political cycles and economic performance in oecd countries empirical evidence from 1951 2006 this paper examines whether electoral motives and government ideology influence short term economic performance i employ data on annual gdp growth in 21 oecd countries over the 1951 2006 period and provide a battery of empirical tests in countries with two party systems gdp growth is boosted before elections and under leftwing governments in the first two years of a legislative period these findings indicate that political cycles are more prevalent in two party systems because voters can clearly punish or reward political parties for governmental performance my findings imply that we need more elaborate theories of how government ideology and electoral motives influence short term economic performance

la dolce vita hedonic estimates of quality of life in italian cities colombo e michelangeli a and stanca l la dolce vita hedonic estimates of quality of life in italian cities regional studies this paper investigates quality of life in italian cities using the hedonic approach it analyses micro level data for housing and labour markets to estimate compensating differentials for local amenities within four domains weather environment services and society large compensating differentials in housing markets are found whereas the effects on wages are relatively small quality of life varies substantially across space and is generally better in large and medium sized cities of the centre north services and social conditions are strongly related to overall quality of life it is also found that across cities quality of life is positively and significantly related to subjective well being

distinctively different a new approach to valuing architectural amenities we propose a method to estimate the capitalized value of the architectural design quality of a neighbourhood our economic design premium is identified by spatially differentiating property prices and design quality within neighbourhoods and comparing the differences across neighbourhoods we apply our method to 47 conservation area neighbourhoods in england in which we analyse around 7900 property transactions and interview more than 500 residents we find a capitalization effect of about 25 4 38 7k associated with a one step increase on a five step scale ranging from not at all distinctive to very distinctive our results suggest that this effect is at least partially driven by an architectural externality

mobility behavior of the elderly mobility patterns of the elderly provide a particularly interesting theoretical subcase of a more general migration model which interacts individual specific traits e g health and retirement status and location specific traits e g amenities rents and wages the spatially invariant incomes pensions dividends etc of the retired are shown to lead to migration toward areas where the wage and rent compensation for amenities necessary for spatial equilibrium occurs primarily in the labor market rather than in the land market empirical evidence appears to be consistent with theoretical expectations more investigation however is clearly desirable

how do budget deficits and economic growth affect reelection prospects evidence from a large panel of countries conventional wisdom is that good economic conditions and expansionary fiscal policy help incumbents get reelected but this has not been tested in a large cross section of countries we test these arguments in a sample of 74 countries over the period 1960 2003 we find no evidence that deficits help reelection in any group of countries developed and less developed new and old democracies countries with different government or electoral systems and countries with different levels of democracy in developed countries and in old democracies election year deficits actually reduce the probability that a leader is reelected with similar although smaller negative electoral effects of deficits in the earlier years of an incumbent s term in office higher growth rates of real gdp per capita raise the probability of reelection only in the less developed countries and in new democracies but voters are affected by growth over the leader s term in office rather than in the election year itself and apparently only by growth not attributed to global growth low inflation is rewarded by voters only in the developed countries the effects we find are not only statistically significant but also quite substantial quantitatively we also suggest how the absence of a positive electoral effect of deficits can be consistent with the political deficit cycle found in new democracies

import price elasticities reconsidering the evidence recent economic geography and trade empirical studies based on monopolistic competition suggest high levels of trade price elasticities between 3 and 1 1 however price elasticity estimations in trade equations using unit values as price proxies usually lead to lower values of around unity we show that those inconclusive results may be due to some misspecification in these equations as well as measurement errors in prices when suit able instrumental variables are used within a panel of industrialized countries we obtain high price elasticities the majority ranging from i to 13 the highest estimates correspond to industries producing homogeneous goods jel classification c2 c3 and f 1

macroeconomic policy in a two party system as a repeated game this paper considers the interaction of two parties with different objectives concerning inflation and unemployment and rational and forward looking wage setters if discretionary policies are followed an economic cycle related to the political cycle results in equilibrium this cycle is significantly different from the traditional political business cycle reputational mechanisms due to the repeated interaction of the two parties and the public or commitments to a common policy rule can improve upon the discretionary outcome by reducing or eliminating the magnitude of the economic fluctuations

geography industrial organization and agglomeration this paper makes two contributions to the empirical literature on agglomeration economies first the paper uses a unique and rich database in conjunction with mapping software to measure the geographic extent of agglomerative externalities previous papers have been forced to assume that agglomeration economies are club goods that operate at a metropolitan scale second the paper tests for the existence of organizational agglomeration economies of the kind studied qualitatively by saxenian 1994 this is a potentially important source of increasing returns that previous empirical work has not considered results indicate that localization economies attenuate rapidly and that industrial organization affects the benefits of agglomeration

