weak disposability in nonparametric production analysis reply to fare and grosskopf fare and grosskopf this issue claim that a single abatement factor suffices for modeling weak disposability in nonparametric production models and that the kuosmanen 2005 technology that uses multiple abatement factors is larger than necessary this article demonstrates by a numerical example that a single abatement factor does not suffice to capture all feasible production plans and that its use leads to the violation of convexity one of the maintained assumptions of the model we also prove that the kuosmanen technology is the correct minimum extrapolation technology under the stated axioms

investment risks in power generation a comparison of fossil fuel and renewable energy dominated markets abstract due to their high capital intensity weather dependent renewable energies res such as solar and wind face considerable investment risks in power markets in addition their uncertain production volumes also affect the investment risks of other plant types through the impact on power prices and residual demand increasing res shares thus potentially increase overall investment risks in power markets which many analysts consider to be a potential problem against this background this paper compares investment risks of different technologies in markets with increasing shares of variable res it further analyses how generation mixes are affected by these investment risks if the risks are evaluated on a stand alone basis or in a plant portfolio context of a private firm for this purpose a stylized investment and dispatch model is used to conduct monte carlo simulations from which risk measures are derived the results show that capital intensive res face the highest stand alone risks since their profits are most affected by the power price risk however the results further indicate that the stand alone risks of variable res decrease with their share in the market because of a negative correlation of output and price risk in addition res have a risk benefit in firm plant portfolios in terms of constituting a hedge against losses of fossil fuel plants this positive portfolio effect however rapidly decreases and becomes negative with increasing res shares in the market

least cost 100 renewable electricity scenarios in the australian national electricity market least cost options are presented for supplying the australian national electricity market nem with 100 renewable electricity using wind photovoltaics concentrating solar thermal cst with storage hydroelectricity and biofuelled gas turbines we use a genetic algorithm and an existing simulation tool to identify the lowest cost investment and operating scenarios of renewable technologies and locations for nem regional hourly demand and observed weather in 2010 using projected technology costs for 2030 these scenarios maintain the nem reliability standard limit hydroelectricity generation to available rainfall and limit bioenergy consumption the lowest cost scenarios are dominated by wind power with smaller contributions from photovoltaics and dispatchable generation cst hydro and gas turbines the annual cost of a simplied transmission network to balance supply and demand across nem regions is a small proportion of the annual cost of the generating system annual costs are compared with a scenario where fossil fuelled power stations in the nem today are replaced with modern fossil substitutes at projected 2030 costs and a carbon price is paid on all emissions at moderate carbon prices which appear required to address climate change 100 renewable electricity would be cheaper on an annual basis than the replacement scenario

does environmental regulation affect energy efficiency in china s thermal power generation empirical evidence from a slacks based dea model abstract data envelopment analysis dea has gained much popularity in performance measurement of power industry this paper presents a slack based measure approach to investigating the relationship between fossil fuel consumption and the environmental regulation of china s thermal power generation we first calculate the total factor energy efficiency without considering environmental constraints an environmental performance indicator is proposed through decomposing the total factor energy efficiency the proposed approach is then employed to examine whether environmental regulation affects the energy efficiency of china s thermal power generation we find that the environmental efficiency plays a significant role in affecting energy performance of china s thermal generation sector decreasing the discharge of major pollutants can improve both energy performance and environmental efficiency besides we also have three main findings 1 the energy efficiency and environmental efficiency were relatively low 2 the energy and environmental efficiency scores show great variations among provinces 3 both energy efficiency and environmental efficiency are of obvious geographical characteristics according to our findings we suggest some policy implications

shadow pricing of undesirable outputs in nonparametric analysis abstract for three decades a growing interest in the modeling of desirable and undesirable outputs has led to a theoretical and methodological debate in the nonparametric literature on production technology and efficiency the first main discussion is about the way of modeling bad undesirables as inputs or outputs or by transformation functions the second debate concerns the implications of the weak disposability assumption in the modeling of bad outputs in particular the possibility of assigning unexpected signs to shadow prices of bad outputs in addition we point out a current error in the modeling of weak disposability under a variable returns to scale technology in this paper we introduce a hybrid model to ensure the economically meaningful jointness of good and bad outputs while constraining shadow prices of bad outputs to their expected sign we argue that it is a sound compromise to model undesirable outputs with a meaningful primal dual economic interpretation finally we propose an extension to define shadow prices for undesirable outputs following the law of one price loop rule

