return migration uncertainty and precautionary savings this paper presents a life cycle model where migrants determine re migration and consumption simultaneously in a stochastic environment whether precautionary savings of migrants are above or below those of natives is ambiguous in general the sign depends on the risk in host and home country labor markets and on the correlation of labor market shocks furthermore the effect of an uncertain environment on migration and re migration plans cannot be unambiguously signed for the general case it depends on the size of the wage differential as well as the relative risk the migrant exhibits in the two labor markets

the theory of mixed demand functions abstract the properties of samuelson s mixed demand functions which express demand as a function of a mixed set of prices and quantities are derived by analyzing compensated or substitution effects and uncompensated effects the relationships between mixed demand functions and conditional or rationed demands are examined this provides insights on the behavioral implications of consumer theory for alternative demand specifications

modelling the joint determination of household labour supplies and commodity demands in addition to choosing the allocation of total expenditure between commodities households may also be able to make decisions over the allocation of their time between market work and leisure in both theoretical and empirical work it has often been the case that these decisions have been analysed separately in this paper we stress the theoretical attractions of considering the joint determination of the allocation of time between work and leisure and the allocation of total expenditure between commodities in a utility maximising framework using a sample of individual households we attempt to evaluate the empirical importance of the joint determination model over the separate determination of labour supplies and commodity demands our approach follows that of abbott and ashenfelter i976 phlips i978 barnett i979 deaton and muellbauer i980 and atkinson and stern i980 here we pay particular attention to the following four important aspects of household decision making over commodity demand and labour supply the first concerns the commonly assumed restriction on the household s preferences of weak separability between goods and leisure this assumption allows the estimation of commodity demand systems and engel curves that exclude wage rate variables in cross section household budget data with large variation in wage rates across the sample the invalidity of this assumption would involve a serious mis specification any correlation between the excluded wage variable and the included price income and demographic variables would lead to biased parameter estimates and hence biased estimated elasticities similarly this assumption allows the estimation of labour supply curves that exclude relative price variables and its invalidity could produce biased labour supply elasticities a second aspect of household decision making which we wish to highlight arises from the suspicion commonly alluded to in labour economics texts that primary male workers may not be free to choose their hours of work thus we estimate a matched pair of rationed and unrationed systems following the work of neary and roberts i 980 and deaton and muellbauer i 979 the separability restriction is not unrelated to this point since without it we will see that the rationed hours of work enter demand systems in a complex fashion in effect

return migration the european experience labour immigration contributed strongly to europe s post war economic development in contrast to migration to north america or australia these movements of labour were always seen as temporary by sending and receiving countries and at least initially also by most migrants although many migrants stayed more permanently return migration is a highly relevant feature in practice its significant role and the underlying behavioural mechanisms are not well understood however it is therefore not too surprising that most policy measures taken in the 1970s and 1980s to encourage return migration failed the paper takes the view that much can be learned from recent european history temporary immigration schemes may be helpful to moderate illegal migration and to foster east west economic relationships given the tight policies in the european union short term migration seems to be the only channel to open the door slightly the paper reviews the european history of return migration and the policy regimes in important european labour migration receiving countries it also provides new empirical evidence on the determinants of return behaviour and successful return return propensities of migrants increase with the age at entry but decrease with the number of years of residence conditional on having decided to return however the remaining years in the country decrease with years of residence and keeping years of residence constant with entry age return incentives may cause dissatisfaction and reintegration problems in the home country the results support the view that economic benefits are the larger the earlier it is clear whether migration is temporary or permanent

heterogeneity and peer effects in mutual fund proxy voting this paper studies voting in corporate director elections we construct a comprehensive data set of 2 058 788 mutual fund votes over a two year period we find systematic heterogeneity in voting some funds are consistently more management friendly than others we also establish the presence of peer effects a fund is more likely to oppose management when other funds are more likely to oppose it all else being equal we estimate a voting model whose supermodular structure allows us to compute social multipliers due to peer effects heterogeneity and peer effects are as important in shaping voting outcomes as firm and director characteristics

monotone equilibria in bayesian games of strategic complementarities for bayesian games of strategic complementarities we provide a constructive proof of the existence of a greatest and a least bayes nash equilibrium each one in strategies that are monotone in type our main assumptions besides strategic complementarities are that each player s payoff displays increasing differences in own action and the profile of types and that each player s interim beliefs are increasing in type with respect to first order stochastic dominance e g types are affiliated the result holds for general action and type spaces single multi or infinite dimensional continuous or discrete and no prior is assumed we also provide the following comparative statics result the greatest and least equilibria are higher if there is a first order stochastic dominant shift in the interim beliefs we apply this result to strategic information revelation in games of voluntary disclosure

