the international transmission of interest rate shocks the federal reserve and emerging markets in latin america and asia abstract this paper analyzes the effects of changes in the u s federal reserve s federal funds rate on emerging countries interest rates using high frequency weekly data i also investigate how changes in the u s term structure affect short term rates differentials other shocks include changes in the u s dollar euro exchange rate changes in the international price of oil risk ratings and the degree of capital mobility the results indicate that there is a strong and fairly rapid transmission of changes in the federal funds rate into interest rates in the latin american countries in the sample this effect is equally large in the asian nations in the long run the adjustment path is different across the two regions however adjustment is very fast and cyclical in latin america it is gradual and slower in east asia

capital controls capital flow contractions and macroeconomic vulnerability abstract in this paper i analyze whether restrictions to capital mobility reduce vulnerability to external shocks more specifically i ask if countries that restrict the free flow of international capital have a lower probability of experiencing a large contraction in net capital flows i use three new indexes on the degree of international financial integration and a large multi country data set for 1970 2004 to estimate a series of random effect probit equations i find that the marginal effect of higher capital mobility on the probability of a capital flow contraction is positive and statistically significant but very small having a flexible exchange rate greatly reduces the probability of experiencing a capital flow contraction the benefits of flexible rates increase as the degree of capital mobility increases a higher current account deficit increases the probability of a capital flow contraction while a higher ratio of fdi to gdp reduces that probability

financial globalisation and crisis institutional transformation and equity this paper comprises the long introduction to the symposium of five papers on financial globalisation published in the cambridge journal of economics volume 34 no 2 the paper discusses the impact of financial globalisation in a variety of spheres and shows how the five papers link together to provide a coherent view of the current economic and financial crisis in this paper we also examine the globalisation of finance more broadly both in historical terms as well as in relation to the current widespread failure in the financial markets we take up the policy question of how the interests of the poor in particular and developing countries in general could be safeguarded from the vagaries of financial globalisation questioning how much choice communities and countries have and what can the international community do to extend these choices

external debt capital flight and political risk abstract this paper explains the simultaneous occurence of large external debts private capital outflows and low domestic capital formation we consider a general equilibrium model in which two government types with conflicting distributional goals randomly alternate in office uncertainty over the fiscal policies of future governments generates capital flight and small domestic investment and induces the government to overaccumulate external debt the model also predicts that left wing governments are more inclined to restrict capital outflows than right wing governments finally we examine how political uncertainty affects the risk premium and how debt repudiation may occur after a regime change

the federal reserve the emerging markets and capital controls a high frequency empirical investigation in this paper i use weekly data from seven emerging nations four in latin america and three in asia to investigate the extent to which changes in fed policy interest rates have been transmitted into domestic short term interest rates during the 2000s the results suggest that there is indeed an interest rates pass through from the fed to emerging markets however the extent of transmission of interest rate shocks is different in terms of impact steady state effect and dynamics in latin america and asia the results also indicate that capital controls are not an effective tool for isolating emerging countries from global interest rate disturbances changes in the slope of the u s yield curve including changes generated by a twist policy affect domestic interest rates in emerging countries i also provide a detailed case study for chile

the politics of speculative attacks in industrial democracies recent models of speculative currency crises contend that market expectations of policy behavior can trigger a speculative attack we argue that political processes and partisan objectives inform expectations about the government s commitment to the exchange rate first market actors anticipate periods when the partisan identity of a government may change through an election or a cabinet collapse second party labels provide information to currency traders about the policy objectives of a potential government consequently we contend that the probability of a speculative attack will be higher when markets expect the cabinet to end and when the cabinet dissolution is likely to produce a leftward shift in policy a discrete timesurvival model is used to estimate the probability that a cabinet will dissolve in any given month for sixteen parliamentary democracies from 1970 to 1995 the predicted values are then used as a proxy for market expectations in a model of speculative currency crises

how effective are capital controls a number of authors have recently argued that in order to avoid financial instability emerging countries should rely on capital controls two type of controls have been considered controls on capital outflows and controls on capital inflows in this paper i review the historical evidence on the effectiveness of these two type of controls i argue that controls on outflows have been ineffective they are circumvented and breed corruption i also analyze chile s recent experience with controls on inflows and i argue that their effectiveness has been exaggerated

