fiscal decentralisation the knowledge economy and school teachers wages in urban china abstractwe examine how fiscal decentralisation and progress towards the development of a knowledge intensive economy has affected teachers wages in china utilising panel data from 2001 to 2013 we find that fiscal decentralisation has a negative impact on teachers wages and that this effect is magnified through a deepening of the knowledge economy while the knowledge economy itself has no effect on teachers wages the findings suggest that incentives being offered to local administrators need to be revisited if china is convinced of the need to increase teacher quality in ways suited to the knowledge economy which it wishes to construct

neighborhood information exchange and voter participation an experimental study we study the effect of social embeddedness on voter turnout by investigating the role of information about other voters decisions we do so in a participation game in which we distinguish between early and late voters each late voter is told about one early voter s turnout decision cases are distinguished where the voters are allies support the same group or adversaries with opposing preferences and where they are uncertain about each other s preferences our experimental results show that the social embeddedness matters this information increases aggregate turnout by approximately 50 the largest effect is observed for allies early voters strategically try to use their first mover position and late voters respond to this

no price like home global house prices 1870 2012 how have house prices evolved in the long run this paper presents annual house price indices for 14 advanced economies since 1870 based on extensive data collection we are able to show for the first time that house prices in most industrial economies stayed constant in real terms from the 19th to the mid 20th century but rose sharply in recent decades land prices not construction costs hold the key to understanding the trajectory of house prices in the long run residential land prices have surged in the second half of the 20th century but did not increase meaningfully before we argue that before world war ii dramatic reductions in transport costs expanded the supply of land and suppressed land prices since the mid 20th century comparably large land augmenting reductions in transport costs no longer occurred increased regulations on land use further inhibited the utilization of additional land while rising expenditure shares for housing services increased demand

a theory of voting equilibria a voting equilibrium arises when the voters in an electorate acting in accordance with both their preferences for the candidates and their perceptions of the relative chances of various pairs of candidates being in contention for victory generate an election result that justifies their perceptions voting equilibria always exist and the set of equilibria can vary substantially with the choice of voting system we compare equilibria under the plurality rule approval voting and the borda system we consider a candidate positioning game and find that the plurality rule imposes little restriction on the position of the winning candidate in three candidate races while approval voting leads to a winner positioned at the median of the voter distribution we contrast campaign activities intended to influence voter preferences with activities meant to influence only perceptions of candidate viability

teacher quality in educational production tracking decay and student achievement growing concerns over the inadequate achievement of u s students have led to proposals to reward good teachers and penalize or fire bad ones the leading method for assessing teacher quality is value added modeling vam which decomposes students test scores into components attributed to student heterogeneity and to teacher quality implicit in the vam approach are strong assumptions about the nature of the educational production function and the assignment of students to classrooms in this paper i develop falsification tests for three widely used vam specifications based on the idea that future teachers cannot influence students past achievement in da ta from north carolina each of the vams exclusion restrictions are dramatically viola ted in particular these models indicate large effects of 5th grade teachers on 4th grade t est score gains i also find that conventional measures of individual teachers value added fade out very quickly and are at best weakly related to long run effects i discuss implic ations for the use of vams as personnel tools

measuring the impacts of teachers i evaluating bias in teacher value added estimates are teachers impacts on students test scores value added a good measure of their quality one reason this question has sparked debate is disagreement about whether value added va measures provide unbiased estimates of teachers causal impacts on student achievement we test for bias in va using previously unobserved parent characteristics and a quasi experimental design based on changes in teaching sta using school district and tax records for more than one million children we nd that va models which control for a student s prior test scores exhibit little bias in forecasting teachers impacts on student achievement although teachers have substantial impacts

measuring the impacts of teachers ii teacher value added and student outcomes in adulthood abstract are teachers impacts on students test scores value added a good measure of their quality this question has sparked debate partly because of a lack of evidence on whether high value ad

how teachers unions affect education production this study helps to explain why measured school inputs appear to have little effect on student outcomes particularly for cohorts educated since 1960 teachers unionization can explain how public schools simultaneously can have more generous inputs and worse student performance using panel data on united states school districts i identify the effect of teachers unionization through differences in the timing of collective bargaining especially timing determined by the passage of state laws that facilitate teachers unionization i find that teachers unions increase school inputs but reduce productivity sufficiently to have a negative overall effect on student performance union effects are magnified where schools have market power

