the global financial crisis explaining cross country differences in the output impact abstract what explains differences in the crisis impact across developing countries and emerging markets using cross country regressions to assess the factors driving the growth performance in 2009 compared to pre crisis forecasts for that year we find that a small set of variables explain a large share of the variation in the growth impact countries with more leveraged domestic financial systems stronger credit growth and more short term debt tended to suffer a larger effect on economic activity although the relative importance of these factors differs across country groups for emerging markets this financial channel trumps the trade channel for a broader set of developing countries however the trade channel seems to have mattered with more open countries affected more strongly and those exporting food commodities being less hard hit exchange rate flexibility helped in buffering the impact of the shock particularly for emerging markets there is also some evidence that countries with a stronger fiscal position prior to the crisis were impacted less severely we find little evidence for the importance of other policy variables

external liabilities and crises abstract we examine the determinants of external crises focusing on the role of foreign liabilities and their composition using a variety of statistical tools and comprehensive data spanning 1970 2011 we find that the ratio of net foreign liabilities to gdp is a significant crisis predictor this is primarily due to the net position in debt instruments the effect of net equity liabilities is weaker and net fdi liabilities seem if anything an offset factor we also find that i breaking down net external debt into its gross asset and liability counterparts does not add significant explanatory power to crisis prediction ii the current account is a powerful predictor iii foreign exchange reserves reduce the likelihood of crisis more than other foreign asset holdings and iv a parsimonious probit containing those and a handful of other variables has good predictive performance in and out of sample the latter result stems largely from our focus on external crises sensu stricto

inconsistent preferences in environmental protection investment and the central government s optimal policy environmental protection plans cannot succeed without full cooperation among related units however inconsistent investment preferences toward environmental protection increase the damage to the environment this article employs the contract mechanism to analyse environmental protection effects when the central government directly subsidizes the local governments the results reveal that subsidies from the central government are not only unable to solve the problem of the inconsistent investment preferences among the central and local governments but also induce the free riding behaviour of local governments because of the free riding behaviour of the local governments there is no such equilibrium in which the central government prefers the sequential investment mode while the local governments prefer the simultaneous investment mode

measuring and assessing capacity utilization in the manufacturing sectors of nine oecd countries following a tradition established by cassels klein and hickman we employ the economic theory of cost and production and define economic capacity output as that output at which short and long run average total cost curves are tangent to one another capacity utilization cu rates are then computed as the ratio of actual to capacity output we implement this framework empirically by specifying and estimating a translog variable cost function for the manufacturing sectors of nine oecd countries we find that by the end of the historical sample the early 1980s pervasive and chronic excess capacity exists while the average cost consequence of excess capacity was relatively modest in the 1960s the burden increased considerably after opec i and after opec ii the premium was as large as 15 of average total costs we also find that electricity and fuel price increases had small impacts on capacity output relative to that from labor or capital finally we adjust conventional measures of multifactor productivity growth for changes in cu and find that the adjusted growth is larger after 1973 than that based on traditional procedures

capital markets and the exchange rate with special reference to the dollarization debate in latin america the paper reviews the main challenges faced by policymakers in emerging market economies em in light of recent financial crises and taking into account salient factors like the existence of partial dollarization imperfect credibility weak financial systems and contagion the standard theory of optimal currency areas is discussed and criticized for omitting the above factors when these factors are taken into account an extreme foreign exchange regime like dollarization is shown to become much more attractive the paper discusses the pros and cons of dollarization and among other things shows that the lack of a lender of last resort is not necessarily a major drawback in em the paper also discusses inflation targeting it in a formal model it is shown that it could be subject to credibility problems similar to those found in exchange rate based stabilization programs

did foreign exchange holding influence growth performance during the global financial crisis in a context of increased foreign exchange reserves holding from emerging and developing countries this paper investigates the diminishing return of reserves holding assumption over the most severe phase of the global financial crisis 2008q1 2010q4 relying on a panel smooth transition regression model we highlight the differential effect of the accumulation of foreign exchange reserves for a set of financial vulnerabilities variables specifically while reserve accumulation is effective above a critical threshold to cope with vulnerabilities related to the financial channel we show that it becomes less effective beyond a certain threshold for domestic bank vulnerabilities

