the dynamic relationship between the federal funds rate and the treasury bill rate an empirical investigation this article examines the dynamic relationship between two key us money market interest rates the federal funds rate and the 3 month treasury bill rate using daily data over the period from 1974 99 we find a long run relationship between these two rates that is remarkably stable across monetary policy regimes of interest rate and monetary aggregate targeting employing a non linear asymmetric vector equilibrium correction model which is novel in this context we find that most of the adjustment toward the long run equilibrium occurs through the federal funds rate in turn there is strong evidence for the existence of significant asymmetries and non linearities in interest rate dynamics that have implications for the conventional view of interest rate behaviour

non monotonic effects of market concentration on prices for residential solar photovoltaics in the united states abstract emerging renewable energy markets may become more concentrated over time as the most efficient firms accumulate market share the effects of this market concentration on prices are tested using a rich dataset of residential solar photovoltaic pv systems in the united states a novel hypothesis is explored that the effects of market concentration may be non monotonic prices may decline in market concentration due to efficiency gains associated with returns to scale but increase in concentration in already concentrated markets due to increasing market power the results of an econometric model provide evidence to support the non monotonic hypothesis however the data suggest that the relationship between prices and firm scale is nuanced and that both large and small scale pv installers may wield efficiency advantages

interest rate deregulation monetary policy efficacy and rate rigidity abstract this paper examines the effects of interest rate regulation and subsequent deregulation on the efficacy of monetary policy and rigidity of retail bank deposit rates in hong kong using an error correction model we find that interest rate deregulation increases the efficacy of monetary policy by improving the correlation between retail bank deposit rates and market interest rates and increasing the degree of long term pass through for retail bank deposit rates our study also shows that the adjustments in retail bank deposit rates are asymmetric and rigid upwards during the regulated period but tend to be rigid downwards during the deregulated period the spreads between retail bank deposit rates and market rates have also tightened sharply after the removal of interest rate controls

money supply announcements and interest rates another view in this paper i use a new approach to analyze the impact of money supply announcements on the bond market before 1980 the only available work on this subject consisted of a few unpublished papers by conrad 1978 sivesind 1978 and urich 1979 1 more recently published papers by grossman 1981 and urich and wachtel 1981 have appeared roley 1982 extends the grossman study to incorporate data after the federal reserve policy statement of october 6 1979 both grossman and urich and wachtel are primarily concerned with the question of money market efficiency using survey data made available by money market services of san francisco and data on treasury bill yields each finds that the market responds quickly to unanticipated changes in the money supply but that anticipated changes have no effect on interest rates in addition grossman finds that when he adds other variables such as past changes in the money

collusion analysis of the alabama liquid asphalt market the alabama liquid asphalt market in the usa is examined over the period 1961 1978 for evidence of activity consistent with collusion some 14 conditional collusion facilitating factors that could influence a market s tendency towards collusion not all equally important or necessarily in agreement with every other factor were considered while some of these factors are controversial and can help or harm a collusion the net balance of factors and all of the important factors and evidence pointed towards being consistent with a conspiracy while not examined as extensively it was also found that the circumstantial evidence in the market was also consistent with collusion this article suggests a procedural methodology for initiation and resolution of suspected collusion for determining appropriate damages while the precise law and damages allowed will be country specific the general methodology should have wide application in many countries whose laws attempt to foster and preserve competition and pun

asymmetric information and price competition in small business lending abstract this paper examines the relationship between bank lending rates and their cost of funds in new zealand our results show that on average mortgage rates respond more quickly to changes in the cost of funds than base business lending rates we also find an asymmetry in the initial short run response of banks to changes in funding costs in particular our results show banks adjust mortgage rates downwards faster than upwards the speed to which lending rates revert back to their equilibrium relationship with funding costs varies across the lending markets we find the adjustment speed is faster when mortgage rates are below equilibrium whereas it is slower when business lending rates are above long run levels in relation to funding costs our analysis suggests that banks prefer the plain vanilla type of lending such as mortgages in comparison to small business lending consistent with asymmetric information associated with business loans

