bank runs liquidity costs and investment distortions abstract in this paper we extend the diamond and dybvig 1983 model of intermediation to study further the conditions under which bank runs can occur and to consider how private parties might adjust to the existence of bank run equilibria we provide weaker necessary conditions for runs we then characterize how banks respond to the possibility of runs in their design of deposit contracts and investment decisions banks might choose to offer contracts that prevent runs but under some conditions the second best contracts will involve accepting some risk of runs in order to achieve higher expected returns from their investments

a stochastic latent moment model for electricity price formation the wide range of models needed to support the various short term operations for electricity generation demonstrates the importance of accurate specifications for the uncertainty in market prices this is becoming increasingly challenging since electricity hourly price densities exhibit a variety of shapes with their characteristic features changing substantially within the day and over time and the influx of renewable power wind and solar in particular has amplified these effects a general purpose analytically tractable representation of the stochastic price formation process would have considerable value for operations control and trading but existing empirical approaches for the application of standard density functions are unsatisfactory we develop a general four parameter stochastic model for hourly prices in which the four moments of the density function are dynamically estimated as latent state variables and furthermore modelled as functions of several plausible exogenous drivers this provides a transparent and credible model that is suffciently flexible to capture the shape shifting effects particularly with respect to the wind and solar output variations causing dynamic switches in the upside and downside risks extensive testing on german wholesale price data benchmarked against quantile regression and other models in out of sample backtesting validated the approach and its analytical appeal

exchange rate regimes banking and the non tradable sector abstract this paper presents a small open economy two good version of the diamond and dybvig model with cash constraints to analyze the implications on banking of different exchange rate regimes and monetary policies i show that fixed exchange rates with a central bank providing liquidity in local currency imply pareto efficiency with conditions for a run equilibrium stronger than in the literature in a flexible exchange rate regime multiple equilibria may not be eliminated in particular for very a expansive monetary policy there exists an equilibrium where a fraction of patient consumers purchases dollars in the interim period which constitutes a partial currency run a dollarized banking system without international short run credit may also implement the efficient allocation under certain conditions

a critical review of contagion risk in banking the recent financial crisis has focused the attention of scholars and policymakers on how to improve financial stability through better macro prudential regulation and supervision in this paper we compare the existing theoretical and empirical literature on contagion through the banking system it is argued that the structure of the interbank market the size of banks the linkages among them the level of correlation of their investments and the transparency of the regulator are key factors in determining the possibility of contagion we discuss the different findings and present avenues for future research

understanding the family gap in pay for women with children as the gender gap in pay between women and men has been narrowing the family gap in pay between mothers and nonmothers has been widening one reason may be the institutional structure in the united states which has emphasized equal pay and opportunity policies but not family policies in contrast to other countries that have implemented both the authors now have evidence on the links between one such family policy and women s pay recent research suggests that maternity leave coverage by raising women s retention after childbirth also raises women s levels of work experience job tenure and pay

discrimination in an equilibrium search model i construct an equilibrium search model where some employers have a distaste for hiring minority workers and show that this bias results in economic discrimination against minority workers although only unprejudiced firms hire minority workers minority workers receive lower wages than workers not facing discrimination whenever any employers in the market have a distaste for minority workers one implication of the model is that gender or racial wage differentials understate the utility loss from discrimination in addition the wages of minority workers increase when their proportion increases in the labor market

labor markets as gendered institutions equality efficiency and empowerment issues abstract labor markets are gendered institutions operating at the intersection of the productive and reproductive economies participation in labor markets does not automatically empower women reduction in gender differentials in earnings may be the result of harmonizing down rather than up discrimination against women may persist because in the absence of institutional changes it is profitable it is important to distinguish between static and dynamic and micro and macro efficiency labor market regulation has an important role to play in the institutional transformation needed to reconcile goals of efficiency and equality

women and globalization a study of 180 countries 1975 2000 how do rising levels of international interconnectedness affect social economic and political conditions for women research on gender and international relations frequently offers clear propositions but seldom submits them to broad quan titative testing this article begins to fill that gap we advance the hypothesis that on balance and over time increasing cross national exchange and communication lead to improvements in women s status and equality economic aspects of global ization can bring new opportunities and resources to women but equally important globalization promotes the diffusion of ideas and norms of equality for women in an analysis of 180 countries from 1975 to 2000 employing cross sectional time series regression techniques we examine the impact of several measures of global ization on women s levels of life expectancy literacy and participation in the economy and parliamentary office international trade foreign direct investment membership in the united nations un and world bank and ratification of the convention on the elimination of all forms of discrimination against women cedaw are asso ciated with improved conditions for women how do rising levels of international interconnectedness affect the social eco nomic and political conditions for women competing hypotheses are easy to identify indeed research on gender and international relations sometimes offers clear propositions but seldom submits them to broad quantitative testing this article begins to fill that gap we expect to find a considerably mixed picture some women will benefit from globalization and some will be hurt the status of women will improve in some respects but not others nevertheless we advance the hypothesis that on balance and over time increasing cross national exchange

