cost efficiency and electricity market structure a case study of oecd countries the oecd electricity sector has witnessed significant institutional restructuring over the past three decades as a consequence many power generation utilities now act as unregulated companies that technically compete to sell power on an open market this paper analyses the performance in term of cost efficiency for electricity generation in oecd power sector while accounting for the impact of electricity market structures we employ the short run cost function in which capital stock is treated as a quasi fixed factor input empirical models are developed for the cost function as a translog form and analysed using panel data of 25 countries during the period 1980 to 2009 we show that it is necessary to model latent country specific heterogeneity in addition to time varying inefficiency the estimated economies of scale are adjusted to take account of the importance of the quasi fixed capital input in determining cost behaviour and long run constant returns to scale are verified for the oecd generation sector the research findings suggest there is a significant impact of electricity market regulatory indicators on cost in particular public ownership and vertical integration are found to have significant and sizable increasing impacts on cost thereby indicating policy lessons on the desirable ways to implement structural electricity generation reforms

adjusting input output models for capacity utilization in service industries abstract the input output i o models assume the stability of economic ratios and regional multipliers over the evaluation period for manufacturing sectors constant multipliers within a short term period may present a reasonable picture of the real world production function tourism industry however is composed of a variety of services in which total output and factor inputs are strongly influenced by capacity utilization cu a conceptual model is proposed in this paper which purports that shifts in cu for perishable services will lead to economies of scale in inputs price changes in the final output capacity constraint on domestic supply and substitution between input factors especially between capital and labor these factors simultaneously modify i o ratios and multipliers traditional i o analysis which assumes constant economic ratios and multipliers will therefore lead to biases in tourism impact estimates especially to value added components as it does not reflect the changing costs of operation in response to shifting supply and demand

primal and dual capacity utilization an application to productivity measurement in the u s automobile industry capacity utilization measures have traditionally been constructed as indexes of actual as compared to potential output this potential or capacity output y can be represented within an economic model of the firm as the tangency between the short and long run average cost curves economic theoretical measures of capacity utilization cu can then be characterized as y y where y is the realized level of output these quantity or primal cu measures allow for economic interpretation they provide explicit inference as to how changes in exogenous variables affect cu additional information for analyzing deviations from capacity production can be obtained by assessing the dual cost of the gap in this article the definitions and representations of primal output and dual cost cu measures are formalized within a dynamic model of a monopolistic firm as an illustration of this approach to characterizing cu measures a model is estimated for the u s automobile industry 1959 1980 and primal and dual cu

macroeconomic uncertainty through the lens of professional forecasters abstractwe analyze the evolution of macroeconomic uncertainty in the united states based on the forecast errors of consensus survey forecasts of various economic indicators comprehensive information contained in the survey forecasts enables us to capture a real time measure of uncertainty surrounding subjective forecasts in a simple framework we jointly model and estimate macroeconomic common and indicator specific uncertainties of four indicators using a factor stochastic volatility model our macroeconomic uncertainty estimates have three major spikes has three major spikes aligned with the 1973 1975 1980 and 2007 2009 recessions while other recessions were characterized by increases in indicator specific uncertainties we also show that the selection of data vintages affects the estimates and relative size of jumps in estimated uncertainty series finally our macroeconomic uncertainty has a persistent negative impact on real economic activity rather than producing wait and see dynamics

measuring and assessing capacity utilization in the manufacturing sectors of nine oecd countries following a tradition established by cassels klein and hickman we employ the economic theory of cost and production and define economic capacity output as that output at which short and long run average total cost curves are tangent to one another capacity utilization cu rates are then computed as the ratio of actual to capacity output we implement this framework empirically by specifying and estimating a translog variable cost function for the manufacturing sectors of nine oecd countries we find that by the end of the historical sample the early 1980s pervasive and chronic excess capacity exists while the average cost consequence of excess capacity was relatively modest in the 1960s the burden increased considerably after opec i and after opec ii the premium was as large as 15 of average total costs we also find that electricity and fuel price increases had small impacts on capacity output relative to that from labor or capital finally we adjust conventional measures of multifactor productivity growth for changes in cu and find that the adjusted growth is larger after 1973 than that based on traditional procedures

