where do markets come from production markets have two sides producers are a fully connected clique transacting with buyers as a separate but aggregated clique each producer is a distinctive firm with a distinctive product each side continually monitors reactions of the other through the medium of a joint social construction the schedule of terms of trade each producer is guided in choice of volume by the tangible outcomes of other producers not by speculation on hypothetical reactions of buyers to its actions each producer acts purely on self interest based on observed actions of all others summarized through a feedback process the summary is the terms of trade schedule which reduces to constant price only in limiting cases the market emerges as a structure of roles with a differentiated niche for each firm explicit formulae both for firms and for market aggregates are obtained by comparative statics methods for one family of assumptions about cost structures and about buyers evaluations of differentiated products not just any set of firms can sustain terms of trade with any set of buyers there prove to be three main kinds of markets and three sorts of market failure within a parameter space that is specified in detail one sort of market paradox has a madison avenue flavor another is more conventional grind and a third crowded is a new form not included in any existing theory of markets current american industrial markets are drawn on for 20 illustrations of which three are presented in some detail inequality in firms market shares measured by gini coefficients is discussed

the information content of annual earnings releases a trading volume approach this paper reports the results of an empirical examination of the relations between the volume of securities traded the magnitude of surprises in annual earnings announcements and firm size although early trading volume studies e g beaver 1968 kiger 1972 and foster 1973 replicated basic information content studies with findings similar to those based on security prices we should not expect that security price and trading volume research will continue to yield identical results when more refined hypotheses are tested trading volume reflects investors activity by summing all market trades whereas security prices reflect an aggregation or averaging of investors beliefs as a result we will on occasion observe differences between price and volume reactions to earnings announcements as did morse 1981 this study extends the recent trend toward tests of more refined hypotheses by using a larger sample to examine the associations between unexpected earnings firm size and trading volume and testing whether such associations can be generalized across fiscal year end dates and stock exchange listing my results show a continuous positive relationship between trading

analysts forecasts as proxies for investor beliefs in empirical research abstract we analyze how analysts forecasts relate to investor beliefs and describe the implications of these relations for price and volume reactions to earnings surprises we show that dispersion among forecasts does not fully capture investor uncertainty we also show how the relations between market reactions and forecast properties differ under the alternative assumptions of exogenous and endogenous private information acquisition finally the analysis suggests refined tests for volume reactions at the time of an announcement our results indicate that the model is useful for understanding and interpreting empirical work and developing empirical tests of market reactions to announcements

the possibility of informationally efficient markets abstract a rational expectations equilibrium with positive demand for financial information does exist under fully revealing asset price contrary to a wide held conjecture whereas a continuum of investors is inconsistent with fully revealing equilibrium finitely many investors with average portfolios demand information in equilibrium if they can adjust portfolio size in an additive signal return model more information diminishes the expected excess return of a risky asset so that investors who only have a choice of portfolio composition or whose asset endowments strongly differ from the average portfolio are worse off under fully revealing price information market equilibria both with and without information acquisition are pareto efficient

energy conservation more effective with rebound policy this article sketches the problem of indirect energy use effects also known as rebound of energy conservation there is widespread support for energy conservation especially when it is voluntary as this seems a cheap way to realize environmental and energy climate goals however this overlooks the phenomenon of rebound the topic of energy rebound has mainly attracted attention from energy analysts but has been surprisingly neglected in environmental economics even though economists generally are concerned with indirect or economy wide impacts of technical change and policies this paper presents definitions and interpretations of energy and environmental rebound as well as four fundamental reasons for the existence of the rebound phenomenon it further offers the most complete list of rebound pathways or mechanisms available in the literature in addition it discusses empirical estimates of rebound and addresses the implications of uncertainties and difficulties in assessing rebound suggestions are offered for strategies and public policies to contain rebound it is advised that rebound evaluation is an essential part of environmental policy and project assessments as opposed to earlier studies this paper stresses the relevance of the distinction between energy conservation resulting from autonomous demand changes and from efficiency improvements in technology equipment in addition it argues that rebound is especially relevant for developing countries