the effect of unanticipated money on the money and foreign exchange markets abstract a number of studies have attempted to determine why unanticipated increases in the money supply are positively correlated with money market interest rates by examining the response of the foreign exchange market to unanticipated changes in the money stock they have found a significant positive relationship between unanticipated increases in the money supply and the foreign exchange value of the dollar and have interpreted this as evidence for the anticipated liquidity effect hypothesis however these results support this hypothesis only if both markets respond simultaneously to unanticipated changes in money this paper examines the cross market consistency of the response using six bilateral exchange rates and the treasury bill rate all measured over a narrow time interval the results show that in general these markets do not respond simultaneously to money announcements

asymmetric impact of monetary surprises on exchange rate abstractthis paper examines the asymmetric response of exchange rate to monetary surprises after controlling the type direction and origin of the news as well as business cycle phase a new asymmetry is found in the response of the exchange rate to news surprises in specific the us dollar depreciates against major currencies as the response to the negative monetary surprises in the 2001 recession while the dollar appreciates responding to similar negative monetary surprises during the 2008 recession the paper further explores possible causes and finds that time varying status of the currency with higher financial returns may contribute to the new asymmetry

industrial concentration and price cost margin of the indonesian food and beverages sector this article investigates trends in industrial concentration and its relationship with the price cost margin in 54 subsectors of the indonesian food and beverages sector in the period 1995 to 2006 this study uses firm level survey data provided by the indonesian bureau of central statistics bps classified at the five digit international standard industrial classification isic level the results show a significant increase in industrial concentration in 1995 to 1999 which coincided with the period of the economic crisis in indonesia after 1999 the industrial concentration exhibits a slightly decreasing long term trend furthermore the industrial concentration for all subsectors tends to converge to the same value in the long run additionally results show that higher industrial concentration yields a higher price cost margin finally the introduction of the competition law in 1999 has slightly lowered industrial concentration and the price cost margin

market evidence on the effective maturity of bank assets and liabilities the recent years increase in interest rate volatility has intensified concern over the exposure of commercial banks to interest rate or funding risk since the effect of interest rate changes on the equity value of a bank depends on the maturity or duration of the bank s assets and liabilities assessing an individual bank s interest rate risk exposure requires information about the maturity composition of its portfolio it is difficult however to assess a bank s risk exposure from balance sheet data because several important asset and liability items have theoretically ambiguous effective maturities in a frictionless market a security s effective maturity will equal its stated maturity or time to repricing with market imperfections e g depositors transaction or information costs however the equilibrium cost of some deposit items may respond sluggishly or incompletely to market rate changes see hester and pierce 1975 or flannery 1982 such liabilities market values discounted at market rates would therefore fluctuate with the level of interest rates these liabilities are sometimes called core deposits which manifest sticky responses to market rate changes we define an asset or liability s effective maturity as the maturity of a fixed rate perfectly elastically supplied security with the same market value elasticity as the bank balance sheet item under consideration naturally a balance sheet item s effective maturity is the relevant determinant of its contribution to the bank s overall interest rate risk sensitivity

monetary transmission and bank competition in the emu the introduction of the euro has led to renewed attention for monetary transmission in the european union this special issue of the journal of banking and finance includes papers that contribute to the development of both the theory and empirical applications of the monetary transmission channel that assumes various types of imperfections the issue includes papers that can best be described by the credit view and studies on concentration and competition in the european banking industry this introduction positions the papers in this active field of research c 2002 elsevier science b v all rights reserved

unanticipated interest rates bank stock returns and the nominal contracting hypothesis abstract the relationship between unexpected interest rate movements and bank stock returns is analyzed in the context of the nominal contracting hypothesis unanticipated changes in interest rates should influence individual bank profits and stock returns depending on the maturity characteristics of their assets relative to their liabilities this hypothesis is investigated by constructing portfolios on the basis of the nominal contracting positions of banks the main conclusion of this paper is that the wealth redistribution implications of the nominal contracting hypothesis is found to be unimportant in the determination of bank stock returns