tax deferred accounts constrained choice and estimation of individual saving the paper analyzes the effect of tax deferred individual retirement accounts iras in the united states on net individual saving the results are based on a model of constrained optimization with the limit on tax deferred saving the principle constraint the estimates suggest that contributions to iras represent substantial net saving increases were the ira limit to be increased only about 10 to 20 of resulting increase in ira contributions would be taken from other savings about 50 would come from reduced consumption and about 35 from reduced

employment and welfare participation among women laurie j bassi the model makes a distinction between voluntary and involuntary welfare receipt the findings suggest that among female heads of households the increase in welfare receipt that occurred between 1967 and 1979 was almost completely attributable to an increase in involuntary unemployment and an increase in the proportion of the population that was eligible for welfare due to changes in program parameters the passage of time used as a proxy for changes in the stigma associated with receiving welfare appears to be of secondary importance the labor supply response to welfare programs is small and possibly diminishing over time i introduction during the last thirty years the aid to families with dependent children afdc and food stamp programs experienced phenomenal increases in outlays between 1965 and 1975 the afdc population grew 162 percent and real government spending on benefits more than tripled by 1980 the probability that a family was receiving afdc was four times the probability in 1950 value the food stamp program after its introduction in the late 1960s experienced equally dramatic increases in recipiency rates and outlays these striking increases in welfare costs and participation brought an emerging consensus that the afdc and food stamp programs had failed as charles murray writes in losing ground 1984 146 the popular wisdom is characterized by hostility toward welfare it makes people lazy historian james patterson 1981 179 provides an alternative though not inconsistent explanation of the skyrocketing caseloads despite the hostility of the middle classes to increases in welfare poor americans refused at last to be cowed from applying for aid compared to the past when poor people harassed and stigmatized by public authorities were slow to claim their rights this was a fundamental change both of these explanations of the increase in welfare participation assert changes in people s response to the programs murray claims that program changes in the 1960s induced negative labor supply responses increasing numbers of individuals voluntarily reduced their earned income in order to become eligible for welfare patterson claims that a reduction in the stigma associated with welfare led a greater percentage of those eligible to apply for welfare a theoretical model for evaluating the validity of these two views as descriptions of reality is presented here the model is tested using data on women who headed households at some time between 1967 to 1979 the analysis attempts to identify changes in behavior among female heads of households but does not model the decision to head a family a decision which embodies both marital status and fertility choices the implications of this limitation are discussed at the end of the paper the focus is on developing a tractable theoretical structure that allows for a distinction between voluntary and involuntary welfare participation the model also provides a simple test for whether reported unemployment is a constraint on choice or rather a result of it i e whether unemployment too is involuntary or voluntary the empirical results enable us to dis aggregate the changes in welfare participation into their component parts the findings suggest that the increase in welfare participation rates among female heads of households during the late 1960s and 1970s is attributable to both an increase in involuntary unemployment and to an increase in those eligible for welfare as a result of changes in program parameters the passage of time used as a proxy for a lessening of stigma appears to be of minor importance the labor supply response to welfare programs appears to be small and possibly diminishing over time in section ii a model for determining the effect of redistribution schemes on labor supply and welfare participation decisions is developed

communication in cournot oligopoly abstract this paper studies communication in a static cournot duopoly model under the assumption that the firms have unverifiable private information about their costs we investigate the conditions under which the firms cannot transmit any information through cheap talk and show that when these conditions are violated it may be possible to construct informative cheap talk equilibria if the firms can communicate through a third party communication can be informative even when informative cheap talk is impossible we exhibit a simple mediated mechanism that ensures informative communication and interim pareto dominates the uninformative equilibrium for the firms

existence of equilibrium in large double auctions abstract we show the existence of a pure strategy symmetric increasing equilibrium in double auction markets with correlated conditionally independent private values and many participants the equilibrium we find is arbitrarily close to fully revealing as the market size grows our results provide strategic foundations for price taking behavior in large markets

