a critical assessment of some neo marxian trade theories the neo marxian unequal exchange literature has been largely bypassed in mainstream discussions of theories of comparative advantage during the 1970s in so far as the unequal exchange literature attempts to explain international factor price non equalisation for labour the problems addressed are of more general relevance in my work on this topic i have attempted to distinguish between studies within a classical marxian tradition some of which have been recently written and those neo marxian writers whose work is more broadly compatible with the sraffa or neo ricardian analysis of comparative advantage the purpose of this paper is to survey the latter sub set of the neo marxian literature not only because of its importance in many discussions of third world issues but also because of its own intrinsic merits

the infant export industry argument when actual consumption experiences are required to learn about a commodity s qualities subsidization of infant exporters can be justified as a first best policy measure this paper develops a dynamic model of optimal foreign market cultivation and examines the type and magnitude of trade intervention that is warranted and how this intervention adjusts over time it also focuses on changing production consumption and trade patterns as well as on welfare implications for individuals and society as the subsidization process unfolds international borrowing is allowed and is shown to cushion against severe welfare losses in the early phases of export subsidization l argument en faveur de la protection d une industrie d exportation dans la phase initiale de son developpement quand on ne peut apprecier les qualites d un bien qu en le consommant effectivement on peut defendre comme politique optimale les subventions aux exportateurs dans la phase initiale de production de leur bien ce memoire developpe un modele dynamique de mise en valeur optimale des marches etrangers et examine quel type d intervention est justifiee quelle intensite de support est necessaire et a quel moment cette aide doit etre modifiee a mesure que le temps passe l auteur examine aussi les implications pour la structure de la production de la consommation et du commerce de ce type d intervention ainsi que ses effets sur le niveau de bien etre des individus et de la collectivite l emprunt international permet d amortir le choc de pertes de bien etre importantes dans les phases initiales de la subvention des exportations

from the classical economists to empiricists a review of the terms of trade controversy contrary to the classical position the works of prebisch and singer in the middle of the last century launched the controversial hypothesis of a long term decline in the terms of trade of primary products vis a vis manufactured goods and a corresponding decline in the terms of trade of developing countries vis a vis advanced ones the present study traces the origin and evolution of the hypothesis and reviews the related statistical debate it also reviews the theoretical support for the prebisch singer hypothesis it is an exercise in the history of economic thought to trace how the controversies surrounding the terms of trade have evolved over time specifically noting that with the development of the field of econometrics the central thesis of the argument got lost somewhere in the realm of hi tech statistical debates

south north trade and southern growth bleak prospects from the structuralist point of view abstract a three country three commodity model is developed to illustrate the dynamics of growth among the north the south and opec one conclusion is that the southern growth rate will be increased by faster growth of northern capital with a steady state response coefficient of unity however if the steady state is perturbed by increases in northern productivity or the oil price then the coefficient becomes less than one in the short run higher capital flows from north to south increase the former s growth rate but may have only marginal impact on growth in the south higher productivity in the south will slow its growth rate and reduce its terms of trade when the engel elasticity of northern demand for its exports is less than one these and other results follow from surplus labor in the south and its dependent position in international trade from which it will be difficult to escape

vertical trading and uneven development abstract the phenomenon of vertical trading in which the center exports a good involving a high degree of processing which leads to economy wide learning and the periphery exports a good which does not generate such effects is formalized in a simple dynamic model of trade it is shown that the periphery can lose from such trade relations conditions under which this can occur are shown to involve parameters of the learning functions and the sizes of the two countries

trade accumulation and uneven development abstract this paper develops a two country model of capital accumulation and growth where the industrial sector exhibits increasing returns to scale it shows that uneven development is a necessary outcome in such a model an initial discrepancy in capital labor ratios between the two countries will cumulate over time leading to the division of the world into a capital rich industrial region and capital poor agricultural region which region takes on which role depends on primative accumulation that is on which region starts with more capital if capital is mobile internationally the model can given rise to a two stage pattern of development a first stage where trade is the engine of growth in the leading country and a second in which foreign investment takes on that role which is reminiscent of the hobson lenin theory of imperialism

ricardo s international trade theory beyond the comparative cost example that the labour embodied in the export goods given in exchange for one unit of the imported good is less than the labour which the country would have to utilise if it itself were to produce one unit of the imported good there is no question that this ricardian model based on the example of england and portugal trading cloth for wine in chapter 7 of ricardo s principles of political economy and taxation 1951a is an excellent pedagogical device to illustrate the role of compara tive advantage in determining a country s trade pattern and the resulting gains from trade ricardo showed that trade enhances a country s welfare even though it may be more efficient than its trading partner in producing each of its commodities as long as its relative productivity advantage differs between them the principle of comparative advantage

