temporary foreign workers and firms theory and canadian evidence abstract temporary foreign worker tfw programs have grown considerably in size when uncapped we develop a simple efficiency wage model to explain this phenomenon and examine the empirical evidence for it we also use the model to evaluate the implications of tfw programs for domestic workers in our framework firms that have been unable to find domestic workers may hire tfws at the wage previously advertised to domestic workers due to the lower outside option for tfws than domestic workers tfws will exert more effort for the same wage firms would thus prefer to hire otherwise identical tfws rather than domestic workers our model identifies an unintended consequence of a tfw program since the repercussions of a failed domestic job search are less severe if a tfw may be hired instead firms have an incentive to lower their wage offers made to domestic workers using canadian data we find that relative to domestic workers tfws work longer hours have lower rates of absenteeism and are less likely to be laid off consistent with higher effort in our model moreover for tfws from home countries with a relatively high outside option effort is lower than for tfws from other countries resume travailleurs etrangers temporaires et entreprises theorie et exemple canadien en l absence de plafonnement les programmes de travailleurs etrangers temporaires ptet se sont considerablement developpes afin d expliquer ce phenomene et d en examiner les preuves empiriques nous avons developpe un modele simple de salaire d efficience nous avons egalement utilise ce modele pour evaluer l incidence des ptet sur les travailleurs domestiques dans notre cadre d etude les entreprises peinant a trouver une main d uvre locale peuvent embaucher des travailleurs etrangers temporaires au salaire prealablement propose aux travailleurs domestiques compte tenu d options exterieures plus faibles les travailleurs etrangers temporaires deploieront davantage d efforts pour le meme salaire les entreprises prefereront donc embaucher des travailleurs etrangers par ailleurs identiques plutot que des travailleurs domestiques notre modele identifie une consequence inattendue aux ptet etant donne que les consequences d une recherche d employes domestiques infructueuse sont attenuees par l embauche de travailleurs etrangers temporaires les entreprises sont incitees a diminuer les offres salariales proposees aux travailleurs locaux en exploitant les donnees propres au canada nous avons decouvert que les travailleurs etrangers temporaires travaillaient plus d heures avaient des taux d absenteisme inferieurs et etaient moins susceptibles de se faire congedier que les travailleurs domestiques conformement au concept d effort accru developpe dans notre modele en outre pour les travailleurs etrangers temporaires originaires de pays a options exterieures relativement elevees l effort sera moindre que pour ceux provenant d autres pays

occupational self selection a human capital approach to sex differences in occupational structure a rich and diverse literature exists concerning the distribution of labor incomes one approach namely that of human capital concentrates on lifetime accumulation paths of earnings capacity units human capital individual variations in human capital imply differences in earnings power thereby yielding strong implications concerning earnings distribution within a population despite its explanatory power the human capital model has been widely criticized one criticism centers on its inability to obtain inferences concerning occupational distribution the purpose of this paper is to alleviate at least some such criticism by applying the hedonic price approach so as to embed occupational choice into the human capital framework the significance is that neoclassical economic theory can be used to obtain implications concerning the determinants of occupational structure excerpt

some empirical evidence on the effects of shocks to monetary policy on exchange rates this paper investigates the effects of shocks to u s monetary policy on exchange rates we consider three measures of these shocks orthogonalized shocks to the federal funds rate orthogonalized shocks to the ratio of nonborrowed to total reserves and changes in the romer and romer index of monetary policy in sharp contrast to the literature we find substantial evidence of a link between monetary policy and exchange rates specifically according to our results a contractionary shock to u s monetary policy leads to i persistent significant appreciations in u s nominal and real exchange rates and ii significant persistent deviations from uncovered interest rate parity in favor of u s interest rates

interrupted work careers depreciation and restoration of human capital the quantitative effects and even the existence of a human capital depreciation phenomenon have been a subject of controversy in the recent literature prior work however was largely cross sectional and the longitudinal dimension if any was retrospective using longitudinal panel data on married women in nls we have now established that real wages at reentry are indeed lower than at the point of labor force withdrawal and the decline in wages is greater the longer the interruption another striking finding is a relatively rapid growth in wages after the return to work this rapid growth appears to reflect the restoration or repair of previously eroded human capital the phenomenon of depreciation and restoration is also visible in data for immigrants to the united states however while immigrants eventually catch up with and often surpass natives returnees from the nonmarket do not fully restore their earnings potential

real exchange rates and real interest rate differentials a present value interpretation although the real exchange rate real interest rate reri relationship is central to most open economy macroeconomic models empirical support for the relationship is generally found to be rather weak in this paper we re investigate the reri relationship using bilateral us real exchange rate data spanning the period 1978 2007 instead of testing one particular model we build on campbell and shiller 1987 cointegration tests of present value models journal of political economy 95 1062 1088 to propose a metric of the economic significance of the relationship our empirical results provide robust evidence that the reri link is economically significant and that the real interest rate differential is a reasonable approximation of the expected rate of depreciation over longer horizons

seasonal flutuations and equilibrium models of exchange rate most of the evidence on dynamic equilibrium exchange rate models is based on seasonally adjusted consumption data equilibrium models have not worked well in explaining the actual exchange rate however the use of seasonally adjusted data might be responsible for the spurious rejection of the model this article presents a new equilibrium model for the exchange rates that incorporates seasonal preferences the fit of the model to the data is evaluated for five industrialized countries using seasonally unadjusted data our findings indicate that a model with seasonal preferences can generate monthly time series of the exchange rate without seasonality even when the variables that theoretically determine the exchange rate show clear seasonal behaviours further the model can generate theoretical exchange rates with the same order of integration than actual exchange rates and in some cases with the same stochastic trend

