natural resources national income and economic growth in africa abstract because standard measures of aggregate income such as gross domestic product gdp do not account for natural resource depletion their use as gauges of economic performance tends to exaggerate the benefits of resource extraction accounting for natural resource depletion in 18 african countries indicates different patterns of growth than those suggested by gdp figures use of the revised measures in analyses of the link between exports and growth suggests that export expansion may generate increases in measured gdp without stimulating increased production in contrast real exchange rate alignment is correlated with growth in both conventional gdp and the revised accounts

the missing dark matter in the wealth of nations and its implications for global imbalances current account statistics may not be good indicators of the evolution of a country s net foreign assets and of its external position s sustainability the value of existing assets may vary independently of current account flows so called return privileges may allow some countries to obtain abnormal returns and mismeasurement of fdi unreported trade of insurance or liquidity services and debt relief may also play a role we analyse the relevant evidence in a large set of countries and periods and examine measures of net foreign assets obtained by capitalizing the net investment income and then estimating the current account from the changes in this stock of foreign assets we call dark matter the difference between our measure of net foreign assets and that measured by official statistics we find it to be important for many countries analyse its relationship with theoretically relevant factors and note that the resulting perspective tends to make global net asset positions appear relatively stable ricardo hausmann and federico sturzenegger

the contribution of tourism development to economic growth in the korean economy abstract this study investigates the causal relations between tourism growth and economic expansion for the korean economy by using engle and granger two stage approach and a bivariate vector autoregression var model two principle results emerge from this study first the results of a cointegration test indicate that there is no long run equilibrium relation between two series second the outcomes of granger causality test imply the one way causal relationship of economic driven tourism growth the hypothesis of tourism led economic growth is not held in the korean economy this consequence is supported by testing the sensitivity of causality test under different lag selections along with the optimal lag

technical efficiency and scope economies in hospitals the main purposes are to develop a method for measuring the economies of scope which involves the use of non parametric production frontiers and does not require information on input prices and to apply this method to individual hospital data drawn from a sample of spanish hospitals the results confirm the presence of technical inefficiencies and also of potential and non exploited economies of scope the combination that produces most economies of scope is that of gynaecology and paediatrics

a test for subadditivity of the cost function with an application to the bell system stable url http links jstor org sici sici 0002 8282 28198409 2974 3a4 3c615 3aatfsot 3e2 0 co 3b2 rthe american economic review is currently published by american economic association your use of the jstor archive indicates your acceptance of jstor s terms and conditions of use available athttp www jstor org about terms html jstor s terms and conditions of use provides in part that unless you have obtainedprior permission you may not download an entire issue of a journal or multiple copies of articles and you may use content inthe jstor archive only for your personal non commercial use please contact the publisher regarding any further use of this work publisher contact information may be obtained athttp www jstor org journals aea html each copy of any part of a jstor transmission must contain the same copyright notice that appears on the screen or printedpage of such transmission the jstor archive is a trusted digital repository providing for long term preservation and access to leading academicjournals and scholarly literature from around the world the archive is supported by libraries scholarly societies publishers and foundations it is an initiative of jstor a not for profit organization with a mission to help the scholarly community takeadvantage of advances in technology for more information regarding jstor please contact support jstor org http www jstor orgmon jul 2 16 52 19 2007

vector autoregression cointegration and causality testing for causes of the british industrial revolution the existence timing and possible causes of the british industrial revolution are considered by investigating the time series properties of industrial production and various explanatory variables utilising two types of robust cointegration based causality tests we argue that domestic forces notably technological progress shaped the industrial revolution whereas overseas trade expansion was mainly a consequence of industrial growth results from granger type var tests are contrasted with those of toda and phillips working paper 91 07 university of western australia 1991b where the latter manifest some of the potential problems raised by the authors when applied to a data set of this type an understanding of the possible causes of the first industrial revolution may shed more general light on the forces promoting industrialization and growth to the extent that the first industrial revolution offers a template exports appear not to provide a simple pathway to industrialization

complementarity and external linkages the strategies of the large firms in biotechnology in biotechnology large firms enter into different kinds of linkages with universities and small medium sized research intensive firms we test the hypothesis that the strategies of external linkage of the large firms with other parties are complementary to one another we show that if any two strategies are complementary i e undertaking more of one strategy raises the marginal value of the other then they are positively correlated using data for a sample large us european and japanese chemical and pharmaceutical producers we find that the strategies above are positively correlated even after controlling for firm specific characteristics

exports and economic growth evidence from 19th century europe abstract cointegration and granger causality tests on data for six european countries from around the middle of the 19th century to 1913 show that exports and gnp were cointegrated and granger causally related with export led growth in italy norway and sweden