aggregate spending and the terms of trade is there a laursen metzler effect this paper investigates the spending and current account effects of terms of trade shifts in a model where households maximize utility over an infinite planning period in the framework developed here an economy specialized in production must experience a fall in aggregate spending and a current surplus as a result of an unanticipated permanent worsening in its terms of trade the paper s model thus provides a setting in which the current account deficit predicted by laursen and metzier harberger and others fails to materialize

intermediate inputs and international trade an analysis of the real and monetary aspects of a change in the price of oil abstract this paper studies the effects of a change in the price of a traded intermediate input on the real and monetary sectors of a fully employed small open economy the real side of the model examines the relationship between the pricee of the input and relative factor and commodity prices the pattern of trade and the levels of production in various industries the monetary side focuses on the dynamics of the nominal exchange rate and the stock of traded assets with particular emphasis on the role of changes in real income and asset values that result from this disturbance

exchange rate pass through openness and the sacrifice ratio abstract considerable recent work has reached mixed conclusions about whether and how globalization affects the inflation output trade off and suggests that the ultimate effect of openness on the output inflation relationship is influenced by a variety of factors in this paper we consider the impact of exchange rate pass through and examine how pass through conditions the effect of openness on the sacrifice ratio we develop a simple theoretical model showing how the extent of both pass through and openness can interact to influence the output inflation relationship next we empirically explore the nature of these two variables and their interaction results indicate that greater pass through increases the sacrifice ratio that there is statistically significant interaction between pass through and openness and once the extent of pass through is taken into account alongside other factors that affect the sacrifice ratio such as central bank independence openness fails to exert an empirically robust effect on the sacrifice ratio

democratic institutions and exchange rate commitments since the collapse of the bretton woods system countries have been able to choose from a variety of exchange rate arrangements we argue that politicians incentives condition the choice of an exchange rate arrangement these incentives reflect the configuration of domestic political institutions particularly electoral and legislative institutions in systems where the cost of electoral defeat is high and electoral timing is exogenous politicians will be less willing to forgo their discretion over monetary policy with a fixed exchange rate in systems where the costs of electoral defeat are low and electoral timing is endogenous politicians are more likely to adopt a fixed exchange rate regime consequently differences in domestic political systems can help account for variations in the choice of exchange rate arrangements we test this argument using constrained multinomial logit and binomial logit on a sample of twenty democracies over the period 1974 95 domestic political institutions have a significant effect on exchange rate regime choice even after controlling for systemic macroeconomic and other political variables

political vs currency premia in international real interest differentials a study of forward rates for 24 countries abstract different approaches to quantifying the degree of capital mobility for a cross section of currencies particularly saving investment correlations and tests of real interest parity have appeared to show a surprisingly low degree of financial integration we use a new data set forward rate data for 24 countries including many small industrialized countries and seven ldcs to decompose the real interest differential into two parts the covered interest differential or political premium and the real forward discount or currency premium the latter in turn can be decomposed into the exchange risk premium and expected real depreciation we find a high degree of capital mobility across political boundaries for most of the g 11 countries plus hong kong and singapore for our sample period of 1982 to 1987 even for most of the other ldcs and smaller industrialized countries for which covered interest parity clearly fails the political premium is not as big a component of the real interest differential as the currency premium france would appear to have higher capital mobility than most by the criterion of real interest differentials but is seen in fact to have low capital mobility by the criterion of covered interest differentials a clear example of the superiority of the latter criterion

the terms of trade and the current account the harberger laursen metzler effect the paper examines the effect of terms of trade changes on a small country s spending and current account assuming optimizing behavior in an intertemporal framework with perfect international capital mobility a temporary future terms of trade deterioration implies a deterioration improvement of the trade balance whereas a permanent terms of trade deterioration has an ambiguous effect depending on the rate of time preference nominal and real variables are considered via exact price indexes two periods and an infinite horizon are examined

