effects of oil price shocks on the stock market performance do nature of shocks and economies matter the main focus of this study is to examine how oil price fluctuations influence the performance of stock markets this study used the causality approach developed by toda and yamamoto 1995 to explore the causality between oil prices and stock prices in the long run and their short term impact the generalized impulse response functions were applied to the monthly data in the period from january 1997 to july 2013 in this study to capture the different characteristics of oil refining exporting and importing three asian economies were examined the results indicate that the manner in which a market reacts to hikes in oil prices varies between different markets and periods this depends on differences in the oil characteristics of the economy and the nature of the shock in oil prices

the relationship between energy consumption structure economic structure and energy intensity in china this paper investigates the long run equilibrium relationships temporal dynamic relationships and causal relationships between energy consumption structure economic structure and energy intensity in china time series variables over the periods from 1980 to 2006 are employed in empirical tests cointegration tests suggest that these three variables tend to move together in the long run in addition granger causality tests indicate that there is a unidirectional causality running from energy intensity to economic structure but not vice versa impulse response analysis provides reasonable evidences that one shock of the three variables will cause the periods of destabilized that followed however the impact of the energy consumption structure shock on energy intensity and the impact of the economic structure shock on energy consumption structure seem to be rather marginal the findings have significant implications from the point of view of energy conservation and economic development in order to decrease energy intensity chinese government must continue to reduce the proportion of coal in energy consumption increase the utilization efficiency of coal and promote the upgrade of economic structure furthermore a full analysis of factors that may relate to energy intensity e g energy consumption structure economic structure should be conducted before making energy policies

imperfect information and dynamic conjectural variations this article analyzes oligopoly interaction in an environment where firms are imperfectly informed about the evolution of the market demand curve the analysis develops a two period cournot framework under the assumptions that demand shifts are positively serially correlated that firms never directly observe the demand curve and that firms never observe the previous quantity decisions of rivals firms do draw inferences about the position of the demand curve from past observations on prices consequently the current output of a firm will influence the current market price which will then influence rivals inferences about future demand the future output decisions of rivals will respond accordingly the theory predicts negative dynamic conjectural variations essentially a firm perceives that an increase in its output will lower the current market clearing price which will cause rival firms to think that the demand curve has shifted down and hence induce them to lower their outputs in the future

first mover disadvantages with private information we consider a leader follower game with output quantities as strategies so as to demonstrate the reduced advantages of the stackleberg leader in a stochastic environment with private information at the equilibrium the strategy of the leader reveals to the follower information about the demand in an attempt to signal low demand the leader contracts his output nevertheless unless the leader s information is infinitely noisy the follower can always correctly infer his signal we find a wide range of parameter values over which the follower is better off compared to the leader

unemployment equilibria and input prices theory and evidence from the united states the paper develops an efficiency wage model where input prices affect the equlibrium rate of unemployment we show that a simple framework based on only two prices the real price of oil and the real rate of interest is able to explain the main post war movements in the rate of u s joblessnss the equations do well in forecasting unemployment many out of sample and provide evidence that the oil price spike associated with iraq s invasion of kuweit appears to be a component of the mystery recession which followed

forecasting volatility of crude oil markets abstract this article investigates the efficacy of a volatility model for three crude oil markets brent dubai and west texas intermediate wti with regard to its ability to forecast and identify volatility stylized facts in particular volatility persistence or long memory in this context we assess persistence in the volatility of the three crude oil prices using conditional volatility models the cgarch and figarch models are better equipped to capture persistence than are the garch and igarch models the cgarch and figarch models also provide superior performance in out of sample volatility forecasts we conclude that the cgarch and figarch models are useful for modeling and forecasting persistence in the volatility of crude oil prices

endogenous price leadership and the strategic acquisition of information we model a differentiated bertrand duopoly in which a firm s earlier knowledge of market demand than its competitor results in endogenous price leadership with the information advantaged firm leading in such a setting with second mover advantage we then study the firms incentives to acquire information and analyze an information acquisition game both i neither firm acquiring information and ii one firm acquiring information can arise as subgame perfect equilibrium but both firms acquiring information is never an equilibrium outcome even if information is free information may have a negative value if it causes a change in the timing of price competition

