macroeconomic implications of production bunching factor demand linkages abstract existing empirical evidence suggests that output is more variable than consumption so that production smoothing is not apparently present in this paper we investigate some macroeconomic implications of the proposition that the empirical evidence reflects the presence of some firms in the economy that produce with nonconvex technologies overall when activities are sufficiently complementary and inventory holding is sufficiently costly nonconvexities at the firm level can generate a pattern of output and sales such that the variance of output exceeds that of sales at an aggregate level in this way nonconvexities at the individual firm level may have macroeconomic consequences

monetary policy with asset backed money we study the use of asset backed money in a neoclassical growth model with illiquid capital a mechanism is delegated control of productive capital and issues claims against the revenue it earns these claims constitute a form of asset backed money the mechanism determines i the number of claims outstanding ii the dividends paid to claim holders and iii the structure of redemption fees we find that for capital rich economies the first best allocation can be implemented and price stability is optimal however for sufficiently capital poor economies achieving the first best allocation requires a strictly positive rate of inflation in general the minimum inflation necessary to implement the first best allocation is decreasing in capital wealth

asymmetries in price and quantity adjustments by the competitive firm focusing on the crucial role of inventory carry overs in the production and sales decision we describe the profit maximizing behavior of a dynamic competitive firm facing random prices each firm s behavior is incorporated into a stochastic equilibrium model of the competitive industry with uncertain demand the industry model exhibits asymmetric cyclical fluctuations of the keynesian sort when demand is weak output contracts while price holds at a fixed floor when demand is strong price increases as output is constrained by a ceiling even in a pure world of constant returns without increasing costs the inability to instantaneously coordinate production and sales along with the existence of inventories is sufficient to yield a backward i shaped supply curve for the short run journal of economic literature classification numbers 020 021 022

currency competition a partial vindication of hayek abstract this paper establishes the existence of equilibria for environments in which outside money is issued competitively such equilibria are typically believed not to exist because of a classic overissue problem if money is valued in equilibrium an issuer produces money until its value is driven to zero by backward induction money cannot have value in the first place this paper shows that overissuance is not a problem if agents believe that if an issuer produces more than some threshold number of notes then only those notes issued up to the threshold will be valued additional notes will be worthless this result is very general applying to any monetary economy in which equilibria with and without valued money exist if the money supply is finite the paper also compares the allocation achieved by a monopolist to that achieved with competitive issuance in both a search and an overlapping generations environment the results depend on the environment considered but two general conclusions arise first it is ambiguous whether competitive issuers can achieve a more desirable allocation than a monopolist second with competitive issuance a licensing agency can always improve on pure laissez faire and achieve the efficient allocation in the long run

private fiat money with many suppliers a dynamic rational expectations model of money is used to investigate whether a nash equilibrium of many firms each supplying its own brand name currency will optimally deflate their currencies in friedman s 1969 sense the optimal deflation does arise under an open loop dynamic structure but the equilibrium breaks down under a more realistic feedback control structure

can currency competition work abstract can competition among privately issued fiat currencies work only sometimes and partially to show this we build a model of competition among privately issued fiat currencies a purely private arrangement fails to implement an efficient allocation even though it can deliver price stability under certain technological conditions although currency competition creates problems for monetary policy it is possible to design a policy rule that uniquely implements an efficient allocation

inventories rational expectations and the business cycle abstract the simplest macroeconomic models in which markets clear instantaneously and expectations are rational preclude the existence of business cycles that is of serially correlated deviations of output from trend this paper studies one of several mechanisms that can be used to make these so called new classical models produce business cycles the mechanism is the gradual adjustment of inventory stocks two macroeconomic models of inventory holdings are formulated both imply first that current output should be a decreasing function of the stock of inventories and second that inventories once perturbed from equilibrium levels should adjust only gradually these two features are then embedded into an otherwise standard macroeconomic model in which markets clear instantaneously and expectations are rational two principal conclusions are reached first disturbances such as unanticipated changes in money will set in motion serially correlated deviations of output from trend second if desired inventories are sensitive to the real interest rate then even fully anticipated changes in money can affect real variables

inventories cycle in an augmented rbc model abstract we propose an augmented version of the rbc model that can take into account the existence of lags in observation of demand shocks this hypothesis seems to be a good framework to account for inventories fluctuations we find some evidence showing the introduction of lag in observation as well as the existence of monetary shocks improve the ability of the model in matching the observed fluctuations

which foreign states support the global use of the chinese renminbi the international political economy of currency internationalisation the internationalisation of the chinese renminbi has taken a path distinct from most cases involving previous international currencies in that policy measures adopted by governments have played crucial roles in it this paper conducts a cross country analysis of the factors that have led foreign governments to introduce three primary policy infrastructures to support renminbi use renminbi swap lines renminbi qualified foreign institutional investor quotas and renminbi clearing banks our analysis shows that a state holding renminbi assets among its reserves or having more developed financial markets is likely to establish a higher level of policy infrastructure supporting renminbi use we also find that a country s economic and political relations with china may have meaningful impacts on the level of its establishment of those renminbi related policy infrastructures these findings significantly expand our understanding of renminbi internationalisation by identifying which non chinese factors have affected its progress to date they also contribute meaningfully to the literature on currency internationalisation and international currencies in general by calling attention to the roles of foreign states in the process of a currency s internationalisation

inventory and price behaviour the point of this paper is that inventory adjustment attenuates downward pressure on price when realized demand is low because firms accumulate inventory hold overs speculating that demand will be stronger in the succeeding period when realized demand is high the firm draws down its inventories until a stock out occurs and price rises to clear the market

