determinants of trade costs and trade growth accounting between india and the european union during 1995 2010 this study aimed to utilise the micro founded measure of trade cost derived by novy to estimate the relative bilateral trade costs of india with its european union partners the advantage of using such a model is that the trade costs can be derived entirely using observable trade data the results show that indian tariff equivalent with its major eu trading partners has declined by 20 percentage points between 1995 and 2010 with malta and latvia experiencing the greatest decline the study then decomposes the bilateral trade growth to ascertain whether it is an outcome of increased domestic production or reduction in bilateral and multilateral trade barriers novy s model indicates that the decline in relative bilateral trade costs explains the greatest percentage of this trade growth which is partially offset by decline in multilateral resistance terms that has diverted trade away to other trading partners primarily in south and south east asia and north america

basket cases tax incentives and international joint venture participation by american multinational firms abstract this paper examines the impact of the u s tax reform act of 1986 tra on international joint ventures by american firms the tra mandates the use of separate baskets in calculating foreign tax credits on dividends received from each foreign corporation owned 50 or less by americans which greatly reduces the attractiveness of joint ventures especially those in low tax foreign countries since the effect of the tra on joint ventures varies with foreign tax rates the country level pattern of subsequent joint venture activity illustrates the sensitivity of organizational form to tax considerations the evidence indicates that american participation in international joint ventures fell sharply after 1986 particularly in low tax countries moreover joint ventures in low tax countries use more debt and pay greater royalties to their american parents after 1986 reflecting their incentives to economize on dividend payments

operating flexibility global manufacturing and the option value of a multinational network the multinational corporation is a network of activities located in different countries the value of this network derives from the opportunity to benefit from uncertainty through the coordination of subsidiaries which are geographically dispersed we model this coordination as the operating flexibility to shift production between two manufacturing plants located in different countries a stochastic dynamic programming model treats explicitly this flexibility as equivalent to owning an option the value of which is dependent upon the real exchange rate the model is extended to analyze hysteresis effects and within country growth options we show that the management of across border coordination has led to changes in the heuristic rules used for performance evaluation and transfer pricing

no price like home global house prices 1870 2012 how have house prices evolved in the long run this paper presents annual house price indices for 14 advanced economies since 1870 based on extensive data collection we are able to show for the first time that house prices in most industrial economies stayed constant in real terms from the 19th to the mid 20th century but rose sharply in recent decades land prices not construction costs hold the key to understanding the trajectory of house prices in the long run residential land prices have surged in the second half of the 20th century but did not increase meaningfully before we argue that before world war ii dramatic reductions in transport costs expanded the supply of land and suppressed land prices since the mid 20th century comparably large land augmenting reductions in transport costs no longer occurred increased regulations on land use further inhibited the utilization of additional land while rising expenditure shares for housing services increased demand

real exchange rates and time varying trade costs this paper re examines the empirical modeling of purchasing power parity ppp deviations in the presence of commodity market frictions first we show that a specific type of smooth transition models can closely approximate the functional form of the theoretical adjustment mechanism derived by dumas 1992 dynamic equilibrium and the real exchange rate in a spatially separated world review of financial studies 5 2153 180 for the case of constant as well as changing trade costs second we develop for the first time an empirical model of the real exchange rate which allows for changes in the degree of market integration by employing a long span of data on the dollar sterling real exchange rate and a micro founded proxy for trade frictions we provide novel evidence of a significant relationship between the persistence of the real exchange rate and the level of trade costs this finding suggests that both the difficulty of detecting ppp and the extend of rogoff s puzzle vary over time with the degree of trade restrictiveness finally we highlight policy repercussions of our results

comment on trade integration in colombia a dynamic general equilibrium study with new exporter dynamics abstract this paper provides a series of comments aimed mainly at addressing the empirical relevance of the proposed interpretation of the mechanism and partly at considering the possible interaction between the trade and labor market reforms that took place in colombia in the same period in particular it first highlights the stylized facts about colombian exports and exporters that the model aims to theoretically reconcile and i briefly summarize the mechanism proposed in the microeconomic block of the theory next it focuses on two crucial assumptions made in the model it proposes a complementary way of presenting the mechanism and proposes ways to evaluate the empirical relevance on the competing interpretations finally it focuses on the broader economic and institutional background characterizing colombia in the early nineties and highlights the possibility that other reforms taking place in the same years may have interacted with trade liberalization in shaping firms distribution and export dynamics as well as welfare

what separates us sources of resistance to globalization with increasing sophistication economists have been estimating gravity equations for five decades robust evidence shows that borders and distance impede trade by much more than tariffs or transports costs can explain we therefore advocate investigation of other sources of resistance despite the greater difficult involved in measuring and modelling them from our selective review of recent findings a unifying explanation emerges a legacy of historical isolation and conflict forged a world economy in which neither tastes nor information are homogeneously distributed cultural difference and inadequate information manifest themselves most strongly at national borders and over distance

nonverifiability noncontractibility and ownership determination models in foreign direct investment with an application to foreign operations in japan abstract firms intangible assets are important inputs for their foreign operations inputs of intangible assets and the resulting output are often not contractible in that neither precise use of such inputs nor potential products which can be produced by taking advantage of such inputs can be completely delineated in a contract where such incomplete contracts prevail control of residual rights becomes essential for protecting firms intangible assets ownership is often used to control residual rights in international operations in this paper we present a few interrelated models of ownership determination for firms international operations we show that a firm s ownership share in its foreign operation reflects the importance of the firm s intangible assets used in the operation and the resulting bargaining power relative to its local partners we test our theoretical implications using data on foreign firms manufacturing operations located in japan our empirical results are consistent with theoretical predictions

