the influence of competitive positioning and rivalry on emerging market risk assessment rating agencies play a pivotal role in international credit transactions their sovereign risk assessments are largely thought to reflect objective evaluations of the creditworthiness of potential borrowers we test this assumption by examining the role that competitive positioning and dynamics play in the risk assessments these agencies provide our analyses of agency risk assessments for emerging market sovereign borrowers indicate that they are significantly related to agency positioning as an incumbent or insurgent new entrant to agency specialization in sovereigns from particular geographic regions and in some instances to the level of agency rivalry in a specific sovereign market our findings suggest both significant general and contingent links between foreign investment risk assessment and competitive positioning and rivalry among agencies

wealth accumulation over the life cycle and precautionary savings this article constructs and simulates a life cycle model of wealth accumulation and estimates the parameters of the utility function the rate of time preference and the coefficient of risk aversion by matching the simulated median wealth profiles with those observed in the panel study of income dynamics and in the survey of consumer finances the estimates imply a low degree of patience and a high degree of risk aversion the results are used to study the importance of precautionary savings in explaining wealth accumulation they imply that wealth accumulation is driven mostly by precautionary motives at the beginning of the life cycle whereas savings for retirement purposes become significant only closer to retirement

precautionary saving and endogenous labor supply with and without intertemporal expected utility we analyze precautionary saving behavior in a framework with labor and nonlabor income risks an endogenous supply of labor and a representation of preferences that disentangles attitudes towards risk attitudes towards intertemporal substitution and ordinal preferences for consumption and leisure this preference structure allows us to disentangle and to describe in an intuitive way the different forces that determine precautionary saving in the small and in the large

new venture internationalization strategic change and performance a follow up study abstract although many scholars business experts and government agencies enthusiastically advise all firms including new and small ventures to internationalize such advice does not appear to be based on empirical evidence few researchers have empirically examined the link between new venture performance and the internationalization of new ventures at best the evidence suggests that there is no significant relationship we used a sample of 62 u s new venture manufacturers in the computer and communications equipment industries during the late 1980s these industries were purportedly globalizing and may have been leading other industries into increased international operations we found that higher levels of internationalization percentage of foreign sales to total venture sales were associated with higher relative market share two years later however there was no significant direct relationship between percentage of international sales and subsequent return on investment roi perhaps international operations simply cost more than expected or perhaps as macmillan and day 1987 found in their study of corporate ventures over a 4 year time period increases in market share may be a prelude to higher roi as scale benefits translate into higher profitability however the 2 year time period of our study may simply not be long enough for investments in higher market shares to produce improved profits during the 2 year study period many of the ventures changed their level of internationalization of the 36 ventures who were domestic no international sales in the prior study 10 expanded into international markets over the 2 years of the 26 originally international ventures international sales of at least 5 half increased their percentage of international sales nine reduced it and four stayed the same whereas the average change in international sales percentage of the ventures was only 2 9 percentage points the large standard deviation of 13 0 percentage points and the leptokurtic distribution 9 2 reflected the dramatic changes made by some of the ventures using subgroup analysis we examined these changes in percentage of international sales in conjunction with changes in strategies and performance ventures that had increased international sales relative to those that had not exhibited more positive associations between the degree of strategic change and performance as measured in terms of both relative market share and roi increased international sales in technology based new ventures seems to require simultaneous strategic changes in order to positively impact venture performance this study is a follow up to mcdougall s 1989 finding that technology based new ventures that had sales in foreign markets had significantly different strategies than similar ventures that sold their products only domestically the current study enriches the previous findings by adding consideration of 1 changes in degree of internationalization 2 changes in strategy and 3 venture performance although we found no performance penalty associated with increasing international sales alone indiscriminant advice for new ventures to sell in foreign markets without other supporting strategic actions is inconsistent with our findings internationalization alone did not lead to increased profitability entrepreneurs of young technology based firms who are considering internationalization should take heed of our results internationalization of sales does not appear to be a simple matter of applying established strategies and procedures developed for a domestic arena successful internationalization appears to require changes in the venture s strategy as well

housing wealth and consumption growth evidence from a large panel of households this article uses a large panel dataset that tracks the housing wealth and credit card spending of 12 793 individuals in hong kong to study the relationship between housing wealth and household consumption i identify a significant effect of housing wealth on consumption a pure wealth effect can explain part of the sensitivity households with multiple houses have much stronger consumption responses consistent with a relaxation of the credit constraints mortgage refinancing significantly increases households consumption sensitivities however for the majority of the households that do not refinance consumption sensitivity appears to be due to a reduction in precautionary saving jel e21 g21

does public insurance crowd out private insurance the cost of expanding public sector health programs depends critically on the extent to which public eligibility will cover just the uninsured or will crowd out existing private insurance coverage we estimate the extent of crowd out arising from the expansions of medicaid to pregnant women and children over the 1987 1992 period we estimate that approximately 50 percent of the increase in medicaid coverage was associated with a reduction in private insurance coverage this occurred largely because employees took up employer based insurance less frequently there is also some evidence that employers contributed less for insurance and that workers dropped coverage of dependents

on the distribution and dynamics of health care costs using data from the health and retirement survey and the assets and health dynamics of the oldest old survey we estimate the stochastic process that determines both the distribution and dynamics of health care costs we find that the data generating process for log health costs is well represented as the sum of a white noise process and a highly persistent ar 1 process we also find that the innovations to this process can be modelled with a normal distribution that has been adjusted to capture the risk of catastrophic health care costs simulating this model we find that in any given year 0 1 of households receive a health cost shock with a present value of at least 125 000 copyright 2004 john wiley sons ltd

