underemployment irreversibilities and growth under trade unionism the effects of irreversibility and uncertainty are analyzed in a unionized economy with overlapping generations irreversible decisions about technology and physical and human capital are made under uncertainty and generate underutilization of labor and equipment not only over the convergence path but also at steady state the related inefficiency negatively affects the accumulation process by reducing the per capita capital stock at teady state the effect of union power on capital is ambiguous and depends crucially on the presence of irreversible decisions

capital taxation and accumulation in a life cycle growth model almost all of the serious economic work on savings decisions within the past decade has relied on some variant of the life cycle hypothesis in which savings arise out of individual choices of an optimum lifetime consumption path this paper reexamines the incidence and welfare consequences of capital income taxes within a realistic life cycle model the results suggest that the elimination of capital income taxation would have very substantial economic effects for example a complete shift to consumption taxation might raise steady state output by as much as 18 percent and consumption by 16 percent the long run welfare gain from such a shift would for plausible parameter values exceed 150 billion annually stated somewhat differently shifting to consumption taxation would raise the lifetime utility of the representative consumer by the equivalent of about six years income in the new steady state these estimates dwarf estimates of the static welfare cost of taxation and significantly exceed even extreme previous estimates of the dynamic loss this study departs from earlier analyses of the effects of taxes on capital income in several respects probably the most important difference between this treatment and most preceding ones lies in the assumptions about the interest elasticity of saving it is shown below that the common two period formulation of saving decisions yields quite misleading results a more realistic model of life cycle savings demonstrates that for a wide variety of plausible parameter values savings are very interest elastic this implies that shifting away from capital income taxation would significantly increase capital formation making possible long run increases in consumption many studies of the welfare effects of capital income taxation have ignored the general equilibrium effects of increased capital formation in an economy with life cycle savings there is no presumption that the undistorted growth path corresponds to any sort of social optimum as peter diamond has shown life cycle savings can lead to a steady state capital intensity either greater or less than the golden rule level more generally it is clear that there is no reason to believe that a life cycle economy will maximize any particular intertemporal social welfare function a fundamental tenet of welfare evaluation is that preexisting distortions must be considered in evaluating the consequences of tax changes the results presented in this paper take explicit account of the nonoptimal character of the no tax steady state this explains in large part why such a sizeable welfare effect of capital taxes is found in an economy far from the golden rule level of capital intensity there are substantial gains in steady state consumption achievable through increased capital formation section i of the paper examines the aggregate savings function in a continuous time life cycle framework the second section clarifies the differences between wage and consumption taxes an aggregate production function is added to complete the model in the third section the effects of changes in capital taxes on both steady state incidence and welfare are considered within a general equilibrium framework the final section of the paper discusses some implications of the results and suggests areas which appear to warrant further study assistant professor of economics massachusetts institute of technology and research analyst national bureau of economic research i am grateful to alan auerbach martin feldstein laurence kotlikoff to the participants in the nber workshop on business taxation and to the harvard public finance seminar for useful discussions james poterba and james buchal performed the numerical calculations

dynamic tax incidence and intergenerationally neutral reform the paper proposes a basic definition of intergenerational neutrality in the overlapping generations model when agents have a pure life cycle motive of savings the derivation of intergenerationally neutral tax effects provides a redistribution free benchmark case that isolates the relative price effects of taxes and the deadweight losses associated with them the paper clarifies the intergenerational incidence which has to be determined simultaneously with the substitution effects of taxes on savings a tax reform example demonstrates how taxes with diverging intergenerational incidence may be combined to achieve intergenerational neutrality finally the paper extends the analysis of generational tax incidence to the case of a small open economy

fiscal incidence in an overlapping generations model with a fixed asset abstract we analyze a model of overlapping generations with a fixed factor land malleable capital and labor we consider the dynamic effects of various fiscal policies including taxes on rent wages and creation of public debt on capital accumulation land prices and intergenerational welfare minimal assumptions uniqueness and stability imply that a land tax may initially raise land values but the upper bound is less than one half of the tax revenues assuming homothetic utility the ratio between the long run capital responses to a land tax and to a lump sum transfer of equivalent revenue from the young to the old depends solely on the share of labor

