fixed prices versus predetermined prices and the equilibrium probability of price adjustment abstract elsewhere papers comparing fixed prices with predetermined prices have assumed that the frequency of re setting price contracts is equal in either case this note demonstrates that in equilibrium the frequency of re setting price contracts is greater with fixed prices than predetermined prices

the inexorable and mysterious tradeoff between inflation and unemployment this paper discusses the short run tradeoff between inflation and unemployment although this tradeoff remains a necessary building block of business cycle theory economists have yet to provide a completely satisfactory explanation for it according to the consensus view among central bankers and monetary economists a contractionary monetary shock raises unemployment at least temporarily and leads to a delayed and gradual fall in inflation standard dynamic models of price adjustment however cannot explain this pattern of responses reconciling the consensus view about the effects of monetary policy with models of price adjustment remains an outstanding puzzle for business cycle theorists several years ago i gave myself a peculiar assignment i decided to try to summarise all of economics in ten simply stated principles the purpose of this task was to introduce students to the economic way of thinking in the first chapter of my textbook principles of economics i figured if god could boil all of moral philosophy down to ten commandments i should be able to do much the same with economic science most of the ten principles i chose were microeconomic and hard to argue with they involved the importance of tradeoffs marginal analysis the benefits of trade market efficiency market failure and so on i allocated the last three principles to macroeconomics the first of these was a country s standard of living depends on its ability to produce goods and services which i viewed as the foundation of all growth theory the second was prices rise when the government prints too much money which i took to be the essence of classical monetary theory the last of my ten principles is the subject of today s lecture society faces a short run tradeoff between inflation and unemployment perhaps not surprisingly this statement turned out to be controversial when my publisher sent out the manuscript for review a few readers objected

environmental influences on mne subsidiary roles economic integration and the nordic countries we seek to examine the importance of environmental factors in determining mne subsidiary roles in particular we examine the environmental factors associated with deep integration schemes such as the eu such schemes require a convergence of economic structure due to the establishment of common regional institutions regulations and policies specifically we distinguish between the scope of activities performed by subsidiaries and the level of competence of those subsidiaries the empirical analysis is based on a large scale survey of foreign owned units in denmark finland and norway these nordic countries differ with regard to their eu membership status norway being the outsider while the others are members but are very similar to each other in most other respects our data show that subsidiaries in norway report significantly lower scores for both scope of activities and levels of competence the effects remain strong even when we are controlling for other potentially influential factors the findings indicate that being on the outside of the eu may indeed carry the price of becoming less attractive to mne activity

international comparisons of welfare and poverty dominance orderings for ten countries inference based stochastic dominance procedures are applied to luxembourg income study data to rank ten western countries in terms of standards of living and poverty first order dominance comparisons ranks more than 50 percent of all pairwise comparisons and second order generalized lorenz dominance adds another 25 percent truncated dominance analysis is used to make inferences about poverty and up to 98 percent of the truncated distributions are ordered the results differ substantially from those obtained when only relative incomes and inequality are considered

u s multinationals and preferential market access this paper examines the relationship between oshoring activity by u s multinational rms and the structure of u s trade preferences we combine rm level panel data on u s foreign aliate activity from the u s bureau of economic analysis bea with detailed measures of u s trade preferences from the u s international trade commission usitc to create a three way panel that spans 80 industries 184 countries and ten years 1997 2006 consistent with existing theory we nd that o shoring and preferential market access are positively and consistently correlated both in the pooled sample and within countries industries and years using both instru mental variables and simultaneous equations approaches to address the endogeneity of export oriented foreign investment we nd that a 10 increase in u s foreign aliate exports to the u s from a particular industry and country is associated with a 4 per centage point increase in the rate of preferential duty free access restricting attention to the generalized system of preferences gsp among potentially eligible develop ing countries we nd that the inuence of multinational aliate sales on preferential market access more than triples

when different market concentration indices agree abstract the herfindahl hirschman entropy and n firm indices may not agree when comparing market concentrations for different oligopoly markets the majorization pre ordering is shown to be both necessary and sufficient for all to agree

monetary policy for rationally inattentive economies with staggered price setting the paper examines the optimal monetary policy when firms are constrained by information processing capability and infrequent price adjustments firms information processing limit gives rise to imperfect knowledge about macroeconomic aggregates and endogenous information learning contingent on the monetary policy staggered price setting introduces the observed price duration and additional policy tradeoffs resulting from the interactions between nominal rigidities and imperfect information processing the integrated model implies an optimal policy that commits to complete price stabilization in response to natural rate shocks but not in response to markup shocks in the presence of markup shocks it is optimal for the central bank to focus on price stabilization in the initial periods following markup shocks and shifts the emphasis to output gap stabilization later moreover larger information capacity stronger complementarities and more persistent shocks require more aggressive price stabilization in the short run

