trade politics in the third world a case study of mexican gatt decision in 1980 mexico decided not to join the general agreement on tariffs and trade gatt certain objective conditions formed a positive environment for mexican adherence but president l6pez portillo postponed mexican entry indefinitely this critical decision is examined from two perspectives a left leaning foreign policy and domestic constraints in the mexican political system major foreign policy factors were a growing resentment of u s dominance combined with a preference for conducting relations with the u s on a bilateral basis internal political pressures reflected the continued reform of the mexican political system at the upper levels and the relative autonomy of some elite groups from the state l6pez portillo s decision did not constitute an outright rejection of trade liberalization however the decision could have international repercussions in politicizing u s mexican trade relations in slowing trends toward freer trade especially in latin america and in strengthening multilateral organizations like unctad in which third world countries exercise considerable power

reduction potentials of energy demand and ghg emissions in china s road transport sector abstract rapid growth of road vehicles private vehicles in particular has resulted in continuing growth in china s oil demand and imports which has been widely accepted as a major factor effecting future oil availability and prices and a major contributor to china s ghg emission increase this paper is intended to analyze the future trends of energy demand and ghg emissions in china s road transport sector and to assess the effectiveness of possible reduction measures a detailed model has been developed to derive a reliable historical trend of energy demand and ghg emissions in china s road transport sector between 2000 and 2005 and to project future trends two scenarios have been designed to describe the future strategies relating to the development of china s road transport sector the business as usual scenario is used as a baseline reference scenario in which the government is assumed to do nothing to influence the long term trends of road transport energy demand the best case scenario is considered to be the most optimized case where a series of available reduction measures such as private vehicle control fuel economy regulation promoting diesel and gas vehicles fuel tax and biofuel promotion are assumed to be implemented energy demand and ghg emissions in china s road transport sector up to 2030 are estimated in these two scenarios the total reduction potentials in the best case scenario and the relative reduction potentials of each measure have been estimated

the irish case of dependency an exception to the exceptions the dependency approach has recently been criticized by authors who quote the exceptional east asian cases the irish case is used to refute these new modernizationist arguments on two counts 1 countries such as ireland not the east asian countries have regimes with characteristics that tend to set dependency relations in motion these characteristics include radical free trade free enterprise andforeign industrial domination 2 because of these characteristics ireland has endured economic stagnation and tendencies toward higher inequality irish economic growth under foreign dominated industrialization was slowed by decapitalization and by the absence of linkages between foreign and domestic industry time series models show that foreign penetration and free trade are related to slower economic growth because of slower investment growth and other reasons inequality increased primarily because of rising unemployment although social welfare programs reduced the effects of direct income inequality their effects have been reduced by regressive taxation and austerity programs

modelling the transport sector fuel demand for developng economies abstract this paper concentrates on the transport sector of six developing countries with similar common denominators namely turkey thailand pakistan morocco tunisia and malaysia by using standard econometric techniques we analyse the evolution of oil demand for road transport in these countries in relation to independent variables such as income population price of gasoline and diesel etc unlike the treatment in the present literature on the subject gasoline and diesel consumption are estimated separately due to the high share of diesel in the total transport sector consumption on the basis of the estimation over the period 1970 1990 on a country by country basis we forecast the demand for these six countries until 2010 the results of this study indicate that the transport sector will be the driving force for energy and oil demand as part of economic growth in these developing countries its share in the future energy market structure is expected to grow consequently the pricing policies of oil products in this sector have a crucial role for shaping rational economic and energy strategies within the framework of rising environmental concern

brazilian development in long term perspective brazil is now the eighth largest market economy in the world its 1979 per capita income of over 1 500 in current dollars its sophisticated industrial structure and its recent dynamism combine to give it a prominent place among the advanced developing countries not surprisingly recent brazilian experience has been an important subject for the analysis of economic development not all of it uncritical such a focus on the brazilian miracle and its aftermath is too limited brazilian growth and industrialization have a long history as do the regional and personal income inequalities that today increasingly command attention understanding the origins of brazilian growth in the nineteenth century export economy and the subsequent patterns of import substitution will not yield better rules for short term debt management or monetary policy but the longer perspective makes clear that sustained economic development requires more than following the dictates of the international market and getting prices right indeed it may on occasion involve rejecting such signals i shall interpret four significant episodes

the origins and development of the northeast asian political economy industrial sectors product cycles and political consequences theories of the product cycle hegemony and the world system are used to analyze the creation and development of the northeast asian political economy in this century japan south korea and taiwan have each developed in a particular relationship with the others the three taken together form a hierarchical constantly interacting political economic unit during the period of colonial rule japan was unique in building an imperial economic unit marked by a strong role for the state whether in tokyo or taipei by a tight integral unking of all three nations into a communications and transport network running toward the metropole and by a strategy of both using the colonies for agricultural surpluses and then locating industries there after 1945 a diffuse american hegemony replaced japan s unilateral system but elements of the prewar model have survived strong states direct economic development in south korea and taiwan here termed bureaucratic authoritarian industrializing regimes both countries are receptacles for japan s declining industries and both countries develop in tandem if in competition with each other the most recent export led competition has seen taiwan succeed where south korea has temporarily failed leaving seoul in an export led trap burdened with rapidly increasing external debt taiwan furthermore has industrialized relatively free of social disruption whereas korean society resisted its transformation at japanese hands and remains more rebellious today there can be one japan and one taiwan but not two or many of either in the world economy

the demand for gasoline abstract sufficient time must be allowed to elapse to assess fully the response of gasoline demand to price changes hitherto empirical work on the subject has generally not examined the period beyond 1975 moreover the extant time series studies concentrate almost exclusively on the usa this study extends both the observation period and the country coverage a vehicle stock adjustment model is estimated via its reduced form without explicit consideration of the vehicle stock itself however the estimation procedure incorporates the structure by way of constraints on the parameters cross section analysis offers additional evidence concerning the truly long run price elasticity the results suggest that there is no need to resort to elaborate models to explain adequately gasoline demand gasoline demand exhibits a long run price elasticity near unity with time lags exceeding six years while there is tentative evidence that the duration of these lags is not fixed

