sign and volatility switching arch models theory and applications to international stock markets summary this paper develops two conditionally heteroscedastic models which allow an asymmetric reaction of the conditional volatility to the arrival of news such a reaction is induced by both the sign of past shocks and the size of past unexpected volatility the proposed models are shown to converge in distribution to

extreme return connectedness and its determinants between clean green and dirty energy investments abstract previous studies point to the time variation and asymmetry in the relationship between clean energy stocks and crude oil markets but there is a lack of evidence on the return spillovers between clean green assets and dirty energy assets crude oil and energy etf in lower and upper quantiles and their potential drivers to address these gaps we apply quantile based estimators to measure return connectedness at left and right tails of the conditional distribution of return shocks we find that the average level of return connectedness estimated at the mean median is 29 whereas it reaches 65 when estimated at the left and right tails thus return connectedness across clean energy stocks green bonds crude oil and energy etf is larger at both left and right tails implying that the unsuitability of applying mean based connectedness measures furthermore we show that return connectedness measures vary with time but they are less volatile in the tails notably return connectedness differs between periods of extreme negative returns and periods of extreme negative returns suggesting an asymmetric behaviour an analysis of the drivers of the return connectedness shows the importance of macroeconomic conditions especially at middle and lower quantiles us dollar has a positive impact in all cases whereas the crude oil market uncertainty intensifies the return spillovers at the lower quantile

conditional correlation models of autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity with nonstationary garch equations in this article we investigate the effects of careful modeling the long run dynamics of the volatilities of stock market returns on the conditional correlation structure to this end we allow the individual unconditional variances in conditional correlation generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity cc garch models to change smoothly over time by incorporating a nonstationary component in the variance equations such as the spline garch model and the time varying tv garch model the variance equations combine the long run and the short run dynamic behavior of the volatilities the structure of the conditional correlation matrix is assumed to be either time independent or to vary over time we apply our model to pairs of seven daily stock returns belonging to the s p 500 composite index and traded at the new york stock exchange the results suggest that accounting for deterministic changes in the unconditional variances improves the fit of the multivariate cc garch models to the data t

exogenous tax changes and interest rates testing for ricardian equivalence using an efficient markets model this article tests the ricardian theory i e barro 1974 using mishkin s 1981 1982 efficient markets model of interest rates employing romer and romer s 2010 measure exogenous tax changes i am able to test whether the u s bond market reacts in a keynesian or ricardian manner to exogenous tax policy changes this helps avoid the endogeneity problems associated with measuring the interest rate effects of deficits and provides a cleaner test of the pure ricardian thought experiment i find a significant negative relationship between tax changes and interest rates which is inconsistent with the ricardian model and support the keynesian crowding out framework

breaks and outliers when modelling the volatility of the u s stock market this study analyses volatility persistence of the u s stock market after taking into account the role of breaks and outliers by employing a wavelet based algorithm it identifies several outliers which are comfortably associated with major events such as the black monday and the asian crisis there is also evidence of clustering of breaks and a substantial variation in the properties of the identified segments

nonstationarities in stock returns the paper outlines a methodology for analyzing daily stock returns that relinquishes the assumption of global stationarity giving up this common working hypothesis reflects our belief that fundamental features of the financial markets are continuously and significantly changing our approach approximates the nonstationary data locally by stationary models the methodology is applied to the s p 500 series of returns covering a period of over seventy years of market activity we find most of the dynamics of this time series to be concentrated in shifts of the unconditional variance the forecasts based on our nonstationary unconditional modeling were found to be superior to those obtained in a stationary long memory framework and to those based on a stationary garch 1 1 data generating process

the regional multinationals mnes and global strategic management in a recent paper in the journal rugman and verbeke 2004 aim to provoke ib scholars by arguing that international business activity is mainly regional rather than global in the regional multinational alan rugman expands his discussion of the phenomenon most firms have a strong home base and first and foremost expand to neighboring countries as one would expect based on long streams of research in international business exploring concepts such as internationalization process psychic distance or the liability of foreignness rugman shows that this holds true even for most of the largest firms of the world which may have been insufficiently recognized in the literature d eleanorwestney has reviewed the book and underlines the importance of the conceptual contribution of this research which transcends her concerns about the methodology employed to demonstrate the phenomenon

the regional nature of japanese multinational business in the world s largest 500 firms there are 64 japanese multinational enterprises mnes with data on regional sales but only three operate globally whereas 57 of them average over 80 of their sales and foreign assets in their home region why is there such a strong intra regional dimension to their activities using empirical data and a new framework for analysing both downstream sales assets and upstream production assets we analyse why most large japanese firms appear to have firm specific advantages fsas that are based in their home region a structural contingency approach is applied to two case studies to explain how home region bound fsas constrained the ability of japanese mnes to implement internationalisation strategies

regional and global strategies of mnes revisiting rugman verbeke 2004 we describe the extent to which the world s largest companies in terms of revenues achieve sales around the globe and have been able to penetrate markets outside of their home region we try to answer the following question has there been a recent increase in the world s largest firms achieving a global sales orientation meaning a balanced global distribution of sales rugman verbeke 2004 found that few of the 2002 fortune global 500 fortune magazine 2002 firms accounting for over 90 of the world s stock of fdi actually had a global sales orientation a majority of multinational enterprises mnes were home region oriented suggesting that much work on corporate globalization was normative rather than accurately describing reality we present the equivalent data for the 2017 fortune global 500 fortune magazine 2017 list our data confirm that many large firms are still home region oriented but to a lesser extent than before with 36 mnes up from only nine in the 2002 list now having widely distributed sales across the world s core economic regions the question arises whether this relative increase in the number of mnes with a global sales orientation holds any normative value for the firms that presently do not have such a sales distribution

