estimating residential demand for electricity in greece abstract this paper examines the residential demand for electricity in greece the issues of structural stability price and income sensitivity of both long and short run residential demand for electricity in greece were examined employing monthly data over the period 1986 1999 the long run residential demand for electricity is estimated taking into account changes in weather conditions weighted by the size of the population employing multivariate framework analysis a long run residential demand function for electricity sensitive to real income price level and weather conditions is found to exist and the importance of short run deviations is presented using vector error correction model vecm estimation the empirical evidence suggests the presence of a stable residential demand for electricity in greece both in the long and short run periods and the policy implications of such a relationship are presented

defining the rebound effect abstract this paper gives rigorous definitions of the rebound effect not only in the well described single commodity case khazzoom 1980 the energy journal 1 4 21 40 but also for a multiple commodity case it is shown that the familiar laws for the single case do not hold for the multiple case the paper describes the state of the art of empirical estimation of the rebound effect with special focus on the estimates done for the netherlands we conclude that according to every definition empirical evidence shows that the re is probably small between 0 and 15

dynamic pricing of perishable assets under competition we study dynamic price competition in an oligopolistic market with a mix of substitutable and complementary perishable assets each firm has a fixed initial stock of items and competes in setting prices to sell them over a finite sales horizon customers sequentially arrive at the market make a purchase choice and then leave immediately with some likelihood of no purchase the purchase likelihood depends on the time of purchase product attributes and current prices the demand structure includes time variant linear and multinomial logit demand models as special cases assuming deterministic customer arrival rates we show that any equilibrium strategy has a simple structure involving a finite set of shadow prices measuring capacity externalities that firms exert on each other equilibrium prices can be solved from a one shot price competition game under the current time demand structure taking into account capacity externalities through the time invariant shadow prices the former reflects the transient demand side at every moment and the latter captures the aggregate supply constraints over the sales horizon this simple structure sheds light on dynamic revenue management problems under competition which helps capture the essence of the problems under demand uncertainty we show that the equilibrium solutions from the deterministic game provide precommitted and contingent heuristic policies that are asymptotic equilibria for its stochastic counterpart when demand and supply are sufficiently large this paper was accepted by yossi aviv operations management

quality and competition in recent years the practitioner literature in operations management has seen a dramatic surge in articles on quality management it reflects the increased emphasis on quality by u s firms which has been attributed largely to increased competition faced by them the question of how quality is influenced by competitive intensity however has not received much attention either in the practitioner or the academic research literatures the notion of competitive intensity itself has not been defined precisely in this paper we develop formal models of oligopolistic competition to investigate whether equilibrium levels of quality increase as competition intensifies we consider three different competitive settings i asymmetric duopolistic competition where the dominant firm s intrinsic demand potential decreases ii a symmetric duopoly where the firms are precluded from cooperating in setting quality levels and iii symmetric oligopolistic competition where the number of firms increases we find that the relation between equilibrium quality and competitive intensity depends on what is understood by increased competition and in addition the relation is contingent on the values of parameters describing the cost and demand structure for the industry

multinomial logit market share models equilibrium characteristics and strategic implications we specify and analyze the conditions under which the mnl market share models are appropriate for equilibrium analysis our results show that a linear price response function as is often used in empirical research in conjunction with the typical concavity assumed in a large range of marketing response functions would yield an interior equilibrium solution we then consider the optimal reactions on pricing and marketing spending to entry and potential market expansion in the context of the mnl models we demonstrate that the entry of a new brand evokes a decrease in the equilibrium prices of the existing brands as a defensive reaction this is true in both an expanding market as well as a fixed market however while new entry into a fixed market would trigger the incumbents to lower the marketing expenditure we show that firms tend to raise marketing activities as they experience market expansion consequently there exist distinct possibilities that marketing efforts for the existing brands increase in view of entry in an expanding market further managerial and marketing implications for endogeneity of the number of firms are explored

endogeneity in brand choice models applications of random utility models to scanner data have been widely presented in marketing for the last 20 years one particular problem with these applications is that they have ignored possible correlations between the independent variables in the deterministic component of utility price promotion etc and the stochastic component or error term in fact marketing mix variables such as price not only affect brand purchasing probabilities but are themselves endogenously set by marketing managers this work tests whether these endogeneity problems are important enough to warrant consideration when estimating random utility models with scanner panel data our results show that not accounting for endogeneity may result in a substantial bias in the parameter estimates

the effects of selling packaged goods on inventory decisions in this paper we study within a newsboy type modeling framework the common business practice of retail firms to sell products not only as independent items but also as part of multiproduct packets packaged goods our emphasis is on understanding the effects of such practices on the inventory decisions of the firm we provide insights on the resulting level of suboptimality when inventory decisions are made with demand information only on the independent items and without accounting for the demand substitution structure induced between independent items and packaged goods our stylized model studies an environment with two products that are not direct substitutes for each other sold either independently or as part of a packet that contains one unit of each we provide necessary and sufficient optimality conditions for this model and suggest an efficient numerical search for obtaining the optimal stocking levels an extensive computational study allowed us to provide insights on the nature of the optimal stocking policies the suboptimality of independent newsboy policies the effects of demand correlation among individual products and multiproduct packets and the determining role of induced substitution structure among products during stockout occasions on the profitability of the inventory system

base stock policies for production inventory problems with uncertain capacity levels abstract in this paper we consider a single item stochastic demand production inventory problem where the maximum amount that can be produced or ordered in any given period is assumed to be uncertain inventory levels are reviewed periodically the system operates under a stationary modified base stock policy the intent of our paper is to present a procedure for computing the optimal base stocl level of this policy under expected average cost per period criterion this procedure would provide guidance as to the appropriate amount of capacity to store in the form of inventory in the face of stochastic demand and uncertain capacity in achieving this goal our main contribution is to establish the analogy between the class of base stock production inventory policies that operate under demand capacity uncertainty and the g g 1 queues and their associated random walks we also present example derivations for some important capacity distributions

risk sharing and information revelation mechanism of a one manufacturer and one retailer supply chain facing an integrated competitor this paper develops an information revelation mechanism model of a one manufacturer and one retailer supply chain facing an outside integrated competitor under demand uncertainty we investigate how the manufacturer designs a wholesale price order quantity contract to induce the retailer to report his risk sensitivity information truthfully we try to explore the effects of the outside competitor and the risk sharing rule on the optimal price service level decisions of the retailer and the optimal wholesale prices of the manufacturer we find that the strategic interaction plays an important role in the effect of risk sensitivity on the order quantity for the retailer when the fraction of the risk cost shared by the manufacturer is sufficiently large small the optimal wholesale price for the high risk averse retailer is higher lower than that for the low risk averse retailer

critical number policies for inventory models with periodic data we consider an infinite horizon in problem with stochastic demands where the data vary periodically karlin karlin s 1960a dynamic inventory policy with varying stochastic demands management sci 6 231 258 karlin s 1960b optimal policy for dynamic inventory process with stochastic demands subject to seasonal variations j siam8 611 629 shows that a periodic critical number policy is optimal and presents an algorithm for computing the critical numbers assuming discounted costs here we develop an alternative conceptually simpler approach to these problems the results include a proof of the optimality of such policies for the average cost case and a qualitative description of the behavior of the optimal policy as smoothing fluctuations in the data

