investor preference for large firms new evidence on economies of size in the last several decades industrial organization literature has been replete with studies demonstrating a systematic relationship between accounting rates of return and firm size in the direction of greater and more stable accounting profits for larger firms these studies have been subject to criticism for an alarming number of statistical and conceptual problems the most important of which alleges a serious bias in accounting profit measures as proxies for economic profit 2 the criticisms have resulted in a stalemate in the interpretation of empirical evidence on firm size and performance nevertheless there is continued interest in the area ostensibly resulting from policy concerns with large firm advantages in both product and capital markets this paper provides new evidence concerning the industrial organization literature controversy of the connection between firm size and performance stock market data are used to examine the relationship between capital market returns risk and firm size the findings suggest that even if there were no advantages of large size in the product market equal rates of operating profit large firms would still have a substantial capital raising advantage over small firms this advantage is unrelated to the widely recognized floatation cost economies even after controlling for nondiversifiable risk using the capital asset pricing model capm investors still demonstrate a statistically significant and economically important preference for the securities of larger firms investors apparently place a premium on large firms which is not attributable to large firms observed lower risk as captured by the widely used measure of nondiversifiable risk beta risk this finding a fresh contribution to the

information acquisition and under diversification if an investor wants to form a portfolio of risky assets and can exert effort to collect information on the future value of these assets before he invests which assets should he learn about the best assets to acquire information about are ones the investor expects to hold but the assets the investor holds depend on the information he observes we build a framework to solve jointly for investment and information choices with general preferences and information cost functions although the optimal research strategies depend on preferences and costs the main result is that the investor who can first collect information systematically deviates from holding a diversified portfolio information acquisition can rationalize investing in a diversified fund and a concentrated set of assets an allocation often observed but usually deemed anomalous copyright wiley blackwell

a simple model of a money management market with rational and extrapolative investors abstract i analyze a simple model of competition in fees among mutual funds the funds are vertically differentiated in terms of the expected return they can generate for investors following berk and green 2004 i assume that a fund s net return is decreasing in the amount of capital it manages and that there is an infinite supply of capital by rational investors unlike the berk green model i assume there is also a finite supply of capital by non rational investors who naively chase recent net returns investor behavior and the funds fee profile induce a long run average amount of managed capital for each fund i analyze nash equilibrium in the game played by the funds focusing on the implications of fund skill on fees capital flows and net performance

strategic price complexity in retail financial markets abstract there is mounting empirical evidence to suggest that the law of one price is violated in retail financial markets there is significant price dispersion even when products are homogeneous also despite the large number of firms in the market prices remain above marginal cost and may even rise as more firms enter in a non cooperative oligopoly pricing model i show that these anomalies arise when firms add complexity to their price structures complexity increases the market power of the firms because it prevents some consumers from becoming knowledgeable about prices in the market in the model as competition increases firms tend to add more complexity to their prices as a best response rather than make their disclosures more transparent because this may substantially decrease consumer surplus in these markets such practices have important welfare implications

stock market returns and annuitization abstract i investigate the strong negative relation between recent stock returns and the annuitization of retirement savings using a novel data set with over 100 000 actual payout decisions after controlling for several standard explanations e g wealth effects i present evidence supporting naive beliefs and extrapolation from past returns the effect of recent returns on annuitization dramatically increases with age confirming that the elderly rely most heavily on recent information my results provide insights into how beliefs are formed in old age and have implications for the design of public policies seeking to promote annuitization

a further look at household portfolio choice and health status abstract this paper investigates the effect of changes in health status on household financial wealth and financial portfolio choice it is shown that the impact of health events on household financial and non financial wealth is asymmetric a diagnosis of a new disease leads to a larger decrease in financial wealth than in non financial wealth moreover we find that the puzzle pertaining to the relationship between health status and portfolio choice discussed in the extant literature generally disappears after controlling for differences in the amount of financial assets held by healthy and sick people the results suggest that the effect of changes in health status on household financial portfolios is indirect a health shock significantly reduces household total financial wealth in turn leading households to restructure the composition of their financial assets

endogenous growth and the emergence of equity finance abstract this paper characterises the development of equity markets as a dynamic process that both influences and is influenced by the development of the real sector of the economy in overlapping generations economy borrowers seek funds to run risky investment projects by drawing up contracts which may take the form of either equity or debt issue in the presence of information asymmetry between borrowers and lenders the optimal contract is determined by trading off information dilution costs against bankruptcy costs significantly the equilibrium choice of contract depends on the state of the economy which in turn depends on the contracting regime based on this analysis the paper provides a theory of the joint determination of real and financial development with the ability to explain the emergence of a stock market along the path of real development

non concavity problems in the dynamic macroeconomic models a note abstract this note provides a method to convert the dynamic models in cysne cysne rubens p 2006 a note on the non convexity problem in some shopping time and human capital models journal of banking and finance 30 10 2737 2745 and in cysne cysne rubens p 2008 a note on inflation and welfare journal of banking and finance 32 9 1984 1987 to concave optimization problems we do this by introducing new control and state variables in the models cysne 2006 2008 restrict attention to continuous time models and derive parametric conditions to use arrow s sufficiency theorem when the sufficient conditions presented in cysne 2006 are satisfied but not under the sharper sufficient conditions presented in cysne 2008 we can rewrite these models as concave optimization problems even if time is discrete

behavioral biases of mutual fund investors we examine the effect of behavioral biases on the mutual fund choices of a large sample of us discount brokerage investors using new measures of attention to news tax awareness and fund level familiarity bias in addition to behavioral and demographic characteristics of earlier studies behaviorally biased investors typically make poor decisions about fund style and expenses trading frequency and timing resulting in poor performance furthermore trend chasing appears related to behavioral biases rather than to rationally inferring managerial skill from past performance factor analysis suggests that biased investors often conform to stereotypes that can be characterized as gambler smart overconfident narrow framer and mature

measuring investors socially responsible preferences in mutual funds the aim of this study is to analyze investor behavior towards socially responsible mutual funds the analysis is based on an experimental study where a sample of individuals takes investment decisions under different parameters of information about the investment alternatives and expected returns in the experiment each participant decides how to distribute an investment budget between two funds returns on which are uncertain and change over time two treatments are conducted each providing a different degree of information on the socially responsible sr character of one of the two investment alternatives the results obtained suggest that although individuals criteria for investment are essentially guided by returns and diversification participants invest significantly more in a fund when they are explicitly informed about its sr nature in particular participants who declare being concerned about sr actually invest significantly more in the sr alternative furthermore the level of sr faithfulness among a small group of investors is such that they invest the main share of their budget in the sr fund even when the return differential is highly unfavorable providing clear information about the sr characteristics of an investment is crucial to help investors express their preferences

