the impacts of tourism energy consumption and political instability on economic growth in the mena countries using panel data of 24 countries in the middle east and north african mena region from 2001 to 2009 the purpose of this study is to examine the impacts of tourism energy consumption and political instability on economic growth within the neoclassical growth framework to address the objective of this study we utilise both the static panel data approach as well as the dynamic generalised method of moments gmm estimator to examine the impact of candidate variables our results show that energy consumption and tourism significantly contribute to the economic growth of countries in the mena region hence our study lends some support to the existence of the tourism led growth and energy led growth hypotheses in the region in line with our expectation our estimation results also reveal that political instability impedes the process of economic growth and development in the mena region therefore macroeconomic policies to promote expansion in tourism and energy consumption will directly stimulate economic growth additionally efforts to help the region overcome its history of political instability would attract more international tourist arrivals and further invigorate economic growth

a model for multiple brand choice abstract this paper considers a simultaneous choice model that describes consumer selection of multiple brands the proposed model considerably extends research possibilities in the demand area by relaxing the restrictive assumption of mutually exclusive alternatives which characterizes multinomial discrete choice methods an essential contribution lies in the explicit treatment of stochastic dependencies among latent brand utilities two empirical applications illustrate how the model determines brand demand functions and yields quantitative insights into the competitive structure of the examined markets an alternative specification of the multivariate simultaneous probit model assuming independent covariance structure is also addressed

tourism as a long run economic growth factor the spanish case this paper examines the role of tourism in the spanish long run economic development the tourism led growth hypothesis is confirmed through cointegration and causality testing the results indicate that at least during the last three decades economic growth in spain has been sensible to persistent expansion of international tourism the increase of this activity has produced multiplier effects over time external competitivity has also been proved in the model to be a fundamental variable for spanish economic growth from the empirical analysis it can be inferred the positive effects on income that government policy in the adequacy of supply as well as in the promotion of tourist activity may bring about

revisiting the tourism led growth hypothesis for turkey using the bounds test and johansen approach for cointegration abstract this paper empirically revisits and investigates the tourism led growth tlg hypothesis in the case of turkey by employing the bounds test and johansen approach for cointegration using annual data from 1960 2006 although gunduz and hatemi j 2005 is the tourism led growth hypothesis valid for turkey applied economics letters 12 499 504 support the tlg hypothesis for turkey suggesting unidirectional causation from tourism to economic growth by making use of the leveraged bootstrap causality tests and ongan and demiroz 2005 the contribution of tourism to the long run turkish economic growth ekonomick casopis journal of economics 53 9 880 894 suggest bidirectional causality between international tourism and economic growth in turkey this study does not find any cointegration between international tourism and economic growth in turkey therefore unlike the findings of gunduz and hatemi j 2005 and ongan and demiroz 2005 this study rejects the tlg hypothesis for the turkish economy since no cointegration was found and error correction mechanisms plus causality tests cannot be run for further steps in the long term

the contribution of tourism development to economic growth in the korean economy abstract this study investigates the causal relations between tourism growth and economic expansion for the korean economy by using engle and granger two stage approach and a bivariate vector autoregression var model two principle results emerge from this study first the results of a cointegration test indicate that there is no long run equilibrium relation between two series second the outcomes of granger causality test imply the one way causal relationship of economic driven tourism growth the hypothesis of tourism led economic growth is not held in the korean economy this consequence is supported by testing the sensitivity of causality test under different lag selections along with the optimal lag

time series forecasts of international travel demand for australia abstract this paper analyses stationary and non stationary international tourism time series data by formally testing for the presence of unit roots and seasonal unit roots prior to estimation model selection and forecasting various box jenkins autoregressive integrated moving average arima models are estimated over the period 1975 1 1989 4 for tourist arrivals to australia from hong kong malaysia and singapore the mean absolute percentage error and root mean squared error rmse are used as measures of forecast accuracy as the best fitting arima model is found to have the lowest rmse this model is used to obtain post sample forecasts tourist arrivals data for 1990 1 1996 4 are compared with the forecast performance of the arima model for each origin market the fitted arima model forecasts tourist arrivals from singapore for the period 1990 1 1996 4 very well although the arima model outperforms the seasonal arima models for hong kong and malaysia the forecasts of tourist arrivals are not as accurate as in the case of singapore

