decisions under uncertainty in social contexts abstract this paper theoretically and experimentally studies decision making in risky and social environments we explore the interdependence of two decisive behavioral determinants in such environments risk attitudes and social preferences in the form of inequality aversion our model and the data demonstrate that individual risk aversion is attenuated when lagging behind peers whereas it is amplified under favorable income inequality moreover people s choices are not only context dependent but they are sensitive to their degree of inequality aversion the majority of our experimental findings cannot be rationalized by rank dependent utility models or cumulative prospect theory our results contribute to the basic understanding of the underlying motives of social incentives in firms private households saving decisions employees career track choices or charitable giving under uncertainty

preference heterogeneity in experiments comparing the field and laboratory do laboratory experiments provide a reliable basis for measuring field preferences economists recognize that preferences can differ across individuals but only a few attempts have been made to elicit individual preferences for representative samples of a population in a particular geographical area region or country our primary objective is to directly compare estimates of preferences elicited from a convenience sample and the estimates for the wider population from which that sample is drawn we examine the strengths and weaknesses of laboratory and field experiments to detect differences in preferences over risk and time that are associated with standard observable characteristics of the individual

increasing marginal utility of small increases in life expectancy results from a population survey abstract the standard practice in cost effectiveness analyses of health care is to assign a linear value to increasing lifetime gains the aim of the current study was to examine the possible existence of non linear utility for short life extensions a representative sample of the norwegian population aged 40 59 years n 2402 was asked to imagine that they had a limited remaining lifetime 1 year or 10 years and were offered a treatment that would increase lifetime by a specified amount of time from 1 week to 1 year in all scenarios the price per week of life extension was held constant the proportion of respondents that accepted the treatment increased with increasing extensions indicating a convex utility function the result suggests increasing marginal utility for life extensions up to 1 year

safety first criteria and their measures of risk a cardinal measure of risk which represents the safety first criteria is defined the functional form of that measure is determined for a subgroup of risk averse agents that do not have money illusion an empirical illustration of possible applications of that measure shows a method of identifying the subgroup of agents for which a given alternative dominates the others in a group of risky alternatives when none of these alternatives dominates any of the others according to the first and the second criteria of stochastic dominance

indifference pricing of weather derivatives weather derivatives are difficult to price due to the nontradability of weather and the absence of liquid secondary markets for these contracts we use the concept of indifference pricing to develop a model for calculating the willingness to pay for weather insurance compared with other approaches indifference pricing is less ambitious since it does not attempt to predict a transacted market price the application of indifference pricing in the case of german crop producers shows that their willingness to pay for weather insurance depends on the production program and varies regionally this suggests the development of tailored insurance products copyright 2008 oxford university press

buying less but shopping more the use of nonmarket labor during a crisis households allocating time between market and non market uses should respond to income variations by adjusting the time devoted to shopping search and other home production activities in this paper we exploit high frequency household expenditure data to examine the use of changes in shopping intensity as a method of mitigating the effects of the 2002 argentine economic crisis although the total quantity and real value of goods purchased fell during the crisis consumers are found to be doing more shopping search this increase in shopping is shown to enable households to seek out lower prices and locate substitutes allowing a given level of expenditure to buy more goods the magnitude and prevalence of these effects suggest that this non market use of labor can be an important coping strategy for households during a recession

contests as selection mechanisms the impact of risk aversion abstract we investigate how individual risk preferences affect the likelihood of selecting the more able contestant within a two player tullock contest our theoretical model yields two main predictions first an increase in the risk aversion of a player worsens her odds unless she already has a sufficiently large advantage second if the prize money is sufficiently large a less able but less risk averse contestant can achieve an equal or even higher probability of winning than a more able but more risk averse opponent in a laboratory experiment we confirm both the non monotonic impact and the compensating effect of risk aversion on winning probabilities our results suggest a novel explanation for the gender gap and the optimality of limited monetary incentives in selection contests

estimation of farmers risk attitude an econometric approach abstract an econometric procedure for estimating arrow pratt coefficients of risk aversion is derived the model of farmers allocating land among different crops and time between leisure and labor allows for testing arrow s hypotheses of decreasing absolute risk aversion and increasing relative risk aversion the empirical results support these hypotheses

risk taking preferences of farmers in northern thailand measurements and implications abstract risk taking preferences were elicited from small semi commercial farmers in northern thailand using an experimental procedure that included real monetary payoffs of meaningful magnitudes a total of five sets of lotteries with increasing payoffs were offered the farmers were found to be risk averters and their preferences conformed to the hypothesis of increasing nondecreasing partial relative risk aversion using regression analysis farmers expected variation of rice yields and farm size were found to be directly related to a decrease in risk aversion while the extent of multiple cropping availability of non land household assets and tested mathematical ability were found to be indirectly related to a decrease in risk aversion the variables expected variation of rice prices farmer s age and tested abstract ability scores were not related to risk taking preferences

the markowitz model of utility supplemented with a small degree of probability distortion as an explanation of outcomes of allais experiments over large and small payoffs and gambling on unlikely outcomes we show that in principal only a small degree of probability distortion is necessary for agents to exhibit the allais paradox we also show that the choices observed in the allais experiments employing small real payoffs cannot be explained by cumulative prospect theory without the assumption of low degrees of probability distortion that rule out gambling at unfair odds on all but the most extreme longshots in cpt given these points we show that the markowitz model of utility supplemented by a small degree of probability distortion can explain the majority choices involved allais experiments and other experiments as well as gambling at actuarially unfair odds

