natural resources national income and economic growth in africa abstract because standard measures of aggregate income such as gross domestic product gdp do not account for natural resource depletion their use as gauges of economic performance tends to exaggerate the benefits of resource extraction accounting for natural resource depletion in 18 african countries indicates different patterns of growth than those suggested by gdp figures use of the revised measures in analyses of the link between exports and growth suggests that export expansion may generate increases in measured gdp without stimulating increased production in contrast real exchange rate alignment is correlated with growth in both conventional gdp and the revised accounts

do doctors practice defensive medicine defensive medicine is a potentially serious social problem if fear of liability drives health care providers to administer treatments that do not have worthwhile medical benefits then the current liability system may generate inefficiencies much larger than the costs of compensating malpractice claimants to obtain direct empirical evidence on this question we analyze the effects of malpractice liability reforms using data on all elderly medicare beneficiaries treated for serious heart disease in 1984 1987 and 1990 we find that malpractice reforms that directly reduce provider liability pressure lead to reductions of 5 to 9 percent in medical expenditures without substantial effects on mortality or medical complications we conclude that liability reforms can reduce defensive medical practices

the outlook for us oil dependence abstract oil dependence is defined as a dynamic problem of short and long run market power the potential monopoly power of an oil cartel depends on its market share and the elasticities of oil supply and demand while the economic vulnerability of oil consuming states depends most directly on the quantity of oil imported and the oil cost share of gross domestic product gdp of these factors only the market share of the organization of petroleum exporting countries opec cartel and the rate of growth of world oil demand are clearly different than they were 25 years ago opec still holds the majority of world oil and in the future will regain market share a hypothetical 2 year supply reduction in 2005 2006 similar in size to those of 1973 1974 or 1979 1980 illustrates the potential benefits to opec and harm to the us economy of a future oil price shock opec s revenues are estimated to increase by roughly 0 7 trillion while the us economy loses about 0 5 trillion strategic petroleum reserves seem ineffective against a determined multi year supply curtailment increasing the market s price responsiveness by improving the technologies of oil supply and oil demand can greatly reduce the costs of oil dependence each element of this interpretation of the oil dependence problem is well supported by previous studies this paper s contribution is to unite these elements into a coherent explanation and to point out the enormously important implications for energy policy

do oil producers act as oil igopolists in this paper the author analyzes an oligopoly model of exhaustible resource extraction and develop predictions about relative extraction patterns of different producers using the open quote oil close quote igopoly model of loury one can show that producers with large stocks produce a larger amount but a smaller percentage of their stocks than producers with small stocks the authors extend loury s model to cases where extraction costs differ among producers and where costs are a function of cumulative extraction an increase in extraction costs for a producer causes it to produce less relative to its rivals when extraction costs rise with cumulative extraction producers with large reserves tend to have lower extraction costs and a smaller ratio of cumulative production to initial reserves than producers with small reserves the authors test the predictions of the model using oil industry data and find that the empirical results are consistent with the predictions of open quotes oil close quotes igopoly theory producers with larger reserves extract a smaller share of their reserves and have lower production costs than producers with smaller reserves this pattern holds for 73 countries with oil reserves during the time period 1970 1989 and for approximately 400 us oil companies in 1983 and 1984 more the observed pattern of production for both opec and non opec producers is consistent with open quote oil close quote igopoly theory opec producers do not appear to restrain production given their level of reserves relative to non opec producers thus viewing the oil market as containing one dominant firm opec with a competitive fringe may be misleading further the pattern of extraction observed in oil markets is inconsistent with the pattern predicted by competitive theory 29 refs 5 figs 6 tabs less

