dealing with consumer default bankruptcy vs garnishment abstract what are the positive and normative implications of eliminating bankruptcy protection for indebted individuals without bankruptcy protection creditors can collect on defaulted debt to the extent permitted by wage garnishment laws the elimination lowers the default premium on unsecured debt and permits low net worth individuals suffering bad earnings shocks to smooth consumption by borrowing there is a large increase in consumer debt financed essentially by super wealthy individuals a modest drop in capital per worker and a higher frequency of consumer default average welfare rises by 1 of consumption in perpetuity with about 90 of households favoring the change

do payday loans cause bankruptcy abstractpayday loans are used by millions of americans every year despite their annualized interest rates of several hundred percent we provide new evidence on the consequences of payday borrowing and the determinants of personal bankruptcy using an administrative panel data set of loan records in a regression discontinuity design we estimate that payday loans increase personal bankruptcy rates by a factor of two we assess possible mechanisms and find the most support for a novel one payday loan access appears to induce bankruptcy filings by worsening the cash flow position of the household

the political economy of bilateral bailouts imf loans during times of financial crisis often occur in conjunction with bilateral financial rescues these bilateral bailouts are substantial in size and a central component of international cooperation during financial crises we analyze the political economy of bilateral bailouts and study the trade offs that potential creditor governments experience when other countries find themselves in financial distress creditor governments want to stabilize crisis countries by providing additional liquidity particularly if the crisis country is economically or politically important to them but they are constrained by domestic politics politicians aim to balance these countervailing pressures they provide bailouts when their own economy is exposed to negative spillover effects and when the crisis country is important for geostrategic military or political reasons domestic economic and political constraints on the other hand limit their ability to bail out other countries we test our hypotheses using an original data set on bilateral bailouts by the g7 countries to countries that experienced financial crises between 1975 and 2010 the findings of our statistical analysis support our theoretical argument and contribute to a deeper understanding of international cooperation s complex structure during financial crises

the performance of agricultural market advisory services in corn and soybeans the purpose of this article is to evaluate the performance of market advisory services for the 1995 2003 corn and soybean crops a new database from the agricultural market advisory services agmas project is used in the evaluation this database should not be subject to survivorship and hindsight biases overall the results provide little evidence that advisory services as a group outperform market benchmarks particularly after considering risk the evidence is more positive versus the farmer benchmarks even after taking risk into account results also suggest that it is difficult to predict the pricing performance of advisory services across crop years

consequences of debt forgiveness strategic default contagion and lender learning i use a unique data set of loans to small business owners to examine whether lenders face adverse consequences when they grant debt forgiveness to borrowers i provide evidence consistent with borrowers communicating their debt forgiveness to other borrowers who then more frequently strategically default on their own obligations this strategic default contagion is economically large when the lender doubles debt forgiveness the default rate increases by 10 9 on average using an exogenous shock to the lender s forgiveness policy my findings suggest that as the lender learns about the extent of borrower communication the lender tightens its debt forgiveness policy to mitigate default contagion

recent developments in consumer credit and default literature this survey discusses recent contributions to the quantitative literature on unsecured consumer debt and default and some ongoing challenges for the literature key topics include the sources of the rise in personal bankruptcies the importance of asymmetric information and the effects of developments in information technologies on consumer credit markets delinquency and informal bankruptcy debt collection and restructuring of distressed debt the cyclical behavior of consumer debt and default and the insurance role of household debt implications for welfare analysis and policy design are discussed several theoretical contributions and approaches to modeling the consumer credit markets are also highlighted

forward and futures contracts as preharvest commodity marketing instruments empirically significant differences between forward and futures contracts evidence their imperfect substitutability as preharvest marketing instruments certain combinations of market conditions make the two types of contracts complementary rather than interchangeable forwards and futures differ conceptually because of lumpiness marking to market and basis of these differences basis constitutes the most important factor although lumpiness may affect smaller producers it represents an inconsequential detail for larger traders in given years interest income cost resulting from futures margin requirements may reach important absolute amounts relative to size of basis and price changes this factor fails to attain a magnitude of practical significance

