the long run and short run impact of captive supplies on the spot market price an agent based artificial market an agent based model is developed that matches the results of xia and sexton 2004 as well as our generalization of their model we relax xia and sexton s assumption of no supply response by captive feeders which reduces the price depressing effect of captive supplies finally the agent based model is used to simulate packers choosing both captive supply quantities and spot market quantities packers in the relaxed agent based model choose no captive supplies and thus reach the cournot solution the research narrows the gap between theoretical models and the empirical work on captive supplies that shows little effect on prices but a gap remains

has regulatory reform had any impact on bank efficiency in indonesia a two stage analysis abstractmore than a decade following the severe economic crisis 1997 indonesia has undergone major regulatory changes in its banking industry this article examines the impact of these regulatory changes on the relative technical efficiency te of the indonesian banking industry employing data envelopment analysis dea and censored tobit regression model additionally the bootstrap approach of simar and wilson is employed to provide statistical properties to the dea efficiency score the findings show that the industry on average is inefficient over the period of analysis also state owned and foreign owned banks are found to be more efficient than any other group of banks finally the impact of regulatory reforms is generally positive and statistically significant

how traders influence their neighbours modelling social evolutionary processes and peer effects in agricultural trade networks abstract marketing channel choices in agricultural trade networks affect the networks overall performance and influence rural livelihoods this study identifies key determinants of these choices among natural rubber traders in indonesia to evaluate four policy scenarios and their potential effects on rural incomes since traders marketing decisions are based on past interactions resulting trade networks are formed in recursive processes and can be understood as complex adaptive systems due to inherent endogeneity in these systems process based approaches such as agent based modelling abm can be effective in understanding them using a self gathered primary dataset from jambi province indonesia we implement and parameterise an abm to simulate the formation of the rubber trading network and analyse the effects on rural livelihoods of four hypothetical policy scenarios improved micro credit availability increased access to education better infrastructure and transportation capacity and market information availability the model is calibrated through a genetic algorithm which maximises the similarity between the simulated network and the actual network observed in the data results indicate that sellers decisions on a buyer are primarily determined by debt obligations and past peer interactions the most influential sellers have a similar level of formal education as their peers and live in close physical proximity results of the policy scenario analysis suggests that policies aimed at reducing sellers dependence on credit from buyers and increasing education are the most effective policies for improving value chains and reducing poverty in the region under consideration

buyer power with atomistic upstream entry can downstream consolidation increase production and welfare abstract this paper investigates the effects of buyer power on entry into an atomistic upstream market and economic welfare under reasonable market conditions we show that industries with a few buyers induce more upstream entry than industries with a larger number of firms in particular monopsony can be more conducive to entry and lead to higher social welfare than more fragmented industry structures this seeming paradox arises because a single buyer better internalizes the positive effects of entry on later periods supply conditions than a collection of firms this result is relevant in a number of market settings including markets for specialized labor and processing markets for agricultural products

spatial price discrimination in agricultural product procurement markets a computational economics approach significant transport costs and spatially distributed supply and processing create oligopsony power in agricultural markets price discrimination expressed in the form of partial or complete absorption of freight charges by processors is often observed in these environments but we understand little about how these pricing decisions are made analytical approaches are often intractable as an alternative we propose a computational economics approach to analyze a general spatial competition model and study firms choices of spatial pricing policy instead of the commonly presumed free on board pricing we find that buyers choose price discrimination either through uniform delivered pricing or through partial freight absorption

witchcraft beliefs as a cultural legacy of the atlantic slave trade evidence from two continents abstract this paper argues that the historical slave trade contributed to the propagation of persistent witchcraft beliefs on both sides of the atlantic ocean and establishes two key empirical patterns first it shows that in sub saharan africa representatives of ethnic groups which were more heavily exposed to the atlantic slave trade in the past are more likely to believe in witchcraft today thus establishing a link between historical trauma and contemporary culture second exploring the role of the slave trade in cultural transmission across continents this paper finds that afro descendants in modern latin america are substantially more likely to believe in witchcraft relative to other ancestral groups moreover accounting for ancestry and other relevant factors people residing in regions historically more reliant on african slave labor are also more likely to be witchcraft believers these findings support ethnographic narratives on the connection between slave trade slavery and the entrenchment of witchcraft beliefs and shed light on the nature of these beliefs and related practices as a cultural framework for interpreting misfortune and a mechanism of enslavement in local communities

