quality disclosure under consumer loss aversion consumers experience a sense of loss when a product s quality does not match their expectations to alleviate consumer loss aversion cla firms can disclose information to reduce consumers uncer

temporary boycotts as self fulfilling disruptions of markets abstract this paper demonstrates how equilibrium involving anticipated boycotts and actual boycotts can occur even though consumers are negligible and only care about the price they pay and the timing of purchase the model is a two period durable goods monopoly game with demand uncertainty first a non boycott equilibrium is characterized under regularity assumptions ruling out multiplicative uncertainty there are additional equilibria in which the firm sets a low price in period 0 based on the anticipation that consumers will boycott whenever the price exceeds a threshold also the augmented game with a publicly observed sunspot has equilibria in which boycotts occur on the equilibrium path with positive probability

convergence to efficiency in a simple market with incomplete information a model of trade with m buyers and m sellers is considered in which price is set to equate revealed demand and supply in a bayesian nash equilibrium each trader acts not as a price taker but instead misrepresents his true demand supply to influence price in his favor this causes inefficiency we show that in any equilibrium the amount by which a trader misreports is o 1 m and the corresponding inefficiency is o 1 m2 the indeterminacy and the inefficiency that is caused by the traders bargaining behavior in small markets thus rapidly vanishes as the market increases in size

a micro analytic threshold model for the timing of first purchases of durable goods a micro analytic threshold model to describe the timing of household purchases of consumer durable goods is developed and tested the model incorporates unobserved heterogeneity via a generalized gamma distribution and accounts for time varying covariates further we employ estimation methods applicable or purchase data observed at periodic intervals of time the model outperforms other competing models for predicting the timing of purchase of durable goods in terms of fit and predictive ability in particular this model outperforms the logit model and the diffusion model the generalized gamma timing model predicts well the time to purchase the durable good we show how it can be employed for micro segmentation of households several research directions and applications are described

conspicuous consumption and sophisticated thinking consumers purchase conspicuous goods to satisfy not only material needs but also social needs such as prestige in an attempt to meet these social needs producers of conspicuous goods like cars perfumes and watches highlight the exclusivity of their products in this paper we propose a monopoly model of conspicuous consumption using the rational expectations framework and then examine how purchase decisions are affected by the desire for exclusivity and conformity we show that snobs can have an upward sloping demand curve but only in the presence of consumers who are weakly followers laboratory tests lend support for this model prediction and for the rational expectations framework the experimental results suggest that subjects used some degree of sophisticated thinking to arrive at their first period decisions their behavior in the subsequent trials however can be adequately captured by a purely adaptive learning mechanism we discuss the implications of consumer learning for optimal dynamic pricing policy by a monopolist

equivalence of auctions and posted prices abstract we determine the equilibrium in two transaction mechanisms auctions and posted prices agents choose whether to participate in markets where trades are consummated by auctions or in markets where sellers post prices we show that the selling mechanisms are practically equivalent previous studies have shown that auction markets emerge as a unique evolutionary stable equilibrium when compared to bargaining markets posted price markets dominate bargaining markets similarly journal of economic literature classification numbers c78 c73 d44

revenue management with forward looking buyers a seller wishes to sell multiple goods by a deadline for example the end of a season potential buyers enter over time and can strategically time their purchases each period the profit maximizing mechanism awards units to the buyers with the highest valuations exceeding a sequence of cutoffs we show that these cutoffs are deterministic depending only on the inventory and time remaining in the continuous time limit the optimal mechanism can be implemented by posting anonymous prices when incoming demand decreases over time the optimal cutoffs satisfy a one period look ahead property and prices are defined by an intuitive differential equation

emotional bidders an analytical and experimental examination of consumers behavior in a priceline like reverse auction e commerce has proved to be fertile ground for new business models which may be patented for up to 20 years and have potentially far reaching impact on the e commerce landscape one such electronic market is the reverse auction model popularized by priceline com there is still uncertainty surrounding the survival of such new electronic markets currently available on the internet understanding user behavior is necessary for better assessment of these sites survival this paper adds to economic analysis a formal representation of the emotions evoked by the auction process specifically the excitement of winning if a bid is accepted and the frustration of losing if it is not we generate and empirically test a number of insights related to 1 the impact of expected excitement at winning and frustration at losing on bids across consumers and biddings scenarios and 2 the dynamic nature of the bidding behavior that is how winning and losing in previous bids influence their future bidding behavior

biases in valuation vs usage of innovative product features we investigate biases in product valuation and usage decisions that arise when consumers consider a new generation of a product that offers an expanded set of capabilities of uncertain value two experiments using a novel computer game show evidence of a valuation usage disparity participants display a high willingness to pay for a new version of the game that offers a new set of controls but fail to fully exercise the option to use these controls after purchase this discrepancy is attributed to a fundamental difference in how new capabilities are valued at the time of purchase versus use consumer usage decisions appear to be driven by such myopic concerns as a desire to avoid short term learning costs whereas purchase decisions often fail to take into account the factors that drive usage and are further inflated by global optimism in the future usefulness of new capabilities we show that this lack of foresight can be explained by an intertemporal judgment model in which consumers attempt to value

research note trading up a strategic analysis of reference group effects reference groups influence product and brand evaluations especially when the product is a publicly consumed luxury good marketers of such luxury goods need to carefully balance two important social forces 1 the desire of leaders to distinguish themselves from followers and 2 the countervailing desire of followers to assimilate with leaders in this paper we examine the theoretical implications of these social forces for firm prices product design and target consumer selection we show that the presence of reference group effects can motivate firms to add costly features which provide limited or no functional benefit to consumers furthermore reference group effects can induce product proliferation on one hand and motivate firms to offer limited editions on the other hand we find that offering a limited edition can increase sales and profits in some cases reference group effects can even lead to a buying frenzy

