inequality and rules in the governance of water resources this paper considers two types of farmer with unequal land endowments who voluntarily contribute to a joint project for the maintenance of an irrigation network the collective output water is distributed according to some allocation rule and used by each farmer in combination with land to produce a final good the analysis shows that the initial degree of inequality affects the allocation rule that maximises the amount of water collectively provided specifically two forces act in opposite directions the first effort augmenting force pushes the distribution of water towards the agent with the higher return to water in the attempt to maximise the aggregate level of effort this is the prominent force when efforts are highly substitute if efforts display some degree of complementarity the effort mix alongside with aggregate effort becomes important a second effort mix force then emerges that favours more egalitarian or even progressive water allocation rules

spatial evolution of social norms in a common pool resource game we study the conditions for the emergence of cooperation in a spatial common pool resource cpr game we consider three types of agents cooperators defectors and enforcers the role of enforcers is to punish defectors for overharvesting the resource agents are located on a circle and they only observe the actions of their two nearest neighbors their payoffs are determined by both local and global interactions and they modify their actions by imitating the strategy in their neighborhood with the highest average payoffs on average using theoretical and numerical analysis we find a large diversity of equilibria to be the outcome of the game in particular we find conditions for the occurrence of equilibria in which the three strategies coexist we also derive the stability of these equilibria finally we show that introducing resource dynamics in the system favors the occurrence of cooperative equilibria

an evolutionary approach to norms iorms provide a powerful mechanism for regulating conflict in groups even when there are more than two people and no central authority this paper investigates the emergence and stability of behavioral norms in the context of a game played by people of limited rationality the dynamics of this new norms game are analyzed with a computer simulation based upon the evolutionary principle that strategies shown to be relatively effective will be used more in the future than less effective strategies the results show the conditions under which norms can evolve and prove stable one interesting possibility is the employment of metanorms the willingness to punish someone who did not enforce a norm many historical examples of domestic and international norms are used to illustrate the wide variety of mechanisms that can support norms including metanorms dominance internalization deterrence social proof membership in groups law and reputation

local common property exploitation with rewards this paper analyzes coalition formation in a livestock pasture system where livestock are privately owned and the pasture is a common property while standard models predict rather low prospects of cooperation this paper introduces a cost advantage of cooperation based on saami reindeer herding that may explain higher coalition participation in contrast to the existing fishery literature on coalition formation all players are assumed ex ante homogenous but may differ ex post due to the cost advantage a stable equilibrium with cooperation can be reached and a moderate exploitation level can be sustained compared to the tragedy of the commons outcome

functional unpleasantness the evolutionary logic of righteous resentment economics experiments and everyday experience cast doubt on the assumption that people are self interested in divide the dollar ultimatum games participants turn down offers that would make them objectively better off similarly drivers stuck in a traffic jam fume at cars cruising by on the shoulder many stuck drivers would punish the moving ones if they could even at some cost to themselves such strategies appear irrational because they make the punisher worse off than accepting the situation or offer we examine explanations for costly punishment and relax the presumption that punishers themselves prefer cooperation using evolutionary game theory to show how uncooperative punishers can support cooperation

a note on defensive expenditures harmonised law diverse results in the context of many environmental hazards there is scope for self defence by victims multiple equilibria arise in a model of bilateral precaution under a regime of strict but incompletely enforced environmental liability this means that the same system of environmental law instigated in two economies may lead to very different outcomes it impacts upon policy analysis in a variety of ways and provides a channel for cultural factors to matter we explore the positive and normative effects of subsidising self defence

multiple equilibria coordination and transitional growth abstract we study a small open economy with two sectors and two factors of production in one of the sectors external economies of scale are generated through the industry level capital input this leads to a divergence between private and social production possibility frontiers as well as to multiple equilibria the equilibrium selection problem that arises is solved by agents who follow a simple trial and error learning rule the growth path of the economy as agents learn lies below the production possibility frontier and may display cyclical transitional dynamics we also show that coordination problems which may prevent the economy from attaining the good equilibrium may be alleviated by the temporary use of policy instruments that shape the allocation of resources

bivariate garch estimation of the optimal commodity futures hedge six different commodities are examined using daily data over two futures contract periods cash and futures prices for all six commodities are found to be well described as martingales with near integrated garch innovations bivariate garch models of cash and futures prices are estimated for the same six commodities the optimal hedge ratio ohr is then calculated as a ratio of the conditional covariance between cash and futures to the conditional variance of futures the estimated ohrs reveal that the standard assumption of a time invariant ohr is inappropriate for each commodity the estimated ohr path appears non stationary which has important implications for hedging strategies

comparative studies of national incomes and prices income comparisons between persons or groups of persons in different countries are a special field of inquiry mainly because there are different currency units for the most part the other theoretical and empirical problems encountered in international income comparisons are similar to those of within nation comparisons between different persons at the same time or different groups of persons either interspatially or what is more common intertemporally e g constant price series of national income the qualifications mainly and for the most part are included because some writers hold that international comparisons are complicated or even invalidated by differences in consumption patterns sometimes differences in tastes are held to underlie these variations in consumption patterns variations that are often much larger between countries than those found between regions within a country or between different periods in the same country this essay focuses in its methodological aspects on these special problems the basic problems that are common to international and within nation comparisons are left to the standard literature on national accounts 2 we turn now to the currency unit problems and reserve the question of tastes for a later section

