reallocation and learning over the business cycle abstract this paper shows how cyclical aggregate shocks can stimulate structural reallocation activities which in turn amplify the effect of the shock it analyses the informational aspects of restructuring activities and their interplay with aggregate shocks a model is developed in which production units are uncertain about the value of staying in the market and learn about it over time in a bayesian fashion in addition to their own private assessment they can also learn from observing other units decisions given that adjusting is costly each unit has an incentive to delay action and wait for other players to act in order to make a better informed decision if delay is more costly in a downturn a negative aggregate shock can break the inertia and induce the most pessimistic agents to exit the information released by such actions will induce more action thus generating a burst in restructuring activities that reinforces the initial effect of the aggregate shock this process of information accumulation and revelation offers both a powerful amplification mechanism of relatively modest aggregate shocks and a potential explanation of why restructuring tends to be concentrated in recessions

the scope of mandatory bargaining a critique and a proposal this paper argues that the mandatory permissive distinction in the scope of the duty to bargain collectively should be abandoned in favor of a policy of classifying all lawful subjects as mandatory the author shows that in recent applications of the distinction by the nlrb and the courts many subjects of interest to labor have been declared within the exclusive control of management she argues that the rationales used by the board and the courts in these decisions are not compelling and the mandatory permissive distinction is even less convincing when its current application is compared to the criteria of an ideal scope of bargaining

the impact on economic performance of a transformation in workplace relations this study examines how a transformation in patterns of conflict and cooperation affected economic performance in 25 work areas of a large unionized manufacturing facility in the period 1984 87 unlike most studies of industrial relations and economic performance this study clearly distinguishes conflict from cooperation but evaluates the two together rather than focusing on only one an analysis of data collected from union and employer records and interviews strongly suggests that work areas with traditional labor management relations rooted in adversarial assumptions had higher costs more scrap lower productivity and a lower return to direct labor hours worked than work areas with transformational relations characterized by increased cooperation and improved dispute resolution

the effect of the food stamp program on nutrient intake i introduction one of the goals of the food stamp program as stated in the preamble of the law is to ensure that low income households have the opportunity to attain a nutritionally adequate diet previous economic studies evaluating the effects of food stamp income on nutrient intake have typically found a positive usually small correlation between the receipt of food stamps and nutrition two recent papers by devaney and moffitt 1991 and horton and campbell 1991 reach very positive conclusions concerning the effect of income in general papers from the nutrition literature generally find positive but weak and often insignificant effects of income on nutrition we employ information on two groups of low income people and find slightly different results for the two groups but very different results from many of the other studies for a sample of rural families taken from data from the rural income maintenance experiment we find almost no effect of food stamp income or evidence of selection bias 1 however for a sample of elderly people from the food stamp cashout project we find strong evidence that self selection into the food stamp program is highly correlated with attaining nutritional adequacy and that controlling for the self selection food stamp income and other income have a negative effect on nutrition we re examine the relationship between food stamp income and the nutrient intake of the poor and improve upon the existing literature in several important ways first it is possible that the positive correlation between the receipt of food stamps and nutrition is not a direct causal link but rather is the result of other factors affecting both for example in one of the samples examined in this paper only 50 percent of those eligible actually apply for and receive food stamps it could be the case that those who care more about nutrition are at the same time more likely to apply for and receive food stamps and more likely to maintain a nutritionally adequate diet these possible self selection problems can be disentangled from possible direct effects of food stamp income on nutrition using estimation procedures which correct for selection bias another issue which our research addresses is that the level of one nutrient may be correlated with the levels of other nutrients this may occur either because individuals who care about nutrition may be more likely to attain adequate levels of all nutrients or because combinations of nutrients occur naturally in foods we posit a multi equation model of the levels of nutrients and allow the disturbances in each equation to be correlated none of the previous studies considered this correlation finally we recognize the fact that above some level extra nutrients are superfluous if an individual has attained a nutritionally adequate diet then whether or not food stamp income allows him or her to consume more nutrients is irrelevant we are primarily interested in therefore whether or not an individual attains an adequate level of a nutrient rather than the absolute amount of a nutrient consumed in previous studies devaney and moffitt 1991 had addressed simultaneously the issues of selection bias and the superfluity of nutrients above some level the finding that food stamp income actually lowers nutrient intake ceteris paribus is a novel result for studies of the food stamp program but it would not be novel in the literature on nutrition in less developed countries pitt and rosenzweig 1985 behrman and deolalikar 1987 it is reasonable to believe that as income increases households employ relatively more money than time in household production this is silberberg s 1985 explanation for decreased efficiency in producing pure nutrients in other words as income increases people spend less time preparing meals and more money on foods which are easier to prepare if as is often the case foods which are more convenient to prepare are less nutritious than foods which require a lot of time to prepare then our result is not surprising

experimental evidence on scaling up education reforms in kenya abstract what constraints arise when translating successful ngo programs to improve public services in developing countries into government policy we report on a randomized trial embedded within a nationwide reform of teacher hiring in kenyan government primary schools new teachers offered a fixed term contract by an international ngo significantly raised student test scores while teachers offered identical contracts by the kenyan government produced zero impact observable differences in teacher characteristics explain little of this gap instead data suggests that bureaucratic and political opposition to the contract reform led to implementation delays and a differential interpretation of identical contract terms additionally contract features that produced larger learning gains in both the ngo and government treatment arms were not adopted by the government outside of the experimental sample

the impact of food stamps on food expenditures rejection of the traditional model for food stamp recipients whose normal food purchases exceed their coupon allotment the traditional economic model predicts that the impact of food stamps on food spending will be the same as for an equal cash transfer the tobit analysis in this study indicates that for these recipients food stamps have a substantially greater impact on at home food expenditures than an equal amount of cash income these results reject the traditional model several possible explanations of this behavior are discussed

