meta paradigm change and the theory of the firm many seemingly unrelated debates on the theory of the firm are in fact part of a single deeper transformation of the social sciences as the foundational assumptions of 20th century social science have slowly been shown by science to be false new sub paradigms have emerged which cumulatively drop i theoretical assumptions about markets to explain firms ii epistemological assumptions about knowledge to explain diversity and iii metaphysical assumptions about causality to explain technical change debates occur across each of these levels

common trends the government s budget constraint and revenue smoothing abstract the requirement that the government s budget be balanced in present value terms is shown to be equivalent to the condition that government expenditures inclusive of interest tax receipts and seignorage be cointegrated the condition is in fact stronger requiring that the deficit inclusive of interest be stationary stationarity of the net of interest deficit is neither necessary nor sufficient for intertemporal budget balance however it does have implications for barro s tax smoothing hypothesis data for the period 1890 1986 are consistent with intertemporal budget balance but not with tax smoothing

life cycle carbon emission flow analysis for electricity supply system a case study of china abstract the carbon emission embodied in trade is fundamental for allocation of responsibility between producers and consumers this paper quantitatively analyzes embodied carbon emissions along the life cycle of electricity supply based on network theory a modified carbon emission flow model is established based on life cycle assessment considering power losses there is also a case study of china s interregional electricity supply system in 2010 focusing on two carbon emission carriers electricity coal transportation and electricity transmission results show that the total carbon emission flow reached 169 355 mtco 2 eq i e 4 67 of the life cycle carbon emission of this 61 1 was carried by electricity coal transportation before power generation and transmission owing to an uneven distribution of coal resources the eastern and southern regions are the major net sinks of carbon emission flows representing 52 9 and 27 8 of the total respectively because of their enormous energy imports in contrast the sanxi region and central china are major net sources of carbon emission flow the proposed model may help allocate environmental responsibility among different regions to guarantee balanced trans regional development

characterizing the technology firm an exploratory study abstract technology firms occupy a central position in modern economies they drive economic growth productivity gains and have created new industries and innovative products many will agree that technology firms are distinguished from others in their emphasis on technological activities since this observation is too general researchers suggested a variety of specific criteria and definitions a number of definitions of technology firms appear in the literature but many are arbitrary and simplistic and none gained wide acceptance similarly the number of characteristics suggested is large reflecting a variety of perspectives and interests in this case too no agreement exists as to which are the important ones also many seem to be interrelated capturing different aspects of the same underlying concepts this paper is concerned with the issue of definition and classification of technology firms we demonstrate the usefulness of a different approach to the definition and classification problem we rely on executives evaluations of their firms technology profile and level an analysis of these evaluations reveals the underlying dimensions the executives used in making their judgments we regard the dimensions we uncover as capturing the essence of technology firms and use them to classify the firms we study the specific characteristics the executives used to evaluate their firms were derived from a systematic scan of the literature thus the list represents the set of characteristics early researchers viewed as describing and defining technology firms the connection to early work enhances our findings validity and lends some credence to our belief that the three dimensions we uncover r d activities which are closely associated with a set of organizational elements and market conditions product strategy and corporate culture can be used by others to define technology firms and classify firms according to their technology level in our study we use these three dimensions to classify the firms studied we show that the commonly used practice of classifying firms as high and low technology according to the industry to which they belong is flawed our goal in this study is not to offer a new or better definition and characterization of technology firms or to offer the best approach to the generation of the classification criteria rather we demonstrate here the usefulness of a different approach to the problem while our approach does suffer from limitations it has important advantages we hope future studies will confirm not only the usefulness of our approach but also the general applicability of the specific criteria we identify in this study

an evolutionary approach to technological innovation in agriculture some preliminary remarks abstract this article proposes an interpretation of the process of technological innovation in agriculture we begin with a criticism to the idea of agriculture as a particular environment in economic analysis we argue that some dynamic concepts from economics of innovation especially as seen by the evolutionary literature can be used as an adequate theoretical reference to study innovation in agriculture we then suggest an interpretation in terms of technological trajectories in order to explain the complexity of the technological regime in agriculture finally we discuss the present stage of transformation in this technological regime and the perspectives of the arising new trajectories

the ricardian equivalence hypothesis evidence from bangladesh this article examines the ricardian equivalence hypothesis reh and its sources of failure in the case of bangladesh using various theoretical specifications annual data from 1974 2001 and linear and nonlinear time series techniques the general findings tend to invalidate the reh a finite time horizon and the presence of liquidity constrained individuals are the sources of deviation from the reh empirical results reveal that real per capita private consumption c under various specifications is cointegrated generally at the 5 level with real per capita income y government expenditure before and after interest rate repayments g and g2 taxes t and the interest rate r results reveal that an increase in g g2 t and r reduces c and that an increase in budget deficits raises trade deficits these results highlight the importance of fiscal policies in boosting private consumption and controlling trade deficits which are the prime goals of stabilization policies being followed by bangladesh

uncertainty and the neutrality of government financing policy abstract some ideas from the theory of finance are applied to consider whether debt financed tax cuts affect desired consumption it is shown that government financing policy is a matter of indifference to infinitely lived households if a perfect substitute for public debt exists the analysis allows for uncertainty about future taxes and for missing markets in some kinds of assets income redistribution risk and the public insurance aspects of an income tax scheme qualify this neutrality result but in general the net effect is ambiguous the real resource costs of financial transacting as well as government superiority in the intermediation process may be one rationale for activist debt management policy a better understanding of functioning capital markets is essential to evaluate these arguments

