do japanese auto manufacturers behave as short run profit maximizers in the us market does the pricing behaviour following a major vehicle restyling of japanese manufacturers in the us market differ from that of domestic manufacturers over the 1977 92 period while we found that domestic manufacturers increase price significantly on restyled models we were unable to conclude that japanese manufacturers did the same in light of the demand and cost conditions developed this pricing behaviour by japanese manufacturers is difficult to reconcile with short run profit maximization

observable and unobservable determinants of replacement of home appliances despite the dominant role of replacement purchases in many consumer durable categories the research in this area has not been extensive only in the last few years has the economic theory made progress towards a more rigorous analysis of the dynamic nature involved in replacement decisions as a consequence of this applied researchers have switched from conventional discrete choice models to new econometric techniques e g duration analysis that allow for richer relationships between socioeconomic variables characteristics of the durable good and the likelihood of its replacement over time our study focuses on two home appliances taken from the residential energy consumption survey recs based on a duration model that allows for unobserved heterogeneity across households we conclude that household demographics and product features both observable and unobservable in general have statistical power to explain replacement decisions over time

grouping durable goods modelling consumer preferences has a long history of interest in the literature several approaches that have been proposed consider consumer behaviour to be hierarchical products are divided into groups and preferences within a group are modelled independently an important question that arises in these efforts concerns the development of appropriate higher level groups this paper replicates and extends an earlier study by pickering et al 1973 in which product groups were developed based on consumer perceptions of product attributes we collect survey data perceived product attributes and similarity ratings for a set of durable products multiple measures are thus used to test the stability and consistency of product groups a matrix of product similarity values is constructed for each of these two survey based measures cluster analysis is then performed to develop a grouping scheme for these durable goods althought differences are observed the product composition of the resulting product groups a

decisions to replace consumer durables goods an econometric application of wiener and renewal processes current sales of most consumer durable goods are accounted for by replacements however only in recent years has the economic literature provided a more rigorous analysis of replacement purchases by incorporating elements of dynamic programming and of the theory of stochastic processes this paper is an empirical study of household replacement decisions modeled as an optimal stopping rule using data from the residential energy consumption survey recs of the u s department of energy we conclude that demographic variables operation and replacement costs and equipment characteristics may affect ownership spells of appliances such as electric heaters and central air conditioners

costly arbitrage evidence from closed end funds arbitrage costs lead to large deviations of prices from fundamentals using a sample of closed end funds i find that the market value of a fund is more likely to deviate from the value of its assets 1 for funds with portfolios that are difficult to replicate 2 for funds that pay out smaller dividends 3 for funds with lower market values and 4 when interest rates are high these factors are related to the magnitude of the deviation as opposed to the direction i e whether discount or premium and explain a quarter of cross sectional mispricing variation these findings are consistent with noise trader models of asset pricing

heuristics and biases in timing the replacement of durable products the process by which individuals make recurrent decisions about when to replace durable goods is examined two experiments are reported in which subjects play the role of purchasing agents who must repeatedly decide whether to keep a currently owned manufacturing device or replace it with a superior new one given uncertainty about the future performance of new and currently owned machines replacement patterns are compared with those that would be predicted if subjects made decisions as rational economic agents following the principles of optimal replacement theory this comparison reveals a number of systematic departures from optimality that do not vanish with experience among these are a tendency to replace at a slower rate than would be predicted by normative theory and a tendency to weigh opportunity costs arising from obsolescence greater than those arising from product deterioration in addition subjects display a bias against making replacement purchases given short lapses of time since the previous replacement the findings are interpreted in terms of known biases in decision making under uncertainty in dynamic and static settings

stationary equilibrium in a market for durable assets this paper presents a dynamic model of consumer trading on the primary secondary and scrap markets for a stochastically deteriorating durable good in a stationary economy with perfect information and no transaction costs we explicitly model the trading process by tracking each durable from its birth in the primary market through its sequence of owners in the secondary market until its death in the scrap market we prove that a stationary equilibrium exists characterize the distribution of consumer holdings of durables and show that equilibrium asset prices are shadow prices to a particular regenerative optimal stopping problem we show that each heterogeneous agent equilibrium is observationally equivalent to a homogeneous agent equilibrium we derive a differential equation for equilibrium rental rates and a functional equation which links rental rates to asset prices these equations show precisely how the structure of durable prices and rental rates embody the functional form and population distribution of preferences and the technological characteristics of durable goods this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

rates of time preference and consumer valuations of automobile safety and fuel efficiency this article estimates hedonic price models for automobiles using a data set on almost 3 000 households from the u s department of energy residential transportation energy consumption survey the standard hedonic models are generalized to recognize the role of discounting of fuel efficiency and safety yielding an estimated rate of time preference ranging from 11 to 17 percent this range includes the prevailing rate of interest for car loans in 1988 and is consequently consistent with market rates purchasers exhibit an implicit value of life ranging from 2 6 to 3 7 million which is within the range found in the labor market as well as other market contexts the model also estimates a significant price effect for auto injury risks and fuel efficiency

