cost uncertainty and the rate of investment abstract this paper examines the effect of cost and price uncertainty on the optimal rate of investment by firms within a general equilibrium framework former works which have studied this issue like hartman 1972 and abel 1983 1984 1985 have come to the conclusion that this effect is positive since increased price uncertainty raises expected profitability but these studies assume a fixed discount rate which is equivalent to assuming that consumers are risk neutral this paper shows that if consumers are risk averse the effect of uncertainty may be reversed and investment may be depressed when price or cost uncertainty is increased

the hazard of moral hazard untangling the asian crisis abstract the paper critically examines the explanations of the asian crisis which emphasize the role of national policies and institutions that allegedly created moral hazard by overprotecting the investors industrial policy crony capitalism and government guarantees accorded to banks and industrial firms that are considered too important to fail we also discuss the international dimension of the moral hazard argument in the presence of international monetary fund imf bail out the paper finds these explanations theoretically ill defined and empirically weak and argues that the prescriptions for changes in policy and institutions based on them are unlikely to prevent similar kinds of crises in the future

does money talk the effect of a monetary attribute on the marginal values in a choice experiment when designing choice experiments for nonmarket valuation the role of the price attribute is of major importance in the energy sector the uncertainty of future direction of changes in prices makes it difficult to include an adequate price vector in the design we separately investigate the implication of using price vectors with increases and decreases in tariffs from current levels on marginal value estimate from choice experiment data developed using prospect theory in addition we also analyse the effect of excluding the price vector on these marginal values by and large our results support the neoclassical theory as we find that the means of the conditional estimates of the marginal values of attributes are unaffected by the direction of the price change and from exclusion of the price attribute however the distributions show a larger spread of values when the choice experiment implies a tariff decrease which may have policy implications

is our everyday comfort for sale preferences for demand management on the electricity market in a european perspective the electricity markets have been experiencing major changes via deregulation new technologies and changes in the production mix together with the daily and seasonal peak hours on the demand side the changing markets put pressure on increased flexibility to handle and sustain balance in the grid systems this paper focuses on the demand side and analyzes preferences related to demand management of swedish households energy use in a web based choice experiment respondents were faced with three hypothetical electricity contracts the choices of preferred contracts revealed preferences for attributes related to external control of heating household electricity and information dissemination integrity the results show that people put a substantial value on not being controlled illustrated by compensations up to thousands of sek for accepting a contract characterized by external control of energy use in various dimensions in addition the results show that household composition age gender and income play a role for the perceived discomfort from the external control and information dissemination

a note on competitive investment under uncertainty uncertainty over future output prices or input costs can affect investment by a riskneutral firm in two opposing ways first it can increase the value of the marginal unit of capital which leads to more investment this only requires that the stream of future profits generated by the marginal unit be a convex function of the stochastic variable by jensen s inequality the expected present value of that stream is increased this result was demonstrated by richard hartman 1972 and later extended by andrew abel 1983 and others in their models constant returns to scale and the substitutability of capital with other factors ensure that the marginal profitability of capital is convex in output price and input costs even with fixed proportions however this convexity can result from the ability of the firm to vary output so that the marginal unit of capital need not be utilized at times when the output price is low or input costs are high if investment is irreversible and can be postponed a second effect of uncertainty is to create an opportunity cost of investing now rather than waiting for new information to arrive before committing resources this increases the full cost of investing in a marginal unit of capital which reduces investment 2 hence the net effect of uncertainty on irreversible investment depends on the size of this opportunity cost relative to the increase in the value of the marginal unit of capital the sign of the net effect is significant because of its possible policy implications pindyck 1988 and giuseppe bertola 1989 developed models in which a firm faces a downward sloping demand curve and found the net effect to be negative ricardo caballero 1991 has recently studied investment by an individual firm facing a stochastically shifting demand curve he shows that as returns to scale become constant and the elasticity of demand faced by the firm rises this opportunity cost of investing now rather than waiting approaches zero thus in the limit of constant returns and an infinitely elastic demand curve an increase in uncertainty tends to raise rather than decrease current investment even if that investment is irreversible it is important to stress that caballero s limiting result treats the firm in isolation and describes the effect of a meanpreserving increase in price uncertainty and not an increase in industry wide demand uncertainty this note shows that in a competitive market the key interactions between irreversibility and uncertainty occur at the industry level and can only be understood by making price and industry output endogenous 3 doing so restores the positive opportunity cost associated with irreversible investment in addition caballero s result is based on a model with convex adjustment costs an innovative aspect of the model is that these costs can be asymmetric thereby allowing for partial or complete irreversibility complete irreversibility corresponds to a cost of massachusetts institute of technology cambridge ma 02139 this work was supported by the national science foundation under grant no ses 8618502 and by mit s center for energy policy research my thanks to julio rotemberg and especially ricardo caballero for very helpful comments and discussions 1then the marginal profit of capital at each time t in the future is max o pt ct where ct is variable cost thus a unit of capital represents a set of all options on future production which are worth more the greater the variance of pt or ct 2for a detailed discussion of this point and a survey of the recent literature on irreversibility and its implications for investment and market evolution see pindyck 1991 3studies that make price endogenous include steven lippman and richard rumelt 1985 avinash dixit 1989 1991 and john leahy 1990