a compact econometric model of tourism demand for turkey abstract this study examines the relationship between tourism demand for turkey and national income of the tourist generating country at constant prices and relative prices prices in the host country divided by prices in tourist generating country in determining the relationship a double logarithmic functional form of the regression model is used taking the period 1980 1993 as the base of the study 18 countries which constitute an important percentage of tourism demand in turkey have been chosen in general the results indicate a positive relationship between tourists arrivals and national income of tourist generating countries and a negative relationship between tourist arrivals and relative prices

electricity supply employment and real gdp in india evidence from cointegration and granger causality tests abstract this study probes nexus between electricity supply employment and real gdp for india within a multivariate framework using autoregressive distributed lag ardl bounds testing approach of cointegration long run equilibrium relationship has been established among these variables for the time span 1970 71 to 2005 06 the study further establishes long and short run granger causality running from real gdp and electricity supply to employment without any feedback effect thus growth in real gdp and electricity supply are responsible for the high level of employment in india the absence of causality running from electricity supply to real gdp implies that electricity demand and supply side measures can be adopted to reduce the wastage of electricity which would not affect future economic growth of india

the nested consideration model investigating dynamic store consideration sets and store competition the nested logit model has been widely used to study nested choice a typical example of such nested choice is store patronage and brand choice an important limitation of the nested logit model is that it assumes that all alternatives at both levels of the nest are available in the choice set of the consumer while there is a wide literature on the incorporation of restricted choice sets into the logit model the logical extension of this analysis to nested restricted choice sets has not been pursued in the literature in this study we develop a nested consideration model that integrates store choice and brand choice incorporating the formation of dynamic restricted choice sets of both stores and brands we term the model the nested consideration model and derive the related probabilities in a manner analogous to the well known nested logit model in an empirical illustration we find that the nested consideration model shows better prediction than nested logit models with the same explanatory variables we find that it is important to account for dynamic store consideration sets rather than static sets or store loyalty measures we also conduct simulations to demonstrate the importance of the nested consideration set model for correct pricing and store location decisions of business managers

the triumph of monetarism the story of 20th century macroeconomics begins with irving fisher in his books appreciation and interest 1896 the rate of interest 1907 and the purchasing power of money 1911 fisher fueled the intellectual fire that became known as monetarism but what has happened to monetarism at the end of the 20th century the short answer is that much of this current of thought is still there but its insights pass under another name we may not all be keynesians now but the influence of monetarism on how we all think about macroeconomics today has been deep pervasive and subtle why then do we today talk much more about the new keynesian economists than about the new monetarist economists i believe that to answer this question we need to look at the history of monetarism over the 20th century one fruitful way to look at the history of monetarism is to distinguish between four different variants or subspecies of monetarism that emerged and for a time flourished in the century just past first monetarism old chicago monetarism high monetarism and political monetarism

tourism demand and economic growth in spain new insights based on the yield curve abstract this study examines for the first time the dynamic relationship between tourism growth and expected macroeconomic conditions of the destination country using a dcc garch model the focus is on the spanish economy in which monthly tourist arrivals data from 1998 to 2017 were collected for five key origin countries and around the world to capture expected macroeconomic conditions the spanish term structure of interest rates is used the results suggest that the tourism expected economic growth relationship is time varying without any country specific differences in the behaviour of the correlations importantly positive correlations reportedly coincides with a regime shift in the spanish economy whereas negative correlations are evident when expected economic conditions are stable it is also shown that the aforementioned relationship is influenced by key geopolitical and economic events the 9 11 terrorist attacks global financial crisis and the ecb s quantitative easing programme finally policy implications derived from the main findings are discussed

are australia s tourism markets converging in this paper we make an important contribution towards understanding australia s tourism industry by examining whether or not australia s tourism markets are converging we define convergence as the reduction in tourist arrivals differential which is calculated as the difference between total visitor arrivals to a country and visitor arrivals from a particular tourist source market we analyze australia s thirteen major tourist source markets using monthly data over the period january 1991 to september 2003 to test for convergence we use the univariate and panel lagrange multiplier lm tests our main finding is that when we allow for two structural breaks in the data series both univariate and panel lm tests provide strong evidence for convergence of australia s tourism markets this implies that policies aimed at attracting visitor arrivals from any one of australia s thirteen tourist source markets will boost the volume of tourists coming into the country