globesity the effects of globalization on obesity and caloric intake abstract we examine the effect of globalization in its economic and social dimensions on obesity and caloric intake namely the so called globesity hypothesis our results suggest a robust association between globalization and both obesity and caloric intake a one standard deviation increase in globalization is associated with a 23 8 percent increase in obese population and a 4 3 percent rise in calorie intake the effect remains statistically significant even after using an instrumental variable strategy to correct for some possible reverse causality and ommited variable bias a lagged structure and corrections for panel standard errors however we find that the primary driver of the globesity phenomenon is the social rather than the economic dimension of globalization and specifically the effect of changes in information flows and social proximity on obesity a one standard deviation increase in social globalization increased the percentage of obese population by 13 7 percent

real investment decisions under adjustment costs and asymmetric information abstract we study the cost of adjustment model of investment when there is asymmetry of information between owners the principal and managers the agent information asymmetry distorts the relationship between investment and the cost of capital for all agent types and a regime of inaction appears over a certain cost range in an observationally different way than when fixed adjustment costs or irreversibilities cause a similar phenomenon uncertainty in the form of an increase in the spread of agents types tends to reduce investment despite symmetric adjustment cost and perfect competition the model gives a new interpretation of tobin s q under asymmetric information explaining some results of the mergers and acquisition literature

international business alliance under asymmetric information technology vis a vis information advantage author affiliation chifeng dai daic siu edusajal lahiri lahiri siu edu corresponding author acknowledgment we are grateful to two anonymous referees for extremely helpful comments and suggestions 1 introductioninternational inter firm business cooperation as a means to reach a foreign marketplace has been rapidly increasing in popularity and has been growing hand in hand with the overall process of globalization business collaborations in general take different forms licensing franchising and joint venture jv are two important forms of this collaboration the exact nature of the contract between firms can also take different forms involving one or more of the following up front licensing fees equity investments annual maintenance fees milestone payments and royalties 1 for example under the jv agreement between generex biotechnology canada and sejong capital korea sejong agrees to invest 25 million in the jv as a non refundable license fee paid to generex and to purchase 5 million of generex s equity under the jv agreement between cambridge biostability united kingdom and panacea biotec india panacea purchased 1 935 million of cambridge s equity up front and signed a long term licensing agreement that provides gross royalty income to cambridge over the agreement period 2apart from the contractual arrangements another important issue in international business cooperation is the question of transfer or adaptation of technology for the international alliance ia and this has received a lot of attention in the literature see for example katz rebentisch and allen 1996 it is generally agreed that the technology adaptation issue is a rather complicated engineering and economic issue and often requires significant efforts there are four broad research questions here first why do firms from developing and industrialized countries form an alliance miller et al 1997 studied 76 ias in six developing countries they found that more than 65 of the foreign companies chose domestic partners because of their knowledge of local politics government regulations local custom and local markets and more than 70 of the domestic firms in developing countries sought collaboration with multinationals based on their superior technology the second question involves why ias have diverse contractual arrangements the third question involves how each firm s advantage and disadvantage in technology and market information affect their profits in ias do firms in the alliance always prefer more market information and better technology the final question has to do with whether technology spillover hinders the formation of an ia 3in order to answer some of the research questions outlined above we consider a simple model consisting of two firms a multinational corporation mnc and a domestic firm the firms operate under uncertain market demand the mnc possesses a production technology that is superior to that of the domestic firm however the domestic firm has an information advantage in the sense that with costly and non contractable efforts it can predict demand conditions with some probability we start with the case in which the credit market is perfect and the technology adaptation in the ia is exogenous and costless we show that in the ia the mnc optimally charges the domestic firm a lump sum payment but offers it the entire profits of the ia under the contractual arrangement market uncertainty and the domestic firm s ability to gather information increase the domestic firm s profits but not the mnc s profits in ia however the mnc prefers duopoly competition to ia if the technology adaptation is imperfect and the domestic firm s production technology is exceedingly inferior we then deviate from the benchmark case in two different directions but one at a time

the welfare cost of lawlessness evidence from somali piracy in spite of general agreement that establishing the rule of law is central to properly functioning economies little is known about the cost of law and order breakdowns this paper studies a specific context of this by estimating the effect of somali piracy attacks on shipping costs using data on shipping contracts in the dry bulk market to estimate the effect of piracy we look at shipping routes whose shortest path exposes them to piracy and find that the increase in attacks in 2008 led to around an 8 to 12 increase in costs from this we calculate the welfare loss imposed by piracy we estimate that generating around 120 usd million of revenue for somali pirates led to a welfare loss in excess of 630 usd million making piracy an expensive way of making transfers

hedging price volatility using fast transport abstract purchasing goods from distant locations introduces a significant lag between when a product is shipped and when it arrives these transit lags are trade barriers for firms facing volatile demand who must place orders before knowing the resolution of demand uncertainty we provide a model in which airplanes bring producers and consumers together in time fast transport allows firms to respond quickly to favorable demand realizations and to limit the risk of unprofitably large quantities during low demand periods the model predicts that the likelihood and extent to which firms employ air shipments is increasing in the volatility of demand they face decreasing in the air premium they must pay and increasing in the contemporaneous realization of demand we confirm all three conjectures using detailed us import data fast transport thus provides firms with a real option to smooth demand volatility on international markets and we provide simple calculations of that option value this enables us to identify how the option value relates to goods characteristics and to changes in air transport premia associated with technological and policy change including the introduction of jet engines and liberalization of trade in air services

