u s domestic barter an empirical investigation this paper studies the barter industry developed in north america during the 1950s pointing out some of its main characteristics thus it examines its two main sectors i corporate barter and ii commercial barter contrary to expectations the analysis of official data shows that this phenomenon is essentially pro cyclical for the commercial barter component moreover commercial barter activity turns out to be complementary to the cash economy while the two sectors display some differences in their pattern they both help firms to increase their profits

stock price reactions as surrogates for the net cash flow effects of corporate policy decisions abstract this paper adopts a rational market structure to examine the link between the cash flow effects of management policy decisions and the resulting stock price reactions the focus is on testing cross sectional associations between cash flow effects and the underlying characteristics of affected firms we find that it is not possible to infer the sign of association between the stock price reaction and any characteristics of the firm that are observable before management announces its decision our methodological suggestions involve exploiting either a priori assumptions or sample information about the probability distribution of unobservable decision variables underlying the management decision process

when is fdi a capital flow in this paper we analyze the conditions under which a foreign direct investment fdi involves a net capital flow across countries for this purpose we investigate how multinational firms finance their foreign affiliates globally or locally we develop a contract theoretical model in which the financing structure is used to govern the incentives of managers we find that the investment tends to be financed locally if managerial incentive problems are large thus microeconomic governance problems may have macroeconomic implications for the net capital flow to host countries our results are consistent with survey data on german and austrian investment flows of firms to eastern europe

the role of market forces in assuring contractual performance the conditions under which transactors can use the market repeat purchase mechanism of contract enforcement are examined increased price is shown to be a means of assuring contractual performance a necessary and sufficient condition for performance is the existence of price sufficiently above salvageable production costs so that the nonperforming firm loses a discounted steam of rents on future sales which is greater than the wealth increase from nonperformance this will generally imply a market price greater than the perfectly competitive price and rationalize investments in firm specific assets advertising investments thereby become a positive indicator of likely performance

economies of scale and barriers to entry dixit has recently presented a model in which established firms select capacity to discourage entry but cannot employ threats they would not rationally execute after entry entry deterrence in a slight modification of this model involves the classical limit price output under linear or concave demand however the capital cost of a firm of minimum efficient scale is an upper bound on the present value of the monopoly profit stream that can be shielded from entry it is argued that this suggests the general unimportance of entry barriers erected by scale economies

international business alliance under asymmetric information technology vis a vis information advantage author affiliation chifeng dai daic siu edusajal lahiri lahiri siu edu corresponding author acknowledgment we are grateful to two anonymous referees for extremely helpful comments and suggestions 1 introductioninternational inter firm business cooperation as a means to reach a foreign marketplace has been rapidly increasing in popularity and has been growing hand in hand with the overall process of globalization business collaborations in general take different forms licensing franchising and joint venture jv are two important forms of this collaboration the exact nature of the contract between firms can also take different forms involving one or more of the following up front licensing fees equity investments annual maintenance fees milestone payments and royalties 1 for example under the jv agreement between generex biotechnology canada and sejong capital korea sejong agrees to invest 25 million in the jv as a non refundable license fee paid to generex and to purchase 5 million of generex s equity under the jv agreement between cambridge biostability united kingdom and panacea biotec india panacea purchased 1 935 million of cambridge s equity up front and signed a long term licensing agreement that provides gross royalty income to cambridge over the agreement period 2apart from the contractual arrangements another important issue in international business cooperation is the question of transfer or adaptation of technology for the international alliance ia and this has received a lot of attention in the literature see for example katz rebentisch and allen 1996 it is generally agreed that the technology adaptation issue is a rather complicated engineering and economic issue and often requires significant efforts there are four broad research questions here first why do firms from developing and industrialized countries form an alliance miller et al 1997 studied 76 ias in six developing countries they found that more than 65 of the foreign companies chose domestic partners because of their knowledge of local politics government regulations local custom and local markets and more than 70 of the domestic firms in developing countries sought collaboration with multinationals based on their superior technology the second question involves why ias have diverse contractual arrangements the third question involves how each firm s advantage and disadvantage in technology and market information affect their profits in ias do firms in the alliance always prefer more market information and better technology the final question has to do with whether technology spillover hinders the formation of an ia 3in order to answer some of the research questions outlined above we consider a simple model consisting of two firms a multinational corporation mnc and a domestic firm the firms operate under uncertain market demand the mnc possesses a production technology that is superior to that of the domestic firm however the domestic firm has an information advantage in the sense that with costly and non contractable efforts it can predict demand conditions with some probability we start with the case in which the credit market is perfect and the technology adaptation in the ia is exogenous and costless we show that in the ia the mnc optimally charges the domestic firm a lump sum payment but offers it the entire profits of the ia under the contractual arrangement market uncertainty and the domestic firm s ability to gather information increase the domestic firm s profits but not the mnc s profits in ia however the mnc prefers duopoly competition to ia if the technology adaptation is imperfect and the domestic firm s production technology is exceedingly inferior we then deviate from the benchmark case in two different directions but one at a time