how much is too much an investigation of the effect of the number of choice sets context dependence and the choice of bid vectors in choice experiments in a split sample design we examine how the number of choice sets design of the first choice set context dependence and the choice of attribute levels in the cost attribute affect the precision in the elicited preferences in otherwise completely identical choice experiment surveys these issues are investigated for swedish households marginal willingness to pay to reduce power outages our results indicate that neither the number of choice sets nor the design of the first choice set has a significant impact on estimated marginal willingness to pay while the effect was significant for the additive scaling of the cost vector at the end of the article we discuss the implications of our results on future developments and applications of choice experiments

reassessing the effectiveness of industrial policy in indonesia can the neoliberals be wrong abstract the neoliberal interpretation of the indonesian state suggests that industrial policy was incoherent subject to rent seeking and irrelevant to indonesia s post 1966 development success a more nuanced micro historical analysis of the state s interventions demonstrates that this oversimplification misses political elite objectives to overcome the ekonomi kolonial by using the power of the state and selective intervention to create a strong integrated diversified and outward oriented industrial economy ekonomi nasional empirical analysis presented here suggests that indonesia has largely achieved this objective it also suggests that industrial policy has been more important than the neoliberal argument permits

moving up the processing ladder in primary product exports sri lanka s value added tea industry governments in many developing countries influenced by the experience of the east asian newly industrialized countries have adopted policies to enhance domestic processing of primary commodities as a tool for accelerating employment growth export revenues and development sri lanka has traditionally exported tea in the form of bulk commodity teas but value added teas such as packaged teas tea bags etc have expanded in recent years this article examines factors affecting the processing of value added tea products in sri lanka by modeling export supply behavior estimates of the long run relationship and short run dynamics of export supply are presented and discussed the price of value added tea relative to bulk tea and industry capacity are identified as the main determinants of export supply while exchange rate changes have no discernible effect the policy implications of the analysis for enhancing further expansion of such value added teas are presented these are of interest for both policy makers and development analysts in particular the reasons that undermine the effectiveness of exchange rate policy as an instrument to stimulate value addition of primary products have much relevance for similar developing countries

modelling heterogeneity in response behaviour towards a sequence of discrete choice questions a probabilistic decision process model there is a growing body of evidence in the non market valuation literature suggesting that responses to a sequence of discrete choice questions tend to violate the assumptions typically made by analysts regarding independence of responses and stability of preferences decision processes or heuristics such as value learning and strategic misrepresentation have been offered as explanations for these results while a few studies have tested these heuristics as competing hypotheses none has investigated the possibility that each explains the response behaviour of a subgroup of the population in this paper we make a contribution towards addressing this research gap by presenting a probabilistic decision process model designed to estimate the proportion of respondents employing defined heuristics we demonstrate the model on binary and multinomial choice data sources and find three distinct types of response behaviour the results suggest that accounting for heterogeneity in response behaviour may be a better way forward than attempting to identify a single heuristic to explain the behaviour of all respondents

estimation using contingent valuation data from a dichotomous choice with follow up questionnaire reply abstract our original article proposed that the two yes no willingness to pay wtp responses produced by this survey format should be viewed as a pair of jointly distributed correlated discrete random variables the comparison model the conventional approach to estimation using these types of data contained a programming error correction alters the results from the comparison model but our original claim that estimation by conventional methods can produce misleading inferences if ours is the appropriate specification still stands this is especially true if negative wtp is precluded when e wtp is calculated

technological capabilities and industrialization abstract this paper reviews the implications for industrial strategy of recent research on technological capabilities at the firm and national levels after exploring the nature and determinants of microlevel technological development a simple framework for explaining the growth of national capabilities is set out based on the interplay of incentives capabilities and institutions each may suffer market failure and so require corrective intervention the experience of some industrializing countries is described to assess the validity of this framework it is concluded that interventions carefully and selectively applied are necessary for industrial success

a new index of housing sentiment we propose a new measure for housing sentiment and show that it accurately tracks expectations of future house price growth rates we construct the housing sentiment index using partial least squar