does tourism effectively stimulate malaysia s economic growth abstract this study attempts to further verify the validity of the tourism led growth hypothesis in malaysia using a multivariate model derived from the solow growth theory it employs annual data from 1975 to 2011 we find that economic growth tourism and other determinants are cointegrated specifically tourism has a positive impact on malaysia s economic growth both in the short run and in the long run the granger causality test indicates that tourism granger causes economic growth all this provides the empirical support for the tourism led growth hypothesis in malaysia in light of this any policy initiative that promotes tourism could contribute to malaysia s economic growth

an empirical study of outbound tourism demand in the uk a general to specific methodology is used to construct uk demand for outbound tourism models to twelve destinations a tourism destination preference index is introduced to take into account social cultural and psychological influences on tourists decisions concerning their overseas holiday destinations the tests support the existence of a cointegration relationship for each of 11 uk overseas holiday destinations the corresponding error correction models are estimated the empirical results show that the long run income elasticities for all destinations range from 1 70 to 3 90 with an average of 2 367 the lowest and highest short run income elasticities are 1 05 and 3 78 respectively with an average of 2 216 the estimates of the income elasticities imply that overseas holidays are highly income elastic while the own price elasticities suggest that the demand for uk outbound tourism is relatively own price inelastic in terms of the significance of substitution prices in the regression equations ir

time varying linkages between tourism receipts and economic growth in south africa the causal link between tourism receipts and gdp has recently become a major focus in the tourism economics literature results obtained in recent studies about the causal link appear to be sensitive with respect to the countries analysed sample period and methodology employed considering the sensitivity of the causal link we use rolling window and time varying coefficient estimation methods to analyse the parameter stability and granger causality based on a vector error correction model vecm when applied to south africa for the period 1960 2011 the findings are as follows results from the full sample vecm indicate that there is no granger causality between tourism receipts and gdp while the findings from the time varying coefficients model based on the state space representation show that tourism receipts have positive predictive content for gdp for the entire period with the exception of the period between 1985 and 1990 full sample time varying causality tests show bidirectional strong causal

does urbanization lead to more direct and indirect household carbon dioxide emissions evidence from china during 1996 2012 china is experiencing a stage of rapid urban development the energy consumption and related carbon dioxide emissions of households continue to increase this paper calculates direct and indirect carbon dioxide emissions of households based on the input output method in china from 1996 to 2012 the results reveal that there were more total carbon dioxide emissions from urban households than from rural households far more indirect emissions from urban households than from rural households slightly more direct emissions from urban households than from rural households and differences in direct carbon dioxide emissions from various fuels and in indirect emissions from various sectors between urban and rural households to examine the causal relationship between urbanization and the carbon dioxide emissions of households cointegration and granger causality tests are applied a unidirectional causal relation was found running from urbanization to both direct and indirect household carbon dioxide emissions and the direct and indirect carbon dioxide emissions of households would increase 2 9 and 1 1 respectively for every increase of one percent in urbanization we discuss the reasons of why the development of urbanization will lead to more household direct and indirect carbon dioxide emissions and suggest certain policy implications for urbanization and carbon dioxide emissions based on the results of this study

tourism led growth hypothesis in the top ten tourist destinations new evidence using the quantile on quantile approach this paper examines the empirical validity of the tourism led growth hypothesis in the top ten tourist destinations in the world china france germany italy mexico russia spain turkey the united kingdom and the united states using the quantile on quantile qq approach and a new index of tourism activity that combines the most commonly used tourism indicators this methodology recently introduced by sim and zhou 2015 provides an ideal framework with which to capture the overall dependence structure between tourism development and economic growth the empirical results primarily show a positive relation between tourism and economic growth for the ten countries considered with substantial variations across countries and across quantiles within each country the weakest links are noted for china and germany possibly because of the limited importance of the tourism sector relative to other major economic activities in those countries important country specific policy implications may be drawn from these findings

