the effect of information streams on capital budgeting decisions in this paper a new decision rule for capital budgeting is considered a firm has the opportunity to invest in a project of uncertain profitability over time the firm receives additional information in the form of signals indicating the profitability of the project the belief that the firm needs to have in a profitable project for investment to be optimal is calculated and analyzed it is shown that the probability of investing in a project with low profitability is larger when the firm uses a conventional rule like the net present value rule as a counterintuitive result it is obtained that it can be optimal to undertake the investment at a later point in time in case the expected number of signals per time unit is higher also an error measure is discussed that indicates the accuracy of capital budgeting rules in this stochastic environment

historical wealth accounts for britain progress and puzzles in measuring the sustainability of economic growth we thank the leverhulme trust for funding this research under the project history and the future

global warming economics in the long run a conceptual framework economic models of climate change typically analyze its short run effects for example up to the year 2100 or for a doubling of atmospheric co2 this is a potentially serious shortcoming since under a business as usual scenario atmospheric co2 concentrations could more than quadruple we introduce a framework that endogenously accounts for long run climate change and examine the implications of alternative mitigation strategies one in which the rates of annual emissions are reduced and one that places absolute limits on the total amount of carbon released we discuss alternative valuation frameworks drawing on the debate surrounding the stern review

on r d timing under uncertainty abstract in this paper we analyze the problem of endogenous r d timing when technological breakthrough and innovation are random events in a dynamic framework which involves the substitution of an exhaustible resource oil for instance by an alternative technology the backstop that provides an everlasting source of energy under fairly general assumptions we characterize the pattern of exploitation of both energy sources and study the effect of uncertain technological breakthrough on the r d timing decision on resource prices and on the pattern of resource use in comparison to the certainty case it is shown that uncertainty consideration might delay the undertaking of r d and might lead to a more rapid resource depletion pattern for a considerable range of r d capital costs while the opposite result the conventional wisdom holds only for some other range

the impact of market structure and learning on the tradeoff between r d competition and cooperation this paper compares r d competition and cooperation when firms can devote resources to a safe investment or a risky r d investment when the discovery of a new product creates positive externalities on non discovering firms equilibrium investment flow ex ante investment and welfare under r d competition are less than or equal to what they are under research cooperation with negative externalities r d cooperation results in the same or lower ex ante investment than under r d competition and social welfare may also be less our results have relevance for empirical studies of the impact of r d cooperation on r d outcomes

genetically modified crops corporate pricing strategies and farmers adoption the case of bt cotton in argentina this article analyzes adoption and impacts of bt cotton in argentina against the background of monopoly pricing based on survey data it is shown that the technology significantly reduces insecticide applications and increases yields however these advantages are curbed by the high price charged for genetically modified seeds using the contingent valuation method it is shown that farmers average willingness to pay is less than half the actual technology price a lower price would not only increase benefits for growers but could also multiply company profits thus resulting in a pareto improvement implications of the sub optimal pricing strategy are discussed recently genetically modified gm crops have brought about important changes in the global market for agricultural technologies especially seeds prospects of high economic returns and tightened intellectual property rights iprs have provided new incentives for the private sector to invest in crop improvement and extend its business to nontraditional markets the increasingly proprietary nature of seed technologies has implications for farmers adoption and benefit distribution private innovators endowed with a patent on a technology will attempt to capture the gains from their innovation through monopoly pricing moschini and lapan recent studies have looked into the partitioning of welfare created by gm crops among agricultural producers consumers and innovating input firms e g moschini lapan and sobolevsky falckzepeda traxler and nelson in these studies however the market price of the technology is

optimal growth resource amenities and the preservation of natural environments this paper examines the conditions for which it is optimal to permanently preserve natural environments in which a productive natural resource is found the conditions are more restrictive than those previously indicated in the literature on the economics of natural environments increasing consumption and declining commodity prices are not sufficient to warrant permanent preservation the initial capital stock can be an important determinant of the optimal level of preservation in addition resource amenity values will increase the initial resource price and decrease the rate of growth of the resource price the natural world provides a variety of services to the human community natural resources are essential inputs in the production of goods and services in addition the natural world generates a variety of amenity services including the scientific recreational and aesthetic value of preserved natural environments krutilla 1967 krutilla and fisher 1975a this paper examines the impact of resource amenity values on the optimal growth of an economy which depends upon natural resource inputs for the production of goods and services in particular the paper examines the conditions under which it is optimal to permanently preserve some natural environments in which the productive resource is found the conditions which warrant permanent preservation are more restrictive than previously indicated by the literature on the economics of natural environments increasing consumption and declining commodity prices are not sufficient to warrant permanent preservation in addition the initial capital endowment can be an important determinant of the optimal level of preservation

multinationals response to repatriation restrictions abstract we present a model that explains how repatriation restrictions can increase or decrease a multinational s capital investment in and technology transfer to its subsidiary past remittance restrictions influence the multinational s expectation of current and future repatriation policies which affect its operations we show that the model can capture the flows of united states multinational s capital and technology in response to various forms of brazilian repatriation restrictions seen in the eighties by comparing steady state level effects of the restrictions we show countries should expect an inflow of foreign direct investment with the abolishment of restrictions not an outflow as some countries fear

liabilities of regional foreignness and the use of firm level versus country level data a response to dunning et al 2007 we are pleased that dunning et al have provided macro country level data demonstrating the increased internationalization of many nations over the past decade we also appreciate their findings lending support to our perspective on the regional nature of world business our work was based solely on micro firm level data both country level data and firm level data have methodological problems which we attempt to reconcile in this commentary we also address the broader conceptual issues of how to interpret country level vs firm level data

the private sector in agricultural research systems will it fill the gap abstract this article examines whether the private sector can fill the gap of declining public research in developing countries economic theory suggests private for profit research will focus on areas where returns to research are appropriable and reasonable profits are generated actual private for profit research activities concentrate on countries and industries with large markets appropriable returns strong science infrastructure and favorable government policies governments and donors can promote private research by easing constraints to private entry and operations but if governments stop funding research on public goods and technologies with limited market potential the private sector is unlikely to fill the gap completely

