the term structure of interest rates in the new and prospective eu countries this article uses cointegration and common trends techniques to investigate empirically the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates for the 10 new eu countries along with bulgaria and romania the empirical results support the expectations theory of the term structure for all countries except malta by decomposing each term structure into its transitory and permanent components we also analyse short run and long run interdependence among the term structures of interest rates in these countries our results indicate only weak linkages among the term structures of the 10 new eu countries and strong linkages between bulgaria and romania joined the eu in 2007

the performance of agricultural market advisory services in corn and soybeans the purpose of this article is to evaluate the performance of market advisory services for the 1995 2003 corn and soybean crops a new database from the agricultural market advisory services agmas project is used in the evaluation this database should not be subject to survivorship and hindsight biases overall the results provide little evidence that advisory services as a group outperform market benchmarks particularly after considering risk the evidence is more positive versus the farmer benchmarks even after taking risk into account results also suggest that it is difficult to predict the pricing performance of advisory services across crop years

monetary policy regimes expected inflation and the response of interest rates to money announcements this paper examines the response of the term structure of interest rates to weekly money announcements estimated responses for both the pre and post october 1979 periods are first presented then two competing hypotheses involving the policy anticipations and expected inflation effects are formally specified and compared with the estimated responses both hypotheses are found to be consistent with the responses but they have sharply different implications about the federal reserve s short run monetary policy by exploiting these different implications additional empirical results focusing directly on the money stock process support the policy anticipations hypothesis

the effects of incentive compensation contracts on the risk and return performance of commodity trading advisors this paper shows that commodity trading advisors ctas investment performance may be partially explained by their incentive compensation contracts contracts include base incentive and asset parameters the relationships between contract parameters and performance are theoretically indeterminate but are examined here empirically results indicate that incentive parameters are positively related to return means and standard deviations the dollar amounts of assets ctas manage are negatively related to return means and standard deviations supporting elton et al s 1987 1989 finding that cta performance falls after public offerings of commodity funds intuitively since dollar fees are a function of assets at the higher asset and fee levels achieved through commodity fund offerings ctas may safeguard assets and fees by pursuing less risky investment strategies

predictability in financial markets what do survey expectations tell us abstract there is widespread evidence of excess return predictability in financial markets for the foreign exchange market a number of studies have documented that the predictability of excess returns is closely related to the predictability of expectational errors of excess returns in this paper we investigate the link between the predictability of excess returns and expectational errors in a much broader set of financial markets using data on survey expectations of market participants in the stock market the foreign exchange market the bond market and money markets in various countries the results are striking first in markets where there is significant excess return predictability expectational errors of excess returns are predictable as well with the same sign and often even with similar magnitude this is the case for foreign exchange stock and bond markets second in the only market where excess returns are generally not predictable the money market expectational errors are not predictable either these findings suggest that an explanation for the predictability of excess returns must be closely linked to an explanation for the predictability of expectational errors

how is the debt managed learning from fiscal stabilizations this paper provides evidence on the behavior of public debt managers during fiscal stabilizations such episodes provide valuable information on the way debt instruments are chosen because they allow to overcome the problem that policymakers expectations of interest rates are generally not observable we find that governments increase the share of fixed rate long term debt denominated in the domestic currency the higher is the conditional volatility of short term interest rates the lower are long term interest rates and the stronger is the fall in long term rates that follows the announcement of the stabilization program by contrast conventional measures of the relative cost of issuing long term debt such as the long short interest rate spread are not significant this evidence suggests that debt managers tend to prefer long to short maturity debt because they are concerned about the risk of refinancing at higher than expected interest rates however when long term rates are high relative to their expectations they issue short maturity debt to minimize borrowing costs

macroeconomics and the term structure this paper provides an overview of the analysis of the term structure of interest rates with a special emphasis on recent developments at the intersection of macroeconomics and finance the topic is important to investors and also to policymakers who wish to extract macroeconomic expectations from longer term interest rates and take actions to influence those rates the simplest model of the term structure is the expectations hypothesis which posits that long term interest rates are expectations of future aver age short term rates in this paper we show that many features of the configuration of interest rates are puzzling from the perspective of the expectations hypothesis we review models that explain these anomalies using time varying risk premia although the quest for the fundamental macroeconomic explanations of these risk premia is ongoing inflation uncertainty seems to play a large role finally while modern finance theory prices bonds and other assets in a single unified framework we also consider an earlier approach based on segmented markets market segmentation seems important to understand the term structure of interest rates during the recent financial crisis jel e31 e43 e52 e58

