demand for money in open economies abstract the demand for real cash balances deduced from an underlying portfolio model of the financial market is shown to depend upon domestic variables and foreign monetary developments the model is estimated using quarterly postwar data for canada germany uk and us there is clear evidence that demand for money is affected not only by changes in domestic variables such as permanent income domestic interest rate and price expectations but also by fluctuations in exchange rate expectations and foreign interest rates the conclusion that domestic monetary policy is fairly ineffective and domestic financial markets are highly vulnerable to changes in foreign financial and monetary developments need to be modified in light of the results presented in this paper

indirect currency substitution a structural approach abstract previous empirical tests of mckinnon s indirect currency substitution ics hypothesis based on macro reduced form models yield ambiguous results because evidence cannot discriminate ics from competing non monetary models this note suggests a structural model based on the money demand function preliminary evidence supports mckinnon s hypothesis for the federal republic of germany switzerland canada and the netherlands but not for the u s

levelling the playing field the influence of national wind power planning instruments on conflicts of interests in a swedish county slow and complicated wind power planning and permitting procedures have been a large obstacle for wind power diffusion in sweden and other countries this paper complements previous siting oriented literature with a planning perspective on these problems the focus is two national planning instruments implemented in sweden in the early 2000s a national planning target and an appointment of areas of national interest for wind power the paper identifies different types of conflicts of interest related to wind power in addition to the conflict between wind power as a national public interest and various local private interests and analyses the impact of the national planning instruments on the handling of these conflicts in the land use planning process in the county of ostergotland the analysis shows that the planning target actually made local planning officials even more inclined to treat wind power as a private rather than a public interest and that the method used to identify areas of national interest of wind power forced wind power to compete with the combined strengths of all other public interest the planning instruments thus left wind power to fight an uphill battle rather than to meet other interests face to face on a level playing field

global liquidity through the lens of monetary aggregates this paper examines how the financial activities of non financial corporations nfcs in international markets potentially affects domestic monetary aggregates and financial conditions monetary aggregates reflect in part the activities of nfcs who channel capital market financing into the domestic banking system thereby influencing funding conditions and credit availability periods of capital inflows are also those when the domestic currency is appreciating and such periods of rapid exchange rate appreciation coincide with increases in the central bank s foreign exchange reserves increasing the stock of narrow money the paper examines economic significance of cross country panel data on monetary aggregates and other measures of non core bank liabilities non core liabilities that reflect the activities of nfcs reflect broad credit conditions and predict global trade and growth

modelling money demand in open economies over the modern floating rate period the role of open economy factors in influencing domestic money demand in major industrial countries over the modern floating rate period is examined the theoretial model for the empirical analysis is derived from a general two country portfolio balance framework that determines the demand for domestic and foreign monetary and non monetary assets in each country the ecm estimates indicate that capital mobility plays an important role in the money demand function in all seven counteries considered currency substitution in contrast is not an important phenomenon

doubts about the mckinnon standard f or over ten years ronald mckinnon has advocated a new monetary system centered on fixed exchange rates between the japanese yen the german mark and the u s dollar unperturbed by the collapse of the fixed exchange rate system in 1971 73 mckinnon was already arguing in 1974 for new monetary arrangements based on rigidly fixed rates but built on stronger foundations world monetarism rather than national monetary discretion mckinnon 1974 since then he has refined his plan for monetary integration under rigidly fixed exchange rates a gold standard without gold as he recently called it mckinnon 1987b his proposal has fallen on fertile soil because the dramatic volatility in exchange rates makes the financial press and the business community grasp for ready answers mckinnon s scheme seems to solve the problem of currency instability and to judge from his presentation there are only merits and not one shortcoming in fact however there is little theoretical or empirical basis for his standard to support this criticism i will summarize first several of mckinnon s key propositions and prescriptions and then review these in a critical spirit proposition 1 the belief that real exchange rates affect the current account is a false doctrine real expenditure changes triggered by exchange rate movements offset gains in competitiveness current account imbalances should be adjusted by fiscal policies not real exchange rates proposition 2 fixed exchange rates are superior to flexible exchange rates as a means of adjusting to real disturbances and to achieve price stability

a multicountry characterization of the nonstationarity of aggregate output the authors compute the scaled varlogram the variances of kth differences scaled by the variance of first differences of the log of annual per capita real aggregate output gdp or gnp as measured by 1 the long series for the united states and united kingdom 2 angus maddison s 1982 long series for twelve countries and 3 the postwar ifs data for thirty two countries simulations show that the scaled varlogram of real output is nearly always more consistent with the data being generated by parsimonious difference stationary than trend stationary univariate processes in fact the data reveal some excess nonstationarity relative to parsimonious arima models the power of the scaled varlogram to discriminate between trend stationary and difference stationary processes is somewhat greater than that of a dickey fuller type f test copyright 1990 by ohio state university press

the transactions demand for money in a two currency economy abstract in this paper the model of the transactions demand for money of baumol 1952 is extended to an economy where transactions are conducted in two currencies the currency substitution hypothesis that the domestic demand for domestic money depends on the expected rate of depreciation as well as the domestic rate of interest and level of income is derived from the model in addition several new insights into the implications of currency substitution are provided