aggregate comparative statics abstract in aggregative games each player s payoff depends on her own actions and an aggregate of the actions of all the players many common games in industrial organization political economy public economics and macroeconomics can be cast as aggregative games this paper provides a general and tractable framework for comparative static results in aggregative games we focus on two classes of games 1 aggregative games with strategic substitutes and 2 nice aggregative games where payoff functions are continuous and concave in own strategies we provide simple sufficient conditions under which positive shocks to individual players increase their own actions and have monotone effects on the aggregate the results are illustrated with applications to public good provision contests cournot competition and technology choices in oligopoly

sectoral productivity growth and poverty reduction national and global impacts summary this paper examines the implications of productivity improvements in agriculture industry and services for global poverty we find that in poor countries increases in agricultural productivity generally have a larger poverty reduction effect than increases in industry or services this differential declines as average incomes rise partly because agriculture becomes smaller as a share of the economy and partly because agricultural productivity growth becomes less effective in reducing poverty the source of the poverty reduction benefits from agricultural productivity growth changes as innovations are more widely adopted moving from increases in producer returns to reductions in consumer prices

a life cycle consistent empirical model of family labour supply using cross section data this paper estimates a utility maximising model of the joint determination of male and female labour supplies using a sample of married couples from the u k family expenditure survey the emphasis is on the estimation of within period preferences that are consistent with intertemporal two stage budgeting under uncertainty however the approach we adopt provides an alternative method of estimating certain aspects of life cycle behaviour to the fixed effects constant approach of heckman and macurdy 1980 macurdy 1981 and browning deaton and irish 1985 moreover it relaxes some of the underlying restrictions that are implicit in these constant models under uncertainty

robust comparative statics in large dynamic economies we consider infinite horizon economies populated by a continuum of agents subject to idiosyncratic shocks this framework contains models of saving and capital accumulation with incomplete markets in the spirit of works by bewley aiyagari and huggett models of entry exit and industry dynamics in the spirit of hopenhayn s work and dynamic models of occupational choice and search models as special cases robust and easy to apply comparative statics results are established with respect to exogenous parameters as well as various kinds of changes in the markov processes governing the law of motion of the idiosyncratic shocks

strategic information revelation we analyze the problem in which agents have non public information and are to play an asymmetric information game the agents may reveal some or all of their information to other agents prior to playing this game revelation is via exogenously specified certifiable statements the equilibria resulting from various revelation strategies are used to determine equilibrium revelation of information sufficient conditions are provided for complete revelation of all private information a number of examples are provided illustrating when revelation will or will not occur in commonly analyzed games many economic problems are characterized by the presence of both strategic behaviour on the part of individuals and by asymmetric information models encompassing both of these characteristics have been used successfully to examine questions in many fields usually using the concept of bayesian nash equilibrium as the solution concept typically the agents information is given exogenously and is fixed throughout the analysis modelling the information structure as static is appropriate for some problems but not for all in particular situations that are inherently dynamic most economic encounters allow for some interchange between the agents before the outcome is settled irrevocably in such circumstances it is possible that at least one or more of the agents possessing non public information may be able to reveal part or all of his information to one or all of the other agents in the economy during the course of their contact to the extent that such a communication is believed by the other agents the priors of the other agents will change and we will have what is in essence a new asymmetric information game new in

blockbusting brokers and the dynamics of segregation abstract the paper presents a dynamic model of neighborhood segregation where fee motivated real estate brokers match sellers optimally either to minority or to white buyers in an initially all white neighborhood real estate brokers thus either keep the neighborhood in a steady state white equilibrium or trigger racial transition by matching sellers to minority buyers a process called blockbusting racial transition leads to a higher rate of property turnover in the neighborhood once the fraction of minorities has reached a tipping point but racial transition also leads to lower prices and this is the trade off faced by a broker the model shows that with multiple brokers blockbusting profit per broker is lower as brokers free ride on each other s groundbreaking efforts the model predicts that racial transition will happen in the neighborhood when i the number of brokers is limited ii racial preferences lie in an intermediate range iii the arrival rate of offers is intermediate otherwise real estate brokers steer white households toward white buyers

purification of bayes nash equilibrium with correlated types and interdependent payoffs abstract we establish purification results for bayes nash equilibrium in a large class of bayesian games with finite sets of pure actions we allow for correlated types and interdependent payoffs and for type dependent feasible action sets the latter feature allows us to prove existence and purification results for pure bayes nash equilibria in undominated strategies we give applications to auctions global games and voting to illustrate the usefulness of our results

