toward a reconstruction of keynesian economics expectations and constrained equilibria a two period model of temporary equilibrium with rationing is presented paying particular attention to agents expectations of future constraints it is shown that with arbitrary constraint expectations many different types of current equilibrium may be consistent with the same set of current and expected future wages and prices and that constraint expectations exhibit bootstraps properties e g a higher expectation of keynesian unemployment tomorrow increases the probability that it will prevail today in addition the concept of rational constraint expectations i e perfect foresight of future constraints is introduced and shown to enhance rather than reduce the effectiveness of government policy

global labor and worksite standards a strategic ethical analysis of shareholder employee relations resolutions the purpose of this paper is to analyze from a strategic ethical perspective four selected shareholder resolutions reported by the social issues service of the investor responsibility research center regarding international labor and workplace standards particular attention will be paid to specific employee relations issues at the operating and tactical level of individual multinational firms the paper concludes with policy recommendations for proxy statements

on the inventory cycle and the instability of the competitive mechanism this paper presents a model of the business cycle with perfect foresight where the mere presence of inventories is responsible for the appearance of the cycle the basic assumption of the model is that the price system does not adjust instantaneously to its competitive value then inventory holding destabilizes the t tonnement dynamics and creates the cycle a wicksellian cumulative process generates both the booms where the real rate of return on cash is smaller than the natural rate of interest obtained by the inventory holders and the recessions where inventories are dominated by money balances

the dynamics of spillover effects during the european sovereign debt turmoil abstract in this paper we modify and extend the framework of diebold and yilmaz 2011 to quantify spillovers between sovereign credit markets and banks in the euro area spillovers are estimated recursively from a vector autoregressive model of daily changes in credit default swap cds spreads with exogenous common factors we account for interdependencies between sovereign and bank cds spreads and derive generalized impulse response functions specifically we assess the systemic effect of an unexpected shock to the creditworthiness of a sovereign or country specific bank index on other sovereigns and bank cdss between october 2009 and july 2012 channels of shock transmission from or to sovereigns and banks are summarized in a contagion index and its four components i among sovereigns ii among banks iii from sovereigns to banks and iv from banks to sovereigns we also highlight the impact of policy related events on the contagion index

detecting shift contagion in currency and bond markets abstract this paper investigates why financial market crises often increase the interdependence between assets associated with different countries two sources of increased co movement in asset returns are considered i larger common shocks operating through standard cross country linkages and ii changes in the structural transmission of shocks across countries referred to as shift contagion to examine this issue we develop a method for detecting shift contagion with three notable features first parameters corresponding to the structural transmission of shocks across countries are identified in the presence of changing volatility regimes for the shocks second the timing of changes in volatility is endogenously estimated instead of being exogenously assigned third the countries in which crises originate need not be known or even included in the analysis we apply the method to currency returns for developed countries and bond returns for emerging market countries

on the existence of sunspot equilibria in an overlapping generations model abstract the existence of sunspot equilibria is shown in a one commodity overlapping generations model without stationarity assumptions on preferences endowments or nominal taxes the essential assumption is that there is a continuum of perfect foresight equilibria the technique is also useful for constructing stationary sunspot equilibria when they exist consumption in a sunspot equilibrium is shown to lie within the range consistent with perfect foresight

rational rationing and increasing returns an example abstract the paper gives an example of an economy where it is rational for a monopolist to control a competitive agent by setting both prices and quantities supplied there are increasing returns in production and the competitive agent has a discontinuous offer curve the monopolist reaches points in the discontinuity by rationing

modelling long run comovements in equity markets a flexible approach abstract international equity markets linkages are characterized by nonlinear dependence and asymmetries we investigate shifts in long run comovements in stock markets by means of an interrupted markov switching cointegration specification this flexible approach allow us to study to what extent documented changes in global integration are permanent or whether market linkages are subject to changes using an illustrative sample from 1980 to 2012 for usa uk and hong kong stock price indices we find evidence of interrupted cointegration across these markets between may 1997 and april 2002 which is consistent with the decoupling of stock prices from fundamentals during the dot com bubble

unobservable shocks as carriers of contagion we propose an identified structural garch model to disentangle the dynamics of financial market crises we distinguish between the hypersensitivity of a domestic market in crisis to news from foreign non crisis markets and the contagion imported to a tranquil domestic market from foreign crises the model also enables us to connect unobserved structural shocks with their source markets using variance decompositions and to compare the size and dynamics of impulses during crises periods with tranquil period impulses to illustrate we apply the method to data from the 1997 1998 asian financial crisis which consists of a complicated set of interacting crises we find significant hypersensitivity and contagion between these markets but also show that links may strengthen or weaken impulse response functions for an equally weighted equity portfolio show the increasing dominance of korean and hong kong shocks during the crises and covariance responses demonstrate multiple layers of contagion effects

contagion during the greek sovereign debt crisis abstract we examine the impact of news about greece and news about a greek bailout on bank stock prices in 2010 using data for 48 european banks we identify the twenty days with extreme returns on greek sovereign bonds and categorise the news events during those days into news about greece and news about the prospects of a greek bailout we find that except for greek banks news about greece does not lead to abnormal returns while news about a bailout does even for banks without any exposure to greece or other highly indebted euro countries this finding suggests that markets consider news about the bailout to be a signal of european governments willingness in general to use public funds to combat the financial crisis sovereign bond prices of portugal ireland and spain respond to both news about greece and news about a greek bailout