the tortoise versus the hare progress and business viability differences between conventional and leisure based founders social science researchers have long pursued answers to the puzzle of why some people achieve certain milestones more quickly than others and whether rate of progress matters for long run outcomes this tortoise versus hare puzzle raises the question of whether speed is a valid indicator of viability in an undertaking are those with slower rates of progress any less off in terms of long run achievement when compared to their faster counterparts we investigate this tortoise and hare puzzle in the context of business formation an activity pursued by millions in the united states our analysis of a nationally representative survey of u s business founders revealed that leisure based founders were slower to make progress initially but after a certain time threshold their progress was no different than other conventional types of founders more importantly leisure based founders showed more favorable initial economic and non economic outcomes as these founders were more likely to consistently report early sales and profitability and were more committed to investing time into their ventures our study findings have both theoretical and practical implications for the evaluation of venture performance when the rate of progress is considered to be a leading indicator of new business viability

a class of monotone economies in which rational expectations equilibria exist but prices do not reveal all information abstract some economies having excess demands which depend monotonically on agents information signals are examined if there are no multiple market clearing prices then these economies have strict rational expectations equilibria in which equilibrium prices alone do not transmit all information

a theory of trading volume a theory of trading volume is developed based on assumptions that market agents frequently revise their demand prices and randomly encounter potential trading partners the model describes two distinct ways informational events affect trading volume one is consistent with conjectures made by empirical researchers that investor disagreement leads to increased trading but the observation of abnormal trading volume does not necessarily imply disagreement and volume can increase even if investors interpret the information identically if they also have had divergent prior expectations simulation tests support the model and are used to contrast the random pairing environment with costless market clearing volume is lower in the costly market and volume increases caused by an informational event persist after the event period this is consistent with existing empirical evidence and suggests that markets do not immediately clear all orders or that investors have demands to recontract

building synergies between climate change mitigation and energy poverty alleviation abstract even though energy poverty alleviation and climate change mitigation are inextricably linked policy goals they have remained as relatively disconnected fields of research inquiry and policy development acknowledging this gap this paper explores the mainstream academic and policy literatures to provide a taxonomy of interactions and identify synergies and trade offs between them the most important trade off identified is the potential increase in energy poverty levels as a result of strong climate change action if the internalisation of the external costs of carbon emissions is not offset by efficiency gains the most significant synergy was found in deep energy efficiency in buildings the paper argues that neither of the two problems deep reductions in ghg emissions by mid century and energy poverty eradication is likely to be solved fully on their own merit while joining the two policy goals may provide a very solid case for deep efficiency improvements thus the paper calls for a strong integration of these two policy goals plus other key related benefits like energy security or employment in order to provide sufficient policy motivation to mobilise a wide scale implementation of deep energy efficiency standards

rational expectations in microeconomic models an overview abstract this paper is an expository introduction to several topics of current research in the general equilibrium theory of rational expectations more specifically we discuss the existence of exact and approximate rational expectations equilibria the implementation of equilibria the behavior of learning and smoothing processes by which traders construct expectations from repeated observations of the market and the lagged use of the information revealed by prices in an intertemporal sequence of markets the purpose of this discussion is to introduce papers on these topics appearing in the journal of economic theory symposium on rational expectations in microeconomic models

market implication of predisc10sure information size and exchange effects differential market reactions to earnings announcements can inter alia be ascribed to the extent to which such announcements entail surprise i e unexpected information the greater the predisclosure information the less the surprise element in earnings announcements since there is no direct measure of predisclosure information the literature has utilized two different proxies i firm size the size effect atiase 1980 1985 and ii exchange listing the exchange effect grant 1980 atiase 1980 argues that private predisclosure information production and dissemination are an increasing function of firm size capitalization if so the amount of unexpected information conveyed to the market by actual earnings reports should be inversely related to firm size other things equal empirical evidence in atiase 1985 supports this hypothesis grant 1980 found that for otc firms the average price revaluation associated with annual earnings announcements is significantly higher in the report week relative to both nonannouncement

home bias in equity portfolios inflation hedging and international capital market equilibrium we test whether the home bias in equity portfolios is caused by investors trying to hedge inflation risk the empirical evidence is consistent with this motive only if investors have very high levels of risk tolerance and equity returns are negatively correlated with domestic inflation we then develop a model of international portfolio choice and equity market equilibrium that integrates inflation risk and deadweight costs using this model we estimate the levels of costs required to generate the observed home bias in portfolios consistent with different levels of risk aversion for a level of risk aversion consistent with standard estimates of the domestic equity market risk premium these costs are about a few percent per annum greater than observable costs such as withholding taxes thus the home bias cannot be explained by either inflation hedging or direct observable costs of international investment unless investors have very low levels of risk aversion article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