the impossibility of a progressive tax structure abstract when households are identical in all respects other than income a non decreasing average tax rate is both necessary and sufficient for post tax incomes to be always at least as equal as pre tax incomes this paper investigates whether this well known result can be extended to households with different needs a tax structure which never increases inequality in the lorenz sense is shown to be unable to discriminate between household types if in addition the tax structure never reduces the relative income of the poorest member of the neediest group of households then the same proportional tax must be applied to all households and redistribution is impossible either within or between groups of households with differing needs a similar conclusion is reached using conventional equivalence scale arguments and also applies when the parameters of the tax schedules are determined endogenously we discuss the significance of this impossibility result and its implications for tax design

rank dominance and international comparisons of income distributions abstract the rank dominance criterion for comparing income distributions assumes the pareto principle anonymity and population size invariance this paper applies rank dominance to compare international income distributions empirically rank dominance is a powerful tool for ordering income distributions our results suggest that much of the power of generalized lorenz dominance is due to efficiency preference and equity preference adds only marginally to the ability to order income distributions

the e correspondence principle we present a new application of samuelson s correspondence principle to the analysis of comparative dynamics in stochastic rational expectations models our version which we call the e correspondence principle applies to rational expectations equilibria that are stable under least squares and closely related learning rules with this technique it is sometimes possible to study without explicitly solving for the equilibrium how qualitative properties of the equilibrium are affected by changes in the model parameters applications to overlapping generations and new keynesian models illustrate the potential of the technique

testing for indeterminacy an application to u s monetary policy reply this paper considers a prototypical new keynesian model in which the equilibrium is undetermined if monetary policy is passive the likelihood based estimation of dynamic equilibrium models is extended to allow for indeterminacies and sunspot fluctuations we construct posterior weights for the determinacy and indeterminacy region of the parameter space and estimates for the propagation of fundamental and sunspot shocks according to the estimated model u s monetary policy post 1982 is consistent with determinacy whereas the pre volcker policy is not we find that before 1979 indeterminacy substantially altered the propagation of shocks

information rigidity and the expectations formation process a simple framework and new facts we propose a new approach to test the full information rational expectations hypothesis which can identify whether rejections of the null arise from irrationality or limited information this approach quantifies the economic significance of departures from the null by quantifying the underlying degree of information rigidity applying this approach to u s and international data of professional forecasters and other agents yields pervasive evidence consistent with models of imperfect information furthermore the proposed approach sheds new light on policies such as inflation targeting and those leading to the great moderation affecting expectations finally we document evidence of state dependence in the expectations formation process

good luck or good policy an expectational theory of macro volatility switches abstract in an otherwise unique equilibrium model agents are segmented into a few informational islands according to the signal they receive about others expectations even if agents perfectly observe fundamentals rational exuberance equilibria rex can arise as they put weight on expectational signals to refine their forecasts constant gain adaptive learning can trigger jumps between the equilibrium where only fundamentals are weighted and a rex this determines regime switching in macro volatility despite unchanged monetary policy and time invariant distribution of exogenous shocks in this context a tight inflation targeting policy can lower expectational complementarity preventing rational exuberance although its effect is non monotone

the impact of food stamps on us poverty in the 1980s a marginal dominance analysis the relative effectiveness of the us food stamp program in reducing the incidence and depth of poverty is compared at a number of poverty lines across time the analysis is based upon an extension of dominance methods for ordering poverty recently developed statistical inference procedures and a merged data set that permnits an unusually comprehensive measure of income the comparative effectiveness of the food stamp program in reducing headcount poverty over time is contingent on the poverty line selected however the reduction in poverty gaps is greater in 1990 than in 1982 regardless of the poverty line chosen the sensitivity of the results to the income concept equivalence scale and time period used for measuring income are also considered

multilateral trade liberalisation foreign direct investment and the volume of world trade a cournot duopoly model is used to explain the paradox that multilateral trade liberalisation has resulted in increases in both the volume of world trade and the amount of foreign direct investment fdi

preferential trade areas multinational enterprises and welfare the effects of preferential trade areas ptas on the investments by multinational enterprises and their implications for the welfare of members and non members are studied in a model with two types of firms national firms and multinational firms in the presence of multinational activity ptas can create new investment as well as divert investment from non members to members both affect the welfare of members positively more interestingly if the investment creation effect of a pta is sufficiently strong then the pta could be welfare enhancing for non members as well jel classification f2 l1 aires preferentielles de commerce entreprises plurinationales et bien etre on etudie les effets des aires preferentielles de commerce apc sur les investissements par les entreprises plurinationales et leurs implications pour le bien etre des pays membres et non membres a l aide d un modele ou l on retrouve deux genres d entreprises les entreprises nationales et plurinationales quand des operations plurinationales existent les apc peuvent creer de nouveaux investissements mais aussi deplacer certains investissements des pays non membres vers les pays membres ces deux effets affectent le niveau de bien etre des pays membres positivement il est interessant de noter que si l effet de creation d investissements d une apc est suffisamment puissant l apc peut entrainer une augmentation du niveau de bien etre des pays non membres

sticky information in general equilibrium this paper develops and analyzes a general equilibrium model with sticky information the only rigidity in goods labor and financial markets is that agents are inattentive sporadically updating their information sets when setting prices wages and consumption after presenting the ingredients of such a model the paper develops an algorithm to solve this class of models and uses it to study the model s dynamic properties it then estimates the parameters of the model using u s data on five key macroeconomic time series it finds that information stickiness is present in all markets and is especially pronounced for consumers and workers variance decompositions show that monetary policy and aggregate demand shocks account for most of the variance of inflation output and hours jel e30 e10