election goals and the allocation of campaign resources this paper compares the equilibrium behavior and outcomes in a model of two party competition for legislative seats under two different assumptions about the parties goals 1 parties maximize the expected number of seats won and 2 parties maximize the probability of winning a majority of the seats the two goals may lead to qualitatively different behavior and studying the differences yields insights into the relationship between the goals and the role of assymetries between the parties

political budget cycles with informed voters evidence from italy i exploit a reform that required italian municipalities to disclose their balance sheetsbefore elections to study whether having more informed voters aects the political budgetcycle to start inve

politicians as experts electoral control and fiscal restraints we propose an argument for fiscal restraints that is based on the premise that the services of politicians are credence goods politicians are experts who specialize in observing the true state of the economy budget maximizing politicians are better informed than the electorate about the level of public spending necessary to manage public affairs voters who are able to observe the size of the budget but not the necessary level of spending affect the government s spending behavior via electoral control a fiscal restraint limits the maximum spending a government can choose we identify conditions under which such a fiscal restraint improves voter welfare and discuss the role of the political opposition as a second expert in situations in which the state of the economy requires a level of spending which exceeds the fiscal restraint

political business cycles 40 years after nordhaus the aim of this article is to survey the huge literature that has emerged in the last four decades following nordhaus s rev econ stud 42 2 169 190 1975 publication on political business cycles pbcs i first propose some developments in history of thought to examine the context in which this ground breaking contribution saw the light of the day i also present a simplified version of nordhaus s model to highlight his key results i detail some early critiques of this model and the fields of investigations to which they gave birth i then focus on the institutional context and examine its influence on pbcs the actual research agenda finally i derive some paths for future research

local government type and municipal bond ratings what s the relationship abstractthere is an extensive literature analysing the executive branch within local u s government jurisdictions this has largely revolved around the differences between elected mayors and appointed city managers much of the academic work has considered the potential efficiency gains that may be associated with either form of government and comparative analyses between the two however the empirical literature has been divided regarding the relative efficiency of either form this article attempts to add to that literature by considering how bond markets may perceive potential efficiencies that emerge from one executive type over the other by evaluating bond ratings for a sample of large municipal governments in the united states overall the results suggest that municipalities headed by a city manager are associated with increased bond ratings and thus lower borrowing costs which may lend support that this form of administration is on some margin relatively more efficient than others these re

earnings functions when wages and prices vary by location economists generally assume implicitly that the return to schooling is invariant across local labor markets we demonstrate that this outcome pertains if and only if preferences are homothetic a special case that seems unlikely our theory predicts that returns to education will instead be relatively low in expensive high amenity locations our analysis of u s data provides support for this contention returns to college are especially low in such cities as san francisco and seattle our findings call into question standard empirical exercises in labor economics that treat the returns to education as a single parameter

fiscal policy deficits and politics of subnational governments the case of the german laender the first part of the paper briefly describesinstitutional aspects of the german federal system andexamines the economic and fiscal performance of thegerman laender since 1970 taking into account theinstitutional settings especially the fact that thegerman laender cannot set tax rates individually wedevelop a highly stylized model of subnationalgovernments that do not have access to the tax rateinstrument and thus have to use expenditures as apolicy variable the model implies an expendituresmoothing policy of subnational governments andcomplements the famous tax smoothing model theempirical section examines whether governments ofvarious ideology show significant differences infiscal stabilization policy our results indicatethat regional differences in public debt accumulationand public expenditure policy in general is largelydetermined by interregional differences in economicperformance whereas we do not find any significantimpact on the ideological composition of the laendergovernments

the determinants of vote intentions in portugal this paper offers new insights on theinteractions between economics and politicsin portugal we use two unexplored datasets consisting of monthly polls on voteintentions for the main political partiesin portugal and responses to a consumersurvey containing a battery of questions oneconomic evaluations the analysis coversthe interval from 1986 to 2001 we findthat 1 right wing governments arepenalized for higher inflation while theleft wing ones are not 2 left winggovernments are more penalized forincreases in the unemployment rate 3 voters base their evaluations ofincumbents performances on perceptions ofpast and current economic conditions rather than on expected future economicoutcomes