nutrients impacts and determinants understanding the determinants of nutrient intake and the influence of nutrition on performance is critical in designing policies to alleviate hunger and malnutrition a series of studies undertaken by the authors which are synthesized here analyzes the influence of prices income and women s schooling on the nutrient intake of those in developing countries and the effect of nutrition on health productivity wages and fertility these studies suggest that the impact of food price increases may be strong particularly among those with the lowest incomes that the growth of income may be less likely to improve nutrient intake than has been suggested by others and that womzen s schooling is important in improving nutrition these studies also indicate that nutrition exerts a positive influence on wages productivity and fertility our limited knowledge of the role and determinants of nutrition is reflected in the finding of unduly strong effects of seasonalitv on price nutrition relations and the lack of a direct association between nutrition and health the nutrition of poor populations is of substantial interest because of the widespread and plausible presumption that better nutrition improves the welfare of individuals in such populations nutrition also is of interest because of the common conjecture that better nutrition improves productivity a series of our studies have analyzed the relations between nutrition and health labor productivity and fertility and the relations between prices income women s schooling and nutrition intake here we synthesize the results of these studies and address some of the puzzles and policy implications that have arisen

variability of the japanese money stock links to the u s and the october 1979 policy change abstract mckinnon s currency substitution model predicts that variable u s money growth causes greater variability of foreign money growth contrary to this thesis the variability of japan s monetary targets is found to be inversely related to the variability of u s m1

determinants of child mortality health and nutrition in a developing country abstract child health and nutrition status are important determinants of adult productivities and earnings and thus are an important channel of intergenerational socioeconomic mobility building upon economic models of household behavior we investigate the determinants of child mortality and health and nutrition status in regions defined by the degree of urbanization in the developing country of nicaragua and offer some policy suggestions our estimates suggest that determinants differ significantly across regions income is not an important factor there is an inverse relation with number of siblings and there are positive associations with calorie intake schooling except in the relatively low income rural areas the availability of refrigeration and the quality of sewage systems

currency substitution financial innovations and money demand a note this note presents some finnish evidence on the importance of currency substitution and financial innovations for money demand it is also shown that conventional demend for money specifications which do not take these factors into account are clearly misspecified and produced unreasonable results the problem is particularly acute for narrow concepts of money

agricultural household models extensions applications and policy this book presents the basic model of an agricultural household that underlies most of the case studies undertaken so far the model assumes that households are price takers and is therefore recursive the decisions modeled include those affecting production and the demand for inputs and those affecting consumption and the supply of labor comparative results on selected elasticities are presented for a number of economies the empirical significance of the approach is demonstrated in a comparison of models that treat production and consumption decisions separately and those in which the decisionmaking process is recursive the book summarizes the implications of agricultural pricing policy for the welfare of farm households marketed surplus the demand for nonagricultural goods and services the rural labor market budget revenues and foreign exchange earnings in addition it is shown that the basic model can be extended in order to explore the effects of government policy on crop composition nutritional status health saving and investment and to provide a more comprehensive analysis of the effects on budget revenues and foreign exchange earnings methodological topics primarily the data requirements of the basic model and its extensions along with aggregation market interaction uncertainty and market imperfections are discussed the most important methodological issues the question of the recursive property of these models is also discussed

wind power an assault on local landscapes or an opportunity for modernization abstract wind power development has produced controversies in many places some people see wind power as a sustainable source of energy others see it as destroying nature and landscapes the opposition to wind power is often asserted to be from local forces and nimbyism and support to be based on the national and global benefits of increased supply of renewable energy in this paper i challenge this view by analyzing how local communities with established or planned wind power parks went through the process of developing wind power what arguments they used and how they think about the wind power technology and its expected local effects i found that most of the arguments in favor of wind power development addressed local concerns regarding the economy modernization and employment opportunities and not a need for sustainable energy the opposition to wind power development was not based on nimbyism rather many different arguments were used and the features of the controversies were distinct to each community

determinants of international trade flows this paper models and estimates import demand and demand for export functions for 19 industrial countries although primary emphasis is placed on the period of generalized floating exchange rates 1972 through 1980 estimates are also provided for the fixed exchange rate years 1957 1970 thus making possible a comparison between the two eras aside from the conventional income and price variables the paper assesses the effect of variations in the exchange rate and in the expected exchange rate on real trade flows additionally it estimates an unrestricted lag structure of the effect of price and exchange rate variations on imports

the variability of inflation a new approach and some new empirical evidence abstract this note tests the variability of inflation using a new simple approach and pooled cross country oecd data 1960 1980 the estimated equation reported shows that the variability of inflation depends upon the variability of money supply over time

economic reforms and long run money demand in china implications for monetary policy although money demand equations have been estimated for many western countries only recently have researchers investigated the demand for money in centrally planned economies like china chow 7 who helped pioneer the analysis of chinese macro data estimates a simple money demand function derived from the quantity theory using annual data from 1952 through 1983 he concludes that the quantity theory provides a reasonable first approximation in explaining the demand for money in china 7 325 portes and santorum 27 use real and nominal adjustment specifications and test for the homogeneity of money demand with respect to the price level and real income feltenstein and farhadian 11 estimate a money demand function based on cagan s 3 work and blejer et al 1 estimate an error correction model using data for only the 1980s both studies find that the demand for real balances is explained by real income and an opportunity cost measure

determinants of the intrahousehold allocation of food in the rural philippines this study shows that the opportunity cost of time for husbands and wives can affect the intrahousehold distribution of food in a developing country equations which explain the relative allocation of calories within households were estimated for husbands wives and children with data for the rural philippines the estimating equation is derivable from both a joint household utility function and a bargaining model because the same households were included in the four survey rounds the various observations for a given individual were averaged for each variable in the estimation procedure wages were estimated using the heckman approach