worker attitudes and the cost of production hypothesis tests in an equilibrium model worker attitudes and the cost of production hypothesis tests in an equilibrium model i introduction u s labor productivity growth resulting in a tripling of real gnp from the end of world war ii to 1973 began to slow down in the mid 1960s and continued to slow throughout the 1970s by the decade of the 1980s productivity growth as measured by the u s department of labor s office of productivity and technology had fallen from the 3 5 percent annual levels of the previous two decades to less than 1 percent per year a number of authors have tried to link worker morale and attitudes to labor productivity katz kochan and gobielle 1984 seek to attribute declines in labor efficiency as they measure it and product quality to deterioration in labor morale as measured by the frequency of grievances disciplinary actions absenteeism contract disputes and by the general climate of worker employer relations at the plant leve weisskopf bowles and gordon 1984 attribute the slowdown to a decline in effective labor input per hour of purchased labor they use a single equation macroeconomic model of aggregate production for the u s this paper introduces an index of worker attitude constructed from various indicators and estimates the effect of changes in this index on three measures of economic growth performance labor productivity multifactor productivity and the costs of production the study is based on the automobile industry in the united states the model includes all purchased inputs rather than the katz kochan and gobielle 1984 and weisskopf bowles and gordon 1984 approaches that studied labor productivity in isolation cost functions and input cost share equations are estimated simultaneously this procedure eliminates single equation sensitivity to small changes in specification and corrects for use of other inputs with labor a major contribution of this paper is the simultaneous estimation of the index of worker attitude and its effects on production the result is an index of worker attitude that is based on effective attitude measures as evidenced by slower productivity rather than a measure of worker attitudes taken from direct surveys of the workers such surveys may or may not measure an index of effective attitudes because the attitudes measured may not lead to slower production statistical results see norsworthy and zabala 1985a 1985b are very strong and consistent with the neoclassical theory of production and the attitude indicators are similar to those discussed in zabala 1983 the fact that these models perform in a similar fashion at different levels of aggregation is persuasive evidence major u s industries are performing better now than in recent times of economic recession but many are operating at lower levels of production and with substantially smaller labor forces than in recent periods of prosperity competition from western europe and japan is extremely strong in both foreign and domestic markets the results in this paper suggest strongly that u s industry could be made significantly more competitive by improved human resource management the following two hypotheses concerning attitudes on productivity and costs are tested first that worker attitudes have no effect on the cost of production second that the effects of worker attitude are factor neutral having no effect on the relative efficiencies of capital production worker labor nonproduction labor and materials each of these hypotheses is tested in the context of two translog cost function models with alternate factor share equations omitted finally the attitude indexes derived from the factor neutral and factor bias models are found to have similar properties and to be strongly correlated through time there are also plausible correlations with labor productivity total factor productivity and the total unit cost of production

strikes scabs and tread separations labor strife and the production of defective bridgestone firestone tires this paper provides a case study of the effect of labor relations on product quality we consider whether a long contentious strike and the hiring of permanent replacement workers by bridgestone firestone in the mid 1990s contributed to the production of an excess number of defective tires using several independent data sources we find that labor strife in the decatur plant closely coincided with lower product quality count data regression models based on two data sets of tire failures by plant year and age show significantly higher failure rates for tires produced in decatur during the labor dispute than before or after the dispute or than at other plants also an analysis of internal firestone engineering tests indicates that p235 tires from decatur performed less well if they were manufactured during the labor dispute compared with those produced after the dispute or compared with those from other non striking plants monthly data suggest that the production of defective tires was particularly high around the time wage concessions were demanded by firestone in early 1994 and when large numbers of replacement workers and permanent workers worked side by side in late 1995 and early 1996

child allowances and allocative decisions in romanian households in this paper it is tested whether increasing child allowances will affect the intra household allocation of consumption measured by child and adult goods holding total household resources constant the analysis is based on household survey data collected in romania where cash payments are made to families according to the number and age of children selectivity is controled for since there is the potential for self selection bias in terms of the level of child allowances received the findings suggest that holding total household resources constant child allowances increase demand for child goods and calories and reduce demand for adult goods

the effect of income and food programs on dietary quality a seemingly unrelated regression analysis with error components this article employs new food guide pyramid servings data to measure how food intake is affected by income and two food programs the analysis uses a maximum likelihood estimator that combines the seemingly unrelated regression and one way error component models to account for two types of intrahousehold correlations participation in the food stamp program is associated with higher intake of meats added sugars and total fats participation in the special supplemental nutrition program for women infants and children is associated with lower intake of added sugars

concession bargaining the meaning of union gains the article reports on a study which measured the indirect impact of union gains or concession bargaining on the economic interests of firms a discussion is presented about various categories and

industrial relations performance economic performance and qwl programs an interplant analysis this study analyzes the relationship among plant level measures of industrial relations performance economic performance and quality of working life programs the analysis employs pooled time series and cross section data from 18 plants within a division of general motors for the years 1970 79 the empirical results show strong associations between industrial relations and economic performance measures and limited support for the hypothesis that quality of working life efforts improve both kinds of performance