quality of life firm productivity and the value of amenities across canadian cities we estimate quality of life and productivity differences across canada s metropolitan areas in a hedonic general equilibrium framework these are based on the estimated willingness to pay of heterogeneous households and firms to locate in various cities which differ in their wage levels housing costs and land values using 2006 canadian census data our metropolitan quality of life estimates are somewhat consistent with popular rankings yet find canadians care more about climate and culture quality of life is highest in victoria for anglophones montreal for francophones and vancouver for allophones and lowest in more remote cities toronto is canada s most productive city vancouver is the overall most valuable city qualite de vie productivite des entreprises et la valeur des avantages dans les diverses villes canadiennes on evalue les differences entre la qualite de vie et la productivite des entreprises entre les zones metropolitaines au canada a l aide d un cadre d analyse d equilibre general hedonique ces metriques sont basees sur l estimation de la volonte de payer de menages et d entreprises heterogenes pour se localiser dans diverses villes qui different tant pour ce qui est des niveaux de salaires des couts de l habitation et des prix des terrains a l aide des donnees du recensement canadien de 2006 on construit des evaluations de la qualite de vie des diverses zones metropolitaines qui s arriment convenablement aux ordonnancements en vogue mais on decouvre que les canadiens portent une attention particuliere au climat et a la culture la qualite de vie est la plus elevee a victoria pour les anglophones a montreal pour les francophones et a vancouver pour les allophones et la plus faible pour les villes eloignees des grands centres toronto est la ville la plus productive vancouver est generalement la plus appreciee

local political business cycles evidence from philippine municipalities abstract this paper establishes the existence of short term political business cycles in the philippines over the period 2003 2009 examining a balanced panel of 1143 municipalities shows that employment levels increase in the two pre electoral quarters and drop sharply in the two quarters following elections further results are consistent with the cycles being generated by incumbents attempts to increase their chances of re election cycles are stronger in sectors that incumbents are more able to influence and when they expect stronger electoral competition evidence suggests that these cycles are detrimental to development

what are cities worth land rents local productivity and the total value of amenities abstract this paper models how to use widely available data on wages and housing costs to infer land rents local productivity and the total value of local amenities in the presence of federal taxes and locally produced nontraded goods i apply the model to u s metropolitan areas with the aid of visually intuitive graphs the results improve measures of productivity and feature large differences in land rents wage and housing cost differences across metropolitan areas are accounted for more by productivity than quality of life differences regressions using individual amenities reveal that the most productive and valuable cities are typically coastal sunny mild educated and large

driving to opportunity local rents wages commuting costs and sub metropolitan quality of life we examine variation in local rents wage levels commuting costs household characteristics and amenities within metropolitan areas for 2071 areas covering the united states by density and central city status we demonstrate the sensibility of estimating wage levels by workplace not residence and recover decentralized rent gradients that fall with commuting costs we construct and map a willingness to pay index which indicates the quality of life typical households receive from local amenities when households are similar mobile and informed this index varies considerably within metros and is typically high in areas that are dense suburban sunny mild safe entertaining and have elevated school funding

agglomeration spillovers and wage and housing cost gradients across the urban hierarchy abstract the tyranny of distance in terms of its effect on median earnings and housing costs is examined for rural and urban u s counties first we develop a series of distance metrics for an area s remoteness from multiple tiers of the urban hierarchy second we consider geographical access of buyers and sellers through market potential measures typical of those used in empirical studies of the new economic geography we estimate penalties of about 5 to 9 for median earnings and 12 to 17 for housing costs for area remoteness from the combined tiers of the urban hierarchy differences in market potential also influence factor prices but these effects generally are smaller than those produced by urban hierarchy distances thus it appears that empirical tests of new economic geography models need to consider sources of agglomeration spillovers beyond aggregate market potential

compensating differentials in emerging labor and housing markets estimates of quality of life in russian cities abstract the purpose of this paper is to see if an equilibrium model of compensating differences for amenities can be applied to a major transition economy russia we analyze russian labor and housing markets using data from the russian longitudinal monitoring survey rlms augmented by city and regional specific characteristics from other sources our estimated wage and housing value equations suggest that workers are compensated for differences in climate environmental conditions ethnic conflicts crime rates and health conditions after controlling for worker characteristics occupation industry and economic conditions and various housing characteristics we find evidence that these compensating differentials exist even after controlling for the regional pay differences regional coefficients used by the russian government to compensate public sector workers for living in regions that are designated as less desirable quality of life as measured by a group of eleven amenities varies substantially the highest ranked cities tend to be in relatively warm areas and areas in the western european part of the country our quality of life index is positively correlated with net migration into a region suggesting workers are attracted to amenity rich locations overall we find that a model of compensating differentials with controls for disequilibrium yields useful information about compensation for location specific amenities and quality of life in this large transition economy

two round elections one round determinants evidence from the french municipal elections using a new database of french municipalities that covers 821 towns and two elections 2001 and 2008 we examine how the budget structure degree of electoral competition and the economic context affect the share of votes for the incumbent we take into account the institutional details of the two round structure of the electoral process created by french electoral rules dual ballot under plurality rules we show that in the first round of the electoral process spending on equipment including infrastructures can influence the voter and that electoral competition has a strong impact on the incumbent s score in the second round the incumbent s vote is affected more by national considerations and local budget variables have no effect we show that the dynamics between the first and the second rounds are intense the results suggest that the determinants of each round s outcome in a two round electoral process are different

