evidence of direct and indirect rebound effect in households in eu 27 countries abstract this research estimates the direct and indirect rebound effect of energy efficiency in households for the eu 27 countries the first twenty seven member states of the european union a hybrid methodology that combines econometric estimates environmental extended input output analysis and re spending models has been developed although most of the economies present values below 100 there are seven countries situated above this critical threshold by weighting individual estimates by gdp an average value for the overall eu 27 economy has been found between 73 62 and 81 16 these results suggest that the energy policy at the european level should be rethought if efficiency measures pursue reducing energy consumption and tackling climate change

the effects of energy related policies on energy consumption in china abstract this paper examines the effects of different types of energy related policies on different types of energy consumption in china we collect and construct a novel comprehensive and detailed data set on province level energy related policies that includes specific types of energy related command and control policies financial incentives awards intellectual property rights and education and information policies our econometric method employs instruments to address the potential endogeneity of the policies according to our results some types of energy related policies have been effective in reducing energy consumption however many other policies have the possibly unintended or even perverse consequence of increasing rather than decreasing energy consumption our results on the mixed effectiveness of energy related policies in china in reducing energy consumption have important implications for the design of energy related policies in china and elsewhere

the effects of environmental fiscal reform in germany a simulation study this paper presents the first comprehensive model based impact analysis of the german environmental fiscal reform addressing the effects on co2 emissions economic growth employment and personal income distribution both an econometric input output model and a dynamic computable general equilibrium model are applied in order to enhance the credibility of our results the macroeconomic results are linked with a micro simulation model of the household sector so that detailed household data can be used to determine the effect of the environmental fiscal reform on personal income distribution we find a small double dividend in that energy consumption and co2 emissions decrease while employment rises the impact on economic growth is found to be minimal the fear that the environmental fiscal reform might interfere with the goals of social and income distribution policy is found to be largely unjustified

global warming and energy demand list of tables list of figures list of contributors preface 1 global warming and energy elasticities terry barker paul ekins and nick johnstonepart 1 estimating long term energy elasticities 2 alternative approaches to estimating long run energy demand elasticities an application to asian developing countries ron smith and m hashem pesaran 3 a survey of international energy elasticities neil manning and jago atkinson 4 long run demand elasticities for gasoline thomas sterner and mikael franzen 5 responses of energy demand in uk manufacturing to the energy price increases of 1973 and 1979 80 alan ingham 6 elasticities for oecd aggregate final energy demand lakis vouyoukas 7 modelling uk energy demand derek hodgson and keith millerpart ii energy the economy and greenhouse gas abatement 8 endogenous technological progress in fossil fuel demand laurence boone stephen hall david kemball cook and clare smith 9 uk energy price elasticities and their implications for long term co2 abatement terry barker 10 price elasticity and market structure overcoming obstacles to ensure energy efficiency tim jackson 11 rethinking the use of energy elasticities stefan p schleicher 12 revisiting the costs of co2 abatement paul ekins 13 asymmetrical price elasticities of energy demand michael grubb14 conclusions terry barker paul ekins and nick johnstone bibliography index

the macro economic rebound effect and the uk economy abstract this paper examines the macroeconomic rebound effect for the uk economy arising from energy efficiency policies 2000 2010 using the macroeconomic model mdm e3 the literature distinguishes between three types of rebound effect direct indirect and economy wide the macroeconomic rebound effect considered here is the combination of the indirect and economy wide effects policies for the domestic business commercial and public and transport sectors of the economy are analysed for 2000 2010 overall the policies lead to a saving of about 8 of the energy which would otherwise have been used and a reduction in co2 emissions of 10 or 14 mtc by 2010 there are also favourable macroeconomic effects lower inflation and higher growth we find that the macroeconomic rebound effect arising from uk energy efficiency policies for the period 2000 2010 is around 11 by 2010 averaged across sectors of the economy when this is added to the assumed direct rebound effect of around 15 this gives a total rebound effect of around 26 arising from these policies thus the findings of the study support the argument that energy efficiency improvements for both consumers and producers stimulated by policy incentives will lead to significant reductions in energy demand and hence in greenhouse gas emissions

a general equilibrium assessment of rebound effects in this paper we use a general equilibrium model applied to a national economy norway to explore the potential for energy efficiency improvements to trigger economic forces that offset potential savings from using more efficient technologies rebound effects two types of energy efficiency improvements electricity and oil are introduced into various sectors of the economy our results suggest significant and surprising differences across sectors concerning both energy use and consequences for the build up of greenhouse gases rebound effects are found to be quite significant for manufacturing sectors since long term consumption of energy undergoes minor reductions or increases in response to efficiency improvements in other sectors rebound effects appear to be weak or almost absent