to love or to pay savings and health care in older age this paper develops a dynamic structural lifecycle model to study how heterogeneous health and medical spending shocks affect the savings behavior of the elderly individuals are allowed to respond to health shocks in two ways they can directly pay for their health care expenses self insure or they can rely on health insurance contracts there are two possible insurance options one through formal contracts and another through informal care provided by family formal contracts may be affected by asymmetric information problems whereas informal insurance depends on social ties cohesion and on bequeathable wealth i estimate the model on share data using simulated method of moments for four levels of wealth in a sample of single retired europeans counterfactual experiments show that health medical spending and health insurance are indeed the main drivers of the slow wealth decumulation in old age i also find that social cohesion rises with age declines with wealth and is higher in mediterranean countries than in central european and scandinavian countries finally high social cohesion appears typically associated with increased life expectancy

implications of increasing college attainment for aging in general equilibrium we develop an overlapping generations general equilibrium model of the u s economy with heterogeneous consumers who face idiosyncratic earnings and health risk to study the implications of increasing college attainment decreasing fertility and increasing longevity 2005 2100 while all three trends contribute to a higher old age dependency ratio increasing college attainment has different implications because it increases labor productivity decreasing fertility and increasing longevity require the government to increase the average labor tax rate from 33 5 to 47 1 percent increasing college attainment lowers the required tax increase by 12 0 percentage points the labor tax rate required to balance the government budget is higher under general equilibrium than in a small open economy with a constant interest rate because the reduction in the interest rate lowers capital income tax revenues

life cycle responses to health insurance status this paper studies the lifetime effects of exogenous changes in health insurance coverage e g medicare ppaca termination of employer provided plans on the dynamic optimal allocation consumption leisure health expenditures status health and wealth and welfare we solve simulate and structurally estimate a parsimonious life cycle model with endogenous exposure to morbidity and mortality risks and exogenous health insurance by varying coverage we identify the marginal effects of insurance when young and or when old on allocations statuses and welfare our results highlight positive effects of insurance on health wealth and welfare as well as mid life substitution away from healthy leisure in favor of more health expenses caused by peaking wages and accelerating health issues

u s tax policy and health insurance demand can a regressive policy improve welfare abstract the u s tax policy on health insurance is regressive because it subsidizes only those offered group insurance through their employers who also tend to have a relatively high income moreover the subsidy takes the form of deductions from the progressive income tax system giving high income earners a larger subsidy to understand the effect of the policy we construct a dynamic general equilibrium model with heterogenous agents and an endogenous demand for health insurance a complete removal of the subsidy may lead to a partial collapse of the group insurance market reduce the insurance coverage and deteriorate welfare there is however room for improving the coverage and welfare by extending a refundable credit to the individual insurance market

uncertain medical expenses and precautionary saving near the end of the life cycle this paper introduces a dynamic structural model of household consumption decisions in which elderly families consider the effects of uncertain future medical expenses when deciding current levels of consumption the model with uncertain medical expenses implies a potentially important role for precautionary saving incentives to explain slow rates of dissaving among elderly americans during retirement rather than just simulating the stochastic dynamic model preference parameters are estimated using panel data on health wealth and expenditures for retired families the health uncertainty model predicts consumption levels closer to observed expenditures than a life cycle model with uncertain longevity however elderly families typically dissave their financial assets more slowly than even the baseline health uncertainty model predicts is optimal

consumption during retirement the missing link in the life cycle this study presents the first evidence on the relation of consumption to lifetime wealth based on data from the 1973 and 1975 retirement history survey that have been linked to social security earnings records nearly 500 white married fully retired couples ages 62 69 form the basis of the analysis on average their consumption early in retirement exceeds by 14 percent the income that their financial pension and social security wealth can generate this implies that their saving both private and through social security is insufficient to sustain consumption throughout the rest of their lives additional evidence based on changes in spending between 1973 and 1975 shows that these households respond by reducing their real consumption at a rate sufficient to generate positive changes in net financial worth within a few years after retirement these two pieces of evidence can be rationalized by a rate of time preference much higher than the interest rate coupled with either a bequest motive or uncertainty about the length of life they also imply that even when combined with private pensions and savings social security in the united states today does not enable most recipients to maintain their living standard at the levels they enjoyed before they retired this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

the effects of marital status and children on savings and portfolio choice this paper investigates the impact of demographic shocks on optimal decisions about saving life insurance and most centrally asset allocation we analyze these choices within the framework of a life cycle model that features exogenous changes in family composition heterogeneity in lifetime income and uninsurable fluctuations in earnings and medical costs our analysis indicates that marital status transitions and children can have important effects on optimal household decisions widowhood induces sharp reductions in the portfolio shares in stock and the impact is largest for women and individuals with children divorce causes men and women to reallocate their portfolios in different directions men choose much riskier allocations while women opt for safer ones children play a fundamental role in the optimal portfolio decisions men with children for example increase their shares in response to divorce by less than half as much as men without children comparing our simulation results with panel data evidence on stockholding from the psid and the hrs we conclude that changes in marital status and children matter empirically as well but not always in the ways that the model predicts

balancing incentives in the compensation contracts of nonprofit hospital ceos abstract given the considerable insight into corporate governance achieved through studies of executive compensation in proprietary firms it is surprising that executive contracting in nonprofit organizations remains largely unexplored in this paper we use the multitask principal agent model of holmstrom and milgrom the journal of law economics and organization 7 1991 suppl 24 to argue that nonprofit hospitals represent an optimal response to information asymmetries between managers and boards for a board with multidimensional objectives the agency problem is getting top executives to distribute their efforts across all dimensions of the hospital s mission the nonprofit form is preferred because the absence of high powered incentives such as share ownership reduces executives incentives to place undue emphasis on improving financial performance at the expense of important but less observable tasks using newly available compensation data we test the model by comparing the conditional distributions of earnings for industrial and nonprofit hospital ceos in ontario our best estimates are that ceos in publicly traded firms earn twice as much on average as those in similarly sized nonprofit hospitals but bear roughly eight times the income variance estimates of the associated degree of risk aversion are well within conventional bounds and are consistent with the trade off between insurance and incentives predicted by the theory

