the cyclical component of labor market polarization and jobless recoveries in the us abstract based on quarterly occupation level data from the us current population survey for 1976 2013 we exploit common cyclical employment dynamics to identify two clusters of occupations that roughly correspond to the widely discussed notion of routine and non routine jobs after decomposing the cyclical dynamics into a cluster specific structural and an occupation specific idiosyncratic component we detect significant structural breaks in the systematic dynamics of both clusters around 1990 we show that absent these breaks employment in the three jobless recoveries since 1990 would have recovered significantly more strongly than observed in the data even after controlling for observed idiosyncratic shocks

energy in a regional economy a computable general equilibrium model for california abstract this study presents a model of energy in the california economy and uses it to simulate long run impacts of oil price changes under varying assumptions about the structure of the economy the distinguishing feature of the model is flexibility use of generalized leontief flexible cost functions at the sectoral level captures the substitution effects of relative price changes while at the same time retaining the structure of traditional input output analysis experimental results suggest this innovation can be important a doubling of the price of imported oil leads to a much larger drop in oil use and a substantially smaller drop in aggregate consumption than is obtained with a fixed coefficient version of the model

does predicted rebound depend on distinguishing between energy and energy services pour analyser le role des services energetiques et des combustibles dans l effet de relance de la consommation d energie liee a des actions d amelioration de l efficacite energetique plusieurs approches sont utilisees et comparees celle de cobb douglas celle de leontief et celle de la croissance equilibree

the macro economic rebound effect and the uk economy abstract this paper examines the macroeconomic rebound effect for the uk economy arising from energy efficiency policies 2000 2010 using the macroeconomic model mdm e3 the literature distinguishes between three types of rebound effect direct indirect and economy wide the macroeconomic rebound effect considered here is the combination of the indirect and economy wide effects policies for the domestic business commercial and public and transport sectors of the economy are analysed for 2000 2010 overall the policies lead to a saving of about 8 of the energy which would otherwise have been used and a reduction in co2 emissions of 10 or 14 mtc by 2010 there are also favourable macroeconomic effects lower inflation and higher growth we find that the macroeconomic rebound effect arising from uk energy efficiency policies for the period 2000 2010 is around 11 by 2010 averaged across sectors of the economy when this is added to the assumed direct rebound effect of around 15 this gives a total rebound effect of around 26 arising from these policies thus the findings of the study support the argument that energy efficiency improvements for both consumers and producers stimulated by policy incentives will lead to significant reductions in energy demand and hence in greenhouse gas emissions

the effects of an increase in energy efficiency on the kenya economy abstract there are reasons to believe that improved energy efficiency still is an important energy development policy despite stable oil prices abundant oil supplies and end of the cold war the political reasons are uncertainty of the current gulf situation and prevalent wars in the former eastern bloc countries increasing concern over global environmental problems the existence of imperfect energy markets and the desire for rapid economic growth in developing countries are the other reasons this paper analyses the effects of energy management policies on the kenyan economy using a computable general equilibrium model simulations show that an increase in energy efficiency leads to reduced dependence on foreign energy sources promotion of reliable domestic energy sources promotion of conservation of all forms of energy saves scarce foreign currency and preserves the environment

impact of energy efficiency gains on output and energy use with cobb douglas production function abstract a special issue of energy policy 28 2000 was devoted to a collection of papers edited by dr lee schipper the collection included a paper entitled a view from the macro side rebound backfire and khazzoom brookes in which it was argued that the impact of fuel efficiency gains on output roughly gdp is likely to be relatively small by cobb douglas production function however an error in the analysis leads to under estimation of the long term impact this paper first provides a partial equilibrium analysis by an alternative method for the same case and then proceeds to an analysis on the issue in a two sector general equilibrium system in the latter analysis energy price is internalized both energy use efficiency and energy production efficiency are involved

