dynamic corn supply functions a model with explicit optimization both static and dynamic models have been used to estimate aggregate supply elasticities for annual crops the early studies relied on static singleequation models in a few variables assumed static price expectations e g kohls and paarlberg and produced very small estimates of own price supply elasticities e g 0 07 for corn nerlove 1956 1958a and nerlove and addison showed that agricultural supply models incorporating adaptive price expectations and or dynamic resource adjustment produced larger estimates of supply elasticities for corn and other agricultural commodities additionally they showed that supply elasticities obtained from static models need not be bounded by the short run and long run supply elasticities of

using genuine savings for climate policy evaluation with an integrated assessment model there has been a recent increase in efforts to develop broader models to assess the impact of climate change and climate change policies both in terms of impact measures beyond gdp and in terms of modelling complexity beyond dice rice models climate policies aimed at reducing co2 emissions can have impacts in multiple sectors of the economy and can change consumption levels over time we show how the sustainability indicator genuine savings can be endogenised within a general equilibrium model and used as a criterion for judging the impacts of such policies in terms of future well being differences in genuine savings rates between co2 emission reduction scenarios are discussed we show how a broader genuine savings based assessment of climate change can result in a re evaluation of the consequences and costs of inaction in terms of various climate change related policies and how multiple environmental and well being outcomes can be analysed within a unified modelling framework

the economic value of farm program base mixed integer programming and dynamic programming models were used to obtain the implicit economic value of the initial endowment of base acreage on a cotton farm while low levels of initial base have almost no impact on land value high levels can be worth a considerable premium with the implicit value of additional initial base endowment increasing at an increasing rate this pattern of increasing implicit value can be explained by provisions of the farm program allowing base to be created by a landowner who develops a planting history in a program commodity

regional climate change policy under positive feedbacks and strategic interactions the surface albedo feedback along with heat and moisture transport from the equator to the poles is associated with polar amplification which is a well established scientific fact the present paper extends brock and xepapadeas in eur econ rev 94 263 282 2017 to a non cooperative framework with polar amplification where regions decide emissions by maximizing own welfare this can be regarded as a case of regional non cooperation regarding climate change open loop and feedback solutions are derived and compared in terms of temperature paths and welfare with the cooperative solution carbon taxes which could bridge the gap between cooperative and non cooperative emissions path are also derived finally the framework is extended to a ramsey set up in which it is shown how the regional climate model can be coupled with standard optimal growth models numerical simulations confirm the theoretical results and provide insights about the size and the direction of deviations between the cooperative and the non cooperative solutions

spatial evolution of social norms in a common pool resource game we study the conditions for the emergence of cooperation in a spatial common pool resource cpr game we consider three types of agents cooperators defectors and enforcers the role of enforcers is to punish defectors for overharvesting the resource agents are located on a circle and they only observe the actions of their two nearest neighbors their payoffs are determined by both local and global interactions and they modify their actions by imitating the strategy in their neighborhood with the highest average payoffs on average using theoretical and numerical analysis we find a large diversity of equilibria to be the outcome of the game in particular we find conditions for the occurrence of equilibria in which the three strategies coexist we also derive the stability of these equilibria finally we show that introducing resource dynamics in the system favors the occurrence of cooperative equilibria

pricing carbon and adjusting capital to fend off climate catastrophes the optimal reaction to a potential productivity shock as a consequence of climate tipping is to substantially tax carbon in order to curb the risk of tipping but to adjust capital as well in order to smooth consumption when tipping occurs we also allow for conventional marginal climate damages and decompose the optimal carbon tax in two catastrophe components and the conventional component we distinguish constant and increasing marginal hazards moreover the productivity catastrophe is compared with recoverable catastrophes and with a shock to the climate sensitivity finally we allow for investments in adaptation capital as an alternative to counter the potential adverse effects of climate tipping quantitatively the results are investigated with a calibrated model for the world economy

as bad as it gets how climate damage functions affect growth and the social cost of carbon the paper analyzes the effects of varying climate impacts on the social cost of carbon and economic growth we use polynomial damage functions in a model of an endogenously growing two sector economy the framework includes nonrenewable natural resources which cause greenhouse gas emissions pollution stock harms capital and reduces economic growth we find a big effect of the selected damage function on the social cost of carbon and a significant impact on the growth rate in our calibration a quartic damage function raises the social cost of carbon by more than a factor of ten compared to the linear function in the social optimum the growth rate remains positive even when the damage function is highly convex we test the robustness of the results by adding pollution decay lowering the elasticity of intertemporal substitution and addressing uncertainty which does not alter our results we find that high marginal climate damages require stringent climate policies but do not preclude positive economic growth despite convexity provided that policies are designed in an efficient manner

the impact of natural disaster on energy consumption international evidence abstract this research shows that natural disasters may hurt energy consumption by using data on 123 countries over the period 1990 2015 and classifying them according to their economic development level and region based on world development indicators we employ a two step system gmm method to examine the effect of natural disasters on energy consumption presenting findings that support our hypotheses in the models and show a strong negative effect for low income countries or those in the africa region after considering an alternative proxy for natural disaster we implement quantile regression methods their results find that natural disasters exhibit a negative and significant impact on oil renewable and nuclear energy consumptions the quantile regression models used in the robustness check present that the effects are stronger for low level energy consumption economies

