explaining agricultural productivity growth an international perspective this article presents multi output multi input total factor productivity tfp growth rates in agriculture for 88 countries over the 1970 2001 period estimated with both stochastic frontier analysis sfa and the more commonly employed data envelopment analysis dea we find results with sfa to be more plausible than with dea and use them to analyze trends across countries and the determinants of tfp growth in developing countries the central finding is that policy and institutional variables including public agricultural expenditure and proagricultural price policy reforms are significant correlates of tfp growth the most significant geographic correlate of tfp growth is distance to the nearest oecd country

governance and agricultural productivity a cross national analysis abstract in this study we examine the relationship between governance and agricultural performance by employing the world bank s aggregate governance indicators based on a cross country panel sample two methods are employed to test the hypothesis that better governance fosters agricultural productivity the empirical results of both methods support the hypothesis as for the first method the estimation results of the widely used inter country aggregate agricultural production function show that a country with better governance can produce more agricultural outputs given the same amounts of agricultural inputs the same education level and the same climate condition as for the second method the empirical results of a structural equation model reveal that given the same amounts of agricultural capital stock and land an agricultural worker in a country with better governance produces more better governance can indirectly improve agricultural productivity by driving agricultural capital accumulation our empirical work lends support to the claim of hayami and ruttan hayami y ruttan v 1985 agricultural development an international perspective john hopkins university press baltimore that governance is a basic factor explaining the poor economic performance of many developing countries in order to improve the agricultural performance of many developing countries apart from physical and education investments more emphasis should be placed on improving the governance infrastructure of these countries

the role of empowerment in agricultural production evidence from rural households in niger we use new household and individual level weai data from the tahoua region of niger and estimate a variable coefficient cobb douglas production function in which traditional inputs interact with tw

revisiting the role of education for agricultural productivity while the majority of micro studies finds that rural education increases agricultural productivity various recent cross country regressions analysing the determinants of agricultural productivity were only able to detect insignificant or even surprising negative effects of schooling in this paper we argue and show that this failure to find a positive impact of education in the international context is rather a data problem related to the use of enrolment and literacy indicators using a panel of 95 developing and middle income countries from 1961 to 2002 together with the newest version of the barro lee educational attainment dataset we show that education indeed has a highly significant positive effect on agricultural productivity which is robust to changes in the control variables and in the econometric methods applied distinguishing between different levels of education further reveals that only primary and secondary schooling have significant positive impacts while tertiary education remains insignificant finally the effect of education is estimated separately for countries with different income levels results indicate that the coefficient of the education variable remains insignificant for countries from the poorest three income quintiles while it is positive and highly significant for the richest two quintiles this finding can be interpreted as support for the prominent argument claiming that education leads to higher agricultural productivity only in the presence of rapid technical change where education will help farmers to adjust more readily to the new opportunities

examining crop price effects on production decision and resource allocation an ex ante approach this article examines the output price effects on the us crop production employing an ex ante approach to the differential systems of input demand and output supply the estimation results of the

implications of agricultural trade liberalization for the developing countries abstract the developing countries as a group could expect to experience only small welfare gains if they chose not to actively participate in agricultural trade liberalization and relied solely on the benefits of partial liberalization in the oecd countries participation along the lines of the dunkel package with the developing countries reducing positive assistance by less than the developed countries would yield gains of the order of us 20 billion more comprehensive participation in trade liberalization involving reductions of both positive and negative protection would almost triple these welfare gains while some developing countries do not gain from trade liberalization even with full participation the number of such countries and the magnitude of their losses are greatly reduced

agricultural distortions structural change and economic growth a cross country analysis taxing agriculture to mobilize resources for industrialization has been a widely used development strategy using novel cross country time series data sets with direct measures of agricultural taxation we examine how a policy bias against agriculture affects the speed of convergence in income per capita structural change and economic growth we find that distortionary agricultural policies in poor economies can account for the emergence of convergence clubs in our sample by significantly retarding their structural transformation and economic growth overall we find no evidence suggesting that policies that discriminate against agriculture have been beneficial for long term economic growth