remittances investment and rural asset accumulation in pakistan internal and external migration can have a profound impact on rural asset accumulation in most third world countries in many african asian and latin american countries the bulk of the labor force still lives in the countryside in these countries the large difference between expected rural and urban or foreign incomes coupled with the risk reducing functions of migration causes workers to migrate either to urban centers or abroad the remittances defined as the money or goods sent home by migrant workers can have a large effect on the accumulation of assets in these rural areas for example an inflow of external remittances to rural households at the upper end of the income distribution could increase land accumulation by the rich in general terms the effect of remittances on asset accumulation in a rural third world economy depends on answers to three questions a who migrates b how much net income do migrants remit and c what are the marginal effects of these remittances on household consumption and investment because of data limitations in this article i propose to examine only the first and the third questions other researchers have addressed the second issue in the past surprisingly little attention has been focused on the question of the marginal effects of remittances on household consumption and investment in the rural third world this inattention has been due to three considerable methodological problems the first is fungibility because remittances are like any other form of cash income it is difficult to associate this income source with any particular changes in household expenditure behavior the second problem relates to the multiple round effects of remittances on the local economy for example an inflow of remittances into a rural area may lead to a surge in expenditures in housing which may in turn create new income and employment opportunities for the poor and unskilled unfortunately however few studies have

the fundamental determinants of the terms of trade reconsidered long run and long period equilibrium ronald findlay s analysis of the long run equilibrium uniform international growth rates determinants of the terms of trade in the context of north south models of trade and growth is reconsidered when the north is a keynesian and a kaleckian economy also examined are the determinants of the terms of trade in long period equilibrium uniform profit rates so that the consequences of capital mobility are accounted for two surprising results are noted first the long run terms of trade when the north is a kaleckian economy will be independent of the north s markup and second in the long period it is theoretically possible for the north to raise its markup but experience a deterioration in its own terms of trade copyright 1990 by american economic association

explaining differences in public sector efficiency evidence from russia s regions summary using the case of russia s regions this paper extends the literature on public sector efficiency in three directions an attempt to better understand differences in public sector efficiency through the study of subnational governments in one country the first examination of public sector efficiency of subnational governments in emerging markets and the first study of public sector efficiency in russia three types of scores of public sector performance and efficiency indicate substantial differences across regions an econometric examination suggests that they are largely explained by per capita income the share of federal transfers in subnational government revenue quality of governance and democratic control and the level of spending

fiscal policy and regional output volatility evidence from russia eller m fidrmuc j and fungac ova z fiscal policy and regional output volatility evidence from russia regional studies this paper investigates the relationship between fiscal policy and output volatility in russian regions between 2000 and 2009 accounting for endogeneity between output volatility and fiscal developments by using system generalized method of moments gmm estimation techniques the results indicate that discretionary fiscal policy contributes to output volatility and induces macroeconomic instability at the regional level in russia this corroborates previous studies using cross country data to reduce business cycle fluctuations it would be necessary to curtail procyclical fiscal activism at the regional level e g via fiscal rules and sound institutions of fiscal federalism

vertical specialization in a ricardian model with a continuum of stages of production the traditional models of the pure theory of international trade have mainly discussed specialization in final goods that is the entire vertical processing of a good is done in the country that specializes in that good thus if a country specializes in the production of clothing the raw materials needed for the production of clothing are also produced in that country vertical specialization 1 on the other hand means that the countries specialize along the vertical productive spectrum of a good one country may produce yarn and export it while the other country may produce clothing with imported yarn the traded goods under vertical specialization are final goods as well as raw materials a good typically has many stages along its vertical spectrum and a country can specialize at any one of those stages the question that immediately arises is what determines the particular stage at which the vertical spectrum is broken so that each country can specialize in one part to put it differently if a country is seen to be specializing in the production of yarn there must be some reason why it does not specialize in raw cotton the purpose of this paper is to answer that question in section i a very simple model is described with two countries and one final good and it is shown how the stage of specialization can be determined as an endogenous variable section ii discusses the price system and the gains from trade while section iii briefly discusses how the model can be extended to incorporate two final goods

the relationship between factor endowments and commodity trade abstract the paper establishes general propositions concerning the relationship between a nation s factor endowments and its pattern of commodity trade in a multi factor multi product context inequality relationships between endowments and autarky prices autarky and free trade prices and between autarky prices and free trade net exports are established using a general model of trade attention is then restricted to a multi product multi factor version of the heckscher ohlin samuelson model of trade from an initial autarky equilibrium a comparative statics analysis yields the effect on net exports of a change in one nation s endowment a bilinear inequality between the changes in endowments and net exports is established it is also shown that if a good were to be exported imported when endowments changed and world prices were held fixed then it will continue to be exported imported when world prices have adjusted to re establish free trade equilibrium

growth in post soviet russia a tale of two transitions abstract in the early stages of post soviet russia s economic transition small scale entrepreneurial activity appeared to be a strong engine of growth moreover striking regional variations in initial conditions and adopted policy reforms appeared useful in accounting statistically for observed regional variations in entrepreneurial activity here we investigate whether these relationships have persisted as russia s transition has continued to evolve and find that they have not we then document that the emergence of bank issued credit virtually non existent outside of moscow prior to 2000 has been an important engine of growth since 2000 thus to date russia s post soviet development appears as a tale of two distinct transition paths

