the effect of life expectancy on fertility saving schooling and economic growth theory and evidence we construct a simple growth model where agents with uncertain survival choose schooling time life cycle consumption and the number of children we show that rising longevity reduces fertility but raises saving schooling time and the growth rate at a diminishing rate cross section analyses using data from 76 countries support these propositions life expectancy has a significant positive effect on the saving rate secondary school enrollment and growth but a significant negative effect on fertility through sensitivity analyses the effect on the saving rate is inconclusive while the effects on the other variables are robust and consistent these estimated effects are decreasing in life expectancy

inflation and asset life the darby versus the fisher effect our paper extends prior work on abandonment and replacement policies by analyzing the effects of both the darby and the fisher interest rate hypotheses in most of the new cases developed the effect of increased inflation on economic life is ambiguous in the abandonment problem we find a greater tendency under the fisher hypothesis than under the darby hypothesis for increased inflation to result in an extension of economic life in contrast for the replacement problem there is a greater tendency under the fisher hypothesis than under darby for inflation to shorten the asset holding period

an extension of mohring s model for land rent distribution abstract in an early paper herbert mohring j pol econ 49 1961 presented a model for land rent distribution yielding the well known result that the price of land must fall with the distance from the city center to offset transportation costs our paper is an extension of mohring s model in which we relax some of his drastic simplifying assumptions this extended model has been incorporated in a method for economic evaluation of city master plans which has been applied to a swedish city in this method the interdependence among housing heating and transportation the durability of urban structures and the uncertainty of future demand are explicitly considered within a cost benefit approach some empirical results from this pilot study concerning land rent distributions are also presented here

women s schooling home teaching and economic growth the hypothesis that increases in the schooling of women enhance the human capital of the next generation and thus make a unique contribution to economic growth is assessed on the basis of data describing green revolution india estimates are obtained that indicate that a component of the significant and positive relationship between maternal literacy and child schooling in the indian setting reflects the productivity effect of home teaching and that the existence of this effect combined with the increase in returns to schooling for men importantly underlies the expansion of female literary following the onset of the green revolution

basic needs government debt and economic growth this paper investigates the relationships between basic needs and economic growth where the interactions between output health nutrition and education are explicitly simultaneous we find a unidirectional relationship that improving basic welfare contributes strongly to labour productivity change but a clear reverse causation only from growth to nutrition there are substantial differences in the patterns of simultaneous interactions at different income and welfare levels there are strong self reinforcing effects of literacy and debt service on poverty making it difficult for poor countries to rectify their situation channelling resources towards improving health education and nutrition could bring dramatic economic returns

on stationarity and cointegration of international health expenditure and gdp this paper examines stationarity and cointegration of health expenditure and gdp for a sample of 21 oecd countries using data for the period 1960 1997 by applying a test battery that allows robust inference to be made on the stationarity and cointegration issue trend stationarity and no cointegration are tested using new country by country and panel tests not previously applied in this setting new results for country by country and panel tests of non stationarity and cointegration are presented our unit root and trend stationarity results indicate that both health expenditure and gdp are non stationary the no cointegration and cointegration results indicate that health expenditure and gdp are cointegrated

health and schooling investments in africa this paper first outlines an organizing framework for considering how health and schooling affect labor productivity and growth and how household and community factors can in turn affect the demand for these human capital investments both cross country growth models and various aspects of microeconomic studies of individual productivity as related to education and health are discussed the conclusion offers some tentative leads for policy in this area based on existing research and an agenda for future research

health behavior health knowledge and schooling the positive correlation between schooling and good health is well documented one explanation is that schooling helps people choose healthier life styles by improving their knowledge of the relationship between health behaviors and health outcomes that is schooling improves the household s allocative efficiency in producing health this empirical study uses direct measures of health knowledge to test this explanation part of the relationship between schooling and the consumption of cigarettes alcohol and exercise is explained by differences in health knowledge however most of schooling s effects on health behavior remain after differences in knowledge are controlled for

does increasing women s schooling raise the schooling of the next generation the positive cross sectional relationship between the schooling of mothers and their children is substantially biased upward due to correlations between schooling and heritable ability as well as assortative mating an increase in the schooling of women would not have beneficial effects in terms of the schooling of children increased maternal schooling leads to reduced home time for mothers anticipating the consequences of investing in women s schooling requires attention to the role that schooling plays in the marriage market as well as to opportunities in the labor market for women

