capitalization of government support in agricultural land prices what do we know abstract the objective of this paper is to provide an overview of existing literature both theoretically and empirically on the extent to which agricultural subsidies do translate into higher land values and rents and finally benefit landowners instead of agricultural producers our review shows that agricultural support policy instruments contribute to increasing the rental price of farmland and that the extent of this increase closely depends on the level of the supply price elasticity of farmland relative to those of other factors inputs on the one hand and on the range of the possibilities of factor input substitution in agricultural production on the other hand the empirical literature shows that land prices and rents have in general a significant positive and inelastic response to government support such inelastic response is thought to reflect the uncertain future of the farm programmes and in general studies have indicated that land prices are more responsive to government based returns than to market based returns

capital market segmentation and u s farm real estate pricing in this paper we present and test a segmented capital market equilibrium we extend the traditional capm by explicitly considering barriers to the flow of external equity capital into farm real estate markets the empirical results provide a plausible explanation as to why the traditional arbitrage based pricing models fail to explain equity pricing in farmland markets

formally testing the present value model of farmland prices this paper applies recent statistical developments in the study of stock market price movements to study the plausibility of the constant expected returns version of the present value model as an explanation of farmland prices using iowa farmland price and rent data over the 1921 86 sample period formal test results indicate that although farmland price and rent movements are highly correlated price movements are not consistent with the implications of this model there appear to be persistent predictable excess positive and or negative returns in the iowa farmland market

a comprehensive analysis of farmland value determination a county level analysis this study develops a comprehensive model of farmland value determination to analyze the effects of various economic variables such as net farm income government payments macroeconomic factors and demographic conditions on farmland values for the counties along the snake river valley in idaho land values net farm income and population show considerable variation among the counties therefore use of county level cross sectional and time series data helps to assess the impacts of various factors on land values more accurately the empirical results show that net farm income wheat yield population and credit availability have positive effects and property tax rates interest rates and debt to asset ratio have negative effects on farmland values

primal and dual capacity utilization an application to productivity measurement in the u s automobile industry capacity utilization measures have traditionally been constructed as indexes of actual as compared to potential output this potential or capacity output y can be represented within an economic model of the firm as the tangency between the short and long run average cost curves economic theoretical measures of capacity utilization cu can then be characterized as y y where y is the realized level of output these quantity or primal cu measures allow for economic interpretation they provide explicit inference as to how changes in exogenous variables affect cu additional information for analyzing deviations from capacity production can be obtained by assessing the dual cost of the gap in this article the definitions and representations of primal output and dual cost cu measures are formalized within a dynamic model of a monopolistic firm as an illustration of this approach to characterizing cu measures a model is estimated for the u s automobile industry 1959 1980 and primal and dual cu

an econometric decomposition of dairy output growth fixed effects production functions and stochastic production frontiers are estimated and used to decompose dairy farm output growth into technological progress technical efficiency and increased input use or the size effect unbalanced panel data for ninety six vermont dairy farmers for the 1971 84 period are utilized the results show a 2 5 average annual increase in milk output about 56 of this growth is attributed to the size effect and the remaining 44 to productivity growth technological progress contributed about 94 to total productivity growth while improvements in technical efficiency accounted for only 6

cash rents and land values in u s agriculture a firm level land valuation model is deduced which depends on the expected growth rate in net cash returns to land inflation expectations and property income and capital gains taxes it is then aggregated to obtain an aggregate two sector land valuation model that model is then estimated for twenty four individual states for the period 1960 81 in addition a pooled cross sectional regression model is estimated combining the twenty four state data the model results demonstrate that significant state differences exist in the land market and that in many states agricultural land values are influenced by nonagricultural demand for land

