small firms and the merger mania empirical research has found an average or even superior performance of small firms this seems to be at variance with the secular concentration process and the recurrent merger waves this paper tries to integrate size and merger research higher profitability of small firms is explained by their incentive structure and shorter decision lags but also by lower wages and higher individual risk premia their faster growth in the eighties was in addition fostered by diversification of demand miniaturization of technology and a need for flexibility under uncertainty the merger wave on the other hand does not necessarily prove that large firms are superior managers and shareholders may be seduced by stockmarket optimism a sizeable industry of banks agents and lawyers have their own interests in mergers mergers may be important in declining markets and for the acquisition of technology on average mergers do not improve efficiency profits or internal growth small and large firms serve different purposes performance depends on the market incentives and technology the establishment growth and closure of small firms as well as mergers are attempts to find the optimal organization for utility maximization in a world of severe uncertainty and diverse needs

investment horizon risk and compensation in the banking industry this paper examines the relation between the investment horizon of banks and their ceo compensation and its consequences for risk and performance we find that banks with short term investment intensity pay more cash bonus exhibit higher risk and perform more poorly than banks with longer term investment intensity this evidence is broadly consistent with the view that short term means of compensation encouraged a short term investment focus which in turn led to both higher risk and resulted in poorer performance culminating in the sub prime crisis the inverse risk performance relation suggests pay schemes were incongruent with shareholders interest moreover pay arrangements used in banks prior to the subprime crisis exposed banks to the ex post settling up problem the clawback problem

asymmetric benchmarking in compensation executives are rewarded for good luck but not penalized for bad abstract principal agent theory suggests that a manager should be paid relative to a benchmark that removes the effect of market or sector performance on the firm s own performance recently it has been argued that such indexation is not observed in the data because executives can set pay in their own interests that is they can enjoy pay for luck as well as pay for performance we first show that this argument is incomplete the positive expected return on stock markets reflects compensation for bearing systematic risk if executives pay is tied to market movements they can only expect to receive the market determined return for risk bearing this argument however assumes that executive pay is tied to bad luck as well as to good luck if executives can truly influence the setting of their pay they will seek to have their performance benchmarked only when it is in their interest namely when the benchmark has fallen using industry benchmarks we find significantly less pay for luck when luck is down in which case pay for luck would reduce compensation than when it is up these empirical results are robust to a variety of alternative hypotheses and robustness checks and they suggest that the average executive loses 25 45 less pay from bad luck than is gained from good luck

50th anniversary article option pricing valuation models and applications this paper surveys the literature on option pricing from its origins to the present an extensive review of valuation methods for european and american style claims is provided applications to complex securities and numerical methods are surveyed emphasis is placed on recent trends and developments in methodology and modeling

dynamic market models in industrial organization abstract this paper surveys empirical work done on dynamic models of market performance these fall into one of two categories structural models which model how market structure and performance change in response to entry and reduced form models which describe change regardless of how it is brought about a typical example of each type of model is chosen from the literature and simulations are used to draw out the implications of the estimated coefficients both models depict the competitive process in the us economy as being extremely slow

what has been happening to aggregate concentration in the united states concern about bigness and about aggregate concentration the percentage of some national economic measure controlled by the leading companies in the nation has been a recurring theme in the united states 1 in the late i970s the us economy appeared to be going through another merger wave of large companies political concern over bigness and aggregate concentration was rising and legislation was introduced to limit large conglomerate mergers 2 the data marshalled to support or oppose limits on mergers are usually meager besides the data on mwergers themselves the main evidence usually focuses on concentration but aggregate concentration data for the entire economy are difficult to assemble instead data for individual sectors are provided but there is usually little mention of the limitations biases and misleading nature of much of this evidence for example there has been a wholly unwarranted emphasis on aggregate concentration in manufacturing despite the fact that manufacturing currently accounts for only a quarter of us gnp this paper will try to establish the recent trends in aggregate concentration in the us along the way we will discuss the merits of alternative measures the difficulties of compiling the data into an aggregate private sector measure and the various biases that are likely to plague a number of the measures

labour s shares and profitability crisis in the u s recent experience and post war trends extends work on u s rate of profit by t e weisskopf 1979 firstly the author finds by extending weisskopf s data into the early 1980s that continued downward pressure on profitability i s explained by capacity utilization in contrast to weisskopf s explanation of rising labor share secondly it is found that ri sing labor share in the post war period is largely composed of r ising levels of supplemental fringe benefits and is in the earl y part of the period also explained by rising nonproduction lab or costs production worker wage share falls secularly and this may be explained particularly in the 1960s by rising price mar k ups on direct cost copyright 1987 by oxford university press

an analysis of the relation between the stewardship and valuation roles of earnings in this paper we seek a deeper understanding of how accounting information is used for valuation and incentive contracting purposes we explore linkages between weights on earnings in compensation contracts and in stock price formation a distinction between the valuation and incentive contracting roles of earnings in paul 1992 produces the null hypothesis that valuation earnings coefficients vecs and compensation earnings coefficients cecs are unrelated our empirical analyses of the relations between earnings and both stock prices and executive compensation data at the firm and industry levels over the period 1971 2000 rejects paul s 1992 hypothesis of no relation we also document an increasing weight over time on other public performance information captured by stock returns in the determination of cash compensation specifically we find that the incentive coefficient on returns is significantly higher in the second of two equal sample subperiods relative to the incentive coefficient on earnings