the measurement of inequality and poverty a policy maker s guide to the literature abstract mathematical measures of poverty and inequality embody values that reflect the historical political social intellectual and ethical forces prevalent at the time of their formulation so that policy makers may select measures of poverty and inequality that are consistent with their values it is important to make explicit the value judgements implicit in the measures models designed to measure poverty and inequality fall into four categories absolute poverty measures absolute income measures relative poverty measures and relative inequality measures this article examines the principal models within each category and discusses the assumptions limitations and values implicit in the models

export platform foreign direct investment theory and evidence this paper proposes a model that accounts for export platform fdi a form of fdi that is common in the data but rarely discussed in the theoretical literature unlike the previous literature this paper s theory nests all the typical modes of supply including exports horizontal and vertical fdi horizontal and vertical export platform fdi the theory yields the testable hypothesis that a decrease in either inter regional or intra regional trade costs induces firms to choose export platform fdi the empirical analysis provides descriptive statistics that point to large proportions of third country exports of us fdi and an econometric analysis whose results are in line with the model s predictions the paper suggests policy implications for nations seeking to attract fdi

sticky prices as coordination failure this paper links the coordination failure and menu cost approaches to the microeconomic foundations of keynesian macroeconomics if a firm s desired price is increasing in others prices then the gain from price adjustment after a nominal shock is greater if others adjust this strategic complementarity leads to multiple equilibria in the degree of rigidity welfare may be much higher in the equilibria with less rigidity thus nominal rigidity arises from a failure to coordinate price changes jel e12 e30 keynesian macroeconomics waned in the 1970 s because economists grew disenchanted with its weak microeconomic foundations the central difficulty was that keynesian models were based on ad hoc rigidities in nominal wages and prices the 1980 s produced two approaches to reviving keynesian theory the menu cost literature n gregory mankiw 1985 george akerlof and janet yellen 1985 seeks to provide rigorous explanations for nominal rigidities these papers argue that small frictions in price setting are enough to produce large nominal rigidities in contrast the coordination failure literature russell cooper and andrew john 1988 abandons nominal rigidities and seeks alternative foundations for keynesian models the central idea is that many economic activities such as production e g john bryant 1983 trade e g peter diamond 1982 and investment e g nobuhiro kiyotaki 1988 exhibit synergism or strategic complementarity one agent s optimal level of activity depends positively on others activity strategic complementarity can lead to multiple equilibria with high activity equilibria superior to low activity equilibria thus an economy may be stuck in an underemployment equilibrium even though a superior equilibrium exists models with nominal rigidities and models with coordination failures are often presented as competing paradigms 1 this paper shows that this view is incorrect we take a step toward unifying the foundations of keynesian economics by showing that the two sets of ideas are highly complementary nominal rigidity arises from a failure to coordinate price changes this failure has the essential features of coordination failures in previous models flexibility in one firm s price increases the incentives for other firms to make their prices flexible this strategic complementarity leads to multiple equilibria in the degree of nominal rigidity equilibria with less rigidity more active price adjustment are often pareto superior to equilibria with more rigidity these results contribute to our understanding both of coordination failure and of nominal rigidity the range of keynesian phenomena explained by coordination failures is greatly expanded previous coordination failure models contain only real variables and thus ascribe no role to monetary policy or other determinants of nominal spending our results suggest that coordination failure is at the root of inefficient nonneutralities of money theories of nominal rigidities gain new empirical and policy im

interdependence in multinational production networks the majority of multinational firms today operate a multilateral production network most existing empirical analyses have however focused on firms choice between producing at home and investing overseas and assumed that a firm s decision to invest in a foreign country is independent of its locations in third countries this paper examines the effect of existing production network on multinationals entry decision using detailed french multinational subsidiary level data the paper finds strong evidence of horizontal and vertical interdependence across multinationals foreign production locations there is however little evidence of horizontal interdependence between home country production and foreign investment when the third country effects are taken into account constituting a sharp contrast to the conventional emphasis this result is robust to the various specifications and sensitivity analyses undertaken in the paper and highlights the importance of investigating the causes and effects of foreign direct investment in the context of multinational production network

monetary policy and price responsiveness to aggregate shocks under rational inattention this paper presents a general equilibrium model that is consistent with recent empirical evidence showing that the u s price level and inflation are much more responsive to aggregate technology shocks than to monetary policy shocks the model of this paper builds on recent work by mackowiak and wiederholt 2009 who show that models of endogenous attention allocation deliver prices to be more responsive to more volatile shocks as everything else being equal firms pay relatively more attention to more volatile shocks in fact according to the u s data aggregate technology shocks are more volatile than monetary policy shocks inducing in this paper firms to pay more attention to the former than to the latter however most important this work adds to the literature by showing that the ability of the model of this paper to account for observed price dynamics crucially depends on monetary policy in particular this paper shows how interest rate feedback rules affect the incentives faced by firms in allocating attention a policy rate responding more actively to expected inflation and output fluctuations induces firms to pay relatively more attention to more volatile shocks this new mechanism of transmission of monetary policy helps rationalizing the observed behavior of prices in response to technology and monetary policy shocks and implies novel predictions about the impact of changes in taylor rules coefficients on economic fluctuations