environmental efficiency and market segmentation an empirical analysis of china s thermal power industry abstract dominated by state owned administrative monopolistic enterprises china s power industry faces a dilemma that is being provoked by market oriented reforms regional protectionism makes it more difficult for those more efficient but non local power generators to enter into the local market thereby causing significant market segmentation ms in view of regional technology heterogeneity a meta frontier non radial slacks based measure model is used to evaluate the environmental efficiency ee of china s thermal power industry further we utilize a panel data tobit model and apply counterfactual analysis to explore the impacts of ms on ee the results show that 1 technology gaps exist between the group frontier and the meta frontier exhibiting greater potential for improvement 2 the degree of ms in thermal power industry in most provinces fluctuates within a narrow range from 2006 to 2015 and peaks during the period from 2008 to 2010 3 ms negatively affects ee performance both significantly and robustly with up to a 15 loss of thermal power generation due to ms in 2009 4 significant regional technology heterogeneity exists along with a widening technology gap ratio between developed and underdeveloped areas this study provides insightful policy implications for the sustainable development of china s thermal power industry

a periodic review production planning model with uncertain capacity and uncertain demand optimality of extended myopic policies increasing product complexity manufacturing environment complexity and an increased emphasis on product quality are all factors leading to uncertainties in production processes these uncertainties are in the form of unplanned machine maintenance varying production yields and rework among others in planning for production an adequate model must incorporate these uncertainties into the representation of the production process this paper treats the aggregate planning problem for a single product with random demand and random capacity in the single period problem random capacity does not affect the optimal policy but results in a unimodal nonconvex cost function in the multiple period and infinite horizon settings order up to policies that are dependent on the distribution of capacity are shown to be optimal in spite of a nonconvex cost in the infinite horizon setting an intuitive description of the situation leads to the notion of a class of extended myopic policies requiring the consideration o

using latent variable approach to estimate china s economy wide energy rebound effect over 1954 2010 the energy rebound effect has been a significant issue in china which is undergoing economic transition since it reflects the effectiveness of energy saving policy relying on improved energy efficiency based on the ipat equation and brookes explanation of the rebound effect this paper develops an alternative estimation model of the rebound effect by using the estimation model and latent variable approach which is achieved through a time varying coefficient state space model we estimate china s economy wide energy rebound effect over 1954 2010 the results show that the rebound effect evidently exists in china as a result of the annual average of 39 73 over 1954 2010 before and after the implementation of china s reform and opening up policy in 1978 the rebound effects are 47 24 and 37 32 with a strong fluctuation and a circuitously downward trend respectively indicating that a stable political environment and the development of market economy system facilitate the effectiveness of energy saving policy although the energy saving effect of improving energy efficiency has been partly realised there remains a large energy saving potential in china

matching bias in labor demand estimation abstract using a matched firm worker dataset we show both theoretically and empirically that positive assortative matching between firms and workers leads to an underestimation of the absolute value of wage elasticity of labor demand

product and price competition with satiation effects consumers become satiated with a product when purchasing too much too quickly how much is too much and how quickly is too quickly depends on the characteristics of the product relative to the time interval between consumption periods knowing that consumers allocate their budget to products that generate less satiation effects retailers should then choose to sell products that induce minimal satiation but usually this is operationally more costly to study this trade off we provide an analytical model based on utility theory that relates customer consumption to price and satiation in the context of multiple competing retailers we determine the purchasing pattern over time and provide an explicit expression to determine the consumption level in steady state we derive market shares and show that they take the form of an attraction model in which the attractiveness depends on price and product satiation we use this to analyze the competition between firms that maximize long term average profit we characterize the equilibrium under three scenarios i price only competition ii product only competition and iii price and product competition the results reveal the interplay between a key marketing lever price and the firm s ability to offer products that generate less satiation in particular we show that when a firm becomes more efficient at reducing satiation its competitor may benefit if competition is on product only but not if it is on price and product we also find that when satiation effects are not managed a firm s profit may be significantly reduced while a strategic competitor can largely benefit this paper was accepted by yossi aviv operations management

the structure of periodic review policies in the presence of random yield this work provides a comprehensive analysis of a general periodic review production inventory model with random variable yield existence of an order point whose value does not depend on yield being random is proved in the single period case without specifying the yield model and using a very general cost structure when yield is a random multiple of lot size the nonorder up to optimal policy is characterized for a finite horizon model the finite horizon value functions are shown to converge to the solution of an infinite horizon functional equation and the infinite horizon order point is shown to be no smaller than when yield is certain

price competition under mixed multinomial logit demand functions in this paper we postulate a general class of price competition models with mixed multinomial logit demand functions under affine cost functions in these models the market is partitioned into a finite set of market segments we characterize the equilibrium behavior of this class of models in the case where each product in the market is sold by a separate independent firm we identify a simple and very broadly satisfied condition under which a pure nash equilibrium exists and the set of nash equilibria coincides with the solutions of the system of first order condition equations a property of essential importance to empirical studies this condition specifies that in every market segment each firm captures less than 50 of the potential customer population when pricing at a specific level that under the condition is an upper bound for a rational price choice for the firm irrespective of the competitors prices we show that under a somewhat stronger but still broadly satisfied version of the abov

does predicted rebound depend on distinguishing between energy and energy services pour analyser le role des services energetiques et des combustibles dans l effet de relance de la consommation d energie liee a des actions d amelioration de l efficacite energetique plusieurs approches sont utilisees et comparees celle de cobb douglas celle de leontief et celle de la croissance equilibree

the choice theory approach to market research this paper surveys economic choice theory stressing developments that permit use of data from psychometric and conjoint experiments to produce market demand forecasts alternatives to the widely used multinomial logit model are summarized and a new method for estimating multinomial probits is described an integration of choice models with attitudinal scaling and perceptual mapping within a latent variable system is described estimation of such systems under either random effects or fixed effects descriptions of heterogeneity across individuals is discussed issues in the use of choice models to describe responses from conjoint experiments are presented new regression diagnostic tests for the consistency of multinomial logit representations are discussed

the energy rebound effect in china s light industry a translog cost function approach abstract china is in its industrialization and urbanization development stage which requires strong energy support with the largest population in the world the energy endowment of china is relatively small therefore energy conservation is one of the key tools for china s sustainable development and energy security when making policies for conservation the chinese government needs to deal with rebound effect carefully in 2012 china s light industry consumed 316 million tons of coal equivalents accounting for 9 percent of the country s total energy consumption which is about the total amount of energy consumed by south korea based on the translog cost function the magnitude of rebound effect in china s light industry is estimated for the first time using the dynamic ordinary least squares and seemingly unrelated regression methods considering the asymmetric effects of energy prices on energy consumption the rebound effect is approximately 37 7 and all the inputs are substitutes except for labor and energy the different magnitude of rebound effect between light and heavy industry is discussed and some policy implications are provided for more effective energy conservation allowing for the rebound effect

note the newsvendor model with endogenous demand this paper considers a firm s price and inventory policy when it faces uncertain demand that depends on both price and inventory level the authors extend the classic newsvendor model by assuming that expected utility maximizing consumers choose between visiting the firm and consuming an exogenous outside option the outside option represents the utility the consumer forgoes when she chooses to visit the firm before knowing whether or not the product will be available the authors investigate both the case in which the firm s price is exogenous and the case in which price is chosen optimally the paper makes two contributions first the authors show that the firm holds more inventories provides a higher fill rate attracts more customers and earns higher profits when it internalizes the effect of its inventory on demand second the authors show that in the endogenous price case the firm s two dimensional decision problem can be reduced to two sequential single variable optimizations as a result the endogenous price case is as easy to solve as the exogenous price case

