who would be left behind by enhanced private school choice abstract debate over school choice is central to many discussions of public elementary and secondary educational reform the debate has largely focused on conceptual arguments rather than careful empirical research that attempts to sort out competing claims an important unresolved issue is the question of cream skimming who will move and who will be left behind as a result of enhanced school choice this paper uses data from the national educational longitudinal survey nels 88 to estimate a model of public private school choice which is used to simulate who would likely leave public schools as a result of enhanced private school choice building upon the work of k train et al 1987 the review of economics and statistics 69 383 391 we employ a probit model with latent explanatory variables to account for the unobserved attitudes of parents and their children regarding education the model allows us to consider such latent interests in education as well as the academic and socioeconomic characteristics of those students who would likely switch to private schools our findings indicate that concerns about bright flight or academic cream skimming in response to increased school choice appear to be overstated however we estimate that there would be substantially more economic and racial segregation of students as movers tend to be white and have higher incomes than those who are left behind

on the political economy of educational vouchers abstract two significant challenges hamper the analyses of the collective choice of educational vouchers one is the multi dimensional choice set arising from the interdependence of the voucher public education spending and taxation second even absent a voucher preferences over public spending are not single peaked a middling level of public school spending may be less attractive to a household than either high public school spending or private education coupled with low public spending we show that besley and coate s 1997 representative democracy model provides a viable approach to overcome these hurdles we provide a complete characterization of equilibria with an endogenous voucher a voucher is adopted in political equilibrium provided the coefficient of variation of income is sufficiently small we undertake a parallel quantitative analysis and we find that no voucher arises in equilibrium for the u s income distribution which exhibits too much heterogeneity for a tighter income distribution including those in douglas county colorado where a voucher was recently adopted our model predicts a positive voucher public support for a not too large voucher arises because the cross subsidy to public school expenditure from those switching to private schools outweighs the subsidy to those who attend private school in the absence of a voucher

do better schools matter parental valuation of elementary education the evaluation of numerous school reforms requires an understanding of the value of better schools given the difficulty of calculating the relationship between school quality and student outcomes i turn to another method and use house prices to infer the value parents place on school quality i look within school districts at houses located on attendance district boundaries houses then differ only by the elementary school the child attends i thereby effectively remove the variation in neighborhoods taxes and school spending i find that parents are willing to pay 2 5 percent more for a 5 percent increase in test scores this finding is robust to a number of sensitivity checks

life is unfair in latin america but does it matter for growth summary i analyze the effect of inequality on economic growth in latin america where inequality is measured as the area of family farms as a percentage of the total area of agricultural holdings using data from 18 latin american countries during 1960 2004 i find that inequality has a nonlinear effect on economic growth overall for the countries included in this analysis the share of family farms has a positive significant effect on economic growth these findings are robust to controlling for several factors using a different indicator of inequality land gini and addressing for endogeneity

credit rationing in small scale enterprises special microenterprise programmes in ecuador small scale enterprises receive several forms of aid but many are denied access to formal loans a demand and supply model is estimated to analyse the factors lenders use to ration credit in special microenterprise programmes the results reveal that suppliers do not discriminate against less profitable enterprises and entrepreneurs who have not completed their high school education however these entrepreneurs have a smaller demand for external finance from the microenterprise programmes than more profitable enterprises and entrepreneurs who have graduated from high school

house prices and the provision of local public services capitalization under school choice programs abstract while the theoretical public finance literature argues that house prices should be influenced by the demand for local public services there is little direct evidence concerning changes in house prices when these services are altered previous empirical studies have relied on cross sectional identification of the relationship between house prices and variables that may proxy for the perceived quality of local public services this paper instead examines a policy change the adoption of a public school choice program to identify the capitalization effects associated with the diminished importance of school district boundaries using data from inter district choice in minnesota i find that residential properties appreciate significantly in school districts where students are able to transfer to preferred school districts whereas residential property values decline in districts that accept transfer students these general equilibrium effects also influence school districts local property tax revenues mitigating the incentive for schools to improve in order to attract or retain students

competition between private and public schools vouchers and peer group effects a theoretical and computational model with tax financed tuition free public schools and competitive tuition financed private schools is developed students differ by ability and income achievement depends on own ability and on peers abilities equilibrium has a strict hierarchy of school qualities and two dimensional student sorting with stratification by ability and income in private schools high ability low income students receive tuition discounts while low ability high income students pay tuition premia tuition vouchers increase the relative size of the private sector and the extent of student sorting and benefit high ability students relative to low ability students

