the carbon footprint of uk households 1990 2004 a socio economically disaggregated quasi multi regional input output model this paper presents a socio economically disaggregated framework for attributing co2 emissions to people s high level functional needs based around a quasi multi regional input output qmrio model the study in theory takes into account all co2 emissions that arise from energy used in production of goods and services to satisfy uk household demand whether the emissions occur in the uk or abroad results show that co2 emissions attributable to households were 15 above 1990 levels in 2004 and that although absolute decoupling occurred between household expenditure and co2 during the uk s switch from coal to gas in the early 1990s since then only slight relative decoupling is evident the proportion of co2 that arises outside uk borders in support of uk consumption is rising and reducing these emissions is particularly problematic in a global trading system investigation into the carbon footprint of different segments of the uk population shows wide variation the segment with the highest carbon footprint emits 64 more co2 than the segment with the lowest results show that recreation and leisure are responsible for over one quarter of co2 emissions in a typical uk household in 2004 we conclude that expanding lifestyle aspirations are significant factors in driving household co2 emissions but the study also emphasizes that attention must be paid to the infrastructures and institutions that result in considerable amounts of co2 being locked up in basic household activities through which people meet their everyday needs for subsistence protection and communication with family and friends the findings highlight the sheer scale of the challenge facing uk policy makers and suggest that policies should be targeted towards segments of society responsible for the highest carbon footprints

allowance trading and energy consumption under a personal carbon trading scheme a dynamic programming approach abstract in response to the challenge of climate change personal carbon trading was put forward as a policy instrument to promote low carbon behavior in the household sector to evaluate the effectiveness of this scheme it is important to gain insight into the allowance trading and energy consumption behavior in a long emission commitment period this paper proposes a dynamic programming model to investigate allowance trading and energy consumption a main feature of the model is its consideration of allowance banking and borrowing activities ten simulated scenarios with different allowance prices price volatility and carbon emission rates are discussed the findings show that consumers would trade more actively when allowance price is volatile it is also found that energy consumption and allowance trading will decrease when the carbon emission rate increases overall the analysis in this paper implies that personal carbon trading scheme would be an effective policy measure to change consumers behavior therefore it would be valuable for decision makers to consider the introduction and implementation of this scheme

federal borrowing and short term interest rates this paper is an empirical study of the effects of federal government borrowing on short term interest rates it is often taken for granted that increases in federal borrowing cause higher short term rates but little empirical support exists for this assumption in fact this paper demonstrates that federal borrowing is a relatively unimportant and insignificant determinant of short term rates an implication of this result is that financial crowding out effects of government deficit spending may not be overly large postulates about interest rate behavior are the driving force behind many hypotheses of the crowding out literature however these interest rate effects have received relatively little direct attention in this literature this is surprising since as a general rule the stronger the interest rate effect is the stronger the crowding out effect will be an empirical determination of the size of the deficit spending interest rate effect gives some empirical content to the crowding out controversy in section ii of this paper the relationship between federal borrowing interest rates and crowding out is discussed and a loanable funds model of short term interest rates is developed in section iii the regression model is generated and tested the essential result is that variation in three month treasury bill rates is caused by expected inflation changes in the monetary base and by changes in the level of economic activity there is no statistically significant relation between short term interest rates and federal borrowing in section iv additional regression tests are performed which confirm the results in section iii and the problem of simultaneous equation bias is discussed the final part of the paper is a discussion of some implications of the results reported in sections iii and iv

intertemporal lifestyle changes and carbon emissions evidence from a china household survey abstract this paper examines the endogenous evolution of household consumption patterns and household carbon emissions hces by integrating the analysis methods of income distribution with climate change based on a large scale household survey spanning from 2012 to 2016 in china we estimated the direct and indirect hces observed inverse u shaped carbon kuznets curves ckc and significant changes in hces over the period at the household level applying the oaxaca blinder method we decomposed factors causing the changes in hces and found that income and demographic effects contribute only 25 1 to the total increase of hces the other 74 9 remain unexplained and we define them as the effect of intertemporal lifestyle changes further analysis from multiple perspectives illustrates that the lifestyles of households across various social strata are becoming increasingly higher carbon intensive over time even though the income remains unchanged the findings indicate that existing modeling and projections of carbon emissions based on income and household characteristics may underestimate the future emissions pressure from the household sector hence we conclude that in order to reach more meaningful results the increasing effect of lifestyles should be taken into account when conducting climate change studies and formulating climate policies

to cool a sweltering earth does energy efficiency improvement offset the climate impacts of lifestyle abstract as technical efficiency improvement in energy use remains a touchstone measure to curb greenhouse gas ghg emissions there is substantial concern about whether this approach can offset the large and expanding impacts of human actions critics contend that without adjustments to the prevailing consumptive lifestyle energy efficiency improvement will generate only token reductions in ghg emissions i address this concern by examining the extent to which technical efficiency improvement in energy use offsets the impacts of housing related lifestyle on ghg emissions i build from two perspectives the physical technical economic models that consider energy efficiency improvement as a potent strategy to curb residential energy consumption and the lifestyle and social behavioral approach which questions this view the analyses reveal consistent positive relationship between lifestyle and energy consumption the results also indicate that energy efficiency improvement has mixed effects on energy consumption in fact model based figures show that technical efficiency improvement in energy use leads to slightly higher energy consumption if it is not accompanied by adjustments to lifestyle