the consequences of the growth of health insurance premiums in the united states two thirds of the nonelderly population is covered by employerprovided health insurance ehi according to a kaiser family foundation national survey 2003 the cost of ehi has increased by over 59 percent since 2000 with no accompanying increase in the scale or scope of benefits these increases in health insurance premiums may have significant effects on labor markets including changes in the number of jobs hours worked per employee wages and compensation packages indeed it is possible that a significant portion of the increase in the uninsured population may be a consequence of employers shedding this benefit as health insurance premiums rise understanding how labor market characteristics affect adjustments to increased health insurance costs is of vital policy importance some proposals to cover the uninsured rely on employer mandates requiring employers to cover eligible workers other proposals provide tax credits for the purchase of non employer health insurance the effects of these proposals on employment wages and health insurance coverage will be driven by the elasticities of labor supply and demand institutional constraints on wages and compensation packages and how much workers value the increase in health insurance costs since employers provide such coverage voluntarily if workers fully value these benefits and are able to sort between firms based on their preferences then in the absence of other institutional constraints they will bear the cost of the increase via reduced wages with no accompanying change in employment employment costs or employee utility there are many reasons to believe however that firms are limited in their ability to offset increases in the price of health insurance premiums through lower compensation so that increases in the cost of providing health insurance may affect both employment and the structure of work identifying the magnitude of these effects empirically is difficult both because of data availability and because of multiple avenues for causality in this paper we uncover the causal effect of increases in the cost of benefits on labor market outcomes by exploiting an exogenous source of variation in the cost of providing health insurance the recent medical malpractice crisis in which malpractice costs for physicians grew dramatically in some states but not in others the growth in malpractice payments affects malpractice insurance premiums and health insurance premiums but it should not affect other aspects of employment see baicker and chandra 2005b using this source of variation we examine the effect of increases in health insurance premiums on employment patterns earnings and health insurance coverage we find that the cost of increases in health insurance premiums is borne in large part by workers through increased unemployment and also through decreased hours for those workers moved from full time jobs with benefits to parttime jobs without these results have strong implications for the distributional impact of health care reforms both authors economics department dartmouth college 6106 rockefeller hall hanover nh 03755 dartmouth medical school and national bureau of economic research e mails kbaicker dartmouth edu achandra dartmouth edu we thank alan garber seth seabury jonathan skinner and douglas staiger for helpful conversations that have influenced this research program and derek neal aaron yelowitz and conference participants at the berger conference for very insightful comments we are grateful for funding from nia p01 ag19783 02 the opinions in this paper are those of the authors and should not be attributed to the nia or nber 1 based on tabulations of population under age 65 from the march current population survey for 1988 2003 2 there is a wide literature estimating the wage fringe trade off a 1 increase in the value of fringes may be offset by a 1 reduction in wages or a 1 1 tax rate reduction for tax favored benefits for example jonathan gruber 1994 demonstrates that the passage of the pregnancy discrimination act in 1978 resulted in employers shifting the entire cost of the mandate onto employees

national product related welfare measures in the presence of technological change externalities and uncertainty the purpose of this paper is to discuss under what conditions welfare can be measured by observables related to the national product or hamiltonian along the optimal trajectory under nonattributable technological or environmental change welfare will depend on time itself meaning that the hamiltonian along the optimal trajectory will be a biased measure of welfare this result will also hold if we make the time dependence of welfare endogenous by replacing technological change will externalities that are not internalized during optimization on the other hand if we take the externalities fully into account then the hamiltonian will represent the appropriate measure of welfare similar results also hold in the case of uncertainty where we show that a generalized hamiltonian provides a welfare measure and that the deterministic measures are special cases of their stochastic counterparts

the labor market effects of rising health insurance premiums we estimate the effect of rising health insurance premiums on wages employment and the distribution of part time and full time work using variation in medical malpractice payments driven by the recent medical malpractice crisis we estimate that a 10 increase in health insurance premiums reduces the aggregate probability of being employed by 1 2 percentage points reduces hours worked by 2 4 and increases the likelihood that a worker is employed only part time by 1 9 percentage points for workers covered by employer provided health insurance this increase in premiums results in an offsetting decrease in wages of 2 3

are rising earnings profiles a forced saving mechanism this paper tests the hypothesis that rising earnings profiles are a mechanism by which individuals engage in forced saving it does this by examining the cross sectional relationship between overwithholding on income tax payments behavior that is consistent with a preference for forced saving and the slopes of age earnings profiles the forced saving hypothesis receives support from earnings regression estimates individuals who receive tax refunds are on earnings profiles that are significantly steeper and have significantly lower intercepts copyright 1995 by royal economic society

