learning and wage dynamics we develop a dynamic model of learning about worker ability in a competitive labor market the model produces three testable implications regarding wage dynamics 1 although the role of schooling in the labor market s inference process declines as performance observations accumulate the estimated effect of schooling on the level of wages is independent of labor market experience 2 timeinvariant variables correlated with ability but unobserved by employers such as certain test scores are increasingly correlated with wages as experience increases and 3 wage residuals are a martingale we present evidence from the nlsy that is broadly consistent with the model s predictions

on the undesirability of commodity taxation even when income taxation is not optimal abstract an important result due to atkinson and stiglitz 1976 atkinson a b stiglitz j e 1976 the design of tax structure direct versus indirect taxation journal of public economics 6 55 75 is that differential commodity taxation is not optimal in the presence of an optimal nonlinear income tax given weak separability of utility between labor and all consumption goods this article demonstrates that this conclusion holds regardless of whether the income tax is optimal in particular given any commodity tax and income tax system differential commodity taxation can be eliminated in a manner that results in a pareto improvement also differential commodity taxation can be proportionally reduced so as to generate a pareto improvement in addition for commodity tax reforms that neither eliminate nor proportionally reduce differential taxation a simple efficiency condition is offered for determining whether a pareto improvement is possible

comparative dynamics in a health investment model the method of comparative dynamics fully exploits the inter temporal structure of optimal control models i derive comparative dynamic results in a simplified demand for health model the effect of a change in the depreciation rate on the optimal paths for health capital and investment in health is studied by use of a phase diagram

the effect of uncertainty on the demand for medical care health capital and wealth we analyze the effect of the uncertainty of the incidence of illness on the demand for medical care and on the accumulation of health capital and wealth over the retirement years we use a simplified version of a dynamic grossman household production model to characterize patterns of an individual s precautionary behavior elderly individuals respond to uncertainty by smoothing their expected utility over time by making specific patterns of purchases of medical care and consumption we examine these patterns for individuals with different degrees of risk aversion

global demographic trends and social security reform how sustainable are the current social security systems in the developed economies given the projected demographic trends the most recent literature has answered this question through dynamic general equilibrium models in a closed economy framework this paper provides a new quantitative benchmark of analysis for this question represented by a two region model south and north of the world economy where capital flows across regions the timing and the extent of the demographic transition and the associated economic forces shaping capital accumulation and equilibrium factor prices are very different in the two regions thus the projected paths of interest rate and wage rate in the north diverge substantially between closed and open economy we perform a wide range of policy experiments under both scenarios our main conclusion is that if one is interested in quantifying the path of the fiscal variables e g the value of the payroll tax needed to keep the social security system viable or to finance a transition towards a fully funded system then these two benchmarks yield similar results however if the focus is on quantifying the path of factor prices aggregate variables and ultimately welfare then the two approaches can diverge significantly

wealth accumulation over the life cycle and precautionary savings this article constructs and simulates a life cycle model of wealth accumulation and estimates the parameters of the utility function the rate of time preference and the coefficient of risk aversion by matching the simulated median wealth profiles with those observed in the panel study of income dynamics and in the survey of consumer finances the estimates imply a low degree of patience and a high degree of risk aversion the results are used to study the importance of precautionary savings in explaining wealth accumulation they imply that wealth accumulation is driven mostly by precautionary motives at the beginning of the life cycle whereas savings for retirement purposes become significant only closer to retirement