embedded carbon footprint of chinese urban households structure and changes reducing environmental pressure is a major concern for china but despite the improvements in energy efficiency its gross carbon dioxide co2 emissions have maintained an upward trend consistent with the jevons paradox a fundamental shift is thus needed at all levels including the household this paper explores the embedded carbon footprint ecf of chinese urban households associated with activities such as food personal transport communications education recreation health and hygiene it uses an input output model for carbon emissions and 2003 2009 urban household data the results show that the total ecf emission intensity increases when an individual s consumption is higher than 10 000 yuan structural changes are further observed with consumption expenditure above 10 000 food clothing and other survival oriented emissions intensities as well as education health and development oriented emissions intensities reduce transport recreation housing and enjoyment oriented emissions intensities increase or remain stable and the total emissions intensity increases currently per capita consumption expenditure of chinese urban residents exceeds 10 000 and as income continues to rise china will remain on a high carbon track there is a need for better policies management and behavioural change and the study provides some policy suggestions including a carbon quota system to guide individual consumption

the differing effects of pre and post 1981 federal budget deficits on tax adjusted real interest rates this paper employs an estimating equation relating tax adjusted real interest rates to deficits and other economic variables to examine the differing effects of pre and post 1981 federal budget deficits on ex ante and ex post real tax adjusted short term interest rates over the period 1961 1 1992 2 the results for the 1961 1 1992 2 period taking into account a shift in the linkage between the ratio of alternative measures of the deficit to potential gdp occurring in 1981 1 indicate that the ratio of both the nipa deficit and the cyclically adjusted deficit to potential gdp have a significant effect on ex ante and ex post real tax adjusted interest rates for the post 1981 period but no significant effect before 1981

applying quantile regression and shapley decomposition to analyzing the determinants of household embedded carbon emissions evidence from urban china abstract as co2 emissions differ in households with different characteristics mitigation policies still address the contributions of these characteristics and their effects on specific households using a representative resident survey in urban china this paper compares how household characteristics differ in their associations with household embedded carbon emissions heces at different levels by quantile regression then this paper analyzes the contributions of these characteristics by shapley decomposition the findings include the following i household income is the most important contributor to the difference of heces and its positive effect increases as heces rise ii the use of wealth has different effects on heces because household housing ownership and deposits contribute little to heces but the positive effects of household car ownership contribute 25 8 iii young people and children will emit more heces than adults the employed emit more than persons who are unemployed or retired iv education increases heces overall but mainly at the low quantiles the negative effect of the marriage increases as heces rise v income car ownership marital status size and constitution of households with high heces should be addressed to reduce the inequality of heces indeed education on the low carbon concept is another way forward

budget deficits and interest rates in the united states in this paper an attempt has been made to reexamine the effect of budget deficits in the united states on interest rates unlike the previous studies which use only one definition of the dependent variable we have used all three namely the nominal and the ex post and the ex ante real interest rate further unlike previous studies we considered both short term and long term interest rates our results provide absolutely no support for the proposition that federal deficits affect interest rates and thus contradict the recent findings by cebula 1987 and kolluri and giannaros 1987 finally the paper provides some further support for the inverted fisher hypothesis proposed by carmichael and stebbing 1983

new evidence on financial crowding out this paper has provided evidence that federal government borrowing has in fact as least for the period 1970 through 1982 exercised a significant impact upon short term interest rates in the private sector in particular it is shown here that the rate of change of the interest yield on three month t bills exercises a positive and very highly significant impact upon the rate of change of the prime rate of interest to the extent that private sector spending is sensitive to the interest rate a very strong argument on behalf of financial crowding out can be made

estimating functional forms in cost prices abstract klaus conrad 1983 developed the cost price approach based upon the notion of partially fixed factor proportions as an alternative to the traditional neoclassical method of modeling cost and production functions he showed that a simplified version of his model could be used to estimate a cobb douglas cost function in cost prices we have been able to estimate the full form of conrad s proposed model and extend his technique to the ces and generalized leontief cost functions we also illustrate how to model technical change in cost prices and in cost shares

co2 emissions from household consumption in india between 1993 94 and 2006 07 a decomposition analysis abstract co 2 emission from anthropogenic activities is one of the major causes of global warming india being an agriculture dependent country global warming would mean monsoon instability and consequent food scarcity natural disasters and economic concerns however with proper policy interventions co 2 emissions can be controlled input output analysis has been used to estimate direct and indirect co 2 emissions by households for 1993 94 1998 99 2003 04 and 2006 07 complete decomposition analysis of the changes in co 2 emissions between 1993 94 and 2006 07 has been done to identify the causes into pollution energy intensity structure activity and population effects according to broad household consumption categories results indicate that activity structure and population effects are the main causes of increase in co 2 emission from household fuel consumption to identify the causes at the sectoral level a second decomposition has been done for changes between 2003 04 and 2006 07 to identify the causes in the next stage finally alternative energy policy options have been examined for each consumption category to reduce emissions combined strategies of technology upgradation fuel switching and market management in order to reduce co 2 emissions for sectors like batteries other non electrical machinery construction and electronic equipments including television for which all the effects are positive need to be adopted