estimating the general equilibrium benefits of large changes in spatially delineated public goods the purpose of this article is to report a new approach for measuring the general equilibrium willingness to pay for large changes in spatially delineated public goods such as air quality we estimate the parameters of a locational equilibrium model and compute equilibria for alternative scenarios characterizing the availability of public goods within a system of communities welfare measures take into consideration the adjustments of households in equilibrium to nonmarginal changes in public goods the framework is used to analyze willingness to pay for reductions in ozone concentrations in southern california between 1990 and 1995

why do households without children support local public schools linking house price capitalization to school spending while residents receive similar benefits from many local government programs only about one third of all households have children in public schools we argue that capitalization of school spending into house prices can encourage even childless residents to support spending on schools we identify a proxy for the extent of capitalization the supply of land available for new development and show that towns in massachusetts with little undeveloped land have larger changes in house prices in response to a plausibly exogenous spending shock towns with little available land also spend more on schools we extend these results using data from school districts in 46 states showing that per pupil spending is positively related to the percentage of developed land this positive correlation persists only in districts where the median resident is a homeowner and is stronger in districts with more elderly residents who do not use school services and have a shorter expected duration in their home our findings support models in which capitalization encourages the provision of durable local public goods and provides an additional reason why some elderly support local school spending

centralization fiscal federalism and private school attendance a cge model is used to analyze the impact of public school financing on private school attendance the common perception that public school finance centralization will necessarily lead to greater private school attendance is not correct in such a model even when that centralization involves an extreme equalization as in california furthermore if centralization is less dramatic as in most states declines in private school attendance are even more pronounced this weakens the speculation that low exit rates to private schools in centralizing states imply that general public school quality does not drop as a result of such centralization

competition incentives and public school productivity abstract when competition increases it is often presumed that public schools will be forced to become more efficient this paper challenges that presumption showing that in well defined circumstances rent seeking public schools find it optimal to reduce productivity when a voucher is introduced this occurs for incentive reasons alone more generally the productivity effects of vouchers are shown to be non uniform varying systematically according to the distribution of households and the form the voucher takes when the voucher is targeted perverse productivity outcomes do not arise the analysis has relevance to the policy issue of voucher design

competition between private and public schools testing stratification and pricing predictions abstract when there are peer effects in education private schools have an incentive to vary tuition to attract relatively able students epple and romano american economic review 88 1 1998 33 develop a general equilibrium model characterizing equilibrium pricing and student selection into schools when peer effects are present the model predicts that competition will lead private schools to give tuition discounts to more able students and that this will give rise to an equilibrium exhibiting stratification by income and ability between the public and private sectors and to a hierarchy of schools within the private sector the model also yields a variety of comparative static predictions the predictions of the model are tested in this paper using a unique data set assembled by figlio and stone research in labor economics 1999 115 tests of equilibrium predictions of the model reveal that the propensity to attend private school increases with both income and ability and among private schools the propensity to attend the highest tuition schools rises with both income and ability within private schools tuition declines with student ability with a substantial number of even high income households paying little or no tuition the correlation between income and ability is greater in public than private schools tests of comparative static predictions of the model reveal that both income and ability become stronger predictors of private school attendance as public school expenditure falls income becomes increasingly important in determining placement in the private school hierarchy as public school expenditure falls discounts to ability in the lowest quality private school decline as public school expenditure rises while discounts to ability in the highest quality private school are little affected by changes in public school expenditure expenditure in private schools rises as expenditure in public schools increases these empirical results are consistent with the predictions of the theoretical model

interjurisdictional sorting and majority rule an empirical analysis the goal of this paper is to provide a comprehensive empirical analysis of majority rule and tiebout sorting within a system of local jurisdictions the idea behind the estimation procedure is to investigate whether observed levels of public expenditures satisfy necessary conditions implied by majority rule in a general equilibrium model of residential choice the estimator controls for observed and unobserved heterogeneity among households observed and unobserved characteristics of communities and the potential endogeneity of prices and expenditures as well as the self selection of households into communities of their choice we estimate the structural parameters of the model using data from the boston metropolitan area the empirical findings reject myopic voting models more sophisticated voting models based on utility taking provide a potential explanation of the main empirical regularities

