politics growth and inequality in rural china does it pay to join the party abstract economic reform is often constrained because rank and file bureaucrats responsible for implementation have vested interests that oppose change drawing on an unusual longitudinal survey data set for a representative rural county in northern china we show an alternative positive scenario consistent with the presence of an implicit performance based incentive contract that ties the household incomes of local officials to market liberalization increases in consumer demand and the provision of local public goods the mechanisms appear to be tolerated as the fruits of growth are shared fairly equitably thus allowing implementation of a politically and economically self reinforcing reform process

the distribution of income in china preface notes on the contributors introduction k griffin z renwei part 1 the distribution of income household income and its distribution a r khan k griffin c riskin z renwei three features of the distribution of income during the transition to reform z renwei part 2 income and wealth in rural china the determinants of household income in rural china a r khan the distribution of wealth in rural china t mckinley income distribution and poverty in rural china c riskin part 3 employment and human capital workers in china s rural industries j knight s lina why urban wages differ in china j knight s lina the determinants of educational attainment j knight l shi annex the 1988 household sample survey m eichen z ming index

testing for a u shaped wage curve a response sessions 1993 has written an interesting theoretical note in which he provides a possible analytical justification for a wage curve that is u shaped his idea is to incorporate the stigma of unemployment into the kind of bargaining model set out in blanchflower and oswald 1990 in sessions framework once the unemployment rate becomes sufficiently high and thus individuals believe it is socially acceptable to be without a job unemployment fails to dampen wage pressure we argued in blanchflower and oswald 1990 that the slight evidence there of a u turn in the wage curves for britain and the u s was probably not plausible or empirically convincing the apparent u shape rested on

regional variation in earnings inequality in reform era urban china this article studies the regional variation in earnings inequality in contemporary urban china focusing on the relationship between the pace of economic reforms and earning determination through

the north south divide questions of existence and stability this paper investigates the relationship between regional earnings and unemployment by use of information primarily from the general household surveys of 1975 and 1982 conventional earnings functions are augmented to capture the effects of the level and duration of unemployment and of regional differences in living costs in common with previous studies the authors find personal characteristics and the occupation or industry of employment to be important in earnings determination in this paper however they generally find that although higher unemployment is associated with reduced regional earnings ceteris paribus long term unemployment has little influence in regional earnings determination copyright 1990 by royal economic society

labor market flexibility in east asia lessons from taiwan recent turbulence in east asian financial markets has already spilled over into the region s real economy with significant effects on growth and unemployment the ability of east asian economies to adjust to the crisis depends critically on labor market flexibility specifically a decline in real wages may dampen the increase in unemployment that results as firms restructure in response to changing market conditions thus all else being equal an economy in which real wages are flexible downward should experience a lower unemployment rate than an economy with downward sticky real wages limited downward flexibility of real wages may exacerbate the effect of the current crisis on unemployment this discussion suggests that the relationship between wages and unemployment in east asia s labor markets will play a key role in determining how these economies respond to the crisis underlying this issue are two conflicting theories of pay determination according to early theoretical work by j harris and m todaro wages and unemployment are positively related in their two sector development model higher unemployment in urban centers caused largely by migrants from other regions and new labor market entrants is associated with a compensatingwage differential however models of pay determination by c shapiro and j stiglitz and d blanchflower and a oswald suggest that there is a negative relationship between wages and unemployment in these models workers will be discouraged from shirking if their employers pay wages that exceed the market clearing level and threaten to dismiss workers who are caught shirking an increase in the unemployment rate raises the cost of shirking to workers thereby enabling employers to pay

one more wage curve the case of belgium abstract this paper estimates a wage curve for belgium we find an unemployment elasticity of pay close to 0 1 for males but none for females this may indicate that the female workforce unlike the male faces a more competitive labour market

valuing employee stock options does the model matter in this numerical analysis of models for valuing employee stock options the focus is on the impact of a model on the resulting option prices and the sensitivity of pricing differences between models with respect to changes in the parameters for most models the price reduction relative to standard options is uniquely determined by the expected life of the option in fact with the exception of the financial accounting standards board 123 model pricing differences are negligible if the models are calibrated to the same expected life of the option consequently the application of models with several hard to estimate parameters such as the utility maximizing model can be greatly simplified by calibration because expected life is easier to estimate than utility parameters

wage curve analyses of establishment data from western germany using the iab establishment panel which is representative for western germany the authors find that establishment level wages reacted to variations in the regional unemployment rate the elasticity of wages with respect to unemployment they estimate was about 0 1 this responsiveness of the wage to regional variation is close to estimates found by other researchers using individual rather than establishment data for other countries and contradicts the view that germany s labor market largely due to the nature of collective bargaining in that country is relatively inflexible possible explanations for this finding are that the negotiated wage is treated like a minimum wage with firms deviating from it in order to increase work effort bargaining between firms and individual workers or between firms and works councils produces wage differences or collective agreements do not restrict firms to the extent that is often assumed