gradual catch up and enduring leadership in the global wine industry the wine industry is an extremely interesting sector from a catch up point of view because the latecomers in the international market have changed how wine is produced sold and consumed and in doing so they have challenged the positions of incumbents until the end of the 1980s the european countries and particularly france and italy dominated the international market for wine subsequently significant changes in the market namely decreases in consumption by traditional consuming countries the entry of new inexperienced consumers and the increasing importance of large distribution have threatened this supremacy initially the usa and australia and later emerging countries such as chile and south africa gained increasing market shares in both exported volumes and value at the expense of incumbents however some of these newcomers e g australia have shown slower growth opening opportunities for newer entrants such as argentina and new zealand at the same time some of the incumbents especially italy have innovated challenging the leadership of france in key markets such as the usa in this article we investigate the different catch up cycles in the global wine sector that occurred between the 1960s and 2010 through a detailed analysis of export volumes values and unit prices we address issues related to the increasing share in the global market of latecomer countries and the relative decline of the incumbents as well as possible changes in the market leadership within these two groups

corporate growth and industrial structures some evidence from the italian manufacturing industry this work analyses the properties of corporate growth in a large longitudinal sample of italian manufacturing firms in particular it focuses on the statistical properties of growth rates and on the influence of proxies for relative efficiency upon relative growth in line with previous work the emergence of fat tails in growth rate distributions and the idiosyncratic nature of autocorrelation coefficients confirm the existence of a structure in the growth process richer than the one normally assumed by the gibrat law hypothesis and suggest the presence of firm specific drivers of growth at the same time there is a remarkable puzzle concerning the absence of any negative relationship between size and growth variance and only weak influences of relative efficiencies upon growth dynamics

inter industry technology flows in the united states abstract this paper presents for the u s economy a technology flows matrix tracing 1974 industrial r d expenditures from their industries of origin to industries in which the use of resulting products and processes was anticipated the distinction between origin and using industries is crucial to understanding the links between r d and productivity growth a regression analysis reveals high social rates of return and substantial productivity impacts from r d attributed to industries of use

is the budget deficit too large yes specifically we find that recent spending and taxing policies of the government if continued violate the government s intertemporal budget constraint as a result government spending must be reduced and or tax revenues must be increased these conclusions are based on tests of whether government spending and revenue are cointegrated in addition to examining real spending and revenue we also normalize these variables by real gnp and population for a growing economy these normalized measures are perhaps more pertinent we also test and find support for the hypothesis that deficits have become a problem only in recent years

finite horizons life cycle savings and time series evidence on consumption abstract this paper develops an explicitly aggregated life cycle model which allows for finite horizons and declining individual labor supply the model can generate a common upward trend in aggregate consumption labor income and nonhuman wealth without relinquishing hall s random walk at the micro level life cycle factors are shown to imply that consumption changes should be a predictable and b smoother than in the infinite horizon model econometric evidence using postwar u s data suggests that neither consumption s predictability nor its excess smoothness can be fully accounted for by life cycle considerations

the relationship between firm growth size and age estimates for 100 manufacturing industries this study uses a sample of all firms operating in 100 manufacturing industries to examine some aspects of firm dynamics it finds that firm growth the variability of firm growth and the probability that a firm will fail decrease with firm age it also finds that firm growth decreases at a diminishing rate with firm size even after controlling for the exit of slow growing firms from the sample gibrat s law therefore fails although the severity of the failure decreases with firm size copyright 1987 by blackwell publishing ltd

assessing ricardian equivalence this paper reviews the literature on ricardian equivalence this hypothesis may be interpreted as a generalisation to the short and the long run of the theories which put no weight on the real effects of public policies on aggregate demand we argue that ricardian equivalence relies on both permanent income hypothesis and the fulfilment of the intertemporal government budget constraint the theoretical literature emphasises several reasons for departures from this hypothesis however the empirical literature is inconclusive when ricardian equivalence is tested in a life cycle framework the hypothesis is usually rejected while when the empirical analysis is based on optimising models it is usually accepted

sectoral patterns of technical change towards a taxonomy and a theory abstract the purpose of the paper is to describe and explain sectoral patterns of technical change as revealed by data on about 2000 significant innovations in britain since 1945 most technological knowledge turns out not to be information that is generally applicable and easily reproducible but specific to firms and applications cumulative in development and varied amongst sectors in source and direction innovating firms principally in electronics and chemicals are relatively big and they develop innovations over a wide range of specific product groups within their principal sector but relatively few outside firms principally in mechanical and instrument engineering are relatively small and specialised and they exist in symbiosis with large firms in scale intensive sectors like metal manufacture and vehicles who make a significant contribution to their own process technology in textile firms on the other hand most process innovations come from suppliers these characteristics and variations can be classified in a three part taxonomy based on firms 1 supplier dominated 2 production intensive 3 science based they can be explained by sources of technology requirements of users and possibilities for appropriation this explanation has implications for our understanding of the sources and directions of technical change firms diversification behaviour the dynamic relationship between technology and industrial structure and the formation of technological skills and advantages at the level of the firm the region and the country

age size growth and survival uk companies in the 1980s this paper examines growth and survival amongst quoted and unquoted u k companies in the period 1975 85 and compares the results with earlier u k and u s studies an examination of death rates shows that smaller companies had higher death rates but the largest and smallest companies were least vulnerable to takeover careful attention is therefore paid to problems of sample selection bias it is shown that smaller companies grew faster than larger companies that gibrat s law does not hold amongst smaller firms that age is negatively related to growth and that these results are not an artifact of sample selection bias copyright 1994 by blackwell publishing ltd