accessing modern science policy and institutional options for agricultural biotechnology in developing countries the paper highlights the complexity of the challenge in developing forms of collaboration between a variety of actors in the biotechnology area in developing countries national research systems with diverse capacities in biotechnology international research centers local private research and development companies and advanced research institutes in both industrialized and developing countries case studies are provided from strong programs such as india china and brazil which will be tool developers as well as users programs that are developing an adaptive capacity in biotech to use tools and methods in a large number of countries whose research systems have virtually no capacity in molecular biology each type program presents challenges and opportunities for accessing new technologies based on facilitation of private investments public private partnerships and local capacity to design proprietary technologies working with the consultative group on international agricultural research centers as intermediaries and partners and with regional consortia policy and institutional issues for accessing modern science are then discussed and many of the challenges involve developing strategies in intellectual property management while pubic research organizations will need to develop innovative means of segmenting markets to complement private sector interests

carving up the commons emergence of a new international regime for germplasm development and transfer no nation has ever fabricated or maintained a prosperous food system based on genetic resources of purely indigenous origin remarkably many countries now seem ready and almost eager to try such an approach we identify four separate components of an emerging regime that are interacting in ways that should worry everyone concerned with the development and transfer of plant genetic materials into the south new provisions on intellectual property increased concentration of new enabling technologies into a few large multinational companies heightened anxieties over transgenic crops and new problems arising from international agreements we argue that the solutions now being discussed in global forums are either infeasible incomplete or are likely to have seriously negative effects we call instead for creative new thinking on building human capacity in developing countries on the legal status of plant genetic resources and on publicprivate partnerships especially those in service of the poor 2002 published by elsevier science ltd

multinationality and corporate ethics codes of conduct in the sporting goods industry the international operations of firms have substantial impact on the formulation and implementation of business ethical principles such as codes of conduct the international sporting goods industry has been a pioneer in setting up codes and thus provides much relevant experience different sourcing strategies degrees of multinationality and national backgrounds affect the contents of codes moreover international non governmental organizations prove equally effective in triggering sophisticated codes

contests for experimentation we study contests for innovation with learning about the innovation s feasibility and opponents outcomes we characterize contests that maximize innovation when the designer chooses a prize sharing scheme and a disclosure policy a public winner takes all contest dominates public contests where any success is immediately disclosed with any other prize sharing scheme as well as winner takes all contests with any other disclosure policy yet jointly modifying prize sharing and disclosure can increase innovation in a broad class of mechanisms it is optimal to share the prize with disclosure following a certain number of successes under simple conditions a hidden equal sharing contest is optimal

can the public sector meet the challenge of private research commentary on falcon and fowler and pingali and traxler abstract the growth of private sector participation in agricultural research has serious implications for pro poor technology development but there are other factors that must be considered new plant varieties are not the only things standing between resource poor farmers and secure livelihoods and institutional strengthening is also necessary in addition the current state of public agricultural research is cause for concern it is not clear how many effective public private partnerships can be formed the public sector needs a much clearer definition of its targets and priorities and funding strategies for national and international agricultural research must be overhauled

a general model of r d competition and policy this article constructs a model of r d with heterogeneous firms each firm s probability of success is a function of its sunk and recurrent r d expenditures the social gains from an innovation are not fully captured by the successful firm the comparison of the social optimum and the market equilibrium involves balancing spillover and crowding effects pigovian corrective policies as well as strategic policies for a subset of colluding firms are discussed

learning while voting determinants of collective experimentation this paper combines dynamic social choice and strategic experimentation to study the following question how does a society a committee or more generally a group of individuals with potentially heterogeneous preferences experiment with new opportunities each voter recognizes that during experimentation other voters also learn about their preferences as a result pivotal voters today are biased against experimentation because it reduces their likelihood of remaining pivotal this phenomenon reduces equilibrium experimentation below the socially efficient level and may even result in a negative option value of experimentation however one can restore efficiency by designing a voting rule that depends deterministically on time another main result is that even when payoffs of a reform are independently distributed across the population good news about any individual s payoff increases other individuals incentives to experiment with that reform due to a positive voting externality

savings growth and the path of utility we derive an expression relating the change in instantaneous utility to the growth of net genuine saving in an economy with multiple stocks and externalities that maxi mizes welfare in the utilitarian sense this result is then shown to hold for decentralized competitive efficient economies as well to yield an extension of the hartwick rule instan taneous utility is non declining along a development path if genuine saving is decreasing by way of example the rule is applied as a constant genuine saving rate rule in a simple dasgupta heal solow stiglitzeconomy the rule yields a path with unbounded consump tion and higher wealth than on the standard hartwick constant consumption path jel classification q01 q56 o13

global agriculture r d and the changing aid architecture agriculture research knowledge and technology that transcends national borders has played a crucial role in enhancing developing country productivity growth over the past 50 years the demand for international agriculture research iar continues to be strong today even while becoming increasingly differentiated by the stage of development that a particular country or region is in the supply of iar to developing country research programs is however becoming increasingly constrained by variable donor support a push toward downstream product adaptation and dissemination activities relative to innovation and product development and a lack of clear links between international public good research and national agriculture development priorities country level donor coordination and alignment mechanisms specified in the paris declaration on aid effectiveness do not explicitly account for the role of iar in the development process while the movement toward national ownership of its development agenda and donor alignment around it is unquestionably good an unintended consequence could be a break in the r d pipeline that supplies public good research and technologies for enhancing developing country agriculture productivity growth the article presents options for rebuilding synergies between international public good research and national agriculture development priorities

pro poor agricultural biotechnology can the international research system deliver the goods abstract while global investment in agricultural research by the private sector is increasing with growth in developing country markets and the emergence of new technologies complementary public sector investment is stagnating or declining in many developing countries this review argues that the changing roles of the public and private sectors in generating new scientific knowledge may adversely affect the diffusion of explicitly pro poor technologies technologies that are simultaneously yield enhancing and poverty reducing comparing historical evidence from the green revolution with recent evidence from the emerging era of agricultural biotechnology this review argues that a more pluralistic international system for agricultural research will be more responsive to poverty only if the strategic leadership role of the public sector is strengthened certain research functions are reallocated to the private sector and new policy and organizational mechanisms are used to stimulate pro poor research in and for developing country agriculture

