short selling and the price discovery process we show that stock prices are more accurate when short sellers are more active first in a large panel of nyse listed stocks intraday informational efficiency of prices improves with greater shorting flow second at monthly and annual horizons more shorting flow accelerates the incorporation of public information into prices third greater shorting flow reduces post earnings announcement drift for negative earnings surprises fourth short sellers change their trading around extreme return events in a way that aids price discovery and reduces divergence from fundamental values these results are robust to various econometric specifications and their magnitude is economically meaningful the author 2012 published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies all rights reserved for permissions please e mail journals permissions oup com oxford university press

the crowding hypothesis and comparable worth although women s pay and occupational distribution have improved during the past few years it is still true that women earn considerably less than men and that their occupational distribution is substantially different because progress has been slow toward equality in the labor market some have called for a comparable worth policy proponents of this approach argue that occupational segregation contributes to the earnings disparity between women and men one theoretical justification for this position is the crowding hypothesis this paper first explains this theory and presents a method used to test its principal hypothesis it then describes an extension of this design for estimating the phenomenon that comparable worth policies address empirical studies conducted in this area are viewed and new findings are presented finally limitations of this analysis are discussed i introduction

gender differences in training capital and wages this paper constructs an equilibrium job matching model where workers differ in their attachment to the labor force the model predicts that workers with weaker attachment to the labor market will receive lower starting wages and lower post training wages and will be placed in jobs that offer less training and use less capital the implications of the model for gender differences in pay and job assignment are tested with the eopp data set ourfindings suggest that while training intensity during the first three months of employment is similar in positions filled by males and females females are employed in positions that have a shorter duration of on the job training and that use less capital these differences in on the job training and capital in positions filled by men and women as well as a lower market value for women s prior labor market experience account for a substantial part of the gap in wages between males and females

stock market returns and inflation evidence from other countries this paper investigates the relation between common stock returns and inflation in twenty six countries for the postwar period our results do not support the fisher hypothesis which states that real rates of return on common stocks and expected inflation rates are independent and that nominal stock returns vary in one to one correspondence with expected inflation there is a consistent lack of positive relation between stock returns and inflation in most of the countries

does anticipated aggregate demand policy matter further econometric results a heated debate has arisen over what modigliani has dubbed the macro rational expections mre hypothesis this hypothesis embodies two component hypotheses 1 rational expectations and 2 short run neutrality i e that anticipated changes in aggregate demand will have already been taken into account in economic agents behavior and will thus evoke no output or employment response together these component hypotheses imply that deterministic feedback policy rules will have no effect on business cycle fluctuations the irrelevance of these types of policy rules is inconsistent with much previous macro theorizing as well as with the views of policymakers it is thus an extremely controversial proposition which requires a wide range of empirical research this paper is a sequel to a previous paper by the author that paper developed a methodology for testing the mre hypothesis and found that anticipated money growth does matter to the business cycle this paper extends the analyses to cases where the rate of nominal gnp growth or the inflation rate rather than money growth is the aggregate demand variable the empirical results are also negative on the mre hypothesis and its corresponding policy ineffectiveness proposition this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

intertemporal market effect on gender earnings differentials lawyers in canada 1970 80 the conventional methodology for decomposition of cross sectional earnings differentials is extended to include a market effect on intertemporal changes in earnings and to analyse the changes in gender differentials over time the integrated cross sectional and intertemporal methodology is illustrated by a decomposition of the change in the earnings differential that occurred during the 1970s between male and female lawyers in canada an unprecedented rate of growth in the supply of lawyers during the 1970s in canada was associated with changes in the gender earnings differential in the legal profession this rapid supply growth had an almost negligible net impact on female earnings but a negative impact of 15 on the male earnings this explains the narrowing of the earnings differential by almost 30 over the decade although three fifths of the gender differential in 1970 and half of the differential in 1980 were attributable to the differences in the characteristics of the two groups these chang

up close and personal investor sophistication and the disposition effect this paper analyzes the trading records of a major discount brokerage house to investigate the disposition effect the tendency to sell stocks that have appreciated in price winners sooner than stocks that trade below the purchase price losers in contrast to previous research that has demonstrated the disposition effect by aggregating across investors our main objective is to identify differences in the disposition bias across individuals and explain this in terms of underlying investor characteristics building on the findings in experimental economics and social psychology we hypothesize that differences in investor literacy about financial markets and trading frequency are responsible in part for the variation in individual disposition effect using demographic and socioeconomic variables as proxies for investor literacy we find empirical evidence that wealthier individuals and individuals employed in professional occupations exhibit a lower disposition effect consistent with experimental economics trading frequency also tends to reduce the disposition effect we provide guidelines for investment advisors regulators and investment communities to utilize our findings and help investors make better decisions

