assessing the effects of wives earnings on family income inequality we argue that the effect of wives earnings can be assessed meaningfully only by comparing the observed distribution of income with a reference distribution the components of the standard decomposition of the gini coefficient have no implicit reference distribution and therefore should not be interpreted as a measure of the effect of an income source on inequality we suggest several intuitive counterfactual reference distributions and illustrate their use with 1979 and 1989 u s data we conclude that wives earnings reduced inequality in that the income distribution would have been less equal in their absence alternative measures of the impact have mixed results

asset inequality matters an assessment of the world bank s approach to poverty reduction the fight against poverty has been adopted by the multilateral development banks as their principal objective almost three decades after robert mcnamara announced that the world bank s fundamental work was to improve the lives of the poor its new president james wolfensohn has reiterated that poverty reduction is the world bank s principal purpose similarly in 1994 the inter american development bank set social progress and social equity as its central objective the emphasis in the international institutions contrasts with disappointing results in the real world although life expectancy school enrollmuent and other indicators of social wellbeing have improved dramatically across the developing world and although the proportion of the poor has declined in the last few decades the absolute number of poor people in the world has actually increased today about 1 3 billion people in less developed countries still subsist on less than 1 per day world bank 1980 1990 1996 the case of latin america is dramatic while in the 1970 s the number of poor fell it nearly doubled in the 1980 s increasing from about 80 to almost 150 million and in the last few years the number of poor now 33 percent of the total population has failed to fall despite economic recovery birdsall and londofio 1997 the contrast between the multilateral banks goals and these disappointing results suggests the need for a critical reassessment of their approach to poverty reduction in this paper we describe the approach reflected in the work of world bank economists and based on new empirical work assess its relevance for latin america

to have and have not international migration poverty and inequality in algeria in this paper using an original survey we analyze the distributional impact of international migration across two regions of algeria a semi parametric descriptive analysis is complemented with a parametric model remittances do not significantly change the gini coefficient in nearly any of the counterfactual scenarios however migration reduced poverty by 40 percent with different effects across regions for extreme poverty foreign transfers especially foreign pensions have a strong positive impact on very poor families in one region poor families in the other region suffer from a double loss their migrants do not provide local income and they do not send much money home

technological vs ecological switch and the environmental kuznets curve we consider an optimal technology adoption ak model in line with boucekkine krawczyk and vallee 2011 an economy caring about consumption and pollution as well starts with a given technological regime and may decide to switch at any moment to a cleaner technology at a given permanent or transitory output cost at the same time we posit that there exists a pollution threshold above which the assimilation capacity of nature goes down featuring a kind of irreversible ecological regime we study how ecological irreversibility interacts with the ingredients of the latter optimal technological switch problem with a special attention to induced capital pollution relationship we find that if a single technological switch is optimal one recovers the environmental kuznets curve provided initial pollution is high enough if exceeding the ecological threshold is optimal then the latter configuration is far from being the rule

international migration the brain drain and poverty a cross country analysis the aim of the paper is threefold first it empirically investigates the effect of international migration on poverty in origin countries using data from a cross country analysis second it explores the specific part of the income distribution from which migrants are drawn by comparing the effect of international migration on different income quintiles of the population finally given that the selection of migrants depends not only on the income level of their households but also on the skill levels of movers the paper casts some light on the implications of the emigration of skilled workers on poverty this article shows that the stock of international migrants have a positive effect on the income of the poor while it does not have a significant impact on the income of the middle and top quintiles of the population in particular a 10 per cent increase in the per capita stock of migrants resident in oecd nations augments the income of the poor by 1 per cent on average and ceteris paribus finally the poverty reducing effect of migration holds even when the emigration process selects the best and the brightest

pricing risk adjusted deposit insurance an option based model this paper presents a methodology for arriving at empirical estimates of deposit insurance premiums from market data by using isomorphic relationships betweeen equity and a call option and insurance and a put option the data utilizes the market value of equity to solve for the asset value and its volatility market perceptions of fdic bailout policies are explicitly modeled so as to eliminate the bias in inverted values of assets and their volatility sensitivity analyses are performed to show that rank orderings based on premiums are robust to changes in specification thus facilitating allocation of aggregate premium across banks while economists have long argued in favor of risk adjusted deposit insurance as both more equitable and more efficient than the current system of flatrate premiums various recent developments have further contributed to an increasing dissatisfaction with the current system first both the banking industry and the government seem to be tending to the view that deregulation of the banking industry would be necessary in order to meet more sophisticated future demands on the industry as well as desirable as a policy means of stimulating greater competition among banks moreover a sudden rise in the incidence of bank failures 1 and the vulnerability of the u s banks to the socalled international debt crisis have served to bring to the fore concern about the health of the banking industry in the absence of deposit insurance riskier banks will be able to attract deposits only at higher rates and these higher costs of funding serve as built in market regulated incentives to limit excessive risk taking by banks as introduction of deposit insurance makes deposits equally risk free across banks these incentives disappear and regulation and close supervision of the banking industry must necessarily replace them as deterrents to excessive risk taking thus when insurance is offered at a flat premium regulation is designed to ensure that the risk posed to the insurer both asset and financial risk is appropriately uniform

