sources of intra industry wage dispersion how much do employers matter observed human capital explains less than half of wage variation in bls industry wage surveys establishment based wage differentials controlling for occupation account for 20 70 percent of intra industry wage variation this corresponds to a standard deviation in wages of 14 percent of the mean almost as large as interindustry wage variation investigation suggests that establishment wage differentials are not random variations or returns to usual measures of human capital

does family income matter for schooling outcomes using adoptees as a natural experiment one would expect that family income is an important positive factor in children s school attainment however evidence is often tainted by the lack of control for parental ability since at least a portion of ability is transferred genetically to children this paper uses a sample of adopted children and offers genetically unbiased estimates we further correct for biases arising from unobserved parenting qualities and from parents differentiation between their own birth and adopted children family income still has a significant effect it implies that high ability children in low income families face binding credit constraints that society may wish to relieve

effects of family background on earnings and returns to schooling evidence from brazil we investigate whether omitted family background variables are responsible for high returns to schooling estimated in brazil returns to schooling fall by about one third when parental schooling is added to wage equations surprisingly the schooling of fathers in law has larger effects on wages than the schooling of fathers on the basis of a model of assortative mating we interpret this as evidence that parental characteristics represent unobservable worker attributes rather than nepotism in the labor market we conclude that the family background bias in returns to schooling is modest and need not imply returns to family connections

beauty and the labor market the authors examine the impact of looks on earnings using interviewers ratings of respondents physical appearance plain people earn less than average looking people who earn less than the good looking the plainness penalty is 5 to 10 percent slightly larger than the beauty premium effects for men are at least as great as for women unattractive women have lower labor force participation rates and marry men with less human capital better looking people sort into occupations where beauty may be more productive but the impact of individuals looks is mostly independent of occupation suggesting the existence of pure employer discrimination copyright 1994 by american economic association

how late to pay understanding wage arrears in russia we organize an empirical analysis of russian wage arrears around hypotheses concerning incentives for firms to pay late and for workers to tolerate late payment nationally representative household panel data matched with employer data show that arrears are positively related to firm age size state ownership and declining performance constrained multinomial logit estimates reveal intrafirm variation related to job tenure and small shareholdings in the firm wage arrears unlike wage cuts have a theoretically ambiguous effect on workers quit behavior and we show empirically that the effect varies negatively with the extent of the practice in the local labor market

economic transformation and income inequality in urban china evidence from panel data using panel data of 4 730 urban residents drawn from 20 cities in china this article examines changes in income determinants between the prereform and reform eras to guide this empirical study a conceptual model is developed that emphasizes the coevolution of politics and markets to synthesize theoretical ideas in the recent debate on the transformation of state socialist societies the findings show significant changes in returns to education and in the rise of private hybrid firms in the reform era there is also strong evidence of institutional persistence in returns to positional power and in the organizational hierarchy these findings reveal multifaceted processes of transformation that call for more sophisticated theoretical models and in depth institutional analyses

on risk aversion and bargaining outcomes abstract we revisit the well known result that asserts that an increase in the degree of one s risk aversion improves the position of one s opponents to this end we apply yaari s dual theory of choice under risk both to nash s bargaining problem and to rubinstein s game of alternating offers under this theory unlike under expected utility risk aversion influences the bargaining outcome only when this outcome is random namely when the players are risk lovers in this case an increase in one s degree of risk aversion increases one s share of the pie

raiders or saviors the evidence on six controversial investors abstract carl icahn irwin jacobs carl lindner david murdock victor posner and the late charles bluhdorn are usually portrayed as corporate raiders the evidence here however shows that between 1977 and 1982 when it was first announced that they had purchased stock in a given firm stock prices on average increased significantly the investors activities in target firms for the two years following the initial stock purchase are likewise inconsistent with raiding we discuss two hypotheses that are consistent with the evidence first these investors improve the management of target firms second they are systematically able to identify under priced stocks

primary schooling cognitive skills and wages in south africa using a fairly rich data set from south africa the paper finds that despite the sobriquet gutter education the african schooling systems help to create cognitive skills and these skills are a determinant of wage levels various robust estimators are used but the influential outlier problem does not turn out to be serious computational skills appear to be more important than comprehension skills in influencing wages the african primary schooling system was an extremely poor generator of computational skill the seven year course raising the computational test score by 13 if that a policy implication is that productivity could be raised by certain near costless reallocations of resources in favour of mathematical learning

demand for education and labor market outcomes lessons from the abolition of compulsory conscription in france before 1997 education was a way for young french men to avoid military service in the army after the abolition of compulsory conscription in 1997 this incentive to stay on in education disappeared we show that the decrease in the benefit of pursuing education for men was followed by a fall in their educational achievement relative to women and by a decrease in their relative entry wages these results suggest that high school dropout rates could be reduced by policies increasing the immediate benefits of pursuing education and that it would yield a substantial improvement in early labor market outcomes