the competitive implications of top of the market and related contract pricing clauses this article examines the competitive implications of contract pricing arrangements which link the contract price to the subsequent cash price we focus on so called top of the market pricing tomp in cattle procurement the tomp clause is shown to have anticompetitive consequences when the same buyers who purchase contract cattle with the tomp clause also compete to procure cattle in the subsequent spot market the tomp clause reduces packers incentives to compete aggressively in the spot market although tomp pricing is not in producers collective interest rational sellers may nonetheless sign these contracts with little or no financial inducement

de facto political power and institutional persistence much of the empirical work and the conceptual discussion of the impact of institutions on economic development either implicitly or explicitly assumes that institutions persist although acemoglu et al 2001 provide evidence that constraints on the executive persist many aspects of institutions change frequently less developed countries cycle between democracy and dictatorship and often change their constitutions relatedly while the current economic problems in latin america are often traced back to colonial times stanley l engerman and kenneth l sokoloff 1997 acemoglu et al 2002 the specific institutions that once underpinned the colonial economy such as the encomienda the mita or slavery vanished long ago these observations suggest that we need to develop a framework in which changes in certain dimensions of institutions are consistent with overall institutional persistence in this paper we make an attempt to highlight some important mechanisms for understanding simultaneous change and persistence in institutions institutional persistence in this context refers to the persistence of a cluster of economic institutions such as the extent of enforcement of property rights for a broad cross section of society acemoglu et al 2001 such lack of property rights enforcement may be driven by quite different specific institutions e g risk of expropriation entry barriers or economic systems such as serfdom or slavery in turn these different specific economic institutions may exist under different political institutions including dictatorships absolutist monarchies oligarchies and corrupt or even populist democracies given this rich array of possibilities a useful framework must specify which aspects of institutions can change which others have a tendency to persist in equilibrium and how the persistence of certain types of institutions could have lasting effects on economic outcomes in this paper we provide a simple model of the coexistence of change and persistence in institutions first we describe some existing approaches to the persistence of social arrangements as well as the essence of the mechanism we propose next we illustrate the key issues using the experience of the southern united states and last we provide a simple model that formalizes the main mechanism in the paper we conclude by discussing a complementary mechanism to the one presented in this paper

historical frontiers and the rise of inequality the case of the frontier of granada the authors acknowledge financial support from the spanish ministry of science and technology grant eco2009 13357 the spanish ministry of economics and competitiveness grant eco2012 35430 and the andalusian council of innovation and science excellence project sej 4546

regional growth and finance in europe is there a quality effect of bank efficiency abstract in this study we test whether regional growth in 11 european countries depends on financial development and suggest the use of cost and profit efficiency estimates as quality measures of financial institutions contrary to the usual quantitative proxies of financial development the quality of financial institutions is measured in this study as the relative ability of banks to intermediate funds an improvement in bank efficiency spurs five times more regional growth then an identical increase in credit does more credit provided by efficient banks exerts an independent growth effect in addition to direct quantity and quality channel effects

a framework to analyze the performance of thinly traded agricultural commodity markets thinly traded agricultural commodity markets are a concern for farmers and policy markers due to the belief that prices in these settings will be highly volatile subject to manipulation and incapable of efficiently allocating resources analysis of thin agricultural markets has to date been impeded by lack of an appropriate analytical framework from which to study their behavior in this paper we propose the modern agricultural markets mam framework as an appropriate paradigm through which to view and evaluate thin markets we argue that thinly traded markets that meet key conditions required for a mam will generate maximum economic surplus and enable farmers to earn at least a competitive return on their investments in the absence of these conditions however the concerns known as the thin market problem have validity we set forth the mam framework interpret it in a thin market context and conduct several brief case studies of thin markets to illustrate use of the approach and draw some key inferences about these markets behavior the analysis indicates that appropriate government policies directed to thin markets are those that facilitate their convergence to mam status but in reality key policies under recent consideration would have the opposite effect

nontraditional activities and the efficiency of us commercial banks abstract in recent years an increasing portion of bank income has been generated through nontraditional activities most studies of bank efficiency do not include any measure of nontraditional activities when measuring outputs in this paper cost revenue and profit efficiency are estimated by using models with and without nontraditional output the results suggest that the standard model which omits nontraditional output understates bank efficiency evidence also surfaces that based on efficiency the relative ranking of individual banks changes when nontraditional activities are included as a type of output

bank commercial loan markets and the role of market structure evidence from surveys of commercial lending abstract this paper seeks to test two tenets that underlie the current practice of antitrust analysis in banking the first is the view that bank commercial loan markets are local in nature and the second is the view that banks in more concentrated markets are more likely to engage in some form of noncompetitive behavior tests of both of these tenets are conducted using an extensive set of loan specific survey information not previously employed to address these issues results consistent with the existence of local banking markets and the dominance of competitive differences as an explanation for observed differences in loan rates are found

