ecological economic viability as a criterion of strong sustainability under uncertainty strong sustainability according to the common definition requires that different natural and economic capital stocks be maintained as physical quantities separately yet in a world of uncertainty this cannot be guaranteed to therefore define strong sustainability under uncertainty in an operational manner we propose to use the concept of viability viability means that the different components and functions of a dynamic stochastic system at any time remain in a domain where the future existence of these components and functions is guaranteed with sufficiently high probability we develop a unifying and general ecological economic concept of viability that encompasses the traditional ecological and economic notions of viability as special cases it provides an operational criterion of strong sustainability under a mild form of uncertainty and for medium spatial and temporal scales we illustrate this concept and demonstrate its usefulness by applying it to livestock grazing management in semi arid rangelands publication ecological economic viability as a criterion of strong sustainability under uncertainty available from https www researchgate net publication 46490456 ecological economic viability as a criterion of strong sustainability under uncertainty accessed apr 3 2017

economic viability and small scale fisheries a review abstract globally over 90 of all fishing vessels and about 22 million fishers are considered small scale despite their high numbers small scale fisheries are often understudied they are usually economically and politically marginalized and therefore vulnerable to large scale threats e g globalized markets to support this sector and contribute to its sustainability we argue that it is fundamental to understand how economically viable small scale fisheries are hence the main objective of this article is to critically review and describe the current discourse on the economic viability of small scale fisheries we find that currently economic viability is mainly equated with financial viability where profitability is the goal in consideration of socio economic aspects the maintenance of nonnegative net benefits to society is often not considered in current notions of economic viability while these shortcomings have been acknowledged in some of the existing literature our review shows that they have not yet been addressed comprehensively we therefore conclude that it is necessary to develop or expand current methods to better take into account social aspects when assessing the economic viability of small scale fisheries this would help find solutions to make these fisheries less vulnerable and better equipped to face large scale processes of change

did china s tax for fee reform improve farmers welfare in rural areas abstract china enacted a rural tax reform the tax for fee reform tfr in the late 1990s a crucial but unanswered question is whether this reform improved farmers welfare in rural areas this article uses village level survey data from the chinese household income project in order to examine the effect of the tfr on farmers direct and indirect welfare we find no evidence that the direct welfare effects improved farmers net income in contrast the reform appears to have reduced the villages financing capacity and hence to have lowered their overall expenditures these indirect effects have had significant negative impacts on farmers welfare

beyond privatization institutional innovation and growth in china s large state owned enterprises abstract this article demonstrates that china s large state owned enterprises soes are not stagnant fossils waiting to die under economic reform policies this sector has undergone large change due to enhanced enterprise autonomy the impact of market forces rapid growth of domestic demand for upstream products strategic integration with the world economy and the state s policy to promote large businesses china s large soes are developing new institutional forms that do not neatly fit into existing patterns china is experimentally changing its institutions through a combination of central policy local initiative and interaction with international investment this presents a challenge to the transitional orthodoxy and to ideas concerning property rights in development economics there is not a universal model of property rights and government action that works best in all circumstances china s experience with the reform of large soes shows the diverse possibilities for effective industrial institutions

neo industrial tokyo urban development and globalisation in japan s state centred developmental capitalism this paper analyses the relation between tokyo and globalisation in the framework of regulation theory and attempts to draw theoretical implications for tokyo s current urban development regulation theorists contend that globalisation particularly global capital and finance mobility has led to the crisis of regulatory institutions that sustained the post war fordist growth regime and that the new finance market centred growth regime emerging out of the crisis in the uk and the us is now challenging other capitalist societies tokyo s urban experience in the past decade conforms to and yet deviates from regulation theory the paper argues that although local and national politics have played the most important role in reshaping tokyo s urban development it is japan s state centred developmental capitalist system that has enabled tokyo to resist the new anglo american growth regime tokyo s growth strategy in the 1990s has instead re emphasised manufacturing technology the impact of the new finance m

modelling heterogeneity in response behaviour towards a sequence of discrete choice questions a probabilistic decision process model there is a growing body of evidence in the non market valuation literature suggesting that responses to a sequence of discrete choice questions tend to violate the assumptions typically made by analysts regarding independence of responses and stability of preferences decision processes or heuristics such as value learning and strategic misrepresentation have been offered as explanations for these results while a few studies have tested these heuristics as competing hypotheses none has investigated the possibility that each explains the response behaviour of a subgroup of the population in this paper we make a contribution towards addressing this research gap by presenting a probabilistic decision process model designed to estimate the proportion of respondents employing defined heuristics we demonstrate the model on binary and multinomial choice data sources and find three distinct types of response behaviour the results suggest that accounting for heterogeneity in response behaviour may be a better way forward than attempting to identify a single heuristic to explain the behaviour of all respondents

state restructuring and local power in japan western understanding of the postwar evolution of states in advanced capitalist societies envisions a moment of fundamental transition beginning in the mid 1970s indexed by reduced government spending the privatization of public services and increased inequality among local governments regulation theory sees the process as a transition from a keynesian welfare state to a schumpeterian workfare state necessitated by the shift from a fordist to a post fordist regime of capital accumulation japan a member of the oecd and the world s second largest economy doesn t fit the political economic trends nor the model put forward by western regulation theorists japan has not experienced the decline in state spending privatization of public activity and rising inequality among local governments characterizing western oecd nations the japanese have selectively incorporated keynesian and schumpeterian ideas but in a spirit much closer to writers associated with the german historical school and always within a framework rooted in japan s own historical traditions and exigencies we document japan s departure from the western model of state restructuring and explore the theoretical implications

what to make of new york s new economy the politics of the creative field inner city ensembles featuring novel mixes of culture technology and commerce are generating synergies of production consumption and place yet this new economy of the city is also linked to contradictory economic impulses and negative effects proposing that economistic accounts have a limited ability to explain the rise of these ensembles their effects and the possibilities for policy the idea of a creative field is revised in order to analyse how politics have shaped a creative ensemble in lower manhattan it is shown that the political influence of real estate has helped to displace firms and residents of modest means and has stunted campaigns by creative sectors to access resources build institutions and upgrade capacities however a survey of creative industry politics hints at alternative policies that in the wake of the financial collapse might promote progressive ties between creative segments and modest neighbourhoods

