the impacts of urban pricing on social and spatial inequalities the case study of lyon france with the aim of making a city sustainable this paper evaluates the impact of setting up urban toll on inequalities we use several indicators gini theil and atkinson indices to measure changes in the concentration of incomes and gravity based accessibility in the case of the lyon metropolitan area france we simulate a cordon pricing and evaluate its impacts on inequalities we adopt a comparison based approach to reduce the bias resulting from the spatial division in agreement with the literature we show that different inequality indicators produce contrasted and sometimes contradictory results both at the scale of zones or metropolitan level results from theil and atkinson indicators point out introducing a toll can reduce inequalities in the most peripheral zones although we observe an accessibility improvement particularly for central zones the first ring adjacent to the toll zone is the most adversely affected by toll

the well being of the elderly and wage arrears in russia about one third of households with elderly were not paid their wages during the mid 1990s in russia applying matching estimations to a nationally representative survey the study shows that wage arrears had detrimental effects on the well being of the elderly in these families salaries in households with wage arrears dropped by almost two thirds income fell by more than one third and poverty doubled behavioral responses were only partly effective the net revenue loss amounted to five sixths of the wage shock for men and nine tenths of the wage shock for women the elderly cut back on food expenses by reducing food purchases and adjusting their diet towards cheaper calories economising on expenses equal to around one quarter of the wage reduction caloric and protein intakes dropped although less than income and the nutritional content of food consumption with regard to vitamins and minerals deteriorated wage arrears worsened male health more than female health even though the decline in income was comparable functional limitations rose by 8 for men and 3 for women and self rated health declined by 2 5 for men and 0 5 for women old age men with arrears were almost twice as likely to die before the next survey round and functional limitations of surviving men rose by more than 10 by contrast there was no impact on the next round s health status of old age women a rich data set is used to discount alternative explanations including feedback from health to income other economic factors health service access health behavior and environmental conditions jel i12 i30 j14 j30

the information content of annual earnings releases a trading volume approach this paper reports the results of an empirical examination of the relations between the volume of securities traded the magnitude of surprises in annual earnings announcements and firm size although early trading volume studies e g beaver 1968 kiger 1972 and foster 1973 replicated basic information content studies with findings similar to those based on security prices we should not expect that security price and trading volume research will continue to yield identical results when more refined hypotheses are tested trading volume reflects investors activity by summing all market trades whereas security prices reflect an aggregation or averaging of investors beliefs as a result we will on occasion observe differences between price and volume reactions to earnings announcements as did morse 1981 this study extends the recent trend toward tests of more refined hypotheses by using a larger sample to examine the associations between unexpected earnings firm size and trading volume and testing whether such associations can be generalized across fiscal year end dates and stock exchange listing my results show a continuous positive relationship between trading

the value of value pricing of roads second best pricing and product differentiation abstract some road pricing demonstrations use value pricing in which travelers can choose between a free but congested roadway and a priced roadway recent research has uncovered a potentially serious problem for such demonstrations second best tolls may be far lower than those typically charged and from a welfare perspective the latter may be worse than not pricing at all that research however assumes that all travelers are identical and it therefore neglects the benefits of product differentiation using a model with two user groups we find that accounting for heterogeneity in value of time is important in evaluating constrained policies and improves the relative performance of policies that offer differential prices

the dynamics of urban traffic congestion and the price of parking we consider commuting in a congested urban area while an efficient time varying toll may eliminate queuing a toll may not be politically feasible we study the benefit of a substitute a parking fee at the workplace an optimal time varying parking fee is charged at zero rate when there is queuing and eliminates queuing when the rate is non zero within certain limits inability to charge some drivers for parking does not reduce the potential welfare gain drivers who cannot be charged travel when there is queuing in some cases interaction between morning and evening commutes can be exploited to remove queuing completely

road pricing with optimal mass transit abstract this paper considers the second best policy problem that arises when auto travel is priced below its marginal cost and there is a substitute mass transit mode using analytical methods a global comparison is made between the second best levels of transit service and the fare and their first best levels the fact that the results are global permits an application to road pricing not possible with the local results of kraus 2003

the possibility of informationally efficient markets abstract a rational expectations equilibrium with positive demand for financial information does exist under fully revealing asset price contrary to a wide held conjecture whereas a continuum of investors is inconsistent with fully revealing equilibrium finitely many investors with average portfolios demand information in equilibrium if they can adjust portfolio size in an additive signal return model more information diminishes the expected excess return of a risky asset so that investors who only have a choice of portfolio composition or whose asset endowments strongly differ from the average portfolio are worse off under fully revealing price information market equilibria both with and without information acquisition are pareto efficient

analysts forecasts as proxies for investor beliefs in empirical research abstract we analyze how analysts forecasts relate to investor beliefs and describe the implications of these relations for price and volume reactions to earnings surprises we show that dispersion among forecasts does not fully capture investor uncertainty we also show how the relations between market reactions and forecast properties differ under the alternative assumptions of exogenous and endogenous private information acquisition finally the analysis suggests refined tests for volume reactions at the time of an announcement our results indicate that the model is useful for understanding and interpreting empirical work and developing empirical tests of market reactions to announcements

