can we use the energy intensity indicator to study decoupling in modern economies abstract the economic energy intensity of a country defined as the ratio between the energy consumed and the gross domestic product of a country is a widely adopted indicator of economic performance often applied to sustainability analysis the usefulness of this indicator has been challenged on the basis of the fact that the two variables making up this ratio are correlated this implies that when considered in isolation each one of these two variables energy consumption p c and gdp p c maps on to typologies of socio economic systems e g developed countries vs less developed countries however calculating their ratio produces an indicator which does not map on to any meaningful typology of economic system a number without an external referent this paper checks the validity of this criticism by looking at the economic energy intensity eei of 133 countries over the period 1960 2009 two approaches are used for this task 1 an analysis at a given point in time year 2009 after excluding countries with real gdp p c

the inequalities of public utility products in china from the perspective of the atkinson index abstract the chinese households make up approximately a quarter of the world s total compared with its size of population china s reserves of natural resources are relatively limited with the actual concerns about sustainable development in china we should pay more attention to the unequal distribution of energy which may result low efficiency and wasting of energy therefore how to best allocate the scarce public utility products pups for the household usage should be closely addressed in terms of equity and efficiency based on the micro household level data from crecs which investigated in 2013 in different scales city all over the country we measure the distribution of pups consumption quantitatively and evaluate the inequality of household income expenditures on electricity gas and water in the china s residential sector by using the atkinson index the results show that the atkinson index of households total pups consumption in medium scale city is equal to 0 0261 which is 83 0 higher than that of large scale city and 35 6 higher than that of small scale city it indicates that the inequalities of pups and income are greater in medium scale cities than in large scale and small scale cities considering the sustainability of pups we suggest further reform in china s public utility sectors the government should take more consideration on equality and efficiency of distribution and ensure that people have equal living standards especially for the low income households who serve as the main anchor for the sustainable development of china

stock price dynamics and firm size an empirical investigation we show that after controlling for the effects of bid ask spreads and trading volume the conditional future volatility of equity returns is negatively related to the level of stock price this leverage effect is stronger for small as compared to large firms we also document that while the essential characteristics of the relations between stock price dynamics and firm size are stable the strengths of the relationships appear to change over time a number of empirical studies have documented that stock volatility tends to fall subsequent to an increase in stock prices and rise following a decline in stock prices an observation commonly attributed to the leverage effect as explained by black 1976 leverage can induce future stock volatility to vary inversely with the stock price a fall in a firm s stock value relative to the market value of its debt causes a rise in its debt equity ratio and increases its stock volatility for example black 1976 and christie 1982 use individual securities and french schwert and stambaugh 1987 gallant rossi and tauchen 1990 schwert 1990 and nelson 1991 use market indices to provide evidence consistent with the leverage effect however these papers demonstrate a leverage effect either intertemporally or cross sectionally for some assets relatively little work has examined the intertemporal behavior of individual assets by taking into account conditional heteroskedasticity and changing expected returns in this paper we examine and characterize the cross sectional and temporal relations between stock price dynamics and firm size in particular we investigate the possibility of an inverse relation between future stock volatility and stock price and whether this effect varies across time and or across firms with different market capitalization our study uses the exponential garch egarch formulation of nelson 1991 as a model for the timeseries behavior of individual security returns nonparametric methods are

the intertemporal relation between the u s and japanese stock markets this paper finds a high correlation between the open to close returns for u s stocks in the previous trading day and the japanese equity market performance in the current period in contrast the japanese market has only a small impact on the u s return in the current period high correlations among open to close returns are a violation of the efflcient market hypothesis however in trading simulations the excess profits in japan vanish when transactions costs and transfer taxes are included the two largest stock markets in the world in terms of capitalization volume and shares listed are the tokyo stock exchange tse and the new york stock exchange nyse because tokyo is 14 hours ahead of new york there is an eight and one half hour difference between the close of the tse and open of the nyse since there is no overlap between the two markets traders or technical analysts may look to the tse as a predictor of market movement on the nyse and or examine changes on the nyse as indicators of tse performance as shown in figure 1 the tse opens at 7 00 p m eastern standard time est and closes at 1 00 a m est 1 the nyse opens at 11 30 p m japanese time 9 30 a m est and closes at 5 00 a m japanese time 4 00 p m est thus there is no common time interval in which both markets are open high correlations between the respective open to close returns are a violation of the efficient market hypothesis because public information about the performance in one market could be used to profitably trade in another market if the markets are efficient information about the open to close performance in one market for example the u s return in period t 1 will be fully reflected in the open price of the other market japan in period t for example since new information flows randomly into the market subsequent price changes should be random and the open to close returns in japan will be uncorrelated with the u s returns thus the u s performance should affect the open price in japan and the correlation between the open to close returns of the two markets will be zero early research on the synchronization among stock prices across countries grubel 1968 levy and sarnat 1970 agmon 1972 ripley 1973 lessard