oil price shocks and real gdp growth empirical evidence for some oecd countries this study assesses empirically the effects of oil price shocks on the real economic activity of the main industrialized countries multivariate var analysis is carried out using both linear and non linear models the latter category includes three approaches employed in the literature namely the asymmetric scaled and net specifications evidence of a non linear impact of oil prices on real gdp is found in particular oil price increases are found to have an impact on gdp growth of a larger magnitude than that of oil price declines with the latter being statistically insignificant in most cases among oil importing countries oil price increases are found to have a negative impact on economic activity in all cases but japan moreover the effect of oil shocks on gdp growth differs between the two oil exporting countries in the sample with the uk being negatively affected by an oil price increase and norway benefiting from it

futures hedging effectiveness under the segmentation of bear bull energy markets abstract this article undertakes eight hedging models regression md garch bekk garch ccc garch ecm md ecm bekk ecm ccc and state space models to investigate hedging effectiveness of different price scenarios in energy futures markets different models have systematically evidenced that hedging effectiveness is higher in an increasing pattern termed bull markets than in a decreasing pattern termed bear markets for crude oil and gasoline futures that is findings show asymmetric hedging performance between upward and downward price trends consistently from the most popular hedging models in literature out of sample examination also suggests that the ranking of hedging effectiveness of different hedging models is not parallel in different price patterns across futures contracts implying that investors should adjust their hedging strategies accordingly

livestock as insurance and social status evidence from reindeer herding in norway the theory of livestock as a buffer stock predicts that agropastoralists facing substantial risks will typically use liquid assets such as livestock for self insurance to smooth consumption this paper examines this hypothesis for reindeer herders in norway where the herders in contrast to pastoralists in say sub saharan africa face well functioning credit markets using survey data including slaughter responses to a hypothetical meat price increase we test whether keeping reindeer as insurance against risks affects the slaughter response furthermore we examine whether status motives for keeping large herds affect the harvest response to a changing slaughter price as a background to the empirical analysis a stochastic bioeconomic model describing saami reindeer herding is formulated

group cost of living indexes when households have different consumption patterns whose cost of living should an actual price index represent this issue was first raised by j l nicholson and s j prais in the 1950 s both made essentially the same point official price indexes give each household s consumption pattern an implicit weight proportional to its total expenditures see nicholson p 540 prais calls such an index plutocratic and both nicholson and prais suggest an alternative democratic price index which gives all households equal weight a group cost of living index is an index that measures the impact of price changes on the welfare of a group or population of households to define such an index requires an explicit or implicit concept of the welfare of a group and hence requires interpersonal comparison and distributional judgments since group indexes such as the consumer price index play an important role in our perception of inflation and the formation of macro economic policy and are used to escalate wages and social security benefits they have significant effects on government decisions and economic welfare despite their intellectual interest and practical importance however until recently they have been virtually ignored by index number theorists the theory of the cost of living index cli provides a generally accepted framework for measuring the impact of price changes on the welfare of a particular household this paper extends the cli concept to groups and discusses which questions require group indexes and which do not i begin by introducing some notation and terminology in the context of household clis a household s cli is the ratio of the expenditures required to attain a particular base indifference curve in two price situations suppose there are n goods and s households and denote the preference ordering of the rth household by r r the base indifference curve can be identified by a goods collection xro which lies on it the expenditure function er p xr rr shows the minimum expenditure required to attain the base indifference curve at prices p the cli of the rth household ir pa pb xrorr is the ratio of the minimum expenditure required to attain the base indifference curve at prices pa comparison prices to that required at prices pb reference prices except in very special cases the value of the cli depends on the base indifference curve at which it is evaluated as successively higher base indifference curves are specified one would expect the prices of luxuries to become more important relative to the prices of necessities hence it is convenient to regard the cli as a function of the base indifference curve rather than as a single number corresponding to a particular base thus instead of offering guidance in choosing an appropriate base indifference curve theory suggests that there is no need to choose to construct the exact cli an investigator needs to know the household s preferences lacking this knowledge he rnust fall back on indexes which require less information and which are upper bounds on the exact index the laspeyres index jr papbxrb is the ratio of the cost of purchasing the reference period consumption basket at comparison prices to its cost

on the enforcement of territorial use rights regulations a game theoretic approach territorial use rights commonly known as turfs in the literature consists in the allocation of fishing rights to individuals and or groups to fish in certain geographical locations a requisite for these communities to be granted fishing rights is the formulation of a management and exploitation plan mep while thus far the literature on turfs has been centred on the biological and technical aspects of it to our knowledge there is no work squarely dealing with the issue of enforcement of the mep that the community once granted the fishing use rights have to comply with we formally explore this issue from an economic perspective by formulating a static game of norm compliance in a regime of common property resource exploitation the key characteristic of this game is a monitoring and sanctioning mechanism where fishermen monitor and sanction one another we found that in the absence of any endogenous regulation from the part of the fishing community turfs can not avoid the economic overexploitation of the fishery we discuss the importance of economic incentives and disincentives in the formulation of endogenous regulations aimed at ensuring compliance of the mep our results on the

