political holes in the economy the business network of partisan firms in hungary this article redirects attention from the question of how business ties have an impact on politics to the question of how political ties have an impact on business specifically do divisions within the field of politics become divisions in the field of business networks to study co evolution of political and economic fields we conducted a historical network analysis of the relationship between firm to party ties and firm to firm ties in the hungarian economy we constructed a dataset of all senior managers and boards of directors of 1 696 corporations and the complete set of all political officeholders from 1987 to 2001 findings from our field interviews and dyadic logistic regression models demonstrate that director interlocks depend to a significant extent on political affiliations although the political and economic fields have been institutionally separated firms and parties have become organizationally entangled firms of either left or right political affiliation exhibit a preference for par

revisiting the model of credit cycles with good and bad projects abstract we revisit the model of endogenous credit cycles by matsuyama 2013 sections 2 4 first we show that the same dynamical system that generates the equilibrium trajectory is obtained under a much simpler setting such a streamlined presentation should help to highlight the mechanism through which financial frictions cause instability and recurrent fluctuations then we discuss the nature of fluctuations in greater detail when the final goods production function is cobb douglas for example the unique steady state possesses corridor stability locally stable but globally unstable for empirically relevant parameter values this also means that when a parameter change causes the steady state to lose its local stability its effects are catastrophic and irreversible so that even a small temporary change in the financial friction could have large permanent effects on volatility other features of the dynamics include an immediate transition from the stable steady state to a stable asymmetric cycle of period n 3 along which n 1 2 consecutive periods of gradual expansion are followed by one period of sharp downturn as well as to a robust chaotic attractor these results demonstrate the power of the skew tent map as a tool for analyzing a regime switching dynamic economic model

dividend effects in israel a puzzle abstract we examine whether stock returns on ex dividend days in the tel aviv stock exchange tase reflect the differential taxation of dividends and capital gains tase data offer significant advantages over data used by prior studied less frictional trading and identifiable tax rates we find that stock prices on the tase on ex dividend days exhibit significant abnormal returns surprisingly we find no evidence of short term trading around ex dividend days to exploit these profit opportunities

ex dividend day stock price behavior the case of the 1986 tax reform act this paper analyzes the behavior of stock prices around ex dividend days after the implementation of the 1986 tax reform act that dramatically reduced the difference between the tax treatment of realized long term capital gains and dividend income in 1987 and completely eliminated the differential in 1988 we show that this tax change had no effect on the ex dividend stock price behavior which is consistent with the hypothesis that long term individual investors have no significant effect on ex day stock prices during this time period the results indicate that the activity of short term traders and corporate traders dominates the price determination on the ex day

new evidence that taxes affect the valuation of dividends this paper uses british data to examine the effects of dividend taxes on investors relative valuation of dividends and capital gains british data offer great potential to illuminate the dividends and taxes question since there have been two radical changes and several minor reforms in british dividend tax policy during the last 30 years studying the relationship between dividends and stock price movements during different tax regimes offers an ideal controlled experiment for assessing the effects of taxes on investors valuation of dividends using daily data on a small sample of firms and monthly data on a much broader sample we find clear evidence that taxes affect the equilibrium relationship between dividend yields and market returns these findings suggest that taxes are important determinants of security market equilibrium and deepen the puzzle of why firms pay dividends financial economists have long been puzzled by corporate dividend behavior many individual investors should value a dollar of corporate dividends less than a dollar of corporate retentions because the former gives rise to greater tax liabilities corporations however face equal costs of paying out dividends and retaining earnings miller and modigliani 31 demonstrated that in the absence of taxes dividend policy should have no effect on share valuation if dividends are tax penalized however a value maximizing firm should pay no dividends widespread dividend payments to taxable investors are therefore surprising in 1981 dividend tax revenues in the united states were estimated to exceed 20 billion dollars indeed some have interpreted the large volume of dividends paid as evidence against the rational behavior postulates typically used by economists the dividend question has stimulated a large theoretical and empirical literature concerned with the qluestion of investors valuation of dividends in particular the question of how taxes affect the market valuation of dividends has generated considerable controversy numerous studies including auerbach 2 litzenberger and ramaswamy 24 26 morgan 34 and rosenberg and marathe