changes in the value relevance of earnings and book values over the past forty years this paper investigates systematic changes in the value relevance of earnings and book values over time we report three primary findings first contrary to claims in the professional literature the combined value relevance of earnings and book values has not declined over the past forty years and in fact appears to have increased slightly second while the incremental value relevance of bottom line earnings has declined it has been replaced by increasing value relevance of book values finally much of the shift in value relevance fiom earnings to book values can be explained by the increasing frequency and magnitude of one time items the increasing frequency of negative earnings and changes in average firm size and intangible intensity across time

empirical evidence on the relation between stock option compensation and risk taking abstract we examine whether executive stock options esos provide managers with incentives to invest in risky projects for a sample of oil and gas producers we examine whether the coefficient of variation of future cash flows from exploration activity our proxy for exploration risk increases with the sensitivity of the value of the ceo s options to stock return volatility eso risk incentives both eso risk incentives and exploration risk are treated as endogenous variables by adopting a simultaneous equations approach we find evidence that eso risk incentives has a positive relation with future exploration risk taking additional tests indicate that eso risk incentives exhibits a negative relation with oil price hedging in a system of equations where eso risk incentives and hedging are allowed to be endogenously determined overall our results are consistent with esos providing managers with incentives to mitigate risk related incentive problems

ceo compensation and bank efficiency an application of conditional nonparametric frontiers the paper investigates in a dynamic context the effect of chief executive officer ceo bonus and salary payments on banks technical efficiency levels our methodological framework incorporates the latest developments on the probabilistic approach of efficiency measurement as introduced by b din et al 2012 we apply time dependent conditional efficiency estimates to analyse a sample of 37 us banks for the period from 2003 to 2012 the empirical evidence reveals a non linear relationship between ceo bonus and salary payments and banks efficiency levels more specifically it is reported that salary and bonus payments affect differently banks technological change and technological catch up levels finally the empirical evidence suggests that higher salary and bonus payments are not always aligned with higher technical efficiency levels

trends in market power and productivity growth rates in us and japanese manufacturing abstract trends were estimated for market power measured by the price marginal cost ratio and the total factor productivity growth rate for us and japanese manufacturing both trends are negative in both countries but japan s are significant and much steeper

causes and effects of vertical intergration this paper sets out to define new measures of industry average forward and backward integration and incorporate them into an empirical stucture conduct performance model results suggest that integration is encouraged where there are relatively few firms in an industry and if sales are increasing forward integration occurs in reaction to large outgoing distribution margins backward integration acts to increase concentration at least in some parts of the manufacturing sector integratin has a complex and interactive effect on profitability serving sometimes to raise profitability and sometimes to lower it

incentives learning and compensation a theoretical and empirical investigation of managerial labor contracts this article analyzes properties and implications of multiperiod managerial labor contracts under two alternative hypotheses incentives in which productivity depends on unobservable effort and learning in which ability is unknown and is revealed over time shared and conflicting implications of these competing models are developed in terms of experienceearnings profiles and the relation between compensation and performance i empirically examine these theoretical results by using a longitudinal sample of 1 488 chief executive officers followed from 1974 1985 the data yield mixed evidence that generally supports the learning hypothesis over the incentive hypothesis

the rise and decline of general laws of capitalism economists have long been drawn to the ambitious quest of discovering the general laws of capitalism david ricardo for example predicted that capital accumulation would terminate in economic stagnation and inequality as a greater and greater share of national income accrued to landowners karl marx followed him by forecasting the inevitable immiseration of the proletariat thomas piketty s 2014 tome capital in the twenty first century emulates marx in his title his style of exposition and his critique of the capitalist system piketty is after general laws that will demystify our modern economy and elucidate the inherent problems of the system and point to solutions but the quest for general laws of capitalism is misguided because it ignores the key forces shaping how an economy functions the endogenous evolution of technology and of the institutions and the political equilibrium that influence not only technology but also how markets function and how the gains from various different economic arrangements are distributed despite his erudition ambition and creativity marx was led astray because of his disregard of these forces the same is true of piketty s sweeping account of inequality in capitalist economies in the next section we review marx s conceptualization of capitalism and some of his general laws we then turn to piketty s approach to capitalism and his general laws we will point to various problems in piketty s interpretation of the economic relationships underpinning inequality but the most important shortcoming is that

concentration changes and large firm small firm efficiency differences evidence from us manufacturing industries 1990 concentration changes and large firm small firm efficiency differences evidence from us manufacturing industries applied economics vol 22 no 1 pp 131 142

industry competitiveness using herfindahl and entropy concentration indices with firm market capitalization data while previous studies of industry concentration have traditionally utilized sales or market share data no studies that we are aware of have been done with market capitalization data if the markets are successful at valuing a firm s current and future prospects it can be argued that concentration indices and other metrics based on the market value of the firms in an industry should be a good proxy for market power within an industry this study presents a study of the market concentration using the herfindahl and entropy concentration indices for 13 industries