does increasing women s schooling raise the schooling of the next generation the positive cross sectional relationship between the schooling of mothers and their children is substantially biased upward due to correlations between schooling and heritable ability as well as assortative mating an increase in the schooling of women would not have beneficial effects in terms of the schooling of children increased maternal schooling leads to reduced home time for mothers anticipating the consequences of investing in women s schooling requires attention to the role that schooling plays in the marriage market as well as to opportunities in the labor market for women

reputation and imperfect information abstract a common observation in the informal literature of economics and elsewhere is that is multistage games players may seek early in the game to acquire a reputation for being tough or benevolent or something else but this phenomenon is not observed in some formal game theoretic analyses of finite games such as selten s finitely repeated chain store game or in the finitely repeated prisoners dilemma we reexamine selten s model adding to it a small amount of imperfect or incomplete information about players payoffs and we find that this addition is sufficient to give rise to the reputation effect that one intuitively expects

accounting for urban china s rising income inequality the roles of labor market human capital and marriage market factors this paper analyzes china s rising family income inequality since the early 1990s when the urban labor market started its transformation from a centrally controlled to a market driven one we document the trends in income inequality over the period of 1992 2009 using the urban household survey data and adopt the approach recently proposed by eika et al 2014 to decompose changes in income inequality we find that labor market factors accounted for about three quarters of the overall increases in income inequality while falling marriage rate contributed the other quarter changes in human capital levels and marital assortativeness have not contributed to the rising inequality jel d31 i26 j12

a theory of acquisition markets mergers versus tender offers and golden parachutes we develop a model of the acquisition market in which the acquirer has a choice between two takeover mechanisms mergers and tender offers a merger is modeled as a bargaining game between the acquiring and target firms whereas a tender offer is modeled as an auction in which bidders arrive sequentially and compete for the target at any stage of the bargaining game the acquiring firm can stop negotiating and make a tender offer in equilibrium there is a unique level of synergy gains below which the acquiring firm makes only a merger attempt as it expects to lose in the competition resulting from a tender offer for synergy gains above this level tender offers can occur however to get tender offers target shareholders must give their managers golden parachutes that give higher payoffs in tender offers than in mergers article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

markets and inequality in transitional economies toward testable theories nee s 1989 and in this issue market transition theory contested by xie and hannum in this issue claims that market mechanisms have predictable implications for inequality compared to nonmarket allocation market exchange enhances the bargaining power of producers nee p 910 the core argument is that cadre advantages shall decline to the extent that markets replace redistribution as the dominant mode of economic allocation while in successive publications nee has altered his judgment about how far the market transition has proceeded in rural china and whether his theory does predict a decline of cadre privilege he has not altered the core claim about market allocation market economies vary widely in their patterns of power and privilege in ways unrelated to the extent to which a market economy has been established the variability of market economies warns against attempts to predict changes in inequality without first specifying the kinds of enterprises and other institutions that characterize the emerging market economy or even the characteristics of markets themselves we have been tempted into these predictions by the memorable polanyian contrast between two ideal typical economies redistributive and market that has proven a rich source of hypotheses about stratification szelenyi 1978 1983 and the theory of the firm kornai 1992 under state socialism this contrast has crystallized a research agenda by posing an important historical question about the social impact of the rise of market allocation in planned economies especially as it concerns the fate of communist officials but many now find that these ideal types and the continuum that bridges them are a poor guide to the analysis of emerging market economies see bian and logan 1996 lin 1995 rona tas 1994 1995 walder 1992 1995 and stark and xie and hannum in this issue general claims about the impact of markets should be viewed skeptically for the impact of markets works through the allocation of assets the characteristics of emerging markets and the political processes by which market economies are established markets per se are not the issue

returns to education a further international update and implications this paper updates evidence on the returns to investment in education by adding estimates for new countries and refining existing estimates to bring the total number of country cases to over 60 the new cross country evidence confirms and reinforces earlier patterns namely that returns are highest for primary education the general curricula the education of women and countries with the lowest per capita income the findings have important implications for directing future investment in education which for efficiency and equity purposes should concentrate on these priority areas

estimating returns to education using twins in urban china abstract this paper empirically estimates the return to education using twins data that the authors collected from urban china our ordinary least squares estimate shows that one year of schooling increases an individual s earnings by 8 4 if we use a within twin fixed effects model the return is reduced to 2 7 but rises to 3 8 after the correction of measurement error these results suggest that a large portion of the estimated returns to education is due to omitted ability or the family effect we further investigate why the true return is low and the omitted ability bias high and find evidence showing that it may be a consequence of china s education system which is highly selective and exam oriented more specifically we find that high school education may mainly serve as a mechanism to select college students but as a human capital investment per se it has low returns in terms of earnings in contrast both vocational school education and college education have a large return that is comparable to that found in the united states

