firm optimism and pessimism abstract this paper explores the question of whether firms have systematic expectation biases using microdata from the west german manufacturing subset of the ifo business climate survey we infer quarterly production growth rates at the firm level we then combine this information with production growth expectations over a quarterly horizon to construct quantitative firm specific expectation errors our findings show that at most one third of our firms systematically over or underpredict their production growth one quarter ahead our findings further show that larger and exporting firms tend to have more realistic expectations while firms with higher leverage are more prone to expectations that are biased towards optimism

clean energy policy taxing carbon and the illusion of the equity objective abstract the australian government has passed legislation the clean energy future policy establishing a carbon emission pricing scheme while the scheme is represented as the most efficient and cost effective means of reducing emissions the government has also committed to ensuring equity in burden sharing particularly through the use of household compensation methods and by minimising the disadvantages faced by energy intensive trade exposed industries thereby committing to these industries continued developments treasury modelling used to determine the required level of household compensation has remained relatively uncontested we question the conclusion of equity in burden sharing on the basis of this modelling the modelling reflects fairly standard conventional economic theory in terms of market structures the determination of prices and outputs and the characterisation of factor markets the behavioural assumptions overstate the consumer and producer substitution possibilities failing to consider the possibility of technical reswitching and ignore the impact that oligopolistic market structures would have on price increases and infrastructure investment the full ramifications of compensation for overall government expenditure and therefore the capacity of the government to continue to fund a range of elements of the social wage the potential for unemployment and transitioning workers to less carbon intensive industries are also overlooked

can firms see into the future survey evidence from germany abstract this paper presents new evidence on the expectation formation process of firms from a survey of the german manufacturing sector first firms become too optimistic after their business has improved consistent with the over extrapolation of their experience second firms extrapolate improvements in their business more than deteriorations third firms are more optimistic pessimistic than usual during business cycle peaks troughs suggesting that they do not anticipate reversals fourth the german reunification provided a positive exogenous shock to the business of west german products the industries most positively affected by the shock initially over extrapolated the past downward trend just as much as the less affected industries and thus failed to anticipate the reversal fifth more overoptimistic firms subsequently report larger inventories and lower profits suggesting that expectation errors entail opportunity costs sixth older and larger firms show a smaller extrapolation bias indicating that time and resources can alleviate the extrapolation bias seventh firms that expect their business to improve tend to also expect their prices to increase suggesting that firms mostly try to forecast demand shocks as opposed to supply shocks overall these observations suggest that firms have a limited ability to anticipate changes in their activity and extrapolate their experience too much

non contractible investments and vertical integration in the mexican footwear industry abstract this paper examines patterns of integration among manufacturers and retailers using data from a survey of footwear manufacturers in mexico the property rights framework developed in papers by grossman and hart 1986 j polit econ 94 691 and hart and moore 1990 j polit econ 98 1119 is differentiated from the standard empirical transactions cost framework in the context of this industry the most relevant distinction between the two frameworks is that the property rights framework addresses both the benefits and costs of integration while the transactions cost framework focuses only on variation in the benefits of integration we show that the costs of integration are highest where the retailer s non contractible investment has an important effect on the overall profits from the relationship consistent with the property rights framework the data suggest that integration is less likely in these circumstances

business cycle dynamics under rational inattention we develop a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium dsge model with rational inattention and compare its predictions to data households and decision makers in firms have limited attention and optimally allocate their attention rational inattention is the only source of slow adjustment the model matches the empirical impulse responses to monetary policy shocks and aggregate technology shocks at the same time profit losses and utility losses from inattention are very small furthermore it matters whether one uses this model or a conventional dsge model for policy analysis