price inference in small markets this paper investigates the effects of market size on the ability of price to aggregate traders private information to account for heterogeneity in correlation of trader values a gaussian model of double auction is introduced that departs from the standard information structure based on a common fundamental shock the paper shows that markets are informationally efficient only if correlations of values coincide across all bidder pairs as a result with heterogeneously interdependent values price informativeness may not increase monotonically with market size as a necessary and sufficient condition for the monotonicity price informativeness increases with the number of traders if the implied reduction in the absolute value of an average correlation statistic of an information structure is sufficiently small

internal labor markets too many theories too few facts that firms employ internal labor markets in which wages and careers are partly shielded from the vagaries of external labor markets seems well accepted yet peter doeringer and michael piore s 1985 seminal work on internal labor markets has had a rather limited impact on the economics profession in contrast to textbooks on human resource management which have adopted their paradigm wholeheartedly labor economics texts tend to pay only cursory attention to internal labor markets the competitive model in which wages reflect an individual s marginal product remains the paradigm of choice there are many reasons for this lackluster reception including intellectual convenience a more acceptable excuse is that while doeringer and piore s study which was based on interviews with 75 companies identified several key regularities ports of entry career ladders etc that have come to shape our perception of internal labor markets the book never presented a theory to explain these findings with the advent of information economics and contract theory models of internal labor markets or at least selected features of these markets have begun to emerge the objective of these theories is to show that internal labor market outcomes can be construed as second best solutions to contracting problems under incomplete information for instance tournament theory edward lazear and sherwin rosen 1981 sees the attachment of wages to jobs as part of an efficient incentive scheme michael waldman 1984 explains the same phenomenon as an insurance arrangement against variations in individual productivity seniority rules in promotion and wagesetting can be understood as responses to problems of collusion or influence activities paul milgrom and john roberts 1988 the list could be extended at this point there is hardly any feature of internal labor markets that cannot be given some logical explanation using the right combination of uncertainty asymmetric information and opportunism doeringer and piore 1985 in the preface to the second printing of their book take exception with this line of theoretical research they believe that internal labor markets are inherently a social group phenomenon and that something fundamental is missed by pursuing individualistic models be that as it may we think there is another more serious problem with the direction that this research has taken too much of it relies on the old empirical stereotype the original study was done 25 years ago and focused almost exclusively on blue collar male unionized manufacturing workers one might rightly wonder how relevant these findings are in today s environment and whether they extend to white collar work as most discussions seem to assume before proceeding with the theory it is prudent to ask do we have the facts right in this paper we report on two recent case studies of individual firms that use personnel records to analyze wage and career paths of managerial workers lazear 1992 and baker et al 1994a b 1 person

the fall and rise of the petty bourgeoisie changing patterns of self employment in the postwar united states this article explores the historical trajectory of the self employed segment of the labor force in the united states particularly since 1940 self employment declined in the united states almost steadily from the 19th century to the early 1970s since then it has risen every year explaining this reversal in the historical fortunes of the petty bourgeoisie is the central task of this article we reach four basic conclusions first the reversal in the decline of the self employed is statistically significant and robust across a range of definitions of self employment rates second this reversal is not a simple countercyclical response to the increase in unemployment since the middle 1970s third part of the resurgence of self employment result from the expansion of various postindustrial services that tend to have higher levels of self employment within them within postindustrial sectors however there has not generally been any increase in self employment fourth a significant part of the expansio

rational expectations equilibrium an alternative approach we study a dynamic market process in which traders condition their beliefs about payoff relevant parameters on past endogenously generated market data and current exogenous data we say that a market process is informative if the beliefs of traders who receive only endogenously generated market data converge almost surely to the true parameter value our main result is that under standard regularity hypotheses the generic market process is informative we define an equilibrium as the limit points of the market process journal of economic literature classification numbers 02 1 026 c 1984 academic press inc

a trading approach to testing for predictability we propose a market timing test for conditional mean independence of financial returns the new excess predictability ep test statistic has an interpretation of a properly normalized return of a certain trading strategy we discuss similarities of the ep test to the popular directional accuracy da test of pesaran and timmermann power properties of the ep test are advantageous and size properties are comparable to those of the da test we illustrate application of the test using weekly data on the s p500 index

time varying risk premia volatility and technical trading rule profits evidence from foreign currency futures markets abstract this paper re examines the efficiency of foreign currency futures markets by evaluating the role of time varying risk premia and volatility in explaining technical trading rule profits the results show that large parts of the technical rule profits can be explained by the time varying risk premia estimated from a general model for the conditional capm the bootstrap distributions for the profits under the null model average one third to one half of the actual profits and enclose the actual profits well within the 90 confidence intervals time varying conditional volatility explains an additional 10 of the profits

