the spatial and temporal diffusion of house prices in the uk abstract this paper provides a method for the analysis of the spatial and temporal diffusion of shocks in a dynamic system we use changes in real house prices within the uk economy at the level of regions to illustrate its use adjustment to shocks involves both a region specific and a spatial effect shocks to a dominant region london are propagated contemporaneously and spatially to other regions they in turn impact on other regions with a delay we allow for lagged effects to echo back to the dominant region london in turn is influenced by international developments through its link to new york and other financial centers it is shown that new york house prices have a direct effect on london house prices we analyse the effect of shocks using generalised spatio temporal impulse responses these highlight the diffusion of shocks both over time as with the conventional impulse responses and over space

the concept of quality and the efficiency of markets issues and comments a recent article in this journal by hjorth andersen 1984 hereafter referred to as h a on the concept of quality and the efficiency of markets makes valuable contributions and raises interesting issues this comment will focus on two of the most significant issues raised market inefficiency and its potential impact on inefficient consumer decision making and the financial losses consumers suffer due to market inefficiency i will show that for each issue there are important alternative interpretations of h a s data that deserve much greater attention when all the evidence is weighed it appears that two major interpretations require special consideration

the future price of houses mortgage market conditions and the returns to homeownership the purpose of this paper is to provide a simple framework in which to analyze the impact of a perfectly anticipated increase in the future selling price of houses on current house purchase decisions in the presence of capital market imperfections since implicitly it is the after tax selling price of houses that is considered this analysis is equivalent to one of a decrease in the capital gains tax on houses at retirement in this paper assumptions about homeownership mortgage markets and liquidity constraints are added to a life cycle model of asset accumulation taking the date of house purchase as exogenous it is shown that the impact of an exogenous increase in the expected future price of houses depends on current mortgage market conditions the future price of houses relative to the current price and the ratio of liquid assets to future labor income as well as preferences also a simple model of a market for houses is presented to analyze the impact of an increase in the expected future price of houses on the current market clearing price the mortgage market and the redistribution of the housing stock to consumers according to their wealth and liquidity characteristics in the life cycle model as exposited by franco modigliani and robert brumberg an increase in consumption in one period requires a decrease in consumption in another period when owner occupied housing is added to the model the tradeoff between consumption in different periods becomes more complex purchasing a larger house entails an increase in the consumption of housing services and an increase in assets held in the form of a house but a decrease in either nonhousing consumption or the holdings of an alternative asset or both the response of the consumer to price or income changes is also limited by financial market constraints capital market imperfections have been introduced into the life cycle model by a number of authors see for example lester thurow thayer watkins thomas russell clark wiseman and christopher pissarides and several authors have explicitly considered the impact of capital market imperfections on the house purchase decision see william dolde and james tobin william poole donald lessard and modigliani and dolde most similar to this study although developed independently roland artle and p varaiya s paper includes the theoretical incorporation of the house purchase decision into a life cycle model they consider the problem of choosing the date of house purchase while treating the level of consumption of housing services as exogenous in the life cycle model in this paper the consumer chooses the size of house to purchase at an exogenous date to use the life cycle model in the framework of a market of houses it is assumed that the stock of houses and the prices of all other goods including the rate of return on the alternative asset are fixed all consumers are identical except perhaps for initial wealth as noted by irving fisher p 325 in a world of perfect foresight and perfect markets the rates of return on all assets are equated in equilibrium if markets are perfect with the stock of houses and other prices fixed the present price of houses will rise by an amount equal to the present value of an exogenous increase in a future price of houses when mortgage market imperfections are introduced this relationship no longer holds and a future price increase may result in a redistribution of the current stock assistant professor of economics university of michigan this paper is an extension of a chapter of my doctoral thesis at the university of wisconsin madison the helpful comments of donald d hester charles a wilson hal varian and george borts are gratefully acknowledged

the concept of quality and the efficiency of markets for consumer products can consumers trust prices to be good quality indicators previous studies based on quality data from consumer reports have indicated that the relation of price to overall quality is quite weak this paper demonstrates that these studies are methodologically invalid by showing that the concept of overall quality has many dimensions to what extent do inefficient variants occur in the market previous studies have suggested that there is a considerable degree of inefficiency in the market alternative calculations imply that inefficient variants are in fact frequent but that the loss to consumers is much lower than previously suggested

heterogeneity within communities a stochastic model with tenure choice standard explanations for the income heterogeneity within neighborhoods rely on differences of preferences across households and heterogeneity of the housing stock we propose an alternative and complementary explanation we construct a stochastic equilibrium sorting model where 1 income is the sole dimension of household heterogeneity 2 households form state contingent housing location plans that may involve moves over their lifetimes 3 households choose whether to own or rent depending on the housing expenditure risk associated with each tenure mode and 4 there is a probability that newcomer households move in and compete for homes with native households income mixing within neighborhood arises for two reasons first allowing natives to form state contingent housing location plans breaks the indivisibility of housing consumption implicit in the literature where households choose their location once and for all second natives can insure themselves against rent fluctuations by buying their home prior to the realization of the population shock newcomers cannot as a result poorer natives stay in the more desirable communities and only richer newcomers move in these communities evidence from u s metropolitan areas supports the effects predicted by the model

