bank loan portfolios and the monetary transmission mechanism abstract we study the portfolio behavior of bank loans following a monetary tightening and find that real estate and consumer loans sharply decrease while commercial and industrial c i loans increase these responses are compared with responses following non monetary shocks which also reduce output but keep interest rates roughly unchanged during such a non monetary downturn c i loans sharply decrease while real estate and consumer loans show no substantial response these responses together with the responses of relevant lending rates are hard to reconcile with a decline in the supply of c i bank loans during a monetary downturn as stressed by the bank lending channel several arguments are presented explaining why the supply of c i loans may actually increase after a monetary contraction

development of financial markets and the size distribution of manufacturing establishments international comparisons abstract institutional determinants have largely been neglected in explaining international differences in the size distribution of manufacturing establishments this paper draws on recent developments in institutional analysis to derive certain hypotheses concerning the way in which the size distribution within manufacturing is affected by the degree of development of the markets for debt and equity these hypotheses are tested on the basis of an international cross section of 54 countries the results are generally supportive of the hypotheses especially in the case of developing countries

determinants of inter firm technology licensing in the eu this article investigates the determinants of technology licensing focusing on how country specific characteristics affect technology holders incentives to sell their proprietary technologies through licensing alliances an empirical examination of licensing is done using a unique panel data set of licensing transactions involving companies in the eu the strength of intellectual property rights ipr protection the degree of economic freedom the level of country risk and the number of patent granted in the country are found to be important determinants of inter firm technology licensing in addition firms with prior independent experience as a licensor and public companies tend to license technology more

credit policy inflation and growth in a financially repressed economy this report analyzes credit policy in an open economy macro model incorporating stylized facts about the financial sector of ldc s absence of security markets existence of a curbmarket these facts are incorporated in the financial sector part of a keynes wicksell growth model it focuses on a transmission channel of monetary policy into the supply side of the economy via the cost of working capital it shows that ignoring this effect when analysing restrictive credit policy leads to underestimates of inflation and overestimation of output and current account improvements it is shown that a credit crunch can be stagflationary in the short run a cut in the real stock of credit is shown to lead to a lower steady state capital stock

subsistence response to market shocks microeconomic models posit that transaction costs isolate subsistence producers from output market shocks we integrate microeconomic models of many heterogeneous households into a general equilibrium model and show that supply on subsistence farms may respond in apparently perverse ways to changes in output market prices price shocks in markets for staple goods are transmitted to subsistence producers through interactions in factor markets in the case presented a decrease in the market price of maize reduces wages and land rents stimulating maize production by subsistence households however real incomes of subsistence households fall

technological capabilities and industrialization abstract this paper reviews the implications for industrial strategy of recent research on technological capabilities at the firm and national levels after exploring the nature and determinants of microlevel technological development a simple framework for explaining the growth of national capabilities is set out based on the interplay of incentives capabilities and institutions each may suffer market failure and so require corrective intervention the experience of some industrializing countries is described to assess the validity of this framework it is concluded that interventions carefully and selectively applied are necessary for industrial success

a structuralist perspective on the role of technology in economic growth and development abstract this paper presents an integrated view of what is termed a structuralist perspective to economic growth and development that stands in contrast to the mainstream orthodox or neoclassical view in the structuralist view structural changes are causes of growth rather than outcomes of a process of capital accumulation and of rising per capita incomes moreover the growth process may be punctuated by periods of discrete shifts in resource allocation creative destruction and growth acceleration rather than being smooth throughout structural changes need not be automatic they require a skill specific infrastructure of new capabilities which when established generate new comparative advantages market failures may be pervasive due to problems of human capital accumulation critical mass and discrete choice among alternative growth paths thus in addition to creating a favorable environment for business and assuring through macroeconomic policy adequate investment successful growth may require an adequate industrial and technological policy particularly at nodes of structural change the paper surveys the structuralist insights appearing in the literature starting with the early postwar economic development literature and including recently developed formal models it also proposes a kinked or scalloped aggregate production function as a simple tool for structuralist analysis