how well do supranational regional grouping schemes fit international business research models international business ib research has long acknowledged the importance of supranational regional factors in building models to explain phenomena such as where multinational corporations mncs choose to locate yet criteria for defining regions based on similar factors vary substantially thus undermining consensus regarding which regional grouping schemes fit ib research models better in response we develop and empirically validate a theory of comparative regional scheme assessment for model building purposes assuming that 1 schemes can be classified based on their source of similarity and 2 schemes within the same similarity class can be assessed for their structural coherence based on group contiguity and compactness schemes with better structural coherence will also exhibit better fit with ib research models we document support for our theory in comparative analyses of regional schemes used to explain where us based mncs locate operations around the world geography culture and trade and investment based schemes with better structural coherence exhibit better initial fit with mnc location models and less change in fit after modest scheme refinement using a simulated annealing optimization algorithm our approach provides criteria for comparing similar regional grouping schemes and identifying best in class schemes tailored to models of mnc location choice and other ib research models

a stochastic volatility model with markov switching this article presents a new way of modeling time varying volatility we generalize the usual stochastic volatility models to encompass regime switching properties the unobserved state variables are governed by a first order markov process bayesian estimators are constructed by gibbs sampling high medium and low volatility states are identified for the standard and poor s 500 weekly return data persistence in volatility is explained by the persistence in the low and the medium volatility states the high volatility regime is able to capture the 1987 crash and overlap considerably with four u s economic recession periods

volatility persistence in crude oil markets financial market participants and policy makers can benefit from a better understanding of how shocks can affect volatility over time this study assesses the impact of structural changes and outliers on volatility persistence of three crude oil markets brent west texas intermediate wti and organization of petroleum exporting countries opec between january 2 1985 and june 17 2011 we identify outliers using a new semi parametric test based on conditional heteroscedasticity models these large shocks can be associated with particular event patterns such as the invasion of kuwait by iraq the operation desert storm the operation desert fox and the global financial crisis as well as opec announcements on production reduction or us announcements on crude inventories we show that outliers can bias i the estimates of the parameters of the equation governing volatility dynamics ii the regularity and non negativity conditions of garch type models garch igarch figarch and hygarch and iii the detection of structural breaks in volatility and thus the estimation of the persistence of the volatility therefore taking into account the outliers on the volatility modelling process may improve the understanding of volatility in crude oil markets

persistence in variance structural change and the garch model this article examines the persistence of the variance as measured by the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity garch model in stock return data in particular we investigate the extent to which persistence in variance may be overstated because of the existence of and failure to take account of deterministic structural shifts in the model both an analysis of daily stock return data and a monte carlo simulation experiment confirm the hypothesis that garch measures of persistence in variance are sensitive to this type of model misspecification

large shocks in the volatility of the dow jones industrial average index 1928 2013 we determine the events that cause large shocks in volatility of the djia index over the period 1928 2013 using a new semi parametric test based on conditional heteroscedasticity models we find that these large shocks can be associated with particular events financial crashes elections wars monetary policies etc we show that some shocks are not identified as extraordinary movements by the investors due to their occurring during high volatility episodes especially the 1929 1934 1937 1938 and 2007 2011 periods

exchange risk exposure and the option to trade rather than impeding trade increased exchange rate uncertainty may on average create trade as it implies a higher probability that ex post deviations from commodity price parity will exceed tariffs and transportation costs we demonstrate such an effect in a small country short term model under the alternative assumptions of perfect competition and of a monopolist trader producer the proofs rely on the fact that such firms exposures can be replicated and hedged by standard options under partial monopoly scenarios the effect of volatility is ex ante unclear though jel f31

stock returns implied volatility innovations and the asymmetric volatility phenomenon we study the dynamic relation between daily stock retums and daily innovations in optionderived implied volatilities by simultaneously analyzing innovations in index and firmlevel implied volatilities we distinguish between innovations in systematic and idiosyncratic volatility in an effort to better understand the asymmetric volatility phenomenon our results indicate that the relation between stock retums and innovations in systematic volatility idiosyncratic volatility is substantially negative near zero these results suggest that asymmetric volatility is primarily attributed to systematic market wide factors rather than aggregated firm level effects we also present evidence that supports our assumption that innovations in implied volatility are good proxies for innovations in expected stocic volatility

political risk and the expectations hypothesis abstract this paper develops and empirically supports using 3 and 6 month interest rates a theory that political risk can explain the shifting term premia found in u s data we find that incorporating these political regime shifts yield results that support the expectations hypothesis

spurious persistence in stochastic volatility we show that structural changes in stochastic volatility models induce spurious persistence other than in garch type models implied persistence does not tend to unity with given size of the structural change and increasing sample size

some macro data on the regionalisation globalisation debate a comment on the rugman verbeke analysis this paper critiques an earlier contribution by rugman and verbeke 2004 and it does so by considering the global distribution of foreign direct investment fdi it also adds several new dimensions to the regionalisation globalisation debate noticeably by i the incorporation of inward multinational enterprise mne activity ii evaluating changes in the geography of fdi between 1990 and 2003 and iii the introduction of the concept of revealed investment comparative advantage rica of countries and regions while broadly supporting the findings of rugman and verbeke our paper shows that much of the explanation for the regional concentration of fdi and mne activity reflects that of the gross domestic product gdp and trade of the countries concerned rather than any distinctive strategy on the part of investing firms