debt deleveraging and the liquidity trap a fisher minsky koo approach in this paper we present a simple new keynesian style model of debt driven slumps that is situations in which an overhang of debt on the part of some agents who are forced into rapid deleveraging is depressing aggregate demand making some agents debt constrained is a surprisingly powerful assumption fisherian debt deflation the possibility of a liquidity trap the paradox of thrift a keynesiantype multiplier and a rationale for expansionary fiscal policy all emerge naturally from the model we argue that this approach sheds considerable light both on current economic difficulties and on historical episodes including japan s lost decade now in its 18th year and the great depression itself

human capital producer education programs and the adoption of forward pricing methods using a sample of 509 kansas producers we evaluate factors affecting adoption of forward pricing methods we focus on producers human capital accumulation and its effect on adoption of forward pricing techniques probit models are employed to evaluate producers participation in educational programs and their forward pricing adoption decisions tobit models are employed to evaluate individual levels of adoption of these techniques in the marketing of wheat corn grain sorghum soybeans and cattle

sovereign debt relief and its aftermath this paper studies sovereign debt relief in a long term perspective we quantify the relief achieved through default and restructuring in two distinct samples 1920 1939 focusing on the defaults on official government to government debt in advanced economies after world war i and 1978 2010 focusing on emerging market debt crises with private external creditors debt relief was substantial in both eras averaging 21 of gdp in the 1930s and 16 of gdp in recent decades we then analyze the aftermath of debt relief and conduct a difference in differences analysis around the synchronous war debt defaults of 1934 and the baker and brady initiatives of the 1980s 1990s the economic landscape of debtor countries improves signicantly after debt relief operations but only if these involve debt write offs softer forms of debt relief such as maturity extensions and interest rate reductions are not generally followed by higher economic growth or improved credit ratings jel e6 f3 n0 and h6

bounds on elasticities with optimization frictions a synthesis of micro and macro evidence on labor supply how can price elasticities be identified when agents face optimization frictions such as adjustment costs or inattention i derive bounds on structural price elasticities that are a function of the observed effect of a price change on demand the size of the price change and the degree of frictions the degree of frictions is measured by the utility losses agents tolerate to deviate from the frictionless optimum the bounds imply that frictions affect intensive margin elasticities much more than extensive margin elasticities i apply these bounds to the literature on labor supply the utility costs of ignoring the tax changes used to identify intensive margin labor supply elasticities are typically less than 1 of earnings as a result small frictions can explain the differences between micro and macro elasticities extensive and intensive margin elasticities and other disparate findings pooling estimates from existing studies i estimate a hicksian labor supply elasticity of 0 33 on the intensive margin and 0 25 on the extensive margin after accounting for frictions

institutional ownership of stock and dimensions of corporate social performance an empirical examination collectively institutions own an increasing proportion of outstanding corporate equities as an emergent force in shaping corporate america the linkages between institutional ownership and corporate social performance csp require empirical examination not only do corporate policy makers need to know those areas where social performance may lure or inhibit capital infusions lawmakers also need a better understanding of the social forces guiding corporate policy as anticipated this study found a positive relationship between the amount of institutional ownership of corporate stock and a company s social responsiveness as measured by the representation of women on its board of directors however no statistically significant relationship with social responsibility as measured by charitable giving was found the exemplar of social issues management compliance with the sullivan principles showed an unexpected negative relationship with the level of institutional ownership

theory of the firm with joint price and output risk and a forward market expected utility maximizing farmers facing just price risk or both price risk and quantity risk behave similarly in the absence of a forward market if forward contracting is possible that is not true because variation in the commodity price affects a farmer s wealth through the value of his futures position the value of his output and through the covariance between price and output this covariance affects a farmer s optimal scale of production his optimal forward position and the interrelationship between the scale of production and forward trading

a critical evaluation of etzioni s socioeconomic theory implications for the field of business ethics given the pervasive influence of neoclassical economic theory on the field of business the opposition of the standard economists to the inclusion of moral factors in economic decisions provides an intellectual resistance to the ideas of many business ethicists etzioni 1988 offers a theoretical alternative to the neoclassical model an alternative that includes a moral dimension this article 1 highlights the differences between etzioni s proposed model and the neoclassical economic paradigm 2 describes and critically evaluates etzioni s proposed theory in view of his objective of synthesizing the neoclassical paradigm with a duty based morality and 3 discusses the implications of etzioni s proposed paradigm for the field of business ethics