customized advertising via a common media distributor we show that when a single media content distributor such as a television cable company or an internet provider delivers advertising messages on behalf of multiple competing brands it can sometimes utilize customized advertising to implement monopoly pricing even though such monopolistic pricing can be implemented with varying degrees of customization of commercials product revenues and consumer surplus are highest when the distributor chooses the highest level of customization feasible consumers would obviously prefer aggressive price competition in product markets however given that collusion on prices is facilitated anyway when the distributor acts as a common agent the welfare of consumers is enhanced when commercials are better aligned with their preferences

a portfolio risk analysis on electricity supply planning abstract conventional electricity planning selects from a range of alternative technologies based on the least cost method without assessing cost related risks the current approach to determining energy generation portfolios creates a preference for fossil fuel consequently this preference results in increased exposure to recent fluctuations in fossil fuel prices particularly for countries heavily depend on imported energy this paper applies portfolio theory in conventional electricity planning with taiwan as a case study the model objective is to minimize the risk weighted present value of total generation cost both the present value of generating cost and risk variance of the generating cost are considered risk of generating cost is introduced for volatile fuel prices and uncertainty of technological change and capital cost reduction the impact of risk levels on the portfolio of power generation technologies is also examined to provide some valuable policy suggestions study results indicate that replacing fossil fuel with renewable energy helps reduce generating cost risk however due to limited renewable development potential in taiwan there is an upper bound of 15 on the maximum share of renewable energy in the generating portfolio in the meantime reevaluating the current nuclear energy policy for reduced exposure to fossil fuel price fluctuations is worthwhile

establishing the role that wind generation may have in future generation portfolios assessing the correct future mix in generation portfolios has become more difficult given the introduction of emission trading schemes the recent fuel price rises and the increasing competitiveness of wind energy this paper combines analysis of generation economics load and wind generation characteristics generation adequacy and plant utilization to gain insight into the role of wind generation in desirable generation portfolios the unique characteristics of wind generation are accounted for in the analysis and sensitivity analysis is carried out with respect to discount rates carbon taxes and various fuel price scenarios results show that for a large range of future scenarios wind generation has a significant role to play in future generation portfolios in ireland mean variance portfolio theory is applied to examine the benefits of portfolio diversification in terms of avoiding exposure to volatile fuel prices analysis shows that wind generation has a further role to play in generation portfolios in this respect

an analysis of australia s large scale renewable energy target restoring market confidence in 2001 australia introduced legislation requiring investment in new renewable electricity generating capacity the legislation was significantly expanded in 2009 to give effect to a 20 renewable energy target ret importantly the policy was introduced with bipartisan support and is consistent with global policy trends in this article we examine the history of the policy and establish that the stop start nature of renewable policy development has resulted in investors withholding new capital until greater certainty is provided we utilise the methodology from simshauser and nelson 2012 to examine whether capital market efficiency losses would occur under certain policy scenarios the results show that electricity costs would increase by between 51 million and 119 million if the large scale ret is abandoned even after accounting for avoided renewable costs our conclusions are clear we find that policymakers should be guided by a high level public policy principle in relation to large scale renewable energy policy constant review is not reform

alternative measures of environmental technology structure in dea an application abstract the nonparametric data envelopment analysis dea literature on environmental efficiency ee considers handling undesirable outputs in two alternative ways either in their original forms with the assumption that these are weakly disposable or in various translated forms with the assumption that these are strongly disposable choosing a particular approach implies adoption of a particular distinct treatment of undesirable outputs and hence yields a distinct set of ee estimates to explore the effects of the interplay between choice of ee measure and specific treatment of undesirable outputs this paper attempts to generate all possible output oriented ee measures based on these two alternative approaches furthermore guided by the argument that slacks are important in identifying properly the efficiency behavior of firms it proposes two new alternative slacks based formulations of ee one based on the range directional model and the other on the generalized proportional distance function model using a confected data set of ten firms and a real life data set of 22 oecd countries our empirical analysis reveals that first ee scores are influenced not only by the choice of disposability assumption for undesirable outputs but also by the way these are treated in various translated forms second the choice of any particular treatment of undesirable outputs plays no role in influencing the rankings of firms and third our two new alternative ee formulations are at the least viable alternatives to existing ee measures in ranking firms according to their eco efficiency behavior