participation in marijuana cocaine and heroin consumption in australia a multivariate probit approach this article investigates factors affecting the participation in marijuana cocaine and heroin using micro unit data from an australian national survey on recreational drugs accounting for cross drug correlation potentially induced by unobserved personal characteristics such as individual tastes and addictive personalities we estimate a trivariate probit model where the participation decisions are jointly modelled as a system with correlated error terms the estimated correlation coefficients are significant across all three drugs the study provides valuable empirical information on conditional and joint probabilities of drug participation the multivariate approach is shown to provide better analysis relative to a univariate approach that does not address the endogeneity of all drug participation variables

information rigidity and the expectations formation process a simple framework and new facts we propose a new approach to test the full information rational expectations hypothesis which can identify whether rejections of the null arise from irrationality or limited information this approach quantifies the economic significance of departures from the null by quantifying the underlying degree of information rigidity applying this approach to u s and international data of professional forecasters and other agents yields pervasive evidence consistent with models of imperfect information furthermore the proposed approach sheds new light on policies such as inflation targeting and those leading to the great moderation affecting expectations finally we document evidence of state dependence in the expectations formation process

consumer choice and competition policy a study of uk energy markets consumer choice is increasingly recognised as a crucial factor in competition policy to illustrate the implications of such choice we present an investment model of the switching choice in the uk residential natural gas market and examine responses to a specially commissioned survey of nearly seven hundred consumers identifying search and switching costs through an assessment of the savings which consumers say they require to switch supplier together with an evaluation of consumer switching behaviour we deduce that the incumbent retained considerable market power suggesting that some continued regulation may be necessary

how do firms form their expectations new survey evidence author s coibion o gorodnichenko y kumar s abstract 2018 american economic association all rights reserved we survey new zealand firms and document novel facts about their macroeconomic beliefs there is widespread dispersion in beliefs about past and future macroeconomic conditions especially inflation this dispersion in beliefs is consistent with firms incentives to collect and process information using experimental methods we find that firms update their beliefs in a bayesian manner when presented with new information about the economy and that changes in their beliefs affect their decisions inflation is not generally perceived as being important to business decisions so firms devote few resources to collecting and processing information about inflation

man bites dog business cycles the newsworthiness of an event is partly determined by how unusual it is and this paper investigates the business cycle implications of this fact signals that are more likely to be observed after unusual events may increase both uncertainty and disagreement among agents in a simple business cycle model such signals can explain why we observe i occasional large changes in macro economic aggregate variables without a correspondingly large change in underlying fundamentals ii persistent periods of high macroeconomic volatility and iii a positive correlation between absolute changes in macro variables and the cross sectional dispersion of survey expectations

the power of forward guidance revisited in recent years central banks have increasingly turned to forward guidance as a central tool of monetary policy especially as interest rates around the world have hit the zero lower bound standard monetary models imply that far future forward guidance is extremely powerful promises about far future interest rates have huge effects on current economic outcomes and these effects grow with the horizon of the forward guidance we show that the power of forward guidance is highly sensitive to the assumption of complete markets if agents face uninsurable income risk and borrowing constraints a precautionary savings effect tempers their responses to changes in future interest rates as a consequence forward guidance has substantially less power to stimulate the economy in addition we show that the business cycle dynamics of our incomplete markets model differ substantially from its complete market counterpart this contrasts with the well known results of krusell and smith 1998 we present approximate representations that can easily be incorporated into standard business cycle models

capital distribution and macroeconomics core beliefs and theoretical foundations the paper suggests an alternative benchmark model or microfoundations for theorising about macroeconomic phenomena in the case of competitive equilibria this alternative reflects a classical sraffian explanation of relative prices this approach also provides a coherent framework for the analysis of the choice of technique in a multi commodity setting in turn it leads to results which throw into question a number of key propositions of conventional macro theory including the notion of a long run self correcting mechanism for involuntary unemployment in the presence of wage and price flexibility the paper argues that a classical sraffian approach provides a means of reconciling keynesian results with competitive outcomes copyright 2004 oxford university press