power approximation for computing s s policies using service level the paper presents an analytic approximation for computing s s policies for single items under periodic review with fixed ordering costs linear holding costs and a service level requirement the replenishment lead time is fixed and unfilled demand is backlogged the approximation is similar to ehrhardt s power approximation however we do not assume the knowledge of shortage costs which are difficult to estimate in practice we define a service level which measures the average backlog relative to the average demand this quantity is easy to understand and frequently used in practice the resulting power approximation policies are easy to compute and require only knowledge of the mean and variance of demand computational results show that the approximation gives a service level which is within one percentage point of the required service level in most cases furthermore the expected total costs of the approximation taking into consideration a penalty cost for stockouts are well within one percent of optimal

heterogeneity tournaments and hierarchies tournament contracts are characterized that simultaneously elicit first best efficient effort levels and self selection of risk neutral heterogeneous workers into ability specific contracts comparisons across self selected ability types are shown to be sometimes necessary to attain efficiency rationales are explored for not commonly observing such contracts in hierarchical organizations

reputation and hierarchy in dynamic models of employment the employment relationship with employees ability and their actions both private information thus combining adverse selection with moral hazard is modeled as a repeated game with self enforcing contracts being perfect bayesian nash equilibria under termination contracts the equilibrium contract structure consists of a hierarchy of ranks finite in number even though ability is continuous reputation acts as an effective device for worker discipline without the need for involuntary unemployment selection by bonding is not in general incentive compatible but selection by promotion of employees through the ranks is many other features correspond to observed employment structures

liquidity and exchange rates abstract we present a two country extension of lucas s 1988a work on cash in advance constraints in asset markets in the model there is temporary separation between the goods and asset markets and money is used for transactions in both we first find that the exchange rate level depends on the share of money used for asset transactions a greater share appreciates the currency second stochastic open market operations increasing the domestic bonds supply appreciate the domestic currency third the liquidity effects of bond supply shocks cause an excess volatility of nominal exchange rates even when their fundamental value is constant

gender differences in training capital and wages this paper constructs an equilibrium job matching model where workers differ in their attachment to the labor force the model predicts that workers with weaker attachment to the labor market will receive lower starting wages and lower post training wages and will be placed in jobs that offer less training and use less capital the implications of the model for gender differences in pay and job assignment are tested with the eopp data set ourfindings suggest that while training intensity during the first three months of employment is similar in positions filled by males and females females are employed in positions that have a shorter duration of on the job training and that use less capital these differences in on the job training and capital in positions filled by men and women as well as a lower market value for women s prior labor market experience account for a substantial part of the gap in wages between males and females

money interest rates and exchange rates with endogenously segmented markets we analyze the effects of money injections on interest rates and exchange rates when agents must pay a baumol tobin style fixed cost to exchange bonds and money asset markets are endogenously segmented because this fixed cost leads agents to trade bonds and money infrequently when the government injects money through an open market operation only those agents that are currently trading absorb these injections through their impact on these agents consumption these money injections affect real interest rates and real exchange rates the model generates the observed negative relation between expected inflation and real interest rates as well as persistent liquidity effects in interest rates and volatile and persistent exchange rates

a search interpretation of male female wage differentials a general equilibrium search framework is used to examine the role of gender differences in labor market behavior patterns e g quit rates for personal reasons in determining gender wage differentials for samples of high school and college graduates from the national longitudinal survey of youth nlsy these behavioral patterns are found to be significantly different across the sexes and account for 20 30 of the wage differentials in particular they play a key role in explaining the male female wage differential that remains after controlling for the gender composition across occupations

an exploration in the theory of exchange rate regimes three exchange rate regimes a float a one sided peg and a cooperative peg are evaluated and compared in terms of efficiency and welfare levels the framework of analysis embodies country specific monies with the money of each country being used to transact in its commodity markets and its currency denominated bonds welfare levels depend only on consumption levels in the presence of perfect foresight all equilibrium allocations are pareto efficient in a floating exchange rate regime the perfect foresight equilibrium allocation coincides with an equilibrium of a costless barter economy the same result holds in a one sided peg if the pegging country s exchange rate stabilizing authority breaks even over time in a cooperative peg regime there is a different equilibrium allocation for each combination of exchange rate levels and monetary policies problems of policy coordination and conflicts in desired monetary policies are discussed