an empirical study of direct rebound effect for passenger transport in urban china transport sector accounts for about 8 of total energy consumption in china and this share will likely increase in the visible future improving energy efficiency has been considered as a major way for reducing transport energy use whereas its effectiveness might be affected by the rebound effect this paper estimates the direct rebound effect for passenger transport in urban china by using the linear approximation of the almost ideal demand system model and simulation analysis our empirical results reveal the existence of direct rebound effect for passenger transport in urban china a majority of the expected reduction in transport energy consumption from efficiency improvement could be offset due to the existence of rebound effect we have further investigated the relationship between the magnitude of direct rebound effect and households expenditure it was found that the direct rebound effect for passenger transport tends to decline with the increase of per capita household consumption expenditure

on sales effort and pricing decisions under alternative risk criteria abstract in the literature different risk criteria are proposed for risk averse decision making but it is often unclear which risk criteria should be used and what their differences may be this study investigates this problem when a risk averse make to order firm decides its pricing and sales effort two factors affecting demand we consider alternative risk criteria commonly used in the literature namely expected utility theory eut mean variance mv mean semideviation ms value at risk var conditional value at risk cvar and loss aversion la we find that all of these criteria lead to similar qualitative behaviors regarding how risk loss averse decisions deviate from risk neutral ones a particularly interesting result is that the form of demand randomness i e additive or multiplicative can completely reverse the effect of risk loss aversion in certain cases we also find that the risk aversion models i e eut mv ms var and cvar are essentially equivalent in inducing the same set of optimal solutions under adverse market states however loss aversion is a mild version of risk aversion in that the la model can only lead to a subset of the solutions generated by other models these results may not be valid for other applications such as the newsvendor pricing problem so we can conclude that the relationship between alternative risk criteria is case sensitive and should be evaluated more carefully

a static approximation for dynamic demand substitution with applications in a competitive market we propose a static approximation of dynamic demand substitution behavior based on a fluid network model and a service inventory mapping this approximation greatly enhances our ability to analyze the interdependent inventory service price and product assortment decisions in noncompetitive and competitive scenarios with demand substitution we demonstrate that the approximation is well behaved and then apply it to two previously intractable applications first we study a price and service competition between single product retailers after establishing a unique pure strategy nash equilibrium we find that competition results in lower price higher demand and a higher level of inventory we also observe that the aggregate profit and inventory level increase to positive constants as the number of retailers goes to infinity second we study a duopolistic competition on price service and product assortment we establish a pure strategy nash equilibrium for the product assortment competition and identify a condition for uniqueness we find that competition on both price and product assortment results in lower price and less variety for each competitor but the total number of products and the aggregate inventory level in a duopoly market are both likely to be higher than in a monopolistic market

cooperation among competitors a comparison of cost sharing mechanisms abstract in this paper we investigate the consequences of using outcome based versus ex ante based cost sharing mechanisms in terms of competing firms profitability and total welfare we consider two firms making a joint expenditure which can positively affect firms demand and or unit operating costs while competing in the final market by setting either price or quantity we compare two outcome based cost sharing mechanisms i e quantity proportional qp and total margin proportional tm with the more competitive fixed share fs mechanism where cost sharing is set up on an ex ante basis we show that outcome based mechanisms and even a fully collusive behavior induced by the optimal cost sharing mechanism might actually enhance total welfare as compared with the more competitive fs mechanism we also find that although the fs mechanism is never more preferable than the tm mechanism it can lead to higher profits than the qp mechanism when competition is mild these results can support firms cooperating with competitors in the choice of the cost sharing mechanism as well as provide important implications to policy makers

demand disruption and coordination of the supply chain with a dominant retailer this paper develops two coordination models of a supply chain consisting of one manufacturer one dominant retailer and multiple fringe retailers to investigate how to coordinate the supply chain after demand disruption we consider two coordination schedules linear quantity discount schedule and groves wholesale price schedule we find that under the linear quantity discount schedule the manufacturer only needs to adjust the maximum variable wholesale price after demand disruption for each case of the disrupted amount of demand the higher the market share of the dominant retailer the lower its average wholesale price and the subsidy will be under the linear quantity discount schedule while the higher its fraction of the supply chain s profit will be under groves wholesale price schedule when the increased amount of demand is very large and production cost is sufficiently low linear quantity discount schedule is better for the manufacturer however when the production cost is sufficiently large groves wholesale price schedule is always better we also find that the disrupted amount of demand largely affects the allocation of the supply chain s profit

statistical learning of service dependent demand in a multiperiod newsvendor setting we study an inventory system wherein a customer may leave the seller s market after experiencing an inventory stockout traditionally researchers and practitioners assume a single penalty cost to model this customer behavior of stockout aversion recently a stream of researchers explicitly model this customer behavior and support the traditional penalty cost approach we enrich this literature by studying the statistical learning of service dependent demand we build and solve four models a baseline model where the seller can observe the demand distribution a second model where the seller cannot observe the demand distribution but statistically learns the demand distribution a third model where the seller can learn or pay to obtain the exact information of the demand distribution and a fourth model where demand in excess of available inventory is lost and unobserved interestingly we find that all four models support the traditional penalty cost approach this result confirms the use of a state independent stockout penalty cost in the presence of demand learning more strikingly the first three models imply the same stockout penalty cost which is larger than the stockout penalty cost implied by the last model

price competition for retailers with profit and revenue targets abstract price competition for retailers has been extensively studied in the literature assuming the objective of expected profit maximization in this paper we make a major contribution by studying price competition for retailers with both profit and revenue targets consequently each retailer maximizes her profit and revenue probability namely the probability of achieving the profit and revenue targets simultaneously more specifically we analyze a scenario where two competing retailers purchase a perishable product from a common supplier and sell to a common market employing the isoelastic demand model we derive the closed form solutions of the optimal order quantity the optimal selling price and the maximal profit and revenue probability for each retailer it is shown that when revenue is a relevant performance measure positive and non positive salvage values lead to different optima for competing retailers moreover as price elasticity and or price competition intensity becomes higher the optimal retail price decreases and the optimal order quantity increases for each retailer

the rebound effect for heavy industry empirical evidence from china abstract energy efficiency improvement will reduce the effective price of energy services and hence at least partially mitigate original expected energy conservation therefore the magnitude of rebound effect is important for the design and timing of an effective energy conservation policy under the framework of translog cost share equations we estimates the direct rebound effect for heavy industry in china for the first time by conducting an empirical research on the relationship between the direct rebound effect and the ease with which energy services can substitute for other inputs additionally asymmetric price responses are specified in the model for the rebound effect estimation empirical results in our paper indicate that the rebound effect for heavy industry in china is about 74 3 this reveals that energy efficiency improvement can save energy to a certain degree since the rebound effect is less than 100 back fire but most of the expected reduction in heavy industry energy consumption is mitigated these findings prove that energy pricing reforms and energy taxes should be further implemented to achieve effective energy conservation in china s 12th five years plan