prices and productivity in agriculture developing countries often tax agriculture heavily a practice that might affect the productivity as well as the quantity of resources allocated to agriculture a variable coefficient cross country agricultural production function is estimated with past price expectations among the determinants of the production coefficients productivity s responsiveness to those expectations implies that had these developing economies eliminated price interventions agricultural productivity would have increased on average by about a fourth copyright 1993 by mit press

the power of the purse and its implications for bureaucratic policy making a dilemma of the power of the purse is thatcutting an agency s budget may make a desired policyinfeasible i examine the implications of thisdilemma with a repeated game in which a bureau choosesunobservable policies after a legislature sets itsbudget the bureau is work averse and has its ownpolicy preferences and therefore may cheat but thelegislature may perform an audit to recover slack funds a main result is that if the legislaturedesires a higher policy level than the agency then itfaces a trade off between good but wasteful policiesand bad but efficient ones

adaptive signal processing hierarchy and budgetary control in federal regulation control over agency budgets is a critical tool of political influence in regulatory decision making yet the causal mechanism of budgetary control is unclear do budgetary manipulations influence agencies by imposing resource constraints or by transmitting powerful signals to the agency i advance and test a stochastic process model of adaptive signal processing by a hierarchical agency to address this question the principal findings of the paper are two first presidents and congressional committees achieve budgetary control over agencies not by manipulating aggregate resource constraints but by transmitting powerful signals through budget shifts second bureaucratic hierarchy increases the agency s response time in processing budgetary signals limiting the efficacy of the budget as a device of political control i also show that the magnitude of agency response to budgetary signals increased for executive branch agencies after 1970 due to executive oversight reforms i conclude by discussing the limits of budgetary manipulations as a device of political control and the response of elected authorities to adaptive signal processing by agencies

ldc agriculture nonparametric malmquist productivity indexes abstract this paper examines changes in agricultural productivity in 18 developing countries over the period 1961 1985 we use the nonparametric output based malmquist index to examine whether the results from such an approach confirm results from other methods that have indicated declining agricultural productivity in less developed countries ldcs the results confirm previous findings indicating that at least half of these countries have experienced productivity declines in agriculture we also found that those countries that tax agriculture most heavily had the most negative rates of productivity change

an intertemporal general equilibrium model of asset prices this paper develops a continuous time general equilibrium model of a simple but complete economy and uses it to examine the behavior of asset prices in this model asset prices and their stochastic properties are determined endogenously one principal result is a partial differential equation which asset prices must satisfy the solution of this equation gives the equilibrium price of any asset in terms of the underlying real variables in the economy in this paper we develop a general equilibrium asset pricing model for use in applied research an important feature of the model is its integration of real and financial markets among other things the model endogenously determines the stochastic process followed by the equilibrium price of any financial asset and shows how this process depends on the underlying real variables the model is fully consistent with rational expectations and maximizing behavior on the part of all agents our framework is general enough to include many of the fundamental forces affecting asset markets yet it is tractable enough to be specialized easily to produce specific testable results furthermore the model can be extended in a number of straightforward ways consequently it is well suited to a wide variety of applications for example in a companion paper cox ingersoll and ross 7 we use the model to develop a theory of the term structure of interest rates many studies have been concerned with various aspects of asset pricing under uncertainty the most relevant to our work are the important papers on intertemporal asset pricing by merton 19 and lucas 16 working in a continuous time framework merton derives a relationship among the equilibrium expected rates of return on assets he shows that when investment opportunities are changing randomly over time this relationship will include effects which have no analogue in a static one period model lucas considers an economy with homogeneous individuals and a single consumption good which is produced by a number of processes the random output of these processes is exogenously determined and perishable assets are defined as claims to all or a part of the output of a process and the equilibrium determines the asset prices our theory draws on some elements of both of these papers like merton we formulate our model in continuous time and make full use of the analytical tractability that this affords the economic structure of our model is somewhat similar to that of lucas however we include both endogenous production and

political preferences for the pork barrel a generalization this paper provides a rational explanation for the observation of oversized coalitions often approaching unanimous size in the realm of distributive policies distributive policies are those which concentrate benefits in specific geographic areas states congressional districts while spreading costs through general taxation the explanation offered here that legislators may rationally prefer universalism to hard ball coalition politics generalizes earlier work of weingast and fiorina in particular it extends their results to pork barrel politics i e projects that are economically inefficient and demonstrates how packages of economically inefficient projects can nevertheless be politically popular the main theoretical feature that induces preferences for universalism is uncertainty over the composition of winning coalitions and consequently the desire for the political insurance that universalism provides

