibrium interest rate we examine the existence of liquidity effects by using the equilibrium interest rates estimated from the disequilibrium analysis instead of the observed interest rate the use of equilibrium interest rates allows us to take the growth rate in the money supply as being exogenous and circumvent the identification problem away following the traditional ar model and the method proposed by hamilton 1997 we obtain evidences showing the negative relationship between the equilibrium interest rate and the growth rate in money supply

an eoq model with stock dependent demand shortage inflation and time discounting abstract this paper develops a finite time horizon deterministic economic order quantity eoq inventory model with shortages where the demand rate at any instant depends on the on hand inventory stock level at that instant the effects of inflation and the time value of money are taken into account considering two separate inflation rates namely the internal company inflation rate and the external general economy inflation rate the results are discussed with a numerical example and particular case of the model is discussed in brief a sensitivity analysis of the optimal solution with respect to the parameters of the system is carried out

inventory model with stock level dependent demand rate and variable holding cost inventory models in which the demand rate depends on the inventory level are based on the common real life observation that greater product availability tends to stimulate more sales previous models incorporating inventory level dependent demand rate assume that the holding cost is constant for the entire inventory cycle this paper considers the inventory policy for an item with a stock level dependent demand rate and a storage time dependent holding cost the holding cost per unit of the item per unit time is assumed to be an increasing function of the time spent in storage two time dependent holding cost step functions are considered retroactive holding cost increase and incremental holding cost increase procedures are developed for determining the optimal order quantity and the optimal cycle time for both cost structures

optimal ordering and transfer policy for an inventory with stock dependent demand abstract this paper deals with an ordering transfer inventory model to determine the retailer s optimal order quantity and the number of transfers per order from the warehouse to the display area it is assumed that the amount of display space is limited and the demand rate depends on the display stock level the objective is to maximize the average profit per unit time yielded by the retailer the proposed models and algorithms are developed to find the optimal strategy by retailer numerical examples are presented to illustrate the models developed and the sensitivity analysis is also reported

partial backlogging inventory lot size models for deteriorating items with fluctuating demand under inflation abstract in this paper the traditional inventory lot size model is extended to allow not only for general partial backlogging rate but also for inflation the assumptions of equal cycle length and constant shortage length imposed in the model developed by moon et al moon i giri b c ko b 2005 economic order quantity models for ameliorating deteriorating items under inflation and time discounting european journal of operational research 162 3 773 785 are also relaxed for any given number of replenishment cycles the existence of a unique optimal replenishment schedule is proved and further the convexity of the total cost function of the inventory system in the number of replenishments is established the theoretical results here amend those in yang et al yang h l teng j t chern m s 2001 deterministic inventory lot size models under inflation with shortages and deterioration for fluctuating demand naval research logistics 48 2 144 158 and provide the solution to those two counterexamples by skouri and papachristos skouri k papachristos s 2002 note on deterministic inventory lot size models under inflation with shortages and deterioration for fluctuating demand by yang et al naval research logistics 49 5 527 529 finally we propose an algorithm to find the solution and obtain some managerial results by using sensitivity analyses

an inventory model for deteriorating items with stock dependent consumption rate and shortages under inflation and time discounting this paper derives an inventory model for deteriorating items with stock dependent consumption rate and shortages under inflation and time discounting over a finite planning horizon we show that the total cost function is convex with the convexity a simple solution algorithm is presented to determine the optimal order quantity and the optimal interval of the total cost function the results are discussed with a numerical example and particular cases of the model are discussed in brief a sensitivity analysis of the optimal solution with respect to the parameters of the system is carried out

the identification of monetary policy disturbances explaining the liquidity puzzle abstract this paper examines recent work on the identification of monetary policy disturbances its main finding is that the empirical anomalies found in the literature reflect a failure to properly address the federal reserve s policy of accommodating reserve demand shocks a new method of identifying monetary policy using nonborrowed reserves is proposed using this specification policy has a strong persistent liquidity effect regardless of subsample policy granger causes output even in the presence of interest rates explaining approximately 49 of the variance in output at a two year horizon and the residual explanatory power of interest rates for output is negligible

rethinking the liquidity puzzle application of a new measure of the economic money stock historically attempts to solve the liquidity puzzle have focused on narrowly defined monetary aggregates such as non borrowed reserves the monetary base or m1 many of these efforts have failed to find a short term negative correlation between interest rates and monetary policy innovations more recent research uses sophisticated macroeconomic and econometric modeling however little research has investigated the role measurement error plays in the liquidity puzzle since in nearly every case work investigating the liquidity puzzle has used one of the official monetary aggregates which have been shown to exhibit significant measurement error this paper examines the role that measurement error plays in the liquidity puzzle by i providing a theoretical framework explaining how the official simple sum methodology can lead to a liquidity puzzle and ii testing for the liquidity effect by estimating an unrestricted var

economy wide estimates of the implications of climate change sea level rise the economy wide implications of sea level rise in 2050 are estimated using a static computable general equilibrium model this allows for a better estimate of the welfare effects of sea level rise than the common direct cost estimates and for an estimate of the impact of sea level rise on greenhouse gas emissions overall general equilibrium effects increase the welfare costs of sea level rise but not necessarily in every sector or region in the absence of coastal protection economies that rely most on agriculture are hit hardest although energy is substituted for land overall energy consumption falls with the shrinking economy hurting energy exporters with full coastal protection gdp increases particularly in regions with substantial dike building but utility falls least in regions that protect their coasts and export energy energy prices rise and energy consumption falls the costs of full protection exceed the costs of losing land the results also show direct costs the usual method for estimating welfare changes due to sea level rise are a bad approximation of the general equilibrium welfare effects previous estimates of the economic impact of sea level rise are therefore biased

