some consequences of opening a neo keynesian model this paper presents a model of a small open economy in which unemployment or excess demand for labour can occur due to the exogeneity of the nominal wage it incorporates into the analysis a wholly imported intermediate good which can be thought of and is sometimes referred to as oil an internationally traded consumption good and a non traded domestic good whose price is flexible the paper s main antecedents are dixit i976 buiter and lorie i977 and neary i980 the rest of this introduction relates this paper to the relevant literature and the remainder of the paper is structured as follows section i which presents the model is divided into subsections describing the actions of the various agents involved the choice theory of the model the labour market where quantity constraints can arise and finally equilibrium for the system as a whole this section also contains a non technical summary of the subsequent analysis section ii considers in some detail the comparative statics of the price of the non traded good this is necessary because of the central part this price plays in mediating the effects of exogeneous changes on the system section iii investigates the short run consequences of one major disturbance which originates outside the economy a rise in the price of oil section iv considers the effects on the balance of trade of exchange rate policy and derives some simple conditions under which a devaluation will improve the balance of trade the appendix contains a numerical example which shows inter alia that for plausible parameter values it is possible to obtain the expected negative response of employment to an increase in money wages together with a government multiplier greater than one in the last decade several models have been developed of economies in which prices do not necessarily adjust to clear markets within the period in which trade takes place thus trades can occur at false prices see for example clower i965 hicks i965 barro and grossman i976 malinvaud i977 muellbauer and portes i978 the ultimate aim of this programme has been to provide some micro economic basis for certain macroeconomic phenomena especially involuntary unemployment these models make a number of simplifying assumptions they usually assume the existence of representative worker consumers and firms an

stochastic production and heterogeneous risk preferences commercial fishers gear choices we present a model of fishers gear choice which allows for heterogeneity both in production technology and risk preferences and apply it on a panel of swedish trawlers stochastic revenue functions are estimated and used to predict the mean and standard deviation of revenue for each trip in a random parameters logit model we test if these predicted values explain gear choice a majority of fishers respond positively to increased mean and negatively to increased variability of expected landing values indicating risk aversion but also show a strong tendency to choose the same gear used on the previous trip

an inverse demand system for new england groundfish welfare analysis of the transition to catch share management the welfare effects of the 2010 transition from days at sea to catch share management in the northeast u s groundfish fishery are examined by combining a model of groundfish demand with a simulation based model of supply counterfactual supply is constructed based on the days at sea system that was recalibrated to meet mandated conservation goals due to the decreases in catch that were required to meet those goals the 2010 policy undoubtedly resulted in worse outcomes for both producers and consumers compared to 2009 however the conservation equivalent days at sea system would have been far worse for both consumers and producers copyright 2013 oxford university press

keynesian and classical unemployment in an open economy this paper examines various unemployment equilibria in a fix price model of an open economy with nontraded goods the economy exports an internationally traded good and imports an intermediate input good the comparative static effects of various exogenous variables on total employment and the balance of trade are derived and compared across regimes considerable emphasis is placed on the employment effects of external disturbances both price shocks such as a rise in the price of the imported intermediate good and quantity shocks e g a slump in the demand for exportables are examined and the appropriate policy for restoring full employment is discussed in each case

