winners and losers in housing markets this paper is a quantitatively oriented theoretical study into the interaction between housing prices aggregate production and household behaviour over a lifetime we develop a life cycle model of a production economy in which land and capital are used to build residential and commercial structures we find that in an economy where the share of land in the value of structures is large housing prices react more to an exogenous change in expected productivity or the world interest rate causing large redistribution effects between net buyers and net sellers of houses changing the financing constraint however has limited effects on housing prices

macroeconomic and distributional effects of mortgage guarantee programs for the poor abstract government driven mortgage guarantee programs for example loans insured through the federal housing administration the department of veterans affairs and the rural housing service aim to help financially disadvantaged households buy and own their houses this study analyzes the macroeconomic and distributional effects of these government programs we propose a quantitative model where households endogenously choose their mortgage types either with or without government guarantees households that take out mortgages with government guarantees pay an up front insurance premium while those that choose mortgages without guarantees face borrowing limits our results show that a hypothetical decline in government subsidies for mortgage guarantee programs can improve aggregate household welfare mainly due to endogenous changes in mortgage interest rates and tax burdens rather than in housing prices the welfare implications are different across households depending on their financial status

did dubious mortgage origination practices distort house prices zip codes with high concentrations of originators who misreported mortgage information experienced a 75 larger relative increase in house prices from 2003 to 2006 and a 90 larger relative decrease from 2007 to 2012 compared with other zip codes several causality tests show that high fractions of dubious originators in a zip code lead to large price distortions originators with high misreporting gave credit to borrowers with high ex ante risk yet further understated the borrowers true risk overall excess credit facilitated through dubious origination practices explain much of the regional variation in house prices over a decade

individual risk attitudes measurement determinants and behavioral consequences this paper studies risk attitudes using a large representative survey and a complementary experiment conducted with a representative subject pool in subjects homes using a question asking people about their willingness to take risks in general we find that gender age height and parental background have an economically significant impact on willingness to take risks the experiment confirms the behavioral validity of this measure using paid lottery choices turning to other questions about risk attitudes in specific contexts we find similar results on the determinants of risk attitudes and also shed light on the deeper question of stability of risk attitudes across contexts we conduct a horse race of the ability of different measures to explain risky behaviors such as holdings stocks occupational choice and smoking the question about risk taking in general generates the best all round predictor of risky behavior

credit constraints house prices and the impact of life cycle dynamics abstract how does the life cycle impact house price dynamics this paper investigates how equilibrium house prices respond to a tightening in credit constraints under two different but similarly calibrated models one an infinite horizon setting and the other a life cycle environment the main conclusion is that house price dynamics are magnified by the presence of life cycle features two primary explanations stand out the distinction between stocks and flows of mortgage debt in the cross section and the importance of gross housing tenure flows i e churn

risk preferences around the world we present results from a large scale international survey on risk preferences conducted in 53 countries in all countries we find on average an attitude of risk aversion in gains and of risk seeking in losses the degree of risk aversion shows significant cross country differences moreover risk attitudes in our sample depend not only on economic conditions but also on cultural factors as measured by the hofstede dimensions individualism and uncertainty avoidance the data may also serve as an interesting starting point for further research on cultural differences in behavioral economics data as supplemental material are available at http dx doi org 10 1287 mnsc 2013 1869 this paper was accepted by peter wakker decision analysis

individualism and confucian dynamism a note on hofstede s cultural root to economic growth hofstede and his associates have presented statistical evidence purporting to identify a link between national culture and economic growth this note describes two problems with this line of research first two of the dimensions of culture used in this research individualism and confucian dynamism are treated as if they are independent when in fact they appear to be highly interrelated and second culture is not a sufficient condition to explain economic growth and is related to other important factors that play a role in determining economic growth the consequences of these problems on interpretation of the research findings are discussed and recommendations for future research directions are proposed

housing demand during the boom the role of expectations and credit constraints i use a life cycle model of housing demand to infer expectations about house prices and home equity requirements for the housing boom of the 2000s from observed household choices expectations and credit constraints are separately identified from the intensive and extensive margins of housing demand the main results are that 1 expected price growth was close to average long run growth 2 home equity requirements were lax initially but tightened after the bust and 3 subjective uncertainty about future price growth was large given the option to default on mortgage debt greater price uncertainty leads to higher optimal household leverage

