rational versus adaptive expectations in present value models using data on stock price and dividends and on long term and short term interest rates we test an important implication of present value models that current value is a linear function of the conditional expectations of the next period value and the current determining variable this implication combined with rational expectations re is strongly rejected combined with adaptive expectations ae it is accepted the latter model can also explain the observed negative relation between the rate of return and stock price thus the re assumption should be used with caution the ae assumption may be useful in econometric practice

relational goods and participation incorporating sociability into a theory of rational action theoretical explanations of why rational individuals would participate in politics remain unsatisfactory this paper addresses the problem by developing and analyzing models which include among citizens payoffs relational goods objectives which depend upon interactions among persons the models predict more participation than do the standard approaches for example under some circumstances persons will be more likely to act if they believe others will act contrary to free rider logic more importantly conditions are identified under which leaders could increase mass activity thus a model is provided of mobilization in terms of the preferences and decisions of a rational individual

explaining fashion cycles imitators chasing innovators in product space abstract this paper considers the problem of a fashion trend setter confronting an imitator who can produce the same product at lower cost a one dimensional product space is considered which is an abstraction of the key attribute of some consumer good three broad strategies can be optimal for the fashion leader 1 never innovate which milk profits from the initially advantageous position but ultimately concede the market without a fight 2 innovate once but only once which just temporarily defers conceding the market 3 cycle infinitely around product space never letting the imitator catch up and capture the market sometimes the cycles start immediately sometimes the innovator should wait for a time before beginning the cycles the optimal solution exhibits strong state dependency with so called skiba curves separating regions in state space where various of these strategies are optimal there are even instances of intersecting skiba curves in most cases analytical expressions can be stated that characterize these skiba curves

pattern based expectations international experimental evidence and applications in financial economics abstract we study how subjects extrapolate simple patterns in financial time series in order to develop a descriptive model of actual agent behavior the laboratory experiment for this analysis was conducted in germany and japan statistical analyses indicate considerable similarity in expectations formation across cultures and document that agents expectations are at variance with the notion of standard trend extrapolation the paper then proposes a method for computing expectations for any economic time series based on the experimental data such pattern based expectations are shown to explain stock prices and the dynamics of the forward discount on the foreign exchange market

spurious rejections by cointegration tests induced by structural breaks the effects on three cointegration tests are examined when the series analysed are independent integrated processes each with a structural break although there are differences in detail among the tests the results indicate in all cases that when structural breaks are neglected in the analysis spurious rejections indicating the presence of cointegration can occur

oil prices the role of refinery utilization futures markets and non linearities we test the hypothesis that real oil prices are determined in part by refinery capacity non linearities in supply conditions and or expectations and that observed changes in these variables can account for the rise in prices between 2004 and 2006 results indicate that the refining sector plays an important role in the recent price increase but not in the way described by many analysts the relationship is negative such that higher refinery utilization rates reduce crude oil prices this effect is associated with shifts in the production of heavy and light grades of crude oil and price spreads between them non linear relationships between opec capacity and oil prices as well as conditions on the futures markets also account for changes in real oil prices together these factors allow the model to generate a one step ahead out of sample forecast that performs as well as forecasts implied by far month contracts on the new york mercantile exchange and is able to account for much of the 27 rise in crude oil prices between 2004 and 2006

competitive price and quality under asymmetric information we present an analysis of equilibrium in markets with asymmetrically informed consumers some consumers know both price and quality of all sellers whereas others know neither but may search among sellers the equilibrium correlation between price and quality generally increases with the level of information in the market and can be negative when this level is sufficiently small a meta analysis of the available empirical studies strongly supports the model s predictions

a test of the opec cartel hypothesis 1974 1983 this paper tests whether the higher oil prices fo the last decade could have been the result of producer collusion we find little evidence that opec influenced oil prices during the years of skyrocketing prices 1974 1980 but there is evidence that it did so during the recent years of softening prices 1981 1983

high and declining prices signal product quality high and declining prices signal a high quality product high prices are the efficient means of signaling because the consequent loss of sales volume is most damaging for lower cost lower quality products as time passes and the number of informed consumers increases the signaling distortion lessens resulting in a declining price profile the prediction of high and declining prices is robust across a variety of dynamic models and is consistent with recent empirical findings copyright 1991 by american economic association