the known unknowns and unknown unknowns of european monetary union abstract the early literature on economic and monetary union emu in europe provided insights into the difficulties involved in forming a monetary union among diverse economies several of the problems that emerged in the euro crisis were correctly diagnosed beforehand the fact that they were not addressed is not attributable to the shortcomings of research but to a complacent reading of the literature by the policy community the possibility of balance of payments crises within monetary union and the degree of correlation between the default risks of banks and sovereigns were however underestimated or even ignored in the literature an analytical reassessment of emu helps define options for policy reform

measuring the subprime crisis contagion evidence of change point analysis of copula functions in this paper we first determine the existence of structural changes in the dependence between time series of equity index returns of two markets using the change point testing method the method is based on archimedean copula functions which are able to comprehensively describe dependence characteristics of random variables the degree of financial contagion between markets is subsequently estimated using the tail dependence coefficient of copula functions before and after the change point we empirically test our method by investigating financial contagion during the subprime crisis between the us s p 500 index and five asian markets namely china japan korea hong kong and taiwan our results show that a statistically significant change point exists in the dependence between the us market and all asian stock markets except taiwan the upper tail dependence is larger after the time of change implying the existence of contagion during the banking crisis between the us and the asian economies the degree of financial contagion is also estimated and found to be consistent with market events and media reports during that period

on the local uniqueness of the fixed price equilibria a number of recent works have addressed the problem of describing the allocation of resources in an economy where prices are fixed at a value that may not achieve equilibrium of supply and demand in the classical sense it seems that by and large through the works of benassy 1975 dreze 1975 malinvaud younes 1977 and younes 1975 agreement has been reached as to the properties that an allocation should possess when transactions take place at given arbitrary fixed prices the purpose of this paper is to present a result in comparative statics which applies in this approach in the framework of an exchange economy a necessary and sufficient condition for the local uniqueness of the fixed price allocation in a neighbourhood of a competitive equilibrium is established under this condition in a neighbourhood of the competitive allocation the fixed price equilibrium is locally a continuous function of the price system a prerequisite for most studies in comparative statics this condition can be related to the stability of the quantity adjustment process associated with fixed price equilibria in a neighbourhood of the competitive equilibrium as is suggested by samuelson s principle of correspondence stability implies local uniqueness while the converse is not true finally it is shown that the fixed price equilibria are both locally unique and stable when the commodities are substitutes for the rationed consumers the paper is organized as follows section 2 presents the model and results the main proofs are gathered in section 3 while an appendix gives the properties of the derivatives of the consumer s demands the mathematical tools involved are first a generalization of the inverse function theorem for lipschitzian functions due to clarke 1976 and second the identity of sylvester for determinants gantmacher 1966 pp 32 33

credit constraints and the international propagation of us financial shocks abstract this paper investigates whether credit constraints in the us economy amplify the international propagation of us financial shocks we model the dynamics of the us economy jointly with global macroeconomic and financial variables using a threshold vector autoregression this model captures regime specific dynamics conditional on the severity of credit constraints in the us economy we identify three main episodes of tight credit in us financial history over the past thirty years these occur in the late 1980s in the early 2000s and during the 2007 09 financial crisis we find that us financial shocks are associated with a significant contraction in global economic activity in times of tight credit by contrast there is little impact of us financial shocks on the global economy in normal times this asymmetry highlights an international dimension of the us financial accelerator mechanism

monopolistic quantity rationing in this paper we address the question of whether a price setting monopolist can improve his welfare by imposing quantity constraints on buyers we show first that if all buyers are identical quantity rations are not useful for the monopolist we then show by means of an example that if buyers are diverse quantity rations may be desirable it is shown that if there are only two commodities the only constraint that may be useful to the monopolist is a zero constraint on one of the two commodities an example shows that this property does not hold for more than two commodities

ethics on the web applying moral decision making to the new media this paper examines the advent of the web as a critical media tool in the promotion and sale of goods to consumers and the ethical questions it raises that are issues of public policy we examine four traditional ethical rationales that guide organizational decision making utilitarianism distributive justice moral rights of man and relativism further characterized as ends based equity based rules based and comparison based rationales and we apply them to four moral dilemmas attributed to the proliferation of dot com companies as they relate to consumer welfare we find that ethical rationale in the new media is largely non existent and where it exists it is primarily reactive and driven by utilitarian or relativistic reasoning we attribute this condition to the newness of the industry and to its economic context representing as it does many characteristics embodied in the concept of the perfect market we offer some remedies to improve ethical conduct by e business

institutional ownership of stock and dimensions of corporate social performance an empirical examination collectively institutions own an increasing proportion of outstanding corporate equities as an emergent force in shaping corporate america the linkages between institutional ownership and corporate social performance csp require empirical examination not only do corporate policy makers need to know those areas where social performance may lure or inhibit capital infusions lawmakers also need a better understanding of the social forces guiding corporate policy as anticipated this study found a positive relationship between the amount of institutional ownership of corporate stock and a company s social responsiveness as measured by the representation of women on its board of directors however no statistically significant relationship with social responsibility as measured by charitable giving was found the exemplar of social issues management compliance with the sullivan principles showed an unexpected negative relationship with the level of institutional ownership

