dynamic interbank network analysis using latent space models longitudinal network data are increasingly available allowing researchers to model how networks evolve over time and to make inference on their dependence structure in this paper a dynamic latent space approach is used to model directed networks of monthly interbank exposures in this model each node has an unobserved temporal trajectory in a low dimensional euclidean space model parameters and latent banks positions are estimated within a bayesian framework we apply this methodology to analyze two different datasets the unsecured and the secured repo interbank lending networks we show that the model that incorporates a latent space performs much better than the model in which the probability of a tie depends only on observed characteristics the latent space model is able to capture some features of the dyadic data such as transitivity that the model without a latent space is not able to

geographic reallocation and unemployment during the great recession the role of the housing bust abstract we provide a spatial general equilibrium model of migration and job searching to study the role the housing bust played in mobility rates and labor market outcomes we estimate the parameters governing the migration decisions of households using data on state level migration and labor market patterns from 1991 to 2007 and use the estimated model to characterize the effects of the housing market collapse on labor market outcomes our analysis suggests that the housing bust is responsible for 12 of the increase in unemployment as it reduces workers reallocation and forces more homeowners to look for jobs in areas with lower job finding rates

a note on market power in itq fisheries abstract individual transferable quotas itqs in fisheries are analogous to transferable pollution permits in environmental policy however they are different in that the right to produce is for the final product the fish whereas pollution permits are for a non market joint product i e sulfur dioxide of the good produced for sale in both cases the actual economic efficiency effects of creating the property rights depend upon the workings of the market for both the final product and the rights there has been considerable work on market failures for pollution permits and this paper extends the analysis to itqs it is shown that the difference between pollution permits and itqs can change the type and occurrence of failure in the market for the final product but it does not affect the potential for failure in the market for permits

industrialization and consolidation in the u s food sector implications for competition and welfare good sources for information on recent developments in food market structure include barkema drabenstott and welch u s department of agriculture 1996b and rogers my objective is not to add to this literature but rather to consider what we have learned as a profession about the rapid consolidation in food processing and distribution what are its implications for market power economic efficiency and the distribution of economic welfare among producers consumers and marketers

imperfect competition functional forms and the size and distribution of research benefits abstract the effects of functional forms for supply and demand on the size and distribution of the returns to research are examined under a range of forms of competition under perfect competition the choice of functional form is relatively unimportant for the estimation of research benefits under imperfect competition the combination of the choice of functional forms for supply and demand and the nature of the research induced supply shift can have profound implications for the results functional form plays a much more important role than in the competitive model the most important contrast is between the constant elasticity model and the linear model along with various cases of a generalized linear model these findings are illustrated using a combination of analytical results and numerical simulations

the pandemic economic crisis precautionary behavior and mobility constraints an application of the dynamic disequilibrium model with randomness this article analyzes the economic impact of the pandemic providing insights into the consequences of alternative policies our framework focuses on three key features i covid 19 is a sectoral shock of unknown depth and duration affecting some sectors and technologies more than others ii there are constraints in shifting resources across sectors and iii there is a high level of uncertainty about the disease and its economic aftermath inducing a high level of precautionary behavior by some agents and leading to others facing more severe credit constraints because of macroeconomic externalities precautionary behavior exacerbates the downturn and even sectors where covid 19 does not directly affect consumption or production may face unemployment multipliers associated with different government expenditure programs differ markedly the article describes policies that can mitigate precautionary behavior leading to reduced unemployment greater wage flexibility may lead to increased unemployment the precautionary behavior is the antithesis of equilibrium behavior suggesting that standard equilibrium approaches may not provide the appropriate framework for analyzing the pandemic individuals know that they don t know the future that existing and newly made contracts and plans may be broken and that they need to be able to respond to these unknowable contingencies

explaining the decline in the u s employment to population ratio a review of the evidence this paper first documents trends in employment rates and then reviews what is known about the various factors that have been proposed to explain the decline in the overall employment to population ratio between 1999 and 2018 population aging has had a large effect on the overall employment rate over this period but within age group declines in employment among young and prime age adults also have played a central role among the factors with effects that we can quantify based on existing evidence labor demand factors in particular increased import competition from china and the penetration of robots into the labor market are the most important drivers of observed within group declines in employment labor supply factors most notably increased participation in disability insurance programs have played a less important but not inconsequential role increases in the real value of state minimum wages and in the share of individuals with prison records also have contributed modestly to the decline in the aggregate employment rate in addition to the factors whose effects we roughly quantify we identify a set of potentially important factors about which the evidence does not yet allow us to draw clear conclusions these include the challenges associated with arranging child care improvements in leisure technology changing social norms increased use of opioids the growth in occupational licensing and declining labor market fluidity our evidence driven ranking of factors should be useful for guiding future discussions about the sources of decline in the aggregate employment to population ratio and consequently the likely efficacy of alternative policy approaches to increasing employment rates