unions and monopoly profits using cross sectional data for u s manufacturing the author identifies a negative effect of unions on the profits of highly concentrated industries and virtually no effect on the profits of unconcentrated industries the results for concentrated industries are explained in terms of the monopoly model which predicts a negative effect of unions on profits equivalent to the change in employer s surplus the monopoly model also suggests that previous profit studies which omitted the union variable were likely to significantly underestimate the relationship between concentration and profits this prediction is also supported by empirical evidence m sany studies have demonstrated the ability of unions to raise wages above the level of nonunion workers higher union wages in turn may affect the level of prices employment capital intensity productivity and profits recent studies by clark 1982 and freeman 1983 have found significant negative effects of unions on profit rates in the united states using line of business data from 1970 to 1980 for 900 firms clark found a negative effect of unions on the rate of return to capital more specifically the union effects were found to be significantly negative when market shares were low and insignificant when market shares were high according to clark the absence of a union effect in the latter case can be explained by the ability of firms with market power to pass on higher union wages into higher prices 1982 p 47 on the other hand freeman 1983 using data from the survey of manufactures from 1958 to 1976 and the internal revenue service from 1965 to 1976 also found a negative effect of unions on profits contrary to clark s results however the union profit effect was negative only in concentrated industries the point of contention appears to be the role of concentration in determining the union profit effect rather than the overall negative impact of unions the results of clark and freeman are important because previous industrial organization research on profit rates generally ignored unions for instance of the forty six profit studies surveyed by weiss 1974 none included a union variable more recently a profit study in this review by ravenscraft 1983 using high quality line of business data from the federal trade commission also ignored unionization as will be demonstrated the omission of the union variable leads to an understatement of the effect of industrial concentration on profits this means that concentrated industries generate much greater profits than indicated by previous research in order to measure the size of the understatement a new concept employer s surplus is developed which illustrates the theoretical impact of a union wage increase on monopoly profits the empirical estimates of employer s surplus in this paper indicate how monopoly profits are divided between firms and unions most of the data used in this study were obtained from james medoff and charles brown 2 unlike the previous two studies each observation corresponds to a state by two digit sic industry for manufacturing in 1972 because of the large variations in unionization across states this data set offers a useful test of the union profit effect i employer s surplus according to accepted theory the profit maximizing monopolist will employ labor up to the point where the market wage equals the marginal revenue product mrp 3 if for simplicity we assume that all other factors are variable then the mrp curve represents the monopolist s long run demand for labor in the absence of unions employment is determined by the intersection of the mrp curve and nonunion wage wn as pictured in figure 1 if unions raise wages to wa employment will decrease from ln to l with the reducreceived for publication november 28 1983 revision accepted for publication july 6 1984 eastern washington university i am very grateful to dave bunting lisa brown bill dickens claire brown and george strauss for their valuable suggestions on this research this paper is a revised version of chapter 3 from the author s ph d thesis the union impact on profits productivity and prices university of california berkeley 1 see parseley 1980 for a recent review of this literature 2 i would like to thank brown and medoff for making these data available to me 3 marginal revenue product is equal to marginal revenue multiplied by marginal physical product see rees 1979

the effect of two tier collective bargaining agreements on shareholder equity this study uses an event time methodology to examine the impact of two tier agreements on shareholder equity from 1981 through 1986 following announcements of two tier agreements about half of the firms in the sample had negative abnormal returns returns with values below the expected market returns and half had positive abnormal returns because the positive returns exceeded the negative returns in absolute value however there was a statistically significant increase in mean firm value the abnormal returns averaged between 2 and 4 over a 10 to 12 week period following the announcement a figure that approximately equals the transactions cost of a stock purchase the authors speculate that this rather low average gain may help explain the marked decline of new two tier agreements during the latter half of the 1980s

labour unrest and the quality of production evidence from the construction equipment resale market this paper examines the construction equipment resale market to assess whether equipment produced by the world s largest manufacturer of construction machinery caterpillar experienced lower product quality in facilities that underwent contract disputes during the 1990 s analysis of auction data reveals that resale market participants significantly discounted machines produced in these dispute affected facilities additionally pieces of equipment produced in facilities undergoing unrest were resold more often received worse appraisal reports and had lower list prices taken together the evidence supports the hypothesis that workmanship at dispute affected facilities declined and that the resulting impact on the economic quality of the equipment produced was significant the dispute was associated with at least 400 million in lost service flows due to inferior quality equipment alone

the effects of automobile strikes on the stock value of steel suppliers this analysis of stock market data for the years 1965 90 indicates that upon announcements of automobile strikes steel suppliers experienced statistically significant negative returns about equal to the negative returns experienced by the struck automobile producers significantly larger negative interindustry effects were associated with large multi plant strikes than with smaller one plant strikes and the negative effects were significantly greater in the later years of the sample period a time of relatively weak financial condition than in the earlier years a time of stronger financial condition the author concludes that researchers and policy makers evaluating the private and social costs of strikes should consider adverse effects on the profitability not only of the struck industries but also of linked industries and should take into account the important roles of strike size and industry financial health

revisiting the case for a populist central banker it is known that discretionary policy may give rise to an inflationary bias if wages are negotiated in nominal terms in a recent issue of this review guzzo and velasco argued that this bias can be eliminated and welfare maximized by the appointment of a central banker who does not care at all about inflation a populist central banker a conceptual flaw of the latter result is identified here it is shown that when wages are negotiated in nominal terms the result is true only in the special case of a single all encompassing union in the more general case of multiple unions however inflation increases linearly with their number and a populist central bank may turn out to decrease welfare

social comparison and effort provision evidence from a field experiment social comparison has potentially far reaching consequences in many economic domains we conducted a field experiment to examine how social comparison affects workers effort provision if their own wage or that of a co worker is cut workers were assigned to groups of two performed identical individual tasks and received the same performance independent hourly wage cutting both group members wages caused a decrease in performance but when only one group member s wage was cut the affected workers decreased their performance more than twice as much as when both workers wages were cut this finding indicates that social comparison among workers affects effort provision because the only difference between the two wage cut treatments is the other group member s wage level in contrast workers whose wage was not cut but who witnessed their group member s pay being cut displayed no change in performance relative to the baseline treatment in which both workers wages remained unchanged this indicates that social comparison exerts asymmetric effects on effort jel c93 j33 m53