cointegration analysis of quarterly tourism demand by hong kong and singapore for australia hong kong and singapore are two of the most important and fastest growing markets for tourists to australia the purpose of this paper is to investigate movements in the long run demand for tourist travel by these two origin countries for australia some of the leading macroeconomic variables examined to explain tourism demand are incomes in hong kong and singapore tourism prices in australia and transportation costs and exchange rates between the two countries and australia seasonally unadjusted quarterly data are used for hong kong for the period 1975 1 1996 4 and for 1980 4 1996 4 for singapore several proxy variables are used for the incomes of tourists from hong kong and singapore to explain quarterly tourist arrivals to australia the augmented dickey fuller test for unit roots is examined in the univariate framework and johansen s maximum likelihood procedure is used to test for cointegration and to estimate the number of cointegrating vectors error correction models are estimated to exp

natural gas consumption and economic growth are we ready to natural gas price liberalization in iran this paper examines the relationship between natural gas consumption and economic growth in iran within a multivariate production model we also investigate the effects of natural gas price on its consumption and economic growth using a demand side model the paper employs bounds test approach to level relationship over the period of 1972 007 we find evidence of bidirectional positive relationship between natural gas consumption and economic growth in short run and long run based on the production model the findings also suggest that real gdp growth and natural gas have positive and negative impacts on gross fixed capital formation respectively employment however was found to have negative but insignificant impact on gross fixed capital formation moreover the estimation results of demand side model suggest that natural gas price has negative and significant impact on natural gas consumption only in the long run though there is insignificant impact on economic growth these results imply that the iranian government s decision for natural gas price liberalization has the adverse effects on economic growth and policy makers should be cautious in doing this policy

keynesian and monetarist theories of the monetary transmission process doctrinal aspects abstract this paper investigates the doctrinal link underlying differences between keynesian and monetarist approaches regarding the transmission mechanism of monetary policy consideration of the post general theory literature reveals that a key aspect of that link concerns the velocity of circulation of money the keynesian emphasis on compartmentalizing the demand for money into active and idle components resulted in a mechanical interpretation of velocity and the associated view that money does not matter the monetarist tradition illustrates the behavioral perspective adduced to velocity via adaptive price expectations by earlier quantity theorists leading to a capital theoretic reformulation of the quantity theory in terms of a stable demand function for money

agricultural product development using multidimensional and multicriteria analyses the case of wine abstract multicriteria analysis and multidimensional statistical methods can collaborate and offer new prospects in the fields of decision support and management in general this paper presents a survey based methodology which combines a multicriteria model for the consumer s preference analysis as well as classical data analysis models to design agricultural products the new products are developed in such a way that they eventually achieve the maximum possible market share a real study for the athenian wine market is presented for illustration the paper concludes with some further reccomendations

assessing the importance of international tourism for the turkish economy a social accounting matrix analysis abstract the international tourism sector has grown rapidly in turkey since the 1980s and turkey ranks among the top ten countries in terms of tourist arrivals and receipts previous studies on international tourism in turkey are partial equilibrium studies which emphasized the importance of the sector for foreign exchange earnings employment creation and economic growth the social accounting matrix sam modeling approach is superior to partial equilibrium analysis as it takes into account intersectoral linkages this paper analyzes the contribution of international tourism to the turkish economy using two sams for 1996 and 2002 respectively two analyses are conducted using the sam impact model i sectoral comparison of gdp elasticities and ii sam impact analysis of international tourism on output value added and employment the results show that the gdp elasticity of international tourism is relatively low and the impact of foreign tourist expenditures on domestic production value added gdp and employment in turkey are modest the results imply the possibility of leakage of foreign tourist expenditures out of the economy

chicago harvard and the doctrinal foundations of monetary economics the relationship between milton friedman s monetary economics and the views espoused by chicago and non chicago quantity theorists during the years 1930 36 is examined contrary to recent interpretations chicago economists advanced the efficacy of monetary policy as the means of escaping from the great depression provided that such a policy was implemented by the use of budget deficits to generate monetary expansion the use of the quantity theory of money to provide a theoretical rationale for budget deficits distinguished the chicago economists from other quantity theorists and left them less susceptible to the keynesian revolution the claim that harvard was an important center for monetary research in the early 1930s is refuted