employment hysteresis from the great recession this paper uses us local areas as a laboratory to test for long term impacts of the great recession in administrative longitudinal data i estimate that exposure to a 1 percentage point larger 200

the econometrics of markets with quantity controls this paper presents econometric methods for single markets with quantity controls or quotas a theory of quotas based on disequilibrium bargaining nations is outlined maximum likelihood methods are described for these theories the methods are applied to the australian tobacco leaf market it is argued that cigarette manufacturers gain slightly more from bargaining proces than tobacco growers

instrument choice in a fishery abstract this paper considers the choice of regulatory instruments in a fishery fishing captains consumers and input suppliers each attempt to influence the regulator s choice of instruments the regulator chooses among instruments such as input restrictions entry restrictions or individual transferable quotas itqs regulatory instruments that result in zero fishery rents can only occur if the regulator places an extraordinary weight on the welfare of input suppliers relative to fishing captains and consumers indeed heterogeneity of fishing captains is neither necessary nor sufficient to obtain regulations that fail to generate fishery rents

reconsidering the initial allocation of itqs the search for a pareto safe allocation between fishing and processing sectors advancement of rights based fishing is stymied by industry and congressional concern over distributional issues arising out of traditional itq design this paper examines the existence and policy feasibility of two alternative initial allocations intended to leave the two principal industry participants the fishers and processors no worse off while maximizing efficiency market structure is shown to be a critical consideration not only to avoid unintended wealth redistribution but also to achieve efficiency

long term impacts of childhood medicaid expansions on outcomes in adulthood we use administrative data from the internal revenue service to examine long term impacts of childhood medicaid eligibility expansions on outcomes in adulthood at each age from 19 to 28 greater medicaid eligibility increases college enrolment and decreases fertility especially through age 21 starting at age 23 females have higher contemporaneous wage income although male increases are imprecise together both genders have lower mortality these adults collect less from the earned income tax credit and pay more in taxes cumulatively from ages 19 to 28 at a 3 discount rate the federal government recoups 58 cents of each dollar of its investment in childhood medicaid

property rights and entrepreneurial income in commercial fisheries abstract entrepreneurs who own and operate fishing vessels oppose conversion of open access fisheries to sole ownership and oppose pigouvian taxes on landings because those policies reduce their incomes government buybacks of quotas and self financed quota reductions increase their incomes under specified conditions with transferable quotas optimal harvesting is a lindahl equilibrium and a sequence of elections will converge on the lindahl equilibrium

estimating the degree of market power in the beef packing industry a technique for assessing the degree of monopoly power developed by appelbaum 1979 1982 is extended here to permit measurement of monopsony power as well data from the u s beef packing industry are examined the results reveal small but statistically significant monopoly monopsony price distortions in slaughter cattle and wholesale beef markets but in spite of a recent trend toward heightened concentration in the industry give no indication that performance has become appreciably less competitive of late this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

the effects of itq management on fishermen s welfare when the processing sector is imperfectly competitive in this paper we use a general model of imperfect competition to predict welfare changes within an open access fishery after it transitions to individual transferable quota itq management although related research has explored the effects of market power in the harvesting sector on itq performance none has considered the implications of an imperfectly competitive processing sector addressing this question we find that although fishermen should expect to gain from itqs under perfect competition they may suffer welfare losses if the processing sector is imperfectly competitive

markets and rent dissipation in regulated open access fisheries abstract using a model of regulated open access resource use with markets we illustrate the potential complexity of interactions between markets product quality excess effort and regulatory behavior in fisheries our model assumes two product types one of which is processed and storable the model describes the equilibrium that results when effort responds to open access incentives and when regulators respond to effort growth by mitigating its potential harmful effects on biomass safety we use numerical simulations to demonstrate a mechanism by which market growth leads to the diversion of raw inputs into the inherently inferior market the result is a scenario in which rents are dissipated not only because excessive inputs raise costs but also because inferior product types reduce revenues we conclude with an illustrative decomposition of rent gains into revenue and cost savings gains from rationalizing a hypothetical fishery demonstrating the potential significance of market side rents

locate your nearest exit mass layoffs and local labor market response large shocks to local labor markets can cause long lasting changes to employment unemployment and the local labor force this study examines the relationship between mass layoffs and the long run