the spillover of macroeconomic uncertainty between the u s and china abstract we investigate the spillover of macroeconomic uncertainty between the u s and china since 2002 following jurado et al 2015 we construct a monthly aggregate macroeconomic uncertainty index for china from 224 economic variables the structural vector autoregression model suggests a unidirectional spillover of macroeconomic uncertainty from the u s to china both u s and chinese uncertainty have negative effects on china s real economy but the impact of u s uncertainty is greater

uncertainty matters evidence from close elections abstract this paper uses a data rich environment to produce direct econometric estimates of macroeconomic and financial uncertainty for 11 advanced nations these indices exhibit significant independent variation from popular proxies and provide a refinement of the influential work of jurado et al 2015 that results in improved real time performance we use this new data in combination with narrative evidence to jointly identify macro uncertainty and financial shocks macro uncertainty shocks are identified with close elections and financial shocks with financial stress during financial crises we find that macro uncertainty shocks matter for the majority of countries and that the real effects of macro uncertainty shocks are generally larger conditioning on close elections these results are robust to controlling for news shocks and global uncertainty as well as a variety of shocks considered to be important drivers of the business cycle

long and short run non parametric cost frontier efficiency an application to spanish savings banks the utilisation rate of installed capacity is a popular concept in both the performance appraisal literature and in publications on industrial organisation however a common consensus has yet to be reached concerning the most appropriate way to measure the capacity utilisation of physical inputs and its final effect on company results on the one hand there are approaches that establish capacity utilisation with reference to the maximum level of production that can be achieved in contrast there are other approaches more strictly related to economic analysis of operating costs in this paper our main objective is to define an analytical process that uses non parametric frontier methodology to provide the distance between the total costs of a given unit and the short run frontier costs as a natural extension of this proposal it is possible to compute the short run inefficiency caused by a non optimal dimension of the fixed inputs we define this as capacityefficiency the proposed evaluation process is applied to spanish savings banks covering the period between 1986 and 1995 throughout the period analysed the greater part of cost inefficiency is due to capacity efficiency 2002 elsevier science b v all rights reserved

the evolving impact of global region specific and country specific uncertainty we develop a dynamic factor model with time varying parameters and stochastic volatility estimate it using a large panel of macroeconomic and financial data for 22 countries and decompose the vari

excess capacity and asymmetric information in developing country fisheries the malaysian purse seine fishery excess capacity poses a problem in many developing country fisheries these countries often pursue a development strategy aimed at expanding capacity under open access sustainable development however requires management principal agent issues from asymmetric information between the regulator and fishers which potentially form serious obstacles to fisheries management arise in the likely forms of management this article discusses principal agent issues and examines the principal agent moral hazard issue which is due to divorce of ownership and vessel operations the article also illustrates a method for estimating capacity when information is limited the peninsular malaysian purse seine fishery forms a case study

excess capacity as a barrier to entry an empirical appraisal this paper examines excess capacity barriers to entry and investment dynamics in a sample of thirty eight chemical product industries logit and log linear models of investment behavior are estimated and specific case examples are considered the results show that incumbents rarely built excess capacity pre emptively in an effort to deter entry in general entrants and incumbents exhibited similar investment behavior

international risk cycles abstract recent work in international finance suggests that exchange rate puzzles can be accounted for if 1 aggregate uncertainty is time varying and 2 countries have heterogeneous exposures to a world aggregate shock we embed these features in a standard two country real business cycle framework and calibrate the model to equity risk premia in low and high interest rates countries unlike traditional real business cycle models our model generates volatile exchange rates a large currency forward premium excess comovement of asset prices relative to quantities and an imperfect correlation between relative consumption growth and exchange rates our model implies however that high interest rate countries have smoother quantities equity returns and interest rates than low interest rate countries contrary to the data