electoral cycles in government employment evidence from us gubernatorial elections abstract incumbents may opportunistically design policies increasing employment before elections or postpone cuts until afterwards i investigate electoral cycles in public sector employment around us gubernatorial elections exploiting staggered gubernatorial election cycles across states i use both county fixed effects models and a geographic discontinuity design that compares neighboring counties at state borders with a difference in gubernatorial election cycles consistent with manipulation state and local government employment per capita are higher leading up to elections afterwards employment abruptly returns to normal political and spatial heterogeneities are investigated including by election competitiveness term limits incumbent party affiliation and ideological alignment between the incumbent and the state legislature or local citizens differences across types of government employment and private sector employment are also explored

european emission trading scheme and competitiveness a case study on the iron and steel industry abstract we quantify the impact of the european emission trading scheme ets on the two dimensions of competitiveness production and profitability for the iron and steel industry among those covered by the scheme this sector is one of the most exposed since it is both highly co 2 intensive and relatively open to international trade we also examine the robustness of these results to various assumptions marginal abatement cost curve trade and demand elasticities as well as pass through rates and updating of allocation rules of which the latter two are scarcely debated we conclude that for this sector competitiveness losses are small we prove this conclusion to be robust hence arguments against tightening the environmental stringency of the ets in phase ii are not justified on grounds of competitiveness loss our systematic sensitivity analysis allows us to identify the important assumptions for each output variable it turns out that pass through rates and updating rules are significant despite being often implicit and least debated in existing analyses

an application of a stated preference method to value urban amenities this is a case study analysis of how residents value the amenities of a small us city missoula montana a measure of a community s amenity values is needed in city planning so as to protect those

accountability and incentives of appointed and elected public officials political agency models suggest that elected public officials choose different policies than appointed officials do this paper is the first a to apply a clean empirical design to study whether t

demand substitution across us cities observable similarity and home price correlation abstract this paper studies demand substitution in the context of us cities demand substitution occurs when individuals on the margin between certain city pairs affect demand patterns in the aggregate causing certain cities to be better substitutes than others using a discrete model of city choice i derive two predictions for migration flows and test them empirically using city to city migration data from the us census i show that cities which are similar on a variety of observable measures have higher levels of gross migration flows in the steady state and higher net migration flows in response to labor demand shocks finally i propose pairwise correlation in metropolitan home prices as a price based measure of substitutability and show that it contains substantial predictive power for migration flows relative to observable similarity

clusters of entrepreneurship employment growth is strongly predicted by smaller average establishment size both across cities and across industries within cities but there is little consensus on why this relationship exists traditional economic explanations emphasize factors that reduce entry costs or raise entrepreneurial returns thereby increasing net returns and attracting entrepreneurs a second class of theories hypothesizes that some places are endowed with a greater supply of entrepreneurship evidence on sales per worker does not support the higher returns for entrepreneurship rationale our evidence suggests that entrepreneurship is higher when fixed costs are lower and when there are more entrepreneurial people

urban population and amenities the neoclassical model of location we develop a neoclassical general equilibrium model to explain cross metro variation in population and density we provide new methods to estimate traded and non traded productivities and elasticities of housing and land supply using density and land area data from wage and housing cost indices the model explains half of u s density and population variation and finds that quality of life determines location choices more than trade productivity productivity and factor substitution in housing matter most but are weak in nicer areas relaxing land use regulations would increase population in the west raising both quality of life and productivity experienced by residents

electoral cycles in active labor market policies we examine how electoral motives influence active labor market policies that promote short term job creation such policies reduce measures of unemployment using german state data for the period 1985 to 2004 we show that election motivated politicians pushed job promotion schemes before elections

equilibrium political budget cycles political business cycle theories generally rely on nominal rigidities and voter myopia this paper offers an equilibrium theory that preserves some basic insights from earlier models though with significant refinements the political budget cycle emphasized here is in fiscal policy rather than output and inflation it arises via a multidimensional signal process one can consider the welfare implications of proposals to mitigate the cycle and the effects of altering the electoral structure copyright 1990 by american economic association

political budget cycles the case of the western german lander this paper focuses on the issue of the electoral andideological cycles in state government budget for the elevenwestern german lander we verify this hypothesis over theperiod 1974 1994 for the following budgetary variables totalexpenditures surplus deficit administration health care education roads and social security benefits while overallour results seem to show that generally the party variabledoes not play a systematic role in spending decisions theyprovide some support to the opportunistic cycle theory showingthat the only relevant phenomenon is the effect of theupcoming election on the government spending inclinations