have large budget deficits caused rising trade deficits for the united states the 1980s have been years of both large and unprecedented trade deficits as well as massive federal budget deficits the trade deficit rose from 25 billion in 1980 to 124 billion in 1985 during this same period federal budget deficits soared from 74 billion in 1980 to more than 212 billion in 1985 it is widely believed that the u s trade deficit rose mainly because of the skyrocketing federal budget deficit presenting such a view are for example hutchison and pigott 25 hutchison and pyle 26 clark 11 modigliani 30 and aschauer 2 besides economists many labor unions i e afl cio and official government documents see the economic report of the president particularly of 1984 have all shared similar views the issues involved have important policy implications suppose that the basic reason for rising trade deficits is indeed the escalating federal budget deficit in this case policy makers may focus on curtailing the budget deficit in order to resolve the trade deficit problem that has adversely affected several sectors such as manufacturing industries and agriculture however if such a view concerning the causal role of the budget deficit is incorrect then reductions in the federal budget deficit may not resolve the trade deficit dilemma and moreover attention will be diverted from more relevant and urgently needed policy options 6 the purpose of this paper is to empirically investigate the conventional argument that high federal budget deficit has been the prime cause of the escalating u s trade deficit finding only partial empirical evidence to support it in section ii i argue that most of previous studies in this area appear flawed by a methodological error rendering their tests unreliable for discriminating between a number of equally plausible hypotheses section iii describes the data and methodology used in the paper section iv presents the empirical results section v summarizes and concludes the paper

toward a new conception of the environment competitiveness relationship accepting a fixed trade off between environmental regulation and competitiveness unnecessarily raises costs and slows down environmental progress studies finding high environmental compliance costs have traditionally focused on static cost impacts ignoring any offsetting productivity benefits from innovation they typically overestimated compliance costs neglected innovation offsets and disregarded the affected industry s initial competitiveness rather than simply adding to cost properly crafted environmental standards can trigger innovation offsets allowing companies to improve their resource productivity shifting the debate from pollution control to pollution prevention was a step forward it is now necessary to make the next step and focus on resource productivity

promises and pitfalls in environmentally extended input output analysis for china a survey of the literature abstract as the world s largest developing economy china plays a key role in global climate change and other environmental impacts of international concern environmentally extended input output analysis ee ioa is an important and insightful tool seeing widespread use in studying large scale environmental impacts in china calculating and analyzing greenhouse gas emissions carbon and water footprints pollution and embodied energy this paper surveys the published articles regarding ee ioa for china in peer reviewed journals and provides a comprehensive and quantitative overview of the body of literature examining the research impact environmental issues addressed and data utilized the paper further includes a discussion of the shortcomings in official chinese data and of the potential means to move beyond its inherent limitations

new methodology for the ecological footprint with an application to the new zealand economy abstract sustainable development has become a primary objective for many countries throughout the world since the late 1980s a major difficulty associated with sustainable development objectives however is the absence of reliable indicators to measure progress towards the goal of sustainability the ecological footprint provides an estimate of the land area necessary to sustain current levels of resource consumption for a given population on an aggregate basis the ecological footprint may be compared with the amount of ecologically productive land available to give an indication of whether consumption patterns are likely to be sustainable this paper proposes the use of a modified form of input output analysis to calculate the ecological footprint the input output approach provides a consistent means of calculating an ecological footprint using data collected as part of the system of national accounts in most developed countries in addition it makes explicit the link between the level of economic activity in a country and its corresponding impact on the environment an application of this methodology to new zealand indicates that it takes 3 49 has of ecologically productive land per year to sustain the average new zealander s current level of consumption

using composition of land multiplier to estimate ecological footprints associated with production activity abstract ecological footprint ef a measure of sustainability represents the areas of land and water required to produce the goods and services for satisfying the consumption of a defined human population or economy and to provide environmental assimilation capacity for keeping its environmental quality at a given level production land footprint a main component of the ef represents the lands used by production sectors for producing the goods and services for the final consumption of a given human population there have been at least two alternatives in estimating the production land footprint one is based on the estimates of apparent consumption of each type of resource along the line of the methodology proposed by wackernagel and rees wackernagel m rees w e 1996 and its later refinement the other suggested by bicknell et al 1998 is based on the monetary values of products that are delivered to domestic final demand the information recorded in an input output table the former faces the challenge of distinguishing the commodities used as intermediate input from those as final consumption although its recent development has tried to calculate the raw materials used directly in traded manufactured products wackernagel m lewan l hansson c b 1999a it is not an easy job because the indirect input requirements are also involved using input output analysis which has been widely used to consider the direct and indirect input requirements of supporting final demand may alleviate this difficulty bicknell et al 1998 adopted input output analysis to estimate the footprint of new zealand in their calculation they used land multipliers to obtain the production land areas required to produce the outputs for domestic final consumption directly and indirectly and presented the estimates under three land categories agricultural land forest land and degraded land however this presentation causes errors in the concept and calculation this is because that the area requirement of sector j s production land is obtained by multiplying sector j s land multiplier with its output for domestic final consumption the result would contain not only sector j s own production land but also those of other sectors whose outputs sector j uses as inputs thus the ensuing estimates on sectoral production lands cannot be presented by land category using the hypothetical data in the article of bicknell et al 1998 this paper explains the reasons for using the composition of land multipliers instead of land multipliers in estimating the production land footprint so that the calculated areas can be expressed by land category the revised calculation is then applied to taiwan for estimating her two footprint components production land and energy land in 1991