crack spread hedging accounting for time varying volatility spillovers in the energy futures markets crude oil heating oil and unleaded gasoline futures contracts are simultaneously analysed for their effectiveness in reducing price volatility for an energy trader a conceptual model is developed for a trader hedging the crack spread various hedge ratio estimation techniques are compared to a multivariate garch model that directly incorporates the time to maturity effect often found in futures markets modelling of the time variation in hedge ratios via the multivariate garch methodology and thus taking into account volatility spillovers between markets is shown to result in significant reductions in uncertainty even while accounting for trading costs copyright 2002 john wiley sons ltd

the social cost of living index abstract household cost of living indexes reflect household preferences analogous indexes for groups of households require a corresponding concept of group preferences in this paper i investigate the social cost of living index a group index based on the bergson samuelson social welfare function i first define the index and examine its properties under the assumption that the investigator constructing it expresses his distributional judgments in an explicit bergson samuelson social welfare function i then examine the maximizing society and the independent society two cases in which the index can be constructed from the information contained in the market demand functions in these two cases a laspeyres index i e the fixed weight index based on the reference consumption pattern is an upper bound on the exact social cost of living index in general however the assumptions required to place bounds on the social cost of living index are much more likely to be satisfied than those required to place analogous bounds on a household s cost of living index

oil and the macroeconomy since world war ii all but one of the u s recessions since world war ii have been preceded typically with a lag of around three fourths of a year by a dramatic increase in the price of crude petroleum this does not mean that oil shocks caused these recessions evidence is presented however that even over the period 1948 72 this correlation is statistically significant and nonspurious supporting the proposition that oil shocks were a contributing factor in at least some of the u s recessions prior to 1972 by extension energy price increases may account for much of post opec macroeconomic performance

what impact does the choice of formula have on international comparisons in this paper an empirical comparison of a number of alternative multilateral index number formulae is undertaken the magnitude of the effect of choosing one formula over another is ascertained using an appropriate cross sectional data set constructed under the auspices of the eurostat oecd purchasing power parity programme to this end a new indicator is proposed that facilitates the measurement of the difference between two sets of bloc consumption shares each computed using a different multilateral comparison method jel classification c31 c43 c81 e31 f31 o57 quel impact est ce que le choix des formules a sur les comparaisons internationales ce memoire propose une comparaison empirique d un certain nombre de formules de nombres indices multilateraux on tente de jauger la magnitude de l impact du choix d une formule plutot qu une autre en utilisant une base de donnees transversales appropriee construite sous l egide du programme de parite du pouvoir d achat eurostat ocde on propose un nouvel indicateur qui facilite la mesure de la difference entre deux ensembles de patterns de consommation chacun calculea l aide d une methode de comparaison multilaterale differente

crude oil and the macroeconomy tests of some popular notions a note perhaps no other economic events in the post world war ii era have generated as much attention as the series of crude oil price shocks that have jolted the world economy since the opec boycott of 1973 a tremendous amount of space in the popular and professional literature has been devoted to analyzing the impacts of these shocks on the developed economies and the adjustments these shocks have induced one residual of this literature has been a general impression that since 1973 the functional relationship between crude oil prices and the developed macroeconomies has been dramatically and fundamentally altered yet to our knowledge no one has formally tested this impression recent evidence of hamilton 1983 suggests that crude oil prices had a strong impact on the u s business cycle well before 1973 further while textbook treatments of oil price shocks tend to highlight cost push inflationary effects the research of berndt and wood 1975 1979 and wilcox 1983 indicates the net complementarity between energy and capital in the u s economy is quite strong both before and after 1973 thus oil price shocks may have stronger real effects than generally believed in this paper we formally test three popular notions associated with the so called

a note on imitation based competition in common pool resources the tragedy of the commons refers to the dissipation of common ressources when several appropriators have access to it the nash equilibrium in common pool resource games describes such an overexploitation phenomena however some empirical facts and experimental results suggest that the degradation may exceed the nash equilibrium prediction rapid exhaustion of resources can then be explained by learning processes based on imitation behavior indeed when the number of players is limited the evolutionary outcome implies a higher level of dissipation than the nash equilibrium

a dynamic approach to voluntary environmental contributions in tourism abstract in an evolutionary game theoretical model of tourism firms that use an endogenous natural common pool resource cpr we show that stable equilibria with voluntary environmental initiatives may coexist with other equilibria where voluntary abatement is absent the basins of attraction of the equilibria are identified and a bifurcation analysis is carried out producing two results with policy implications first there is a highly non linear relationship between the cost of abatement required to be green and the share of green firms second increases in the number of the cpr s users will ultimately dissipate the incentives to make abatement beyond regulation

