returns to micro entrepreneurship in an emerging economy a quantile study of entrepreneurial indonesian households welfare presenting low individual returns but providing households with livelihoods and means to cope with economic vulnerability micro entrepreneurship s evaluation should include both context and heterogeneity using a four wave panel of 9 157 indonesian households this study proposes a quantile estimation of micro entrepreneurship s effects on four household level complementary measures of welfare income consumption household and total assets it evidences substantial positive but decreasing effects on the four measures with the highest relative returns for the poorest for this category micro entrepreneurship primarily provides returns in the form of income translating into higher relative consumption but more importantly into a greater relative assets accumulation

taxing the unobservable the impact of the shadow economy on inflation and taxation summary because the shadow economy cannot be taxed it erodes the tax base and reduces tax revenues forcing governments to resort to other ways to finance their expenditures accordingly a larger shadow economy should give governments an incentive to shift revenue sources from taxes to inflation in line with the public finance motive of inflation in this paper we recall that point in a simple canonical model then empirically test it in a sample of up to 153 developed and developing countries over the 1999 2007 period in line with the model s prediction we indeed observe a positive relation between inflation and the size of the shadow economy and a negative relation between the tax burden and the size of the shadow economy we find that both relations are conditional on central bank independence and on the exchange rate regime implying that it is the strongest in institutional set ups that constrain monetary policy the least both relations are present in the sub sample of developed countries as well as the sub sample of developing countries both relations survive several robustness checks using various sets of control variables including the stock of debt controlling for endogeneity using alternative estimates of the shadow economy and estimating the two relations as a system of equations

variability in the effects of monetary policy on economic activity this paper documents and interprets the variability in the effects of monetary policy on economic activity using the method of rolling vector autoregression and united states data from 1959 01 to 1994 12 while i find robust support for short run price stickiness and long run output neutrality i also find that the responses of output and price levels to monetary shocks are otherwise quite variable seven episodes of differing responses are identified the effects of monetary policy are found to be stronger when monetary shocks are negative and are related to some gradual changes in the economy

the response of the informal sector to trade liberalization this paper studies the relationship between trade liberalization and informality it is often claimed that increased foreign competition in developing countries leads to an expansion of the informal sector defined as the sector that does not comply with labor market legislation using data from two countries that experienced large trade barrier reductions in the 1980 s and 1990 s brazil and colombia we examine the response of the informal sector to liberalization in brazil we find no evidence of a relationship between trade policy and informality in colombia we do find evidence of such a relationship but only for the period preceding a major labor market reform that increased the flexibility of the colombian labor market these results point to the significance of labor market institutions in assessing the effects of trade policy on the labor market

when do long run identifying restrictions give reliable results many recent articles have identified behavioral disturbances in vector autoregressions by imposing restrictions on the long run effects of shocks this article demonstrates that this approach will be unreliable unless the underlying economy satisfies three types of strong restrictions although many aspects of these issues have been raised before this article draws out and illustrates the implications for inferences under the long run scheme furthermore it provides strategies for dealing with the problems

least cost 100 renewable electricity scenarios in the australian national electricity market least cost options are presented for supplying the australian national electricity market nem with 100 renewable electricity using wind photovoltaics concentrating solar thermal cst with storage hydroelectricity and biofuelled gas turbines we use a genetic algorithm and an existing simulation tool to identify the lowest cost investment and operating scenarios of renewable technologies and locations for nem regional hourly demand and observed weather in 2010 using projected technology costs for 2030 these scenarios maintain the nem reliability standard limit hydroelectricity generation to available rainfall and limit bioenergy consumption the lowest cost scenarios are dominated by wind power with smaller contributions from photovoltaics and dispatchable generation cst hydro and gas turbines the annual cost of a simplied transmission network to balance supply and demand across nem regions is a small proportion of the annual cost of the generating system annual costs are compared with a scenario where fossil fuelled power stations in the nem today are replaced with modern fossil substitutes at projected 2030 costs and a carbon price is paid on all emissions at moderate carbon prices which appear required to address climate change 100 renewable electricity would be cheaper on an annual basis than the replacement scenario

