is it time to split the s p 500 futures contract by october 1996 the value of the s p 500 index futures contract had grown to five times its value at its inception in april 1982 one way to make the contract more accessible to small investors and to smooth out trading is to split the contract splitting the contract could increase transaction costs although competition would probably limit the amount of the increase less clear is the need for increasing the minimum percentage tick size the current minimum tick size is small for s p 500 futures compared with that of other futures and also common stocks the larger tick size could affect volume however by increasing trading costs and reducing the willingness to trade

aggregate earnings and gross domestic product international evidence abstractrecent studies in macro accounting suggest that changes in aggregate accounting earnings can predict quarterly gdp growth in the usa our objective in this study is to test the robustness o

refinancing profitability and capital structure abstract we revisit the well established puzzle that leverage is negatively correlated with measures of profitability in contrast we find that at times when firms are at or close to their optimal level of leverage the cross sectional correlation between profitability and leverage is positive at other times it is negative these results are consistent with dynamic trade off models in which infrequent capital structure rebalancing is optimal the time series of market leverage and profitability in the quarters prior to rebalancing events match the patterns predicted by these models our results are not driven by investment layouts market timing payout or mechanical mean reversion of leverage

debt in industry equilibrium this article shows 1 how entry and exit of firms in a competitive industry affect the valuation of securities and optimal capital structure and 2 how given a trade off between tax advantages and agency costs a firm will optimally adjust its leverage level after it is set up we derive simple pricing expressions for corporate debt in which the price elasticity of demand for industry output plays a crucial role when a firm optimally adjusts its leverage over time we show that total firm value comprises the value of discounted cash flows assuming fixed capital structure plus a continuum of options for marginal increases in debt article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

investment and competition this paper examines how industry structure affects corporate investment patterns real options theory shows that deferring irreversible investment in the face of uncertainty is valuable theory also shows that the value of waiting to invest falls if investment opportunities are contestable consistent with these theories we find that firms in monopolistic industries exhibit lower investment q sensitivity and are slower to invest than firms in competitive industries however we find that investment q sensitivity and investment speed are highest in oligopolistic industries suggesting that the value of investing strategically can outweigh the value of waiting indeed oligopolistic industries experience less entry and more exit than other industries

information quality and market efficiency the purpose of this paper is to analyze the optimal individual behavior in acquiring infor mation and to determine the amount of information incorporated in a stock at equilibrium in the presence of a cost schedule in acquiring information our paper shows that at equi librium the cost to acquire information that is not already incorporated in the price de pends only on the representative investor s risk preferences it follows that the marginal information costs are the same across all stocks at equilibrium even though the stock s information costs schedules may differ this suggests that the prices of small stocks may not incorporate all publicly available information this paper also provides empirical evi dence that newspapers publication of publicly available information can affect the stock prices

welfare analysis and intertemporal substitution abstract this paper explores the structure of welfare comparisons when direct utility is weakly separable over time the lifetime welfare effect of a reform is then the sum of atemporal hicksian variations and intertemporal variations reflecting intertemporal substitution these latter are shown to be of only second order importance in lifetime welfare comparisons approximations to the intertemporal variations when preferences are intertemporally additive are derived pointing to the welfare significance in this context of not only the intertemporal elasticity of substitution but also within period income effects numerical examples illustrate the analysis and suggest possible orders of magnitude

vertically summing public good demand curves an empirical comparison of economic versus political jurisdictions fiscal equivalence for efficient provision of a public good requires perfect correspondence between political and economic jurisdictions however the spatial extent of the economic jurisdiction is an empirical question drawing on four survey based valuation studies we measure the relative public good benefit gradient as a function of residential location from six natural resource public goods the results indicate commonly used state political jurisdictions reflect an average of 13 of total benefits in the economic jurisdiction although with a logarithmic form for distance the upper confidence interval of state benefits can include 100 for some species

capital structure and product market rivalry how do we reconcile theory and evidence this paper presents empirical evidence on the interaction of capital structure decisions and product market behavior we examine when firms recapitalize and increase the proportion of debt in their capital structure the evidence in this paper shows that firms with low productivity plants in highly concentrated industries are more likely to recapitalize and increase debt financing this finding suggests that debt plays a role in highly concentrated industries where agency costs are not significantly reduced by product market competition following the empirical evidence we introduce the strategic investment effects of debt and argue that this effect in conjunction with agency costs appears to fit the data this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

conversation information and herd behavior experimental evidence shows that an important reason why people tend to imitate others to exhibit herd behavior is that they assume that the others have information that justifies their actions the information cascade models of banerjee 1992 and bikhchandani et al 1992 are significant developments in showing some general equilibrium and welfare effects of such rational imitative behavior but these models as specified may be of limited applicability since they assert that differences across groups in herd behavior can be attributed to the random decisions of first movers differences across groups in herd behavior might be explained more often in terms of different modes of interpersonal information transmission patterns of human conversation imply great selectivity to the kinds of information transmitted within groups this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

multinationality portfolio diversification and asymmetric mne performance the moderating role of real options awareness the field of international business is fundamentally concerned with the implications of managerial actions that affect multinational risk and performance outcomes while portfolio diversification and real options theory are often used to describe the outcomes of multinational investment existing work often confuses the actions and predictions proposed by these theories this is concerning as the two theories emphasize different causal mechanisms managerial actions and conceptions of risk and performance whereas portfolio theory argues that passive management affects symmetric outcomes such as variance in returns by attaining a well diversified portfolio real options theory posits that managers actively shift subsidiary resources to affect asymmetric outcomes such as upside potential or downside risk by monitoring and responding to environmental changes affecting the portfolio this paper disentangles these two theories by focusing on unique predictions from real options theory that geographic dispersion of mne activities is associated with asymmetric outcomes that this association is contingent on management being aware of real options logic and that these effects are moderated by the degree of market uncertainty our findings confirm these predictions and suggest differences in the types of managerial strategies and actions required to effectively implement these distinct theories of the mne

