a machine learning approach to identifying different types of uncertainty abstract we implement natural language processing techniques to extract uncertainty measures from federal reserve beige books between 1970 and 2018 business and economic related uncertainty is associated with future weakness in output higher unemployment and elevated term premia on the other hand political and government uncertainty while high during recent times has no statistically significant impact on the economy

transmission network reinforcement versus facts an economic assessment while a significant amount of work has been and continues to be devoted to the description and analysis of the technical performance of flexible ac transmission systems facts very little attention has been paid to the economics of these devices the most frequently stated economic benefit of facts devices is that they enable postponement of network reinforcement this paper describes a linear programming approach for computing the maximum savings in operating costs that could be secured from installing ultimate 100 facts this gives the volume of the market potentially available for facts as the main aim of this paper is to assess the competitiveness of facts against network reinforcement only facts devices used for active power control are modelled the volume of the market for facts defined as the difference between the gross benefit of full network flexibility and the net benefit of network reinforcement is determined for a wide range of line reinforcement costs it is shown that economics of facts are system specific and depend strongly on the cost of reinforcement it is further concluded that at values of network reinforcement costs presently used in practice facts devices may find it difficult to compete favourably with network reinforcement the model employed in this evaluation takes account of inter temporal load variations as well as network security constraints in addition to the usual generator output and transmission thermal limits

on monoculture and the structure of crop rotations an issue when seeking to identify rotation choice is persistence in yield enhancement and input saving carry over effects focusing on carry over length and the monoculture decision we use quasi convexity of choice functions to develop price independent and price dependent principles concerning rotation structure iowa corn soybean rotation data suggest corn has one year memory for corn soybeans in the prior year is yield increasing 16 5 bu ac and nitrogen saving 51 lb ac the hypothesis that soybean has two year memory cannot be rejected corn in the prior year two years increases yield by 7 bu ac 11 6 bu ac we simulate to find price and practice subsidy levels that support different rotations

overinvestment and macroeconomic uncertainty evidence from renewable and non renewable resource firms abstract investment is an inherent component of business activities however what if firms invest more than they should this study examines this phenomenon which is dubbed as overinvestment among resource firms as induced by the business cycle and macroeconomic uncertainties the analysis is conducted using unbalanced panel data drawn from 584 resource companies across 32 countries covering 1986 to 2017 in four resource sectors 1 alternative energy 2 forestry and paper 3 mining and 4 oil and gas producers the results indicate that the forestry and paper sector overinvests relative to the standard investment level predicted by the investment function regardless of the sample period while the alternative energy sector tends to underinvest also many emerging economies including brazil china india indonesia russia and south korea are found to have overinvested over the last three decades or so in addition the results suggest that commodity price inflation plays a more important role in inducing firms overinvestment than commodity price uncertainty it is also found that the home country s business cycle significantly affects overinvestment with the sign alternating from negative to positive after the global financial crisis furthermore the finding also shows no significant relationship between global geopolitical risk and overinvestment but a significantly positive relationship is found between global economic and country level governance policy uncertainties and overinvestment lastly the results suggest that the effect of overinvestment on firm performance after three years is positive especially for firms in the mining sector

the spillover of macroeconomic uncertainty between the u s and china abstract we investigate the spillover of macroeconomic uncertainty between the u s and china since 2002 following jurado et al 2015 we construct a monthly aggregate macroeconomic uncertainty index for china from 224 economic variables the structural vector autoregression model suggests a unidirectional spillover of macroeconomic uncertainty from the u s to china both u s and chinese uncertainty have negative effects on china s real economy but the impact of u s uncertainty is greater

is the investment uncertainty relationship nonlinear an empirical analysis for the netherlands we examine the investment uncertainty relationship for a panel of dutch non financial firms the system generalized method of moments gmm estimates suggest that the effect of uncertainty on investment is nonlinear for low levels of uncertainty an increase in uncertainty has a positive effect on investment while for high levels of uncertainty an increase in uncertainty lowers investment this result is in line with a number of theoretical studies but has never been documented empirically