formal schooling and workforce participation in a rapidly developing economy evidence from compulsory junior high school in taiwan abstract using 18 consecutive household surveys this study explores the impact of taiwan s extension of tuition free education from 6 to 9 years upon schooling and labor market outcomes participation sector class of activity and work income i estimate upward shifts relative to preexisting trends of more than 0 4 years of education for males and 0 25 years for females in the first six cohorts affected by compulsory junior high schooling utilizing inter cohort variation within an instrumental variables iv strategy i find larger effects of schooling on females workforce participation and total earnings even controlling for selection

the political economy of income distribution in south korea the impact of the state s industrialization policies abstract a number of previous studies of economic growth and income distribution in south korea based largely on 1960s data concluded that south korea was an exception to kuznets inverse u pattern of income inequality also it was regarded as an exception to the usual negative consequences predicted by dependency theory for an economy so dependent on foreign capital and world markets this author presents more recent data for the 1970s and early 1980s in order to support his claim that the trend toward income equality that appeared in the 1960s was reversed in the 1970s the author develops a thesis that stresses the role of the state in shaping the korean political economy he argues that it has been the strong south korean developmentalist state in firm control of both domestic and foreign capital and its export oriented industrialization policies that have been the principal determinant of the pattern of income distribution he contests the usual explanation related to the level of economic development or external dependency per se

the uk transport carbon model an integrated life cycle approach to explore low carbon futures abstract current debate focuses on the need for the transport sector to contribute to more ambitious carbon emission reduction targets in the uk various macro economic and energy system wide top down models are used to explore the potential for energy demand and carbon emissions reduction in the transport sector these models can lack the bottom up sectoral detail needed to simulate the effects of integrated demand and supply side policy strategies to reduce emissions bridging the gap between short term forecasting and long term scenario models this paper introduces a newly developed strategic transport energy emissions and environmental impacts model the uk transport carbon model uktcm the uktcm covers the range of transport energy environment issues from socio economic and policy influences on energy demand reduction through to life cycle carbon emissions and external costs the model is demonstrated in this paper by presenting the results of three single policies and one policy package scenario limitations of the model are also discussed developed under the auspices of the uk energy research centre ukerc the uktcm can be used to develop transport policy scenarios that explore the full range of technological fiscal regulatory and behavioural change policy interventions to meet uk climate change and energy security goals

third world indebted industrialization international finance and state capitalism in mexico brazil algeria and south korea the past fifteen years have seen two important developments in the international economic system the rapid industrialization of many less developed countries ldcs and their increasing indebtedness to private financial institutions massive bank loans have been used to fund industrial growth in many ldcs international financial markets have replaced multinational corporations as the third world s most important source of private foreign capital in four major borrowing countries mexico brazil algeria and south korea the process of indebted industrialization has its roots in the internationalization of finance the increasing role of the state and the use of funds raised on the international capital markets to finance industrial development the results include rapid expansions of ldc industrial production and ldc exports of manufactured products as well as the formation of an implicit partnership between private financial institutions and state capitalist elites in the third world

taxation of petroleum products theory and empirical evidence the domestic taxation of petroleum products is an important source of revenue in most countries however there is a wide variation of tax rates on petroleum products across countries which cannot be explained by economic theory alone this paper surveys different considerations advanced for taxing petroleum and presents petroleum tax rate data in 120 countries

the mouse that roared taiwan s management of trade relations with the united states this analysis seeks to contribute to the growing literature on the subject of the weak in the world of the strong it examines taiwan s attempts to cope with u s commerical pressure in view of its mounting bilateral trade surplus in the recent years 10 6 billion in 1985 and 6 2 billion in the first half of 1986 taiwan s past ability to achieve relatively favorable outcomes in its commerical dealings with the united states is explained at two levels at the more micro level of bargaining tactics used by the weak in managing the strong attention is directed to taiwan s resort to 1 problem redefinition 2 damage limitation 3 exploring loopholes 4 linkage politics and 5 transnational coalitions these measures are complemented by more long term and basic economic adaptation termed positive adjustment at the more macro level two prerequisites suggested by yoffie 1983 for successful adaptation in a protectionist and competitive economic environment are discussed 1 taiwan s policy

world transport energy demand modelling methodology and elasticities abstract this paper presents the international energy agency s iea approach of modelling transport energy demand fuel demand which is not a demand per se is derived whenever possible from the economic activity in the transport sector and not estimated directly ie using one equation or simultaneous equation system in general the transport models employ a two step approach in the first step transport activity the sector s relevant energy service is estimated econometrically in the second step the transport activity projections are then combined with estimates of efficiency improvements car turnover rates and diesel gasoline penetration assumptions in order to arrive at projections of fuel demand the principal advantages of this approach are that the relevant energy services are modelled and that for model simulation efficiency improvements can be dealt with explicitly the effectiveness of economic instruments is a function of the reaction of consumers and businesses to income and price changes an in depth understanding of income and price elasticities of transport demand and transport energy demand is important in order to be able to assess the effectiveness of policies considered the paper also shows the underlying long term income and price elasticities for oecd and non oecd regions

agricultural development and the size distribution of personal income the tropical african experience abstract we use data from a sample of countries in tropical africa to investigate the relationship between relative income and growth rate of the agricultural sector and income inequality we find that an increase in the income of the agricultural sector relative to that of the non agricultural sector decreases income inequality the growth rate of agricultural production and the proportion of the labor force in the non agricultural sector were also found to be negatively correlated with income inequality

the elasticity of substitution in india s manufacturing sector abstract using cross section data and the translog cost function this paper examines the substitution possibilities between capital and materials and labor and materials since raw materials might be used to overcome the bottlenecks caused by shortages of physical capital and skilled labor three significant conclusions are a since materials are substitutable for both capital and labor to a considerable extent capital and skilled labor may not be a binding constraint on growth agricultural materials expansion may substitute for these inputs and lead to expansion in the industrial sector b fixed proportion models are not warranted in india without modification and c separability tests showed that materials must be included in the production function

openness and wage inequality in developing countries the latin american challenge to east asian conventional wisdom the experience of east asia in the 1960s and 1970s supports the theory that greater openness to trade tends to narrow the wage gap between skilled and unskilled workers in developing countries in latin america since the mid 1980s however increased openness has widened wage differentials this conflict of evidence is probably not the result of differences between east asia and latin america instead the conflict is probably the result of differences between the 1960s and the 1980s specifically the entry of china into the world market and perhaps the advent of new technology biased against unskilled workers