the expansion of foreign direct investments discrete rational location choices or a cultural learning process it is recognized in the literature that experience may affect the cost and the uncertainty of operating in foreign markets and experience and market knowledge may therefore influence the location decisions of fdis economic theory does not however predict a general expansion pattern of fdis across industries on the other hand the theory associated with the internationalization process approach highlights the importance of cultural distance and predicts a movement from close to more distant markets as more experience is acquired by the firm the internationalization process approach is rooted in a behavioral theory of the firm

structural breaks and garch models of exchange rate volatility we investigate the empirical relevance of structural breaks for garch models of exchange rate volatility using both in sample and out of sample tests we find significant evidence of structural breaks in the unconditional variance of seven of eight us dollar exchange rate return series over the 1980 2005 period implying unstable garch processes for these exchange rates and garch 1 1 parameter estimates often vary substantially across the subsamples defined by the structural breaks we also find that it almost always pays to allow for structural breaks when forecasting exchange rate return volatility in real time combining forecasts from different models that accommodate structural breaks in volatility in various ways appears to offer a reliable method for improving volatility forecast accuracy given the uncertainty surrounding the timing and size of the structural breaks copyright 2008 john wiley sons ltd

measuring international capital mobility a review many barriers to the international movement of capital across national boundaries have been dismantled over the course of the last 20 years financial integration was greatly enhanced by the removal of capital controls on the part of the united states germany canada switzerland and the netherlands after 1973 the recycling of surpluses to developing countries through the euromarkets in the 1970 s the removal of capital controls in the united kingdom and japan beginning in 1979 financial integration among european community countries including france and italy in preparation for 1992 recent moves toward financial liberalization in smaller countries in the pacific and the steady process of technical and institutional innovation that has proceeded around the world some popular tests of international capital mobility however appear to show anomalous results martin feldstein and charles horioka upset conventional wisdom in 1980 when they concluded that changes in countries rates of national saving had very large effects on their rates of investment and interpreted this finding as evidence of low capital mobility the argument

structural breaks in volatility evidence for the oecd and non oecd real exchange rates abstract this paper attempts to determine whether or not nominal exchange rate regimes affect the volatility of bilateral and effective real exchange rates to that end we examine the real exchange rate behaviour for a set of oecd and non oecd countries during the 1960 2006 period therefore covering both the bretton woods system of fixed exchange rates and the adoption of generalised floating exchange rates from 1973 we make use of an econometric methodology based on the hansen s hansen b e 1997 approximate asymptotic p values for structural change tests journal of business and economic statistics 15 1 60 67 approximation to the p values of the supreme exponential and average statistics developed by andrews andrews d 1993 test for parameter instability and structural change with unknown change point econometrica 61 4 821 856 and andrews and ploberger andrews d ploberger w 1994 optimal tests when a nuisance parameter is present only under the alternative econometrica 62 6 1383 1414 this methodology allows us to obtain a profile of p values and to delimit periods of stability and instability in the variance of real exchange rates results suggest that there is clear evidence in favour of the non neutrality of nominal exchange rate regime regarding real exchange rate volatility for developed countries but not in the case of developing or emerging countries

forecasting volatility of crude oil markets abstract this article investigates the efficacy of a volatility model for three crude oil markets brent dubai and west texas intermediate wti with regard to its ability to forecast and identify volatility stylized facts in particular volatility persistence or long memory in this context we assess persistence in the volatility of the three crude oil prices using conditional volatility models the cgarch and figarch models are better equipped to capture persistence than are the garch and igarch models the cgarch and figarch models also provide superior performance in out of sample volatility forecasts we conclude that the cgarch and figarch models are useful for modeling and forecasting persistence in the volatility of crude oil prices

forecasting the conditional volatility of oil spot and futures prices with structural breaks and long memory models this paper extends previous studies by investigating the relevance of structural breaks and long memory in modeling and forecasting the conditional volatility of oil spot and futures prices using a variety of garch type models our results can be summarized as follows first we provide evidence of parameter instability in five out of nine garch based conditional volatility processes for energy prices second long memory is effectively present in all the series considered and a figarch model seems to better fit the data but the degree of volatility persistence diminishes significantly after adjusting for structural breaks finally the out of sample analysis shows that volatility models accommodating instability and long memory characteristics of the data provide the best volatility forecasts for most cases

home region focus and performance of family firms the role of family vs non family leaders do family firms benefit more from a regional or a global geographic scope we suggest it depends on their family leadership type family vs non family leadership we offer a nuanced view of agency and stewardship theories to hypothesize that family leaders are most beneficial when pursuing a regional strategy i e high home region focus hrf whereas non family leaders are more advantageous when pursing a global strategy i e low hrf utilizing a sample of 202 western european firms from 1996 to 2006 we find support for this central hypothesis thus family leadership influences the degree to which family firms benefit from hrf

detecting structural changes under nonstationary volatility this paper shows that the u statistic for moment condition stability proposed by juhl and xiao 2013 can be used to test against structural changes in regression coefficients under nonstationary volatility we investigate the power property under the alternative and prove that the test is consistent against single break multiple breaks and smooth structural changes finally we advocate using a bootstrap method to improve its size performance in finite samples

garch with omitted persistent covariate this paper analyzes the effect of omitting a persistent covariate in the garch x model in particular we show that if the relevant persistent covariate is omitted and the usual garch 1 1 model is fitted the model will be estimated approximately as an igarch model this may well explain the ubiquitous evidence of the igarch in empirical volatility analysis

estimation of garch process in the presence of structural change abstract this paper blends the switching regression model of goldfeld and quandt 1973 with the garch model of bollerslev 1987 in order to estimate and test for the significance of garch parameters in the presence of structural breaks the garch parameter values the switch date at which one regime supersedes another and the gradualness of each regime switch are all determined endogenously