tax policy the interest elasticity of saving and capital accumulation numerical analysis of theoretical models increasing disillusionment with traditional empirical methods is having a major impact on research methodology which is increasingly turning to simulation analysis based on theoretical models and assumed parameter values in research on saving and wealth accumulation there have been several recent studies consisting of simulation of theoretical models based on the life cycle model a particular focus has been tax policy and capital formation which is the area of concentration of this paper the aim is to analyze in a theoretical simulation context the impact on saving and wealth of an increase in the after tax rate of return to saving generated by a cut in the tax rate on income from capital this paper suggests that such simulation analysis while instructive as to the behavior of the class of models examined and as to the critical channels of influence does not yield a theoretical presumption in favor of cutting taxes on income from capital as a means of stimulating capital formation the development of this literature derives in part from disillusionment with traditional empirical methods many such papers begin by listing a litany of the problems involved in the usual type of empirical analysis before proceeding to simulation of theoretical structures the implicit conclusion at times appears to be that because of the daunting problems of standard empirical methodology the results derived from it can be ignored and that empirical magnitudes can perhaps be discovered by deductive means the temptation to think of the precise numerical results derived from theoretical simulation as empirical can be rather strong it needs to be reemphasized that empirical magnitudes can only be determined by empirical studies in section i the theoretical structure of a zero bequest life cycle model2 is outlined and several numerical simulations of this model are presented these simulations highlight interesting and nontrivial interactions of theoretical parameters and also demonstrate the difficulty involved in attempts to develop robust aggregate implications from such a framework for instance it is argued that summers claim to have developed a prima facie theoretical case for a high interest elasticity of savings 1981a p 537 does not stand up to sensitivity analysis a small change in the assumed rate of pure time preference or in other parametric assumptions generate otherwise plausible cases in which the interest elasticity of aggregate saving is low the experiments conducted in section i are partial equilibrium in the sense that the interest rate is changed exogenously which changes savings and hence the capital stock but the feedback effect of the capital international monetary fund this paper derives from chs 2 and 3 of my doctoral dissertation completed during a research fellowship at the brookings institution financial support was received from brookings and the social science research council i am grateful to henry aaron barry bosworth maxim engers irwin friend laurence kotlikoff franco modigliani joseph pechman duncan ripley robert shiller patricia stack and my supervisor albert ando for comments and guidance on earlier drafts none of the above institutions or individuals is responsible for the views expressed or any remaining errors for example see james tobin and walter dolde betsy white lawrence summers 1978 1981a b g moore alan auerbach and laurence kotlikoff and auerbach kotlikoff and j skinner 2it is popular to establish a sharp dichotomy between life cycle models and bequest models this taxonomy ignores the frequent references to the potential significance of bequests in the writings of the originators of the life cycle hypothesis a distinction between zero bequest life cycle models and life cycle models incorporating bequests is more accurate in terms of doctrinal history see for example albert ando and franco modigliani and modigliani and richard brumberg

testing the endogenous growth model public expenditure taxation and growth over the long run endogenous growth models such as barro 1990 predict that government expenditure and taxation will have both temporary and permanent effects on growth we test this prediction using panels of annual and period averaged data for oecd countries during 1970 95 isolating long run from short run fiscal effects our results strongly support the endogenous growth model and suggest that long run fiscal effects are not fully captured by period averaging and static panel methods unlike previous investigations our estimates are free from biases associated with incomplete specification of the government budget constraint and do not appear to result from endogeneity of fiscal or investment variables jel classification h30 o40 validation du modele de croissance endogene depenses publiques fiscalite et croissance a long terme des modeles de croissance endogene comme celui de barro 1990 predisent que depenses gouvernementales et fiscalite vont avoir des effets temporaires et permanents sur la croissance on met cette prevision au test a l aide de donnees annuelles et pour certaines moyennes couvrant des sous periodes pour les pays de l ocde 1970 95 dans le but de departager les effets a court et a long terme les resultats valident fortement le modele de croissance endogene et suggerent que les effets fiscaux a long terme ne sont pas pleinement captures par des methodes utilisant des moyennes ou des methodes statiques contrairement aux resultats d enquetes anterieures les resultats proposes ne souffrent pas de distorsions attribuables a une specification incomplete de la contrainte budgetaire du gouvernement et ne semblent pas etre l effet d echo de l endogeneite des variables fiscales et de l investissement