the informal sector in developed and less developed countries a literature survey the main goal of this study is two fold 1 to provide ageneral overview of the contributions to the literature on theinformal sector with a special focus on the public choiceapproach and 2 to compare these contributions across twoinstitutionally different types of countries developed andless developed developing and transition countries thepaper focuses on the criteria used to define the informalsector the relationship between the formal and informaleconomy tax evasion and public choice analysis it isstressed throughout this paper that the distinction betweenthe two types of countries is of key importance

gender entrepreneurship and the formal informal dilemma evidence from indonesia summary this study analyzes the preferences of entrepreneurs about formality and focuses on the role of gender relying on original data collected in indonesia we unpack the differences between various types of female entrepreneurs currently in the informal sector according to their preferences about formalization contrary to the existing literature we find that female entrepreneurs possess highly nuanced preferences about formalization that are conditional on many factors the preference for formalization is strongest among female entrepreneurs who are older married rural based and have recently started their firms our work contributes to research that seeks to better understand entrepreneurial preferences and the role that gender plays

oil price shocks and real gdp growth empirical evidence for some oecd countries this study assesses empirically the effects of oil price shocks on the real economic activity of the main industrialized countries multivariate var analysis is carried out using both linear and non linear models the latter category includes three approaches employed in the literature namely the asymmetric scaled and net specifications evidence of a non linear impact of oil prices on real gdp is found in particular oil price increases are found to have an impact on gdp growth of a larger magnitude than that of oil price declines with the latter being statistically insignificant in most cases among oil importing countries oil price increases are found to have a negative impact on economic activity in all cases but japan moreover the effect of oil shocks on gdp growth differs between the two oil exporting countries in the sample with the uk being negatively affected by an oil price increase and norway benefiting from it

the effects of oil price shocks on the iranian economy abstract the iranian economy is highly vulnerable to oil price fluctuations this paper analyzes the dynamic relationship between oil price shocks and major macroeconomic variables in iran by applying a var approach the study points out the asymmetric effects of oil price shocks for instance positive as well as negative oil price shocks significantly increase inflation we find a strong positive relationship between positive oil price changes and industrial output growth unexpectedly we can only identify a marginal impact of oil price fluctuations on real government expenditures furthermore we observe the dutch disease syndrome through significant real effective exchange rate appreciation

iranian oil free zone and international oil prices abstract one of the main elements of economic sanctions against iran due to its nuclear and military programs is crude oil exportation restrictions in addition to investment in iranian energy related projects senders of such sanction are interested in understanding the impacts of such embargos on international oil prices we apply unrestricted vector autoregressive var model using impulse response functions irf and variance decomposition analysis vda tools with annual data from 1965 to 2012 to analyze the dynamic response of international oil prices to iranian oil export sanction controlling for the supply of non iranian oil the world gdp per capita and post islamic revolution exogenous dummy variables we show that international oil prices respond negatively and statistically significant to increasing shock in absolute negative changes of the iranian oil exports our proxy of iran oil sanctions following the first 2 years after shock the main reason is the positive response of the non iranian oil supply to negative shocks in iranian oil exports filling the missing supply of iranian oil in international markets

an analysis of australia s large scale renewable energy target restoring market confidence in 2001 australia introduced legislation requiring investment in new renewable electricity generating capacity the legislation was significantly expanded in 2009 to give effect to a 20 renewable energy target ret importantly the policy was introduced with bipartisan support and is consistent with global policy trends in this article we examine the history of the policy and establish that the stop start nature of renewable policy development has resulted in investors withholding new capital until greater certainty is provided we utilise the methodology from simshauser and nelson 2012 to examine whether capital market efficiency losses would occur under certain policy scenarios the results show that electricity costs would increase by between 51 million and 119 million if the large scale ret is abandoned even after accounting for avoided renewable costs our conclusions are clear we find that policymakers should be guided by a high level public policy principle in relation to large scale renewable energy policy constant review is not reform

oil and the macroeconomy since world war ii all but one of the u s recessions since world war ii have been preceded typically with a lag of around three fourths of a year by a dramatic increase in the price of crude petroleum this does not mean that oil shocks caused these recessions evidence is presented however that even over the period 1948 72 this correlation is statistically significant and nonspurious supporting the proposition that oil shocks were a contributing factor in at least some of the u s recessions prior to 1972 by extension energy price increases may account for much of post opec macroeconomic performance