ranking income distributions a large variety of policy questions involve choices between social states and a consequent ordering of the feasible alternatives when these social states are related to the levels of welfare experienced by individuals or households two central issues stand out in determining the relative desirability of different social outcomes one of these is the essentially positive exercise of achieving comparability between households with different characteristics such as composition or preferences operating in different environments for example facing different price structures the other concerns the normative judgments implicit in the evaluation of alternative allocations of resourcesthe emphasis placed on inequality between households and the extent to which greater inequality can be compensated by higher average living standards this paper focuses on the second of these issues and in doing so we abstract from the problem of household comparability by considering a population of n households identical in all respects except for their incomes the question of ordering social states then becomes one of ranking income distributions over a group of anonymous households or individuals borrowing the usual assumptions imposed on consumer preferences we may suppose that a social ordering of income distributions can be represented by a welfare function 2

price setting with quadratic adjustment costs experimental evidence abstract we test the price setting behavior of firms using the rotemberg 1982 model in order to explain puzzles in the new keynesian phillips curve nkpc for our tests we conducted experiments that adapt the model into an individual decision making problem we find systematic deviations in price setting according to the subjects degree of information acquisition subjects rarely make use of past information on the other hand subjects that decide to acquire relatively little information about future desired prices tend to overweight their own past set price when they set prices we study the impact of this heterogeneous price setting behavior for theoretically derived forward looking phillips curves our estimated nkpcs are in line with the empirical literature the deviations from theoretical predictions in our nkpcs are driven by the less informed subjects

ethically robust comparisons of bidimensional distributions with an ordinal attribute abstract we provide foundations for robust normative evaluation of distributions of two attributes one of which is cardinally measurable and transferable between individuals and the other is ordinal and non transferable the result that we establish takes the form of an analogue to the standard hardy littlewood polya theorem for distributions of one cardinal attribute more specifically we identify the transformations of the distributions which guarantee that social welfare increases according to utilitarian unanimity provided that the utility function is concave in the cardinal attribute and that its marginal utility with respect to the same attribute is non increasing in the ordinal attribute we establish that this unanimity ranking of the distributions is equivalent to the ordered poverty gap quasi ordering introduced by bourguignon 12 finally we show that if one distribution dominates another according to the ordered poverty gap criterion then the former can be derived from the latter by means of an appropriate and finite sequence of such transformations

the design of direct taxation and family benefits abstract the subject of this paper is the design of the personal income tax and social security benefits that vary with the size of the family it is concerned with the analytical problems of policy design that arise from constraints on the instruments which may be used from differences in social judgements about the desirability of redistribution and from differences of view about the disincentive effects of taxation the paper considers these issues in the context of the french tax benefit system and the implications of the french system being harmonised towards certain features of the british system

monetary policy for inattentive economies we offer a contribution to the analysis of optimal monetary policy we begin with a critical assessment of the existing literature arguing that most work is based on implausible models of inflation output dynamics we then suggest that this problem may be solved with some recent behavioral models which assume that price setters are slow to incorporate macroeconomic information into the prices they set a specific such model is developed and used to derive optimal policy in response to shocks to productivity and aggregate demand optimal policy is price level targeting base drift in the price level which is implicit in the inflation targeting regimes currently used in many central banks is not desirable in this model when shocks to desired markups are added optimal policy is flexible targeting of the price level that is the central bank should allow the price level to deviate from its target for a while in response to these supply shocks but it should eventually return the price level to its target path optimal policy can also be described as an elastic price standard the central bank allows the price level to deviate from its target when output is expected to deviate from its natural rate

regional tax coordination and foreign direct investment this paper analyses the effects of a regionally coordinated profit tax or location subsidy in a model with three active countries one of which is not part of the union and a globally mobile firm we show that regional coordination can lead to two types of welfare gain first for investments that would take place in the union in the absence of coordination a coordinated tax increase can transfer location rents from the firm to the union second by internalising all of the union s benefits from foreign direct investment a coordinated tax reduction can attract more welfare enhancing investment than when member states act in isolation depending on which motive dominates tax levels may thus rise or fall under regional coordination

technology shocks in the new keynesian model in the new keynesian model preference cost push and monetary shocks all compete with the real business cycle model s technology shock in driving aggregate fluctuations a version of this model estimated via maximum likelihood points to these other shocks as being more important for explaining the behavior of output inflation and interest rates in the postwar u s data these results weaken the links between the current generation of new keynesian models and the real business cycle models from which they were originally derived they also suggest that federal reserve officials have often faced difficult trade offs in conducting monetary policy