cost structure and capacity utilisation in multi product industries an application to the basque trawl industry to empirically study production structure and the capacity level at which vessels are harvesting a short run translog cost function is estimated from the estimated parameters two capacity utilisation measures are calculated ray returns to scale and a dual capacity utilisation measure both capacity utilisation measures suggest that there is excess capacity in the basque trawler fleet these measures are also estimated annually and they indicate the same conclusion the basque trawler fleet can therefore gain from increased production levels

excess capacity and rationalisation in the west european synthetic fibre industry this paper examines the process of rationalisation in an international oligopoly confronted by persistent excess capacity and losses in particular it analyses the pattern of capacity reduction plant closures and product area withdrawals as the firms strove to restore their profitability it compares the actual pattern of rationalisation achieved between 1975 and 1981 with the predicted patterns of rationalisation based on theory both under a cartel with government intervention and in a competitive solution free from such intervention the paper is divided into four sections the first contains a brief outline of developments in the industry 1967 80 the second section examines the producer cartel and government intervention framework the third section is devoted to the development of a predicted competitive pattern of rationalisation finally the fourth section examines the actual pattern of rationalisation and compares this with both the cartel plus government intervention and the competitive pattern predictions

dynamic analysis of consumer response to marketing strategies this paper develops a methodology for modeling consumer response that integrates previous research in stochastic brand selection diffusion of innovation test market analysis and new product design the methodology makes it practical to extend brand selection models to include diffusion phenomena such as awareness trial and information flow purchase timing and brand selection are interdependent and both phenomena depend jointly on managerial controls such as advertising coupons price off promotion product positioning and consumer characteristics within this general structure we provide practical estimation procedures a least squares approximation to the maximum likelihood estimates to determine the parameters which link managerial controls to consumer response closed form solutions are derived for cumulative awareness cumulative trial penetration expected sales and purchases due to promotion all as a function of time we also provide simplified expressions for equilibrium t market share tradeoffs among complexity of the diffusion process number of managerial variables nonstationarity complexity of purchase timing consumer segmentation and sample size are made explicit so that the marketing scientist can customize his analyses to the managerial problems that he faces the effects of sample size data interval frequency and collinearity in the explanatory variables are investigated with simulations based on a five state consumer response process which depends on 8 10 marketing variables the paper closes with a brief description of the application and predictive test of a consumer response model based on the methodology

economies of scale in the korean district heating system a variable cost function approach this paper aims to investigate the cost efficiency of south korea s district heating dh system by using a variable cost function and cost share equation we employ a seemingly unrelated regression model with quarterly time series data from the korea district heating corporation kdhc a public utility that covers about 59 of the dh system market in south korea over the 1987 2011 period the explanatory variables are price of labor price of material capital cost and production level the results indicate that economies of scale are present and statistically significant thus expansion of its dh business would allow kdhc to obtain substantial economies of scale according to our forecasts vis a vis scale economies the kdhc will enjoy cost efficiency for some time yet to ensure a socially efficient supply of dh it is recommended that the kdhc expand its business proactively with regard to informing policy or regulations our empirical results could play a significant role in decision making processes

capacity utilization measures underlying economic theory and an alternative approach measures of industrial capacity utilization hereafter cu have been used extensively in helping to explain changes in the rate of investment labor productivity and inflation the cu measures have also been used to obtain indices of capital in use as distinct from capital stock in place a number of alternative measures of cu are periodically calculated and published the 1980 economic report of the president for example contains three series that by the federal reserve board the u s department of commerce bureau of economic analysis and the wharton school of finance other publicly available series are those prepared by mcgraw hill publishing company the u s department of commerce bureau of the census and rinfret boston associates inc although a host of cu measures is publicly available it is not at all clear how one should interpret changes over time in each measure or variations among them a principal reason underlying these interpretation problems is that the crucial link between underlying economic theory and the constructed measure of cu is weak one way in which this issue has manifested itself in the policy domain over the last five years has been with respect to the uncertain effects of dramatic increases in energy prices on capacity output and on cu each of the cu measures noted above is computed in such a way that explicitly ignores any role for energy prices yet several times during the last decade though growth to apparently high rates of cu had taken place investment and average labor productivity were much lower than expected and the rate of price increase much greater in brief during the last decade the explanatory power of alternative cu measures has dropped sharply some have conjectured that post opec energy price increases may have brought about major changes in the u s economy so that old quantitative relationships between measured cu and investment labor productivity and price inflation may have been altered substantially in order to assess effects of changes in pe on cu a re examination of the notion and measurement of cu is needed based on the framework of the economic theory of the firm that is the focus of this paper