a model of the political economy of the united states we develop and test a model of joint determination of economic growth and national election results in the united states the formal model which combines developments in the rational choice analysis of the behavior of economic agents and voters leads to a system of equations in which the dependent variables are the growth rate and the vote shares in presidential and congressional elections our estimates support the theoretical claims that growth responds to unanticipated policy shifts and that voters use both on year and midterm elections to balance the two parties on the other hand we find no support for rational retrospective voting we do reconfirm in a fully simultaneous framework the naive retrospective voting literature s finding that the economy has a strong effect on presidential voting we find congressional elections unaffected by the economy except as transmitted by presidential coattails

the electoral dynamics of human development this paper analyses the impact of elections on the dynamics of human development in a panel of 82 countries over the period 1980 2013 the incidence of partisan and political support effects is also taken into account a gmm estimator is employed in the empirical analysis and the results point out to the presence of an electoral cycle in the growth rate of human development majority governments also influence it but no clear evidence is found regarding partisan effects the electoral cycles have proved to be stronger in non oecd countries in countries with less frequent elections with lower levels of income and human development in presidential and non plurality systems and in proportional representation regimes they have also become more intense in this millennium

how do politicians save buffer stock management of unemployment insurance finance abstract we fit an empirical structural model of forward looking government savings behavior to data from the u s state unemployment insurance ui programs 1976 2008 states increase benefits or lower taxes when unemployment trust fund balances are high consistent with a desired target level of savings this can be explained by the representative state program behaving like a carroll 1992 buffer stock consumer who trades off a desire to expend savings impatience against the fear of running out of funds risk aversion we calibrate the model to the data and find that statistics from model simulations match similar statistics produced from the data for reasonable levels of risk aversion and impatience

political opportunism and countercyclical fiscal policy in election year recessions political budget cycles pbcs have been well documented in the literature albeit not for all circumstances however no work has been done on the impact of economic growth on the magnitude of pbcs the theoretical model argues that a government has an incentive to increase fiscal manipulations when a recession is expected to hit and curtail re election chances this amounts to countercyclical policy for opportunistic rather than keynesian motives very robust evidence for this behaviour is found in portuguese municipalities in election years budget deficits go up even more and significantly so when a recession is expected

new estimates of quality of life in urban areas implicit markets capture compensation for intraurban and interregional differe nces in amenities and yield differences in housing prices and wages these pecuniary differences become preference based weights in a qual ity of life index hedonic equations are estimated using microdata fr om the 1980 census and assembled county based amenity data on climati c environmental and urban conditions ranking of 253 urban counties reveals substantial variation within as well as among the 185 urba n areas the quality of life differences across counties within one s msa is almost one half of the difference between the top and bottom ranked counties in the nation copyright 1988 by american economic association

wages rents and the quality of life this study focuses on the role of wages and rents in allocating workers to locations with various quantities of amenities the theory demonstrates that if the amenity is also productive then the sign of the wage gradient is unclear while the rent gradient is positive the theory is extended to include the housing market and nontraded goods these extensions require little modification of the conclusion the empirical work on wages shows that the regional wage differences can be explained largely by these local attributes with the use of site price data implicit prices are estimated and quality of life rankings for the cities are computed

us presidential elections and real gdp growth 1961 2004 in this paper i show that since 1960 an electoral cycle in us output growth can both be seen by the naked eye in the raw data and confirmed by a statistical analysis that allows for rational partisan effects as well as a wide range of control variables that is controlling for multiple lags of interest rate changes inflation money growth energy prices lagged output growth government spending or its growth and temporary partisan effects the timing of elections exerts a significant influence on quarterly real gdp growth

voting suffrage and the political budget cycle evidence from the london metropolitan boroughs 1902 1937 we study the opportunistic political budget cycle in the london metropolitan boroughs between 1902 and 1937 under two different suffrage regimes taxpayer suffrage 1902 1914 and universal suffrage 1921 1937 we argue and find supporting evidence that the political budget cycle operates differently under the two types of suffrage taxpayer suffrage where the right to vote and the obligation to pay local taxes are linked encourages demands for retrenchment and the political budget cycle manifests itself in election year tax cuts and savings on administration costs universal suffrage where all adult residents can vote irrespective of their taxpayer status creates demands for productive public services and the political budget cycle manifests itself in election year hikes in capital spending and a reduction in current spending

rationality and the political business cycle the case of local government the empirical results which have been reported support the hypotheses implied by the model of rational political behavior set out in section 2 in pre election periods local government development expenditures deviate significantly from their normal levels the extent of deviation is approximately 20