marginal analysis of welfare costs of environmental policies the case of pesticide regulation we present a methodology for estimating net social welfare costs and their distribution using only information on price quantities elasticities of supply and demand and estimates of cost and or yield effects of policies provided by natural scientists an application to a case of pesticide regulation demonstrates the importance of equity effects simulations show that redistribution of income among producers becomes the dominant effect of pesticide policies when supply elasticities are higher and demand elasticities are lower with changes in supply elasticity having a greater impact than changes in demand elasticity for crops with significant export markets foreign consumers are shown to bear much of the short run cost many cases now exist of legislation and executive orders mandating the use of benefit cost criteria in policy choice to be useful in policy assessments welfare methodologies must meet certain requirements first they must provide estimates of the efficiency impacts of alternative policies measured by changes in net social surplus second estimates of the

the market reaction to international cross listings evidence from depositary receipts abstract this paper examines the stock price impact of international dual listings the sample consists of 181 firms from 35 countries that instituted their first depositary receipt program over the period 1985 1995 the market reaction to a depositary receipt program is larger in magnitude and more pervasive than previously reported the stock price reaction is related to choice of exchange geographical location i e emerging or developed markets and avenues for raising equity capital i e public versus private offerings

storms and jobs the effect of hurricanes on individuals employment and earnings over the long term hurricanes katrina and rita devastated the us gulf coast in 2005 we use job level data to compare the evolution of earnings for affected workers in four states with workers from matched control co

institutional determinants of capital structure adjustment speeds abstract many authors relate a firm s performance to legal and political features and the regulatory environment in which it operates this article compares firms capital structure adjustments across countries and investigates whether institutional differences help explain the variance in estimated adjustment speeds we find that legal and financial traditions significantly correlate with firm adjustment speeds more narrowly institutional features also relate to adjustment speeds consistent with the hypothesis that better institutions lower the transaction costs associated with adjusting a firm s leverage such associations between institutional arrangements and leverage adjustment speeds are consistent with the dynamic trade off theory of capital structure choice

weather variations and international trade in this paper i investigate the effect of weather variations in the exporter and importer countries separately as well as a the difference between weather variations in both countries on bilateral trade flows the analysis is done at the country sectoral and product levels worldwide and over the 1992 2014 period i find a negative effect of temperature variations in the exporter country and in the difference between exporter and importer countries on bilateral trade at the country level at the product level both negative and positive effects arise but the negative effect of temperature dominates the temperature effects are on the agricultural and manufacturing sectors especially in the textile and metals sectors i show that possible channels are the impact of temperature on output and labour productivity the negative impacts are larger in exporter countries that are closer to the equator that have lower quality of institutions and that export to more remote countries if countries are able to adapt to climate change the long term effects of temperature variations should be lower than the contemporaneous effect nevertheless my results on the long term effects analysis do not support this hypothesis suggesting no or very low adaptation moreover the negative effect of temperature is persistent and cumulative through several years after the temperature shock concerning precipitation variation effects they are found mainly at the product level with the positive effect dominating for the affected products

mean reverting financial leverage theory and evidence from pakistan abstractgrounding concepts of the two competing theories of capital structure trade off theory pecking order theory are quite opposite to each other trade off theory claims that there is an optimal target capital structure and firms try to achieve that optimal target point whereas pecking order theory argues that there is no optimal target capital structure but the firms follow a specific pattern of financing using the two competing theoretic frameworks this study applies fisher type panel unit root test to an unbalanced panel data of 13 115 firm year observations of nonfinancial firms listed on karachi stock exchange pakistan spread over 38 years 1973 2010 overall panel test results for short term long term as well as total leverage support trade off financing behaviour while individual firm results do not individual firm results show that only 16 of the firms have short term target 25 of the firms have long term target and 12 of the firms have total target leverage ratio further

acreage decisions under risk the case of corn and soybeans an acreage supply response model is developed under expected utility maximization the resulting framework is used to specify and estimate a system of risk responsive acreage equations for corn and soybeans in the united states particular attention is given to the truncation effects of government price supports on the distribution of corn and soybean prices also a wealth variable is included in the acreage equations the empirical results indicate that risk and wealth variables play an important role in cornsoybean acreage decisions the analysis also shows that cross commodity risk reduction is important in acreage allocation decisions

inflation targeting as a shock absorber abstract we study the characteristics of inflation targeting as a shock absorber using quarterly data for a large panel of countries to overcome an endogeneity problem between monetary regimes and the likelihood of crises we propose to study large natural disasters we find that inflation targeting improves macroeconomic performance following such exogenous shocks it lowers inflation raises output growth and reduces inflation variability compared to alternative monetary regimes this performance is mostly due to a different response of monetary policy and fiscal policy under inflation targeting finally we show that only hard but not soft targeting reaps the rewards deeds not words matter for successful monetary stabilization