crude oil and the macroeconomy tests of some popular notions a note perhaps no other economic events in the post world war ii era have generated as much attention as the series of crude oil price shocks that have jolted the world economy since the opec boycott of 1973 a tremendous amount of space in the popular and professional literature has been devoted to analyzing the impacts of these shocks on the developed economies and the adjustments these shocks have induced one residual of this literature has been a general impression that since 1973 the functional relationship between crude oil prices and the developed macroeconomies has been dramatically and fundamentally altered yet to our knowledge no one has formally tested this impression recent evidence of hamilton 1983 suggests that crude oil prices had a strong impact on the u s business cycle well before 1973 further while textbook treatments of oil price shocks tend to highlight cost push inflationary effects the research of berndt and wood 1975 1979 and wilcox 1983 indicates the net complementarity between energy and capital in the u s economy is quite strong both before and after 1973 thus oil price shocks may have stronger real effects than generally believed in this paper we formally test three popular notions associated with the so called

dynamics of electricity consumption oil price and economic growth global perspective this study uses the data from 157 countries from 1960 to 2014 to analyze the relationship between economic growth electricity consumption oil prices capital and labor the economic growth of developing countries with industrial infrastructure has a more significant association with electricity consumption than oil prices we use oil prices and electricity consumption jointly to study highly predictive observations for economic growth the data are categorized by income oecd and regional levels the panel cointegration long run parameter estimation and pool mean group tests are used to analyze the cointegration and short run and long run relationships between the variables the empirical results indicate the presence of cointegration between the variables the presence of feedback effects between electricity consumption and economic growth oil prices and economic growth is valid these findings confirm that in spite of the oil prices developing countries rely heavily on electricity consumption for economic growth in the short run growth and feedback effects suggest that more vigorous electricity policies should be implemented to attain sustainable economic growth for the long term

formal measures of the informal sector wage gap in mexico el salvador and peru using comparable micro level data from three countries we ask what type of person works in the informal sector and whether informal workers earn lower wages than observationally equivalent workers in the formal sector the characteristics of informal workers are similar across countries surprisingly when we control for these personal characteristics we find a significant wage premium associated with formal employment in el salvador and peru but a premium associated with work in the informal sector in mexico a model of endogenous selection offers little help in explaining the differences in wage patterns the research casts doubt on the received wisdom that the informal sector always and everywhere is a poorly paid but easily entered refuge for those who have no other employment opportunities this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

a reassessment of kenya s rural and urban informal sector abstract the nature and role of the so called informal sector are re examined on the basis of a detailed country study using different data sources relating to kenya which have recently been published or become available specific kenyan phenomena are identified and commented upon particularly the importance of divided households obtaining their living in both agriculture and the urban informal sector and the tendency of informal sector manufacturing enterprises to form agglomerations the informal sector is seen as a heterogeneous set of activities urban or rural which have the common features of catering not uniquely to the mass of low income consumers existing competitively due to the low supply price of labor and being capable of retaining an important role in economies with widely varying levels of development so long as this supply price remains low

the urban informal sector in uruguay its internal structure characteristics and effects abstract the literature on third world urbanization has focused increasingly on the informal sector as a mechanism to explain first the survival strategies of the poor excluded from regular employment and second the strategies of formal firms to bypass regulatory constraints and reduce costs this paper pursues these lines of research in a special context namely that of uruguay a small country which followed a protective labor policy for many years but reversed it during the 1970s and early 1980s data come from a sample of 700 households in montevideo which are representative of the low income neighborhoods that comprise approximately two thirds of the city s population interviews were held in 1983 1984 the analysis focuses on the following issues 1 the proportion of individuals and households who participate in the informal economy 2 the types of informality that exist in both principal and secondary occupations 3 the effects of informal employment on income 4 differences in age sex and education between different types of workers 5 changes in informal employment over time implications of findings for general definitions and hypotheses about the informal sector are examined the relationship of results to the neoliberal experiments attempted in uruguay between 1973 and 1984 is discussed

