using maimonides rule to estimate the effect of class size on scholastic achievement the twelfth century rabbinic scholar maimonides proposed a maximum class size of 40 this same maximum induces a nonlinear and nonmonotonic relationship between grade enrollment and class size in israeli public schools today maimonides rule of 40 is used here to construct instrumental variables estimates of effects of class size on test scores the resulting identiecation strategy can be viewed as an application of donald campbell s regression discontinuity design to the class size question the estimates show that reducing class size induces a signiecant and substantial increase in test scores for fourth and efth graders although not for third graders when asked about their views on class size in surveys parents and teachers generally report that they prefer smaller classes this may be because those involved with teaching believe that smaller classes promote student learning or simply because smaller classes offer a more pleasant environment for the pupils and teachers who are in them mueller chase and walden 1988 social scientists and school administrators also have a longstanding interest in the class size question class size is often thought to be easier to manipulate than other school inputs and it is a variable at the heart of policy debates on school quality and the allocation of school resources in many countries see e g robinson 1990 for the united states ofsted 1995 for the united kingdom and moshel ravid 1995 for israel this broad interest in the consequences of changing class size

does public insurance crowd out private insurance the cost of expanding public sector health programs depends critically on the extent to which public eligibility will cover just the uninsured or will crowd out existing private insurance coverage we estimate the extent of crowd out arising from the expansions of medicaid to pregnant women and children over the 1987 1992 period we estimate that approximately 50 percent of the increase in medicaid coverage was associated with a reduction in private insurance coverage this occurred largely because employees took up employer based insurance less frequently there is also some evidence that employers contributed less for insurance and that workers dropped coverage of dependents

educational policy and the economics of the family this paper analyzes the implications of alternative ways to model decision making by families for educational policy we show that many of the policy implications associated with credit constraints cannot be distinguished from the implications of models of the family that differ from the conventional barro becker model we then argue that it is the combination of credit constraints and non conventional preferences that provides a robust basis for government intervention to promote educational investment

remedying education evidence from two randomized experiments in india this paper presents the results of a two year randomized evaluation of a large scale remedial education program conducted in mumbai and vadodara india the remedial education program hires young women from the community to teach basic literacy and numeracy skills to children who reach standard three or four without having mastered these competencies the program implemented by a ngo in collaboration with the government is extremely cheap it cost 5 dollars per child per year and is easily replicable it has been implemented in 20 indian cities and reached tens of thousands of children we find the program to be very effective on average it increased learning by 0 15 standard deviations in the first year and 0 25 in the second year the gains are the largest for children at the bottom of the distribution children in the bottom third gain 0 2 standard deviations in the first year and 0 32 in the second year in math they gain 0 51 standard deviation in the second year the results are similar in the two grade levels and in the two cities at the margin extending this program would be up to 12 16 times more cost effective than hiring new teachers authors

are there dynamic gains from a poor area development program poor area development programs in which the government transfers extra resources to unusually poor areas have been widely used to fight poverty there has been some research on such programs but little is known about their impact on household living standards over time the authors address the issue for a sizable poor area development program in rural china china s program had a significant impact on rural living standards in the targeted areas of the sample the consumption growth model suggests that households living in the targeted areas had a higher rate of consumption growth than one would have otherwise expected nonetheless the authors found that while the gains in growth were enough to prevent an absolute decline in average living standards they were not enough to reverse the strong underlying divergent tendencies in the rural economy

students today teachers tomorrow identifying constraints on the provision of education with an estimated 115 million children not attending primary school in the developing world increasing access to education is critical resource constraints limit the effectiveness of demand based subsidies this paper focuses on the importance of a supply side factor the availability of low cost teachers and the resulting ability of the market to offer affordable education the authors first show that private schools are three times more likely to emerge in villages with government girls secondary schools gss identification is obtained by using official school construction guidelines as an instrument for the presence of gss in contrast there is little or no relationship between the presence of a private school and girls primary or boys primary and secondary government schools in support of a supply channel the authors then show that for villages that received a gss there are over twice as many educated women and that private school teachers wages are 27 percent lower in these villages in an environment with poor female education and low mobility gss substantially increase the local supply of skilled women lowering wages locally and allowing the market to offer affordable education these findings highlight the prominent role of women as teachers in facilitating educational access and resonate with similar historical evidence from developed economies the students of today are the teachers of tomorrow

