the valuation of american options with stochastic interest rates a generalization of the geske johnson technique the geske johnson approach provides an efficient and intuitively appealing technique for the valuation and hedging of american style contingent claims here we generalize their approach to a stochastic interest rate economy the method is implemented using options exercisable on one of a finite number of dates we illustrate how the value of an american style option increases with interest rate volatility the magnitude of this effect depends on the extent to which the option is in the money the volatilities of the underlying asset and the interest rates as well as the correlation between them

market behavior in bid offer and double auctions abstract this study examines the robustness of the previously observed smith 1964 differences in market behavior between double auctions both buyers and sellers may enter price quotes bid auctions only buyers may enter price quotes and offer auctions only sellers may enter price quotes based on the results of twenty one market experiments we find little support for the a priori hypothesis that bid auction prices tend to be greater than double auction prices which tend to be greater than offer auction prices

the effects of rent asymmetries in posted offer markets abstract we report the results of six posted offer market experiments designed to analyze the effects of asymmetric supply and demand configurations on the price convergence path to competitive equilibrium the posted offer experiments are compared with twelve double auction experiments reported by smith and williams 1982 results differ markedly across trading institutions unlike trading under double auction rules we cannot reject the proposition that contract price convergence paths are unaffected by the distribution of consumer and producer surplus posted offer contract prices tend to converge to the competitive equilibrium from above regardless of the distribution of the exchange surplus

the early exercise of american puts abstract this paper shows that american puts on dividend paying stocks are most likely to be exercised either just after an ex dividend date or just prior to expiration at any other time the option to exercise an american put early may have less value thus put writers and converters can predict when protection against premature exercise will be most valuable the probability of early exercise is shown to be sensitive to managerial policy regarding the suspension of dividend payments transaction costs and interest rates however dividend payments are demonstrated to be the primary deterrent to early exercise

the effects of rent asymmetries in experimental auction markets abstract we report the results of twelve double auction market experiments designed to analyze the effects of asymmetric induced supply and demand configurations on the price convergence path toward a competitive equilibrium the proposition convergence bias that prices tend to approach the competitive equilibrium from above below when consumer surplus is greater less than producer surplus cannot be rejected we do however reject the proposition convergence symmetry that these convergence biases are of equal absolute magnitude excesses of producer over consumer surplus are found to have a more pronounced effect on the sequence of contract prices

female and small scale employment under modernization in ghana the hypothesis that female employment opportunities in agriculture and traditional small scale production are diminished in the early stages of industrialization is refuted in the case of ghana where female labor force participation has risen despite rapid industrialization this paper analyzes the impact of industrialization on small scale production and the predominance of women in such production female labor force participation increased from 57 to 64 in the 1960s while male participation declined from 89 to 84 however sectoral analysis of employment patterns reveals that womens employment gains were restricted to the traditional sectors the modern sector provided only 6 of new female employment compared with 61 of new employment for males on the other hand agriculture absorbed 46 of the increased female employment but only 10 of increased male employment small scale manufacturing accounted for 26 of the total employment increase in the 1960s female participation in these industries rose from 60 70 in 1962 70 whereas it fell from 23 18 in non small scale industries these results suggest that modernization is needed biased against female employment however there is no support in the case of ghana for the hypothesis that modernization occurs at the expense of cottage industry to utilize the resource of female labor power and to incorporate women into the development process policies need to be oriented toward generating demand for small scale production and avoiding subsidization of competing large scale firms

the american put option valued analytically an analytic solution to the american put problem is derived herein the hedge ratio and other derivatives of the solution are presented the formula derived implies an exact duplicating portfolio for the american put consisting of discount bonds and stock sold short the formula is extended to consider put options on stocks paying cash dividends a polynomial expression is developed for evaluating these formulae values and hedge ratios for puts on both dividend and nondividend paying stocks are calculated tabulated and compared with values derived by numerical integration and binomial approximation as with european options evaluating an analytic formula is more efficient than approximating the stock price process or the partial differential equation by binomial or finite difference methods finally applications of this american put solution are discussed

convergence to nonstationary competitive equilibria an experimental analysis abstract this paper reports the results of 26 posted offer and double auction markets examining the effect of systematic supply and or demand nonstationarities on market performance and dynamic adjustment paths to the competitive equilibria both the trading institution and the source of the nonstationarity are found to affect the ability of markets to track the competitive equilibrium although some posted offer markets track the competitive equilibrium price as well as comparable double auctions posted offer markets consistently exhibit lower efficiency the inability of the posted offer trading institution to track demand based market shocks is particularly striking

the accelerated binomial option pricing model this paper describes the application of a convergence acceleration technique to the binomial option pricing model the resulting model termed the accelerated binomial option pricing model also can be viewed as an approximation to the geske johnson model for the value of the american put the new model is accurate and faster than the conventional binomial model it is applicable to a wide range of option pricing problems

bond pricing and the term structure of interest rates a new methodology for contingent claims valuation this paper presents a unifying theory for valuing contingent claims under a stochastic term structure of interest rates the methodology based on the equivalent martingale measure technique takes as given an initial forward rate curve and a family of potential stochastic processee for its subsequent movements a no arbitrage condition restricts this family of processes yielding valuation formulae for interest rate sensitive contingent claims which do not explicitly depend on the market prices of risk examples are provided to illustrate the key results in relation to the term structure of interest rates arbitrage pricing theory has two purposes the first is to price all zero coupon default free bonds of varying maturities from a finite number of economic fundamentals called state variables the second is to price all interest rate sensitive contingent claims taking as given the prices of the zero coupon bonds this paper presents a general theory and a unifying framework for understanding arbitrage pricing theory in this context of which all existing arbitrage pricing models are special cases in particular vasicek 1977 brennan and schwartz 1979 langetieg 1980 ball and torous 1983 ho and lee 1986 schaefer and schwartz 1987 and artzner and delbaen 1988 the primary contribution of this paper however is a new methodology for solving the second problem i e the pricing of interest rate sensitive contingent claims given the prices of all zero coupon bonds the methodology is new because i it imposes its stochastic structure directly on the evolution of the forward rate curve ii it does not require an inversion of the term structure to eliminate the market prices of risk from contingent claim values and iii it has a stochastic spot rate process with multiple stochastic factors influencing the term structure the model can be used to consistently price and hedge all contingent claims american or european on the term structure and it is derived from necessary and more importantly sufficient conditions for the absence of arbitrage the arbitrage pricing models of vasicek 1977 brennan and schwartz 1979 langetieg 1980 and artzner and delbaen 1988 all require an iformerly titled bond pricing and the term structure of interest rates a new methodology