inflation and output in new keynesian models with a transient interest rate peg a familiar result in the canonical dynamic new keynesian dnk model is that policymakers constrained by the zero bound can improve outcomes by promising to keep rates low after the zero bound is not binding we examine a general class of interest rate pegs in a variety of dnk models standard versions of the model produce counterintuitive reversals where the effect of the interest rate peg can switch from highly expansionary to highly contractionary for modest changes in the length of the interest rate peg this unusual behavior does not arise in sticky information models of the phillips curve

sraffian interdependence and partial equilibrium analysis the conventional partial equilibrium analysis of input demands star ts from the cost minimization condition and then supposes that only one input price changes but if initial prices make price equal to unit cost in every industry changing only one price means violating the price equals unit cost conditions here by contrast price cost equality is maintained throughout primary input price quality relations now need not be negative when there is input complementarit y and produced input price quality relations now need not be negative even when all inputs are substitutes this is so even with a constant zero rate of interest copyright 1988 by oxford university press

monetary policy announcements and expectations evidence from german firms abstract we assess empirically whether monetary policy announcements impact firm expectations two features of our data set are key first we rely on a survey of production and price expectations of german firms that is expectations of actual price setters second we observe the day on which firms submit their answers to the survey we compare the responses of firms before and after monetary policy surprises and obtain two results first firm expectations respond to policy surprises second the response becomes weaker as the surprise becomes bigger a contractionary surprise of moderate size reduces firm expectations while a moderate expansionary surprise raises them large surprises both negative and positive fail to alter expectations consistent with this result we find that many of the ecb s announcements of non conventional policies did not affect expectations significantly overall our results are consistent with the notion that monetary policy surprises generate an information effect which is endogenous to the size of the policy surprise

internet start ups access to the bank loan market evidence from italy the analysis of the bank sector s ability to efficiently fuel the birth of new italian business ventures in internet related services is studied in particular through the specification and the estimate of a series of econometric models this paper aims at investigating which characteristics of a large sample of internet start ups and their relative founders facilitate access to the loan market more precisely the role played by founders human capital as a possible significant signal used by banks to evaluate investment projects is addressed estimation results suggest that highly qualified human resources possessed by internet founders do not represent an important driver for gaining access to bank credit and they do not affect the amount of the incurred debt

the high frequency response of the eur usd exchange rate to ecb communication we investigate the impact of the european central bank s monetary policy communication during the press conference held after the monthly governing council meeting on the eur usd exchange rate in high frequency based on the method of content analysis we construct communication indicators for the introductory statement and find that communication with respect to future price developments is most relevant in response to statements about increasing risks to price stability the eur appreciates on impact to the contrary communication about economic activity and monetary aggregates does not generate significant exchange rate reactions

federal reserve information and the behavior of interest rates this paper tests for the existence of asymmetric information between the federal reserve and the public by examining federal reserve and commercial inflation forecasts it demonstrates that the federal reserve has considerable information about inflation beyond what is known to commercial forecasters it also shows that monetary policy actions provide signals of the federal reserve s information and that commercial forecasters modify their forecasts in response to those signals these findings may explain why long term interest rates typically rise in response to shifts to tighter monetary policy jel e52 e43 d82 asymmetric information between the federal reserve and the public is a phenomenon that is often posited but rarely tested numerous models of central bank behavior for example show that the existence of asymmetric information has important implications for the effectiveness of policy and the consequences of dynamic inconsistency yet there

what can survey forecasts tell us about information rigidities a lot we derive common and conflicting predictions from models in which agents face information constraints and then assess their validity using surveys of consumers firms central bankers and professional forecasters we document that mean forecasts fail to completely adjust on impact to shocks leading to statistically and economically significant deviations from the null of full information the dynamics of forecast errors after shocks are consistent with the predictions of models with information rigidities the conditional responses of forecast errors and disagreement among agents can also be used to differentiate between some of the most prominent models of information rigidities