preference anomalies preference elicitation and the discovered preference hypothesis there is wide ranging evidence much of it deriving from economics experiments of anomalies in behaviour that challenge standard preference theories this paper explores the implications of these anomalies for preference elicitation methods because methods that are used to inform public policy such as contingent valuation are based on standard preference theories their validity may be called into question by the anomaly data however on a new interpretation these anomalies do not contradict standard theory but are errors in stated preference that can be expected to disappear as people become more experienced in relevant decision environments we explore the evidence for this interpretation and what implications follow for preference elicitation methodology

housing really is the business cycle what survives the lessons of 2008 09 the downturn of 2008 09 has confirmed that i housing is the single most critical part of the u s business cycle ii the proper conduct of monetary policy needs to be cognizant that choices made at one point in time affect the options later and iii the best time to intervene in the housing cycle is when the volume of building is above normal and growing more so what was different this time was the rapid and substantial decline in home prices

competitiveness indices and developing countries an economic evaluation of the global competitiveness report developing countries policy makers worry about national competitiveness and closely watch indices ranking international competitive performance this paper analyzes from a development economics perspective if competitiveness is a legitimate concern and if the leading indices deserve the attention they get it assesses the best known index the global competitiveness report of the world economic forum and finds deficiencies at several levels its definitions are too broad the approach biased and the methodology flawed many qualitative measures are vague redundant or wrong these weak theoretical and empirical foundations reduce the value of the indices for analytical or policy purposes

distributional implications of macroeconomic policy theory and applications to el salvador abstract this article offers a theoretical framework for designing macroeconomic strategy for el salvador that will both respect stabilization and structural adjustment needs and enhance social equity after outlining the largely negative distributional implications of the orthodox policies followed by el salvador in recent years we argue that stabilization and efficiency could actually be improved by increased equity and sketch out the elements of an alternative approach that would be distributionally sensitive and thereby help consolidate the peace

the impact of regulations on the supply and quality of care in child care markets we examine the impact of state child care regulations on the supply and quality of care in child care markets we exploit panel data on both individual establishments and local markets to control for state time and where possible establishment specific fixed effects to mitigate the potential bias due to policy endogeneity we find that the imposition of regulations reduces the number of center based child care establishments especially in lower income markets however such regulations increase the quality of services provided especially in higher income areas thus there are winners and losers from the regulation of child care services

market stimulating technology policies in developing countries a framework with examples from east asia abstract this paper proposes an analytical framework for technology development based upon evolutionary approaches and drawing upon asian development strategies the analysis rests on the concept of market stimulating technology policies comprising a broad array of policies to promote industrial and technological development some market and others government determined these policies may be functional horizontal or vertical and can be analyzed at three levels national strategic and specific the paper suggests that strategic choices are involved at all stages that cannot be resolved entirely by recourse to free markets

industry wide versus firm specific uncertainty and investment british company panel data evidence this paper presents evidence on the prediction that the impacts of firm specific and industry wide uncertainty on investment will be different results show that these work in opposing directions and that the effect of industry specific uncertainty is stronger in concentrated industries

wind farms where and how to place them a choice experiment approach to measure consumer preferences for characteristics of wind farm establishments in sweden this paper explores preferences among the general public in sweden for attributes related to the establishment of wind power farms the method applied is a choice experiment where people are asked to choose between two hypothetical wind farms characterized by different attributes five attributes are included in the experiment i type of landscape ii type of ownership iii the degree of local participation in the planning process iv the choice to transfer revenue to the society in a pre specified way and v a monetary cost in terms of an additional electricity certificate fee the data are analyzed with multinomial logit random parameter logit and latent class models the results indicate that consumers in sweden are more likely to accept the higher renewable electricity certificate fee if a wind power farms in areas used for recreational purposes are substantially avoided b the establishment is anchored by whole or partial ownership in the local community and c the locals are involved in the planning and implementation process our policy simulation exercise shows that respondents are willing to pay a higher electricity fee corresponding to about 0 6 euro cents per kwh to avoid wind farms located in the mountainous area and private ownership

do environmental benefits matter evidence from a choice experiment among house owners in germany residential buildings strongly contribute to global co2 emissions due to the high energy demand for electricity and heating particularly in industrialised countries within the eu decentralised heat generation is of particular relevance for future climate policy as its emissions are not covered by the eu ets we conducted a choice experiment concerning energy retrofits for existing houses in germany in the experiment the approximately 400 sampled house owners could either choose a modern heating system or an improved thermal insulation for their home we used standard and mixed logit specifications to analyse the choice data we found environmental benefits to have a significant impact on choices of heating systems however they played no role in terms of insulation choices based on the estimated mixed logit model we further obtained willingness to pay wtp measures for co2 savings