modelling the consumer s decision to replace durable goods a hazard function approach this article analysis the consumer s durable good replacement decision using hazard models in contrast to the typical limited dependent variable model often used in durable good demand studies hazard models allow for much richer replacement to illustrate the technique a recursive system consisting of a regression equation and a hazard model is used to examine home heating system replacement decisions by residencial customers of a major southeasten us electric utility the results indicate that overall system replacement rates decline over time and that the probability of replacement for specific households depends negatively on the age of the head of household abd the availability of natural gas and positively on system age and higher than expected household energy use

the scope and limits of financial liberalisation in developing countries a critical survey this article reviews the growing literature on financial reform in developing countries we draw both on the theoretical contributions outlining the case for and against liberalisation as well as on the experience of many developing countries with liberalisation we argue that the existence of market failures in financial markets hampers the liberalisation process and indeed suggests that the simple liberalising strategy envisaged in much of the literature is inappropriate we argue instead for an alternative strategy which integrates some aspects of liberalisation with the development of appropriate financial institutions designed to serve best the needs of the real economy

firm volatility in granular networks firm volatilities comove strongly over time and their common factor is the dispersion of the economy wide firm size distribution in the cross section smaller firms and firms with a more concentr

default probabilities for mortgages abstract models now exist for valuing the default option embedded in a mortgage implicitly these models generate all the information necessary to determine the probability of default in any possible situation economists and policymakers may find such default probabilities considerably more interesting than the nonobservable dollar value of the default option this paper provides the analytical procedure necessary to calculate such probabilities and presents a wide range of results the decision to terminate a mortgage results in the loss of the options to default or prepay in the future because of this consideration the price of a house must fall below the point of zero equity before a rational borrower defaults we provide evidence that even in the absence of transaction costs this value of delay results in substantial levels of negative equity being observed without default occurring in fact by not accounting for the value of delay most of the current empirical literature cited in this article substantially overestimates the role of transaction costs in the decision to default

technology invention and diffusion in residential energy consumption a stochastic frontier approach traditional large appliances absorb a large share of residential electricity consumption and represent important targets of energy policy strategies aimed at achieving energy security despite being characterized by rather mature technologies this group of appliances still offers large potential in terms of efficiency gains due to their pervasive diffusion in this paper we analyse the electricity consumption of a set of four traditional white goods in a panel of ten eu countries observed over 21 years 1990 2010 with the aim of disentangling the amount of technical efficiency from the overall energy saving the technical efficiency trend is modelled through a set of technology components representing both the invention and adoption process by the means of specific patents weighted by production and bilateral import flows which allows to overcome the rigid stochastic frontier framework in modelling the effect of technical change our results show that the derived energy demand and inefficiency trends are both related to changes in the amount of available technology embodied in energy efficient appliances the effect is significant both in its domestic and international components and suggests an active role of innovation and trade policies for achieving efficiency targets which directly impact the amount of electricity consumed by households

tariffs quotas and piecemeal policy reform abstract this paper extends recent results on the welfare implications of piecemeal tariff adjustments to include cases where the initial trade distortions involve both tariffs and quotas it shows that the standard prescriptions for piecemeal tariff reform are largely unaffected by the presence of unalterable quotas on other goods prescriptions for piecemeal quota reform are also derived although they are constrained by the presence of unalterable tariffs

capital flight under uncertainty about domestic taxation and trade liberalization abstract this paper analyses in a simple general equilibrium framework how uncertainty regarding the future level of domestic taxes on factor incomes and regarding trade liberalization in an economy contemplating tariff reforms affects the overall volume of domestic investment and capital flight it is a variation of the alesina tabellini model alesina a tabellini g 1989 external debt capital flight and political risk journal of international economics 27 and brings out the importance of income effects in addition to substitution effects in determining how the volume of capital flight responds to changes in key policy uncertainty parameters

the political economy of policy credibility the new classical macroeconomics and the remaking of emerging economies the criterion of policy credibility is invoked with increasing frequency today by new classical development economists in debates over economic and institutional reform in developing and transitional countries the paper argues that the credibility criterion is used to privilege neoliberal economic policies and associated institutions the paper demonstrates that the credibility criterion is theoretically anti pluralist and politically anti democratic in this connection the paper argues that a policy s credibility is always secured endogenously through political and economic power rather than exogenously by virtue of the epistemiological status of the theory that promotes it the paper concludes by suggesting two alternative criteria by which policy regimes and the governance structure of monetary institutions could be adjudicated these alternative criteria are termed the principle of democratic credibility and the principle of fallibility copyright 2000 by oxford university press

the impact of financial liberalization on capital structure adjustment in pakistan a doubly censored modelling abstractthe purpose of the study is to explain adjustment rate towards target capital structure of pakistani nonfinancial listed firms and to investigate the impact of financial liberalization fl on capital structure adjustment rate we control for the unobserved heterogeneity and the fractional nature of adjustment rate by applying an unbiased dynamic panel fractional estimator on an unbalanced panel data of pakistani nonfinancial firms listed during 1972 2010 we find that these firms adjust at an annual rate of 24 51 to reach their capital structure targets we argue that in order to optimize the benefits of fl the government should strengthen financial as well as judicial institutions to enforce the creditors rights that will enable access to more options to pakistani firms to raise cheaper external financing