is the export led growth hypothesis valid for canada empirical evidence linking exports to economic growth has been mixed and inconclusive this study re examines the export led growth elg hypothesis for canada by testing for granger causality from exports to national output growth using vector error correction models vecm and the augmented vector autoregressive var methodology developed in toda and yamamoto 1995 application of recent developments in time series modelling and the inclusion of relevant variables omitted in previous studies help to clarify the contradictory results from prior studies on the canadian economy the empirical results suggest that a long run steady state exists among the model s six variables and that granger causal flow is unidirectional from real exports to real gdp jel classification f43 c32 est ce que l hypothese de la croissance engendree par les exportations est valide pour le canada les resultats empiriques des etudes tentant de montrer le lien entre les exportations et la croissance economique sont mixtes et ne contiennent pas de resultats concluants cet article re examine l hypothese dans le cas du canada en testant la causalitea la granger pour les exportations et la croissance du produit national en utilisant les modeles vecm et la methodologie var developpes par toda et yamamoto 1995 l application de certains developpements recents dans l analyse des series chronologiques et l inclusion de variables pertinentes omises dans les etudes anterieures aident a mettre de l ordre dans les resultats contradictoires des etudes anterieures portant sur l economie canadienne les resultats empiriques suggerent qu un regime permanent existe entre les six variables du modele et que la causalitea la granger est unidirectionnelle des exportations reelles vers le pib reel

conditions for economies of scope in the presence of fixed costs this article establishes necessary and sufficient conditions for economies of scope to exist while taking into account the presence or absence of both local cost complementarity and product specific fixed costs in some circumstances the test developed here could show that economies of scope to not exist despite local cost complementarity or alternatively despite the existence of fixed costs conversely the test could show that fixed costs are sufficient to generate economies of scope despite local cost anticomplementarity

learning and the time interdependence of costa rican exports abstract exports may enhance learning through production induced learning by doing learning to export by doing and flows of information from customers we provide evidence on the learning effects of export destination for costa rica for 1955 through 1980 we examine granger causality results and export trends to determine relationships between exports to the central american common market cacm the rest of the south and the north increasing exports to the cacm appear to promote learning in machinery leather and intermediate manufactures we also find that the cacm redirects some exports away from northern markets probably with damaging consequences

on the export led growth hypothesis the econometric evidence from china the export led growth hypothesis is tested by estimating an augmented growth equation on the basis of times series data from china the granger no causality procedure developed by toda and yamamoto journal of econometrics 66 1995 was applied to test the causality link between exports and economic growth in a var system three distinct features in this paper stand out compared to earlier studies on china first we have gone beyond the traditional two variable relationship by building a var model in the production function context to avoid a possible specification bias second we follow riezman whiteman and summers empirical economics 21 1996 to test the export led growth hypothesis while controlling for the growth of imports to avoid producing a spurious causality result third we test the sensitivity of causality test results under different lag structures along with the choice of optimal lags in particular the methodology developed by toda and yamamoto 1995 is expected to improve the stan

export led growth and structural change evidence from malaysia many studies have tried to establish the causal link between export expansion and economic growth this contribution is to recognize that structural changes will change the sources of growth and this will affect the export growth relationship a country case study approach is used focusing on malaysia a country with one of the world s highest sustained growth rates and a long history of commodity trade we use var analysis of malaysian quarterly trade and gdp growth from 1965 to 1996 trade data are disaggregated into primary and manufactures exports and causality tests are applied to the entire period as well as two subperiods 150 the 1965 1501980 period when policy emphasis was on import substitution and the 1981 1501996 period when policies favoured export led growth statistical tests confirm export led growth for the full period and for the period to 1980 but tests on the 1981 1501996 period show growth causing exports primary exports had a stronger direct impact on economic growth than manufactu

complementarity coordination and compatibility the role of fixed costs in the economics of systems abstract we analyze industry equilibrium and incentive to compatibility when goods produced by different producers generate utility only when consumed as component parts of a system we assume the presence of two systems each composed of some basic component and a set of differentiated complementary products the combination of complementarity between the two components of the system and of fixed costs in the production of the complementary product results in a form of network effect we focus on the role played by the size of the fixed costs in the production of the complementary products in determining the size of this system effect and by this means the structure and types of equilibria that may be observed monopolistic or duopolistic symmetric or asymmetric we also highlight the consequence of the same fixed costs for the private and social incentives to render the systems compatible

exports and growth is the export led growth hypothesis valid for provincial economies this paper re examines the export led growth hypothesis using provincial data unlike other studies that concentrate on country level data this study investigates the validity of the hypothesis for four largest provinces in korea seoul kyunggee kyungnam and pusan the causal implication of the export led growth hypothesis is generally supported for all provinces in the sample the framework of analysis is two and four variable autoregressive models that include provincial exports provincial output terms of trade and national output shocks granger causal orderings from exports to output growth are generally supported in bivariate causal models in multivariate models variance decompositions and impulse response functions further indicate that export growth has a significant impact on output growth for all provinces although a feedback effect from output to export growth appears in seoul and the kyungnam province

