the macroeconomic news cycle and uncertainty resolution we examine the behavior of return volatility and trading at 5 minute intervals in the treasury bond futures market in the context of the monthly macroeconomic news cycle we advance and confirm the hypothesis that volatility and trading activity are higher in the first half of the month the data indicate that these patterns arise from at least two sources 1 a higher level of uncertainty regarding the value of news in announcements in the first half of the month and 2 improvement in efficiency of macroeconomic forecasts from the first to the second half of the month

price reversals bid ask spreads and market efficiency we examine the behavior of common stock prices after a large change in price occurs during a single trading day and find evidence that the stock market appears to have overreacted especially in the case of price declines however the magnitude of the overreaction is small compared to the bid ask spreads observed for the individual stocks in the sample we interpret this finding as being consistent with a market that is efficient after transactions costs are considered

jumps cojumps and macro announcements we use recently proposed tests to extract jumps and cojumps from three types of assets stock index futures bond futures and exchange rates we then characterize the dynamics of these discontinuities and informally relate them to us macroeconomic releases before using limited dependent variable models to formally model how news surprises explain co jumps nonfarm payroll and federal funds target announcements are the most important news across asset classes trade balance shocks are important for foreign exchange jumps we relate the size frequency and timing of jumps across asset classes to the likely sources of shocks and the relation of asset prices to fundamentals in the respective classes

asymmetric effects of federal funds target rate changes on s p100 stock returns volatilities and correlations we study the effects of fomc announcements of federal funds target rate decisions on individual stock returns volatilities and correlations at the intraday level for all three characteristics we find that the stock market responds differently to positive and negative target rate surprises first the average response to positive surprises that is bad news for stocks is larger second in case of bad news the mere occurrence of a surprise matters most whereas for good news its magnitude is more important these new insights are possible due to the use of high frequency intraday data

the impact of the u s employment report on exchange rates abstract the impact of the u s employment report and analyst forecasts of that report s major statistics on pound dollar yen dollar and euro dollar exchange rates are explored while the nonfarm payroll employment figure has the greatest impact we find that the exchange rates also react to the announced revision to last month s payroll figure and to the unemployment rate in all three markets the exchange rate response to the payroll employment figure is strongly conditioned on pre release analyst uncertainty the median analyst forecast from bloomberg anticipates over 80 of the monthly variation in the payroll figure and is basically unbiased the markets appear to respond to these analyst forecasts prior to the government release analyst forecast dispersion tends to increase following large forecast errors indicating that when the announced figure is far from what analysts expected they tend to disagree on the implications for future payroll levels

informativeness of trade size in foreign exchange markets this article investigates a trading strategy that relies on private information in an electronic spot foreign exchange market in a structural microstructure model extended for high frequency data our analysis links the informational content of trading activity to order size we find that large currency orders are likely to be placed by informed traders during increased price volatility episodes in addition the data suggest that excess kurtosis in exchange rate returns corresponding to large price contingent trades is significantly lower than that in small trades

the effects of inflation news on high frequency stock returns previous research using daily returns finds conflicting evidence about the relationship between unanticipated inflation news and stock returns we explore the relationship by looking at the response in minutes and trades of size based stock portfolios to unexpected changes in the regularly scheduled producer price index and consumer price index announcements in particular we answer the following three questions 1 do stocks respond to inflation news 2 what is the speed and path of that response 3 is the response stable or does it vary with the economy the direction of the news or time

are monetary policy reaction functions asymmetric the role of nonlinearity in the phillips curve abstract this paper investigates the implications of a nonlinear phillips curve for the derivation of optimal monetary policy rules combined with a quadratic loss function the optimal policy is also nonlinear with the policy maker increasing interest rates by a larger amount when inflation or output are above target than the amount it will reduce them when they are below target specifically the main prediction of our model is that such a source of nonlinearity leads to the inclusion of the interaction between expected inflation and the output gap in an otherwise linear taylor rule we find empirical support for this type of asymmetries in the interest rate setting behaviour of four european central banks but none for the us fed

the influence of fundamentals on exchange rates findings from analyses of news effects as we survey the literature of macroeconomic news in the foreign exchange market we can by now look back on nearly 30 years of research the first studies which analysed news effects on exchange rates were established in the early 1990s see for example dornbusch almost at the same time meese and rogoff published their influential paper revealing the forecasting inferiority in exchange rates of structural models against the random walk this finding has shocked the pillars of exchange rate economics and thus cast general suspicion on research focusing on fundamentals in this field the eventual rising popularity of event studies can partly be attributed to the re establishment of the raison d etre of exchange rate economics this work focuses on systematically surveying this literature with particular respect to its primary goal i e shedding light on the analytical value of fundamental research thus its major findings are first fundamental news does matter whereas non fundamental news matters to a lesser degree second news influences exchange rates via two separated channels i e incorporating common information into prices directly or indirectly based upon order flow third with a few exceptions the impact of fundamental news on exchange rates is fairly stable over time

the effects of macroeconomic news on high frequency exchange rate behavior this paper studies the high frequency reaction of the dem usd exchange rate to publicly announced macroeconomic information emanating from germany and the u s by us ing data sampled at a five minute frequency we are able to identify significant impacts of most announcements on the exchange rate change in the 15 minutes post announcement although the significance of these effects decreases rapidly as the interval over which the post announcement change in exchange rates is increased the direction of the exchange rate response conforms in general with a reaction function interpretation whereby reac tions to macroeconomic news are driven by the likely operations of monetary authorities in domestic money markets further we detect influences of german monetary policy deci sions on the reaction of the exchange rate and also differences between u s and german announcements in the exchange rate reaction time pattern i introduction this paper studies the high frequency reaction of the dem usd exchange rate to macroeconomic information emanating from germany and the u s specif ically we utilize exchange rate data covering the period 1 1 92 to 31 12 94 sam pled at a five minute frequency to investigate how the major monthly macroe conomic releases from these two countries impact the dem usd the infor mation contained in announcements over this three year period is extracted via a set of market expectation series supplied by money market services interna tional mms 1 our analysis improves on previous work in this area in two main respects first our study is conducted using very high frequency data whereas most earlier work has used exchange rate data sampled at a frequency of a number of hours or more this allows us to construct a very precise characterization of