modelling the consumer s decision to replace durable goods a hazard function approach this article analysis the consumer s durable good replacement decision using hazard models in contrast to the typical limited dependent variable model often used in durable good demand studies hazard models allow for much richer replacement to illustrate the technique a recursive system consisting of a regression equation and a hazard model is used to examine home heating system replacement decisions by residencial customers of a major southeasten us electric utility the results indicate that overall system replacement rates decline over time and that the probability of replacement for specific households depends negatively on the age of the head of household abd the availability of natural gas and positively on system age and higher than expected household energy use

multiperson tournaments an experimental examination modern hierarchical organizations like corporations must motivate agents to work hard given their pyramid structure it is not surprising that one commonly used motivator is the promotion tournament in such tournaments agents compete to advance to positions at higher organizational levels though these tournaments are common little research has empirically looked at the interface of organizational structure and tournament design this paper aims to take a step in filling this void by comparing the performance of various tournament designs using controlled laboratory techniques

managing online auctions current business and research issues the internet s computational power and flexibility have made auctions a widespread and integral part of both consumer and business markets though online auctions are a multi billion dollar annual activity with a growing variety of sophisticated trading mechanisms scientific research on them is at an early stage this paper analyzes the current state of management science research on online auctions it develops a broad research agenda for issues such as the behavior of online auction participants the optimal design of online auctions the integration of auctions into the ongoing operation of firms and the use of the data generated by online auctions to inform future trading mechanisms these research areas will draw from applied and theoretical work spanning management science economics and information systems

auctioning incentive contracts this paper draws a remarkably simple bridge between auction theory and incentive theory it considers the auctioning of an indivisible project among several fi rms the firms have private information about their future cost at th e bidding stage and the selected firm ex post invests in cost reduct ion the authors show that 1 the optimal auction can be implemented by a dominant strategy auction that uses information about both the first bid and the second bid 2 the winner faces a linear incenti ve contract 3 the fixed transfer to the winner decreases with his announced expected cost and increases with the second lowest announce d expected cost and 4 the share of cost overruns borne by the winn er decreases with the winner s announced expected cost copyright 1987 by university of chicago press

distributional preferences in probabilistic and share contests we analyze nash equilibria of probabilistic and share contests where players have distributional preferences if players are sufficiently similar distributional preferences create multiple equilibria for the case of only mildly heterogeneous players equilibrium effort can be lower as well as higher than effort exerted by players with selfish preferences these findings can explain the following three anomalies observed in empirical tests of probabilistic and share contests the large variance of effort levels overspreading individual spending that exceeds the nash equilibrium prediction overspending and aggregate spending that exceeds the value of the prize overdissipation if players are sufficiently heterogeneous the game has a unique equilibrium that is more egalitarian than the selfish nash equilibrium it turns out that the less talented competitor may win the larger share of the prize if his inequality aversion is sufficiently strong we analyze how the equilibria evolve if the number of players becomes larger and how sequential moves influence behavior two new insights follow from the analysis of the sequential move game first sequential moves act as a coordination device in case of multiple simultaneous equilibria and second inequality aversion of the more egalitarian player can be used as a commitment device for low effort this effect can reverse the conventional wisdom that the underdog should lead

why do salespeople spend so much time lobbying for low prices in business to business settings a company s sales force often spends considerable time lobbying internally for authorization to charge lower prices these internal lobbying activities are time consuming and divert attention from other tasks such as interacting with customers we explain why internal lobbying activities serve an important role they help the firm elicit truthful reporting of demand information from the sales force as a result it may be profitable for the firm to require lobbying and make the requirement onerous even though lobbying is a nonproductive activity that creates an additional administrative burden and imposes a deadweight loss

foundations of dominant strategy mechanisms wilson 1987 criticizes applied game theory s reliance on common knowledge as sumptions in reaction to wilson s critique the recent literature of mechanism design has adopted the goal of finding detail free mechanisms in order to eliminate this re liance in practice this has meant restricting attention to simple mechanisms such as dominant strategy mechanisms however there has been little theoretical foundation for this approach in particular it is not clear the search for an optimal mechanism that does not rely on common knowledge assumption would lead to simpler mechanisms rather than more complicated ones this paper tries to fill the void in the context of an expected revenue maximizing auctioneer we investigate some foundations for using simple dominant strategy auctions

designing price contracts for boundedly rational customers does the number of blocks matter when designing price contracts one of the major questions confronting managers is how many blocks there should be in the contract we investigate this question in the setting of a manufacturer retailer dyad facing a linear deterministic consumer demand theoretical marketing models predict that the manufacturer s profits rise dramatically when the number of blocks in the contract is increased from one to two because both channel efficiency and its share of channel profits increase however increasing the number of blocks to three yields no incremental profits we test these predictions experimentally and find that increasing the number of blocks from one to two raises channel efficiency but not the manufacturer s share of profits surprisingly having three blocks in the contract increases channel efficiency even further and also gives the manufacturer a slightly higher share of profits we show that these results can be explained by a quantal response equilibrium model in which the manufacturer accounts for noisy best response due to nonpecuniary payoff components in the retailer s utility we also show that the retailer is sensitive to the counterfactual profits it could have earned if it were charged a lower marginal price for earlier blocks in the multiple block contract

bundle size pricing as an approximation to mixed bundling multiproduct firms can set separate prices for all possible bundled combinations of its products mixed bundling however this is impractical for firms with more than a few products because the number of prices increases exponentially with the number of products we find that simple pricing strategies are often nearly optimal specifically we show that bundle size pricing setting prices that depend only on the size of bundle purchased tends to be more profitable than offering the individual products priced separately and tends to closely approximate the profits from mixed bundling jel d24 d42 l11 l13 l25