price and volatility linkages between international reits and oil markets abstract this study analyzes price and volatility transmissions between nineteen real estate investment trusts reits and the oil markets the reits data represents a variety of countries at different stages of their development and the expanded analytical approach includes accounting for structural shifts as gradual processes as opposed to strictly abrupt processes typically assumed in the literature oil prices are found to primarily predict reits prices in mature reits markets but the feedback from reits to oil prices is weak from the perspective of volatility strong evidence of bidirectional transmission in majority of the markets is observed our results are in general robust to a shorter common sample period of the various countries this study further demonstrates the importance of accounting for gradual smooth structural shifts for price transmission analysis

the theory and practice of regional strategy a response to osegowitsch and sammartino we are grateful to osegowitsch and sammartino for their critical analysis of our work on the regional and global strategies of multinational enterprises mnes in this response we demonstrate that changing the quantitative thresholds for classifying mnes as global vs non global has no bearing on our earlier conclusions first very few global firms exist second scholarly reflection on regional vs global mne strategy requires substantive extensions of extant international business theory

volatility spillovers between crude oil and chinese sectoral equity markets evidence from a frequency dynamics perspective abstract we examine the frequency dynamics of volatility spillovers between crude oil and china s stock markets in a spectral representation framework of generalized forecast error variance decomposition using sectoral stock indices data we find evidence of total volatility spillover driven mainly by short term spillovers the net spillovers of the oil market are almost all positive and dominated by short ter m components although the spillover during china s 2015 financial crisis is negative and attributable to long term components in addition there exists heterogeneity in net pairwise frequency spillovers between the oil and sectoral stock markets moreover structural breaks in volatilities appear to be a significant feature of volatility spillovers finally frequency spillovers in our system can predict future stock market volatility these results have economic implications for investors and policymakers

real and spurious long memory properties of stock market data we test for the presence of long memory in daily stock returns and their squares using a robust semiparametric procedure of lobato and robinson spurious results can be produced by nonstationarity and aggregation we address these problems by analyzing subperiods of returns and using individual stocks the test results show no evidence of long memory in the returns by contrast there is strong evidence in the squared returns

intra day and inter market volatility in foreign exchange rates four foreign exchange spot rate series recorded on an hourly basis for a six month period in 1986 are examined a seasonal garch model is developed to describe the time dependent volatility apparent in the percentage nominal return of each currency hourly patterns in volatility are found to be remarkably similar across currencies and appear to be related to the opening and closing of the worlds major markets robust lm tests designed to deal with the extreme leptokurtosis in the data fails to uncover any evidence of misspecification or the presence of volatility spillover effects between the currencies or across markets

the deaton paradox in a long memory context with structural breaks this article contributes to the permanent income hypothesis pih and excess consumption smoothness debate in the context of fractional integration we show that the excess consumption smoothness result is a consequence of the quarterly data frequency commonly employed in the empirical work in fact the i 1 hypothesis is rejected for the income process with monthly data in favour of a fractional integration order lower than 1 moreover if a structural break is taken into account we observe a substantial reduction in the degree of consumption smoothness especially after the break found in 1975

how important is regional vs global scope an examination of u s multinationals beginning with rugman and verbeke j int bus stud 35 1 3 18 2004 several international business ib scholars have proposed that most large multinationals are not global but regional this argument has recently been challenged for both its conceptualization and its implementation we aim to contribute to this debate by revisiting the definitions of regional and global by leveraging data from the u s bureau of economic analysis that is new to this literature and by analyzing multinationals scope in terms of both sales and production we find that u s multinationals are significantly more global than has previously been acknowledged in the ib literature

answering the skeptics yes standard volatility models do provide accurate forecasts a voluminous literature has emerged for modeling the temporal dependencies in financial market volatility using arch and stochastic volatility models while most of these studies have documented highly significant in sample parameter estimates and pronounced intertemporal volatility persistence traditional ex post forecast evaluation criteria suggest that the models provide seemingly poor volatility forecasts contrary to this contention we show that volatility models produce strikingly accurate interdaily forecasts for the latent volatility factor that would be of interest in most financial applications new methods for improved ex post interdaily volatility measurements based on high frequency intradaily data are also discussed

structural breaks dynamic correlations asymmetric volatility transmission and hedging strategies for petroleum prices and usd exchange rate abstract this paper investigates the influence of structural changes on the asymmetry of volatility spillovers asset allocation and portfolio diversification between the usd euro exchange market and each of six major spot petroleum markets including wti europe brent kerosene gasoline and propane using the bivariate dcc egarch model with and without structural change dummies the results provide evidence of significant asymmetric volatility spillovers between the u s dollar exchange rate and the petroleum markets moreover the model with the structural breaks reduces the degree of volatility persistence and leads to more appropriate hedging and asset allocation strategies for all pairs considered thus the findings have important implications for financial risk management

non stationarities in financial time series the long range dependence and the igarch effects we give the theoretical basis of a possible explanation for two stylized facts observed in long log return series the long range dependence lrd in volatility and the integrated garch igarch both these effects can be explained theoretically if one assumes that the data are nonstationary

liabilities of regional foreignness and the use of firm level versus country level data a response to dunning et al 2007 we are pleased that dunning et al have provided macro country level data demonstrating the increased internationalization of many nations over the past decade we also appreciate their findings lending support to our perspective on the regional nature of world business our work was based solely on micro firm level data both country level data and firm level data have methodological problems which we attempt to reconcile in this commentary we also address the broader conceptual issues of how to interpret country level vs firm level data