social security unanticipated benefit increases and the timing of retirement between 1969 and 1972 real u s social security retirement benefits rose by 20 the rise was unanticipated and followed over 15 years of relatively constant real benefits this paper proposes a model of retirement behaviour in which workers respond differently although in a theoretically consistent manner to the anticipated and unanticipated components of the social security benefit they can receive upon retirement the retirement age decision in the presence of unanticipated benefit changes is shown to be a special case of utility maximization under a nonlinear budget constraint the model is estimated using the longitudinal retirement history survey between 1969 and 1973 real social security benefits for u s workers with fixed earnings histories were raised by more than 20 these increases were the first significant increases in social security since the early 1950 s at the same time that retirement benefits were rising the trend toward early retirement among older american men accelerated in the period from 1965 to 1970 the labour force participation rate of men aged 55 to 64 fell 1 6 percentage points from 84x6 to 83 0 but in the five years after 1970 the rate fell an additional 7 4 points to 75 6 the participation rate of men over 65 fell by 1 1 points in the five years after 1965 but by 5 2 points during the mid 1970 s 1 not surprisingly a large share of this labour force decline has been attributed to the effects of the social security increases enacted in 1969 and 1972 the purpose of this paper is to determine the precise effect of the unanticipated benefit increases on the timing of retirement the effect of social security on the age at retirement has been the subject of lively debate in recent years the literature has been reviewed in two recent papers by mitchell and fields 1982 and hurd 1983 who reach nearly opposite conclusions about the lessons that can be drawn from past empirical research mitchell and fields find that no definite judgment can be reached about the effects of social security on retirement while hurd argues that more careful studies have all found a significant and meaningful effect of social security on early retirement certainly the earlier studies by boskin 1977 and boskin and hurd 1978 found very large social security effects with boskin concluding that the social security system has been the major factor in the explosion in earlier retirement boskin 1977 p 1 very recent studies by burkhauser and quinn 1983 burtless and moffitt 1984 diamond and hausman 1984 fields and mitchell 1984 and hausman and wise 1985 have found smaller social security effects however none of them dealt explicitly with the rapid rise in real benefits during the early 1970 s the approach taken in this paper differs significantly from that in the earlier research just cited the proposed econometric model takes full account of the nonlinear relationship between goods consumption and the age at retirement introduced by social security

an empirical model of labor supply in a life cycle setting this paper formulates and estimates a structural intertemporal model of labor supply using theoretical characterizations derived from an economic model of lifetime behavior a two step empirical analysis yields estimates of intertemporal and uncompensated substitution effects which provide the information needed to predict the response of hours of work to life cycle wage growth and shifts in the lifetime wage path

project evaluation with democratic decision making what does cost benefit analysis really measure abstract it is often argued that projects involving public good changes should be chosen on the basis of monetary valuation and cost benefit analysis cba however cba is not value free when used to measure welfare it is based on highly controversial value judgements when used to measure efficiency it is based on assumptions of limited relevance to democratic decision making processes cba measures total net willingness to pay neither more nor less while interesting in its own right the normative significance of this indicator is not obvious

uncertainty and health care spending by the poor the health capital model revisited this short theoretical paper examines health care utilization by the poor in the context of grossman s 1972 health capital model earlier work has shown that uncertainty can reduce the attractiveness to the poor of health capital investments this paper demonstrates that uncertainty can also have precisely the opposite effect that is while there may be cases in which it is excessively risky for the poor to invest in their health there may also be cases in which the poor can ill afford the risks that arise from not making timely investments in their health

public goods self selection and optimal income taxation using the self selection approach to tax analysis this paper derives a modified samuelson rule for the provision of public goods when the government deploys an optimal nonlinear income tax this approach gives a straightforward interpretation of the central result in this area generalises it and provides a simple characterisation of optimal policy in a wide range of circumstances the analysis also emphasises and clarifies the significance of the choice of numeraire for the optimality of decentralising public spending decisions it is well known that the famous samuelson rule for the provision of public goods may not be applicable when the tax revenues used to finance the public goods come from distorting taxes the principle was recognized as long ago as pigou 1947 long before the samuelson rule was devised pigou saw that in addition to the resource cost involved in transferring funds from the private to the public sector there was a deadweight loss involved from this insight he suggested that the criterion for providing public goods should be more stringent than the samuelson rule would later suggest in particular one might expect that the inclusion of the deadweight loss of taxes as part of the cost of providing a public good would lead to a reduction in its optimal provision relative to a situation in which lump sum taxes were available the problem was investigated more systematically by atkinson and stern 1974 who considered the case in which a public good is financed by a set of optimal commodity taxes all individuals were assumed to be identical so efficiency alone dictated the objective they found that no prima facie case could be made for the pigou position that the use of distortionary taxes called for a reduction in the supply of the public good their analysis clearly showed that there were two influences at work when the financing of a public good was by distorting taxes on the one hand

life cycle responses to health insurance status this paper studies the lifetime effects of exogenous changes in health insurance coverage e g medicare ppaca termination of employer provided plans on the dynamic optimal allocation consumption leisure health expenditures status health and wealth and welfare we solve simulate and structurally estimate a parsimonious life cycle model with endogenous exposure to morbidity and mortality risks and exogenous health insurance by varying coverage we identify the marginal effects of insurance when young and or when old on allocations statuses and welfare our results highlight positive effects of insurance on health wealth and welfare as well as mid life substitution away from healthy leisure in favor of more health expenses caused by peaking wages and accelerating health issues