discrimination empirical evidence from the united states the study of discrimination received a major impetus in the 1960 s when increasing social attention focused upon race and gender differentials in market outcomes gary becker s the economics of discrimination 1957 strongly influenced empirical research by providing a definition of wage discrimination and suggesting a specific way in which it might operate during the following years new theories were developed and refined in an attempt to explain why there appears to be continued discrimination in spite of market forces presumably operating against it similarly a large amount of empirical work has been done to determine whether and how much discrimination actually exists and to a lesser extent to test the implications of the various theories even so the hope expressed by becker in the preface of the second edition 1971 that our understanding of discrimination would increase so rapidly that the materials in his book would become obsolete before another decade began has clearly not been fulfilled here we review what has been learned in the intervening years and suggest some fruitful directions for future research 1 the focus of this paper like that of most of the empirical research in this area is on determining the extent of discrimination rather than on testing alternative models of discrimination

the trend in the male female wage gap in the united states despite the rise in the feminist movement the enactment of equal opportunity legislation and the rapid increase in women s labor force participation a substantial sex differential in wages has persisted in the united states for at least 4 decades measured by hourly earnings of year round workers this wage gap was 31 in 1955 widened to a 35 37 range by the 1960s and early 1970s and then narrowed to 33 by 1982 this paper examines the extent to which changes in the characteristics of men and women in the labor force and other factors can account for the observed pattern the main finding is that increases in women s labor force participation were initially associated with a declining skill level of employed women relative to employed men where skill is measured by years of schooling and job tenure more recently the work experience of employed women has been increasing which helps account for the recent narrowing trend in the wage gap during the 1970s the wage gap probably woul have narrowed m

can t buy me love a field experiment exploring the trade off between income and caste status in an indian matrimonial market i introduction the relationship between economic motive and observance of discriminatory social customs is hardly new to economists this is implicit in the writings of becker 1957 1973 1974 on discrimination and other social customs and explicit in arrow s essay 1972 on discrimination and akerlof s work 1980 on the interactive relationship between economic incentives and discriminatory social customs as scholars like becker arrow and akerlof have investigated the relationship between economic incentives and the prevalence of custom based discrimination of which status based discrimination is an example it is natural to consult the related empirical evidence on the impact of economic incentives on the extent of status based discrimination surprisingly the extant empirical literature is mostly silent on how economic incentives may directly interact with status based discrimination 1 this is atypical as one would be hard pressed to find an issue as weighty as status based discrimination yet our knowledge in this aspect remains oddly limited our study aspires to rectify this gap this study investigates whether and what magnitude of economic incentive can diminish the incidence of status based discrimination by designing a controlled field experiment in an actual marketplace a reputable arranged marriage market that is conducted via newspaper advertisements the existing literature suggests that this market might be especially prone to strong discriminatory mate selection behavior based on the social identity status of an individual where caste identity of an individual is an easily measured indicator of social status the genesis of this discrimination can be attributed to a high status female s concern for a decline in her social status if she engages in a marital relationship with a low status male against this backdrop we ask whether a low status male could attempt to weaken this enduring form of discrimination by providing systematic economic incentive in the form of high monthly groom incomes to a high status female so that the former s marriage proposal receives preliminary consideration by the latter conditional on both individuals participation in this market the marketplace that we utilize is a well functioning arranged marriage market conducted via matrimonial advertisements in a widely circulated bengali language newspaper marriageable males in this market typically advertise their caste and income information among other attributes after these advertisements appear in the newspaper interested families contact the advertiser mostly in form of detailed letters expressing their interest in that advertisement this provides a confidential and reliable measure of first intent of the interested party in this case females therefore the conjunction of an exceptionally strong status based mate selection behavior a reputed market for arranged marriages and an exclusive correspondence process furnish us with a unique opportunity to investigate the main research hypothesis of our study to the best of our knowledge this is the first field experiment that exclusively focuses on how economic incentives can influence status based discrimination in an actual market 2 to operationalize the experiment we create nine unique matrimonial advertisements each representing a fictitious groom type 3 these potential grooms belong to one of the three blocks where each block contains three grooms from a given caste group we vary the caste status across these blocks we consider three different caste groups high middle and low strictly ranked so in the study region we vary the income features of grooms within a block we consider three different monthly income levels i e high medium and low that are considered feasible for each caste group in the study region furthermore we randomly assign other characteristics relevant for this market to all the potential grooms so that these features on average do not affect the behavior of responders

