smallholder market participation concepts and evidence from eastern and southern africa abstract this paper reviews the evidence on smallholder market participation with a focus on staple foodgrains i e cereals in eastern and southern africa in an effort to help better identify what interventions are most likely to break smallholders out of the semi subsistence poverty trap that appears to ensnare much of rural africa the conceptual and empirical evidence suggests that interventions aimed at facilitating smallholder organization at reducing the costs of intermarket commerce and perhaps especially at improving poorer households access to improved technologies and productive assets are central to stimulating smallholder market participation and escape from semi subsistence poverty traps macroeconomic and trade policy tools appear less useful in inducing market participation by poor smallholders in the region

multiple experiments for the causal link between the quantity and quality of children this article presents evidence on the child quantity child quality trade off using quasi experimental variation due to twin births and preferences for a mixed sibling sex composition as well as ethnic differences in the effects of these variables our sample includes groups with very high fertility an innovation in our econometric approach is the juxtaposition of results from multiple instrumental variables strategies capturing the effects of fertility over different ranges for different sorts of people to increase precision we develop an estimator that combines different instrument sets across partially overlapping parity specific subsamples our results are remarkably consistent in showing no evidence of a quantity quality trade off

the gender gap fertility and growth changes in fertility have long been recognized as important correlates of economic growth with the relationship between the level of fertility and the level of income per capita being one of the strongest observable correlations in cross country data this paper examines the linkages between fertility and growth theory the structure of the model is presented in sections on production couples decision making system dynamics and steady state equilibria the first component of the model is that increases in capital per worker raise womens relative wages since capital is more complementary to womens labor input than to mens the second component is that increasing womens relative wages reduces fertility by raising the cost of children more than household income finally lower fertility raises the level of capital per worker a positive feedback loop generates demographic transition a rapid decline in fertility accompanied by accelerated output growth

the ethiopian commodity exchange and spatial price dispersion abstract in this article we study the impact of an institutional intervention on market efficiency in ethiopia more specifically we analyze to what extent the ethiopian commodity exchange ecx in combination with regional warehouses have contributed to a reduction in price spreads between regional markets our hypothesis is that warehouses connected to the ecx reduce the dispersion between export prices and local retail prices in different coffee growing areas as well as the dispersion between export prices and local retail prices in different coffee growing areas by doing so the ecx has the potential to improve the market efficiency to identify the causal effect we combine retail price data with information on the gradual rollout of warehouses connected to the ecx from 2007 to 2012 our results suggest that when two markets both have access to an operating warehouse the average price spread is 0 86 1 78 etb lower than it is for markets where at least one part lacks warehouse access this is a substantial reduction considering that the average price spread over the full period is 3 33 etb the main results are robust to various econometric specifications and our analysis thus suggests that local warehouses connected to the ecx have indeed improved market efficiency

how do sex ratios affect marriage and labor markets evidence from america s second generation sex ratios i e relative numbers of men and women can affect marriage prospects labor force participation and other social and economic variables but the observed association between sex ratios and social and economic conditions may be confounded by omitted variables and reverse causality this paper uses variation in immigrant flows as a natural experiment to study the effect of sex ratios on the children and grandchildren of immigrants the flow of immigrants affected the second generation marriage market because second generation marriages were mostly endogamous i e to members of the same ethnic group the empirical results suggest that high sex ratios had a large positive effect on the likelihood of female marriage and a large negative effect on female labor force participation perhaps surprisingly the marriage rates of second generation men appear to be a slightly increasing function of immigrant sex ratios higher sex ratios also appear to have raised male earnings and the incomes of parents with young children the empirical results are broadly consistent with theories where higher sex ratios increase female bargaining power in the marriage market

who benefits from aid for trade comparing the effects on recipient versus donor exports recent studies offer an ambiguous picture on the effectiveness of foreign aid in strengthening the export capacity of recipient countries moreover the literature on aid for trade aft has often neglected that exporters in the donor countries may be among the main beneficiaries we hypothesize that aft is as much in the self interest of donor countries as it may have promoted the exports of recipient countries we simultaneously estimate and compare the effects of aft on trade in both directions we find that aft increases recipient exports to donors as well as recipient imports from donors the first effect tends to dominate the latter which contradicts the skeptical view that donors grant aft primarily to promote their own export interests

cooperative membership and dairy performance among smallholders in ethiopia this study assesses the impact of cooperative membership among dairy producers in selale ethiopia we selected ten impact indicators proportion of dairy income to total household income total dairy income proportion of crossbreed cows to the total number of cows in the herd indicator of technological innovation amount of feed bought another indicator of technological innovation milk production milk productivity commercialization price per liter of milk price per kg of butter and the share of milk production that is processed at the household level in order to minimize the biases that may arise by simply comparing members and non members we employed a propensity score matching technique the empirical analysis shows that cooperatives are strong in facilitating technological transformations and commercialization but weak in offering better prices these findings suggest structural trade offs between different domains of cooperatives action overall our study concludes that cooperatives can be efficient business institutions to foster rural development and food security

consumption inequality and intra household allocations the current literature on consumption inequality treats all adults within the household equally making the implicit assumption that all consumption inequality is between not within households however increased marital sorting on earnings and the subsequent rise in the share of women s income in the household may have important implications for consumption inequality measured at the individual level we use an extension of the collective framework of chiappori to estimate a rule for assigning resources to individual household members we then construct a measure of individual level inequality by looking at implied changes in intra household allocations and explore the implications of our framework for the measurement of individual level versus household level consumption inequality our analysis which is based on households comprising one or two adults suggests that the conventional approach of ignoring intra household allocations underestimates the level of cross sectional consumption inequality by 30 and overstates the trend by two thirds our findings also indicate that increases in marital sorting on wages and hours worked can simultaneously explain virtually all of the decline in within household inequality and a substantial fraction of the rise in between household inequality in the uk since the 1970s

