labour tax reform employment and intergenerational distribution a simulation model of an open economy with a unionized labour market is set up to analyze the effects of a labour tax reform which combines cuts in marginal tax rates with measures to broaden the tax base we find that such a reform will be contractionary and welfare reducing if unions set wage rates with the purpose of maximizing the after tax income of their members by contrast if unions also allow for the disutility of work of their members the reform will stimulate employment increase the welfare of all generations and redistribute welfare in favour of future generations

distinguishing between whole farm vs partial farm participation in the conservation reserve program by distinguishing between the decision to participate in the conservation reserve program crp and the decision for whole farm vs part farm participation we model participation as separate binary decisions our results suggest the farm characteristics and other factors affect the decision to participate in crp differently than the decision regarding whole farm vs part farm participation this model formulation also helps to clarify the conditions under which the effect of crp payments on the acreage enrolled in the program is positive or negative

inflation and social consensus in the seventies it is widely believed that the two oil price shocks of the i 970s played a major role in the increase in inflation in industrial countries while this hypothesis is consistent with the timing of changes in inflation at the global level it seems to break down when applied to individual countries cross sectionally for example over the period i973 9 switzerland had an average inflation rate of 4 7 while in neighbouring italy inflation averaged i5 6 over the same period furthermore inflation in the pre opec period i97i 2 was actually higher in switzerland than in italy it seems that a supply shock explanation of inflation in the seventies also requires an explanation of why different countries responded so differently to a similar set of shocks at the world level the purpose of this paper is to offer such an explanation and to test the hypothesis with a cross sectional equation accounting for differences in average inflation rates over the period i973 9 in eighteen oecd countries this time period includes the year of the first opec shock i 973 and the following six years up to the time of the second opec shock the hypothesis to be tested is set in the framework of a model similar to that of brunner et al i 980 the key features of the brunner model are that the adjustment of real wage expectations is subject to lags and that labour supply is positively related to the difference between the perceived real wage and the expected or target real wage given these two assumptions a negative supply shock gives rise to a period of stagflation whose intensity will be greater the slower is the speed of adjustment of real wage expectations the model of this paper extends the brunner model in three ways first across countries the speed of adjustment of real wage expectations or targets is assumed to depend positively on the degree of social consensus as proxied negatively by an indicator of average long run strike activity second the model allows for the possibility of inflation inertia or systematically incorrect inflation expectations as well as a sluggish adjustment of real wage expectations third the model incorporates the hypothesis that money supply growth will vary across countries according to variations in inflationary pressures as perceived by governments the first section of the paper provides a discussion of the rationale for the key proposition regarding strikes and social consensus as well as a brief discussion of the role of wage bargaining institutions section ii develops a theoretical model which yields a reduced form cross sectional equation relating the average i 973 9

incentive compatible pollution control policies under asymmetric information on both risk preferences and technology this article proposes a method to accommodate asymmetric information on farmers risk preferences in designing voluntary environmental policies by incorporating stochastic efficiency rules in a mechanism design problem the government can find incentive compatible policies by knowing only the general class of risk preferences among farmers the model also accounts for hidden information on technology types and input use the method is applied empirically to simulate a pollution control program in new york results suggest that participation incentives would be inadequate for many risk averse producers if the government does not account for the diversity in risk preferences

a small linear model of wage and price inflation in the norwegian economy summary this paper presents a model of inflation in a small open economy which features both wage wage linkages and a wage price spiral hence we have a simultaneous structure which contains the conventional scandinavian model of inflation as a special case full system estimation results are reported great emphasis is placed on data coherency and on parameter stability one interesting finding is that both wage growth and the wage level in the exposed e sector are strongly influenced by the outside wage this contradicts the predictions of the scandinavian model which defines the wage leading role of the e sector by the absence of outside wage effects in e sector wage formation another result is that the speed of adjustment to exogenous shocks is greater for prices than for wages this finding may be important in explaining real wage flexibility which is often seen as the hallmark of low unemployment economies such as the norwegian