the economic case for low carbon development in rapidly growing developing world cities a case study of palembang indonesia where costs or risks are higher evidence is lacking or supporting institutions are less developed policymakers can struggle to make the case for low carbon investment this is especially the case in developing world cities where decision makers struggle to keep up with the pace and scale of change focusing on palembang in indonesia this paper considers the economic case for proactive investment in low carbon development we find that a rapidly growing industrial city in a developing country can reduce emissions by 24 1 in 2025 relative to business as usual levels with investments of usd405 6 million that would reduce energy expenditure in the city by usd436 8 million emissions from the regional grid could be reduced by 12 2 in 2025 relative to business as usual trends with investments of usd2 9 billion that would generate annual savings of usd175 million these estimates understate the savings from reduced expenditure on energy subsidies and energy infrastructure the compelling economic case for mainstreaming climate mitigation in this developing country city suggests that the constraints on climate action can be political and institutional rather than economic there is therefore a need for more effective energy governance to drive the transition to a low carbon economy

hedging your bets explaining executives market labeling strategies in nanotechnology executives use market labels to position their firms within market categories yet this activity has been given scarce attention in the extant literature that widely assumes that market labels are simple prescribed classification brackets that accurately represent firms characteristics by examining how and why executives use the nanotechnology label we uncover three strategies claiming disassociating and hedging comparing these strategies to firms technological capabilities we find that capabilities alone do not explain executives label use instead the data show that these strategies are driven by executives aspiration to symbolically influence their firms market categorization in particular executives perception of the label s ambiguity their avoidance of perceived credibility gaps and their assessment of the label s signaling value shape their labeling strategies in contrast to extant research which suggests that executives should aim for coherence we find that many executives hedge their affiliation with a nascent market label thus our study shows that in ambiguous contexts noncommitment to a market category may be a particularly prevalent strategy

the significance of technical trading rule profits in the foreign exchange market a bootstrap approach abstract in this paper we present new evidence on the profitability and statistical significance of technical trading rules in the foreign exchange market we utilize a new data base currency futures contracts for the period 1976 1990 and we implement a new testing procedure based on bootstrap methodology our results suggest that simple technical trading rules have very often led to profits that are highly unusual splitting the entire sample period into three 5 year periods reveals that on average the profitability of some trading rules declined in the latest period although profits remained positive on average and significant in many cases jel f31 f47 g15

using genetic algorithms to find technical trading rules1 abstract we use a genetic algorithm to learn technical trading rules for the s p 500 index using daily prices from 1928 to 1995 after transaction costs the rules do not earn consistent excess returns over a simple buy and hold strategy in the out of sample test periods the rules are able to identify periods to be in the index when daily returns are positive and volatility is low and out when the reverse is true these latter results can largely be explained by low order serial correlation in stock index returns

techno economic analysis and environmental impact of fuel economy labels for passenger cars in indonesia abstract in indonesia the transportation sector is the third largest energy consuming sector 28 after the industrial and residential sector transport energy consumption is mostly driven by the road sub sector in order to reduce fuel consumption and emissions production in the transportation sector fuel economy labels for passenger cars have been introduced globally labelling could play an important role in consumers vehicle purchasing decisions between similar vehicles that have different fuel efficiency ratings currently indonesia does not have fuel economy labels however it is expected that fuel economy labels will be implemented in the near future due to the growth of passenger cars and the increasing demand for oil this study is to calculate potential techno economic analysis and emissions reduction when implementing fuel economy labels for passenger cars in indonesia it has been found that fuel economy labels will save a significant amount of fuel economical benefits and emissions reduction in this country

financing energy efficiency in developing countries lessons learned and remaining challenges although energy efficiency implementation is increasingly being recognized by policymakers worldwide as one of the most effective means to mitigating rising energy prices tackling potential environmental risks and enhancing energy security mainstreaming its financing in developing country markets continues to be a challenge experience shows that converting cost effective energy savings potential particularly the demand side improvement opportunities across sectors into investments face many barriers and unforeseen transaction costs this paper draws upon selected experiences with financing energy efficiency in developing countries to explore the key factors of various programmatic approaches and financing instruments that have been applied successfully for delivering energy efficiency solutions through case studies a diverse range of institutional issues are examined related to the identification packaging designing and monitoring approaches that have been used to catalyze traditional and innovative financing of energy efficiency projects with adequate liquidity in major developing country markets and availability of modern energy savings technologies it is often the institutional issues that become a key challenge to address in order to finance and implement robust programs as further operational experience is gained increased knowledge sharing can lead to scaling up of such energy efficiency investments the paper concludes with some ideas for accelerating implementation