residential bioenergy heating a study of consumer perceptions of improved woodstoves abstract consumers choices play a key role for the development of biomass heating in the residential sector the city of oslo has granted subsidies to households who change to new improved low emission woodstoves the purpose of this study is to expand the knowledge about users experiences and attitudes to residential biomass heating an adapted model of the theory of planned behavior was used to model households inclination to continue using their woodstoves for heating more than 800 questionnaires were collected from households that recently had invested in an improved woodstove the respondents were satisfied with the new woodstoves the respondents also considered themselves competent to use and maintain the stove and few had problems acquiring fuelwood further analyses showed that the intention to continue to use the new woodstove depends on economic benefits heating performance perceived time and effort to operate the stove environmental effects of heating as well as perceived subjective norm the results imply that when marketing a modern technology for bioenergy heating both public authorities and producers should consider issues related to the users perception of subjective norm such as perceived status of using bioenergy or environmental concerns when designing campaigns to promote the use of woodstoves

replacement decisions with multiple stochastic values and depreciation abstract we develop an analytical real option solution to the after tax optimal timing boundary for a replaceable asset whose operating cost and salvage value deteriorate stochastically we construct a general replacement model from which seven other particular models can be derived along with deterministic versions we show that the presence of salvage value and tax depreciation significantly lowers the operating cost threshold that justifies and thus hastens replacement although operating cost volatility increases defer replacement increases in the salvage value volatility hasten replacement albeit modestly while increases in the correlation between costs and salvage value defer replacement reducing the tax rate or depreciation lifetime or allowing an investment tax credit yield mixed results these results are also compared with those of less complete models and deterministic versions showing that failure to consider several stochastic variables and taxation in the replacement process may lead to sub optimal decisions

biodiesel investment in a disruptive tax credit policy environment abstract an investigation of poisson type policy jumps on biodiesel investment considers the theory of investment under uncertainty the analysis studies the probability of implementing a policy if it is not in effect and the probability of withdrawal if it is in effect an application models the policy switching regime of the discontinuous u s federal tax credit of 1 00 per gallon on biodiesel results support that time inconsistent government policies do lead to market uncertainty the analysis reveals a pronounced negative impact on decisions to invest in a biodiesel refinery results do indicate a consistent policy switching regime may not be that disruptive to the emerging biodiesel industry it is policy uncertainty that drives the option pricing thresholds and a consistent policy switching does not increase the uncertainty

has pricing behaviour in the us automobile industry become more competitive the literature in the us is divided over whether the character of the domestic automobile industry has changed recently becoming less oligopolistic this paper investigates whether domestic industry pricing policies have changed since the oil embargo the paper finds evidence that industry pricing policy has changed from that consistent with a target rate of return pricing to one more consistent with marginal cost pricing

earnings news and small traders an intraday analysis abstract this study separates trading volume into buyer and seller initiated activities and examines the directional volume reaction in small and large trades to different types of earnings news good bad news triggers brief but intense buying selling in the large trades however a persistent period of unusually high buying activity is observed in the small trades irrespective of the news this anomalous proclivity of small traders to buy is robust across firm size trading volume and different earnings expectation models several explanations are discussed although the behavior does not seem fully explained by existing theories

capital budgeting for interrelated projects a real options approach this paper explores the effect of project interrelationships on investment decisions and project values in a real options framework we examine in detail the mutually exclusive case where a firm may invest in the development stage of two projects and then may select only a single project to implement the firm can develop the projects in parallel or in sequence the choice of development policy depends on the relative values of the embedded options for each strategy sequential development is shown to be superior to parallel development when projects have highly correlated values and when they require a large commitment of capital for development are short term in nature and have relatively low volatility we also show that the optimal ordering of sequential projects does not always begin with the most profitable project

real flexibility and financial structure an empirical analysis i examine the empirical relation between real flexibility and financial structure i test whether real flexibility increases debt capacity by lowering default risk and making assets more marketable or decreases debt capacity by facilitating risk shifting and asset substitution i measure real flexibility as the sensitivity of marginal production and investment decisions to variations in the economic environment i find that financial leverage is negatively related to production flexibility but positively related to investment flexibility this split in results suggests that although asset substitution facilitated by investment flexibility can be prevented contractually risk shifting facilitated by production flexibility is intractable copyright 2003 oxford university press

financial development theories and recent experience for many years practising development econo mists made pronouncements on the importance of developing the financial sector to accelerate eco nomic growth based on slender theoretical grounds indeed the vast bulk of theoretical work relating financial conditions to economic development published before 1973 detected possibilities for negative or at best neutral effects of financial development on income levels john maynard keynes 1936 argues that liquidity preference tended historically to push the real interest rate above its full employment equilibrium level as a result income falls to equate saving and investment plans keynes suggests that liquidity preference and hence the real interest rate can be reduced by financial repression in the form of interest rate ceilings or a gesellian stamp tax on money james tobin 1965 shows that a larger ratio of money to physical capital in household portfolios reduces the capital labour ratio and hence per capita incomes even when the economy is operating at full employment by reducing preference for money in favour of physical capital financial repression can raise the capital labour ratio and accelerate economic growth during the transition to a new higher level of per c pi a incomes in tobin s model economic growth and inflation are positively related because higher inflation reduces the demand for money more recently a school of neo structuralist economists proffers models in which liberalization and devel opment of the formal financial system can produce both higher inflation and lower economic growth