on gender gaps and self fulfilling expectations alternative implications of paid for training i introduction the recent literature on gender differences in the labor market has focused mainly on two issues the first one deals with the mechanisms e g adverse selection that can amplify initial differences in preferences or productivity across genders leading to sizeable gender gaps in wages labor force participation or working hours these models help us understand to what extent changes in gender gaps have been due to changes in fundamentals including differences in the pattern of endogenous accumulation of human capital by men and women 1 the second one is related to the channels explaining persistence in gender gaps even when exogenous differences across the sexes are of little importance or even absent 2 these studies tend to rely upon the existence of incentive problems in the labor market e g moral hazard leading to self fulfilling prophecies about differences in gender roles without assuming any initial comparative advantages our paper falls into this second strand of the literature by considering an alternative mechanism based on statistical discrimination by firms in the provision of paid for training to male and female workers this yields multiplicity of equilibria in gender gaps even in the absence of moral hazard 3 the basic idea in models of gender gaps relying upon self fulfilling prophecies is that employers beliefs about women s lower attachment to the labor market lead to wage differentials in favor of men hence since women expect to face a lower expected opportunity cost they end up devoting more time to housework validating in this way firms beliefs for example albanesi and olivetti 2009 propose a model where firms are subject to incentive compatible constraints due to their imperfect monitoring of workers effort a moral hazard problem and of hours of housework an adverse selection problem as a result different types of labor contracts are offered to men and women in a similar vein lommerud and vagstad 2007 deal with a model where firms allocate workers to fast and slow track jobs the former requiring a fixed investment cost if women have traditionally exerted primary major responsibility at home and wages are non contractible they will predominantly follow a mommy track in equilibrium while incentive problems often used to derive additional predictions on the structure of wages to be confronted with the data provide a useful modeling device they could be somewhat restrictive for instance concerning the difficulty of perfectly monitoring effort pay gaps should be negligible for routine tasks performed by less skilled employees for whom effort and output should be easily observable yet even after removing differences in observable characteristics and in the overall wage dispersion there is evidence about substantial gender gaps in hourly wages in these categories see e g blau and kahn 2000 bassanini and saint martin 2008 de la rica et al 2008 our paper contributes to this literature by proposing a novel mechanism which does not rely on incentive problems we consider a two period model in which firms initially offer paid for training to workers taking as given the division of housework between spouses in the second period spouses decide on how to split the certain and uncertain parts of housework where the latter is captured by the realization of a shock affecting household tasks during this period e g unexpected need of housework or events that require parental leave etc both decisions interact because the housework decision determines whether a spouse works or quits after receiving training and the firm chooses the amount of training without observing the household s housework allocation statistical discrimination arises in this setup as a result of firms prior beliefs about which spouse is more likely to quit the job under the key assumptions that wages are predetermined with respect to housework shocks and that the household does not re optimize after the shock is revealed asymmetric beliefs will induce differences in the provision of training across spouses

mommy tracks and public policy on self fulfilling prophecies and gender gaps in hiring and promotion abstract consider a model with two types of jobs the profitability of hiring a worker to a fast track job depends not only on his or her observable talent but also on incontractible effort we investigate whether self fulfilling expectations may lead to higher hiring or promotion standards for women if employers expect women to do more household work than men thereby exerting less effort in their paid job then women must be more talented to make it profitable to hire them specialization in the family will then result in women doing most of the household work such self fulfilling prophecies can be defeated by affirmative action or family policy however it is unlikely that temporary policy can move the economy to a symmetric equilibrium policy must be made permanent anti discrimination policy need not enhance efficiency and from a distribution viewpoint this is a policy with both winners and losers

leadtime reduction in a q r inventory system an agency perspective abstract we examine the problem of designing and implementing a continuous review q r inventory system from an agency perspective in which the agent s effort influences the item s replenishment leadtime our results are as follows if the agent is risk neutral a linear or quadratic contract achieves first best for a risk averse agent with an exponential utility function assuming a normal leadtime distribution we determine the optimal linear contract extensive numerical experiments suggest that ignoring the possible influence of the agent on the replenishment leadtime can be costly but that the cost penalty of ignoring agency can be significantly reduced by a simple contract

luck effort and reward in an organizational hierarchy using the personnel records of a large british financial sector employer we investigate how workers respond to remuneration differences and luck in the promotion system the results confirm that workers respond to larger remuneration spreads by working harder increased certainty in the promotion process also has this effect there appears to be no difference between men s and women s reactions to promotion incentives gender differences in the raw data therefore appear not due to incentives we need to look elsewhere for an explanation

the liquidity effects of foreign exchange intervention abstract this paper examines the effectiveness of foreign exchange intervention in a two country two currency general equilibrium model that allows for liquidity effects both sterilized and non sterilized intervention operations have significant impacts on the allocation of liquidity in international financial markets whether intervention is successful in moving the exchange rate in the desirable direction depends upon the degree of sterilization of intervention and the intratemporal elasticity of substitution of the consumption goods the model shows that there exist circumstances in which the response of exchange rate to intervention is perverse as documented in the empirical literature

tractable q r heuristic models for constrained service levels the fill rate the proportion of demand that is satisfied from stock is a viable alternative in inventory models to the hard to quantify penalty cost however a number of difficulties have impeded its implementation among them that the existing cycle based approximate solutions do not reflect the possibility of multiple outstanding orders and that the optimal policy cannot be found directly but must be iteratively calculated we show that for a large family of leadtime demand distributions the optimal policy depends on only two parameters the fill rate and the economic order quantity eoq scaled by the standard deviation of demand over the constant leadtime if we then assume that the leadtime demand is normally distributed we can use the asymptotic results as the eoq goes to zero and to positive infinity to fit atheoretic curves for the order quantity q and the reorder point r these fitted curves yield a good q r policy without iteration we also find that among the set of simple heuristics the limit form as eoq goes to positive infinity provides a better alternative to simply setting q equal to the eoq

the gender gap in early career wage growth in the uk the gender pay gap on entry to the labour market is approximately zero but ten years after labour market entry there is a gender wage gap of almost 25 log points this article explores the reason for this gender gap in early career wage growth considering three main hypotheses human capital job shopping and psychological theories human capital factors can explain about 11 log points job shopping about 1 5 log points and the psychological theories up to 4 5 log points depending on the specification but a substantial unexplained gap remains women who have continuous full time employment have had no children and express no desire to have them earn about 8 log points less than equivalent men after 10 years in the labour market