does the federal reserve affect asset prices abstract the federal reserve is probably one of the institutions most closely monitored by investors this indicates that investors believe the actions of the fed have implications for asset prices to this date the trading activities of the fed in the financial markets have not been examined to see how the fed influences asset prices using daily data on open market operations omos and asset prices this study fills this void one finding of the paper is that omos granger cause both short and long term interest rates furthermore the sign of the relationship confirms the existence of the liquidity effect given that its trades represent a small portion of the market volume how the fed influences bond prices is a puzzle the only reasonable explanation is that the fed s trades have high information content judging by the impulse response paths the reaction of interest rates to open market operations is fast additionally it appears that monetary policy has a lasting impact on interest rates

the vanishing liquidity effect of money on interest analysis and implications for policy this paper seeks to re examine the effects of money on interest rates the earlier literature on this topic determined fairly well the pattern of response of interest rates to changes in money growth the notable studies of cagan 1972 cagan and gandolfi 1969 and gibson 1970 served to establish the professions stylized pattern as presented in section i section ii presents new evidence on the subject and finds that the old empirical generalizations no longer hold specifically the results suggest that the initial liquidity effect of faster money growth is likely to be offset within the month following the monetary policy change sections iii and iv investigate the reasons for the changing pattern of monetary effects on interest rates and discuss the policy implications of the new pattern

cash setting the call loan rate and the liquidity effect in canada in this paper we use the vector autoregression method to examine the effects of monetary policy in canada including in particular the empirical evidence of the liquidity effect we use the excess cash reserves of the chartered banks and the surprise component of excess cash reserves as measures of liquidity shocks to monetary policy are measured by the orthogonalized innovations to the liquidity variables and by the orthogonalized innovations to the call loan rate we find that the effects of these shocks conform to monetary policy shocks and the results support the presence of the liquidity effect in canada

federal reserve operating procedures a survey and evaluation of the historical record since october 1979 comment william poole has produced another thoughtful and thought provoking paper two major conclusions emerge from his work first the instability of growth in m1b since october 1979 can be attributed largely to a reluctance by the federal reserve to permit wide enough swings in the federal funds rate second to correct this problem and to promote greater stability in financial markets and the economy the fed ought to replace lagged with contemporaneous reserve accounting and reform the discount window they should then begin to hit a nonborrowed base or reserves target that grows at a steady rate i will organize my comments around these two conclusions i will not comment directly on the other excellent paper in this session by ralph c bryant i will refer to some of bryant s empirical work though in my discussion of the poole paper poole attributes the continued extensive volatility of m1b growth since october 1979 to efforts by the federal reserve to smooth interest rates he concedes that the fed really has let go the federal funds rate to a very considerable extent but he believes that variability in m1b growth over tonger periods is due primarily to the important role accorded interest rates in federal reserve policy making italics mine he cites four reasons for believing that the post october 1979 targeting procedures qualitatively are not very different from the federal funds targeting procedure followed earlier of the four the most interesting and empirically verifiable is that in nearly one third of the weeks since october 1979 the federal funds rate has averaged within 100 basis points of either the bottom or the top of the widened target range during these weeks the constraint on the funds rate might have prevented the fed from hitting its nonborrowed reserves target poole in fact accepts this view uncritically

stabilizing monetary injection policies abstract the primary concern of this paper is understanding how prices and interest rates respond to open market operations in a model economy developed by grossman and weiss but with more general utility functions we establish global existence of equilibrium paths and observe that prices and interest rates rise initially but thereafter oscillate around a new steady state also investigated are optimal monetary policies wherein injections take place in more than one time period and corresponding to which the equilibrium prices are most stable existence of such policies is established by mathematical analysis and its detailed structure explored by numerical simulation journal of economic literature classification numbers e50 e52

afforestation and timber management compliance strategies in climate policy a computable general equilibrium analysis abstract this paper analyzes the role of forest based carbon sequestration in a unilateral eu27 emissions reduction policy under a global computable general equilibrium cge framework forestry mitigation is introduced into the model relying on carbon sequestration curves provided by a global forestry model the structure of the original cge is extended to consider land use change and timber supply effects resulting from the use of forest sinks to reduce carbon emissions results show that afforestation and timber management could lead to substantially lower policy costs by using forest carbon sinks it is possible to achieve the 30 emissions reduction target with an additional european effort of only 0 2 of gdp compared with the cost of a 20 emissions reduction without forestry carbon price is also reduced by approximately 30 in 2020 european forest carbon sequestration may have however the perverse effect of increasing timber production in areas of the world which already have high deforestation rates a sensitivity analysis on main parameters confirms the robustness of our results

carbon footprint taxes we analyze whether a carbon consumption tax is logistically feasible we consider a carbon footprint tax cft which would be modeled after a credit method value added tax the basis for the tax would be a product s carbon footprint which includes all of the emissions released during production of the good and its inputs as well as any greenhouse gases latent in the product our analysis suggests that a pure cft requiring the calculation of the carbon footprint of every individual product may be prohibitively costly however a hybrid cft seems economically feasible the hybrid cft would give firms the option to either calculate the carbon footprint of their outputs and have their products taxed based on those footprints or use product class specific default carbon footprints as the tax basis thereby saving on calculation costs because the cft would be levied on all goods consumed domestically the cft would keep domestic firms on an even footing with those producing in countries without active climate policy protecting competitiveness and reducing leakage