energy requirements of sydney households supporting the lifestyles of the populations of modern cities requires vast quantities of natural resources and leads to environmental stresses such as air and water pollution research into the metabolism of cities therefore aims at understanding the physical flows into within and out of cities with a view to reducing the use of resources and the environmental impacts one important physical indicator is energy use most studies on cities only consider direct or end user energy consumption since the function of cities is to serve the lives of their residents indirect energy use in cities or energy embodied in the consumption of goods and services by its residents can be regarded as being as important as direct energy use however physical models of cities are extremely complex and have difficulty in dealing with boundary issues and hence the indirect resource requirements in this paper we use input output analysis and detailed household expenditure data to yield comprehensive energy use breakdowns for the 14 statistical subdivisions of sydney multivariate regression and structural path analysis spa are used to interpret the results clear correlations can be drawn between energy use and income household size age and degree of urbanity the structural path analysis is used to demonstrate how significant differences in lifestyles between inner and outer areas of sydney leads to different energy use characteristics this final consumption based approach to analysing the energy requirements for households has important implications for measures aimed at reducing energy use which tend to only consider direct energy use d 2004 elsevier b v all rights reserved

the role of the budget deficit during the rise in the dollar exchange rate from 1979 1985 the u s dollar appreciated in value over 40 from early 1979 until it peaked in february 1985 also during this period the u s federal government budget deficit grew from 16b to 200b according to hakkio and higgins 15 it is high u s interest rates and foreign capital inflows into the u s that provide the linkage between these two events there is a considerable debate in the literature as to the precise influence of budget deficits upon these various linkages evans 10 for example suggests that large deficits did not cause the rise in the dollar also there are numerous studies refuting the association between deficits and interest rates see evans 11 and hoelscher 16 for example on the other hand plosser 25 reports a positive association between government spending and interest rates and hoelscher 17 reports a positive association between deficits and long term rates this paper uses an open economy vector autoregression var model to investigate these linkages finding that after controlling for the influence of money inflation the dollar and the trade deficit there is indeed causality running from deficits to long term interest rates the model also identifies a relationship between long rates and the dollar value thus verifying the linkage albeit indirect of budget deficits and the dollar value a second concern is that large budget deficits may have led to an accommodative monetary policy causing excessive money growth rates at times for example from 1982 07 1983 09 ml growth averaged 13 and when the dollar value peaked in 1985 ml was growing at about 12 2 a number of authors have examined this issue yet collectively they have not arrived at a uniform conclusion ahking and miller 1 provide a summary of these studies the majority of these studies suffer from at least one of two faults that i attempt to correct in this paper in particular they either suffer from exogeneity problems stemming from single equation models or they suffer from omitted variable bias due to the exclusion of international variables variance decompositions generated from an open economy var indicate that deficits explain more of the variance of the forecast error of money growth than any other variable the results also verify that deficits affect inflation only through their influence on the money supply

long term trends in direct and indirect household energy intensities a factor in dematerialisation abstract dematerialisation is assumed to contribute significantly to the alleviation of environmental problems one of the possible causes of dematerialisation is a change in the consumption patterns of households the aim of this article is to analyse changes consumption patterns of dutch households in the period between 1948 to 1996 in order to discover whether these changes haven influenced the energy intensity of society due to the rise in consumption the total household energy requirement per capita grew on average by 2 4 per year over a period of 48 years this figure ignores efficiency changes in the supplying sectors in the same period the total energy intensity of households fluctuated but on average changed from 5 6 to 6 3 mj nlg an increase of 0 25 per year if we exclude the direct energy consumption we find a slight decline in the indirect energy intensity namely from 3 8 to 3 6 mj nlg 0 14 per year no significant trends to a lower energy intensity are found and there is no indication of dematerialisation of the consumption patterns if governments pursue a policy of sustainable development they have to take into account the fact that dematerialisation of the consumption pattern does not seem to be an autonomous process

government deficits capital flows and interest rates 1988 government deficits capital flows and interest rates applied economics vol 20 no 6 pp 753 765

inflation and government deficits there is a pronounced positive correlation of inflation andgovernment deficits in the united states since world war ii the purpose of this paper is to test the three leading explanationsof this correlation these three explanations are a a deficitincreases prices through a wealth effect b a deficit results inthe federal reserve purchasing debt thus increasing the moneysupply and prices and c expected inflation increases the deficit which is the change in the nominal value of bonds no supportis found for either of the first two hypotheses the results indi cate that expected government deficits have no significance forfuture inflation since world war ii the united states has experienced large federal government deficits and a sustained peacetime inflation three differentconnections between the deficits and inflation are prominent in theliterature the most direct connection between government deficits and inflationis that by increasing the real value of outstanding bonds and perceived netwealth a deficit can raise total spending and the price level this connec tion is also the most long standing and is suggested by metzler 1951 andpatinkin 1965 for example monetarists generally and buchanan and wagner 1977 in particularhave emphasized a different link between deficits and inflation they sug gest that the federal reserve purchases government bonds when the trea sury sells bonds thus increasing high powered money the money supply and the price level the federal reserve might behave this way for exam ple because it is attempting to hold down interest rates on governmentsecurities when deficits occur recently barro 1978 1979 has put forward a hypothesis that deficitsare a result of inflation rather than inflation being a result of deficits thegovernment deficit is the change in the nominal value of outstanding gov ernment bonds if the anticipated inflation rate increases then the nomi nal value of bonds must increase i e the government will run a deficit tokeep the same anticipated real amount of bonds all three of these possible connections between government deficitsand inflation are consistent with the observed positive correlation of defi cits and inflation the implications however are strikingly different con

