where has all the bias gone detecting gender bias in the intrahousehold allocation of educational expenditure abstract the reliability of the household consumption based engel curve methodology in detecting gender bias has been called into question because it has generally failed to confirm bias even where it exists this article seeks to find explanations for this failure by exploiting a data set that has educational expenditure information at the individual level and also by aggregation at the household level i find that in the basic education age groups the discriminatory mechanism in education is via differential enrollment rates for boys and girls education expenditure conditional on enrollment is equal for boys and girls the engel curve method fails for two reasons first it models a single equation for the two stage process second even when we make individual and household level expenditure equations as similar as possible the household level equation still fails to pick up gender bias in about one third of the cases where the individual level equation shows significant bias this article

the real effects of financial integration abstract this paper shows how correlations in gdp fluctuations rise with financial integration finance serves to increase international correlations in both consumption and gdp fluctuations which explains the persistent gap between the two in the data a quantity puzzle the positive association between financial integration and gdp correlation constitutes a puzzle as theory suggests a negative relation if anything nevertheless it prevails in the data even after the effects of finance on trade and specialization are accounted for

credit market constraints consumption smoothing and the accumulation of durable production assets in low income countries investments in bullocks in india in this paper we formulate and estimate a finite horizon structural dynamic model of agricultural investment behavior that incorporates the major features of low income agricultural environments income uncertainty constraints on borrowing and rental markets and the use of investment assets to generate income and smooth consumption the model is fit to longitudinal indian household data on farm profits bullock stocks and pump sets the estimated structural parameters are used to assess the effects on the life cycle accumulation of bullocks agricultural profits and welfare associated with complete markets and bullock liquidity and with second best policies that provide assured sources of income to farmers and weather insurance

women s work and economic development using a cross country dataset and microdata from india and thailand we examine how women s work status changes with economic development several clear patterns emerge women s labor force participation first declines and then rises with development women move from work in family enterprises to work as paid employees fertility declines and gender gaps in education narrow women s education levels and those of their spouses appear to be important determinants of women s labor market activities broad welfare indicators such as mortality rates and education levels indicate that women s well being improves on average with development both in absolute terms and relative to men

information shocks liquidity shocks jumps and price discovery evidence from the u s treasury market in this paper we identify jumps in u s treasury bond t bond prices and investigate what causes such unexpected large price changes in particular we examine the relative importance of macroeconomic news announcements versus variation in market liquidity in explaining the observed jumps in the u s treasury market we show that while jumps occur mostly at prescheduled macroeconomic announcement times announcement surprises have limited power in explaining bond price jumps our analysis further shows that preannouncement liquidity shocks such as changes in the bid ask spread and market depth have significant predictive power for jumps the predictive power is significant even after controlling for information shocks finally we present evidence that post jump order flow is less informative relative to the case where there is no jump at announcement

child fostering in africa when labor and schooling motives may coexist abstract the paper proposes a theoretical framework for understanding purposive child fostering in africa whereby a non orphaned child is sent to live temporarily with relatives in the model adults decide whether to foster in or out a child in conjunction with other household choices e g own time allocation between market and non market activities children s amount of work and schooling by allowing for positive externalities from fostering and thus asymmetric motives for fostering in labor and out human capital the proposed framework predicts that school age children are sent to better off households and that some families may foster in and out simultaneously the model identifies the conditions under which all actors involved children included may benefit from fostering arrangements but also points to situations where fostering may become an opportunity to marginalize a subset of children the paper aims to provide a sound theoretical foundation that sheds light on why there exists mixed empirical evidence on the effects of fostering on children s well being and cautions against demonizing non parent residence as unequivocally detrimental to children

son preference children s gender and parents time allocation evidence from china this article investigates the effect of children s gender on parents time allocation in developing countries due to the long existing tradition of son preference a collective model generates pred

exchange rate volatility and intervention implications of the theory of optimum currency areas we show that variables pointed to by the theory of optimum currency areas ocas help to explain patterns of exchange rate variability and intervention across countries but oca considerations affect exchange market pressures and intervention in different ways exchange market pressures mainly reflect asymmetric shocks while intervention largely reflects the variables that oca theory suggests cause countries to value stable exchange rates small size and the extent of trade links intervention and exchange market pressure also vary with the structure of the international monetary system