productivity growth and the effects of r d in african agriculture this article measures and compares total factor productivity growth in african agriculture under contemporaneous and sequential technology frontiers over the period 1970 2004 the sources of productivity growth are examined using a fixed effects regression model and a polynomial distributed lag structure for agricultural r d expenditures while conventional estimates show an average productivity growth rate of only 0 3 per year the improved measures under sequential technology show that african agricultural productivity grew at a higher rate of 1 8 per year technical progress rather than efficiency change was the principal source of productivity growth agricultural r d weather and trade reforms turned out to have significant effects on productivity in african agriculture with a rate of return of 33 per year r d is shown to be a socially profitable investment in african agriculture while a strong r d expenditure growth of about 2 per year in the 1970s led to strong productivity growth after the mid 1980s stagnation of r d expenditure in the 1980s and early 1990s led to slower productivity growth in the 2000s consistent with recent economic recovery in africa evidenced by stronger agricultural gdp growth rates results showed that policy reforms as well as improved weather contributed to the recovery of agricultural productivity after the mid 1980s

an equilibrium model of exchange rate determination and asset pricing with nontraded goods and imperfect information this paper presents a two country model with maximizing households stochastic production stochastic money growth and perfect capital mobility because of the presence of nontraded goods households in different countries consume different goods analytic solutions are presented for the nominal exchange rate the real exchange rate nominal interest rates and real interest rates it is shown that the model is compatible with some important features of the real world behavior of exchange rates when households are imperfectly informed about the distribution of money growth the exchange rate exhibits patterns of overshooting and is more volatile than the ratio of the money stocks copyright 1987 by university of chicago press

effective costs and chemical use in united states agricultural production using the environment as a free input a cost function based production model is used to represent patterns of input use and output production in u s agriculture and the implied costs of induced reductions in risk from agricultural chemicals bad outputs we estimate and evaluate shadow values for these harmful outputs and the implied input and output specific substitution patterns with a focus on the impacts on pesticide demand and its quality and quantity components using state level data we find these measures to be statistically significant vary substantively by region and imply increased demand for effective pesticides associated with improvements in quality from embodied technology copyright 2002 oxford university press

bureaucrats legislators and the size of government some recent theories have blamed the growth of government on budget maximizing bureaucrats who are assumedly capable of imposing their most preferred budget output combination on legislatures subject to cost and demand constraints however theoretical examination of the range of bargaining outcomes that might occur between bureau and legislature shows that budget maximizing behavior does not necessarily lead to super optimal levels of production nor do the suggested reforms of competition and privatization necessarily improve the situation in this bargaining model the central determinants of governmental growth are not budget maximizing bureaucrats but the legislature s decisions regarding mode of oversight and form of internal organization

is agricultural productivity in developing countries really shrinking new evidence using a modified nonparametric approach abstract nonparametric productivity analyses performed to date show that most developing countries are experiencing relatively rapid technical regress in agriculture we discuss the plausibility of these results and argue that they stem from the existence of biased technical change and the definition of technology used we reestimate the malmquist index for a group of developing countries using a different definition of technology and find that most developing countries in our sample are experiencing positive productivity growth with technical change being the main source of this growth

an adaptive model of bureaucratic politics in this article we outline a new framework for the formal analysis of bureaucratic politics it departs from standard neoclassical approaches notably those of niskanen 1971 and peltzman 1976 in several important respects first our approach explicitly models a system of three way interaction among bureaus politicians and interest groups second it allows for institutional features of each type of participant third it is a model of dynamic process fourth participants make choices adoptively rather than optimizing fifth participants are only minimally informed the result is a dynamic model of adaptive behavior very much in the spirit of simon s 1947 behavioral tradition that offers a new perspective on political control bureaucratic power and the intelligence of democracy