the government financial system and large private enterprises in the economic development of south korea abstract the paper investigates the main characteristics of the government business relationship in south korea in the past three decades to find out how it may have contributed to south korea s economic development it proposes that the government and large private enterprises in south korea should be viewed as constituting an internal organization namely a quasi internal organization as such extensive intervention by the government with south korea s financial system can be viewed as an internal capital market and consequently it could have led to a more efficient allocation of credit than possible in a free market financial system it also argues that the quasi internal organization has made it possible for the government to efficiently implement its developmental policies it is however pointed out that for the quasi internal organization to be successful in accelerating the pace of economic development the country must have a political leadership committed to the goal of economic development and must adopt an outward oriented development policy

interpreting the macroeconomic time series facts the effects of monetary policy existing theory and evidence on the effects of monetary policy are reviewed substantial room for disagreement among economists remains new evidence based on multivariate time series studies of several countries is presented while certain patterns in the data consistent with effective monetary policy are strikingly similar across countries others particularly the tendency of interest rate increases to predict high inflation are harder to reconcile with effective monetary policy

the interest elasticity of savings in developing countries the existing evidence abstract this paper presents a critical analysis of some of the most recent empirical work on the interest elasticity of savings in developing economies supported by a set of empirical results the paper argues that a the real interest elasticity of savings is not easily detected using the existing empirical models which generally yield insignificant interest rate parameters in the seventies b the existing models suffer from serious defects that make if very difficult to interpret the estimated parameters

banking reform and the financing of firm investment an empirical analysis of the chilean experience 1983 92 this article investigates whether the chilean banking reforms of the 1980s have contributed to reducing market imperfections in chilean financial markets in the late 1980 and early 1990s to analyse this issue patterns of investment and its finance for different types of firms are studied based on balance sheet information of a panel of 70 firms the most important conclusion is that those specific reforms aimed at reducing intra conglomerate lending seem to have been successful since access of non conglomerate firms has increased indicating a reduction of existing market imperfections for such firms

financial restriction and the developmental state in east asia toward a more complex political economy recent financial crises in asia have renewed debates over the appropriate degree and scope of government intervention in financial markets governments in two countries affected by financial crises

are foreign institutional investors good for emerging markets in den 1990er jahren waren die portfolio flows institutioneller investoren die dynamischsten kapitalstrome in die emerging markets in dieser arbeit leiten wir in einem rahmen asymmetrischer information funf aussagen ab stellen diese in einen zusammenhang mit der existierenden empirischen literatur und entwickeln daraus entsprechende wirtschaftspolitische implikationen die undurchsichtige informationslage auf den emerging markets behindert vor allem auslandische marktteilnehmer daruber hinaus konnen institutionelle investoren in folge finanzwirtschaftlicher offnung die position lokaler investoren unabsichtlich durch unausgewogene diversifikation und undurchsichtige risiken verschlechtern schlieslich verstarken institutionelle investoren aus dem ausland oft investitionsbooms oder finanzielle ansteckung deshalb sollten kapitalverkehrs und finanzielle liberalisierung stets von sorgfaltiger regulierung begleitet werden

the evolution of a financial crisis collapse of the asset backed commercial paper market this paper documents runs on asset backed commercial paper abcp programs in 2007 we find that one third of programs experienced a run within weeks of the onset of the abcp crisis and that runs as well as yields and maturities for new issues were related to program level and macro financial risks these findings are consistent with the asymmetric information framework used to explain banking panics have implications for commercial paper investors degree of risk intolerance and inform empirical predictions of recent papers on dynamic coordination failures

a revised tobit procedure for mitigating bias in the presence of non zero censoring with an application to milk market participation in the ethiopian highlands fixed transactions costs that prohibit exchange engender bias in supply analysis due to censoring of the sample observations the associated bias in conventional regression procedures applied to censored data and the construction of robust methods for mitigating bias have been preoccupations of applied economists since tobin econometrica 26 1958 24 this literature assumes that the true point of censoring in the data is zero and when this is not the case imparts a bias to parameter estimates of the censored regression model we conjecture that this bias can be significant affirm this from experiments and suggest techniques for mitigating this bias using bayesian procedures the bias mitigating procedures are based on modifications of the key step that facilitates bayesian estimation of the censored regression model are easy to implement work well in both small and large samples and lead to significantly improved inference in the censored regression model these findings are important in light of the widespread use of the zero censored tobit regression and we investigate their consequences using data on milk market participation in the ethiopian highlands