modelling future private car energy demand in ireland abstract targeted measures influencing vehicle technology are increasingly a tool of energy policy makers within the eu as a means of meeting energy efficiency renewable energy climate change and energy security goals this paper develops the modelling capacity for analysing and evaluating such legislation with a focus on private car energy demand we populate a baseline car stock and car activity model for ireland to 2025 using historical car stock data the model takes account of the lifetime survival profile of different car types the trends in vehicle activity over the fleet and the fuel price and income elasticities of new car sales and total fleet activity the impacts of many policy alternatives may only be simulated by such a bottom up approach which can aid policy development and evaluation the level of detail achieved provides specific insights into the technological drivers of energy consumption thus aiding planning for meeting climate targets this paper focuses on the methodology and baseline scenario baseline results for ireland forecast a decline in private car energy demand growth 0 2 compared with 4 in the period 2000 2008 caused by the relative growth in fleet efficiency compared with activity

inequality democracy and institutions a critical review of recent research this paper surveys the theoretical and empirical literature on the effect of economic and political inequality on institutions the current understanding suggests that unequal societies develop exploitative and inefficient institutions empirical research which is scant and has mainly concentrated at cross national level supports to some extent the existence of an inverse relationship between inequality and institutions but more analysis is needed future empirical research should undertake country state and micro level analysis which are a necessary complement to aggregate level studies the effect of inequality could also take place indirectly through the influence of inequality on democratization

the state and foreign investment the cases of taiwan and singapore the influence of a host state on direct foreign investment attracts the attention of scholars much less than do the constraints of the latter on the former this study addresses the impact of state regulatory policies on the roles of inward foreign investment in taiwan and singapore s manufacturing sector the similarities between the two small asian open economies are first discussed the different roles played by the foreign investors in their economies are then compared a review of the literature in orthodox theories and radical points of view reveals several possible explanatory variables for such differences through the logic of the most similar systems design or method of difference some seemingly plausible factors are ruled out due to their similarities in the two chosen entities it is found that some pull factors such as geographic location colonial legacy external political environment and indigenous industrial capacity and conversion factors such as state policies toward foreign in

divorce comes at a price an ex ante welfare analysis of ownership unbundling of the distribution and commercial companies in the dutch energy sector vertical unbundling in the electricity sector is a hot political topic in the european union the european commission has decided that the ownership unbundling of transmission networks from other stages in the value chain is the most effective way to ensure fair network access and infrastructure investment while this european unbundling debate has not ended yet and most countries still do not have an independent transmission system operator tso the dutch government has already taken one step further in 2008 it decided that distribution companies should be completely separated from commercial activities that are part of the same holding generation trade and supply this governmental decision has been fiercely debated although the goal is to improve competition as well as security of supply these benefits are uncertain nevertheless it is certain that ownership unbundling comes at a cost in this paper we present an ex ante cost benefit analysis of the dutch unbundling act we conclude that it is unlikely that this act is welfare enhancing divorce comes at a price

changing labor market conditions and economic development in hong kong the republic of korea singapore and taiwan china in the newly industrializing economies nies of hong kong the republic of korea singapore and taiwan china the entire working population has benefited from labor market institutions the east asian nies attained and maintained generally full employment improved their job mixes raised real earnings and lowered their rates of poverty this article reaches two principal conclusions first labor market conditions continued to improve in all four economies in the 1980s at rates remarkably similar to their rates of aggregate economic growth second labor market repression was not a major factor in the growth experiences of these economies in the 1980s it thus appears that labor market repression is neither necessary nor desirable for outward oriented economic development

wage setting institutions and economic growth abstract wage setting institutions in several asian and latin american economies are compared and contrasted the asian economies have relied more on market wage determination whereas the latin american economies have encouraged institutions which push wages in key sectors up above market clearing levels market wage determination combined with exportled growth has resulted in rapidly rising real wages in the context of full employment in the asian

projection of future transport energy demand of thailand the objective of this study is to project transport energy consumption in thailand for the next 20 years the study develops log linear regression models and feed forward neural network models using the as independent variables national gross domestic product population and the numbers of registered vehicles the models are based on 20 year historical data between years 1989 and 2008 and are used to project the trends in future transport energy consumption for years 2010 2030 the final log linear models include only gross domestic product since all independent variables are highly correlated it was found that the projection results of this study were in the range of 54 84 59 05 million tonnes of oil equivalent 2 5 times the 2008 consumption the projected demand is only 61 65 of that predicted in a previous study which used the leap model this major discrepancy in transport energy demand projections suggests that projects related to this key indicator should take into account alternative projections because these numbers greatly affect plans policies and budget allocation for national energy management

a reapraisal of the capital goods sector in hong kong the case for free trade abstract this paper was provoked by an earlier one by fransman 1982 in which he examined the functioning of the capital goods sector in hong kong and came to the conclusion that it needed special protection by the government to allow it to reap the benefits of externalities essential for increasing its design and production capabilities statistical evidence is provided indicating that the capital goods sector as conventionally defined is prospering even following fransman 1982 and equating the capital goods sector with the machine producing sector the latest survey of production indicates considerable dynamism his case for infant industry protection is further weakened by consideration of the nature of the particular industrial structure of hong kong and the quality of the social relations that prevail between entrepreneurs it is argued that the costs of singling out the capital goods sector for special treatment in terms of the impact of the highly competitive export oriented manufacturing sector are likely to be high while the theoretical benefits from externalities are liable to be illusory in a small economy

distributed generation and distribution market diversity in europe the unbundling of the electricity power system will play a key role on the deployment of distributed generation dg in european distribution systems evolving towards smart grids the present paper firstly reviews the relevant european union eu regulatory framework specific attention is paid to the concept of unbundling of power distribution sector in europe afterwards the focus is on the current state of penetration of dg technologies in the eu member states and the corresponding interrelations with distribution features a comparison between the unbundling of the distribution and supply markets using econometric indicators such as the herfindahl hirschmann ihh and the shannon wiener isw indices is then presented finally a comparative analysis between these indices and the current level of penetration of distributed generation in most eu is shown policy recommendations conclude the paper