labour migration and social networks participation in southern mozambique this paper investigates how social networks in poor developing settings are affected by migration using a unique household survey from southern mozambique we test the role of labour mobility in shaping participation in groups and interhousehold cooperation by migrant sending households in village economies at origin we find that migration cum remittances boosts household engagement in community based social networks our findings are robust to alternative definitions of social interaction and to endogeneity concerns suggesting that stable migration ties and higher income stability through remittances may decrease participation constraints and increase household commitment in cooperative arrangements in migrant sending communities

a gravity model analysis of international migration to north america this study examines the influence of political economic and demographic factors on the size and composition of migration flows to north america a modified gravity model is specified and adjusted to include immigration regulations and characteristics specific to the origin and destination countries for empirical test of the model the time period of study is from 1976 1986 and 70 countries are covered for a total of 1540 observations of migration flows to canada and the usa the results reveal that the population of origin countries and the income of destination countries are two major determinants of migration to north america high population areas of asia and latin america provided a large share of the immigrants domestic restrictions on political and civil freedom in origin countries are found to significantly impair migration to north america

do workers remittances reduce the probability of current account reversals the authors combine the literature on financial crises in emerging markets and developing economies with that on international migrations by investigating whether the increasingly large flows of workers remittances can help reduce the probability of current account reversals the rationale for this stands in the great stability and low cyclicality of remittances as compared with other private capital flows these properties combined with the fact that remittances are cheap inflows of foreign currencies might reduce the probability that foreign investors suddenly flee out of emerging markets and developing economies and trigger a dramatic current account adjustment the authors find that remittances can have such a beneficial effect in particular they show that a high level of remittances as a ratio of gdp makes the relationship between a decreasing stock of international reserves over gdp and a higher probability of current account crises less stringent the same occurs though less neatly for the positive relationship between an increasing stock of external debt over gdp and the probability of current account reversals the results point also to a threshold effect of remittances the mechanisms just described are in fact much stronger when remittances are above 3 percent of gdp

remittances and inequality in this paper the authors propose a framework and develop techniques for analyzing the impact of migrant remittances on the distribution of rural income by size and subsequently its impact on rural welfare household data are used to assign numerical coefficients to the impact of net remittances from both internal and international migrants on income inequality in 2 mexican villages the impact of migrant remittances on the distribution of rural income by size depends critically on the degree to which migration opportunities become diffused through the village population on the returns to human capital embodied in remittances and on the distribution of potentially remittance enhancing skills and education across village households our empirical findings demonstrate that in a village where many households contain internal migrants but few have experience migrating to the u s remittances from mexico to us migrants have an unequalizing impact on village incomes while remittances from internal migrants have a favorable effect on the village income distribution by contrast in a village with a long historyh of sending migrants to the us and hence a more ready access to us labor markets us to mexico remittances have an equalizing impact on incomes remittances from internal migrants in this village however embody a large human capital component and are highly correlated with household income hence internal migrant remittances account for a comparatively large share of inequalities in the 2nd village the overall effect of remittances on income inequality is favorable in both villages migration type migration stage and interaction terms all appear to play a role in this context the effects of small changes in remittances upon income inequality and rural welfare in the 2 villages are explored and some implications for migration and rural development policy are considered authors modified

livelihoods and poverty the role of migration a critical review of the migration literature this review of the literature concludes that development studies have paid insufficient attention to labour migration and makes a plea to integrate analyses of migration within those of agricultural and rural development it emphasises that population mobility is much more common than is often assumed and that this has been so throughout human history in fact available material suggests that it is as likely that population mobility has decreased as that it has increased a review of empirical studies shows that it may not be possible to generalise about the characteristics of migrants or about the effects of migration on broader development inequality or poverty the review concludes that given the importance of migration for the rural livelihoods of many people policies should be supportive of population mobility and possibilities should be explored to enhance the positive effects of migration

migration remittances and inequality a sensitivity analysis using the extended gini index abstract this paper uses the extended gini inequality index to examine the sensitivity of measurements of impacts of migrant remittances on the distribution of household income by size to different value judgements when measuring inequality the results illustrate the robustness of earlier findings that the impacts of migration on village income distributions differ for different types of migration and for different periods in a village s migration history the magnitude of these impacts however appears to be quite sensitive to the weights attached to incomes at different points in the village income distribution for example in a village with considerable mexico to u s migration experience remittances from mexico to u s migrants have a favorable effect on the village income distribution however the extended gini analysis shows that this favorable impact decreases as more weight is attached to incomes in the poorest households this finding is consistent with the view that barriers to high paying mexico to u s migration work exist for households at the bottom of the village income distribution

