debt for nature swaps overview and discussion of key issues abstract debt for nature swaps involve the purchase of a developing country s debt at a discounted value in the secondary debt market and cancelling the debt in return for environment related action on the part of the debtor nation the present debt situation of many dcs possessing tropical forests is seen as an opportunity to trade off bad debts against habitat preservation as long as the amounts at stake are marginal relative to a country s debt burden arrangements such as debt for nature swaps may prove beneficial because the opportunity costs of the freed funds are very low once such swaps take place on a larger scale however additionality may no longer be that obvious to the debtor government perhaps the most important contribution of aggressive promotion of such swaps will be awakening of policy and decision makers to the many consequences of accelerating environmental degradation of many unique and fragile tropical habitats along with an increased awareness of the increasing opportunity cost of diminishing renewable resources such an awakening may in turn lead to a changed political climate for environmental management in general and an increased scope for international cooperation

impact of the carbon price on the integrating european electricity market we study the impact of the carbon price on the integrating electricity market in the eu our theoretical framework suggests that the price of carbon has a positive but uneven impact on electricity prices depending on the marginal production plant the carbon price may increase price differences in the short run we apply time series analysis on daily forward data from 2003 to 2011 and investigate whether we can find empirical evidence for our analytical findings our results support the hypotheses that integration in electricity prices has increased over time and that the carbon price has a positive but uneven impact on the integration of prices

time varying convergence in european electricity spot markets and their association with carbon and fuel prices abstract long run dynamics of electricity prices are expected to reflect fuel price developments since fuels generally account for a large share in the cost of generation as an integrated european market for electricity develops wholesale electricity prices should be converging as a result of market coupling and increased interconnectivity electricity mixes are also changing spurred by a drive to significantly increase the share of renewables consequently the electricity wholesale price dynamics are evolving and the fuel electricity price nexus that has been described in the literature is likely to reflect this evolution this study investigates associations between spot prices from the british french and nordpool markets with those in connected electricity markets and fuel input prices from december 2005 to october 2013 in order to assess the time varying dynamics of electricity spot price series localized autocorrelation functions are used electricity spot prices in the three markets are found to have stationary and non stationary periods when a trend in spot prices is observed it is likely to reflect the trend in fuel prices cointegration analysis is then used to assess co movement between electricity spot prices and fuel inputs to generation the results show that british electricity spot prices are associated with fuel prices and not with price developments in connected markets while the opposite is observed in the french and nordpool day ahead markets

third world debt and tropical deforestation abstract the deforestation and degradation of tropical forests are taking place at an extremely rapid pace according to the food and agriculture organization fao the estimated annual rate of tropical deforestation during the 1981 1985 period was 113 846 square kilometers or 0 6 of the 1981 total forested area the implications of the loss of these forests are staggering myers n 1989 deforestation rates in tropical forests and their climatic implications friends of the earth london tropical forests are extremely rich ecosystems which support a disproportionately large share of the world s plant and animal species forests play a crucial role in both nutrient and hydrological cycling and may provide sustainable economic benefits through managed harvesting of timber and the collection of non timber products such as fruits nuts and rubber also deforestation is a significant source of global warming through its effects on the global carbon cycle this paper focuses on the relationship between debt and deforestation examining conceptual and empirical arguments that debt is a source of deforestation pressure our study develops a behavioral model which suggests that debt can lead to myopic behavior leading to deforestation rates that may not be optimal in the long run but are necessary in the short run to meet current constraints then country by country data on debt deforestation and other variables are analyzed with regression analysis it is shown that debt is significantly correlated with deforestation under a wide variety of assumptions and specifications our results indicate that debt is an important factor in the deforestation of tropical countries there are certainly other sources of deforestation both micro and macroeconomic which may vary significantly from country to country however we focus on debt because of its dominant role in the economies of developing countries and because of the increased use of debt for nature swaps the link between debt and deforestation that is suggested in this paper implies that debt for nature swaps may have a dual effect on deforestation first the contractual agreement is designed to preserve forests as part of the swap second the reduction in debt may itself reduce the pressure to deforest although this indirect effect is small our research provides evidence that reducing debt reduces deforestation which may be an argument to offer deforesting third world countries some form of debt relief and to utilize more fully debt for nature swaps as a tool for preserving environmental quality