modelling asymmetric volatility in oil prices under structural breaks abstract this paper shows that accounting for endogenously determined structural breaks within an asymmetric garch model reduces volatility persistence in oil prices more importantly we find that both good and bad news have significantly more impact on volatility if structural breaks are accounted for in a model thus previous studies have significantly underestimated the impact of news on volatility as they have inadvertently ignored these structural breaks in volatility our empirical results suggest that it is best to include both asymmetric effects and structural breaks in a garch model to accurately estimate oil price volatility dynamics our results have important practical implications not only for option valuation and hedging decisions but also have major consequences for broader financial markets the energy industry and the overall economy

modeling structural breaks in economic relationships using large shocks abstract this paper introduces a new model of structural breaks in the coefficients of economic relationships which allows them to be driven by large past economic shocks the breaks generated by these shocks can be taken to reflect stochastic changes in agents decisions or beliefs triggered by extraordinary economic events our model specifies that both the timing and size of breaks are stochastic the last property of it enables us to investigate qualitative effects that large shocks can have on economic relationships as an empirical application of our model the paper investigates the stability the oil economy relationship since the early sixties from the six large oil shocks identified by our data the paper shows that only the first oil shock at the end of 1973 has caused a major long term adverse effect on economic activity all the large oil price shocks that have happened since then did not have any significant negative effects on the slope of the oil economy relationship

reassessing home regionalisation alan rugman and co authors argue that globalisation and with it global strategy is a myth this contention rests on a taxonomy of the world s largest firms based on their sales showing an overwhelming share of home regional firms we question the rationales underpinning their classification scheme when retesting the data using different schema we find that the original results are far from robust with a significant share of firms attaining bi regional or global status further longitudinal analysis shows that large firms increasingly are extending their sales beyond the home region our results defy regionalisation theory in its current form and we call for refinements through further research

price volatility in niger millet markets price volatility of food staples is one of the most complex factors affecting food security recent food price crises have raised academic interest in improved volatility assessment the widely held assumption in econometric volatility models that long run volatility is constant has been recently questioned and partly blamed for these crises a multiplicative mgarch model recently proposed by bauwens et al is used in this article to model price volatility transmission along the niger millet marketing chain results suggest important volatility links between consumer and producer prices as well as noteworthy differences between short and long run price dynamics

nonlinear time series analysis of stock volatilities summary the absolute value of the mean corrected excess return is used in this paper to measure the volatility of stock returns we apply various nonlinearity tests available in the literature to show that such volatility series are strongly nonlinear we then explore the use of threshold autoregressive tar models in describing monthly volatility series the models built suggest that the volatility series exhibit significant lower order serial correlations when the volatility is large indicating certain volatility clustering in stock returns out of sample forecasts are used to compare the tar models with linear arma models and nonlinear garch and egarch models based on mean squared error and average absolute deviation the comparisons show that a the tar models consistently outperform the linear arma models in multi step ahead forecasts for large stocks b the tar models provide better forecasts than the garch and egarch models also for the volatilities of large stock returns and c the egarch model gives the best long horizon volatility forecasts for small stock returns

firm specific assets and the link between exchange rates and foreign direct investment foreign direct investment fdi theory and empirical studies have generated mixed support for a link between exchange rates and fdi this paper argues that exchange rate movements may affect acquisition fdi because acquisitions involve firm specific assets which can generate returns in currencies other than that used for purchase using data on japanese acquisitions in the united states across three digit sic industries from 1975 to 1992 maximum likelihood estimates from discrete dependent variable models support the hypothesis that real dollar depreciations make japanese acquisitions more likely in u s industries particularly those which more likely have firm specific assets copyright 1997 by american economic association

modelling exchange rate volatility with random level shifts abstractrecent literature has shown that the volatility of exchange rate returns displays long memory features it has also been shown that if a short memory process is contaminated by level shifts the estimate of the long memory parameter tends to be upward biased in this article we directly estimate a random level shift model to the logarithm of the absolute returns of five exchange rates series in order to assess whether random level shifts rlss can explain this long memory property our results show that there are few level shifts for the five series but once they are taken into account the long memory property of the series disappears we also provide out of sample forecasting comparisons which show that in most cases the rls model outperforms popular models in forecasting volatility we further support our results using a variety of robustness checks

research on international business problems and prospects this paper reflects on the general problems and specific opportunities faced by contemporary research on multinational enterprise the general problems include controlling properly for the firm s opportunities when testing the effectiveness of its policy choices avoiding biases that result from studying surviving business units and ignoring those that disappeared and mobilizing longitudinal data and exploiting the many census based data sets now coming available

forecasting the volatility of crude oil futures using har type models with structural breaks abstract we introduce sixteen har type volatility models with structural breaks and estimate their parameters by applying 5 min high frequency transaction data for wti crude oil futures we find significant structural breaks in the volatility of crude oil futures additionally the historical realized volatility continuous sample path variation negative realized semivariance signed jump signed semi jump and leverage components contain substantial and salient information for forecasting the volatility of crude oil futures then we use loss functions to assess the forecasting performance of these sixteen new models and finally rank these models using the promethee ii method our results indicate that different models exhibit different predictive power in forecasting the 1 day 1 week and 1 month volatility of crude oil futures of the new har type models the new har rsv model performs best at forecasting the 1 day and 1 month volatilities whereas the new har cj best forecasts the 1 week volatility

inflation output and money this paper uses money demand theory and a rational expectations version of the quantity theory of money to study inflation in the united states during the post korean war period the major results are as follows 1 the theory and tests explain the phenomenon of stagflation that is the negative relation between inflation and real activity observed during the post 1953 period the analysis calls into question the many variants of the phillips curve which presume that inflation real activity relations are positive 2 consistent with the models of patinkin 1961 and fama 1980 monthly quarterly and annual data indicate that the base currency plus reserves held against deposits is the relevant monetary variable in the inflation process and that demand deposits are irrelevant the direct policy implication is that the base is the key monetary variable in the control of inflation 3 the most convincing evidence for the simple quantity theory view of inflation proposed here comes from the comparison of the conditional exmoney demand theory and the quantity theory of money are used to study the inflation process as predicted by the model monthly quarterly and annual data indicate that inflation is positively related to money growth rates and negatively related to growth rates of real activity the theoretical and empirical origins of stagflation are explained and changes in monetary arrangements to simplify the control of inflation are prescribed