a theoretical basis for the environmental kuznets curve abstract this paper attempts to explain the environmental kuznets curve ekc or inverted u shaped relationship between income and environmental degradation in the framework of endogenous growth model considering a closed economy one part of capital is used for commodity production which generates pollution that degrades existing environment and the remaining part is used for abating pollution i e upgrading environment sufficient abatement activity improves restores environmental quality a sufficient abatement activity associated with commodity production could only lead optimally towards steady state the ratio of allocation of capital between two sectors production and abatement is fixed along the optimal path but it varies along the non optimal path that exists in the off steady state in the economy allocation of capital for abatement activity varies over time thus a change from insufficient to sufficient allocation of capital i e investment for abatement activity is the basis for an inverted u shaped relationship between environmental quality and economic growth

optimal transition to renewable energy with threshold of irreversible pollution when cheap fossil energy is polluting and pollutant no longer absorbed beyond a certain concentration there is a moment when the introduction of a cleaner renewable energy although onerous is optimal with respect to inter temporal utility the cleaner technology is adopted either instantaneously or gradually at a controlled rate the problem of optimum under viability constraints is 6 dimensional under a continuous discrete dynamic controlled by energy consumption and investment into production of renewable energy viable optima are obtained either with gradual or with instantaneous adoption a longer time horizon increases the probability of adoption of renewable energy and the time for starting this adoption it also increases maximal utility and the probability to cross the threshold of irreversible pollution exploiting a renewable energy starts sooner when adoption is gradual rather than instantaneous the shorter the period remaining after adoption until the time horizon the higher the investment into renewable energy

the case for restricting fiscal policy discretion this paper studies the effects of discretionary fiscal policy on output volatility and economic growth using data for 91 countries we isolate three empirical regularities 1 governments that use fiscal policy aggressively induce significant macroeconomic instability 2 the volatility of output caused by discretionary fiscal policy lowers economic growth by more than 0 8 percentage points for every percentage point increase in volatility 3 prudent use of fiscal policy is explained to a large extent by the presence of political constraints and other political and institutional variables the evidence in the paper supports arguments for constraining discretion by imposing institutional restrictions on governments as a way to reduce output volatility and increase the rate of economic growth

aftermath of banking crises effects on real and monetary variables abstract this paper models the effects of a banking crisis and in particular distinguishes between a short term crisis such as a banking panic and a longer term crisis such as a banking insolvency using an optimizing framework it shows that depositors shift from deposits into cash in both types of crises which results in an increase in the interest rates on deposits and loans and a contraction in output and consumption however when the crisis is resolved in a finite time period there is an intertemporal substitution of consumption and consumption is postponed until the crisis is resolved this in turn results in a further decline in the demand for money availability of credit and output

economic growth inequality and poverty estimating the growth elasticity of poverty summary this paper uses a new data set of 126 intervals from 60 developing countries to analyze the growth elasticity of poverty that is how much does poverty decline in percentage terms with a given percentage rise in economic growth the data set is both broader in coverage and more selective in terms of quality controls than those used in the past the study finds that while economic growth does reduce poverty in developing countries the rate of poverty reduction depends very much on how economic growth is defined controlling for changes in income inequality when economic growth is measured by changes in survey mean income consumption the growth elasticity of poverty excluding eastern europe and central asia is 2 79 that is a 10 increase in the survey mean will reduce poverty 1 00 person day by 27 9 but when growth is measured by changes in gdp per capita the growth elasticity of poverty is a statistically insignificant 2 27 which is lower than has previously been estimated

the shadow value of migrant remittances income and inequality in a household farm economy this article offers econometric evidence that income remittances sent home by family migrants stimulate household farm incomes indirectly by relieving credit and risk constraints on household farm production a high but unequally distributed shadow value of migrant remittances appears to reinforce an equalising direct effect of remittances on the income distribution across a sample of household farms in rural mexico

motivations to remit evidence from botswana in this article a theory of motivations to send remittances is described and tested with data from botswana altruism is one of the motivations tested and found to be an insufficient explanation for remittances among migrants in botswana a refinement of the model stipulates a modified altruism or enlightened self interest in this model the relationship between the migrant and family is tempered by an implicit understanding of mutual benefit the household strategy may be to encourage some members to migrate as a means of spreading risk and sharing gains the household strategy is similar to an insurance policy where migration is to places where market potential is high the risks incurred might be high the example is given of migration during a drought in botswana migrant remittances were greater in households with more cattle or households with more to lose drought alone was not statistically related to remittances increases in remittances were related to increased levels of education it is suggested that repayment was the motive for parents investment in migrants education migrants gains are identified as the potential for an inheritance the security of channeling investments through a trusted family member and security in having a home to return to it is pointed out that the altruism and family remittances from urban migration were strategies that bridged the simple dynamic of either urban development or rural development impacting on family welfare it is suggested that household models of economy adopt some measure to express the relationship of household wealth to remittances from urban migrants

economic effects of migration on the left behind in cambodia abstractusing propensity score matching this study examines the effects of migration on various indicators of household wellbeing in cambodia the results indicate that migration would reduce poverty headcount rate by 3 7 percentage points and decrease the depth of poverty migration is also found to reduce by 5 10 per cent the hours worked by members left behind the impact of migration on labour participation may be however vulnerable to unobservable factors nevertheless the study suggests that important heterogeneous effects which differ from the average impact exist the analysis is conducted separately by internal and international migration