the institutional dynamics of policy administration bureaucratic influence over securities regulation theory a dynamic systems model of administrative politics that 1 relaxes restrictive causal assumptions among the president congress and an administrative agency 2 emphasizes aggregate institutional behavior and 3 analyzes both anticipated and unanticipated policy behavior is set forth as a more general means to investigate agency political relationships hypotheses the main set of hypotheses focus on the aggregate institutional relationships among the president congress and administrative agency these four possible hypotheses include bureaucratic influence bureaucratic autonomy mutual influence and political influence the purpose here is to assess the relative merits of competing explanations for bureaucratic behavior securities regulation is a perfect area of inquiry to investigate these competing perspectives since the findings of existing research on this topic are disparate methods vector autoregressive time series statistical methods are used to empirically test the dynamic systems model of administrative politics by examining three empirical models of sec enforcement behavior in relation to presidential and congressional budgetary preference signals for the 1949 92 annual period results the sec sends potent signals of their own via their changes in regulatory outputs that will affect the budgetary preferences of its political principles however the sec s administrative outputs are shown to be somewhat less sensitive to political budgetary preference signals than what one would expect presidential and congressional budgetary preference signals with respect to the sec are interdependent to a sizeable extent thus raising doubts about the separate independent effect democratic institutions have over the bureaucracy the implications of this study suggest that conventional theories of agency political relations serve as an oversimplified way to study administrative behavior future research on this topic

changing beliefs and systematic rational forecast errors with evidence from foreign exchange this paper addresses a new interpretation to the appearance in the early 1980s of systematic errors in forecasting the dollar exchange rate following a change in the process of a fundamental variable market participants revise their beliefs about the process using bayes rule since the market does not immediately recognize the change forecast errors are on average wrong during a period when the market is rationally learning for conservative parameter values the learning behavior of the dollar exchange rate in the early 1980s appears consistent with about half of the dollar s underprediction implied by the forward market copyright 1989 by american economic association

accounting for forward rates in markets for foreign currency absteract forward and spot exchange rates between major currencies imply large standard deviations of both predictable returns from currency speculation and of the equilibrium price measure the intertemporal marginal rate of substitution representative agent theory with time additive preferences cannot account for either of these properties we show that the theory does considerably better along these dimensions when the representative agent s preferences exhibit habit persistence but that the theory fails to reproduce some of the other properties of the data in particular the strong autocorrelation of forward premiums since the advent of flexible exchange rates in the early 1970s a large body of statistical work has established that forward rates for major currencies are not optimal predictors of future spot rates relevant evidence is reported in studies by baillie lippens and mcmahon 1983 bekaert 1991 bilson 1981 boothe and longworth 1984 cumby 1988 cumby and obstfeld 1984 fama 1984 gregory and mccurdy 1984 hansen and hodrick 1983 hodrick and srivastava 1984 and korajczyk and viallet 1990 a more complete list of references is provided by hodrick 1987 these papers indicate that returns from speculation in forward and spot currency markets are predictable and that the predictable components vary considerably over time a number of alternative explanations have been offered for the predictable variation in foreign currency market excess returns kaminsky 1988 korajczyk 1985 and krasker 1980 suggest that infrequent extreme events may make returns appear predictable in small samples the so called peso problem lewis 1989 argues that rational learning following infrequent changes in the process governing equilibrium prices can explain part of the ex post predictability of currency returns froot and frankel 1989 and froot and thaler 1990 examine the hypothesis that market forecasts of future spot

international productivity patterns accounting for input quality infrastructure and research in this paper we present measures of land and labor productivity for a group of ninety eight developed and developing countries using an entirely new data set with annual observations spanning the past three decades the substantial cross country and intertemporal variation in productivity in our sample is linked to both natural and economic factors we extend previous work by dealing with multiple sources of systematic measurement error in conventional agricultural inputs the mix of conventional inputs indicators of quality of agricultural inputs and the amount of publicly provided infrastructure are all significant in explaining observed cross sectional differences in productivity patterns

determinants of the amount and type of corruption in state fiscal bureaucracies an analysis of late imperial china a principal agent model of relations between rulers and state officials is used to derive several propositions concerning the amount and type of corruption in state bureaucracies the model is appl

total factor productivity growth in agriculture a malmquist index analysis of 93 countries 1980 2000 in this paper we examine levels and trends in agricultural output and productivity in 93 developed and developing countries that account for a major portion of the world population and agricultural output we make use of data drawn from the food and agriculture organization of the united nations and our study covers the period 1980 2000 due to the non availability of reliable input price data the study uses data envelopment analysis dea to derive malmquist productivity indexes the study examines trends in agricultural productivity over the period issues of catch up and convergence or in some cases possible divergence in productivity in agriculture are examined within a global framework the paper also derives the shadow prices and value shares that are implicit in the dea based malmquist productivity indices and examines the plausibility of their levels and trends over the study period

