assessing the global poverty effects of antimicrobial resistance abstract as a result of antimicrobial resistance amr economies will experience an increase in mortality reduced productivity for labor and the livestock sector and increased health care costs this paper assesses the potential global poverty impacts of amr using a unique macro micro framework to estimate poverty effects of amr price wage and employment results from a dynamic multi country multi sector computable general equilibrium cge model are used in a microsimulation model that integrates household surveys from 104 countries the analysis in this paper advances other studies of amr in two ways 1 it links macro results to a microsimulation model to provide insight on poverty impacts for the world economy and countries of different income levels and 2 it uses a global multi sector model rather than an aggregate global model to generate macroeconomic results with structural details for capturing the economy wide impact within countries and the spread across countries via trade flows relative to a world without amr the progression of antimicrobial resistance is expected to make it more difficult to eliminate extreme poverty potentially adding 24 1 million people to become extremely poor of whom 18 7 million live in low income countries the expected losses during 2015 50 may sum to 85 trillion in gross domestic product and 23 trillion in global exports in present value by 2050 the global gross domestic product could deviate negatively by 3 8 percent from the baseline in the worst case scenario considered because it is a global public bad the optimal policy response will require global cooperation the poverty outcomes induced by amr in all country groups will deteriorate with short sighted isolationist policies moreover assistance from high income countries to improve the economic resiliency of lower income countries will also benefit the higher income countries and world economy in general

monetary policy and stock market dynamics across monetary regimes abstract this paper examines the dynamic linkages between monetary policy and the stock market during the three distinct monetary regimes of burns volcker and greenspan since the 1970s some major findings are the following first in the 1990s it appears that there was a disconnection between federal reserve actions via the federal funds rate and responses by the stock market second the impact of inflation on the stock market did not surface as significant in the later parts of 1980s and the 1990s and third significant asymmetric effects of monetary policy on the stock markets were observed throughout each monetary regime but these were more pronounced during bear markets than bull markets these results suggest that there was no consistent dynamic relationship between monetary policy and the stock market and that the nature of such dynamics was different in each of the three monetary regimes

impact of switching production to bioenergy crops the switchgrass example this paper reports the results from simulations that evaluate the general equilibrium effects of substituting switchgrass a biomass for crude oil in usa petroleum production the new production process is less efficient and usa gdp declines slightly as switchgrass production expands usa agriculture contracts and the world price of cereals increases the world price of crude oil falls as usa import demand declines the net effect of the price and income changes is a general decline in economic welfare moreover the declines in welfare are proportionately greater for developing countries who produce small quantities of agricultural commodities whose prices increase

macroeconomics financial variables and computable general equilibrium models abstract this paper surveys micro macro computable general equilibrium cge models that incorporate asset markets and product and factor markets recent models are designed to analyze the impact on economic performance and the distribution of income in developing economies of structural adjustment and stabilization programs implemented in response to macro shocks these financial cge models add a loanable funds market incorporating a variety of assets to a cge model that already incorporates flow equilibria in product and factor markets these financial models start from tradefocused cge models and also draw on earlier work with micro and macrostructuralist models in specifying the interactions between financial variables and the real side of the economy the paper also compares these models to dynamic macro models both short run adaptive models with lagged adjustment mechanisms and longer run forward looking models the paper discusses the theoretical problems such models face in reconciling micro focused cge models with macro models incorporating dynamic behavior

commercial policy and the domestic carrying trade in this paper the authors examine the economic consequences of existing u s restrictions on trade in domestic water transportation cabotage services they briefly trace the history of u s policy on cabotage the authors also use an applied general equilibrium model of the united states to analyze the effects of the jones act on welfare and on production trade and employment in important upstream and downstream sectors the economic effects of u s maritime policies rank them with u s trade policies like the mfa the automobile and steel quotas of the mid 1980s and agricultural import restraints coauthors are hugh m arce kenneth a reinert and joseph e flynn

on the taxation of human and physical capital in models of endogenous growth abstract this paper studies the effects of factor income taxation and of subsidies to human capital accumulation in models of endogenous growth it examines in particular how these effects depend on the specification of the leisure activity and on the technology and tax treatment of the sector producing human capital it shows that the negative effects of factor income taxes on economic growth are stronger when the human capital sector is a market good under these circumstances a subsidy to human capital accumulation can offset the direct growth effects of labor taxation making it akin to a consumption tax the paper then briefly discusses the normative implications of the analysis for the optimal taxation of factor incomes

global models applied to agricultural and trade policies a review and assessment the continuing process of global integration bears implications for farmers and related supplying and processing industries in all parts of the world but also for the rest of the world economy an assessment of agricultural and trade policy impacts is bound to be complex and is often supported by quantitative modeling analysis this article provides an assessment of the present state of applied modelling in the area of trade and agricultural policies we provide in this paper a comparative assessment of alternative modelling approaches considering a total of 16 partial equilibrium and general equilibrium models the assessment includes theoretical modelling foundations datasets employed and institutional aspects such as model maintenance and dissemination of results a typology of models is provided by structuring the assessment along a clear set of evaluation criteria

