cost uncertainty and the rate of investment abstract this paper examines the effect of cost and price uncertainty on the optimal rate of investment by firms within a general equilibrium framework former works which have studied this issue like hartman 1972 and abel 1983 1984 1985 have come to the conclusion that this effect is positive since increased price uncertainty raises expected profitability but these studies assume a fixed discount rate which is equivalent to assuming that consumers are risk neutral this paper shows that if consumers are risk averse the effect of uncertainty may be reversed and investment may be depressed when price or cost uncertainty is increased

learning and wage dynamics we develop a dynamic model of learning about worker ability in a competitive labor market the model produces three testable implications regarding wage dynamics 1 although the role of schooling in the labor market s inference process declines as performance observations accumulate the estimated effect of schooling on the level of wages is independent of labor market experience 2 timeinvariant variables correlated with ability but unobserved by employers such as certain test scores are increasingly correlated with wages as experience increases and 3 wage residuals are a martingale we present evidence from the nlsy that is broadly consistent with the model s predictions

the effects of uncertainty on investment and the expected long run capital stock abstract this paper examines the effects of output price uncertainty on the optimal investment behavior of a risk neutral competitive firm with a constant returns to scale production function in the presence of convex costs of adjustment investment is an increasing function of q the shadow price of capital given the current price of output we find that increased uncertainty will raise the current rate of investment increased uncertainty will also increase the expected long run capital stock if the price of output is serially uncorrelated however if the price of output is serially correlated then the direction of the effect of increased uncertainty on the expected long run capital stock depends on the curvature of the marginal adjustment cost function in this case we obtain results which are directly opposite of the results in the literature and we locate the flaw in the existing analysis

the impact of the 2008 financial crisis on dynamic productivity growth of the spanish food manufacturing industry an impulse response analysis the emergence of a financial crisis is an event that can impact the fortunes of nearly all economic agents the focus here is on the 2008 financial crisis and how firms productivity growth was impacted by this crisis in the years that followed this article focuses on dynamic productivity growth and its components using a firm level data set of spanish meat processing dairy processing and oils and fats firms the impulse response analysis shows that the impact of the crisis on dynamic productivity growth is negative and persistent in the oils and fats industry initially positive but then negative in the meat processing industry and positive in the dairy processing industry the observed magnitudes of change in indicator are between 2 and 5 for oils and fats industries and of 1 in both dairy and meat industries our analysis further confirms that firms size is an important factor in explaining how crisis impacts dynamic productivity growth and its components while we find only slight evidence regarding the firms experience in the market

estimating the effect of hierarchies on information use theory suggests that greater hierarchical distance between a subordinate and his boss makes it more di cult to share abstract and subjective information in decision making a novel data set put together from credit dossiers of large corporate loan applicants enables us to observe the information collected by loan o cers and also how it is used by the ultimate loan approving o cer we flnd that greater hierarchical geographical distance between the information collecting agent and the loan approving o cer leads to less reliance on subjective information and more on objective information by exploiting non linearities in the assignment rules that determine an applicant s hierarchical distance and using information collecting agent flxed efiects we show that our result cannot be driven by endogenous assignment of applicants we also flnd that higher frequency of interactions between the information collecting agent and loan approving o cer both over time and through geographical proximity helps mitigate the efiects of hierarchical distance on information use our results show that hierarchical distance in uences information use and highlights the importance of human touch in communication

technology is changing lending implications for research abstract costello down and mehta 2020 trace their slider intervention to deviations from the credit line amount recommended by a credit scoring model the deviations are followed by larger delinquency declines and bigger sales orders and costello et al interpret these results using discretion based theories however incremental deviations are concentrated on newer clients rather than those the lender has accumulated soft information about deviations also appear larger for public than private borrowers my discussion evaluates whether these results align with discretion based theories and explores alternative interpretations based on salience and unique aspects of the trade credit setting differences in interpretation aside the evidence is informative about technological advances in commercial lending i conclude with an overview of several recent advances and discuss the implications for lending research

the investor specific price of renewable energy project risk a choice experiment with incumbent utilities and institutional investors abstract renewable energy investments in germany have recently soared trebling the output of wind and solar power generation in only ten years while incumbent utilities have lagged behind in terms of investment new entrants have significantly contributed to this growth existing literature has primarily focused on explaining the lethargy of incumbents former investments although there is a growing need to investigate recent investment drivers to secure the necessary power plant capacity at a moderate cost from incumbents and new entrants alike to close this gap a choice experiment involving 1 659 investment choices by 52 european professional investors was conducted in significant contrast to the case with altruistic investors this survey underlines the importance of using financial incentives to attract professional investors given full exposure to electricity price risk incumbent utilities would facilitate projects at a 3 04 risk premium whereas institutional investors demand 6 61 generally incumbent utilities and institutional investors are equally attracted by low risk projects however when risk increases institutional investors are more hesitant to become involved while incumbent utilities confidently navigate these higher risk projects

price discovery and learning during the preopening period in the paris bourse before the opening of the paris bourse traders place orders and indicative prices are set this offers a laboratory to study empirically the t tonnement process through which markets discover equilibrium prices since preopening orders can be revised or canceled before the opening indicative prices could be noise we test this against the hypothesis that preopening prices reflect learning early in the preopening the noise hypothesis is not rejected as the opening gets closer the informational content and efficiency of prices increase and the learning hypothesis is not rejected we also propose a gmm based estimate of the speed of learning

is the post fossil era necessarily post capitalistic the robustness and capabilities of green capitalism abstract our central target is to show that capitalism is not only much more robust to crises than presumed by its critics but also features promising capabilities with regard to solving the environmental crisis to elaborate this thesis we analyse how far capitalism can survive given the end of fossil energy carriers and may maintain its productivity under the preconditions of a regenerative energy system in a further step we demonstrate that crises may actually provide the prerequisites of the economy s transformation towards sustainability we argue that especially competitive capitalism as analysed by schumpeter offers excellent preconditions for generating environmental innovations however we will also point out the numerous social problems of green infrastructure projects in the last section we assume that markets alone will not suffice to concertedly solve the global environmental crisis here political action is needed that pools societal forces with regard to the ecological challenges hence specifically promoting desirable innovations the usefulness of state measures is to be judged in correlation to the respective specific national political and economic contexts a generalised opposition to capitalistic social orders disregards the complexity of these contexts and is at danger of omitting decisive determinants of crisis management

measurement of dynamic efficiency a directional distance function parametric approach this research proposes a parametric estimation of the structural dynamic efficiency measures proposed by silva and oude lansink 2009 overall technical and allocative efficiency measurements are derived based on a directional distance function and the duality between this function and the optimal value function the applicability of the parametric proposal is illustrated by assessing dynamic efficiency ratings for a sample of dutch dairy farms observed from 1995 to 2005