loss aversion with a state dependent reference point this study investigates reference dependent choice with a stochastic state dependent reference point the optimal reference dependent solution equals the optimal consumption solution no loss aversion if the reference point is selected fully endogenously given that loss aversion is widespread we conclude that the reference point generally includes an important exogenously fixed component we develop a choice model in which adjustment costs can cause stickiness relative to an initial exogenous reference point using historical u s investment benchmark data we show that this model is consistent with diversification across bonds and stocks for a wide range of evaluation horizons despite the historically high risk premium of stocks compared to bonds this paper was accepted by peter wakker decision analysis

the new theory of optimum currency areas highbrow opinion is like a hunted hare if you stand long enough it will come back to the place it started from dennis robertson

intergroup conflict and intra group punishment in an experimental contest game we study how conflict in a contest game is influenced by rival parties being groups and by group members being able to punish each other our main motivation stems from the analysis of socio political conflict the relevant theoretical prediction in our setting is that conflict expenditures are independent of group size and independent of whether punishment is available or not we find first that our results contradict the independence of groupsize prediction conflict expenditures of groups are substantially larger than those of individuals and both are substantially above equilibrium towards the end of the experiment material losses in groups are 257 of the predicted level there is however substantial heterogeneity in the investment behaviour of individual group members second allowing group members to punish each other after individual contributions to the contest effort are revealed leads to even larger conflict expenditures now material losses are 869 of the equilibrium level and there is much less heterogeneity in individual group members investments these results contrast strongly with those from public goods experiments where punishment enhances efficiency and leads to higher material payoffs

greater prudence and greater downside risk aversion abstract variation in the degree of downside risk aversion across decision makers has implications for efficient risk sharing however except for small differences in risk preferences there is no index analogous to the arrow pratt index of risk aversion that depends only on local properties of the utility function and indicates the degree of aversion to downside risk a measure that does depend only on local properties of the utility function u the index of prudence p u u is related to downside risk aversion which is indicated by a positive value for u although we show that the degree of prudence is not an accurate indicator of the degree of downside risk aversion we nonetheless demonstrate that a uniform increase in prudence accompanied by a uniform increase decrease in risk aversion is sufficient to indicate greater downside risk aversion provided prudence is greater less than three times the degree of risk aversion

the impacts of multiperil crop insurance on indonesian rice farmers and production this article analyzes the effect of multiperil crop insurance policy for risk averse indonesian rice farmers located in tuban and gresik regencies of the east java province based on the model comparative static analysis of a change in policy variables coverage levels and premium subsidies on input use through the coupling wealth and insurance effects are presented the comparative static results are largely ambiguous and left as empirical questions consequently the model is numerically simulated to quantify the effects of different coverage levels and subsidy rates on input use expected net insurance payments and certainty equivalents the empirical analysis shows that mpci crop insurance results in a decline in expected yield for coverage levels above about 82 5 for both regencies furthermore higher subsidy rates amplify the reduction in input use and yield therefore incomplete coverage with relatively low premium subsidies is the best policy to minimize the impact on input use and yield however from the farmers perspective the optimal policy combination results from the highest coverage level and subsidy which offer the largest expected net insurance payments and certainty equivalent

on lottery sales jackpot sizes and irrationality a cautionary note jackpot size has a greater impact than expected price as a determinant of lottery sales suggesting that agents exhibit irrational lotto mania we demonstrate why this conclusion is problematical by considering the reduced form obtained if agents are described by cumulative prospect theory

the validity of qalys under non expected utility this paper examines applications of non expected utility in the health domain the most widely used utility model in health economics the time linear qaly model assumes i separability of quality of life and life duration and ii linearity of the utility for life duration we perform new tests which are robust to violations of expected utility of these two assumptions the data support separability but show that the utility for life duration is concave rather than linear the finding of concave utility may not be surprising in itself the contribution of this paper is to demonstrate this empirically without being invalidated by violations of expected utility it has by now been widely recognised that expected utility is not valid as a descriptive theory of decision under uncertainty the descriptive violations of expected utility have led to the emergence of several non expected utility theories the increasing importance of non expected utility makes it necessary to reassess applications that were previously based on expected utility examples of such reassessments include karni and safra 1989 crawford 1990 and dekel et al 1991 for game theory machina 1995 and wakker et al 1997 for insurance theory and cubitt and sugden 1998 for the evolution of preferences see starmer 2000 for a review the present paper examines applications of non expected utility in the health domain we focus on the main utility model in health economics the quality adjusted life years qaly model and present new theoretical foundations for and empirical tests of this model under non expected utility qalys provide a simple way to combine the two dimensions of health life duration and health status into a single utility index they are intuitively appealing which facilitates communication to policy makers and analytically tractable which explains their widespread use in practical studies a disadvantage of qalys is that they only represent individual preferences over health under strong assumptions if these assumptions do not hold then the use of qalys may lead to incorrect policy recommendations to gain insight into the validity of qalys it is necessary to assess the restrictiveness of the assumptions that the qaly model imposes in the most common version of the qaly model the time linear qaly model the utility of the health outcome of spending t years in health state q is equal to tv g where v is a utility function over health states that is in the time linear qaly model the utility for duration is linear it is well known that under expected utility linearity of utility implies risk neutrality as it turns out risk neutrality with

households grocery shopping behavior in the short run theory and evidence this paper extends the study of nonmarket work activities to explain the impact of household characteristics on grocery shopping behavior a constrained utility maximization model is developed and the equilibrium conditions of the model are derived these conditions and the hypotheses implied by them relating to the determinants of time spent in a grocery shopping trip the size of a purchase and the number of such trips within a given period of time were tested using data from a sample which identified the household characteristics of grocery shoppers in these tests using two stage least squares the theoretical implications of our simultaneous equations model are significantly supported