good principals or good peers parental valuation of school characteristics tiebout equilibrium and the incentive effects of competition among jurisdictions good principals or good peers parental valuation of school characteristics tiebout equilibrium and the incentive effects of competition among jurisdictions by j esse m r othstein school choice policies may by aligning admin istrators incentives with parental demand yield improved efficiency in educational production milton friedman 1962 john e chubb and terry m moe 1990 but eric a hanushek 1981 cautions if the efficiency of our school systems is due to poor incentives for teachers and admin istrators coupled with poor decision making by consumers it would be unwise to expect much from programs that seek to strengthen market forces in the selection of schools p 35 empha sis added poor decision making is not required parents may rationally choose schools with pleasant surroundings athletic facilities cultural advantages ibid p 34 over those that most efficiently pursue academic performance they may prefer poorly run schools with good peer groups over those that are more effective but en roll worse students j douglas willms and frank h echols 1992 1993 or they may simply be unable to identify effective schools thomas j kane and douglas o staiger 2002 any factor that leads parents to choose any but the most effective available schools will tend to dilute the incentives for efficient management that choice might otherwise create this study examines the distribution of stu dent outcomes across schools within metropol itan housing markets for evidence on parental demand economists have long noted that par ents choices among residential locations are potentially informative about how more com plete choice systems may operate charles m tiebout 1956 melvin v borland and roy m howsen 1992 caroline m hoxby 2000 rothstein 2005 1 i ask whether school effec tiveness plays a sufficiently important role in these decisions to create meaningful incentives for more productive school management i adopt a specific understanding of effective ness appropriate to the question at hand a substantial portion of between school differ ences in student performance can be attributed to differences in student body composition this portion includes the effects of individual stu dent characteristics on their own test scores any direct peer group effects and any indirect ef fects of a school s composition on the quality of its instruction if wealthy schools attract better teachers joseph r antos and sherwin rosen 1975 or more parental involvement this is for my purposes a peer effect it depends on the quality of the school s administration only via school composition a school administrator cannot attract demand by offering a school with wealthy students as these can be offered only if wealthy families demand the school in the first place only the remaining portion of a school s contribution to test scores is effectiveness 2 department of economics and woodrow wilson school princeton university wallace hall 3 rd floor princeton nj 08544 e mail jrothst princeton edu i thank alan auerbach tom davidoff caroline hoxby jus tin mccrary rob mcmillan john quigley cecilia rouse emmanuel saez till von wachter four anonymous refer ees editor robert moffitt seminar participants at several institutions and especially david card for helpful sugges tions i am grateful to the college board for essential data and to a national science foundation graduate research fellowship and the fisher center for real estate and urban economics at uc berkeley for funding see cecilia elena rouse 1998 julie b cullen et al 2005 william g howell et al 2002 and alan b krueger and pei zhu 2004 for analyses of several existing nonresidential choice programs though none focuses on the particular issue studied here this definition avoids the need to find observable de terminants of effectiveness which have proved elusive hanushek 1986 my definition however ignores a school s contribution to nontest outcomes e g sports or music if such outcomes motivate parental choices i will conclude that parents do not demand effective schools of

does competition among public schools benefit students and taxpayers tiebout choice among districts is the most powerful market force in american public education naive estimates of its effects are biased by endogenous district formation i derive instruments from the natural boundaries in a metropolitan area my results suggest that metropolitan areas with greater tiebout choice have more productive public schools and less private schooling little of the effect of tiebout choice works through its effect on household sorting this finding may be explained by another finding students are equally segregated by school in metropolitan areas with greater and lesser degrees of tiebout choice among districts

does school choice lead to sorting evidence from tiebout variation a question commonly raised about school choice is whether it would result in sorting or stratification previous research has asked this with respect to inter district or tiebout choice but has generated no consensus in part because areas district concentrations may be endogenous this paper addresses this by exploiting the fact that some metropolitan areas mas have different numbers of districts operating at the primary and the secondary level the resulting within ma between educational level variation in district concentration suggests that increases in district availability do affect children s district and school level peer groups and that they lower private enrollment jel h1 h7 i2

under investing in public goods evidence causes and consequences for agricultural development equity and the environment a common factor that explains why agriculture causes too much environmental degradation grows too slowly and has been ineffective in reducing rural poverty is the generalized tendency by governments to under invest in public goods despite the high rates of return to such investments a large share of rural public expenditures is deviated to private goods mostly subsidies to the wealthy which generally have low or even negative rates of return behind such an obviously aberrant choice are political economy forces a highly unequal political lobby market leads to government policies that are biased in favor of economic elites and detrimental for both the environment and rural development globalization may affect this important distortion on the allocation of government expenditures in various ways one such way is by restricting the ability of governments to repress the political mobilization of the poor to counter the almost unchallenged power of the elites in the lobby market this may contribute toward creating conditions that are more consistent with sustainable and socially equitable development