determinants of capital structure evidence from a major developing economy a major shortcoming of capital structure studies on developing economies is that they generally restrict their analyses to large publicly traded manufacturing firms consequently we know little about the applicability of various capital structure theories to firms that are private small and or outside the manufacturing industry in these economies in this paper we conduct a comparative test of the trade off and pecking order theories using a comprehensive firm level dataset that covers manufacturing non manufacturing small large publicly traded and private firms in a major developing economy turkey the trade off theory provides a better description of the capital structures of all firm types than the pecking order theory moreover the trade off theory appears to be particularly suitable for understanding the financing choices of large private firms in the non manufacturing sector and when the economic environment is relatively stable by contrast pecking order theory is most useful when it comes to small publicly traded manufacturing firms especially when the economic environment is relatively unstable

speculative prices and popular models t he rational expectations revolution in economics was born of the recognition that the expectations people hold for future economic variables are fundamental to their behavior thus our economists economic models require their those who make up the economy economic models models which they use to generate their expectations the key idea of rational expectations models is to collapse the two models into one to assume that people know or behave as if they know the true model that describes the economy this idea allows economists to construct simple and elegant models of the economy models that are appealing theoretically and that can be studied without collecting any data about the models in the minds of economic actors the problem with the rational expectations models is that collapsing the two kinds of models into one is a gross oversimplification obviously the popular models the models that are used by the broad masses of economic actors to form their expectations are not the same as those held by economists once one accepts the difference economic modelling cannot proceed without collecting data on the popular models themselves this paper reports on such a data collection effort on popular models using questionnaire survey methods with the purpose of understanding speculative markets i will report here on my research to understand the u s stock market crash of october 1987 research fumiko konya yoshiro tsutsui and i undertook to understand the japanese stock market crash of october 1987 research karl case and i undertook to understand recent real estate booms and research john pound and i undertook to understand the periodic hot markets for initial public offerings ipo s of common stock

financial signalling and the deep pocket argument this article provides a formal representation of telser s 1966 deep pocket argument by considering a model in which the entrant s and the incumbent s financial structures are endogenous the entrant s financial vulnerability may be explained by informational asymmetries in financial markets financiers are uncertain of the entrant s true value but they know the incumbent s true worth both firms have to finance a fixed expenditure before starting production in equilibrium the incumbent finances with equity while the high value entrant comes into the market heavily leveraged compared with the incumbent this provides an incentive for the incumbent to engage in predatory practices such as a price war to exhaust the entrant financially and cause his bankruptcy

think locally act locally spillovers spillbacks and efficient decentralized policymaking we analyze models with interjurisdictional spillovers among heterogeneous jurisdictions such as co 2 emissions that affect the global environment each jurisdiction s emissions depend upon the local stock of capital which is interjurisdictionally mobile and subject to local taxation in important cases decentralized policymaking leads to efficient resource allocation even in the complete absence of corrective interventions by higher level governments or coordination of policy through coasian bargaining in particular even when the preferences and production technologies differ among the agents the decentralized system can result in globally efficient allocation

analyzing the analysts career concerns and biased earnings forecasts this paper examines the career concerns of security analysts we relate long histories of their earnings forecasts to job separations we find that relatively accurate past forecasts lead to favorable career outcomes such as remaining at or moving up to a high status large prestigious brokerage house controlling for accuracy optimistic forecasts relative to the consensus increase the chances of favorable job separations job separations depend much less on accuracy for analysts who cover stocks that are underwritten by their brokerage houses such analysts are also much more likely to be rewarded for optimistic forecasts than other analysts furthermore job separations were much less sensitive to accuracy and somewhat more sensitive to optimism during the stock market mania of the late 1990s these findings suggest that the well documented analyst forecast optimism bias is likely due to incentives to promote stocks

nature roads or hospitals an empirical evaluation of sustainable development preferences while a key proposition is that a sustainable path is one where wealth does not decline whether losses in natural capital can be compensated in wellbeing terms by more produced social or natural capital remains an area of controversy in this paper we seek to better understand preferences for different combinations of assets that comprise part of the asset portfolio of a nation in a study of coastal and marine natural assets we test for the existence of weak or strong sustainability preferences using different compensation options respectively produced capital and natural capital offered to a sample of the public in spain in the case of possible future oil spills as a further element of this test we provide an empirical reflection on aldred 2002 2006 and turner 2007 who speculate that individuals may not view money as compensating for certain environmental losses whereas investments in social assets may offer a more acceptable compensation option our results do appear to circumscribe in some way the acceptability of investing in produced capital and reveal a tendency towards a preference for social capital compensation nevertheless the size of the oil spill and the environmental beliefs of respondents also influence choices over the natural capital compensation option

evidence on the impact of the agency costs of debt on corporate debt policy in the last several years there has been increased theoretical emphasis on the agent principal problem as it applies to corporate finance this paper is an attempt to empirically test for the presence of the agency costs and their relation to the debt policy of corporations we find that firms with higher insider ownership have greater debt ratios than firms with lower insider ownership which may be explained by the agency costs of debt and or the agency costs of equity other regression results tend to confirm the theoretically optimal relationships put forth by myers we find that high growth firms use less debt rather than more debt high operating risk firms use more debt rather than less debt and firm size appears to be uncorrelated to the level of debt