investment under uncertainty and policy change in this paper the impact of a policy change on the investment behavior of the firm is studied in an incomplete information setting the policy change occurs when a stochastic process describing the state of the economic environment reaches a certain trigger the firm has incomplete information about the trigger and knows only its probability distribution consequently both the firm s conjecture concerning the trigger value as well as the precision of this conjecture serve as input parameters we derive the optimal investment rule maximizing the value of the firm and show that the impact of the trigger value uncertainty on the optimal investment threshold is non monotonic the threshold decreases with uncertainty for its low levels while the reverse is true if uncertainty is high furthermore we provide results concerning the valuation of the firm s investment opportunity and present some policy implications

the dynamics of performance volatility and firm valuation we construct a model to illustrate the dynamics of cash flow volatility cfv and firm valuation as a firm progressively invests in its growth opportunities its book value increases and catches up with its market value reducing the valuation multiple q cfv decreases because of the diversification effect of investing in more market segments we document a positive cfv q association which varies with firm size investment opportunities and the correlation across market segments empirical findings strongly support the model s predictions and are robust to alternative explanations offered by extant studies on firm growth volatility and valuation

asset retirement with infinitely repeated alternative replacements harvest age and species choice in forestry abstract at what age should productive assets be retired how should replacements be chosen when they differ in their uncertain ability to generate future incomes as a particular version of that problem we study the tree harvesting decision with two possible replacement species whose values as timber are stochastic and whose growth functions are deterministic in the single rotation wicksell problem starting with a bare piece of land an empty shop it is optimal to choose and plant one species immediately if its current value is sufficiently high relative to that of the other species the alternative equipment however if the species are insufficiently price differentiated it is preferable to leave the land vacant the shop empty despite the opportunity cost of doing so in the repeated version of the problem it is never optimal to leave the land bare provided the cost of replacement is null furthermore the optimal harvest tree retirement age not only depends on the price and current productivity of the trees in place but also on the price and productivity of the other species because it may replace the current one the harvest age reaches a peak at some critical threshold of the relative price that signals the necessity to switch to the alternative species indeed this is when the opportunity cost of choosing one alternative replacement over the other is the highest the land value and also the value of the firm is similar to an american option with free boundary infinite expiry period and endogenous payoff the paper highlights the opportunity cost of alternative replacement options and the central role of their volatility in both asset retirement and replacement choice decisions all results are derived analytically a numerical treatment by the penalty method completes the resolution

renewing assets with uncertain revenues and operating costs we study optimal replacement and abandonment decisions for real assets when both revenues and costs are uncertain and deteriorate with age we develop an implicit representation of the renewal boundary as the solution to a set of simultaneous equations this quasi analytical method has the merit of computational ease and transparency we show that the correlation between revenues and operating costs has a significant influence on the renewal boundary and that the increase in revenue immediately following a renewal has a greater relative influence on the boundary than either operating cost or renewal cost the quasi analytical method is sufficiently flexible to deal with other real option models involving 2 variables

interest rate management in ldc s the mckinnon argument that higher time deposit rates raise output and lower inflation in the short run and increase medium term growth by raising the savings rate are shown to depend crucially on the assumption that portfolio shifts into td s come out of an asset providing less intermediation than the banking system we show that if instead the shift is out of an asset providing more intermediation e g loans on a curbmarket raising td rates is contractionary in the short run may have negative impacts on growth and can lead to more rather than less inflation in the short run

interactions of corporate financing and investment decisions a dynamic framework this article analyzes the interaction between a firm s dynamic investment operating and financing decisions in a model with operating adjustment and recapitalization costs using numerical analysis we solve the model for cases that highlight interaction effects we find that higher production flexibility due to lower costs of shutting down and reopening a production facility enhances the firm s debt capacity thereby increasing the net tax shield value of debt financing while higher financial flexibility resulting from lower recapitalization costs has a similar effect production flexibility and financial flexibility are to some extent substitutes we find that the impact of debt financing on the firm s investment and operating decisions is economically insignificant

can equity volatility explain the global loan pricing puzzle we examine whether equity volatility can explain the difference in syndicated corporate loan spreads paid by u s and european borrowers first documented by carey and nini 2007 we argue that ols estimates of the association between equity volatility and loan spreads are biased and inconsistent we suggest instrumental variables that potentially identify consistent estimates our instrumental variable results indicate that there is no statistically significant difference in loan spreads paid by u s and european borrowers and that ols estimates of the association between idiosyncratic equity volatility and corporate loan spreads are biased downward by about a factor of 5

the idiosyncratic volatility puzzle time trend or speculative episodes campbell lettau malkiel and xu 2001 document a positive trend in idiosyncratic volatility during the 1962 1997 period we show that by 2003 volatility falls back to pre 1990s levels furthermore we show that the increase and subsequent reversal is concentrated among firms with low stock prices and high retail ownership this evidence suggests that the increase in idiosyncratic volatility through the 1990s was not a time trend but rather an episodic phenomenon at least partially associated with retail investors results from cross sectional regressions conditional trend estimation stock split events and attention grabbing events are consistent with a retail trading effect the author 2009 published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies all rights reserved for permissions please email journals permissions oxfordjournals org oxford university press