emigration to south africa s mines this paper presents a simultaneous econometric model of both the determinants of international migration to the south african mines and of some of the economic consequences for each of the labor supplying countries not only are the short run effects of labor withdrawal on traditional crop cultivation and the domestic wage labor markets considered but also the long term effects of savings from mine earnings invested in crops and cattle in the home countries the experiences of botswana lesotho malawi mozambique and the south african homelands are compared it is shown that emigration to the south african mines has reduced crop production in the subsistence sectors of botswana lesotho malawi and the south african homelands in the short run but the results also suggest that earnings of migrants have enhanced both crop productivity and cattle accumulation in the longer run except in lesotho excerpt

patterns of transition from plan to market patterns of transition from plan to market martha de melo cevdet denizer and alan gelb hungary s bankruptcy experience 1992 1993 cheryl w gray sabine schlorke and miklos szanyi why and when do governments initiate public enterprise reform jose edgardo campos and hadi salehi esfahani roads land use and deforestation a spatial model applied to belize kenneth m chomitz and david a gray industrial centralization in indonesia j vernon henderson and ari kuncoro guidlines on searching for a dalton improving tax reform an illustration with data from indonesia shlomo yitzhaki and jeffrey d lewis a new data set measuring income inequality klaus deininger and lyn squire

food supply and inflation abstract the paper presents an analytic version of the latin american structuralist theory of inflation it emphasizes the difference between the productive sectors of the economy and draws attention to the fact that the inflationary process is closely linked to inconsistent claims for shares in income it describes a keynesian economy with two three sectors real desired wages are rigid money is passive it is shown that the structuralist hypotheses are capable of generating disequilibria that can lead to constantly rising prices without any built in mechanism to offset them steady inflation can only persist if workers allow their real wage to be kept below target as the workers try to catch on the model will blow up an accelerating inflation can be observed in many latin american countries during periods when wage settlements aimed at restoring inflation losses escaped the government control the paper also explores the implications of foreign trade it shows that under structuralist hypotheses external disequilibria cannot be corrected through exchange rate devaluations alone and it examines the stagflationary impacts of an increase in the price of imported intermediates

elephant poaching ivory trafficking problems in sub saharan africa an application of o hara s principles of political economy this paper examines the complex social problem of african elephant decimation using a political economy approach this paper applies five principles of o hara s political economy pope historical specificity circular and cumulative causation uneven development heterogeneous agents and contradiction pope provides a practical tool for scrutinising the interdependent aspects of a problem the culture of conspicuous consumption for ivory is a key historical driver of demand yet a core integrated factor that helps explain the current crisis relates to the principle of uneven development the role of uneven development can be indirect through lack of human development causing high crime and corruption rates weak policy frameworks and conflicts in land ownership further heterogeneity of agents adds to the complexity of the networks engaged in the decimation of elephants linked to the poaching trafficking circuit of heterogeneous agents this paper identifies two specific elephant contradictions between the market forces of durable fixed capital and environment elephant capital this study contributes to the literature by analysing the interlinking cumulative processes of elephant poaching and ivory trafficking networks which previous studies in the economics literature tend to ignore

cash transfer programme productive activities and labour supply evidence from a randomised experiment in kenya this paper reports analysis of the impact of kenya s cash transfer for orphans and vulnerable children programme on the household decisions on productive activities using data from a randomized experimental design results show that the programme had a positive and significant impact on food consumption coming from home production accumulation of productive assets especially on the ownership of small livestock and on formation of nonfarm enterprise especially for females the programme has provided more flexibility to families in terms of labour allocation decisions particularly for those who are geographically isolated the programme was also found to have reduced child labour an important objective of the programme however we find very little impact of the programme on direct indicators of crop production

migration transfers and economic decision making among agricultural households an introduction abstract the increasing volume of remittances and public transfers in rural areas of the developing world has raised hopes that these inflows may serve as an effective mechanism for reducing poverty in the long term by facilitating investments and raising productivity particularly in agriculture where market failures are most manifest the seven papers in this special issue systematically test the relationship between transfers and productive spending amongst rural households in six different countries overall the studies embrace a less optimistic view of the role of migration and public and private transfers on agriculture with migration as facilitating a transition away from agriculture or to models of less labour intensive agriculture

on the long run outcome of the lewis nurkse international growth process abstract this essay formalizes the model of international growth advanced by w arthur lewis in his 1979 nobel prize address and by ragnar nurkse in the 1950 s both of them employed the model to support their respective cases for pursuit of a balanced growth strategy by the ldc s the purpose of the formalization undertaken here is to examine the theoretical consequences for the secular ratio of ldc to mdc incomes as the lewis nurkse growth process unfolds the paper explores whether or not growth in lewis nurkse fashion must mean persistent poverty for the ldc s in addition the formalization provides an explicit characterization of economic dependence

transforming rural economies migration income generation and inequality in rural mexico abstract we analyse how migration shapes the distribution and sources of rural income using nationally representative panel data from mexico income source gini decompositions provide some support for the migration diffusion hypothesis nevertheless migration s influence on other income sources and household re ranking substantially alter distributional impacts we find significant impacts of migration on non remittance income as well as changes in the effects of non migration activities on inequality over time we conclude that migration is transforming rural economies in ways that go beyond the scope of most past research on migration and inequality