sustainability and technical progress a rigorous model connects together the following three basic concepts 1 sustainability meaning the generalized future power of an economy to consume over time 2 green nnp meaning a current measure of national income that subtracts off from gnp not just depreciation of capital but also more generally depletion of environmental assets evaluated at current efficiency prices 3 technological progress meaning a projection onto the future of the so called solow residual a simple general formula is derived some crude calculations suggest a possibly strong effect of the residual which hints that our best present estimates of long term sustainability may be largely driven by predictions of future technological progress

behavior in group contests a review of experimental research group contests are ubiquitous some examples include warfare between countries competition between political parties team incentives within firms group sports and rent seeking in order to succeed members of the same group have incentives to cooperate with each other by expending individual efforts however since effort is costly each member also has an incentive to abstain from expending any effort and instead free ride on the efforts of other members contest theory shows that the intensity of competition between groups and the amount of free riding within groups depend on the group size sharing rule group impact function contest success function and heterogeneity of players we review experimental studies testing these theoretical predictions almost all studies of behavior in group contests find significant over expenditure of effort relative to the theory we discuss potential explanations for such over expenditure including the utility of winning bounded rationality relative payoff maximization parochial altruism and social identity despite over expenditure most studies find support for the comparative statics predictions of the theory with the exception of the group size paradox finally studies show that there are effective mechanisms that can promote within group cooperation and conflict resolution mechanisms that can de escalate and potentially eliminate between group conflict

do capitalization effects for public goods reveal the public s willingness to pay this article develops a welfare theoretic framework for interpreting evidence on the impacts of public programs on housing markets we extend rosen s hedonic model to explain how housing prices capitalize exogenous shocks to public goods and externalities the model predicts that trading between heterogeneous buyers and sellers will drive a wedge between these capitalization effects and welfare changes we test this hypothesis in the context of changes in measures of school quality in five metropolitan areas results from boundary discontinuity designs suggest that capitalization effects understate parents willingness to pay for public school improvements by as much as 75

regional decentralization and fiscal incentives federalism chinese style abstract aligning the interests of local governments with market development is an important issue for developing and transition economies using a panel data set from china we investigate the relationship between provincial government s fiscal incentives and provincial market development we report three empirical findings first we find that during the period of fiscal contracting system the discrepancy between ex ante contracts and ex post implementation was relatively small suggesting that the fiscal contracts were credible second we find a much higher correlation about four times between the provincial government s budgetary revenue and its expenditure during 1980s and 1990s as compared to 1970s demonstrating that provincial governments faced much stronger ex post fiscal incentives after reform third we find that stronger ex ante fiscal incentives measured by the contractual marginal retention rate of the provincial government in its budgetary revenue are associated with faster development of the non state sector as well as more reforms in the state sector in the provincial economy this holds even when we control for the conventional measure of fiscal decentralization finally we compare federalism chinese style to federalism russian style

the paradox of voter participation a laboratory study it is widely believed that rational choice theory is grossly inconsistent with empirical observations about voter turnout we report the results of an experiment designed to test the voter turnout predictions of the rational choice palfrey rosenthal model of participation with asymmetric information we find that the three main comparative statics predictions are observed in the data the size effect whereby turnout goes down in larger electorates the competition effect whereby turnout is higher in elections that are expected to be close and the underdog effect whereby voters supporting the less popular alternative have higher turnout rates we also compare the quantitative magnitudes of turnout to the predictions of nash equilibrium we find that there is undervoting for small electorates and overvoting for large electorates relative to nash equilibrium these deviations from nash equilibrium are consistent with the logit version of quantal response equilibrium which provides a good fit to the data and can also account for significant voter turnout in very large elections

macroeconomic implications of agglomeration cities exist because of the productivity gains that arise from clustering production and workers a process called agglomeration how important is agglomeration for aggregate growth this paper constructs a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of cities and uses it to estimate the effect of local agglomeration on aggregate growth we combine aggregate time series and city level panel data to estimate the model s parameters via generalized method of moments the estimates imply a statistically and economically significant impact of local agglomeration on the growth rate of per capita consumption raising it by about 10

evaluating the social optimality of durable public good provision using the housing price response to public investment recent empirical work in public finance uses the housing price response to public investment to assess the efficiency of local durable public good provision this paper explores the theoretical justification for this technique it points out that the logic justifying the technique for evaluating non durable public good provision does not translate to the durable case a model in which investment is determined by the interaction between a budget maximizing bureaucrat and a community s residents is used to demonstrate that the technique can falsely predict under provision falsely predict over provision or perform without error