the impact of financial liberalization on capital structure adjustment in pakistan a doubly censored modelling abstractthe purpose of the study is to explain adjustment rate towards target capital structure of pakistani nonfinancial listed firms and to investigate the impact of financial liberalization fl on capital structure adjustment rate we control for the unobserved heterogeneity and the fractional nature of adjustment rate by applying an unbiased dynamic panel fractional estimator on an unbalanced panel data of pakistani nonfinancial firms listed during 1972 2010 we find that these firms adjust at an annual rate of 24 51 to reach their capital structure targets we argue that in order to optimize the benefits of fl the government should strengthen financial as well as judicial institutions to enforce the creditors rights that will enable access to more options to pakistani firms to raise cheaper external financing

deep impact geo simulations as a policy toolkit for natural disasters adverse post natural disaster outcomes in low income regions like elevated internal migration levels and low consumption levels are the result of market failures poor mechanisms for stabilizing income and missing insurance markets which force the affected population to respond and adapt to the shock they face in a spatial environment with multiple locations with independent but inter connected markets these transitions quickly become complex and highly non linear due to the feedback loops between the micro individual level decisions and the meso location wise market decisions to capture these continuously evolving micro meso interactions this paper presents a spatially explicit bottom up agent based model to analyze natural disaster like shocks to low income regions the aim of the model is to temporally and spatially track how population distributions income and consumption levels evolve in order to identify low income workers that are food insecure the model is applied to the 2005 earthquake in northern pakistan which faced catastrophic losses and high levels of displacement in a short time span and with market disruptions resulted in high levels of food insecurity the model is calibrated to pre crisis trends and shocked using distance based output and labor loss functions to replicate the earthquake impact model results show how various factors like existing income and saving levels distance from the fault line and connectivity to other locations can give insights into the spatial and temporal emergence of vulnerabilities the simulation framework presented here leaps beyond existing modeling efforts which usually deals with macro long term loss estimates and allows policy makers to come up with informed short term policies in an environment where data is non existent policy response is time dependent and resources are limited

the shocking origins of political transitions evidence from earthquakes do earthquakes trigger political transitions using a rich panel dataset of 160 countries observed over 1950 2007 we find that earthquake shocks measured in terms of the effect of ground motion amplitude on death toll have two contradicting effects on political change on the one hand earthquakes drive transitions into democracy due to an affective shock which we interpret to be the reaction of citizens by which they hold the incumbent government responsible for earthquake damages on the other hand earthquakes indirectly hasten transitions into a less democratic regime because they increase the income level contemporaneously possibly due to short term emergency response and recovery expenditures and thus raising the opportunity cost of contesting the incumbent government overall we show that while not leading to a full fledged regime transition earthquake shocks open a new democratic window of opportunity but this window is narrowed by improved economic conditions

efficient dynamic pollution taxation in an uncertain environment this paper analyzes efficient pollution taxation within a stochastic model of endogenous growth pollution is a by product of production and causes disutility furthermore the productivity which results from environmental quality is uncertain this reflects e g uncertain capital depreciation induced by natural disasters like hurricanes or floods this uncertainty is shown to raise an ambiguous impact on the optimal pollution level as well as on optimal environmental taxation market equilibrium turns out to be suboptimal since the households mis perceive their individual impact on pollution conditions for welfare maximizing pollution taxation are stated and it is shown that a direct pollution tax is not appropriate to yield pareto optimal growth instead a linear capital income tax together with a linear abatement subsidy build an efficient tax scheme if secondarily the governmental budget is balanced moreover an increase in the riskiness of environmental productivity may even lead to an increase in the optimal pollution level and to a decrease in optimal environmental taxation depending predominantly on the preference parameters

the gains from differentiated policies to control stock pollution when producers are heterogeneous we derive optimal input taxes to control stock pollution problems generated by heterogeneous agents the taxes vary over time and in response to differences of asset quality and technology choice we also derive second best policies and compare them to the efficient policy and also among themselves different policies will affect the timing for when and the extent to which conservation technologies are adopted a numerical example based on the california drainage problem shows significant efficiency gains from the optimal policy compared to no intervention but much of the gains are lost with second best interventions the gains from optimal policies do not always increase with the degree of heterogeneity copyright 2008 oxford university press

solving the phosphorus pollution puzzle synthesis and directions for future research despite the success of efforts to reduce phosphorus p pollution from point sources p from non point agricultural sources remains a vexing problem with many u s water bodies having impairments key to solving the p pollution puzzle is to take stock of progress to date the puzzle pieces available and the gaps to be filled in this paper we synthesize the state of knowledge on p pollution discuss the state of existing public programs and review economists contributions to informing p pollution policies we review the water quality valuation literature identifying limitations in the linkages to policy relevant environmental quality metrics we examine how and why p is used agriculturally along with recent advances in market based policy design and field testing we survey new knowledge in biology and engineering including improved understanding of the fate and transport of p in light of recent learning and persistent knowledge gaps we recommend directions for economic research to add needed pieces to the puzzle of how to protect our water bodies puzzle gaps meriting attention include mechanisms to target public funds more effectively in voluntary abatement programs policy design for emerging mitigation technologies new ways to implement performance based policies means to leverage social norms and behavioral cues changes in the pay the polluter paradigm and application of state of the art evaluation methods to conservation programs beyond the realm of public policy lies that of private supply chains where establishment of environmental standards holds additional promise rich research opportunities exist for economists in tandem with biologists engineers and others