a dynamic migration model with uncertainty we study a dynamic version of the harris todaro migration model where a finite population of infinitely lived bayesian agents choose consumption and migration decision rules as a function of their histories the agents do not know the production functions in the two sectors and learn about them through wage draws that they receive from the stochastic production functions the government knows the true production functions but is uninformed about the agents beliefs and the actual wage draws they observe the government maximizes its welfare function using wage subsidies in the two sectors and a migration tax we solve the agents dynamic programming problem and then use the solution to solve the government s dynamic programming problem we study the effects of government policies on the population distribution and illustrate the model by numerically solving a particular parametric example

exports investment efficiency and economic growth in ldc an empirical investigation this study seeks to analyse the relationship between exports and growth for 19 less developed countries it utilizes multivariate causality analysis based on the error correction model to address several important hypotheses the results indicate that when exports have a causal influence in the development process that in general this is the result of their effect on both efficiency and accumulation in addition improvements in output and capital accumulation in an economy seem to have just as much of an influence on exports as exports have on output and capital accumulation finally the growth process in east asia seems to be quite different from that in southeast asia

in search of the exchange risk premium a six currency test assuming mean variance optimization abstract a number of authors examining deviations of actual rates of currency depreciation from forward discounts have claimed to find evidence of risk premiums if these deviations are indeed partly due to risk premiums rather than being entirely due to expectational errors then they should be systematically related to those variables on which risk premiums are thought to depend finance theory tells us that if investors optimize with respect to mean and variance the risk premium depends in a specific way on 1 the supplies of assets denominated in the various currencies 2 the variance covariance matrix of the rates of return and 3 the coefficient of risk aversion the null hypothesis of this paper is that the coefficient of risk aversion is zero countries assets are perfect substitutes and risk premiums are nonexistent the alternative hypothesis is that rates of return are systematically related to asset supplies by a macroeconomic portfolio balance function the maximum likelihood technique used dominates previous attempts to find such a relationship in that the parameters of the portfolio balance function are constrained to depend on the variance covariance matrix as the finance theory says they should on the other hand the technique also dominates previous applications of the finance theory in that the expected returns are allowed to vary over time as the macroeconomic portfolio balance theory says they should the paper s finding is a statistical inability to reject the null hypothesis for a portfolio of six currencies although this could be due to low power in the test

the cost structure of american research universities 1597 this study estimates translog variable cost functions for 147 american doctorate granting universities accounting for three major products of these institutions undergraduate and graduate instruction and research explicit measures of research output and quality are employed evidence is found for considerable economies of scale for the average institution as well as economies of scope related to the joint production of undergraduate and graduate instruction the public or private ownership of an institution is not significant for the explanation of variable costs the intensity of state regulation in the public sector does not have a significant impact on production efficiency copyright 1991 by mit press

specialization diversification and productivity a panel data analysis of rice farms in korea this article examines the microeconomics of productivity associated with specialization diversification in production activities with an application to korean rice farms korean rice farms tend to be very small and highly specialized our analysis examines the productivity effects associated with both farm size and farm specialization diversification in korean agriculture relying on farm level panel data the analysis studies farm productivity in a multi input multi output context accounting not only for changes in inputs and technical change in rice production but also for the role of diversification in the production of other crops in current and previous periods we find positive but small productivity gains from farm diversification these gains come mostly from complementarity effects across farm outputs with minimal effect of scale economies the positive complementarity effects work against nonconvexity effects which provide strong productivity incentives for rice farms to specialize

relationship between agricultural growth and farm imports in ldcs a sims causality test based on 35 countries abstract previous empirical studies on the relationship between agricultural growth and farm imports in the ldcs suffer from serious methodological defects which to some extent may invalidate their results and interpretations this study used sims causality test to examine interactions between agricultural output and agricultural imports for 35 ldcs individually it was found that there was no causality from agricultural output to agricultural imports for a majority of countries under study for countries where agricultural growth did have a causal effect on agricultural imports the effect was positive in some countries and negative in others

the missing wealth of nations are europe and the u s net debtors or net creditors this paper shows that official statistics substantially underestimate the net foreign asset positions of rich countries because they fail to capture most of the assets held by households in offshore tax havens drawing on systematic anomalies in portfolio investment positions and a unique swiss dataset i find that 8 of the global financial wealth of households is held in tax havens 6 of which goes unrecorded on the basis of plausible assumptions accounting for unrecorded assets turns the eurozone officially the world s second largest net debtor into a net creditor it also reduces the u s net debt significantly the results shed new light on global imbalances and challenge the widespread view that after a decade of poor to rich capital flows external assets are now in poor countries and debts in rich countries i provide concrete proposals to improve international investment statistics

causality between export growth and industrial development empirical evidence from the nics a comment abstract in a recent article chow 1987 argued that his empirical evidence supports the hypothesis that export growth causes industrial development in this comment i point out several serious shortcomings of chow s analysis