globalisation and the spatial concentration of production new trade theory models predict that freer trade increases the spatial concentration of industrial production across countries while nations with large home markets and central geographical location become increasingly attractive business locations small peripheral countries gradually deindustrialize using data for 26 industries 20 oecd countries and 20 years we investigate the empirical validity of this claim separating out the role of home market size from geographical factors and using various panel methods we find robust evidence in line with theory freer trade has indeed magnified the importance of domestic demand and geographical location for the pattern of industrial production across the globeand has therefore exacerbated spatial disparities

optimal financial policy and firm valuation since the classic work of miller and modigliani 1961 laid down the principles for the valuation of firms under conditions of certainty some two decades ago academic interest in the problem of valuing the individual firm has waned yet in addition to the obvious importance of this problem for security analysts investors and acquirers of corporations the issue of firm valuation is fundamental to much of the theory of corporate finance what determines the risk of the firm how the rate of return required by investors may be inferred from capital market data the influence of financing policy on firm value and other issues of central concern to the theory of financial management this almost total neglect of firm valuation is attributable perhaps to the overwhelming influence of the research programme initiated by the development of the capital asset pricing model only three years after the publication of the above mentioned paper by miller and modigliani in its primary form the capital asset pricing model is a statement about the equilibrium rates of return on securities rather than about the equilibrium values of securities it is straightforward to transform the model into a statement about the dependence of current equilibrium values upon an exogenously specified distribution of end of period values however in this form the model is inherently unsatisfactory since it fails to take account of the fact that in reality the distribution of end of period firm values is not exogenously given but is determined as part of a subsequent capital market equilibrium attempts to iterate the single period capital asset pricing model over several periods in order to avoid the need to take the distribution future security values as exogenous have been unsuccessful for the most part since not being able to derive they have been forced to assume both the requisite normality of the distribution of subsequent security prices and the legitimacy of ignoring endogenously determined shifts in the individual investor s investment

rising trade costs agglomeration and trade with endogenous transaction costs while transport costs have fallen the empirical evidence also points at rising total trade costs in a model of industry location with endogenous transaction costs that seeks to replicate features from the machinery industry we show how and under which conditions a decline in transport costs can lead to an increase in the total cost of trade the subtle relationship between endogenous transport costs and the sensitivity of trade

shipping the good horses out this paper formalizes the alchian allen 1964 theorem within a vertically differentiated goods general equilibrium model in contrast to the existing literature equilibrium prices depends on the transportation cost it shows that the eect of a xed transportation cost regardless of quality tilts the importing region s demand towards the consumption of higher quality goods the model extends the alchian allen theorem by showing that the strength of this eect depends on the importing region s endowment specically if the importing region is endowed with the imported goods of similar quality mix the eect is even stronger we also show that the importing region s market size and preferences matter to the strength of the eect using auction data of australian thoroughbred yearlings we conrm that better horses are shipped out further furthermore consistent with the model s prediction the strength of the alchian allen eect depends on the endowment of the importing regions

collective bargaining and the interindustry wage structure international evidence this paper studies collective bargaining and industry wage levels using microdata and quantile regression techniques for the united states britain west germany austria sweden and norway for the 1980s the united states has higher industry wage differentials and union wage effects than other countries with particularly large impacts at the bottom of the distribution european wage structures are more compressed at the bottom for both nonunion and union workers relative to the united states with larger differences for nonunion workers these findings suggest more coordination contract extension and spillover to nonunion workers and more binding industry wage floors outside the united states

cabotage sabotage the curious case of the jones act abstract this paper examines the economic implications of the jones act which restricts domestic waterborne shipments to american vessels since the passage of this cabotage law a century ago a plausibly exogenous rise in foreign competition has contributed to the closure of most american shipyards and to a decline in american built ships thus the jones act requirements have become more onerous over time the results show that domestic shipments are less likely to be transported via water than imports of the same good into the same state exploiting the decline in jones act eligible vessels over time additional results show that this cabotage law has disproportionately decreased domestic water trade especially in coastal states these findings support common but to date unverified claims that the jones act impedes domestic trade

commodity storage and the market effects of biofuel policies the author 2016 legislation passed in 2007 by the u s congress increased by about 1 3 billion bushels the net amount of corn required to be processed annually into ethanol for motor fuel use we estimate that corn prices were about 30 higher from 2006 to 2014 than they would have been without this demand increase we develop a partially identified structural vector autoregression model our identification strategy is unique in the literature because it enables us to estimate the effects of transitory shocks such as weather separately from the effects of persistent shocks such as the increased ethanol mandate moreover by only partially identifying our model we show how to generate robust conclusions without strong identifying assumptions

distance time and specialization lean retailing in general equilibrium transport time increases with distance traveled and time is valuable we show the implications of these facts for global specialization and trade products where timely delivery is important will be produced near the source of final demand where wages will be higher as a result in the model timely delivery is important because it allows retailers to respond to final demand fluctuations without holding costly inventories and timely delivery is possible only from nearby locations using a unique dataset that allows us to measure the retail demand for timely delivery we show that the sources of u s apparel imports have shifted in the way predicted by the model with products for which timeliness matters increasingly imported from nearby countries jel f1 transporting goods and people costs time and money and both transport fees and time in transit generally increase with the distance traveled these facts imply an incentive to economize on distance and the equilibrium effects