does increasing women s schooling raise the schooling of the next generation the positive cross sectional relationship between the schooling of mothers and their children is substantially biased upward due to correlations between schooling and heritable ability as well as assortative mating an increase in the schooling of women would not have beneficial effects in terms of the schooling of children increased maternal schooling leads to reduced home time for mothers anticipating the consequences of investing in women s schooling requires attention to the role that schooling plays in the marriage market as well as to opportunities in the labor market for women

transfers in cash and in kind theory meets the data we review theoretical explanations for in kind transfers in light of the limited empirical evidence after reviewing the traditional paternalistic arguments we consider explanations based on imperfect information and self targeting we then discuss the large literature on in kind programs as a way of improving the efficiency of the tax system and a range of other possible explanations including the samaritan s dilemma pecuniary effects credit constraints asymmetric information amongst agents and political economy considerations our reading of the evidence suggests that paternalism and interdependent preferences are leading overall explanations for the existence of in kind transfer programs but that some of the other arguments may apply to specific cases political economy considerations must also be part of the story

on the determinants of household debt maturity choice this article jointly analyses a behavioural and a cultural concept to explain household debt portfolio choice the behavioural approach explores the role of time preferences on household debt maturity in a theoretical model and a numerical analysis we derive a positive relationship between the long term discount factor and the optimal maturity of household loans the cultural approach examines whether national culture is a reasonable predictor for household debt maturity we show that culture is an important factor for households borrowing decisions and has even more predictive power than time preferences countries with higher scores on the hofstede dimension of long term orientation tend to have shorter household debt maturity time preferences incur a primarily mediating role because the effect of national culture on the borrowing decision is reduced as the long term discount factor increases

national culture and dividend policy this interdisciplinary study examines how national culture affects corporate dividend policies the dividend puzzle is one of the most studied yet unresolved issues in financial economics prior theoretical and empirical research has suggested several explanations of the dividend puzzle that are rooted mainly in agency asymmetric information bird in hand and pecking order theories the main intuition behind our analysis is that dividend policy may be determined not only by an objective assessment of the severity of agency and asymmetric information problems within a firm but also by management s and investors subjective perceptions of these problems which hinge on their national culture using schwartz s national culture dimensions conservatism and mastery we find that conservatism is positively related and mastery negatively related to dividend payouts for a sample of 27 462 firm years from 21 countries between 1995 and 2007 these effects are robust to controls for a wide variety of other determinants of dividend policy including investor protection stock market performance financial system configuration tax advantage economic development and dividend catering premium and to alternative culture proxies and sub period windows our findings that national culture affects perceptions of and responses to agency and information asymmetry have important implications for policymakers and multinational enterprises

mortgage default during the u s mortgage crisis this paper asks which theories of mortgage default are quantitatively consistent with observations in the united states during 2002 2010 theoretical models are simulated for the observed time series of aggregate house prices their predictions are then compared to actual default rates on prime fixed rate mortgages an out of sample test discriminates between estimated reduced forms of the two most prominent theories the test reveals that the doubletrigger hypothesis attributing mortgage default to the joint occurrence of negative equity and a life event like unemployment outperforms a frictionless option theoretic default model based on this finding a structural partialequilibrium model with liquidity constraints and idiosyncratic unemployment shocks is presented to provide micro foundations for the double trigger hypothesis in this model borrowers with negative equity are more likely to default when they are unemployed and have low liquid wealth the model explains most of the observed strong rise in mortgage default rates a policy implication of the model is that subsidizing homeowners can mitigate a mortgage crisis at a lower cost than bailing out lenders

mortgage debt consumption and illiquid housing markets in the great recession using a model with housing search endogenous credit constraints and mortgage default this paper accounts for the housing crash from 2006 to 2011 and its implications for aggregate and cross sectional consumption during the great recession left tail shocks to labor market uncertainty and tighter down payment requirements emerge as the key drivers an endogenous decline in housing liquidity amplifies the recession by increasing foreclosures contracting credit and depressing consumption balance sheets act as a transmission mechanism from housing to consumption that depends on gross portfolio positions and the leverage distribution low interest rate policies accelerate the recovery in housing and consumption

house prices and credit constraints making sense of the us experience most us house price models break down in the mid 2000s due to the omission of exogenous changes in mortgage credit supply associated with the sub prime mortgage boom from house price to rent ratio and inverted housing demand models previous models lack data on credit constraints facing first time home buyers incorporating a measure of credit conditions the cyclically adjusted loan to value ratio for first time buyers into house price to rent ratio models yields stable long run relationships more precisely estimated effects reasonable speeds of adjustment and improved model fits

