testing for nonlinear dependence in daily foreign exchange rates the purpose of this article is to investigate whether daily changes in five major foreign exchange rates contain any nonlinearities although the data contain no linear correlation evidence indicates the presence of substantial nonlinearity in a multiplicative rather than additive form further examination reveals that a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model can explain a large part of the nonlinearities for all five exchange rates copyright 1989 by the university of chicago

the choice of exchange rate regime and the volatility of exchange rates after the asian crisis a counterfactual analysis the objective of this paper is to carry out a counterfactual analysis of the impact of alternative exchange rate regimes on the volatility of the nominal effective exchange rate neer and the bilateral rate against the us dollar for nine east asian countries after the asian financial crisis our hypothetical regimes include a unilateral basket peg ubp a common basket peg cbp and a hard peg against the dollar we find that a ubp would minimise effective exchange rate volatility for all countries and provides the highest regime gains compared to actual although the gains for a cbp are always less than those for a ubp the absolute differences between the two regimes appear to be small in terms of the bilateral relationship against the dollar the gains from a ubp or cbp could be quite significant for the non dollar peggers since a fall in effective instability would be accompanied by a fall in bilateral instability

implicit contracts moral hazard and unemployment this paper considers a firm whose marginal revenue product of labor is a random variable we derive the form of an optimal long term contract between workers and the firm under the assumption that labor s marginal product is observed by the firm but not by the workers we show that the existence of asymmetric information causes unemployment to be greater than in a situation where information about labor s marginal product is public or where employment is determined in spot markets in particular unemployment can occur when the marginal product of labor exceeds the reservation wage

modelling money demand in germany in this paper an empirically stable money demand model for m3 in germany is presented the sample period 1975 94 includes german unification it is shown that this development has not substantially destabilized money demand parameter stability is extensively tested and not rejected applying encompassing tests this model encompasses two recent models but is not encompassed by them exogeneity of the explanatory variables is discussed and tested along the definitions given in engle hendry and richard 1983 there is evidence that inflation and long term interest rates are super exogenous with respect to the parameters of the demand for m3 model this result and the empirical long run money demand function presented in this paper may affect the applicability of the so called p star concept for german m3 1998 john wiley sons ltd

why the middle is unstable the political economy of exchange rate regimes and currency crises the contribution of sticky exchange rates to the rash of currency crises over the past decade has become a major topic of international monetary analysis and policy discussion while there is widespread agreement among economists that the middle of the exchange rate spectrum adjustable pegs is highly crisis prone in a world of substantial capital mobility jeffrey frankel has recently argued that surprisingly we lack a clear theoretical rationale for why this is so this paper attempts to fill that void it argues that frankel is correct in terms of economic analysis alone but that when political economy considerations are introduced then a satisfactory explanation is at hand key aspects of this political economy perspective are laid out and implications for exchange rate policy are considered the analysis suggests that for promoting currency stability the traditionally debated distinctions between crawling bands and managed floats are likely less important than the political environments in which they are operated

tests for parameter instability in regressions with i 1 processes this article derives the large sample distributions of lagrange multiplier lm tests for parameter instability against several alternatives of interest in the context of cointegrated regression models the fully modified estimator of phillips and hansen is extended to cover general models with stochastic and deterministic trends the test statistics considered include the supf test of quandt as well as the lm tests of nyblom and of nabeya and tanaka it is found that the asymptotic distributions depend on the nature of the regressor processes that is if the regressors are stochastic or deterministic trends the distributions are noticeably different from the distributions when the data are weakly dependent it is also found that the lack of cointegration is a special case of the alternative hypothesis considered an unstable intercept so the tests proposed here may also be viewed as a test of the null of cointegration against the alternative of no cointegration the tests are applied to three data se

exchange rate exchange rate volatility and foreign direct investment in the light of the importance of foreign direct investment fdi for the promotion of economic development this paper examines the impact of the changes in the real exchange rate and its volatility on fdi examining japan s fdi by industries we found that the depreciation of the currency of the host country attracted fdi while the high volatility of the exchange rate discouraged fdi our results suggest the need to avoid over valuation of the exchange rate and to maintain stable but flexible exchange rate in order to attract fdi