control rights and capital structure an empirical investigation we show that incentive conflicts between firms and their creditors have a large impact on corporate debt policy net debt issuing activity experiences a sharp and persistent decline following debt covenant violations when creditors use their acceleration and termination rights to increase interest rates and reduce the availability of credit the effect of creditor actions on debt policy is strongest when the borrower s alternative sources of finance are costly in addition despite the less favorable terms offered by existing creditors borrowers rarely switch lenders following a violation a fundamental question in financial economics is how do firms choose their financial policies extant empirical research on this question has focused primarily on the presence of taxes and bankruptcy costs e g scott 1976 information asymmetry e g myers and majluf 1984 and more recently market timing behavior e g baker and wurgler 2002 however beginning with jensen and meckling 1976 a large body of theoretical research examines how incentive conflicts between managers and external investors affect corporate financial policies in particular theoretical research on financial contracting shows that in the presence of incentive conflicts optimal debt contracts will allocate certain rights to creditors after negative performance in order to help firms secure financing ex ante e g aghion and bolton 1992 and dewatripont and tirole

effect of distance on the preservation value of water quality in the past dozen years an extensive body of literature has developed on the willingness to pay for water quality in particular its recreation use and nonuse preservation values this paper illustrates a procedure for estimating the effect of distance on the preservation value of environmental quality using the contingent valuation approach the case considered is the potential degradation of water quality due to coal mining activity in the flathead river drainage system montana the analysis supports a negative association for this particular study area the effect of distance on preservation value was considered both directly and indirectly through its effect on visits 36 references 2 tables

assessing natural resource damages using environmental annuities abstract although research methods exist to place economic values on lost wetland service flows in many circumtances the cost of conducting such research exceeds the expected value of damages in some cases sufficient time may not be available to undertake primary research in addition the existing wetland valuation research base is often inadequate to support defensible benefits transfer as an alternative to more traditional valuation techniques we propose a simplified approach based on environmental annuities the principal assumption behind this approach is that the public can be compensated for past losses in environmental services through the provision of additional services of the same type in the future an application of this approach as the basis of a recent natural resource damage claim is described

market efficiency bounded rationality and supplemental business reporting disclosures the aicpa special committee on financial reporting has urged disclosure of relevant forward looking information on risks and opportunities to supplement conventional financial statements we conduct a laboratory market experiment to assess the effects of such disclosures on capital allocation decisions we develop two sets of competing hypotheses regarding how capital markets react to supplemental disclosures one set is based on the assumption of semi strong market efficiency while the other posits that the bounded rationality of individual traders leads to inefficient market prices we find that explicit disclosure of management s best estimate of an uncertain quantity improves market efficiency even though this disclosure is redundant with information in financial statements second we find disclosure of an upper bound of management s estimate has the potential to bias security prices upward while informationally equivalent disclosure of both upper and lower bounds removes this bias these results suggest that experimental market reactions to these supplemental disclosures are inconsistent with market efficiency supplemental analyses of individuals price predictions and trading behavior support our conclusion that inefficiencies are at least partially attributable to individual information processing biases

how stable are corporate capital structures leverage cross sections more than a few years apart differ markedly with similarities evaporating as the time between them lengthens many firms have high and low leverage at different times but few keep debt to assets ratios consistently above 0 500 capital structure stability is the exception not the rule occurs primarily at low leverage and is virtually always temporary with many firms abandoning low leverage during the post war boom industry median leverage varies widely over time target leverage models that place little or no weight on maintaining a particular ratio do a good job replicating the substantial instability of the actual leverage cross section

budget referendums and government spending evidence from swiss cantons vortrag im forschungsseminar der wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen fakultat der universitat basel schweiz am 20 november 2000

on government centralization and fiscal referendums abstract several authors have argued that a centralization of fiscal powers in a federation is less likely to occur if citizens have to approve a change in the assignments of responsibilities by a popular referendum this outcome may be due to the fact that logrolling is more difficult under direct than under representative democracy it may also be caused by citizens fear that a centralization of fiscal authority facilitates the extraction of rents by the government or the legislature in this paper we test the hypothesis that centralization is less likely under referendum decision making in the unique institutional setting of switzerland using a panel of swiss cantons from 1980 to 1998 the empirical analysis provides evidence that referendums induce less centralization of fiscal activities

the spillover effects of md a disclosures for real investment the role of industry competition abstract we explore whether disclosures in the management discussion analysis mda it is stronger when firms operate in industries that have lower entry costs are larger and have less substitutable products we obtain similar results for investment efficiency overall our evidence suggests that md a disclosures have spillover effects for investment that can improve investment efficiency and that spillover effects are moderated by industry competition

the economic effects of constitutions replicating and extending persson and tabellini persson and tabellini the economic effects of constitutions the mit press cambridge 2003 show that presidential regimes and majoritarian election systems have important economic effects here the number of countries is expanded and more recent data is used in replicating and extending their analyses we find that the effect of presidential regimes vanishes almost entirely with regard to electoral systems the original results are largely confirmed majoritarian as opposed to proportional electoral systems lead to lower government expenditure lower levels of rent seeking but also lower output per worker the institutional details such as the proportion of candidates that are not elected on party lists and district size are particularly important