wage setting institutions and economic growth abstract wage setting institutions in several asian and latin american economies are compared and contrasted the asian economies have relied more on market wage determination whereas the latin american economies have encouraged institutions which push wages in key sectors up above market clearing levels market wage determination combined with exportled growth has resulted in rapidly rising real wages in the context of full employment in the asian

market oriented institutions and policies and economic growth a critical survey this paper surveys recent evidence suggesting that market oriented institutions and policies are strongly related to economic growth focusing on studies using the economic freedom ef indicator of the fraser institute this index is critically discussed also various serious shortcomings of empirical studies using this index are identified nevertheless there are strong indications that liberalization i e an increase in the ef index stimulates economic growth this paper also reviews studies on the determinants of ef political liberalization is often found to enhance economic liberalization whereas there is less evidence for causality running in the other direction

the incidence of a tax on pure rent the old reason for the old answer the purpose of this note is to clarify the formal identities linking the problems analyzed by barro 1974 feldstein 1977 and calvo kotlikoff and rodriguez 1979 henceforth ckr and to reaffirm the traditional proposition that in both the short run and the long run a tax on pure rent is never shifted provided one adopts the traditional procedure in tax theory of analyzing the incidence of a compensated tax any uncompensated tax is equivalent to a compensated tax together with a lump sum redistribution of income and there is really nothing surprising about the fact that lump sum redistributions of income may alter relative prices as the literature on the transfer problem in international trade theory demonstrates actually situations can be found e g gorman 1953 barro 1974 calvo et al 1979 p 874 n 7 in which lump sum redistributions of income do not affect relative prices even when they do the incidence effect is often small relative to the size of the redistribution the analyses of ckr and feldstein give the impression that the classical proposition on the incidence of a tax on pure rent does not apply in a dynamic economy as feldstein points out the classical proposition that a tax on pure rent is unshifted requires that the supplies of nonland factors of production are unaltered by the introduction of the tax on land rents this static assumption of fixed factor supplies is inappropriate to the analysis of tax incidence in a dynamic economy in which the supply of capital reflects the economic choice between consumption and saving calvo et al 1979 p 869

are the penn world tables data on government consumption and investment being misused abstract this paper argues that it is inappropriate to measure g y and i y using penn world tables data the empirical results of barro and lee carnegie rochester conference series on public policy 40 1994 1 46 are sensitive to whether g y and i y are measured in local or international prices

a monopoly union model of wage determination with capital and taxes an empirical application to the finnish manufacturing abstract the paper formulates a model of wage determination in which the firm decides on employment after a monopoly union has determined wages the novelty is to incorporate into the model investment and capital decisions by firms the subgame perfect nash equilibrium and its comparative statics for wages capital stock and employment are characterized in a two stage game the model is then estimated by using annual data from the finnish manufacturing sector over the period 1960 1987 the dynamic system of equations describing the determination of capital stock wages and hours of work performs reasonably well there are no obvious signs of misspecifications coefficient estimates are relatively precise and other properties of the models predominantly lie in conformity with our theoretical reasoning the nash equilibrium with dynamics for nominal wages and capital stock encompasses more conventional specifications which can be derived from the neoclassical theory of investment and demand supply theory of labour markets finally diagnostics and various non nested test procedures indicate that the conditional hours of work specification where hours of work are determined recursively after the wage capital stock game outperforms alternative specifications implied by the conventional theory of the demand for factors of production

the incidence of a tax on pure rent in a small open economy this paper analyzes the effects of a land rent tax on capital formation and foreign investment in a life cycle small open economy with endogenous labor leisure choices the consequences of land taxation critically depend on how the tax proceeds are used by the government a land tax depresses capital formation crowds out foreign investment and increases national wealth and consumption when the land tax revenues are distributed as lump sum payments if the proceeds from land taxation are used to finance unproductive government expenditure the land tax will be neutral in its effects on the capital stock nonhuman wealth and labor when the tax revenues are used to reduce labor taxes the land rent tax spurs nonhuman wealth accumulation and ambiguously affects the capital stock and labor