reducing fuel subsidies and the implication on fiscal balance and poverty in indonesia a simulation analysis abstract there is an urgent need for phasing out fuel subsidies in indonesia due to a severe budget deficit and a worsening of income distribution fuel subsidies of which almost 72 are enjoyed by the 30 of the richest income groups have consumed on average 63 8 of the total subsidies between 1998 and 2013 this paper aims at evaluating the relationship between existing fuel subsidies and fiscal balance and at analysing the poverty impact of phasing out fuel subsidies applying a cge microsimulation this study found that removing 25 of fuel subsidies increases the incidence of poverty by 0 259 percentage points if this money were fully allocated to government spending the poverty incidence would decrease by 0 27 percentage points moreover the 100 removal of fuel subsidies and the reallocation of 50 of them to government spending transfers and other subsidies could decrease the incidence of poverty by 0 277 percentage points however these reallocation policies might not be effective in compensating for the adverse impacts of the 100 removal of fuel subsidies if economic agents try to seek profit through mark up pricing over the increase of production costs

testing for market timing ability abstract in this paper we examine the henriksson merton test of market timing and its potential usefulness in evaluating investment advice the paper proposes a natural extension of the test that is valid under more general assumptions about the distribution of asset returns we show that the henriksson merton test and its more general counterpart are special cases of standard tests of market rationality and efficiency both tests are applied to a group of foreign exchange advisory services

financial returns and efficiency as seen by an artificial technical analyst abstract we introduce trading rules which are selected by an artificially intelligent agent who learns from experience an artificial technical analyst these rules restrict the data mining concerns associated with the use of simple technical trading rules as model evaluation devices and are good at recognising subtle regularities in return processes the relationship between the efficiency of financial markets and the efficacy of technical analysis is investigated and it is shown that the artificial technical analyst can be used to provide a quantitative measure of market efficiency we estimate this measure on the djia daily index from 1962 to 1986 and draw implications for the optimal behaviour of certain classes of investors it is also shown that the structure of technical trading rules commonly used is consistent with utility maximisation for risk neutral agents and in a myopic sense even for risk averse agents

money as a medium of exchange in an economy with artificially intelligent agents abstract we study the exchange economies of kiyotaki and wright 1989 in which agents must use a commodity or fiat money as a medium of exchange if trade is to occur our agents are artificially intelligent and are modeled as using classifier systems to make decisions in the assignment of credit within the classifier systems we introduce some innovations designed to study sequential decision problems in a multi agent environment for most economies that we have simulated trading and consumption patterns converge to a stationary nash equilibrium even if agents start with random rules in economies with multiple equilibria the only equilibrium that emerges in our simulations is the one in which goods with low storage costs play the role of medium of exchange i e the fundamental equilibrium of kiyotaki and wright

charts noise and fundamentals in the london foreign exchange market this paper presents some empirical evidence on the prevalence perceived importance and nature of chartist or technical analysis in the london foreign exchange market if noise traders see e g de long et al i987 are defined as those speculators who do not base their trading strategies on a consideration of market fundamentals then it clearly encompasses those traders who employ chart analysis i e those who base their strategies on the analysis and extrapolation of past price movements alone

pricing efficiency and information use in risky markets information has economic value if it helps estimate the value of something both individuals and society at large are interested in the extent to which information about an object s value is contained in its market price apart from distributional issues society s interest is that price guide resource allocation so as to maximize value weighted production prices that would induce such efficient resource use are themselves efficient the purpose of the present paper is to distinguish various notions of an efficient price and to discuss problems in the assessment and achievement of pricing efficiency emphasis is placed on the information content and time domain of prices

why do contractors contract the experience of highly skilled technical professionals in a contingent labor market this study examines 52 highly skilled technical contractors explanations in 1998 of why they entered the contingent labor force and how their subsequent experiences altered their viewpoint the authors report three general implications of their examination of the little studied high skill side of contingent labor first current depictions of contingent work are inaccurate for example contrary to the pessimistic employment relations perspective most of these interviewees found contracting better paying than permanent employment and contrary to optimistic free agent views many reported feeling anxiety and estrangement second occupational networks arose to satisfy needs such as training and wage setting that employing organizations satisfy for non contingent workers third regarding their place in the labor market high skilled and well paid technical contractors cannot be called as contingent workers usually are secondary sector workers and their market is not dyadic with individuals s

