the labor market four years into the crisis assessing structural explanations four years after the beginning of the great recession the labor market remains historically weak many observers have concluded that structural impediments to recovery bear some of the blame the author reviews such structural explanations but after analyzing u s data on unemployment and productivity he finds there is little evidence supporting these hypotheses he finds that the bulk of the evidence is more consistent with the hypothesis that continued poor performance is primarily attributable to shortfalls in the aggregate demand for labor

the general equilibrium impacts of unemployment insurance evidence from a large online job board abstract during the great recession u s unemployment benefits were extended by up to 73 weeks theory predicts that extensions increase unemployment by discouraging job search a partial equilibrium effect using data from the large job board careerbuilder com i find that a 10 increase in benefit duration decreased state level job applications by 1 but had no robust effect on job vacancies job seekers thus faced reduced competition for jobs a general equilibrium effect calibration implies that the general equilibrium effect reduces the impact of unemployment insurance on unemployment by 39

separations sorting and cyclical unemployment abstract this paper establishes a new fact about the compositional changes in the pool of unemployed over the us business cycle using microdata from the current population survey for the years 1962 2012 it documents that in recessions the pool of unemployed shifts toward workers with high wages in their previous job and that these shifts are driven by the high cyclicality of separations for high wage workers the paper finds that standard theories of wage setting and unemployment have difficulty in explaining these patterns and evaluates a number of alternative theories that do better in accounting for the new fact jel e24 e32 j31 j63 j64

promoting renewable energy sources for heating and cooling in eu 27 countries abstract in addition to public policies aimed at improving the energy efficiency of buildings eu authorities have also promoted the use of renewable energy sources for heating and cooling uses res h c this paper analyses the main policy measures implemented in eu 27 countries up to 2009 i e subsidies tax incentives financial support and feed in tariffs twenty three member states mss have developed some of these policy measures the most widespread measure is the subsidy 22 mss have implemented these because from a political point of view subsidies provide a straightforward approach to promote the use of res h c secondly tax incentives have been used for reducing investment costs and making renewable energy profitable thirdly financial incentives and feed in tariffs have been used sparingly while financial incentives might be used more extensively for promoting res h c if they are accompanied by other policy measures feed in tariffs are not likely to be implemented significantly in the future because this measure is not designed for household heat producers

job polarization and jobless recoveries job polarization refers to the shrinking share of employment in middle skill routine occupations experienced over the past 35 years jobless recoveries refers to the slow rebound in aggregate empl

the censored newsvendor and the optimal acquisition of information this paper investigates the effect of demand censoring on the optimal policy in newsvendor inventory models with general parametric demand distributions and unknown parameter values we show that the newsvendor problem withobservable lost sales reduces to a sequence of single period problems while the newsvendor problem withunobservable lost sales requires a dynamic analysis using a bayesian markov decision process approach we show that the optimalin ventory level in the presence of censored demand ishigher than would be determined using a bayesian myopic policy we explore the economic rationality for this observation and illustrate it with numerical examples

on the censored newsvendor and the optimal acquisition of information we have read ding et al 2002 referred to hereafter as dpb with great interest dpb con ains two main results theorem a claims that the myopic inventory level is a lower bound on the optimal inventory level and theo rem b attempts to quantify the marginal expected value of information however there are mistakes in the proof of theorem a the result itself is correct a proof is given in lu et al 2004 furthermore one of the erroneous expressions in dpb s proof leads to an error in the marginal expected value of information in theorem b we now provide more details the equation numbers unless specified otherwise refer to the appendix of dpb available at the operations research home page http or pubs informs org the main error in the proof of theorem a is the follow ing if a x and b x are two functions of the variable jc then the derivative of a x b x with respect to x is d r x m da x db x a x b x b x a x dpb s mistake in essence is to omit the second term more specifically a key step in proving theorem a is inequality 35