econometric issues in the analysis of contagion this paper presents a canonical econometric model of contagion and investigates the conditions under which contagion can be distinguished from inter dependence in a two country market set up it is shown that for a range of fundamentals the solution is not unique and for sufficiently large values of the contagion coefficients it has interesting bifurcation properties with bimodal density functions the extension of the model to herding behaviour is also briefly discussed to identify contagion effects in the presence of inter dependencies the equations for the individual markets or countries must contain country market specific forcing variables this sheds doubt on the general validity of the correlation based tests of contagions recently proposed in the literature which do not involve any country market specific fundamentals finally we show that ignoring inter dependence can introduce an upward bias in the estimate of the contagion coefficient and using monte carlo experiments we further show that this bias could be substantial

complex business cycles and recurrent unemployment in a non walrasian macroeconomic model abstract in a dynamic non t tonnement macroeconomic model trades take place in each period even when prices are not walrasian prices are adjusted between trading periods according to the intensity of disequilibrium a reliable measure of which is obtained by means of stochastic rationing the degree of downward nominal wage stickiness as well as government policy parameters are decisive for the dynamics that emerge in particular it is possible for the economy to converge to quasi stationary states involving permanent unemployment and decreasing nominal wages or to produce complex business cycles with structural features recurrent over time but varying and unpredictable shape and size

shareholder value stakeholder management and social issues what s the bottom line we test the relationship between shareholder value stakeholder management and social issue participation building better relations with primary stakeholders like employees customers suppliers and communities could lead to increased shareholder wealth by helping firms develop intangible valuable assets which can be sources of competitive advantage on the other hand using corporate resources for social issues not related to primary stakeholders may not create value for shareholders we test these propositions with data from s p 500 firms and find evidence that stakeholder management leads to improved shareholder value while social issue participation is negatively associated with shareholder value copyright 2001 john wiley sons ltd

a markov switching analysis of contagion in the ems abstract this paper applies the multivariate version of the forbes and rigobon 2002 contagion test as proposed by dungey et al 2005a to detect contagion effects in the exchange rate mechanism erm of the european monetary system ems crisis and non crisis observations are determined endogenously via a markov switching vector autoregression msvar we show that the msvar is suitable for this purpose as it does particularly well in identifying the 11 realignments of the erm we examine whether denmark s rejection of the maastricht treaty and italy s competitiveness problems affected other ems participants and find evidence for contagion

unravelling financial market linkages during crises an empirical model of multiple asset classes across countries is formulated in a latent factor framework a special feature of the model is that financial market linkages during periods of financial crises including spillover and contagion effects are formally specified the model also captures a range of common factors including global shocks country and market shocks and idiosyncratic shocks the framework is applied to modelling linkages between currency and equity markets during the east asian financial crisis of 1997 98 the results provide strong evidence that cross market links are important spillovers have a relatively larger effect on volatility than contagion but both are statistically significant

examining non linear relationships between human resource practices and manufacturing performance one little explored question concerning innovative human resources practices is how the intensity of their implementation affects their impact on establishment performance is the relationship linear or more complex this analysis using u s census bureau data for 1997 from a sample of 1 212 private sector manufacturing establishments investigates the possibility of non linearities in the relationship between establishment performance and six human resource practices the author finds departures from linearity that are both statistically significant and substantively meaningful for four of the six practices he concludes that linear estimations of these relationships could mislead theorists and result in faulty recommendations to practitioners

when borch s theorem does not apply some key implications of market incompleteness with policy relevance today markets are incomplete when the assets available to the agents do not span the space of future contingencies efficiency is then assessed by the weak criterion of constrained efficiency efficiency relative to the set of allocations compatible with the asset structure that criterion requires firms to optimise relative to shadow prices reflecting shareholders preferences yet even when firms do so competitive equilibria on the markets for assets and commodities fail generically to be constrained efficient section 3 pareto superior allocations can be implemented through price wage rigidities and quantity constraints section 4 but nominal rigidities are conducive to multiple equilibria implying endogenous macroeconomic uncertainties that compound the primitive exogenous uncertainties section 5 various policy implications can be drawn which are of some relevance to the current crisis

measuring sovereign risk spillovers and assessing the role of transmission channels a spatial econometrics approach abstract we contribute to the literature on international risk spillovers by developing a unified framework based on spatial econometrics that enables us to address the following questions i what are the effective transmission channels real linkages and informational channels of international risk spillovers across countries and or regions ii what are the most dominant ones and iii which countries are most at risk for their environment and which are suffering the most from international exposure our analysis based on 41 advanced and emerging economies from 2008q1 to 2012q4 shows that among the considered channels for explaining international spillovers of sovereign bond spreads the informational channel is of utmost importance our results challenge previous findings from the literature in which the empirical strategy did not accommodate altogether important features of country spillovers such as the co existence of multiple transmission channels in the presence of contemporaneous and time lagged interactions ultimately our stress testing analysis reveals important insights on countries prone either to international spillovers international exposure or both at the regional and the worldwide level

keynesian unemployment as a nash equilibrium with endogenous wage price setting an example abstract a simple 3 good 1 consumer 1 firm model of fixed price quantity constrained equilibrium is developed a game is then defined on the set of globally unique equilibria the consumer sets the money wage the firm sets the money price of output money is numeraire nash solutions of the game exist and may involve keynesian unemployment but never involve classical unemployment or repressed inflation