income shocks and gender gaps in education evidence from uganda abstract this paper uses exogenous variation in rainfall across districts in uganda to estimate the causal effects of household income shocks on children s enrollment and academic performance conditional on gender i find negative deviations in rainfall from the long term mean to have negative and highly significant effects on female enrollment in primary schools and the effect grows stronger for older girls i find no effect of rainfall variation on the enrollment of boys and young girls moreover i find that when schooling is free of charge and both marginal boys and girls are enrolled a negative income shock has an adverse effect on the test scores of female students while boys are not affected the results imply that households respond to income shocks by varying the amount of schooling and resources provided to girls while boys are to a large extent sheltered a finding consistent with a model where parents values of child labor differ across sexes

poverty and public policy the problem of poverty is particularly acute in india with 14 of the world s population we have the misfortune of having almost twice as large a share of the world s poor indeed as i shall presently underline the question of poverty and its amelioration has been at the center of our concerns from the beginning of our planning efforts almost four decades ago little therefore can be said on it that some distinguished indian economist has not already said in some ways therefore to talk on the design of public policy for poverty to an indian audience is to carry coal to newcastle or as the old saying goes to teach your grandmother how to suck eggs nonetheless i hope to provide a fresh perspective by putting the problem into an explicit analytical framework that permits alternative policy designs to be sharply defined and contrasted i also intend to draw on international experience to put our efforts and problems into both historical and comparative perspectives

exchange rate pass through exchange rate volatility and exchange rate disconnect abstract this paper explores the hypothesis that high volatility of real and nominal exchange rates may be due to the fact that local currency pricing eliminates the pass through from changes in exchange rates to consumer prices exchange rates may be highly volatile because in a sense they have little effect on macroeconomic variables the paper shows the ingredients necessary to construct such an explanation for exchange rate volatility in addition to the presence of local currency pricing we need a incomplete international financial markets b a structure of international pricing and product distribution such that wealth effects of exchange rate changes are minimized and c stochastic deviations from uncovered interest rate parity together it is shown that these elements can produce exchange rate volatility that is much higher than shocks to economic fundamentals and disconnected from the rest of the economy in the sense that the volatility of all other macroeconomic aggregates are of the same order as that of fundamentals

intra household gender disparity in school choice evidence from private schooling in india abstractthis paper explores gender inequality within households in the decision of private versus government school choice in india using a three period longitudinal dataset on rural households from uttar pradesh a northern state of india this paper estimates a household fixed effects model and finds that there is an intra household gender bias of 6 percentage points in private school enrolment among children aged 6 16 years contrary to the trend in overall enrolment the gender gap in private school choice is rising over time and is more pronounced in villages with a larger cost difference between private and government schooling this finding remains robust even after controlling for average school quality and considering potential endogeneity of the cost variables

input choices in agriculture is there a gender bias summary this paper examines evidence of gender biases in the decisions of agricultural households utilizing data from international crops research institute for the semi arid tropics s village level studies in india 1975 85 the main empirical finding is that households with a high proportion of boys tend to use some agricultural inputs including fertilizers and irrigation services more intensively than households with girls this pattern is more pronounced among wealthier households but does not appear to be driven solely by bequest motives or male child labor productivity

estimation of the internal adjustment costs model using longitudinal establishment data this paper develops estimates of the internal costs measured in terms of foregone current output associated with the introduction of new plant and equipment into manufacturing establishments using the census bureau s longitudinal establishment data file a very large and rich source of production and investment data our estimates provide strong support for the internal adjustment costs hypothesis they indicate that one dollar increases in expansion and replacement investment cause on the average 35and 21 cent reductions respectively in current output the internal cost of adjusting to equipment appears to be higher than the cost of adjusting to plant

the effects of sons and daughters on men s labor supply and wages in this paper we estimate the effects of children and the differential effects of sons and daughters on men s labor supply and hourly wage rates the responses to fatherhood of two cohorts of men from the psid sample are examined separately and we use fixed effects estimation to control for unobserved heterogeneity we find that fatherhood significantly increases the hourly wage rates and annual hours of work for men from both cohorts most notably men s labor supply and wage rates increase more in response to the births of sons than to the births of daughters

reconsidering gender bias in intrahousehold allocation in india abstract finding evidence of gender discrimination among children in the intrahousehold allocation of goods has often proven to be difficult this article uses data on education expenditures in india to test whether data aggregation data reliability and the statistical method used help explain this pattern results suggest that discrimination against girls is increasing in age and robust to the statistical method and the expenditure measure at the all india level although state level results are more sensitive i find that data aggregation and statistical method are important factors in detecting gender bias while data reliability does not seem to play a major role