the effects of economic policy uncertainty on china s economy evidence from time varying parameter favar this article explores the effects of china s economic policy uncertainty epu on its fiscal policy monetary policy and a wide range of macro economic variables using a time varying parameter fava

persistence of economic uncertainty a comprehensive analysis one of the most heavily researched and cited issue in applied economics is the relationship of uncertainty indices with the financial and macroeconomic variables while the statistical features of

market based transmission expansion planning restructuring and deregulation has exposed transmission planner to new objectives and uncertainties therefore new criteria and approaches are needed for transmission planning in deregulated environments a new market based approach for transmission planning in deregulated environments is presented in this paper the main contribution of this research is i introducing a new probabilistic tool named probabilistic locational marginal prices for computing the probability density functions of nodal prices ii defining new market based criteria for transmission expansion planning in deregulated environments and iii presenting a new approach for transmission expansion planning in deregulated environments using the above tool and criteria the advantages of this approach are i it encourages and facilitates competition among all participants ii it provides nondiscriminatory access to cheap generation for all consumers iii it considers all random and nonrandom power system uncertainties and selects the final plan after risk assessment of all solutions and iv it is value based and considers investment cost operation cost congestion cost load curtailment cost and cost caused by system unreliability the presented approach is applied to ieee 30 bus test system

network planning in unbundled power systems in this paper a new approach for network planning in unbundled power systems is presented the approach takes into account the desires of demand customers power producers system operator network owner s and regulator in network planning competition reliability flexibility of operation transmission expansion cost and environmental impacts are used as planning criteria in order to consider the importance degrees of stakeholders and planning criteria in network planning first importance degrees of stakeholders and planning criteria are determined by a presented new method then importance degrees of stakeholders and planning criteria are aggregated with appropriateness degrees of expansion plans to compute a fuzzy index for measuring the goodness of expansion plans the final plan is selected using the presented fuzzy risk assessment method the approach is applied to an eight bus test system

commodity price changes and the predictability of economic policy uncertainty in this study we forecast economic policy uncertainty epu using input on 23 commodity price changes we reveal the significant predictability of epu using three forecast combinations this indicates that commodity price changes can be taken as a leading indicator of epu

a conceptual framework of adoption of an agricultural innovation abstract in this paper we present a conceptual framework of individual farmers decisions on adoption of a new innovation using the example of a new crop species this framework overcomes the shortcomings of a number of previous studies it represents the adoption of an innovation as a dynamic decision problem spanning at least several years the model allows for generation of potentially valuable information from trialing the innovation the value of such trials is due to development of skills e g in agronomic management of a crop as well as reduction in uncertainty about the innovation s long term profitability the framework also includes the farmer s personal perceptions managerial abilities and risk preferences in order to properly represent the adoption decision process the influences of socio demographic factors within the framework are discussed

is the relationship between gold and the u s dollar always negative the role of macroeconomic uncertainty abstractthe main work of this article is to access the role of macroeconomic uncertainty in effecting the correlation between gold and the dollar the empirical analysis is divided into two parts firstly we examine the impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on short and long correlation between gold and the dollar secondly we analyse the explanatory power of economic uncertainty for the abnormal market relation between gold and the dollar with a threshold model in particular we investigate impacts of economic uncertainty sourced from different economies the empirical results indicate that economic uncertainty generates direct impacts on the correlation between gold and the dollar moreover our results emphasize that uncertainty sourced from different economies have different impacts on the dynamics between gold and the dollar this article also presents the relative contribution of gold and the dollar shocks to the likelihood of being in the high uncertainty regime these results have implications fo

dynamic connectedness of uncertainty across developed economies a time varying approach abstract economic uncertainty has attracted a significant part of the modern research in economics proving to be a significant factor for every economy in this study we focus on the transmission channel of uncertainty between developed economies examining potential spillover effects between the u s the e u the u k japan and canada within a time varying framework our empirical results indicate of a significant spillover of uncertainty from the e u to the u s

