the evolving landscape of banking the structure of the financial services industry is in flux liberalization deregulation and advances in information technology have changed the financial landscape dramatically interbank competition has heated up and banks face increasing competition from nonbanking financial institutions and the financial markets the predictability of the industry with low levels of financial innovation little innovation in distribution channels and well defined and rigid institutional structures is gone product innovations new distribution channels and emerging new competitors are in abundance moreover the subprime crisis that has hit the financial sector in 2007 2008 appears to have a major impact on the structure of the industry this article emphasizes the importance of understanding the economics of banking for assessing the changes in the industry in particular we point at relationship banking as a prime source of the banks comparative advantage the proliferation of transaction oriented banking trading and financial market activities does however seriously challenge relationship banking in order to focus on these issues in a rigorous way we will evaluate the key insights from the relationship banking literature including the potential complementarities and conflicts of interest between intermediated relationship banking activities and financial market underwriting securitization etc activities we also address the issue of the optimal conglomeration of bank activities including the empirical evidence on scope and scale economies we analyze the strategic positioning of banks in the currently highly uncertain competitive arena and link this to the theory of the firm and particularly firm boundaries and learning

the greenhouse effect damages costs and abatement the buildup of so called greenhouse gases in the atmosphere co2 in particular appears to be having an adverse impact on the global climate this paper briefly reviews current expectations with regard to physical and biological effects their potential costs to society and likely costs of abatement for a worst case scenario it is impossible to assess in economic terms the full range of possible non linear synergistic effects in the most favorable although not necessarily likely case of slow paced climate change however it seems likely that the impacts are within the affordable range at least in the industrialized countries of the world in the third world the notion of affordability is of doubtful relevance making the problem of quantitative evaluation almost impossible we tentatively assess the lower limit of quantifiable climate induced damages at 30 to 35 per ton of co2 equivalent worldwide with the major damages being concentrated in regions most adversely affected by sea level rise the non quantifiable environmental damages are also significant and should by no means be disregarded the costs and benefits of 1 reducing cfc use and 2 reducing fossil fuel consumption as a means of abatement are considered in some detail this strategy has remarkably high indirect benefits in terms of reduced air pollution damage and even direct cost savings to consumers the indirect benefits of reduced air pollution and its associated health and environmental effects from fossil fuel combustion in the industrialized countries range from 20 to 60 per ton of co2 eliminated in addition there is good evidence that modest e g 25 reductions in co2 emissions may be achievable by the u s and by implication for other countries by a combination of increased energy efficiency and restructuring that would permit simultaneous direct economic benefits savings to energy consumers of the order of 50 per ton of co2 saved a higher level of overall emissions reduction possibly approaching 50 could probably be achieved at little or not net cost by taking advantage of these savings we suggest the use of taxes on fossil fuel extraction or a carbon tax as a reasonable way of inducing the structural changes that would be required to achieve significant reduction in energy use and co2 emissions to minimize the economic burden and create a political constituency in support of the approach we suggest the substitution of resource based taxes in general for other types of taxes on labor income real estate or trade that are now the main sources of government revenue while it is conceded that it would be difficult to calculate the optimal tax on extractive resources we do not think this is a necessary prerequisite to policy making in fact we note that the existing tax system has never been optimized according to theoretical principles and is far from optimal by any reasonable criteria

discount rates equity weights and the social cost of carbon abstract equity weighting has been proposed as a way of allowing welfare equivalents to be included in the social cost of carbon since a dollar to a poor person is worth more than a dollar to a rich one here we use the page2002 integrated assessment model to show that the social cost of carbon is higher without equity weights an elasticity of marginal utility with respect to income of 0 than with them this might seem counter intuitive but it comes about because of the logical link between equity weights and discount rates as the elasticity goes from 0 to 0 5 to 1 0 the social rate of time preference rises and the drop in present values that results far outweighs the small increase in impacts that equity weights bring

fat tails exponents extreme uncertainty simulating catastrophe in dice abstract the problem of low probability catastrophic risk is increasingly central to discussion of climate science and policy but the integrated assessment models iams of climate economics rarely incorporate this possibility what modifications are needed to analyze catastrophic economic risks in an iam we explore this question using dice a well known iam we examine the implications of a fat tailed probability distribution for the climate sensitivity parameter a focus of recent work by martin weitzman and the shape of the damage function one of the issues raised by the stern review forecasts of disastrous economic outcomes in dice can result from the interaction of these two innovations but not from either one alone

a review of wta wtp studies abstract willingness to accept wta is usually substantially higher than willingness to pay wtp these constructs have been studied for roughly 30 years and with a wide variety of goods this paper reviews those studies we find that the less the good is like an ordinary market good the higher is the ratio the ratio is highest for non market goods next highest for ordinary private goods and lowest for experiments involving forms of money a generalization of this pattern holds even when we account for differences in survey design ordinary goods have lower ratios than non ordinary ones we also find that ratios in real experiments are not significantly different from hypothetical experiments and that incentive compatible elicitation yields higher ratios

frontiers of climate change economics the economics of climate change is an active field of research the contributions to a special issue are put in context of the literature and it is suggested that second best issues such as carbon leakage and the green paradox need to be complemented with a political economy analysis of why certain instruments are politically infeasible and with intra and intergenerational analyses of the impact of climate policy a case is also made for more empirical work on the gradual and catastrophic damages of global warming

are optimal emissions really optimal four critical issues for economists in the greenhouse although the greenhouse effect is by many considered as one of the most serious environmental problems several economic studies of the greenhouse effect most notably nordhaus s dice model suggest that it is optimal to allow the emissions of greenhouse gases ghg to increase by a factor of three over the next century other studies have found that substantial reductions can be justified on economic grounds this paper explores into the reasons for these differences and identifies four partly overlapping crucial issues that have to be dealt with when analysing the economics of the greenhouse effect low probability but catastrophic events cost evaluation methods the choice of discount rate the choice of decision criterion the paper shows that i these aspects are crucial for the policy conclusions drawn from models of the economics of climate change and that ii ethical choices have to be made for each of these issues this fact needs wider recognition since economics is very often perceived as a value neutral tool that can be used to provide policy makers with optimal policies

bounded rationality climate risks and insurance is there a market for natural disasters this paper examines the role of insurances to reduce uncertainty associated with climate change losses for individuals of special interest is the value individuals place on the reduction of increased flood risks by insurance coverage using rank dependent utility and prospect theories risk premiums are estimated under different climate change scenarios for the netherlands the study delivers two main insights first estimation results suggest that a profitable flood insurance market could be feasible second climate change has the potential to increase the profitability of offering flood insurance 2009 by the board of regents of the university of wisconsin system

long range dependence in spanish political opinion poll series this paper investigates the time series properties of partisanship for five political parties in spain it is found that pure fractional processes with a degree of integration d between 0 6 and 0 8 fit the time series behaviour of aggregate opinion polls for mainstream parties quite well whereas values of d in the range of 0 3 to 0 6 are obtained for opinion polls related to smaller regional parties those results are in agreement with theories of political allegiance based on aggregation of heterogeneous voters with different degrees of commitment and pragmatism further those models are found to be useful in forecasting the results of the last general elections in spain as a further contribution new econometric techniques for estimation and testing of arfima model are used to provide the previous evidence copyright 2003 john wiley sons ltd