prices credit markets and child growth in low income rural areas in this paper it is argued that fluctuations in child growth in rural areas of bangladesh during and after severe floods in i988 can provide insight into the structure of credit markets a model of intertemporal resource allocation is developed and euler equations relating growth patterns of children to the cost of borrowing by household are then derived from the model the evidence indicates that although some of the variation in growth patterns over the relevant period may be attributed to variation in illness and the price of rice growth patterns for children in landless households were influenced by credit market imperfections this paper links two prominent strands of research in economic development the first strand examines the extent to which households in poor rural economies are able to protect themselves from the adverse weather and other shocks that importantly influence earnings in underdeveloped areas while it has long been thought that credit market imperfections and other forms of market failure make it difficult for poor individuals in these economies to smooth consumption both within and across years there remains some question about the magnitude and pervasiveness of these imperfections while there is evidence that fluctuations in economic conditions result in inefficient allocation of resources e g morduch 1990 rosenzweig and wolpin i993 some recent papers have emphasised the fact that consumption patterns of households in the same village comove in a manner consistent with the idea that a substantial fraction of idiosyncratic variation in income is effectively

sex preferences marital dissolution and the economic status of women author s bedard kelly deschenes olivier abstract the rise in the divorce rate over the past 40 years is one of the fundamental changes in american society a seemingly ever increasing number of women and children spend some fraction of their life in single female headed households leading many to be concerned about the economic circumstances of these women their and children estimating the cause to effect relationship between marital dissolution and female economic status is complicated because the same factors that increase marital instability may also affect the economic status and labor market behavior of women we propose an instrumental variables solution to this problem based on the sex of the firstborn child this strategy exploits the fact that the sex of the firstborn child is random and the fact that marriages are less likely to survive following the birth of girls as opposed to boys our iv estimates cast doubt on the contention that marital instability causes large declines in woman s economic status once the negative selection into divorce is accounted for we find that women who have experienced marital dissolution have considerably higher levels of personal income and annual wages than women who remain married at the same time we find little evidence of differential poverty rates and equivalized household incomes among ever divorced women and never divorced women we further show that the higher wages of ever divorced women mostly reflect increased labor supply intensity hours and weeks of work of woman who experienced marital dissolution

real income equivalence among one earner and two earner families in an earlier paper we proposed a technique for making income comparisons across various household sizes in this paper we employ a modified version of that method to convert nominal income to some real equivalent comparable across families of a given size but with one or two family earners we begin with a discussion of some of the conceptual difficulties involved in making cross family size or structure comparisons in income we then describe spending pattern differences between one and two earner families the final section discusses our effort to convert nominal income into comparable real income units we conclude that nominal income differences between two and one earner families far overstate differences in standards of living excerpt

the determinants of cross border equity flows abstract we explore a new panel data set on bilateral gross cross border equity flows between 14 countries 1989 1996 we show that a gravity model explains international transactions in financial assets at least as well as goods trade transactions gross transaction flows depend on market size in source and destination country as well as trading costs in which both information and the transaction technology play a role distance proxies some information costs and other variables explicitly represent information transmission an information asymmetry between domestic and foreign investors and the efficiency of transactions the geography of information is the main determinant of the pattern of international transactions while there is weak support in our data for the diversification motive once we control for the informational friction we broaden the scope of our results by presenting some evidence linking the results on equity transactions to equity holdings

gender bias credit constraints and time allocation in rural india this paper examines the impact of a child s gender on the time allocation of rural indian households for the five year period subsequent to its birth a theoretical model generates predictions for the effect of the birth of a boy relative to a girl i e the gender shock on household behaviour when the household is liquidity constrained and when it is not the results from the empirical analysis are consistent with the case in which poorer households are liquidity constrained and less poor households are not the interpretation of the finding that women in both groups of households work less subsequent to the birth of a boy relative to a girl differs in these two cases

understanding bilateral exchange rate volatility abstract this paper develops an empirical model of bilateral exchange rate volatility we conjecture that for developing economies external financial liabilities have an important effect on desired bilateral exchange rate volatility above and beyond the standard optimal currency area oca factors by contrast industrial countries do not face the same set of constraints in international financial markets in our theoretical model external debt tightens financial constraints and reduces the efficiency of the exchange rate in responding to external shocks we go on to explore the determinants of bilateral exchange rate volatility in a broad cross section of countries for developing economies bilateral exchange rate volatility relative to creditor countries is strongly negatively affected by the stock of external debt for industrial countries however oca variables appear more important and external debt is generally not significant in explaining bilateral exchange rate volatility