an international comparison of capital structure and debt maturity choices this study examines how the institutional environment influences capital structure and debt maturity choices of firms in 39 developed and developing countries we find that a country s legal and tax system corruption and the preferences of capital suppliers explain a significant portion of the variation in leverage and debt maturity ratios specifically firms in more corrupt countries and those with weaker laws tend to use more debt especially short term debt explicit bankruptcy codes and deposit insurance are associated with higher leverage and more long term debt more debt is used in countries where there is a greater tax gain from leverage

bounded price variation models with rational expectations and price risk abstract the bounded price variation model under rational expectations is extended to include higher moments of price in the supply equation the resulting framework is then used to estimate a disequilibrium model of the u s corn market that includes price risk

natural disasters in a two sector model of endogenous growth using an endogenous growth model with physical and human capital accumulation this paper considers the sustainability of economic growth when the use of a polluting input e g fossil fuels intensifies the risk of capital destruction through natural disasters we find that growth is sustainable only if the tax rate on the polluting input increases over time the long term rate of economic growth follows an inverted v shaped curve relative to the growth rate of the environmental tax and it is maximized by the least aggressive tax policy of those that asymptotically eliminate the use of polluting inputs unavailability of insurance can accelerate or decelerate the growth maximizing speed of the tax increase depending on the relative significance of the risk premium and precautionary savings effects welfare is maximized under a milder environmental tax policy especially when the pollutants accumulate gradually

on the existence of an optimal capital structure theory and evidence one of the most contentious issues in the theory of finance during the past quarter century has been the theory of capital structure the geneses of this controversy were the seminal contributions by modigliani and miller 18 19 the general academic view by the mid 1970s although not a consensus was that the optimal capital structure involves balancing the tax advantage of debt against the present value of bankruptcy costs no sooner did this general view become prevalent in the profession than miller 16 presented a new challenge by showing that under certain conditions the tax advantage of debt financing at the firm level is exactly offset by the tax disadvantage of debt at the personal level since then there has developed a burgeoning theoretical literature attempting to reconcile miller s model with the balancing theory of optimal capital structure e g deangelo and masulis 5 kim 12 and modigliani 17 the general result of this work is that if there are significant leverage related costs such as bankruptcy costs agency costs of debt and loss of non debt tax shields and if the income from equity is untaxed then the marginal bondholder s tax rate will be less than the corporate rate and there will be a positive net tax advantage to corporate debt financing the firm s optimal capital structure will involve the trade off between the tax advantage of debt and various leverage related costs the upshot of these extensions of miller s model is the recognition that the existence of an optimal capital structure is essentially an empirical issue as to whether or not the various leverage related costs are economically significant enough to influence the costs of corporate borrowing the miller model and its theoretical extensions have inspired several timeseries studies which provide evidence on the existence of leverage related costs trczinka 28 reports that from examining differences in average yields between taxable corporate bonds and tax exempt municipal bonds one cannot reject the miller hypothesis that the marginal bondholder s tax rate is not different from the corporate tax rate however trczinka is careful to point out that this finding does not necessarily imply that there is no tax advantage of corporate debt if the personal tax rate on equity is positive indeed buser and hess 1 using a longer time series of data and more sophisticated econometric techniques estimate that the average effective personal tax rate on equity is statistically positive and is not of a trivial magnitude more importantly they document evidence that is consistent with the existence of significant leverage related costs in the economy

the implicit value of corn base acreage the impact of recent changes to the u s commodity program and efficacy of environmental regulations designed to discourage continuous corn rotations will depend upon the value farmers place on corn base acreage this paper estimates this value by assuming that the benefits of access to the program are capitalized into farmland rents using iowa rental survey data and a hedonic pricing approach the rent gradient for base acreage is found to be on the order of 12 per acre the discounted stream of returns to base acreage suggests an asset value for corn base of approximately 200 per acre

the dynamics of foreign direct investments in land and pollution accumulation following the recent increase of foreign direct investments in land this paper studies their possible effects on the development of a local economy to this aim we use a two sector model external and local with heterogeneous agents external investors and local land owners we assume that both sectors are negatively affected by pollution but only the external sector is polluting the local government can tax the external sector s production activities to finance environmental defensive expenditures we first examine the equilibria that emerge in the model from the dynamics of pollution and physical capital and then investigate the conditions for the coexistence of the two sectors and the impact of the external sector on the revenues of the local population using numerical simulations we show that a revenue increasing path may occur only if the pollution tax is high enough and the impact of the external sector on pollution is low enough otherwise foreign direct investments may end up impoverishing the local population

