comparative stability analysis of demand side and supply side input output models in the uk the results of comparative stability analysis of demand and supply side input output models using the uk data are presented as well as the results of the comparison between the uk and us comparative stability analyses of the two models the results of comparative stability analysis of the two models using the us data were reported elsewhere bon 1986 the forecasts of sectoral and total output of the two models are generated with known final demand and value added figures from subsequent tables and are compared with known output figures for benchmark years the results of the uk and us studies are very similar the demand side model performs somewhat better in terms of total output forecasts but the supply side model performs some what better for a larger number of sectors in particular the supply side model offers better forecasts for the mature economic sectors such as agriculture mining and construction both models should be used to determine the extent to which an extent to which an economy

credible spatial preemption it is often argued that incumbent firms may deter entry by preemptive investment in new goods we show that these conclusions are reversed when multiproduct incumbentfirms may exit in response to entry once entrants are in an industry an incumbent will often want to withdraw some goods to prevent competition with the entrant from reducing profits on other goods such a reaction makes entry more attractive to a potential entrant the equilibrium industry structure is less likely to be monopolistic as the goods are better substitutes as exit costs are low and as the competition between producers of the same good is more intense

divisionalization and entry deterrence this paper assumes that incumbent firms can create new independent divisions more cheaply than potential entrants who must incur the additional overhead costs of new entry the main theoretical result is that such divisionalization ability leads perfectly informed incumbents to preempt all rational entry into their industries in contrast existing models of entry deterrence imply that informed incumbents even those with steadily decreasing average costs will often allow rational entry our result may explain why successful large scale entry by firms with no informational advantage is extremely rare the use of divisions to preempt entry may also explain why large firms in high profit oligopolies often divisionalize allowing their divisions to compete freely despite the negative pecuniary externality that each division imposes on others

moving innovation systems research to the next level towards an integrative agenda the concept of innovation systems has been a guiding paradigm of innovation research and strongly influenced research and innovation policy since the early 1990s in spite of this success criticisms have been raised in recent years about whether it is still a suitable framework for addressing the innovation related challenges of the future in the present paper we claim that systemic explanations of innovation success have still a very important role to play in order to address the rising criticism however we have to reconsider the conceptual core of the family of innovation systems is approaches and sketch out a path for renewal the paper retraces the conceptual roots of is approaches assesses their uptake in different policy circles around the world discusses the conceptual core and explanatory ambition and finally formulates a future oriented research agenda for a more integrative innovation systems framework

the role of the state in evolutionary economics from an evolutionary perspective the role of public policy extends far beyond the mere correction of market failures emphasised by neoclassical economics public policy may facilitate the market process it may also guide the market process in the case of multiple equilibria the state can finally play a more creative role by allowing private agents to satisfy individually or collectively certain goals unattainable through market forces alone however this paper shows that although the scope of useful public policies is broader in an evolutionary approach than in neoclassical economics the government s ability to direct the evolution of the economic system is highly limited this paper also tries to formulate certain normative criteria which could act as public policy guidelines in an evolutionary perspective copyright 2004 oxford university press

the impacts of petroleum price fluctuations on income distribution across ethnic groups in malaysia crude oil price hikes have compelled governments of developing countries to let domestic prices of energy increase fiscal priorities made it impossible to fully compensate the hikes by raising energy subsidies this paper examines the potential impacts of a limited deregulation of the petroleum price on the income distribution in malaysia paying specific attention to differences in impacts on major ethnic groups we introduce an extended social accounting matrix sam model which not only incorporates substitution possibilities among production inputs and consumption goods but also allows for the exogenous determination of the price of intermediate inputs the results of simulations indicate that distributional impacts of rising petroleum prices tend to be regressive affecting poor people more severely than richer people all ethnic groups experience income loss with the real incomes of malay households which are relatively poor on average more than the chinese and indian households which are the generally richer

quantifying the impacts of energy price reform on living expenses in saudi arabia abstract as part of vision 2030 saudi arabia has initiated a broad based energy reform programme aimed at gradually reducing its dependence on oil this paper assesses the impacts of energy price reforms on living expenses of various household groups in saudi arabia for this purpose the input output table combined with household expenditure data are used to model the impacts results show that the distributional impacts of energy price reforms are regressive with low income households experiencing a higher increase in living expenses compared to high income households the impacts are primarily instigated by rising prices of energy intensive products after decomposing the impacts into direct and indirect effects it was found that indirect effect is not only responsible for a considerable rise in household expenditure on energy intensive products but it is also distributionally regressive it is therefore vital for policymakers to review and fine tune the social protection system to protect poor households against reforms

embodied carbon in china s foreign trade an online sci e and ssci based literature review abstract this paper systematically presents a survey of the empirical literature studying the embodied co2 emissions in china s foreign trade ecct based on the bibliometric method and the online version of science citation index expanded sci e and social sciences citation index ssci this study summarizes the latest publications regarding ecct in peer reviewed journals in terms of quantities most productive countries institutions authors citations and disciplines by using synthetic analysis of keyword frequency this study reveals the most popular methodologies applied in measuring ecct discusses the variation of numerical results in the literature and reasons and countermeasures for the results uncertainties continuous investigation of the literature releases the methodology employed for measuring ecct becoming more reasonable and the results more critical however the numerical results of ecct are of great discrepancies within given year by different considerations on methodology specification accounting principles and data sources and processing for instance the estimates of co2 embodied in china s exports changed from 478 mt to over 3000 mt and those of in china s imports ranged from 140 mt to over 1700 mt in 2007 therefore overcoming data inherent limitations and reducing discrepancies among available databases should be urgently considered the results imply that the prospective research tendencies on ecct are to 1 improve china s regional input output data and energy intensity data to more precise estimates under global perspective 2 estimate china s carbon emission at firm level by different firm ownerships in production and consumption worldwide 3 assess china s carbon emission from processing or non processing trade by compiling more detailed multi regional input output table 4 evaluate city level carbon mitigation capacity in china under global mrio model 5 explore new carbon management experience in china s carbon trading market and new trade expansion policy of one belt and one road in her new growth era