nutrient availability food costs and food stamps nutrient consumption patterns of low income households were analyzed using data from the special low income component of the 1977 78 nationwide food consumption survey a system of simultaneous equations for estimating food cost and diet component availability levels in home food supply was applied the derived reduced form showed that food stamp program participation had a positive impact on diet component availability levels impacts of other socioeconomic variables examined for diet component availability were generally larger than those for program participation and income diet component availability levels were relatively constant across households with different income and food stamp program bonus levels

unions wages and productivity some evidence from uk engineering firms estimates of union wage and productivity effects are derived using primary micro level panel data for a sample of firms in the uk engineering industry union wage differentials of the order of 10 are suggested from the results whereas union productivity impacts appear to be non linear with respect to union density

what do we learn from recall consumption data in this paper we use two complementary italian data sources the 1995 istat and bank of italy household surveys to generate householdspecific nondurable expenditure in the bank of italy sample that contains relatively high quality income data we show that food expenditure data are of comparable quality and informational content across the two surveys once we properly account for heaping rounding and time averaging we therefore depart from standard practice and rely on the estimation of an inverse engel curve on istat data to impute nondurable expenditure to bank of italy observations and show how we can use these estimates to analyze consumption age profiles conditional on demographics our key result is that predictions based on a standard set of demographic and socioeconomic indicators are quite different from predictions that also condition on simulated food consumption in the sense that their age profile is less in line with the implications of the standard consumer intertemporal optimization problem

saving and growth evidence from micro data abstract this paper examines whether the observed cross country correlation between aggregate saving rates and economic growth can be explained by models in which higher growth increases saving rates rather than the other way around there are two explanations why higher growth might increase saving first life cycle theory implies that higher growth will increase the life time wealth of younger savers relative to older dissavers thereby increasing the aggregate saving rate second models of consumption with habit formation imply that consumption responds slowly to unexpected income growth so unanticipated growth can produce a higher saving rate at least in the short run i assess these explanations using time series of cross sections of household surveys from four countries the us britain taiwan and thailand i find evidence that higher growth will produce only small increases in aggregate saving rates

female labour supply and on the job search an empirical model estimated using complementary data sets we develop an empirical model of labour supply that is consistent with on the job search and which is identified and estimated by combining two data sets the u k family expenditure survey which contains information on income and expenditure and the u k labour force survey which has data on hours and job search behaviour we provide statistical evidence on the compatibility of the two samples for the purposes of estimating our model we find that search has a direct negative effect on hours of work and we establish a strong positive effect of wages on hours

the effects of the nlra on stockholder wealth in the 1930s whereas most recent research examining the effects of the nlra on labor management relations has focused on the impact of specific provisions of the law this study provides an estimate of the impact of the passage of the nlra on 75 firms that were at great risk of being unionized in the 1930s taking changes in shareholder wealth as a measure of the shift in the balance of power caused by the nlra the authors find that the passage of the nlra caused a statistically and economically significant decline in shareholder wealth for the sampled firms specifically by april 1937 stockholder wealth in the firms was 15 9 lower than would have been expected had the nlra not been enacted t he impact of public policy on the balance of power between labor and management has always been a fundamental topic in industrial relations recent changes in many labor management relationships have renewed interest in the influence of public policy on labor relations and raised questions of how modifications in these policies might alter the behavior of the parties according to delaney lewin and sockell 1985 the empirical research on this topic has largely concentrated on specific provisions of the wagner act such as election procedures and regulation of employer unfair labor practices for example getman gold

do wage cuts damage work morale evidence from a natural field experiment employment contracts are often incomplete leaving many responsibilities subject to workers discretion high work morale is therefore essential for sustaining voluntary cooperation and high productivity in firms we conducted a field experiment to test whether workers reciprocate wage cuts and raises with low or high work productivity wage cuts had a detrimental and persistent impact on productivity reducing average output by more than 20 percent an equivalent wage increase however did not result in any productivity gains the results from an additional control experiment with high monetary performance incentives demonstrate that workers could still produce substantially more output leaving enough room for positive reactions altogether these results provide evidence consistent with a model of reciprocity as opposed to inequality aversion

partial identification methods for evaluating food assistance programs a case study of the causal impact of snap on food insecurity we illustrate how partial identification methods can be used to provide credible inferences on the causal impacts of food assistance programs focusing on the impact that the supplemental nutrition assistance program snap formerly known as the food stamp program has on food insecurity among households with children recent research applies these methods to address two key issues confounding identification missing counterfactuals and nonrandomly misclassified treatment status in this paper we illustrate and extend the recent literature by using data from the survey of income and program participation sipp to study the robustness of prior conclusions the sipp confers important advantages the detailed information about income and eligibility allows us to apply a modified discontinuity design to sharpen inferences and the panel nature allows us to reduce uncertainty about true participation status we find that snap reduces the prevalence of food insecurity in households with children by at least six percentage points

how much does absenteeism cost this paper presents evidence on the output loss resulting from absenteeism hedonic wage equations are estimated over two different data sets the 1972 1973 quality of employment survey and the pooled may 1973 1975 current population survey to calculate the cost in terms of reduced output and increased labor costs per payroll hour also a manufacturing production function is estimated to directly compute the productivity loss the results indicate that the effect of absenteeism on output is quite small a 10 percentage point increase in the absence rate is associated with at most a 2 1 percent decrease in the wage

how unions affect productivity in manufacturing plants this study investigates several hypotheses as to how unions may affect productivity analysis of data from 46 manufacturing plants for 1982 indicates a negative union impact on productivity the author finds evidence suggesting that unions reduce the effectiveness of some managerial practices undertaken to increase productivity and that a poor labor management relations climate also reduces productivity these two factors account for almost 50 percent of the negative union impact