social accounting and welfare measurement in a growth model with human capital this paper addresses social accounting and welfare measurement in an economy where human capital is an important factor in the economic system human capital accumulation depends on the time consumers spend in education however human capital is also a separate argument in the production function facing firms which gives rise to a production externality in a command optimum where the externality is internalized we show that an augmented nnp measure is the appropriate welfare indicator we also discuss the taxtransfer system required for the decentralized economy to reach a command optimum

economic growth pollution and renewable resources abstract this paper first analyzes a model of economic growth with stock pollution allowing smooth substitution between emissions and reproducible capital when emissions are optimally controlled the steady state consumption is lower than without pollution control but the optimal steady state equilibrium may not exist if the marginal productivity of capital is bounded the steady state is shown to be a local saddle point independent of the rate of discount if pollution is not controlled a competitive economy moves along a stable growth path toward a too heavily polluted steady state next a growth model in which pollution affects the growth of renewable resources is presented the conditions for the existence and saddle point property of the steady state are given and the consequences of nonoptimal externality taxes are discussed when renewable resources are included higher than optimal pollution may decrease steady state consumption contrary to the case where renewable resources are ignored

did community rating induce an adverse selection death spiral evidence from new york pennsylvania and connecticut using data from the 1987 to 1996 march current population surveys we find no evidence for the dire predictions of some that the imposition of pure community rating leads to a market wide reduction in insurance coverage by setting off an adverse selection death spiral specifically the percentage of individuals in small groups covered by health insurance did not fall in new york which enacted community rating legislation in 1993 relative to either pennsylvania which enacted no insurance reform or connecticut which enacted moderate insurance reforms without imposing community rating consistent with the predictions of the simple rothschild and stiglitz 1976 framework however we find that the new yorkreforms appear to have had a significant impact on the structure of the new yorkinsurance mark et specifically new yorkexperienced a dramatic shift away from indemnity insurance toward hmos while this shift tookplace during a period of nationwide increases in the percentage with managed care the increase in hmo penetration in new york s small group and individual markets was significantly greater than in pennsylvania or connecticut

the role of technological progress in testing adjusted net savings evidence from oecd countries abstract in this paper we investigate the relationship between comprehensive measures of savings and changes in future consumption in oecd countries this relationship is at the basis of the interpretation of adjusted net savings as a weak sustainability indicator and so evidence of its validity provides support to the use of this indicator we construct various measures of comprehensive savings for 20 oecd countries to include depletion from non renewable resources human capital investment and technological progress given their importance especially for rich countries we focus on the role of technical progress and human capital in the form of changes in education level we do not find strong evidence in favor of including green adjustments in the conventional net savings however we find compelling evidence for the inclusion of technological progress since this involves a forward looking term the above result suggests that to construct an indicator of weak sustainability from conventional net savings some estimate of future technological progress is needed

adverse selection in health insurance markets evidence from state small group health insurance reforms abstract the past decade witnessed major changes in state laws governing the sale of health insurance to small employers states took measures to restrict insurers ability to distinguish between high and low risk customers because of concern about the low rate of coverage among workers in small firms the high prices in the small group market and the absence of federal health reform using both individual level and employer level data i test predictions about the effect of reforms on the employer provided health insurance market i estimate these effects for small firms and their workers using large firms and their workers in the same states as well as large and small firms and their workers in non reform states as comparison groups i find the reforms decreased the rate of employer coverage on average for workers in small firms by less than two percentage points within small firms low expenditure individuals experienced a larger decline in the rate of coverage through their employer while the coverage rate of high expenditure individuals rose slightly in some specifications there is also evidence that comprehensive reforms increased premiums slightly for small employers and that most of this increase was passed on to workers through higher employee contributions