industry equilibrium uncertainty and futures markets abstract this paper studies competitive long run industry equilibrium with uncertainty and futures trading we also provide a long run analysis of futures trading instead of the conventional short run analysis it is shown without using a general equilibrium model that given uncertain demand and risk aversion a bias backwardation or contango arises in long run industry equilibrium given risk neutrality such a bias however disappears we find that the occurrence of the bias depends not only on the existence of a risk premium but also on the length of the period considered each risk averse firm operates at a less efficient scale and moreover an expected spot price never accords with marginal cost when the expected spot price is less than marginal cost the risk averse firm can secure profit by selling futures contracts more than the amount of its output in the presence of production supply uncertainty a risk neutral firm operates with excess capacity under additive risk while the firm operates with proper capacity under multiplicative risk the key lies in whether its average cost curve is shifted by production risk

nursing home residents make a difference the overestimation of saving rates at older ages while life cycle theory makes the clear prediction that people dissave at old age this prediction is not at all borne out by the data from many countries various suggestions have been made to explain this discrepancy this paper sheds more light on the effect of the exclusion of institutionalized individuals in estimating saving rates over old age a conceptual aspect often mentioned but never investigated particularly this group is expected to decumulate wealth since nursing home expenses net of private and public insurance exceed disposable income on average this paper uses data from the u s and germany to show that there is an increasing overestimation of saving rates from age 75 on if institutionalized households are not included the effect on aggregate saving rates caused by the exclusion of the nursing home population becomes even more important in the face of population aging specifically this paper quantifies this effect using the health and retirement study hrs for the usa the overestimation of the mean median saving rates is 3 3 percentage points 4 3pp at age 80 5 4pp 9 4pp at age 90 and even more for age 90 based on the german income and expenditure survey evs the overestimation of the german mean saving rate increases to almost 6pp at age 90 this strong overestimation is based on the fact that nursing home residents strongly reduced their wealth holdings referring to the usa the median single nursing home resident reduces wealth holdings by 90 over a two year period the mean single nursing home r esident diminishes total net wealth by 19 the dissaving is less strong for couples

deconstructing life cycle expenditure we revisit two well known facts regarding life cycle expenditures the hump shaped profile of nondurable expenditures and the increase in cross household consumption inequality we document that the behavior of total nondurables masks surprising heterogeneity in the life cycle profile of individual consumption subcomponents we provide evidence that the categories driving life cycle consumption either are inputs into market work or are amenable to home production using a quantitative model we document that the disaggregated life cycle consumption profiles imply a level of uninsurable permanent income risk that is substantially lower than that implied by a model using a composite consumption good

evaluating long term care policy options taking the family seriously we propose a dynamic non cooperative framework for long term care ltc decisions of families and use it to evaluate ltc policy options for the u s we first document the importance of informal caregiving and economic determinants of care arrangements we then build a heterogeneous agents model with imperfectly altruistic overlapping generations to account for the patterns we find a key innovation is the availability of informal care ic which is determined through intra family bargaining this opens up a new margin in response to policy and allows for informal insurance through home production of care our calibrated model captures the observed care arrangements well we study the implications of non means tested ic and formal care fc subsidies as well as changes to means tested medicaid we find that ic responds strongly to these policies an ic subsidy substantially reduces reliance on medicaid while the reduction of tax revenues due to lower labour supply by caregivers is modest there are large welfare gains from a combination of ic and fc subsidies even when combined with a reduction of the medicaid program

public insurance and private savings who is affected and by how much this paper employs a recently developed instrumental quantile regression method to investigate the effect of medicaid on household savings across different wealth groups it finds that the disincentive effect of medicaid on household savings is heavily concentrated in the middle net worth households in contrast the effects on the bottom and top net worth households are quite small and insignificant these heterogeneous incentive effects are partly explained by medicaid asset tests our findings hold regardless of whether affluence is measured in terms of wealth or income they suggest that despite generating substantial crowd out for the mean household medicaid expansions are unlikely to discourage the savings of the poorest households copyright 2008 john wiley sons ltd

population age structure saving capital flows and the real exchange rate a survey of the literature this paper surveys the existing literature on the effects of population age structure on saving capital flows and the real exchange rate we build on previous surveys of age structure and saving behaviour by including extensive discussion of international linkages specifically the impact on capital flows and real exchange rates we also point to unresolved issues that need to be addressed given that population aging has serious policy implications in the developed economies these days

is consumption growth consistent with intertemporal optimization evidence from the consumer expenditure survey in this paper we show that some of the predictions of models of consumer intertemporal optimization are in line with the patterns of nondurable expenditure observed in u s household level data we propose a flexible specification of preferences that allows multiple commodities and yields empirically tractable equations we estimate preference parameters using the only u s micro data set with complete consumption information we show that previous rejections can be explained by the simplifying assumptions made in previous studies we also show that results obtained using good consumption or aggregate data can be misleading

explaining the wealth holdings of different cohorts productivity growth and social security in this paper we explore the reasons why different generations accumulate different amounts of wealth we use basic economic theory to propose two indicators of the economic conditions under which households accumulate wealth the first one represents productivity differences across cohorts the aggregate level of gross national product per capita around the time the head of the household entered the labor market the second measure summarizes the changes in social security during the head of household s working life using panel data from the dutch socio economic panel we show that productivity growth can explain all the cohort effects present in income data while productivity growth and the generosity of social security can explain all the cohort effects present in household net worth we also find a limited offset of social security on wealth holdings

