the environmental kuznets curve and flow versus stock pollution the neglect of future damages in this paper we offer a possible explanation for the empirical finding that the pollution income relationship pir for flow pollutants is an environmental kuznets curve ekc i e inverted u shaped but that the pir for stock pollutants is monotonically rising we analyse an overlapping generations model with two pollutants the flow pollutant causes immediate damages but the stock pollutant harms the environment only in the future hence a succession of myopic governments lets stock pollution grow with income in contrast the flow pollutant follows an ekc whose downturn might be caused by the neglect of future damages and by ever rising stock pollution without the stock pollutant the pir for the flow pollutant can increase monotonically we also show that the turning point of the ekc for the flow pollutant lies at lower levels of income and of flow pollution if stock pollution is high and harmful this casts doubts on most empirical ekc studies because they assume that the turning point occurs at the same income level in all countries however it is consistent with recent empirical findings that the income level at the turning point of the ekc varies across countries

identifying the effects of a lender of last resort on financial markets lessons from the founding of the fed abstract we use the founding of the federal reserve to identify the effects of a lender of last resort we examine stock return and interest rate volatility during september and october when markets were vulnerable because of financial stringency from the harvest stock volatility fell by 40 and interest rate volatility by more than 70 following the monetary regime change the drop is insignificant if major panic years are omitted from the analysis however because business cycle downturns occurred in the same year as financial crises our results suggest that the existence of the federal reserve reduced liquidity risk

is trade good or bad for the environment sorting out the causality we seek to contribute to the debate over globalization and the environment by asking what is the effect of trade on a country s environment for a given level of gdp we take specific account of the endogeneity of trade using exogenous geographic determinants of trade as instrumental variables we find that trade tends to reduce three measures of air pollution statistical significance is high for concentrations of so2 moderate for no2 and lacking for particulate matter although results for other environmental measures are not as encouraging there is little evidence that trade has a detrimental effect on the environment

do state borders matter for u s intranational trade the role of history and internal migration empirical evidence of the impact of borders on international trade flows using the gravity equation approach abounds this paper examines the empirical relevance of state borders in u s interstate trade for various specifications of the gravity equation we find a large and economically significant subnational border effect for some specifications however two model specifications drastically reduce if not eliminate the border effect i dynamic panel specifications controlling for past levels of trade and ii models conditioning on internal migration les resultats empiriques de l analyse des impacts des frontieres sur les flux de commerce international en utilisant les modeles de gravite sont devenus monnaie courante ce texte examine l impact des frontieres entre etats a l aide de cette technique il s avere que les effets de frontieres infranationales sont grands et significatifs pour certaines specifications du modele cependant deux specifications du modele reduisent dramatiquement s ils n eliminent pas l effet de frontiere i des specifications qui prennent en compte les niveaux anterieurs de commerce et ii des specifications qui dependent de la migration interne

robust inference concerning recent trends in us environmental quality understanding trends in environmental quality is important for individuals and policymakers typically trends in environmental quality are determined solely through comparisons of unconditional or conditional mean pollution levels however reaching unambiguous conclusions on the basis of only the first moment of the unconditional or conditional distribution is problematic since it ignores what is occurring in different regions of the distribution even relying on indices that incorporate both mean and variance is suspect to the extent that relative rankings are not typically robust to index choice addressing these concerns we adapt recent developments in the stochastic dominance literature to test for unambiguous relations between current and past distributions of toxic releases using epa data from 1988 1999 we find statistically significant evidence that the unconditional 1999 distributions of air land underground and total toxic releases dominate in a first degree sense their respective 1988 distributions while some of this improvement is explained by economic growth pollution net of income improved over the sample period as well finally we document robust differences in the distribution of pollution across regions in the us copyright 2004 john wiley sons ltd

fundamentals panics and bank distress during the depression we assemble bank level and other data for fed member banks to model determinants of bank failure fundamentals explain bank failure risk well the first two friedman schwartz crises are not associated with positive unexplained residual failure risk or increased importance of bank illiquidity for forecasting failure the third friedman schwartz crisis is more ambiguous but increased residual failure risk is small in the aggregate the final crisis early 1933 saw a large unexplained increase in bank failure risk local contagion and illiquidity may have played a role in pre 1933 bank failures even though those effects were not large in their aggregate impact