asymmetry partial moments and production risk partial moment functions are proposed as a flexible way to characterize and estimate asymmetric effects of inputs on output distributions methods for econometric estimation of partial moment functions and tests for input symmetry and location scale distributions are presented a monte carlo study demonstrates properties of proposed tests a study of ecuadorian potato production illustrates the methods hypotheses of input symmetry and location scale are rejected a risk value model based on partial moments implies that fertilizer is risk increasing and fungicides and labor are risk reducing in potato production whereas an expected utility model based on full moments has the opposite implications

risk aversion versus expected profit maximization with a progressive income tax this article introduces the terms apparent or pseudo risk aversion to represent those situations where real risk aversion is falsely attributed simply because second and higher moments of random variables are arguments in a decision maker s objective function apparent risk aversion can occur when stochastic variables nonlinearly enter the objective function the progressive income tax structure is highlighted as a neglected but important source of apparent risk aversion such sources of apparent risk aversion should be recognized otherwise an incorrect level of risk aversion might be claimed or risk aversion might be claimed when risk neutrality prevails

sustained positive consumption in a model of stochastic growth the role of risk aversion abstract in a stochastic economy long run consumption and output may not be bounded away from zero even when productivity is arbitrarily high near zero and uncertainty is arbitrarily small in the one sector stochastic optimal growth model with i i d production shocks we characterize the nature of preferences that lead to this phenomenon for a stochastic cobb douglas technology for the general version of the model we outline sufficient conditions under which the economy expands its capital stock near zero and long run consumption is bounded away from zero with certainty our conditions highlight the important role played by risk aversion for small consumption levels

heteroscedasticity or production risk a synthetic view two veins of literature namely production risk literature and stochastic frontier analysis are examined both fields are concerned of output variation the former due to exogenous shocks the latter due inefficiency by covering the literature from both the fields this review suggests that the concept of heteroscedasticity can be utilized to build a synthesis between these mainly separate branches of literature however the synthetic approach brings a challenge how to differentiate between different sources of output variation this challenge is identified as the main obstacle to meaningfully combine the two approaches

is it myopia or loss aversion a study on investment game experiments abstract gneezy and potters 1997 designed an investment game experiment and found that consistent with myopic loss aversion mla individuals are more willing to take risks when they evaluate the results of their investments less frequently we formally prove that these findings can be accommodated by a standard crra functional once we assume narrow bracketing a specific form of myopia by which subjects take each decision in isolation and neglect asset integration we build a compound dataset containing the evidence of gneezy and potters 1997 and other replications and structurally estimate both crra plus narrow bracketing and mla together with a mixture model in which we estimate the probability with which each observation is generated by either model our results suggest that the crra model can also accommodate this experimental evidence providing empirical support to our theoretical findings

econometric estimation of producers risk attitudes general methods are proposed for the identification and econometric estimation of the parameters of the distribution of risk attitudes in a producer population the proposed methods also provide the basis for the development of statistical tests of model specification and of behavioral hypotheses econometric risk attitude estimation is shown to be possible under less restrictive conditions than previously believed a moment based version of the general model is applied to indian data and the econometrically estimated risk attitudes are presented and compared to experimental results for a similar group of producers

cautious expected utility and the certainty effect many violations of the independence axiom of expected utility can be traced to subjects attraction to risk free prospects the key axiom in this paper negative certainty independence dillenberger 2010 formalizes this tendency our main result is a utility representation of all preferences over monetary lotteries that satisfy negative certainty independence together with basic rationality postulates such preferences can be represented as if the agent were unsure of how to evaluate a given lottery p instead she has in mind a set of possible utility functions over outcomes and displays a cautious behavior she computes the certainty equivalent of p with respect to each possible function in the set and picks the smallest one the set of utilities is unique in a well dened sense we show that our representation can also be derived from a cautious completion of an incomplete preference relation

the cost of agricultural production risk abstract we examine the relative influence of preferences and technology on producers ex ante willingness to pay for a reduction in production risk a risk averse producer pays both an arrow pratt risk premium to stabilize income and a production premium to stabilize yield using soil nitrate risks as our motivating example we demonstrate that the production premium accounts for 40 85 of producers willingess to pay for risk reduction these results demonstrate the relative importance of technology over risk preferences when estimating the costs of agricultural production risk

expo power utility a flexible form for absolute and relative risk aversion a new utility function which i call expo power is proposed that exhibits decreasing constant or increasing absolute risk aversion and decreasing or increasing relative risk aversion depending on parameter values numerical analysis suggests that the expo power function performs well in incorporating these risk preference structures and that arbitrary risk preference specifications may lead to biased risk response estimates

behavioral and welfare effects of tournaments and fixed performance contracts some experimental evidence using experimental economics we compare the efficiency and welfare effects of tournaments and fixed performance contracts our subjects agents were generally better off under fixed performance contracts but the advantage of the fixed performance contract disappears if the relative magnitude of the standard deviation of the common shock exceeds a critical value efficiency wise agents tend to exert higher effort under fixed performance contracts on average additionally an increase in the common shock standard deviation appeared to be associated with lower effort under tournaments our results shed light on the potential impact of legislative proposals to ban tournament contracts

testing expected utility maximization under price and quantity risk with a heterogeneous panel refutable implications based on the curvature properties of the indirect utility function for the competitive firm operating under uncertainty are extended to the case of both price and quantity uncertainty using unit roots and cointegration tests for heterogeneous panels a model of us agricultural production is developed based on the time series properties of a panel of state level data most refutable hypotheses under output price and output quantity risk are not rejected but symmetry conditions implied by a twice continuously differentiable indirect utility function are rejected the same test conclusions are obtained from a traditional model that presumes stationarity in all variables