renewable energy in the heating sector in austria with particular reference to the region of upper austria the heating sector has been neglected in energy policies for quite some time especially on the european level only recently with the implementation of the european directive 2009 28 ec the sector has gained higher attention the objective of this paper is to provide an overview of the heat market in austria and of the current status and future prospects of renewable energy in the heat sector res h up to 2030 despite the growing energy demand the share of renewable energy in the total energy demand for space heating and hot water increased from about 20 in 1970 to about 34 in 2008 this is mainly due to ambitious res h support instruments and regional policy targets for example the government of the region of upper austria has implemented a target of 100 res h share in the space heating and hot water sector until the year 2030 however the national renewable energy action plan for 2020 foresees only moderate growth rates for res h compared to recent market growth and scenarios in literature due to the ambitious targets and support schemes of regional governments it seems likely that res h deployment could growstronger than stated in the action plan

a matching model with endogenous skill requirements we consider a labor market in which workers differ in their abilities and jobs differ in their skill requirements the distribution of worker abilities is exogenous but we model the choice of skill requirements by firms high skill jobs produce more output than low skill jobs but high skill jobs require high skill workers and thus are more difficult to fill we use a matching model together with a nash bargaining approach to wage setting to determine the equilibrium mix of job types along with the equilibrium relationship between worker and job characteristics wages and unemployment

housing booms and busts labor market opportunities and college attendance we study how the recent housing boom and bust affected college enrollment during the 2000s we exploit cross city variation in local housing booms which improved labor market opportunities for young men and women we find that the boom lowered college enrollment with effects concentrated at two year colleges the decline in enrollment during the boom was generally reversed during the bust however attainment remains persistently low for particular cohorts suggesting that reduced educational attainment is an enduring effect of the recent housing cycle the housing boom can account for approximately 25 percent of the recent slowdown in college attainment

trends in quality adjusted skill premia in the united states 1960 2000 this paper presents new evidence that increases in college enrollment lead to a decline in the average quality of college graduates between 1960 and 2000 resulting in a decrease of 8 percentage points in the college premium the standard demand and supply framework katz and murphy 1992 card and lemieux 2001 can qualitatively account for the trend in the college and age premia over this period but the quantitative adjustments that need to be made to account for changes in quality are substantial furthermore the standard interpretation of the supply effect can be misleading if the quality of college workers is not controlled for to illustrate the importance of these adjustments we reanalyze the problem studied in card and lemieux 2001 who observe that the rise in the college premium in the 1980s occurred mainly for young workers and attribute this to the differential behavior of the supply of skill between the young and the old our results show that changes in quality are as important as changes in prices to explain the phenomenon they document

re regulating district heating in sweden abstract the electricity market reform in sweden has had great but little discussed consequences for the district heating industry formerly regulated municipal district heating companies are now obliged to operate in a commercial manner and pricing previously regulated by the local authority act is now free the swedish competition authority has on several occasions mentioned to the government that a price regulation ought to be reinstated since district heating is a natural monopoly and in many cases in a dominant market position on local heating markets the competition authority also believes that cross subsidies occur in multi service utilities i e between monopolistic district heating and competitive electricity production and sales municipal district heating is often organised together with electricity sales and production in a municipally owned limited company many municipalities have recently sold their energy utilities to private or state owned commercial actors thus creating private monopolies exempt from price regulations in 1999 the national energy administration stem was given the task to monitor the district heating market and to suggest means to come to terms with these issues stem does not favour a price regulation as the first measure stem also has an operative goal of increasing the use of district heating as a means of reducing electricity dependence in the heating of premises here an interesting conflict of interest exists between the two government authorities we argue that the differences in opinion go beyond the actual tasks given to the authorities but rather depend on perspectives economics and consumer perspective versus an engineering environmental and production perspective we would also like to encourage a broad discussion about the state of district heating and its regulatory condition and that neither economical models nor energy models are taken for granted