causal modeling and inference for electricity markets abstract how does dynamic price information flow among northern european electricity spot prices and prices of major electricity generation fuel sources we use time series models combined with new advances in causal inference to answer these questions applying our methods to weekly nordic and german electricity prices and oil gas and coal prices with german wind power and nordic water reservoir levels as exogenous variables we estimate a causal model for the price dynamics both for contemporaneous and lagged relationships in contemporaneous time nordic and german electricity prices are interlinked through gas prices in the long run electricity prices and british gas prices adjust themselves to establish the equilibrium price level since oil coal continental gas and eur usd are found to be weakly exogenous

real exchange rate volatility financial crises and exchange rate regimes this paper examines real exchange rate rer volatility in eighty countries around the world during the period 1970 to 2011 two main questions are raised are structural breaks in rer volatility related to changes in exchange rate regimes or financial crises and do these two events affect the permanent and transitory components of rer volatility to answer them we employ two complementary procedures that consist in detecting structural breaks in the rer series and decomposing volatility into its permanent and transitory components our results suggest that structural breaks in rer volatility coincidence with financial crises and certain changes in nominal exchange rate regimes moreover our findings confirm that rer volatility does increase with the global financial crises and detect that the more flexible the exchange rate regime the higher the volatility of the rer using a de facto exchange rate classification

real effective exchange rate volatility and growth a framework to measure advantages of flexibility vs costs of volatility abstract by devising a real effective exchange rate reer index where bilateral exchange rates are weighted for relative trade shares we find that the reer volatility differently from the bilateral exchange rate volatility with the dollar has significant impact on growth of per capita income after controlling for other variables traditionally considered in conditional convergence estimates we also find that this cost of volatility effect can be reconciled with the concurring negative and significant effect on growth of the adoption of a fixed exchange rate regime advantage of flexibility effect where the latter may be also interpreted as the cost of choosing pegged regimes without harmonization of rules and macroeconomic policies with main trading partners the adoption of an reer volatility measure instead of a bilateral exchange rate with the dollar has the advantage of making it possible a joint test for these two effects this is because while fixed exchange rate regimes are strongly negatively correlated and almost collinear with bilateral exchange rate volatility with the dollar the correlation is much weaker when considering our reer volatility measure

detecting spot price forecasts in futures prices futures markets are often described as having two important social functions first they facilitate the transfer of commodity price risk and second they provide forecasts of commodity prices the evidence that futures markets transfer price risk is irrefutable however there is some debate about the markets forecasting ability in particular forecasts based on the current spot price are often as good as those based on the futures price some economists cite a failure to detect superior forecast power in futures prices as evidence of market inefficiency see e g leuthold 1974 and martin and garcia 1981 there are at least two other explanations first there may be nothing for the futures market to forecast if the current spot price equals the true expectation of the future spot price the futures market cannot provide a better forecast second a superior futures market forecast may be obscured by the unexpected component of the realized spot price the true expectation of the future spot price is unobservable one must approximate this expectation with the actual future spot price

analyzing the impact of futures trading on spot price volatility evidence from the spot electricity market in france and germany abstract this paper examines the impact of the introduction of electricity futures on the spot price volatility of the french powernext and german eex electricity markets as well as the degree of their price correlation over the period 2002 2011 our working hypotheses were tested based on a bivariate vecm garch model the results indicate that the introduction of futures contracts in the french electricity market as well as the launch of the joint futures market in these countries in 2009 has decreased spot price volatility however this effect was not as explicit for the german market due to data specificities other interesting results are the german market dominates and leads the long run price relationship the impact of cooling needs on demand is greater than the impact of heating needs there is a substantial systematic pattern of electricity prices and their respective volatilities during weekdays and holidays overall results are supportive of policy making at the european commission regarding electricity market integration

price dynamics among u s electricity spot markets combining recent advances in causal flows with time series analysis relationships among 11 u s spot market electricity prices are examined results suggest that the relationships among the markets vary by time frame in contemporaneous time the western markets are separated from the eastern markets and the electricity reliability council of texas at longer time frames these separations disappear even though electricity transmission between the regions is limited it appears the relationships among markets are not only a function of physical assets such as transmissions lines among markets but by similar and dissimilar institutional arrangements among the markets