export instability and the domestic economy questions of causality the conventional view concerning the impact of export instability on the domestic economies of developing countries is one of pessimism export instability is thought to adversely affect the short run stability and longer run growth of income empirical evidence on these matters is however inconclusive this article applies a granger sims reduced form approach to examining whether export instability generates short run instability in domestic income for each of a sample of 20 trade dependent countries the results obtained strongly support the contention that export instability induces short run macroeconomic instability

spatial allocation and the shadow pricing of product characteristics abstract the paper considers an industry transforming primary commodities farm products into processed commodities food products it focuses on the allocation of embedded characteristics carbohydrate protein etc both across space and among commodities the approach generates a spatial competitive market equilibrium of production consumption transformation and trade for both primary and processed commodities along with the spatial distribution of shadow prices for the product characteristics the model provides a basis for analyzing the allocation and pricing of agricultural products food products and characteristics in spatial markets the empirical usefulness of the model is illustrated in the context of regional resource allocation in the u s dairy sector

the value of control in emerging markets when a developed country multinational firm acquires majority control of a firm in an emerging market there is an economically large and statistically significant increase in the acquiring firm s stock price in 1986 2006 developed market acquirers experienced positive and significant abnormal returns of 1 16 on average over a three day event window positive acquirer returns and dollar value gains appear unique to emerging market mergers and acquisitions and are not replicated when the same developed market acquirers take over firms in developed markets the size of the stock price increase is more pronounced a the weaker the contracting environment in the emerging market and b for industries with high asset intangibility the author 2009 published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies all rights reserved for permissions please e mail journals permissions oxfordjournals org oxford university press

institutions of higher education as multi product firms economies of scale and scope a multiple output cost function is estimated for institutions of higher education in the united states employing data for 1981 82 the authors flexible fixed cost quadratic function includes three outputs undergraduate teaching graduate teaching and research grants and one input price average faculty salaries results indicate the existence of scope economies at least up to a point for both public and private institutions of higher education ray economies of scale are more pronounced in the private sector and product specific economies of scale are observed only in the public sector for research and graduate teaching copyright 1989 by mit press

economies of diversification a generalization and decomposition of economies of scope abstract the paper investigates the benefits of diversification for a multi product firm it examines economies of diversification reflecting the cost reduction associated with producing outputs in an integrated firm compared to specialized firms the analysis applies under complete specialization as well as partial specialization when firms are not fully specialized and or when the specialization scheme does not cover all outputs it decomposes economies of diversification into four additive parts a part measuring complementarity among outputs a part reflecting economies of scale a part reflecting convexity and a part reflecting the role of fixed cost this new decomposition appears useful in investigating how scale effects complementarity effects and convexity effects can contribute to economies of scope in a multiproduct firm and helps generate valuable insights into the economics of specialization for multiproduct firms

is the export led growth hypothesis valid for australia the relationship between exports and output is examined using australian annual data over the period 1900 1993 cointegration and causality testing fails to detect the existence of a long run or short run relationship between the two variables these results are explained by restoring to the structural time series modelling approach which shows that while the output series exhibits cyclical variation the exports series does not have this property it is concluded that the export led growth hypothesis is not valid for australia

r d scope economies and plant performance in this article i present an alternative specification of knowledge production and derive a structural econometric model with some desirable properties i provide a simple and less data intensive framework for empirical studies of the relationship between firm performance and r d the main empirical findings are as follows i r d has a positive effect on performance ii the appropriable part of knowledge capital depreciates at a rate of 2 iii there are significant spillover effects of r d across lines of business within a firm and iv there are significant spillovers in r d across firms that belong to the same interlocking group of firms

exports imports and economic growth in south korea and japan a tale of two economies this article investigates the relationship between exports imports and economic growth for south korea and japan by constructing a vector autoregression var model causality is examined between real gross domestic product gdp real exports and real imports several principal results emerge from the empirical work first the three variables are cointegrated for both countries implying that a long run steady state exists second there is evidence of bidirectional causality between imports and economic growth for both countries finally japan seems to experience export led growth while gdp growth in south korea has a negative effect on export growth these contrasting findings could result from export goods in japan exhibiting greater nonprice competitive aspects although their success fails to trigger a virtuous circle since growth fails to lead to increased exports while for south korea output growth leads to a decrease in export growth suggesting a strong domestic market

will there be a dollar crisis almost everyone believes that the us current account deficit must eventually end and that this end will involve dollar depreciation however many believe that this depreciation will take place gradually this paper shows that any process of gradual dollar decline fast enough to prevent the accumulation of implausible levels of us external debt would impose capital losses on investors much larger than they currently expect as a result there will at some point have to be a wile e coyote moment a point at which expectations are revised and the dollar drops sharply it is much less clear however whether this crisis will produce macroeconomic problems paul krugman