the economics of worldwide stagflation the last fifteen years have witnessed dramatic changes in economics not only in the manner in which the economics profession views economics but also in the manner in which the general public views economics and economists by the late 1960 s there had emerged more or less a consensus macroeconomic framework that is an agreed upon structure to be used to study economic problems at the aggregate level robert solow stated as quoted in leijonhufvud 1968

wage inflation and unemployment in europe the regional dimension johnes g and hyclak t j 1989 wage inflation and unemployment in europe the regional dimension reg studies 23 19 26 in this paper a bargaining model of wage and unemployment determination is used to estimate regional phillips curves for britain italy and the federal republic of germany estimates of region specific non accelerating inflation rates of unemployment nairu are provided movements of these over time are examined the impact of inter regional differences in wage rigidity on unemployment change is analysed in the final section johnes g et hyclak t j 1989 l inflation par les salaires et le chomage en europe l optique regional reg studies 23 19 26 cet article se sert d un modele de la determination des salaires et de l emploi afin d estimer des courbes de phillips pour la grande bretagne l italie et la republique federale allemande on fournit des estimations des taux de chomage regionaux etant donne une inflation stable et on examine les mouvements de ces taux sur le temp

union wage setting and unemployment in the netherlands 1965 1987 this paper presents an empirical model of union wage setting and employment the stackelberg equilibrium unemployment rate is shown to be a function of taxes the replacement ratio the gap between consumer and producer prices productivity effects and the rate of long term unemployment the model is estimated with aggregate data from the private sector in the netherlands 1965 1987 the results suggest that the equilibrium unemployment rate is pushed upwards by taxes the replacement ratio and by the gap between consumer and producer prices and is reduced by productivity effects insider outsider effects appear insignificant

communication computability and common interest games abstract this paper provides a theory of equilibrium selection for one shot two player finite action strategic form common interest games a single round of costless unlimited preplay communication is allowed players are restricted to using strategies that are computable in the sense of church s thesis the equilibrium notion used involves perturbations that are themselves computable the only equilibrium payoff vector that survives these strategic restrictions and the computable perturbations is the unique pareto efficient one journal of economic literature classification numbers c72 c79

revenue neutral tax policies under price uncertainty the firm s response to revenue neutral taxation is investigated under price uncertainty revenue neutral policies adjust simultaneously the marginal tax rate and the level of exemptions while keeping expected tax receipts constant nonincreasing absolute risk aversion is sufficient to sign the firm s response a reduction in the marginal rate causes the firm to contract output implications are established for the equilibrium level of treasury receipts

an integration of trade union models in a sequential bargaining framework this paper aims to embed two popular models of trade union behavior the monopoly model and the efficient bargaining model in a more general framework it does this by analyzing sequential bargaining models where wages are determined before employment and the power of the union in the two stages of the bargain differs as well as finding that the monopoly and efficient bargain models are special cases of this model a new class of models is also discovered this framework is used to analyze the relationship between union pow er and efficiency the empirical analysis of trade unions and the effects of trade union legislation copyright 1987 by royal economic society

work sharing employment and wages the paper analyzes the effects of a reduction in working time on wages and employment with a monopoly union in general it is not clear in which directions these variables move but if employment and working time are perfect substitutes the effects are related to how working time has been determined initially the wage increases if initial working time is smaller than or equal to the trade union optimum whereas the result is unclear when it is larger in this case it is never optimal for a trade union to reduce both the wage and working time in response to a recessionary supply shock the analysis may help to explain varying attitudes towards work sharing in different countries

wage formation in norwegian manufacturing an empirical application of a theoretical bargaining model abstract this paper is concerned with the modelling of quarterly wage inflation in norway we develop a bargaining model which we believe is a sound theoretical base for econometric work in this field among other things the model does not lend support to the practice of imposing phillips curve restrictions on the data without further test a parsimonious model is estimated and is made subject to misspecification tests there is no natural rate of unemployment or nairu in our model any constant unemployment rate is compatible with a constant rate of inflation and a real wage growth equal to the productivity growth however the level of the real wage path will be higher the lower is the rate of unemployment