a class of monotone economies in which rational expectations equilibria exist but prices do not reveal all information abstract some economies having excess demands which depend monotonically on agents information signals are examined if there are no multiple market clearing prices then these economies have strict rational expectations equilibria in which equilibrium prices alone do not transmit all information

a theory of trading volume a theory of trading volume is developed based on assumptions that market agents frequently revise their demand prices and randomly encounter potential trading partners the model describes two distinct ways informational events affect trading volume one is consistent with conjectures made by empirical researchers that investor disagreement leads to increased trading but the observation of abnormal trading volume does not necessarily imply disagreement and volume can increase even if investors interpret the information identically if they also have had divergent prior expectations simulation tests support the model and are used to contrast the random pairing environment with costless market clearing volume is lower in the costly market and volume increases caused by an informational event persist after the event period this is consistent with existing empirical evidence and suggests that markets do not immediately clear all orders or that investors have demands to recontract

volatility spread and stock market response to earnings announcements abstract using a broad sample of earnings announcements we find a monotonic increase in the spread between call and put implied volatilities as it gets closer to the earnings announcement date the steady build up of volatility spread in the days leading up to the announcement date coupled with the predictive power of cumulative abnormal implied volatility spread on subsequent announcement returns suggests that informed traders are the driving force behind the option market activities prior to earnings announcements such informed trading as proxied by the abnormal implied volatility spread increases rather than decreases the stock market response to earnings announcements after controlling for an array of firm and announcement characteristics this effect is most pronounced when the pre earnings option trading volume is heightened overall our findings lend strong support to the notion that informed options trading immediately before earnings announcements helps alleviate the stock market under reaction to earnings announcements and make it closer to a complete response

aggregate income shocks and infant mortality in the developing world health and income are strongly correlated both within and across countries yet the extent to which improvements in income have a causal effect on health status remains controversial the authors investigate whether short term fluctuations in aggregate income affect infant mortality using an unusually large data set of 1 7 million births in 59 developing countries the authors show a large negative association between per capita gdp and infant mortality female infant mortality is more sensitive than male infant mortality to negative economic shocks suggesting that policies that protect the health status of female infants may be especially important during economic downturns

environmental and socio economic feasibility assessment of rice straw conversion to power and ethanol in thailand abstract technically 26 32 of rice straw residues accounting for about 5 6 mt year can be used for energy in thailand the quantified environmental and socio economic benefits of this potential renewable energy source could be a driving force noted by the decision makers and communities converting rice straw residues to electricity or ethanol would directly increase the standard of living of regional households in terms of expenditure fulfillments direct contributions to the housing healthcare education and necessities as well as the share of straw logistics on regional wise basis are estimated furthermore one environmental and four socio economic indicators are quantified for 1 mj of dry rice straw delivered and used in assumed commercial 10 mwe and 24 ml ethanol conversion facilities using the same yearly quantity of 116 000 t rice straw all the indicators show favor in the ethanol option comparison ratios of value added of straw to energy life cycle ghg reductions net currency savings direct value added gdp and employment direct indirect unemployed beneficiaries for ethanol and power options would be respectively 1 0 07 1 0 89 1 0 96 1 0 11 and 1 0 35 total yearly employment beneficiaries of 15 000 18 000 and 41 000 51 000 are expected for power and ethanol options respectively

rational expectations in microeconomic models an overview abstract this paper is an expository introduction to several topics of current research in the general equilibrium theory of rational expectations more specifically we discuss the existence of exact and approximate rational expectations equilibria the implementation of equilibria the behavior of learning and smoothing processes by which traders construct expectations from repeated observations of the market and the lagged use of the information revealed by prices in an intertemporal sequence of markets the purpose of this discussion is to introduce papers on these topics appearing in the journal of economic theory symposium on rational expectations in microeconomic models

does anticipated information impose a cost on risk averse investors a test of the hirshleifer effect this paper theoretically and empirically investigates how the risk of future adverse price changes created by the anticipated arrival of information influences risk averse investors trading decisions in institutionally imperfect capital markets specifically i examine how the selling activity of individual investors immediately following an earnings announcement is influenced by the tradeoff between risk sharing benefits of immediate trade and explicit transaction costs imposed on such trades consistent with my theoretically derived predictions i find that investors current trading decisions are less sensitive to the incremental transaction costs created by short term capital gains taxes on trading profits as both the duration and intensity of the risk of future adverse price changes increase this evidence is consistent with an incremental cost to investors that results from the revelation of precise information which is commonly referred to as the hirshleifer effect

market implication of predisc10sure information size and exchange effects differential market reactions to earnings announcements can inter alia be ascribed to the extent to which such announcements entail surprise i e unexpected information the greater the predisclosure information the less the surprise element in earnings announcements since there is no direct measure of predisclosure information the literature has utilized two different proxies i firm size the size effect atiase 1980 1985 and ii exchange listing the exchange effect grant 1980 atiase 1980 argues that private predisclosure information production and dissemination are an increasing function of firm size capitalization if so the amount of unexpected information conveyed to the market by actual earnings reports should be inversely related to firm size other things equal empirical evidence in atiase 1985 supports this hypothesis grant 1980 found that for otc firms the average price revaluation associated with annual earnings announcements is significantly higher in the report week relative to both nonannouncement