conditional investment policy under uncertainty and irreversibility abstract an irreversible investment decision such as fixing a defective equipment is considered which in turn is conditional on the profitability and expected life of the entire equipment given the sunk cost of fixing the fault the uncertain costs of waiting and the expected life of the entire equipment the problem is to find the optimal time to fix the fault to minimize the expected total discounted costs the optimal policy is obtained in the optimal stopping context using stochastic dynamic programming techniques and analyzed via the partial differential equation pde it is shown that increasing uncertainty over internal losses as a function of profits and decreasing life expectancy of the entire equipment can significantly increase the optimal stopping barrier

idiosyncratic return volatility cash flows and product market competition over the past 40 years the volatility of the average stock return has drastically outpaced total market volatility thus idiosyncratic return volatility has dramatically increased we estimate this increase to be 6 per year consistent with an efficient market this result is mirrored by an increase in the idiosyncratic volatility of fundamental cash flows we argue that these findings are attributable to the more intense economy wide competition various cross sectional and time series tests support this idea economic competitiveness facilitates reinterpretation of the results from the cross country r2 literature as well as the us idiosyncratic risk literature jel g12 g14

repeated real options optimal investment behaviour and a good rule of thumb abstract this paper extends the standard investment under uncertainty set up with a single investment option to the case of infinitely repeated options analytical solutions are derived and it is shown that repeated options not only imply a smaller value of waiting than in the case of a single option but also that the optimal stopping rule is affected differently by changes in underlying parameters this is shown to allow for the use of a simple hurdle rate rule as a good and robust approximation to optimal behaviour when investment options are repeated something which is unlikely in the single option case

consumer choice on ecologically efficient water heaters marketing strategy and policy implications in japan abstract this study examines how consumers select ecologically efficient water heaters in japan energy conservation in household water heating is increasingly important for reducing an amount of co 2 emission because the share of water heating in household energy consumption is approximately 30 recently japanese households have widely used ecologically efficient electric heat pump water heaters eco cute or gas fired water heaters eco jozu the total number of such efficient water heaters sold in japan was more than 2 5 million at the end of 2008 this study investigates various factors and impacts of marketing strategy for promoting the appliances in japan we apply mixed and nested logit models to a disaggregated choice data on water heaters from 2004 to 2008 this study considers retail energy prices a government financial support and marketing activities as important factors for appliance selection in addition we consider consumers housing attributes such as floor space and age of building this empirical study finds two business implications one of the two implications is that an increase in an energy price may enhance a choice probability of eco cute and eco jozu because a price increase invites consumer s consciousness on energy conservation so that a cost reduction on energy consumption becomes essential in a use of the efficient appliances the other implication is that marketing activities especially by recommendations from sales representatives and or housing suppliers are important for consumer behaviors the other important findings are discussed in this study this business experience in japan is useful to the other countries where ecologically efficient water heaters are not popular at the current moment

choosing the precision of performance metrics there is a standard trade off in compensation contracts between the provision of incentives and insurance we hypothesize that this trade off influences the precision with which firm performance is measured we find that firm outcomes are measured less precisely when chance plays a large role in these outcomes further this precision is determined through the choice of shares outstanding this has several novel implications nominal stock prices can remain constant over time and firms with unpredictable cash flows should have more shares and lower stock price levels all else equal we find evidence consistent with these implications

earnings expectations investor trade size and anomalous returns around earnings announcements abstract we provide evidence that identifiable subsets of investors use significantly different information sets investors initiating large trades respond to analysts earnings forecast errors while investors initiating small trades respond to a less sophisticated signal that underestimates the implications of current earnings innovations for future earnings levels this suggests small investors exhibit the behavior that bernard and thomas journal of accounting and economics 13 305 340 theorize causes post earnings announcement drift we also use analysts forecasts to significantly improve the predictability of returns around earnings announcements previously documented by bernard and thomas finally results attempting to link return predictability to the prevalence of small investor trading are mixed

pace sequencing and credibility of structural reforms abstract this paper reviews the theory and empirical evidence on the main policy issues relating to the pace credibility and sequencing of structural reforms in less developed countries and post socialist economies it highlights areas where there is broad consensus as well as widespread disagreement among policymakers and economists pointing out along the way areas where more research would be useful

reforms and macroeconomic adjustments in chile during 1974 1984 abstract this paper provides a background on the main macroeconomic developments of the reform period after a review of the macroeconomic disequilibrium before the reforms the paper interprets the macroadjustments the interpretation covers two distinct periods 1973 1976 when policy was based on a closed economy view and 1977 1982 when macropolicy was increasingly guided by an open economy model the paper argues that the setback that chile suffered during 1982 1983 and the large external debt that was accumulated were the result of two major errors the first was the use of the exchange rate to stabilize prices without due regard for the incentives for large capital inflows that arose from this policy at a time when international capital markets were very liquid the second major error was in the second half of 1981 after a large drop in capital inflows the authorities relied on an automatic adjustment mechanism by which the monetary squeeze from the reduction in capital inflows would improve the real exchange rate because wages were indexed to prior inflation the adjustment mechanism was bound to create substantial unemployment as indeed was the case the paper concludes with the assessment that most of the micro reforms were in the right direction and had the expected result and the errors were mostly in the design of macroeconomic policies