the repository of soft information within bank organizations we examine who is the repository of soft information within bank organizations inconsistent with the conventional view of loan officers as the sole repository we find that branch managers have the most soft information we also find the repository at a higher hierarchical level at smaller banks furthermore our evidence suggests that branch managers themselves actively collect soft information especially at smaller banks these findings suggest the need for a more nuanced view beyond the conventional emphasis on loan officers and call for studies on the equilibrium design of the collection processing and use of soft information within bank organizations

peasant household behaviour with missing markets some paradoxes explained a model of peasant household behavior under varying degrees of household specific food and labor market failures is constructed to show that these structural features can explain several well known patterns of peasant response which have often been attributed to peculiar motives presumed specific to peasants the model explains sluggish response to cash crops prices and high instability in perceived food and labor scarcities the key role of manufactured consumer goods prices in stimulating peasants effort in cash crops production the effectiveness of taxation as opposed to incentives in stimulating cash crops production and the key role of technological change in food production to enhance cash crop production results are obtained analytically in the case of one market failure and by numerical simulation with more than one

mobility targeting and private school vouchers simulations are derived from a three district model of low middle and highincome school districts calibrated to new york data with housing stocks that vary within and across districts in this model it is demonstrated that school district targeted vouchers are similar in their impact to nontargeted vouchers but vastly different from vouchers targeted to low income households furthermore strong migration effects are shown to significantly improve the likely equity consequences of voucher programs jel 122 128 h73 persistent frustration with the perceived low quality of public education exacerbated by concerns over the inherently unequal levels of public school quality across school districts has caused policy makers courts and researchers to investigate modifications and alternatives to the current public school system one idea that has received increasing academic and public attention is that of private school vouchers with proponents arguing that the competitive pressures of voucher programs would cause improvements in the efficiency of the publicschool system while at the same time addressing equity concerns if vouchers can be targeted to low income households or low income school districts but aside from a few limited experiments in some u s cities our experience with vouchers in the united states remains virtually nonexistent this limits the amount of information researchers can derive from standard empirical analysis in that it forces them to rely on only current nonvoucher induced differences in competition despite important suggestive results such work may not anticipate all the impacts from a large scale policy such as the voucher policies currently under discussion at the same time theoretical models of school finance are also limited in that they often either focus on only one particular aspect of the general equilibrium school finance problem or they are too rich and complex to yield crisp predictions

tiebout choice and universal school vouchers abstract this paper examines who is likely to gain and who is likely to lose under a universal voucher program following epple and romano d epple r e romano competition between private and public schools vouchers and peer group effects american economic review 88 1998 33 62 d epple r e romano neighborhood schools choice and the distribution of educational benefits in c m hoxby ed the economics of school choice the univ of chicago press chicago 2003 pp 227 286 and nechyba t j nechyba mobility targeting and private school vouchers american economic review 90 2000 130 146 t j nechyba introducing school choice into multidistrict public school systems in c m hoxby ed the economics of school choice the univ of chicago press chicago 2003 pp 145 194 we focus on the idea that gains and losses under a universal voucher depend on two effects changes in peer group composition and changes in housing values we show that the direction and magnitude of each of these effects hinge critically on market structure i e the amount of school choice that already exists in the public sector in markets with little or no tiebout choice potential changes in peer group composition create an incentive for high socioeconomic ses households to vote for the voucher and for low ses households to vote against voucher in contrast in markets with significant tiebout choice potential changes in housing values create an incentive for high ses households to vote against the voucher and for low ses households to vote for the voucher using data on vote outcomes from california s 2000 voucher initiative we find evidence consistent with those predictions

a more complete conceptual framework for sme finance abstract we propose a more complete conceptual framework for analysis of sme credit availability issues in this framework lending technologies are the key conduit through which government policies and national financial structures affect credit availability we emphasize a causal chain from policy to financial structures which affect the feasibility and profitability of different lending technologies these technologies in turn have important effects on sme credit availability financial structures include the presence of different financial institution types and the conditions under which they operate lending technologies include several transactions technologies plus relationship lending we argue that the framework implicit in most of the literature is oversimplified neglects key elements of the chain and often yields misleading conclusions a common oversimplification is the treatment of transactions technologies as a homogeneous group unsuitable for serving informationally opaque smes and a frequent misleading conclusion is that large institutions are disadvantaged in lending to opaque smes