multinational investment under uncertainty in the chemical processing industries this study uses a sample of chemical processing industries to evaluate the effect of two types of uncertainty on the decision to invest in an industry it analyzes the effects of relative price uncertainty through exchange rates and input prices and demand uncertainty on the probability of expansion in a particular country the study then focuses on the behavior of individual companies and distinguishes companies by whether or not they are multinationals in the production of the product the results confirm previous evidence that exchange rate uncertainty has a negative effect on capacity expansions by domestic corporations and no effect on investment by multinational corporations finally the study also shows that expansions of production capacity in this industry are more likely to occur in those countries where capacity utilization is higher

the economics of joint ventures in less developed countries the paper examines the microeconomic partial equilibrium behavior of joint ventures established between transnational corporations and domestic partners in less developed countries it focuses on issues relating to resource allocation and profit distribution under various institutional scenarios the analysis places special emphasis on the role of bargaining power transfer pricing stock ownership and profit shares of the parties and the responsiveness of joint ventures to national development goals some of the results apply to wholly owned subsidiaries of transnational corporations local firms and licensing arrangements which emerge as special cases

what goes around comes around export enhancing effects of import tariff reductions abstract in international trade transportation requires a round trip for which a transport firm has to commit to shipping capacity that is sufficient to meet the maximum shipping volume this may cause the backhaul problem trade theory suggests that facing the problem transport firms with market power adjust their freight rates strategically when import tariffs change as a consequence a country reducing its import tariffs may experience an increase in exports as well as imports using worldwide data covering 1995 2007 we find evidence that supports these predictions a 1 reduction in an importer s tariffs increases the import freight rates by around 0 8 decreases the export freight rates by around 1 1 and increases the export quantity by 0 6 to 1 these findings indicate a new mechanism through which import tariff reductions lead to export expansions

trade and climate policies do emissions from international transport matter this paper provides orders of magnitude of the importance of co2 emissions from international transport freight activities under a variety of scenarios regarding trade and climate policies it is based on a stylized multi region multi sector cge model that includes the four modes of international transport air water road and rail and where choices regarding the energy mix and transport mode have been endogeneized a separate decomposition of emission changes into the well known scale composition and technique effects is provided scale effects turn out to be roughly double in international transport than in exports while technique effects are weaker due to less substitutability between energy inputs as a result international transport represents half of the world increase in global emissions when trade liberalization is considered isolately when trade liberalization is coupled with a carbon tax limited to rich countries international transport represents roughly one eigth of the carbon leakage effect

rules of origin and the profitability of trade deflection abstract when a country grants preferential tariffs to another either reciprocally in a free trade agreement fta or unilaterally rules of origin roos are defined to determine whether a product is eligible for preferential treatment roos exist to avoid that exports from third countries enter through the member with the lowest tariff trade deflection however roos distort exporters sourcing decisions and burden them with red tape using a global data set we show that for 86 of all bilateral product level comparisons within ftas trade deflection is not profitable because external tariffs are rather similar and transportation costs are non negligible in the case of unilateral trade preferences extended by rich countries to poor ones that ratio is a striking 98 the pervasive and unconditional use of roos is therefore hard to rationalize

commodity trade and the carry trade a tale of two countries persistent interest rate differentials account for much of the currency carry trade profitability commodity currencies offer high interest rates on average while countries that export finished goods tend to have low interest rates we develop a general equilibrium model of international trade and currency pricing where countries have an advantage in producing either basic inputs or final goods in the model domestic production insulates commodity producing countries from global productivity shocks forcing final good producers to absorb them commodity currency exchange rates and risk premia increase with productivity differentials and trade frictions these predictions are strongly supported in the data this article is protected by copyright all rights reserved

host country policy transfer pricing and ownership distribution in international joint ventures a theoretical analysis abstract this paper develops a simple model of an international joint venture in which the ownership shares are endogenously determined as the outcome of nash bargaining between a multinational firm and a host firm it shows how tax subsidy policy by the host country s government and transfer pricing of inputs by the multinational firm may influence the equity distribution of the joint venture insofar as the optimal level of these policies is dependent on the primitives the model generates empirical hypotheses regarding the impact of the primitives on the equity distribution

estimating the effects of the container revolution on world trade many historical accounts have asserted that containerization triggered complementary technological and organizational changes that revolutionized global freight transport we are the first to suggest an identification strategy for estimating the effects of the container revolution on world trade our empirical strategy exploits time and cross sectional variation in countries first adoption of container facilities and combines it with product level variation in containerizability and container usage applying our container variables on a large panel of product level trade flows for the period 1962 1990 our estimates suggest economically large concurrent and cumulative effects of containerization and lend support for the view of containerization being a driver of 20th century economic globalization

global strategy and multinationals entry mode choice this paper makes a case directed towards establishing the importance of global strategic considerations in choosing multinationals entry mode specifically it is our contention that beyond the environmental and transaction specific factors well established in the literature to affect the entry mode decision we should also consider the strategic relationship a multinational envisages between its operations across borders in reaching this decision after incorporating various global strategic variables into an eclectic framework of the factors influencing the entry mode choice this paper tests both the validity of the overall framework and the importance of each entry mode determinant in differ entiating among entry modes this is done based on ninety six multinational managers responses to a survey questionnaire concerning their entry mode decision experiences the results suggest that an express incorporation of global strategic variables into an analysis of the entry mode decision is warranted