interactions between energy and imports in singapore empirical evidence from conditional error correction models this study empirically tests for long run equilibrium relationship and the direction of causality between imports and energy consumption in singapore the results of the present study reveal that a long run equilibrium relationship exists between import growth and energy consumption growth in singapore by using bivariate systems imports of singapore converge to long term equilibrium levels by 79 9 percent speed of adjustment through the channel of energy growth furthermore the major finding of this study is that there are long and short term undirectional causalities that run from energy growth to import growth in singapore which denote that energy consumption in singapore is a catalyst for importing

how friedman and schwartz became monetarists during the late 1940s and the early 1950s milton friedman favored a rule under which fiscal policy would be used to generate changes in the money supply with the aim of stabilizing output at full employment he believed that the economy is inherently unstable because of endogenous movements in money supply under a fractional reserve banking system in her work anna schwartz downplayed the role of monetary factors in business cycles and the role of monetary policy as a stabilization tool we show how the joint work of friedman and schwartz from 1948 to 1958 led friedman to view money as the primary mover of the business cycle and underpinned his shift to a rule based on money growth so that discretionary monetary policy would not act as a source of destabilizing shocks the decisive factor in the evolution of friedman s thinking was the empirical confirmation that the great depression had been both initiated and deepened by the fed the largely neglected influence of clark warburton on the evolution of friedman s thinking provides a missing but crucial link in explaining friedman s recognition of the role of monetary factors in the great depression and of the fed s ability to offset the destabilizing effects produced by shifts from deposits into currency under a fractional reserve banking system

quality and endogenous tourism an empirical approach abstract we propose a theoretical model and an empirical study that highlight the role of quality of tourism services and endogenous tourism in long run economic growth we study a theoretical growth model of international trade where tourism is the growth engine and quality of tourism services has a positive impact on long term growth we also provide an empirical analysis to test the relation between tourism quality and economic growth in spain over the period 1970 2010 our results show that in the long run tourist arrivals quality of tourism accommodations and foreign gdp have a positive effect on spanish gdp in the short term changes in economic growth appear to lead to growth in tourist arrivals our findings support a two way causal relationship between real gdp growth and tourism growth in spain

revisiting the convergence hypothesis for tourism markets evidence from turkey using the pairwise approach abstract this paper empirically revisits the tourism markets convergence hypothesis narayan 2006 for the case of turkey by employing the newly developed pairwise approach to the analysis of stochastic convergence pesaran 2007 pesaran et al 2009 this new approach allows for unit root tests to be conducted on all possible pairs of tourist arrival differentials across turkey s 20 major tourist source markets thus avoiding the need to choose a base source market or total tourist arrivals figure as the benchmark using monthly data over the period january 1996 to december 2009 the main finding is that despite considerable co movement of international tourist arrivals in turkey there is no evidence of long run convergence among turkey s major tourism markets cluster based club convergence analyses alongside bivariate pairwise estimations confirm the lack of convergence and highlight specific tourist source markets with considerable untapped potential these findings have profound policy implications for turkey s inbound tourism planning and promotion

is the tourism economic growth nexus time varying bootstrap rolling window causality analysis for the top 10 tourist destinations this article explores the time varying causal nexus between tourism development and economic growth for the top 10 tourist destinations in the world namely china france germany italy mexico t

the long run impact of exchange rate regimes on international tourism flows abstract notwithstanding the systematic inclusion of an exchange rate variable of some form in studies examining international tourism flows hardly any research has been carried out to test for a possible exchange rate regime effect drawing from recent advances in exchange rate regime classifications this paper begins to fill this gap by investigating the impact of exchange rate regimes on international tourism flows the study employs a system generalized methods of moments sys gmm estimation for tourist arrivals on a panel of 27 organization for economic co operation and development oecd and non oecd countries for the period 1980 2011 the results identify multiple exchange rate regime effects and support the importance of maintaining a relatively stable exchange rate to attract international tourist arrivals

international tourism higher education and economic growth the case of north cyprus this study investigates the long run equilibrium relationship between international tourism higher education growth real income growth and the direction of causality among these variables for the turkish republic of northern cyprus which is not recognised by any country other than turkey results reveal that international tourism and higher education are in a long run equilibrium relationship with real income growth international tourism and higher education have an inelastic yet positively significant impact on real income growth in the long run period finally the results of the present study reveal that both the tourism led growth and the higher education led growth hypotheses are confirmed for north cyprus