contagious speculation and a cure for cancer a nonevent that made stock prices soar a sunday new york times article on a potential development of new cancer curing drugs caused entremed s stock price to rise from 12 063 at the friday close to open at 85 and close near 52 on monday it closed above 30 in the three following weeks the enthusiasm spilled over to other biotechnology stocks the potential breakthrough in cancer research already had been reported however in the journal nature and in various popular newspapers including the times more than five months earlier thus enthusiastic public attention induced a permanent rise in share prices even though no genuinely new information had been presented a central tenet of f inancial economics is that an asset should trade at the risk adjusted present value of its expected future cash f lows these expected future cash f lows exist in people s minds and do not normally lend themselves to direct observation an equilibrium price in a frictionless market does not tolerate disagreements among market participants if some people deem the price too low they will buy the asset if others think it is too high they will sell it short if necessary although the efficient markets hypothesis predicts that price changes are unpredictable it associates them with changes in traders beliefs about future cash f lows or the appropriate discount rate beliefs change with the arrival of new information thus in hindsight at least we should be able to ascribe price changes to the arrival of specific new information we examine this view in the context of a series of news reports in the media pertaining to entremed enmd a biotechnology company and other members of its sector the sunday may 3 1998 edition of the new york times reports on a recent breakthrough in cancer research and mentions enmd a company with licensing rights to the breakthrough kolata 1998 the story s impact on the stock prices was immediate huge and to a large extent permanent the new news content of the times story was nil though the substance of the story had been published as a scientific piece in nature boehm et al 1997 and in the popular press including the times itself wade 1997 more than five months earlier in november 1997

an international comparison of capital structure and debt maturity choices this study examines how the institutional environment influences capital structure and debt maturity choices of firms in 39 developed and developing countries we find that a country s legal and tax system corruption and the preferences of capital suppliers explain a significant portion of the variation in leverage and debt maturity ratios specifically firms in more corrupt countries and those with weaker laws tend to use more debt especially short term debt explicit bankruptcy codes and deposit insurance are associated with higher leverage and more long term debt more debt is used in countries where there is a greater tax gain from leverage

real flexibility and financial structure an empirical analysis i examine the empirical relation between real flexibility and financial structure i test whether real flexibility increases debt capacity by lowering default risk and making assets more marketable or decreases debt capacity by facilitating risk shifting and asset substitution i measure real flexibility as the sensitivity of marginal production and investment decisions to variations in the economic environment i find that financial leverage is negatively related to production flexibility but positively related to investment flexibility this split in results suggests that although asset substitution facilitated by investment flexibility can be prevented contractually risk shifting facilitated by production flexibility is intractable copyright 2003 oxford university press

debt and the marginal tax rate abstract do taxes affect corporate debt policy this paper tests whether the incremental use of debt is positively related to simulated firm specific marginal tax rates that account for net operating losses investment tax credits and the alternative minimum tax the simulated marginal tax rates exhibit substantial variation due to the dynamics of the tax code tax regime shifts business cycle effects and the progressive nature of the statutory tax schedule using annual data from more than 10 000 firms for the years 1980 1992 i provide evidence which indicates that high tax rate firms issue more debt than their low tax rate counterparts

on the debt capacity of growth options we relate the value of growth options in the firm s investment opportunity set to the level of debt in the firm s capital structure underinestment costs of debt increase and free cash flow benefits fall with additional growth options thus if debt capacity is defined as the amount of debt the firm optimally adds for an incremental project then the debt capacity of growth options is negative this result implies that book leverage should fall with the addition of growth options our tests using a large sample of industrial firms confirm this prediction

capital structure and interaction among firms in output markets theory and evidence i develop a simple model that examines the relations between the extent of competitive interaction among firms in output markets their capital structures and the aggressiveness of their operating strategies a firm s optimal leverage is related to the degree to which its operating strategy affects its rivals value functions and resulting optimal output market choices this relation is positive regardless of whether the competition in output markets is in strategic substitutes or in strategic complements i test the model s prediction using two proxies for the extent of competitive interaction among firms the empirical evidence provides support for the model

the economic effects of direct democracy a first global assessment this is the first study that assesses the economic effects of direct democratic institutions on a cross country basis we find that total spending as well as spending on welfare is lower in countries with mandatory referendums consistent with the previous literature but we also find that countries with national initiatives appear to spend more and be more corrupt finally budget deficits government effectiveness productivity and happiness appear unrelated to direct democracy institutional detail thus matters a great deal in general the effects of direct democratic institutions become stronger if the frequency of their actual use is taken into account effects are usually stronger in countries with weak democracies

good day sunshine stock returns and the weather psychological evidence and casual intuition predict that sunny weather is associated with upbeat mood this paper examines the relationship between morning sunshine in the city of a country s leading stock exchange and daily market index returns across 26 countries from 1982 to 1997 sunshine is strongly significantly correlated with stock returns after controlling for sunshine rain and snow are unrelated to returns substantial use of weather based strategies was optimal for a trader with very low transactions costs however because these strategies involve frequent trades fairly modest costs eliminate the gains these findings are difficult to reconcile with fully rational price setting

non users willingness to pay for a national park an application and critique of the contingent valuation method bateman i j and langford i h 1997 non users willingness to pay for a national park an application and critique of the contingent valuation method reg studies 31 571 582 a great deal of the ongoing academic debate concerning the contingent valuation cv method has focused upon whether or not the method is suitable for assessing non use values this paper presents results from a study examining non users values for preserving the norfolk broads a wetland area of recognized international importance from the threat of saline flooding discussion of results centres upon the validity of the cv method for eliciting unbiased estimates of non use value a graphical representation of findings from a variety of studies is presented to suggest that such results are logically ordered across goods and valuation scenarios however as the paper concludes logicality and validity are not necessarily synonymous bateman i j et langford i h 1997 la volonte des non usagers de payer les parcs nationaux