inside china s cities institutional barriers and opportunities for urban migrants one of the most glaring legacies of 20thcentury chinese socialism is a sharp and widened divide between china s urban and rural areas china s widened urban rural divide arose from a socialist industrialization process which created a hastened heavy industrial base at the expense of its rural population china s vast rural population not only endured a standard of living far below that in the urban sector they were also denied access to many social welfare benefits and social mobility opportunities martin king whyte 1996 this urban rural gap in social and economic wellbeing together with a massive reservoir of rural surplus labor and an acute shortage of consumer goods formed the driving forces for china s change of migration control policy and for the rapid increase of rural migrants in chinese cities though the exact number of migrants is still hard to ascertain due to both a lack of consensus in the definition of migrant and the absence of an authoritative national survey migrants prominent presence in chinese cities is hardly disputable in china s largest cities for instance it is often quoted that at least one out of every five persons is a migrant and most likely a migrant from rural areas in shanghai the number of migrants rose tenfold in one decade from 0 26 million in 1981 to 2 81 million in 1993 the percentage of local residents who were migrants correspondingly rose from less than 5 percent in the early 1980 s to 21 7 percent in 1993 changming sun 1997 in beijing the number of migrants was 3 29 million in 1994 compared to a locally registered population of 10 63 million for the whole municipality and 6 million for its city districts dangsheng ji et al 1996 p 95 in city districts one out of every three persons in beijing is a temporary migrant from elsewhere most of these recorded migrants are also genuine migrants not short term visitors more than 60 percent had stayed for more than half of a year and only 17 percent had been in beijing for less than one month three quarters of all the surveyed migrant population listed business or employment as their purpose of stay ji et al 1996 pp 96 97 rural migrants account for over threequarters of all migrants in large chinese cities in shanghai for instance a survey in 1995 found that 88 1 percent of all migrants had their place of household registration in the countryside wang and zuo 1997 similarly in beijing where one expects to see a higher circulation of urban to urban migrants close to 80 percent of migrants surveyed in late 1994 were peasants before moving into beijing xiuhualiu 1996 p 112

value learning and the willingness to accept willingness to pay disparity the assumption that individual preferences are rational and consistent with standard economic theory is often appropriate but may be optimistic if consumers are uncertain about either their preferences or how the market operates both sources of uncertainty may present themselves in lab experiments exploring the well known disparity between individuals willingness to accept and willingness to pay this paper explores the role of value uncertainty in the observed disparity and finds that providing subjects with a value learning opportunity can reduce the value disparity to insignificance

storage and viability of a fishery with resource and market dephased seasonalities in this study we analyse the role of the storageregulation in a fishery s production process when theresource exploited and the market to which theproduction is exported are characterized by seasonaldephased oscillations for this purpose we built up adynamic model drawn from the french guyana shrimpfishery example the underlying objective of the modelis not the maximisation of a given criterion as wouldbe in the optimal control approach but merely themaintenance of the fishery s economical viability thefundamental principle is here to try to preserve asmany as possible viable control options theconditions to achieve and maintain this viability arecaptured in a certain number of constraints theanalysis points out periods and situations within theseason where the fishermen must anticipate theevolution of their storage to avoid violating thoseviability constraints the study also indicates howthe fishery s viability can be ensured even if theexploitation costs exceed the commercial value of thelandings for a finite part of the year however whenthe resource s and or market s oscillations are toolarge the fishery may be not viable any longer and itappears that the crisis can not be removed byinvesting in larger storage capacities

labor migration and earnings differences the case of rural china this article presents empirical evidence supporting the hypothesis that the decision of chinese rural people to migrate is affected by noneconomic forces using the 1820 rural household survey from sichuan province migration behavior and earnings are analyzed logistic probability models show that the decision to migrate is driven largely by the availability of rural non farm employment opportunities however if jobs are available in the province even at lower wages rural people will choose to stay rather than to migrate the major deterrent to migration is the lack of safety during transportation and in destination cities as well as forced separation from families moreover rural migrants are denied the legal right to reside permanently in cities furthermore findings reveal that although labor productivity in migrant activities is higher than it is in local non farm sectors the economic cost of migration in china is so high as to significantly limit reallocation one implication of this study is that without artificial barriers to labor migration the number of migratory workers would be higher since the important objective of the chinese government is to control rural to urban migration it is likely that restrictive migration policies will continue however putting aside the issue of social justice the economic efficiency loss under the chinese system should not be ignored

treating respondent uncertainty in contingent valuation a comparison of empirical treatments this research examines the impact of uncertainty on contingent valuation responses using 1 a survey of canadian landowners about willingness to accept compensation for converting cropland to forestry and 2 a survey of swedish residents about willingness to pay for forest conservation five approaches from the literature for incorporating respondent uncertainty are used and compared to the traditional random utility model with assumed certainty the results indicate that incorporating uncertainty has the potential to increase fit but could introduce additional variance while some methods for uncertainty can be an improvement over traditional approaches it is imperative to exercise caution when making systematic judgments about the effect of uncertainty on contingent valuation responses

reliability of individual valuations of public and private goods choice consistency response time and preference refinement we examined the reliability of a large set of paired comparison value judgments involving public goods private goods and sums of money as respondents progressed through a random sequence of paired choices they were each given their response time decreased and they became more consistent apparently fine tuning their responses suggesting that respondents tend to begin a hypothetical value exercise with relatively imprecise preferences and that experience in expressing preference helps reduce that imprecision reliability was greater for private than for public good choices and greater for choices between a good and a monetary amount than for choices between two goods however the reliability for public good choices was only slightly lower than for the private goods published by elsevier b v