market dynamics and dichotomy evidence from taiwanese manufacturing in taiwan a dichotomous market structure is closely related to the progress of economic development the purpose of the present article is to examine the market dynamics and dichotomous nature of taiwanese manufacturing a model of dynamic adjustment of industry structure is considered when both the speed of adjustment and the long run market concentration are allowed to vary across industries we use 118 four digit manufacturing industries for empirical analysis of our models spanning between 1981 and 1991 empirical findings show that both the speed of adjustment and long run industry concentration are predominantly determined by minimum efficient scale the speed of adjustment is much faster in a small open economy like taiwan compared to mature economies like the us and australia in addition the dichotomous nature of the market is supported in our findings for both periods viz 1981 1986 and 1986 1991 albeit weaker for the later period

interest rate and exchange rate exposures of banking institutions in pre crisis korea this study empirically investigates interest rate and exchange rate exposures of banking institutions in pre crisis korea using the sensitivity of stock returns as a measure of the exposure it is shown that korean commercial banks and merchant banking corporations had been significantly exposed to both interest rate and exchange rate risks and that the subsequent profitability of commercial banks was significantly associated with the degree of pre crisis exposure the evidence suggests that along with the negative exposure of banking institutions the sharp depreciation of the korean won and high interest rates at the end of 1997 further deteriorated the banking sector s capital adequacy worsening the financial crisis the korean case highlights the importance of upgrading financial supervision and risk management practices as a precondition for successful financial liberalization

monetary policy and long term interest rates an efficient markets approach abstract this paper is an application of efficient markets theory to analyze empirically the relationship of money supply growth and long term interest rates this approach has the advantage over calier research on this subject in that it imposes a theoretical structure on this relationship that flows easier interpretation of the empirical results as well as more powerful statistical tests on the interest of ascertaining the robustness of the results many different empirical tests are carried out in this paper and they uniformly do not support the preposition that increases in the money supply are correlated with declines in long rates

domestic and international financial market responses to federal deficit announcements abstract this study examines the response of domestic and international financial variables to announced changes in federal deficit projections over the 1981 1994 period as observed in earlier studies rates on us treasury securities responded positively to announced increases in federal deficit projections new evidence shows that deficit effects are transmitted internationally with foreign long term interest rates also increasing in response to announced increases in us deficit projections the exchange value of the dollar tends to be positively related to announced changes in deficit projections but that result appears to be related to the degree of insulation of foreign financial markets from us financial markets finally the price of gold responded positively to announced changes in deficit projections taken together the results suggest that higher projected deficits raise real interest rates in part because of an increase in an inflation risk premium

thrift stock returns and portfolio interest rate sensitivity abstract in practice the interest rate sensitivity of depository institution di net worth is measured in terms of maturity mismatches arising from nominal contracts in their financial portfolios academic studies also frequently invoke nominal contracting to explain a positive covariation observed between di stock returns and bond returns for a sample of thrifts reporting detailed financial data 1984 1992 this study estimates monthly changes in their financial portfolio values due to changes in interest rates these portfolio value changes are found to be unimportant in explaining the thrifts stock returns and are unable to account for a positive covariation between the stock returns and bond market returns potential weaknesses in the tests seem inadequate to explain the results explanations other than nominal contracting may warrant more consideration in relating dis net worth to interest rate changes

structure conduct and performance a simultaneous equations investigation for the brazilian manufacturing industry the article investigated structure conduct performance scp relationships in the context of the brazilian manufacturing industry in 1996 for that purpose it considered a system with four equations pertaining concentration advertising r d and profitability that was estimated with simultaneous equation models in addition to the usual explanatory variables proxying barriers to entry and demand conditions the article considered organizational practices and incentive schemes variables the evidence indicated an important role for variables related to barriers to entry in affecting market structure an important and nonlinear effect of concentration on advertising a relevant impact of firm size on the propensity to exert r d effort and finally a significant positive impact of concentration on profitability and were similar to the previous evidence for developed countries additionally no important roles were detected for organizational practices and incentive schemes on the scp relationships

