corruption and the shadow economy one way or two way street this paper attempts to bring some resolution to the relation between corruption and the shadow economy while previous research focuses on the static relationship between the two we account for dynamics using a panel vector autoregression model and consider influences from the official economy and institutional quality using cross national panel data for 108 countries over the period 1984 2006 results show a bidirectional relationship with initial complementarity and substitution over time thus the nature of the two way street is shown to change over time and our consideration of dynamics reveals the complementarity substitution switch

the ir relevance of real wage rigidity in the new keynesian model with search frictions we explore the role of real wage dynamics in a new keynesian business cycle model with search and matching frictions in the labor market both job creation and destruction are endogenous we show that the model generates counterfactual inflation and labor market dynamics in particular it fails to generate a beveridge curve vacancies and unemployment are positively correlated introducing real wage rigidity leads to a negative correlation and increases the magnitude of labor market flows to more realistic values however inflation dynamics are only weakly affected by real wage rigidity this is because of the presence of labor market frictions which generate long run employment relationships the measure of real marginal cost that is relevant for inflation dynamics via the phillips curve contains a dynamic component that does not necessarily move with real wages

vacancies unemployment and the phillips curve abstract the canonical new keynesian phillips curve has become a standard component of models designed for monetary policy analysis however in the basic new keynesian model there is no unemployment all variation in labor input occurs along the intensive hours margin and the driving variable for inflation depends on workers marginal rates of substitution between leisure and consumption in this paper we incorporate a theory of unemployment into the new keynesian theory of inflation and empirically test its implications for inflation dynamics we show how a traditional phillips curve linking inflation and unemployment can be derived and how the elasticity of inflation with respect to unemployment depends on structural characteristics of the labor market such as the matching technology that pairs vacancies with unemployed workers we estimate on us data the phillips curve generated by the model while we can reject the baseline new keynesian phillips curve in favor of the search frictions specification we show it is still too stylized to fully describe the dynamics of firms marginal costs

measuring the hidden economy implications for econometric modelling in this paper i support using econometric techniques to measure the size of the hidden underground economy because such information is important for the construction of certain economic models and for empirical policy analysis generally detailed information on the output of the hidden economy is unavailable even where careful measures of the underground economy have been constructed usually these data are available only periodically important exceptions are the classic results of tanzi 1983 for the united states and bhattacharyya s 1990 series for the united kingdom in the case of the new zealand economy a time series of data on the hidden economy has been generated recently giles 1997a this provides the unusual opportunity to undertake econometric modelling in a way which takes account of such activity formally moreover we can examine the policy implications arising from the linkages between hidden output and various measured economic aggregates this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

the hidden economy as an unobserved variable abstract the technique of unobserved variables is used to estimate the relative size and development time of the hidden economy of oecd countries the burdens of taxation and regulations and the tax morality turn out to be statistically significant determinants at the end of the scandinavian and benc lux countries are expected to have a relatively large and japan and switzerland a relatively small hidden economy canada and the united states are rank in the middle the size of all hidden sectors is estimated to have increased in the period 1960 1973 relative to officially measured gnp

empirical evidence on inflation expectations in the new keynesian phillips curve abstract we review the main identification strategies and empirical evidence on the role of expectations in the new keynesian phillips curve paying particular attention to the issue of weak identi

a monetary business cycle model with unemployment abstract to reproduce key features of the post war u s data most monetary business cycle models must assume there are high price markups and that agents have high labour supply elasticities despite the existence of contradictory microeconomic evidence this paper eliminates the need for these assumptions by introducing imperfectly observed effort into a limited participation model the estimated model is better able to capture the sluggish price response to a monetary policy shock than the standard model and is consistent with evidence regarding the qualitative responses of the u s economy to technology shocks fiscal policy shocks and monetary policy shocks