renewable heating perspectives and the impact of policy instruments in the light of the eu directive for renewable energy 2009 28 ec this paper deals with the question how various policy instruments could impact the development of renewable heating technologies the paper applies the simulation model invert ee lab for the building related heat demand in selected european countries austria lithuania and united kingdom the resulting scenarios up to 2030 are compared to res heat targets from literature stakeholder consultation processes and the targets in the national renewable energy action plans submitted by eu member states in 2010 the results demonstrate that use obligations for renewable heating can be effective in achieving res heat market growth however in order to attain a balanced technology mix and more ambitious targets policy packages are required combining use obligations with economic incentives and accompanying measures technology specific conclusions are derived moreover conclusions indicate that the action plans are not always consistent with policy measures in place or under discussion

learning consumer tastes through dynamic assortments how should a firm modify its product assortment over time when learning about consumer tastes in this paper we study dynamic assortment decisions in a horizontally differentiated product category for which consumers diverse tastes can be represented as locations on a hotelling line we presume that the firm knows all possible consumer locations comprising a finite set but does not know their probability distribution we model this problem as a discrete time dynamic program each period the firm chooses an assortment and sets prices to maximize the total expected profit over a finite horizon given its subjective beliefs over consumer tastes the consumers then choose a product from the assortment that maximizes their own utility the firm observes sales which provide censored information on consumer tastes and it updates beliefs in a bayesian fashion there is a recurring trade off between the immediate profits from sales in the current period exploitation and the informational gains to be exploited in all future periods exploration we show that one can partially order assortments based on their information content and that in any given period the optimal assortment cannot be less informative than the myopically optimal assortment this result is akin to the well known stock more result in censored newsvendor problems with the newsvendor learning about demand through sales when lost sales are not observable we demonstrate that it can be optimal for the firm to alternate between exploration and exploitation and even offer assortments that lead to losses in the current period in order to gain information on consumer tastes we also develop a bayesian conjugate model that reduces the state space of the dynamic program and study value of learning using this conjugate model

excess worker reallocation workers face a trade off between macroeconomic and individual incentives to work in different occupations industries namely between search frictions and personal comparative advantages workers endowed with heterogeneous multi dimensional skills search for jobs that require different skill combinations in equilibrium specialized individuals contact few selected types of vacancies where they are likely to be hired those with weak comparative advantages are seldom chosen among competing applicants thus seek any job type in a tight labour market comparative advantages dominate waiting costs offsetting labour mobility across industries occupations excess worker reallocation is lower and matches are more successful consistently with direct and indirect evidence

recall and unemployment abstract we document in the survey of income and program participation covering the period 1990 2013 that a surprisingly large share of workers return to their previous employer after a jobless spe

stalking information bayesian inventory management with unobserved lost sales retailers are frequently uncertain about the underlying demand distribution of a new product when taking the empirical bayesian approach of scarf 1959 they simultaneously stock the product over time and learn about the distribution assuming that unmet demand is lost and unobserved this learning must be based on observing sales rather than demand which differs from sales in the event of a stockout using the framework and results of braden and freimer 1991 the cumulative learning about the underlying demand distribution is captured by two parameters a scale parameter that reflects the predicted size of the underlying market and a shape parameter that indicates both the size of the market and the precision with which the underlying distribution is known an important simplification result of scarf 1960 and azoury 1985 which allows the scale parameter to be removed from the optimization is shown to extend to this setting we present examples that reveal two interesting phenomena 1 a retailer may hope that compared to stocking out realized demand will be strictly less than the stock level even though stocking out would signal a stochastically larger demand distribution and 2 it can be optimal to drop a product after a period of successful sales we also present specific conditions under which the following results hold 1 investment in excess stocks to enhance learning will occur in every dynamic problem and 2 a product is never dropped after a period of poor sales the model is extended to multiple independent markets whose distributions depend proportionately on a single unknown parameter we argue that smaller markets should be given better service as an effective means of acquiring information