the importance of international business to the strategic agenda of u s ceos the growth of international business ib and concerns about the relevance of ib research indicate the need for managerial input on the topic a survey of 108 u s ceos reveals that ib issues are an important part of their strategic agenda four types of ib issues are identified which reveal that american ceos appear to be taking a proactive stance regarding the international arena the ceos were also found to hold diverse perceptions of ib issues the implications of these findings are discussed

ex ante analysis of the benefits of transgenic drought tolerance research on cereal crops in low income countries this article develops a framework to examine the ex ante benefits of transgenic research on drought in eight low income countries including the benefits to producers and consumers from farm income stabilization and the potential magnitude of private sector profits from intellectual property rights iprs the framework employs country specific agroecological drought risk zones and considers both yield increases and yield variance reductions when estimating producer and consumer benefits from research benefits from yield variance reductions are shown to be an important component of aggregate drought research benefits representing 40 of total benefits across the eight countries further estimated annual benefits of us 178 million to the private sector suggest that significant incentives exist for participation in transgenic drought tolerance research

the adoption of genetically modified papaya in hawaii and its implications for developing countries 1 abstract as agricultural biotechnology becomes increasingly commercialised numerous constraints limit adoption by developing country producers these include technology access impacts on farmers yields and profits privatisation of research and intellectual property biosafety regulatory frameworks and trade related market restrictions this essay analyses development of the genetically modified papaya and its commercialisation in hawaii as a response to a virulent plant disease papaya ringspot virus results of a survey of hawaiian papaya growers suggest that the unprecedentedly rapid adoption of gm papaya is due to this technology s having addressed many of these key constraints facing growers the implications for developing country adoption of gm varieties are explored

patents imitation and licensing in an asymmetric dynamic r d race abstract rd some may have an advantage in early stages of the r d process while others may have advantages in other stages of the process this paper uses a two firm asymmetric ability multistage r d race model to analyze the effect of patents imitations and licensing arrangements on the speed of innovation firm value and consumers surplus by using numerical analyses to study the mpe of the r d race the paper demonstrates the circumstances under which a weak patent protection regime that facilitates free imitation of any intermediate technology may yield a higher consumers surplus and total surplus than a regime that awards a patent for the final innovation the advantage of imitation may hold even when we allow for voluntary licensing of intermediate technologies

innovation and the persistence of monopoly abstract the auction framework enables us to highlight a crucial feature of many r d races the losing firm can recoup part but not the entirety of its r d investments this feature is shown to account for the marked differences in results obtained by gilbert and newbery and by reinganum when the firm investing the largest amount wins with certainty we establish the existence of a unique equilibrium neither firm employs a pure strategy and the incumbent wins more often than the challenger

characterizing sustainability the converse of hartwick s rule this note offers a general proof of the converse of hartwick s rule namely that in an economy with stationary instantaneous preferences and a stationary technology an efficient constant utility path is characterized by the value of net investments being zero at each point in time in a one consumption economy with two stocks a stock of a natural resource and a stock of man made capital this means that if consumption remains constant at the maximum sustainable level then the accumulation of man made capital always exactly compensates in value for the depletion of the natural resource

process innovation activity in a mixed oligopoly the role of cooperatives this article develops a sequential game theoretic model of heterogeneous producers to examine the market and welfare effects of cooperative involvement in process innovation activity in the agricultural sector the analysis examines an open membership input supplying cooperative co op that maximizes member welfare and finances its innovation activity through retained earnings analytical results show that the presence of the co op can increase the arrival rate of innovations while reducing the price of agricultural inputs cooperative involvement in innovation activity can thus be welfare enhancing and socially desirable with its effectiveness being determined by the degree of producer heterogeneity and the size of innovation costs

dynamic r d competition with learning to account for the possibility that firms are unsure about the ease of innovation we formulate a differential game of r d competition with an unknown hazard rate we show as time passes with success firms become more pessimistic about eventual innovation reducing their r d investment and possibly exiting the race an increase in the number of competing firms tends to increase firms r d intensities for given beliefs but because beliefs evolve at different rates depending on the number of firms in the race time paths of r d investment intensity are not unambiguously ordered with respect to the number of competing firms

fifteen years of bt cotton in china the economic impact and its dynamics summary even though the economic benefit of bt cotton adoption in the short run has been well documented the dynamics of this benefit remain unclear in particular the possibility of pest resistance build up and secondary pest outbreaks has caused concern regarding the sustainability of this economic benefit in the long run hence this study analyzes the economic impact of bt cotton and its dynamics in china using nationally representative long panel data for 1997 2012 we show that this economic benefit continues 15 years after the commercialization of bt cotton

a bayesian approach to real options the case of distinguishing between temporary and permanent shocks traditional real options models demonstrate the importance of the option to wait due to uncertainty over future shocks to project cash flows however there is often another important source of uncertainty uncertainty over the permanence of past shocks adding bayesian uncertainty over the permanence of past shocks augments the traditional option to wait with an additional option to learn the implied investment behavior differs significantly from that in standard models for example investment may occur at a time of stable or decreasing cash flows respond sluggishly to cash flow shocks and depend on the timing of project cash flows during the past two decades the real options approach to valuation of irreversible investment opportunities has become part of the mainstream literature in financial economics the central idea is that the opportunity to invest is equivalent to an american call option on the underlying investment project as a consequence the problem of optimal investment timing is analogous to the optimal exercise decision for an american option applications of the real options approach are now numerous 1 one feature that is common to virtually all real options models is that the underlying uncertainty pertains only to future shocks since future cash flows are uncertain there is an important opportunity cost of investing today the value of the asset might go up so that tomorrow will be an even better time to invest this opportunity cost is often referred to in the literature as the option