further empirical evidence on popularity and electoral cycle effects this paper empirically examines the hypothesis that popularity is typified by electoral cycle effects we suggest that if the data is filtered on the basis of a model assuming informed voters there is no evidence for the electoral cycle hypothesis

one market one number a composite indicator assessment of eu internal market dynamics we consider the lack of consensus about an appropriate theoretical framework linking sub indicators as a defining characteristic of composite indicators this intrinsic feature implies uncertainties about the appropriate normalization and aggregation of the raw data the two are related index theory offers some valuable guidelines about their connection yet these do not fully solve the basic problem of expert disagreement we embed such residual disagreement in the aggregation method itself specifically we apply an impartial benefit of the doubt weighting procedure where weight restrictions incorporate the available information on experts opinions we apply this procedure to the dynamic performance assessment of eu internal market effects thereby highlighting its capacity to disaggregate member states observed performance shifts into changes relative to benchmarks and performance changes of the benchmarks i e catching up versus genuine progress our results indicate that the latter factor is more important in explaining the observed progress

welfare specifications and optimal control of climate change an application of fund the sensitivity of the optimal control of carbon dioxide emissions to the specification of the social welfare function is systematically explored using the fund model increasing risk aversion emphasises climate change damages relative to emission reduction costs but at the same time increases the discount rate of consumption without international co operation the discount rate effect dominates so that optimal control decreases with increasing risk aversion with international co operation optimal control first increases then decreases with increasing risk aversion since climate change falls heaviest on the poor optimal control increases with increasing inequity aversion full fledged intergenerational welfare functions on the one hand emphasise climate change damages but on the other hand place more weight on current poorer generations in fund the two tendencies almost cancel

climate damages in the fund model a disaggregated analysis abstract we examine the treatment of climate damages in the fund model by inserting software switches to turn individual features on and off we obtain fund s estimates for 15 categories of damages and for components of the agricultural category fund as used by the u s government to estimate the social cost of carbon projects a net benefit of climate change in agriculture offset by a slightly larger estimate of all other damages within agriculture there is a large benefit from co 2 fertilization a moderate cost from the effect of temperature on yields and a much smaller impact of the rate of change in fund s agricultural modeling the temperature yield equation comes close to dividing by zero for high probability values of a monte carlo parameter the range of variation of the optimal temperature exceeds physically plausible limits with 95 confidence intervals extending to 17 c above and below current temperatures moreover fund s agricultural estimates are calibrated to research published in 1996 or earlier use of estimates from such models is arguably inappropriate for setting public policy but as long as such models are being used in the policymaking process an update to reflect newer research and correct modeling errors is needed before fund s damage estimates can be relied on

climate change policy what do the models tell us very little a plethora of integrated assessment models iams have been constructed and used to estimate the social cost of carbon scc and evaluate alternative abatement policies these models have crucial flaws that make them close to useless as tools for policy analysis certain inputs e g the discount rate are arbitrary but have huge effects on the scc estimates the models produce the models descriptions of the impact of climate change are completely ad hoc with no theoretical or empirical foundation and the models can tell us nothing about the most important driver of the scc the possibility of a catastrophic climate outcome iam based analyses of climate policy create a perception of knowledge and precision but that perception is illusory and misleading jel c51 q54 q58

climate damages in the fund model a comment in a recent paper published in this journal ackerman and munitz 2012 ackerman and munitz am present a sectoral decomposition of the impacts of climate change as represented in fund an integrated assessmentmodel and contrast the resultswith andwithout uncertainty we welcome outside scrutiny of our work even if in this case it adds little to what we knew already anthoff and tol 2011 anthoff et al 2011 am also take issue with the range of uncertainty about the impacts of climate change reported in the peer reviewed literature an issue that is outside our control am further claim that the equation describing the impacts of climate change on agriculture comes dangerously close to dividing by zero and that the fund estimate of the social cost of carbon is significantly affected by these runs this claim is incorrect based on inconclusive diagnostic tests used by am am report two tests for dividing by zero in both tests am change the statistical properties of the monte carlo analysis and compare the expectation of the social cost of carbon from their modified version of fund with estimates from the original model in the original model there are 16 composite distributions that are normal normal normal and 16 that are normal normal in one test am replace these probability density functions with normal distributions in the other test they replace 16 probability density functions with normal distributions and 16 others with normal normal distributions although they preserve the modes of the distributions at least in the first test am change the means all higher moments and all cross moments

is the glass steagall act justified a study of the u s experience with universal banking before the glass steagall act of 1933 removed commercial banks from the securities underwriting business we evaluate the argument for the separation of commercial and investment banking that conflicts of interest induce commercial banks to fool the public into investing in securities which turn out to be of low quality a comparison of the performance of securities underwritten by commercial and investment banks prior to the act shows no evidence of this instead the public appears to have rationally accounted for the possibility of conflicts of interest and this appears to have constrained the banks to underwrite high quality securities jel g21 g24 n22

returns to rural electrification evidence from bhutan abstract rural electrification re is a core component of the sustainable development goals and a major focal point of the global development community despite this focus more than one billion people worldwide lack access to electricity and electrification rates need to more than quadruple to meet international goals we believe that lack of progress is partly driven by a know do gap a misalignment between academic research and the information needs of policy makers most studies measuring the impacts of electrification focus on precise estimation of a few outcomes specifically health education and productivity impacts other important impacts e g environmental have remained largely unstudied as a consequence quantifying the full set of costs and benefits of expanding electricity access is difficult and rarely done when cost benefit analyses are done they are often incomplete and conclusions are highly susceptible to unavailable or uncertain parameters we illustrate these arguments in the case of bhutan where re rates have expanded rapidly in the past few decades we show that re via grid extension had positive impacts related to fuelwood consumption education and employment but we do not find an effect on health we then use these impact estimates to conduct cost benefit analyses for the cost benefit parameters not available from our impact evaluation we transfer reasonable estimates from related contexts to acknowledge the uncertainty induced by this process we conduct monte carlo analyses and confirm that while the private npv calculations are robust to alternative parameter values the social returns are sensitive to estimates of the social cost of carbon and costs of grid operation and maintenance based on this exercise we highlight research gaps that persist and that preclude 1 careful cost benefit analysis of re more generally and 2 financial investment in the sector

some economics of global warming the greenhouse effect itself is simple enough to understand and is not in any real dispute what is in dispute is its magnitude over the coming century its translation into changes in climates around the globe and the impacts of those climate changes on human welfare and the natural environment these are beyond the professional understanding of any single person the sciences involved are too numerous and diverse demography economics biology and the technology sciences are needed to project emissions atmospheric chemistry oceanography biology and meteorology are needed to translate emissions into climates biology agronomy health sciences economics sociology and glaciology are needed to identify and assess impacts on human societies and natural ecosystems and those are not all there are expert judgments on large pieces of the subject but no single person clothed in this panoply of disciplines has shown up or is likely to this article makes an attempt to forecast the economic and social consequences of global warming due to anthropogenic greenhouse gases and attempting to prevent it