monetary policy rules macroeconomic stability and inflation a view from the trenches i estimate a forward looking monetary policy reaction function for the federal reserve for the periods before and after paul volcker s appointment as chairman in 1979 using information that was available to the fomc in real time from 1966 to 1995 the results suggest broad similarities in policy and point to a forward looking approach to policy consistent with a strong reaction to inflation forecasts during both periods this contradicts the hypothesis based on analysis with ex post constructed data that the instability of the great inflation was the result of weak fomc policy responses to expected inflation a difference is that prior to volcker s appointment policy was too activist in reacting to perceived output gaps that retrospectively proved overambitious drawing on contemporaneous accounts of fomc policy i discuss the implications of the findings for alternative explanations of the great inflation and the improvement in macroeconomic stability since then

the intra day impact of communication on euro dollar volatility and jumps abstract in this paper we examine the intra day effects of verbal statements and comments on the fx market uncertainty using two measures continuous volatility and discontinuous jumps focusing on the euro dollar exchange rate we provide empirical evidence of how these two sources of uncertainty matter in measuring the short term reaction of exchange rates to communication events talks significantly trigger large jumps or extreme events for approximately an hour after the news release continuous volatility starts reacting prior to the news intensifies around the release time and stays at high levels for several hours our results suggest that monetary authorities generally tend to communicate with markets on days when uncertainty is relatively severe and higher than normal disentangling the us and euro area statements we also find that abnormal levels of volatility are mostly driven by the communication of the euro area officials rather than us authorities

price reversals bid ask errors or market overreaction abstract we show that bid ask errors in transaction prices are the predominant source of apparent price reversals in the short run for nasdaq firms once we extract measurement errors in prices caused by the bid ask spread we find little evidence of market overreaction on the contrary we find that security returns are positively and not negatively autocorrelated we also show that bid ask errors lead to substantial spurious volatility in transaction returns about half of measured daily return variances can be induced by the bid ask effect

intraday price reversals for index futures in the us and hong kong abstract we observe intraday price reversals following large price changes at the opening of the s p 500 futures market and the hsi futures market we note that the magnitude of subsequent price reversals is positively related to the initial price changes and that the price reversals are not caused by a bid ask spread or by panic among investors we also note that such price reversals can be exploited to give rise to profitable opportunities after transaction costs even though these may not be very significant this study shows that investor overreaction may be a universal phenomenon and irrational investor behavior like overreaction may also exist among groups of sophisticated investors

the inefficiency of reuters foreign exchange quotes abstract reuters foreign exchange fxfx page is the world wide predominant information source to foreign exchange traders in this study we compare the indicative spot exchange rate quotes from reuters with their matching futures exchange rates from the chicago mercantile exchange we find that the indicative quotes on reuters fxfx page are inefficient and could be improved by incorporating information from the futures market this casts doubt on the way banks determine these quotes as well as on the informational content of these quotes as an indicator of the current exchange rate

do macro economic news announcements affect the volatility of foreign exchange rates some evidence from australia this paper investigates the role of australian macro economic announcement news on five major australian dollar aud exchange rates specifically the daily changes of the exchange rates are modelled to ascertain the existence and the nature of the news effects in the conditional mean and variance of the changes it is found that a higher than expected current account deficit and unemployment rate announcements depreciated the aud and an unexpectedly higher gdp growth announcement appreciated it current account deficit cpi and unemployment news announcements significantly raised the conditional volatility of the changes of the aud on the days of their announcements except for the bp aud for the cpi news and there is some evidence of retail sales news reducing it in general the evidence is consistent with a view that a release of new information creates uncertainty in the markets due to a lack of consensus on the effects of the particular news announcement and the necessary course of action in add

news announcements and price discovery in foreign exchange spot and futures markets abstract this paper studies competition in price discovery between spot and futures rates for the eur usd and jpy usd markets around scheduled macroeconomic announcements using both the information shares approach and the common factor component weight approach for futures prices from the chicago mercantile exchange cme as well as deal prices from spot trading on the electronic broking services ebs we gauge how foreign exchange spot and futures markets respond to news surprises the results show that the spot rates provide more price discovery than do the cme futures rates overall however the contribution of the futures rates to price discovery increases in the time surrounding macroeconomic announcement releases

the episodic and unpredictable nature of imf lending an empirical analysis having had excess lending capacity at the beginning of 2008 by the end of the year international monetary fund imf lending had increased and in anticipation of a further increase in the demand for fund assistance arguments were being put forward for a substantial increase in imf resources analysis of imf lending over a protracted period of time reveals considerable volatility using both bivariate and multiple regression estimation this paper investigates the determinants of imf lending and examines the extent to which it is predictable although some significant relationships are discovered many of them are unstable and time variant this makes it difficult to predict imf lending with any degree of confidence the paper goes on to examine briefly the policy implications of unpredictability it is critical of the ways in which the problem has been handled in the past and it offers what it argues is a preferable solution

what defines news in foreign exchange markets abstract this paper examines whether the traditional sets of macro surprises that most of the literature considers are the only sorts of news that can explain exchange rate movements we examine the intra daily influence of a broad set of news reports including variables which are not typically considered fundamentals in the context of standard models of exchange rate determination and ask whether they too help predict exchange rate behavior we also examine whether news not only impacts exchange rates directly but also influences exchange rates via order flow signed trade volume our results indicate that along with the standard fundamentals both non fundamental news and order flow matter suggesting that future models of exchange rate determination ought to include all three types of explanatory variables