going beyond best technology and lowest price on renewable energy investors preference for service driven business models abstract renewable energy is becoming increasingly important for economies in many countries but still in an emerging industry renewable energy requires supportive energy policy helping firms to develop and protect competitive advantages in global competition as a guideline for designing such policy we consult well informed stakeholders within the renewable energy industry investors their preferences serve as explorative indicator for assessing which business models might succeed in competition to contribute to only limited research on renewable energy investors preferences we ask which business models investment managers for renewable energy prefer to invest in we report from an explorative study of 380 choices of renewable energy investment managers based on the stated preferences we modelled three generic business models to calculate the share of investors preferences we find exiting evidence a customer intimacy business model that proposes best services is much more preferred by investors than business models that propose lowest price or best technology policy makers can use those insights for designing policy that supports service driven business models for renewable energy with a scope on customer needs rather than technology or price additionally we state important implications for renewable energy entrepreneurs managers and research

the impact of the 1999 cap reforms on the efficiency of the cop sector in spain the cereal oilseeds and protein crop sector cop occupies a prominent position within the european union s agricultural sector within spain the cop sector accounts for almost a third of total agricultural guidance and guarantee fund expenses and half of the utilized agricultural area uaa the cop sector is not only relevant because of its physical and economic magnitude but also because of the political attention it receives the common agricultural policy cap reforms that occurred during the 1990s paid special attention to this sector this article aims to determine the impacts of agenda 2000 on a sample of spanish cop farmers production decisions by using an output oriented stochastic distance function the distance function allows for an assessment of the reform motivated changes on total output input used input composition and crop mix it also permits an assessment of the impacts of the reform on farms technical efficiency results show that the reform has shifted the production frontier inward and changed output composition in favor of voluntary set aside land with respect to input composition agenda 2000 induced a decrease in land fertilizers pesticides and other inputs in favor of labor in addition agenda 2000 has had a negative impact on technical efficiency

creating venture capital industries that co evolve with high tech insights from an extended industry life cycle perspective of the israeli experience this paper presents an industry life cycle model of venture capital vc and associated startup intensive high tech clusters based on the israeli experience of the last 35 years throughout vc is considered as a new industry which when successful traverses five phases background conditions pre emergence emergence restructuring and consolidation each phase comprises a number of events and processes including policy ones a central process is vc emergence a cumulative self reinforcing process involving a number of interrelated sub processes a central sub process in the israeli case was vc startup co evolution which was the critical link between the vc emergence and the transformation of the high tech cluster into a startup intensive configuration our analysis suggests that provided appropriate background conditions prevail vc could be central vector in the transformation of existing high tech clusters 2006 elsevier b v all rights reserved

undesired reinforcement of harmful self evident truths concerning the implementation of wind power abstract this viewpoint draws attention to a lingering simplistic and faulty interpretation of the complex phenomenon of acceptance of renewables and their implementation in concrete projects by all relevant actors namely the backyard theory during the last decade research that investigated nimby has provided support to disprove the two prime hypotheses proximity and decreasing property value the current mainstream trend in academic circles is clearly towards abandoning nimby explanations however in practice among developers and policymakers nimby thinking still prevails unfortunately there is also some academic writing that persists in recycling the backyard theory despite ample research to the contrary thus feeding this faulty interpretation of implementation problems a recent review of the state of the art of wind power implementation is taken as an example it presents nimby as a common sense self evident truth while to support this explanation it cites publications that actually refute this view and instead support the mainstream move towards abandoning nimby thinking this shift is important because further academic support for this concept would serve to hinder rapid deployment of wind power and also other renewables

dynamic efficiency estimation the shadow cost approach is developed in the context of the dynamic duality model of intertemporal decision making to formulate theoretical and econometric models of dynamic efficiency the dynamic efficiency model is applied to a panel of 72 u s major investor owned electric utilities using fossil fuel fired steam electric power generation over the period 1986 1999 the major results show that most electric utilities underutilized fuel relative to the aggregated labor and the maintenance input and overutilized capital in production states adopting a deregulation plan improve the performance of utilities in terms of the technical efficiency of variable inputs

an experimental examination of the walrasian tatonnement mechanism this is a systematic experimental comparison of the efficiency and competitive properties of a computerized multiunit tatonnement with or without a dynamic improvement rule with or without publicity of order flow information all versions of the tatonnement are comparatively less efficient than the continuous double auction the tatonnement yields competitive prices but both sides tend to underreveal demand supply causing inefficiency only the full information no improvement rule version of the tatonnement procedure approaches the efficiency of the double auction

the effects of usury laws evidence from the online loan market abstract usury laws cap the interest rates that lenders can charge using data from prosper com an online lending marketplace i investigate the effects of these laws the key to my empirical strategy is that there was initially substantial variability in states interest rate caps ranging from 6 to 36 a behind the scenes change in loan origination however suddenly increased the cap to 36 the main findings of the study are that higher interest rate caps increase the probability that a loan will be funded especially if the borrower was previously just outside the money i do not find however changes in loan amounts and default probability the interest rate paid rises slightly probably because online lending is substantially yet imperfectly integrated with the general credit market

dynamic multi directional inefficiency analysis of european dairy manufacturing firms abstract this paper extends the method of multi directional inefficiency analysis to account for dynamics of firms production decisions the resulting approach dynamic multi directional inefficiency analysis measures variable input and investment specific inefficiency using data envelopment analysis the empirical application focuses on panel data of large dairy manufacturing firms over the period 2005 2012 in three european regions eastern southern and western the results show that investments are the most inefficient factor for firms in all european regions followed by labour and materials however the findings also suggest a high dispersion of investment specific inefficiency scores within the sample the paper also finds that the median dynamic inefficiency is changing rapidly in the years after the beginning of the financial crisis

dynamic data envelopment analysis modeling intertemporal behavior of a firm in the presence of productive inefficiencies abstract this study extends data envelopment analysis dea to a dynamic framework our dynamic dea not only provides a measure of dynamic productive efficiency but can also be used as a nonparametric alternative to the econometric modeling of the intertemporal behavior of a firm

outside enterpreneurial capital this article investigates factors that affect rejection rates in applications for outside finance among different types of investors banks venture capital funds leasing firms factoring firms trade customers and suppliers partners and working shareholders private individuals and other sources taking into account the non randomness in a firm s decision to seek outside finance the data support the traditional pecking order theory further the data indicate that firms seeking capital are typically able to secure their requisite financing from at least one of the different available sources however external finance is often not available in the form that a firm would like this article engages with four interrelated empirical questions first what are the characteristics of privately held entrepreneurial firms that seek external outside finance and what drives the request for capital from the different potential sources of external finance banks venture capitalists private individuals leasing factoring suppliers customers partners working shareholders among other sources second what are the factors that lead to rejection or acceptance of requests for external finance given this non randomness in the types of firms that seek external finance in the spirit of heckman 1976 1979 third as various forms of financing are far from being perfect substitutes are there differences in the ability of firms to obtain capital from the different available sources fourth can firms obtain all of their desired capital from the different available sources even if it is not in the form they would like it is widely recognised that the decision to seek external finance and the type of financing sought is related to information asymmetries faced by investors regarding the entrepreneurial firm s quality see for example jensen and meckling 1976 1 where