gender specific starting point bias in choice experiments evidence from an empirical study abstract in this paper we test whether preferences and willingness to pay estimates obtained in a choice experiment study are susceptible to starting point bias as is often the case in dichotomous choice contingent valuation studies on the basis of a multinomial probit model we find that preferences are indeed susceptible to starting point bias in a split sample design our results suggest that varying the price levels displayed in a so called instructional choice set presented prior to the actual preference eliciting choice sets significantly impacts respondents preferences and willingness to pay for protecting danish nature areas from new motorway development in particular our results show that the bias is gender specific only female respondents are significantly affected results further reveal that the impact of the starting point bias decays as respondents evaluate more and more choice sets this supports the discovered preference hypothesis and on the basis of this we suggest a number of ways to potentially mitigate the starting point bias

the impact of structural adjustment programs on manufacturing lessons from nicaragua abstract since 1988 nicaragua has applied structural adjustment programs including stabilization and liberalization measures as of 1991 these measures succeeded in combating inflation but they did not lead to increased production nor to an improved trade balance the nicaraguan manufacturing sector was especially vulnerable because of a decade long lack of investment and the non market environment in which firms operated in the 1980s the combination of trade liberalization with an overvalued exchange rate and financial liberalization had in particular negative effects on manufacturing production and investment in addition specific industrial policies are necessary to increase manufacturing competitiveness

risky business the allocation of capital abstract in models of the firm a mean preserving spread in the price of output increases the expected value of profits and frequently the firm s demand for capital these results seem to contradict the conventional wisdom from financial asset pricing models where an increase in an asset s risk decreases the demand for that asset this paper shows that in general equilibrium an increase in exogenous risk usually increases expected output in that technology the result from the theory of the firm but it may also increase the risk of that technology the results from finance an increase in exogenous risk always reallocates capital toward less risky businesses

the east asian miracle study does the bell toll for industrial strategy the world bank s east asian miracle study1 has been anticipated with considerable interest by the development community it was intended not least by the japanese government that financed it to be an objective re examination of the role of government interventions in economic particularly industrial development it reflected a widespread unease that the bank was too strongly committed to a neoliberal view of the development process 2 this approach evolved over the 1980s drawing mainly upon evidence from east asia and fuelled by a shift in mainstream economics and political perceptions in the leading developed countries it formed the basis of the bank s subsequent lending and policy advice and was at the core of the structural adjustment programs that have shaped policy in many developing countries this review confines itself to the study s analysis of industrial policy concentrating on the approach and the analysis of the established nies the four tigers

choice experiments are not conducted in a vacuum the effects of external price information on choice behavior abstract consumers carry a wealth of external knowledge and experience into a study that may affect choices in even the most well crafted experiment we derive a conceptual model showing how the level and variability of price perceptions outside the task at hand might affect choice behavior and we conduct an experiment to test the model by manipulating information provided to respondents in a way to alter the outside the experiment perceptions mixed logit error component models show that reference dependent models best describe the choice data and we find that consumer choice is significantly affected by the experiment manipulations the predictions of the model are borne out in the data as expected price sensitivity is generally higher for price changes above a price reference point than below also as predicted exogenously increasing external reference prices and exogenously reducing the variability in references prices both serve to increase the probability of making a purchase and reduce the probability of choosing none these results have important implications for the design and practice of choice experiments as they show that consumer choice is affected by perceptions of the level and variability of prices outside the experiment more generally the results highlight the need to understand the formation and distribution of reference prices when predicting consumer choice

an overview of innovation intensity in the indigenous oilfield services firms in nigeria the study examined the types and intensity of innovations in the indigenous nigeria s oil and gas servicing sub sector the study used primary and secondary data sources 100 firms were purposefully selected and sampled focusing on the period between 2001 and 2010 a total of 400 questionnaires were ad min istered of wh ich 70 were returned and found suitable for analysis the responses were aggregated such that the unit of analysis was the firm secondary data were sourced fro m the internet and other published sources the data so obtained were analy zed using descriptive and inferential statistics of the 4 types of innovation that the study examined o rganizat ional innovation was the most prevalent 46 while diffusion based innovation was least 10 product and process innovations were implemented respectively by 17 and 22 of the firms innovation intensity was lo w only two patents were granted to the firms within the period 2007 2010 level of organizat ional learning was lo w the nu mber of r d staff was low while the impact of innovation on firms performance was expressed in increase in profit process improvement and new product development in conclusion our study found out that the overall innovation capability of the firms was expressed in organizational innovations

coping with preference anomalies in cost benefit analysis a market simulation approach this paper proposes a methodological strategy for cost benefit analysis cba which does not require the assumption that individuals preferences satisfy standard coherence conditions and so renders cba immune to the problems generated by preference anomalies the proposal treats cba as an exercise in market simulation based on the measurement of surplus anomalies occur when surplus measurements vary according to the hypothetical payment mechanism used in such cases the mechanism that is the closest market analogue should be used this approach is used to resolve problems associated with some familiar anomalies including inconsistencies between citizen and consumer valuations and endowment effects