the long run impact of foreign shocks to the austrian economy an analysis at a sectoral level this paper investigates the long run impact of foreign shocks on the austrian economy which is an example of a small open economy with a fixed echange rate regime the analysis is done in a multisectoral vector autoregression framework foreign shocks involve inovations in gnp of european oecd countries oil prices effective echange rate and interest rates sectoral responses appear to be very different in particular shocks to european oecd gnp have a high long run impact on sectoral output especially in export dependent sectors this supports the hypothesis of export led growth

the role of exports fdi and imports in development evidence from sub saharan african countries the disappointing economic performance of sub saharan african ssa economies in the late 1980s prompted reforms in foreign trade and foreign direct investment fdi in the early 1990s using the autoregressive distributed lag ardl approach and pedroni panel estimation procedures that allow for heterogeneity this study found that exports and fdi have a significant impact on economic growth granger type causality tests show the interrelatedness of exports fdi imports and income variables the results also provide evidence of a two stage causal chain of exports imports and income this article calls for more market oriented policy reforms in ssa countries

financial development international capital flows and aggregate output abstract we develop a tractable two country overlapping generations model and show that cross country differences in financial development can explain three recent empirical patterns of international capital flows financial capital flows from relatively poor to relatively rich countries while foreign direct investment flows in the opposite direction net capital flows go from poor to rich countries despite its negative net international investment positions the united states receives a positive net investment income international capital mobility affects output in each country directly through the size of domestic investment and indirectly through the aggregate saving rate under certain conditions the indirect effect may dominate the direct effect so that international capital mobility raises output in the poor country and globally although net capital flows are in the direction to the rich country we also explore the welfare and distributional effects of international capital flows and show that the patterns of capital flows may reverse along the convergence process of a developing country our model adds to the understanding of the costs and the benefits of international capital mobility in the presence of domestic financial frictions

the effect of the asian financial crisis on the relationships among open macroeconomic factors for asian countries this study investigates the effect of asian financial crisis on the relationships among exchange rate volatility export import and productivity for taiwan korea malaysia and indonesia cointegration tests show no change for the long run equilibrium relationship among these variables throughout the crisis granger causality finds that some exogeneity orderings alter from pre to post crisis periods for the countries considered impulse response functions irs for the pre crisis period demonstrate the primary importance of productivity then second importance of export for the post crisis period oscillatory paths around zero of the irs imply an ambiguous finding for the direction of effect and relative exogeneity among variables studied the variance decompositions in export for taiwan korea and malaysia and in productivity for malaysia and indonesia did not change from the pre crisis to the post crisis era however most of the rest of the forecast error variances in variables were decomposed in

the validity of the elg hypothesis in the mena region cointegration and error correction model analysis the export led growth elg hypothesis is examined for nine middle east and north africa mena countries in three variable vector autoregressive and error correction models when considering total exports the results reject the elg hypothesis in almost all of these countries when only manufactured exports are examined no support is found for elg in countries with relatively low shares of manufactured exports in total merchandise exports but strong support in countries with relatively high shares these findings suggest that promoting exports may contribute to economic growth only after a certain threshold of manufactured exports has been reached

nonparametric analysis of cost complementarities in the telecommunications industry the market structure of the telephone industry has been the focus of a large body of empirical research following the divestiture of at t in 1984 using data on local exchange carriers lecs i estimate the total cost function of lecs operating between 1988 and 1995 first i show that cost complementarities can be nonparametrically identi ed in many situations where economies of scope and subadditivity which were the focus of previous empirical research cannot be identi ed next i propose a feasible estimation model taking into account all the properties that a cost function needs to satisfy according to economic theory the telephone companies are treated as multi product rms producing two outputs local and toll calls the results support the assumption that cost complementarities exist in the production of these two outputs the amounts of complementarities are computed and shown to be bigger for small companies

technology capital and the us current account the u s bureau of economic analysis bea estimates the return on investments of foreign subsidiaries of u s multinational companies over the period 1982 2006 averaged 9 4 percent annually after taxes u s subsidiaries of foreign multinationals averaged only 3 2 percent two factors distort bea returns technology capital and plant specific intangible capital technology capital is accumulated know how from intangible investments in r d brands and organizations that can be used in foreign and domestic locations used abroad it generates profits for foreign subsidiaries with no foreign direct investment fdi plantspecific intangible capital in foreign subsidiaries is expensed abroad lowering current profits on fdi and increasing future profits we develop a multicountry general equilibrium model with an essential role for fdi and apply the bea s methodology to construct economic statistics for the model economy we estimate that mismeasurement of intangible investments accounts for over 60 percent of the difference in bea returns

unit roots and cointegration in estimating causality between exports and economic growth empirical evidence from the asean countries abstract this paper utilizes cointegration and error correction representation methodology in estimating the long run behavioral relationship between exports and economic growth in the asean countries