disruption costs learning by doing and technology adoption abstract we study technology adoption in a dynamic model of price competition adoption involves disruption costs and learning by doing because of disruption costs the adopting firm begins in a market disadvantage which may persist if its rival captures the customers that the adopting firm needs to learn the technology the prospect of future rents by the rival results in i a failure to adopt socially efficient technologies ii an equilibrium preference for technologies that are learned faster but have lower social value and iii more technologies being adopted if more firms enter the market

political losers as a barrier to economic development per capita income in many sub saharan african countries such as chad and niger is less than 1 30th of that of the united states most economists and social scientists suspect that this is in part due to institutional failures that stop these societies from adopting the best technologies a particularly interesting historical example comes from the diffusion of railways in the 19th century while railways are regarded as a key technology driving the industrial revolution there were large lags in their diffusion for example in 1850 the united states had 14 518 km of track britain 9 797 km and germany 5 856 km in the russian and hapsburg empires there were just 501 km and 1 357 kim respectively all data from brian r mitchell 1993 why do societies as in this example fail to adopt the best available technologies one answer is that existing powerful interest groups block the introduction of new technologies in order to protect their economic rents and societies are able to make technological advances only if they can defeat such groups economic monopolies may be one example a monopolist might wish to block the introduction of a new technology by a rival that will capture the market this idea which we call the economic losers hypothesis was discussed by simon kuznets 1968 developed at length by joel mokyr 1990 in the context of technology adoption and formalized by per krusell and jose victor rios rull 1996 and stephen l parente and edward c prescott 1997 related ideas are widely discussed in the literature on international trade policy with many formal models e g gene m grossman and elhanan helpman 1994 there are problems with this story however first despite the intuitive appeal of the idea there are relatively few instances where major economic change was blocked by economic losers mokyr 1990 emphasizes the attempts of many skilled artisans to block the introduction of new machines the most famous example is the luddites skilled weavers who were thrown out of work by mechanization interestingly however many of these groups including the luddites were ultimately unable to block economic progress equally important the economic losers hypothesis relies on the presumption that certain groups have the political power to block innovation but if so why not use this power to simply tax the gains generated by the introduction of the new technology this might be because there are limits on the nature of fiscal instruments though it seems plausible that groups with sufficient political power to block innovation would be able subsequently to lobby effectively for redistribution a more important reason however may be that the introduction of new technology and economic change more generally may simultaneously affect the distribution of political power we argue that the effect of economic change on political power is a key factor in determining whether technological advances and beneficial economic changes will be blocked in other words we propose a political loser hypothesis we argue that it is groups whose political power not economic rents is eroded who will block technological advances if agents are economic losers but have no political power they cannot impede technological progress if they have and maintain political power i e are not political losers then they have no incentive to block progress it is therefore agents who have t discussant gene grossman princeton university

supply side structural effect on carbon emissions in china abstract this paper carries out a structural decomposition analysis sda of production related carbon emissions in china from 1992 to 2005 by adopting the ghosh input output model it finds that the supply side structure measured by sectoral shares in value added increased production related carbon emissions in 1992 2002 mainly due to the rapid growth of manufacturing sectors but reduced them in 2002 2005 thanks to the decreased shares of carbon intensive sectors whatever the supply side structure forward carbon multipliers of each sector or changes in supply side sectoral shares and related emissions effects calculated by adopting the ghosh input output model were different from their demand side counterparts estimated by adopting the leontief input output model the results suggest optimizing the supply side structure and lowering the forward carbon multipliers to control carbon emissions in the future

when do auctions ensure the welfare maximizing allocation of scarce inputs we determine when an unfettered auction will ensure the welfare maximizing allocation of a scarce input that enhances product quality and may reduce production costs a supplier values the input for this use value and for its foreclosure value because once the input is acquired it is unavailable to rivals an unfettered auction often ensures the welfare maximizing allocation of an input increment however it can fail to do so when the input would increase relatively rapidly the competitive position of a rival with a moderate competitive disadvantage bidder handicapping that ensures auctions generate welfare maximizing input allocations differ from standard handicapping policies

public policy and catching up by developing countries in global industries a simulation model this paper examines the effects of different public policies strengthening capability building favouring firms learning protectionism and support of entry of new domestic firms on the catch up of a latecomer with respect to an incumbent country in changing and uncertain technological environments the effects of these policies are analysed with a simulation model first separately and then jointly to assess possible complementarities we reach several results first we confirm that capability building and firms learning are important drivers of catch up second we find that when a large technological discontinuity takes place entry support favours catch up while protectionism has the opposite effect protectionism favours catch up only when no technological discontinuity opens up third we find that depending on the technological conditions different policy complementarities exist therefore different policy mixes should be at the base of a country catch up strategy these results add to the previous literature on public policy and catching up by developing countries in an industry by distinguishing the different effects of various types of public policy and relating them to the technological conditions that are present in an industry

anti williamson a marxian critique of new institutional economics new institutional economics explains capitalist institutions by means of neoclassical tools this method consists of introducing non market institutions as solutions to market failures the explicit or implicit assumption is that in the beginning there were markets in this paper we criticise this conception inherited from neoclassical economics by focusing on williamson s theory first we discuss williamson s speculative method which idealises the market and presents it as natural and universal we then suggest that williamson s categories his method and conception are themselves products of bourgeois ideology in this sense we conclude williamson himself is ultimately an institution of capitalism