the resolution of financial distress most models of financial structure embody an assumption about financial distress that causes debt to be costly to the issuing firm this approach has been criticized on the grounds that the assumed costs could be avoided by a costless financial reorganization in this article we show that despite the possibility of costless reorganization it may be rational for firms to incur significant costs in the resolution of financial distress the main assumptions that give rise to our results are the existence of asymmetric courts to impose a reorganization on the claimants of a firm article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

expectations as a source of macroeconomic persistence evidence from survey expectations in a dynamic macro model abstract embedding survey expectations in a standard dsge model helps to identify key slope parameters in standard relationships dramatically reduces the need for lagged dependent variables often motivated by price indexation and habit formation and obviates the need for autocorrelated structural shocks in the key equations formal statistical tests demonstrate that much of the persistence in aggregate data is better accounted for by slow moving expectations rather than by habits indexation and autocorrelated structural shocks

mandated countertrade as a strategic commitment abstract mandated countertrade is a policy to restrict unilateral imports a country s government thereby in effect commits domestic firms not to purchase from a foreign trading partner unless there are reciprocal sales we argue that the policy may be a rational response to fundamental contracting failures our key assumption being that sellers are incompletely informed about buyers valuations in line with observed practices the analysis suggests that an optimal mandated countertrade policy will target high mark up imports and low mark up exports implications for global welfare are ambiguous and depend upon the extent of a double coincidence of wants

frictions in project based supply of permits emissions trading in climate change can entail large overall cost savings and transfers between developed and developing countries however the search for acceptable ji or cdm projects implies a deviation from the perfect market framework used in previous estimations our model combines the search market for projects with a frictionless permit market to quantify the supply side frictions in the co2 market we also decompose the effects of frictions into the effects of search friction bargaining and bilateralism a calibration using previous cost estimates of co2 reductions illustrate changes in cost savings and allocative implications

east west joint ventures and buyback contracts abstract contractual joint ventures cjvs and the buyback form of countertrade are popular methods that socialist countries use to attract foreign investment in this paper we explore some reasons why this is so and also explain two predominant characteristics of these contracts the existence of sharing rules and minimum standard requirements on inputs the model stresses the incentive problems involved when a socialist host country which does not allow foreign direct investment uses a cjv to obtain the fruits of some knowledge based production process from a multinational enterprise

economic incentives and international trade this paper studies the importance of incentives as a determinant of international trade flows we argue that barter countertrade and foreign direct investment can be seen as efficient institutions that mitigate contractual hazards which arise in technology trade marketing and imperfect capital markets paying an import with export goods rather than cash barter helps to overcome incentive problems that arise in debt repayment of highly indebted countries payment in export goods removes the anonymity of the medium of exchange and thus allows to create a collateral for the creditor furthermore tying an import with an export countertrade helps to solve the incentive problems related to the technology transfer to developing countries the export flow serves as a hostage that deters cheating on the quality of the imported technology good the predictions of the two models are consistent with the pattern of trade of actual barter and countertrade contracts