exploring futures for amazonia s sierra del divisor an environmental valuation triadics approach to analyzing ecological economic decision choices in the context of major shifts in boundary conditions abstract this text presents a new methodological approach to ecological economic analysis employing georgescu roegen s flow fund theory of economic process it offers an alternative to monetary valuation based analyses and aims to contribute toward advancing work concerned with addressing complex ecological economic questions as complete wholes the methodology is demonstrated through reference to the empirical case of a proposed rail link between peru and brazil which would cut across the sierra del divisor of western amazonia connecting the pacific and atlantic coasts and further opening up the amazon commodity frontier in order to analyze the potential impacts of the rail link four flow fund representations of economic process two at the regional and two at the local level are developed in order to juxtapose two alternative political economy contexts that might govern the rail link s impacts in the region one where conservation is prioritized over cash income and one where it is not our results suggest that completion of the rail link under the current political economy context which prioritizes cash income over conservation is likely to have substantial negative consequences for forest conservation in both peru and brazil and for local livelihoods throughout the region

risk adjusted gamma discounting abstract it is widely recognized that the economics of distant future events like climate change is critically dependent upon the choice of a discount rate unfortunately it is unclear how to discount distant future events when the future discount rate itself is unknown in previous work an analytically tractable approach called gamma discounting was proposed which gave a declining discount rate schedule as a simple closed form function of time this paper extends the previous gamma approach by using a ramsey optimal growth model combined with uncertainty about future productivity in order to risk adjust all probabilities by marginal utility weights some basic numerical examples are given which suggest that the overall effect of risk adjusted gamma discounting on lowering distant future discount rates may be significant the driving force is a fear factor from risk aversion to permanent productivity shocks representing catastrophic future states of the world

climatic cost benefit analysis under uncertainty and learning on climate sensitivity and damages abstract cost benefit analyses on climate change have drawn considerable critique primarily due to contestable choices of discounting and high uncertainties in climate sensitivity and climatic damages consequentially it is argued that cost benefit analysis can suggest mitigation rates that are nearly arbitrary this article investigates how firm conclusions can be made from cost benefit analysis if the main uncertainties are considered endogenously in the analysis and an extensive sensitivity analysis is carried out regarding the contestable assumptions the score model is used to calculate optimal emission pathways and carbon prices that hedge against climate sensitivity and damage risks using a wide range of plausible parametrizations in a vast majority of cases the near term emissions fall between 1 5 c and 2 c emission pathways giving thus support for the paris agreement targets sequential decision making allows hedging against uncertainties and readjusting mitigation efforts over time to reflect new information leading to diverse stabilization temperatures in the long term assumptions on mitigation costs climate sensitivity and damages affect optimal near term mitigation and long term stabilization temperature more strongly than the discount rate choice the consideration of parametric uncertainty on climate sensitivity and damages adds a substantial risk component to carbon pricing while learning can induce significant price volatility in a decadal timescale

how to decide when experts disagree uncertainty based choice rules in environmental policy environmental economists have traditionally addressed the issue of choice under uncertainty by applying the expected utility hypothesis when policymakers face a panel of experts with widely divergent beliefs the problem may more accurately be described as a case of choice under pure uncertainty arrow and hurwicz 1972 demonstrate that rational choice criteria under pure uncertainty will focus on the extremes of the state space not the midpoint as is typically assumed using nordhaus s dice model uncertainty based choices about global warming policies are evaluated linkages to the safe minimum standard and the precautionary principle are also discussed

tail hedge discounting and the social cost of carbon the choice of an overall discount rate for climate change investments depends critically on how different components of investment payoffs are discounted at differing rates reflecting their underlying risk characteristics such underlying rates can vary enormously from 1 percent for idiosyncratic diversifiable risk to 7 percent for systematic nondiversifiable risk which risk adjusted rate is chosen can have a huge impact on cost benefit analysis in this expository paper i attempt to set forth in accessible language with a simple linear model what i think are some of the basic issues involved in discounting climate risks the paper introduces a new concept that may be relevant for climate change discounting the degree to which an investment hedges against the bad tail of catastrophic damages by insuring positive expected payoffs even under the worst circumstances the prototype application is calculating the social cost of carbon jel c51 q54 q58

expectations and preferences in british general elections t a te address two questions how do people form their expectations about the likely winner of the next general election and what are the links between expectations and votes using v v data collected by the gallup organization in great britain we find that the expectations formation process 1 has a significant inertia component but also a rapid adjustment to current information 2 reflects voters ability to translate economic expectations into political forecasts and 3 is time bounded possessing special characteristics immediately before and after a general election the analysis also confirms the existence of a small bandwagon effect whereby expectations that one party will win inflate that party s vote the ability of voters to make reasonable forecasts without being unduly influenced by their own preferences suggests that under normal circumstances voters are expressing real preferences and not simply following the crowd

modeling government popularity in postwar britain a methodological example economic theory suggests that government popularity may be related to the rate of change of nonstationary economic quantities and the level of stationary financial variables like inflation or interest rates political theory suggests that this relationship may not be stable over time we find that there is a well defined relationship between u k government popularity in the postwar period and a small set of economic variables i e unemployment inflation and real interest rates unusual political events are also important voters appear to discount history at a high rate remarkably the estimated equation is very stable and passes a battery of stability tests including postsample parameter stability tests furthermore estimation using the kalman filter shows no tendency for the parameters to vary systematically over time implying that voter preferences have remained broadly constant throughout the postwar years

is political popularity a random walk this paper tets for nonstationarity in the political popularity of uk parties and governments within the context of an economic model which predicts that party support is an arima 0 1 1 process the hypothesis is rejected for the government s popularity but the results for individual party support are less clear out

global warming discounting is not the issue but substitutability is the cost benefit study of nordhaus 1994 is representative for the neoclassical approach towards global warming nordhaus found that no substantial emission cuts are warranted most of his critics have concentrated on the issue of discounting and demanded that a lower discount rate should be applied these criticisms first miss the point and second lead to ethically dubious inconsistent conclusions and inefficient policy choices they miss the point because the real problem of nordhaus s methodology is his implicit underlying assumption of perfect substitutability between natural and other forms of capital given the validity of this assumption lowering the rate of discount is inconsistent with current savings behaviour is ethically dubious because future generations will be much richer than the current one anyway and is inefficient because scarce financial resources are channelled into emissions abatement that exhibits rates of return far inferior to alternative public investments any call for aggressive emission abatement must therefore directly attack the perfect substitutability assumption of neoclassical economics the real disagreement is about whether consumption growth can compensate for environmental degradation caused by global warming discounting is not the issue but substitutability is