reexamining the empirical evidence for an environmental kuznets curve this paper uses an updated and revised panel data set on ambient air pollution in cities worldwide to examine the robustness of the evidence for the existence of an inverted u shaped relationship between national income and pollution we test the sensitivity of the pollution income relationship to functional forms to additional covariates and to changes in the nations cities and years sampled we find that the results are highly sensitive to these changes and conclude that there is little empirical support for an inverted u shaped relationship between several important air pollutants and national income in these data

exiting behavior under tiebout conditions towards a predictive model the paper briefly reviews recent research that adapts and extends the tiebout model of residential choice paying special attention to those studies which utilize hirschman s exit voice and loyalty model the paper argues that these are theoretically and empirically flawed since they do not take account of tiebout rational intra jurisdictional moves but concentrate upon potential exiting behavior the article then tests the importance of the inter intra jurisdictional distinction using a logit model of factors using data from the 1990 economic and social research council mobility study ecsrcms of london finding weak results from this analysis the article then offers a more powerful test of factors predicting a move to jurisdictions with preferable tax rates

toward a new conception of the environment competitiveness relationship accepting a fixed trade off between environmental regulation and competitiveness unnecessarily raises costs and slows down environmental progress studies finding high environmental compliance costs have traditionally focused on static cost impacts ignoring any offsetting productivity benefits from innovation they typically overestimated compliance costs neglected innovation offsets and disregarded the affected industry s initial competitiveness rather than simply adding to cost properly crafted environmental standards can trigger innovation offsets allowing companies to improve their resource productivity shifting the debate from pollution control to pollution prevention was a step forward it is now necessary to make the next step and focus on resource productivity

the adjustment of expectations to a change in regime a study of the founding of the federal reserve the founding of the federal reserve system in 1914 led to a substantial change in the behavior of nominal interest rates the authors examine the timing of this change and the speed with which it was effected they then use data on the term structure of interest rates to determine how expectations responded their results indicate that the change in policy regime was rapid and that individuals quickly understood the new environment they were facing copyright 1987 by american economic association

liquidity risk bank networks and the value of joining the federal reserve system reducing systemic liquidity risk related to seasonal swings in loan demand was one reason for the founding of the federal reserve system existing evidence on the post federal reserve increase in the seasonal volatility of aggregate lending and the decrease in seasonal interest rate swings suggests that it succeeded in that mission nevertheless less than 8 percent of state chartered banks joined the federal reserve in its first decade some have speculated that nonmembers could avoid higher costs of the federal reserve s reserve requirements while still obtaining access indirectly to the federal reserve discount window through contacts with federal reserve members we find that individual bank attributes related to the extent of banks ability to mitigate seasonal loan demand variation predict banks decisions to join the federal reserve consistent with the notion that banks could obtain indirect access to the discount window through interbank transfers we find that a bank s position within the interbank network as a user or provider of liquidity predicts the timing of its entry into the federal reserve system and the effect of federal reserve membership on its lending behavior we also find that indirect access to the federal reserve was not as good as direct access federal reserve member banks saw a greater increase in lending than nonmember banks

the trade creating effects of business and social networks evidence from france using theory grounded estimations of trade flow equations this paper investigates the role that business and social networks play in shaping trade between french regions the bilateral intensity of networks is quantified using the financial structure and location of french firms and bilateral stocks of migrants compared to a situation without networks migrants are shown to double bilateral trade flows while networks of firms multiply trade flows by as much as four in some specifications finally taking network effects into account divides the estimation of the impact of transport costs and of the effect of administrative borders by around three

monetary intervention mitigated banking panics during the great depression quasi experimental evidence from a federal reserve district border 1929 1933 the federal reserve act divided mississippi between the 6th atlanta and 8th st louis districts during the great depression these districts policies differed atlanta championed monetary activism and the extension of aid to ailing banks st louis eschewed expansionary initiatives during a banking crisis in 1930 atlanta expedited lending to banks in need st louis did not outcomes differed across districts in atlanta banks survived at higher rates lending continued at higher levels commerce contracted less and recovery began earlier these patterns indicate that central bank intervention influenced bank health credit availability and business activity

