broadcast advertising and u s demand for alcoholic beverages quarterly data for 1977 1994 on alcohol consumption and advertising are used to estimate a differential demand system including explanatory variables for broadcast advertising and print advertising the model explains the growth rate of per capita consumption dependent on explanatory variables for prices real income demographic changes and real advertising by media and beverage empirical results also are reported for total consumption of pure alcohol the results for the three beverages and total alcohol indicate that advertising has little or no effect on demand the empirical evidence thus supports the notion that regardless of media advertising affects mainly brand shares

consistent solutions in atomless economies we consider the problem of allocating a bundle of commodities among a group of agents who are collectively entitled to them we prove for an atomless economy with possibly satiated preferences any solution that is efficient equitable and consistent must select allocations that are supported by equal budget walrasian equilibria with slack we consider the problem of allocating a bundle of commodities among a group of agents who are collectively entitled to them we search for systematic methods or solutions of resolving this problem for a solution to be considered desirable we propose that it should satisfy several requirements first it should be efficient second it should be equitable a variety of distributional require ments have been proposed in the literature the requirement we will impose here is that it select allocations at which no agent would prefer the equal division of the social endowment to his own consumption in addition to these two basic efficiency and equity conditions we require that the solution be consistent the recommendations it makes for any economy are never contra dicted by the recommendations it makes for any reduced economy obtained by allowing some subgroup of agents to leave the scene with their allotted consumptions the requirement of consistency is very natural here is a motivation for it offered by thomson 1988 consider all the resources available on the planet earth one would like not only that they be distributed fairly when the planet is considered as a whole but also that whatever resources end up in each continent country city be fairly distributed among the members of that subpopulation when considered in isolation in this paper we study economies with a large number of agents modelled as a complete atomless measure space our main result is a characterization of the solutions that satisfy all three requirements of efficiency equity and con sistency it follows from our result that under standard assumptions on preferences any such solution must select allocations that are supported by equal income walrasian equilibria however our characterization holds for more general economies since it applies to economies in which preferences are possibly satiated mas colell 1988 extended traditional general equilibrium theory to the class of such economies by introducing the notion of walrasian

the conventional wage share vs full employment implications for the development of growth theory traditionally classical theorists assume a constant conventional share of wages in gross output this assumption together with fixed proportions creates endogenous growth via an ak style model pasinetti explored this model when the wage is allowed to adjust to ensure full employment we use cointegration analysis to explore the empirical tractability of each specification full employment suggests productivity growth and per capita growth should be cointegrated in the alternative no relationship exists because per capita growth is driven by the growth rate of capital while labour productivity follows its own path this suggests a simple test of each specification consequences for future development of the classical approach are explored

nonparametric estimation of the effects of advertising the case of lydia pinkham this article reexamines some of the issues raised subsequent to the classical research by palda 1964 we use a nonparametric estimation method that allows us to incorporate both seasonal and smoothness constraints to estimate the parameters of a demand function using monthly data on lydia pinkham s vegetable compound the analysis indicates that the parameters of the estimated demand equation are not constant throughout the long period of the data which covers the whole life cycle of the product

a micromodeling approach to investigate the advertising sales relationship the purpose of this paper is to derive a model of advertising effects on the firm s sales a micromodel is postulated and aggregated across individuals and over time to produce a macromodel of the aggregate sales advertising relationship for a single product the micromodel postulated is very simple it incorporates two factors reach of the ads and rate of decay of their effectiveness over time this approach to modeling advertising effects is shown to be fruitful in several respects 1 the coefficients of the aggregate equation are easily interpretable in terms of the reach and decay parameters 2 the model derived is nonlinear yet estimable 3 a special case of the model is very similar to lag models that have been in use 4 the model can be used whatever the unit of time is 5 the carryover effect of advertising as commonly defined is not constant but depends upon the previous spending levels and 6 the model helps illustrate that the duration of advertising may be greatly overstated if aggregate lagged dependent variable models are simplistically interpreted