selected works of michael wallerstein centralized bargaining and wage restraint the literature on corporatism has presented much evidence associating highly centralized systems of collective bargaining with wage restraint and relatively successful macroeconomic performance in addition centralized bargaining is associated with relatively small wage differentials this paper presents a model of the impact of centralized wage setting on both real wages and relative wages the central assumption is that the centralization of wage setting at the national level unites unions who are complements in production since a wage increase for one group of workers negatively affects the welfare of other workers who are complements in production centralized wage setters choose wages below the equilibrium of decentralized wage setting it is also shown that if the union confederation maximizes a utilitarian welfare function with equal weights centralized wage setting decreases wage dispersion while low paid workers clearly gain from centralized bargaining high paid workers may prefer that bargaining be decentralized

a guide to public sector debt and deficits government deficits reinterpreted willem h buiter public sector debt and deficits are a matter of concern to governments throughout the world after presenting data on the public debt and deficits in the uk and abroad this paper considers four key issues first does an increase in the budget deficit today make an increase in inflation in the future more likely in economies like the uk the answer is no because the scope for raising revenue by money creation is limited compared to raising taxes second how does one evaluate the consistency of a given spending and tax programme a number of measures are presented which indicate the adjustment that must be made to spending and tax plans if the government is to remain solvent third it is often argued that an increase in budget deficits will merely crowd out private spending the paper shows that the truth of this proposition depends critically on the state of the economy the time horizon and whether the increased deficit is temporary or permanent finally the question of deriving a suitable measure of fiscal stance is considered developing an index of fiscal impact requires a suitable economic model and a number of different measures are considered and criticized conventional deficit measures whether actual cyclically corrected or inflation corrected are a poor indicator of the government s true fiscal stance

a wage bargaining model for denmark recent models of wage bargaining provide the background for formulating a wage employment model which is estimated for the manufacturing sector in denmark emphasis is laid on an interpretation of the empirical findings in a maroeconomic context the major results are that wage setting is not characterized by money illusion shorter working hours lead in the long run to full wage compensation and a fall in total number of hours worked and expansionary demand management policies induce wage increases which eventually eliminate the expansionary effects on activity

a new theory of equilibrium selection for games with complete information abstract in an earlier paper the author proposed a new theory of equilibrium selection for games with complete information in this paper he proposes an extension of this theory to games with incomplete information a mathematical model is suggested for measuring the strength of the incentives that each type of any player has to use any particular strategy in the case he represents this player in the game then these incentive measures are used for estimating the theoretical probability for any given nash equilibrium to emerge as the outcome of the game the solution of the game is defined as the nash equilibrium with the highest theoretical realization probability when this equilibrium is unique the problems posed by non uniqueness are also discussed journal of economic literature classification numbers c72

expo power utility a flexible form for absolute and relative risk aversion a new utility function which i call expo power is proposed that exhibits decreasing constant or increasing absolute risk aversion and decreasing or increasing relative risk aversion depending on parameter values numerical analysis suggests that the expo power function performs well in incorporating these risk preference structures and that arbitrary risk preference specifications may lead to biased risk response estimates

the wage curve convexity kinks and composition effects a detailed analysis is provided of the shape of the wage curve using annual time series for norwegian manufacturing the main results are summarized as follows unemployment affects wages significantly and we provide evidence in favour of a monotonically decreasing but highly non linear wage curve the long term unemployed exert less of a wage dampening effect than do recently laid off workers and real wage responsiveness to unemployment seems also to be stronger with higher inflation