another pass through bites the dust oil prices and inflation el presente articulo presenta evidencia de que el traspaso de los movimientos del precio del petroleo al nivel general de precios ha disminuido en forma importante en las ultimas decadas se encuentra que tal disminucion es generalizada para un amplio conjunto de paises luego de documentar correlaciones entre el indice de precios al consumidor y el precio del petroleo se utilizan dos estrategias de estimacion en un intento por identificar adecuadamente el efecto inflacionario de los shocks del petroleo primero se estima la curva de phillips tradicional para 34 paises aumentada de modo de incluir el petroleo y testear si existe quiebre estructural esta metodologia muestra una caida en el traspaso medio estimado para los paises industrializados y en menor medida para las economias emergentes segundo se estiman vectores autorregresivos en ventanas moviles para una submuestra de paises para los que existen datos suficientes se derivan funciones de impulso respuesta de la inflacion a los shocks petroleros y se interpretan las integrales como estimaciones del traspaso se encuentra que el efecto de los shocks petroleros sobre la inflacion se ha reducido en la mayoria de los doce paises de la muestra entre los factores que podrian explicar esta caida en nuestra opinion los mas importantes son que la intensidad economica del petroleo se ha reducido en el mundo que tambien ha disminuido el traspaso del tipo de cambio que el ambiente inflacionario es mas favorable y que el actual shock del precio del petroleo es el resultado de una solida demanda mundial estos factores ayudan a entender no solo por que el actual shock ha tenido efectos inflacionarios limitados sino asimismo por que sus consecuencias en el producto tambien han sido limitadas

price of oil and world inflation and recession new evidence shows that the commonly held assumption that the 1973 74 oil price increase directly affected us and world inflation and subsequent recession is consistent with the empirical data an extended lucas varro real income equation applied to the us united kingdom canada france germany italy japan and the netherlands gives mixed results partly because of price control and decontrol programs simulation experiments on the price control variable using us data finds strong effects further studies can be made when consistent international data is available for the 1979 80 period 18 references 4 figures 3 tables dck

segmented or competitive labour markets a normal roy model with four sectors is developed it allows to derive tests of several assumptions on the working of the labor market strongly or weakly competitive or segmented it shows that more important a feature of labor markets than segmentation is the presence of comparative advantages for individuals between the various economic sectors the model is applied to data on women s labor force participation in the main towns of colombia in 1980 it uses multivariate probit and tobit techniques copyright 1991 by the econometric society

can africa compete with china in manufacturing the role of relative unit labor costs in this paper examine sub saharan africa s ssa bilateral trade and cost competitiveness with china we review patterns of bilateral trade between ssa and china showing an extraordinary imbalance in the structure of trade in that china overwhelmingly exports manufactured products to ssa and almost exclusively imports primary products in return our principal means of assessing the competitiveness of ssa s manufacturing sector vis a vis china are measures of relative unit labor costs rulc we find that african rulc levels have generally been very high relative to china but declined over the 2000s as china s wages have risen faster than chinese productivity while the reverse is true for the ssa countries in our sample nevertheless rulc vis a vis china remained elevated for many ssa countries as of 2010 generally high rulc along with weaknesses in the business climate suggest that most ssa countries are unlikely to be competitive in labor intensive manufacturing any time soon

household labor supply in urban areas of bolivia we analyze labor supply behavior and the choice between formal and informal sector work of the two spouses in families in urban areas of a developing country using cross section data from bolivia drawn in 1989 the model generalizes the neoclassical family labor supply model nonmonetary returns of formal sector employment capture the fact that the choice between sectors is not exclusively based on wage differentials wage equations nonmonetary returns equations and labor supply equations are estimated jointly by smooth simulated maximum likelihood we find substantial cross wage elasticities of working hours of both partners and large substitution elasticities between the two sectors

asymmetry in business fluctuations international evidence on friedman s plucking model abstract friedman s plucking model of business fluctuations suggests that output cannot exceed a ceiling level and it is occasionally plucked downward by recession output has depth and steepness this study uses a sample of 12 industrial and emerging economies and finds some evidence that negative shocks are largely transitory while positive shocks are mostly permanent in a few cases as implied by the plucking model output fluctuations tend to be asymmetric recessions are transitory and duration dependent although expansions are not there is however serial correlation in almost all cases international evidence on friedman s plucking model is far from robust

does access to foreign markets shape internal migration evidence from brazil this paper investigates how internal migration is affected by brazil s increased integration into the world economy it analyzes the impact of regional differences in access to foreign demand on sector specific bilateral migration rates between the brazilian states for the years 1995 to 2003 using international trade data a foreign market access measure is computed at the sectoral level which is exogenous to domestic migration a higher foreign market access is associated with a higher local labor demand and attracts workers via two potential channels higher wages and new job opportunities results show that both channels play a significant role in internal migration further we find a heterogeneous impact across industries according to their comparative advantage on the world market however the observed impact is driven by the strong reaction of low educated workers to changes in market access this finding is consistent with the fact that brazil is exporting mainly goods that are intensive in unskilled labor