modelling embedded risk in peasant agriculture methodological insights from northern malawi abstract using a linear programming model of farming systems in northern malawi the conditions under which peasant farm household models may need to allow for embedded risk are investigated tactical sequential responses to uncertainty are found to be more important to labour scarce households with limited access to capital and to credit markets compared with semi sequential programming discrete stochastic programming dsp provided more efficient solutions for problems involving embedded risk there may be intuitive advantages in presenting results from dsp models in terms of a semi sequential strategy

stochastic utility efficient programming of organic dairy farms opportunities to make sequential decisions and adjust activities as a season progresses and more information becomes available characterise the farm management process in this paper we present a discrete stochastic two stage utility efficient programming model of organic dairy farms which includes risk aversion in the decision maker s objective function as well as both embedded risk stochastic programming with recourse and non embedded risk stochastic programming without recourse historical farm accountancy data and subjective judgements were combined to assess the nature of the uncertainty that affects the possible consequences of the decisions the programming model was used within a stochastic dominance framework to examine optimal strategies in organic dairy systems in norway

use of mip for planning temporary immigrant farm labor force abstract growers of many fruit and vegetable crops in the us are heavily reliant on hand labor to perform all of the necessary operations throughout the growing season when the current supply of domestic hand labor is insufficient growers can employ nonimmigrant foreign workers through the h 2a visa program to perform any additional agricultural tasks a common criticism of the program is that it is an onerous process that places the burden of proof on growers and requires them to demonstrate that there is a shortage of domestic workers this requires growers to start their employment decision making months before the growing season starts using limited knowledge about the upcoming season since no labor focused decision making tools exists for growers a mixed integer programming model is presented in this article which develops tactical level planting harvesting and labor acquisition schedules for use by growers to determine the appropriate number of h 2a workers needed this formulation is applied to an average farm in the yuma arizona region as a case study in addition the study is extended to show how the model can be employed as a regulatory tool to determine the economic impact from modifying the h 2a application policy this analysis in the yuma region demonstrated that increasing the h 2a program provides a positive economic incentive offset by moderate domestic job displacement

international economic policy uncertainty and stock prices revisited multiple and partial wavelet approach abstract this paper introduces a new dimension to the relationship between economic policy uncertainty epu and stock prices sp by extending the contributions of ko and lee 2015 by using multiple and partial wavelet coherence techniques the vulnerability of sp due to combined and isolated impact of international us epu and domestic policy uncertainty depu is investigated the main findings are a the combined effect of depu and us epu is more significant for developed market s sp b the emerging market s sp are more sensitive to depu and c amongst developed markets japan and european countries are more sensitive to us epu than depu

stochastic rangeland use under capital constraints the stocking density on kazakhstan s extensive rangelands is well below traditional levels to analyze dynamic flock performance we develop a stochastic dynamic programming model for livestock systems with stochastic forage production the model contains continuous five state and 12 control variables allowing improved characterization of the biophysical relationships and economic tradeoffs inherent in such systems most kazakhstan herders have restricted access to capital the model indicates that the cost of capital strongly affects flock size and productivity we conclude that capital constraints are important to explaining the current low stocking density improving capital markets in rural areas warrants policy attention

the international transmission of volatility shocks an empirical analysis this paper proposes an empirical model which can be used to estimate the international transmission of volatility shocks using this model we estimate that a one standard deviation increase in the volatility of the shock to us real gdp leads to a decline in uk gdp of 1 relative to trend and a 0 7 increase in uk cpi relative to trend at the two year horizon using a nonlinear open economy dsge model we find that these empirical estimates are consistent with the response to a perturbation to the volatility of foreign supply type shocks while an increase in the volatility of demand shocks has a negligible impact

economic policy uncertainty shocks and stock bond correlations evidence from the us market abstract this paper examines the effects of economic policy uncertainty shocks on stock bond correlations for the us market we devise a general framework which distinguishes a positive shock from a negative one and nests either as its special case the results show that innovations in the policy uncertainty index impact negatively and asymmetrically on the subsequent stock bond correlations which are characterized by a structural break and positive type asymmetry