the groves scheme profit sharing and moral hazard considered in this paper is the problem of intrafirm resource allocation two incentive schemes the groves scheme and profit sharing have been presented in the literature as ways of dealing with this problem under conditions of asymmetric information in the absence of effort aversion by division managers it has been shown that truth telling forms a dominant strategy equilibrium using the groves scheme and a nash equilibrium using profit sharing the analysis in this paper allows for the problem of moral hazard effort aversion as well as the problem of asymmetric information it is shown that for a deterministic case in which the headquarters seeks to maximize a measure of total profits gross of divisional rewards a reinterpreted groves scheme will yield a dominant equilibrium at this equilibrium the headquarters implicitly considers the division managers effort levels as a cost to the firm it is also shown that in the presence of moral hazard profit sharing will not generally yield a nash equilibrium furthermore profit sharing may encourage the transmission of misinformation by a division manager so as to change the division s capital allocation and reduce the effort level subsequently selected by the manager

energy in the development strategy of indian households the missing half there is a growing consensus that universalization of modern energy services is central to reducing major elements of poverty and hunger to increase literacy and education and to improve health care employment opportunities and lives of women and children in india as per 2011 census over 700 million people lack access to modern energy services for lighting cooking water pumping and other productive purposes devoid of these services people mostly women are forced to spend significant amounts of their time and effort on subsistence activities like firewood collection carrying these head load for miles and then burning these hard earned fuels inefficiently in traditional chullas these adversely affect the health and standard of living for women and act as a barrier to gender development here gender means women unless otherwise specified although the links between gender inequity poverty and energy deprivation have been studied by many not many practical solutions to the above problems have emerged the present paper explores the nexus among gender energy poverty highlights areas of gender concern and suggests actions we analyze how women from rural areas and low income households are at the receiving ends of energy poverty we then analyze the roles women as an important stakeholders in universalizing modern energy services we show how women self help groups can be a vital link in large scale diffusion of energy efficient and renewable technologies the paper concludes with policy pointers for sustainable development and gender empowerment through energy solutions

volatility linkages across three major equity markets a financial arbitrage approach abstract this paper investigates the high frequency behavior of us british and german stock market exuberance using an index provided by standard portfolio arbitrage relationships symmetric and asymmetric multivariate garch models are implemented to quantify international volatility linkages between january 1992 and april 2000 a shift in volatility transmission is detected from may 1997 onwards empirical analysis suggests that equity markets volatility modeling with exuberance indexes is more accurate than modeling with stock returns exuberance volatility comovements across countries are compared with the corresponding return comovements an interpretation of their discrepancy is provided in terms of bond and stock returns international covariation

conditional heteroscedasticity in time series of stock returns evidence and forecasts this article presents new evidence about the time series behavior of stock prices daily return series exhibit significant levels of second order dependence and they cannot be modeled as linear white noise processes a reasonable return generating process is empirically shown to be a first order autoregressive process with conditionally heteroskedastic innovations in particular generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic garch 1 1 processes fit to data very satisfactorily various out of sample forecasts of monthly return variances are generated and compared statistically forecasts based on the garch model are found to be superior copyright 1989 by the university of chicago

