how much damage will climate change do recent estimates two reasons to be concerned about climate change are its unjust distributional impact and its negative aggregate effect on economic growth and welfare although our knowledge of the impact of climate change is incomplete and uncertain economic valuation is difficult and controversial and the effect of other developments on the impacts of climate change is largely speculative the authors find that poorer countries and people are more vulnerable than are richer countries and people a modest global warming is likely to have a net negative effect on poor countries in hot climates but may have a net positive effect on rich countries in temperate climates if one counts dollars the world aggregate may be positive if one counts people the world aggregate is probably negative negative impacts would become more negative and positive impacts would turn negative for more substantial warming the marginal costs of carbon dioxide emissions are uncertain and sensitive to assumptions that partially reflect ethical positions but are unlikely to be larger than 50 per tonne carbon

the limits of market oriented regulatory techniques the case of automotive fuel economy the search for more efficient market oriented regulatory techniques has produced significant recent advances in several areas among these would appear to be the corporate average fuel economy cafe approach to reducing gasoline consumption by the domestic automobile fleet the 1975 energy policy and conservation act required manufacturers to sell fleets with a sales weighted average of 18 miles per gallon in the 1978 model year 19 mpg in 1979 20 mpg in 1980 and 27 5 mpg in 1985 1 the standards for the four intervening years were subsequently set by the national highway traffic safety administration at 22 24 26 and 27 miles per gallon the advantages of the averaging approach over uniform vehicle standards or a gas guzzler tax are two fold first cafe permits each firm to increase its overall fuel efficiency in the cheapest manner since the costs of mileage improvements for different vehicles may be rather different 2 and second it permits the continuation of a diverse product mix to the consumer since a uniform standard would probably result in the demise of certain models these arguments for averaging are now so widely accepted that the principle is being proposed inter alia for automotive emissions standards as well that is instead of maximum allowable emissions for each and every model manufacturers could produce models with various levels of pollutants

the distributional incidence of the gasoline tax in chile abstract this paper analyzes the distributional incidence of the excise tax on gasoline in chile using household budget surveys the incidence is calculated with respect to both income and expenditure distributions in order to consider the potential differences between transitory and permanent income the suits index is estimated as a measure of the degree of progressivity of the tax and confidence intervals are calculated using a bootstrap methodology to statistically compare changes in the incidence given changes in the tax the results show that the tax contrary to the evidence for several developed countries is slightly or moderately progressive with a lower degree of progressivity observed in the calculations based on income than those based on expenditure the simulation of the 25 reduction in the tax rate implemented in 2008 shows that in terms of incidence its effect is to reduce the progressivity of the gasoline tax which is the opposite of what was sought by the government with this policy

fuel tax incidence in developing countries the case of costa rica abstract although fuel taxes are a practical means of curbing vehicular air pollution congestion and accidents in developing countries all of which are typically major problems they are often opposed on distributional grounds yet few studies have investigated fuel tax incidence in a developing country context we use household survey data and income outcome coefficients to analyze fuel tax incidence in costa rica we find that the effect of a 10 fuel price hike through direct spending on gasoline would be progressive its effect through spending on diesel both directly and via bus transportation would be regressive mainly because poorer households rely heavily on buses and its effect through spending on goods other than fuel and bus transportation would be relatively small albeit regressive finally we find that the overall effect of a 10 fuel price hike through all types of direct and indirect spending would be neutral and the magnitude of this combined effect would be modest we conclude that distributional concerns need not rule out using fuel taxes to address pressing public health and safety problems particularly if gasoline and diesel taxes can be differentiated

clearing the air the costs and consequences of higher cafe standards and increased gasoline taxes abstract concerns about energy security and climate change have sparked legislators interest in reducing gasoline consumption by increasing corporate average fuel economy cafe standards using an empirically rich simulation model and cost estimates for anticipated fuel economy technologies we estimate annual costs of reducing long run gasoline consumption by 10 via a 3 8 miles per gallon increase in the standards and the potential cost savings from allowing manufacturers to buy and sell fuel economy credits maximum gasoline savings would be realized only after all existing vehicles were replaced or 14 years in our model a gasoline tax would produce greater immediate savings by encouraging people to drive less and eventually to choose more fuel efficient vehicles we demonstrate the advantage of a tax by comparing the cost of the higher cafe standards over the first 14 years against the cost of a gasoline tax that would save the same amount of gasoline over that time

fuel taxes an important instrument for climate policy abstract this article shows that fuel taxes serve a very important role for the environment and that we risk a backlash of increased emissions if they are abolished fuel taxes have restrained growth in fuel demand and associated carbon emissions although fuel demand is large and growing our analysis shows that it would have been much higher in the absence of domestic fuel taxes people often assert that fuel demand is inelastic but there is strong research evidence showing the opposite the price elasticity is in fact quite high but only in the long run in the short run it may be quite inelastic which has important implications for policy makers had europe not followed a policy of high fuel taxation but had low us taxes then fuel demand would have been twice as large hypothetical transport demand in the whole oecd area is calculated for various tax scenarios and the results show that fuel taxes are the single most powerful climate policy instrument implemented to date yet this fact is not usually given due attention in the debate