trends in female labor force participation in sweden labor force participation of married women increased from 49 1 to 83 5 during the past 2 decades by cross section estimates on micro data of the probability of labor force participation in 1967 1973 and 1980 and by using these estimates for predicting changes in labor force participation we have found that increases in own wage has been by far the most important explanatory factor women s real wages have increased relative to husband s after tax earnings both as an effect of the introduction of compulsory separate taxation in 1971 and as an effect of dramatically decreased sex differentials in pay partly associated with increased female education

the valuation of american options on bonds abstract we value american options on bonds using a generalization of the geske johnson geske r johnson h 1984 journal of finance 39 1151 1542 gj technique the method requires the valuation of european options and options with multiple exercise dates it is shown that a risk neutral valuation relationship rnvr along the lines of black scholes black f scholes m 1973 journal of political economy 81 637 659 model holds for options exercisable on multiple dates even under stochastic interest rates when the price of the underlying asset is lognormally distributed the proposed computational procedure uses the maximized value of these options where the maximization is over all possible exercise dates the value of the american option is then computed by richardson extrapolation the volatility of the underlying default free bond is modeled using a two factor model with a short term and a long term interest rate factor we report the results of simulations of american option values using our method and show how they vary with the key parameter inputs such as the maturity of the bond its volatility and the option strike price

in search of predatory pricing can predatory pricing be reproduced in a laboratory environment we report research motivated by this objective we began with conditions that based on the literature appeared to combine the features this literature has suggested are favorable to the emergence of predation next we operationalized what was meant by predatory pricing in our design in order to compare prices with predictions from alternative theories of 10 experiments none evidenced predatory behavior most supported the dominant firm theory the second series of experiments addresses remedies for predation and finds that the effect is to increase prices and reduce efficiency

female income and the divorce decision evidence from micro data escalating divorce rates during the 1960s and 1970s led to large numbers of academic investigations into the causes of divorce most of these studies concentrated on a significant increase in female income that resulted from rising female labour force participation rates the difficulty with quantifying these arguments is that it is possible to observe the income of married females or it is possible to observe the income of divorced females but it is not possible to observe both outcomes simultaneously this research attempts to resolve these difficulties by using sample selection techniques to correct for possible bias from simple observation of the income of married and divorced females

search theoretic models of the labor market a survey we survey the literature on search theoretic models of the labor market we show how this approach addresses many issues including the following why do workers sometimes choose to remain unemployed what determines the lengths of employment and unemployment spells how can there simultaneously exist unemployed workers and unfilled vacancies what determines aggregate unemployment and vacancies how can homogeneous workers earn different wages what are the tradeoffs firms face from different wages how do wages and turnover interact what determines efficient turnover we discuss various modeling choices concerning wage determination and the meeting process including recent models of directed search

on the market risk involved in the public financial system in japan a theoretical and numerical investigation abstract treating the postal savings system and the fiscal investments and loans program in japan as an integrated financial institution this paper analyzes the market risk involved in this system for this purpose the paper pays particular attention to options embedded in both assets and liabilities this paper finds that 1 the current rule for determining interest rates on the postal savings account well reflects the values of the embedded put options and 2 due to the flexible options the system tends to entail high market risks in particular as spot rates go up the duration of liabilities becomes extremely short with anticipation of early withdrawal

market contestability in the presence of sunk entry costs this article extends previous laboratory experimental research to examine the competitive discipline of contested markets with a natural monopoly type cost structure where sunk costs are neither zero nor infinite several alternative conjectures as to how or whether sunk costs can weaken the discipline of contested markets are presented and interpreted in the context of the experimental design sunk costs are found to weaken the support for strong interpretations of the contestable markets hypothesis and thus yield a wide diversity of dynamic patterns of market performance yet the disciplining power of contestability remains impressive with no indications of sustained monopoly pricing

the effects of market organization on conspiracies in restraint of trade abstract mindful of the market structure conduct performance paradigm fundamental to industrial organization research this paper uses laboratory experimental techniques to study the impact of conspiratorial opportunities on market performance we compare posted offer markets where sellers but not buyers are all conspiratorial opportunities with observations from three control groups 1 posted offer markets without conspiratorial opportunities 2 double auction markets with conspiratorial opportunities and 3 posted offer markets with true single seller monopolists the basic conclusions generated by our experimental design are 1 seller conspiracies in posted offer markets tend to raise prices but not profits relative to similarly organized markets without conspiracies 2 posted offer conspiracies tend to generate higher prices but not profits than double auction conspiracies and 3 posted offer monopolies tend to generate higher profits but not prices then posted offer conspiracies

the trend in the male female wage gap in the united states despite the rise in the feminist movement the enactment of equal opportunity legislation and the rapid increase in women s labor force participation a substantial sex differential in wages has persisted in the united states for at least 4 decades measured by hourly earnings of year round workers this wage gap was 31 in 1955 widened to a 35 37 range by the 1960s and early 1970s and then narrowed to 33 by 1982 this paper examines the extent to which changes in the characteristics of men and women in the labor force and other factors can account for the observed pattern the main finding is that increases in women s labor force participation were initially associated with a declining skill level of employed women relative to employed men where skill is measured by years of schooling and job tenure more recently the work experience of employed women has been increasing which helps account for the recent narrowing trend in the wage gap during the 1970s the wage gap probably woul have narrowed m

taxing family size and subsidizing child specific commodities abstract the effects and optimal choice of policy instruments directly affecting the welfare of parents and children are examined within the context of a household economics model if fertility were exogenous and households differed in number of children only a first best could be implement through a grant conditional on family size outside this very special case public intervention is either not justifiable on distributional grounds or involves taxing child specific commodities less than adult specific commodities if fertility is endogenous family size must be taxed or subsidized according to whether household expenditure on children is decreasing or increasing in the mother s wage rate