the impact of firm characteristics on speed of adjustment to target leverage a uk study abstractresponding to the need to investigate heterogeneity in the speed of adjustment soa to target leverage in a manner that reflects the fractional nature of leverage we estimate soa across sub samples of uk firms using the dynamic panel fractional dpf estimator using firm characteristics to identify firms subject to varying costs of deviation from and adjustment to target leverage we find significant evidence of heterogeneity in the speeds at which uk firms adjust to target leverage our results show that small high growth and low dividend paying firms adjust to target leverage faster than their large low growth and high dividend paying counterparts we also find some evidence to suggest openly held firms adjust faster than closely held firms though our results are not robust to the categorizing criterion employed or target leverage specification

sustainable resource use and economic dynamics we argue that the sustainable use of natural resources has to be placed in a dynamic perspective both in theoretical modelling and in applied research this can be achieved by applying endogenous growth theory and other recent advances in dynamic theory in this paper we discuss five contributions that combine the topics of natural resource use and economic dynamics in particular we show the common features of these contributions thereby providing an overview of a very active and promising research area

why economic dynamics matter in assessing climate change damages illustration on extreme events extreme events are one of the main channels through which climate and socioeconomic systems interact and it is likely that climate change will modify the probability distribution of the losses they generate the long term growth models used in climate change assessments however cannot capture the eects of such shortterm shocks to investigate this issue a non equilibrium dynamic model nedym is used to assess the macroeconomic consequences of extreme events this exercise allowed us to dene the economic amplic ation ratio as the ratio of the overall production loss due to an event to its direct costs this ratio could be used to improve the cost benet analysis of prevention measures we found also that unlike a solow like model nedym exhibits a bifurcation in gdp losses for each value of the capacity to fund reconstruction gdp losses remain moderate if the intensity and frequency of extremes remain under a threshold value beyond which gdp losses increase sharply this bifurcation may partly explain why some poor countries that experience repeated natural disasters cannot develop applied to the specic issue of climate change this model suggests that changes in the distribution of extremes may entail signican t gdp losses in absence of specic adaptation it suggests therefore that to avoid inaccurately low assessments of damages researchers must take into account the distribution of extremes instead of their average cost and make explicit assumptions on the organization of future economies

are there limits to growth a simple theoretical model of pollution is developed that generates an inverted u shape relationship between per capita income and environmental quality this model is then used to study long run growth the same inverted u shape is shown to appear in time series and the prospects for sustained growth are shown to hinge on whether increasingly strict environmental regulation is compatible with a constant rate of return on capital implementation is also studied tax and voucher schemes are shown to have an advantage over direct regulation because they provide the correct incentives for capital accumulation copyright 1998 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

the impact of wage differentials on choosing to work in agriculture based on a model of industry choice and wage determination a 1 increase in the relative wage in agriculture increases the probability that a nonurban male with no more than a ninth grade education works in agriculture by 3 37 at the sample mean and by 1 3 when averaged over the entire sample a 10 increase in wages may increase the proportion of those males who choose to work in agriculture by nearly a quarter

the optimal timing of adoption of a green technology we study the optimal timing of adoption of a cleaner technology and its effects on the rate of growth of an economy in the context of an ak endogenous growth model we show that the results depend upon the behavior of the marginal utility of environmental quality with respect to consumption when it is increasing we derive the capital level at the optimal timing of adoption we show that this capital threshold is independent of the initial conditions on the stock of capital implying that capital poor countries tend to take longer to adopt also country specific characteristics as the existence of high barriers to adoption may lead to different capital thresholds for different countries if the marginal utility of environmental quality decreases with consumption a country should never delay adoption the optimal policy is either to adopt immediately or if adoption costs are too high to never adopt the policy implications of these results are discussed in the context of the international debate surrounding the environmental political agenda

limitations in evaluating environmental and agricultural policy coordination benefits agricultural policy has traditionally been concerned with the maintenance and stability of farm income and the provision of a stable food supply at low relative prices the food security act of 1985 was the first farm legislation to directly tie farm income and environmental concerns through the conservation reserve program conservation compliance sodbuster and swampbuster provisions the coordination of conservation and farm income policies contributed to commodity supply control by reducing the availability of arable land and it promoted environmental quality by removing some highly erodible land and wetlands from crop production a number of new environmental and food safety initiatives are also being enacted outside the agricultural policy process the most significant piece of legislation is the water quality act of 1987 designed to control

do lenders favor politically connected firms rent provision in an emerging financial market corruption by the politically connected is often blamed for economic ills particularly in less developed economies using a loan level data set of more than 90 000 rms that represents the universe of corporate lending in pakistan between 1996 and 2002 we investigate rents to politically connected rms in banking classifying a rm as political if its director participates in an election we examine the extent nature and economic costs of political rent provision we nd that political rms borrow 45 percent more and have 50 percent higher default rates such preferential treatment occurs exclusively in government banks private banks provide no

natural disasters and macroeconomic performance recent empirical research has shown that output and gdp per capita in the aftermath of natural disasters are not necessarily lower than before the event in many cases both are not significantly affected and surprisingly sometimes they are found to respond positively to natural disasters here we propose a novel economic theory that explains these observations specifically we show that gdp is driven above its pre shock level when natural disasters destroy predominantly durable consumption goods cars furniture etc disasters destroying mainly productive capital in contrast are predicted to reduce gdp insignificant responses of gdp can be expected when disasters destroy both durable goods and productive capital we extend the model by a residential housing sector and show that disasters may also have an insignificant impact on gdp when they destroy residential houses and durable goods we show that disasters irrespective of whether their impact on gdp is positive negative or insignificant entail considerable losses of aggregate welfare