a model of the interactions between banking crises and currency crises abstract a second generation model of currency crises is combined with a standard banking model in a pegged exchange rate regime after funds have been committed to the banks news arrives about the quality of the banks assets and about the exchange rate fundamentals a run on the banks may cause a currency crisis or vice versa there are multiple equilibria with either twin crises or no crisis depending on depositors expectations of other depositors actions suspension of deposit convertibility can prevent a speculative attack on the currency but last resort lending to solvent banks can induce one

gender time use and change the impact of the cut flower industry in ecuador this article uses survey data from ecuador to examine the effects of women s employment on the allocation of paid and unpaid labor within the household the reader compares a region with high demand for female labor with a similar region in which demand for female labor is low the comparison suggests that market labor opportunities for women have no effect on women s total time in labor but increase men s time in unpaid labor the increase in men s time in unpaid work reflects women s increased bargaining power in the home

trade and search generated unemployment we argue that trade economists should begin to seriously consider environments in which unemployment is carefully modeled we introduce such a model derive several results and compare them to results derived in full employment models we argue that some traditional results are probably too narrow the determinants of comparative advantage and that some results do not generalize to models with unemployment the link between trade and income distribution for employed factors we also show that in some important cases results do generalize there is an extended stolper samuelson theorem that links trade to the distribution of income for searching factors and that our model allows us to address issues that traditional models cannot handle the impact of trade on unemployment and the welfare of the unemployed 1999 elsevier science b v all rights reserved

the structure of simple general equilibrium models with frictional unemployment we develop a two sector general equilibrium model in which equilibrium unemployment arises endogenously because of trading frictions in the labor market of one sector externalities inherent in the search process lead to inefficient equilibria and this has important implication for the basic structure of the economy in particular the relationship between factor rewards and commodity prices is fundamentally different from the analogous relationship in a frictionless economy one implication is that the economy s relative supply curve may be downward sloping especially when the search sector is small we also present several applications of the analysis

equity market and foreign capital i present a model that demonstrates that the market mechanism is not always effective in stabilizing an open equity market foreign capital inflows create multiple equilibria in the equity market which may simultaneously trigger a currency crisis as well as an equity market crash even if the equity market is well developed l auteur presente un modele qui montre que le mecanisme de marche n est pas toujours efficace pour stabiliser un marche ouvert d actions les influx de capitaux etrangers creent de multiples equilibres dans le marche des actions qui peuvent simultanement engendrer une crise de la monnaie et un effondrement du marche des actions meme si le marche des actions est bien developpe

globalisation women s economic rights and forced labour economy s penetration by foreign direct investment by and large has no sta tistically significant impact globalisation might weaken the general bargaining position of labour such that outcome related la bour standards might suffer however being more open toward trade is likely to promote rather than hinder the realisation of t wo labour rights considered as core or fundamental by the international labour organisation namely the elimination of economic discrimination and of forced labour

banks debt maturity and financial crises abstract we develop a model in which the maturity of external debt of banks their level of international reserves and the term structure of interest rates are jointly determine self fulfilling runs may occur and banks take this possibility into account when choosing the structure of their assets and liabilities if the probability of a run is sufficiently small banks will deliberately choose an illiquid asset liability position and expose themselves to a run in that case short term debt will be cheaper than long term debt and the maturity structure of foreign debt will depend on attitudes towards risk

bank runs as an equilibrium phenomenon a standard demand deposit contract in which individuals are entitled to their full deposit at any time provided the bank is solvent is analyzed in a context in which there are no exogenous events on which agents condition their behavior and a unique equilibrium involving a bank run with positive probability is shown to exist

does short term debt increase vulnerability to crisis evidence from the east asian financial crisis abstract does short term debt increase vulnerability to financial crisis or does short term debt reflect rather than cause the incipient crisis we study the role that short term debt played in the collapse of the east asian financial sector in 1997 1998 we alleviate concerns about the endogeneity of short term debt by using long term debt obligations that matured during the crisis we find that debt obligations issued at least three years before the crisis had a negative albeit sometimes insignificant effect on the probability of failure our results are consistent with the view that short term debt reflects rather than causes distress in financial institutions

informational contagion of bank runs in a third generation crisis model abstract this paper highlights the international spread of bank runs in a third generation model of financial crises through an informational channel banks short term liabilities include loans granted by foreign creditors who have imperfect information about the liquidation costs of banks assets a bank panic in a country induces lenders to downgrade early liquidation yields in other countries and thus to require higher interest rates to enable their banks to roll over their maturing debt those banks become therefore more prone to self fulfilling depositors runs the paper then studies the effect on contagion of increased transparency and bailouts