how capital regulation and other factors drive the role of shadow banking in funding short term business credit abstract this paper empirically analyzes how capital regulation risk and other factors altered the relative use of shadow banking funded short term business debt since the early 1960s results indicate that the share was affected over the long run not only by changing information and reserve requirement costs but also by shifts in relative regulation of bank versus nonbank credit sources such as basel i in 1990 and reregulation in 2010 in the short run the shadow bank share rose when deposit interest rate ceilings were binding on traditional banks the economic outlook improved or risk premia declined and fell when event risks arose

an international comparison of capital structure and debt maturity choices this study examines how the institutional environment influences capital structure and debt maturity choices of firms in 39 developed and developing countries we find that a country s legal and tax system corruption and the preferences of capital suppliers explain a significant portion of the variation in leverage and debt maturity ratios specifically firms in more corrupt countries and those with weaker laws tend to use more debt especially short term debt explicit bankruptcy codes and deposit insurance are associated with higher leverage and more long term debt more debt is used in countries where there is a greater tax gain from leverage

a dynamic stochastic frontier model to evaluate regional financial efficiency evidence from chinese county level panel data abstract studies have widely used stochastic frontier models to assess financial efficiency however traditional static approaches do not take dynamic characteristics of financial systems into account this article develops a dynamic stochastic frontier model to evaluate regional financial efficiency and provides an empirical test of the model by using panel data of 62 chinese counties during the 2001 2010 period the model measures the dynamic impact of the input output variables and environmental variables on financial efficiency and allows for the separation of technical change from the change in technical efficiency the results show that the dynamic model provides a better fit to the data than the static model in addition a gradient difference emerges in the regional financial efficiency among the six major regions of china the results offer practical implications for the development of regional financial services in china as well as other developing countries and emerging economies

loan commitments and optimal monetary policy abstract with loan commitments negotiated in advance the use of tight money to restrain nominal spending has asymmetric effects upon different categories of borrowers this can reduce efficiency even though aggregate demand is stabilized an equilibrium model of financial intermediation with loan commitments is developed and used to analyze the welfare consequences of alternative monetary policies if demand uncertainty relates primarily to the number of borrowers rather than to each one s demand for credit an interest rate smoothing policy is optimal

social networks and factor markets panel data evidence from ethiopia we investigate the role of an indigenous social network in ethiopia the iddir in facilitating factor market transactions among smallholder farmers we use detailed longitudinal household survey data and employ fixed effects estimation approaches to identify the effect of iddir membership on factor market transactions among farmers we find that joining an iddir network improves households access to land labour and credit transactions our findings also hint that iddir networks may crowd out borrowing from local moneylenders locally referred as arata abedari a relatively expensive credit source these results suggest that non market institutions can play crucial roles in facilitating market transactions

loan commitments and monetary policy abstract in this paper we examine the impact of loan commitment agreements on the way in which monetary policy affects the economy we estimate a vector autoregressive var model and find evidence of a smaller impact of monetary policy on loans made under commitment agreements than on loans not made under commitment our conclusion is that loan commitments effectively protect borrowers from quantity credit rationing and thus force monetary policy to work mainly through interest rate channels

fortune favors the prepared firm a critical factor in industrial competitiveness is the ability of firms to exploit new technological developments we term this ability a firm s absorptive capacity and argue that such a capability not only enables a firm to exploit new extramural knowledge but to predict more accurately the nature of future technological advances we develop a stylized model in which we focus exclusively on firms decisions to invest in their absorptive capacities we first examine a monopolist s investment decision analyzing the path dependence of its investment and the effect of uncertainty we then consider the effect of competition by modeling the impact of entry on an incumbent s investment behavior implications for management and public policy are then discussed

the search for a development economics abstract in this paper i first note some of the pieces of evidence that suggest that development has gone reasonably well since the early 1950s then i discuss why this evidence is not fully convincing and examine the content and sources of development failures the main reason why development is so often accompanied by disappointment and tensions is that it is largely an effort to replicate the west rather than an effort to set in motion an indigenous process of change within the traditional sectors themselves the efforts to replace the values and institutions and relationships of the traditional society by imported ones create tensions and uncertainty that can offset the increase in welfare that larger amounts of goods and services could produce if the present less developed countries do not seek to imitate present gnp rich countries what approach is available to them a country must find its own way and to do this it must search it must learn it must choose and it must do all these things in a world with gnp rich countries readily available for imitation the content of these three notions search learning choice is examined in some detail in the last part of the article