debt relief and debtor outcomes measuring the effects of consumer bankruptcy protection consumer bankruptcy is one of the largest social insurance programs in the united states but little is known about its impact on debtors we use 500 000 bankruptcy filings matched to administrative tax and foreclosure data to estimate the impact of chapter 13 bankruptcy protection on subsequent outcomes exploiting the random assignment of bankruptcy filings to judges we find that chapter 13 protection increases annual earnings by 5 562 decreases five year mortality by 1 2 percentage points and decreases five year foreclosure rates by 19 1 percentage points these results come primarily from the deterioration of outcomes among dismissed filers not gains by granted filers jel d14 i12 j22 j31 k35

bankruptcy as implicit health insurance this paper examines the implicit health insurance that households receive from the ability to declare bankruptcy exploiting multiple sources of variation in asset exemption law i show that uninsured households with a greater financial cost of bankruptcy make higher out of pocket medical payments conditional on the amount of care received in turn i find that households with greater wealth at risk are more likely to hold health insurance the implicit insurance from bankruptcy distorts the insurance coverage decision using a microsimulation model i calculate that the optimal pigovian penalties are three quarters as large as the average penalties under the affordable care act

optimal dynamic hedging in unbiased futures markets a discrete time dynamic hedging problem is solved under expected utility maximization and basis risk without imposing a particular parametric form for utility nor assuming normally distributed cash and futures prices the solution is valid for any increasing and strictly concave utility function and for quite general specifications of the joint distribution of cash and futures prices this generality is achieved by restricting the futures market to be unbiased and requiring that the size of the cash position be nonstochastic the dynamic hedging rule can be estimated empirically using similar methods to those used to estimate static hedge ratios

incarceration length employment and earnings this paper estimates effects of increases in incarceration length on employment and earnings prospects of individuals after their release from prison i utilize a variety of research designs including controlling for observable factors and using instrumental variables for incarceration length based on randomly assigned judges with different sentencing propensities the results show no consistent evidence of adverse labor market consequences of longer incarceration length using any of the analytical methods in either the state system in florida or the federal system in california

ethical aspects of investor behavior the neoclassical paradigm assumes that shareholders utility is solely a function of their wealth and prescribes that management should act in a manner consistent with share price maximization the stakeholder view also assumes that shareholders utility derives from wealth but prescribes that managers must balance the shareholder wealth maximization objective against the rights of other constituencies thus while neoclassicists and stakeholder theorists have different prescriptives for management behavior their definitions of the shareholders interest are consistent shareholders are self interested economic agents whose utility is best served by share price maximization however if shareholders are other interested and attack importance to ethical and moral values then both the neoclassical and stakeholder view derive from invalid assumptions in this paper i present evidence that much shareholder behavior is ethically motivated as a result the basis for both the neoclassical and the stakeholder view are weakened

prospect theory and risk preferences of oregon seed producers prospect theory relates risk preference classifications to gains and losses from a reference income level this study applies prospect theory to reinterpret historical studies of risk preferences of oregon grass seed growers a significant relationship between changes in classifications of preferences and changes in income was found results indicated that those who lost income were concentrated in the category of changing to risk preferrers income changes calculated from crop combinations were also found to be correlated in a theoretically correct pattern with positive measures of risk from crop enterprises the research therefore is consistent with further applications of prospect theory to farm management

welfare implications of the bankruptcy reform act of 1999 abstract in recent years personal bankruptcy has become an important issue to consumers creditors and legislators alike over 40 billion dollars of unsecured debt were discharged in 1998 by 1 44 million households these losses have led legislators to propose a variety of changes in bankruptcy law the most important and recent of which is the bankruptcy reform act of 1999 ba99 i develop a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of personal bankruptcy to investigate the trade off between the consumption smoothing role of bankruptcy and the interest rate and deadweight costs it imposes i find that stringent means tests would reduce filing rates only slightly and would have only modest welfare consequences on the other hand the elimination of bankruptcy altogether is found to have substantial benefits this result is robust to income shock persistence and to stringency in the application of means tests

consumer bankruptcy a fresh start consumer bankruptcy provides partial insurance against bad luck but by driving up interest rates makes life cycle smoothing more difficult we argue that to assess this trade off one needs a quantitative model of consumer bankruptcy with three key features life cycle component idiosyncratic earnings uncertainty and expense uncertainty exogenous negative shocks to household balance sheets we find that transitory and persistent earnings shocks have very different implications for evaluating bankruptcy rules more persistent shocks make the bankruptcy option more desirable larger transitory shocks have the opposite effect our findings suggest the current us bankruptcy system may be desirable for reasonable parameter values jel d14 d91 k35