plant level concession bargaining the author investigates the reasons for the diversity in concession bargaining experience among plants in the meatpacking and tire industries in 1981 negotiations about one third of the plants in each industry engaged in concession bargaining and the others did not the author hypothesizes that this pattern resulted from interplant differences in the likelihood of layoffs or shutdowns measured by factors such as plant age and size relative wage level and nature of product regression analysis of the data from union and employer sources supports the author s hypothesis

measurement error and earnings dynamics some estimates from the psid validation study previous empirical work on measurement error in survey earnings data has shown that the variance of the measurement error is roughly constant over time it is negatively correlated with true earnings and it is autocorrelated with previous measurement errors this article proposes a simple model in which the measurement error stems from underreporting of transitory earnings fluctuations and a white noise component the model fits well to data from the panel study of income dynamics validation study the results imply that autocorrelations in the changes of earnings can be estimated relatively accurately despite the presence of measurement error

worker absence and productivity evidence from teaching a significant amount of work time is lost each year due to worker absence but evidence on the productivity losses from absenteeism remains scant due to difficulties with identification we use uniquely detailed data on the timing duration and cause of absences among teachers to address many of the potential biases from the endogeneity of worker absence our analysis indicates that worker absences have large negative impacts the expected loss in daily productivity from employing a temporary substitute is on par with replacing a regular worker of average productivity with one at the 10th 20th percentile of productivity

union bargaining decisions and contract ratifications the 1982 and 1984 auto agreements the authors of this study investigate the determinants of union contract ratification votes by analyzing plant level data relevant to the 1982 and 1984 auto industry agreements with the uaw the results strongly suggest that the more vulnerable workers are to layoff the more likely they are to vote for ratification of proposed agreements the results also show however that workers tend to vote against ratification in plants in which other things equal the labor relations climate is poor in addition comparisons across contracts indicate how voting patterns associated with various plant and worker characteristics change when contract proposals shift toward greater job security and away from wage increases

concession bargaining the impact on shareholders equity this analysis of bargaining settlements in 1982 83 shows that on average shareholders in those firms that negotiated concessionary settlements enjoyed an 8 to 10 percent increase in the value of their holdings the author interprets this result to mean not that the value of the firm increased but rather that concessions enlarged the shareholders portion of the firm s value at the expense of the workers portion on the other hand concession bargaining does not seem to have reallocated business risk between shareholders and labor finally the evidence suggests that firm specific sources of risk can explain in part not only the magnitude of the concession effects but also the probability that concession bargaining will occur

toward a structural account of union participation in management the case of western airlines in 1983 and 1984 four unions at western airlines agreed to wage cuts work rule changes two tier wage plans and other concessions in return for seats on the board of directors a health services program financial information sharing and an employee involvement program the author uses data from interviews conducted with all parties between 1983 and 1987 to argue that meaningful and lasting employee participation occurred only when the union had enough power to induce management to forgo some of its traditional prerogatives a structural factor the union and management shared a vision of how participation could serve both parties interests a cognitive factor and the union had substantial institutional security a second structural factor

the food stamp program and food insufficiency food stamp participants have higher food insufficiency rates than eligible nonparticipants even after controlling for other factors given the food stamp program s prominent role in the alleviation of hunger this is a counterintuitive result we conjecture that these higher rates are due to adverse selection insofar as households more likely to be food insufficient are also more likely to receive food stamps we establish a theoretical framework to address this adverse selection using a simultaneous equation model with two probits we show that once one controls for this adverse selection food stamp recipients have the same probability of food insufficiency as nonrecipients copyright 2001 oxford university press

default risk and optimal debt management the role of movements in real rates in explaining the relationship between long and short term interest rates is explored within a model of optimal government debt management the government s incentives to resort in the future to inflation and ex post debt taxation in order to reduce the real value of its nominal liabilities have an impact on term premia and hence on the short long spread in particular default risk and consequently long term interest rates increase with the size of outstanding debt and the level of real rates in the presence of short maturities indexed debt and anti inflationary governments optimal maturity either lengthens or shortens with inflation risk depending on the time profile of government expenditure while it always lengthens with default risk however when the stock of debt is extremely large the compensation for default risk required by the agents on long term bonds may be so high that only shortterm debt can be issued the implications of this model are consistent with the observed behavior of risk premia in some highly indebted countries 2000 elsevier science b v all rights reserved jel classification h63 h43

profitability and compensation adjustments in the retail food industry this paper uses longitudinal data provided by a large unionized grocery store chain to examine the relationship between profitability and compensation adjustments between 1976 and 1985 consistent with the predictions of a nash bargaining model negotiated compensation adjustments were inversely related to the pre negotiation operating income of the relevant stores concessionary compensation adjustments in response to relatively low levels of prior profitability occurred in the first year of contracts and subsequent compensation growth was unaffected by differences in prior profitability decreases in compensation rates led to significant improvements in subsequent economic performance estimates of this relationship however indicate that the impact of compensation adjustments on profitability changes was less than dollar for dollar

the impact of union management cooperation on productivity and employment this study examines the effects of union management cooperative programs on productivity and employment the author collected productivity and employment data for each of nine manufacturing plants at monthly time intervals over a period of four to five years from two years before to at least two years after the introduction of the cooperative program regression analysis of these time series data is supplemented by qualitative data from personal interviews and relevant records the results show that after introduction of the cooperative programs productivity increased in six of the eight firms in which it could be measured and employment remained stable in eight of the nine firms

income risk borrowing constraints and portfolio choice economic theory suggests that uninsurable income risk and the expectation of future borrowing constraints can reduce the share of risky assets in a household s portfolio if the utility function exhibits decreasing absolute risk aversion and decreasing prudence an individual will reduce his exposure to rate of return risks when confronted with other independent risks if there are transaction costs the expectation of future borrowing constraints should induce individuals to keep a lower proportion of their wealth in the form of illiquid and risky assets the authors find support for these propositions in a cross section of italian households copyright 1996 by american economic association