pricing and congestion economic principles relevant to pricing roads u k expenditures on roads or road costs average l4 34 billion per year from the 24 6 million vehicles registered road taxes of l12 7 billion were collected 2 9 times road costs from 1978 88 the average daily traffic on each km of road rose by 34 percent with a consequent serious increase in congestion road space is a valuable and scarce resource and road users should logically pay the marginal social cost if they are to make efficient transport and location decisions the paper estimates these costs and the appropriate charges for britain and identifies the major policy issues total road charges ignoring hard to quantify accident costs should yield l13 8 billion of which congestion charges would be l12 8 billion though close to road taxes in total amount replacing current taxes by road pricing would reduce congestion improve public transport and avoid perverse consequences from road expansion copyright 1990 by oxford university press

price inference in small markets this paper investigates the effects of market size on the ability of price to aggregate traders private information to account for heterogeneity in correlation of trader values a gaussian model of double auction is introduced that departs from the standard information structure based on a common fundamental shock the paper shows that markets are informationally efficient only if correlations of values coincide across all bidder pairs as a result with heterogeneously interdependent values price informativeness may not increase monotonically with market size as a necessary and sufficient condition for the monotonicity price informativeness increases with the number of traders if the implied reduction in the absolute value of an average correlation statistic of an information structure is sufficiently small

home bias in equity portfolios inflation hedging and international capital market equilibrium we test whether the home bias in equity portfolios is caused by investors trying to hedge inflation risk the empirical evidence is consistent with this motive only if investors have very high levels of risk tolerance and equity returns are negatively correlated with domestic inflation we then develop a model of international portfolio choice and equity market equilibrium that integrates inflation risk and deadweight costs using this model we estimate the levels of costs required to generate the observed home bias in portfolios consistent with different levels of risk aversion for a level of risk aversion consistent with standard estimates of the domestic equity market risk premium these costs are about a few percent per annum greater than observable costs such as withholding taxes thus the home bias cannot be explained by either inflation hedging or direct observable costs of international investment unless investors have very low levels of risk aversion article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

predisclosure information firm capitalization and security price behavior around earnings announcements several studies on the relationship between earnings reports and security price behavior provide evidence suggesting that a significant portion of the information revealed through earnings reports is reflected in security prices prior to the report month e g ball and brown 1968 and brown and kennelly 1972 this has been attributed at least partly to the existence of other more timely sources of information which allow market agents to forecast earnings prior to their release the evidence above reflects an average finding across all firms one question of interest is whether there are significant systematic crosssectional differences in the security price reactions to earnings announcements of firms which are associated with specific firm characteristics that lead to differential amounts of predisclosure information this study focuses on firm size capitalization as one such characteristic a firm

time varying risk premia volatility and technical trading rule profits evidence from foreign currency futures markets abstract this paper re examines the efficiency of foreign currency futures markets by evaluating the role of time varying risk premia and volatility in explaining technical trading rule profits the results show that large parts of the technical rule profits can be explained by the time varying risk premia estimated from a general model for the conditional capm the bootstrap distributions for the profits under the null model average one third to one half of the actual profits and enclose the actual profits well within the 90 confidence intervals time varying conditional volatility explains an additional 10 of the profits

rational expectations equilibrium an alternative approach we study a dynamic market process in which traders condition their beliefs about payoff relevant parameters on past endogenously generated market data and current exogenous data we say that a market process is informative if the beliefs of traders who receive only endogenously generated market data converge almost surely to the true parameter value our main result is that under standard regularity hypotheses the generic market process is informative we define an equilibrium as the limit points of the market process journal of economic literature classification numbers 02 1 026 c 1984 academic press inc

a trading approach to testing for predictability we propose a market timing test for conditional mean independence of financial returns the new excess predictability ep test statistic has an interpretation of a properly normalized return of a certain trading strategy we discuss similarities of the ep test to the popular directional accuracy da test of pesaran and timmermann power properties of the ep test are advantageous and size properties are comparable to those of the da test we illustrate application of the test using weekly data on the s p500 index

disagreement and learning dynamic patterns of trade we study volume dynamics when there are disagreements among investors for that purpose we develop a dynamic model in which differences in the interpretation of public information lead to trade we obtain a simple linear equilibrium in closed form in which risk averse agents take into account future trading opportunities when solving for their optimal portfolio allocation using this framework we then study what restrictions on the disagreement process are needed to generate empirically observed patterns in volume and prices we show that having infrequent but major disagreements leads to autocorrelation in volume and correlation between volume and absolute price changes when agents disagree on past news but agree on the interpretation of current news there is learning and the convergence of agents opinions leads to trade

has mercantilism reduced urban poverty in ssa perception of boom bust and the china africa trade in lome and bamako this paper addresses the immediate impacts of the china africa trade on africa s informal traders and its longer term impact on urban poverty based on a comparison of the major cities of two west african countries and drawing on semi structured interviews with traders and on schedule based interviews with key informants in government business and the informal trade sector the findings are that the increase in imports from china initially broadened access to trading for the poor creating short term improvements in livelihoods but competition is driving down profit margins and restricting the trade to a survival mechanism for many today thus it has provided limited long term potential as an economic platform for national development and poverty reduction the findings are discussed in terms of structuration theory and in terms of alternative conceptualizations of informal trade in africa