the impact of migration on rural poverty and inequality a case study in china large numbers of agricultural labor moved from the countryside to cities after the economic reforms in china migration and remittances play an important role in transforming the structure of rural household income this article examines the impact of rural to urban migration on rural poverty and inequality in a mountainous area of hubei province using the data of a 2002 household survey since migration income is a potential substitute for farm income we present counterfactual scenarios of what rural income poverty and inequality would have been in the absence of migration our results show that by providing alternatives to households with lower marginal labor productivity in agriculture migration leads to an increase in rural income in contrast to many studies that suggest that the increasing share of nonfarm income in total income widens inequality this article offers support for the hypothesis that migration tends to have egalitarian effects on rural income for three reasons 1 migration is rational self selection farmers with higher expected return in agricultural activities and or in local nonfarm activities choose to remain in the countryside while those with higher expected return in urban nonfarm sectors migrate 2 households facing binding constraints of land supply are more likely to migrate 3 poorer households benefit disproportionately from migration

determinants of workers remittances an empirical investigation for a panel of eleven developing asian economies we explore the key motives of migrant workers remittances from abroad for 11 major asian migrant sending countries using panel regressions we find that relative higher growth rate interest rate and capital market returns of home over the host investment financial deepening at home have significant impact on remittance inflows into asia along with higher per capita incomes and international crude oil prices with incorporation of per capita incomes and lagged impact of remittances we observe an emergence of consumption motives to remit therefore we conclude that both investment and altruistic motives are the driving forces for remittances inflows into the asian economies

network effects and the dynamics of migration and inequality theory and evidence from mexico international migration is costly and initially only the middle class of the wealth distribution may have both the means and incentives to migrate which can increase inequality in the sending community however the migration networks formed lower the costs for future migrants which can in turn lower inequality this paper shows both theoretically and empirically that wealth has a nonlinear effect on migration and then examines the empirical evidence for an inverse u shaped relationship between emigration and inequality in rural sending communities in mexico after instrumenting we find that the overall impact of migration is to reduce inequality across communities with relatively high levels of past migration we also find some suggestive evidence for an inverse u shaped relationship among communities with a wider range of migration experiences

the impact of banking sector stability on the real economy this article studies the relationship between the degree of banking sector stability and the subsequent evolution of real output growth and in ation adopting a panel var methodology for a sample of 18 oecd countries we flnd a positive link between banking sector stability and real output growth this flnding is predominantly driven by periods of instability rather than by very stable periods in addition we show that an unstable banking sector increases uncertainty about future output growth no clear link between banking sector stability and in ation seems to exist we then argue that the link between banking stability and real output growth can be used to improve output growth forecasts using fed forecast errors we show that banking sector stability instability results in a signiflcant underestimation overestimation of gdp growth in the subsequent quarters

migrant remittances and fertility abstractthis study examines the role of migrants remittances in developing countries fertility transition employing an unbalanced panel of south asian countries and controlling for various economic and socio demographic factors we find that remittances are significantly associated with a lower number of children born to women of childbearing age this suggests the remittances substitution effect to be at play rather than the income effect and may result from decreased need for children for financing the household s future needs as well as from better access to healthcare and contraceptive methods available to migrant households remittances association with fertility appears to be more important than the transfer of fertility norms from migrants host countries the monetary aspects of international migration may therefore be more important for the region s demographic transition than social remittances

can the world cut poverty in half how policy reform and effective aid can meet international development goals abstract poverty in the developing world will decline by about one half by 2015 if the trends of the 1990s persist most of this poverty reduction will occur in asia however while poverty will decline only slightly in africa effective aid could make a contribution to greater poverty reduction in lagging regions even more potent would be significant policy reform in these countries we develop a model of efficient aid in which flows respond to policy improvements that create a better environment for poverty reduction and effective aid we investigate scenarios of policy reform and efficient aid that point the way to how the world can cut poverty in half in every major region

federal reserve information and the behavior of interest rates this paper tests for the existence of asymmetric information between the federal reserve and the public by examining federal reserve and commercial inflation forecasts it demonstrates that the federal reserve has considerable information about inflation beyond what is known to commercial forecasters it also shows that monetary policy actions provide signals of the federal reserve s information and that commercial forecasters modify their forecasts in response to those signals these findings may explain why long term interest rates typically rise in response to shifts to tighter monetary policy jel e52 e43 d82 asymmetric information between the federal reserve and the public is a phenomenon that is often posited but rarely tested numerous models of central bank behavior for example show that the existence of asymmetric information has important implications for the effectiveness of policy and the consequences of dynamic inconsistency yet there