an analysis of women s labor force participation in france cross section estimates and time series evidence this paper examines labor force participation of women in france and its evolution over time cross section estimates of a logit model measure the effects on participation of wives wages husbands earnings families unearned income and number of children they are found to be in accordance with theory applied to historical data these estimates overpredict actual changes a new specification of the participation model using as endogenous variable the fraction of lifetime after leaving school spent in the labor force shows that the effect of the main explanatory variable education changed over time this model gives accurate predictions

from mill town to board room the rise of women s paid labor the widespread participation of women in paid labor outside of the home and in the highest echelons of society would have been unheard of a century ago this paper documents this dramatic change in women s social and economic status and argues that it was determined both by contemporaneous demand factors and by the characteristics expectations and social norms regarding work and family of different cohorts of women history suggests that change in women s labor force experiences may be slow because it must await the entry of new cohorts of women and also of men into the labor market

inflation and other aggregate determinants of the trend in us divorce rates since the 1960s this article extends empirical research on the determinants of divorce in two ways first i examine the effect of inflation on divorce second the use of a structural time series modelling approach attributes unobservables and omitted variables to an unobserved component which allows for the model s parameters to be estimated consistently inflation is statistically significant positive and persistent i show that the effects of inflation are robust to the inclusion of additional explanatory variables and various trend specifications the long run implications of inflation are also substantial i conclude that price stability has the potential to reduce divorce rates

changes in labor force participation in the united states the labor force participation rate in the united states increased almost continuously for two and a half decades after the mid 1960s pausing only briefly during economic downturns the pace of growth slowed considerably during the 1990s however and after reaching a record high of 67 3 percent in the first quarter of 2000 participation had declined by 1 5 percentage points by 2005 this paper reviews the social and demographic trends that contributed to the movements in the labor force participation rate in the second half of the twentieth century it also examines the manner in which developments in the 2000s reflect a break from past trends and considers implications for the future

intercountry comparisons of labor force trends and of related developments an overview this paper is a survey of analyses of women s labor force growth in 12 industrialized countries originally presented at a conference in sussex england in june 1983 the main focus of the conference papers and of the current survey is on growth of the labor force of married women in the years 1960 80 trends in fertility wages and family instability also receive attention as related developments married women s labor force growth is observed in all countries except for the ussr after 1970 where labor force rates of women reached the level of men growth rates differ among countries they apparently respond to growth in real wages and to growth in education but response elasticities differ among countries estimates of these elasticities contained in the country papers were helpful in predicting the trends other findings include ubiquitous declines in fertility and growth of divorce in the 1970s both developments are related to long run labor force growth in all countries wages of women were lo

female labor force participation in developing and developed countries consideration of the informal sector t he steady increase in the labor force participation of married women in the united states over the last few decades has stimulated considerable interest in the economic analysis of a woman s decision to work pioneering work by mincer 1962 and cain 1966 has served as a theoretical and empirical foundation for numerous studies of female labor force participation this research typically treats a woman s current labor force status measured as a dummy variable for the individual and as a rate for the population as a measure of labor supply which depends upon economic and demographic characteristics such as female earnings male earnings non earnings income schooling work experience age number of children and so on notable examples are bowen and finegan 1969 cogan 1975 1978 gronau 1973 heckman 1974 1980 and schultz 1980 while the associated theoretical models and statistical techniques have been refined considerably especially by lewis 1972 ben porath 1973 and heckman 1974 1979 the coefficients estimated using u s data have remained reasonably robust also there is substantial agreement among micro level and aggregate results see cain 1966 and bowen and finegan 1969 for comparisons as this body of literature has grown the economic models developed within it have been implemented to analyze the labor force behavior of women in other countries however there is no consistent international pattern in the behavioral trends of the female labor force perhaps the most notable difference in the economic opportunities available to women in many other countries is that they may work in the informal sector of the labor market women may be considered economically active and may be counted as being in the labor force as they produce goods at home for market sale work on the family farm or work in a small family run business the most convenient means of categorizing workers as being in the informal sector is by their employment status following jaffe and azumi 1960 we assume that women reported as self employed or as family workers are engaged in the informal sector of the labor force almost all women in the u s labor force work as employees only 6 6 worked as self employed or family workers in 1978 given japan s advanced economic development a surprisingly large fraction 38 4 in 1978 of its female labor force comprises self employed and family workers clearly in the united states and countries with a similar distribution of the labor force by employment status the labor force participation decision may be treated as the choice to work or not to work however if individuals regard the decision to enter the labor force as an employee as being distinct from the choice to enter the labor force as a family worker then economic models of labor force participation which treat these choices as identical will incorporate a specification bias the labor force participation decision may differ between these two sectors for several reasons first the wage offers may differ by sector second while entering the informal sector may be virtually frictionless there may be fixed costs among them commuting time and child care associated with working in the formal sector third family workers may face more flexible working schedules than paid employees the latter group may be subject to contractual working hours in order to treat the labor force decisions in coiuntines with significant informal sectors this received for publication march 16 1981 revision accepted for publication september 15 1982 rutgers university this paper is a revision of work begun with my doctoral dissertation i would like to thank h gregg lewis and t dudley wallace for their suggestions and hideo okamoto for providing the data set i would also like to thank david crawford toshiaki tachibanaki two anonymous referees and the participants of the columbia labor workshop the japan economic seminar and the yale labor and population workshop for their comments remaining errors are my own this research was supported by a postdoctoral fellowship from the national institutes of health additional funding was provided by the william and flora hewlett foundation grant to the yale economic demography program i statistical abstract of the u s and japan statistical yearbook

simple binomial processes as diffusion approximations in financial models a binomial approximation to a diffusion is defined as computationally simple if the number of nodes grows at most linearly in the number of time intervals it is shown how to construct computationally simple binomial processes that converge weakly to commonly employed diffusions in financial models the convergence of the sequence of bond and european option prices from these processes to the corresponding values in the diffusion limit is also demonstrated numerical examples from the constant elasticity of variance stock price and the cox ingersoll and ross 1985 discount bond price are provided article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