joint pricing production decisions in supply chains of complementary products with uncertain demand consider n manufacturers each producing a different product and selling it to a market either directly or through a common retailer the n products are perfectly complementary in the sense that they are always sold and consumed jointly or in sets of one unit of each demand for the products during a selling season is both price sensitive and uncertain each of the n manufacturers faces the problem of choosing a production quantity and a selling price for his product two settings are considered regarding the decision sequence of the n manufacturers they are either simultaneous or sequential the retailer when present employs a consignment sales contract with revenue sharing to bind her relationship with the manufacturers and to extract profit for herself using a multiplicative demand model in this paper we fully characterize individual firms decisions in equilibria under each of the two game settings and derive closed form performance measures both for the channel and for individual channel members these closed form solutions allow us to explore the effects of channel structure and parameters on firms decisions and performance that lead to conclusions of managerial interest

when is servitization a profitable competitive strategy abstract although servitization has emerged as a new competitive strategy for manufacturers there has been little research about product level servitization we investigate the competition between two channels one separately providing both goods and services and the other providing inseparable servitized goods through a game theoretic approach two critical parameters to understand competition between the two channels will be proposed 1 service dependency a degree of dependency of physical goods upon services and 2 channel substitutability a degree of substitution between conventional channels and servitized one the study reveals that the servitization strategy is a better choice for a manufacturer selling physical goods only when the goods require a higher level of service i e high service dependency and when the competition between the two channels is more severe i e high channel substitutability in addition obtaining cost efficiency is found to be an important factor to achieve higher competitive advantage over the other channel

dynamic pricing with uncertain production cost an alternating move approach abstract this article studies a two firm dynamic pricing model with random production costs the firms produce the same perishable products over an infinite time horizon when production or operation costs are random in each period each firm determines its price and production levels based on its current production cost and its opponent s previous price level we use an alternating move game to model this problem and show that there exists a unique subgame perfect nash equilibrium in production and pricing decisions we provide a closed form solution for the firm s pricing policy finally we study the game in the case of incomplete information when both or one of the firms do not have access to the current prices charged by their opponents

technical note robust newsvendor competition under asymmetric information we generalize analysis of competition among newsvendors to a setting in which competitors possess asymmetric information about future demand realizations and this information is limited to knowledge of the support of demand distribution in such a setting traditional expectation based optimization criteria are not adequate and therefore we focus on the alternative criterion used in the robust optimization literature the absolute regret minimization we show existence and derive closed form expressions for the robust optimization nash equilibrium solution for a game with an arbitrary number of players this solution allows us to gain insight into the nature of robust asymmetric newsvendor competition we show that the competitive solution in the presence of information asymmetry is an intuitive extension of the robust solution for the monopolistic newsvendor problem which allows us to distill the impact of both competition and information asymmetry in addition we show that contrary to the intuition a competing newsvendor does not necessarily benefit from having better information about its own demand distribution than its competitor has

technological progress and rebound effect in china s nonferrous metals industry an empirical study as one of china s mainstay and six major energy intensive industries the nonferrous metals industry faces the intense contradiction between economic growth and energy environment constraints technological progress does not only realize the energy savings but also causes rebound effect by promoting output growth although the rebound effect is an important topic there is still very little empirical research that focuses on the nonferrous metals industry in china using the lmdi method and the total factor productivity model to calculate parameters we estimate the size of the rebound effect in china s nonferrous metals industry over the period 1985 2014 according to the results the average rebound effect is approximately 83 02 with a downward trend which indicates that most of the expected energy savings are mitigated the rebounds with a strong fluctuation are comparatively discussed in various periods suggesting that china cannot count only on technological progress to save energy and reduce emission furthermore the government should apply economic instruments such as energy pricing mechanism reform resource tax and carbon tax as supplements to realize the targets of energy conservation and emission reduction additionally optimizing sub sector structure and promoting substitution also play a significant role in the mitigation of the rebound effect

technological progress and energy rebound effect in china s textile industry evidence and policy implications abstract although energy efficiency improvement can reduce energy consumption reduction of the effective price will also increase the demand for energy services part of this reduction is then offset because of the energy efficiency improvement the magnitude of this energy rebound effect is one of the important factors that must be considered in the formulation and implementation of energy policies the textile industry is a traditional pillar industry in china it is an important part of the national economy and contributes significantly to international trade this study uses the morishima elasticities of substitution mes model combined with asymmetric energy prices trans log cost function and other econometric methods to establish a framework to measure the rebound effect in china s textile industry the empirical results of this paper indicate that the rebound effect for china s textile industry is 20 991 this reveals that energy efficiency improvement is conducive for energy saving to a certain degree notwithstanding these results also prove that energy efficiency improvement is not the only way for china s textile industry to realize energy saving and emission reduction finally based on the analysis future policy priorities are suggested

inventory control in a fluctuating demand environment we present an inventory model where the demand rate varies with an underlying state of the world variable this variable can represent economic fluctuations or stages in the product life cycle for example we derive some basic characteristics of optimal policies and develop algorithms for computing them in addition we show that certain monotonicity patterns in the problem data are reflected in the optimal policies

energy consumption for space heating a discrete continuous approach energy demand for space heating is estimated using a discrete continuous choice model which focuses on the relationship between the choice of heating equipment and energy consumption the model is estimated on norwegian micro data and the two stages of the model are estimated simultaneously the capital cost and the operating cost of the heating systems are both found to have a significant impact on the choice of heating system furthermore the results show that household characteristics are important variables in residential energy models energy price elasticities and income elasticities are also estimated

estimating the rebound effect in us manufacturing energy consumption abstract the energy price shocks of the 1970s are usually assumed to have increased the search for new energy saving technologies where eventual gains in energy efficiencies will reduce the real per unit price of energy services and hence the consumption of energy will rise and partially offset the initial reduction in the usage of energy sources this is the rebound effect which is estimated for the us manufacturing sector using time series data applying the dynamic ols method dols when allowing for asymmetric price effects the rebound effect is found to be approximately 24 for the us manufacturing sector

competition under generalized attraction models applications to quality competition under yield uncertainty we characterize the equilibrium behavior in a broad class of competition models in which the competing firms market shares are given by an attraction model and the aggregate sales in the industry depend on the aggregate attraction value according to a general function each firm s revenues and costs are proportional with its expected sales volume with a cost rate that depends on the firm s chosen attraction value according to an arbitrary increasing function whereas most existing competition papers with attraction models can be viewed as special cases of this general model we apply our general results to a new set of quality competition models here an industry has n suppliers of a given product who compete for the business of one or more buyers each of the suppliers encounters an uncertain yield factor with a given general yield distribution the buyers face uncertain demands over the course of a given sales season the suppliers compete by selecting key characteristics of their yield distributions either their means their standard deviations or both these choices have implications for their per unit cost rates

analysis of an inventory system under supply uncertainty in this paper we analyze a periodic review single item inventory model under supply uncertainty the objective is to minimize expected holding and backorder costs over a finite planning horizon under the supply constraints the uncertainty in supply is modeled using a three point probability mass function the supply is either completely available partially available or the supply is unavailable machine breakdowns shortages in the capacity of the supplier strikes etc are possible causes of uncertainty in supply we demonstrate various properties of the expected cost function and show the optimality of order up to type policies using a stochastic dynamic programming formulation under the assumption of a bernoulli type supply process in which the supply is either completely available or unavailable and when the demand is deterministic and dynamic we provide a newsboy like formula which explicitly characterizes the optimal order up to levels an algorithm is given that computes the optimal inventory levels over the planning horizon extensions and computational analysis are presented for the case where the partial supply availability has positive probability of occurrence