foreign owned land while foreign investment augments the capital stock it also affects land prices if it causes land values to rise then the resulting capital gain benefits current landowners but the perma nent effect can be to reduce welfare other things equal more crowde d countries have higher land prices and lower steady state welfare b ut their net foreign indebtedness depends on technology savings beha vior and the interest rate even when it does not affect the domesti c capital stock a land tax raises steady state welfare copyright 1988 by american economic association

inflation and capital accumulation under a finite horizon abstract the effect of inflation on demand for capital and the aggregate capital labor ratio is investigated in a finite horizon utility maximization model it is shown that deriving saving and asset choice decisions from utility maximization does not in itself lead to superneutrality independence of steady state capital labor ratio from the rate of monetary growth as in the work of sidrauski and that a finite horizon is crucial in explaining this difference it is further shown that it is possible under very general conditions to show that increases in the rate of inflation will increase the aggregate capital labor ratio allowing us to extend the mundell tobin effect to a wider class of models

should land and capital be taxed at a uniform rate if jurisdictions are allowed to tax land and capital separately they tax only land because capital taxation distorts the allocation of mobile capital to exploit absentee owners however jurisdictions tax land beyond the efficient level as absentee ownership increases throughout the economy land taxation results in greater inefficiency to alleviate the inefficiency of overtaxing land the higher level government intervenes to require jurisdictions to tax both capital and land at a uniform rate because the desire to attract capital lowers the tax rate uniform taxation of land and capital or property taxation thus may be more efficient than separate taxation jel classification h21 h71 est ce que la terre et le capital devraient etre taxes d une maniere uniforme si on permettait aux diverses juridictions de taxer capital et terre separement elles taxeraient seulement la terre parce que la fiscalite imposee au capital cree des distorsions dans l allocation du capital mobile mais pour exploiter les proprietaires absents les diverses juridictions imposent un fardeau fiscal sur la terre qui va au dela de ce que l efficacite commande a proportion que la propriete absente se developpe dans l economie la fiscalite imposee a la terre devient source de plus en plus grande inefficacite pour reduire cette inefficacite attribuable a la sur taxation de la terre le niveau senior de gouvernement intervient pour forcer les juridictions juniors a taxer capital et terre au meme taux parce que le desir d attirer le capital reduit le taux de taxation il se peut donc que la taxation uniforme de la terre et du capital ou de la taxation sur la propriete soit plus efficace que des taux d imposition differents

economic freedom culture and growth how do economic freedom and culture impact economic growth this paper argues that culture as measured by the world values surveys and economic institutions associated with economic freedom are both independently important for economic prosperity but the strength of their impact can be better understood only when both are included in the growth regression our results indicate that economic freedom is more important than culture for growth outcomes suggesting substitutability between the two we posit that culture is important for growth when economic freedom is absent diminishing in significance once economic freedom is established

taxation of economic rents economic rents have long been identified as an efficient tax base in addition the recent literature documents that rent income is highly concentrated and that rents are quickly increasing rent taxation thus seems attractive for reasons of both efficiency and equity nevertheless rent taxation remains a marginal topic in research and policy making in a systematic review of the neoclassical literature on different rent types we find that some types of rents reflect inefficiencies and should thus be minimized while others reward investments and should be supported in line with social welfare what remains for taxation are land rents one of the few true scarcity rents land rents have significant potential to improve the efficiency of the tax system we then begin to develop a comprehensive theory of land rent taxation by identifying relevant efficiency and equity effects the interaction of many of these effects remains unexplored which might explain policymakers hesitation in using land taxes to date

distortions interventions and productivity growth is east asia different but some of the successes have been spectacular the east asian economies as a group consistently outperformed other developing regions over the past 3 decades and policymakers everywhere are asking why in particular economies such as japan korea and taiwan progressed remarkably well under fairly interventionist policies and now china is registering the most rapid and sustained growth for any large country in the world with only gradual market reforms researchers have attributed east asia s performance to various factors some of them contradictory market orientation is responsible argue some government interventions argue others the crucial questions are were government policies for growth very different in east asia than in other regions and were the effects of government policies very different in east asia this article addresses these questions by distinguishing between government interventions and distortions and investigating their association with productivity growth in east asia as compared with other developing countries the study differs from other empirical investigations of growth in three aspects 1 it assesses the role of government in east asia where interventions are widespread and pervasive 2 it distinguishes interventions or government actions from distortions some of which are results of government actions and 3 it uses new composite measures of government policies as a sensitivity check of results derived from panel data analyses that use individual policies including our own earlier work 2 we focus on east asia because no other single geographical region of the world has a group of economies that outperformed others so consistently both in the 1960s 70s and in the 1980s 90s a few econo

