optimal growth with many consumers abstract a method is described for constructing all pareto optimal allocations for a dynamic economy with many heterogeneous consumers under certainty in which both the technology and consumer preferences are recursive but preferences need not be additively separable over time optimal perfect foresight competitive equilibrium allocations are obtained through the study of a dynamic program for an economy with one consumption good sufficient conditions are given for the existence of a unique interior stationary distribution of consumption and wealth for a two person exchange economy sufficient conditions are given for the global asymptotic stability of the unique interior stationary point

fiscal policies in the world economy this paper uses a two country general equilibrium model of the world economy in order to analyze the effects of budget deficits and government spending on world rates of interest consumption and international indebtedness it demonstrates the difference between the effects of fiscal expenditures and tax cuts as well as between the effects of current policies and expected future policies it is shown that the qualitative effects of fiscal policies depend on whether the country introducing the policies runs a surplus or a deficit in its current account following the positive analysis of the short run and the steady state effects the paper concludes with a normative analysis of the welfare implications of budget deficits

adverse selection in the overlapping generations model the case of pure exchange abstract we examine the general equilibrium consequences of credit rationing that results from an adverse selection problem relative to a full information benchmark economy static incentive problems result in reductions in the rate of return at inside money equilibria and hence can cause dynamic inefficiency these problems also create a role for outside money and may convert otherwise classical into samuelsonian economies however even the presence of money does not support steady state equilibria with constrained optimality properties policies that do support constrained optima are outlined as are the consequences of credit rationing for the financing of government deficits journal of economic literature classification numbers e13 e40 e44 e50 g14

interpreting comovements in the trade balance and the terms of trade abstract i examine the relation between the trade balance and the terms of trade in a two country dynamic stochastic exchange economy with complete markets along an equilibrium path for this economy the relation is governed by the substitutability between foreign and domestic goods i find in contrast to non stochastic analyses of the harberger laursen metzler effect that a positive association does not require persistent shocks or non constant rates of time preference this contrast highlights the role played by the structure of asset markets complete and otherwise in generating equilibrium comovements

competitive lobbying over common pool resource regulations abstract common pool resource regulations are developed through a combination of resource assessment economic analysis and politics we investigate a management institution wherein users can influence a proposed common extraction cap through costly effort or lobbying our model incorporates two user types a few harvesters who efficiently handle extraction externalities and a larger number who do not without regulation we observe the efficient harvesters extracting more than the social optimum consistent with nash equilibrium given the opportunity to lobby we observe harvesters contributing to move inefficient proposed caps toward more efficient levels however lobbying is a public good and consistent with nash equilibrium the user type with weaker preference free rides on the type with stronger preferences leading to insufficient lobbying and inefficient regulations especially when the cap must be lowered this highlights an important limitation to participatory governance mechanisms when participation is costly

sky islands squirrels and scopes the political economy of an environmental conflict siting conflicts involving endangered species create economic and political pressures on existing property rules a welfare model of institu tional change with endogenous transaction costs is used to analytically describe the environmental con flict surrounding the mount graham international observatory project emphasis is placed on the evolution of property rights under conditions of imperfect information this case study illustrates a the nature of scientific and economic incentives for institutional change due to technological inno vation and b the process of institutional choice in a policy environment characterized by biological uncertainty and economic power jel q2

collective choice in the commons experimental results on proposed allocation rules and votes we analyse and empirically examine a multi level common pool resource cpr game consisting of a collective choice level game and an operational level game in the collective choice game participants anonymously propose allocation rules to be used in the operational game and vote anonymously on the proposed rules majority and unanimity rules are investigated our major finding is that both types of voting rules substantially increase efficiency relative to a baseline with no opportunity for collective choice but the distributional consequences of the rules differ to understand the process by which efficiency is improved better we examine four predictive theories related to proposals votes and outcomes

high public debt the italian experience introduction is there a public debt problem in italy luigi spaventa the end of large public debts alberto alesina monetary and fiscal policy coordination with a high public debt guido tabellini the management of public debt and financial markets marco pagano capital controls and public finance the experience in italy alberto giovannini public debt and households demand for monetary assets in italy andrea bollino and nicola rossi