investment and the dynamic cost of income uncertainty the case of diminishing expectations in agriculture this paper studies optimal investment and the dynamic cost of income uncertainty applying a stochastic programming approach the motivation is given by a case study in finnish agriculture investment decision is modelled as a markov decision process extended to account for risk a numerical framework for studying the dynamic uncertainty cost is presented modifying the classical expected value of perfect information to a dynamic setting the uncertainty cost depends on the volatility of income e g with stationary income the dynamic uncertainty cost corresponds to a dynamic option value of postponing investment the numerical investment model also yields the optimal investment behavior of a representative farm the model can be applied e g in planning investment subsidies for maintaining target investments in the case study the investment decision is sensitive to risk

cross country determinants of economic policy uncertainty spillovers this study explores the determinants of cross country economic policy uncertainty epu spillovers we find that bilateral factors such as trade and common language play a highly significant role i

long memory economic policy uncertainty and forecasting us inflation a bayesian varfima approach abstractwe compare inflation forecasts of a vector autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average varfima model against standard forecasting models u s inflation forecasts improve when controlling for persistence and economic policy uncertainty epu importantly the varfima model comprising of inflation and epu outperforms commonly used inflation forecast models

value based transmission expansion planning of hydrothermal systems under uncertainty transmission planning studies in hydrothermal systems deal with complex issues two include 1 the need for a robust grid that can accommodate a large number of economic dispatch patterns caused by differing hydrological conditions in the river basins and 2 the high cost of grid reinforcements due to the large distance from hydro plants to load centers and the required n l security criterion it is thus necessary to consider the tradeoff between supply reliability and reinforcement cost the resulting planning problem is formulated as a large scale mixed integer nonlinear optimization model the objective function is to minimize the sum of investment costs and expected load shedding costs the constraints include linearized power flow equations limits on circuit flows for all combinations of economic dispatch points which capture hydrological variation and circuit contingencies which capture supply reliability this paper describes a new solution scheme for this problem that is based on two techniques 1 the extension of a binary disjunctive technique which transforms the integer nonlinear problem into a linear one and 2 screening strategies which allow a judicious choice of contingencies and candidate circuits planning studies for brazil and bolivia are presented and discussed

handling uncertainty in agricultural supply chain management a state of the art given the evolution in the agricultural sector and the new challenges it faces managing agricultural supply chains efficiently has become an attractive topic for researchers and practitioners against this background the integration of uncertain aspects has continuously gained importance for managerial decision making since it can lead to an increase in efficiency responsiveness business integration and ultimately in market competitiveness in order to capture appropriately the uncertain conjuncture of most agricultural real life applications an increasing amount of research effort is especially dedicated to treating uncertainty in particular quantitative modeling approaches have found extensive use in agricultural supply chain management this paper provides an overview of the latest advances and developments in the application of operations research methodologies to handling uncertainty occurring in the agricultural supply chain management problems it seeks to i offer a representative overview of the predominant research topics ii highlight the most pertinent and widely used frameworks and iii discuss the emergence of new operations research advances in the agricultural sector the broad spectrum of reviewed contributions is classified and presented with respect to three most relevant discerned features uncertainty modeling types programming approaches and functional application areas ultimately main review findings are pointed out and future research directions which emerge are suggested

unconventional monetary policy and the credit channel in the euro area abstract we disentangle credit supply and demand and we then embed this information into a bayesian threshold var model to investigate the importance of the demand channel and the broad credit channel in the transmission of unconventional monetary policy on the macroeconomy during financial stress periods we find that during such periods ump shocks boost aggregate demand for loans increase agents net worth and revitalize credit to firms and households in addition counterfactual analysis suggests that non standard policy measures aiming at stimulating loan demand and relaxing banks balance sheet constraints would provide a significant support to economic activity prices and the financial sector