simple rules for climate policy and integrated assessment a simple integrated assessment framework that gives rules for the optimal carbon price transition to the carbon free era and stranded carbon assets is presented which highlights the ethical economic geophysical and political drivers of optimal climate policy for the ethics we discuss the role of intergenerational inequality aversion and the discount rate where we show the importance of lower discount rates for appraisal of longer run benefit and of policy makers using lower discount rates than private agents the economics depends on the costs and rates of technical progress in production of fossil fuel its substitute renewable energies and sequestration the geophysics depends on the permanent and transient components of atmospheric carbon and the relatively fast temperature response and we allow for positive feedbacks the politics stems from international free rider problems in absence of a global climate deal we show how results change if different assumptions are made about each of the drivers of climate policy our main objective is to offer an easy back on the envelope analysis which can be used for teaching and communication with policy makers

household income strategies and natural disasters dynamic livelihoods in rural nicaragua this paper assesses the impact of hurricane mitch on livelihood strategies of rural households in nicaragua through destruction or distress sales of productive assets a hurricane or another natural hazard could induce people with relatively remunerative livelihoods to choose more defensive strategies which allow them to survive but at a permanently lower welfare level than before using panel data from before and after hurricane mitch we find that livelihood strategies can be grouped into three welfare categories annual farming and farm employment generate low incomes whereas nonfarm wage employment and livestock farming result in relatively high incomes perennial farming nonfarm self employment and annual cropping with nonfarm employment take an intermediate position high welfare strategies were associated with high levels of capital and the number of people involved was very similar between different years suggesting that households following low welfare strategies were trapped in poverty however many households moved actively between strategies of different welfare levels this indicates that there was no absolute poverty threshold but also that being able to initiate a relatively profitable livelihood strategy was no guarantee that this strategy could be maintained there is no evidence that hurricane mitch affected livelihood strategy transitions livelihood mobility was similar for households inside and outside mitch affected areas

pace sequencing and credibility of structural reforms abstract this paper reviews the theory and empirical evidence on the main policy issues relating to the pace credibility and sequencing of structural reforms in less developed countries and post socialist economies it highlights areas where there is broad consensus as well as widespread disagreement among policymakers and economists pointing out along the way areas where more research would be useful

uncoordinated agricultural and environmental policy making an application to irrigated agriculture in the west agriculture and the environment are linked by a mutual reliance on scarce resources and prevalent market distortions in this paper we examine the efficiency costs of policies that correct distortions in one sector while ignoring those in another the dual distortions of an environmental externality and water subsidies are studied in the context of irrigated agriculture in california the welfare costs associated with independent action by either a water agency or an environmental authority when that policy maker attempts to correct the respective market distortion without consideration of the distortion in the other market are estimated policies to correct the two distortions are found to be complementary under these conditions the independent correction of either distortion improves welfare by at least 118 per acre in most cases the simultaneous adoption of various second best policies further reduces welfare losses associated with these distortions

evolutionary modelling of the macro economic impacts of catastrophic flood events this paper examines the possible contribution of evolutionary economics to macro economic modelling of flood impacts to provide guidance for future economic risk modelling most macro economic models start from a neoclassical economic perspective and focus on equilibrium outcomes either in a static or dynamic way and describe economic processes at a high level of aggregation as a consequence they typically fail to account for the complexity of social interactions and other behavioural responses of consumers and producers to disasters which may affect the macroeconomic impacts of floods employing evolutionary principles and methods such as agent based modelling may help to address some of the shortcomings of current macro economic models we explore and discuss the implications of applying consumer and producer heterogeneity bounded rationality network effects social and technological learning co evolution and adaptive policy making concepts into existing economic frameworks for the assessment of macro economic impacts of floods authors abstract

climate change and uneven development in this paper using a theoretical model with endogenous capital depreciation we study the effects of climate change and adaptation on long run development we show that climate change affects economic growth depending on climate exposure and adaptation efficiency which are asymmetric between different countries poor countries are likely to be hurt more because of the negative effects of climate change on the rate of depreciation of the assets that represent the engine of growth these asymmetries generally induce growth deficits and unsustainability traps in less developed economies

can natural disasters have positive consequences investigating the role of embodied technical change it has been suggested that disasters might have positive economic consequences through the accelerated replacement of capital this possibility is referred to as the productivity effect this effect is investigated using a model with embodied technical change in this framework disasters can influence the production level but cannot influence the growth rate in the same way than the saving ratio in a solow like model depending on reconstruction quality indeed accounting for embodied technical change can either decrease or increase disaster costs but is never able to turn disasters into positive events moreover a better but slower reconstruction amplifies the short term consequences of disasters but pays off over the long term regardless the productivity effect cannot prevent the existence of a bifurcation when disaster damages exceed the reconstruction capacity potentially leading to poverty traps c 2008 elsevier b v all rights reserved

