order flow transaction clock and normality of asset returns the goal of this paper is to show that normality of asset returns can be recovered through a stochastic time change clark 1973 addressed this issue by representing the price process as a subordinated process with volume as the lognormally distributed subordinator we extend clark s results and find the following i stochastic time changes are mathematically much less constraining than subordinators ii the cumulative number of trades is a better stochastic clock than the volume for generating virtually perfect normality in returns iii this clock can be modeled nonparametrically allowing both the time change and price processes to take the form of jump diffusions the relations among trading volume stock prices and price volatility the subject of empirical and theoretical studies over many years have lately received renewed attention with the increased availability of high frequency data a vast amount of research has focused on issues such as news arrivals volume and price changes or volatility moves usually outside any framework of general or even partial equilibrium is the normality of returns a key issue for example in the mean variance paradigm for portfolio choice or the recent study of the problems of risk management e g in value at risk verified at any time horizon the evidence accumulated from a number of studies that document the presence of leptokurtosis and skewness in the distribution of returns of a wide variety of financial assets suggests that the answer is no studies as early as for example fama 1965 showed that daily returns are more long tailed than the normal density with the distribution of returns approaching normality as the holding period is extended to one month in the same manner volatility smiles and other observed

behavioural development economics lessons from field labs in the developing world abstract explanations of poverty growth and development depend on the assumptions made about individual preferences and the willingness to engage in strategic behaviour economic experiments especially those conducted in the field have begun to paint a picture of economic agents in developing communities that is at variance with the traditional portrait we review this growing literature with an eye towards preference related experiments conducted in the field we also offer lessons on what development economists might learn from experiments we conclude by sharing our thoughts on how to conduct experiments in the field and then offer a few ideas for future research

how to identify trust and reciprocity this paper uses a three games or triadic design to identify trusting and reciprocating behavior a large literature on single game trust and reciprocity experiments is based on the implicit assumption that subjects do not have altruistic or inequality averse other regarding preferences such experimental designs test compound hypotheses that include the hypothesis that other regarding preferences do not affect behavior in contrast experiments with the triadic design do discriminate between transfers resulting from trust or reciprocity and transfers resulting from other regarding preferences that are not conditional on the behavior of others decomposing trust from altruism and reciprocity from altruism or inequality aversion is critical to obtaining empirical information that can guide the process of constructing models that can increase the empirical validity of game theory

the impact of group membership on cooperation and norm enforcement evidence using random assignment to real social groups due to incomplete contracts efficiency of an organization depends on willingness of individuals to take non selfish actions such as cooperating when there is no incentive to do so or punishing inefficient actions by others organizations also constitute a social boundary or group we investigate whether this social aspect of organizations has an important benefit fostering unselfish cooperation and norm enforcement within the group but also whether there is a dark side in the form of hostility between groups our experiment provides the first evidence free from the confounding effect of self selection into groups individuals are randomly assigned to different platoons during a four week period of officer training in the swiss army we conduct choice experiments simultaneous prisoner s dilemma games with and without third party punishment in week three random assignment significantly increases willingness to cooperate with fellow platoon members assignment does not lead to hostility in the sense of vindictive punishment of outsiders but does affect norm enforcement enhancing willingness to enforce a norm of cooperation towards fellow platoon members this suggests that the social aspect of organizations motivates efficient behavior even when ordinary incentives fail and helps to explain practices designed to foster social ties or group identification within an organization this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

economic vs non material incentives for participation in an in kind payments for ecosystem services program in bolivia abstract this study examines the motivations that drive participation in a compensation program for environmental conservation in bolivia previous research on payments programs suggests that institutions that appeal to both economic and non material incentives should be encouraged this program attempts such a strategy offering in kind compensation for conservation while simultaneously attempting to engage with environmental values and traditional social norms i take advantage of a comprehensive household survey conducted prior to the offer of the program and employ means comparison tests and multi level regression analysis to compare those who chose to participate with those who did not my research examines whether motivations for participating in this program reflected purely financial calculations regarding the costs and benefits of the program or whether non financial motivations such as environmental or social beliefs and norms played a role as well i find evidence that the program s effort to engage with social motivations was successful and that social factors not financial incentives alone affect participation in the program findings also suggest that environmental values did not play a very large role and that the financial determinants of participation are related mainly to prohibitive costs or barriers to entry rather than the size of anticipated benefits