the own wage elasticity of labor demand a meta regression analysis firms labor demand responses to wage changes are of key interest in empirical research and policy analysis however despite extensive research estimates of labor demand elasticities remain subject to considerable heterogeneity in this paper we conduct a comprehensive meta regression analysis to re assess the empirical literature on labor demand elasticities building on 942 elasticity estimates from 105 different studies we identify sources of variation in the absolute value of this elasticity heterogeneity due to the theoretical and empirical specification of the labor demand model different datasets used or sectors and countries considered explains more than 80 of the variation in the estimates we further find substantial evidence for the presence of publication selection bias as estimates of the own wage elasticity of labor demand are upwardly inflated

energy consumption and gdp in tunisia cointegration and causality analysis abstract in this paper the johansen cointegration technique is used to examine the causal relationship between per capita energy consumption pcec and per capita gross domestic product pcgdp for tunisia during the 1971 2004 period in order to test for granger causality in the presence of cointegration among the variables a vector error correction model vecm is used instead of a vector autoregressive var model our estimation results indicate that the pcgdp and pcec for tunisia are related by one cointegrating vector and that there is a long run bi directional causal relationship between the two series and a short run unidirectional causality from energy to gross domestic product gdp the source of causation in the long run is found to be the error correction terms in both directions hence an important policy implication resulting from this analysis is that energy can be considered as a limiting factor to gdp growth in tunisia conclusions for tunisia may also be relevant for a number of countries that have to go through a similar development path of increasing pressure on already scarce energy resources

inventory dynamics and supply chain coordination this paper extends the theory of supply chain incentive contracts from the static newsvendor framework of the existing literature to the simplest dynamic setting a manufacturer distributes a product through retailers who compete on both price and fill rates we show that inventory durability is the key factor in determining the underlying nature of incentive distortions and their contractual resolutions when the product is highly perishable retailers are biased toward excessive price competition and inadequate inventories vertical price floors or inventory buybacks subsidies for unsold inventory can coordinate incentives in both pricing and inventory decisions when the product is less perishable the distortion is reversed and vertical price ceilings or inventory penalties can coordinate incentives

estimating demand by using sales information inaccuracies encountered abstract demand data is integral to a company s overall information requirement this is particularly true for manufacturers and retailers with regard to capacity production and inventory planning notwithstanding the implicit inaccuracies encountered companies are predisposed to employ sales data as a primary source of information for estimating future demand in this paper by adopting a two product setting we measure inventory cost inaccuracies that arise from using sales data in estimating demand by analyzing these costs we also explore the conditions under which the resulting inaccuracies are either lessened or become acute in this context the determining rule of an induced substitution structure between the two products during stockout occasions is explicitly analyzed we use a newsboy framework in a two product environment wherein one product may be taken as a direct substitute for the other we provide necessary and sufficient optimality conditions and an extensive computational study to illustrate and support our findings and to provide additional insights on the conditions characterizing optimal stocking policies

employment and deadweight loss effects of observed nonwage labor costs i introduction nonwage labor costs consist of several mandated benefits health training accident housing plans as well as several taxes and are intended to increase workers welfare and job security however these benefits tend to come at the expense of reducing employment and deadweight losses to quantify these resulting effects one needs a reliable measure of the employment labor cost elasticity most studies conducted on this subject find low estimated values for this elasticity which contrasts with policy makers enthusiasm to reduce labor costs in this article using a peruvian matched firm workers data set we find that nonwage labor costs reduce employment measured in total hours of work by 17 for white collars and by 53 for blue collars with associated deadweight losses of 10 and 35 of total contributions revenues respectively we also compute employment losses of compliance with mandated employers and workers contributions of 4 for white collars and 12 for blue collars with respective associated deadweight losses of 2 and 6 of contribution revenues these results come from estimating the long run unconditional firm level labor demand function by a procedure that corrects for endogeneity of wages we show that unbiased estimates even using small units such as firm level data require not only that wages are exogenous but also that their unobserved determinants are uncorrelated with the unobserved determinants of labor demand this requirement is not fulfilled in the likely event pointed out by becker 1993 that larger firms are matched with more productive workers consequently an estimation that corrects for endogeneity yields a larger labor cost elasticity of labor demand than one that does not like ordinary least squares ols in the past two decades there has been intensive theoretical and empirical research on the effects of labor market frictions on job creation western european economies characterized by large job security provisions have been the center of attention of this research that has modeled these frictions as adjustment costs in labor demand bentolila and bertola 1990 hamermesh 1989 hopenhayn and rogerson 1993 nickell 1987 rendon 2004 this literature finds that the effects of eurosclerosis that is labor markets with high firing costs are ambiguous in good times sclerotic labor markets create fewer jobs than free labor markets however in bad times sclerotic labor markets reduce job destruction most of the research done in latin america has been done under these guidelines obtaining statistically significant negative effects of job security provisions on employment rates 1 furthermore using country level data for latin america and organization for economic cooperation and development countries heckman and pages serra 2000 found large effects of job security provisions on employment 2 which are robust to several specifications ols random and fixed effects the authors present their results as a strong evidence against freeman s 2000 view that job security regulations mostly affect distribution but not efficiency and advocate the substitution of job security provisions by other mechanisms that provide income security at lower efficiency and inequality costs under a classic labor demand framework and using worker and firm level data this article provides new evidence in the same direction extending the computation of the effects of job security provisions to deadweight losses hamermesh 1993 surveys several studies on the estimation of labor demand and remarks that estimates of the labor cost employment elasticity should be interpreted and compared cautiously depending on the specification adopted capital is an explanatory variable in a short run labor demand estimation it is not in a long run labor demand estimation similarly output is included in the estimation of a conditional labor demand but excluded in the estimation of an unconditional labor demand

inventory decisions for substitutable products with stock dependent demand abstract we study a retailer s inventory policy for two products the products are substitutable and have inventory dependent demand so a higher inventory level of a product increases its sales we model the joint effect of demand stimulation and product substitution on inventory decisions by considering a single period stochastic demand setting we provide the first order optimality conditions for the profit maximizing order quantities and interpret them using marginal analysis we also consider two heuristic solutions that separately account for either demand stimulation or product substitution our numerical analysis reveals that the optimal policy by appropriately using sales information that quantifies substitution and demand stimulation can produce significantly higher profits the profit benefits are lessened under certain circumstances such as when the two products have similar critical fractile values suggesting that in such instances the heuristics may be used effectively

empirical evidence of direct rebound effect in catalonia this paper reviews the empirical literature concerning the direct rebound effect in households it briefly analyzes the main theoretical and methodological aspects and finally estimates the magnitude of direct rebound effect for all energy services using electricity in households of catalonia spain using econometric techniques the main results show an estimated direct rebound effect of 35 in the short term and 49 in the long term the existence of a rebound effect reduces the effectiveness of energy efficiency policies

a general equilibrium view of global rebound effects abstract how do energy efficiency gains affect energy consumption the effects are generally called rebound effects in the literature previous studies have extensively focused on only part of the global economy to study rebound effects e g energy consumption by households one industry or one country however since the global economy is highly connected among countries these studies may lead to misleading conclusions if the rebound effects in the rest of the economy are significant recently saunders 2008 analyzes the demand side by taking the global economy as a whole wei 2007 also provides a general analysis by using cobb douglas production functions for the global economy the present article expands wei 2007 general analysis to explore the rebound effects from an economist s viewpoint by taking the global economy as a whole and applying general forms of production functions the analysis provides new insights related to rebound effects we highlight the role of energy supply as a determinant of rebound we show that the substitution between energy resources and other productive resources is more relevant to long term rebound we predict that long term rebound may be lower than short term rebound and we also discover that super conservation can happen in both the short term and the long term