methodological aspects of a mathematical programming model to evaluate soil tillage technologies in a risky environment abstract in this work we develop a methodology for the economic evaluation of soil tillage technologies in a risky environment and to capture the influence of farmer behaviour on his technology choice the model has short term activities that change with the type of year and long term activities in which sets of traction investment activities are included although these activities do not change with the type of year they lead to different availability of resources for each type of year since the same tractor has different available fieldwork days under different weather conditions we prove that the model is sensitive to the greater income variability resulting from the use of alternative technologies and to the balance between income and risk accounting for the probability of occurrence of each state of nature and giving an investment solution that considers the best production plan for each type of year

a dynamic stochastic programming model of crop rotation choice to test the adoption of long rotation under price and production risks this article investigates the role played by both production and market risks on cash crop farmers decision to adopt long rotations considered as innovative cropping systems we build a multi period recursive farm model with discrete stochastic programming the model arbitrates each year between conventional and innovative longer rotations yearly farming operations are declined according to a decision tree so that production risk is an intra year risk market risk is considered as an inter year risk influencing crop successions simulations are performed on a specialized french cash crop farm they show that when the long rotation is subsidized by an area premium farmers are encouraged to remain in longer rotations they also show that a high level of risk aversion tends to slow down the conversion towards longer rotations

should the euro area be run as a closed economy the european economic and monetary union emu has created a new economic area larger and closer with respect to the rest of the world area specifi cs hocks are thus more important in emu than country specific shocks used to be in the previous states e g in germany it is thus not surprising that the models used to determine optimal monetary policy in the euro area for instance smets and wouters 2004 assume that this works essentially as a closed economy hit by domestic shocks i e the same assumption made in standard models of u s monetary policy see e g christiano et al 1999 where all shocks are domestic with the only possible exception of energy price shocks this paper studies monetary policy in the euro area looking at the variable most directly related to current and expected monetary policy the yield on long term government bonds we explore how the behaviour of european long term rates has been affected by emu and whether the response of long term rates to monetary policy has got any closer to that consistent with a closed economy we find that the level of long term rates in europe is almost entirely explained by u s shocks and by the systematic response of u s and european variables to these shocks the systematic component of european monetary policy responds to u s variables more than it does to local variables this was true for the bundesbank before emu and remains true for the ecb since the start of emu we also find that unpredictable fluctuations in long term rates are driven by shocks to term premia not to monetary policy this means that the ecb can affect long rates only through the systematic component of its monetary policy which as we have seen mostly responds to u s variables monetary policy shocks induced by the ecb have virtually no effect on long rates claiming that monetary policy in the euro area can be determined as if the region were a closed economy is thus not consistent with the empirical evidence on

economic policy uncertainty and risk spillovers in the eurozone this paper focuses on the impact of economic policy uncertainty on risk spillovers within the eurozone and contributes to these two growing literatures to this end we adapt the two step procedure developed by adrian and brunnermeier forthcoming in the framework of financial systemic risk to the sovereign bond market accordingly we attempt i to measure the extent to which distress affecting one given country s sovereign spreads can affect the eurozone s bond market as a whole and then ii to identify the determinants of risk spillovers by estimating a panel data model with macroeconomic state variables and economic policy uncertainty epu indices introduced by baker et al 2013 as regressors epu indices considered concern the four largest eurozone countries i e germany france italy and spain as well as the united states the model is estimated with quarterly data for ten countries representing the bulk of debt issuances within the eurozone over a period ranging from q4 2008 to q2 2013 which is characterized by historically high dispersion of sovereign bond spreads either across time or across countries our results support the idea that economic policy uncertainty in the core economies of the eurozone i e germany and france as well as in the largest periphery countries i e italy and spain can create an environment likely to exacerbate the transmission of risk arising from abnormal developments of individual countries sovereign spreads to the eurozone bond market as a whole in this respect our results plead for larger effort of eurozone leaders to reduce the uncertainty surrounding their economic policy in periods of crisis not only to avoid adverse effects on their own economies but also to reduce the risk of a destabilization of the eurozone sovereign bond market as a whole