the drivers of financial globalization over the past decade emerging markets have accounted for a growing fraction of world gdp and international trade reflecting fast growth in china and india but also strong economic performance across the board and the spec tacular increase in foreign exchange reserve holdings the growing importance of sovereign wealth funds and the pattern of global imbal ances more generally suggest that these coun tries are also playing a major role in financial globalization

income smoothing and consumption smoothing one way that risk averse households protect consumption levels is to borrow and use insurance mechanisms another way common in low income economies is to diversify economic activities and make conservative production and employment choices households thus tend toward limiting exposure only to shocks that can be handled with available credit and insurance typically both types of mechanisms are studied independently but much more can be learned by studying them together first we obtain a more complete picture of risks costs and insurance possibilities second it opens the way to considering biases in standard tests of credit and insurance

understanding bilateral exchange rate risks abstract we apply the autoregressive conditional jump intensity arji model to weekly bilateral exchange rate returns of 31 countries and examine the determinants of bilateral exchange rate risks over the period 2001 2013 consistent with the balance sheet effects in the open economy literature we find that bilateral exchange rate risks are significantly reduced by external financial liabilities above and beyond the standard optimal currency area oca factors and the development of domestic financial sectors will attenuate this effect subsample analysis reveals that developed countries also face credit constraints in the global capital market and the negative effects of external liabilities on bilateral exchange rate risks are increasingly pronounced in countries facing more credit constraints

parental preference heterogeneity and human capital inequality abstract in this article i provide an empirical account of the human capital investment behavior of parents in the face of endowment differences among siblings the data set used contains a three wave panel of 4 030 individuals the article presents a rare case in which endowments are measured explicitly health endowments are estimated from dynamic health production functions while educational endowments are obtained from test scores the simple score of the standard raven s colored progressive matrix cpm test is used to measure educational endowments i use estimation procedures that combine an instrumental variables method with panel data estimators to control for endogeneity and heterogeneity the results suggest that parents compensate for initial differences in health but reinforce initial educational differences among siblings hence an educational subsidy aimed at reducing inequality may end up reinforcing the inequality that might exist in the absence of such subsidy when parents invest mor

wealth weather risk and the composition and profitability of agricultural investments despite the growing evidence that farmers in low income environments are risk averse there has been little empirical evidence on the importance of risk in shaping the actual allocation of production resources among farmers differentiated by wealth the authors use panel data on investments in rural india to examine how the composition of productive and nonproductive asset holdings varies across farmers with different levels of total wealth and across farmers facing different degrees of weather risk income variability is a prominent feature of the experience of rural agents in low income countries the authors report evidence based on measures of rainfall variability that the agricultural investment portfolio behavior of farmers in such settings reflects risk aversion due evidently to limitations on consumption soothing mechanisms such as crop insurance or credit markets the authors results suggest that uninsured weather risk is a significant cause of lower efficiency and lower average incomes a one standard deviation decrease in weather risk measured by the standard deviation of the timing of the rainy season would raise average profits by up to 35 percent among farmers in the lowest wealth quartile moreover rainfall variability induces a more unequal distribution of average incomes for a given distribution of wealth wealthier farmers are willing to absorb significant risk without giving up profits to reduce production risk smaller farmers have to invest their limited wealth in ways that reduce their exposure to risk at the cost of lower profit rates the authors found that at high levels of rainfall variability differences in rates of profit per unit of agricultural assets were similar across classes of wealth but over the sample range of rainfall variability these rates of profit were always higher for the poorer farmers than for the wealthier ones suggesting that the disadvantages of small farmers in risk diffusion are more than offset by their labor cost advantage

traditional vs modern production systems price and nonmarket considerations of cacao producers in northern ecuador many factors besides profit maximization such as nonmarket ecological and social benefits influence smallholder households to adopt a specific agricultural production system or sell in a particular market thus different analytical techniques are needed that take into consideration more than monetary income to fully capture these additional benefits to better understand the production decisions of smallholder farmers we build on previous work on the household model and shadow wage estimation to develop a shadow wage for ecuadorian cacao producers that includes these nonmarket benefits we found that the shadow wage correctly indicated that on average these households would prefer to use an agroforestry production system instead of the more profitable modern system because of the nonmarket benefits received from the former system