how feasible is carbon sequestration in korea a study on the costs of sequestering carbon in forest in recent years carbon sequestration has become a more attractive policy in korea due to the increasing trend of marginal cropland and enhanced public awareness on adverse climate change phenomena this study aims to calculate the unit costs of carbon sequestration programs through afforestation in korea and examine the cost effectiveness of programs the basis of our simulation is an econometric land use share model and province level of aggregated panel data are used for model estimation four scenarios are considered depending on whether the program includes the harvest and which tree species are planted the approach of sequestration program is to pay the landowners to convert their lands to forest for a period of time in exchange of fixed annual payment in addition to tree establishment cost our results show that the unit cost varies from 122 to 486 per ton of carbon stored depending on the scenarios and payment levels we found that the carbon sequestration can be a cost effective mitigation policy in korea although it is not the least cost option

a simple account of the behavior of long term interest rates recent empirical research on the term structure of interest rates has shown that the long term interest rate is well described by a distributed lag on short term interest rates but does not conform to the expectations theory of the term structure it has been suggested that the long rate overreacts to the short rate this paper presents aunified taxonomy of risk premia or deviations from the expectations theory this enables the hypothesis of overreaction to be formally stated it is shown that if anything the long rate has underreacted to the short rate however the independent movement of the long rate is primarily responsible for the failure of the expectations theory

new public offerings information and investor rationality the case of publicly offered commodity funds publicly traded commodity funds have been poor investment vehicles yet new funds are a fast growing part of the investment scene in this article the authors show that the information provided to investors is significantly biased upward and that true performance cannot be determined by the information most investors see thus investment in commodity funds given the information set is rational while the authors limit the study to commodity funds the same should hold for other limited partnerships such as real estate oil and gas copyright 1989 by the university of chicago

preferred habitat for liquidity in international short term interest rates abstract risk shifting window dressing and a preferred habitat for liquidity have been offered as possible explanations as to why us money market rates are higher before the year end than afterwards the two hypotheses differ in the timing of the rate decline at the year end and the evidence on the timing of the decline supports the preferred habitat hypothesis in us money markets this paper extends this line of research to the behavior of international short term interest rates at year ends and quarter ends using london interbank offer rates libor for 11 different currencies the results suggest that the behavior of libor for five currencies the us dollar euro japanese yen swiss franc and german mark is consistent with year end or quarter end preferred habitats for liquidity other currencies do not demonstrate consistently distinct patterns in turn of the year and turn of the quarter yields none of the results provides any support for risk shifting window dressing

sources of regime switching in short term interest rates for canada the purpose of this study is to identify sources of regime switching in short term interest rates for canada the choice of information variables is based on three well known hypotheses about interest rates the expectations hypothesis the fisher relationship and the condition for uncovered interest parity the empirical framework consists of an autoregressive distributive lag adl model in error correction form with information spreads and a markov regime switching estimation methodology the models choose interest rate regimes that are similar in many respects to those found for the usa the different regimes in canada are driven by movements in the monetary policy rate the us short term rate and the long term yield the monetary policy rate is found to trigger very large changes in the short term rate responding one for one in the high variance regime and slightly less in the more normal interest rate regime both the us short rate and long term yield are also found to trigger relatively large

the term structure spread and future changes in long and short rates in the g7 countries abstract according to the expectations hypothesis when the spread between long and short rates widens next quarter s long rate should rise in the united states however long rates decline instead of rising this anomaly is also present in canada the uk germany and japan four of the additional six g7 countries nevertheless in contrast to the us where long rates appear to overreact to expected future developments the anomalous short run movement of long rates in these other g7 countries is caused by an additive white noise error on long rates that does not materially affect the information in their term structure

minimum cost strategies for sequestering carbon in forests this paper examines the costs of meeting explicit targets for increments of carbon sequestered in forests when both forest management decisions and the area of forests can be varied costs are estimated as welfare losses in markets for forest and agricultural products results show greatest change in management actions when targets require large near term flux increments while land area change is largest when long term increments are needed marginal costs per tonne of carbon flux do not vary greatly with the form of the target and are similar to findings of earlier studies for comparable size of average carbon flux increment