rethinking the costs related to global warming a survey of the issues one approach to the economic analysis of global warming seeks to balance the costs of damage from or adaptation to it with the costs of mitigating it the costs of adaptation and damage have been estimated using techniques of environmental evaluation but are subject to a wide margin of uncertainty the costs of mitigation principally by reducing the emissions of co2 have been estimated using different kinds of economic models some of the results of which have suggested that very little abatement of carbon emissions is justified before the costs of abatement exceed the benefits of it in terms of foregone damage and adaptation costs the paper analyses the extent to which this conclusion is a function of the modelling assumptions and techniques used rather than likely practical outcomes with regard to the models treatment of unemployed resources revenue recycling prior distortions in the economy due to the tax system and possible dynamic effects from the introduction of a carbon energy tax it concludes that with different and arguably more appropriate treatment of the above issues especially when the secondary benefits of reducing co2 emissions are also taken into account it is not clear that even substantial reductions in the use of fossil fuels will incur net costs especially if there is the prospect of even moderate costs from global warming

political business cycles and macroeconomic credibility a survey there is clear evidence that government popularity and election performance is affected in part by economic performance suggesting that governments may manipulate the economy to political advantage simple models incorporating adaptive expectations which allowed the government to exploit this relationship were developed in the 1970s but fell out of fashion with the advent of new classical economics however modern theories of the political business cycle which are closely related to the macroeconomic policy game literature assume rational expectations and lead to forms of political business cycle driven by the existence of uncertainty of one type or another the international evidence suggests that some aspects of the theories apply although definitive conclusions are as we might expect hard to come by

optimal climate policy is a utopia from quantitative to qualitative cost benefit analysis abstract the dominance of quantitative cost benefit analysis cba and optimality concepts in the economic analysis of climate policy is criticised among others it is argued to be based in a misplaced interpretation of policy for a complex climate economy system as being analogous to individual inter temporal welfare optimisation the transfer of quantitative cba and optimality concepts reflects an overly ambitious approach that does more harm than good an alternative approach is to focus the attention on extreme events structural change and complexity it is argued that a qualitative rather than a quantitative cba that takes account of these aspects can support the adoption of a minimax regret approach or precautionary principle in climate policy this means implement stringent ghg reduction policies as soon as possible

theories of choice under ignorance and uncertainty abstract in this paper knight s distinction between risk and uncertainty and its significance for economic analysis are examined the paper consists of a survey of some recent developments on the theory of choice under uncertainty and some applications of these theories to problems for which bayesian decision theory has not proved entirely satisfactory two problems are examined in detail the first is that of finance and insurance and the second is that of risktaking behaviour with special emphasis on lotteries

how sensitive is nordhaus to weitzman climate policy in dice with an alternative damage function abstract the damage function in the famous climate economy model dice has received much criticism weitzman 2010 has proposed an alternative approach that gives more serious attention to climate change impacts for larger temperature increases we calculate optimal climate policy with dice using this approach optimal emission abatement trajectories turn out to be very sensitive to the damage specification we summarise the difference between the associated optimal abatement costs in npv terms

monetary valuation of the social cost of co2 emissions a critical survey an expanding branch of research has estimated the potential costs of climate change which are often expressed as the social cost of carbon scc or the costs of an additional ton of co2 emissions estimates of the scc can be used by policy makers to evaluate climate change policies and greenhouse gas emission reduction projects by means of cost benefit analyses cbas such analyses are complicated by the wide range of scc values that have been reported in the literature and the large uncertainties involved in estimating the potential economic impacts and related costs of climate change this study presents a critical review of the reported scc estimates by examining some neglected consequences of climate change uncertain and extreme scenarios of climate change the discounting of future climate change effects the treatment of individual risk aversion and assumptions about social welfare in view of the many uncertainties and omissions in conventional cost benefit analyses of climate impacts and the scc alternative approaches to decision making should be considered for climate policy

the social cost of carbon and its policy implications the shadow price or social cost of carbon is an important indicator of the global incremental damage done by emitting greenhouse gases today cost benefit analysis would set the optimal amount of greenhouse gas emission reduction at the point where this social cost just equals the incremental cost of controlling emissions the higher the value for the social cost of carbon the more control is warranted this comparison assumes that cost benefit analysis is the correct way of determining climate change policy and many believe this is not the case because of the very long term irreversible and potentially catastrophic nature of global warming but in the short run at least a comparison of cost and benefits is required and in any event all decisions imply costs and benefits but what is the right figure for the social cost of carbon this paper reviews the uk government s assessment of the cost and concludes that it has been set far too high because of a misreading of the integrated assessment models used to balance costs and benefits moreover adoption of the uk government s shadow price would have formidable implications for energy policy in the uk and for policies on afforestation copyright 2003 oxford university press

incorporating distributional considerations in the safe minimum standard approach endangered species and local impacts abstract explicitly incorporating current distributional concerns into the safe minimum standard sms approach is the objective of this study the sms approach is a collective choice process that prescribes protecting a minimum level of a renewable natural resource unless the social costs of doing so are somehow excessive or intolerably high more complete implementation of an sms approach if it is to be a pragmatic policy tool requires that distributional considerations be included in determining whether the economic consequences of preservation actions are intolerable two case studies involving the us endangered species act are used to illustrate how distributional concerns might be incorporated into the sms approach

firm heterogeneity internal finance and credit rationing this paper assesses the role of internal net worth holding constant investment opportunities in the allocation of credit in the presence of asymmetric information in the capital market the authors consider an economy in which both symmetric information and information intensive entrepreneurs seek funds from the capital market and they develop a simple general equilibrium model of credit allocation their emphasis is on shocks to borrower net worth depending on levels of net worth the symmetric information allocation a credit collapse or intermediate allocations are possible the model yields predictions corresponding to accelerator effects on investment and output as well as real effects of collateral redistributions copyright 1990 by royal economic society

the structure of economic modeling of the potential impacts of climate change grafting gross underestimation of risk onto already narrow science models scientists describe the scale of the risks from unmanaged climate change as potentially immense however the scientific models because they omit key factors that are hard to capture precisely appear to substantially underestimate these risks many economic models add further gross underassessment of risk because the assumptions built into the economic modeling on growth damages and risks come close to assuming directly that the impacts and costs will be modest and close to excluding the possibility of catastrophic outcomes a new generation of models is needed in all three of climate science impact and economics with a still stronger focus on lives and livelihoods including the risks of large scale migration and conflicts

is the political business cycle really dead a decade ago in this journal mccallum 26 proclaimed the theory of the political business cycle 30 25 17 to be dominated by the emergence of the rational expectations literature 23 24 34 clearly the two theories are inconsistent when a strong view of rational expectations sees governments unable to manipulate real variables to create booms in election years since then new developments in macroeconomics have occasioned serious doubts as to whether the strong version of rational expectations is supported by the data 28 2 1 31 12 furthermore new advances in the political business cycle literature 36 4 have attempted to reconciliate the two theories by emphasizing that expectation errors may result from the presence of party dependent policy reaction functions and uncertainty about election outcomes the purpose of this paper is to step back and reconsider whether or not the empirical evidence presented by mccallum favoring rational expectations for the u s was really that strong and could be generalized to other countries here the u k given that the rational expectations hypothesis has been rejected at least in the strong mccallum and sargent version 26 34 it

