business bluffing reconsidered imagine that i walk into a car dealership and tell the salesperson that i absolutely cannot pay more than 10 000 for the car that i want and imagine further she tells me that she absolutely cannot sell the car for less than 12 000 assuming that neither one of us is telling the truth we are bluffing about our reservation prices the price above or below which we will no longer be willing to make the transaction this is certainly a common practice and moreover is most likely minimally prudent whether our negotiating adversary is bluffing or not it will always be in our interest to bluff discussions of bluffing in business commonly invoke reservation prices but need not one could misrepresent his position in any number of areas including the financial health of a company poised for merger the authority that has been granted to him by the parties that he represents or even one s enthusiasm about a project the goal of bluffing is quite simple to enhance the strength of one s position during negotiations bluffing has long been a topic of considerable interest to business ethicists 1 on the one hand bluffing seems to bear a strong resemblance to lying and therefore might be thought to be prima facie impermissible on the other many people have the intuition that bluffing is an appropriate and morally permissible negotiating tactic given this tension what is the moral standing of bluffing in business the dominant position has been that it is permissible and work has there fore been done to show why the apparent imper missibility is either mismotivated or illusory two highly influential papers have taken different approaches to securing the moral legitimacy of bluffing the first by albert carr argued that bluffing in business is analogous to bluffing in poker and therefore should not be thought to be impermissible insofar as it is part of the way that the game is played the second by thomas carson presented a more subtle argument wherein the author reconstrued the concept of lying to require an implied warrantability of truth and since business negotiations instantiate a context wherein claims are not warranted to be

wages experience and seniority in this paper we study the sources of wage growth we identify the contribution to such growth of general sector specific and firm specific human capital our results are interpretable within the context of a model where the returns to human capital may be heterogeneous and where firms may offer different combinations of entry level wages and firm specific human capital development we allow for the possibility that wages are match specific and that workers move jobs as a result of identifying a better match to estimate the average returns to experience sector tenure and firm specific tenure within this context we develop an identification strategy which relies on the use of firm closures our data source is a new and unique administrative data set for germany that includes complete work histories as well as individual characteristics we find positive returns to experience and firm tenure for skilled workers the returns to experience for unskilled workers are small and insignificant after 2 years of experience their returns to sector tenure are also zero however their returns to firm tenure are substantial in this paper we study the growth of wages of young workers in germany knowing the extent and reasons for individual wage growth over the life cycle is important for a number of areas in economics just to mention two examples first it is a key element to understanding and designing active labour market programmes many such programmes offer temporary and often subsidized work opportunities examples are the new deal in the u k and the swedish programmes as well as a number of programmes in germany these programmes are based on the assumption that general skills are sufficiently enhanced while working so as to render the workers employable without a wage subsidy thus the success of these programmes depends on how skills improve on the job for the target population and whether this skill enhancement is transferable across jobs second it is a key to understanding the benefits and costs of job mobility this in turn matters for a number of policy issues including the design of pension policies relating for example to final salary schemes as a result of this widespread interest a large body of empirical research has focused on obtaining estimates for the returns of experience and seniority 1 our study uses a new and unique administrative data set with a number of features that are important for our analysis and allow us to avoid many problems encountered in earlier work in this field in our model wages grow due to learning by doing which may be heterogeneous across individuals moreover since firms offer different career profiles and because we allow for match specific effects on wages investments take the form of searching for the firm with the most desirable learning by doing characteristics career structure 2

can there be short period deterministic cycles when people are long lived this paper considers whether short period deterministic cycles can exist in a class of stationary overlapping generations models with long but finite lived agents it shows that if agents discount the future positively then as life spans get large nonmonetary cycles will disappear further neither constant monetary steady states nor stationary monetary cycles can exist it also shows that if agents discount the future negatively then there are robust examples in which constant monetary steady states as well as stationary monetary cycles with undiminished amplitude can occur no matter how long agents live

