occupational choice and the process of development this paper models economic development as a process of institutional transformation by focusing on the interplay between agents occupational decisions and the distribution of wealth because of capital market imperfections poor agents choose working for a wage over self employment and wealthy agents become entrepreneurs who monitor workers only with sufficient inequality however will there be employment contracts otherwise there is either subsistence or self employment thus in static equilibrium the occupational structure depends on distribution since the latter is itself endogenous we demonstrate the robustness of this result by extending the model dynamically and studying examples in which initial wealth distributions have long run effects in one case the economy develops either widespread cottage industry self employment or factory production employment contracts depending on the initial distribution in the other example it develops into prosperity or stagnation

does financial reform raise or reduce saving the effect of financial liberalization on private saving is theoretically ambiguous not only because the link between interest rate levels and saving is itself ambiguous but also because financial liberalization is a multidimensional and phased process sometimes involving reversals using principal components we construct 25 year time series indices of financial liberalization for each of eight developing countries chile ghana indonesia korea malaysia mexico turkey and zimbabwe these are employed in an econometric analysis of private saving in these countries our results cannot offer support for the hypothesis that financial liberalization will increase saving on the contrary the indications are that liberalization overall and in particular those elements that relax liquidity constraints may be associated with a fall in saving

do financial reforms help stabilize inequality abstract we explore the relationship between financial reforms and income inequality using a panel of 29 countries in 1975 2005 we extend panel unit root tests to allow for the presence of some financial reform covariates and further suggest an associated but novel semi parametric approach results demonstrate that although both gross and net gini indices follow a unit root process this picture can change when financial reform indices are accounted for in particular while gross gini coefficients are generally not stabilized by financial reforms net measures are more likely to be thus financial reforms enacted in the presence of a strong safety net would seem preferable

the case for restricting fiscal policy discretion this paper studies the effects of discretionary fiscal policy on output volatility and economic growth using data for 91 countries we isolate three empirical regularities 1 governments that use fiscal policy aggressively induce significant macroeconomic instability 2 the volatility of output caused by discretionary fiscal policy lowers economic growth by more than 0 8 percentage points for every percentage point increase in volatility 3 prudent use of fiscal policy is explained to a large extent by the presence of political constraints and other political and institutional variables the evidence in the paper supports arguments for constraining discretion by imposing institutional restrictions on governments as a way to reduce output volatility and increase the rate of economic growth

inequality leverage and crises the paper studies how high leverage and crises can arise as a result of changes in the income distribution empirically the periods 1920 1929 and 1983 2007 both exhibited a large increase in the income share of the rich a large increase in leverage for the remainder and an eventual financial and real crisis the paper presents a theoretical model where these features arise endogenously as a result of a shift in bargaining powers over incomes a financial crisis can reduce leverage if it is very large and not accompanied by a real contraction but restoration of the lower income group s bargaining power is more effective

income distribution and macroeconomics this paper analyzes the role of wealth distribution in macroeconomics through investment in human capital it is shown that in the presence of credit markets imperfections and indivisibilities in investment in human capital the initial distribution of wealth affects aggregate output and investment both in the short and in the long run as there are multiple steady states this paper therefore provides an additional explanation for the persistent differences in per capita output across countries furthermore the paper shows that cross country differences in macroeconomic adjustment to aggregate shocks can be attributed among other factors to differences in wealth and income distribution across countries

the real consequences of market segmentation we study the real effects of market segmentation due to credit ratings using a matched sample of firms just above and just below the investment grade cutoff these firms have similar observables including average investment rates however flows into high yield mutual funds have an economically significant effect on the issuance and investment of the speculative grade firms relative to their matches especially for firms likely to be financially constrained the effect is associated with the discrete change

pareto superiority of unegalitarian equilibria in stiglitz model of wealth distribution with convex saving function this paper extends the conclusions obtained by stiglitz and others about the asymptotic wealth distribution in the neo classical growth model when the saving function is convex it is shown not only that locally stable two class unegalitarian equilibria may exist along with the egalitarian equilibrium but also that they necessarily are pareto superior to it more generally the paper also analyzes the class of pareto optimal unegalitarian equilibria

inequality credit and financial crises in the three decades leading up to the financial crisis of 2008 09 income inequality rose across much of the developed world this has led to a vigorous debate as to whether widening inequality was somehow to blame for the crisis by driving private sector credit booms despite growing interest empirical evidence on an inequality fragility relationship is limited based on a panel analysis of 18 oecd organisation for economic co operation and development countries for the years 1970 2007 this study provides evidence of a positive relationship between income concentration and private sector indebtedness once other traditional drivers are controlled for if confirmed the implications of this result are as follows i the view that the distribution of income is irrelevant to macroeconomic stability as implicit in mainstream approaches needs further investigation and ii in order to make the financial system more robust policy makers should cast the net wider than monetary policy and regulatory reforms and consider the effects of changes to distributive patterns