who gets credit after bankruptcy and why an information channel abstract conventional wisdom holds that individuals find it difficult to obtain new credit post bankruptcy using credit bureau data we test this hypothesis and show that more than 90 of bankrupt individuals receive credit shortly after filing individuals with good credit history prior to filing have reduced credit availability after bankruptcy while those with ex ante low credit quality receive more credit we show that credit supplied to low quality individuals is severely curtailed during the financial crisis we also find that the default probability on new debt increases after bankruptcy especially among individuals with high ex ante credit score these findings are consistent with an information channel in which bankruptcy reveals new information about a borrower s credit quality

split sample instrumental variables estimates of the return to schooling this article reevaluates recent instrumental variables iv estimates of the returns to schooling in light of the fact that two stage least squares is biased in the same direction as ordinary least squares ols even in very large samples we propose a split sample instrumental variables ssiv estimator that is not biased toward ols ssiv uses one half of a sample to estimate parameters of the first stage equation estimated first stage parameters are then used to construct fitted values and second stage parameter estimates in the other half sample ssiv is biased toward 0 but this bias can be corrected the splt sample estimators confirm and reinforce some previous findings on the returns to schooling but fail to confirm others

juvenile incarceration human capital and future crime evidence from randomly assigned judges over 130 000 juveniles are detained in the united states each year with 70 000 in detention on any given day yet little is known about whether such a penalty deters future crime or interrupts social and human capital formation in a way that increases the likelihood of later criminal behavior this article uses the incarceration tendency of randomly assigned judges as an instrumental variable to estimate causal effects of juvenile incarceration on high school completion and adult recidivism estimates based on over 35 000 juvenile offenders over a 10 year period from a large urban county in the united states suggest that juvenile incarceration results in substantially lower high school completion rates and higher adult incarceration rates including for violent crimes in an attempt to understand the large effects we found that incarceration for this population could be very disruptive greatly reducing the likelihood of ever returning to school and for those who do return significantly increasing the likelihood of being classified as having an emotional or behavioral disorder jel codes k140 i210

state intervention in the market for corporate control abstract this study investigates the impact of pennsylvania senate bill 1310 on the share prices of pennsylvania corporations considered the most severe of the second generation antitakeover laws the statute limits the ability of shareholders to challenge management through the proxy process and eliminates the traditional fiduciary obligation of directors to promote shareholders interests we find that pa sb1310 significantly decreased share values and estimate the loss to shareholders of pennsylvania firms at 4 billion however firms with antitakeover charter amendments already in place were less affected and firms that exempted themselves from pa sb1310 recovered a portion of shareholders wealth

securitization and distressed loan renegotiation evidence from the subprime mortgage crisis abstract we examine whether securitization impacts renegotiation decisions of loan servicers focusing on their decision to foreclose a delinquent loan conditional on a loan becoming seriously delinquent we find a significantly lower foreclosure rate associated with bank held loans when compared to similar securitized loans across various specifications and origination vintages the foreclosure rate of delinquent bank held loans is 3 to 7 lower in absolute terms 13 to 32 in relative terms there is a substantial heterogeneity in these effects with large effects among borrowers with better credit quality and small effects among lower quality borrowers a quasi experiment that exploits a plausibly exogenous variation in securitization status of a delinquent loan confirms these results

performance pricing in bank debt contracts abstract performance pricing links bank debt interest rate spreads to a borrower s performance via two options interest decreasing performance pricing reduces spreads if credit quality improves it is more common when prepayment is more likely or costly and when adverse selection costs are higher and is less common when multiple performance measures better predict credit quality interest increasing performance pricing increases spreads if credit quality deteriorates it is more common when lenders reduce interest rates to add this provision when downgrades are more likely and when moral hazard costs are higher we find lower spreads for contracts with interest increasing performance pricing