an analysis of trends in female labor force participation in japan until recently the aggregate female labor force participation rate in japan has shown a secular declining trend throughout the postwar period of economic development participation of paid female employees alone exhibits a steadily rising trend more or less comparable to that in the united states and european countries although the fertility rate dropped drastically shortly after world war ii in the subsequent period increases in female education and a relative improvement of female wages appear to have promoted a substantial increase in paid female employment labor supply equations for paid employees estimated from time series data provide negative income and positive wage elasticities cross sectional analysis gives reasonable results particularly for middle age wives absolute values of estimated wage elasticity notably have almost always been smaller than income elasticity unlike many research findings in the united states

the hayek hypothesis in experimental auctions institutional effects and market power the hayek hypothesis in experimental auctions institutional effects and market power we report twelve market experiments utilizing a seller market power supply and demand structure where two of five sellers can unilaterally increase their profit by withholding supply the data indicate that both the double auction and posted offer institutions result in traders extracting the bulk of the potential gains from exchange in the market however prices generally occur above the competitive equilibrium prediction market power in the form of strategic supply withholding does not appear to be responsible for the supra competitive prices i introduction one important result arising from experimental market research is that the information flows and contracting rules which define the institutional structure of a market can exert a pronounced influence on market performance such institutional features may be more important than some traditional structural characteristics in determining whether market outcomes will correspond to the predictions of the competitive model in particular a large and growing body of experimental data suggests that markets can generate efficient outcomes even when there are a relatively small number of buyers and sellers with incomplete information on the underlying structure of the market based on evidence from a wide variety of experimental double auction markets vernon smith 1982 167 has expressed this more formally as the hayek hypothesis markets economize on information in the sense that strict privacy together with the public messages of the market are sufficient to produce efficient ce competitive equilibrium outcomes in this statement however the notion of an efficient ce outcome could be interpreted as 1 a simple efficiency claim that all exchange surplus will be extracted or 2 a price claim that all exchange surplus will be extracted via trades at the competitive equilibrium price a recent study by holt langan and villamil 1986 hereafter hlv examines the validity of the hayek hypothesis using the double auction institution and a market structure designed to provide a rather difficult test for the competitive model hlv s market power design provides a subset of sellers with an incentive to unilaterally generate a price increase via the strategic withholding of supply the resulting price deviation from the competitive equilibrium is substantial but results in a relatively small loss of market efficiency thus the price interpretation of the hayek hypothesis is violated in this design if holders of market power recognize their position and successfully affect prices to their advantage the efficiency interpretation however will still hold approximately even with the successful exercise of market power in fact the price interpretation of the hayek hypothesis tends to break down in hlv s markets but the efficiency interpretation tends to hold hlv report deviations from the competitive equilibrium price consistent with the exercise of market power in three of five seller market power experiments they also conjecture that deviations from the competitive equilibrium may increase as participants become more experienced with the trading institution this paper reports the results of twelve experiments that build on hlv s research our experiments compare market performance in hlv s seller market power smp design using both the double auction and posted offer trading institutions our purpose in conducting these experiments is twofold first we are interested in examining the effects of changes in trading institutions on deviations from the competitive equilibrium price in the smp design second to the extent that competitive equilibrium price deviations are observed we are interested in assessing whether the exercise of market power in the form of strategic withholding is the source of these deviations

participation and hours of work two stages in the life cycle of married women abstract a 1979 cross section of dutch households is used to estimate an integrated labor force participation and hours of work labor supply model for women young women and older women are found to behave differently wage and income elasticities are always higher for older than for younger women in absolute terms and the relative importance of participation and hours elasticities is reversed as the average woman grows older thereby implying that younger women tend to be more preoccupied with the participation decision whereas older women are more concerned with the hours decision econometrically the paper builds on heckman s 1974 participation cum hours model by adapting the estimation method to allow for the fact that hours worked are only observed in intervals a maximum likelihood model in which we integrate over parts of the hours distribution is used this technique though computationally involved gave satisfying results we compare the results with estimates of a similar but much simpler probit model to identify the possible biases in the simpler approach

a simple approach to interest rate option pricing a simple introduction to contingent claim valuation of risky assets in a discrete time stochastic interest rate economy is provided taking the term structure of interest rates as exogenous closed form solutions are derived for european options written on 1 treasury bills 2 interest rate forward contracts 3 interest rate futures contracts 4 treasury bonds 5 interest rate caps 6 stock options 7 equity forward contracts 8 equity futures contracts 9 eurodollar liabilities and 10 foreign exchange contracts article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

a one factor model of interest rates and its application to treasury bond options 1990 a one factor model of interest rates and its application to treasury bond options financial analysts journal vol 46 no 1 pp 33 39

a note on the convergence of binomial pricing and compound option models the binomial pricing model of cox ross and rubinstein 2 and the compound option model of geske 3 are both elegant and self contained frameworks for the valuation of american options and related contingent claims each providing us with a distinctive valuation procedure flexible enough to be adapted to a wide variety of problems for american type options on assets with a prices following a lognormal diffusion process and b a continuous time exercise policy such as put options on individual stocks calls and puts on foreign exchange and calls and puts on futures contracts the binomial pricing model approximates both the stochastic process and the exercise opportunity set the latter by restricting exercise to a discrete set of dates the compound option model on the other hand approximates only the exercise opportunity set however it pays for this with a high price in computational requirements specifically with n exercise dates allowed multivariate normal probabilities of every order up to and including n must be evaluated in their article on the valuation of put options geske and johnson 4 provide an ingenious solution to this problem by applying acceleration techniques common in numerical analysis but new to the finance literature letting t be the time to expiration of the option and p the value of a compound option with exercise permitted at the n uniformly spaced dates t n 2t n t they generate the sequence of compound option values p1 p2 pn polynomial extrapolation is then used to estimate p lim n x oo pn they found this procedure to be very accurate over a limited sample of put options with low values of n though not discussed by geske and johnson the reasons for the effectiveness of acceleration techniques in a compound option model are apparent from a cursory examination an acceleration technique will perform best when the approximating sequence converges uniformly on the true value of the contingent claim and worst when convergence includes complex and unpredictable oscilla