dualism and macroeconomic volatility this paper develops a simple macroeconomic model that shows that combining capital market imperfections together with unequal access to investment opportunities across individuals can generate endogenous and permanent euctuations in aggregate gdp investment and interest rates reducing inequality of access may be a necessary condition for macroeconomic stabilization moreover countercyclical escal policies have a role to play in our model savings are underutilized in slumps because of the limited debt capacity of potential investors therefore the government should issue public debt during recessions in order to absorb those idle savings and enance investment subsidies or tax cuts for investors the most important single fact about saving and investment activities is that in our industrial society they are generally done by different people and for different reasons for years there might tend to be too little investment leading to deeation losses excess capacity and unemployment for other years there might tend to be too much investment leading to periods of chronic ineation unless prudent and proper public policies in the escal and monetary eelds are followed paul a samuelson economics 8th edition 1970 pp 196 198

financial intermediation and regime switching in business cycles the authors study a one sector growth model where capital investment is credit financed and there is an adverse selection problem in credit markets the presence of adverse selection creates an indeterminacy of equilibrium many equilibria display permanent fluctuations characterized by transitions between walrasian regimes and regimes of credit rationing cyclical contractions involve declines in real interest rates increases in credit rationing and withdrawals of savings from banks for some configurations of parameters all equilibria display cyclical fluctuations the authors provide sufficient conditions for deterministic cycles consisting of m periods of expansion followed by n periods of contraction to exist copyright 1998 by american economic association

chaos significance mechanism and economic applications imagine a bargaining model say involving diplomats negotiating tariff levels or a disarmament treaty in which each party has been instructed by higher headquarters to respond to each new offer by her opposite number with a counteroffer that is to be calculated from a simple reaction function provided in advance both negotiating parties are prohibited from revealing their own reaction functions to the other if the perfectly deterministic sequence of offers and counteroffers that must emerge from these simple rules were to begin to oscillate wildly and apparently at random the negotiations could easily break down as each party not understanding the source of the problem came to suspect the other side of duplicity and sabotage yet all that may be involved as we will see is the phenomenon referred to as chaos a case that is emphatically not pathological but in which a dynamic mechanism that is very simple and deterministic yields a time path so complicated that it will pass most standard tests of randomness chaos has become a subject of great interest to specialists and nonspecialists alike besides economics it has entered the literature of geometry physics ecology and meteorology it has been written about at length in the new york times magazine and scientific american as well as technical publications this article seeks to describe what it is how it works and what it means for economics

growing through chaotic intervals abstract we consider a growth model proposed by matsuyama k matsuyama growing through cycles econometrica 67 2 1999 335 347 in which two sources of economic growth are present the mechanism of capital accumulation solow regime and the process of technical change and innovations romer regime we will shown that no stable cycle can exist except for a fixed point and a cycle of period two the necessary and sufficient conditions for regular or chaotic regimes are formulated the bifurcation structure of the two dimensional parameter plane is completely explained it is shown how the border collision bifurcation leads from the stable fixed point to pure chaotic regime which consists either in 4 cyclical chaotic intervals 2 cyclical chaotic intervals or in one chaotic interval

moral hazard credit cycles with risk averse agents abstract we consider a simple overlapping generations model with risk averse financial agents subject to moral hazard efficient contracts for such financial intermediaries involve back loaded late career rewards compared to the analogous model with risk neutral agents risk aversion tends to reduce the growth of agents responsibilities over their careers this moderation of career growth rates can reduce the amplitude of the widest credit cycles but it also can cause small deviations from steady state to amplify over time in rational expectations equilibria we find equilibria in which fluctuations increase until the economy enters a boom bust cycle where no financial agents are hired in booms