long memory and level shifts in the volatility of stock market return indices there has been interest in the possibility of confusing long memory and structural changes in level and studies showed that when a short memory process is contaminated by level shifts the estimate of the fractional differencing parameter is biased upward and the autocovariances decay slowly we analyze the properties of the autocorrelation function the periodogram and the log periodogram estimate of the memory parameter when the level shift component is a mixture model our results explain many findings reported and uncover new features we confront our theoretical predictions using log squared returns as a proxy for the volatility of some assets returns including daily s p 500 returns over the period 1928 2002 the estimates follow patterns that would obtain if the process was short memory with level shifts instead of fractionally integrated a simple test is also proposed which reinforces this conclusion

semiglobalization and international business strategy if markets were either completely isolated by or integrated across borders there would be little room for international business strategy to have content distinctive from mainstream strategy but a review of the economic evidence about the international integration of markets indicates that we fall in between these extremes into a state of incomplete cross border integration that i refer to as semiglobalization more specifically most measures of market integration have scaled new heights in the last few decades but still fall far short of economic theory s ideal of perfect integration the diagnosis of semiglobalization does more than just supply a relatively stable frame of reference for thinking about the environment of cross border operations it also calls attention to the critical role of location specificity in the prospects of distinctive content for international business strategy relative to mainstream business and corporate strategy in addition it flags factors products subject to location specificity as being salient from the perspective of international business finally it highlights the scope for strategies that strive to capitalize on the large residual barriers to cross border integration as well as those that simply try to cope with them

forecasting volatility in the biofuel feedstock markets in the presence of structural breaks a comparison of alternative distribution functions abstract the need for research on commodity volatility has grown considerably due to the important role and financialization of commodities in global asset markets this paper examines the volatility forecasting performance of a wide variety of garch based models in the context of biofuel feedstock markets in the presence of structural breaks our sample is also extended to several non renewable energy commodities to evaluate comparatively the volatility forecasting performance across various commodity markets the model specifications allow for different conditional distribution functions in the rolling window estimations a break detection algorithm finds significant evidence of structural breaks in the unconditional variance of all commodity returns under study the out of sample analysis which is based on an up to date model comparison testing procedure reveals that volatility models accommodating structural breaks in the data provide the best volatility forecasts for most cases regarding the relevance of distribution functions the skewed normal distribution dominates in the model confidence sets nevertheless the complex distribution functions do not always outperform simpler ones although true return distribution is asymmetric and heavy tailed

output growth and its volatility the gold standard through the great moderation this study examines the relationship between u s output growth and its volatility over the period 1876 i to 2012 ii we adjust the data for outliers and structural breaks we employ generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity garch and exponential garch egarch specifications normality and homoskedasticity appear only in the garch or egarch model that corrects for the outliers when including the break in the mean equation high volatility persistence remains after also accommodating the breaks in the variance equation the integrated garch effect proves spurious either for the symmetric or the asymmetric model finally our empirical results suggest that the finding of higher output growth volatility stimulating output growth and higher output growth reducing its volatility obtained from the symmetric garch in mean garch m model also proves spurious as a result of the emergence of an asymmetric effect our more appropriately specified asymmetric egarch m model suggests positive volatility in mean and level effects in the long period real gross national product series

a note on the transnational solution and the transaction cost theory of multinational strategic management this article assesses the extent to which the results of bartlett and ghoshal s 1989 work can be incorporated in what has now become one of the core explanations of multinational strategic management i e the transaction cost based theory of international production we demonstrate that the transaction cost approach fully incorporates the empirical findings of bartlett and ghoshal s work to do so requires that we make a new distinction between location bound and non location bound firm specific advantages in addition three possible uses of country specific advantages by multinational enterprises need to be identified while the transnational solution as proposed by bartlett and ghoshal is not itself a new theory of multinational strategic management it is compatible with the transaction cost based model of multinational strategic management

power monotonicity in detecting volatility levels change we show that the cusum and lm tests for structural change in the volatility process enjoy monotonic power the framework is general including many recently proposed non stationary garch type models the result is in contrast to the well known issue of non monotonic power for the cusum based tests for changing mean simulations and an empirical example provide further support

why do markets move together an investigation of u s japan stock return comovements this article explores the fundamental factors that affect cross country stock return correlations using transactions data from 1988 to 1992 we construct overnight and intraday returns for a portfolio of japanese stocks using their nyse traded american depository receipts adrs and a matched sample portfolio of u s stocks we find that u s macroeconomic announcements shocks to the yen dollar foreign exchange rate and treasury bill returns and industry effects have no measurable influence on u s and japanese return correlations however large shocks to broadbased market indices nikkei stock average and standard and poor s 500 stock index positively impact both the magnitude and persistence of the return correlations stock return cross country covariances play a key role in international finance changes in these covariances affect the volatility of portfolios and asset prices as these covariances increase one expects that a fewer domestic risks are internationally diversifiable so portfolio volatility increases b the risk premium on the world market portfolio increases 1 c the cost of capital increases for individual firms and d the domestic version of the capm becomes increasingly inadequate 2 despite the important economic consequences of changes in cross country covariances the determinants of the levels and dynamics of these covariances have been little studied from an academic