option prices and the underlying asset s return distribution this work examines the relation between option prices and the true as opposed to risk neutral distribution of the underlying asset if the underlying asset follows a diffusion with an instantaneous expected return at least as large as the instantaneous risk free rate observed option prices can be used to place bounds on the moments of the true distribution an illustration of the paper s results is provided by the analysis of the information concerning the mean and standard deviation of market returns contained in the prices of s p 100 index options although it seems natural that the prices of claims to various parts of the underlying asset s distribution should contain information about the shape of that distribution cox and ross 1976 established that an option s price equals its expected payoff discounted at the risk free rate where the expectation is taken over the risk neutral rather than the true distribution of the underlying asset linking the risk neutral distribution implicit in option prices to the true distribution remains a comparative mystery a necessary condition for the risk neutral pricing methodology to be applicable is that the true and the risk neutral distribution share a common support the only information about the true distribution that can be obtained from observed option prices alone is information about that support this paper demonstrates though that observed option prices when used in conjunction with simple assume d restrictions on the true distribution do contain information about the noncentral moments of the true distribution not directly implied by those assumed restrictions alone the intuition for the result that option prices can be useful in placing bounds on the moments of the true distribution is straightforward first we generalize the results in lo 1987 to show how the expected payoff to a call can be bounded above in terms of any chosen set of the noncentral moments of the return on the underlying asset second we establish restrictions on the

growing out of poverty trends and patterns of urban poverty in china 1988 2002 summary this paper estimates trends in absolute poverty in urban china using the chinese household income project surveys poverty incidence curves are plotted showing lower poverty in 2002 than in 1988 irrespective of the poverty line chosen incomes of the poorest fell during 1988 95 contributing to a rise in inequality however inequality has been fairly constant thereafter models of the determination of income and poverty reveal widening differentials by education sex and communist party membership income from government anti poverty programs has little impact on poverty which has fallen almost entirely due to overall economic growth rather than redistribution

consumer demand and equilibrium unemployment in a working model of the customer market incentive wage economy though not conceived as a constant the natural unemployment rate was taken to be invariant to supply shocks until the late seventies and to real demand shocks until now the largely micro theoretic model here is one in a series deriving the natural rate path from general equilibrium in this model the labor market exhibits generalized real wage rigidity resulting from the use of incentive wages to combat shirking and the asset backing shares is the firms customers arising from customer market friction one finding is that increased consumer demand drives up the natural rate by driving real interest rates up

rethinking inequality decomposition with evidence from rural china we examine inequality decompositions by income source and describe a general regression based approach for decomposing inequality the approach provides an efficient and flexible way to quantify the roles of variables like education and age in a multivariate context we illustrate the method using survey data from china the empirical results demonstrate how sharply different conclusions can emerge for different decomposition rules we explain how these differences reflect the treatment of equally distributed sources of income and we discuss implications for how results from inequality decomposition are interpreted a renewed interest in economic growth political economy and the distribution of income has again placed the economics of income inequality firmly on the academic research agenda relatively poor performances in latin america have been contrasted with success stories in east asia and recent evidence on the changing income distributions of emerging economic giants like china has

exercise behavior valuation and the incentive effects of employee stock options abstract we use a large database on eso exercises to document characteristics of exercise behavior and calibrate a utility based model for measuring how differences in exercise behavior are manifested in option values and incentives option values and incentives computed from the model calibrations are compared to those computed from models used to value tradable options our analysis provides guidance to both academics and practitioners about how differences in exercise behavior and model choice affect measures of eso values and incentives and underscores the importance of gaining a thorough understanding of the underlying economic forces that affect the behavior of eso holders

has consumption inequality mirrored income inequality we revisit to what extent the increase in income inequality since 1980 was mirrored by consumption inequality we do so by constructing an alternative measure of consumption expenditure using a demand system to correct for systematic measurement error in the consumer expenditure survey our estimation exploits the relative expenditure of high and low income households on luxuries versus necessities this double differencing corrects for measurement error that can vary over time by good and income we find consumption inequality tracked income inequality much more closely than estimated by direct responses on expenditures jel d31 d63 e21

fair wages in the open economy we show how an extended theory of fair wages can be incorporated in the two by two heckscher ohlin model an important feature of the model is the existence of involuntary unemployment several results stand out first there is no longer a simple relatio

the subjective and objective evaluation of incentive stock options owners of incentive options invariably hold undiversified portfolios this paper derives a model for the subjective and objective values of such options the subjective value the value to the holder is less than the market value because the option is held in an undiversified portfolio and because it is exercised suboptimally from the market perspective the objective value is the cost to the firm of issuing the option and lies between the market and subjective values this value recognizes the suboptimal exercise but not the undiversified discount the model which is the black scholes model with modified parameters is simple to use

income inequality within and across counties in rural china 1988 and 1995 abstract using household data from samples covering 18 provinces in 1988 and 1995 income inequality within and between counties in rural china is assessed the approach enables us to aggregate average income and income inequality to the levels of provinces and the three regions comprising eastern central and western china most of income inequality in rural china in 1995 was found to be spatial and the uneven development of mean income across counties stood for most but not all of the rapid increase in income inequality mean income of the three regions diverged most forcefully