the behavior of the exchange rate in the genetic algorithm and experimental economies this paper studies the behavior of the exchange rate in the kareken wallace overlapping generations economy with two currencies in which decision rules are updated using the genetic algorithm the analysis shows that a stationary monetary equilibrium of the kareken wallace model is not stable under the genetic algorithm dynamics the fluctuations in the genetic algorithm exchange rate are driven by fluctuations in the portfolio fractions which change over time in response to the inequality between the rates of return on two currencies further both the genetic algorithm simulations and the experiments with human subjects were characterized by continuing fluctuations of the exchange rate with first period consumption values close to a stationary value

analysing the determinants of performance of best and worst european banks a mixed logit approach abstract using a dataset of 7635 observations on 1384 commercial banks operating in the eu between 1993 and 2001 we utilise a mixed logit model to identify factors that explain the probability of a bank being a best worst performer the empirical evidence confirms the importance of country level characteristics location and legal tradition and firm level features bank ownership balance sheet structure and size specifically smaller sized banks with higher loan intensity and foreign banks from countries upholding common law traditions have a higher probability of best performance

x efficiency in banking looking beyond the balance sheet the distribution free and stochastic frontier estimation methods are used to derive bank specific measures of cost and profit xefficiency this is done to investigate the importance of including aggregate measures of off balance sheet obs activities the results indicate that economic cost and production cost x efficiency estimates increase with the inclusion of the obs measure profit xefficiency estimates are largely unaffected further the composition of bankso obs activities appears to help explain interbank differences in cost and profit x efficiency estimates whereas bank size and the mix between on and off balance sheet banking activities are largely uncorrelated with the x efficiency estimates

property rights in a fishery regulatory change and firm performance a new method is introduced and applied to the british columbia halibut fishery to analyze changes in productivity of firms harvesting a natural capital stock the index number technique decomposes the contributions of output prices variable input prices fixed inputs and productivity to firm profits adjusted for changes in the natural capital stock an application of the method is given using micro level data from a common pool resource the indexes provide a ready made comparison of all firms to the most profitable firm per unit of resource stock benchmarking with the decompositions also allows firms and regulators to improve overall industry performance by allowing them to analyze what components are contributing most to relative economic profits

the economic effects of the abolition of serfdom evidence from the russian empire we document substantial increases in agricultural productivity industrial output and peasants nutrition in imperial russia as a result of the abolition of serfdom in 1861 before the emancipation provinces where serfs constituted the majority of agricultural laborers lagged behind provinces that primarily relied on free labor the emancipation led to a significant but partial catch up better incentives of peasants resulting from the cessation of ratchet effect were a likely mechanism behind a relatively fast positive effect of reform on agricultural productivity the land reform which instituted communal land tenure after the emancipation diminished growth in productivity in repartition communes

an illustration of the essential difference between individual and social learning and its consequences for computational analyses abstract drawing a conclusion from recent insights in evolutionary game theory we show that a so called spite effect implies that there is an essential difference between individual and social learning we illustrate its consequences for the choice of computational tools in economics and social settings in general by analyzing two variants of a genetic algorithm

financial distress drivers in brazilian banks a dynamic slacks approach abstract this study applies the dynamic slacks based model dsbm developed by tone and tsutsui 2010 in order to assess the evolution of input saving output increasing potentials in major brazilian banks from 1996 to 2011 we propose that these potentials or slacks can be used as proxies for an eventual financial distress situation in the future the main research objective is to determine whether or not different characteristics of bank type related to ownership size and merger and acquisition processes are significantly related to inefficiency levels and by extension to an eventual financial distress situation since higher inefficiency levels also imply lower input saving output decreasing potentials based on a balanced panel model secondary data from economatica were collected and analyzed results indicate higher inefficiency levels and slacks in small public and national banks policy implications are also addressed

history social divisions and public goods in rural india we examine the influence of three historically important sources of social divisions on the availability of public goods in rural india colonial power landowner peasant relations as determined by the land tenure system and social fragmentation based on the hindu caste system and the presence of sizable religious minorities using data on public goods from 1991 we find that regions that were under british colonial power in the pre independence period and those where agrarian power was concentrated in the hands of landlords have lower access to these goods as do areas with high levels of social fragmentation jel h41 p16

history institutions and economic performance the legacy of colonial land tenure systems in india we analyze the colonial land revenue institutions set up by the british in india and show that differences in historical property rights institutions lead to sustained differences in economic outcomes areas in which proprietary rights in land were historically given to landlords have significantly lower agricultural investments and productivity in the post independence period than areas in which these rights were given to the cultivators these areas also have significantly lower investments in health and education these differences are not driven by omitted variables or endogeneity problems they probably arise because differences in historical institutions lead to very different policy choices