input price input quantity relations and the numeraire the fact that a competitive agent faces given input prices does not necessarily mean that these prices can be completely arbitrary especially in the long run an obvious case but not the only one is when there are input output relations among industries but as soon as long run input price interrelatedness is taken seriously the very conception of a downward sloping input demand curve encounters serious difficulties although one can always draw an input price input quantity relation its main qualitative property the sign of its slope is not generally independent of the arbitrary choice of numeraire copyright the author 2009 published by oxford university press on behalf of the cambridge political economy society all rights reserved oxford university press

estimating engel curves under unit and item nonresponse summary this paper estimates food engel curves using data from the first wave of the survey on health aging and retirement in europe share our statistical model simultaneously takes into account selectivity due to unit and item nonresponse endogeneity problems and issues related to flexible specification of the relationship of interest we estimate both parametric and semiparametric specifications of the model the parametric specification assumes that the unobservables in the model follow a multivariate gaussian distribution while the semiparametric specification avoids distributional assumptions about the unobservables copyright 2011 john wiley sons ltd

high frequency identification of monetary non neutrality the information effect we present estimates of monetary non neutrality based on evidence from high frequency responses of real interest rates expected inflation and expected output growth our identifying assumption is that unexpected changes in interest rates in a 30 minute window surrounding scheduled federal reserve announcements arise from news about monetary policy in response to an interest rate hike nominal and real interest rates increase roughly one for one several years out into the term structure while the response of expected inflation is small at the same time forecasts about output growth also increase the opposite of what standard models imply about a monetary tightening to explain these facts we build a model in which fed announcements affect beliefs not only about monetary policy but also about other economic fundamentals our model implies that these information effects play an important role in the overall causal effect of monetary policy shocks on output

comments on monetary policy announcements and expectations evidence from german firms abstract enders et al 2019b find that small expansionary monetary policy surprises lead to increases in firms price and production expectations vice versa for small contractionary monetary surprises for larger monetary surprises of either direction the reaction of price and production expectations tends to be dampened back to zero this finding is explained with a differential size dependent mix in monetary policy surprises as regards their actual monetary policy content and their delphic information content about how the monetary authority views the state of the economy policy conclusions from this result for the conduct of monetary policy and its communication are discussed

time varying business volatility and the price setting of firms abstract does time varying business uncertainty volatility affect the price setting of firms and in what way we estimate from the micro data of the german ifo business climate survey the impact of idiosyncratic volatility on the extensive margin of firm level price setting behavior heightened uncertainty increases the probability of a price change suggesting that for price setting the volatility effect dominates the wait and see effect in a second step we use structural vector autoregressions to estimate the effects of uncertainty on the intensive pricing margin higher uncertainty leads to an increase in price dispersion and to larger price adjustments

geographical labour mobility migration or commuting eliasson k lindgren u and westerlund o 2003 geographical labour mobility migration or commuting reg studies 37 827 837 in this paper we examine how individual labour market status and spatial variations in employment opportunities influence interregional job search behaviour and mobility decisions in sweden the econometric analysis is based on 290 000 individual observations and refers to the years 1994 95 the empirical results show that the probability of interregional labour mobility unexpectedly decreases with the accessibility to employment opportunities in neighbouring regions as expected the findings reveal that accessibility to job openings in surrounding regions significantly increases the likelihood of choosing commuting as the mobility mode moreover the empirical findings indicate that individual unemployment experience increases the likelihood of mobility as well as migration eliasson k lindgren u et westerlund o 2003 la mobilite geographique du travail la migration

the impact of real rents and wages on household formation although the economic literature has analyzed some components of the headship decision study of household formation has been primarily in the realm of demography the authors expand the demographic model to include economic determinants of the decision to remain with parents or not and to live with a group or separately they focus on measuring the effect of spatial variations in rental costs on the probability of forming a household the authors results based on a sample of 2 573 youths in their twenties indicate that the cost of housing and potential labor earnings are important variables in explaining this probability copyright 1993 by mit press