pricing of natural resources in a regional economy a computable general equilibrium model for new york state is used to analyze the effects of existing natural resource subsidies as well as the impact of alternative schemes of equal cost the resource under consideration is hydroelectric power generated by state owned facilities simulations indicate that measured in terms of employment the state would be better off selling hydropower to manufacturing at the residential and commercial rate and providing industry with an equal cost labor subsidy instead this would promote energy conservation through more efficient pricing 28 references 5 tables

a general equilibrium assessment of rebound effects in this paper we use a general equilibrium model applied to a national economy norway to explore the potential for energy efficiency improvements to trigger economic forces that offset potential savings from using more efficient technologies rebound effects two types of energy efficiency improvements electricity and oil are introduced into various sectors of the economy our results suggest significant and surprising differences across sectors concerning both energy use and consequences for the build up of greenhouse gases rebound effects are found to be quite significant for manufacturing sectors since long term consumption of energy undergoes minor reductions or increases in response to efficiency improvements in other sectors rebound effects appear to be weak or almost absent

age analysis of the impact of a carbon energy tax on the irish economy a computable general equilibrium model with specific detail in taxation and energy use is developed in this paper to quantify the impact of the implementation of energy taxation to reduce carbon dioxide emissions in ireland benchmark data combining physical energy and emissions data and economic data in the form of a social accounting matrix sam had to be compiled from various data sources because energy and pollution accounts from the seea are not available for ireland we find that the reduction target for energy related co2 emissions in ireland of 25 8 compared to 1998 levels can be achieved with a carbon energy tax of 10 15 euros per tonne of co2 though fuel switching is important in meeting the target this result is more sensitive to the possibilities for producers to substitute away from energy use welfare would fall but only by small percentages production and consumption patterns would change more significantly with a shift in demand from fuels with a high emission factor to energy sources with a lower carbon intensity and from energy to other commodities this paper confirms that a carbon energy tax leads to greater emission reductions than an equivalent uniform energy tax the latter has a stronger negative impact on the less polluting energy sectors whereas the carbon tax greatly stimulates the use of renewable energy and reduces the use of peat and coal the new sam the model and the application to energy taxes contribute to a better informed debate on environmental policy in ireland

a computable general equilibrium model of energy economy and equity interactions in pakistan this article introduces a computable general equilibrium model of the pakistan economy some major extensions to a standard neoclassical model have been made to capture the interlinkages between economy energy and equity the model has been designed mainly to carry out policy oriented short term studies especially for the energy sector an illustrative application of the model shows its capability to provide detailed information which are useful in analysis of a policy issue

negative rebound and disinvestment effects in response to an improvement in energy efficiency in the uk economy this paper uses a computable general equilibrium cge framework to investigate the conditions under which rebound effects may occur in response to increases in energy efficiency in the uk national economy previous work for the uk has suggested that rebound effects will occur even where key elasticities of substitution in production are set close to zero the research reported in this paper involves carrying out a systematic sensitivity analysis where relative price sensitivity is gradually introduced into the system focusing specifically on elasticities of substitution in production and trade parameters in order to determine conditions under which rebound effects become a likely outcome the main result is that while there is positive pressure for rebound effects even where direct and indirect demands for energy are very price inelastic this may be partially or wholly offset by negative income competitiveness and disinvestment effects which also occur in response to falling energy prices the occurrence of disinvestment effects is of particular interest these occur where falling energy prices reduce profitability in domestic energy supply sectors leading to a contraction in capital stock in these sectors which may in turn lead to rebound effects that are smaller in the long run than in the short run a result that runs contrary to the predictions of previous theoretical work in this area

a view from the macro side rebound backfire and khazzoom brookes abstract this paper attempts to delineate a few key insights extracted from theoretical macroeconomic considerations of the rebound issue the goal has been to reduce these thoughts to a clear set of assertions that if true would be useful points of reference in the ongoing discussion despite their non empirical nature