how does regional institutional complexity affect mne internationalization international business research is only beginning to develop theory and evidence highlighting the importance of supranational regional institutions to explain firm internationalization in this context we offer new theory and evidence regarding the effect of a region s institutional complexity on foreign direct investment decisions by multinational enterprises mnes we define a region s institutional complexity using two components regional institutional diversity and number of countries we explore the unique relationships of both components with mnes decisions to internationalize into countries within the region drawing on semiglobalization and regionalization research and institutional theory we posit an inverted u shaped relationship between a region s institutional diversity and mne internationalization extremely low or high regional institutional diversity has negative effects on internationalization but moderate diversity has a positive effect on internationalization larger numbers of countries within the region reduces mne internationalization in a linear fashion we find support for these predicted relationships in multilevel analyses of 698 japanese mnes operating in 49 countries within 9 regions regional institutional complexity is both a challenge and an opportunity for mnes seeking advantages through the aggregation and arbitrage of individual country factors

economic contests comparative reward schemes contests are situations in which an individual s reward depends on his performance relative to others students are graded on a curve the candidate with the most votes gets the political office the underling who performs best is promoted to the executive position contests are useful in dealing with indivisible rewards reducing monitoring costs and minimizing risks from common uncertainties they are employed to sort potential participants and once they have entered to induce appropriate effort from them with monitoring precision and prize spreads as potential choice variables optimal contest structures are derived for fair and unfair contests among equal and unequal participants the converse problems of climbing low ability individuals enter the contest designed for high ability candidates and slumming are shown to be manageable

discrimination empirical evidence from the united states the study of discrimination received a major impetus in the 1960 s when increasing social attention focused upon race and gender differentials in market outcomes gary becker s the economics of discrimination 1957 strongly influenced empirical research by providing a definition of wage discrimination and suggesting a specific way in which it might operate during the following years new theories were developed and refined in an attempt to explain why there appears to be continued discrimination in spite of market forces presumably operating against it similarly a large amount of empirical work has been done to determine whether and how much discrimination actually exists and to a lesser extent to test the implications of the various theories even so the hope expressed by becker in the preface of the second edition 1971 that our understanding of discrimination would increase so rapidly that the materials in his book would become obsolete before another decade began has clearly not been fulfilled here we review what has been learned in the intervening years and suggest some fruitful directions for future research 1 the focus of this paper like that of most of the empirical research in this area is on determining the extent of discrimination rather than on testing alternative models of discrimination

mean reversion in investment decisions the case of hollywood one explanation for the comparatively lower quality of movie sequels is selection bias known in personnel economics as the peter principle only abnormally successful movies are selected for a sequel another explanation is a deterministic depreciation in quality due to the decline in the novelty of the sequel s characters and storyline both explanations predict that relative to the original the sequel s performance will revert towards the mean we develop a structural model to decompose the two explanations and estimate its parameters using detailed data on 306 franchise films and 2 823 non franchise films between 1995 and 2014 parameter estimates provide evidence of selection bias for action adventure and horror movies and evidence of a deterministic decline in quality for comedies

parental leave a policy evaluation of the swedish daddy month reform abstract many governments are making attempts to increase fathers share of parental leave in order to correct for unequal labor market outcomes using swedish data we ask whether fathers can be encouraged to take more parental leave in order to mitigate the negative consequences of mothers career interruptions the unique data stem from a reform of parental leave resulting in a clean natural experiment data comprise all children born before control group and after treatment group the date of implementation of the reform in cohorts of up to 27 000 newborns mothers and fathers we find strong short term effects of the incentives on male parental leave but no behavioral effects in the household fathers in the treatment group do not take larger shares of the leave taken for care of sick children which is our measure for household work we also investigate a second data set on fathers and mothers long term wages and employment without finding evidence for substantial effects of the reform

a note on the determinants of unexpected exchange rate movements abstract in this paper we study the relative importance of surprises in fundamentals in explaining unexpected exchange rate movements employing a unique survey dataset that contains matched exchange rate and interest rate expectations we are able to derive a number of interesting conclusions a variance decomposition of unexpected exchange rate movements into various components reveals that interest rate news is relatively unimportant but that changes in perceptions about risk premia and more importantly revisions of expectations with regard to future exchange rate levels are crucial in explaining unexpected exchange rate movements

up or out rules in the market for lawyers we examine how up or out rules operate as a screening device in the market for lawyers using data on large new york law firms we show that firm growth is a slow and uncertain process because performance as an associate is not an especially informative signal about whether a lawyer will make a good partner and because the costs of mistaken promotion are relatively high a newly hired associate is unlikely to be a suitable partner and the screening process is relatively imprecise firm growth therefore contributes between 5 7 of the present value of profits of a law firm

the liquidity premium in average interest rates abstract we extend recent models of liquidity to study how a systematic relationship between monetary shocks and output affects the average real short term interest rate

time varying risk interest rates and exchange rates in general equilibrium under mild assumptions the data indicate that time varying risk is the primary force driving nominal interest rate differentials on currency denominated bonds this finding is an immediate implication of the fact that exchange rates are roughly random walks a general equilibrium monetary model with an endogenous source of risk variation a variable degree of asset market segmentation can produce key features of actual interest rates and exchange rates in this model the endogenous segmentation arises from a fixed cost for agents to exchange money for assets as inflation varies so does the benefit of asset market participation and that changes the fraction of agents participating these effects lead the risk premium to vary systematically with the level of inflation this model produces variation in the risk premium even though the fundamental shocks have constant conditional variances