does anticipated information impose a cost on risk averse investors a test of the hirshleifer effect this paper theoretically and empirically investigates how the risk of future adverse price changes created by the anticipated arrival of information influences risk averse investors trading decisions in institutionally imperfect capital markets specifically i examine how the selling activity of individual investors immediately following an earnings announcement is influenced by the tradeoff between risk sharing benefits of immediate trade and explicit transaction costs imposed on such trades consistent with my theoretically derived predictions i find that investors current trading decisions are less sensitive to the incremental transaction costs created by short term capital gains taxes on trading profits as both the duration and intensity of the risk of future adverse price changes increase this evidence is consistent with an incremental cost to investors that results from the revelation of precise information which is commonly referred to as the hirshleifer effect

institutional determinants of capital structure adjustment speeds abstract many authors relate a firm s performance to legal and political features and the regulatory environment in which it operates this article compares firms capital structure adjustments across countries and investigates whether institutional differences help explain the variance in estimated adjustment speeds we find that legal and financial traditions significantly correlate with firm adjustment speeds more narrowly institutional features also relate to adjustment speeds consistent with the hypothesis that better institutions lower the transaction costs associated with adjusting a firm s leverage such associations between institutional arrangements and leverage adjustment speeds are consistent with the dynamic trade off theory of capital structure choice

portfolio selection with mental accounts and delegation das et al 2010 develop an elegant framework where an investor selects portfolios within mental accounts but ends up holding an aggregate portfolio on the mean variance frontier this investor directly allocates the wealth in each account among available assets in practice however investors often delegate the task of allocating wealth among assets to portfolio managers who seek to beat certain benchmarks accordingly we extend their framework to the case where the investor allocates the wealth in each account among portfolio managers our contribution is threefold first we provide an analytical characterization of the existence and composition of the optimal portfolios within accounts and the aggregate portfolio second we present conditions under which such portfolios are not on the mean variance frontier and conditions under which they are third we show that the aforementioned analytical characterization is also applicable within the framework of das et al and thus improves upon their numerical approach

optimal life insurance purchase and consumption investment under uncertain lifetime abstract in this paper we consider optimal insurance and consumption rules for a wage earner whose lifetime is random the wage earner is endowed with an initial wealth and he also receives an income continuously but this may be terminated by the wage earner s premature death we use dynamic programming to analyze this problem and derive the optimal insurance and consumption rules explicit solutions are found for the family of crra utilities and the demand for life insurance is studied by examining our solutions and doing numerical experiments

asset allocation and location over the life cycle with investment linked survival contingent payouts abstract this paper shows how survival contingent investment linked payouts can enhance investor wellbeing in the context of a portfolio choice model which integrates uninsurable labor income and asymmetric mortality expectations in exchange for illiquidity these products provide the consumer with access to mutual fund style portfolio choice as well as the survival credit generated from pooling mortality risk our model generates optimal asset location patterns indicating how much to hold in liquid versus illiquid survival contingent payouts over the lifetime and also asset allocation paths showing how to invest in stocks versus bonds we show that the investor who moves her money out of liquid saving into survival contingent assets gradually from middle age to retirement and beyond will enhance her welfare by as much as 50 the results are robust to the introduction of uninsurable consumption shocks in housing expenses income flows during the worklife and retirement sudden changes in health status and medical expenses

behavioral rationality in finance the case of dividends as the title suggests this paper attempts to get to the specifics of the behavioral rationality theme of this conference by focusing on an area in the main core of finance namely the demand and supply of dividends where by common consent the essentially rationalist paradigm of the field seems to be limping most noticeably important and pervasive behavior patterns on both the paying and the receiving ends have despairingly been written off as puzzles even by theorists as redoubtable as fischer black see esp his much cited 1976 article behaviorists have homed in on precisely these same dividendrelated soft spots in the current body of theory see esp shefrin and statman 1984 we seem to have in sum an ideal place to look for signs of an imminent paradigm shift in the behavioral direction of precisely the kind envisioned by some of the other contributors to this conference the dividend related difficulties and supposed anomalies at issue here are more than just the parochial concern of finance specialists the dividends seem a natural area in finance where the introduction of behavioral cognitive elements might help resolve long standing anomalies particularly the seeming failure of supply to adjust to taxinduced price penalties a closer look at the empirical record however particularly at evidence of responsiveness to major structural changes shows behavior of the aggregates to be less anomalous than conventional handwringing might suggest behavioral cognitive elements whatever they might contribute to the description of particular microdecisions do not appear to be essential adjuncts to the basic finance model in the major comparative static applications for which it was intended helpful comments on an earlier version of this paper have been received from nai fu chen jean marie gagnon gur huberman kose john james poterba and especially melvin reder

what determines mutual fund trading in foreign stocks abstract we examine the portfolio rebalancing measured by the equity churn rate of mutual funds from 29 countries based on annual stockholdings over the 1999 2006 period we find that funds more often trade the stocks of companies located in countries with higher degree of information asymmetry and are less familiar to fund managers after we control for the effects of stock market development and investor protection consistent with the behavioral bias fund managers more often rebalance stocks in foreign markets that perform well this bias is exacerbated when fund managers are less familiar with and less informed about those markets

optimal portfolio choice for long horizon investors with nontradable labor income this paper examines how risky labor income and retirement affect optimal portfolio choice with idiosyncratic labor income risk the optimal allocation to stocks is unambiguously larger for employed investors than for retired investors consistent with the typical recommendations of investment advisors increasing idiosyncratic labor income risk raises investors willingness to save and reduces their stock portfolio allocation towards the level of retired investors positive correlation between labor income and stock returns has a further negative effect and can actually reduce stockholdings below the level of retired investors financial advisors typically recommend that their customers invest more in stocks than in safe assets when they are working and to shift their investments towards safe assets when they retire jagannathan and kocherlakota 1996 malkiel 1996 by contrast the standard academic models of portfolio choice merton 1969 1971 samuelson 1969 show that retirement is irrelevant for portfolio decisions if investment opportunities are constant and human capital is tradable in this case the fraction of wealth optimally invested in risky assets should be constant over the lifetime of an individual recent research building on the pioneering work by merton 1971 shows that time varying investment opportunities result in portfolio rules with an intertemporal hedging component whose magnitude depends on the investment horizon of the investor kim and omberg 1996 balduzzi and lynch 1997 brennan schwartz and lagnado 1997 brandt 1999 campbell and viceira 1999 2001 barberis 2000 with time variation in investment opportunities retirement and death play an instrumental role as events that exogenously fix the individual s investment horizon more importantly retirement also marks the time at which individuals stop working and thereafter must live off their lifetime savings and possibly transfers from this perspective retirement matters for portfolio choice