the transfer efficiency and trade effects of direct payments all the different ways governments use to provide financialsupport to farmers can potentially distort trade and reduce net economic welfare however there are some types of support that are less trade distorting and more efficient than others this article reports the results of an analysis that examined different policy measures providing support to crop producers to rank them in terms of their effects on a selection of indicators with a particular focus on trade distortion and income transfer efficiency 1 we begin with an analysis of the differences in policy impacts among the three main categories of support provided to crop producers in oecd countries market price support payments based on land use and payments based on use of purchased inputs oecd 2001c that analysis is based on a two region model of equilibrium in the world market for a representative crop analytical solutions to this modelare devel oped to compare the production trade and income effects of the different support measures following procedures used in cahill and in moro and sckokai comparisons are of impact ratios using market price support as the reference category these ratios measure the effect on production trade or farm income of a given joe dewbre jesus anton and wyatt thompson are economists in the agricultural directorate of the organization for economic cooperation and development where the underlying analysis was undertaken the views expressed are our own and not necessarily those of the oecd secretariat or its member countries we thank our secretariat colleagues ken ash carmel cahill wilfrid legg and michele patterson for helpful comments on an earlier draft and stephane guillot for computer programming assistance this article was presented in a principal paper session at the aaea annualmeeting chicago il august 2001 the articl es in these sessions are not subjected to the journal s standard refereeing process 1

assessing the influence of direct payments on the rental value of agricultural land economic theory suggests that coupled and decoupled direct payments have different impacts on agricultural rental values because of the different production responses associated with these payments this study investigates the impact of both coupled and decoupled eu cap direct payments on rental values in northern ireland using panel data taken from the farm business survey for the period from 1994 to 2002 theoretically agricultural land rents are a function of expected market returns and expected associated direct payments the unobservable nature of expected returns means that actual market returns must be used as a proxy for the former in the empirical specification as a consequence the problem of bias due to expectation error arises using a gmm technique to take account of this problem the results of this study show that the impact of cap direct payments on rental values depends on the type of payment and on the nature of the production characteristics of the associated agricultural commodity

estimation of technical efficiency using flexible functional form and panel data this article presents an econometric model capable of accommodating a nonradial measure of input specific technical inefficiency and suggests an estimation technique that reduces dependency on distributional assumptions on inefficiency it also makes use of the demand system derived from a flexible cost function and imposes concavity restrictions as required by economic theory panel data on 12 finnish foundry plants are used to estimate technical efficiency of labor and energy for each of these plants

the inconsistency of land values land rents and capitalization formulas this paper examines relationships that exist between farm income land values and capital asset pricing theory using two commonly referenced data sets it is shown that land prices and land rents do not have the same time series representations a necessary condition for the simple capital asset pricing theory to hold this suggests that a fundamental rethinking of the way in which land prices are viewed and modeled is needed more complex models that allow for rational bubbles risk aversion and future shifts in government policy or commodity prices may be required

effects of farm size education and off farm income on productive efficiency of dairy farmers in utah a stochasitc frontier approach this study is primarily concerned with investigating the technical allocative and scale inefficiency of owner operators of dairy farms in utah a stochastic production frontier has been applied to analyze these inefficiencies the results indicate that there is positive association between years of education and productivity of labor and capital productivity is also found to be negatively related to off farm income regarding the effects of farm size on efficiency it is found that large farms are the most efficient of all sizes considered separate estimates of technical allocative and scale inefficiencies indicate that large and medium sized farms are technically more efficient than small farms large farms on average are found to be performing much better than medium sized and small farms so far as allocative and scale inefficiency are concerned copyright 1989 by mit press

the effects of potential land development on agricultural land prices abstract we conduct a national scale analysis of the determinants of agricultural land values the theoretical basis for the study is a spatial city model with stochastic returns to future land development the empirical model of agricultural land prices is estimated with a cross section on approximately three thousand counties in the contiguous us the results provide evidence that option values associated with irreversible and uncertain land development are capitalized into current farmland values for each county we decompose the current agricultural land value into components measuring rents from agricultural production and rents from future land development

agricultural land values and the value of rights to future land development we investigate the inuence of fu ture land development on current agricultural land values from a theoretical model of land markets we derive a reduced form expression for agricultural land values in terms of observable variables this result dictates the speci cation of our econometric model and we nd strong sup port for the model in an application to new york state the estimated model together with a spa tial interpolation algorithm is used to generate a surface of estimated development rights values for orange county this approach overcomes several problems that arise with the use of stan dard appraisal methods to value conservation easements jel q24