the embodiment hypothesis an interregional test omy 86 aug 1978 673 700 a note on maximum likelihood estimation of the rational expectations model of the term structure journal of monetary economics 5 1979 133 143 sargent thomas j and neil wallace rational expectations the optimal monetary instrument and the optimal money supply rule journal of political economy 83 apr 1975 241 254 zellner arnold an efficient method of estimating seemingly unrelated regressions and tests for aggregation bias journal of the american statistical association 57 1962 348 368

conditional jump dynamics in stock market returns this article develops a new conditional jump model to study jump dynamics in stock market returns we propose a simple filter to infer ex post the distribution of jumps this permits construction of the shock affecting the time t conditional jump intensity and is the main input into an autoregressive conditional jump intensity model the model allows the conditional jump intensity to be time varying and follows an approximate autoregressive moving average arma form the time series characteristics of 72 years of daily stock returns are analyzed using the jump model coupled with a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity garch specification of volatility we find significant time variation in the conditional jump intensity and evidence of time variation in the jump size distribution the conditional jump dynamics contribute to good in sample and out of sample fits to stock market volatility and capture the rally often observed in equity markets following a significant downturn

mixed diffusion jump process modeling of exchange rate movements this study demonstrates that the mixed diffusion jump process is superior to the stable laws or a mixture of normals as a model of exchange rate changes for the british pound french franc and the we st german mark relative to the united states dollar the parameter value s for the mixed diffusion jump process are dependent on the monetary policy regime in force in the united states with the estimates for the franc and mark being intertemporally similar but different from the pound copyright 1988 by mit press

on jump processes in the foreign exchange and stock markets exchange rates exhibit systematic discontinuities even after allowingfor conditional heteroskedasticity in the diffusion process the results are much more significant in theforeign exchange market than in the stock market which suggests differences in the structure of these markets finally this jump component is shown to explain some of the empirically observed mispricings in the currency options market the objective of this article is to analyze and compare the empirical distribution of returns in the stock market and in the foreign exchange market there are a number of reasons why a better understanding of the stochastic processes driving prices in these markets would be useful many financial models rely heavily on the assumption of a particular stochastic process while relatively little attention is paid to the empirical fit of the postulated distribution as a result models like option pricing models are applied indiscriminately to various markets such as the stock market and the foreign exchange market when the underlying processes may be fundamentally different the foreign exchange market for instance is characterized by active exchange rate man

gender and poverty issues and policies with special reference to asian developing countries abstract recent years saw the outpouring of a theoretical and empirical literature exploring the nexus between gender and poverty in developing countries this paper which provides a critical review of the literature examines the conceptual basis for a gender focused approach to poverty alleviation reviews the relevant empirical studies and data drawn principally but not exclusively from asian developing countries and explores the role of public policies to redress gender disparity the present review argues that the conceptual basis for many gender focused policies is far from well established the empirical foundations of many conventional wisdoms as well as of popular policies remain fragile due to the dearth of reliable gender segregated data and rigorous empirical studies the paper underscores the need for more careful empirical analyses as an input to formulating sound public policy with regard to gender and poverty

stock market synchronization and monetary integration abstract this paper focuses on the relationship between stock market comovements and monetary integration a panel specification is used to explain bilateral stock market return correlations between fifteen developed economies over the period 1975 2006 time fixed effects are included to capture global shocks and we also examine the role of bilateral trade linkages and international financial integration monetary integration leads to stronger stock market synchronization both through the elimination of exchange rate volatility and through the common monetary policy and the convergence of inflation expectations trade and financial integration also contribute to higher stock market return comovements

evaluating familial support for the elderly the intrahousehold allocation of medical expenditures in rural pakistan introduction in this article i examine the determinants of medical expenditures on the elderly in rural pakistani households analyzing in particular the dependence of such expenditures on the economic contribution of the elderly to household income the results for older males are contrasted with those for younger males improved life expectancies in the south asian economies as in other developing economies have generated new policy interest in the economic status of the elderly there is however little empirical evidence on this topic while the scant research on the elderly in south asia undoubtedly reflects the fact that they represent one of the smallest demographic groups in these economies it also reflects the widespread belief that they are well provided for by the intergenerational households where the vast majority of them reside with their adult children however this assumption has been questioned by a number of scholars who find that medical expenditures on the elderly are closely correlated with the elderly s individual incomes and wealth household data from pakistan support such claims data on individual medical expenditures and days of illness are available from two household surveys a panel data set collected by the international food policy research institute ifpri and from the pakistan living standards measurement survey lsms both data sets reveal a strong correlation between the number of days of illness reported by adult males and age leading one to expect a similarly strong correlation between medical expenditures and age instead the ifpri data yield a correlation that is less than one would expect given the relationship between illness and age the lsms data set which provides information on many more