incentives versus reciprocity insights from a field experiment abstractthe authors conduct a field experiment in which they vary the sales force compensation scheme at an asian enterprise that sells consumer durable goods with variation generated by the experimental treatments the authors model sales force performance to identify the effectiveness of various forms of conditional and unconditional compensation they account for salesperson heterogeneity using a hierarchical bayesian framework to estimate the model they find conditional compensation in the form of quota bonus incentives to improve performance however such compensation may lead to lower future performance the authors find little difference in effectiveness between a quota bonus plan and punitive bonus plans framed as a penalty for not achieving quota they find that unconditional compensation in the form of reciprocity is effective at improving sales force performance only when it is given as a delayed reward however the effectiveness of this plan decreases with repeated exposure the authors

quasi robust multiagent contracts a criticism of mechanism design theory is that the optimal mechanism designed for one environment can produce drastically different actions outcomes and payoffs in a second even slightly different environment in this sense the theoretically optimal mechanisms usually studied are not robust to study robust mechanisms while maintaining an expected utility maximization approach we study a multiagent model in which the mechanism must be designed before the environment is as well understood as is usually assumed the particular model is of an auction setting with binary private values our main result is that if the prior belief about the correlation in the agents values is diffuse enough the optimal bayesian nash auction must also satisfy dominant strategy incentive constraints furthermore when the optimal auction does provide dominant strategy incentives it takes one of two forms i if perfect correlation and negative correlation are excluded as possibilities the auction incorporates all information about the prior belief over the possible correlations and ii if either perfect correlation or negative correlation is a possibility the auction does not incorporate any correlation information and can be described as a modified vickrey auction

revenue maximization with a single sample abstract this paper pursues auctions that are prior independent the goal is to design an auction such that whatever the underlying valuation distribution its expected revenue is almost as large as that of an optimal auction tailored for that distribution we propose the prior independent single sample mechanism which is essentially the vickrey clarke groves vcg mechanism supplemented with reserve prices chosen at random from participants bids we prove that under reasonably general assumptions this mechanism simultaneously approximates all bayesian optimal mechanisms for all valuation distributions conceptually our analysis shows that even a single sample from a distribution some bidder s valuation is sufficient information to obtain near optimal expected revenue

approximation in mechanism design with interdependent values abstract this paper studies the revenue maximization problem in environments wherein buyers have interdependent values and correlated types we show that 1 when the system of feasible sets is a matroid and buyer valuations satisfy a single crossing condition the generalized vickrey clarke groves mechanisms with lazy reserves vcg l are ex post incentive compatible and ex post individually rational 2 if in addition the valuation distribution satisfies a generalized monotone hazard rate condition the vcg l mechanism with conditional monopoly reserves is approximately optimal then we construct an ascending auction that implements the truth telling equilibrium of a vcg l mechanism in ex post equilibrium finally we discuss the connection between the vcg l mechanisms and greedy algorithms studied in lehmann et al 2002 and deferred acceptance auctions studied in milgrom and segal 2014 and the impact of competition by proving a bulow and klemperer 1996 type result

unobservable effects and business performance while unobservable factors such as corporate culture access to scarce resources management skill and luck can be postulated to be principal determinants of business success their effects are all but ignored in studies of business performance this study making use of the pims data base reports empirical evidence indicating that failure to control for unobservable factors influencing profitability both biases and exaggerates the effect of strategic factors indeed the influence of unobservable factors is so pervasive as to invalidate many of the conclusions drawn from studies failing to control for their effects

auctions versus posted price selling two popular selling methods posted price selling and auctions are compared here in an independent private values model without auctioning costs auctioning is always optimal when auctioning is costly auctions are still preferable if the marginal revenue curve is sufficiently steep the global steepness of the marginal revenue curve is found to coincide with the dispersion around the mean for a number of standard distributions finally the prices of the monopoly seller and of the social optimum are compared copyright 1993 by american economic association

a structural model of competing sellers auctions and posted prices in an original data set of goods listed for sale online i observe that both auctions and posted prices are popular with buyers and sellers in the compact disc market to explain why these two mechanisms coexist i estimate a structural model of competing sellers who differ in the value of their outside options buyers are allowed to value auctioned and posted price goods differently but the estimated value distributions suggest that differences across buyers do not explain the mechanism coexistence that i observe in contrast differences across sellers outside options are important the value of the outside option segments the market with high outside option sellers choosing to post a fixed price there are two key forces at work that drive this empirical result first competition between sellers favors coexistence over an auction only or a posted price only marketplace because sellers prefer to be in a market with fewer rivals second sellers with more valuable outside options prefer the posted price mechanism because posted price goods sell less often than auctioned goods but at a higher price as a result a larger outside option reduces the loss from not selling and favors the posted price mechanism

constructive consumer choice processes consumer decision making has been a focal interest in consumer research and consideration of current marketplace trends e g technological change an information explosion indicates that this topic will continue to be critically important we argue that consumer choice is inherently constructive due to limited processing capacity consumers often do not have well defined existing preferences but construct them using a variety of strategies contingent on task demands after describing constructive choice consumer decision tasks and decision strategies we provide an integrative framework for understanding constructive choice review evidence for constructive consumer choice in light of that framework and identify knowledge gaps that suggest opportunities for additional research

efficiency of large private value auctions we consider discriminatory and uniform price auctions for multiple identical units of a good players have private values possibly asymmetrically distributed and for multiple units our setting allows for aggregate uncertainty about demand and supply in this setting equlibria generally will be inefficient despite this we show that such auctions become arbitrarily close to efficient if they are large and use this to derive an asymptotic characterization of revenue and bidding behavior

investigating household purchase timing decisions a conditional hazard function approach the purchase timing decision is an important component of the dynamics of a household s purchase behavior this decision is influenced by marketing and other variables and the modeling of this dependence has recently received attention in the literature in this paper we build on previous studies and develop a comprehensive stochastic model that incorporates the major factors influencing interpurchase times specifically we use a generalized version of cox s proportional hazard model to test among competing probability distributions for the interpurchase times while incorporating effects due to marketing variables observed household characteristics and unobserved heterogeneity across households the empirical finding from analyzing the iri coffee data suggests that the interpurchase times cannot be adequately described by probability distributions such as exponential erlang 2 or weibull the effects of unobserved heterogeneity are significant and they impact the estimates of the effects of the covariates we also find that a nonparametric procedure for estimating the effects of unobserved heterogeneity provides the best overall fit to the data and yields covariate estimates that are more consistent with prior expectations our model is validated by replicating the substantive empirical findings on an additional product category