liquidity models in open economies theory and empirical evidence abstract this paper presents an overview of recent theoretical and empirical research on liquidity models in open economies this is a class of optimizing models where money has effects on real asset prices and economic activity without relying on the ad hoc assumption of price wage stickiness the non neutrality of money derives from a temporary segmentation between goods and asset markets after surveying the theoretical literature on liquidity models we present empirical evidence based on var econometric techniques for the seven major industrial countries such evidence is shown to be consistent with the main implications of the liquidity models

money and exchange rates in the grossman weiss rotemberg model abstract we analyze the impact of monetary policy on inflation interest rates and exchange rates in a model with segmented asset markets developed by grossman and weiss 1983 and rotemberg 1984 1985 we find parameters for which real and nominal exchange rates in this model are 1 much more volatile than interest rates inflation rates and money growth rates 2 highly correlated with each other and 3 highly persistent while this model fails to match the data in other important respects it illustrates a potentially useful approach to modelling exchange rate behavior

gender and promotion in the economics profession the authors use unique panel data on american economic association members to test for gender differences in promotion in a profession with a well defined promotion and job hierarchy and in which men and women exhibit similar labor market attachment the results suggest that over the period from the 1960s through the early 1980s female economists had lower levels of professional attainment and career advancement than did their male colleagues with similar attributes these gender differences remain in evidence despite controls for unobserved heterogeneity and self selection between academic and non academic jobs there is evidence however that promotion prospects for female economists significantly improved during the 1980s not only at all ranks but also within both ph d granting institutions and non ph d granting institutions in fact the results reveal no unexplained gender specific differences in promotion by the end of the 1980s

forward discount puzzle and liquidity effects some evidence from exchange rates among the united states canada and japan this paper empirically examines whether the interaction between foreign exchange markets and monetary markets can help to resolve the forward discount puzzle following the monetary models of lucas 1990 and fuerst 1992 we define as liquidity effects the negative impact of monetary injection on nominal interest rates temporary deviations from the standard euler equation the liquidity effect identified by these models weakens the linkage between current forward rates and expected future spot rates and improves on the standard rational expectations model that predicts a one to one correspondence between the two using time series of exchange rates among the united states canada and japan this paper shows that the liquidity measure identified above has an impact on forward premiums and that once the liquidity effect is taken into consideration the unbiased prediction of the forward discount rate is recovered to some extent in a theoretically consistent manner

floating exchange rates with liquidity constraints in financial markets abstract we construct a two country model in which there exist cash in advance constraints in commodity as well as in asset markets the seller s currency is used for transactions in commodity markets and the lender s money is used for transactions in the bond markets the exchange rate equation that emerges from this structure has a new feature it exhibits a bias towards depreciation of the borrowers currency we describe the equilibrium dynamics of this type of a world economy and show that it may exhibit cyclical movements

the provision of incentives in firms i ncentives are the essence of economics despite many wide ranging claims about their supposed importance there has been little empirical assessment of incentive provision for workers the purpose of this paper is to critically overview existing work on the provision of incentives since the interests of workers and their employers are not always aligned a large theoretical literature has emphasized how firms design compensation contracts to induce employees to operate in the firm s interest this literature has reached into many areas of compensation and has pointed to a multitude of different mechanisms that can be used to induce workers to act in the interests of their employers these include piece rates options discretionary bonuses promotions profit sharing efficiency wages deferred compensation and so on my objective here is to evaluate this literature in the light of a growing empirical literature on compensation where possible i will address the literature from two perspectives first an underlying assumption of this literature is that individuals respond to contracts that reward performance accordingly i consider whether agents behave in this way and whether these responses are always in the firm s interest second i address whether firms write contracts with these responses in mind in other words do contracts look like the predictions of the theory incentives are provided to workers

classic promotion tournaments versus market based tournaments as initially formulated in the seminal analysis of lazear and rosen 1981 an important perspective for understanding the role of promotions in firms is the tournament perspective that is a promotion and in particular the wage increase associated with a promotion is a prize that serves as an incentive for workers to exert effort and take other actions beneficial to the firm such as the accumulation of human capital in this paper i consider whether the best way to model promotion tournaments is by having firms commit to prizes ex ante as in lazear and rosen s initial formulation or whether promotion prizes should be modeled as arising from the signaling role of promotions and the competition between firms for promoted workers

liquidity capital controls and exchange rates abstract we present a two country extension of lucas 1990 work on how cash in advance constraints in asset markets affect the pricing of financial assets in the model there is some degree of separation between the goods markets and the asset markets and money is used for transactions in both markets the main results of the paper are the following first the equilibrium level of the exchange rate depends on the share of money used for asset transactions a greater share corresponds to a more appreciated currency second capital controls in the form of taxes on foreign asset acquisitions tend to appreciate the exchange rate third the maturity structure of the public debt affects the equilibrium exchange rate in particular a move towards a longer maturity structure will tend to depreciate the exchange rate jel 31

an opposing responses test of classic versus market based promotion tournaments we use a systems based econometric method to show that classic and market based tournament models are empirically distinguishable since the role of risk differs across these models implementing the method using a large finnish worker firm matched panel we find support for classic tournaments given that promotions depend on relative performance the firm s wage structure is convex promotion probabilities are decreasing in the number of competitors performance is increasing in the wage spread and workers and firms adjust their choice variables in opposite directions when the variance of the stochastic component of worker performance changes