the concept of income in a general equilibrium this paper derives a concept of aggregate real income for a competitive economy in general equilibrium consisting of heterogeneous infinitely lived people and relates it to current and future consumption possibilities an important characteristic of our measure of income which we call real income is that deflation is carried out using a consumption deflator rather than any price index of output we suggest that it may be inappropriate to regard capital gains as income we also present a coherent treatment of the effects of changes to the terms of trade on real income and explain the implications of this for resourceexporting economies hicks 1939 defined income as the maximum amount a man can spend and still be as well off at the end of the week as at the beginning since then there has been a succession of attempts to apply this definition the problem is as hicks acknowledged that the correct interpretation of as well off is by no means clear weitzman 1976 and asheim 1997 suggest that income is equal to the level of consumption which could be sustained indefinitely out of the capitalized value of current income and equate this to being as well off at the end of the week as at the beginning eisner 1988 argues specifically that in a total incomes system effects arising from asset price changes and conventionally regarded as capital gains should be included with income here building on earlier work by sefton and weale 1996 asheim and weitzman 2001 and pemberton and ulph 2001 we provide a comprehensive account of the implications of the idea that as well off should be understood to mean that the present discounted value of current and future utility should be unchanged over the interval considered we work in the context of a general equilibrium taking the prices established in the general equilibrium as given we first look at income from the production side showing that in an economy where prices and the interest rates satisfy an intertemporal efficiency condition income along an equilibrium path can be interpreted as a weighted average of the value of the current and future consumption bundle plus a term adjusting for changes in the nominal price level converting prices to real prices by deflating by the divisia consumption price index removes the need for this adjustment these results are suggestive first they offer a way of defining the income of a household entirely in terms of its consumption possibilities second they indicate that to calculate real income deflation is best carried out using a price index of consumption this is a substantial divergence from current national accounting practice third because we have assumed constant returns there is a trivial aggregation result that aggregate income is equal to the sum of the incomes from the individual sectors

searching for effective teachers with imperfect information teaching may be the most scrutinized occupation in the economy over the eaching may be the most scrutinized occupation in the economy over the past four decades empirical researchers many of them economists have past four decades empirical researchers many of them economists have accumulated an impressive amount of evidence on teachers the heteroaccumulated an impressive amount of evidence on teachers the heterogeneity in teacher productivity the rise in productivity associated with teaching geneity in teacher productivity the rise in productivity associated with teaching credentials and on the job experience rates of turnover the costs of recruitment credentials and on the job experience rates of turnover the costs of recruitment the relationship between supply and quality the effect of class size and the monetary the relationship between supply and quality the effect of class size and the monetary value of academic achievement gains over a student s lifetime since the passage value of academic achievement gains over a student s lifetime since the passage of the no child left behind act along with a number of state level educational of the no child left behind act along with a number of state level educational initiatives the data needed to estimate individual teacher performance based on initiatives the data needed to estimate individual teacher performance based on student achievement gains have become more widely available however there have student achievement gains have become more widely available however there have been relatively few efforts to examine the implications of this voluminous literature been relatively few efforts to examine the implications of this voluminous literature on teacher performance in this paper we ask what the existing evidence implies on teacher performance in this paper we ask what the existing evidence implies for how school leaders might recruit evaluate and retain teachers for how school leaders might recruit evaluate and retain teachers we begin by summarizing the evidence on fi ve key points referring to existing we begin by summarizing the evidence on fi ve key points referring to existing work and to evidence we have accumulated from our research with the nation s work and to evidence we have accumulated from our research with the nation s two largest school districts los angeles and new york city first teachers display two largest school districts los angeles and new york city first teachers display considerable heterogeneity in their effects on student achievement gains the stanconsiderable heterogeneity in their effects on student achievement gains the standard deviation across teachers in their impact on student achievement gains is on dard deviation across teachers in their impact on student achievement gains is on the order of 0 1 to 0 2 student level standard deviations which would improve the the order of 0 1 to 0 2 student level standard deviations which would improve the