leontief versus ghoshian price and quantity models the classical demand driven input output model dates back to leontief 24 25 its economically complete opposite the so called supply driven input output model was developed almost forty years ago by ghosh 16 whereas its first application came more than ten years later by augustinovics 1 followed by giarratani 18 the first theoretical reservations were formulated another ten years later by giarratani 19 and oosterhaven 31 140 1 despite these reservations the model came more or less en vogue in the 1980s several applications appeared at best paying only lip service to this earlier critique 10 5 moreover without much reservations the model also entered the major input output textbook 28 317 22 while uncritical generalizations and reiterations appeared in the theoretical literature 8 3 9 then a heavy discussion about the economic underpinning of the supply driven quantity model was initiated by oosterhaven 33 36 21 34 with that debate the enthusiasm to perform downright applications of the supply driven model seems to have diminished literally in the footnotes of that debate the non existence the mathematics and the possible economic interpretation of the dual price version of the supply driven model was discussed 33 34 independently of this discussion davar 9 presented the dual model in extension but did not discuss the economic plausibility of the underlying economic assumptions nor their implications in view of the misinterpretations and misuse of the quantity version of the supply driven model this contribution aims at an early evaluation of its price version that is as complete and as balanced as possible it is well known that the dual version of the regular input output model is used to simulate cost push inflationary processes 26 188 201 7 246 other applications relate to for instance the price effects of pollution abatement 17 effects of rising energy cost 29 and energy price effects in multiregional or in extended interregional models 35 32 of course this dual price version of the leontief model is based on the same stringent standard assumptions of the quantity version and on some heavy additional assumptions that are made for the price version 37 naturally the potential use of the dual of the supply driven model lies in the simulation of demand pull inflationary processes as opposed to the cost push applications of the dual leontief model hence part of our evaluation will be directed toward the question whether such applications are justified from an economic point of view or not our discussion will start in the next section with a brief summary of the leontief quantity and

entry and competitive dynamics in the mobile telecommunications market abstract we propose an extension of the gans stern gans j s stern s 2003 the product market and the market for ideas commercialization strategies for technology entrepreneurs research policy 32 2 333 350 framework that includes entry by existing firms an incumbent firm possessing complementary assets and strong appropriability is in a formidable position teece d j 1986 profiting from technological innovation implications for integration collaboration licensing and public policy research policy 15 6 285 305 however a de alio entrant can leverage complementary assets to enter along a new technological trajectory and then develop appropriability we illustrate how several mobile telecommunications firms ericsson nokia and samsung pursued this strategy to catch up with the market leader motorola we also identify several shortcomings in motorola s approach it was too inward looking in developing technologies but ironically not inward looking enough in exploiting its most valuable patents

when do stronger patents increase continual innovation under continual innovation greater patent strength expands innovating firms profit against imitation but also shifts profit from current to past innovators we show how the impact of patents on innovation as determined by these two opposing effects varies with industry characteristics when the discount factor is sufficiently high the negative profit division effect is negligible and innovation monotonically increases in patent strength otherwise innovation has an inverted u relationship with patent strength and stronger patents are more likely to increase innovation when the discount factor or the fixed innovation cost is higher we also show how the impact of patents on innovation may change with firms innovation capability and with the intensity of competition from imitators

credible retaliatory entry and strategic toe holds the anticipated profits from entry by an established firm into a new market will depend on how incumbents in that market are expected to respond one possibility suggested by cases and the literature is that an incumbent may respond with retaliatory entry into the first entrant s home market the model presented here describes conditions under which this can be a credible threat that deters the first entry when the conditions are such that it is not credible the paper shows how firms can provide credibility through the establishment of toe hold investments in other markets

the distributional effects of emissions taxation in brazil and their implications for climate policy abstract the emission of greenhouse gases ghg generated by human activity is a major cause of global warming and climate change there is considerable debate about the choice of the best mechanism to reduce emissions under a climate policy the aim of this paper is to measure the impact of a policy of taxing ghg emissions on the brazilian economy as a whole and on different household groups based on income levels in 2009 the following databases were used supply and use tables household budget survey national household sample survey and emissions data from the brazilian ministry of science and technology and innovation a price system from a national input output model that incorporates the intensity of ghg emissions is used as well as a consumption vector broken down into ten representative households with different income levels the main results indicate that this taxation system was slightly regressive and had a small negative impact on output there were however significant emissions reductions

the new institutional economics and its applicability to development abstract the several remarkable developments in the social sciences which have come to be known as the new institutional economics nie have not yet been fully exploited for analyzing the determinants and effects of institutional change in the context of development this paper identifies two important components of the nie and illustrates both a potential complementarities between them and b their applicability to various problems and policies in the long term development of developing countries

choosing the competition and patent licensing this article examines licensing as a means of choosing the competitors which a patentee monopolist will face in the period after the patent expires the queue of entrants consists of two firms which differ in their relative strengths as competitors for example by size or level of marginal cost by structuring the industry to be composed of weak competitors the incumbent is able to prolong its dominant position in the industry after the patent expires examples are presented in which the evidence suggests that choosing the competition was an important motivation of the licensor s behavior

innovation and the persistence of monopoly abstract the auction framework enables us to highlight a crucial feature of many r d races the losing firm can recoup part but not the entirety of its r d investments this feature is shown to account for the marked differences in results obtained by gilbert and newbery and by reinganum when the firm investing the largest amount wins with certainty we establish the existence of a unique equilibrium neither firm employs a pure strategy and the incumbent wins more often than the challenger