trends in earnings differentials by gender 1971 1981 this paper clarifies trends in relative earnings by sex over the decade 1971 1981 and decomposes these trends to determine which factors contributed to a decline and which to an increase our analyses are based upon data from the annual demographic files of the current population survey for 1972 and 1982 this study is unique in that it estimates earnings functions in each year which are corrected for selectivity bias it is found that such a correction markedly raises the progress of white women relative to men among blacks the impact of the selectivity bias correction was to substantially lower the relative earnings increase of women however the coefficients on the selectivity variable were not significant the findings suggest declining sex role specialization and discrimination as conventionally measured over the decade on the other hand contrary to expectations the total effect of variables reflecting the sex composition of the individuals occupation worked to widen the sex differential over the period the sex differential was also adversely affected by a decline in the relative return to education especially for whites authors modified

are emily and greg more employable than lakisha and jamal a field experiment on labor market discrimination we study race in the labor market by sending fictitious resumes to help wanted ads in boston and chicago newspapers to manipulate perceived race resumes are randomly assigned african american or white sounding names white names receive 50 percent more callbacks for interviews callbacks are also more responsive to resume quality for white names than for african american ones the racial gap is uniform across occupation industry and employer size we also find little evidence that employers are inferring social class from the names differential treatment by race still appears to still be prominent in the u s labor market jel j71 j64

the relation between stock prices and inflationary expectations the international evidence this paper provides empirical evidence on the relation between stock returns and inflationary expectations for nine countries over the period 1971 80 the fisherian assumption that real returns are independent of inflationary expectations is soundly rejected for each major stock market of the world using interest rates as a proxy for expected inflation our data provide consistent support for the geske and roll model whose basic hypothesis is that stock price movements signal negative revisions in inflationary expectations finally a weak real interest rate effect was found for some of these countries

the human capital approach to black white earnings inequality some unsettled questions the persistence of earnings differences between blacks and whites in the united states has been a topic that has received a substantial amount of attention in both theoretical and empirical research in economics the differential in earnings typically is tied to racial differences in human capital accumulation this paper advances a systematic critique of the human capital approach to black white inequality inadequacies are identified in human capital theory as a general theory of inequality as well as a specific theory of racial inequality the critique suggests that a serious analysis of the black white earnings gap will require an entirely new approach to the study of racial income inequality

do individual short sellers make money evidence from korea abstract we use a proprietary trade and account level dataset of short sales to investigate the profitability of individual investors short selling in the korean stock market from august 1 2007 to may 31 2010 using actual data on short covering transactions we find that the average profit is 26 810 korean won roughly usd 24 4 per trade per hour and about 44 of shorted trades are covered within a day we also find that the profitability of short selling decreases as the hours to cover increases account level analyses show that investors who sell short more firms make higher profits than those who sell short fewer firms and that the profitability of short selling is persistent we attribute the profitability to short sellers ability to exploit short run price reversals and information processing skills

inflation output and money this paper uses money demand theory and a rational expectations version of the quantity theory of money to study inflation in the united states during the post korean war period the major results are as follows 1 the theory and tests explain the phenomenon of stagflation that is the negative relation between inflation and real activity observed during the post 1953 period the analysis calls into question the many variants of the phillips curve which presume that inflation real activity relations are positive 2 consistent with the models of patinkin 1961 and fama 1980 monthly quarterly and annual data indicate that the base currency plus reserves held against deposits is the relevant monetary variable in the inflation process and that demand deposits are irrelevant the direct policy implication is that the base is the key monetary variable in the control of inflation 3 the most convincing evidence for the simple quantity theory view of inflation proposed here comes from the comparison of the conditional exmoney demand theory and the quantity theory of money are used to study the inflation process as predicted by the model monthly quarterly and annual data indicate that inflation is positively related to money growth rates and negatively related to growth rates of real activity the theoretical and empirical origins of stagflation are explained and changes in monetary arrangements to simplify the control of inflation are prescribed