early gender gaps among university graduates abstract we use data from six cohorts of university graduates in germany to assess the extent of gender gaps in college and labor market performance twelve to eighteen months after graduation men and women enter college in roughly equal numbers but more women than men complete their degrees women enter college with slightly better high school grades but women leave university with slightly lower marks immediately following university completion male and female full timers work a very similar number of hours per week but men earn more than women across the pay distribution with an unadjusted gender gap in full time monthly earnings of about 20 log points on average including a large set of controls reduces the gap to 5 10 log points the single most important proximate factor that explains the gap is field of study at university

will you marry me a perspective on the gender gap abstract this paper develops a general equilibrium model of the gender wage gap the difference in earnings is a consequence of a demographic regularity that men tend to marry younger women which may limit women s labor mobility and hence their average earnings however couples are always free not to marry and do so only if it is in each s self interest the intrafamily allocation of resources is determined via non cooperative bargaining this leads to interesting interactions between the game played by husband and wife on the one hand and the competitive environment in which they are immersed on the other the predictions resulting from this model s interplay between locational choice and family bargaining are consistent with the observation that the increasing stress put by women on their careers over the past 30 years has been contemporaneous with reductions in both marriage rates and the gender gap the model provides insight into the consequences of this for the relative welfare of men and women as well as exploring its wider economic implications

discrimination and job uncertainty abstract in this paper i incorporate group behaviour into a model of the labour market and show that discrimination can be the result of competition between coalitions of workers and bosses for jobs if the probability of correctly assessing the productivity of individual workers decreases coalition formation on the basis of recognisable characteristics becomes relatively more rewarding than coalition forming on the basis of productivity the conditions are under which each individual in the endogeneously defined group actively discriminates persons with different recognisable characteristics independent of productivity

outside offers and the gender pay gap empirical evidence from the uk academic labour market using a unique data source on academic economist labour market experiences we explore gender pay and promotions in addition to earnings and productivity measures we have information on outside offers and perceptions of discrimination we find both a gender promotions gap and a within rank gender pay gap a driving factor may be outside offers men receive more outside offers than women of comparable characteristics and gain higher pay increases in response this may arise due to discrimination we find that perceptions of discrimination and also outside job applications correlate with an individual receiving earnings below that expected given their characteristics

money and interest in a cash in advance economy the authors analyze an aggregative general equilibrium model in which the use of money is motivated by a cash in advance constraint applied to purchases of a subset of consumption goods the system is subject to both real and monetary shocks which are economy wide and observed by all they develop methods for verifying the existence of characterizing and explicitly calculating equilibria copyright 1987 by the econometric society

monetary policy liquidity and foreign exchange markets an exploration abstract this paper explores empirically the fluctuations of money demand arising from financial markets fluctuations in financial markets liquidity are reflected in interest rates and asset returns the paper uses daily data on the swiss franc and other currencies from january 1 1980 until december 31 1987 and is based on a priori knowledge on the timing of liquidity shocks in the empirical analysis i ask whether at the time liquidity shocks occur abnormal rates of return can be observed in the foreign exchange markets

money banking and the determination of real and nominal exchange rates the authors consider a model where spatial separation limited communication and stochastic relocation create a role for banks and country specific currencies the same factors also permit a deviation from the law of one price the authors examine how monetary policies influence real and nominal rates of exchange and real and nominal rates of interest under both fixed and flexible exchange rate regimes they also demonstrate that both regimes are characterized by an indeterminacy of both the real and the nominal rate of exchange copyright 1997 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

promotion signaling gender and turnover new theory and evidence we extend promotion signaling theory to incorporate gender and across firm mobility within and across job levels evidence from worker firm linked finnish panel data supports our theory for some groups controlling for worker performance inferred from performance related pay within firm promotion probabilities are increasing and wage increases from promotion are decreasing in educational attainment for some educational groups with results stronger for first than for subsequent promotions women have lower promotion probabilities than men and a greater sensitivity of promotion probability to educational attainment across firm promotions are rare but bring wage increases exceeding those for internal promotions and across firm lateral moves

formal but less equal gender wage gaps in formal and informal jobs in urban brazil in developing countries a large share of employees work informally and are not covered by employment protection legislation i study here how gender wage inequality differs across formal and informal jobs in brazil the raw gender wage gap is higher in informal jobs 13 compared to formal jobs 5 but i show that this difference is an artefact of different male and female selection processes first women have better observable characteristics than men and the female advantage is stronger among formal employees second men and women entering formal and informal jobs have different unobservable characteristics controlling for endogenous selection into formal vs informal jobs i find that the gender gap in wage offers is high and increases with education in formal jobs in informal jobs however estimated wage offers are the same for men and women i discuss the potential implications of these findings regarding the effect of labour market regulation on gender wage gaps