empirical implications of alternative models of firm dynamics abstract this paper considers two models of firm behavior that allow for heterogeneity among firms idiosyncratic or firm specific sources of uncertainty and discrete outcomes exit and or entry both the characteristics of firm level panel data sets and the nature of the questions we characteristically ask of them imply that models with these features are likely to underlie most detailed empirical work on microdata sets the models we consider are a bayesian learning model due to jovanovic 20 and a model of research and exploration due to ericson and pakes 11 the paper provides a simple set of empirical procedures to help determine which if either of these two models might be appropriate for alternative data sets we conclude by checking for the implications of the two models on an eight year panel of wisconsin firms the results indicate that one model is consistent with the data on manufacturing firms while the other is consistent with the data on retail trade journal of economic literature classification numbers c52 l60 l80

why so small explaining the size of firms in latin america hile a great deal of effort has been devoted to study the determinants ofaggregate economic growth in developing economies little attention hasbeen paid to the factors in uencing the creation growth and destruction of rmsin these economies deriving policy implications from empirical results basedon macroeconomic data is a risky proposition especially for policies that areexpected to have an effect through the response of rms a key issue at a microeconomic level is the extent to which rms are con strained on their pro t maximising technology and on their sales through ele ments such as excessive regulation trade barriers and corruption if world oroecd averages constitute a good proxy for optimal rm size then deviations notexplained by technology differences can be viewed as evidence of inef ciencydue to the presence of those factors the aim of this paper is to empiricallyinvestigate this issue with particular attention to those determinants of rm sizethat might be altered through the adoption of government policies this topic is particularly relevant for latin america a region with one of thelowest rates of growth during the second half of the twentieth century secondonly to the sub saharan countries inter american development bank 2000 ch 1 and where the largest rms in each country are severely undersized notonly by international standards but also in comparison with other developingcountries in fact latin american rms are small with respect to world patterns both in terms of the quantity of assets they control and with respect to the amountof employment they generate the idea that possibilities for business development are more limited inlatin america than in other regions is reinforced by business surveys that assesshow a variety of factors hinder the growth of rms worldwide according to the

firm size and the nature of innovation within industries the case of process and product r d the effect of firm size on the allocation of r d effort between process and product innovation is examined it is hypothesized that relative to product innovations process innovations are less saleable in disembodied form and spawn less growth this implies that the returns to process r d will depend more on the firm s output at the time it conducts its r d than the returns to product r d incorporating this distinction in a simple model the authors derive and test predictions about how the fraction of r d devoted to process innovation varies with firm size within industries

science park location and new technology based firms in sweden implications for strategy and performance one logical way to assess the performance of science parks is to compare the performance of their firms to similar firms not located there a total of 273 new technology based firms ntbfs were surveyed of which 134 were on a science park and 139 were not on a park there were significant differences in the means of strategy dimensions between the on park and off park firms it can be seen that the ntbfs who located in science parks showed significantly greater emphasis on firm characteristics as innovation ability competitor and market orientation sales and employment growth high profits etc the differences indicates a slight advantage for the science park firms the off park sample reported proximity to other firms to be of higher importance than the on park sample in their choice of location however these differences do not show any clear pattern making it difficult to understand if ntbfs who locate on science parks are systematically looking for something different in their location

incorporating affirmative action into the welfare state abstract in this paper we discuss a novel aspect of affirmative action policy we examine its redistributive role asking whether in an egalitarian society supplementing the tax transfer system with an affirmative action policy would enhance social welfare we demonstrate that affirmative action could be a desirable policy tool even if racial discrimination does not exist in the labor market

tax incidence in differentiated product oligopoly abstract we analyze the incidence of ad valorem and unit excise taxes in an oligopolistic industry with differentiated products and price setting bertrand firms both taxes may be passed on to consumers by more than 100 percent and an increase in the tax rate can increase short run firm profits and hence the long run number of firms we provide summary conditions for these effects to arise the conditions depend on demand curvatures and are written in elasticity form surprisingly the analysis largely corroborates cournot results with homogeneous demand

comparative social mobility revisited models of convergence and divergence in 16 countries this paper reanalyzes 3 stratum intergenerational mobility classifications assembled by hazelrigg and garnier for men in 16 countries in the 1960s and 1970s log linear and log multiplicative models are used to compare mobility regimes and to estimate effects of industrialization educational enrollment social democracy and income inequality on immobility and other parameters of the mobility process several models of mobility fit the data equally well so criteria of plausibility and parsimony are applied to choose one model of stratum specific immobility and another model of vertical mobility with uniform immobility we find substantial similarity in mobility and immobility across countries but the exogenous variables do explain systematic differences among countries cross national variations are complex because most of the exogenous variables have different effects on different parameters of the mobility regime relative to other factors industrialization and education have weaker effects on mobility regimes than has usually been supposed