the long term effects of africa s slave trades can part of africa s current underdevelopment be explained by its slave trades to explore this question i use data from shipping records and historical documents reporting slave ethnicities to construct estimates of the number of slaves exported from each country during africa s slave trades i find a robust negative relationship between the number of slaves exported from a country and current economic performance to better understand if the relationship is causal i examine the historical evidence on selection into the slave trades and use instrumental variables together the evidence suggests that the slave trades have had an adverse effect on economic development

genetic algorithm learning and the cobweb model this paper presents the cobweb model in which competitive firms in a market for a single good use a genetic algorithm to update their decision rules about next period production and sales the results of simulations show that the genetic algorithm converges to the rational expectations equilibrium for a wider range of parameter values than other algorithms frequently studied within the context of the cobweb model price and quantity patterns generated by the genetic algorithm are also compared to the data of experimental cobweb economies it is shown that the algorithm can capture several features of the experimental behavior of human subjects better than three other learning algorithms that are considered

selection on observed and unobserved variables assessing the effectiveness of catholic schools in this paper we measure the effect of catholic high school attendance on educational attainment and test scores because we do not have a good instrumental variable for catholic school attendance we develop new estimation methods based on the idea that the amount of selection on the observed explanatory variables in a model provides a guide to the amount of selection on the unobservables we also propose an informal way to assess selectivity bias based on measuring the ratio of selection on unobservables to selection on observables that would be required if one is to attribute the entire effect of catholic school attendance to selection bias we use our methods to estimate the effect of attending a catholic high school on a variety of outcomes our main conclusion is that catholic high schools substantially increase the probability of graduating from high school and more tentatively attending college we find little evidence of an effect on test scores

banking reforms performance and risk in china we investigate the impact of the banking reform started from 2005 on ownership structures in china on commercial banks profitability efficiency and risk over the period 2000 2012 providing comprehensive evidence on the impact of banking reform in china we find that banks on average tend to have higher profitability lower risk and lower efficiency after the reforms and the results are robust with our difference in difference approach our results also show that the big 5 state owned banks socb underperform banks with other types of ownership when risk is measured by non performing loans npls over the entire study period but tend to have fewer npls than other banks during the post reform period our results provide some supporting evidence on the ongoing banking reforms in china suggesting that attracting strategic foreign investors and listing socbs on stock exchanges appear to be effective ways to help socbs deal with the problem of npls and manage their risk

the luenberger indicator and productivity growth a note on the european savings banks sector we employ the luenberger productivity indicator to estimate productivity growth and its decomposition into technical change and efficiency change components for savings banks sectors in 10 eu countries between 1996 and 2003 the luenberger indicator requires less restrictive assumptions than standard nonparametric productivity indexes and it allows the assumption of profit maximization to be made for sample firms we estimate average productivity growth in the savings banks sector to be 2 78 per annum and driven almost entirely by technical change whilst the general results confirm earlier findings this study is one of the earliest to identify cross border differences in productivity growth in the savings banks sector

banks responses to deregulation profits technology and efficiency the deregulation of interest rates in the early 1980s raised bank funding costs and lowered profits in response banks raised fees for deposit services reduced branch operating costs and shifted to higher earning assets rates of return did not regain their prederegulation levels until the early 1990s our goal is to decompose the change in bank profits following deregulation into i intemal bank initiated adjustments to the new regulatory structure and ii external contemporaneous changes in banks business environment this decomposition will depend in part on the assumed competitive structure of the banking industry with perfect competition output and input prices are part of the external environment and banks responses are limited to changes in output and input quantities an alternative approach assumes imperfect competition where banks have some control over output prices deposit fees minimum balance requirements and interest rates on certain loans and output quantities and input prices comprise the external environment the altemative model is supported by the data using this model large banks but not smaller banks are found to have relied primarily on changing output prices and input use to mitigate and reverse the negative effects of deregulation on profits the adjustment to deregulation was essentially complete after four years following this additional changes in bank profitability during the late 1980s were primarily due to changes in banks business environment

multimarket contact and collusive behavior traditional analyses of industrial behavior typically link the exercise of market power in an industry to internalfeatures such as demand conditions concentration and barriers to entry nevertheless some economists have remained concerned that external factors such as contact across markets may also play a significant role in determining the level of competitiveness in any particular industry in this article we examine the effect of multimarket contact on the degree of cooperation that firms can sustain in settings of repeated competition we isolate conditions under which multimarket contact facilitates collusion and show that these collusive gains are achieved through modes of behavior that have been identified in previous empirical studies of multimarketfirms