booming sector and de industrialisation in a small open economy this paper presents a theoretical analysis of the dutch disease the phenomenon whereby a boom in one traded goods sector squeezes porfitability in other traded goods sectors both by directly bi

what happened to the oil price macroeconomy relationship abstract strong evidence is found that oil prices no longer granger cause many u s macroeconomic indicator variables in data after 1973 a number of potential explanations are explored that sample stability issues are responsible that oil prices are now endogenous and that linear and symmetric specifications misrepresent the form of the oil price interaction none of these hypotheses are supported by the data the opec price increases do appear to have had significant impacts while the effects of the price declines of the 1980s are smaller and harder to characterize these results have potentially important implications for the large body of research which utilizes oil prices as an instrumental or explanatory variable

this is what happened to the oil price macroeconomy relationship abstract many of the quarterly oil price increases observed since 1985 are corrections to even bigger oil price decreases the previous quarter when one looks at the net increase in oil prices over the year recent data are consistent with the historical correlation between oil shocks and recessions

inflation employment and the dutch disease in oil exporting countries a short run disequilibrium analysis the author uses nontraded goods and labor shortages in the gulf countries the decline of the traded goods sector in oil producers dutch disease and the absence of employment benefits of higher oil revenues in latin american oil producers higher oil revenues can be likened to a transfer putting pressure on non oil traded nt goods prices and drawing resources out of the t sector the slope of the wage indexation line determines whether classical unemployment or repressed inflation results various policy measures are analyzed 3 references 8 figures

government effectiveness and regional variation in informal employment abstract this article analyses the role of government effectiveness in the determination of informal employment a theoretical model is developed in which local governance and worker skill level are assumed to influence the decision of the worker whether to seek employment in the formal or informal sectors the model is assessed empirically using data from brazil where almost half of the urban labour force is employed informally the empirical analysis supports the predictions of the model and suggests that the probability of a worker being employed informally is lower in regions with better governance and higher average education

australia approaching an energy crossroads abstract this paper considers energy policy in australia in the context of its considerable energy resources climate change and a recent change in government it examines the possible paths that future energy use and policy in australia could take including published projections based largely on a business as usual approach and projections based on a dramatic shift towards more efficient use of energy and renewable energy technologies it also considers the various factors affecting future policy direction including energy security the advocacy in australia for establishing nuclear electricity generation and other parts of the nuclear fuel cycle responses to climate change and carbon sequestration it concludes that while the australian government is currently reluctant to move away from a dependence on coal and unlikely to adopt nuclear energy generation a low emissions future without waiting for the deployment of carbon capture and storage and without resorting to nuclear power is within reach however in the face of strong pressure from interest groups associated with energy intensive industry making the necessary innovations will require further growth of community concern about climate change and the development of greater understanding of the feasibility of employing low carbon emissions options

oil revenue shocks and government spending behavior in iran abstract oil revenues play an important role in the political economy of iran on average 60 of the iranian government revenues and 90 of export revenues originate from oil and gas resources current international sanctions on iran have mainly targeted the oil production capacity of iran and its exports to the global markets in this study we analyze the dynamic effects of oil shocks on different categories of the iranian government expenditures from 1959 to 2007 using impulse response functions irf and variance decomposition analysis vdc techniques the main results show that iran s military and security expenditures significantly respond to a shock in oil revenues or oil prices while social spending components do not show significant reactions to such shocks

impact of oil price shocks on output inflation and the real exchange rate evidence from selected asean countries this article analyses the impact of oil price shocks on real output inflation and the real exchange rate in thailand malaysia singapore the philippines and indonesia asean 5 using a structural var model the cointegration tests indicate that the macroeconomic variables of these countries are cointegrated and share common trends in the long run the impulse response functions reveal that oil price fluctuations do not impact the asean 5 economies in the long run and much of its effect is absorbed within five to six quarters the variance decomposition results further assert that with a few exceptions oil price shocks do not explain a significant variation in any of the variables under consideration we also identify a very unique pattern of response to oil price fluctuations between malaysia and singapore and between the philippines and thailand the pairs exhibit a high degree of similarity in their responses they do not share any commonalities across the group