non parametric productivity analysis with undesirable outputs an application to the canadian pulp and paper industry this article extends the chavas cox approach to non parametric analysis by incorporating undesirable outputs to provide a more complete representation of the production technology inner and outer non parametric technology bounds are constructed the methods are illustrated with application to time series data for the canadian pulp and paper industry conventional measures that ignore changes in pollutant outputs underestimate true productivity growth further there is a large gap between estimates generated with reference to inner and outer bounds to the technology suggesting that researchers need to be aware of the limitations of results derived from analyses relying only on dea methods copyright 2001 oxford university press

white and green comparison of market based instruments to promote energy efficiency the white and green project completed under the eu save programme reviewed policies and measures to promote energy efficiency which involved analysing the experience with instruments that are already implemented and assessing innovative instruments that are proposed in particular the practicability of using white certificates energy efficiency along the same lines as green certificates renewable energy was explored several of the policies and measures were simulated using technical economic model of the markal family the results show that by 2020 it is possible to increase energy effiency by 15 at no cost without taking externalities into account if externalities are considered an increase of 30 35 with respect to the business as usual scenario is justified the wealth of information obtained through the models and analysis provides a set of recommendations for policy makers including 1 the need for closer co ordination between energy policies and environmental and climate policies 2 the opportunity to establish more ambitious targets for energy efficiency 3 the scope for increased eu co ordination 4 the extension of white certificates to the medium and low energy intensive industries 5 the need to support white certificates with accompanying actions such as running information campaigns promoting energy service companies and providing dedicated credit lines 6 the need to develop similar instruments for transport and 7 the continuing need for energy research and development c 2005 published by elsevier ltd

optimal investment portfolio in renewable energy the spanish case abstract this article presents a model for investing in renewable energies in the framework of the spanish electricity market in a way that risk is minimised for the investor while returns are maximised the model outlined here is based on an economic model for calculating cash flows intended to obtain the internal rate of return irr of the different energies being studied wind photovoltaic mini hydro and thermo electrical the irrs obtained are considered the returns on investments while their standard deviations are considered associated risks in order to minimise risk a comprehensive portfolio of investments is created that includes all of the available energies by means of a system of linear equations the solution of the linear system is graphically checked using the efficient frontier method for the different financing options several case studies within the renewable energies plan per is its spanish abbreviation that is in force in spain in the period 2005 2010 are analysed in order to illustrate the method as are other case studies using different types of financing helping us to reach the pertinent conclusions

how much market do market based instruments create an analysis for the case of white certificates in the context of economic instruments for more energy efficiency and climate protection tradable certificates have been investigated for renewable energy and for a number of emissions in contrast tradable energy efficiency or white certificates have only lately been considered as a market based tool to foster energy efficiency as compared to standards and labelling for example theoretically there is little doubt about the advantages in practice however some fundamental problems arise critical issues are the design of an efficient artificial market for white certificates its compatibility with the european emissions trading system the identification of a suitable target group for an energy efficiency obligation and the measurement of energy savings as compared to a reference use of energy we use the theoretical framework of transaction cost economics to elaborate these issues we conclude that transaction costs and investment specificity will restrict markets for white certificates in practise long term contracts rather than spot trade will be the prevailing form of governance for energy efficiency investments

efficient power generating portfolio in brazil conciliating cost emissions and risk the main purpose of this paper is to assess efficiency of the brazilian electricity generation mix proposed in the 2020 decennial plan for energy expansion dpee 2020 it evaluates estimated costs risks and co2 emissions following the mean variance portfolio theory the efficiency frontier is estimated for three co2 prices scenarios no co2 prices low co2 price and high co2 price the planned portfolio in brazil presented in the dpee 2020 is relatively close to the efficient frontier however there is still room for risk mitigation by diversifying the energy portfolio as there is currently no co2 price in brazil the tendency is that diversification increases fossil fuel share in the energy mix but the introduction of a co2 price can be an option to promote renewables this type of large general market framework can contribute to reduce market uncertainties by reducing the level of government s discretionary activism

multilateral productivity comparisons when some outputs are undesirable a nonparametric approach multilateral productivity comparisons of firms producing multiple outputs some of which are undesirable are obtained by making two modifications to the standard farrell approach to efficiency measurement the restriction that production technology satisfy strong disposability of outputs is relaxed to allow for the fact that undesirable outputs may be freely disposable and the efficiency measures are modified to allow for an asymmetric treatment of desirable and undesirable outputs performance measures that satisfy these requirements are calculated as solutions to programming problems the methodology is applied to a sample of mills producing paper and pollutants