the convergence of regional house prices in the uk the ripple effect hypothesis implies a long run convergence of regional uk house prices however despite many authors believing in the existence of such an underlying constancy statistical evidence has yet to be presented supporting this implication in this paper an alternative approach is proposed to analyse regional house price ratios in contrast to the findings of previous studies application of this new procedure results in the detection of widespread convergence of house prices in a number of regions of the uk the results suggest that the failure of previous analyses to uncover convergence is due to an underlying asymmetry in the adjustment process being ignored interestingly the form of asymmetry detected varies between regions while regions in the south east experience faster convergence following downswings in prices other regions exhibit more rapid convergence following increases in prices

the estimation of demand parameters in hedonic price models this paper shows that the econometric problem of estimating hedonic demand parameters is not a standard identification problem caused by demand supply interaction as has been often assumed estimation procedures based on this assumption lead to biased results the hedonic estimation problem is instead caused by the endogeneity of both prices and quantities when households face a nonlinear budget constraint an instrumental variables solution to this problem is suggested using instruments that exogenously shift the budget constraint

urban decline and durable housing urban decline is not the mirror image of growth and durable housing is the primary reason the nature of decline is so different this paper presents a model of urban decline with durable housing and verifies these implications of the model 1 city growth rates are skewed so that cities grow more quickly than they decline 2 urban decline is highly persistent 3 positive shocks increase population more than they increase housing prices 4 negative shocks decrease housing prices more than they decrease population 5 if housing prices are below construction costs then the city declines and 6 the combination of cheap housing and weak labor demand attracts individuals with low levels of human capital to declining cities

jurisdictional homogeneity and the tiebout hypothesis abstract in this paper an alternative to the capitalization approach to testing the tiebout model is presented the tiebout foot voting mechanism suggests that households will sort and stratify into approximately homogeneous local public goods jurisdictions at a point in time the efficiency of the sort will be positively related to the number of existing jurisdictions using a measure of homogeneity introduced by theil the relationship between stratification homogeneity within jurisdiction and number of jurisdictions is tested for a sample of school districts within 33 smsas the tiebout stratification hypothesis is confirmed

what happens during recessions crunches and busts we provide a comprehensive empirical characterization of the linkages between key macroeconomic and financial variables around business and financial cycles for 21 oecd countries over the period 1960 2007 in particular we analyse the implications of 122 recessions 113 28 credit contraction crunch episodes 114 28 episodes of house price declines busts 245 61 episodes of equity price declines busts and their various overlaps in these countries over the sample period our results indicate that the interactions between macroeconomic and financial variables can play a major role in determining the severity and duration of a recession specifically we find evidence that recessions associated with credit crunches and house price busts tend to be deeper and longer than other recessions stijn claessens m ayhan kose and marco e terrones

dissecting the cycle a methodological investigation following burns and mitchell we define the cycle as a pattern in the level of aggregate economic activity an algorithm to locate turning points is developed as is a new measure of pro cyclicality a link between turning points and the moments of the series is established thereby providing the statistical foundation that burns and mitchell s work lacked using these tools we are able to dissect cycles in terms of the contributions made by trend growth volatility serial correlation and non linear effects we dissect several models and find little evidence that certain non linear effects are important to the nature of business cycles

new estimates of quality of life in urban areas implicit markets capture compensation for intraurban and interregional differe nces in amenities and yield differences in housing prices and wages these pecuniary differences become preference based weights in a qual ity of life index hedonic equations are estimated using microdata fr om the 1980 census and assembled county based amenity data on climati c environmental and urban conditions ranking of 253 urban counties reveals substantial variation within as well as among the 185 urba n areas the quality of life differences across counties within one s msa is almost one half of the difference between the top and bottom ranked counties in the nation copyright 1988 by american economic association

dynamic asset pricing in a system of local housing markets for most people buying a house is one of the most significant investment decisions of their lifetimes economists have mainly focused on the consumption aspects of this process for example a typical model in urban economics might frame the decision of where to live as a discrete choice over a bundle of housing and neighborhood attributes such as location square footage schooling options and crime levels the investment side of the problem has received considerably less atten tion a surprising omission since housing assets constitute approximately two thirds of the aver age american household s financial portfolio serve an important role in saving for retirement and as has become increasingly apparent can be quite risky this paper views housing markets from an asset pricing perspective using finance theory to relate the risk premium of a housing asset the difference between its expected return and the return for a risk free investment to its exposure to risk as usual in finance what matters for the risk premium of a housing asset is its exposure to systematic risk not idiosyncratic risk in our model there are two forms of systematic risk to which housing assets are exposed national risk which is common to houses everywhere and local risk which affects all houses within a given metropolitan area but nowhere else houses are said to be of the same type h if they are located in the same metropolitan area and have the same exposure to systematic risk our main conclusions are that 1 houses of every type face a common set of risk prices for the national risk and m for the local risk specific to