global developments in the competition for land from biofuels the potential global demand for biofuels and the implications of this for land use and its interaction with food agriculture is reviewed it is expected that biofuels will form an important element of global transport energy mix in the order of 20 30 of total requirement over the next 40 years and beyond over this time there will be a transition from so called first generation biofuels based on commodity agricultural crops with food feed uses to advanced biofuels sometimes called second and third generation biofuels based primarily upon lignocellulosic feedstocks it remains unclear whether these advanced biofuels based on lignocellulosic materials will entirely replace first generation or if second generation will be supplemental to first generation this expansion in biofuels will be coupled to a substantial increase in alternative fuels electricity hydrogen biogas and natural gas and modal shifts biofuel production from agricultural commodity crops that exhibit strong sustainability criteria will remain important e g sugarcane with supportive and competitive aspects for food security land requirement projections estimated for a range of potential biofuel development trajectories range widely and are inherently uncertain under the most active scenario that delivers substantive greenhouse gas reductions in transport by 2050 relative to 2005 levels approximately 100 mha of additional land is projected in the business as usual scenario in which transport energy demand rises by 80 by 2050 from present levels a land use requirement of 650 mha is projected significant potential exists for producing biofuels that possess high productivity and sustainability profiles through continued research development and demonstration policy and regulation at a global level that focuses biofuel development on these goals in ways that are synergistic with food agriculture will simultaneously help to decarbonise transport and maintain a diverse and financially robust agricultural and forestry sector

do after tax returns affect mutual fund inflows abstract this paper explores the relationship between the after tax returns that taxable investors earn on equity mutual funds and the subsequent cash inflows to these funds previous studies have documented that funds with high pretax returns attract greater inflows this paper presents evidence based on a large sample of retail equity mutual funds over the period 1993 1999 that after tax returns have more explanatory power than pretax returns in explaining inflows in addition funds with large overhangs of unrealized capital gains experience smaller inflows all else equal than funds without such unrealized gains a large capital gain overhang discourages both gross fund inflows and gross outflows but the inflow effect dominates the outflow effect

lottery players stock traders the behavior of stock traders and lottery buyers can teach us about our common aspirations thoughts and emotions and help answer many questions of finance

costly search and mutual fund flows this paper studies the flows of funds into and out of equity mutual funds consumers base their fund purchase decisions on prior performance information but do so asymmetrically investing disproportionately more in funds that performed very well the prior period search costs seem to be an important determinant of fund flows high performance appears to be most salient for funds that exert higher marketing effort as measured by higher fees flows are directly related to the size of the fund s complex as well as the current media attention received by the fund which lower consumers search costs

the earnings announcement premium around the globe abstract u s stocks have been shown to earn higher returns during earnings announcement months than during non announcement months we document that this earnings announcement premium exists across the globe moreover it is not isolated to a few countries of the 20 countries with enough data to conduct a within country analysis nine exhibit a significantly positive premium a cross country analysis finds that the premium is strongest in countries with the greatest increase in idiosyncratic volatility around the time of their firms earnings announcements suggesting that uncertainty over the earnings information to be disclosed is a primary driver of the global announcement premium

continuous time methods in finance a review and an assessment i survey and assess the development of continuous time methods in finance during the last 30 years the subperiod 1969 to 1980 saw a dizzying pace of development with seminal ideas in derivatives securities pricing term structure theory asset pricing and optimal consumption and portfolio choices during the period 1981 to 1999 the theory has been extended and modified to better explain empirical regularities in various subfields of finance this latter subperiod has seen significant progress in econometric theory computational and estimation methods to test and implement continuous time models capital market frictions and bargaining issues are being increasingly incorporated in continuous time theory the roots of modern continuous time methods in finance can be traced back to the seminal contributions of merton 1969 1971 1973b in the late 1960s and early 1970s merton 1969 pioneered the use of continuous time modeling in financial economics by formulating the intertemporal consumption and portfolio choice problem of an investor in a stochastic dynamic programming setting merton 1973b also showed how such a framework can be used to develop equilibrium asset pricing implications thereby significantly extending the asset pricing theory to richer dynamic settings and expanding the scope of applications of continuous time methods to study problems in financial economics 1 within a span of about 30 years from the publication of merton s inf luential papers continuous time methods have become an integral part of financial economics indeed in certain core areas in finance such as e g asset pricing derivatives valuation term structure theory and portfolio selection continuoustime methods have proved to be the most attractive way to conduct research and gain economic intuition the continuous time approach in these areas has produced models with a rich variety of testable implications the econometric theory for testing continuous time models has made rapid strides in the last decade and has thus kept pace with the impressive progress on the theoretical front one hopes that the actual empirical investigations and estimation using the new procedures will follow suit soon

biofuels and the role of space in sustainable innovation journeys this paper aims to identify the lessons that should be learnt from how biofuels have been envisioned from the aftermath of the oil shocks of the 1970s to the present and how these visions compare with biofuel production networks emerging in the 2000s working at the interface of sustainable innovation journey research and geographical theories on the spatial unevenness of sustainability transition projects we show how the biofuels controversy is linked to characteristics of globalised industrial agricultural systems the legitimacy problems of biofuels cannot be addressed by sustainability indicators or new technologies alone since they arise from the spatial ordering of biofuel production in the 1970 80s promoters of bioenergy anticipated current concerns about food security implications but envisioned bioenergy production to be territorially embedded at national or local scales where these issues would be managed where the territorial and scalar vision was breached it was to imagine poorer countries exporting higher value biofuel to the north rather than the raw material as in the controversial global biomass commodity chains of today however controversy now extends to the global impacts of national biofuel systems on food security and greenhouse gas emissions and to their local impacts becoming more widely known south south and north north trade conflicts are also emerging as are questions over biodegradable wastes and agricultural residues as global commodities as assumptions of a food versus fuel conflict have come to be challenged legitimacy questions over global agri business and trade are spotlighted even further in this context visions of biofuel development that address these broader issues might be promising these include large scale biomass for fuel models in europe that would transform global trade rules to allow small farmers in the global south to compete and small scale biofuel systems developed to address local energy needs in the south