risk and insurance in a rural credit market an empirical investigation in northern nigeria credit contracts play a direct role in pooling risk between households in northern nigeria repayments owed by borrowers depend on realizations of random shocks by both borrowers and lenders the paper develops two models of state contingent loans the first is a competitive equilibrium in perfectly enforceable contracts the second permits imperfect information and equilibrium default estimates of both models indicate that quantitatively important state contingent payments are embedded in these loan transactions but that a fully efficient risk pooling equilibrium is not achieved the research is based on a year long survey in zaria nigeria conducted by the author

linking smallholders to markets determinants and impacts of farmer collective action in kenya summary this article investigates determinants and impacts of cooperative organization using the example of smallholder banana farmers in kenya farmer groups are inclusive of the poor although wealthier households are more likely to join employing propensity score matching we find positive income effects for active group members yet price advantages of collective marketing are small and high value market potentials have not yet been tapped beyond prices farmer groups function as important catalysts for innovation adoption through promoting efficient information flows we discuss the conditions under which collective action is useful and through what mechanisms the potential benefits emerge

the formation of risk sharing networks this paper examines the formation of risk sharing networks in the rural philippines we find that geographic proximity possibly correlated with kinship is a major determinant of mutual insurance links among villagers age and wealth differences also play an important role in contrast income correlation and differences in occupation are not determinants of network links reported network links have a strong effect on subsequent gifts and loans gifts between network partners are found to respond to shocks and to differences in health status from this we conclude that intra village mutual insurance links are largely determined by social and geographical proximity and are only weakly the result of purposeful diversification of income risk the paper also makes a methodological contribution to the estimation of dyadic models

estimating consumption economies of scale adult equivalence scales and household bargaining power how much income would a woman living alone require to attain the same standard of living that she would have if she were married what percentage of a married couple s expenditures are controlled by the husband how much money does a couple save on consumption goods by living together versus living apart we propose and estimate a collective model of household behaviour that permits identification and estimation of concepts such as these we model households in terms of the utility functions of its members a bargaining or social welfare function and a consumption technology function we demonstrate generic non parametric identification of the model and hence of a version of adult equivalence scales that we call indifference scales as well as consumption economies of scale the household s resource sharing rule or members bargaining power and other related concepts copyright 2013 oxford university press

estimating policy effects on spatial market efficiency an extension to the parity bounds model the standard parity bounds model pbm is extended to allow for dynamic shifts in regime probabilities in response to changes in marketing policy the approach allows estimation of the length of the adjustment period and a statistical test for no policy effects the extended pbm is applied to maize and wheat markets in ethiopia evidence of a dynamic adjustment path is found and grain marketing reforms are found to have improved spatial efficiency in a few markets worsened it in a few others but generally to have had little effect on the spatial efficiency of ethiopian grain markets

aid and trade a donor s perspective abstract one reason donors provide foreign aid is to support their exports to aid recipient countries time series data for germany suggests an average return of between us 1 04 1 50 for each us dollar of aid spent by germany although this is well below previous estimates the value is robust to different specifications and econometric approaches interestingly we find strong evidence of crowding out between bilateral donors in the sense that bilateral aid from other eu members significantly reduces exports from germany to the recipients the evidence suggests that in the long run aid causes exports and not vice versa we discuss the implications these findings might have for aid volumes and allocation

econometric estimation of producers risk attitudes general methods are proposed for the identification and econometric estimation of the parameters of the distribution of risk attitudes in a producer population the proposed methods also provide the basis for the development of statistical tests of model specification and of behavioral hypotheses econometric risk attitude estimation is shown to be possible under less restrictive conditions than previously believed a moment based version of the general model is applied to indian data and the econometrically estimated risk attitudes are presented and compared to experimental results for a similar group of producers

wealth weather risk and the composition and profitability of agricultural investments despite the growing evidence that farmers in low income environments are risk averse there has been little empirical evidence on the importance of risk in shaping the actual allocation of production resources among farmers differentiated by wealth the authors use panel data on investments in rural india to examine how the composition of productive and nonproductive asset holdings varies across farmers with different levels of total wealth and across farmers facing different degrees of weather risk income variability is a prominent feature of the experience of rural agents in low income countries the authors report evidence based on measures of rainfall variability that the agricultural investment portfolio behavior of farmers in such settings reflects risk aversion due evidently to limitations on consumption soothing mechanisms such as crop insurance or credit markets the authors results suggest that uninsured weather risk is a significant cause of lower efficiency and lower average incomes a one standard deviation decrease in weather risk measured by the standard deviation of the timing of the rainy season would raise average profits by up to 35 percent among farmers in the lowest wealth quartile moreover rainfall variability induces a more unequal distribution of average incomes for a given distribution of wealth wealthier farmers are willing to absorb significant risk without giving up profits to reduce production risk smaller farmers have to invest their limited wealth in ways that reduce their exposure to risk at the cost of lower profit rates the authors found that at high levels of rainfall variability differences in rates of profit per unit of agricultural assets were similar across classes of wealth but over the sample range of rainfall variability these rates of profit were always higher for the poorer farmers than for the wealthier ones suggesting that the disadvantages of small farmers in risk diffusion are more than offset by their labor cost advantage

contraception as development new evidence from family planning in colombia there has been considerable debate in the last decade about whether or not family planning programmes in developing countries reduce fertility or improve socio economic outcomes this article provides new evidence by studying the expansion of one of the worlds oldest and largest family planning organisations profamilia of colombia it finds that family planning explains less than 10 of colombias fertility decline during its demographic transition as in wealthy countries however lowering the costs of first birth postponement produced important socio economic gains enabling young women to obtain more education and to work more and live independently later in life

the long run impact of cash transfers to poor families lleras muney we estimate the long run impact of cash transfers to poor families on children s longevity educational attainment nutritional status and income in adulthood to do so we collected individual level administrative records of applicants to the mothers pension program the first government sponsored welfare program in the united states 1911 1935 and matched them to census wwii and death records male children of accepted applicants lived one year longer than those of rejected mothers they also obtained onethird more years of schooling were less likely to be underweight and had higher income in adulthood than children of rejected mothers jel i12 i14 i18 i32 i38 j16 n32