volatility regimes asymmetric basis effects and forecasting performance an empirical investigation of the wti crude oil futures market abstract this study employs a flexible regime switching egarch model with student t distributed error terms to investigate whether volatility regimes and basis affect the behavior of crude oil futures returns including the conditional mean variance skewness kurtosis as well as the extent of heavy tailedness the study also examines whether volatility regimes and asymmetric basis effects can improve the forecasting accuracy the main merit of the empirical model is that the basis effect is allowed to be asymmetric and to vary across volatility regimes empirical results suggest that the conditional mean and variance respond to the basis asymmetrically and nonlinearly and that the responses of transition probabilities to the basis are symmetric furthermore the conditional higher moments are sensitive to the absolute value of basis and the heavy tailed characteristic can be greatly alleviated by taking into account the asymmetric basis effects and regime switches finally the regime switches and asymmetric basis effects play decisive roles in forecasting return volatility and tail distribution

european natural gas seasonal effects on futures hedging abstract this paper is the first to discuss the design of futures hedging strategies in european natural gas markets nbp ttf and zeebrugge a common feature of energy prices is that conditional mean and volatility are driven by seasonal trends due to weather demand and storage level seasonalities this paper follows and extends the ederington and salas 2008 framework and considers seasonalities in mean and volatility when minimum variance hedge ratios are computed our results show that hedging effectiveness is much higher when the seasonal pattern in spot price changes is approximated with lagged values of the basis futures price minus spot price this fact remains true for short a week and long one three and six months hedging periods furthermore volatility of weekly price changes also has a seasonal pattern and is higher in winter than in summer a simple volatility seasonal model that is based on sinusoidal functions on the basis improves the risk reduction obtained by strategies in which hedging ratios are estimated with linear regressions seasonal hedging strategies linear regression based strategies or even a naive position perform better than more sophisticated statistical methods

a restricted domain multilateral test approach to the theory of international comparisons this article develops a novel multilateral test approach to the problem of international comparisons many of the associated tests are justified as reasonable using the fact that they are direct analogues to properties of the cost of living index further support is bestowed upon the new approach by showing that it is equivalent to an extended version of diewert s 1986 multilateral test approach finally a number of alternative multilateral comparison formulas are evaluated and the relative superiority of two of them is established

evolution of social norms with heterogeneous preferences a general model and an application to the academic review process abstract the article presents a model of social norm evolution that suggests how the increase in optimal and actual first response times frt of economics journals can be related when the optimal frt and the norm about how much time refereeing should take increase it seems that the existence of a norm increases the average refereeing time the model suggests the surprising result that this is not necessarily true i also discuss applications of the model in other contexts differences in the optimal frt between disciplines the effects of the frt on the tenure process and strategic behavior of referees

energy contagion analysis a new perspective with application to a small petroleum economy abstract we put forward the novel concept of energy contagion i e a deepening of energy finance linkages under crisis conditions in energy markets further we show how to construct tests for energy contagion through correlation co skewness and co volatility channels the samples of our contagion measures are defined in terms of calm and crisis periods in the international crude oil market in particular we compare how these various co moments in the energy finance nexus change during 1 oil booms and slumps using semi parametric rule based algorithms 2 tranquil and turbulent oil price volatility episodes using a non hierarchical k means clustering algorithm energy contagion analysis is essential for financial stability analysis in economies where prosperity is linked to the prices of hard commodities our applications are performed on the oil exchange rate and oil stock market relationships of the small petroleum economy of trinidad and tobago the main results show a negative oil real effective exchange rate dependency a weak oil stock returns association and the existence of several energy contagion channels in both financial relationships which are sensitive to the contemporary global financial crash

dissecting the tragedy a spatial model of behavior in the commons abstract much of the discussion of the tragedy of the commons focuses on aggregate impacts often in data poor developing country settings few non experimental empirical studies shed light on contextual circumstances driving the extent of rent dissipation and overexploitation we utilize a high resolution data set to estimate a behavioral model of fishermen s spatial choices a unique policy setting allows us to measure the degree to which individual fishermen s choices appear aimed at mitigating the tragedy of the commons in a small numbers setting we find evidence of partial mitigation in excess of what we would expect under pure self interest but short of what would occur under group maximizing behavior we also examine how contextual factors in the fishery shape the degree of cooperation within the fishing season and find evidence that competition for the common pool resource distorts fishermen s implicit cost of distance creating a form of common property inertia

common pool resource appropriation under costly cooperation abstract in addition to the usual fixed costs we introduce variable costs in a community s effort to cooperate in extracting from a common pool resource using a standard supervision mechanism these variable costs are shown to be an increasing function of individual members incentives to default the model explains why we frequently observe communities that all cooperate and have relatively similar resource endowments and yet achieve very different levels of extraction