the ex dividend day behavior of stock prices the case of japan we provide a comprehensive empirical analysis of stock price behavior around the ex dividend day in japan we find that prices rise on the ex day and that dividend related tax effects appear to be secondary returns around ex dividend days are dominated by the proximity of many ex days to the fiscal year end excess returns of 1 percent which are independent of any dividend related considerations are higher than round trip transaction costs on medium sized transactions prices seem to imply selling pressure before and buying pressure at the start of the new fiscal year these trading patterns appear to be motivated by intercorporate manipulative trading around the end of the firms fiscal year which are unrelated to dividends article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

volatile capital flows and financial integration the role of moral hazard abstract we study a model in which income and capital flows between countries are jointly determined in a world economy with integrated financial markets in a setting that combines risky entrepreneurial activity with moral hazard we find that a shift from autarky to financial integration leads to boom bust cycles in capital flows output and consumption moral hazard causes cycles because financial intermediaries incentivize effort by insisting entrepreneurs take an equity share in their own projects the size of this stake rises with wealth discouraging entrepreneurship and inhibiting capital formation the reverse is true when wealth falls generating cycles

a model of moral hazard credit cycles this paper considers a simple model of credit cycles driven by moral hazard in financial intermediation financial agents or bankers must earn moral hazard rents but the cost of these rents can be efficiently spread over an agent s entire career by promising large late career rewards if the agent has a consistently successful record dynamic interactions among different generations of financial agents can create credit cycles with repeated booms and recessions in recessions a scarcity of trusted financial intermediaries limits investment and reduces employment under such conditions taxing workers to subsidize bankers may increase employment enough to make the workers better off

tax induced trading of equity securities evidence from the adr market we examine ex dividend date trading of american depositary receipts adrs using a sample of 1 043 dividends over the period 1988 to 1995 adr dividends are often subject to foreign withholding taxes creating incentives for certain investors to avoid the distribution adrs exhibit negative abnormal ex dividend day returns and their prices behave consistently with their related withholding taxes abnormal trading volume for taxable issues exceeds 130 percent and 300 percent of normal volume on the cum and ex dates respectively abnormal volume is an increasing function of foreign withholding tax rates and decreasing function of transactions costs this abnormal exdate trading activity is consistent with tax motivated trading this paper provides empirical evidence from a sample of american depositary receipts adrs that foreign taxes on dividend income are positively associated with abnormal ex dividend day trading activity researchers have long been interested in the question of whether taxes affect investor behavior around ex dividend days such work has implications for corporate financial and distribution policies and for government tax policies adrs provide a unique setting in which to examine the effects of taxes on investor trading behavior because of the unique features of the foreign withholding taxes that apply to them a number of studies have attempted to isolate the determinants of ex dividend day pricing and trading activity of u s equities and there is considerable evidence of tax induced investor behavior around the ex dividend day for common

growing through cycles the neoclassical growth model focuses on factor accumulation as an engine of growth while the neo schumpetarian growth model stresses innovation this paper argues that these two views of growth may capture different phases of a single growth experience in the model presented below the balanced growth path is unstable and the economy achieves sustainable growth through cycles under an empirically plausible condition perpetually moving back and forth between two phases one phase is characterized by higher output growth higher investment no innovation and a competitive market structure the other phase is characterized by lower output growth lower investment high innovation and a more monopolistic market structure both investment and innovation are essential in sustaining growth indefinitely and yet they move in an asynchronized way only one of them appears to play a dominant role in each phase the economy grows faster along the cycles than along the unstable balanced growth path

dividends taxes and common stock prices the ex dividend day behavior of common stock prices before the income tax this study examines the ex dividend day behavior of common stock prices before the enactment of the federal income tax on ex dividend days during the pre tax period stock prices fell on average by the full amount of the dividend the data are consistent with the hypothesis that i investors in the pre tax period value dividends and capital gains as perfect substitutes and ii the differential taxation of dividends and capital gains has since caused investors to discount the value of taxable cash dividends in relation to capital gains

tax induced trading around ex dividend days abstract this paper investigates trading volume around ex dividend days for taxable distributions cash dividends it is found that trading volume increases significantly around the ex dividend day this increase is more pronounced for high yield actively traded stocks and after brokerage commissions became negotiable the results are consistent with the hypothesis that short term traders have an impact on ex day price behavior at least for taxable distributions for non taxable distributions stock splits and stock dividends we find negative abnormal volume around ex day