the development of urban labour markets china s urban wage curve 1980 92 this study explores the effect of china s economic reforms and growth on a critical outcome of labour market interactions wage levels provincial data from 1980 to 1992 are used to analyse changes in interregional wage differentiation and the relationship between average and real wages and a variety of economic variables the results illuminate the increasing role of market forces particularly labour demand variables such as economic growth and foreign investment in determining wage levels and explaining the pattern of first declining and then sharply rising interregional wage differentials in the 1980s and early 1990s at the same time the empirical results highlight the persistence of barriers to labour mobility across regions and enterprises of different ownership types these findings suggest that the evolution of china s urban labour market to date is marked by a combination of unprecedented flexibility as well as old and new forms of rigidity

reconciling the wage curve and the phillips curve the wage curve is the negative relationship that links wage levels to the unemployment rate it fits accurately with modern non competitive labour market models but goes against a phillips curve modelling because the latter ties wage growth to the unemployment rate in this article we present a comprehensive review of these non competitive models highlighting recent contributions that try to eliminate the possible gap that exists between the concepts of the wage curve on the one hand and the phillips curve on the other copyright blackwell publishers ltd 2005

rural urban disparity and sectoral labour allocation in china this study examines china s rural urban segmentation and its causes in the context of economic reforms household survey and aggregate data indicate a v shaped process in which rural urban consumption and income differentials decreased between 1978 and 1985 but then have continually increased to historically high levels this sectoral division is consistent with production function estimates based on provincial data that reveal higher labour productivity in urban state owned industries than in rural industries and agriculture to explain the v shaped change we argue that the precedent of successful rural reforms raised farmers relative earnings but the remaining obstacles to an efficient sectoral allocation of labour have prevented china from eliminating dualism recent financial policies consisting of urban price subsidies and increased investment credits have also had influential distribution effects that are biased against the rural sector

a chinese sky trust distributional impacts of carbon charges and revenue recycling in china abstract the introduction of carbon charges on the use of fossil fuels in china would have a progressive impact on income distribution this outcome which contrasts to the regressive distributional impact found in most studies of carbon charges in industrialized countries is driven primarily by differences between urban and rural expenditure patterns if carbon revenues were recycled on an equal per capita basis via a sky trust the progressive impact would be further enhanced low income mainly rural households would receive more in sky trust dividends than they pay in carbon charges and high income mainly urban households would pay more than they receive in dividends thus a chinese sky trust would contribute to both lower fossil fuel consumption and greater income equality

real wages over the business cycle evidence from panel data one topic on which keynes did not disagree with classical economists was the cyclical behavior of real wages keynes 1936 as well as various classical writers predicted that real wages should move countercyclically quoting the general theory p 17 in general an increase in employment can only occur through the accompaniment of a decline in real wages thus i am not disputing this vital fact which the classical economists have rightly asserted as indefeasible this prediction is based on the premise of competition and a given short run capital stock increases in employment then correspond to more intensive use of capital and through diminishing product lower real wages for this reason evidence by dunlop 1938 and tarshis 1939 that real wages move procyclically was viewed as paradoxical both dunlop and tarshis based their findings on an observed positive correlation between real and money wages which given the procyclical movement of money wages implies a positive correlation between

estimation of poverty transition matrices with noisy data summary this paper investigates measurement error biases in estimated poverty transition matrices we compare transition matrices based on survey expenditure data to transition matrices based on measurement error free simulated expenditure the simulation model uses estimates that correct for measurement error in expenditure we find that time varying measurement error in expenditure data magnifies economic mobility roughly 45 of households initially in poverty at time t 1 are found to be out of poverty at time t using data from the korean labor and income panel study when measurement error is removed this drops to between 26 and 31 of households initially in poverty copyright 2016 john wiley sons ltd

subsidising inequality economic reforms fiscal transfers and convergence across chinese provinces the article investigates per capita income convergence across chinese provinces over the 1978 92 period it confirms previous studies which find a reduction in inter regional income inequality over the course of economic reforms however the rate of convergence has declined since 1985 as a result of two factors first the shift from rural to industrial reforms has disproportionately benefited the relatively wealthier coastal provinces second the system of inter provincial fiscal transfers has prevented convergence among interior provinces as transfers have gone to the richer among them further fiscal decentralisation and an acceleration of reforms in the interior provinces is thus unlikely to increase regional income inequality

wage flexibility in the chinese labour market 1989 2009 abstractwage flexibility in the chinese labour market 1989 2009 regional studies china s bureaucratic wage determination system is gradually being replaced by a market based system leading to a novel version of a dual labour market this paper studies wage flexibility in this dual market its principal findings are as follows wages in both sectors have become less responsive to changes in official registered unemployment with an alternative market based measure of unemployment becoming more relevant there is evidence of convergence of flexibility between the two sectors the wages of women exhibit greater flexibility than those of men and there is evidence of differences in wage flexibility between workers who have urban residential rights and rural migrants