trading volume reactions to annual accounting earnings announcements the incremental role of predisclosure information asymmetry abstract this study provides empirical evidence regarding the effect of annual accounting earnings announcements on investors trading behavior we find that the magnitude of trading volume reaction is an increasing function of both the magnitude of the associated price reaction and the level of predisclosure information asymmetry these results are consistent with kim and verrecchia s 1991a theoretical trading volume proposition

the unequal benefits of fuel subsidies a review of evidence for developing countries summary this paper reviews evidence on the impact of fuel subsidy reform on household welfare in developing countries on average the burden of subsidy reform is substantial and is approximately neutrally distributed across income groups a 0 25 decrease in the per liter subsidy results in a 5 decrease in income for all groups more than half of this impact arises from the indirect impact on prices of other goods and services consumed by households fuel subsidies are a costly approach to protecting the poor due to substantial benefit leakage to higher income groups in absolute terms the top income quintile captures six times more in subsidies than the bottom

solar energy markets economics and policies abstract solar energy has experienced phenomenal growth in recent years due to both technological improvements resulting in cost reductions and government policies supportive of renewable energy development and utilization this study analyzes the technical economic and policy aspects of solar energy development and deployment while the cost of solar energy has declined rapidly in the recent past it still remains much higher than the cost of conventional energy technologies like other renewable energy technologies solar energy benefits from fiscal and regulatory incentives including tax credits and exemptions feed in tariff preferential interest rates renewable portfolio standards and voluntary green power programs in many countries the emerging carbon credit markets are expected to provide additional incentives to solar energy deployment however the scale of incentives provided by the existing carbon market instruments such as the clean development mechanism of the kyoto protocol is limited despite the huge technical potential the development and large scale deployment of solar energy technologies world wide still has to overcome a number of technical financial regulatory and institutional barriers the continuation of policy supports might be necessary for several decades to maintain and enhance the growth of solar energy in both developed and developing countries

the existence of fully rational expectations approximate equilibria with noisy price observations abstract nonrevealing fully rational expectations approximate equilibria exist in microeconomic pure exchange economies in which uninformed agents have suitably dispersed noisy price observations such traders maximize a state dependent expected utility conditional on the price vector they observe the distributions of noisy price observations and the correct equilibrium relationship between states of the world and prices in equilibrium aggregate excess demand is small with high probability in every state of the world and its expectation is also small this magnitude diminishes as the noisy price observations become more accurate equilibria are obtained by applying a fixed point argument to state dependent excess demand functions which are smooth because of the noisy price observations

price and trading volume reaction surrounding earnings announcements a closer examination the process of information dissemination and interpretation in securities markets is very complex and mostly unobservable while changes in prices and the amount of trading that takes place at the market level provide evidence of information processing verrecchia 1981 demonstrated that these are not sufficient to describe completely the dissemination of information and its interpretation by investors a descriptive study of price changes and trading volume however may still provide some insights into how investors react to information this paper is an empirical investigation of price changes and trading volume during the days surrounding the announcement of quarterly and annual earnings in the wall street journal wsj in the original paper investigating trading volume and price changes surrounding earnings announcements beaver 1968 was primarily concerned with whether the annual earnings announcement had information content i e led to changes in investors assessments of the probability distribution of future returns if there were any significant price changes and or trading volume during the week of the announcement then the annual earnings announcement was assumed to have had

informational efficiency and information subsets this paper proposes a new definition of the efficient markets hypothesis with respect to information which is more formal and precise than those of rubinstein 13 fama 4 jensen 6 and beaver 1 and which fits well as a framework for interpreting the many tests of the efficient markets hypothesis in the literature security markets are here considered efficient with respect to information set if and only if revealing to all agents would change neither equilibrium prices nor portfolios in addition to other desirable features this definition has the subset property efficiency with respect to implies efficiency with respect to any subset of

stretchwork managing the career progression paradox in external labor markets changes in employment relationships have diminished the degree to which internal labor markets shape careers using comparative field studies we examine how contract workers try to achieve career

managing the energy trilemma the case of indonesia abstract this article argues that a central challenge for energy governance is how to manage a complex energy trilemma involving the sometimes competing demands of energy security climate change mitigation and particularly in developing countries energy poverty it suggests that tensions between the horns of the trilemma in large part explain indonesia s current profoundly suboptimal energy policy while these tensions are not inherently incapable of resolution such resolution would require good governance at both state and global levels the possibilities for and obstacles confronting such governance are explored and provisional solutions canvassed