relationship organization and price delegation an experimental study price delegation to the salesforce is a practice widely adopted by firms this paper examines the relationship between price delegation and managerial profits using a laboratory economics experiment a novel feature of our experiment is that we study how varying the relationship organization of the sales manager and salesperson to allow for 1 requests by the salesperson for the manager to choose price delegation and for 2 the manager to award a small bonus after observing the salesperson s decisions can affect behavior the results show that contrary to the theoretical prediction managers choose price delegation frequently and salespeople respond reciprocally leading to higher manager profits under price delegation moreover this behavior increases when requests and bonuses are allowed we show that a behavioral economics model that incorporates positive reciprocity can explain these results well data as supplemental material are available at http dx doi org 10 1287 mnsc 2013 1778 this paper was accepted by pradeep chintagunta marketing

the timing of repeat purchases of consumer durable goods the role of functional bases of consumer attitudes abstract in an attempt to bring consumer psychology theories into research on the timing of repurchase of consumer durables the authors suggest that attitude functions knowledge value expressive social adjustive and utilitarian can help explain and predict interpurchase intervals adopting an interactionist perspective the authors propose that the effect of the attitude functions is contingent on contextual factors which they theorize as the nature of the product along public private and luxury necessity dimensions and the nature of the decision forced or unforced purchase decision hypothesis testing is facilitated by survey data on actual purchase decisions and hazard models that incorporate individual heterogeneity the results support the suggested role of attitude functions in explaining and predicting interpurchase intervals and suggest means by which managers can position their products to shorten interpurchase intervals

the effectiveness of english auctions abstract we study the performance of the english auction under different assumptions about the seller s degree of bayesian sophistication we define the effectiveness of an auction as the ratio between the expected revenue it generates for the seller and the expected valuation of the object to the bidder with the highest valuation total surplus we identify tight lower bounds on the effectiveness of the english auction for general private values environments and for private values environments where bidders valuations are non negatively correlated for example when the seller faces 12 bidders who the seller believes have non negatively correlated valuations whose expectations are at least as high as 60 of the maximal possible valuation an english auction with no reserve price generates an expected price that is more than 80 of the value of the object to the bidder with the highest valuation

pricing of conspicuous goods a competitive analysis of social effects abstract social needs play an important role in the purchase of conspicuous goods in this article the authors extend traditional economic models to accommodate social needs such as desire for uniqueness and conformism and examine their implications for pricing conspicuous goods first in the context of a duopoly the authors identify the conditions under which the desire for uniqueness can increase demand among some consumers as the price of a product increases second the authors show that though the desire for uniqueness leads to higher prices and firm profits a desire for conformity leads to lower prices and profits third the authors find that consumers purchase high quality products not because of their desire for uniqueness but despite it finally marketers of conspicuous goods may find it beneficial not to emphasize the functional differences among their products when the need for uniqueness is high in a laboratory test the authors find support for the claim that demand for a product amo

intention based fairness preferences in two player contests we analyze equilibria of two player contests where players have intention based preferences we find that players invest more effort compared to the case with selfish preferences and are even willing to exert effort when the monetary value of the prize converges to zero as a consequence overdissipation occurs if the value of the prize is sufficiently small

pricing in the online invoice trading market first empirical evidence abstract in recent years online invoice trading has gained importance in providing smes with short term financing in this paper we present first empirical evidence concerning the question whether the risk of payment difficulties is appropriately reflected in the pricing variables to this end we investigate predictors of default of online invoice trading platforms we analyze both the probability of default and the loss rate and find that the interest rate the duration and the percentage funded have good predictive power furthermore we show that the pricing mechanism auction vs fixed prices helps to explain defaults on online invoice trading platforms

designing pricing contracts for boundedly rational customers does the framing of the fixed fee matter the format of pricing contracts varies substantially across business contexts a major variable being whether a contract imposes a fixed fee payment this paper examines how the use of the fixed fee in pricing contracts affects market outcomes of a manufacturer retailer channel standard economic theories predict that channel efficiency increases with the introduction of the fixed fee and is invariant to its framing we conduct a laboratory experiment to test these predictions surprisingly the introduction of the fixed fee fails to increase channel efficiency moreover the framing of the fixed fee does make a difference an opaque frame as quantity discounts achieves higher channel efficiency than a salient frame as a two part tariff although these two contractual formats are theoretically equivalent to account for these anomalies we generalize the standard economic model by allowing the retailer s utilities to be reference dependent so that the up front fixed fee payment is perceived as a loss and the subsequent retail profits as a gain we embed this reference dependent utility function in a quantal response equilibrium framework where the retailer is allowed to make decision mistakes due to computational complexity the key prediction of this behavioral model is that channel efficiency decreases with loss aversion for sufficiently nash rational retailers consistent with this prediction the estimated loss aversion coefficient is 1 37 in the two part tariff condition significantly higher than 1 27 in the quantity discount condition at the same time loss aversion dominates contract complexity in explaining the data lastly we conduct a follow up experiment to confirm the central role of loss aversion as a behavioral driver in one condition the retailer becomes less loss averse when we temporally compress the fixed fee payment and the realization of retail profits which supports the loss aversion theory in the other condition the retailer s contract acceptance rate does not decline when we reward the manufacturer a higher cash payment for each experimental point earned which rules out the competing hypothesis that the retailer rejects contract offers due to fairness concerns