growth and exchange rate volatility a panel data analysis the aim of this article is to assess the role of real exchange rate rer volatility on long run economic growth for a set of 82 advanced and emerging economies using a panel data set ranging from 1970 to 2009 with an accurate measure for exchange rate volatility the results for the two step system generalized method of moments gmm panel growth models show that a more less volatile rer has a significant negative positive impact on economic growth the results are also robust for different model specifications

south korean and taiwanese development and the new institutional economics the publication of books by both alice amsden and robert wade provide an opportune moment to reflect on the study of east asian development after an initial surge of interest beginning in the 1970s the field has reached a plateau and scholars recently have cast a wide net in searching for ways to extend the field in assessing the state of the art regarding the economic development of the east asian newly industrialized countries nics this review will treat three themes first i will argue that the focus on states versus markets is becoming stale and that much of the scholarly interest lies in the politics behind the economics second i argue that political scientists have underexplored the historical origins of korean and taiwanese capitalism and that such attention promises to strengthen both theories and explanations of development third i argue that the international system has been more important in promoting development in east asia than accounts in the first wave have recognized the purpose of this review is to assess the field reveal

foreign growth and domestic performance in a small open economy abstract in this paper we develop a small open economy model of trade with endogenous growth induced by human capital accumulation to analyze the effects of foreign growth on the domestic growth performance stronger foreign growth has the potential to increase domestic growth through a change in the terms of trade for this to happen the domestic attitude toward saving as indicated by the intertemporal elasticity of substitution plays a crucial role for economies with sufficiently thrifty consumers changes in the terms of trade generate funds for domestic investment thereby generating enhanced long term growth if however domestic consumers are less prone to thriftiness foreign growth may lead to lower domestic output growth this result suggests that foreign growth is not necessarily a substitute for a weak domestic attitude toward saving

an empirical investigation of the causal relationship between openness and economic growth in china this study investigates the causal relationship between openness and economic growth in china the integration and cointegration properties of the data are analysed and the models of granger sims geweke and hsiao are used to identify a bi directional causal relationship between gnp and exports plus imports this bi directional causation is consistent with china s development strategy of protected export promotion

cross border returns differentials were the u s to persistently earn substantially more on its foreign investments u s claims than foreigners earn on their u s investments u s liabilities the likelihood that the current environment of sizeable global imbalances will evolve in a benign manner increases however we find that the returns differential of u s claims over u s liabilities is far smaller than previously reported and importantly is near zero for portfolio equity and debt securities for portfolio securities we confirm our finding using a separate dataset on the actual foreign equity and bond portfolios of u s investors and the u s equity and bond portfolios of foreign investors in the context of equity and bond portfolios we find no evidence that the u s can count on earning more on its claims than it pays on its liabilities finally we reconcile our finding of a near zero returns differential with observed patterns of cumulated current account deficits the net international investment position and the net income balance jel codes f3

the economic case for international labour standards this paper explores the economic case for international labour standards granting workers rights of free association and collective bargaining confers both static and dynamic economic efficiencies static efficiencies refer to one time gains from improvements in economic practice dynamic efficiencies refer to gains from improvements to the growth path resulting from a shift away from a low road development path to a high road path these efficiencies raise wages employment and output in developing countries and they can also benefit workers in developed countries labour standards are an institutional mechanism for raising the quality of growth in both developing and developed countries in this sense they are a win win institution

cointegration causality and export led growth in mexico 1895 1992 abstract cointegration and granger causality tests show that real exports and real gdp in mexico over 1895 1992 were cointegrated and there was a significant and positive granger causal relationship running from exports to economic growth

causality between exports and economic growth abstract this paper utilizes granger causality tests in investigating the relationship between exports and national income from a consistent data set for 47 developing countries in africa new empirical results as well as suggestions for future research are presented

measuring and decomposing economies of diversification an application to biogas fuelled cogeneration plants in austria abstract this paper investigates the existence and the degree of economies of diversification for small scaled renewable fuelled cogeneration systems using 2014 cross sectional data from 67 austrian biogas plants it is the first study applying the recently introduced concept of economies of diversification proposed by chavas and kim 2010 which is a generalization and decomposition of economies of scope economies of diversification are decomposed into three additive parts a part measuring complementarity among outputs a part reflecting economies of scale a part reflecting convexity in addition this paper extends the decomposition introduced by chavas and kim 2010 in such a way that the contribution of each input to economies of diversification and its components can be investigated the results indicate substantial cost savings from diversification for very small scaled plants 100 kwel most of the cost savings come from scale economies for larger plants 250 kwel positive complementarity and convexity effects are the main source of economies of diversification and outweigh the negative effect from scale diseconomies in addition to substantial fuel feedstock cost reductions significant costs saving effects from the jointness in labour and other inputs positively contribute to the complementarity effect while on average capital and labour costs positively contribute to economies of scale feedstock costs work in the direction of diseconomies of scale