structural breaks in volatility evidence for the oecd and non oecd real exchange rates abstract this paper attempts to determine whether or not nominal exchange rate regimes affect the volatility of bilateral and effective real exchange rates to that end we examine the real exchange rate behaviour for a set of oecd and non oecd countries during the 1960 2006 period therefore covering both the bretton woods system of fixed exchange rates and the adoption of generalised floating exchange rates from 1973 we make use of an econometric methodology based on the hansen s hansen b e 1997 approximate asymptotic p values for structural change tests journal of business and economic statistics 15 1 60 67 approximation to the p values of the supreme exponential and average statistics developed by andrews andrews d 1993 test for parameter instability and structural change with unknown change point econometrica 61 4 821 856 and andrews and ploberger andrews d ploberger w 1994 optimal tests when a nuisance parameter is present only under the alternative econometrica 62 6 1383 1414 this methodology allows us to obtain a profile of p values and to delimit periods of stability and instability in the variance of real exchange rates results suggest that there is clear evidence in favour of the non neutrality of nominal exchange rate regime regarding real exchange rate volatility for developed countries but not in the case of developing or emerging countries

cointegration analysis of spot electricity prices insights on transmission efficiency in the western us abstract the us energy policy act of 1992 promoted the development of spot markets for electric power by requiring utilities to open their transmission systems to wholesale power sales in this paper we specify and estimate a vector error correction model using peak and off peak electricity spot prices during 1994 1996 covering 11 regional markets in the western united states and test these prices for evidence of market integration the results show evidence of an efficient and stable wholesale power market

dynamic granger causal networks of electricity spot prices a novel approach to market integration this study uses network theory to analyze the interactions of a representative sample of 13 european eu electricity spot prices during the period 2007 2012 we construct 7651 dynamic multivariate networks where the nodes correspond to different eu countries and the links weight the granger causality between the variations of the respective electricity prices global connectivity is then characterized by the system s density or the total quantity of causal interactivity sustained by the network system which informs about the occurrence of abnormal changes in connectivity we report a considerably large peak lasting from october 2011 to april 2012 where the graph s density over basal jump reached a magnitude of 2 4 times suggesting an improved degree of connectivity of electricity markets during this period by applying the markov regime switching model on the network density we find that this change coincides with the implementation of the european commission s third energy package at the local level the in strength values quantifying the dependence of the electricity price variation of an eu country on other countries validate the reliability of our technique by verifying historical events such as the occurrence of interconnectors commissioning and market coupling on the path to full market integration market networks should be periodically monitored our model which is able to create a time varying network describing the evolving influences between the european electricity prices is able to detect important changes in market integration and can be considered a suitable and promising approach for this task

revisiting long run relations in power markets with high res penetration abstract electricity generation from renewable energy resources res has become increasingly significant to reach eu and emissions reduction targets at the same time one of the main eu policy goals has been the creation of a common internal energy market for europe in this paper we focus on these two issues previously studied separately considering their possible interactions we first analyze the long run relationship between day ahead electricity prices and fuel prices natural gas and coal looking at two samples of years characterized by low and high res penetration then we explore the integration of eu markets we show that the electricity fuel nexus found over 2006 2008 changed dramatically over 2010 2014 for the majority of countries considered in particular the long run dependence of electricity from gas and coal prices is much lower in recent years furthermore our results confirm that the considered eu countries are becoming less integrated as res e increases our findings suggest that nationally implemented policies to support renewables are successful in increasing res penetration but they have lessened the linkage among eu markets then making integration more difficult to obtain

bargaining to preserve a unique ecosystem the role of anticipatory investments to establish stronger bargaining positions abstract a forester and a conservation organization bargain over the commercial exploitation or preservation of a forested tract of land with unique ecological characteristics the forester can improve its bargaining position by preparing a portion of the land for future timber production prior to negotiations between the two however doing so decreases the preservation value of the forest as well as the compensation the conservation group is willing to pay to preserve the forest the analysis suggests that the forester will begin preparing the land for timber production prior to negotiations only when the value of the land in timber production is significantly lower than the preservation values of the conservation group

hourly electricity prices in day ahead markets this paper focuses on the characteristics of hourly electricity prices in day ahead markets in these markets quotes for day ahead delivery of electricity are submitted simultaneously for all hours in the next day the same information set is used for quoting all hours of the day the dynamics of hourly electricity prices does not behave as a time series process instead these prices should be treated as a panel in which the prices of 24 cross sectional hours vary from day to day this paper introduces a panel model for hourly electricity prices in day ahead markets and examines their characteristics the results show that hourly electricity prices exhibit hourly specific mean reversion and that they oscillate around an hourly specific mean price level furthermore a block structured cross sectional correlation pattern between the hours is apparent