evolutionary voter sophistication and political business cycles the concept of the sophisticated electorate is central to many contemporary political economic models however no existing studies have yet clarified how voters could develop a sophisticated way of evaluating economic performance this study suggests a transitional hypothesis that removes the constraint that voters have prior knowledge about the macroeconomic environment and the true economic intent of the incumbent government the hypothesis permits behavioral innovation from learning and predicts that the evolutionary process toward sophistication may be triggered by socially suboptimal political business cycles that reveal the self serving characteristic of the government the empirical analyses using recent japanese experiences show that japanese political support behavior shifted from naivete to sophistication in the early 1970s after political manipulation occurred in the 1969 and 1972 parliamentary elections

change and stability in superpower rivalry we investigate the dynamics of superpower rivalry participants in policy debates within each state use information about expected future threats and economic costs to influence other policy actors and this process of sophisticated reaction links the security policies of these two states into a single rivalry system analysis of vector autoregression models of u s and soviet military expenditures and diplomatic hostility and u s gross national product supports the hypothesis that these policies approximate the behavior of unitary rational states capable of forming rational expectations of each other s future behavior the dynamic response of this system to a wide range of exogenous shocks or innovations reveals the underlying stability of this rivalry system the military expenditures of both states exhibit a cyclical response to innovations with a shorter u s cycle this lack of synchronization creates several problems for analysis and for policy change

peasants or bankers the american electorate and the u s economy t he usual model of electoral reaction to economic conditions assumes the retrospective economic voter who bases expectations solely on recent economic performance or personal economic experience voter as peasant a second model assumes a sophisticated economic voter who incorporates new information about the future into personal economic expectations voter as banker using the components both retrospective and prospective of the index of consumer sentiment ics as intervening variables between economic conditions and approval we find that the prospective component fully accounts for the presidential approval time series with aggregate consumer expectations about long term business conditions in the approval equation neither the usual economic indicators not the other ics components matter moreover short term changes in consumer expectations respond more to current forecasts than to the current economy the qualitative result is a rational expectations outcome the electorate anticipates the economic future and rewards or punishes the president for economic events before they happen economics moves political behavior with hard times administrations lose support with good times they gain it we know this to be true but when we ask how by what processes the political translation of economic experience occurs the an

a review of the stern review on the economics of climate change the stern review calls for immediate decisive action to stabilize greenhouse gases because the benefits of strong early action on climate change outweighs the costs the economic analysis supporting this conclusion consists mostly of two basic strands the first strand is a formal aggregative model that relies for its conclusions primari ly upon imposing a very low discount rate concerning this discount rate aspect i am skeptical of the review s formal analysis but this essay points out that we are actual ly a lot less sure about what interest rate should be used for discounting climate change than is commonly acknowledged the review s second basic strand is a more intuitive argument that it might be very important to avoid possibly large uncertain ties that are difficult to quantify concerning this uncertainty aspect i argue that it might be recast into sound analytical reasoning that might justify some of the review s conclusions the basic issue here is that spending money to slow global warming should perhaps not be conceptualized primarily as being about consump tion smoothing as much as being about how much insurance to buy to offset the small change of a ruinous catastrophe that is difficult to compensate by ordinary savings

a quarterly model of unanticipated monetary growth output and the price level in the u k 1963 1978 abstract this paper develops and estimates using quarterly data from 1963 to 1978 a three equation model of the u k economy in which output is affected only by unanticipated monetary growth whereas the price level is influenced by both anticipated and unanticipated changes in the money supply expectations of monetary growth are assumed to be muth rational the model was estimated using efficient procedures and tests of the over identifying restrictions were favourable to the model specification in particular anticipated monetary growth was found to have no significant effect on output

climate policy with bentham rawls preferences a bentham rawls welfare function is the weighted sum of the net present welfare bentham and the welfare of the worst off generation rawls if utility is non decreasing over time optimal climate policy is more stringent in the near term under the bentham criterion than under the bentham rawls criterion if utility is decreasing bentham rawls abatement is higher if there is a chance of decreasing utility bentham rawls optimal climate policy is probably less stringent than bentham policy

the behavioural economics of climate change this paper attempts to bring some central insights from behavioural economics into the economics of climate change in particular it discusses i implications of prospect theory the equity premium puzzle and time inconsistent preferences in the choice of discount rate used in climate change cost assessments and ii the implications of various kinds of social preferences for the outcome of climate negotiations several reasons are presented for why it appears advisable to choose a substantially lower social discount rate than the average return on investments it also seems likely that taking social preferences into account increases the possibilities of obtaining international agreements compared to the standard model however there are also effects going in the opposite direction and the importance of sanctions is emphasized

benefits transfer of willingness to pay estimates and functions for health risk reductions a cross country study this paper provides a first application of the techniques of benefits transfer to the health economics literature these techniques seek to transfer the value of some good from one survey context to a new policy context so avoiding the need for new valuation surveys each time a new policy question arises two approaches to benefits transfer are assessed the simple transfer of mean values and the transferral of value functions we develop a new methodology for the latter approach in which value functions are iteratively built up from theoretical principles with transfer errors being tested each time a new variable is added through a novel application of advanced statistical tests we show that this approach outperforms the transferral of statistically driven best fit functions the case study presented focuses upon the transfer of contingent valuation cv willingness to pay wtp estimates and associated value functions for reducing the health risks associated with solar ultraviolet uv exposure common format studies are conducted in four countries with transfers between all of these being undertaken by calculating errors in predicted versus actual values across countries we show that when transferring between similar contexts simple mean value transfers outperform more complex value function transfers with the magnitude of the former errors being encouragingly small however this result is reversed when transfers are undertaken across dissimilar contexts where value functions partially adjust for these differences in summary these findings provide support and guidance for future applications

uncertainty and climate change uncertainty is pervasive in analysis of climate change how should economists allow for this and how have they allowed for it this paper reviews both of

the long term default performance of bank underwritten security issues abstract the glass steagall act of 1933 barred commercial banks and their affiliates from underwriting and dealing in securities activities amidst concerns that banks abused the trust of their depositors and clientele by systematically underwriting poor quality security issues this paper examines if these concerns were justified by studying the long term default performance of bank underwritten issues as compared to non bank underwritten issues the evidence shows that contrary to conventional wisdom bank underwritten issues defaulted less than non bank underwritten issues over a seven year period from the issue date and had a significantly lower mortality rate