depreciation of housing capital maintenance and house price inflation estimates from a repeat sales model abstract the rate at which physical capital depreciates is fundamental to investment in the economy nevertheless although housing capital accounts for one third of the total capital stock the rate at which housing capital depreciates has only rarely been directly estimated in part because prior studies do not control for maintenance for that same reason widely publicized measures of house price appreciation overstate the capital gain from homeownership using data from the american housing survey we examine these issues over the 1983 to 2001 period results indicate that gross of maintenance housing depreciates at roughly 2 5 percent per year while net of maintenance housing depreciates at approximately 2 percent per year moreover although the typical home appreciated at an annual real rate of roughly 0 75 percent after allowing for depreciation and maintenance the average homeowner experienced little capital gain

the democratization of credit and the rise in consumer bankruptcies financial innovations are a common explanation for the rise in credit card debt and bankruptcies to evaluate this story we develop a simple model that incorporates two key frictions asymmetric information about borrowers risk of default and a fixed cost of developing each contract lenders offer innovations that ameliorate asymmetric information or reduce this fixed cost have large extensive margin effects via the entry of new lending contracts targeted at riskier borrowers this results in more defaults and borrowing and increased dispersion of interest rates using the survey of consumer finances and federal reserve board interest rate data we find evidence supporting these predictions specifically the dispersion of credit card interest rates nearly tripled while the new cardholders of the late 1980s and 1990s had riskier observable characteristics than existing cardholders our calculation suggest these new cardholders accounted for over 25 of the rise in bank credit card debt and delinquencies between 1989 and 1998

national culture and corporate debt maturity abstract we investigate the influence of national culture on corporate debt maturity choice based on the framework of williamson we argue that culture located in social embeddedness level can shape contracting environments by serving as an informal constraint that affects human actors incentives and choices in market exchange we therefore expect national culture to be related to debt maturity structure after controlling for legal political financial and economic institutions using hofstede s four cultural dimensions uncertainty avoidance collectivism power distance and masculinity as proxies for culture and using a sample of 114 723 firm years from 40 countries over the 1991 2006 period we find robust evidence that firms located in countries with high uncertainty avoidance high collectivism high power distance and high masculinity tend to use more short term debt we interpret our results as consistent with the view that national culture helps explain cross country variations in the maturity structure of corporate debt

social interaction and stock market participation we propose that stock market participation is influenced by social interaction in our model any given social investor finds the market more attractive when more of his peers participate we test this theory using data from the health and retirement study and find that social households those who interact with their neighbors or attend church are substantially more likely to invest in the market than non social households controlling for wealth race education and risk tolerance moreover consistent with a peer effects story the impact of sociability is stronger in states where stock market participation rates are higher

distributional implications of government guarantees in mortgage markets we analyze the removal of the credit risk guarantees provided by the government sponsored enterprises gses in a model with agents heterogeneous in income and house price risk we find that wealth inequality increases driven by higher mortgage spreads and housing rents housing holdings become more concentrated foreclosures fall the removal benefits high income households while hurting low and mid income households renters and highly leveraged mortgagors with conforming loans gse reform requires compensating transfers sufficiently high elasticity of rental supply or linking gse reform with the elimination of the mortgage interest deduction

debt and the response to household income shocks validation and application of linked financial account data the increasing availability of data derived from linked consumer financial accounts has the potential to dramatically expand the potential for research examining the most comprehensive existing se

viewpoint replication in economics this examination of the role and potential for replication in economics points out the paucity of both pure replication checking on others published papers using their data and scientific replication using data representing different populations in one s own work or in a comment several controversies in empirical economics are used to illustrate how and how not to behave when replicating others work the incentives for replication are examined and proposals aimed at journal editors and authors are advanced that might stimulate an activity that most economists applaud but few perform

can targeted food programs improve nutrition an empirical analysis of india s public distribution system abstract despite the widespread belief that a substantial assault on poverty requires targeting scarce resources toward the poor practitioners frequently claim that targeted programs deliver fewer benefits to poor households than do universal programs this article evaluates this concern through an analysis of india s targeted food distribution program the public distribution system it first examines the case for targeting by assessing the responsiveness of caloric intake to the amount of the food grain subsidy a low elasticity suggests that improvements in nutrition may require large subsidies and hence a targeted program it then examines whether targeting adversely affects the probability of poor households participating in the program the empirical analysis identifies the effect of the program by combining time varying policy changes in the value of the program with cross sectional variation in program benefits generated by variation in market prices the results confirm the low responsiveness