the non linear impact of oil price on the oil demand a panel smooth transition regression model was adopted to analyse the non linear impact of oil prices on oil demand data for 42 countries was obtained from the international energy agency for the

waves in consumption with interdependence among consumers this paper presents a model to analyze the development of consumption patterns when there are social interactions among consumers in particular a consumer in this model recognizes three reference groups a peer group of similar consumers with whom the consumer wishes to share consumption activities a distinction group from which the consumer wishes to distinguish him or herself and an aspiration group to which the consumer does not belong but wishes that he she did and with whom the consumer would like to share consumption activities the interplay of aspiration and distinction can lead to waves in consumption these can happen when for example the avant garde consumption of up market pioneers is copied by other types of consumer as the latter aspire to emulate the former the former in turn seek to distinguish themselves from these unwelcome companions by varying their consumption in consequence a particular consumption activity may start up market an then gradually proceed down the social spectrum more complex patterns with continuing cycles in consumption can also be found the paper argues that this model is not only applicable to the consumption behaviour of an elite or would be elite but is relevant in a wide range of consumption settings

impact of speculator s expectations of returns and time scales of investment on crude oil price behaviors abstract based on time series of crude oil prices daily spot this paper analyses price fluctuation with two significant parameters speculators time scales of investment and e speculators expectations of return by using zipf analysis technique specifically by mapping returns of prices into 3 alphabeted sequences absolute frequencies and 2 alphabeted sequences relative frequencies containing the fundamental information of price fluctuations this paper empirically explores parameters and identifies various types of speculators cognition patterns of price behavior in order to quantify the degree of distortion a feasible reference is proposed an ideal speculator finally this paper discusses the similarities and differences between those cognition patterns of speculators and those of an ideal speculator the resultant analyses identify the possible distortion of price behaviors by their patterns

advertising in competitive markets in this paper small firms sell a homogeneous good to small consumers under conditions of free entry but consumers receive price information only through firms advertising in equilibrium every firm on the continuous price distribution buys less advertising than is socially optimal the result is robust if firms advertise in just one medium if readers of different advertising media are positively correlated excess advertising can occur in media used exclusively to advertise discount prices copyright 1991 by american economic association

does china factor matter an econometric analysis of international crude oil prices abstract whether china s crude oil imports are the culprit of oil price volatility these years has not been quantitatively confirmed therefore this paper empirically investigates the role of china s crude oil net imports in brent price changes from october 2005 to november 2013 based on an econometric analysis the results indicate that during the sample period china s crude oil imports do not significantly affect brent price changes no matter in the long run or short run therefore the blame for china s crude oil imports to cause the dramatic fluctuations of international oil price has no solid evidence also there exists significant uni directional causality running from the brent price to china s crude oil imports at the 5 level besides the response of the brent price to china s crude oil imports is found positive but slight and the brent price responds more significantly to us dollar exchange rate and oecd commercial inventory than to china s crude oil imports in the short run finally the contribution of china s crude oil imports to brent price movement is about 10 which is less than that of us dollar exchange rate but larger than that of indian crude oil imports or oecd commercial inventory

can foreign direct investment harness energy consumption in china a time series investigation abstract this study assesses the long run relationship and short run dynamics between foreign direct investment fdi and energy consumption in china applying the bounds testing approach to annual data from 1982 to 2012 we find that a stable fdi energy nexus exists in the long run and a 1 increase in fdi reduces energy consumption by 0 21 however this study shows a positive association between fdi and energy consumption in the short run attributing to the dominance of the scale effect our results remain robust to different measurements and estimators it is suggested that the chinese government shall support the inward fdi in the tertiary and energy sectors and strengthen local absorptive capacities to fully internalize fdi related knowledge spillovers in energy conservation

social context and the utility of wealth addressing the markowitz challenge abstract paradoxically there is a demand for both risk and insurance markowitz markowitz h 1952 the utility of wealth journal of political economy 60 151 158 laid the foundation for an explanation to this paradox markowitz challenged future researchers to build upon his foundation an operational specification of the taste for wealth this paper addresses the markowitz challenge by building social context variables into his model of individual utility verifiable implications about gambling insuring and peer selection are derived from the augmented markowitz utility function