defining viable recovery paths toward sustainable fisheries this paper develops a formal analysis of the recovery process for a fishery from crisis situations to desired levels of sustainable exploitation using the theoretical framework of viable control we define sustainability as a combination of biological economic and social constraints which need to be met for a viable fishery to exist biological constraints are based on the definition of a minimum resource stock to be preserved economic constraints relate to the existence of a guaranteed profit per vessel social constraints refer to the maintenance of a minimum size of the fleet and to the maximum speed at which fleet adjustment can take place using fleet size adjustment and fishing effort per vessel as control variables we first identify the states of this bioeconomic system for which sustainable exploitation is possible i e for which all constraints can be dynamically met such favorable states are called viable states we then examine possible transition phases from non viable to viable states we characterize recovery paths with respect to the time of crisis of the trajectory which is the number of periods during which the constraints are not respected the approach is applied to the single stock of the bay of biscay nephrops fishery the transition path identified through the viability approach is compared to the historical recovery process and to both open access and optimal harvesting scenarios

willingness to pay for renewable energy primary and discretionary choice of british households for micro generation technologies this paper documents the policy context of renewable energy production in the european union the research adopts a choice experiment approach to investigate households wtp for these renewable energy technologies in the uk the micro generation technologies comprise solar photovoltaic micro wind solar thermal heat pumps and biomass boilers and pellet stoves the study compares the results from conditional and mixed logit models which estimate the distribution of utility coefficients and then derives wtp values as a ratio of the attribute coefficient to the price coefficient with a model in which the wtp distribution is estimated directly from utility in the money space the results suggest that whilst renewable energy adoption is significantly valued by households this value is not sufficiently large for the vast majority of households to cover the higher capital costs of micro generation energy technologies

a viability analysis for a bio economic model abstract this paper presents a simple dynamic model dealing with the management of a marine renewable resource but instead of studying the ecological and economic interactions in terms of equilibrium or optimal control we pay much attention to the viability of the system or in a symmetric way to crisis situations these viability crisis situations are defined by a set of economic and biological state constraints the analytical study focuses on the compatibility between the state constraints and the controlled dynamics using the mathematical concept of viability kernel we reveal the situations and if possible management options to guarantee a perennial system going further we define overexploitation indicators by the time of crisis function in particular we point out irreversible overexploitation configurations related to the resource extinction

off season tourists and the cultural offer of a mass tourism destination the case of rimini abstract this paper assesses the potential implications on off season tourism of enhancing the cultural offer of rimini a popular italian seaside holiday destination hosting about 12 million overnight stays per year since more than 9 million of these stays are concentrated in the summer season in the last 20 years rimini has been undergoing a policy of seasonality smoothing which mainly pivots around business and cultural tourism this assessment has been carried out through discrete choice experiments submitted to a sample of about 800 tourists who visited rimini outside the summer months since tourism can be viewed as a composite good which overall utility depends on how the component characteristics are arranged the choice experiments allow to disentangle the importance and the willingness to pay of tourists for different attributes of the holiday the choice model incorporates a number of possible changes to actual tourism features which are also the subject of public debate including them in hypothetical alternative holiday packages the conditional logit analysis of the choice experiments can highlight any synergy or trade off between cultural and business tourism results suggest that business and leisure tourists share many features related to the use of the territory while there are important trade offs between these two groups and cultural tourists since business tourists have a higher willingness to extend their stay a softer budget and their demand is also complementary to the demand of summer tourists brau scorcu vici 2009 from the destination point of view investing in this market segment would be the best option although a second best however cultural tourists share with the local population of rimini many aspects of the demand of territory figini castellani vici 2009 hence cultural tourism can play a fundamental role in the intermediate season as a tool for smoothing seasonality to diversify investments and to give value to the city s cultural heritage

towards a fair constructive and consistent criticism of all valuation languages comment on kallis et al 2013 we provide critical notes to the paper by kallis et al 2013 on monetary valuation we evaluate the four criteria they propose for assessing valuation studies we argue that no clear distinction is made between monetary valuation and pricing instruments the selected criteria are more relevant to assessing policy than monetary valuation the examples provided are not representative of the diversity of valuation studies encountered in the literature moreover no clear examples are provided of where valuation and associated cost benefit analysis of environmental policy go wrong we plea for a more fair constructive and consistent criticism of all valuation languages and offer relevant issues for consideration

ordering anomalies in choice experiments this paper investigates whether responses to choice experiments ces are subject to ordering anomalies while previous research has focussed on the possibility that such anomalies relate to position in the sequence of choice tasks our research reveals that the particular order of tasks matters using a novel experimental design that allows us to test our hypotheses using simple nonparametric statistics we observe ordering anomalies in ce data similar to those recorded in the dichotomous choice contingent valuation literature those ordering effects operate in both price and commodity dimensions and are observed to compound over a series of choice tasks our findings cast serious doubt on the current practice of asking each respondent to undertake several choice tasks in a ce while treating each response as an independent observation on that individual s preferences

maximum economic yield fishery management in the face of global warming abstract this paper deals with fishery management in the face of the ecological and economic effects of global warming to achieve this a dynamic bioeconomic model and model based scenarios are considered in which the stock s growth function depends on the sea surface temperature the model is empirically calibrated for the french guiana shrimp fishery using time series collected over the period 1993 2009 three fishing effort strategies are then compared under two contrasted ipcc climate scenarios rcp 8 5 and rcp 2 6 a first harvesting strategy maintains the status quo in terms of fishing effort a more ecologically oriented strategy based on the closure of the fishery is also considered a third strategy which relates to maximum economic yield mey is based on the optimisation of the net present value derived from fishing the results first show that status quo fishing intensity combined with global warming leads to the collapse of the fishery in the long run secondly it turns out that the closure strategy preserves stock viability especially under the optimistic climate scenario thirdly the mey strategy makes it possible to satisfy bioeconomic performances requirements with positive stock and profit once again especially under the optimistic warming scenario consequently mey emerges as a relevant bioeconomic strategy in terms of adaptation to climate change but only in connection with climate change mitigation