mortgage risks debt literacy and financial advice a limited understanding of mortgage contracts and the risks involved may have contributed to the outbreak of the 2007 2008 financial crisis we developed a special questionnaire relating mortgage loan decisions to financial knowledge and financial advice our results demonstrate that homeowners appear to be well aware of mortgage risks large loans relative to home value are perceived as riskier as are loans with large mortgage payments relative to income and loans linked to investment vehicles homeowners with riskier mortgages indicated that they could encounter financial problems should house prices or their income decline homeowners with relatively low debt literacy are more likely to take out traditional mortgages with principal repayments over the maturity of the loan riskier mortgages are more prevalent among homeowners with a better understanding of loan contracts financially less sophisticated homeowners consulting mortgage brokers too hold riskier mortgages

does culture influence asset managers views and behavior abstract this research enters new ground by presenting comparative survey evidence on asset managers views and behavior in the united states germany japan and thailand relying on hofstede s four cultural dimensions we find that cultural differences are most helpful in understanding country differences which cannot be explained by pure economic reasoning in short controlling for various determinants the dimension of more individualism predicts less herding behavior more power distance leads to older and comparatively less experienced managers in the upper hierarchy masculinity brings men into top positions and to higher volumes of assets under personal responsibility and uncertainty avoidance is related to higher safety margins against the tracking error allowed and relatively more research effort these consequences i e the culturally different importance of herding age experience gender tracking error and research effort clearly affect investment behavior although in a complex way

the determinants of econometric society fellows elections we study the results of elections of fellows of the econometric society we aremotivated largely by the question of whether these elections are fair where our de ni tion of fairness is that votes are based solely on the quality of the candidates if so thenconditional on quality other characteristics of the candidates such as geographic locationor subspecialty should not in uence the probability of election we nd that conditionalon a number of measures of the quality of the candidates other characteristics do sig ni cantly predict election for example an australian econometrician is less likely to beelected than a north america based economic theorist this is true whether or not wecontrol for quality measures one might object that even fully informed individuals may differ in their assessment ofquality and that neither the voters nor the authors of this study are fully informed aboutcandidates quality this is true in any study of the impact of ascriptive characteristics onoutcomes we discuss various interpretations of our ndings in the conclusion but readersmust draw their own conclusions about what the results imply about the roles of qualityand fairness in this electoral process 1 the electoral institutionmost members of the economics profession consider election as a fellow as an honor it recognizes prior professional achievements within what are the more technical areasof economics there are roughly 500 living fellows names are placed on the ballot inone of two ways i by the nominating committee of the society or ii by petition ofat least three members who need not be but usually are current fellows the ballotcontains the candidate s name and current af liation a list of at most six publications ashort statement of the candidate s contribution to economics and an indication of whetherthe nomination was by committee or by endorsers and if the latter from 1990 through2000 the names of all the endorsers the ballot deadline is april 30 the electorate dues paying current fellows receive the ballot in early autumn alongwith the nomination form for each candidate mark their ballots and return them tothe society s of ce results are announced in december names on the ballot are inalphabetical order with a different starting point in each annual election voters checkthe names of individuals whom they wish to be elected a candidate is elected who isapproved on at least 30 percent of the ballots returned typically about half the eligiblefellows cast votes losing candidates can be nominated in later years by either of thetwo methods but the process must be undertaken de novo

non durable consumption and housing net worth in the great recession evidence from easily accessible data abstract in an influential paper mian rao and sufi 2013 exploit geographic variation to measure the effect of the fall in housing net worth on household expenditures during the great recession their widely cited estimates are based on proprietary house price and proprietary expenditure data and therefore not easily replicable we use alternative data on a subset of non durable goods and on house prices which are more easily accessible to replicate their study when estimating their same specification on our data we obtain values for the elasticity of expenditures to the housing net worth shock that are virtually indistinguishable from theirs however our robustness analyses with respect to alternative model specifications yield more nuanced conclusions about the separate roles of house prices and initial housing exposure leverage for the drop in expenditures moreover the estimated elasticity is consistent theoretically and quantitatively with a simple calibrated model with wealth effects where leverage and credit constraints play no role

channeling fisher randomization tests and the statistical insignificance of seemingly significant experimental results i follow r a fisher s the design of experiments 1935 using randomization statistical inference to test the null hypothesis of no treatment effects in a comprehensive sample of 53 experimental papers drawn from the journals of the american economic association in the average paper randomization tests of the significance of individual treatment effects find 13 to 22 fewer significant results than are found using authors methods in joint tests of multiple treatment effects appearing together in tables randomization tests yield 33 to 49 fewer statistically significant results than conventional tests bootstrap and jackknife methods support and confirm the randomization results