portfolio theory and currency substitution one of the major reasons friedman 1953 and johnson 1972 advocated flexible exchange rates was to eliminate supply side monetary substitutability which can incapacitate domestic monetary policy however contributors to the currency substitution literature including miles 1978 girton and roper 1981 and mckinnon 1982 have argued that when economic agents hold both domestic and foreign monies variations in foreign interest rates or expected future exchange rates can make domestic money demand functions unstable as economic agents shift resources in response to changes in prospective relative returns as a result they and others have claimed that flexible exchange rates may not secure domestic monetary autonomy l the major purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the conditions under which foreign and domestic monies are substitutes in demand when economic agents have motives to hold both and to contrast the determinants of currency substitutability with those of the more general concept of asset substitutability importantly it is demonstrated that the usual portfolio theoretic justification for including opportunity cost variables such as foreign interest rates foreign inflation rates or expected

portfolio behaviour in a flow of funds model for the household sector in india we estimate a flow of funds model for the household sector in india within the almost ideal demand system aids framework and examine the demand for money and the substitution effects between money and other financial assets the restricted long run model obtained using cointegration techniques provides stable equilibrium relationship between i 1 variables and broadly satisfies the axioms of rational choice in consumer demand theory we find that financial sector reform exerts a significant impact on the interest rate structure and household portfolio preferences specifically there is strong substitutability among risk free assets and a possible speculative effect in the stock market while the exchange rate strongly influences the demand for money these findings all have important policy implications

danish and norwegian wind industry the relationship between policy instruments innovation and diffusion this article compares the role of policy instruments in stimulating long term technological change in danish and norwegian wind industry it concludes that although predictability has periodically been low denmark s broad portfolio of policies and measures has been well adapted to the different stages in the development of its wind industry this has contributed to a high degree of innovation successful establishment in niche markets high degree of diffusion and establishment of domestic and international mass markets and in recent years an increasingly successful replacement of senescent technology with new the motivation of norway s wind energy policies and measures at least up until the late 1990s has been to increase power supply rather than to stimulate industrial development and technological change policies and measures have been weaker than in denmark have been less stable over time and stimulated the demand side much less they have not sufficiently covered the wind industry s perceived needs on different stages in the development of new technology and have not sufficiently stimulated continuous improvement learning and new product development dynamic efficiency in industry this has been part of the reason why there has been only a limited extent of innovation and diffusion of wind technology in norway

how well does the mundell fleming model fit australian data since the collapse of bretton woods australian time series for the nominal interest rate real output the nominal exchange rate prices and nominal money since 1973 are characterized by a vector autoregressive process driven by five exogenous disturbances those disturbances are identified so that they can be interpreted as the five main sources of fluctuations found in the mundell fleming model of a small open economy under flexible exchange rates namely world interest rate aggregate supply is money supply and money demand shocks the dynamic responses of the estimated model to the structural shocks are analysed and shown to match most of the predictions of the mundell fleming model

monetary integration and currency substitution in the ems the case for a european monetary aggregate abstract this paper examines the phenomenon of cross currency substitution and the validity of monetary aggregation within the european monetary system using non parametric methods which exploit the relationship between intergroup substitution and separability the separability property is tested using the methodology developed by varian the nonparametric approach to demand analysis econometrica 50 945 974 1982 nonparametric tests of consumer behaviour review of economic studies 51 99 110 1983 and is violated in the case of most european countries suggesting that the hypothesis of zero currency substitution which forms the basis of national monetary aggregation should be rejected the results do however validate the use of monetary aggregates for the ems as a whole and i use a standard parametric demand for money approach to compare the performance of an ems divisia index with that of simple sum aggregates during the 1980s and 1990s

stability of the money demand function in asian developing countries previous studies that estimated the money demand function in asian developing countries either employed traditional estimation techniques or recently popularized cointegration technique while the first group suffers from spurious regression problems the second group interpreted their finding of cointegration as a sign of stability of estimated parameters this study after incorporating the cusum and cusumsq tests into cointegration analysis shows that in some asian countries even though real m1 or m2 monetary aggregates are cointegrated with their determinants the estimated parameters are unstable

the financial structure and the demand for money in thailand this paper uses recently developed econometric techniques to investigate the demand for money in thailand initial estimates show the absence of any long term unique relationship among a monetary aggregate m1 or m2 an income and a price variable however the introduction of an exchange rate in the above relationship shows the presence of a cointegrating relationship this provides some support to mckinnon s hypothesis of currency substitution it also raises some concern about the closed economy focus of earlier studies on money demand in thailand addition of a foreign interest variable to the above models provide some support to the capital mobility hypothesis the long run elasticity estimates for the m1 equation raise some doubts about the desirability of using this monetary aggregate as an intermediate target by the bank of thailand the null hypothesis of a unit income elasticity and zero foreign interest elasticity are not rejected but the hypothesis of price homogeneity is rejected moreover

money inflation and untested common factors bairam s 1990 model of world inflation is reconsidered this model gives the surprising result that increases in the money supply act to decrease inflation rates i find that this result is due to the imposition of an untested and invalid common factor restriction this restriction is implicit in the generalized least squares gls transformation for autocorrelated regression residuals bairam s autocorrelated residuals appear to be caused by mis specified dynamics in a more correctly specified model money supply increases have the expected positive influence on inflation rates the prevalence of the gls transformation and the rarity of testing for implied common factor restrictions suggests that there may be other equally mis specified models existing in the literature

international currency substitution and the income velocity of money abstract this paper presents new empirical evidence on the degree to which international currency substitution destabilizes domestic money demand it also provides an explanation of some apparent discrepancies among previous empirical studies of currency substitution this explanation hinges on the distinction between the elasticity of currency substitution and the cross elasticity of money demand a large small value of one elasticity does not imply a large small value of the other a large cross elasticity is required for currency substitution to destabilize domestic money demand the empirical evidence presented here is consistent with the view that these cross elasticities are typically small