the central banker as a risk manager estimating the federal reserve s preferences under greenspan we derive a natural generalization of the taylor rule that links changes in the interest rate to the balance of the risks implied by the dual objective of sustainable economic growth and price stability this monetary policy rule reconciles economic models of expected utility maximization with the risk management approach to central banking within this framework we formally test and reject the standard assumption of quadratic and symmetric preferences in inflation and output that underlies the derivation of the taylor rule our results suggest that fed policy decisions under greenspan were better described in terms of the fed weighing upside and downside risks to their objectives rather than simply responding to the conditional mean of inflation and of the output gap

intradaily price volume adjustments of nyse stocks to unexpected earnings the speed and path of adjustment in stocks to the degree of earnings surprise in their quarterly announcements are studied using price volume transactions data a differential price adjustment process was observed with stocks having large positive earnings surprises experiencing a faster adjustment compared with those stocks with negative earnings surprises volume transaction frequency and size were found to be directly related to the absolute degree of surprise but very favorable earnings surprise stocks experienced initially a large number of smaller trades while stocks with large unfavorable earnings surprises had relatively fewer transactions but higher volume per trade the stock market s microstructure has received increasing attention from researchers especially from an empirical perspective as transaction data on prices and volume have become more readily available 1 an important subset of this research has been the study of stock price adjustments to significant news events specifically publicly announced information with economic content should be quickly reflected in prices in an unbiased manner this paper contains a study of the intradaily adjustment in stocks to the informational content of earnings reports using price changes trading volume and transaction frequency and size we examine the transaction to transaction and time series stock behavior associated with different degrees of earnings surprise embedded in earnings announcements the degree of surprise is measured by a comparison of actual with forecasted earnings for 325 new york stock exchange nyse firms these firms are subdivided into five earnings surprise categories in order to determine whether the speed and path of their price volume adjustment processes are different one question of interest is whether the adjustment process for favorable versus unfavorable earnings surprises is similar or different another is whether any adjustment is distinguished by a few large trades or a large number of smaller

stale information shocks and volatility we propose a new approach to measuring the effect of unobservable private information on volatility using intraday data we estimate the effect of a well identified shock on the volatility of stock returns of european banks as a function of the quality of public information available about the banks we hypothesize that as publicly available information becomes stale volatility effects and its persistence increase as private information of investors becomes more important we find strong support for this idea in the data we further show that stock volatility is higher just before important announcements if information is stale

the short run dynamics of the price adjustment to new information we examine how prices in interest rate and foreign exchange futures markets adjust to the new information contained in scheduled macroeconomic news releases in the very short run using 10 second returns and tick by tick data we find that prices adjust in a series of numerous small but rapid price changes that begin within 10 seconds of the news release and are basically completed within 40 seconds of the release there is some evidence that prices overreact in the first 40 seconds but that this is corrected in the second or third minute after the release while volatility tends to be higher than normal just before the news release there is no evidence of information leakage in our analysis we correct for the biases created by bid ask spreads and tick by tick data

intraday futures market behaviour around major scheduled macroeconomic announcements australian evidence abstract this paper examines intraday futures market behaviour around major scheduled macroeconomic information announcements on the sydney futures exchange sfe prior literature analysing intraday price behaviour around announcements is extended to trading volume and quoted bid ask spreads the analysis of price volatility trading volume and quoted bid ask spreads indicates that the majority of adjustment to new information occurs rapidly within 240 seconds of the scheduled time for major announcements with some evidence of abnormal activity prior to announcements analysis of quoted bid ask spreads suggests that they significantly widen in the 20 seconds prior to announcements and remain significantly wider for 30 seconds following announcements the increase in quoted spreads is related to both expected and unexpected volatility implying that market participants increase quoted spreads around information announcements as a consequence of adverse selection costs

modelling monetary policy inflation targeting in practice this paper estimates a simple structural model of monetary policy in the uk focusing on the policy of inflation targeting introduced in 1992 we find that i the adoption of inflation targeting led to significant changes in monetary policy ii post 1992 monetary policy is asymmetric as policy makers respond more to upward deviation of inflation away from the target iii post 1992 policy makers may be attempting to keep inflation within the 1 4 2 6 range rather than pursuing a point target of 2 5 and iv the response of monetary policy to inflation is nonlinear as interest rates respond more when inflation is further from the target

response of hourly stock prices and trading volume to economic news this paper examines hourly stock returns and trading volume response to announcements about the money supply consumer price index cpi producer price index industrial production and the unemployment rate the empirical results indicate that surprises in announcements about money supply and cpi are significantly associated with stock price changes the announcements of the other three variables do not affect stock prices significantly trading volume is not affected by any of the five economic variable announcements indicating that market participants do not differ substanti ally in the interpretations of the effects of announcements the spee d of adjustment analysis indicates that the effect of information on stock prices is reflected in a short period of one hour or so copyright 1988 by the university of chicago

analysis of the intraday effects of economic releases on the currency market abstract using four years of second by second executed trade data we study the intraday effects of a representative group of scheduled economic releases on three exchange rates eur usd jpy usd and gbp usd using wavelets to analyze volatility behavior we empirically show that intraday volatility clusters increase as we approach the time of the releases and decay exponentially after the releases moreover we compare our results with the results of a poll that we conducted of economists and traders finally we propose a wavelet volatility estimator which is not only more efficient than a range estimator that is commonly used in empirical studies but also captures the market dynamics as accurately as a range estimator our approach has practical value in high frequency algorithmic trading as well as electronic market making