using nash bargaining to design project management contracts under cost uncertainty abstract in the design of procurement contracts cost sharing wherein the contractor receives a fixed fee plus a fraction of his cost is common when the cost for completing the project is uncertain we determine the best cost sharing contract between a risk neutral project manager and a risk averse contractor when negotiation proceeds in accord with nash bargaining we examine the characteristics of the contract when the contractor can invest to reduce the mean and or the uncertainty of the project cost we show that cost plus contracts dominate fixed price contracts as well as all other cost sharing contracts in order to extend our analysis to the case when the value of the project itself is uncertain we employ the recent method of embedded nash bargaining finally we generalize our main result by allowing an asymmetric nash bargaining solution

returns to education in china a meta analysis within labour economics returns to education is an area of focused research moreover amongst studies looking at emerging economies china is the most widely studied economy while there is a gen

nash bargaining and risk aversion it is widely accepted among axiomatic bargaining theorists that if one bargainer is more risk averse than a second the second will be a tougher bargaining opponent than the first against all opponents we argue that this relationship between risk aversion and bargaining toughness is both highly fragile and more nuanced than previously articulated in the nash and kalai smorodinsky bargaining frameworks we establish that when a bargainer is compared with a second who is almost globally more risk averse than the first the supposedly immutable relationship between bargaining effectiveness and risk aversion evaporates specifically we identify an upper hemicontinuity failure of a correspondence which maps the power set of all lotteries to those utility pairs that satisfy our almost global comparative risk aversion relation on these subsets we trace the consensus view that tougher bargainers are less risk averse to an exclusive focus on precisely the point at which this correspondence implodes

competition and the medium of exchange in takeovers the role of the medium of exchange in competition among bidders and its effect on returns to stockholders in corporate takeovers are investigated consistent with recent empirical evidence our model shows that stockholders of both acquiring and target firms obtain higher returns when a takeover is financed with cash rather than equity and that returns to target shareholders increase with competition the model predicts that the fraction of synergy captured by the target decreases with the level of synergy finally it is shown that as competition increases the cash component of the offer as well as the proportion of cash offered increases article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

the cultural revolution and returns to schooling in china estimates based on twins abstract this paper investigates the returns to schooling in china for the cultural revolution cr cohort and the non cr cohort using a new set of chinese twins data applying the fixed effects model on twins data which helps to control for the genetic and family background effects this paper examines whether the cr cohort has smaller economic returns to schooling than the non cr cohort the empirical results in this paper indicate that the cultural revolution has not played a significantly adverse role in the returns to schooling

estimating the economic return to educational levels using data on twins this paper relaxes some restrictions of previous twin based estimates of the effects of education on earnings first it estimates the earnings premiums associated with different educational levels second it estimates a piecewise linear relationship between the natural logarithm of annual earnings and years of schooling third the measurement error corrections are based on a less restrictive non classical measurement error model the estimation strategy implies that ability bias can be investigated separately in different parts of the educational distribution the linear relationship between the logarithm of annual earnings and years of schooling is rejected furthermore the results in the sample of identical mz twins indicated both that the ability bias could be of different signs and of different magnitudes in different parts of the educational distribution the twin based estimates in the sample of fraternal dz twins did not display any marked differences as compared to the cross sectional estimates finally the results indicated that the error corrected twin based estimates of the average return to years of schooling that rely on a classical measurement error model are upwards biased by approximately 30 copyright 2004 john wiley sons ltd

astronomics in action the graduate earnings premium and the dragon effect in singapore white u s and latin american currencies portray images of national independence heroes singapore s 2 dollar bill the most widely circulated since there is no smaller denomination shows students in a classroom listening to a professor with a university in the background underneath there is just one word education singapore s obsession with education miami herald 8 september 2009 i introduction since the groundbreaking work of mincer 1974 many academics have looked closely at the question of what the return to education might be 1 however because of the lack of data the literature does not have much to say about singapore even though a lot of research has been done for advanced countries throughout the world 2 3 in this paper we employ a recent survey from the singapore national youth council to study one aspect of this topic the return to university education in singapore having a university education is usually perceived to be good for one s career although the extent to which this is true has been a constant point of contention 4 this debate had relied largely on anecdotes instead of econometric research understandably so because data is not easily available therefore this paper hopes to offer some evidence on the causal link between university education and earnings outcome in singapore however identification is a formidable challenge as in any research that aims to estimate the return to education although the positive association between education and earnings is a virtually ubiquitous fact prima facie evidence of income gaps may misrepresent what the true return to education is because individuals tend to make educational choices according to their abilities such income gaps would contain not only the return that is due to education the quantity of interest but also the return on unobserved abilities which is the confounding effect over the years economists have sought to disentangle the causal effect of education from the confounding effect of unobserved abilities in the data but the existing estimation approaches are not easily adaptable here for example methods that employ within twin comparisons or changes in compulsory schooling laws cannot be implemented owing to data limitations and the lack of important schooling reforms in singapore 5 in fact the dataset used here was compiled for a different purpose than economics which is to provide a better understanding of singapore s youths from a sociological perspective given these issues a new estimation approach has to be considered in this paper we propose to exploit a consequence li liu and zhang 2012 of chinese traditions generating the so called dragon effect to study the causal link between university education and income in singapore chinese is the largest ethnic group and malays indians and eurasians are the main ethnic minorities according to chinese traditions there are 12 creatures in the chinese zodiac where each represents a lunar year in a 12 year cycle among them the dragon is the most auspicious creature and babies born in a dragon year are believed to be superior 6 because of this conviction the dragon year has seen upswings in the rate of birth not just in singapore but also in places where chinese culture is prevalent 7 for example figure 1 plots the birth rate from 1970 in singapore based on resident women aged between 15 and 49 8 while the fertility rate was plunging early on it did increase momentarily during the dragon year of 1976 there was another sharp increase in 1988 9 and then in 2000 which marks the highly auspicious year of the golden dragon figure 1 omitted the positive relationship between the birth rate and the dragon year provides the rationale behind the identification strategy used here as the dragon cohort is larger than usual competition for entry into university would be more intense leading to what is known as the dragon effect