re examining export led growth hypothesis a multivariate cointegration analysis for india this paper re examines the export led growth elg hypothesis using a vector autoregressive var model by considering the relationship between real gdp real exports and terms of trade for india during the period 1961 93 in re examining the elg hypothesis this study perhaps for the first time employs a multivariate framework using johansen s model selection and maximum likelihood cointegration procedure the results sugest that there is one long run equilibrium relationship among the three variables and the causal relationship flows from the growth in gdp and terms of trade to the growth in exports the causality from exports to gdp appears to be a short run phenomenon suggesting that the recent export promotion strategies adopted in india have the potential of bearing growth in the future

externalities and complementarities in telecommunications dynamics abstract this paper focuses on the complementarities between the international diffusion of computers and the variance in the levels of telecommunications revenue per installed line in 30 countries the economic analysis elaborates on the marshallian notion of derived demand the hypothesis is that the increasing variance in the levels of telecommunications traffic per line across countries is a consequence of the growing levels of computer communication which in turn can be approximated by the diffusion of computers empirical analysis confirms the strong positive correlation between computer density and telecommunications intensity

causality between export growth and industrial development empirial evidence from the nics abstract this paper investigates the causal relationship between export growth and industrial development in eight newly industrializing countries nics results of sims causality test show that for most of the nics there is a strong bidirectional causality between the growth of exports and industrial development these findings support the export led growth strategy in that expansion in exports not only promote the growth of national income but also lead to structural transformation of the developing countries

economies of diversification in the banking industry abstract this paper defines a new measure economies of diversification to examine the cost effect of product line expansion this measure is a special case of expansion path subadditivity and contains economies of scope as a special case a nonparametric frontier technique which isolates the effects of inefficiency and scale is used to measure economies of diversification applied to a set of 468 u s depository institutions operating in 1984 we find slight diseconomies of diversification diseconomies of diversification and inefficiency due to the overutilization of resources are found to be more important determinants of bank costs than is the failure to operate at optimal scale

what drives the global land rush the authors review evidence regarding the size and evolution of the land rush in the wake of the 2007 8 boom in agricultural commodity prices and authors study the determinants of foreign land acquisition for large scale agricultural investment the use of data on bilateral investment relationships to estimate gravity models of transnational land intensive investments confirms the central role of agro ecological potential as a pull factor however this finding contrasts the standard literature insofar as the quality of the destination country s business climate is insignificant and weak tenure security is associated with increased interest for investors to acquire land in the country policy implications are discussed

thousands of models one story current account imbalances in the global economy the global financial crisis has led to a revival of the empirical literature on current account imbalances this paper contributes to that literature by investigating the importance of evaluating model and parameter uncertainty prior to reaching any firm conclusion we explore three alternative econometric strategies examining all models selecting a few and combining them all out of thousands or indeed millions of models a story emerges the chance that current accounts were aligned with fundamentals prior to the financial crisis appears to be minimal

exports growth and causality in ldcs abstract using akaike s optimal lag criterion in a granger causality test the causal relationship between export growth and economic growth and vice versa is re examined for 20 countries it is argued that earlier analyses which ignore optimal lags in granger or sims causality tests suffer from certain shortcomings which are overcome by the present approach the results suggest some support for the export promotion hypothesis especially in the case of well known nics and thus differ from previous applications of granger test which did not adopt an optimum lag criterion and which showed no causality from export growth to economic growth in such cases however they are inconclusive in evaluating competing hypotheses

exports export composition and growth cointegration and causality evidence for malaysia this paper comprehensively tests the export led growth elg hypothesis for malaysia for the period 1955 90 using cointegration and causality testing based on hsiao s synthesis of the granger test and akaike s minimum final prediction error criterion the results provide support for the elg hypothesis aggregate exports granger cause real gdp and non export gdp this relationship is found to be driven by manufactured exports rather than by traditional exports

exports and economic growth in industrialized countries the prima facie causal relationships between growth exports and factor inputs capital and labour are investigated in five industrialized countries germany itlay japan united kingdom and united states over the period 1960 87 by analysing a four variable vector autoregressive var model for each country our results indicate that germany and japan experienced export led growth reverse causality between exports and growth is found in the case of the us and uk while to causal relationship between exports and output is found for itlay

cointegration causality and export led growth in portugal 1865 1985 abstract this paper considers the relationship between cointegration and causality and uses tests of cointegration as pre tests for granger tests of causality such methods are utilized on portuguese data 1865 1985 where the export led growth hypothesis is rejected in favour of reverse causality

the external wealth of nations measures of foreign assets and liabilities for industrial and developing countries abstract although capital flows are closely monitored surprisingly little is known about the accumulated stocks of foreign assets and liabilities held by various countries especially in the developing world this paper constructs estimates of foreign assets and liabilities and their equity and debt subcomponents for a sample of 67 industrial and developing countries it characterizes the stylized facts of international balance sheets and asks whether there are trends in net foreign asset positions and shifts in debt equity ratios over time finally it explores the sensitivity of estimated stock positions to the treatment of valuation effects not captured in balance of payments data