large dynamic covariance matrices second moments of asset returns are important for risk management and portfolio selection the problem of estimating second moments can be approached from two angles time series and the cross section in time series the key is to account for conditional heteroscedasticity a favored model is dynamic conditional correlation dcc derived from the arch garch family started by engle 1982 in the cross section the key is to correct in sample biases of sample covariance matrix eigenvalues a favored model is nonlinear shrinkage derived from random matrix theory rmt the present article marries these two strands of literature to deliver improved estimation of large dynamic covariance matrices supplementary material for this article is available online

volatility spillovers across international swap markets the us japan and the uk abstract this paper examines volatility spillovers across the three major international swap markets namely the us japan and the uk we apply a multivariate var egarch model by incorporating the slope of term structure and corporate spread variables to capture the time varying nature of swap spread volatility across countries our empirical findings show that the changes in the swap spreads are significantly influenced by the slope of term structure variable in all three currencies we find that the us swap market has a major influence on the japanese and uk swap markets but not vice versa we also find that reciprocal spillovers exist between japanese and the uk swap markets in almost all cases the degree of volatility persistence is fairly strong and in many cases we find asymmetric volatility spillovers across maturity and country

dynamic causality between the u s stock market the chinese stock market and the global gold market implications for individual investors diversification strategies this paper proposes a generalization of the prior var and egarch model to explore the linkage between returns and volatility transmissions in the u s stock market the chinese stock market and th

correlations in price changes and volatility across international stock markets the short run interdependence of prices and price volatility across three major international stock markets is studied daily opening and closing prices of major stock indexes for the tokyo london and new york stock markets are examined the analysis utilizes the autoregressive conditionally heteroskedastic arch family of statistical models to explore these pricing relationships evidence of price volatility spillovers from new york to tokyo london to tokyo and new york to london is observed but no price volatility spillover effects in other directions are found for the pre october 1987 period article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

have the gipsi settled down breaks and multivariate stochastic volatility models for and not against the european financial integration we investigate the integration of the european peripheral financial markets with germany france and the uk using a combination of tests for structural breaks and return correlations derived from several multivariate stochastic volatility models our findings suggest that financial integration intensified in anticipation of the euro further strengthened by the emu inception and amplified in response to the 2007 2008 financial crisis hence no evidence is found of decoupling of the equity markets in more troubled european countries from the core interestingly the uk despite staying outside the emu is not worse integrated with the gipsi than germany or france 2013 elsevier b v

insurance premium allocation and loss prevention in a large firm a principal agent analysis abstract faced with increased insurance costs large firms are turning to a more systematic allocation of premium costs to subsidiaries an approach which capitalizes on economies of scale in a corporate wide management of aggregated risks risk pooled across divisions as well as subsidiaries such practice however raises a number of problems i what part of the aggregate risk should the firm self insure ii how should premium costs be allocated between subsidiaries iii how much effort should subsidiaries invest in loss prevention programs and how should they manage claims i e co insure themselves iv how can the parent firm induce managers of subsidiaries to control subsidiaries risk thereby reducing future premium payments and moral hazard or what premium incentive scheme can the firm devise to penalize or compensate subsidiaries investing less than an optimal effort in loss prevention to deal with these problems a conceptual framework based on a principal agents analysis and the definition of a liability account for each subsidiary is developed which is used to reduce the problems of moral hazard due to a less than perfect or indirect monitoring system specifically assumption regarding the premium allocation incentive scheme are made and explicit solutions are obtained for the control of subsidiaries loss prevention effort allocation

the energy metabolism of china and india between 1971 and 2010 studying the bifurcation abstract this paper presents a comparison of the changes in the energetic metabolic pattern of china and india the two most populated countries in the world with two economies undergoing an important economic transition the comparison of the changes in the energetic metabolic pattern has the scope to characterize and explain a bifurcation in their evolutionary path in the recent years using the multi scale integrated analysis of societal and ecosystem metabolism musiasem approach the analysis shows an impressive transformation of china s energy metabolism determined by the joining of the wto in 2001 since then china became the largest factory of the world with a generalized capitalization of all sectors especially the industrial sector boosting economic labor productivity as well as total energy consumption india on the contrary lags behind when considering these factors looking at changes in the household sector energy metabolism associated with final consumption in the case of china the energetic metabolic rate emr soared in the last decade also thanks to a reduced growth of population whereas in india it remained stagnant for the last 40 years this analysis indicates a big challenge for india for the next decade in the light of the data analyzed both countries will continue to require strong injections of technical capital requiring a continuous increase in their total energy consumption when considering the size of these economies it is easy to guess that this may induce a dramatic increase in the price of energy an event that at the moment will penalize much more the chance of a quick economic development of india