the rewards to meeting or beating earnings expectations abstract this paper finds that firms that meet or beat current analysts earnings expectations mbe enjoy a higher return over the quarter than firms with similar quarterly earnings forecast errors that fail to meet these expectations further such a premium to mbe although somewhat smaller exists in the cases where mbe is likely to have been achieved through earnings or expectations management the findings also indicate that the premium to mbe is a leading indicator of future performance this premium and its predictive ability are only marginally affected by whether the mbe is genuine or the result of earnings or expectations management

fiscal effects of reforming local constitutions recent german experiences most german states amended their local constitutions during the 1990s and now allow for the direct election of mayors initiatives and referendums and vote aggregation as well as vote splitting in this paper it is asked whether these reforms had any effects on local fiscal policies it is shown that the direct election of mayors led to lower government spending whereas the introduction of direct democratic elements led to higher expenditures the empirical results concerning direct democracy are substantially different from findings in relation to both switzerland and the us it is argued that this difference may be due to a lack of fiscal referendums in germany

debt agency costs and industry equilibrium we show that risk characteristics of projects cash flows are endogenously determined by the investment decisions of all firms in an industry as a result in reasonable settings financial structures which create incentives to expropriate debtholders by increasing risk are shown not to reduce value in an industry equilibrium without taxes capital structure is irrelevant for individual firms despite its effect on the equityholders incentives but the maximum total amount of debt in the industry is determinate allowing for a corporate tax advantage of debt capital structure becomes relevant but firms are indifferent between distinct alternative debt levels the effect of firms financial structures on subsequent investment and output decisions has recently received considerable attention in the finance literature the central insight that equityholders control the firm s investment and production decisions and in general do not maximize the value of a levered firm has been applied to the analysis of risk shifting underinvestment and firms abilities to enter into optimal contracts with their customers existing models of firms financial structures and their effect on investment decisions are generally based on a single firm framework and do not take into account the relationship between project cash flows and the investment decisions of all firms in the industry 2 in this paper we allow the distribution of investment projects within an industry to adjust and show that this generates new insights and reverses several key results of single firm agency cost models the new predictions conform with well documented

sequencing and valuing public goods abstract this paper establishes several propositions concerning the importance of context in valuing public goods it first provides necessary and sufficient conditions for the value of a public good to be independent of context utility constant valuation sequences are considered where public goods are systematically made available or taken away for the case of strict hicksian substitutes willingness to pay for an increase in one of the public goods is strictly decreasing the farther out in a sequence it is valued for the destruction of public goods the reverse is true for willingness to accept compensation sequencing has opposite implications for the assessment of the benefits of providing public goods than for the assessment of the damage from destroying them

the political economy of direct legislation direct democracy and local decision making local fiscal referenda the dampening effect on taxes and spending local and regional governments account for an important share of total government spending and given the decentralization trend in oecd nations this is likely to increase how should this spending be governed this article argues that direct democracy is best suited to organize decision making at the state and local level to support this we present the main theoretical arguments on why and how referenda and initiatives affect fiscal policy outcomes the basic argument concerns voter control under representative democracy citizens only have direct control at election time with referenda and initiatives citizens can selectively control their representatives on specific policies whenever they deviate sufficiently from citizens preferences as a result fiscal policy outcomes are likely to more closely reflect voter preferences we empirically test this on swiss data since switzerland provides a natural laboratory for local governance the governance structures of swiss cantons and localities with respect to fiscal issues range from classic parliamentary democracy to pure direct democracy and an important part of spending and taxation is controlled at these levels specifically we estimate an econometric model of fiscal behaviour using data from 1986 to 1997 for the 26 swiss cantons and 1990 data on 134 local communities it is shown that mandatory referenda on fiscal issues at both levels have a dampening effect on expenditure and revenue and at the local level also on public debt combining this with existing empirical evidence leads to a relatively uncontested result namely that elements of direct democracy are associated with sounder public finances better economic performance and higher satisfaction of citizens lars p feld and gebhard kirchgassner

valuing ecosystem services on the basis of service providing units a potential approach to address the endpoint problem and improve stated preference methods abstract standardized methods are required to measure ecosystem services in order to value them in this paper we argue that the service providing unit spu concept may help achieve this objective by promoting the systematic quantification of the key components of nature that provide services e g population density of a key pollinator and linking these with measurable outcomes for human well being we discuss and provide examples of the potential role of the spu concept in improving economic valuation of ecosystem services further we suggest the concept may contribute to addressing the endpoint problem which can be defined simply as the inability of researchers to communicate the implications of environmental change in a way that is understood by a broad cross section of society the endpoint problem is of particular relevance to stated preference approaches and we discuss the capacity of the spu concept to refine these approaches we argue that the concept enhances interdisciplinary collaboration promoting more validated well informed valuation applications it also has the potential to minimize warm glow effects and put the notion of marginal changes in the provision of ecosystem services in a new light

contingent valuation controversies and evidence contingent valuation cv has become one of the most widely used non market valuation techniques cv s prominence is due to its flexibility and ability to estimate total value including passive use value its use and the inclusion of passive use value in benefit cost analyses and environ mental litigation are the subject of a contentious debate this paper discusses key areas of the debate over cv and the validity of passive use value we conclude that many of the alleged problems with cv can be resolved by careful study design and implementation we further conclude that claims that empirical cv findings are theoretically inconsistent are not generally supported by the literature the debate over cv however has clarified several key issues related to nonmarket valuation and can provide useful guidance both to cv practitioners and the users of cv results

accounting earnings and gross domestic product we document that aggregate accounting earnings growth is an incrementally significant leading indicator of growth in nominal gross domestic product gdp professional macro forecasters however do not fully incorporate the predictive content embedded in publicly available accounting earnings data as a result future nominal gdp growth forecast errors are predictable based on accounting earnings data that are available to professional macro forecasters in real time