a patent race in a real options setting investment strategy valuation capm beta and return volatility abstract in this paper we study financial properties of r d intensive firms through a continuous time real options patent race model numerical analysis in this study shows that intense competition drives a firm to invest more aggressively which then pushes up its cost of capital and return volatility while introducing negative return correlation with its competitor furthermore we find that a firm s position in competition has important impacts on its financial properties for instance a firm s cost of capital is a non monotonic function of its relative position in the race in addition the relationship between cash flow uncertainty and investment can be negative when a firm is far ahead or far behind or positive when firms are close in the race

predicting catastrophe risk evidence from catastrophe bond markets abstract compared to the past literature on prediction markets that uses small scale observational field data or experiments this present research examines the efficiency of such markets by studying catastrophe cat bonds we collect actual catastrophe loss data match them with the defined trigger events of each cat bond contract and then employ an empirical pricing framework to obtain the excess cat premiums in order to represent the market based forecasts our results indeed show that market based forecasts have more significant predictive content for future cat losses than professional forecasts that use natural catastrophe risk models although the predictive information for cat events is specialized and complex our evidence supports that cat bond markets are successful prediction markets that efficiently aggregate information about future cat losses our resultsalso highlight that actual cat losses in future periods can explain the excess cat bond spreads in the primary market and provide support for market efficiency when pricing cat risk

what s in a picture evidence of discrimination from prosper com abstract we find evidence of significant racial disparities in a new type of credit market known as peer to peer lending loan listings with blacks in the attached picture are 25 to 35 percent less likely to receive funding than those of whites with similar credit profiles despite the higher average interest rates charged to blacks lenders making such loans earn a lower net return compared to loans made to whites with similar credit profiles because blacks have higher relative default rates these results provide insight into whether the discrimination we find is taste based or statistical

rational expectations and the aggregation of diverse information in laboratory security markets the idea that markets might aggregate and disseminate information and also resolve conflicts is central to the literature on decentralization hurwicz 1972 and rational expectations lucas 1972 we report on three series of experiments all of which were predicted to have performed identically by the theory of rational expectations in two of the three series one in which participants trade a complete set of arrow debreu securities and a second in which all participants have identical preferences double auction trading leads to efficient aggregation of diverse information and rational expectations equilibrium failure of the third series to exhibit such convergence demonstrates the importance of market institutions and trading instruments in achievement of equilibrium

do international investors enhance private firm value evidence from venture capital we examine the impact of international venture capital investors on private firm success spanning 81 countries over the years 1995 2010 the data examined indicate that relative to deals in which the investor base is purely domestic private firms that have an international investor base have a higher probability of exiting via an initial public offering ipo and higher ipo proceeds the evidence is consistent with the view that while the benefits of internationalization may be difficult and costly to manage for those firms that succeed in managing cross border coordination costs there is potential value for an ipo firm the benefits relative to the costs of internationalizing the investor base for private firms sold in acquisitions by contrast are much less pronounced the most important source of this benefit appears to be access to capital

dynamic efficiency measurement theory and application nonparametric dynamic measures of production efficiency are developed in the context of an adjustment cost technology and intertemporal cost minimization bounds on each efficiency measure are derived for each firm using a nonparametric revealed preference approach long run efficiency measures indicate the relative efficiency of both variable and dynamic factors while short run measures of efficiency indicate whether variable inputs are employed efficiently in the production process the efficiency measures are temporal in nature by describing the degree of efficiency of the firm at a particular point along its adjustment path the empirical implementation is illustrated for a balanced panel of pennsylvania dairy operators during 1986 1992

university spin out companies and venture capital abstract the creation of university spin out companies that create wealth is a major policy objective of governments and universities finance is a catalyst of this wealth creation yet access to venture capital is a major impediment faced by these companies in this article we adopt a finance pecking order perspective to examine the problems faced by those university spin out companies seeking to access venture capital we triangulate evidence from spin out companies university technology transfer offices and venture capital firms in the uk and continental europe to identify the problems and to suggest policy developments for these parties as well as government we compare perceptions of high tech venture capital firms that invest in spin outs with those that do not and also consider vcs views on spin outs versus other high tech firms our evidence identifies a mismatch between the demand and supply side of the market in line with the pecking order theory venture capitalists prefer to invest after the seed stage however in contrast to the pecking order theory ttos see venture capital as more important than internal funds early on we develop policy implications for universities technology transfer offices academic entrepreneurs venture capital firms and government and suggest areas for further research

a reduced form model for dynamic efficiency measurement application to dairy farms in germany and the netherlands the stochastic distance function model is extended to allow for the inefficiency component of the error term to be autocorrelated as implied by a dynamic model of firm behavior the autocorrelation parameter can then be interpreted as a measure of the persistence of inefficiency the model is viewed from a state space perspective and kalman filtering techniques are proposed for estimation the model is applied to two panels of dairy farms from germany and the netherlands the results suggest a very high degree of persistence of inefficiency through time

public versus private venture capital seeding or crowding out a pan european analysis abstract this paper analyzes the relationship between public and private sources of venture capital in europe and the development of the industry controlling for characteristics of the legal systems in 15 european countries over the period 1990 1996 large public participation is correlated with smaller vc industries but analyses do not support the view that public venture capitalists are acting to seed the industry or that are they crowd out private funds on the contrary public involvement seems to cause greater amounts of money to be invested in the industry as a whole we argue that the effects of public intervention whatever the motives are real and probably result from demonstrating sanctioning the social merit of venture capital and from signaling an enduring commitment to it

are china s new energy stock prices driven by new energy policies abstract this paper studies the impact of china s new energy policies on expected changes and volatility in new energy stock prices considering different kinds of policies energy legislation binding targets for new energies economic incentives and technological research and development and several new energy indexes china s new energy sector and the solar wind nuclear and lithium battery subsectors we used a regression model with a garch specification and dummy variables to differentiate policy pre and post announcement effects on expected returns and volatility our evidence indicates that pre and post announcement energy legislation policies dampened price volatility in all subsector indexes and that economic incentives had a positive policy announcement effect on all subsector index prices other new energy policies had no significant impact on either the mean or the volatility of the new energy assets the potential implications for policy makers and investors are discussed

liar s loan effects of origination channel and information falsification on mortgage delinquency 1 this paper presents an analysis of mortgage delinquency between 2004 and 2008 using a loan level data set from a major national mortgage bank our analysis highlights two problems underlying the mortgage crisis a reliance on mortgage brokers who tend to originate lower quality loans and a prevalence of low documentation loans known in the industry as liar s loans that result in borrower information falsification while over three quarters of the difference in delinquency rates between bank and broker channels can be attributed to observable loan and borrower characteristics the delinquency difference between full and low documentation mortgages is due to unobservable heterogeneity about half of it potentially due to income falsification

investment under uncertainty and dynamic adjustment in the finnish pork industry bykyosti s pietola and robert j myersmay 1998paper prepared for a selected paper session at the annual meeting of the american agriculturaleconomics association salt lake city utah august 1998 this research was financed jointly byagricultural economics research institute in finland the academy of finland and the finnishcultural foundation we also knowledge the michigan agricultural experiment station for itssupport of this research authors are agricultural economist agricultural economics research institute helsinki finland and associate professor department of agricultural economics michigan state university eastlansing copyright 1998 by kyosti s pietola and robert j myers all rights reserved readers may makeverbatim copies of this document for non commercial purposes by any means provided that thiscopyright notice appears on all such copies