deficits and intergenerational welfare in open economies this paper deals with public debt in open economies extending diamond s overlapping generations model to a small open economy as well as an international equilibrium of two large economies it focuses on the intergenerational welfare redistributions caused by an increase in public debt triggered by a temporary government budget deficit and shows how these redistributions differ in open and closed economies the interplay between the deficits in the government budget and the current account is also analyzed it is shown how a single period with a government deficit can be followed by a sequence of periods with a deficit in the current account

weakly non separable preferences and the harberger laursen metzler effect we examine the current account effect of a terms of trade deterioration for a small country model incorporating weakly non separable preferences a la shi 1994 under endogenous time preference this enables us to emphasize a welfare change as an important determinant of the current account even with increasing marginal impatience the harberger laursen metzler effect occurs if consumers preference toward imports is sufficiently wealth enhanced in that case a terms of trade deterioration must reduce steady state welfare to shift preference away from imports to exports several empirical implications are also derived jel classification f41 f32 preferences faiblement nonseparables et l effet de harberger laursen metzler l auteur examine l effet sur le compte courant d une deterioration des termes d echange dans un modele d un petit pays quand les preferences sont faiblement nonseparables a la shi 1994 et que la preference temporelle est endogene cela permet de souligner qu un changement dans le niveau de bien etre est un determinant important du compte courant contrairement a ce qu on trouve dans la litterature specialisee meme quand on postule une impatience marginale croissante l effet harberger laursen metzler se produit si la preference des consommateurs pour les importations est suffisamment dependante du niveau de richesse dans ce cas la une deterioration des termes d echange doit reduire le niveau de bien etre en regime permanent de maniere a deplacer les preferences des importations vers les exportations on deduit certaines implications empiriques de ces resultats

aggregate spending and the terms of trade is there a laursen metzler effect this paper investigates the spending and current account effects of terms of trade shifts in a model where households maximize utility over an infinite planning period in the framework developed here an economy specialized in production must experience a fall in aggregate spending and a current surplus as a result of an unanticipated permanent worsening in its terms of trade the paper s model thus provides a setting in which the current account deficit predicted by laursen and metzier harberger and others fails to materialize

redistributive taxation in a simple perfect foresight model abstract we investigate the redistributive potential of capital taxation in an intertemporal maximizing model of capital formation first even unanticipated redistributive capital taxation is severely limited in its effectiveness since it depresses wages second under any convergent redistributive tax policy which maximizes a paretian social objective the capital income tax will converge to zero independent of the factor supply elasticities these results are independent of workers holdings of capital

the terms of trade and the current account the harberger laursen metzler effect the paper examines the effect of terms of trade changes on a small country s spending and current account assuming optimizing behavior in an intertemporal framework with perfect international capital mobility a temporary future terms of trade deterioration implies a deterioration improvement of the trade balance whereas a permanent terms of trade deterioration has an ambiguous effect depending on the rate of time preference nominal and real variables are considered via exact price indexes two periods and an infinite horizon are examined

inflation debt and indexation these twelve essays cover topics on the frontier of indexation and practice an often proposed and debated tool of economic policy they range from highly theoretical discussions to practical experiences in brazil and europe rudiger dombush is ford international professor of economics at mit mario henrique simonsen is director of the postgraduate school of economics getulio vargas foundation rio de janeiro and former minister of finance and planning brazil

a simple dynamic general equilibrium model abstract we analyse a single sector economy with h 1 infinitely lived agents that operate in a continuous time framework utility functions are recursive but not additive both efficient and perfect foresight competitive equilibrium allocations are considered the existence and stability of such allocations are investigated locally i e in a neighbourhood of steady state allocations the model is shown to be useful for explaining the distribution of wealth and consumption across agents and for analysing the way in which wealth redistribution can affect the dynamics of aggregate economic variables