the value of familiarity effects of knowledge and objective signals on willingness to pay for a public good we design and conduct a field experiment in which treated subjects receive a precise and objective signal regarding their knowledge about a public good before estimating their wtp for it we find that the causal effect of objective signals about the accuracy of a subject s knowledge for a public good can dramatically affect their valuation for it treatment caused a significant increase of 85 129 in wtp for well informed individuals we find no such effect for less informed subjects our results imply that wtp estimates for public goods are not only a function of true information states of the respondents but beliefs about those information states

trading off positive and negative service changes in childcare a choice experiment using a latent class modelling approach theoretically the choice of childcare mode should be influenced by the quality of the childcare attributes however such preference relations have been difficult to identify in past studies one

the effect of individual ability to choose scale heterogeneity on the valuation of environmental goods christie m gibbons j 2011 the effect of individual ability to choose scale heterogeneity on the valuation of environmental goods ecological economics 70 12 2250 2257

preference refinement in deliberative choice experiments for ecosystem service valuation choice experiments have gained considerable popularity in ecosystem service valuation in a one shot survey respondents are faced with a strenuous task asking them to discover and monetize their preferences for often unfamiliar ecosystem services in a previously unknown hypothetical market situation we present a deliberative choice experiment that aims to generate well rationalized value estimates for policy advice two aspects of deliberation discussion and time to reflect are examined in terms of their effect on preference refinement we find more comprehensive choice motives after deliberation as well as indications for preference adjustment and a slight increase in choice certainty jel q51 q57

risk and sustainability assessing fishery management strategies we develop a theoretical framework to assess the sustainability of fishery management strategies when the bioeconomic dynamics are marked by uncertainty and several conflicting objectives have to be accounted for stochastic viability ranks management strategies according to their probability to sustain economic and ecological outcomes over time the approach is extended to build stochastic sustainable production possibility frontiers representing the trade offs between sustainability objectives at any risk level given the current state of the fishery this framework is applied to a chilean fishery faced with el nino uncertainty we study the viability of effort and quota strategies when catch and biomass levels have to be sustained we show that 1 for these sustainability objectives whatever the level of the outcomes to be sustained quota based management results in a better viability probability than effort based management and 2 the fishery s historical quota levels were not sustainable given the stock levels in the early 2000s

urban renaissance as intensification building regulation and the rescaling of place governance in tokyo s high rise manshon boom during the past decade tokyo has seen a massive building boom despite a prolonged economic slump since 1990 since the 1980s central government has enacted a steady stream of building code changes that allow much larger buildings this paper argues that the recent wave of private investment in high rise intensification has been instigated by these changes to building regulations so that the form of urban restructuring and the distribution of winners and losers in the process are shaped by the central state a reverse of the previous trend of decentralisation of planning powers this restructuring of central local government relations can be understood as a creative rescaling of governance power that disrupted established democratic institutional frameworks of decision making and conflict resolution this study highlights both the centrality of land assets in japan s developmental capitalism and the continuing importance of the distinctive institutional legacies of the developmental state in structuri

choice certainty and consistency in repeated choice experiments the main objective of this study is to examine how repeated choice affects preference learning in stated preference experiments we test different hypotheses related to preference learning by analyzing response patterns and asking respondents in a choice experiment to report their experienced certainty when going through the choice tasks in a split sample test we show that follow up choice certainty questions are procedural invariant the self reported certainty results indicate that learning occurs but econometric testing procedures do not identify any significant impact of learning effects on parameter estimates or variance across choice tasks additional tests of choice consistency suggest that preferences in the choice experiment are stable and coherent

impact of cultured shrimp industry on wild shrimp fisheries analysis of price determination mechanisms and market dynamics cultured shrimp production has been growing dramatically on the world market over the last 15 years and some of the farm raised species are now considered as price indicators on the main market places one may therefore expect the price of theses cultured shrimp to have an impact on the price formation of other species and especially on wild shrimp with which they compete in this paper the authors address this question in the case of the wild shrimp penaeus subtilis exploited by the french guyana fishery south america and competing on the french market with the cultured thai shrimp back tiger a series of econometric tests issued from the co integration theory is performed between the price series of the two products these tests indicate that the two series are co integrated and that the black tiger market acts as a market leader for the french guyana shrimp product the authors then discuss the reasons of the current predominance of farm raised shrimp on wild caught product and in particular the french guyana shrimp and identify the constraints that the french market demand induces on both producers and importers in the light of this analysis a commercial strategy that would mitigate the impact of the thai shrimp on the french guyana product is suggested

unraveling the choice format effect a context dependent random utility model a few recent studies report that preferences elicited from a two alternative choice format are different from those elicited from a three alternative choice format when both choice set designs contain a status quo option we hypothesize that the choice format effect might disappear when we estimate a random utility model rum that allows for context dependent preferences based on the estimated context dependent rum we find that the choice format effect is likely the result of two offsetting effects a task complexity effect that increases the probability of choosing the status quo option and a preference matching effect which decreases the probability

addressing preference heterogeneity multiple scales and attribute attendance with a correlated finite mixing model of tap water choice unobserved heterogeneity of error scale in choice models is a recent extension of the better investigated issue of heterogeneity of taste intensity it is achieved by fitting choice panel data with specifications that simultaneously handle inter personal variation in scale and taste the aim is to separate differences in preference intensities across respondents from differences in the degree of consistency in choice behaviour or preference discrimination while accounting for correlation between the two another recent substantive issue in choice data analysis is attribute non attendance we develop a finite mixing model to address simultaneously the three issues above we empirically prove the concept on stated preference data related to tap water attributes in a study for industry regulation

stated preferences of tourists for eco efficient destination planning options abstract eco efficiency is a concept that prescribes reducing the amount of energy and natural resources used as well as wastes and pollutants discharged in the production of goods and services numerous approaches to achieving greater levels of eco efficiency have been suggested for tourism operations and destinations however none of these options have been examined with respect to tourist responses to them this paper uses a discrete choice experiment to examine visitor preferences for a set of hypothetical tourism destination eco efficiency strategies visitors preferred eco efficient planning options to business as usual scenarios the degree of support for the various planning options differed by market segments overall tourist support existed for many options that could increase the overall eco efficiency of destinations visitors were also willing to tolerate additional fees for services that might help to offset the environmental impacts of their behaviours by having respondents evaluate and trade off several resort eco efficiency strategies simultaneously the discrete choice experiment provided a more comprehensive and realistic assessment of eco efficiency options than would be possible using traditional survey methods