the significance of technical trading rule profits in the foreign exchange market a bootstrap approach abstract in this paper we present new evidence on the profitability and statistical significance of technical trading rules in the foreign exchange market we utilize a new data base currency futures contracts for the period 1976 1990 and we implement a new testing procedure based on bootstrap methodology our results suggest that simple technical trading rules have very often led to profits that are highly unusual splitting the entire sample period into three 5 year periods reveals that on average the profitability of some trading rules declined in the latest period although profits remained positive on average and significant in many cases jel f31 f47 g15

market reform and mortality in transition economies abstract the striking increase in mortality rates in russia in the early 1990s occurred simultaneously with the government s erratic attempts to introduce market reforms other transition economies such as poland and the czech republic avoided increases in death rates while they implemented rapid and deep reforms is there a link between mortality and the speed or depths of reforms as suggested by other researchers e g sachs 1996 american economic review 86 2 128 233 this paper uses aggregate data on 22 transition economies for 1989 1994 to investigate this question while the relationship between an index of reform progress and death rates is ambiguous death rates in these countries are correlated with measures of reform success such as gdp growth and the inflation rate higher crime rates and higher unemployment rates are also related to larger increases in death rates

using genetic algorithms to find technical trading rules1 abstract we use a genetic algorithm to learn technical trading rules for the s p 500 index using daily prices from 1928 to 1995 after transaction costs the rules do not earn consistent excess returns over a simple buy and hold strategy in the out of sample test periods the rules are able to identify periods to be in the index when daily returns are positive and volatility is low and out when the reverse is true these latter results can largely be explained by low order serial correlation in stock index returns

impact of firm performance expectations on ceo turnover and replacement decisions abstract our analysis suggests that boards focus on deviation from expected performance rather than performance alone in making the ceo turnover decision especially when there is agreement less dispersion among analysts about the firm s earnings forecast or there are a large number of analysts following the firm in addition our results suggest that boards are more likely to appoint a ceo that will change firm policies and strategies i e an outsider when forecasted 5 year eps growth is low and there is greater uncertainty more dispersion among analysts about the firm s long term forecasts

stabilization and growth in transition economies the early experience this paper analyzes the growth and stabilization experience in 26 transition economies in eastern europe the former soviet union and mongolia for the period 1989 1994 inflation rates have declined significantly in most countries following an inflation stabilization program growth resumes after stabilization occurs typically with a lag of about two years reducing inflation thus appears to be a precondition for growth an econometric analysis of the short run determinants of inflation and growth illustrates the key roles of fixed exchange rates improved fiscal balances and structural reforms in spurring growth and lowering inflation and confirms that inflation stabilization programs have been beneficial for growth even after controlling for structural reforms

testing for market timing ability abstract in this paper we examine the henriksson merton test of market timing and its potential usefulness in evaluating investment advice the paper proposes a natural extension of the test that is valid under more general assumptions about the distribution of asset returns we show that the henriksson merton test and its more general counterpart are special cases of standard tests of market rationality and efficiency both tests are applied to a group of foreign exchange advisory services

financial returns and efficiency as seen by an artificial technical analyst abstract we introduce trading rules which are selected by an artificially intelligent agent who learns from experience an artificial technical analyst these rules restrict the data mining concerns associated with the use of simple technical trading rules as model evaluation devices and are good at recognising subtle regularities in return processes the relationship between the efficiency of financial markets and the efficacy of technical analysis is investigated and it is shown that the artificial technical analyst can be used to provide a quantitative measure of market efficiency we estimate this measure on the djia daily index from 1962 to 1986 and draw implications for the optimal behaviour of certain classes of investors it is also shown that the structure of technical trading rules commonly used is consistent with utility maximisation for risk neutral agents and in a myopic sense even for risk averse agents

money as a medium of exchange in an economy with artificially intelligent agents abstract we study the exchange economies of kiyotaki and wright 1989 in which agents must use a commodity or fiat money as a medium of exchange if trade is to occur our agents are artificially intelligent and are modeled as using classifier systems to make decisions in the assignment of credit within the classifier systems we introduce some innovations designed to study sequential decision problems in a multi agent environment for most economies that we have simulated trading and consumption patterns converge to a stationary nash equilibrium even if agents start with random rules in economies with multiple equilibria the only equilibrium that emerges in our simulations is the one in which goods with low storage costs play the role of medium of exchange i e the fundamental equilibrium of kiyotaki and wright

creating urban social capital some evidence from informal traders in nairobi the poverty and dramatic alteration in geographical composition of african cities have been associated with rapid urbanisation the growth of the informal economy and migration the latter has sepa

demographic change in the former soviet union during the transition period abstract this paper examines patterns of mortality and other demographic changes across the former soviet union using regional data from the early 1990s a simultaneous equations model of fertility marriage divorce infant mortality and abortion is estimated as a function of economic and social variables the paper then looks at determinants of life expectancy and specific causes of death demographic scenarios are then forecast on the basis of specific economic environments these forecasts in turn are used to forecast life expectancies in the coming decades in plausible environments there is little reason to anticipate a rapid recovery in male or female life expectancies while further declines in fertility appear imminent