deterioration of the terms of trade and capital accumulation a reexamination of the laursen metzler effect abstract this paper analyzes the effect of both a permanent and a temporary deterioration in the terms of trade on a small open economy the model based on intertemporal optimization emphasizes the labor leisure choice and the role of capital accumulation the transitional dynamics is shown to depend upon the long run response of the capital stock to the terms of trade shock this consists of a negative substitution effect together with a positive income effect whether or not the laursen metzler effect holds depends upon whether the income effect dominates the substitution effect

the harberger laursen metzler effect under capital market imperfections abstract this paper re examines the effects of a permanent terms of trade change on a dynamic small open economy facing an imperfect world capital market as studied in obstfeld 1982 aggregate spending and the terms of trade is there a laursen metzler effect quarterly journal of economics 97 251 270 which assumes that the economy faces a downward sloping bond curve the novelty of the present paper is that a saddle path stable steady state comes into existence under the assumption that households subjective discount rate is a decreasing function of instantaneous utility the harberger laursen metzler hlm effect is shown to hold unambiguously i e an unanticipated permanent terms of trade deterioration leads to an increase in aggregate expenditure and a current account deficit this result is in stark contrast to those obtained in obstfeld 1982 aggregate spending and the terms of trade is there a laursen metzler effect quarterly journal of economics 97 251 270 and many other studies in the literature

economic heterogeneity and the commons effects on collective action and collective goods provisioning summary the question of how economic and socio cultural heterogeneity impacts commons management has been receiving increasing attention but without resolution however the issue is increasingly important in a globalizing world this paper builds upon recent theoretical works to provide a clearer understanding of the conditions under which we might expect economic inequality to have positive or negative effects of critical importance to the argument is the distinction between the problem of collective action and the problem of providing collective goods a synthetic set of predictions is subsequently developed and tested with a comparative analysis of case studies of fisheries and irrigation systems

decreasing and increasing marginal impatience and the terms of trade in an interdependent world economy abstract using a two good two country model we examine macroeconomic adjustment by allowing for decreasing and increasing marginal impatience dmi and imi in the reference case where both countries have imi a negative output shock in one country lowers the interest rate and both countries welfare levels in steady state whereas when either one country has dmi the negative income shock raises the interest rate thereby benefiting the imi country and harming the dmi one in steady state in a country either with imi or dmi the harberger laursen metzler effect takes place if negative welfare supporting effects dominate positive income compensating effects

government spending and the real exchange rate i study the effect of government spending on the real exchange rate in an open economy version of the sidrauski model with a time varying rate of time preference that introduces complementarity between consumption at different points in time i show that a balanced budget fiscal expansion causes a real depreciation and a current account surplus if the expansion falls on traded goods if the increase falls instead on nontraded goods both the stylized results of a real appreciation and a current account deficit and the perverse result of an appreciation and a surplus can occur

coping with the tragedy of the commons game structure and design of rules the paper provides an assessment of some recent results of the large amount of new institutional economics analyses investigating a common pool resource setting with a specific focus on game theory models most of the studies have used a non cooperative approach in order to explain how under provision for the resource or its over use the so called tragedy of the commons can be avoided within given management rules they show how the characteristics of the game payoff matrix repetition or of the users group size wealth heterogeneity and moral norms may give incentives for the latter to play in a way that benefits all users by contrast much fewer articles have used a formalized approach to assess the possibility for players to design new rules to overcome the initial tragedy of the commons the article ends with some proposals of directions for future research

the rate of time preference and dynamic economic analysis strong restrictions on the structure of preferences are a central feature in the received theory of intertemporal allocation in fact most of the modern literature concerned with capital theoretic problems represents preferences by a functional in which an additive utility function is discounted by a constant rate of time preference this specification is attractive because it is analytically tractable in dynamic models and it clearly delineates how tastes and opportunities interact to determine an economy s household s paths of consumption and capital formation however its rigid structure constancy of time preference severely limits the conclusions and explanatory power of the corresponding models this paper considers a class of utility functionals in continuous time which have the appealing feature that the rate of time preference depends systematically on an index of aggregate future consumption the more flexible structure embodied in these functionals leads to important generalizations and