monetary policy rules based on real time data this paper examines the magnitude of informational problems associated with the implementation and interpretation of simple monetary policy rules using taylor s rule as an example i demonstrate that real time policy recommendations differ considerably from those obtained with ex post revised data further estimated policy reaction functions based on ex post revised data provide misleading descriptions of historical policy and obscure the behavior suggested by information available to the federal reserve in real time these results indicate that reliance on the information actually available to policy makers in real time is essential for the analysis of monetary policy rules

how markets process information news releases and volatility we examine the impact of scheduled macroeconomic news announcements on interest rate and foreign exchange futures markets we find these announcements are responsible for most of the observed time of day and day of the week volatility patterns in these markets while the bulk of the price adjustment to a major announcement occurs within the first minute volatility remains substantially higher than normal for roughly fifteen minutes and slightly elevated for several hours nonetheless these subsequent price adjustments are basically independent of the first minute s return we identify those announcements with the greatest impact on these markets we examine the impact on interest rate and foreign exchange markets of scheduled macroeconomic news releases such as the employment report the consumer price index cpi and the producer price index ppi many market participants believe that such announcements have a major impact on financial markets indeed a small industry devoted to predicting the figures to be released in upcoming releases has evolved in recent years with the exception of the weekly money supply figures however the impact of such announcements on financial markets has received scant attention 1 this is doubly surprising given the considerable research interest in market volatility since these news releases are a potential source of much of this volatility consider for instance figure 1 as shown there prices in interest rate and foreign exchange futures markets are much more volatile between 8 30 and 8 35 a m eastern time et than during any other five minute trading period including

intraday market effects in electronic soybean futures market during non trading and trading hour announcements abstractthis article investigates market reactions to major united states department of agriculture announcements during non trading and trading hours in the soybean futures market using microstruc

shock effects on stocks bonds and exchange rates abstract tick data and newswire searches are used to find events that led to large and rapid price changes in a stock future a bond future and three exchange rate futures knowledge of these events may be useful in future work they have the advantages that they are truly surprises and that the sign of their effect on each financial instrument is known the events are used in this study to analyze the effects of three types of events monetary price and real on the five instruments

intraday effects of foreign exchange intervention by the bank of japan abstract we examine the effects of intervention by the bank of japan using intraday data from oct 1 1992 to sept 30 1993 news related to the bank of japan s intervention in the jpy market was retrieved from reuters headlines we find that jpy volatility varies significantly differently across periods from 1 h before to 1 h after reuters intervention reports results from arch models show that intervention by the bank of japan has a positive and significant impact on jpy volatility particularly at high frequencies 5 and 10 min intervals we also find that our intervention proxy has the largest effect upon high frequency volatility 30 to 45 min prior to reuters reports

execution costs and their intraday variation in futures markets we consider trading costs in the transparent competitive open outcry markets of the chicago mercantile exchange cme in which market makers have no affirmative obligation to trade we document that while cme spreads are similar in magnitude to those in other markets realized spreads are often negative a plausible explanation is that cme market makers are able to employ more complex trading strategies than their equity market counterparts because they are not bound by affirmative obligation the evidence suggests that market transparency and market maker obligations are important determinants of intraday variation in trading costs copyright 2001 by university of chicago press

policy regime changes judgment and taylor rules in the greenspan era this paper investigates policy deviations from linear taylor rules motivated by the risk management approach followed by the fed during the greenspan era we estimate a nonlinear monetary policy rule via a logistic smoothing transition regression model where policy makers judgment proxied by economically meaningful variables drives the transition across policy regimes we find that ignoring judgment induced nonlinearities while estimating taylor rules has remarkable costs in terms of fit above 250 bps in 10 quarters although linear taylor rules describe well the broad contours of monetary policy they fail to detect relevant policy decisions driven by policy makers judgment

how the equity market responds to unanticipated events we examine the market reaction of prices volume spreads and trading location when firms experience events that are totally unanticipated by the equity market in terms of both timing and content we find that the response time is longer than previous studies have reported selling pressure wider spreads and higher volume remain significant for over an hour we also find an immediate price reaction for overnight events however the market takes longer to react to events that occur when it is open these findings may shed light on the efficacy of trading halts

inflation targeting some extensions previous analyses of the implementation of inflation targeting are extended to monetary policy responses to different shocks consequences of model uncertainty and effects of interest rate smoothing and stabilization model uncertainty output stabilization and interest rate stabilization or smoothing all call for a more gradual adjustment of the conditional inflation forecast toward the inflation target the conditional inflation forecast is the natural intermediate target during inflation targeting the optimal way of reacting to shocks is hence to check how they affect the inflation forecast and then take the appropriate action jel classification e42 e52 e58

bad news and dow jones make the spanish stocks go round this paper is a data based attempt to analyse what kind of information basically affects close to open returns open to close returns volatility and volume in actively traded individual securities on the spanish stock market specifically we are interested in detecting how these variables react to specific pieces of news considered as exogenous information however as volume itself could be interpreted as a proxy of the information flow we first apply the linear and nonlinear granger causality tests from volume to return and to volatility we do not find evidence supporting this latter hypothesis furthermore we only find significant evidence of linear causality from volume to volatility the other major finding is that both bad news and the dow jones play a significant informational role in explaining price changes and volatility as a consequence of these findings we also test the residual role of volume as a proxy for noise liquidity trading after filtering for news although we do not find evidence in favour of this argument

the nairu unemployment and monetary policy this paper examines the precision of conventional estimates of the nairu and the role of the nairu and unemployment in forecasting inflation the authors find that although there is a clear empirical phillips relation the nairu is imprecisely estimated forecasts of inflation are insensitive to the nairu and there are other leading indicators of inflation that are at least as good as unemployment this suggests deemphasizing the nairu in public discourse about monetary policy and instead drawing on a richer variety of leading indicators of inflation