on the limitations of government borrowing a framework for empiricaltesting this paper seeks to distinguish empirically between two views on the limitations of government borrowing according to one view nothing precludes the government from running a permanent budget deficit paying interest due on the growing debt load simply by issuing new debt an alternative perspective holds that creditors would be unwilling to purchase government debt unless the government made a credible commitment to balance its budget in present value terms we show that distinguishing between these possibilities is mathematically equivalent to testing whether a continuing currency inflation might be fueled by speculation alone or is instead driven solely by economic fundamentals empirical tests which have been developed for this economic question lead us to conclude that postwar u s deficits are largely consistent with the proposition that the government budget must be balanced in present value terms this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

atheoretical macroeconometrics a critique abstract the spurious nature of the restrictions used to identify many macroeconometric models has led some researchers to advocate a style of econometric inquiry that is less dependent on prior theoretical restrictions of the sort that were central to the approach of the cowles commission this development which we call atheoretical macroeconometrics is summarized and evaluated in the current paper it is contrasted with an updated version of the cowles commission approach we conclude that while some of the exercises of atheoretical macroeconometrics are valid those that have attracted the most attention and appear the most innovative exogeneity testing impulse response analysis and policy analysis using estimated vector autoregressions are based on incorrect analysis

the cross sectional dynamics of the us business cycle 1950 1999 abstract modern interest in business cycles has focussed on the co movements and correlations in the major macroeconomic aggregates in this paper we offer another dimension to business cycle analysis which looks at the time series of cross sectional distributions of the growth rates of sales by us quoted companies from 1950 to 1999 we detect correlations between aggregate business cycle fluctuations and the higher moments of the cross sectional distribution we find a significant negative correlation between the rate of growth of gdp and the cross sectional variance and skewness of growth rates of sales on the other hand there is positive correlation at business cycle frequencies with kurtosis in order to explore this further we turn to the dynamic evolution of firms and analyse the sensitivity of growth rates to aggregate shocks conditioning on firm size the results suggest that despite considerable heterogeneity macroeconomic shocks have pervasive effects that are however more pronounced for firms in the middle range of growth this has implications for both macro and industrial economics

the differences that methods make cross border power flows and accounting for carbon emissions from electricity use abstract how much carbon was emitted due to consumption of electricity in each us state in 1999 this paper presents three alternative methods for answering this question each of which is conceptually sound and sums to the same national total yet each produces very different estimates of individual state emissions these differences result from alternative assumptions taken to account for emissions associated with interstate electricity trade power and hence emissions produced in one state but consumed in another the methods described here demonstrate large effects that alternative methodological choices can have on our understanding of a state s carbon emissions levels and on the incentive structures for states to enact supply and or demand side carbon reduction policies of the three methodologies one is characteristic of standard carbon emissions accounting practice one of life cycle assessment and one is an integrated approach of which i argue that it is superior because it registers state carbon emissions change arising from change in both electricity production and consumption thus creating incentive for states to enact a full range of progressive energy policies though developed here at the state scale the issues engaged are relevant to carbon analysis and policy formation at scales ranging from the local to the international

the influence of market demand upon innovation a critical review of some recent empirical studies abstract a number of recent empirical studies of technical change at the level of the individual firm have concluded that market demand is the dominant influence upon the innovation process calling forth innovations in market economies the pace of innovation in the private sector heavily influences the growth of national output and productivity and these studies and their conclusions have therefore received much attention having been extensively quoted in discussions of appropriate government policy for the encouragement of innovation this paper reviews a number of these studies and concludes that their findings and the interpretations of their findings in the secondary literature are seriously flawed and in many cases invalid the proposition that market demand governs the innovation process is by no means conclusively demonstrated in these studies and they are therefore inadequate and inappropriate guides for the formulation of policy most of the studies examined employ a working definition of demand factors which is so broad as to embrace a range of possible influences upon innovation which should more properly be classified elsewhere the concept of demand utilized in these studies bears little resemblance to the more restrictive and precise definition of market demand found in economics in addition the phenomena analyzed in these studies are a very heterogeneous lot the studies do not address identical empirical questions and their findings are as a result neither uniform nor unambiguous both demand and supply side influences are crucial to understanding the innovation process and it is the exclusive preoccupation with only one set of these forces which is criticized in this paper some implications of the criticism for government policy toward innovation are discussed in the conclusion

impact on firms of the use of knowledge external sources a systematic review of the literature this study summarizes the main conclusions from a systematic review of the empirical literature regarding the impact on firms of the use of knowledge external sources universities research institutes and knowledge intensive business services with the aim to organize the literature we classify the different works according to the research question addressed i which firms use knowledge external sources ii do firms using knowledge external sources achieve better results and iii which firms benefit the most from using knowledge external sources stylized facts are that larger more r d intensive and high tech firms are more likely to use knowledge external sources and that use of knowledge external sources is associated to firms higher technical results less attention has been paid to the third question and evidence is not conclusive several recommendations for future research emerge first to take in greater consideration methodological issues so that potential biases in the results caused by sample selection and endogeneity are handled properly second to pay more attention to heterogeneous outcomes third to use continuous indicators of depth and breadth of links allowing for non linear relationships and fourth to extend evidence for developing countries and service industries