interest rate co movements global factors and the long end of the term spread the decoupling of us short and long interest rates has been a distinctive feature of the 2000s we employ recent advances in panel econometrics to document this disconnect for industrial countries and link it to a global latent factor in long term rates we investigate whether international forces such as global inflation global output or the global savings glut may be behind this global latent factor the savings glut is the most likely contender suggesting that reserve accumulation and a search for yield from emerging markets has lowered long rates internationally driving a wedge between domestic short and long rates

professionally managed publicly traded commodity funds investment in professionally managed publicly traded commodity funds has grown rapidly in recent years this is the first comprehensive study of the performance of these funds it is found that randomly selected funds offer neither an attractive alternative to bonds nor a profitable addition to a portfolio of stocks and bonds furthermore past performance of these funds offers very little information about future performance the findings may be explained by the large transactions costs incurred by these funds and their primary reliance on technical analysis copyright 1987 by the university of chicago

term structure of interest rates and the expectation hypothesis the euro area abstract this paper investigates the informational content of the yield curve in the european market using data on the italian term structures according to the expectation hypothesis theory eht the current forward rate equals the future short rate plus a constant risk premium that is time invariant but maturity dependent this theory has been widely tested in the empirical literature providing various findings according to the country where it has been applied and to the segment of the yield curve examined or the period under study the standard approach to test the eht uses the regression techniques assuming data on spot rates and their first differences to be stationary recently an increasing number of studies evidenced the non stationarity of interest rates time series and some tests of the eht are formulated using term spread and forward spot spread which are stationary a new strand of literature suggests to investigate the eht using a restricted var framework in this paper following jondeau e ricart r 1999 the expectations hypothesis of the term structure tests on us german french and uk euro rates journal of international money and finance 18 725 750 ghazali n a low s w 2002 the expectations hypothesis in emerging financial markets the case of malaysia applied economics 34 1147 1156 and seo b 2003 non linear mean reversion in the term structure of interest rates journal of economic dynamics and control 27 2243 2265 we test if the expectation hypothesis holds using cointegration and error correction analysis for the period under study results suggest that the long and short term interest rates are cointegrated and therefore subject to a long equilibrium path providing evidence that the eht holds for the italian and the european market

macroeconomic sources of risk in the term structure we develop a new way of modeling time variation in term premia based on the stochastic discount factor model of asset pricing the joint distribution of excess u s bond returns of different maturity and the observable fundamental macroeconomic factors is modeled using multivariate garch with conditional covariances in the mean to capture the term premia by testing the assumption of no arbitrage we derive a specification test of our model we estimate the contribution made to the term premia at different maturities through real and nominal sources of risk from the estimated term premia we recover the term structure of interest rates and examine how it varies through time finally we examine whether the reported failures of the rational expectations hypothesis can be attributed to an omitted time varying term premium

tests of the expectations hypothesis resolving the campbell shiller paradox one of the more puzzling results in the expectations hypothesis eh testing literature is the campbell shiller paradox csp in an influential paper campbell and shiller 1991 found that the slope of the term structure almost always gives a forecast in the wrong direction for the short term change in the yield on the longer bond but gives a forecast in the right direction for long term changes in short rates this paper provides an econometric resolution to the csp specifically it shows that by their construction these tests can generate results consistent with the csp if the eh does not holdnwhatever the reason monte carlo experiments confirm that this explanation can account for campbell and shiller s paradoxical results for most pairings of short term and long term rates considered

the effect of changes in the federal funds rate target on market interest rates in the 1970s abstract this paper examines the influence of monetary policy on interest rates by estimating the effect of changes in the federal funds rate target the federal reserve s policy instrument on market interest rates in the 1970s we find that changes in the target caused large movements in short term rates and smaller but significant movements in intermediate and long term rates we hypothesize that the similarity of the reactions of three six and twelve month rates to changes in the target offers a possible explanation for the lack of support for the expectations theory from studies that have tested the theory using these rates