tax motivated trading by individual investors we study the stock trades of a large number of individual investors to investigate how tax incentives affect the realization of capital gains and losses we compare investors realization behavior in their taxable and tax deferred accounts and thereby identify the effect of taxes on trading decisions we reach four conclusions first we find clear evidence of a lock in effect for capital gains in taxable accounts relative to tax deferred accounts we find evidence of the disposition effect the tendency for investors to hold losses and sell gains in both types of accounts and especially at short holding periods the lock in effect is stronger for large stock transactions than for small ones second we find tax loss selling throughout the calendar year though it is most pronounced in december tax loss trading is more pronounced among investors who have realized capital gains elsewhere in the portfolio during the year third we observe substantial heterogeneity in individual investors propensity to trade controlling for this heterogeneity however does not alter the relation between a stock s past performance and the realization decision finally we find that relatively few investors repurchase stocks that they have sold at a loss even after the 30 day wash sale holding period has expired

dependents and the demand for life insurance a breadwinner s demand for life insurance depends on the demographic structure of his or her household the author captures the relationship by extending menahem e yaari s life insurance framework to include the preferences of all household members explicitly in many households the insured is the husband and the beneficiaries are his wife and offspring their demand for insurance of the husband s life is derived from a life cycle model in which income is uncertain the results are intuitively appealing in that they describe the explicit calculation made by purchasers of life insurance empirical estimates based on observed life insurance ownership also are encouraging copyright 1989 by american economic association

optimal consumption portfolio choices and retirement planning abstract we examine consumption and investment decisions in a life cycle model with habit formation stochastic opportunity set stochastic wages and labor supply flexibility retirement is taken into account by specifying an age at which labor earnings stop but consumption spending continues explicit solutions are obtained for optimal consumption labor supply and the financing portfolio we examine the structure and determinants of the optimal portfolio we also study the effects of the retirement date and of habits on optimal decisions finally we conduct a preliminary analysis to assess the effects of a liquidity constraint on optimal consumption leisure choices

a monte carlo method for optimal portfolios this paper proposes a new simulation based approach for optimal portfolio allocation in realistic environments with complex dynamics for the state variables and large numbers of factors and assets a first illustration involves a choice between equity and cash with nonlinear interest rate and market price of risk dynamics intertemporal hedging demands significantly increase the demand for stocks and exhibit low volatility we then analyze settings where stock returns are also predicted by dividend yields and where investors have wealth dependent relative risk aversion large scale problems with many assets including the nasdaq sp500 bonds and cash are also examined the question of optimal portfolio allocation has been of long standing interest for academics and practitioners in finance while the mean variance analysis of markowitz 1952 is still commonly used among portfolio managers it has been well understood since merton 1971 that long term investors would prefer portfolios that include hedging components to protect against fluctuations in their investment opportunities prompted by the seminal papers of merton 1969 1971 and samuelson 1969 studies have explored various aspects of the dynamic portfolio problem when asset prices follow diffusion processes e g richard 1975 this literature has relied for the most part on a dynamic programming approach to the problem more recent contributions by pliska 1986 karatzas lehoczky and shreve 1987 and cox and huang 1989 have proposed an alternative resolution method based on martingale techniques in the context of this approach an optimal portfolio formula was derived by ocone and karatzas 1991 this expression involves expectations of random variables depending on j6erme b detemple is at boston university school of management and cirano rene

misspecification of capital asset pricing this study documents empirical anomalies which suggest that either the simple one period capital asset pricing model capm is misspecified or that capital markets are inefficient in particular portfolios based on firm size or earnings price e p ratios experience average returns systematically different from those predicted by the capm furthermore the abnormal returns persist for at least two years this persistence reduces the likelihood that these results are being generated by a market inefficiency rather the evidence seems to indicate that the equilibrium pricing model is misspecified however the data also reveals that an e p effect does not emerge after returns are controlled for the firm size effect the firm size effect largely subsumes the e p effect thus while the e p anomaly and value anomaly exist when each variable is considered separately the two anomalies seem to be related to the same set of missing factors and these factors appear to be more closely associated with firm size than e p ratios

portfolio choice and mortality contingent claims the general hara case abstract we solve a portfolio choice problem that includes mortality contingent claims and labor income under general hara preferences our contribution beyond existing literature is to i focus on the covariance between shocks to human capital and financial capital to ii model the utility of a family with basic needs and iii include life insurance and pension annuity claims in one unified life cycle model our solution employs a similarity reduction mapping which reduces the two dimensional hjb equation into one dimension this allows for the implementation of a quick numerical scheme and when shocks to human capital and financial capital are perfectly correlated a closed form expression is obtained as a special case

stress testing the equity home bias a turnover analysis of eurozone markets abstract shifts in equity turnover happen on and around holidays because rationally bounded investors become distracted their pattern reveals a persistent equity home bias even in the eurozone a stress test case for the survival of this bias given the high level of economic and financial development and integration in this area the bias is greater for small caps because investors are reluctant to hold this class of foreign asset our study corroborates calendar anomalies in trading volumes but refutes the hypothesis regarding turnover sensitivity to stock returns common in the empirical and theoretical literature based on investor heterogeneity and short sale constraints our results reveal vanishing cost asymmetries in taking long rather than short positions

brothers from different mothers how distribution fees change investment behavior abstract we ask whether loads affect investment flows in the us mutual fund industry we argue that sales fees make the investment decision partially irreversible under these circumstances investors await for a stronger signal of managerial ability before committing to a new fund this stronger signal can take the form of a particularly strong performance or a particularly long series of positive performance realizations looking at pairs of fund shares with the same portfolio but different sales fee arrangements we show that investment flows in share classes with front loads react disproportionally to good performances higher convexity in the flow performance relationship and react to performance realizations further back in time longer memory a counterfactual example of fund shares with back end loads allows us to rule out the hypothesis that this behavior is due to the incentive structure of brokers finally we show that these behavioral modifications induced by front loads have a negative and significant effect on investors timing ability