economic policy uncertainty in the us does it matter for the euro area abstract we investigate the effects of a us economic policy uncertainty shock on some euro area macroeconomic aggregates via structural vars we model the indicators of economic policy uncertainty recently developed by baker et al 2013 jointly with the aggregate price indexes and alternative indicators of the business cycle for the two above indicated economic areas according to our svars a one standard deviation shock to us economic policy uncertainty leads to a statistically significant fall in the european industrial production and prices of 0 12 and 0 06 respectively the contribution of the us uncertainty shock on the european aggregates is shown to be quantitatively larger than the one exerted by an euro area specific uncertainty shock

tax uncertainty and business activity abstract we investigate the extent to which uncertainties about tax policies affect business activities we develop a statewide tax uncertainty measure tu measure and show that it captures state corporate tax uncertainty by comparing adjacent counties across state borders we show that increasing tax uncertainty by one standard deviation a 30 increase in the tu measure leads to a 0 17 point per year decrease in the growth rate of establishments over two years the result holds after conducting a variety of robustness checks and is not likely to be driven by general state policy uncertainties

dynamic resource management intertemporal substitution and risk aversion we consider resource management with recursive preferences these generalize expected utility while eliminating some well known difficulties monotonicity and convergence properties of optimal decision rules are established using lattice programming methods empirical applications are rangeland and groundwater management decreasing the intertemporal elasticity of substitution implies greater lower resource usage with limited abundant stocks this moderates stock evolution and stabilizes consumption increasing risk aversion implies the same or reduced usage over the state space intertemporal substitution has a substantial effect on the optimal decision rule and a moderate effect on the limiting distribution while risk aversion has a very small effect

measuring financial asset return and volatility spillovers with application to global equity markets we provide a simple and intuitive measure of interdependence of asset returns and or volatilities in particular we formulate and examine precise and separate measures of return spillovers and volatility spillovers our framework facilitates study of both non crisis and crisis episodes including trends and bursts in spillovers and both turn out to be empirically important in particular in an analysis of sixteen global equity markets from the early 1990s to the present we find striking evidence of divergent behavior in the dynamics of return spillovers vs volatility spillovers return spillovers display a gently increasing trend but no bursts whereas volatility spillovers display no trend but clear bursts

macroeconomic policy uncertainty shocks on the chinese economy a gvar analysis abstractthis article studies the spillovers of economic policy uncertainty epu from developed economies to china in terms of the source extent and persistence by estimating a global vector autoregressive gvar model with both financial and trade variables acting as the transmission channels our findings confirm the existence of international transmissions of policy uncertainty while the patterns differ markedly the us epu appears to be the most significant cause of the fall of export industrial production equity price and exchange rate meanwhile the eu epu is also to be blamed for the depreciation of rmb in contrast to industrial production which shows the largest negative impact chinese inflation increases to a relatively smaller extent with the epu shocks ranking as the us japanese and the eu regardless of the minor impact on a long term interest rate the short term interest rate in china reacts positively to the european and us epu shocks despite the independent national monetary poli

accounting for heterogeneity in multicrop micro econometric models implications for variable input demand modeling this article aims to show that if the farm sample under consideration is characterized by significant heterogeneity recovering output specific input uses or modeling farm level input uses may be more complicated than previously recognized the article theoretically investigates the problems implied by farm heterogeneity in input allocation equations and multicrop econometric models proposes an empirically tractable solution for overcoming these problems and assesses the empirical relevance of the theoretically identified problems the results demonstrate that heterogeneity matters but that the revealed heterogeneity bias has a limited impact on the empirical results copyright 2012 oxford university press

uncertainty shocks and unemployment dynamics in u s recessions abstract what are the effects of uncertainty shocks on unemployment dynamics we answer this question by estimating non linear smooth transition vars with post wwii u s data the relevance of uncertainty shocks is found to be much larger than that predicted by standard linear vars in terms of i magnitude of the reaction of the unemployment rate to such shocks and ii contribution to the variance of the prediction errors of unemployment at business cycle frequencies the ability of different classes of dsge models to replicate our results is discussed