charts noise and fundamentals in the london foreign exchange market this paper presents some empirical evidence on the prevalence perceived importance and nature of chartist or technical analysis in the london foreign exchange market if noise traders see e g de long et al i987 are defined as those speculators who do not base their trading strategies on a consideration of market fundamentals then it clearly encompasses those traders who employ chart analysis i e those who base their strategies on the analysis and extrapolation of past price movements alone

the global and local dimensions of place making remaking shanghai as a world city shanghai the largest socialist industrial city in china is now experiencing dramatic restructuring under global and local forces this paper provides a preliminary account of remaking this city into a world city the case study suggests the tremendous and pervasive impact of globalisation on the city in transitional economies although it is still not comparable with a truly global city the growth of inward investment particularly its penetration into real estate development has exerted direct impacts on the urban structure it is argued that however that this global influence can only be realised through the coincidence of indigenous changes in the political economy system specifically the willingness of the central government to give more autonomy to local governments the new policy to set up a window for china s open policy the incentive for making money from selling the space the injection of public money into infrastructure and fierce promotional development strategies all contributed to the process of urban restructuring the effect of combined global and local changes has led to an extremely optimistic growth atmosphere and a building boom since the mid 1990s shanghai highlights the local as well as the global dimensions of urban change in the post socialist economies

pricing efficiency and information use in risky markets information has economic value if it helps estimate the value of something both individuals and society at large are interested in the extent to which information about an object s value is contained in its market price apart from distributional issues society s interest is that price guide resource allocation so as to maximize value weighted production prices that would induce such efficient resource use are themselves efficient the purpose of the present paper is to distinguish various notions of an efficient price and to discuss problems in the assessment and achievement of pricing efficiency emphasis is placed on the information content and time domain of prices

estimating the welfare effect of congestion taxes the critical importance of other distortions within the transport system abstract this paper extends the first best analysis of peak period congestion pricing to account for interactions with other distortions within the transport system including congestion on unpriced routes accident and pollution externalities suboptimal transit pricing and gasoline taxes we illustrate how the presence of each of these distortions changes the welfare effect of a congestion tax over a wide range of parameter scenarios in all cases the welfare changes are potentially significant implying that these distortions are important to consider in an economic evaluation of congestion taxes

urban growth in developing countries a review of current trends and a caution regarding existing forecasts summary the purpose of this paper is to clarify the nature of the on going urban transition in developing countries the quality of the available data and the uncertainty of existing urban forecasts although the recently released united nations publication world urbanization prospects is an invaluable resource for those interested in studying urban change the data in the report are somewhat deceptive in their apparent completeness and beyond the narrow confines of technical demography there is a great deal of misunderstanding and misreporting about what these data mean and how they should be interpreted for example while the scale of urban change is unprecedented and the nature and direction of urban change is more dependent on the global economy than ever before many aspects of the traditional distinction between urban and rural are becoming redundant this paper provides a broad overview of the available evidence on patterns and trends in urban growth in developing countries highlighting regional differences where appropriate the paper also examines the quality of past urban population projections and finds that there has been considerable diversity in their quality by geographic region level of development and size of country 2003 elsevier ltd all rights reserved

trading volume reactions to annual accounting earnings announcements the incremental role of predisclosure information asymmetry abstract this study provides empirical evidence regarding the effect of annual accounting earnings announcements on investors trading behavior we find that the magnitude of trading volume reaction is an increasing function of both the magnitude of the associated price reaction and the level of predisclosure information asymmetry these results are consistent with kim and verrecchia s 1991a theoretical trading volume proposition

institutional ownership differential predisclosure precision and trading volume at announcement dates abstract this study examines the relation between ownership structure as revealed by the percentage of outstanding shares held by institutional investors and trading volume at earnings announcement dates we find that volume response as a function of institutional ownership is quadratic with the quadratic curve that reaches a maximum at around 50 institutional ownership when risk tolerances are identical across investor types such a relation is consistent with kim and verrecchia s 1991a proposition that trading volume response to public announcements increases with the level of cross investor variation in precision of private predisclosure information

sustainable urban livelihoods and marketplace social capital crisis and strategy in petty trade urban growth has been accompanied by the development of bimodal labour markets and increasing inequalities in both north and south in southern cities many of the poor have turned to the informal sector in particular to street trade this has resulted in a multiplicity of urban conflicts and has led to pressure on urban managers to undertake formalisation for which an increasingly developmental approach has been advocated nevertheless for traders the formalisation of street trade has very uneven outcomes the starting point for this article is the premise that not enough is known about the social fabric upon which trading careers depend adopting sustainable livelihoods as a conceptual framework and drawing on social capital theory four questions are addressed how do trading careers survive over time are there differences in the survival strategies for which social capital is employed among traders operating in different political cultural and socioeconomic contexts in the new processes of urba