foreign capital and gender differences in promotions evidence from large brazilian manufacturing firms proquest denotes formulae omitted widespread consensus asserts that occupational segmentation is the chief determinant for gender differences in wages in the brazilian labor market see for example oliveira 2001 although women represent 39 percent of the formal workforce in brazil they amount to only 23 percent of the employees in the sectors that pay relatively higher wages in 2004 as well the predominance of segmentation increases if one restricts attention to managerial positions of which women hold only 14 percent this suggests that limited promotion prospects for women in the brazilian job market may present barriers to their promotion to the upper rungs of the corporate ladder this paper contributes to the literature by examining data from the larg est firms of the brazilian manufacturing industry in particular our goal is to determine whether obstacles to women s ascension exist by tracking the amount of time it takes for a woman to get a promotion to a managerial posi tion the aim is to complement the literature on gender differences in promo tions whose papers mainly focus on computing the promotion rates time to promotion offers a different angle in that samples with a large time span could well present similar likelihoods of promotion for both genders even if the promotion durations are different we construct the duration variable by following from january 1996 to december 2005 every individual who enters the annual report of social information rais database between january 1991 and december 1995 we denote as nonpromoted the individuals who do not obtain a promotion to a managerial position within the sample that is the right censored observations whereas we assign duration zero to the workers who already are in managerial positions in january 1996 accordingly we label as promoted the individuals within our sample who rise to a managerial position that is those with uncensored positive durations investigating dif ferences in promotions is particularly difficult because observationally simi lar male and female workers may display equal promotion rates and durations even in the presence of gender differences for example promotions may differ in quality as far as we know this is the first study to examine gender differences in promotions using microdata from a developing country apart from the obvious interest in finding whether the main stylized facts hold in a latin american country we were also motivated by the quality and availability of the brazilian data in contrast to the many studies that employ data from individual firms see for example cabral ferber and green 1981 gerhart and milkovich 1989 baker gibbs and holmstrom 1994 our study relies on a homogeneous sample of recently hired workers from the brazilian manufac turing industry in the period from 1996 to 2005 our data set is particularly convenient first the data include a wide array of controls for worker and firm characteristics second unlike blau and devaro 2007 we observe multiple workers per establishment at different occupations and hierarchical levels as well as their career paths in terms of occupation and wage a potential limi tation is that our data set does not include any direct measure of on the job productivity and hence we must come up with indirect controls interestingly we find that there are significantly fewer gender differences in the time to promotion within foreign owned firms than within domestic firms in the brazilian manufacturing industry our findings complement to some extent the literature on the differences between multinationals and domestic firms doms and jensen 2006 greene and others 2009 as well as the evidence that gender differences may depend on the nature of the firm 1 we argue that such gender differences are consistent with statistical discrimi nation and self selection we reason as follows suppose there are relatively more women than men who prefer to dedicate more time to their family than to their careers

female led firms and gender wage policies using a longitudinal data set covering the period 1987 2000 the authors explore the impact of female employers and gender segregation on wages in portugal in the context of becker s 1957 taste for discrimination theory they investigate whether the gender of a firm manager affects gender wage differences they find that females benefit from higher wages in female led firms than in male led firms further when females lead the wage gap between female and male workers is reduced by 1 5 regardless of the gender composition of the workforce at the same time the higher the share of females in a firm the lower the wages overall for both female and male workers the authors results are compatible with the notion that job promotion is an important factor in wage increases the more females are mentored and promoted the less men will be however as more females in the firm compete for promotion opportunities for both females and males to be promoted diminish author s abstract

sabotage in tournaments evidence from a laboratory experiment although relative performance schemes are pervasive in organizations reliable empirical data on induced sabotage behavior are almost nonexistent we study sabotage in repeated tournaments in a controlled laboratory experiment and observe that effort and sabotage are higher for higher wage spreads additionally we find that also in the presence of tournament incentives agents react reciprocally to higher wages by exerting higher effort destructive activities are reduced by explicitly calling them by their name sabotage communication among principal and agents can curb sabotage when they agree on flat prize structures and increased output if sabotage is not possible the principals choose tournament incentives more often this paper was accepted by peter wakker decision analysis

common currencies vs monetary independence we study the optimal monetary policy in a two country open economy model under two monetary arrangements a multiple currencies controlled by independent policy makers b common currencies with a centralized policy maker our findings suggest that i monetary policy competition leads to higher long term inflation and interest rates with large welfare losses ii the inflation bias and the consequent losses are larger when countries are unable to commit to future policies iii the welfare losses from higher long term inflation dominates the welfare costs of losing the ability to react optimally to shocks

male female wage differentials in job ladders much of the male female wage differential exists because men and women are assigned to different jobs within narrow job categories there is no male female differential only a tortured taste theory of discrimination can reconcile these facts we argue that differential movement along job ladders entails comparative advantage so the ability standard for promotion is higher for women this implies that more able women will be passed over in favor of less able men women assumed to have the same ability distribution as men earn less the differential reflects females lower promotion probability not within job discrimination

inventory service level measures convexity and approximation we argue that standard approximations for two often used inventory service level measures may perform poorly in many situations then we confirm the long standing conjecture that the relatively exact formulas for these quantities are convex functions of the relevant control variables both results suggest the exact expressions should be seriously considered in practical work

the principles of exchange rate determination in an international finance experiment this paper reports the first experiments designed to explore the behavior of economies with prominent features of international finance two countries each with its own currency were created international trade could take place only through the operation of markets for currency the law of one price and the flow of funds theory of exchange rate determination were used to produce general equilibrium models that captured much of the behavior of the economies prices of goods as well as the exchange rate evolve over time toward the predictions of the models however both the law of one price and purchasing power parity can be rejected for reasons that do not appear in the literature patterns of international trade were as predicted by the law of comparative advantage