financial institutions and markets across countries and over time the updated financial development and structure database this article introduces the updated and expanded version of the financial development and structure database the database includes indicators on the size efficiency and stability of banks nonbank financial institutions and equity and bond markets over 1960 2007 it also contains indicators of financial globalization

in kind finance a theory of trade credit it is typically less profitable for an opportunistic borrower to divert inputs than to divert cash therefore suppliers may lend more liberally than banks this simple argument is at the core of our contract theoretic model of trade credit in competitive markets the model implies that trade credit and bank credit can be either complements or substitutes among other things the model explains why trade credit has short maturity why trade credit is more prevalent in less developed credit markets and why accounts payable of large unrated firms are more countercyclical than those of small firms

law finance and firm growth we investigate how differences in legal and financial systems affect firms use of external financing to fund growth we show that in countries whose legal systems score high on an efficiency index a greater proportion of firms use long term external financing an active though not necessarily large stock market and a large banking sector are also associated with externally financed firm growth the increased reliance on external financing occurs in part because established firms in countries with well functioning institutions have lower profit rates government subsidies to industry do not increase the proportion of firms relying on external financing the corporate finance literature suggests that market imperfections caused by conflicts of interest and informational asymmetries between corporate insiders and investors constrain firms in their ability to fund investment projects the magnitude of these imperfections depends in part on the effectiveness of the legal and financial systems because these systems differ across countries the literature implies that there should exist systematic cross country differences in firms ability to obtain external capital to finance investment in this paper we examine whether the underdevelopment of legal and financial systems does prevent firms in some countries from investing in potentially profitable growth opportunities in particular we focus on the use of long term debt or external equity to fund growth see our earlier work demirgut kunt and maksimovic 1996a which compares firms financial structures in developed and developing countries and finds the greatest difference to be in the provision of long term credit we estimate a financial planning model to obtain the maximum growth rate that each firm in our thirty country sample could attain without access to long term financing we then compare these predicted growth rates to growth rates realized by firms in countries with differing degrees of development in their legal and financial systems our approach enables us to identify specific characteristics of the legal and financial systems that are associated with long term financing of firm growth thus we provide a micro level test of the hypoth

financial openness market structure and private credit an empirical investigation consistent with recent theoretical models this paper finds that financial openness has a positive effect on private credit in economies characterized by a competitive banking sector but that this effect vanishes and even becomes negative in economies with imperfect banking competition

finance inequality nexus the long and the short of it financial development affects income inequality differently in the short and in the long term investigating oecd countries from 1870 2011 we find in the short run an improvement in financial development tends to reduce inequality while in the long run more finance contributes to more inequality the short run effect concurs with theories advocating financial development increases the availability of financial services primarily for the poor however this effect becomes nil within a few years results thus imply that policies aimed at reducing inequality through improving access of the poor to finance need to be carefully designed to ensure longevity of impact

financial development growth and the distribution of income a paradigm is presented in which both the extent of financial intermediation and the rate of economic growth are endogenously determined financial intermediation promotes growth because it allows a higher rate of return to be earned on capital and growth in turn provides the means to implement costly financial structures thus financial intermediation and economic growth are inextricably linked in accord with the goldsmith mckinnon shaw view on economic development the model also generates a development cycle reminiscent of the kuznet hypothesis in particular in the transition from a primitive slow growing economy to a developed fast growing one a nation passes through a stage in which the distribution of wealth across the rich and poor widens

asset liquidity and indivisibility abstract we study asset liquidity in a search theoretic framework where divisible assets can facilitate exchange for an indivisible consumption good the distinctive characteristics of our theory are that the asset dividend can be either positive or negative and buyers can choose whether or not to carry the asset and trade for the indivisible good buyers participation determines the demand for asset liquidity thus the asset price carries a liquidity premium component which reflects the function of the asset in facilitating trade the economy features multiple equilibria when the asset dividend is negative due to the trade off between the probability of trade and the endogenous cost of holding assets

inequality does cause underdevelopment insights from a new instrument consistent with the provocative hypothesis of engerman and sokoloff 1997 2000 this paper confirms with cross country data that agricultural endowments predict inequality and inequality predicts development the use of agricultural endowments specifically the abundance of land suitable for growing wheat relative to that suitable for growing sugarcane as an instrument for inequality is this paper s approach to problems of measurement and endogeneity of inequality the paper finds inequality also affects other development outcomes institutions and schooling which the literature has emphasized as mechanisms by which higher inequality lowers per capita income it tests the inequality hypothesis for development institutional quality and schooling against other recent hypotheses in the literature while finding some evidence consistent with other development fundamentals the paper finds high inequality to independently be a large and statistically significant barrier to prosperity good quality institutions and high schooling