primal and dual dynamic luenberger productivity indicators abstract this paper develops primal and dual versions of the dynamic luenberger productivity growth measures that are based on the dynamic directional distance function and intertemporal cost minimization respectively the empirical application focuses on panel data of dutch dairy farms over the period 1995 2005 primal dynamic luenberger productivity growth averages 1 5 percent annually in the period under investigation with technical change being the main driver of annual change dual dynamic luenberger productivity growth is 0 1 percent in the same period improvements in technical inefficiency and technical change are partly counteracted by deteriorations of allocative inefficiency with large dairy farms presenting a slightly higher productivity growth than small dairy farms

social acceptance of renewable energy innovation an introduction to the concept this paper introduces the special issue on social acceptance of renewable energy innovation it is a collection of best papers presented at an international research conference held in tramelan switzerland in february 2006 while there are ambitious government targets to increase the share of renewable energy in many countries it is increasingly recognized that social acceptance may be a constraining factor in achieving this target this is particularly apparent in the case of wind energy which has become a subject of contested debates in several countries largely due to its visual impact on landscapes this paper introduces three dimensions of social acceptance namely socio political community and market acceptance factors influencing socio political and community acceptance are increasingly recognized as being important for understanding the apparent contradictions between general public support for renewable energy innovation and the difficult realization of specific projects the third dimension market acceptance has received less attention so far and provides opportunities for further research particularly from management scholars

adjustment costs uncertainty and the behavior of the firm this paper examines the effects of demand and cost uncertainty on a firm s investment output and pricing decisions but unlike most earlier studies in which demand and cost are simply not known at the time an output or pricing decision is made here i consider uncertainties over future demand and costs it will be seen that the effects of such uncertainties depend critically on the characteristics of the firm s adjustment costs i treat demand uncertainty in a dynamic context by letting the market demand function shift randomly but continuously through time according to a stochastic process this means that today s demand is known exactly but future demand may be larger or smaller and has a variance that increases with the time horizon likewise uncertainty over factor costs is characterized by treating those variables as stochastic processes i combine this characterization of uncertainty with a dynamic model of the firm in which some factor inputs can be adjusted freely in response to stochastic demand changes but other factors are quasi fixed in that adjustment costs are incurred when they are changed in this model the firm s price and output are random processes but we can examine the firm s behavior in expected value terms of interest is whether the presence of uncertainty should cause competitive or monopolistic firms to invest and produce more or less than they would otherwise how the effects of uncertainty are influenced by the presence of risk aversion and how the use of inventories can alter the impact of uncertainty on capacity and sales of course these questions have been addressed by others in the past among the earliest studies of demand uncertainty are those of edwin mills 1959 1962 and samuel karlin and charles carr 1962 mills examined a single period monopolistic firm that sets both output and price and showed that additive demand uncertainty i e the demand function is of the form q q p u where u is a random variable leads to a lower price if marginal cost is constant so that the firm reduces the expected loss from discarding unsold production karlin and carr confirmed for both the static case and the multiperiod case with inventory carryover that additive uncertainty tends to reduce the price and increase the output of a risk neutral firm while multiplicative uncertainty does the opposite other papers have been concerned with the way in which the error term enters the demand function additively multiplicatively or nonlinearly the implications of choosing price ex ante instead of output the implications of risk aversion and the use of inventories for example agnar sandmo 1971 and david baron 1970 showed that a risk averse competitive firm will produce less when the price is a random variable or subject to an additive error term but a riskneutral firm will not alter its production hayne leland 1972 extended these results to a monopolistic firm whose demand can depend in a general way on a random error term for example q q p u and showed that uncertainty reduces the production of a

informational frictions and the credit crunch in this paper i estimate the magnitude of an informational friction limiting credit reallocation to firms during the 2007 to 2009 financial crisis because lenders rely on private information when deciding which relationship to end borrowers looking for a new lender are adversely selected i show how to separately identify private information from information common to all lenders but unobservable to the econometrician by using bank shocks within a discrete choice model of relationships quantitatively these informational frictions appear to be too small to explain the credit crunch in the u s syndicated corporate loan market

screening peers softly inferring the quality of small borrowers this paper examines the performance of new online lending markets that rely on nonexpert individuals to screen their peers creditworthiness we find that these peer lenders predict an individual s likelihood of defaulting on a loan with 45 greater accuracy than the borrower s exact credit score unobserved by the lenders who only see a credit category moreover peer lenders achieve 87 of the predictive power of an econometrician who observes all standard financial information about borrowers screening through soft or nonstandard information is relatively more important when evaluating lower quality borrowers our results highlight how aggregating over the views of peers and leveraging nonstandard information can enhance lending efficiency this paper was accepted by amit seru finance

risky business the allocation of capital abstract in models of the firm a mean preserving spread in the price of output increases the expected value of profits and frequently the firm s demand for capital these results seem to contradict the conventional wisdom from financial asset pricing models where an increase in an asset s risk decreases the demand for that asset this paper shows that in general equilibrium an increase in exogenous risk usually increases expected output in that technology the result from the theory of the firm but it may also increase the risk of that technology the results from finance an increase in exogenous risk always reallocates capital toward less risky businesses

the role of soft information in a dynamic contract setting evidence from the home equity credit market credit underwriting is a dynamic process involving multiple interactions between borrower and lender during this process lenders have the opportunity to obtain hard and soft information from the borrower we analyze more than 108 000 home equity loans and lines of credit applications to study the role of soft and hard information during underwriting our data set allows us to distinguish lender actions that are based strictly on hard information from decisions that involve the collection of soft information our analysis confirms the importance of soft information and suggests that its use can be effective in reducing overall portfolio credit losses ex post

econometric estimation of technical and environmental efficiency an application to dutch dairy farms in this article we estimate the technical and environmental efficiency of a panel of dutch dairy farms nitrogen surplus arising from the application of excessive amounts of manure and chemical fertilizer is treated as an environmentally detrimental input a stochastic translog production frontier is specified to estimate the output oriented technical efficiency environmental efficiency is estimated as the input oriented technical efficiency of a single input the nitrogen surplus of each farm the mean output oriented technical efficiency is rather high 0 894 but the mean input oriented environmental efficiency is only 0 441 intensive dairy farms are both technically and environmentally more efficient than extensive farms

information aggregation and manipulation in an experimental market prediction markets are increasingly being considered as methods for gathering summarizing and aggregating diffuse information by governments and businesses alike critics worry that these markets are susceptible to price manipulation by agents who wish to distort decision making we study the effect of manipulators on an experimental market we find that manipulators are unable to distort price accuracy subjects without manipulation incentives compensate for the bias in offers from manipulators by setting a different threshold at which they are willing to accept trades