oil price shocks stock market economic activity and employment in greece abstract using a multivariate vector autoregression var approach this paper attempts to shed light into the dynamic relationship among oil prices real stock prices interest rates real economic activity and employment for greece the empirical evidence suggests that oil price changes affect real economic activity and employment oil prices are important in explaining stock price movements stock returns do not lead to changes in real activity and employment

evidence from lagos on discrimination across ethnic and class identities in informal trade abstract this paper investigates the determinants of price discrimination in the rice market in one neighborhood of lagos nigeria there has been little empirical study of how ethnicity and class shape economic outcomes in informal market interactions we conduct an audit experiment one of the first audit experiments in africa seeking to address this gap we experimentally manipulate class with confederates presenting as different classes this may be the first audit study to take this approach this is also one of the first in person audits to have multiple transactions for each buyer and seller thus allowing for the use of buyer and seller fixed effects we find little evidence that all else equal sharing an ethnicity on its own influences market treatment class however does have substantial effects at least for non coethnics high class non coethnics receive higher prices per unit than low class non coethnics our findings suggest that the boundaries of group identity appear to be at least partially defined by class in the informal economy

labor market choices earnings and informal networks in khartoum sudan a micro economic labor force model was used to explain the relationship between five labor market segments and earnings in khartoum sudan the assumption was that individuals maximized their earnings by comparing the rewards of working in alternative and mutually exclusive segments of the labor market the polychotomous choice model allowing for unobserved factors used the hay dubin and mcfadden extension of heckmans technique for correcting for selection bias data were obtained from a private survey conducted by the authors during 1988 89 the sample included 1756 small scale enterprises and 1505 self employed workers and 2572 employees in the informal sector and 8037 workers in 170 formal sectors firms 12114 workers the five segments included public sector employment in the formal sector private sector employment in the formal sector private large self employed in the informal sector informal sector employees working in permanent structures private small and informal sector employees working for unlicensed firms without a permanent structure unprotected workers earnings were lowest in the unprotected segment and highest among self employed businessmen the model supported the view that private and large employers hired the best workers findings supported kannapans hypothesis that informal networks based on ethnicity were important in determining access to urban labor markets a high correlation was found between province of birth of the employer and employees the public sector earnings model had the highest degree of explanatory power of earnings differences wages in the private small and unprotected segments were also determined by education the findings suggested that studies of the rate of return to education should account for how social networks affect the probability of workers obtaining employment in a particular segment and should account for fixed wage rates in particular segments

formal but less equal gender wage gaps in formal and informal jobs in urban brazil in developing countries a large share of employees work informally and are not covered by employment protection legislation i study here how gender wage inequality differs across formal and informal jobs in brazil the raw gender wage gap is higher in informal jobs 13 compared to formal jobs 5 but i show that this difference is an artefact of different male and female selection processes first women have better observable characteristics than men and the female advantage is stronger among formal employees second men and women entering formal and informal jobs have different unobservable characteristics controlling for endogenous selection into formal vs informal jobs i find that the gender gap in wage offers is high and increases with education in formal jobs in informal jobs however estimated wage offers are the same for men and women i discuss the potential implications of these findings regarding the effect of labour market regulation on gender wage gaps

estimation of direct and indirect impact of oil price on growth abstract using a new methodology this paper measures the direct and indirect effects of oil prices on gdp growth of 12 economies because of the indirect effect which is transmitted through a trade matrix even the net oil exporters like indonesia and malaysia cannot escape the negative influence of high oil prices

shocks effects of macroeconomic variables on natural gas consumption in nigeria structural var with sign restrictions abstract this paper has examined the transmission of shocks from macroeconomic variables namely money supply inflation exchange rate and real gdp onto natural gas consumption using structural var svar model with sign restrictions the results revealed that both in the short run and long run natural gas consumption responds significantly to the shocks emanating from money supply and real gdp while its response to inflation shock is significant only in the short run but exchange rate shock is not significant however money supply has contributed greater proportion of the shocks followed by the real gdp inflation and exchange rate in the ordering of the variance decomposition the paper recommends that nigerian authorities adjust the monetary policy tools towards regulating the money supply and checking the inflation rate to ensure increased demand for natural gas and sustained economic growth on the response of natural gas consumption to the shock in the exchange rate since the shock is positive though insignificant it implies that depreciation of the exchange rate can discourage the demand for foreign exchange imports and boost the local production which would reciprocally lead to more natural gas consumption and improved growth in the country