a disequilibrium rational expectations model with walrasian prices and involuntary unemployment a fixprice non walrasian temporary equilibrium which co exists with the walrasian equilibrium at walrasian temporary equilibrium prices has been called unsatisfactory by hahn if consumers live and work for two periods expectations of future unemployment easily in particular with normal goods generate unsatisfactory keynesian unemployment equilibria if these expectations reflect serial correlation in unemployment assuming that the choice of temporary equilibrium walrasian or keynesian is governed by an extraneous serially correlated random variable sunspots a long run equilibrium of an overlapping generations model is presented which has persistent walrasian prices rational expectations and intermittent phases of keynesian unemployment and walrasian full employment

transmission of government default risk in the eurozone abstract this paper analyzes the reasons behind the rising ten year government bond spreads in the eurozone during the recent euro debt crisis we develop a structural vector autoregressive model that allows us to test whether the upsurges in the spreads reflect breaks in the instantaneous shock propagation mechanisms between the spreads contagion changing dynamical effects or changing country specific risk factors especially a new approach to test the stability of the instantaneous shock propagation mechanisms is introduced our results show that although contagion appears as the single most important reason for the increasing spreads there are notable differences between the countries for example and ireland spain and italy see statistically significant increases in their country specific risk factors

exploring the curvature of the relationship between hrm csr and corporate financial performance this article contributes to the general literature on the relationship between corporate social performance and corporate financial performance as well as to the emerging hrm csr literature by exploring the curvature of the relationship between hrm csp and cfp we advance conceptual arguments in favor of an inverted u shaped relationship our results demonstrate a significant quadratic relationship between hrm csp and cfp we provide evidence that this relationship is not linear or s shaped but rather inverted u shaped

on the measurement of the international propagation of shocks is the transmission stable abstract the empirical literature on contagion focuses mainly on two questions 1 what are the channels through which shocks are transmitted across countries trade macro similarities financial weaknesses or investor behavior 2 is there a shift in the transmission of shocks during crises are crises spread with higher intensity if so why this paper concentrates on the econometric problems that arise in dealing with the second question the data where most of these issues are raised are plagued with problems of simultaneous equations omitted variables and heteroskedasticity the standard methodologies used in the literature are inappropriate if all three are present this paper applies a new procedure that allows one to test for parameter stability taking into account all three predicaments the paper tests for the stability of the transmission mechanisms among 36 stock markets during the last three major international financial crises mexico 1994 asia 1997 and russia 1998

contagion as a domino effect in global stock markets this paper shows that stock market contagion occurs as a domino effect where confined local crashes evolve into more widespread crashes using a novel framework based on ordered logit regressions we model the occurrence of local regional and global crashes as a function of their past occurrences and financial variables we find significant evidence that global crashes do not occur abruptly but are preceded by local and regional crashes besides this form of contagion interdependence shows up by the effect of interest rates bond returns and stock market volatility on crash probabilities when it comes to forecasting global crashes our model outperforms a binomial model for global crashes only

spread the news the impact of news on the european sovereign bond markets during the crisis we investigate how news affected domestic interest spreads vis a vis germany and how it propagated to other countries during the recent crisis period thereby distinguishing between the so called giips countries and other european countries we make original use of the eurointelligence newsflash to construct news variables based on the amount of news that is released on a country on a given date we find that more news on average raises the domestic interest spread of giips countries since september 2009 in addition we find that it leads to an increase in the interest spreads of other giips countries the magnitude of this effect is related to cross border bank holdings a split of news into bad and good news shows that the upward pressure on domestic and foreign interest spreads is driven by bad news we also find spillovers of bad news from giips countries onto non giips countries however the magnitude of these spillovers is substantially smaller than that to other giips countries

a study of the link between a corporation s financial performance and its commitment to ethics a number of studies have tested the relationship between a corporation s social and ethical performance and its financial performance in contrast this is the first study to demonstrate a link between overall financial performance and an emphasis on ethics as an aspect of corporate governance it identifies the 26 8 percent of the 500 largest u s public corporations that in their annual report to shareholders commit to ethical behavior toward their stakeholders or emphasize compliance with their code of conduct the financial performance of these corporations ranks higher than that of those who do not at a significance level of p 0 005 using the 1997 business week ranking which averages eight publicly reported measures of historical financial performance these findings should motivate more corporations to utilize the principles of social and ethical accounting auditing and reporting seaar

corporate social and financial performance an investigation in the u k supermarket industry the comparison of corporate social performance with corporate financial performance has been a popular field of study over the past 25 years the results while broadly conclusive of a positive relationship are not entirely consistent in addition most of the previous studies have concentrated on large scale cross industry studies and often with a single variable for corporate social performance in order to produce statistically significant results this weakens the richness of understanding that might be obtained from a single industry study with multiple social variables which would also allow investigation of inter relationships between individual and sub sets of social performance measures and between individual and sub sets of social performance and financial performance measures there have also been criticisms that the results lack a rigorous theoretical basis and the paper demonstrates clearly how stakeholder theory must form the basis for this area of research following a review of the literature this paper presents the initial findings from a study of the u k supermarket industry which suggest that contemporaneous social and financial performance are negatively related while prior period financial performance is positively related with subsequent social performance positive relationships between both age and size of the company with social performance are also found

effective demand in a sequence of markets a consumer s effective demand is defined in a model where prices are fixed at nonclearing levels where markets are visited sequentially and where there is stochastic rationing this concept of effective demand is compared to that proposed by lower grossman and benassy and that proposed by dreze the influence of transaction costs on effective demand and the choice of an optimal order of visits to the markets are also dealt with