signalling effects of monetary policy we develop a dynamic general equilibrium model in which the policy rate signals the central bank s view about macroeconomic developments to price setters the model is estimated with likelihood methods on a u s data set that includes the survey of professional forecasters as a measure of price setters inflation expectations this model improves upon existing perfect information models in explaining why in the data inflation expectations respond with delays to monetary impulses and remain disanchored for years in the 1970s u s monetary policy is found to signal persistent inflationary shocks explaining why inflation and inflation expectations were so persistently heightened the signalling effects of monetary policy also explain why inflation expectations adjusted more sluggishly than inflation after the robust monetary tightening of the 1980s

intertemporal analysis of employment decisions on agricultural holdings in slovenia the article attempts to quantify determinants influencing the dynamics of employment decisions on agricultural holdings in slovenia and to test specific aspects of labor reallocation during the transition period by the application of an agricultural household model through the use of a 1991 2000 longitudinal data set for 22 055 farm households quantitative analysis of intertemporal employment decisions by farm holders is carried out using probit techniques the determinants tested relate to the personal characteristics of farm holders gender age education level and potential off farm income household characteristics size structure characteristics of the agricultural holding economic size labor intensity and local labor market conditions the model results generally confirm existing empirical evidence on asymmetrical and irreversible participation of holders on the labor market despite intensive restructuring of agriculture and profound changes in the nonfarm labor market in the analyzed period labor supply of farm holders remains rigid the mobility of labor supply is lower than expected which can be attributed to the importance of structural problems constraining intersectoral mobility low labor mobility reduces the efficiency of labor allocation on agricultural holdings in slovenia elements of this problem emerge on both supply e g low level of educational and professional attainment of reference persons and demand sides of the labor market e g unfavorable local labor market conditions a marked tendency toward maintaining the same employment status is more distinct in the case of holders employed on farm only

loss severities on residential real estate debt during the great recession abstract this study develops estimates of expected loss severities on mortgage exposures using data from florida during the great recession this paper marks the first attempt at addressing sample selectivity in the context of loss models we also construct measures of home equity that are more accurate than those employed in previous studies we find that failing to address sample selection and the use of noisy equity measures in loss models can bias loss estimates significantly we also find significantly higher loss severities and a greater sensitivity of loss severity to equity than what previous studies report

suspension of payments bank failures and the nonbank public s losses abstract we present evidence on the effects of suspensions of payments from an episode that is close to a controlled experiment for examining those effects in 1861 about 44 of the banks in wisconsin closed 81 of the banks in illinois closed and noteholders suffered substantial losses the historical record suggests that an effective suspension of payments in wisconsin but not in illinois may explain the difference our statistical evidence indicates that the suspension of payments increased the probability of a bank remaining open by about 21 percentage points and decreased noteholders losses by about 14 cents per dollar

the effectiveness of non standard monetary policy measures evidence from survey data we assess the perception of professional forecasters regarding the effectiveness of unconventionalmonetary policy measures undertaken by the u s federal reserve after the collapse of lehmanbrothers using individual survey data we analyse the changes in forecasting of bond yields aroundthe announcement and implementation dates of non standard monetary policies the resultsindicate that bond yields are expected to drop significantly for at least one year after theannouncement and the implementation of accommodative policies

optimal sticky prices under rational inattention this paper presents a model in which price setting firms decide what to pay attention to subject to a constraint on information flow when idiosyncratic conditions are more variable or more important than aggregate conditions firms pay more attention to idiosyncratic conditions than to aggregate conditions when we calibrate the model to match the large average absolute size of price changes observed in micro data prices react fast and by large amounts to idiosyncratic shocks but only slowly and by small amounts to nominal shocks nominal shocks have strong and persistent real effects we use the model to investigate how the optimal allocation of attention and the dynamics of prices depend on the firms environment jel e 3 e5 d8