factors associated with the year end decline in working capital working capital is an important indicator of firm operational efficiency all else being equal lower levels signal greater efficiency managers are thus likely to be motivated to report lower levels of working capital at times of greater external attention we find that working capital levels decrease in the fourth fiscal quarter significantly more than expected conditional on seasonal changes in economic activity the decrease subsequently reverses in the following first fiscal quarter evidence indicates that firms manage down year end working capital through transactions that increase year end operating cash flow and that firms spread this activity over all working capital accounts finally the temporary decrease in year end working capital is correlated with compensation benchmarks and analysts annual cash flow forecasts the temporary drop is also more pronounced for firms with industry dominance this paper was accepted by mary barth accounting

derivatives regulation implications for central banks abstract we review aspects of derivatives markets that affect central bank operations we focus on how derivatives affect monetary policy and bank supervision and argue that derivatives have no material adverse impact on the conduct of monetary policy our analysis suggests that both derivatives users and dealers face relatively small default risks from derivatives systemic risk the risk of widespread default has been largely exaggerated policy debates have neglected incentives of employees the nature of this agency risk suggests that internal controls are more likely to reduce these problems than derivatives regulation

an analysis of the use of accounting and market measures of performance in executive compensation contracts prior research has provided useful insights into the structure of compensation plans and their incentive effects however one important limitation of these studies is the virtual absence of any cross sectional analyses of the attributes of compensation contracts 2 this absence is related in part to the problems associated with controlling for other factors that affect compensation that is compensation contracts are

the incremental information content of earnings working capital from operation and cash flow prior studies have documented the information content of earnings for share prices but have not provided conclusive evidence on the incremental information content of working capital and cash flows from operations these studies assume linear relations between abnormal returns and accounting information in this paper i extend prior research by allowing for nonlinear relations between returns and each of three performance variables earnings working capital from operations wcfo and cash flows freeman and tse 1992a document a nonlinear relation between abnormal returns and unexpected earnings they argue that as the absolute value of unexpected earnings increases the persistence of earnings declines brooks and buckmaster 1976 and freeman ohlson

diagnosing affine models of options pricing evidence from vix abstract affine jump diffusion models have been the mainstream in options pricing because of their analytical tractability popular affine jump diffusion models however are still unsatisfactory in describing the options data and the problem is often attributed to the diffusion term of the unobserved state variables using prices of variance swaps i e squared vix implied from options prices we provide fresh evidence regarding the misspecification of affine jump diffusion models as variance swap prices are affine functions of the state variables in a broader class of models that do not restrict the diffusion term of the state variables we apply the nonparametric methodology used by ait sahalia 1996b supplemented with bootstrap tests and other parametric tests to the s p 500 index options data from january 1996 to september 2008 we find that while the affine diffusion term of the state variables may contribute to the misspecification as the literature has suggested the affine drift of the state variables jump intensities and risk premiums are also sources of misspecification

jump and volatility risk premiums implied by vix abstract an estimation method is developed for extracting the latent stochastic volatility from vix a volatility index for the sp 2 the jump and volatility risks are priced 3 the popular square root stochastic volatility process is a poor model specification irrespective of allowing for price jumps or not our simulation study shows that statistical inference is reliable and not materially affected by the approximation used in the vix index construction

the relation between earnings based measures in firm debt contracts and ceo pay sensitivity to earnings abstract i investigate how implicit incentives provided by earnings based debt covenants affect the structure of ceo compensation contracts this provides a new and unique view of how the ceo s incentives are shaped by not only his compensation contract but also debt contracts i find when debt contracts contain an earnings based covenant the ceo s pay sensitivity to earnings is muted additionally i find some evidence that pay sensitivity to earnings varies with earnings based covenant slack this study provides evidence consistent with shareholders rebalancing the ceo s earnings incentives in the presence of earnings based covenants thereby tilting incentives away from earnings performance

concentration trends and profitability in us manufacturing a comment 1991 concentration trends and profitability in us manufacturing a comment applied economics vol 23 no 4 pp 717 720

has pricing behaviour in the us automobile industry become more competitive the literature in the us is divided over whether the character of the domestic automobile industry has changed recently becoming less oligopolistic this paper investigates whether domestic industry pricing policies have changed since the oil embargo the paper finds evidence that industry pricing policy has changed from that consistent with a target rate of return pricing to one more consistent with marginal cost pricing

concentration of sales and assets of the top 25 fortune 500 firms 1967 90 the present paper using various indexes of concentration in business assesses the level of concentration of the top 25 united states industrial firms reported annually by fortune an overall conclusion is reached that concentration increased between 1967 and 1990 most noticeably during the 1980s