weakly nonseparable preferences and distortionary taxes in a small open economy this paper examines the dynamic effects of distortionary taxes in a small open economy the employed utility function implies both endogenous rates of time preference and a tractable form of weak nonseparability between consumption and leisure weak nonseparability induces novel long run welfare and wealth effects of taxes and generates very different current account movements endogenous rates of time preference facilitate the examination of a tax on international borrowing and lending copyright 1994 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

dynamics of the trade balance and the terms of trade the j curve the authors provide a theoretical interpretation of two features of international data the countercyclical movements in net exports and the tendency for the trade balance to be negatively correlated with current and future movements in terms of trade but positively correlated with past movements they document the same properties in a two country stochastic growth model in which trade fluctuations reflect in large part the dynamics of capital formation the authors find that their general equilibrium perspective is essential the relation between the trade balance and the terms of trade depends critically on the source of fluctuations copyright 1994 by american economic association

capital accumulation and the current account in a two country model abstract this paper examines the joint determination of international debt and capital accumulation in a two country model national rates of time preference are endogenous adjusting along an optimal path to come into equality with one another in the steady state the characteristics of short run current account dynamics are crucially linked to world capital accumulation and to a country s long run net external asset position steady state creditor countries tend to have current account surpluses during episodes of world output growth and vice versa for debtor countries this gives rise to possible non monotonic adjustment in the current account and consumption

habit persistence and the harberger laursen metzler effect in an infinite horizon model abstract the habit persistence model of ryder and heal is used to examine the harberger laursen metzler h l m effect our results are in contrast to the general view in the literature that the stability requirements preclude the h l m effect in an infinite horizon model we show that if the marginal utility of real consumption is strongly increasing in the habitual standard of living then the h l m effect holds and a terms of trade deterioration reduces savings however if the marginal utility of real consumption is not sufficiently strongly increasing or is decreasing in the habitual standard then the h l m effect is overturned

the role of social security in an economy with asymmetric information and financial intermediaries abstract we study an overlapping generations model with production asymmetric information and competitive financial intermediaries social security may be beneficial even when it should not be used under full information unless credit rationing emerges with pooling contracts in this case social security could be welfare reducing even when the safe rate of return falls short of population growth we provide a full characterization of constrained pareto efficient allocations and prove that when the expected marginal product exceeds population growth and high risk firms have a low probability of default no tax transfer policy can support these allocations as competitive equilibria when equilibria are constrained inefficient optimal contracts are pooling and the optimal stock market value is zero

slippage in conservation cost sharing we examine whether subsidies for conservation on working farmland induce farmers to expand cultivation on more vulnerable land potentially offsetting reductions in environmental spillovers using a switching regression model with endogenous switching and censored endogenous variables applied to maryland farm level data we find no indication that cost share awards are targeted toward water quality improvements receipt of cost sharing increases conservation practice adoption but not the shares of land allocated to conservation implying little adverse selection in awards cost sharing decreases the share of land allocated to vegetative cover so that environmental quality improvements from conservation are likely offset to some degree

agricultural land retirement and slippage lessons from an australian case study this paper uses a computable general equilibrium cge model to examine the economic implications of agricultural land retirement from wool production for conservation in australia employing an innovative specific factors characterization of production to generate short run and long run results we show that the potential welfare gains from land retirement can be significant however in several scenarios examined we find that slippage in agricultural production is significant resulting in reduced welfare our slippage results provide insights into the relationship between the potential causes of slippage and describe how a land retirement policy can be designed to minimize this effect jel c68 q24

modeling effort and lobbying in a heterogeneous common pool resource setting extraction from a common pool resource cpr such as a fishery can lead to socially inefficient and undesirable outcomes as a result of appropriation problems through regulation of the cpr users may achieve a more profitable and socially efficient outcome feeny et al land econ 72 2 187 205 1996 delve into some of the assumptions made by traditional cpr models and how use of those assumptions provides an incomplete framework to guide fishery policy in the theoretical models we develop we relax two of those assumptions cpr users are homogeneous and are unable to create or influence management of the resource we note a case where regulation of the individual user can induce others to harvest more and relate this to the slippage effect concept regarding resource sustainability we document situations where incentives exist for cpr users to lobby for tighter regulations and thus increase profits by limiting the tragedy of the commons influence