employee voice human resource practices and quit rates evidence from the telecommunications industry the authors draw on strategic human resource and industrial relations theories to identify the sets of employee voice mechanisms and human resource practices that are likely to predict firm level quit rates then empirically evaluate the predictive power of these variables using data from a 1998 establishmentlevel survey in the telecommunications industry with respect to alternative voice mechanisms they find that union representation predicts lower quit rates even after they control for compensation and a wide range of other human resource practices that may be affected by collective bargaining also predicting lower quit rates is employee participation in offline problem solving groups and in self directed teams no apparent association is found between quit rates and the availability of nonunion dispute resolution procedures regarding human resource practices higher relative wages and internal promotion policies predict lower quit rates and contingent staffing electronic monitoring and variable pay predict higher rates

unions and cooperative behavior the effect of discounting using union contract and industry wage survey data this article examines the effect of discounting on cooperative bargaining behavior by unions and firms game theory predicts that higher discount rates raise the temptation to defect from cooperation measures of cooperative behavior included the presence of merit pay incentive pay wage employment guarantees or labor management study committees discount rates were proxied by the relevant industry s failure rate failure rates generally had negative effects on cooperation industry wage survey results showed larger effects for union than non union establishments providing support for the union bargaining framework

unionization and shareholder interests drawing on agency theory this study examines union nonunion differences in the allocation of both firm profits and business risk to employees and shareholders using a sample of more than 1 000 large private sector firms the authors find that over the period 1970 81 shareholders in unionized firms assumed less of the firm s business risk than shareholders in nonunion firms this finding is interpreted as evidence that managers of unionized firms attempted to minimize agency costs by capitalizing on the incentive effects of risksharing in addition risk adjusted returns to shareholders were lower in unionized firms than in nonunion firms the authors view the relatively poor performance of union firms as a primary motivating factor behind the restructuring of the american industrial relations system during the period studied

unionization and profitability evidence from the capital market this paper examines the effect of unionization on the profitability of firms abnormal monthly common stock returns for a sample of 253 nyse listed firms are estimated for the month in which the union petitions for an election and for the month in which the national labor relations board certifies the election outcome the results suggest that unionization on average is associated with a reduction in equity value when unions win an election the average loss associated with the unionization drive is 3 8 percent of equity value when unions lose an election there is an average net reduction of 1 3 percent in the equity value of the firm

the retirement consumption puzzle evidence from a regression discontinuity approach in this paper we investigate the size of the consumption drop at retirement in italy we use micro data on food and total non durable household spending covering the period 1993 2004 and evaluate the change in consumption that accompanies retirement by exploiting the exogenous variability in pension eligibility to correct for the endogenous nature of the retirement decision we take a regression discontinuity design approach and make the identifying assumption that consumption would be the same around the threshold for pension eligibility if individuals would not retire we check in our data that a non negligible fraction of individuals retire as soon as they become eligible and estimate at 9 8 the part of the non durable consumption drop that is associated with retirement induced by eligibility we show that such fall is not driven by liquidity problems for the less well off in the population and can be accounted for by drops in goods that are work related expenses or leisure substitutes however we also show that retirement induces a significant drop in the number of grown children living with their parents and this can account for most of the retirement consumption drop

valuing food store access policy implications for the food stamp program food stamp recipients may lack access to larger stores reducing the availability of nutritious food reliance on smaller stores may have undesirable impacts policy alternatives include limiting food stamp redemption to larger stores and subsidizing store development i estimate that limiting redemption to supermarkets and grocery stores or supermarkets alone results in losses ranging from 499 2 million to 1 05 billion or 1 17 billion to 2 44 billion respectively annual loss in food stamp recipient welfare nationwide the impact of improving access is also significant ranging from 333 6 million to 931 2 million

a primer on financial contagion abstract this paper presents a theoretical framework to highlight possible channels for the international transmission of financial shocks we first review the different definitions and measures of contagion adopted by the literature we then use a simple multi country asset pricing model to classify the main elements of the current debate on contagion and provide a stylized account of how a crisis in one country can spread to the world economy in particular the model shows how crises can be transmitted across countries without assuming ad hoc portfolio management rules or market imperfections finally tracking our classification we survey the results of the empirical literature on contagion

unionism and productivity in west virginia coal mining this study presents econometric estimates of the effects of unionism on productivity in 83 west virginia coal mines in the early 1920s the size detail and panel structure of the data set permit investigation of many possible links between unionism and productivity in contrast to the summary measures reported by most studies the results show that the union effect was not uniform across mines and cannot be represented by a simple shift parameter rather unionism significantly reduced productivity at small mines but not at large mines drawing on historical evidence the author ascribes this differential effect to systematic differences between small and large operations in the quality of management and union leadership

strategic monetary policy with non atomistic wage setters monetary policy analyses usually assume an atomistic private sector thereby ignoring potential interactions between policy and wage setting decisions yet non atomistic wage setters are a key feature of several industrialized economies we study the economic consequence of non atomistic agents and show that this qualifies previous results on the effects and desirability of a conservative central banker in particular the central bank aversion to inflation may have a permanent effect on structural employment while no such effect emerges with atomistic agents

the economic effect of strikes on the shareholders of nonstruck competitors prior research has established that strikes incur significant economic losses for the struck firms this event study of intraindustry strike effects in highly concentrated industries focuses on two samples firms that experienced a strike involving 1 000 or more workers between 1982 and 1990 and the nonstruck firms that were their closest competitors contrary to the prediction of some models that the economic losses incurred by struck firms are captured by their nonstruck competitors the results indicate that the total spillover from shareholders of the struck firms to shareholders of the nonstruck competitors in this sample was not statistically significant the authors speculate that the struck firms were able to limit spillover effects through such tactics as stockpiling inventory before a strike also concessions by labor which were common outcomes of collective bargaining during the sample period probably significantly reduced the struck firms total strike cost