reserves announcements and interest rates does monetary policy matter the author provides evidence on the perceived existence of strong liquidity effect the analysis is based on the response of the term structure of interest rates to the weekly federal reserve announcements of bank reserves during the post october 1979 period it is shown that unanticipated changes in the mix between borrowed and nonborrowed reserves cause expected real interest rates to change after the announcement because they provide information about a future change in the supply of money a precise model is developed and tested during subperiods of nonborrowed and borrowed reserves targeting by the fed

the costs of carbon sequestration a revealed preference approach increased concem by policy makers with the threat of global climate change has brought with it considerable attention to the possibility of encouraging the growth of forests as a means of sequestering carbon dioxide national academy of sciences nas 1992 james p bruce et al 1996 1 the kyoto protocol to the united nations framework convention on climate change 1997 which establishes emission reduction targets for the united states and other industrialized nations states that carbon sequestration can be used by participating nations to achieve their targets moreover even before the kyoto agreement this approach had become an explicit element of both u s and intemational climate policies u s department of energy 1991 united nations general assembly 1992 william j clinton and albert gore 1993 this high level of interest has been due in part to suggestions that sufficient lands are available to use the approach to mitigate a substantial share of annual carbon dioxide c02 emissions greg marland 1988 daniel a lashof and dennis a tirpak 1989 mark c trexler 1991 and claims that growing trees to sequester carbon is a relatively inexpensive means of combating climate change roger a sedjo and allen m solomon 1989 daniel j dudek and alice leblanc 1990 nas 1992 in other words the serious attention given by policy makers to carbon sequestration can partly be explained by implicit assertions about respective marginal cost functions i develop and demonstrate a method by which the costs of carbon sequestration can be estimated on the basis of evidence from landowners behavior when confronted with the opportunity costs of alternative land uses the simplest of previous economic analyses derived single point estimates of average costs associated with particular sequestration levels marland 1988 sedjo and solomon 1989 dudek and leblanc 1990 edwin s rubin et al 1992 omar masera et al 1995 often it has been assumed that land opportunity costs are zero g van kooten et al 1992 j k winjum et al 1992 new york state energy office 1993 robert k dixon et al 1994 another set of studies essentially engineering costing models has constructed marginal cost schedules by using information on revenues and costs of production for altemative uses on representative types or locations of land and then sorting these in ascending order of cost robert j moulton and kenneth r richards 1990 richards et al 1993 simulation models include a model of the lost profits due to removing land from agricultural production peter j parks and ian w hardie 1995 a mathematical programming model of the agricultural sector and the timber market richard m adams et al 1993 a related model incorporating the effects of agricultural price support programs j m callaway and bruce mccarl 1996 and a dynamic simulation model of forestry susan swinehart 1996 lastly an analysis by andrew j plantinga 1995 adopts land use elasticities from an econometric study to estimate sequestration costs we draw on some of the best features of the previous studies including the carbon levelization method of moulton and richards john f kennedy school of government harvard university 79 john f kennedy street cambridge ma 02138 and resources for the future richard newell supplied excellent research assistance and valuable comments on a previous version were provided by lawrence goulder william nordhaus andrew plantinga kenneth richards two anonymous referees participants in seminars at the universities of california at los angeles and santa barbara the university of maryland the university of michigan the university of texas harvard university stanford university yale university resources for the future and the national bureau of economic research the author alone is resdonsible for any errors 1 after fossil fuel combustion deforestation is the second largest source of carbon dioxide emissions estimates of annual global emissions from deforestation range from 0 6 to 2 8 billion tons compared with slightly less than 6 0 billion tons annually from fossil fuel combustion cement manufacturing and natural gas flaring combined r a houghton 1991 t m smith et al 1993

the reverse lbo decision and firm performance theory and evidence we investigate the transition from private to public ownership of companies that had previously been subject to leveraged buyouts lbos we show that the information asymmetry problem firms face when they go to public markets for equity as well as behavioral and debt overhang effects will produce a pattern in which superior performance before an offering should be expected with disappointing performance subsequently we find empirical evidence of this phenomenon by studying 62 reverse lbos that went public between 1983 and 1987 the market appears to anticipate this pattern in 1991 56 leveraged buyouts lbos returned to the public equity markets part of a broader phenomenon in which a large fraction of lbos go public again hence becoming reverse lbos kaplan 1991 reports that 45 percent of a sample of large lbos completed between 1979 and 1986 later returned to public ownership moreover reverse lbos tend to be larger than the average initial public offering ipo 1 in sum transitions from the lbo form to public ownership have become a widespread and economically significant phenomenon we find strong evidence that the return to public ownership of reverse lbos coincides with a peak in their operating performance their operating income as a percentage of total assets grew by about seven percentage points in the preoffering year comparison firms in the same industries show a slight decline in the same performance measure moreover in the preoffering year reverse lbos outperform continuing lbos in the year after the