sovereign default exit and contagion in a monetary union abstract the european sovereign debt crisis is characterized by the simultaneous surge in borrowing costs in the gips countries after 2008 we present a theory which can account for the behavior of sovereign bond spreads in southern europe between 1998 and 2012 our key theoretical argument is related to the bail out guarantee provided by a monetary union which endogenously varies with the number of member countries in sovereign debt trouble we incorporate this theoretical foundation in an otherwise standard small open economy dsge model and explain i the convergence of interest rates on sovereign bonds following the european monetary integration in late 1990s and ii following the heightened default risk of greece the sudden surge in interest rates in countries with relatively sound economic and financial fundamentals we calibrate the model to match the behavior of the portuguese economy over the period of 1998 to 2012

the agency problems embedded in firm s equity investment we find that agency problems are embedded in firm s excess and abnormal equity investments that are mainly dictated by controlling shareholder s motives and ethical choices manifested in ownership and board structure the excess equity investment is gauged with respect to industry average the abnormal equity investment is specifically referred to the number of nominal investment companies that are fully controlled by the controlling owners while subject to little governance our empirical evidences of 345 taiwanese non financial listed firms show that firm s excess and abnormal equity investments are negatively correlated with controlling shareholder s cash flow rights while are positively correlated with the control cash flow deviation and board affiliation the results are supportive of the positive incentive hypothesis and the negative entrenchment hypothesis put forth by la porta et al 2002 journal of finance57 1147 1171 and claessen et al 2002 journal of finance57 2741 2742 the negative relation between equity investment and firm s value further supports the agency postulation that corporate excess and abnormal equity investments represent a leeway for controlling shareholder to exploit wealth of minority shareholders this study potentially contributes to the literature of business ethics by portraying an empirically testable linkage from controlling owner s ethical choices to his actions and therefore firm s value

sovereign spreads in the eurozone which prospects for a eurobond in this paper we provide new evidence on the determinants of sovereign yield spreads and market sentiment effects in the eurozone in order to evaluate the rationale for a common eurobond jointly guaranteed by eurozone member states we find that default risk is the main driver of yield spreads suggesting small gains from greater liquidity fiscal fundamentals matter in the pricing of default risk but only as they interact with other countries yield spreads that is with the global risk that the market perceives more importantly the impact of this global risk variable is not constant over time a clear sign of contagion driven by shifts in market sentiment this evidence points to a discontinuity in the disciplinary role of financial markets if markets can stay irrational longer than a country can stay solvent then the role of yield spreads on national bonds as a fiscal discipline device is considerably weakened and issuing eurobonds can be economically justified carlo favero and alessandro missale

modes of theorizing in strategic human resource management tests of universalistic contingency and configurational performance predictions the field of strategic human resource management shrm has been criticized for lacking a solid theoretical foundation this article documents that contrary to this criticism the shrm literature

detecting contagion in a multivariate time series system an application to sovereign bond markets in europe this paper proposes an original three part sequential testing procedure stp with which to test for contagion using a multivariate model first conditional on breaks in the conditional mean the procedure identifies distinct structural breaks in the volatility of a given set of countries a further structural break test applied to the correlation matrix identifies and then dates the potential contagion mechanisms as a third element the stp tests for the distinctiveness of the break dates previously found as a result of using multi dimensional data the stp has high testing power and is able to locate the dates of contagion more precisely the application to european long term interest rates shows that immediate contagion from greece does not take place but the dynamic spillovers are shown to increase after controlling for breaks in the different model parameters for other countries we find evidence of both contagion and flight to quality mechanisms

dynamic correlation analysis of financial contagion evidence from asian markets we apply a dynamic conditional correlation model to nine asian daily stock return data series from 1990 to 2003 the empirical evidence confirms a contagion effect by analyzing the correlation coefficient series we identify two phases of the asian crisis the first shows an increase in correlation contagion the second shows a continued high correlation herding statistical analysis of the correlation coefficients also finds a shift in variance during the crisis period casting doubt on the benefit of international portfolio diversification evidence shows that international sovereign credit rating agencies play a significant role in shaping the structure of dynamic correlations in the asian markets

on endogenous competitive business cycles the belief that the long run equilibrium of a competitive monetary economy that does not experience any exogeneous shocks whether originating from the external environment or from policy should be modelled as a state that is stationary or perhaps growing at a constant rate seems to be deeply rooted in the mind of some economists

to be different or to be the same it s a question and theory of strategic balance this paper addresses the performance consequences of firm level strategic similarity past research observed that firms face pressures to be different and to be the same by differentiating firms reduce competition by conforming firms demonstrate their legitimacy both reduced competition and legitimacy improve performance this paper begins building a theory of strategic balance by synthesizing the differentiation and conformity perspectives the theory directs attention to intermediate levels of strategic similarity where firms balance the pressures of competition and legitimation empirical support for the theory is found in a longitudinal study of commercial banks several suggestions for developing a theory of strategic balance conclude the paper the theory s major implication is that firms should be as different as legitimately possible copyright 1999 john wiley sons ltd