seasonality and the effect of advertising on price does advertising make markets more or less competitive this paper lays out an econometric strategy for estimating the effect of advertising on prices that exploits seasonal demand and imperfect targeting of consumers we find mostly negligible effects of advertising on prices at monthly frequency among the 35 of 131 product categories with sufficient advertising seasonality to justify second stage estimation only nine have a significant effect and those are typically small this finding is essentially the result of the much greater seasonality in advertising than price

recovering measures of advertising carryover from aggregate data the role of the firm s decision behavior data interval bias the biased estimation of advertising carryover in aggregate data can be viewed as a misinterpretation of the aggregate advertising sales relationship due to missing micro advertising data this paper argues that if the researcher does not explicitly model the firm s advertising decisions he will incorrectly interpolate the missing data and thereby allow the firm s decision behavior to influence inferences about advertising carryover drawing upon a general model of advertising decision behavior the expected aggregate form of the koyck relationship is developed and compared to existing bias correction methodologies although it is difficult to find any parsimonious procedure which is robust with respect to all types of decision behavior allowing lagged advertising to enter the classical koyck equation emerges as a simple method of obtaining a reasonable estimate of advertising carryover in aggregate data

endogeneity and simultaneity in competitive pricing and advertising a logit demand analysis in this article we use four data sets to provide a benchmark study of the effects of accounting for endogeneity and simultaneity in estimating marketing mix effects in a logit demand framework we compare the results obtained from accounting for endogeneity only to those from accounting for both endogeneity and simultaneity and in the latter case we allow for more general models of firm behavior to examine the consequences of imposing assumptions about the behavior of firms we find that accounting for both endogeneity and simultaneity not only affects the parameter estimates but also results in efficiency gains that affect the statistical significance of the estimates

sraffa labor theories of value and the economics of real wage rate determination the labor theory of value and the question of whether or not a real wage rate versus profit rate trade off exists have been topics debated since the times of ricardo and marx more recently these topics have been investigated using sraffa s standard commodity approach it is argued here that such approaches are basically flawed however it also is shown that there are situations consistent with perfect competition for which negatively sloped real wage rate versus profit or interest rate trade offs do exist thus despite perfect competition genuine bargaining situations may arise between workers and owners of the capitalistic means of production

modeling response to advertising and pricing changes for v 8 cocktail vegetable juice this paper is based on a series of studies undertaken for v 8 cocktail vegetable juice over a five year period the studies were a consequence of management questions regarding the effectiveness of a new advertising campaign the best media mix for this campaign and the apparent wear out of the advertising copy the studies included controlled experimentation estimation of advertising response functions and exploration of price sensitivity following major price increases by v 8 it was found that the short term response to advertising was s shaped and that the new creative approach rather than expenditure levels alone accounted for by far the largest component of the impact of advertising on sales it was also found that for a short period following the major price increases v 8 became extremely price sensitive however after about six months the marginal impact of price returned to historical levels the application of results at campbell soup company their relationship to the literature and their implications for both researchers and practitioners are discussed

the red queen in action the longitudinal effects of capital investments in the mobile telecommunications sector organizations undertake capital investments in technology to generate revenues or decrease costs and thereby enhance profitability however red queen type responses by competing organizations in the form of rapid imitation and escalating of technology investments erode the ability of the investing organizations to sustain gains in profitability productivity gains from these investments may persist but they may not translate into sustained profitability gains owing to declining prices brought about by a hypercompetitive environment the emergence and erosion of benefits attributable to capital investments is examined by decomposing profitability into productivity price recovery product mix and capacity utilization and by regressing each performance measure on past technology investments a polynomial distributed lag model is estimated with quarterly data for 30 firms in the mobile telecommunications services sector from 1996 to 2005 the results indicate that capital investments are positively associated with productivity of current and future periods and their association with profitability is only positive in the future after six quarters these results highlight a unique outcome of the red queen hypothesis simply by imitating learning and investing in technology due to competition is beneficial to all firms in the industry