boom bust cycles and ricardian rent north american agriculture has been characterized by many as a boom bust industry for example between 1973 and 1983 prairie farmers experienced the most prosperous period of grain farming ever known in western canada had the golden age finally arrived for prairie agriculture prosperity came to a grinding halt in the mid 1980s and in the late 1980s prairie grain farmers entered into one of the worst economic situ

the market for land and the impact of farm programs on farm numbers if a land price is to be observed there must be trades of land if the aggregate quantity of land in agriculture is fixed those trades must be among farmers this paper presents a model in which farmers of differing ability trade land among themselves the model is used to evaluate the impact of farm programs a demand enhancement program a price support program a land retirement program an income subsidy program on output price land price and number of farmers effects of these programs depend on conditions that require empirical evaluation preliminary evidence suggests that some standard tools of farm policy have the effect of reducing farm numbers

an analysis of growth of u s farmland prices 1963 82 increases in expected inflation or real growth in net rental income to land have been proposed as alternative explanations of the dramatic real growth in u s farmland prices in the 1970s in this paper the effect of inflation is shown to be theoretically ambiguous an empirical analysis using u s and international farmland prices suggests that most of the real land price growth can be explained by real growth in net rental income to land increases in expected inflation have had a negative effect on real land prices but the effect of inflation has been comparatively small

the structure of technology in brazilian sugarcane production 1975 87 an application of a modified symmetric generalized mcfadden cost function sugarcane based ethanol has become a primary automotive fuel in brazil over the past 15 years because sugarcane costs are over two thirds of the costs of ethanol production the economic efficiency of this renewable petroleum substitute hinges on the structure of technology in sugarcane production in this paper a modified symmetric generalized mcfadden sgm cost function for sugarcane is estimated and the presence of technical change and economies of scale are investigated the original sgm proposed by diewert and wales 1987 is modified to allow for fixed factors of production this allows the cost function to be applied to processes which have fixed factors the results suggest that there is no empirical evidence of economies of scale and very little technical change only in the north of brazil the implications for the future economic efficiency of this petroleum substitute are discussed

the impacts of different farm programs on cash rents county level annual observations for iowa from 1996 through 2000 were used to measure the impacts of farm program payments on cash rental rates the econometric analysis explicitly incorporates spatial autocorrelation cash rental rates were found to increase by almost one dollar per acre for each additional dollar per acre paid for market loss assistance and production flexibility contracts whereas conservation reserve program payments appear to exert no effect on cash rental rates a counterintuitive finding that warrants further examination is the small but negative impact of deficiency payments on cash rental rates

quasi fixed inputs in u s and japanese manufacturing a generalized leontief restricted cost function approach in this paper a generalized leontief variable cost function is develope d which permits analytical derivation of steady state levels of quasi fixed inputs and capacity output and does not require specification of a numeraire input this framework is then used to evaluate the fa ctor demand patterns of japanese and u s manufacturing based on bot h one quasi fixed capital input and two quasi fixed capital and la bor input specifications and both static and dynamic optimization t he findings provide evidence of considerable flexibility of demand re sponses in japan which may have contributed to japan s relatively st rong economic performance in the volatile 1970s copyright 1988 by mit press

farmland accumulation and prices a model of farmland accumulation is developed to study factors influencing u s farmland values this model stresses the manner in which credit is allocated for land purchases to secure necessary loans for additional land to expand farm size the farmer provides as collateral his net accumulated wealth thus land acquisitions are made to increase profits and to provide leverage for further land expansion besides income and consumption the level of accumulated debt is one of the main determinants of farmland prices derived demand for farmland is developed and the pricing equation for farmland is estimated as part of a structural equation model

technology and efficiency in a panel of italian dairy farms an sgm restricted cost function approach this article employs a short term specification of the symmetric generalised mcfadden sgm cost function capable of accommodating quasi fixed factors and variable returns temporary equilibrium and scale economies are investigated while maintaining the consistency of the estimated model with microeconomic theory and approximation properties it also makes use of a two step procedure to estimate first the technology parameters and then time varying efficiency at farm level no distributional assumptions are required on efficiency as we consider a fixed effect model a balanced panel of italian dairy farms during the years from 1980 to 1992 serves as the case study the results suggest a rigid productive structure during the pre and post quota period moreover italian milk producers are found to exhibit considerable excess capacity and rather low input technical efficiency