acquisition and dissemination of information in imperfectly competitive markets i introduction does the market mechanism always generate incentives for the acquisition and dissemination of information about market conditions the efficiency of prices in aggregating and disseminating information has been extensively studied in competitive models of financial markets 1 an important result is the so called information paradox described by grossman and stiglitz 1980 according to which a revealing competitive equilibrium may fail to exist when the costs of acquiring information are small information problems are however as prevalent in product markets as they are in financial markets firms continually act to acquire information on market conditions such information is generally not solely of firm specific value but also of relevance to other firms hence there is a problem in how incentives for information acquisition among firms interact considering this problem naturally leads us to consider situations of imperfect competition rather than the competitive markets which might be more relevant for financial markets whether or not prices fully reflect the state of the market also has implications for macroeconomic models built on the presumption that prices do not fully adjust to all potentially available information recent attempts to explain why prices would not fully adjust to market conditions have focused on explicit costs either of acquiring information about market conditions see e g eden 1981 or adjusting prices see rotemberg 1986 we show here that information problems have significant effects on price adjustment due to the role prices play in disseminating information to illustrate the effects of strategic information transmission on the information content of prices we consider a static stackelberg model with two price setting firms producing a differentiated good this is the simplest conceivable setting where the price of one firm the leader may be used as an informative signal by another firm the follower and thus create a strategic problem of information dissemination to focus on the strategic interaction in the acquisition of information we disregard the explicit costs of adjusting prices once firms are assumed to possess market power it is possible that a firm will try to influence the information revealed by its actions and hence the information content of its prices in an attempt to distort the information being disseminated a firm may bias its price decision which may not only affect profits but also its decisions regarding information acquisition we consider here an information problem created by demand conditions which are subject to random shocks we endogenize the information structure by allowing both firms to acquire information on demand conditions prior to any price decisions information costs are fixed and possibly zero in so far as the leader s price decision is based on private information the follower may be able to infer information about demand for its good from the price chosen by the leader if the follower attempts to infer information from the price of the leader the leader has an incentive to mislead the follower by its choice of price 2 if the follower is rational it understands the leader s incentives and in the unique separating equilibrium is able to unravel the bias and correctly infer the information because the leader is rationally expected to bias its price relative to the price chosen if the firms shared the private information it cannot choose the unbiased price to avoid this bias the leader essentially has to be able to announce its information credibly at the same time as its price an action for which there is no obvious mechanism hence when information is private the leader has a biased price but the follower still infers the private information correctly considering pure strategy equilibria of the information acquisition game in the case of costless information we find that a pure strategy nash equilibrium need not exist although if one does exist only the leader acquires information

oil and the macroeconomy since world war ii all but one of the u s recessions since world war ii have been preceded typically with a lag of around three fourths of a year by a dramatic increase in the price of crude petroleum this does not mean that oil shocks caused these recessions evidence is presented however that even over the period 1948 72 this correlation is statistically significant and nonspurious supporting the proposition that oil shocks were a contributing factor in at least some of the u s recessions prior to 1972 by extension energy price increases may account for much of post opec macroeconomic performance

oil price fluctuations and singapore economy this study finds that the impact of an oil price shock on the singapore economy is marginal both impulse response and variance decomposition analysis provide reasonable grounds to believe that the impact only had an insignificant adverse effect on singapore s gross domestic product gdp inflation and unemployment rates further analysis on two oil vulnerability measures supports the finding the declining trend of oil intensity in singapore since 1989 and the declining shares of the singapore s expenditure on oil consumption as a percentage of its nominal gdp this study identifies however that the impact of an oil price shock on the singapore economy should not be considered negligible even though it is small

cross cultural interaction the international comparison fallacy international management studies have been based primarily on the comparison of managerial behavior in countries around the world often these studies have implied that business people behave similarly with their domestic colleagues as with their foreign counterparts in questioning that assumption this study tests whether intra cultural behavior accurately predicts cross cultural behavior using a negotiation simulation and a sample of 462 japanese american and canadian businesspeople behaviors in cross cultural negotiations were found to differ in some important ways from those in intra cultural negotiations