different time preferences and non stationary contracts in negotiations abstract when time preferences differ non stationary contracts strictly dominate stationary contracts the unique equilibrium converges to the nash bargaining solution in which the less patient player always receives 50 of his utopia payoff regardless of the difference between the players discount rates

estimates of the economic returns to schooling from a new sample of twins this paper uses a new survey to contrast the wages of genetically identical twins with different schooling levels multiple measurements of schooling levels were also collected to assess the effect of reporting error on the estimated economic returns to schooling the data indicate that omitted ability variables do not bias the estimated return to schooling upward but that measurement error does bias it downward adjustment for measurement error indicates that an additional year of schooling increases wages by 12 to 16 percent a higher estimate of the economic returns to schooling than has been previously found copyright 1994 by american economic association

does compulsory school attendance affect schooling and earnings we establish that season of birth is related to educational attainment because of school start age policy and compulsory school attendance laws individuals born in the beginning of the year start school at an older age and can therefore drop out after completing less schooling than individuals born near the end of the year roughly 25 percent of potential dropouts remain in school because of compulsory schooling laws we estimate the impact of compulsory schooling on earnings by using quarter of birth as an instrument for education the instrumental variables estimate of the return to education is close to the ordinary least squares estimate suggesting that there is little bias in conventional estimates every developed country in the world has a compulsory schooling requirement yet little is known about the effect these laws have on educational attainment and earnings 1 this paper exploits an unusual natural experiment to estimate the impact of compulsory schooling laws in the united states the experiment stems from the fact that children born in different months of the year start school at different ages while compulsory schooling laws generally require students to remain in school until their sixteenth or seventeenth birthday in effect the interaction of school entry requirements and compulsory schooling laws compel students born

income schooling and ability evidence from a new sample of identical twins we develop a model of optimal schooling investments and estimate it using new data on approximately 700 identical twins we estimate an average return to schooling of 9 percent for identical twins but estimated returns appear to be slightly higher for less able individuals simple cross section estimates are marginally upward biased these empirical results imply that abler individuals attain more schooling because they face lower marginal costs of schooling not because of higher marginal benefits

rates of return to four year university education an application of regression discontinuity design estimating the rate of return to university education is invariably difficult due to the problem of omitted variable bias using a regression discontinuity design we estimate the effect of four year university education on earnings and explore the pathways through which the effect operates our estimation exploits the centralized score based college university admission system in china where the minimum scores required for university admission are externally determined by the provincial governments our findings suggest that being eligible for four year university admission implies a sizable increase in earnings with the payoff being attributable to prolonged length of education and improvements in education quality although the quality effects may not be precisely estimated this article is protected by copyright all rights reserved

does school quality matter returns to education and the characteristics of public schools in the united states this paper estimates the effects of school quality measured by the pupil teacher ratio average term length and relative teacher pay on the rate of return to education for men born between 1920 and 1949 using earnings data from the 1980 census we find that men who were educated in states with higher quality schools have a higher return to additional years of schooling rates of return are also higher for individuals from states with better educated teachers and with a higher fraction of female teachers holding constant school quality measures however we find no evidence that parental income or education affects average state level rates of return

the growth effects of education in australia in this article we estimate the growth effect of human capital with country specific time series data for australia in doing so we extended the solow 1956 growth model by using educational attainment as a measure of human capital developed by barro and lee 2010 the extended solow 1956 model performs well after allowing for the presence of structural changes our results based on alternative time series methods show that educational attainment has a small and significant permanent effect on the growth rate of per worker output in australia

on the structure of take over models and insider outsider conflicts in negotiated take overs abstract we model a takeover game where the players can bid or bargain without the traditional exogenous constraints on the order length and number of alternating stages in our european setting dominant shareholders can appoint and dismiss management implying that we have an insider outsider conflict rather than a management shareholder agency problem and that the distribution of sizeable private benefits is a crucial issue the bargaining solution determines the price even if no explicit negotiations are observed while bargaining strength and scope for exclusion determine the type of takeover pre negotiated or not discriminatory or not