return migration wage differentials and the optimal migration duration in simple static models migration increases with the wage differential between host and home country in a dynamic framework and if migrations are temporary the size of the migrant population in the host country depends also on the migration duration this paper analyses optimal migration durations in a model which rationalises the decision of the migrant to return to his home country despite persistently higher wages in the host country the analysis shows that if migrations are temporary the optimal migration duration may decrease if the wage differential grows larger using micro data for germany the second part of the paper provides empirical evidence which is compatible with this hypothesis

an explicit solution to an optimal tax problem abstract under specific but perhaps not over restrictive assumptions on social welfare and consumer preferences an explicit closed form solution for an optimal linear income tax is derived specifically given linear income supply functions and a rank order social welfare function the optimal tax rate and benefit level are characterized by four parameters i a measure of pre tax inequality in the ability wage distribution r the fraction of potential total income required for non redistributed government revenue the fraction of potential total income required for consumer subsistence expenditures and a disincentive parameter the marginal propensity to spend on leisure or the amount by which earned income is reduced in response to a unit increase in unearned benefit defining the ratio i 1 r the optimal tax rate is given by 1 1 2 1 2 1 4 1 minus 1 2 1 the formula is used to fully characterize in terms of the parameters results include the following 0 if i 0 1 if 0 is increasing in i and r may be increasing or decreasing in depending on the value of when disincentive effects are large becomes close to so that in such economies if and r are small the optimal tax rate is equal to the measure of pre tax inequality formulae for the deadweight loss associated with the tax are derived and some observations are offered on the empirical issues associated with the model

labour supply commodity demand and marginal tax reform this paper examines the implications of extending the ahmad stern model of indirect tax reform to include labour supply the inclusion of labour supply alters the basic measure of marginal revenue cost mrc of indirect taxation and introduces the possibility of calculating a mrc for direct taxation the paper derives the expressions for these revised mrcs and provides estimates from irish data it then examines the sensitivity of the results to assumptions regarding functional form and in particular goods leisure sc parability in setting optimal tax rates policy makers face considerable difficulties explicit assumptions must be made regarding the underlying preferences of the consumer i e the functional form for the utility and demand functions and also about how expenditures are distributed sensitivity to underlying preferences is discussed by deaton i 98 i and is empirically examined by ray i986 and ebrahimi and heady i988 policy makers also face the problem that even when they do provide explicit forms for demand functions they face difficulties regarding the reliability of estimates and are also evaluating demand responses at a point possibly quite far away from the optimum the difficulties outlined above led to the development of the marginal tax reform literature with the seminal paper in this area by ahmad and stern i984 this approach has the considerable advantage of not requiring the choice of explicit utility functions nor of distributions of expenditure but instead merely requiring information on the actual position of the economy at a single point in time using actual consumption and distributions of expenditure it must be noted that tax reform does require information on demand responses so that results in this area can still be sensitive to the specification of consumer preferences and demand systems however tax reform results appear to be less sensitive than do tax design results to this

the contributions of angus deaton angus deaton was awarded the 2015 sveriges riksbank prize in economic sciences in memory of alfred nobel for his analysis of consumption poverty and welfare this article reviews his contributions to economics

do high income or low income immigrants leave faster we estimate the impact of the income earned in the host country on return migration of labor migrants from developing countries we use a three state correlated competing risks model to account for the strong dependence of labor market status and the income earned our analysis is based on administrative panel data of recent labor immigrants from developing countries to the netherlands the empirical results show that intensities of return migration are u shaped with respect to migrants income implying a higher intensity in low and high income groups indeed the lowest income group has the highest probability of return we also find that ignoring the interdependence of labor market status and the income earned leads to an overestimating the income effect on departure keywords migration dynamics labor market transitions competing risks immigrant assimilation

promises and conventions an approach to pre play agreements abstract i analyze how informal agreements can be sustained by moral emotions with regard to a large class of two player games specifically i assume that people feel guilty if they breach an agreement and that the guilt increases according to the degree of the harm inflicted on the other a central insight is that it is easier to sustain efficient informal agreements if actions are strategic complements than if they are strategic substitutes i complement this general insight by studying two specific cases where negotiators face uncertainty about the breach of the agreement i show that while the optimal agreement in a game with strategic substitutes must compromise on surplus maximization and efficiency the optimal agreement in a game with sufficiently strong strategic complements tends to maximize both the surplus and the probability of compliance especially if the game is symmetric