monetary policy and the exchange rate the british monetary authorities began the decade with a commitment to a policy of decelerating monetary growth as the centrepiece of their economic strategy a policy of outright benign neglect towards the exchange rate was a stated accompaniment by the end of 1990the centrepiece of policy was adherence to the exchange rate mechanism of the ems albeit initially within the wider band option although the commitment to counter inflationary policy objectives and to a nominal anchor as a means of achieving these remained the same the anchor had been changed at the intermediate target level there had been a revolution

on the estimation of returns to scale using variable cost functions abstract this paper compares two methods of estimating returns to scale based on variable cost functions it shows specifically how the methods differ and indicates why it is important to select an appropriate method when drawing inferences about policy

measuring macroeconomic uncertainty a historical perspective abstract using 100 years of data we provide a new macroeconomic uncertainty proxy for the us and other 14 major industrial countries we show macroeconomic uncertainty experiences an overall declining pattern in the century and the influential political and economic events two world wars and major recessions are associated with a dramatic surge in macroeconomic uncertainty meanwhile a global common component plays an important role in driving uncertainty fluctuations across countries

on the measurement of capacity utilization capacity utilization is usually defined as the ratio of actual output to the output corresponding to 1 the minimum point on the short run average total cost curve and 2 the point of tangency between the long run average total cost and short run average total cost curves in practice however capacity utilization is often measured as the ratio of actual to the maximum potential output consistent with a given capital stock this paper demonstrates how to estimate the theoretical measures of capacity utilization and examines the correlation between three measures of capacity utilization and the mcgraw hill estimates of capacity utilization using data from a sample of u s privately owned electric utilities for 1961 83 copyright 1989 by blackwell publishing ltd

returns to scale from variable and total cost functions abstract estimates of the returns to scale from a variable cost function evaluated at the actual and optimal capital stocks and a total cost function are presented the estimates generally differ depending in part upon the output at which they are evaluated

excess capacity and entry some empirical evidence recent articles by spence i977 dixit i979 and schmalensee i98i have elaborated on wenders i97i1 proposition that excess capacity can act as a barrier to entry the intent of all of these treatments is to suggest that firms may rationally invest in excess capacity with the expectation that excess capacity will be seen by potential entrants either as a signal of aggressive intent or as a credible threat 2 when excess capacity does not lead to creation of a credible threat it may still act as a barrier to entry by shifting the risk return perceptions of potential entrants enough to divert the potential entrants investments into other industries 3 alternatively investment in excess capacity by incumbent firms may reduce the prospects of an active market for the used equipment of a defunct entrant and thereby help to convert fixed costs into sunk costs consequently raising entry barriers 4 this paper represents an exploratory effort to investigate empirically the prevalence and efficiency of excess capacity in deterring entry first a simple and traditional model of entry is presented this is followed by the description of the data used to explore the excess capacity investment concept a combined results and comments section follows the description of the data

the international effects of global financial uncertainty shocks abstract in this paper we study the impact of sudden rises in global financial uncertainty on small open economies to this end we extract a global factor from the realised volatilities of about 1000 risky asset returns from around the world we then analyse how shocks to this factor affect economic activity in 44 advanced and emerging small open economies by estimating local projections in a panel regression framework we find that shocks increasing global financial uncertainty have adverse consequences on output trade and unemployment while their impact on nominal variables is more heterogeneous across countries furthermore the effects are more severe in countries with a higher degree of trade or financial openness higher levels of vulnerabilities weaker institutions or during economic downturns