testing asset fixity for u s agriculture two problems which have concerned agricultural economists since the great depression are low farm resource returns and agriculture s tendency to maintain high aggregate production in the face of declining real product prices the latter phenomenon referred to as irreversibility of supply has spawned a significant literature on approaches to estimating and testing irreversible supply curves houck tweeten and quance while there are numerous explanations of these problems it is widely accepted that both are at least partially due to some asset fixity within agriculture that is in the aggregate there are certain productive factors which are trapped in agriculture attempts to explain asset fixity are not new galbraith and black early argued that high fixed costs contribute to a lumpiness of important factors which makes their temporary reduction or reorganization so expensive as to be unprofitable in the short run later g l johnson hypothesized that productive assets are trapped in agriculture because of a divergence between acquisition costs and salvage value formal developments are in edwards hathaway and johnson and quance both explanations have been challenged d g johnson concluded that available empirical evidence did not support galbraith and black s high fixed cost hypothesis he argued instead that the data were consistent with inelastic supply of agricultural inputs johnson and pasour criticized inferring asset fixity from a divergence between acquisition costs and salvage values they argued that the appropriate concept for investigating resource allocation is that of the resource s opportunity cost although they criticized g l johnson s fixed asset theory they still concluded that asset fixity theory can contribute toward an understanding of why the supply function whether firm or industry is not reversible

a multimarket bounded price variation model under rational expectations corn and soybeans in the united states the bounded prices model under rational expectations is extended to a multimarket setting because the resulting rational expectations model is highly nonlinear fair and taylor s iterative procedure is employed in conjunction with the multimarket framework to obtain maximum likelihood estimates of a supply demand model for corn and soybeans the estimated model is then used to simulate the market equilibrium effects associated with removing price support and acreage set aside programs over the sample period among other things the results reveal that acreage set asides have dominated the induced supply effects of price support programs for corn

a translog cost function analysis of u s agriculture 1939 77 over the past four decades major changes have occurred in u s agriculture a new era in agricultural production in the united states began in 1939 world war ii gave a boost to agriculture still bogged in the depression productivity increases over the period 1939 77 have been quite impressive measured crudely by the ratio of the indices of output and input the productivity index 1967 100 increased from 59 in 1939 to 119 in 1977 to study this phenomenon a multi input translog cost function incorporating hicks neutral technical change hntc was specified annual timeseries data for the united states was used to estimate the model neoclassical duality theory provides an approach for computing the pairwise elasticities of substitution between inputs for each year as well as the annual own and cross price elasticities of demand for inputs

estimating supply response in the presence of farm programs previous empirical research on crop supply response has given insufficient attention to the fundamentally different nature of supply response under farm programs versus competitive markets a simple theoretical model is presented which highlights the program participation option in the farmer s acreage allocation decision the model also provides the basis for different expected supply elasticities under free market and farm program regimes for corn and soybeans econometric supply estimation for corn belt states for 1948 80 using a temporally disaggregated approach confirms a greater supply elasticity for corn and a lower supply elasticity for soybeans under acreage restricting feed grain programs

a dynamic model of the environmental kuznets curve turning point and public policy we set up a simple dynamic macroeconomic model with i polluting consumption and a preference for a clean environment ii increasing returns in abatement giving rise to an ekc and iii sustained growth resulting from a linear final output technology there are two sorts of market failures caused by external effects associated with consumption and environmental effort the model is employed to investigate the determinants of the turning point and the cost effectiveness of different public policies aimed at a reduction of the environmental burden moreover the model offers a potential explanation of an n shaped pollution income relation it is shown that the model is compatible with most empirical regularities on economic growth and the environment

induced bias of technical change in agriculture the united states and japan 1880 1980 because of extreme differences in factor endowments and price ratios among factors between the united states and japan both countries have experienced sharply different patterns of factor use and productivity growth in agriculture for the past 100 years of modern economic growth in this study the method of testing the hicksian hypothesis of induced innovation was developed using the two level ces production function the model was applied to the historical data of u s and japanese agricultural development for 1880 1980 the results were consistent with the hypothesis that different patterns of technical change in the two countries were induced by differences in the levels and the movements in relative factor prices

long run implications of investment specific technological change an attempt is made to disentangle its effects from the more traditional hicksneutral form of technological progress the balanced growth path for the model is characterized and calibrated to u s national income and product account nipa data the quantitative analysis suggests that investment specific technological change accounts for the major part of growth jel e13 030 041 047

measuring the marginal cost of nonuniform environmental regulations a method is presented for measuring the marginal welfare cost of environmental regulations affecting agriculture the method incorporates output market effects and recognizes diversity in production conditions among crops regions and seasons an important advantage of the method is that only regional outputs and changes in regional production costs are needed to calculate deadweight loss thus simplifying the measurement of welfare changes this feature of the model is significant since the complexity and substantial data requirements of most existing impact models cause many environmental regulations to be enacted with inadequate analysis of their economic impacts the method also disaggregates welfare impacts by crop place and time thus encouraging the implementation of nonuniform interventions that achieve a given level of environmental quality more efficiently than uniform policies