commodity and asset demands with and without quantity constraints in the labour market this paper reformulates the consumer s decision making problem in a temporary framework with and without quantity constraints in the labour market in such a way as to define a complete demand system which includes consumption labour and saving then based on american and canadian data 1948 1980 this extended complete demand system is estimated using a priori theoretical properties quantity constraints in the labour market cannot be rejected and marginal propensities to consume out of labour income are very different from the marginal propensities out of non labour income temporal separability is rejected and slutsky conditions are preserved

the food stamp participation and labor supply of married couples an empirical analysis of joint decisions this paper examines the effect of the food stamp program on intrafamily labor supply and program participation decisions married couples simultaneously choose the labor supply of the husband and wife and whether to participate in the food stamp program using data from the survey of income and program participation the author estimates a nested multinomial logit model simulations indicate smaller labor supply effects to changes in the food stamp benefit than the previous research which focused on single parents married couple program participation is found to be relatively responsive to changes in food stamp benefits

equilibrium in sealed high bid auctions there is a voluminous theoretical literature on sealed high bid auctions auctions in which bids are sealed and the high bidder pays his bid see for example vickrey 1961 myerson 1981 riley and samuelson 1981 milgrom and weber 1982 matthews 1983 maskin and riley 1984 holt 1980 cox smith and walker 1988 a critical property on which this literature relies is the existence of equilibrium in which buyers bidding strategies are monotonic in their types this enables the analyst to perform comparative statics as the distribution of types changes and to compare the welfare properties of the high bid auction with those of other auction institutions one case in which the existence of monotonic equilibrium is readily established is that in which buyers types are distributed smoothly independently and symmetrically in this case there exists a symmetric equilibrium one in which all bidders share the same bidding behaviour as a function of their valuations and this bid function is the solution to a first order differential equation

hours flexibility and retirement i introduction standard models of labor supply depict workers as choosing to work any positive amount of hours they wish at the competitive wage paid to persons of their type implicit in these models is the assumption that employers offer to workers at a particular wage a menu of infinitely many hours options from which workers may choose however this assumption seems fundamentally at odds with how the labor market functions in particular the distribution of weekly hours of work suggests that workers may be offered only a limited set of hours options by the employers 1 this study examines how employer imposed minimum hours of work requirements affect workers retirement decisions 2 we present a simple theoretical framework which shows that workers who cannot lower their hours of work in one period are more likely to retire by some subsequent date than workers not so constrained the intuition is straightforward given his characteristics and the wage he commands there is a particular hours level which a person desires to work in any period equivalently between any two time periods a worker initially working a given amount of hours desires that his hours change over time by a particular amount for workers with jobs that feature flexible hours the actual change in hours worked over time always perfectly matches the desired change if the worker desires to withdraw from the labor force then he does so if he desires to work fewer positive hours in the later period he changes his labor supply to precisely the desired level for workers with the same desired change in labor supply but who face hours constraints the only way to lower hours of work from one positive amount to another is to change jobs because such job changes are associated with transition costs the worker chooses from among a set of less than ideal options he can continue at the present job and be overemployed alternatively he can pay a transition cost and work the desired hours level in a new job or he can withdraw completely from the labor force thus unlike the worker whose hours are flexible the hours constrained worker retires both when he desires to work 0 h and when he wishes to work some positive amount less than he did previously but faces relatively high transition costs we tested the prediction that hours constrained workers are more likely to retire over time using a sample of retirement aged individuals from the health and retirement study hrs we found that a large fraction of workers aged 55 64 yr cannot lower their usual weekly hours of work in 1992 these constraints are prevalent for both men and women among people working different hours level and across all types of jobs exploiting the panel feature of the data and using a series of empirical tests we found that hours constrained workers are much more likely than their unconstrained peers to be retired by 1996 we document few differences in observed characteristics between constrained and unconstrained workers suggesting that the results do not derive from differences in latent retirement propensities across workers or to unmeasured job characteristics moreover we controlled carefully for demographic and job information we also conducted some simple tests to assess the likelihood that the results derive from sorting by job type constrained or unconstrained or simple measurement error and found that our main estimates continue to obtain the study s emphasis that hours constraints make it difficult for workers to satisfy changing labor supply preferences without changing jobs is also the main focus of altonji and paxson 1992 these authors showed that in a sample of prime aged women events likely to generate large changes in labor supply preferences such as the birth of a child or a child starting school tend to be associated with large changes in hours worked only for persons who change jobs