consumer s surplus and welfare change in a simple dynamic model la somme escomptee d equivalents instantanes ou les variations compensees n est jamais un indicateur du bien etre economique exact pour un consommateur dont les preferences sont representees par une fonction utilite inter temporelle croissant

why leverage affects pricing we explain and provide evidence for effects of leverage on pricing our model identifies two effects that either counteract or reinforce each other depending on the debt maturity structure i firms set higher prices underinvest in market share if they have more debt and ii firms engage in dynamic risk shifting by setting lower higher prices if the current debt obligation will be higher lower in the next period than in the present period using a unique dataset of owner managed hotels in austrian ski resorts we provide empirical evidence of both effects

debt and communications technology diffusion retrospective evidence this study has evaluated the relationship between debt in the capital structure of firms and the dynamics of broadband and digital technology adoption in the united states based on a large dataset on local exchange carriers in the united states over a contemporary historical fourteen year period from 1988 to 2001 using treatment effects modeling the impact of debt in impacting the levels of firms broadband deployment has been found to be negative and significant the primary source of debt in the sector has been in the form of arm s length corporate bonds and the assumptions of the monitoring hypothesis associated with such debt that lenders in the face of information and collective actions problems might not be able to control managers and hence invest less in highly technology intensive situations are supported by the data additionally the data set has been split into separate sets for two periods one between 1988 and 1995 for the period before the telecommunications act of 1996 came into force and the other set between 1996 and 2001 and the results have stayed consistent a test of the coefficients between the two periods has shown that the negative impact of leverage on broadband deployment has become stronger after the introduction of competition in the sector and this has suggested that the change in the institutional logics between the two periods has been of material impact in influencing lenders perceptions

how democracy affects growth abstract this paper introduces a new methodology to examine the empirical relationship between democracy and economic growth democratic institutions are assumed to affect growth through a series of channels we specify and estimate a full system of equations determining growth and the channel variables results suggest that democracy fosters growth by improving the accumulation of human capital and less robustly by lowering income inequality on the other hand democracy hinders growth by reducing the rate of physical capital accumulation and less robustly by raising the ratio of government consumption to gdp once all of these indirect effects are accounted for the overall effect of democracy on economic growth is moderately negative our results indicate that democratic institutions are responsive to the demands of the poor by expanding access to education and lowering income inequality but do so at the expense of physical capital accumulation

the sampling error in estimates of mean variance efficient portfolio weights this paper presents an exact finite sample statistical procedure for testing hypotheses about the weights of mean variance efficient portfolios the estimation and inference procedures on efficient portfolio weights are performed in the same way as for the coefficients in an ols regression ols t and f statistics can be used for tests on efficient weights and when returns are multivariate normal these statistics have exact t and f distributions in a finite sample using 20 years of data on 11 country stock indexes we find that the sampling error in estimates of the weights of a global efficient portfolio is large

fiscal effects of the voter initiative in the first half of the twentieth century abstract this paper compares the fiscal policy of initiative and noninitiative states in the first half of the twentieth century states with initiatives had higher combined state and local expenditure after controlling for income and other demographics but a lower ratio of state to local expenditure this together with existing evidence from later in the century suggests that the voter initiative does not have a consistent effect on the overall size of state and local government however it does systematically lead to more decentralized expenditure

risks and financing decisions in the energy sector an empirical investigation using firm level data using a sample of 102 uk energy firms over the period 1981 2009 this paper empirically examines the effects of uncertainty on firms leverage decisions the results indicate that both firms specific and macroeconomic uncertainty have negative sizeable and statistically significant impacts on the uk energy sector firms target leverage the results also indicate that the profitability of energy firms plays an important role in uncertainty leverage relationship by changing the total effect of uncertainty on leverage while more profitable firms appear to reduce their leverage by a relatively large amount in response to increased macroeconomic uncertainty they are less likely to be affected by firm specific uncertainty these results suggest that stability in macroeconomic conditions and business activity is important to the stability of the capital structure of firms in the energy sector which would in turn be conducive to stability in their investments and production

industry characteristics and financial risk contagion this article proposes a new measure of tail risk spillover the conditional coexceedance ccx defined as the number of joint occurrences of extreme negative returns in an industry conditional on an extreme negative return in the financial sector the empirical application provides evidence of significant volatility and tail risk spillovers from the financial sector to many real sectors in the u s economy from 2001 to 2011 these spillovers increase in crisis periods the ccx in a given sector is positively related to its amount of debt financing and negatively related to its valuation and investment therefore real economy sectors which require relatively high debt financing and whose value and investment activity are relatively lower are prime candidates for stock price volatility and depreciation in the wake of a financial sector crisis evidence also suggests that the higher the industry s degree of competition the stronger the tail risk spillover from the financial sector

do industry level analyses improve forecasts of financial performance prior research documents mean reversion in firm profitability and growth under the implicit assumption that profitability and growth of all firms revert to a common benchmark at the same rate however a large body of academic research suggests that there are systematic interindustry differences e g industry barriers to entry that differentially affect firm performance based on industry membership we evaluate the relative forecast accuracy of mean reverting models at the industry and economywide levels and find that industry specific models are generally more accurate in predicting firm growth but not profitability