estimation of output and input technical efficiency using a flexible functional form and panel data the farrell 1957 concept of technical efficiency can be measured in two ways denoted output and input technical efficiency the empirical literature does not distinguish between the two measures and confusion exists regarding the required restrictions on technology for the specification of either measure with panel data the authors show how both types of efficiency when treated as fixed effects are to be specified in the context of a translog cost system technical efficiency enters the share equations only in the output case when homotheticity is not imposed the authors estimate their cost systems using panel data on u s airlines copyright 1994 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

efficiency measurement in swedish dairy farms an application of rotating panel data 1976 88 this paper introduces a new specification of technical inefficiency in panel data models first the overall technical inefficiency is decomposed into a persistent component and a residual component second a multistep procedure is used to estimate the parameters of the production function as well as persistent and residual technical inefficiency the advantage of this multistep procedure is that the parameter estimates are robust to distributional assumptions on the error components distributional assumptions are required in the final stage to estimate the residual component of technical inefficiency the model is used to examine technical efficiency in swedish dairy farms during the period 1976 to 1988

determinants differentiation and development of short term marginal costs in dairy production an empirical analysis for selected regions of the eu this work provides evidence on the determinants cost differentiation and development of short term marginal costs of dairy farms in important production regions of the european union the empirical study is based on the estimation of multi input multi output symmetric generalized mcfadden cost functions using an unbalanced panel data set of the european farm accountancy data network the results show considerable regional differences in the impact of the outputs input prices and fixed factors on marginal costs strong evidence can be found that marginal costs decrease over time and is further underlined by the development of derived regional aggregated short term supply curves marginal cost elasticities and correlation coefficients validate the hypotheses that a high degree of farm specialization large milk output and low milk prices are associated with lower marginal costs furthermore the marginal cost spread in the data sample is analyzed we show that milk output milk yield herd size labor input and fodder production can be attributed to significant marginal cost differentiation of farms whereas for crop and animal output grassland stock of other animals and depreciation only minor differentiation can be found

understanding farmland price changes this paper develops a structural model of land prices which includes the multidimensional effects of inflation on capital erosion savings return erosion and real debt reduction as well as the effect of changes in the opportunity cost of capital the results show that inflation and changes in the real returns on capital are major explanatory factors in farmland price swings in addition to returns to farming additionally the effects of credit market constraints and expectations schemes are considered explicitly in the analytical model

regulatory and economic solvency standards for internationally active banks abstract one of the most important policy issues for financial authorities is to decide at what level average capital charges should be set the decision may alternatively be expressed as the choice of an appropriate survival probability for representative banks over a horizon such as a year often termed a solvency standard this article sheds light on the solvency standards implied by current and possible future g10 bank regulation and on the economic solvency standard that banks choose themselves by their own capital setting decisions in particular we employ a credit risk model to show that the survival probability implied by the 1988 basel accord is between 99 0 and 99 9 we then demonstrate that if a new basel accord were calibrated to such a standard it would not represent a binding constraint on banks current operations since most banks employ a solvency standard higher than 99 9 to show this we employ a statistical analysis of bank ratings adjusted for the impact of official or other support as well as credit risk model calculations lastly we advance a possible explanation for the conservative capital choices made by banks by showing that swap volumes are highly correlated with credit quality for given bank size this suggests that banks access to important credit markets like the swaps markets may provide a significant discipline in the choice of solvency standard