currency substitution in turkey although currency substitution is a widely observed phenomenon in both developed and developing counries most of the studies on currency substitutioin in small open economies have focused on high inflatin south american countries this paper extends the previous analysis to a newly industrializing high inflation economy namely turkey a vector autoregression model has beeb estimated employing the certain policy variables to investigate the dynamics of currency substitution in the economy dynamic impulse responses show that the residents have a preference for substitutiong foregn currencies for domestic currency because of reawl exchange rate depreciations the results suggest that to stop or to reverse the on going currency substition process a plicy aiming to increase the expected real return on domestic assets should be adopted

inside money and the open economy abstract this paper presents a theoretical model of a world economy with international capital mobility non substitutable national currencies and flexible exchange rates an essential feature of the model is that individuals face a non trivial choice between real assets intermediated through banks inside money and unbacked currency outside money real shocks affect the relative demand for inside as opposed to outside money the money multiplier and are transmitted internationally through capital markets thereby affecting money stocks price levels and output abroad the analysis provides a possible explanation for the pattern of comovements in money supplies inflation rates and output levels across countries

impact of macroeconomic policies upon agricultural trade and international agricultural development international commodity markets in the early 1980s have experienced a severe cyclical downturn high real rates of interest have discouraged stock holding and disinflation has caused asset market participants to shift out of commodities into financial assets this is only the most recent bout of turbulence since we passed from the stable bliss of the 1950s and 1960s the basic question is whether this instability results from a seemingly unending series of shocks or is there a more general basic explanation which transcends individual events

practices and imaginations of energy justice in transition a case study of the noordoostpolder the netherlands abstract renewable energy technologies are often idealized as environmentally innocent alternatives to fossil fuels fossil fuel extraction is often considered as unjust and renewable energy as the just alternative at the same time renewable energy projects such as wind parks are often resisted because of the uneven impacts of its infrastructure this paper analyses such ambiguous meanings of energy justice social justice issues related to energy along the lines of its three tenets distributional procedural and recognition justice aiming to understand how energy justice is constructed from below it does so on the basis of a case study in the noordoostpolder the netherlands where plans for extracting shale gas went together with both large scale and small scale renewable energy practices the paper analyses how energy justice is made by how people resist shale gas and engage in renewable energy practices and as such produce new imaginations and normativities of energy justice such an ethnographic approach helps to understand energy justice as a process of co construction of activists policy makers and scholars and as such responds to recent calls for a human centred approach to the study of energy transitions the paper is based on two and a half years of ethnographic fieldwork in the noordoostpolder

a demand systems analysis of food commodities by u s households segmented by income using the 1987 88 nationwide food consumption survey twelve food commodity groups were analyzed according to household poverty status parameter estimates were used to obtain subsistence expenditures own price elasticities expenditure elasticities and income elasticities own price elasticities were similar between the income groups for most commodities however income elasticities were consistently higher for the lower income group the use of average estimates of price and income elasticities for the population as a whole for the projection of individual commodity demands is not likely to be successful if notable changes are evident in income distribution

the effect of excessively elastic expectations on exchange rate volatility in the dornbusch overshooting model abstract bilson has described the empirical finding that the forward exchange rate overestimates the speed of return to equilibrium as a finding of excessive speculation and has drawn implications for the volatility of the exchange rate the present paper pursues this tack within the sticky price monetary model made famous by dornbusch it is shown theoretically that if the market overestimates the speed of adjustment the degree of overshooting is reduced in this sense excessive speculation leads to reduced volatility

the effect of the value of time on food consumption patterns in developing countries evidence from sri lanka this study shows that the opportunity cost of women s time can affect household food consumption patterns in developing countries demand equations for rice bread and the ratio of bread to total cereal consumption are estimated for urban sri lankan households the demand specification which is based on the new household economics includes as explanatory variables the woman s estimated market wage and the household s full income and alternatively observed income wages are estimated using the heckman procedure to correct for sample selection bias

the effects of foreign exchange risk and return on the demand for domestic balances abstract this paper provides an empirical evidence regarding the effects of foreign exchange risk and return on the demand for domestic balances unlike earlier studies which examine only one effect and thus may have been subjected to a misspecification problem this paper includes both foreign exchange risk and return as explanatory variables in the money demand equation the results lend limited support to the hypothesis that foreign exchange risk negatively affects money demand and strongly indicate that foreign exchange return has a negative effect on the demand for domestic balances thus currency substitution seems to be relevant not just in developed economies but in developing economies subject to foreign exchange controls as well

how stable is the demand for money in emerging economies one of the key elements of implementing the monetary policy is stability of the demand for money the literature includes a large number of studies that have tested the stability of the money demand in developed as well as less developed countries but not in emerging economies of eastern europe as market based data becomes available from these countries there is an urgency to test old theories for these modern market oriented economies in this article we consider the experiences of armenia bulgaria the czech republic hungary poland russia and the slovak republic using the bounds testing approach to error correction modelling and cointegration we show that money demand is stable in these countries