estimating new keynesian phillips curves a full information maximum likelihood approach abstract the new keynesian phillips curve has recently become an important ingredient in monetary policy models however using limited information methods the empirical support for the new keynesian phillips curve appear to be mixed this paper argues by means of monte carlo simulations with a simple new keynesian sticky price model that single equations methods e g gmm are likely to produce imprecise and biased estimates then it is argued that estimating the model with full information maximum likelihood fiml is a useful way of obtaining better estimates finally a version of the model used in the monte carlo simulations is estimated on u s data with fiml and although the pure forward looking new keynesian phillips curve is rejected a version with both forward and backward looking components provides a reasonable approximation of u s inflation dynamics

endogenous technological change and the new keynesian model this paper develops and estimates a new keynesian nk model with endogenous technology it shows that introducing endogenous technology can solve three important puzzles faced by conventional nk m

gradual incorporation of information pharmaceutical stocks and the evolution of president clinton s health care reform abstract we examine the effect of the evolution of president clinton s health care reform proposal over january 1992 october 1993 on pharmaceutical stock prices we identify a 52 3 percent decline in market adjusted prices which we then associate with health care reform applying a new technique isotonic regression we find most of the decline occurred gradually much of the decline occurred as the clinton plan adopted strategies to contain health care costs including managed competition and implicit regulation indirect evidence suggests that the wealth lost by pharmaceutical companies may have been largely an anticipated transfer our results are relevant to understanding the likely effects of the clinton plan and more recent proposals many other policy changes are marked by gradual public revelation of information which may not be completely observable by a researcher our approach may uncover information about the anticipated effects of policies unavailable from a traditional event study

news shocks and the slope of the term structure of interest rates abstract we adopt a statistical approach to identify the shocks that explain most of the fluctuations of the slope of the term structure of interest rates we find that one shock can explain the majority of unpredictable movements in the slope impulse response functions lead us to interpret this shock as news about future total factor productivity tfp by showing that slope shocks are essentially tfp news shocks we provide a new explanation for the relationship between the slope and macroeconomic fundamentals our results also provide a new empirical benchmark for structural models at the intersection of macroeconomics and finance jel e23 e43 e52 g12 g14

sovereign debt a primer the troublesome debts of many developing countries have spawned much literature on why countries borrow on what debt contributes to growth on why countries repay and on how to deal with existing debt the author provides an analytical primer on the following aspects of sovereign debt 1 the basic accounting concepts associated with debt and some data associated with external borrowing 2 debt as a component of an optimizing model of borrowing in a competitive loan market when the borrower faces an intertemporal budget constraint 3 debt as a component of recent models of endogenous growth 4 problems arising from sovereign risk including problems of liquidity enforcement and revenue raising to finance repayment 5 incentives to repay 6 options available to a creditor whose debtor is unwilling to meet current debt service obligations and 7 debt buybacks the author concludes that in the absence of any efficiency cost imposed by outstanding debt how much a buyback benefits the borrower depends on how much buying back debt reduces what is available for repayment later the author also concludes that if there are efficiency losses associated with debt debt forgiveness can benefit both a debtor nation and its creditors contrary to claims in the literature this outcome does not require that a reduction in the face value of debt raise its market value and the debtor benefits even though the buyback raises the market price of the debt

complementary credit networks and macroeconomic stability switzerland s wirtschaftsring abstract the swiss wirtschaftsring economic circle credit network founded in 1934 provides residual spending power that is highly counter cyclical individuals are cash short in a recession and economize by greater use of wir credits a money in the production function mipf specification implies that transactions in wir form a stabilizing balance that makes up for the lack of ordinary currency thus unlike the ordinary money wir money is negatively correlated with gdp in the short run this implication is confirmed by empirical estimates such credit networks play a stabilizing role that should be considered in monetary policy