indirect taxation is superfluous under separability and taste homogeneity a simple proof indirect taxation is of no use when nonlinear income taxation is available in an economy where everyone has the same taste for goods an elementary proof of this result due to atkinson and stiglitz atkinson a stiglitz j 1976 the design of tax structure direct versus indirect taxation journal of public economics 6 55 75 is provided

wealth inequality and intergenerational links previous work has had difficulty generating household saving behaviour that makes the distribution of wealth much more concentrated than that of labour earnings and that makes the richest households hold onto large amounts of wealth even during very old age i construct a quantitative general equilibrium overlapping generations model in which parents and children are linked by accidental and voluntary bequests and by earnings ability i show that voluntary bequests can explain the emergence of large estates while accidental bequests alone cannot and that adding earnings persistence within families increases wealth concentration even more i also show that the introduction of a bequest motive generates lifetime savings profiles more consistent with the data

towards a micro founded theory of aggregate labour supply we build a heterogeneous agents life cycle model that captures a large number of salient features of individual male labour supply over the life cycle by education both along the intensive and extensive margins the model provides an aggregation theory of individual labour supply firmly grounded on individual level micro evidence and is used to study the aggregate labour supply responses to changes in the economic environment we find that the aggregate labour supply elasticity to a transitory wage shock is 1 75 with the extensive margin accounting for 62 of the response furthermore we find that the aggregate labour supply elasticity to a permanent compensated wage change is 0 44

uncertain medical expenses and precautionary saving near the end of the life cycle this paper introduces a dynamic structural model of household consumption decisions in which elderly families consider the effects of uncertain future medical expenses when deciding current levels of consumption the model with uncertain medical expenses implies a potentially important role for precautionary saving incentives to explain slow rates of dissaving among elderly americans during retirement rather than just simulating the stochastic dynamic model preference parameters are estimated using panel data on health wealth and expenditures for retired families the health uncertainty model predicts consumption levels closer to observed expenditures than a life cycle model with uncertain longevity however elderly families typically dissave their financial assets more slowly than even the baseline health uncertainty model predicts is optimal

a model of the demand for longevity and the value of life extension we specify a demand function for longevity or quantity of life along with corresponding demand functions for indicators of quality of life and a value of health and life extension function we show that the demand for health must be derived in conjunction with that for longevity and the related consumption plan and that all choices depend on initial individual endowments and terminal conditions our comparative dynamics predictions indicate that optimal health and longevity are increasing functions of endowed wealth rather than necessarily current income that improvements in opportunities to produce health can accentuate the differences between endowed health and attained longevity levels and that the value individuals ascribe to their health may be increasing over a good portion of their life cycle we use this model to analyze observed empirical variations in levels and trends of life expectancy and in exposure to health risks across different population groups

can guest workers solve japan s fiscal problems the labor force in japan is projected to fall from 64 million in 2014 to 20 million in 2100 signaling unprecedented tax transfer adjustments to achieve fiscal sustainability in this paper we develop a quantitative overlapping generations model to measure the impact of guest worker programs in japan against a baseline general equilibrium transition in which the consumption tax adjusts to achieve fiscal sustainability we compute alternative transitions with guest worker programs depending on the size and skill distribution of guest workers these programs may mitigate japan s fiscal imbalance problem with a relatively manageable increase in the consumption tax jel e2 e6 h5 j11 j15

the demand for health with uncertainty and insurance this paper develops michael grossman s demand for health model by letting the depreciation rate depend upon the level of health by letting the incidence and size of illness be uncertain and by investigating how the individual s demand for health would be affected by the introduction of insurance beside the more theoretical results there are also some results with important policy implications when formulating the hypothetical scenario in willingness to pay wtp studies it is important whether the individual believes that the level of health is uncertain or not the existence of insurance could also affect the stated wtp amount taking this into account could therefore explain some of the differences in the wtp for seemingly identical health care programs in different countries or different areas in the same country