good bye financial repression hello financial crash some unintended consequences of financial liberalization in latin america are analyzed in this paper intrinsic imperfectious in financial markets and the policy dilemmas they pose are reviewed first the stylized facts of southern cone experiments in financial liberization are then presented alternative ways of organlzing domestic capital markets under latin american conditions are discussed and an eclectic reform mongering program is proposed

south korean and taiwanese development and the new institutional economics the publication of books by both alice amsden and robert wade provide an opportune moment to reflect on the study of east asian development after an initial surge of interest beginning in the 1970s the field has reached a plateau and scholars recently have cast a wide net in searching for ways to extend the field in assessing the state of the art regarding the economic development of the east asian newly industrialized countries nics this review will treat three themes first i will argue that the focus on states versus markets is becoming stale and that much of the scholarly interest lies in the politics behind the economics second i argue that political scientists have underexplored the historical origins of korean and taiwanese capitalism and that such attention promises to strengthen both theories and explanations of development third i argue that the international system has been more important in promoting development in east asia than accounts in the first wave have recognized the purpose of this review is to assess the field reveal

facts and challenges from the great recession for forecasting and macroeconomic modeling this paper provides a survey of business cycle facts updated to take account of recent data emphasis is given to the great recession which was unlike most other postwar recessions in the united states in being driven by deleveraging and financial market factors we document how recessions with financial market origins are different from those driven by supply or monetary policy shocks this helps explain why economic models and predictors that work well at some times do poorly at other times we discuss challenges for forecasters and empirical researchers in light of the updated business cycle facts

bank lending standards and access to lines of credit this paper examines how changes in bank lending standards are related to the availability of bank lines of credit for private and comparable public firms overall we find that access to lines of credit is more contingent on bank lending standards for private than for public firms the impact of bank lending standards is however asymmetric while private firms are less likely than public firms to gain access to new lines when credit market conditions are tight we find no difference between public and private firms in terms of their use or retention of pre existing lines we also find that private firms without lines of credit use more trade credit when bank lending standards are tight which is suggestive of a supply effect overall the evidence suggests that credit crunches are likely to have a disproportionate impact on private firms however pre existing banking relationships appear to mitigate the impact of these contractions on private firms

exports economic growth and the consolidation of peace in el salvador abstract the pillars of inclusive growth in el salvador have to be nontraditional export growth investment and government determination to reduce income inequality and poverty this article analyzes the key obstacles to the development of a competitive and dynamic export sector dutch disease driven by aid and remittances a significant decline in real wages and lack of productivity growth policies can and must focus on productivity growth rather than wage repression in the pursuit of peace consolidation and long term competitiveness

cyclicality of credit supply firm level evidence abstract we quantify fluctuations in bank loan supply in the time series by studying firms substitution between loans and bonds using firm level data any firm that raises new debt must have a positive demand for external funds conditional on the issuance of new debt we interpret firms switching from loans to bonds as a contraction in bank credit supply we find strong evidence of this substitution at times that are characterized by tight lending standards depressed aggregate lending poor bank performance and tight monetary policy we show that this substitution behavior has strong predictive power for bank borrowing and investments by small firms

the entrepreneurial state evidence from taiwan duvall and freeman 1983 propose an explicit theory to explain the entrepreneurial role of the state in developing societies their argument illuminates linkages between the benefits that an elite group receives from state entrepreneurial activity and the support that this group provides to the state in this article the authors examine theoretically and empirically the ability of their theory to explain the evolution of state entrepreneurship in a rapidly industrializing society taiwan overall the authors show that the formal theory of duvall and freeman holds several features not heretofore explicated but that it is remarkably robust in providing a cogent framework in which to interpret recent taiwanese economic history in short the fit between the model of duvall and freeman and the empirical data for taiwan is quite strong this suggests that state entrepreneurship is used in developing societies in a countercyclical way in order to help manage the political economy the authors also explore the