energy saving instrument escerts in india abstract there exists a large potential in india as far as achievement of energy efficiency is concerned and it is up to the indian policy makers regulators and obligated entities to ensure that india realizes this potential to the fullest a deep commitment towards this effect is not only beneficial for the country as a whole through reduction in its carbon foot print and reduced dependence on fuel imports but will also increase the competitive edge of our industries vis a vis other countries one of the instruments for improving the overall energy efficiency that has emerged in recent times is energy saving certificates escerts the staying power of european examples in italy uk and france has demonstrated that escerts can help initiate more efficiency projects this paper discusses escerts as an instrument for reducing the energy intensity of the high energy intensive indian industries under the light of the energy conservation act 2001 and perform achieve and trade scheme under nmeee and suggests a way forward for the escerts market in india

research and deployment priorities for renewable technologies quantifying the importance of various renewable technologies for low cost high renewable electricity systems in an australian case study abstract this study aims to identify research priorities to enable low cost high renewable power systems an evolutionary program optimises the mix of technologies in 100 renewable energy portfolios re in the australian national electricity market various technologies are reduced in availability to determine their relative importance for achieving low costs the single most important factor is found to be the integration of large quantities of wind therefore wind integration is identified as a research priority in contrast photovoltaics are found to saturate the system at less than 10 of total energy in the absence of storage or demand management installation of further photovoltaics does not contribute significant further value this indicates that policies to promote utility scale photovoltaics should be considered in partnership with complementary measures such as demand side participation and storage biofuelled gas turbines are found to be important a complete absence of bioenergy increases costs by au 20 30 mwh and even having only 0 1 twh per year of bioenergy available reduces average costs by au 3 4 mwh limits on the non synchronous penetration nsp are found to be relatively expensive suggesting a significant research priority around finding alternative approaches to providing synchronous services such as inertia geothermal and concentrating solar thermal technologies do not appear essential as long as sufficient wind and peaking bioenergy is available

radial and non radial decompositions of luenberger productivity indicator with an illustrative application abstract viewing slacks as one possible source of inefficiency and that inputs have differential importance in the production process this paper develops based on the directional russell measure of inefficiency the non radial luenberger indicator this indicator is then shown as the sum of the individual input specific luenberger indicators the luenberger indicator and its various input specific indicators are also then shown as the composite measure of efficiency change and technical change this decomposition enables the researcher to empirically examine the contributions of each factor input towards the productivity change and its components efficiency change and technical change our proposed decomposition scheme is then empirically illustrated to analyze the eco productivity performance behavior of the 22 oecd countries during the period 1995 2004 our results indicate that first the productivity change estimates yielded from the non radial luenberger indicator are different from those yielded from its radial counterpart when slacks are present second most of these countries are found experiencing productivity growth due to technical progress alone and finally as regards the order of input specific contributions towards productivity growth capital contributes the most followed by savings in emissions and labor respectively

assessing the value of wind generation in future carbon constrained electricity industries this paper employs a novel monte carlo based generation portfolio assessment tool to explore the implications of increasing wind penetration and carbon prices within future electricity generation portfolios under considerable uncertainty this tool combines optimal generation mix techniques with monte carlo simulation and portfolio analysis methods to determine expected overall generation costs associated cost uncertainty and expected co2 emissions for different possible generation portfolios a case study of an electricity industry with coal combined cycle gas turbines ccgt open cycle gas turbines ocgt and wind generation options that faces uncertain future fossil fuel prices carbon pricing electricity demand and plant construction costs is presented to illustrate some of the key issues associated with growing wind penetrations the case study uses half hourly demand and wind generation data from south eastern australia and regional estimates of new build plant costs and characteristics results suggest that although wind generation generally increases overall industry costs it reduces associated cost uncertainties and co2 emissions however there are some cases in which wind generation can reduce the overall costs of generation portfolios the extent to which wind penetration affects industry expected costs and uncertainties depends on the level of carbon price and the conventional technology mix in the portfolios