an analytic approximation for the american put price black and scholes 1 derived the pricing equation for a european put when the stock price follows geometric brownian motion for this same case merton 5 derived the pricing equation for an american put with infinite time to maturity brennan and schwartz 2 rubinstein and cox 7 and parkinson 6 have developed numerical solutions for the price of an american put numerical solutions are expensive and do not provide much intuition naturally an analytic solution would be much preferred unfortunately pricing the american put requires solving a formidable and presumably intractable boundary value problem

asymmetric surplus distribution and the price convergence path in posted offer markets a note abstract we report results from five posted offer experiments with firm specific quotas the average contract price converges from below the competitive equilibrium thus the independence of the contract price convergence path from surplus distribution is questioned in our results

a comparison of posted offer and double auction pricing institutions this paper presents an experimental study of a computerized posted offer pricing mechanism that captures many of the basic institutional features of retail exchange in the u s posted offer market performance is evaluated relative to double auction market performance using two supply and demand designs subject experience with the trading mechanism is explicitly considered as an experimental treatment variable the market data suggest that prices tend to be higher and efficiency lower under posted offer pricing relative to double auction however the institutional effect appears to interact with other design conditions when feasible the predictive power of competitive nash and limit price theoretic equilibria are empirically evaluated

term structure movements and pricing interest rate contingent claims this paper derives an arbitrage free interest rate movements model ar model this model takes the complete term structure as given and derives the subsequent stochastic movement of the term structure such that the movement is arbitrage free we then show that the ar model can be used to price interest rate contingent claims relative to the observed complete term structure of interest rates this paper also studies the behavior and the economics of the model our approach can be used to price a broad range of interest rate contingent claims including bond options and callable bonds

family structure home time demands and the employment patterns of japanese married women a recent 1990 national survey is used in an econometric analysis of japanese women s hourly pay and employment patterns it confirms many results from western industrial countries but also indicates the important influence of japan s unique family structure the persistence of multigenerational households on married women s employment patterns younger married women are more likely to take paid employment in such households particularly on a full time basis than in nuclear family households this appears to reflect in part the child care role played by the woman s parents or parents in law

why is the labour force participation of women declining in india summary this paper explores the recent fall in female labour force participation and its socio economic determinants in india the major contribution of this paper is to explore both micro and macro level factors which determine female labour force participation rate lfpr to examine the u shape female lfpr by examining the likely income and substitution effects of the real wage increase to identify the sub sectors within manufacturing and service sectors that could create jobs for new female job aspirants and those older women displaced from agriculture in recent years and thus to understand the conditions under which female lfpr could be raised using both macro level and household survey nss data we find that the recent fillip in the process of structural transformation has pushed a large number of females out of agriculture the growing mechanization in agriculture and rising capital intensity in manufacturing sectors together have limited the opportunity for females because of their low education and skill and due to other cultural constraints we also found that the rise in real wages in rural areas and the consequent improvement in the standard of living has produced a strong negative income effect which outweighs the positive substitution effect and as a result female lfpr has declined substantially however with the massive increase in female enrollment in secondary and higher levels of education it could be expected that the substitution effect of the increase in real wage would become stronger if appropriate measures are taken by the government which are suggested

ocupational segregation labour force participation and the relative earnings of men and women a model of the labour market is developed in which particiaption rates of men and women wages rates of men and women and occupational segregation are determined simultaneously the model is estimated using cross sectional data from australia the most important empirical results are that a particiaption rates wage rates and occupational segregation should be viewed as being simultaneously determined b differences in male and female labour force attactment and human capital attainment are important determinants of the gender composition of occupations and c there is little direct evidence in this study to support discrimination based theories of occupational segregation

advance production in experimental markets the effects of advance production in posted offer and double auction markets are investigated previously observed differences between these institutions in mean contract prices and in the distribution of producers and consumers surpluses under the production to demand condition disappear when sellers make output decisions and incur production costs prior to the start of trading the double auction institution remains more efficient under advance production the results suggest that the differential effects of alternative trading institutions on market outcomes may be partially offset by the production conditions characterizing a market

female labour force participation and economic growth in the south mediterranean countries abstract we investigate the relationship between female labour force participation and economic growth in the south mediterranean countries with a two step methodology of econometric exercise and general equilibrium modelling econometric estimations on female labour participation confirm the u shaped function and the presence of region specific barriers estimations have been employed in a satellite manner to a general equilibrium model for the simulation of i changes in female labour force participation as a result of income developments and ii lowering of region specific barriers to female labour force participation the results suggest that while the first may lead to marginally lower economic growth the second may have a considerable positive impact on growth

investments in the schooling and health of women and men quantities and returns this paper surveys the evidence on recent trends in the growth of human capital investments in women that raised womens productivity in thus century in most countries patterns in school investments in men and women across regions and across birth cohorts within countries indicate that expected years of school enrollment is converging between low and high income countries to where the gaps have closed from about seven years in 1950 to five years in 1985 women today are receiving nearly as many years of education as men in industrially advanced high income countries latin america south east and east asia are relatively similar to the high income countries at the other extreme in most of the countries of south and west asia and north and sub saharan africa women receive about two fifths to three fourths the number of years of schooling as men do in every region however the ratio of female to male expected years of enrollment increased from 1950 to 1985 gender differences in mortality and nutritional status reveal that there has been a dramatic but largely unexplained advance in female longevity relative to male in the 20th century in most countries with the exception of certain countries in south asia this development is associated with the shift of populations from dependence on agriculture to working in urban areas these changes are a major source of decreasing inequality within and between countries in this century market failure could be responsible for families investing less than the socially efficient amount in girls than boys there are problems in measuring without bias these private and social return empirical patterns across countries in estimated returns to schooling illustrate that private returns at the primary secondary and higher education levels can vary for women and men

shifts over time and regional variation in women s labor force participation rates in a developing economy abstract in this study an attempt is made a to explain the decline and the inter area variation in women s activity rates in greece during the process of its economic development b to ascertain if there were any shifts in the relevant relationships over time and c to estimate women s hidden unemployment the decline in activity rates was explained with the help of the hypothesis of a u shaped impact of economic development on them among the most important findings were the considerable discouraging effect on labor force participation of unemployment and the negative impact of education women s hidden unemployment was found to be two to three times larger than reported unemployment