static efficiency decompositions and capacity utilisation integrating economic and technical capacity notions starting from existing static decompositions of overall economic efficiency on nonparametric production and cost frontiers this article proposes more comprehensive decompositions including several cost based notions of capacity utilization furthermore in case prices are lacking we develop additional decompositions of overall technical efficiency integrating a technical concept of capacity utilization these new efficiency decompositions provide a link between short and long run economic analysis and in empirical work avoid conflating inefficiency and differences in capacity utilization an empirical analysis using a monthly panel of chilean hydro electric power plants illustrates the potential of these decomposition proposals

capacity and capacity utilization in common pool resource industries excess capacity poses one of the most pressingproblems that arise when industries exploitcommon pool natural resources it entailsover investment in the capital stock andexcessive use of variable inputs and placesadditional exploitation pressures on theresource stocks confusion persists over theappropriate definition and measurement ofcapacity and capacity utilization for theseindustries but understanding capacity and itsmeasurement is necessary to properly design acapacity management program this paperaddresses these issues by overviewing theconceptual and theoretical bases for capacityand capacity utilization measurement identifying specific problems for common poolresources outlining alternative methodologiesfor their measurement and illustrating the useof these definitions and measurement methods ina fisheries case study

impacts of random noise and specification on estimates of capacity derived from data envelopment analysis abstract data envelopment analysis dea is widely used to estimate the efficiency of firms and has also been proposed as a tool to measure technical capacity and capacity utilization cu random variation in output data can lead to downward bias in dea estimates of efficiency and consequently upward bias in estimates of technical capacity this can be particularly problematic for industries such as agriculture aquaculture and fisheries where the production process is inherently stochastic due to environmental influences this research uses monte carlo simulations to investigate possible biases in dea estimates of technically efficient output and capacity output attributable to noisy data and investigates the impact of using a model specification that allows for variable returns to scale vrs we demonstrate a simple method of reducing noise induced bias when panel data is available we find that dea capacity estimates are highly sensitive to noise and model specification analogous conclusions can be drawn regarding dea estimates of average efficiency

international business cycles world region and country specific factors the paper investigates the common dynamic properties of business cycle fluctuations across countries regions and the world we employ a bayesian dynamic latent factor model to estimate common components in macroeconomic aggregates output consumption and investment in a 60 country sample covering seven regions of the world the results indicate that a common world factor is an important source of volatility for aggregates in most countries providing evidence for a world business cycle we find that region specific factors play only a minor role in explaining fluctuations in economic activity we also document similarities and differences across regions countries and aggregates jel f41 e32 c11 c32

an examination of consumer heterogeneity in a stochastic model of consumer purchase dynamics with explanatory variables abstract a stochastic model of brand choice and purchase incidence is proposed that relates marketing variables including advertising exposures to brand performance measures such as market share penetration and depth of repeat purchase dynamics over time the approach considers various aspects of consumer heterogeneity including individual differences in brand loyalty levels advertising exposures and purchase rates for a population of consumers a major focus of this study is on the evaluation of the impact of consumer heterogeneity in alternative models on the basis of single source scanner panel data for an actual market situation in particular we demonstrate the critical importance of considering heterogeneity over a consumer population as a means of enhancing descriptive and predictive model fit as well as for allowing the analysis of advertising media schedules

a multivariate polya model of brand choice and purchase incidence in this paper we develop an integrated stochastic model of purchase timing and brand selection which incorporates the influence of marketing mix variables seasonality and trend and also allows for various individual choice mechanisms our approach rests on the assumptions of a zero order choice process a poisson timing process and purchase rates following a multivariate gamma distribution over the population the scale parameters of which vary according to marketing activities and time the resulting model is a multivariate polya process and the distribution of brand choice probabilities turns out to be a generalized dirichlet distribution thus most currently used zero order models can be considered to be special cases of this approach furthermore we derive a number of market diagnostics which provide insights into market structure and demonstrate the model s use for marketing strategy simulation based on extensive testing of the underlying hypotheses we finally validate the model using empirical data and show that it fits the market in question