heterogeneous agents and the implications of the markowitz model of utility for multi prize lottery tickets abstract the purpose in this letter is to demonstrate employing two parametric forms of the markowitz model of utility that heterogeneity of preferences of markowitz agents can contribute towards an explanation of why lotteries typically have multiple rather than single prizes

environmental constraints and sigmoid utility implications for value risk sensitivity and social status abstract friedman and savage journal of political economy 4 1948 279 proposed sigmoid utility theory to model the relationship between social class and risk sensitivity their proposal has not been explicitly modeled to allow for full testing of the concept we argue that sigmoid utility arises naturally from boundary conditions imposed by finite environmental resources that engender competition we also present a sigmoid formulation and examine its empirical warrant by considering economic data from anthropological historical and sociological cases studies standard risk sensitivity measures such as arrow pratt and downside risk aversion provide expectations for which individuals are most risk prone insights from prospect theory indicate under what conditions sigmoid utility may be most useful we consider the implications of environmental constraint in the context of the sigmoid model as an explanation for the nature of political turmoil during the collapse of maya civilization ca ad 850 we consider the role lack of constraint played in the american revolution and we explore how sigmoid utility can enrich our understanding of contemporary american voting behavior

production risk and optimal input decisions the paper examines the impact of production risk on a producer s optimal input decisions whether producers use more or fewer inputs in a yield risky environment depends on the sign of the marginal risk premium which is determined by risk preferences and technology i present the weakest condition on technology that is sufficient to sign the marginal risk premium for all risk averse preferences if this condition fails to hold the marginal risk premium is not of the same sign for all risk averters results are used to explore the properties of an estimated technology

joint risk preference technology estimation with a primal system applied studies of the firm in a risky environment have concentrated either on the firm s technology or on its risk preferences these models result in generally inconsistent and inefficient parameter estimates a primal model is proposed which allows a firm s preferences and technology to be estimated jointly in the presence of risk the model is applied to iowa corn production and estimated technology parameters are compared with those from other approaches modest risk aversion leads to inelastic even backbending per acre supplies and input demands yield heteroskedasticity in inputs leads to supply heteroskedasticity in prices especially for risk neutral firms

a nonparametric elicitation of the equity efficiency trade off in cost utility analysis we performed an empirical elicitation of the equity efficiency trade off in cost utility analysis using the rank dependent quality adjusted life year qaly model a model that includes as special cases many of the social welfare functions that have been proposed in the literature our elicitation method corrects for utility curvature and therefore our estimated equity weights are not affected by diminishing marginal utility we observed a preference for equality in the allocation of health the data suggest that the elicited equity weights were jointly determined by preferences for equality and by insensitivity to group size a procedure is proposed to correct the equity weights for insensitivity to group size finally we give an illustration how our method can be implemented in health policy

production risk risk aversion and the determination of risk attitudes among spanish rice producers agricultural production is subject to risk and the attitudes of producers toward risk will influence input choices insofar as these affect production risk risk attitudes in turn may be affected by certain socioeconomic characteristics of producers using 2004 survey data from a cross section of 130 spanish rice farms we estimate risk aversion coefficients of farmers and investigate the influence of a series of socioeconomic variables on their risk attitudes our results show that farmers exhibit risk averse behavior and that risk attitudes are related to a series of socioeconomic characteristics in particular the belief that the farm will continue after the producer retires is found to increase the degree of risk aversion while age is found to have nonlinear effects on risk aversion off farm income especially from nonagricultural activities is found to reduce risk aversion neither the educational level of the producer nor the presence of dependents on the household is found to have an effect on risk preferences regarding the production technology we find that land labor and fitosanitary products are risk reducing inputs whereas capital seeds and fertilizer all increase risk

the advantage of tying one s hands ems discipline and central bank credibility abstract it is often argued that the ems is an effective disciplinary device for inflation prone countries in europe since it forces the respective policy makers to pursue more restrictive monetary policies than they would otherwise it is not clear however why these countries should submit themselves to such discipline this paper argues that to answer this question appropriately one must consider that ems membership brings potentially large credibility gains policy makers in inflation prone countries the reason is that not only it attaches an extra penalty to inflation in terms of real appreciation but makes the public aware that the policy maker is faced with such penalty and thus helps to overcome the inefficiency stemming from the public s mistrust of the authorities

current issues in the economics of groundwater resource management the issue of groundwater management remains a practical concern in many regions throughout the world while water managers continue to grapple with the question of how to manage this resource in this article we attempt to bring the most advanced and appropriate tools to bear on the issue of resource allocation involving groundwater our objective is to demonstrate the state of the art in the literature on ways to think about this complex resource and to deal with the important economic issues emanating from its complexity we present the conceptual framework within which economists examine the elements interacting in the management of groundwater resources indicate why the role of the market is limited with respect to the price of this very complex resource and point to the mechanisms that can pull competitive groundwater price and quality graded quantity of groundwater in line with their equilibrium levels in particular we critically review economic models of groundwater use examine the potential for groundwater management discuss the difficulties encountered in the estimation of the relevant control variables of such models and identify the advantages and limitations of the instruments devised for the efficient use allocation of this resource finally we argue that devised regulatory schemes usually ignore the information and knowledge needed for their implementation and we suggest a core of conditions necessary for successful groundwater management reforms

measuring stochastic technology the case of tulare milk production the flexible moment based approach to production analysis is used to measure the stochastic structure of large scale dairy production in tulare county california this approach is flexible because it does not impose restrictions on the relationships between decision variables and the moments of the probability distribution of output the parameter estimates support the hypothesis that second and third moments are functions of inputs and indicate that capital intensive dairies are riskier the implied behavior of a risk averse dairy manager changed markedly when the effects of inputs on the skewness of the output distribution were included in a decision model