declining share of small firms in u s output causes and consequences jang ting guo i introduction according to the small business administration s sba calculations as shown in table 1 the contribution of small firms to u s national income was 58 in 1958 which then declined steadily to 51 in 1982 and stabilized around this value until 1992 the latest year for which the figures are available 1 this decline is quite puzzling in light of recent changes in technological factors market competition and government policies that were supposed to benefit small businesses 2 in this article we construct a dynamic general equilibrium model with two production sectors representing large and small firms to examine possible causes and welfare implications of this declining trend of small firms output contribution in the u s economy moreover this study brings into focus the role of government policies such as the justice department s anti trust efforts and the tiering programs whereby many regulations impose lighter requirements on smaller firms in order to maintain their viability 3 recently there have been several developments that can be considered beneficial towards the emergence of small firms shephard 1982 has estimated that since 1958 government deregulatory efforts have raised the level of competition in the u s economy by eliminating entry barriers and lowering transaction costs these factors in turn have contributed to the viability of small firms in the marketplace furthermore the emergence of new computer based technologies in the last two decades has improved the quality and flexibility of small scale production relative to standardized mass production techniques since they reduce the fixed capital or fixed cost requirements see shephard 1982 piore and sable 1984 carlsson 1989b and carlsson audretsch and acs 1994 4 another factor that improves the viability of small firms is their higher innovation rate as documented by acs and audretsch 1990 the shift of consumers taste from standardized mass produced goods towards stylized and personalized prod ucts also promotes small firm growth given their flexible production structure small firms have become important suppliers for these new goods and services see carlsson 1989a in light of these favorable developments one would expect to observe the number of small firms as well as their share in national income to rise in the u s economy however this has not been borne out by the data regarding small firms output share this article examines this issue in a dynamic general equilibrium framework extending romer s 1987 model of specialization we develop an infinite horizon representative agent model with two production sectors that are made up of large and small firms respectively the two sectors differ from each other with respect to the level of fixed set up costs and returns to scale parameters of their production functions each sector has an intermediate good segment in which monopolistically competitive firms operate using fully mobile capital and labor inputs the number of these intermediate firms is determined endogenously from the condition of free entry and exit a final good is produced in each sector from the set of available intermediate goods in a perfec tly competitive environment these two final goods are then aggregated into a single output gdp that can be consumed or invested by the representative household in a symmetric perfect foresight equilibrium these features result in an unequal number of large and small firms which can then be used to analyze the effects of technological changes and government policies the sectoral structure of our model in which gdp is produced by combining outputs of large and small firms is different from a typical two sector model with distinct consumption and investment goods in fact our two sector economy with identical factor intensities behaves exactly like a standard one sector model in which the representative household allocates resources across the two sectors to equate marginal products to factor prices

the use of accounting and security price measures of performance in managerial compensation contracts a discussion abstract it is commonly observed that the compensation paid to senior level executives depends on both accounting and security price measures of performance the articles by kim and suh bushman and indjejikian and sloan which i have been invited to discuss examine the issue of how much weight to place on these two measures in the contract the first two papers analyze the role that earnings can play in removing the noise in stock price in a rational expectations pricing model the sloan paper analytically and empirically examines the role that earnings can play in removing macroeconomic factors from stock price

an empirical investigation of the relative performance evaluation hypothesis the principal agent framework has become a widely used paradigm in accounting and economics for analyzing issues in performance evaluation management control and the design of incentive systems while recent work in experimental economics has begun to examine empirically some of the underlying assumptions and implications of agency theory see baiman and lewis 1989 and kirby forthcoming few precise hypotheses have been tested using real world or naturally occurring data one exception has been the empirical investigation of the relative performance evaluation rpe hypothesis agency theory suggests that there are benefits associated with evaluating agents on the basis of their relative performances when the agents performances are affected by a common shock term e g see diamond and verrecchia 1982 and holmstrom 1979 1982 specifically a relative performance based contract can remove the common shock term from an agent s performance which enables a better evaluation of the agent s actions

industrial concentration and competition in malaysian manufacturing industrial concentration is the most widely studied area among various elements of market structure in the industrial organization literature this paper is a first attempt to analyse the determinants of changes in industry concentration over time in the case of malaysia using a partial adjustment model a cross sectional analysis is carried out against a sample of manufacturing industries between 1986 and 1996 domestic factors in influencing competition e g capital intensity advertising intensity and market size are found to be significant in most cases to explain the level of concentration considering variable rate of adjustment of concentration an increase in labour productivity of large firms and high entry rates are found to be significant for faster adjustment towards equilibrium level compared with other developed countries the annual rate of structural adjustment is found to be slow in the case of malaysian manufacturing

multimarket contact among diversified oligopolists multimarket contact appears to be necessary for effective oligopolistic consensus in a concentrated industry when the industry s firms are diversified evidently without multimarket contact coordination breaks down because the diversified sellers have different costs and demands and hence would not independently choose the same price and because price cuts are less easily detected and matched the evidence suggests that bain s seminal observation of the nexus among profits concentration and barriers resulted because of the multimarket contact of the firms in his sample