predation reputation and entry deterrence abstract economists often argue that predatory practices are irrational since there exist cheaper or more certain means to gain or maintain a monopoly our gametheoretic equilibrium analysis suggests that if a firm is threatened by several potential entrants then predation may be rational against early entrants even if it is costly when viewed in isolation because it yields a reputation which deters other entrants asymmetric information plays a crucial role in our analysis since it provides the rationale for entrants to base their expectations of the firm s future behavior on its past actions the analysis also suggests methods to treat general reputational phenomena

the taste for leisure career choice and the returns to education abstract we develop a simple methodology to estimate the returns to education despite heterogeneous labor leisure preferences the labor supply behavior of doctors and physician assistants is consistent with people choosing between the two careers based on differing tastes for leisure

analysing wage differentials when workers maximize the return to human capital investment abstractthe analysis of the determinants of differences in wages across workers has traditionally relied on the estimation of average earnings functions in this article we propose a new theoretical model where it is the workers who decide the amount they wish to invest in human capital taking into account the costs of acquiring those skills for the purpose of maximizing earnings in this model both human capital and marginal productivity are likely to be influenced by the individual s unobserved characteristics such as ability or motivation potentially giving rise to endogeneity problems in this context the empirical implementation of our theoretical model allows us under certain assumptions to obtain consistent estimates even under the assumption of endogeneity we present an empirical application to the education sector using data from the spanish structure of earnings survey 2010 our results show that females and workers in the private education sector face more difficulties in achieving t

do dragons have better fate i introduction traditionally the chinese believe that the timing of one s birth according to the signs of the chinese zodiac determines the fate of that individual based on this belief some parents plan the births of their children according to the chinese zodiac to give the child an extra endowment of capital indeed some previous studies have confirmed that the chinese tend to plan the birth of their child according to the lunar calendar 1 goodkind 1991 1996 studied the timing of birth for several asian economies including china and hong kong he found that the chinese tended to plan more for the birth of their offsprings in dragon years a similar story was found in hong kong the plot of birth rates in hong kong for the past 20 years shows that birth rates were higher in dragon years viz 1988 and 2000 figure 1 see yip et al 2002 for a statistical discussion of this phenomenon figure 1 omitted several recent news reports also suggested the investment motive in the choice of birth timing the far eastern economic review 24 june 1999 reported that 2000 a dragon year would be a banner year for births in china it pointed out that many chinese would consider the combination of a dragon year and the millennium a double whammy of good fortune consequently many couples plan to give their cherished only child a head start in life by getting pregnant in 1999 so their babies would be born in 2000 a dragon year this report pointed out that there was indeed an increase in the number of pregnancies in beijing hospitals during 1999 with due dates in 2000 other reports suggested that dragons i e individuals born in dragon years might have better fortune forbes magazine 1 november 2002 www forbes com reported the percentage of the 400 richest american businessmen who were born under each sign of the chinese zodiac it showed that 43 of these 400 richest businessmen nearly 11 were born in dragon years making the dragon the most populous sign in this group of 400 successful individuals among these peers when compared to the 11 other zodiac signs 2 such reports supporting the belief that dragons have a better fortune suggest that they are either luckier or more capable of using their inborn human capital more productively than individuals born in other years there are many reasons why dragons may have better earnings even if the superstition is incorrect first superstition about birth timing may simply be self fulfilling if for example employers believe that workers born in a dragon year tend to be more productive they may be willing to pay a higher salary to hire dragons workers receiving a higher salary may work harder based on an argument similar to the efficiency wage hypothesis carmichael 1989 alternatively dragons may have more pride because of this superstitious belief try to be more successful and thus earn more during their careers second higher earnings may result because parents who for example carefully planned their child s birth in a dragon year are also more likely to invest more in their child s future through better education although higher expectations from parents of children born in dragon years may drive the children to spend more years studying some investments by dragons and their parents may not be as readily available as schooling on the contrary it is not difficult to see the opposite side of the coin that is dragons may end up with lower earnings if many parents believe in the superstition the reason is that if there is a larger number of individuals born in a dragon year this may result in keener competition among them for limited resources such as schooling and during their working years job opportunities see welch 1979 for an illustration of how cohort size might affect earnings in the literature only a handful of studies have investigated various cultural superstitions from an economic perspective

minimum wages and teenagers enrollment employment outcomes a multinominal logit model this paper tests the hypothesis that the effect of minimum wage legislation on teenagers education decisions is asymmetrical across family income classes with the legislation inducing children from low income families to reduce their levels of schooling and children from higher income families to increase their educational attainment we use data from the national longitudinal surveys nls and exploit the fact that although the minimum wage is fixed at a point in time its value relative to adult wages varies across areas multinomial logit models of teenagers enrollment employment outcomes are estimated the hypothesis appears to be confirmed for white teens however the evidence for nonwhites is more ambiguous