output inflation cycles in an economy with staggered wage setting abstract the question whether increased price flexibility is stabilizing in macromodels of the business cycle has been recently questioned by de long and summers 1986 the present paper is an attempt to reconsider the question by applying some methods from the theory of nonlinear dynamics especially bifurcation theory to the analysis of a dynamic model with sluggish price adjustment it is argued that when inflation plays a destabilizing role through the mundell effect a stable closed orbit representing the perfect foresight dynamics of the output inflation pair may appear in the vicinity of a stationary state moreover bifurcation theory is applied to find analytical results about the relation between the amplitude of the cycles and the degree of flexibility of prices this relation is shown to be positive in a variety of cases

a leviathan central bank modeling seigniorage in a money search model this paper studies the nature of optimal monetary policy under a utility maximizing monetary authority in a micro founded model of money based on lagos and wright 2005 such a monetary authority represents a monopoly private money supplier or situations where fiscal policy drives monetary policy and hence the name leviathan under no commitment i characterize an equilibrium with reputation concerns the centralized market interaction is modeled as an infinitely repeated game between the leviathan monetary authority a large player and the economic agents small players where the size of the players refers to the ability to influence aggregate outcomes this large small player dynamics pins down the equilibrium set of payoffs under the assumption that agents do not refuse to use money purely for coordination reasons the one shot game has a unique nash equilibrium with maximum inflation tax the set of equilibria is considerably enlarged in the infinite repetition of the game and equilibria with a lower inflation tax can also be supported by providing appropriate incentives to the money supplier

irregular staggered contracts and monetary policy taylor s 1980 notion of staggered contracts has been widely recognized as an elegant and useful tool to modelize wage setting procedures and to generate persistence in output and employment levels in this paper we present an extension of taylor s suggestion in which staggered contracts are irregular this implies that the wage equation varies period after period recurrently and raises the issues of the non convergence and the non unicity of the corresponding reduced form then we show that a specific feedback monetary policy may resolve this difficulty and induce a unique solution when explosive solutions are a priori forbidden such a monetary policy is formed by a system of rules varying period after period recurrently

a search theoretic approach to monetary economics the essential function of money is its role as a medium of exchange the authors formalize this idea using a search theoretic equilibrium model of the exchange process that captures the double coincidence of wants problem with pure barter one advantage of the framework described here is that it is very tractable the authors also show that the model can be used to addre ss some substantive issues in monetary economics including the potenti al welfare enhancing role of money the interaction between specializat ion and monetary exchange and the possibility of equilibria with multip le fiat currencies copyright 1993 by american economic association

taking stock a critical assessment of recent research on inventories empirical and theoretical aspects of inventory behavior became hot topics in the 1950s and early 1960s no one seemed to notice the tension that was developing between the emerging macroeconomic and microeconomic views of inventories macroeconomists routinely thought of inventories as a destabilizing factor yet the prevailing micro theory viewed inventories as a stabilizing factor it was a fascinating question that was barely explored instead somewhat inexplicably interest in inventories dried up as if inventories were of minor economic significance and little intrinsic interest by the early 1980s then economists once again knew something they had known in the 1950s that inventory investment is of first order importance in business cycles but they were also beginning to realize that the standard production smoothing buffer stock model of inventories was in deep trouble this paper focuses on developments since that realization

terms of trade dynamics in asia an analysis of national saving and domestic investment responses to terms of trade changes in 14 asian ldcs abstract i estimate a three equation model of savings investment and growth on pooled time series data for 14 asian developing countries to explore terms of trade dynamic effects on the current account a terms of trade deterioration lowers aggregate saving and raises investment in the current year it also exerts a positive lagged effect on investment due to the unanticipated temporary nature of the terms of trade change the current account oscillates before returning gradually to its steady state level the model explains 65 per cent of the variance in the sample countries current accounts over the period 1962 1983

real and nominal factors in the cyclical behavior of interest rates output and money abstract short term nominal interest rates output unemployment monetary growth and inflation are represented as functions of two common latent indices a real index that underlies co movements in output and unemployment and a neutral index that is independent of output a fisherian interpretation of the real and neutral components of interest rates is provided under the assumption that anticipated inflation affects output primarily through its effect on real interest rates then monthly time series on the real and neutral components of short term treasury bill yields are constructed and the cyclical behavior of these series is compared to the behavior of output and monetary growth

the response of real wages to unanticipated money growth abstract this paper investigates the response of real wages to unanticipated money growth in the light of equilibrium theories of the business cycle these theories in their main different versions do not deliver a common and unambiguous hypothesis on this issue while some models implu a countercyclical real wage response during monetary cycles others yield the opposite result of a procyclical real wage econometric analysis of annual and quarterly u s data reported in the paper indicates that there is a weak negative real wage response to an unanticipated increase in money growth

a divisible search model of fiat money this paper extends the kiyotaki wright search model of fiat money to allow for divisible money and goods the extension allows me to examine the standard issues in monetary economics such as the neutrality and superneutrality of money by severing the artificial link in the kiyotaki wright model between the money supply and the number of money holders it is shown that money is neutral but not superneutral money growth generates a trading opportunity effect it changes the fraction of different agents in the economy and hence changes the probability with which agents have a successful match in addition money growth has a negative effect on the real money balance that is familiar in walrasian monetary models the balance of the two effects can imply a positive optimal money growth rate

inside and outside money as alternative media of exchange we study a random matching model of money in which a subset of people called bankers have known histories and the rest called nonbankers have unknown histories earlier we showed that if there are no outside assets then an optimal arrangement has bankers issuing objects banknotes that are used in trades involving nonbankers here the same model is used to compare such exclusive use of inside money to the exclusive use of outside money we show that the set of implementable outcomes using outside money is a strict subset of the set using inside money

the interrelationship between price and output decisions and investment decisions microfoundations and aggregate implications abstract this paper develops a model of firm behavior in which both price and output decisions and investment decisions are made the model permits an analysis of the dynamics of inventory and capital accumulation on price and output behavior there are two main results 1 short run price and output levels will differ from long run levels as desired stocks of inventory and capital diverge from actual levels 2 the size of the elasticities of price and output to changes in demand and cost variables depends on the speed with which gaps between desired and actual stocks are closed through investment