marketing agreement impacts in an experimental market for fed cattle marketing agreements between meatpacking and cattle feeding firms have created concerns about their effects on fed cattle prices profit sharing marketing agreements were imposed onto a simulated fed cattle market price level and variability differences with and without agreements between agreement participants and nonparticipants during agreement and nonagreement periods and between participants receiving and not receiving a monetary incentive were evaluated prices and variability for nonagreement cattle were higher during the agreement periods marketing agreement participants realized lower less variable prices than nonparticipating firms monetary incentives did not affect price levels but increased price variability

factor endowments inequality and paths of development among new world economies whereas traditional explanations of differences in long run paths of development across the americas generally point to the significance of differences in national heritage or religion we highlight the relevance of stark contrasts in the degree of inequality in wealth human capital and political power in accounting for how fundamental economic institutions evolved over time we argue moreover that the roots of these disparities in the extent of inequality lay in differences in the initial factor endowments dating back to the era of european colonization we document through comparative studies of suffrage public land and schooling policies systematic patterns by which societies in the americas that began with more extreme inequality or heterogeneity in the population were more likely to develop institutional structures that greatly advantaged members of elite classes and disadvantaging the bulk of the population by providing them with more political influence and access to economic opportunities the clear implication is that institutions should not be presumed to be exogenous economists need to learn more about where they come from to understand their relation to economic development our findings not only contribute to our knowledge of why extreme differences in the extent of inequality across new world economies have persisted for centuries but also to the study of processes of long run economic growth past and present

do consumers pay for one stop banking evidence from an alternative revenue function abstract in providing financial services jointly banks may reduce costs due to complementarities in production cost economies of scope or raise revenues from complementarities in consumption revenue economies of scope cost economies of scope between bank deposits and loans have been found to be small revenue economies of scope are investigated here for the first time and found to be insignificant over 1978 1990 for both small and large banks and for those on or off the revenue efficient frontier the lack of complementarities between deposits and loans where benefits are most likely to occur suggests that claims of important synergies from an expansion of banking powers be taken with caution

does organizational form impact pricing asymmetry evidence from nonprofit financial institutions why output prices tend to rise faster in response to input cost increases than they fall in response to input cost decreases is a hotly debated issue in modern economics in this article i contribute to this asymmetric pricing debate by expanding the domain of organizational forms where this question has been investigated more specifically previous research has focused on for profit firms i expand the investigation by focusing on nonprofit organizations credit unions are the nonprofit organization used in my analysis credit unions provide essentially identical types of consumer financial services and products as commercial banks but do so from a very different not for profit orientation however in this study i document similar asymmetric rate setting behavior by credit unions this suggests that pricing asymmetry is likely to be much more widespread as it relates to nonprofit institutions as well as those in the for profit sector

the long reach of cotton in the us south tenant farming mechanization and low skill manufacturing abstract this paper examines the long run impact of cotton agriculture on local development in the us south focusing on a novel aspect of structural change exploiting climate based variation in cotton production i show that cotton specialization in the late 19th century had a negative impact on local development that lasts through 2010 this negative relationship however only became evident in the second half of the 20th century i argue that the change was caused by the mechanization of cotton production which began in the 1950s after the mechanization local manufacturing absorbed displaced cotton tenants with low human capital in response to the inflow of cotton tenants labor productivity in manufacturing began to decline and the effects persisted in the long run the persistent decline in manufacturing productivity is explained by directed technical change that reduced demand for skills in manufacturing these results indicate that depending on the agricultural background structural change can negatively affect the evolution of technology and productivity in the industrial sector

changes in beef packers market power after the livestock mandatory price reporting act an agent based auction controversy remains about the effectiveness of the 1999 livestock mandatory price reporting act mpra we determine the likely changes in beef packers market power after the mpra by using an agent based first price common value auction past research has employed cournot models but we use an auction model which more closely resembles the actual cattle procurement process we find that feeders benefit from the mpra regardless of whether price uncertainty decreases for packers and or feeders if the packers price uncertainty is reduced the feeder benefits from an increase in competition between the packers if the feeder s price uncertainty is reduced the feeder benefits from imposing more accurate reserve prices copyright 2013 oxford university press

enjoying the quiet life under deregulation not quite summary most empirical studies in the banking literature assume that the alternative profit function is linearly homogeneous in input prices we show that such an assumption is theoretically unwarranted and that its use may yield misleading results we use koetter et al review of economics and statistics 2012 94 2 462 480 as a benchmark to showcase how empirical results can be sensitive to the linear homogeneity assumption contrary to koetter et al we find a positive relation between market power and profit efficiency when this assumption is dropped this relation is slightly weakened after the wave of intrastate and interstate deregulation but not enough to support the quiet life hypothesis copyright 2014 john wiley sons ltd