returns to education evidence from u k twins we use a new sample of uk female identical twins to estimate private economic returns to education we report findings in three areas first we use identical twins to control for family effects and genetic ability bias and the education reported by the other twin to control for schooling measurement error our estimates suggest a return to schooling for uk females of about 7 7 second we investigate within twin pair ability differences by examining within twin pair and between family correlations of education with observable correlates of ability including birthweight ability tests and reading scores our findings suggest lower ability bias in within twin pair regressions than pooled regressions third using data on twins smoking we show smoking reflects family background and using it as an instrument exacerbates ability bias this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

prudence in bargaining the effect of uncertainty on bargaining outcomes abstract we investigate the outcome of bargaining when a player s pay off from agreement is risky we find that a risk averse player typically increases his equilibrium receipts when his pay off is made risky this is because the presence of risk makes individuals behave more patiently in bargaining strong analogies are drawn to the precautionary saving literature we show that the effect of risk on receipts can be sufficiently strong that a decreasingly risk averse player may be better off receiving a risky pay off than a certain pay off

the effect of decision weights in bargaining problems abstract bargaining problems are considered where the preferences of the bargainers deviate from expected utility but can be modelled according to rank dependent utility theory under rank dependent utility both the utility function and the probability weighting function influence the risk attitude of a decision maker the same definition of risk aversion leads to two forms of risk aversion utility risk aversion and probabilistic risk aversion the main finding is that these two forms can have surprisingly opposite consequences for bargaining solutions that exhibit a weak monotonicity property in particular in a large class of bargaining problems both increased utility risk aversion and decreased probabilistic risk aversion of the opponent are advantagous for a player this is demonstrated for the kalai smorodinsky bargaining solution the nash bargaining solution does not behave regularly in this respect

using unemployment rates as instruments to estimate returns to schooling i use state unemployment rates during a person s teenage years to estimate the returns to schooling a higher unemployment rate reduces the opportunity costs of attending school using the same 1980 census data set that angrist and krueger 1991 use i also estimate returns to schooling with a modified version of their quarter of birth instrument the estimates from the two stage least squares 2sls model using the unemployment rate and the model using the quarter of birth instruments are almost identical in addition these 2sls estimates are larger than the ordinary least squares ols estimates supporting this counterintuitive yet prevalent result in the literature

africa s education enigma the nigerian story abstract in the last two decades the social and economic benefits of formal education in sub saharan africa have been debated anecdotal evidence points to low returns to education in africa unfortunately there is limited econometric evidence to support these claims at the micro level in this study i focus on nigeria a country that holds 1 5 of africa s population i use instruments based on the exogenous timing of the implementation and withdrawal of free primary education across regions in this country to consistently estimate the returns to education in the late 1990s the results show the average returns to education are particularly low in the 90s in contrast to conventional wisdom for developing countries 2 8 for every extra year of schooling between 1997 and 1999 surprisingly i find no significant differences between ols and iv estimates of returns to education when necessary controls are included in the wage equation the low returns to education results shed new light on both the changes in demand for education in nigeria and the increased emigration rates from african countries that characterized the 90s

success and failure of reform insights from the transition of agriculture this paper analyzes the linkages between the reform strategies in transition countries and economic performance the authors focus on agriculture because of the sharpness of the policy changes fundamental differences among countries and relative simplicity of agricultural relationships the authors document post reform performance in the transition countries of asia and europe the authors show how a pricing reform and subsidy reductions b land rights reform and policies that affect farm restructuring and c the presence institutions that facilitate exchange either markets or market substitutes affect output and productivity the paper ends with general lessons on reforms and transition

college choice and wages estimates using data on female twins the authors assess the impact of college quality on women s earnings and the influence of family and individual endowments on college choice using new data from a survey of identical and nonidentical twins born in minnesota the estimates reject models that ignore school choice the statistically preferred estimates suggest that ph d granting private universities with well paid senior faculty and smaller enrollments produce students who have significantly higher earnings later in life both the quantity of schooling and the quality of schooling resources are allocated to higher endowed individuals which exacerbates preexisting inequality in human capital and biases conventional estimates of school quality effects copyright 1996 by mit press

what do twins studies reveal about the economic returns to education a comparison of australian and us findings conventional estimates of rates of return to education are constrained because they are unable to isolate the returns to schooling from the contribution of individual ability and the influence of family background potentially studies using a sample of twins may overcome these problems monozygotic twins are genetically identical and if they have been reared together share the same family background differences in income between identical twins can therefore be associated with differences in the amount of education they have undertaken in order to estimate the independent influence of education comparisons of such estimates with estimates made from a sample of dizygotic twins who are genetically similar but not identical and who are also reared together may permit evaluation of the biases associated with ability and family background in conventional estimates of the return to education in an important paper jere behrman et al 1977 analyzed data from a sample of male world war ii veteran twins and found that of the overall rate of return to schooling of 8 percent 2 7 percentage points could be attributed to schooling per se 3 2 percentage points could be attributed to genetic factors and 2 1 percentage points could be attributed to shared family environment in a recent paper however orley ashenfelter and alan krueger 1994 have estimated the economic returns to education using data on a new sample of twins which permitted them to adjust their estimate for omitted ability variables and measurement error on this basis they find that family and genetic effects make virtually no contribution to the returns to schooling measurement error however biases the estimated return to schooling downward the findings of ashenfelter and krueger 1994 are very different from previous work in this field and there is now some confusion as to what analysis of twins data really reveals about the economic returns to schooling ashenfelter and krueger s results are based on analysis of data for a sample of 298 individuals 149 pairs of identical twins who attended a twins festival in 1991 they remark at the end of their paper only additional data collection is likely to lead to better estimates of the returns to schooling p 1171