the persistence of marketing effects on sales are marketing efforts able to affect long term trends in sales or other performance measures answering this question is essential for the creation of marketing strategies that deliver a sustainable competitive advantage this paper introduces persistence modeling to derive long term marketing effectiveness from time series observations on sales and marketing expenditures first we use unit root tests to determine whether sales are stable or evolving trending over time if they are evolving we examine how strong this evolution is univariate persistence and to what extent it can be related to marketing activity multivariate persistence an empirical example on sales and media spending for a chain of home improvement stores reveals that some but not all advertising has strong trend setting effects on sales we argue that traditional modeling approaches would not pick up these effects and therefore seriously underestimate the long term effectiveness of advertising the paper concludes with an agenda for future empirical research on long run marketing effectiveness

bricks and mortar vs clicks and mortar an equilibrium analysis abstract the internet has provided traditional retailers a new means with which to serve customers consequently many bricks and mortar retailers have transformed to clicks and mortar by incorporating internet sales examples of companies making such a transition include best buy wal mart barnes noble etc despite the increasing prevalence of this practice several fundamental questions remain 1 does it pay off to go online 2 which is the equilibrium industry structure 3 what is the implication of this business model for consumers we study these issues in an oligopoly setting and show that clicks and mortar arises as the equilibrium channel structure however we find that this equilibrium does not necessarily imply higher profits for the firms in some cases rather it emerges as a strategic necessity consumers are generally better off with clicks and mortar retailers if firms align with pure e tailers to reach the online market we show that a prisoner s dilemma type equilibrium may arise

a strategic analysis of dual channel supply chain design with price and delivery lead time considerations abstract this paper extends the work of chiang et al 2003 by investigating how price and delivery lead time decisions affect channel configuration strategy under either the manufacturer owned or the decentralized mode we show the choice of channel structure depends on customer acceptance of the online channel and the cost parameters following a threshold policy in both forms of ownership we prove that the strategic use of direct marketing to mitigate the double marginalization the major finding in chiang et al 2003 still holds even in this general situation moreover pareto zone exists where both manufacturer and retailer outperform their counterparts in the traditional indirect channel only case thus indicating that mitigating double marginalization may bring mutual benefits we also compare pricing and delivery lead time decisions between different forms of ownership or between different channel structures under the same form of ownership the manufacturer adopts a slow down deliver later approach and speeds up delivery to serve customers with a higher sensitivity to delivery lead time when he owns the whole indirect channel but chooses to stay fast and brag about better services and surprisingly slows down the speed of service when customers are more sensitive to delivery lead time due to the internal competition between two channels in the decentralized mode

intertemporal aggregation of heterogeneous consumers abstract this paper deals with a relatively unexamined facet of stochastic brand switching models their connection to market share models we derive a composite market share model based on aggregation of heterogeneous markovian type individuals each purchasing a brand from the product class several times during the period of analysis the characteristics of this composite model are examined and interestingly suggest a markov type market share model moreover this examination sheds some light on a phenomenon uncovered in econometric studies of market share response to advertising the slow decay of the lagged market share term as the length of the measurement period is increased

the length of the effect of aggregate advertising on aggregate consumption abstract we investigate the longevity of aggregate advertising effects on aggregate consumption over the period 1947 1988 using updated methods the effects appear to linger for nine years raising further questions perhaps a return to this near dormant area of research could be productive

a meta analysis of marketing communication carryover effects abstractto optimally set marketing communication marcom budgets reliable estimates of short term elasticities and carryover effects are required empirical generalizations from meta analyses of prior field studies can help guide these decisions however the last such meta analysis of marcom carryover effects was performed on koyck model based estimates collected before 1984 and was confined to mass media advertising the authors update and extend extant empirical generalizations via two meta analyses of carryover estimates compiled from studies encompassing personal selling targeted advertising and mass media advertising using diverse model forms until 2015 the first is focused on and utilizes 918 estimates of the carryover proportion of the total effect termed long term share of the total effect and the second focuses on 863 derivable estimates of 90 implied duration intervals the authors find the mean long term shares of the total effect for personal selling 687 and targeted advertisin

private value allocations in large economies with differential information abstract we consider a radner type e g radner 1968 econometrica 36 31 58 pure exchange economy with differential information and a continuum of agents we show that under appropriate assumptions the set of aumann shapley private value allocations in such an economy coincides with the set of radner competitive equilibrium allocations journal of economic literature classification numbers c71 d51 d82