inflation and the optimal inventory replenishment schedule within a finite planning horizon abstract the subject of this paper is the problem of finding the optimal replenishment schedule for an inventory subject to time dependent demand and deterioration within a finite time planning horizon it is shown that taking inflation into account has a profound effect on the solution of the problem for instance there is a critical number of replenishment periods in excess of which the optimal schedule is characterized by the inclusion of token orders at the end of the planning horizon this and other conclusions obtained via a careful mathematical analysis of the problem rectify those of earlier studies

an inventory model under inflation for deteriorating items with stock dependent consumption rate and partial backlogging shortages abstract in this paper we extend teng j t chang h j dye c y hung c h 2002 an optimal replenishment policy for deteriorating items with time varying demand and partial backlogging operations research letters 30 6 387 393 and hou k l 2006 an inventory model for deteriorating items with stock dependent consumption rate and shortages under inflation and time discounting european journal of operational research 168 2 463 474 by considering an inventory lot size model under inflation for deteriorating items with stock dependent consumption rate when shortages are partial backlogging the proposed model allows for 1 partial backlogging 2 time varying replenishment cycles and 3 time varying shortage intervals consequently the proposed model is in a general framework that includes numerous previous models as special cases we then prove that the optimal replenishment schedule exists uniquely and provide a good estimate for finding the optimal replenishment number furthermore we briefly discuss some special cases of the proposed model related to previous models finally numerical examples to illustrate the solution process and some managerial implications are provided

modeling loss aversion and reference dependence effects on brand choice based upon a recently developed multiattribute generalization of prospect theory s value function tversky and kahneman 1991 we argue that consumer choice is influenced by the position of brands relative to multiattribute reference points and that consumers weigh losses from a reference point more than equivalent sized gains loss aversion we sketch implications of this model for understanding brand choice we develop a multinomial logit formulation of a reference dependent choice model calibrating it using scanner data in addition to providing better fit in both estimation and forecast periods than a standard multinomial logit model the model s coefficients demonstrate significant loss aversion as hypothesized we also discuss the implications of a reference dependent view of consumer choice for modeling brand choice demonstrate that loss aversion can account for asymmetric responses to changes in product characteristics and examine other implications for competitive strategy

on low frequency estimates of long run relationships in macroeconomics abstract a number of recent studies have attempted to test propositions concerning long run economic relationships by means of frequency domain time series techniques that concentrate attention on low frequency comovements of variables the present paper emphasizes that many of these propositions involve expectational relationships that are not inherently related to specific frequencies or periodicities thus the association of low frequency time series test statistics with long run economic propositions is not generally warranted that such an association can be misleading is demonstrated by analysis of examples taken from notable papers by geweke lucas and summers

review of inventory systems with deterioration since 2001 abstract this paper presents an up to date review of the advances made in the field of inventory control of perishable items deteriorating inventory the last extensive review on this topic dates back to 2001 goyal s k and giri b c recent trends in modeling of deteriorating inventory european journal of operational research 134 1 16 since then over two hundred articles on this subject have been published in the major journals on inventory control indicating the need for a new review we use the classification of goyal and giri based on shelf life characteristics and demand characteristics contributions are highlighted by discussing main system characteristics including price discounts backordering or lost sales single or multiple items one or two warehouses single or multi echelon average cost or discounted cash flow and payment delay

monetary policy and long term interest rates an efficient markets approach abstract this paper is an application of efficient markets theory to analyze empirically the relationship of money supply growth and long term interest rates this approach has the advantage over calier research on this subject in that it imposes a theoretical structure on this relationship that flows easier interpretation of the empirical results as well as more powerful statistical tests on the interest of ascertaining the robustness of the results many different empirical tests are carried out in this paper and they uniformly do not support the preposition that increases in the money supply are correlated with declines in long rates

joint pricing and inventory control for fresh produce and foods with quality and physical quantity deteriorating simultaneously abstract a great number of models have been proposed to investigate the deterioration inventory however most of models assume that a fixed physical quantity of items deteriorates over time the quality of items does not decay before their expiration dates in practice the quality and physical quantity of many products including fresh produce and foods often deteriorate over time the quality of an item usually plays an important role in influencing the demand for products in this paper we consider the pricing and lot sizing problem for products with quality and physical quantity deteriorating simultaneously the deterioration rate of quality and physical quantity is taken to be time proportional the demand rate is assumed to be deterministic and dependent on the quality of an item the selling price per unit and the on display stock level the theory for finding the optimal solution of problem is discussed and numerical examples are used to illustrate the model and the solution procedure finally sensitivity analysis of the optimal solution with respect to price sensitive parameter and values of different deterioration functions is carried out

money creation and the shadow banking system many explanations for the rapid growth of the shadow banking system in the mid2000s focus on money demand this paper asks whether the short term liabilities of the shadow banking system behave like money we rst present a simple model where households demand money services which are supplied by three types of claims deposits treasury bills and asset backed commercial paper abcp the model provides predictions for the price and quantity dynamics of these claims as well as the behavior of the banking system in terms of issuance and the monetary authority in terms of open market operations consistent with the model the empirical evidence suggests that the shadow banking system does respond to money demand