biofuels and the poor global impact pathways of biofuels on agricultural markets this study seeks to assess the future impacts of biofuel production on regional agricultural and related sectors over the next decade with a specific focus on the vulnerable regions of developing nations using a modification of the gtap modeling platform to account for the global interactions of regional biofuel and food markets the analysis shows that biofuel production levels depend on the assumption about the future price of energy and the nature of the substitutability between biofuels and petroleum based transport fuels low energy prices reduce the demand for biofuels and thus require greater government support to meet the desired production targets at the other extreme when prices are high and there is scope for substituting biofuels for petroleum based fuels the volume of biofuels produced will exceed the mandates even when biofuels are being mainly produced in developed countries our results indicate that there are impact pathways that extend far beyond the borders of the us brazil and the eu prices of feedstock and non feedstock commodities rise in developing countries there is also a rise in value added from the agricultural sector a gain that is enjoyed by the owners of land and labor including unskilled hence to the extent that agriculture is a key sector in getting growth started and addressing poverty needs the emergence of biofuels can in this way at least be a positive force

an evolutionary approach to understanding international business activity the co evolution of mnes and the institutional environment this paper examines the co evolution of mne activities and institutions external and internal to the firm we develop a theoretical framework for this analysis that draws on the more recent writings of douglass north on institutions as a response to complex forms of uncertainty associated with the rise in global economic interconnectedness and of richard nelson on the co evolution of technology and institutions we link historical changes in the character of mne activities to changes in the institutional environment and highlight the scope for firm level creativity and institutional entrepreneurship that may lead to co evolution with the environment we argue that the main drivers for institutional entrepreneurship are now found in the increasing autonomy of mne subsidiaries thus mne agency derives from more decentralized forms of experimentation in international corporate networks which competence creating nodes of new initiatives can co evolve with local institutions unlike most other streams of related literature our approach connects patterns of institutional change in wider business systems with more micro processes of variety generation and experimentation within and across individual firms this form of co evolutionary analysis is increasingly important to understanding the interrelationships between mne activities and public policy

can public private partnerships leverage private investment in agricultural value chains in africa a preliminary review summary public private partnerships ppps may be one way of increasing the level of private sector investment into poorly performing agricultural value chains this paper considers a range of ppp mechanisms that respond to different market failures affecting such chains and draws on principal agent theory to illustrate the challenges it reviews emerging experience with a number of these mechanisms along with experience from other sectors that may shed light on generic problems of implementing ppps in africa while finding some positive impacts on investment it notes that state failures can also undermine ppp effectiveness as the evidence base is still limited it calls on organizations promoting innovative ppps to disclose available information for critical examination

genuine savings and sustainability genuine savings gs has emerged as the leading economic indicator of sustainable economic development at the country level it derives from the literatures on weak sustainability wealth accounting and national income accounting we discuss the theoretical underpinnings of gs focusing on the relationship between changes in a nation s extended capital stock and the future path of consumption the indicator has entered widespread use propelled by the world bank s publications despite its varying performance as a predictor for future consumption notwithstanding the extensive body of literature reviewed promising future research avenues are identified

the potential benefits of herbicide resistant transgenic rice in uruguay lessons for small developing countries abstract in many developing countries the potential benefits from adopting a transgenic variety developed by a multinational corporation are limited by the crop s small production base this paper presents an ex ante evaluation of the economic impact of herbicide resistant transgenic rice in a small developing country uruguay to fully account for the multinational s market power the firm s seed markup is assumed to affect the adoption rate for the variety stochastic simulation techniques are employed to understand how potential benefits may vary with changes in technology yield costs and adoption parameters the results indicate a 1 82 million mean net present value for producers from the development and utilization of transgenic rice in uruguay and 0 55 million for the multinational these relatively small multinational firm benefits suggest that a firm will not undertake significant efforts to develop transgenic varieties adapted to local conditions without either strategic partnerships with local institutions or access to wider regional markets

learning about the arrival of sales abstract we analyse optimal stopping when the economic environment changes because of learning a primary application is optimal selling of an asset when demand is uncertain the seller learns about the arrival rate of buyers as time passes without a sale the seller becomes more pessimistic about the arrival rate when the arrival of buyers is not observed the rate at which the seller revises her beliefs is affected by the price she sets learning leads to a higher posted price by the seller when the seller does observe the arrival of buyers she sets an even higher price

policy uncertainty and the sequence of entry by japanese firms 1980 1998 we extend the stages model of internationalization to incorporate a sophisticated consideration of temporal and cross national variation in the uncertainty of the policy environment using a sample of 6465 international expansions of 665 japanese manufacturing firms in 49 countries we develop arguments from internationalization and bargaining power perspectives to show how japanese firms manage policy uncertainty in host country environments through the within country sequencing of investments although a distribution to manufacturing entry sequence tends to prevail in countries with low levels of policy uncertainty as uncertainty in the policy environment increases initial entry by distribution is increasingly likely to be eschewed in favor of an initial entry by a joint venture manufacturing plant we suggest that this change in investment sequence occurs as firms shift from an emphasis on developing knowledge about local markets and consumers in low hazards markets to an international expansion strategy in uncertain policy environments that places knowledge development of the policy environment at the forefront of a firm s strategy

hartwick s rule and maximin paths when the exhaustible resource has an amenity value abstract this paper studies the maximin paths of the canonical dasgupta heal solow model when the stock of natural capital is a direct argument of well being besides consumption hartwick s rule then appears as an efficient tool to characterize solutions in a variety of settings we start with the case without technical progress we obtain an explicit solution of the maximin problem in the case where production and utility are cobb douglas when the utility function is ces with a low elasticity of substitution between consumption and natural capital we show that it is optimal to preserve forever a critical level of natural capital determined endogeneously we then study how technical progress affects the optimal maximin paths in the cobb douglas utility case on the long run path of the economy capital production and consumption grow at a common constant rate while the resource stock decreases at a constant rate and is therefore completely depleted in the very long run a higher amenity value of the resource stock leads to faster economic growth but to a lower long run rate of depletion we then develop a complete analysis of the dynamics of the maximin problem when the sole source of well being is consumption and provide a numerical resolution of the model with resource amenity the economy consumes produces and invests less in the short run if the resource has an amenity value than if it does not whereas it is the contrary in the medium and long runs however and without surprise the resource stock remains for ever higher with resource amenity than without