central governance or subsidiarity a property rights approach to federalism abstract we consider a model where one region in a federation can realize a public project after undertaking value increasing investments while negotiations on the federal level ensure that an efficient project size is implemented in equilibrium non contractibility of investments causes the overall outcome to differ across regimes if the region bears the entire implementation costs of its policies underinvestment prevails and subsidiarity centralized governance is superior when spillovers are weak strong conversely if linear cost sharing arrangements are feasible decentralized authority often admits a socially optimal outcome while centralized authority with majority or unanimity rule does not

macroeconomic effects of efficiency policies for energy intensive industries the case of the uk climate change agreements 2000 2010 abstract this paper reports a study modeling the uk climate change agreements ccas and related energy efficiency policies for energy intensive industrial sectors bottom up estimates of the effects of these policies are introduced into the energy demand equations of a top down dynamic econometric model of the uk economy with fifty industrial sectors mdm e3 this allowed estimation of the effects of the reduced energy use for the outputs from the sectors i e the reductions in unit costs of the energy intensive industries on the demand for their outputs both in the uk and in the export markets the model is solved as a counterfactual 2000 2005 and as a projection 2005 2010 in a series of scenarios to allow estimation of the effects of the policies on inflation and growth as well as on overall energy demand and co 2 emissions the system wide final energy reductions is estimated to be 4 2 mtoe or 2 6 of total final demand for energy by 2010 including a rebound effect of 19 with negligible effects on inflation and a slight increase in economic growth through improved international competitiveness

racial discrimination dualistic labor markets and foreign investment abstract this paper presents a model of racial discrimination in a stylized two sector dual economy model with direct foreign investment racial discrimination is analyzed both in terms of preferences and in terms of regulations that favor one ethnic group at the expense of another the focus is on the gains to white labor that accrue from restrictions on employment of black labor both in a closed economy and in one open to direct foreign investment

solow meets leontief economic growth and energy consumption abstract this paper proposes a methodology that integrates a growth model with an input output model to analyze the impacts of economic growth on the consumption of energy the integration between the models is carried out by calibrating the growth module which incorporates energetic inputs renewable and nonrenewable in the production function and implementing shocks by the supply side capital labor renewable and nonrenewable energy in the input output model this allows us to verify the pattern of energy consumption for each sector in the input output matrix we apply this methodology to study the energy consumption of eleven economic sectors in brazil using data from the brazilian national accounts and input output matrix ibge and the national energy report ben we conduct experiments involving changes in technological progress growth rate extraction and regeneration rates of both renewable and nonrenewable resources and population growth to analyze the impact of changes in the parameters of the model on the sectoral output growth rate and consequently on the consumption of energy in each economic sector

modeling of industrial energy consumption an introduction and context industrial energy accounts for roughly one third of total global energy consumption and is expected to continue to use a similar share in the foreseeable future however this is one of the hardest end uses to analyze model and forecast the reasons for modeling industrial energy consumption are as varied as the ways in which energy is used in production processes this has led to the application of a broad set of emperical tools from several different disciplines in this article we provide an introduction and context for a compendium or survey of the methods used in this area this special issue of energy economics is designed to provide both newcomers and accomplished researchers with an overview of the current state of development in the are of industrial energy modeling

on the rebound feedback between energy intensities and energy uses in iea countries abstract the interaction or feedback between energy efficiencies or energy intensities and energy use has long been the topic of debate some have argued that energy efficiency improvements by reducing energy intensities and therefore lowering the cost of energy services would lead to rebound effects offsetting much or all of any initial savings in energy in this paper we analyse historical data on energy use efficiency and pricing in different sectors to try and identify rebounds for the period of our data since about 1970 we show that key measures of activity car use manufacturing output and structure house area etc have changed little in response to changes in energy prices or efficiency instead continuing their long term evolution relative to gdp or other driving factors while our analysis cannot disentangle more macro level economic feedbacks in a detailed way we show indirectly that such effects also appear to have been small over the 1970s and 1980s overall our analysis of disaggregated sectoral and subsectoral energy use and activity trends in a variety of iea economies suggests that any feedback effect is small compared to both the effects on energy use of changes in energy intensities and overall economic growth we conclude that most of the improvements in energy efficiencies led to reductions in energy intensities observed in the 1970s and 1980s weighted by 1990 activity levels intensities were roughly 15 20 lower in 1994 5 than in 1973 which in turn meant real savings of energy energy demand in iea countries is roughly this much below what it would have been for the same gdp had these savings not occurred rebounds may have taken back some of the overall savings but most remain even after the fall of oil prices in 1986 any boost to gdp as a result of these savings could not have been sufficient to increase energy demand enough to significantly alter these conclusions that the savings remained after the fall in oil prices supports the notion that net savings restrained energy growth relative to gdp in some formulations arise from technological progress even if energy prices do not increase how far this effect can reach however is a matter of considerable debate