the impact of global equity offerings this article examines the impact of u s firms issuing equity in multiple markets we compare the stock price reactions to announcements of global equity offers to a control group of issues offered exclusively in the domestic u s market all else equal the adverse price reaction that typically accompanies equity issuance is reduced by 0 8 percent when some shares are sold abroad the overall evidence suggests global offers are effective in expanding demand and reducing the price pressure effects associated with share issuance the benefits of global offers appear to be associated with an increase in the number of foreign shareholders the search for new capital markets and lower costs of capital is an ongoing search for most firms in recent years the number of u s firms issuing common equity in international markets has increased significantly in 1985 u s firms raised 89 million through follow on equity offers in foreign markets and this amount increased to 18 915 million in 1995 a greater than 200 fold increase in nominal terms this paper focuses on follow on global equity issues by u s firms and attempts to assess why firms widely acknowledged to have access to broad and deep domestic capital markets increasingly seek to raise equity abroad the global equity offerings we examine involve a simultaneous sale of common equity at the same offer price in the u s market and one or more international markets we examine the characteristics of the issuers and issues and investigate to what extent the wider distribution of shares affects the pricing and costs of these issues our main line of inquiry examines whether the distribution of shares to multiple markets results in a higher offer price for equity shares than would be obtained had the shares been sold exclusively in the u s market domes

why does the law of one price fail an experiment on index mutual funds we conduct an experiment to evaluate why individuals invest in high fee index funds in our experiments subjects allocate 10 000 across four s p 500 index funds and are rewarded for their portfolio s subsequent return subjects overwhelmingly fail to minimize fees we can reject the hypothesis that subjects buy high fee index funds because of bundled non portfolio services search costs for fees matter but even when we eliminate these costs fees are not minimized instead subjects place high weight on annualized returns since inception fees paid decrease with financial literacy interestingly subjects who choose high fee funds sense they are making a mistake

investment analysis and the adjustment of stock prices to common information in this article we are concerned with the effect of the number of investment analysts following a firm on the speed of adjustment of the firm s stock price to new information that has common effects across firms it is found that returns on portfolios of firms that are followed by many analysts tend to lead those of firms that are followed by fewer analysts even when the firms are of approximately the same size many analyst firms also tend to respond more rapidly to market returns than do few analyst firms adjusting for firm size this relation however is nonlinear and the marginal effect of the number of analysts on the speed of price adjustment increases with the number of analysts article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

foreign institutional investment is governance quality at home important abstract this paper examines the investment preferences of foreign institutional investors investing in the u s market we analyse both firm and country level determinants that influence the foreign institutional investors allocation choices at the country level we find that the governance quality in a foreign institutional investor s home country is a determinant of their decision to invest in the u s market our findings indicate that investors who come from countries with governance setups similar to that of the u s invest more in the united states the investment levels though are more pronounced for countries with governance setups just below that of the u s our results are consistent with both the flight to quality and familiarity arguments and help reconcile prior contradictory empirical evidence at the firm level we present unequivocal evidence in favour of the familiarity argument foreign institutional investors domiciled in countries with high governance quality prefer to invest in u s firms with high corporate governance quality this effect is primarily driven by grey non monitoring institutional investors

behavioral portfolio theory we develop a positive behavioral portfolio theory bpt and explore its implications for portfolio construction and security design the optimal portfolios of bpt investors resemble combinations of bonds and lottery tickets consistent with friedman and savage s 1948 observation we compare the bpt efficient frontier with the mean variance efficient frontier and show that in general the two frontiers do not coincide optimal bpt portfolios are also different from optimal capm portfolios in particular the capm twofund separation does not hold in bpt we present bpt in a single mental account version bpt sa and a multiple mental account version bpt ma bpt sa investors integrate their portfolios into a single mental account while bpt ma investors segregate their port folios into several mental accounts bpt ma portfolios resemble layered pyramids where layers are associated with aspirations we explore a two layer portfolio where the low aspiration layer is designed to avoid poverty while the high aspiration layer is designed for a shot at riches

the ability of global stock exchange mechanisms to mitigate home bias evidence from euronext this paper examines the effects on equity home bias of two mechanisms adopted by euronext when it was formed by the merger of four european countries stock exchanges in 2002 the two structural mechanisms are the integration of trading platforms across the four predecessor exchanges and the creation of named segments of the integrated exchange on which firms could voluntarily list by precommitting to enhanced disclosure and transparency employing a difference in differences research design using other european union companies as a control group we document that the integration of the euronext market was associated with a reduction in home bias for firms listed on the named segments of the euronext exchange but not for the nonsegment euronext firms our results suggest that the reduction in transaction costs from the integration of the trading platforms did not make the nonsegment euronext firms more attractive to the specific investors for whom the transaction costs were reduced on the other hand the decrease in information costs due to the precommitments to enhanced transparency made the segment firms more attractive to all categories of foreign investors consistent with the information costs hypothesis this paper was accepted by mary barth accounting

capital market equilibrium with externalities production and heterogeneous agents abstract the paper studies general equilibrium in an economy with externalities production and heterogeneous agents the model developed builds on brock brock w a 1982 asset prices in a production economy in mccall j j ed the economics of information and uncertainty university of chicago press chicago pp 1 43 and merton merton r c 1987 a simple model of capital market equilibrium with incomplete information journal of finance 42 483 510 it involves both a stock market and a market for loans together with negative externalities produced by a subset of firms importantly the technological production structure of the firms is reflected in the properties of the shares traded in the stock market agents are heterogeneous in their financial choices potentially discriminating against the firms producing a negative externality the model sheds light on the utility costs of the discriminating behavior and on the impact on the price of the stock issued by the firm which is responsible for the externality the model is used to study the factors which may magnify or reduce the impact of discrimination a set of discriminated firms may be seriously affected only if the discriminating investors command a large portion of overall wealth and or they do not represent important diversification instruments the model can be applied to understanding the effects of socially responsible investment whereby investors discriminate against companies belonging to some sectors which are perceived as socially dangerous or unethical

valuation optimal asset allocation and retirement incentives of pension plans we provide a framework in which we link the valuation and asset allocation policies of defined benefits plans with the lifetime marginal productivity schedule of the worker and the pension plan formula in turn we examine the retirement policies that are implied by the primitives of the model and the value of pension obligations our model provides an explicit valuation formula for a stylized defined benefits plan the optimal asset allocation policies consist of the replicating portfolio of the pension liabilities and the growth optimum portfolio independent of the pension liabilities we show that the worker will retire when the ratio of pension benefits to current wages reaches a critical value which depends on the parameters of the pension plan and the discount rate using numerical techniques we analyze the feedback effect of retirement policies on the valuation of plans and on the asset allocation decisions article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