search inflation and capital accumulation abstract this paper constructs a model to integrate the search monetary theory into a neoclassical growth model with divisible goods and money the model is used to examine the relationship between money growth and capital accumulation the framework uncovers a distinct extensive effect that an increase in the money growth rate increases the frequency of successful trades by increasing the number of agents in the market this positive extensive effect on the number of trades can dominate the conventional negative intensive effects of money growth on individuals labor input and real money balance in which case increasing the money growth rate increases aggregate capital and output

the efficiency of self regulated payments systems learning from the suffolk system this paper analyzes the operation of the suffolk system an interbank note clearing network operating throughout new england from the 1820s through the 1850s banks made markets in each other s notes at par which allowed new england to avoid discounting of bank notes in trade privately enforced regu lations prevented free riding in the form of excessive risk taking observers of the suffolk system have been divided some emphasized the stability and effi these arrangements others argued that the arrangements were motivated by rent seeking on the part of boston banks and were primarily coervice and exploitative in the neighboring mid atlantic states regulations limited the potential for developing a regional clearing system centered in new york city on the model of the suffolk system this difference makes it possible to compare the performance of banks across regulatory regimes to judge the relative merits of the sanguine and jaundiced views of the suffolk system evidence supports the sanguine view new england s banks were able to issue more notes and these notes traded at uniform and low discount rates compared to those of other banks an examination of the balance sheets and stock returns of boston and new york city banks indicates that the stock market perceived that bank lending produced less risk for bank debt holders in boston than in new york the benefits of the system extended outside of boston peripheral new england banks displayed high propensities to issue notes and wer able to maintain low specie reserves boston banks did not show high profit rates or high ratios of market to book values of equity thus there is no evidence that boston banks extracted rents from their control of the payments system this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

inventories in a dynamic macro model with flexible prices this paper presents a disequilibrium macro model with inventories rational expectations and flexible prices it is found that less than full employment equilibria are possible even highly likely in the intermediate term and that wage reductions will cause employment to drop increasing aggregate demand will raise employment only if it is done gradually on a technical level we have multiple switching lines disconnected regimes and a connected equilibrium set which borders on a switching iline and otherwise lies in a single region

whither monetary economics i argue that monetary economics should be pursued by applying implementation theory to models which contain explicit frictions that make money essential the argument has two parts first i argue that models in which real balances are assumed to be productive models with money in utility or production functions or with cash in advance constraints contain hidden inconsistencies second i argue that the approach advocated is capable of providing new insights about some of the main issues in monetary economics the effects of monetary shocks the welfare cost of inflation and the roles of inside and outside money

the dark side of ny lon financial centres and the global financial crisis this paper brings financial centres into the debate on the causes and consequences of the global financial crisis by focusing on new york and london it argues that the degree of commonality comp

the cyclical behavior of strategic inventories this paper presents a model in which inventories are used by a duopoly to deter deviations from an implicitly collusive arrangement higher inventories allow firms to punish cheaters more strongly and can thus help to maintain collusion we show that when demand is high the incentive to deviate increases so that increases in inventories may be optimal for the duopoly this rationalizes the observed positive correlation between inventories and sales in our empirical section we show that as our model predicts this correlation is more important in concentrated industries we also provide several examples where inventories have been a factor in cartel behavior

labour force participation timing and persistence this paper examines the relative importance of timing and persistence elements in explaining cyclical fluctuations in labour supply data from the natural experiment provided by world war ii and cross sectional data on american local labour markets as well as aggregate time series data are used in the empirical work we find little evidence that timing effects play an important role in labour market dynamics the evidence suggests that views emphasizing persistence are more accurate and that previous employment tends to raise the probability of subsequent employment much of the development of applied economic theory within the past 25 years has emphasized the importance of viewing economic decisions in a life cycle context consumption decisions are today frequently viewed as being determined by wealth or permanent income the human capital revolution has brought life cycle considerations to the forefront of modern labour economics while the life cycle dynamics of labour force participation decisions have important implications for macroeconomic theory and policy they have received relatively little empirical attention with the notable exceptions of lucas and rapping 1969 and hall 1980 none of the large body of work on cyclical fluctuations in employment has explicitly relied on a dynamic model of labour supply this paper uses several types of data to examine two elements of participation dynamics the first is the aspect of timing which is implicit in the work of lucas and rapping and in mincer s 1966 early discussion of hidden unemployment the timing argument which is presented most explicitly in ghez and becker 1975 holds that leisure is easily substitutable across periods hence relatively small transitory movements in the perceived real wage or real rate of return can have large effects on the path of labour supply as individuals time their participation to coincide with periods of high transitory wages on the other hand permanent changes because they do not affect the timing decision are expected to have a much smaller effect on participation it is this view of labour supply which underlies new classical macroeconomic models the dependence is made explicit in lucas 1975 who claims that what we do know indicates that leisure in one period is an excellent substitute for leisure in other nearby periods the ability of classical macroeconomic models to explain fluctuations in employment depends on the presence of strong intertemporal substitution effects unless

inventories sticky prices and the persistence of output and inflation post war business cycle fluctuations of output and inflation are remarkably persistent many recent sticky price models however grossly underpredict this persistence we assess whether adding inventories to a standard sticky price model raises the persistence of output and inflation for this addition we consider a shopping cost model in the model consumers find shopping activities costly and the cost of shopping depends on the stock of goods available in this context producers manage inventories to smooth production and to affect the cost of shopping we find that the shopping cost model generates a persistence for output and inflation that matches the persistence observed in the post 1985 us data