a tale of two reforms i identify the absence of well functioning product markets in transition economies as a sufficient condition under which big bang reduces output initially while a chinese style reform increases output big bang dismantles central planning or centralized organization of production permitting monopolistic and vertically interdependent enterprises to pursue their own monopoly profits by restricting output and inter firm trade to the detriment of the economy as a whole the chinese reform by maintaining central planning but allowing enterprises to produce for the emerging product markets after they have fulfilled their output quotas under planning gives enterprises incentives to expand output beyond planned targets

stagnation income distribution and monopoly power the deceleration in the rate of industrial growth in the indian economy since the middlesixties initially interpreted by some as a temporary downward deviation from trend hasnow come to be generally accepted as reflecting long run tendencies towards stagnation several explanations for these tendencies have been offered bhagwati and desai 1970 and bhagwati and srinivasan 1975 have focused on inefficiencies and the misallocationof resources arising from industrial policies pursued by the government others chakravarty 1974 raj 1976 and vaidyanathan 1974 among them have emphasisedthe sluggishness of agricultural growth which is alleged to have retarded industrial growthby limiting markets and the supply of wage goods and raw materials a third view reflectedin srinivasan and narayana 1977 for example has put the blame on a slackening of invest ment demand due to lower public investment but does not explain why public investmentfell or why its fall restrained industrial growth finally there is the explanation put forthin bagchi 1970 1975 1982 in nayyar 1978 and in parts of mitra 1977 that inequali ties in income distribution have resulted in a limited demand for industrial goods reducedincentives for investment and therefore reduced growth this view seems to suggest apositive relation between growth and income equality which is opposed to the generallyaccepted idea derived from cambridge growth models that higher growth requires greaterinequality the purpose of this paper is to examine the last explanation by considering the inter action between growth and income distribution in an underdeveloped economy with thehelp of a simple macroeconomic model the model is a stylisation of the indian economy so that we will be able to use the model to assess the argument that a deceleration in therate of growth of the indian industrial economy could have been caused by an unequaldistribution of income the argument will not be made that this income distributional con straint is the binding constraint on industrial growth the model will merely examine theinternal consistency of the argument that a bad income distribution could explain stagnation in the sense of reduced growth and show that in the indian context as in other similarcontexts this argument can be put forward in explaining stagnation our argument is first presented with a highly simplified schematisation of the indianeconomy which we shall call the basic model the economy modelled produces only one

on the transformation of theorems abstract professor w ethier 1979 has argued that replacing land by capital in the familiar 2 2 trade model leaves the four basic theorems unaffected with time phasing and a positive interest rate in fact ethier s hos and fpe theorems are different in kind from the traditional ones the traditional theorems predict certain results in terms of trade independent data ethier s theorems describe equilibrium in terms of factor endowments and intensities defined by equilibrium prices hence his theorems do not support his central message that nothing is lost in trade theory by treating capital as if it were homogeneous land

the direction of trade past and present and the learning effects of exports to different directions abstract this paper looks at the direction of trade in manufacturer the pattern predicted by the hos model hasn r materialized but some sense of the historical pattern is made by looking at the distribution of world income as well as exporting countries policies and product composition given the historical pattern and in particular the direction of japan s trade it is argued that developing countries today are under exporting to one another this is to their detriment insofar as trade among less developed countries teends to be comprised of manufactures that are skill and learning intensive the scope for an increase in such trade is assessed

the transition to a market economy pitfalls of partial reform we present a theory of a partial economic reform of a planned economy similar to the one that took place in russia since 1988 and in china earlier in such a reform some markets are liberalized in the sense that producers can sell output to whomever they want including private firms at free prices but at the same time must sell to state firms at state prices we show that such a reform can result in a substantial diversion of subsidized inputs away from state firms and toward private firms even when state firms value these inputs more the result may be a reduction of total output the simple analysis sheds light on many consequences of the soviet reform such as breakdown of coordination of production increased state policing of delivery quotas prohibitions of trading cooperatives and opposition to privatization the model also explains why partial reform failed in russia but worked in china

migration to the united states and mexican rural development a case study an analysis of the impact of migration to the united states on the sending community and on the labor market in the receiving country is presented based on a case study of las animas mexico as the community becomes increasingly involved in migration tendencies can be identified regarding changing migration patterns class differentiation among villagers impact of migration on village economy and the changing role of mexican workers in california labor markets results indicate the importance of social networks in determining the outcome of migration while migration is individually rational it is a factor of stagnation for village economy and it helps reproduce segmented california labor markets excerpt

reform without losers an interpretation of china s dual track approach to transition this paper develops a simple model to analyze the dual track approach to market liberalization as a mechanism for implementing efficient pareto improving economic reform that is reform achieving efficiency without creating losers the approach based on the continued enforcement of the existing plan while simultaneously liberalizing the market can be understood as a method for making implicit lump sum transfers to compensate potential losers of the reform the model highlights the critical roles of enforcement of the plan for achieving pareto improvement and full liberalization of the market track for achieving efficiency we examine how the dual track approach has worked in product and labor market liberalization in china