the statistical properties of daily foreign exchange rates 1974 1983 abstract this paper examines the statistical properties of daily rates of change of five foreign currencies from 1974 to 1983 the main purpose is to discriminate between two competing explanations for the observed heavy tails of the distribution that the data are independently drawn from a heavy tail distribution which remains fixed over time and that the data come from distributions which vary over time evidence point to the rejection of the first hypothesis further investigations show that the rejection can be attributed to changing means and variances in the data which can be described by a simple statistical model

an international comparison of prices and exchange rates a new test of purchasing power parity abstract this paper introduces a new approach based on divisia index numbers to test ppp with both short run and long run data for all major currencies simultaneously the short run results indicate that the predictions of ppp do not hold up at all well on the other hand however the long run data are quite consistent with the ppp hypothesis the results also identify five years as a broad measure of the length of the long run insolar as ppp is concerned

global economic activity and crude oil prices a cointegration analysis abstract this paper empirically investigates the cointegrating relationship between crude oil prices and global economic activity the kilian economic index is used as an indicator of global economic activity based on a supply demand framework and the cointegration theory we find that real futures prices of crude oil are cointegrated with the kilian economic index and a trade weighted us dollar index and crude oil prices are influenced significantly by fluctuations in the kilian economic index through both long run equilibrium conditions and short run impacts we also develop an empirically stable data coherent and single equation error correction model ecm which has sensible economic properties empirical results based on the ecm show that the adjustment implied by a permanent change in the kilian economic index is a relatively drawn out process

optimal labour contracts under asymmetric information an introduction the review of economic studies has instituted a new series of lectures to be given annually by a younger british economist at the association of university teachers of economics meetings the choice of lecturer is determined by a panel whose members are currently professors hahn mirrlees and nobay this paper is a revised version of the first lecture in the series it was presented at the aute meeting held at the university of surrey in april 1982 and was refereed in the usual way mak

why do oil prices jump or fall this paper discusses theories that can explain the zig zags of oil prices in general and in particular the recent jump more precisely the following explanations are discussed homo oeconomicus pure profit maximization if demand is dynamic and convex price reaction function price increases and respectively declines depend on capacity utilization cartelization contingent on output or revenues of which the latter can lead to backward bending supply segments and multiple equilibria statistical descriptions mean reversion homo politicus i e arguments for price hikes that are rational public choice despite the long run economic loss finally two approaches are presented that emphasize demand uncertainty one extending the above mentioned dynamic demand framework and the other considers a dynamic game of non competitive suppliers with lumpy investments summing up a demand shock seems to be the most suitable explanation of today s high prices indeed a shock given that international energy agency iea and department of energy doe were promising just a couple of years ago that we are going to have lots of oil at low prices while others and in particular politics have surprisingly little or no explanatory power

oil price dynamics 2002 2006 abstract oil price dynamics during 2002 2006 have been characterized by high volatility high intensity jumps and strong upward drift and were concomitant with underlying fundamentals of oil markets and world economy namely pressure on oil prices resulting from rigid crude oil supply and expanding world demand for crude oil a change in the oil price process parameters would require a change in underlying fundamentals market expectations extracted from call and put option prices anticipated no change in underlying fundamentals in the short term markets expected oil prices to remain volatile and jumpy and with higher probabilities to rise rather than fall above the expected mean

oil futures prices and stock management a cointegration analysis abstract futures markets are considered important to hedgers and speculators therefore they are relevant to stock management this issue is tested empirically by applying the methodology of cointegration analysis and causality testing to the monthly average of commercial non strategic primary oil stocks and monthly averages of west texas intermediate wti spot and futures prices for one month and three months delivery over the period january 1985 to june 1993 long and short run relations are presented the results support the view of a relationship between futures prices and oil stocks

productivity effects of worker participation in management profit sharing worker ownership of assets and unionization in u s firms abstract in this paper we provide our first econometric estimates of the effect of worker participation in decision making ownership and profits on productive efficiency participation has the potential for exerting several conflicting influences on firm performance simultaneously as a result both the direction and magnitude of its impact are empirical issues previous studies have empirically measured the impact of each of these forms of participation however no prior study has controlled for the influence of the other forms because of the potential for correlation among these forms of participation it is possible that omitted variables bias has affected the previous results using a new panel data set with simultaneous measures of all four types of participation in u s manufacturing establishments we model participation as disembodied technical change and estimate production function coefficients for each type while controlling for the others we use both ols and instrumental variables in order to guard against potential simultaneity the iv results indicate that participation in decision making has a large positive productivity effect while the impacts of unionization and profit sharing depend upon regression specification moderate amounts of indirect worker ownership affect productivity positively while the estimated effect of direct worker ownership is negative however this last result may reflect the industrial concentration of the direct ownership firms in our sample