opec stability an empirical assessment abstract we develop some elementary measures of cartel stability using opec as a case study to evaluate whether behaviour in a market can be characterized as cooperative or competitive common views among economists are that opec is either not a viable cooperative organization or that saudi arabia is the swing producer holding opec together we apply the concept of reserve sacrifice and capacity sacrifice ratios and also use the variability of production to analyse opec behaviour the analysis is based on annual data for the 10 most important opec countries from 1973 85 our empirical tests indicate that cooperation among the principal opec nations has been fairly great over the entire period

the end of cheap oil bottom up economic and geologic modeling of aggregate oil production curves there is a lively debate between concerned and unconcerned analysts regarding the future availability and affordability of oil we critically examine two interrelated and seemingly plausible ar

pollution tax design and green national accounting abstract this paper concerns social accounting when pollution gives rise to a consumption externality the purpose of the paper is to reconcile the willingness to pay technique as a means of collecting information put forward in earlier studies with the growth theoretical approach to social accounting this is accomplished by designing approximations of pigouvian emission taxes on the basis of currently available willingness to pay information the paper analyses the welfare effects of these taxes as well as to what extent they can be used to measure approximately the value of depletion of environmental capital in the national accounts

estimating a firm s age productivity profile using the present value of workers earnings in hiring new workers risk neutral employers equate the present expected value of each worker s compensation to the present expected value of his her productivity data detailing how present expected compensation varies with the age of hire embed therefore information about how productivity varies with age this paper infers age productivity profiles using data on the present expected value of earnings of new hires of a fortune 1000 firm for each of the five occupation sex groups considered productivity falls with age with productivity exceeding earnings for young workers and vice versa for older workers

net national product as an indicator of sustainability net national product nnp can potentially serve several objectives among others to measure value added and to be an indicator of welfare in the aftermath of the world commission on environment and development however it also seems important to investigate whether the concept of nnp can serve as an indicator of sustainability my point of departure following hicks 1946 ch 14 is therefore to require that nnp should measure what can be consumed in the present period without reducing future consumption possibilities and in line with this to argue that the nnp should equal the maximum per capita consumption level that can be sustained if sufficiently many facilitating assumptions are made then a concept of nnp that serves as an exact indicator of sustainability can easily be constructed for instance for a closed economy with a constant population a stationary technology and with only one capital good it follows that the present does not reduce future consumption possibilities if and only if it does not decrease the stock of the single capital good hence under the assumption that the one capital good k is identical to the one consumption good x nnp defined as y x k measures the maximal sustainable consumption at time t because then x y is equivalent to k the purpose of this note is to establish that with multiple capital goods it is not in general possible to construct an exact indicator of sustainability on the

profitability and supply price in the us domestic oil industry implications for the political economy of oil in the twenty first century in may 2001 the us government s national energy policy development group proposed to increase investment in domestic oil resources and to diversify further the sourcing of us oil imports by increasing production in new petroleum provinces the paper argues that both strands of this policy are dependent upon a third unstated objective to ensure that opec retains sufficient market power to prevent the sort of collapse in world oil prices that occurred in 1998 99 the consequences of that collapse when the real price of us oil fell to its lowest level in 53 years are explored finally it is argued that the outcome of the crisis was a rapprochement between opec and the us it is suggested that the consensus between the us and opec as to the desired range within which the world oil price should move is likely to survive any temporary political disturbances copyright 2003 oxford university press

energy security externalities and policies abstract in this paper we review conceptual arguments and empirical evidence related to two potential sources of market failure involving energy security in doing so we consider several questions involving the distinction between externality and market inefficiency and the distinction between market failures that are amenable or not amenable to correction given our current understanding of the workings of an economy several conclusions follow from our analysis regarding the potential sources of market failure and possible remedies the problem of excess wealth transfer from exporter market power may be an issue but current knowledge of oil market behaviour is too weak to support a strong conclusion other supposed costs of oil import dependence also are not well grounded including externalities related to the vulnerability of the economy to energy price shocks

national accounts and environmental resources in the paper optimal growth theory is used to derive the appropriate definition of the net national product concept when there are environmental resources and environmental damage to take into account the basic conclusions are that conventional defined np should be corrected by deducting environmental damage and adding the value of the net change of all resources