wages mobility and firm performance advantages and insights from using matched worker firm data to illustrate the wide applicability of longitudinal matched employer employee data we study the simultaneous determination of worker mobility and wage rates using an econometric model that allows for both individual and firm level heterogeneity the model is estimated using longitudinally linked employer employee data from france structural results for mobility show remarkable heterogeneity with both positive and negative duration dependence present in a significant proportion of firms the average structural returns to seniority are essentially zero but this result masks enormous heterogeneity with positive seniority returns found in low starting wage firms

an empirical equilibrium job search model with search on the job and heterogeneous workers and firms in this article we present and estimate a synthesis of previous equilibrium search models allowing for continuous distributions of workers opportunity costs of employment as well as firms productivities the model allows for on the job search and we assume that job offer arrival rates for workers are independent of their labor market state we derive the theoretical implications of these assumptions we provide simulations and we develop a semiparametric estimation procedure that we apply to a dataset of individual labor market histories

job displacement relative wage changes and duration of unemployment using special cps data on displaced workers this article investigates the wage consequences of job displacement in a framework that emphasizes the effects of past job duration s and unemployment duration s on postdisplacement wages our model also attempts to take account of the simultaneity between unemployment duration and the postdisplacement wage it is found that duration strongly reduces subsequent earnings and that considerable overstatement of the loss in firm specific training investments is implied by conventional routes to measuring wage losses

early career work experience and gender wage differentials we estimate a wage model that includes an array of variables measuring the fraction of time worked during each year of the career this array fully characterizes past employment experience regardless of how sporadic it has been our model yields substantially higher estimated returns to experience and lower returns to tenure than do models that measure experience cumulatively and use the standard quadratic functional form we find that the data reject the standard model but fail to reject our model furthermore we find that 12 of the male female wage gap is due to differences in the timing of work experience

industry specific capital and the wage profile evidence from the national longitudinal survey of youth and the panel study of income dynamics using data from the national longitudinal survey of youth 1979 96 and the panel study of income dynamics 1981 91 i seek to determine whether there is any net positive return to tenure with the current employer once we control for industry specific capital including total experience in the industry as an additional explanatory variable i show that the return to seniority is markedly reduced using gls while it virtually disappears using iv gls at both the one digit and three digit levels therefore it seems that what matters most for the wage profile in terms of human capital is industry specificity not firm specificity

stationary monetary equilibria in overlapping generations models with incomplete markets abstract the objective of this paper is to study the stationary monetary equilibria of a stochastic overlapping generations model with a general incomplete asset structure it is proved that a stationary equilibrium with a nonzero price of money generically exists and is locally isolated when there is outside money for an open set of economies there is an equilibrium with positive money prices in all states the equilibrium is also given a neat characterisation in terms of the properties of the underlying state prices with only inside money there will instead be a continuum of equilibria journal of economic literature classification numbers d52 d90 e40

the structure of sunspot equilibria the role of multiplicity this paper examines the structure of sunspot equilibria in a standard two period exchange economy with real assets we show that for a generic choice of utility functions and endowments there exists an open set of real asset structures whose payoffs are independent of sunspots such that the economy with this asset structure has a regular sunspot equilibrium an important implication of our result is that the multiplicity of non sunspot equilibria is not necessary for the existence of sunspot equilibria our technique is general and can be applied to show the existence of sunspot equilibria in other frameworks this paper analyses the structure of sunspot equilibria in a standard two period competitive exchange economy with more than one consumption good in each period and a real asset which pays a bundle of commodities there is no uncertainty except for sunspots we show that for an open and dense subset of the set of utility functions and endowments there exists an open set of real asset structures with payoffs independent of sunspots such that the resulting economy with an asset structure in this set has a regular sunspot equilibrium we also show that this result is tight in the space of utility functions endowments and asset structures there is in fact an open set of economies for which sunspot equilibria do not exist moreover our argument provides a systematic method which allows us to find generically all the sunspot equilibria of a given economy thus it can be used as a tool for studying the global structure of the set of sunspot equilibria not just the existence of a sunspot equilibrium the dependence of the existence of sunspot equilibria on the particular specification of the payoff of the asset provides an interesting contrast with the fact that the set of equilibrium allocations of the underlying certainty economy does not depend on the asset structure recall that when markets are complete preferences and endowments completely determine the set of competitive equilibria in our setting markets are complete in the underlying certainty economy so if payoffs change the price of the asset will change accordingly but there is no effect on the equilibrium consumption of the certainty economy thus the fundamentals of the certainty economy are the distribution of endowments and preferences among consumers and our result implies that the existence of sunspot