what factors drive inequalities in carbon tax incidence decomposing socioeconomic inequalities in carbon tax incidence in ireland abstract carbon taxes increase the cost of necessary household energy expenditures in many developed countries carbon taxes are regressive as they comprise a greater proportion of a poorer household s income certain socioeconomic groups are more negatively affected by these impacts than others while inequality of incidence by income group has received great attention in the literature a gap exists to quantify the inequality associated with socioeconomic characteristics this information is policy relevant as it may inform the most effective means to offset negative welfare impacts through changes to taxes and or social transfers this paper provides this contribution first the inequality of carbon tax incidence across the income spectrum is quantified using the concentration index methodology a subsequent multivariate decomposition quantifies the contribution each socioeconomic factor makes towards this inequality of incidence this is carried out for electricity motor fuel and all other home fuels to elicit variation of socioeconomic incidence by source while income contributes a great deal towards inequality of incidence for other home fuels other socioeconomic characteristics are the primary determinants of electricity and motor fuel related carbon tax incidence the relative importance of each characteristic in determining regressive impacts is quantified and this varies by carbon tax source

the unemployment rate consequences of partisan monetary policies economists and political scientists have identified several ways in which political motivations and institutional arrangements can affect macroeconomic policymaking one way is described by the political business cycle model 42 37 in which vote seeking politicians manipulate the path of the economy to secure unsustainably favorable conditions at election times variants of this model have been widely tested with limited success a second channel for political impacts comes through partisan policy changes brought about by electoral turnover the pathbreaking work in this literature includes the contributions of hibbs 30 31 32 33 and beck 11 these works have focused on the empirical issue of how unemployment rates vary under democratic and republican presidents in the u s and have found strong support for the proposition that unemployment rates decline under democratic administrations a third phenomenon has been studied primarily by economists and concerns the credibility problem faced by a central bank selecting money growth rates models of the credibility problem 8 21 describe a setting in which the central bank and the public interact by respectively choosing actual and expected money growth rates in a variant of the prisoners dilemma this interaction can result in excessive inflation

the rational timing of parliamentary elections this paper presents a rational choice model for the timing of parliamentary elections in political systems where the government has the option of calling an early election the optimal timing of elections involves the government weighing the benefits of calling an election versus the costs and is modelled mathematically as an optimal stopping problem the model implies that the timing of elections depends upon time left in the government s term the degree of electoral uncertainty the volatility of government popularity the government s time rate of discount and institutional constraints such as the length of term and whether the government is likely to be forced from power by a vote of no confidence

choosing a monetary value of greenhouse gases in assessment tools a comprehensive review there is a societal need for using monetary estimates of social impacts of co2 and other greenhouse gases in different assessment tools such as cost benefit analysis and life cycle assessment a number of estimates are available in the literature since these differ by several orders of magnitude there is ambiguity and confusion about which to use this review aims to give some guidance on this issue the variation in carbon value estimates depends on several uncertain aspects which will remain uncertain including climate sensitivity assumptions about future emissions and decision makers ethical standpoints hence there is no single correct monetary value for co2 it will depend on the ethical standpoint of the user due to this estimates of social costs of co2 emissions cannot be used for calculating an optimal emission level although they can inform such assessments it is suggested that marginal abatement cost values are used for emissions capped by binding targets in short term assessments and that social cost of carbon values should be used for all other emissions benchmark principles for choosing a monetary carbon value are suggested along with associated estimates depending on the choices made with regard to ethical standpoints and assumptions about future emissions and climate sensitivity estimates can be significantly higher than the ones typically used in assessment tools today the estimates need continuous updating and there is need for better understanding and communication around the limitations and uncertainties involved

sustainability under uncertainty a deontological approach a deontological or kantian approach to intergenerational fairness suggests that sustainability criteria should be imposed as prior constraints on the maximization of social preferences concerning the distribution of welfare between present and future generations in particular it is plausible to assert that each successive generation holds a duty to ensure that the expected welfare of its offspring is no less than its own perceived well being this moral rule implies a bias against actions that generate present benefits but impose the risk of irreversible future losses if the preservation of options would allow for improved decisions as new information became available

the economic effects of climate change greenhouse gas emissions are fundamental both to the world s energy system and to its food production the production of co2 the predominant gas implicated in climate change is intrinsic to fossil fuel combustion specifically thermal energy is generated by breaking the chemical bonds in the carbohydrates oil coal and natural gas and oxidizing the components to co2 and h2o one cannot have cheap energy without carbon dioxide emissions similarly methane ch4 emissions an important greenhouse gas in its own right are necessary to prevent the build up of hydrogen in anaerobic digestion and decomposition one cannot have beef mutton dairy or rice without methane emissions climate change is the mother of all externalities larger more complex and more uncertain than any other environmental problem the sources of greenhouse gas emissions are more diffuse than any other environmental problem every company every farm every household emits some greenhouse gases the effects are similarly pervasive weather affects agriculture energy use health and many aspects of nature which in turn affects everything and everyone the causes and consequences of climate change are very diverse and those in low income countries who contribute least to climate change are most vulnerable to its effects climate change is also a long term problem some greenhouse gases have an atmospheric life time measured in tens of thousands of years the quantities of emissions involved are enormous in 2000 carbon dioxide emissions alone and excluding land use change were 24 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide tco2

an overlapping generations model of climate economy interactions a numerically calibrated overlapping generations model of climate change and the world economy is examined in this paper in the absence of intergenerational transfers efficient rates of greenhouse gas emissions abatement rise from 16 in the present to 25 in the long run while mean global temperature increases by 7 40c relative to the preindustrial norm a utilitarian optimum which attaches equal weight to each generation s life cycle utility yields abatement rates that rise from 48 to 89 with a long run temperature increase of 3 40c a second best utilitarian path in which intergenerational transfers are by assumption institutionally infeasible also supports stringent abatement measures i introduction the infinitely lived agent framework pioneered by frank ramsey 1928 has emerged as a central structure in the economics of climate change as characterized by ipcc 1996 working group iii climate change occurs when anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases principally carbon dioxide but also chlorofluorocarbons methane nitrous oxide and water vapor contribute to long term increases in mean global temperature potentially disrupting ecological systems and climate dependent production activities the best known study on the economics of this subject is nordhaus 1994 dynamic model of climate and the economy dice which incorporates assumptions regarding the costs and benefits of greenhouse gas emissions in a standard one sector growth model in nordhaus analysis a 50 reduction in greenhouse gas emissions would reduce gross world output by 0 93 a doubling of greenhouse gas concentrations relative to the preindustrial norm which is expected to occur by the middle of the twenty first century would reduce output by

weight factors in cost benefit analysis of climate change equity considerations may justify the use of weight factors when estimating the costs of climate change this paper reviews different weight factors that have been used in the climate economics literature based on a simple model it is shown that although the different weight factors imply substantially different cost damage estimates they actually yield the same optimal emission reductions this paradox is explained by the fact that some of the approaches require that also the abatement costs are weighted and this offsets the effect of the diverging cost damage estimates the model is then used to analyse the importance weighting may have on the overall cost benefit analysis at present when most of the global emissions of fossil co2 originate from the industrialised countries the global optimal emissions are considerably lower if costs are weighted however the more the emissions in developing countries grow the less important becomes the introduction of weight factors in cost benefit analysis of climate change for the global emission reductions in the model developed here on a regional level the introduction of weight factors continues to play an important role implying substantially lower emissions in the rich region and slightly higher in the poor