the volatility and price sensitivities of managerial stock option portfolios and corporate hedging we use estimates of the black scholes sensitivity of managers stock option portfolios to stock return volatility and the sensitivity of managers stock and stock option portfolios to stock price to test the relationship between managers risk preferences and hedging activities we find that as the sensitivity of managers stock and stock option portfolios to stock price increases firms tend to hedge more however as the sensitivity of managers stock option portfolios to stock return volatility increases firms tend to hedge less one of the agency costs associated with the corporate form of ownership comes from the risk aversion of the firm s managers the typical corporate manager has a significant portion of his or her wealth invested in the corporation both through portfolio holdings and the value of firm specific human capital as a result managers have an incentive to reduce firm risk more than may be desirable from the perspective of an unaffiliated diversified shareholder one way to mitigate managerial risk aversion is to provide the manager with contracts that have a payoff structure that is a convex function of the firm s stock price smith and stulz 1985 guay 1999 finds that stock options are an important way in which convexity is added to managers portfolios however as recognized by carpenter 2000 and lambert larcker and verrecchia 1991 stock options create two opposing effects on managerial incentives the first effect is sensitivity to stock return volatility due to the convex payoff structure of options the value of a manager s stock option portfolio increases with the volatility of the firm s stock returns this sensitivity to stock return volatility should ceteris paribus give the manager an incentive to take more risk the second effect is sensitivity to stock price this effect comes from the direct link between the payoff of an option and

lessons from the 1930s great depression this paper provides a survey of the great depression comprising both a narrative account and a detailed review of the empirical evidence focusing especially on the experience of the united states we examine the reasons for and flawed resolution of the american banking crisis as well as the conduct of fiscal and monetary policy we also consider the pivotal role of the gold standard in the international transmission of the slump and leaving gold as a route to recovery policy lessons for today from the great depression are discussed as are some implications for macroeconomics

causes of increased competition in the u s economy 1939 1980 examines the sources of increased competition in the united states u s between 1939 to 1980 in this paper authors consider the review of related literature trends and patterns of competitive structure in the u s economy influence of antirust actions on competition

nonparametric estimation of american options exercise boundaries and call prices abstract unlike european type derivative securities there are no simple analytic valuation formulas for finite lived american options even when the underlying asset price has constant volatility the early exercise feature considerably complicates the valuation of american contracts the strategy taken in this paper is to rely on nonparametric statistical methods using market data to estimate the call prices and the exercise boundaries a comparison is made with parametric constant volatility model based prices and exercise boundaries the paper focuses on assessing the adequacy of conventional formulas by comparing them to nonparametric estimates we use daily market option prices and exercise data on the s p100 contract the most actively traded american option contract we find large discrepancies between the parametric and nonparametric call prices and exercise boundaries we also find remarkable similarities of the nonparametric estimates before and after the crash of october 1987

domestic concentration foreign trade and economic performance abstract in a competitive fringe model the impact of concentration on price cost margins can be shown to be ambiguous therefore looking at the relationship between rates of return and concentration ratios is not sufficient for perceiving collusive elements in this paper a model is set up that permits discerning collusion more clearly additional evidence concerning collusion can be gained by analyzing the influence of exports and imports on price cost margins applying this approach to west germany yields the result that the collusiveness prevailing in domestic markets has not visibly decreased in spite of a substantial increase in foreign trade

the role of small firms in the industrial development and transformation of czechoslovakia this article presents an analysis of the role of small firms in the formation and reform of the czechoslovak manufacturing sector it attempts to give an understanding of the industrial structure formed under the past regime within the framework of the mass production paradigm as manufacturing productivity gradually declined over the past 25 years and small firms have been virtually eliminated systemic preference has been given to the development of large monopolies consequently a monolithic coalition structure of enterprise managers state bureaucrats and political nomenklatura has arisen and continues to present itself as a serious hindrance to economic transformation while small firms have the potential to play a critical role in the democratic marketization of czechoslovakia current government preoccupation with the rapid privatization of the state sector risks damaging the development of a balanced distribution of firm size and in turn the revitalization of the society

the use of loan sales and standby letters of credit by commercial banks abstract this paper examines the incentives banks have to engage in off balance sheet activities such as commercial loan sales and the issuance of standby letters of credit slcs i show that loan sales and loans backed by slcs have payoff characteristics similar to secured debt like secured debt off balance sheet activities permit banks to sell a portion of the cash flows associated with new investment oppurtunities this ability permits banks to invest in loans with positive net present values that they would pass up if restricted to deposit financing an examination of the risk premium on large certificates of deposit provides evidence consistent with the model

the other side of the trade off the impact of risk on executive compensation the principal agent model of executive compensation is of central importance to the modern theory of the firm and corporate governance yet the exiting empirical evidence supporting it is quite wea

nonparametric estimation of state price densities implicit in interest rate cap prices based on a multivariate extension of the constrained locally polynomial estimator of ait sahalia and duarte 2003 we provide one of the first nonparametric estimates of probability densities of libor rates under forward martingale measures and state price densities spds implicit in interest rate cap prices the forward densities and spds depend significantly on the slope and volatility of libor rates and mortgage markets activities have strong impacts on the shape of the forward densities the spds exhibit a pronounced u shape as a function of future libor rates suggesting that the state prices are high at both extremely low and high interest rates which tend to be associated with recessions and periods of high inflation respectively our results provide nonparametric evidence of unspanned stochastic volatility and suggest that the unspanned factors could be partly driven by activities in the mortgage markets the author 2009 published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies all rights reserved for permissions please e mail journals permissions oxfordjournals org oxford university press