on the welfare significance of national product under interest rate uncertainty abstract this paper examines the effects of uncertainty on the relationship between comprehensive nnp and sustainable equivalent consumption it is shown that the classical identity continues to hold in expectations when the discount factor is a stochastic diffusion process taking the form of geometric brownian motion with drift such a result may be useful as a point of departure for classifying the effects that various forms of uncertainty have on the welfare significance of national product

discount rates natural resources and the measurement of aggregate economic growth in africa abstract over the last decade there has been a growing interest in depreciation of natural capital in national income accounts within this literature there has been limited discussion of the sensitivity of measurement to the choice of discount rate and the effect of using depreciated measures of growth in empirical analyses without attempting to estimate or justify a specific discount rate this paper presents alternative sets of growth data for 18 african countries based on different assumptions of the appropriate discount rate to apply to natural capital the data sets are then used in a statistical test of the causes of economic growth results of the statistical analysis indicate sensitivity to the choice of discount rate

adjusting green nnp to measure sustainability weitzman provides a foundation for nnp as the stationary equivalent of a wealth maximizing path when there is a constant interest rate and no exogenous technological progress here the implications of weitzman s foundation are explored in a case encountered in resource models i e the case of non constant interest rates in a setting that allows for exogenous technological progress an expression for nnp is obtained that adjusts green nnp for anticipated capital gains and interest rate effects to produce a measure that indicates sustainability this result is important when measuring the relative sustainability of resource rich and resource poor countries i introduction how should net national product nnp be adjusted for the depletion of natural and environmental resources a prerequisite for examining this problem is to decide on an underlying notion of income at the personal level hicks 1946 defines income as the consumption that if kept constant would yield the same present value as a person s actual future receipts since market prices are not influenced by any single person this notion of income equals a person s maximal sustainable consumption at the national level national income can likewise be defined as the consumption that if kept constant would yield the same present value as the actual future consumption path unless the nation is a small open economy faced with given international prices this notion of national income will exceed

incorporation of risk in regional forest resource accounts abstract to be an appropriate indicator of sustainability a net income measure projected into the future should consider risk several authors have demonstrated how risk can be formally incorporated into welfare measures like green net national product nnp however the resulting measure can be considerably more complex than its deterministic counterpart a practical alternative to formally incorporating risk is to use simulations of the type outlined in this paper to provide information about the expected impact of risk this information can be used to apply a stochastic version of a sustainability rule that requires that the expected value of net income be non declining this paper discusses the importance of risk and uncertainty to welfare measurement and more specifically the measurement of net income from forest services in a region of northern alberta two different approaches to valuing resource extraction are compared the depreciation approach and the wealth based approach provide very different projections of net income we demonstrate that when a renewable resource is subject to risk the wealth based approach provides a more appropriate measure of the influence of resource use on future consumption possibilities and the sustainability of net income

the incidence of mandated maternity benefits i consider the labor market effects of mandates which raise the costs of employing a demographically identifiable group the efficiency of these policies will be largely dependent on the extent to which their costs are shifted to group specific wages i study several state and federal mandates which stipulated that childbirth be covered comprehensively in health insurance plans raising the relative cost of insuring women of childbearing age i find substantial shifting of the costs of these mandates to the wages of the targeted group correspondingly i find little effect on total labor input for that group jel 118 j32 h51 in an era of tight fiscal budget constraints mandating employer provision of workplace benefits to employees is an attractive means for a government to finance its policy agenda consequently in recent years there has been a growth of interest in mandated benefits as a tool of social policy for example the centerpiece of president bill clinton s health care proposal is mandated employer provision of health insurance and more than 20 states have man

green accounting in imperfect market economies the idea of measuring the national welfare level by using the green nnp net national product has gained much attention lately this paper summarizes the research on social accounting in imperfect market economies by putting the results into a unified framework the main contribution of the paper is to relate the form of the national welfare measure to the functioning of the economic system and therefore to explicitly address the informational requirements implicit in social accounting