a copula garch approach for analyzing dynamic conditional dependency structure between liquefied petroleum gas freight rate product price arbitrage and crude oil price abstract global liquefied petroleum gas lpg trade shows an increasing trend but is under researched this paper focuses on the lpg market and aims to model the dependence dynamics among lpg freight rates crude oil price and propane location arbitrage conditional copula garch model is applied to estimate dependencies different types of copulas with both time invariant and time varying dependence structures are fitted and their suitability has been compared the findings suggest that firstly baltic lpg blpg freight rate and the arbitrage between propane far east and middle east prices have conditional time varying dependence and the dependence is higher in market downturns furthermore blpg and the arbitrage between far east and us propane prices have symmetric dependence and such a relationship has strengthened since 2013 secondly middle east propane price is found to have the strongest correlation with crude oil prices compared to far east and us propane prices indicating higher sensitivity to crude oil price changes last but not least the relationship between crude oil and blpg is relatively weak and mostly positive

long range growth economic development in the global network of air links we study the impact of international long distance flights on the global spatial allocation of economic activity to identify causal effects we exploit variation due to regulatory and technological constraints which give rise to a discontinuity in connectedness between cities at a distance of 6000 miles we show that these air links have a positive effect on local economic activity as captured by satellite measured night lights to shed light on how air links shape economic outcomes we first present evidence of positive externalities in the global network of air links connections induce further connections we then find that air links increase business links showing that the movement of people fosters the movement of capital in particular this is driven mostly by capital flowing from high income to middle income but not low income countries taken together our results suggest that increasing interconnectedness generates economic activity at the local level by inducing links between businesses but also gives rise to increased spatial inequality locally and potentially globally

joint venture formation of very large multinational firms large firms differ from smaller firms in many aspects in this research note we investigate the relationship between the size of firm and the characteristics of equity joint ventures ejvs empirically we found that very large firms are more likely to have a higher equity stake in their ejvs seek alignment with other foreign firms engage in global industries and invest in large scale ejvs than smaller firms they are also less affected by the risk conditions of the host country empirical testing is based on a sample of 1 298 foreign ejvs in the people s republic of china between 1981 and 1998 interesting differences also exist among firms that are based in the u s japan and europe

inter industry wage differentials in eu countries what do cross country time varying data add to the picture this paper documents the existence and main patterns of inter industry wage differentials across a large number of industries for 8 eu countries belgium germany greece hungary ireland italy netherlands and spain at two points in time in general 1995 and 2002 and explores possible explanations for these patterns the analysis uses the european structure of earnings survey ses an internationally harmonised matched employer employee dataset to estimate inter industry wage differentials conditional on a rich set of employee employer and job characteristics after investigating the possibility that unobservable employee characteristics lie behind the conditional wage differentials a hypothesis which cannot be accepted the paper investigates the role of institutional industry structure and industry performance characteristics in explaining inter industry wage differentials the results suggest that inter industry wage differentials are consistent with rent sharing mechanisms and that rent sharing is more likely in industries with firm level collective agreements and with higher collective agreement coverage jel classification j31 j41 j51

the characteristics and performance of korean joint ventures in ldcs little has been reported on joint ventures between firms from newly industrialized countries and developing countries this paper examines twelve characteristics of a sample of korean firms with partners in developing countries ldcs and contrasts them with existing research where a developed country firms have linked with firms in other developed countries and b developed country firms have linked with local firms in developing countries as part of the analysis ten hypotheses were formulated and tested

the decoupling of emerging economies theoretical and empirical puzzle with the growing importance of the emerging economies ees in the international scene a lively debate has begun on whether the national economic cycles are converging or the cycles of ees and advanced economies aes are becoming disconnected the so called hypothesis of decoupling of ees from the aes given the important practical implications that decoupling could have for example on the definition of national and international economic policies and on business strategies aimed at investment diversification and risk management the question kindles not only the interest of academics but also policymakers and practitioners are very interested in the issue the decoupling question has been long debated in different circles and from different points of view this survey aims to retrace the steps of this debate and to provide some suggestions for future empirical researches

the international effects of china s growth trade and education booms china s international trade flows have increased by 500 since 1992 far outstripping gdp growth likewise tertiary education enrollments have increased by 300 we simulate these changes using a multi sector growth model of the chinese and usa economies a decade of trade biased growth in china is found to have a large effect on the usa economy raising gdp approximately 3 4 5 percentage points we also show that the trade bias in china s growth accounts for more than half of the observed growth in tertiary enrolments in china in contrast neutral growth has practically no effect on usa incomes or china s stock of skilled labour finally the simulations reveal that china s education boom per se has practically no long run impact on the usa economy the results thus indicate that the pattern of productivity growth in exports sectors as might be caused by falling trade costs has been critical in transmitting benefits of chinese growth to the world economy they also point to an important link between falling trade costs and human capital formation

irreversible investment under uncertainty in oligopoly abstract an oligopoly is studied where firms facing a stochastic inverse demand curve use capacity as strategic variable capacity may be adjusted continuously over time with linear cost the analysis uses the technique of a fictitious social planner and the theory of irreversible investment under uncertainty examples indicate that qualitatively the price process will be similar in oligopoly and competitive equilibrium when firms are nonidentical e g in initial size and even if they are alike in other respects substantial time may pass until they are all the same size much of that time one firm may dominate the market

the shrinking advantage of market potential abstract how does a country s economic geography evolve along the development path this paper documents recent employment growth in 18 961 regions in eight of the world s main economies overall market potential is losing importance as a correlate of local growth while local employment density is gaining importance in mature economies growth is strongest in low market potential areas in emerging economies the opposite is true though the association with market potential is also weakening there structural transformation away from agriculture can account for some of the observed changes the part left unexplained by structural transformation is consistent with a standard economic geography model that yields a bell shaped relation between trade costs and the growth of centrally located regions