a closed form garch option valuation model this paper develops a closed form option valuation formula for a spot asset whose variance follows a garch p q process that can be correlated with the returns of the spot asset it provides the first readily computed option formula for a random volatility model that can be estimated and implemented solely on the basis of observables the single lag version of this model contains heston s 1993 stochastic volatility model as a continuous time limit empirical analysis on s p500 index options shows that the out of sample valuation errors from the single lag version of the garch model are substantially lower than the ad hoc black scholes model of dumas fleming and whaley 1998 that uses a separate implied volatility for each option to fit to the smirk smile in implied volatilities the garch model remains superior even though the parameters of the garch model are held constant and volatility is filtered from the history of asset prices while the ad hoc black scholes model is updated every period the improvement is largely due to the ability of the garch model to simultaneously capture the correlation of volatility with spot returns and the path dependence in volatility article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

industry concentration and competition new zealand experience abstract this paper analyses the changes in industry concentration and their determinants using a sample of 109 new zealand manufacturing industries the analysis shows that new zealand manufacturing industries are more concentrated than those of most other countries however there has been a clearly declining trend in industry concentration over time indicating that the efforts taken in the past to enhance domestic competition have produced some favourable results the analysis supports the hypothesis that economies of scale are a major source of concentration the other determinants of industry concentration are entry barriers the size of industry import competition and foreign ownership of industry

the tenuous trade off between risk and incentives empirical work testing for a negative trade off between risk and incentives has not had much success the data suggest a positive relationship between measures of uncertainty and incentives rather than the posited negative trade off i argue that the existing literature fails to account for an important effect of uncertainty on incentives through the allocation of responsibility to employees when workers operate in certain settings firms are content to assign tasks to workers and monitor their inputs by contrast when the situation is more uncertain they delegate responsibility to workers but to constrain their discretion base compensation on observed output

the critical choice between the concentration ratio and the h index in assessing industry performance the paper shows that in addition to the theoretical relevance of choosing between the hirschman herfindahl index and the concentration ratio both measures may provide empirically very different information to assess industry performance it is shown that the correspondence between the two measures can be represented by a horn shaped figure the implications of this horn shaped relationship are investigated in the context of specifying empirical profitability concentration models among different specification effects tested it is shown that the neglect of the hornrelationship may bias the results towards the identification of a critical concentration ratio

on the number of state variables in options pricing in this paper we investigate the methodological issue of determining the number of state variables required for options pricing after showing the inadequacy of the principal component analysis approach which is commonly used in the literature we adopt a nonparametric regression technique with nonlinear principal components extracted from the implied volatilities of various moneyness and maturities as proxies for the transformed state variables the methodology is applied to the prices of s p 500 index options from the period 1996 2005 we find that in addition to the index value itself two state variables approximated by the first two nonlinear principal components are adequate for pricing the index options and fitting the data in both time series and cross sections

the evolution of manufacturing technology and its impact on industrial structure an international study this paper shows that plant and firm size in manufacturing and especially in engineering industry in several western industrial countries has declined since the early 1970s two hypotheses explaining the decline are advanced one is de glomeration or specialization the divestiture of non core businesses in order to free up scarce resources particularly management time to defend and nurture core business activities the second hypothesis is that the emergence of new computer based technology has improved the quality and productivity of small and medium scale production relative to standardized mass production techniques which dominated previously

concentration trends and profitability in us manufacturing a reply and some new evidence 1991 concentration trends and profitability in us manufacturing a reply and some new evidence applied economics vol 23 no 4 pp 721 722

asymmetric sensitivity of ceo cash compensation to stock returns abstract we document that ceo cash compensation is twice as sensitive to negative stock returns as it is to positive stock returns since stock returns include both unrealized gains and unrealized losses we expect cash compensation to be less sensitive to stock returns when returns contain unrealized gains positive returns than when returns contain unrealized losses negative returns this is consistent with boards of directors exercising discretion to reduce costly ex post settling up in cash compensation paid to ceos

trends in aggregate concentration in the united states i assemble two rarely used data sets to measure aggregate concentration in the u s in the 1980s and 1990s despite the merger waves of those decades aggregate concentration declined in the 1980s and the early 1990s but rose modestly in the late 1990s the levels at the end of the decade were at or below the levels of the late 1980s or early 1990s the average size of firm and the relative importance of larger size classes of firms increased however gini coefficients for employment and payroll shares of companies showed moderate but steady increases from 1988 through 1999

contestability a revisionist view many claims have been made about the significance of the contribution of contestability theory to industrial organizat ion this paper concludes that contestability theory leaves unanswere d questions about the identity of entrants and the source of their re sources a modification to the theory is proposed rather than as a h indrance to potential entry sunk costs are viewed as being of key si gnificance for the disciplining of oligopolists through potential ent ry with the proposed modification the analysis of the costs of mult iproduct firms may be more easily integrated with recent developments in industrial organization copyright 1988 by the london school of economics and political science