do international migration and remittances reduce poverty in developing countries summary few studies have examined the impact of international migration and remittances on poverty in the developing world this paper fills this lacuna by constructing and analyzing a new data set on international migration remittances inequality and poverty from 71 developing countries the results show that both international migration and remittances significantly reduce the level depth and severity of poverty in the developing world after instrumenting for the possible endogeneity of international migration and controlling for various factors results suggest that on average a 10 increase in the share of international migrants in a country s population will lead to a 2 1 decline in the share of people living on less than 1 00 per person per day after instrumenting for the possible endogeneity of international remittances a similar 10 increase in per capita official international remittances will lead to a 3 5 decline in the share of people living in poverty

the cost of uncertainty about the timing of social security reform abstract we develop a model to study optimal decision making in the face of uncertainty about the timing and structure of a future event the model is used to study optimal decision making and welfare when individuals face uncertainty about when and how social security will be reformed for young individuals with many years to optimally hedge the risks that they face the welfare cost of uncertainty about the timing and structure of reform is just a few basis points of total lifetime consumption in contrast the cost of reform uncertainty can be greater than 1 of total lifetime consumption for individuals close to retirement even if they have saved optimally up to that point finally the cost is significantly higher still for those who do not save optimally to hedge these risks

law finance and firm growth we investigate how differences in legal and financial systems affect firms use of external financing to fund growth we show that in countries whose legal systems score high on an efficiency index a greater proportion of firms use long term external financing an active though not necessarily large stock market and a large banking sector are also associated with externally financed firm growth the increased reliance on external financing occurs in part because established firms in countries with well functioning institutions have lower profit rates government subsidies to industry do not increase the proportion of firms relying on external financing the corporate finance literature suggests that market imperfections caused by conflicts of interest and informational asymmetries between corporate insiders and investors constrain firms in their ability to fund investment projects the magnitude of these imperfections depends in part on the effectiveness of the legal and financial systems because these systems differ across countries the literature implies that there should exist systematic cross country differences in firms ability to obtain external capital to finance investment in this paper we examine whether the underdevelopment of legal and financial systems does prevent firms in some countries from investing in potentially profitable growth opportunities in particular we focus on the use of long term debt or external equity to fund growth see our earlier work demirgut kunt and maksimovic 1996a which compares firms financial structures in developed and developing countries and finds the greatest difference to be in the provision of long term credit we estimate a financial planning model to obtain the maximum growth rate that each firm in our thirty country sample could attain without access to long term financing we then compare these predicted growth rates to growth rates realized by firms in countries with differing degrees of development in their legal and financial systems our approach enables us to identify specific characteristics of the legal and financial systems that are associated with long term financing of firm growth thus we provide a micro level test of the hypoth

are there limits to growth a simple theoretical model of pollution is developed that generates an inverted u shape relationship between per capita income and environmental quality this model is then used to study long run growth the same inverted u shape is shown to appear in time series and the prospects for sustained growth are shown to hinge on whether increasingly strict environmental regulation is compatible with a constant rate of return on capital implementation is also studied tax and voucher schemes are shown to have an advantage over direct regulation because they provide the correct incentives for capital accumulation copyright 1998 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

remittances poverty inequality and welfare evidence from the central plateau of burkina faso abstract this paper applies gini and concentration coefficient decomposition as well as the foster greer thorbecke poverty index and the stark yitzhaki welfare index to new data from four villages in burkina faso to compare the marginal effects of remittances from intercontinental and intra african migration on inequality poverty and social welfare evidence is found that intra african remittances reduce inequality while intercontinental remittances have the opposite effect also it is found that although remittances from intercontinental migration are associated with much lower incidence depth and severity of poverty the marginal impact of remittances from this form of migration on social welfare is limited because recipients do not include the rural poor

income transfers of chinese rural migrants some empirical evidence from jinan this paper explores the determinants of migrant remittances to rural households using data on male migrant workers drawn from the jinan municipality in shandong province in the summer of 1995 the majority of migrants are found to retain close links with their rural households with 85 remitting some income in the 12 months preceding the survey date the transfers accounted for over a third of urban labour earnings a number of models are used to undertake the estimation of remittance functions no evidence of altruistic behaviour is uncovered and evidence for exchange and coinsurance theories is mixed labour earnings proved the most robust determinant of the level of remittance and the remittance wage elasticity calculated is found to be at the top end of the range of estimates obtained in the literature

revisiting the threshold effect of remittances on total factor productivity growth in south asia a study of bangladesh and india abstractboth bangladesh and india are among the top recipient of remittances in absolute terms however in relative terms remittances as a per cent of gdp the two countries stand at 6 1 and 2