how did bank holding companies prosper in the 1990s abstract this paper examines the improved performance of us bank holding companies bhcs from 1991 to 1997 analysis of cost and profit functions using several alternative output specifications suggests that the gains were primarily due to productivity growth and changes in scale economies various econometric methodologies yield productivity growth of about 0 4 per year and the optimal size seems to have increased in the 1990s era of deregulation technological change and financial innovation estimates of both productivity growth and economies of scale are robust across traditional and non traditional output specifications despite the overall success however substantial cost and profit inefficiency existed for bhcs of all sizes in the 1990s these efficiency estimates are particularly sensitive to the output specification and failure to account for non traditional activities like off balance sheet obs items leads profit efficiency but not cost efficiency to be understated for the largest bhcs

mergers and technical efficiency in spanish savings banks a stochastic distance function approach abstract the aim of this paper is to test the temporal variation of technical efficiency of spanish savings banks during the period 1985 1998 furthermore we test whether merged and non merged firms have different levels and temporal patterns of technical efficiency a stochastic output distance function r w shephard theory of cost and production functions princeton university press princeton nj is employed to accommodate multiple output technology the distance function provides the advantage that it does not need information about prices so it can accommodate the multi product nature of the financial sector only using the quantities as data an important point when the assumptions about perfectly competitive markets are unlikely to be met the temporal variation of efficiency is modeled extending the battese and coelli journal of productivity analysis 3 1992 153 169 approach in two ways relaxing the monotonicity of the temporal variation pattern of the efficiency term and allowing for different patterns of efficiency change between merged and non merged firms

sales at risk a test of the mutual forbearance theory of conglomerate behavior in seeking to understand the implications of the large amount of diversification and conglomeration that has occurred in the united states since the mid 1960s some economists have revived the mutual forbearance hypothesis first presented by edwards 1955 several papers have attempted to formalize or test this hypothesis which states that multimarket contacts mmcs among firms have the potential for facilitating collusion in one or more of the markets where these contacts occur using 1976 data from the federal trade commission s line of business study an earlier paper feinberg 1982 developed a framework for evaluating mmcs and inthis paper tests the mutual forbearance theory of conglomerate behavior at both company and industry levels using 1976 data from the federal trade commission s line of business program this theory states that companies meeting rivals in more than one market will be able to facilitate collusion in one or all of those markets at the company level the evidence supports the theory showing salesat risk a measure of the importance of multimarket contacts to increase price cost margins in the moderate range of concentration where collusion is feasible but difficult to achieve without mutual forbearance the industry level results are weaker casting some doubt on the hypothesis associate professor of economics pennsylvania state university this paper was begun while i was a consultant to the line of business program at the federal trade commission the manager of the line of business program has certified that he has reviewed and approved the disclosure avoidance procedures used by the staff of the line of business program to insure that the data included in this paper do not identify individual company line of business data views expressed here are my own and not necessarily those of the federal trade commission i would like to thank william long george pascoe david ravenscraft melvin reder and an anonymous referee for their help on this project 1 these studies often refer to terms other than mutual forbearance e g spheres of influence extended interdependence they include adams 1974 reynolds 1976 heggestad and rhoades 1978 areeda and turner 1979 strickland 1980 feinberg 1982 1984 scott 1982 and feinberg and sherman 1985

the risk of financial intermediaries this paper reconsiders the formal estimation of bank risk using the variability of the profit function in our model point estimates of the variability of profits are derived from a model where this variability is endogenous to other bank characteristics such as capital and liquidity we estimate the new model on the entire panel of us banks spanning the period 1985q1 2012q4 the findings show that bank risk was fairly stable up to 2001 and accelerated quickly thereafter up to 2007 we also establish that the risk of the relatively large banks and banks that failed in the subprime crisis is higher than the industry s average thus we provide a new leading indicator which is able to forecast future solvency problems of banks

the competitive role of credit unions in small local financial services markets although there is a considerable literature on the role of market structure in banking markets no attention has been given to the impact of the competitive discipline provided by credit unions on consumer credit rates offered by banks after presenting a theoretical framework for understanding the impact credit unions should be expected to have this article analyzes a pooled cross sectional time series sample with roughly 1 000 observations on relatively small united states markets with the focus on explaining bank rates for two types of consumer loans results confirm the previously observed role of market structure and suggest a significant role for credit unions in disciplining the exercise of market power by banks