a two stage model of research and development with endogenous second mover advantages this paper describes a simple two stage model of research and development in which the winner of the research stage has the option of moving first in the development stage some unexpected results emerge in equilibrium the leader in the development stage invests less than each follower and is consequently least likely to collect the patent moreover the leader receives a lower expected payoff than each of the followers thus there are endogenous second mover advantages using a game of timing in which the identity of the stackelberg leader is determined to link the two stages i find that firms face quite different incentives in the research stage although the leader invests less than each follower in the research stage as well the leader enjoys higher expected revenue from the complete two stage game than does each follower the equilibrium is inefficient because there is a lag between the time at which research is completed and the time at which development is begun and because aggregate investment is inefficiently asymmetrically distributed across firms

managing across borders an empirical test of the bartlett and ghoshal 1989 organizational typology this paper reports an empirical test of the bartlett and ghoshal 1989 organizational typology some 131 senior executives of corporations with worldwide operations classified their organizations as being multinational global international or transnational in nature and evaluated their organizations configuration of assets and capabilities role of overseas operations and development and diffusion of knowledge results provide partial support for the typology as expected transnational corporations were least frequently reported by the respondents the hypothesized practices associated with multinational and global organizations were more consistent with the typology s predictions relative to those of the international and transnational types

interactions between energy and imports in singapore empirical evidence from conditional error correction models this study empirically tests for long run equilibrium relationship and the direction of causality between imports and energy consumption in singapore the results of the present study reveal that a long run equilibrium relationship exists between import growth and energy consumption growth in singapore by using bivariate systems imports of singapore converge to long term equilibrium levels by 79 9 percent speed of adjustment through the channel of energy growth furthermore the major finding of this study is that there are long and short term undirectional causalities that run from energy growth to import growth in singapore which denote that energy consumption in singapore is a catalyst for importing

are oil shocks inflationary asymmetric and nonlinear specifications versus changes in regime this paper identifies a structural break in core u s inflation phillips curves such that oil prices contributed substantially before 1981 but since that time pass through has been negligible this characterization is robust to a variety of re specifications and fits the data better than asymmetric and nonlinear oil price alternatives evidence does not support the hypotheses that declining energy intensity or deregulation of energy producing and consuming industries played an important role monetary policy did not itself become less accommodative of oil shocks but may have helped create a regime where inflation is less sensitive to price shocks more generally

price of oil and world inflation and recession new evidence shows that the commonly held assumption that the 1973 74 oil price increase directly affected us and world inflation and subsequent recession is consistent with the empirical data an extended lucas varro real income equation applied to the us united kingdom canada france germany italy japan and the netherlands gives mixed results partly because of price control and decontrol programs simulation experiments on the price control variable using us data finds strong effects further studies can be made when consistent international data is available for the 1979 80 period 18 references 4 figures 3 tables dck

impulse response analysis of cointegrated systems abstract impulse response or dynamic multiplier analysis of vector autoregressive systems with cointegrated variables is considered the asymptotic distribution of the responses estimated with johansen s 1988 maximum likelihood procedure is derived the results are illustrated with an analysis of a west german money demand system the investigation shows that a direct interpretation of the cointegration relations may be difficult or misleading thereby the virtue of impulse response analysis for applied work is illustrated

what happened to the oil price macroeconomy relationship abstract strong evidence is found that oil prices no longer granger cause many u s macroeconomic indicator variables in data after 1973 a number of potential explanations are explored that sample stability issues are responsible that oil prices are now endogenous and that linear and symmetric specifications misrepresent the form of the oil price interaction none of these hypotheses are supported by the data the opec price increases do appear to have had significant impacts while the effects of the price declines of the 1980s are smaller and harder to characterize these results have potentially important implications for the large body of research which utilizes oil prices as an instrumental or explanatory variable