discounting behavior a reconsideration we re evaluate the theory experimental design and econometrics behind claims that individuals exhibit non constant discounting behavior theory points to the importance of controlling for the non linearity of the utility function of individuals since the discount rate is defined over time dated utility flows and not flows of money it also points to a menagerie of functional forms to characterize different types of non constant discounting behavior the implied experimental design calls for individuals to undertake several tasks to allow us to identify these models and to several treatments such as multiple horizons and the effect of allowing for a front end delay on earlier payments the implied econometrics calls for structural estimation of the theoretical models allowing for joint estimation of utility functions and discounting functions using data collected from a representative sample of 413 adult danes in 2009 we draw striking conclusions assuming an exponential discounting model we estimate discount rates to be 5 6 on average this is significantly lower than all previous estimates using controlled experiments we also find no evidence to support quasi hyperbolic discounting or fixed cost discounting and only modest evidence to support other specifications of non constant discounting furthermore the evidence for non constant discounting while statistically significant is not economically significant in terms of the size of the estimated discount rates we undertake extensive robustness checks on these findings including a detailed review of the previous comparable literature

does the law of supply hold under uncertainty a widely held conjecture of economists is that the quantity supplied by pricetaking producers increases with an increase in output price law of supply this cornerstone of economics has been proven repeatedly with many techniques under many different sets of assumptions and is found in all textbooks on principles of economics most of these proofs assume full certainty of production relationships single product technology and or risk neutrality in a world of uncertainty one of the most crucial aspects of economic behaviour is risk aversion with risk aversion diversification is a basic response to economic uncertainty thus models of producer behaviour under uncertainty need to consider multioutput technology where diversification is a possibility this paper points out that the widely held law of supply may fail when these generalities risky multioutput production with risk aversion are introduced simultaneously where diversification is also affected by a capacity constraint in production conditions are developed under which the law fails holds the peculiar result occurs because increasing price can increase profit risk more than proportionally while expected profit increases proportionally this relative increase in risk causes a tendency to shift production capacity into an alternative activity the first section introduces a model of production under uncertainty the second section analyses the behaviour of supply in the special case of additive production risk without price risk the third section shows that similar problems can be encountered with other cases as well empirical examples which demonstrate relevance of the results are also given

risk aversion and yield uncertainty in duality models of production a mean variance approach a duality model of production is developed that endogenizes stochastic output decisions under risk aversion the model incorporates both yield and price uncertainty and nonlinear mean variance risk preferences this permits modeling of the firm s expected output supply and input demand decisions under risk and also in principle the firm s output variance decisions the duality model is tractable for empirical research

diminishing marginal utility of wealth and calibration of risk in agriculture expected utility theory eut has dominated the agricultural economics literature on behavior under risk particularly since the late 1970s in eut risk preferences are completely defined by the curvature of the utility function an expected utility maximizer with a concave utility curve would avoid choices that represent a greater wealth risk estimates of risk aversion coefficients based on assumed utility functional forms have been valued in predicting producers responses to proposed policy see saha shumway and talpaz for a review yet these estimates are biased if there are omitted variables such as knowledge understanding and managerial expertise that are related to the probability distribution of profit if the production function is jointly estimated with the utility function then the riskincreasing or risk reducing properties of production inputs may also wrongly be ascribed to the concavity of the utility function since allais substantial evidence has been accumulated to suggest systematic flaws in eut mostly in experimental settings with small stakes applied economists have regarded these violations as exceptions due to the special circumstances surrounding their observation recently rabin showed that attributing all risk behavior in small gambles solely to diminishing marginal utility of wealth leads to improbable levels of risk aversion his calibration theorem based on dichotomous choices suggests that a person who turns down a lottery with a 0 5 probability of winning 125 and 0 5 probability of losing 100 will always turn down any bet with a 0 5 chance of losing 600 no matter how large of a gain may be had with the remaining 0 5 probability we generalize rabin s work to continuous payoff distributions and continuous choice problems to show that his criticism extends to realistic risky situations the concavity problem is not limited to small money risks rather when risky choices have similar average payouts utility functions must display ridiculous levels of concavity to predict individual choices below we present our general calibration problem and apply the results to an empirical risk study in agricultural economics to illustrate the unintended consequences of using eut to explain risk response

risk preferences production risk and firm heterogeneity a new technique is proposed for deriving the risk preference function under production risk and expected utility of profit maximization the derivation depends on neither a specific parametric form of the utility function nor any distribution of the error term representing production risk the proposed risk preference function is flexible enough to test different types of risk behavior and symmetry of the output distribution furthermore our production risk specification allows for inputs with positive and negative marginal risk the econometric model accommodates production risk risk preferences and firm heterogeneity simultaneously norwegian salmon farming data are used as an application

risk aversion and land allocation between annual and perennial crops in semisubsistence farming a stochastic optimization approach this article analyzes the effect of production uncertainty on farmland allocation decisions between perennial and annual crops focusing on a representative farmer s attitude toward risk a dynamic stochastic optimization model that considers net planting the difference between new plantings and removals of perennial crops that achieve full production cycle is used the effect of uncertainty on the representative farmer s decisions to increase or decrease perennial crops acreage on the optimal path is examined our results reveal that the response of optimal path of net planting to uncertainty related to perennial crop production is highly affected by the farmer s attitude toward risk a risk averse or a low risk loving farmer tends to reduce land allocation to perennial crops under uncertainty while a high risk loving farmer will do exactly the opposite also due to disutility of farming the farmer tends to reduce land allocation to perennial crops when prices are high enough for him to attain a desired income level expectation one implication of this research is the need for mechanization in sub saharan countries in particular that increases per acreage yield and output in semisubsistence agriculture