optimal annuitization with stochastic mortality and correlated medical costs the conventional wisdom since yaari 1965 is that households without a bequest motive should fully annuitize their investments numerous frictions do not break this sharp result we modify the yaari framework by allowing a household s mortality risk itself to be stochastic due to health shocks a lifetime annuity still helps to hedge longevity risk but the annuity s remaining present value is correlated with medical costs such as those for nursing home care thereby reducing annuity demand even without ad hoc liquidity constraints we find that most households should not hold a positive level of annuities and many should hold negative amounts jel d14 d82 g23 i12 j14 j26

priority setting in health care and higher order degree change in risk this paper examines how priority setting in health care expenditures is influenced by the presence of uncertainty about the severity of the illness and the effectiveness of medical treatment we provide necessary and sufficient conditions on social preferences under which a social planner will allocate more health care resources to populations at higher risk changes in risk are defined by the concept of stochastic dominance up to order n the shape of the social utility function and an equity weighting function are used to model the inequality aversion of the social planner we show that for higher order risk changes the usual conditions on preferences such as prudence or relative risk aversion are not necessarily required to prioritise health care when there are different levels of uncertainty associated with otherwise similar patient groups

the effects of product price uncertainty on the owner managed firm theory and evidence in this paper we extend the theory of the owner managed firm to incorporate product price uncertainty and we present an empirical test of the model s predictions under product price uncertainty the trade off between leisure and profit faced by an owner manager is combined with the trade off between surety and risk bearing faced by an entrepreneur the firm s owner bears the uninsurable and undiversifiable risk about profit caused by product price uncertainty and as manager supplies the firm a unique labor factor the model predicts that the substitution effect of an increase in risk on the quantity supplied by the firm is negative the income effect of risk reinforces the substitution effect if the entrepreneur s labor supply has a positive wage elasticity but runs counter to and could dominate the substitution effect if the wage elasticity of labor supply for the entrepreneur is sufficiently negative unlike previous research on price uncertainty and the firm this paper presents an empirical test of the model s predictions using data on physicians in solo practice our empirical analysis indicates that although wage elasticities of labor supply for the physician entrepreneurs are negative greater risk leads to a reduction in output these results suggest that the substitution effect is dominant in determining the response to product price uncertainty for the owner managed firms in our sample frank knight 12 gave prominence to the risk bearing role of the entrepreneur who as residual claimant bears the risk associated with a firm s revenue tibor scitovsky 21 later emphasized a different aspect of entrepreneurial activity the trade off confronted by an ownermanager between consumption of leisure and pursuit of profit both models of the entrepreneur are relevant to predicting the behavior of an owner managed firm operating in a risky environment the entrepreneur in such a firm must choose between consuming leisure and supplying labor which provides an uncertain return the random residual of revenue net of payments to other factors

are americans saving optimally for retirement we solve each household s optimal saving decisions using a life cycle model that incorporates uncertain lifetimes uninsurable earnings and medical expenses progressive taxation government transfers and pension and social security benefits with optimal decision rules we compare household by household wealth predictions from the life cycle model using a nationally representative sample we find making use of household specific earnings histories that the model accounts for more than 80 percent of the 1992 cross sectional variation in wealth fewer than 20 percent of households have less wealth than their optimal targets and the wealth deficit of those who are undersaving is generally small

aging and health financing in the u s a general equilibrium analysis abstract we quantify the effects of population aging on the u s healthcare system our analysis is based on a stochastic general equilibrium overlapping generations model of endogenous health accumulation calibrated to match pre 2010 u s data we find that population aging not only leads to large increases in medical spending but also a large shift in the relative size of private vs public insurance without the affordable care act aca aging by itself leads to a 40 increase in health expenditures by 2060 and a 9 6 increase in gdp which is mainly driven by the increase of the fraction of older higher risk individuals in the economy as well as behavioral responses to aging and the subsequent expansion of the healthcare sector aging increases the premium in group based health insurance ghi markets and enrollment in ghi decreases while the individual based health insurance ihi market medicaid and medicare expand significantly the size of medicare will almost double by 2060 as the elderly dependency ratio increases additional funds equivalent to roughly 2 7 of gdp are required to finance medicare and medicaid the introduction of the aca increases the fraction of insured workers to almost 100 by 2060 compared to 82 without the aca this increase is driven by the stabilization of ghi markets and the further expansions of medicaid and the ihi market the aca mitigates the increase of healthcare costs by reducing the number of the uninsured who pay the highest market price for healthcare services overall the aca adds to the fiscal cost of population aging mainly via the medicaid expansion our findings demonstrate the importance of accounting for behavioral responses structural changes in the healthcare sector and general equilibrium adjustments when assessing the economy wide effects of aging

timing of investment and international expansion performance in china this study examines the multivariate and univariate performance effects of timing of fdi in an emerging economy at the business unit level a longitudinal analysis of industry wide firm specific data on fdi timing and foreign venture performance in china reveals that timing has a significant influence on overall as well as on individual aspects of venture performance it is observed that early entrants outperform late movers in terms of local market expansion and asset turnover whereas late movers are superior to early entrants with regard to risk reduction and accounting return during the initial period of international expansion factor analysis confirms that the importance of timing in affecting fdi decisions is as significant as that of internalization ownership or location factors

internalization an event study test abstract the internalization theory of multinational firms proposes that direct international investment occurs when a firm has information related intangible assets with public good properties we find that firms with characteristics suggesting the presence of information based assets experience a significantly positive stock price reaction upon announcing a foreign acquisition on the other hand firms apparently lacking such assets experience at best zero abnormal returns upon announcing overseas acquisitions