efficiency of experimental security markets with insider information an application of rational expectations models the study reports on the ability of competing models of market information integration and dissemination to explain the behavior of simple laboratory markets for a one priced security returns to the security depended upon a randomly drawn state of nature some agents insiders whose identity was unknown to other agents knew the state before the markets opened with replication of market conditions the predictions of a fully revealing rational expectations model are relatively accurate prices adjusted immediately to near rational expectations prices profits of insiders were virtually indistinguishable from non insiders and efficiency levels converged to near 100 percent

insider trading in a rational expectations economy it is often argued that efficiency considerations require society to freely permit insider trading in this article an opposing efficiency argument is formalized the model incorporates an investment stage followed by a trading stage if outsiders expect insiders to take advantage of them in trading outsiders will reduce their investment the insiders loss from this diminished investor confidence may more than offset their trading gains consequently a prohibition on insider trading may effect a pareto improvement insiders are made better off if they can precommit not to trade on their privileged information govemment regulation accomplishes exactly this jel 022 026 313 the traditional rationale articulated for insider trading regulation and other securities law is that such rules promote confidence in markets indeed president franklin d roosevelt justified the first major u s securities legislation by saying it should give impetus to honest dealing in securities and thereby bring back public confidence similar language is still invoked half a century later in connection with enforcement efforts against insider trading and in proposals for tightened stock

the relationship between daily u s and japanese equity prices evidence from spot versus futures markets abstract the daily and overnight transmission of equity prices between the u s and japan is examined in this paper this study documents that the use of the opening value of an equity index to represent equity prices at the open is unlikely to be reliable and the calculated opening values of the nikkei 225 and especially the s p500 indexes mostly reflect prior days closing prices unlike prior studies this paper accounts for this problem of non synchronous trading at the open and finds that u s equity prices do not lead japanese equity prices as both u s and japanese opening equity prices reflect overnight price changes in the other market

assessing the role of energy in development and climate policies conceptual approach and key indicators summary the paper discusses a number of key conceptual issues related to the role of energy in development and its potential synergies and tradeoffs with climate change the relationship between economic development and energy over time is discussed and illustrated by data from china india and south africa and some other countries it concludes that energy plays an important role as a productivity enhancing factor in economic development and in human well being several policy goals related to sustainable development energy and climate can be integrated however meeting all these policy goals requires a special effort and has significant cost implications

rethinking internal labor markets new insights from a comparative perspective internal labor markets take different forms in the capitalist and the socialistfirm as the distinctive organizational problems in each economic system produce differing but comparable institutional solutions analysis of systemic uncertainties and the organizational responses of workers and managers yields a comparative model of mirrored opposition in economies in which the firm operates in a market environment systemic uncertainties regarding labor are reduced through internal bureaucratic rules operating according to a classificatory logic in the socialist economy by contrast where systemic uncertainties are produced by a bureaucratic environment the firm responds through internal market transactions based on affiliative ties the market like character of these internal mechanisms is brought into even sharper relief in an analysis of the recent establishment in hungary of semi autonomous subcontracting units inside the enterprise

do prices transmit rationally expected information a simple model with asymmetric information in which inventory holders or traders submit demand curves to an auctioneer has a unique partially revealing equilibrium we wonder whether the agents can plausibly coordinate on this equilibrium through eductive reasoning relying on common knowledge the analysis stresses the role of two effects sensitivity and amplification whose product should be small enough the property is obtained whenever the equilibrium excess demand is steep enough i e when the search for information does not distort demand too much neither the influence of the number of informed agents nor that of noise trading are monotonic real time learning has strikingly different features jel d82 d84

history and career in a bureaucratic labor market this paper present a synthesis of theoretical statements on the determinants of socioeconimic achievement with bureaucratic internal labor markets and an empirical examination of the reultant predictions the study focuses on careers in the u s civil service from 1963 to 1977 using official personnel records on a 1 sample of whitecollar federal employees along with secondary survey data the career is viewed as an outcome not only of individual attributes but also of both organizational and historical contexts the empirical strategy used to disentangle the individual organizational and historical effects is cohort analysis five successive entering cohorts are differentiated and for each a model of socioeconomic achievement is estimated which corporates key characteristics of bureaucratic labor markets not heretofore considered in such models the considerable power of the model to account for variations in occupational prestige and salary supports a weberian view of bureaucratic labor markets a