defying gravity can japanese sovereign debt continue to increase without a crisis japan has the highest debt to gdp ratio among advanced countries and many studies find that the current fiscal regime of japan is not sustainable yet the japanese government bond continues to enjoy low and stable interest rates the most plausible explanation for such an apparent anomaly is that the bonds are predominantly held by the japanese residents who are willing to absorb increasing amount of japanese government bonds jgb without requiring high yields even if the japanese residents continue to invest their new saving into the government bonds however japan s fiscal situation is not sustainable which this paper shows through simulations under various scenarios in all of the scenarios that assume the fiscal policy stance of the japanese government does not change in the future we find that the amount of government debt will exceed the private sector financial assets available for the government debt purchase in the next 10 years or so the paper also shows that sufficiently large tax increases and or expenditure cuts in the future would put the government debt on a sustainable path thus if the market believes that japan will embark on such fiscal consolidation in the next 10 years at most the low jgb yields are justifiable if and when the expectation changes however a fiscal crisis can be triggered even before the government debt hits the ceiling of the private sector financial assets takeo hoshi and takatoshi ito

interpreting aggregate wage growth the role of labor market participation a new and easily implementable framework for the empirical analysis of the relationship between aggregate and individual wages is developed aggregate real wages are shown to contain three important bias terms one associated with the dispersion of individual wages a second deriving from compositional changes in the selected sample of workers and a third reflecting the distribution of working hours their importance for interpreting the path of aggregate wages and of the returns to education for recent experience in britain is highlighted a close correspondence between the estimated biases and the patterns of differences shown by aggregate wages is established

saving and liquidity constraints this paper is concerned with the theory of saving when consumers are not permitted to borrow and with the ability of such a theory to account for some of the stylized facts of saving behavior the models presented in the paper seem to account for important aspects of reality that are not explained by traditional life cycle models copyright 1991 by the econometric society

deconstructing life cycle expenditure we revisit two well known facts regarding life cycle expenditures the hump shaped profile of nondurable expenditures and the increase in cross household consumption inequality we document that the behavior of total nondurables masks surprising heterogeneity in the life cycle profile of individual consumption subcomponents we provide evidence that the categories driving life cycle consumption either are inputs into market work or are amenable to home production using a quantitative model we document that the disaggregated life cycle consumption profiles imply a level of uninsurable permanent income risk that is substantially lower than that implied by a model using a composite consumption good

uncertain lifetime life protection and the value of life saving abstract the analytic innovation is treating life s end as uncertain and life expectancy as partly the product of individuals efforts to self protect against mortality and morbidity risks the demand for self protection is modeled in a stochastic life cycle framework under alternative insurance options the model helps explain the trend and systematic diversity in life expectancies across different population groups as well as the wide variability in reported value of life saving estimates the analysis yields a closed form solution for individuals value of life saving that is estimable empirically it reflects the impacts of specific personal characteristics and alternative insurance options on both life expectancy and its valuation

the effect of social security on labor supply a cohort analysis of the notch generation this article uses aggregate birth year calendar year level data derived from the current population survey cps to estimate the effect of social security wealth on the labor supply of older men in the 1970s and 1980s the analysis focuses on measuring the impact of the 1977 amendments to the social security act which created a substantial unanticipated reduction in social security wealth for individuals born after 1916 this differential in benefits has become known as the benefit notch results indicate that labor supply continued to decline for the notch babies who received lower social security benefits than earlier cohorts

achieving fiscal balance in japan japan is aging and has the highest government debt to output ratio among advanced economies in this article we build a micro data based large scale overlapping generations model for japan in which individuals differ in age gender employment type income and asset holdings and incorporate the japanese pension rules using existing pension law current fiscal policy and medium variants of demographic projections we produce future paths for government expenditures and tax revenues with implications for government debt and the public pension fund additional pension reform a higher consumption tax and higher female labor force participation help achieve fiscal stability

is consumption growth consistent with intertemporal optimization evidence from the consumer expenditure survey in this paper we show that some of the predictions of models of consumer intertemporal optimization are in line with the patterns of nondurable expenditure observed in u s household level data we propose a flexible specification of preferences that allows multiple commodities and yields empirically tractable equations we estimate preference parameters using the only u s micro data set with complete consumption information we show that previous rejections can be explained by the simplifying assumptions made in previous studies we also show that results obtained using good consumption or aggregate data can be misleading

humps and bumps in lifetime consumption in this article we argue that the life cycle model that allows demographics to affect household preferences and relaxes the assumption of certainty equivalence can generate hump shaped consumption profiles over age that are very similar to those observed in household level data sources and in particular match the differences in shape across different education groups liquidity constraints or myopia are not required to explain the empirical features of observed life cycle patterns