estimating the value of employee stock option portfolios and their sensitivities to price and volatility the costs associated with compiling data on employee stock option portfolios is a substantial obstacle in investigating the impact of stock options on managerial incentives accounting choice financing decisions and the valuation of equity we present an accurate method of estimating option portfolio value and the sensitivities of option portfolio value to stock price and stock return volatility that is easily implemented using data from only the current year s proxy statement or annual report this method can be applied to either executive stock option portfolios or to firm wide option plans in broad samples of actual and simulated ceo option portfolios we show that these proxies capture more than 99 of the variation in option portfolio value and sensitivities sensitivity analysis indicates that the degree of bias in these proxies varies with option portfolio characteristics and is most severe in samples of ceos with a large proportion of out of the money options however the proxies explanatory power remains above 95 in all subsamples

returns to scale and market concentration among the largest survivors of deregulation in the us trucking industry application of the survivor technique to the 100 largest less than truckload carriers of general commodity freight in the us interstate trucking industry produces estimates of the ranges of increasing constant and decreasing returns to scale from 1981 to 1993 the first thirteen years of deregulation nearly one quarter of total group ton miles hauled is found to have moved into the more efficient size range of constant returns to scale a gain in long run technical efficiency is thereby attributed to the motor carrier act of 1980 moreover the survivorship data allow estimates of intragroup market concentration for each of the same thirteen post deregulation years concentration purely within this group appears to have remained fairly moderate and stable since 1981 an unsurprising finding given the modest minimum efficient size estimated at about 2 million ton miles hauled annually the moderate and stable concentration among the 100 largest is not necessarily incompatible with other research which

accounting earnings and top executive compensation abstract this paper investigates the role of accounting earnings in top executive compensation contracts it provides evidence in support of the hypothesis that earnings based incentives help shield executives from market wide factors in stock prices the paper demonstrates that earnings reflect firm specific changes in value but are less sensitive to market wide movements in equity values as a result the inclusion of earnings based performance measures in executive compensation contracts helps shield executives from fluctuations in firm value that are beyond their control the hypothesis is shown to explain cross sectional variation in the use of earnings based incentives

the relation between earnings and cash flows abstract a model of earnings cash flows and accruals is developed assuming a random walk sales process variable and fixed costs and that the only accruals are accounts receivable and payable and inventory the model implies earnings better predict future operating cash flows than current operating cash flows and the difference varies with the operating cash cycle also the model is used to predict serial and cross correlations of each firm s series the implications and predictions are tested on a 1337 firm sample over 1963 1992 both earnings and cash flow forecast implications and correlation predictions are generally consistent with the data

does contractual wage rigidity play a role in determining real activity interest in nominal wage ridigity as a source of macroeconomic fluctuations has waxed and waned over the past half century the most recent wave of interest was triggered by the rational expectations revolution of the 1970s which inspired an improved sticky wage paradigm the paradigm posits the existence of short term contractual arrangements that in their simplest form fix wage schedules in nominal terms for a predetermined period the life of the contract and leave employment at the discretion of the firm the most influential examples of the paradigm incorporate rational expectations and satisfy the natural rate hypothesis 9 14 thus meeting the new minimum standards for demand driven theories of the business cycle nominal wage contracting models have been vigorously criticized for both a lack of theoretical rigor and an absence of empirical support despite their critics however the models have remained a popular analytical tool and after almost a decade of inattention economists are showing a renewed interest in empirical tests of nominal contracting models the studies produced to date are small in number and offer conflicting conclusions they are perhaps as important for the objections they provoke as for the answers they provide while the work reported in this paper

the paradox of liquidity the more liquid a firm s assets the greater their value in a short notice liquidation it is generally thought that a firm should find it easier to raise external finance against more liquid assets this paper focuses on the dark side of liquidity greater asset liquidity reduces the firm s ability to commit to a specific course of action as a result greater asset liquidity can in some circumstances reduce the firm s capacity to raise external finance firms with excessively liquid assets are in the best position to finance illiquid projects this leads us to a theory of financial intermediation and disintermediation based on the liquidity of assets

international trade secondary output and concentration in canadian manufacturing industries 1979 census concentration measures do not account for either secondary output or imports taking these into account for canada in 1979 shows that measured concentration substantially overstates the degree to which a small number of firms controls a large proportion of industry output correcting for imports has a much greater effect than correcting for secondary output these results are much more apparent in national than regional industries on the other hand taking into account exports has virtually no effect on estimates of concentration these findings strengthen as well as throw additional light on earlier work for the uk and canada which made ad hoc corrections to census concentration measures

corporate performance and managerial remuneration an empirical analysis abstract economic theories of efficient compensation predict a positive relationship between executive pay and corporate performance and yet efforts to document this relationship have been largely unsuccessful in this paper we argue that previous cross sectional studies have omitted important variables which seriously bias their results using data that focus on individual executives over time we find that executive compensation is strongly positively related to corporate performance as measured by shareholder return and growth in firm sales the results are robust to the stock market performance measure utilized