roundup ready soybeans in argentina farm level and aggregate welfare effects although adoption rates of genetically modified crops have been staggering in some countries there is still comparatively little evidence about biotechnology impacts under diverse agroecological and institutional conditions these knowledge gaps lead to an overly precautious attitude among policy makers and the public this article analyzes the effects of roundup ready rr soybeans in argentina the country with the second biggest transgenic area worldwide based on recent survey data it is shown that the technology increases total factor productivity by 10 on average with cost savings being somewhat more pronounced for smaller than for larger farms the reduction in use of toxic herbicides and of tillage operations entails positive environmental repercussions aggregate welfare effects are computed over the 1996 2001 period with a three region partial equilibrium model comprising argentina the united states and the rest of the world in 2001 rr soybeans created more than us 1 2 billion of economic surplus at the global level the largest share went to consumers 53 followed by seed and biotechnology firms 34 and agricultural producers 13 due to comparatively weak intellectual property protection and thus only small technology mark ups in seed prices and widespread adoption argentine soybean growers receive 90 of the benefits in that country this demonstrates that farmers in developing countries can gain considerably when they obtain access to suitable foreign innovations through technology spill overs

experimenting with contests for experimentation we report an experimental test of alternative rules in innovation contests when success may not be feasible and contestants may learn from each other following halac kartik and liu in press the contest designer can vary the prize allocation rule from winner take all wta in which the first successful innovator receives the entire prize to shared in which all successful innovators during the contest duration share in the prize the designer can also vary the information disclosure policy from public in which at each period all information about contestants past successes and failures is publicly available to private in which contestants only know their own histories in our setting the optimal contest design in terms of maximizing the probability that at least one innovator is successful depends on the probability of successful innovation given that innovation is feasible under some parameters the designer will prefer a wta public contest while under others he will prefer shared private our experiments provide evidence that private disclosure contests behaviorally dominate public disclosure regardless of the prize allocation rule and moreover that shared private contests dominate wta private contests

innovation and cooperation implications for competition and antitrust n k robel laureate robert solow and his colleagues on mit s industrial productivity commission recently noted dertouzos lester and solow 1989 p 7 undeveloped cooperative relationships between individuals and between organizations stand out in our industry studies as obstacles to technological innovation and the improvement of industrial performance and later p 105 that interfirm cooperation in the u s has often though not always been inhibited by government antitrust regulation these striking conclusions warrant further exploration unfortunately industrial organization textbooks still discuss horizontal cooperation and competition almost exclusively in terms of standard cartel theory on the other hand vertical cooperation contracting is viewed differently and some textbooks provide treatments of supplier buyer relationships in which cooperation is viewed as enhancing efficiency both in the textbooks and in policy discussion among economists cooperation among competitors is highly suspect being perhaps the last bastion of what was once referred to as the inhospitality tradition in antitrust as a result very little literature addresses how cooperation among competitors can promote competition notwithstanding that cooperation among competitors may sometimes be essential if innovating firms are to compete in today s increasingly global markets imai and baba 1989 such cooperation is already important in japan and in europe 1

constant savings rates and quasi arithmetic population growth under exhaustible resource constraints in the dasgupta heal solow stiglitz dhss model of capital accumulation and resource depletion we show the following equivalence if an efficient path has constant gross and net of population growth savings rates then population growth must be quasi arithmetic and the path is a maximin or a classical utilitarian optimum conversely if a path is optimal according to maximin or classical utilitarianism with constant elasticity of marginal utility under quasi arithmetic population growth then the gross and net of population growth savings rates converge asymptotically to constants

informational externalities with lump sum sampling we consider a game of strategic experimentation where agents are restricted to an all or nothing sampling strategy the strategic interaction between agents due to informational externalities is affected by the sizes of the experimentation samples and the sensitivity of information to changes in sample sizes there is experimentation only if the overall sample is large enough equilibrium may involve optimal insufficient or excessive experimentation relative to a second best welfare benchmark this unusual over experimentation result is associated not necessarily with large samples but with a low elasticity of the value of information with respect to the sample size nous etudions un probleme d experimentation strategique dans lequel les agents sont contraints par une strategie d experimentation du type tout ou rien l interaction strategique entre les agents est affectee par la taille de l echantillon sur lequel on experimente et la sensibilite de l information dans les changements de cette taille il y a experimentation seulement si l echantillon total est suffisamment grand l experimentation peut etre optimale insuffisante ou excessive en comparaison avec un optimum social de second rang ce resultat inhabituel d experimentation excessive n est pas forcement associea un echantillon grand mais a une faible elasticite de la valeur de l information par rapport a la taille de l echantillon

capital controls and foreign direct investment abstract this paper examines the effect of three types of capital control policies on fdi a the existence of multiple exchange rates b restrictions on capital account and c restrictions on the repatriation of export proceeds we find that the impact of capital controls on fdi varies by region and has changed over time in the 1970s and 1980s none of the policies had a significant impact on fdi in the 1990s all three were significant furthermore capital controls have no effect on fdi to sub saharan africa and the middle east but affects fdi to east asia and latin america adversely

the future of small farms trajectories and policy priorities summary while smallholder development has in the past led to reductions in poverty and hunger does this still apply in today s more globalized world this paper reviews the debates on the contemporary role of agriculture in development and the case for small farms in light of the rise of supermarkets lower commodity prices and liberalized trade agricultural research funding environmental change hiv aids and changing policy ideas although the answers vary greatly by context for many low income countries smallholder development remains a key option the policy agenda however has changed in addition to providing public goods the growing challenge is to overcome market failures which is largely a matter of institutional innovation