scale economies wage differentials and north south trade abstract this paper attempts to isolate the effect of external economies of scale in production on the pattern of north south trade the results show that when the relative wage is higher in the north and only the north innovates the south produces and exports those goods with the lowest economies of scale while the remaining set of goods is produced and exported by the north production subsidies offered by the south raise southern income and welfare but if the north introduces a new set of goods the benefits of the subsidies to the south dissolve

externalities in economies with imperfect information and incomplete markets this paper presents a simple general framework for analyzing externalities in economies with incomplete markets and imperfect infonnation by identifying the pecuniary effects of these externalities that net out the paper simplifies the problem of determining when tax interventions are pareto improving the approach indicates that such tax interventions almost always exist and that equilibria in situations of imperfect information are rarely constrained pareto optima it can also lead to simple tests based on readily observable indicators of the efficacy of particular tax policies in situations involving adverse selection signaling moral hazard incomplete contingent claims markets and queue rationing equilibria traditional discussions of externalities have emphasized the distinction between technological externalities in which the action of one individual or firm directly affects the utility or profit ofanother and pecuniary externalities in which one individual s or firm s actions affect another only through effects on prices while the presence of technological externalities imply in general that a competitive equilibrium may not be pareto efficient pecuniary externalities hy themselves are not a source of inefficiency the fact that prices change has of course important consequences there are both distributional and allocational effects but the distribution effects net out gains for example hy firms whose prices increase are precisely offset by losses e g to individuals who must pay higher prices and there are no welfare losses from the allocation effects as long as the price changes involved are small if firms are maximizing profits and individuals are maximizing utility both facing prices that correctly refiect opportunity costs then standard envelope theorem arguments imply that changes in profits or utility induced by changes in allocations resulting from any small change in prices are negligible

business loans and the transmission of monetary policy we study the transmission mechanism of monetary policy through business loans and illustrate subtle aspects of its functioning that relate to the contractual characteristics and the borrower lender types of loans we show that the puzzling increase in business loans in response to monetary tightening documented before the great recession is largely driven by drawdowns from existing commitments at large banks spot loans also rise and take a considerable amount of time to adjust banks nonetheless do curtail credit supply by shortening maturities of new loans following the great recession the mechanism has worked differently with loan responses to monetary tightening displaying a significant downward shift

markets market failures and development a central question in development economics is how can we account for differences in the levels of income and the rates of growth between the developed and less developed economies in the 1950s and 1960s there was a standard answer to this question the poor are just like the rich except they are poorer they have less human and nonhuman capital there was an immediate prescription for this diagnosis increase the resources of ldcs either by transferring capital to them either direct aid or education or by encouraging them to save more today these answers seem less convincing that they did two decades ago if the problem were primarily a shortage of physical capital the return to capital should be much higher in ldcs than in developed countries and the natural avarice of capitalists would lead to a flow of capital from the more developed to the less developed economies see howard pack 1984 and my 1988 paper if the problem were primarily a shortage of human capital then the educated in ldcs should receive a higher absolute as well as relative income than the educated in more developed economies how then can we account for high levels of unemployment among the educated and the migration of the educated from ldcs to more developed economies moreover the predictions of the standard neoclassical growth model of a convergence of growth rates in per capita income with permanent differences in per capita consumption being explained by differences in savings rates and reproduction rates do not seem to have been borne out these observations suggest that the ldcs differ from the developed countries in at least some other important respects and this view is corroborated by those studies which have looked at the productivity of similar plants operating in developed and less developed economies see pack 1984 1987 the difference can be attributed perhaps tautologically to differences in economic organization to how individuals factors of production interact and to the institutions which mediate those interactions among the most important of these institutions are markets it is by now well recognized that there are many instances of market failures in more developed economies see bruce greenwald and myself 1986 in some cases market failures may be ameliorated by nonmarket institutions if for instance capital markets do not function well perfectly if only because of costly and imperfect information nonmarket institutions internal capital markets within large conglomerates may develop market failure is more prevalent in ldcs and the nonmarket institutions that ameliorate its consequences are at least in many instances less successful in doing so the objective of this paper is to explore the causes and consequences of these market failures and the failure of private nonmarket solutions and to suggest possible roles for government intervention tdiscussants anne 0 krueger duke university stanley fischer world bank