why do migrants return to poor countries evidence from philippine migrants responses to exchange rate shocks abstract this paper distinguishes between target earnings and life cycle motivations for return migration by examining how philippine migrants return decisions respond to major unexpected exchange rate changes in their overseas locations due to the asian financial crisis overall the evidence favors the life cycle explanation more favorable exchange rate shocks lead to fewer migrant returns a10 improvement in the exchange rate reduces the 12 month return rate by 1 4 percentage points however some migrants appear motivated by target earnings considerations in households with intermediate foreign earnings favorable exchange rate shocks have the least effect on return migration but lead to increases in household investment

household labour supply with rationing in spain this paper provides new empirical evidence on household labour supply with rationing to that end we use the latest spanish data in order to estimate three flexible functional forms namely the nles the quadratic and the hausman ruud forms and calculate the income and wage elasticities we find that the number of dependants has a negative effect on the labour supply of the female moreover the north and the east spanish regions have a clearly positive effect on the labour supply of the female whilst the north has the same effect on that of the male the elasticities of three functional forms are very similar male labour supply is slightly decreasing with the wage whilst for the female it is increasing leisure is a normal good for both spouses as expected whilst the labour hours are net substitutes

the probability of return migration migrants work effort and migrants performance abstract this paper demonstrates that differences in earnings between migrants and the native population may reflect differences in incentives rather than differences in characteristics the analysis indicates that in the presence of a positive probability of return migration migrants work effort is higher than that of comparable native born workers this differential may explain why even if all workers are perfectly homogeneous in skills migrants often outperform the native born workers in the receiving economy

global talent flows the global distribution of talent is highly skewed and the resources available to countries to develop and utilize their best and brightest vary substantially the migration of skilled workers across countries tilts the deck even further using newly available data the paper first reviews the landscape of global talent mobility which is both asymmetric and rising in importance next the determinants of global talent flows at the individual and firm levels are presented and some important implications are sketched third the national gatekeepers for skilled migration and broad differences in approaches used to select migrants for admission are reviewed looking forward the capacity of people firms and countries to successfully navigate this tangled web of global talent will be critical to their success

immigrant and emigrant earnings a longitudinal study this paper analyzes the relationship between earnings and the extent of assimilation cohort quality change and return migration experienced by the foreign born population the study uses the longitudinal data available in the survey of natural and social scientists and engineers the analysis reveals that there was a sizable decline in the skills of this population over the last two decades in addition the study shows that return migration is more likely among immigrants who did not perform well in the u s labor market

the economics of temporary migrations many migrations are temporary a fact that has often been ignored in the economic literature on migration such omission may be serious in that expected migration temporariness can impart a distinct dynamic element to immigrants economic behavior generating possible consequences for nonmigrants in both home and host countries in this paper we provide a thorough examination of the various aspects of temporary migrations that matter for the analysis of economic phenomena we demonstrate the extent of temporary migrations in population movements we show how temporariness can affect the various economic choices and how better data have improved both the measurement of nonpermanent migrations and the analyses of various aspects of migrant behavior we propose a general theoretical framework for modeling temporary migration decisions based on which we outline the various motives for temporariness while simultaneously reviewing related literature and available data sources we discuss the possible consequences of migration temporariness for nonmigrants in both home and host countries jel f22 f24 j11 j61 k37 o15

inequality aversion and marginal taxes the concept of a lower bound on optimal linear taxes is analyzed a marginal tax rate is defined to be optimal if the corresponding state of the economy is a welfare maximum for some social welfare function reflecting at least a minimal aversion to inequality the lower bound on optimal tax rates is proved to be strictly positive this tax rate is also calculated in a numerical example based on swedish data the value obtained is 29 per cent

endogenous price expectations as reference points in auctions the paper models auctions with bidders who have reference dependent payos the reference point is endogenised as the expected price of the good in the auction the model predicts that in equilibrium bidders both overbid and underbid in comparison to the standard bidding function without reference dependent utility the model predicts that more bidders overbid than underbid and that bidders bid more aggressively as the number of bidders or the reserve price increases finally it is shown perhaps surprisingly that revenue equivalence continues to hold between rst and second price