internet job search and unemployment durations after decades of stability the technologies used by workers to locate new jobs began to change rapidly with the diffusion of internet access in the late 1990 s which types of persons incorporated the internet into their job search strategy and did searching for work on line help these workers find new jobs faster we address these questions using measures of internet job search derived from the december 1998 and august 2000 cps computer and internet supplements matched with job search outcomes from subsequent cps files we find that internet searchers are positively selected on observables but negatively selected on unobservables a beneficial unemployment duration reducing causal effect of internet job search is consistent with our estimates only if negative selection on unobservables is especially strong in other words only if the population of on line resumes is strongly adversely selected

the establishment level behavior of vacancies and hiring this paper is the first to study vacancies hires and vacancy yields at the establishment level in the job openings and labor turnover survey a large sample of u s employers to interpret the data we develop a simple model that identifies the flow of new vacancies and the job filling rate for vacant positions the job filling rate moves counter to aggregate employment but rises steeply with employer growth rates in the cross section it falls with employer size rises with worker turnover rates and varies by a factor of four across major industry groups we also develop evidence that the employer level hiring technology exhibits constant returns and that at the employer level and that employers rely heavily on other instruments in addition to vacancies as they vary hires we also develop evidence that effective recruiting intensity per vacancy varies over time accounting for about 41 of movements in aggregate hires in the 2007 to 2009 period our evidence and analysis provide useful inputs for assessing developing and calibrating theoretical models of search matching and hiring in the labor market

upskilling do employers demand greater skill when workers are plentiful using a proprietary database of online job postings we find that education and experience requirements rose during the great recession these increases were larger in states and occupations that e

worker turnover at the firm level and crowding out of lower educated workers this paper investigates whether employers exploit cyclical downturns to improve the average skill level of their work force we use a unique dataset that contains information on workers jobs as well as firm characteristics our findings are that at each job level mainly lower educated workers leave during downturns furthermore at each level of job complexity workers with a higher education are not more productive than lower educated workers we find no evidence that higher educated workers crowd out lower educated workers during recessions

immigration and inequality immigration is often viewed as a proximate cause of the rising wage gap between highand low skilled workers nevertheless there is controversy over the appropriate theoretical and empirical framework for measuring the presumed effect and over the precise magnitudes involved this paper offers an overview and synthesis of existing knowledge on the relationship between immigration and inequality focusing on evidence from cross city comparisons in the u s while some researchers have claimed that a cross city research design is inherently flawed i argue that the evidence from cross city comparisons is remarkably consistent with recent findings based on aggregate time series data in particular cross city and aggregate time series comparisons provide support for three key conclusions 1 workers with below high school education are perfect substitutes for those with a high school education 2 high school equivalent and college equivalent workers are imperfect substitutes with an elasticity of substitution on the order of 2 3 within education groups immigrants and natives are imperfect substitutes together these results imply that the average impacts of recent immigrant inflows on the relative wages of u s natives are small the effects on overall wage inequality including natives and immigrants are larger reflecting the concentration of immigrants in the tails of the skill distribution and higher residual inequality among immigrants than natives even so immigration accounts for a small share 5 of the increase in u s wage inequality between 1980 and 2000

battle scars the puzzling decline in employment and rise in disability receipt among vietnam era veterans using current population survey and us army administrative data we document that between 2000 and 2010 the employment rate of vietnam era veterans fell markedly relative to non veterans of the same cohorts while simultaneously their enrollment increased steeply in the veterans disability compensation dc program which provides healthcare and transfer payments to veterans with service connected disabilities thirty percent of vietnam era army veterans enrolled in dc in 2006 received benefits for post traumatic stress disorder with median annual payments of 25 500 the declining employment and rising transfer payments to vietnam era veterans underscore the long term private and public costs of wartime service potentially stemming from both adverse health consequences and policies that have expanded benefits eligibility