evaluating the market splitting determinants evidence from the iberian spot electricity prices abstract this paper aims to assess the main determinants on the market splitting behaviour of the iberian electricity spot markets iberia stands as an ideal case study where the high level deployment of wind power is observed together with the implementation of the market splitting arrangement between the portuguese and the spanish spot electricity markets logit and non parametric models are used to express the probability response for market splitting of day ahead spot electricity prices as a function of the explanatory variables representing the main technologies in the generation mix wind hydro thermal and nuclear power together with the available transfer capacity and electricity demand logit models give preliminary indications about market splitting behaviour and then notwithstanding the demanding computational challenge a non parametric model is applied in order to overcome the limitations of the former models results show an increase of market splitting probability with higher wind power generation or more generally with higher availability of low marginal cost electricity such as nuclear power generation the european interconnection capacity target of 10 of the peak demand of the smallest interconnected market might be insufficient to maintain electricity market integration therefore pro active coordination policies governing both interconnections and renewables deployment should be further developed

debt for nature swaps as noncooperative outcomes abstract recently nongovernmental organizations have engaged in debt for nature swaps in an effort to slow the rate of deforestation the purpose of this paper is to provide analysis of the welfare properties that arise to self enforcing swaps we show that swaps may be self enforcing in that they can arise as noncooperative equilibria at high harvest and debt levels under these conditions a credit constrained ldc is likely to reduce harvest levels similarly if the ngo views preservation projects as complements it is likely to provide debt relief we provide simulations to demonstrate the effects of different parametric values for the utility functions of the ldc and ngo on the noncooperative and cooperative equilibria

reassessing the integration of european electricity markets a fractional cointegration analysis this study extends existing literature on the assessment of electricity market integration in europe by developing and testing hypotheses on the convergence of electricity wholesale prices and adopting a time varying fractional cointegration analysis in addition the potential impacts of some special events that may affect system capacity new interconnection market coupling increase in share of intermittent generation on spot and forward markets are considered and evaluated daily spot prices from february 2000 to march 2013 of nine european electricity spot markets apx uk apx nl belpex epex fr epex de ipex nordpool omel and ote and month ahead prices in four markets french british german and dutch from november 2007 to december 2012 are investigated results show that unit root tests which are generally used in the literature to test market integration are inadequate for assessing electricity spot market convergence because spot prices are found to be fractionally integrated and mean reverting time series furthermore spot price behaviour and their association with different markets change over time reflecting changes in the eu electrical system one month ahead prices by contrast were found to have become more resilient to shocks and to follow more stable trends

modeling extreme dependence between european electricity markets electricity spot prices are characterized by sudden large movements followed a few days later by an equally large movement in the opposite direction these phenomena are called spikes upward movements and drops downward movements recent research has suggested that the dynamics of the electricity spot prices can be accurately described by hidden markov regime switching mrs models regime switch models separate the ordinary dependence and the extreme spike or drop dependence this is a crucial point since it is the extreme dependence that is of interest when computing risks we fit a large number of mrs models to six european electricity markets eex powernext apx power uk nl nord pool system sweden in order to analyze the nature of the prices the estimated regimes are then used to analyze the probability of an extreme event and the conditional probability for one market to experience an extreme event conditional that another market is experiencing the same event we find that the frequency of extreme events is positively related to the amount of renewable energy sources in the power system it can be argued that the dependence results in this paper give an indication of what future dependence for even more integrated markets with more renewable energy will be the integration of markets will lead to efficient sharing of reserves while the additional renewable energy will increase the need for reserves the results are of interest when computing financial risks e g var or expected shortfall when designing reserves but also as an indication of the degree of integration between markets

renewables diffusion and contagion effect in italian regional electricity markets assessment and policy implications abstract in the electricity market sudden price jumps occur more frequently than in other markets due to the peculiarity of electricity furthermore the structural spot characteristics of the electricity market determine high price variability all these characteristics have been accentuated by the dramatic increase of renewable energy supply in italy starting in 2010 these features suggest the possibility of contagion effects across italian regional electricity markets considering contagion such as a sudden and significant increase in cross market links arising from a shock to a specific market in this paper we investigate whether such a renewable energy increase has affected the contagion behavior in the italian electricity spot market taking into account both the difference between interdependence and contagion and the direction of the shock we find empirical evidence with significant tests that no changes have occurred in interdependence mechanism nor in contagion effects due to renewable energy sources development in italy