the effects on welfare of the imposition of individual transferable quotas on a heterogeneous fishing fleet abstract this paper examines the determination of effort levels the rental price of quotas and the number of participants in a fishery managed with a total allowable catch and individual transferable quotas how these variables change is determined for three phases of the management process potential participants in the fishery are assumed to be heterogeneous in their catching capabilities so that almost all active fishers earn positive net profits from fishing activities it is shown that these quasirents are reduced during any of the management phases considered here the impact of free allocations of permanent quota rights on fishers welfare is also considered this may increase the welfare of all fishers if the allocation is based on catch history however an example is provided where the welfare of some highliners is reduced when the allocation is based on effort history

contracting problems and regulation the case of the fishery the inefficiencies of common property fisheries are of continuing concern to economists the early work by scott gordon 1954 and anthony scott 1955 outlined the problem and later studies by james crutchfield and giulio pontecorvo 1969 and frederick bell 1972 provided empirical estimates of the losses that result those studies were followed by the dynamic models of colin clark 1976 and james quirk and vernon smith 1970 of optimal harvest rates and the use of corrective taxes or quotas to achieve them but in spite of a large and growing literature and the persuasiveness of the outlined efficiency criteria most fisheries retain common property aspects with overcapitalization and excessive labor input why those conditions persist and the failure of the regulatory response to them are the issues addressed in this paper we examine a number of fisheries but focus on the texas shrimp industry which is one of the nation s most valuable fisheries for a single species and which shares the common property characteristics observed elsewhere it is considered overcapitalized and catch per unit of effort is falling 2 examination of the fishery reveals the many margins along which rent dissipation occurs and the nature of the regulations necessary for controlling fishing effort to avoid those losses the regulatory environment in texas is complicated by conflict within the fishery between inshore and offshore fishermen the latter assert that bay shrimping reduces the number of shrimp that successfully migrate to the gulf the inshore fishery is highlighted by another issue the recent resettlement of some 30 45 000 vietnamese refugees including many fishermen along the texas coast marine advisory service paul starr their entry has been met by hostility and violence from existing shrimpers who recognize that they are in an environment characterized by the absence of property rights bay shrimpers have lobbied the texas legislature for broad limits on new entrants yet ironically the sale of additional boats by individual shrimpers to the vietnamese has facilitated entry of the refugees into the fishery regulations in the texas shrimp and other fisheries are incomplete leaving many options for rent dissipation uncontrolled because of high contracting costs among fishermen and political factors that mold government actions contracting costs are high among heterogeneous fishermen who vary principally with regard to fishing skill 3 montana state university and texas a m university respectively we benefitted from comments by terry anderson raymond c battalio gardner brown oscar burt micha gisser wade griffin john r moroney anthony d scott peter temin and participants in workshops at texas a m university and the university of washington research assistance was provided by scott barnhart and phil mizzi funding was provided by sea grant texas a m university throughout this paper we use the terms common property and open access interchangeably here the terms describe a situation where no property rights group or individual exist s for the resource 2catch per unit of effort in the inshore texas gulf and federal gulf waters is presented for 1963 77 by w l griffin c g tydlacka and w e grant they show catch per unit of effort generally falling in inshore and offshore waters while catch per unit of effort fluctuates from year to year it falls from approximately 360 kg shrimp per unit of effort to 220 kg from 1963 to 1977 the common property nature of the fishery is reflected in the following statistics since 1975 the number of vessels has grown by 23 percent nelson swartz for fish houses the record of entry is similar between 1970 a d 1977 the number of firms grew from 259 to 287 though during that period many left the industry as others entered the number of fish houses was calculated from license data supplied by the texas parks and wildlife department the record of entry by fish houses suggests that monopsony as discussed by colin clark and gordon munro is absent in the fishery 3there may be minor differences in labor leisure choices and capital but our statistical evidence and discussions with fishermen indicate that catch variations are largely due to skill government regulations in the texas bays restrict capital and our empirical evidence shows boats to be relatively homogeneous

personal experiences and expectations about aggregate outcomes using novel survey data we document that individuals extrapolate from recent personal experiences when forming expectations about aggregate economic outcomes recent locally experienced house price movements affect expectations about future u s house price changes and higher experienced house price volatility causes respondents to report a wider distribution over expected u s house price movements when we exploit within individual variation in employment status we find that individuals who personally experience unemployment become more pessimistic about future nationwide unemployment the extent of extrapolation is unrelated to how informative personal experiences are is inconsistent with risk adjustment and is more pronounced for less sophisticated individuals