a reexamination of returns to scale density and technical progress in u s airlines the logic of protecting u s airlines from competition was initially founded on the belief that substantial economies of scale existed in the industry and that consumers would benefit through among other things regulation of fares regulation of service network and restrictions on entry and exit from the industry however studies 1 7 8 12 have undermined the faith in economic regulation by showing that economies of scale were minimal and competition would promote efficiency in a recent study caves christensen and tretheway 5 estimated returns to scale rts and returns to density rtd for u s airlines based on a panel dataset for 1970 1981 containing trunk and local service airlines they estimated rtd and rts from a translog cost function for airline services like many other applied economists working with translog cost functions they found that the neoclassical curvature or regularity conditions on the cost function are not satisified in almost half of the observations 105 out of 208 in general concavity property is satisfied in the neighborhood of the sample mean if it is chosen as the point of approximation for the cost function but not at points further from the mean recently diewert and wales 6 suggested alternative flexible functional forms which are globally concave in input prices if the concavity property is satisfied at only one point thus if the concavity property is violated imposition of it at a single point will make the function globally concave without destroying flexibility use of such functional forms can avoid violation of regularity conditions of the cost function at extreme points the objective of this paper is to estimate a model of airline costs along the lines of caves christensen and tretheway 5 however we extend their results in several ways first we consider a modest generalization of the symmetric generalized mcfadden sgm cost function developed by diewert and wales by including network and control variables in the airline cost function the sgm cost function is flexible and globally concave in input prices thus our estimates of parameters and measures of rts rtd and technical progress are based on a cost function which is globally concave second we estimate the system of input demand functions instead of the cost function and while estimating these input demand functions derived from the cost minimizing behavior of the airlines we incorporate firm and input specific effects these effects capture possible differences in production technologies among airlines third we intro

the evolution of farm programs and their contribution to agricultural land values the economic environment of agricultural producers has been influenced by formal u s agricultural policy for more than seventy years among the first pieces of new deal legislation proposed by incoming president franklin d roosevelt was a farm program designed to address declines in crop prices and net farm income key features of the agriculture act of 1933 included mandatory price support for specified commodities direct subsidy payments to farmers and supply controls farm programs once viewed as temporary and supplementary to agricultural earnings are increasingly viewed as permanent and of major proportion gardner examined the relationships between u s farm commodity programs and u s farm structure while others see sumner for concept evidence and implications have examined farm programs and specific crops gardner 2002 and weersink et al analyzed the effects of farm program programs upon land values these studies examined various aspects of agricultural policy including whether farm program payments have enhanced land prices and landowner wealth rather than the welfare of producers while it would seem logical that revenueenhancing farm programs would increase land values reliably estimating the magnitudes of farm program effects upon land values is an empirically challenging task both statistical and budgeting based methodologies have been used to estimate the share of land prices generated by farm program payments statistically based studies are complicated by the fact that both real per acre crop receipts

fads versus fundamentals in farmland prices we develop an approach to decompose farmland price time series into three uncorrelated components permanent fundamental component temporary fundamental component and nonfundamental component this decomposition is useful for studying the importance of fundamental versus nonfundamental factors in explaining farmland price behavior and the dynamic response of farmland prices to shocks to each of these components the approach is applied to annual iowa farmland prices over the 1922 94 sample period we find that fads and overreactions play important roles in explaining short run price behavior while long run price movements are explainable by permanent fundamental shocks

dairy farm efficiency measurement using stochastic frontiers and neoclassical duality this paper presents a stochastic efficiency decomposition model based on kopp and diewert s deterministic methodology the stochastic model is used to analyze technical economic and allocative efficiency for a sample of new england dairy farms the results suggest that mean economic efficiency for the farmers in the sample is about 70 and that on average there is little difference between technical 83 0 and allocative 84 6 efficiency analyses of the relationship between efficiency and four socioeconomic variables farm size education extension and experience reveal that despite some statistically significant associations efficiency levels are not markedly affected by these variables

short and long run adjustments in dairy production a profit function analysis a dual profit model is developed to analyse the structure of dairy technology using farm level data for vermont potential short and long run effects of milk price reductions on output supply input demand farm size and profitability are studied the observed levels of the quasi fixed inputs family labour and herd size are found to be significantly lower than their optimal or long run equilibrium values which is consistent with a continuing shift towards fewer and larger dairy farms the analysis suggests that lower milk prices threaten the short run survival of small and medium size farms and reduce the optimal farm size in the long run