optimal pricing of a conspicuous product during a recession that freezes capital markets abstract this paper considers the problem of how to price a conspicuous product when the economy is in a recession that disrupts capital markets a conspicuous product in this context is a luxury good for which demand is increasing in brand image brand image here means the ability of a consumer to impress observers by conspicuously displaying consumption of the good brand image is built up when the good is priced high enough to make it exclusive and eroded if the good is discounted recession is modeled as having two effects it reduces demand and it freezes capital markets so borrowing is not possible in pricing the conspicuous product the firm faces the following trade off reducing price helps maintain sales volume and cash flow in the face of reduced demand but it also damages brand image and thus long term demand the paper analyzes the firm s pricing policy facing scenarios of mild intermediate and severe recessions while taking the threat of bankruptcy into account for an intermediate recession the optimal solution is history dependent the results have implications for policy interventions in capital markets and for timing of mergers and acquisitions

determinants of china s energy imports an empirical analysis sustained economic growth in china has triggered a surge of energy imports especially oil imports this paper investigates the determinants of china s energy import demand by using cointegraiton and vecm techniques the findings suggest that in the long run growth of industrial production and expansion of transport sectors affect china s oil imports while domestic energy output has a substitution effect thus as the chinese economy industrializes and the automotive sector expands china s oil imports are likely to increase though china s domestic oil production has a substitution effect on imports its growth is limited due to scarce domestic reserve and high exploration costs it is anticipated that china will be more dependent on overseas oil supply regardless of the world oil price

toward an economic theory of fashion strong as is the desire for variety it is weak compared with the desire for distinction a feeling which if we consider its universality and its constancy that it affects all men at all times that it comes with us from the cradle and never leaves us until we go to the grave may be pronounced to be the most powerful of human passions nassau senior 1 with the greater part of rich people the chief enjoyment of riches consists in the parade of riches which in their eyes is never so complete as when they appear to possess those decisive marks of opulence which nobody can possess but themselves adam smith 2 i introduction positively sloped demand curves are used in marketing textbooks to explain the pricing of fashion merchandise 3 snob or prestige effects are alluded to in support of the claim that price increases can lead to an increase in the quantity demanded in the tenth edition of their text e jerome mccarthy and william d perreault 1990 offer a demand curve with a positively sloped segment they explain prestige pricing is setting a rather high price to suggest high quality or high status some target customers want the best so they will buy at a high price but if the price seems cheap they worry about quality and don t buy p 506 footnote omitted emphasis in the original in another text ralph m gaedeke and dennis tootelian 1983 also discuss a positively sloped demand curve some products do not have the traditional downward sloping demand curve previously described but a more curved slope illustrated in exhibit 13 6 demand curve with upward sloping portion not shown this reflects the real impact of price as a part of the product s value quite obviously as a product s price rises above p sub 0 demand will begin to drop as some consumers will simply be unable to afford the product however that decline is rather slow until very high prices are reached but demand also begins to drop at prices below p sub 0 showing that part of the reason for owning the product lies in its high price it has prestige value economists react by asserting that marketing explanations are ad hoc devoid of economic content conversely marketers say that economic models are naive and incapable of explaining the marketing of fashion goods as economists we have a bias towards economic explanations but these explanations are incomplete and not highly valued by the market in stark contrast the advice of professional marketers that economists contend is muddled or worse is amply rewarded in consulting work is there a market failure in the consulting market or does marketing provide an insight that economics lacks we start with the premise that the intuition behind marketing explanations that people desire prestige has validity this notion can be incorporated into economic theory using kelvin lancaster s 1971 notion that when a purchase is made what is bought is a bundle of services or characteristics the salient feature of a fashion good is its ability to confer prestige or status 4 the argument is straightforward there is a sociobiological basis for status seeking behavior status seeking is an evolved trait that is innate to humans as well as to many other animals given the pervasiveness of status seeking human cultures have developed effective signals of status fashion being just one we incorporate the status yielding nature of fashion goods into a standard demand model by assuming that the value consumers attach to a fashion good depends on the stock held by other consumers this interdependency among consumers allows us to explain the upward sloping constructs labeled demand curves that populate marketing texts our model has downward sloping demand curves throughout but because of the interdependencies generates cyclical price behavior that can be misconstrued as aberrant positively sloped demand functions

opec announcements and their effects on crude oil prices we investigate evidence on the effects of opec announcements on world oil prices by examining announcements from both official conferences and ministerial meetings on major international crudes including the key benchmarks and several other heavy and light grades with data from 1982 to 2008 we use event study methodology and find differentiation in the magnitude and significance of market responses to opec quota decisions under different price bands we also find some weak evidence of differentiation between light and heavy crude grades