institutions investment and growth new cross country and panel data evidence this paper outlines the alternative channels through which institutions affect growth and studies the empirical relationship between institutions investment and growth the empirical results indicate that i free market institutions have a positive effect on growth ii economic freedom affects growth through both a direct effect on total factor productivity and an indirect effect on investment iii political and civil liberties may stimulate investment iv an important interaction exists between freedom and human capital investment v milton friedman s conjectures on the relation between political and economic freedom are correct vi promoting economic freedom is an effective policy toward facilitating growth and other types of freedom jel o17 o40 p51

capital income taxation in a two commodity life cycle model the role of factor intensity and asset capitalization effects this paper discusses the impact of changes in capital income taxation in a two commodity life cycle general equilibrium growth model in contrast to the solow swan one commodity framework which has been used in previous life cycle policy simulation summers 1981 auerbach et al 1983 auerbath and kotlikoff 1983 1987 we use a two commodity uzawa 1961 1963 type model consumption and capital goods are separately identitied with an endogenously determined relative price between them as a result both asset capitalization effects changes in the relative price of capital and consumption goods and factor intensity effects across sectors are captured calculations with the model suggest that both of these effects

national policies and the sectoral pattern of economic growth this article presents tests of whether the kinds of national policy variables used to explain cross country variation in the growth of aggregate gdp per capita can also successfully explain per capita growth in the agricultural and nonagricultural sectors of developing countries there are four main results of interest first relative to nonagriculture convergence is much slower in agriculture and the burden of population growth is generally much higher second while orthodox economic policies share positive associations with economic growth in the nonagricultural sectors of developing countries such policies fail to robustly predict variation in agricultural growth third size of government indicators often yield an unexpected positive association with agricultural growth and finally although there is some evidence that fewer price controls are associated with faster agricultural growth these associations are statistically quite weak and quantitatively quite small

does the composition of wage and payroll taxes matter under nash bargaining abstract using the nash bargaining approach to wage negotiations this paper shows that conventional wisdom according to which the total tax wedge is the sum of wage and payroll taxes is valid for equal tax bases e g when the tax exemption takes the form of a tax credit however the equivalence result ceases to hold when the tax bases are unequal due to tax allowances in this case a revenue neutral restructuring of labour taxes towards a narrower tax base decreases the gross wage and is thus good for employment

government size and economic growth a new framework and some evidence from cross section and time series data a study of the impact of government size on economic performance and growth is important theoretically one point of view suggests that a larger government size is likely to be detrimental to efficiency and economic growth because for example i government operations are often conducted inefficiently ii the regulatory process imposes excessive burdens and costs on the economic system and iii many of government s fiscal and monetary policies tend to distort economic incentives and lower the productivity of the system at the other extreme one can identify some points of view that assign to the government a critical role in the process of economic development and could argue that a larger government size is likely to be a more powerful engine of economic development there are several arguments on which the latter point of view is based these include besides others i role of the government in harmonizing conflicts between private and social interests ii prevention of exploitation of the country by foreigners and iii securing an increase in productive investment and providing a socially optimal direction for growth and development

government intervention and firm investment evidence from international micro data abstract building on the important study by beck et al 2005 we examine how government intervention in firms decision making is related to their investment and sales growth using the unique world bank dataset wbes covering 6500 firms in 70 countries we find strong evidence that the extent of government intervention in firms investment employment sales pricing dividend and merger and acquisition decisions is negatively related to their investment and sales growth with the effect being more profound in foreign owned firms and less significant in state owned firms the empirical results are robust to a series of robustness tests and instrumental variable regressions