the solar photovoltaic feed in tariff scheme in new south wales australia solar photovoltaic pv electricity systems are part of australia s energy supply matrix in the case of new south wales nsw the state government has had to deal with a complex policy problem in order to play its role in the federal small scale renewable energy scheme the nsw government initiated the 7 year solar bonus scheme in 2010 however in attempting to maximise community investment in small scale solar pv systems it relied on faulty financial modelling that applied a generous feed in tariff fit and underestimated the level of investor participation and installed capacity consequently the scheme has resulted in very high public costs that will require policy changes that bring investors and energy retailers into conflict and unpopular electricity retail price adjustments this paper uses a structured case and stakeholder analysis to critically analyse the fit policy while also highlighting important lessons for policymakers engaging in fit design

shedding light on the shadow economy a nighttime light approach abstractmeasuring the shadow economy is inherently difficult but critical for understanding economic development using census data on formal and informal sectors in cambodia we document that 96 6 per cent of non farm establishments do not formally register with the government and their sales accounted for 76 6 per cent of total sales in 2011 estimating their past sales from changes in nighttime light for 1993 2010 we find that both formal and informal firms increased their estimated sales the share of informal sales increased from 68 8 per cent in 1993 to 76 6 per cent in 2011 suggesting that the informal sector increased quantitatively in both absolute and relative terms over time

public policy influence on renewable energy investments a panel data study across oecd countries this paper examines the impact of public policy measures on renewable energy re investments in electricity generating capacity made by institutional investors using a novel combination of datasets and a longitudinal research design we investigate the influence of different policy measures in a sample of oecd countries to suggest an effective policy mix which could tackle failures in the market for clean energy the results call for technology specific policies which take into account actual market conditions and technology maturity to improve the conditions for institutional investments advisable policy instruments include economic and fiscal incentives such as feed in tariffs fit especially for less mature technologies additionally market based instruments such as greenhouse gas ghg emission trading systems for mature technologies should be included these policy measures directly impact the risk and return structure of re projects supplementing these with regulatory measures such as codes and standards e g rps and long term strategic planning could further strengthen the context for re investments

forecasting in cointegrated systems we consider the implications for forecast accuracy of imposing unit roots and cointegrating restrictions in linear systems of i 1 variables in levels differences and cointegrated combinations asymptotic formulae are obtained for multi step forecast error variances for each representation alternative measures of forecast accuracy are discussed finite sample behaviour in a bivariate model is studied by monte carlo using control variables we also analyse the interaction between unit roots and cointegrating restrictions and intercepts in the dgp some of the issues are illustrated with an empirical example of forecasting the demand for m1 in the uk

in the transformation of energy systems what is holding australia back abstract australia has had a strong gdp growth rate is endowed with a diversity of renewable energy resources yet has been unable to unshackle its dependency on fossil fuels our study identifies causes underlying australia s underachievement in its transformation towards a renewable energy economy we apply a combined mixed methods case study and multi criteria analysis to evaluate the greenhouse gas emissions and energy targets policies and programs of four australian prime ministers between 1996 and 2015 we identify four high impact factors that contribute to australia s underachievement the prime minister s political stance on climate and energy is critical in setting the direction of government the absence of target driven policy frameworks results in less effective policy outcomes orderly and cost effective energy system transformation requires bipartisan strategic long term planning and substantial capital investment to provide policy certainty and stability that can induce new investment in renewable technologies and industries energy policy is primarily a political and ideological issue not one driven by underlying economic conditions going forward australia must achieve a bipartisan position on climate and energy policy at both federal and state levels this will provide long term certainty and stability to support investment in renewable energy and so doing achieve international emission reduction obligations