are estimates of calorie income fxelasticities too high a recalibration of the plausible range abstract the wide range of calorie income elasticities in the literature results in large part from the particular calorie and income variables used for estimation elasticities across four estimation techniques and four calorie income variable pairs for a sample of philippine farm households ranged from 0 03 to 0 59 estimates associated with calorie availability are biased upwards first because random errors in measuring food purchases are transmitted by construction both to calorie availability and total expenditures and second because the residual difference between family calorie intake and household calorie availability will often increase with income the calorie intake total expenditure variable pair gives the preferred elasticity estimate in the 0 08 0 14 range

the effects of inflation and taxes on growth investments and replacement policies this paper investigates the effect of inflation and taxes on the optimal duration of investments the main conclusion is that inflation does not always increase the duration of investments for example in the case of equipment with a short replacement cycle increased inflation tends to decrease the duration of the cycle contrary to the common theoretical analysis these results imply that inflation may increase some forms of capital investments

the effect of income on demand for food in poor countries are our food consumption databases giving us reliable estimates abstract cross section estimates of income elasticities for food staples in the aggregate based on quantity information from household food expenditure surveys are often in the 0 3 0 6 range it is shown that differences in per capita calorie intakes across income groups implied by these income elasticities are grossly inconsistent with observed differences in bodyweights moreover time series data frequently indicate that national per capita consumption of food staples in the aggregate remains constant even as per capita gross national product rises substantially cross section income elasticity estimates are biased upwards due to the failure of food expenditure surveys to undertake an accurate accounting of food transfers from high to low income groups biases which are not generated by survey techniques which record food intakes directly

mortality decline and long run economic growth this paper examines the impacts of mortality decline on long run growth in a dynastic family two sector growth model with social security a rise in longevity has direct effects on fertility human capital investment and growth as well as indirect effects through increasing unfunded social security contributions both the direct and indirect effects depend on the relative strength of the tastes for the number and welfare of children and may have different signs the net effects of rising longevity on fertility tend to be negative but positive on human capital investment and growth c 2001 elsevier science s a all rights reserved

inflation taxation and interest rates this paper demonstrates that the response of nominal interest rates to changes in inflationary expectations should lie between that predicted by the fisher and darby effects the exact nature of the response will depend on the relative size of the income and capital gains tax rates and the relative size of the derivatives of investment and savings to their respective after tax real rates the other major conclusion of this paper is that capital gains taxation offsets the negative effect on investment produced by treating depreciation on a historic rather than a replacement cost basis in the 1960s and early 1970s the economics profession and the financial community increasingly accepted irving fisher s analysis of the effect of changes in anticipated inflation on the rate of interest in the last several years darby 4 and feldstein 5 have elaborated fisher s theory and have arrived at the conclusion that in a world with taxes an increase in inflationary expectations should result in a more than proportional increase in the nominal rate of interest since investors base their investing and saving decisions on the after tax and not the pretax expected consequences of their actions darby 4 has argued that if income taxes are proportional at rate t and interest receipts are taxable and interest payments are tax deductible the real after tax interest rate is

market work and household work as deterrents to schooling in bangladesh summary this research investigates factors that deter bangladeshi children from attending school including market work and household work examined separately the likelihood that a child will be continuously in school is estimated using separate logistic regression models for younger and older boys and girls in urban and rural areas we find that child labor decreases the probability of continuous schooling we demonstrate the importance of examining separate demographic groups as well as separate types of work finally we test the robustness of our results using three alternative measures of schooling and find that our results are robust to these three measures

early childhood nutrition and academic achievement a longitudinal analysis abstract many policymakers propose early childhood nutrition programs as a way to increase students academic achievement this paper investigates the nutrition learning nexus using a unique longitudinal data set that follows a large sample of filipino children from birth until the end of their primary education we find that better nourished children perform significantly better in school partly because they enter school earlier and thus have more time to learn but mostly because of greater learning productivity per year of schooling our cost benefit analysis suggests that a dollar invested in an early childhood nutrition program in a developing country could potentially return at least three dollars worth of gains in academic achievement and perhaps much more

on optimal asset abandonment and replacement numerous studies in recent years have emphasized the importance of accounting properly for abandoment value in capital budgeting see 1 4 7 10 and 11 for a variety of reasons a project need be neither physically exhausted nor have negative cash flows to be abandoned robichek and van home 10 suggested that a project should be abandoned in any period in which the present value of future cash flows does not exceed its abandonment value in a modification of this rule dyl and long 4 proposed that the firm give consideration to all possible future abandonment opportunities they argued that abandonment need not occur at the earliest possible date that the abandonment condition is satisfied but rather at the date that yields the highest npv over all future abandonment possibilities a generalization of these models was offered by bonini 1 who developed a dynamic programming model to analyze investment projects with abandonment possibilities and uncertain cash flows more recently gaumnitz and emery 7 compared the abandonment decision to the like for like replacement decision and noted that the correct model for a particular case depends on the suitability of the assumptions