the responsibility for carbon emissions and carbon efficiency at the sectoral level evidence from china this work reviews benefit based principles to measuring responsibility for carbon emissions at the sectoral level using environmental input output analysis several new emissions multipliers are proposed to measure sectoral carbon efficiency these principles are used in an empirical analysis of carbon emissions in china and differences between the principles are compared the results indicate that all principles considered can prevent double counting of emissions but that different principles may lead to significantly different attributions of responsibility for carbon emissions and to different multiplier values for particular sectors electricity and heat supply is found to be the sector with the highest emissions responsibility under all but the consumer responsibility principle as well as the highest carbon multiplier under all principles however this sector s responsibility under producer responsibility principles is greater than that under other principles basic metals and transportation and post and telecommunication are among the top five sectors with the greatest responsibilities under all but the consumer responsibility principle whereas construction has the highest consumer responsibility among all sectors the pros and cons and policy implications of each principle are also discussed

capital as a commitment strategic investment to deter mobility abstract this paper analyzes how an early entrant in a market can exploit its head start by strategic investment the analysis is based on spence s paper investment strategy and growth in a new market bell j econ 10 1979 1 19 we frist study the investment game in the no discounting case which embodies the key features of mobility deterrence we establish the existence of a set of perfect equilibria and suggest that one particular equilibrium is most reasonable this equilibrium also valid with discounting involves the follower firm being forever deterred from investing to its steady state reaction curve in contrast to spence s proposed solution

the contributions of the economics of information to twentieth century economics in the e eld of economics perhaps the most important break with the past one that leaves open huge areas for future work lies in the economics of information it is now recognized that information is imperfect obtaining information can be costly there are important asymmetries of information and the extent of information asymmetries is affected by actions of e rms and individuals this recognition deeply affects the understanding of wisdom inherited from the past such as the fundamental welfare theorem and some of the basic characterization of a market economy and provides explanations of economic and social phenomena that otherwise would be hard to understand i introduction the century coming to a close has seen vast changes in economics in both ideas and methodology upon ree ection it is remarkable however how many of the seeds of advances in this century were sowed in the previous i would argue that perhaps the most important break with the past one that leaves open huge areas for future work lies in the economics of information the recognition that information is imperfect that obtaining information can be costly that there are important asymmetries of information and that the extent of information asymmetries is affected by actions of e rms and individuals has had profound implications for the wisdom inherited from the past and has provided explanations of economic and social phenomena that otherwise would be hard to understand in this essay i wish to argue that information economics has had directly and indirectly a profound effect on how we think about economics today eighteenth and nineteenth century antecedents to be sure marshall and other nineteenth century economists talked about problems of imperfect information but with one exception discussions of information were obiter dicta caveats at the end of the analysis they were never at the center

dynamic inducements in r d investment market signals and network locations this research shows that alliance networks shape how firms respond to uncertainty reducing information generated outside a network product awards signal the potential commercial success of the awa

inadequacy of technology and innovation systems at the periphery inadequacy of technology is a child of structuralism the concept of a national system of innovation nsi is a child of evolutionary theory a dialogue between these concepts can enrich our understanding of the problems involved in building nsis at the periphery celso furtado explains the structural roots of modernisation marginalisation polarisation and how the orientation of technology of underdeveloped countries is embedded in income concentration the formation of welfare states at the periphery provides nsis with a new focusing device helping to break the marginalisation side of the process the combined formation of nsis and welfare systems is an institutional response to modernisation marginalisation polarisation

capabilities economic development sustainability the capability concept is commonly used in analyses of firms however as this paper shows it may also be used at the level of nations factor analysis is used on a broad set of relevant indicators to derive composite measures of national technological and social capabilities the data covers 114 countries worldwide on different levels of development for the period 1995 2013 the paper then analyzes the relationships between these capability measures and economic development defined in various ways and controlling for other relevant factors the results suggest that improving national technological and social capability is a must for achieving sustainable economic development and improving living conditions

persistence of innovation in dutch manufacturing is it spurious this paper studies the persistence of innovation and the dynamics of innovation output in dutch manufacturing using firm data from three waves of the community innovation surveys cis pertaining to the periods 1994 1996 1996 1998 and 1998 2000 we estimate by maximum likelihood a dynamic panel data type 2 tobit model accounting for individual effects and handling the initial conditions problem we find that there is no evidence of true persistence in achieving technological product or process innovations while past shares of innovative sales condition albeit to a small extent current shares of innovative sales

innovation systems and technological specialization in latin america and the caribbean abstract this paper examines the national systems of innovation nsi of latin american and caribbean lac countries and attempts to assess their performances although it points out at a number of specific successes overall the region s nsi have evolved since their inception in the 1950s into weak entities science and technology institutions and organisations are not fully performing an enabling role links and interactions between government support organisations businesses and academia are tenuous investment in intangibles and human capital is low and public policy is only partially effective the main result of such weakness is that lac countries innovative performance has as measured by the index of the technological specialisation its which relates the world s normalised shares of high to low tech exports with the only exception perhaps of mexico remained stagnant or has fallen and has lost relatively to many countries that started at similar levels twenty years ago

regional net impacts and social distribution effects of promoting renewable energies in germany this paper concerns the net effects of promoting renewable energies on value added and disposable income in germany as well as their distribution among regions and income brackets since its entry into force the german renewable energy sources act eeg has stimulated tremendous investments in renewable energy capacities by guaranteeing investors a fixed price per kwh as well as a preferred feed into the grid over electricity from conventional sources the policy measures are financed by a surcharge on electricity prices in recent years a controversy has arisen about potentially negative regional and social distribution effects in this paper multiregional price and quantity input output models with endogenous heterogeneous households are used to trace the indirect impacts of the eeg on value added and disposable income through the complex network of regional value chains our findings suggest that the generation of electricity from renewable sources itself leads to small positive impacts on industries but leads to a significant drain on household income and has regressive distributive effects however investment in new capacities may possibly transform these negative impacts into a positive direction for the majority of households