the category demand effects of price promotions although price promotions have increased in both commercial use and quantity of academic research over the last decade most of the attention has been focused on their effects on brand choice and brand sales by contrast little is known about the conditions under which price promotions expand short run and long run category demand even though the benefits of category expansion can be substantial to manufacturers and retailers alike this paper studies the category demand effects of consumer price promotions across 560 consumer product categories over a 4 year period the data describe national sales in dutch supermarkets and cover virtually the entire marketing mix i e prices promotions advertising distribution and new product activity we focus on the estimation of main effects i e the dynamic category expansive impact of price promotions as well as the moderating effects of marketing intensity and competition both conduct and structure on short and long run promotional effectiveness the research design uses modern multivariate time series analysis to disentangle short run and long run effects first we conduct a series of unit root tests to determine whether or not category demand is stationary or evolving over time the results are incorporated in the specification of vector autoregressive models with exogenous variables varx models the impulse response functions derived from these varx models provide estimates of the short and long term effects of price promotions on category demand these estimates in turn are used as dependent variables in a series of second stage regressions that assess the explanatory power of marketing intensity and competition several model validation tests support the robustness of the empirical findings we present our results in the form of empirical generalizations on the main effects of price promotions on category demand in the short and the long run and through statistical tests on how these effects change with marketing intensity and competition the findings generate an overall picture of the power and limitations of consumer price promotions in expanding category demand as follows category demand is found to be predominantly stationary either around a fixed mean or a deterministic trend although the total net short term effects of price promotions are generally strong with an average elasticity of 2 21 and a more conservative median elasticity of 1 75 they rarely exhibit persistent effects instead the effects dissipate over a time period lasting approximately 10 weeks on average and their long term impact is essentially zero by contrast the successful introduction of new products into a category is more frequently associated with a permanent category demand increase several moderating effects on price promotion effectiveness exist more frequent promotions increase their effectiveness but only in the short run the use of nonprice advertising reduces the category demand effects of price promotions both in the short run and in the long run competitive structure matters as well the less oligopolistic the category the smaller the short run effectiveness of price promotions at the same time we find that the dominant form of competitive reaction either in price promotion or in advertising is no reaction short run category demand effectiveness of price promotions is lower in categories experiencing major new product introductions finally both the short and long run price promotion effectiveness is higher in perishable product categories the paper discusses several managerial implications of these empirical findings and suggests various avenues for future research overall we conclude that the power of price promotions lies primarily in the preservation of the status quo in the category

seasonal harvest patterns in multispecies fisheries fishers face multidimensional decisions when to fish what species to target and how much gear to deploy most bioeconomic models assume single species fisheries with perfectly elastic demand and focus on inter seasonal dynamics in real world fisheries vessels hold quotas for multiple species with heterogeneous biological and or market conditions that vary intra seasonally we analyze within season behavior in multispecies fisheries with individual fishing quotas accounting for stock aggregations capacity constraints and downward sloping demand numerical results demonstrate variation in harvest patterns we specifically find 1 harvests for species with downward sloping demand tend to spread out 2 spreading harvest of a high value species can cause lower value species to be harvested earlier in the season and 3 harvest can be unresponsive or even respond negatively to biological aggregation when fishers balance incentives in multispecies settings we test these using panel data from the norwegian multispecies groundfish fishery and find evidence for all three we extend the numerical model to account for transitions to management with individual fishing quotas in multispecies fisheries we show that under some circumstances fishing seasons could contract or spread out

location choice in new england trawl fisheries old habits die hard in his seminal work on common property resources h scott gordon proposed that in a fishery with multiple grounds effort would be distributed such that profit rates would be equal among them gordon s model relies on implicit assumptions that are inaccurate and lead to false conclusions in many cases in this paper we present an empirically estimated model of fishery and location choice for large trawlers in new england using a random utility framework with a nested logit model specification we use the model to test the validity of a behavioral model developed from ethnographic interviews with skippers

optimal feedback controls comparative evaluation of the cod fisheries in denmark iceland and norway the economic efficiencies of the danish icelandic and norwegian cod fisheries are examined for this purpose nonlinear aggregate models of these fisheries are constructed comparing the calculated optimal harvest and biomass quantities with the actual fisheries provides a measure of the degree of efficiency in these fisheries the comparisons confirm that the cod harvesting policies of these countries have been hugely inefficient in the past it appears that inefficiency has been increasing over the last three to four decades even after tac regulations replaced open access indicating that the management policies adopted by all three countries have failed to cure overfishing the primary purpose of this article is to compare the relative efficiency of past fish harvesting strategies in iceland norway and denmark by the term harvesting policy we mean the harvesting volume each year so efficiency here merely refers to appropriateness of the annual harvesting volumes it does not in particular refer to the relative efficiency of the fishing industries in the three countries we know that maximizing net revenue has not been an objective in any of these fisheries experience shows that the management regimes that were in place for most of the period were highly inefficient and should be expected to produce poor economic results the mere fact that these stocks feature biomass levels far below the maximum sustainable yield level strongly suggests inefficient policies iceland norway and denmark are all major fishing nations harvesting a number of fish species we have chosen to concentrate on cod fishing as this is the single most important fishragnar arnason is professor faculty of economics and business