models of currency crises with self fulfilling features the discomfort a government suffers from speculation against its currency determines the strategic incentives of speculators and the scope for multiple currency market equilibria after describing an illustrative model in which high unemployment may cause an exchange rate crisis with self fulfilling features the paper reviews some other self reinforcing mechanisms recent econometric evidence seems consistent with the practical importance of these mechanisms

designing payments for environmental services in theory and practice an overview of the issues abstract payments for environmental services pes have attracted increasing interest as a mechanism to translate external non market values of the environment into real financial incentives for local actors to provide environmental services es in this introductory paper we set the stage for the rest of this special issue of ecological economics by reviewing the main issues arising in pes design and implementation and discussing these in the light of environmental economics we start with a discussion of pes definition and scope we proceed to review some of the principal dimensions and design characteristics of pes programs and then analyze how pes compares to alternative policy instruments finally we examine in detail two important aspects of pes programs their effectiveness and their distributional implications pes is not a silver bullet that can be used to address any environmental problem but a tool tailored to address a specific set of problems those in which ecosystems are mismanaged because many of their benefits are externalities from the perspective of ecosystem managers pes is based on the beneficiary pays rather than the polluter pays principle and as such is attractive in settings where es providers are poor marginalized landholders or powerful groups of actors an important distinction within pes is between user financed pes in which the buyers are the users of the es and government financed pes in which the buyers are others typically the government acting on behalf of es users in practice pes programs differ in the type and scale of es demand the payment source the type of activity paid for the performance measure used as well as the payment mode and amount the effectiveness and efficiency of pes depends crucially on program design

is there reciprocity in a reciprocal exchange economy evidence of gendered norms from a slum in nairobi kenya norms of reciprocity help enforce cooperative agreements in bilateral sequential exchange we examine the norms that apply in a reciprocal exchange economy in our one shot investment game in a nairobi slum people adhered to the norm of balanced reciprocity which obligates quid pro quo returns for any level of trust the norm is gendered with people more likely to comply when confronted with women rather than men and differs from conditional reciprocity prevalent in developed countries according to which greater trust is rewarded with proportionally larger returns balanced reciprocity produces less trust and trustworthiness and smaller gains from trade than conditional reciprocity jel c72 c91

payments for environmental services as an alternative to logging under weak property rights the case of indonesia decentralization reforms in indonesia have led to local communities negotiating logging agreements with timber companies for relatively low financial payoffs and at high environmental cost this paper analyzes the potential of payments for environmental services pes to provide an alternative to logging for these communities and to induce forest conservation we apply a game theoretical model of community firm interactions that explicitly considers two stylized conditions present in the indonesian context i community rights to the forest remain weak even after decentralization and ii the presence of logging companies interested in the commercial exploitation of the forest intuition may suggest that pes design should focus on those communities with the lowest expected payments from logging deals however we show that these communities may not be able to enforce a pes agreement i e they may not be able to prevent logging activities by timber companies moreover some communities would conserve the forest anyway in these cases pes would not lead to additional environmental gains most important the introduction of pes may increase a community s expected payoff from a logging agreement a failure to consider this endogeneity in expected payoffs could lead to communities opting for logging agreements despite pes simply allowing communities to negotiate better logging deals our results indicate that pes design is a complex task and that the costs of an effective pes system could potentially be much higher than expected from observing current logging fees using data collected in indonesia on actual logging fees received by communities we illustrate how the theoretical results could be used in empirical analysis to guide pes design our results are likely to be useful in other cases where local people make resource use decisions but have weak property rights over these resources and where external commercial forces are present the results highlight the importance of understanding the details of the local context in order to design pes programs appropriately