the trade reducing effects of market power in international shipping abstract developing countries pay substantially higher transportation costs than developed nations which leads to less trade and perhaps lower incomes this paper investigates price discrimination in the shipping industry and the role it plays in determining transportation costs in the presence of market power shipping prices depend on the demand characteristics of goods being traded we show theoretically and estimate empirically that ocean cargo carriers charge higher prices when transporting goods with higher product prices lower import demand elasticities and higher tariffs and when facing fewer competitors on a trade route these characteristics explain more variation in shipping prices than do conventional proxies such as distance and significantly contribute to the higher shipping prices facing the developing world a simple back of the envelope calculation suggests that eliminating market power in shipping would boost trade volumes by 5 9 for the us to 15 2 for latin america our findings are also important for evaluating the impact of tariff liberalization cargo carriers decrease shipping prices by 1 2 for every 1 reduction in tariffs

flexibility versus commitment mnes ownership strategy in china we investigate the following important questions in international business how do multinational enterprises mnes choose ownership strategies when facing strong uncertainty in foreign market entries how are the choices affected by industry contingencies following the key tenets of real options theory we propose that under a high level of market uncertainty mnes choose more flexible rather than more committed ownership strategies that allow adjustment of investment decisions in future we further suggest that using flexible strategies in response to uncertainty becomes less valuable for mnes when the industry they enter in the host country enjoys strong sales growth potential requires less irreversible investments and has intense competition empirically we analyze the ownership strategies ownership structure and equity share of over 5000 new foreign investments in manufacturing industries in china during 2000 2006 we find qualified support for our hypotheses and discuss the industry boundary conditions of adopting flexible ownership strategies in foreign market entries

implications of comtrade compilation practices for trade barrier analyses and negotiations u n commodity trade comtrade statistics have major shortcomings for many analyses relating to tariffs and other trade barriers the use of a cost insurance freight valuation base for these data results in an upward sometimes severe bias in the implied dutiable value of imports for countries that utilize free on board tariffs this problem can be greatly exacerbated by the general trade system procedure used to compile the u n statistics as opposed to the special trade practice used for the world trade organization integrated database u s international trade commission statistics show that the combined effects of these biases can reach magnitudes that preclude the legitimate use of comtrade for many tariff trade simulations or related trade negotiations

causes of world trade growth in agricultural and food products 1951 2000 a demand function approach the objective of the present study is to analyse the causes of the growth of international agricultural and food trade in volume terms from 1951 to 2000 the results suggest that income growth has been the principal reason for this expansion while exchange rate stability and the real price of agricultural products played only a minor role multilateral trade liberalization and trade costs given their long term stability are not elements that could have stimulated their growth finally the intensive liberalization of trade which took place in various economic regions especially in europe became a key factor in promoting agricultural trade among the countries participating in regional trade agreements the study results also indicate that the determinants of trade growth for these goods were different to those for other goods and other periods

the international reorganisation of auto production this paper analyzes the patterns of bilateral trade flows of auto components over the last decade by applying network analysis results show the rise of a number of emerging economies in asia and central and eastern europe as important parts suppliers but their role is still largely peripheral in fact there was a strengthening of the world s leading producers with a more hierarchical division of labor within their regions especially in europe regionalization of production declined in all of the groups of auto parts examined with the exception of electrical parts where a regional production network is emerging in asia

the transaction costs theory of joint ventures an empirical study of japanese subsidiaries in the united states this paper offers the first large sample empirical study of the factors which influence the choice of japanese firms between full or partial ownership of their u s manufacturing subsidiaries it studies for the first time the ownership policies of investors of a single home country in a single host country thus keeping variations within home and host countries constant one methodological improvement over previous studies is the use as independent variables of the relevant characteristics of the investing firms these had been proxied in previous studies by data on u s industries entered the results suggest that the degree of ownership taken by japanese manufacturing investors in their american subsidiaries is driven by the same general transaction costs variables that determine the choices made by their u s counterparts japanese parents joint venture when they need to combine with other firms intermediate inputs which are subject to high market transaction costs an intriguing result however is the lack of significance of two variables which in the u s case strongly push towards full control of foreign subsidiaries in this study neither the japanese parent s r d nor its advertising intensities had any significant impact on their ownership policies

does unmeasured ability explain inter industry wage differentials this paper provides empirical assessments of the two leading explanations of measured inter industry wage differentials 1 true wage differentials exist across industries and 2 the measured differentials simply reflect unmeasured differences in workers productive abilities first we summarize the existing evidence on the unmeasured ability explanation second we construct a simple model which shows that if matching is important then endogenous job change decisions can create important self selection biases even in first differenced estimates of industry wage differentials third we analyze a sample that approximates the experiment of exogenous job loss we find that i the wage change experienced by a typical industry switcher closely resembles the difference in the relevant industry differentials estimated in a cross section and ii pre displacement industry affiliation plays an important role in post displacement wage determination

factor proportions and the growth of world trade abstract most of the expansion of global trade since 1980 has been of the north south kind between capital abundant developed and labour abundant developing countries based on this observation i argue that the recent growth of world trade is best understood from a factor proportions perspective using data on trade barriers and estimates of capital labour ratios for a group of 45 economies between 1980 and 2008 i find that a calibrated factor proportions model can generate significant trade growth during this period amounting to 90 of the observed rise in north south trade the opening up of china alone accounts for three quarters of the predicted increase in line with the model i present evidence that china s liberalisation has raised the exports and imports of capital abundant countries relative to more labour abundant economies overall my findings suggest that factor proportions theory may be useful for interpreting several quantitative and qualitative aspects of growing world trade in a period during which the group of large open economies has become significantly less homogenous