the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates open interest rate parity and central bank policy reaction abstract a rational expectations model with endogenous monetary policy reacting to the exchange rate and the term spread shows that the empirical performance of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure and the uncovered interest rate parity hypothesis improves with the strength of the policy reaction to the exchange rate and the term spread respectively

a multi country study of the information in the shorter maturity term structure about future inflation abstract empirical analysis of data from ten oecd countries indicates that except for france the united kingdom and germany the shorter maturity term structure does not contain a great deal of information about the future path of inflation on the other hand except for the united kingdom there is a great deal of information in the term structure of nominal interest rates at shorter maturities about the term structure of real interest rates these results are explained by differences in the relative variability of expected future inflation changes and real term structure slopes for the different countries

exchange rates and long term bonds tentative evidence suggests that the empirical failure of uncovered interest parity uip is con fi ned to short term interest rates tests of uip for long term interest rates are however h

diversification benefits and persistence of us based global bond funds abstract this paper examines diversification benefits and performance persistence of 188 us based global bond funds that survived and were defunct during the period of 1993 2004 consistent with managed fund literature global funds underperform broad based benchmark indexes however the underperformance is less than the funds expense ratio the results using both simple and time varying frameworks suggest that global funds provide higher total return and comparable risk adjusted return to domestic bond funds for us investors specializing in domestic bond funds global funds can enhance return by 0 5 1 per year without increasing risk global funds also provide incremental diversification benefits to equity fund investors the funds exhibit short run performance persistence but this is difficult for investors to exploit especially in long run global funds show no return seasonality during the sample period on a risk adjusted basis larger and newer funds and funds with long maturity and low expense ratio perform well

luck versus forecast ability determinants of trader performance in futures markets statistical techniques are used to demonstrate that the fortunes of individual futures traders are determined by luck not forecast ability even though a large number of traders appear to exhibit significantly superior forecast ability the investigation strongly supports three conclusions there are fewer participants with significantly superior skill than expected if participants trade randomly there are more traders exhibiting no skill than expected if participants trade randomly and forecast ability is not correlated over time superior forecasters in the early period are only average forecasters in the later period therefore it is luck that determines trader performance copyright 1991 by university of chicago press

the revival of the expectations hypothesis of the us term structure of interest rates abstract us interest rate data from 1987 to 1995 show a substantial predictive power of the spread for the short rate in line with the expectations hypothesis the estimation of a mccallum policy reaction model supports our conjecture that this striking result can be attributed to the adoption of the spread as an indicator for us monetary policy since the late eighties 1997 elsevier science s a

computation of the beveridge nelson decomposition in the case of cointegrated systems with i 0 variables abstract this paper shows how the result of arino and newbold economics letters 61 1998 37 for the multivariate bn decomposition in the cointegrated case can be extended when i 0 variables are considered in the vec model an application of the extended procedure to the spanish peseta french franc real exchange rate is also provided

the expectations hypothesis of the term structure the uk interbank market using a high quality weekly data set the author provides several tests of the expectations hypothesis using the vector autoregression and cointegration methodologies for several maturities between one week and twelve months for the u k interbank market on the basis of the johansen cointegration analysis there appears to be a break in the term structure when both the six month and twelve month maturities are included as a pair the latter may be due to either the presence of liquidity constraints or market segmentation or a time varying term premium all of which would invalidate the assumptions underlying the expectations hypothesis the author provides some tentative explanations of these diverse results copyright 1996 by royal economic society

the information content of the term structure of interest rates this paper presents the results of an alternative test of the rational expectations theory of the term structure of interest rates other researchers have also examined the validity of the expectations hypothesis of term structure while there is more often rejection of the expectations hypothesis no other theory data consistent with the entire yield curve provides an empirically adequate explanation of this phenomenon the study considers postwar us pure discount zero coupons bond yields with various maturities from one month to 60 months based on the ex post formation of rational expectations the expectations error is quantified and the level of truth of the expectations hypothesis tested that is the strength of the departure of the yield curve from the expectations theory the results suggest that a significant amount of information available at no cost to market agents is not incorporated in forming people s expectations