monetary and exchange rate policies for international financial stability a proposal w v ithout a common monetary standard the remarkable integration of western european north american and the industrialized asian economies in both commodity trade and financial flows is less efficient and becoming untenable dissatisfaction with wildly fluctuating relative currency values euphemistically called floating or flexible exchange rates is a prime cause of the resurgence in protectionism in 1986 87 the overvalued yen forced japanese industrialists to close factories retire workers and write off once valuable investments in plant and equipment this parallels what their american counterparts were forced to do between 1981 and 1985 when the dollar suddenly became overvalued similarly the paring down of the british manufacturing base was precipitated when the pound unexpectedly became a strong petrocurrency in 1979 81 in agriculture japan and european countries are determined to insulate their domestic prices of farm products from unsettling international influences including volatile fluctuations in the yen dollar or mark dollar exchange rates thus unless exchange stability is first achieved the american government s attempt to broaden the general agreement on tariffs and trade to encompass agriculture and services is likely to fail but what keeps the three major industrial blocs from developing a common monetary standard to prevent exchange rate fluctuations although many people

influences of international factors on us prices a theoretical and empirical analysis employing an open economy framework the present article argues that international forces would have important implications for us price behaviour even prior to the 1970s when the us international sector was relatively small a distributed lag price equation that declineates between domestic and foreign impulses is derived the model is estimated using quarterly data over the 1959 1979 period when international reserves as a measure of world liquidty were subject to relatively little noise the study finds that growths of us import prices and exports positively affected us price inflation over the entire sample period but not during pre 1971 period on the other hand while world liquidity measured by worldwide international reserves did not appear to influence us price for the whole period examined its effect is found to be positive over the fixed exchange rate era the mean lag of this foreign impulse is estimated at 6 quarters 2 quarters larger than that of domestic liquidity as measured by m1 th

money and inflation the case of western developed countries 1960 80 1990 money and inflation the case of western developed countries 1960 80 applied economics vol 22 no 7 pp 863 869

the international convergence of inflation rates during fixed and floating exchange rate regimes abstract according to the assets approach to the balance of payments exchange rate under a fixed exchange rate regime inflation must grow at the same rate in each of the participating countries at least in the long run the model implies that reserve currency inflation causes world inflation the mechanism by which inflation is transmitted when currencies are allowed to float is more complex the long run international convergence of inflation is studied using modern time series techniques on post war data from the g 7 countries the evidence on the convergence of inflation during the fixed regime portion of the sample is strong and consistent with the notion of reserve currency causality i e from the us to the rest of the world the evidence of convergence over the floating portion of the sample is also quite strong but no single currency can be characterized as the common underlying source of world inflation implying the inflation rates are endogenous

protecting capital from itself u s attempts to regulate the eurocurrency system in 1979 and 1980 the u s government attempted to regulate the eurocurrency system in order to stabilize the international monetary and financial systems and for u s domestic monetary purposes the conflict between the u s government especially the treasury department and the federal reserve board and u s based transnational banks tnbs illustrates tnbs contradictory interests which are neither self evident nor easily discernible even to tnbs themselves the state comes to play a mediating role vis a vis tnbs in an only partially successful attempt to transform contradictory interests into coherent policy resulting in conflict between the state and tnbs the origins of u s regulatory initiatives are rooted in multilateral attempts to supervise banks between 1974 and 1978 and the failure of such coordination during the 1978 dollar crisis from the conflict between u s officials and u s tnbs emerge varying concepts of tnbs interests after examining the reasons for the failure of the u s proposals i conclude by suggesting some implications of tnbs contradictory interests for statist and social conflict theories of the advanced capitalist state few theories of the state have adequately taken into account the complexity and contradictory interests of transnational capital

demand for money in thailand after a brief review of recent literature new estimates on a long run of annual observations of the thai demand for all the standard measures of money are presented the results demonstrate that the demand for real money balances is a stable function of a scale variable and a coherent measure of opportunity cost with all the properties predicted by economic theory

tests of different monetary aggregates for the monetary models of the exchange rate in five asean countries this study examines the usefulness of divisia money relative to simple sum money for exchange rate modelling in a period of rapid financial deregulation this comparison is conducted using the monetary model of the exchange rate in the long run modelling the divisia money is significantly superior to simple sum money in the case of malaysia and the philippines while indifferent for indonesia singapore and thailand

the transactions demand for money in the presence of currency substitution evidence from vietnam currency substitution the use of foreign money to finance transactions between domestic residents is widespread in low income and transition economies traditionally however empirical models of the demand for money tend to concentrate on the portfolio motive for holding foreign currency while maintaining the assumption that the income elasticity of demand for domestic money is invariant to the degree of currency substitution a simple re specification of the demand for money is offered which more accurately reflects the process of currency substitution by allowing for a variable income elasticity of demand for domestic money this specification is estimated for vietnam in the 1990s using a standard cointegration framework evidence is found for currency substitution only in the long run but well defined wealth effects operating in the short run

currency substitution and speculative attacks on a currency board system abstract a currency board arrangement cba is supposed to be robust against attacks currency substitution complicates life with controversial implications for floating versus fixed exchange rate regimes after reporting evidence of currency substitution in hong kong a monetary model incorporating currency substitution is used to estimate the shadow exchange rate and the probability of speculative attack on the hong kong dollar a decomposition analysis of a markov switching model indicates that the no attack regime was the most durable one this implies that hong kong s quasi cba was relatively robust against both speculative attacks and currency substitution

on the power of dickey fuller tests against fractional alternatives abstract we examine the properties of dickey fuller unit root tests under fractionally integrated alternatives and find that these tests have quite low power