pounds that kill the external costs of vehicle weight heavier vehicles are safer for their own occupants but more hazardous for other vehicles simple theory thus suggests that an unregulated vehicle fleet is inefficiently heavy using three separate identification strategies we show that controlling for own vehicle weight being hit by a vehicle that is 1000 pounds heavier generates a 40 50 increase in fatality risk these results imply a total accident related externality that exceeds the estimated social cost of us carbon emissions and is equivalent to a gas tax of 0 97 per gallon 136 billion annually we consider two policies for internalizing this external cost a weight varying mileage tax and a gas tax and find that they are similar for most vehicles the findings suggest that european gas taxes may be much closer to optimal levels than the us gas tax language en

energy efficiency policy in a non cooperative world abstract in this paper we explore energy efficiency policies in the presence of a global environmental problem and international cost interdependency associated with r d activities we develop a simple model with two regions where the cost of an appliance in one region depends upon the level of energy efficiency in that region and the level of r d activities by the appliance industry in our model the cooperative outcome can be decentralized by imposing a tax on energy however we show that when regions do not cooperate they have an incentive to adopt additional instruments to increase energy efficiency the reason is that the lack of cooperation leads to under taxation of the environmental externality which in turn creates an incentive to try to reduce emissions produced abroad we illustrate this phenomenon with the californian vehicle greenhouse gas standards

adjustment and social costs in chile during the 1980s abstract traditional analysis of adjustment programs tends to underestimate the welfare costs because it assumes that a contraction of nontradable production will close the expenditure income gap while the resulting excess supply of tradables will automatically be exported in chile however tradable output contracted sharply falling almost two thirds as much as nontradable output the conventional analysis also ignores the effect of adjustment on unemployment rates and on real wages this paper argues that the adjustment measures of the 1980s were regressive even though the government was successful in targeting its expenditures toward the very poor during the period of fiscal retrenchment among the regressive adjustment measures were the subsidies to holders of dollar denominated debt provided by the central bank in addition policies to reduce expenditures raised the unemployment rate over 26 reduced real wages by 20 for almost five years and reduced health housing and education budgets by 20 per capita finally the required real devaluation raised the cost of living for the poor

the effects of transport regulation on the oil market does market power matter instruments used to regulate the consumption of oil in the transport sector include fuel taxes biofuel requirements and fuel efficiency standards however the effects that these have on oil consumption and price vary if market power is present in the oil market the directions of change in consumption and price might contrast with those in a competitive market as a result the market structure affects not only the effectiveness of the policy instruments used to reduce oil consumption but also the terms of trade and carbon leakage in particular reduced oil consumption as a result of increased fuel efficiency standards will unambiguously increase the price of oil under a monopoly

optimal gasoline tax in developing oil producing countries the case of mexico this paper uses the methodology of parry and small 2005 to estimate the optimal gasoline tax for a less developed oil producing country the relevance of the estimation relies on the differences between less developed countries ldcs and industrial countries we argue that lawless roads general subsidies on gasoline poor mass transportation systems older vehicle fleets and unregulated city growth make the tax rates in ldcs differ substantially from the rates in the developed world we find that the optimal gasoline tax is 1 90 per gallon at 2011 prices and show that the estimate differences are in line with the factors hypothesized in contrast to the existing literature on industrial countries we show that the relative gasoline tax incidence may be progressive in mexico and more generally in ldcs

cross country differences in intergenerational earnings mobility international studies of the extent to which economic status is passed from one generation to the next are important for at least two reasons first each study of a particular country characterizes an important feature of that country s income inequality second comparisons of intergenerational mobility across countries may yield valuable clues about how income status is transmitted across generations and why the strength of that intergenerational transmission varies across countries the e rst section of this paper explains a benchmark measure of intergenerational mobility commonly used in u s studies the second section summarizes comparable empirical e ndings that have accumulated so far for countries other than the united states the third section sketches a theoretical framework for interpreting cross country differences in intergenerational mobility