sluggish institutions in a dynamic world can unions and industrial competition coexist during the 1930s and 1940s collective bargaining emerged as the workplace governance norm in much of the u s industrial sector following its peak in the 1950s union density in the u s private sector fell steadily to only 7 4 percent in 2006 governance shifted from a formalized union norm to one of constrained managerial discretion in competitive and dynamic economic environments a union tax on company earnings and slow response to economic shocks combine to produce poor performance by union companies two industries automotives and airlines are used to illustrate these points if worker based institutions are to flourish they must add value and permit companies to perform at levels similar to those obtained under evolving nonunion governance norms

the effects of grievance activity on productivity this study develops and tests a production function that includes a plant s grievance filing rate as a determinant of productivity application of that function to data on nine unionized paper mill

opening up pandora s box the effect of gender targeting and conditionality on household spending behavior in mexico s progresa program summary this paper evaluates the behavioral impact of conditionality and gender targeting on spending behavior in the progresa conditional cash transfer cct program from rural mexico results indicate that transfer income is not spent differently from general income suggesting that transfers exert only an income effect in addition women who have increased control over their extra cash are not significantly more likely to spend it in a family friendly way than they do household earned income both features entail significant costs to beneficiaries and program budgets our results indicate that further evidence is needed to confidently advocate for their inclusion in cash transfer ct programs

does it matter how we survey demand for food evidence from kenya and the philippines abstract this article examines the reliability of food quantity information collected from expenditure surveys and finds that measurement errors will very often be systematically correlated with income such that the response of food intakes to increases in income is seriously overstated this may be firstly because food quantities are not measured independently of income if total expenditures are the proxy used for income and secondly because food transfers in the form of guest and hired worker meals are under recorded these biases are illustrated using household surveys from kenya and the philippines

a test of the household income process using consumption and wealth data the evolution of household income can be explained almost equally well by rival models however rival models have very different implications for other household behaviours such as consumption i therefore test between two prominent models in the uk using panel data on consumption and wealth as well as income over 1991 2006 to operate the test i show that long lived income shocks transmit far less than one for one through to consumption and particularly so for younger households i then compare these estimates of transmission with estimates of households ability to smooth shocks captured by the data on wealth conditional on the suitability of the consumption model my estimates provide evidence against the restricted income process rip and in favour of an alternative heterogeneous income process hip this finding also explains why cross sectional consumption inequality grew slowly over the period even though the variance of long lived shocks was high finally i conclude that it is important to consider mean reversion of shocks when constructing life cycle consumption models

is poor worker morale costly to firms in 1985 and 1990 studies norsworthy and zabala reported evidence supporting the hypothesis that declining worker morale has reduced productivity and productivity growth this study partly replicat

fiscal adjustments and economic performing a comparative study the empirical relationship among fiscal contractions permanent improvement in public finances and short run economic performance is examined using a sample of 14 european countries over the last three decades the actual experience of policy making has taught that only the adjustments that relied heavily on primary expenditure cuts and were implemented over a relatively long time span were able to achieve a long lasting reduction of public liabilities indeed during these consolidations tax increase amounted to a small fraction of the total adjustment furthermore though they unfolded over a longer period with respect to the unsuccessful ones the overall budget cut was not larger as regards the macroeconomic impact successful episodes tended to be associated with improved economic performance during the adjustment period and in the following two years the economies experienced strong consumption and investment growth reduced unemployment better international competitiveness and falling interest

a cohort analysis of saving behavior by u s households the aim of this paper is to shed some light in the decline in personal saving rates in the united states in the 1980s for a such a purpose the paper analyses the only u s data set containing information on consumption and income at the household level the consumer expenditure surveys cex from 1980 to 1991 because the cex is not a panel most of the analysis is conducted using average cohort techniques the paper identifies a typical age profile for saving rates such a profile is hump shaped and peaks around age 57 the paper also argues that such a profile was shifted down for the cohorts born between 1920 and 1939 relative to the younger and older cohorts considered these cohorts are the parents of the baby boom generation the paper also argues that these cohort effects can account for a non neglible proportion of the decline in aggregate saving because these cohorts were during the 1980s in the ages when saving rates are typically highest the result is robust to the consideration of several controls and holds for several definitions of consumption the only exception is when durable expenditure is considered as saving rather than consumption

broad and narrow bracketing in gift certificate spending abstract we survey 1050 consumers who have just redeemed one or more open loop gift certificates to learn whether they view gift certificate income cash gifts and non gift income as substitutes we find that the majority 83 of recipients spend the certificates in the same way as cash the other respondents 17 bought an item they would not have bought otherwise but adjustments in their shopping pattern do not seem to result from constraints in redeeming the certificates 80 of all respondents in this group says they have used the certificate to buy an item they really love to have while inconsistent with standard microeconomic demand theory this behavior can be explained by narrow bracketing in spending gift certificates these consumers consider a limited choice set of nice personal items our data show that females are more likely to narrow bracket gift certificate income and that positive reciprocity towards the giver induces narrow bracketing in case the giver is a household member who suggests to buy a particular item using the certificate previous studies have found that both giving in kind gifts waldfogel 1993 as giving gift cards offenberg 2007 entail a welfare loss of 10 30 when compared to giving cash we find that the welfare effects of open loop gift certificates among users are limited the consumption of broad bracketing consumers is unaffected and narrow bracketing consumers seem to value the possibility to separate gift certificate income from other income sources

event studies in management research theoretical and empirical issues we examined the use of event studies in management research and found that there was inadequate attention paid to theoretical and research design issues this lack of attention may lead to false in