examining carbon emissions economic growth nexus for india a multivariate cointegration approach abstract the study probes cointegration and causality between carbon emissions and economic growth for india using ardl bounds testing approach complemented by johansen juselius maximum likelihood procedure in a multivariate framework by incorporating energy supply investment and employment for time span 1971 2006 the study fails to establish long run equilibrium relationship and long term causality between carbon emissions and economic growth however there exists a bi directional short run causality between the two hence in the short run any effort to reduce carbon emissions could lead to a fall in the national income this study also establishes unidirectional short run causality running from economic growth to energy supply and energy supply to carbon emissions the absence of causality running from energy supply to economic growth implies that in india energy conservation and energy efficiency measures can be implemented to minimize the wastage of energy across value chain such measures would narrow energy demand supply gap absence of long run causality between carbon emissions and economic growth implies that in the long run focus should be given on harnessing energy from clean sources to curb carbon emissions which would not affect the country s economic growth

determinants of demand for international tourist flows to turkey abstract this article describes the development and findings of a set of models used to identify the most important of the following selected variables influencing international tourist flows to turkey per capita income relative prices relative exchange rate promotional expenditure the turkish government has invested a substantial amount in promoting foreign tourism and special events eg political unrest the demand for travel was measured both by the number of tourists and by the total tourist expenditure data were obtained from secondary sources and analysis was by least squares multiple regression income price and exchange rate were found to be important factors but the impact of promotional expenditure was minimal

oil prices tourism income and economic growth a structural var approach for european mediterranean countries abstract in this study a structural var model is employed to investigate the relationship among oil price shocks tourism variables and economic indicators in four european mediterranean countries in contrast with the current tourism literature we distinguish between three oil price shocks namely supply side aggregate demand and oil specific demand shocks overall our results indicate that oil specific demand shocks contemporaneously affect inflation and the tourism sector equity index whereas these shocks do not seem to have any lagged effects by contrast aggregate demand oil price shocks exercise a lagged effect either directly or indirectly to tourism generated income and economic growth the paper does not provide any evidence that supply side shocks trigger any responses from the remaining variables results are important for tourism agents and policy makers should they need to create hedging strategies against future oil price movements or plan for economic policy developments

international tourism energy consumption and environmental pollution the case of turkey abstract this study investigates the long run equilibrium relationship between tourism energy consumption and environmental degradation as proxied by carbon dioxide co 2 emissions in turkey which attracts more than 30 million tourists per year making it the sixth most visited country in the world the study results reveal that tourism and energy consumption are in a long term equilibrium relationship with co 2 emissions in the tourism induced model co 2 emissions converge to the long term equilibrium path by a 91 01 percent speed of adjustment every year through the channels of tourism energy consumption and aggregate income further the results of the impulse response and variance decompositions reveal that the reaction of energy consumption and therefore co 2 emissions to changes in tourism development is positive and gains strength in the longer periods this implies that tourism development in turkey has resulted not only in considerable increases in energy use but also considerable increases in climate change as demonstrated by the econometric analysis of this study

effects of tourism on regional asymmetries empirical evidence for portugal abstract this study uses a vector autoregressive approach to estimate the regional effects of tourism in portugal with the ultimate objective of assessing tourism s role in reducing regional asymmetries we identify the locations where tourism generates higher effects for each region as well as the regions where tourism generates the strongest effects on the country s economic performance this issue is of particular interest from the side of the country s authorities since tourism is a strategic sector to promote national and regional convergence the study s findings suggest that tourism has contributed to the concentration of economic activity in the largest region of the country and to reduce the gap between the second and the third largest regions some regions benefit more from tourism located in other regions than tourism located in each region and tourism in all regions generate positive effects on the country s economic performance

an applied analysis of brand demand structure the demand literature is concerned with the optimal allocation of expenditure at varied but usually high levels of commodity aggregation much less aggregation however is required for business applications in applied business settings interest centres upon the different brands of the same commodity because policy formulation takes place at the level of the individual brand this paper considers application of formal demand analysis to brand demand data a theoretically plausible demand system is invoked to describe inter brand allocation of expenditure test restrictions imposed by economic theory and yield empirically determined insights into brand demand structure