population aging social security and fiscal limits abstract we use an overlapping generations olg life cycle model with distortionary taxation on labor and capital to derive a threshold dependency ratio i e a point in the cross section distribution of the population beyond which tax revenues can no longer sustain the planned level of transfers to retirees we quantify the level of the threshold the distance of the economy from the threshold and the probability of reaching the threshold at some point in the future the model is calibrated on the united states and fourteen european countries which have dependency ratios among the highest in the world we examine the effects on the threshold and welfare of a number of policies often advocated to improve the sustainability of pension systems new tax data on dynamic laffer effects are provided

comparative dynamic analysis of the full grossman model the paper applies the method of comparative dynamic analysis to the full grossman model for a particular class of solutions it derives the equations implicitly defining the complete trajectories of the endogenous variables relying on the concept of frisch decision functions the impact of any parametric change on an endogenous variable can be decomposed into a direct and an indirect effect the focus of the paper is on marginal changes in the rate of health capital depreciation it also analyses the impact of either initial financial wealth or the initial stock of health capital while the direction of most effects remains ambiguous in the full model the assumption of a zero consumption benefit of health is sufficient to obtain a definite for any direct or indirect effect

labor force dynamics of older men this paper describes and analyzes movements of older men among labor force states in the united states using quarterly observations derived from the retirement history survey rhs the results indicate substantial undercounts in the biannual data indicating that the prevalence of labor force movements at older ages has been underestimated previously the results show that labor force dynamics at older ages are important including duration and spell occurrence dependence and work experience effects these effects are robust to nonparametric controls for unobserved heterogeneity the estimates indicate that social security benefits have strong effects on the timing of labor force transitions at older ages but that changes in social security benefit levels over time have not contributed much to the trend toward earlier labor force exit excerpt

social security liquidity and early retirement abstract this paper investigates the effect of social security on retirement decisions it argues that it is important to take realistic account of how recipients evaluate potential benefit flows the paper presents a simple retirement model in which liquidity constraints prompt individuals to use higher than market discount rates in evaluating future pension benefits as a consequence even an apparently actuarially fair early retirement benefit could on average discourage continued work using data on individual retirement decisions i find support for the argument that this phenomenon contributes to some of the observed increase in early retirement

efficiency and redistribution an evaluative review of louis kaplow s the theory of taxation and public economics louis kaplow proposes a two step methodology for normative policy analysis and illus trates it using various policy reforms the first step is to identify efficiency gains when hypothetical lump sum taxes can undo redistributive consequences the second step evaluates the redistributive effects using a strictly welfaristic social welfare function i critically review the foundations for kaplow s procedure and its reliance on strict welfarism i argue that basing efficiency gains on hypothetical lump sum tax adjust ments can lead to social welfare reducing policies if such tax adjustments are not car ried out i also indicate some conceptual problems with translating welfarism into policy evaluation when individuals have different utility function and review one promising alternative approach jel h20 h41 h50

confidence and the real value of money in an overlapping generations economy we demonstrate that stochastic bubbles which have a constant exogenous probability of collapsing may exist in general equilibrium on an intrinsically useless and unbacked asset money this may happen provided that the probability q that the bubble will persist next period is large enough and exceeds a threshold level q which we call the minimum rate of confidence this condition is always violated when the economy without bubble is dynamically efficient it is more likely to be satisfied in dynamically inefficient economies the larger the size of the inefficiency as measured by the excess of the growth rate over the no bubble interest rate we study both exchange and production economies

intertemporal substitution in labor supply evidence from micro data the sensitivity of the supply of labor to intertemporal variation in the wage is an important issue in macroeconomics the analysis of social security and pensions and the study of life cycle patterns of work this paper explores two approaches to the measurement of intertemporal substitution that have appeared in the literature the first approach is to use consumption to control for wealth and unobserved expectations about future wages in the labor supply equation the second approach is to estimate a first difference equation for hours in which labor supply from the previous period serves as a control for wealth and wage expectations the results indicate that intertemporal substitution elasticity for married men is positive but small

the effects of health insurance and self insurance on retirement behavior this paper provides an empirical analysis of the effects of employer provided health insurance medicare and social security on retirement behavior using data from the health and retirement study we estimate a dynamic programming model of retirement that accounts for both saving and uncertain medical expenses our results suggest that medicare is important for understanding retirement behavior and that uncertainty and saving are both important for understanding the labor supply responses to medicare half the value placed by a typical worker on his employer provided health insurance is the value of reduced medical expense risk raising the medicare eligibility age from 65 to 67 leads individuals to work an additional 0 074 years over ages 60 69 in comparison eliminating 2 years worth of social security benefits increases years of work by 0 076 years