the semiflexible almost ideal demand system abstract the concept of a semiflexible functional form is applied to the almost ideal ai demand system this yields a demand model that is more parsimonious than standard ones while preserving a degree of flexibility that satisfies the curvature property of concavity of the underlying expenditure function at least locally and that preserves the desirable properties of the ai model aggregation across consumers and nonlinearity of the engel curves the model is illustrated with an application to a relatively large demand system emphasizing food consumption

price support acreage controls and efficient redistribution this study is concerned with the combination of target price and acreage controls as the two major mechanisms of farm policy acreage controls are shown to enhance the efficiency of redistribution under a target price program more specifically this study demonstrates that if the traditional cobb douglas production function is assumed acreage controls do not enhance the efficiency of target price programs in the process of redistributing income to the farm sector the study proves that if the elasticity of substitution between land and all other inputs is less than one then the income redistributional costs are likely to be reduced moreover by using an empirical estimate of the elasticity of substitution and farm data for the time period 1984 88 this study demonstrates that acreage control programs have drastically reduced the deadweight losses associated with income redistribution flowing from target price programs these results lend strong support to the public choice notion that politicians favo

frontier production functions and technical efficiency a survey of empirical applications in agricultural economics abstract the modelling and estimation of frontier production functions has been an important area of econometric research during the last two decades forsund lovell and schmidt 1980 and schmidt 1986 present reviews of the concepts and models involved and cite some of the empirical applications which had appeared to their respective times of publication this paper seeks to update the econometric modelling of frontier production functions associated with the estimation of technical efficiency of individual firms a survey of empirical applications in agricultural economics is an important part of the paper

a symmetric normalized quadratic gnp function and the u s demand for imports and supply of exports this paper reports estimates of a gnp function for the united states using data covering most of the postwar period and it introduces a new functional form the symmetric normalized quadratic variable profit function which is a natural extension of recent work by diewert and wales this functional form allows convexity in prices and concavity in fixed inputs to be imposed globally empirical results indicate that the demand for imports is less price elastic than the supply exports that an increase in labor endowment favors trade and that a deterioration of the terms of trade mostly hurts labor

the effect of agricultural policy on farmland values the extent to which agricultural support programs have been capitalized into farmland prices has been examined in this study a present value land price model was developed which decomposes returns to the land base into its two possible sources farm production and government subsidies and allows the discount rates associated with these two income sources to vary the empirical results indicate that government payments are discounted less than marketbased returns in ontario thus government payments have been viewed as a more stable source of income to ontario farm operators during the last half century than market based returns

the impact of decoupled payments on farm choices conceptual and methodological challenges abstract in this paper we review the methodological framework for analysing decoupled payments in models of agricultural production market and technological uncertainty farm efficiency credit constraints farm household choices involving extra agricultural decisions policy uncertainty and long run impact of decoupling on investment and land values are the relevant issues that should be pursued by methodological and empirical analysis future research should refine the analysis of decoupled payments mainly trying to provide results that can be useful for policy simulation to bridge the gap between analysis at the individual level and sector policy models

negotiating reductions in agricultural support implications of technology and factor mobility this paper highlights the joint significance of agricultural technology and factor mobility in determining the impact of changing support policies the impact of across the board reductions in farm support on output exports employment and land values will vary systematically across countries depending on their relative reliance on export output and input subsidies furthermore considerable maneuvering room exists even after an aggregate reduction in support is agreed upon for example the aggregate u s producer subsidy equivalent could be reduced while leaving unchanged the demand for farm labor by shifting the mix of remaining subsidies toward inputs which are complementary

econometric modeling of the capitalization formula for farmland prices an econometric model is formulated to explain the dynamic behavior in farmland prices a second order rational distributed lag on net crop share rents received by landlords captures the dynamic movements of prices and performs well in conditional post sample forecasts the adjustment path of land prices in response to a perturbation in rents is a protracted dampened cycle the implicitly estimated tax free capitalization rate on rent associated with equilibrium land price is 4 0 neither the expected rate of inflation nor an exponential trend on rent expectations has a significant effect on land prices