transformative technology and institutional transformation coevolution of biotechnology venture firms and the institutional framework in japan abstract japan is developing a national strategy for biotechnology which it sees as a transformative technology of strategic importance significant institutional transformation has occurred including changes to the legal structure of universities partly in an effort to enhance technology transfer these and other institutional changes are proving conducive to entrepreneurship and have developed alongside an increase in the number of biotechnology venture firms this paper presents an overview of these institutional transformations in the light of recent deregulation and legislative changes it posits that the emergence of bioventure firms the increase in their number and arguably their changing nature are manifestations of the coevolution of organizations with changes to the institutional framework finally it gives examples of several bioventures based on interviews conducted with the founders and chief scientists in japan and reveals some of the salient characteristics of these firms

a reconsideration of import substitution this paper studies the origins of an import substitution strategy of development summarizes the consequences of that strategy and reviews the problems that led to its failure the fundamental difficulty was its discouragement of the indigenous social learning necessary for sustained independent development the emergence of an outward oriented minimal government strategy is due to the success of korea and taiwan this strategy fails to recognize that social learning requires a strong role for national agents and that this role can be penalized by undue openness an effective strategy must protect and induce domestic learning without penalizing exporting

adding asymmetrically dominated alternatives violations of regularity and the similarity hypothesis an asymmetrically dominated alternative is dominated by one item in the set but not by another adding such an alternative to a choice set can increase the probability of choosing the item that dominates it this result points to the inadequacy of many current choice models and suggests product line strategies that might not otherwise be intuitively plausible

openness and the market friendly approach to development learning the right lessons from development experience abstract two central policy issues in economic development today are how open should a developing country be to the world economy and what should the government do or not do to promote rapid growth this paper examines these questions in relation to the highly successful east asian countries and contributes to the debate between world bank and heterodox economists the paper suggests that there has been significant convergence between the two schools on analytical and empirical issues but not on policy it takes this debate further by analyzing the principal issues still in contention

varieties of capitalism in the twentieth century of the world s multiple national variations on a basically capitalist system the paper compares the century s history of four the british and american the two pioneers whose institutions and economic behaviour patterns most closely confirm to and those of germany and japan whose institutions most significantly deviate from the prescriptions of neoclassical textbooks there is no obvious story of a long and steady process of gradual convergence capitalist rationality slowly washing out the effects of differing cultural traditions all four societies have changed in key respects finance and corporate control structures were arguably more similar in the 1920s than later by the end of the post war golden age there were signs of convergence on similar forms of managerial capitalism the crucial and for us unpredictable question is how far the transition to shareholder capitalism in britain and america over the last two decades will be duplicated in germany and japan copyright 1999 by oxford university press

the public value of improving a weather forecasting system in korea a choice experiment study abstractthe korean government plans to improve the quality of its weather forecasting system in order to increase its public utility the benefits arising from the implementation of this plan shoul

response strategies and learning in discrete choice experiments this study explores ordering effects and response strategies in repeated binary discrete choice experiments mechanism design theory and empirical evidence suggest that repeated choice tasks per respondent induce strategic behaviour we find evidence that strategic opportunities provided by the order in which choice sets are presented to respondents affect choice decisions strategic response the results suggest however that respondents may solely respond to high cost rather than low cost inconsistencies that is respondents are more cost sensitive and thus have a lower willingness to pay wtp if the same or a similar level of provision was offered in a previous choice set at a lower cost than if it was not yet the cost sensitivity and thus wtp remains unaffected if the same or a similar level of provision was offered in a previous choice set at a higher cost our findings further indicate that cost sensitivity increases and thus wtp decreases when respondents progress through the choice task with this increase decrease lessening as more choice questions are answered possible explanations are value learning and strategic learning

starting point bias in dichotomous choice valuation with follow up questioning abstract follow up questions are frequently used to improve the efficiency of dichotomous choice contingent valuation questionnaires however a number of authors e g 12 16 have noted a significant difference between the wtp distributions implied by initial and follow up question responses this paper investigates starting point bias as one explanation for the phenomenon we develop a model of starting point bias in the context of dichotomous choice questioning with follow up using a monte carlo simulation to illustrate the potential bias imparted to wtp estimates an application is provided based on data from a cv study in northcentral iowa

context dependent preferences the standard theory of choice based on value maximization associates with each option a real value such that given an offered set the decision maker chooses the option with the highest value despite its simplicity and intuitive appeal there is a growing body of data that is inconsistent with this theory in particular the relative attractiveness of x compared to y often depends on the presence or absence of a third option z and the market share of an option can actually be increased by enlarging the offered set we review recent empirical findings that are inconsistent with value maximization and present a context dependent model that expresses the value of each option as an additive combination of two components a contingent weighting process that captures the effect of the background context and a binary comparison process that describes the effect of the local context the model accounts for observed violations of the standard theory and provides a framework for analyzing context dependent p

designing transactions without framing effects in iterative question formats abstract several studies document that iterative question formats used in contingent valuation studies produce anomalies in respondent behavior that appear to threaten the validity of welfare estimates by decomposing iterative question formats into their ascending and descending sequences we show that these anomalies occur only in ascending sequences we describe the conditions under which comparable patterns of behavior are likely to be found in other iterative question formats that begin with a discrete willingness to pay question we then develop a unified explanation of these anomalies using our model of framing based on prospect theory we provide the first head to head test of rival explanations of these behavioral patterns by developing refutable hypotheses for the strategic behavior yea saying anchoring and cost expectations models finally based on our own statistically robust model we show how these anomalies can be eliminated without loss of the statistical efficiency of most iterative question formats