joint estimation of risk preferences and technology flexible utility or futility a thought experiment is designed to investigate whether the structure of risk aversion i e the changes in absolute or relative risk aversion associated with changes in wealth can be estimated with reasonable precision from agricultural production data findings strongly suggest that typical production data are unlikely to allow identification of the structure of risk aversion a flexible utility parameterization is found to slightly worsen technology parameter estimates results also indicate that even under a restricted utility specification utility parameter estimates are biased further their quality is much worse when shocks are not large or samples are small

time to change what to sow risk preferences and technology adoption decisions of cotton farmers in china this paper examines the role of individual risk attitudes in the decision to adopt a new form of agricultural biotechnology in china i conducted a survey and a field experiment to elicit the risk preferences of chinese farmers who faced the decision of whether to adopt genetically modified bt cotton a decade ago in my analysis i expand the measurement of risk preferences beyond expected utility theory to incorporate prospect theory i find that farmers who are more risk averse or more loss averse adopt bt cotton later farmers who overweight small probabilities adopt bt cotton earlier

the monthly food stamp cycle shooping frequency and food intake decisions in an endogenous switching regression framework mean food spending by food stamp households peaks sharply in the first three days after benefits are received for those who conduct major grocery shopping trips only once per month 42 of all food stamp households mean food energy intake drops significantly by the fourth week of the month for the remaining households intake remains steady over the course of the month these patterns motivate an empirical model that simultaneously accounts for the shopping frequency and food intake decisions over time results have implications for policies that may affect the frequency of grocery shopping by food stamp households

preferences for consumption streams scale invariance correlation aversion and delay aversion under mortality risk lifetime financial decisions often require a decision analyst to elicit a decision maker s preferences for consumption streams in assessing such preferences the analyst might look for a set of reasonable conditions to check when selecting a utility form we provide such a set of conditions and show that they lead to the multiplicative expo power mep utility form some of our conditions involve trade offs under certainty and others relate to choices under uncertainty in the deterministic setting we invoke increasingness continuous differentiability mutual preferential independence and preferential scale invariance in the uncertainty setting we invoke componentwise risk aversion a utility independence condition and correlation aversion we apply the mep utility in a life cycle consumption planning problem under mortality risk in this context we find that the correlation averse mep utility is more realistic than and as tractable as the popular correlation neutral additive power and additive exponential utilities we show that the correlation averse decision maker prefers to consume more in life and leave less behind in death in addition we demonstrate that the correlation averse decision maker is more averse to delaying consumption in the face of mortality risk

asset pricing with multiplicative habit and power expo preferences abstract multiplicative habit introduces an additional consumption risk as a determinant of the equity premium and allows time preference and habit strength in addition to risk aversion to affect the price of risk a model combining multiplicative habit and power expo preferences cannot be rejected

automatic stabilisers european union and national unity tradition seems to require that economists argue forever about the question whether in any disequilibrium situation market forces acting alone are likely to restore equilibrium now this is certainly an interesting question but as social scientists we surely must address ourselves to the broader question is the disequilibrium situation likely to be corrected at all by market or nonmarket forces or by both acting jointly it is our contention that nonmarket forces are not necessarily less automatic than market forces hirschman 1958 p 63 emphasis in the original hirschman and myrdal 1957 consistently insist that the image of a relentlessly taut economy can be a check to curiosity and a bar to true enquiry a proper search for understanding hirschman and myrdal h and m suggest must relax the assumptions which ensure fully informed price signals and reactions that are automatic elastic responsive only then can one approach an economy which is consistent with reality an economic system where bargains and contracts are made at prices which do not clear markets where resources remain unemployed underemployed unrecognised and where there are problems in encouraging adjustment to constantly changing opportuni ties in such an imperfect but realistic economy there may be a role for nonmarket forces h and m make stronger claims given particular emphasis by hirschman is the idea that non market forces emerge naturally inevitably even without conscious volition when the market fails to discover reasonable balance society will recognise will sense the gap and state policies and social institutions will emerge in an attempt to bridge it the argument applies to different forms of balance and has links to myrdal s claim

resource management under production and output price uncertainty implications for environmental policy various environmental policies have been proposed to control agricultural runoff of nutrients and pesticides the impacts of these policies on input use are complicated because of the various sources of uncertainty farmers face and the precise nature of farmers risk attitude a risk averse farmer s response to changed profit input and output taxes under output price and production uncertainty is examined the impact of these policies on input use depends on the form of production uncertainty risk input relationships risk attitudes and degrees of output price and production uncertainty these results have implications for the design and implementation of environmental and other production related policies copyright 2002 oxford university press

differential uncertainties and risk attitudes between conventional and organic producers the case of spanish arable crop farmers the growing importance of economic factors in farmers decision to go organic has raised interest in characterizing the economic behavior of organic versus conventional farms published analyses so far have not considered differential uncertainties and farmers risk preferences between conventional and organic practices when comparing these techniques our article attempts to assess this issue we use a model of farmer decision under risk to analyze the differential values between spanish cop organic and conventional farms and to assess the incentives for adoption of organic practices results show that organic and conventional farms do have different abilities to control production risk as well as different risk preferences organic price premiums and subsidies are found to be powerful instruments to motivate adoption of organic techniques

the response of peasant farmers to price incentives the use and misuse of profit functions recent famines in chad ethiopia and the sudan have highlighted a major problem facing less developed countries how does an ldc become self sufficient in food production the answers to this question range from the narrowly defined economic one or economistic approach to the more widely based institutional reforms approach the former approach typified by say schultz 1964 or the world bank 1982 would emphasise the importance of mainly price incentives the latter approach as typified by myrdal 1968 in his monumental work asian drama would emphasise the importance of land reforms as a pre condition for agricultural development the debate has sometimes followed a misleading path and discussed whether peasants are rational or whether they are lazy inert tradition bound etc the aim of this article is to show that the use of profit functions to model peasant behaviour in ldcs is seriously flawed neo classical economic theory within which profit functions are embodied ignores the historical social institutional and political context within which peasant farmers operate peasant farmers do not operate in full blooded capitalist impersonal competitive input and output markets the article is structured as follows section ii outlines the profit function approach and section iii provides a survey and critique of applications of the profit function to ldc agriculture section iv concludes with some general remarks on analysing peasant behaviour in an alternative paradigm