school vouchers a survey of the economics literature we review the theoretical computational and empirical research on school vouchers with a focus on the latter our assessment is that the evidence to date is not sufficient to warrant recommending that vouchers be adopted on a widespread basis however multiple positive findings support continued exploration specifically the empirical research on small scale programs does not suggest that awarding students a voucher is a systematically reliable way to improve educational outcomes and some detrimental effects have been found nevertheless in some settings or for some subgroups or outcomes vouchers can have a substantial positive effect on those who use them studies of large scale voucher programs find student sorting as a result of their implementation although of varying magnitude evidence on both small scale and large scale programs suggests that competition induced by vouchers leads public schools to improve moreover research is making progress on understanding how vouchers may be designed to limit adverse effects from sorting while preserving positive effects related to competition finally our sense is that work originating in a single case e g a given country or in a single research approach e g experimental designs will not provide a full understanding of voucher effects fairly wide ranging empirical and theoretical work will be necessary to make progress

capitalization and the voucher an analysis of precinct returns from california s proposition 174 abstract in 1993 californians voted on a school voucher initiative we hypothesize that homeowners in good school districts understood the voucher to be a threat to their property values and thus voted against it precinct returns from los angeles county confirm this hypothesis we also examine an alternative hypothesis explaining the relationship between school quality and precinct returns according to the alternative voters perceived the initiative to be a referendum on public school quality to distinguish between the two hypotheses we compare the voting patterns of homeowners and renters the comparison does not favor one hypothesis over the other

mobility housing markets and schools estimating the effects of inter district choice programs abstract in theoretical models of residential sorting a household s location decision is closely linked to its demand for local public services such as schooling since school choice programs weaken the link between residential location and schooling options they have the potential to affect both property values and residential location choices results derived from computable general equilibrium models suggest these effects could be large but there is limited empirical evidence concerning whether they actually occur this paper develops and tests predictions concerning the impact of inter district choice programs on housing values and residential location decisions our empirical results strongly confirm our theoretical predictions and the findings of the computable general equilibrium literature after their states adopt inter district choice programs districts with desirable nearby out of district schooling options experience relatively large increases in housing values residential income and population density

which school attributes matter the influence of school district performance and demographic composition on property values abstract increasing levels of segregation in american schools raises the question do home buyers pay for test scores or demographic composition this paper uses connecticut panel data spanning eleven years from 1994 to 2004 to ascertain the relationship between property values and school district attributes such as student test scores and the racial and ethnic composition of the student body town and census tract fixed effects are included to control for neighborhood unobservables the effect of changes in school district attributes is also examined over a decade long time frame in order to focus on the effect of long run changes which are more likely to be capitalized into prices the study finds strong evidence that increases in percent hispanic have a negative effect on housing prices in connecticut but mixed evidence concerning the impact of test scores on property values student test scores also appear to have increased in importance for explaining housing prices in recent years while the importance of percent hispanic has declined finally the study finds that estimates of property tax capitalization increase substantially when the analysis focuses on long run changes

the policy roots of socioeconomic stagnation and environmental implosion latin america 1950 2000 abstract the persistence of growth and its equity and environmental effects heavily depend on the composition of asset investments physical human and natural capital are the key assets behind the development process market failures tend to affect the accumulation of such assets asymmetrically leading to underinvestment in human and natural capital public policy in latin america has generally exacerbated such market failures by promoting physical capital investments using massive public subsidies instead of relying on the expansion of public and semipublic assets that complement physical capital the result economic stagnation deep social inequities and environmental destruction

a theory of competition among pressure groups for political influence this paper presents a theory of competition among pressure groups for political influence political equilibrium depends on the efficiency of each group in producing pressure the effect of additional pressure on their influence the number of persons in different groups and the deadweight cost of taxes and subsidies an increase in deadweight costs discourages pressure by subsidized groups and encourages pressure by taxpayers this analysis unifies the view that governments correct market failures with the view that they favor the politically powerful both are produced by the competition for political favors

the generalized war of attrition abstract we model a war of attrition with n k firms competing for n prizes in a natural oligopoly context the k 1 lowest value firms drop out instantaneously even though each firm s value is private information to itself in a standard setting context in which every competitor suffers losses until a standard is chosen even after giving up on its own preferred alternative each firm s exit time is independent both of k and of other players actions our results explain how long it takes to form a winning coalition in politics solving the model is facilitated by the revenue equivalence theorem jel d43 d44 l13 o30