market mechanisms in online peer to peer lending online peer to peer lending p2p lending has emerged as an appealing new channel of financing in recent years a fundamental but largely unanswered question in this nascent industry is the choice of market mechanisms i e how the supply and demand of funds are matched and the terms price at which transactions will occur two of the most popular mechanisms are auctions where the crowd determines the price of the transaction through an auction process and posted prices where the platform determines the price while p2p lending platforms typically use one or the other there is little systematic research on the implications of such choices for market participants transaction outcomes and social welfare we address this question both theoretically and empirically we first develop a game theoretic model that yields empirically testable hypotheses taking into account the incentive of the platform we then test these hypotheses by exploiting a regime change from auctions to posted prices on one of the largest p2p lending platforms consistent with our hypotheses we find that under platform mandated posted prices loans are funded with higher probability but the preset interest rates are higher than borrowers starting interest rates and contract interest rates in auctions more important all else equal loans funded under posted prices are more likely to default thereby undermining lenders returns on investment and their surplus although platform mandated posted prices may be faster in originating loans auctions that rely on the crowd to discover prices are not necessarily inferior in terms of overall social welfare this paper was accepted by chris forman information systems

the multivariate flexible accelerator model its empirical restrictions and an application to u s manufacturing this paper derives an exhaustive set of restrictions implied by the multistock flexible accelerator specification of the adjustment cost model for the firm the flexible accelerator specification of the demand for capital and labor is estimated using u s manufacturing annual data for the 1947 1976 period the consistency of the data with the model is examined by testing the validity of the derived restrictions finally the conditions which permit aggregation over firms are determined and tested empirically the flexible accelerator specification has been popular in the empirical literature on interrelated investment and employment decisions see nadiri and rosen 38 coen and hickman 10 and schramm 40 more recent examples include sargent 39 berndt fuss and wavermann 4 berndt and morrison 6 and meese 34 under suitable assumptions the specification may be rationalized by the adjustment cost model of the firm eisner and strotz 13 lucas 30 mortensen 35 extends the work of lucas and derives some empirically testable restrictions of the accelerator specification that are implied by the adjustment cost framework the broad objective of this paper is to provide a more rigorous and comprehensive test of the adjustment cost model than is presently found in the literature this objective is achieved in three stages first we offer an alternative derivation of the mortensen restrictions and more importantly we prove theorem 1 that his restrictions are exhaustive i e we establish an integrability result for the flexible accelerator adjustment cost model second the flexible accelerator specification of the demand for capital and labor is estimated using total u s manufacturing annual data for the 1947 76 period it is assumed that firms minimize expected production costs subject to a technology which implies that capital and labor stocks are costly to adjust while a third factor materials is freely adjustable the consistency of the data with the adjustmentcost framework is examined by testing for the validity of the derived restrictions further we test the validity of some separability restrictions on the adjustmentcost technology that to varying degrees are imposed a priori in all of the cited empirical studies finally we provide a complete characterization of the individual firm technologies which justify the common assumption of the existence of a representative firm this problem of aggregation over firms which has been

dynamic effects of permanent and temporary tax policies in a q model of investment abstract this paper incorporates the tax policy analysis of hall and jorgenson into a dynamic optimizing model with adjustment costs to develop a q model of investment this framework is particularly useful for analyzing the dynamic effects on investment of permanent and temporary changes in tax policy it is shown that contrary to the conventional intertemporal substitution argument a temporary investment tax credit need not be nore expansionary than a permanent investment tax credit the role of depreciation allowances in determining the dynamic response of investment to temporary changes in the tax rate is also investigated

the renewable energy policy paradox abstract one major avenue for policymakers to meet climate targets is by decarbonizing the power sector one component of which is raising the share of renewable energy sources renewables in electricity generation however promoting renewables in liberalized power markets creates a paradox in that successful penetration of renewables could fall victim to its own success with the current market architecture future deployment of renewable energy will necessarily be more costly and less scalable moreover transition towards a full 100 renewable electricity sector is unattainable paradoxically in order for renewable technologies to continue growing their market share they need to co exist with fossil fuel technologies ignoring these findings can slow adoption and increase the costs of deploying new renewable technologies this paper spots the incompatibility between electricity liberalization and renewable policy regardless of the country location or renewable technologies the paradox holds as long as market clear prices with short term marginal costs and renewable technology s marginal cost is close to zero and not dispatchable

responsive feed in tariff adjustment to dynamic technology development abstract this paper reviews the adjustments of the feed in tariffs for new solar photovoltaic pv installations in germany as pv system prices declined rapidly since 2009 the german government implemented automatic mechanisms to adjust the remuneration level for new installations in response to deployment volumes this paper develops an analytic model to simulate weekly installations of pv systems of up to 30 kw based on project profitability and project duration the model accurately replicates observed market developments and is used to assess different adjustment mechanisms against multiple scenarios for pv system price developments the analysis shows that responsive feed in tariff schemes with frequent tariff adjustments and short qualifying periods reach deployment targets most effectively

modeling renewable energy company risk abstract the renewable energy sector is one of the fastest growing components of the energy industry and along with this increased demand for renewable energy there has been an increase in investing and financing activities the tradeoff between risk and return in the renewable energy sector is however precarious renewable energy companies are often among the riskiest types of companies to invest in and for this reason it is necessary to have a good understanding of the risk factors this paper uses a variable beta model to investigate the determinants of renewable energy company risk the empirical results show that company sales growth has a negative impact on company risk while oil price increases have a positive impact on company risk when oil price returns are positive and moderate increases in sales growth can offset the impact of oil price returns and this leads to lower systematic risk

investment age and dynamic productivity growth in the spanish food processing industry this article analyzes the relation between investment age measured as the number of years since investment spike and dynamic productivity growth and its components which include dynamic technical change dynamic inefficiency change and dynamic scale inefficiency change the empirical application focuses on firm level data for the spanish food processing industry covering the period from 1996 to 2011 this investigation of the impact of firms investment decisions on productivity growth employs a dynamic production framework and analyzes the impact of these decisions on the components of dynamic productivity growth our findings show that dynamic productivity growth is negatively affected by investment spikes in both the meat processing and oils and fats industries and that dynamic inefficiency change initially falls just after the infusion of large investment for oils and fats firms but then grows as the firms acquire experience with this investment we further find that investment spikes lead to improvements in dynamic technical change and worsening in dynamic technical inefficiency change in the meat processing industry while dynamic scale inefficiency change was negatively impacted in both industries

externalities in economies with imperfect information and incomplete markets this paper presents a simple general framework for analyzing externalities in economies with incomplete markets and imperfect infonnation by identifying the pecuniary effects of these externalities that net out the paper simplifies the problem of determining when tax interventions are pareto improving the approach indicates that such tax interventions almost always exist and that equilibria in situations of imperfect information are rarely constrained pareto optima it can also lead to simple tests based on readily observable indicators of the efficacy of particular tax policies in situations involving adverse selection signaling moral hazard incomplete contingent claims markets and queue rationing equilibria traditional discussions of externalities have emphasized the distinction between technological externalities in which the action of one individual or firm directly affects the utility or profit ofanother and pecuniary externalities in which one individual s or firm s actions affect another only through effects on prices while the presence of technological externalities imply in general that a competitive equilibrium may not be pareto efficient pecuniary externalities hy themselves are not a source of inefficiency the fact that prices change has of course important consequences there are both distributional and allocational effects but the distribution effects net out gains for example hy firms whose prices increase are precisely offset by losses e g to individuals who must pay higher prices and there are no welfare losses from the allocation effects as long as the price changes involved are small if firms are maximizing profits and individuals are maximizing utility both facing prices that correctly refiect opportunity costs then standard envelope theorem arguments imply that changes in profits or utility induced by changes in allocations resulting from any small change in prices are negligible