volatility transmission in emerging european foreign exchange markets abstract this paper studies the dynamics of volatility transmission between central european ce currencies and the eur usd foreign exchange using model free estimates of daily exchange rate volatility based on intraday data we formulate a flexible yet parsimonious parametric model in which the daily realized volatility of a given exchange rate depends both on its own lags as well as on the lagged realized volatilities of the other exchange rates we find evidence of statistically significant intra regional volatility spillovers among the ce foreign exchange markets with the exception of the czech and prior to the recent turbulent economic events polish currencies we find no significant spillovers running from the eur usd to the ce foreign exchange markets to measure the overall magnitude and evolution of volatility transmission over time we construct a dynamic version of the diebold yilmaz volatility spillover index and show that volatility spillovers tend to increase in periods characterized by market uncertainty

international transmission of stock market movements this paper investigates the international transmission mechanism of stock market movements by estimating a nine market vector autoregression var system using simulated responses of the estimated var system we i locate all the main channels of interactions among national stock markets and ii trace out the dynamic responses of one market to innovations in another generally speaking a substantial amount of multi lateral interaction is detected among national stock markets innovations in the u s are rapidly transmitted to other markets in a clearly recognizable fashion whereas no single foreign market can significantly explain the u s market movements also the dynamic response pattern is found to be generally consistent with the notion of informationally efficient international stock markets

volatility spillover and multivariate volatility impulse response analysis of gfc news events abstractthis article applies two measures to assess spillovers across markets the diebold and yilmaz s 2012 spillover index and the hafner and herwartz s 2006 analysis of multivariate garch models using volatility impulse response analysis we use two sets of data daily realized volatility rv estimates taken from the oxford man rv library for the s p500 and the ftse plus 10 years of daily returns series for the new york stock exchange index and the ftse 100 index both data sets capture both the global financial crisis gfc and the subsequent european sovereign debt crisis esdc the spillover index captures the transmission of volatility to and from markets plus net spillovers the volatility impulse responses virf have to be calibrated to conditional volatility estimated at a particular point in time we explore the impact of three different shocks the onset of the gfc the height of the gfc and the impact of the esdc our modelling includes leverage and asymmetric effects applying a mu

evolution in dynamic linkages across daily national stock indexes abstract this article investigates how dynamic linkages among the daily rates of return of eight national stock indexes have evolved since 1972 a dynamic simultaneous equations model is estimated to describe the contemporaneous and lead lag relationships across national equity markets over three different years 1972 1980 and 1987 results reveal growing market interdependence within the same geographical region over time while there are many significant intermarket relationships within the same 24 hour period there are few significant lagged responses across markets beyond 24 hours this suggests a high degree of international market efficiency furthermore japan s market influence has been growing to rival that of the usa

hourly volatility spillovers between international equity markets abstract this paper examines the timing of mean and volatility spillovers between new york and london equity markets using an arch model it is found that the evidence of volatility spillovers between these markets is minimal and have a duration which lasts only an hour or so the most significant effects surround the movement of share prices around the new york opening but these results are not strong several new arch models are estimated including an asymmetric or leverage model and a non linear model which allows big shocks to have a different impact from small shocks

asymmetric volatility transmission in international stock markets abstract the transmission mechanism of price and volatility spillovers across the new york tokyo and london stock markets is investigated the asymmetric impact of good news market advances and bad news market declines on volatility transmission is described by an extended multivariate exponential generalized autoregressive conditionally heteroskedastic egarch model using daily open to close returns we find strong evidence that volatility spillovers in a given market are much more pronounced when the news arriving from the last market to trade is bad a before and after october 1987 crash analysis reveals that the linkages and interactions among the three markets have increased substantially in the post crash era suggesting that national markets have grown more interdependent