the postwar stability of the fisher effect most research concerning the fisher relationship has concentrated on the magnitude and significance of the response of nominal interest rates to anticipated inflation recently attention has shifted to the stability of that response according to previous estimates the impact of anticipated inflation on interest rates varies substantially over time by extending a standard model to include tax and aggregate supply shock effects we are able to reduce such instability considerably our results also reveal that increased foreign demand for bonds lowers the interest rate

urban spatial development with durable but replaceable capital the theory of urban spatial development until recently has been primarily a static theory of economic equilibrium the models of alonso l mills 6 and muth 7 determine a complete spatial equilibrium between the supply and demand for urban land the study of growth or change in such models therefore has been limited exclusively to comparative statics wheaton 8 it should be clear that the central and in many respects unrealistic assumption of such models is that housing capital is neither physically nor economically durable without durability there is no opportunity cost to old capital no barrier to change and no history to an urban area within such a framework a common set of conclusions emerges regarding urban spatial structure residential density and the price per unit of land decline monotonically from the location of employment a greater population results in higher density at all locations while increases in income or decreases in the cost of travel create a more steeply sloped density and price gradient in the last few years there has been a growing awareness that the equilibrium portrayed by such models does not correctly reflect the process of urban development theoretical papers by anas 2 31 and brueckner 4 and an empirical model by harrison and kain 5 develop an alternative theory of urban spatial development in which the process of growth is explicitly modeled and in which capital is completely durable in their models the spatial development of cities occurs incrementally over time in successive rings from the center of employment outwards the development of each ring is done with myopic foresight and is therefore determined exclusively by market conditions at the time of development once built

is health care really a luxury much of the work which has led to a widely held view that the income elasticity of health care spending exceeds one has been based on international cross section data or on pooled cross sections and time series in this paper we re examine this view in the context of long run equilibrium relationships between non stationary time series possibly including autonomous trends our results cast doubt upon the usefulness of pooling and upon the notion of an elasticity above one

will developing country nutrition improve with income a case study for rural south india aggregate estimates of food expenditure are consistent with such a possibility implying income expenditure elasticities close to one however the high degree of aggregation at which such estimates are made means that the considerable increase in price per nutrient as income increases is ignored and the nutrient elasticities are therefore overstated estimates for a rural south indian sample indicate that this bias is considerable and that the true nutrient elasticities with respect to income may be close to zero

returns to university education evidence from a dutch institutional reform in 1982 the duration of university education in the netherlands was reduced from five to four years this institutional reform is here used to estimate the causal effect of one year of university education on wages i find that the fifth year of university education increased wages by 7 9 this differential is found by comparing wages of cohorts of graduates enrolling five years before and five years after the reform in a difference in differences approach

intergenerational trade longevity and economic growth we develop an overlapping generations model of endogenous growth in which human capital is the engine of growth and the generations are linked through material and emotional interdependencies within the family parents invest in their children to achieve both old age support care and emotional gratification and material support from children is determined through self enforcing implicit contracts we show that optimal intergenerational trade can then lead to maximization of growth opportunities our model produces a theory of the demographic transition linking longevity fertility and economic growth we also show that while population aging may raise the growth rate an increase in young age longevity is likely to produce a greater increase in the growth rate and a reduction in the fertility rate in a growth equilibrium these predictions and the model s implications concerning the behavior of private savings during the takeoff period appear consistent with empirical evidence

health nutrition and economic development the relationship between health and economic development is explored focusing on nutrition based health indicators the spotlight is placed on the inter related feedbacks between the influence of health on productivity on one hand and the influence of income on health status on the other disentangling causality in these relationships has preoccupied much of the literature we evaluate different empirical strategies that have been adopted and assess the results there is now a body of evidence based on careful empirical studies that demonstrates a causal relationship between health and labor productivity there is also evidence that at least among the very poor additional income is spent on improved nutrition there are two issues that have received little attention although we argue they are likely to be very important first measurement of health is discussed in detail evidence is presented on how taking into account differences in the extent of measurement error is critical for interpreting the impact of health on wages the same theme emerges in studies of the effect of income on health specifically calorie intake the key role of non linearities in these relationships is highlighted and we demonstrate that a good deal of the variation in estimates of income elasticities of demand for calories can be ascribed to the role of measurement and functional form authors

government health spending and growth in a model of endogenous longevity abstract we present a model of endogenous longevity that results in a non monotonic effect of government spending on economic growth the key element is the effectiveness of publicly provided health care in enhancing life expectancy