on the transmission mechanism of country specific and international economic uncertainty spillovers evidence from a tvp var connectedness decomposition approach abstract we investigate the internal and external categorical economic policy uncertainty epu spillovers between the us and japan using a novel extension of the tvp var connectedness approach of antonakakis and gabauer 2017 the decomposition of our approach gives us insights about the dynamics with and without international spillovers which has essential policy implications our results suggest that monetary policy uncertainty is the main driver followed by uncertainties associated with fiscal currency market and trade policies furthermore we find that the fukushima daiichi accident can be interpreted as a negative trade shock that spread internationally

us immigration policies and dynamics of cross border workforce in agriculture given the contentious debate on immigration this study develops a dynamic model to analyse the effects of stricter border and domestic enforcement and streamlining the guest worker programme on cross border migration from mexico employment and production in us labour intensive and mexican agriculture and the us and mexican wage rates the model incorporates labour leisure decisions of mexican workers and labour market dynamics and linkages the findings show stricter border and domestic controls exacerbate the labour shortage problems and reduce the us agricultural production streamlining the guest worker programme provides a steady supply of farm workers and has negligible impact on the us wage

measuring cross category spillovers of policy specific uncertainty in china abstract this paper examine cross category spillovers of policy specific uncertainty in china we find that monetary policy and exchange rate policy are net givers while fiscal policy and trade policy are net receivers monetary policy plays the dominant role spillovers are countercyclical

an integer programming dynamic farm household model to evaluate the impact of agricultural policy reforms on farm investment behaviour abstract we develop a multi objective farm household dynamic integer programming model to simulate investment behaviour in different policy and price scenarios with a particular focus on the decoupling of the common agricultural policy cap the model takes into account the characteristics of individual assets including ageing and fixity through the explicit consideration of transaction costs a case study application in the context of arable farming in northern italy is provided as an example the results emphasise different patterns of reaction of different farm household types over time as an effect of the varying opportunity costs of resources and initial asset endowments overall this application highlights the potentialities and limits of the methodology in particular the approach proved to be effective in providing a variety of results depending on the individual features of each farm household such as the differences between a a no reaction attitude b an adaptation of farm activity and assets and c a radical reaction pattern guided by high income alternatives to farming this highlights the potential of this tool as a generator of ideas and working hypotheses we argue that in view of the further developments of the cap the use of instruments able to account for multiple objectives dynamics and investment choices will become even more relevant in the analysis of eu agricultural policy

international economic policy uncertainty and stock prices wavelet approach this paper examines the link between economic policy uncertainty and stock price in both a time and frequency domain wavelet analysis reveals that the relationship is generally negative but changes over time exhibiting low to high frequency cycles moreover the timing of frequency changes overlaps when us policy uncertainty comoves with other countries policy uncertainty

multi stage flexible expansion co planning under uncertainties in a combined electricity and gas market natural gas is an important fuel source in the power industry electricity and natural gas are both energy that can be directly consumed to improve the overall efficiency of the energy infrastructure it is imperative that the expansion of gas power plants electricity transmission lines and gas pipelines can be co planned the co planning process is modeled as a mixed integer nonlinear programming problem to handle conflicting objectives simultaneously we propose a novel model to identify the optimal co expansion plan in terms of social welfare to evaluate the robustness of plans under different scenarios the flexibility criterion is used to identify each plan s adaptation cost to uncertainties such as demand growth fuel cost and financial constraints etc we developed a systematic and comprehensive planning model to understand develop and optimize energy grids in order to reach higher social welfare and is therefore of great importance in terms of supporting and guiding investment decisions for the power and gas industry meanwhile we use the sequential importance sampling sis to perform scenario reduction for achieving a higher computational efficiency a comprehensive case study on the integrated ieee 14 bus and a test gas system is conducted to validate our approach