a multivariate garch model of international transmissions of stock returns and volatility the case of the united states and canada this study examines the short run dynamics of returns and volatility for stocks traded on the new york and toronto stock exchanges the main finding is that inferences about the magnitude and persistence of return innovations that originate in either market and that transmit to the other market depend importantly on how the cross market dynamics in volatility are modeled moreover much weaker cross market dynamics in returns and volatility prevail during later subperiods and especially for canadian stocks with shares dually listed in new york implications for international asset pricing hedging strategies and regulatory policy are discussed

forecasting day ahead electricity spot prices the impact of the exaa to other european electricity markets abstract in our paper we analyze the relationship between the day ahead electricity price of the energy exchange austria exaa and other day ahead electricity prices in europe we focus on markets which settle their prices after the exaa which enables traders to include the exaa price into their calculations for each market we employ econometric models to incorporate the exaa price and compare them with their counterparts without the price of the austrian exchange by employing a forecasting study we find that electricity price models can be improved when exaa prices are considered

the effect of a new power cable on energy prices volatility spillovers abstract in this paper we estimate volatility spillovers before and after the introduction of a new cable linking different electricity market zones using wholesale electricity prices for sardinia and two neighbouring italian market zones for the period 2005 2015 we focus on the effects of the sapei cable fully operational since march 2011 var garch estimates indicate that the sapei cable allowed for stronger volatility transmission towards sardinia a smaller zone and a net importer from its new neighbour the central southern zone albeit the effect was significant only off peak higher conditional correlations between zonal prices are also observed after the cable was introduced some implications are drawn about the interaction between market size export positions congestion and volatility transmission

a stochastic fuel switching model for electricity prices abstract this paper develops and applies a novel electricity price model we reproduce the merit order of a thermal dominated electricity system by establishing a non linear dependency of wholesale electricity prices on the prices of fuels coal and natural gas and of co 2 emission allowances the coefficients are estimated using a markov switching regression this approach might prove valuable for cross hedging positions in the fuel electricity and emission spot markets it is also of use for studying the degree to which electricity prices in different countries reflect fuel and emission cost applying the model to the electricity markets of the uk and germany we find that british electricity prices are quite well explained by short run cost factors while the german ones are less well explained

growth and exchange rate volatility a panel data analysis the aim of this article is to assess the role of real exchange rate rer volatility on long run economic growth for a set of 82 advanced and emerging economies using a panel data set ranging from 1970 to 2009 with an accurate measure for exchange rate volatility the results for the two step system generalized method of moments gmm panel growth models show that a more less volatile rer has a significant negative positive impact on economic growth the results are also robust for different model specifications

cross border integration in the european electricity market evidence from the pricing behavior of norwegian and swiss exporters abstract this paper examines the electricity market integration process in two european areas based on the pricing behavior of norwegian and swiss exporters the aim is to gain evidence for the period after the adoption of the second legislative package 2003 the pricing behavior of norwegian exporters indicates that the wholesale markets for denmark and sweden are highly integrated moreover results are fully compatible with the existence of a very competitive marketplace for electricity this clearly contrasts with the evidence provided by swiss exporters in this last case analysis revealed differences in pricing to market behavior between italy france and germany which indicates that exporters take advantage of international market segmentation and divergences between market structures this outcome provides a reasonable explanation as to why price differences between countries cannot be fully attributed to transmission costs as has been claimed in previous research we also found cross country convergence in levels of markups and in pricing to market behavior of the swiss exporters for the first part of the period that was analyzed the evidence is fully consistent with an initial impulse toward market integration originated by reforms implemented at the beginning of the last decade

european power markets a journey towards efficiency abstract the liberalization process of european electricity markets has been a work in progress since early reforms beginning in the 1990 s a key goal of these reforms was to enable increased integration and attendant efficiency within these markets in this paper we analyse three major european electricity markets apxuk nordpool and phelix before and after the 2009 72 ec directive was introduced to examine the extent to which those markets are efficient and whether they have become more integrated we find little evidence of significant long run relationships between the different markets we also find that the nordpool and phelix markets in particular exhibit volatility persistence and clustering behaviour that is inconsistent with the postulations of market efficiency the existence of continued inefficiencies across these power markets indicates that the desired goal of achieving an efficient and unified electricity market in the eu context is still a work in progress