the central banking role of clearinghouse associations most of this clearinghouse currency was illegal but no one thought of prosecuting or interfering with its issuers as practically all of it bore the words payable only through the clearing house its holders could not demand payment for it in cash in plain language it was an inconvertible paper money issued without the sanction of law yet necessitated by conditions for which our banking laws did not provide when banks were being run upon and legal money had disappeared in hoards in default of any legal means of relief it worked effectively and doubtlessly prevented multitudes of bankruptcies which otherwise would have occurred andrew 1908b p 516

identification weak instruments and statistical inference in econometrics we discuss statistical inference problems associated with identification and testability in econometrics we consider inference in non parametric models and weakly identified structural models weak instruments we point out that many ill defined statistical problems such as non testable hypotheses occur in these areas and are typically associated with asymptotic approximations in non parametric models such problems include testing moments and inference under heteroscedasticity or serial dependence of unknown form for weakly identified structural models difficulties are typically associated with improper pivots and we review recent developments aimed at proposing more reliable procedures including alternative proposed statistics bounds projection split sampling conditioning monte carlo tests jel classification c1 c12 c14 c15 c3 c5 identification instruments faibles et inference statistique en econometrie nous analysons les problemes d inference associes a l identification et a la testabilite en econometrie nous considerons l inference dans les modeles non parametriques et les modeles structurels faiblement identifies instruments faibles nous remarquons que beaucoup de problemes mal poses tels que des hypotheses non testables apparaissent dans ces domaines et que ceux ci sont typiquement associes a l emploi d approximations asymptotiques dans les modeles non parametriques de tels problemes incluent les tests sur les moments et l inference sous heteroscedasticite ou dependance serielle de forme non specifiee dans les modeles structurels faiblement identifies ces difficultes sont habituellement associees a l emploi de fonctions pivotales impropres et nous presentons un survol des methodes recentes ayant pour objectif d obtenir des procedures plus fiables ce qui comprend les differentes statistiques proposees l emploi de bornes la subdivision d echantillon les techniques de projection le conditionnement et les tests de monte carlo

public and private capital productivity puzzle a nonparametric approach is public expenditure productive is there a shortfall or excess in public capital investment we address these old issues in the light of new econometric tools it is argued that the cobb douglas specification that ignores nonlinearity inherent in the functional relationship of the production technology causes incorrect estimates of input elasticities to avoid possible model misspecification we use li racine generalized kernel estimation this procedure is used to estimate the returns to private capital employment and public capital in gross state product from a panel of 48 states for 17 years in contrast to previous studies we find that the return to public capital is positive and significantly different from zero

the environmental consequences of trade evidence from subnational trade flows abstract the debate over the environmental consequences of free trade is not only quite heated but also entails significant policy ramifications recently cross sectional analysis at the country level has made use of exogenous determinants of trade to identify the causal effect of trade on the environment finding moderate evidence of a beneficial impact of expanded trade on environmental quality given the stakes involved we revisit this finding using subnational data on trade flows across us states and several measures of pollution not only does the analysis shed further light on the debate at the international level but also addresses a heretofore unexamined question does greater inter regional commerce at the subnational level harm the environment our findings are striking providing further evidence against a negative environmental impact of trade for the majority of measures analyzed however several sources of heterogeneity arise that are noteworthy

public sector performance move or monitor governmental performance is a concern of citizens and politicians alike a specific interest is public sector waste which is thought to be pervasive and efforts to improve public sector performance are believed to be minimal economists have studied the topic extensively this paper discusses options on measuring public sector performance in urban areas and it also suggests certain public policy options that i believe deserve additional attention from a citizen s point of view when public service performance declines one can leave the jurisdiction this exit option has a substantial historical precedent in the united states going back to at least the landing of the mayflower in the urban public finance literature this is a consequence of the tiebout 1956 model in which there are a sufficient number of jurisdictions among which individuals may choose to live and people vote with their feet the model suggests that exit or the threat of exit leads to competitive forces that improve efficiency in the public sector an alternative to exit comes about through monitoring and voting monitoring and voting are attractive ways to effect change for individuals who do not want to exit as suggested by davis and hayes 1993 a fairly simple model can demonstrate the demand for good government there is a literature that examines the motives for exit dowding and john 1996 which points out and concludes that people may not move in response to the fiscal decisions of local governments perhaps voting and monitoring are more attractive options at least to a proportion of the population 2 this paper explores the move monitor trade off in influencing urban public sector performance although heuristic arguments can be made concerning the relative importance of moving or monitoring few researchers have investigated when if ever move and or monitor are effective means of improving public sector efficiency in this paper i would like to suggest that there are gaps in the literature proposing topics or future research