integrating finance into global production networks coe n m lai k p y and wojcik d integrating finance into global production networks regional studies while successful in its aim of globalizing regional development the global production network gpn approach has thus far paid less attention to the role of finance in the dynamics of the global economy and regional development this lacuna is significant as finance is arguably even more globalized and networked than production to address this gap the paper distils the concept of the global financial network gfn from financial geography and related scholarship with advanced business services world cities and offshore jurisdictions at the core interactions between the gpn and the gfn are discussed focusing on the financing and financializing of gpns and the co evolution of globalization and financialization integrating finance into gpn research entails more than a simple extension of the approach it would also enrich it conceptually and enable it methodologically and empirically

behavioral rules inventory adjustments and the stability of macroequilibria abstract this paper extends the static analysis of nikaido 1974 and the temporary equilibrium analysis of day fan 1980 to a full disequilibrium analysis by introducing inventories explicitly into the keynes kaldor nakaido framework two different inventory adjustment processes are considered the first is based on the micro behavioral assumption that each producer coordinates his safes production and inventory departments so that inventories can be adjusted to the desired level through intra firm shipments the second follows the traditional approach of treating inventories as part of investment demand coupled with the two behavioral rules of price output determination namely full cost pricing and perceived profit maximization four models are generated these models are studied for their dynamic behaviors in disequilibrium it is found that the adjustment trajectories of both the full cost pricing and perceived profit maximization models with intra firm inventory adjustments exhibit damped cycles whereas those of both models with inventories treated as investment demand are inherently unstable

central banking as a political principal agent problem i introduction conventional wisdom holds that during election periods political leaders have incentives to misuse policy instruments to enhance their chances of reelection rogoff and sibert 1988 construct a rational political economy model of monetary policy based on this theme 1 the results of their model can be interpreted in the following way 2 society elects a leader every other period whose competence affects the level of output in the economy and private agents will tend to vote for the incumbent if the level of output is expected to be higher than that which can be provided by an unknown challenger voters have imperfect information regarding the politician s true impact on output and exogenous shocks to output and consequently cannot disentangle the effects of one from the other in an election period this asymmetry of information gives the incumbent an incentive to expand output through the use of inflationary monetary policy in order to appear more competent than he really is however rational voters are aware of this incentive to inflate and adjust their expectations such that in equilibrium no gain in output occurs and the economy suffers from excessive inflation an implication of the rogoff sibert model is that unless a society does away with elections as a way to choose policymakers excessive inflation and a political inflation cycle will be an unavoidable cost of democracy however societies can try and have tried to avoid these ill effects by taking the power of money creation away from the elected officials and giving it to an appointed independent central banker who will presumably pursue the public good but can this approach actually work the problem with this proposal is that the central bankers well being in many respects reappointment post central bank employment opportunities avoidance of public criticism etc often hinges on pleasing their political benefactors giving the central bankers incentives to act in the interest of elected officials 3 as a result the central banker could pursue objectives different from society s and may actually function as a veil for the elected policymaker in the real world this veil is not complete but partial and hence we can characterize the relationship between the monetary authority and society as a principal agent problem the advantage of delegating power to an appointed central banker and then erecting appropriate institutions is that the inflation problems may be resolved without abandoning the electoral process in this paper we develop a rational political business cycle model that starts from the foundations laid down by rogoff and sibert we depart from their model by having monetary policy delegated to a central banker who is appointed by the elected leaden the concern about reappointment is what motivates the agency problem the central banker would like to be reappointed and this desire leads her to partially accommodate the wishes of the current administration which in turn may not coincide with the desires of the electorate we then analyze the problem faced by a central banker who is concerned about her own selfinterest as well as social well being it is this feature that turns the setting of monetary policy into a political principal agent problem the contributions of our approach to modelling the agency problem of central banking are 1 it explicitly incorporates reappointment concerns into the decision process of the central banker which heretofore has not been done in the literature and 2 we explicitly model the source of the agency problem unlike previous research that simply assumes an agency problem exists our key results are as follows in equilibrium the pursuit of her own self interest leads the central banker to create a socially inefficient inflation bias while rogoff and sibert also obtain this result our explicit functionalform model allows us to analyze this bias in more detail and tie it directly to the strength of the relationship between the central banker and the current administration

on the efficiency of monetary exchange how divisibility of money matters abstract we use alternative assumptions about the divisibility of goods and money and the ability of agents to use lotteries on money to investigate to what extent the indivisibility of money is the cause for the typically inefficient production and consumption decisions in search theoretic models of money our framework potentially generates three types of inefficiencies the no trade inefficiency where no trade takes place even though it would be socially efficient to trade and the too much trade and too little trade inefficiencies where the quantities produced and exchanged are either larger or smaller than what the solution to a social planner s problem would mandate it is shown that while the no trade and the too much trade inefficiencies are caused by the indivisibility of money the too little trade inefficiency remains even when money is divisible unless it is sufficiently valued

the resurgence of inventory research what have we learned abstract recent empirical and theoretical research on business inventories is surveyed and critically evaluated while most inventory research has had macroeconomic motivations we focus on its microtheoretic basis and on potential conflicts between theory and evidence the paper asks two principal questions first how can inventories which are allegedly used by firms to stabilize production nonetheless be a destabilizing factor at the macroeconomic level second why if firms are following the production smoothing model is production more variable than sales in many industries we suggest that the so called s s model may help answer both questions

endogenous supply of fiat money abstract we consider whether reputation concerns can discipline the behavior of a long lived self interested agent who has a monopoly over the provision of fiat money we obtain that when this agent can commit to a choice of money supply there is a monetary equilibrium where it never overissues we show however that monetary equilibria with no overissue do not exist when there is no commitment this happens because the incentives this agent has to maintain a reputation for providing valuable currency disappear once its reputation is high enough more generally we prove that in the absence of commitment overissue happens infinitely often in any monetary equilibrium we conclude by showing that imperfect memory can restore the positive result obtained with commitment

on the essentiality of banks we compare allocations sustained by credit with allocations sustained by bank notes inside money in a search model with decentralized trade and limited monitoring we demonstrate that there exists a credit arrangement that is superior to inside money however in contrast with inside money this arrangement is not robust to an expansion of trade that is not accompanied by an adequate increase in the degree of monitoring therefore banks are essential when trade is intense and monitoring is limited as a historical application we argue that our model helps explain the origins of banking in medieval and early modern europe