the nairu and wages in local labor markets unemployment in the united states has been below its presumed nairu nonaccelerating inflation rate of unemployment of 6 percent for more than four years the doctrine or dogma of the nairu led to the expectation that an unemployment rate below the nairu would make accelerating inflation inevitable but by all measures inflation has if anything declined and shows no signs of increasing the nairu doctrine has had a major role in macroeconomic theory and monetary policy for several decades for example the seven hikes in interest rates by the fed in 1994 1995 seem to have been motivated not by concerns about existing inflation cpi u inflation was steady and below 3 percent but by fears that an unemployment rate falling toward the 6 percent level and then below 6 percent in september 1994 would foster future inflation theoretical and statistical criticisms of the nairu have been growing see e g robert solow 1986 james tobin 1993 eisner 1994 rod cross 1995 essays by cross frank hahn and tobin ray fair 1996 olivier blanchard and lawrence katz 1997

real wage cyclicality in urban china abstract this paper investigates the cyclical behaviour of real wages in urban china we find wage pro cyclicality in the public sector and in small medium firms but not in the private sector and in big firms

market transition and the persistence of power the changing stratification system in urban china research on transitional socialist societies has explored trends in income inequality and issues concerning who gains and who loses during market reforms we find that income inequality in a major chinese city declined only slightly during the first decade of reform policies it then increased dramatically in the subsequent five years strategic position in the state bureaucracy continues to be an important determinant of income although connections to the market system are becoming alternate sources of advantage we interpret these findings in light of the historical and institutional context of urban china

are two cheap noisy measures better than one expensive accurate one 1 survey responses are always subject to measurement error in general surveys and especially longitudinal surveys there are severe constraints on the time that can be spent eliciting a less noisy response for any target variable in this paper we consider when it may be better to consider multiple noisy measures of the target measure rather than improving the reliability of a single measure 2 the kotlarski result states that if the measurement errors in two measures of the same target variable are mutually independent and independent of the true value then we can recover the entire distribution of the quantity of interest up to location 3 we consider designing surveys to deliver measurement error with desirable properties this shifts the emphasis from reliability the signal to noise ratio for any given measure to the joint properties of the multiple measures 4 to illustrate our ideas we consider a concrete example the measurement of consumption inequality a small simulation study suggests that the approach we propose has promise the next step in this research agenda is experiments in survey data collection

trends in the gender earnings differential in urban china 1988 2004 this paper analyzes changes in the gender earnings gap in urban china over the period 1988 2004 using urban household survey data the mean female male earnings ratio declined from 86 3 to 76 2

is inflation sticky abstract new keynesian sticky price models predict that monetary policy can affect real variables however they also predict that inflation can be reduced without depressing output or employment in fact bringing down inflation is costly presenting a challenge to the new keynesian model two departures from the new keynesian model predict costly disinflation one assumes sticky inflation rather than sticky prices while the other assumes less than perfectly rational expectations taking into account information from surveys of inflation expectations i find the evidence suggests that inflation is not sticky and that inflation expectations are less than perfectly rational

the un importance of forward looking behavior in price specifications the seminal work of edmund s phelps 1978 john b taylor 1980 and guillermo a calvo 1983 developed forward looking models of price determination that imparted inertia to the price level these models incorporate expectations of future prices and excess demand by imposing constraints typically lag lead symmetry constraints that force future variables to enter the specification in this paper the author tests the empirical significance of future prices in specifications like those of taylor he finds that expectations of future prices are empirically unimportant in explaining price and inflation behavior however the dynamics of a model that includes a purely backward looking inflation specification differ substantially and not altogether pleasingly from those with a forward looking specification copyright 1997 by ohio state university press

expenditure response to increases in in kind transfers evidence from the supplemental nutrition assistance program recent studies on food stamp participant households marginal propensity to spend out of food stamps versus income have had contradictory results experimental studies have found household behavior aligns with standard economic theory where households marginal propensity to spend on food out of food stamps is equivalent to cash income observational studies nd that households have a larger marginal propensity to spend out of food stamps than cash income in this study we re examine this question by estimating how an unprecedentedly large increase in food stamp benets due to the implementation of the american recovery and reinvestment act aects food at home expenditure we nd that the policy change caused households to increase food at home expenditure as well as increase households share of total expenditure allocated toward food at home expenditure we compare these results to a time period without a meaningful food stamp policy change and nd our results are unique to the arra implementation time period