money demand in the dominican republic this paper investigates a demand for money relationship for the dominican republic the financial system of the dominican republic is underdeveloped and there are no suitable domestic data on the opportunity cost of holding money economic links with the usa suggest a possible role for a foreign interest rate effect and a currency substitution effect in the demand for domestic money a long run demand for money relationship is developed from the perspective of alternative estimation methodologies and it is shown that a literature standard specification augmented by foreign monetary variables is robust the ensuing short run dynamic model is adequate stable and suggests an important role for expected inflation and a real bilateral exchange rate with the usa a number of policy implications for the dominican republic are drawn from the results

international monetary flows and stability in foreign exchange markets 1988 international monetary flows and stability in foreign exchange markets applied economics vol 20 no 5 pp 611 622

the rules of the game international money in historical perspective no world central bank issues a separate currency for commerce across national boundaries instead a system of national monies works more or less well in providing a medium of exchange and unit of account for current international transactions as well as a store of value and standard of deferred payment for longer term borrowing and lending how do national governments and banking institutions interact to provide international money for merchants and investors by necessity this monetary interaction changes with time place political circumstances and financial technology to better understand its historical evolution let us follow robert mundell and distinguish between a monetary system and a monetary order

currency substitution foreign inflation and terms of trade dynamics this paper incorporates rational expectations full price flexibility and currency substitution into the usual small economy model taking explicit account of inflation abroad not only will the steady state terms of trade be affected by an increase in the rate of monetary expansion when the inflation rate abroad is assumed to be nonzero but its dynamic path may also be different from the usual case in which inflation abroad is ignored it has been shown that if the import demands are relatively inelastic the terms of trade will undershoot their equilibrium value if the import demands are elastic the terms of trade will overshoot the key to these diametrically opposite results is the degree of ultimate deterioration in the terms of trade which in turn turn on the size of the two import demand elasticities

currency substitution and instability in the world dollar standard comment myron ross correctly points out in his comment that u s price inflation is better predicted by the american money supply mlus than by the broader ten country world money supply mlw over the whole statistical time series from 1960 to 1980 provided in mckinnon s 1982 article specifically he showed that american price inflation is more highly correlated with mlus lagged one or two years than with mlw similarly lagged however mckinnon s present tense assertion that in general growth in the world money supply is a better predictor of american price inflation than is american money growth applies only to the weak dollar standard of the 1970 s and early 1980 s as his preceding discussion intended but failed to indicate clearly only in this later period of volatile exchange rates and price level instability in the united states do alternative hard currencies such as the yen and deutsche mark become competitive as international stores of value and units of account hence international currency substitution associated with the ebb and flow of speculation against or for the dollar significantly destabilized the demand for mlus in the 1970 s and 1980 s and only in this later period might one expect the sum of these internationally substitutable monies ml to predict world and perhaps even american price inflation better than does mlus in contrast during the strong dollar standard of the 1950 s and 1960 s the dollar was unchallenged as international money exchange rates were by and large convincingly fixed speculation for or against the dollar was incapable of substantially altering u s interest rates or of directly affecting the demand for mlus because cyclical international influences did not then destabilize the demand for dollars mlus was by itself a fairly efficient predictor of american prices thus ross s statistical results for the period 1960 to 1980 show somewhat greater predictive strength in mlus compared to ml because the 1960 s data outweigh the dissimilar data of the 1970 s let us instead partition the sample of imf data around the year 1970 whence began the transition from fixed to fluctuating exchange rates and the maturation of alternative monetary systems in europe and japan after applying similar statistical correlation procedures to those used by ross we show a striking structural shift in the world s monetary system the explanatory power of mlw increases sharply as that of mlus declines moderately tan 1982 for the early period of 1960 to 1970 table 1 shows simple correlation coefficients between annual percentage changes in money supplies and changes in american and world wholesale price indices the mlus provides a good explanation of u s prices and of world prices one to two years hence whereas the broader definition of mlw in which mlus enters with a 50 percent weight does surprisingly poorly being insignificantly correlated with american or world prices apparently money growth in industrial countries other than the united states was not then an independent source of worldwide inflationary pressure during the strong dollar standard table 2 shows the same simple correlations between percentage changes in prices and money for the weak dollar standard of stanford university please note that a typographical error giving the last word in the original title as market appeared on the cover of the june 1982 issue of this review the title was correct in the table of contents and on the article

currency substitution under finance constraints the perfect foresight continuous time couterpart of lucas and stokey s cash in advance model is generalized to the case of two currencies the money demand function for eac currency has as arguments the endowments of goods associated with each denomination various monetary shocks are investigated including permanent and temporary changes in levels and growth rates it is shown that substitution can be an important factor in explaining the possible negative transmission of inflation the amount of volatility of exchange rates and the degree tp which exchange rate movements approximate a random walk

household production in the philippines a non neoclassical approach the starting point of any economic analysis is a microeconomic theory of the decision making unit by providing a set of explicit assumptions regarding individual choices a microeconomic theory lays the necessary foundation for the explanation of economic behavior just as a theory of the firm underlies analyses of market production a theory of the family underlies analyses of household production explanations of long run trends such as fertility decline grow out of assumptions regarding the nature of household decision making developing what they term the economic approach to human behavior gary becker and other neoclassical economists forcefully argue that household behavior is motivated primarily by a collective concern for economic efficiency they assume that households seek to maximize exogenously given joint utility functions and they hypothesize that differences in household behavior represent efficient responses to differences in the prices and incomes which households face this approach provides the foundation for an explanation of fertility decline based on long run changes in relative prices associated with economic development simply stated the argument runs as follows as the rate of return to human capital rises and levels of education increase the cost of rearing children goes up as higher wages draw women out of the household into the labor force the opportunity cost of mothers time goes up further increasing the cost of children the demand for children decreases and fertility levels gradually adjust 2 the assumption that joint utility functions are exogenous constant over time and vary randomly if at all across households is crucial to this argument systematic differences in unobservable joint utility functions could seriously confound the interpretation of observed relationships between changes in household behavior and changes in rela