the institutions and governance of economic development and reform why are the ambitions of economic development practitioners and reformers so often disappointed one answer is that development policymakers and reformers are congenital optimists another answer is that good plans are regularly defeated by those who occupy strategic positions an intermediate answer is that institutions are important yet are persistently neglected in the planning process the article takes a bottom up microanalytical approach to economic development and reform it examines the governance of contract investment and private ordering through the lens of transaction cost economizing and it assesses the efficacy of the de facto as against the de jure institutional environment with respect to credible commitments in effect institutional economists are cast in the role of archaeologists of economic reform and development with the task of unpacking the lessons of the past to inform choices and programs for the future

sequential entry industry structure and welfare in this paper we reexamine the relationship between potential competition industry structure and welfare in a market subject to a sequential entry threat where firms can make quantity commitments and have access to a constant returns technology it is shown that provided entry is not blockaded the incumbent s will either prevent entry or allow all the potential entrants in furthermore actual entry may decrease but social welfare never goes down with more potential entrants nevertheless with a finite number of potential entrants policies which lower the cost of entry need not be beneficial in welfare terms

consumer and producer environmental responsibility comparing two approaches abstract two different indicators of environmental responsibility were independently proposed by rodrigues et al rodrigues j domingos t giljum s schneider f 2006 designing an indicator of environmental responsibility ecological economics 59 3 256 266 and lenzen et al lenzen m murray j sack f wiedmann t 2007 shared producer and consumer responsibility theory and practice ecological economics 61 27 42 these indicators are both supposed to reflect the indirect effects of consumer and producer behavior in the generation of environmental pressure in this paper we compare their mathematical properties and interpretation we conclude that they have different implications for environmental policy

on the application of input output analysis to energy issues abstract the paper develops a static input output i o framework for analysing energy issues in the short run in addition to reviewing the conventional static i o model the paper discusses two problems in its applications i interdependence between the projected sectoral output in the multiplier analysis and ii definition of substitution effect in changing the energy input coefficient the corresponding modifications will be analysed an unconventional supply driven i o model is also discussed here in order to improve the completeness on the application of the input output model

the role of obsolescence and inventory costs in providing commitment this paper modifies the cournot and stackelberg models to allow the firms to sell less than they have produced and to store the unsold portion of their output as inventory even if one of the firms can choose its output before the other if it is costless to carry unsold goods forward then the cournot outcome emerges we show however that costs of carrying the inventory forward endow the firms with a limited degree of commitment to sell what they have produced this partially restores the first mover advantage if the firms choose their outputs simultaneously the cournot outcome emerges and has locally consistent conjectures

invention and innovation under alternative market structures the case of natural resources this paper examines the interactions between market structure and resource allocation over time when there is endogenous technical progress the structures considered are a planned economy pure monopoly and competition with patent rights in an efficient allocation the date of invention coincides with the date of innovation the date at which technology is used this is also true with a pure monopoly but monopoly retards technical progress relative to the efficient level competition for patents rights to a new technology results in excessively rapid technical progress if the resource endowment of the economy is sufficiently large also competition may lead to sleeping patents where invention strictly precedes the date of innovation

technology systems and technology policy in an evolutionary framework the central purpose of this paper is to outline an evolutionary theory of technology policy and to connect it with the emerging literature on national systems of innovation any understanding of technology policy must be based on a clear understanding of the nature of technology and the important differences between science and technology technology can be treated in terms of knowledge skills and artifacts and in each case there are different variety generating mechanisms different selection processes and different institutional structures for policy purposes the degree of connection between these different dimensions of technology is at the core of technology policy c 1995 academic press inc copyright 1995 by oxford university press

international trade and the geographical separation between income and enabled carbon emissions abstract in this paper we study how international trade allows the geographical separation between the place where carbon emissions occur and the place where income from those emissions is derived we do so by studying the carbon emissions enabled by the primary inputs of products downstream along the production chain we find that 18 of global carbon emissions are enabled abroad and that developed economies fossil fuel exporters and asia account for 80 of the downstream emissions enabled by international trade both developed economies and fossil fuel exporters exhibit a positive trade balance of enabled emissions while for asia the opposite is true developed economies and fossil fuel exporters enable emissions mainly through the export of manufactured products 690 mt and fossil fuels 684 mt respectively while asia exhibits an outflow of enabled emissions through the import of fossil fuels 209 mt the measurement of enabled emissions allows the understanding of how a region s income is derived from carbon emissions occurring abroad

price cap regulation and technical change abstract existing analyses of the implications of price cap regulation for the development of cost reducing technologies assume that all r d is done by the regulated industry this is unrealistic we present a simple model of non cooperative r d by a regulated firm and a single external developer under a price cap regime of the sort characterised by cabral and riordan in equilibrium the external developer exerts less r d than is socially optimal the regulated firm may exert more or less a tightening of the regulatory regime impacts the r d incentives of both players though in different ways the optimal regulatory adjustment parameter may be bigger or smaller than that suggested by existing studies despite the scope for duplication of results research by an outsider necessarily enhances welfare

economic performance through time prize lecture to the memory of alfred nobel december 9 1993 this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

strategic behaviour of incumbent firms in the uk abstract the main purpose of this paper is to examine the incidence of strategic behaviour in the uk by means of a questionnaire study performed across three broad manufacturing industries food electrical engineering and chemicals of the strategies which have received substantial theoretical attention r d and advertising appear widely used patenting pricing and excess capacity much less so vertical instruments such as purchasing policy also stand out as important but possibly only a minority of firms in our sample actively pursue strategic instruments

preemptive patenting and the persistence of monopoly this article takes a different tack and inquires whether institutions such as the patent system create opportunities for firms with monopoly power to maintain their monopoly power the results apply to other situations such as brand identification spatial location and capacity expansion which share the characteristic that early or preemptive actions may lower the returns to potential competitors