loan guarantees costs of default and benefits to small firms abstract governments of most countries seek to encourage small and medium sized enterprise sme growth and the job creation that many believe is fostered by such growth substantive growth usually requires expansion capital it is often perceived that compared with larger firms smes face disproportionately less access to the debt capital they need for start up growth and survival consequently governments and trade associations have often intervened in credit markets by taking on the role of guarantor of loans that financial institutions advance to smes for example the small business administration in the united states provides guarantees of loans made by banks to qualifying small firms similar schemes are in effect in among other countries canada japan the u k korea and germany trade associations take on such roles in france spain and other nations loans that support the expansion of small enterprises may convey significant benefits to the borrowing firms and through job creation and retention to the rest of society however to the extent that some borrowers are unable to meet the repayment obligations of their debt guarantors also face material real costs of honoring their guarantee to the lenders loan guarantee programs are designed in a variety of ways often these programs do not appear to reflect guidance from economic theory or experience this paper draws on empirical evidence to compare costs with benefits in addition it uses the results and economic theory to provide some guidance for the design of loan guarantee programs finally the study shows that loan guarantee programs can be an effective means of supporting start up growth and survival of new and risky enterprises the work finds that substantial total and incremental job creation may be attributed to the canadian loan guarantee program the paper reviews previous attempts to conduct cost benefit analyses of loan guarantee programs it finds wide variation internationally in default rates published data suggests default rates vary from less than 5 germany to more than 40 u k the empirical analysis reported here focuses on the canadian implementation of loan guarantees the small business loans act sbla findings include 1 loan guarantees granted under the terms of the sbla provide an extremely efficient means of job creation with very low estimated costs per job 2 default rates are higher for newer firms increase with the amount of funds borrowed and vary widely by sector borrowers in the retail and accommodation and food and beverage sectors were significantly more likely to default than borrowers in other sectors and 3 the widening eligibility to larger firms and to larger loans may not be well advised and is inconsistent with the goals of the program moreover reducing the loan ceiling would arguably discourage fraudulent applications while servicing those smes most in need of early stage capital in addition analysis of the lenders motives suggests that default rates on the portfolio of guaranteed loans and therefore the costs of honoring guarantees are particularly sensitive to the level of the guarantee small reductions in the level of the guarantee for example guaranteeing 80 of principal and accrued interest instead of 85 could lead to substantial reductions in default rates debate persists in economic theory about whether or not government intervention in the credit market is warranted in spite of the findings that loan guarantees seem to make positive contributions further analysis of these issues is advised

co2 taxes equity and the double dividend macroeconomic model simulations for austria abstract this paper investigates the impacts of co2 tax schemes on co2 emissions equity and macroeconomic indicators in austria with the macroeconomic model dynk aut our scenarios focus on non ets co2 emissions and comprise different tax rates and revenue recycling options lower labor taxes lower vat and lump sum payments the short term comparative scenario analysis indicates that co2 taxes without recycling lead to significant co2 emission reductions at moderate economic costs equity impacts on households depend on the indicator used but can be regressive without recycling most recycling schemes can achieve a double dividend i e emission reductions and increases in gdp lump sum payments are less efficient than reducing the vat or labor taxes equity impacts are progressive with lump sum payments rather proportional with lower vat and regressive with lower labor taxes a combination of recycling schemes and or a restriction of lump sum payments to lower income households can minimize the trade off between equity and efficiency our simulations suggest that well designed co2 tax schemes could be a crucial and socially acceptable element within a comprehensive policy package to achieve ghg emission targets for non ets sectors in austria

environmental policy and vehicle safety the impact of gasoline taxes i introduction public policy to address the environmental externalities associated with automobile use will likely lead to substantial changes in the composition of the u s passenger vehicle fleet while many economists suggest pigovian taxation as the best approach to this problem anderson et al 2011 the main policy instrument in the united states has been the corporate average fuel economy cafe standards which have recently been dramatically increased environmental protection agency and department of transportation 2012 while most of the improvement in fuel economy will necessarily come from technological improvements an inexpensive way to improve fuel economy is simply to lower vehicle weights indeed the text of the new regulations states that we expect manufacturers to reduce vehicle mass as a compliance strategy p 62741 the reduction in vehicle weight that occurred in response to the oil price shocks of the 1970s and the initial cafe standards was estimated by crandall and graham 1989 to substantially increase automobile accident fatalities the passenger vehicle fleet has changed greatly since 1989 with one of the most notable features being the increase in the prevalence of light trucks a category that includes minivans pickup trucks and sport utility vehicles suvs several authors have suggested that the external impacts on the safety of occupants of other vehicles may exceed the protective benefit afforded to light truck owners so that the now heavier vehicle fleet might actually be detrimental to overall safety see especially gayer 2004 white 2004 and anderson 2008 the negative safety and environmental externalities associated with vehicle weight could potentially be addressed simultaneously via pigovian taxation further strengthening the argument for taxation over fuel economy standards an important problem that must be addressed in interpreting automobile accident data is to disentangle vehicle fatality rates into a vehicle safety component treatment effect and a driver safety component selection effect this paper presents a novel model that allows simultaneous estimation of the relationship of vehicle weight with the safety of the own vehicle occupants internal impacts and that of other vehicle occupants external impacts conditional upon an accident occurring these estimates can then be used to estimate the relative riskiness of drivers of different types of vehicles the model is estimated using maximum likelihood techniques and data from the fatality analysis reporting system fars which includes data on every fatal accident that occurs in the united states but excludes all non fatal accidents the main empirical finding of the paper is that the protective effects of weight on own occupants are diminishing while the destructive external effects on other vehicle occupants are increasing for marginal vehicle weight changes above approximately 3 800 pounds the external costs outweigh the internal benefits in two vehicle crashes while the protective effect of vehicle weight in single vehicle crashes partly compensates for this a substantial fraction of the vehicle fleet is above the weight where net safety costs exceed benefits the safety externalities associated with these heaviest vehicles substantially exceed the environmental externalities associated with carbon emissions the nature of the model lends itself to simulating the potential impact of relatively arbitrary changes to the vehicle fleet composition simulations of hypothetical changes in the vehicle weight distribution establish that reducing vehicle weight can either increase or decrease automobile accident fatalities depending upon whether the reductions are concentrated at the lower or higher end of the current weight distribution recent empirical changes to the weight distribution of cars sold in the united states are incorporated into the simulation model which predicts little impact on accident fatalities