developments in non expected utility theory the hunt for a descriptive theory of choice under risk this article reviews recent developments in the economic theory of individual decision making under risk since the 1950s it has been known that individual choices violate the standard model of expected utility in predictable ways considerable research effort has now been devoted to the project of developing a superior descriptive model following an overview of non expected utility theories which distinguishes between conventional and non conventional approaches the paper seeks to assess these alternative models in terms of empirical success using laboratory and field data and theoretical usefulness the closing sections reflect on some new directions emerging in this literature

are the economic costs of non stabilizing the atmosphere prohibitive a response to gerlagh and papyrakis co rr ec te d pr oo f news views are the economic costs of non stabilizing the atmosphere prohibitive a response to gerlagh and papyrakis christian azar stephen h schneider b a department of physical resource theory chalmers university of technology goteborg university 412 96 gothenburg sweden b department of biological sciences stanford university 371 serra mall stanford ca 94305 5020 usa received 10 june 2003 accepted 11 june 2003

communicating trade offs amid controversial science decision support for climate policy abstract the paper considers the decision that arises in climate policy where there is expert disagreement about the correct scientific model and where a group of stakeholders needs to agree on a common policy target policy choice is posed as a decision under knightian uncertainty where decision makers lack grounds for assigning a particular probability distribution across contending forecasting models the decision is then framed as one of balancing two competing objectives that plausibly align with the dominant concern of stakeholders from each side in the policy debate a decision criterion is proposed to identify options for compromise that balance these objectives in different ways the criterion spans three standard non bayesian decision criteria policies generated by the criterion are combined with visual tools to communicate what s at stake in an environmental policy decision in which stakeholders disagree both about scientific models and about the relative importance of risks to the environment versus risks to economic growth the approach summarizes information that could be useful to policy makers tasked with negotiating a compromise the framework is applied to climate policy using dice 2007 nordhaus 2008 the results highlight a basic asymmetry between the mistake of doing too little and that of doing too much that suggests a strong argument for avoiding the current status quo of global inaction

how should the distant future be discounted when discount rates are uncertain abstract the so called weitzman gollier puzzle is the fact that two seemingly symmetric and equally plausible ways of dealing with uncertain future discount rates appear to give diametrically opposed results the puzzle is resolved when agents optimize their consumption plans the long run discount rate declines over time toward its lowest possible value

targets for global climate policy an overview a survey of the economic impact of climate change and the marginal damage costs shows that carbon dioxide emissions are a negative externality the estimated pigou tax and its growth rate are too low to justify the climate policy targets set by political leaders a lower discount rate or greater concern for the global distribution of income would justify more stringent climate policy but would imply an overhaul of other public policies catastrophic risk justifies more stringent climate policy but only to a limited extent

specifications of social welfare in economic studies of climate policy overview of criteria and related policy insights an important assumption in economic studies of climate policy is the social welfare function this paper shows that applying distinct decision or social welfare criteria can result in different optimal policies of climate control notably if climate change impacts are uncertain first decision criteria in current climate economic studies are reviewed next the most important alternatives are discussed including their mathematical formalization and incorporation in economy climate models most of these alternative criteria suggest more stringent climate policies to be optimal than the standard discounted utilitarianism approach however several important welfare criteria have not or hardly seen any application in the economic analysis of climate policy we conclude that there is clear need for systematic research on this theme for which the current review provides a solid basis

epstein zin utility in dice is risk aversion irrelevant to climate policy climate change involves uncertain probabilities of catastrophic risks and very longterm consequences of current actions climate economics therefore is centrally concerned with the treatment of risk and time yet conventional assumptions about utility and optimal economic growth create a perverse connection between risk aversion and time preference such that more aversion to current risks implies less concern for future outcomes and vice versa the same conflation of risk aversion and time preference leads to the equity premium puzzle in finance a promising response to the equity premium puzzle the recursive utility of epstein and zin allows separation of risk aversion and time preference at the cost of considerable analytic complexity we introduce an accessible implementation of epstein zin utility into the dice model of climate economics creating a hybrid ez dice model using epstein zin parameters from the finance literature and climate uncertainty parameters from the science literature we find that the optimal climate policy in ez dice calls for rapid abatement of carbon emissions it is similar to standard dice results with the discount rate set to equal the risk free rate of return ez dice solutions are sensitive to the intertemporal elasticity of substitution but remarkably insensitive to risk aversion insensitivity to risk aversion may reflect the difficulty of modeling catastrophic risks within dice implicit in dice are strong assumptions about the cost of climate stabilization and the certainty and speed of success under these assumptions risk aversion would in fact be unimportant a more realistic analysis will require a subtler treatment of catastrophic climate risk

a quantitative minimax regret approach to climate change does discounting still matter abstract using cost benefit analysis to determine an optimal climate mitigation target is criticised especially because i it fails to sufficiently take into account low probability high impact events and ii results strongly depend on the discount rate used one of the alternative suggestions to inform policymakers about the right mitigation target that does take the risks associated with low probability high impact events explicitly into account is the minimax regret criterion we apply the minimax regret criterion quantitatively using an integrated assessment model with extreme values for climate sensitivity damage estimates and mitigation costs the goal is to analyse whether such a method leads to different results compared to standard cost benefit analysis and whether the results are still sensitive to the discount rate used we find that the minimax regret approach leads to more stringent and robust climate targets for relatively low discount rates and if both a high climate sensitivity and high damage estimates are assumed if one of these assumptions does not hold the difference between the minimax regret approach and standard cost benefit analysis is much smaller therefore we conclude that the discount rate used can still be of vital importance even when applying a minimax regret approach

corporate structure liquidity and investment evidence from japanese industrial groups this paper presents evidence suggesting that information and incentive problems in the capital market affect investment we come to this conclusion by examining two sets of japanese firms the first set has close financial ties to large japanese banks that serve as their primary source of external finance and are likely to be well informed about the firm the second set of firms has weaker links to a main bank and presumably faces greater problems raising capital investment is more sensitive to liquidity for the second set of firms than for the first set the analysis also highlights the role of financial intermediaries in the investment process

positively gamma discounting combining the opinions of experts on the social discount rate the aggregated term structure of social discount rates that results from weitzman s 2001 survey of expert opinion is shown to be highly sensitive to the nature of the responses if variation reflects irreducible differences in ethical judgments the term structure can decline rapidly if variation occurred because respondents were forecasting future rates under uncertainty the term structure is much flatter because additional experts provide new information the former approach triples the social cost of carbon when compared to the latter the distinction between heterogeneity and uncertainty illustrates the need for a nuanced treatment of survey data in intergenerational policy making

climate policy under sustainable discounted utilitarianism empirical evaluation of policies to mitigate climate change has been largely confined to the application of discounted utilitarianism du du is controversial both due to the conditions through which it is justified and due to its consequences for climate policies where the discounting of future utility gains from present abatement efforts makes it harder for such measures to justify their present costs in this paper we propose sustainable discounted utilitarianism sdu as an alternative principle for evaluation of climate policy unlike undiscounted utilitarianism which always assigns zero relative weight to present utility sdu is an axiomatically based criterion which departs from du by assigning zero weight to present utility if and only if the present is better off than the future using the dice integrated assessment model to run risk analysis we show that it is possible for the future to be worse off than the present along a business as usual development path consequently sdu and du differ and willingness to pay for emissions reductions is sometimes significantly higher under sdu than under du under sdu stringent schedules of emissions reductions increase social welfare even for a relatively high utility discount rate