linking common property resource management to human capital outcomes in regions where common pool resources provide significant support to their surrounding communities any climate change related shock could produce multiple livelihood repercussions in this paper a model explores how the health of common pool resources could impact upon human capital outcomes for communities that struggle to find alternate livelihood options when traditional means such as agriculture become unsustainable the management of common pool resources is modeled as a strategic interaction process between two heterogeneous communities that are directly or indirectly dependent upon it an unconstrained harvesting of common resources such as forestry not only depletes its stocks but it also indirectly affects crop output through soil degradation a number of situations are constructed where communities are able to successfully finance human capital accumulation through proper management of their common pool resources however results also warn that communities that are faced with limited opportunities towards accumulating human capital must plan ahead to prevent the depletion of their common resources below critical levels when non linear feedbacks to soil degradation emanate from low levels of common pool stocks human capital outcomes as well as future livelihoods of such communities are threatened

coping with asymmetries in the commons self governing irrigation systems can work many analysts presume that the appropriators of a common pool resource are trapped in a hobbesian state of nature and cannot themselves create rules to counteract the perverse incentives they face in managing the resource the logical consequence of this view is to recommend that an external authority the government take over the commons but considerable empirical evidence from field and experimental settings holds that appropriators frequently do constitute and enforce their own rules and that these rules work our research agenda is to develop a coherent understanding of the set of conditions that enhance or detract from self organizing capabilities when individuals differ substantially from one another for the sake of concreteness this paper focuses on the asymmetry present in most irrigation systems between those who are physically near the source of water the head enders and those who are physically distant from it the tail enders this paper first explores the interaction between head end and tail end farmers particularly their decisions about whether to devote resources to the upkeep of the irrigation system and how bargaining between the parties can benefit all sides finally we examine empirical evidence from a study of irrigation institutions in nepal and discuss the broader practical significance of our findings

knowledge sharing and the dynamics of social capital abstract mutual aid often entails the sharing of knowledge we investigate how in turn knowledge sharing affects the long run dynamics of mutual aid in our economy agents with specific knowledge are held up by their principals inside communities agents aid each other by sharing their specific knowledge this process generates a new type of knowledge which exacerbates the specificity of the existing types and induces more agents to engage in mutual aid however since the knowledge generated is shared it progressively renders agents inside communities more flexible and thus less dependent on mutual aid we characterize conditions under which in the long run mutual aid spreads or is abandoned

evolutionary stability of pure strategy equilibria in finite games abstract sufficient conditions for pure strategy nash equilibria of finite games to be lyapunov stable under a large class of evolutionary dynamics the regular monotonic selection dynamics are discussed in particular it is shown that in almost all finite extensive form games all the pure strategy equilibria are stable in such games all mixed strategy equilibria close to pure strategy equilibria are also stable journal of economic literature classification numbers c70 c72

a dynamic approach to forest regimes in developing economies abstract in the developing economies optimal forest regimes should incorporate the socio economic characteristics of the user groups and since socio economic factors will change with time optimal forest regimes will also follow a dynamic path the two most important socio economic factors are the heterogeneity of the user group with respect to forest management and the direct dependence of the user group on forest normally the heterogeneity will increase and dependence will decrease with economic growth of user group an optimal control model is used to integrate the dynamics of natural system such as joint product of forests and its growth function and the dynamics of the two socio economic factors heterogeneity and dependence the model demonstrates that the dynamics of optimal forest regimes will depend upon the change in natural factors socio economic factors and on the interactions between natural and socio economic factors hence optimal forest management strategies would require a continuous refinement in forest management regimes instead of static state regimes as local communities in developing economies pass through different phases of economic growth

markov switching garch models for bayesian hedging on energy futures markets abstract effective hedging strategies on oil spot and future markets are relevant in reducing price volatility for investors energy traders and companies operating in the oil markets a new bayesian multi chain markov switching garch model for dynamic hedging in energy futures markets is developed it builds on the construction of a system of simultaneous equations for the return dynamics on the hedged portfolio and the futures the implication of our model for portfolios allocation and energy trading are manyfold first our formulation allows for an easy identification of the different states of the discrete processes as volatility regimes secondly the use of regime switching models with multiple chains allows for an effective way to reduce risk furthermore correlated chains are more flexible than single chain models since they account for co movement in the volatility regimes of different markets thus they should be preferred in turbulent periods e g financial crisis finally the combination of the expected utility framework with the regime switching structure allows us to define a robust minimum variance hedging strategy changes in the optimal hedging strategies before and after the financial crisis are evidenced when the proposed robust hedging strategy is applied to crude oil spot and futures markets it is therefore recommended that many and different models should be used in place of a single one in energy risk hedging since they could perform differently in various phases of the market

community enforcement of fisheries effort restrictions abstract this paper models the use of community sanctions to restrict effort in a simple gordon schaefer style model of the fishery with heterogeneous fishing costs the withdrawal of cooperation in other areas of life is used to both restrict effort and to sanction those who continue to cooperate with those who have not restricted effort coalition proof nash equilibria are generated by a combination of sanctions discouraging the defection of small groups and stock reductions discouraging noncooperation by large groups both entry restrictions and individual quotas can be supported by community sanctions under some parameter combinations however there are cases where each can generate lower total rents than would be available under open access relatively low cost fishers are more likely to support entry restrictions and ignore community attempts to restrict individual effort while high cost fishers are more likely to support quotas