the legal environment banks and long run economic growth this paper examines the relationship between the legal system and banlding development and traces this connection through to long run rates of per capita gdp growth capital stock growth and productivity growth the data indicate that countries where the legal system 1 emphasizes creditor rights and 2 rigorously enforces contracts have better developed banks than countries where laws do not give a high priority to creditors and where enforcement is lax furtherrnore the exogenous component of banking development the component defined by the legal environment is positively and robustly associated with per capita growth physical capital accumulation and productivity growth this paper addresses two questions first do crosscountry differences in the legal rights of creditors the efficiency of contract enforcement and the origin of the legal system explain cross country differences in the level of banking development second do better developed banks cause faster economic development that is is the component of banking development defined by the legal environment positively associated with long run rates of economic growth capital accumulation and productivity growth examining the relationship between the legal system and banking development is valuable irrespective of issues associated with long run growth first banks may influence the level of income per capita and the magnitude of cyclical fluctuations bernanke and gertler 1989 1990 second many economists stress that understanding the evolution of legal and financial systems is essential for understanding economic development north 1981 engerman and sokoloff 1996 consequently quantitative information on the relationship between the legal environment and banks will improve our understanding of business cycles and the process of economic development furthermore examining the causal links between banks and economic growth has both conceptual and policy implications on the conceptual front a long literature debates the importance of banks in economic development starting as early as bagehot 1873 economists have argued that better banks banks that are better at identifying creditworthy firms mobilizing savings pooling risks and facilitating transactions

the real output losses associated with modern banking crises this study investigates the real output losses associated with modern banking crises we find a remarkable diversity of experience in a number of instances banking crises have not been associated with any significant reduction in the growth of real per capita gdp often this has been the case in mature and developed economies on the other hand estimated output losses are extremely large for some other countriesnamounting to several years of lost gdp interestingly such large losses can be associated with banking crises that were designated as non systemic our sample mean and median output loss estimates are also big for the average sample country the estimated present discounted value of crisis related output losses is bounded between 63 and 302 of real per capita gdp in the last year before the crisis onset average loss estimates are this large primarily because we find evidence that post crisis economic slowdowns often persist long after the crisis is officially over such delayed costs have been largely overlooked in previous empirical work and resultantly our loss estimates are much larger than those that have appeared elsewhere

costs of banking system instability some empirical evidence abstract this paper assesses the cross country stylised facts on empirical measures of the losses incurred during periods of banking crises we first consider the direct resolution costs to the government and then the broader costs to the welfare of the economy proxied by losses in gdp we find that the cumulative output losses incurred during crisis periods are large roughly 15 20 on average of annual gdp in contrast to previous research we also find that output losses incurred during crises in developed countries are as high or higher on average than those in emerging market economies moreover output losses during crisis periods in developed countries also appear to be significantly larger 10 15 than in neighbouring countries that did not at the time experience severe banking problems in emerging market economies by contrast banking crises appear to be costly only when accompanied by a currency crisis these results seem robust to allowing for macroeconomic conditions at the outset of crisis in particular low and declining output growth that have also contributed to future output losses during crises episodes

remittances and public finances evidence from oil price shocks we study the effect of inflowing remittances a major source of capital for many countries on tax revenues and tax policy instrumenting remittances with changes in the oil price interacted with a country s distance to oil producing countries we find that remittances have a large positive effect on vat revenues but no effect on income tax revenues this suggests that remittances often escape the income tax but can be taxed via consumption we further show that tax policy is responsive to shocks in incoming remittances remittances make the adoption of vat systems more likely and they lead to lower vat rates and higher income tax rates

international migration remittances and schooling evidence from el salvador abstract we examine the effect of remittances from abroad on households schooling decisions using data for el salvador following the massive war related emigration of the 1980s remittances became a significant source of household income throughout the 1990s we use the cox proportional hazard model to examine the determinants of school attendance measuring income from a source that is uncorrelated with parental schooling remittances we find that remittances have a large significant effect on school retention we estimate that while household income net of remittances has a small though significant impact on the hazard of leaving school in rural and urban areas remittances have a much larger impact on the hazard of leaving school in urban areas the effect of remittances is at its smallest 10 times the size of the effect of other income in rural areas the effect of remittances is about 2 6 times that of other income our finding is of interest in that it suggests that subsidizing school attendance particularly in poor areas may have a large impact on school attendance and retention even if parents have low levels of schooling

on the causal nexus of remittances and poverty reduction in bangladesh the aim of this article is to investigate the causal relationship between remittances and poverty reduction in bangladesh over the period 1976 to 2010 this issue is of fundamental importance for the developing economy of bangladesh we apply newly developed methods by hacker and hatemi j 2006 2012 that are based on simulations and are robust to the violation of statistical assumptions especially when the sample size is small as is the case in this article our estimation results reveal that causality nexus of poverty and remittances is bi directional we also find that the causal impact of poverty reduction on remittance is stronger than the reverse impact this finding implies that bangladeshi policy makers can influence remittances through poverty reduction in the long run

on migration and risk in ldcs the authors develop the hypothesis that aversion to risk rather than expectations of higher income is the primary motivation for rural urban migration in developing countries this hypothesis maintains that an optimizing risk averse small farmer family will try to place a family member in the urban sector in order to diversify its income portfolio an additional hypothesis related to risk is also considered at the individual rather than the family level annotation

harnessing the diaspora dual citizenship migrant return remittances political rights provided to immigrants by host countries have received much attention in the literature less attention however has been paid to the extension of extraterritorial rights by home countries in this article i focus on a common type of right provided by home countries to their expatriates the right of dual citizenship dual citizenship rights i argue help home countries leverage the financial and human resources of their diasporas encouraging both remittances and return migration i test this argument using migrant surveys performed in six host countries and find that migrants from homelands that extend dual citizenship are more likely to both remit and express a desire to return home the micro finding regarding remittances is confirmed using aggregate panel data for a large sample of homelands over the period 1980 2009 the results point to the importance of political rights and policies as extended by the migrant s homeland