competitive equilibrium convergence in a posted offer market with extreme earnings inequities abstract we present the results of five laboratory posted offer experiments in which the competitive equilibrium model predicts that all exchange profits are received by one side of the market thus defining a boundary condition price converges to the prediction more slowly when buyers rather than sellers receive the exchange surplus apparently due to the increased market power of sellers in this trading mechanism a model of the seller s decision in this market is developed to explain this result we also observe costly signalling and tacit collusion in our experiments

work and family roles of soviet women historical trends and cross section analysis over the last two generations women in soviet russia reached the highest labor force participation rate in the world as everywhere else the process was accompanied by a sharp rise in their educational attainment and a similarly sharp decline in fertility on the basis of data about families of soviet emigrants during the early 1970s it is shown that soviet women respond to the same economic variables that create similar trends in market economies socialist ideology and soviet growth strategy help on the one hand to expedite the process but on the other amplify the contradiction between women s family and labor market roles and result in relatively low wages for women

time dependent variance and the pricing of bond options in this paper we develop a model for valuing debt options that takes into account the changing characteristics of the underlying bond by assuming that the standard deviation of return is proportional to the bond s duration the resulting model uses the bond price as the single state variable and thus preserves much of the simplicity and robustness of the black scholes approach the paper provides comparisons between option prices computed using this model and those using the black scholes and brennan and schwartz models the last decade has seen a dramatic increase in the volatility of bond markets leading to a growing interest in financial instruments that can be used to hedge this risk thus in the u s canada and the u k there has been a proliferation of new interest rate dependent securities such as bond futures options on bonds options on bond futures swap agreements and bonds with option features such as callability putability retractability and so forth with the development of these markets the problems of valuation and the derivation of the hedging strategies have become subjects of increasing importance to both practitioners and academics several valuation methods have been suggested in the literature but so far no consensus has emerged as to the best solution to these problems the simplest approach to the valuation of debt options and probably the most widely used in practice is the black scholes model 3 this method originally developed for the valuation of stock options assumes that the variance of the rate of return on the underlying security is constant while this assumption is plausible for common stocks it is clearly unreasonable for bonds with a finite maturity the distinctive feature of the problem of debt option valuation is that the characteristics of the underlying asset change over time because the price is constrained to converge to the face value of the bond at maturity a second drawback of the black scholes approach is that it assumes a constant short term interest rate an assumption that is clearly inconsistent with stochastic returns on bonds in spite of these problems the black scholes model has been frequently used in practice to value debt options because of its overwhelming simplicity in comparison with other available methods

feminization of the labor force the effects of long term development and structural adjustment abstract using crosscountry data pooled for 1985 and 1990 we analyze the relationship between women s share of the labor force and the processes of long term economic development and macroeconomic changes associated with structural adjustment we find that the relationship between long term development and women s share of the labor force is u shaped controlling for the feminization u we also find that structural adjustment policies have led to an increase in feminization of the labor force via worsening income distribution and increased openness

marital status and fertility in the united states welfare and labor market effects the incidence of marriage and the proportion of childbearing that occurs within marriage have decreased sharply in the united states in the last several decades this paper examines whether the probability that a woman is currently married and the number of children she has borne as reported in the 1980 u s census are related to two identifiable factors the variation in welfare programs across states specifically afdc and medicaid benefits and afdc up expenditures or the variation in the market wage opportunities available to women and to their potential husbands afdc and medicaid benefit levels are associated with fewer women being currently married medicaid benefits are related to lower fertility levels for both black and white women whereas afdc benefits in cash and food are associated with lower fertility among white women ages 15 24 those states that extend afdc benefits to families with unemployed parents in other words fathers in intact poor families do not have significantly more women married or higher fertility rates contrary to what might be expected from economic incentives men s market wages are associated with more frequent marriage and higher fertility whereas higher market wage opportunities for women have substantial effects in the opposite direction all of which are consistent with standard models of gender specialization and the demand for marriage and fertility

trends in labor force participation of spanish women an interpretive essay this paper describes trends in labor force participation of spanish women since 1900 earnings generating functions and logit participation models are estimated using a 1979 survey of married women estimates are shown to overpredict historical changes in labor force participation rates a new specification of the participation model using average experience of married women as endogenous variable produces estimates that fit time series data these results suggest an increasing effect of education on participation which confirms schultz s hypothesis of increasing returns to various quality components of the labor force in modernizing economies

equal employment opportunity in japan a view from the west the japanese equal employment opportunity law of 1985 effective in april 1986 prohibits gender discrimination with respect to recruitment hiring promotion training and job assignment the author describes the law and assesses its probable impact on the economic opportunities of japanese women she argues that two aspects of japan s socioeconomic environment the lifetime employment system used by large japanese private firms and the labor supply pattern of japanese women make it unlikely that the law will have a large impact on the economic status of women in japan

the valuation of american barrier options using the decomposition technique in this paper we propose an alternative approach for pricing and hedging american barrier options speci cally we obtain an analytic representation for the value and hedge parameters of barrier options using the decomposition technique of separating the european option value from the early exercise premium this allows us to identify some new put call symmetry relations and the homogeneity in price parameters of the optimal exercise boundary these properties can be utilized to increase the computational e ciency of our method in pricing and hedging american options our implementation of the obtained solution indicates that the proposed approach is both e cient and accurate in computing option values and option hedge parameters our numerical results also demonstrate that the approach dominates the existing lattice methods in both accuracy and e ciency in particular the method is free of the di culty that existing

the effects of rent asymmetries in markets characterized by advance production abstract the results of 40 controlled market sessions are reported the effects of advance production and the distribution of the market surplus between buyers and sellers on the relative performance of posted offer and double auction markets are compared with the relative performance of posted offer and double auction institutions in markets with production to order performance differences between the two institutions across production conditions as the surplus distributions are varied are similar but not identical the distribution of surplus appears to have an effect on the performance measures in advance production markets