common and country specific economic uncertainty abstract we use a factor model with stochastic volatility to decompose the time varying variance of macroeconomic and financial variables into contributions from country specific uncertainty and uncertainty common to all countries we find that the common component plays an important role in driving the time varying volatility of nominal and financial variables the cross country co movement in volatility of real and financial variables has increased over time with the common component becoming more important over the last decade simulations from a two country dsge model featuring epstein zin preferences suggest that increased globalisation and trade openness may be the driving force behind the increased cross country correlation in volatility

does economic policy uncertainty in the u s influence stock markets in china and india time frequency evidence this paper uses continuous and discrete wavelet tools to evaluate the dynamic correlation and causality between the u s economic policy uncertainty epu and stock markets in china and india from

common drifting volatility in large bayesian vars the general pattern of estimated volatilities of macroeconomic and financial variables is often broadly similar we propose two models in which conditional volatilities feature comovement and study them using u s macroeconomic data the first model specifies the conditional volatilities as driven by a single common unobserved factor plus an idiosyncratic component we label this model bvar with general factor stochastic volatility bvar gfsv and we show that the loss in terms of marginal likelihood from assuming a common factor for volatility is moderate the second model which we label bvar with common stochastic volatility bvar csv is a special case of the bvar gfsv in which the idiosyncratic component is eliminated and the loadings to the factor are set to 1 for all the conditional volatilities such restrictions permit a convenient kronecker structure for the posterior variance of the var coefficients which in turn permits estimating the model even with large datasets while perhaps misspecifi

the changing transmission of uncertainty shocks in the u s this article investigates if the impact of uncertainty shocks on the u s economy has changed over time to this end we develop an extended factor augmented vector autoregression var model that simultaneously allows the estimation of a measure of uncertainty and its time varying impact on a range of variables we find that the impact of uncertainty shocks on real activity and financial variables has declined systematically over time in contrast the response of inflation and the short term interest rate to this shock has remained fairly stable simulations from a nonlinear dynamic stochastic general equilibrium dsge model suggest that these empirical results are consistent with an increase in the monetary authorities antiinflation stance and a flattening of the phillips curve supplementary materials for this article are available online

a dynamic it adoption model for the soho market pc generational decisions with technological expectations thesmall office home office soho professionals comprise the fastest growing segment in the labor force today typically being a one person business based at home soho owners mostly rely on office information technology to single handedly run their entire operation despite the segment s ostensibly growing dependence and influence on the information technology it industry still very little is known about the dynamics between soho and it products with the purpose of addressing this void we investigate the soho professionals adoption patterns of multigenerational it products accordingly we develop and empirically estimate an individual soho levelinitial andrepeat purchase logit model that captures the procurement patterns for successive generations of technological products namely the pc category specifically we find that soho professionals procurement choices are influenced by a number of salient dimensions i e income performance price interpurchase time network externalities furthermore some soho owners are found to have a preference for a future expected generation over a currently available one which is explained via their business dispositions i e technology orientation result orientation search orientation toward accepting technological incertitude

subsidies buybacks and sustainable fisheries abstract most fisheries subsidies which on a worldwide scale are immense are probably detrimental to resource conservation however payments used to buy out excess fishing capacity are often represented as useful subsidies on the grounds that overcapacity encourages overfishing and causes economic waste some commentators on the other hand assert that most buyback subsidies are ineffective because additional capacity tends to seep back into the fishery over time in this paper we take the latter argument further and demonstrate that buyback subsidies if they come to be anticipated by fishermen will generally have a negative effect on economic performance and resource conservation consequently buyback subsidies are perhaps over rated as a management tool