does the federal reserve possess an exploitable informational advantage abstract this paper provides evidence that the federal reserve has an informational advantage over the public that can be exploited to improve activist monetary policy the informational superiority does not result from the fed having earlier access to publicly released financial data instead this advantage is generated by confidential supervisory knowledge about troubled non publicly traded institutions as a result this information can remain confidential for an extended period since these banks have neither the desire to fully disclose the extent of their financial troubles nor the requirement to do so the informational advantage is both statistically significant and economically important providing a potential justification for activist monetary policy

migration growth distribution and welfare abstract in this note we argue that the inverted u curve of inequality is a technical derivative of the attributes of the conventional indices of inequality that these indices are inadequate measures of the change in welfare associated with the typical distributional consequences of rural to urban migration and that an explicit welfare judgment with respect to this process should and can be made

measuring income elasticity for swiss money demand what do the cantons say about financial innovation abstract recent time series evidence has re confirmed the forecasting ability of swiss broad money the same money demand studies and others however find that the income elasticity is greater than one such parameter estimates are difficult to reconcile with transactions demand theory this study re examines the estimates for income elasticity in money demand based on cross regional evidence for switzerland particular attention is given to the influence of regional financial sophistication the cross cantonal results find that the income elasticity lies between 0 4 and 0 6 this discrepancy between the two empirical methodologies has important consequences for the conduct of swiss monetary policy

financial market participation and the apparent instability of money demand abstract this paper uses multi period cross sectional data on financial assets holdings to shed light on the postwar stability of money demand in the united states i first present a new measure of the evolution of financial market participation by relating participation to the extensive margins of money demand and quantify the influence of wealth on participation decisions i then relate the increase in participation to the period of missing money and to the subsequent higher interest rate elasticity of monetary aggregates the paper indicates that time series estimations of money demand relationships are inherently flawed and tend to inappropriately suggest instability

what can new survey data tell us about recent changes in distribution and poverty it has been claimed that in recent times the poor have lost ground both relatively and absolutely even when average levels of living have risen this article tests that claim using household surveys for 67 developing and transitional economies over 1981 94 it finds that changes in inequality and polarization were uncorrelated with changes in average living standards distribution improved as often as it worsened in growing economies and negative growth was often more detrimental to distribution than positive growth overall there was a small decrease in absolute poverty although with diverse experiences across regions and countries almost always poverty fell with growth in average living standards and rose with contraction

international migration and nutritional outcomes in tajikistan abstract tajikistan is the country with the largest share of remittances to gdp in the world at the same time it suffers from stubbornly high levels of child malnutrition against which only very slow progress has been made this paper investigates the relationship between international migration and child malnutrition using data from a recent nationally representative household survey there are theoretical reasons to expect that migration may be exerting both positive and negative effects on nutrition and food security so that understanding what the net effect may be is essentially an empirical question our results indicate that migration appears to be playing a positive role in enhancing child growth patterns as measured by height for age z scores in the country we explore some of the possible channels through which this effect might be operating and find that one such channel is by increasing households kilocalorie consumption

remittances and temporary migration in this paper we study the remittance behavior of immigrants and how it relates to temporary versus permanent migration plans we use a unique data source that provides unusual detail on remittances and return plans and follows the same household over time our data allows us also to distinguish between different purposes of remittances we analyze the association between individual and household characteristics and the geographic location of the family as well as return plans and remittances the panel nature of our data allows us to condition on household fixed effects to address measurement error and reverse causality we use an instrumental variable estimator our results show that changes in return plans are related to large changes in remittance flows

is bank supervision central to central banking whether central banks should play an active role in bank supervision and regulation is being debated both in the united states and abroad while the bank of england has recently been stripped of its supervisory responsibilities and several proposals in the united states have advocated removing bank supervision from the federal reserve system other countries are considering enhancing central bank involvement in this area many of the arguments for and against these proposals hinge on the effect this change would have on the ability of the central bank to conduct monetary policy we find that confidential supervisory information on bank ratings significantly improves

migration remittances and inequality estimating the net effects of migration on income distribution this paper examines the net effects of migration and remittances on income distribution potential home earnings of migrants are imputed as are the earnings of non migrants in migrant households in order to construct no migration counterfacmals to compare with the observed income distribution including remittances the earnings functions used to impute migrant home earnings are estimated from observations on non migrants in a selection corrected estimation framework which incorporates migration choice and labor force participation decisions for a sample of households in bluefields nicaragua migration and remittances increase income inequality when compared with the no migration counterfactual 1998 elsevier science b v