the role of inventory in delivery time competition the paper operationalizes the notion of shortage cost by considering the behavior of customers and competing firms and examines the role of inventory in response time competition we start with a single firm production control model in which customers are characterized by their preferences of price quality and delivery time the optimal production inventory policy and the optimal choice between make to order and make to stock operations are determined in simple newsboy like formulas the basic model is then extended to an n firm market game in which firms compete for orders from the aspect of early delivery one could think of this setting as an oligopoly racing market the analysis shows that competition can breed a demand for produce to stock just as other economic phenomena such as economies of scale uncertainty or seasonality can induce make to stock and that delivery time competition increases the buyer s welfare while decreasing the producer s welfare

sequential correlated equilibria in stopping games in many situations such as trade in stock exchanges agents have many opportunities to act within a short interval of time the agents in such situations can often coordinate their actions in advance but coordination during the game consumes too much time an equilibrium in such situations has to be sequential in order to handle mistakes made by players in this paper we present a new solution concept for infinite horizon dynamic games which is appropriate for such situations a sequential normal form correlated approximate equilibrium under additional assumptions we show that every such game admits this kind of equilibrium

asymmetric consumer learning and inventory competition we develop a model of consumer learning and choice behavior in response to uncertain service in the marketplace learning could be asymmetric that is consumers may associate different weights with positive and negative experiences under this consumer model we characterize the steady state distribution of demand for retailers given that each retailer holds a constant in stock service level we then consider a noncooperative game in steady state between two retailers competing on the basis of their service levels the demand distributions of retailers in this game are modeled using a multiplicative aggregate market share model in which the mean demands are obtained from the steady state results for individual purchases but the model is simplified in other respects for tractability our model yields a unique pure strategy nash equilibrium we show that asymmetry in consumer learning has a significant impact on the optimal service levels market shares and profits of the retailers when retailers have different costs it also determines the extent of competitive advantage enjoyed by the lower cost retailer

combined pricing and inventory control under uncertainty this paper addresses the simultaneous determination of pricing and inventory replenishment strategies in the face of demand uncertainty more specifically we analyze the following single item periodic review model demands in consecutive periods are independent but their distributions depend on the item s price in accordance with general stochastic demand functions the price charged in any given period can be specified dynamically as a function of the state of the system a replenishment order may be placed at the beginning of some or all of the periods stockouts are fully backlogged we address both finite and infinite horizon models with the objective of maximizing total expected discounted profit or its time average value assuming that prices can either be adjusted arbitrarily upward or downward or that they can only be decreased we characterize the structure of an optimal combined pricing and inventory strategy for all of the above types of models we also develop an efficient value iteration method to compute these optimal strategies finally we report on an extensive numerical study that characterizes various qualitative properties of the optimal strategies and corresponding optimal profit values

fuel conserving and using production functions abstract this article compares eight production cost functions used or potentially useful for exploring how energy efficiency gains affect energy consumption we show the practitioner s choice of function can inadvertently pre determine results and make recommendations as to which functions are flexible enough to prevent this we also show pre selected factor substitution elasticities can similarly pre determine results to aid the comparison we decompose the energy consumption rebound effect into intensity and output income effects which also delivers insight into the mechanisms of rebound we conclude by recommending practitioners restrict themselves to either the gallant fourier or the generalized leontief symmetric generalized barnett cost functions as being sufficiently rebound flexible the translog cost function may be suitable given certain conditions and a particular form of the ces solow function is a possible but problematic candidate along the way the article provides a general methodology for similarly examining any arbitrarily defined constant returns to scale production or cost function

an elasticity approach to the newsvendor with price sensitive demand we introduce a measure of elasticity of stochastic demand called the elasticity of the lost sales rate which offers a unifying perspective on the well known newsvendor with pricing problem this new concept provides a framework to characterize structural results for coordinated and uncoordinated pricing and inventory strategies concavity and submodularity of the profit function as well as sensitivity properties of the optimal inventory and price policies are characterized by monotonicity conditions or bounds on the elasticity of the lost sales rate these elasticity conditions are satisfied by most relevant demand models in the marketing and operations literature our results unify and complement previous work on price setting newsvendor models and provide a new tool for researchers modeling stochastic price sensitive demand in other contexts

a general equilibrium model for industries with price and service competition this paper develops a stochastic general equilibrium inventory model for an oligopoly in which all inventory constraint parameters are endogenously determined we propose several systems of demand processes whose distributions are functions of all retailers prices and all retailers service levels we proceed with the investigation of the equilibrium behavior of infinite horizon models for industries facing this type of generalized competition under demand uncertainty we systematically consider the following three competition scenarios 1 price competition only here we assume that the firms service levels are exogenously chosen but characterize how the price and inventory strategy equilibrium vary with the chosen service levels 2 simultaneous price and service level competition here each of the firms simultaneously chooses a service level and a combined price and inventory strategy 3 two stage competition the firms make their competitive choices sequentially in a first stage all firms simultaneously choose a service level in a second stage the firms simultaneously choose a combined pricing and inventory strategy with full knowledge of the service levels selected by all competitors we show that in all of the above settings a nash equilibrium of infinite horizon stationary strategies exists and that it is of a simple structure provided a nash equilibrium exists in a so called reduced game we pay particular attention to the question of whether a firm can choose its service level on the basis of its own input characteristics i e its cost parameters and demand function only we also investigate under which of the demand models a firm under simultaneous competition responds to a change in the exogenously specified characteristics of the various competitors by either i adjusting its service level and price in the same direction thereby compensating for price increases decreases by offering improved inferior service or ii adjusting them in opposite directions thereby simultaneously offering better or worse prices and service

logit demand estimation under competitive pricing behavior an equilibrium framework discrete choice models of demand have typically been estimated assuming that prices are exogenous since unobservable to the researcher product attributes such as coupon availability may impact consumer utility as well as price setting by firms we treat prices as endogenous specifically prices are assumed to be the equilibrium outcomes of nash competition among manufacturers and retailers to empirically validate the assumptions we estimate logit demand systems jointly with equilibrium pricing equations for two product categories using retail scanner data and cost data on factor prices in each category we find statistical evidence of price endogeneity we also find that the estimates of the price response parameter and the brand specific constants are generally biased downward when the endogeneity of prices is ignored our framework provides explicit estimates of the value created by a brand i e the difference between consumers willingness to pay for a brand and its cost of production we develop theoretical propositions about the relationship between value creation and competitive advantage for logit demand systems and use our empirical results to illustrate how firms use alternative value creation strategies to accomplish competitive advantage

finding all equilibria in games of strategic complements i present a simple and fast algorithm that finds all the pure strategy nash equilibria in games with strategic complementarities this is the first non trivial algorithm for finding all pure strategy nash equilibria

optimal inventory policies under service sensitive demand the service level provided by a retailer influences demand and sales in several ways in the short run sales can fall short of demand when customers experience stockouts and choose not to backorder in the long run demand itself may decline as customers who experience excessive stockouts shift permanently to more reliable sources the traditional approach to determining inventory policies assumes a fixed stockout cost attributable to each stockout occasion in practice stockout costs are difficult to determine at least in part because they reflect the long term loss of demand due to inadequate service in this paper we model the response of long run demand to the service level of the retailer and determine optimal order up to inventory policies in the presence of service sensitive demand we show under what conditions inventory policy is sensitive to both the mean and the variance of long run demand