export led development labour market conditions and the distribution of income the case of singapore the newly industrialising countries nics of east asia have attracted considerable attention in recent years and the impressive economic performance of the gang of four hong kong taiwan singapore and south korea in particular has played an important part in what little 1982 describes as the resurgence of neo classical economics in development thinking the experience of these outward looking export oriented economies is contrasted with the record of the more inward looking import substituting policies adopted by many other less developed countries ldcs and is interpreted as confirmation of the neoclassical thesis that economies which permit the market mechanism to establish a structure of equilibrium prices and incentives can expand in accordance with their comparative advantage generating significant employment gains rapid economic growth and improvements in income distribution the employment gains represent the predictable consequences of the expansion of labour intensive manufactured exports as little 1981 notes in his comparative study of south korea taiwan hong kong and singapore the major lesson is that labour intensive export oriented policies were the prime cause of an extremely rapid and labour intensive industrialisation p 42 the employment intensity of the export oriented industrialisation eoi strategy is in turn seen as the central factor behind improvements in income distribution thus balassa 1982 argues that gains in employment may also be obtained as exports increase the demand for labour and thereby improve income distribution p 59 fields 1984 reiterates the point quite simply if everyone in the labour force is employed at a market clearing wage inequality is less than if some are employed at higher than market clearing wages and others are unem ployed and earn nothing p 81 minimum government intervention has facilitated the efficient operation of the market fields 1984 for example regards the difference in wage setting processes supply and demand in the east asian nics institutional wage

the limits of human development and the use of energy and natural resources the development of nations is an unquestionable requirement a lot of challenges concerning health education and economy are present a discussion on these development models has occupied the minds of decision makers in recent years when energy supply and demand is considered the situation becomes critical and the crucial question is how to improve the quality of life of developing countries based on available models of development that are related to the life style of developed countries for which the necessary use and waste of energy are present how much energy is essential to humanity for not so as to endangering the survival conditions of future generations the human development index hdi establishes the relationship among energy use economic growth and social growth here it can be seen that 75 of the world population has a significant energy consumption potential this is a strong reason to consider that the sustainable development concepts on energy policies are strategic to the future of the planet this paper deals with the importance of seeking alternative development models for human development balance natural resources conservation and environment through rational energy use concepts

stagnation income distribution and monopoly power the deceleration in the rate of industrial growth in the indian economy since the middlesixties initially interpreted by some as a temporary downward deviation from trend hasnow come to be generally accepted as reflecting long run tendencies towards stagnation several explanations for these tendencies have been offered bhagwati and desai 1970 and bhagwati and srinivasan 1975 have focused on inefficiencies and the misallocationof resources arising from industrial policies pursued by the government others chakravarty 1974 raj 1976 and vaidyanathan 1974 among them have emphasisedthe sluggishness of agricultural growth which is alleged to have retarded industrial growthby limiting markets and the supply of wage goods and raw materials a third view reflectedin srinivasan and narayana 1977 for example has put the blame on a slackening of invest ment demand due to lower public investment but does not explain why public investmentfell or why its fall restrained industrial growth finally there is the explanation put forthin bagchi 1970 1975 1982 in nayyar 1978 and in parts of mitra 1977 that inequali ties in income distribution have resulted in a limited demand for industrial goods reducedincentives for investment and therefore reduced growth this view seems to suggest apositive relation between growth and income equality which is opposed to the generallyaccepted idea derived from cambridge growth models that higher growth requires greaterinequality the purpose of this paper is to examine the last explanation by considering the inter action between growth and income distribution in an underdeveloped economy with thehelp of a simple macroeconomic model the model is a stylisation of the indian economy so that we will be able to use the model to assess the argument that a deceleration in therate of growth of the indian industrial economy could have been caused by an unequaldistribution of income the argument will not be made that this income distributional con straint is the binding constraint on industrial growth the model will merely examine theinternal consistency of the argument that a bad income distribution could explain stagnation in the sense of reduced growth and show that in the indian context as in other similarcontexts this argument can be put forward in explaining stagnation our argument is first presented with a highly simplified schematisation of the indianeconomy which we shall call the basic model the economy modelled produces only one

an analysis of gasoline demand elasticities at the national and local levels in mexico abstract the majority of evidence on gasoline demand elasticities is derived from models based on national data since the largest growth in population is now taking place in cities in the developing world it is important that we understand whether this national evidence is applicable to demand conditions at the local level the aim of this paper is to estimate and compare gasoline per vehicle demand elasticities at the national and local levels in mexico national elasticities with respect to price income vehicle stock and metro fares are estimated using both a time series cointegration model and a panel gmm model for mexican states estimates for mexico city are derived by modifying national estimates according to mode shares as suggested by graham and glaister 2006 and by estimating a panel within groups model with data aggregated by borough although all models agree on the sign of the elasticities the magnitudes differ greatly elasticities change over time and differ between the national and local levels with smaller price responses in mexico city in general price elasticities are smaller than those reported in the gasoline demand surveys a pattern previously found in developing countries the fact that income and vehicle stock elasticities increase over time may suggest that vehicles are being used more intensively in recent years and that mexico city residents are purchasing larger vehicles elasticities with respect to metro fares are negligible which suggests little substitution between modes finally the fact that fuel efficiency elasticities are smaller than vehicle stock elasticities suggests that vehicle stock size rather than its composition has a larger impact on gasoline consumption in mexico city

social polarization industrialization and fiscal instability theory and evidence this paper is motivated by an important puzzle that arises from the contrasting macroeconomic experience across developing regions in the recent decades in sharp contrast to east asia the fiscal policies in much of latin america and sub saharan africa are characterized by large fiscal deficits and volatilities of fiscal outcomes in order to address both large deficits and volatile fiscal outcomes we develop a simple model of endogenous fiscal policy in which government spending is strategically determined by heterogeneous policymakers in a dynamic game in an economy that is highly polarized due to unequal income distribution a larger fiscal deficit results and the intertemporal fiscal policy path becomes more volatile it is because the polarization of preference leads a policymaker representing each sector to spend more for her favorite sector collectively contributing to large deficits this polarization effect implies that a shock to tax revenue is translated into a more than proportional change in spending econometric evidence provides support for these predictions countries that have suffered from the greatest fiscal instability are those with highly polarized economic societies as measured by indicators of income inequality