unemployment in britain male unemployment in britain has risen from around 2 per cent in the 1950s to around 17 per cent in 1985 see figure 1 the figures are for male unemployment because there is no consistent series for women 1 even more remarkably unemployment has fallen in only three years out of the last twenty 1973 1978 and 1979 to account for this we need a model that explains both changes in the natural or non accelerating inflation rate of unemployment nairu and deviations from it we use a three equation supply side model centred on the labour market this has two main features the first concerns the determination of employment in the short run the labour demand function that we use cuts through the fruitless debate now raging especially in europe as to whether current unemployment is classical or keynesian according to the classical view employment is too high because real wages are too high according to the keynesian view real wages are not binding and unemployment is high because the product market does not clear with prices too high relative to nominal demand the whole debate is set in the framework of perfect competition yet in perfect competition prices are set by impersonal forces and it is not clear what could possibly stop prices clearing the market it is much more reasonable to think of prices as being set by imperfectly competitive firms existing prices being the best they can think of given the demand they face in this context firms demand for labour will depend on both the real product wage and the level of real aggregate demand this is the demand function we estimate and it conforms both to common sense and to the data however this does not imply that employment can be made to grow without limit by pumping up real demand for in the medium term when price surprises are eliminated our model determines three variables employment real wages and real demand on the basis of three equations an employment equation a price equation and a wage equation thus in the medium term there is a natural level of employment and corresponding to this a natural level of real aggregate demand the second key feature of our model concerns the medium term determination of unemployment in the medium term the planned mark up of wages over prices in wage settlements must be consistent with the mark up of prices over wage costs in employers pricing behaviour for if wage setters try to set real product wages higher than is consistent with employers pricing behaviour this generates ever increasing inflation thus the key to understanding unemployment in the medium term is the behaviour of wage setters if events occur that push them towards too high real wages then unemployment has to rise to offset these influences we shall call these influences wage pressure variables or push factors and they are clearly crucial in understanding unemployment the variables here include the social security system employment protection

forecasting volatility using long memory and comovements an application to option valuation under sfas 123r horizon matched historical volatility is commonly used to forecast future volatility for op tion valuation under the statement of financial accounting standards sfas 123r in this paper we empirically investigate the performance of using historical volatility to forecast long term stock return volatility in comparison with a number of alternative forecasting methods in analyzing forecasting errors and their impact on reported income due to option expensing we find that historical volatility is a poor forecast for long term volatility and that shrinkage adjustment toward comparable firm volatility only slightly improves its per formance forecasting performance can be improved substantially by incorporating both long memory and comovements with common market factors we also experiment with a simple mixed horizon realized volatility model and find its long term forecasting perfor mance to be more accurate than historical forecasts but less accurate than long memory forecasts

rising inequality changes in the distribution of income and consumption in the 1980s this paper examines changes in the distribution of income and consumption in the united states during the 1980s using data from the current population survey income and consumer expenditure survey consumption we reach three primary conclusions first changes in the distribution of consumption parallel changes in the distribution of income the lowest quintile of the consumption distribution received 0 9 percentage points less of total consumption in 1988 than in 1980 the corresponding decline for income was 0 6 percentage points second broad conclusions concerning recent changes in the consumption distribution are not very sensitive to the exact choice of a measure of family needs under a wide variety of alternative household equivalence scales there is a widening in the consumption distribution in the 1980s third the usc of consumption measures of well being in place of measures based on current money income docs change conclusions concerning the extent of poverty in the united stales using the official federal poverty thresholds we find that the overall consumption poverty rate was three percentage points below the income poverty rate in 1988 comparisons of the poverty rates of the elderly and the non elderly are substantially affected by the choice of poverty measure the consumption poverty rare for the elderly was only 60 percent of the rate for adults and one third of the rate for children in 1988 this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

wage curve evidence from panel data abstract we examine the us wage curve using longitudinal micro data results support the wage curve but are sensitive to inclusion of regional and or personal fixed effects we find that hourly wages are less responsive to local unemployment than annual earnings

the effect of implicit contracts on the movement of wages over the business cycle evidence from micro data in this paper we address the question of whether wages are affected by labor market conditions in a manner more consistent with a contract approach than with a standard spot market model from a simple implicit contract model we derive implications about the links between wages and past labor market conditions using individual data from the current population survey and the panel study of income dynamics we find that an implicit contract model with costless mobility describes these links better than either a simple spot market model or an implicit contract model with costly mobility

membership has its privileges the socioeconomic characteristics of communist party members in urban china this article compares the relative importance of political capital in the form of membership in the chinese communist party and human capital in the form of higher education in urban china survey data from urban china strongly support two key elements of the intellectual new class theory intellectuals will have privileged access into the party and the importance of education relative to political reliability will increase over time the data also show how political capital and human capital are converted into high paying and prestigious jobs there is also evidence of a separate path of career mobility for the most socially prestigious jobs a college degree not a party card is the key economic reforms of the post mao era are creating a gap between political power on one hand and social prestige and economic power on the other this gap can be expected to grow as the reforms continue

the role of unemployment in wage determination further evidence on the wage curve from turkey this paper presents an empirical estimation of the correlation between wages and regional unemployment rates in turkey more specifically it explores the role of regional unemployment rates in wage determination the analysis builds upon a series of recent empirical studies on the wage unemployment relationship now commonly known as the wage curve a downward sloping curve in wage unemployment space the existing studies are for most part in advanced market economies while this paper presents one of the few attempts at a wage curve analysis within the context of a developing market economy a cross sectional estimation of micro level individual wage data for the turkish labour market in 1994 suggest a statistically significant negative correlation between wages and regional unemployment rates separate regressions for men and women however show a wage curve to exist only in the male labour market the study also presents the results on other variables of wage determination such as returns to school