macroeconomic effects of the mortgage refinance and the home equity lines of credit abstract i examine how the mortgage refinance and the home equity lines of credit heloc impact the increase in pre crisis mortgage debt and post crisis mortgage defaults financially constrained homeowners can cash out funds through refinancing mortgages or extract home equity through heloc my quantitative exercise shows that prevalent usage of refinancing increases pre crisis mortgage debt which amplifies the post crisis foreclosure rate heloc also contributes to an increase in mortgage defaults though it negligibly impacts pre crisis mortgage debt

two extensive margins of credit and loan to value policies author s gete pedro reher michael abstract we analyze a model of mortgage markets housing tenure choice heterogeneous agents and default with closed form solutions we uncover new insights which may inspire empirical work and we ground already established insights in a series of tractable expressions then we study optimal loan to value ltv regulation and show that the choice of an ltv cap should balance the opposing forces of access to homeownership and the negative externalities associated with default homeownership affordability concerns induce procyclical elements into optimal regulation which attenuate the countercyclical regulation justified by the negative default externalities

conducting monetary policy at very low short term interest rates can monetary policy committees accustomed to describing their plans and actions in terms of the level of a short term nominal interest rate find effective means of conducting and communicating their policies when that rate is zero or close to zero the very low levels of interest rates in japan switzerland and the united states in recent years have stimulated much interesting research on this question and have led some central banks to make changes in their operating procedures and communications strategies in this paper we will give a brief overview of current thinking on the conduct of monetary policy when short term interest rates are very low or even zero monetary policy works for the most part by influencing the prices and yields of financial assets which in turn affect economic decisions and thus the evolution of the economy when the short term policy rate is at or near zero the conventional means of effecting monetary ease lowering the target for the policy rate is no longer feasible however it would be a mistake to think that monetary policy was impotent we discuss three strategies for stimulating the economy at an unchanged level of the policy rate these involve i providing assurance to investors that short rates will be kept lower in the future than they currently expect ii changing the relative supplies of securities in the marketplace by altering the composition of the central bank s balance sheet and iii increasing the size of the central bank s balance sheet beyond the level needed to set the short term policy rate at zero quantitative easing we also discuss the costs and benefits of very low interest rates an issue that bears on the question of whether the central bank should take the policy rate all the way to zero before undertaking alternative policies

phasing out the gses we develop a new model of the mortgage market where both borrowers and lenders can default risk tolerant savers act as intermediaries between risk averse depositors and impatient borrowers the government plays a crucial role by providing both mortgage guarantees and deposit insurance underpriced government mortgage guarantees lead to more and riskier mortgage originations as well as to high financial sector leverage mortgage crises occasionally turn into financial crises and government bailouts due to the fragility of the intermediaries balance sheets increasing the price of the mortgage guarantee crowds in the private sector reduces financial fragility leads to fewer but safer mortgages lowers house prices and raises mortgage and risk free interest rates due to a more robust financial sector consumption smoothing improves and aggregate welfare increases while borrowers are nearly indifferent to a world with or without mortgage guarantees savers are substantially better off while aggregate welfare increases so does wealth inequality jel g12 g15 f31

social security and private saving reply i am embarrassed by the programming error that dean leimer and selig lesnoy uncovered but grateful to them for the care with which they repeated my original study feldstein 1974 they set an admirable example of the tradition of replication on which all scientific work ultimately rests as economic research increasingly involves large and complex computer programs to analyze macroeconomic data sets or to simulate models that cannot be solved analytically replication studies like that of leimer and lesnoy social security and private saving new time series evidence in this issue should become increasingly important in their comment leimer and lesnoy also suggest a variety of modifications to the social security wealth variable to incorporate alternative employee perceptions and actuarial assumptions as i explain below i have strong doubts about the appropriateness of these modifications i therefore do not agree with their conclusion that the time series evidence does not support the hypothesis that the introduction of social security has substantially reduced personal saving in the united states more specifically as i show in this reply correcting the computerprogramming error and reestimating the original equation for the original sample period produces results that are not substantially different from the results that were originally published in 1974 the point estimate of the coefficient of social security wealth implies that the level of social security wealth in the final year of the sample 1971 depressed personal saving by an amount equal to 44 percent of the actual personal saving in that year although the estimated coefficient of the social security wealth variable is smaller than in the original version and its standard error larger the conventional statistical test