global sensitivity analysis in inventory management abstract this paper deals with the sensitivity analysis sa of inventory management models when uncertainty in the input parameters is given full consideration we make use of sobol function and variance decomposition method for determining the most influential parameters on the model output we first illustrate the method by means of an analytical example we provide the expression of the global importance of demand holding costs order costs of the harris economic order quantity eoq formula we then present the global sa of the inventory management model developed by luciano and peccati 1999 capital structure and inventory management the temporary sale problem international journal of production economics 59 169 178 for the economic order quantity estimation in the context of the temporary sale problem we show that by performing global sa in parallel to the modeling process an analyst derives insights not only on the eoq structure when its expression is not analytically known but also on the relevance of modeling choices as the inclusion of financing policies and special orders

optimal price and order size under partial backordering incorporating shortage backorder and lost sale costs abstract in this paper we consider the pricing and lot sizing problem for a product subject to general rate of deterioration and partial backordering we use impatience functions to model backlogging of demand we show that even when lost sale and backorder costs are present the problem is well posed in the reduced space we provide an iterative procedure for solving the overall problem we describe structural properties of the solution for the new model and comment on the recent work incorporating backorder cost we illustrate the solution procedure for the new model with examples

the costs of carbon sequestration a revealed preference approach increased concem by policy makers with the threat of global climate change has brought with it considerable attention to the possibility of encouraging the growth of forests as a means of sequestering carbon dioxide national academy of sciences nas 1992 james p bruce et al 1996 1 the kyoto protocol to the united nations framework convention on climate change 1997 which establishes emission reduction targets for the united states and other industrialized nations states that carbon sequestration can be used by participating nations to achieve their targets moreover even before the kyoto agreement this approach had become an explicit element of both u s and intemational climate policies u s department of energy 1991 united nations general assembly 1992 william j clinton and albert gore 1993 this high level of interest has been due in part to suggestions that sufficient lands are available to use the approach to mitigate a substantial share of annual carbon dioxide c02 emissions greg marland 1988 daniel a lashof and dennis a tirpak 1989 mark c trexler 1991 and claims that growing trees to sequester carbon is a relatively inexpensive means of combating climate change roger a sedjo and allen m solomon 1989 daniel j dudek and alice leblanc 1990 nas 1992 in other words the serious attention given by policy makers to carbon sequestration can partly be explained by implicit assertions about respective marginal cost functions i develop and demonstrate a method by which the costs of carbon sequestration can be estimated on the basis of evidence from landowners behavior when confronted with the opportunity costs of alternative land uses the simplest of previous economic analyses derived single point estimates of average costs associated with particular sequestration levels marland 1988 sedjo and solomon 1989 dudek and leblanc 1990 edwin s rubin et al 1992 omar masera et al 1995 often it has been assumed that land opportunity costs are zero g van kooten et al 1992 j k winjum et al 1992 new york state energy office 1993 robert k dixon et al 1994 another set of studies essentially engineering costing models has constructed marginal cost schedules by using information on revenues and costs of production for altemative uses on representative types or locations of land and then sorting these in ascending order of cost robert j moulton and kenneth r richards 1990 richards et al 1993 simulation models include a model of the lost profits due to removing land from agricultural production peter j parks and ian w hardie 1995 a mathematical programming model of the agricultural sector and the timber market richard m adams et al 1993 a related model incorporating the effects of agricultural price support programs j m callaway and bruce mccarl 1996 and a dynamic simulation model of forestry susan swinehart 1996 lastly an analysis by andrew j plantinga 1995 adopts land use elasticities from an econometric study to estimate sequestration costs we draw on some of the best features of the previous studies including the carbon levelization method of moulton and richards john f kennedy school of government harvard university 79 john f kennedy street cambridge ma 02138 and resources for the future richard newell supplied excellent research assistance and valuable comments on a previous version were provided by lawrence goulder william nordhaus andrew plantinga kenneth richards two anonymous referees participants in seminars at the universities of california at los angeles and santa barbara the university of maryland the university of michigan the university of texas harvard university stanford university yale university resources for the future and the national bureau of economic research the author alone is resdonsible for any errors 1 after fossil fuel combustion deforestation is the second largest source of carbon dioxide emissions estimates of annual global emissions from deforestation range from 0 6 to 2 8 billion tons compared with slightly less than 6 0 billion tons annually from fossil fuel combustion cement manufacturing and natural gas flaring combined r a houghton 1991 t m smith et al 1993

joint pricing and inventory control for non instantaneous deteriorating items with partial backlogging and time and price dependent demand abstract in this paper a joint pricing and inventory control for non instantaneous deteriorating items is developed we adopt a price and time dependent demand function shortages is allowed and partially backlogged the major objective is to determine the optimal selling price the optimal replenishment schedule and the optimal order quantity simultaneously such that the total profit is maximized we first show that for any given selling price optimal replenishment schedule exists and unique then we show that the total profit is a concave function of price next we present a simple algorithm to find the optimal solution finally we solve a numerical example to illustrate the solution procedure and the algorithm

in search of the liquidity effect abstract a short run negative relationship between monetary aggregates and interest rates the liquidity effect is central to discussions of monetary policy this paper searches for this empirical relationship we investigate whether the characterization of the liquidity effect is sensitive to i changes in sample period ii conditioning the correlations on past information iii assuming money growth is exogenous and iv treating monetary changes as anticipated or unanticipated the correlations change substantially in each case we conclude that the traditional analysis and modern models which rely completely on demand side behavior cannot explain the observed correlations a successful characterization of the liquidity effect requires identification of both private and policy behavior