asymmetric adjustment of commercial bank interest rates evidence from malaysia and singapore abstract this paper examines the rigidity of commercial bank interest rates using evidence from singapore and malaysia an asymmetric error correction technique is used to test whether mean adjustment lags are different when retail rates are above or below their equilibrium levels it is concluded in both countries that the mean adjustment lag is shorter when the deposit rate is above its equilibrium than when it is below its equilibrium using the framework of hannan and berger 1991 this finding implies that the hypothesis of collusion cannot be rejected

money supply announcements interest rates and foreign exchange abstract this paper presents a test of the joint hypothesis that money supply announcements affect the real interest rate and that changes in the real interest rate affect the exchange rate in the short run the test results are consistent with the joint hypothesis for example it is found that announcement of an unexpected jump in the money supply is accompanied by an increase in interest rates and an appreciation of the dollar if the rise in interest rates was entirely due to higher inflationary expectations the dollar should not appreciate

reserves announcements and interest rates does monetary policy matter the author provides evidence on the perceived existence of strong liquidity effect the analysis is based on the response of the term structure of interest rates to the weekly federal reserve announcements of bank reserves during the post october 1979 period it is shown that unanticipated changes in the mix between borrowed and nonborrowed reserves cause expected real interest rates to change after the announcement because they provide information about a future change in the supply of money a precise model is developed and tested during subperiods of nonborrowed and borrowed reserves targeting by the fed

menu costs posted prices and multiproduct retailers we use a unique store level data set to directly measure menu costs and to study the price change process at a large u s drugstore chain we compare and contrast the magnitude of these measures with similar measures from four large u s supermarket chains we find that 1 the actual magnitude of menu costs as a share of revenues 2 menu costs per price change 3 the frequent use of promotional pricing and 4 the use of weekly pricing rules are similar across both retail formats given that the main common features of these two types of retail formats are that i they both use posted prices and ii both are multiproduct retailers selling a large number of products our findings suggest that the magnitude of the menu cost components we measure and the price change practices we document may be generalizable across retail formats with these two features

excess liquidity bank pricing rules and monetary policy abstract this paper studies the implications of excess bank liquidity for the effectiveness of monetary policy in a simple model with credit market imperfections the demand for excess reserves is determined by precautionary factors and the opportunity cost of holding cash it is argued that excess liquidity may impart greater stickiness to the deposit rate in response to a monetary contraction and induce an easing of collateral requirements on borrowers which in turn may translate into a lower risk premium and lower lending rates as a result asymmetric bank pricing behavior under excess liquidity may hamper the ability of a contractionary monetary policy to lower inflation

market driven coal prices and state administered electricity prices in china this paper analyzes how the chinese government adjusts electricity prices for both industrial and residential users in response to changes in coal prices using an asymmetric error correction model our results show that there is a long term relation between the coal price and electricity prices but the relationship is weak especially for residential pricing in the short run we find electricity prices are adjusting faster upwards than downwards price adjustment towards long run equilibrium is faster for residential users upwards than downwards on the other hand we find no evidence of asymmetric equilibrium adjustment in the electricity price for industrial use the weak long term relationship reflects the rigidity in electricity pricing and government s reluctance to subject end users to fluctuations of raw materials cost shifts