income transfers of chinese rural migrants some empirical evidence from jinan this paper explores the determinants of migrant remittances to rural households using data on male migrant workers drawn from the jinan municipality in shandong province in the summer of 1995 the majority of migrants are found to retain close links with their rural households with 85 remitting some income in the 12 months preceding the survey date the transfers accounted for over a third of urban labour earnings a number of models are used to undertake the estimation of remittance functions no evidence of altruistic behaviour is uncovered and evidence for exchange and coinsurance theories is mixed labour earnings proved the most robust determinant of the level of remittance and the remittance wage elasticity calculated is found to be at the top end of the range of estimates obtained in the literature

the exercise and valuation of executive stock options abstract in theory hedging restrictions faced by managers make executive stock options more difficult to value than ordinary options because they imply that exercise policies of managers depend on their preferences and endowments using data on option exercises from 40 firms this paper shows that a simple extension of the ordinary american option model which introduces random exogenous exercise and forfeiture predicts actual exercise times and payoffs just as well as an elaborate utility maximizing model that explicitly accounts for the nontransferability of options the simpler model could therefore be more useful than the preference based model for valuing executive options in practice

a superior measure of consumption from the panel study of income dynamics abstract this paper provides a simple technique for assigning a measure of total consumption to households in the panel study of income dynamics psid using regressions from the consumer expenditure surveys of 1972 1973 and 1983 linear predictions of total consumption are estimated which are stable over time and explain up to 78 percent of the total variance in consumption

efficiency wages and wage dispersion the efficiency wage hypothesis has normally been used to generate an equilibrium level of unemployment the authors use it instead to generate an equilibrium wage distribution this paper starts by generalizing the previous work of r m solow in this area they then use their results on effort wage elasticities to derive a model of wage dispersion the wage rate is shown to be an increasing function of the damage potential of workers that is workers with the highest damage potential receive the highest wage the analysis of the equilibrium of the wage distribution provides interesting qualitative insights into the nature of actual wage differentials copyright 1991 by the london school of economics and political science

german wage curves 1979 1990 abstract this paper presents evidence for a wage curve i e a negative relationship between the wage level and the regional rate of unemployment in germany

chinese rural poverty marginalized or dispersed imagine two models of rural poverty distribution one which might be called the ecological model pictures the poor as confined to poverty regions of great natural adversity separate and apart from normal regions in the normal areas on the other hand there might be growing inequality but there is little or no absolute poverty the second model the socioeconomic model sees poor rich and middle class physically interspersed or living in proximity to one another which of these models more closely approximates reality is an important question it affects the visibility of extremes of wealth and poverty which is a politically sensitive matter also characteristics of antipoverty policy will be very different according to whether it is necessary to identify and treat individual households and neighborhoods widely scattered among the nonpoor population or whether it is possible to target entire poor regions in china the ecological model is official

does stock return predictability affect eso fair value abstract executive stock options esos are modified american options that cannot be valued using standard methods with a few exceptions the literature has discussed the eso fair value by assuming unpredictable stock returns which are not supported by the available empirical evidence in this paper we obtain the fair value of american esos when stock returns are predictable and specifically driven by the trending ornstein uhlenbeck process of lo and wang 1995 we solve the executive s portfolio allocation problem for a simple buy and hold strategy when his wealth can be distributed between a risk free asset and a market portfolio this problem is jointly solved with the executive s optimal exercise policy we find that executives tend to wait longer the higher the predictability independently of the composition of executive s asset menu we have also analyzed the implications under the fas123r proposals for the eso fair value and found that even for low autocorrelations there is a meaningful mispricing when unpredictable returns are erroneously assumed

new keynesian economics and the phillips curve models with sticky prices are an important part of new keynesian economics the author shows that several of the new keynesian models imply a formulation that is similar to the expectations augmented phillips curve of milton friedman and edmund phelps he then presents new estimates of the new keynesian phillips curve the author uses two proxies for price expectations survey based measures and an econometric based measure originally developed by bennett mccallum 1976 overall the results are consistent with the model but the survey based results are more precise suggesting that the surveys may be better measures of actual expectations copyright 1995 by ohio state university press

the cyclicality of real wages within employer employee matches using data from the panel study of income dynamics the author examines the cyclicality of wages within employer employee matches for the years 1970 91 recent research on wage cyclicality has suggested that wages are very procyclical tending to rise and fall with economic upturns and downturns even for workers who remain with the same employer the author finds however that the evidence for wage procyclicality within the matches he examines is rather weak except for the small group of workers who were paid by piece rate or commissions despite having acyclical wage rates men who were paid hourly had earnings movements that were very procyclical salaries exhibited little cyclicality but salaried workers who had income sources from bonuses commissions or overtime had procyclical earnings the results suggest that the increasing prevalence of incentive based pay will increase the procyclicality of wages within matches