analysis of an inventory system under backorder correlated deterministic demand and geometric supply process abstract in this article we propose a single item periodic review model that investigates the effects of changes in the demand process that occur after stockout realizations we investigate a system where the demands in successive periods are deterministic but affected by the backorder realizations in order to capture the effects of changes in the demand process we use a geometric type supply availability we analytically derive the necessary components for obtaining profit related performance measures and provide computational analysis

the effectiveness of energy efficiency improvement in a developing country rebound effect of residential electricity use in south korea abstract the government of south korea considers an energy efficiency improvement policy an effective economic measure for climate change like many other governments but it is unaware of any rebound effect the unexpected result of energy efficiency improvement so the rebound effect of residential electricity use in south korea was estimated using two different scales in this paper at the macro level the rebound effect was estimated indirectly by using price elasticity and at the micro level the rebound effect of individual home appliances was estimated directly by using a non linear relationship between energy efficiency and energy use at the macro level the long and short term results of rebound effect were estimated at 30 and 38 respectively also at the micro level the rebound effect of air conditioners was 57 70 while refrigerators showed only a composite of rebound and income effects finally there was no backfire effect and efficiency improvement brought energy reduction in conclusion these suggest that rebound effect is an important factor that the government of south korea must consider when planning its energy efficiency improvement policy

the rebound effect some empirical evidence from india abstract the present paper looks at the effect of technical efficiency gains on energy use in three sectors in india at varying levels of aggregation high positive rebound implies that efficient technology unless supplemented by appropriate pricing policy will not be successful in containing demand however the main purpose of the paper is to focus on the unique mechanism of rebound that may occur in developing countries with unmet demand

backorder penalty cost coefficient b what could it be abstract the classical economic order quantity eoq model with planned penalized backorders pb relies on postulating a value for the backorder penalty cost coefficient b which is supposed to reflect the intangible adverse effect of the future loss of customer goodwill following a stockout recognizing that the effect of the future loss of customer goodwill should be not a direct penalty cost but a change in future demand schwartz 1966 a new approach to stockout penalties management science 12 12 b538 b544 modified the classical eoq pb model by eliminating the backorder penalty cost term from the objective function and assuming that the long run demand rate is a decreasing strictly convex function of the customer s disappointment factor defined as the complement of the demand fill rate following a stockout which in turn is an increasing strictly convex function of the demand fill rate he called the new model a perturbed demand pd model schwartz provided convincing justification for his pd model and presented several variations of it in a follow up paper but he did not solve any of these models in this paper we solve schwartz s original pd model and its variations and we discuss the implications of their solutions thus filling a gap in the literature left by schwartz moreover having been convinced that schwartz s approach is more valid than the classical approach for representing the effect of the loss of customer goodwill following a stockout but also recognizing that the classical approach is far more popular than the pd approach because of its simplicity and because of tradition we use the solution of the pd model to infer the value of b in the classical model thus providing one possible answer to the question what could b be a noteworthy implication of the solution of schwartz s original pd model is that the optimal fill rate is always 0 or 1 rendering the inferred value of b in the classical model 0 or respectively suspecting that the property of the pd function which is most likely responsible for producing this bang bang type of result is strict convexity we show that for the case where the pd function is proportional to an integer power say n of the fill rate the optimal fill rate is always 0 or 1 if and only if n 1 in which case the pd function is strictly convex in the fill rate

after sales service competition in a supply chain does uncertainty affect the conflict between profit maximization and customer satisfaction abstract after sales services are a key strategic tool in the durable consumer product market they allow a manufacturer and a retailer to capture more sales and profit less obvious however is how the uncertainty of the customer s needs for after sales services influences after sales service decisions as an extension of kurata and nam s 2010 international journal of production economics 127 1 136 146 work in this paper we explore the effect of uncertainty on after sales service decisions by comparing several information structures in a two stage supply chain the model presented in this paper demonstrates that uncertainty may temporally alleviate the discrepancy between customers optimal service level and a firm s service decisions based on maximizing profits referred to here as accidental outperformance however ultimately uncertainty will never improve supply chain performance we determine probabilities that such accidental outperformance may mislead the firm into making erroneous after sales service decisions due to misunderstandings regarding uncertainty in addition our analysis shows that a firm s effort to provide efficient service operations will increase the chance of accidental outperformance based on the analytical results we also provide several practical insights for business

the impact of increased efficiency in the industrial use of energy a computable general equilibrium analysis for the united kingdom the conventional wisdom is that improving energy efficiency will lower energy use however there is an extensive debate in the energy economics policy literature concerning rebound effects these occur because an improvement in energy efficiency produces a fall in the effective price of energy services the response of the economic system to this price fall at least partially offsets the expected beneficial impact of the energy efficiency gain in this paper we use an economy energy environment computable general equilibrium cge model for the uk to measure the impact of a 5 across the board improvement in the efficiency of energy use in all production sectors we identify rebound effects of the order of 30 50 but no backfire no increase in energy use however these results are sensitive to the assumed structure of the labour market key production elasticities the time period under consideration and the mechanism through which increased government revenues are recycled back to the economy

optimal quality and quantity provisions for centralized vs decentralized distribution market size uncertainty effects abstract we provide insights on how market size uncertainty affects the optimal quality quantity provision in distribution channels when consumers are heterogeneous in their willingness to pay for product quality in this context we denote the difference between the manufacturer s optimal quality quantity provision for a centralized channel and its optimal analog for a decentralized channel as the quality quantity differential we find that market size uncertainty creates or increases the quantity differential but it does not affect the differential s polarity in contrast market size uncertainty decreases the quality differential and it does so to the extent that depending on the level of consumer heterogeneity it reverses the differential s polarity moreover we find that the higher the inherent uncertainty level the more pronounced are the effects we likewise find that the effects of market size uncertainty are amplified if the notion of consumer heterogeneity is replaced with retail level competition

the greenhouse effect the fallacies in the energy efficiency solution abstract the view that widespread improvements in energy efficiency can by themselves do anything to halt the build up of greenhouse gases around the globe is fundamentally unsound it is based on the same fallacies that underlie the claim that energy savings from improving efficiency can substitute for new energy supply the paper by keepin and kats1 claiming that per tonne of coal not burned improvements in energy efficiency are more cost effective than substituting nuclear for coal fired power is therefore an irrelevancy as far as this debate is concerned reductions is energy intensity of output that are not damaging to the economy are associated with increases not decreases in energy demand at the macroeconomic level even within the boundaries of their own flawed approach their attempt2 to refute the critique of their thesis made by jones3 was little more than misdirected grape shot with no discernable connected thread of argument

price versus production postponement capacity and competition this article presents a comparative analysis of possible postponement strategies in a two stage decision model where firms make three decisions capacity investment production inventory quantity and price typically investments are made while the demand curve is uncertain the strategies differ in the timing of the operational decisions relative to the realization of uncertainty we show how competition uncertainty and the timing of operational decisions influence the strategic investment decision of the firm and its value in contrast to production postponement price postponement makes the investment and production inventory decisions relatively insensitive to uncertainty this suggests that managers can make optimal capacity decisions by deterministic reasoning if they have some price flexibility under price postponement additional postponement of production has relatively small incremental value therefore it may be worthwhile to consider flexible ex post pricing before production postponement reengineering while more postponement increases firm value it is counterintuitive that this also makes the optimal capacity decision more sensitive to uncertainty we highlight the different impact of more timely information which leads to higher investment and inventories and of reduced demand uncertainty which decreases investment and inventories our analysis suggests appropriateness conditions for simple make to stock and make to order strategies we also present technical sufficiency and uniqueness conditions under price postponement these results extend to oligopolistic and perfect competition for which pure equilibria are derived interestingly the relative value of operational postponement techniques seems to increase as the industry becomes more competitive