the impact of interest rates on price and supply the author considers the effect of an increase in the current and future interest rate on the stationary price and su pply policy of a stock holding firm and provides necessary and suffi cient conditions for either price or supply to be raised in response

sluggish price adjustments and the effectiveness of monetary policy under rational expectations comment the question of the effectiveness of monetary policy has become one of the most controversial issues in macroeconomics in recent years sargent and wallace 16 demonstrated that in a model in which prices are assumed to atdjust to clear markets each period 1 output behaves according to the lucas 9 supply function and expectations are formed according to the rational expectations hypothesis any systematic monetary policy will be ineffective this proposition will be referred to in this paper as the lucas sargent proposition the lsp fischer 6 showed however that if wages are assumed to adjust sluggishly systematic monetary policy can be effective the same conclusion was also reached by phelps and taylor 15 who assumed that the prices set by the firms are based on the expected price level and are sticky the assumption of perfect price flexibility appeared to be crucial for the validity of the lsp since the empirical relevance of perfect price flexibility has long been seriously questioned 2 the practical importance of lsp seemed to be undermined thus modigliani 13 in his presidential address to the american economic association explicitly rejected the importance of the lsp and argued for an active stabilization policy mccallum 10 has introduced price level stickiness into a model similar to the one used by sargent and wallace he concluded that recognition of price level stickiness does not in and of itself negate the lucas sargent proposition in a recent paper in this jouinal mccallum 11 has attempted to establish the basic compatibility of sluggish price adjustments and the lsp in another paper he modified and extended this analysis to include the effects of oligopolistic pricing behavior on the validity of the lsp 12 he again concluded that the failure of the lsp does not result because of markup pricing and sluggish adjustments these

monetary disturbances inventory fluctations and the level of sales a theoretical and empirical analysis there has in the past several years been a revival of interest in the topic of inventory fluctuation and its relationship to the short run dynamics of output one important reason for this interest can be traced to the pioneering work on aggregate supply begun by lucas 11 12 and extended among many others by barro 3 4 in their models the behavior of output is driven by intertemporal considerations it is a natural extension of such models if output is storable to consider the implication of producers whose current output can either be sold immediately or held in stock for future sales current sales by the same token may be either current production or goods from inventory in a recent paper blinder and fischet 6 develop such a model using it they demonstrate that inventory dynamics can be an explanation for an empirical weakness of simple versions of the lucas type models real world business cycles are characterized by considerable persistence simple equilibrium business cycle models do not exhibit such persistence or in some cases it is present only through the ad hoc presence of a lagged output term in the aggregate supply function except for the influence of inventories producers in the blinder fischer analysis behave as do producers in most new classical macro models they are price takers and quantity setters in a model where inventories exert an influence on output decisions such neoclassical behavior cannot be ascribed to perfectly competitive conditions if firms are perfect competitors output decisions will not reflect the state of current inventories

rational expectations and the smoothing properties of inventories of finished goods abstract this paper formulates and estimates a dynamic rational expectations equilibrium model of inventories of finished goods and employment of labor the view that the primary role of inventories of finished goods is to act as a buffer stock in the face of fluctuating demand is examined both the model and estimation results indicate that this is the case because of differences in the costs involved for firms in changing their inventory stocks and labor force in addition to providing some new evidence on the behavior of inventories of finished goods and employment the paper illustrates a technology for maximum likelihood estimation of structural parameters under the hypothesis of rational expectations

information persistence and real business cycles abstract this paper simulates the behavior of output in a new classical macroeconomic model in which agents never observe truly exogenous shocks the key conclusions are twofold first since agents only observe endogenous variables the rational expectations are computed using kalman filtering expectational errors are therefore serially correlated inducing autocorrelation in output and employment second observed innovations in the real money stock affect output since the innovations are correlated with the unobserved real shocks

money supply variability in a macro model of monopolistic competition the effects of changes in money supply variability are examined for a macro model of monopolistic competition increases in money supply variability raise demand uncertainty causing individual firms to produce more for inventory in addition expected profits decrease inducing a number of firms to leave the economy aggregate income then falls in spite of an increase in firm level production the result on aggregate income is standard but the results on inventories and the number of firms in the economy distinguish this monopolistic macro model empirically from conventional macro models when changes in money supply variability occur

rational expectations and the effectiveness of monetary policy with special reference to the barro fischer model abstract monetary policy is sometimes alleged to be ineffective when the rational expectations hypothesis is imposed on macroeconomic models barro and fischer 1976 once presented in this journal a simple macroeconomic model in order to explain such a claim however their conclusion depends on a specific rule employed for the future course of money supply it is shown that their model embodies an important factor which generally renders monetary policies effective rational expectations notwithstanding it is suggested that this property also holds in more general macroeconomic frameworks

the neutrality of systematic monetary policy in models with a disequilibrium price level abstract a condition is offered which is necessary and sufficient for the neutrality of aggregate output and the real rate of interest with respect to systematic monetary policy in a general class of stochastic macroeconomic models with rational expectations additive disturbances lagged information and a disequilibrium price sequence

an open access fishery with rational expectations explain the evolution of the fish stock and the boat fleet as well as determine their equilibrium levels 2 while the changes in the fish stock are described by a biological rule entry and exit from the fishing industry are determined by how expectations are formed we examine a general model in which entry and exit are proportional to the present value of expected profits and compare two special cases of adaptive myopic expectations and rational expectations although both expectations mechanisms lead to the same equilibrium values they lead to different adjustment paths where expectations solely depend on current values myopic expectations it is well known that boats enter the fishery only when the fish stock is greater than its steady state stock 3 with rational expectations however boats may enter when the fish stock is much lower than its steady state value provided the boat fleet is sufficiently small this difference in adjustment is observable and in principle leads to an obvious test on how agents form expectations section 2 develops a general dynamic model for studying fisheries in section 3 we show that the model standardly used in the literature is equivalent to a myopic adaptive expectations model a rational expectations model is analyzed in section 4 the standard and rational expectations models are compared in section 5 section 6 illustrates this comparison using a simulation based on a schaefer model of the pacific halibut fishery section 7 presents the conclusions