the economics of formal business networks abstract this paper analyzes the under researched issue of formal business networks comprising voluntary groupings of entrepreneurs who share knowledge and experiences between themselves economic analysis is used to show how formal business networks which enable entrepreneurs to share good and bad practice can improve efficiency and social welfare the paper also derives conditions for the existence and equilibrium size of formal business networks two principles of network design are proposed to promote their stability and to avoid their collapse

carbon prices for the next hundred years this paper examines the socially optimal pricing of carbon emissions over time when climate change impacts are unknown potentially high consequence events the carbon price tends to increase with income but learning about impacts or their absence decouples the carbon price from income growth the price should grow faster than the economy if the past warming is not substantial enough for learning the true long run social cost it grows slower than the economy as soon as the warming generates information about events that could have arrived but have not done so a quantitative assessment shows that the price grows roughly at the rate of the economy for the next 100 years

intertemporal equity and hartwick s rule in an exhaustible resource model in a standard exhaustible resource model it is known that if along a competitive path investment in the augmentable capital good equals the rents on the exhaustible resource known as hartwick s rule then the path is equitable in the sense that the consumption level is constant over time in this paper we show the converse of this result if a competitive path is equitable then it must satisfy hartwick s rule

the seed and agricultural biotechnology industries in india an analysis of industry structure competition and policy options since the late 1980s technological advances and policy reforms have created new opportunities for private sector investment in india s seed and agricultural biotechnology industries these changes have had a significant impact on cotton yields and output in india but less so for rice and wheat the country s main cereal staples for which yield growth rates are tending toward stagnation this analysis examines the structures of these industries their potential effects on competition and innovation and the policies that may improve both industry performance and the delivery of new productivity enhancing technologies to india s cereal production systems our findings suggest that more substantive policy reforms are needed to encourage further innovation reduce regulatory uncertainty and encourage firm and industry level growth while continued public spending on agricultural research is needed to support technological change

keeping your options open in standard models of experimentation the costs of project development consist of i the direct cost of running trials as well as ii the implicit opportunity cost of leaving alternative projects idle another natural type of experimentation cost the cost of holding on to the option of developing a currently inactive project has not been studied in a multi armed bandit model of experimentation in which inactive projects have explicit maintenance costs and can be irreversibly discarded i fully characterise the optimal experimentation policy and show that the decision maker s incentive to actively manage its options has important implications for the order of project development in the model an experimenter searches for a success among a number of projects by choosing both those to develop now and those to maintain for potential future development in the absence of maintenance costs the optimal experimentation policy has a stay with the winner property the projects that are more likely to succeed are developed rst maintenance costs provide incentives to bring the option value of less promising projects forward and under the optimal experimentation policy projects that are less likely to succeed are sometimes developed

host country environment and subsidiary competence extending the diamond network model we extend the centers of excellence concept to address the diversity and multidimensionality of subsidiary competence using rugman and verbeke s diamond network model we hypothesize the contingencies influencing the links between host country environments and subsidiary competence configuration and provide evidence from more than 2000 subsidiaries in seven european countries our results provide new insights into how multinational enterprises can overcome unbalanced national diamonds by acquiring complementary capabilities across borders

sustained development of a society with a renewable resource abstract a maximin program is applied to a policy of sustaining a simple society whose population is dependent on a resource subject to logistic growth regular and non regular paths are characterized there are continua of both regular and non regular solutions the type depending on the initial conditions a non regular path involves an intermediate part in which the sustainment constraint is not effective all solutions are time consistent and pareto optimal because a problem may not be regular it is not valid to assume that sustainment implies constant utility

systems of innovation theory and the changing architecture of agricultural research in africa abstract this paper examines the on going evolution of the organisational architecture of agricultural research in africa once considered a rural backwater populated by agronomists extension agents and farmers agricultural research is now being explicitly placed within global debates about innovation technology institutions and development this is reflected in a growing interest in the use of systems of innovation theory to both understand and reform innovation processes within agriculture the basic argument put forward in the paper is that the conception of a global agricultural research system and associated efforts to create a coordinated multi layered supra national research infrastructure are at odds with both the realities of research at national level and the bio physical and socio economic heterogeneity that characterises rural africa it is suggested that a less directive approach to support for agricultural research is required to allow national characteristics and differences to come to the fore and to give more room for the development of the all important demand side

constant utility paths and irreversible global warming this paper shows that the hartwick rule for sustainable utility with depletable resources still applies to the case of the greenhouse effect from fossil fuel carbon emissions although a carbon tax is necessary for sustainable utility it is sufficient that the sum of net energy rents and carbon tax revenues is invested in reproducible capital examination of recent savings rates and energy cost shares suggests that this may be difficult to achieve with current global savings rates jel classification q32

impact of bt cotton in china abstract a sample of 283 cotton farmers in northern china was surveyed in december 1999 farmers that used cotton engineered to produce the bacillus thuringiensis bt toxin substantially reduced the use of pesticide without reducing the output ha or quality of cotton this resulted in substantial economic benefits for small farmers consumers did not benefit directly farmers obtained the major share of benefits and because of weak intellectual property rights very little went back to government research institutes or foreign firms that developed these varieties farmers using bt cotton reported fewer pesticide poisonings than those using conventional cotton

the politics of technological upgrading international transfer to and adaptation of gm cotton in argentina summary we describe patterns of international transfer to and adaptation of genetically modified gm cotton in argentina and ask whether political bargaining between the technology owner a multinational enterprise mne and host country actors may have influenced upgrading we suggest that the mne was able to use its exclusive capacity to upgrade gm cotton technologies as a negotiation tool to persuade host actors to change the rules that affected its multi lines of business in the country this implies wider policy scope to encourage technology upgrading host actors could negotiate over a wider range of aspects of interest to mnes