estimation of the public benefits of urban water supply improvements in ethiopia a choice experiment improving existing drinking water supply services in developing countries depends crucially on available financial resources cost recovery rates of these services are typically low while demand for more reliable services is high and rapidly growing most stated preference based demand studies in the developing world apply the contingent valuation method and focus on rural areas this study examines household willingness to pay wtp for improved water supply services in a choice experiment in an urban area in ethiopia a country with the lowest water supply coverage in sub saharan africa the design of the choice experiment allows estimation of the value of both drinking water supply reliability and safety the estimated economic values can be used in policy appraisals of improved supply investment decisions despite significant income constraints households are willing to pay up to 80 extra for improved levels of water supply over and above their current water bill women and households living in the

the investment profits nexus in east asian industrialization abstract both orthodox and heterodox interpretations of east asian industrialization have concentrated on questions of resource allocation and neglected overall capital accumulation and the role of government in accelerating it this paper argues that corporate profits and other profit related incomes were the main source of investment in the most successful east asian economies government policies played a major role in promoting capital accumulation by creating rents and animating the dynamic interactions between profits and investment this was achieved through a broader set of measures than those usually identified as selective industrial policies

a stochastic viability approach to ecosystem based fisheries management academia and management agencies show a growing interest for ecosystem based fishery management ebfm however the way to operationalize this approach remains challenging the present paper illustrates how the concepts of stochastic co viability which accounts for dynamic complexities uncertainties risk and sustainability constraints can be useful for the implementation of ebfm in the present case this concept is used to identify fishing strategies that satisfy both ecological conservation and economic sustainability in a multi species multi fleet context economic viability analysis eva and the broader co viability analysis cva are proposed to expand the usual population viability analysis pva and precautionary approach an illustration is proposed using data on the fisheries of bay of biscay france exploiting the stocks of nephrops and hake stochastic simulations show how cva can guarantee both ecological stock and economic profit sustainability using 2008 as a baseline the model is used to identify fishing efforts that ensure such co viability c 2012 elsevier b v all rights reserved

convergent validity of attribute based choice questions in stated preference studies the application of attribute based choice questions is well established in the marketing literature but there are unique aspects of the design that warrant investigation to assess their validity for economic welfare estimation three design issues are investigated in this paper 1 the placement of the monetary stimulus policy cost to respondents in the sequence of attributes 2 the number of policy alternatives respondents are asked to consider in choice questions two versus three and 3 the inclusion versus exclusion of a status quo alternative in choice questions the data used to implement these investigations are from a survey designed to estimate the value maine residents place on a farmland conservation easement program tests of convergent validity indicate that the placement of the monetary stimulus first versus last in the list of attributes did not affect estimates of preference parameters significant differences between questions with three versus two alternatives did occur and the inclusion exclusion of a status quo alternative did not affect preference parameters

deriving and testing efficient estimates of wtp distributions in destination choice models estimation of welfare measures is often a dominant driver in the empirical literature on nonmarket valuation to this end qualitative choice models based on random utility theory have been widely employed in outdoor recreation studies a frequent goal of applied studies has been the estimation of welfare changes associated with site attribute changes at recreation sites in order to inform regulatory policy and resource management we review the evolution of the methodology of random utility theory in this field with a focus on taste heterogeneity models and then focus on the recent proposal of specifying utility in the wtp space train k weeks m 2005 discrete choice models in preference space and willing to pay space in scarpa r alberini a eds applications of simulation methods in environmental and resource economics chapter 1 springer dordrecht pp 1 16 our empirical application is on outdoor alpine recreation data we emphasize the efficiency and direct testing that using the maximum simulated likelihood estimator affords to practitioners using the wtp space approach and illustrate these with examples

are patient regarding preferences stable evidence from a laboratory experiment with physicians and medical students from different countries abstract we quantify patient regarding preferences by fitting a bounded rationality model to data from an incentivized laboratory experiment where chinese medical doctors german medical students and chinese medical students decide under different payment schemes we find a remarkable stability in patient regarding preferences when comparing subject pools and we cannot reject the hypothesis of equal patient regarding preferences in the three groups the results suggest that a health economic experiment can provide knowledge that reach beyond the student subject pool and that the preferences of decision makers in one cultural context can be of relevance in a very different cultural context

learning and fatigue effects revisited investigating the effects of accounting for unobservable preference and scale heterogeneity using multiple choice tasks per respondent in discrete choice experiment studies increases the amount of available information however respondents learning and fatigue may lead to changes in observed utility function preference taste parameters as well as the variance in its error term scale they need to be controlled to avoid potential bias a sizable body of empirical research offers mixed evidence in terms of whether these ordering effects are observed we point to a significant component in explaining these differences we show how accounting for unobservable preference and scale heterogeneity can influence the magnitude of observed ordering effects

internal consistency of choice internal consistency of choice has been a central concept in economics decision theory and social choice this idea is essentially confused we cannot determine whether a choice function is consistent without referring to something external to choice e g objectives values the standard results have to be reexamined in this light kenneth j arrow s general possibility theorem is extended in this paper without demanding any internal consistency of social choice or any notion of social rationality copyright 1993 by the econometric society

the determinants of temporary rural to urban migration in china this paper evaluates the impact of various explanatory factors on temporary rural to urban migration in china using a series of probit models of the migration decision the empirical basis of this work is a sample of 11 924 individuals age 16 35 years drawn from the 1995 data of the chinese household income project chip we find that the profiles for migration age and migration education are both quadratic with the least educated and most educated members of rural society being less likely to migrate in addition the marginal effect of education tends to be higher for men than for women an increase in farming income reduces the probability of migration while the amount of land controlled by a household does not have a significant effect on migration in most provinces

dynamic learning and context dependence in sequential attribute based stated preference valuation questions a hybrid stated preference model is presented that combines the referendum contingent valuation response format with an experimentally designed set of attributes a sequence of valuation questions is asked to a random sample in a mailout mail back format econometric analysis shows greater discrimination between alternatives in the final choice in the sequence and the vector of preference parameters shifts lead and lag choice sets have a structural influence on current choices and unobserved factors induce positive correlation across the responses these results indicate that people learn about their preferences for attributebased environmental goods by comparing attribute levels across choice sets

