advertising random sales response and brand competition some theoretical and econometric implications this paper examines implications for the firm s advertising decisions under conditions of random sales response to advertising within the context of multibrand competition the competitive environment assumed is characterized not only by interactions among different companies within a given industry but also by inter actions among different brands produced by a single company a theoretical model is first formulated to examine the effect of uncertainty in the sales advertising relations and that of the firm s attitude toward risk on its advertising the theoretical results are then assessed by estimating an econometric model using the cigarette data copyright 1987 by the university of chicago

male labour force participation following illness or injury this paper develops a model of the disabled individual s labour force participation decision following illness or injury and confronts it with data on the financial consequences of ill health a utility function is specified which allows for the effect of changes in health on work leisure preferences and is evaluated in relation to a household budget constraint estimation is through maximization of the appropriate likelihood function correcting for self selection bias within a switching regression model results are presented showing significant effects of financial variables on participation and these are seen to vary with age disability and income

the exchange rate regime and the currency composition of corporate debt the mexican experience abstract this paper analyzes the effect that the change from a fixed to a floating exchange rate regime that took place in mexico in december 1994 had on the currency composition of corporate debt in particular the paper asks whether a fixed exchange rate regime biases corporate borrowing towards foreign currency due to an implicit exchange rate guarantee given by the government therefore under a predetermined regime firms will not fully internalize their exchange rate risk and will be more likely to engage in balance sheet mismatches than under a floating regime we study the main determinants of foreign currency borrowing of those firms listed in the mexican stock exchange from 1992 to 2000 to test whether balance sheet currency mismatches fell after the adoption of the floating exchange rate regime the results found support the view that the floating exchange rate regime has been useful in reducing exchange rate exposure

modeling asymmetric competition the effects of the marketing actions of one brand can be distributed among its competitors market shares in a complex manner this paper presents and illustrates methods for modeling brand competition and brand strategies in markets where competitive effects can be differentially and asymmetrically distributed we discuss the empirical specification parameter estimation and competitive strategy implications of the models proposed price and advertising competition among eleven brands of an australian household product is used to illustrate the application of these procedures

panel estimates of the determinants of british regional male incapacity benefits rolls 1998 2006 this article explores the determinants of the proportion of the working age male population claiming incapacity benefits ib across the 11 british government office regions for the period 1998 to 2006 three different approaches are adopted to modelling register dynamics first treating ib stocks as if they were trend stationary albeit with persistence and estimating reduced form models for their logs second treating ib stocks as if they were nonstationary and examining their long run determinants plus short run equilibrium reversion properties third focusing on the determinants of gross inflows and outflows that together drive ib stocks given the nature of the data no approach is ideal yet the models provide reasonably robust evidence that labour market changes specifically falling unemployment rates and rising real earnings have contributed to falling male ib stocks over the period

contractionary devaluation risk evidence from the free silver movement 1878 1900 i identify significant effects of devaluation risk on interest rates and output using us silver coinage policy news between 1878 and 1900 as clean shocks to exchange rate expectations the free sil

unemployment and female labour supply the definition of labour force participation in the standard labour supply model stands in sharp contrast to that used in compiling the labour force statistics in the labour supply models only those supplying positive hours of work are considered to be labour force participants on the other hand participation in the labour force statistics is often defined to include not only those supplying positive hours but also those actively searching for work this paper is an attempt to reconcile these concepts by allowing unemployed workers to enter a generalisation of the standard labour supply model this turns out to be a convenient way to enter demand side factors directly into the determination of an individual s labour market position the model is applied with some success to the working behaviour of married women in the uk family expenditure survey

why have uk disability benefit rolls grown so much abstract over the last 30 years many countries including the uk have seen a dramatic rise in the share of the working age population receiving sickness and disability benefits hereafter disability benefits this is despite health levels that are generally thought to be slowly improving this paper describes the time path of uk disability benefit rolls and explores the existing uk literature together with literature from the usa in search of potential explanations for it since the early 1990s despite a number of detailed descriptive studies surprisingly little attention has been paid to quantifying the importance of the different factors believed to be driving the uk benefit roll growth this is all the more surprising given the continued growth and the level of policy attention recently and currently devoted to disability benefits in the uk

endogeneity and simultaneity in competitive pricing and advertising a logit demand analysis in this article we use four data sets to provide a benchmark study of the effects of accounting for endogeneity and simultaneity in estimating marketing mix effects in a logit demand framework we compare the results obtained from accounting for endogeneity only to those from accounting for both endogeneity and simultaneity and in the latter case we allow for more general models of firm behavior to examine the consequences of imposing assumptions about the behavior of firms we find that accounting for both endogeneity and simultaneity not only affects the parameter estimates but also results in efficiency gains that affect the statistical significance of the estimates