the credit effects of monetary policy evidence using loan commitments in addition to the usual channels monetary policy may affect spending by changing the supply of bank loans and the creditworthiness of borrowers this paper tests for these credit effects using a contractual difference across commercial bank loans the author finds that bank loans not made under a commitment slow after tight policy while loans under commitment accelerate or are unchanged this divergence coincides with reports of tighter credit by lenders and by small firms suggesting the divergence reflects a reduction in the supply of credit to the firms without commitments rather than a reduction in their demand for loans

the price puzzle reconsidered abstract a large literature has employed structural vector autoregressive svar models to investigate the empirical effects of u s monetary policy many of these models regularly produce a price puzzle a rise in the aggregate price level in response to a contractionary innovation to monetary policy unless commodity prices are included conventional wisdom maintains that commodity prices resolve the price puzzle because they contain information that helps the federal reserve forecast inflation i examine a number of plausible alternative indicator variables and find little correlation between an ability to forecast inflation and an ability to resolve the price puzzle additionally a sub sample investigation reveals that evidence of a price puzzle is associated primarily with the 1959 1979 sample period and that most indicators including commodity prices cannot resolve the puzzle over this period

savings investment and the corporation in the east asian miracle abstract the east asian countries have achieved a spectacular average rate of economic growth over the last 30 to 40 years with very substantial diversification and economic development korea for example managed to transform itself from being a largely agricultural society in 1960 to the point where it became the third country after the us and japan to export 256 k memory chips developed by its own firms it is no exaggeration to say that the post wwii development of east asia including japan is the most successful story of sustained economic growth in the history of mankind how does one account for this extraordinary economic success

risk attitudes and economic well being in latin america abstract a common conjecture in both the theoretical and policy literatures on development is that people remain poor because they are too impatient and risk averse to accumulate the resources needed to improve their well being the empirical literature however suggests that this conjecture is far from proven we sample more than 3000 participants drawn representatively from six latin american cities and find little correlation between baseline risk aversion and well being measured as an index of eight outcomes we do however find that measures of ambiguity aversion loss aversion and the willingness to take advantage of a risk pooling scheme all correlate with well being participants who are ambiguity averse loss averse and who react conservatively in the risk pooling condition all have significantly lower scores on our well being index these results are robust to the inclusion of a variety of important controls like human capital accumulation and access to credit

deposit rate ceilings and monetary transmission in the us abstract establishing the existence and nature of changes in the conduct and transmission of monetary policy is key in understanding the remarkable macroeconomic performance of the us since the mid 1980s this paper presents evidence on a phenomenon of disintermediation occurring during the major recessions in the 1960s and 1970s but absent ever since and shows that disintermediation is closely linked to the existence of deposit rate ceilings under regulation q in a monetary dsge model that incorporates deposit rate ceilings as occasionally binding constraints the regulation alters the behavior of money aggregates and exacerbates the drop in economic activity following a monetary tightening the results of a threshold var lend support to the main theoretical predictions of the model

inefficiencies from financial liberalization in the absence of well functioning equity markets since the seminal works by mckinnon 1973 and shaw 1973 there has been active research into the working of financially repressed economies and the beneficial effects of elnancial liberalization see fry 1982 for a survey of literature they claim that liberalization of the elnancial sector from interest rate ceilings and other restrictions facilitates economic development and growth because higher interest rates lead to both increased savings and greater efficiency of capital allocation today the idea that financial activity should not be repressed has become the new orthodoxy in academia as well as in the major international institutions that provide policy guidelines for developing countries the elnancial liberalization argument however is incomplete the literature on emancial liberalization has emphasized eliminating interest rate ceilings and fostering free competition among banks it has largely overlooked the possibility that endogenous constraints in the credit market such as imperfect information could be signielcant barriers to efelcient credit allocation even when banks are freed from interest rate ceilings nor has the literature dealt with market structure e g the oligopolistic and cartelized banking systems found in most locs the literature has emphasized the role of the banking sector which is correctly perceived as the only organized capital market in most developing countries it has neglected the potential