correlated information and mechanism design in models of asymmetric information possession of private information leads to rents for the possessors this induces mechanism designers to distort away from efficiency the authors show that this is an artifact of the presumption that information is independently distributed rent extraction in a large class of mechanism design games is analyzed and a necessary and sufficient condition for arbitrarily small rents to private information is provided additionally the two person bargaining game is shown to have an efficient solution under first order stochastic dominance and a hazard rate condition similar conditions allow full rent extraction in milgrom weber auctions

sorting versus screening search frictions and competing mechanisms in a market where sellers compete by posting trading mechanisms we allow for a general search technology and show that its features crucially affect the equilibrium mechanism price posting prevails when meetings are rival i e when a meeting by one buyer reduces another buyer s meeting probability under price posting buyers reveal their type by sorting ex ante only if the meeting technology is sufficiently non rival price posting is not an equilibrium multiple buyer types then visit the same sellers who screen ex post through auctions

tiers in one sided matching markets theory and experimental investigation the design of a matching market may affect behavior in prematch stages in some settings forward looking agents might purchase low priced properties with the intention of trading up from a design standpoint such behavior is undesirable we investigate a tiered structure as a potential solution using a model that endogenizes prematch acquisition decisions we show that tiers promote exchange while protecting the primary market in the laboratory we find that both firm revenue and total social surplus are improved by tiered matching and the amount of improvement depends on the exchange mechanism the firm uses we focus on two popular mechanisms deposit first and request first we find that subjects are less likely to take advantage of the match under tier free deposit first mechanism possibly because of risk aversion thus a tiered approach is more critical under the request first mechanism we confirm that risk aversion partly explains deviations from theory this paper was accepted by uri gneezy

peer induced fairness in games people exhibit peer induced fairness concerns when they look to their peers as a reference to evaluate their endowments we analyze two independent ulti matum games played sequentially by a leader and two followers with peer induced fairness the second follower is averse to receiving less than the first follower using laboratory experimental data we estimate that peer induced fairness between followers is two times stronger than distributional fairness between leader and follower allowing for heterogeneity we find that 50 per cent of subjects are fairness minded we discuss how peer induced fairness might limit price discrimination account for low variability in ceo compensa tion and explain pattern bargaining

buy price english auction abstract consider an english auction for a single object in which there is an option for a bidder to guarantee a purchase at a seller specified buy price b at any time we show that there exist v and v v such that a bidder purchases at the buy price immediately if his valuation v is no less than v or v v v and at least one other bidder is participating in the auction if b v v he purchases at the buy price once the current bid reaches a strategically chosen threshold price a properly set buy price increases expected social welfare and the expected utility of each agent when either buyers or seller are risk averse

designing multiperson tournaments with asymmetric contestants an experimental study is the right amount of effort exerted in multiperson tournaments where contestants have two different levels of initial endowments termed favorites and underdogs we develop theoretical predictions for the level of effort and the effect of varying the prize structure we test these predictions for three person tournaments using an economic experiment in a social environment where contest outcomes are publicly announced we find that both favorites and underdogs overexert effort relative to the theoretical point predictions moreover in the treatment with two favorites and one underdog favorites increase their effort when the number of prizes is increased from one to two contrary to the theory prediction we show that a generalized model that allows for psychological losses from losing for favorites and psychological gains from winning for underdogs because of social comparisons tracks the experimental results better than the standard theoretical model this paper was accepted by peter wakker decision analysis

modeling the psychology of consumer and firm behavior with behavioral economics abstract marketing is an applied science that tries to explain and influence how firms and consumers behave in markets marketing models are usually applications of standard economic theories which rely on strong assumptions of rationality of consumers and firms behavioral economics explores the implications of the limits of rationality with the goal of making economic theories more plausible by explaining and predicting behavior more accurately while maintaining formal power this article reviews six behavioral economics models that are useful to marketing three models generalize standard preference structures to allow for sensitivity to reference points and loss aversion social preferences toward outcomes of others and preference for instant gratification the other three models generalize the concept of game theoretic equilibrium allowing decision makers to make mistakes encounter limits on the depth of strategic thinking and equilibrate by learning from feedback the authors also discuss a sp

when should sellers use auctions the simultaneous bid auction is a standard method for sellers to solicit offers from buyers a simple alternative is for a seller to ask buyers to make offers sequentially if it is costly for buyers to participate the sequential mechanism will tend to be more efficient than the simultaneous auction because later potential buyers can condition their participation decisions on earlier bids however the sequential mechanism s greater efficiency may not produce higher revenues because while the possibility of deterring later potential entrants can lead early bidders to bid aggressively the fact that later firms might be deterred will tend to reduce revenues the relative revenue performance of the mechanisms will therefore depend on whether the threat of potential future competition which can raise bids in the sequential mechanism is more valuable to the seller than actual competition which will tend to be greater in the simultaneous auction the relative revenue performance of these alternative mechanisms has direct implications for how assets should be sold in the case of how to structure the sale of corporations this question has attracted attention from practitioners and commentators since the delaware supreme court s 1986 revlon decision charged a board overseeing the sale of a company with the duty of getting the best price for the stockholders revlon v mcandrews and forbes holdings 1986 in practice

bounded rationality in pricing under state dependent demand do firms look ahead and if so how far the authors propose an empirical procedure to investigate the pricing behavior of manufacturers and retailers in the presence of state dependent demand rather than assuming that firms are perfectl

asymptotic efficiency for discriminatory private value auctions we consider discriminatory auctions for multiple identical units of a good players have private values possibly for multiple units none of the usual assumptions about symmetry of players distributions over values or symmetry of equilibrium play are made because of this equilibria will typically involve inefficient allocations equilibria also become very difficult to solve for using an approach which does not depend on explicit equilibrium calculations we show that such auctions become arbitrarily close to efficient as the number of players and possibly the number of objects grows large and provide a simple characterization of limit equilibria