developmental states and socialist industrialisation in the third world development economics as a discipline and the idea of the state as the organiser of economic activity are inseparable basic concepts and distinctions are put forward to unravel the complex question of the role of the state in the industrialisation process these are then used to examine the state in three waves of socialist industrialisation which shows a strong capacity to mobilise and direct economic social and political resources the typically pervasive state may however outlive its historically progressive role and become a bastion of economic irrationality and political authoritarianism

accumulation of capital and the foundation of the tendency of the rate of profit to fall especially since n okishio 1961 the theory of the tendency of the rate of profit to fall is controversial in marxist economics because the microeconomic foundations for it seem inadequate the okishian argument is based on a comparative static equilibrium approach it is indicated how within a dynamic disequilibrium framework of capital stratification these foundations may well be provided the rate of profit for innovating capitals may then rise while that for the economy as a whole may fall nevertheless tendencies are not trends the tendency of the rate of profit to fall seems to be manifest cyclically interconnected with other tendencies of accumulation copyright 1991 by oxford university press

the international context for industrialisation in the coming decade export orientated industrialisation strategies are currently in vogue whether as an active choice by ldcs or as a consequence of pressure from the imf and the world bank the attractiveness of these strategies stems from the historic success of the nics particularly south korea taiwan singapore and hong kong yet there are signs that the changing nature of the global economy will have a major impact on industrialisation in peripheral economies and in particular on eoi strategies this paper focuses on four aspects of this changing international climate restricted market access radical electronics based technical change the nature of the structural adjustment programmes enforced by the imf and the world bank and the effect of increased military expenditures in the third world

north south trade and southern industrialization abstract this paper presents a simple model of international trade and growth between a mature industrial region the north and a semi industrial primary exporting region the south under capital autarky per capita southern industrial output is minimized if the north is at the golden rule point regardless of whether capital is internationally mobile northern transfers to the south will not necessarily raise southern industrial output unless they reach a critical level additional transfers may crowd northern private investment in the south out if this critical level is not attained the effects of changes in saving behavior and technical progress are also studied

trade as the engine of growth in developing countries revisited economic growth in developed countries since the mid 1970s the only way to keep the engine of ldc growth beating at a satisfactory rate so the argument goes is to turn to an alternative source of fuel this lewis argues lies in trade among the developing countries which he asserts can take up the slack left by mdcs more developed countries as mdcs slow down 1980 p 560 pessimism about demand for ldc exports in developed countries markets is a recurrent theme in the development literature also familiar is the approach taken by lewis to dismiss past successes of ldcs in world trade by declaring the alleged engine of past growth to be no longer operating satisfactorily the intellectual foundations of the import substitution strategy laid in the 1950s by prebisch myrdal and most importantly nurkse rested on similar grounds arguing that the demand for periphery countries exports in the 20th century is far weaker than it was in the 19th century trade was dismissed as an engine of growth a function nurkse alleged it had served in the 19th century the solution prescribed in the 1950s was to look inward in effect to scrap the trade engine altogether lewis remedy coming two decades later when most importsubstitution possibilities in many ldcs have been all but exhausted retains the trade engine but seeks an alternative source of fuel to drive it the classic critique by irving kravis 1970 of nurkse s thesis of trade as a faltering engine of growth showed that export expansion did not serve in the nineteenth century to differentiate successful from unsuccessful countries p 850 this followed from two findings first that successful 19th century countries showed few signs of export dominated growth second that unsuccessful periphery countries enjoyed export expansion in the second half of the 19th century of the same order of magnitude as the temperate regions of recent settlement this led kravis to conclude that a more warranted metaphor

policy reform and growth in post soviet russia in pursuit of its transition from a command to a market economy russia has witnessed enormous regional differences in economic growth rates moreover the implementation of economic reforms has also differed markedly across regions we analyze whether regional differences in reform policies can account for regional differences in growth rates and conclude that to a considerable degree they can most notably we find that regional differences in price liberalization policies exhibit a positive direct correspondence with growth we also find that regional differences in large scale privatization exhibit a positive correspondence with the regional formation of new legal enterprises which in turn exhibits a strong positive correspondence with growth

trade and protection with multistage production this paper analyses trade in manuf acutured goods that are produced via a vertical production structure with many stages where some value is added at each to an intermediate product to yield a good in process ready for the next stage we consider the stage at which a good is traded to be an economically endogenous variable with comparative advantage determining the pattern of production specialization by stages across countries we study how endowment changes and policy shifts move the margin of comparative advantage which thus provides a channel for resource allocation adjustment that is additional to the usual ones of factor substitution and changes in the quantity of output