a superior measure of consumption from the panel study of income dynamics abstract this paper provides a simple technique for assigning a measure of total consumption to households in the panel study of income dynamics psid using regressions from the consumer expenditure surveys of 1972 1973 and 1983 linear predictions of total consumption are estimated which are stable over time and explain up to 78 percent of the total variance in consumption

long term care utility and late in life saving older wealth holders spend down assets much more slowly than predicted by classic life cycle models this paper introduces health dependent utility into a model with incomplete markets in which pre

the effect of national culture on the choice of entry mode characteristics of national cultures have frequently been claimed to influence the selection of entry modes this article investigates this claim by developing a theoretical argument for why culture should influence the choice of entry two hypotheses are derived which relate culture to entry mode choice one focusing on the cultural distance between countries the other on attitudes towards uncertainty avoidance using a multinomial logit model and controlling for other effects the hypotheses are tested by analysing data on 228 entries into the united states market by acquisition wholly owned greenfield and joint venture empirical support for the effect of national culture on entry choice is found

do welfare asset limits affect household saving evidence from welfare reform we use data from the panel study of income dynamics to estimate the effect of new saving incentives implemented as part of the 1996 welfare reform on household saving economic theory predicts that loosening asset limits will increase total savings for households with a large ex ante probability of welfare receipt such as female headed households with children we follow a sample of female heads with children and find that in both absolute terms and relative to comparison groups of male heads and female heads without children there has been no effect of welfare policy changes on the saving of at risk households

a life cycle model of unemployment and disability insurance abstract a general equilibrium life cycle model is developed in which individuals choose a sequence of saving and labor supply faced with search frictions and uncertainty in longevity health status and medical expenditures unemployed individuals decide whether to apply for disability insurance di benefits if eligible we investigate the effects of cash transfer and in kind medicare component of the di system on the life cycle employment without medicare benefits di coverage could fall significantly we also study how di interacts with reforms of social security and medicare and find that di enrollment amplifies the effects of reforms

impact of health savings accounts on precautionary savings demand for health insurance and prevention effort the paper examines the influence of health savings accounts hsas on optimal savings insurance demand and prevention effort over the course of a lifetime this paper adds to the literature by investigating hsas as both a form of insurance and as saving vehicle in an expected utility framework assuming no regulatory constraints on the deductible we show that individuals voluntarily choose a positive deductible and increase their savings with hsas if the government imposed minimum deductible becomes too great however individuals may instead choose to remain in traditional insurance we determine the effect of hsas on prevention effort we find that an increased tax subsidy may worsen moral hazard issues assuming partial risk aversion to be less than or equal to one individuals will either invest less in the health preservation effort and more money in the hsa or vice versa however they will never increase both effort and savings simultaneously as was intended when hsas were introduced

intertemporal substitution in labor supply evidence from micro data the sensitivity of the supply of labor to intertemporal variation in the wage is an important issue in macroeconomics the analysis of social security and pensions and the study of life cycle patterns of work this paper explores two approaches to the measurement of intertemporal substitution that have appeared in the literature the first approach is to use consumption to control for wealth and unobserved expectations about future wages in the labor supply equation the second approach is to estimate a first difference equation for hours in which labor supply from the previous period serves as a control for wealth and wage expectations the results indicate that intertemporal substitution elasticity for married men is positive but small

national health insurance and precautionary saving evidence from taiwan abstract by reducing uncertainty about future medical expenses comprehensive health insurance can reduce households precautionary saving we examine this effect using taiwan micro data spanning the 1995 introduction of national health insurance the effects of national health insurance are identified using employment based variation in prior insurance coverage replacement of the households prior insurance coverage with national health insurance is exogenous to the household so our estimates are not subject to selection bias compared with the preceding government insurance programs national health insurance reduced saving by an average of 8 6 13 7 with the largest effects for households with the smallest saving

performance following changes of international presence in domestic and transition industries we examine relationships between firm performance and changes in international presence in five medical sector industries between 1978 and 1989 conditioned on the international status of the industries and the market position of the firms international expansion was necessary for survival when foreign firms began to enter a domestic market but only firms with substantial market share and international experience gained prior to the industry transition could expand successfully operating only in the home market may permit a firm to survive in a primarily domestic industry but moderate international expansion often brings current benefits and provides a base for future success should the industry become more global however expansion carries the risk of failure firms that retrench after expanding internationally disappear

medicaid insurance in old age the old age provisions of the medicaid program were designed to insure retirees against medical expenses we estimate a structural model of savings and medical spending and use it to compute the distribution of lifetime medicaid transfers and medicaid valuations across currently single retirees compensating variation calculations indicate that current retirees value medicaid insurance at more than its actuarial cost but that most would value an expansion of the current medicaid program at less than its cost these findings suggest that for current single retirees the medicaid program may be of the approximately right size

international strategies of non dominant firms there has been a growing interest in how follower firms can compete with industry leaders this article documents the use of international strategies by some non dominant firms to avoid direct competition with industry leaders twenty five cases of international strategies used by non dominant firms in a variety of industries were cluster analyzed to identify common strategies seven different strategies were identified together with their attendant firm characteristics stage of industry internationalization and underlying competitive logic

the life cycle model of consumption and saving a central implication of life cycle models is that agents smooth consumption we review the empirical evidence on smoothing at frequencies from within the year up to across a lifetime we find that life cycle models particular those which incorporate realistic features of markets and goods have more empirical successes than failures we also show that some apparent deviations from theoretical predictions imply very small welfare losses for agents finally we emphasize that the coherence of life cycle models imposes an important discipline when incorporating new features into models