contestable markets an uprising in the theory of industry structure presents a transcript of the presidential address delivered at the 94th meeting of the american economic association on december 29 1981 discussion of developments in the theory of industry structure welfare attributes of contestable markets behavior characteristics of oligopoly equilibrium intertemporal vulnerability to inefficient entry ebsco

oil price movements and macroeconomic performance evidence from twenty six oecd countries abstract this study investigates the relationship between oil price movements and macroeconomic aggregates such as gross domestic product gdp consumer prices cpi and unemployment for oecd countries to do this second generation econometric methods have been employed to panel data including panel unit root tests panel cointegration tests and panel long run models panel unit root tests suggest that oil prices plus selected macroeconomic aggregates in oecd countries are non stationary at levels but become stationary at first differences in the existence of multiple structural breaks five structural break points have successfully been investigated in the series of this study during panel unit root and panel cointegration tests durbin h panel co integration tests confirm that there is a long term relationship between oil prices and those macroeconomic aggregates on the other hand results of this study reveal that the price of oil exerts statistically and negatively significant impacts on gdp cpi and unemployment in the case of oecd countries in general

competitive pricing in markets with different overhead costs concealment or leakage of cost information this paper experimentally investigates how leaders and followers in a duopoly set prices for two product markets that have different overhead costs in a fully crossed two by two design we manipulate the participants private cost report quality as either low or high representing the extent to which these reports reveal that product markets have different overhead costs we show that when only the leader is given a high quality cost report private cost information of higher quality is better incorporated into market prices that are observable to participants both the leader and follower improve in profits and their prices better reflect the differences in overhead costs because the follower infers information from the leader s prices information leakage in contrast when only the follower receives a high quality cost report the leader s profits and prices do not improve this occurs because the follower conceals cost information when the leader has a low quality cost report

overt employment discrimination in mnc affiliates home country cultural and institutional effects using job announcements posted by mnc subsidiaries in taiwan and thailand we investigated the effects of mnc home country cultural and institutional forces on the use of employment gender and age discriminatory criteria in host countries where anti discrimination legislation was absent we examined the cultural effects with composite measures taken from the work of hofstede and schwartz the effects of the existence of anti age and anti gender discrimination employment legislation in an mnc home country were also assessed to control for institutional factors logit analysis shows that mnc home country culture and institutional environment can have a strong impact on the use of discriminatory criteria by mncs in host countries at least those lacking protective legislation specifically mncs based in countries that have existing and effective age and gender discrimination laws and have more individualist and less masculine cultures are less likely to engage in at least overt gender based and age based discrimination

impact of oil price shocks on output inflation and the real exchange rate evidence from selected asean countries this article analyses the impact of oil price shocks on real output inflation and the real exchange rate in thailand malaysia singapore the philippines and indonesia asean 5 using a structural var model the cointegration tests indicate that the macroeconomic variables of these countries are cointegrated and share common trends in the long run the impulse response functions reveal that oil price fluctuations do not impact the asean 5 economies in the long run and much of its effect is absorbed within five to six quarters the variance decomposition results further assert that with a few exceptions oil price shocks do not explain a significant variation in any of the variables under consideration we also identify a very unique pattern of response to oil price fluctuations between malaysia and singapore and between the philippines and thailand the pairs exhibit a high degree of similarity in their responses they do not share any commonalities across the group

influences on human resource management practices in multinational corporations a study of human resource management practices in 249 u s affiliates of foreign based multinational corporations mncs shows that in general affiliate hrm practices closely follow local practices with differences among specific practices the degree of similarity of local practices is significantly influenced by the method of founding dependence on local inputs the presence of expatriates and the extent of communication with the parent in addition sharp differences are revealed among affiliates of canadian japanese and european mncs suggesting strong country effects together these findings support the view of mncs as composed of differentiated practices which in turn are shaped by forces for local isomorphism and for internal consistency