generalizing what is known about temporal aggregation and advertising carryover this paper provides a theoretical explanation for the inconsistent findings from previous econometric analyses of aggregated data concerning the duration of advertising carryover using this theoretical explanation and the knowledge of a data interval bias the paper reviews and summarizes the empirical work in the area of sales response modeling and then after adjusting for aggregation bias presents support for an empirical generalization that the average advertising duration interval is of brief duration typically between six and nine months

carryover effects and temporal aggregation in a partial adjustment model framework this paper discusses the impact of aggregating time series observations on the specification of an econometric model in the framework of a familiar sales response model temporally aggregated specifications are derived it is illustrated that different aggregation schemes provide different models each of them having appealing characteristics furthermore the derived specifications illustrate that frequently calibrated models are misspecified and as such provide biased estimates which significantly affect the interpretation of the results some suggestions are provided for estimating the exact specifications in such a way that the obtained parameter estimates provide correct insights into the underlying response process

estimating micro relationships from macro data a comparative study of two approximations of the brand loyal model under temporal aggregation the data interval bias issue in econometric studies of the relationship between advertising and sales first was discussed in jmr by clarke in 1976 within the last few years several studies report

the asymptotic nucleolus of large monopolistic market games abstract we study the asymptotic nucleolus of differentiable monopolistic market games in continuum economies with a finite number of traders types and show that under appropriate assumptions it is the center of symmetry of the subset of the core in which all the monopolists receive the same payoff thus the nucleolus discriminates the traders in the atomless sector whereas the competitive equilibrium does not moreover if there is a single syndicated atom and a finite number of atomless sectors the syndicate is treated more favorably under the asymptotic nucleolus than under the shapley value associated with the pure monopolistic market journal of economic literature classification numbers c71 d40

promocast a new forecasting method for promotion planning this article describes the implementation of a promotion event forecasting system promocasttm and its performance in several pilot applications and validity studies pilot studies involved retail grocery chains with 95 to 185 stores per trading area the goal was to provide short term tactical forecasts useful for planning promotions from a retailer s perspective thus the forecast system must be able to handle any of the over 150 000 upcs in each store s item master file and must be scalable to produce approximately 800 000 000 forecasts per year across all the retailers served by efficient marketing services inc ems inc this is a much different task than one that confronts a manufacturer even one with abroad product line manufacturers can benefit from custom modeling in a product line or category retailers need a production system that generates forecasts that help promotion planning marketing scientists have typically approache promotion analysis from the manufacturer s perspective one objective of this article is to encourage marketing scientists to rethink promotion analysis from a different perspective from the retailer s point of view the planning unit is the promotion event neither weekly store tracking data norshopping trip data from consumer panels are easily aggregated to reflect total sales during a promotion event we describe the promotion event databases and the statistical model developed using these databases the data are the strategic asset our goal is to help retailers use their data to increase the profitability of promotions we have data on the performance of each upc in each store under a variety of promotion conditions on each store s adeptness at executing various styles of promotions as well as on chain wide historical performance for each upc we use many historical averages from these databases to build a 67 variable regression style model the forecast incorporates a simple bias correction needed when using a log transformed dependent variable the natural log of total unit sales we argue that the historical averages matching the planned ad and display conditions provide a benchmark superior to the widely used base times lift method when aggregated into case units the natural unit for product ordering 69 of the forecasts in our first validation study were within one case compared to 39 within one case using the appropriate historical averages we report the results of two over time validity studies that reflect the value of our model for retailers the limitations and implications of this planning tool for managerial decision making concerning stocking levels are discussed whenever historical data are the strategic asset we face inherent limitations our model does not forecast new products the forecast error increases when an existing product is promoted in a new way over 99 5 of the time we have full data from which to create a forecast however with a database for a typical chain market containing over 20 million promotion events in the 30 month time frame we use 100 000 events have less than ideal data the breadth of the database typically 150 000 ups makes it impractical to incorporate data on competitive offerings we find that regression style modeling is not adept at incorporating information on the 1 200 subcommodities managed in our pilot stores or the 1 000 manufacturers who supply those stores despite these limitations we show the value of using promotion event data how tactical forecasts based on these data can directly impact the bottom line of grocery retailers and how store by store forecasts can help retailers with problems of running out of stock or overstocking