global and local information asymmetries illiquidity and sec rule 144a regulation s the case of indian gdrs abstract between 1992 and 1997 indian firms were the most frequent issuers of equity backed global depositary receipts gdrs governed by the sec s rule 144a and regulation s they also accounted for the highest dollar volume home market stock price responses to these issues are consistent with the hypotheses that gdrs enable firms to resolve two forms of information asymmetry 1 an asymmetry between issuing firms and international investors that results from market segmentation and 2 an asymmetry between indian firms and home market investors that resembles asymmetries that help explain abnormal returns in equity private placements by us firms our evidence suggests that gdr issuance can increase investors recognition of underlying shares even if there are no liquidity enhancements and even if disclosure requirements are not as demanding as those imposed on foreign firms whose depositary receipts trade in public us markets

investors distraction and strategic repricing decisions in this paper i analyze investors reactions to changes in the expense ratios of equity mutual funds i show that investment flows response to fees cannot be fully explained by looking at investors performance sensitivity while performance sensitivity monotonically increases with past performance price sensitivity does not investors who buy top past performers seem to be distracted by the fund s previous return and pay relatively little attention to the expense ratios moreover price sensitivity increases with fund visibility while performance sensitivity decreases and while looking at data from 1986 to 2006 no discernible trend can be observed in the average performance sensitivity price sensitivity strongly increases due to the dramatic increase in the availability of mutual funds information for retail investors finally i show that investment companies strategically time their repricing decisions in order to exploit time variations in price and performance sensitivities and that fund governance quality affects the degree to which investment companies engage in this opportunistic behavior

between ostrom and nordhaus the research landscape of sustainability economics abstract we survey the emerging research area of sustainability economics through a quantitative full text analysis of peer reviewed journal publications from 1987 to 2013 to identify relevant contributions we draw on existing definitions of sustainability economics for a keyword based identification strategy a combined focus on a the human nature relationship b the long term uncertain future c normative orientation towards sustainability and d economic analysis our analysis of a random subsample of 343 relevant papers reveals that i sustainability economics is a rapidly developing research area ii while theoretical contributions shaped the area in earlier years applied work now constitutes the largest share of contributions iii the research landscape can be clustered into eleven research clusters these range from participatory governance of social ecological systems associated with the work of elinor ostrom to questions of intertemporal allocation and distribution applied to climate economics associated with the work of william nordhaus iv the research area is broad in scope and heterogeneous and there is relatively little interaction between important clusters v relevant contributions are published in more than 100 journals ten journals publish half of all contributions led by ecological economics and 40 appear in non economics journals underscoring the importance of interdisciplinary dialogue

optimal stock trading with personal taxes implications for prices and the abnormal january returns abstract the tax law confers upon the investor a timing option to realize capital losses and defer capital gains with the tax rate on long term gains and losses being about half the short term rate the law provides a second timing option to realize losses short term and gains long term if at all our theory and simulation over the 1962 1977 period establish that taxable investors should realize long term gains in high variance stocks and repurchase stock in order to realize potential future losses short term tax trading does not explain the small firm anomaly but predicts a seasonal pattern in trading volume which maps into a seasonal pattern in stock prices the january anomaly only if investors are irrational or ignorant of the price seasonality

are investors rational choices among index funds s p 500 index funds represent one of the simplest vehicles for examining rational behavior they hold virtually the same securities yet their returns differ by more than 2 percent per year although the relative returns of alternative s p 500 funds are easily predictable the relationship between cash flows and performance is weaker than rational behavior would lead us to expect we show that selecting funds based on low expenses or high past returns outperforms the portfolio of index funds selected by investors our results exemplify the fact that in a market where arbitrage is not possible dominated products can prosper

demand curves and the pricing of money management one reason why funds charge different prices to their investors is that they face different demand curves one source of differentiation is asset retention performance sensitive investors migrate from worse to better prospects taking their performance sensitivity with them in the cross section we show that past attrition significantly influences the current pricing of retail but not institutional funds in time series we show that the repricing of retail funds after merging in new shareholders is predicted by the estimated effect on its demand curve this result is robust to other influences on repricing including asset and account size changes copyright 2002 oxford university press

individual investor perceptions and behavior during the financial crisis combining monthly survey data with matching trading records we examine how individual investor perceptions change and drive trading and risk taking behavior during the 2008 2009 financial crisis we find that investor perceptions fluctuate significantly during the crisis with risk tolerance and risk perceptions being less volatile than return expectations during the worst months of the crisis investors return expectations and risk tolerance decrease while their risk perceptions increase towards the end of the crisis investor perceptions recover we document substantial swings in trading and risk taking behavior that are driven by changes in investor perceptions overall individual investors continue to trade actively and do not de risk their investment portfolios during the crisis

institutional and individual investors saving for old age this paper brings together the academic literature on individual and institutional investors in order to understand the nature of difficulties faced by them and set the background for the special issue this introductory article and the papers in the special issue contribute to the debate on how to support individuals in their savings commitments and investment decision making and whether and how institutional investors have fulfilled their role in supporting the development of the funded pension industry there are three main conclusions i individual investors are not ready for the role that has been assigned to them in the pension industry ii institutional investors are a long way short of establishing healthy relational contracts and trustworthy relationships with their clients and iii more effective regulation may be needed

price convexity and skewness this paper develops a model in which investors who are prohibited from short selling agree to disagree on the precision of a publicly observed signal the model implies that the equilibrium price is a convex function of the public signal the model predicts that 1 the stock price reacts more to good news than to bad news 2 the skewness of stock returns is positively correlated with contemporaneous returns but negatively correlated with lagged returns 3 short sale constraints increase rather than decrease skewness and 4 disagreement about information precision increases skewness empirical tests conducted find supportive evidence for all these predictions