north south terms of trade and growth a macroeconomic framework on kaldorian lines abstract in the presidential address to the royal economic society 1976 nicholas kaldor presented an informal model of the world economy on this kaldorian line this paper presents a north south growth model it has been observed that there is no relationship between the monopoly power of the northern capitalists and the north south terms of trade technical progress in the south has a declining impact on the southern terms of trade while technical progress in the north does not have a similar impact on the northern terms of trade furthermore this model shows that the south as a whole cannot speed up its long term growth rate through export promotion rather it faces a terms of trade loss

can globalisation stop the decline in commodities terms of trade in this paper we address the following question would a fully integrated world economy eliminate the widely reported decline in the terms of trade of primary commodities we address the question by looking at the terms of trade within the us a highly integrated economy our findings show two results first us internal real commodities terms of trade over the 1947 1998 period experienced slowly declining but significant trends second once we control for the effect of us prices on international terms of trade we find a long run relationship between the us and international relative prices these findings support the view that the decline of commodities terms of trade bears no relationship with the process of globalisation this seems to indicate that if world terms of trade behaved as the us terms of trade neither increased integration nor protectionist measures would eliminate this trend

the origins of uneven development the indian subcontinent in the 17th century the indian subcontinent henceforth india was not significantly less developed than britain but between 1757 when britain began colonizing india and 1947 when india gained independence and british growth had already slowed down the ratio between british and indian per capita income increased at least tenfold angus maddison 1971 and several countries initially less developed than india grew rapidly while india stagnated the obvious question is what caused this uneven development the answer to this question is important for understanding both the roots of india s present economic backwardness and the current division of

new evidence of regional income divergence in post reform russia this article investigates regional income convergence in russia during 2000 2008 we test the hypothesis in which income divergence across regions of the country should give place to income convergence as the country moves toward free market economy with strong market institutions the study contributes to the existing literature by using the exponential smooth autoregressive augmented dickey fuller adf unit root test in a panel setup a novel econometric technique which encompasses cross sectional dependence results show strong evidence of on going regional income divergence in post reform period

the new economics of labor migration this paper reviews selected theoretical and empirical developments in the field of labor migration economics the migration behavior of individuals differs in accordance with their perceived relative deprivation those who are relatively more deprived tend to have stronger incentive to migrate than those who are relatively less deprived moreover a reference group characterized by more income inequality is likely to generate more relative deprivation highly skilled workers are also more likely to migrate migration decisions are often made jointly by the migrant and nonmigrant with a contractual arrangement regarding the sharing of costs and returns the exchange of commitments to share income provides coinsurance of particular interest are the determinants of the speed of adoption of migration as an innovation and the characteristics associated with the delay in the adoption of innovation new econometric techniques including techniques for the analysis of qualitative dependent variables techniques that correct for sample selection bias and those for the analysis of longitudinal data have substantially benefited empirical research in this area new methods that can correct for the biased estimate of the wages particular individuals would receive at 2 or more locations at the same point in time allow researchers to test locational decsion making models estimates of these structural models of labor migration support the hypothesis that individuals respond to income incentives in making the decsion to migrate further research is needed on the pazzling observation that migrant workers earn less than native born workers with similar characteristics during the 1st few years after migration but more thereafter other topics that need further research include the macroeconomic effects of migration the microeconomic and macroeconomic relationships between aging and labor migration and the migration behavior of dual earner families

the relationship between credit and productivity in chinese agriculture a microeconomic model of disequilibrium credit is an important element in agricultural production systems it allows producers to satisfy the cash needs induced by the production cycle which characterizes agriculture preparation planting cultivation and harvesting of the crops are typically done over a period of several months in which very little cash revenue is earned while expenditures on materials purchased inputs and consumption must be made in cash cash income is received a short time after the harvest in the absence of credit markets farmers would have to maintain cash reserves so as to facilitate production and consumption in the next cycle the availability of credit allows both greater consumption and greater purchased input use and thus increases welfare of the farmers

technical change and the profit rate a simple proof of the okishio theorem this note presents a simple geometrical proof of okishio s celebrated theorem on the falling rate of profit okishio 1961 my intent is simply to clarify how okishio s theorem works i will thus refrain from comment on the general debate on the falling rate of profit in marxian economics on the limits of the general linear model used here or on the importance and range of applicability of okishio s contribution to those unfamiliar with the general linear model and the frobenius theorems used here i recommend reference to brody 1970 or pasinetti 1977 the essential economic assumptions underlying the following proof are that there are no scarce non produced means of production no land that each industry produces a single product no joint products that labour is homogeneous and that there are no fixed capital goods the period of production of all goods and the turnover time of all capital goods is one period these are okishio s assumptions recent contributions those of roemer 1979 for example have generalized okishio s result somewhat using the usual notation i will let

on migration and risk in ldcs the authors develop the hypothesis that aversion to risk rather than expectations of higher income is the primary motivation for rural urban migration in developing countries this hypothesis maintains that an optimizing risk averse small farmer family will try to place a family member in the urban sector in order to diversify its income portfolio an additional hypothesis related to risk is also considered at the individual rather than the family level annotation