state dependence serial correlation and heterogeneity in intertemporal labor force participation of married women a dynamic search framework is developed to analyze the intertemporal labor force participation behavior of married women using longitudinal data to allow for a rich dynamic structure the sensitivity to alternative distributional assumptions is evaluated using linear probability and probit models the dynamic probit models are estimated using maximum simulated likelihood msl estimation to overcome the computational difficulties inherent in maximum likelihood estimation of models with nontrivial error structures the results find that participation decisions are characterized by significant state dependence unobserved heterogeneity and negative serial correlation in the error component the hypothesis that fertility decisions are exogenous to women s participation decisions is rejected when dynamics are ignored however there is no evidence against this hypothesis in dynamic model specifications women s participation response is stronger to permanent than current nonlabor income reflecting unobserved taste factors

endogenous market incompleteness without market frictions dynamic suboptimality of competitive equilibrium in multiperiod overlapping generations economies abstract in this paper we show that within the set of stochastic three period lived olg economies with productive assets such as land markets are necessarily sequentially incomplete and agents in the model do not share risk optimally we start by characterizing perfect risk sharing and find that it requires state dependent consumption claims which depend only on the exogenous shock realizations we show then that the recursive competitive equilibrium of any overlapping generations economy with weakly more than three generations is not strongly stationary this then allows us to show directly that there are short run pareto improvements possible in terms of risk sharing and hence that the recursive competitive equilibrium is not pareto optimal we then show that a financial reform which eliminates the equity asset and replaces it with zero net supply insurance contracts arrow securities will implement to pareto optimal stochastic steady state known to exist in the model finally we also show via numerical simulations that a system of government taxes and transfers can lead to a pareto improvement over the competitive equilibrium in the model

on endogenous competitive business cycles the belief that the long run equilibrium of a competitive monetary economy that does not experience any exogeneous shocks whether originating from the external environment or from policy should be modelled as a state that is stationary or perhaps growing at a constant rate seems to be deeply rooted in the mind of some economists

the sensitivity of an empirical model of married women s hours of work to economic and statistical assumptions this study undertakes a systematic analysis of several theoretic and statistical assumption s used in many empirical models of female labor supply using a singl e data set psid 1975 labor supply data the author is able to replic ate most of the range of estimated income and substitution effects fo und in previous studies in this field he undertakes extensive specif ication tests and finds that most of this range should be rejected du e to statistical and model misspecifications the two most important assumptions appear to be the tobit assumption used to control for sel f selection into the labor force and exogeneity assumptions on the wi fe s wage rate and her labor market experience copyright 1987 by the econometric society

the decentralization of collective bargaining a literature review and comparative analysis the author reviews evidence that the bargaining structure is becoming more decentralized in sweden australia the former west germany italy the united kingdom and the united states although in

ethics deception and labor negotiation there has been widespread emphasis on the importance of trust amongst parties to the employment relationship associated with a call for increased integrative bargaining trust is bound up with ethical action but there has been some debate about the ethics of deception in bargaining because it is possible for cooperative bargainers to be exploited some writers contend that deceptive behavior is ethical and established practice there are several problems about that view it is questionable how clear and uniform such a practice has been an appearance of deceptive bluffing can often be explained as exchange of genuine concessions recent trends have seen increased devolution of bargaining from professionals to non professionals which dilutes any shared understandings there have been in the past while practices that do exist may not be freely or voluntarily accepted and the existence of such practices is not enough to compensate for inequalities of power and skill it is questionable to what extent bluffing and deception are necessary for self defense there other techniques available by which parties can guard themselves against exploitation