asymmetric information incentives and intrafirm resource allocation this paper considers the question how should a firm allocate a resource among divisions when the productivity of the resource in each division is known only to the division manager obviously if the divisions as represented by their managers are indifferent among various allocations of the resource the headquarters can simply request the division managers to reveal their private information on productivity knowing that the managers have no incentive to lie the resource allocation problem can then be solved under complete or at least symmetric information this aspect is a flaw in much of the recent literature on this topic i e there is nothing in the models considered which makes divisions prefer one allocation over another thus although in some cases elaborate allocation schemes are proposed and analyzed they are really unnecessary in the model we develop a division can produce the same output with less managerial effort if it is allocated more resources and effort is costly to the manager we further assume that this effort is unobservable by the headquarters so that it cannot infer divisional productivity from data on divisional output and managerial effort given these assumptions we seek an optimal resource allocation process our results show that certain types of transfer pricing schemes are optimal in particular if there are no potentially binding capacity constraints on production of the resource then an optimal process is for each division to choose a transfer price from a schedule announced by the headquarters division managers receive a fixed compensation minus the cost of the resource allocated to them at the chosen transfer price resources are allocated on the basis of the chosen transfer prices if there is a potentially binding constraint on resource production a somewhat more complicated but similar scheme is required

the energy gdp nexus addressing an old question with new methods abstract this paper reassesses the causal relationship between per capita energy use and gross domestic product while controlling for capital and labour productivity inputs in a panel of 30 oecd countries over the past 40 years the paper uses panel unit root and cointegration testing and specifies an appropriate vector error correction model to analyse the nexus between income and energy use in doing so we contribute to an old debate using modern tools that shed a new light there is some evidence that over the very short run bidirectional causality exists our results also show a strong unidirectional causality running from capital formation and gdp to energy usage in the long run the reverse causality found in recent work is lost we then show that we can reproduce these earlier results in our data if we reproduce a slightly misspecified model for the engle granger two step procedure used in these earlier papers our findings thus imply that results are very sensitive to model misspecification and careful testing of specifications is required our results have some strong policy implications they suggest that policies aimed at reducing energy usage or promoting energy efficiency are not likely to have a detrimental effect on economic growth except over the very short run

modeling heteroscedasticity in daily foreign exchange rates this article estimates autoregressive conditionally heteroscedastic arch and generalized arch garch models for five foreign currencies using 10 years of daily data a variety of arch and garch specifications a number of nonnormal error densities and a comprehensive set of diagnostic checks it finds that arch and garch models can usually remove all heteroscedasticity in price changes in all five currencies goodness of fit diagnostics indicate that exponential garch with certain nonnormal distributions fits the canadian dollar extremely well and the swiss franc and the deutsche mark reasonably well only one nonnormal distribution fits the japanese yen reasonably well none fit the british pound

optimal transfer pricing schemes for work averse division managers with private information abstract this paper models a decentralized firm under information asymmetry and effort disutility on the part of managers we assume that managers choose efforts before observing some private information however after the effort choice managers receive private information on their cost parameters which they report to the headquarters there exist many situations in which managers need to take efforts before obtaining private information for example the regular maintenance effort on the machine the effort on rd 2 under certain demand conditions managers cannot receive any information rent benefit for their private information even if they have the option to renege on the contract after obtaining their private information

stock returns and volatility an empirical study of the uk stock market abstract attempts to quantify the relationship between stock returns and volatility have produced conflicting conclusions in recent u s studies our paper examines this issue in the u k context for the first time using daily weekly fortnightly and monthly returns on the financial times all share index from january 1965 to december 1989 volatility estimates are obtained from monthly sample variances and arch models expected returns are shown to have had a positive though not statistically significant relationship with expected volatility the relationship between the unexpected components of the returns and volatility series is less clear we find evidence for a negative relationship but only when volatility expectations are represented by standard deviations