the value of the voting right a study of the milan stock exchange experience i study the large premium 82 percent attributed to voting shares on the milan stock exchange the premium varies according to the ownership structare and the concentration of the voting rights and it can be rationalized in the presence of enormous private benefits of control a case study seems to indicate that in italy private benefits of control can easily be worth more than 60 percent of the value of nonvoting equity a tentative explanation for these findings is provided traditional finance theory disregards the value of voting rights in pricing common stock in most cases this omission does not seem harmful many studies of differential voting stocks in different countries have indicated that voting rights are generally worth between 10 percent and 20 percent of the value of common stock the italian evidence i present differs sharply from this view in italy voting shares that have inferior dividend rights trade at an average premium

the effect of tax heterogeneity on prices and volume around the ex dividend day evidence from the milan stock exchange to investigate the effect of taxation on stock price and trading volume around the ex dividend day we use the italian stock market where dividends on two classes of stock are taxed differently we find that the weighted average of investors tax rates is reflected in the ex day prices and the variance of the relative tax rate across investors is reflected in the volume of trades we also show that higher transaction costs result in higher ex dividend day excess returns and lower abnormal volume this finding is consistent with profit elimination activity by institutions and corporations article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

credit traps and credit cycles we develop a simple macroeconomic model of credit market imperfections with heterogeneous investment projects the projects differ in productivity the investment requirement and the severity of agency problems behind the borrowing constraints a movement in borrower net worth shifts the composition of the credit between projects with different productivity levels thereby causing endogenous investment specific technological change furthermore such endogenous technological change in turn affects borrower net worth these composition effects could give rise to credit traps credit collapse leapfrogging credit cycles and growth miracles in the dynamics of the aggregate investment and borrower net worth jel e22 e44 o33

ex dividend price behavior of common stocks this study examines common stock prices around ex dividend dates such price data usually contain a mixture of observations some with and some without arbitrageurs and or dividend capturers active our theory predicts that such mixing will result in a nonlinear relation between percentage price drop and dividend yield not the commonly assumed linear relation this prediction and another important prediction of theory are supported empirically in a variety of tests marginal price drop is not significantly different from the dividend amount thus over the last several decades one for one marginal price drop has been an excellent average rule of thumb article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

dividend capture in nasdaq stocks abstract we examine the importance of dividend capture trading in nasdaq stocks by testing for cross sectional relations between ex day abnormal returns and bid ask spreads throughout we find that ex day returns and spreads are positively related the relation increases across dividend yield quintiles and is strongest in high yield stocks the relation does not appear in a sample of non ex dividend days these findings indicate that dividend capture trading affects the ex day returns of at least some particularly high yield nasdaq stocks and that dividend capture trading is important for understanding ex dividend day returns

cross border investing with tax arbitrage the case of german dividend tax credits german dividends typically carry a tax credit which makes the dividend worth 42 86 more to a taxable german shareholder than to a tax exempt or foreign shareholder this results in a penalty for foreign investors who buy and hold german dividend paying stocks i document that as a result of the credit the ex day drop exceeds the dividend by more than one half of the tax credit and show that futures and option prices embed more than one half of the tax credit the existence of the credit creates opportunities for cross border tax arbitrage in which foreign holders of german stock transfer the dividend to german shareholders and implies that it is tax efficient for foreign investors to hold derivatives rather than investing directly in german stocks the empirical findings are consistent with costly tax arbitrage activity by german investors who face tax risk due to antiarbitrage rules since dividend tax credits exist in many other countries the findings are potentially of broad interest

stock market microstructure and return volatility evidence from italy abstract this paper studies the impact of the stock market microstructure on return volatility and on the value discovery process in the milan stock exchange the primary trading mechanism employed by this exchange is a call market which is usually preceded and followed by trading in a continuous market we find that the opening transaction in the continuous market has the highest volatility and that opening the market with the call transaction seems to produce relatively lower volatility in the closing transaction investors correct perceived errors or noise in the prices set at the call the implications of the results for market design are examined