analyzing the impacts of foreign exchange and oil price on biofuel commodity futures abstract this paper employs an arji trend model that combines the autoregressive jump intensity arji and component models to analyze the effects of the u s dollar index and oil prices on the dynamic properties of biofuel related commodity futures the results show that the arji trend model not only provides a better fit for the data on the volatility dynamics of corn soybean and wheat futures but also performs better in terms of out of sample forecasting the u s dollar index and oil prices both generate significant impacts on the returns of the futures since the coexistence of permanent component transitory component and time varying jumps are observed in those futures the arji trend model is beneficial for acquiring a better understanding of the differential attributes among corn soybean and wheat futures

smoothing consumption by smoothing income hours of work responses to idiosyncratic agricultural shocks in rural india while research has demonstrated that farm households in developing economies are able to protect consumption from idiosyncratic crop shocks little evidence shows how this is achieved this paper examines the extent to which labor markets allow households to shift labor from farm to off farm employment and the extent to which such a shift explains the observed lack of correlation between consumption and idiosyncratic crop shocks the empirical analysis uses a novel measure of the idiosyncratic crop income shock which utilizes information on start of season cropping choices to more accurately estimate household expectations of weather

gender of children bargaining power and intrahousehold resource allocation in china abstract based on the prevalent son preference in china this paper proposes a new measure of relative bargaining power within the household using data from china health and nutrition survey we show that a woman with a first born son has a 3 9 percentage points greater role in household decision making than a woman with a first born daughter having a first born son improves the mother s nutrition intakes and reduces her likelihood of being underweight while thinking of these impacts as being channeled through intrahousehold bargaining power we cannot fully rule out other possible direct effects of a first born son on the outcomes

real exchange rate uncertainty private investment in ldcs this paper examines empirically the link between real exchange rate uncertainty and private investment in developing countries using a large cross country time series data set the paper builds a garch based measure of real exchange rate volatility and finds that it has a strong negative effect on investment after controlling for other standard investment determinants and taking into account their potential endogeneity the effect of uncertainty is not uniform however there is some evidence of threshold effects so that uncertainty only matters when it exceeds some critical level in addition the negative effect of real exchange rate uncertainty on investment is significantly larger in economies that are highly open and in those with less developed financial systems

what causes exchange rate volatility evidence from selected emu members and candidates for emu membership countries abstract we allow for monetary real and financial variables to assess the relevant importance of each of the variables to exchange rate volatility in the case of selected emu members and candidate countries ex ante analysis shows that volatility in the polish zloty euro and the hungarian forint euro forex markets can be influenced by the monetary side of the economy on the other hand ex post analysis shows that forex markets in france italy and spain had been influenced during the pre emu era by monetary and real shocks however the irish pound exchange rate per ecu had been affected by only real shocks

risk financial markets and human capital in a developing country this paper explores the link between financial market incompleteness and human capital accumulation we examine how child school attendance responds to seasonal fluctuations in the income of agrarian households using panel data from rural india to pinpoint market imperfections we study responses to aggregate and idiosyncratic as well as to anticipated and unanticipated income shocks our main finding is that seasonal fluctuations in school attendance are a form of self insurance but one which does not result in a substantial loss of human capital on average

opportunity inequality and the intergenerational transmission of child labour this paper presents a model in which opportunity differences within society result in child labour where opportunity is broadly defined but can include school quality access to higher paying jobs access to information about the returns to education and actual discrimination if opportunity differences exist child labour and poverty are shown to be symptomatic of this underlying socioeconomic condition it is then shown that policies that ban child labour and or introduce compulsory education laws can actually reduce dynastic welfare increase poverty and further exacerbate income inequality within society because they treat the symptom rather than the disease the lack of opportunity