overtime labor employment frictions and the new keynesian phillips curve abstract this paper presents a new keynesian nk model that is extended to differentiate between straight time and overtime work the model proposes that the new keynesian phillips curve nkpc should be estimated with marginal cost measured in terms of overtime labor the resulting coefficient estimates are in accordance with theory and statistically significant for the hybrid nkpc which allows for backward looking price setters but not for the purely forward looking nkpc in the hybrid model backward looking behavior is found to be predominant the paper also shows that the incorporation of employment frictions predetermined employment and convex adjustment costs in nk models helps reconcile the frequent price changes found in the microdata with the degree of sluggishness in inflation adjustment to output changes at the macro level

estimating the size of the shadow economy in spain a structural model with latent variables there has recently been a revival of international interest in measuring the size of the shadow economy the current study adopts an approach to the spanish case that is based on the theory of unobservable variables this methodology involves the estimation of structural models mimic which analyses a set of causes of the shadow economy while simultaneously taking into account its influence upon a series of indicators the proposed model permits the determination of a relative evolution over time of the size of the shadow economy which requires the calibration of the model with an exogenous estimation in order to obtain real values the exogenous estimation employed is that obtained by a monetary method based on a money demand function the results show a considerable shadow economy measuring between 8 and 18 8 of gdp in the period 1976 2002 and demonstrate that the shadow economy is significantly influenced by the tax burden the degree of regulation and unit labour costs a positive correlation is

labor tax avoidance and its determinants the case of mafia firms in italy this paper develops two new measures of labor tax avoidance ltav based on social contribution expenses reported in financial statements and tests them and their determinants within a sample of 224 italian firms defined as legally registered mafia firms lmfs due to having been confiscated at some point by judicial authorities in relation to alleged connections with italian organized crime overall our results reveal that before confiscation lmfs engage more in ltav than lawful firms do whereas after confiscation there is no significant difference between both types of firm furthermore we find that several factors have a significant influence on the probability of engaging in such a practice this study can enhance further research on the effectiveness of our measures and on the determinants of ltav in other contexts and for other types of firms moreover these measures can be added to the other direct and indirect methods commonly employed to measure and detect undeclared work representing a primary means of ltav finally our study allows inferring conclusions on the relation between corporate social responsibility and tax avoidance suggesting that socially irresponsible firms such as lmfs are more likely to adopt this practice

does labor s share drive inflation a number of researchers have recently argued that the new keynesian phillips curve matches the empirical behavior of inflation well when the labor income share is used as a driving variable but fits poorly when deterministically detrended output is used the theoretical motivation for these results rests on the idea that the output gap the deviation between actual and potential output is better captured by the labor income share in turn implying that central banks should raise interest rates in response to increases in this variable we show that the empirical evidence generally suggests that the labor share version of the new keynesian phillips curve is a very poor model of price inflation we conclude that there is little reason to view the labor income share as a good measure of the output gap or as an appropriate variable for incorporation in a monetary policy rule

shadow economy and unemployment rate in u s a is there a structural relationship an empirical analysis this article aims to estimate the size of the us shadow economy se using a structural equation approach and to evaluate if a structural relationship exists between the se and the unemployment rate ur in the united states the size of the se is estimated to be decreasing over the last two decades we corroborate the existence of a structural relationship between the se and the ur by using a simple theoretical model furthermore we extend the okun s law to estimate the structural relationship between growth rate of official gdp se and ur our results indicate a significant positive relationship between the se and the ur

understanding unemployment flows this article reviews the current state of research on unemployment dynamics in macroeconomic models in particular it discusses the increasingly widespread use of the labour market flow approach as implemented via a search and matching process and presents main policy considerations that arise from this approach related to unemployment benefit systems and employment protection it reviews the implications of the labour flow approach for dynamic properties of macroeconomic models and discusses policy implications for macroeconomic and labour market policies finally it presents new evidence on the effectiveness of policies to influence unemployment in and outflows copyright 2011 oxford university press

price level versus inflation targeting abstract this paper shows that price level targeting outperforms inflation targeting in the standard new keynesian model under the assumption that the central bank is forced to operate in an environment characterized by discretion in the benchmark case with no persistence in the shocks the commitment solution can be fully replicated intuitively price level targeting introduces history dependence and a stationary level of prices both of which are prominent features of the commitment solution