testing the significance of income distribution changes over the 1980s business cycle a cross national comparison using kernel density estimation we describe the distribution of household size adjusted real income and how it changed over the business cycle of the 1980s in the united states and the united kingdom we confirm previous studies that show income inequality increased in the two countries and the middle of the distribution was squashed down using a series of statistical tests however we find that while the mass in both tails of the distribution increased significantly in both countries over the period by far the greatest gains were in the upper tail copyright 1999 john wiley sons ltd

dollars and dreams a reduced middle class alternative explanations we decompose annual earnings into hours of work and hourly earnings and analyze male female differences in earnings inequality using canadian data our results indicate that the larger female inequality in earnings is due to a greater inequality in the

export oriented fdi in the uk it is well known that the performance of foreign firms compared to domestic companies is superior with respect to employment wages and productivity in this paper we detail the export behaviour of foreign affiliates in the united kingdom relative to indigenous firms our findings show that foreign firms are more likely to export and when they do so they are more export intensive and overall contribute disproportionately to total manufacturing exports from the uk while firm level advantages explain some of these differences in export behaviour strategic considerations dominate where these include the differential in costs productivity and market size between the uk and foreign countries that is both horizontal and vertical motives can be found for the use of the uk as an export platform by foreign firms copyright 2004 oxford university press

adaptive learning forecast based instrument rules and monetary policy abstract this paper argues that recently popular forecast based instrument rules for monetary policy may fail to stabilize economic fluctuations in a new keynesian model of output gap and inflation determination in which private agents face multi period decision problems but have non rational expectations and learn over time if the monetary authority adopts a forecast based instrument rule and responds to observed private forecasts then this class of policies frequently induce divergent learning dynamics a central bank that correctly understands private behavior can mitigate such instability by responding to the determinants of private forecasts this suggests gathering information on the determinants of expectations to be useful

endogenous r d and foreign direct investment in international oligopolies abstract this paper examines the impact of the firms mode of foreign expansion on the incentive to innovate as well as the effects of r d activities and technological spillovers on the firms international strategy we consider a two country imperfect competition model where the firms face three different type of decisions how to expand abroad how much to spend on r d and how much to sell in each market market structure is endogenously determined as the equilibrium solution of a three stage game it is shown that the firm that invests more in research is the one which is a mne while the rival is an exporter the results indicate that there is a positive relationship between multinational expansion and r d investment and that in turn investment in research increases the likelihood of multinational expansion the value of the spillover parameter can also be an important determinant of firms international strategy

economies of scale and market structure in international grain trade a large body of literature has examined international grain trade in imperfectly competitive models the article develops a two stage duopoly model that considers a private trader and a state trading enterprise ste competing on a foreign market the key difference between the private trader and the ste is their international organization while the ste makes use of external agents to export the private firm may choose to internalize international transactions the game is solved for different modes of competition and under both assumptions of homogeneous and differentiated products in order to assess how these assumptions affect the outcome of the game the results of the game are examined by using numerical examples the analysis shows that external shocks on export markets may result in a change of market structure and consequently of market shares these effects depend on the initial market structure furthermore the degree of product differentiation and the assumed mode of competition significantly affect the relative values of transaction and fixed costs at which the market structure changes

optimal monetary policy with imperfect common knowledge we study optimal nominal demand policy in a flexible price economy with monopolistic competition where firms have imperfect common knowledge about the shocks hitting the economy information imperfections emerge endogenously because firms are assumed to have finite shannon capacity to process information we then ask how policy that minimizes a quadratic objective in output and prices depends on firms processing capacity when price setting decisions of firms are strategic complements we find that policy should nominally accommodate white noise mark up shocks for a large range of capacity values this fi nding is robust to the policy maker observing shocks imperfectly or being uncertain about firms processing capacity when mark up shocks are persistent accommodation may even have to increase in the medium term but has to decrease in the long run thereby generating a hump shaped price response and a slow reduction in output instead when prices are strategic substitutes policy tends to react with nominal demand contractions to mark up shocks in addition there might exist discontinuities between common knowledge equilibria and equilibria with small amounts of imperfect common knowledge

the impact of eu preferential trade agreements on foreign direct investment although north south preferential trade agreements ptas are expected to affect foreign direct investment fdi there is not much evidence to date on the impact of eu ptas on the pattern of fdi the aim of this study is to assess the impact of eu ptas on the outward stocks of fdi of the eu we estimate a model based on the knowledge capital theory of the multinational enterprise over the period 1995 2005 using a sample of 173 host countries explanatory variables include measures of the level of bilateral protection and a dummy to capture the impact of deep integration provisions of ptas a dynamic panel model with fixed effects is used in order to take into account the dynamic behaviour of fdi and the heterogeneity bias results show that eu fdi is both horizontal and vertical the level of eu protection affects fdi negatively while the impact of the tariffs applied by host countries varies across groups of partner countries deep integration provisions affect eu fdi positively