testing nonlinear forecastability in time series theory and evidence from the ems abstract this paper proposes a procedure based on nearest neighbour predictors for testing the existence of nonlinear forecastable dependencies in time series an empirical application to ems exchange rates illustrates the performance of the test

the electoral budget cycle this article begins with a review of the now substantial literature on the thesis that polticians manipulate governmental outputs so as to favor their chances of reelection it concludes that while this electoral cycle thesis was initially overstated by its proponents it retains more plausibility than recent critics have allowed this conclusion is then demonstrated through an analysis of expenditures by the ten provincial governments in canada between 1951 and 1984

determinants of the assignment of eu funds to portuguese municipalities the paper examines the determinants of the assignment of eu funds to portuguese municipalities using a large and unexplored dataset covering all 278 mainland municipalities over 15 years empirical results reveal that besides normative objectives political motivations also influence the distribution of funds by the national government across municipalities grants to municipalities increase during local election years and more funds are transferred to municipalities where legislative elections have been closely contested and where the ruling national party had been supported by voters

housing productivity and the social cost of land use restrictions abstract we use metro level variation in land and structural input prices to test and estimate a housing cost function with differences in local housing productivity both ols and iv estimates imply that stringent regulatory and geographic restrictions substantially increase housing prices relative to land and construction input costs the typical cost share of land is one third and substitution between inputs is inelastic a disaggregated analysis of regulations finds state level restrictions are costlier than local ones and provides a regulatory cost index rci housing productivity falls with city population typical land use restrictions impose costs that appear to exceed quality of life benefits reducing welfare on net

transparency political polarization and political budget cycles in oecd countries we investigate the effects of fiscal transparency and political polarization on the prevalence of electoral cycles in fiscal balance while some recent political economy literature on electoral cycles identifies such cycles mainly in weak and recent democracies in contrast we show conditioning on a new index of institutional fiscal transparency that electoral cycles in fiscal balance are a feature of many advanced industrialized economies using a sample of 19 oecd countries in the 1990s we identify a persistent pattern of electoral cycles in low er transparency countries while no such cycles can be observed in high er transparency countries furthermore we find in accordance with recent theory that electoral cycles are larger in politically more polarized countries

marshall s scale economies and jacobs externality in korea the role of age size and the legal form of organisation of establishments this paper revisits the concept of agglomeration economies by estimating the effects of localisation urbanisation and local competition on labour productivity using establish ment level data in korean manufacturing industries it is found that when an establish ment locates in a more localised specialised more urbanised diversified and more competitive area its workers become more productive due to external benefits from agglomeration issues of self selection bias and omitted variable bias are addressed by instrumenting the variables measuring localisation economies and controlling for the fixed effects of establishments location and industries year however the external effects from the spatial proximity of other establishments vary across the categories of industry type age size and legal form of organisation of establishments establishments in traditional heavy manufacturing industries receive more external benefits in a less diversified area while those in transport equipment manufacturing industries enjoy the largest benefits from localisation externalities exist for establishments aged between 2 and 7 years having at least 10 workers being corporate and having multiplants or not being headquarters establishments in relatively young industries rely more on diver sified environments while establishments in relatively old industries receive greater external benefits in the same industry cluster this result supports the product life cycle location theory of duranton and puga

quality of the business environment versus quality of life do firms and households like the same cities this paper develops a new measure of the quality of business environment that complements existing measures of the quality of life an annual panel of these measures is constructed and analyzed for 37 cities from 1977 to 1995 findings indicate that many cities attractive to firms are unattractive to households and vice versa in addition the size of a city s workforce increases with improvements in the quality of the business environment in contrast cities most likely to be dominated by retirees are those that are less attractive to firms additional specifications support theoretical arguments that retirees are drawn to cities in which local attributes are capitalized into lower wages rather than higher rents

breakthrough inventions and migrating clusters of innovation abstract we investigate the speed at which clusters of invention for a technology migrate spatially following breakthrough inventions we identify breakthrough inventions as the top 1 of us inventions for a technology during 1975 1984 in terms of subsequent citations patenting growth is significantly higher in cities and technologies where breakthrough inventions occur after 1984 relative to peer locations that do not experience breakthrough inventions this growth differential in turn depends on the mobility of the technology s labor force which we model through the extent that technologies depend upon immigrant scientists and engineers spatial adjustments are faster for technologies that depend heavily on immigrant inventors the results qualitatively confirm the mechanism of industry migration proposed in models like duranton duranton g 2007 urban evolutions the fast the slow and the still american economic review 97 197 221