stabilizing food markets in eastern and southern africa a major challenge for agricultural policy in africa is how to address the market instability related causes of low farm productivity and food insecurity this paper highlights structural changes affecting the behavior of food markets in eastern and southern africa and discusses their implications for the design of strategies to stabilize food prices these changes include 1 an increasing trend in maize prices toward import parity levels reflecting an emerging structural maize deficit in much of the region 2 increasingly diversified food consumption patterns in both rural and urban areas 3 highly concentrated marketed maize surplus which have largely unrecognized implications for the magnitude of price risk faced by most farm households and 4 the strategic interactions between private and public marketing actors leading in some cases to heightened market instability and food crises in the prevailing dual market environment now characterizing most of the region greater coordination transparency and consultation between private and public market actors is needed to achieve reasonable levels of food price stability and predictability

estimating the benefit incidence of an antipoverty program by propensity score matching this brief summarizes the results of a gender impact evaluation study entitled estimating the benefit incidence of an antipoverty program by propensity score matching conducted between 1997 and 1998 in argentina the study observed that the average direct gain to the participant is found to be about half the gross wage over half of the beneficiaries are in the poorest decile nationally and 80 percent are in the poorest quintile the propensity score matching psm estimator is reasonably robust to a number of changes in methodology participants are more likely to be poor than non participants participants are less well educated live in poorer neighborhoods and are more likely to be members of neighborhood associations and political parties average gains are similar between men and women but are higher for younger workers funding for the study derives from the world bank research committee

effects of aid for trade on extensive and intensive margins of greenfield fdi using a panel dataset of 105 developing countries for the period 2003 15 this paper assesses the effects of aid for trade aft on greenfield fdi flows to the aid recipient countries particularly this paper classifies the total dollar value of greenfield fdi flows to each recipient country in terms of four different layers the extensive and intensive margins of projects as well as the extensive and intensive margins of source countries applying the system gmm estimator this paper finds that aft not only increases the dollar value of fdi flows to the recipient countries but also helps diversify the greenfield projects and source countries in addition this paper finds that aft has a greater effect for greenfield fdi from donor developed countries than from non donor developing countries among the three components of aft aid for trade related infrastructure and aid for trade policy regulations are found to have positive links with greenfield fdi irrespective of source country groups yet their effects are larger for developed source countries in contrast aid for building productive capacity hinders greenfield fdi flows from non donor countries while it promotes greenfield fdi from donor countries we offer some explanations for this finding

import diversification along the growth path abstract we provide evidence showing that the degree of diversification of import sources of finely disaggregated commodities rises monotonically along the growth path this result is robust to different measures of import diversification and the inclusion of a large set of additional control variables in addition we show the process of rising import diversification takes place as countries gradually increase their spending shares in imports originating from relatively distant exporters

a selectivity model of household food marketing behavior in sub saharan africa the agricultural household s discrete decision of whether to participate in coarse grain markets is separated here from the continuous decision of how much to sell or buy conditional on participation failure to participate in markets results from high fixed transactions costs a selectivity model endogenously switches households into alternative market participation states correcting for bias caused by the exclusion of unobservable variables affecting both discrete and continuous decisions improved market information increases the probability of participation by sellers while access to cereals processing technology increases quantities transacted by both sellers and buyers conditional on participation

income and outcomes a structural model of intrahousehold allocation there is evidence from several sources that one cannot treat many person households as a single decision maker if this is the case then factors such as the relative incomes of the household members may affect the final allocation decisions made by the household we develop a method of identifying how incomes affect outcomes given conventional family expenditure data the basic assumption we make is that household decision processes lead to efficient outcomes we apply our method to a sample of canadian couples with no children we find that the final allocations of expenditures on each partner depend significantly on their relative incomes and ages and on the level of lifetime wealth

aid for trade and greenfield investment summary the aid for trade aft initiative was launched in 2005 at the hong kong ministerial conference where high income countries pledged to increase their aft contributions to developing countries aft comprised almost entirely of aid for trade related infrastructure and building productive capacity would promote growth by easing supply side constraints and improving transportation energy and communication infrastructure by lowering costs of operating in recipient countries aft may increase both trade and investment most research on the effects of aft on international transactions focuses on trade the sparse research on investment investigates aid and net foreign direct investment flows based on the international balance of payments we contribute to the literature by assessing aft effects on new greenfield investment using bilateral data for 25 donor and 120 recipient countries for the period 2003 13 we find that bilateral aft promotes greenfield investment our preferred specification includes bilateral and country time fixed effects and employs the poisson pseudo maximum likelihood ppml estimator robust effects emerge between the top five donors and more developed recipient countries cases where aid flows are large thus we see evidence that a critical level of aid is required to encourage greenfield investment both aid for infrastructure particularly transportation and energy and building productive capacity are found to exert strong effects to the extent that greenfield investment creates jobs and generates technology transfer it appears that aft is accomplishing its development objectives at least with regard to the more advanced recipient countries

on market integration and liberalisation method and application to ethiopia the article suggests further improvements in the methodology to analyse market integration it provides corrections to and methodological extensions of recent work in this journal it also presents a way of applying market integration techniques to the analysis of shocks such as market liberalisation and war the method is applied to the effects of liberalisation and the end of the civil war on food markets in ethiopia the conclusion is that liberalisation had important effects on the long run and short run integration of food markets