a pareto improving commodity tax reform under a smooth nonlinear income tax abstract this paper analyzes the welfare effects of commodity tax reform in an economy with a nonlinear income tax and linear commodity taxes the main result is that we can find a tax reform program that improves every consumer s utility in the pareto sense unless efficiency loss in the economy is minimized under incentive compatibility the tax reform rule proposed here applies to a broad class of economies with arbitrary smooth income taxes the expenditure function approach makes our analyses clear and simple some intuition is presented on the role of commodity taxation in a mixed tax economy the relationship with previous work in optimal tax and tax reform theory is also discussed we extend our result to the case where the government spends tax revenue to provide a public good

the effect of part time work on wages evidence from the social security rules this article identifies the part time wage effect using hours variation caused by the social security rules we show that work hours and wages drop sharply at ages 62 and 65 we argue that the hours decline causes the wage decline resulting in a 25 wage penalty for men who cut their work week from 40 to 20 hours however we find little evidence for such an effect among women we also show that models that fail to account for the joint determination of hours and wages will understate the labor supply response to a tax change by about 26

does social security privatization produce efficiency gains while privatizing social security can improve labor supply incentives it can also reduce risk sharing we analyze a 50 privatization using an overlapping generations model where heterogeneous agents with elastic labor supply face idiosyncratic earnings shocks and longevity uncertainty when wage shocks are insurable privatization produces about 18 100 of extra resources for each future household after all transitional losses have been compensated for with lump sum taxes when wages are not insurable privatization reduces efficiency by about 2 400 per future household we check the robustness of these results to different model specifications as well as policy reforms and arrive at several surprising conclusions first privatization performs better in a closed economy where interest rates decline with capital accumulation than in an open economy second privatization also performs better when an actuarially fair private annuity market does not exist third government matching of private contributions on a progressive basis is not very effective at restoring efficiency and can actually cause harm

non monotonic health behaviours implications for individual health related behaviour in a demand for health framework a number of behaviours influence health in a non monotonic way physical activity and alcohol consumption for instance may be beneficial to one s health in moderate but detrimental in large quantities we develop a demand for health framework that incorporates the feature of a physiologically optimal level an individual may still choose a physiologically non optimal level because of the trade off in his or her preferences for health versus other utility affecting commodities however any deviation above or below the physiologically optimal level will be punished with respect to health distinguishing between two individual types we study a the qualitative properties of optimal time paths of health capital and health related behaviour b the perturbations of the optimal time paths that result from changes in exogenous parameters and c steady state properties predictions of the model and the implications for empirical analysis are discussed at length some comments on potential future extensions conclude the paper

health and other asset holdings despite clear evidence of correlations between financial and medical statuses and decisions most models treat financial and health related choices separately this article bridges this gap by proposing a tractable dynamic framework for the joint determination of optimal consumption portfolio holdings health investment and health insurance we solve for the optimal rules in closed form and capitalize on this tractability to gain a better understanding of the conditions under which separation between financial and health related decisions is sensible and of the pathways through which wealth and health determine allocations welfare and other variables of interest such as expected longevity or the value of health furthermore we show that the model is consistent with the observed patterns of individual allocations and provide realistic estimates of the parameters that confirm the relevance of all the main characteristics of the model

labor supply elasticity and social security reform abstract previous literature on social security reform has used a variety of period utility functions and calibrated values for the intertemporal elasticity of substitution ies in labor in this paper we show that the effects of social security reforms on aggregate labor supply are invariant to plausible values of the ies but the effect of such reforms on the profile of hours over the life cycle is highly sensitive to the ies we first establish these results analytically in a simple partial equilibrium setting and then demonstrate their robustness in a general equilibrium model calibrated to match key u s macroeconomic indicators we find that the aggregate effects are similar regardless of the wide range of the values of ies used in calibrated economies however social security reform leads to a large reallocation of hours worked over the life cycle from early years to later working years and the size of this reallocation significantly increases with the ies

the effects of health wealth and wages on labour supply and retirement behaviour this paper estimates a life cycle model of labour supply retirement and savings behaviour in which future health status and wages are uncertain individuals face a fixed cost of work and cannot borrow against future labour pension or social security income the method of simulated moments is used to match the life cycle profiles of labour force participation hours worked and assets that are estimated from the data to those that are generated by the model the model establishes that the tax structure of the social security system and pensions are key determinants of the high observed job exit rates at ages 62 and 65 removing the tax wedge embedded in the social security earnings test for individuals aged 65 and older would delay job exit by almost one year by contrast social security benefit levels health and borrowing constraints are less important determinants of job exit at older ages for example reducing social security benefits by 20 would cause workers to delay exit from the labour force by only three months