bargaining versus posted price selling abstract two popular selling methods bargaining and posted price selling are compared here in a dynamic model when bargaining costs no more than posted price selling we find that bargaining is always optimal when bargaining costs more however bargaining is still preferred if and only if the common cost for both selling methods is large enough we also find that an increase in the discount rate or the seller s bargaining power favors bargaining finally we find that if the distribution becomes more dispersed and the increase in a buyer s valuation is sufficiently large bargaining is more likely to be adopted

the relevance of private information in mechanism design abstract recent results in mechanism design show that as long as agents have correlated private information and are sufficiently risk neutral it is possible to design mechanisms that leave agents with arbitrarily small information rents we show that these full rent extraction results hinge on the implicit assumption that the agents beliefs uniquely determine their preferences we present an example of the voluntary provision of a public good in which this assumption is relaxed and consequently even in highly correlated environments if agents beliefs do not uniquely determine their preferences then the extraction of the agents entire information rents is impossible

auctions and bidding a primer maybe the contractor was right to think bid jobs are different but it is more likely that he suffered from too simple a view of what is involved in preparing a competitive bid our analysis will show that even an experienced estimator working in familiar terrain can lose money if he doesn t understand the subtleties of competitive bidding the phenomenon experienced by the painting contractor known as the winner s curse is just one of the surprising and puzzling conclusions that have been turned up by modern research into auctions another is the theoretical proposition supported also by some experimental evidence that for example a sealed bid treasury bill auction in which each buyer pays a price equal to the highest rejected bid would yield more revenue to the treasury than the current procedure in which the winning bidder pays the seemingly higher amount equal to his own bid there are also subtle results that demonstrate the equivalence of such apparently different institutions as the standard sealed bid auction in which the auctioneer seller sells the goods to the highest bidder for a price equal to his bid and the dutch auction in which the auctioneer seller begins by asking a high price and gradually lowers the price until

consumer value maximizing sweepstakes and contests abstract sweepstakes and contests are some of the most frequently used promotional tools consumers participating in sweepstakes or contests have an opportunity to win prizes through a random draw the authors examine how commonly used sweepstakes formats that vary in the number of winners and the allocation of the total reward money among the winners affect consumer valuations of the promotion given a fixed amount of reward money the authors examine alternative reward formats based on the promotional objectives consumer risk aversion and degree of subadditivity they test the analytical results using an experimental approach

pricing without priors we consider the problem of pricing a single object when the seller has only minimal information about the true valuation of the buyer specifically the seller only knows the support of the possible valuations and has no further distributional information the seller is solving this choice problem under uncertainty by minimizing her regret the pricing policy hedges against uncertainty by randomizing over a range of prices the support of the pricing policy is bounded away from zero buyers with low valuations cannot generate substantial regret and are priced out of the market we generalize the pricing policy without priors to encompass many buyers and many qualities

designing sales contests does the prize structure matter abstract sales contests are short term incentives that managers use to raise sales effort the extant marketing theory predicts that the optimal prize structure should have two characteristics 1 the number of prizewinners should be greater than one and 2 prize values should be unique and rank ordered however this theory has not been empirically examined this article presents two empirical studies that examine whether the prize structure of a sales contest affects sales performance in each study the authors investigate the incremental effects of introducing multiple prizewinners and unique rank ordered prizes into a sales contest the first study consists of two laboratory experiments in which participants make decisions that closely reflect the decision trade offs in the theoretical model of sales contests the second study consists of two field economic experiments in which trained salespeople sell fundraising sponsorships to companies the results across the experiments are remarkably consist

creative destruction and destructive creations environmental ethics and planned obsolescence three decades ago planned obsolescence was a widely discussed ethical issue in marketing classrooms planned obsolescence is topical again today because an increasing emphasis on continuous product development promotes shorter durables replacement and disposal cycles with troublesome environmental consequences this paper offers explanations of why product obsolescence is practiced and why it works it then examines the ethical responsibilities of product developers and corporate strategists and their differing responses to this problem pro environment product design and marketing practices and innovative government policies may alleviate the problem over time however given the current lack of understanding about consumer replacement and disposal behavior it is questionable as to whether these practices and policies will be sufficiently informed to be effective thus marketing scholars have a significant opportunity to contribute to sustainable durables product development

behaviorally optimal auction design examples and observations this paper begins to explore behavioral mechanism design replacing equilibrium by a model based on level k thinking which has strong support in experiments in representative examples we consider optimal sealed bid auctions with two symmetric bidders who have independent private values assuming that the designer knows the distribution of level k bidders we show that in a first price auction level k bidding changes the optimal reserve price and often yields expected revenue that exceeds myerson s 1981 bound and that an exotic auction that exploits bidders non equilibrium beliefs can far exceed the revenue bound we close with some general observations about level k auction design jel c72 c92

reference dependence in multilocation newsvendor models a structural analysis we propose a behavioral theory to predict actual ordering behavior in multilocation inventory systems the theory rests on a well known stylized fact of human behavior people s preferences are reference dependent we incorporate reference dependence into the newsvendor framework by assuming that there are psychological costs of leftovers and stockouts we also hypothesize that the psychological aversion to leftovers is greater than the disutility for stockouts we then experimentally test the proposed theory in both the centralized and decentralized inventory structures using subjects motivated by substantial financial incentives consistent with the proposed theory actual orders exhibit the so called pull to center bias and the degree of bias is greater in the high profit margin than in the low profit margin condition these systematic biases are shown to eliminate the risk pooling benefit when the demands across store locations are strongly correlated because the proposed model nests the standard inventory and ex post inventory error minimization theories as special cases one can systematically evaluate the predictive power of each alternative using the generalized likelihood principle we structurally estimate all three theories using the experimental data and the estimation results strongly suggest that the proposed behavioral theory captures actual orders and profits better we also conduct two experiments to validate the behavioral model by manipulating the relative salience of the psychological costs of leftovers versus that of stockouts to alleviate the pull to center bias