tropical deforestation markets and market failures activities to curb deforestation yield private goods country specific public goods and global public goods markets can operate for the private goods while nations are motivated to strike bargains with one another over country specific public goods suboptimality stems from the global public goods and the positive externalities associated with preservation activities this suboptimality can be attenuated if the developed countries establish property rights to genetic material gathered from the rain forests since much of the global public benefits is derived by the developed countries they are in a weak bargaining position with respect to the shrinking rain forests

investment in manufacturing exchange rates and external exposure abstract this paper introduces a new measure of external exposure which emphasizes exposure to external markets both through export sales and imported inputs into production and uses this measure to explore the linkage between exchange rates and investment in us industry on average manufacturing sectors have evolved to being primarily import exposed by the early 1980s in low price over cost markup sectors markups are relatively unresponsive to exchange rate changes whereas sectoral investment patterns are strongly affected by contrast high markup industries absorb much of the exchange rate fluctuations in markups and pass relatively little through to real investment

measuring market integration and estimating policy impacts on the swiss electricity market abstract we investigate market integration in central western european electricity markets with a focus on switzerland we propose a structural microeconometric approach to measuring the degree of market integration taking advantage of unilateral demand and supply shocks such as the generation from volatile renewable resources the unavailability of generation units and national holidays these exogenous events affect electricity prices in switzerland and allow estimating the level of market integration by disentangling their effects in congested and non congested situations exploiting information on congested and non congested situations in parametric instrumental variable estimation permits simulating hypothetical non congested swiss electricity prices in historically congested situations our approach allows considering the non linear nature of level shifts of congestion and disentangling it from the structurally different interplay of demand and supply in respective situations using data on hourly electricity prices and its determinants regarding switzerland and neighboring countries from 2015 and 2016 we find that an expansion of interconnector capacity at the german austrian swiss border could decrease swiss electricity prices substantially in a more attenuated way the same holds true for the french swiss and the italian swiss border for switzerland as a whole prices in congested situations are about 17 higher than hypothetical non congested prices

transmission of prices and price volatility in australian electricity spot markets a multivariate garch analysis this paper examines the transmission of spot electricity prices and price volatility among the five regional electricity markets in the australian national electricity market namely new south wales queensland south australia the snowy mountains hydroelectric scheme and victoria a multivariate generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model is used to identify the source and magnitude of price and price volatility spillovers the results indicate the presence of positive own mean spillovers in only a small number of markets and no mean spillovers between any of the markets this appears to be directly related to the physical transfer limitations of the present system of regional interconnection nevertheless the large number of significant own volatility and cross volatility spillovers in all five markets indicates the presence of strong autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity and generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity effects this indicates that shocks in some markets will affect price volatility in others finally and contrary to evidence from studies in north american electricity markets the results also indicate that australian electricity spot prices are stationary

econometric modeling of regional electricity spot prices in the australian market abstract wholesale electricity markets are increasingly integrated via high voltage interconnectors and inter regional trade in electricity is growing to model this we consider a spatial equilibrium model of price formation where constraints on inter regional flows result in three distinct equilibria in prices we use this to motivate an econometric model for the distribution of observed electricity spot prices that captures many of their unique empirical characteristics the econometric model features supply and inter regional trade cost functions which are estimated using bayesian monotonic regression smoothing methodology a copula multivariate time series model is employed to capture additional dependence both cross sectional and serial in regional prices the marginal distributions are nonparametric with means given by the regression means the model has the advantage of preserving the heavy right hand tail in the predictive densities of price we fit the model to half hourly spot price data in the five interconnected regions of the australian national electricity market the fitted model is then used to measure how both supply and price shocks in one region are transmitted to the distribution of prices in all regions in subsequent periods finally to validate our econometric model we show that prices forecast using the proposed model compares favorably with those from some benchmark alternatives

deviations from purchasing power parity under different exchange rate regimes do they revert and if so how abstract we propose an empirical model for deviations from long run purchasing power parity ppp that simultaneously accounts for three key features i adjustment toward ppp may occur via nominal exchange rates and relative prices at different speeds ii different exchange rate regimes may generate regime shifts in the structural dynamics of ppp deviations iii nonlinear reversion toward ppp in response to shocks this empirical framework encompasses and synthesizes much previous empirical research using over a century of data for the g5 countries we provide evidence that long run ppp holds the relative importance of nominal exchange rates and prices in restoring ppp varies over time and across different exchange rate regimes and reversion to ppp occurs nonlinearly at a speed that is fairly consistent with the nominal rigidities suggested by conventional open economy models