fiscal implications of immigration a net present value calculation focusing on the net fiscal effects the gain from admitting immigrants is computed for a welfare state with large expenditures and a large tax burden sweden prices and behavior are held constant which allows a detailed analysis of the effects of immigration the present value of future tax revenues minus outlays is potentially large usd 23 500 per young working age immigrant but an average new immigrant represents a net government loss of usd 20 500 the dominant factors are employment rates and age for young working age immigrants the break even participation rate for which the gain would be zero is 60 well below the empirical rate for this group

fiscal cost of demographic transition in japan abstract this paper quantifies the fiscal cost of demographic transition that japan is projected to experience over the next several decades in a life cycle model with endogenous saving consumption and labor supply in both intensive and extensive margins retirement waves of baby boom generations combined with a rise in longevity and low fertility rates raise the old age dependency ratio to 85 by 2050 the highest among major developed countries and generate a significant budget imbalance as the government faces rising costs of public pension and health and long term care insurance preserving the current level of the transfers will require a major increase in taxation using consumption taxes to balance the government budget the tax rate reaches the maximal value of 48 in late 2070s a pension reform to reduce benefits by 20 results in a peak tax rate of 37 which can be reduced further to 28 if the retirement age is also gradually raised by 5 years

trends in male labor force participation and retirement some evidence on the role of pensions and social security in the 1970 s and 1980 s this article estimates the effects of changes in pension plans and social security in the 1970s and 1980s on the steady state retirement of men work incentives associated with pension coverage and plan characteristics are calculated primarily from the 1969 79 retirement history study and the 1983 and 1989 surveys of consumer finances simulations with a structural retirement model suggest that the long run effects of changes in pension plans and social security account for about a quarter of the reduction in full time work by men in their early sixties but cannot explain the reduction by those age 65

uncertainty inequalities in health and the demand for health abstract as it has become increasingly recognized that inequalities in health stem more from inequalities in wealth rather than from inequalities in access to medical care economists have begun to suggest that michael grossman s model of the demand for health may be a useful analytical framework for investigating the issue ironically the more popular of grossman s two sub models the pure investment model provides little by way of insights into the relationship between inequalities in wealth and inequalities in health in common with other pure investment models of human capital formation grossman s model predicts that an individual s health investment decisions at each stage in the lifecycle will be independent of his initial wealth this paper shows that if uncertainty is introduced into the model this result no longer holds it also shows that if individuals display decreasing absolute risk aversion wealthier individuals will invest more in health capital than individuals who start life with relatively small stocks of financial capital

a structural retirement model the life cycle model analyzed here constrains most work on the main job to be full time partial retirement entails a wage reduction and frequently a job change maximum likelihood estimates of utility function parameters are designed to incorporate information on the age of leaving full time work and the age of full retirement the model closely tracks retirement behavior including peaks in retirement activity at 62 and 65 the paper explores the relation of these peaks to nonlinearities in the budget constraint created by various retirement programs policy analyses based on this and on earlier models with simpler structures are compared the retirement choice is one of the more prominent manifestations of life cycle behavior the decision is the result of an interplay between an individual s preferences and a set of incentives which change in complicated ways as the individual progresses through his or her late 50 s and 60 s the purpose of this study is to formulate and estimate a structural model which incorporates in a fundamental way this interplay between lifetime preferences and incentives and to illustrate how such a model may be used to investigate retirement behavior a structural model of this type is essential for analyzing potential policy changes which can be expected to affect incentives in varying ways over a number of years in the life cycle the current study incorporates two structural features which have frequently been omitted from previous studies first the model requires that an individual who wishes to reduce work effort below full time must accept a reduced hourly wage rate in order to do so this reflects empirical evidence from micro data sets which indicates that around one third of older individuals engage in part time work at one time or another and that regardless of whether or not these older workers change jobs to obtain part time work they usually take wage cuts as compared to their previous full time work 2 the fact that an individual is willing to accept a lower wage rate in return for the opportunity to work fewer than full time hours contains important information about the preferences of the