two step econometric estimation of farm characteristics affecting marketing contract decisions we examine how farm characteristics affect marketing contract decisions we relax the restrictive assumptions of tobit poisson and multinomial logit models and consider the quantity frequency and contract type decisions conditional on rather than jointly with the contract adoption decision in contrast to earlier studies on marketing contract decisions we estimate a two step econometric model using agricultural resource management study data and find that farm characteristics affecting decisions to adopt marketing contracts differ from those affecting decisions regarding quantity frequency and contract type

the determinants of attitudes towards strategic default on mortgages we use survey data to measure households propensity to default on mortgages even if they can afford to pay them strategic default when the value of the mortgage exceeds the value of the house the willingness to default increases in both the absolute and the relative size of the home equity shortfall our evidence suggests that this willingness is affected by both pecuniary and non pecuniary factors such as views about fairness and morality we also find that exposure to other people who strategically defaulted increases the propensity to default strategically because it conveys information about the probability of being sued

voting power in the proxy process abstract the likelihood that a firm will enact a management sponsored antitakeover charter amendment depends on ownership structure this implies that the adoption of antitakeover amendments may be anticipated then announcement returns provide a biased estimate of wealth effects an estimator that corrects for the bias induced by anticipation indicates that the enactment of an antitakeover amendment is associated with a statistically significant decrease in shareholder wealth the voting power of employee stock ownership plans and the chief executive officer plays a prominent role in determining whether a firm will adopt this type of takeover defense

accounting information in financial contracting the incomplete contract theory perspective this paper reviews theoretical and empirical work on financial contracting that is relevant to accounting researchers its primary objective is to discuss how the use of accounting information in contracts enhances contracting efficiency and to suggest avenues for future research we argue that incomplete contract theory broadens our understanding of both the role accounting information plays in contracting and the mechanisms through which efficiency gains are achieved by discussing its rich theoretical implications we expect incomplete contract theory to prove useful in motivating future research and in offering directions to advance our knowledge of how accounting information affects contract efficiency

patents and cumulative innovation causal evidence from the courts cumulative innovation is central to economic growth do patent rights facilitate or impede such follow on innovation this paper studies the effect of removing patent protection through court invalidation on the subsequent research related to the focal patent as measured by later citations we exploit random allocation of judges at the u s court of appeal for the federal circuit to control for the endogeneity of patent invalidation we find that patent invalidation leads to a 50 percent increase in subsequent citations to the focal patent on average but the impact is highly heterogeneous patent rights appear to block follow on innovation only in the technology fields of computers electronics and medical instruments moreover the effect is entirely driven by invalidation of patents owned by large patentees that triggers entry of small innovators suggesting that patents may impede the democratization of innovation

the health and earnings of rejected disability insurance applicants applicants for social security disability benefits who fail to pass the medical screening form a natural control group for beneficiaries data drawn from the 1972 and 1978 surveys of the disabled done for the social security administration show that fewer than 50 percent of rejected male applicants work typical earnings of those that do are less than 59 percent of median earnings for other men their age these data cast doubt on recent econometric work that suggests that the disincentive effects of the social security disability program have been substantial copyright 1989 by american economic association

the effect of poison pill securities on shareholder wealth abstract this paper examines empirical evidence about the effect of poison pill takeover defenses on shareholder wealth i find evidence that announcements of the most restrictive forms of the pill defense are associated with stock price declines also the most restrictive forms of the pill defense are associated with abnormally high rates of defeat of unsolicited tender offers although this evidence is consistent with managerial entrenchment the evidence implies that on average poison pill defenses have seemingly had only a modest effect on firm valuation

recent developments in consumer credit and default literature consumer credit and default literature this survey discusses recent contributions to the quantitative literature on unsecured consumer debt and default and some ongoing challenges for the literature key topics include the sources of the rise in personal bankruptcies the importance of asymmetric information and the effects of developments in information technologies on consumer credit markets delinquency and informal bankruptcy debt collection and restructuring of distressed debt the cyclical behavior of consumer debt and default and the insurance role of household debt implications for welfare analysis and policy design are discussed several theoretical contributions and approaches to modeling the consumer credit markets are also highlighted

the rise in student loan defaults abstract we examine the rise in student loan defaults in the great recession by linking administrative student loan data at the individual borrower level to student loan borrowers individual tax records a blinder oaxaca style decomposition shows that shifts in the composition of student loan borrowers and the massive collapse in home prices during the great recession can each account for approximately 30 of the rise in student loan defaults falling home prices affect student loan defaults by impairing individuals labor earnings especially for low income jobs by contrast when comparing the default sensitivities of homeowners and renters we find no evidence that falling home prices affect student loan defaults through a home equity based liquidity channel the income based repayment ibr program introduced by the federal government in the wake of the great recession reduced both student loan defaults and their sensitivity to home price fluctuations thus providing student loan borrowers with valuable insurance against negative shocks