market perceptions of federal reserve policy and the weekly monetary announcements abstract in october 1979 the federal reserve altered its operating procedures emphasizing control of the growth rate of the money stock was the fed able to gain credibility in the market the paper investigates this question by examining the reactions of spot and expected future exchange rates foreign interest rates and long run domestic forward interest rates to the weekly federal reserve announcements of m l both before and after october 1979 the empirical evidence points out that the fed did gain credibility but was unable to establish full credibility the market reactions are consistent with the hypothesis that market participants attached a positive probability to the event that the fed may at some point in the future abandon its money stock targets

testing the expectations hypothesis in eurodeposits abstract analyzing data on euro rates for 1978 1998 we find some consistent evidence in favor of the expectations hypothesis eh of the term structure a interest rates offered on deposits in a given currency form a cointegrated system b the restrictions of the eh on the cointegrating relationships are not rejected c forward rates contain significant explanatory power on future interest rates unbiasedness being an acceptable hypothesis as a cointegrating relationship between forward rates and the appropriate future value of the corresponding short term interest rate however we also provide evidence that past rates contain information additional to that in forward rates to predict future short term rates against the rational expectations version of the eh and market efficiency

new hope for the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates survey data on interest rate expectations permit separate testing of the two alternative hypotheses in traditional term structure tests that the expectations hypothesis fails and that expected future interest rates are ex post inefficient forecasts we find that the source of the spread s poor predictions of future interest rates varies with maturity at short maturities the expectations hypothesis fails at long maturities however changes in the yield curve reflect changes in expected future rates one for one an implication of the expectations hypothesis this result confirms earlier findings that long rates underreact to short rates but now it cannot be attributed to term premia if the attractiveness of an economic hypothesis is measured by the number of papers which statistically reject it the expectations theory of the term structure is a knockout most tests beginning with macaulay 1938 find no evidence supporting the expectations hypothesis 1 many cannot even reject statistically the alternative hypothesis that the spread between long and short rates contains no information about future interest rate changes 2 to make matters worse in u s postwar data future long rates tend to rise when short rates are above long rates since the expectations hypothesis would predict that long rates tend to fall the theory often does worse than even the naive model that future interest

a defense of traditional hypotheses about the term structure of interest rates expectations theories of asset returns may be interpreted either as stating that risk premia are zero or that they are constant through time under the former interpretation different versions of the expectations theory of the term structure are inconsistent with one another but i show that this does not necessarily carry over to the constant risk premium interpretation of the theory i present a general equilibrium example in which different types of risk premium are constant through time and dependent only on maturity furthermore i argue that differences among expectations theories are secondorder effects of bond yield variability i develop an approximate linearized framework for analysis of the term structure in which these differences disappear and i test its accuracy in practice using data from the crsp government bond tapes in a well known article in this journal cox ingersoll and ross cir 4 reexamine and find wanting certain hypotheses about the term structure of interest rates a striking feature of cir s re examination is that it is entirely theoretical cir show that different versions of the pure expectations theory of the term structure which traditionally were regarded as equivalent are in fact inconsistent with one another when interest rates are random furthermore in a fairly general continuous time arbitrage pricing framework when interest rates are random all versions of the theory except one are incompatible with equilibrium at first sight cir s results appear to be devastating to traditional empirical work on the term structure they suggest that researchers must specify arbitrage pricing models with a small number of state variables before proceeding to empirical work such models must restrict not only the deterministic components

a multicountry comparison of term structure forecasts at long horizons abstract this paper extends previous work on the information in the u s term structure at longer maturities to britain west germany and switzerland we find strong evidence that the term structure does have significant ability to forecast changes in inflation particularly at long maturities on the other hand the ability of the term structure to forecast changes in one year interest rates is somewhat weaker only at the very longest horizon five years is there significant forecasting ability for interest rate changes