common stock returns real activity money and inflation some international evidence abstract this paper tests whether the negative relationship between real stock returns and inflation in the united states is in fact proxying for a positive relationship between stock returns and real activity variables in six major industrial countries over 1966 1979 consistent with fama s proxy effect hypothesis we document a negative relationship between inflation and real activity and a positive one between real stock returns and real activity variables real activity variables dominate money growth rates and expected and unexpected inflation in explaining real stock returns a puzzling result that still remains is the positive role of money and the negative role of expected inflation in explaining these real stock returns in all major industrial countries

inflation real returns and capital investment we find evidence for the hypothesis of mundell 1963 and tobin 1965 that the expected real return component of interest rates is negatively related to the expected inflation component in the mundell tobin model the variation in expected real returns is caused by the variation in expected inflation our evidence suggests however that the variation in expected real returns is more fundamentally an outcome of the capital expenditures process equilibrium expected real returns vary directly with capital expenditures in order to induce equilibrium allocations of resources between consumption and investment this positive relation between expected real returns and real activity which comes out of the real sector combines with a negative relation between expected inflation and real activity which is traced to the monetary sector thus inducing the negative relation between expected inflation and expected real returns predicted by mundell and tobin but explained in terms of a model much different from theirs

monetary policy and short term interest rates an efficient markets rational expectations approach this paper is an application of efficient markets rational expectations theory to analyze empirically the relationship of money supply growth and short term interest rates a hotly debated issue in the literature this approach has the advantage over earlier research on this subject in that it imposes a theoretical structure that allows easier interpretation of the empirical results as well as more powerful statistical tests the empirical results uniformly do not support the proposition that increases in money growth are correlated with declines in short rates the relationship between money supply growth and nominal interest rates is a hotly debated issue in the literature one view associated with keynesian structural macromodels has an increase in money growth leading at least in the short and medium runs to a decline in interest rates 2 an alternative view associated with milton friedman 6 7 indicates that interest rates might rise in response to higher money growth because there is a rise in inflationary expectations and hence a rise in interest rates through a fisher 5 effect

daily momentum and contrarian behavior of index fund investors we use a two year panel of individual accounts in an s p 500 index mutual fund to examine the trading and investment behavior of more than 91 000 investors who have chosen a low cost passively managed vehicle for savings we identify classes of momentum investors and contrarian investors we use these classes to build up behavioral factors based on contrarian and momentum flows and we show that they are relevant for pricing they perform well against a benchmark of loadings on latent factors extracted from returns

should asean 5 monetary policy makers act pre emptively against stock market bubbles stock market rises and asset price inflation in asean economies have raised the question of whether monetary authorities in these economies should act pre emptively against these rising trends to prevent impending financial crises using structural vector error correction models svecms which incorporate mixed data characteristics we examine the effects and interactions between monetary policy and stock market shocks for singapore malaysia thailand indonesia and the philippines the results suggest that monetary policy focused on the stock market detracts from price stability objectives in particular because containing a stock market bubble may inadvertently depress output and inflation

field experiments of discrimination in the market place controlled experiments using matched pairs of bogus transactors to test for discrimination in the marketplace have been conducted for over 30 years and have extended across 10 countries significant persistent and pervasive levels of discrimination have been found against non whites and women in labour housing and product markets rates of employment discrimination against non whites in excess of 25 have been measured in australia europe and north america a small number of experiments have also investigated employment discrimination against the disabled in britain and the netherlands and against older applicants in the united states

short interest explanations and tests cross sectional and time series tests are performed to explain levels and changes in short interest explanatory variables and tests are chosen based on tax arbitrage and speculative reasons for going short short interest is found to follow a seasonal pattern that is weakly consistent with tax based trading stocks with high betas and the existence of convertible securities or options tend to have higher levels of short interest which is con sistent with arbitrage efforts for firms with traded options there is a positive association between the month to month changes in option open interest and short interest prior months returns and changes in short interest are positively related but there is no rela tionship between changes in short interest and returns in the subsequent month

the short selling skill of institutions and individuals abstract using market wide data from the brazilian stock lending market at the deal level we find strong evidence of short selling skill for institutions and individuals skilled short sellers present out of sample performance persistence exploring the granularity of our dataset we find that skilled short sellers do not display the disposition effect are more likely to pick value liquid high volatility and losing stocks and to initiate a short position before earnings announcements and around sell recommendations