newsvendor competition under asymmetric cost information abstract we study the newsboy duopoly problem under asymmetric cost information we extend the lippman and mccardle 1997 of competitive newsboy to the case where the two firms are privately informed about their unit costs the market demand is initially split between two firms and the excess demand for each firm is reallocated to the rival firm we show the existence and uniqueness of a pure strategy equilibrium and characterize its structure the equilibrium conditions have an interesting recursive structure that enables an easy computation of the equilibrium order quantities presence of strategic interactions creates incentives to increase order quantities for all firm types except the type that has the highest possible unit cost consequently competition leads to higher total inventory in the industry however contrary to intuition this is only true when the firms are non identical a firm s equilibrium order quantity increases with a stochastic increase in the total industry demand or with an increase in his initial allocation of the total industry demand we demonstrate our model and results in an application in a dual sourcing procurement setting using data that obtained from a large manufacturing company finally we provide a full characterization of the equilibrium of the game for the special case of uniform demand and linear market shares

the impact of labour market dynamics on the return migration of immigrants using administrative panel data on the entire population of new labour immigrants to the netherlands we estimate the effects of individual labour market spells on immigration durations using the timing of events method the model allows for correlated unobserved heterogeneity across migration unemployment and employment processes we find that unemployment spells increase return probabilities for all immigrant groups while re employment spells typically delay returns

trade and economic impacts of destination based business cash flow taxes proposals for destination based business cash flow taxes dbcft that effectively combine a value added tax and a wage subsidy have received enormous attention in the united states and are being proposed as a major tax reform worldwide much controversy has focused on trade impacts but this paper shows that a dbcft would not create long term trade barriers or export subsidies if prices and wages are flexible it would leave business profits and rents untaxed providing an unambiguous benefit to foreign investors relative to an origin based corporate tax domestic wage earners would be compensated for higher prices by the wage deduction while the position of domestic investors would depend on whether their gains from abolition of origin based taxes outweighed their losses from higher consumer prices a key concern is small volatile and vulnerable net revenues even with high tax rates at current us consumption and labour shares a 20 corporate cash flow tax with a wage subsidy would generate less than 2 of gdp in net revenues which could be obtained with much less volatility from a 2 8 consumption tax alone under a dbcft revenues would become negative if consumption and labour shares returned to their historical norms or if difficult to tax sectors like owner occupied housing were excluded

supermodularity and complementarity in economics an elementary survey the literature on supermodular optimization and games is surveyed from the perspective of potential users in economics this methodology provides a new approach for comparative statics based only on critical assumptions and allows a general analysis of games with strategic complementarities the results are presented in a simplified yet rigourous manner without reference to lattice theory for the special case of one dimensional parameter and actions sets with the emphasis being on wide accessibility detailed applications are presented for well known models of consumer behavior monopoly pass through bertrand and cournot competition strategic r d search and matching wherever appropriate useful tricks for applications and comparative comments are inserted

functional forms for labor supply and commodity demands with and without quantity restrictions one of the most important current questions in economic analysis is whether or not labor markets clear in the short run to answer this it is necessary to be able to distinguish between restricted and unrestricted behavior by consumers supplying labor this paper investigates the forms of preferences which lie behind linear models of labor supply and derives the functional forms for commodity demands which accompany them both with and without quantity restrictions in the labor market simple linkages between restricted and unrestricted demands are also considered as is the question of perfect aggregation over consumers in the presence of quantity restrictions

unemployment and liquidity constraints summary we present a dynamic framework for the interaction between borrowing liquidity constraints and deviations of actual hours from desired hours both measured by discrete valued indicators and estimate it as a system of dynamic binary and ordered probit models with panel data from the panel study of income dynamics we analyze a household s propensity to be liquidity constrained by means of a dynamic binary probit model we analyze qualitative aspects of the conditions of employment namely whether the household head is involuntarily overemployed voluntarily employed or involuntarily underemployed or unemployed by means of a dynamic ordered probit model we focus on the possible interaction between the two types of constraints we estimate these models jointly using maximum simulated likelihood where we allow for individual random effects along with an autoregressive process for the general error term in each equation a novel feature of our method is that it allows for the random effects to be correlated with regressors in a time invariant fashion our results provide strong support for the basic theory of constrained behavior and the interaction between liquidity constraints and exogenous constraints on labor supply copyright 2007 john wiley sons ltd