industrial profitability and trade among the former soviet republics the break up of the soviet union claudia senik leygonie and gordon hughes this article looks at profitability and trade in the republics of the former soviet union looking at individual industries republic by republic there emerges a picture of some highly profitable sectors along with others with negative value added the most profitable industries mostly associated with oil and gas extraction are the least protected the least intensive in labour and already the most developed the least efficient industries include food processing and light industry and are the most protected ones trade patterns both within the former soviet union and with the rest of the world are unrelated to comparative advantage consequently sizable gains from trade are potentially available and the relevant industries are identified when the single trade balance constraint is replaced by constraints at the republic level it is clear that russia stands to benefit from not having to cover with its surpluses the deficits of the other republics russia again along with kazakhstan and ukraine should benefit from a shift to market based terms of trade

using weather variability to estimate the response of savings to transitory income in thailand this paper measures the extent to which farmers are able to use savings and dissavings to smooth consumption in response to unexpected shocks to income time series information on regional rainfall is used to construct estimates of transitory income due to rainfall shocks the relationship between these measures of transitory income and savings indicates that farm households save a significantly higher fraction of transitory income than nontransitory income jel d91 016 the incomes of farm households in developing countries are notorious for being both low and uncertain policies that increase the incomes of farmers may well be different

migration and incomes in source communities a new economics of migration perspective from china the objective of this paper is to understand the effects of china s migration on source communities and to discuss their policy implications we draw from new economics of labor migration nelm theory to understand how migration and migrant remittances can relax or tighten market constraints in china s rural economy using simultaneous equation econometric techniques and household survey data from china we estimate net sectorspecific effects of migration on rural household income focusing on farm production and self employment our econometric findings indicate that the loss of labor to migration has a negative effect on household cropping income in source areas however we provide evidence that remittances sent home by migrants positively compensate for this lost labor effect contributing to household incomes directly and indirectly by stimulating crop and possibly self employment production this finding offers evidence in support of the nelm hypothesis that remittances loosen constraints on production in the imperfect market environments characterizing rural areas in less developed countries taking into account both the multiple effects of migration and the change in household size participating in migration increases household per capita income between 14 and 30 percent migration and incomes in source communities a new economics of migration perspective from china china is experiencing the largest peacetime flow of labor out of agriculture ever witnessed in world history solinger 1999 rozelle et al 1999 despite the rapid expansion of labor migration china s work force is still disproportionately employed in agriculture compared to other countries at similar levels of per capita gdp taylor and martin 2001 hence as china s economy continues to expand the flow of labor to urban areas will continue and even accelerate johnson 1999 the massive flow of labor away from farms has intensified research interest in china s migration in recent years however as in the broader literature on migration in less developed countries most recent studies on china s migration have focused on determining the size and composition of the labor flow macroeconomic implications of increased migration and the effects of migration on urban areas zhao 1999 yang 1999 1997 less emphasis has been placed on researching the effects of migration on the rural communities that migrants leave even though evidence shows that the rural household in the village of origin is typically the central concern of all those involved in migration both those who leave and those who stay behind exceptions include wang and zuo 1999 bai 2001 moreover the recent increase in migration has left policy makers particularly concerned regarding the way source communities will be affected moa 1999 they are concerned that as labor flows away from farms food production and crop income will decline potentially threatening china s food security furthermore policy makers are concerned about the increasing gap between urban and rural household incomes if migration exacerbates this gap some fear that as it grows rural residents eventually will flood cities ill equipped to absorb them others fear that discontent over a rising urban rural income gap could even spill over into political unrest yang 1999 because china s markets and other modern economic institutions are still relatively undeveloped migration may play a pivotal role in creating or overcoming constraints caused by the lack of well functioning markets and or institutions knight and song 1999 benjamin and brandt 2000 the new economics of labor migration nelm literature analyzes migration as a household decision rather than as an individual decision stark 1991 the nelm hypothesizes that rural households facing imperfect market environments decide

monopoly power and uneven development baran revisited baran examined the implications of the rise in monopoly power in advanced economies for the underdevelopment in poor countries and the process of uneven development on a world scale this article examines his work critically and then presents a north south model which defines uneven development in a precise manner and analyses the mechanism by which the rise in monopoly power leads to such uneven development it is shown that the process can work even without reference to imperialism which is a central but controversial element in baran s analysis

migration remittances and agricultural productivity in china in our paper we have used the new economics of labor migration framework to trace the complex linkages that exist among migration remittances and agricultural productivity in china constraints in the operation of on farm labor and capital or insurance markets or institutions provide households with a motivation to migrate and distort on farm operations when labor leaves in our household sample the net impact of migration and remittances on maize production is negative excerpt

migration and food consumption patterns in ghana abstract this paper examines the link between migration and food consumption patterns in ghana which has a history of widespread migration and high levels of poverty data from 4130 households from the nationally representative 2005 2006 ghana living standards survey are used for the analysis since migrants self select into migration an instrumental variable approach is taken to analyze the relationship between migration and total food expenditures per capita food expenditures across a range of food categories and shares of food expenditures across these categories overall the results indicate that migration does not substantially affect total food expenditures per capita and has minimal noticeable effect on food expenditure patterns looking at results in different settings the analysis indicates that only in high migration regions does migration appear to increase overall food expenditures resulting in a shift towards the consumption of potentially less nutritious categories of food such as sugar and beverages and eating out of the home the results raise questions about the value of migration for improving the food consumption of migrant sending households