why are distributions of firm growth rates tent shaped abstract recent empirical analyses on different datasets have revealed a common exponential behavior in the shape of the probability density of the corporate growth rates we present new evidence on this topic from the italian manufacturing industry and propose a very simple mechanism that under rather general assumptions provides a robust explanation for the observed regularities

the impact of government debt on private consumption in oecd countries abstract this paper establishes a non linear relationship between private consumption and government debt in oecd countries with high government debt a fiscal expansion is partly crowded out by a fall in private consumption in contrast in low debt countries private consumption is insensitive to changes in government debt thus fiscal policy is less effective in stabilising business cycle fluctuations at higher levels of government debt

in defence of the linear model an essay this essay discusses the strength and weaknesses of the so called linear model lm of innovation it is a reaction to the habit of criticising it as over simplistic mechanistic or simply blatantly wrong we argue that while some criticisms are of course well grounded many others are instead based on loose interpretations and unwarranted assumptions in order to separate the wheat from the chaff this essay first presents a comprehensive description of the linear model and differentiates it from the caricature many refer to second we discuss the main criticisms put forward and argue that many of them are not at all destructive but can be easily accepted within a refined version of the lm third we discuss the policy implications often derived or said to derive from the lm to argue that the lm itself is distinctively policy neutral other assumptions have to be added to justify alternative policy implications

ownership and firm innovation in a transition economy evidence from china we examine innovation performance of firms in a transition economy from an ownership perspective we focus specifically on the relationship between ownership structures and firm innovation performance drawing on data from 548 chinese firms we find volume of patent registration to be most strongly influenced by foreign ownership in the firm along with firm affiliation within a business group the influence of state and institutional ownership on innovation performance is positive but lagged contrary to expectations insider ownership leads to lower innovation performance and concentrated ownership has no significant impact our study has two principal contributions firstly we utilize a comprehensive treatment of ownership characteristics overcoming weakness in previous studies that have used a more narrow focus on ownership type secondly we contribute to understanding of how firms in transition economies build indigenous capabilities for innovation by drawing attention to the interplay of foreign and domestic control of agents innovation

the effects of budget deficit on national saving in the oecd abstract in this paper we estimate a structural var using a panel of oecd countries which includes national saving and budget deficit both as the ratio to gdp to test the ricardian equivalence hypothesis in this framework we separate saving and deficit movements into two types of shocks associated with structural parameters of these economies our results suggest that ricardian equivalence did not work in our sample of oecd countries since private saving compensated only a small fraction budget deficit this supports the interpretation that the large budget deficits have been a very important factor behind the significant increase in real interest rates in the eighties and early nineties

the role of technology in market shares dynamics the paper presents the estimation of an empirical model of market share dynamics for five industrialized countries and 18 industries the emphasis is put on the importance of non price factors of competitiveness whereas most traditional explanations rest on the influence of relative prices among the former type of factor the role of variables reflecting technological advantage is privileged in particular the role of innovations has received considerable attention in the literature on international trade as well as the literature on endogenous growth in this spirit the paper introduces patent counts and investment as explanatory variables for the export market share the results show that non price variables have an important impact on the determinations of long run competitiveness

globalisation of knowledge production and regional innovation policy supporting specialized hubs in the bangalore software industry abstract this paper is concerned with the changing role of regional innovation systems and regional policies in supporting the transition of indigenous firms in developing countries from competing on low costs towards becoming knowledge providers in global value chains special attention is paid to policies supporting the emergence and development of the regional innovation system in this transition process regional innovation systems in developing countries have very recently started to be conceptualised as specialized hubs in global innovation and production networks asheim b coenen l vang lauridsen j 2007 face to face buzz and knowledge bases socio spatial implications for learning innovation and innovation policy environment and planning c government and policy 25 5 655 670 chaminade c vang j 2006a innovation policy for small and medium size smes in asia an innovation systems perspective in yeung h ed handbook of research on asian business edward elgar cheltenham maggi c 2007 the salmon farming and processing cluster in southern chile in pietrobello c rabellotti r eds upgrading and governance in clusters and value chains in latin america harvard university press a specialized hub refers to a node in a global value chain that mainly undertakes one or a few of the activities required for the production and development of a given good or service or serves a particular segment of the global market in global value chains firms in developing countries have traditionally been responsible for the lowest added value activities however a few emerging regional innovation systems in developing countries are beginning to challenge this scenario by rapidly upgrading in the value chain there is however still only a poorly developed understanding of how the system of innovation emerges and evolves to support this transition process and what the role of regional innovation policy is in building the regional conditions that support indigenous small and medium size enterprises smes in this transition process this paper aims at reducing this omission by analyzing the co evolution of the strategies of indigenous smes and the regional innovation system of bangalore india

the automatic reaction of the italian government budget to fundamentals an econometric analysis the paper offers a new estimate of the sensitivity of italy s primary budget balance to macroeconomic variables the analysis has distinguishing features detailed itemization of public finance aggregates close attention to the statistical properties of the time series and joint estimation of elasticities with respect to both real gdp and inflation first the economic variables driving the automatic component were chosen second when possible a macroeconomic base was associated with each public finance item third each tax base was regressed on the driving economic variables fourth each budget item that was supposed to include an automatic component was regressed either on its own base or directly on the economic variables affecting the automatic components the effects on public budget are simulated to investigate the consequences of a change in nominal and real gdp