deal or no deal decision making under risk in a large payoff game show we examine the risky choices of contestants in the popular tv game show deal or no deal and related classroom experiments contrary to the traditional view of expected utility theory the choices can be explained in large part by previous outcomes experienced during the game risk aversion decreases after earlier expectations have been shattered by unfavorable outcomes or surpassed by favorable outcomes our results point to reference dependent choice theories such as prospect theory and suggest that path dependence is relevant even when the choice problems are simple and well defined and when large real monetary amounts are at stake

stochastic technology risk preferences and adoption of site specific technologies a model of farmer decision making is developed to determine the extent to which uncertainties about soil fertility and weather affect the value of site specific technologies ssts using jointly estimated risk and technology parameters uncertainty can lead risk averse farmers to apply more fertilizers and generate more pollution than in the certainty case ignoring uncertainty and risk aversion would overestimate the economic and environmental benefits of ssts and underestimate the subsidy required to induce adoption accounting for uncertainties and risk preferences might explain the low observed adoption rates of ssts improving the accuracy of ssts would increase the incentives for adoption

technological uncertainty and the theory of the firm several recent articles 1 6 have generalized the theory of the firm to incorporate price uncertainty and risk aversion it is now well known that the risk averse entrepreneur will select that level of output at which the expected price equals the marginal cost plus the marginal risk premium leland 5 provides a similar generalization given demand uncertainty however in each case the assumption of a well specified technology is maintained this paper complements and generalizes the earlier work on the theory of the firm by investigating the effect which technological uncertainty has on the firm s optimal production decision like the earlier work on the theory of the firm we show that the firm selects the level of input at which the expected marginal productivity equals the factor price plus the marginal risk premium unlike the earlier work we show that the sign of the marginal risk premium is not always positive and that it depends on the structure of the firm s technology we show that the distinction between price and technological uncertainty is important because each can lead to different implications for firm behavior like its predecessors the model of the firm presented here assumes a single ownerentrepreneur who makes the production decision we modify the baron and sandmo models by assuming that the entrepreneur knows the cost of each production decision but not the output as a result the entrepreneur s decision yields a random variable denoting output and a linear transformation of it denoting profit the entrepreneur chooses the random variable denoting profit to maximize his expected utility there are at least three distinct ways in which our notion of technological uncertainty may be interpreted first the entrepreneur may not know the location of the production surface in this case each production decision yields a random output an increase in the

empirical estimation and use of risk preferences an appraisal of estimation methods that use actual economic decisions the topic addressed in this paper concerns the conceptual basis estimation procedures and resources required for implementation of methods for estimating risk preferences by observing behavior an attempt is made to review and appraise previous literature as well as to explore some alternative approaches to begin it is important to contrast four general types of empirical settings of interest these are micro farm level macro market or other aggregations descriptive positivistic and prescriptive normative studies the prescriptive or conditionally normative studies seemingly have dominated agricultural economic studies of risk these generally have been micro in nature and have focused on

measuring risk attitudes among mozambican farmers abstract although farmers in developing countries are generally thought to be risk averse little is known about the actual form of their risk preferences in this paper we use a relatively large lab in the field experiment to explore risk preferences related to sweet potato production among a sample of farmers in northern mozambique a unique feature of this experiment is that it includes a large subsample of husband and wife pairs after exploring correlations between husband and wife preferences we explicitly test whether preferences follow the constant relative risk aversion crra utility function and whether farmers follow expected utility theory or rank dependent utility theory in generating their preferences we reject the null hypothesis that farmers preferences follow the crra utility function in favor of the more flexible power risk aversion preferences if we make the common crra assumption in our sample we poorly predict risk preferences among those who are less risk averse

economic behavior under uncertainty a joint analysis of risk preferences and technology a method is developed to estimate jointly risk preferences and technology under general conditions the approach is illustrated in an application to the analysis of u s corn soybean acreage decisions over time the results provide useful information on the nature of farmers risk preferences and on the influence of price risk and production risk on acreage allocation and farmers welfare copyright 1996 by mit press

loss aversion under prospect theory a parameter free measurement agrowing body of qualitative evidence shows that loss aversion a phenomenon formalized in prospect theory can explain a variety of field and experimental data quantifications of loss aversion are however hindered by the absence of a general preference based method to elicit the utility for gains and losses simultaneously this paper proposes such a method and uses it to measure loss aversion in an experimental study without making any parametric assumptions thus it is the first to obtain a parameter free elicitation of prospect theory s utility function on the whole domain our method also provides an efficient way to elicit utility midpoints which are important in axiomatizations of utility several definitions of loss aversion have been put forward in the literature according to most definitions we find strong evidence of loss aversion at both the aggregate and the individual level the degree of loss aversion varies with the definition used which underlines the need for a commonly accepted definition of loss aversion

compensated optimal response under uncertainty in agricultural household models abstract this study derives the qualitative properties of a household s optimal consumption family labour hired labour and non labour input choices under price and or output risk through a slutsky type compensation without imposing any restriction on risk preference structure or production technology these compensated responses provide the underpinning for welfare analysis in agricultural household models under risk the framework for the evaluation of welfare effects of product and factor price interventions in a setting of output and price risk is developed the paper also outlines an empirical model for estimation of the compensated demand and supply responses and for validation of the paper s analytical results