priorities in school choice the case of the boston mechanism in barcelona abstract the boston mechanism is a school allocation procedure that is widely used around the world and has been criticized for its incentive problems in order to resolve overdemands for a given school most often priority is given to families living in the neighborhood of the school using a very rich data set on school applications for the case of the boston mechanism in barcelona we exploit an unexpected change in the definition of neighborhood this change allows us to identify that a large fraction of families systematically ranks first high priority schools neighborhood schools in this case additional data on school enrollment decisions and census data shows that some seemingly unsophisticated parents are high income families that can rank hard to get schools because they can afford the outside option of a private school in case they do not get in this sheds light on important inequalities beyond parents lack of sophistication found in the literature

spatial changes in labour market inequality abstract we study spatial changes in labour market inequality for us states and msas using census and american community survey data between 1980 and 2010 we report evidence of significant spatial variations in education employment shares and in the college wage premium for us states and msas and show that the pattern of shifts through time has resulted in increased spatial inequality because relative supply of college versus high school educated workers has risen faster at the spatial level in places with higher initial supply levels we also report a strong persistence and increased inequality of spatial relative demand bigger relative demand increases are observed in more technologically advanced states that have experienced faster increases in r d and computer usage and in states where union decline has been fastest finally we show the increased concentration of more educated workers into particular spatial locations and rising spatial wage inequality are important features of labour market polarization as they have resulted in faster employment growth in high skill occupations but also in a higher demand for low wage workers in low skill occupations overall our spatial analysis complements research findings from labour economics on wage inequality trends and from urban economics on agglomeration effects connected to education and technology

explaining agricultural and agrarian policies in developing countries the paper describes and as far as possible explains variations in policies programs and institutions that influence agricultural growth agrarian relations and rural welfare across developing countries and over time it evaluates the impact of distorted policy patterns on agricultural production and rural poverty and identifies conditions under which policy reforms meant to bring about greater efficiency and equity are likely to be initiated and sustained it draws upon a broad range of literature to show how material conditions missing markets and government policies affect static welfare outcomes patterns of accumulation state formation and the establishment of political institutions it suggests ways to improve policy advice and proposes directions for future research

the effects of generalized school choice on achievement and stratification evidence from chile s voucher program in 1981 chile introduced nationwide school choice by providing vouchers to any student wishing to attend private school as a result more than 1000 private schools entered the market and the private enrollment rate increased by 20 percentage points with greater impacts in larger more urban and wealthier communities we use this differential impact to measure the effects of unrestricted choice on educational outcomes using panel data for about 150 municipalities we find no evidence that choice improved average educational outcomes as measured by test scores repetition rates and years of schooling however we find evidence that the voucher program led to increased sorting as the bbestq public school students left for the private sector d 2005 elsevier b v all rights reserved

returns to investment in education a global update the author updates compilations of rate of return estimates to investment in education published since 1985 and discusses methodological issues surrounding those estimates some key patterns among the three main levels of education primary education continues to exhibit the highest social profitability in all world regions private returns are considerably higher than social returns because of the public subsidization of education the degree of public subsidy increases with the level of education which is regressive social and private returns at all levels generally decline by the level of a country s per capita income overall the returns to female education are higher than those to male education but at individual levels of education the pattern is more mixed the returns to the academic secondary school track are higher than the vocational track since unit cost of vocational education is much higher and the returns for those who work in the private competitive sector of the economy are higher than in the public noncompetitive sector and the returns in the self employment unregulated sector of the economy are higher than in the dependent employment sector controversies in the literature are discussed in the light of the new evidence the undisputable and universal positive correlation between education and earnings can be interpreted in many ways the causation issue on whether education really affects earnings can be answered only with experimental data generated by randomly exposing different people to various amounts of education given the fact that moral and pragmatic considerations prevent the generation of such pure data researchers have to make do with indirect inferences or natural experiments some have been attempted the author looks at the research on overeducation or surplus schooling the conclusions reinforce earlier patterns they confirm that primary education continues to be the number one investment priority in developing countries they also show that educating females is marginally more profitable than educating males that the academic secondary school curriculum is a better investment than the technical vocational tract and that the returns to education obey the same rules as investment in conventional capital that is they decline as investment is expanded