the economic institution of international barter starting with the international debt crisis in the 1980s international barter increased substantially more recently barter has emerged in russia and south east asia this paper examines how barter can help highly indebted countries to finance imports if they cannot use standard credit arrangements we argue that payment in goods is easier to enforce than payment in money however debtors may pay with inferior quality products we rank goods with respect to these incentive properties and derive the economic institution of commodity money which explains the trade pattern in barter our theoretical predictions are consistent with data on barter contracts

on designing contracts to guarantee enforceability theory and evidence from east west trade this article suggests how the literature on east west trade and the choice of contracts can be integrated into recent work on the theory of the multinational corporation and contract enforceability by using the properties of foreign direct investment as a benchmark it explains why one type of contract tends to prevail over another the explanation rests on the premise that because of the prohibition on fdi contracts are used which most closely replicate the benefits of intra firm trade while providing managerial and risk shifting services to the eastern partner

voting power in the proxy process abstract the likelihood that a firm will enact a management sponsored antitakeover charter amendment depends on ownership structure this implies that the adoption of antitakeover amendments may be anticipated then announcement returns provide a biased estimate of wealth effects an estimator that corrects for the bias induced by anticipation indicates that the enactment of an antitakeover amendment is associated with a statistically significant decrease in shareholder wealth the voting power of employee stock ownership plans and the chief executive officer plays a prominent role in determining whether a firm will adopt this type of takeover defense

on corporate governance a study of proxy contests abstract this paper examines a sample of firms experiencing proxy contests for seats on their board of directors dissident shareholders usually fail to obtain a majority of board seats nevertheless they capture some seats via mechanisms such as cumulative voting in over half of the sample contests regardless of proxy contest outcome positive and statistically significant share price performance is associated with the contest that finding is predicted by the standard economic analysis of proxy contests in which the challenges benefit shareholders by improving corporate performance the finding runs counter to the claim of berle 1962 that the economists view of proxy contests is a wholly imaginary picture a portion of the positive share price changes taking place in the early stages of some proxy contests is not permanent however and as suggested by manne 1962 is at least partially attributable to temporary increases in the market value of the vote attached to corporate shares

is antitrust too complicated for generalist judges the impact of economic complexity and judicial training on appeals abstractthe recent increase in the demand for expert economic analysis in antitrust litigation has improved the welfare of economists however the law and economics literature is silent on the effects of economic complexity or judges economic training on judicial decision making we use a unique data set on antitrust litigation in federal district and administrative courts during 1996 2006 to examine whether economic complexity impacts antitrust decisions and provide a novel test of the hypothesis that antitrust analysis has become too complex for generalist judges we also examine the impact of basic economic training on judges we find that decisions involving the evaluation of complex economic evidence are significantly more likely to be appealed and decisions of judges trained in basic economics are significantly less likely to be appealed than are decisions by their untrained counterparts our analysis supports the hypothesis that some antitrust cases are too complicated for generalist judges

trade law and product complexity abstract how does the quality of national institutions that enforce the rule of law influence international trade anderson and marcouiller argue that bad institutions located in the importer s country deter international trade because they enable economic predators to steal and extort rents at the importer s border we complement this research and show how good institutions located in the exporter s country enhance international trade in particular trade in complex products whose characteristics are difficult to fully specify in a contract we argue that both exporter and importer institutions affect international as well as domestic transaction costs in complex and simple product markets international transaction costs are a part of the costs of trade domestic transaction costs affect complex and simple products differently thereby changing a country s comparative advantage in producing such goods we find ample empirical evidence for these predictions countries that have good institutions tend to

the impact of antitrust litigation on shareholder return the hypothesis that antitrust litigation will redistribute economic power is examined using an event study framework district and appellate court findings involving firms litigating antitrust issues and the telex v ibm case are examined the results indicated that shareholders of firms involved in the litigation experienced decreases increases in return when either court finding was unfavorable favorable the telex v ibm results indicated that the district court s finding against ibm resulted in significant positive abnormal returns for computer industry firms abnormal negative returns were also found in the period surrounding the appellate court reversal copyright 1989 by blackwell publishing ltd