establishing the micro foundations of a macro theory information movers and the competitive local market for public goods e tiebout model of competition in the local market for public goods is an important and controversial theory the current debate revolves around the apparent disparity between macro 5 x empirical studies that show greater efficiency in the supply of public goods in polycentric regions compared to consolidated ones and micro evidence of widespread citizen consumer ignorance which has been used to argue that individual actions cannot plausibly lead to efficiency enhancing competition between local governments we argue that competitive markets can be driven by a subset of informed consumers who shop around between alternate suppliers and produce pressure for competitive outcomes from which all consumers benefit using data from a survey of overfive hundred households we analyze the role of these marginal citizen consumers and incorporate the costs of information gathering and the strategic interests of local governments into the competitive market model

the tiebout hypothesis in the united states an analysis of black consumer voters 1970 75 this study provides a preliminary empirical investigation as to whether black consumer voters were attracted by the prospect of higher afdc benefits as they made interstate migration decisions over the 1970 75 time period unlike most previous studies there was no compelling evidence of such a attraction of course this study is only preliminary and one could easily make an argument that there are omitted variables from the estimating equations

arresting banking panics federal reserve liquidity provision and the forgotten panic of 1929 scholars differ on whether central bank intervention mitigates banking panics in april 1929 a fruit fly infestation in florida forced the u s government to quarantine fruit shipments from the state and destroy infested groves in july depositors panicked in tampa and surrounding cities the federal reserve bank of atlanta rushed currency to member banks beset by runs we show that this intervention arrested the panic and estimate that bank failures would have been twice as high without the federal reserve s intervention our results suggest that similar interventions may have reduced bank failures during the great depression

welfare policies and migration of the poor in the united states an empirical note this paper has investigated the impact of geographic welfare benefit differentials upon migration in the united states unlike other related studies which typically focus upon black migration as a surrogate measure of migration of the poor the present study focuses directly upon migration of the poor per se a variety of reduced form estimates are provided the evidence strongly suggests that the net in migration of the poor is positively and significantly influenced by higher nominal afdc levels and by higher real afdc levels these findings support the welfare magnet hypothesis which alleges that relatively high welfare levels act to attract poor migrants moreover given that poor migrants are attracted non only by high nominal welfare levels but also by high real welfare levels an argument can be made for establishing geographically uniform real welfare benefit levels in the united states this uniformity presumably should act over the long run to eliminate the human resource distortions being caused by the currently prevailing welfare system

financial panics the seasonality of the nominal interest rate and the founding of the fed after the founding of the fed in 1914 the frequency of financial panics and the size of the seasonal movements in nominal interest ratesboth declined substantially this paper establishes that the fed by carrying out the seasonal open market policy that eliminated the seasonal in nominal interest rates caused the decrease in the frequency of panics since seasonal movements are anticipated and financial panics are probably real events the results show that an anticipated monetary policy had real effects on the economy copyright 1986 by american economic association

intra national home bias some explanations wolf demonstrates that trade within the united states appears substantially impeded by state borders we revisit this finding with improved data we show that much intranational home bias can be explained by wholesaling activity shipments by wholesalers are much more localized within states than shipments from manufacturing establishments controlling for relative prices and the use of actual rather than imputed shipment distances also reduces home bias estimates

banking on the boom tripped by the bust banks and the world war i agricultural price shock bank lending booms and asset price booms are often intertwined although a fundamental shock might trigger an asset boom aggressive lending can push asset prices higher leading to more lending and so on such a dynamic seems to have characterized the agricultural land boom surrounding world war i this paper examines i how banks responded to the asset price boom and how they were affected by the bust ii how various banking regulations and policies influenced those effects and iii how bank lending contributed to rising farm land values in the boom and how bank closures contributed to falling prices in the bust we find that rising crop prices encouraged bank entry and balance sheet expansion in agriculture counties state deposit insurance systems amplified the impact of rising crop prices on the size and risk of bank portfolios while higher minimum capital requirements dampened the effects further increases in county farm land values and mortgage debt were correlated with the number of local banks ex ante and increases in bank loans during the boom when farm land prices collapsed banks that had responded most aggressively to the asset boom had a higher probability of closing while counties with more bank closures experienced larger declines in land prices than can be explained by falling crop prices alone