the rent gap re examined rent gap theory is re examined in view of bourassa s recent critique the critique is found to be flawed on three accounts it equates an abstract concept actual land rent with a concrete event

health capital and cross country variation in income per capita in the mankiw romer weil model abstract this paper examines the effects of incorporating a proxy for health capital in mankiw romer and weil s empirical growth model results suggest a stronger and more robust relationship between income per capita and health capital than between income per capita and educational human capital

aids and economic growth a human capital approach abstract using a model that combines growth and health capital equations this study analyses the impact of hiv aids on economic growth the econometric results indicate that the epidemic s effects have been substantial in africa the marginal impact on income per capita of a 1 increase in hiv prevalence rate is minus 0 59 even in countries with lower hiv prevalence rates the marginal impacts are non trivial hence while the human and social costs of the hiv aids epidemic are major causes for concern these results indicate that the macroeconomic affects of the hiv aids epidemic are important

life expectancy and endogenous growth we consider an overlapping generations model with uncertain lifetime and endogenous growth individuals have to choose the length of time devoted to schooling before starting to work we show that it depends positively on life expectancy but that the positive effect of a longer life on growth could be offset by a decrease in the participation rate dynamics are characterized by a delay differential equation and human capital converges with oscillations to a balanced growth path

higher education and economic growth in africa abstract this paper uses panel data over the 1960 2000 period a modified neoclassical growth equation and a dynamic panel estimator to investigate the effect of higher education human capital on economic growth in african countries we find that all levels of education human capital including higher education human capital have positive and statistically significant effect on the growth rate of per capita income in african counties our result differs from those of earlier research that find no significant relationship between higher education human capital and income growth we estimate the growth elasticity of higher education human capital to be about 0 09 an estimate that is twice as large as the growth impact of physical capital investment while this is likely to be an overestimate of the growth impact of higher education it is robust to different specifications and points to the need for african countries to effectively use higher education human capital in growth policies

heterogeneity in returns to schooling econometric evidence from ethiopia this paper investigates whether returns to schooling in ethiopia vary across the wage distribution of individuals to do so it adopts an instrumental variables quantile regression framework that allows for both endogeneity of schooling resulting from unmeasured ability and possible heterogeneity in the impact of schooling the empirical estimates indicate that education contributes more to the earnings of individuals at a lower end of the income distribution

the impact of farmers health and nutritional status on their productivity and efficiency evidence from ethiopia this article focuses on the link between agricultural productivity and health and nutrition status of peasants in ethiopia the data come from the first round of the ethiopian rural household survey conducted in 1994 the sites selected were those in which farmers practice ox plow cultivation of cereals a stochastic frontier approach was adopted for the agricultural production the findings of the study show that the distance to the source of water as well as nutrition and morbidity status affect agricultural productivity the market wage rate is also very responsive to the weight for height as well as the body mass index and height in a context where separability between consumption and production decisions of the household is rejected elasticities of labor productivity with respect to nutritional status are noted to be strong and similar in technology estimates and wage equations moreover returns to investment in nutrition are clearly high in the ethiopian context overall the results indicate substantial loss in output due to technical inefficiency even after accounting for the health and nutrition of workers

policies to stimulate growth should we invest in health or education empirical studies in the literature on economic growth have focused on the affect of education and yet knowles and owen 1995 1997 found health proxied by life expectancy to be highly statistically significant with education having a modest role this study extends their model and employs variables that are more conducive to policy formulation calorific intake and school enrolment ratios results suggest that reducing undernutrition would only make a modest contribution to economic growth while increasing enrolment ratios especially secondary has a positive and more significant effect policies to increase economic growth should favour investments in education over health

modeling the effects of health on economic growth abstract this paper investigates the effects of health indicators such as adult survival rates asr on gdp growth rates at 5 year intervals in several countries panel data were analyzed on gdp series based on purchasing power adjustments and on exchange rates first we developed a framework for modeling the inter relationships between gdp growth rates and explanatory variables by re examining the life expectancy income relationship second models for growth rates were estimated taking into account the interaction between asr and lagged gdp level issues of endogeneity and reverse causality were addressed lastly we computed confidence intervals for the effect of asr on growth rate and applied a test for parameter stability the results showed positive effects of asr on gdp growth rates in low income countries

the demand for food and calories we investigate nutrition and expenditure in rural maharashtra in india we estimate that the elasticity of calorie consumption with respect to total expenditure is 0 3 0 5 a range that is in accord with conventional wisdom the elasticity declines only slowly with levels of living and is far from the value of zero suggested by a recent revisionist literature in these indian data the calories necessary for a day s activity cost less than 5 percent of the daily wage which makes it implausible that income is constrained by nutrition rather than the other way around