she works hard for the money household responsibilities and the allocation of work effort recent developments in human capital theory suggest that men and women differ in how they allocate effort to work activities this paper uses the 1973 and 1977 quality of employment surveys to test the assumtion that women allocate less effort to work because of their family and household responsibilities regression and ordered probit analyses show that on average women allocate more effort to work than do men further the sex difference is substantial when men and women with comparable family situations and market human capital are compared the paper discusses how experiments on sex differences in standards of personal entitlement and research on sex segregated workplaces provide an alternative to the economists perspective finally the paper argues for an integration of human capital models research on social equity and structural theories of work organization in order to provide a more complete explanation of men s and women s orientations toward work and family

male female wage differentials and policy responses without implicating them for any of the contents of the paper i am grateful to the following for helpful discussions or comments andrea beller university of illinois david bloom harvard and columnbia glen cain university of wisconsin ron ehrenberg cornell victor fuchs stanford bob gregory australian national university jonathan leonard university of california berkeley roberta robb brock university and paul weiler harvard financial support of the humanities and social sciences committee of the research board of the universitu of toronto is eratefullu acknowlede ed

the pricing of call and put options on foreign exchange this paper derives pricing equations for european puts and calls on foreign exchange the call and put pricing formulas are unlike the black scholes equations for stock options in that there are two relevant interest rates interest rates are stochastic and boundary constraints differ in addition it is shown that both american call and put options have values larger than their european counterparts

children and household economic behavior this paper looks at some of the methodological issues that arise in modeling the effects of children on household behavior and presents some estimates for selected areas for our purposes household behavior will be taken to refer to household decisions on labor supply the allocation of expenditure to different periods and the decision as to what to do with the difference between income and expenditure i shall be concerned mainly with the effects of dependent children and i restrict attention largely to western societies excerpt

bond pricing and the term structure of interest rates a discrete time approximation this paper studies the binomial approximation to the continuous trading term structure model of heath jarrow and morton 1987 the discrete time approximation makes the original methodology accessible to a wider audience and provides a computational proce dure necessary for calculating the contingent claim values derived in the continuous time paper this paper also extends and generalizes ho and lee s 1986 model to include multiple random shocks to the forward rate process and to include an analysis of continu ous time limits the generalization provides insights into the limitations of the existing empirical implementation of ho and lee s model

an exact bond option formula this paper derives a closed form solution for european options on pure discount bonds assuming a mean reverting gaussian interest rate model as in vasicek 8 the formula is extended to european options on discount bond portfolios

jewish mother goes to work trends in the labor force participation of women in israel 1955 1980 the labor force participation of jewish women in israel increased between 1955 and 1980 accelerating in the 1970s schooling accounts for most of the change the sharpest rise is among mothers ages 25 44 thus differentials in participation by marital status have been sharply narrowed and the life cycle in participation has been transformed the m shaped curve being replaced by an inverted u with delayed labor force entry due to prolonged schooling and more continuous participation throughout the childbearing period the reduced incompatibility between child rearing and market work is associated with part time work and increased reliance on day care services the increased employment of women is concentrated in the service industries mostly public and is accompanied by some decline in the relative wage of highly educated women successive cross section estimates corroborate this picture in general but do not support the notion that over time preschool children interfere less in women s labor supply

the effect of remittances on labour supply in the republic of haiti we examine the labour supply effect of remittances in the republic of haiti the prime international remittances recipient country in the latin american and caribbean lac region relative to its gdp unlike previous empirical literature we address three econometric issues that may bias the estimates we account for endogeneity of the remittances with respect to labour supply for the zero inflated nature of our dependent variable hours of work and for the self selection of the migrant sample our results are in line with previous literature and point to a decline of labour supply in the presence of remittances however contrary to previous findings the labour market response to remittances of female household heads is not as sensitive as male s

internet job search and unemployment durations after decades of stability the technologies used by workers to locate new jobs began to change rapidly with the diffusion of internet access in the late 1990 s which types of persons incorporated the internet into their job search strategy and did searching for work on line help these workers find new jobs faster we address these questions using measures of internet job search derived from the december 1998 and august 2000 cps computer and internet supplements matched with job search outcomes from subsequent cps files we find that internet searchers are positively selected on observables but negatively selected on unobservables a beneficial unemployment duration reducing causal effect of internet job search is consistent with our estimates only if negative selection on unobservables is especially strong in other words only if the population of on line resumes is strongly adversely selected

female labour supply in australia another example of a backward bending labour supply curve abstract hours worked by employed married females in australia are analysed using techniques to correct for sample selection bias consistent with the conclusions of the study of female labour supply in the u s and canada by nakamura and nakamura 1981 working wives work fewer hours per week when paid higher hourly wage rates

for love or money or both this paper explores the implications for economic analysis societal well being and public policy of the movement of care services such as child and elder care from home to market a broad empirical overview sets the stage for the argument that this process cannot be properly evaluated using only a priori judgments about the suitability of marketization the context in which markets operate is crucial and while the growth of market provision poses some risks it also offers some potential benefits

natural monopoly and contested markets some experimental results a firm may become a monopolist because the average cost of producing the product reaches a minimum at an output rate that is big enough to satisfy the entire market at a price that is profitable in a situation of this sort if there is more than one firm producing the product each must be producing at a higher thanminimum level of average cost each may be inclined to cut the price to increase its output rate and reduce its average costs the result is likely to be economic warfare and the survival of a single victor the monopolist

women in the australian labor force trends causes and consequences since 1964 all the increase in female labor force participation in australia can be attributed to married women about 90 of the increase can be attributed to women employed part time the paper argues that aggregate female participation rate equations cannot be regarded as labor supply curves the female wage rate relative to that of males is exogenously determined by wage fixing authorities above market clearing rates and the excess supply of labor is not adequately measured by the unemployment rate married women and part time workers have a high propensity to bypass the unemployment pool when leaving or seeking a job participation equations are dominated by employment demand for sex segregated jobs

a model of female labor supply in italy using cohort data this paper attempts to develop a behavioral model of female labor supply in italy using cohort data our starting theoretical assumptions of perfect information intertemporal separability and utility maximization under a lifetime wealth constraint are relaxed in a second stage the results suggest that the flat female participation rate profile from both a time series and a cross section perspective is presumably produced by economic incentive effects that counter balance each other however with the recent rise in cohort specific earning power we identify a decrease in the work disincentive effects of aging and of children under 6