energy efficiency economics and policy energy efficiency and conservation are major factors in the reduction of the environmental impact of the energy sector particularly with regard to climate change energy efficiency also contributes to reducing external dependence and vulnerabilities in the energy domain in this paper we discuss the factors that influence energy efficiency and conservation decisions and the most appropriate policies for their promotion although not all public policies seem justified we argue that specific policies for promoting energy conservation may be required preferably based on economic instruments or on the provision of information to consumers

spatially uneven development and low carbon transitions insights from urban and regional planning the ageing of existing energy system infrastructure the threat of climate change and uncertainty in the movement of energy prices have resulted in a widespread agreement on the need for a transition to a low carbon energy system yet the nature of this transition i e what when how and where and its socio economic outcomes at different scales are not well understood the interdependence of the energy sector and economic growth has been mostly studied at the national level via some general equilibrium or econometric models whilst sub national studies at community or urban levels mostly focus on the governance of transitions hence we suggest that a regional perspective to energy policy and research promises to integrate these two approaches by providing a more robust and comprehensive understanding of the implications of low carbon transitions as well as contributing to the development of more effective policies by building on recent ideas on geographical aspects of energy transitions this article offers insights on the changing relationship between the spatial organisation of economic activities and energy systems and identifies tools and methods from urban and regional planning to help with the delivery of efficient and equitable policy outcomes

polices for increasing energy efficiency thirty years of experience in oecd countries energy efficiency improvement was an important phenomenon in the global energy balance over the past 30 years without energy efficiency improvements the oecd nations would have used approximately 49 more energy than was actually consumed as of 1998 this paper first reviews energy intensity trends for the major oecd nations since 1973 considering how much of the overall reduction in e gdp was due to energy efficiency improvement and how much was due to structural change the bulk of the paper examines the energy efficiency policies and programs adopted in japan united states and western europe commenting on their effectiveness and energy savings impacts where possible the paper also reviews the energy efficiency policies and programs adopted in california this experience shows that well designed policies can result in substantial energy savings as demonstrated in the united states where nine specific policies and programs reduced primary energy use in 2002 by approximately 11 substantial energy savings also occurred in japan some european countries and in the electricity sector in california

strategic energy management in the primary aluminium industry self generation as a competitive factor the brazilian aluminium industry classified as energy intensive consume alone about 6 of all power generated by hydro electric power plants and therein lies much of the problem needs lots of energy to produce primary aluminium the aim of this study is to evaluate the strategy of energy self generation as a viable alternative of sustainable growth and its importance for the competitive primary aluminium industry in brazil and outlines key tactics to self generation adopted for different economic scenarios and conditions in which it would be effective also environmental aspects are considered because their impacts in costs and the impact of recycling in the environment through mainly reuse o aluminium from cans given the instability of energy prices on the open market and supply volatility self generation appears as the best alternative for maintaining the sustainability of the primary aluminium industry in brazil

pathways to a low carbon economy for the uk with the macro econometric e3mg model this paper examines different carbon pathways for achieving deep co2 reduction targets for the uk using a macro econometric hybrid model e3mg which stands for energy economy environment model at the global level the e3mg with the uk as one of its regions combines a top down approach for modeling the global economy and for estimating the aggregate and disaggregate energy demand and a bottom up approach energy technology submodel etm for simulating the power sector which then provides feedback to the energy demand equations and the whole economy the etm submodel uses a probabilistic approach and historical data for estimating the penetration levels of the different technologies considering their economic technical and environmental characteristics three pathway scenarios cfh clc and cam simulate the co2 reduction by 40 60 and 80 by 2050 compared to 1990 levels respectively and are compared with a reference scenario ref with no reduction target the targets are modeled as the uk contribution to an international mitigation effort such as achieving the g8 reduction targets which is a more realistic political framework for the uk to move towards deep reductions rather than moving alone this paper aims to provide modeling evidence that deep reduction targets can be met through different carbon pathways while also assessing the macroeconomic effects of the pathways on gdp and investment

a review of optimal energy policy instruments on industrial energy efficiency programs rebound effects and government policies abstract industrial energy efficiency programs ieeps are defined as one of the most popular government policies that aim to reduce energy consumption in industrial energy intensive sectors in this paper we review and classify the most important academic studies that have addressed the environmental and economic aspects of ieeps using a systematic review the classification of energy policy instruments has been developed based on an analytical approach we discuss also the outputs benefits and barriers of ieeps besides a comprehensive argument about the restrictive policies on the rebound effects made after the implementation of these programs the results disclose that china usa and sweden are the most addressed countries on ieeps and their applications in this regard incentive energy policies e g voluntary agreements and subsidies have been applied more than others in the last decade furthermore most of the reviewed studies emphasize energy price reform as an effective practical policy while a few analytical methods can be seen to help policy makers determine the optimal levels of decision variables finally according to the state of the art analysis the authors provide some novel recommendations to improve the performance of ieeps using some restrictive policies on the negative impacts of rebound effects