risk sharing in international trade an analysis of countertrade countertrade agreements in international trade refer to a trade practice in which an exporter agrees to purchase back commodities proportional to his original export sale in the future this paper provides a rationale for why such an agreement might be efficient more specifically the paper argues that countertrade represents a rational response to market incompleteness by allowing the forward selling of commodities where no organized future market exists this way countertrade helps to reduce risk by providing information on future market conditions and by offering insurance against random fluctuations in market conditions copyright 1994 by blackwell publishing ltd

a note on countertrade contractual uncertainty and transaction governance in emerging economies this paper develops a conceptual framework for analyzing organizational responses to contractual uncertainty in the context of emerging economies elaborating on hennart s 1989 transaction cost rationale for countertrade we develop a typology of exchange and transaction governance pertinent to the study of emerging economies contract trust and hostage notwithstanding the traditional explanation based on foreign exchange shortage we argue that the persistence of international countertrade illustrates organizational remedies to institutional deficiency in transaction governance

coordination commitment and enforcement the case of the merchant guild we interpret historical evidence in light of a repeated game model to conclude that merchant guilds emerged during the late medieval period to allow rulers of trade centers to commit to the security of alien merchants the merchant guild developed the theoretically required attributes secured merchants property rights and evolved in response to crises to extend the range of its effectiveness contributing to the expansion of trade during the late medieval period we elaborate on the relations between our theory and the monopoly theory of merchant guilds and contrast it with repeated game theories that provide no role for formal organization

the effect of private antitrust litigation on the stock market valuation of the firm the authors study the implications for shareholder wealth of interfirm antitrust litigation and how the costs of the dispute affect the propensity to settle upon filing defendants experience significant wealth losses that are ten million dollars larger than the wealth gains of plaintiffs financial distress behavioral constraints and follow on suits are sources of wealth leakage and influence settlement behavior since the threat of a monetary transfer has little power to explain either wealth effects or the likelihood of settlement the central concern of defendants may be the potential prohibition of profitable business practices copyright 1995 by american economic association

the effects of political connections and state ownership on corporate litigation in china abstractwe examine the effects of corporate lawsuits in china and find that litigation announcements depress the stock prices of both defendant and plaintiff firms financially distressed defendants suffer lower stock returns we find that politically connected defendants are favored in the judicial process they have higher stock returns and are more likely to appeal against adverse outcomes and to obtain a favorable appeal result state controlled defendants fare better than privately controlled defendants when it comes to appeals but do not have higher stock returns the evidence suggests that there is bias in the judicial process

tying trade flows a theory of countertrade with evidence a countertrade contract ties an export to an import usually countertrade is criticized as a form of bilateralism and reciprocity and thus as an inefficient form of international exchange in this paper the authors argue that there are circumstances in which the tying of two technologically unrelated trade flows may be efficiency enhancing they show that countertrade can be an efficient institution in international trade that solves moral hazard problems and restores creditworthiness of highly indebted countries the authors test the implications of their model using a sample of 230 countertrade contracts copyright 1995 by american economic association

disorganization and financial collapse since the fall of communism the former soviet union experienced a strong output decline and a dramatic increase in arrears and barter we develop a model which explains how these three phenomena are connected we introduce liquidity and credit constraints into a model of disorganization and show how these problems can alleviate the hold up problem we argue further that barter creates a hostage that allows to deal with disorganization when credit enforcement becomes prohibitively costly based on a firm survey in ukraine in 1997 we test how input shortages financial shortages and barter affect output growth of firms

a simple model of buybacks abstract buybacks are a type of contractual joint venture used in countertrade where the good produced is allocated in fixed proportions to the parties involved we show that buybacks can act as commitment devices when the quality of inputs cannot be contracted over