distribution aggregate demand and unemployment in oecd countries the primary aim of this paper is to investigate the role of income distribution in the determination of unemployment to this end the author develops a post keynesian model that shows that unemployment is effectively determined by income distribution aggregate demand and the inadequacy of capital equipment the deriv ed unemployment equation is applied to ten large industrial countries o ver the period 1976 89 the empirical findings provide strong support fo r the hypothesis that shifts in income distribution and inadequacy of capital equipment are major sources of unemployment copyright 1993 by royal economic society

unions wages and the common interest three models have dominated recent research on the relationship between labor unions wage behavior and national economic performance a simple linear model a parabolic model and a political model this article argues that an unemployment mediated linear model is theoretically preferable in a context of low unemployment encompassing labor movements can be expected to restrain wage demands whereas localized unions have much less incentive to do so in a context of high unemployment localized unions should exhibit wage moderation and the pressure on encompassing unions to restrain wage demands is further accentuated these four models are assessed as predictors of wage changes inflation and misery index levels for 15 industrialized nations over the periods 1960 1973 1974 1979 and 1980 1990 the linear models outperform the parabolic and political models in each of the latter two time periods for the mid to late 1970s the simple linear model performs best but for the 1980s the unemployment medi

exploring the political economy of labour market institutions labour markets how reforms took place many economists argue that the european unemployment problem relates to large labour market rigidities this paper argues that many of those inflexibilities and the underlying institutional regulations can be understood as the outcome of political influence by incumbent employees this is because many policies that increase unemployment actually benefit these insiders an empirical investigation of the determinants of labour market institutions demonstrates that the observations are consistent with this view the findings imply 1 higher exposure of the employed to unemployment facilitates a reduction in the level of employment protection 2 unemployment benefits are lower the more employment reacts to wages 3 a higher level of unemployment and the existence of a right wing government slow down the growth rate of the minimum wage giles saint paul

rational investor sentiment in a repeated stochastic game with imperfect monitoring we consider a repeated stochastic coordination game with imperfect public monitoring in the game any pattern of coordinated play is a perfect bayesian nash equilibrium moreover standard equilibrium selection arguments either have no bite or they select an equilibrium that is not observed in actual plays of the game we give experimental evidence for a unique equilibrium selection and explain this very robust finding by equilibrium selection based on behavioral arguments in particular focal point analysis probability matching and overconfidence our results have interesting applications in finance because the observed equilibrium exhibits momentum reversal and excess volatility moreover the results may help to explain why technical analysis is a commonly observed investment style

pricing to market in a small open economy the determinants of norwegian import prices of manufactures are investigated over the period 1970 1 1991 4 multivariate cointegration analysis establishes a long run relationship between import prices foreign prices the exchange rate and domestic unit labour costs normalized on import prices the long run elasticities are 0 63 foreign prices and the exchange rate and 0 37 domestic costs deviations from this relationship are highly significant in a structural import price equation which also contains positive effects of growth in domestic demand and inflation as well as a negative effect from the norwegian unemployment rate the estimated parameters appear reasonably stable within the sample

joint risk preference technology estimation with a primal system applied studies of the firm in a risky environment have concentrated either on the firm s technology or on its risk preferences these models result in generally inconsistent and inefficient parameter estimates a primal model is proposed which allows a firm s preferences and technology to be estimated jointly in the presence of risk the model is applied to iowa corn production and estimated technology parameters are compared with those from other approaches modest risk aversion leads to inelastic even backbending per acre supplies and input demands yield heteroskedasticity in inputs leads to supply heteroskedasticity in prices especially for risk neutral firms

using business simulation games in regulatory impact analysis the case of policies aimed at reducing nitrogen leaching in the past regulatory impact analysis was predominantly based on the rational choice assumption of a completely informed and exclusively profit maximizing homo oeconomicus real economic actors however are multiple goal and boundedly rational decision makers an exclusive reliance on rational choice models therefore generates the risk that both the pace and the type of behavioural adaptations to changing institutional environments are misjudged against this background this article addresses three questions first can we use business simulation games as a convincing but low cost experimental tool for policy analysis second how do intentionally varied nitrogen extensification schemes impact the behaviour of students who participate in an explorative business simulation study third do nitrogen reduction policies that are framed as voluntary as opposed to prescriptive schemes have a different impact on behaviour even if they lead to the same profits respectively in our business simulation game th