retailer s optimal pricing and lot sizing policies for deteriorating items with partial backlogging pricing is a major strategy for a retailer to obtain its maximum profit therefore in this paper we establish an economic order quantity model for a retailer to determine its optimal selling price replenishment number and replenishment schedule with partial backlogging we first prove that the optimal replenishment schedule not only exists but also is unique for any given selling price next we show that the total profit is a concave function of p when the replenishment number and schedule are given we then provide a simple algorithm to find the optimal selling price replenishment number and replenishment timing for the proposed model finally we use a couple of numerical examples to illustrate the algorithm

has the effect of money shocks on interest rates really vanished further evidence of the liquidity effect the liquidity effect of money shocks on the short term interest rate has been an integral part of traditional macroeconomic policies and has witnessed renewed interest in recent years the paper reports contrary to some previous work extensive evidence of the effect in several non g7 countries using the single equation distributed lag garch p q estimation and the systems var estimation the liquidity effect is shown to be alive and well in a sample of nine countries and this will shed much light on policy implications

the effect of money shocks on interest rates in the presence of conditional heteroskedasticity most current empirical work finds no evidence that money shocks lower interest rates we show that these nonresults are mainly due to a failure to model the conditional heteroskedasticity of interest rates autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity arch models find a significant liquidity effect where ordinary least squares ols models do not the existence of a liquidity effect is found using different models and sample periods when arch models are used in estimation but never when ols is employed

economic ordering policy for deteriorating items over an infinite time horizon abstract in this paper a total cost model is presented for the inventory problem of deteriorating items a constant fraction of on hand inventory at the beginning of a period deteriorates during the period the demand for the items during a period is supplied at the end of the period however shortages accumulated during a scheduling period are supplied at the start of the next scheduling period an approach is suggested for determining economic ordering policy for the case of time varying demand and a search procedure is developed when demand is constant in each period

forestry and the carbon market response to stabilize climate abstract this paper investigates the potential contribution of forestry management in meeting a co2 stabilization policy of 550 ppmv by 2100 in order to assess the optimal response of the carbon market to forest sequestration we couple two global models an energy economy climate model for the study of climate policies is linked with a detailed forestry model through an iterative procedure to provide the optimal abatement strategy results show that forestry is a determinant abatement option and could lead to significantly lower policy costs if included linking forestry management to the carbon market has the potential to alleviate the policy burden of 50 ppmv or equivalently of 1 4 c and to significantly decrease the price of carbon biological sequestration will mostly come from avoided deforestation in tropical forest rich countries the inclusion of this mitigation option is demonstrated to crowd out some of the traditional abatement in the energy sector and to lessen induced technological change in clean technologies

differential importance and comparative statics an application to inventory management abstract in this work we deal with the problem of establishing which parameters impact an inventory policy the most a new sensitivity measure is introduced by relating the differential importance d and the comparative statics cs techniques we discuss the properties of the new indicator and show that it shares the additivity property we provide the expression of for optimization models numerical results are offered for the sensitivity analysis of a recently introduced inventory management model

carbon leakage revisited unilateral climate policy with directed technical change using a stylized theoretical model we argue that current economic analyses of climate policy tend to over estimate the degree of carbon leakage as they abstract from the effects of induced technological change we analyse carbon leakage in a two country model with directed technical change where only one of the countries enforces an exogenous cap on emissions climate policy induces changes in relative prices that cause carbon leakage through a terms of trade effect however these changes in relative prices also affect the incentives to innovate in different sectors this leads to a counterbalancing induced technology effect which always reduces carbon leakage we therefore conclude that the leakage rates reported in the literature may be too high as these estimates neglect the effect of price changes on the incentives to innovate

monetary policy and short term interest rates an efficient markets rational expectations approach this paper is an application of efficient markets rational expectations theory to analyze empirically the relationship of money supply growth and short term interest rates a hotly debated issue in the literature this approach has the advantage over earlier research on this subject in that it imposes a theoretical structure that allows easier interpretation of the empirical results as well as more powerful statistical tests the empirical results uniformly do not support the proposition that increases in money growth are correlated with declines in short rates the relationship between money supply growth and nominal interest rates is a hotly debated issue in the literature one view associated with keynesian structural macromodels has an increase in money growth leading at least in the short and medium runs to a decline in interest rates 2 an alternative view associated with milton friedman 6 7 indicates that interest rates might rise in response to higher money growth because there is a rise in inflationary expectations and hence a rise in interest rates through a fisher 5 effect

climate change policy market structure and carbon leakage abstract the 1997 kyoto protocol on climate change obliges the industrialized countries to initiate the international effort of abating anthropogenic greenhouse gas ghg emissions if such an initiative is to be taken the associated competitive effects may lead to significant relocation of developed countries energy intensive production this paper examines this issue i adopt an oligopolistic structure combined with increasing returns to scale production technologies to represent the strategic interaction among the firms producing energy intensive products this representation is then embedded within a multi regional computable general equilibrium model which in turn is used for quantifying these relocational effects the results suggest that significant relocation of energy intensive industries away from the oecd may occur depending on the type of market structure with leakage rates as high as 130 in which case ghg control policies in the industrialized countries actually lead to higher global emissions