the optimal investment and current account response to oil price shocks under putty clay technology abstract the motivation for this paper is the discrepancy between actual ca responses to oil price shocks and the prediction derived from simple intertemporal optimizing models these models indicate a decline in investment and a ca improvement as the optimal response in this paper we introduce putty clay technology into a two period optimizing model and show that that leads to an increase in gross investments and a ca deterioration as an optimal response to large oil price shocks by net importers of oil successful adapters to the 1973 1974 oil price shocks korea taiwan indeed followed such a policy

back to which bretton woods liquidity and clearing as alternative principles for reforming international money in the face of the current crisis there is growing demand for regulation often invoked in terms of a return to bretton woods the bretton woods conference of 1944 was indeed the last explicit attempt to define a rule for international set tlements in fact post world war ii currency negotiations gave place to a confrontation between two alternative visions of the international monetary system the two plans set forth by the u s and by the u k embody two alternative principles the first aims at producing international liquidity on the basis of a reserve currency white s plan for an international stabilization fund the second aims at providing a pure means and measure for the multilateral clearing of current accounts in the form of a currency unit keynes s plan for an international clearing union the former has undoubtedly prevailed however it is questionable whether it is the most appropriate way to manage global imbalances indeed the principle eventually embodied in the bretton woods system and persisting even after its demise tends to identify money with a reserve asset making possible and even necessary the accumulation of global imbalances despite original intentions to reabsorb them on the contrary the principle that inspired the alternative plan was intended to deprive money of the character of a reserve asset thus making it the rule for international exchanges rather than an object of regulation among others this paper outlines the two principles both in historical perspective and in the perspective of future reforms particularly in relation to the recent proposal by the governor of the people s bank of china to go back to the principles of the keynes plan

did the euro common currency increase or decrease business cycle synchronization for its member countries we use two variants of markov switching models to assess changes in output synchronization since the creation of the euro out of eight eurozone countries investigated only one the netherlands has synchronization increased since euro adoption supporting the endogenous optimal currency area argument of frankel and rose however in three other cases business cycle synchronization actually fell since the euro s creation thus the endogeneity of the optimal currency area criteria can go both ways adopting a common currency may increase synchronization for nations ready for a common currency but it can lower synchronization for nations that are far from synchronized before monetary unification

capital account liberalization what do cross country studies tell us capital account liberalization it is fair to say remains one of the most controversial and least understood policies of our day one reason is that different theoretical perspectives have very different implications for the desirability of liberalizing capital flows another is that empirical analysis has failed to yield conclusive results the answer another influential strand of thought contends is that this efficient markets paradigm is fundamentally misleading when applied to capital flows limits on capital movements are a distortion it is an implication of the theory of the second best that removing one distortion need not be welfare enhancing when other distortions are present

complementary credit networks and macroeconomic stability switzerland s wirtschaftsring abstract the swiss wirtschaftsring economic circle credit network founded in 1934 provides residual spending power that is highly counter cyclical individuals are cash short in a recession and economize by greater use of wir credits a money in the production function mipf specification implies that transactions in wir form a stabilizing balance that makes up for the lack of ordinary currency thus unlike the ordinary money wir money is negatively correlated with gdp in the short run this implication is confirmed by empirical estimates such credit networks play a stabilizing role that should be considered in monetary policy

local clearing unions as stabilizers of local economic systems a stock flow consistent perspective various examples of complementary currencies have recently emerged in europe in response to the impact of the 2007 financial crisis they have been variously labelled as social local and alternative money but their economic meaning has still to be discussed on the one hand they have been hailed as innovative tools for socio territorial policies with a focus on localist anti globalist and anti capitalist values on the other the emphasis on the value of currencies as instruments of alternative territorial development runs the risk of overshadowing issues concerning the specific features of such projects the first part of this paper puts forward an interpretation of the current situation as a crisis of the liquidity principle and suggests that the principle of clearing instead represents the primary point of reference for any institutional arrangement aimed at restoring a balanced relationship between lenders and borrowers a critical review of known european complementary monetary circuits is followed by examination of the sardex clearing system the paper then goes on to argue by means of a stock flow consistent model that complementary monetary circuits can serve to stabilise local economic systems in particular a local clearing union for local exchanges has the effect of stabilising the profits of firms while attenuating the impact of the credit crunch at same time