smuggling around the world evidence from a structural equation model this article uses a multiple indicators multiple causes mimic model to analyse the determinants of smuggling the analysis reveals that higher corruption and a lower rule of law encourage smuggling tariffs and trade restrictions are important push factors while a higher black market premium bmp discourages smugglers based on the mimic estimates we calculate an index of smuggling which provides a ranking for 54 countries we find that smuggling is rampant in cameroon pakistan and kenya while it is least prevalent in switzerland finland and sweden

the underground economy in spain an alternative to unemployment this paper analyses the factors which determine whether an individual works in the formal sector in the informal sector or remains unemployed in the spanish labour market we highlight the implications of high unemployment on an individual s decision to work in the underground economy we postulate that an individual decides or is chosen whether to work in the formal sector or not in a first stage and if not in a second stage decides whether to work in the underground sector or to remain unemployed we estimate a bivariate probit model which controls for selectivity bias in the second stage the result indicates on the one hand that heads of household who benefit more from social security provisions obtained in formal sector jobs are more likely to work in such sector than others besides demand restrictions seem to operate as well individuals with higher education have easier access to the formal sector on the other hand among those who do not work in the formal sector the probability of wor

decentralization and the shadow economy oates meets allingham sandmo this article studies the impact of decentralization on the shadow economy we argue that decentralization may decrease the size of the shadow economy mainly through two transmission channels 1 decentralization enhancing public sector efficiency efficiency effect and 2 decentralization reducing the distance between bureaucrats and economic agents which increases the probability of detection of shadow economic activities deterrence effect using various measures of fiscal political and government employment decentralization in a cross section of countries we find the deterrence effect to be of more importance the deterrence effect is stronger the lower the degree of institutional quality we find no robust evidence of the efficiency effect

evaluating the performance of the search and matching model abstract does the search and matching model fit aggregate u s labor market data while the model has become an important tool of macroeconomic analysis recent literature pointed to some significant failures in accounting for the data this paper aims to answer two questions i does the model fit the data and if so on what dimensions ii does the data fit the model i e what are the data which are relevant to be explained by the model the analysis shows that the model fits certain specifications of the data on many dimensions though not on all this includes capturing the high persistence and high volatility of most of the key variables the negative co variation of unemployment and vacancies and the behavior of the worker job finding rate a key role in this fit is played by the convexity of hiring costs and the stochastic properties of the separation rate the latter is a major component of the rate discounting the future value of the job worker match the paper offers a workable empirically grounded version of the model for the analysis of aggregate u s labor market dynamics

shadow economies size causes and consequences using various methods the size of the shadow economy in 76 developing transition and oecd countries is estimated average size varies from 12 percent of gdp for oecd countries to 23 percent for transition countries and 39 percent for developing countries increasing taxation and social security contributions combined with rising state regulations are driving forces for the increase of the shadow economy especially in oecd countries according to some findings corruption has a positive impact on the size of the shadow economy and a growing shadow economy has a negative effect on official gdp growth

the shadow economy as an equilibrium outcome abstract we construct a dynamic general equilibrium model of tax evasion where agents choose to report some of their income unreported income requires using a payment method that avoids recordkeeping in some markets cash trade using cash to avoid taxes is the shadow economy in our model we then calibrate our model using money interest rate and gdp data to back out the size of the shadow economy for a sample of countries and compare our measures to traditional reduced form estimates

international business cycles what are the facts abstract modern business cycle theory involves developing models that explain stylized facts for this strategy to be successful these facts should be well established in this paper we focus on the stylized facts of international business cycles we use the generalized method of moments and quarterly data from twenty industrialized countries to estimate and test hypotheses concerning pairwise cross country correlations of macroeconomic aggregates a remarkable common feature emerges these correlations are mostly positive not very high and of a similar order of magnitude the most important discrepancy with the theory is the low cross country correlation of consumption