markets and states against minimalism abstract this paper argues against the currently fashionable case for state minimalism or laissez faire it not only argues for a strong state but also for an activist one though operating on a different basis from the many recently failed interventionist states the argument is developed via a critique of a series of overstated or one sided propositions that bolster the state minimalist position these include the notion of price distortions of inherently inefficient public enterprise of an unambiguous dividing line between the public and the private sectors and of statism as inherently rent seeking the paper seeks to rescue alternative perspectives from outside neoclassical political economy approach such as the importance of civil society and the need for a nonmaximizing theory of the state successful liberalization programs may require more intervention of a different kind at least for a transitional period a broad view of democracy is required allowing the possibility of state action guided by motives of public interest

starting point bias in dichotomous choice valuation with follow up questioning abstract follow up questions are frequently used to improve the efficiency of dichotomous choice contingent valuation questionnaires however a number of authors e g 12 16 have noted a significant difference between the wtp distributions implied by initial and follow up question responses this paper investigates starting point bias as one explanation for the phenomenon we develop a model of starting point bias in the context of dichotomous choice questioning with follow up using a monte carlo simulation to illustrate the potential bias imparted to wtp estimates an application is provided based on data from a cv study in northcentral iowa

on the sign of the investment uncertainty relationship understanding the effects of uncertainty over any decision variable has fascinated economists for a long time risk aversion and incomplete markets are likely to make the investment uncertainty relationship negative e g roger craine 1989 joseph zeira 1989 what happens in the absence of risk aversion and incomplete markets is however ambiguous richard hartman 1972 and andrew b abel 1983 1984 1985 found that in the presence of symmetric convex costs of adjustment mean preserving increases in price uncertainty raise investment of a competitive firm as long as the profit function is convex in prices on the other hand the recent literature on irreversible investment e g robert s pindyck 1988 giuseppe bertola 1988 has shown that increases in uncertainty lower investment all these results have been derived under either risk neutrality or complete markets intuition suggests that the explanation for such a difference lies with the asymmetric nature of adjustment costs in the irreversible investment case as compared with the symmetry of the adjustment cost mechanisms proposed by abel and hartman although this intuition is confirmed in this paper asymmetric adjustment costs are shown not to be sufficient to explain why the results differ in fact a more hidden but at least as important difference between these two literatures is that the former assumes perfect competition and constant returns to scale whereas the latter assumes either imperfect competition or decreasing returns to scale or both 2 the purpose of this paper is to highlight the role of the decreasing marginal return to capital assumption due to either imperfect competition or decreasing returns to scale or both in determining the effects of adjustment cost asymmetries on the sign of the response of investment to changes in uncertainty under risk neutrality for this the paper develops a simple model with a cost of adjustment mechanism general enough to consider both symmetric convexity and irreversibility as special cases one of the most important findings is the lack of robustness of the negative relationship between investment and uncertainty under asymmetric adjustment costs3 to changes in the degree of competition in fact when firms are nearly competitive the conclusion of hartman and of abel holds no matter how asymmetric adjustment costs are studying adjustment cost mechanisms has a central role in understanding the dynamics of investment and its business cycle implications but conclusive results about the sign of the instantaneous relationship between uncertainty and investment should not be department of economics columbia university new york ny 10027 i am grateful to giuseppe bertola prajit dutta glen hubbard anil kashyap richard lyons and the referees for their useful comments 1the financial literature on investment has considered risk aversion through a premium in the discount rate determined by the capm capital asset pricing model intertemporal capm or consumption capm however often this discount rate is left unchanged when studying the response of investment to uncertainty changes e g pindyck 1988 pp 974 5 thereby omitting the effect of changes in uncertainty on investment due to risk aversion and incomplete markets 2in the typical version of the irreversible investment problem there is no cost of upward adjustments thus imperfect competition and or decreasing returns to scale are required to bound the size of the firm 3in this paper asymmetric adjustment cost refers to the case in which it is more expensive to adjust downward than upward certainly the opposite case is a trivial extension of the case studied in this paper

common drifting volatility in large bayesian vars the general pattern of estimated volatilities of macroeconomic and financial variables is often broadly similar we propose two models in which conditional volatilities feature comovement and study them using u s macroeconomic data the first model specifies the conditional volatilities as driven by a single common unobserved factor plus an idiosyncratic component we label this model bvar with general factor stochastic volatility bvar gfsv and we show that the loss in terms of marginal likelihood from assuming a common factor for volatility is moderate the second model which we label bvar with common stochastic volatility bvar csv is a special case of the bvar gfsv in which the idiosyncratic component is eliminated and the loadings to the factor are set to 1 for all the conditional volatilities such restrictions permit a convenient kronecker structure for the posterior variance of the var coefficients which in turn permits estimating the model even with large datasets while perhaps misspecifi