the persistence of financial distress using recently available proprietary panel data we show that while many 35 us consumers experience financial distress at some point in the life cycle most of the events of financial distress are primarily concentrated in a much smaller proportion of consumers in persistent trouble roughly 10 of consumers are distressed for more than a quarter of the life cycle and less than 10 of borrowers account for half of all distress events these facts can be largely accounted for in a straightforward extension of a workhorse model of defaultable debt that accommodates a simple form of heterogeneity in time preference but not otherwise

nexus between economic sanctions and inflation a case study in iran abstractconventional studies have applied dummy variables to analyse the relationship between economic sanctions and inflation while we construct an index which is called trade financial sanctions

second best policy for international trade and investment abstract this paper investigates second best commercial policy for an open economy within the two commodity two factor model of a two country world where the first best strategy is known to require taxes subsidies on both international trade in commodities and foreign investment via capital movements as the analysis shows when either of these policy instruments is prohibited the other instrument generally must be complemented by a tax subsidy in consumption or production if a second best rather than third best equilibrium is desired the paper derives moreover precise conditions for determining the second best package of policies

sustainable consumption the new economics and community currencies developing new institutions for environmental governance seyfang g 2006 sustainable consumption the new economics and community currencies developing new institutions for environmental governance regional studies 40 781 791 sustainable consumption is gaining currency as a new environmental policy objective but there is a limit to the changes in consumption behaviour that individuals can make within current socio economic frameworks the new economics literature argues that sustainable consumption is characterized by five factors localization reducing ecological footprints community building collective action and building new social institutions these form a set of indicators for the evaluation of initiatives and policies community currencies have been put forward as a new tool to promote sustainable consumption but until now there has been no appraisal of their ability to deliver this goal three different community currency types are described and their effectiveness and potential in enabling more sustainable consumption patterns are assess

openness the sacrifice ratio and inflation is there a puzzle abstract the standard time inconsistency based explanation for the negative correlation between openness and inflation requires an inverse relationship between the sacrifice ratio and openness but daniels et al 2005 openness central bank independence and the sacrifice ratio journal of money credit and banking 37 2 371 379 have provided evidence that controlling for central bank independence reveals a positive relationship this paper embeds the time inconsistency approach within a model of a multisector imperfectly competitive open economy in this setting greater openness raises the sacrifice ratio but reduces the inflation bias thus failure to observe an inverse relationship between openness and the sacrifice ratio does not necessarily imply that the time inconsistency approach is irrelevant to understanding the openness inflation relationship

local exchange trading systems as a response to the globalisation of capitalism the globalisation of capitalism has disadvantaged those people and places marginal to the capitalist development process the local exchange trading system represents a possible approach to the challenge of relocalising social and economic identity despite the growing importance of local exchange trading systems lets in the uk geographical research into the concept is limited this paper examines the potential of lets as a response to the hegemonic influence of global capitalism the empirical evidence focuses on the development and operation of lets in glasgow the research analyses both successful and unsuccessful lets in the city examines the prospects for further development of lets in the uk and considers the potential value of the concept particularly for people and places disadvantaged by the capitalist market economy

failures on the market and market failures a complementary currency for bankruptcy procedures one of the most widespread implications of the great financial crisis has been the increase in bankruptcies across advanced economies the traditional approach to the problem of insolvencies is constrained by deeply ingrained concepts of money and credit and by the institutions in which those concepts are embodied according to which the only way to discharge a debt is a payment in money this paper deals with a peculiar project elaborated within the italian ministry of justice to address the problem of the growing amount of uncollectibles involved in bankruptcy procedures the project entails a new form of articulation between money and credit which overturns the traditional logic of liquidation by transforming creditors of bankruptcy procedures passively waiting to be paid into active operators capable of sustaining demand this goal is pursued by converting part of their credits into purchasing power that can be immediately spent in the auctions for the assets of bankrupt companies thereby increasing the efficiency of bankruptcy procedures accelerating the reallocation of assets and maximising the satisfaction of creditors the projects may be seen as a complementary currency characterised by a functional and not by a territorial delimitation it incorporates some of the features that have been recently experimented with with varying degree of success within both the official and alternative monetary systems endogenous money creation targeted loans and demurrage the present paper aims at illustrating the theoretical underpinnings of the project and its implication for the question of devising an alternative to current financial institutions