farmer groups and input access when membership is not enough this paper explores the efficiency of a targeted fertilizer subsidy program administered differently in two nigerian states in 2009 an important dimension along which the otherwise similar programs differed was the fertilizer distribution strategy fertilizer distribution among program participants was done at the individual level for one set of farmers while the fertilizer was given indirectly through a group representative for the other set where fertilizer was given to a group representative for further distribution to members relatives of the farm group s president received more bags of fertilizer than others where fertilizer was given directly to farmers such results did not obtain this differential outcome suggests that while groups may facilitate the process of farmer identification and coordination elite capture and intra group dynamics may affect their efficacy for providing equal access to inputs for members two tier models enable us to model the potentially separate processes that determine participation in the voucher program and the amount of fertilizer received upon deciding to participate with intentions to adopt and scale up voucher programs in various food security and poverty alleviation programs across developing countries it is important to understand when and how farmer groups can affect the successful implementation of such programs

the one child policy a macroeconomic analysis abstract this paper studies the effects of china s one child policy using a calibrated general equilibrium model a benchmark with a fertility constraint in place is compared to a counterfactual experiment without the fertility constraint the results indicate that the implementation of the one child policy promotes the accumulation of human capital and increases per capita output in addition the policy leads to different welfare effects across generations and skill groups the initial generation would benefit from relaxing the one child policy but the following generations would be hurt a redistribution effect between skilled and unskilled workers is also observed these findings demonstrate that focusing solely on gdp per capita as a measure of economic well being paints an incomplete picture of the welfare consequences of population policies

the perceived returns to education and the demand for schooling economists emphasize the link between market returns to education and investments in schooling though many studies estimate these returns with earnings data it is the perceived returns that affect schooling decisions and these perceptions may be inaccurate using survey data for eighth grade boys in the dominican republic we find that the perceived returns to secondary school are extremely low despite high measured returns students at randomly selected schools given information on the higher measured returns completed on average 0 20 0 35 more years of school over the next four years than those who were not

the role of rural producer organizations for agricultural service provision in fragile states this article assesses the extent of external linkages and the provision of agricultural services by rural producer organizations in a post conflict setting using new survey data collected by the international food policy research institute in three provinces of the democratic republic of the congo this study finds that various internal and external factors affect the capacity of organizations to interact with external organizations external linkages ability to collect financial support from their members management capacity and formal governance structures all contribute to explaining relative performance in agricultural service delivery we also find that exogenous events affect the relative performance of rural producer organizations our results suggest that closeness to conflict reduces the capacity of producer organizations to provide agricultural services

the impact of foreign direct investment on horizontal export diversification empirical evidence using data on stocks of foreign direct investment fdi from 131 countries spanning the years 1984 to 2004 and the number of products exported by each country we examine the effect of fdi on horizontal export diversification to quantify the effects we utilize parametric quantile and semi parametric econometric methods results from both approaches indicate that in general an increase in the stock of fdi enhances the horizontal diversification of exports the actual magnitude of the effect however varies greatly across countries depending on the existing stock of fdi and stage of diversification giving rise to an almost inverted u shaped relationship a further look at our results provides useful insights on the circumstances under which fdi may aid or inhibit the horizontal expansion of exports

women empowerment and economic development women empowerment and economic development are closely related in one direction development alone can play a major role in driving down inequality between men and women in the other direction empowering women may benefit development does this imply that pushing just one of these two levers would set a virtuous circle in motion this paper reviews the literature on both sides of the empowerment development nexus and argues that the interrelationships are probably too weak to be self sustaining and that continuous policy commitment to equality for its own sake may be needed to bring about equality between men and women

insurance market efficiency and crop choices in pakistan this paper tests the efficiency of insurance markets in the pakistan punjab by examining how crop choices are affected by the presence of price and yield risk we estimate reduced form and structural models of crop choices although we cannot reject the hypothesis that village members efficiently share risk among themselves production choices are shown to depend on risk existing risk sharing and selfinsurance mechanisms thus imperfectly protect punjab farmers against village level shocks results also indicate that households respond to consumption price risk thereby suggesting that empirical and theoretical work on risk should avoid putting an exclusive emphasis on yield and output price risk

finding default understanding the drivers of default on contracts with farmers organizations under the world food programme purchase for progress pilot during the past two decades food assistance policy has shifted toward local or regional food purchases and away from purchases from donor countries while most local and regional procurement occurs through hard tendering processes open to large scale firms and farms there is growing interest in identifying how and whether to procure from smallholder farmer organizations to date little is known about the drivers of successful contracting with farmers organizations fos we utilize data from the united nations world food programme purchase for progress pilot in three east african countries to predict defaults on contracts we examine four possible explanations country contexts fo characteristics prior experience with contracts and contract modalities and their relationship to local spot market prices the single most important predictor of default is the increase in market prices between contract approval and delivery yet while increases in market prices are linked to increases in default this relationship is decreasing in contract size indicating search costs associated with breaking contracts our findings yield both generalizable and context specific insights about whether and when procuring from smallholder farmers can be successfully integrated into the food assistance toolkit this article is protected by copyright all rights reserved

peasant household behaviour with missing markets some paradoxes explained a model of peasant household behavior under varying degrees of household specific food and labor market failures is constructed to show that these structural features can explain several well known patterns of peasant response which have often been attributed to peculiar motives presumed specific to peasants the model explains sluggish response to cash crops prices and high instability in perceived food and labor scarcities the key role of manufactured consumer goods prices in stimulating peasants effort in cash crops production the effectiveness of taxation as opposed to incentives in stimulating cash crops production and the key role of technological change in food production to enhance cash crop production results are obtained analytically in the case of one market failure and by numerical simulation with more than one

number of siblings credit constraints and entrepreneurship in china with an under developed financial market borrowing from relatives becomes an important funding source in starting one s own business in china this paper examines the positive effect of number of

transactions costs and agricultural household supply response we develop and estimate a model of supply response when transactions costs create a situation where some producers buy others sell and others do not participate in markets we present two rationales for why producing households may have different relationships to the market proportional and fixed transactions costs using data on mexican corn producers we estimate an empirical model that allows for separate tests of the significance of both types of transactions costs revealing that both fixed and proportional transactions costs matter for the estimation the results provide consistent estimates of supply elasticity and measures of the relative importance of factors determining both proportional and fixed transactions costs