does the great recession imply the end of the great moderation international evidence in this paper we examine whether or not the great recession had a temporary or permanent effect on output growth volatility after years of low macroeconomic volatility since the early eighties based on break detection methods applied to a set of advanced countries our empirical results do not give evidence to the end of the great moderation period but rather that the great recession is characterized by a dramatic short lived effect on the output growth but not on its volatility we show that neglecting the breaks both in mean and in variance can have large effects on output volatility modeling based on garch specifications

detecting multiple breaks in financial market volatility dynamics the paper evaluates the performance of several recently proposed tests for structural breaks in the conditional variance dynamics of asset returns the tests apply to the class of arch and sv type processes as well as data driven volatility estimators using high frequency data in addition to testing for the presence of breaks the statistics identify the number and location of multiple breaks we study the size and power of the new tests for detecting breaks in the conditional variance under various realistic univariate heteroscedastic models change point hypotheses and sampling schemes the paper concludes with an empirical analysis using data from the stock and fx markets for which we find multiple breaks associated with the asian and russian financial crises these events resulted in changes in the dynamics of volatility of asset returns in the samples prior and post the breaks copyright 2002 john wiley sons ltd

what is fractional integration a simple construction that will be referred to as an error duration model is shown to generate fractional integration and long memory an error duration representation also exists for many familiar arma models making error duration an alternative to autoregression for explaining dynamic persistence in economic variables the results lead to a straightforward procedure for simulating fractional integration and establish a connection between fractional integration and common notions of structural change two examples show how the error duration model could account for fractional integration in aggregate employment and in asset price volatility

structural change and estimated persistence in the garch 1 1 model abstract the estimated persistence parameter in the garch 1 1 model is biased upwards when the parameters of the model are not constant throughout the sample the present paper explains the mechanics of this behavior for a particular class of estimates

liability of country foreignness and liability of regional foreignness their effects on geographic diversification and firm performance the costs of inter and intra regional diversification have been widely discussed in the existing international business literature but the findings are mixed explanations for the mixed findings have important managerial implications because business managers have to estimate accurately the costs of doing business within and across regions before they make their internationalization decisions to explain the existing mixed findings this study differentiates between liabilities of foreignness at the country and regional levels and explores the joint effects of liability of country foreignness lcf and liability of regional foreignness lrf on the performance of internationalizing firms using data from 167 canadian firms we find that lcf may not necessarily be negatively correlated with intra regional diversification but lrf is positively correlated with inter regional diversification lcf moderates the relationship between lrf and inter regional diversification and also mediates the relationship between intra regional diversification and firm performance lrf mediates the relationship between inter regional diversification and firm performance missing one or more of these variables may result in different cost estimates identification of the relationships between these variables helps to improve the accuracy of estimating the costs of doing business aboard

a perspective on regional and global strategies of multinational enterprises multinational enterprises mnes are the key drivers of globalization as they foster increased economic interdependence among national markets the ultimate test to assess whether these mnes are global themselves is their actual penetration level of markets across the globe especially in the broad triad markets of nafta the european union and asia yet data on the activities of the 500 largest mnes reveal that very few are successful globally for 320 of the 380 firms for which geographic sales data are available an average of 80 3 of total sales are in their home region of the triad this means that many of the world s largest firms are not global but regionally based in terms of breadth and depth of market coverage globalization in terms of a balanced geographic distribution of sales across the triad thus reflects a special and rather unusual outcome of doing international business ib the regional concentration of sales has important implications for various strands of mainstream ib research as well as for the broader managerial debate on the design of optimal strategies and governance structures for mnes journal of international business studies 2004 35 3 18 doi 10 1057 palgrave jibs 8400073

exchange rate volatility and international trade a general equilibrium analysis abstract we analyze the relation between exchange rate volatility and the volume of international trade in a general equilibrium stochastic endowment economy with imperfect international commodity markets and treating both variables as endogenous even in the simplest model the sign of the relation depends on the source for the change in volatility for instance more volatility of the endowments and higher costs to international trade both boost exchange risk and lower welfare but the first increases the expected volume of trade while the second decreases trade note that even the inter equilibria relation between trade and welfare is ambiguous

modeling long memory and structural breaks in conditional variances an adaptive figarch approach this paper introduces a new long memory volatility process denoted by adaptive figarch or a figarch which is designed to account for both long memory and structural change in the conditional variance process structural change is modeled by allowing the intercept to follow a slowly varying function speci ed by gallant 1984 s exible functional form a monte carlo study nds that the a figarch model outperforms the standard figarch model when structural change is present and performs at least as well in the absence of structural instability an empirical application to stock market volatility is also included to illustrate the usefulness of the technique

cross border constraints institutional changes and integration of the dutch german gas market we evaluate the contribution of nine institutional changes to the integration of the dutch and german gas markets we analyse this contribution through the impact of bottlenecks in the cross border infrastructure on the absolute value of cross border price differences in the period 2007 2013 the absolute value of the differences in price levels between the dutch and the german ncg market decreased indicating more integration we find evidence that the improved connections within the german networks as well as between the dutch and the german network contributed to this the strengthening of the connections with the uk market and the russian supply however had a negative effect on market integration between the dutch and the german ncg market the liquidity enhancing changes within the dutch market had a negligible effect

the persistence in volatility of the us term premium 1970 1986 abstract this paper examines the persistence of the volatility of the risk premia for excess holding period returns of the term structure using a garch m model of the conditional variance the finding of a high degree of persistence cannot be sustained once allowance is made for a structural break in the unconditional variance caused by a change in the operation of us monetary policy during 1979 1982