shadow economies at times of banking crises empirics and theory this paper investigates the response of the shadow economy to banking crises our empirical analysis based on a large sample of countries suggests that the informal sector is a powerful buffer which expands at times of banking crises and absorbs a large proportion of the fall in official output to rationalise our evidence we build a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model which accounts for financial and labour market frictions and for nominal rigidities in line with the empirical literature on the shadow economy we assume that in the informal sector access to external finance is limited and the production technology is relatively more labour intensive following a banking shock in the official sector the model predicts a large negative transmission to the unofficial economy that substantially dampens the overall effect of the shock

saving investment correlations and capital mobility on the evidence from annual data this paper evaluates the use of saving investment correlations to measure capital mobility it is argued that the intertemporal approach to the balance of payments predicts that the practice of calculating the correlation coefficient using long term averages of saving and investment shares biases the result toward accepting the hypothesis of capital immobility calculations based on annual data show that the correlation coefficient is much lower and that is varies considerably estimates of intranational capital mobility based on saving and investment shares of u s federal states show that the saving and investment link is much looser within a nation than among nations copyright 1992 by royal economic society

conditional cash transfers and female schooling the impact of the female school stipend program on public school enrollments in punjab pakistan instead of mean tested conditional cash transfer cct programs some countries have implemented gender targeted ccts to explicitly address intra household disparities in human capital investments this study focuses on addressing the direct impact of a female school stipend program in punjab pakistan did the intervention increase female enrollment in public schools to address this question the authors draw on data from the provincial school censuses of 2003 and 2005 they estimate the net growth in female enrollments in grades 6 8 in stipend eligible schools impact evaluation analysis including difference and difference dd triple differencing ddd and regression discontinuity design rdd indicate a modest but statistically significant impact of the intervention the preferred estimator derived from a combination of ddd and rdd empirical strategies suggests that the average program impact between 2003 and 2005 was an increase of six female students per school in terms of absolute change and an increase of 9 percent in female enrollment in terms of relative change a triangulation effort is also undertaken using two rounds of a nationally representative household survey before and after the intervention even though the surveys are not representative at the subprovincial level the results corroborate evidence of the impact using school census data

selection on observed and unobserved variables assessing the effectiveness of catholic schools in this paper we measure the effect of catholic high school attendance on educational attainment and test scores because we do not have a good instrumental variable for catholic school attendance we develop new estimation methods based on the idea that the amount of selection on the observed explanatory variables in a model provides a guide to the amount of selection on the unobservables we also propose an informal way to assess selectivity bias based on measuring the ratio of selection on unobservables to selection on observables that would be required if one is to attribute the entire effect of catholic school attendance to selection bias we use our methods to estimate the effect of attending a catholic high school on a variety of outcomes our main conclusion is that catholic high schools substantially increase the probability of graduating from high school and more tentatively attending college we find little evidence of an effect on test scores

arrival of young talent the send down movement and rural education in china this paper estimates the effects on rural education of the send down movement during the cultural revolution when about 16 million urban youth were mandated to resettle in the countryside using a county level dataset compiled from local gazetteers and population censuses we show that greater exposure to the sent down youths significantly increased rural children s educational achievement this positive effect diminished after the urban youth left the countryside in the late 1970s but never disappeared rural children who interacted with the sent down youths were also more likely to pursue more skilled occupations marry later and have smaller families than those who did not

pulled away or pushed out explaining the decline of teacher aptitude in the united states logic suggests that a teacher s value added is related to her academic aptitude it is therefore troubling that teachers aptitude has declined significantly in the united states since 1960 as demonstrated by sean corcoran et al 2002 combining longitudinal surveys they find a marked fall in teachers propensity to be in the top achievement quartile there are two main hypotheses for the decline in teacher aptitude first greater pay parity with males in nonteaching occupations may have drawn able women out of teaching second unionization may have compressed pay benefits and nonmonetary returns to aptitude in teaching and thereby pushed out high aptitude people in short there is a pull hypothesis pay parity in alternative opportunities and a push hypothesis pay compression in teaching the hypotheses are not mutually exclusive we need not choose between them instead we try to apportion blame to do this we need variation in the timing and size of the pull and push factors fortunately such variation exists among u s states our econometric identification relies on variation in labor markets and unionization laws among states at a point in time and within each state over time