an examination of the relationship between australian industry equity returns and expected inflation this paper analyses the relationship between inflation and equity returns in australia over the period january 1974 to march 1996 analysis is based on monthly and quarterly data using value weighted equity indices at both the aggregate market and industry level three price indices the consumer price index cpi quarterly and the manufactured materials used index mmu and the manufacturing articles produced index map both monthly and quarterly are used to measure inflation results provide little evidence of the statistically significant negative relationship observed in the us for the full study period analysis is also conducted on three subperiods monetary targeting july 1976 january 1985 checklist approach february 1985 december 1989 and anti inflation january 1990 march 1996 at the market level the anti inflation subperiod does provide some evidence of a negative relationship between inflation and equity returns though statistical significance is not apparent with quarterly tim

real dollar exchange rate under the bretton woods and floating exchange rate regimes abstract the focus of the paper is on real exchange rates for the dollar over the period 1957 to 1985 most such exchange rates followed an almost steplike pattern showing relatively little movement in the late 1950s and 1960s falling abruptly and then remaining low in the 1970s and finally in the 1980s rising back to levels close to those that prevailed initially contrary to much recent commentary therefore the period that appears different is not the last five years but the decade that preceded them an important factor underlying this pattern of exchange rate movement according to results presented in the paper was the behavior of monetary policy and hence inflation in the united states what remains to be established is the precise mechanism linking money and real exchange rates and the relative strength of those links

incorporating the causes of occupational differences in studies of racial wage differentials this study provides a basic framework for incorporating the causes of occupational differences into analyses of racial wage differentials separating the influences of personal characteristics occupational choice and hiring discrimination on occupational attainment provides measures of the contributions of each to the racial pay gap the paper also considers the potential for bias in the wage equation estimates arising from self selection into occupations there are two generalfindings first correcting for self selection increases the importance of occupational distribution in explaining racial wage differentials second a proper accounting of the causes of these occupational differences yields discrimination measures that are higher than those that arise when occupational dummy variables are included in the wage equations and all the difference in occupational distribution is treated as nondiscriminatory

using financial prices to test exchange rate models a note the purpose of this note is to illustrate how tests of exchange rate models can be conducted using financial prices rather than macroeconomic data all empirical tests of exchange rate models have met with limited success so far a major problem encountered is the poor quality of the macroeconomic data used most of the data suffer from large measurement error or cannot even be measured directly for example these models often require measures of changes in expected real activity or in monetary policy such variables can only be poorly estimated from time series models on industrial production or money supply the innovation in this paper is to use financial prices such as stock prices instead of the traditional macroeconomic data there exists convincing empirical evidence that stock returns forecast changes in economic activity as measured by industrial production real growth in gnp employment rate or corporate profits fama 5 and geske and roll 8 in the domestic context stock prices have been used to test the relation between economic activity and inflation e g fama 5 geske and roll 8 and solnik 12 in the same spirit stock returns are used in this paper as proxies for changes in economic activity to test the relation between exchange rates and economic activity interest rates are determined by monetary policies and changes in interest rates are used in this article as indicators of monetary shocks the approach used is introduced in section i while the empirical results are presented in section ii the data cover the eight major western countries over the recent period of flexible exchange rates july 1973 to december 1983

testing for racial discrimination in the labour market racial discrimination in selection for job interview was measured directly by the experimental technique of corresponding testing carefully matched pairs of written job applications were sent in response to advertised vacancies in victoria a state of australia one letter was from an applicant with an anglo celtic name and the other was from an applicant with a greek or vietnamese name statistically significant discrimination was found against both vietnamese named and greek named applicants there was no relationship between the incidence of discrimination and the competitive structure of the employer s product market copyright 1991 by oxford university press

two illustrations of the quantity theory of money of two central implications of the quantity theory of money that a given change in the rate of change in the quantity of money induces i an equal change in the rate of price inflation and ii an equal change in nominal rates of interest the illustrations were obtained by comparing moving averages of the three variables in question using quarterly u s time series for the period 1953 77 readers may find the results of interest as additional confirmation of the quantity theory as an example of one way in which the quantity theoretic relationships can be uncovered via atheoretical methods from time series which are subject to a variety of other forces or as a measure of the extent to which the inflation and interest rate experience of the postwar period can be understood in terms of purely classical monetary forces the theoretical background of the study is reviewed very briefly as it is familiar material in the next section the data processing methods are described and rationalized in section ii the illustrations

does drug use lower wages this study using microdata from the 1980 and 1984 waves of the national longitudinal survey of youth examines the effects of drug use on wages and employment contrary to most previous researcher