long run impacts of childhood access to the safety net a growing economics literature establishes a causal link between in utero shocks and health and human capital in adulthood most studies rely on extreme negative shocks such as famine and pandemics we are the first to examine the impact of a positive and policy driven change in economic resources available in utero and during childhood in particular we focus on the introduction of a key element of the u s safety net the food stamp program which was rolled out across counties in the u s between 1961 and 1975 we use the panel study of income dynamics to assemble unique data linking family background and county of residence in early childhood to adult health and economic outcomes the identification comes from variation across counties and over birth cohorts in availability of the food stamp program our findings indicate that the food stamp program has effects decades after initial exposure specifically access to food stamps in childhood leads to a significant reduction in the incidence of metabolic syndrome obesity high blood pressure and diabetes and for women an increase in economic self sufficiency overall our results suggest substantial internal and external benefits of the safety net that have not previously been quantified

social desirability opportunism and actual support for farmers market organisations in ethiopia one of the striking issues in the literature on farmers market organisations fmos is that farmers generally report quite positive opinions regarding the services of their fmo while at the same

does aid for trade enhance export performance investigating on the infrastructure channel today there are few empirical studies assessing the effectiveness of aid for trade on trade pe rformance furthermore existing works do not test channels by which this impact is transiting we address this question using an empirical analysis constructed in two steps following a model of export performance we first test if institutions and infrastructure our two potential channels of transmission are indeed determinants of export performance secondly we test the impact of aid for trade sectoral flows on the determinants that were highlighted in the first part we show that the infrastructure channel appears to be highly significant in the first step whereas the institutional one turns out to have limited impact on developing countries exports furthermore in our second step aid for infrastructure seems once instrumented to have a strong and positive impact on the infrastructure level our results indicate that a 10 increase in aid to infrastructure commitments per capita leads to an average increase of the exports over gdp ratio for a developing country of 2 34 it is also equivalent to a 2 71 reduction of the tariff and non tariff barriers this highlights the very high economic impact of aid for trade throughout the channel of infrastructures

a two season agricultural household model of output and price uncertainty abstract this paper presents a two season model of a household s production consumption labor supply and storage decisions in an environment of output and price risk the analytical results in this study are markedly different from those of models prevalent in the mainstream of the agricultural household literature the empirical analysis that uses panel data from a village in india provides support for the theoretical results and underscores the seasonal dimension of the farmers choice problems the results also show that ignoring risk or risk averse preferences may introduce substantial downward bias in optimal response estimates

grassroots organizations and ngos in rural development opportunities with diminishing states and expanding markets abstract this article undertakes to deal systematically with nongovernment organizations ngos and grassroots organizations gros usually treated as a residual category ten levels for development decision making and action are identified in the tradition of central place theory three of these are considered local or grassroots because of their collective action possibilities then three sectors are delineated instead of the usual two ngos are part of the collective action sector which differs from the public and private sectors in theoretically consistent ways a careful distinction is made between institutions and organizations usually conflated in the literature examples of accelerated rural development through grassroots organizations and ngos are discussed form asia africa and latin america

occupational choice and the process of development this paper models economic development as a process of institutional transformation by focusing on the interplay between agents occupational decisions and the distribution of wealth because of capital market imperfections poor agents choose working for a wage over self employment and wealthy agents become entrepreneurs who monitor workers only with sufficient inequality however will there be employment contracts otherwise there is either subsistence or self employment thus in static equilibrium the occupational structure depends on distribution since the latter is itself endogenous we demonstrate the robustness of this result by extending the model dynamically and studying examples in which initial wealth distributions have long run effects in one case the economy develops either widespread cottage industry self employment or factory production employment contracts depending on the initial distribution in the other example it develops into prosperity or stagnation

credit market constraints consumption smoothing and the accumulation of durable production assets in low income countries investments in bullocks in india in this paper we formulate and estimate a finite horizon structural dynamic model of agricultural investment behavior that incorporates the major features of low income agricultural environments income uncertainty constraints on borrowing and rental markets and the use of investment assets to generate income and smooth consumption the model is fit to longitudinal indian household data on farm profits bullock stocks and pump sets the estimated structural parameters are used to assess the effects on the life cycle accumulation of bullocks agricultural profits and welfare associated with complete markets and bullock liquidity and with second best policies that provide assured sources of income to farmers and weather insurance

large scale agricultural investments and smallholder welfare a comparison of wage labor and outgrower channels in tanzania summary this article evaluates household welfare effects of large scale agricultural investments in tanzania one of the main recipients of such investments in africa specifically the article compares households participating in sugar and rice investments through outgrower schemes or as agro industry workers with non participants in terms of household income and income poverty building on primary household data it is one of the first studies to empirically analyze ex post impacts of large scale agricultural investments in africa the analysis draws on cross section survey data of 516 households collected in kilombero district a priority cluster for the southern agricultural growth corridor of tanzania sagcot the results show overall positive household welfare differences between participants of the investments and the respective counterfactual however there are large differences between arrangements and subsectors estimated effects for outgrowers are largest yet for land rich outgrowers more so than for land poor effects for agro industry workers in the sugar investment are significantly larger than for those in the rice investment though in both investments land poor workers seem to benefit hence the study results suggest potential benefits of outgrower schemes and potentials of agro industry wage employment for the land poor to escape extreme poverty yet it also stresses particularly the need to address the constraints of land poor outgrowers qualitative interviews for example pointed to growing risks for land poor outgrowers in the context of rising elite capture by larger outgrowers

promoting the role of farmer based organizations for value chain integration the tension between a program s targeting and an organization s investment strategy we use new data on 500 farmer based organizations fbos in ghana and regression analysis to reveal determinants of collective investments and the case of the millennium development authority s mida agricultural program in ghana to demonstrate that development programs offering hard incentives may be counterproductive in promoting collective action we show that when a program sets criteria for participation and offers in cash and in kind support to selected fbos it may promote rent seeking and crowd out equity capital formation this is so because fbos may have formed for the sole purpose of benefitting from incentives offered by the program and thus lack an economic justification which is an important condition for progression through the cooperative life cycle further by setting stringent participation criteria the program may end up selecting younger organizations while it is the more consolidated organizations that are able to connect to business development services bds and engage in more offensive collective action