relative undernutrition in puerto rico under alternative food assistance programmes in the early 1980s puerto rico experienced a conversion from the food stamp program fsp to the nutrition assistance program nap and a severe recession to compare relative undernutrition in puerto rico in 1977 and 1984 stochastic dominance methods and statistical inference procedures are applied to nutrient distributions to separate the effect of the recession from the effect of converting food coupons to cash benefits a multiple regression model of nutrient consumption is also estimated in the dominance comparisons every improvement in nutrition status between 1977 and 1984 is statistically significant at the lowest quintile while no case of worsening undernutrition is significant at the lowest quintile the multiple regression model provides some evidence that the conversion from food coupons to cash might have reduced nutrition status in the lowest quintile but a larger proportion of food assistance was allocated to low income households under the nap than under the fsp no evidence of signi

does economic integration cause foreign direct investment the authors analyze the effect of economic integration on oligopolists international trade and foreign direct investment activities using a three country three firm model increased country size leads to dispersed foreign direct investment while improved market accessibility leads to export platform foreign direct investment increased intraregional market accessibility prompts outside firms to invest in the regional bloc reducing product prices profits of intrabloc firms and increasing total surplus integrating economies are more likely to gain from improving intraregional market accessibility than from tougher external trade policy and may wish to offer investment incentives to encourage foreign direct investment by outside firms copyright 1996 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

multidimensional welfare distributions empirical application to household panel data from vietnam this article explores the empirical application of theoretical multidimensional welfare distribution analysis techniques to real household welfare distributions the article operationalizes recent conceptual developments in multidimensional distribution theory and assesses their usefulness for the measurement of multidimensional household inequality the results strongly highlight the importance of bringing nonmonetary aspects of household welfare into the forefront of inequality analysis agreement over the various approaches to the measurement of multidimensional inequality entails however nontrivial decisions that may limit the practical usefulness of these measures we suggest that the use of multidimensional inequality ranges and the application of restrictive dominance criteria to multidimensional welfare distributions may open significant scope for further developments in the empirical analysis of multidimensional inequality

an optimizing is lm specification for monetary policy and business cycle analysis we ask whether relations of the is lm type can sensibly be used for the aggregate demand portion of a dynamic optimizing general equilibrium model intended for analysis of issues regarding monetary policy and cyclical fluctuations the main result is that only one change the addition of a term regarding expected future income is needed to make the is function match a fully optimizing model whereas no changes are needed for the lm function this modification leads to a dynamic forward looking model of aggregate demand that is tractable and usable with a wide variety of aggregate supply specifications theoretical applications concerning price level determinacy and gradual price adjustment are included

statistical inference for the measurement of the incidence of taxes and transfers we establish the asymptotic sampling distribution of general functions of quantile based estimators computed from samples that are not necessarily independent the results provide the statistical framework within which to assess the progressivity of taxes and benefits their horizontal inequity and the change in the inequality of income which they cause by the same token these findings characterise the sampling distribution of a number of popular indices of progressivity horizontal inequity and redistribution they can also be used to assess welfare and inequality changes using panel data and to assess poverty when it depends on estimated population quantiles we illustrate these results using micro data on the incidence of taxes and benefits in canada

calculation and decomposition of income inequality in low and middle income countries a survey data analysis this article estimates income inequality in a sample of four low and middle income lmi countries namely albania nepal tajikistan and tanzania using the household survey data nepal living st

sharing the cost of a public good an incentive constrained axiomatic approach we study the problem of provision and cost sharing of a public good in large economies where exclusion complete or partial is possible we search for incentive constrained efficient allocation rules that display fairness properties population monotonicity says that an increase in population should not be detrimental to anyone demand monotonicity states that an increase in the demand for the public good in the sense of a first order stochastic dominance shift in the distribution of preferences should not be detrimental to any agent whose preferences remain unchanged under suitable domain restrictions we give an explicit characterization of all incentive constrained efficient allocation rules we then show that there exists a unique incentive constrained efficient and demand monotonic allocation rule the so called serial rule in the binary public good case the serial rule is also the only incentive constrained efficient and population monotonic rule

macroeconomic expectations of households and professional forecasters economists have long emphasized the importance of expectations in determining macroeconomic outcomes yet there has been almost no recent effort to model actual empirical expectations data instead m acroeconomists usually simply assume that expectations are rational this paper shows that while empirical household expectations are not rational in the usual sense expectational dynamics are well captured by a model in which households views derive from news reports of the views of professional forecasters which in turn may be rational the model s estimates imply that people only occasionally pay attention to news reports this inattention generates stickyness in aggregate expectations with important macroeconomic consequences

monetary policy endogenous inattention and the volatility trade off this paper addresses the output price volatility puzzle by studying the interaction of optimal monetary policy and agents beliefs we assume that agents choose their information acquisition rate by minimizing a loss function that depends on expected forecast errors and information costs endogenous inattention is a nash equilibrium in the information processing rate although a decline of policy activism directly increases output volatility it indirectly anchors expectations which decreases output volatility if the indirect effect dominates then the usual trade off between output and price volatility breaks down this provides a potential explanation for the great moderation that began in the 1980 s

adaptive expectations underparameterization and the lucas critique abstract a striking implication of the replacement of adaptive expectations by rational expectations was the lucas critique which showed that expectation parameters and endogenous variable dynamics depend on policy parameters we consider this issue from the vantage point of bounded rationality where for transparency we model bounded rationality by means of simple adaptive expectations we show that for a range of processes monetary policy remains subject to the lucas critique however there are also regimes in which the expectation parameter is locally invariant and the lucas critique does not apply