buying a home with a resale value location location location we develop a dynamic multiregion model where a household s choice of housing location depends on its current wealth and its current type and involves both consumption and investment considerations the relative strength of the consumption motive and the investment motive determines the equilibrium pattern of residential sorting a strong investment consumption motive implies sorting according to household type wealth the model predicts that large house price fluctuations are associated with a low degree of sorting by type this prediction is consistent with evidence from us metropolitan areas when income education and age are used as proxies for household type

estimating the demand for the characteristics of housing a hstract estimates of the demand for the characteristics contained in a differentiated product such as housing can be based on hedonic regressions however previous studies have not dealt with several potential problems in such estimation a more appropriate framework for the estimation is provided in this paper also data from a number of cities are used to eliminate the identification problem and the endogeneity of the marginal prices derived from non linear hedonic equations is considered in the estimation the results on own and cross price elasticities expenditure elasticities and the effects of socio economic vafiables accord well with expectations

equity and efficiency in human capital investment the local connection a general model of community formation and human capital accumulation with social spillovers and decentralized school funding is used to analyse the causes of economic segregation and its consequences for equity and efficiency significant polarization arises from minor differences in endowments preferences or access to capital markets this makes income inequality more persistent across generations but the same need not be true for wealth equilibrium stratification tends to be excessive resulting in low aggregate surplus whether state equalization of school resources can remedy these problems hinges on how purchased social and family inputs interact in education and in mobility decisions

spatial lock in do falling house prices constrain residential mobility abstract falling house prices have caused numerous homeowners to suffer capital losses those with little home equity may be prevented from moving because of imperfections in housing finance markets the proceeds from the sale of their home may be insufficient to repay their mortgage and provide a down payment on a new home a data set of mortgages is used to examine the magnitude of these constraints estimates show that average mobility would have been 24 higher after 3 years had house prices not declined and after 4 years it would have been 33 higher among those with high initial loan to value ratios the differences are even greater

housing quality differentials in urban areas abstract this paper applies an equilibrium quality theory for differentiated products to estimate the willingness to pay for improvements in the air quality of chicago cleveland dallas houston and indianapolis the empirical results show i that the structural approach and the standard nonstructural approach give very different benefit figures even for small improvements in air quality and ii that a uniform improvement in air quality implies significant distributional effects

residential mobility housing equity and the labour market henley a g 1998 residential mobility housing equity and the labour market economic journal 108 447 414 427

assessing the importance of tiebout sorting local heterogeneity from 1850 to 1990 this paper argues that long run trends in geographic segregation are inconsistent with models where residential choice depends solely on local public goods the tiebout hypothesis we develop an extension of the tiebout model that predicts as mobility costs fall the heterogeneity across communities of individual public good preferences and of public good provision must weakly increase given the secular decline in mobility costs these predictions can be evaluated using historical data we find decreasing heterogeneity in policies and proxies for preferences across i a sample of u s municipalities 1870 1990 ii all boston area municipalities 1870 1990 and iii all u s counties 1850 1990

neighborhood income distributions this paper studies the distribution of income within neighborhoods and contrasts it with the national income distribution it relies on a unique feature of the american housing survey whose 1985 1989 and 1993 waves of interviews provide data for small residential neighborhoods these consist of a dwelling unit and up to ten of its nearest neighbors most previous work on neighborhoods has used information for much larger groupings of the population such as census tracts the paper employs a variety of parametric and nonparametric econometric tools to study income sorting across us residential neighborhoods it documents the patterns of dependence among neighbors income and imperfect sorting with moderate but very significant correlation among incomes of neighbors and of considerable income mixing in u s neighborhoods

tiebout and redistribution in a model of residential and political choice abstract the paper considers a two community model with freely mobile individuals individuals differ not only in their incomes but also in their tastes for a local public good in each jurisdiction the amount of public services is determined by majority vote of the inhabitants and local spending is financed by a residence based linear income tax when making their residential and political choices individuals thus face a trade off between the provisionary and redistributive effects of policies we analyze this trade off and show that tiebout like sorting equilibria often exist if the spread in tastes among individuals is very large an almost perfect sorting according to preferences emerges otherwise a partial sorting prevails and stratification into rich and poor communities is more pronounced importantly we demonstrate that all these sorting equilibria exist whether or not individuals are allowed to relocate after voting

hedonic prices and implicit markets estimating demand and supply functions for differentiated products in choosing the level of quality to purchase the buyer of a differentiated product also chooses a point on the marginal price schedule for that product hence in general the demand functions for product characteristics cannot be consistently estimated by ordinary least squares market equilibrium results in a matching of characteristics of demanders and suppliers this matching restricts the use of buyer and seller characteristics as instruments when estimating demand and supply functions for product characteristics the paper develops these issues a stochastic structure for hedonic equilibrium models is then proposed identification results are presented and estimation procedures are outlined