the carbon footprint of greek households 1995 2012 abstract the goal of this paper is twofold i to investigate the carbon footprint of greek households throughout the period 1995 2012 in order to identify the main socio economic factors that affect ghg emissions and ii to evaluate the effectiveness of the implemented policies to tackle climate change in this a consumption based emissions inventory approach is applied the analysis is based on an environmentally extended input output model including direct co2 emissions from households indirect co2 emissions from electricity consumption and indirect co2 emissions from energy used in the production of goods and services purchased by households domestic or imported statistical analysis and appropriate regression models were developed in order to identify the main factors influencing the carbon footprint of greek households the results indicate that the observed trends during the period 1995 2008 can be attributed to the effect of high economic growth this trend is partially counterbalanced by favorable weather conditions and the implementation of greenhouse mitigation policies and measures mainly in the supply side since 2008 the shrinking household income is the dominant driver in addition the effectiveness of energy conservation policies and measures in place is rather low while the effect of imports is limited

structural federal deficits and interest rates some causality and co integration tests the relationship between federal budget deficits and interest rates has been the focus of extensive research recently cebula 4 examined this relationship empirically and concluded that the federal budget deficit does in fact exercise a positive and significant impact upon the nominal moody s aaa rated corporate bond rate 4 208 such a finding is at odds with the great majority of recent empirical studies in this area if valid this finding assigns to large deficits significant adverse effects on both private investment crowding out and on trade balance via an overvalued dollar given these profound public policy implications cebula s finding warrants further examination

an empirical investigation into the impact of us federal government budget deficits on the real interest rate yield on intermediate term treasury issues 1972 2012 this study provides new empirical evidence on the impact of the federal budget deficit on the real interest rate yields on intermediate term debt issues of the us treasury represented herein by the ex post real interest rate yields on 3 year treasury notes and 7 year treasury notes two interest rate measures that have received essentially no attention in the economics and finance literature in recent years this study is couched within a loanable funds model that includes two ex post real interest rate yields the monetary base as a per cent of gdp the change in per capita real gdp net financial capital inflows as a per cent of gdp and the budget deficit as a per cent of gdp this study uses annual data for the study period 1972 to 2012 a time period that includes quantitative easing monetary policies by the federal reserve two stage least squares estimations reveal that the federal budget deficit expressed as a per cent of gdp exercised a positive and statistically significant impact on the ex

a bibliometric review energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions in the residential sector residential sector has been one key sector for reducing its greenhouse gas emissions due to its significant contribution to global warming researchers in different countries have studied household energy consumption patterns and greenhouse gas emissions in order to promote low carbon lifestyles however few review papers have been published in this regard leading to a lack of systematic understanding on the related research achievements hence by using a bibliometric approach this paper aims to review the existing literature and examine the evolution of such a field so that the research trends can be uncovered including popular research methods citation analysis is performed to assess the influence of most productive journals countries territories and authors network analysis is also conducted to evaluate the relationship among different countries territories authors and keywords research outcomes of this paper present a comprehensive research picture on residential energy consumption and corresponding greenhouse gas emissions ree related papers published from 1997 to 2016 the most productive journals countries territories authors are also analyzed based on citation analysis and network analysis in addition results also revealed that behavioral analysis input output analysis life cycle assessment and cost benefit analysis are the most commonly used methods in this field results obtained from this study can provide valuable information for researchers interested in the ree related field

federal deficits and money growth in the united states a vector autoregressive analysis abstract a multivariate var modelling technique is employed in this paper to test for causality between federal deficits and money growth in the united states four alternative causality hypotheses including the common accommodation view are examined in addition to the two policy variables four other related macro variables are included in the empirical analysis namely short term interest rates prices real output and exchange rates the var results consistently reject the accommodation hypothesis and indicate that monetary and fiscal policy actions are set independently in the united states other causality inferences are also obtained and their implications are discussed

a cointegrating approach to budget deficits and long term interest rates a cointegrating approach is undertaken in this study to determine if there is a long run equilibrium relationship between budget deficits and long term interest rates for the united states and nine european countries the cointegration approach consists of conducting cointegration tests and then testing several hypothesized values for the deficit and price expectations variables the cointegration results suggest the existence of several significant cointegrating vectors for each of the ten countries which would seem to appeal to the view of budget deficits having a positive impact on long term interest rates the hypothesized values for the deficit and price expectations variables are found to be too strict since the hypotheses are rejected in every case but one

anticipated federal budget deficits monetary policy and the rate of interest in recent years a number of studies have attempted to investigate the impact of federal budget deficits on the rate of interest studies by evans 6 7 makin 13 hoelscher 9 10 barth iden and russek 2 3 dwyer 5 cebula 4 among others have analyzed this issue but have provided conflicting evidence on the impact of federal budget deficits on the rate of interest this is due in part to differences in methodology definition of budget deficit variables sample period and estimation techniques hoelscher 10 barth iden and russek 2 3 feldstein and eckstein 8 find that budget deficits affect interest rates but evans 6 7 makin 13 and hoelscher 9 conclude that budget deficits have no significant effect on interest rates the contributions of this paper are first to directly introduce within the framework of rational expectations models federal budget deficit and monetary variables this technique of analyzing the impact of deficits on interest rates may shed new light on this important issue which has not appeared in the literature second the deficit measure employed in this study is designed in a manner that it avoids being contaminated by changes in expenditures and tax receipts due to the automatic stabilizing aspects of fiscal policy third it is explicitly recognized that monetary and fiscal policies jointly interact in determining interest rates finally the policy process determining the interest rate is tested for stability over time this is important in light of evans s 6 work who finds various episodes in the u s history when budget deficits increased for a few years but had no appreciable impact on interest rates the intention in this paper is to investigate the reaction of economic agents who find that budget deficits may persist for a longer time in the future