exchange rate based stabilization with endogenous fiscal response abstract this paper studies the dynamics of inconsistent exchange rate based stabilization policy a policy that fixes the exchange rate without an underlying fiscal adjustment to ensure that the exchange rate policy is sustainable in the long run in a model where the perception that exchange rate policy temporarily leads to an initial expansion in consumption that generates an increase in tax revenues large enough to eliminate the ex ante fiscal deficit therefore an ex ante inconsistent stabilization program displays ex post all the features of a fiscally consistent one i e a fixed exchange rate and no fiscal deficit in contrast to the standard results where the inconsistency between fiscal and exchange rate policy leads to a steady loss of international reserves and culminates in a krugman type balance of payments crisis this model predicts that along the path towards the balance of payments crisis the economy displays no fiscal deficit and enjoys increasing international reserves

exchange rate based stabilizations a literature review the exchange rate based stabilizations erbss that have been undertaken in chronic inflation countries have generated a controversial body of literature regarding the effects of disinflation programs especially those on real consumption and output this survey provides an extensive overview of the literature on erbs the paper covers various empirical studies that have attempted to document the macroeconomic regularities associated with erbs discussing both their strengths and their weaknesses it analyzes diverse theoretical models that have been put forward to replicate the business cycles associated with erbs and sheds light on which models perform better using real data the results suggest that durables incorporated weak credibility and sticky price model proves to be most compatible with the empirical regularities observed in the course of erbs

can leading indicators assess country vulnerability evidence from the 2008 09 global financial crisis abstract we investigate whether leading indicators can help explain the cross country incidence of the 2008 09 financial crisis rather than looking for indicators with specific relevance to the recent crisis the selection of variables is driven by an extensive review of more than eighty papers from the previous literature on early warning indicators our motivation is to address suspicions that indicators found to be useful predictors in one round of crises are typically not useful to predict the next round the review suggests that central bank reserves and past movements in the real exchange rate were the two leading indicators that had proven the most useful in explaining crisis incidence across different countries and episodes in the past for the 2008 09 crisis we use six different variables to measure crisis incidence drops in gdp and industrial production currency depreciation stock market performance reserve losses and participation in an imf program we find that the level of reserves in 2007 appears as a consistent and statistically significant leading indicator of who got hit by the 2008 09 crisis in line with the conclusions of the pre 2008 literature in addition to reserves recent real appreciation is a statistically significant predictor of devaluation and of a measure of exchange market pressure during the current crisis we define the period of the global financial shock as running from late 2008 to early 2009 which probably explains why we find stronger results than earlier papers such as obstfeld et al 2009 2010 and rose and spiegel 2009a b 2010 2011 which use annual data

real options wage bargaining factor subsidies and employment the paper combines a translog variable cost function a bargaining model of wage determination and a real option model determining real capital using this framework the effect of factor subsidies on labour demand is estimated based on aggregate panel data for norwegian manufacturing industry in the period 1980 1988

balance of payments crises in a cash in advance economy the author shows that a flexible prices sidrauski type model with a cash in advance constraint is capable of depicting some of the phenomena associated with a balance of payments crisis like the onesrecently observed in argentina and mexico current accounts deficits and appreciation of the real exchange rat e it is also shown that these phenomena become exacerbated as the rate of devaluation before the crisis occurs becomes smaller copyright 1987 by ohio state university press

mutually exclusive investment with technical uncertainty a firm which faces technical uncertainty as in pindyck 1993 can choose between two mutually exclusive investment projects projects 1 and 2 the added option to exercise project 2 makes the firm less likely to exercise project 1 an increase in the degree of technical uncertainty the investment rate or the investment value upon completion for project 2 encourages the firm to exercise project 2 by increasing the trigger level of the expected cost of project 2 this however ambiguously affects the firm s incentive to exercise project 1 as the firm would rather implement project 1 2 in a region where the expected cost of project 2 is relatively high low