firm behaviour and innovative performance an empirical exploration of the selection adaptation debate innovation is a complex trade off between routinisation and change between reliability and accountability of firms and timely adaptation this innovator s dilemma confronts innovation theory with the question how to align routinisation with innovation induced organisational change and consistent performance obviously it is a complex issue dominant innovation theory neglects this subject due to its pro innovation bias while evolutionary organisation and innovation theory give opposite perspectives on this problem the adaptation perspective considers pro active behaviour as the best condition for innovative performance whereas the selection perspective advances inert firm behaviour as the best alternative to achieve successful innovations our research question focuses on the explanatory value of either the selection or the adaptation perspective for the innovative performance of industrial firms our empirical findings confirm the adaptation perspective and reject the selection perspective comparatively firm behaviour involving the highest risks and uncertainties e g high environmental dynamics and high levels of adaptive activity contributes most significant to the explanation of innovative performance inert risk averse behaviour conversely does not improve or even impedes innovative performance compared with other types of firm behaviour

firm technological trajectory as a driver of eco innovation in young small and medium sized enterprises abstract few studies have focused on green innovation in young small and medium sized enterprises instead research tends to focus on large companies with formal research and development departments studying the influence of the firm s current technological strategy as well as the regulatory framework as a key driver of eco innovation this paper proposes that the combination of a firm s technological trajectory and its current research and development strategy are key determinants of eco innovation the authors investigate these relationships with panel data on 212 young firms in spain analysing their innovation strategy and behaviour during their first 10 years of activity the results show that the firms cluster into four technological trajectories but only market oriented innovators engage significantly more in eco innovation these firms are characterized by a high use of formal appropriability mechanisms market opportunity recognition arising from cooperation and high knowledge cumulativeness this paper sheds light on whether and the extent to which a firm s technological trajectory is a driver of eco innovation it confirms that firms that search for opportunities and have a continuous collaboration with market players are more prone to develop eco innovations additionally it shows that path dependence occurs in the development of eco innovations in that a highly developed innovation capacity leads to additional green innovation in the future the findings indicate that young small firms need to develop innovation capabilities that also enable them to adopt advanced technology before striving to become greener the paper concludes that policies designed to stimulate cooperative networking with other market players an upgrading of technological capabilities and the adoption of new technologies are all desirable because they contribute to improving the environmental impact of firms innovations

measuring innovation in tourism from the schumpeterian and the dynamic capabilities perspectives this paper offers a diagnosis of the state of the issue regarding the measurement of innovation in the tourism industry at the company level and some recommendations for overcoming identified problems the study addresses two central issues how existing secondary databases of innovative activity define the boundaries of the tourism industry and the degree to which these databases reflect the particular characteristics of this economic activity it is concluded that these analyses present serious biases and anomalies hindering the understanding of the situation at the micro level and complicating the issue of international comparability and the analyses do not capture the internal heterogeneity of innovative behavior of tourism companies from specific intra sectoral activities the problems concern inappropriate indicators and the need for survey methods to complement the development of innovation scoreboards in secondary sources the study concludes by detailing a set of proposals that should be considered in the context of a scoreboard to provide a comprehensive view of a tourism firm s technological and organizational innovations as well as its innovative capabilities combining schumpeterian theory and the dynamic capabilities based approach and also making cross national comparisons feasible

is demand pulled innovation equally important in different groups of firms previous empirical literature has tested the demand pull hypothesis and found that innovation may be driven by output using a balanced panel of 216 italian manufacturing firms 1995 2000 and checking for the path dependent nature of r d we find a role of sales in inducing r d however the demand pull effect plays a varying role for different sub samples of firms exporting firms liquidity constrained firms not subsidised firms and those not heading a group seem to be sensitive to sales in deciding r d these results have been obtained using a least squares dummy variable corrected estimator a recent panel data technique suitable for small samples

technological regimes and innovation in services the case of the italian banking industry abstract in this paper we propose a conceptual model to analyse innovations originating from the diffusion of information technologies in the banking sector we argue that technical change in this industry exhibits a revolutionary character a distinction is made between the mass automation regime focusing mainly on the mechanization of back office procedures in the 1960s and 1970s and the smart automation regime originating from the introduction of distributed data processing and network technologies and centered around the supply of electronic banking services a theoretical model is developed which emphasizes the crucial role played by demand pull variables in stimulating innovative behaviour under the smart automation regime in contrast limited importance is attributed to cumulative and learning by doing effects relating to back office automation at least for banks endowed with sufficient absorptive capacity the theoretical hypotheses are tested through an econometric analysis of the determinants of the innovative behaviour in electronic payment systems of a sample of italian commercial banks

industrial policy changes and firm level technological capability development evidence from northern brazil summary much has been written about the impacts of the policy changes of the 1990s on industrial performance particularly in latin america most of the studies are based on aggregated analyses that argue for or against such reforms in the policy regime this study offers an alternative view to this debate based on a longitudinal empirical scrutiny of technological capability development in 46 local and foreign firms from three sectors in northern brazil there were inter sector and inter firm variations in terms of the manner and rate of capability development for specific technical functions overall the patterns of firm level capability development exhibited a positive response to the structural reforms but such responses were not a mere consequence of trade openness a combination of government policy foreign competition and intra firm capability building efforts proved essential for speeding up capability development in some of the sampled firms thus policies for accelerating industrial technological capability development in a developing area such as the one examined here would involve not only macro level incentives and competition but very importantly measures that facilitate intra firm capability building efforts