is the international propagation of financial shocks non linear evidence from the erm abstract this paper tests for the presence of non linearities in the propagation of devaluation expectations among the countries that were members of the exchange rate mechanism of the ems we show that whenever it is possible to estimate a model for financial interdependence a full information technique to detect such non linearities is more efficient than the limited information estimator proposed in a similar context by rigobon 2000 this happens in particular when the periods of market turbulence are relatively short our evidence suggests that non linearities in the propagation of devaluation expectations were a general phenomenon in the erm normally the non linearity amounts to a stronger effect in the same direction but sometimes as in the dutch case it implies a significant effect in the opposite direction evidence of flight to quality

the phillips curve as a long run phenomenon in a macroeconomic model with complex dynamics abstract in this paper we derive a phillips curve as the image of a chaotic attractor of the state variables of a non linear dynamical system describing the evolution of an economy this has two important consequences the phillips curve in our model is a true long run phenomenon but to exploit the apparent unemployment inflation trade off may require unrealistically complex policy measures the model is based on an overlapping generations non t tonnement approach involving temporary equilibria with stochastic rationing in each period and price adjustment between successive periods in this way we are able to obtain complex sequences of consistent allocations allowing for recurrent unemployment and inflation

a primer on financial contagion abstract this paper presents a theoretical framework to highlight possible channels for the international transmission of financial shocks we first review the different definitions and measures of contagion adopted by the literature we then use a simple multi country asset pricing model to classify the main elements of the current debate on contagion and provide a stylized account of how a crisis in one country can spread to the world economy in particular the model shows how crises can be transmitted across countries without assuming ad hoc portfolio management rules or market imperfections finally tracking our classification we survey the results of the empirical literature on contagion

complex dynamics in a simple macro disequilibrium model abstract this study analyzes disequilibrium dynamics in a simple macro economic model constructed with micro foundation in which the behavior of individual economic agents concerning consumption labor supply employment output supply and the formation of expectation can be described by very simple and conventional monotonic functions it is demonstrated that despite that simplicity complex nonlinear dynamics may appear through the interaction of those individual behavior in different markets

on macroeconomic equilibrium with stochastic rationing the purpose of this paper is to apply the ideas of stochastic rationing mechanisms to a simple disequilibrium macroeconomic model it has been shown that effective demands with stochastic rationing as opposed to those derived from deterministic constraints the clower benassy or dreze effective demand are consistent with the maximization of expected utility and are also capable of producing unsatisfied demand and supply in a quantity constrained equilibrium the well known regime classification of quantity constrained equilibria i e keynesian unemployment classical unemployment repressed inflation and underconsumption is shown to be relevant in a macroeconomic framework with stochastic rationing comparative statics of quantity constrained equilibria are worked out for different regimes

intangible resources tobin s q and sustainability of performance differences this paper tests empirically the hypothesis that the greater the intangibility of a firm s resources the greater the sustainability of its competitive advantage resource intangibility is measured by 1 tobin s q and 2 the predicted value from a hedonic regression of q on several accounting measures of intangibles sustainability is measured by the persistence of firm specific profits using a dynamic panel data regression model i find that intangibles play an effective role in sustaining a firm s competitive advantage as predicted by the resource based view of the firm however the results suggest that intangibles can also lock firms into persistent disadvantages

the ethical context of entrepreneurship proposing and testing a developmental framework the aim of this study is to increase our understanding of the ethical climate of entrepreneurial firms as they grow and develop a developmental framework is introduced to describe the formal and informal ethical structures that emerge in entrepreneurial firms over time factors influencing where firms are within the developmental framework are posited including the entrepreneur s psychological profile lifecycle stage of the business and descriptive characteristics of the venture it is also proposed that the implementation of ethical structures will impact perceptions of the clarity and adequacy of the ethical standards of the firm and the firm s preparedness to deal with ethical challenges as they arise results are reported of a cross sectional survey of small firms at different stages of development the findings indicate the existence of four distinct clusters of firms based on their formal and informal ethical structures superlatives core proponents pain and gain and deficients evidence is also provided of statistically significant relationships between the proposed antecedent and outcome variables implications are drawn from the results and priorities are established for future research

the eurozone crisis how banks and sovereigns came to be joined at the hip the eurozone sovereign and banking crisis evolved in three phases following the onset of the subprime tremors in july 2007 the risk premia spreads on bonds issued by eurozone sovereigns rose from historically low levels but they rose largely in tandem across the eurozone membership along with global banking stresses the rescue of the us investment bank bear stearns in march 2008 oddly enough marked the start of a distinctively european banking crisis accompanied by increased differentiation of countries within the eurozone with the greater expectation of public support for distressed banks the spreads that a sovereign paid tended to rise following evidence of stress in its domestic financial sector this was especially so in countries with lower growth prospects and higher debt burdens but there was as yet no feedback from banks to sovereigns finally as the limits of fiscal support for domestic banks became clearer and coinciding with the nationalization of anglo irish in january 2009 but gathering steam with evidence of the greek sovereign s distress in may 2010 sovereign weaknesses also came to be quickly transmitted to a more pessimistic assessment of the financial sector s prospects creating the potential of mutual destabilization ashoka mody and damiano sandri

monetary policy and the exchange rate during the asian crisis identification through heteroscedasticity abstract this paper examines whether a monetary policy tightening i e an increase in the domestic interest rate was successful in defending the exchange rate from speculative pressures during the asian financial crisis we estimate a bivariate vecm for four asian countries and improve upon existing studies in two important ways first by using a long data span we are able to compare the effects of an interest rate rise on the nominal exchange rate during tranquil and turbulent periods second we take into account the endogeneity of interest rates and identify the system by exploiting the heteroscedasticity properties of the relevant time series following rigobon identification through heteroscedasticity review of economics and statistics in press we find that while tight monetary policy helped to defend the exchange rate during tranquil periods it had the opposite effect during the asian crisis