structural shifts in credit rating standards i examine the time series variation in corporate credit rating standards from 1985 to 2007 a divergent pattern exists between investment grade and speculative grade rating standards from 1985 to 2002 as investment grade standards tighten and speculative grade loosen in 2002 a structural shift occurs toward more stringent ratings holding characteristics constant firms experience a drop of 1 5 notches in ratings due to tightened standards from 2002 to 2007 credit spread tests suggest that the variation in standards is not completely due to changes in the economic climate rating standards affect credit spreads loose ratings are associated with higher default rates

a dynamic it adoption model for the soho market pc generational decisions with technological expectations thesmall office home office soho professionals comprise the fastest growing segment in the labor force today typically being a one person business based at home soho owners mostly rely on office information technology to single handedly run their entire operation despite the segment s ostensibly growing dependence and influence on the information technology it industry still very little is known about the dynamics between soho and it products with the purpose of addressing this void we investigate the soho professionals adoption patterns of multigenerational it products accordingly we develop and empirically estimate an individual soho levelinitial andrepeat purchase logit model that captures the procurement patterns for successive generations of technological products namely the pc category specifically we find that soho professionals procurement choices are influenced by a number of salient dimensions i e income performance price interpurchase time network externalities furthermore some soho owners are found to have a preference for a future expected generation over a currently available one which is explained via their business dispositions i e technology orientation result orientation search orientation toward accepting technological incertitude

waiting to invest investment and uncertainty the textbook analysis that accepts all projections with positive net present values as positive is quite generally wrong the ability to delay a project means that almost every project competes with itself postponed with uncertain interest rates even the simplest of projects has an option value the effect of interest rate uncertainty on the optimal delay of investment is sizable this implies that the rate of aggregate investment will depend on both the level of the real interest rate and the degree of interest rate uncertainty furthermore it is not necessarily true that investment rises with a fall in interest rates copyright 1992 by university of chicago press

a note on the behavior of stock returns around ex dates of stock distributions stock returns after the ex split date is significantly higher than the presplit volatility the increase in the standard deviation of daily returns is of the order of twenty eight to thirty five percent and persists for as long as a full year after the ex date even more interesting is their finding that there is no permanent change in the variance of returns at the announcement date they investigate several potential explanations for this aberration but are unable to find a satisfactory answer grinblatt masulis and titman 6 henceforth gmt examine the behavior of expected returns around announcement dates and exdates for stock distributions exceeding ten percent classifying stock distributions as either stock dividends split factors of twenty five percent or less or stock splits they conclude that return behavior differs across these two types of distributions with stock dividends exhibiting larger abnormal returns than splits this is interpreted by them as evidence in favor of the retained earnings hypothesis the dissimilar accounting treatment of these two types of stock distributions affects retained earnings in different ways and hence splits are not simply large stock dividends this paper extends the work of op to all types of stock distributions in section i postsplit variance is shown to be different from the presplit variance for small stock splits and stock dividends while small splits display an increase in volatility like large splits stock dividends are associated with a decrease in the volatility of returns this evidence also supports gmt s conclusions that stock splits and stock dividends are different types of events section ii investigates the volatility of returns for reverse splits and demonstrates that postsplit volatility decreases for these events this evidence is complementary to woolridge and chambers 9 findings that reverse splits are also associated with negative abnormal returns at their announcement and ex dates section iii concludes the paper

how do households choose quality and time to replacement for a rapidly improving durable good abstract many durable goods particularly in the high technology sector of the economy experience rapid quality improvement as a result replacement is typically due to obsolescence rather than breakdown and replacement cycles are relatively short when these goods are vertically differentiated consumers must make two important inter related choices upon making a purchase what quality level to buy and how long to wait between purchases in this paper we analyze how these two decisions relate to underlying preferences and to each other both theoretically and empirically we demonstrate how a single tenuous assumption in a commonly used theoretical model can drive the relationships we would predict when we take this model to the data this highlights the necessity of a more direct empirical analysis in our empirics we show that quality choice and replacement cycle length rcl are generally positively correlated we also find evidence of non monotonic relationships between quality choice and marginal utility of quality and rcl choice and marginal utility of money that is households who value quality more don t always buy higher quality pcs and households who value money less don t always buy more frequently ceteris paribus our results provide new insights into the nature of durable goods demand the proper characterization of markets and market segments and welfare measures

on the optimal structure of government subsidies for enterprise zones and other locational development programs abstract government locational development programs often reward businesses for decisions they would have made or that are going to be quickly reversed this paper presents a model to determine the amount and structure of government locational subsidies that minimize this problem we model the firm s decision to switch locations as an option whose value depends on stochastic operating costs the costs to switch locations and subsidies offered by the government the government maximizes the expected benefit from the operation of the firm within its preferred location by choosing a subsidy package that explicitly and endogenously recognizes the firm s switching option