pure martingale and joint normality tests for energy futures contracts abstract in this study we empirically analyze to see if the pure martingale hypothesis holds for three energy related commodities crude oil heating oil and natural gas we also test this hypothesis for five different hedging horizons 1 day 1 week 4 week 8 week and 12 week our empirical results show that the pure martingale hypothesis holds for all three commodities and all five horizons this implies that the expected return on futures contract can be ignored in determining the optimal hedge ratio we also test to see if the joint normality between futures and spot returns holds for the same three commodities and five hedging horizons we reject the joint normality hypothesis for all three commodities and five hedging horizons this implies that hedgers with different utility function have different optimal hedge ratios thus in general one needs to take into account of hedger s utility function when deriving optimal hedge ratio our results are robust to pre and post financial crisis as well as some other specifications considered in the paper

oil and the macroeconomy since the 1970s economists have long been intrigued by empirical evidence that suggests that oil price shocks may be closely related to macroeconomic performance this interest dates back to the 1970s the 1970s were a period of growing dependence on imported oil unprecedented disruptions in the global oil market and poor macroeconomic performance in the united states thus it was natural to suspect a causal relationship from oil prices to u s macroeconomic aggregates since then a large body of work has accumulated that purports to establish this link on theoretical grounds and to provide empirical evidence in its support we do not attempt a comprehensive survey of this literature but rather provide an idiosyncratic synthesis of what we view as the key issues in this debate and the insights gained over the last 30 years the timing seems right for such an account although the experience of the 1970s continues to play an important role in discussions of the link between oil and the macroeconomy there have been a number of new oil price shocks since the 1970s notably the 1986 collapse of oil prices and the 2000 boom in oil prices as well as the oil price increases associated with the 1990 1991 gulf war and the 2003 iraq war given this richer case history we are arguably in a better position than two decades ago to distinguish the idiosyncratic features of each oil crisis from the systematic effects increases in oil prices have been held responsible for recessions periods of excessive inflation reduced productivity and lower economic growth in this paper we review the arguments supporting such views first we highlight some of the conceptual difficulties in assigning a central role to oil price shocks in explaining

this is what happened to the oil price macroeconomy relationship abstract many of the quarterly oil price increases observed since 1985 are corrections to even bigger oil price decreases the previous quarter when one looks at the net increase in oil prices over the year recent data are consistent with the historical correlation between oil shocks and recessions

evolutionary stability and media of exchange abstract the kiyotaki and wright model 1989 of money as a medium of exchange is analyzed within an evolutionary framework it is shown that fundamental speculative and polymorphic states can all be stable and that there may exist a multiplicity of stable states stringent assumptions regarding information and rationality are therefore unnecessary in order to explain the use of money as a medium of exchange even when the existence of a stable medium requires some individuals to trade their production good for one with a higher storage cost or when otherwise identical individuals must adopt different exchange strategies

hourly volatility spillovers between international equity markets abstract this paper examines the timing of mean and volatility spillovers between new york and london equity markets using an arch model it is found that the evidence of volatility spillovers between these markets is minimal and have a duration which lasts only an hour or so the most significant effects surround the movement of share prices around the new york opening but these results are not strong several new arch models are estimated including an asymmetric or leverage model and a non linear model which allows big shocks to have a different impact from small shocks

collective action for local commons management in rural yunnan china empirical evidence and hypotheses using evolutionary game theory this paper presents hypotheses regarding collective actions for irrigation management with the help of evolutionary game theory data for the analysis were collected by the author from the irrigation system of rural yunnan china an econometric analysis reveals that collective action will be forthcoming in rural communities where few nonfarm job opportunities are provided the degree of income disparity is quite small and resource restrictions are moderately problematic the finding that communities without local government intervention outperform those with intervention supports the proverbial view that external agencies should delegate significant parts of the control rights of common pool resources to immediate stakeholders

on the sustainability of common property resources abstract we provide a model where a common property resource is managed by two types of agents cooperators and non cooperators who adjust their extraction strategies in response to persistent differential payoffs in our model the social approval of cooperators works as a reward mechanism which as we show favors both the pervasiveness of cooperative behavior and the sustainable management of natural resources specifically we show that in the presence of such a reward mechanism a stable equilibrium can be reached with both strategies being practiced simultaneously and a decentralized and sustainable management of common property resources is possible

correlations and volatility spillovers between oil prices and the stock prices of clean energy and technology companies abstract in this paper multivariate garch models are used to model conditional correlations and to analyze the volatility spillovers between oil prices and the stock prices of clean energy companies and technology companies four different multivariate garch models bekk diagonal constant conditional correlation and dynamic conditional correlation are compared and contrasted the dynamic conditional correlation model is found to fit the data the best and generates results showing that the stock prices of clean energy companies correlate more highly with technology stock prices than with oil prices on average a 1 long position in clean energy companies can be hedged for 20 cents with a short position in the crude oil futures market