imperfect competition and fixprice equilibria when goods are gross substitutes it is possible in principle that the price quantity pair generated by a model of imperfect competition may satisfy the conditions voluntary trading and absence of frictions for a fixprice equilibrium it is shown that imperfect competitors will typically satisfy voluntary trading provided that appropriate gross substitute assumptions are satisfied hence such assumptions are seen to ensure that the solutions of some well known imperfectly competitive general equilibrium models are indeed fixprice equilibria thus bringing together two important traditions in theoretical microeconomics copyright 1991 by the editors of the scandinavian journal of economics

identifying monetary policy shocks via changes in volatility a central issue of monetary policy analysis is the speciflcation of monetary policy shocks in a structural vector autoregressive setting there has been some controversy about which restrictions to use for identifying the shocks because standard theories do not provide enough information to fully identify monetary policy shocks in fact to compare difierent theories it would even be desirable to have over identifying restrictions which would make statistical tests of difierent theories possible it is pointed out that some progress towards over identifying monetary policy shocks can be made by using speciflc data properties in particular it is shown that changes in the volatility of the shocks can be used for identiflcation based on monthly us data from 1965 1996 difierent theories are tested and it is found that as sociating monetary policy shocks with shocks to nonborrowed reserves leads to a particularly strong rejection of the model whereas assuming that the fed accommodates demand shocks to total reserves cannot be rejected

catastrophic walrasian equilibrium from the non walrasian viewpoint a three good macroeconomic example a walrasian equilibrium is catastrophic from the non walrasian viewpoint if some small deviation from the walrasian prices produces only non walrasian equilibrium allocations a long way from the walrasian allocation a precise account of this phenomenon is given for a class of three good single household private ownership production economies

structural vector autoregressions with nonnormal residuals in structural vector autoregressive svar modeling sometimes the identifying restrictions are insufficient for a unique specification of all shocks in this paper it is pointed out that specific distributional assumptions can help in identifying the structural shocks in particular a mixture of normal distributions is considered as a possible model that can be used in this context our model setup enables us to test restrictions which are just identifying in a standard svar framework the results are illustrated using a u s macro data set and a system of u s and european interest rates

measuring the reaction of monetary policy to the stock market movements in the stock market can have a significant impact on the macroeconomy and are therefore likely to be an important factor in the determination of monetary policy however little is known about the magnitude of the federal reserve s reaction to the stock market in part because the simultaneous response of equity prices to interest rates makes it difficult to estimate this paper uses an identification technique based on the heteroskedasticity of stock market returns to measure the reaction of monetary policy to the stock market we find a significant policy response with a 5 percent rise fall in the s p 500 index increasing the likelihood of a 25 basis point tightening easing by about a half

integrating the ethical dimension into the analytical framework for the reform of state owned enterprises in china s socialist market economy a proposal the discussions about the reform of state owned enterprises are so far dominated by economic and legal considerations while the ethical dimension of this highly complex problem is being barely addressed explicitly much less developed systematically and integrated into a broader analytical framework for companies in china this paper is a proposal to introduce this kind of ethical considerations first the main features of the reform of state owned enterprises are briefly summarized and a number of critical issues are identified second the balanced concept of the firm is presented and compared with other approaches to corporate ethics in chiefly western literature discussions on corporate social responsibility the stakeholder approach and social contract theories finally the relevance of this balanced concept of the firm for the reform of state owned enterprises is briefly discussed

some contagion some interdependence more pitfalls in tests of financial contagion this paper develops a test of contagion in financial markets based on bivariate correlation analysis which generalizes existing tests and applies it to the international effects of the hong kong stock market crisis of october 1997 contagion is defined as a structural break in the international transmission of financial shocks for plausible values of the variance of country specific shocks in hong kong our test finds evidence of contagion for 5 countries out of a sample of 17 this is in sharp contrast with the findings of recent literature according to which there is no contagion only interdependence we show that this strong result in the literature is due to arbitrary and unrealistic restrictions on the variance of country specific shocks

endogenous trading uncertainty and macroeconomic equilibrium this paper explores the analogy between equilibrium under flexible prices and equilibrium under fixed prices in a large decentralised economy characterised by trading uncertainty to price dispersion in the former there corressponds quantity dispersion in the latter specifically we show that if fixed prices are posited and proposed trades are rationed according to a stochastic rationing mechanism different disequilibrium regimes can coexist in different parts of the system such a coexistence has equilibrium properties in the sense that agents consumers and firms are indifferent between facing different stylised disequilibrium regimes the plan of the paper is as follows section i discusses the concept of stochastic rationing we employ in conjunction with fixed price equilibrium theory section ii introduces the model and indicates how it may be applied to study price dispersion in flexible price equilibrium section iii presents the main result about the coexistence of the stochastic keynesian regime and the stochastic suppressed inflation regime and discusses its implications for macroeconomic policy