household portfolio diversification a case for rank dependent preferences the proliferation of novel preference theories in financial economics is hampered by a lack of non experimental evidence and by the theories additional complexity which has not been shown to be critical in applications in this article i present arguments in support of preferences with rank dependency using the survey of consumer finances data i document two widespread patterns inconsistent with expected utility i many households simultaneously invest in well deversified funds and in poorly diversified portfolios of stocks and ii some households with substantial savings do not invest anything in equities i show that portfolio choice models with rank dependent preferences plausibly parameterized and under fully rational assumptions are quantitatively consistent with the observed diversification these results call for further efforts to integrate the models of rank dependent preferences in portfolio theory and asset pricing the decision theoretic literature has long acknowledged the shortcomings of the expected utility theory of von neumann and morgenstern 1944 several generalizations of the theory are inspired by the experimental evidence and aimed at improving its descriptive accuracy however there are few applications of new models of preferences in finance and expected utility continues to dominate the field 1 two principal hurdles slow the proliferation of novel preferences in financial economics first the lack of empirical non experimental or field data confirming that the behavior motivating non expected utilities is widespread outside the laboratory settings second the additional and often significant complexity of the alternative preferences which has not been shown to be critical in applications where the models based on expected utility fall short of reasonable predictions this article presents empirical and theoretical this paper was previously circulated under the title household portfolio diversification the paper has benefited from the comments of shlomo benartzi luca benzoni markus brunnermeier john dickhaut maria perozek raj singh hersh shefrin and workshop participants at minnesota finance bag lunch 2003 wharton conference household financial decision making and portfolio choice and 2003 summer meetings of econometric society i would like to thank cam harvey the editor and an anonymous referee for many helpful comments and suggestions a special thanks to jack kareken for comments and editorial help on an earlier draft i am grateful to donna zerwitz for editorial assistance the views expressed herein are those of the author and not necessarily of the federal reserve bank of minneapolis or the federal reserve system all errors and omissions are the sole responsibility of the author address correspondence to valery polkovnichenko finance 3 122 csom 319 19 th

optimal portfolio selection with life insurance under inflation risk abstract this paper investigates a continuous time optimal consumption investment and life insurance decision problem of a family under inflation risk in the financial market there is a liquid inflation linked index bond market which can be utilized to hedge the inflation risk the explicit solutions are derived for constant relative risk aversion crra utility case by using martingale approach the roles of index bond are investigated and it is verified that the index bond may have different roles depending on the market parameters we analyze the effects of parameters on the optimal strategies with focus on the optimal demand for index bond and the optimal life insurance premium especially the changes of expected inflation rate and volatility of inflation rate can have both positive and negative impacts on the life insurance premium and their quantitative impacts are considerable

lessons from first generation biofuels and implications for the sustainability appraisal of second generation biofuels the emergence of second generation 2g biofuels is widely seen as a sustainable response to the increasing controversy surrounding the first generation 1g yet sustainability credentials of 2g biofuels are also being questioned drawing on work in science and technology studies we argue that controversies help focus attention on key often value related questions that need to be posed to address broader societal concerns this paper examines lessons drawn from the 1g controversy to assess implications for the sustainability appraisal of 2g biofuels we present an overview of key 1g sustainability challenges assess their relevance for 2g and highlight the challenges for policy in managing the transition we address limitations of existing sustainability assessments by exploring where challenges might emerge across the whole system of bioenergy and the wider context of the social system in which bioenergy research and policy are done key lessons arising from 1g are potentially relevant to the sustainability appraisal of 2g biofuels depending on the particular circumstances or conditions under which 2g is introduced we conclude that sustainability challenges commonly categorised as either economic environmental or social are in reality more complexly interconnected so that an artificial separation of these categories is problematic

financial system design and liquidity provision by banks and markets in a dynamic economy this paper contributes to the literature on financial system design by comparing markets and banks in a dynamic economy investors trade off their liquidity needs against the high returns on illiquid investments both the banking system and the market can provide partial liquidity insurance to investors we consider full market participation as well as limited market participation we demonstrate that the full participation market with intergenerational trading can provide more liquidity than one without insurance is provided through wealth transfer across generations instead of cross subsidization across contemporaneous types as is the case in the finite economy given a full participation market that allows trading across generations only banks with initial capital can provide additional liquidity in a limited participation market with uncertainty about trading types an intergenerational bank with or without initial capital provides additional insurance to investors the need for trade is eliminated finally if there is no uncertainty about trading types then an intergenerational bank with initial capital eliminates the need for trading and improves welfare for all an intergenerational bank without initial capital improves welfare for people who do not trade

incentives and endogenous risk taking a structural view on hedge fund alphas hedge fund managers are subject to several nonlinear incentives performance fee options call equity investors redemption options put and prime broker contracts allowing for forced deleverage put the interaction of these option like incentives affects optimal leverage ex ante depending on the distance of fund value from the high water mark we study how these endogenous effects influence performance measures used in the literature we show that reduced form measures that do not account for these features are subject to economically significant false discovery biases the result is stronger for low quality funds we propose an alternative structural methodology for conducting performance attribution in hedge funds

dynamic portfolio choice with deferred annuities abstract we derive the optimal life cycle portfolio choice and consumption pattern for households facing uncertain labor income risky capital market and mortality risk in addition to stocks and bonds the households have access to deferred annuities deferred payout life annuities are financial contracts providing life long income to the annuitant after a specified period of time conditional on survival we find that deferred annuities play an important role in household portfolios and generate significant welfare gains households with high benefits from state pensions moderate risk aversion and moderate labor income risk purchase deferred annuities from age 40 and gradually increase their portfolio share at retirement deferred annuities account for 78 of total financial wealth households with low state pensions and high labor income risk purchase more annuities and earlier uncertainty with respect to future mortality rates has the same effect i e household hedge against longevity risks using deferred annuities

differential information and security market equilibrium we propose a simple model of equilibrium asset pricing in which there are differences in the amounts of information available for developing inferences about the returns parame ters of alternative securities in contrast with earlier work we show that parameter uncer tainty or estimation risk can have an effect upon market equilibrium under reasonable conditions securities for which there is relatively little information are shown to have relatively higher systematic risk when that risk is properly measured ceteris paribus the initially very limited model is shown to be robust with respect to relaxation of a number of its principal assumptions we provide theoretical support for the empirical examination of at least three proxies for relative information period of listing number of security returns observations available and divergence of analyst opinion