opportunistic underinvestment in debt renegotiation and capital structure abstract this paper models debt renegotiation as a bargaining game between debtholders and shareholder oriented management in which management credibly threatens to run down firm assets to force concessions from the creditors creditors anticipate this opportunistic behavior by management creating an upper bound on debt capacity that is less than the value of the firm if an advantage to debt is introduced such as favorable tax treatment an interior optimal capital structure obtains even in the absence of realized bankruptcy costs our model also explains variations in debt equity ratios and the use of certain puzzling debt covenants

using cumulative prospect theory to explain anomalous crop insurance coverage choice farmers decisions about how much crop insurance to buy are not generally consistent with expected utility maximization taking into account both marginal risk benefits and marginal subsidy effects suggests that most farmers have chosen lower coverage levels than would be predicted by standard models by modeling financial outcomes as gains and losses cumulative prospect theory offers an alternative framework to perhaps better understand farmers purchase decisions the role of the reference point that defines outcomes as either a gain or a loss the degree of loss aversion curvature of the value function and the probability weighting function in determining optimal crop insurance coverage levels are explored for three representative farms calibrated to 2009 conditions loss aversion and how crop insurance is framed through choice of the reference point are shown to be the key factors that determine whether predictions from prospect theory are consistent with observed crop insurance coverage choices when crop insurance is framed as a tool to manage farm risk then optimal choices under prospect theory are not consistent with observed choices if crop insurance is framed as a stand alone investment where a loss is felt if the indemnity received is less than the premium paid then prospect theory can generate optimal coverage level choices that are largely consistent with observed decisions this result is shown to be robust to changes in parameterizations as long as loss aversion is maintained and if curvature of the value function is accompanied by decision weights that overweight low probability outcomes

consumer bankruptcy and financial health this paper estimates the effect of chapter 13 bankruptcy protection on financial health using a new data set linking bankruptcy filings to credit bureau records our empirical strategy uses the leniency of randomly assigned judges as an instrument for chapter 13 protection we find that chapter 13 protection decreases an index measuring adverse financial events such as civil judgments and repossessions by 0 323 standard deviations and increases the probability of being a homeowner by 13 2 percentage points chapter 13 protection has little impact on open unsecured debt but decreases the amount of debt in collections by 1 333

household borrowing after personal bankruptcy a large body of literature has examined factors leading to filing for personal bankruptcy but little is known about household borrowing after bankruptcy this paper augments the existing literature with a comprehensive analysis of postbankruptcy borrowing using data from the survey of consumer finances we find that filers generally have more limited access to unsecured credit but borrow more secured debt after bankruptcy than comparable households that have never filed for bankruptcy filers also pay higher interest rates on all types of debt in addition as more time passes after filing credit access and borrowing costs improve however filers remain more prone than comparable nonfilers to experience financial distress accumulate less wealth and use expensive credit sources like payday loans even more than 10 years after filing

does disability insurance receipt discourage work using examiner assignment to estimate causal effects of ssdi receipt abstract we present the first causal estimates of the effect of social security disability insurance benefit receipt on labor supply using all program applicants we use administrative data to matc

arm breaking consumer credit and personal bankruptcy the consumer credit transaction is analyzed as a contract which provides insurance as well as present consumption for the borrower creditors remedies such as arm breaking are shown to facilitate provision of insurance forgiveness of debts when lenders cannot monitor outcomes alternatively if outcomes are observable but lenders do not ex ante know the risk associated with each borrower the market may generate an excessive amount of arm breaking and agreements to forgo discharge following bankruptcy as low risk borrowers signal their characteristics suggesting that government limitations on such provisions might be efficient the secured credit transaction is shown to be a complex contract which attempts to provide efficient repayment seller incentives for performance and mitigation following default and insurance for the borrower garnishment and discharge of debts following bankruptcy are also considered