economic growth export and external debt causality the case of african countries empirical investigation of the export driven economic growth hypothesis has provided mixed results in a bivariate causality framework the problem with such bivariate causality analysis is that there can be an omitted variable which could adversely affect the results this paper looks at the trivariate causality analysis of african countries by introducing external deby servicing as a third variable in the export economic growth analysis the results indicate that there is a feedback or bidirectional causality between external debt servicing economic growth and exports evidence of the 1983 90 subperiod is consistent with the argument that the structural adjustment programmes which were designed to remove economic distortions promote exports and encourage external debt management increased growth in the countries involved

inter firm complementarities in r d a re examination of the relative performance of joint ventures we compare duopoly outcomes between two alternative modes of research and development rd the reverse holds for high spillovers when rjvs yield higher technological improvement they also yield higher industry profit and social welfare

telecommunications deregulation and subadditive costs are local telephone monopolies unnatural abstract in early 1996 congress passed the telecommunications law providing the foundation for the opening of regulated local telephone monopolies to competition one important premise for introducing competition into local telephone markets is that these markets are not or are no longer natural monopolies this paper reexamines the natural monopoly issue using a cost function that controls for firm heterogeneity our subadditivity tests suggest that local exchange carriers lecs costs are subadditive when there are controls for unobserved heterogeneity suggesting that local telephone markets are natural monopoly markets

agricultural exports and economic growth in less developed countries this article examines the contribution of agricultural exports to economic growth in less developed countries ldcs a sources of growth equation is developed from a dual economy model where agricultural and nonagricultural sectors are both divided into export and nonexport subsectors this is then estimated using panel data for 62 ldcs for 1974 1995 results provide evidence that there are significant structural differences in economic growth between low lower middle and upper income ldcs investment in the agricultural export subsector has a statistically identical impact on economic growth as investment in the nonagricultural export subsector the marginal productivities in nonexport subsectors are over 30 lower than those in respective export subsectors from a policy perspective the results suggest that export promotion policies should be balanced

export expansion and economic growth testing for cointegration and causality this paper develops a multivariate error correction model to test the causality between exports and growth in 15 asian countries 1967 91 the underlying series are tested as non stationary in levels but stationary in first differences the causal factors are cointegrated in five of these countries only causality test results indicate that export expansion causes growth in two third of these countries corrected for simultaneity between the causal factors a country with a large public sector higher level of economic development and which is less vulnerable to external economic shocks is more likely to reap the benefits of export promotion strategies the causal inferences are fairly stable over the sample period

export and production growth evidence from three major wheat exporters of australia canada and the united states this article investigates the robustness of the relationship between export and production growth for three major wheat exporters australia canada and the united states from 1966 to 2000 combining production international trade and development theories a four variable production exports producer price and imports vector autoregressive moving average varma model is developed for each country the causality results show that the hypothesis of export led development is supported by these three major players in the international wheat trade though a bi directional causality is found for canada and the usa variance decomposition and impulse response functions are employed to further investigate the effects of macroeconomic shocks

non transboundary pollution and the efficiency of international environmental co operation abstract the standard view is that situations where no transborder environmental externalities occur are most efficiently dealt with by national environmental policies rather than by international co operation though this may be the general case non coordinated national policies do not always produce the most efficient international allocation this paper presents four cases in which the allocative outcome of non coordinated domestic policy choices can be improved upon by international environmental co operation the first case refers to the use of environmental policy as a strategic trade instrument the other cases refer to the existence of discrete technologies set up costs and increasing returns to scale the form of international environmental co operation should be adapted to the situation formal international agreements between countries are characterised by high transaction costs and may not always be the most efficient form of co operation

country size currency unions and international asset returns differences in real interest rates across developed economies are puzzlingly large and persistent i propose a simple explanation bonds issued in the currencies of larger economies are expensive because they insure against shocks that affect a larger fraction of the world economy i show that indeed differences in the size of economies explain a large fraction of the cross sectional variation in currency returns the data also support additional implications of the model the introduction of a currency union lowers interest rates in participating countries and stocks in the nontraded sector of larger economies pay lower expected returns

the bounds test approach for cointegration and causality between financial development international trade and economic growth the case of cyprus this study employs the bounds test for co integration and granger causality tests to investigate the long run equilibrium relationship and the direction of causality between financial development international trade and real income growth for the cyprus economy the results of the study reveal that financial development as measured by broad money m2 international trade and real income growth are cointegrated thus a long run equilibrium relationship can be inferred among these three variables on the other hand granger causality test results suggest that in cyprus the growth in real income stimulates the growth of international trade both exports and imports and the growth of money supply furthermore growth in imports of goods and services also stimulates a growth in exports of goods and services of cyprus although this result contradicts our initial expectations it indicates the importance of capital inflows in cyprus that plays a major role in financing the investments mainly in the tourism