inflation the interest rate and the required return on equity miller has analyzed capital structure in the presence of both corporate and personal taxes the present work investigates the effect of inflation on both interest rates and equity re turns when the miller equilibrium condition is employed in a loanable funds model both an interest rate effect and a redistribution effect are derived the interest rate effect forces the responsiveness of the interest rate to the inflation rate to be below that hypothesized by darby however the redistribution effect may change this responsiveness in either direc tion i introduction the number of academic studies concerning inflation has grown in tandem with the price level researchers have considered the effect of the rate of infla tion on the interest rate the simplest models show that without taxes a 1 per cent rise in the rate of anticipated inflation increases nominal interest rates by 1 percent recently the effect of taxation on the relationship between interest rates and inflation has been investigated for example darby 5 has pointed out that a 1 percent increase in the inflation rate should increase the after tax interest rate by 1 percent imply ing a greater movement in pre tax interest rate this result has been confirmed and extended by gandolfi 13 feldstein 8 and others however empirical evidence has not supported the theoretical work mentioned above beginning with irving fisher many researchers have found that a 1 percent increase in the inflation rate yields less than a 1 percent increase in the pre tax interest rate the results of feldstein eckstein 9 and fama 7 suggest a one to one relationship to our knowledge there is no convincing evidence of a greater than one to one relationship in addition to the lack of empirical validation there is at least one conceptual shortcoming in past studies of inflation and interest rates most theories of corporate capital structure are not suitable to macroeconomic models for university of pennsylvania philadelphia pa 19104 this paper has benefited from the com ments of m flannery g gerber r papetti a santomero and an anonymous jfqa referee

vintage human capital demographic trends and endogenous growth we study how economic growth is affected by demographics in an overlapping generations model with a realistic survival law individuals optimally chose the dates at which they leave school to enter the labor market and at which they retire endogenous growth arises thanks to the accumulation of generation specific human capital favorable shifts in the survival probabilities always induce longer schooling and later retirement but have an ambiguous effect on growth the relationship between the growth of population and per capita growth is hump shaped increases in longevity can be responsible for a switch from a no growth regime to a sustained growth regime and for a positive relationship between fertility and growth to vanish

the effects of inflation and income taxes on interest rates some new evidence this paper reexamines the empirical relation between inflation and interest rates concentrating on the tax effect proposed by darby and feldstein using the random walk intercept model relative responses of taxable yields and tax exempt yields to expected infla tion are estimated the results show that for the sample period 1953 1982 the nominal yields on treasury bills rise at a rate greater than one for one with expected inflation while the nominal yields on default free municipal bonds rise approximately one for one with expected inflation thus the tax adjusted fisher hypothesis by darby and feldstein is empirically supported the components of treasury bills are also extracted and their variances are compared it is shown that variation of expected inflation is not overwhelmingly larger than that of the after tax real rate therefore on an after tax basis changes in the real rate explain a substantial portion of changes in the nominal rate of interest

returns to investment in education a global update the author updates compilations of rate of return estimates to investment in education published since 1985 and discusses methodological issues surrounding those estimates some key patterns among the three main levels of education primary education continues to exhibit the highest social profitability in all world regions private returns are considerably higher than social returns because of the public subsidization of education the degree of public subsidy increases with the level of education which is regressive social and private returns at all levels generally decline by the level of a country s per capita income overall the returns to female education are higher than those to male education but at individual levels of education the pattern is more mixed the returns to the academic secondary school track are higher than the vocational track since unit cost of vocational education is much higher and the returns for those who work in the private competitive sector of the economy are higher than in the public noncompetitive sector and the returns in the self employment unregulated sector of the economy are higher than in the dependent employment sector controversies in the literature are discussed in the light of the new evidence the undisputable and universal positive correlation between education and earnings can be interpreted in many ways the causation issue on whether education really affects earnings can be answered only with experimental data generated by randomly exposing different people to various amounts of education given the fact that moral and pragmatic considerations prevent the generation of such pure data researchers have to make do with indirect inferences or natural experiments some have been attempted the author looks at the research on overeducation or surplus schooling the conclusions reinforce earlier patterns they confirm that primary education continues to be the number one investment priority in developing countries they also show that educating females is marginally more profitable than educating males that the academic secondary school curriculum is a better investment than the technical vocational tract and that the returns to education obey the same rules as investment in conventional capital that is they decline as investment is expanded