private behaviour and government policy in interdependent economies this is a comprehensive survey of the macroeconomic co ordination of international economies subjects covered include monetary policies and exchange rates abolishing exchange controls policy co ordination and the international monetary system assessing monetary shocks and exchange rate variability ems stability economic interactions and fiscal policies the contributors are anthony s courakis ronald macdonald mark p taylor peter n smith michael r wickens jeffrey a frankel kenneth a froot michael j artis giorgio radaelli shaziye gazioglu michael j moore neil rankin s mansoob murshed somnath sen paul r masson malcolm knight patrick minford emanuel pikoulakis david currie ullrich hoffmeyer and frederick van der ploeg this book is intended for international monetary economists and macroeconomists graduate and third year undergraduate students

uses and abuses of estimates of the underground economy ered valuable by at least a part of society narcotics production and distribution prostitution gambling these activities can be large in some countries and should be counted in the national accounts of all countries although they rarely are their omission affects the comparability of data across countries the incomes generated by illegal activities are rarely taxed many other activities such as those associated with the subsistence or informal sectors are estimated rather than measured and are generally not taxed because of the low value they generate to those who engage in them in conclusion there are many reasons beside the ones discussed in this paper why the measurements of national output may not be complete about two decades ago a few economists became convinced that many normal economic activities that should be measured and taxed were taking place underground or in the shadow thus presumably escaping the attention of the statistical offices of the tax authorities and more generally of the government regulators some of these economists also claimed that like alice in wonderland these hidden activities were growing in a ridiculous fashion see gutmann 1977 and feige 1979 by the late 1970s the role of government had grown enormously so that the level of taxation and the tax rates had risen sharply and regulations had proliferated in many countries see tanzi and schuknecht 1997 these developments had created strong incentives for individuals and enterprises to go underground to avoid taxes and regulatory restrictions thus a good case could be made that what came to be called the underground economy was a phenomenon to worry about newspaper articles were ready to accept the

currency demand and the growth of the underground economy in canada 1991 1995 the extent to which the recent introduction of a value added tax in canada contributed to the growth of the underground economy remains controversial if underground economy growth led to increased currency holdings and shifted the currency demand function forecasts for the period after the introduction of the tax should tend to underestimate currency holdings using a cointegration based error correction mechanism in vector autoregression models currency demand is estimated using quarterly data for 1968 1990 and dynamic forecasts are made for 1991 1995 on average currency demand is underpredicted but by a small amount the results are consistent with an increase in the underground economy of between 0 01 and 0 3 of gdp as a result of the new tax if changes in marginal direct tax rates are considered the underground economy may have grown between 0 1 and 0 7 of gdp in 1991 1995

a neoclassical model of the phillips curve relation this paper integrates the modern theory of unemployment with a limited participation model of money and asks whether such a framework can produce correlations like those associated with the phillips curve as well as realistic labor market dynamics the model incorporates both monetary and real shocks the response of the economy to monetary policy shocks is consistent with recent evidence about the impact of these shocks on the economy

factor complementarity and labour market dynamics abstract we propose and estimate a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model featuring search and matching frictions deep habits and a ces production function the model successfully replicates the cyclical properties of labour market variables in the us economy for three main reasons first two of the endogenous mechanisms of the model factor complementarity and unemployment benefits play a key role for explaining the amplification in unemployment and vacancies second deep habits have a smaller but significant role as an endogenous mechanism third capital augmenting productivity investment specific and matching efficiency innovations explain large part of the variation in labour market variables

unemployment and the shadow economy abstractcurrent research links the shadow economy se and the unemployment rate either indirectly or by means of a preliminary estimate this article establishes and empirically implements a methodology for estimating the size of the se as a direct function of the tax and unemployment rates this link is found to be extremely relevant in countries with high unemployment rates such as greece and spain and less relevant in countries with moderate unemployment rates such as germany and italy unemployment s contribution to the se is shown to be significant especially in the years following the economic downturn of 2008 the calculation of the variance and distribution of these estimates is another significant contribution the common criticism that se estimates are unreliable is addressed by calculating the variance and the distribution of the estimates and the large size of the se in greece and spain is once again confirmed