a model of the wage curve abstract this paper uses a simple dynamic efficiency wage model of phelps 1994 phelps and hoon 1992 to explain the wage curve of blanchflower and oswald 1994 we derive a theoretical elasticity of wages with respect to employment which depends on only one parameter this invariance may go part of the way to explaining why blanchflower and oswald found wage curve estimates that were so similar across countries

consumption volatility liquidity constraints and household welfare we evaluate the impact of increased income uncertainty and financial liberalisation in the us on consumption volatility and household welfare we estimate euler equations and measure the volatility of unpredictable changes in consumption as the squared residuals we directly control for liquidity constraints using survey of consumer finances data on access to credit and document that despite the increase in household debt between 1983 and 2007 there was no decline in the proportion of liquidity constrained households consumption volatility increased significantly over this period especially for liquidity constrained households indicating substantial welfare losses

consumption inequality and income uncertainty this paper places the debate over using consumption or income in studies of inequality growth in a formal intertemporal setting it highlights the importance of permanent and transitory income uncertainty in the evaluation of growth in consumption inequality we derive conditions under which the growth of variances and covariances of income and consumption can be used to separately identify the growth in the variance of permanent and transitory income shocks household data from britain for the period 1968 1992 are used to show a strong growth in transitory inequality toward the end of this period while younger cohorts are shown to face significantly higher levels of permanent inequality

the determinants of human capital formation during the early years of life theory measurement and policies in this paper i discuss a research agenda on the study of human capital accumulation in the early years with a particular focus on developing countries i discuss several methodological issues from the use of structural models to the importance of measurement and the development of new measurement tools i present a conceptual framework that can be used to frame the study of human capital accumulation and view the current challenges and gaps in knowledge within such an organizing structure i provide an example of the use of such a framework to interpret the evidence on the impacts of an early years intervention based on randomized controlled trial

wage dynamics reconciling theory and evidence u s macroeconomic evidence shows a negative relation between the rate of change of wages and unemployment in contrast most theories of wage determination imply a negative relation between the level of wages and unemployment in this paper we ask whether one can reconcile the empirical evidence with theoretical wage relations we reach three main conclusions first we derive the condition under which the two can indeed be reconciled we show the constraints that such a condition imposes on the determinants of workers reservation wages as well as the relative importance of workers outside options as opposed to match specific productivity in wage determination second in the light of this condition we reinterpret the presence of an error correction term in macroeconomic wage relations for most european economies but not in the united states third we show that whether this condition holds or not has important implications for the effects of a number of variables from real interest rates to oil prices to payroll taxes on the natural rate of unemployment this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

disaggregated wage curves in the united states evidence from panel data of young workers the paper presents wage curve results disaggregated over time by individual characteristics occupations industries and regions in the united states using a panel data set of young workers the results suggest that instead of a strong aggregate wage curve there are a number of different wage curves over time and for different worker groups the slope of the aggregate wage curve varies over time with the strongest wage curves in the late 1980s wage curves exist for most labour market groups the wages of the least educated hispanics those in relatively low skill occupations or service industries are most sensitive to changes in unemployment wages of government workers and those in the mining industry increase with unemployment finally wage curves are steepest in the western states

income inequality in the people s republic of china trends determinants and proposed remedies the issue of income inequality in the people s republic of china prc has attracted world wide attention leading to a sizable literature this paper attempts to provide a nonexhaustive literature review of the prc s inequality trends and determinants and suggested government interventions it discusses profiles of income inequality along three dimensions interhousehold disparity regional divides and urban rural gaps this is followed by an exploration of the driving forces behind rising inequality including the notorious hukou system policy biases location or geographic factors globalization and education finally the paper summarizes and proposes government interventions for containing or reducing income inequality in the prc important areas for future research are also suggested in the final section of the paper

american garch employee stock option valuation abstract we implement a flexible simulation based approach for the fair value of employee stock option eso that accounts for the vesting period departure risk and voluntary suboptimal early exercise we introduce garch effects on the underlying asset and we analyze the price bias with respect to the constant volatility case we also perform a sensitivity analysis with respect to changes in several eso characteristics we compare this valuation with fas 123 method revealing a fas overvaluation finally we value a real eso plan providing the confidence intervals for the estimated eso prices

market transition and the deinstitutionalization of standard work hours in post socialist china the authors investigate the relationship between market transition and work hours in urban china regression analysis of data from the 2006 chinese general social survey reveals a negative relationship between economic marketization measured at the province level and the likelihood that an employee works standard hours standard hours are less common among those working for smaller employers which are less subject to outside scrutiny this relationship between employer size and standard hours is stronger in more marketized regions these findings support the authors argument that standard work hours are deinstitutionalized as employers strive for low cost and flexibility in china s increasingly marketized but poorly regulated economy comparisons of the chinese experience with recent trends in the united states reveal remarkable similarities in the weakening of social employment contracts precipitated by the ascendency of markets and the systematic disempowering of labor