the changing transmission of uncertainty shocks in the u s this article investigates if the impact of uncertainty shocks on the u s economy has changed over time to this end we develop an extended factor augmented vector autoregression var model that simultaneously allows the estimation of a measure of uncertainty and its time varying impact on a range of variables we find that the impact of uncertainty shocks on real activity and financial variables has declined systematically over time in contrast the response of inflation and the short term interest rate to this shock has remained fairly stable simulations from a nonlinear dynamic stochastic general equilibrium dsge model suggest that these empirical results are consistent with an increase in the monetary authorities antiinflation stance and a flattening of the phillips curve supplementary materials for this article are available online

context dependent preferences the standard theory of choice based on value maximization associates with each option a real value such that given an offered set the decision maker chooses the option with the highest value despite its simplicity and intuitive appeal there is a growing body of data that is inconsistent with this theory in particular the relative attractiveness of x compared to y often depends on the presence or absence of a third option z and the market share of an option can actually be increased by enlarging the offered set we review recent empirical findings that are inconsistent with value maximization and present a context dependent model that expresses the value of each option as an additive combination of two components a contingent weighting process that captures the effect of the background context and a binary comparison process that describes the effect of the local context the model accounts for observed violations of the standard theory and provides a framework for analyzing context dependent p

the effects of changing cost vectors on choices and scale heterogeneity choice experiments ce are widely used to estimate the values of changes in non market goods and services a cost attribute is typically included in a ce questionnaire to enable the estimation of monetary values for changes in the non market attributes presented notwithstanding the central importance of the cost attribute relatively little research has been undertaken on the impacts of varying cost attribute levels on value estimates or on individual heterogeneity in this paper i present results from mixed logit and generalised mixed logit models that account for unobserved idiosyncratic preference and scale heterogeneity respondents are found to anchor their choices on the relative cost levels presented in the survey with results suggesting that people are more sensitive to relative rather than absolute cost vectors however the higher cost levels do not lead to significantly higher value estimates partly because of observed preference heterogeneity towards the environmental attributes an important observation is that scale heterogeneity is important accounting for scale as well as preference heterogeneity in the generalised mixed logit model leads to significantly improved model fit the results indicate significant unobserved error variance across respondents unrelated to whether a high or low cost vector is used

investment in risky r d programs in the face of climate uncertainty we analyze how the socially optimal technology rd and that uncertainty in damages interacts with uncertainty in the returns to rd and r d that reduces the emissions to output ratio and argue that this is a good representation of r d into fossil fuel technologies for r d programs into non carbon technologies optimal investment is higher in riskier programs our empirical model indicates that the optimal investment in a risky program is about 3 1 2 times larger than in a program with certain returns for r d programs aimed at reducing emissions in fossil fuel based technologies our results show that qualitatively investment is higher in less risky programs under most uncertain damage scenarios our empirical model shows however that the risk profile of fossil fuel based r d programs generally has little quantitative impact on optimal investment the exception is that when the probability of a catastrophe inducing full abatement is very high investment is about twice as high in risky programs compared to programs with certain returns

the length of the infant industry period evidence from the engineering industry in south korea abstract in the literature on industrialization very little is known about the length of the infant industry period this paper argues that the paucity of knowledge in this area is a serious weakness evidence from perhaps the most successful country of the past 20 years south korea suggests that the learning time in the engineering industry is much longer than anticipated two decades does not seem to be unusual it is also argued that due to both the speed of technical change and the globalization of industries the learning time has been extended in the past decades tentative implications are drawn for industrialization models and for industrial policy

optimal capital structure and investment with real options and endogenous debt costs we examine the joint optimization of financial leverage and irreversible capacity investment in a real options framework with risky debt and endogenous interest costs higher capacity ceteris paribus increases operating leverage and default probability but lowers ex post adjustment costs and generates larger tax shields a key insight is that financial leverage and capacity are substitutes in the debt market equilibrium we develop novel predictions about the effects of capital adjustment costs operating costs and uncertainty on optimal financial leverage and capacity that may potentially help explain ambiguous empirical results in the literature regarding the determinants of capital structure and investment received march 17 2016 editorial decision july 8 2017 by editor itay goldstein