nominal exchange rate regimes and the real exchange rate abstract two assumptions about the real exchange rate are common in the literature on international finance 1 the real exchange rate is a random walk 2 the time series properties of the real exchange rate depend on the nominal exchange rate regime this paper presents evidence that indicates that the random walk behavior of the real exchange rate is only a characteristic of the post world war ii period moreover our findings also suggest that what is crucial to the real exchange rate behavior is the particular historical period rather than the nominal exchange rate arrangement

electricity wholesale market prices in europe convergence abstract this paper tests the hypothesis that the ongoing restructuring process in the european electricity sector has led to a common european market for electricity based on a principal component analysis pca of wholesale electricity prices in 2002 2006 we reject the assumption of full market integration for several pairs of countries the weaker hypothesis of bilateral convergence is accepted based on unit root tests kpss and adf and a convergence test based on filtered pairwise price relations this indicates that the efforts to develop a single european market for electricity were so far only partially successful we show that the daily auction prices of scarce cross border transmission capacities are insufficient to explain the persistence of international price differentials empirically our findings confirm the insufficiency of explicit capacity auctions as stated in the theoretical literature

time zero efficiency of european power derivatives markets abstract we study time zero efficiency of electricity derivatives markets by time zero efficiency is meant a sequence of prices of derivatives contracts having the same underlying asset but different times to maturity which implies that prices comply with a set of efficiency conditions that prevent profitable time zero arbitrage opportunities we investigate whether statistical tests based on the law of one price and trading rules based on price differentials and no arbitrage violations are useful for assessing time zero efficiency we apply tests and trading rules to daily data of three european power markets germany france and spain in the case of the german market after considering liquidity availability and transaction costs results are not inconsistent with time zero efficiency however in the case of the french and spanish markets limitations in liquidity and representativeness are challenges that prevent definite conclusions liquidity in french and spanish markets should improve by using pricing and marketing incentives these incentives should attract more participants into the electricity derivatives exchanges and should encourage them to settle otc trades in clearinghouses publication of statistics on prices volumes and open interest per type of participant should be promoted

integration and shock transmissions across european electricity forward markets abstract new results are presented relating to the integration of the french german british dutch and spanish power markets at day ahead week ahead one month ahead and two month ahead lead times overall there is evidence of market integration increasing over time despite an underlying inefficiency in each market with respect to the forward and spot price convergence the spatial analysis on a financial dimension is undertaken using causality tests cointegration and impulse response techniques for both price levels and volatilities in general we find less influence of the size and proximity of neighbouring markets than other studies more integration at baseload than peak and surprisingly less integration in forwards than spot prices

an econometric analysis of the drivers for residential heating consumption in the uk and germany abstract affecting millions of europeans energy poverty is increasingly high on the political agenda this paper compares space and water heating demand at household level in germany and in the united kingdom uk between 1991 and 2015 the elasticities of consumption of space and water heating with respect to price income and heating degree days hdd are examined using non parametric models domestic heating consumption is highly elastic with hdd in both countries and hdd elasticities are found to be higher in the uk from a certain income threshold heating demand decreases as income increases in german households whereas demand rises with higher incomes in the uk high price elasticities indicate that uk households are very responsive to energy conservation measures therefore implying that a pricing policy will effectively reduce heating consumption however in germany the impact of pricing policies is unclear thus the most effective policy measure to decrease domestic heating consumption in germany in the long run should be one which targets improvements of building envelope performance levels

integration of the global carbon markets abstract this paper analyzes the market architecture and common factors of emission reduction instruments in europe and north america spot and futures prices across exchanges in europe are cointegrated but the futures curve beyond the calendar year evolves independently despite narrower spreads political uncertainties about the clean development mechanism have kept eua and cer prices from converging rggi allowances share a common trend with eua and the european markets adjust to the u s price trend a 0 10 shock to rggi prices leads to a one month 0 64 cumulative increase in eua prices the introduction of cap and trade legislation in the u s has broken a cointegrating relationship in voluntary prices voluntary instruments that are convertible into mandatory allowances imply less than a 20 probability of price convergence between the u s and europe by 2013

the structure of an environmental transaction the debt for nature swap the structure and occurrence of debt for nature swaps are examined empirically contracts executing debt for nature swaps are studied to assess the role of transaction costs in determining how these agreements are structured the emerging contract form is a product of weak enforcement of legal claims to environmental resources in developing countries high costs for delineating and monitoring environmental outcomes and nominal government ownership of the resources involved the occurrence of swaps in individual countries is significantly related to host country attributes including the presence of tropical land and threatened species democratic political institutions and large debt burdens