private property and economic efficiency a study of a common pool resource abstract the british columbia halibut fishery provides a natural experiment of the effects of privatizing the commons using firm level data from the fishery 2 years before private harvesting rights were introduced the year they were implemented and 3 years afterward a stochastic frontier is estimated to test for changes in technical allocative and economic efficiency the study indicates that 1 the short run efficiency gains from privatization may take several years to materialize and can be compromised by restrictions on transferability duration and divisibility of the property right 2 substantial long run gains in efficiency can be jeopardized by preexisting regulations and the bundling of the property right to the capital stock and 3 the gains from privatization are not just in terms of cost efficiency but include important benefits in revenue and product form

intrinsic fish characteristics and intraseason production efficiency a management level bioeconomic analysis of a commercial fishery biological changes in pacific whiting merluccius productus and corresponding production yields were used to model a vertically integrated fishery from harvest through processing the seasonal bioeconomic programming model incorporated stock dynamics with the interactive economic effects of intrinsic fish quality the harvest schedule and quota allocation between heterogeneous user groups the optimal management plan would maximize discounted net industry revenues npv given a minimum spawning biomass npv was maximized when the intraseason timing of harvest coincided with the seasonal improvement in fish quality e g following spawning and or migration npv was only marginally affected however by the quota allocation between groups

allocatable fixed inputs and jointness in agricultural production implications for economic modeling allocatable fixed inputs such as land are a potentially important source of jointness in agriculture as with other causes of jointness they necessitate multiple product systems for modeling product supply and input demand in other important ways however their analytical implications are very different from other causes of jointness model specification differs demand functions for the quantities of each input used in the production of individual commodities can be derived if a primal approach is used but such allocation equations cannot in general be identified from a dual specification available allocation data are not even useful in such dual estimations

dissecting the tragedy a spatial model of behavior in the commons abstract much of the discussion of the tragedy of the commons focuses on aggregate impacts often in data poor developing country settings few non experimental empirical studies shed light on contextual circumstances driving the extent of rent dissipation and overexploitation we utilize a high resolution data set to estimate a behavioral model of fishermen s spatial choices a unique policy setting allows us to measure the degree to which individual fishermen s choices appear aimed at mitigating the tragedy of the commons in a small numbers setting we find evidence of partial mitigation in excess of what we would expect under pure self interest but short of what would occur under group maximizing behavior we also examine how contextual factors in the fishery shape the degree of cooperation within the fishing season and find evidence that competition for the common pool resource distorts fishermen s implicit cost of distance creating a form of common property inertia

a model of regulated open access resource use abstract this paper develops a model of regulated open access resource exploitation the regulatory model assumes that regulators are goal oriented choosing target harvest levels according to a safe stock concept these harvest quotas are implemented by setting season lengths conditioned on the industry fishing capacity the industry enters until rents are dissipated conditioned on season length regulations harvest levels fishing capacity season length and biomass are determined jointly using parameter estimates from the long regulated north pacific halibut fishery predictions of these variables from the regulated open access model are compared to predictions that arise from the gordon model

technological change and the tragedy of the commons the lofoten fishery over 130 years we analyze the effect of technological change on labor and total factor productivity in the lofoten fishery using detailed data for 130 years our findings support the important role of natural resources in productivity and improvements in welfare in natural resource based industries the total factor productivity has risen faster than labor productivity in the fishery indicating that the considerable technological progress in this industry has to some extent been neutralized by the decline in the fish stock open access to the fish resource most probably led to this situation

long run profit functions for multiproduct firms a long run specification of the multiproduct profit function is developed from the restricted profit function the multiproduct restricted profit function and the envelope condition are used to estimate the optimal long run levels of the quasi fixed factor formulas for long run marshallian elasticities of substitution and transformation economies of scope product specific and overall economies of scale and economic measures of capacity utilization are developed for the translog functional form the methodology is illustrated by a case study of the new england otter trawl industry