fuel consumption in road transport a comparative study of china and oecd countries abstract energy conservation and emissions reduction have been the focus of the road transport sector due to its energy intensive and air pollution intensive nature it also embodies the imprints of human technological progress this paper compares the energy consumption of the road transport sector in china and oecd countries we used time series and panel data co integration analysis error correction model and dynamic model to study the impacts of the major influencing factors such as income income structure urbanization price and technological advancement on gasoline and diesel consumption in road transport overall china s fuel consumption is influenced mainly by investment government expenditure and demographic changes such as urbanization while the fuel consumption of oecd countries is mainly driven by household final consumption expenditure in the short run and from a dynamic perspective china s fuel consumption is less influenced by its historical consumption than current influencing factors while that of oecd countries is more affected by historical fuel consumption based on the analysis and findings of this study some policy implications are proposed

revisiting electricity liberalization and quality of service empirical evidence from new zealand abstractwhat effect does the firm structure have on the quality of service delivered by networks and infrastructure industries we answer this question by empirically assessing the impacts of complete vertical separation such as ownership unbundling on the quality of service delivered by a liberalized network industry electricity distribution utilities in new zealand are considered for this purpose and are analysed using panel data econometrics the results show robust evidence that ownership unbundling contributed to a fall in the duration and frequency of supply interruptions in electricity distribution however the results also show that unbundling has no effect on reducing distribution network losses these results overall highlight the nonsimple impacts of ownership unbundling on the quality of electricity distribution we suggest that the quality of service may largely improve when considered in the economic regulation of electricity networks than completely relying on specific reform measures

wage differentials in brazil theory and evidence the investigation of wage determination and wage differentials in developing countries has concentrated on the effects of human capital and different sources of segmentation associated with institutional arrangements and structural characteristics on earnings in this article we use micro data for brazil for the 1980s and 1990s to test several competitive theories and models with segmentation explained by efficiency wages we find that unmeasured abilities and efficiency wage models seem to play a role in wage determination while compensating differentials and transitory difference theories were found to be irrelevant to wages formation

long term outlook of energy use and co2 emissions from transport in central and eastern europe a forecast of transport activity energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions from transportation carried out under business as usual economic assumptions is presented for the 10 countries of central and eastern europe that have acquired the status of accession countries to the european union energy demand is projected under considerations of the dynamic evolution of transport modes and their use the evolution of automotive fuel prices which are assumed to gradually converge with western european price levels within the current decade and assumptions on efficiency improvements in all transport modes according to current technological trends and european regulations the results showing transportation energy demand to double and co2 emissions to be 70 higher in 2030 compared to 2000 are compared with other published forecasts and discussed with a view to potential future energy and environmental impacts in these countries outlining major policy implications r 2002 elsevier science ltd all rights reserved

employment income distribution and economic growth in seven small open economies resurgent interest has been manifested among development economists in trickle down i e the view that the more rapid the rate of economic growth the more rapid the improvement in employment and income distribution throughout this paper the term income distribution will refer to the location and dispersion of the pattern of incomes i e to absolute incomes and poverty and to relative income inequality empirical evidence supports trickle down in some cases but the evidence is contrary to trickle down in others the evidence from my own study of six countries experiences2 is summarised in tables i and 2

the techno bureaucratic elite and the entrepreneurial state in dependent industrialization a common characteristic of dependent industrializing countries is a substantial direct entrepreneurial role for the state one explanation for this is that in dependent industrializing countries the system of allocation and production has been captured by a key group the techno bureaucratic elite the argument is that this elite lends its political support to the state in return for the state substituting as entrepreneur in the industrialization process in this article we analyze the theoretical implications of this explanation of the entrepreneurial state a formal model is constructed of the relationship between state entrepreneurship material consequences for the techno bureaucratic elite and important domestic and international constraints we then use deductive methods to analyze the logic of state entrepreneurship among other things we show how cyclical fluctuations in the global economy are reflected in constantly changing levels of state entrepreneurship and we investigate the consequences of alternative kinds of dependency syndromes for histories of entrepreneurial substitution and for streams of benefits to the techno bureaucratic elite it is demonstrated that there is an inverse relationship between the tendencies to reach stable levels of state entrepreneurship and the long term potential for economic growth

validating energy oriented cge models although cge models have received heavy usage they are often criticized as being insufficiently validated key parameters are often not econometrically estimated and the performance of the model as a whole is rarely checked against historical outcomes as a consequence questions frequently arise as to how much faith one can put in cge results in this paper we employ a novel approach to the validation of a widely utilized global cge model gtap e by comparing the variance of model generated petroleum price distributions driven by historical demand and supply shocks to the model with observed five year moving average price distributions we conclude that energy demand in gtap e is far too price elastic over this time frame after incorporating the latest econometric estimates of energy demand and supply elasticities we revisit the validation question and find the model to perform more satisfactorily as a further check we compare a deterministic global general equilibrium simulation based on historical realizations over the 2001 2006 period during which petroleum prices rose sharply along with growing global energy demands as anticipated by the stochastic simulations the revised model parameters perform much better than the original gtap e parameters in this global general equilibrium context

empirical assessment of the determinants of road energy demand in greece this paper attempts to cast light on the determinants of road energy demand in greece for this purpose we used cointegration techniques and vector autoregression var analysis in order to capture short run and long run dynamics for gasoline and diesel demand respectively from the empirical analysis that covers the period 1978 2003 we find that in the long run gasoline energy demand appears to be price and income inelastic while diesel demand appears to be price inelastic and income elastic we also found that the absence of close substitutes in the road sector denotes the low level of energy switching in greece

learning and the capital goods sector under free trade the case of hongkong abstract attention is focused on technological change and attendant learning processes in the more industrialized third world countries the importance of relatively simple learning processes is stressed and the conditions necessary for facilitating more complex forms of learning particularly protection and promotion are examined here it is shown that the capital goods sector is of central importance the case study material deals with the machine producing sector in hong kong chosen as the representative case of free trade and minimal government intervention and comparison is made with learning processes in a number of other more industrialized third world countries including india argentina and taiwan in the final section the implications of the discussion of learning for theories and techniques of investment allocation including social cost benefit analysis the effective rate of protection and the related domestic cost of foreign exchange are examined

international competitiveness technical change and the state the machine tool industry in taiwan and japan abstract it is widely accepted that the growth performance of japan and the asian newly industrialized countries hong kong singapore south korea and taiwan is partly the result of the international competitiveness they have achieved in a number of export industries it remains however to explain how this competitiveness was achieved in the first part of the paper an attempt at such an explanation based on the theory of comparative advantage is critically examined it is argued that while this explanation does have some explanatory power it does not deal adequately with a the role of technical and productivity change b the causal mechanisms underlying economic growth and c the role of the state the rest of the paper examines the case of machine tools in taiwan and japan showing the importance of these three factors as well as a number of others as determinants of international competitiveness the paper ends with a discussion of policy dilemmas relating to international competitiveness in the taiwanese machine toot industry