the household bankruptcy decision personal bankruptcy filings have risen from 0 3 percent of households per year in 1984 to around 1 35 percent in 1998 and 1999 transforming bankruptcy from a rare occurrence to a routine event lenders lost about 39 billion in 1998 due to personal bankruptcy filings but economists have little understanding of why households file for bankruptcy or why filings have increased so rapidly until very recently studying the household bankruptcy decision was very difficult because no household level data set existed that included information on bankruptcy filings in this paper we use new data from the panel study of income dynamics which includes information on bankruptcy filings to estimate a model of households bankruptcy decisions we find support for the strategic model of bankruptcy which predicts that households are more likely to file when their financial benefit from filing is higher our model predicts that an increase of 1 000 in households financial benefit from bankruptcy would result in a 7 percent increase in the number of bankruptcy filings our model also predicts that if the 1997 national bankruptcy review commission s proposed changes in bankruptcy exemption levels were implemented there would be a 16 percent increase in the number of bankruptcy filings each year but if the 100 000 cap on homestead exemptions recently passed by the u s senate were adopted our model predicts that there would be only a negligible effect on the number of filings we find little support for the nonstrategic model of bankruptcy which predicts that households file when adverse events occur which reduce their ability to repay finally controlling for state and time fixed effects our model shows that households are more likely to file for bankruptcy if they live in districts with higher aggregate filing rates

shift share designs theory and inference we study inference in shift share regression designs such as when a regional outcome is regressed on a weighted average of sectoral shocks using regional sector shares as weights we conduct a placebo exercise in which we estimate the effect of a shift share regressor constructed with randomly generated sectoral shocks on actual labor market outcomes across u s commuting zones tests based on commonly used standard errors with 5 nominal significance level reject the null of no effect in up to 55 of the placebo samples we use a stylized economic model to show that this overrejection problem arises because regression residuals are correlated across regions with similar sectoral shares independent of their geographic location we derive novel inference methods that are valid under arbitrary cross regional correlation in the regression residuals we show using popular applications of shift share designs that our methods may lead to substantially wider confidence intervals in practice

futures hedging under price basis and production risk we consider the hedging problem of a firm that has three sources of risk price basis and yield uncertainty an exact solution for the optimal futures hedge is derived under the assumption that the three random variables are jointly normally distributed and that utility is of the cara type unlike the mean variance approximation applied in previous research we show that the optimal hedge does depend on risk attitudes even when the agent perceives the futures price as being unbiased the theoretical results are applied empirically to the problem of hedging soybean production in iowa the exact solution relying on cara and normality is compared with numerical solutions under lognormal distributions and crra utility

identification of endogenous social effects the reflection problem this paper examines the reflection problem that arises when a researcher observing the distribution of behaviour in a population tries to infer whether the average behaviour in some group influences the behaviour of the individuals that comprise the group it is found that inference is not possible unless the researcher has prior information specifying the compisition of reference groups if this information is available the prospects for inference depend critically on the population relationship between the variables defining reference groups and those directly affecting outcomes inference is difficult to implossible if these variables are functionally dependent or are statistically independent the prospects are better if the variables defining reference groups and those directly affecting outcomes are moderately related in the population

why don t lenders renegotiate more home mortgages redefaults self cures and securitization we document the fact that servicers have been reluctant to renegotiate mortgages since the foreclosure crisis started in 2007 having performed payment reducing modifications on only about 3 percent of seriously delinquent loans we show that this reluctance does not result from securitization servicers renegotiate similarly small fractions of loans that they hold in their portfolios our results are robust to different definitions of renegotiation including the one most likely to be affected by securitization and to different definitions of delinquency our results are strongest in subsamples in which unobserved heterogeneity between portfolio and securitized loans is likely to be small and for subprime loans we use a theoretical model to show that redefault risk the possibility that a borrower will still default despite costly renegotiation and self cure risk the possibility that a seriously delinquent borrower will become current without renegotiation make renegotiation unattractive to investors

profit margin hedging some extension economists and others recommend profit margin hedging as a way to choose the timing of crop sales however the theory behind this strategy recommendation is not well developed this article determines the producer s utility function and price processes where profit margin hedging is optimal profit margin hedging is shown to be an optimal strategy under a highly restricted target utility function even in an efficient market profit margin hedging is profitable if prices are mean reverting copyright 2010 oxford university press