does accounting for preference heterogeneity improve the forecasting of a random utility model a case study abstract this paper examines the out of sample forecasting performance of several random utility models of recreation behavior the application is salmon fishing on lake michigan in 1996 and 1997 with the quality of fishing as measured by catch rates better in 1997 than in 1996 the models examined are a logit model two random parameters logit rpl models and a latent class logit lcl model results indicate that the rpl and lcl models forecast equally well and by at least one measure the logit model outperforms them both results also raise the possibility that recreational fishing decisions have a dynamic component

migration remittances and agricultural productivity in china in our paper we have used the new economics of labor migration framework to trace the complex linkages that exist among migration remittances and agricultural productivity in china constraints in the operation of on farm labor and capital or insurance markets or institutions provide households with a motivation to migrate and distort on farm operations when labor leaves in our household sample the net impact of migration and remittances on maize production is negative excerpt

maximin viability and sustainability the maximin criterion defines the highest utility level that can be sustained in an intergenerational equity perspective the viability approach makes it possible to characterize all the economic trajectories sustaining a given not necessarily maximal utility level in this paper we exhibit the strong links between maximin and viability we show that the value function of the maximin problem can be obtained in the viability framework and that the maximin path is a particular viable path this result allows us to extend the recommendations of the maximin approach beyond optimality to characterize the sustainability of economic trajectories which differ from the maximin path attention is especially paid to non negative net investment at maximin accounting prices which is shown to be necessary to maintain the productive capacity of the economy whether the development path is optimal or not our results provide a new theoretical ground to account for sustainability in imperfect economies based on maximin prices

effects on welfare measures of alternative means of accounting for preference heterogeneity in recreational demand models multiattribute revealed preference data are used to investigate heterogeneity in a sample of kayakers for a panel of whitewater sites in ireland this article focuses on a comparison of preference heterogeneity using a random parameter logit model with correlated tastes and a latent class model in terms of the implications for welfare measures of environmental quality and site access changes recreationalists skill levels are found to affect preferences in both approaches statistics for the estimated distribution of welfare changes for the average respondent are computed for changes in site attributes but contrary to previous work these are found to be of similar magnitude

the influence of task complexity on consumer choice a latent class model of decision strategy switching the literature indicating that person context and task specific factors cause consumers to utilize different decision strategies has generally failed to affect the specification of choice models used by practitioners and academics alike who still tend to assume an utility maximizing omniscient indefatigable consumer this article 1 introduces decision strategy selection within a maintained compensatory framework into aggregate choice models via latent classes which arise because of task complexity 2 it demonstrates that within an experimental choice task the model reflects changing aggregate preferences as choice complexity changes and as the task progresses the import of these findings for current practice model interpretation and future research needs is examined

designing choice sets for stated preference methods the effects of complexity on choice consistency abstract we vary the complexity of choice sets used in stated preference methods to evaluate the impact on choice consistency we define five measures of complexity that capture either the amount of information or the correlational structure of information in a choice set using these measures as randomly assigned treatments in a large experiment we analyze the consistency of respondents choices using a heteroskedastic multinomial logit model we find that i all of our measures of choice set complexity affect choice consistency ii changes in the correlational structure of information have the largest impact on choice consistency and iii choice complexity significantly distorts welfare estimates our results confirm economists initial worry that moving from contingent valuation to conjoint methods will increase complexity induced choice inconsistency however our analysis also shows that these negative impacts may be mitigated if precautions are taken at the design and estimation stages of stated preference methods

using a choice experiment to account for preference heterogeneity in wetland attributes the case of cheimaditida wetland in greece abstract this paper aims to assist policy makers in formulating efficient and sustainable wetland management policies in accordance with the ramsar convention and the european union water framework directive 2000 60 ec by providing results of a valuation study on the cheimaditida wetland in greece a choice experiment is employed to estimate the values of changes in several ecological social and economic functions that cheimaditida wetland provides to the greek public in addition to the conditional logit model a random parameter logit model a random parameter logit model with interactions and a latent class model are estimated to account for heterogeneity in the preferences of the public for the various functions of the wetland the results reveal that there is considerable preference heterogeneity across the public and on average they derive positive and significant values from sustainable management of this wetland the estimated economic benefits of sustainable wetland management are weighed against the costs of alternative wetland management scenarios results of this cost benefit analysis can aid in the design of socially optimal policies for sustainable management of the cheimaditida wetland with possible implications for other similar wetlands in greece and the rest of europe

estimating the willingness to pay for water services in developing countries a case study of the use of contingent valuation surveys in southern haiti progress in improving the quality and quantity of water used by people in rural areas of the developing world has been unsatisfactory in two respects 1 supplies that have been built are frequently neither used correctly nor properly maintained and 2 extension of improved service to unserved populations has been slow though this poor record is not the result of a single factor a major impediment to improved performance is inadequate information on the response of consumers to new service options the behavioral assumptions that typically underlie most rural water supply planning efforts are simple it is commonly assumed that so long as financial requirements do not exceed 5 of income rural consumers will choose to abandon their existing water supply in favor of the improved system several reviews by the world bank bilateral donors and water supply agencies in developing countries have shown however that this simple model of behavioral response to improved water supplies has usually proved incorrect 1 in rural areas many of those served by new systems have chosen to continue with their traditional water use practices