incentives work getting teachers to come to school we use a randomized experiment and a structural model to test whether monitoring and financial incentives can reduce teacher absence and increase learning in india in treatment schools teachers attendance was monitored daily using cameras and their salaries were made a nonlinear function of attendance teacher absenteeism in the treatment group fell by 21 percentage points relative to the control group and the children s test scores increased by 0 17 standard deviations we estimate a structural dynamic labor supply model and find that teachers respond strongly to financial incentives our model is used to compute cost minimizing compensation policies jel i21 j31 j45 o15

experimental estimates of education production functions this paper analyzes data on 11 600 students and their teachers who were randomly assigned to different size classes from kindergarten through third grade statistical methods are used to adjust for nonrandom attrition and transitions between classes the main conclusions are 1 on average performance on standardized tests increases by four percentile points the first year students attend small classes 2 the test score advantage of students in small classes expands by about one percentile point per year in subsequent years 3 teacher aides and measured teacher characteristics have little effect 4 class size has a larger effect for minority students and those on free lunch 5 hawthorne effects were unlikely

capital mobility and the relationship between saving and investment rates in oecd countries abstract this paper considers tests that use data on saving and investment rates to determine the degree of international capital mobility two types of evidence are presented to show that a high correlation between saving and investment rates across oecd countries can be consistent with a high degree of capital mobility this evidence qualifies the conclusions of previous studies and casts doubt on the usefulness of testing hypotheses about capital mobility with data on saving and investment rates

school subsidies for the poor evaluating the mexican progresa poverty program abstract this paper evaluates how the progresa program which provides poor mothers in rural mexico with education grants has affected enrollment poor children who reside in communities randomly selected to participate in the initial phase of the progresa are compared to those who reside in other control communities pre program comparisons check the randomized design and double difference estimators of the program s effect on the treated are calculated by grade and sex probit models are also estimated for the probability that a child is enrolled controlling for additional characteristics of the child their parents local schools and community and for sample attrition to evaluate the sensitivity of the program estimates these estimates of program short run effects on enrollment are extrapolated to the lifetime schooling and the earnings of adults to approximate the internal rate of return on the public schooling subsidies as they increase expected private wages

the state socialization and private schooling when will governments support alternative producers abstractunderstanding the institutional features that can improve learning outcomes and reduce inequality is a top priority for international and development organisations around the world economists appear to have a good case for support to non governmental alternatives as suppliers of schooling however unlike other policy domains freer international trade or privatisation economists have been remarkably unsuccessful in promoting the adoption of this idea we develop a general positive model of why governments typically produce schooling which introduces the key notion of the lack of verifiability of socialisation and instruction of beliefs which makes third party contracting for socialisation problematic we use the model to explain variations around the world in levels of private schooling we also predict the circumstances in which efforts to promote the different alternatives to government production like charter voucher and scholarship are likely to be successful

school inputs and educational outcomes in south africa we examine the relationship between educational inputs primarily pupilteacher ratios and school outcomes in south africa immediately before the end of apartheid government black households were severely limited in their residential choice under apartheid and attended schools for which funding decisions were made centrally by white controlled entities over which they had no control the allocations resulted in marked disparities in average class sizes controlling for household background variables we find strong and significant effects of pupilteacher ratios on enrollment on educational achievement and on test scores for numeracy

every catholic child in a catholic school historical resistance to state schooling contemporary private competition and student achievement across countries nineteenth century catholic doctrine strongly opposed state schooling we show that countries with larger shares of catholics in 1900 but without a catholic state religion tend to have larger shares of privately operated schools even today we use this historical pattern as a natural experiment to estimate the causal effect of contemporary private competition on student achievement in cross country student level analyses our results show that larger shares of privately operated schools lead to better student achievement in mathematics science and reading and to lower total education spending even after controlling for current catholic shares