the determinants of asymmetric volatility volatility in equity markets is asymmetric contemporaneous return and conditional return volatility are negatively correlated in this article i develop an asymmetric volatility model where dividend growth and dividend volatility are the two state variables of the economy the model allows both the leverage effect and the volatility feedback effect the two popular explanations of asymmetry the model is estimated by the simulated method of moments i find that both the leverage effect and volatility feedback are important determinants of asymmetric volatility and volatility feedback is significant both statistically and economically the relationship between stock price and its volatility has long interested financial researchers empirically returns and conditional variance of next period s returns are negatively correlated that is negative positive returns are generally associated with upward downward revisions of the conditional volatility this empirical phenomenon is often referred to as asymmetric volatility in the literature see engle and ng 1993 zakoian 1994 and wu and xiao 1999 the presence of asymmetric volatility is most apparent during stock market crashes when a large decline in stock price is associated with a significant increase in market volatility formal econometric models have been developed by researchers to capture asymmetric volatility for example asymmetric arch models of nelson 1991 and glosten jagannathan and runkle 1993 have been found to significantly outperform their counterparts that do not accommodate the asymmetry moreover continuous time stochastic volatility models generally produce estimates of a negative correlation between return and return volatility bakshi cao and chen 1997 and bates 1997 for a review of the literature on asymmetric volatility see bekaert

trust and cooperation social capital and community resource management social capital is one of the main determinants of community resource management success we use the average amount sent in a trust game as a measure of social capital in five rural villages in india combining these experimental data with household surveys we analyze i how the amount sent is correlated with socio cultural community characteristics ii how social capital affects community resource management and iii to what extent experimental play is consistent with real on farm behavior in terms of providing a semi public good the results are interesting from a policy perspective and provide insight into bridging the gap between lab experiments and the field

financial crises and balance of payments crises a simple model of the southern cone experience abstract this paper starts from a simple model of the domestic banking sector and develops the potentially destabilizing macroeconomic consequences of its role in intermediating foreign capital inflows both financial and balance of payments crises may result reminiscent of the southern cone experience

good bye financial repression hello financial crash some unintended consequences of financial liberalization in latin america are analyzed in this paper intrinsic imperfectious in financial markets and the policy dilemmas they pose are reviewed first the stylized facts of southern cone experiments in financial liberization are then presented alternative ways of organlzing domestic capital markets under latin american conditions are discussed and an eclectic reform mongering program is proposed

central bank reactions to banking crises in fixed exchange rate regimes abstract until recently speculative attacks and banking crises have been largely treated as separate phenomena however the recent experiences of several southern cone countries indicates that banking difficulties can lead to a currency crises if in combatting them the central bank adopts policies which are inconsistent with the fixed exchange rate regime the paper illustrates how this can be the case and discusses what are the policy responses available to central banks that face banking crises in fixed exchange rate regimes

continuous time models realized volatilities and testable distributional implications for daily stock returns we provide an empirical framework for assessing the distributional properties of daily speculative returns within the context of the continuous time jump diffusion models traditionally used in asset pricing finance our approach builds directly on recently developed realized variation measures and non parametric jump detection statistics constructed from high frequency intra day data a sequence of simple to implement moment based tests involving various transformations of the daily returns speak directly to the importance of different distributional features and may serve as useful diagnostic tools in the specification of empirically more realistic continuous time asset pricing models on applying the tests to the 30 individual stocks in the dow jones industrial average index we find that it is important to allow for both time varying diffusive volatility jumps and leverage effects to satisfactorily describe the daily stock price dynamics copyright 2009 john wiley sons ltd