economic costs and impacts of climate induced sea level rise and storm surge in canadian coastal provinces a cge approach abstractwe estimated the economic costs and impacts of future sea level rise slr and storm surge due to climate change in canada s coastal provinces using regional dynamic computable general equilibrium models that track provincial welfare gdp trade prices and inputs over the 2009 2054 period we also assessed the economic costs of coastal adaptation investments to determine whether such investments can be justified on economic grounds results indicated that slr and storm surge could cost canada in the range of 4 6 25 5 billion in present value welfare and between 53 7 and 108 7 billion in present value gdp we found significant variation in costs and impacts across coastal provinces with some provinces such as newfoundland and labrador experiencing only marginal costs impacts and others such as british columbia experiencing costs as high as 21 billion in welfare over the period coastal adaptation investments were supported on economics grounds overall this study provides the first and

production inventory models for a damageable item with variable demands and inventory costs in an imperfect production process in this paper economic production quantity epq models for breakable or deteriorating item are developed with variable demands being dependent on time or on hand stock here rate of production and holding cost are time dependent unit production cost is a function of both production reliability indicator and production rate set up cost is also partially production rate dependent the production process produces some imperfect quantities which are instantly reworked at a cost to bring back those units to the perfect ones the production process ultimately depends on both time and reliability indicator the models are formulated as optimal control problems and the total profit functions with effect of inflation and time value of money are expressed as finite integrals over the finite planning horizon the problems are solved using euler lagrange function based on variational calculus and newton raphson method to determine the optimal production reliability indicator r and then corresponding production rates and total profits in some cases results of the models for deteriorating item are obtained as particular cases from those of breakable item models similarly results of simple epq models without damageability are deduced as particular cases numerical experiments are performed to illustrate the models both numerically and graphically

a comparison between two pricing and lot sizing models with partial backlogging and deteriorated items abstract recently abad 2003 optimal pricing and lot sizing under conditions of perishability finite production and partial backordering and lost sale european journal of operational research 144 677 685 studied the pricing and lot sizing problem for a perishable good under finite production exponential decay partial backordering and lost sale in this article we extend his model by adding not only the backlogging cost but also the cost of lost goodwill we then analytically compare the net profits per unit time between abad s 2003 model and goyal and giri s 2003 the production inventory problem of a product with time varying demand production and deterioration rates european journal of operational research 147 549 557 model in abad s model the cycle starts with an instant production to accumulate stocks then stops production to use up stocks and finally restarts production to meet the unsatisfied demands by contrast in goyal and giri s model the cycle begins with a period of shortages then starts production until accumulated inventory reaches certain level and finally stops production and uses up inventory our theoretical results show that there is no dominant one between these two models furthermore we provide certain conditions under which one model has more net profit per unit time than the other finally we give several numerical examples to illustrate the results

discounting and dynamic shelf life to reduce fresh food waste at retailers approximately 89 million of tonnes of food is wasted every year in the eu along the whole food supply chain the reasons for food waste by retailers include inappropriate quality control overstocking and inaccurate forecasting this study shows that food wasted by retailers can be reduced by discounting old products or by applying a dynamically adjustable expiration date in other words dynamic shelf life dsl we developed a simulation based optimization model to optimize the replenishment and discounting policy of a retailer who sells meat products dsl outperforms a fixed shelf life fsl in terms of profit waste shortages and food safety furthermore replenishment quantities can be higher the benefits of dsl are greater when demand is low or when the shelf life of products is short discounting is a successful strategy to reduce food waste for both fsl and dsl dsl without discounting is more effective than fsl with discounting combining dsl and discounting allows for a further reduction of food waste

money and interest in a cash in advance economy the authors analyze an aggregative general equilibrium model in which the use of money is motivated by a cash in advance constraint applied to purchases of a subset of consumption goods the system is subject to both real and monetary shocks which are economy wide and observed by all they develop methods for verifying the existence of characterizing and explicitly calculating equilibria copyright 1987 by the econometric society

an optimal replenishment policy for non instantaneous deteriorating items with stock dependent demand and partial backlogging abstract in this study we consider a problem of determining the optimal replenishment policy for non instantaneous deteriorating items with stock dependent demand in the model shortages are allowed and the backlogging rate is variable and dependent on the waiting time for the next replenishment the necessary and sufficient conditions of the existence and uniqueness of the optimal solution are shown as the special cases the results for the models with instantaneous or non instantaneous deterioration rate and with or without shortages are derived further we analytically identify the best circumstance among these special cases based on the minimum total relevant cost per unit time sensitivity analysis of the optimal solution with respect to major parameters is carried out finally four numerical examples are presented to demonstrate the developed model and the solution procedure

joint pricing and replenishment policy for deteriorating inventory with declining market abstract this study deals with a deteriorating inventory model where demand decreases linearly with time and cost of items planning horizon is assumed to be finite the replenishment cycles are constant and shortages are partially back ordered the net profit maximizing ordering policy and price are determined for different degree of partial back ordering the reduction in revenue resulted from lost sale is expressed in the lost sale shortage penalty in the total cost formulation a solution method based on nonlinear programming code and the hessian matrix guarantees global optimality of the solution a numerical example is provided to illustrate the theory