should social security benefits be means tested social security retirement benefits distort the saving decisions of workers who are rational enough to save for their future since the implicit rate of return in an unfunded social security program is less than the marginal product of capital the resulting decline in saving causes a welfare loss the present paper examines the conditions under which the welfare loss could be reduced by replacing the current universal social security program with a means tested program that pays benefits only to those individuals with little or no other retirement income or assets every society must solve the problem of supporting those individuals who become too old to work but have not made adequate provision for their own old age by saving when they were young at the present time the major industrial countries of the world have responded to this problem by creating social security programs that tax the working population and use the proceeds to provide a universal benefit to all retirees regardless of their financial condition this universal provision of social security benefits distorts the saving decisions of those workers who are rational enough to plan for the future since the implicit rate of return that taxpayers get on their this research is part of the nber study of the government budget and the private economy a more complete version of this paper with some numerical calculations is available as nber working paper no 1775 feldstein 1985b i am grateful to gilbert metcalf for assistance with the calculations presented in this paper and for helpful discussions for a discussion of the effect of promised retirement benefits on the savings of employees see feldstein 1974 1982 barro 1974 1978 has discussed an interesting

wait and see strategy risk management in the internationalization process model we interpret the wait and see strategy as a decision to maintain unchanged the firm s commitments to its business network relationships to explain why firms choose a wait and see strategy we propose an extension to the relationship commitment decisions aspect of the uppsala internationalization process ip model with this development we explain that the wait and see strategy can result from a change in the levels of risk assumed in the firm and not only from the decision to adjust the risk that the firm encounters by changing commitments to its network relationships this development enhances the ability of the ip model to accommodate contextual influences on relationship commitment decisions and to explain a more complete suite of internationalization trajectories extending the theoretical core of the ip model further confirms its efficacy its application to international strategy and its potential to be developed as a general process model of strategic change

dynamic wage and employment effects of elder parent care this article formulates and estimates a dynamic discrete choice model of elder parent care and work to analyze how caregiving affects a woman s current and future labor force participation and wages the model incorporates parental health changes human capital accumulation and job offer availability the estimates indicate that women face low probabilities of returning to work or increasing work hours after a caregiving spell i use the estimated model to simulate the caregiving employment and welfare effects of a longer unpaid work leave than currently available under the family and medical leave act a paid leave and a caregiver allowance

the annuity puzzle remains a puzzle abstract we examine incomplete annuity menus background risk bequest motives and default risk as possible drivers of divergence from full annuitization contrary to what is often suggested in the literature we find that full annuitization remains optimal if saving is possible after retirement this holds irrespective of whether real or only nominal annuities are available whenever liquidity is desired individuals save sizeable amounts out of their annuity income to smooth consumption shocks similarly adding equity linked annuities to the menu does not increase welfare significantly since individuals can invest in stocks in order to get the desired equity exposure

the effects of health wealth and wages on labour supply and retirement behaviour this paper estimates a life cycle model of labour supply retirement and savings behaviour in which future health status and wages are uncertain individuals face a fixed cost of work and cannot borrow against future labour pension or social security income the method of simulated moments is used to match the life cycle profiles of labour force participation hours worked and assets that are estimated from the data to those that are generated by the model the model establishes that the tax structure of the social security system and pensions are key determinants of the high observed job exit rates at ages 62 and 65 removing the tax wedge embedded in the social security earnings test for individuals aged 65 and older would delay job exit by almost one year by contrast social security benefit levels health and borrowing constraints are less important determinants of job exit at older ages for example reducing social security benefits by 20 would cause workers to delay exit from the labour force by only three months

optimal mandates and the welfare cost of asymmetric information evidence from the u k annuity market much of the extensive empirical literature on insurance markets has focused on whether adverse selection can be detected once detected however there has been little attempt to quantify its welfare cost or to assess whether and what potential government interventions may reduce these costs to do so we develop a model of annuity contract choice and estimate it using data from the u k annuity market the model allows for private information about mortality risk as well as heterogeneity in preferences over different contract options we focus on the choice of length of guarantee among individuals who are required to buy annuities the results suggest that asymmetric information along the guarantee margin reduces welfare relative to a first best symmetric information benchmark by about 127 million per year or about 2 percent of annuitized wealth we also find that by requiring that individuals choose the longest guarantee period allowed mandates could achieve the first best allocation however we estimate that other mandated guarantee lengths would have detrimental effects on welfare since determining the optimal mandate is empirically difficult our findings suggest that achieving welfare gains through mandatory social insurance may be harder in practice than simple theory may suggest

healthy bodies and thick wallets the dual relation between health and economic status there is abundant evidence of a quantitatively large association between many measures of economic status including income and wealth and a variety of health outcomes such as mortality or morbidity however considerable and often heated debate remains especially across disciplines about the direction of causation and about why the association arises although medical scientists are often convinced that the dominant if not exclusive pathway is that variation in socioeconomic status produces health disparities they are increasingly debating among themselves about why low economic status might lead to poor health at least for modern industrial countries 1 the old standby arguments the less well to do have access to less or lower quality medical care or a stronger pattern of deleterious personal behaviors have been rejected as insufficient instead a series of intriguing competing theories have arisen that emphasize long term impacts of early childhood or even inter uterine environmental factors the cumulative effects of prolonged exposures to individual stressful events or reactions to macro societal factors such as rising levels of income inequality a common link is that each theory attempts to document the physiological processes through which low economic status leads to poorer health while these scientific questions are extremely important this research has taken place with little input from economists economists are now making contributions about the alternative pathway the impact poor health may have on economic resources poor health may restrict a family s capacity to earn income or to accumulate assets by limiting work or by raising medical expenses at a minimum this work should provide a caution against exaggerating the magnitude of causation from economic status to health outcomes but the potential contribution runs deeper as people age the evolving variation in individual health outcomes may offer additional statistical information to estimate parameters of household savings and consumption behavior that so far have proven to be somewhat elusive thus incorporating health uncertainty and risk into economic models should eventually enrich our understanding of basic tenets of household behavior the first section of this paper documents the size of the association between health and one prominent economic status measure household wealth section two deals with how health influences economic status by sketching out reasons why health may alter household savings and eventually wealth and then providing estimates of the empirical magnitude of these effects section three shifts attention to the alternative pathway the links between economic status and health and summarizes 2major controversies and evidence surrounding these issues