institutional reform and technological practice the case of electricity this article proposes a framework for categorizing possible interrelations between technological and institutional change and applies this framework to the case of the restructuring of the electricity sector it is argued that there is a need for coherence between institutions and technological practice so as to safeguard the satisfactory functioning of electricity infrastructure the identification of possible incoherences between institutions and technological practice allows for a better understanding of the potential drivers for change and the evolutionary processes of which they may be part this article attempts to elaborate the nature of this co evolution in somewhat more detail using specific levels of analysis that are exemplified in a four level model in the case of the restructuring of the electricity sector the institutional framework has changed from a public utility oriented towards a market oriented system however the technological practice remained unchanged a system oriented approach that relies on centralized planning control and operation this discrepancy between institutions and technological practice leads to significant frictions in the functioning of the electricity sector but it also offers opportunities for innovation in order to make liberalization a success it might be necessary to stimulate certain technical developments i e distributed generation and intelligent networks

traders teachers and tyrants democracy globalization and public investment in education this article develops a model of the redistributive political economy of education spending focusing on the role of democracy and economic openness in determining the provision of education i argue that democratization should be associated with higher levels of public education spending lower private education spending and a shift from tertiary education spending toward primary education spending furthermore i argue that integration with the international economy should lead to higher public education spending conditioned on regime type and income and should push the balance between tertiary and primary education toward states particular comparative advantages these propositions are tested on a data set of more than one hundred states from 1960 to 2000 using a variety of panel data techniques including instruments for democracy the logic of the causal mechanism developed in the formal model is also tested on a number of case histories including the philippines which shows great variation in democracy and openness and india and malaysia which constitute unusual cases that lie off the diagonal of open democracies and autarkic autocracies the author would like to thank beth simmons torben iversen michael hiscox jeffry frieden jim alt teri caraway john freeman jane gingrich david samuels w phillips shively mark kayser john ahlquist and michael kellerman for highly useful comments and criticisms in addition i thank the current and past editors lou pauly emanuel adler david stasavage and lisa martin and three anonymous reviewers for their suggestions

a reversal of fortune for korean women explaining the 1983 upward turn in relative earnings between 1971 and 1983 korea s mean gender earnings ration remained virtually stagnant at 47 percent but after 1983 the earnings ration took a distinct turn upward in other words not until after 1983 did korean women make any progress in closing the gender earnings gap when controlling for education the analysis reveals a surprising drop in relative earning across education groups in the 1970s and early 1980s and a recover thereafter the author uses an extremely rich set of microdata suitable for decomposition to explain the trends in korea s earnings differential results indicate that most of the 1983 reversal is attributable to a strong compression in market returns to skills and to narrowing gender differences in education and experience the widening gender earnings differential across education groups before 1983 resulted primarily from a growing gender gap in unobserved characteristics growing gender differences in unmeasured ability or increased wage discrimination could explain this trend after 1983 women with high school education or less benefit primarily from a dramatic narrowing in the economy s distribution of market payoffs to skills enough for women to begin to catch up to men relative earnings a compression in the return to skills helped only some groups women with college educations did not experience increased benefits from changes in the market payoff to skills stricter enforcement of korea s equal pay for equal work provision could help reduce the outright discrimination against women workers that might be the underlying problem by boosting the potential of korea s female labor force stronger enforcement of korea s equal opportunity provisions would improve the country s economic productivity

the effect on income distribution of development the growth rate and economic strategy abstract an analysis of cross section and time series data for 83 countries confirms some and contradicts other work on income distribution new findings include a dualistic socio political system is highly unfavorable for equality neither the extent of government intervention in the economy nor the rate of manufactured exports are systematically related to income distribution the analysis confirms that there is no systematic relationship between equality and the rate of economic growth educational participation and a reduction in the share of primary exports in gdp are both favorable for equality there is some support for the kuznets hypothesis that inequality increases as per capita income rises to about 400 and then declines with further income increase but the empirical support is not strong and may be weakening over time these findings lead to more optimistic conclusions then other work that rapid growth in a mixed economy is quite consistent with unchanged or even improved income distribution even at early stages of development

review of key international demand elasticities for major industrializing economies abstract this paper conducts a selective review of various estimates for energy demand responses focused specially upon lower income industrializing economies rather than richer mature nations it emphasizes recent trends from empirical studies that have been published after 2000 emphasis is placed on the five major emerging or transitional economies in brazil china india mexico and russia although other important nations like chile and south korea are also discussed when studies are available the review focuses attention on the long run responses to changes in prices and income after capital stock turnover has been completed the terminology often refers to elasticities or the percentage change in energy use divided by the percentage change in price or income holding constant all other factors that could influence energy use decisions estimates cover petroleum products natural gas and electricity although the available studies often ignore coal they also include the economy wide impacts real gdp to price changes most studies have focused upon household and transportation use of liquid fuels many fewer studies have investigated fuels used by industry or commerce or for electric generation based upon the available estimates price and income elasticities for liquid fuels are generally less than one unity for many countries and sectors except for the long run income effect for transportation purposes which can range widely by country between 0 24 and 1 75 while averaging 0 94 for all countries

growth distribution trade offs the role of capacity utilisation previous empirical studies of the impact of economic growth on income distribution have consistently found statistically insignificant impact this paper empirically reexamines this impact for a cross section of thirty nine advanced and developing countries focusing on a new critical factor i e the presence or absence of economic slack with this factor included growth becomes significantly unequalizing in a capital taut economy while the presence of slack capacity plays a significantly equalizing role this suggests that the insignificant finding of previous studies stems from an averaging out of these two opposite impacts when this factor is omitted copyright 1988 by oxford university press

openness and wage inequality in developing countries the experience of east asia in the 1960s and 1970s supports the theory that greater openness to trade tends to narrow the wage gap between skilled and unskilled workers in developing countries in latin america since the mid 1980s however increased openness has widened wage differentials this conflict of evidence is probably not the result of differences between east asia and latin america instead the conflict is probably the result of differences between the 1960s and the 1980s specifically the entry of china into the world market and perhaps the advent of new technology biased against unskilled workers