zero returns to compulsory schooling in germany evidence and interpretation abstract we estimate the impact of compulsory schooling on earnings using changes in compulsory schooling laws in west germany after world war ii most estimates in the literature indicate returns in the range of 10 to 15 while our research design is very similar to studies for various other countries we find a zero return we find no evidence that this is due to labor market institutions or the apprenticeship training system in germany the result might be due to the fact that the basic skills most relevant for the labor market are learned earlier in germany than in other countries

the essential economics of threshold based incentives theory estimation and evidence from the western states 100 abstract many public and private entities utilize incentive systems in which improvements in measured performance are rewarded only when the agent crosses some pre specified threshold this paper comprehensively analyzes the effects of these incentive systems on effort the net benefits of effort and the accuracy of information about agents performance and lays out methods for estimating each these methods are then used to reveal the motivations physiological limits and racing strategy of ultramarathoners trying to complete a one hundred mile race in under twenty four hours

endowments and the allocation of schooling in the family and in the marriage market the twins experiment 03 we show how comparisons between the within twin correlations of human capital outcomes across identical and nonidentical twins can be used to identify the variability in the individual specific component of endowments and the responsiveness of schooling to individual specific endowments in the family and in the marriage market even when schooling is measured with error estimates from two twins samples indicate that 27 42 percent of the variance in log earnings obesity is due to variability in individual specific endowments allocations of schooling reinforce specific endowments and individual specific earnings endowments of men and their wives schooling are negatively associated

estimating the economic return to schooling on the basis of panel data this paper is concerned with estimating the economic return to schooling of men in the netherlands an iv approach is adopted to estimate a panel data model with random individual effects the fact that older individuals have relatively less schooling than younger individuals is exploited to construct instruments and gnp per worker at the time an individual turned 16 is included to control for birth cohort effects the estimated return to schooling is about 15 ignoring the endogeneity of schooling results in a lower return to schooling ignoring birth cohort effects results in a lower return to work experience

returns to education in china we were fortunate in having access to a survey of 800 adults in nanjing that was conducted by the international wool secretariate in 1986 the survey was intended for market research e g brand recognition but questions were asked about the respondent s age occupation income and education level these questions though not ideally worded were sufficient for the undertaking of a returns to education study we believe the data to be unique and of course the issue of interest is whether a member of the workforce in china faces investment decisions on education similar to those faced elsewhere the influence of sex and marital status on the level of income achieved by an individual was also examined the basic equation modeled personal income as a nonlinear function of schooling and experience but multicollinearity problems were encountered as a result a production function approach was successfully adapted to the returns toeducation model the collinearity problem was overcome and this approach allowed the ease of substitution of education for experience in income generation to be examined more formally an additional problem of errors in variables arose from a failing in questionnaire design and was handled statistically

risk aversion in the nash bargaining problem with risky outcomes and risky disagreement points according to this paper the analysis of the nash bargaining problem with risky outcomes must include the cases where the disagreement outcome itself is risky as well thus one generalizes the roth and rothblum results to models with risky disagreement outcome as well it turns out that their result will depend in some cases upon the degree of change in risk aversion particularly when the potential agreement has an outcome which makes player 2 worse off compared to the disagreement and if the disagreement does not dominate that outcome i e its support contains a worse outcome then when player 2 becomes sufficiently more risk averse player 1 becomes better off thus one obotains that increase in risk aversion may be disadvantageous to player 2 even if the risky disagreement is preferred to some outcome of the risky agreement