contribution of aggregate and sectoral shocks to the dynamics of inventories an empirical study with french and american data the aim of this paper is the identification of structural shocks which affect the dynamics of sectoral inventories through an analysis of the forecasting error variance decomposition this identification is achieved using the american and french time series of aggregate production sectoral production and sectoral inventories the results are similar for both countries aggregate production is mainly lead by aggregate shocks the sources of fluctuations in sectoral time series change with time first the idiosyncratic supply shock is dominant in the short run of sectoral production then aggregate shocks become significant conversely sectoral inventories are influenced in the short run by the idiosyncratic demand shock and in the long run by the supply shock

london s rise as an offshore rmb financial centre state finance relations and selective institutional adaptation abstractlondon s rise as an offshore rmb financial centre state finance relations and selective institutional adaptation regional studies china s currency the renminbi rmb is increasingly important in global financial markets facilitated by the global expansion of offshore rmb centres this paper examines london s development as the first western offshore rmb centre established in 2013 drawing on original research conducted between 2013 and 2015 in london and china the longitudinal analysis reveals that the development of rmb finance in london is characterized by selective adaptation in which state private bargaining dynamics have shifted from strategic alignment to a bifurcation of interests understanding these state finance relations has important implications for research and policy making concerned with offshore financial centres and rmb internationalization

the neutrality and optimality of counter cyclical monetary policy in equilibrium models with a wealth effect a condition is offered which is both necessary and sufficient for the counter cyclical neutrality of all linear monetary feedback rules with respect to deviations in real market output in that class of stochastic macro economic models with rational expectations additive disturbances multiple markets and a wealth effect on excess commodity demand studied by barro 1976 barro and fischer 1976 king 1982 asako 1982 waldo 1982 and marini 1985 the condition has the form of a constraint on the values of the control parameters of a general monetary feedback rule that includes all other linear feedback rules in this class of models as special cases when the selection of parameters violates this constraint prospective monetary feedback can completely stabilize deviations in real market output around its natural rate without sustained inflation la neutralite et loptimalite de la politique monetaire dans des modcles d equilibre quand un effet de richesse existe on propose une condition necessaire et suffisante pour assurer la neutralite contre cyclique de toutes les regles de retroaction mon6taires lin6aires pour ce qui est des deviations dans le niveau de produit r6el dans cette classe de modeles macro economiques stochastiques avec anticipations rationnelles chocs additifs marches multiples et un effet de richesse sur la demande exc6dentaire de biens tels qu etudies par barro 1976 barro fischer 1976 king 1982 asako 1982 waldo 1982 et marini 1985 cette condition prend la forme d une contrainte sur les valeurs des parametres de controle d une regle mon6taire generale de retroaction dont toutes les autres regles mon6taires lineaires dans cette classe de modele ne sont que des cas particuliers quand la s6lection des parametres ne satisfait pas cette contrainte la retroaction mon6taire prospective peut stabiliser completement les deviations du produit reel autour de son taux naturel sans engendrer une inflation soutenue i would like to thank jim brander ed burmeister john b carlson marsha courchane mike devereux ian domowitz jim glassman craig hakkio stephen r g jones woo sik jung doug mctaggart keizo nagatani doug pearce steve poloz neil raymon stan reynolds john seater shinichi watanabe de mmn wu two anonymous referees and seminar participants at the 1986 canadian economic association meetings the 1986 north american summer meetings of the econometric society the system committee on financial canadian journal of economics revue canadienne d economique xx no 3 august aouit 1987 printed in canada imprime au canada 0008 4085 87 612 624 1 50 canadian economics association this content downloaded from 207 46 13 52 on fri 21 oct 2016 05 54 00 utc all use subject to http about jstor org terms neutrality and optimality 613

time series representations of economic variables and alternative models of the labour market accepting the hypothesis that the time series facts of the aggregate labour market may be summarized by the linear autoregressive and moving average representations of wages prices unemployment and interest rates implies that a useful theory ought to lead to predictions about these representations following this approach this paper first catalogues many of the time series facts about the aggregate labour market and then compares them against alternative models of the labour market based on the intertemporal substitution and staggered contract hypotheses

a new econometric model of union threat effects the union threat effect is the propensity of non union employers to resist union organization by raising wages this study introduces an empirical model of the non union employer s optimal wage in the presence of threat effects estimates of an equation of a firm s unionization probability provide key variables unlike previous models this specification dervies directly from a theoritical model separstes threat effects from the influence of other union non union spillovers and efficiency wages and includes many factors affecting the probability of unionization wage equation estimates reveal that the predicted threat of unionization did not significantly raise non union wages in the united states in 1980

a unified framework for monetary theory and policy analysis search theoretic models of monetary exchange are based on explicit descriptions of the frictions that make money essential however tractable versions of these models typically make strong assumptions that render them ill suited for monetary policy analysis we propose a new framework based on explicit micro foundations within which macro policy can be studied the framework is analytically tractable and easily quantifiable we calibrate the model to standard observations and use it to measure the cost of inflation we find that going from 10 percent to 0 percent inflation is worth between 3 and 5 percent of consumption much higher than previous estimates

the production smoothing model of inventories revisited an error correction specification which nests the linear quadratic production smoothing and stock adjustment models of inventories is estimated on u s seasonally adjusted two digit sic data the restrictions of the general model to the production smoothing specification is accepted for four out of six of the production to stock industries and for total nondurables the estimation results do not suggest any use of inventories to smooth the level of production but there is evidence of smoothing of the rate of change of production for three production to stock industries and for both total nondurables and total durables coefficient estimates may however be biased copyright 1994 by royal economic society