paying a premium on your premium consolidation in the us health insurance industry we examine whether and to what extent consolidation in the u s health insurance industry is leading to higher employer sponsored insurance premiums we make use of a proprietary panel dataset of employer sponsored healthplans enrolling over 10 million americans annually between 1998 and 2006 to explore the relationship between premium growth and changes in market concentration we exploit the differential impact of a large national merger of two insurance firms across local markets to estimate the causal effect of concentration on market level premiums we estimate real premiums increased by approximately 7 percentage points in a typical market due to the rise in concentration during our study period we also find evidence that consolidation facilitates the exercise of monopsonistic power vis a vis physicians whose absolute employment and relative earnings decline in its wake

on the inevitable return of higher oil prices abstract must oil prices eventually return to or rise above their 1980 peak levels or will history record that high oil prices were a passing phenomenon this article argues that their return to higher levels is inevitable many perhaps most energy analysts apparently accept this view but some do not among those who expect higher oil prices there is a split on the question of when most look to the 1990s but some say it will be a century or more

renewable resources and economic sustainability a dynamic analysis with heterogeneous time preferences abstract in recent years there has been increasing interest in the study of economic sustainability and its relationship with natural resources this paper attempts to shed some light on the issue by taking into account the individual variations in time preferences for consumption and resource amenity we characterize the long run steady state analyze its asymptotic stability and explore the transational dynamics from any initial state the welfare implications of the optimal path are also discussed

health insurer market power and employer size an empirical evaluation of insurer concentration and wages through compensating differentials abstractthis article explores the differentiated effects of health insurer market concentration on net compensation of employees across distinct firm sizes consistent with the existing literature evaluating insurer market concentration and the theory of compensating differentials we find evidence of higher premiums and reduced net compensation for employees in markets with more concentrated insurers furthermore we find evidence that the magnitude of these effects is distinctly smaller for large employers this implies that mergers of large health insurance companies may have a significant impact on small businesses but that the effect is mitigated for larger employers

the welfare impact of hmo mergers abstract this paper estimates the welfare consequences of hmo mergers using data from california s small group market the analysis estimates the parameters from a differentiated products demand system the parameters are then used to simulate the effects of several hmo mergers by solving for the nash equilibrium in prices under different ownership structures even small mergers in moderately concentrated markets can result in significant consumer surplus reductions however these welfare losses can be offset by large efficiency gains the welfare consequences of hmo mergers turn less upon demand side considerations than on the health plan s ability to realize efficiencies

accounting for the wealth of nations the net versus gross output controversy and its ramifications there has been a longstanding controversy over the use of net versus gross measures of national product in accounting for economic growth most recently reflected in several papers which have examined the role of environmental variables it is argued in this paper that the two measures are not substitutes but complements which reveal different aspects of the growth process gross product is the correct output concept for estimating the structure of production while net product is the correct concept for measuring the welfare consequences of economic growth an alternative to the conventional solow growth accounting framework is then presented in which the change in national wealth is decomposed into its component elements copyright 1992 by the editors of the scandinavian journal of economics

the market power of opec 1973 2001 we apply a multi equation dynamic econometric model on monthly data to test if the behaviour of opec as a whole or different sub groups of the cartel is consistent with the characteristics of dominant producers on the world crude oil market in the period 1973 2001 our results indicate that the producers outside opec can be described as competitive producers taking the oil price as given and maximizing profits the opec members do not fit the behaviour of price taking producers our findings of low residual demand price elasticities for opec underpin the potential market power of the producer group and are in line with the results in some recent energy studies on the other hand our findings indicate that neither opec nor different sub groups of the cartel can be characterized as a dominant producer in the period 1973 1994 however we find that the characteristics of a dominant producer to some extent fit opec core as from 1994 thus although opec clearly has affected the market price the producer g

measuringincome and measuring sustainability we examine what interpretation can be given to inclusive income understood to be consumption plus the value of the net increase in all relevant capital stocks we introduce the concept of instantaneously constant value income defined as the maximum amount the economy can consume at a moment of time and keep the expected present value of utility of current and future generations constant we argue that this income concept captures some of the concerns underlying sustainability our main result is that inclusive income equals instantaneously constant value income we show that this result holds in a very general setting and in particular carries over to models incorporating technological progress when such progress can be captured by augmented stocks of knowledge an important implication of our main result is that it provides a very simple method for deriving inclusive income which does not involve any linearization of the hamiltonian