monetary control with an exchange rate objective the bank of japan 1973 86 abstract this paper analyzes the switch in monetary control procedures by the bank of japan toward a so called money focused monetary policy in the mid 1970s the extent to which monetary control under the new regime has been limited by an exchange rate objective is examined through estimation of an explicit bank of japan boj reaction function we find evidence that the boj operating instrument has been systematically manipulated with a view to maintain short term money control but that this objective has often been dominated by an attempt to moderate yen dollar exchange rate fluctuations

exchange rate economics is always and everywhere controversial abstractthis article reviews the major developments in the recent literature on exchange rate economics it is argued that the link between the exchange rate and economic fundamentals is breaking new ground evidence indicates that alternative analytical frameworks such as the new open economy macroeconomics and exchange rate arrangements such as the euro have their theoretical and analytical elegance but are proving empirically very difficult to implement the role of methodological advances and alternative fundamental instruments such as world commodity prices is also highlighted

modeling inflation in australia this article develops an empirically constant data coherent error correction model for inflation in australia the level of consumer prices is a markup over domestic and import costs with adjustments for dynamics and relative aggregate demand we address issues of cointegration general to specific modeling dynamic specification model evaluation and testing parameter constancy forecasting and exogeneity we also test this model against existing models of australian prices this model encompasses but is not encompassed by the existing models

evidence on incentive effects of subjective performance evaluations the authors investigate the effect of managerial performance evaluation styles on employee work effort using panel data on 4 080 employees in a swiss unit of an international company for the period 1999 2002 they test two hypotheses using paid and unpaid overtime work as effort indicators the company applies two performance based remuneration mechanisms an individual surprise bonus and one in which salary is affected by the extent to which an individual has reached personalized targets the authors hypothesize that effort is higher in departments in which individual performance evaluations are more flexible over time as well as when surprise bonuses are used more frequently both hypotheses are supported and the estimated effects are substantial increases in rating flexibility or bonus payments by one standard deviation above the mean increase average overtime hours by more than 20 the findings are robust and suggest that surprise bonuses and flexible performance evaluations over time provide ef

the empirical relationship between energy futures prices and exchange rates abstract this paper investigates the interaction between energy futures prices and exchange rates results are presented to show that futures prices for crude oil heating oil and unleaded gasoline are co integrated with a trade weighted index of exchange rates this is important because it means that there exists a long run equilibrium relationship between these four variables granger causality results for both the long and short run are presented evidence is also presented that suggests exchange rates transmit exogenous shocks to energy futures prices

exogenous oil supply shocks how big are they and how much do they matter for the u s economy abstract the paper proposes a new measure of exogenous oil supply shocks the timing the magnitude and the sign of this measure may differ greatly from current state of the art estimates it is shown that only a small fraction of the observed oil price increases during oil crisis periods can be attributed to exogenous oil production disruptions exogenous oil supply shocks cause a sharp drop of u s real gdp growth after five quarters rather than an immediate and sustained reduction in economic growth and a spike in cpi inflation after three quarters overall exogenous oil supply shocks made remarkably little difference for the evolution of the u s economy since the 1970s although they did matter for some historical episodes

the simple macroeconomics of profit sharing this paper is in the spirit of the temporary equilibrium approach to macroeconomics it basically extends that framework to cover a profit sharing system and then compares the macroeconomic characteristics with those of the more familiar wage system a first preliminary step is to demonstrate how a microeconomic model of monopolistic competition can be built up into a junior member of the keynesian macro family the methodology is to create from first principles including a careful formulation of a monopolistically competitive product market structurea natural underpinning for the standard aggregate demand specification the primary goal of the paper is to apply the integrated monopolistic competitionkeynesian type apparatus described above to investigate the macroeconomic properties of a profit sharing economy the existence of a consistent general framework covering both cases invites meaningful comparisons that indicate clearly why an economy based on profit sharing principles possesses natural immunity to stagflation by contrast the wage economya system we have largely accepted without critically examining its macroeconomic consequences is more prone to suffer from unemployment and inflation the policy implications for aggregate demand management in wage and share systems are analyzed and contrasted in writing this paper my philosophy has been to not shirk from using those reasonable parameterizations and functional forms which yield nice crisp results and permit me to focus sharply on the essential logic of basic issues it is certainly possible to present the main results in a somewhat more general formulation as the astute reader will appreciate but i fear only at some cost of distracting attention from those central features i wish to highlight