asset pricing puzzles and incomplete markets the representative agent theory of asset pricing is modified to incorporate heterogeneous agents and incomplete markets the model features two types of agents who differ up to a nontradable idiosyncratic component in their endowment processes numerical solutions indicate that individuals are able to diversify a substantial portion of their idiosyncratic income risk through riskless borrowing and lending alone restrictions on the variability of intertemporal marginal rates of substitution hansen and jagannathan 1991 are used to argue that incomplete markets as modeled here cannot account for the properties of asset returns that are anomalous from the perspective of representative agent theory a large literature in financial economics has investigated the extent to which variants of the lucas 1978 general equilibrium theory of asset pricing can account for the joint behavior of aggregate u s consumption and asset returns by and large this literature has concluded that a theory based upon frictionless arrow debreu markets and or a representative agent makes strongly counterfactual predictions regarding even the simple unconditional properties of this relationship mehra and prescott 1985 for instance show that the theory drastically underpredicts the average excess rate of return on u s stocks the so called equity premium puzzle weil 1989 points out as did mehra and prescott that the magnitude of the average risk free rate is far below that predicted by the theory this has been dubbed the risk free rate puzzle numerous authors including grossman melino and shiller 1987 and backus gregory and zin 1989 show that the theory cannot account for term premia inherent in the yield curve hodrick 1987 surveys a large literature which documents the theory s shortcomings in accounting for excess expected returns in foreign exchange markets the notion that the representative agent model cannot account for excess returns across a wide array of asset markets can be made more precise by using tools developed by hansen and jagannathan 1991 and shiller 1982

the power of parallel thinking a small computer model demonstrates that an appropriate organization of boundedly rational individuals can find optimal policies in an environment that is overwhelmingly complex for unorganized decision makers the model is also used to identify conditions under which optimal or even good policies are not found the demonstrated adaptive power of the model is interpreted in light of recent developments in the theory of computational complexity that place new stress on powerful methods of search and of new models from computer science which markedly advance search effectiveness by harnessing parallel structures of information processing

tracing the effects of agricultural commodity prices and food costs we estimate a system of product and input demand equations for food processing industries to trace the links among farm commodity prices food processing costs and food prices disembodied technical change which likely reflects increasing consumer demand for convenience and product variety has sharply reduced agricultural materials demand relative to most other food processing inputs this implies weakening impacts of farm price shocks on food prices but improving quality and falling relative prices for agricultural inputs in combination with increasing factor substitution has counteracted these forces to encourage greater usage of agricultural inputs in food processing and limit these trends food prices today often appear less responsive to farm price shocks than in the past a development sometimes attributed to failures in market institutions however powerful long run technological and social changes leading to adaptations in production processes and food consumption patterns have also altered the demand for primary agricultural materials by changing the structure of food processing industries the social shifts surrounding the expanded role of women in the labor force represent one striking example of such changes the fraction of married women in the labor force less than one third in 1960 rose sharply through the next three decades before stabilizing at around 61 in the 1990s such demographic shifts increased the demand for food products requiring less home preparation time which in combination with enhanced technology has led to more in plant processing of agricultural materials and likely a growing share of nonagricultural inputs in

the intercountry agricultural production function and productivity differences among countries abstract the sources of differences in labor productivity in agriculture between developed countries dc s and less developed countries ldc s are identified by estimating an aggregate agricultural production function based on cross county data for 1960 1970 and 1980 the production function was found to be stable over the entire period agriculture in the dc s was characterized by increasing returns and in the ldc s by constant returns to scale the results imply that unfavorable man land ratios do not represent an immediate barrier to rapid agricultural development in the low income ldc s but they may create a serious agricultural adjustment problem as those countries advance into the middle income range