heterogeneous preferences regarding global climate change we examine the structure of preferences for mitigating impacts of global climate change that will not occur during the lifetimes of most who are alive today because no market data exist for such distant markets a statedpreference approach is used the analysis is based on the random parameters logit model and the results indicate substantial heterogeneity in respondent preferences that mean willingness to pay is a significant and increasing function of the scope of the impact and provocatively that respondents have the same preferences over the two very different time horizons that we consider e examine the structure of preferences for mitigating impacts of global climate change that will not occur during the lifetimes of most who are alive today studies using current market data have estimated the potential costs of climate change on agriculture mendelsohn nordhaus shaw 1994 and on other aspects of measured production nordhaus 1994 but market data can not reveal the willingness of those currently alive to pay for measures to mitigate impacts that may not happen for 100 years or more there is serious public discussion involving diplomats at the highest levels about measures to mitigate emissions that would cost the united states alone 100 to 200 billion dollars annually therefore estimating the willingness of those currently alive to pay for mitigation measures is not a fanciful exercise but rather a crucial effort to determine how much mitigation should be undertaken it is the preferences of those alive today regarding acceptable levels of climate impacts and not the unknowable preferences of those who do not yet exist that will ultimately determine how much mitigation we pursue in the next quarter century as this question cannot be answered with market data we use the stated preference sp approach and elicit preferences for preventing climate change induced impacts a host of climate change impacts have been enumerated this study focuses on one type of impact that may be important but has received little attention from economists scientists have predicted that widespread ecosystem shifts may accompany changes in climate vemap 1995 ecosys tem shifts are likely to evolve slowly indicating that lost use values are likely to be small for those alive today yet the public may still be willing and asked to pay for mitigation measures that are designed to slow the transformation of ecosystems the current debate over climate change demon strates two things the first is that some people do care about long term changes that will never affect them or perhaps even their children the second is that preferences regarding the impacts of climate change are very heterogeneous as other members of the public appear much less concerned long term horizons combined with heterogeneous prefer ences makes ecosystem shifts a useful place to begin analyzing preferences for mitigating climate change im pacts a stated preference survey was designed that asked respondents to choose their most preferred program to reduce ecological impacts from a set menu of five or six different programs the programs varied in terms of costs the degree of ecosystem change and in the mitigation method four different menus provided to each respondent yielded four distinct valuation responses section ii de scribes the random parameters logit model for repeated choices that allows for a flexible correlation structure based on heterogeneous preferences the ecosystem change and the stated preference survey are discussed in section iii in section iv we estimate the random parameters model and estimate the willingness to pay to prevent various levels of ecosystem change section v concludes with a discussion of how the scope of the impact preference heterogeneity and the time horizon affect willingness to pay

changing with the tide semiparametric estimation of preference dynamics we contrast the discovered preference hypothesis against the theory of coherent arbitrariness in a split sample stated choice experiment on flood risk exposure a semiparametric local multinomial logit model is developed as an alternative to the swait and louviere 1993 test procedure controlling for preference dynamics within and between samples the proposed model supports the discovered preference hypothesis by means of a decaying starting point bias the swait and louviere 1993 test procedure reaches a different conclusion it rejects the assumption of stable preferences but most preference dynamics tend to be smoothed out causing a more erratic pattern of preference dynamics

monitoring choice task attribute attendance in nonmarket valuation of multiple park management services does it matter land management in alpine parks provides multifunctional services to separate groups of users choice experiments can be used to derive estimates of value for different management attri butes however little research has been conducted on how frequently respondents ignore attributes used to describe policy management scenarios we fill this gap using an approach that identifies and compares both serial and choice task attribute nonattendance addressing five different visitor types our results indicate that accounting for choice task nonatten dance significantly improves model fit and yield estimates of marginal willingness to pay with a more plausible pattern of signs and greater efficiency jel q24 q51 i introduction the effects of park management policies on outdoor recreation are increasingly coming under public scrutiny alpine park land is among the most valuable land in terms of outdoor recreation park manage ment decisions are often controversial be cause of differences between objectives pursued by conservationists and the tourist industry parkland management agencies find it increasingly difficult to fund all the services needed to facilitate the ever broad ening variety of outdoor recreation activi ties this is further exacerbated by the increasing expectations for high quality recreational experiences by a population of recreationists with a heightened sensitivity to environmental and conservation issues such a situation widens the scope for multiattribute nonmarket valuation meth ods especially for those methods capable of capturing and modeling the preferences of heterogeneous visitors who seek to pursue a variety of activities in the land under study our research reports the results of a study designed to address attribute nonattendance henceforth abbreviated as an a which despite being quite a common decision heuristic has only recently begun to be explored by analysts with this decision heuristic respondents ignore some of the described attributes in their evaluation of alternatives within a given choice task they hence act as if a zero weight were assigned to the ignored attributes in the utility of the respective alternatives we study this issue by using a well known statistical model of discrete choice the multinomial logit mnl model this random utility model is often used for the purpose of multi attribute nonmarket valuation but the effects of accounting for an a are still rela tively unexplored information on an a is commonly collected by questioning each respondent at the end of the sequence of choice tasks respondents are asked to list those attributes that they feel they have

discrete modelling of supply response under uncertainty the case of the fishery abstract in the absence of complete control in a regulated industry effective management requires prediction of firms behavioral responses to public policy this paper develops a discrete choice model of supply response under uncertainty and applies it to fishery choice problems of new england fishing firms while fishermen demonstrate a bias towards remaining within the same fishery sufficient incentives in terms of changes in expected returns and risk are shown to elicit response due to extreme uncertainty concerning population dynamics of fish stocks a satisficing approach to management facilitated by this type of modelling may be more appropriate than bioeconomic optimization

new perspectives on east asian development conventional explanations of rapid growth in east asia have focused on the efficient allocation of resources resulting from market led outward oriented strategies this study challenges that approach east asian success has centred around the accumulation dynamic both because of its direct importance to the growth process and also because of its close and interdependent linkages with exports on this basis the study considers the institutions and policies which were used to manage economic rents in support of rapid growth and to ensure a more strategic and orderly integration into the world economy the study also examines the contribution of regional trade and investment flows to east asian industrialisation the potential for replicating similar strategies is considered

estimating stated preferences with rated pair data environmental health and employment effects of energy programs abstract respondents stated preferences for attributes related to various electricity generation scenarios are analyzed using a series of pairwise ratings multiple observations for each respondent facilitate estimating individual scale parameters scale estimates can identify uninformative rating patterns and make it possible to delete such observations or adjust wtp calculations cross section time series analysis of the data indicates that nonprice attributes increase in salience during the course of the experiment thus later responses may be better indicators of preferences than earlier responses comparisons of polychotomous with dichotomous models indicate that most respondents relative preference ratings are not simply dichotomous but discriminate systematically along the rating scale