incentive contracting and value relevance of earnings and cash flows accounting performance measures such as earnings and cash flows are useful for both valuation and performance evaluation purposes however little evidence exists on whether there is any association between these two roles in this study we provide large sample empirical evidence that the value relevance of earnings explains a significant amount of the cross sectional variation in the pay sensitivity of earnings and the incremental value relevance of cash flows explains variation in the marginal pay sensitivity of cash flows we document that while both value relevance and compensation weight on earnings decline from the subperiod of 1993 to 1997 to the subperiod of 1998 to 2003 both value relevance and compensation weight on cash flows increase from the earlier subperiod to the later subperiod overall our results provide additional evidence that value relevance of a performance measure plays a significant role in its use for performance evaluation

ceo compensation and bank risk is compensation in banking structured to promote risk taking abstract this paper examines whether executive compensation in banking is structured to promote risk taking we find that on average bank ceos receive less cash compensation are less likely to participate in a stock option plan hold fewer stock options and receive a smaller percentage of their total compensation in the form of options and stock than do ceos in other industries cross sectional differences in the structure of compensation contracts within banking are also examined we find a positive and significant relation between the importance of equity based incentives and the value of the bank s charter this result is inconsistent with the hypothesis that compensation policies promote risk taking in banking

downward occupational mobility and part time women workers 1988 downward occupational mobility and part time women workers applied economics vol 20 no 4 pp 485 495

concentration trends and profitability in us manufacturing a further and some new and improved evidence the purpose of this note is to clear up several misconceptions presented by saghafi and attaran 1991 s a in their reply to my comment o neill 1991a the most egregious misconception being that s a failed to recognize the main point of my comment the entropy index values reported by attaran and saghafi 1988 a s are erroneous becouse they are based on incorrectly computed firm market share values the problem being that a s compute share values using the sales or assets or equity of the fortune 500 firms in the denominator of their share figures rather than using the total manufacturing sector saless or assets or equity this obviously overstates each firm s market share as stated in o neill 1991a the effect this has on the entropy index cannot be determined aa priori it depends on the data sample in the entirety of their rely not once do s a refute this claim a second perhaps more important point is that when the entropy index is computed using corrected market share values the t

concentration trends and profitability in the us manufacturing sector 1970 84 it has been suggested that the us economy is becoming more concentrated and less competitive concentration is also claimed to affect the return and risk of companies in this paper using the entropy technique the concentration index for the manufacturing sector of the us economy has been computed and the concentration trend has been analysed furthermore the impact of concentration on return and risk of manufacturing companies is investigated

the role of small firms in east germany this paper examines the role which small firms in east germany have played under the system of combines and the important contribution they can make in the current reform process the evolution of a striking trend towards the centralization of economic power in the gdr during the last three decades is documented not only has the share of economic activity accounted for by the combines greatly increased but the number of establishments and particularly small establishments has drastically decreased it is concluded that the establishment of a vital entrepreneurial sector is essential if east germany is to succeed in its process of economic reform and the transition to the market economy

contesting the magic of the market place black employment and business concentration in the urban context the spatial decentralisation of urban firms has been the primary focus of urbanists seeking to understand how black employment is impacted by the changing nature of business in the us very little attention has been given to the impact of market concentration on black employment in the urban environment using the most recent data available from the equal employment opportunity commission the paper finds that black male and female employment is positively associated with greater market concentration not greater market competition as predicted by some neo classical economists there is little support for the contention that economic forces at work in competitive markets tend to minimise discrimination either in the urban environment or in the nation as a whole the central city continues to be an important factor in black employment because central city firms are in industries with higher market concentration which tend to employ more black workers however increased market concentration is a crucial

deposit insurance and wealth effects the value of being too big to fail this paper investigates the effect on bank equity values of the comptroller of the currency s announcement that some banks were too big to fail and that for those banks total deposit insurance would be provided using an event study methodology we find positive wealth effects accruing to tbtf banks with corresponding negative effects accruing to non included banks we demonstrate that the magnitude of these effects differed with bank solvency and size we also show that the policy to which the market reacted was that suggested by the wall street journal and not that actually intended by the comptroller the role of deposit insurance has become a topic of increasing debate advocates argue that by removing the incentive to run deposit insurance protects individual financial institutions from instability in the intermediation process thereby providing stability to the financial system as a whole 1 the recent rise in bank failures and the concomitant crises in the s l industry however demonstrate that this stability is not guaranteed moreover critics note that deposit insurance may introduce incentive problems and wealth effects into the financial system both of which can impede the effective functioning of any deposit insurance system these problems have prompted concern about the structure of the current deposit insurance system and have led to numerous proposals regarding its restructuring 2 this paper investigates one aspect of this debate by analyzing the effect on bank equity values of the policy decision to insure completely some banks but not others specifically in september 1984 the comptroller of the currency testified before congress that some banks were simply too big to fail tbtf and that for those banks total deposit insurance would be provided while not explicitly naming the banks the comptroller admitted that this policy would apply to the eleven largest banks using an event study methodology we analyze