trade from resource rich countries avoids the existence of a global pollution haven hypothesis abstract free trade agreements are currently receiving much attention in the media and politics one important question concerning free trade is its effect on the environment for example in carbon dioxide emissions the goal of this paper is to provide evidence on the validity of the pollution haven hypothesis using a multi regional input output approach for six regions and the rest of the world as a whole our findings indicate that in the period from 1995 to 2009 international trade has allowed the global economy to reduce its overall co2 emissions compared to a hypothetical situation without international trade the total amount of emissions saved was 15 06 gt in the period under consideration however not all of the seven regions in our model have been able to reduce their co2 emissions through trade global value chains have led to china becoming a pollution haven for other regions and its exports have increased world emissions to 1 28 gt co2 in 2008 however what allows a net saving of emissions on a global scale is the supply of energy and natural resources from a set of peripheral economies which in our geographical categorization are mostly integrated in the region of the rest of the world

national innovation systems and the intermediary role of industry associations in building institutional capacities for innovation in developing countries a critical review of the literature abstract developed over the past three decades the national innovation system concept nis has been widely used by both scholars and policy makers to explain how interactions between a set of distinct nationally bounded institutions supports and facilitates technological change and the emergence and diffusion of new innovations this concept provides a framework by which developing countries can adopt for purposes of catching up initially conceived on structures and interactions identified in economically advanced countries the application of the nis concept to developing countries has been gradual and has coincided in the nis literature with a move away from overly macro interpretations to an emphasis on micro level interactions and processes with much of this work questioning the nation state as the most appropriate level of analysis as well as the emergence of certain intermediary actors thought to facilitate knowledge exchange between actors and institutions this paper reviews the nis literature chronologically showing how this shift in emphasis has diminished somewhat the importance of both institutions particularly governments and the political processes of institutional capacity building in doing so the paper suggests that more recent literature on intermediaries such as industry associations may offer valuable insights to how institutional capacity building occurs and how it might be directed particularly in the context of developing countries where governance capacities are often lacking contributing to less effective innovation systems stagnant economies and unequal development

the impact of electricity price changes on industrial prices and the general price level in korea abstract electricity has played an important role in the economic development of korea and thus has become a critical factor in sustaining the well being of the korean people this study attempts to investigate the impact of electricity price changes on industrial prices and the general price level using input output i o analysis to this end we apply the i o price model to the 2011 i o table recently produced by the bank of korea paying particular attention to the electricity sector by considering it as exogenous and then investigating its impacts the impacts of the electricity price changes on each industrial sector s prices and the general price level are quantitatively derived for example the overall impact of a 10 increase in electricity price on the korean national economy is estimated to be 0 4367 we also report the results from the model with the electricity sector endogenous and the model with endogenous electricity and labor sectors this information can be usefully utilized in decision making regarding price management for electricity

the national system of innovation in historical perspective contrary to some recent work on so called globalisation this paper argues that national and regional systems of innovation remain an essential domain of economic analysis their importance derives from the networks of relationships which are necessary for any firm to innovate whilst external international connections are certainly of growing importance the influence of the national education system industrial relations technical and scientific institutions government policies cul tural traditions and many other national institutions is fundamental the historical examples of germany japan and the former ussr illustrate this point as well as the more recent contrast between east asian and latin american countries introduction the national system of friedrich list according to this author s recollections the first person to use the expression national system of innovation was bengt ake lundvall and he is also the editor of a highly original and thought provoking book 1992 on this subject however as he and his colleagues would be the first to agree and as lundvall himself points out the idea actually goes back at least to friedrich list s conception of the national system of political economy 1841 which might just as well have been called the national system of innovation the main concern of list was with the problem of germany overtaking england and for underdeveloped countries as germany then was in relation to england he advocated not only protection of infant industries but a broad range of policies designed to accelerate or to make possible industrialisation and economic growth most of these policies were concerned with learning about new technology and applying it the racialist and colonialist overtones of the book were in strong contrast to the inter nationalist cosmopolitan approach of the classical free trade economists and list s belief that holland and denmark should join the german bund and acquire german nationality because of their descent and whole character reads somewhat strangely in the european community of today nevertheless despite these unattractive features of his outlook he clearly anticipated many contemporary theories after reviewing the changing ideas of economists about development in the years since the second world war the world bank 1991 concludes that it is intangible investment in knowledge accumulation which is decisive rather than physical capital investment as was at one time believed pages 33 35 the report cites the new growth theory

preemptive investment toehold entry and the mimicking principle this article explores the ability offirms to successfully enter against an initial monopolist by pursuing toehold entry sinking entry costs early and planning to produce only later we endow the incumbent with strongfirst mover advantages for example capital is the only input and is completely sunk and in each period the incumbent invests before entrants nevertheless the incumbent s profit can easily be negative if it tries to deter all entry when the market is growing the incumbent may need prohibitive capital in place early on because once toehold entry has occurred the incumbent s planned capital expansion might no longer be rational surprisingly even if market conditions remain stationary the incumbent may still allow some entry in the model some firms are always deterred showing that several firms can deter others more effectively than can a singlefirm the difference arises because onefirm cannot commit to mimicking the aggregate investment path that several independent firms would choose this mimicking principle offers a general perspective for understanding when a monopolist finds deterrence optimal

clusters linkages and interregional spillovers methodology and policy implications for the two dutch mainports and the rural north this paper develops a consistent framework to detect regional clusters of interrelated economic activity and to evaluate both the regional and the national economic significance of individual sectors and regions by using bi regional input output data it appears to be possible to distinguish systematically between intraregional clusters and linkages and their interregional spillovers the methodology is applied to three dutch regions that are especially important from a spatial policy perspective the conclusions surprisingly do not substantiate some of the traditional beliefs held especially as regards the assumed importance of the dutch transport sector cet article cherche a developper un systeme coherent apartir duquel on peut devoiler des grappes regionales d activites economiques etroitement liees et evaluer l importance economique regionale et nationale des secteurs et des regions particuliers a partir des tableaux d echanges intersectoriels pour deux regions il est possible de distinguer s