multidimensional housing deprivation indices with application to spain the main aim of this article is to define a multidimensional housing deprivation index and identify the main determining characteristics of this phenomenon using spain as reference a latent variable model is used in order to overcome some of the traditional difficulties encountered in multidimensional deprivation studies the construction of a latent structure model has allowed a set of partial housing deprivation indices to be grouped together under a single index it has also enabled each individual to be assigned to a different class depending on the level and type of deprivation results show that the vector of observed variables having hot running water heating a leaky roof damp walls or floor rot in window frames and floors and overcrowding and the correlations among such variables can be explained by a single latent variable there are also specific characteristics that differentiate the population affected by housing deprivation

unemployment and the business cycle abstract this paper presents a dynamic general equilibrium model where labor effort is imperfectly observable and there is unemployment in equilibrium in contrast to shirking models in the efficiency wage literature detected shirkers are not dismissed instead they face a monetary punishment because they forgo an increase in their compensation estimated versions of the model can generate the high variation in employment and low variation of real wages observed over the business cycle and are consistent with existing qualitative evidence about the responses of the economy to fiscal policy shocks

optimal monetary policy with the cost channel in the standard new keynesian framework an optimizing policy maker does not face a trade off between stabilizing the inflation rate and stabilizing the gap between actual output and output under flexible prices an ad hoc exogenous cost push shock is typically added to the inflation equation to generate a meaningful policy problem in this paper we show that a cost push shock arises endogenously when a cost channel for monetary policy is introduced into the new keynesian model a cost channel is present when firms marginal cost depends directly on the nominal rate of interest besides providing empirical evidence for a cost channel we explore its implications for optimal monetary policy we show that its presence alters the optimal policy problem in important ways for example both the output gap and inflation are allowed to fluctuate in response to productivity and demand shocks under optimal monetary policy

efficiency and labor market dynamics in a model of labor selection this article characterizes efficient labor market allocations in a labor selection model the model s crucial aspect is cross sectional heterogeneity for new job contacts which leads to an endogenous selection threshold for new hires with cross sectional dispersion calibrated to microeconomic data 40 of empirically relevant fluctuations in the job finding rate arise which contrasts with results in an efficient search and matching economy the efficient selection model s results hold in partial and general equilibrium as well as with sequential search abstract from author

monetary policy trend inflation and unemployment volatility the literature has long agreed that the dmp model after diamond 1982 mortensen 1982 pissarides 1985 with search and matching frictions in the labor market can deliver large volatilities in labor market quantities consistent with empirical data only if there is at least some wage stickiness i show however that the model can deliver nontrivial volatilities without wage stickiness as long as it has price dispersion and nonzero long run inflation rates i find that by keeping inflation at a positive rate monetary policy may be accountable for the large standard deviations observed on labor market variables in addition the shimer 2005 puzzle disappears under monetary policy shocks

screening and labor market flows in a model with heterogeneous workers we construct a monetary model in which workers are heterogeneous and productivity is worker specific resulting in time varying deviations between the average productivity of employed and unemployed workers we assume the worker specific component of productivity which we label as the worker s efficiency level is unobservable ex ante by firms and job search is nondirected by interviewing an unemployed worker firms can observe the worker s efficiency level workers with low overall productivity may be interviewed but not hired as firms screen these workers out during the interview process we show that screening amplifies the volatility of the exit rate from unemployment capturing the idea that firms become more selective in a recession reducing the vacancy yield relative to a model with homogeneous levels of efficiency following a negative productivity shock the

the phillips and beveridge curves revisited abstract this paper extends the labor market search model to account for monopolist intermediate good firms who face price adjustment costs we show quantitatively that embedding monetary shocks in this framework allows to mimic the phillips and beveridge curves

search and matching frictions and optimal monetary policy abstract a recent literature has merged the new keynesian and the search and matching frameworks which has allowed the former to analyze the joint dynamics of unemployment and inflation this paper analyzes optimal monetary policy in this kind of hybrid framework i show that zero inflation is optimal when all wages are nash bargained in every period and the economy s steady state is efficient in the more realistic case in which nominal wage bargaining is staggered a case against price stability arises in response to real shocks the central bank should use price inflation so as to avoid excessive unemployment volatility and excessive dispersion in hiring rates for a plausible calibration the welfare loss under the zero inflation policy is about three times as large as under the optimal policy