milton friedman s monetary economics and the quantity theory tradition abstract this article provides a selective review of milton friedman s contributions to monetary economics focusing on five areas in particular the demand for money the joint historical and empirical work with anna j schwartz the theoretical and empirical analyses of the phillips curve monetary policy and monetary dynamics

is tourism an engine for economic recovery theory and empirical evidence abstract the purpose of this study is to examine the causal relationships between tourism development and economic growth for this purpose the dumitrescu and hurlin 2012 technique was employed to analyze the casual link between tourism development and economic growth in seven european countries the results showed that there is bidirectional causality between growth in tourism receipts and economic growth suggesting that economic growth and tourism development are interdependent and that tourism development stimulates economic growth and vice versa in these countries theoretical and practical implications are discussed within the realms of growth conservation feedback and neutrality hypotheses

was the monetarist tradition invented in 1969 harry johnson charged that milton friedman invented a chicago oral quantity theory tradition the idea being that in order to launch a monetarist counter revolution friedman needed to establish a linkage with pre keynesian orthodoxy this paper shows that there was a distinct pre keynesian chicago quantity theory tradition that advocated increased government expenditure during the great depression in order to put money directly into circulation this policy stance distinguished the chicago economists from other quantity theorists leaving them less susceptible to the keynesian revolution those who have been critical of friedman s claim that his work derives from the earlier chicago tradition have focused exclusively on friedman s long run empirical specification of money demand friedman s cyclical analysis is shown to be very much in the chicago tradition other connections between friedman s views and the chicago tradition are also discussed

in old chicago simons friedman and the development of monetary policy rules this paper examines the different policy rules proposed by henry simons who beginning in the mid 1930s advocated a price level stabilization rule and by milton friedman who beginning in the late 1950s advocated a rule that targeted a constant growth rate of the money supply although both rules shared the objective of eliminating the policy uncertainty emanating from discretion they differed because of the different views of simons and friedman about the stability of secular relationships simons rule relates to modern rules that emphasize the pursuit of price stability as representing optimal monetary policy

exploring the regional distribution of tourism and the extent to which there is convergence abstract in this paper we test the hypothesis of convergence in a set of twelve of the main tourism source markets of spain over a time period that ranges from january 2000 to september 2015 we analyse the potential convergence by following an econometric strategy consisting of three different methodologies firstly we test for the presence of full convergence in the dataset by means of the panel stationary test developed by hadri 2000 next we conduct a robustness check for the full convergence hypothesis by considering the potential existence of structural breaks in the dataset through the test proposed by carrion i silvestre et al 2005 finally the hypothesis of club convergence philips and sul 2007 is also tested the results point to absence of full convergence even when controlling for structural breaks while three different clubs of convergence are found we discuss potential policy implications that can be extracted from these results

growth effects of leisure tourism and the level of economic development abstractthis study examines 1 whether leisure tourism can contribute to economic growth and 2 if it does whether its growth effects are constant across levels of economic development leisure tourism differs from business tourism in the causal relation with economic growth in addition the natural and heritage related resources for leisure tourism are limited and not reproducible this notion has a significant implication for the relationship between the growth effects of leisure tourism and the level of economic development thus the current study focuses on leisure tourism and controls for the effects of business tourism as an economy grows the growth effects of leisure tourism are expected to diminish due to a lack of continued productivity improvement in the tourism industry the empirical findings in this research reveal that leisure tourism contributes to economic growth at an early stage of economic development but its contribution becomes weaker as the economy develops

stationarity of health expenditures and gdp evidence from panel unit root tests with heterogeneous structural breaks this paper re examines the stationarity of national health care expenditures and gdp in a panel setting utilizing data from 20 oecd countries over the period from 1960 to 1997 previous research in this area has recognized the drawback of not allowing for structural breaks in their unit root tests and noted that their empirical results may not be robust we advance the literature by utilizing a recently developed panel lm unit root test that allows for heterogeneous level shifts in contrast to previous analyses that did not consider breaks our results reject the unit root null hypothesis for both series