is a military really a luxury good an international panel study of ldcs this paper introduces country specific fixed effects into a theoretical and empirical model of military expenditure contrary to the existing literature the model indicates that the share of military expenditure decreases with a country s income

an empirical analysis of federal budget deficits and interest rates directly affecting savings and loans the crisis in the savings and loan sl furthermore over the same period there were some eight years when only one federally insured sl 4 6 7 10 11 13 15 16 17 18 none of the published research has investigated the impact of the budget deficit on interest rate measures directly faced by s ls such as the cost of funds to the s ls the yield on new home mortgages at s ls or the s l mortgage portfolio yield accordingly this study investigates empirically the impact of federal budget deficits upon these interest rate measures that directly affect s ls

crowding out deficits and interest rates comment cebula s investigation along with the work of the other participants in this controversy is grounded in the is lm framework this comment utilizes the same framework to demonstrate that the amount of crowding out may be inversely related to the size of the interest rate change therefore cebula s claim that his evidence establishes a transmission mechanism for crowding out is unfounded indeed full crowding out in a simple is lm world is possible with or without increases in the interest rate at the other end of the spectrum zero crowding out can occur with or without increases in the interest rate a similar indeterminacy applies to partial crowding out scenarios the statistical significance of the relationship between deficits and the interest rate is irrelevant as far as the issue of a transmission mechanism for crowding out is concerned the appropriateness of cebula s econometric procedures is not the issue our contention is that it does not make any difference what the procedures show thus our comment applies with equal force to cebula s antagonists those who argue that a transmission mechanism does not exist because their empirical work shows no relationship between budgetary deficits and the interest rate

evaluation of the soft measures effects on ambient water quality improvement and household and industry economies abstract various ecological footprint calculators carbon footprint calculators and water footprint calculators have been developed in recent years the basic concepts of ecological behaviour record notebooks and of carbon dioxide emission calculators have been developed since the late 20th century the first carbon dioxide emission calculator was developed in 1991 likewise water pollutant discharge calculators have been developed to estimate the effects of soft measures introduced into households to reduce pollutant discharge since 2004 the soft measures which have been developed in japan may consist of a wider framework household sustainable consumption which has been developed in europe and can be referred to cleaner consumption in this research summarisation of the short history of ecological behaviour record notebooks and ecological footprint calculators in japan since the 1980s was conducted and the soft measures in households to reduce pollutant discharge were evaluated for their effects on ambient water quality improvement as well as household and industry economies effects of the soft measures on related industry economies were investigated using an input output table analysis and the effects of the imported goods were evaluated with an import effect matrix which was developed in this research the effects of the soft measures on household expenditures were estimated to be a decrease by 2 5 or usd 285 person 1 year 1 in 2003 2006 the results show that the soft measures positively affect the chemical fibre industry and significantly affect the detergent industry analysis of the import effect matrix proved that the six industries were tightly related through extensive amounts of imported goods the soft measures in households may lead to household sustainable consumption and thus reduce disadvantageous human impacts on water environments the effects of the measures introduced to improve the environment should be qualitatively and quantitatively evaluated to avoid redundant concerns and discord between the environment and the economy which may be worried when the relationship is not well understood

promoting sustainable consumption in china a conceptual framework and research review various theories and approaches have been introduced in the debate on how to address sustainable consumption in this study we first discuss different theoretical perspectives on sustainable consumption particularly developed in the fields of economics social psychology and environmental sociology we argue that neither an individualist nor a system or structural perspective alone is sufficient for understanding and analysing the transition towards sustainable consumption therefore we propose to apply the social practices approach spa that combines both human agency and social structures to understand sustainable consumption issues following the spa framework we review and summarize research on sustainable consumption in china in particular on three consumption fields food housing energy and mobility it is found that introducing more efficient production technology is commonly taken as the focal point in these sectors when sustainable consumption was introduced to china despite a rising interest in consumers perceptions of products sustainability in recent years research has rarely paid any attention to consumers behavioural change or to the transition dynamics towards sustainable consumption in general individualist perspectives have largely dominated chinese sustainable consumption research this paper proposes to move attention to a better understanding of chinese consumption issues by emphasizing the link between the provision of sustainable products and the diverse sustainable consumption practices also images of food energy mobility and other consumption products that are undergoing transitions need to be considered in future research as these have consequences for socio technical changes material infrastructures and for lifestyle innovations

examining the global environmental impact of regional consumption activities part 1 a technical note on combining input output and ecological footprint analysis in recent years there have been a number of attempts to develop a more comprehensive approach to the issue of measuring resource use and or pollution generation embodied in trade flows including contributions that combine input output techniques and ecological footprint analysis in this two part paper we describe how to enumerate the resource and or pollution content of inter regional and inter national trade flows part 1 and we present a literature review of recent methodological and empirical developments part 2 it is straightforward in principle to extend the basic input output approach to capture international trade flows however in practice problems of data availability and compatibility and of computability of extended input output matrices mean that simplifying assumptions are generally applied but with the implications of these assumptions often not made fully explicit what appears to be absent from previous applications is an account of the analytical method by which ecological footprints should ideally be estimated in an international input output accounting analysis this allows an explicit analysis of the problems that prevent the application of the full method and identification of the most appropriate short cut methods in a transparent way the objective of this paper is to provide such an account