interest rates and bank risk taking abstract a recent line of research views the low interest rate environment of the early to mid 2000s as an element that triggered increased risk taking appetite of banks in search for yield this paper uses approximately 18000 annual observations on euro area banks over the period 2001 2008 and presents strong empirical evidence that low interest rates indeed increase bank risk taking substantially this result is robust across a number of different specifications that account inter alia for the potential endogeneity of interest rates and or the dynamics of bank risk notably among the banks of the large euro area countries this effect is less pronounced for french institutions which held on average a relatively low level of risk assets finally the distributional effects of interest rates on bank risk taking due to individual bank characteristics reveal that the impact of interest rates on risk assets is diminished for banks with higher equity capital and is amplified for banks with higher off balance sheet items

testing the continuous semimartingale hypothesis for the s p 500 large amounts of intraday data of the s p 500 stock index futures are used to test the hypothesis that the log return process corrected for drift is a continuous martingale we use the time change for martingales theorem to rephrase the hypothesis and test whether the return process corrected for drift is a time changed brownian motion this hypothesis cannot be rejected

the fine structure of asset returns an empirical investigation we investigate the importance of diffusion and jumps in a new model for asset returns in contrast to standard models we allow for jump components displaying finite or infinite activity and variation empirical investigations of time series indicate that index dynamics are devoid of a diffusion component which may be present in the dynamics of individual stocks this leads to the conjecture confirmed on options data that the risk neutral process should be free of a diffusion component we conclude that the statistical and risk neutral processes for equity prices are pure jump processes of infinite activity and finite variation

regional non adjustment and fiscal policy asymmetric shocks regional non adjustment and fiscal policy how will countries handle idiosyncratic macroeconomic shocks under the single currency since the regional adjustment patterns currently prevailing within european currency unions are likely to prevail at the national level under the single currency looking at the ways in which european countries react to internally asymmetric shocks today provides a good preview for the answer to that question in this paper we compare the usa with germany italy and the uk and with canada which is closer to europe than the usa in its labour market and fiscal institutions europe s and to some extent canada s model of regional response differs from that of the usa changes in regional real exchange rates are small in all countries outside of the usa however there is more reliance on interregional transfer payments less on labour migration and the pace of regional adjustment appears to be slower if emu aims at the same degree of economic and social cohesion that its constituent nations enjoy today this suggests that its members may find it hard to resist the eventual extension of existing eu mechanisms of income redistribution a transfer union we propose an alternative strategy based on a relaxed stability pact further strictures against central eu borrowing labour market and fiscal reform and the issuance by individual member states of debt indexed to nominal gdp maurice obstfeld and giovanni peri

upstream downstream transactions and watershed externalities experimental evidence from kenya abstract where environmental policies or projects seek behavioral change understanding underlying norms and preferences is essential to securing environmental outcomes this study models a payment for environmental services intervention in an experimental field laboratory in nyanza province kenya upstream and downstream individuals are paired in a standard investment game in which the upstream mover s investment represents land use decisions and the downstream mover responds with a choice of compensation payment the experimental intervention introduces an enforcement treatment on the downstream movers compensation decisions for a single round underlying social preferences and identity appear to shape individual transactions between upstream and downstream individuals upstream first movers are sensitive to the removal of the enforcement on their downstream partners in the second round and make decisions consistent with crowding out of social preferences the results suggest that environmental interventions may affect resource decisions for individuals who are not themselves direct targets of enforcement

socio ecological explanations for crowding out effects from economic field experiments in southern africa abstract economic and psychological literature mentions three conditions under which the crowding out effect of pro social behaviour is likely to occur and to crowd out citizens moral obligations to behave co operatively i use a framed field experiment on joint extraction from a common pool resource cpr where the crowding out effect has already been reported before in combination with the trust game carried out in farming communities of namibia and south africa to replicate these conditions the research design and the cross cultural setting enable to explicitly control for these effects the results of the experiments support that the crowding out effect depends on the nature of the external intervention controlling vs supportive external intervention the degree of participants self determination high vs low self determination in the group a society s norms of trust and reciprocity high vs low trust within the society the results imply that outside regulations aiming to conserve natural resources risk worsening the situation when neglecting democratic legitimization as well as local community norms