do emerging markets matter in the world oil pricing system evidence of imported crude by china and india abstract this paper provides empirical evidence on the changing structure of world oil price system by identifying an additional driver emerging market factor we choose china and india as a representative of emerging markets to examine if the quantity of crude oil imported by china and india is significant in the existing oil pricing system kaufmann et al 2004 our data starts from january 2002 and ends in march 2010 which includes the oil shock of 2007 2008 we utilize cointegration and error correction model framework developed by engle granger 1987 and gregory hansen 1996 in the analysis our results indicate that demand from emerging markets has become a significant factor in the world oil pricing system since 2003 this result is significant as it lends empirical support to the widely held conjecture that the oil shock of 2007 2008 is a demand led shock hamilton 2009 our result also has significant policy implications that go beyond the oil shock the emerging market factor is there to stay and reflects the changing power between emerging and developed economies in the world economic system as a result of decades of fast economic development in the former it will certainly influence policy issues related to oil and beyond

opec behavior a test of alternative hypotheses since interpretations of past and future oil price patterns depends on the model chosen the author tests and compares alternative theories of opec as a first step in validating the choice on any one model the results show that among opec countries the partial market sharing cartel model is the only model not rejected by at least some of the 11 members and gives the best explanation of production in comparison with 11 non opec countries the competitive model could not be rejected for 10 of the 11 non opec producers this raises the question of why if opec is a cartel friedman s predictions have not come true and introduces new questions for future research 19 references 3 tables

promotions and product pricing parsimony versus veblenesque demand the veracity of the parsimonious law of demand has long been challenged by analyses of the veblen effect and prestige pricing backward bending demand curves often attend discussions of conspicuous consumption probing the sociological and psychological intricacies of potential consumer interdependencies scholars in economics and marketing have overlooked mundane product promotions for a monopolistic firm we formalize the relationship between the optimal price quantity combination and the thoroughness of product promotions iterating toward the profit maximizing thoroughness of product promotion gives rise to a backward bending price quantity locus challenges to the law of demand that ignore product promotions are thereby undercut

china on the move oil price explosion abstract rapid expansion of highway and jet traffic in china has created a surge of demand for oil products putting pressure on world energy markets and petroleum product prices this paper examines trends in freight and passenger traffic to assess how growth in china s transport demand relates to growth in china s economy as well as the energy intensity of transport based on assumptions about demand elasticity and energy intensity a range of scenarios is developed for china s oil demand through 2020 incremental oil demand from china s transport sector is then compared with world oil demand projections to assess the likely impact on world oil prices the finding is that new demand from china s transport sector would likely raise world oil prices in 2020 by 1 3 in reference scenarios or by 3 10 if oil supply investment is constrained

oil prices speculation and fundamentals interpreting causal relations among spot and futures prices abstract a consensus that the world oil market is unified begs the question where do innovations in oil prices enter the market here we investigate where changes in the price of crude oil originate and how they spread by examining causal relationships among prices for crude oils from north america europe africa and the middle east on both spot and futures markets results indicate that innovations first appear in spot prices for dubai fateh and spread to other spot and futures prices while other innovations first appear in the far month contract for west texas intermediate and spread to other exchanges and contracts links between spot and futures markets are relatively weak and this may have allowed the long run relationship between spot and future prices to change after september 2004 together these results suggest that market fundamentals initiated a long term increase in oil prices that was exacerbated by speculators who recognized an increase in the probability that oil prices would rise over time

capital stock management during a recession that freezes credit markets abstract this paper considers the problem of how to price a conspicuous product while maintaining liquidity during a recession which both reduces demand and freezes credit markets reducing price would help maintain cash flow but low prices can erode brand image and hence long term sales the paper extends earlier work of the same authors by explicitly deriving a firm s optimal cash management behavior taking into account that a too low cash level results in bankruptcy there are different sets of initial conditions for which qualitatively different solution trajectories are optimal we distinguish mild and severe recessions with mild recessions bankruptcy can be avoided for sure when the brand image is large enough in case the recession is of intermediate strength it can be optimal to throttle forward then back how aggressively one spends down cash reserves with the associated state constraint alternately being non binding binding non binding then binding in such a way that the firm ceases operation