sickness absence an international comparison this paper shows how internationally and intertemporally consistent information on sickness absence can be constructed from labour force surveys and describes some important features of data that we have generated using the luxembourg employment study we also analyse sickness absence rates by age gender and other socio economic characteristics of workers these relationships prove to be similar across countries with widely differing mean rates of absence in this dataset workers with longer tenure tend to have higher absence rates even when age is controlled for absence is also positively correlated with higher usual hours of work we show how internationally and intertemporally consistent information on sickness absence can be constructed from labour force surveys lfs and describe some important features of data that we have generated using the luxembourg employment study les such data fill an important gap in available information about absence since they have the potential to provide answers to a number of issues that remain unresolved in its study there is now substantial evidence going back to the work of the industrial fatigue research board in the 1920s and 1930s i that sickness absence is not purely a response to a medical condition workers who have access to compensation payments are more likely to be absent than those without buzzard and shaw 1952 the higher the rate of compensation the more absences workers are likely to take buzzard and shaw 1952 furthermore the higher the rate of compensation the longer absences are likely to be barmby et al 1991 the analysis of sickness absence is placed firmly in the agenda of economics by the idea that sickness absence rates are the consequence of choices that can be mediated by financial and other incentives the provision and level of sickpay is typically determined at two levels by negotiation between firms and their workforces and by government regulation interfirm variations in absence and their correlates are not well understood coles and treble 1996 have argued that the marginal cost of an absence is partially in the control of firms and can be usefully seen as driven by the nature of the technology adopted these theoretical arguments remain largely unexplored empirically but the ability to compare similar industries across different countries is likely to be revealing this paper was drafted during a visit to ceps instead in the summer of 1999 the research was funded by a grant of the european commission under the tmr programme access to large scale facilities hosted by iriss c i at ceps instead in differdange luxembourg we are also grateful for support from the leverhulme foundation through a grant to the institute for labour research at the university of essex and to colleagues at the ilr for their constructive comments acknowledgements to les data providers are given at the end of the paper we would also like to thank paul alkemade elena bardasi and pascal garin for their help any remaining errors are our own and the views expressed herein are not necessarily those of ceps instead 1 see for example vernon and bedford 1928

equal worth equal opportunities pay and promotion in an internal labour market using personnel data from a large financial company the authors find some evidence that women have to meet more stringent criteria than men for promotion but that much of the difference between men and women s attainment is due to their attributes for example lack of work experience is more important quantitatively than glass ceilings in preventing the preferment of women the authors data also suggest that the differential barriers confronting women are greatest at the lower end of the job ladder and that men and women may receive equal treatment once senior grades have been reached copyright 1996 by royal economic society

strategic promotion and compensation within a hierarchical firm structure this paper details how the composition of a worker s skills and the non observability of a worker s ability affect wage and promotion paths promotionbased compensation schemes derive naturally from the worker s asymmetrically observed ability promotion takes place over time and is inefficient since employers strategically exploit their knowledge of an able worker s ability conversely employers may be unable to efficiently demote and retain bad managers without paying bonuses employers are led to promote educated employees before their equally or more able but uneducated counterparts explanations for fast track promotions plans and other empirical regularities are provided

liquidity and real activity in a simple open economy model abstract this paper analyzes the ability of an open economy version of lucas s 1990 liquidity model to account for properties of international data the focus is on the model s ability to account for exchange rate dynamics and measured effects of monetary policy shocks on exchange rates interest rates and real activities across countries the model generates a prediction that a positive domestic monetary innovation is associated with nominal and real currency depreciations however the model s predictions with respect to nominal and real exchange rate volatilities are low

open economy macroeconomics developments in theory and policy this paper views developments in open economy macroeconomics through the lens of the debate over european monetary unification the empirical tendency for nominal exchange rate regimes to affect the variability of nominal and real exchange rates alike can be rationalized by sticky price theories or models of asset market liquidity effects but plausible liquidity models have difficulty generating enough persistence to match the data thus the macroeconomic stabilization costs of forgoing the exchange rate realignment option seem pertinent it is argued that our theories of efficiencies due to a common currency remain unsatisfactory despite recent advances the paper concludes by reviewing theories of currency crisis

exchange rate dynamics and international effects of monetary shocks in monetary equilibrium models abstract this paper analyzes the ability of open economy extensions of lucas s 1990 liquidity model to explain features of observed nominal and real exchange rate dynamics and responses of key variables to monetary shocks the two country models that we consider are inhabited by multi member households who face cash in advance constraints on goods purchases and shocks to each country s technology and money growth rate countries are linked by trades in goods and currencies qualitative and quantitative implications of the model economies for exchange rate dynamics and behaviors of other key variables are examined

capital flows investment and exchange rates abstract this paper incorporates international capital flows into a two country monetary general equilibrium model of asset prices with investment and production we calculate theoretical covariances between investment the current account the exchange rate and the terms of trade these covariances depend upon the coefficient of relative risk aversion the magnitude and sign of a country s net international indebtedness other properties of tastes and technologies and the stochastic processes on disturbances to productivity and monetary growth rates international capital flows arise from changes in world wealth and its relative composition in foreign and domestic assets

financial market effects on aggregate money demand a bayesian analysis empirical researchers in aggregate money demand have long been concerned with the degree of substitutability between money and other capital assets and the impact on money holdings of financial markets developments despite the potential importance of financial market linkages to money demand empirical studies display substantial diversity in modeling these influences various econometric studies have found that money holdings may depend on short term debt returns bond yields and even the term structure of interest rates there is also evidence that stock market returns and measures of stock trading affect money holdings existing studies are limited in their evaluation of asset substitution patterns and other financial market effects because they look at a small subset of possible specifications

the welfare implications of foreign exchange intervention abstract this paper examines the welfare implications of foreign exchange intervention in a two country two currency general equilibrium model with limited participation in financial markets and cash in advance constraints on transactions both sterilized and nonsterilized intervention operations have significant impacts on the allocation of liquidity in international financial markets and therefore affect real economic activities the welfare effects of shocks to monetary policy sterilized and nonsterilized foreign exchange interventions are examined and compared the design of welfare maximizing intervention policy rules is also discussed