national innovation systems and the intermediary role of industry associations in building institutional capacities for innovation in developing countries a critical review of the literature abstract developed over the past three decades the national innovation system concept nis has been widely used by both scholars and policy makers to explain how interactions between a set of distinct nationally bounded institutions supports and facilitates technological change and the emergence and diffusion of new innovations this concept provides a framework by which developing countries can adopt for purposes of catching up initially conceived on structures and interactions identified in economically advanced countries the application of the nis concept to developing countries has been gradual and has coincided in the nis literature with a move away from overly macro interpretations to an emphasis on micro level interactions and processes with much of this work questioning the nation state as the most appropriate level of analysis as well as the emergence of certain intermediary actors thought to facilitate knowledge exchange between actors and institutions this paper reviews the nis literature chronologically showing how this shift in emphasis has diminished somewhat the importance of both institutions particularly governments and the political processes of institutional capacity building in doing so the paper suggests that more recent literature on intermediaries such as industry associations may offer valuable insights to how institutional capacity building occurs and how it might be directed particularly in the context of developing countries where governance capacities are often lacking contributing to less effective innovation systems stagnant economies and unequal development

choke price bias in choice experiments this paper reports on the results from a split sample choice experiment where the effect of changing the maximum level of the cost attribute is investigated the hypothesis was that changing the maximum price level would either give rise to an income effect or have no effect on consumers preferences this was tested in the framework of a valuation study of different quality characteristics of minced pork the data was analysed using a mixed logit error component model which accounts for correlation in the unobserved part of the utility results suggest that the size of the maximum price level does matter and that changing the maximum price level has a statistically significant effect on both the general preferences structure and the wtp estimates hence researchers should be very careful when defining not only the range of the price attribute but also the maximum level of the price attribute

valuation of small and multiple health risks a critical analysis of sp data applied to food and water safety this study elicits individual risk preferences in the context of an infectious disease using choice experiments a main objective is to examine scope sensitivity using a novel approach our results suggest that the value of a mortality risk reduction vsl is highly sensitive to the survey design our results cast doubt on the standard scope sensitivity tests in choice experiments but also on the validity and reliability of vsl estimates based on stated preference studies in general this is important due to the large empirical literature on non market evaluation and the elicited values central role in policy making

dynamic learning and context dependence in sequential attribute based stated preference valuation questions a hybrid stated preference model is presented that combines the referendum contingent valuation response format with an experimentally designed set of attributes a sequence of valuation questions is asked to a random sample in a mailout mail back format econometric analysis shows greater discrimination between alternatives in the final choice in the sequence and the vector of preference parameters shifts lead and lag choice sets have a structural influence on current choices and unobserved factors induce positive correlation across the responses these results indicate that people learn about their preferences for attributebased environmental goods by comparing attribute levels across choice sets

the influence of task complexity on consumer choice a latent class model of decision strategy switching the literature indicating that person context and task specific factors cause consumers to utilize different decision strategies has generally failed to affect the specification of choice models used by practitioners and academics alike who still tend to assume an utility maximizing omniscient indefatigable consumer this article 1 introduces decision strategy selection within a maintained compensatory framework into aggregate choice models via latent classes which arise because of task complexity 2 it demonstrates that within an experimental choice task the model reflects changing aggregate preferences as choice complexity changes and as the task progresses the import of these findings for current practice model interpretation and future research needs is examined

industrial policy and the wto this paper reviews the objectives and instruments of industrial policy in a changing global context and multilateral rules and discipline the authors provide an analytical review of the objective and justification for industrial policy pursued by countries the importance of having an analytical framework is that it becomes the benchmark against which objectives instruments and outcomes can be measured the use of different instruments for industrial policy is reviewed the paper assesses whether changes have been due to compliance to multilateral and or regional commitments and whether due to unilateral reform efforts the authors focus on the role of industrial policy in the post uruguay round era with a view to the next round of wto negotiations the research examines both the theoretical and applied aspects of industrial policy before surveying the extent to which existing wto rules affect a member s ability to pursue industrial policy objectives the possibilities and implications of revising rules that affect the use of industrial policy instruments in the next round are examined the paper concludes with a final section to review the implications for developing economies

changing with the tide semiparametric estimation of preference dynamics we contrast the discovered preference hypothesis against the theory of coherent arbitrariness in a split sample stated choice experiment on flood risk exposure a semiparametric local multinomial logit model is developed as an alternative to the swait and louviere 1993 test procedure controlling for preference dynamics within and between samples the proposed model supports the discovered preference hypothesis by means of a decaying starting point bias the swait and louviere 1993 test procedure reaches a different conclusion it rejects the assumption of stable preferences but most preference dynamics tend to be smoothed out causing a more erratic pattern of preference dynamics