price and advertising signals of product quality we present a signaling model based on ideas of phillip nelson in which both the introductory price and the level of directly uninformative advertising or other dissipative marketing expenditures are choice variables and may be used as signals for the initially unobservable quality of a newly introduced experience good repeat purchases play a crucial role in our model a second focus of the paper is on illustrating an approach to refining the set of equilibria in signalling games with multiple potential signals

spillover effects in energy futures markets price discovery in crude oil and refined oil products has been extensively undertaken in organised futures markets for over a decade now there are two dominant such markets today the first one in the new york mercantile exchange and the second in london s international petroleum exchange with the demise of opec as the leading price setter for crude and products nymex light sweet crude and brent crude have usurped the role of benchmark grades for price setting to date considerable work has been done to scrutinise the degree to which these two markets price efficiently but little with regard to the way the two markets interact participants in these markets move with relative ease from one market to the other and usually take positions in both of them it is of interest therefore to investigate the information transmission mechanism by looking at spillover effects and perhaps identify which market is the true price leader this paper is a first attempt to look at such a problem in the energy market although similar studies have been done on stock market indices it is found that substantial spillover effects do exist when both markets are trading simultaneously although ipe morning prices seem to be considerably affected by the close of the previous day on nymex q 2001 elsevier science b v all rights reserved

social status entry and predation the case of british shipping cartels 1879 1929 the authors incorporate social status and regional affiliation two variables of central sociological interest into an economic analysis of entry and predation they build on scott morton s 1997 examination of entry and predation in the merchant shipping industry and examine whether the social status of an entrant owner impacts on the predation behavior of the incumbent cartels they find that high social status entrants are significantly less likely 40 to be preyed upon than the low social status entrants they discuss several interpretations of this result subsequent analysis supports the hypothesis that cartel members use social status as an indicator of an entrant s propensity to be a cooperative cartel participant

a bandwagon effect in personalized license plates a bandwagon effect in personalized license plates the bandwagon effect is a consumption externality that exists when an individual s demand for a good is increased by his observation of other consumers using that good this paper models a product demand curve with a bandwagon effect and using data on sales of personalized license plates estimates such a demand curve certain more conventional models of product demand including information diffusion and habit formation models are observationally similar to the bandwagon model despite being conceptually different from it i attempt to use the license plate data to discriminate between the bandwagon model and these other models in 1950 harvey leibenstein described the impact on product demand curves of what he called a bandwagon effect the bandwagon effect was said to exist if peoples valuations of a good and thus demand for that good increased when they observed others consuming the good no one to my knowledge has attempted to empirically verify the existence of or estimate the magnitude of a bandwagon effect in any product market in this paper i attempt to do both by looking at the demand for personalized license plates a good that could plausibly be subject to a bandwagon effect in the first section of the paper i develop a simple model of product demand in the presence of a bandwagon effect the model is based on leibenstein s treatment but is modified to fit the case of personalized license plates in the second section data on the sales of personalized plates are described and used to estimate a demand function the results of this estimation are consistent with the theoretical model of the bandwagon effect the search for the bandwagon effect cannot end there however the bandwagon model in which consumers are moved by considerations of fashion and status emulation is observationally similar to other well known but conceptually quite different models of product demand in which consumers are more sober and level headed in particular models of information diffusion or habit formation imply patterns in the data very much like those that follow from the bandwagon model section iii discusses this matter in more detail and presents statistical tests designed to differentiate between the bandwagon model and alternative models of product demand in the final section i draw some conclusions from the empirical evidence i the bandwagon effect consider a product that lasts for a single period of well defined length each period a consumer may purchase at most one of the product the personalized license plate is a product of this sort as are subscriptions to a particular magazine hairstyles club memberships vacations to chic resorts etc assume first that there is no bandwagon effect and let 1 v sub it x sub it z sub t represent the value of the product to individual i in period t where x sub it is a vector of individual characteristics such as age or income and z sub t is a vector of product characteristics in period t the function v sub it is a random variable defined over the population of potential buyers let f sub t v prob v sub it adding a bandwagon effect to this model involves allowing individuals preferences to depend on aggregate behavior liebenstein assumed that in the presence of a bandwagon effect the quantity of a product demanded by each consumer at a given price depended on market level demand at that price this creates a problem when moving from individual to market level demand functions for the market level demand curve is no longer a lateral summation of individual demand curves