the determinants of future u s monetary policy high frequency evidence this paper examines the determinants of future u s monetary policy by studying the relationship between a predictor of the future direction of monetary policy and a pertinent information set specifically we investigate the impact of the surprise component of an array of macro economic announcements upon federal funds futures rates this investigation is conducted using high frequency intraday data in order to examine the exact timing of rate reactions to announcements in doing this we find that non farm payrolls and civilian unemployment announcements play a dominant role in determining future monetary policy moreover we document evidence that shows that the release of such information is rapidly incorporated into rates particularly when considering federal funds futures contracts traded via an electronic trading platform as opposed to an open auction trading platform

intraday price reversals in the us stock index futures market a 15 year study this paper gives a long term assessment of intraday price reversals in the us stock index futures market following large price changes at the market open we find highly significant intraday price reversals over a 15 year period november 1987 september 2002 as well as significant intraday reversals in our yearly and day of the week investigations moreover the strength of the intraday overreaction phenomenon seems more pronounced following large positive price changes at the market open that being said the question of whether a trader can consistently profit from this information remains open as the significance of intraday price reversals is sharply reduced when gross trading results are adjusted by a bid ask proxy for transactions costs

taylor rules with real time data a tale of two countries and one exchange rate abstract using real time data that reflects information available to monetary authorities at the time they are formulating policy we find that estimated taylor rules based on revised and real time data differ more for germany than for the u s taylor rules using real time data suggest differences between u s and german monetary policies and taylor rules for the u s using inflation forecasts are nearly identical to those using lagged inflation rates evidence of out of sample predictability for the dollar mark nominal exchange rate with forecasts based on taylor rule fundamentals is only found with real time data and does not increase if inflation forecasts are used

wall street s bailout bet market reactions to house price releases in the presence of bailout expectations abstract the rise and subsequent collapse of us house prices was one of the factors underlying the recent financial crisis one could expect that the crisis brought increased attention to the housing market and thus led to stronger market reactions to house price news we find that reactions indeed change but with a peculiar twist from september 2008 on good news from the housing market are associated with falling us stock prices and vice versa the likely explanation for which we provide cross sectional evidence is that falling house prices increased the market s trust in a government bailout thereby increasing market valuations of firms that were expected to benefit from government rescue measures

conducting monetary policy at very low short term interest rates can monetary policy committees accustomed to describing their plans and actions in terms of the level of a short term nominal interest rate find effective means of conducting and communicating their policies when that rate is zero or close to zero the very low levels of interest rates in japan switzerland and the united states in recent years have stimulated much interesting research on this question and have led some central banks to make changes in their operating procedures and communications strategies in this paper we will give a brief overview of current thinking on the conduct of monetary policy when short term interest rates are very low or even zero monetary policy works for the most part by influencing the prices and yields of financial assets which in turn affect economic decisions and thus the evolution of the economy when the short term policy rate is at or near zero the conventional means of effecting monetary ease lowering the target for the policy rate is no longer feasible however it would be a mistake to think that monetary policy was impotent we discuss three strategies for stimulating the economy at an unchanged level of the policy rate these involve i providing assurance to investors that short rates will be kept lower in the future than they currently expect ii changing the relative supplies of securities in the marketplace by altering the composition of the central bank s balance sheet and iii increasing the size of the central bank s balance sheet beyond the level needed to set the short term policy rate at zero quantitative easing we also discuss the costs and benefits of very low interest rates an issue that bears on the question of whether the central bank should take the policy rate all the way to zero before undertaking alternative policies

on the optimal monetary policy response to noisy indicators abstract we describe a behavior of a central bank when its measures of current inflation and output are subject to measurement errors in a framework of optimizing models with nominal price stickiness in our model a central bank sets the interest rate equal to its current estimate of the so called wicksellian natural rate of interest this is shown to imply that the interest rate responds to the central bank s estimates of both current inflation and output gap as advocated by taylor 1993 it is also shown that the noise contained in the indicators justifies a degree of policy cautiousness a reduced form representation of optimal policy should exhibit interest rate smoothing which is often found in the empirical literature on monetary policy reaction functions

estimating central banks preferences from a time varying empirical reaction function abstract we estimate monetary policy reaction functions for the united states the united kingdom and germany using a markov switching model that allows for shifts in the coefficients of the central bank s reaction function as well as for independent shifts in the residual variance the results indicate that central bank policy can be characterized as falling into a low and a high inflation regime over time all central banks have assigned changing weights to inflation and the output gap switching in the residual variance turns out to be important for the fit of the model as a reaction function is a reduced form coefficients embody preference parameters as well as parameters characterizing the structure of the economy to recover the central banks preferences we estimate the preference parameters jointly with a small model of the economy the results show that the bundesbank has placed a relatively higher weight on inflation than the fed moreover for the bundesbank and the fed the differences between both regimes seem to originate mainly from a changing preference for interest rate smoothing

market set up in advance of federal reserve policy rate decisions textabstractthis paper considers the uncertainty associated with upcoming federal open market committee fomc announcements and the extent to which participants in the fed funds futures market prepare for such announcements before they actually occur we demonstrate that markets set up well in advance of known announcement days going back as far as six months prior to an fomc meeting as a result there is often less variation in fed funds futures prices in the period immediately preceding an fomc announcement despite greater volume of activity as the market has already incorpo rated anticipated signals we find that macro announcements and central bank officials speeches and congressional testimony are of comparable importance in addition while macro announcements have stronger effects when they are released during the fed s blackout period congressional testimony is more important when it coincides with days when important macro variables are released