inflation dynamics and labor market specifications a bayesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium approach for japan s economy i introduction inflation dynamics have been investigated using dynamic stochastic general equilibrium dsge models with sticky prices in the models inflation is determined by the new keynesian phillips curve nkpc where real marginal cost of producing output is the main driving force and varies with changes in labor cost therefore the specification of the labor market plays a crucial role in describing inflation dynamics many previous studies use sticky wage models e g christiano eichenbaum and evans 2005 levin et al 2006 smets and wouters 2003 2007 in this specification of the labor market workers set wages on a staggered basis la calvo 1983 while firms employ all workers and adjust labor input by changing hours per worker i e intensive margin of labor consequently the cost involved to adjust employment is absent in sticky wage models recently there has been a surge of interest in the role of the extensive margin of labor i e employment for inflation dynamics walsh 2005 krause and lubik 2007 and trigari 2009 for instance incorporate sticky prices in a labor market search model that has been analyzed in the literature starting from mortensen and pissarides 1994 merz 1995 and andolfatto 1996 1 in this labor market specification firms adjust labor input by changing employment while wages are determined through bargaining between workers and firms these characteristics of the labor market differ radically from those in sticky wage models despite this fundamental difference existing literature lacks the formal comparison of sticky wage models and labor market search models the present article fills this gap specifically we estimate a sticky wage model and a labor market search model with japan s data using a bayesian likelihood approach and compare these two models in terms of marginal likelihood and out of sample forecast performance the estimation results show that the labor market search model is superior to the sticky wage model in terms of both marginal likelihood and out of sample forecast performance particularly regarding inflation why is the former model better able to fit the data and forecast inflation because the non labor market part is identical between these two models the key difference is the relationship between real wages and inflation or output in the sticky wage model real wages are highly correlated with output in the presence of monopolistically competitive labor markets and unit labor cost under full employment is identical with real marginal cost and thus drives inflation dynamics however the cross correlation between real wages and output in the data is not so high as in the sticky wage model besides the data of real wages and output determine the unit labor cost which lags far behind inflation by more than 3 years whereas a high contemporaneous correlation between inflation and real marginal cost is represented in the nkpc in the labor market search model labor bargaining generates a mild cross correlation between real wages and output moreover real marginal cost is determined by both hiring cost and unit labor cost that varies with employment fluctuations which gives rise to a high contemporaneous correlation between inflation and real marginal cost therefore the labor market search model is better able to fit the data and forecast inflation in related literature rabanal and rubio ramirez 2005 show that a sticky wage model matches u s data far better in terms of marginal likelihood than a flexible wage model christoffel linzert and linzert 2006 gertler sala and trigari 2008 and krause lopez salido and lubik 2008 estimate a labor market search model with u s or euro area data to our knowledge the present article is the first to compare a sticky wage model and a labor market search model in terms of marginal likelihood and out of sample forecast performance

business cycles and labor market search the quantitative implications of labor market search for economic fluctuations are evaluated in the context of a real business cycle model incorporating labor market search into the model is found to improve its empirical performance along several dimensions in particular hours now fluctuate substantially more than wages and the contemporaneous correlation between hours and productivity falls in addition the model replicates the observation that output growth displays positive autocorrelation at short horizons overall the empirical results suggest that the labor market search environment embodies a quantitatively important propagation mechanism copyright 1996 by american economic association

inflation and labor market dynamics revisited abstract we demonstrate that the presence of an empirically plausible labor adjustment decision at the firm level rationalizes strategic complementarities in price setting which help explain inflation dynamics those strategic complementarities are typically assumed away in the related existing literature this motivates our revisiting of inflation and labor market dynamics

banks leverage behaviour in a two agent new keynesian model abstract we study the distributive effects of a negative shock to banks assets in a saver capitalist model we analyze how this kind of heterogeneity affects macroeconomic variables and the distribution between savers and capitalists through banks leverage procyclicality the distributive effects are non favourable to savers and long lasting lower risk aversion of capitalists strengthens and lengthens the procyclicality of leverage leading to a lower decrease of savers income and consumption whilst stricter regulatory requirements are favourable to savers a tougher inflation targeting is unfavourable to savers the model is robust to the combined introduction of labour market frictions and hysteresis which together generate an amplification and lengthening of the recessionary and distributive effects unfavourable to savers