operational asset replacement strategy a real options approach abstract this paper analyses the problem of replacement by investigating the optimal moment of investment replacement in a given tax environment with a given depreciation policy an operation and maintenance cost minimization model based on the definition of equivalent annual cost is applied to a real options paradigm the developed methodology allows for an innovative evaluation of the flexibility of replacement process analysis a new two factor evaluation function is introduced to quantify decisions on asset replacement under a unique cycle environment this study improves upon previous findings in the literature as it accounts for autonomous salvage value processes based on partial differential equations this model achieves a general analytical solution and particular numerical solution the results differ significantly from those observed in one factor models by showing evidence of over evaluation in optimal levels of replacement and by confirming suspicions that different types of uncertainties produce non monotonous effects on the optimal replacement level the scientific contribution of this study lies in new and stronger approaches to equivalent annual cost literature supplying an algorithm for operation and maintenance cost minimization that is conditioned by autonomous salvage value this study also contributes to the real options literature by developing a two factor model with brownian processes applied to asset replacement

do etfs increase volatility due to their low trading costs exchange traded funds etfs are a potential catalyst for short horizon liquidity traders the liquidity shocks can propagate to the underlying securities through the arbitrage channel and etfs may increase the nonfundamental volatility of the securities in their baskets we exploit exogenous changes in index membership and find that stocks with higher etf ownership display significantly higher volatility etf ownership increases the negative autocorrelation in stock prices the increase in volatility appears to introduce undiversifiable risk in prices because stocks with high etf ownership earn a significant risk premium of up to 56 basis points monthly

investment under uncertainty the case of replacement investment decisions we analyze the determinants of replacement investment decisions in a contingent claims model with maintenance and operation cost uncertainty we find that the optimal time between replacements is increasing in the volatility of cost the purchase price of a new asset and the corporate tax rate and is decreasing in the systematic risk of cost the salvage value of the asset and the investment tax credit the optimal time between replacements can either increase or decrease with an increase in the depreciation rate extensions of the model to examine the effects of technological and tax policy uncertainty on replacement investment decisions give intuitive but striking results uncertainty about the arrival of a technological innovation that would decrease maintenance and operation cost results in a significant decrease in replacement investment uncertainty in a tax law change that would encourage investment decreases current investment and uncertainty in a tax law change that would discourage investment increases current investment

gambling preferences options markets and volatility this study examines whether the gambling behavior of investors affects volume and volatility in financial markets focusing on the options market we find that the ratio of call option volume relative to total option volume is greatest for stocks with return distributions that resemble lotteries consistent with the theoretical predictions of stein 1987 we demonstrate that gambling motivated trading in the options market influences future spot price volatility these results not only identify a link between lottery preferences in the stock market and the options market but they also suggest that lottery preferences can lead to destabilized stock prices

investment tax incentives and frequent tax reforms despite the frequency of tax changes and their potential importance to investors almost all of the analysis of tax based investment incentives assumes investors never anticipate any tax changes we depart from this approach by analyzing the historical pattern of u s corporate investment incentives over the period 1953 86 incorporating the feature of investor awareness that the tax code may change our analysis incorporates a predictive equation for future tax variables into a model of optimal investment subject to adjustment costs and uncertainty we find that expectations of future tax changes significantly affect the incentive to invest only if adjustment costs are low in this case the incentive to invest in 1986 was strong as investors are estimated to have anticipated the coming reduction in investment incentives this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

energy use and appliance ownership in ireland abstract this paper examines household energy use and appliance ownership in ireland logit regression analyses on a large micro dataset reveal how household characteristics can help explain the ownership of energy using appliances using ols regression models we explore the factors affecting residential energy demand conditional on appliance ownership results suggest that the methods of space and water heating employed by a household are even more important than electrical appliances in explaining domestic energy usage however the stock of appliances must be included in such models so that results will not be biased the methods employed in this paper can be easily adopted for studies of household energy use in other countries where household expenditure survey data are available

the effect of tax depreciation on the stochastic replacement policy abstract the optimal replacement policy for an asset subject to a stochastic deteriorating operating cost is determined for three different tax depreciation schedules and a known re investment cost as the solution to a two factor model using a quasi analytical method we find that tax depreciation exerts a critical influence over the replacement policy by lowering the operating cost thresholds although typically a decline in the corporate tax rate increase in any initial capital allowance or decrease in the depreciation lifetime increase in depreciation rate results in a lower operating cost threshold which justifies replacing older equipment these results are not universal and indeed for younger age assets the result may be the opposite an accelerating depreciation schedule may incentivize early replacement in a deterministic context but not necessarily for an environment of uncertainty

institutionalization delegation and asset prices abstract we study the effects of institutionalization on fund manager compensation and asset prices institutionalization raises the performance sensitive component of the equilibrium contract which makes institutional investors effectively more risk averse institutionalization affects market outcomes through two opposing effects the direct effect is to bring in more informed capital and the indirect effect is to make each institutional investor trade less aggressively on information through affecting the equilibrium contract when there are many institutions and little noise trading in the market the indirect contracting effect dominates the direct informed capital effect in determining market variables such as the cost of capital return volatility price volatility and market liquidity otherwise the direct informed capital effect dominates