distance and private information in lending we study the effects of physical distance on the acquisition and use of private information in informationally opaque credit markets using a unique data set of all loan applications by small firms to a large bank we show that borrower proximity facilitates the collection of soft information leading to a trade off in the availability and pricing of credit which is more readily accessible to nearby firms albeit at higher interest rates ceteris paribus analyzing loan rates and firms decision to switch lenders provides further evidence for banks strategic use of private information however distance erodes our lender s ability to collect proprietary intelligence and to carve out local captive markets suggesting that the requisite soft information is primarily local the author 2010 published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies all rights reserved for permissions please e mail journals permissions oxfordjournals org oxford university press

the economics of changing course implications of adaptability and inertia for optimal climate policy this paper reviews evidence that energy technologies and systems adapt over time to accommodate external pressures that technical innovation and systemic change in the energy sector is largely induced by need and restrained by potentially large transitional costs a simple integrated model of optimal greenhouse gas abatement over time is presented in which the abatement cost depends on both fixed and transitional elements it is shown that the optimal current response and long run prospects differ radically between the classical economic case in which the cost of a given cutback in emissions is fixed exogenously and the adaptive case in which the response is ultimately adaptive but heavily constrained by inertia ie low fixed but high transitional cost if energy systems are indeed to a large degree adaptive the results demonstrate that as compared with the classical non adaptive case long run stabilization of atmospheric co2 may be optimal even with moderate damages from climate change greater near term abatement efforts are justified and the cost of a given delay in response may be several times higher neglect of the issue of induced technical change and other adaptive responses may invalidate the policy implications drawn from most integrated assessment models developed to date

assessing dynamic inefficiency of the spanish construction sector pre and post financial crisis this paper undertakes the full decomposition of dynamic cost inefficiency into technical scale and allocative inefficiency based on the dynamic directional distance function the empirical application estimates dynamic inefficiency in the spanish construction industry before and during the current financial crisis over the period 2001 2009 static inefficiency measures are biased in a context of a significant economic crisis with large investments and disinvestments as they do not account for costs in the adjustment of quasi fixed factors allocative inefficiency is smaller while technical inefficiency is larger when using the dynamic compared to the static framework results further indicate that overall dynamic cost inefficiency is very high with technical inefficiency being the largest component followed by allocative and scale inefficiency moreover overall dynamic cost inefficiency is significantly larger before the beginning of the financial crisis than during the financial crisis larger firms are less technically and scale inefficient than smaller firms on average but have more problems in choosing the mix of inputs that minimizes their long term costs firms that went bankrupt on average have a higher overall dynamic cost inefficiency and scale inefficiency than continuing firms

when bureaucrats meet entrepreneurs the design of effective public venture capital programmes recently public efforts to finance small high technology firms have proliferated we review the motivations for these efforts and make some preliminary observations about their design we explore the underlying challenges that the financing of young growth firms poses the ways that specialised financial intermediaries address them and the rationales for public efforts to finance these companies the final section makes a set of observations about the ways in which the structure of these efforts can most effectively complement private sector activity a frequent fault in programme design is the presumption that technological criteria can be divorced from business considerations when evaluating firms the federal government has played an active role in financing new firms particularly in high technology industries since the soviet union s launch of the sputnik satellite in recent years european and asian nations and many us states have adopted similar initiatives while these programmes precise structures have differed the efforts have been predicated on two shared assumptions i that the private sector provides insufficient capital to new firms and ii that the government either can identify investments which will ultimately yield high social and or private returns or can encourage financial intermediaries to do so in contrast to other government interventions designed to boost economic growth such as privatisation programmes these claims have received little scrutiny by economists the neglect of these questions is unfortunate while the sums of money involved are modest relative to public expenditures on defence procurement or retiree benefits these programmes are very substantial when compared to contemporaneous private investments in new firms government programmes in this arena have been divided between those efforts that directly fund entrepreneurial firms and those that encourage or subsidise the development of outside investors in this paper i will focus on public venture capital initiatives programmes that make equity or equity like investments in young firms or encourage other intermediaries to make such investments in some such programmes such as the advanced technology program and the small business innovation research programmes discussed below the funds are provided as a contract or outright grant while these efforts have proliferated a consensus as to how to structure these programmes remains elusive while the design of regulatory agencies has been extensively studied from a theoretical and empirical perspective little work has

the speed of information revelation in a financial market mechanism abstract the paper studies the rate at which dispersed private information about the value v of a risky financial asset is incorporated into prices in an information adjustment mechanism the mechanism in the presence of competitive market makers aggregates the information of risk averse agents at a rate of n 1 2 where n is the number of rounds of the adjustment process without market makers convergence of prices to v is much slower in any case the asymptotic precision of prices is negatively related to the degree of risk aversion and the amount of noise in the system journal of economic literature classification numbers d83 g14

accounting for slacks to measure dynamic inefficiency in data envelopment analysis abstract slacks that arise when nonparametrically constructing technologies are relevant because they can be an important source of technical inefficiency this paper extends the measurement of dynamic inefficiency in the full input output space in the adjustment cost theory framework to account for slacks in particular the paper develops the dynamic weighted additive model in data envelopment analysis dea and shows its main properties additionally the approach is illustrated by a real application the empirical application concerns data on large firms in the dairy manufacturing industry in the main dairy producing countries in the european union france germany italy spain poland and the czech republic from 2005 to 2012 the results show the differences in average dynamic inefficiency between the analyzed countries the findings also indicate that not surprisingly firms are on average closer to their own country frontier than the common frontier comprising all firms regardless of country greater inefficiency was also found on average in the new approach when related to the dynamic framework that does not account for slacks

the price of policy risk empirical insights from choice experiments with european photovoltaic project developers managing the transition to a renewable energy future is an important policy priority in many countries solar photovoltaic pv technology is expected to make an important contribution but due to relatively higher cost its growth to date has been largely driven by public policy notably feed in tariffs feed in tariffs have been implemented in various countries however with widely differing outcomes in terms of installed pv capacity previous research indicates that the level of policy risk may be an important driver for differences in renewable energy policy effectiveness more specifically we suggest that investors who take a decision between pv investment opportunities in different countries carefully weigh feed in tariff induced returns against a set of policy risks and choose the country with the most favorable risk return profile we empirically test this model based on a stated preference survey among european pv project developers consisting of 1575 choice decisions by 63 investors the findings of our study demonstrate that risk matters in pv policy design and that a price tag can be attached to specific policy risks such as the duration of administrative processes or uncertainty induced by an approaching capacity cap governments can build on our empirical results to design policies that will be effective in attracting private pv investment while at the same time maintaining efficiency by providing an adequate compensation for policy risk