how social security and medicare affect retirement behavior in a world of incomplete markets this paper provides an empirical analysis of how the u s social security and medicare insurance system affect the labor supply of older males in the presence of incomplete markets for loans annuities and health insurance we estimate a detailed dynamic programming dp model of the joint labor supply and social security acceptance decision focusing on a sample of males in the low to middle income brackets whose only pension is social security the dp model delivers a rich set of predictions about the dynamics of retirement behavior and comparisons of actual vs predicted behavior show that the dp model is able to account for wide variety of phenomena observed in the data including the pronounced peaks in the distribution of retirement ages at 62 and 65 the ages of early and normal eligibility for social security benefits respectively we identify a significant fraction of health insurance constrained individuals who have no form of retiree health insurance other than medicare and who can only obtain fairly priced private health insurance via their employer s group health plan the combination of significant individual risk aversion and a long tailed pareto distribution of health care expenditures implies that there is a significant security value for these individuals to remain employed until they are eligible for medicare coverage at age 65 overall our model suggests that a number of heretofore puzzling aspects of retirement behavior can be viewed as artifacts of particular details of the social security rules whose incentive effects are especially strong for lower income individuals and those who do not have access to fairly priced loans annuities and health insurance

population aging health care and fiscal policy reform the challenges for japan we construct a transition analysis based on a general equilibrium life cycle model to investigate the effects of aging and we evaluate various policy alternatives designed to lessen the negative influence of aging in particular we analyze reforms of insurance benefits and tax financing tools that were recently the focus of a great amount of attention and debate in japan because of the tense financial situation there we show that although the potential reforms improve the welfare of future generations the political implementation of such reforms is difficult because of the large welfare costs for the current population our analysis suggests that a gradual reform with an intergenerational redistribution will be more politically implementable than an immediate reform

aging and health financing in the u s a general equilibrium analysis abstract we quantify the effects of population aging on the u s healthcare system our analysis is based on a stochastic general equilibrium overlapping generations model of endogenous health accumulation calibrated to match pre 2010 u s data we find that population aging not only leads to large increases in medical spending but also a large shift in the relative size of private vs public insurance without the affordable care act aca aging by itself leads to a 40 increase in health expenditures by 2060 and a 9 6 increase in gdp which is mainly driven by the increase of the fraction of older higher risk individuals in the economy as well as behavioral responses to aging and the subsequent expansion of the healthcare sector aging increases the premium in group based health insurance ghi markets and enrollment in ghi decreases while the individual based health insurance ihi market medicaid and medicare expand significantly the size of medicare will almost double by 2060 as the elderly dependency ratio increases additional funds equivalent to roughly 2 7 of gdp are required to finance medicare and medicaid the introduction of the aca increases the fraction of insured workers to almost 100 by 2060 compared to 82 without the aca this increase is driven by the stabilization of ghi markets and the further expansions of medicaid and the ihi market the aca mitigates the increase of healthcare costs by reducing the number of the uninsured who pay the highest market price for healthcare services overall the aca adds to the fiscal cost of population aging mainly via the medicaid expansion our findings demonstrate the importance of accounting for behavioral responses structural changes in the healthcare sector and general equilibrium adjustments when assessing the economy wide effects of aging

consumption and investment demand when health evolves stochastically abstract the health capital model of grossman 1972 is extended to account for uncertainty in the rate at which a stock of health depreciates two general versions of the model are contemplated one with a fully functioning financial market and the other in its absence the comparative dynamics of the feedback form of the consumption and health investment demand functions are studied in these general settings where it is shown that the key to deriving refutable results is to determine how a parameter or state variable affects the expected lifetime marginal utilities of health and wealth to add further reach to the results a simplified stochastic control problem is explicitly solved yielding estimable structural feedback demand functions

is there a retirement savings puzzle in this paper we ask whether households are saving enough for their retirement we use data on income expenditure and expenditure components to analyse patterns of behaviour at and around the time of retirement for successive date of birth cohorts we compare periods of unemployment to periods of retirement and separate expenditures into categories reflecting work related expenditures basic necessities and other goods we find that income typically falls by more at unemployment than retirement but the reverse is true for expenditure we observe falls in expenditure at retirement for all expenditure categories using a stochastic life cycle model including mortality rates we assess the anticipated impact of retirement on consumption against that of unemployment the inter relationship between goods and leisure explains a large part of the persistent fall in expenditure at retirement we argue that the only way in which the life cycle hypothesis could be reconciled with the remaining unanticipated dip in consumption would be with the systematic arrival of unexpected adverse information at the time of retirement