deliberation preference uncertainty and voting rules a deliberative committee is a group of at least two individuals who first debate about what alternative to choose prior to these same individuals voting to determine the choice we argue first that uncertainty about individuals private preferences is necessary for full information sharing and second demonstrate in a very general setting that the condition under which unanimity can support full information revelation in debate amounts to it being common knowledge that all committee members invariably share identical preferences over the alternatives it follows that if ever there exists an equilibrium with fully revealing debate under unanimity rule there exists an equilibrium with fully revealing debate under any voting rule moreover the converse is not true of majority rule if there is uncertainty about individuals preferences

dynamic inefficiency in an economy with land contrary to the belief that capital over accumulation is impossible in an economy with land i e a non reproducible factor of production this paper shows that the possibility of dynamic inefficiency depends on the income share of land and examines the historical tendencies of the income share of land in the u s

this blessed plot when should capital gains on land be regarded as income national balance sheets for a number of advanced economies show land to be a valuable form of natural capital whose value has increased sharply over the last twenty years or so this paper investigates when or whether capital gains on land should be counted as a component of income while development projects can lead to increases in rental rates and land values it is shown that although the benefits any project should be counted as income increases in rental rates and land values should not normally be seen as additional real income however if land benefits from exogenous land saving technical progress the resulting capital gains can be seen as income applying the same principle to human capital it is shown on a steady growth path that these capital gains are equal to weitzman s 1997 growth premium in the relationship between income and sustainable consumption

communication and voting in multi party elections an experimental study we investigate communication and costly voting in multi party election experiments turnout is consistently lower across electorate communication as compared with restricted communication within parties voters are more likely to choose the strategic voting option at the outset in restricted communication but more likely to start deliberation by stating their first preference when unrestricted distributions of earnings are more inequitable when communication is restricted and the candidate preferred by the minority of voters is more likely to win we also find that even restricted communication significantly increases participation and strategic voting by swing voters above and beyond induced identity effects

historical property rights sociality and the emergence of impersonal exchange in long distance trade this laboratory experiment explores the extent to which impersonal exchange emerges from personal exchange with opportunities for long distance trade we design a three commodity production and exchange economy in which agents in three geographically separated villages must develop multilateral exchange networks to import a good only available abroad for treatments we induce two distinct institutional histories to investigate how past experience with prop erty rights affects the evolution of specialization and exchange we find that a history of unenforced property rights hinders our subjects ability to develop the requisite personal social arrangements to support specialization and effec tively exploit impersonal long distance trade jel c90 d23 d5 p 4

the effects of exposure to better neighborhoods on children new evidence from the moving to opportunity experiment the moving to opportunity mto experiment offered randomly selected families housing vouchers to move from high poverty housing projects to lower poverty neighborhoods we analyze mto s impacts on children s long term outcomes using tax data we find that moving to a lower poverty neighborhood when young before age 13 increases college attendance and earnings and reduces single parenthood rates moving as an adolescent has slightly negative impacts perhaps because of disruption effects the decline in the gains from moving with the age when children move suggests that the duration of exposure to better environments during childhood is an important determinant of children s long term outcomes jel i31 i38 j13 r23 r38

how does your kindergarten classroom affect your earnings evidence from project star in project star 11 571 students in tennessee and their teachers were randomly assigned to classrooms within their schools from kindergarten to third grade this article evaluates the long term impacts of star by linking the experimental data to administrative records we first demonstrate that kindergarten test scores are highly correlated with outcomes such as earnings at age 27 college attendance home ownership and retirement savings we then document four sets of experimental impacts first students in small classes are significantly more likely to attend college and exhibit improvements on other outcomes class size does not have a significant effect on earnings at age 27 but this effect is imprecisely estimated second students who had a more experienced teacher in kindergarten have higher earnings third an analysis of variance reveals significant classroom effects on earnings students who were randomly assigned to higher quality classrooms in grades k 3 as measured by classmates end of class test scores have higher earnings college attendance rates and other outcomes finally the effects of class quality fade out on test scores in later grades but gains in noncognitive measures persist

if you pay peanuts do you get monkeys a cross country analysis of teacher pay and pupil performance why are teachers paid up to four times as much in some countries compared to others and does it matter specifically is the quality of teachers likely to be higher if they are paid higher up the income distribution in their own country and are pupil outcomes influenced by how well their teachers are paid this paper considers the determinants of teachers salaries across countries and examines the relationship between the real and relative level of teacher remuneration and the internationally comparable measured performance of secondary school pupils we use aggregate panel data on 39 countries published by the oecd to model this association our results suggest that recruiting higher ability individuals into teaching and permitting scope for quicker salary advancement will have a positive effect on pupil outcomes