information value and investor wealth the case of earnings announcements this paper empirically investigates the relation between investor wealth and the value of annual and quarterly earnings announcements as implied by 1 the behavior of mean stock trade transaction sizes at announcement dates and 2 transaction size stratified trading activity in postannouncement time periods announcement period mean transaction sizes are found to exceed expected mean transactions sizes estimated from trading activity occurring in nonannouncement periods this result is attributed to a greater relative trading response to earnings announcements by wealthier investors consistent with ohlson s 1975 proposition that information value increases with investor wealth in a security market setting further evidence of a positive relation between value and wealth is found when postearnings announcement stock transactions are stratified by share size into three strata where the first stratum small stratum is transactions of 100 and 200 shares the second stratum large stratum is transactions of 300 to 900 shares and the third stratum institutional

price and trading volume reaction surrounding earnings announcements a closer examination the process of information dissemination and interpretation in securities markets is very complex and mostly unobservable while changes in prices and the amount of trading that takes place at the market level provide evidence of information processing verrecchia 1981 demonstrated that these are not sufficient to describe completely the dissemination of information and its interpretation by investors a descriptive study of price changes and trading volume however may still provide some insights into how investors react to information this paper is an empirical investigation of price changes and trading volume during the days surrounding the announcement of quarterly and annual earnings in the wall street journal wsj in the original paper investigating trading volume and price changes surrounding earnings announcements beaver 1968 was primarily concerned with whether the annual earnings announcement had information content i e led to changes in investors assessments of the probability distribution of future returns if there were any significant price changes and or trading volume during the week of the announcement then the annual earnings announcement was assumed to have had

the existence of fully rational expectations approximate equilibria with noisy price observations abstract nonrevealing fully rational expectations approximate equilibria exist in microeconomic pure exchange economies in which uninformed agents have suitably dispersed noisy price observations such traders maximize a state dependent expected utility conditional on the price vector they observe the distributions of noisy price observations and the correct equilibrium relationship between states of the world and prices in equilibrium aggregate excess demand is small with high probability in every state of the world and its expectation is also small this magnitude diminishes as the noisy price observations become more accurate equilibria are obtained by applying a fixed point argument to state dependent excess demand functions which are smooth because of the noisy price observations

pre announcement and event period private information abstract pre announcement information is private information gathered in anticipation of a public disclosure event period information is private information useful in conjunction with the announcement itself typically rational models of trade are based exclusively on one type of information such models are less descriptive of real market settings and misspecified empirically therefore we introduce a model of rational trade with both features and discuss its implications

informational efficiency and information subsets this paper proposes a new definition of the efficient markets hypothesis with respect to information which is more formal and precise than those of rubinstein 13 fama 4 jensen 6 and beaver 1 and which fits well as a framework for interpreting the many tests of the efficient markets hypothesis in the literature security markets are here considered efficient with respect to information set if and only if revealing to all agents would change neither equilibrium prices nor portfolios in addition to other desirable features this definition has the subset property efficiency with respect to implies efficiency with respect to any subset of

efficient congestion tolls in the presence of unpriced congestion a peak and off peak simulation model abstract this paper develops a congestion pricing model to examine efficient congestion tolls for an urban highway facility that resembles california state route 91 the highway that has been subject to congestion tolls since december 27 1995 two lanes out of six each way are subject to congestion tolls and the other four lanes are not the simulation model combines the economic theories of second best pricing of transportation facilities and peak load pricing and considers both welfare maximizing and profit maximizing cases the simulation results show that the second best peak period toll is quite low and that the welfare gains from the toll are modest compared to a regime in which all lanes are subject to tolls

has the information content of quarterly earnings announcements declined in the past three decades this paper examines changes in the information content of earnings over the past three decades using the two metrics from beaver 1968 abnormal trading volume and abnormal return volatility we find no evidence of a decline in the information content of earnings announcements over the past three decades as measured by both abnormal trading volume and return volatility around quarterly earnings announcements if anything our results suggest an increase over time in the informativeness of quarterly earnings announcements variables reflecting changes in firm specific factors account for a portion of the observed increase

projected demand and supply for various foods in west africa implications for investments and food policy abstract this paper a summarizes recent evidence of changes in dietary patterns in the 15 ecowas countries of west africa over the past 30 years and the forces driving those changes in this paper the term west africa refers to the 15 countries that are members of the economic community of west african states ecowas benin burkina faso cape verde cote d ivoire the gambia ghana guinea guinea bissau liberia mali niger nigeria senegal sierra leone and togo b uses expenditure elasticity estimates derived from budget consumption studies in 8 of these countries burkina faso cote d ivoire ghana mali niger nigeria senegal and togo and hypotheses about alternative income growth trajectories to develop scenarios about the evolution of demand for various foods over the period 2010 2040 c compares the projected demand growth with projection of production growth in key commodities to identify potential or increasing demand supply gaps and d derives implications for needed investments and policies regarding different commodities and components of the west african agrifood system including identifying gaps in the current african union led comprehensive africa agriculture development caadp programs the analysis shows that in absolute terms production shortfalls relative to demand for starchy staples particularly rice and wheat will continue to pose a major challenge for ecowas countries in relative terms however imbalances between domestic production and demand will increase more quickly for foods with high income elasticities of demand such as meat dairy products seafood fruits and vegetables and vegetable oils urban demand will grow two to four times faster than rural demand depending on the commodity putting increased pressure on already stressed urban food marketing systems substantial variations in supply demand gaps across countries suggest that more fluid regional trade could help individual countries cope with these challenges the findings also suggest that the focus of food policies in west africa historically on starchy staples particularly cereals needs to broaden to include a range of higher value products for which demand is likely to increase very rapidly in the near future