an empirical note on the term structure and interest rate stabilization policies the expectations theory of the term structure of interest rates supplemented by the rational expectations and time invariant risk premium assumption implies that the spread between the long and the short rate has in general predictive power for the short rate this implication was consistently rejected in recent studies shiller campbell and schoenholtz 1983 fama 1984 mankiw and summers 1984 with data at the short end of the maturity spectrum threeand six month treasury bills time variations of the risk premium which are probably important for the behavior of the yield on long term bonds are not an entirely satisfactory explanation for these findings in a more recent article of mankiw and miron 1986 who analyzed quarterly data for threeand six month interest rates over the period 1890 1979 an interesting new explanation for the failure of the expectations theory emerged they showed that the spread had substantial predictive power for changes in the short rate in the period before the founding of the federal reserve 1890 1914 whereas for all other periods considered 1915 1933 1934 1951 1951 1958 and 1959 1979 the spread did not help to predict the short rate thus mankiw and miron suggested that the rejection of the expectations theory with recent data is a consequence of the commitment of the federal reserve to stabilize interest rates resulting in random walk behavior of the short rate under these circumstances expected future short rates are equal to the actual short rate and variations of the spread are only brought about by changes in the risk premium in this note the short term interest rate stabilization explanation for the failure of the predictive implications of the expectations theory of the term structure is subjected to an additional empirical test using recent monthly data thereby the short end of the term structure of swiss german and u s interest rates is analyzed for the years 1974 1986 these three cases are of great interest in our context the swiss national bank and the german federal bank used the opportunity offered by the flexible exchange rate system to implement money supply targets and did not attempt to stabilize short term interest rates whereas the federal reserve was at

a test of futures market disequilibrium using twelve different technical trading systems trading of twelve technical system is simulated for a portfolio of twelve commodities from 1978 to 1984 in order to test for market disequilibrium results differ substantially by trading system seven systems produced significant gross returns four of the twelve trading sytems produced significant net returns and significant risk adjusted returns these results show that disequilibrium models are a better description of short run futures price movements than the random walk model they also suggest that there may be additional causes of disequilibrium beyond transaction costs and risk aversion

the expectations hypothesis of the term structure tests on us german french and uk euro rates abstract this paper tests the expectations hypothesis of the term structure on us german french and uk euro rates three tests are examined the first is based on forward rates and the other two are based on the interest rates spread first we show that the sign puzzle highlighted by campbell and shiller campbell j y shiller r j 1991 yield spreads and interest rate movements a bird s eye view review of economic studies 58 495 514 for us data does not arise in the cases of french and uk short term rates second we propose tests for the expectations hypothesis based on error correction models with these tests the sign puzzle disappears but the country puzzle remains

a reconsideration of the uncovered interest parity relationship abstract this paper argues that the uncovered interest parity uip relationship is distinct from and more important than the unbiasedness of forward exchange rates as predictors of future spot rates the standard finding that the slope estimate b is roughly 3 in regressions of s t on t 1 s t 1 implies rejection of unbiasedness but not necessarily uip the hypothesis that monetary authorities manage interest rates so as to smooth their movements while also resisting changes in exchange rates is attractive conceptually and is capable of explaining not only the b 3 finding but also several other notable features of the data

uncovered interest parity and policy behavior new evidence abstract mccallum j monet econ 33 1994 105 132 introduces policy behavior to resolve previous empirical rejections of the uncovered interest parity uip theory in this note we reexamine his policy behavior argument first we extend the data set used by mccallum to include the recent 8 years and contrary to the analysis provided by mccallum we make a thorough econometric analysis of his uip specification it is shown that in most cases his theory is supported by the data as well as it passes conventional econometric tests we then take a closer look at his policy behavioral relationship but unfortunately it turns out that this specification is inconsistent with the uip specification suggested by mccallum

new techniques to extract market expectations from financial instruments this paper is a selective survey of new or recent methods to extract information about market expectations from asset prices for monetary policy purposes traditionally interest rates and forward exchange rates have been used to extract expected means of future interest rates exchange rates and inflation more recently these methods have been refined to rely on implied forward interest rates so as to extract expected future time paths very recently methods have been designed to extract not only the means but the whole risk neutral probability distribution from a set of option prices