on output price uncertainty and the comparative statics of industry equilibrium the analysis of firm response to output price variability has until recently been incomplete due to a failure to consider explicitly the effect of firm response on the attainment of competitive equilibrium at the industry level a recent paper by appelbaum and katz 1 has addressed the issue of industry equilibrium under output price uncertainty they show how the optimal number of firms might change through the process of exit and entry and they characterize the collective influence of firms decisions on expected market price however their analysis focuses on firms with a single stage production process which allows no production flexibility in the form of adjustment of output levels after output price is revealed an earlier paper by hartman 3 has shown that at the firm level the optimal response to output price uncertainty will depend on whether production flexibility exists specifically if firms employ a two stage production process which is characterized by the presence of a quasi fixed factor then firm level output may increase or decrease in response to changes in output price variability even if firms are risk neutral the assumption that production flexibility exists changes those results initially developed by sandmo 7 and applied more recently by appelbaum and katz 1 which are based on a single stage production process this paper provides an extension of the appelbaum and katz analysis to admit production flexibility equivalently it extends the analysis of hartman to consider explicitly the effect of firm response on the attainment of competitive equilibrium at the industry level appelbaum and katz show that for an industry of identical risk averse firms with a singlestage production technology the effect of a mean preserving increase in price uncertainty is to decrease industry output and to raise market price a more recent comment by ishii 5 shows that output per firm will also fall yet none of these authors shows unambiguously whether the number of firms increases or decreases although not explicitly stated the analysis in appelbaum and katz suggests there would be no firm or industry response to a mean preserving change in price spread if firms were risk neutral expected profit maximizers the model employed in this paper is analogous to that of appelbaum and katz with two principal exceptions i here an industry is composed of firms all of which are either risk neutral

what accounts for the variation in retirement wealth among u s households even among households with similar socioeconomic characteristics saving and wealth vary considerably life cycle models attribute this variation to differences in time preference rates risk tolerance exposure to uncertainty relative tastes for work and leisure at advanced ages and income replacement rates these factors have testable implications concerning the relation between accumulated wealth and the shape of the consumption profile using the panel study of income dynamics and the consumer expenditure survey we find little support for these implications the data are instead consistent with rule of thumb mental accounting or hyperbolic discounting theories of wealth accumulation jel di d91 e21

the deterrence effects of vicarious punishments on corporate financial fraud this study extends the research on corporate financial fraud by developing a new perspective on the deterrence effects of vicarious punishments premised on social learning theory we posit that firms vicariously learn about punishments from their peers by picking up modeling cues environmental cues and social cues in the inhibitive learning process thus being deterred from committing future fraudulence using a matched sample of 604 observations of chinese listed firms between 2002 and 2008 our findings show that an observing firm is deterred from committing fraud if the peers in its industry are caught and punished we further find that such deterrence effects are subject to how the observing firm evaluates the possibility of being caught and the likelihood it will be punished the same way if it violates similar prohibitions in particular inhibitive learning effects are positively moderated by punishments of prominent firms and model observer similarity but negatively attenuated by the development of the legal system our study sheds light on the corporate fraud literature by illuminating the indirect inhibitive learning process from vicarious punishments and identifying the conditions for differential learning deterrence outcomes of the observing firms

the utility of health and wealth abstract tradeoffs between health and wealth are among the most important decisions individuals make and are central to social and economic policy yet only a few studies have investigated the utility of health and wealth empirically this paper investigates this utility function both theoretically and empirically we conduct detailed personal interviews with 180 cancer patients and also obtain questionnaires from 132 diabetes patients we find strong support for the utility function u h w h log w where h denotes health and w denotes wealth

does means testing welfare discourage saving evidence from a change in afdc policy in the united states abstract this paper provides empirical evidence on the impact of a welfare program s asset test on the saving behavior of its target population the approach exploits a policy experiment the essential federalization of the afdc program s asset testing policy in 1981 data on female headed households from the national longitudinal survey young women are used to test the hypothesis that likely afdc users adjusted their asset stocks in response to this change the findings indicate additional saving between 1978 and 1983 of about 25 cents for each additional 1 increase in the limit in most states

saving response to unemployment of a sibling abstract standard theoretical models of household saving behavior do not typically assume that household perceptions of the world change in response to observed events in light of the potential importance of such perception changes e g after a financial crisis this paper considers the hypothesis that a household s saving rate rises through informal learning after a sibling direct or in law has been unemployed the empirical results in this paper are consistent with the learning hypothesis with coefficients estimated by the instrumental variable iv method implying that a household s saving rate increases by 2 3 percentage points if a sibling has been unemployed

uncertain health and survival effects on end of life consumption this article analyzes the impact of health and survival uncertainty on the saving and consumption decisions of retirees a dynamic programming approach is used to model the household s planning problem the utility parameters are estimated using panel data we find that a fall into poor health raises the marginal utility from consumption simulations are used to indicate the effects of falling into poor health and loss of spouse they reveal a large transfer from the healthy to the sick partner and a strong dependence of saving on the survivor benefits suggesting that concern about the surviving spouse is an important motive for saving