asian growth and trade poles india china and east and southeast asia summary using a global general equilibrium trade model this study analyzes the impact on developing countries of 1 the dramatic expansion of trade by india china and an integrated east and southeast e se asia trade bloc and 2 productivity growth in the region china is an integral member of the e se asia bloc with strong links through value chains and trade in intermediate inputs while india is not a part of any trade bloc the analyses consider the importance of their different degrees of integration into regional and global economies focusing on potential complementarities and competition with other developing countries

product differentiation and the treatment of foreign trade in computable general equilibrium models of small economies this paper examines the treatment of exports and imports and external closure rules adopted in recent single country computable general equilibrium models of small economies the paper presents a simple one sector analytic model which captures the major features of the multi sector counterpart used in applied models the paper derives graphical and algebraic solutions to the model and shows that unlike some earlier external closures this one gives rise to a well behaved price taking economy the model is also useful to illustrate the role of elasticities in popular trade theoretic models that include traded and non traded goods

assessing the impacts of china s environmental tax using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model abstract since 2018 china has put into practice the new environmental protection tax law which levies taxes on non greenhouse pollutants with stringent standards to fully study the socioeconomic and environmental impacts of this policy this paper establishes a dynamic country level compute general equilibrium cge model with the electricity sector disaggregated into 5 technologies and 19 major taxable pollutants included five scenarios are developed including the baseline scenario bau the low environmental tax scenario lowet the high environmental tax scenario highet the low environmental tax and low carbon tax scenario lowetc and the high environmental tax and high carbon tax scenario highetc the simulation results show that the environmental tax could help reduce emissions of most kinds of pollutants but bring negative effects on the gross domestic product gdp compared to the bau scenario the gdp loss by 2030 would be 0 10 0 21 0 32 and 0 67 in the lowet highet lowetc and highetc scenarios the emission of sulphur dioxide so2 will decrease by 3 55 7 15 6 70 and 13 01 and the emission of carbon dioxide co2 will be reduced by 2 21 4 62 8 91 and 16 77 the result also shows that the heavy polluted sectors and energy intensive sectors will suffer higher output loss while the clean energy sectors and service sector will experience an increase in the output in the policy scenarios

bilateral free trade agreements and customs unions the impact of the eu republic of south africa free trade agreement on botswana the eu has indicated that after 2008 its trade relationships with developing countries will be dominated by the development of preferential trade agreements although not a consequence of the cotonou agreement the free trade agreement between the eu and the republic of south africa eu rsa fta is clearly one of the first fruits of this approach to trade relationships however there is no evidence that the design of the eu rsa fta incorporated a comprehensive general equilibrium evaluation of the agreement for either the signatories or the other southern african nations the analyses reported here indicate that while the eu rsa fta may substantially benefit the signatories there are appreciable negative impacts for other states especially the rsa s immediate neighbours moreover the reluctance of the eu to fully liberalise trade in food and agriculture commodities results in a major reduction in the benefits for the rsa without ameliorating substantively the adverse implications for other nations

the relative inefficiency of quotas the cheese case the nonequivalence of tariffs and quotas under a wide variety of circumstances is well established in economic theory this study considers heterogeneity as a source of nonequivalence and demonstrates its practical importance where restriction is inevitable the bias of economists in favor of price instruments is not thoroughly grounded this study should help provide a foundation the point of departure from the equivalence model is differentiation of products

oil price shocks and policy responses in the post reform chinese economy this study analyses the impact of the 1986 oil price shock on china and the policy options for accommodating the shock a computable general equilibrium model is used to capture the complex interactions in the chinese economy in response to the shock interpreted in the theoretical framework of the booming sector model the results of the model provide insights on both the real and monetary effects of the shock and suggest that a combination of policy instruments such as a cut in real absorption depreciation of the official exchange rate and tight monetary control are required to facilitate adjustment

on some properties of a trade closure widely used in numerical modelling abstract armington trade models with price taking behaviour and cet and ces functions may have perverse offer curves and nash equilibria in tariff games may not exist in the two country case

seasonal rural labor markets and their relevance to policy analyses in developing countries abstract seasonality is a salient feature of rural livelihoods and particularly within agriculture the demand for labor varies with the seasons and weather in low income countries agriculture employs almost two thirds of the labor force and incomes from labor are a major determinant of welfare therefore an appropriate model representation of rural labor markets is critical when analyzing agricultural and food policies economy wide models are commonly used for ex ante policy analysis but have so far ignored the influence of seasonality implicitly assuming separability of seasonal labor demand and supply this study relaxes that assumption using a computable general equilibrium cge model calibrated to the bhutanese economy as an illustrative case using model setups with and without seasonal labor markets a cereal export ban of india is simulated leading to higher import prices for bhutan results demonstrate that neglecting the influence of seasons on rural labor markets systematically biases model results assuming homogeneity of labor units i e allowing substitution across seasons understates the impacts of policy changes on rural wage rates distorts households labor leisure trade off decisions and overstates agricultural supply response given the widespread use of economy wide models the results are important for understanding the implications of domestic and global policy changes for agriculture and welfare in developing economies