formation and adaptation of reference prices in grain marketing an experimental study this study aimed to explore how producers reference prices are formed and adapt over time and how they affect marketing decisions results indicate that producers focus on three major variables to form their reference prices the current market price the highest price to date and their expectation about price behavior further they update their reference prices during the marketing season mainly in response to changes in current market prices their own expectations about price behavior and the general price trend finally our findings suggest that producers marketing decisions are based on the spread between current market price and reference price the general market trend and price expectation

u s consumer bankruptcy choice the importance of general equilibrium effects abstract we study the implications of u s personal bankruptcy rules for resource allocation and welfare our analysis shows that general equilibrium considerations along with bankruptcy chapter choice and production matter crucially for the effects of policy reform contrary to previous work we find that completely eliminating bankruptcy provisions causes significant declines in output and welfare by reducing capital formation and labor input furthermore subjecting chapter 7 filers to means testing as suggested by recent legislative proposals would not improve upon current bankruptcy provisions and at best leave aggregate filings output and welfare unchanged however we do find that an alternative tightening of chapter 7 in the form of lower asset exemptions can increase economic efficiency

mortgage modification and strategic behavior evidence from a legal settlement with countrywide abstract we investigate whether homeowners respond strategically to news of mortgage modification programs we exploit plausibly exogenous variation in modification policy induced by settlement of us state government lawsuits against countrywide financial corporation which agreed to offer modifications to seriously delinquent borrowers using a difference in differences framework we find that countrywide s monthly delinquency rate increased more than 0 54 percentage points a 10 percent relative increase immediately after the settlement s announcement the estimated increase in default rates is largest among borrowers least likely to default otherwise these results suggest that strategic behavior should be an important consideration in designing mortgage modification programs jel d14 g21 k22 r31

the effect of pre emptive right amendments on shareholder wealth abstract pre emptive rights allow existing shareholders to purchase a new offering of shares before the general public this paper investigates the effect on shareholder wealth of removing pre emptive rights from corporate charters two hypotheses are constrasted 1 shareholder wealth maximization suggests that management uses this extra degree of freedom to pick the least cost method for raising new equity hence the amendment increases shareholder wealth 2 management welfare maximization holds that management will use the passage of the amendment to maximize their own welfare sometimes to the detriment of shareholders hence the amendment decreases shareholder wealth the evidence indicates that the amendment decreases shareholder wealth

the economic effects of a borrower bailout evidence from an emerging market this paper studies the credit market implications and real effects of one the largest borrower bailout programs in history enacted by the government of india against the backdrop of the 2008 2009 financial crisis the study finds that the stimulus program had no effect on productivity wages or consumption but led to significant changes in credit allocation and an increase in defaults post program loan performance declines faster in districts with greater exposure to the program an effect that is not driven by greater risk taking of banks loan defaults become significantly more sensitive to the electoral cycle after the program suggesting the anticipation of future credit market interventions as an important channel through which moral hazard in loan repayment is intensified

mistake 37 the effect of previously encountered prices on current housing demand based on contrast effects studies from psychology we predicted that movers arriving from more expensive cities would rent pricier apartments than those arriving from cheaper cities we also predicted that as people stayed in their new city they would get used to the new prices and would readjust their housing expenditures countering the initial impact of previous prices we found support for both predictions in a sample of 928 movers from the psid alternative explanations based on unobserved wealth and taste and on imperfect information are ruled out

hedgers funds and small speculators in the energy futures markets an analysis of the cftc s commitments of traders reports the commodity futures trading commission cftc s commitments of traders cot data are examined for crude oil unleaded gasoline heating oil and natural gas futures contracts the collection procedures for the cot data are first examined followed by granger causality tests to determine if relationships between trader positions and market prices exist a positive correlation between returns and positions held by noncommercial traders and a negative correlation between commercial positions and market returns are found furthermore positive returns result in an increase in noncommercial net positions in the following week whereas the net long positions held by commercial hedgers decline following price increases however traders net positions do not lead market returns in general

default and renegotiation a dynamic model of debt we analyze the role of debt in persuading an entrepreneur to pay out cash e ows rather than to divertthem in the e rstpartof the paper we study the optimal debt contract specie cally the trade off between the size of the loan and the repayment under the assumption that some debt contract is optimal in the second part we consider a more general class of nondebt contracts and derive sufficient conditions for debt to be optimal among these