corporate dollar debt and depreciations much ado about nothing abstract emerging markets firms often carry foreign currency debt on their balance sheets following a depreciation the expanding peso value of dollar liabilities could via a net worth effect offset the expansionary competitiveness effect to assess which effect dominates we use accounting data including the currency composition of liabilities for 450 nonfinancial firms in five latin american countries in the 1990s we find that firms holding more dollar debt do not invest less than their peso indebted counterparts following a depreciation we also show that these firms match the currency denomination of their liabilities with the exchange rate sensitivity of their profits

using game theory to model competition the article is an exposition of the basic concepts of noncooperative game theory and their application to advertising product and price competition

a theory of dynamic oligopoly iii cournot competition abstract we study the markov perfect equilibrium mpe of an alternating move infinite horizon duopoly model where the strategic variable is quantity we exhibit a pair of difference differential equations that when they exist differentiable mpe strategies satisfy for quadratic payoff functions we solve these equations in closed form and demonstrate that the mpe corresponding to the solution is the limit of the finite horizon equilibrium as the horizon tends to infinity we conclude with a discussion of adjustment costs and endogenization of the timing

a model of advertising competition using a dynamic model of advertising rivalry between competitors in a duopoly the author obtains analytical results for the case of pure market share rivalry in a mature market a more general mod

analytical models of competition with implications for marketing issues findings and outlook the authors review a representative cross section of analytical models of competition using a framework for competitive analysis developed from a marketing perspective models are classified by the

financial crisis and credit crunch in korea evidence from firm level data abstract this paper analyzes the credit crunch following the recent financial crisis in korea using enterprise level data we find that there were big differences in the magnitude of the credit contraction across different types of firms in particular chaebol conglomerate affiliated firms appeared to have lost the preferential access to credit that they had enjoyed in the pre crisis period and credit appears to have been reallocated in favor of more efficient firms this suggests that the credit crunch suffered by certain sectors can be attributed to the adjustment by banks and enterprises to the restructuring of the financial sector rather than tight monetary policy or an external credit constraint

the impact of foreign liabilities on small firms firm level evidence from the korean crisis abstract using korean firm level data on publicly listed and privately held firms together with firm exit data we find strong evidence that holdings of foreign currency denominated debt negatively affected the economic performance of small firms during the 1997 98 crisis the large exchange rate depreciation that occurred during the crisis resulted in a decline in net worth for firms with foreign currency denominated debt on their balance sheets small firms with more short term foreign debt were more likely to declare bankruptcy conditional on surviving the crisis small firms that had more short term foreign debt experienced larger declines in sales the exit bankruptcy margin accounts for a large fraction of small firms adjustment during the crisis

why do disability benefit rolls vary between regions a review of the evidence from the usa and the uk mcvicar d 2006 why do disability benefit rolls vary between regions a review of the evidence from the usa and the uk regional studies 40 519 533 over the last 30 years many organization for economic co operation and development oecd countries have seen a dramatic rise in the share of the working age population receiving earnings replacement sickness and disability benefits the reasons behind this growth particularly for the usa but also to a lesser extent elsewhere have been extensively researched in the economics literature what have been less well researched are the large spatial differences in the size of disability benefit rolls that have emerged in some countries over this period the uk displays a distinct regional pattern where working age men and women in the north are considerably more likely to be claiming disability benefits than those in the south the usa has its own version of the north south divide with many southern states displaying disproportionately large disabilit

differential game models of advertising competition abstract differential game methodology combines two attractive features that are critical to the study of advertising competition dynamics and multi competitor decision making a focused review of two decades of differential game modeling of advertising competition indicates that insights gained to date while valuable are of a limited nature and research in the area needs to extend beyond present limits four recent studies are offered as examples of possible directions to follow in continued research

going onto invalidity benefit a study for women 1977 78 1983 84 the main form of state insurance for long term sickness in britain is invalidity benefit there has been a dramatic growth in the stock of claimants on this benefit since its introduction in 1971 a logit model is fitted to explain at the individual level the probability of entering invalidity benefit among over 50 000 women in 1977 8 and over 65 000 in 1983 4 demographic characteristics played a powerful role in this model pay and benefit rates were also significant married women s entry probabilities were highly sensitive to local labour market conditions and much more so than other population groups

disability benefits replacement ratios and the labour market a time series approach in this paper a study of factors affecting the number of disability beneficiaries in norway is presented equations determining entry rates into the disability benefit system are estimated using aggregated time series data grouped by sex and age unemployment is found to influence disability entry the results regarding effects of the replacement ratio are ambiguous a model determining the number of beneficiaries including the estimated entry equations is presented the model is used to simulate the effect of counterfactual changes in exogenous variables on the number of disability beneficiaries