temporal aggregation the data interval bias and empirical estimation of bimonthly relations from annual data in an important study reviewing the literature on econometric studies of the relationship between advertising and sales clarke clarke darral g 1976 econometric measurement of the duration of advertising effects on sales j marketing res 13 november 345 357 concluded that the implied duration interval of the effects of advertising on sales were too long when the studies used annual data a theoretical explanation is provided here for the observation of parameter estimates which vary with the data interval employed in the analysis parameter estimates are developed on the basis of data aggregated at various levels of temporal aggregation and compared with theoretical values it is demonstrated that it is possible to recover bimonthly parameters when only annual data are available

the impact of a product harm crisis on marketing effectiveness product harm crises are among a firm s worst nightmares a firm may experience i a loss in baseline sales ii a reduced own effectiveness for its marketing instruments iii an increased cross sensitivity to rival firms marketing mix activities and iv a decreased cross impact of its marketing mix instruments on the sales of competing unaffected brands we find that this quadruple jeopardy materialized in a case study of an australian product harm crisis faced by kraft peanut butter we arrive at this conclusion by using a time varying error correction model that quantifies the consequences of this crisis on base sales and on own and cross brand short and long term effectiveness the proposed modeling approach allows managers to make more informed decisions on how to regain the brands pre crisis performance levels

chapter 9 econometric and time series market response models publisher summary marketing has seen a rapid expansion in the widespread use of quantitative methods correlation and regression analysis were among the first techniques used as marketing research emerged as a discipline after world war ii in the early 1970s regression analysis became econometrics simultaneous equation systems could be estimated almost as easily as single regression equations while econometrics as a whole continues to flourish as new and more sophisticated estimation techniques and associated computer software have become available simultaneous equation systems have not become widely prevalent the dynamic structure of marketing variables themselves is addressed in the chapter followed by discussions of leads and lags among marketing variables and the assessment of the direction of causality dynamic properties of sales response functions have been discussed in more detail marketing generalizations that have been uncovered as well as empirical evidence on the shape of the sales response function is reported

wearout effects of different advertising themes a dynamic bayesian model of the advertising sales relationship models of advertising response implicitly assume that the entire advertising budget is spent on disseminating one message in practice managers use different themes of advertising for example price advertisements versus product advertisements and within each theme they employ different versions of an advertisement in this study we evaluate the dynamic effects of different themes of advertising that have been employed in a campaign we develop a model that jointly considers the effects of wearout as well as that of forgetting in the context of an advertising campaign that employs five different advertising themes we quantify the differential wearout effects across the different themes of advertising and examine the interaction effects between the different themes using a bayesian dynamic linear model dlm such a response model can help managers decide on the optimal allocation of resources across the portfolio of ads as well as better manage their scheduling we develop a model to show how our response model parameters can be used to improve the effectiveness of advertising budget allocation across different themes we find that a reallocation of resources across different themes according to our model results in a significant improvement in demand

burmeister on sraffa and the labor theory of value a comment in a recent contribution to this journal burmeister 1984 formulated several objections to sraffa s concept of the standard commodity and concluded that it is basically flawed similar criticism has been put forward by burmeister on several other occasions cf burmeister 1975 1980a 1980b according to burmeister sraffa aimed at the invention of a different labor theory of value 1984 p 509 by constructing a new wage measure such that the linearity of the relationship between the rate of profit and the wage rate remains valid even when there is not equal organic composition of capital by this token all the marxian analysis that is based on the linearity can proceed free of the objectionable equal organic composition of capital assumption p 514 in this comment burmeister s interpretation and criticism of the standard commodity and his view of the relationship between it and the labor theory of value are scrutinized and it is shown that many of his claims are untenable the structure of the paper is as follows section ii prepares the ground for the subsequent discussion by explaining the labor theory of value the role of the standard of value in

modelling household purchasing behaviour to analyse beneficial marketing strategies price promotion and generic advertising are two common strategies to increase consumer demand for food products which one is preferred over the other depends largely on the relative importance of