market response to the weekly money supply announcements in the 1970s the hypothesis that the weekly announcement of the money supply affects interest rates is examined the announcement effect is interpreted as a policy anticipation effect that is an unanticipated increase in the money supply leads to an increase in interest rates in anticipation of future tightening by the federal reserve estimates of this effect with proxies for the unanticipated change constructed from a survey of money supply forecasts and an arima model indicate that a financial markets respond very quickly to the announcement and b the response was largest when policymakers emphasized the importance of the monetary aggregates financial market participants are careful observers of the weekly money supply announcement and generally agree that the announcement often leads to changes in interest rates this occurs because the announcement leads market participants to revise their expectations both of future federal reserve policy actions and of future economic conditions in this paper we examine the response of yields on treasury bills to the announcement of the money supply and the extent to which that response has varied in the last ten years money supply announcements may affect market interest rates in three ways first actual expansion of the money supply leads to lower interest rates through a liquidity effect however rapid monetary growth which is not anticipated leads market participants to expect the federal reserve to counteract such growth in the future as a consequence there may be a policy anticipation effect which causes higher interest rates in anticipation of future tightening furthermore prolonged rapid monetary growth also creates inflation and inflationary expectations which lead to higher interest rates thus there may exist a third effect the inflationary expectations effect which also leads to higher interest rates our interest in this paper is in the immediate market response to the weekly announcement of the money supply which as we argue below is most likely to be a policy anticipation effect the policy anticipation effect is best described by example suppose that the announced change in the money supply exceeds that which was expected by

monetary policy transparency and pass through of retail interest rates abstract this paper examines the degree of pass through and adjustment speed of retail interest rates in response to changes in benchmark market rates in new zealand during the period 1994 2004 we consider the effects of policy transparency and financial structure of the monetary transmission mechanism new zealand is the first oecd country to adopt a full fledged inflation targeting regime with specific accountability and transparency provisions policy transparency was further enhanced by a shift from quantity settlement cash to price interest rate operating targets in 1999 using phillips loretan estimates of cointegrating regressions we find complete long term pass through for some but not all retail rates our results also show that the introduction of the official cash rate ocr increased the pass through of floating and deposit rates but not fixed mortgage rates in line with previous studies we find the immediate pass through of market interest rates to bank retail rates to be incomplete although we find no statistical evidence for asymmetric response of retail rates to changes in market rates other than for business lending rates in the pre ocr period differences in the magnitude of mean adjustment lags indicate that banks appear to pass on decreases to fixed mortgage rates faster overall our results confirm that monetary policy rate has more influence on short term interest rates and that increased transparency has lowered instrument volatility and enhanced the efficacy of policy

regional interest rate pass through in italy this paper estimates the pass through and speed of adjustment of italian regional interest rates to changes in the money market rate for the period 1998q1 2009q4 our main findings suggest that the markup for the lending rates that banks charge are generally higher in the south than in the north moreover our results indicate that the pass through tends to be longer in southern regions we find little evidence supporting the hypothesis of asymmetric adjustment in the lending rates but detect some evidence supporting upward rigidity in the regional deposit rates

unanticipated inflation and the value of the firm abstract evidence presented here indicates that the relationship between stock returns and unexpected inflation differs systematically across firms the differences are shown to be consistent with cross sectional variation in firms nominal contracts monetary claims and depreciation tax shields the differences are also partially explained by proxies for underlying firm characteristics that could create interaction between unexpected inflation and operating profitability finally much if not most of the differences appear to arise because unexpected inflation is correlated with changes in expected aggregate real activity the effects of which tend to vary across firms according to their systematic risk

the return of the liquidity effect a study of the short run relation between money growth and interest rates in this article i use band pass filters to investigate the short run relationship between money growth and interest rates i find a negative correlation between short run movements in money growth and interest rates which i interpret as evidence that the liquidity effect dominates the anticipated inflation effect

profitability concentration imports and exports the case of taiwan s midstream petrochemical industries based on an open economy oligopoly model causalities among domestic firms price cost margin pcm domestic concentration import and export shares are derived and a simultaneous equation system is established by utilizing the 1989 1997 data of taiwan s midstream petrochemical industries three stage least squares is used to estimate the system the empirical results confirm the derived results and demonstrate 1 there exist simultaneous relationships among domestic pcm domestic concentration import and export shares 2 import concentration affects domestic concentration positively but affects domestic pcm import and export shares negatively 3 diversifying international markets improves domestic firms pcm 4 domestic firms seem to be in a situation of collusion