the assessment financial liberalization financial systems and economic growth the report addresses four sets of issues mac roeconomic policy to promote growth the role of financial liberalization govemmentinterventionin credit markets and the design of financial systems it puts forward the following blueprint for reform reform should start by getting the fiscal deficit under control and establishing macroeconomic stability the government should then scale down its directed credit programs and adjust the level and pattern of interest rates to bring them into line with inflation and other market forces in the initial stage of reform the govern ment should also try to improve the foundations of finance that is the accounting and legal systems procedures for the enforcement of contracts disclosure requirements and the structure of prudential regulation and supervision it should encourage managerial au tonomy in financial institutions if institutional insol vency is widespread the government may need to re structure some financial institutions in the early stages of reform world bank 1989 p 127

exploring the relationship between the markets for new and used durable goods the case of automobiles given that durable products are long lived there exists the possibility of secondary markets for used products as well as the potential for product obsolescence this is an important issue in markets where technology changes rapidly because the introduction of new versions of a product can make earlier versions obsolete more generally prices of older versions in the secondary market adjust in response to changes incorporated in new versions of the product thus another method of evaluating consumers response to a new product is by looking at the variation in market prices of the old product this paper develops a general model to explore the relationship between primary markets for new cars and secondary markets for used cars the results suggest that the depreciation of used cars is influenced strongly by the types of changes in new model cars

investments of uncertain cost abstract this paper examines irreversible investment decisions when projects take time to complete and are subject to two types of cost uncertainty the first is technical uncertainty i e uncertainty over the physical difficulty of completing a project which is only resolved as the investment proceeds the second is input cost uncertainty i e uncertainty over the prices of construction inputs or over government regulations affecting construction costs which is external to the firm these two types of uncertainty have very different effects on the investment decision a simple investment rule is derived that maximizes firm value and is used to analyze the decision to start or continue building a nuclear power plant during the 1980s

the paradox effects of uncertainty and flexibility on investment in renewables under governmental support abstract given that companies have the flexibility to decide about size and timing of a renewable electricity investment the existence of four paradox effects is proven only the type but not the amount of governmental support has an influence on the optimal capacity of a renewable electricity generating system a decrease of governmental support over time may result in higher capacities of renewables installed on an industry level at least on the short term likewise higher uncertainty may encourage an expansion of these capacities in contrast technological progress may hamper the expansion of capacities finally these four paradox effects are exemplified in a germany based case study regarding a photovoltaic project

varying heterogeneity among u s firms facts and implications abstract u s firms stock return volatility rose fivefold from 1971 through 2000 and then reverted to near 1971 levels by 2006 this was driven mainly by a rise and fall in the firm specific rather than systematic component of volatility firm level total factor productivity growth volatility exhibited a similar pattern we hypothesize that firm heterogeneity reflected in firm specific volatility rises as a new general purpose technology gpt propagates across the economy and then ebbs once the gpt is widespread measuring gpt adoption by information technology capital intensity we find robust cross industry empirical evidence supporting the hypothesis

neighborhood effects on speculative behavior abstract speculative behavior plays a key role in numerous markets but little is known about its causes we test for neighborhood effects on speculative behavior using daily lottery sales data from 20 states in the u s in a sample of 160 000 retailers lottery sales in a census block increase by 0 26 on average for each 1 increase in neighboring blocks we test whether this correlation is attributable to contextual effects correlated effects or endogenous effects our analysis suggests that social interaction is an important cause of speculative behavior

the efficiency of used vehicle markets the case of technological obsolescence and differential repair records this paper examines the effect of technological oboslescence differential maintanance expenditures and differential fuel efficiencies on the depreciated value of automobiles our results support the widely held belief that used vehicle markets are efficient we show that the significant decline in the depreciated values of used automobiles is predominantly due to age we also conclude that technological obsolescence causes a once and for all decrease in the depreciated value of used automobiles that for imported vehicle lines differential maintanance expenditures affect depreciated value and that for domestic vehicle lines differential fuel efficiencies impact depreciated value

speculation spillovers this paper demonstrates that speculative activities can be contagious and spill over across markets specifically we test the hypothesis that during china s warrants bubble period speculative activities in the warrants market grabbed investors attention and caused them to trade more speculatively in the underlying stocks consistent with this hypothesis we find that turnover and return volatility of the underlying stocks are positively associated with the warrants unexpected turnover and price deviation from their fundamental values during the previous day controlling for information driven trading and hedging motives and that such a spillover effect is more pronounced when warrants attract more investor attention data as supplemental material are available at http dx doi org 10 1287 mnsc 2014 1914 this paper was accepted by wei xiong finance

do investors overpay for stocks with lottery like payoffs an examination of the returns of otc stocks abstract we study returns on over the counter stocks and find that these returns are extremely negative on average the distribution of otc stock returns is highly positively skewed while many of the stocks in our sample become worthless a few do extremely well we investigate whether this negative return premium can be rationalized by investors preference for positively skewed payoffs we show that the equilibrium model of barberis and huang 2008 provides a plausible explanation for the negative returns we also show that otc stocks that once traded on the regular exchanges perform much better than stocks that originate in the otc markets

the effects of reverse splits on the liquidity of the stock this study investigates the liquidity effects of reverse stock splits using bid ask spread trading volume and the number of nontrading days as proxies for the liquidity of the stock results indicate a decrease in bid ask spread and an increase in trading volume after reverse splits more importantly the number of nontrading days significantly declines following reverse splits for the control group however no such changes are observed these results suggest that reverse splits enhance the liquidity of the stock