the effect of unions on productivity in a multinational manufacturing firm this paper examines the effect of unions on productivity in 31 plants of a large multinational firm in the years 1975 82 the plants 60 percent of which are unionized all produce a similar line of products using material intensive labor intensive low technology methods results obtained by estimating a translog production function indicate that unionization s overall effect on productivity is positive specific findings are that unionization increases the capital labor ratio and improves management performance but it also raises the absenteeism rate a net positive effect on productivity remains even when these channels of union influence are controlled for a result that the author suggests may reflect an improved labor relations climate or improved labor quality associated with unionization

labor regulations and contract labor use evidence from indian firms abstract labor regulations in india differ by states and apply differently across types of laborers the most restrictive laws make it harder to fire permanent workers for firms however these laws do not apply to workers hired through contractors contract workers using firm level data from india i find that compared to firms in flexible labor regulations those in more restrictive labor regimes hire more contract workers as a response to transitory local demand shocks i find no differential response in hiring of permanent workers by firms faced with these shocks this suggests that firms circumvent labor laws by hiring workers indirectly through contractors in the face of economic fluctuations

union effects on productivity profits and growth has the long run arrived this article interprets literature examining union effects on economic performance production function studies indicate small overall union impacts on productivity positive effects where they exist appear to result from management response to decreased profit expectations and from a natural selection process lower profitability among unionized firms is well established more interesting is the possibility that unions appropriate quasi rents deriving from long lived tangible and intangible capital the connection between unions investment behavior and productivity growth emerges as a particularly fruitful line of empirical inquiry although it does not encourage a sanguine view of unionism s long run impact

an investigation into the determinants of u s strike activity this paper outlines the steps involved in constructing a new panel dataset of u s contract negotiations and strike activity this data set has a much broader coverage of firms and unions than micro data sets analyzed to date key findings include the discovery that the variability and not the level of firm profitability affects the probability of a strike personal characteristics of the union workforce also emerge as key determinants of strike activity finally strikes are found to be more likely when the local labor market is tight but less likely when the industry labor market is tight copyright 1986 by american economic association

the impact of strikes on shareholder equity from an analysis of data for 1962 82 the authors find that strikes substantially affect shareholder equity as measured by the change in stock prices associated with strikes over that period the a

union wage concessions in the 1980s the importance of firm specific factors this paper evaluates the effects of firm performance and firm characteristics on concession outcomes over the years 1980 87 across similar firms the author finds concessions were inversely related to stock price and employment growth concessions were also most likely in small firms in firms paying high wages and in firms with relatively low union coverage the effect of firm performance and firm characteristics on the likelihood of concessions was uniform across concessions of differing severity and was stable in magnitude over the eight year period

who feels the calorie crunch and when the impact of school meals on cyclical food insecurity abstract monthly welfare programs such as the supplemental nutrition assistance program snap produce consistent cycles of expenditure and consumption among recipients food insecurity health status crime poor behavior and test scores track these cycles this paper leverages new data from the usda the foodaps survey to better understand these cycles in three ways first i find that expenditure and consumption cycles are correlated within households a fact not previously established second i study diet quality over the benefit month and find that it worsens potentially compounding the harmful consequences of cyclical food insecurity third i find that kids bear less of the burden of the consumption cycle than adults and that much of this difference may be driven by school meal programs this finding suggests large potential gains in child welfare from expanding summer meal programs

a test of an efficiency model of grievance activity copyright by cornell university this is the publisher s version also available electronically from http ilr sagepub com content 45 1 3 refs

cleaning house the impact of information technology monitoring on employee theft and productivity this paper examines how firm investments in technology based employee monitoring impact both misconduct and productivity we use unique and detailed theft and sales data from 392 restaurant locations from five firms that adopt a theft monitoring information technology it product we use difference in differences models with staggered adoption dates to estimate the treatment effect of it monitoring on theft and productivity we find significant treatment effects in reduced theft and improved productivity that appear to be primarily driven by changed worker behavior rather than worker turnover we examine four mechanisms that may drive this productivity result economic and cognitive multitasking fairness based motivation and perceived increases of general oversight the observed productivity results represent substantial financial benefits to both firms and the legitimate tip based earnings of workers our results suggest that employee misconduct is not solely a function of individual differences in ethics or morality but can also be influenced by managerial policies that can benefit both firms and employees this paper was accepted by serguei netessine operations management

superior information income shocks and the permanent income hypothesis according to the permanent income hypothesis with quadratic preferences households save for a rainy day the transitory component of income innovations and consume entirely the permanent one the m

dietary effects of the food stamp program based on data from the 1979 80 survey of food consumption in low income households this paper estimates the effects of changes in cash income and the food stamp benefit on household nutrient availability while controlling for two potential sources of selection bias the major finding of the empirical analysis is that the estimated dietary effects of changes in food stamp benefits are considerably larger than those resulting from changes in cash income with estimates of the ratios of the mpc for the food stamp benefit to the cash income mpc ranging from three to seven across nutrients no significant evidence of selection bias was found and the estimated dietary effects of food stamp benefits from the selection bias models are similar to those from the basic model estimated by ordinary least squares regression

is there a retirement savings puzzle in this paper we ask whether households are saving enough for their retirement we use data on income expenditure and expenditure components to analyse patterns of behaviour at and around the time of retirement for successive date of birth cohorts we compare periods of unemployment to periods of retirement and separate expenditures into categories reflecting work related expenditures basic necessities and other goods we find that income typically falls by more at unemployment than retirement but the reverse is true for expenditure we observe falls in expenditure at retirement for all expenditure categories using a stochastic life cycle model including mortality rates we assess the anticipated impact of retirement on consumption against that of unemployment the inter relationship between goods and leisure explains a large part of the persistent fall in expenditure at retirement we argue that the only way in which the life cycle hypothesis could be reconciled with the remaining unanticipated dip in consumption would be with the systematic arrival of unexpected adverse information at the time of retirement