coherent arbitrariness stable demand curves without stable preferences economic theories of valuation generally assume that prices of commodities and assets are derived from underlying fundamental values for example in finance theory asset prices are believed to reflect the market estimate of the discounted present value of the asset s payoff stream in labor theory the supply of labor is established by the tradeoff between the desire for consumption and the displeasure of work finally and most importantly for this chapter consumer microeconomics assumes that the demand curves for consumer products chocolates cds movies vacations drugs and so forth can be ultimately traced to the valuation of pleasures that consumers anticipate receiving from these products because it is difficult as a rule to measure fundamental values directly empirical tests of economic theory typically examine whether the effects of changes in circumstances on valuations are consistent with theoretical prediction for example whether labor supply responds appropriately to a change in the wage rate whether compensated demand curves for commodities are downward sloping or whether stock prices respond in the predicted way to share repurchases however such comparative static relationships are a necessary but not sufficient condition for fundamental valuation e g summers 1986 becker 1962 was perhaps the first to make this point explicitly when he observed that consumers choosing commodity bundles randomly from their budget set would nevertheless produce downward sloping demand curves

information bias in contingent valuation effects of personal relevance quality of information and motivational orientation abstract a laboratory experiment examined the potential for information bias in contingent valuation cv consistent with the view that information about a public or private good can function as a persuasive communication willingness to pay wtp was found to increase with the quality of arguments used to describe the good especially under conditions of high personal relevance under low personal relevance wtp for a public but not for a private good was higher when an altruistic as opposed to an individualistic orientation was activated it is concluded that the nature of the information provided in cv surveys can profoundly affect wtp estimates and that subtle contextual cues can seriously bias these estimates under conditions of low personal relevance

east asian economic performance miracle or just a pleasant surprise p ublication of the east asian miracle eam world bank 1993 appears to borrow a phrase to have generated more heat than light the eam analysed reasons for the economic success of the eight high performing asian economies hpaes hong kong indonesia japan malaysia republic of korea singapore taiwan and thailand the hope at least of neutral observers was that we would be able to derive lessons regarding effective economic policies from a study of the experiences of the successful east asian economies the general criticism of the report is that it tried to mould the hpaes experiences so that the lessons were consistent with bank policy in the process losing many distinguishing features of the eam more serious criticisms are that the report obfuscated and distorted the truth it is not our intention to reopen debate about the report fully aired in a special issue of world development april 1994 and rodrik 1994 we do wish to address three questions what were the distinguishing features of the east asian economic success that led some observers to claim a miracle what elements of economic policy contributed to their success and are such elements present in the economic policies proposed by the bank in for example adjustment programmes are there features of the hpaes that can be adapted to help design successful policies for other countries put succinctly what did they do that appears so good how did they do it and can others do it writing in 1998 it may appear irrelevant to talk of an east asian miracle as so many of the economies we consider have recently endured currency crises of varying degrees of severity current problems should not detract from the sustained and generally impressive growth achieved by these economies over the

estimating the willingness to pay for reliable electricity supply a choice experiment study abstract this research examines households willingness to pay wtp for an improved electricity service households stated wtp is estimated using the choice experiment ce method the data used in the estimations come from 350 in person interviews conducted during the period 5 22 august 2008 in north cyprus compensating variation cv estimates for a zero outage scenario are calculated using the parameter estimates from the mixed logit ml model these are 6 65 ytl turkish lira per month 3 02 usd for summer and 25 83 ytl per month 11 74 usd for winter in order to avoid the cost of outages households are willing to incur a 3 6 and a 13 9 increase in their monthly electricity bill for summer and winter respectively the wtp per hour unserved is 0 28 ytl 0 13 usd for summer and 1 08 ytl 0 49 usd for winter a preliminary cost benefit analysis indicates that the annualized economic benefits are approximately 42 7 million ytl 19 4 million usd for the residential sector this would justify an investment in additional generation capacity of approximately 268 mw which is far more than that which is needed to eliminate the service reliability problem

time varying impact of uncertainty shocks on the us housing market abstract this paper investigates the impact of uncertainty shocks on the housing market of the united states using the time varying parameter factor augmented vector autoregression tvp favar we use a comprehensive quarterly time series dataset on real economic activity price and financial variables besides housing market variables covering the period 1963 q1 to 2014 q3 in addition to housing prices we also consider variables related to home sales permits and starts in general the results of the cumulative response of housing variables to a one standard deviation positive uncertainty shock at the one four eight and twelve quarter horizon tends to change over time both in terms of sign and magnitude with the uncertainty shock primarily negatively affecting the housing variables in particular prices permits and starts in longer runs i e two and three years ahead horizons

what you don t know might hurt you some unresolved issues in the design and analysis of discrete choice experiments the papers and comments in this issue focus on four broad areas related to understanding and modeling choices 1 the use of laboratory experiments to improve valuation methods 2 the design of stated preference choice set and choice occasions 3 latent class models as means of identifying and accommodating preference heterogeneity and 4 accommodating uncertainty about the true model modeling ranking and rating tasks and pooling data sources in what follows i offer some comments on each area and briefly discuss several unresolved issues associated with each area closing with some comments about future research opportunities