financial crises and balance of payments crises a simple model of the southern cone experience abstract this paper starts from a simple model of the domestic banking sector and develops the potentially destabilizing macroeconomic consequences of its role in intermediating foreign capital inflows both financial and balance of payments crises may result reminiscent of the southern cone experience

gender inequality and economic growth a cross country analysis abstract this paper investigates empirically the determinants of economic growth for a set of semi industrialized export oriented economies in which women provide the bulk of labor in the export sector the primary hypothesis tested is that gender inequality which contributes to women s relatively lower wages was a stimulus to growth via the effect on exports during 1975 95 empirical analysis shows that gdp growth is positively related to gender wage inequality in contrast to recent work which suggests that income inequality slows growth evidence also indicates that part of the impact of gender wage inequality on growth is transmitted through its positive effect on investment as a share of gdp

earnings differentiation in the tourism industry gender human capital and socio demographic effects abstract this paper draws attention to a somewhat neglected field within tourism research namely the production side of tourism set within a human capital framework the purpose of the study is to examine if and how the variables education work experience and the socio demographic variables parenthood and marriage affect norwegian tourism employees annual wages in the 1994 2002 period furthermore the study specifically examines how the variables gender and time affect these wages among several findings four are of major importance 1 male tourism employees receive about 20 higher wages annually than their female counterparts ceteris paribus 2 there is a concave i e inverted u relationship between work experience and annual wages for both female and male employees but this pattern is much less distinct for females 3 both parenthood and marriage affect wages but their effects differ between male and female employees 4 all tourism employees experience a positive annual wage development in the period studied

good bye financial repression hello financial crash some unintended consequences of financial liberalization in latin america are analyzed in this paper intrinsic imperfectious in financial markets and the policy dilemmas they pose are reviewed first the stylized facts of southern cone experiments in financial liberization are then presented alternative ways of organlzing domestic capital markets under latin american conditions are discussed and an eclectic reform mongering program is proposed

on the effectiveness of capital controls the experience of colombia during the 1990s abstract this paper analyzes the effectiveness of capital controls in colombia the evidence presented points towards a relative inability of the measures adopted to reduce the level of capital inflows nonetheless the evidence suggests that non remunerated deposits have been successful in inducing a recomposition of foreign liabilities in favor of long term maturities it is likely that this is a positive result as it has made the country less vulnerable to a reversal in capital flows in this sense controls may be viewed as an effective way of internalizing the negative externality imposed by short term maturities

gender and trade aspects of labour markets we provide a comprehensive up to date review of the large body of theory and evidence on the linkages between trade liberalisation and gender inequality in income as well as two of the latter s key underlying determinants wages and employment on balance the evidence for developing countries points to an overall beneficial impact of trade expansion on female employment both relative to male employment and in absolute terms although largely concentrated in unskilled manufacturing by contrast the bulk of the evidence suggests a widening gender wage gap as a result of freer trade

export orientation and female share of employment evidence from turkey abstract we investigate the relationship between export orientation and female share of employment in the turkish manufacturing sector during 1983 85 following the onset of export led industrialization policies using plant level data we find that female share of employment in a plant increases with the export to total output ratio of its sector the contribution of the study to the literature is its use of plant level data for a large number of plants enabling us to control for other determinants of female share of employment such as workers skill composition at the plant level

uncertainty capital flows and maturity mismatch abstract this paper explores a how the financial uncertainty generated by volatile international capital flows interacts with maturity mismatch on the balance sheets of nonfinancial firms to increase the volatility of output investment and total factor productivity tfp in emerging market economies i build a model of a small open economy in which financial frictions force firms to fund long term projects with short term debt in response to changes in the level of uncertainty regarding the availability of foreign borrowing firms adjust their long term investment contributing to the volatility of investment and output as well as generating endogenous fluctuations in aggregate productivity using data from a panel of major emerging markets i show that the volatility of portfolio debt flows negatively affects output by dampening investment while the volatility of equity flows which do not generate maturity mismatch has no effect consistent with the mechanism in the model the negative impact of capital flow volatility is larger at low levels of financial development and in industries with longer time to build lags my estimates imply that shocks to capital flow volatility account for one fifth of the excess output volatility of the emerging markets in my sample relative to a set of small open advanced economies