state and development the need for a reappraisal of the current literature this essay tries to bring out some of the complexities that are overlooked in the usual treatment of the state in the institutional economics literature and supplement the latter with a discussion of some alternative approaches to looking at the possible developmental role of the state it refers to a broader range of development goals including the structural transformation of the economy and focuses on problems like the resolution of coordination failures and collective action problems the conflicting issues of commitment and accountability and the need for balancing the trade offs they generate some ingredients of state capacity and political coalition building usually missed in the literature the possible importance of rent sharing in a political equilibrium the advantages and problems of political centralization and decentralization and the multidimensionality of state functions that may not be addressed by markets or private firms

forecast output coincidence and biproportion two criteria to determine the orientation of an economy comparison for france 1980 1997 the method of forecast output coincidence used to determine if sectors are demandsided or supply sided in an input output framework mixes two effects the structural effect choosing between demand and supply side models and the effect of an exogenous factor final demand or added value the note recalls that another method is possible the comparison of the stability of technical and allocation coefficients generalized by the biproportional filter if for a sector after biproportional filtering column coefficients are more stable than row coefficients then this sector is declared as not supply sided but one cannot decide that it is demand sided anyway and conversely

production experiences and market structure in r d competition abstract in the rd and ii the likelihood of persistent leadership increases with the value of being the winner and the value of being a loser but decreases with expected waiting time of r d innovation and the flow of monopoly profits however destructive innovations may still occur even when production experiences are allowed to play an important role in the r d competition

second mover advantages in the strategic adoption of new technology under uncertainty abstract this paper introduces technological uncertainty into a timing game of new technology adoption it is shown that the timing neither necessarily involves first mover advantages in precommitment equilibria reinganum review of economic studies xlviii 1981 395 405 nor rent equalization due to the threat of preemption fudenberg and tirole review of economic studies lii 1985 383 401 rather there may be second mover advantages because of informational spillovers furthermore the model predicts that the equilibrium payoffs will typically be discontinuous and non monotonic in the probability that the new technology is profitable a welfare analysis reveals several market failures and suggests that policy intervention should adequately depend on the nature of uncertainty and the rate of technological progress

institutions transaction costs and economic growth this essay develops a theoretical framework which explores the historical obstacles to economic growth these obstacles are examined in the context of the political economic institutional framework of economies in history and consequent transaction costs that determine economic performance and growth the essay concludes with specific suggestions for the study of economic growth

competitiveness and industrial policy from rationalities of failure towards the ability to evolve this article elaborates a dynamic rationale of industrial policy focusing on how to strengthen the socio economic system s ability to evolve i e how to achieve high real income together with qualitative change it highlights that the ubiquitous rationalities of failure be it of markets governments or systems are rooted in a peculiar habit of accepting hypothetical perfect states as normative benchmarks in contrast a dynamic logic of intervention should start from the question what the system aims to accomplish combining the structuralist ontology of micro meso and macro with the functional principles of evolutionary change the paper proposes a general typology of economic policies based on their respective contributions to the system s ability to evolve

monopoly incentives for cost reducing r d abstract it is shown in this paper that there exist cost innovations for which a monopolist has a higher incentive to invest than a social planner this unveils the limits of the claim based on arrow 1959 that a monopoly always has a lower incentive to innovate than a social planner and therefore than is socially desirable in contrast to previous results the comparison of incentives may also depend upon the demand function finally for a restricted domain of analysis a rule for comparing the monopoly and the social planner incentives is derived

economic impacts of natural gas flow disruptions between russia and the eu abstract in this paper we use a non linear programming approach to predict the wider interregional and interindustry impacts of natural gas flow disruptions in the short run economic actors attempt to continue their business as usual and follow established trade patters as closely as possible in the model this is modelled by minimizing the information gain between the original pattern of economic transactions and the situation in which natural gas flows are disrupted we analyze four scenarios that simulate russian export stops of natural gas by means of a model calibrated on an international input output table with six sectors and six regions the simulations show that at the lower levels of aggregation considerable effects are found at the aggregate level of the whole economy however the impacts of the four scenarios are negligible for europe and only a little less so for russia itself interestingly the effects on the size of the economy as measured by its gdp are predominantly positive for the various european regions but negative for russia the effects on the welfare of the populations involved however as measured by the size of domestic final demand have an opposite sign with predominantly negligible but negative effects for european regions and very small positive effects for the russian population

and the winner is acquired entrepreneurship as a contest yielding radical innovations new entrants to a market tend to be superior to incumbents in originating radical innovations we provide a new explanation for this phenomenon based on markets for technology it applies in industries where successful entrepreneurial firms or their technologies are acquired by incumbents that then commercialize the innovation to this end we analyze an innovation game between one incumbent and a large number of entrants in the first stage firms compete to develop innovations of high quality they do so by choosing at equal cost the success probability of their rd the bigger the number of entrants the more radical the most radical project generally entrants tend to choose more radical r d approaches and generate the highest value innovation in case of success we illustrate our theoretical findings by a qualitative empirical study of the electronic design automation industry and derive implications for research and management

comparative stability analysis of multiregional input output models column row and leontief strout gravity coefficient models this paper provides the necessary and sufficient conditions on the regional trade matrices that ensure that a generalized multiregional input output mrio model will be convergent the three mrio models are examined using the above conditions and it is demonstrated that the chenery moses column coefficient model satisfies them whereas the opposite is true of the row coefficient and leontief strout point estimate gravity coefficient models this evaluation of the three mrio models confirms the results of empirical testing