the macroeconomics of trade liberalization abstract this paper analyzes the short run macroeconomic consequences of trade liberalization in ldcs it is shown that linkages between the tradables and nontradables sectors the effect of imported inputs on the economy s productive structure and certain patterns of factor substitution can go a long way toward explaining the perverse contractionary effects frequently seen in liberalization programs

the economics of special interest politics the case of the tariff this paper investigates the interaction of politicians and special interest lobbies the goal is to model the equilibrium levels of redistributive policies such as taxes subsidies tariffs and regulatory decisions the model is applied throughout to the setting of tariffs by contributing to political campaigns special interest lobbies generate economic returns higher tariffs generate revenue for import competing industries through higher product prices higher milk support prices raise dairy farm income and so forth the lobby invests to maximize these net economic returns in evaluating their chances of election politicians weigh the favorable effects of special interest money against the unfavorable association with the lobby and the social cost of the redistributive policy section i explores the lobby s problem it describes a formalization of mancur olson s discussion of the voluntary provision of public goods and optimal contributions by lobbies to political campaigns section ii describes determination of the equilibrium tariff positions of each politician in a political campaign

analysing gasoline demand elasticities a survey this paper is a survey of studies on gasoline demand although there are very many dxerent studies in this eld which sometimes appear to arrive at contradictory results we find that with proper stratification of studies by model and data type much of the contict turns to consensus in this survey we classtfy studies by data type and by ten d erent categories of model and with the exception of estimates on seasonal data which tend to be unstable and of certain inappropriate model formulations we find a fair degree of agreement concerning average short run and even long run income and price elasticities

can caricom countries replicate the singapore experience this article tries to ascertain whether caricom countries1 can replicate the economic success of singapore based on export oriented industrialisation whereas it is possible for caricom countries to increase exports of some manufactures to industrial countries the article contends that export oriented policies currently urged upon caricom countries will not effect a replication of the singapore experience in an age of growing protectionism rapid technological change an inadequate indigenous social infrastructure and existing labour relations in the region

the newly industrializing countries in the international system explanations of the growth of the newly industrializing countries nics by neoclassical economists and dependency theorists neglect the role of politics in shaping development strategies different social configurations state structures and ideas about development help explain the divergent policy choices made by the export oriented east asian nics korea and taiwan and the more inward looking countries of latin america particularly mexico and brazil these different strategic choices in turn account for variations in the patterns of external dependency that characterize countries in the two regions

a short term analytical model of the singapore economy abstract the rapid economic transformation of the newly industrializing countries has aroused considerable interest in their economic structure and functioning this paper contributes to the discussion by seeking to anatomise the singapore economy the economy s dynamism is reflected by the fact that although our model is a short term one capital investment both foreign and domestic plays a central role in it the model is also characterized by a novel specification of the export function the inclusion of non traded goods and of a sectorally segmented labor market and a fairly comprehensive treatment of the financial system the general equilibrium response of the model to various parameter shifts is investigated and the factors responsible for the economy s rapid development thereby elucidated

beneath the miracle labor subordination in the new asian industrialism this important study examines the dynamics of the remarkable economic transformation of south korea singapore taiwan and hong kong which has been based in large measure on the production of manufactured goods for export the competitive edge of these countries has in turn been rooted in the mobilization of a low cost disciplined and productive workforce this study seeks therefore to explain how east asian governments and employers have attempted to manage this workforce it also explores the extent to which workers are able to challenge management decisions and insert working class agendas into public policy beneath the miracle moves beyond current explanations for the weakness of east asian labor movements which emphasize confucianist culture material welfare gains and political repression it shows that the organizational capacity of workers has been more fundamentally undercut first by the nature of emergent east asian employment systems and second by the sequencing of developmental change with political controls preceding rapid industrialization and preempting political and union organization of the growing industrial workforce deyo undertakes an incisive cross national comparison of employment systems and explores anomalous situations such as that in hong kong where labor is politically weak even under minimal state controls and that in south korea where labor is in a stronger position despite far stricter regulation beneath the miracle offers a fresh and compelling comparative analysis of asian labor movements which could lead to a reassessment of many other developmental issues in east asia in his probing examination deyo provides an important and exciting contribution to the literature in this field

estimating the demand for gasoline in developing countries senegal abstract this paper estimates the aggregate demand for gasoline in senegal from 1970 to 2008 the long term and short term elasticities of demand with respect to gasoline prices and income are of paramount interest in this study in senegal rising food prices unemployment and shortage of electric supply are always associated with the spiking cost of world oil prices to understand the external shocks of world oil price and demand for gasoline in senegal this study tested a log linear model against the linear model of the demand for oil function with lagged dependent variables as an explanatory variable here the linear specification of the demand for oil is rejected in this study in favor of the log linear the natural log transformation is typical when using high frequency data and significantly reduces skewness and kurtosis generally in this study i found that short run elasticity is smaller than long run elasticity and gasoline demand is inelastic with respect to both price and income for both the short and long runs in senegal this is why researcher like moosa posits that this assertion can be rationalised on the grounds that oil is such an important commodity that does not have close substitutes at least for its uses 1998 p 3

explaining the growth performances of asian developing economies i development performance of developing countries no matter how it is measured the growth performance of the newly industrializing economies nies stands out that of the southeast asian group with the exception of the philippines and that of china is also impressive the south asian countries have done much less well with countries in sub saharan africa the caribbean and latin america even further behind the nies have also done well in two other crucial indicators of development income distribution and the quality of life in a study of 34 developing countries j riedel found that taiwan has the best income distribution surpassing even that of sri lanka while singapore south korea and hong kong are placed in the top third of the sample the nies also did extremely well in two measures of the quality of life the percentage of the age group enrolled in secondary education and the life expectancy at birth where they are well ahead of the other groups thus the nies have not only grown much faster than other economies but have also done better in bringing about a more equitable distribution of income and a better quality of life other measures of economic performance e g employment and wages growth equity performance e g reduction in the absolute level of poverty and quality of life performance e g the number of doctors per capita could have been used but they would have shown the same thing this finding is generally accepted however there is no generally accepted explanation for the different development performances this article will examine the claims of the major explanations and then propose a new way of looking at them in order to make the task manageable it will be limited to the developing countries of asia