is there a slowdown in agricultural productivity growth in south america this article estimates agricultural productivity growth in 10 south american countries in 1969 2009 with the objective of investigating if the slowdown being measured in other countries is present in the region results show that productivity growth accounts for half of the three fold increase in agricultural output during this period and that performance is sensitive to r d investments in the sector the slowdown found for the 1990s to 2000s in the u s and some european economies does not seem to be present yet in south america the region s total factor productivity tfp growth rate increased steadily from 1 07 during the 1970s to 2 29 during the 2000s given lags in adoption and the adaptive nature of innovations in these economies we have yet to see the potential effects in south american agriculture of decreases in r d in advanced economies

land distribution and international agricultural productivity the unequal distribution of agricultural land is often cited as a source of inefficiency in agriculture previous cross country studies of agricultural productivity differences though have not considered land inequality this article addresses this issue by using cross country data on inequality in operational holdings of agricultural land from deininger and squire 1998 in an estimation of an agricultural production function the gini coefficient for land holdings is found to have a significant negative relationship with productivity this is consistent with the existence of heterogeneity in productivity by farm size within countries a one standard deviation drop in the gini coefficient implies an increase in productivity of 8 5

ict and agricultural productivity evidence from cross country data this article carries out agricultural production function estimations based on data for the period 1995 2000 on 81 countries to present empirical evidence on the relationship between the adoption of information and communication technology ict and agricultural productivity it is found that new ict has a significantly positive impact on agricultural productivity the evidence suggests that the adoption of modern industrial inputs in agricultural production relies on the information and communication infrastructure however the empirical evidence from this study also suggests that new ict could be a factor for the divergence between countries in terms of overall agricultural productivity not only do we find that the ict adoption levels of the richer countries are much higher than those of the poorer countries but also that returns from ict in agricultural production of the richer countries are about two times higher than those of the poorer countries a plausible explanation for the poorer countries relatively low productivity elasticity of ict is the lack of important complementary factors such as a substantial base of human capital

agricultural productivity in developing countries abstract this paper examines changes in agricultural productivity in 18 developing countries over the period 1961 1985 we use a nonparametric output based malmquist index and a parametric variable coefficients cobb douglas production function to examine whether our estimates confirm results from other studies that have indicated declining agricultural productivity in ldcs the results confirm previous findings indicating that at least half of these countries have experienced productivity declines in agriculture

a theory of jurisdictional assignments in bureaucracies 1 what determines the allocation of tasks among government agencies this paper develops a formal model of task allocation that argues that jurisdictions are strategically designed to achieve legislative goals in the model agencies choose unobservable policies and political outcomes are a noisy indicator of these choices the legislature therefore faces a compliance issue when the agencies policy preferences are different from its own the legislature exerts control by defining agency jurisdictions setting ex ante budgets and choosing ex post contractual inducements the principal result is that tasks will be consolidated under a single roof when that agency prefers lower levels of policy than the legislature in other cases separating tasks prevents resources from being allocated in a manner undesirable for the legislature

foreign exchange market efficiency tests implications of recent empirical findings abstract the recent empirical literature on the efficiency of the foreign exchange market has been characterized by strikingly contradictory conclusions drawn from similar empirical evidence these contradictions result because 1 different maintained hypotheses are held and 2 different criteria e g micro versus macroeconomic are used to judge the evidence in this survey we organize the empirical literature under several headings the presence of risk premiums empirical regularities in regression tests profitable trading rules and advanced econometric techniques in integrating this material we consider the implications of the current evidence for investors forecasters policy makers and theorists

endogenous public sector budgeting to centralize or not in this paper the impact of budget size on a government s choice to centralize or decentralize the budgetary process is investigated using asymmetric information differing preferences and endogenous budgetary arrangements the central government chooses between a budgetary process that excludes the regional board centralization and one that includes the board decentralization in the determination of program budget levels it is predicted that the central government will decentralize the budgetary process at low and centralize at high overall budget levels switching from decentralization to centralization is predicted to

testing household specific explanations for the inverse productivity relationship the inverse relationship between land productivity and farm size is an old and puzzling empirical regularity most explanations for this relationship rely on market imperfections that jointly determine the farm size and the household s shadow price of some productive inputs we use plot level data from the icrisat vls to assess whether these household specific theories can explain the puzzle the data exhibit plots of different sizes being simultaneously cropped by the same household the inverse relationship is shown to hold true with the same magnitude across the plots of each household thus cross household heterogeneity does not suffice to explain the puzzle