nutrition health birth order and seasonality intrahousehold allocation among children in rural india abstract nutrients available to children are determined largely by intrahousehold allocations there are a number of reasons why birth order may affect these allocations a model is developed to estimate critical parameters of parental preferences regarding the allocation of nutrients among their children latent variable estimates for rural south india indicate that parental preferences have productivity equity tradeoffs and parents favor older children the productivity equity tradeoff however is much less for the lean season therefore when food is scarcest parents follow more closely a pure investment strategy exposing their more vulnerable children to greater malnutrition tisk

world money or domestic money which predicts us inflation best abstract in this paper i demonstrate that mckinnon and tan s result that world money outperforms us money in explaining us inflation is sensitive to their choice of price index when inflation is measured by the us cpi or gnp deflator us money outperforms world money in explaining us inflation

evaluating the empirical evidence for currency substitution a case study of the demand for sterling in europe currency substitution has important implications for the cost of european monetary union if it is significant it will help to reduce costs of convergence to a single currency this paper informs the policy debate by testing for its existence on a consistent european database making use of cointegration methods the results demonstrate that in the two types of models tested there is no clear evidence of currency substitution in either the short or the long run and that therefore currency substitution between sterling and ec currencies cannot be relied upon as a mechanism or an aid to reduce the costs of monetary convergence copyright 1994 by royal economic society

the impact of international factors on u s inflation an empirical test of the currency substitution hypothesis a common argument for flexible exchange rates is that they insulate the domestic economy from external monetary shocks consequently the domestic rate of inflation and income growth are related directly to the behavior of the domestic money supply the insular properties of a flexible exchange rate system have been challenged over the past few years by proponents of the theory of currency substitution advocates of currency substitution argue that the domestic demand for money is a function of the relative opportunity costs between domestic and foreign holdings of monetary assets failing to recognize these international influences yields a domestic money demand function that appears to be highly unstable consequently depending on the particular set of international forces affecting the domestic demand for money a given rate of domestic money growth can lead to a variety of rates of domestic inflation

currency substitution capital mobility and money demand abstract this paper re examines the currency substitution cs issue by specifying a general portfolio balance pb model where domestic residents demand for foreign money is distinguished from their demands for foreign non monetary assets the latter possibility which reflects international capital mobility as opposed to cs per se is already a key feature in the open economy macro literature the inclusion of foreign money leaves the usual asset demand functions unchanged in the pb model that ignores cs at least as far as the appropriate rate of return arguments and their signs are concerned although this suggests that cs is of limited importance in macro modelling it implication for the estimation of money demand functions is pursued an initial attempt is made to empirically isolate the separate efects of high capital mobility and currency substitution for canada germany the united kingdom and the united states the results while not conclusive due to high multicollinearity problems bring into question the empirical as well as the theoretical relevance of currency substitution

international influences on the u s economy summary of an exchange in currency substitution and instability in the world dollar standard 1982 ronald mckinnon hypothesized that shifts in international portfolio preferences for dollar assets including bonds destabilized the effective demand for money in the united states from the dollar depreciation of 1971 73 to the great dollar appreciation of 1981 83 these demand shifts were telegraphed by large changes in the dollar exchange rate against other hard currencies they signaled sudden inflation in the united states when the dollar was unexpectedly weak and deflation when the dollar became strong in addition mckinnon argued this ebb and flow in the demand for dollar assets provoked foreign central banks but not the u s federal reserve system to adjust their money growth rates to mitigate these exchange fluctuations consequently since 1970 annual percentage growth in world mi the sum of percentage growths in dollars marks yen sterling and so on fluctuated more than annual money growth in the united states the resulting international business cycle had a first order impact on american income and prices other than discussing some suggestive money and price data for ten industrial countries mckinnon provided no formal econometric testing of his theory this note summarizes an exchange between mckinnon and tan m t and radcliffe warga and willett r w w prompted by the latter s 1984 econometric test of mckinnon s hypothesis copies of the full exchange including new econometric work are available from the authors consider the single equation econometric technique of explaining u s prices or incomes by current or lagged changes in u s ml all authors agree that there was a significant deterioration in the fit of this basic monetary equation from the fixed exchange rate period of 1958 69 to the era of floating rates from 1972 to 1982 by itself american money growth now gives a less satisfactory explanation of cyclical fluctuations in nominal income or prices but how can changing international asset preferences be represented statistically in a mixed exchange rate regime of dirty floating one proxy variable is money growth in the rest of the industrial world mlrow mckinnon 1982 originally hypothesized that world money inclusive of mlrow has a stronger impact on american prices than u s money by itself but this conjecture turns out to be true only for american and world tradable goods prices as approximated by the wholesale price index wpi see mckinnon tan 1983 radcliffe warga and willett correctly pointed out that the influence of mlrow is not helpful in predicting changes in u s nominal gnp myles wallace 1983 showed that domestic price indices such as the american cpi or gnp deflator which have large nontradable components are not well explained by world money r w w s objection is important because monetary variables

currency substitution and nonlinear error correction in taiwan s demand for broad money we modify the conventional money demand function by including a real exchange rate variable to reflect the effect of currency substitution empirical evidence indicates that the variable is crucial to the long run stability of taiwan s money demand after finding the failure of a linear error correction model ecm in describing the dynamics of taiwan s money demand we apply a nonlinear ecm to examine its dynamics and support the appropriateness of the nonlinear model empirically