for a few dollars more reserves and growth in times of crises abstract based on a dataset of 112 emerging economies and developing countries this paper addresses the question whether the accumulation of international reserves has effectively protected countries during the 2008 09 financial crisis more specifically the paper investigates the relation between international reserves and the existence of capital controls we find that the level of reserves matters countries with high reserves relative to short term debt suffered less from the crisis particularly when associated with a less open capital account this suggests some degree of complementarity between reserve accumulation and capital controls

determining the environmental effects of indirect subsidies integrated method and application to the netherlands the term environmentally damaging subsidies covers all sorts of direct and indirect subsidies with negative consequences for the environment this article presents a method to determine the environmental impact of these subsidies it combines a microeconomic framework with an environmental impact module the method is particularly useful for analysing indirect subsidies these are often hidden and therefore not recognized as subsidies use of the method will provide a basis for formulating corrective policy the method is applied to several important subsidies in the netherlands in agriculture energy and transport sectors the results reveal large environmental effects which deserve serious attention from policy makers to illustrate the specific features of the method its application to a particular subsidy namely the exemption of excise taxes on aviation fuels is presented in full detail

temporary stabilization predetermined exchange rates the paper analyzes the impact of a stabilization policy based on a temporary reduction in the rate of devaluation against a background in which a constant rate of devaluation has no real effects it is shown that the temporary policy does and furthermore that the real effects tend to become bigger in absolute value as the horizon of the temporary policy is shortened the central discussion is carried out in terms of a one good cash in advance model with perfect capital mobility and ramsey type consumers results are extended to account for home goods and variable velocity the roles of capital mobility and banking liberalization are briefly discussed

non core bank liabilities and financial vulnerability a lending boom is reflected in the composition of bank liabilities when traditional retail deposits core liabilities cannot keep pace with asset growth and banks turn to other funding sources non core liabilities to finance their lending we formulate a model of credit supply as the flip side of a credit risk model where a large stock of non core liabilities serves as an indicator of the erosion of risk premiums and hence of vulnerability to a crisis we find supporting empirical evidence in a panel probit study of emerging and developing economies

modeling location and production an application to u s fully integrated steel plants i n weber s 1929 theory of the location of industry spatial firms produce under conditions of fixed proportions and constant returns to scale while their spatial consumers have priceinelastic demands weber s assumptions are relaxed separately in previous work moses 1958 and alonso 1967 allow either for flexible technologies but inelastic demands or for pricesensitive demands but fixed proportions technologies this paper presents a behavioral and econometric model of spatial firms which simultaneously relaxes restrictive assumptions on both technology and demand assumptions of earlier models become testable hypotheses the behavioral model is general to any spatial firm the econometric model can be estimated for any industry the paper reports an estimation of the model for a sample of fully integrated steel plants in the united states the steel industry is appropriate for illustrating the general model for two reasons first the important inputs in steel are localized weight losing materials while transportation charges are a nontrivial part of the delivered prices of both these inputs and of steel products second previous research lacks agreement about the principal determinants of steel plant locations disagreement also exists over the structure of production and the extent of scale economies in production and the existence of substitution possibilities among inputs each of these disagreements is treated as a hypothesis within this paper first a model which includes the influences of both consumers and materials on location can distinguish the comparative influence of each the literature lacks agreement on whether the steel industry is transport oriented in which case consumer demands are price inelastic and an optimal location minimizes transport costs or market oriented in which case consumer demands are price elastic and an optimal location reflects that sensitivity isard 1948 suggests the influences on location change over time due to changes in technology and relative prices isard and capron 1949 conclude the steel industry is transport oriented more recently hekman 1978 reports that the demand for steel is priceelastic he concludes that locations in the steel industry are sensitive to consumer demands the evidence in this paper portrays the steel industry as transport oriented second there are differing estimates of the extent of scale economies in steel production ranging from constant returns to scale hekman 1978 to a minimum efficient scale m e s of twelve million tons cockerill 1974 scherer 1973 and weiss 1976 estimate m e s of four million tons while tarr 1977 gives the mid1970s m e s at six million tons an estimate reported in this paper as well third the existence of substitution possibilities among inputs has implications for both location and production if substitution possibilities are limited weber models of location may be applied to the steel industry previous research has characterized steelnmaking technology as fixed proportions tsao and day 1971 cobb douglas hekman 1978 or having wide variation in substitution possibilities kopp and smith 1980 moroney and trapani 1981 this paper presents estimated elasticities of substitution suggestive of great substitution possibilities among inputs the behavioral model of location and production is presented and then transformed into an econometric model in section ii a brief discussion of regional markets for steel products and a description of the data appears in section iii received for publication july 31 1981 revision accepted for publication july 7 1982 wayne state university this research is based on my ph d dissertation at the university of wisconsin madison the advice of frank m gollop eugene smolensky and charles a wilson is gratefully acknowledged i have benefited from discussions with james hamilton and li way lee and comments by jan brueckner and several anonymous referees computing support has been provided by the graduate schools at the university of wisconsin madison and wayne state university the responsibility for any remaining errors is mine an earlier version of this paper was presented at the 1980 north american meetings of the econometric society