assessing international commonality in macroeconomic uncertainty and its effects this paper uses a large vector autoregression var to measure international macroeconomic uncertainty and its effects on major economies using two datasets one with gdp growth rates for 19 industrialized countries and the other with a larger set of macroeconomic indicators for the u s euro area and u k using basic factor model diagnostics we first provide evidence of significant commonality in international macroeconomic volatility with one common factor accounting for strong comovement across economies and variables we then turn to measuring uncertainty and its effects with a large var in which the error volatilities evolve over time according to a factor structure the volatility of each variable in the system reflects time varying common global components and idiosyncratic components in this model global uncertainty is allowed to contemporaneously affect the macroeconomies of the included nations both the levels and volatilities of the included variables in this setup uncertainty and its effects are estimated in a single step within the same model our estimates yield new measures of international macroeconomic uncertainty and indicate that uncertainty shocks surprise increases lower gdp and many of its components adversely affect labor market conditions lower stock prices and in some economies lead to an easing of monetary policy

is there a role for uncertainty in forecasting output growth in oecd countries evidence from a time varying parameter panel vector autoregressive model this paper uses a time varying parameter panel vector autoregressive tvp pvar model to analyze the role played by domestic and us news based measures of uncertainty in forecasting the growth of industrial production of 12 organisation for economic co operation and development oecd countries based on a monthly out of sample period of 2009 06 to 2017 05 given an in sample of 2003 03 to 2009 05 there are only 46 of cases where domestic uncertainty can improve the forecast of output growth relative to a baseline monetary tvp pvar model which includes inflation interest rate and nominal exchange rate growth besides output growth moreover including us uncertainty does not necessarily improve the forecasting performance of output growth from the tvp pvar model which includes only the domestic uncertainty along with the baseline variables so in general while uncertainty is important in predicting the future path of output growth in the 12 advanced economies considered a forecaster can do better in majority of the instances by just considering the information from standard macroeconomic variables

international spillovers of policy uncertainty using the baker et al 2013 index of policy uncertainty for six developed countries this paper estimates spillovers of policy uncertainty we find that spillovers account for slightly more than one fourth of the dynamics of policy uncertainty in these countries with this share rising to one half during the financial crisis the us and uk are responsible for a large fraction of the spillovers since the financial crisis while the remaining countries are all net receivers of policy uncertainty shocks during and after this period

congestion driven transmission planning considering the impact of generator expansion this paper presents a multi year transmission expansion planning tep model which considers the transmission congestion and the impact of generation investment cost in the planning horizon the benders decomposition approach is utilized which decomposes tep into a master problem and two subproblems representing security and optimal operation the operation cost due to congestion occ is considered in the proposed model given that the congestion level is a proper criterion for measuring the degree of competitiveness in an electricity market the model evaluates sensitivity of the optimal tep to congestion level planning horizon and financial constraints regulators can utilize the proposed results to provide long term tep to market players and to develop incentive mechanisms to trigger generation investments the proposed approach is applied to a hypothetical system and turkish power system

on international uncertainty links bart based empirical evidence for canada we use the indexes of economic policy uncertainty epu developed by baker et al 2015 for canada and seven china france germany japan russia united kingdom and united states other countries to study international uncertainty links by means of a bayesian additive regression trees bart algorithm using partial dependence plots relative importance measures and permutation tests we shed light on how epu in canada is linked to epu in seven other countries

transmission network planning under security and environmental constraints this paper explores the impact of co2 emission trading on capacity planning of electric power transmission systems two different models for annual emission costs are assumed the co2 emission price is modeled as a probability density function in the transmission network planning problem the monte carlo technique is deployed to simulate the co2 emission price volatility the transmission network planning problem is formulated as a mixed integer optimization whose objective is to minimize the sum of annual generator operating costs and annuitized transmission investment costs over different demand levels subject to n 1 network security constraints as well as operating limits on system components the overall problem is formulated within the framework of a linear dc optimal power flow incorporating binary decision variables to model the lumpy nature of transmission investment a linear model of losses is also proposed and included in the dc power flow model the proposed approach can be used to determine the most probable optimal transmission capacity the methodology is demonstrated through case studies simulated on the ieee 24 bus network