consumers motivational associations favoring free range meat or less meat abstract the present paper analyzed the motivational orientations of consumers who choose to eat 1 small portions of meat or 2 ethically distinctive meat such as free range meat in relation to the motivational orientations of their opposites going beyond the conventional approach to consumer behavior our work builds on recent insights in motivational psychology about the ways in which people may approach matches or avoid mismatches to the desired end state of getting enough nourishment by eating the right food consumers who tend to approach matches are often focused on choosing the best alternatives from their choice set chronic promotion focus consumers who tend to avoid mismatches are often focused on rejecting unacceptable alternatives from their choice set chronic prevention focus distinguishing these two motivational orientations provides a scientific basis for the aim to foster more sustainable food consumption and production patterns our approach involves a systematic analysis of consumers goal orientations regarding meat choices we examined how a sample of dutch consumers n 939 described their chronic motivational orientations regarding food their own meat choices and about two weeks later their promotion and prevention oriented associations favoring either small portions of meat and free range meat or their opposites largely in line with our hypotheses we found that consumers with a chronic prevention orientation avoided the mismatch of large portions also those of them who paid the premium price of free range meat considered eating meat produced by intensive farming a mismatch conversely if consumers with a chronic promotion orientation paid the premium price of free range meat they considered this the best alternative from their choice set accordingly choosing a small portion of meat was often approached with a prevention orientation and choosing free range meat with either a prevention or a promotion orientation these differences in motivational orientation underline that the pursuit of sustainability requires careful consideration of not just undesirable but also of desirable alternatives

do higher gasoline taxes save lives abstract this study presents panel based evidence on the overall traffic fatality consequences of recent changes in state gasoline taxes our results suggest that plausibly exogenous increases in state gasoline taxes are associated with fewer traffic fatalities

short run pricing strategies to increase corporate average fuel economy short run pricing strategies to increase corporate average fuel economy i introduction in 1974 the average fuel efficiency of new automobiles sold in the united states reached a low of 14 2 miles per gallon mpg close on the heels of the arab opec oil embargo of 1973 74 and the ensuing petroleum price shocks congress passed the 1975 energy policy and conservation act the act required each manufacturer to meet sales weighted corporate average fuel economy cafe standards beginning with 18 mpg in 1978 and gradually increasing each year to 27 5 mpg in 1985 figure 1 the expressed purpose of the cafe standards was to stimulate the development of technology to improve fuel efficiency the possibility of raising the relative prices of the least energy efficient models as a strategy to meet the standards was considered but only as a last resort 1 although there continues to be intense debate as to whether fuel price increases or the cafe regulations drove the fuel economy improvements of the 1970s and 80s several studies agree that improvements in automotive engineering and design rather than pricing strategies played an overwhelmingly dominant role 2 no empirical evidence supports the effectiveness of using pricing strategies to increase the overall level of automotive fuel economy every year since 1985 automobile manufacturers have successfully petitioned the national highway traffic safety administration which determines the level of the cafe standard to reduce the target from 27 5 to 26 mpg in 1986 88 and 26 5 mpg in 1989 in each case at least one manufacturer argued that it would be unable to meet the original target with its planned product offerings and would have to resort to other strategies that would result in unacceptable economic costs this paper explores a method of estimating the costs of achieving fuel economy goals when pricing strategies are used to alter the distribution of sales the method employs the closed form equation for consumers surplus derived from the multinational logit model of discrete choice discussed by mcfadden 1973 and assumes that manufacturers must bear the full cost of meeting the fuel economy target the estimated cost represents an upper bound on the losses firms would incur by setting prices to minimize loss of profit using econometric estimates of the sensitivity of vehicle choice to vehicle price together with market shares and fuel efficiencies for 1986 i estimate the costs of short term improvements in average fuel economy using pricing strategies for general motors ford and chrysler minor adjustments of up to 1 mpg cost 1 2 percent of the price of a 10 000 car for improvements of 2 mpg or more however pricing strategies become a costly way to improve fuel economy the technique also estimates the market shares for each car line that correspond to the pricing solution it thereby identifies which car lines would be most affected the technique produces precise price changes and market shares for each car line readers should not place too much weight on the apparent precision but should consider the estimates as an approximation the usefulness of which lies in measuring the difficulty of meeting fuel economy targets via pricing strategies alone one can compare the size of these estimates to the fines for failing to meet the standards 50 per mpg per car or to typical manufacturer rebates to stimulate sales often 100 to 2 000 per car ii a formulation of the pricing problem faced with the cafe requirements a firm can respond with engineering and design improvements or by raising the prices of less efficient models and lowering the prices of those that exceed the standard technological improvements generally require a lead time of three to five years very large fluctuations in fuel prices have occurred in far shorter perids figure 1 creating the risk that a manufacturer s product offering could be out of step with the market