long term financial contracts can mitigate the adverse selection problem in project financing this paper shows that long term contracts can be used in competitive financial markets to separate entrepreneurs of different abilities in equilibrium poor entrepreneurs are financed with a sequence of standard debt contracts good entrepreneurs are financed with a modified contract in which the terms of the second part of the contract are contingent upon whether default is observed at the first date sorting is achieved through the contingent term in the contract in equilibrium good entrepreneurs will typically pay high interest rates to start with followed by relatively lower rates later if they are successful the solution in the paper is contrasted with the use of collateral incomplete information plays an important role in explaining the existence and form of enduring relationships when agents have private information and cannot precommit to future actions and announcements there may be a role for multiperiod contracts see townsend 1982 and hart and holmstrom 1986 such contracts tie future contractual terms to current behaviour moreover these contracts can be self enforcing simply relying upon the self interest of agents to see them through this paper shows that long term relationships may help overcome adverse selection problems the basic idea is very simple entrepreneurs have different probabilities of completing successive projects successfully observation of the returns cannot reveal the type of project however repeated observation of returns does give information about the type of project by the law of large numbers even if there are only two observations at successive dates it may be possible to separate types by making the terms of the contract at the second date conditional upon whether default is observed at the first we consider an entrepreneur who is risk neutral and who has a project at each of two successive dates the projects may require outside finance from banks risk neutral banks offer two period credit contracts to the entrepreneur we assume that there are two types of entrepreneur one with a high probability of completing projects successfully and a second with a low probability the probability of success is private information to the entrepreneur it is not known by the bank the problem of generalising the analysis to more entrepreneur types is discussed in the conclusion in section 2 of the paper it is shown that in this setting an adverse selection problem may arise we consider a sequence of standard debt contracts which specify a fixed payment at each date the important point to note here is that with

organization structure and credibility evidence from commercial bank securities activities before the glass steagall act we examine the two ways in which us commercial banks organized their investment banking operations before the 1933 glass steagall act forced the banks to leave the securities business as an internal securities department within the bank and as a separately incorporated affiliate with its own board of directors while departments underwrote seemingly higher quality firms and securities than did comparable affiliates the departments obtained lower prices for the issues they underwrote the higher risk premium associated with the internal department is consistent with investors discounting for the greater likelihood of conflicts of interest when lending and underwriting are within the same structure as a result commercial banks evolved toward choosing the separate affiliate structure our results suggest that internal structure is an effective commitment mechanism and absent other distortions market pressures would propel banks to adopt an internal structure that would address regulators concerns about conflicts of interest

the rationality of economic voting and the macroeconomic regime since voter rationality plays a major role in theories of political economics it is important for political analysts to investigate the extent of voter sophistication a conventional strategy for addressing this question is to determine what decision rule voters appear to use by estimating rival political support models that embody varying assumptions about voter rationality however under some circumstances such a strategy may be incapable of identifying the descriptively superior model due to an observational equivalence problem the paper estimates the competing political support models under alternative macroeconomic regimes and finds evidence favoring the nonrationalist or adaptive model

greenhouse economics learn before you leap in virtually no area of the human enterprise is there more uncertainty than in matters of national defense how well armed trained allied clever and persevering an aggressor might be is often uncertain moreover the nature of an attack the direction of and with what weapons and strategy a strike might be made is normally deliberately concealed in response to this great uncertainty the united states has military bases around the world nuclear submarines patrolling the remotest parts of the oceans missiles poised to strike against any land or airborne target and military satellites orbitin g the entire planet thousands of highly trained intelligence officers filter through the minutia of activities of perceived enemies and prepare elaborate contingency plans the u s has carefully negotiated verifiable international arms control treaties finally it has developed the most advanced and sophisticated weapons and communications technology in the world to serve these functions the cost of this form of military security currently consumes about a third of the united states federal budget indeed the u s has spent in the last decade alone more than 1 5 trillion 1012 dollars to build up an arms apparatus against an enemy whose chance of attacking the u s in the last quarter century was never rated higher than about 3 now consider the stance of the current u s administration on global warming nearly every sector of the american economy could be adversely affected by climatic change and nothing short of our national security and quality of life may be at stake most climatologists believe the chances of unprecedented climate change are at least 50 yet offering as justification the uncertainty in timing and location of the strike the bush administration is doing virtually nothing to prepare a defense against this threat

a review of the stern review on the economics of climate change how much and how fast should we react to the threat of global warming the stern review argues that the damages from climate change are large and that nations should undertake sharp and immediate reductions in greenhouse gas emissions an examination of the review s radical revision of the economics of climate change finds however that it depends decisively on the assumption of a near zero time discount rate combined with a specific utility function the review s unambiguous conclusions about the need for extreme immediate action will not survive the substitution of assumptions that are consistent with today s marketplace real interest rates and savings rates

the damage costs of climate change toward more comprehensive calculations it is argued that estimating the damage costs of a certain benchmark climate change is not sufficient what is needed are cost functions and confidence intervals although these are contained in the integrated models and their technical manuals this paper brings them into the open in order to stimulate discussion after briefly reviewing the benchmark climate change damage costs region specific cost functions are presented which distinguish tangible from intangible losses and the losses due to a changing climate from those due to a changed climate furthermore cost functions are assumed to be quadratic as an approximation of the unknown but presumably convex functions results from the damage module of the integrated climate economy model fund are presented next uncertainties are incorporated and expected damages are calculated it is shown that because of convex loss functions and right skewed uncertain ties the risk premium is substantial calling for more action than analysis based on best guess estimates the final section explores some needs for further scientific research

on modeling and interpreting the economics of catastrophic climate change with climate change as prototype example this paper analyzes the implications of structural uncertainty for the economics of low probability high impact catastrophes even when updated by bayesian learning uncertain structural parameters induce a critical tail fattening of posterior predictive distributions such fattened tails have strong im plications for situations like climate change where a catastrophe is theoretically possible because prior knowledge cannot place sufficiently narrow bounds on overall damages this paper shows that the economic consequences of fat tailed structural uncertainty along with unsureness about high temperature damages can readily outweigh the effects of discounting in climate change policy analysis

did banks security affiliates add value evidence from the commercial banking industry during the 1920s this paper finds that banks security affiliates added 4 percent to 7 percent to the market value of commercial banks in 1926 and 1927 this result is robust to the inclusion of a large array of control variables including risk regulatory environment and financial health variables such as the capital asset ratio and profitability measures bank size explains about 40 percent of this premium thus suggesting that economies of scale were present the remaining 60 percent of the premium most likely came from economies of scope this result implies that the glass steagall act by disallowing banks involvement in the securities industry had a direct cost in lost market value for the commercial banking industry