aggregation and linearity in the provision of intertemporal incentives we consider the problem of providing incentives over time for an agent with constant absolute risk aversion the optimal compensation scheme is found to be a linear function of a vector of n accounts which count the number of times that each of the n kinds of observable events occurs the number n is independent of the number of time periods so the accounts may entail substantial aggregation in a continuous time version of the problem the agent controls the drift rate of a vector of accounts that is subject to frequent small random fluctuations the solution is as if the problem were the static one in which the agent controls only the mean of a multivariate normal distribution and the principal is constrained to use a linear compensation rule if the principal can observe only coarser linear aggregates such as revenues costs or profits the optimal compensation scheme is then a linear function of those aggregates the combination of exponential utility normal distributions and linear compensation schemes makes computations and comparative statics easy to do as we illustrate we interpret our linearity results as deriving in part from the richness of the agent s strategy space which makes it possible for the agent to undermine and exploit complicated nonlinear functions of the accounting aggregates

favoring the winner or loser in repeated contests should a firm favor a weaker or stronger employee in a contest despite a widespread emphasis on rewarding the best employees managers continue to tolerate and even favor poor performers contest theory reveals that evenly matched contests are the most intense which implies that a contest designer can maximize each player s effort by artificially boosting the underdog s chances we apply this type of handicapping to a two period repeated contest between employees in which the only information available about their abilities is their performance in the first period in this setting employees are strategic and forward looking such that they fully anticipate the potential impact of the first period contest result on the second period contest and thus adjust their behaviors accordingly the manager also incorporates these strategic behaviors of employees when determining an optimal handicapping policy if employees abilities are sufficiently different favoring the first period loser in the second period increases the total effort over both periods however if abilities are sufficiently similar we find the opposite result occurs total effort increases the most in response to a handicapping strategy of favoring the first period winner

maximal loss from collusion in ipv symmetric auctions abstract we derive a bound on the seller s revenue loss in optimal auctions from unanticipated bidder collusion the relative loss is rather small when there are few bidders it is increasing with the number of bidders but at a slow rate

amicable divorce dissolving a partnership with simple mechanisms abstract this paper considers mechanisms for allocating the assets of a dissolving partnership that can be specified without information on the distribution of valuations of the asset or the level of risk aversion of the participants for the case of a single asset and risk averse agents three simple mechanisms are considered these mechanisms can be ranked in terms of ex post efficiency and partially ranked in terms of interim expected utility the efficiency of the alternating selection mechanism is considered for environments when there are many items to be allocated agents are risk neutral and transfers are prohibited conditions are given when a myopic strategy of picking the most preferred abailable item forms an equilibrium and these conditions are satisfied under independence under the further assumption of identical distributions of valuations it is shown that the total expected efficiency loss is at most 1 2 of the maximal value of a single item regardless of how many items are to be allocated

full extraction of the surplus in bayesian and dominant strategy auctions we consider auctions for a single indivisible object in the case where the bidders have information about each other which is not available to the seller we show that the seller can use this information to his own benefit and we completely characterize the environ ments in which a well chosen auction gives him the same expected payoff as that obtainable were he able to sell the object with full information about each bidder s willingness to pay we provide this characterization for auctions in which the bidders have dominant strate gies and for those where the relevant equilibrium concept is bayesian nash in both set ups the existence of these auctions hinges on the possibility of constructing lotteries with the correct properties we consider the situation in which an agent the seller possesses one indivisible unit of a good to which he attaches no value but the good has value to a number of potential buyers and its transfer to one of them would increase social welfare in particular the transfer to the buyer with the highest valuation maximizes social welfare in this paper we completely characterize environments in which the seller can design an auction that will enable him to capture for himself the full increase in social welfare induced by the transfer of the good to the bidder with the highest willingness to pay if the seller had full information about the reservation prices of potential buyers his optimal selling strategy would be very simple he would announce a price equal or very close to the highest reservation value the optimal strategy for the bidder with the highest evaluation would be to accept the offer note that we are treating a situation in which the seller can commit himself to a price as a result of the exchange the utility of the seller increases by the full amount of the increase in social welfare and he has been able to fully extract the surplus in many circumstances however a seller has only imperfect knowledge of the buyers willingnesses to pay in this case he must find some mechanism or auction which will enable him to maximize his benefit from the sale of the object the auction literature starts with this observation and shows how the seller can by an astute choice of auction extract the largest possible fraction of the surplus in general the literature has shown that this proportion is strictly less than one in some circumstances the bidders will have information about each other which is not available to the seller for instance in auctions for petroleum drilling rights bidders know the results of geological tests which they have

a model of competing selling mechanisms abstract a model where sellers choose sequentially between any two selling mechanisms is studied with monotonicity and minimum mechanism difference there exists a unique equilibrium where all sellers choose the mechanism of higher per seller surplus at a critical number of sellers

auctions versus negotiations which is the more profitable way to sell a company an auction with no reserve price or an optimally structured negotiation with one less bidder we show under reasonable assumptions that the auction is always preferable when bidders signals are independent for affiliated signals the result holds under certain restrictions on the seller s choice of negotiating mechanism the result suggests that the value of negotiating skill is small relative to the value of additional competition the paper also shows how the analogies between monopoly theory and auction theory can help derive new results in auction theory jel d44 g34 there are close analogies between standard price theory and the theory of auctions in an absolute english auction in which the price rises continuously until only one bidder remains and the seller is required to accept the final bid the sale price equals the lowest competitive price at which supply equals demand in the theory of optimal auctions the seller is treated as a monopolist who can choose any

willingness to pay and compensation demanded experimental evidence of an unexpected disparity in measures of value aside from possible income effects measures of the maximum amounts people will pay to avoid a loss and the minimum compensation necessary for them to accept it are generally assumed to be equivalent unexpectedly wide variations between these sums however have been noted in survey responses to hypothetical options this paper reports the results of a series of experiments that confronted people with actual money payments and cash compensations the results indicate that the compensation measure of value seems to exceed significantly the willingness to pay measure which would appear to call into some question various rules of entitlement damage assessments and interpretations of indifference curves