the retirement savings puzzle reviewed the role of housing and bequests the so called retirement savings puzzle is a phenomenon by which contrary to what the standard life cycle model predicts households do not run down their wealth significantly during retirement in this review paper we survey the literature on the retirement savings puzzle and we connect it with the literature on housing equity during retirement to establish a link between these two streams of literature we use as a framework the work of nakajima and telyukova 2013a home equity in retirement ucsd working paper and nakajima and telyukova 2017 reverse mortgage loans a quantitative analysis journal of finance 72 911 950 who find that home ownership interacts with factors that explain the retirement savings puzzle notably with the bequest motive we complement the results by nakajima and telyukova by relating them to the literature on altruistic bequests strategic bequests and housing as a commitment device all of which give further insights on the connection between home ownership and bequests we complement our review of the literature with descriptive evidence using the netherlands as a case study

uncertain lifetime consumption and dissaving in retirement this paper asks whether the continued accumulation or mild dissaving observed among the retired can be explained by uncertain lifetime in the absence of annuities after an initial period influenced by borrowing constraints under constant relative risk aversion uncertain lifetime depresses consumption by a proportion increasing with age if the elasticity of intertemporal substitution in consumption is small illustrative computations based on actual income and survival data show that plausible elasticities are sufficiently small to give this effect the reduction in consumption is large enough to explain much of the lack of decumulation by the elderly

heterogeneity of the effects of health insurance on household savings evidence from rural china summary we estimate the impact of the new cooperative medical scheme ncms on household savings by income quartiles in rural china we control for endogenous ncms participation with an instrumental variable strategy using the china health and nutrition survey we find that ncms has a negative impact on middle income savings but does not affect the poorest participants ncms also decreases richest participants savings when they do not benefit from other health programs thus the implementation of a health care scheme appears to be an appropriate tool to lower savings and boost consumption and so sustain economic growth

gaining ground poverty in the postwar united states official measures of poverty in the united states are compiled by the bureau of the census by comparing a household s income level to a prespecified threshold from a theoretical perspective it is more appropriate to evaluate the level of poverty using a consumption based measure of household welfare in this paper i evaluate the level of poverty using expenditure data from the consumer expenditure survey i find that consumption based poverty rates are much lower than those based on income the trend in the poverty rate in the united states is sensitive to the price index and equivalence scales used to adjust the poverty thresholds

the effects of 401 k participation on the wealth distribution an instrumental quantile regression analysis we use instrumental quantile regression approach to examine the effects of 401 k plans on wealth using data from the survey of income and program participation using 401 k eligibility as an inst

death of the lethargic effects of expansion into new technical subfields on performance in a firm s base business this paper finds that industry incumbents that do not expand into new technical subfields tend to fare poorly in their established businesses even if the market for the established products continues to exist firms that expand from their established businesses survive longer and achieve greater subsequent market share than competitors that do not expand by some measures however a failed attempt to expand into a new subfield may be even more harmful to a base business than nonexpansion the study employs conventional and accelerated event time regression models to analyze market share and survival the sample which includes 371 incumbents in four base subfields of the medical diagnostic imaging industry between 1953 and 1989 examines performance following the emergence of five new technical subfields of the industry

estimating health demand for an aging population a flexible and robust bayesian joint model in this paper we analyse two frequently used measures of the demand for health care namely hospital visits and out of pocket health care expenditure which have been analysed separately in the existing literature given that these two measures of healthcare demand are highly likely to be closely correlated we propose a framework to jointly model hospital visits and out of pocket medical expenditure furthermore the joint framework allows for the presence of non linear effects of covariates using splines to capture the effects of aging on healthcare demand sample heterogeneity is modelled robustly with the random effects following dirichlet process priors with explicit cross part correlation the findings of our empirical analysis of the u s health and retirement survey indicate that the demand for healthcare varies with age and gender and exhibits significant cross part correlation that provides a rich understanding of how aging affects health care demand which is of particular policy relevance in the context of an aging population

precautionary saving in the small and in the large the theory of precautionary saving is shown to be isomorphic to the arrow pratt theory of risk aversion making possible the application of a large body of knowledge about risk aversion to precautionary saving and more generally to the theory of optimal choice under risk in particular a measure of the strength of the precautionary saving motive analogous to the arrow pratt measure of risk aversion is used to establish a number of new propositions about precautionary saving and to give a new interpretation of the dreze modigliani substitution effect copyright 1990 by the econometric society

health insurance eligibility utilization of medical care and child health two economists applied data from the current population survey and the national health interview survey and state level data on child mortality to a simulation model of utilization of medical care that varies only with the states legislative environment to examine the utilization of medical care and health effects of medicaid eligibility on low income children the models took into consideration the recent expansions of medicaid to low income children 38 of those ineligible for medicaid in 1984 who became eligible due to changes during 1984 1992 were uninsured between 1984 and 1992 expansions of the medicaid program increased the proportion of children eligible for medicaid almost two fold 16 1 vs 31 2 yet coverage rates were always lower than eligibility rates 13 2 vs 16 1 in 1984 and 20 3 vs 31 2 in 1992 and the increase in coverage rates was only about 50 of the increase in eligibility rates during 1984 1992 the probability that a child was eligible for medicaid increased the probability of health insurance coverage by 29 77 when the model considered bias in variables e g a recession in a state the take up rate was only 22 73 nevertheless medicaid markedly increased use of medical care for example eligibility for medicaid increased the likelihood of making a visit to a physicians office in the last two weeks by about 50 it also increased the probability of a child visiting the hospital suggesting inefficiency in the way that providers deliver care to medicaid enrollees medicaid eligibility had a significant effect on reducing child mortality the 15 1 percentage point increase in eligibility during 1984 1992 reduced child mortality by 4 5 when the researchers examined parent assessed subjective health measures medicaid eligibility had no effect on child health medicaid eligibility reduced race and education based disparities in the number of visits and racial differences in mortality yet it may actually intensify current disparities in health care delivery site