risk inflation and the stock market most explanations for the decline in share values over the past two decades have focused on the concurrent increase in inflation this paper considers an alternative explanation a substantial increase in the riskiness of capital investments we show that the variance of firms real gross marginal return on capital has increased significantly increasing the relative riskiness of investors returns on equity and that this can explain a large part of the market decline we also assess the effects of increase in the mean and variance of the inflation rate and a decline in firms expected return on capital this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

repetition and reputation implications for trust and trustworthiness when institutions change institutions change in iraq the formerly communist countries and many private and public organizations but do people adapt to the new institutional environment and if so how quickly this paper examines institutional change how long it takes people to transition from one institutional environment to another or put differently whether old institutional regimes have an afterglow more specifically we study whether trust and trustworthiness can be fostered by first exposing people to an environment conducive to trust we are interested in whether intrinsic trust and trustworthiness can be induced in the long run by providing extrinsic incentives for trust and trustworthiness in the short run reputation systems may provide incentives for trustworthiness and trust direct reputationbuilding may occur in repeated games where pairs of subjects play the same stage game repeatedly but repeat transactions are not necessarily the rule in today s global economy in population games where agents are randomly re matched in every period indirect reputation systems are a potential substitute for personal interactions provided information about others past behavior is available on ebay for example buyers are willing to pay a premium of 8 1 percent of the selling price to a seller with an established good reputation paul resnick et al 2003 this paper examines experimentally to what degree indirect reputation building substitutes for direct reputation building in repeat interactions in the short run and analyzes the effects these environments have on behavior in the long run in contrast most earlier experimental studies focus on one shot and repeat interactions in the short run we compare the effects of direct and indirect reputation building in a binary choice trust game where a buyer the trustor can either interact with the seller the trustee or exit the trustee can either honor or exploit trust the payoffs are such that a money maximizing trustee prefers exploiting to honoring trust in a one shot game while a money maximizing trustor prefers not offering trust to being exploited the unique nash equilibrium of the single shot game predicts no trade figure 1 presents the game we implemented with the actual payoffs in cents used in our experiment subjects participate in the trust game in two blocks of 10 rounds each which is common knowledge in phase 1 the first 10 rounds they are confronted either with a standard one shot random matching treatment stranger or s a fixed pairs finitely repeated game treatment partner or p or bohnet kennedy school of government harvard university 79 jfk street cambridge ma 02139 e mail iris bohnet harvard edu huck department of economics and else university college london gower street london wc1e 6bt united kingdom e mail s huck ucl ac uk we thank rachel croson and the participants at the 2004 assa meetings for their helpful comments and jeffrey bielicki for his excellent research assistance we gratefully acknowledge financial support from the russell sage foundation the leverhulme trust and the economic and social research council u k via else 1 for a recent survey see james andreoni and rachel croson 2004 studies examining the effects of different institutional environments over time include bohnet et al 2001 and ernst fehr and simon gachter 2003 2 the experiments were computerized using urs fischbacher s 1999 z tree software the instructions are available upon request

incomplete exchange rate pass through and simple monetary policy rules abstract this paper investigates the performance of various monetary policy rules in an open economy with incomplete exchange rate pass through implementing monetary policy through an exchange rate augmented policy rule does not improve social welfare compared to using an optimized taylor rule irrespective of the degree of pass through a direct exchange rate response improves welfare only if the other reaction coefficients on inflation and output are sub optimal however an indirect exchange rate response through a policy reaction to consumer price index cpi inflation rather than to domestic inflation is welfare enhancing this result is independent of whether society values domestic or cpi inflation stabilization

the taylor rule and interest rates in the emu area abstract we demonstrate that average interest rates in the emu countries in 1990 98 with the exception of the period of exchange market turmoil in 1992 93 moved very closely with average output gaps and inflation as suggested by the taylor rule