carbon tax incidence on household demand effects on welfare income inequality and poverty incidence in thailand abstract studying the impact of a carbon tax on household demand can be relevant in terms of securing public acceptance of a carbon tax and clarifying the implications for policy design this paper aims to fill a gap in the academic literature by simulating carbon tax scenarios and estimating distributional effects of the tax on household welfare income inequality and poverty rates based on household consumption in thailand the study employs a microsimulation model incorporating the economy wide effects of the tax on prices and consumers behavioral responses to changes in prices the results indicate that a carbon tax is progressive in thailand under revenue recycling scenarios by expanding social transfer programs when carbon tax revenues are recycled through pensions for elderly people the carbon tax could reduce the poverty rate and improve the welfare of households in the lowest quintile the results imply that the distributional impacts of environmental taxes could result in favorable outcomes for income inequality and poverty reduction in developing countries

fuel economy car class mix and safety fuel economy standards change the composition of the vehicle fleet potentially influencing accident fatality risks i estimate the direction and magnitude of this impact introducing a correction for selection on driver behavior a policy application using my new estimates shows that the present distinction between light trucks and cars in fuel economy rules has very negative consequences for overall safety each mpg increment to the standard results in an additional 150 fatalities per year in expectation my correction for selection is pivotal in this finding i then demonstrate a simple alternative regulation that can produce near zero changes in accident fatalities

this is what happened to the oil price macroeconomy relationship abstract many of the quarterly oil price increases observed since 1985 are corrections to even bigger oil price decreases the previous quarter when one looks at the net increase in oil prices over the year recent data are consistent with the historical correlation between oil shocks and recessions

sustainability labels on food products consumer motivation understanding and use this study investigates the relationship between consumer motivation understanding and use of sustainability labels on food products both environmental and ethical labels which are increasingly appearing on food products data was collected by means of an online survey implemented in the uk france germany spain sweden and poland with a total sample size of 4408 respondents respondents expressed medium high to high levels of concern with sustainability issues at the general level but lower levels of concern in the context of concrete food product choices understanding of the concept of sustainability was limited but understanding of four selected labels fair trade rainforest alliance carbon footprint and animal welfare was better as some of them seem to be self explanatory the results indicated a low level of use no matter whether use was measured as self reported use of different types of information available on food labels or as use inferred from the results of a choice based conjoint analysis hierarchical regression indicated that use is related to both motivation and understanding and that both motivation understanding and use are affected by demographic characteristics human values as measured by the schwartz value domains and country differences the results imply that sustainability labels currently do not play a major role in consumers food choices and future use of these labels will depend on the extent to which consumers general concern about sustainability can be turned into actual behaviour

food labeling and eco friendly consumption experimental evidence from a belgian supermarket using an incentive compatible framed field experiment we investigate whether consumers food consumption is more eco friendly when the information about a product s environmental impact is more easily accessible through an online survey we identify a food label that is perceived to be the most easily accessible for assessing a product s eco friendliness among six alternatives these alternatives vary on multiple dimensions including whether a standardized score of the overall environmental impact is added this new food label is subsequently tested in an experimental food market embedded in a belgian supermarket we find that the presence of the new label that was preselected in the online survey leads to more eco friendly food consumption relative to either the label currently used in the supermarket or the label that contains the raw information of the environmental impact in our experimental food market the use of an easy to interpret but comprehensive environmental information label increases the overall eco friendliness of our subjects food consumption by about 5 3 relative to the default label used in current markets

regulating automobile pollution under certainty competition and imperfect information abstract this paper studies an integrated economic model of automobile emissions that incorporates consumer mileage automobile feature and fuel content choices subject to informational constraints that bind the government optimal regulatory policies are shown to include fuel content standards gasoline taxes and direct automobile regulation or taxation optimal automobile taxes are tied to the mileage that regulators can anticipate will be driven on a given car in dynamic environments constrained efficiency can be achieved by periodic automobile taxes or under some circumstances a combination of new car regulation and accelerated vehicle retirement subsidies desired properties of vehicle retirement programs are discussed