the effect of taxes and depreciation on corporate investment and financial leverage this paper provides an analysis of the effect of corporate and personal taxes on the firm s optimal investment and financing decisions under uncertainty it extends the deangelo aad masulis capital structure model by endogenizing the firm s investment decision the authors results indicate that when investment is allowed to adjust optimally the existing predictions about the relationship between investment related and debt related tax shields must be modified in particular the authors show that increases in investment related tax shields due to changes in the corporate tax code are not necessarily associated with reductions in leverage at the individual firm level in cross sectional analysis firms with higher investment related tax shields normalized by expected earnings need not have lower debt related tax shields normalized by expected earnings unless all firms utilize the same production technology differences in production technologies across firms may thus explain why the empirical results of recent cross sectional studies have not conformed to the predictions of deangelo and masulis

the limitations of industry concentration measures constructed with compustat data implications for finance research industry concentration measures calculated with compustat data which cover only the public firms in an industry are poor proxies for actual industry concentration these measures have correlations of only 13 with the corresponding u s census measures which are based on all public and private firms in an industry also only when u s census measures are used is there evidence consistent with theoretical predictions that moreconcentrated industries which should be more oligopolistic are populated by larger and fewer firms with higher price cost margins further the significant relations of compustatbased industry concentration measures with the dependent variables of several important prior studies are not obtained when u s census measures are used one of the reasons for this occurrence is that compustat based measures proxy for industry decline overall our results indicate that product markets research that uses compustat based industry concentration measures may lead to incorrect conclusions jel g10 g30 l10 a growing number of studies that consider the effects of product markets on financial economics related phenomena use industry concentration measures calculated with compustat data which cover only the public firms in an industry these studies examine issues related to asset pricing hou and robinson 2006 informed trading tookes 2008 idiosyncratic stock return volatility gaspar and massa 2006 mergers and acquisitions song and walkling 2000 fee and thomas 2004 shahrur 2005 corporate governance defond and park 1999 engel hayes andwang2003 rennie2006 karuna2007 capitalstructure lang and stulz 1992 kaleand shahrur 2007 corporate disclosurepolicy

empirical constitutional economics onward and upward abstract empirical constitutional economics has made a huge leap forward over the last decade interesting insights into the effects of constitutions have been discovered rather than summarizing the state of the art this paper identifies some of the current shortcomings and proposes a number of extensions it calls for recognizing additional constitutional institutions as explanatory variables as well as the incorporation of additional dependent variables its major emphasis is however on calling for the next logical step in this field namely to endogenize constitutions

the influence of direct democracy on the shadow economy we analyze both theoretically and empirically the influence of direct democratic institutions on the size and development of shadow economies our model suggests that as the extent of direct democracy increases implemented fiscal policies more nearly reflect the preferences of citizens and so reduce their incentives to operate in the informal sector this theory implies a negative relationship between the extent of direct democracy and the size of the country s shadow economy we also theorize that direct democracy has a greater effect in reducing the informal sector when the former is at low or intermediate values and when the electoral system is characterized by a larger district magnitude an empirical investigation of a sample of 57 democracies confirms our model s predictions

product market competition and credit risk abstract this study theoretically and empirically investigates effects of product market competition on credit risk we first develop a real options based structural model in a homogeneous oligopoly and show that credit spreads are positively related to the number of firms in an industry the disparity of firm size in an industry is relevant to both product market competition and credit risk and we therefore extend the model to an asymmetric duopoly case in particular we demonstrate that credit spreads of relatively small large firms within an industry are positively negatively related to herfindahl hirschman index and the relative firm size in an industry is an important determinant of credit risk the models implications are empirically scrutinized by a reduced form hazard model and generally supported by performing out of sample analyses the results demonstrate that firm size together with the interaction terms between intra industry firm size dummies and competition intensity can effectively predict default

do rivals enhance your credit conditions abstract in a model where firms rely on bank financing to build capacity put up specialized productive assets as collateral and then compete a la cournot we introduce a probability of default we investigate how the number of competitors affects the equilibrium amount of bank credit and derive conditions under which an inverted u shaped relationship occurs on the one hand more competitors enhance the resale value of collateralized productive assets on the other hand more competitors shrink firms profits and the resulting income that can be pledged to banks we then extend the analysis to firms outside the cournot industry that are willing to buy productive assets in liquidation and show that the equilibrium bank credit becomes monotonically decreasing in the number of competitors

investment efficiency and product market competition does more competition lead to more information production and greater investment efficiency this question is largely unexplored in the finance literature this article provides both a model and a series of extensive empirical tests the model features a 2 stage bayesian game in differentiated products market competition we find that competition causes firms to acquire less information and investments to become more inefficient relative to a first best case with the same market structure empirically the panel regression analysis provides strong support for the theory and shows that investment is more efficient in concentrated industries

labor protection and leverage this paper exploits inter temporal variations in employment protection across countries and finds that rigidities in labor markets are an important determinant of firms capital structure decisions over the 1985 2007 period we find that reforms increasing employment protection are associated with a 187 basis point reduction in leverage we interpret this finding to suggest that employment protection increases operating leverage crowding out financial leverage this result is robust across measures of employment protection and leverage and does not appear to be due to pre treatment differences between treated and control firms omitted variables unobserved changes in regional economic conditions and reverse causality heterogeneous treatment effects are consistent with our economic intuition we find that the negative effect is more pronounced in firms that are subject to frequent hiring and firing

pricing exit and location decisions of firms evidence on the role of debt and operating efficiency abstract we compare pricing and exit decisions of discounters across the business cycle cities containing high debt and or low efficiency firms display higher prices during non recession years during recessions prices increase in cities with less efficient incumbents but decrease in cities with a mix of high and low debt firms high debt firms are more likely to exit cities with lower prices and high debt exiting firms are more likely to be efficient apparently low debt firms strategically lower prices during recessions to force exit of efficient financially constrained rivals weaker competitors face another cost new entrants locate closer