state structure and economic adjustment of the east asian newly industrializing countries an analysis of the economic adjustment policies of hong kong singapore south korea and taiwan during the 1970s and 1980s shows that these east asian newly industrializing countries nics which faced common problems in sustaining their recent industrial growth responded to the challenge with industrial adjustment strategies that differed in their degree of intensity of state involvement and emphasis on national control to explain this divergence in adjustment strategies the article explores the variations in the national political structures of the four nics and focuses particularly on three aspects of state structure the organization of the economic bureaucracy the institutional links between the state and private sector and the larger state society relations the article demonstrates the usefulness of moving beyond the generalizations of the developmental state view by carefully disaggregating these aspects of state structure and by exploring the ordering logic that gives coherence to them

trade industrialisation and the visible hand the paper examines the neo classical case for the export orientated industrialisation strategy questioning not only its representation of what has occurred in the newly industrialising countries but also raising some doubts about the validity of the analytical model which is implicit in its policy prescriptions an alternative analytical framework and political economy model is then sketched out the experience of south korea and taiwan is used for illustrative purposes highlighting areas where further conceptual and empirical analysis is required to give a fully blown alternative story an appendix offers a brief summary and critique of some recent neo classical work on the relationship between price distortion and growth

new developments in trade theory and ldcs abstract this paper surveys the new literature on international trade relevant to the north south controversy in the first part two types of north south models are considered the unequal exchange theory of lewis and emmanuel and the models of dynamic interaction of findlay taylor and others the analysis focuses on the determinants of growth the terms of trade and relative employment in the world economy in the second part the paper reviews the empirical literature on south north and south south trade and the theories of north south technological gaps intra industry trade and external economies finally we analyze the literature on exports and economic growth and the neo classical keynesian and disequilibrium approaches to the theory of import controls

technology creation in semi industrial economies abstract technological activities in the semi industrial economies of latin america leading to the adaptation of imported technologies as well as the development of new products and processes have been both an involuntary byproduct of manufacturing activities and the result of deliberate decisions to set up technological research facilities technological research reported by latin american firms is shown to be largely complementary to production and carried out to reap the extra benefits of protection external effects are thus disregarded since the benefits from industrial production suffice to induce the requisite adaptive research the paper suggests that the as yet not well understood interaction between industrial and technological development be studied by focusing on technology as information and engineers as its processors looking at the learning stages from using imports to the creation of new products and examining these processes in terms of a progression toward increasing technological complexity

industry and underdevelopment re examined recent work by lipton stewart warren and others has from differing standpoints called into question much of the conventional wisdom of the dependency school shared by my book industry and underdevelopment about the relationship between development and industrialisation four of these arguments that industrialisation is necessary to meet human needs that underdeveloped countries are in general not succeeding in industrialising that capital intensive technology is desirable and that industrialisation requires more autarky are re examined they are all found to be in need of considerable modification but the general lines of the proferred alternatives to them are for the most part not accepted either part of the problem is diagnosed as insufficient concern for the human consequences of actually existing industrialisations and too nationalistic a conception of socialism

revisiting the revisited terms of trade will china make a difference in challenging the conventional wisdom at the time singer and prebisch posited a number of explanations for declining terms of trade of developing economies including both country and product specific factors over the past decade we have begun to witness a simultaneous process of price differentiation within commodities with the prices of some commodities increasing and within manufacturing with the price of many manufactures falling these price changes may reverse the decline in the terms of trade of commodity producers the entry of china into the global market has played an important role in this augmenting the demand for many hard commodities its role as an exporter of manufactures coupled with concentration in global buying may undermine the prices of many manufactures

radical political economy and the economics of labor markets this essay is the result of a long process involving many drafts and revisions i am grateful to duncan foley for the careful and constructive criticisms offered throughout the project the following people read the manuscript at different stages and although they often disagreed with me they generously provided helpful comments two anonymous referees for this journal samuel bowles william dickens greg dow robert drago richard edwards kathleen engel richard freeman james galbraith herbert gintis jody hoffer gittel sandfordjacoby tom kochan david levine lisa lynch paul osterman michael piore bob rebitzer gil skilman dan slesnick robert thomas and tsuyoshi tsuru comments from participants in seminars at the massachusetts institute of technology university of massachusetts at amherst and hitotsubashi university are also gratefully acknowledged

exports of technology from semi industrial economies and local technological development abstract this paper analyzes technology exports from five of the most industrially advanced developing countries argentina brazil india korea and mexico it explores the nature of the exports and of the exporting firms identifies the competitive advantage underlying different types of technology exports and analyzes the comparative advantages of the five countries in these exports based on an analysis of different strategies toward the trade in the elements of technology it summarizes tentative lessons about relationships between trade in the elements of technology country and firm strategy and local technological development