malmquist indices of productivity growth during the deregulation of norwegian banking 1980 89 productivity growth during the deregulation of the norwegian banking industry is studied within the framework of data envelopment analysis which explicitly allows for multiple outputs introducing malmquist indices for productivity growth total growth can be decomposed into frontier growth and change in each bank s distance to the frontier both the total growth index and its components can be consistently chained over time we find productivity regress at the average bank prior to the deregulation but rapid growth when deregulation took place deregulation also led to less dispersion of productivity levels within the industry

portfolio applications in electricity markets review private investor and manager perspective trends abstract the private sector plays a major role in the expansion and operation of power systems in most countries especially those running liberalized electricity markets policymakers have the task of inducing private agents through their regulatory designs to make decisions that point toward social welfare maximization conversely it is a task of private agents to protect themselves against the risks of the sector including regulatory risks international fuel price uncertainty climate change policies natural resource availability electricity demand uncertainty co2 clearance prices etc instead of hiding all of these risks within the total project costs and losing competitiveness private agents can use diversification as a strategy to deal with them this paper presents a review of the main applications voids and challenges of portfolio optimization for two key agents of the private sector investors and managers the problem of the investor is to design a technology portfolio to invest in that maximizes its expected returns and limits risks while the manager has to design a portfolio of financial physical instruments long term contracts futures etc to sell buy electricity and hedge against price risks we have found two fundamental issues in the literature the first and most important is excessive confidence in historical data and statistical analysis for predicting future price behavior for a changing future in detriment of more structural analysis structural analysis can include particularities of modern power systems such as future transmission changes congestion operational constraints ramps new entrants new technologies and new demand grow patterns that cannot be taken into account by simply analyzing price historical values the second is the omission of renewable complementarities which is a proven characteristic of dispersed renewable plants that may have important risk mitigation effects although it has largely been ignored in portfolio analysis due to insufficient data modeling limitations and computational complexity

efficiency based rank assessment for electric power industry a combined use of data envelopment analysis dea and dea discriminant analysis da abstract this study discusses a combined use of dea data environment analysis and dea da discriminant analysis to determine the efficiency based rank of energy firms this type of performance evaluation is important because we often have a difficulty in accessing a large sample on energy firms to derive reliable empirical results the proposed approach is useful in dealing with such a limited number of energy firms often found in previous dea studies on energy industries in the world the proposed approach uses dea to classify energy firms into efficient and inefficient groups based upon their efficiency scores then it utilizes dea da to assess their efficiency scores and ranks in this stage we can find an adjusted efficiency score for each energy firm the proposed approach provides us with the following analytical capabilities all of which cannot be found in a conventional use of dea in assessing energy firms first the proposed dea approach can avoid zero in all multipliers on efficient energy firms by incorporating scsc strong complementary slackness condition so that it can handle an occurrence of multiple reference sets and multiple projections the dea result classifies all energy firms into efficient and inefficient groups second dea da applied to the two groups evaluates all energy firms by an industry wide evaluation not depending upon a limited number of efficient energy firms in a reference set as found in a conventional use of dea the analytical capability can reduce the number of efficient energy firms third the proposed approach can provide their efficiency based ranking scores finally we can conduct a rank sum test based upon their ranking scores to obtain a statistical inference as an application this study uses the proposed approach to examine the performance of japanese electric power industry we find two economic implications one of the two implications is that no major change has occurred in the operational performance of japanese electric power industry because of japanese sluggish economy from 2005 to 2009 the other implication indicates that there are strategic differences in the operation of japanese electric power firms after the liberalization

environmental assessment by dea radial measurement u s coal fired power plants in iso independent system operator and rto regional transmission organization abstract the economic concept of weak and strong disposability on undesirable outputs dominated the previous discussions on dea data envelopment analysis radial measurement for environmental assessment this study reexamines the economic concept from the perspective of corporate strategies on how to adapt a regulation change on undesirable outputs the economic concept of disposability conventionally accepted by production economists is replaced by natural and managerial disposability in this study the natural disposability implies an environmental strategy that a firm attempts to decrease an input vector to reduce a vector of undesirable outputs given the decreased input vector the firm attempts to increase a vector of desirable outputs as much as possible this type of strategy indicates negative adaptation meanwhile the managerial disposability indicates an opposite strategy by increasing the input vector this disposability expresses an environmental strategy by which a firm considers a regulation change on undesirable outputs as a new business opportunity a firm attempts to improve its unified operational and environmental performance by utilizing new technology and or new management the strategy indicates positive adaptation considering the two types of disposability this study discusses how to measure unified efficiency under natural and managerial disposability by dea radial models to document the practicality of the proposed dea environmental assessment this study applies it to compare the performance of u s coal fired power plants under isos rtos independent system operators regional transmission organizations with that of the other power plants not belonging to any organization this study identifies two empirical findings one of the two findings is that the latter coal fired power plants outperform the former power plants belonging to isos rtos in terms of three efficiency measures this result indicates that isos and rtos do not provide an effective coordination for coal fired power plants at the level that can be found in the other power plants the other finding is that there is technological improvement in the operation of coal fired power plants