linkages in international stock markets evidence from a classification procedure in this article we propose a new approach to evaluate the predictable components in stock indices using a boosting based classification technique and we use this method to examine causality among the three main stock market indices in the world during periods of large positive and negative price changes the empirical evidence seems to indicate that the standard poors 500 index contains incremental information that is not present in either the ftse 100 index financial times stock exchange index or the nikkei 225 index and that could be used to enhance the predictability of the large positive and negative returns in the three main stock market indices in the world this in turn would suggest a causality relationship running from the standard poors 500 index to both the ftse 100 and the nikkei 225 indices

dynamic correlation and equicorrelation analysis of global financial turmoil evidence from emerging east asian stock markets abstractthis study investigates the dynamic conditional correlations dccs between eight emerging east asian stock markets and the us stock market and analyses the dynamic equicorrelation among these nine stock markets we find a significant increase in the conditional correlations and equicorrelation in the first phase of the global financial crisis we refer to this finding as contagion from the us stock market to the emerging east asian markets we also find an additional significant process of increasing correlations and equicorrelation herding in the second phase of the global financial crisis further we employ two new models namely dccx mgarch a dcc multivariate garch model with exogenous variables and decox mgarch a dynamic equicorrelation multivariate garch model with exogenous variables to identify the channels of contagion we find that an increase in the vix index increases the conditional correlations and equicorrelation while increases in ted spreads decrease the conditional corre

meteor showers or heat waves heteroskedastic intra daily volatility in the foreign exchange market this paper seeks to explain the causes of volatility clustering in exchange rates careful examination of intra daily exchange rates provides a test of two hypotheses heat waves and meteor showers the heat wave hypothesis is that the volatility has only country specific autocorrelation alternatively the meteor shower is a phenomenon of intra daily volatility spillovers from one market to the next using the garch model to specify the heteroskedasticity across intra daily market segments we find that the empirical evidence is generally against the null hypothesis of the heat wave using a volatility type of vector autoregression we examine the impact of news in one market on the time path of per hour volatility in other markets

the energy metabolism of countries energy efficiency and use in the period that followed the global financial crisis this paper discusses how the deceleration of economic growth that followed the financial crisis of 2008 influenced the energy efficiency allocation and use of 18 european countries by using a multi scale integrated analysis of societal and ecosystem metabolism musiasem the relationships between energy requirements economic trends and population are investigated for the years 2008 and 2015 the analyses are performed for the entire society level n for the household and the paid sectors level n 1 and for the agricultural the industrial and the service activities level n 2 results show that two main groups of countries performed the largest energy reductions namely the country most affected by the global financial crisis such as greece romania and spain where the total energy throughput decreased by 19 6 15 8 and 12 1 respectively and the countries such as ireland and united kingdom that experienced the largest energy intensity reductions 38 7 and 19 2 together with the highest gdp increases 44 8 and 10 2 by providing an overview of the relationships existing between socio economic and energy variables this paper contributes to the debate around growth and efficiency and can support the design of policies oriented to promote the achievement of a more sustainable and competitive economy

intraday volatility in international stock index futures markets meteor showers or heat waves the international transmission of intraday price volatility among the united states united kingdom and japanese stock index futures markets in the period 1988 1994 is investigated in this paper the empirical results based on extreme value estimators and vector autoregression indicate the rapid transmission of information between markets the volatilities of the u s and u k futures markets appear to follow a meteor shower rather than a heat wave type of process this means that these volatilities react to shocks from other markets i e they cannot be described only by their past values however the heat wave hypothesis is not rejected for the japanese market meaning that the shocks to japanese volatility are mostly country specific a multivariate garch model supports the u k and japanese but not the u s results

energy metabolism of the balearic islands 1986 2012 researchers from multiple disciplines point to the link between fossil fuel consumption and socio ecological deterioration studying the energy metabolism of the balearic islands 1986 2012 gives insights on the ecological economic and social consequences of regional specialization in mass tourism the methodology applied multi scale integrated analysis of societal and ecosystem metabolism musiasem has been developed in the last decades to analyze societal metabolism from the perspective of complex systems this study has allowed us to see that since the entry of spain in the european economic community in 1986 the real state tourism business model has been reinforced giving place to a higher level of consumption of fossil fuels an increase in work instability and a diminishing of labor productivity