evidence of discrimination in lending an extension we generalize the model of ferguson and peters 1995 to allow for unequal recovery rates in the event of default by majority borrowers versus minority borrowers this simple extension has two direct implications i a uniform credit policy as defined by ferguson and peters entails cross subsidization across groups and ii it is possible for a profit maximizing and therefore economically nondiscriminatory lending policy to generate lower average default rates among minority borrowers than among majority borrowers in a recent issue of this journal ferguson and peters 1995 f p hereafter derive the striking theoretical result that if differences in average credit quality explain differences in denial rates between minority and nonminority applicants then equal default rates between minority and nonminority borrowers imply discrimination against the minority population p 741 their study illustrates the important role of formal analysis in characterizing the types of conclusions that policymakers can and should draw from available empirical evidence the f p study focuses on the case where the information set includes denial and default rates in this note we extend the analysis to include information about the lender s recovery rates in instances of default with this extension two additional findings emerge when average recovery rates among defaulting majority borrowers differ from those of defaulting minority borrowers first a uniform credit policy as defined by f p entails cross subsidization across groups second it is possible for a profit maximizing and therefore economically nondiscriminatory lending policy to generate lower average default rates among minority borrowers than among majority borrowers these results demonstrate that policymakers and regulatory agencies must consider recovery rates in order to understand whether a particular pattern of default rates may imply discriminatory lending behavior this analysis extends in a natural way that of f p who call for future research to

fuel conserving and using production functions abstract this article compares eight production cost functions used or potentially useful for exploring how energy efficiency gains affect energy consumption we show the practitioner s choice of function can inadvertently pre determine results and make recommendations as to which functions are flexible enough to prevent this we also show pre selected factor substitution elasticities can similarly pre determine results to aid the comparison we decompose the energy consumption rebound effect into intensity and output income effects which also delivers insight into the mechanisms of rebound we conclude by recommending practitioners restrict themselves to either the gallant fourier or the generalized leontief symmetric generalized barnett cost functions as being sufficiently rebound flexible the translog cost function may be suitable given certain conditions and a particular form of the ces solow function is a possible but problematic candidate along the way the article provides a general methodology for similarly examining any arbitrarily defined constant returns to scale production or cost function

do increases in energy efficiency improve environmental quality and sustainability governments world wide increasingly see energy efficiency as an important aspect of sustainability however there is a debate in the literature as to whether the impact of improved energy efficiency on reducing energy use might be partially or more than wholly offset through rebound and backfire effects this paper clarifies the theoretical conditions under which such effects would occur and explores their likely significance using a computable general equilibrium cge model of the scottish economy we find that for scotland a general improvement in energy efficiency in the production sectors of the economy initially produces rebound effects that eventually grow into backfire energy use ultimately increases in response to an efficiency gain and the ratio of gdp to co2 emissions falls the economic factors underpinning rebound effects are straightforward energy efficiency improvements result in an effective cut in energy prices which produces output substitution competitiveness and income effects that stimulate energy demands however the presence of strong rebound or even backfire does not mean that efficiency enhancing policies are irrelevant rather it suggests that such policies operating alone are insufficient to generate environmental improvements the implication is that a co ordinated portfolio of energy policies is required

prices technology development and the rebound effect abstract energy efficiency is the critical parameter for policies that aim at reducing energy consumption while maintaining or even boosting economic growth the two main options to influence energy efficiency are changes in relative prices i e raising the price of energy through economic instruments or to introduce new technologies which increase the productivity of each unit of energy this paper is based on the notion that in an equilibrium economy the marginal economic productivity is identical for all factors i e energy labour knowledge and capital from this premise two main conclusions can be drawn first any change in price or technology will have an impact on the whole economy by creating feedbacks through the substitution of factors of production and goods as well as increased wealth second the two policy approaches changing relative prices and technology development are not opposite to each other they are the two faces of the same reality and should be developed and promoted simultaneously and consistently