interfirm mobility wages and the returns to seniority and experience in the united states in this paper we expand on the seminal work of altonji and shakotko 1987 and topel 1991 and reinvestigate the returns to seniority in the united states we begin with the same wage equation as in previous studies we extend the model of hyslop 1999 and explicitly model the participation employment and inter firm mobility decisions which in turn define the individual s experience and seniority we introduce into the wage equation a summary of the workers entire career path the three equation system is estimated simultaneously using data from the panel study of income dynamics psid we find that for each of the three education groups studied the returns to seniority are larger than those previously found in the literature

life cycle economies and aggregate fluctuations do the implications for business cycle issues change when we switch from studying infinitely lived representative agent models to more sophisticated demographic structures with finitely lived agents this article addresses that question by using a large overlapping generations model that is calibrated to u s demographic properties microeconomic evidence and national income and product accounts the finding is that the answers obtained are basically the same for the two kinds of models the article also explores the relative volatility of hours across age groups an issue that cannot be addressed by using the infinitely lived representative agent abstraction

short memory equilibrium in stochastic overlapping generations economies abstract in stochastic olg exchange economies we show that short memory equilibria the natural extension from deterministic economies of steady states low order cycles or finite state space stationary sunspots equilibria fail to exist generically in utilities as a result even with independent and identically distributed exogenous shocks there is serial correlation in endogenous economic variables in equilibrium this arises even if utilities are time separable some goods inferior and there are no technological lags hence the origins of economic fluctuations can be traced only to the demographic structure of a heterogeneous agent multiple good economy

rational expectations in the overlapping generations model abstract this paper reports results on the character of the rational expectations equilibria of a stochastic overlapping generations model with heterogenous markets the model considered is a stationary overlapping generations model in which the endowments of young agents are subject to i i d random shocks the main result shown is that if there are l 1 commodities traded in every period then for most preferences the rational expectations equilibrium stochastic process of prices and allocations necessarily exhibits serial correlation this is in marked contrast to the one commodity model in which there always exists an equilibrium which is measure isomorphic to the endowment process

stationary equilibria with incomplete markets and overlapping generations recent work on general equilibrium models with incomplete financial markets has demonstrated that when assets pay off in units of account equilibrium prices and allocations are indeterminate the equilibria in such models are also generically constrained suboptimal a central planner can typically reallocate assets in such a way as to pareto dominate the competitive equilibrium in this paper the authors consider an overlapping generations model with incomplete markets in which one asset is fiat money they show that when outside money has value in equilibrium the stationary equilibrium prices and allocations are both locally isolated and constrained optimal copyright 1992 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

collaborative collective bargaining toward an ethically defensible approach to labor negotiations in this paper i explain the present adversarial collective bargaining process acb and then critique it on legal and ethical grounds a new methodology that i describe as the collaborative collective bargaining process ccb will then be explained and similarly critiqued i argue that replacing the present acb model with the ccb model will result in better long term results for all parties concerned this is because the acb model is comparable in many respects to the adversarial process used in court litigation it is a combat model based on power acb makes the battle lines clear and it grants victory to the more convincing display of power but it leaves casualties indeed it cannot operate except upon the casualties of the opposing party and those casualties are the basis for ever renewed combat tactics employed in acb to achieve victory include deception lying and the abandonment of truth as a moral value i argue that in sharp contrast ccb can foster an environment which encourages candor and truthfulness by following the ccb model the parties can avoid the negative and self defeating elements of acb and can work together toward mutually beneficial goals by the use of an ethically defensible approach to labor negotiations