a note on non parametric tests of consumer behaviour abstract this note extends the afriat diewert varian conditions for consistency of demand data with the maximization hypothesis to the case where the choice set is a finite union of convex sets applications include models with discrete goods regressive taxes decreasing block prices and fixed costs

robust comparative statics for non monotone shocks in large aggregative games a policy change that involves a redistribution of income or wealth is typically controversial affecting some people positively but others negatively in this paper we extend the robust comparative statics result for large aggregative games established by acemoglu and jensen 2010 49th ieee conference on decision and control 3133 3139 to possibly controversial policy changes in particular we show that both the smallest and the largest equilibrium values of an aggregate variable increase in response to a policy change to which individuals reactions may be mixed but the overall aggregate response is positive we provide sufficient conditions for such a policy change in terms of distributional changes in parameters

monotone comparative statics under uncertainty this paper analyzes monotone comparative statics predictions in several classes of stochastic optimization problems the main results characterize necessary and sufficient conditions for comparative statics predictions to hold based on properties of primitive functions that is utility functions and probability distributions the results apply when the primitives satisfy one of the following two properties i a single crossing property which arises in applications such as portfolio investment problems and auctions or ii log supermodularity which arises in the analysis of demand functions affiliated random variables stochastic orders and orders over risk aversion

rationalizability learning and equilibrium in games with strategic complementarities we study a rich class of noncooperative games that includes models of oligopoly competition macroeconomic coordination failures arms races bank runs technology adoption and diffusion r d competition pretrial bargaining coordination in teams and many others for all these games the sets of pure strategy nash equilibria correlated equilibria and rationalizable strategies have identical bounds also for a class of models of dynamic adaptive choice behavior that encompasses both best response dynamics and bayesian learning the players choices lie eventually within the same bounds these bounds are shown to vary monotonically with certain exogenous parameters we study the class of noncooperative supermodular games introduced by topkis 1979 and further analyzed by vives 1985 1989 who also pointed out the importance of these games in industrial economics supermodular games are games in which each player s strategy set is partially ordered the marginal returns to increasing one s strategy rise with increases in the competitors strategies so that the game exhibits strategic complementarity 2 and if a player s strategies are multidimensional marginal returns to any one com ponent of the player s strategy rise with increases in the other components this class turns out to encompass many of the most important economic applications of noncooperative game theory in macroeconomics diamond s 1982 search model and bryant s 1983 1984 rational expectations models can be represented as supermodular games in each of these models more activity by some members of the economy raises the returns to increased levels of activity by others in oligopoly theory some models of bertrand oligopoly with differentiated products qualify as supermodu lar games in these games when a firm s competitors raise their prices the marginal profitability of the firm s own price increase rises a similar structure is present in games of new technology adoption such as those of dybvig and spatt 1983 farrell and saloner 1986 and katz and shapiro 1986 when more users hook into a communication system or more manufacturers adopt an interface standard the marginal return to others of doing the same often rises similarly in some specifications of the bank runs model introduced by diamond and dybvig 1983 when more depositors withdraw their funds from a bank it is more worthwhile for other depositors to do the same in the warrant exercise

applied welfare analysis with discrete choice models a comment abstract small and rosen extend conventional welfare analysis to a variety of non standard consumer choice problems this paper unifies their results and demonstrates that they are all straightforward consequences of the envelope theorem additional examples include progressive and regressive taxes and fixed costs

managing water supply shortage interruption vs pricing abstract supply shortage is a common problem faced by a consumer solutions for allocating the limited supply include rationing queuing interruption and pricing while previous research has examined the welfare losses generated by each solution there is little evidence on their relative magnitudes within a common framework the objective of this paper is tospecify a model of consumer behaviour under service interruption to estimate the exact welfare loss of service interruption the same model is used to estimate the loss of a price increase intended to resolve a supply shortage using water consumption data collected for hong kong we find that relative to pricing service interruption is inefficient for water shortage management

monotone equilibria in signaling games abstract we examine the monotonicity of the sender s equilibrium strategy with respect to her type in signaling games we show that when the sender s return from the receiver s action depends on her type the spence mirrlees condition cannot rule out equilibria in which a higher type sender chooses a strictly lower action than a lower type we provide sufficient conditions under which all equilibria are monotone which require that the sender s payoff is decreasing in her action is increasing in the receiver s action and has strictly increasing differences between her type and the action profile we apply our sufficient conditions to education signaling advertising and warranty provision