applying input output analysis to scenario analysis of ecological footprints abstract application of input output analysis to ecological footprints efs is shifting from an ex post static calculation toward an ex ante scenario analysis for enhancing the policy relevance of ef analysis this change in application prompts two issues requiring careful examination 1 what is measured by leontief inverses or extended environmental leontief inverses and 2 whether a sector s land multiplier or compositions of land multiplier can appropriately reflect the effect of delivering one unit of the sector s output to final demand on the required area s of production lands used by the sector itself and by other producing sectors whose products are contributed directly and indirectly to its production the underlying message of these two questions is whether the assumed linear marginal relationship between a sector s output and its intermediate inputs input output coefficients a critical assumption made by w leontief to transform a transactions table from an accounting framework into the input output model can be extended to assume that the marginal relationship between a sector s output and the area of production land it uses for generating output is fixed land output marginal coefficient equal to average coefficient by reviewing the literature on input output analysis and its application to environmental issues and by theoretically and empirically examining the relation between sector output and land appropriation this study advises against the use of land multipliers or their compositions in the ef scenario analysis to apply the input output model to ef scenario analysis for enhancing policy relevance with due attention to the relationship between sector output and land appropriation this study suggests a two stage ef calculation procedure in the first stage the input output application estimates only the required raw materials or generated pollutants for meeting a given consumption pattern which is the objective of environmental input output analysis in the second stage the estimated amount of raw materials or pollutants is converted into land water area and a choice of conversion methods is suggested according to the research questions and the availability of conversion methods and required data

impact of cap and trade policies for reducing greenhouse gas emissions on u s households abstract proposals being considered by the u s congress would establish a cap and trade system to cut greenhouse gas ghg emissions approximately 2 annually through 2050 past cap and trade policies for other pollutants have distributed allowances free to the regulated companies leaving consumers uncompensated for passed through costs needed to achieve the required reductions social equity concerns were not a major issue because the total costs were relatively small however americans currently spend about 1 trillion year on energy directly and indirectly via the goods and services they consume if a cap on carbon emissions results in significant increases in energy prices social equity concerns could quickly dominate the debate over climate policy this paper confirms earlier studies that a traditional cap and trade policy is regressive and would cause the cost of reducing ghg emissions to fall disproportionately on low income households this paper explores ways to ameliorate those effects using highly disaggregated data available on consumer expenditures and energy input output analyses of the u s economy emissions are estimated based on direct and embodied energy use at the household level social equity concerns are taken into account and the consequences of cap and trade policies are assessed by quantifying the extent to which the expenditure patterns of the poor are significantly more energy intensive than those of the rich

new evidence on deficits and interest rates it is generally assumed on theoretical grounds that increases in government borrowing cause interest rates to rise 1 but empirical support for this proposition has been weak at best several recent papers have uncovered no strong relationship between deficits and short terrn interest rates however the research reported here indicates that although the relationship between deficits and short terrn interest rates may be tenuous there is strong evidence that larger deficits are associated with higher long terrn interest rates much of the debate about whether there is a strong relationship between federal borrowing and interest rates concerns the crowding out question this controversy centers on the direct and indirect eilffects of government fiscal actions on private spending these effects have been well documented in the theoretical literature e g buiter 1977 carlson and spencer 1975 blinder and solow 1973 many of the crowding out effects studied in this literature depend on the connection between government borrowing and high interest rates friedman 1978 meyer 1975 silber 1970 this is called short run indirect crowding out and may occur when increases in government spending and borrowing cause interest rates to rise which then may cause private spending to be reduced buiter 1977 pp 310 13

a structure of models for future projections of environmental pressure due to consumption abstract a model structure for constructing consumption scenarios and determining the related energy requirement of the inhabitants of the netherlands has recently been developed at the rivm consumption is considered in the model structure to be influenced by economic growth demographic changes sociocultural developments technological enhancement and policy measures the structure includes and connects several models which also operate stand alone an important model in the system is the so called central unit which has two functions 1 dealing with the consistency between income developments and microeconomic developments on household expenditure derived from the other models in the system and 2 the broader function the construction of consumption scenarios on the basis of income elasticities these elasticities relationship between income and expenditure depend on the circumstances of a household such as its size new products and prevailing standards and values in the society these circumstances change in the course of time causing the income elasticities to change as well the central unit constructs scenarios of consumption based on the influence of these circumstances on the expenditure of households in the central unit consumer activities and underlying parameters are integrated into a matrix with domains of consumption e g food housing and holidays represented by rows and means of consumption e g products and mobility by columns developments in consumption are related to direct energy use e g petrol electricity and indirect energy embedded in goods and services

alternative u s monetary and deficit reduction policies for the 1980s the authors have developed a thirty six equation econometric model to measure the effects of deficit reduction policies the model features endogenous explanations of the money stock through the federal budget constraint the price level and the capital stock and includes wealth in the consumption and money demand functions the authors conducted two groups of five simulations for the 1980 85 period the capital stock was endogenous in the first group and exogenous in the second group negative crowding in with an endogenous capital stock made deficit reduction policies without offsetting stimulus elsewhere costly supply side effects played a decisive role in the simulations copyright 1988 by ohio state university press