market thickness and the impact of unemployment on housing market outcomes abstract a search and matching model is developed to study how unemployment influences the housing market in the presence of the thick market effect a structural estimation of the model is conducted based on texas city level data that covers three years 1990 2000 and 2010 simulations help clarify how much the thick market effect amplifies the impact of unemployment a three percentage point increase in the unemployment rate lowers the price by 10 74 and reduces the transaction volume by 5 49 incorporating a feedback mechanism from housing prices to unemployment strengthens the amplification magnitude of the thick market effect

leverage and the foreclosure crisis how much of the foreclosure crisis can be explained by the large number of high leverage mortgages originated during the housing boom in our model heterogeneous households select from mortgages with different down payments and choose whether to default given income and housing shocks the use of low down payment loans is initially limited by payment to income requirements but becomes unrestricted during the boom the model approximates key housing and mortgage market facts before and after the crisis a counterfactual experiment suggests that the increased number of high leverage loans originated prior to the crisis can explain over 60 percent of the rise in foreclosure rates

the cultural relativity of organizational practices and theories this paper summarizes the author s recently published findings about differences in people s work related values among 50 countries in view of these differences ethnocen tric management theories those based on the value system of one particular country have become untenable this concept is illustrated for the fields of leadership organization and motivation a key issue for organization science is the influence of national cultures on introduction management twenty or even 10 years ago the existence of a relationship be management and tween management and national cultures was far from obvious to many and it national cultures may not be obvious to everyone even now in the 1950s and 60s the dominant be lief at least in europe and the u s was that management was something univer sal there were principles of sound management which existed regardless of na tional environments if national or local practice deviated from these principles it was time to change local practice in the future the universality of sound manage ment practices would lead to societies becoming more and more alike this ap plied even to the poor countries of the third world which would become rich as well and would be managed just like the rich countries also the differences be tween management in the first and second world capitalist and socialist would disappear in fact under the surface they were thought to be a lot smaller than was officially recognized this way of thinking which dominated the 1950s and 60s is known as the convergence hypothesis during the 1970s the belief in the unavoidable convergence of management prac tices waned it was too obviously in conflict with the reality we saw around us at the same time supranational organizations like the european common market which were founded very much on the convergence belief had to recognize the stubbornness of national differences even within existing nations regional dif ferences became more rather than less accentuated the welsh the flemish the basques the bangladeshi the quebecois defended their own identity and this was difficult to reconcile with a management philosophy of convergence it slowly became clear that national and even regional cultures do matter for management the national and regional differences are not disappearing they are here to stay in fact these differences may become one of the most crucial problems for man agement in particular for the management of multinational multicultural orga nizations whether public or private

is the pds already a cash transfer rethinking india s food subsidy policies abstractcritics argue that india s mismanaged public distribution system pds which sells subsidised cereals to poor families should be replaced by cash transfers others fear cash may be misused using national sample survey data this article demonstrates that families treat additional pds subsidies wholly as a source of cash exactly like a cash transfer more worryingly cereal consumption has not increased despite higher real subsidies moreover neither the pds nor cash transfers are likely to raise total food expenditure in poor families finally therefore the paper explores how higher food consumption and other objectives of pds subsidies may be achieved

why micro credit may leave women worse off non cooperative bargaining and the marriage game in south asia abstract micro credit programmes targeting women continue to grow in south asia although research suggests that wives frequently hand over loans to their husbands women may also be unable to control the income generated by micro enterprises this article presents an intra household bargaining model explaining these findings and showing how credit may leave women worse off while benefiting men this game theoretic model also shows why a woman might rationally choose to give her loan to her husband even though she does not expect to benefit and knows he may not repay finally the article identifies the conditions necessary for micro credit to benefit women

viewpoint on the generalizability of lab behaviour to the field abstract we can think of no question more fundamental to experimental economics than understanding whether and under what circumstances laboratory results generalize to naturally occurring environments in this paper we extend levitt and list 2006 to the class of games in which financial payoffs and doing the right thing are not necessarily in conflict we argue that behaviour is crucially linked to not only the preferences of people but also the properties of the situation by doing so we are able to provide a road map of the psychological and economic properties of people and situations that might interfere with generalizability of laboratory result from a broad class of games