monetary policy implementation and the federal funds rate this paper investigates how the implementation of monetary policy affects the dynamics and the volatility of the federal funds rate since the early 1980s the most important changes in the fed s conduct of monetary policy refer to the role of the federal funds rate target and the reserve requirement system we show that the improved communication and transparency regarding the federal funds rate target has significantly increased the fed s influence on the federal funds rate since 1994 by contrast the declining role of required reserves in the u s has contributed to higher federal funds rate volatility our results suggest that the planned introduction of remunerated reserves will further enhance the controllability of the federal funds rate

testing the expectations hypothesis when interest rates are near integrated nominal interest rates are unlikely to be generated by unit root processes using data on short and long interest rates from eight developed and six emerging economies we test the expectations hypothesis using cointegration methods under the assumption that interest rates are near integrated if the null hypothesis of no cointegration is rejected we then test whether the estimated cointegrating vector is consistent with that suggested by the expectations hypothesis the results show support for cointegration in 10 of the 14 countries we consider and the cointegrating vector is similar across countries however the parameters differ from those suggested by theory we relate our findings to existing literature on the failure of the expectations hypothesis and to the role of term premia

monetary transmission via the administered interest rates channel abstract this paper examines the dynamics of administered interest rate changes in response to changes in the benchmark money market rate in singapore our results show that the administered rates adjustment speed differs across both financial institutions and financial products the financial institutions administered lending and deposit rates moreover are more rigid when they are below their equilibrium level than when they are above our finding hence implies that the speed of monetary transmission is not uniform across all sectors of the economy and that a tightening monetary policy takes a longer time to impact the economy than an expansionary monetary policy

an alternative approach to the modelling of interest rate pass through and asymmetric adjustment abstract we propose an alternative approach to examine the nonlinear asymmetric behaviour of interest rates which can be both size and sign dependent compared to other widely used approaches our model performs quite well based on two model selection criteria

modelling british interest rate adjustment an error correction approach an error correction model is used to capture the dynamics of british retail deposit and loan rate responses to changes in the central bank s base rate the test is conducted using a monthly series of interest rates for four generic retail banking products over the period 1986 93 the adjustment process is found to vary considerably between and within banks and products the results suggest that this market continues to exhibit many features of imperfect competition and that adjustment differences could affect the speed of the money transmission mechanism

bank funding costs in a rising interest rate environment one key risk to the banking system is how funding costs will change as monetary policy is normalized and interest rates rise after almost a decade of near zero rates our contribution is to develop a model that jointly estimates banks balance sheets and retail interest rates to arrive at a consistent estimate of the change in bank funding costs as market rates change our estimates imply a 100 basis point shock to the federal funds rate would increase overall deposit funding costs by about 40 billion which is roughly equal to 25 of aggregate annual net income for commercial banks and savings institutions we also find that deposit rate responses are largely symmetric in contrast to some previous research showing deposit rates are less responsive to upward movements in reference rates we introduce unique and confidential data on bank deposit betas to anchor our results

structure conduct and performance a simultaneous equations approach a simultaneous equations framework is used to study the relationship between structure conduct and performance in us manufacturing in the 1980s and 1990s the paper expands on earlier structure conduct performance studies by using a lag structure to signify that structure conduct and performance do not affect one another contemporaneously findings support some aspects of the traditional structure conduct performance model but challenge others first the data suggest that industry structure does not depend on current industry performance second little evidence is found that industry conduct proxied by advertising is affected by industry structure third results show that industry performance does not depend on industry conduct though it is sensitive to industry structure the main findings are that 1 concentration does not depend on firm profitability though profitability depends on concentration 2 advertising follows a process that is independent of the factors considered here and 3 ad