small streams diverse sources who invests in renewable energy in finland during the financial downturn this article addresses the investment gap in renewable energy sources identified by several authors examining the case of a country finland which introduced policy measures to diversify its renewable energy portfolio we analyse the development of investments in renewable heat and power in response to new policy measures and contextual factors during the downturn period 2009 2013 we investigate investor heterogeneity i e the diversity of logics employed by different types of res investors in spite of a severe financial recession we find an emergence of new sources of investment among these new investor types we find diversity in investment drivers and available options these include investors mobilized by the feed in tariff to seek profitable targets and investors such as real estate owners investing in heat pumps for their own use and benefiting from low interest rates we find that the diversification of investors supports the diversification in res sources and brings in new investors undeterred by the financial downturn our findings imply that policy makers should recognize that the responses to distinct incentives and pressures vary by investor types this also means that a mix of policies is required to maximize the contribution of different sectors to filling the renewable energy investment gap

an economic analysis for the design of ipp contracts for grid connected renewable energy projects abstract in this paper we undertake an integrated financial economic stakeholder analysis of a grid connected onshore wind project that is owned and operated by an independent power producer ipp in santiago island cape verde this ipp project has received considerable positive publicity and has won many awards cape verde has a very good wind resource but it suffers from high transportation costs for petroleum fuels due to its location hence it would appear to be an ideal site for an ipp investment in a wind farm this analysis is conducted from the perspectives of the electric utility the country s economy the government and the private sector investor the key question is whether the design of the power purchase agreement ppa can simultaneously yield a high enough cash flow for the project to be bankable while at the same time yielding a positive net financial and economic present value to the electric utility and the country respectively the analysis shows that a negotiated ppa results in a negative outcome for the economy of cape verde in almost all circumstances in contrast the owners of the ipp are guaranteed under all circumstances a very substantial return on their investment

liquidity constraints and imperfect information in subprime lending ditions for precisely the population that is most likely to have a difficult time obtaining credit those with low incomes and poor credit histories these consumers who typically cannot qualify for regular bank loans comprise the so called subprime market because the company we study originates subprime loans its loan applications and transaction records provide an unusual win dow into the consumption and borrowing behavior of households that are rationed in primary credit markets moreover we track loan repayments allowing us to analyze the difficulties in lending to the subprime population we begin by documenting the importance of short term liquidity constraints for individuals in our sample we present two pieces of evidence both are based on purchasing behavior and indicate a high sensitivity to cash on hand first we document a dramatic degree of demand seasonality associated with tax rebates overall demand is almost 50 percent higher during tax rebate season than during other parts of the year this seasonal effect varies with household

which renewable energy policy is a venture capitalist s best friend empirical evidence from a survey of international cleantech investors governments around the world have adopted ambitious targets to increase the share of renewable energy and reduce greenhouse gas emissions they pursue a variety of policy approaches to achieve these targets it has been a popular theme for contributions in energy policy to investigate the effectiveness of such policies this article adds a new perspective to the debate namely looking at the policy preferences of private investors in innovative clean energy technology firms we surveyed 60 investment professionals from european and north american venture capital and private equity funds and asked them to assess the effectiveness of various policies in terms of stimulating their interest to invest in innovative clean energy technologies in addition to quantitative rankings we use qualitative interview data to capture additional information on why investors prefer some policies over others the combined analysis compensates for the inherent limitations of a quantitative ranking using generic policy types the results of this exploratory analysis demonstrate that all other things being equal investors in our sample perceived feed in tariffs to be the most effective renewable energy policy the overall preference for feed in tariffs is even more pronounced among investors based in europe and with higher exposure to clean energy

financing innovation evidence from rad grants abstract governments regularly subsidize new ventures to spur innovation this paper conducts the first large sample quasi experimental evaluation of r d subsidies i use data on ranked applicants

robust incentives and the design of a climate change governance regime in building a governance regime to address climate change should we prioritize the development of global institutions or national ones this paper focuses on two neglected characteristics to inform the governance problem the incentives for investment in low carbon energy technology and the influence of historical policy volatility examining a case study of an important low carbon energy technology wind power this study finds 1 policy volatility has been substantial 2 policy changes were uncorrelated across jurisdictions suggesting that 3 investors could have substantially reduced their exposure to the risk of policy volatility by operating globally while it also has downsides a poorly coordinated international policy regime has the advantage of reducing the risk associated with a global policy failure beyond this case study the importance of this positive effect depends on the probability of policy failures in each country the correlations among them and the probability of a global policy failure

performance of private higher education institutions in vietnam evidence using dea based bootstrap directional distance approach with quasi fixed inputs vietnam s higher education has witnessed substantial improvements since the implementation of the doi moi renovation policy one of the significant developments is the promotion of establishment

historical presidential betting markets this paper analyzes the large and often well organized markets for betting on u s presidential elections that operated between 1868 and 1940 four main points are addressed first we show that the market did a remarkable job forecasting elections in an era before scientific polling second the market was fairly efficient despite the limited information of participants and active attempts to manipulate the odds third we argue political betting markets disappeared largely because of the rise of scientific polls and the increasing availability of other forms of gambling finally we discuss lessons this experience provides for the present

carbon market risks and rewards firm perceptions of cdm investment decisions in brazil and india the carbon market experiences of brazil and india represent policy success stories under several criteria a careful evaluation however reveals challenges to market development that should be addressed in order to make the rollout of a post 2012 cdm more effective we conducted firm level interviews covering 82 cdm plants in the sugar and cement sectors in brazil and india focusing on how individual managers understood the potential benefits and risks of undertaking clean development mechanism cdm investments our results indicate that the cdm operates in a far more complex way in practice than that of simply adding a marginal increment to a project s internal rate of return our results indicate the following first although anticipated revenue played a central role in most managers decisions to pursue cdm investments there was no standard practice to account for financial benefits of cdm investments second some managers identified non financial reputational factors as their primary motivation for pursuing cdm projects and third under fluctuating regulatory regimes with real immediate costs and uncertain cdm revenue managers favored projects that often did not require carbon revenue to be viable the post 2012 cdm architecture can benefit from incorporating these insights and in particular reassess goals for strict additionality and mechanisms for achieving it

information revelation in a market with pairwise meetings the paper presents a simple pairwise meetings model of trade the new feature is that agents have asymmetric information about the true state of the world the focus is on the transmission of the information through the process of trade the qualitative question is to what extent is the information revealed to uninformed agents through the trading process when the market is in some sense frictionless in particular does the decentralized process give rise to full revelation results as derived by the literature on rational expectations for centralized and competitive environments in the context of the model of this paper it turns out that the information is not fully revealed to uninformed agents even when the market is in some sense approximately frictionless

law finance and the international mobility of corporate governance we introduce the topic of this special issue on the role of financial and legal institutions in international governance with a particular emphasis on a notion of international mobility of corporate governance our discussion places the special issue at the intersection of law finance and international business with a focus on the contexts of foreign investors and directors country level legal and regulatory institutions facilitate foreign ownership foreign directors raising external financial capital and international m a activity the interplay between the impact of foreign ownership and foreign directors on firm governance and performance depends on international differences in formal regulatory institutions in addition to legal conditions informal institutions such as political connections also shape the economic value of foreign ownership and foreign directors we highlight key papers in the literature provide an overview of the new papers in this special issue and offer suggestions for future research