the fed and interest rates a high frequency identification we measure monetary policy shocks as changes in the fed funds target rate that surprise bond markets in daily data these shock series avoid the omitted variable time varying parameter and orthogonalization problem of monthly vars and do not impose the expectations hypothesis we find surprisingly large and persistent responses of bond yields to these shocks 10 year rates rise as much as 8 10 of a percent to a one percent target shock the usual view that monetary policy only temporarily raises long term rates and influences inflation would lead one to predict a negative long rate response this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

the return of the liquidity effect a study of the short run relation between money growth and interest rates in this article i use band pass filters to investigate the short run relationship between money growth and interest rates i find a negative correlation between short run movements in money growth and interest rates which i interpret as evidence that the liquidity effect dominates the anticipated inflation effect

an optimal production inventory model for deteriorating items with multiple market demand the global markets of today offer more selling opportunities to the deteriorating items manufacturers but also pose new challenges in production and inventory planning from a production management standpoint opportunities to exploit the difference in the timing of the selling season between geographically dispersed markets for deteriorating items are important to improving a firm s profitability in this paper we examined the above issue with an insightful production inventory model of a deteriorating items manufacturer selling goods to multiple markets with different selling seasons we also provided a solution procedure to find the optimal replenishment schedule for raw materials and the optimal production plan for finished products a numerical example was then used to illustrate the model and the solution procedure finally sensitivity analysis of the optimal solution with respect to major parameters was carried out

planning for shortages net present value analysis for a deteriorating item with partial backlogging abstract this paper develops inventory models to help answer strategic questions concerning whether planning for shortages offers financial benefits a production inventory system producing a deteriorating product in batches at a finite production rate with partial backordering is considered customers pay a deposit when placing a backorder backordered items receive a discount on the sales price as lost sales may lead to customers not returning the demand rate may depend on the fraction of lost sales we develop a cash flow based profit maximising net present value npv model without the inventory cost parameters commonly used in this context unit holding cost unit backorder cost unit deterioration cost and unit lost sales cost the model finds the optimal inventory policy just like npv models that discount the traditional parameters but has the advantage of not needing to estimate the value of the traditional parameters it is shown that in models based on discounting the traditional parameters the parameters are not exogenously determinable but are non trivial functions of non financial endogenous system parameters such as the production rate annual demand rate and backorder rate extensive numerical experiments illustrate how cash flow npv models provide insights into the value of planning for shortages and strategic choices about the design of the production inventory system it also provides insight into the classical problem of how to interpret unit backorder cost and unit lost sales cost the study indicates that these insights cannot be reliably obtained from npv models based on discounting unit backorder costs and unit lost sales costs

effects of inflation and time value of money on an inventory model with linear time dependent demand rate and shortages abstract in the present paper an attempt has been made to investigate the effects of inflation and time value of money on an inventory model with linear time dependent demand rate shortages are allowed in this model the model developed in this article is a finite horizon t si policy inventory model to the best of the authors knowledge such type of inventory model has not been considered earlier a numerical example has also been given to illustrate the developed model

an epq model of ramp type demand with weibull deterioration under inflation and finite horizon in crisp and fuzzy environment abstract this paper deals with an economic production model for deteriorating items with ramp type demand rate a single item is produced and the finite rate of production is proportional to the demand rate the deterioration rate of the item is taken as two parameter weibull s distribution we also have considered the effect of inflation when there is no shortage in the stock and the model is under finite time horizon the inventory model is solved under crisp and fuzzy environment to evaluate the optimum solution of the model in different cases we illustrate the model with an example by taking various number of replenishment we present sensitivity analysis to illustrate the example under crisp and fuzziness thus the objective of the paper is to find the optimal solution of production time so as to minimize the present value of total cost of the whole replenishment cycle and to check which environment crisp or fuzzy is desirable

the federal reserve s operating procedure nonborrowed reserves borrowed reserves and the liquidity effect abstract recently a number of researchers christiano and eichenbaum 1992 christiano et al 1996a b 1997 evans and marshall 1998 strongin 1995 pagan and robertson 1995 brunner 1994 claim to have found evidence of a statistically significant liquidity effect in a recursive structural var using nonborrowed reserves nbr it is claimed that innovations to nbr reflect the exogenous policy actions of the fed this paper argues that the opposite is true specifically i show that the fed has an incentive to offset bank initiated discount window borrowing when it implements the federal open market committee s policy directive and that it has done so since the late 1950s this practice has created a negative contemporaneous covariance between nbr and the funds rate that has been incorrectly attributed to the liquidity effect by showing that these models capture the endogenous response of the fed to bank borrowing on nbr rather than the effect of exogenous policy actions on the funds rate this paper also resolves the puzzle of the vanishing liquidity effect noted by pagan and robertson 1995 and christiano 1995

bond yields and the federal reserve bond yields respond to policy decisions by the federal reserve and vice versa to learn about these responses i model a high frequency policy rule based on yield curve information and an arbitrage free bond market in continuous time the fed s target is a pure jump process jump intensities depend on the state of the economy and the meeting calendar of the federal open market committee the model has closed form solutions for yields as functions of a few state variables introducing monetary policy helps to match the whole yield curve because the target is an observable state variable that pins down its short end and introduces important seasonalities around fomc meetings the volatility of yields is snake shaped which the model explains with policy inertia the policy rule crucially depends on the two year yield and describes fed policy better than taylor rules