global economic divergence and portfolio capital flows to emerging markets this paper studies the role of global and regional variations in economic activity and policy in developed world in driving portfolio capital flows pcfs to emerging markets ems results suggest that pcfs to ems depend mainly on economic activity at the global level and monetary policy in america and asia positively on the former and negatively on the latters pcfs are procyclical with respect to global activity but countercyclical to regional activity in aggregate regional variations contribute more than global variations this implies that economic divergence in the developed world can have significant effects on ems via pcfs

reference effects of price and promotion on brand choice behavior when consumers are exposed to pricing and promotional activity by frequently purchased packaged goods they may develop expectations that are used as points of reference in evaluating future activi

multi output nonfrontier primal measures of capacity and capacity utilization this article implements an econometric approach for generating primal capacity output and utilization measures for fisheries in situations where regulatory environmental and resource conditions affect catch levels but are not independently identified in the data frontier based capacity models may interpret such impacts as production inefficiency however if such inefficiencies are unlikely to be eliminated the implied potential output increases may be unrealistic we develop a multi output multi input stochastic transformation function framework that permits various assumptions about how output composition may change when operating at full capacity we apply our model to catcher processor vessels in the alaskan pollock fishery

the sensitivity of productivity growth measures to alternative structural and behavioral assumptions an application to electric utilities 1951 1984 this article examines the sensitivity of three alternative multifactor productivity growth estimates for the electric utility industry during the 1951 1984 period the results indicate that multifactor productivity growth estimates are quite sensitive to the relaxation of various structural and behavioral assumptions first a benchmark measure is constructed along the lines suggested by solow 1957 this residual approach produces estimates that suggest a substantial decline in firm level productivity growth after the mid 1960s prior to obtaining the second and third estimates empirical tests of the structural and behavioral assumptions underlying a firm s operation are conducted first the structural assumption of constant returns to scale is rejected and the resulting long run scale adjusted multifactor productivity growth estimates are found to be consistently less than the residual estimates second the behavioral assumption of long run equilibrium is rejected comparing the long run scale ad

firm entry excess capacity and endogenous productivity abstract we show that sluggish firm entry causes productivity to vary endogenously in response to technology shocks the endogenous productivity effect is caused by incumbent firms utilizing excess capacity as entry adjusts we develop a nonparametric model of endogenous sunk costs and monopolistic competition to show that imperfect competition and dynamic entry are necessary and jointly sufficient conditions for endogenous productivity fluctuations quantitatively we show the endogenous productivity effect is as large as that from a traditional capital utilization effect

decomposing capacity utilization in data envelopment analysis an application to banks in india abstract this paper briefly reviews the existing methods of capacity utilization in nonparametric framework from economic perspectives and then suggests an alternative in the light of limitations therein in the spirit of work by coelli et al coelli t j grifell tatje e perelman s 2002 capacity utilisation and profitability a decomposition of short run profit efficiency international journal of production economics 79 261 278 we propose two methods radial and non radial to decompose the input based physical technological capacity utilization into various meaningful components viz technical inefficiency ray economic capacity utilization and optimal capacity idleness a case study of indian banking industry is taken as an example to illustrate the potential application of these two methods of decomposition our two broad empirical findings are that first competition created after financial sector reforms generates high efficiency growth and reduces excess capacity second the cost gap of the short run cost from the actual cost is higher for the nationalized banks over the private banks indicating that the former banks though old do not reflect their learning experience in their cost minimizing behavior

does uncertainty affect real activity evidence from state level data abstract we use variation in the effect of us wide or global uncertainty on state level uncertainty to identify the impact of this shock on real activity we find that increases in uncertainty do have an adverse impact on real income employment and unemployment thus uncertainty shocks can be a source of economic fluctuations