regional banking instability and fomc voting abstract this study analyzes if regionally affiliated federal open market committee fomc members take their districts regional banking sector instability into account when they vote considering the period 1979 2010 we find that a deterioration in a district s bank health increases the probability that this district s representative in the fomc votes to ease interest rates according to member specific characteristics the effect of regional banking sector instability on fomc voting behavior is most pronounced for bank presidents as opposed to governors and fomc members who have career backgrounds in the financial industry or who represent a district with a large banking sector

what causes exchange rate volatility evidence from selected emu members and candidates for emu membership countries abstract we allow for monetary real and financial variables to assess the relevant importance of each of the variables to exchange rate volatility in the case of selected emu members and candidate countries ex ante analysis shows that volatility in the polish zloty euro and the hungarian forint euro forex markets can be influenced by the monetary side of the economy on the other hand ex post analysis shows that forex markets in france italy and spain had been influenced during the pre emu era by monetary and real shocks however the irish pound exchange rate per ecu had been affected by only real shocks

high public debt in currency crises fundamentals versus signaling effects abstract this paper examines how public debt government credibility and external circumstances affect the probability of currency devaluations in a three period open economy version of the barro and gordon j polit economy 91 1983 589 model nominal public debt links current to future policy actions resisting a crisis may either enhance or undermine the sustainability of the exchange rate regime depending on whether what matters is the government s reputation or fundamentals i e the level of the debt the focus is on the impact of public debt debt maturity and the government s credibility on the expected devaluation in the current and future periods we can thus identify the factors that affect the short term interest rate and the forward rate hence derive predictions about the level and the slope of the yield curve

does the ecb act as a lender of last resort during the subprime lending crisis evidence from monetary policy reaction models abstract we investigate whether the ecb aligns its monetary policy with financial crisis risk in emu member countries we find that since the outbreak of the subprime crisis the ecb has significantly increased net lending and reduced interest rates when banking and sovereign debt crisis risk in vulnerable emu countries greece ireland italy portugal and spain increases while no significant effect is identified for the pre crisis period and relatively tranquil emu countries austria belgium france germany and the netherlands these findings suggest that the ecb acts as a lender of last resort for vulnerable emu countries

an optimum currency area odyssey abstract the theory of optimum currency areas was conceived and developed in three highly influential papers written by mundell 1961 mckinnon 1963 and kenen 1969 those authors identified characteristics that potential members of a monetary union should ideally possess in order to make it feasible to surrender a nationally tailored monetary policy and the adjustment of an exchange rate of a national currency we trace the development of optimum currency area theory which after a flurry of research into the subject in the 1960s was relegated to intellectual purgatory for about 20 years we then discuss factors that led to a renewed interest into the subject beginning in the early 1990s milton friedman plays a pivotal role in our narrative friedman s work on monetary integration in the early 1950s presaged subsequent optimum currency area contributions mundell s classic formulation of an optimal currency area was aimed in part at refuting friedman s strong case for floating exchange rates and friedman s work on the role of monetary policy had the effect of helping to revive interest in optimum currency area analysis the paper concludes with a discussion of recent analytical work using new keynesian models which has the promise of fulfilling the unfinished agenda set out by the original contributors to the optimum currency area literature that is providing a consistent framework in which a country s characteristics can be used to determine its optimal exchange rate regime

consumption smoothing migration and marriage evidence from rural india a significant proportion of migration in low income countries particularly in rural areas is composed of moves by women for the purpose of marriage we seek to explain these mobility patterns by examining marital arrangements among indian households in particular we hypothesize that the marriage of daughters to locationally distant dispersed yet kinship related households is a manifestation of implicit interhousehold contractual arrangements aimed at mitigating income risks and facilitating consumption smoothing in an environment characterized by information costs and spatially covariant risks analysis of longitudinal south indian village data lends support to the hypothesis marriage cum migration contributes significantly to a reduction in the variability of household food consumption farm households afflicted with more variable profits tend to engage in longer distance marriage cum migration the hypothesized and observed marriage cum migration patterns are in dissonance with standard models of marriage or migration that are concerned primarily with search costs and static income gains