the nonlinear phillips curve and inflation forecast targeting symmetric versus asymmetric monetary policy rules we study a simple small dynamic economy that a policymaker is attempting to control via use of a monetary policy rule the model features a convex phillips curve in that positive deviations of aggregate demand from potential are more inflationary than negative deviations are disinflationary using dynamic optimization techniques we find that the form of the optimal monetary policy reaction function is asymmetric we show that in the optimal rule the interest rate is a nonlinear function of the deviation of inflation from its target and of output from potential with asymmetry optimal monetary policy becomes more active as uncertainty about the impact of policy increases we thus provide an important and novel theoretical reason why increased uncertainty can lead to more aggressive rather than toward more cautious optimal policies

nonlinearity in the fed s monetary policy rule this paper investigates the nature of nonlinearities in the monetary policy rule of the us fed using the flexible approach of hamilton 2001a we find that while there is significant evidence of nonlinearity for the period to 1979 there is little such evidence for the subsequent period possible asymmetries in the fed s reactions to inflation deviations from target and the output gap in the 1960s and 70s may tell part of the story but do not capture the entire nature of the nonlinearity the inclusion of the interaction between inflation deviations and the output gap as recently proposed appears to characterize the nonlinear policy rule more adequately

the exchange rate effects of macro news after the global financial crisis abstract we explore whether the exchange rate effects of macro news are time and state dependent by analyzing and comparing the relative influence of us and japanese macro news on the jpy usd rate before during and after the global financial crisis a comprehensive set totaling 40 time stamped us and japanese news variables and preceding survey expectations along with 5 min indicative jpy usd quotes spanning the 1 january 1999 to 31 august 2016 period facilitate our analysis our results suggest that while us macro news are now more important than before the crisis the influence of japanese macro news has waned to the point of near irrelevance these findings are of particular importance to exchange rate modeling of the new era

differential and more favorable treatment of developing countries and the international trading system this article argues that differential and more favourable treatment of developing countries in the general agreement on tariffs and trade gatt has been a logical consequence of their own inward looking policies and the gatt s implicit mercantilism the latter implying that liberalization being costly should not be demanded of relatively poor countries time has however reduced both the appeal of the protectionist model of development and the willingness of developed countries to accord differential treatment the upshot has been pressure on more advanced developing countries to graduate and a growing literature recommending fuller and more equal participation of developing countries in the gatt the case for fuller and more equal participation is not self evident it needs to be assessed on its merits in terms of the prospects for improved market access abroad and more efficient policy at home the analysis indicates that the potential benefits should not be oversold on balance however the most advanced developing countries would probably gain from active and more equal participation in both gatt and the multilateral trade negotiations while the remaining developing countries would benefit from graduation by the more advanced iv contracting parties agree that the principle of differential and more favourable treatment embodied in part iv and other relevant provisions of the general agreement and in the decision of contracting parties of november 28 1979 on differential and more favourable treatment reciprocity and fuller participation of developing countries applies to the negotiations in the implementation of standstill and rollback particular care should be given to avoiding disruptive effects to the trade of less developed contracting parties v the developed countries do not expect reciprocity for commitments made by them in trade negotiations to reduce or remove tariffs and other martin wolf is director of studies at the trade policy research centre london the views expressed do not represent those of the staff and council of the trade policy research centre and result partially from a research program on the participation of the developing countries in the international trading system particularly important are two papers prepared under the program by hudec forthcoming and riedel forthcoming the issues addressed in this article have also been considered in a previous paper by the author 1984 pp 201 29 the author is grateful to participants at the bangkok conference for their comments and especially to jagdish n bhagwati muchkund dubey anthony lane and vincent cable copyright 1987 by the international bank for reconstruction and development the world bank

term structure evidence on interest rate smoothing and monetary policy inertia abstract numerous studies have used quarterly data to estimate monetary policy rules or reaction functions that appear to exhibit a very slow partial adjustment of the policy interest rate the conventional wisdom asserts that this gradual adjustment reflects a policy inertia or interest rate smoothing behavior by central banks however such quarterly monetary policy inertia would imply a large amount of forecastable variation in interest rates at horizons of more than 3 months which is contradicted by evidence from the term structure of interest rates the illusion of monetary policy inertia evident in the estimated policy rules likely reflects the persistent shocks that central banks face

non discriminatory discrimination special and differential treatment under the gatt for developing countries developing countries have long been strong supporters of a non discriminatory rule based multilateral system on the grounds that as economically small units they would otherwise be subject to bilateral pressure from larger powers at the same time they have equally been committed to special and differential s d treatment for themselves under gatt rules their approach has been to argue that trade problems of developing countries are special from those of developed countries balance of payments problems viewed by them as endemic to low income countries make liberalisation difficult and import substitution strategies suggest that liberalisation is anyway undesirable poor export prospects export pessimism imply they need different treatment from developed countries in order to grow that is trade preferences in developed country markets special and differential also became a bloc wide strategy jointly pursued reflecting the premise that developing countries are jointly and simultaneously special and differential in their trade problems this is however changing in the uruguay round developing countries have shown themselves remarkably adept at moving away from the earlier somewhat passive bloc wide s d approach in a surprising range of negotiating groups countries have actively pursued country over bloc wide interests and in an active way involving a willingness to take on new gatt disciplines while s d is far from having been abandoned as a principle of the trading system the approach seems to be one of protecting and preserving what is there rather than pushing for further enhancement the reasons for these changes are as always multi faceted strong growth performance in the more outward oriented developing countries korea and other nics has weakened the intellectual commitment to import substitution what exactly s d has yielded developing countries in concrete trade policy terms has also been queried and over the years the differences between developing countries large small middle income least developed industrialised commodity exports agricultural importers exporters and others have grown to the point that in the uruguay round a grand coalition of all developing countries does not exist in any active sense