impacts of in kind transfers on household food consumption evidence from targeted food programmes in bangladesh this article examines the impact of wheat transfers and cash incomes on wheat consumption and wheat markets using propensity score matching techniques the mpc for wheat is on average 0 33 ranging form essentially zero for food for work a programme with large transfers to 0 51 for food for education econometric estimates indicate that the total marginal propensity to consume mpc wheat out of small wheat transfers to poor households is approximately 0 25 while mpcs for wheat out of cash income are near zero this increase in demand for wheat reduces the potential price effect of the three major targeted programmes by about one third

houses as atms mortgage refinancing and macroeconomic uncertainty we estimate a structural model of household liquidity management in the presence of long term mortgages households face counter cyclical idiosyncratic labor income uncertainty and borrowing constraints which aect optimal choices of leverage precautionary saving in liquid assets and illiquid home equity debt repayment mortgage renancing and default taking the observed historical path of house prices aggregate

why do so few hold stocks the authors investigate why 75 percent of u s households do not hold stocks despite the equity premium and predictions of expected utility models the question is relevant for privatization asset pricing and tax progressivity issues they show that risk aversion per se heterogeneity of beliefs habit persistence time nonseparability and quantity constraints on borrowing do not account for the phenomenon a wedge between borrowing and lending rates and minimum investment requirements are plausible but empirically weak factors more promising explanations are inertia and departures from expected utility maximization there is also qualified support for nondiversifiable income risk as a contributing factor copyright 1995 by royal economic society

house prices and consumer spending recent empirical work shows large consumption responses to house price movements this is at odds with a prominent theoretical view which using the logic of the permanent income hypothesis argues that consumption responses should be small we show that in contrast to this view workhorse models of consumption with incomplete markets calibrated to rich cross sectional micro facts actually predict large consumption responses in line with the data to explain this result we show that consumption responses to permanent house price shocks can be approximated by a simple and robust rule of thumb formula the marginal propensity to consume out of temporary income times the value of housing in our model consumption responses depend on a number of factors such as the level and distribution of debt the size and history of house price shocks and the level of credit supply each of these effects is naturally explained with our simple formula

a cultural explanation of the foreign bias in international asset allocation abstract this paper examines the foreign bias in international asset allocation following extant literature in behavioral finance we argue that a society s culture and the cultural distance between two markets play an important role in explaining the foreign bias in particular we hypothesize that the degree of a nation s uncertainty avoidance affects the foreign bias more uncertainty avoiding countries allocate less to foreign markets as does the degree of a country s individualism in individualistic countries performance is more directly attributed to a person and less to teams causing these individuals to be more aggressive in their foreign asset allocations we further expect that the degree of cultural distance between two countries affects the amount of money allocated to that market based on extensive robustness analyses we find support for our hypotheses on the role of culture in international asset allocation

joint dynamics of house prices and foreclosures this paper studies the joint transitional dynamics of the foreclosures and house prices in a standard life cycle incomplete markets model with housing and a realistic long term mortgage structure we calibrate our model to match several long term features of the u s housing market and analyze the effects of several unexpected and permanent shocks on the house price and the foreclosure rate both across the steady states and along the transition between the steady states we examine permanent unexpected shocks to the risk free interest rate the minimum down payment ratio and unemployment during the transition these shocks create large movements in house prices more importantly the foreclosure dynamics are quite significant along the transition compared to the steady state changes and there are strong feedbacks between foreclosures and house prices we assess the effects of a temporary reduction in the risk free interest rate which has moderate effects on house prices but little effect on foreclosure dynamics we also study the effects of an ex ante macroprudential policy which establishes a minimum down payment requirement at a higher threshold such a macroprudential policy helps substantially stabilize both house prices and foreclosures

loan originations and defaults in the mortgage crisis the role of the middle class this paper highlights the importance of middle class and high fico borrowers for the mortgage crisis contrary to popular belief which focuses on subprime and poor borrowers we show that mortgage originations increased for borrowers across all income levels and fico scores the relation between mortgage growth and income growth at the individual level remained positive throughout the pre 2007 period finally middle income high income and prime borrowers all sharply increased their share of delinquencies in the crisis these results are consistent with a demand side view where homebuyers and lenders bought into increasing house values and borrowers defaulted after prices dropped