market efficiency and natural selection in a commodity futures market while the literature usually justifies informational efficiency in the context of rationality this article shows informational efficiency by applying the evolutionary idea of natural selection in a dynamic futures market speculators are assumed to merely act upon their predetermined trading types buyer or seller their predetermined fractions of wealth allocated for speculation and their inherent abilities to predict the spot price reflected in their distributions of prediction errors with respect to the spot price this article shows that the proportion of time that the futures price equals the spot price converges to one with probability 1 article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

effects of insider trading disclosures on speculative activity and future prices this paper explores a simple model of the effects of requiring a public disclosure of insider trader activity in future markets

cumulative gender disadvantage in contract employment women s wages do not grow with experience or tenure as much as men s do many accounts of this cumulative gender disadvantage attribute it to women s underinvestment in firm specific skills yet if that were true this disadvantage would not exist where firm specific skills are not rewarded by the labor market this article investigates this argument in the context of contract employment where demand for firm specificity is minimal contrary to expectations men still receive higher rewards than women over time drawing on quantitative evidence and qualitative fieldwork using job histories of high skill contractors affiliated with a staffing firm the author finds support for two sources of women s disadvantage lower rates of movement across clients on the supply side and unmeasured demand side factors by which similar levels of tenure and client transitions accrue lower rewards to women implications for research on gender stratification and career advancement in nonformalized labor markets are discussed

short term projects and emergent careers evidence from hollywood the hollywood film industry is considered as a system of recurrent ties among the various major participants who usually work under short term contracts for single films this form of project based organization in seen as a response to uncertainty and risk in the film industry the paper examines the ways in which independent contractors producers directors cinematographers and actors organize and operate to reduce uncertainty and risk and to increase profits the analysis of data from 2 430 films made in the period 1965 80 establishes patterns of recurrent ties among participants who are at comparable levels of cumulative productivity with respect to earnings oscars oscar nominations and number of previous films the paper also considers the degree to which film earnings are influenced by the past productivity of the major participants

information and strategic behavior abstract does encouraging trader participation enhance market competitiveness this paper shows that when trader preferences are interdependent trader market power does not necessarily decrease with greater participation and traders need not become price takers in large markets thus larger markets can be less liquid and associated with lower ex ante welfare in the linear normal model the necessary and sufficient condition on the information structure is provided under which price impact is monotone in market size a condition is given when the rational expectations equilibrium which is typically not fully revealing within the considered class of preference interdependencies is obtained in large markets

a note on the weak form efficiency of capital markets the application of simple technical trading rules to uk stock prices 1935 to 1994 abstract brock et al 1992 found technical trading rules to have predictive ability with regards to the dow jones index the current paper considers whether this result can be replicated on uk data the paper also considers whether investors could earn excess returns from technical analysis in a costly trading environment the paper concludes that although the technical trading rules examined do have predictive ability in terms of uk data their use would not allow investors to make excess returns in the presence of costly trading

partially revealing rational expectations equilibrium in a competitive economy abstract a class of pure exchange economies is considered in which some agents are informed of private information and others are uninformed existence of a partially revealing rational expectations equilibrium ree is proved without restricting attention to particular functional forms for utility functions and probability distributions without introducing noise into the model and without departing from the standard definition of ree the equilibrium is robust in the sense that if the primitives of the economy are slightly perturbed the economy continues to have a qualitatively similar ree with somewhat stronger assumptions placed on the economy the equilibrium is also the unique measurable ree

the cost of technical trading rules in the forex market a utility based evaluation we compute the opportunity cost for rational risk averse agents of using technical trading rules in the foreign exchange rate market we decompose this opportunity cost into two parts i a cost related to the misallocation of wealth which increases with the investor s level of risk aversion allocational cost and ii a cost related to the investor s erroneous belief regarding the sign of the expected excess return expectational cost we find that even for low levels of risk aversion the opportunity cost of using chartist rules tends to be prohibitively high

naive trading rules in financial markets and wiener kolmogorov prediction theory a study of technical analysis this article attempts a formal study of technical analysis which is a class of informal prediction rules often preferred to wiener kolmogorov prediction theory by participants of financial markets yet wiener kolmogorov prediction theory provides optimal linear forecasts this article investigates two issues that may explain this contradiction first the article attempts to devise formal algorithms to represent various forms of technical analysis in order to see if these rules are well defined second the article discusses under which conditions if any technical analysis might capture those properties of stock prices left unexploited by linear models of wiener kolmogorov theory copyright 1991 by university of chicago press