inventories rational expectations and economic activities abstract this paper examines the role of inventories when adjustments in output involve fixed employment costs such as hiring and training costs these costs force the firm to use inventories to stabilize output fluctuations contrary to the blinder fisher model unanticipated aggregate disturbances in the present model may have no subsequent impacts on the economy the exchange between mccallum and blinder frydman are also discussed in this context

seasonality in surveys a comparison of belgian french and german business tests abstract seasonal effects appear in qualitative responses of monthly business surveys the seasonal effects can be extracted like in regression or time series models via dummy variables in surveys however there is another route to extract the seasonal effects by incorporating questions on the questionnaires which force respondents to make a distinction between seasonal and cyclical effects it is shown in the paper that a comparison of these two approaches on theoretical grounds is inconclusive evidence from belgian french and german surveys is used to make a comparison the approach with survey based seasonal measures is found more desirable moreover the responses to the request to separate seasonal from cyclical effects seem to be fairly consistent

a contribution to the pure theory of money abstract this article analyzes a general equilibrium model with search frictions and differentiated commodities because of the many differentiated commodities barter is difficult in that it requires a double coincidence of wants and this provides a medium of exchange role for fiat currency we prove the existence of equilibrium with valued fiat money and show it is robust to certain changes in the environment rate of return dominance liquidity and the welfare implications of fiat money are discussed

incomplete record keeping and optimal payment arrangements abstract we study a random matching absence of double coincidence environment in which people cannot precommit and in which there are two imperfect ways to keep track of what other people have done in the past money and a public record of all past actions that is updated with an average lag we study how the magnitude of that lag affects the allocations that are optimal from among allocations that are stationary and feasible and that satisfy incentive constraints which arise from the absence of commitment and the imperfect ways of keeping track of what others have done in the past journal of economic literature classification numbers e40 c73 d82

government borrowing and tax adjusted real and nominal interest rates the purpose of this paper is to test for the effect of federal government budget deficits on one year tax adjusted nominal and real interest rates in an is lm as model the results suggest that the specification of the dependent variable is a crucial issue in the debate over the linkage between deficits and interest rates the evidence shows a positive and significant effect of various measures of the federal government deficit and debt on the real tax adjusted treasury bill rate in both the levels and the first differenced equations but not on the nominal tax adjusted rate the positive and significant deficit debt coefficients are also confirmed when the first differenced equation is estimated by instrumental variables and when the equation is estimated over various time periods thus there is robust evidence of a positive linkage between federal government borrowing and the tax adjusted real but not nominal interest rates

target buffer stocks the behaviour of a buffer stock holding firm facing stationary demand shocks is considered from the viewpoint of recent evidence on inventories and price setting attention is focussed on the responses of price and supply to changes in autonomous demand and compared with those of a nondurable producer the results conflict with recent theoretical work in providing support for a keynesian interpretation of inventory series

a theorem on policy neutrality this paper offers a general condition which resolves the debate over the neutrality of systematic monetary policy in linear macroeconomic models with non equilibrium prices and rational expectations as expressed in papers by gordon 1976 gordon 1977 modigliani 1977 fischer 1977 phelps and taylor 1977 fethke and policano 1979 fethke and policano 1981 mccallum 1977 mccallum 1978 mccallum 1979a mccallum 1979b mccallum 1980 and green and honkapohja 1983 the policy neutrality theorem states that a non equilibrium price function will preserve the neutrality of monetary feedback with respect to exchange in a representative macroeconomic model if and only if the difference between the conditionally expected values of the equilibrium and non equilibrium prices is independent of monetary feedback in each period the policy neutrality results of mccallum 1977 mccallum 1978 mccallum 1979b and the policy effectiveness results of fischer 1977 phelps and taylor 1977 fethke and policano 1979 fethke and policano 1981 are analyzed in terms of the theorem

on the welfare properties of fractional reserve banking monetary economists have long recognized a tension between the benefits of fractional reserve banking such as the ability to undertake more profitable long term investment opportunities and the difficulties associated with it such as the risk of insolvency for each bank and the associated losses to bank liability holders i show that a specific banking arrangement a joint liability scheme provides an effective mechanism for ensuring the ex post transfer of reserves from liquid banks to illiquid banks so it is possible to select a socially efficient reserve ratio in the banking system that preserves the safety of bank liabilities as a store of value and maximizes the rate of return paid to bank liability holders

on the private provision of fiat currency this paper considers whether fiat money can be provided by a revenue maximizing monopolist in an environment where money is essential two questions arise concerning the private supply of money is it feasible and is it optimal concerning the feasibility question i show that the revenue maximizing policy is time consistent if the trading history of the issuer is public information and if money demanders respond to the revelation of defection by playing autarky concerning the optimality question the model suggests that any private organization of the market for fiat currency is suboptimal

money is memory abstract this paper examines the sets of feasible allocations in a large class of economic environments in which commitment is impossible following myerson 8 the standard definition of feasibility is adapted to take account of the lack of commitment the environments feature either memory or money memory is defined as knowledge on the part of an agent of the full histories of all agents with whom he has had direct or indirect contact in the past money is defined as an object that does not enter utility or production functions and is available in fixed supply the main proposition is that any allocation that is feasible in an environment with money is also feasible in the same environment with memory depending on the environment the converse may or may not be true hence from a technological point of view money is equivalent to a primitive form of memory journal of economic literature classification numbers e40 c73 d82

real wages and the business cycle the objectives of this review are threefold 1 to characterize the empirical literature on the cyclical behavior of real wages 2 to identify the sources of the differences in results across studies and 3 to enumerate key factors that determine the cyclicality of real wages given a host of measurement and methodological issues drawing firm conclusions is difficult but several generalizations can be made the estimated cyclicality of real wages depends crucially on the time period of analysis and the choice of whether to examine the production or the consumption wage composition effects play an important but complicated role as well