estimated substitution elasticities of a nested ces production function approach for germany this paper demonstrates an econometric estimation of substitution elasticities of a nested constant elasticity of substitution production function ces between capital energy and labour for the west german industry in the last few years ces production functions have become more important in economic modelling especially for applied general equilibrium models where ces production functions are an important building stone in the literature different results of estimated elasticities can be found this paper investigates three different approaches for nested ces production functions and their estimated substitution elasticities capital energy and labour are estimated as substitutes for the west german industry in the long run

the impact of increased efficiency in the industrial use of energy a computable general equilibrium analysis for the united kingdom the conventional wisdom is that improving energy efficiency will lower energy use however there is an extensive debate in the energy economics policy literature concerning rebound effects these occur because an improvement in energy efficiency produces a fall in the effective price of energy services the response of the economic system to this price fall at least partially offsets the expected beneficial impact of the energy efficiency gain in this paper we use an economy energy environment computable general equilibrium cge model for the uk to measure the impact of a 5 across the board improvement in the efficiency of energy use in all production sectors we identify rebound effects of the order of 30 50 but no backfire no increase in energy use however these results are sensitive to the assumed structure of the labour market key production elasticities the time period under consideration and the mechanism through which increased government revenues are recycled back to the economy

the greenhouse effect the fallacies in the energy efficiency solution abstract the view that widespread improvements in energy efficiency can by themselves do anything to halt the build up of greenhouse gases around the globe is fundamentally unsound it is based on the same fallacies that underlie the claim that energy savings from improving efficiency can substitute for new energy supply the paper by keepin and kats1 claiming that per tonne of coal not burned improvements in energy efficiency are more cost effective than substituting nuclear for coal fired power is therefore an irrelevancy as far as this debate is concerned reductions is energy intensity of output that are not damaging to the economy are associated with increases not decreases in energy demand at the macroeconomic level even within the boundaries of their own flawed approach their attempt2 to refute the critique of their thesis made by jones3 was little more than misdirected grape shot with no discernable connected thread of argument

an econometric model of merseyside validation and policy simulations minford p stoney p riley j and webb b 1994 an econometric model of merseyside validation and policy simulations reg studies 28 563 576 the paper estimates an econometric model of merseyside on annual data the model is derived from a heckscher ohlin framework for the traded sector set beside a non traded sector and facing a positively sloped supply curve of manual labour whose reservation wage is set by unemployment benefits with all other factor prices being set exogenously to the region through elastic supply the supply of manual labour responding to traded sector wages set by world market conditions determines the size of the region s output the model s fit over the past is acceptable though data is limited its simulation properties contrasting with those of previous demand driven models imply high returns to policies that reduce local costs such as taxes union mark ups and transport charges minford p stoney p riley j et webb b 1994 un modele econometrique de merseyside

carbon taxes with exemptions in an open economy a general equilibrium analysis of the german tax initiative abstract sectoral exemptions from environmental regulation are applied in many countries to avoid adverse adjustment effects in specific industries the problem with exemptions is that they can make environmental policy more costly our paper analyzes the welfare costs of exemptions in environmental policy together with the issue of unilateral carbon taxes in an open economy several countries within the eu have introduced or contemplated unilateral taxes to reduce anthropogenic co2emissions taxes which are unilaterally imposed in an open economy can have significant impacts on production and employment of energy and export intensive industries to save jobs by maintaining international competitiveness most co2taxation schemes include exemptions for energy and export intensive industries as a compromise between environmental objectives and employment in these sectors this paper shows that such compromises are costly as the tax base narrows the dead weight loss increases our calculations illustrate this point in the framework of a static general equilibrium model for west germany calibrated to 1990 data we evaluate the excess costs of exemptions as a means of saving jobs in specific industries relative to an alternative instrument a uniform carbon tax cum wage subsidy which achieves an identical level of national emissions and employment at a fraction of the cost