perspectives on multinational enterprises in emerging economies multinational enterprises mnes play a pivotal role in the development of many emerging economies in consequence they became the focus of scholarly research by economists and policy analysts in contrast international business scholars have been comparatively uninterested in analysing this role of mnes yet they could make important contributions to these debates first studies taking the individual firms as starting point would enhance understanding of the interaction between mnes and the local environment second theories and research methodologies developed in international business research could provide new insights into the dynamics of mnes in emerging economies the objective of this paper is to motivate more international business scholars to engage in research on positive and negative spillovers from foreign direct investment fdi in emerging economy societies to advance this research agenda scholars need to analyse the specific activities and capabilities of the firms involved and the impact of fdi on the broader social and environmental context for management this agenda raises the ethical question to what extent ought businesses to care about their local stakeholders

product market competition and r d rivalry abstract this paper analyzes the impact of a future r d race on current firm behavior in the product market it is shown that in order to soften rivals in the future r d race firms behave less aggressively in the pre innovation product market than in the standard duopoly models as a result the r d rates are lower than what firms would choose if standard duopoly outcomes are assumed r d cooperation is shown to be capable of restoring the duopoly outcome

private sector incentives and the diffusion of agricultural technology evidence from developing countries abstractthe role of intellectual property rights iprs has been extensively debated in the literature on technology transfers and agricultural productivity growth in developing countries however few studies offer cross country evidence on how iprs affect yield growth by incentivising private sector investment in cultivar improvement we address this knowledge gap by testing technology diffusion patterns for six major crops using a unique dataset for the period 1961 2010 and an arellano bond linear dynamic panel data estimation approach findings indicate that biological and legal forms of iprs promote yield gap convergence between developed and developing countries although effects vary by crop

characteristics of foreign subsidiaries in industry clusters this paper examines the characteristics of foreign owned subsidiaries in export intensive leading edge industry clusters as defined by porter 1990 using a sample of 229 subsidiaries from three countries we show that subsidiaries in such clusters are more embedded more autonomous and more internationally oriented than subsidiaries in other industry sectors we also show that there are significant differences in the roles of foreign owned subsidiaries from one leading edge cluster to the next that are associated with the dynamism of the cluster and the overall level of foreign ownership the results indicate 1 that typologies of subsidiary roles should give increased consideration to environmental factors and 2 that thinking on industry clusters instead of treating them identically should recognize that they have heterogeneous characteristics

production experiences and market structure in r d competition abstract in the rd and ii the likelihood of persistent leadership increases with the value of being the winner and the value of being a loser but decreases with expected waiting time of r d innovation and the flow of monopoly profits however destructive innovations may still occur even when production experiences are allowed to play an important role in the r d competition

sustainability of an economy relying on two reproducible assets evaluating the sustainability of a society requires a system of shadow or accounting values derived from the sustainability objective as a first step toward the derivation of such shadow values for a maximin objective this paper studies an economy composed of two reproducible assets each producing one of two consumption goods the effect of the substitutability between goods in utility is studied by postulating in turn neoclassical diminishing marginal substitutability perfect substitutability and perfect complementarity the degree of substitutability has strong effects on the maximin solution affecting the regularity or non regularity of the program and on the accounting values this has important consequences for the computation of genuine savings and the sustainability prospects of future generations

supplying crop biotechnology to the poor opportunities and constraints abstract unlike the public sector research that launched the green revolution private firms based in industrialised countries have done the majority of agricultural biotechnology research and almost all commercialisation of genetically modified gm crops this paper examines consequences of the emergence of a few large companies as leaders in the commercialisation of biotechnology by addressing issues of access to technology costs of conducting research and distribution of economic benefits to provide context we first review the status of crop biotechnology research globally who is benefiting from the technology we then analyse the role of intellectual property rights market access and industry concentration public sector research and gm crop biosafety regulations in determining observed r d by firms the paper recommends policy measures that allow transfer of current technology to the poor and generate more biotechnology research focused on problems of the poor

institutions transaction costs and entry mode choice in eastern europe the process of change from a centrally planned system to a market economy generates an institutional framework that is only partially reformed and therefore inconsistent and unstable this leads to high transaction costs for economic agents multinational enterprises entering transition countries have to adapt their strategies to the local institutions and reduce exposure to highly imperfect markets this paper analyzes how the costs of organizing business in transition environments influence entry mode choice the empirical results show that host country institutions in transition economies have an impact on the choice of entry modes moreover different mechanisms determine the internalization of managerial and technological knowledge

financing agricultural research international investment patterns and policy perspectives abstract for much of the post wwii period governments in rich and poor countries alike have increased public spending on and performance of agricultural research the public involvement in and policies toward agricultural research and development r d have undergone a sea of change in more recent years in this article we document these changes focusing on the public and rapidly evolving private roles in financing agricultural r d and the international dimensions of these funding and policy issues we restate the principles for government intervention in research and highlight the financing aspects of these interventions before concluding the paper with some reflections on the implications of all these changes for internationally conceived and funded public agricultural r d

global water crisis and future food security in an era of climate change food policy should serve humanity by advancing the humane goals of eradicating extreme poverty and hunger however these goals have recently been challenged by emerging forces including climate change water scarcity the energy crisis as well as the credit crisis this paper analyses the overall role of these forces and population growth in redefining global food security specifically global water supply and demand as well as the linkages between water supply and food security are examined the analysis reveals that the water for food security situation is intricate and might get daunting if no action is taken investments are needed today for enhancing future food security this requires action on several fronts including tackling climate change preserving land and conserving water reducing the energy footprint in food systems developing and adopting climate resilient varieties modernising irrigation infrastructure shoring up domestic food supplies reforming international food trade and responding to other global challenges

the drivers of foreign direct investment into research and development an empirical investigation this paper examines the determinants of foreign direct investment fdi in research and development laboratories by 32 multinational enterprises in the pharmaceutical and electronics industries the paper applies a dichotomous set of motives for fdi results from an econometric analysis of 136 laboratory investments show that relative market size and relative strength of a country s science base determine whether fdi in research and development is carried out in order to exploit existing firm specific advantages or in order to build up new firm specific advantages this holds true in similar form for japanese european and u s firms and across the two industries