analysis of a q r t inventory policy with deterministic and random yields when future supply is uncertain abstract this paper considers a stochastic inventory model where the quantity ordered sometimes may not be available due to strikes etc we represent the supplier s availability process as a two state continuous time markov chain where one state corresponds to availability and the other state corresponds to unavailability of the supplier the problem is to determine the reorder point the order quantity when the system is found in on state and how long to wait before the next order if system is in off state it is assumed that the state of the system is identified at a cost using the renewal reward theorem we construct the objective function as the long run average cost numerical sensitivity analysis results are provided we also analyze the problem when the yield i e amount received if available is random and discuss an example with beta distributed yield

rationalizability learning and equilibrium in games with strategic complementarities we study a rich class of noncooperative games that includes models of oligopoly competition macroeconomic coordination failures arms races bank runs technology adoption and diffusion r d competition pretrial bargaining coordination in teams and many others for all these games the sets of pure strategy nash equilibria correlated equilibria and rationalizable strategies have identical bounds also for a class of models of dynamic adaptive choice behavior that encompasses both best response dynamics and bayesian learning the players choices lie eventually within the same bounds these bounds are shown to vary monotonically with certain exogenous parameters we study the class of noncooperative supermodular games introduced by topkis 1979 and further analyzed by vives 1985 1989 who also pointed out the importance of these games in industrial economics supermodular games are games in which each player s strategy set is partially ordered the marginal returns to increasing one s strategy rise with increases in the competitors strategies so that the game exhibits strategic complementarity 2 and if a player s strategies are multidimensional marginal returns to any one com ponent of the player s strategy rise with increases in the other components this class turns out to encompass many of the most important economic applications of noncooperative game theory in macroeconomics diamond s 1982 search model and bryant s 1983 1984 rational expectations models can be represented as supermodular games in each of these models more activity by some members of the economy raises the returns to increased levels of activity by others in oligopoly theory some models of bertrand oligopoly with differentiated products qualify as supermodu lar games in these games when a firm s competitors raise their prices the marginal profitability of the firm s own price increase rises a similar structure is present in games of new technology adoption such as those of dybvig and spatt 1983 farrell and saloner 1986 and katz and shapiro 1986 when more users hook into a communication system or more manufacturers adopt an interface standard the marginal return to others of doing the same often rises similarly in some specifications of the bank runs model introduced by diamond and dybvig 1983 when more depositors withdraw their funds from a bank it is more worthwhile for other depositors to do the same in the warrant exercise

periodic review production models with variable capacity random yield and uncertain demand we investigate a production planning problem in a periodic review environment with variable production capacity random yields and uncertain demand the implications of random yields and variable capacity for lot sizing previously have been explored separately but not jointly many production environments are likely to be subject to both types of uncertainties to minimize the total discounted expected costs production holding and shortage costs we formulate the problem as a stochastic dynamic program for the finite horizon problem we prove that the objective function is quasi convex and that the structure of the optimal policy is characterized by a single critical point for the initial stock level at each period that is if the initial stock is greater than this critical point the optimal planned production is zero otherwise it is greater than zero expressions for solving the critical point and the optimal planned production are obtained we further show that the solution for the finite horizon problem converges to that of the infinite horizon problem

optimal and approximate policies in multiperiod multilocation inventory models with transshipments this paper examines the effects on the optimal ordering policy and its cost of allowing for interactions among retail outlets specifically transshipments are allowed as recourse actions occurring after demands are realized but before they must be satisfied the resultant savings in holding and shortage costs are balanced against the costs of transshipment a base stock ordering policy is optimal for this model if the final period base stock order up to point is nonnegative then it will be the base stock order up to point for all periods unfortunately it can be found analytically only for two special cases where either the cost parameters are equal at every outlet or there are only two outlets these two special cases are used to validate a heuristic solution technique employing monte carlo integration which is then compared to an easily calculated base policy in order to gauge the contribution of this model the additional savings from using this heuristic policy are significant particularly for problems with many retail outlets and low transshipment costs

manufacturer incentives to improve retail service levels in this paper we provide a solution to the problem of how a manufacturer can provide an incentive to a separately owned retailer to raise its service level above the level it would choose on its own we analyze the effects the manufacturer s incentive has on the individual profits of the retailer and manufacturer as well as their joint profits our work is an application of game theory in which we tackle the problem posed by separate ownership of the two firms and the resulting conflict over the gains from cooperation we utilize a plausible model of service sensitive demand one which is relatively free of ad hoc assumptions our approach has the strength that it proposes a credible solution to the problem of manufacturer retailer cooperation when profits are sensitive to retail service levels our results indicate that the optimal level of incentive for the manufacturer and the resulting shares of the manufacturer and retailer in increased profits are particularly sensitive to the underlying variability of demand and to the relative variability of additional demand induced by higher service levels

the rebound effect for space heating empirical evidence from austria abstract the major focus of this paper is to investigate the magnitude of the rebound effect for space heating in austria different approaches are applied and compared the most important result of this investigation is that despite the fact that all approaches applied have their weaknesses and some results were not highly significant the final outcomes of the different approaches show quite good coincidence they provide evidence of a rebound effect between 20 and 30 the most important conclusions for energy policy makers are i standards with respect to building codes are very important tools to increase the thermal quality of new buildings ii due to prevailing low energy prices a triggering tool which may be rebates or loans has to be implemented to increase the efficiency of the building stock

energy efficiency fallacies revisited abstract a number of governments including that of the uk subscribe to the belief that a national program devoted to raising energy efficiency throughout the economy provides a costless indeed profitable route to meeting international environmental obligations this is a seductive policy it constitutes the proverbial free lunch not only avoiding politically unpopular measures like outlawing taxing or rationing offending fuels or expanding non carboniferous sources of energy like nuclear power but doing so with economic benefit the author of this contribution came to doubt the validity of this solution when it was offered as a way of mitigating the effect of the opec price hikes of the 1970 maintaining that economically justified improvement in energy efficiency led to higher levels of energy consumption at the economy wide level than in the absence of any efficiency response more fundamentally he argues that there is no case for preferentially singling out energy from among all the resources available to us for efficiency maximization the least damaging policy is to determine targets enact the restrictive measures needed to curb consumption and then leave it to consumers intermediate and final to reallocate all the resources available to them to best effect subject to the new enacted constraints and any others they might be experiencing there is no reason to suppose that it is right for all the economic adjustment following a new resource constraint to take the form of improvements in the productivity of that resource alone as many others have argued any action to impose resource constraint entails an inevitable economic cost in the shape of a reduction in production and consumption possibilities there would be no free lunch in the last few years debate about the validity of these contentions has blossomed especially under the influence of writers on the western side of the atlantic in this contribution the author outlines the original arguments for questioning whether raised efficiency leads to lower consumption reports more recent developments and offers some insights as food for further thought