an empirical analysis of dynamic nonprice competition in an oligopolistic industry this article develops a dynamic model of nonprice competition in an oligopolistic industry and uses it to analyze advertising competition in the u s cigarette industry the model generalizes existing studies by allowing advertising to affect both firm market shares and the total size of the market the model also allows dynamic conjectural variations to arise from the intertemporal links created by the durability of advertising we use these dynamic conjectural variations to distinguish alternative models of competitive interaction we estimate the complete model of firm production demand and advertising choice by using data for u s cigarette producers the results indicate that firm advertising primarily affects the level of market demand with a firm s effect on rival firms market shares arising through variations in the number of brands sold empirical results on firm behavior suggest that firms act as if their advertising choices will alter the future advertising choices of rival firms in both the high tar and low tar cigarette markets

how well are women doing female non employment across uk regions discussions of the uk s recent labour market performance commonly mention the contrasting trends in the unemployment rate down the employment rate up and the inactivity rate flat these same commentaries also notice that the flatness of the overall inactivity rate masks contrasting trends by sex with male rates slowly rising and female rates slowly falling and then proceed to discuss male inactivity in some detail before concluding bypassing the composition of female inactivity these commentaries fail to notice that the male and the female proportions of the population not working by reason of sickness or disability are quite similar equally they have rarely noticed that male and female non employment rates display a very similar regional hierarchy with female rates in the north as much as 50 higher than those in the south and that there is an even steeper north south gradient in some of the components of non employment for example sickness and disability rates for females in the

an oligopoly model of dynamic advertising competition abstract an oligopoly model is presented that allows the determination of feedback nash equilibrium advertising strategies for an oligopoly analyses of symmetric and asymmetric oligopolies with the model show that unit contribution and advertising effectiveness have positive effects on a competitor s own advertising and steady state sales while discount rate and decay rate have negative effects an asymmetric analysis further shows that unit contribution and advertising effectiveness affect positively and discount rate and decay rate negatively a competitor s rivals advertising but have effects in opposite directions regarding rivals steady state sales the symmetric and asymmetric analyses also show that steady state sales per competitor decline with the number of competitors in the oligopoly while total oligopoly steady state sales increase the model is applied empirically to the triopolistic competition involving anheuser busch sabmiller and molson coors in the beer industry

an empirical investigation of advertising strategies in a dynamic duopoly the equilibrium profit maximizing advertising policies of firms operating in a dynamic duopoly are derived by linking in a single framework the econometric estimation of the market response function and the technique of differential games that characterizes dynamic competitive behavior we use the lanchester model of combat to represent the system dynamics that capture the competitive shifts due to investments in advertising by the two market rivals we determine the equilibrium advertising levels using both closed and open loop policies we also compare these equilibrium advertising policies for each firm to those obtained using an optimal control theory formulation wherein the advertising spending levels of the rival are assumed to be known the empirical results obtained by analyzing the advertising rivalry between coke and pepsi for the period 1968 1981 under the above three alternative spending policies provide some interesting insights into the nature of competition between these two market rivals a significant contribution of this paper is to extend the existing literature on advertising competition by integrating theoretical and empirical analyses

competitive dynamic advertising a modification of the case game abstract in this paper we consider a modified version of the advertising differential game of case 1979 we derive non cooperative nash equilibria for open loop controls as well as for feedback strategies we consider finite and infinite planning horizons the feedback equilibrium is shown to be robust against stochastic disturbances of the state equation

exchange rate exposure hedging and the use of foreign currency derivatives abstract we examine whether firms use foreign currency derivatives for hedging or for speculative purposes using a sample of s p 500 nonfinancial firms for 1993 we find evidence that firms use currency derivatives for hedging as their use significantly reduces the exchange rate exposure firms face we also find that while the decision to use derivatives depends on exposure factors i e foreign sales and foreign trade and on variables largely associated with theories of optimal hedging i e size and r d expenditures the level of derivatives used depends only on a firm s exposure through foreign sales and trade

empirical analysis of closed loop duopoly advertising strategies closed loop perfect equilibria in a lanchester duopoly differential game of advertising competition are used as the basis for empirical investigation two systems of simultaneous nonlinear equations are formed one from a general lanchester model and one from a constrained model two empirical applications are conducted in one involving coca cola and pepsi cola a formal statistical testing procedure is used to detect whether closed loop equilibrium advertising strategies are used by the competitors rather than open loop strategies in the second application involving anheuser busch and miller the general model is estimated results indicate that closed loop equilibria better explain dynamic advertising competition than do open loop equilibria also closed loop equilibrium advertising strategies implied by model estimates show that competitive advertising levels may or may not be monotonic in market share