life expectancy and human capital investments evidence from maternal mortality declines longer life expectancy should encourage human capital accumulation since a longer time horizon increases the value of investments that pay out over time previous work has been unable to determine the empirical importance of this life expectancy effect due to the difficulty of isolating it from other effects of health on education we examine a sudden drop in maternal mortality risk in sri lanka between 1946 and 1953 which creates a sharp increase in life expectancy for school age girls without contemporaneous effects on health and which also allows for the use of boys as a control group using additional geographic variation we find that the 70 reduction in maternal mortality risk over the sample period increased female life expectancy at age 15 by 4 1 female literacy by 2 5 and female years of education by 4 0 authors

mortality reductions educational attainment and fertility choice this paper develops a model where reductions in mortality are the main force behind economic development the model generates a pattern of changes similar to the demographic transition where gains in life expectancy at birth are followed by reductions in fertility and increases in the rate of human capital accumulation the onset of the transition is characterized by a critical level of life expectancy at birth which marks the movement of the economy from a malthusian equilibrium to an equilibrium with investments in human capital and the possibility of long run growth

all for one family size and children s educational distribution under credit constraints this paper examines the possibility that a child s years of schooling could increase in the number of siblings instead of being diminished by competition for parents resources if unable to finance the education of their younger children parents may do so through their older children s labor income we examine this possibility in a model combining convex returns to education and credit constraints our model predicts correlations among family size years of schooling and birth order which would not exist when either of these two elements is absent empirical patterns shown in the united states mexico and south korea support the model predictions

the quiet revolution that transformed women s employment education and family the modern economic role of women emerged in four phases the first three were evolutionary the last was revolutionary phase i occurred from the late nineteenth century to the 1920s phase ii was from 1930 to 1950 phase iii extended from 1950 to the late 1970s and phase iv the quiet revolution began in the late 1970s and is still ongoing three aspects of women s choices distinguish the evolutionary from the revolutionary phases horizon identity and decision making the evolutionary phases are apparent in time series data on labor force participation the revolutionary phase is discernible using time series evidence on women s more predictable attachment to the workplace greater identity with career and better ability to make joint decisions with their spouses each of these series has a sharp break or inflection point signifying social and economic change these changes moreover coincide by birth cohort or period the relationship between the development of modern labor economics and the reality of women s changing economic role is explored the paper concludes by assessing whether the revolution has stalled or is being reversed women who graduated college in the early 1980s did not opt out but recent cohorts are too young to evaluate this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

income smoothing and consumption smoothing one way that risk averse households protect consumption levels is to borrow and use insurance mechanisms another way common in low income economies is to diversify economic activities and make conservative production and employment choices households thus tend toward limiting exposure only to shocks that can be handled with available credit and insurance typically both types of mechanisms are studied independently but much more can be learned by studying them together first we obtain a more complete picture of risks costs and insurance possibilities second it opens the way to considering biases in standard tests of credit and insurance

limited life expectancy human capital and health investments human capital theory predicts that life expectancy will impact human capital attainment we estimate this relationship using variation in life expectancy driven by huntington disease an inherited neurological disorder we compare investments for individuals who have ex ante identical risks of hd but differ in disease realization individuals with the hd mutation complete less education and job training the elasticity of demand for college attendance with respect to life expectancy is around 1 0 we relate this to cross country and over time differences in education we use smoking and cancer screening data to test the corollary that health capital responds to life expectancy

do icdps work an empirical evaluation of forest based microenterprises in the brazilian amazon this paper evaluates public investments in forest based microenterprises as part of an integrated conservation and development project icdp in the brazilian amazon we combine matching with regression to quantify the effects of program participation on household income wealth and livelihoods we find that participation increased cash and total income and asset accumulation suggesting that the microenterprises contributed to the development goals of the icdp there is no clear evidence however that the microenterprise program helped achieve the icdp s conservation goals of shifting household livelihoods away from agriculture and into sustainable forest use

a model of homogenous input demand under price uncertainty this paper examines the empirical validity of a model of homogeneous input demand under price uncertainty in which firms trade off expected input cost against its variability risk in selecting the optimal input supplier mix using recent work in time series econometrics this model is applied to the japanese steam coal import market where five suppliers compete china the soviet union south africa the united states and australia copyright 1991 by american economic association

the effects of exposure to better neighborhoods on children new evidence from the moving to opportunity experiment the moving to opportunity mto experiment offered randomly selected families housing vouchers to move from high poverty housing projects to lower poverty neighborhoods we analyze mto s impacts on children s long term outcomes using tax data we find that moving to a lower poverty neighborhood when young before age 13 increases college attendance and earnings and reduces single parenthood rates moving as an adolescent has slightly negative impacts perhaps because of disruption effects the decline in the gains from moving with the age when children move suggests that the duration of exposure to better environments during childhood is an important determinant of children s long term outcomes jel i31 i38 j13 r23 r38

how does your kindergarten classroom affect your earnings evidence from project star in project star 11 571 students in tennessee and their teachers were randomly assigned to classrooms within their schools from kindergarten to third grade this article evaluates the long term impacts of star by linking the experimental data to administrative records we first demonstrate that kindergarten test scores are highly correlated with outcomes such as earnings at age 27 college attendance home ownership and retirement savings we then document four sets of experimental impacts first students in small classes are significantly more likely to attend college and exhibit improvements on other outcomes class size does not have a significant effect on earnings at age 27 but this effect is imprecisely estimated second students who had a more experienced teacher in kindergarten have higher earnings third an analysis of variance reveals significant classroom effects on earnings students who were randomly assigned to higher quality classrooms in grades k 3 as measured by classmates end of class test scores have higher earnings college attendance rates and other outcomes finally the effects of class quality fade out on test scores in later grades but gains in noncognitive measures persist