regional banking instability and fomc voting abstract this study analyzes if regionally affiliated federal open market committee fomc members take their districts regional banking sector instability into account when they vote considering the period 1979 2010 we find that a deterioration in a district s bank health increases the probability that this district s representative in the fomc votes to ease interest rates according to member specific characteristics the effect of regional banking sector instability on fomc voting behavior is most pronounced for bank presidents as opposed to governors and fomc members who have career backgrounds in the financial industry or who represent a district with a large banking sector

the reaction of asset markets to swiss national bank communication abstract in this paper we analyze high frequency movements in swiss asset markets in reaction to real time communication by the swiss national bank our analysis of central bank communication encompasses monetary policy announcements speeches and interviews we examine the reactions of the currency market the bond market and the stock exchange the evidence suggests that speeches and interviews along with monetary policy announcements engender a significant price reaction this paper sheds light on the relevance of communications other than monetary policy announcements

implications of the discreteness of observed stock prices stock prices on the organized exchanges are restricted to be divisible by 1 8 therefore the true price usually differs from the observed price this paper examines the biases resulting from the discreteness of observed stock prices it is shown that the natural estimators of the variance and all of the higher order moments of the rate of returns are biased an approximate set of correction factors is derived and a procedure is outlined to show how the correction can be made the natural estimators of the beta and of the variance of the market portfolio on the other hand are nearly unbiased the behavior of stock prices has been an issue of interest to the financial economist for many years this interest resulted in a growing number of empirical studies which attempt to estimate this behavior e g blattberg and gonedes 2 fama 6 fama and roll 7 8 barnea and downes 1 to date stock price behavior is estimated under the assumption that the observed trading price is the true equilibrium price however observed stock prices and stock price changes on the organized exchanges are restricted to multiples of 1 8 of a dollar 1 therefore if the true distribution of stock prices is continuous an observed trading price can be different from the true price this paper examines the biases in estimating the moments of stock price changes caused by the discreteness of observed stock prices the major focus of the paper is in noting this problem providing a model which explains the source of these biases and quantifying their size section i demonstrates that due to the discrete nature of observed stock prices the natural estimators for the variance and for the higher order moments of the rate of returns are biased upward this bias is larger for stocks with lower prices and smaller standard deviation for instance assuming that the standard deviation a is 0 001 the stock price is one dollar the true probability distribution of stock prices is lognormal and the observed prices are as close as possible to the true prices then the natural estimator of r has expectation 0 01400 hence it is biased upward by 1300 significant biases have important implications in option pricing we derive an approximate set of correction factors which can be applied to the

monetary policy with uncertain parameters this thesis contains four chapters each of which examines different aspects of the uncertainty facing monetary policymakers monetary policy and market interest rates investigates how interest rates set on financial markets respond to policy actions taken by the monetary authorities the reaction of market rates is shown to depend crucially on market participants interpretation of the factors underlying the policy move these theoretical predictions find support in an empirical analysis of the u s financial markets predicting monetary policy using federal funds futures prices examines how prices of federal funds futures contracts can be used to predict policy moves by the federal reserve although the futures prices exhibit systematic variation across trading days and calendar months they are shown to be fairly successful in predicting the federal funds rate target that will prevailafter the next meeting of the federal open market committee from 1994 to 1998 monetary policy with uncertain parameters examines the effects of parameter uncertainty on the optimal monetary policy strategy under certain parameter configurations increasing uncertainty is shown to lead to more aggressive policy in contrast to the accepted wisdom should central banks be more aggressive examines why a certain class of monetary policy models leads to more aggressive policy prescriptions than what is observed in reality these counterfactual results are shown to be due to model restrictions rather than central banks being too cautious in their policy behavior an unrestricted model taking the dynamics of the economy and multiplicative parameter uncertainty into account leads to optimal policy prescriptions which are very close to observed federal reserve behavior

is the fed too timid monetary policy in an uncertain world estimates of the taylor rule using historical data from the past decade or two suggest that monetary policy in the u s can be characterized as having reacted in a moderate fashion to output and in

robust optimal policy in a forward looking model with parameter and shock uncertainty this paper characterizes a robust optimal policy rule in a simple forward looking model when the policymaker faces uncertainty about model parameters and shock processes we show that the robust optimal policy rule is likely to involve a stronger response of the interest rate to fluctuations in inflation and the output gap than is the case in the absence of uncertainty thus parameter uncertainty alone does not necessarily justify a small response of monetary policy to perturbations however uncertainty may amplify the degree of super inertia required by optimal monetary policy we finally discuss the sensitivity of the results to alternative assumptions copyright 2007 john wiley sons ltd

information content and the speed of stock price adjustment the process by which security prices adjust to the release of new information is an area of study which has received much attention in accounting and finance in finance the main interest has been whether prices adjust in a rapid and unbiased manner to new information in accounting the focus has been more on whether different accounting disclosures have information content the study reported here combined both interests in that we investigated the speed of adjustment of releases of information which had different degrees of information content as illustrations dann mayers and rabb 1977 tested the sensitivity of a block trade trading rule to the speed of price adjustments this rule first suggested by grier and albin 1973 is based on the assumption that abnormal returns can be earned by purchasing shares at the block price and selling at that day s closing price dann mayers and rabb hereafter dmr found that unless one could purchase the stock within five minutes of the block trade the profitability of the grier and albin rule was seriously impaired they also found the market price to be an unbiased estimate of the closing price within 15 minutes of the block trade similarly hillmer and yu 1979 devised an alternative test for the speed of price adjustment based on a cumulative sum technique they illustrated the technique by testing for shifts in the parameters of the distributions of price changes and of transaction frequencies around five information events two earnings announcements and three defense