trade and structural change nics and next tier nics as transitional economies abstract the paper finds a strong association between rapid change in the sectoral composition of output and exports structural change and rapid export growth in the newly industrializing countries capital formation appears to be encouraged in dynamic economies by the underpricing of investment goods vis a vis consumption and government goods within these economies also the underpricing of investment goods in dynamic economies is relatively greater than in less dynamic economies whereas other research has found low price distortion to be associated with high growth and an outward rather than an inward looking orientation these associations are seriously challenged and more caution is urged in reaching generalized conclusions

bayesian methods for dynamic multivariate models if dynamic multivariate models are to be used to guide decisionmaking it is important that probability assessments of forecasts or policy projections be provided when identified bayesian vector autoregression var models are presented with error bands in the existing literature both conceptual and numerical problems have not been dealt with in an internally consistent way in this paper the authors develop methods to introduce prior information in both reduced form and structural var models without introducing substantial new computational burdens their approach makes it feasible to use a single large dynamic framework for example twenty variable models for tasks of policy projections copyright 1998 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

solving the price puzzle with an alternative indicator of monetary policy we identify the effects of monetary policy shocks on macroeconomic variables in vars using the divisia m4 measure of money as the policy indicator variable we obtain theoretically sensible responses whether or not a commodity price index is included thus we eliminate the well known empirical puzzles from the var by a novel choice in a policy variable rather than the usual attachment of an ad hoc variable

debt maturity and asymmetric information evidence from default risk changes asymmetric information models suggest that a borrower s choice of debt maturity depends on its private information about its default probabilities that is borrowers with favorable information prefer short term debt while those with unfavorable information prefer long term debt we test this implication by tracing the evolution of debt issuers default risk following debt issuances we find that short term debt issuance leads to a decline inborrowers asset volatility and an increase in their distance to default the opposite is true for long term debt issues the results suggest that borrowers private information about their default risk is an important determinant of their debt maturity choices

economics imperialism and the new development economics as kuhnian paradigm shift abstract this paper addresses the evolving relationship between economics and other social sciences it sets the present intellectual scene as one in which economics imperialism is rampaging across other disciplines the designs of economics upon development studies are examined in terms of the kuhnian notion of paradigm shift thereby the conclusion is drawn of the potential prospect of open debate around the economy and development not least outside economics itself but there is danger of economics imperialism in the form of the post washington consensus foreclosing the analytical agenda at the expense of approaches based on the political economy of capitalism

characterizing social networks and their effects on income diversification in rural kerala india summary income diversification continues to be a key strategy for poor rural households including those that are progressively developing and those operating under increasing distress the ability of a household to diversify has been shown to depend upon its demographic and economic characteristics and its physical and social context this paper considers the effects of intra village social networks on household income diversification in one of the poorest and most ethnically diverse areas of the indian state of kerala using techniques adapted from spatial econometrics we find that social connections within a village magnify the impacts of household characteristics such as education and number of adults by a factor of 3 6 times models with alternative measures of network centrality degree and eigenvector indicate that the number of network connections that a household has is more important than the centrality of those connections finally we use social contact information to calculate assortative mixing based on caste the results suggest social stratification in these villages with higher levels of stratification associated with lower levels of income diversification

the impact of the 1980 depository institutions deregulation and monetary control act on market value and risk evidence from the capital markets the depository institutions deregulation and monetary control act of 1980 brought about major changes in the banking industry this study employs capital market data to examine the act s impact on the relative competitive positions of distinct classes of firms within the industry the evidence supports the hypothesis that federal reserve system banks profited from the regulatory change at the expense of nonmember banks and savings and loans copyright 1988 by ohio state university press

the ecological fallacy revisited aggregate versus individual level findings on economics and elections and sociotropic voting several aggregate level studies have found a relationship between macroeconomic conditions and election outcomes operating in intuitively plausible directions more recent survey based studies however have been unable to detect any comparable relationship operating at the individual voter level this persistent discrepancy is puzzling one recently proposed explanation for it is that voters actually behave in an altruistic or sociotropic fashion responding to economic events only as they affect the general welfare rather than in terms of self interested pocketbook considerations it is argued here that the discrepancies between the macro and micro level studies are a statistical artifact arising from the fact that observable changes in individual welfare actually consist of two unobservable components a government induced and politically relevant component and an exogenous component caused by life cycle and other politically irrelevant factors it is shown that because of this individual level cross sectional estimates of the effects of welfare changes on voting are badly biased and are essentially unrelated to the true values of the behavioral parameters of interest they will generally be considerable underestimates and may even be of the wrong sign an aggregate level time series analysis on the other hand will often yield reasonably good if somewhat attenuated estimates of the underlying individual level effects of interest thus in this case individual behavior is best investigated with aggregate rather than individual level data it is also shown that the evidence for sociotropic voting is artifactual in the sense that the various findings and evidence which ostensibly show sociotropic behavior are all perfectly compatible with the null hypothesis of self interested pocketbook voting