has the wage curve nullified the harris todaro model further us evidence abstract economists traditionally believed that regional unemployment rates and wages were positively related this notion has recently been attacked by proponents of the wage curve which suggests the exact opposite this paper attempts to replicate the wage curve using different us data

returns to education under collective and household farming in china abstract this paper presents a theoretical model and shows that greater distributional equality decreases individuals returns to education the evidence from a production team in 1977 and the rural household farming in 1990 both in china lends support for the model production team did not reward most members especially for those with higher work points such as the married and males education during most of their lifetimes in distributing work points and labor income however under the household farming system a household s average or highest educational level increased its net agricultural income and total efficiency labor for all households at any average highest educational and age levels thus our findings support the idea that reaping returns from schooling investments requires appropriate economic political environments

wages and unemployment in an urban african labour market this paper argues that urban labor markets in africa exhibit a wage curve similar to those found in the united states britain canada and other developed countries drawing on data from the ivory coast the author finds that urban wages are depressed by higher levels of unemployment this result is robust to changes in model specification and level of aggregation it is consistent with the model of wage determination developed by c shapiro and j stiglitz 1984 and d blanchflower and a oswald 1995 but not with claims that urban wages are invariant to unemployment copyright 1996 by royal economic society

understanding urban wage inequality in china 1988 2008 evidence from quantile analysis this paper examines change in wage gaps in urban china from 1988 to 2008 by estimating quantile regressions on chips data it applies the machado and mata 2005 decomposition finding sharp increases in inequality largely due to changes in the wage structure during 2002 08 changes in the returns to education and experience have been equalizing however changes in other categories of wage differential by sex occupation ownership industrial sector and province widened inequality the gender gap continued to rise as did the gap between white collar and blue collar workers and between manufacturing and other sectors

urban income inequality in china revisited 1988 2002 abstract using newly available spatial price deflators this paper shows that inequality evaluations in the literature overstate the magnitude of inequality and inequality changes in china as well as the role played by regional differences in the recent inequality rise

the german wage curve evidence from the iab employment sample abstract this paper examines the german wage curve using the institut fur arbeitsmarkt und berufsforschung iab employment sample over the period 1981 1990 a random sample of 6590 employees covering 142 labor market regions over a ten year period is considered the total number of observations is 40 852 taking into account the endogeneity of unemployment as well as controlling for region and time effects this paper finds support for the wage curve in germany the overall unemployment elasticity estimate is 0 07 and is higher for younger workers than older workers the wages of less qualified workers are more responsive to local unemployment rates than the wages of more qualified workers also the wages of men are slightly more responsive to local unemployment rates than the wages of women ignoring endogeneity of the local unemployment rate yields results in favor of the wage curve only for younger and less qualified workers accounting for endogeneity of the unemployment rate yields evidence in favor of the wage curve across all types of workers

too much of a good incentive the case of executive stock options abstract using a utility maximization framework i show that the incentive to increase stock price does not always increase as more options are granted keeping the total cost of his compensation fixed granting more options creates greater incentives to increase stock price only if option wealth does not exceed a certain fraction of total wealth beyond this critical level granting more options actually reduces incentive effects and becomes counterproductive in addition stock options also create incentive to reduce increase idiosyncratic systematic risk these incentive effects are sensitive to the choice of exercise price

the east german wage curve 1993 1998 abstract this paper examines the east german wage curve using the employment statistics of the federal employment services of germany bundesanstalt fur arbeit over the period 1993 1998 the six waves of this panel include a total of 32 188 684 individual employment spells the statistics comprise the entire population of people gainfully employed and included in the social insurance system these are classified into 114 administrative districts landkreise taking into account the endogeneity of unemployment as well as controlling for region and time effects this paper finds support for the wage curve in east germany the overall unemployment elasticity estimate is 0 15 and is higher for female workers than male workers

an exposition on the nature of the wage curve the relationship between unemployment and pay has recently been encapsulated in terms of a wage curve whereby increasing unemployment acts to curb the general level of pay see blanchflower and oswald 1990 hereafter bo results from bo and elsewhere allude to the possibility of an upturn in the curve with the level of pay tending to rise as unemployment passes some critical rate bo attribute the upturn observed in their study to a data aberration claiming that such a finding appears to go against commensense the shape of the wage curve has important policy implications and although the empirical evidence for an upturn is relatively weak such a possibility should not be dismissed a priori the aim of this note is to stimulate further research into the nature of the wage curve by deriving sufficient conditions for an upturn from a formal model the idea is to supplement the standard neo classical model of the wage curve with behavioural assumptions drawn from the social psychology literature 2 the note concentrates in particular on the concept of status workers are assumed to be primarily but not exclusively concerned with the monetary rewards to an occupation the status associated with a particular occupation plays a significant role in their decision making

labor market slack and the wage curve abstract the unemployment rate might not serve as an accurate measure of labor market slack when analysing countries with large scale labor market programs we replicate and extend the wage curve for east germany the results are in favor of the incorporation of such policy measures