the inequality credit nexus abstract this paper explores the inequality credit nexus from both a theoretical and an empirical perspective the paper develops an overlapping generation model in which the effect of income inequality on private credit depends on the countries per capita income and on the quality of laws protecting creditor rights the model predicts that greater inequality leads to higher levels of private credit in countries with low per capita incomes and weak legal rights while this effect is ambiguous or negative in economies with higher aggregate income and stronger credit protection using a panel dataset of 155 countries over the 1982 2015 period the paper shows empirical evidence that is robust and consistent with the model s predictions the paper s major finding suggests a credit channel through which inequality may affect economic outcomes

government debt and corporate leverage international evidence abstract we empirically investigate the impact of government debt on corporate financing decisions in an international setting we show a negative relation between government debt and corporate leverage using data on 40 countries between 1990 2014 this negative relation is stronger for government debt that is financed domestically for firms that are larger and more profitable and in countries with more developed equity markets to address potential endogeneity concerns we use an instrumental variable approach based on military spending and a quasi natural experiment based on the introduction of the euro currency our findings suggest that government debt crowds out corporate debt

on the simultaneity problem in the aid and growth debate this paper shows that foreign aid has a significant positive average effect on real per capita gross domestic product gdp growth if and only if the quantitatively large negative reverse causal effect of per capita gdp growth on foreign aid is adjusted for in the growth regression instrumental variables estimates show that a 1 percentage point increase in gdp per capita growth decreased foreign aid by over 4 adjusting for this quantitatively large negative reverse causal effect of economic growth on foreign aid shows that a 1 increase in foreign aid increased real per capita gdp growth by around 0 1 percentage points

does inequality lead to a financial crisis abstract the recent global crisis has sparked interest in the relationship between income inequality credit booms and financial crises rajan 2010 and kumhof and ranciere 2011 propose that rising inequality led to a credit boom and eventually to a financial crisis in the us in the first decade of the 21st century as it did in the 1920s data from 14 advanced countries between 1920 and 2000 suggest these are not general relationships credit booms heighten the probability of a banking crisis but we find no evidence that a rise in top income shares leads to credit booms instead low interest rates and economic expansions are the only two robust determinants of credit booms in our data set anecdotal evidence from us experience in the 1920s and in the years up to 2007 and from other countries does not support the inequality credit crisis nexus rather it points back to a familiar boom bust pattern of declines in interest rates strong growth rising credit asset price booms and crises

how closely do top income shares track other measures of inequality in recent years researchers have used taxation statistics to estimate the share of total income held by the richest groups such as the top 10 or the top 1 compiling a standardised top income shares dataset for 13 developed countries i find that there is a strong and significant relationship between top income shares and broader inequality measures such as the gini coefficient this suggests that panel data on top income shares may be a useful substitute for other measures of inequality over periods when alternative income distribution measures are of low quality or unavailable

does finance alter the relation between inequality and growth this paper introduces a model in which greater inequality reduces growth in economies with low levels of financial development but that this effect is attenuated in economies with more developed systems the model also predicts that individuals in economies with developed financial markets have a higher tolerance to inequality using a panel dataset that covers a large number of countries this paper shows empirical evidence that is consistent with the main predictions of the model overall this paper s major findings highlight that some of the pernicious effects of inequality can be attenuated by improving access to credit jel d3 e6 p1 o4 i2

financial market globalization symmetry breaking and endogenous inequality of nations this paper investigates the effects of financial market globalization on the inequality of nations the world economy consists of inherently identical countries which differ only in their levels of capital stock each country is represented by the standard overlapping generations model modified only to incorporate credit market imperfection an integration of financial markets affects the set of stable steady states as it changes the balance between the equalizing force of the diminishing returns technology and the unequalizing force of the wealth dependent borrowing constraint the model is tractable enough to allow for a complete characterization of the stable steady states in the absence of the international financial market the world economy has a unique steady state which is symmetric and stable in the presence of the international financial market symmetry breaking occurs under some conditions that is the symmetric steady state loses its stability and stable asymmetric steady states come to exist in the stable asymmetric steady states the world economy is endogenously divided into the rich and poor countries the borrowing constraints are binding in the poor but not in the rich the world output is smaller the rich are richer and the poor are poorer in any of the stable asymmetric steady states than in the unstable symmetric steady state

distributive politics and economic growth a crude distinction between economics and politics would be that economics is concerned with expanding the pie while politics is about distributing it in this paper we analyze the relationship between the two we focus on how an economy s initial configuration of resources shapes the political struggle for income and wealth distribution and how that in turn affects long run growth our main conclusion is that inequality is conducive to the adoption of growth retarding policies we derive this result from a simple political economy model of growth and present cross country evidence consistent with it the key feature of our model is that individuals differ in their relative factor endowments we distinguish between two types of factors an accumulated factor called capital and a nonaccumulated factor called labor growth is driven by the expansion of the capital stock which is in turn determined by individual saving decisions long run growth is endogenous as the aggregate production function is taken to be linearly homogeneous in capital and productive government services taken together the provision of government services is financed by a tax on capital because government services are productive a small tax on