machine replacement and the business cycle lumps and bumps this paper explores investment fluctuations due to discrete changes in a plant s capital stock the resulting aggregate investment dynamics are surprisingly rich reflecting the interaction between a replacement cycle the cross sectional distribution of the age of the capital stock and an aggregate shock using plant level data lumpy investment is procyclical and more likely for older capital further the predicted path of aggregate investment that neglects vintage effects tracks actual aggregate investment reasonably well however ignoring fluctuations in the cross sectional distribution of investment vintages can yield predictable nontrivial errors in forecasting changes in aggregate investment

the role of small firms in the technology development of china science technology s t is high on the chinese policy agenda and the country aims at becoming an innovation driven economy small firms have been important in technology development in other east asian countries but the situation in chinese small firms has been far less explored we examine how much s t has been accounted for by small firms and how their s t intensity differs across industries and ownership groups we also analyse how various firm characteristics differ over size categories and s t status this study is based on newly processed micro level data provided by the national bureau of statistics with information on a large number of s t indicators for manufacturing firms in china in 2000 and 2004 our results suggest that the role of small firms in chinese s t is similar to that in many other countries they account for a comparably small share of total s t and most small firms are not engaged in any s t however those small firms that do engage in s t tend to be more s t intensive and have a higher output in terms of patents than larger chinese s t firms

lifetime incidence and the distributional burden of excise taxes this implies that low income households in one year have some chance of being higher income households in other years and significantly affects the estimated distributional burden of excise taxes this paper shows that household expenditures on gasoline alcohol and tobacco as a share of total consumption a proxy for lifetime income are much more equally distributed than expenditures as a share of annual income from a longer horizon perspective excise taxes on these goods are therefore much less regressive than standard analyses suggest this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

why has the introduction of natural gas vehicles failed in germany lessons on the role of market failure in markets for alternative fuel vehicles despite private investments exceeding two billion euros and tax incentives of more than 500 million euros the market share of natural gas vehicles ngvs in germany has lagged far behind expectations and behind market developments in other countries with total cost of ownership being on average lower for ngvs than for gasoline and diesel vehicles this raises the question of the existence of market failure in the german ngv market we use a case study approach where we combine quantitative data with insights from a multi industry expert panel and in depth interviews with experts from industry government and civil society in order to examine whether and how different types of market failure contribute to the status quo in the german market for ngvs we conclude that coordination failure in complementary markets an artificially created monopoly of service stations at motorways imperfect information bounded consumer rationality and principle agent problems are the most prominent market failures inhibiting the development of a functioning market for ngvs our results are instructive for the design of effective public policies and investor strategies aiming to create markets for alternative fuel vehicles

vehicle miles not traveled fuel economy requirements vehicle characteristics and household driving abstract a major concern with addressing the negative externalities of gasoline consumption by regulating fuel economy rather than increasing fuel taxes is that households respond by driving more this paper exploits a discrete threshold in the eligibility for cash for clunkers to show that fuel economy restrictions lead households to purchase vehicles that have lower cost per mile but are also smaller and lower performance whereas the former effect can increase driving the latter effect can reduce it results indicate that these households do not drive more suggesting that behavioral responses do not necessarily undermine the effectiveness of fuel economy restrictions at reducing gasoline consumption

unequal but fluid social mobility in chile in comparative perspective a major finding in comparative mobility research is the high similarity across countries and the lack of association between mobility and other national attributes with one exception higher inequality seems to be associated with lower mobility evidence for the mobility inequality link is however inconclusive largely because most mobility studies have been conducted in advanced countries with relatively similar levels of inequality this article introduces chile to the comparative project as the 10th most unequal country in the world chile is an adjudicative case if high inequality results in lower mobility chile should be significantly more rigid than its industrialized peers this hypothesis is disproved by the analysis despite vast economic inequality chile is as fluid if not more so than the much more equal industrialized nations furthermore there is no evidence of a decline in mobility as the result of the increase in inequality during the market oriented transformation of the country

comparing alternative policies to reduce traffic accidents abstract this paper derives and implements formulas for the welfare effects of uniform mileage taxes gasoline taxes per mile insurance premiums and mileage taxes differentiated across vehicle and driver groups for reducing the external costs of passenger vehicle accidents the average external accident cost is estimated at 2 2 6 6 cents per mile accidents costs differ substantially across driver groups but only moderately across vehicles groups annual welfare gains from a mileage tax equal to marginal external costs for each driver vehicle group are 9 4 billion in the benchmark case the uniform mileage tax and per mile insurance reform can achieve 76 and 65 of this welfare gain respectively while the gasoline tax can achieve only 28 of the welfare gain unlike other policies the gasoline tax induces costly improvements in average fleet fuel economy that have little effect on reducing external costs