industry wage premia evidence from the wage distribution abstract we argue that under the unobserved quality explanation of industry wage differentials industries with high average premia will have even higher premia among high wage workers we find however that the ols premia correctly illustrate the industry impact across the distribution

airplanes and comparative advantage abstract airplanes are a fast but expensive means of shipping goods a fact which has implications for comparative advantage the paper develops a ricardian model with a continuum of goods which vary by weight and hence transport cost comparative advantage depends on relative air and surface transport costs across countries and goods as well as stochastic productivity a key testable implication is that the u s should import heavier goods from nearby countries and lighter goods from faraway counties this implication is tested using detailed data on u s imports from 1990 to 2003 looking across goods the u s imports nearby exporters have lower market share in goods that the rest of the world ships by air looking across exporters for individual goods distance from the us is associated with much higher import unit values these effects are large which establish that the model identifies an important influence on specialization and trade

global production sharing exploring australia s competitive edge cross border dispersion of production processes within vertically integrated global industries global production sharing has been an increasingly important structural feature of economic globalisation in the recent decades this paper examines patterns and determinants of global production sharing with an emphasis on how australian manufacturing fits into global production networks gpns though australia is a minor player in gpns there is evidence that australian manufacturing has a distinct competitive edge in specialised skill intensive tasks in several industries such as aircraft medical devices machine tools measuring and scientific equipment and photographic equipment specialisation in high value to weight components and final goods within gpns which are suitable for air transport helps australian manufacturing to overcome the tyranny of distance in world trade being predominantly relationship specific australian gpn exports are not significantly susceptible to real exchange rate appreciation

determinants of the foreign equity share of international joint ventures abstract due to host government restrictions a multinational corporation is required to form a joint venture with a local partner rather than set up a wholly owned subsidiary both parties to the joint venture simultaneously decide their respective equity shares and the time to exercise an irreversible investment project via nash bargaining since the multinational corporation has a cost advantage over its local partner it will therefore hold a share larger than its relative bargaining power however if its cost advantage is less significant uncertainty is greater or the cost of exercising the investment option is increasing over time at a lower rate the multinational firm will hold a smaller share and will also be more hesitant as regards exercising the investment option

transportation costs and international trade in the second era of globalization while the precise causes of postwar trade growth are not well understood declines in transport costs top the lists of usual suspects however there is remarkably little systematic evidence documenting the decline this paper brings to bear an eclectic mix of data in order to provide a detailed accounting of the time series pattern of shipping costs the ad valorem impact of ocean shipping costs is not much lower today than in the 1950s with technological advances largely trumped by adverse cost shocks in contrast air shipping costs have dropped an order of magnitude and airborne trade has grown rapidly as a result as a result international trade has also experienced a significant rise in speed

the place premium bounding the price equivalent of migration barriers large international differences in the price of labor can be sustained by differences between workers or by natural and policy barriers to worker mobility we use migrant selection theory and evide

exchange rates and the choice of ownership structure of production facilities the aim of this research is to study the effects of real exchange rates on the long term ownership strategies of production facilities of firms entering foreign markets among the strategies considered are exporting exp joint ventures with local partners jv and wholly owned production facilities wos in the foreign country our research takes a first step in modeling the influence of exchange rates on the choice and dynamic adjustment of such strategies the insights obtained from our modeling analysis are then translated into testable hypotheses and empirically verified with the use of firm level data from u s multinational corporations both at the firm and a more aggregate level an insightful result of our model is the identification of a hysteresis phenomenon that characterizes switching behavior between strategies in the presence of switchover cost the magnitude of the hysteresis band which is a measure of the inertia associated with keeping the current ownership structure is affected by a multiplicity of factors such as exchange rate volatility and market power of the entering firm analytical and numerical results on the effects of such factors on the hysteresis band are provided the four testable hypotheses generated from our modeling analysis are rigorously tested with the use of a multinomial logit model on data obtained from the harvard multinational enterprise database and a data set maintained by the bureau of economic analysis the u s department of commerce the empirical results strongly support our insights that relatively depreciated real exchange rates i e weak home currency favor a the jv over the wos and b exp mode over the wos or jv finally we summarize our results into useful guidelines for global production managers

trade costs 1870 2000 what has driven trade booms and trade busts in the past century and a half was it changes in global output or in the costs of international trade to address this question we derive a micro founded measure of aggregate bilateral trade costs based on a standard model of trade in differentiated goods these trade costs gauge the difference between observed bilateral trade and frictionless trade in terms of an implied markup on retail prices of foreign goods thus we are able to estimate the combined magnitude of tariffs transportation costs and all other macroeconomic frictions that impede interna tional trade but that are inherently difficult to observe we use this measure to examine the growth of global trade between 1870 and 1913 its retreat from 1921 to 1939 and its subsequent rise from 1950 to 2000 we find that trade cost declines explain roughly 55 percent of the pre world war i trade boom and 33 percent of the post world war ii trade boom while a precipi tous rise in trade costs explains the entire inter