endogenous fertility ricardian equivalence and debt management policy abstract the paper develops a model in which dynastic families optimally determine fertility government debt represents a tax on future generations and on childbearing the ricardian equivalence hypothesis does not hold debt is welfare reducing in that it distorts the fertility decision an increase in government debt induces a decline in fertility and an increase in the steady state capital labor ratio if a government inherits an existing stock of debt the first best policy is to eliminate the debt immediately in other situations the optimal debt management policy will not in general entail a total elimination of the debt

dynamic asset pricing effects and incidence of realization based capital gains taxes abstract many analyses of capital gains taxation assume that realization based taxes are economically similar to accrual based taxes in equilibrium however the distinctive implications of realization taxes for asset trading through the lock in effect are associated with distinctive dynamic asset pricing effects asset prices are increased by the current realization tax to partly offset the sale disincentive that the tax would otherwise impose the resulting division of the tax burden between buyers and sellers of assets is similar to traditional public finance models of excise tax incidence in product markets

if agricultural land taxation is so efficient why is it so rarely used the land tax enjoys a distinguished pedigree in the theoretical literature on tax efficiency yet it is rarely used as a serious revenue source in rural areas of developing countries this article considers three drawbacks of the land tax relative to taxes on exports or marketed output 1 capitalization effects of the land tax impose a large burden on the current generation 2 land taxation increases the riskiness of net farmer income and 3 administration of the land tax entails costly informational requirements this article demonstrates that only the second and third drawbacks are valid economic arguments against the land tax simulations based on an economic model of farm behavior suggest that farmers may still prefer a land tax to an export tax despite the increased uncertainty of their after tax income administrative costs are therefore the best explanation of the weak link between the theoretical and practical aspects of land taxation

a simple time series test of endogenous vs exogenous growth models an application to the united states this paper presents evidence supporting endogenous growth models that emphasize public structural capital the authors apply a simple test of endogenous vs exogenous growth models in exogenous growth economies temporary innovations to policy variables lead only to temporary changes in gnp levels while in endogenous growth economies the innovations can lead to permanent changes in gnp levels of the seven u s policy variables they examine only non military equipment capital and non military structural capital have a statistically and economically significant effect upon long run gnp levels further estimation suggests that the non military equipment capital result is not robust and that several disaggregate components of structural capital contribute significantly copyright 1996 by mit press

economic effects of land taxes in an inflationary economy abstract we investigate the incidence of land taxes using a monetary overlapping generations model the real price of land may be raised with a land tax even when the elasticity of saving with respect to the interest rate is positive we may have the crowding out case which is induced by the substitution from capital and land to money the capital loss suffered by older generations holding land during the transition to a land tax may be partially offset by a gain in money balances as inflation abates

wage setting and the tax system theory and evidence for the united kingdom abstract this paper analyses the effects of a non linear tax system on wage bargaining the main conclusions are an increase in the marginal income or payroll tax rate reduces the pre tax wage in the isoelastic case an increase in the average tax rate increases the pre tax wage by more than the tax increase and a measure of the progressivity of the tax system residual income progression is a sufficient measure of the effect of the tax system on wage pressure empirical evidence is presented to support these propositions and the predictions of the model regarding the effect of recent changes to the u k tax system on the distribution of earnings discussed

the dynamic efficiency cost of not taxing housing traditional welfare cost estimates of tax subsidies for owner occupied housing are less than 0 5 of gnp in the united states and canada this paper argues that these static measures understate the true cost of the tax subsidy increasing the capital income tax makes untaxed housing more valuable delivering a windfall bonus to existing homeowners at the expense of future generations this intergenerational transfer has real efficiency effects in the presence of pre existing tax distortions when housing is in fixed supply the dynamic efficiency cost of preferential tax treatment for housing is as much as 2 2 of gnp or 120 billion dollars in 1990

redistributive taxation in a simple life cycle model an overlapping generations model with rich and poor life cycle planners is developed positive aspects of redistributive capital and labor taxation are then analyzed the conditions required for feldstein s result that the long run capital labor ratio is invariant to wage taxations are discussed the utility frontier is shown to generally have a slope with an absolute value different from one in the neighborhood of a no tax equilibrium labor income is clearly a more efficient base for long run redistribution only if the economy is dynamically inefficient and the rich household benefits from an increase in the gross interest rate even in this case the labor income base may not be considered more desirable when transitional effects are considered copyright 1989 by the london school of economics and political science