fuel mix diversification incentives in liberalized electricity markets a mean variance portfolio theory approach monte carlo simulations of gas coal and nuclear plant investment returns are used as inputs of a mean variance portfolio optimization to identify optimal base load generation portfolios for large electricity generators in liberalized electricity markets we study the impact of fuel electricity and co2 price risks and their degree of correlation on optimal plant portfolios high degrees of correlation between gas and electricity prices as observed in most european markets reduce gas plant risks and make portfolios dominated by gas plant more attractive long term power purchase contracts and or a lower cost of capital can rebalance optimal portfolios towards more diversified portfolios with larger shares of nuclear and coal plants

examining the drivers of total factor productivity change with an illustrative example of 14 eu countries abstract based on the different models developed by korhonen and luptacik korhonen p luptacik m 2004 eco efficiency analysis of power plants an extension of data envelopment analysis european journal of operational research 154 437 46 this contribution centers on the development of an intertemporal comparison in order to analyze eco efficiency change over time in this setup two model variants by korhonen and luptacik 2004 are used in order to provide deeper insights concerning the driving forces for the change in the eco efficiency which bias in technical change can be observed is it more input saving or pollution reducing for illustration purposes the proposed approach is used to analyze the performance of 14 countries of the european union for the period 1995 2004 an average eco productivity growth of 22 is observed the estimated contribution of improved use of input is 20 and that of reduced relation of greenhouse gas emissions is 23 therefore it is concluded that on average the eco productivity growth is more driven by improved environmental conditions

rationality of energy efficiency improvement targets under the pat scheme in india a case of thermal power plants abstract the market based perform achieve and trade scheme was introduced in india to enhance the energy efficiency of energy intensive sectors and for thermal power plants by reducing their specific energy consumption within the framework of a tradable certificate scheme international experience suggests that effectiveness of such schemes is greatly influenced by the assigned targets of the obligated units setting rational targets is thus a key aspect of successful implementation of the scheme in the present study we examine the rationality of the targets set for the power sector of india based on comparing it with energy saving potential of the plants and the targets assigned to the respective plants data envelopment analysis models are used to determine relative efficiency and energy saving potential the study results indicate that in most cases i the targets are much less than the actual potentials of the thermal power sector ii there exist substantial inefficiencies within the system in both energy use and managerial dexterity and iii if the sector realizes its full potential then the energy saving certificate market may witness a surplus of 4 7 million certificates on account of thermal power sector alone

power sector investment risk and renewable energy a japanese case study using portfolio risk optimization method the conventional pricing mechanism used for electricity systematically hides huge investment risks which are embedded in the overall cost of production although consumers are often unaware of these risks they present a large financial burden on the economy this study applies the portfolio optimization concepts from the field of finance to demonstrate the scope of greater utilization of renewable energies re while reducing the embedded investment risk in the conventional electricity sector and its related financial burden this study demonstrates that re investment can compensate for the risks associated with the total input costs such costs being external volatilities of fossil fuel prices capital costs operating and maintenance costs and the carbon costs by means of example this case study shows that japan could in theory obtain up to 9 of its electricity supply from green sources as compared to the present 1 37 based on the utilization of a portfolio risk analysis evaluation explicit comparison of the monetary values of the investment risks of conventional and renewable energy sources shows that renewable energies have high market competitiveness the study concludes with a recommendation that as a business objective investors would benefit by focusing on electricity supply portfolio risk minimization instead of cost this could also inherently increase the supply of renewable energy in the market