reserve accumulation and financial crises from individual protection to systemic risk abstract this paper provides a new perspective on the relationship between countries international reserve holdings and financial crises while the local view holds that reserves may prevent domestic crises it overlooks that the accumulation of reserves relaxes the financing constraint of the reserve currency country and may cause a financial crisis in the centre which is transmitted globally according to this global view reserve accumulation might destabilize the international financial system since the crisis affects all countries alike the accumulation of reserves imposes a negative externality on non accumulating countries we integrate this idea in a theoretical model of the optimal amount of reserves and illustrate the gap between local and global optimality the consideration of systemic risk lowers the demand for reserves moreover if a supranational authority determines the optimal level of reserves it internalizes the negative externality and accumulates fewer reserves a macroprudential tax on reserve hoardings might implement the socially optimal solution our calibration analysis shows that these considerations are economically significant they lower the optimal amount of reserves in the benchmark case by 45

globalization and the gender wage gap there are several theoretical reasons why globalization will have a narrowing as well as widening effect on the gender wage gap but little is known about the actual impact except for a number of country studies the author provides a cross country study of the impact of globalization on the occupational gender wage gap based on the rarely used but most far ranging survey of wages around the world the international labour organization s october inquiry this annual survey was started in 1924 and contains a wealth of information on wages and the gender wage gap for the period 1983 99 there is information on the gender wage gap in 161 narrowly defined occupations in more than 80 countries around the world the author finds the following i the occupational gender wage gap appears to be narrowing with increases in gdp per capita ii there is a significantly narrowing impact of trade and foreign direct investment fdi net inflows on the occupational gender wage gap for low skill occupations both in poorer and richer countries and for high skill occupations in richer countries iii there is no evidence of a narrowing impact of trade but there is evidence of a widening impact of fdi net inflows on the high skill occupational gender wage gap in poorer countries iv wage setting institutions have a strong impact on the occupational gender wage gap in richer countries

public finance from a gender perspective abstract conventional macroeconomic policy design has ignored the way in which gender relations result in distortions caused by biased and absent markets cutbacks in public expenditure have tended to worsen these distortions and crowd out women s contributions to economic growth a new approach to macro policy however is emerging in some international organizations which stresses the complementarity of public investment and private production this opens the way for examining taxation and expenditure through a gender lens to reveal how spreading the burden of the reproduction tax can promote the development of well functioning labor markets and contribute to equitable and sustainable growth

oligopsony and monopsonistic competition in labor markets we argue that models of oligopsony or monopsonistic competition provide insights and explanation for many empirical phenomena in labor markets using a simple model with job differentiation and preference heterogeneity we illustrate how such models can be employed to explain the existence of wage dispersion the persistence of labor market discrimination market failures in the provision of training and the anomalous employment effects of minimum wages

trade and labour standards will there be a race to the bottom the objective of this paper is to investigate whether international rivalry will lead to a race to the bottom rtb in labour standards we derive the equilibrium levels of labour standards in an environment that is most conducive to a rtb specifically the brander and spencer 1985 model of strategic trade in which each government has an incentive to lower the cost of a domestic firm our analysis suggests that strategic trade considerations do not lead to a rtb in labour standards to the contrary equilibrium labour standards are higher than those in the absence of government intervention in the case where governments are free to choose the rate of an export subsidy labour standards are inefficiently high binding global trade rules that reduce the subsidy rate would move the equilibrium labour standards closer to their efficient level and a prohibition of the subsidy would eliminate the efficiency loss in labour markets

banks and liquidity crises in emerging market economies abstract this paper presents and analyzes a simple banking model in which banks have access to international capital markets and domestic asset markets the model generates two types of equilibria a no default equilibrium and a mixed equilibrium in the no default equilibrium all banks are symmetric and always solvent while in the mixed equilibrium some banks can be internationally illiquid and default simultaneously the latter equilibrium captures the basic features of banking crises after financial liberalization in emerging market economies in this case a large capital inflow leads to high asset price volatility and magnifies a banking crisis

international trade and the gender wage gap new evidence from india s manufacturing sector summary this study examines how increasing competitive forces from india s trade liberalization have affected women s relative wages and employment neoclassical theory implies that costly discrimination against female workers should diminish over time with increased competition we incorporate this idea into a theoretical model of competition and industry concentration and test the model using repeated cross sections of india s national sample survey organization nsso household survey data merged with trade and production data from 1983 to 2004 estimates from ordinary least squares ols and fixed effects regressions at the industry level indicate that increasing openness to trade is associated with larger wage gaps in india s concentrated manufacturing industries

gender wage inequality and export led growth in south korea this article investigates the relationship between gender wage inequality and export led growth in south korea the persistent gender wage gap in korea s manufacturing sector is found to be linked to women s segregation in the country s major export industries where real wage growth has lagged productivity growth despite favorable market conditions that might drive up women s wages relative to those of men the interaction of state and firm level hiring training and promotion practices that structure women s and men s employment opportunities differently appear to have resulted in a relatively weaker fall back position for women in labour markets econometric results are consistent with the hypothesis that women s weaker fall back position limits their ability to bargain for wage increases commensurate with productivity growth further evidence is presented which links gender wage inequality to the growth of korean exports