what does the term structure tell us about future inflation abstract this empirical analysis indicates that for maturities of six months or less the term structure of nominal interest rates provides almost no information about the future path of inflation but does provide information about the term structure of real interest rates however as maturities lengthen to nine and twelve months the nominal term structure begins to contain information about future inflation but ceases to provide information about the real term structure these results are explained by differences in the relative variability of expected future inflation changes and real term structure slopes at different points in the term structure

an international examination of affine term structure models and the expectations hypothesis we examine the yield curve behavior and the relative performance of affine term structure models atsms using government bond yield data from canada germany japan the u k and the u s we find strong predictability of forward rates for excess bond returns and reject the expectations hypothesis in all five countries a three factor model is sufficient to capture movements in the yield curve of canada japan the u k and the u s but may not be enough for germany an exhaustive comparison among atsms with no more than three factors reveals that the three factor essential affine model a 1 3 e with only one factor affecting the volatility of the short rate but with all three factors affecting the price of risk performs best in all five countries simulations provide inconclusive evidence on whether this best affine model can successfully generate the rich yield curve behavior observed in the data

the term structure of euro rates some evidence in support of the expectations hypothesis abstract this paper studies 1 3 6 and 12 month euro rates for 17 countries using between 10 and 30 years of data term spreads contain information about future short term rates in all 51 regressions that we estimate moreover in 35 cases we are unable to reject the expectations hypothesis using cross sectional regressions we estimate the variance of the term premium and the correlation of the term premium and the expected change in short rates we conclude that despite evidence of a time varying term premium for many countries the expectations hypothesis is broadly compatible with the data

nominal term structure and term premia evidence from chile abstractthe downwards trend exhibited in chile s nominal term structure since 2003 has been a common pattern shared by other developed and developing economies to understand the behaviour of the nominal yield curve in chile we rely on an affine dynamic term structure model which allows the term structure to decompose into the expected short term interest rate related to the monetary policy expectation and the term premium we show that most of the fall of long term interest rates as well as its dynamics are related to the term premium rather than the expected short term interest rate moreover we find evidence that term premium is driven primarily by the us term premium and domestic nominal uncertainty derived from expected inflation

returns to individual traders in agricultural futures markets skill or luck using individual trader data from the commodity futures trading commission s cftc large trader reporting system ltrs for the period january 2000 to september 2009 this article investigates whether noncommercial traders in the corn live cattle and coffee futures markets persist in making profits two out of sample measures of skill a winner and a loser ranking test and a top and a bottom decile test are used to analyse the ability of traders to consistently perform well at monthly quarterly and annual time horizons the findings identify significant persistence in rankings traders in the top half of the profit distribution in a time period tend to stay in the top half in the next period differences in magnitude of profitability between the top and bottom deciles also provide support that persistent skill exists among the top 10 of traders detailed examination of annual rankings for those traders who were most continuously in the markets further reveals persistence in profits for a smaller s

term structure anomalies term premium or peso problem abstract the goal of this paper is to develop a test for the relative importance of the time varying term premium and the peso problem for rejection of the expectation hypothesis of the term structure ehts our reasoning is based on a term structure model that allows for both phenomena simultaneously if we assume that only one regime is observed ex post we can estimate all the information we need to evaluate distortions generated by both hypotheses we can also test the presence of a peso problem firstly we find that a peso problem might explain rejection of the ehts in germany and the united kingdom after the european exchange rate crisis secondly we show that this explanation appears inappropriate to explain the ehts failure in the united states

unintended impacts of public investments on private decisions the depletion of forested wetlands by affecting relative economic returns infrastructure investments can induce major changes in private land use the authors find that 30 percent of forested wetland depletion in the mississippi valley has resulted from private decisions induced by federal flood control projects despite explicit federal policy to preserve wetlands the model aggregates individual land use decisions using a parametric distribution of unobserved land quality dynamic simulations are used to quantify the impacts on wetlands of federal projects and other factors copyright 1990 by american economic association

the term structure of commercial paper rates this paper tests the expectations hypothesis in the market for commercial paper our main dataset which is new to the literature consists of daily indexes constructed from the actual market yields for nearly all commercial paper issued by u s corporations between january 1998 and august 2003 we show that the term premia built into commercial paper yields rise dramatically at year end causing the expectations hypothesis to be rejected however once we control for these predictable year end eects we nd the reverse that commercial paper yields largely conform with the expectations hypothesis