contracting problems and regulation the case of the fishery the inefficiencies of common property fisheries are of continuing concern to economists the early work by scott gordon 1954 and anthony scott 1955 outlined the problem and later studies by james crutchfield and giulio pontecorvo 1969 and frederick bell 1972 provided empirical estimates of the losses that result those studies were followed by the dynamic models of colin clark 1976 and james quirk and vernon smith 1970 of optimal harvest rates and the use of corrective taxes or quotas to achieve them but in spite of a large and growing literature and the persuasiveness of the outlined efficiency criteria most fisheries retain common property aspects with overcapitalization and excessive labor input why those conditions persist and the failure of the regulatory response to them are the issues addressed in this paper we examine a number of fisheries but focus on the texas shrimp industry which is one of the nation s most valuable fisheries for a single species and which shares the common property characteristics observed elsewhere it is considered overcapitalized and catch per unit of effort is falling 2 examination of the fishery reveals the many margins along which rent dissipation occurs and the nature of the regulations necessary for controlling fishing effort to avoid those losses the regulatory environment in texas is complicated by conflict within the fishery between inshore and offshore fishermen the latter assert that bay shrimping reduces the number of shrimp that successfully migrate to the gulf the inshore fishery is highlighted by another issue the recent resettlement of some 30 45 000 vietnamese refugees including many fishermen along the texas coast marine advisory service paul starr their entry has been met by hostility and violence from existing shrimpers who recognize that they are in an environment characterized by the absence of property rights bay shrimpers have lobbied the texas legislature for broad limits on new entrants yet ironically the sale of additional boats by individual shrimpers to the vietnamese has facilitated entry of the refugees into the fishery regulations in the texas shrimp and other fisheries are incomplete leaving many options for rent dissipation uncontrolled because of high contracting costs among fishermen and political factors that mold government actions contracting costs are high among heterogeneous fishermen who vary principally with regard to fishing skill 3 montana state university and texas a m university respectively we benefitted from comments by terry anderson raymond c battalio gardner brown oscar burt micha gisser wade griffin john r moroney anthony d scott peter temin and participants in workshops at texas a m university and the university of washington research assistance was provided by scott barnhart and phil mizzi funding was provided by sea grant texas a m university throughout this paper we use the terms common property and open access interchangeably here the terms describe a situation where no property rights group or individual exist s for the resource 2catch per unit of effort in the inshore texas gulf and federal gulf waters is presented for 1963 77 by w l griffin c g tydlacka and w e grant they show catch per unit of effort generally falling in inshore and offshore waters while catch per unit of effort fluctuates from year to year it falls from approximately 360 kg shrimp per unit of effort to 220 kg from 1963 to 1977 the common property nature of the fishery is reflected in the following statistics since 1975 the number of vessels has grown by 23 percent nelson swartz for fish houses the record of entry is similar between 1970 a d 1977 the number of firms grew from 259 to 287 though during that period many left the industry as others entered the number of fish houses was calculated from license data supplied by the texas parks and wildlife department the record of entry by fish houses suggests that monopsony as discussed by colin clark and gordon munro is absent in the fishery 3there may be minor differences in labor leisure choices and capital but our statistical evidence and discussions with fishermen indicate that catch variations are largely due to skill government regulations in the texas bays restrict capital and our empirical evidence shows boats to be relatively homogeneous

luxury and wealth i develop a dynamic theory of luxury consumption particularly emphasizing the causal effect that pursuit of luxury goods has on wealth accumulation a quasi luxury is defined as a good whose marginal rate of substitution is increasing in a utility index under certain conditions it is indeed a luxury good when current wealth holding falls short of exceeds long run needs luxury consumption is postponed more less easily than necessity consumption due to a lower higher time preference for luxury and or a higher intertemporal elasticity of substitution thereof preferences for quasi luxuries lead to a higher steady state value of wealth or capital