loan commitments and optimal monetary policy this paper analyzes how increased reliance on floating rate loan commitments by firms affects the optimal interest rate conditioned monetary policy the analysis uses a stylized poole type is lm structure that explicitly integrates the interaction between credit and goods markets by endogenizing the choice between traditional loans and floating rate commitments the model can analyze interaction between central bank monetary policy decisions and the choice of loan contract types a key implication is that when this joint decision problem is taken into account the separation between the monetary and goods sectors assumed in the standard is lm paradigm breaks down copyright 1990 by ohio state university press

stagflationary effects of monetary stabilization policies a quantitative analysis of south korea this paper presents a macro model of the korean economy that focuses on short run macro economic adjustment and more in particular on the transmission channels of monetary policy between the financial and the real sector of the economy in addition to the usual link between monetary policy and aggregate demand via investment the link between monetary policy and the supply side of the economy via the financing of working capital with borrowed funds is incorporated this link can potentially reverse the short run impact of tight money on inflation and aggregate the impact on output both export prices and domestic prices show a significant sensitivity to cost of financing working capital this credit supply side link gives a stagflationary bias to restrictive credit policies the empirical relevance of this phenomenon is strongly supported by the simulation results derived with the model structurally section 2 of the paper focuses on the real sector part of the model section 3 discusses the financial sector in section 4 different monetary stabilization packages are simulated using the model presented in sections 2 and 3 and alternative policy measures are discussed the simulation runs show strong short run stagflationary effects of tight money policies

the maturity structure of corporate debt we provide an empirical examination of the determinants of corporate debt maturity our evidence offers strong support for the contracting cost hypothesis firms that have few growth options are large or are regulated have more long term debt in their capital structure we find little evidence that firms use the maturity structure of their debt to signal information to the market the evidence is consistent however with the hypothesis that firms with larger information asymmetries issue more short term debt we find no evidence that taxes affect debt maturity

some evidence on the empirical significance of credit rationing this paper examines the credit rationing debate using detailed contract information on over one million commercial bank loans from 1977 to 1988 while commercial loan rates are sticky consistent with rationing this stickiness varies with loan contract terms in ways that are not predicted by equilibrium credit rationing theory in addition the proportion of new loans issued under commitment does not increase significantly when credit markets are tight despite the fact that borrowers without commitments can be rationed whereas commitment borrowers are contractually insulated from rationing overall the data suggest that equilibrium rationing is not a significant macroeconomic phenomenon

privatization and economic growth an empirical investigation from a sample of developing market economies this paper explores the economic determinants of privatization programmes and the macroeconomic impact of this institutional reform on the growth rate of the gdp a sample of thirty five developing market economies is considered over the 1988 92 period probit and tobit models are used to identify the determinants of successful privatization programmes then regressions are run where probabilities probit and expected values tobit are successively included as additional regressors beside the potential influence of other economic policy variables a significant positive effect is highlighted giving evidence of the importance of divestiture the economic effect is found to be stronger when this institutional reform took place in industry or infrastructure

economic policy uncertainty and the supply of business loans abstract using a vector autoregressive framework of analysis we show that banks contract their supply of business credit in response to an exogenous increase in economic policy uncertainty this contraction takes two main distinct forms on the one hand banks restrict their supply of spot funds which we document using flows of loans and term loan originations on the other hand banks also curtail their provision of liquidity insurance reducing the amount of new credit lines and embedding in them a pricing structure that reduces the probability of borrowers drawing down on the lines at the peak of the responses we find that a one standard deviation increase in epu causes a contraction in the supply of business loans between 3 and 5 on the extensive margin