the elasticity of scale and the shape of average costs different concepts of returns to scale the first which is most widely used for defining returns to scale is the relative increase in output as all input quantities are increased proportionally along a ray through the origin the second which is the more relevant concept for micro economic analysis is the increase in output relative to costs for variations along the expansion path where input prices are constant and costs are minimized at every output 2 as it turns out these two concepts yield equal measures for the elasticity of scale3 e at every minimum cost point in the input space however the change in e with output is generally different for the two concepts 4 since expansion paths do not coincide with rays unless the production function is homothetic 5 but it is the change of e along the expansion path and not along the raywhich determines the shape of the average cost curve ac and which is therefore relevant for the analysis of firms and industry behavior under competition 6 these relations are stated and analyzed below it is shown that assumptions made in the literature7 which are related to the behavior of e along rays or to the slope of the technically optimal surface where returns to scale are locally constant are irrelevantbeing neither necessary nor sufficient for implying classical u shaped average cost curves the following definitions and results are used here

input substitution economies of scale and productivity growth in the us upholstered furniture industry cost factor demand and productivity growth are considered in the upholstered furniture industry over 1958 87 factors are divided into labour capital and materials it is found that all inputs are substitutes in production although substitution elasticities are small factor demand is price inelastic for all inputs the industry operates around minimum average cost productivity growth is small but significant the results indicate that labour will continue to be important in the industry however regional comparative advantage is not related to labour alone the results suggest that policies to attract or retain the industry must consider the low degree of factor substitution

the determinants of vulnerability to the global financial crisis 2008 to 2009 credit growth and other sources of risk abstract in this paper we identify initial macroeconomic and financial market conditions that help explain the distinct response of the real economy of a particular country to the recent global financial crisis using four measures of crisis severity we examine a data set with over 90 potential explanatory factors employing techniques that are robust to model uncertainty four findings are of particular note first we find empirical evidence for the pivotal role of pre crisis credit growth in shaping the real economy s response to the crisis specifically a 1 increase in pre crisis lending translates into a 0 2 increase in the cumulative loss in real output moreover the combination of pronounced growth in lending ahead of the crisis and the country s exposure to external funding from advanced economies is shown to intensify the real downturn economies with booming real activity before the crisis are found to be less resilient to the global shock buoyant growth in real gdp in parallel with strong growth of credit particularly exacerbated the effects of the recent crisis on the real economy finally we provide empirical evidence on the importance of holding international reserves in explaining the response of the real economy to the crisis the accumulation of international reserves mitigated the harmful effects of financial stress on the real economy in particular when domestic funding via credit is abundant the results are shown to be robust to several estimation techniques including those allowing for cross country spillovers

targeting the real exchange rate theory and evidence abstract this paper presents a theoretical and empirical analysis of policies aimed at setting a more depreciated level of the real exchange rate an intertemporal optimizing model suggests that in the absence of changes in fiscal policy a more depreciated level of the real exchange rate can only be attained temporarily this can be achieved by means of higher inflation and or higher real interest rates depending on the degree of capital mobility evidence for brazil chile and colombia supports the model s prediction that undervalued real exchange rates are associated with higher inflation