dynamic r d competition the authors study a simple two stage stochastic patent race involving two firms they examine the behavior of the participants as they gain the lead or fall behind in the race the authors find that the leader engages in rd 2 a policy of issuing patents for intermediate research results and 3 the effects of research joint ventures whereby the firms coordinate their initial research efforts and share their results copyright 1987 by royal economic society

population growth and natural resource scarcity long run development under seemingly unfavorable conditions in this paper i consider an economy that is constrained by the use of natural resources and driven by knowledge accumulation resources are essential inputs in all sectors i show that population growth and poor input substitution are not detrimental but on the contrary are even necessary to obtain a sustainable consumption level i find a general rule to define the conditions for a constant innovation rate the rule does not apply to capital but to labor growth which is the crucial input in research furthermore the rule relates to the sectoral structure of the economy and to demographic transition the results continue to hold with a backstop technology and are extended for the case of minimum resource constraints

decentralised r d and strategic competitiveness globalised approaches to generation and use of technology in multinational enterprises mnes abstract using material from surveys of multinational enterprise mne production subsidiaries and laboratories operating in the uk the paper seeks to discern vital changes in the roles of such r d facilities from the primarily tactical and technologically dependent role of adapting established group products for the local market these labs now take more committed positions in support of their group s strategic competitiveness this can involve a much more profound involvement in original product development or inputs into programmes of pre competitive basic or applied research to support the longer term evolution of the core technology of the mne group it is suggested that this evolution of decentralised labs positioning in mne knowledge strategies implies i an increasing involvement in product development rather than adaptation ii an interdependent rather than dependent position in group technology programmes iii increased relevance of supply side influences host country technology competencies capacities and heritage iv decline of centralising forces on r d e g economies of scale communication and co ordination problems concerns of knowledge security

changing locus of agricultural research will the poor benefit from biotechnology and privatization trends over the past decade the locus of agricultural research and development has shifted dramatically from the public to the private multinational sector three interrelated forces are transforming the system for supplying improved agricultural technologies to the world s farmers the first is the strengthened and evolving environment for protecting intellectual property in plant innovations the second is the rapid pace of discovery and growth in importance of molecular biology and genetic engineering finally agricultural input and output trade is becoming more open in nearly all countries these developments have created a powerful new set of incentives for private research investment altering the structure of the public private agricultural research endeavor particularly with respect to crop improvement

balancing private and state ownership in emerging markets telecommunications infrastructure country industry and firm influences bargaining between host states and investors over the terms of investment in sensitive sectors of the economy generates political and economic tensions in this study we investigate the factors that contribute to the outcomes of those negotiations as measured by the private vs state owned share of newly consummated telecommunications infrastructure projects we find that private ownership is positively associated with overall economic development and investment liberalization in the host country and with greenfield vs divestiture and joint venture vs wholly owned projects private ownership is negatively associated with existing telecommunications infrastructure higher levels of state ownership of foreign investing firms and the technological sophistication of the projects our analysis also shows a curvilinear inverted u shaped relationship between investment policy hazards and private ownership this finding supports the insight from transaction cost economics that potential gains from internalization are greatest at intermediate levels of uncertainty

a dynamic game of r and d patent protection and competitive behavior a theory of dynamic optimal resource allocation to r and d in an n firm industry is developed using differential games this technique represents a synthesis of the analytic methods previously applied to the problem static game theory and optimal control the use of particular functional forms allows the computation and detailed discussion of the nash equilibrium in investment rules this paper addresses the problem of resource allocation to research and development among the important issues that a firm engaging in r and d must evaluate are uncertainty regarding the feasibility and profitability of a particular innovation the possibility of a protracted development period the possibility that a rival firm may innovate first capturing either a patent or a significant share of the new market the possibility that a rival firm may imitate the innovation and appropriate some of the profits in the new market in what follows we will develop a theory of optimal resource allocation to research and development which incorporates the aspects of r and d enumerated above we will use a dynamic game theoretic analysis determining the nash equilibrium strategies for n identical firms the availability of perfect patent protection is shown to accelerate development of the innovation and the effect of increasing rivalry is addressed the impact of increasing rivalry on nash equilibrium investment in r and d depends upon the degree of appropriability of rewards if patent protection is perfect then increasing the number of nash rivals results in increased r and d effort however when imitation is rewarded the opposite may be true finally some notions of competitive and perfectly competitive equilibrium are examined in the context of the model developed below

competitive experimentation with private information the survivor s curse we study a winner take all r d race between two firms that are privately informed about the arrival rate of an invention over time each firm only observes whether the opponent left the race or not the equilibrium displays a strong herding effect that we call a survivor s curse unlike in the case of symmetric information the two firms may quit the race nearly simultaneously even when their costs and benefits for research differ significantly

recent developments in intellectual property and power in the private sector related to food and agriculture the legal protection of intellectual property ip has allowed private persons and enterprises to assert exclusive rights in relation to certain agricultural innovations whether through the protection of breeding innovations under plant variety rights protection laws or through the patenting of genes and gene fragments the increasing involvement of iprs in agriculture has effected a shift of agricultural research from public to private institutions this article examines the changes in the international ip landscape which has facilitated these developments and looks at the impacts of modern ip developments upon agricultural research and farmers it concludes with a consideration of ip liability issues arising from the development of gm agriculture

a characterization of sustainability with indicators abstract economists favor the use of criteria to characterize sustainability in practice policy makers use indicators i e measurements based on the current economic state and decisions representing given sustainability issues in this paper i introduce a criterion characterizing sustainability with indicators and thresholds acting as constraints i interpret the thresholds as minimal rights to be guaranteed to all generations and define sustainable trajectories as those satisfying all the constraints at all times the new criterion is a generalized maximin criterion the approach is applied to a simple production consumption economy with non renewable resources to derive some policy recommendations on the use of indicators to deal with sustainability i discuss the implications of such a criterion in terms of trade off between sustainability thresholds efficiency and time consistency in particular the resulting problem is time inconsistent and sustainability thresholds may be revised over time following the time inconsistent policy based on indicators with dynamic revision of the thresholds may however result in a sustained utility path and even in utility growth