interactions between agricultural and resource policy the importance of attitudes toward risk using a method proposed by meyer for deriving comparative statics results in the presence of risk this paper analyzes the effects of various agricultural and environmental policy alternatives on the choices of a risk averse producer with a just and pope production function many commonly held beliefs about policy effects are not supported unambiguously by economic theory for example a tax on pesticides will not necessarily reduce pesticide use or average output and a reduction in price of agricultural output will not necessarily lead to a reduction in use of water or agricultural chemicals

the rise in unemployment a multi country study one of the most remarkable features of recent economic history has been the remorseless rise in unemployment throughout the industrialized countries however while the trend to higher unemployment is universal the experience of individual countries also differs widely the increase is especially marked within the european community where unemployment rates rival those reached in the interwar years by contrast in the scandinavian countries and japan unemployment is lower and has risen very much less experience in the united states lies somewhere between these extremes and in the last few years unemployment there has fallen sharply

measuring structural unemployment nawru estimates in the nordic countries the non accelerating wage rate of unemployment nawru indicator used by the oecd as a measure of structural unemployment has risen for the four nordic countries denmark finland norway and sweden in this paper we present stable empirical wage equations for the same countries over the period 1964 1994 in sharp contrast to the increased nawru estimates the instability of the nawru estimates is an artefact of a misspecified underlying wage equation and not due to instability in wage setting itself

supply response under proportional profits taxation a striking result in the theory of the competitive firm under certainty is the proposition that a proportional profits tax with full offsets for losses will have no impact on optimal output this result does not apply under uncertainty it is shown that under constant or increasing returns to scale a proportional profits tax will yield an unambiguous expansion in output the same result is shown to hold for the more general rank dependent expected utility rdeu model

wages and the length of the working day an empirical test based on norwegian quarterly manufacturing data a simple framework is specified which is suitable for testing the relationship between the length of the working day and wages per hour the relationship is tested on norwegian manufacturing data using both dynamic modeling and cointegration techniques both methods provide empirical support for a hypothesis of long run independence of real wages and hours conditional on constant productivity and unemployment the results from dynamic modeling confirm that there are significant short run effects of changes in normal hours corresponding to the income compensation schemes usually introduced along with reduction in the length of the working day

resource management under production and output price uncertainty implications for environmental policy various environmental policies have been proposed to control agricultural runoff of nutrients and pesticides the impacts of these policies on input use are complicated because of the various sources of uncertainty farmers face and the precise nature of farmers risk attitude a risk averse farmer s response to changed profit input and output taxes under output price and production uncertainty is examined the impact of these policies on input use depends on the form of production uncertainty risk input relationships risk attitudes and degrees of output price and production uncertainty these results have implications for the design and implementation of environmental and other production related policies copyright 2002 oxford university press

wage interdependence through decentralized bargaining abstract the idea that sector specific unions are influenced by the wages obtained by other unions has mainly been used to support the empirical observation that wages are highly correlated among industries the sources of wage interdependence can mainly be found in unions preferences in the nature of technology and in price and demand determination the presence of externalities and of strategic complementarity among unions leads to suboptimal equilibria which generates non desired inflation unemployment and possibly also trade balance deficit this enforces the idea that part of current unemployment can be eliminated by improving the cooperation between social actors

environmental regulation and the spatial structure of the u s dairy sector substantial public scrutiny about adverse environmental impacts of the dairy sector has resulted in increased environmental regulations a behavioral model of location and production is developed to examine the impacts of environmental regulations traditional location factors and agglomeration economies on the spatial structure and geographical location of dairy production the results show that counties in the states with more stringent environmental regulations tend to lose dairy inventories to those with less stringent policies there are substantially meaningful spatial patterns of dairy production current dairy production levels are positively correlated while changes in production levels are negatively correlated across counties