an east asian model of economic development japan taiwan and south korea the east asian model of economic development focuses on 5 shared characteristics that seem significant in the contemporary economic development of japan taiwan and korea they are economic characteristics and include 1 high investment ratios 2 small public sectors 3 competitive labor markets 4 export expansion and 5 government intervention in the economy large and efficient investments in human capital and well developed capacities to absorb new technology are 2 other economic features shared by the three one could add overcrowding high man land ratios and scarcity of natural resources though these are handicaps rather than sources of economic strength it is possible however that virtue springs from necessity and that ample arable land or abundant natural resources mainly permit governments to postpone the difficult decisions needed to promote development rather than provide the wherewithal needed to finance development other noneconomic characteristics of the three such as ethnic and linguistic homogeneity relatively compact geography manageable population size and the confucian tradition have not been considered in the model even though they have undoubtedly influenced labor productivity savings behavior and other aspects of economic performance whether the east asian model ought to be followed depends on whether current and foreseeable circumstances are sufficiently like those faced by the three to justify using the same policies that they used applicability of the east asian model should also depend on whether the strategy employed by the three has been responsible for their economic success 2 aspects of the east asian models policy features are noteworthy 1 the policies typically work by influencing rather than replacing private market decisions and 2 the public expects government to intervene to influence economic growth

employment and economic growth in costa rica abstract costa rica s economic growth in the last 25 years has had favorable labor market and income distribution consequences overall employment growth kept pace with labor force growth the mix of jobs improved real wages rose and relative inequality and absolute poverty fell but during the economic crisis of 1980 1982 when real per capita income plummeted labor market conditions deteriorated markedly unemployment doubled employment composition worsened and real wages fell by 40 growth labor market conditions and income distribution

can the east asian model of development be generalized abstract export led growth has become increasingly popular among analysts and some governments as a development strategy besides contrasting its virtues to the distortions of the import substitution model popular through the 1960s advocates of the model frequently illustrate its merits by pointing to the remarkable success of its most prominent practitioners the east asian gang of four hong kong korea singapore and taiwan this study explores a possible limitation of the model known as the fallacy of composition while the model may work well if pursued by a limited number of countries it may break down if a large majority of developing countries seeks to pursue it at the same time because the resulting outpouring of manufactured exports might be more than western markets could absorb protectionist response might be the result of attempts to generalize the east asian export model of growth

determinants of taiwan s trade liberalization the case of a newly industrialized country abstract this paper attempts to account for the success of policy reform in taiwan s trade liberalization through an investigation of the periods 1986 92 and 1992 95 the objective is to undertake an empirical examination of haggard et al s the political feasibility of adjustment in developing countries development centre of the oecd oecd paris 1995 strategies for minimizing the political costs involved in implementing policy reforms empirical evidence supports the haggard et al arguments that is indirect compensation is used to facilitate the implementation of trade liberalization for downstream industries while the speed of trade liberalization within certain specific industries is comparatively slow furthermore in a democratic regime the pressure brought to bear by well organized domestic interest groups along with the pressure from international interest groups can strongly influence the pattern of trade liberalization policies

real wage rigidity and optimal commercial policy in less developed countries abstract this paper examines optimal commercial policy in an ldc in which there is a rigid real wage and imports consist of both final and non competitive intermediae inputs the nature of optimal commercial policy depends sensitively upon the composition of imports when export promotion is hampered by import quotas abroad or difficulties in extending export subsidies protection will often be optimal in economies that import intermediates but not in economics that import only final goods the results for the full optimization case establish that there is a general presumption trade policy should be biased in favor of export promotion although there are well defined conditions under which an import substituting regime is optimal

the politics of adjustment lessons from the imf s extended fund facility the international debt crisis has forced painful economic adjustments on the developing world in the short run it has forced governments to seek to correct payments imbalances through stabilization programs usually undertaken with conditional assistance from the international monetary fund imf the crisis has also revealed deeper weaknesses in many third world economies weaknesses demanding more basic reforms in the structure of incentives prices and investment

globalization and the decline of the welfare state in less developed countries why have trends in government welfare spending in developing countries diverged from those in developed countries i address this question by investigating the effects of capital and trade flows on government welfare spending in fifty three developing countries using an original measure of labor power in developing countries i test the links between international markets labor s political strength and the welfare state i argue that labor s collective action problems caused by large populations of low skilled and surplus workers offset labor s potential political gains from globalization i show that when the proportion of low skilled workers in a nation is high globalization will lead to a decline in welfare spending most significantly the results suggest that in nations where labor market institutions are not yet well developed government social welfare spending is constrained by international market forces

the developmental state government and singapore s economic development since 1960 abstract government interventionism is widely acknowledged to characterize less developed countries but consensus is lacking as to whether it promotes economic development and if so how the present article analyzes the nature of government involvement in the singapore model of economic development and emergence of a developmental state closely associated with this model it compares singapore s experience with south korea s and taiwan s where government also contributed to development success and with other asian countries where government failed to play a strong developmental role

the determination of union and non union wage rates abstract if in a partially unionised economy union workers force up their absolute wage rate how does this affect the wage paid in the non union sector this paper suggests a simple answer first in a small open economy a rise in the union wage will raise the non union wage secondly in a closed economy or one with some monopoly power in world trade a rise in the union wage seems likely to depress the non union wage

ownership unbundling in electricity distribution the case of the netherlands this paper addresses the merits of ownership unbundling of distribution networks as exemplified in the case of the netherlands in essence this problem concerns the question of whether the operation and management of electricity distribution networks in this country will evolve into a market driven commodity business or remain a genuine public utility task in order to deal with this problem a framework is developed that enables the classification of different institutional regimes depending on the nature of the institutional regime this case of the netherlands illustrates how certain aspects of the liberalisation of the electricity sector can become vitally important to the continuing process of restructuring

grassroots organizations and ngos in rural development opportunities with diminishing states and expanding markets abstract this article undertakes to deal systematically with nongovernment organizations ngos and grassroots organizations gros usually treated as a residual category ten levels for development decision making and action are identified in the tradition of central place theory three of these are considered local or grassroots because of their collective action possibilities then three sectors are delineated instead of the usual two ngos are part of the collective action sector which differs from the public and private sectors in theoretically consistent ways a careful distinction is made between institutions and organizations usually conflated in the literature examples of accelerated rural development through grassroots organizations and ngos are discussed form asia africa and latin america