booming sector and de industrialisation in a small open economy this paper presents a theoretical analysis of the dutch disease the phenomenon whereby a boom in one traded goods sector squeezes porfitability in other traded goods sectors both by directly bi

thresholds in the process of international financial integration abstract the financial crisis has re ignited the fierce debate about the merits of financial globalization and its implications for growth especially for developing countries the empirical literature has not been able to conclusively establish the presumed growth benefits of financial integration indeed a new literature proposes that the indirect benefits of financial integration may be more important than the traditional financing channel emphasized in previous analyses a major complication however is that there seem to be certain threshold levels of financial and institutional development that an economy needs to attain before it can derive the indirect benefits and reduce the risks of financial openness in this paper we develop a unified empirical framework for characterizing such threshold conditions we find that there are clearly identifiable thresholds in variables such as financial depth and institutional quality the cost benefit trade off from financial openness improves significantly once these threshold conditions are satisfied we also find that the thresholds are lower for foreign direct investment and portfolio equity liabilities compared to those for debt liabilities

are countries with official international restrictions liquidity constrained abstract in this paper i empirically examine consumption smoothing behavior across a broad group of countries using a unique data set that indicates whether residents in a country face an official government restriction i then ask whether the ex ante consumption movements among restricted countries differ from those of unrestricted countries to gauge the departure from standard consumption smoothing i use the campbell and mankiw consumption income and interest rates reinterpreting the time series evidence in o j blanchard and s fischer eds nber macroeconomics annual 1989 mit press cambridge ma 1989 and the response of consumption to income a cross country investigation european economic review 35 723 756 1991 approach of regressing consumption growth on income growth and instrumenting with lagged variables interestingly i find that consumption growth for residents in countries that impose international restrictions have a significantly higher coefficient on income growth than do residents in countries without those restrictions thus a greater proportion of consumers facing international restrictions appear to act as though they are liquidity constrained according to the campbell and mankiw approach i also discuss alternative interpretations that do not depend upon liquidity constraints

capital market liberalization economic growth and instability summary this paper reviews briefly the arguments for capital market liberalization and identifies their theoretical and empirical weaknesses this provides the foundations for the argument for intervention in short term capital flows the paper concludes with a brief discussion of the various ways in which such interventions may be implemented 2000 elsevier science ltd all rights reserved

is inflation targeting a good remedy to control inflation abstract since the 1990s inflation targeting it has been adopted by several central banks as a strategy for monetary policy it is expected that the adoption of this monetary regime can reduce inflation and inflation volatility this article is concerned with these issues and makes use of the propensity score matching methodology on a sample of 180 countries for the period from 1990 to 2007 for analysis the sample is split into two sets of countries advanced and developing the findings suggest that the adoption of it is an ideal monetary regime for developing economies and in addition to reducing inflation volatility can drive inflation down to internationally acceptable levels regarding advanced economies the adoption of it does not appear to represent an advantageous strategy in brief the empirical results indicate that the adoption of it is useful for countries that must enhance their credibility for the management of monetary policy

capital account liberalization and inflation abstract evidence from over 100 countries suggests a strong link between capital account openness and lower inflation in particular widespread capital account liberalization during the early 1990s appears to have contributed to the world wide disinflation observed during that decade alternative indices of capital account openness including those of quinn and toyoda measuring international financial openness and closure department of political science georgetown university washington dc 1996 mimeo yield similar results

how do capital controls affect international trade abstract trade effects of capital controls have not been thoroughly examined empirically using a new dataset of capital controls on both inflows and outflows we study the impact of capital controls on international trade by augmenting the gravity model with capital controls the results consistently show that capital controls are correlated more with exports rather than imports inward capital controls reduce exports while outward capital controls promote exports