a comprehensive extension of optimal ordering policy for stock dependent demand under progressive payment scheme in a recent paper soni and shah 2008 presented an inventory model with a stock dependent demand under progressive payment scheme assuming zero ending inventory and adopting a cost minimization objective however with a stock dependent demand a non zero ending stock may increase profits resulting from the increased demand this work is motivated by soni and shah s 2008 paper extending their model to allow for 1 a non zero ending inventory 2 a profit maximization objective 3 a limited inventory capacity and 4 deteriorating items with a constant deterioration rate for the resulted model sufficient conditions for the existence and uniqueness of the optimal solution are provided finally several economic interpretations of the theoretical results are also given

effects of inflation and the time value of money on order quantity and allowable shortage abstract this paper investigates the effects of inflation and time value of money on the optimal ordering quantities and the maximum allowable shortage in a finite replenishment inventory system the present value of total cost incurred in this inventory system is developed first then an optimal order quantity and maximum allowable shortage are obtained by using a search procedure the effect of inflation and time value of money was investigated under given sets of values of inflation and discount rates this study shows that the optimal order quantity and maximum allowable shortage vary with the change in difference between inflation and time discount computational results indicate that this effect on the system becomes more significant with the increase of the difference between inflation rate and time discount rate

systematic risk over various frequency bands an empirical analysis of returns on size ranked portfolios abstract this paper finds negative risk premia for market betas obtained from some of the high frequency components of portfolio returns and value weighted market returns the size effect is likely to be more pronounced for the high frequency components

interest rates and exchange rates under money supply targets the swiss evidence abstract short term effects of monetary policy on interest rates and exchange rates are evaluated with monthly and daily data for switzerland from 1974 to 1991 during this period the swiss national bank generally pursued a policy of targeting the money supply some evidence in favor of liquidity effects on interest rates is found the influence of changes in monetary aggregates is however not very strong both in terms of magnitude and explanatory power and depends on the time period investigated exchange rates do not react systematically to monetary policy actions

a survey of deterministic models for the eoq and epq with partial backordering models for the basic deterministic eoq or epq problem with partial backordering or backlogging make all the assumptions of the classic eoq or epq model with full backordering except that only a fraction of the demand during the stockout period is backordered in this survey we review deterministic models that have been developed over the past 40 years that address the basic models and extensions that add other considerations such as pricing perishable or deteriorating inventory time varying or stock dependent demand quantity discounts or multiple warehouses

optimal pricing and lot sizing under conditions of perishability and partial backordering we formulate a generalized model of dynamic pricing and lot sizing by a reseller who sells a perishable good we assume that when it is economic to backlog demand the reseller can plan for periods of shortage during which demand can be partially backordered when the good is highly perishable the reseller may need to backlog demand in order to market the good at a reasonable price we present a simple solution procedure for solving the optimization problem the procedure entails solving first a single nonlinear equation and then if required two nonlinear equations

the effects of money growth on inflation and interest rates across spectral frequency bands band spectral regression techniques are used to identify the frequency bands that are most important in the relationships between money growth and inflation and between money growth and the nominal interest rate the results show that cycles in the growth rate of m1 from one to two years long produce higher frequency cycles in inflation and two distinct sets of higher frequency cycles in changes in the nominal interest rate the results support models where predictable changes in money growth produce liquidity and anticipated inflation effects on nominal interest rates copyright 1994 by ohio state university press

on a finite horizon production lot size inventory model for deteriorating items an optimal solution abstract a generalized production lot size inventory model for deteriorating items over a finite planning horizon is considered the demand production and deteriorating rates are assumed to be known and continuous functions of time shortages are allowed and completely backlogged the conditions under which the system total cost attains its unique global minimum are derived an example which illustrate the applicability of theoretical results is also introduced

long and short term interest rates in a risky world abstract the paper develops and tests a general equilibrium model in which variability or risk affects the choice of portfolios our measures of variability include only the variability of unanticipated growth in monetary and non monetary aggregates and our tests use data ending with the change in federal reserve procedures in october 1979 we find that increased variability of unanticipated money growth raises demands for debt and money and reduces the demand for real capital interest rates on both short and long term debt rise by a risk premium we estimate the size of the risk premium before and after the october 1979 change and we show that the change in federal reserve procedures moved the economy to a less efficient point

two illustrations of the quantity theory of money of two central implications of the quantity theory of money that a given change in the rate of change in the quantity of money induces i an equal change in the rate of price inflation and ii an equal change in nominal rates of interest the illustrations were obtained by comparing moving averages of the three variables in question using quarterly u s time series for the period 1953 77 readers may find the results of interest as additional confirmation of the quantity theory as an example of one way in which the quantity theoretic relationships can be uncovered via atheoretical methods from time series which are subject to a variety of other forces or as a measure of the extent to which the inflation and interest rate experience of the postwar period can be understood in terms of purely classical monetary forces the theoretical background of the study is reviewed very briefly as it is familiar material in the next section the data processing methods are described and rationalized in section ii the illustrations

supply chain coordination contracts with inventory level and retail price dependent demand abstract in this paper three unlike coordinating contracts namely i joint rebate contract ii wholesale price discount contract and iii cost sharing contract are proposed for two echelon supply chain coordination perspective under stock and price induced demand it is found analytically that the manufacturer s and the retailer s preferences among three contractual forms are not always aligned by applying bargaining theory it is established that stock elasticity plays an important role to select coordination contract and a threshold value stock elasticity is also determined below which cost sharing contract is not feasible it is also found that the retailer with higher bargaining power always prefers wholesale price discount contract among considered three contracts results are illustrated analytically as well as numerically