dynamics of final sectoral energy demand and aggregate energy intensity this paper proposes a regional and sectoral model of global final energy demand for the main end use sectors of consumption industrial commercial and public services residential and road transportation per capita demand is expressed as an s shaped function of per capita income other variables intervene as well like energy prices temperatures and technological trends this model is applied on a panel of 101 countries and 3 aggregates covering the whole world and it explains fairly well past variations in sectoral final consumption since the beginning of the 2000s further the model is used to analyze the dynamics of final energy demand by sector and in total the main conclusion concerns the pattern of change for aggregate energy intensity the simulations performed show that there is no a priori reason for it to exhibit a bell shape as reported in the literature depending on initial conditions the weight of basic needs in total consumption and the availability of modern commercial energy resources various forms might emerge

quantifying the global and distributional aspects of american household carbon footprint abstract analysis of household consumption and its environmental impact remains one of the most important topics in sustainability research nevertheless much past and recent work has focused on domestic national averages neglecting both the growing importance of international trade on household carbon footprint and the variation between households of different income levels and demographics using consumer expenditure surveys and multi country life cycle assessment techniques this paper analyzes the global and distributional aspects of american household carbon footprint we find that due to recently increased international trade 30 of total us household co 2 impact in 2004 occurred outside the us further households vary considerably in their co 2 responsibilities at least a factor of ten difference exists between low and high impact households with total household income and expenditure being the best predictors of both domestic and international portions of the total co 2 impact the global location of emissions which cannot be calculated using standard input output analysis and the variation of household impacts with income have important ramifications for polices designed to lower consumer impacts on climate change such as carbon taxes the effectiveness and fairness of such policies hinges on a proper understanding of how income distributions rebound effects and international trade affect them

fiscal deficits and long term interest rates further evidence from annual data much debate has recently centered on the popular view that large u s budget deficits financed by the sale of bonds cause high interest rates if valid this view implies that deficits crowd out efficient private investment and adversely affect economic growth however bailey 2 and barro 3 have challenged this conventional view on theoretical grounds based on the ricardian equivalence proposition bailey and barro contend that rational economic agents interpret government deficits as postponed tax liabilities and thus will have no effects on private wealth or interest rates such theoretical ambiguity in regards to the impact of budget deficits has also been matched by an equally conflicting empirical evidence for example barth iden and russek 4 deleeuw and holloway 8 hutchison and pyle 20 makin 24 makin and tanzi 25 and zahid 35 have found a positive and significant effect of deficits on interest rates on the other hand evans 11 12 13 hoelscher 17 motley 28 and plosser 29 30 have all failed to find any systematic support for a significant positive impact of deficits on interest rates it should be observed that the above empirical studies have employed either monthly or quarterly data however some researchers e g hoelscher 18 have recently charged that monthly or quarterly data bias the results in favor of finding no significant linkage between deficits and interest rates they reasoned that portfolio adjustment lags are too long for monthly or even quarterly observations to reflect the actual correlation between deficits and interest rates to eliminate this problem of periodicity annual data was instead advocated 2 using annual data hoelscher 18 concluded that deficits have caused positive and significant changes in long term interest rates in the united states

analyzing the impacts of carbon regulatory mechanisms on supplier and mode selection decisions an application to a biofuel supply chain this paper analyzes the impacts of carbon regulatory mechanisms on replenishment decisions in a biofuel supply chain we employ mathematical models for operations which integrate replenishment and supplier transportation mode selection decisions these models explicitly account for carbon emissions that may result from transportation and inventory storage activities this research is motivated by observations indicating that nearly 19 of the energy consumption and 25 of the energy related carbon dioxide emissions worldwide arise from transportation because freight transportation is expected to continue to grow we consider the impacts of different carbon regulatory mechanisms on transportation and inventory replenishment decisions in a biofuel supply chain a set of extensive numerical experiments uses the biofuel supply chain context to analyze the impacts of different regulatory mechanisms including carbon cap carbon tax carbon cap and trade and carbon offset on performance we use existing methodologies to calculate emissions as a function of distance traveled load weight and transportation mode used we also use publicly available data to derive representative biomass transportation costs as a consequence our numerical results are meaningful and give a realistic representation of the relationships between emissions from different transportation modes and the resulting costs the results of our computational experiments indicate that carbon regulatory mechanisms have a non trivial impact on replenishment schedules and as a consequence costs and emissions in the supply chain

budget deficits short term real interest rates and the specification of expected inflation an empirical investigation the purpose of this paper is to illustrate whether empirical estimates of the effects of budget deficits on short term real interest rates are sensitive to the choice of the expected inflation variable survey data on expected inflation and the rational expectations method described by mishkin 1981 are used to construct two measures of the short term real interest rate results for two previous studies on this deficit interest rate relationship are re estimated using these measures of expected inflation and the interest rate variables additional results reported in this paper further indicate that empirical estimates of the interest rate effects of budget deficits are sensitive to the choice of the expected inflation variable in addition to the choice of the inflation variable a number of other robustness tests are included we are able to conclude that 1 increases in budget deficits do not generally raise short term real interest rates and 2 short term real interest rates are not independent of