exchange rate volatility before and after the float this paper provides a descriptive analysis of broad features of major exchange rates since the early 1970s and compares these features with those of the 1960s the analysis is then extended to investigate whether these features are manifested in interest rates and in commodity prices the results indicate that while the exchange rates have become more volatile during the current floating rate regime the moments are comparable with those for interest rates and commodity prices

a model of exchange rate dynamics this model treats the exchange rate as an asset price that depends on expectations concerning exogenous real and monetary factors that will affect relative prices and absolute price levels in future periods changes in exchange rates reflect both expected changes in these exogenous factors and changes in expectations occasioned by new information the model explains the random component in exchange rate behavior the source of divergences from purchasing power parity the anticipatory response of exchange rates to future expected disturbances and the causes of exchange rate overshooting

the productivity effects of employee stock ownership plans and bonuses evidence from japanese panel data the authors report the first results for japanese firms on the effects of employee stock ownership plans esops and bonuses by estimating production functions using new panel data they find that the introduction of an esop will lead to a 4 5 percent increase in productivity this productivity payoff takes three to four years there is a modest productivity gain from the bonus system the authors also find evidence that the productivity effect of bonuses is enhanced by the existence of esops suggesting that esops may create a climate conducive to profit sharing by enhancing long term commitment and peer monitoring copyright 1995 by american economic association

the effects of workers participation on enterprise performance empirical evidence from french cooperatives abstract the results of estimating production functions augmented by various measures of workers participation on a large enterprise level data set of french cooperatives are reported value added is found to be an increasing function of participation in profits in collective membership and in ownership even when a wide assortment of enterprise specific and environmental factors are taken into account this finding is very robust surviving tests between alternative specifications of technology for reverse causality for simultaneous equation bias and for multicollinearity the typical productivity effect from participation however is small around 5 of output the results suggest that western policymakers should investigate ways to increase workers participation in capital stakes and profit shares

how relevant is volatility forecasting for financial risk management it depends if volatility fluctuates in a forecastable way volatility forecasts are useful for risk management hence the interest in volatility forecastability in the risk management literature volatility forecastability however varies with horizon and different horizons are relevant in different applications moreover existing assessments of volatility forecastability are plagued by the fact that they are joint assessments of volatility forecastability and an assumed model and the results can vary not only with the horizon but also with the assumed model to address this problem we develop a model free procedure for assessing volatility forecastability across horizons perhaps surprisingly we find that volatility forecastability decays quickly with horizon volatility forecastability although clearly of relevance for risk management at the short horizons relevant for say trading desk management may be much less important at longer horizons

the effects of profit sharing on employment wages stock returns and productivity evidence from uk micro data this paper provides evidence based on u k firm level data that 1 the authors cannot reject the view that profit sharing firms view the total level of remuneration as the marginal cost of labor which is contrary to much of weitzman s analysis 2 there is some support for the popular view that profit sharing raises total remuneration and can therefore be inflationary and 3 the introduction of profit sharing does lead to higher productivity but this combined with the employment reducing consequences of 2 leads the authors to conclude that the net employment effect is small and uncertain copyright 1990 by royal economic society

annual bonuses employment and productivity change in taiwan s manufacturing sector abstract taiwanese manufacturing firms have traditionally made annual bonus payments to employees concentrated around the lunar new year holiday this paper uses industry data to investigate the connection between compensation volatility and the volatility and growth rate of employment we observe a significant relationship between employment and seasonally predictable compensation volatility implying that industries in which firms commit themselves to paying regular new year bonuses employ more workers more stably we also investigate the relationship between compensation profits and productivity growth we find a significant role for productivity growth in the determination of profits and for profits in the determination of bonuses however it appears that productivity growth itself is mainly determined by exogenous factors and is only slightly responsive to the bonus system