should i default on my mortgage even if i can pay experimental evidence abstract we study strategic default in the laboratory i e in a controlled experiment subjects are initially endowed with a house and a mortgage we use neutral wording in the experiment and must decide at each period in which their mortgage is alive among three options making the mortgage payment selling the house or walking away from their house and defaulting on their mortgage at each point in time we can observe whether defaulters can afford to make the mortgage payment and thus directly compute the number of strategic defaulters subjects default in the right periods and quite fast learn what they should consume we find experimental support for the double trigger hypothesis individuals faced with low income and low house prices are more likely to default we observe that subjects default less than optimal and this decision is significantly affected by social norm concerns in the context of the experiment individuals under consume in the first periods of life they are cautious when indebted both introducing a 50 probability of recourse and a responsible homeowner reward are very effective in preventing default in the lab especially by individuals receiving a bad shock to income when house prices are low

to buy or not to buy consumer constraints in the housing market abstract we use a strategic household survey to study the sensitivity of intended homeownership decisions to financing constraints we find that the average stated likelihood of buying a home is strongly sensitive to the size of the required down payment which we vary exogenously across three scenarios this sensitivity is particularly high for respondents that appear more liquidity constrained based on observable characteristics including current renters or owners with low savings or low home equity for renters expectations of future rent inflation and of improvements to their personal financial situation also predict intention to buy

intergenerational redistribution in the great recession in this paper we construct a stochastic overlapping generations general equilibrium model in which households are subject to aggregate shocks that aect both wages and asset prices we use a calibrated version of the model to quantify how the welfare costs of severe recessions are distributed across dierent household age groups the model predicts that younger cohorts fare better than older cohorts when the equilibrium decline in asset prices is large relative to the decline in wages asset price declines hurt the old who rely on asset sales to nance consumption but benet the young who purchase assets at depressed prices in our preferred calibration asset prices decline more than twice as much as wages consistent with the experience of the us economy in the great recession a model recession is approximately welfare neutral for households in the 20 29 age group but translates into a large welfare loss of around 10 percent of lifetime consumption for households aged 70 and over

the impacts of india s food security policies on south asian wheat and rice markets we quantify the extent to which india s success in stabilizing its wheat and rice markets affects other countries in south asia we deal with the variability of indian trade and price policies by a

the effect of borrowing constraints on consumer liabilities this paper explores the effects of liquidity constraints on consumer liabilities while much empirical evidence attests to the importance of liquidity constraints in the u s economy evidence about the effects of borrowing constraints on consumer balance sheets is scarce using the 1983 survey of consumer finances data we estimate desired borrowing for unconstrained households we then evaluate the gap between predicted and observed debt for the sample of liquidity constrained consumers predicted debt is 75 percent higher than actual debt in the liquidity constrained sample thus the effect of removing borrowing constraints has quantitatively important implications for the allocation of debt in the household portfolio the removal of borrowing constraints would raise aggregate household liabilities by 9 percent copyright 1993 by ohio state university press

replication in empirical economics the journal of money credit and banking project this paper examines the role of replication in empirical economic research it presents the findings of a two year study that collected programs and data from authors and attempted to replicate their published results the research provides new and important information about the extent and causes of failures to replicate published results in economics the findings suggest that inadvertent errors in published empirical articles are a commonplace rather than a rare occurence copyright 1986 by american economic association

explaining diversity in the worldwide diffusion of codes of good governance extending earlier literature on diffusion of codes of good governance cggs by integrating the effect of national culture this study offers a novel perspective on cross national diversity in the worldwide diffusion of corporate governance best practices we argue that particular cultural dimensions affect the indicators i e total number of codes per country and identity of issuing organizations of such diffusion for a sample of 67 countries our analysis reveals that individualist cultures have a stronger tendency to develop cggs in cultures with a high receptivity to power differences there is a higher probability that the first issuers are the government directors or professional associations whereas with low receptivity the stock exchange and investors groups of issuers are more likely to initiate the first code the effects of culture remain significant even after accounting for differences in legal systems and economic institutions indicating that national culture may serve as a comprehensive indicator of the regulatory stance with respect to good governance indeed the effect size is large enough to give pause e g to a location choice and possibly has relevance for strategic decision making by international companies

consumption versus expenditure previous authors have documented a dramatic decline in food expenditures at the time of retirement we show that this is matched by an equally dramatic rise in time spent shopping for and preparing meals using a novel data set that collects detailed food diaries for a large cross section of u s households we show that neither the quality nor the quantity of food intake deteriorates with retirement status we also show that unemployed households experience a decline in food expenditure and food consumption commensurate with the impact of job displacement on permanent income these results highlight how direct measures of consumption distinguish between anticipated and unanticipated shocks to income whereas measures of expenditures obscure the distinction