contagious cooperation temptation and ecosystem collapse real world observations suggest that social norms o f cooperation can be effective in overcoming social dilemmas such as the joint management of a c ommon pool resource but also that they can be subject to slow erosion and sudden collapse we show that these patterns of erosion and 15 collapse emerge endogenously in a model of a closed community harvesting a renewable natural resource in which individual agents face the tempta tion to overexploit the resource while a cooperative harvesting norm spreads through the community via interpersonal relations we analyze under what circumstances small changes in key parameters including the size of the community and the rate of technological progress trigger catastrophic transitions from 20 relatively high levels of cooperation to widespread norm violation causing the social ecological system to collapse

on the uniqueness of equilibrium in cournot oligopoly and other games abstract in an average surplus sharing game such as a cournot oligopoly a group of agents share a production process each contributes an amount of input to the process and output is divided in proportion to the amount of input contributed uniqueness of the equilibrium is needed for any type of comparative static analysis however general uniqueness results for concave games have restrictive assumptions on preferences and technology specifically the conditions needed for uniqueness become more difficult to meet as the number of players increases a new theorem for uniqueness with easily interpretable conditions is given which is independent of the number of players journal of economic literature classification numbers c70 c72 d43

effects on poverty and equity of the decline in collective tank irrigation management in tamil nadu india this paper investigates the factors influencing the decline in collective management of local commons and the impact of this decline on agricultural production and household consumption the analysis is based on a village and household data set collected in 1999 in tamil nadu india where tank irrigation systems are managed collectively for rice cultivation by informal water users organizations our statistical analyses find that one major reason for the decline in collective tank irrigation management is the dissemination of private well irrigation systems once the decline has occurred our analyses predict that the gap in rice yields between farmers who have access to private wells and those who must rely solely on tanks will widen with only the latter group suffering lower yields our analyses also find that the same pattern holds for levels of income and consumption because the affected farmers cannot sufficiently compensate for the loss of their rice income by diversifying their income sources to agricultural labor or non agricultural work in this way the decline in collective management results in greater inequality and poverty

the evolution of social norms in common property resource use the problem of extracting commonly owned renewable resources is examined within an evolutionary game theoretic framework it is shown that cooperative behavior guided by norms of restraint and punishment may be stable in a well defined sense against invasion by narrowly self interested behavior the resource stock dynamics are integrated with the evolutionary game dynamics effects of changes in prices technology and social cohesion on extraction behavior and the long run stock are analyzed when threshold values of the parameters are crossed social norms can break down leading generally to the lowering of the long run stock and possibly to its extinction copyright 1996 by american economic association

hedging emerging market stock prices with oil gold vix and bonds a comparison between dcc adcc and go garch while much research uses multivariate garch to model volatility dynamics and risk measures one particular type of multivariate garch model go garch has been underutilized this paper uses dcc adcc and go garch to model volatilities and conditional correlations between emerging market stock prices oil prices vix gold prices and bond prices a rolling window analysis is used to construct out of sample one step ahead forecasts of dynamic conditional correlations and optimal hedge ratios in most of the situations we study oil is the best asset to hedge emerging market stock prices hedge ratios from the adcc model are preferred most effective for hedging emerging market stock prices with oil vix or bonds hedge ratios estimated from the go garch are most effective for hedging emerging market stock prices with gold in some instances these results are reasonably robust to choice of model refits forecast length and distributional assumptions

harvesting dynamics in protected and unprotected areas we propose a dynamic model for studying the time evolution of fish stocks in an environment divided into two adjacent zones with different fishing policies we analyze two particular harvesting methods constant fishing effort and profit maximization in this case some agents engage in competition based on maximization of individual profit whereas others cooperate the asymptotic behavior of the system pinpoints that even if the presence of a reserve area leads to higher levels of sustainability in exploiting fish stocks attention should be paid in properly regulating the harvesting activity in order to avoid severe depletion of the resource

the minimum cvar strategy with semi parametric estimation in carbon market hedging problems abstract effective hedging strategies are important in reducing price volatility risk for business investors and companies participating into carbon markets in this paper we investigate the risk triggered by price fluctuation of european union allowance eua a semi parametric approach with cornish fisher expansion which approximates the quantile using the higher moments of the distribution is provided to estimate hedging ratios using cvar as risk objective function the approach can successfully capture the features of higher moments with the heavy tailed and higher kurtosis distribution of the eua returns which tends to be neglected the hedging performances of minimum cvar model we proposed and the conventional minimum variance model are evaluated and compared our empirical results show that minimum cvar hedging strategy generally outperforms the other in sample using all the effectiveness criteria while it is not consistent out of sample the proposed semi parametric minimum cvar strategy with cornish fisher expansion is advisable in carbon market hedging problems

the hedging performance of electricity futures on the nordic power exchange the nordic power exchange nord pool the first multinational exchange for electricity trading has existed since january 1996 spot and futures contracts are traded on this exchange and its typical characteristics are very high volatilities as well as non normally distributed returns this article looks at electricity futures and how they can be used for short term hedging of positions taken in the spot market it studies the minimum variance hedge ratio and how it can be estimated in different ways the traditional naive hedge and the ols hedge are compared out of sample to more elaborate moving average and garch hedges and the empirical results indicate some gains from hedging with futures despite the lack of straight forward arbitrage possibilities in the electricity market furthermore we find a slightly better performance of the simple ols hedge compared to the conditional hedges