labor supply flexibility and portfolio choice in a life cycle model abstract this paper examines the effect of the labor leisure choice on portfolio and consumption decisions over an individual s life cycle the model incorporates the fact that individuals may have considerable flexibility in varying their work effort including their choice of when to retire given this flexibility the individual simultaneously determines optimal levels of current consumption labor effort and an optimal financial investment strategy at each point in his life cycle we show that labor and investment choices are intimately related the ability to vary labor supply ex post induces the individual to assume greater risks in his investment portfolio ex ante

optimal life cycle labour supply consumption and investment the role of longevity linked assets abstract we solve in closed form the problem of an agent who maximises his inter temporal lifetime utility the agent is subject to the so called longevity risk i e his force of mortality is stochastic his utility is additively separable on leisure while working and consumption consumer s preferences belong to the hyperbolic absolute risk aversion family with a subsistence consumption level the individual optimally chooses labour supply consumption and portfolio allocation we study these optimal choices when the agent has access to a complete financial market where he can trade in longevity linked securities he can also contribute to a personal pension scheme a calibrated application shows that the optimal demand for the longevity linked assets crucially depends on the stages of the agent s life and his wage profiles this observation opens up the possibility of longevity risk transfers across individuals with heterogeneous characteristics

does home bias affect firm value evidence from holdings of mutual funds worldwide this study finds strong evidence that home bias affects firm valuation at both country and firm levels at the country level increasing the bias of domestic investors toward home equity lowers the market valuation of home equity at the firm level firm value increases as the compositions of local equities held by domestic and foreign investors tend toward the firms global market capitalization weights but decreases as their weights deviate from global weights overall the evidence is consistent with the optimal global risk sharing hypothesis that the greater risk sharing between domestic and foreign investors in international capital markets reduces the cost of capital and hence enhances market valuation

the effects of market segmentation and investor recognition on asset prices evidence from foreign stocks listing in the united states non u s firms cross listing shares on u s exchanges as american depositary receipts earn cumulative abnormal returns of 19 percent during the year before listing and an additional 1 20 percent during the listing week but incur a loss of 14 percent during the year following listing we show how these unusual share price changes are robust to changing market risk exposures and are related to an expansion of the shareholder base and to the amount of capital raised at the time of listing our tests provide support for the market segmentation hypothesis and merton s 1987 investor recognition hypothesis the globalization of u s capital markets has accelerated dramatically in the past decade increasing numbers of companies from overseas have chosen to either raise capital through global equity issues or prepare for future capital raising by way of cross listings on u s exchanges as of 1997 about 1 300 non u s companies have listed their shares for trading on the new york stock exchange nyse the american exchange amex the national association of securities dealers automation quotation nasdaq system or

intertemporal asset allocation a comparison of methods abstract this paper compares two recent monte carlo methods advocated for the computation of optimal portfolio rules the candidate methods are the approach based on monte carlo with malliavin derivatives mcmd proposed by detemple garcia and rindisbacher detemple et al 2003 a monte carlo method for optimal portfolios journal of finance 58 401 406 and the approach based on monte carlo with regression mcr of brandt goyal santa clara and stroud brandt et al 2003 a simulation approach to dynamic portfolio choice with an application to learning about return predictability working paper wharton school our comparisons are carried out in the context of various intertemporal portfolio choice problems with two assets a risky asset and a riskless asset and different configurations of the state variables the specifications studied include a linear model with a single state variable admitting an exact solution and a non linear model with two state variables that requires a purely numerical resolution the accuracies of the candidate methods are compared we provide in particular efficiency plots displaying the speed accuracy trade off for various selections of the relevant simulation and discretization parameters mcmd is shown to dominate in all the settings considered

what makes an investment risky an analysis of price path characteristics abstract we examine the influence of financial asset historical price path characteristics on investors risk perception return beliefs and investment propensity to that end we run a series of survey experiments in which we present various price patterns to individuals with vested interest in financial matters our findings reveal that price paths with identical daily and monthly returns and consequently identical return standard deviation can lead to substantially different risk perception by investors indicating that historical volatility is insufficient to explain risk perception salient features such as highs lows and crashes are the most influential drivers of perceived risk in price paths return forecasts are primarily driven by past overall returns and the most recent price developments perceived risk and return beliefs strongly predict investment propensity

product differentiation search costs and competition in the mutual fund industry a case study of s p 500 index funds we investigate the role that non portfolio fund differentiation and information search frictions play in creating two salient features of the mutual fund industry the large number of funds and the sizeable dispersion in fund fees in a case study we find that despite the financial homogeneity of s p 500 index funds this sector exhibits the fund proliferation and fee dispersion observed in the broader industry we show how extra portfolio mechanisms explain these features these mechanisms also suggest an explanation for the puzzling late 1990s shift in sector assets to more expensive and often newly entered funds an influx of highinformation cost novice investors

how price path characteristics shape investment behavior abstract price paths are often the only graphical representation of financial products investors receive before making an investment decision we argue that price paths serve as graphical frames that influence the perceived attractiveness of an asset by highlighting specific asset characteristics in a controlled lab experiment we find that price paths have an impact on investment decisions in a regression we test a simple model relating the perception of price path shapes to several heuristics these heuristics are focusing on more recent outcomes deriving implicit reference prices from focal prices focusing on losses and estimating risk from the amplitude of the path we conclude that investment decisions are systematically biased due to the shape of an asset s price path

the role of life insurance in an emerging economy human capital protection assets allocation and social interaction abstract in this paper we provide micro econometric evidence on the determinants of life insurance demand in china the largest emerging market in the world we employ the china household income project chip dataset for the year 2002 in the analysis the timing is ideal because of the nature of the less well developed capital markets and social security systems in china in 2002 which sets a suitable stage to study the insurance demand behavior of emerging markets the results indicate that both the human capital protection motive and the asset allocation motive are important in explaining the purchase of life insurance in china in addition we present three empirical regularities 1 the positive correlation between the returns to human capital and the returns to market portfolio decrease the demand for life insurance 2 both the current wealth and future income of a household exert curvilinear impacts on life insurance demand 3 the breadth of a households social connections has substantial impacts on life insurance demand

more possessions more worry abstract a common wisdom asserts that the wider the universe of assets to choose from the greater the investor s welfare we show that this is not the case in practice where parameters have to be estimated even when the estimates are unbiased surprisingly risk aversion plays a crucial role corresponding to the desirability of asset expansion by dividing investors in three groups investors with very low risk tolerance and investors with very high risk tolerance are better off with asset expansion and investors with moderate risk tolerance are worse off despite the option to refrain from investing in the additional asset