efficiency of experimental security markets with insider information an application of rational expectations models the study reports on the ability of competing models of market information integration and dissemination to explain the behavior of simple laboratory markets for a one priced security returns to the security depended upon a randomly drawn state of nature some agents insiders whose identity was unknown to other agents knew the state before the markets opened with replication of market conditions the predictions of a fully revealing rational expectations model are relatively accurate prices adjusted immediately to near rational expectations prices profits of insiders were virtually indistinguishable from non insiders and efficiency levels converged to near 100 percent

the relationship between daily u s and japanese equity prices evidence from spot versus futures markets abstract the daily and overnight transmission of equity prices between the u s and japan is examined in this paper this study documents that the use of the opening value of an equity index to represent equity prices at the open is unlikely to be reliable and the calculated opening values of the nikkei 225 and especially the s p500 indexes mostly reflect prior days closing prices unlike prior studies this paper accounts for this problem of non synchronous trading at the open and finds that u s equity prices do not lead japanese equity prices as both u s and japanese opening equity prices reflect overnight price changes in the other market

insider trading in a rational expectations economy it is often argued that efficiency considerations require society to freely permit insider trading in this article an opposing efficiency argument is formalized the model incorporates an investment stage followed by a trading stage if outsiders expect insiders to take advantage of them in trading outsiders will reduce their investment the insiders loss from this diminished investor confidence may more than offset their trading gains consequently a prohibition on insider trading may effect a pareto improvement insiders are made better off if they can precommit not to trade on their privileged information govemment regulation accomplishes exactly this jel 022 026 313 the traditional rationale articulated for insider trading regulation and other securities law is that such rules promote confidence in markets indeed president franklin d roosevelt justified the first major u s securities legislation by saying it should give impetus to honest dealing in securities and thereby bring back public confidence similar language is still invoked half a century later in connection with enforcement efforts against insider trading and in proposals for tightened stock

the relation between price changes and trading volume a survey this paper reviews previous and current research on the relation between price changes and trading volume in financial markets and makes four contributions first two empiri cal relations are established volume is positively related to the magnitude of the price change and in equity markets to the price change per se second previous theoretical research on the price volume relation is summarized and critiqued and major insights are emphasized third a simple model ofthe price volume relation is proposed that is consis tent with several seemingly unrelated or contradictory observations and fourth several directions for future research are identified

uncovering the distribution of motorists preferences for travel time and reliability we apply recent econometric advances to study the distribution of commuters preferences for speedy and reliable highway travel our analysis applies mixed logit to combined revealed and stated preference data on commuter choices of whether to pay a toll for congestion free express travel we find that motorists exhibit high values of travel time and reliability and substantial heterogeneity in those values we suggest that road pricing policies designed to cater to such varying preferences can improve efficiency and reduce the disparity of welfare impacts compared with recent pricing experiments

why don t we agree evidence from a social network of investors we study sources of investor disagreement using sentiment of investors from a social media investing platform combined with information on the users investment approaches e g technical fundamental we examine how much of overall disagreement is driven by different information sets versus differential interpretation of information by studying disagreement within and across investment approaches overall disagreement is evenly split between both sources of disagreement but within group disagreement is more tightly related to trading volume than cross group disagreement although both sources of disagreement are important our findings suggest that information differences are more important for trading than differences across market approaches

complete markets informed trading and equity option introductions this paper proposes and tests a new hypothesis concerning the price impact of option introductions on the underlying asset we argue that the leverage properties of options induce a higher level of informed trading in the aggregate market underlying plus derivative resulting in excess listing day price movements in the newly optioned equity using an alternative dataset our results suggest that this may be an explanation for the observed positive than negative excess listing day returns of us optioned stocks over the past thirty years

government failure and market failure on the inefficiency of environmental and energy policy in this article we describe some important themes in energy and environmental policy there are two main reasons for our interest in these policies first such policies will likely be important in the coming decades as issues related to climate change and energy security come to the fore second there are important lessons to be learned from a careful review of the actual performance of energy and environmental policies we undertake a selective survey of the literature to highlight what is known about the efficiency of particular kinds of policies laws and regulations in these areas this paper makes three key contributions the first is to synthesize a large literature on energy and environmental policy in a way that can be easily digested by both non experts and experts the second contribution is to suggest that if history is a guide then we should not expect many interventions in these policy areas to come close to maximizing net economic benefits the third is to suggest what might be needed for the development of more efficient energy and environmental policies copyright 2010 oxford university press

do prices transmit rationally expected information a simple model with asymmetric information in which inventory holders or traders submit demand curves to an auctioneer has a unique partially revealing equilibrium we wonder whether the agents can plausibly coordinate on this equilibrium through eductive reasoning relying on common knowledge the analysis stresses the role of two effects sensitivity and amplification whose product should be small enough the property is obtained whenever the equilibrium excess demand is steep enough i e when the search for information does not distort demand too much neither the influence of the number of informed agents nor that of noise trading are monotonic real time learning has strikingly different features jel d82 d84