the nature of oil shocks and the global economy abstract this paper identifies the main driving force behind oil price shocks in 1970 2006 by applying a simple identification strategy of supply driven and demand driven price shocks the identification hypothesis states that supply driven oil price shocks have a negative impact on the macroeconomic activity of countries which are net consumers of oil while demand driven oil price shocks do not have negative effects in order to identify global demand driven shocks a weighted aggregate gdp series of countries which are net consumers of oil is constructed over 1970 2006 the key result is that the main driving force behind oil price shocks has changed from supply driven shocks in 1970 1992 to demand driven shocks in 1992 2006

heterogeneous trade costs and wage inequality a model of two globalizations abstract we develop a model for analyzing the distributional effects of two globalizations and their interdependence we distinguish between two trade cost reductions i trade liberalizations in the 1980s which increased trade in low skill intensive goods denoted l globalization and ii reductions in communication costs due to the it revolution which raised trade in middle skill intensive goods during the 1990s denoted c globalization we consider a north south trade economy in which the north is skill abundant a freely traded final good is produced using high skill services and a bundle of inputs inputs differ on the intensity of middle and low skill workers required to be produced and are subject to heterogeneous trade costs in the north we find that wage inequality increases in the l globalization during the c globalization wage polarization emerges the relative wage of high to middle skill workers increases while the relative wage of middle to low skill workers is hump shaped we find a complementarity between the two globalizations wage polarization is delayed by the extent of trade in the l globalization in the south we find that wage inequality increases in both globalizations finally we show how asymmetric participation in the c globalization of two southern countries generates a discontinuous pattern of specialization the southern country participating in the c globalization specializes in the least and most skill intensive traded inputs

spatial linkages and export processing location in china this paper provides empirical evidence that spatial linkages matter for the localisation of global value chain activities relying on processing trade data for chinese provinces during the period 1997 2008 we investigate whether a chinese province s proximity to international suppliers and international buyers within an industry chain affects its attractiveness as an export processing location we find that the upstream and downstream spatial linkages both have a strong and independent explanatory power we also explore what factors explain the influence of these spatial linkages

the quality income effect and the selection of location we analyze a location choice model with two vertically differentiated firms and two regions with different consumer income we find that the high quality producer settles in the poor region and the low quality one in the rich region when income disparities are sufficiently high and goods are differentiated enough this apparently counter intuitive result is not determined by technology or size issues rather it relies on the relationship between regional income disparities and product quality which we call the quality income effect

an economic model of international joint venture strategy the strategic choice between joint ventures licensing agreements and mergers is analysed using eight key factors suggested by internalisation theory the model explains the increasing role of international joint ventures in the 1980s in terms of the accelerating pace of technological innovation and the globalisation of markets it offers a range of predictions about the formation of joint ventures within industries across industries across locations and over time it exploits a powerful modelling technique that has many other applications in international business strategy

how do the trans pacific economies affect the usa an industrial sector approach this paper studies how the trans pacific region affects the us economy in terms of business cycle transmission we use a large data set consisting of disaggregated sectoral industrial production indexes from selected countries in the region and employ a factor augmented vector autoregression favar approach to analyse the transmission of shocks in different industries we find that a positive output shock in the entire trans pacific region has positive effects on the majority of us manufacturing sectors we also find that sectoral shocks in five sectors of the trans pacific region have a large impact on the overall us economy three of the five sectors displayed strong same sector responses relative to the overall response suggesting that vertical production linkages might play a key role in the transmission of shocks our results highlight the importance of examining industrial sectors in studying the transmission of shocks in the trans pacific region

endogenous pricing to market and financing costs abstract this paper explains why relative ppp should hold more tightly in emerging markets and why pricing to market would be observed more frequently in the oecd countries it studies the endogenous determination of pricing to market in a real option model with time dependent transportation costs where the future terms of trade are random allowing time dependent transportation costs adds a dimension of investment to the pre buying of imports implying that financial considerations determine the frequency of pricing to market and the deviations from relative ppp if the expected discounted cost of last minute delivery is higher than pre buying one exercises the option of spot market imports if the realized terms of trade are favorable enough pricing to market is observed in countries characterized by low terms of trade volatility and low financing costs in these circumstances imports are pre bought and the spot market for imports is inactive in countries where the financing costs and the terms of trade volatility are high few imports are pre bought the price of imports is determined by the realized real exchange rate and a version of relative ppp holds with an intermediate level of terms of trade volatility and of financing costs a mixed regime is observed if the realized real exchange rate is weak pricing to market would prevail increasing consumers welfare by shielding them from the adverse purchasing power consequences of weak terms of trade if the realized real exchange rate is favorable enough more imports are purchased in the spot market and the relative ppp would hold higher financing costs increase the cost of pre buying imports reducing thereby the frequency of pricing to market increasing the expected relative price of imports reducing the expected deviations from relative ppp and reducing welfare

measuring international trade costs the costs of international trade have become an increasingly important item in trade negotiations under the heading trade facilitation and element of trade theory but definition and measurement of trade costs remain in their infancy this paper argues that the most conceptually appropriate measure is the gap between cost insurance freight cif and free on board fob values of traded goods but that this must be measured on a consistent volume of trade such data are only available for a few countries we calculate cif fob gap values for the three largest trading nations that report such data australia brazil and the usa these values provide plausible estimates of ad valorem trade costs for the three importing countries and for all countries exports the estimates indicate that although trade costs have fallen over the last two decades average trade costs now exceed the average tariff rate on imports into the usa and australia country rankings by the cif fob gap values differ significantly from those by commonly used proxies for trade costs such as the indicators of time and cost in the world bank s doing business database and analysis based on such proxies is likely to produce misleading results