research issues in nonpoint pollution control research on nonpoint pollution control instruments has focused primarily on incentives applied either to production inputs that affect nonpoint pollution or to ambient pollution concentrations both approaches may in theory yield an efficient solution however input based incentives will generally have to be second best to make implementation practical design issues include which inputs to monitor and the rates to apply to them the limited research indicates that second best input based incentives can be effective in adjusting input use in environmentally desirable ways alternatively ambient based incentives have theoretical appeal because efficient policy design appears to be less complex than for input based incentives these incentives have no track record nor close analogues that demonstrate potential effectiveness however research on how households and firms might react in response to ambient based incentives is needed before these instruments can be seriously considered

technology as an agricultural pollution control policy in this paper we consider the market level impacts of factor augmenting innovations designed to reduce the use of fertilizers and pesticides first within the context of a simple two factor model and then through a simulation model of the u s corn market in both models the impacts depend on the output demand elasticity and input substitution elasticities the principal conclusion of the simulation analysis is that the potential for new techniques to reduce the use of agricultural chemicals is limited capital augmenting innovations would actually raise fertilizer and pesticide usage land augmenting innovations would also tend to increase pesticide usage

uniform and non uniform second best input taxes we investigate second best input based taxes foragricultural nonpoint pollution control when marketprices are endogenous and production isheterogeneous theoretically we derive the optimalforms of taxes which take account of heterogeneity non uniform taxes and a tax which does not auniform tax empirically we use a multi factor market equilibrium simulation model to determineoptimal tax rates and associated equity effects particularly differences in landowner gains lossesacross a heterogeneous region when market prices areendogenous second best tax policies result inpecuniary externalities that affect existingenvironmental externalities in particular thepecuniary externalities amplify the effect of producerheterogeneity on determination of sub regionaldifferences in tax rates and returns to land particularly for the uniform policy with endogenousprices the uniform tax rate is considerably higherthan any of the non uniform rates and ironically thenon uniform taxes result in less dispersion oflandowner gains across sub regions than the uniformtax

spatially uniform versus spatially heterogeneous compensation payments for biodiversity enhancing land use measures the importance of compensation payments for biodiversity enhancing land use measures has grown over the past decade particularly in connection with agri environmental policy given that both the costs and the benefits of biodiversity enhancing land use measures are subject to spatial variation the criterion of cost effectiveness calls for spatially heterogeneous compensation payments however when deciding whether to implement uniform or heterogeneous compensation payments the regulator has to compare the disadvantage of uniform payments in terms of cost effectiveness with the disadvantages of spatially heterogeneous payments to help resolve this issue this paper provides a simple ecological economic model that allows the reduced cost effectiveness associated with uniform payments for biodiversity enhancing land use measures to be assessed for different types of benefit and cost functions

impact of spatial differentiation of nitrogen taxes on french farms compliance costs the spatial differentiation of input based pollution fees should in theory decrease compliance costs in the case of nitrate pollution of water bodies from agriculture because both the damage and the compliance costs vary over space however the empirical evidence in the literature does not agree on the extent of the potential savings from differentiation we address this issue in the case of france using a mathematical programming model of agricultural supply aropaj the modeling approach used accounts for the spatial diversity of nitrate pollution and the heterogeneity of farming systems our results reveal the efficiency gains from differentiating pollution fees among polluters and water bodies for instance firm specific and water body specific taxes represent respectively 5 8 and 32 5 of farmers gross margin in terms of compliance costs whereas a uniform policy at the river basin district or national level leads to major economic losses and abandonment of the agricultural activity these results stem from the lower tax rates faced by farmers in less polluted areas for scenarios based on spatial differentiation our estimates suggest that realistic regulation via input based pollution fees should be differentiated in order to significantly reduce the financial burden on farmers of conforming to predefined pollution levels some potential adverse effects related to input based taxation and land use change call for additional fine scale nitrogen pollution regulation e g limitations on crop switching

naturally negative the growth effects of natural disasters abstract growth theory predicts that natural disasters should on impact lower gdp per capita however the empirical literature does not offer conclusive evidence most existing studies use disaster data drawn from damage records of insurance companies we argue that this may lead to estimation bias as damage data and the selection into the database may correlate with gdp we build a comprehensive database of disaster events and their intensities from primary geophysical and meteorological information in contrast to insurance data our geomet data reveal a substantial negative and robust average impact effect of disasters on growth the worst 5 disaster years come with a growth damage of at least 0 46 percentage points that average effect is driven mainly by very large earthquakes and some meteorological disasters poor countries are more strongly affected by geophysical disasters rich more by meteorological events international openness and democratic institutions reduce the adverse effect of disasters

negotiating reductions in agricultural support implications of technology and factor mobility this paper highlights the joint significance of agricultural technology and factor mobility in determining the impact of changing support policies the impact of across the board reductions in farm support on output exports employment and land values will vary systematically across countries depending on their relative reliance on export output and input subsidies furthermore considerable maneuvering room exists even after an aggregate reduction in support is agreed upon for example the aggregate u s producer subsidy equivalent could be reduced while leaving unchanged the demand for farm labor by shifting the mix of remaining subsidies toward inputs which are complementary