the mobilization of women s labor for cash crop production a game theoretic approach in the last decade or so economists have modeled phenomena such as household labor supply fertility behavior and child survival rates using the household as the unit of analysis this paper presents data that call into question the assumption that the household is a joint decision making unit which maximizes a neoclassical household utility function the data come from a study of the mobilization of women s labor by their husbands for irrigated rice production in north cameroon the first section of this paper describes briefly the massa rice and sorghum farming system and then considers the relationship between the amount of compensation women receive from their husbands for their labor on rice production and the amount of labor they allocate to rice production the findings suggest that a bargaining model may describe the intrahousehold relations of production and distribution better than the neoclassical model the second section specifies a nash bargaining model and contrasts it with the neoclassical model of the household using the bargaining framework the third section explores in more detail possible explanations of the allocative inefficiency which seems to characterize many of the rice cultivating households

household behaviour and nutrition in developing countries abstract this article reviews some of the recent major research findings concerning the effect of household behaviour on food consumption and nutrition important extensions to the understanding of household behaviour have been made in the areas of the impact of income and price changes agricultural households the effects of agricultural commercialization the new household economics and particularly the effect of time as a scarce economic resource the intrahousehold allocation of food and the determinants of nutritional status this knowledge is important because the response by households affects the final impact of economic changes and government actions on the nutritional status of the population

another visit to the cagan model of money demand the latest russian experience abstract this paper investigates empirically the cagan style money demand function for russia during the recent hyperinflation era 1992 1994 using the johansen multivariate cointegration test results indicate that rate of change of exchange rate currency depreciation is required in the demand function for real m2 and real currency in order to obtain a stationary long run relationship error correction model results show that there exists a bidirectional causality between real money balances and determinants of real money demand including currency depreciation exchange rate sensitivity of the demand for money indicates currency substitution

cointegration tests of a long run relation between money demand and the effective exchange rate abstract for the period starting with the floating of the us dollar we find evidence that long run stationarity of the demand function for m2 but not m1 requires inclusion of the effective exchange rate these results lend some support to mckinnon s hypothesis that nonstationarity in the demand for money can be resolved by inclusion of the exchange rate jel f41 e41

currency substitution and economic monetary aggregates abstract existing analyses of currency substitution rely on the assumption that domestic monetary assets are perfect substitutes for each other the present paper examines empirically the currency substitution hypothesis using divisia monetary aggregates which relax the perfect substitutability assumption used in earlier work the empirical results support the hypothesis of currency substitution for the united states

the demand for money in the united states evidence from cointegration tests this paper uses recent cointegration test procedures to investigate the underlying economic relationship between real money balances real income and interest rates for the united states unlike recent studies of money demand the authors analysis uses quarterly data spanning the period 1915 88 thus providing a sample encompassing a wide variety of economic experiences the evidence presented indicates that the broader m2 measure of money is the preferable measure with which to consider the long run effects of monetary policy copyright 1991 by ohio state university press

exchange rate sensitivity of demand for money and effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policies one of the arguments between proponents and opponents of floating exchange rates centres around the relative effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policy while proponents of floating rates argue that monetary policy is more effective under floating rates its opponents contend that fiscal policy is more effective under fixed rates however economic theory suggests that there is room for both policies under both types of exchange rate system depending upon degree of sterlization concentrating on the floating rates mundell 1963 has argued that the relative effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policies would also depend upon sensitivity of money demand to exchange rate more precisely he has conjectured that the demand for money is likely to depend upon the exchange rate in addition to the interest rate and the level of income this would slightly reduce the effectiveness of a given change in the quantity of money and slightly increase the effectiveness of fiscal policy on income and employment under

currency substitution and the precautionary demand for money abstract although the implications of currency substitution have received considerable attention recently the microeconomic foundations of this phenomenon seem largely to have been taken for granted the present paper considers the precautionary motive for holding cash balances as one possible motivation for the currency substitution hypothesis a three asset model is presented in which transaction costs are explicit and an agent is faced with uncertain cash requirements in two different currencies the role played by the expected rate of depreciation in the optimal portfolio allocation is found to conform with prior beliefs

commercialization of smallholder agriculture policy requirements for the malnourished poor abstract the nutritional impact of increased commercialization of smallholder agriculture in developing countries while generally positive may in certain circumstances be unfavourable adverse policies tend to be the problem in these circum stances the international food policy research institute has conducted re search to identify the key factors in this process and in march 1989 conducted a workshop in guatemala for researchers and policy makers this report summarizes the findings and policy recommendations that emerged

does livestock ownership affect animal source foods consumption and child nutritional status evidence from rural uganda in many developing countries consumption of animal source foods among the poor is still at a level where increasing its share in total caloric intake may have many positive nutritional benefits this paper explores whether ownership of various livestock species increases consumption of animal source foods and helps improve child nutritional status the paper finds some evidence that food consumption patterns and nutritional outcomes may be affected by livestock ownership in rural uganda the results are suggestive that promoting small livestock ownership has the potential to affect human nutrition in rural uganda but further research is needed to estimate more precisely the direction and size of these effects

policy uncertainty and the demand for money in the united kingdom limited studies that have assessed the impact of economic uncertainty on the demand for money have concentrated on using a volatility measure of money supply and output certainly other factors such as regulation taxes budget deficits national debt etc can contribute to an uncertain environment this new measure of uncertainty which is called policy uncertainty is now constructed for several countries and published we investigate the impact of this new measure on the demand for money in the uk and find that it has a negative and significant short run effect but not any log run effects