asymmetric competition risk and return distribution abstract we propose a parsimonious statistical model of firm competition where structural differences in the strength of competitive pressure and the magnitude of return fluctuations above and below the system wide benchmark translate into a skewed subbotin or asymmetric exponential power aep distribution of returns to capital empirical evidence from us data illustrates that the aep distribution compares favorably to popular alternative models such as the symmetric or asymmetric laplace density in terms of goodness of fit when entry and exit dynamics of markets are taken into account

on the importance of the measurement of consumption in tests of ricardian equivalence abstract the contradictory results in the ricardian equivalence literature may be due largely to the use of alternative consumption measures within kormendi s 1983 empirical framework changing the empirical treatment of the service flow from consumer durables has dramatic effects

dynamic capabilities what are they this paper focuses on dynamic capabilities and more generally the resource based view of the firm we argue that dynamic capabilities are a set of specific and identifiable processes such as product development strategic decision making and alliancing they are neither vague nor tautological although dynamic capabilities are idiosyncratic in their details and path dependent in their emergence they have significant commonalities across firms popularly termed best practice this suggests that they are more homogeneous fungible equifinal and substitutable than is usually assumed in moderately dynamic markets dynamic capabilities resemble the traditional conception of routines they are detailed analytic stable processes with predictable outcomes in contrast in high velocity markets they are simple highly experiential and fragile processes with unpredictable outcomes finally well known learning mechanisms guide the evolution of dynamic capabilities in moderately dynamic markets the evolutionary emphasis is on variation in high velocity markets it is on selection at the level of rbv we conclude that traditional rbv misidentifies the locus of long term competitive advantage in dynamic markets overemphasizes the strategic logic of leverage and reaches a boundary condition in high velocity markets copyright 2000 john wiley sons ltd

invention and innovation in the chemical industry demand pull or discovery push abstract this paper describes a study of the determinants of the rate direction and scale of inventive and innovative activity in the chemical industry over the period 1830 1980 statistical data are interpreted in the light of case study material in three major sectors dyestuffs plastics and pharmaceuticals theories of technical change and economic growth particularly those of schmookler and schmpeter are examined in relation to this material on the chemical industry the findings suggest that the importance of demand pull and discovery push factors and the validity of schmookler s and schumpeter s theories vary over an industry s life cycle

consumption puzzles and precautionary savings abstract when marginal utility is convex agents accumulate savings as a precautionary measure against labor income eventualities this paper shows that precautionary savings can go a long way in making the excess growth excess smoothness and excess sensitivity features of consumption consistent with the stochastic processes of labor income observed in the u s at the microeconomic level

fiscal policy and the term structure abstract this paper investigates the empirical association between deficits in interest rates it extends the results in plosser 1982 to include the more recent experience the association between a measure of ex ante real rates and deficits is also considered the results largely corroborate the previous results first little or no association between real or nominal interest rates and deficits is found second output and to a lesser extent military spending are found to have a significant association with interest rates

innovation and corporate growth in the evolution of the drug industry abstract this work studies the processes of growth of the worlds top 150 pharmaceutical firms on the grounds of an original database which also allows disaggregate analysis at the level of single therapeutical classes and chemical entities our findings show that the industry whose long term evolution is driven by innovation imitation and permanent creation of new markets displays i fat tails in the distribution of growth shocks present at all levels of aggregation with relatively rare big spurs of growth ii a significant autocorrelation of growth rates iii a fall of variance of growth rates with size entirely dependent on corporate diversification patterns in turn plausibly shaped by the competence scope of each firm and iv different lifecycles of diverse types of products and persistent forms of heterogeneity across firms in terms of innovative output which however do not not seem to affect comparative growth performances

firm size and firm growth rate distributions the case of denmark there has been a recent renewed interest in the study of firm size distributions and firm growth rate distributions gibrat s law assumes firm growth rates are independent and identically distributed and that size is determined by a firstorder integrated process leaving the size distribution log normal this article analyzes these distribution patterns in an empirical context questioning the foundation of this model in a cross section analysis of four industries using danish data we show that the foundation and the outcome of gibrat s law are empirically far fetched in particular significant deviations from normality are found

an investigation of ricardian equivalence in a common trends model abstract to empirically discriminate between ricardian and non ricardian behaviour we have to use a method that distinguishes between expected and unexpected as well as permanent and transitory changes in taxes and government consumption one method that provides these distinctions between different types of changes is the common trends framework used in this paper which is a var model with cointegrating constraints in the empirical study of us data there is some support for the ricardian hypothesis but there are also some deviations from its predictions however the differences do not lend support to a keynesian view of budget deficits but rather to the view of expansionary fiscal contractions this can be motivated theoretically by uncertainty about future taxes in combination with prudent households

sectoral systems of innovation and production the concept sectoral system of innovation and production provides a multidimensional integrated and dynamic view of sectors it is proposed that a sectoral system is a set of products and the set of agents carrying out market and non market interactions for the creation production and sale of those products a sectoral systems has a specific knowledge base technologies inputs and demand agents are individuals and organizations at various levels of aggregation they interact through processes of communication exchange co operation competition and command and these interactions are shaped by institutions a sectoral system undergoes change and transformation through the co evolution of its various elements 2002 elsevier science b v all rights reserved