bottlenecks and the phillips curve a disaggregated keynesian model of inflation output and unemployment benchmark macroeconomic models of output and inflation combine the demand side of the economy with aggregate supply equations based upon some version of the phillips curve in contrast to classical and new classical models such as lucas i972 and sargent 1979 chs i xii and xvi in which prices jump instantaneously to market clearing levels the gradual price adjustment approach represented by tobin 1972 laidler and parkin i975 section 4 barro and grossman 1976 ch 5 sargent 1979 ch ii and ch v i okun i98i and perry i983 take wages and or prices to be predetermined at an instant in time while their rates of change depend on the level of aggregate output in the prototype complete macroeconomic model incorporating this approach output is determined by aggregate demand equations while the augmented phillips curve specifies that prices move in a direction which will tend to return output to its equilibrium value this short run keynesian long run monetarist character is typical of many structural macroeconometric models it is the standard textbook account found for example in dornbusch and fischer i98i and is implicit in much current research there are fundamental questions of consistency in the type of model just described the central difficulty is that with wages and prices predetermined the non market clearing analysis ofbarro and grossman i 976 ch 2 and malinvaud i977 is applicable but in this world the aggregate demand equations are decisive only in the keynesian regime in the other regimes which must arise at high levels of aggregate demand the effective supplies of output or labour or both must be modelled indeed at the aggregate level it is difficult to provide a coherent account of how it is possible to have output above its equilibrium value since this would require labour and output in excess of their notional supplies violating barro and grossman s min condition that quantities be determined by the short side of the market an appealing line for addressing this last difficulty is to disaggregate markets an approach taken by hansen i970 tobin i972 and barro and grossman i976 ch 5 however because each market can be in either excess supply or demand a formal fixed price general equilibrium model appears to be intractable due to the resulting multiplicity of regimes and is not attempted by these authors in this paper these problems are overcome in a disaggregated model in which

markets and rent dissipation in regulated open access fisheries abstract using a model of regulated open access resource use with markets we illustrate the potential complexity of interactions between markets product quality excess effort and regulatory behavior in fisheries our model assumes two product types one of which is processed and storable the model describes the equilibrium that results when effort responds to open access incentives and when regulators respond to effort growth by mitigating its potential harmful effects on biomass safety we use numerical simulations to demonstrate a mechanism by which market growth leads to the diversion of raw inputs into the inherently inferior market the result is a scenario in which rents are dissipated not only because excessive inputs raise costs but also because inferior product types reduce revenues we conclude with an illustrative decomposition of rent gains into revenue and cost savings gains from rationalizing a hypothetical fishery demonstrating the potential significance of market side rents

the dynamic efficiency costs of common pool resource exploitation we conduct the first empirical investigation of common pool resource users dynamic and strategic behavior at the micro level using real world data fishermen s strategies in a fully dynamic game account for latent resource dynamics and other players actions revealing the profit structure of the fishery we compare the fishermen s actual and socially optimal exploitation paths under a time specific vessel allocation policy and find a sizable dynamic externality individual fishermen respond to other users by exerting effort above the optimal level early in the season congestion is costly instantaneously but is beneficial in the long run because it partially offsets dynamic inefficiencies jel d24 q21 q22

a two country disequilibrium model the implications of wage and price rigidities for several open economy macroeconomic questions are studied in a two country framework using comparative statics and numeric analytic solutions in contrast to a small country disequilibrium approach the proposed model highlights the critical dependence of trade balance stability and other comparative static results on the specification for the export rationing scheme although coordination of export rationing policies carries potential mutual benefits it is shown that these may not be realized due to game theoretic problems the analysis also offers new illustrations and more general results which emphasize 1 the dependence of the efficacy of macroeconomic policies on the specific set of wage and price rigidities as well as quantity constraints in both countries and 2 the likelihood that a devaluation will have perverse trade balance effects in supply constrained regimes

resource rent in individual quota fisheries traditional fisheries management schemes generate incentives for vessels to maximize catch resulting in rent dissipation and overcapacity individual vessel quota management schemes change the incentives to maximize profit and have the potential to generate resource rent and reduce capacity an interesting question is whether it is the changed incentives due to individual quota or the capacity reduction due to transferability of individual quota that is most important in generating rent in this study a cost function approach is used to model and measure rent generated and potential rent in a fishery managed with individual vessel quotas