uncertainty duality and perversity an empirical test of the schultz baron hypothesis it has been suggested that supply curves may be negatively sloped under conditions of output price uncertainty and risk aversion if the effect of an increase in expected price is offset by the effect of an associated increase in uncertainty risk this hypothesis first articulated by schultz and given a more rigorous theoretical exposition by baron is tested using aggregate time series data to estimate a stochastic model of us agriculture based on a generalized leontief certainty equivalent profit function evidence of risk aversion and a positive correlation between mean output price and its variance are found however these factors are not strong enough to generate perversity thus the own price elasticity of supply of agricultural output is found to be positive with a value of 0 25 although no evidence of perversity is found the empirical results suggest that ignoring price uncertainty may bias estimates of aggregate supply response downwards by between 5 and 47 as well as testing the schultz

on the potential for observational equivalence in experiments on risky choice when a power value function is assumed we demonstrate theoretically and illustrate the implications of assuming power utility when the true function is of the expo power form empirical results can appear to be consistent with cumulative prospect theory when they are in fact generated from a markowitz model

risk aversion and expected utility of consumption over time the calibration theorem by rabin rabin m 2000a risk aversion and expected utility theory a calibration theorem econometrica 68 1281 1292 rabin m 2000b diminishing marginal utility of wealth cannot explain risk aversion in kahneman d tversky a eds choices values and frames cambridge university press implies that seemingly plausible small stake choices under risk imply implausible large stake risk aversion this theorem is derived based on the expected utility of wealth model however cox and sadiraj cox j c sadiraj v 2006 small and large stakes risk aversion implications of concavity calibration for decision theory games econ behav 56 45 60 show that such implications do not follow from the expected utility of income model one may then wonder about the implications for more applied consumption analysis the present paper therefore expresses utility as a function of consumption in a standard life cycle model and illustrates the implications of this model with experimental small and intermediate stake risk data from holt and laury holt c a laury s k 2002 risk aversion and incentive effects amer econ rev 92 1644 1655 the results suggest implausible risk aversion parameters as well as unreasonable implications for long term risky choices thus the conventional intertemporal consumption model under risk appears to be inconsistent with the data c 2009 elsevier inc all rights reserved less

estimation of australian wool and lamb production technologies under uncertainty an error components approach a model of producer behavior which explicitly accounts for both output price and production uncertainty is formulated and estimated if the production technology is multiplicatively separable in its deterministic and stochastic components then the expected utility maximization problem implies cost minimization for planned or expected output consequently our empirical model of three lamb and wool producing sectors in australia involves the estimation of a system of input cost share and cost equations whose disturbances have an error components structure the empirical results are evaluated in terms of input demand elasticities and estimates of the stochastic components of production are presented

tournaments fairness and risk we estimate willingness to pay wtp to operate under two types of contracts tournaments ts and fixed performance standard contracts f our results are consistent with the notion that subjects having social preferences for fairness and care about risk that is when subjects experience greater inequity under tournaments relative to fixed performance contracts or experience greater revenue risk under tournaments the gap between wtp for fixed performance and tournament contracts increases ceteris paribus our results provide an explanation for grower dissatisfaction with tournament compensation schemes independent of possible concerns regarding opportunistic behavior by integrators

the story of the moment risk averse cypriot farmers respond to drought management this article illustrates the importance of estimating risk preferences when evaluating water policy using agricultural production data from the kiti region of cyprus we estimate farmers risk preferences a la antle journal of business and economic statistics 1 192 201 1983 american journal of agricultural economics 69 509 22 1987 and show sensitivity to higher order moments of profit such as skewness we show that farmers in the kiti region are risk averse with risk premiums in the region of 20 of expected profit we use these estimates to analyse the impact of a water quota from the perspective of three policy makers who differ only in their understanding of farmers risk preferences we show in the case of kiti that policy makers who model risk preferences incorrectly that is either a assume risk neutrality or b ignore down side risk wrongly predict the magnitude and direction of input responses and therefore the magnitude of welfare changes this highlights the importance of accomm

tests for the role of risk aversion on input use for risk averting agents risks alter production decisions while the existence of institutions to insure against adverse states of nature will likely restore decisions toward levels under risk neutrality in this article conditions are identified on a stochastic technology to test h that risk averters choose smaller input levels than risk neutral agents and h that an increase in risk aversion reduces input use a robust statistical method to test for dominance is adapted to stochastic production relations it is found that h is likely true for nitrogen application on iowa corn weaker evidence is found in favor of h

consumption versus expenditure previous authors have documented a dramatic decline in food expenditures at the time of retirement we show that this is matched by an equally dramatic rise in time spent shopping for and preparing meals using a novel data set that collects detailed food diaries for a large cross section of u s households we show that neither the quality nor the quantity of food intake deteriorates with retirement status we also show that unemployed households experience a decline in food expenditure and food consumption commensurate with the impact of job displacement on permanent income these results highlight how direct measures of consumption distinguish between anticipated and unanticipated shocks to income whereas measures of expenditures obscure the distinction

optimal fuel mix in chp plants under a stochastic permit price risk neutrality versus risk aversion abstract this paper studies the optimal fuel mix of a chp producer under emission permit price risk the producer s multi fuel plant uses two co2 intensive fuels and one clean fuel using a mean variance framework we develop three models the models are divided into spot models risk neutral and risk averse cases and a forward model risk averse case we derive the effects of price risk on optimal fuel use an increase in price risk can in fact increase the use of co2 intensive fuel in the spot model in the forward model the production and financial decisions are separate we also evaluate the risk bearing behavior of seven finnish chp producers we found that risk neutrality describes behavior better than risk aversion