captive supplies market conduct and the open market price in this paper i examine the anatomy of the price captive supplies relationship to ascertain if some of the interpretations offered in the empirical literature are defensible gardner s one product two input model is extended to consider a partially integrated oligopsonistic industry the main result is that although the empirical relationship between captive supplies and the price received by independent producers is negative it may or may not be attributed to noncompetitive conduct hence for an econometric model to detect what type of conduct the relationship reflects more structural detail is needed than what so far has been provided in the literature

good bad and ugly colonial activities do they matter for economic development levels of development vary widely within countries in the americas we argue that part of this variation has its roots in the colonial era when colonizers engaged in different economic activities in different regions of a country we present evidence consistent with the view that bad activities those that depended heavily on labor exploitation led to lower economic development today than good activities those that did not rely on labor exploitation our results also suggest that differences in political representation but not in income inequality or human capital could be the intermediating factor between colonial activities and current development

financial sector liberalization bank privatization and efficiency evidence from pakistan abstract the pakistani banking system has been transformed over the past 15 years through liberalization the entry of private banks the privatization of public sector banks and the tightening of prudential regulations the effects of these changes on bank productivity and relative efficiency are investigated using various techniques bank productivity in terms of profits has increased and new entrants have been efficient but the dispersion of efficiency remains wide the privatized banks improved their profit efficiency in the period immediately following their privatization but in the subsequent years only one significantly improved its efficiency whereas the other did not differentiate itself in terms of efficiency from the remaining state owned banks the new private domestic banks generally proved to be among the most efficient and sometimes out performed the foreign banks

deregulation ownership and productivity growth in the banking industry evidence from india this paper analyzes the relationship between deregulation and total factor productivity tfp growth in the indian banking industry using a generalized shadow cost function approach tfp growth is decomposed into a technological change a scale and a miscellaneous component a disaggregated panel data analysis using the population of public and private banks over 1985 96 that covers both pre and post deregulation periods indicates that a significant decline in regulatory distortions and the anticipated increase in tfp growth have not yet materialized following deregulation while private sector banks have improved their performance mainly due to the freedom to expand output public sector banks have not responded well to the deregulation measures

a note on savings and loan ownership structure and expense preference a re examination this study extends the work of akella and greenbaum journal of banking finance 12 1988 419 through the use of a much larger nationwide sample of us saving and loan associations and supports their original finding of significant expense preference behavior in mutual savings and loans during their original study period 1979 80 this study also provides evidence that over the time period of substantial deregulation and changes in the competitive environment in the us financial services industry expense preference behavior for savings and loans decreased the results are consistent with the idea that the removal of barriers that restrict competition should improve managerial efficiency in firms that survive 2003 elsevier b v all rights reserved

biological measures of the standard of living when economists investigate long term trends and socioeconomic differences in the standard of living or quality of life they have traditionally focused on monetary measures such as gross domestic product which has occupied center stage for over 50 years in recent decades however scholars have increasingly recognized the limitations of monetary measures while seeking useful alternatives this essay examines the unique and valuable contributions of four biological measures life expectancy morbidity stature and certain features of skeletal remains to understand levels and changes in human well being people desire far more than material goods and in fact they are quite willing to trade or give up material things in return for better physical or psychological health for most people health is so important to their quality of life that it is useful to refer to the biological standard of living biological measures may be especially valuable for historical studies and for other research circumstances where monetary measures are thin or lacking a concluding section ruminates on the future evolution of biological approaches in measuring happiness

agent based spatial models applied to agriculture a simulation tool for technology diffusion resource use changes and policy analysis abstract this paper presents a spatial multi agent programming model which has been developed for assessing policy options in the diffusion of innovations and resource use changes unlike conventional simulation tools used in agricultural economics the model class described here applies a multi agent cellular automata ca approach by using heterogeneous farm household models and capturing their social and spatial interactions explicitly the individual choice of the farm household among available production consumption investment and marketing alternatives is represented in recursive linear programming models adoption constraints are introduced in form of network threshold values that reflect the cumulative effects of experience and observation of peers experiences the model s economic and hydrologic components are tightly connected into a spatial framework the integration of economic and hydrologic processes facilitates the consideration of feedback effects in the use of water for irrigation the simulation runs of the model are carried out with an empirical data set which has been derived from various data sources on an agricultural region in chile simulation results show that agent based spatial modelling constitutes a powerful approach to better understanding processes of innovation and resource use change