the creation and resolution of market uncertainty the impact of information releases on implied volatility we model and examine the impact of information releases on market uncertainty as mea sured by the implied standard deviation isd from option markets distinguishing between scheduled and unscheduled announcements we hypothesize that since the timing although not the content of scheduled announcements is known a priori the pre release isd will impound the anticipated impact of important releases on price volatility and that the isd will normally decline post release as this uncertainty is resolved conversely we hypothesize that the unexpected high volatility caused by major unscheduled releases will cause market participants to adjust upward their estimates of likely volatility over the remaining life of the option resulting in an increase in the isd our evidence supports both hypotheses the isds that we consider are from the t bond eurodollar and deutschemark options markets we examine scheduled macroeconomic news releases such as the employment report and the ppi we also find that the observed tendency for the isd to fall on fridays and rise on mondays is due to the weekday pattern of scheduled news releases

risk management nonlinearity and aggressiveness in monetary policy the case of the us fed we contribute to the empirical literature on the risk management approach to monetary policy by estimating regime switching models where the strength of the response of monetary policy to macroeconomic conditions depends on the level of risk associated with the inflation outlook and risk in financial markets using quarterly data for the greenspan period we find that i risk in the inflation outlook and in financial markets are a more powerful driver of monetary policy regime changes than variables typically suggested in the literature such as the level of inflation and the output gap ii estimation of regime switching models shows that the response of the us fed to the inflation outlook is invariant across policy regimes iii however in periods of high economic risk monetary policy tends to respond more aggressively to the output gap and the degree of inertia tends to be lower than in normal circumstances and iv the us fed is estimated to have responded aggressively to the output gap in the late 1980s and beginning of the 1990s and in the late 1990s and early 2000s these results are consistent with mishkin 2008 s view that in periods of high economic risk monetary authorities should respond aggressively to changes in macroeconomic conditions while the degree of inertia should be lower than in normal circumstances

monetary policy uncertainty and the market reaction to macroeconomic news abstract we examine whether monetary policy uncertainty influences the reaction of the equity treasury security foreign exchange and crude oil markets as well as medium term interest rates to u s macroeconomic announcements using intraday futures data we show that in the presence of higher policy uncertainty the response to macroeconomic news weakens in the stock and crude oil markets and strengthens in the treasury interest rate and foreign exchange markets in times of elevated monetary policy uncertainty macroeconomic announcements impact the financial and crude oil markets to a large extent through expectations of future monetary policy

estimating the volatility of discrete stock prices this paper introduces an estimator of stock price volatility that eliminates at least asymptotically the biases that are caused by the discreteness of observed stock prices assuming that the observed stock prices are continuously monitored an estimator is constructed using the notion of how quickly the price changes rather than how much the price changes it is shown that this estimator has desirable asymptotic properties including consistency and asymptotic normality also through a simulation study the authors show that it outperforms natural estimators for the low and middle priced stocks furthermore the simulation study demonstrates that the proposed estimator is robust to certain misspecifications in measuring the time between price changes

is bad news cause of asymmetric volatility response a note this article uses a direct test of the impact of economic news on stock volatility the main interest is to test whether the asymmetric response of volatility can be due to the effect of bad news to do this this study takes items of news into account as exogenous variables the analysis is divided into two stages each of which uses different items of news as exogenous variables additional to the information provided by the residuals the first stage uses more exhaustively classified information whereas the second considers daily information as a global sign this study finds that bad news is responsible for most of the observed asymmetric behaviour of variance further this study detects that the gjr model adequately captures the impact of bad news when traders are not ready to carry out a time consuming analysis of the information

risk management driven policy rate gap abstract we employ real time data available to the us monetary policy makers to estimate a taylor rule augmented with a measure of financial uncertainty over the period 1969 2008 we find evidence in favor of a systematic response to financial uncertainty over and above that to expected inflation output gap and output growth however this evidence regards the greenspan bernanke period only focusing on this period the risk management approach is found to be responsible for monetary policy easings for up to 75 basis points of the federal funds rate

price discovery in illiquid markets do financial asset prices rise faster than they fall we study price discovery in municipal bonds an important otc market as in markets for consumer goods prices rise faster than they fall round trip profits to dealers on retail trades increase in rising markets but do not decrease in falling markets further effective half spreads increase or decrease more when movements in fundamentals favor dealers yield spreads relative to treasuries also adjust with asymmetric speed in rising and falling markets finally intraday price dispersion is asymmetric in rising and falling markets as consumer search theory would predict in a wide variety of consumer markets prices for retail goods rise faster than they fall 1 this asymmetric price adjustment referred to as rockets and feathers is generally understood by economists to be inconsistent with perfect competition between sellers sellers appear to exploit local market power due to the search frictions that their customers face we document asymmetric price adjustment in a major over the counter otc financial market using a comprehensive sample of all trades in municipal bonds over a 5 year period we provide evidence that the asymmetric price adjustment is associated with opportunistic timing by the broker dealers who intermediate trades in the market movements in fundamentals that increase spreads earned by broker dealers are reflected quickly in prices while prices respond more slowly to changes that reduce their spreads further the asymmetries are more pronounced in states where tax treatment of the bonds would induce market segmentation we also document asymmetries in withinday price dispersion as implied by theoretical models of rockets and feathers price adjustments based on costly consumer search and learning

price drift before u s macroeconomic news private information about public announcements we examine the price behavior of stock index and treasury futures around the release of u s macroeconomic announcements seven out of 18 market moving announcements show evidence of informed trading before the ocial release time for these announcements prices begin to drift in the correct direction about 30 minutes before the announcement time the pre announcement drift accounts on average for about half of the total price adjustment we consider two explanations for this preannouncement drift information leakage and superior forecasting release procedures that may aect information leakage vary greatly across organizations we nd some evidence of predictability of announcement surprises based on reprocessing of public information and on private data collection which might explain the drift