using renewables to hedge against future electricity industry uncertainties an australian case study abstract a generation portfolio modelling was employed to assess the expected costs cost risk and emissions of different generation portfolios in the australian national electricity market nem under highly uncertain gas prices carbon pricing policy and electricity demand outcomes were modelled for 396 possible generation portfolios each with 10 000 simulations of possible fuel and carbon prices and electricity demands in 2030 the lowest expected cost generation portfolio includes 60 renewable energy increasing the renewable proportion to 75 slightly increased expected cost by 0 2 mwh but significantly decreased the standard deviation of cost representing the cost risk increasing the renewable proportion from the present 15 to 75 by 2030 is found to decrease expected wholesale electricity costs by 17 mwh fossil fuel intensive portfolios have substantial cost risk associated with high uncertainty in future gas and carbon prices renewables can effectively mitigate cost risk associated with gas and carbon price uncertainty this is found to be robust to a wide range of carbon pricing assumptions this modelling suggests that policy mechanisms to promote an increase in renewable generation towards a level of 75 by 2030 would minimise costs to consumers and mitigate the risk of extreme electricity prices due to uncertain gas and carbon prices

a monte carlo based decision support tool for assessing generation portfolios in future carbon constrained electricity industries abstract this paper presents a novel decision support tool for assessing future generation portfolios in an increasingly uncertain electricity industry the tool combines optimal generation mix concepts with monte carlo simulation and portfolio analysis techniques to determine expected overall industry costs associated cost uncertainty and expected co 2 emissions for different generation portfolio mixes the tool can incorporate complex and correlated probability distributions for estimated future fossil fuel costs carbon prices plant investment costs and demand including price elasticity impacts the intent of this tool is to facilitate risk weighted generation investment and associated policy decision making given uncertainties facing the electricity industry applications of this tool are demonstrated through a case study of an electricity industry with coal ccgt and ocgt facing future uncertainties results highlight some significant generation investment challenges including the impacts of uncertain and correlated carbon and fossil fuel prices the role of future demand changes in response to electricity prices and the impact of construction cost uncertainties on capital intensive generation the tool can incorporate virtually any type of input probability distribution and support sophisticated risk assessments of different portfolios including downside economic risks it can also assess portfolios against multi criterion objectives such as greenhouse emissions as well as overall industry costs

a multi criteria evaluation framework for tradable white certificate schemes recent years have witnessed regained political momentum on energy efficiency and interest in establishing markets is growing as a result tradable white certificate twc schemes of differing design have been implemented in great britain italy and france much attention is being paid to justifying and evaluating such schemes in this paper we develop and apply a multi criteria framework for evaluating twc schemes an approach that attempts to cover their individual design features a broad evaluation is conducted regarding energy saving and environmental effectiveness economic efficiency cost effectiveness transaction costs political feasibility administrative burden and technical change the results show the design and performance of twc schemes to be case and context specific and generalisations are thus inappropriate this evaluation supports the cost effectiveness modelled for the british scheme and the assumption that a twc scheme is an economically efficient policy instrument for the other more complex twc schemes more data and experience are needed to judge their ex post merit on the whole the proposed multi criteria evaluation requires considerable data and complementary methods however the framework improves the understanding of the broad effects and attributes of twc schemes it deals with various empirical and normative aspects that can be applied in their evaluation

slacks based efficiency measures for modeling environmental performance we develop two slacks based efficiency measures for modeling environmental performance on the basis of environmental dea technology of the two measures one is a composite index with a higher discriminating power for modeling economic environmental performance and the other can be used to estimate the impacts of environmental regulations we apply the proposed measures to model the co2 emissions of 30 oecd countries from 1998 to 2002 and present the results obtained

dea approach for unified efficiency measurement assessment of japanese fossil fuel power generation this study discusses a new dea data envelopment analysis approach to measure the unified operational and environmental efficiency of energy firms it is widely known that they produce not only desirable good outputs e g electricity but also undesirable bad outputs e g co2 as a result of their plant operations the proposed approach incorporates an output separation desirable and undesirable outputs for the performance evaluation of energy firms in addition to the output separation this study separates inputs into energy and non energy inputs consequently the proposed approach incorporates not only the output separation but also the input separation within a computational framework of dea non radial measurement this study compares the proposed approach with other previous dea approaches used for the performance evaluation of energy firms after the methodological comparison this study applies the proposed approach for measuring the unified efficiency of japanese fossil fuel power generation this empirical study confirms that the implementation of kyoto protocol 2005 has not been effective on the unified efficiency of japanese fossil fuel power generation during the observed period 2004 2008 although the empirical result is inconsistent with the current japanese environmental policy under kyoto protocol it contains policy implications for guiding the future direction of japanese environmental policy on the electric power industry