is german domestic social policy politically controversial this paper investigates empirically the influence of government ideology on social policy using german data examining the funding and the benefits of social security and public healthcare policy my results suggest that policies implemented by governments dominated by left and rightwing parties were similar over the 1951 2007 period leftwing governments however spent more in the 1970s and rightwing governments did so after german reunification in 1990 since policy convergence encourages new parties to enter the political arena and party platforms on social policy matters are likely to undergo further changes in light of demographic change the observed pattern may thus be a transitory phenomenon

it s not me it s you the functioning of wall street during the 2008 economic downturn public officials have blamed wall street and its complex financial products for causing the 2008 economic downturn this article addresses three popular claims saying that complex financial markets are at fault and need more regulation it argues that even in the midst of a major economic downturn the much maligned mortgage backed securities collateralized debt obligations credit default swaps and unregistered hedge funds functioned almost exactly as designed when macroeconomic conditions worsened firms and investors that were paid to assume certain risks had to assume them those that opted for safer investment vehicles with more levels of private protection faced fewer problems although many investment vehicles lost money one must differentiate between problems that manifested themselves in markets and problems with the market itself even though government policies caused many of the problems public officials always have an incentive to point the finger at wall street and to argue for more regulations when their policies negatively affect markets

election results and opportunistic policies a new test of the rational political business cycle model the literature on the rational pbc suggests that politicians systematically manipulate economic and fiscal conditions before elections to increase their chances of reelection most tests of this theory look for evidence of pre election distortions in fiscal policy we propose a new test that explores the two way interaction between the magnitude of the opportunistic distortion and the margin of victory the test is implemented using a large panel of portuguese municipalities the results show that opportunism leads to a larger win margin for the incumbent and that incumbents behave more opportunistically when their win margin is small these results are consistent with the theoretical model

candidate quality the personal vote and the incumbency advantage in congress most political observers agree that incumbent legislators have a considerable advantage over nonincumbents in modern congressional elections yet there is still disagreement over the exact source of this advantage and the explanation for its growth over time to address this debate we utilize a unique set of historical elections data to test for the presence of an incumbency advantage in late nineteenth century house elections 1872 1900 we find a modest direct effect of incumbency and a substantial candidate quality effect moreover the cartel like control of ballot access by nineteenth century political parties created competition in races that the modern market like system simply does not sustain our results suggest that candidate quality is a fundamental piece of the puzzle in understanding the historical development of the incumbency advantage in american politics

sustaining the emerging carbon trading industry development a business ecosystem approach of carbon traders abstract this paper explores how carbon traders nurture the business ecosystem to sustain the emerging carbon trading industry development we collected primary data from a multinational carbon trader and its ecosystem partners in china through the construction of interviews and documentary the research findings show the carbon trading industry has experienced four stage evolution with different driving forces the carbon trader attracted and organized ecosystem partners to facilitate the cdm project owners to create carbon credits and trade them a systematic business ecosystems approach through the lens of context cooperation and configuration initiated by carbon traders has facilitated the industry development our findings also implicate to industrial practitioners and policymakers for sustaining the emerging industry development at both the current and the post kyoto protocol periods

seeing the forest through the trees a meta analysis of political budget cycles despite a vast number of articles the political budget cycle literature contains many conflicting theories and empirical results i conduct the first ever meta analysis of this literature in order to establish whether a link between elections and government budgets exists using data on 1198 estimates across 88 studies published between 2000 and 2015 i find evidence of a statistically significant yet substantively small increase in government expenditures and public debt around elections and reductions in revenues and fiscal balance using meta regression analysis combined with bayesian model averaging i find support for some of the context conditional theories in the literature although the findings of political budget cycles are robust to publication bias as well as some of the methodological and study specific choices authors are forced to make they also shed light on how certain decisions may affect a study s findings this has implications for current and future research on political budget cycles

an empirical investigation of the strategic use of debt the paper examines the accumulation of debt by swedish local governments i find that right wing governments accumulate more debt when facing a higher probability of defeat whereas the opposite occurs for left wing governments these effects are sizable a right wing government increases its level of debt by 15 percent whereas a left wing government decreases its debt by 11 percent if they are both certain of being replaced as compared to when they are certain of remaining in office the results are consistent with the predictions from a strategic debt model developed by persson and svensson