the determinants of bank rates in local consumer lending markets comparing market and institution level results 1 introductionwith the exception of a few very recent studies the sizeable literature on the impact of market structure in banking markets1 has ignored the potential competitive role played by credit unions this is surprising since the continuing consolidation of the financial services industry in recent years has naturally raised concerns about competitive effects and credit unions would seem to be a likely source of market discipline 2 this paper explores these issues using both market and firm data using a variety of approaches economists have started paying some attention to the interaction between banks and credit unions emmons and schmid 2000 using county level data examine twoway intertemporal linkages between credit union participation rates and market concentration of the commercial banking sector to support the view that the two types of institutions compete in the market for consumer deposits similarly feinberg and rahman 2001 find that credit union and bank rates for two consumer loan products can each be shown to be influenced by the other tokle and tokle 2000 found a competitive influence of credit unions on bank certificate of deposit cd rates offered in idaho and montana while feinberg 2001 explored their impact on consumer loan rates in a broader sample of relatively small local markets3 over the 1992 1997 period the latter article found that both unsecured and new vehicle loan rates offered by banks in these markets were affected in a significant manner by the market share held by the two leading banks implying a competitive role for smaller financial institutions generally and for new vehicle loan rates alone by the share of credit unions in those markets whether these results would generalize to larger metropolitan areas is unclear and is the topic of what follows i focus on the same two loan products 24 month unsecured non credit card loans and 48 month new vehicle loans both of which seem likely to be provided in a local market and empirically explain the determinants of bank loan rates in a sample of 56 markets both large and small for the period 1992 1998 an innovative aspect of this paper is that i analyze both market level data and institution level data for 81 banks in those 56 markets and consider as well the role of multimarket linkages affecting these banks 2 theoretical frameworkvirtually all models of imperfect competition imply that increasing entry and supply from fringe suppliers will lower prices this clearly suggests that an increasing credit union presence should discipline prices in local financial services markets to formalize i employ a modified version of the dominant firm price leadership model the modification involves the notion that while credit unions may generally be thought of as fringe suppliers not all banks and savings and loans sl ii as cu increases the li declines iii as epsilon sub cu increases the li declines and not quite as obvious but easy to derive iv the declines in ii and iii are larger in absolute value as cr2 is larger

the mission human capital transmission economic persistence and culture in south america this article examines the long term consequences of a historical human capital intervention the jesuit order founded religious missions in 1609 among the guarani in modern day argentina brazil and paraguay before their expulsion in 1767 missionaries instructed indigenous inhabitants in reading writing and various crafts using archival records as well as data at the individual and municipal level i show that in areas of former jesuit presence within the guarani area educational attainment was higher and remains so by 10 15 250 years later these educational differences have also translated into incomes that are 10 higher today the identification of the positive effect of the guarani jesuit missions emerges after comparing them with abandoned jesuit missions and neighboring franciscan guarani missions the enduring effects observed are consistent with transmission mechanisms of structural transformation occupational specialization and technology adoption in agriculture

trends in efficiency in response to regulatory reforms the case of indian and pakistani commercial banks this paper attempts to estimate trends in the efficiency levels of indian and pakistani commercial banks between 1985 and 2003 a time period which encompasses two phases of significant change to the regulation of the financial sector in both countries our efficiency estimates show that during the initial years of the post reform period a reduction in efficiency is observed for banks in both countries however efficiency levels were found to have increased subsequently suggesting a period of initial adjustment throughout much of the 1990s followed by a subsequent correction in the latter part of the sample period

shareholder value creation in japanese banking this paper advances the study of fiordelisi and molyneux 2010 by examining the shareholder value efficiency and its determinants for a large sample of japanese banks between 1999 and 2011 a new specifically tailored measure of the economic value added approach based on the shadow price of equity is developed in order to account for specific characteristics of the japanese banking system this new shareholder value measure is then used in a dynamic panel data model as a linear function of various bank risk bank specific and macroeconomic variables this study finds that cost efficiency gains credit risk and bank size are the most important factors in explaining the shareholder value creation in japanese banking cost efficiency changes are also found to significantly influence cost of equity capital

introduction to the special issue on agent based computational economics abstract a brief overview of agent based computational economics ace is given followed by a synopsis of the articles included in this special issue on ace and in a companion special issue on ace scheduled to appear in computational economics

the price concentration relationship in banking the commonly observed positive correlation between market concentration and profitability may be explained by noncompetitive pricing behavior as argued by the structure performance hypothesis or by the greater efficiency of firms with dominant market shares as argued by the efficient structure hypothesis by examining the price concentration relationship instead of the profit concentration relationship this paper tests the structure performance hypothesis in a manner that excludes the efficient structure hypothesis as an alternative explanation of the results the results strongly support the structure performance hypothesis and are robust with respect to model specification measurement of concentration and econometric technique copyright 1989 by mit press