germany s nuclear power plant closures and the integration of electricity markets in europe this paper examines the potential implications of national policies that lead to a sudden increase of wind power in the electricity mix for interconnected european electricity markets more specifically it examines market integration before and after the closures of eight nuclear power plants that occurred within a period of a few months in germany during 2011 the short and long run interrelationships of daily electricity spot prices from november 2009 to october 2012 in apx endex belpex epex de epex fr nordpool omel and swissix and wind power in the german system are analysed two mgarch multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity models with dynamic correlations are used to assess spot market behaviour in the short run and a fractional cointegration analysis is conducted to investigate changes in the long run behaviour of electricity spot prices results show positive time varying correlations between spot prices in markets with substantial shared interconnector capacity a negative association between wind power penetration in germany and electricity spot prices in the german and neighbouring markets and for most markets a decreasing speed in mean reversion

a history of european electricity day ahead prices in this article we examine the development of day ahead prices in five european markets which became more connected over recent years where previous studies examined the convergence of price levels over time we focus on patterns in estimates for the parameters in a switching regimes model this makes it possible to distinguish between prices under normal market conditions and under non normal market conditions those market conditions that can cause extreme price spikes we expect that increased connectivity yields additional supply in the short term and therefore will reduce the impact of price spikes our results indicate that the impact of price spikes and volatility decreased over time that prices behave more random and that the parameter estimates between various connected markets seem to have converged between the belgian dutch french german and nordic day ahead markets over the years 2003 through 2010 these results can be explained by increased connectivity and improved liquidity

how to benefit from a common european electricity market design abstract the realization of an internal electricity market in europe is currently on the one hand progressing in particular thanks to the wide spread implementation of market coupling solutions for cross border congestion management on the other hand diverging national market designs pose a threat to the continuation of this process given the challenges to electricity market design in a multi regional context we analyze how different design aspects namely cross border congestion management and capacity mechanisms affect welfare and generation adequacy in europe in doing so we rely on an agent based simulation model for electricity wholesale markets which we apply within several numerical computational case studies for the region of central western europe 2012 2030 our results confirm the benefits of market coupling in terms of welfare as well as generation adequacy furthermore we find indications that coordinating market designs across regions supports these targets therefore we recommend that european energy policy forms a stable transparent regulatory framework with cross border market coupling as an integral component in this context energy policy targets should be clearly defined and operationalized which also needs to consider potential conflicts between them finally electricity market designs need to be coordinated among states to benefit most from a common european market

how much should we pay for interconnecting electricity markets a real options approach abstract an interconnector is an asset that gives the owner the option to transmit electricity between two locations in financial terms the value of an interconnector is the same as a strip of real options written on the spread between power prices in two markets we model the spread based on a seasonal trend mean reverting gaussian process and mean reverting jump process and express the value of these real options in closed form the valuation tool is applied to five pairs of european neighboring markets to value a hypothetical one year lease of the interconnector using different assumptions about the seasonal component of the spread and different liquidity caps which proxy for the depth of the interconnected power markets we derive no arbitrage lower bounds for the value of the interconnector in terms of electricity futures contract and find that depending on the depth of the market the jumps in the spread can account for between 1 and 40 of the total value of the interconnector the two markets where an interconnector would be most resp least valuable are germany and the netherlands resp france and germany finally we provide rules of thumb to interpret the different interconnector values

a dynamic network analysis of spot electricity prices in the australian national electricity market abstract this study applies dynamic network analysis to the power sector examining the relationship between regional spot electricity prices in the australian national electricity market nem in particular we employ principal component analysis and generate granger causality networks to examine the degree of interconnectedness of the nem in a time varying setting we find that the derived measures of interdependence can be related to actual market events such as price spikes unexpected high demand for electricity sudden increases in price volatility rebidding of dominant generators the temporary or permanent outage of major power stations and upgrades and limitations in transmission capacity in the analysed network we find that stronger dependence is exhibited by regional markets that are linked through interconnectors while the direction of granger causality can be related to interregional trade we further examine the usefulness of the derived measures for forecasting distributional characteristics of spot prices such as the maximum price volatility price spreads or upcoming periods of price spikes our results suggest that the derived network measures have predictive power albeit limited for the behaviour of spot electricity prices in the nem