environmentalism stimulus and inequality reduction through industrial policy did cash for clunkers achieve the trifecta the 2009 american cash for clunkers program which subsidized consumers who scrapped old vehicles and purchased new vehicles was promoted by appealing to multiple constituencies we evaluate the policy and alternatives according to its stated goals emissions reductions economic stimulus and reducing inequality we calibrate a dynamic partial equilibrium portfolio model to match consumer expenditure data from 1998 to 2011 focusing on heterogeneity across cars and trucks we find the program generated 0 17 in environmental benefits 0 28 in consumer surplus and 0 31 in net discounted additional spending per subsidy dollar since subsidies largely went to middle income infra marginal consumers the program exacerbated consumption inequality we evaluate alternative policy designs and find no policy which simultaneously improves all outcomes jel h23 l52 l92 d63

automobile externalities and policies this paper discusses the nature and magnitude of externalities associated with automobile use including local and global pollution oil dependence traffic congestion and traffic accidents it then discusses current federal policies affecting these externalities including fuel taxes fuel economy and emissions standards and alternative fuel policies summarizing insofar as possible the welfare effects of those policies finally we discuss emerging pricing policies including congestion tolls and insurance reform and summarize the appropriate combination of policies to address automobile externalities

policy watch the economics of fuel economy standards one of the most hotly contested of all energy policy issues involves corporate average fuel economy or cafe standards for new cars and light duty trucks tighter standards would reduce gasoline consumption and hence both greenhouse gas emissions as well as this country s vulnerability to oil price shocks but they would also increase the price of new vehicles worsen traffic congestion and depending on how they are phased in possibly even reduce occupant safety these effects are amenable to economic analysis and we review the evidence to date bearing on this interesting and important question

why is china so competitive measuring and explaining china s competitiveness this paper evaluates factors responsible for the competitiveness of china in the world economy and relative to its east asian rivals china has been highly successful in capturing world export markets chinese competitiveness is not just a matter of an undervalued exchange and extremely low labor costs it reflects primarily the coincidence of favorable cost conditions with improvements in china s ability to produce products that meet world market specifications these improvements are closely related to foreign participation in china s economy through foreign direct investment and joint venture enterprises

how disagreement about social costs leads to inefficient energy productivity investment public energy productivity investment influences the amount of future energy consumption if a present government expects its successor to value the social costs of fuel usage differently this adds a strategic component to its investment considerations we analyze this governmental time inconsistency situation as a sequential game in particular we show how the expectation of a more conservative party taking over makes a green government choose an investment level that is inefficient in that neither of the parties would prefer it to the investment level of a permanent green government under some circumstances the opposition would even prefer the government definitely to stay in power the gain from avoiding a strategic investment then outweighs the loss of not being able to regulate energy consumption we also analyze the welfare gains from binding agreements

income distribution in europe and the united states this paper assembles empirical evidence about the personal distribution of income in europe and the united states it presents data for the distribution in the 1980s and shows that the us had distinctly higher inequality largely arising at the bottom of the scale within western europe the scandinavian countries benelux and west germany have less inequality southern europe and ireland have higher inequality the differences in the distribution between the us and europe on be sufficient to outweigh differences in average incomes treating the european union as an entity does not indicate that the difference can be explained simply by scale prototype estimates indicate that the eu is less unequal than the us the origin of the difference between the us and europe appears to have been a period of fall ins inequality in the 1970s the picture changed in the 1980s and in the uk and sweden income inequality rose at a more rapid rate than in the us copyright 1996 by oxford university press

the effect of standards and fuel prices on automobile fuel economy an international analysis abstract there is an intense debate over whether fuel economy standards or fuel taxation is the more efficient policy instrument to raise fuel economy and reduce co 2 emissions of cars the aim of this paper is to analyze the impact of standards and fuel prices on new car fuel economy with the aid of cross section time series analysis of data from 18 countries we employ a dynamic specification of new car fuel consumption as a function of fuel prices standards and per capita income it turns out that standards have induced considerable fuel savings throughout the world although their welfare impact is not examined here if standards are not further tightened then retail fuel prices would have to remain at high levels for more than a decade in order to attain similar fuel savings finally without higher fuel prices or tighter standards one should not expect any marked improvements in fuel economy under business as usual conditions

vertical and nonvertical effects in class mobility cross national variations class theorists often argue against the use of unidimensional or hierarchical analyses in class mobility research they assert that nonvertical effects are of paramount importance in understanding the structure and process of stratification by explicitly incorporating both vertical and nonvertical effects into the structural model of class mobility i demonstrate the importance of both effects for understanding the structure of mobility chances within and between countries although vertical and nonvertical effects are equally important in explaining association patterns in individual countries nonvertical effects are the major source of cross national variation two nonvertical effects are particularly important economic sector of employment whether nonmanual manual or farm and employment status whether self employed or not