calibrated incentive contracts this paper studies a dynamic agency problem which includes limited liability moral hazard and adverse selection the paper develops a robust approach to dynamic contracting based on calibrating the incentive properties of simple benchmark contracts that are attractive but infeasible due to limited liability constraints the resulting dynamic contracts are detail free and satisfy robust performance bounds independently of the underlying process for returns which need not be i i d or even ergodic publication abstract

pricing and allocation for quality differentiated online services we explore the problem of pricing and allocation of unique one time digital products in the form of data streams we look at the short term problem where the firm has a capacitated shared resource and multiple products or service levels we formulate the allocatively efficient generalized vickrey auction gva for our setting and point out the computational challenges in determining the individual discriminatory transfer payments we propose an alternative uniform price computationally efficient revenue maximizing knapsack formulation called the multiple vickrey auction mva while not incentive compatible the mva mechanism achieves bounded posterior regret and can be solved in real time it has the added benefit of realizing imputed commodity prices for the various services a feature lacking in the discriminatory gva approach for service providers that are concerned about the incentive compatibility but want imputed service prices we suggest a maximal mva mmva uniform pricing scheme that trades off revenue maximization for allocative efficiency for sake of completeness we discuss the properties of a first price pay your bid scheme while np hard and not incentive compatible this formulation has the perceived benefit of cognitive simplicity on the parts of sellers and bidders

social loss aversion and optimal contest design when managers are designing a contest to motivate effort by salespeople service employees franchisees or product development teams a key question is what should the optimal proportion of winne

arriving in time estimation of english auctions with a stochastic number of bidders we develop a new econometric approach for the estimation of second price ascending bid auctions with a stochastic number of bidders our empirical framework considers the arrival process of new bidders as well as the distribution of bidders valuations of objects being auctioned by observing the timing of bidder arrival the model is identified even when the number of potential bidders is stochastic and unknown the relevance of our approach is illustrated with an empirical application using a unique dataset of art auctions on ebay our results suggest a higher impact of sellers reputation on bidders valuations than previously reported in cross sectional studies but the impact of reputation on bidder arrival is largely insignificant interestingly a seller s reputation impacts not only the actions of the bidders but the actions of the seller as well in particular experience and a good reputation increase the probability of a seller posting items for sale on longer lasting auctions which we find inc

designing optimal sales contests a theoretical perspective sales contests are commonly used by firms as a short term motivational device to increase salespeople s efforts conceptually sales contests and piece rate schemes such as salary commission or quotas differ in that in sales contests payment to salespeople is based on relative rather than absolute sales levels using the agency theoretic framework where the firm is risk neutral and the salespeople are risk averse we examine how a firm should design an optimal contest to maximize its profit through stimulating salespeople s efforts specifically we investigate how many salespeople should be given awards and how the reward should be allocated between the winners three commonly used sales contest formats are studied in the first format termed as rank order tournament there are many winners and the amount of reward is based on relative rank achieved with larger amounts awarded to higher ranks we also examine two special cases of rank ordered tournament a multiple winners format where the reward is shared equally and a winner take all format where a single winner gets the entire reward we model salespeople s behavior by considering utility of the reward from achieving one of the winning ranks in the contest and assessing incremental chances of winning by exerting more effort the analysis was done for two situations based on whether the total reward is large enough for salespeople to participate in the effort maximizing sales contest or not the analysis shows that factors impacting contest design include the salespeople s degree of risk aversion number of salespeople competing in the contest and degree of sales uncertainty which reflects strength of the sales effort relationship the results show that salespeople exert lower effort when there are larger numbers of participants or when sales uncertainty is high we find that the rank order tournament is superior to the multiple winners contest format in a multiple winners format the salesperson whose performance is just sufficient to win is better off than any of the other winners as he exerts the least effort to win but obtains as high a reward as any other winners specific recommendations on contest designs are obtained assuming that sales follow either a logistic or uniform distribution assuming that sales outcome is logistically distributed and the contest budget is high enough to ensure participation our analysis shows that the total number of winners in a sales contest should not exceed half the number of the contestants this result is due to the symmetric nature of the logistic distribution our analysis also indicates that the total number of winners should be increased and the spread decreased when salespeople are more risk averse when salespeople are more risk averse their marginal values for higher rewards become smaller the spread should increase with ranks when rate of risk tolerance is high and decrease with ranks when the rate of risk tolerance is lower in the extreme case of risk neutral salespeople the optimal design is a winner take all format we also conclude that since the probability of winning the contest decreases with number of contestants the optimal number of winners should increase and interrank spread decrease when there are a larger number of participants if the firm does not allocate a large enough budget for salespeople to participate in the effort maximizing sales contest then the firm may increase the number of winners to more than half the sales force increasing the number of winners and decreasing the spread are required to encourage the salespeople to participate particularly when there are many participants who are risk averse a counterintuitive result is that the number of winners should be reduced and the spread increased when sales uncertainty is high increasing sales uncertainty leads to lower equilibrium effort levels while keeping the expected utility of the contest rewards the same therefore increased uncertainty results in higher participation incentive the firm should thus relatively reduce the number of winners in high uncertainty situations under the assumption of uniformly distributed sales the recommendation is that a winner take all contest induces maximum efforts regardless of the level of risk aversion number of players or the degree of uncertainty when the winner take all format does not meet the participation constraint our analysis recommends offering a big reward to the top salesperson and a small reward to many other sales people the small reward should be just sufficient to ensure that all salespeople participate consistent with logistic distribution the spread should decrease when salespeople are more risk averse or there are more players but should increase when sales uncertainty is larger these results highlight that some of the conclusions drawn may be sensitive to distributional assumptions