energy environment policy modeling of endogenous technological change with personal vehicles combining top down and bottom up methods abstract the transportation sector offers substantial potential for greenhouse gas ghg emission abatement but widely divergent cost estimates complicate policy making energy economy policy modelers apply top down and bottom up cost definitions and different assumptions about future technologies and the preferences of firms and households our hybrid energy economy policy model is technology rich like a bottom up model but has empirically estimated behavioral parameters for risk and technology preferences like a top down model unlike typical top down models however it simulates technological change endogenously with functions that relate the financial costs of technologies to cumulative production and adjust technology preferences as market shares change we apply it to the choice of personal vehicles to indicate first the effect on cost estimates of divergent cost definitions and second the possible response to policies that require a minimum market share for low emission vehicles

the energy demand in the british and german industrial sectors heterogeneity and common factors abstract this paper estimates energy demands for the german and british industrial sectors over the 1978 2004 and the 1991 2004 samples from time series models we can conclude that there is a considerable variation in the value of the coefficients across sectors even though energy demands with sensible parameters can rarely be estimated when using a panel approach the ability of some estimators to allow for diversity across subsectors was an important factor in explaining the estimates for price elasticity on the other hand correlation across panel members or common factors did not markedly influence our results with regard to the estimated parameters our preferred choice for elasticity of economic activity and price in the longer sample is 0 52 and 0 64 similar values are found in the case of the shorter samples bearing in mind the high price elasticity energy taxes can be considered an effective strategy for reducing energy consumption

the macroeconomic rebound effect in china the rebound effect measures the fraction of an energy efficiency improvement that is offset by increased energy consumption a rebound effect can arise at both the microeconomic level and the macroeconomic level the macroeconomic rebound effect measures the effect of an increase in energy efficiency on overall energy demand after markets adjust and re equilibrate at the macroeconomic level energy efficiency gains can increase energy consumption through two channels the macroeconomic price effect and the macroeconomic growth effect in this paper we econometrically estimate the macroeconomic energy rebound effect in china our results show that there is a statistically significant macroeconomic price rebound effect for china for each province and for the short run intermediate run and the long run we also find some evidence of a macroeconomic growth rebound in the short run and the intermediate run for some years either nation wide or for some provinces in china moreover for some years and some provinces we cannot reject backfire the rebound effect is an important phenomenon that the government of china should not neglect when making energy policy as it affects how improvements in energy efficiency translate into changes in energy consumption

barriers to energy efficiency in industrial bottom up energy demand models a review the goal of this paper is to review bottom up models for industrial energy demand with a particular focus on their capability to model barriers to the adoption of energy efficient technologies the integration of barriers into the models is an important prerequisite for a more detailed and realistic modeling of policies for energy efficiency particularly with the emergence of more and more varying policy instruments it also becomes crucial for the models to take account of these policies as well as the barriers they address in a more realistic way our review revealed that despite the broadly evident existence of market failures and barriers for energy efficient technologies they are only partly and in a rather aggregated form considered in today s bottom up models the state of the art bottom up model is based on an explicit representation of the technology stock and considers the costs of energy efficiency options in detail but with regard to barriers most models only make use of an aggregated approach like an adjusted discount rate while some models do not even consider technology costs and energy prices but instead use exogenous technology diffusion rates other more advanced models took first steps towards considering barriers in more detail the latter allows differentiation between multiple parameters that influence technology adoption still even in the most advanced models only a few of the observed barriers are explicitly considered at the same time new approaches to considering barriers like uncertainty or the slow spread of information are being developed in other disciplines we conclude the paper by summarizing promising ways to improve representation of barriers in bottom up models

the impacts of energy efficiency policies meta analysis abstract this paper attempts to quantitatively summarize the existing empirical evidence on the effects of energy efficiency policies on energy demand and on the price of associated durable goods as well as to identify the main factors that systematically affect the estimated impacts to this end a meta regression analysis of the effects of energy efficiency policies is carried out on the basis of an extensive review of the existing literature selecting those studies that analyze the impact of energy efficiency policies with respect to a business as usual setting taking into account the econometric problems associated with this type of analysis intra class correlation cross sectional dependence publication bias in pursuit of robust outcomes the results show that the studies analyzing the effects of energy efficiency policies estimate a significant impact of these policies on energy demand 10 5 8 8 and the price of related durable goods 7 9 6 the main factors that influence results are the policy instrument the targeted sector the type of country the analyzed period the consideration of free riders and the type of analysis data and publication energy demand and the sector and analyzed period price of durables