regional economic integration and geographic concentration of multinational firms abstract a number of theoretical studies have predicted that preferential trade agreements ptas raise outside multinationals incentive to invest in the participating countries especially in those that are integrated with larger markets and have lower production costs the hypothesis has however not been tested empirically this paper addresses the issue by estimating the impact of ptas on countries ability to attract multinationals the evidence is broadly consistent with expectations the formation of ptas leads to an increase in fdi by outside multinationals but the effect varies sharply with the size of integrated markets and countries comparative advantage countries integrated with larger markets experience a greater increase in total and export platform fdi those with a higher labor endowment also attract more fdi especially in labor intensive industries but at the expense of their labor scarce pta partners

formation of rationally heterogeneous expectations this paper models expectation formation by taking into account that agents may produce heterogeneous expectations because of informational frictions and differing levels of a capacity to process information we show that there are two general classes of steady states within this framework those where strictly dominated forecasting rules vanish and those heterogeneous states where a positive proportion of agents uses a more costly perfect foresight we demonstrate that intrinsic heterogeneity can also arise in a model where the forecasting rules are not equally costly and do not exhibit identical performance in the long run

were there regime switches in u s monetary policy working paper 2004 14 june 2004 abstract a multivariate model identifying monetary policy and allowing for simultaneity and regime switching in coefficients and variances is confronted with u s data since 1959 the best fit is with a model that allows time variation in structural disturbance variances only among models that also allow for changes in equation coefficients the best fit is for a model that allows coefficients to change only in the monetary policy rule that model allows switching among three main regimes and one rarely and briefly occurring regime the three main regimes correspond roughly to periods when most observers believe that monetary policy actually differed and the differences in policy behavior are substantively interesting though statistically ill determined the estimates imply monetary targeting was central in the early 80s but was also important sporadically in the 70s the changes in regime were essential neither to the rise in inflation in the 70s nor to its decline in the 80s jel classification e52 e47 c53 key words counterfactuals lucas critique policy rule monetary targeting simultaneity volatility model comparison i the debate over monetary policy change in an influential paper clarida gali and gertler 2000 cgg presented evidence that us monetary policy changed between the 1970 s and the 1980 s indeed that in the 70 s it was drastically worse they found that the policy rule apparently followed in the 70 s was one that when embedded in most stochastic general equilibrium models would imply non uniqueness of the equilibrium and hence vulnerability of the economy to sunspot fluctuations of arbitrarily large size their estimated policy rule for the later period on the other hand eliminated this indeterminacy these results are a possible explanation of the volatile and rising inflation of the 70 s and of its subsequent decline the cgg analysis has two important weaknesses one is that it fails to account for stochastic volatility us macroeconomic variables and particularly the federal funds rate have gone through periods of tranquility and of agitation with forecast error variances varying greatly from period to period ignoring such variation does not lead to inconsistent estimates of model parameters when the forecasting equations themselves are constant but it strongly biases toward a finding of changed parameters tests of the stability of the forecasting equations the other weakness is that the cgg analysis rests on powerful and implausible identifying assumptions they require that we accept that the response of the monetary authority to expected future inflation and output does not depend on the recent history of inflation money growth or output it is hard to understand why this should be so especially in the 70 s when monetarism was a prominent theme in policy debates congress was requiring reports from the fed of projected time paths of monetary aggregates and financial markets were reacting sensitively to weekly money supply numbers the requirement for existence and uniqueness of equilibrium in dynamic models is that the monetary policy rule show a more than unit response of interest rates to the sum of the logs of all nominal variables that appear on the right hand side of the reaction function if we force a particular measure of expected future inflation to proxy for all the nominal variables that actually appear independently in the reaction function we are bound to get distorted conclusions on the one hand because expected future inflation will be a noisy measure of the full set of nominal influences on policy we might get downward bias in our estimates from the usual errorsin variables effect on the other hand to the extent that expected future inflation like most expected future values shows less variation than current nominal variables we could find a mistaken scaling up of coefficients

preferential trade agreements and tax competition for foreign direct investment abstract this paper examines how free trade agreements and customs unions affect the location of foreign direct investment fdi and social welfare taking into account that governments may adjust taxes and external tariffs to compete for fdi conditions are identified under which a free trade agreement leads to fdi and under which this improves welfare the welfare effect is shown to depend on the relative size of efficiency gains in production and government revenue losses due to tax competition a free trade agreement may fail to induce welfare improving fdi creating a role for a customs union

what is wrong with taylor rules using judgment in monetary policy through targeting rules it is argued that inflation targeting is best understood as a commitment to a targeting rule rather than an instrument rule e ither ageneral targeting rule explicit objectives for monetary policy or a specific targeting rule a criterion for the forecasts of the target variables to be fulfilled essentially the equality of the marginal rates of transformation and substitution between the target variables targeting rules allow the use of judgment and extramodel information are more robust and easier to verify than optimal instrument rules and they can nevertheless bring the economy close to the socially optimal equilibrium