policy experimentation political competition and heterogeneous beliefs abstract we consider a two period model in which an incumbent political party chooses the level of a current policy variable unilaterally but faces competition from a political opponent in the future both parties care about voters payoffs but they have different beliefs about how policy choices will map into future economic outcomes we show that when the incumbent party can endogenously influence whether learning occurs through its policy choices policy experimentation future political competition gives it a new incentive to distort its policies it manipulates them so as to reduce uncertainty and disagreement in the future thus avoiding facing competitive elections with an opponent very different from itself the model thus demonstrates that all incumbents can find it optimal to over experiment relative to a counterfactual in which they are sure to be in power in both periods we thus identify an incentive for strategic policy manipulation that does not depend on parties having conflicting objectives but rather stems from their differing beliefs about the consequences of their actions

automobile externalities and policies this paper discusses the nature and magnitude of externalities associated with automobile use including local and global pollution oil dependence traffic congestion and traffic accidents it then discusses current federal policies affecting these externalities including fuel taxes fuel economy and emissions standards and alternative fuel policies summarizing insofar as possible the welfare effects of those policies finally we discuss emerging pricing policies including congestion tolls and insurance reform and summarize the appropriate combination of policies to address automobile externalities

market efficiency and natural selection in a commodity futures market while the literature usually justifies informational efficiency in the context of rationality this article shows informational efficiency by applying the evolutionary idea of natural selection in a dynamic futures market speculators are assumed to merely act upon their predetermined trading types buyer or seller their predetermined fractions of wealth allocated for speculation and their inherent abilities to predict the spot price reflected in their distributions of prediction errors with respect to the spot price this article shows that the proportion of time that the futures price equals the spot price converges to one with probability 1 article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

effects of insider trading disclosures on speculative activity and future prices this paper explores a simple model of the effects of requiring a public disclosure of insider trader activity in future markets

the london congestion charge by the 1990s the average speed of trips across london was below that at the beginning of the twentieth century before the car was introduced and by the end of that decade public concern over levels of traffic congestion was high in early 2003 london imposed a congestion charge a daily charge for driving or parking a vehicle on public roads within central london between the hours of 7 00 a m and 6 30 p m on workdays traffic congestion has declined substantially and the program is largely popular this article describes the origins of the london congestion charge how it overcame practical and theoretical difficulties and what effects it has had the introduction of the london congestion charge is in important respects a triumph of economics it represents a high profile public and political recognition of congestion as a distorting externality and of road pricing as an appropriate policy response

information and strategic behavior abstract does encouraging trader participation enhance market competitiveness this paper shows that when trader preferences are interdependent trader market power does not necessarily decrease with greater participation and traders need not become price takers in large markets thus larger markets can be less liquid and associated with lower ex ante welfare in the linear normal model the necessary and sufficient condition on the information structure is provided under which price impact is monotone in market size a condition is given when the rational expectations equilibrium which is typically not fully revealing within the considered class of preference interdependencies is obtained in large markets

a note on the weak form efficiency of capital markets the application of simple technical trading rules to uk stock prices 1935 to 1994 abstract brock et al 1992 found technical trading rules to have predictive ability with regards to the dow jones index the current paper considers whether this result can be replicated on uk data the paper also considers whether investors could earn excess returns from technical analysis in a costly trading environment the paper concludes that although the technical trading rules examined do have predictive ability in terms of uk data their use would not allow investors to make excess returns in the presence of costly trading

partially revealing rational expectations equilibrium in a competitive economy abstract a class of pure exchange economies is considered in which some agents are informed of private information and others are uninformed existence of a partially revealing rational expectations equilibrium ree is proved without restricting attention to particular functional forms for utility functions and probability distributions without introducing noise into the model and without departing from the standard definition of ree the equilibrium is robust in the sense that if the primitives of the economy are slightly perturbed the economy continues to have a qualitatively similar ree with somewhat stronger assumptions placed on the economy the equilibrium is also the unique measurable ree

the cost of technical trading rules in the forex market a utility based evaluation we compute the opportunity cost for rational risk averse agents of using technical trading rules in the foreign exchange rate market we decompose this opportunity cost into two parts i a cost related to the misallocation of wealth which increases with the investor s level of risk aversion allocational cost and ii a cost related to the investor s erroneous belief regarding the sign of the expected excess return expectational cost we find that even for low levels of risk aversion the opportunity cost of using chartist rules tends to be prohibitively high

naive trading rules in financial markets and wiener kolmogorov prediction theory a study of technical analysis this article attempts a formal study of technical analysis which is a class of informal prediction rules often preferred to wiener kolmogorov prediction theory by participants of financial markets yet wiener kolmogorov prediction theory provides optimal linear forecasts this article investigates two issues that may explain this contradiction first the article attempts to devise formal algorithms to represent various forms of technical analysis in order to see if these rules are well defined second the article discusses under which conditions if any technical analysis might capture those properties of stock prices left unexploited by linear models of wiener kolmogorov theory copyright 1991 by university of chicago press