report cards the impact of providing school and child test scores on educational markets this paper studies study the impact of providing school and child test scores on subsequent test scores prices and enrollment in markets with multiple public and private providers a randomly selected half of the sample villages markets received report cards this increased test scores by 0 11 standard deviations decreased private school fees by 17 percent and increased primary enrollment by 4 5 percent heterogeneity in the treatment impact by initial school quality is consistent with canonical models of asymmetric information information provision facilitates better comparisons across providers improves market efficiency and raises child welfare through higher test scores higher enrollment and lower fees

investment credit and child labour it is generally assumed that credit has a positive effect on children s schooling among poor households this article shows that need not be the case when households obtain credit for investment purposes in fact investment loans may not have any effect on the likelihood of schooling for children who work in their family business our estimates confirm that this is the case credit used to finance investments has no effect on the odds of schooling for employed children this may be because investment loans increase children s labour productivity which in turn increases the opportunity cost of schooling the results of this study suggest that improving access to credit may not by itself constitute a solution to the problem of child labour in developing countries

is public expenditure productive abstract this paper considers the relationship between aggregate productivity and stock and flow government spending variables the empirical results indicate that i the nonmilitary public capital stock is dramatically more important in determining productivity than is either the flow of nonmilitary or military spending ii military capital bears little relation to productivity and iii a core infrastructure of streets highways airports mass transit sewers water systems etc has most explanatory power for productivity the paper also suggests an important role for the net public capital stock in the productivity slowdown of the last fifteen years

economic underdevelopment the case of a missing market for human capital abstract this paper demonstrates that the coexistence of developed and underdeveloped countries can be a stationary equilibrium in a world economy with free trade in consumption goods and physical capital an underdeveloped country is characterized by a high ratio of unskilled workers in the labor force a small stock of physical capital a low gross national product a high rate of return on human capital and a corresponding large wage differential between skilled and unskilled workers the critical assumptions are that future labor earnings cannot serve as collateral on a loan and indivisibilities in education

schooling and labor market consequences of school construction in indonesia evidence from an unusual policy experiment between 1973 and 1978 the indonesian government engaged in one of the largest school construction programs on record combining differences across regions in the number of schools constructed with differences across cohorts induced by the timing of the program suggests that each primary school constructed per 1 000 children led to an average increase of 0 12 to 0 19 years of education as well as a 1 5 to 2 7 percent increase in wages this implies estimates of economic returns to education ranging from 6 8 to 10 6 percent

vignettes on the world capital market this paper is motivated by a sense that we as a profession need to understand much better than we now do how the world capital market works we seem to be genuinely schizophrenic in the ways we build models many of them are closedeconomy models in which the rest of the world does not even appear yet others of them are models of the small open economy in which hardly any degree of freedom is left for economic policy to influence events lying behind the schizophrenia is i believe a genuine ignorance on our collective part of how the world capital market

on the fiscal policy implications of low capital mobility some further evidence from cross country time series data in an attempt to determine whether an increase in a nation s private saving stimulated say by tax policies raises domestic investment or flows abroad feldstein and horioka 4 and feldstein 2 examined the relationship between the saving and investment rates of a sample of industrialized countries their results pointed to the existence of a strong almost one to one relationship between investment and saving rates they interpreted that finding as implying that the assumption of perfect capital mobility is invalid in that sustained increases in domestic saving rates induce approximately equal increases in domestic investment rates 2 150 the finding has farreaching implications for instance with low international capital mobility a country s growth prospects are tied to its saving effort if the saving effort is weak relative to investment opportunities realized investment rates could fall short of their potential and thus impact adversely on growth it also implies that fiscal deficits lead to neoclassical crowding out of investment so that both the keynesian view as well as the ricardian equivalence proposition do not hold since the feldstein and horioka henceforth denoted by fh article numerous papers have offered alternative explanations for the strong saving investment correlations many of those explanations center on supposed weaknesses of the econometric methodology employed by fh and feldstein one of the arguments initially proposed by fieleke 5 and tobin 19 is the policyresponse argument according to that argument if the government adjusts its policy instruments to offset current account imbalances a strong positive correlation between saving and investment would result however that correlation reflects the policy response and not low capital mobility in a recent paper summers 16 proposed a direct test of that argument and his empirical results