impact of cooperatives on smallholders commercialization behavior evidence from ethiopia this article examines the impact of marketing cooperatives on smallholder commercialization of cereals using detailed household data in rural ethiopia we use the strong government role in promoting the establishment of cooperatives to justify the use of propensity score matching to compare households that are cooperative members to similar households in comparable areas without cooperatives the analysis reveals that although cooperatives obtain higher prices for their members they are not associated with a significant increase in the overall share of cereal production sold commercially by their members however these average results hide considerable heterogeneity across households in particular we find that smaller farmers tend to reduce their marketed output as a result of higher prices whereas the opposite is true for larger farmers

does cooperative membership improve household welfare evidence from apple farmers in china this paper examines the impact of cooperative membership on farm performance indicators such as apple yields net returns and household income using cross sectional data from a survey of farmers in china an endogenous switching regression model that accounts for selection bias is employed in the analysis the empirical results reveal that cooperative membership exerts a positive and statistically significant impact on apple yields farm net returns and household income a disaggregated analysis also reveals that small scale farms tend to benefit more from cooperatives than medium and large farms

the health of farmer based organisations in ghana organisational diagnostics and governance implications abstractin this paper we use primary data on 500 ghanaian fbos collected through semi structured interviews and risky dictator games rdg to test the validity of the cooperative life cycle theory and formulate a measure of cooperative health we first define cooperative health as the alignment of heterogeneity in risk preferences and the effectuation of collective investments we then use cluster and correlation analysis to categorize fbos on the basis of their health and correlate these typologies with various performance indicators our findings reveal that organizational health is generally low as there are only a few organizations that manage to provide member farmers with both risk sharing and cost saving opportunities further healthier fbos experience stronger growth in membership while health is lower in fbos that have been established for the purpose of benefitting from external incentives

who are russia s entrepreneurs social scientists studying entrepreneurship have emphasized three distinct sets of variables the institutional environment sociological variables and personal and psychological characteristics we are conducting surveys in five large developing and transition economies to better understand entrepreneurship in this short paper using over 2 000 interviews from a pilot study in russia we find evidence that the three sets of variables matter perceptions of the local institutional environment social network effects and individual characteristics are all important in determining entrepreneurial behavior jel m13 o12 p12

export diversification what s behind the hump hy should export diversification be taken as a policy objective per se there are two reasons that it should not first according to ricardo countries should specialize not diversify second the heckscher ohlin model implies that export patterns are largely determined by endowments so if anything we should worry about factor accumulation not diversification yet export diversification is a constant preoccupation of policymakers in developing countries as de ferranti et al 2002 note a recurrent preoccupation of latin american policymakers is that their natural riches produce a highly concentrated structure of export revenues which then leads to economic volatility and lower growth p 38 the notion that export patterns are fully determined by endowments is of course naive the relationship of endowments trade and growth is a complex and imperfectly understood one intra industry trade models showed long ago that many factors other than endowments including market failures and policies can affect trade patterns more recently hausmann hwang and rodrik 2007 argued that export patterns can display path dependence in the presence of externalities

the impact of a food security program on household food consumption in northwestern ethiopia a matching estimator approach abstract with the financial support from various development partners ethiopia has designed and implemented several programs to improve household food security yet food insecurity is still a major challenge to several millions of people in the country and it is questionable whether the different food security programs implemented over the past years have been successful using a propensity score matching method to control for pre intervention differences this study examined the impact on household food calorie intake of an integrated food security program ifsp which had been implemented in northwestern ethiopia by two non governmental organizations as a case study the estimated results provide evidence that ifsp has a positive and statistically significant effect on food calorie intake in particular ifsp has raised physical food calorie intake by 30 among the beneficiary households however we also found that ifsp has differential impact depending on family size landownership and gender of head of household overall the paper provides evidence that supporting integrated food security programs is important to improve food security in rural areas

the evolution of china s one child policy and its effects on family outcomes abstract in 1979 china introduced its unprecedented one child policy under which households exceeding the birth quota were penalized however estimating the effect of this policy on family outco

the effects of school spending on educational and economic outcomes evidence from school finance reforms since the coleman report many have questioned whether public school spending affects student outcomes the school finance reforms that began in the early 1970s and accelerated in the 1980s caused dramatic changes to the structure of k 12 education spending in the united states to study the effect of these school finance reform induced changes in public school spending on long run adult outcomes we link school spending and school finance reform data to detailed nationally representative data on children born between 1955 and 1985 and followed through 2011 we use the timing of the passage of court mandated reforms and their associated type of funding formula change as exogenous shifters of school spending and we compare the adult outcomes of cohorts that were differentially exposed to school finance reforms depending on place and year of birth event study and instrumental variable models reveal that a 10 increase in per pupil spending each year for all 12 years of public school leads to 0 31 more completed years of education about 7 higher wages and a 3 2 percentage point reduction in the annual incidence of adult poverty effects are much more pronounced for children from low income families exogenous spending increases were associated with notable improvements in measured school inputs including reductions in student to teacher ratios increases in teacher salaries and longer school years jel codes j10 i20 h7

brothers household financial markets and savings rate in china abstract this study analyzes the effect of the number of brothers an individual has on that individual s household savings rate under the current underdeveloped household financial market in urban china i show that having an additional brother reduces an individual s household savings rate by at least 5 percentage points brothers help households 1 by sharing risks providing a source of informal borrowing and 2 by sharing the cost of supporting parents sisters play a minor role in affecting a household s savings rate mainly because of cultural norms the decline in the average number of brothers in households induced by population policies explained at least one third of the increased aggregate household savings rate in urban china

endogenous altruism theory and evidence from chinese twins this paper studies the endogenous formation of intersibling altruism the theory suggests that parental incentive to foster children s fraternal love is positively related to efficiency gains from