bargaining power fear of disagreement and wage settlements theory and evidence from u s industry the paper develops and estimates a theoretical model of wage determination and union nonunion wage differentials in order to overcome the institutional ctiticisms of the formal bargaining literature the paper generalizes the nash zeuthen harsanyi model by linking the solution to the institutional concepts of bargaining power and fear or cost of disagreement and by making the outcome depend not only on endogenous but also on exogenous factors an operational specification of bargaining power and fear of disagreement allows the model to be estimated with data covering twelve companies and trade unions during the period from mid 1950 s to the late 1970 s while giving limited support to the nashzeuthen harsanyi solution the empirical analysis indicates that the bargaining outcome usually deviates from the nash zeuthen harsanyi point and in accordance with the institutionalist claim that it varies significantly with exogenous factors contrary to the traditional labor economics view the results do not support the general conclusion that the bargaining solution lies on the marginal revenue product curve of labor instead the relevant coefficients suggest that for many firms and unions the outcome might be better characterized by the efficient contract vertical contract curve

a scale elasticity measure for directional distance function and its dual theory and dea estimation abstract in this paper we focus on scale elasticity measure based on directional distance function for multi output multi input technologies explore its fundamental properties and show its equivalence with the input oriented and output oriented scale elasticity measures we also establish duality relationship between the scale elasticity measure based on the directional distance function with scale elasticity measure based on the profit function finally we discuss the estimation issues of the scale elasticity based on the directional distance function via the dea estimator

a multi level panel star model for us manufacturing sectors we introduce a multi level smooth transition model for a panel of time series which can be used to examine the presence of common nonlinear business cycle features across many variables the model is positioned in between a fully pooled model which imposes such common features and a fully heterogeneous model which allows for unrestricted nonlinearity we introduce a second stage model linking the parameters that determine the timing of the switches between business cycle regimes to observable explanatory variables thereby allowing for lead lag relationships across panel members we discuss representation estimation by concentrated simulated maximum likelihood and inference we illustrate our model using quarterly industrial production in 19 us manufacturing sectors and document that there are subtle differences across sectors in leads and lags for switches between business cycle recessions and expansions copyright 2005 john wiley sons ltd

the rise in unemployment a multi country study one of the most remarkable features of recent economic history has been the remorseless rise in unemployment throughout the industrialized countries however while the trend to higher unemployment is universal the experience of individual countries also differs widely the increase is especially marked within the european community where unemployment rates rival those reached in the interwar years by contrast in the scandinavian countries and japan unemployment is lower and has risen very much less experience in the united states lies somewhere between these extremes and in the last few years unemployment there has fallen sharply

production location decision and free entry oligopoly abstract this paper presents a simple oligopolistic model of location in which all firms in an imperfectly competitive industry are assumed to produce a homogeneous output and make cournot conjectures about their rivals input and location decisions within this framework this paper points out that the key difference between oligopoly and monopoly is the following in the case of monopoly a positive shift in demand requires that a monopolist increase his output but in the case of oligopoly an increase in industry output may or may not increase output per firm because of the number of firms at free entry equilibrium is not constant it is shown that in an oligopoly model of location that allows free entry the demand condition plays an important role on the determination of industrial location

stabilization with exchange rate management stabilization programs in open economies typically consist of two stages in the first stage the rate of currency devaluation is reduced but the fiscal adjustment does not eliminate the fiscal deficit that causes growth of debt and loss of reserves making a future policy change necessary only later at a second stage is this followed by either an abandonment of exchange rate management or by a sufficiently large cut in the fiscal deficit we study how different second stage policy changes affect economic dynamics during the first stage these changes include tax increases budget cuts on traded and nontraded goods and increases in the growth rate of money

the modern history of exchange rate arrangements a reinterpretation we develop a novel system of reclassifying historical exchange rate regimes one key difference between our study and previous classifications is that we employ monthly data on market determined parallel exchange rates going back to 1946 for 153 countries our approach differs from the imf official classification which we show to be only a little better than random it also differs radically from all previous attempts at historical reclassification our classification points to a rethinking of economic performance under alternative exchange rate regimes indeed the breakup of bretton woods had less impact on exchange rate regimes than is popularly believed