globalization the output inflation tradeoff and inflation abstract this paper provides comprehensive evidence on the relation between inflation and globalization defined here as trade and financial openness using a large cross section of 91 countries over the period 1985 2004 we establish two main empirical regularities both higher trade and financial openness i reduce central banks inflation bias yielding lower average inflation and ii are associated with a larger output inflation tradeoff this evidence is at odds with the standard barro gordon framework which would require globalization to have a negative effect on the output inflation tradeoff to yield lower equilibrium inflation but it is consistent with a recent strand of new keynesian models emphasizing the role of imperfect competition and nominal rigidities our findings also support the relevance of the time inconsistency hypothesis which underlies the theoretical models predicting a relation between globalization and inflation for the oecd subsample however we do not find an effect of openness on inflation the output inflation tradeoff suggesting that these countries have created an institutional framework for central banks that eliminates distortions due to the time inconsistency problem

capital control liberalization and stock market development the authors address two questions what happens to stock market size liquidity volatility and integration with world capital markets after capital controls are liberalized and what is the relationship between those indicators of stock market development and regulations about information disclosure accounting standards and investor protection an analysis of data on stock markets in 16 developing countries suggests the following a stock markets become larger more liquid more integrated internationally and more volatile after controls on capital and dividend flows are liberalized b easy access to information about firms is positively associated with the size and liquidity of stock markets and c countries that officially establish internationally accepted accounting standards and laws to protect investors do not have substantially better functioning stock markets than countries that do not adopt those official standards

flattening of the phillips curve and the role of the oil price an unobserved component model for the usa and australia we use the unobserved components model of harvey 1989 and 2011 to estimate the phillips curve pc for the usa and australia by augmenting it with oil prices we found that the level coefficient of inflation and the coefficient of demand pressure have declined and contributed to the flattening of the phillips curve but the coefficient of oil prices has increased and has partly offset these effects therefore oil prices are likely to play a significant role in future inflation rates

the origins of financial openness a study of current and capital account liberalization theory we assess the determinants of the national regulation of international finance or the comparative degree of national financial openness or closure hypotheses partisanship interacts with a nation s factor endowments to account in part for different international financial policies by governments of the same partisan hue methods we offer a quantitative measure of international financial openness or current and capital account regulation for 21 member countries of the organization for economic cooperation and development for 1950 88 we use regression analysis employing panel corrected standard errors to discover the determinants of financial openness results our main finding is that political partisanship substantially explains openness but does so in complex ways differences in both political institutional arrangements and types of political economy also account for part of the differences in international financial regulation

financial liberalisation in emerging markets how does bank lending change financial liberalisation has often failed in the past due to underestimated problems of structural change we analyse such changes in lending behaviour of thai commercial banks during a liberalisation phase by way of unique micro data liberalisation has expected positive effects such as lowering the interest rate spread and collateral requirements liberalisation causes structural change such as a decline in collateral based and relationship banking however the liberal isation evidence is consistent with more risk taking such as lending to more risky projects and less protection against default the thai experience suggests obvious policy lessons

financial development and economic growth views and agenda this critique argues that the preponderance of theoretical reasoning and empirical evidence suggests a positive first order relationship between financial development and economic growth the body of work would push even most skeptics toward the belief that the development of financial markets and institutions is a critical and inextricable part of the growth process and away from the view that the financial system is an inconsequential sideshow responding passively to economic growth many gaps remain however and the paper highlights areas in acute need of additional research

capital account liberalization as a signal the authors present a model in which a government s current capital control policy signals future policies controls on capital outflows evolve in response to news on technology conditional on government attitudes toward taxation of capital when there is uncertainty over governmental types a policy of liberal capital outflows sends a favorable signal that may trigger a capital inflow this prediction is consistent with the experience of several countries that have liberalized their capital accounts copyright 1997 by american economic association

capital account liberalization financial development and industry growth a synthetic view this paper synthesizes studies analyzing the effects of capital account liberalization on industry growth while controlling for financial crises domestic financial development and the strength of institutions we find evidence that financial openness has positive effects on the growth of financially dependent industries although these growth enhancing effects evaporate during financial crises further analysis indicates that the positive effects of capital account liberalization are limited to countries with relatively well developed financial systems good accounting standards strong creditor rights and rule of law it suggests that countries must reach a certain threshold in terms of institutional and economic development before they can expect to benefit from capital account liberalization