ethical commitment financial performance and valuation an empirical investigation of korean companies a variety of stakeholders including investors corporate managers customers suppliers employees researchers and government policy makers have long been interested in the relationship between the financial performance of a corporation and its commitment to business ethics as a subject of research the relations between business ethics and corporate valuation has yet to be thoroughly quantified and investigated this article is an effort to amend this inadequacy by demonstrating a statistically significant association between ethical commitment and corporate valuation measures consistent with anecdotal evidence we have found a significant association between the ethical commitment of korean companies and their valuation on the korean stock market however the result reveals that the association between ethical commitment and financial performance is not significantly supported

corporate social responsibility and corporate performance evidence from a panel of us listed companies we investigate whether inclusion and permanence in the domini social index dsi affects corporate performance on a sample of around 1000 firms in a 13 year interval by controlling for size industry business cycle and time invariant firm idiosyncratic characteristics our results find partial support to the hypothesis that corporate social responsibility is a move from the shareholders wealth to a multi stakeholders welfare target on the one side permanence into the domini index di is shown to increase reduce significantly total sales per employee returns on equity but not when large and r d investing firms are excluded from the sample on the other side lower returns on equity for domini firms seem nonetheless to be accompanied by relatively lower conditional volatility and lower reaction to extreme shocks with respect to the control sample an explanation for these findings suggested by the inspection of domini criteria is that social responsibility implies on the one side decisions leadi

beyond does it pay to be green a meta analysis of moderators of the cep cfp relationship review of extant research on the corporate environmental performance cep and corporate financial performance cfp link generally demonstrates a positive relationship however some arguments and empirical results have demonstrated otherwise as a result researchers have called for a contingency approach to this research stream which moves beyond the basic question does it pay to be green and instead asks when does it pay to be green in answering this call we provide a meta analytic review of cep cfp literature in which we identify potential moderators to the cep cfp relationship including environmental performance type e g reactive vs proactive performance firm characteristics e g large vs small firms and methodological issues e g self report measures by analyzing these contingencies this study attempts to provide a basis on which to draw conclusions regarding some inconsistencies and debates in the cep cfp research some of the results of the moderator analysis suggest that small firms benefit from environmental performance as much or more than large firms us firms seem to benefit more than international counterparts and environmental performance seems to have the strongest influence on market measures of financial performance

stationary keynesian equilibria equilibria with keynesian unemployment are studied in the framework of a simple macroeconomic model assuming that they result from a non t tonnement at fixed prices and wages

the transmission mechanism in a changing world this paper aims at improving the understanding of the transmission of shocks across countries and how this transmission may have changed over time by employing a model that allows for parameter changes across regimes we show that transmission of shocks from the us to european countries may depend on the values of transition variables such as financial prices exchange rates international capital flows trade links and monetary policy instruments we also show that transmission mechanisms estimated with the proposed models have good performance in describing the 2001 downturn in some european countries as an effect of a us shock more generally the models have a good forecasting performance over short horizons

effective demand and spillovers when individuals face rationing on a particular market they will seek to amend their trade offer on this and other markets to account for the extra constraint on their behaviour empirical researchers must attempt to mimic this behaviour by specifying effective demand functions there is no consensus however about how this should be done the development of applied multi market disequilibrium modelling has given this problem an immediate practical relevance moreover aggregation and computational considerations further complicate the problem of specifying theoretically consistent yet tractable effective demands this paper explores theoretical aspects of empirical effective demand functions and in this light reviews the existing empirical literature we stress the practical nature of the problems encountered in applied work and the limited guidance that theory provides the initial systematic discussion of the problems involved in specifying empirical effective demand functions in portes 1977 has been supplemented by gourieroux laffont and monfort 1980 ito 1980 sneessens 1981 and lee 1986 our paper is partly an update of this work there are three main candidates differing according to both the measurement of excess demand on other markets and how individuals are assumed to respond to this using linear forms for the effective demands portes showed how the three candidates are observationally equivalent in that they all imply the same level of trade perhaps because of this we find a wide range of effective demand concepts used in existing empirical applications we then consider the implications for empirical effective demand functions of allowing rationing to operate at a disaggregated level these smoothing by aggregation models have been the most significant

the relationship of ethical decision making to business ethics and performance in taiwan this paper examines the relationship of ethical decision making by individuals to corporate business ethics and organizational performance of three groups i smes small and medium enterprises ii outstanding smes the key stone award winners and iii large enterprises in order to provide a reference for taiwanese entrepreneurs to practice better business ethics the survey method involved random sampling of 132 enterprises within three groups some 524 out of 1320 questionnaires were valid the survey results demonstrated that ethical decision making by individuals corporate business ethics and organizational performance are highly related in summary then high levels of organizational performance were directly attributable to high levels of applied corporate and individual ethics furthermore there is a demonstrable tendency for outstanding smes to reject ethically unsound practices such as padded expense accounts tax evasion and misleading advertising the measurement criteria used to assess organizational performance however did not include an objective evaluation of financial performance

the corporate social performance financial performance link strategic managers are consistently faced with the decision of how to allocate scarce corporate resources in an environment that is placing more and more pressures on them recent scholarship in strategic management suggests that many of these pressures come directly from sources associated with social issues in management rather than traditional arenas of strategic management using a greatly improved source of data on corporate social performance this paper reports the results of a rigorous study of the empirical linkages between financial and social performance corporate social performance csp is found to be positively associated with prior financial performance supporting the theory that slack resource availability and csp are positively related csp is also found to be positively associated with future financial performance supporting the theory that good management and csp are positively related 1997 by john wiley sons ltd