assessing international commonality in macroeconomic uncertainty and its effects this paper uses a large vector autoregression var to measure international macroeconomic uncertainty and its effects on major economies using two datasets one with gdp growth rates for 19 industrialized countries and the other with a larger set of macroeconomic indicators for the u s euro area and u k using basic factor model diagnostics we first provide evidence of significant commonality in international macroeconomic volatility with one common factor accounting for strong comovement across economies and variables we then turn to measuring uncertainty and its effects with a large var in which the error volatilities evolve over time according to a factor structure the volatility of each variable in the system reflects time varying common global components and idiosyncratic components in this model global uncertainty is allowed to contemporaneously affect the macroeconomies of the included nations both the levels and volatilities of the included variables in this setup uncertainty and its effects are estimated in a single step within the same model our estimates yield new measures of international macroeconomic uncertainty and indicate that uncertainty shocks surprise increases lower gdp and many of its components adversely affect labor market conditions lower stock prices and in some economies lead to an easing of monetary policy

the international transmission of volatility shocks an empirical analysis this paper proposes an empirical model which can be used to estimate the international transmission of volatility shocks using this model we estimate that a one standard deviation increase in the volatility of the shock to us real gdp leads to a decline in uk gdp of 1 relative to trend and a 0 7 increase in uk cpi relative to trend at the two year horizon using a nonlinear open economy dsge model we find that these empirical estimates are consistent with the response to a perturbation to the volatility of foreign supply type shocks while an increase in the volatility of demand shocks has a negligible impact

fragility and the effect of international uncertainty shocks abstract when economic systems are fragile even modest shocks for example a shock to international capital movements can have strong negative effects on key macroeconomic fundamentals this paper proposes a large scale bayesian vector autoregression with factor stochastic volatility to investigate the macroeconomic consequences of international uncertainty shocks in g7 countries and shows that uncertainty increases fragility the factor structure enables us to identify an international uncertainty shock by assuming that it is the joint volatility process that determines the dynamics of the variance covariance matrix of the common factors to allow for first and second moment shocks we moreover assume that the uncertainty factor enters the var equation as an additional regressor our findings suggest that an international uncertainty shock has negative effects across all economies and variables under consideration leading to strong declines in output prices exports interest rates and equity prices the precise degree of fragility varies across countries a simple correlation exercise suggests that structural differences may be partially responsible for the observed differences

catch limits capacity utilization and cost reduction in japanese fishery management japan s fishery harvest peaked in the late 1980s to limit the race for fish each fisherman could be provided with specific catch limits in the form of individual transferable quotas itqs the market for itqs would also help remove the most inefficient fishers in this article we estimate the potential cost reduction associated with catch limits and find that about 300 billion yen or about 3 billion dollars could be saved through the allocation and trading of individual specific catch shares

impact of global uncertainty on the global economy and large developed and developing economies global uncertainty shocks are associated with a sharp decline in global inflation growth and interest rate global uncertainty shocks have more protracted statistically significant and substantia

regulation capital vintage and technical change in the electric utility industry this paper presents estimates of the rate of technical change in the electric power industry over the period 1951 78 the estimated model directly incorporates the effects of rate of return regulation and uses both a time trend and a vintage index to represent disembodied and embodied technical change respectively the results indicate that disembodied technical change was the primary source of cost reduction during 1951 70 and that tighter regulation as represented by a one point reduction in the rate of return would have reduced the rate of technical change by an average of 1 2 during 1951 78 34 references 18 footnotes 3 tables

capacity utilization and its determinants for a container shipping line theory and evidence under utilization of fleet capacity appears to be a long lasting issue in the container shipping industry also there are some difficulties unsolved while measuring the ratio of capacity utilization cu of a container shipping line from the perspective of an engineering approach the slots capacity installed is the most popular way to represent the capacity output since the slots capacity installed lacks theoretical support this study adopts an economics model to find the capacity output of a shipping line further the derived cu ratio identifies the realized utilization of fleet capacity for a shipping line focused on the three largest container shipping lines in taiwan this article shows that their fleet capacity are totally under utilized and the movement patterns of cu ratios are approximately identical in addition the variations of cu ratios also suggest that the enactment of ocean shipping reform act has contributed a positive effect on the capacity utilization of a container shipping line