the influence of remittances on education and health outcomes a cross country study we study the effect of international remittances on aggregate educational and health outcomes using a sample of 69 low and middle income countries we find that remittances play an important role in improving primary and secondary school attainment increasing life expectancy and reducing infant mortality our results suggest that as migration laws continue to support greater emigration and remittances policies should be enacted to facilitate the flow of remittances as they represent a significant source for economic development

are remittances a substitute for credit carrying the financial burden of health shocks in national and transnational households summary this paper tests for the assumption that remittances are a substitute for credit by comparing the response to health related shocks among national and transnational households using mexican household panel data while the occurrence of serious health shocks that required hospital treatment doubled the average debt burden of exposed households compared to the control group households with nuclear family members a parent child or spouse in the us did not increase their debts due to health shocks this finding is consistent with the view that remittances respond to households demand for financing emergencies and make them less reliant on debt financing

larger crises cost more impact of banking sector instability on output growth we propose a method for calculating the macroeconomic costs of banking crises that controls for the downward impact of recessions on banking activity in contrast to earlier research we estimate the cost of crises based on the size of banking crises the extent of a crisis is measured using banking sector aggregates the results based on our method and data from over 100 banking crises suggest that the size of a crisis matters for economic growth lower credit deposit and money growth during crises cause gdp growth to decline

an overlapping generations model of growth and the environment this article analyzes the potential conflict between economic growth and the maintenance of environmental quality in an overlapping generations model short lived individuals make decisions which have long lasting effects on both factor productivity and the environment the model provides a theoretical explanation of observed correlations between environmental quality and income whereby economic growth is associated first with declines then improvements in environmental quality it suggests circumstances in which multiple pareto ranked steady state equilibria may arise and in which sustained growth of both capital and environmental quality may occur overmaintenance of the environment analogous to dynamically inefficient overaccumulation of capital may emerge copyright 1994 by royal economic society

optimal regime switching and threshold effects we consider a general control problem with two types of optimal regime switch the first one concerns technological and or institutional regimes indexed by a finite number of discrete parameter values and the second features regimes relying on given threshold values for given state variables we propose a general optimal control framework allowing to derive the first order optimality conditions and in particular to characterize the geometry of the shadow prices at optimal switching times if any we apply this new optimal control material to address the problem of the optimal management of natural resources under ecological irreversibility and with the possibility to switch to a backstop technology

do remittances diminish social violence abstractthis paper represents the first attempt to formalise the relationship between remittances and social violence by developing a model that predicts that migrants remittances lead to the reduction of social violence in the recipient economy under the condition that remittances increase the average product of labour using homicide data as an indicator of social violence we tested our model s prediction controlling for the endogeneity problem with appropriate instruments we found that remittances tend to reduce social violence we performed sensitivity analysis on remittances in the empirical specification and found it robust with an unchanged negative sign

financial development and economic growth views and agenda this critique argues that the preponderance of theoretical reasoning and empirical evidence suggests a positive first order relationship between financial development and economic growth the body of work would push even most skeptics toward the belief that the development of financial markets and institutions is a critical and inextricable part of the growth process and away from the view that the financial system is an inconsequential sideshow responding passively to economic growth many gaps remain however and the paper highlights areas in acute need of additional research

can high inequality developing countries escape absolute poverty do the poor face the same prospects for escaping poverty in high inequality developing countries as in low inequality countries is it possible for inequality to be so great as to stifle prospects of reducing absolute poverty even when other initial conditions and policies are favorable to growth household survey data for developing countries suggest that initial distribution does affect how much the poor share in rising average incomes higher initial inequality tends to reduce growth s impact on absolute poverty by the same token higher inequality diminishes the adverse impact on the poor of general economic contraction combining this evidence with that from recent investigations of inequality s effect on growth the author finds that if inequality is high enough countries that would have very good growth prospects at low levels of inequality may see little or no overall growth and little progress in reducing poverty or even a worsening on both counts the data the author uses suggest that such cases do occur the precision with which key parameters have been estimated makes it difficult to say with confidence how common such cases are but they appear to be in the minority what appear to be the best available estimates suggest that about one fifth of the spells between surveys he analyzed were cases in which poverty was rising yet positive growth in the mean and hence falling poverty is predicted at zero inequality inequality can be high enough to result in rising poverty despite good underlying growth prospects

undocumented mexico u s migration and the returns to households in rural mexico this paper presents estimates of net income gains to a sample of households in rural mexico from sending migrants illegally to the united states correcting for sample selectivity bias and it examines the role of expected income gains in driving illegal mexico u s migration there is no evidence that people who migrate illegally to the united states are above average contributors to household income either as workers in mexico or as mexico u s migrants however other things being equal villagers who are in the best position to contribute to household income as workers in mexico are positively selected not to migrate to the united states

cross country evidence on the link between volatility and growth this paper presents empirical evidence against the standard dichotomy in macroeconomics that separates growth from the volatility of economic fluctuations in a sample of ninety two countries as well as a sample of oecd countries the authors find that countries with higher volatility have lower growth the addition of standard control variables strengthens the negative relationship the authors also find that government spending induced volatility is negatively associated with growth even after controlling for both time and country fixed effects copyright 1995 by american economic association