reconciling quantile autoregressions of firm size and variance size scaling the aim of this paper is to understand what economic mechanisms may cause the law of proportionate effect to break down for fast growing and shrinking firms recent evidence has highlighted that the first order coefficients of quantile auto regression of firm size decline across quantiles our theoretical results show that negative variance size scaling is sufficient to yield a decline in quantile auto regression coefficients if firm log size is laplace distributed conditional on size one period ahead however it is sufficient only for declining auto regression coefficients for fast growing firms under asymmetric laplace conditional log size if skewness is decreasing with size in other words if the growth of large firms is less dispersed and more left skewed size is a disadvantage for the growth of fast growers but not necessarily an advantage for fast decliners thus size related determinants of negative growth skewness such as diseconomies of growth market power and managerial attention issues impact on how the lpe is violated using data on dutch manufacturing companies from the business register of enterprises observed between 1994 and 2004 our empirical estimates of quantile regression models confirm the evidence of declining quantile regression coefficients for small medium firms 20 199 employees mainly in the right most quantiles and for the same subsample we find that growth rates variance and skewness are decreasing with size the theoretical propositions of the paper are thus corroborated

are differences in firm size transitory or permanent an erratum for this article has been published in journal of applied econometrics 18 2 2003 249 previous empirical work on corporate growth rates using cross section or short panel econometric techniques suggests that growth rates are random but that some degree of mean reversion exists this means that size differences between firms are transitory another more natural way to explore the long run distribution of firm sizes is to examine data on the growth of particular firms over long periods of time using a sample of 147 uk firms observed continually for more than 30 years our conclusions are that growth rates are highly variable over time and that differences in growth rates between firms do not persist for very long further firms show no tendency to converge to either a common size or to a pattern of stable size differences over time these results are compared and contrasted with standard approaches that suggest that firms reach and maintain stable positions in a skewed size distribution copyright 2002 john wiley sons ltd

state level renewable electricity policies and reductions in carbon emissions abstract a wide range of renewable electricity policies has been adopted at the state level in the united states but to date there has been no large scale empirical assessment of the effect of these policies on carbon emissions such an assessment is important because scholars have pointed out that increases in renewable electricity will not necessarily lead to declines in carbon emissions we examine the effects of a range of policies across 39 states we find significant and robust decreases in carbon emissions associated with the introduction of public benefit funds a form of carbon tax adopted by 19 states to date our aim in this paper is not to provide a final judgment on these policies many of which may not have been in place long enough to show strong effects but to shift the attention of the research community away from proximate measures such as increases in clean electricity generation and onto measurement of lower carbon emissions

debt and distortionary taxation in a simple perfect foresight model abstract we examine the real effects of a temporary substitution of debt for distortionary income taxation we find that such a policy may reduce consumption increase investment and reduce interest rates these results arise even though we examine the same model used by barro where temporary substitution of debt for lump sum taxes was shown to have no real effects we show that these anti keynesian effects on consumption are as significant as various pro keynesian effects such as finite lives hence the impact of debt is an empirical issue and ricardian neutrality appears to be a reasonable benchmark

some determinants of cost distributions in the process of technological innovation abstract industrial research and development r d is a set of activities within the broader set of decisions and activities the process of technological innovation ti it is technology transfer commercialization of the innovation that leads to technology diffusion that permits production and employment expansion and hence economic growth an important goal of industrial policy firms managements and government policy makers should recognize the close relationships among the phases of ti and direct their policy planning budgeting and control decisions to the complete process many policies currently focus their attention to only one or a few points such as r d in this study we conducted a detailed cost analysis of a limited number of innovation projects and studied the distributions of ti cost over the process phases we find that almost half of ti costs are devoted to r d which implies that government support of this phase is important different cost patterns emerge when we classify innovations by industrial sectors firms sizes and project complexity complex innovations require larger and more variable risky r d budgets smaller firms need more assistance in technology transfer these are only a few important policy implications this study emphasizes the importance of post r d phases and concludes that differential industrial policy may be required for technological innovations

on the existence of persistently outperforming firms this study analyses persistence in growth rates for a data set of manufacturing firms of all sizes previous quantile autoregressions of firm growth rates show that extreme growth events are likely to be negatively correlated over time thus questioning the existence of persistent outperformers by supplementing the quantile regression analyses with transition probability matrices our study shows that bouncing firms coexist with persistent outperformers this result is shown to be robust for all size classes as well as for the exclusion of firms who experienced acquisitions or spin offs

are consumers ricardian evidence for the united states this paper derives three empirical implications of a well specified model of consumer behavior a model that nests both ricardian equivalence and an alternative non ricardian theory ricardian equivalence is then tested against this alternative the tests reveal that ricardian equivalence cannot be rejected

the roles of science in technological innovation abstract one of the central issues in science policy during the past decade has been the extent to which the national levels of expenditure on scientific education and research influence the standard of living this paper provides empirical evidence to show that the pay off from this investment in science is more complex and indirect than previously supposed

persistent deficits and the market value of government debt summary this paper investigates whether postwar canadian public financial policy satisfies a borrowing constraint direct tests of the present value relation suggested by this constraint shed light on the sustainability of current policy we examine monthly data on canadian federal government finances using tests for cointegration the finding is that the joint behaviour of real debt and real surpluses is inconsistent with intertemporal budget balance for the government one interpretation of this finding is that the government is systematically paying real returns to bondholders by issuing further debt alternatively bondholders may expect the government to finance future interest payments from a source other than primary surpluses e g the sale of physical assets much empirical macroeconomics is concerned with the effects of public financial policies numerous studies have examined whether such policies affect interest rates inflation or national income and its components these examinations raise the question of the efficacy of government budget deficits they generally assume that a borrowing constraint holds in the public finances some positive theories of public debt creation also make this assumption examples include barro s 1979 history of us federal deficits and sargent s 1986 rationalizations of recent us budgetary policy lucas and stokey s 1983 discussion of optimal taxation also involves this assumption hansen roberds and sargent 1987 outline the testable implications of present value budget balance and hamilton and flavin 1986 investigate the feasibility of recurring deficits by directly testing the us federal government s borrowing constraint such tests seem natural given both the recent boom is testing more complicated first order difference equations in macroeconomics and the widespread discussion of current deficits this paper tests the present value borrowing constraint using recently constructed data on the market value of outstanding canadian federal government debt we use monthly rather than annual as in hamilton and flavin data and conduct tests of univariate integration and of bivariate cointegration to investigate the joint time series properties of debt and deficits one finding is that real debt and real surpluses are integrated processes evidence of their cointegration is mixed and point estimates of the cointegrating vector suggest that the expected real rate of return on debt is negative moreover the surplus measured to include interest payments as government spending is nonstationary these findings are inconsistent