determinants of renewable energy growth a global sample analysis abstract we investigate factors influencing country level renewable energy growth by applying fevd and pcse estimation methods in a unique sample analysis with a longer time series 1990 2010 and a broader sample size of countries including brazil russia india china and south africa than previous studies our results reveal new insights the results suggest that certain government backed energy policies impede renewable energy investments thus implying significant failures in policy design these policies may be failing mainly because of uncertainty and the likelihood of discontinuity weak voluntary approaches are introduced in order to satisfy public demand for more sustainable investments and programmes we find that these may have negative influences on the growth of renewables as well the insight gained is consistent over the estimation methods employed

climate change policy why has so little been achieved while the scientific evidence for climate change grows the policy responses have so far had little or no impact on the build up of emissions current trends in emissions are adverse the paper considers why the disconnect between science and policy exists and in particular why the kyoto protocol has achieved so little some contributing factors considered are the focus on carbon production rather than consumption in the architecture of kyoto the flaws in the analysis presented in the stern report notably on the impacts of climate change on economic growth on the costs of mitigation and on discounting and the political economy of the choice of policy instruments the politics of the rents that arise and the technology bias the challenges facing the copenhagen conference are noted and it is concluded that with a recasting of the economics of climate change the prospects for closing the gap between the science and policy are grim

assessing forecast performance in a cointegrated system this paper examines the forecast performance of a cointegrated system relative to the forecast performance of a comparable var that fails to recognize that the system is characterized by cointegration the cointegrated system we examine is composed of three vectors a money demand representation a fisher equation and a risk premium captured by an interest rate differential the forecasts produced by the vector error correction model vecm associated with this system are compared with those obtained from a corresponding differenced vector autoregression dvar as well as a vector autoregression based upon the levels of the data lvar forecast evaluation is conducted using both the full system criterion proposed by clements and hendry 1993 and by comparing forecast performance for specific variables overall our findings suggest that selective forecast performance improvement especially at long forecast horizons may be observed by incorporating knowledge of cointegration rank our general conclusion is that when the advantage of incorporating cointegration appears it is generally at longer forecast horizons this is consistent with the predictions of engle and yoo 1987 but we also find consistent with clements and hendry 1995 that relative gain in forecast performance clearly depends upon the chosen data transformation

on defining and measuring the informal sector evidence from brazil summary recent debate on the reasons for the informal sector has led to renewed focus on how to operationalize the measurement of informal employment this paper investigates congruence between three empirical measures of the rate of informality using brazilian household survey data for the period 1992 2004 sixty three percent of the economically active are informal according to at least one definition but only 40 are informal according to all three regression analysis is used to shed further light on differences in these measures appropriate measurement is therefore of high significance to policy analysis and design of appropriate strategies to reduce informality

oil and the macroeconomy when prices go up and down an extension of hamilton s results in an important paper hamilton 1983 demonstrated a strong correlation between oil price changes and gross national product growth in u s data however his study pertained to a period in which all the large oil price movements were upward and thus it left unanswered the question whether the correlation persists in periods of price decline moreover the price variable he used was somewhat distorted by price controls in the 1970s this note investigates whether hamilton s results continue to hold when the sample is extended to include the recent oil market collapse and the oil price variable is corrected for the effects of price controls particular attention is given to the possibility of asymmetric responses to oil price increases and decreases as suggested in the structural employment literature loungani 1986 davis 1987 hamilton 1988 like hamilton i based my investigation on the gnp equation in sims s 1 980b six variable quarterly vector autoregressive model

labor turnover and labor legislation in brazil one of the main characteristics of the brazilian labor market is its impressively high job and worker turnover rates although labor legislation in brazil is very restrictive dismissal costs are not high when compared with other latin american countries moreover many authors argue that the design of some job security programs creates perverse incentives that generate labor turnover the objective of this paper is twofold first we describe brazilian labor legislation with emphasis on job security provisions and their incentives on workers reallocation then after reviewing the most recent evidence on labor turnover in brazil we investigate the effects of changes in job termination costs implemented in the 1988 constitution and in a labor law of september 2001 on employment duration both legislation changes increased firing costs and should have therefore reduced turnover for formal workers affected by them a simple differences in differences methodology is applied to monthly individual data from pesquisa mensal de emprego pme ibge which has information on previous employment spells for those currently unemployed the results establish that both changes reduced turnover for formal workers affected by the legislation a significant increase in average employment duration of affected workers relative to not affected workers was observed after both legislation changes we also provided evidence that the 1988 constitutional change reduced the probability of fake layoffs although there are still a high number of such agreements being made between workers and their employers