the empirical content of nash bargained household behavior in households whose allocation decisions can be represented as nash bargained household decisions extrahousehold environmental parameters eeps serve as pure shifters of the threat points the comparative statics of changes in demands due to changes in these eeps are given these are incorporated into a comprehensive statement of the empirical content of nash bargained household behavior including a nash generalization of barten s 1966 fundamental matrix equation of the theory of consumer demand estimation and data requirements are discussed along with nested testing of the following structure the neoclassical model is nested in the nash bargained model which in turn is nested in an unrestricted model of household demands emphasized throughout is the enriched menu of explanatory variables for demand analysis provided by the nash model as well as the model s ability to jointly analyze i household formation and ii intrahousehold allocation decisions

dollar jump fears 1984 1992 distributional abnormalities implicit in currency futures options abstract deutsche mark and yen futures options over 1984 1992 and 1986 1992 respectively are examined for deviations from the lognormal assumption underlying standard option pricing models two methods are used an atheoretic skewness premium and daily estimates of moments using a model for pricing american foreign currency futures options under systematic exchange rate jump risk substantial variation over time is found in all moments including implicit skewness and kurtosis the implicit abnormalities predict future abnormalities in log differenced dm futures prices but not yen the peso problem implications do not explain standard rejections of uncovered interest parity

market opportunities genetic endowments and intrafamily resource distribution child survival in rural india the authors examine how intrafamily resource allocations respond to changes in economic conditions and to genetic differences in children by estimating the determinants of variations in the sex specific survival differentials of rural indian children based on standard census and household survey data they explore in particular the hypothesis that such differences are related to the relative returns to survival with households selectively allocating resources to children in response to variation in sex differences in their expected earnings opportunities as adults data are from the 1961 census and a 1971 household survey excerpt

policy volatility institutions and economic growth abstract in this paper we present evidence that policy volatility exerts a strong and direct negative impact on growth using data for 93 countries we construct measures of policy volatility based on the standard deviation of the residuals from country specific regressions of government consumption on output undisciplined governments that implement frequent and large changes in government spending unrelated to the state of the business cycle generate lower economic growth we employ both instrumental variables and panel estimation to address concerns of omitted variables and endogeneity a 1 standard deviation increase in policy volatility reduces long term economic growth by about 0 74 in the panel regressions and by more than 1 percentage point in the cross section

embodied technological change and tests of the internal adjustment cost hypothesis several recent studies analyzing labor productivity changes have focused on the existence and measurement of the internal costs of adjustment attendant on investment in new capital goods these internal adjustment costs are those borne directly by firms purchasing new capital goods and include such costs as those associated with setting up the new capital learning the operation of the new equipment and assimilating the new factors into the production process such costs need not be explicit as in the cost of training programs but can take the form of a reduction in ordinary output such as resources diverted from the production of regular output to accommodate the adjustment costs of new investment internal adjustment costs should be distinguished from the well known external costs of adjustment such as the increasing marginal resource costs of delivering the desired level of capital goods to industries failure to consider these costs can have far reaching effects in several areas one such area is the analysis of the impact of new investment on output and productivity if these internal adjustment costs are significant and important the

do parents favor boys in an optimizing model of parental allocation systematic differences in human capital investments betwen the sexes may originate in at least 3 ways 1 parents may respond to expected gender wage differentials 2 parents may respond to systematic differences by gender in the price of human capital investments 3 parental preferences may favor girls or boys in the sense that they value identical outcomes at the same cost more highly for one sex than for the other this paper analyzes the role of parental preferences in general and unequal concern in particular in the allocation of human capital investments among children the authors generalize their earlier model of the human capital investments among children to incorporate the possibility that the returns to such investments may include not only the childs own ecpected earnings but also the expected earnings of his or her spouse thus the model assumes that parents may value returns that accrue trough the marriage market as well as through education the relevant returns to education may include marrying a spouse with higher expected earnings the empirical analysis indicates that gender wage differentials like endowment differentials are mildly reinforced by the parental allocation of human capital investments marriage market outcomes are significant determinants of the allocation of human capital investments among children there is no evidence that parental preferences favor boys this study shows that parental preferences either exhibit equal concern or slightly favor gils

towards a theory of famine relief policy abstract this paper examines how famine mortality is related to the distribution of food consumption a theoretical model is proposed of how individual survival chances are affected by changes in consumption uncertainty in survival prospects arises from the errors made by any observer in assessing health at given current consumption the theory is used to explore two policy issues in famine relief the choice of budgetary rules for allocating emergency aid and the case for price stabilization policies during famines applications to data for two famines in south asia suggest that successful price stabilization would have had substantial benefits in reducing mortality