patterns of innovation and organizational demography in emerging sustainable fields an analysis of the chemical sector this paper examines the patterns of environmental innovation in the chemical sector and focuses in particular on detecting whether the rise of sustainable chemistry technologies sct has stimulated the emergence of new organizations this question is important to assess the extent to which sct are sustaining the technological advantage of industry incumbents or are creating opportunities for new firms aspiring to develop radically new environmental innovations we found that sct still represent a relatively low proportion of chemical technologies and that they have not stimulated in a significant way the emergence of new firms however the importance of new firms has grown in the last 20 years and their technologies seem to have a higher potential of radicalness than incumbents technologies this indicates that although incumbents advantage remains strong a small group of young firms has started to weaken such advantage moreover the important role played by research organizations in generating sct may signal that technological opportunities are expanding and that some governments in particular the us government are committed to develop sct these results suggest that if supported by effective policies technological ferment in the field which at the present appears still limited has a potential of growth

organizational change skill formation human capital measurement evidence from italian manufacturing firms basing on a job competition approach in this paper we provide a labour demand oriented measure of human capital as defined by the amount of specific skills a firm generates through work based training wbt activities by merging three rich firm level datasets we estimate the impact of a set of variables that are supposed to affect both the propensity to invest in wbt and the intensity of training within the italian manufacturing industry over the period 2001 2005 the estimates show that the effects of innovation on wbt is higher when the introduction of new technologies is supported by organizational innovations when looking at the nature of wbt we investigate the different determinants of the firms propensity to provide both in house and outside training finally we estimate training intensity in terms respectively of the number of training activities provided private and total training costs and the share of trainees

does location matter for firms r d behaviour empirical evidence for danish firms in this paper we analyse whether regional location matters for danish firms r d performance in accordance with kleinknecht and poot s 1992 survey we test the urban hierarchy hypothesis stating that firms in urban agglomerations are more likely to perform r d than firms elsewhere using a micro dataset for danish firms obtained by merging danish r d statistics with account data the evidence of the influence of location on both the probability for undertaking r d and r d intensity is mixed but basically not in favour of any urban hierarchy in danish r d other non regional factors such as size of firm sectoral dummies classified according to pavitt s taxonomy and the dummy controlling for ict service industries are also estimated to have significant influence on firms r d behaviour furthermore the age of a firm only affects its r d intensity significantly cet article cherche a analyser si oui ou non la localisation regionale est importante pour le comportement des entreprises danoises quant

analyzing literature based innovation output indicators the italian experience abstract this paper presents the results of a study on the product innovations introduced in the italian market in 1989 and reported in a selected number of trade journals the analysis of data collected by means of this literature based counting procedure confirms that r d oriented industries and large firms do not in italy have a marked competitive advantage in innovation the country appears to be instead characterized by a significant presence of consumer goods industries and small firms in innovation our data indicate a statistically significant association between trade competitiveness and strength in product innovation and show the comparatively higher capacity for product innovation of some of the industries in which italy achieves a positive performance in international trade moreover the presence of spillovers at the regional level from both private and public r d expenditures proves to be positively correlated with the development of product innovations finally small firms with fewer than 50 employees appear to be more innovative than is usually believed to be the case

the role of knowledge in r d efficiency past research has recognized that both demand and capability influence the allocation of r d resources scholars have had an easier time getting a grip on demand than on capability while it has been recognized that knowledge is an important part of capability to date formalization of knowledge and its role in r d activity has been unsatisfactory this paper models the role of knowledge in r d various sources of such knowledge are considered the model throws a different light on analyses that employ a knowledge capital stock and also illuminates the dual private and public nature of technological knowledge

the business cycle macroeconomic shocks and the cross section the growth of uk quoted companies we bring to light a significant aspect of firm level heterogeneity over the business cycle analysing the responsiveness of firm growth quoted uk companies to aggregate shocks we find that the effects of aggregate shocks are more pronounced for firms in the middle range of growth rapidly growing and rapidly declining firms are less sensitive to aggregate shocks than firms in the interior of the growth range this is consistent with the fact that the higher moments of the distribution of firm growth rates have significant cyclical patterns these findings throw new light on growth of firms as well as on business cycle dynamics

identifying var models under rational expectations abstract this paper shows that the exclusion restrictions used to identify structural vector autoregressions svars generally yield inconsistent parameter estimates under rational expectations i develop an alternative method of identifying rational expectations models within the svar framework that circumvents the need of imposing stringent identifying restrictions on the dynamic processes for technologies preferences and other mechanisms e g adjustment costs these strong restrictions may explain why rational expectations models are frequently rejected by the data two empirical examples demonstrate the feasibility and potential advantages of this alternative modeling strategy