mood fluctuations projection bias and volatility of equity prices this paper focuses on the potential e2ects of small uctuations in investors subjective preferences speci5cally their discount factors and attitudes towards risk on the volatility of equity prices we brie y summarize some of the arguments and evidence regarding the uctuations in subjective preferences our analysis indicates that such uctuations may have signi5cant implications for understanding the volatility of the prices of 5nancial assets we derive a closed form expression for equilibrium equity prices and use this expression to map the uctuations in investors subjective preferences to the uctuations in equity prices our analysis suggests that small uctuations in the discount factor have potentially large e2ects on the latter for example if the standard deviation of the uctuations in the discount factor is of the order of 1 10th of one percent then this by itself can induce a 3 4 standard deviation in the uctuations in equity prices the uctuations in the attitude towards risk have a smaller but nevertheless non negligible e2ect we present the intuition underlying our conclusions c 2002 published by elsevier science b v

a component based approach to discounting for natural resource damage assessment abstract the paper proposes a component based approach to guide the choice of the social discount rate in natural resources damage assessment where time and discounting are key features it is a multi rate discounting scheme which draws on concepts from dual rate and time declining approaches each damage component is discounted at a component specific constant rate related to its time trajectory assuming a normatively defined declining schedule of rates as a starting reference components with longer time profiles generally represented by welfare losses are discounted at lower rates than short term damage components mainly remedial costs the rationale behind this choice is that the longer the duration of the damage component the higher the related nonincident specific uncertainty on the resource values and the more relevant the equity issues when estimating the total damage the resulting implicit average discount rate depends on the duration of each component and its relative relevance in the total damage in each moment from an operational point of view anchoring the rates to government prescriptions would support the robustness of the damage estimates in a court of law whereas the dual based environmental discount rate is based on ad hoc assumptions that are more difficult to justify

compensating for environmental damages this paper examines a situation in which a decision maker determines the appropriate compensation that should be awarded for a given amount of ecological damage the compensation can take the form of either or both monetary and environmental units to meet three goals i minimisation of the cost associated with the compensation ii no aggregate welfare loss and iii minimal environmental compensation requirement the findings suggest that in some cases providing both monetary and environmental compensation can be the cost minimising option minimal compensation constraints can increase total compensation costs but reduce individual gains and losses relative to the initial situation that arise from heterogeneous tradeoffs between income and environmental quality

the case for diminishing marginal existence values abstract this study addresses the debate over sensitivity of existence values measured by contingent valuation to scope tests we reconcile much of the debate within one theoretical model if marginal wtp for existence goods is diminishing then a study that tested for sensitivity to scope over a range for which marginal wtp is high would be more likely to detect sensitivity to scope than a study that focused on a range for which marginal wtp is much lower an empirical model demonstrates this point for existence value of remote wilderness parks these results have significant implications for future contingent valuation work

bankruptcy costs and the theory of oligopoly this paper examines the relationship between financial decisions and output decisions in oligopolistic markets assuming a duopoly market structure in which financial decisions and output decisions follow in sequence the authors analyze how bankrupt cy costs which are incurred when the firm is unable to meet current debt obligations affect the firm s behavior in output markets with fixed bankruptcy costs firms have an incentive to increase output le vels if they take on more debt proportional bankruptcy costs lead to a u shaped relationship between output and debt foresighted owners of firms are led to take into account the strategic output effects of financial structure when considering an optimal financial structure for the firm

exploring welfare implications of resource equivalency analysis in natural resource damage assessments abstract resource equivalency analysis rea has become the dominant method for calculating natural resource damages for biological injuries from pollution incidents this methodology compares resources lost as a result of an incident to benefits that can be gained from a habitat or wildlife restoration project compensation is evaluated in terms of resource services instead of market currency recently this approach has been questioned regarding its ability to provide adequate compensation based on economic welfare principles the following paper examines these critiques and develops a model to quantify the welfare implications of using rea when some of its implicit assumptions are violated we focus on the situation where compensatory restoration projects provide services that are comparable to those lost as a result of an incident we examine simulation scenarios where the public has heterogeneous preferences for resources and where resource values change over time using the hicks kaldor criterion we find that the traditional rea provides an acceptable approximation of aggregate compensation for a reasonably wide range of economic and biological parameter combinations

the spirits of capitalism and socialism the world values survey contains an item on ownership which is polled 200 times in 92 countries at the four waves of 1990 1995 2000 and 2005 these polls are developed into the cs score that measures the aggregate mass support for capitalism and socialism four hypotheses are advanced and tested to explain the wide variation in the 200 cs scores it is due to the cross country distribution of income and consequently the west stands out as the most capitalist minded area of the world institutions of the country such as legal quality the left right dimension in politics and cultural differences

losing sleep at the market the daylight saving anomaly reply motivated by the recent flurry of activity in sleep research this paper explores the connection between sleep disruptions following spring and fall clock shifts associated with daylight savings time and equity returns it is shown that the weekend effect in the form of the lower than expected friday to monday returns is particularly pronounced for the two weekends involving daylight savings clock changes this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

how does industry affect firm financial structure we examine the importance of industry to firm level financial and real decisions we find that in addition to standard industry fixed effects financial structure also depends on a firm s position within its industry in competitive industries a firm s financial leverage depends on its natural hedge its proximity to the median industry capital labor ratio the actions of other firms in the industry and its status as entrant incumbent or exiting firm financial leverage is higher and less dispersed in concentrated industries where strategic debt interactions are also stronger but a firm s natural hedge is not significant our results show that financial structure technology and risk are jointly determined within industries these findings are consistent with recent industry equilibrium models of financial structure copyright 2005 oxford university press