reputation in an internet auction market i introduction without transmission of credible information asymmetries may lead to underproduction of goods or even market failure reputation mitigates inefficiencies associated with information asymmetries by providing an informative signal of quality 1 the difficulty in quantifying reputation means that few studies can analyze empirically the role of reputation in markets our analysis of a quantified market observed measure of reputation provides direct evidence of the effect of a seller s reputation on the terms of a onetime real world transaction thereby contributing empirical support to a fundamental economic principle this study empirically examines person to person transactions within the internet market known as ebay in this virtual market of unseen participants and products buyers and sellers face the risks of repudiation as the counter party may deny the agreement after the fact buyers assume risks associated with lack of seller integrity and asymmetric information about the particular product as the buyer is typically required to send payment before the seller ships the product in addition for many ebay transactions the cost of enforcing a contract is high relative to the transaction s value resulting in a practical absence of legal enforcement 2 by providing a history of trade execution information ebay benefits market participants by reducing information asymmetries while achieving substantial transaction cost economies market participants relate personal experiences which ebay uses to calculate a numerical reputation measure for each user market participants in turn can use this reputation measure to assess counter party risk and adjust bidding behavior accordingly in a sample of 460 auctions held between january 1998 and july 1998 we find a positive relation between prices and ebay s reputation measure higher reputation sellers experience higher auction prices ceteris paribus our findings suggest that repeat players are rewarded for building reputation consistent with the belief that the high reputation seller s value of future transactions outweighs the value of taking advantage of the buyer in the current transaction buyers are willing to pay more to a higher reputation seller this article contributes to the literature not only by providing quantitative support of long accepted reputation theories but also by illustrating the use of nontraditional markets as a natural laboratory for experiments this article is an example of how a newly formed electronic market can provide the elements necessary for analytical research we find that ebay transactions for this item exhibit characteristics similar to transactions in more conventional markets namely 1 prices are higher when there is less quantity supplied when fewer of the items are available the same day 2 prices are lower during periods of lower demand times less likely to have high traffic 3 sellers with higher shipping and handling costs receive lower prices and 4 sellers failing to provide information about shipping and handling fees i e larger information asymmetries receive fewer bids dramatic innovations in online market structure and increasing availability of online market data should enable researchers to examine directly other traditionally non quantifiable economic ideas this article is organized as follows section ii describes how reputation can be used to facilitate transactions in the presence of asymmetric information section iii describes the ebay market summarizes the listing and bidding processes and discusses the reputation mechanism for this market section iv presents the price and reputation descriptive statistics associated with a consistently auctioned item and reports the empirical findings of how this item s highest bid price varies with the level of the seller s reputation we conclude in section v with a discussion of ebay s continued attempts to add value to the market through recent structural changes

birth weight and schooling and earnings estimates from a sample of twins based on analysis of a sample of twins this study suggests that birth weight is not related to levels of schooling that it plays only a minor role in the determination of earnings and that ability differences that are not removed in the within twins model of earnings are not biasing the results in twins studies such as ashenfelter and krueger ashenfelter o krueger a 1994 estimates of the economic return to schooling from a new sample of twins american economic review 84 5 pp 1157 1173 d 2004 elsevier b v all rights reserved

estimating average and local average treatment effects of education when compulsory schooling laws really matter the change to the minimum school leaving age in the united kingdom from 14 to 15 had a powerful and immediate effect that redirected almost half the population of 14 year olds in the mid twentieth century to stay in school for one more year the magnitude of this impact provides a rare opportunity to a estimate local average treatment effects late of high school that come close to population average treatment effects ate and b estimate returns to education using a regression discontinuity design instead of previous estimates that rely on difference in differences methodology or relatively weak instruments comparing late estimates for the united states and canada where very few students were affected by compulsory school laws to the united kingdom estimates provides a test as to whether instrumental variables iv returns to schooling often exceed ordinary least squares ols because gains are high only for small and peculiar groups among the more general population i find instead that the benefits from compulsory schooling are very large whether these laws have an impact on a majority or minority of those exposed

estimating the return to endogenous schooling decisions via conditional second moments this paper employs conditional second moments to identify the impact of education in wage regressions where education is treated as endogenous this approach avoids the use of instrumental variables in a setting where instruments are frequently not available we employ this methodology to estimate the returns to schooling for a sample of australian workers we find that accounting for the endogeneity of education in this manner increases the estimated return to education from 6 percent to 10 percent

repetition reputation and raiding i develop a multitarget takeover model with bid revisions in which bidders desire a reputation for having low valuations such a reputation increases the likelihood that future targets will accept low premium bids bidders develop reputation by using low take it or leave it offers consequently tender premiums bid revision rates and success rates are lower for continuing bidders than for those considering only a single target success rates vary within a series and reputation building is more likely with highly correlated target valuations i provide an exploratory empirical analysis consistent with lower premiums from continuing bidders and discuss some resulting implications regarding raiders conglomerates and resistance strategies article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

why did the ssi disabled program grow so much disentangling the effect of medicaid the number of participants in the ssi program grew by 1 1 million from 1987 to 1993 this paper examines the role of medicaid on the ssi participation decision i use the rapid growth in average medicaid expenditure as a proxy for its value ols estimates of medicaid s effect may be biased because of omitted variables bias and measurement error i therefore apply two stage least squares to estimate medicaid s effect using average medicaid expenditure for blind ssi recipients as an instrument these estimates show that rising medicaid expenditure significantly increased ssi participation among adults with low permanent incomes explaining 20 of the growth

natural natural experiments in economics the recent literature exploiting natural events as natural experiment instruments is reviewed to assess to what extent it has advanced empirical knowledge a weakness of the studies that adopt this approach is that the necessary set of behavioral market and technological assumptions made by the authors in justifying their interpretations of the estimates is often absent the methodology and findings from twenty studies are summarized and simple economic models are used to elucidate the implicit assumptions made by the authors and to demonstrate the sensitivity of the interpretations of the findings to the relaxation of some of these assumptions