natural capital assets systems and policies natural capital is a concept whose time has come but is in danger of being greenwashed to suit vested interests as has happened to sustainability it is a hard concept based upon assets rather than utility natural capital assets provide the foundations for positive freedom by providing for future generations capabilities and choices this is especially the case for renewable natural capital which can provide nature s bounty forever provided the assets are not driven below critical thresholds natural capital assets lend themselves to accounting to balance sheets and risk registers and require capital maintenance cost benefit analysis being partial and on a project by project basis has a limited role since the natural environment comes in systems and is less amenable to marginal analysis three principles are core to the design of natural capital policies these are public goods with public monies polluter pays and compensation in the form of net environmental gain

living with low for long i review the causes and some of the consequences of the recent decline in global real interest rates causes include a higher propensity to save associated with a rise in the population share of the high saving middle aged a weaker propensity to invest since the 2007 8 financial crisis and portfolio shifts towards safer assets consequences include an increased likelihood that policy rates are constrained by the zero lower bound necessitating greater reliance on unconventional monetary policies and an increased risk of financial instability as investors seek to generate higher yields

the higher educational transformation of china and its global implications higher educational transformation of china this paper discusses the major transformation of higher education that has been under way in china since 1999 and evaluates its potential global implications reflecting china s commitment to continued high growth this transformation focuses on major new resource commitments to tertiary education and significant changes in organisational form all of these changes have already had large impacts on china s higher educational system and are beginning to be felt by the global educational structure this focus on tertiary education differentiates the chinese case from other countries who earlier at similar stages of development instead stressed primary and secondary education

moral bias in large elections theory and experimental evidence in this article we provide evidence that voters in large elections tend to vote against their material self interest and to vote for a morally or ethically appealing alternative it may seem puzzling that voters might behave differently in small elections than they do in large ones however we show that such behavior is a logical consequence of voters having a conflict between obtaining a better material outcome and choosing a moral action we develop a simple model of this conflict and show that decreasing the probability that a single vote is decisive i e pivot probability reduces the importance of outcomes relative to actions in voter decision making because pivot probability is generally small in large elections alternatives that are understood by voters to be morally superior are more likely to win in large elections than in small ones thus compared to the preferences of voters election results will be biased in favor of moral alternatives 1 the model produces a set of predictions that we test in a laboratory experiment to clarify ideas consider a situation in which two outcomes are possible a and b assume that b gives

the higher educational transformation of china and its global implications this chapter documents the major transformation of higher education that has been underway in china since 1999 and evaluates its potential global impacts this has involved major new resource commitments to tertiary education and significant changes in organizational form reflecting china s commitment to continued high growth through quality upgrading and the production of ideas and intellectual property as set out in both the tenth 2001 2005 and eleventh 2006 2010 five year plans the number of undergraduate and graduate students in china has been growing at approximately 20 per year since 1999 and the total number of graduates at all levels of higher education in china has increased by more than a factor of six in the last decade entering class sizes and total student enrolments have risen fast too approximately quintupling prior to 1999 increases in these areas were much smaller much of the increased spending is focussed on elite universities and new academic contracts differ sharply from earlier ones which lacked tenure and often used annual publication quotas

generalizations about using value added measures of teacher quality the extensive investigation of the contribution of teachers to student achievement produces two generally accepted results first there is sub stantial variation in teacher quality as measured by the value added to achievement or future aca demic attainment or earnings second variables often used to determine entry into the profession and salaries including post graduate schooling experience and licensing examination scores appear to explain little of the variation in teacher quality so measured with the exception of early experience together these findings underscore explicitly that observed teacher characteristics do not represent teacher quality

priceless the nonpecuniary benefits of schooling copyright 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 by the american economic association permission to make digital or hard copies of part or all of american economic association publications for personal or classroom use is granted without fee provided that copies are not distributed for profit or direct commercial advantage and that copies show this notice on the first page or initial screen of a display along with the full citation including the name of the author copyrights for components of this work owned by others than aea must be honored abstracting with credit is permitted the author has the right to republish post on servers redistribute to lists and use any component of this work in other works for others to do so requires prior specific permission and or a fee permissions may be requested from the american economic association administrative office by going to the contact us form and choosing copyright permissions request from the menu copyright 2016 aea