when the cat s away a content analysis of mnc overseas recruitment print ads this study examines discrimination in the overseas recruitment print ads of multinational national corporations mncs in a lax regulatory environment singapore institutionalization theory suggests that in a weakly regulated environment mnc affiliates would tend to adopt the less stringent requirements with the lack of a strong legal framework in the host country the home country s legal and cultural imperatives would be more salient suggesting differences in discrimination as a function of home country imperatives some 1122 recruitment print ads of u s u k and japanese affiliates of mncs were examined while discrimination was found in the print ads of all organizations u s affiliates were least discriminatory followed by japan and u k affiliates when singapore firms were included they were found to be least discriminatory however singapore firms became more discriminatory when the request for a recent photograph was considered in the discrimination index implications of the findings are discussed and suggestions for future research advanced

an analysis of u s multinationals recruitment practices in mexico the frequency of discriminatory language in job advertisements placed by u s multinational corporations operating in mexico was compared with that of mexican companies using content analysis a sample of 300 ads placed by companies from each culture was analyzed and coded by two groups of coders to calculate the frequency of discriminatory language in the job ads with respect to age gender physical appearance and marital status results of a chi square analysis revealed that u s multinationals firms in mexico utilize discriminatory language in job ads less frequently in the categories of age gender and marital status this result suggests that the legal and cultural framework of the country of origin of u s enterprises in mexico may be influencing their actual recruitment practice in mexico and in turn help them in setting a positive example of non discrimination in recruitment among their mexican counterparts

macroeconomic performance of oil price shocks outlier evidence from nineteen major oil related countries regions abstract as a special energy commodity oil price shocks can affect not only the energy market but also the performance of the macroeconomy this research provides complementary explanations for nineteen major oil related countries regions macroeconomic effects caused by unexpected oil price changes it focuses on the macroeconomic performance of oil price shocks from outlier perspective investigating the inner hidden factors of co movements between oil price shocks and macroeconomy three methods called empirical covariance ec method robust covariance rc method and one class support vector machine svm method are used in the outlier detection empirical results show that a one class svm method has the best environmental adaptability for detecting the outlier performance of the co movements between oil price shocks and macroeconomy followed by ec and rc methods b according to the time axis the outlier performances of gross domestic production consumer price index and unemployment rate are all concentrated in 2005 2014 which is highly consistent with the oil price shock process and c according to the spatial axis countries four categories with similar outlier performances are obtained outlier performance of macroeconomy of oil related country region in lower levels seems to be worse than that of the country region in higher levels which can be attributed to more attentions paid by higher leveled oil related countries on the oil price shock response system to relieve the severe macroeconomic impacts caused by oil price shocks

the effects of oil price shocks on asian exchange rates evidence from quantile regression analysis abstract this paper investigates the effects of oil price shocks on asian exchange rates we employ quantile regression analysis and allow for structural breaks and asymmetry our results indicate that positive and negative oil price shocks have asymmetrical effects on exchange rate returns that vary in significance size and sign throughout the distribution of exchange rate returns the impact of oil price shocks is also affected by market conditions bearish and bullish currency markets during bullish markets in domestic currencies at lower quantiles of currency movements in terms of u s dollar exchange rates rising oil prices cause further appreciation for indonesia korea the philippines and thailand currencies during bearish markets in the domestic currencies at higher quantiles of exchange rate movements in terms of u s dollar exchange rates rising falling oil price causes further currency depreciation for indonesia malaysia thus currencies respond differently to oil price shocks under extreme bullish or bearish currency market conditions and the impact of rising or falling oil prices on foreign exchange markets can vary by country and market conditions

oil and the macroeconomy when prices go up and down an extension of hamilton s results in an important paper hamilton 1983 demonstrated a strong correlation between oil price changes and gross national product growth in u s data however his study pertained to a period in which all the large oil price movements were upward and thus it left unanswered the question whether the correlation persists in periods of price decline moreover the price variable he used was somewhat distorted by price controls in the 1970s this note investigates whether hamilton s results continue to hold when the sample is extended to include the recent oil market collapse and the oil price variable is corrected for the effects of price controls particular attention is given to the possibility of asymmetric responses to oil price increases and decreases as suggested in the structural employment literature loungani 1986 davis 1987 hamilton 1988 like hamilton i based my investigation on the gnp equation in sims s 1 980b six variable quarterly vector autoregressive model