fertility restrictions and life cycle outcomes evidence from the one child policy in china this study considers the experience of china s one child policy to examine how fertility restrictions affect economic and social outcomes over a lifetime using variations in these penalties across

house prices collateral and self employment this paper explores the role of the collateral lending channel to facilitate small business starts and self employment in the period before the financial crisis of 2008 we document that between 2002 and 2007 areas with a bigger run up in house prices experienced a strong increase in employment in small businesses compared to employment in large firms in the same industries this increase in small business employment was particularly pronounced in industries that need little startup capital and can thus more easily be financed out of increases in housing as collateral our results highlight the importance of the collateral lending channel during the period of the house price boom in the creation of small establishments we show that this effect is separate from the aggregate demand channel that relies on home equity based borrowing leading to increased demand and employment creation

on price risk and the inverse farm size productivity relationship abstract the oft observed inverse relationship between farm size and productivity has elicited several explanations having important policy and theoretical implications using advances in the analysis of price risk effects on producer behavior and a simple two period model of an agricultural household that both produces and consumes under price uncertainty at the time labor allocation decisions are made this paper demonstrates analytically that a non degenerate land distribution and price risk can together produce an inverse relationship even absent any of the more common explanations empirical evidence from madagascar confirms the plausibility of this intuitive explanation for the phenomenon

credit constraints job mobility and entrepreneurship evidence from a property reform in china this paper provides new evidence on the impact of private property rights on entrepreneurship i explore this issue in the context of a housing reform in urban china that allowed state employees renting state owned housing the opportunity to buy their homes at subsidized prices using the reform as an exogenous change in the capital constraints and mobility costs that inuence individuals entry

birth control and female empowerment an equilibrium analysis we analyze from a theoretical perspective the impact of innovations in birth control technology on intrahousehold allocation of resources we consider a model of frictionless matching on the marriage market in which men as well as women differ in their preferences for children moreover men unlike women must marry to enjoy fatherhood we show that more efficient birth control technologies generally increase the power hence the welfare of all women including those who do not use them this empowerment effect requires that the new technology be available to single women an innovation reserved to married women may result in a disempowerment effect

carrots and sticks fertility effects of china s population policies for 20 years following 1949 average total fertility per woman in china hovered just above six children the year 1970 marked the beginning of persistent fertility declines by 1980 the rate had dropped to 2 75 and since 1992 it has remained under 2 while some of this transition can be accounted for by broad socioeconomic developments the extent to which it is attributable to china s unique population policies remains controversial this paper analyzes household data from the 1992 household economy and fertility survey hefs to provide the first direct microeconomic empirical evidence on the efficacy of these policies

does aid for trade diversify the export structure of recipient countries the importance of aid for trade as a tool for facilitating trade economic growth and social development has received attention since the concept was introduced in 2005 while one of the main targets of aid for trade is export diversification reflecting the fact that the exports of many developing countries are concentrated in a small range of items there have not been many efforts to measure the effect of aid for trade on export structure this study therefore attempts to trace the relationship between aid for trade and 133 aid recipients export structure between 1996 and 2013 using the herfindahl hirschman index to measure the degree of export concentration the findings suggest that total aid for trade has reduced the concentration level in the short run in the long run on the other hand aid for trade has had no significant effect on export structure of recipient countries only aid for building productive capacity which is one of the three categories of aid for trade contributes to lower concentration yet this change is not caused by an increase in export diversity but by the redistribution of shares of existing products of a similar sophistication level

more power to the pill the impact of contraceptive freedom on women s life cycle labor supply the release of enovid in 1960 the first birth control pill afforded u s women unprecedented freedom to plan childbearing and their careers this paper uses plausibly exogenous variation in state consent laws to evaluate the causal impact of the pill on the timing of first births and extent and intensity of women s labor force participation the results suggest that legal access to the pill before age 21 significantly reduced the likelihood of a first birth before age 22 increased the number of women in the paid labor force and raised the number of annual hours worked

improving the speed of adoption of agricultural technologies and farm performance through farmer groups evidence from the great lakes region of africa the article examines the effect of membership in farmer groups mfg on adoption lag of agricultural technologies and farm performance in burundi the democratic republic of congo and rwanda we use duration and stochastic production frontier models on farm household data we find that the longer the duration of mfg the shorter the adoption lag and much more so if combined with extension service delivery farmer groups function as an important mechanism for improving farm productivity through reduced technical inefficiency in input use we discuss policy implications under which farmer groups are a useful channel to reduce adoption lag and the means through which improved farm performance can be achieved

cooperative pricing and scale efficiency the case of korean rice processing complexes unlike most investor owned enterprises cooperatives often have freedom to choose among a variety of firm objectives using 2002 2008 plantand province level data we ask in the present article which of several alternative maximands a korean cooperative rice processing firm pursues in contrast to earlier studies farmer member supply functions are incorporated into the cooperative s optimization framework we show that only large cooperative firms have operated at efficient scale while small and medium sized ones have been scale inefficient because the latter operate where scale returns are increasing mergers of small and medium sized cooperatives likely would be cost reducing and member return enhancing

do population control policies induce more human capital investment twins birthweight and china s one child policy in this paper we address the issues of whether reductions in fertility increase human capital investments per child and whether twinning can identify the quantity quality q q trade off we show that estimates of the effects of twinning at higher parities on the outcomes of older children in prior studies do not identify family size effects but are confounded by inter child allocation effects because of the endowment deficit and close spacing of twins however examining the effects of twinning by birth order net of the effects stemming from the endowment deficit of twins can provide upper and lower bounds on the trade off between the family size and average child quality our estimates based on data from china indicate that an extra child at parity one or at parity two net of one component of birth endowment effects associated with birth weight significantly decreases the schooling progress the expected college enrolment grades in school and the assessed health of all children in the family despite the evident significant trade off between number of children and child quality in china the findings suggest that the contribution of the one child policy in china to the development of its human capital was modest copyright wiley blackwell