the great moderation and the relationship between output growth and its volatility this study examines the effect of the great moderation on the relationship between u s output growth and its volatility over the period 1947 to 2006 first we consider the possible effects of structural change in the volatility process in so doing we employ garch m and arch m specifications of the process describing output growth rate and its volatility with and without a one time structural break in volatility second our data analyses and empirical results suggest no significant relationship between the output growth rate and its volatility favoring the traditional wisdom of dichotomy in macroeconomics moreover the evidence shows that the time varying variance falls sharply or even disappears once we incorporate a one time structural break in the unconditional variance of output starting 1982 or 1984 that is the integrated garch effect proves spurious finally a joint test of a trend change and a one time shift in the volatility process finds that the one time shift dominates

cyclical properties of supply side and demand side shocks in oil based commodity markets abstract oil markets profoundly influence world economies through determination of prices of energy and transports using novel methodology devised in frequency domain we study the information transmission mechanisms in oil based commodity markets taking crude oil as a supply side benchmark and heating oil and gasoline as demand side benchmarks we document new stylized facts about cyclical properties of the transmission mechanism generated by volatility shocks with heterogeneous frequency responses our first key finding is that shocks to volatility with response shorter than one week are increasingly important to the transmission mechanism over the studied period second demand side shocks to volatility are becoming increasingly important in creating short run connectedness third the supply side shocks to volatility resonating in both the long run and short run are important sources of connectedness

local regional or global quantifying mne geographic scope this paper proposes a multidimensional index of regional and global orientation that can be used in confirmatory studies with econometric methodologies unlike extant measures the index is objectively scaled and controls for home country orientation and market size differences the index is shown to be consistent with models of internationalization that incorporate different assumptions about investment choice and global competition preliminary results show that large multinationals follow home region oriented internationalization paths although much of the regional effect reported by previous studies in fact reflects strong home country biases

chinese multinationals fast internationalization financial performance advantage in one region disadvantage in another our study reveals the financial performance implications of the speed at which chinese multinational enterprises cmnes expand into intra regional versus inter regional host countries in doing so we propose a framework that integrates internationalization speed and home regionalization literatures using data from 767 publicly listed cmnes from the years 2002 to 2014 we discover that the faster the intra regional internationalization the better the firm s financial performance whereas faster inter regional internationalization demonstrates a poorer financial performance we also find that fast mover cmnes technological and marketing resources are valuable in intra regional host countries but vulnerable in inter regional host countries we discuss the implications of these findings for studies of the uppsala internationalization process model and regional mnes

shifts in volatility driven by large stock market shocks abstract this paper presents an extension of the stochastic volatility model which allows for level shifts in volatility of stock market returns known as structural breaks these shifts are endogenously driven by large return shocks innovations reflecting large pieces of market news these shocks are identified from the data as being bigger in absolute terms than the values of two threshold parameters of the model one for the negative shocks and one for the positive shocks the model can be employed to investigate different sources of stock market volatility shifts driven by market news without relying on exogenous information in addition to this it has a number of interesting features which enable us to study the effects of large return shocks on future levels of market volatility the above properties of the model are shown based on a study for the us stock market volatility

regularities in volatility and the price of risk following large stock market movements in the us and japan abstract we examine the effects of large price changes on volatility and the price of risk of two broad stock indices the crsp value weighted index of nyse and amex stocks and the topix of the tokyo stock exchange volatility generally rises after large price changes of either sign but usually revert to pre jump levels within a week or two in contrast the price of risk except for the first day after a jump typically declines following large price increases and rises following large price declines with little apparent tendency to revert toward pre jump levels before the arrival of the next jump

on the origin of high persistence in garch models abstract we show that the baillie and chung 2001 minimum distance estimates of the garch 1 1 model induce spurious persistence in the volatility when there are structural changes in the mean of the process

a markov model of switching regime arch in this article i present a new approach to model more realistically the variability of financial time series i develop a markov arch model that incorporates the features of both hamilton s switching regime model and engle s autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity arch model to examine the issue of volatility persistence in the monthly excess returns of the three month treasury bill the issue can be resolved by taking into account occasional shifts in the asymptotic variance of the markov arch process that cause the spurious persistence of the volatility process i identify two periods during which there is a regime shift the 1974 2 1974 8 period associated with the oil shock and the 1979 9 1982 8 period associated with the federal reserve s policy change the variance approached asymptotically in these two episodes is more than 10 times as high as the asymptotic variance for the remainder of the sample i conclude that regime shifts have a greater impact on the properties of the data and i ca

foreign exchange pricing under free floating versus admissible band regimes abstract in this paper contingent price theory is used to infer the fair present value of the future effective spot rate under free float and alternative permissible band regimes it is shown that a given term structure cannot at the same time bring about an equilibrium in both controlled and free exchange markets a controlled exchange rate is proven to be less sensitive to changes in expectations about the future effective spot rate than a freely floating rate whereas the interest rate change needed to offset such a shift is smaller it is inferred that under an admissible band regime the effective control limits on the current spot rate can differ significanly from the government s declared intervention points

on the persistence and volatility in european american and asian stocks bull and bear markets abstract in this paper we examine the statistical properties of several stock market indices in europe the us and asia by means of determining the degree of dependence in both the level and the volatility of the processes in the latter case we use the squared returns as a proxy for the volatility we also investigate the cyclical pattern observed in the data and in particular if the degree of dependence changes depending on whether there is a bull or a bear period we use fractional integration and garch specifications the results indicate that the indices are all nonstationary i 1 processes with the squared returns displaying a degree of long memory behaviour with respect to the bull and bear periods we do not observe a systematic pattern in terms of the degree of persistence though for some of the indices ftse dax hang seng and sti there is a higher degree of dependence in both the level and the volatility during the bull periods