the yield curve and the macro economy across time and frequencies this paper assesses the relation between the yield curve and the main macroeconomic variables in the u s between early 1960s and 2009 across time and frequencies using wavelet analyses the shape of the yield curve is modelled by latent factors corresponding to its level slope and curvature estimated by maximum likelihood with the kalman filter the macroeconomic variables measure economic activity unemployment inflation and the fed funds rate the cross wavelet tools employed coherency and phase difference the set of variables and the length of the sample allow for a thorough appraisal of the timevariation and structural breaks in the direction intensity synchronization and periodicity of the relation between the yield curve and the macro economy our evidence establishes a number of new stylized facts on the yield curve macro relation and sheds light on several results found in the literature which could not have been achieved with analyses conducted strictly in the time domain as most of the literature or purely in the frequency domain

electoral manipulation via voter friendly spending theory and evidence abstract we present a model of the political budget cycle in which incumbents try to influence voters by changing the composition of government spending rather than overall spending or revenues rational voters may support an incumbent who targets them with spending before the election even though such spending may be due to opportunistic manipulation because it may also reflect sincere preference of the incumbent for types of spending voters favor classifying expenditures into those which are likely targeted to voters and those that are not we provide evidence supporting our model in data on local public finances for all colombian municipalities our findings indicate both a pre electoral increase in targeted expenditures combined with a contraction of other types of expenditure and a voter response to targeting

overlapping political budget cycles we advance the literature on political budget cycles by testing for cycles in expenditures for elections to the legislative and the executive branches using municipal data we identify cycles independently for the two branches evaluate the effects of overlaps and account for general year effects we find sizable effects on expenditures before legislative elections and even larger effects before joint elections to the legislature and the office of mayor in the case of coincident elections we show that it is important whether the incumbent chief executive seeks reelection to account for the potential endogeneity of that decision we apply an iv approach using age and pension eligibility rules

are elections debt brakes evidence from french municipalities we show that voters are fiscal conservatives although in the long run only while the average over the mandate level of debt has a negative impact on the probability of reelection pre election debt accumulation by incumbents increases their probability of reelection as the negative impact becomes larger as the debt level becomes higher it compensates for the short run effect elections thus appear as a disciplining device even if a weak one

are we witnessing a paradigm shift in the analysis of political competition this presidential address assesses the crisis of the downsian model of political competition in light of the mounting evidence on policy divergence and evaluates the possibility that the new theories of politicians quality and political selection provide an alternative theoretical conceptualization of political competition based on a critical review of the literature and on the author s works on content analysis of policy speeches income redistribution politicians quality and political legislation cycles this address concludes that multidimensional downsian models of political competition are adequate to explain policy divergence and points out the serious theoretical and empirical problems that models of political selection have to solve

opportunistic political cycles test in a young democracy setting this paper tests the theory of opportunistic cycles in a decade old democracy russia finds strong evidence of cycles and provides an explanation for why previous literature often found weaker evidence using regional monthly panel data we find that 1 the budget cycle is sizable and short lived public spending shifts toward direct monetary transfers to voters 2 the magnitude of the cycle decreases with democracy government transparency media freedom voter awareness and over time and 3 preelectoral manipulation increases incumbents chances for reelection the short length of the cycle explains underestimation of its size by previous literature because of low frequency data used in previous studies

political budget cycles in indonesia at the district level we find significant political budget cycles pbcs for indonesian districts only for direct not for indirect elections pbcs are significantly stronger if the incumbent runs for reelection they are well identified due to the exogenously different timing of elections

pork barrel politics and electoral returns at the local level does the targeted spending of public resources provide electoral benefits for incumbents despite the attention of scholars to that question the empirical results are mixed thus far the present paper supplies insights into the electoral benefits of discretionary funding on local elections i study the consequences of pork barrel politics in 7355 competitive mayoral elections in slovakia between 2006 and 2018 finding that more grants from the central government enhance the likelihood of mayors winning reelection the same advantage applies to mayors whose municipalities receive grants in local election years the effects of the number of grants obtained as well as the timing of their distribution are however moderated by municipal population more specifically a larger number of grants and resources obtained near the end of the mayoral term provides electoral benefits only to small town mayors but give no advantage to the mayors of larger urban areas

local amenities and life cycle migration do people move for jobs or fun abstract do households move for jobs or fun and where do they go when they move we address these questions using the 1970 2000 us census based on a panel of quality of life and business environment measures households prefer msas in warm coastal areas and non metropolitan locations while firms prefer large growing cities in addition cities with improving business environments acquire increasing shares of workers especially workers with high levels of human capital cities with improving consumer amenities become relatively more populated by retirees further analysis of individual level migration decisions indicates that regardless of marital status young highly educated households tend to move towards places with higher quality business environments this tendency is especially pronounced among highly educated couples who are more subject to job market co location problems in contrast regardless of education couples near retirement tend to move away from places with favorable business environments and towards places with highly valued consumer amenities these patterns help explain why areas unattractive to both households and business have struggled as with upstate new york while the sun belt and other regions are thriving