liability management of financial intermediaries in a dynamic and uncertain perspective this paper examines the effect of rate uncertainty first for the loan rate alone next for both asset and liability rates on the liability funding decisions of a risk neutral intermediary in this model a la pindyck rates evolve according to stochastic processes convex adjustment costs arise from the dichotomy of existing core deposits and new savings balances and the intermediary s cash flow is embedded into capital market theory then we show that the stationary equilibrium obtains at the intersection of the locus of no change in deposit holdings with the isocline of zero change in savings balances loan rate uncertainty alone shifts the savings isocline outward when marginal adjustment costs are rising at an increasing rate but when asset and liability rates are uncertain their impact on the mean intermediation spread core deposit holdings and adjustment costs depends on whether they are correlated or not

information percolation in large markets we introduce a simple model of the percolation of information of common interest through a large market as agents encounter each other over time and reveal information to each other some of which they may have received earlier from other agents we are particularly interested in the evolution over time of the cross sectional distribution in the population of the posterior probability assignments of the various agents we provide a market example based on privately held auctions and obtain a relatively explicit solution for the cross sectional distribution of posterior beliefs at each time our results contribute to the literature on information transmission in markets hayek 1945 argues that markets allow information that is dispersed in a population to be revealed through prices grossman s 1981 notion of a rational expectations equilibrium formalizes this idea in a setting with price taking agents milgrom 1981 pesendorfer and swinkels 1997 and reny and perry 2006 provide strategic foundations for the rational expectations equilibrium concept in centralized markets a number of important markets however are decentralized these include over the counter markets and private auction markets wolinsky 1990 and blouin and serrano 2002 study information transmission in decentralized markets in contrast to these two papers equilibrium behavior in our market example leads to full revelation of information we happily acknowledge conversations with manuel amador frank kelly jeremy stein and pierre olivier weill and research assistance from sergey lobanov rubinstein and wolinsky 1985 and gale 1986a 1986b study decentralized markets without asymmetric information satterthwaite and shneyerov 2003 study decentralized market with private value asymmetric information amador and weill 2006 study a more abstract setting regarding transmission of common and private i nformation

mobilizing private finance for low carbon innovation a systematic review of barriers and solutions this paper analyses the field of innovation studies regarding barriers to low carbon innovation and consequences for finance investment and divestment and contributes to a more holistic understanding of the underlying mechanisms a combination of technological barriers combined with economic barriers institutional and political barriers contribute to sub optimal low carbon investment all along the innovation cycle policy makers need to take a systemic approach to enable the redirection of diverse private financial sources instruments range from cutting dirty r d subsidies and support for clean technology innovation and diffusion levelling the institutional playing field and making risks of high carbon and low carbon technologies transparent to providing a consistent but adaptive long term transition strategy this would allow financiers to gradually shift their investments away from high carbon mainstream markets and scale low carbon technology niche markets however financiers also need to sharpen their competencies with regard to new clean technologies and markets

private equity returns and disclosure around the world to obtain more funds from the institutional investors private equity pe fund managers may report inflated valuations of private investee companies that are not yet sold however such overvaluations may result in a reputational cost when those investments are realized using evidence from 39 countries we show that there are significant systematic biases in managers reporting of fund performance we find that these biases depend on the accounting and legal environment in a country and on proxies for the degree of information asymmetry between institutional investors and pe fund managers

gender gap in peer to peer lending evidence from china abstract this paper documents and analyzes the gender gap in the online credit market using data from renrendai a leading peer to peer lending platform in china we show that lending to female borrowers is associated with better loan performance including a lower probability of default a higher expected profit and a lower expected loss than for their male peers however despite the higher creditworthiness we don t find any measurable gender impact on funding success rate meaning that female borrowers have to compensate lenders by providing higher profitability to achieve a similar funding probability these evidences indicate the existence of a gender gap that discriminate against female borrowers further analysis implies that this gender gap is independent of the amount of information disclosed by borrowers

technical efficiency of kansas arable crop farms a local maximum likelihood approach this study uses local maximum likelihood lml methods recently proposed by kumbhakar et al 2007 to assess the technical efficiency of arable crop kansas farms lml techniques overcome the most relevant limitations associated to mainstream parametric stochastic and nonparametric frontier models lml allows deriving farm level frontier parameter estimates the relevance of using localized estimates is evidenced by the observed heterogeneity in production technologies technical efficiency scores derived from the lml approach 0 905 are higher than those of the dea model under crs 0 808 and sfa 0 804 and close to dea vrs 0 917 ratings deriving reliable information about farm efficiency performance is relevant to identify inefficient farms and define adequate policy and management strategies the use of refined methods has thus important implications

information percolation with equilibrium search dynamics we solve for the equilibrium dynamics of information sharing in a large population each agent is endowed with signals regarding the likely outcome of a random variable of common concern individuals choose the effort with which they search for others from whom they can gather additional information when two agents meet they share their information the information gathered is further shared at subsequent meetings and so on equilibria exist in which agents search maximally until they acquire sufficient information precision and then search minimally a tax whose proceeds are used to subsidize the costs of search improves information sharing and can in some cases increase welfare on the other hand endowing agents with public signals reduces information sharing and can in some cases decrease welfare

the failure of models that predict failure distance incentives and defaults statistical default models widely used to assess default risk fail to account for a change in the relations between different variables resulting from an underlying change in agent behavior we demonstrate this phenomenon using data on securitized subprime mortgages issued in the period 1997 2006 as the level of securitization increases lenders have an incentive to originate loans that rate high based on characteristics that are reported to investors even if other unreported variables imply a lower borrower quality consistent with this behavior we find that over time lenders set interest rates only on the basis of variables that are reported to investors ignoring other credit relevant information as a result among borrowers with similar reported characteristics over time the set that receives loans becomes worse along the unreported information dimension this change in lender behavior alters the data generating process by transforming the mapping from observables to loan defaults to illustrate this effect we show that the interest rate on a loan becomes a worse predictor of default as securitization increases moreover a statistical default model estimated in a low securitization period breaks down in a high securitization period in a systematic manner it underpredicts defaults among borrowers for whom soft information is more valuable regulations that rely on such models to assess default risk could therefore be undermined by the actions of market participants

a network analysis using metadata to investigate innovation in clean tech implications for energy policy abstract clean technology clean tech is a large and increasing sector research and development r d is the lifeline of the industry and innovation is fostered by a plethora of high tech start ups and small and medium sized enterprises smes any empirical based attempt to detect the pattern of technological innovation in the industry is challenging this paper proposes an investigation of innovation in clean tech using metadata provided by crunchbase metadata reveal information on markets products services and technologies driving innovation in the clean tech industry worldwide and for san francisco the leader in clean tech innovation with more than two hundred specialised companies a network analysis using metadata is the employed methodology and the main metrics of the resulting networks are discussed from an economic point of view the purpose of the paper is to understand specifically specializations and technological complementarities underlying innovative companies detect emerging industrial clusters at the global and local metropolitan level and finally suggest a way to realize whether observed start ups smes and clusters follow a technological path of complementary innovation and market opportunity or instead present a risk of lock in the discussion of the results of the network analysis shows interesting implications for energy policy particularly useful from an operational point of view