the stylized facts about the behavior of manufacturers inventories and backorders over the business cycle 1959 1980 recent theoretical work has highlighted the role of inventories in propagating business cycles this paper attempts to provide an empirical foundation for current and future research on the role inventories play in business cycles the evidence presented here indicates that inventories and backorders are major variables in predicting output fluctuations further the evidence is that disaggregating inventories by stage of fabrication is important in predicting output in concert with previous findings our results suggest that disaggregated inventories ought to be a component of models of the business cycle

the transition from barter to fiat money how did it become possible to exchange apparently valueless pieces of paper for goods this paper provides an equilibrium account of the transition between barter and fiat money regimes the explanation relies on the intervention of a self interested government that must be able to promise credibly to limit the issue of money to achieve credibility the government must offset the benefits of seigniorage by internalizing some of the macroeconomic externalities generated by the issue of fiat money the government s patience and the extent of its involvement in the economy are key determinants of whether the transition can be accomplished copyright 1995 by american economic association

strategic complementarity slows macroeconomic adjustment to temporary shocks i introduction starting with the work of diamond 1982 hart 1982 and bryant 1983 a number of authors have employed models which use potential coordination failure to show that many features of the keynesian framework can be captured in models consistent with the microfoundations approach 1 for example in the context of a search model diamond demonstrates the existence of equilibria with too low a level of aggregative activity hart captures this feature and the simultaneous existence of multipliers in a model of monopolistic competition while technological interactions are the crucial element of bryant s analysis one reason to refer to these seemingly diverse set of papers as a single literature is that all the models are in fact driven by the presence of the same factor strategic complementarity a macroeconomic model which exhibits strategic complementarity is simply one where the larger is aggregate production the larger is the incentive for any particular agent to produce cooper and john 1988 first demonstrated that the presence of strategic complementarity is a characteristic of all of the models mentioned above and persuasively argue that this is the critical feature which lies behind the finding of keynesian type results in this paper we argue that strategic complementarity is also important in understanding the dynamic response of economies to temporary shocks in particular we find that strategic complementarity is potentially an important factor in understanding why an economy may return only slowly to steady state behavior after a temporary shock that is given the presence of any of a variety of factors which would cause the economy not to instantaneously return to full employment after a temporary shock e g adjustment costs associated with changing the capital stock the speed with which the economy returns to steady state behavior is negatively related to the degree of strategic complementarity in the environment related analyses are those of haltiwanger and waldman 1989 bomfim and diebold 1992 and baxter and king 1990 the first two papers consider models wherein some agents are characterized by adaptive or regressive expectations while others am characterized by rational expectations among other findings these analyses demonstrate that the speed with which the economy returns to steady state behavior after a temporary shock is negatively related to the degree of strategic complementarity in the economy 2 we argue that the relationship between strategic complementarity and the dynamic response to temporary shocks is more general than is suggested by these papers in their analyses temporary shocks have long term effects because some of the agents make systematic mistakes when forming expectations here it is argued that given any of a variety of factors which would cause temporary shocks to have long term effects there is a negative relationship between adjustment speed and the degree of strategic complementarity baxter and king consider a world where because of productive externalities the economy exhibits increasing returns at the economy wide level using simulation techniques they show first that the presence of increasing returns serves to increase the output volatility exhibited by the economy in response to shocks and second that after a one time shock the return to steady state behavior is slower in a world characterized by increasing returns baxter and king do not discuss their results in terms of strategic complementarity however it is easy to show that one way of introducing strategic complementarity is to assume that the economy exhibits increasing returns at the economy wide level our paper suggests that what is central in baxter and king s study is not the introduction of increasing returns per se but rather that the introduction of increasing returns is one way of introducing strategic complementarity that is baxter and king s findings can be thought of as a manifestation of the central point of the current paper

tests of a rational expectations structural neutrality model with persistent effects of monetary disturbances abstract this paper describes tests of a rational expectations structural neutrality resn model capable of accounting for the persistent effects of aggregate demand shocks the model imposes the identifying restriction that only contemporaneous shocks to aggregate demand affect a vector stochastic process of highly cyclic real variables tests are performed using a well known measure of unanticipated monetary change as the demand disturbance the results suggest that resn models observationally inequivalent from keynesian models can be constructed in such a way as to account for observable relationships between monetary and real variables

money and inventories in an economy with uncertain and sequential trade abstract we propose a model in which an unanticipated reduction in the money supply leads to a contemporaneous increase in inventories followed by periods with lower output this persistent real effect does not require price rigidities or real shocks and confusion it is obtained in a model of uncertain and sequential trade in which markets are cleared and agents are price takers

real business cycles and the lucas paradigm when the lucas paradigm is generalized to include real effects the effects of real factors and monetary factors on the business cycle are always interrelated furthermore in such models monetary factors can affect the long run behavior of real output contrary to the commonly held view that they cannot real business cycle models and lucas type models are different paradigms but not in the sense of real versus monetary rather interrelationships between real and monetary factors are intrinsic to the lucas paradigm whereas the real business cycle literature implies a dichotomy between real and monetary factors

backward and forward solutions for economies with rational expectations in models where anticipations of future endogenous variables influence current behavior there exists an infinity of solutions under the assumption of rational expectations this problem has been dealt with in the study of macro economic models by the implicit or explicit use of one of three additional requirements optimality consistency with alleged economic behavior or conformity of the endogenous variables to an imposed stationarity condition these requirements have coincided in existing models leading to the choice of a unique solution a forward solution the purpose of this paper is to review the problem characterize the solutions and examine whether these requirements are acceptable section i presents a simple model and derives the set of solutions the model makes no claim to generality but has the major advantage that the issues are easily understood in this simple case section ii discusses the requirement of consistency with economic behavior section iii discusses the requirement of stationarity and section iv provides some conclusions