income distribution in the dynamic two factor trade model the issue of the effects of trade on personal income distribution has remained largely unexamined this paper describes an overlapping generations 2 x 2 model with a bequest motive and heterogeneous agents in order to examine the problem in this dynamic setting trade leads to both short run and long run reductions increases in inequality in labor capital abundant countries if the investment good is capital intensive if the consumption good is capital intensive the short run effects continue to hold but the long run effects are ambiguous copyright 1992 by the london school of economics and political science

state dependent pricing and the general equilibrium dynamics of money and output economists have long suggested that nominal product prices are changed infrequently because of fixed costs in such a setting optimal price adjustment should depend on the state of the economy yet while widely discussed statedependent pricing has proved difficult to incorporate into macroeconomic models this paper develops a new tractable theoretical state dependent pricing framework we use it to study how optimal pricing depends on the persistence of monetary shocks the elasticities of labor supply and goods demand and the interest sensitivity of money demand

sticky information the impact of different information updating assumptions vector auto regressions applied to u s data find that inflation and output experience persistent and hump shaped responses to unanticipated monetary shocks one monetary model that can generate these responses employs sticky information under sticky information a firm may costlessly change its nominal price every period however the firm can only occasionally update the information upon which it bases decisions we show that this result hinges critically on the assumption that each firm receives information updates randomly if on the other hand each firm updates its information at infrequent but fixed intervals a the output response is not persistent and only weakly hump shaped under one year price contracts b the inflation response suffers diminished persistence and a reduced hump shape c the inflation response remains unrealistic under longer durations

optimal sticky prices under rational inattention this paper presents a model in which price setting firms decide what to pay attention to subject to a constraint on information flow when idiosyncratic conditions are more variable or more important than aggregate conditions firms pay more attention to idiosyncratic conditions than to aggregate conditions when we calibrate the model to match the large average absolute size of price changes observed in micro data prices react fast and by large amounts to idiosyncratic shocks but only slowly and by small amounts to nominal shocks nominal shocks have strong and persistent real effects we use the model to investigate how the optimal allocation of attention and the dynamics of prices depend on the firms environment jel e 3 e5 d8

tariff jumping and joint ventures it is well known that high tariffs tend to induce foreign direct investment fdi by encouraging the investors to jump the tariff wall this paper examines the economic interaction among tariffs fdi and international joint ventures ijv we show that in the presence of a strong local competitor even if opening a fully owned subsidiary is not profitable to a foreign firm the foreign firm may still enter the host country market through ijv however ijv is not profitable for sufficiently high tariff rates hence we argue that liberal trade policies may attract foreign investments through the formation of joint ventures

implications of rational inattention abstract a constraint that actions can depend on observations only through a communication channel with finite shannon capacity is shown to be able to play a role very similar to that of a signal extraction problem or an adjustment cost in standard control problems the resulting theory looks enough like familiar dynamic rational expectations theories to suggest that it might be useful and practical while the implications for policy are different enough to be interesting

the influence of aggregation on the ordering of distributions researchers often compare distributions using some criterion or other of inequality poverty or welfare it is standard practice to base such comparative analysis on aggregated data but will the results obtained be dependent on the degree of aggregation of the data this paper argues on the basis of a simulation study that they will be since the probability of obtaining a ranking can increase rapidly with the degree of aggregation aggregation exaggerates the differences between similar distributions and overlooks crossings at the lower tail a change in research strategy is warranted aggregation should be avoided where possible copyright 1996 by the london school of economics and political science

some classes of functions that preserve the inequality and welfare orderings of income distributions abstract we identify in the paper those classes of functions that preserve the ranking of distributions according to three welfare criteria introduced recently by a f shorrocks economica 50 1983 3 17 we prove that a necessary and sufficient condition for a function to preserve the generalized lorenz ordering of distributions is that it be increasing and concave requiring welfare improvements to be compatible with more equality we obtain linear resp affine functions when emphasis is placed on relative resp absolute income differentials

tax incidence in madagascar an analysis using household data this article discusses tax incidence in madagascar and asks who pays the taxes that finance government spending its main concern is to identify the progressivity of different taxes levied in madagascar based on the consumption and income patterns found in the 1994 enquete permanente aupres des menages a nationally representative survey the results suggest that most taxes are progressive meaning that wealthy households pay proportionately more of these taxes relative to their expenditures than do poor households two notable exceptions are taxes on kerosene and export duties on vanilla both of which are regressive these results are consistent with those of a study of ghana the only other comparable research on tax incidence in africa that study found taxes on kerosene and cocoa exports to be the most regressive taxes in ghana making firm policy recommendations for tax reform would require an analysis of the economic efficiency and administrative efficacy of different taxes to complement this article s work on their equity implications nevertheless the results suggest that the movement away from trade taxes especially export duties and toward broadly based value added or income taxes would be more equitable and more economically efficient the only legitimate impediment to such reforms in madagascar is administrative that is the government s ability to collect different taxes effectively although administrative efficiency may be a problem for value added or income taxes taxes on petroleum products except kerosene are highly progressive and provide a good tax handle