innovation policy rationales lessons and challenges innovation policy has emerged as a new field of economic policy during the last few decades this paper explores the rationales for national innovation policies as laid out in the existing literature on the subject and considers what the lessons and challenges for theory and practice in this area are innovation policy attempts to influence innovation activity often with the purpose of increasing economic growth but it can also have more specific aims such as preventing unwarranted climate change improving national health and so on the increasing attention given to innovation policy at the national level from the 1990s onwards went hand in hand with the development of a new systemic understanding of innovation which in a better way than before accounted for the stylised facts of innovation activity as identified by empirical work the system approach as the paper shows came to have a significant influence on the subsequent policy discourse drawing on recent advances in innovation systems theory a synthetic framework for the analysis of innovation policy is developed and used to highlight issues of particular relevance for the conduct of innovation policy and future scholarly work in this area less

income based environmental responsibility abstract a strong mitigation effort is underway to reduce the levels of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions an allocation of the mitigation effort among multiple agents requires understanding which agent is responsible for what emissions according to a defined measure of carbon responsibility the metric adopted by current international climate policy is production based or territorial responsibility however other types of responsibility have been discussed in the literature namely consumption based or upstream responsibility and downstream responsibility in this paper we study the latter which is little explored in the literature we clarify the term through a novel nomenclature income based responsibility and present a case study with the quantification of income based responsibility for 112 world regions and the comparison of the results with production and consumption based responsibilities

analyzing literature based innovation output indicators the italian experience abstract this paper presents the results of a study on the product innovations introduced in the italian market in 1989 and reported in a selected number of trade journals the analysis of data collected by means of this literature based counting procedure confirms that r d oriented industries and large firms do not in italy have a marked competitive advantage in innovation the country appears to be instead characterized by a significant presence of consumer goods industries and small firms in innovation our data indicate a statistically significant association between trade competitiveness and strength in product innovation and show the comparatively higher capacity for product innovation of some of the industries in which italy achieves a positive performance in international trade moreover the presence of spillovers at the regional level from both private and public r d expenditures proves to be positively correlated with the development of product innovations finally small firms with fewer than 50 employees appear to be more innovative than is usually believed to be the case

analytical assumptions and causal ordering in interindustry modeling since the publication of leontief s path breaking work the overwhelming majority of applications of inter industry models have relied on the standard model of demand driven production functions even when the exogenous perturbation originated on the supply side 13 for some time now in fact some economists have been suggesting an alternative to the standard model in situations of supply constraints 8 58 64 9 1 249 69 10 5 447 54 6 281 89 however this alternative model relying on supply constrained allocation functions is not based on the precepts of standard microeconomic theory rather than assuming that input shares are constant as in the standard model the alternative model assumes that output shares are constant an assumption which is not tied to any demonstrated optimizing behavior on the part of firms both models would seem to be somewhat limited the standard model due to its demand only orientation the alternative model due to its untested analytical underpinnings 1 in fact as this paper demonstrates there is an inherent symmetry underlying interindustry analysis the standard leontief interindustry model can be formulated to directly analyze supply constrained perturbations just as the ghoshian allocation model can be formulated to directly handle demand induced perturbations that is there actually exist four frameworks for employing interindustry models that are differentiated by the analytical assumptions i e production or allocation function and the causal ordering i e demand driven or supply contrained employed this paper demonstrates the four frameworks discusses the rationales for their use and provides illustrative results based on their application to the 1967 u s interindustry table section ii of this paper develops the four theoretical frameworks and demonstrates their symmetry simple empirical results are presented in section iii together with some recommended potential applications conclusions are offered in the final section

a two stage econometric method for the estimation of carbon multipliers with rectangular supply and use tables abstract the supply use based econometric sube approach was proposed to calculate stochastic input output multipliers from rectangular supply use tables under the product technology assumption however the resulting total use of direct requirements stimulated by final demand be they carbon emissions labor etc may differ from the actual total use of direct requirements to solve this problem we propose in this paper a two stage sube approach which takes as prior the initially estimated sube multipliers and obtains a posterior set of two stage sube multipliers by constrained least squares minimization we illustrate the results with an empirical application for carbon emissions in the portuguese economy in 2005

intellectual property rights and the mode of technology transfer abstract transferring technology in an environment where patent protection is uncertain can pose significant risks to an innovating firm s ability to appropriate rents this paper incorporates asymmetric information in a screening game where the innovating firm has the choices of licensing a new product at arm s length to a foreign firm exporting it or licensing it to a subsidiary subsidiary production avoids the risk of imitation but involves higher costs for the innovating firm the gains to the southern country from the lack of intellectual property right protection may be offset by strategic behavior by northern firms who opt for technology transfer via subsidiary or monopoly production

product market competition and organizational slack under profit target contracts in a framework a la martin 1993 we introduce a common component in the managers private information in order to address three related questions what is the impact of contracts that reward managers on the basis of realized profits on firms productive and allocative efficiency relative to cost target contracts how do these contracts shape the relationship between competition and organizational slack can we then explain the existing evidence of an inverted u shaped relationship between competition and cost reducing activities as documented in aghion et al aghion p bloom n blundell r griffith r howitt p competition and innovation an inverted u relationship the quarterly journal of economics 120 pp 701 728 2005 we show that profit target contracts introduce a horizontal contractual externality between the competing firms that mitigates organizational slack and improves upon productive efficiency relative to cost plus mechanisms moreover when executive compensations are conditioned on profits an inverted u shaped relationship between product market competition and managerial effort obtains finally we also show that when contractual instruments are endogenous i e when shareholders can choose between profit and cost target rules the equilibrium with profit target contracts always exists and is the only one that survives to standard refinements