export supply capacity and relative prices in the neoclassical approach to specifying an export supply equation relative prices and capacity are assumed to play a crucial role in domestic firms decisions to supply exports in the keynesian approach the willingness of domestic firms to supply foreign markets is considered to be largely a function of domestic demand pressure keynesian analyses do not allow for the impact of relative prices this paper blends the two approaches in a model in which a firm is assumed to choose first the level of productive capacity and then one period later to determine production and allocation between foreign and domestic markets on the basis of realized prices demand conditions and installed capacity the conclusion both prices and capacity are significant determinants of export supply

quantifying the impact of services liberalization in a developing country the authors consider how service liberalization differs from goods liberalization in terms of welfare the level and composition of output and factor prices within a developing economy in this case tunisia despite recent movements toward liberalization tunisian service sectors remain largely closed to foreign participation and are provided at high cost relative to many developing nations the authors develop a computable general equilibrium cge model of the tunisian economy with multiple products and services and three trading partners they model goods liberalization as the unilateral removal of product tariffs restraints on services trade involve both restrictions on cross border supply mode 1 in the gats and on foreign ownership through foreign direct investment mode 3 in the gats the former are modeled as tariff equivalent price wedges while the latter are comprised of both monopoly rent distortions arising from imperfect competition among domestic producers and inefficiency costs arising from a failure of domestic service providers to adopt least cost practices they find that goods trade liberalization yields a gain in aggregate welfare and reorients production toward sectors of benchmark comparative advantage however a reduction of services barriers in a way that permits greater competition through foreign direct investment generates larger welfare gains service liberalization also requires lower adjustment costs measured in terms of sectoral movement of workers than does goods trade liberalization and it tends to increase economic activity in all sectors and raise the real returns to both capital and labor the overall welfare gains of comprehensive service liberalization amount to more than 5 percent of initial consumption the bulk of these gains come from opening markets for finance business services and telecommunications because these are key inputs into all sectors of the economy their liberalization cuts costs and drives larger efficiency gains overall the results point to the potential importance of deregulating services provision for economic development

external shocks purchasing power parity and the equilibrium real exchange rate two approaches are commonly used to determine the equilibrium real exchange rate in a country after external shocks purchasing power parity ppp calculations and the salter swan tradables nontradables model there are theoretical and empirical problems with both approaches and tensions between them in this article the authors resolve these theoretical and empirical difficulties by presenting a model which is a generalization of the salter swan model and which incorporates imperfect substitutes for both imports and exports within the framework of this model the definition of the real exchange rate is consistent both with that of the ppp approach and with that of the salter swan model suitably extended the model however is capable of capturing a richer set of phenomena including terms of trade shocks and changes in foreign capital inflows it also provides a practical way to estimate changes in the equilibrium real exchange rate requiring little more information than is required to do ppp calculations the results are consistent with those of multisector computable general equilibrum models which generalize the trade specification of the small model

external sector closing rules in applied general equilibrium models abstract this paper examines formulations of external sector behavior adopted in some of the recent applied general equilibrium models in many cases these models are constructed for single economies and the model builder attempts to use a convenient external sector specification to close the model issues and difficulties with export demand and import supply functions for foreigners which satisfy trade balance and the modeling of small economy price taking behavior are explored

global models of trade in agriculture and related environmental modelling a review and assessment the continuing process of global integration bears implications for farmers and related supplying and processing industries in all parts of the world but also for the rest of the world economy an assessment of agricultural and trade policy impacts is bound to be complex and is often supported by quantitative modeling analysis this article provides an assessment of the present state of applied modelling in the area of trade and agricultural policies we provide in this paper a comparative assessment of alternative modelling approaches considering a total of 16 partial equilibrium and general equilibrium models the assessment includes theoretical modelling foundations datasets employed and institutional aspects such as model maintenance and dissemination of results a typology of models is provided by structuring the assessment along a clear set of evaluation criteria

the growth effects of tax rates in the oecd this paper explores the merits of macro and micro based tax rate measures within an open economy fiscal policy and growth model using annual data for 15 oecd countries we find statistically small non robust long run growth effects of macro based average tax rates on capital income and consumption but some evidence for average labor income tax effects changes in micro marginal income tax rates at both the personal and corporate levels yield statistically robust gdp responses of modest size both domestic and foreign corporate taxes appear relevant in general tax effects on gdp operate largely via factor productivity rather than factor accumulation

dynamic analysis of an endogenous growth model with public capital this paper develops an endogenous growth model with productive public capital along with private capital in a spirit similar to that of r j barro 1990 since the authors model includes two stock variables it has transitional dynamics unlike most of the previous studies on endogenous growth including barro s where concerns are restricted to the steady state analysis first they show that the transitional path is unique and stable second the character of the transitional path is explored third the authors show that the optimal tax rate is smaller than the rate that maximizes the national growth rate with a log linear utility function copyright 1993 by the editors of the scandinavian journal of economics