insider effects in wage determination abstract the paper attempts to shed new light on the determinants of industry wages by a cross country comparison of wage setting relationships making use of comprehensive and consistent panel data on industries from the early 1960s to the mid 1980s the empirical analysis involves estimations of identically specified industry wage equations for each of five countries sweden norway finland germany and the united states a key finding is that industry wages in the u s are the most responsive to sectoral price and productivity changes by contrast industry wages in the nordic countries are largely unaffected by sectoral conditions the results cast doubt on the competitive model as an accurate characterization of wage setting under decentralization

stochastic technology risk preferences and adoption of site specific technologies a model of farmer decision making is developed to determine the extent to which uncertainties about soil fertility and weather affect the value of site specific technologies ssts using jointly estimated risk and technology parameters uncertainty can lead risk averse farmers to apply more fertilizers and generate more pollution than in the certainty case ignoring uncertainty and risk aversion would overestimate the economic and environmental benefits of ssts and underestimate the subsidy required to induce adoption accounting for uncertainties and risk preferences might explain the low observed adoption rates of ssts improving the accuracy of ssts would increase the incentives for adoption

the causes of unemployment in finland 1970 82 some further empirical evidence this study presents an aggregate labour market model of the finnish economy the model is consistent with the finnish institutional features wage determination by collective negotiations and the division of the economy into a supply oriented open sector and a demand oriented closed sector estimated labour market model suggests that the rise in the steady state unemployment rate can be accounted for by the following factors the rise in employer s tax rate the rise in the availability of benefits while out of work increased union strength increased labour force participation and import price shocks

asset markets as an equilibrium selection mechanism coordination failure game form auctions and tacit communication abstract in this paper we explore the possibility that asset markets provide a means of tacit communication which may allow subjects to coordinate on the payoff dominant equilibrium in an underlying coordination game we find that the existence of a market price for the right to play does communicate information about the equilibrium selection problem specifically behavior never converged to the efficient outcome when subjects were endowed with the right to participate but always converged to the efficient outcome when subjects purchased the right to participate journal of economic literature classification numbers c720 g120

interactions between agricultural and environmental policies a conceptual framework agricultural policy has a well documented impact on farmers production decisions and those decisions land water and agricultural chemical use may in turn affect the environment there is a public perception that existing agricultural policies are linked to agricultural pollution as exemplified by the conclusions of the recent national research council report alternative agriculture 1989 there is only limited theoretical or empirical research addressing these linkages however this paper develops a conceptual framework that can be used to analyze the interactions between agricultural and environmental policies and pollution this framework integrates physical and economic models at a disaggregate level necessary to capture the heterogeneity of the physical environment and the economic behavior of farmers following e hochman and d zilberman 1978 the disaggregate units can be statistically aggregated to a level useful for policy analysis agricultural and environmental policies can be categorized according to their effects on the intensive and extensive margins combining the different policy instruments with the microeconomic heterogeneity we find that existing agricultural and environmental policies can have either positive or negative effects of nonpoint source pollution to infer an aggregate effect requires data that do not currently exist our framework provides a basis for empirical investigations of these effects given adequate data moreover we find that agricultural policy instruments can be used to mitigate pollution if used appropriately

institutions and short run macroeconomic performance abstract this paper reviews the growing interest in institutions it argues that the explanation for this interest is a fresh awareness of how institutions affect economic performance this connection arises because many economic interaction take the form of one or other of three classic games prisoners dilemma coordination and chicken and the outcome in these games and hence performance of the economy is influenced by the institutional context of these interactions the paper provides a detailed illustration of this argument with a survey of the literature which relates unemployment performances to the institutions of wage setting in oecd countries