profit fluctuations signal eroding resilience of natural resources abstract a common pattern of environmental crises is a vicious cycle between environmental degradation and socio economic disturbances here we show that while such feedbacks may give rise to critical transitions in social ecological systems at the same time they can offer novel opportunities for anticipating them we model a community that has joint access to the harvest grounds of a resource that is prone to collapse individuals are tempted to overexploit the resource while a cooperative harvesting norm spreads through the community via interpersonal relations both social and ecological collapses can be induced by environmental or socio economic driving forces regardless of the type and cause of collapse we find that upcoming transitions may be detected using simple socio economic response variables such as individual profits our findings suggest that such alternative sources of information can be used to detect upcoming critical transitions in social ecological systems however we also find that robust detection of critical transitions may be confounded by recovery attempts undertaken by resource users in the vicinity of an upcoming collapse which may be falsely interpreted as a stabilization of the social ecological system

forecasting energy market volatility using garch models can multivariate models beat univariate models abstract in this paper we forecast energy market volatility using both univariate and multivariate garch class models first we forecast volatilities of individual assets and find that multivariate models display better performance than univariate models second we forecast crack spread volatility and contrast the performance of multivariate models for two underlyings with the alternative of univariate ones for crack spreads directly our evidence shows that univariate models allowing for asymmetric effects display the greatest accuracy we also discuss the hedging strategy based on multivariate models and its implications for market participants

the dynamic efficiency costs of common pool resource exploitation we conduct the first empirical investigation of common pool resource users dynamic and strategic behavior at the micro level using real world data fishermen s strategies in a fully dynamic game account for latent resource dynamics and other players actions revealing the profit structure of the fishery we compare the fishermen s actual and socially optimal exploitation paths under a time specific vessel allocation policy and find a sizable dynamic externality individual fishermen respond to other users by exerting effort above the optimal level early in the season congestion is costly instantaneously but is beneficial in the long run because it partially offsets dynamic inefficiencies jel d24 q21 q22

optimal hedging under biased energy futures markets abstract optimal futures hedging positions for those agents trying to maximize their expected utility will depend on their view about the evolution of the market and on how risk adverse they are the most risk adverse agents will probably decide to full cover their positions but when a futures bias exists hedgers with moderate or low degree of risk aversion can alter their strategy depending on the expected gains in futures markets in our application to the uk natural gas market we find a statistically significant time varying negative futures bias that can be forecasted with confidence as a result of this bias most effective and best performing hedging strategies for moderate risk averse agents are those involving short long hedging in winter summer with a hedging ratio above below the minimum variance hedge ratio these findings are of great interest to practitioners in the uk natural gas markets and the methodology can be extrapolated to other energy markets

some new filter rule tests methods and results mechanical trading rules seem to have more potential than previous tests found fama and blume 1966 looking at the dow 30 of the late 1950s found no profits for the best vipercent rule after adjusting for transactions costs fifteen of these stocks looked profitable in their sample however for the same rule the surviving fourteen show statistically significant profits for 1970 1982 for transactions costs obtainable by floor traders the test used here assumes constant risk premia or more generally that risk premia are on average approximately the same on days in as for the total period

an integrated system for management and policy analysis this paper develops an analytical framework to simulate management and policy driven environmental changes in swedish mountain environments the framework is based on a dynamic model that includes economic connections between timber and reindeer economic benefits are obtained in the timber sector and the reindeer sector by harvesting forest and reindeer stocks and selling the harvests in markets unharvested forest and reindeer stocks provide benefits outside of markets reindeer stocks provide benefits by supporting the reindeer husbandry lifestyle for members of the indigenous saami population the paper analyzes decisions made by a hypothetical planner of a geographical area corresponding to a swedish sameby saami village decision outcomes are measured using the present value of net benefits measured in economic terms and are obtained both inside and outside of economic markets the final section gives examples of management and policy decisions that might be simulated for swedish mountain environments such as market based policies to increase the economic welfare derived from private timber and reindeer harvests

oil and the macroeconomy when prices go up and down an extension of hamilton s results in an important paper hamilton 1983 demonstrated a strong correlation between oil price changes and gross national product growth in u s data however his study pertained to a period in which all the large oil price movements were upward and thus it left unanswered the question whether the correlation persists in periods of price decline moreover the price variable he used was somewhat distorted by price controls in the 1970s this note investigates whether hamilton s results continue to hold when the sample is extended to include the recent oil market collapse and the oil price variable is corrected for the effects of price controls particular attention is given to the possibility of asymmetric responses to oil price increases and decreases as suggested in the structural employment literature loungani 1986 davis 1987 hamilton 1988 like hamilton i based my investigation on the gnp equation in sims s 1 980b six variable quarterly vector autoregressive model