borrowing constraints collateral fluctuations and the labor market abstract this paper studies the effects of changes in collateral requirements on the cyclical properties of unemployment and job creation i develop a general equilibrium model in which labor market frictions prevent the costless adjustment of employment financial frictions arise from an imperfect enforcement contract an environment in which borrowing limits are linked to the firm s physical capital stock can quantitatively account for the sluggish response of labor market variables to productivity shocks i find that fluctuations in those variables are mainly driven by changes in financial conditions the model can explain 75 of the variation in job creation observed in the data and it can also account for the persistent reduction in both output and leverage that follows a contraction in credit availability

dynamic inconsistencies counterfactual implications of a class of rational expectations models a number of recent papers have developed dynamic macroeconomic models that incorporate rational expectations and optimizing foundations while the theoretical motivation behind these models is sound the dynamic implications of many of the specifications that assume rational expectations and optimizing behavior can be seriously at odds with the data for both inflation and real side variables exhibit gradual and hump shaped responses to real and monetary shocks for models that are intended for monetary policy analysis these dynamic shortcomings should be considered quite serious when monetary policy has only short run effects on real variables the inability to approximately capture the short run responses of inflation or real variables to policy shocks makes a model unsuitable for policy analysis this paper identifies a simple feature common to many dynamic specifications for prices and real variables that causes the problem the paper also discusses several potential solutions to the problem including alterations to the expectations assumption to the order of differencing implicit in the model and to the underlying behavioral assumptions this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

an econometric method of estimating the hidden economy united kingdom 1960 1984 estimates and tests in this paper a method of estimating the unrecorded part of the gnp based on a modified reset procedure applied to a currency demand equation is proposed the model passes all standard diagnostic tests and the estimates of the unrecorded economy provide plausible answers when used as a proxy for the tax evaded income the method is easily applicable to most countries with minor modifications copyright 1990 by royal economic society

wages and the value of nonemployment nonemployment is often posited as a worker s outside option in wage setting models such as bargaining and wage posting the value of nonemployment is therefore a key determinant of wages we measure the wage effect of changes in the value of nonemployment among initially employed workers our quasi experimental variation in the value of nonemployment arises from four large reforms of unemployment insurance ui benefit levels in austria we document that wages are insensitive to ui benefit changes point estimates imply a wage response of less than 0 01 per 1 00 ui benefit increase and we can reject sensitivities larger than 0 03 the insensitivity holds even among workers with low wages and high predicted unemployment duration and among job switchers and recently unemployed workers the insensitivity of wages to the nonemployment value presents a puzzle to the widely used nash bargaining model which predicts a sensitivity of 0 24 0 48 our evidence supports wage setting models that insulate wages from the value of nonemployment

mismatch shocks and unemployment during the great recession summary we investigate the macroeconomic consequences of fluctuations in the effectiveness of the labor market matching process with a focus on the great recession we conduct our analysis in the context of an estimated medium scale dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with sticky prices and equilibrium search unemployment that features a shock to the matching efficiency or mismatch shock we find that this shock is not important for unemployment fluctuations in normal times however it plays a somewhat larger role during the great recession when it contributes to raise the actual unemployment rate by around 1 3 percentage points and the natural rate by around 2 percentage points the mismatch shock is the dominant driver of the natural rate of unemployment and explains part of the recent shift of the beveridge curve copyright 2016 john wiley sons ltd

the effects of irregular markets on macroeconomic policy some estimates for belgium abstract the paper aims at evaluating the efficiency of traditional keynesian demand or neo classical income policies in the presence of an irregular sector the analysis is applied to the belgian economy for which it is shown that the objectives of increasing output and employment and reducing the importance of the irregular economy will often lead to conflicting policy prescriptions in addition keynesian multipliers may be lowered by as much as 40 though the irregular market only represents some 10 to 15 of total activity