time series growth in the female labor force in this paper we investigate the reasons for the growth in the female labor force in america during the twentieth century in our research we study the longer term trends since 1900 and conduct a more intensive examination of developments after the second world war on the basis of our work we conclude that rising real wages accounted for 60 of the total growth in the female labor force half of this wage effect in expanding labor supply was the fertility reducing consequence of a higher female wage

schooling and earnings distributions with endogenous labour force participation marital status and family size this paper investigates the impact of various schooling investment strategies on family and per capita earnings within a framework that integrates effects on earnings family size marital status and labour force participation data are from a 1977 1978 survey of urban nicaraguan women aged 15 45 excerpt

the effects of information costs on search and convergence in experimental markets abstract nearly all markets contain some kind of friction making it difficult to reach full efficiency one ubiquitous source of market friction is the cost of obtaining pricing information we determine how market performance as well as buyer and seller behavior are affected by the introduction of price information costs in experimental posted markets rothschild journal of political economy 1973 1283 journal of political economy 1974 689 theorizes that search is negatively related to knowledge of the price dispersion and the cost of search and positively related to market price dispersion we find that market knowledge and the cost of search itself affect search but we find no evidence supporting the role of price dispersion in search decisions we also find evidence supporting smith and plott review of economic studies 1979 133 and walker and williams 1988 both of which show price convergence comes from below in posted bid markets and from above in posted offer markets high information costs tend to reduce or eliminate convergence average prices are above the market clearing price for posted offer markets and below for posted bid markets and never cross the market clearing threshold also consistent with walker and williams more generally our results support the notion of symmetry between experimental posted offer and posted bid markets broadening the relevance of experimental search research

discrete time valuation of american options with stochastic interest rates we develop an arbitrage free discrete time model to price american style claims for which domestic term structure risk foreign term structure risk and currency risk are important this model combines a discrete version of the heath jarrow and morton 1992 term structure model with the binomial model of cox ross and rubinstein 1979 it converges weakly to the continuous time models in amin and jarrow 1991 1992 the general model is path dependent and can be implemented with arbitrary volatility functions to value claims with maturity up to five years the model is illustrated with applications to long dated american currency warrants and a cross rate swap from the quanto class article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

path shifting of the welfare state electoral competition and the expansion of work family policies in western europe what explains the surprising growth of work family policies in several west european countries much research on the welfare state emphasizes its institutional stickiness and immunity to major change yet over the past two decades governments in germany the netherlands and the united kingdom have introduced important reforms to their welfare regimes enacting paid leave schemes expanded rights to part time work and greater investments in child care a comparison of these countries reveals a similar sequence of political and policy change faced with growing electoral instability and the decline of core constituencies party leaders sought to attract dealigning voter groups such as women this led them to introduce feminizing reforms of their party structures and adopt policies to support mothers employment in all three cases women working within the parties played an important role in hatching or lobbying for these reforms after comparing three countries that moved in a path shifting direction this article engages in a brief traveling exercise examining whether a similar set of dynamics are lacking in two countries austria and italy that have moved more slowly in reforming these policies against the prevailing scholarly literature that emphasizes path dependence and slow moving change this article reveals the continued power of electoral politics in shaping redistributive policies

consequences of the rise in female labor force participation rates questions and probes this paper discusses three independent inquiries into consequences of the rise in women s labor force participation rate lfpr in the united states since 1946 1 the growth in women s lfpr is decomposed by decade age marital status presence of age specific children and years of schooling 2 evidence on the impact of the growth on the inequality in income among husband wife families is summarized and the impact on income inequality in other family structures is discussed the effect on the level of family real income is considered and money illusion in measuring the change in income is noted 3 bivariate autoregressive time series are estimated with annual data from 1950 to 1980 indicating that lagged values of women s lfpr are systematically correlated with measures of flow fertility marriage schooling and men s income while only fertility has a strong persistent lagged correlation with lfpr

firm specific output limits in a posted offer market distributive and efficiency effects abstract in this paper we look at the effect of the removal of firm specific binding and non binding quotas in experimental posted offer markets in the experiments we see that the effect of both binding and non binding quotas is carried over to the deregulated regime the effect of non binding quotas while being in effect on the number of contracts is statistically significant we also see that distribution of surplus may actually affect the convergence path of prices that is with binding quotas price convergence is observed from below the competitive equilibrium

the valuation of options on futures contracts rational restrictions are derived for the values of american options on futures contracts for these options the optimal policy in general involves premature exercise a model is developed for valuing options on futures contracts in a constant interest rate setting despite the fact that premature exercise may be optimal the value of this american feature appears to be small and a european formula due to black serves as a useful approximation finally a model is developed to value these options in a world with stochastic interest rates it is shown that the pricing errors caused by ignoring the location of the interest rate relative to its long run mean range from 5 to 7 when the current rate is 200 basis points from its long run value the role of interest rate expectations is therefore crucial to the valuation optimal exercise policies are found from numerical methods for both models in recent years there has been a steady growth in the number of financial assets which one might properly call derivative assets that are available for trading on the organized exchanges among these the most recent and notable are options contracts written on available futures contracts options are now traded on the futures contracts on stock market indexes on the futures contracts on treasury instruments on the futures contracts on foreign exchange rates and on the futures contracts on some metals in design these options contracts do not differ substantially from the well known options contracts on common stock except that the underlying asset is a futures contract the received theory of the valuation of these options suggests that such contracts provide a direct vehicle for investors to alter the terminal payoffs on their portfolios to a desired distribution in the absence of these contracts investors would be forced to pursue a dynamic portfolio policy at the expense of considerable transactions in order to achieve a similar distribution indeed the availability of put options on the futures contracts on stock market indexes now enables well diversified investors to purchase portfolio insurance in his seminal work black 1 provided a complete description of forward and futures contracts as well as the description and valuation of european options on forward contracts and on spot commodities breeden 3 has examined the use of commodity options in a theoretical framework and courtadon 6 has studied the valuation of options on treasury bond futures french 13 cox