natural resources national accounting and economic depreciation abstract the current value hamiltonian in an aggregate optimal growth problem with heterogeneous capital stocks including exhaustible renewable and environmental stocks is the nnp function routine substitutions reveal that the using up of natural resource stocks is representable as easy to interpret economic depreciation magnitudes we obtain true nnp inclusive of natural resource stock diminution implications for actual national accounting practices are also discussed

regional modelling of oil discovery and production abstract this paper outlines a new method for summarizing the exploratory and production potential of an aggregated geographical region in terms of the past history of exploration and production at the field level the analytical framework is divided into two stages first the discovery analysis describes the physical returns to exploratory drilling marginal expected field size which provide additions to the potential reserve base subsequently the production analysis specifies the economic costs of bringing new fields on stream and also describes the likely production rate from fields of distinct physical characteristics in both the exploratory stage and the production stage the negative influence of resource depletion is modelled explicitly the expected size of successive field discoveries is subject to exponential decay at a rate determined by analysis of past discovery history in the production stage production flow declines exponentially from the peak rate as the field is exhausted finally the paper contains new estimates of development cost functions that are sensitive to both economic parameters and the physical characteristics of fields the cost functions relate total investment expenditure to the size of fields the rate of extraction and the productivity of individual wells the analytical framework is illustrated by application to 37 individual regions around the world

opec and venezuelan oil production evidence against a cartel hypothesis abstract this study revisits the opec cartel hypothesis using a case study a test is conducted to see if venezuela has its production granger cause its opec quota or whether the opec quota for venezuela granger causes venezuelan production the results show both occur at different times in the short run opec s oil production quota for venezuela granger causes venezuelan production however shortly after cuts venezuela cheats on agreements suggesting a tit for tat oligopoly game which is not anti competitive in the long run we show that venezuelan oil production granger causes opec s quota for venezuela but not vice versa having venezuelan oil production granger cause opec quotas for venezuela in the long run suggests opec does not coordinate outputs as much as it reacts to them the evidence suggests venezuela is not a part of an opec anti competitive syndicate even though we show that venezuelan oil production is low an alternative explanation for why venezuela and possibly other opec members have low oil production outputs is that institutions and risk aversion not cartel participation is the cause a vector error correction model shows that there is no tendency for venezuelan oil production to converge to opec s quota for venezuela

do workers prefer increasing wage profiles we present survey data challenging the assumption implicit in analyses of labor supply that all else being equal workers prefer declining over increasing wage profiles we test several explanations for our results including that a there is something special about wages e g their association with productivity as opposed to other types of payments that induces the preference for increasing wages b utility depends not only on absolute levels of consumption but also on changes in consumption over time and c respondents who prefer increasing wage profiles are irrational and would change their behavior if the rationale for preferring declining wages were explained

health insurance as a two part pricing contract monopolies appear throughout health care we show that health insurance operates like a conventional two part pricing contract that allows monopolists to extract profits without inefficiently constraining quantity when insurers are free to offer a range of insurance contracts to different consumer types health insurance markets perfectly eliminate deadweight losses from upstream health care monopolies frictions limiting the sorting of different consumer types into different insurance contracts restore some of these upstream monopoly losses which manifest as higher rates of uninsurance rather than as restrictions in quantity utilized by insured consumers empirical analysis of pharmaceutical patent expiration supports the prediction that heavily insured markets experience little or no efficiency loss under monopoly while less insured markets exhibit behavior more consistent with the standard theory of monopoly

market power vertical integration and the wholesale price of gasoline this paper examines empirically the relationship between vertical integration and wholesale gasoline prices we use discrete and differential changes in the extent of vertical integration generated by mergers in west coast gasoline refining and retailing markets to test for incentives to raise rivals costs the research design allows us to test for a relationship between vertical integration and wholesale prices controlling for horizontal market structure cost shocks and trends we find evidence consistent with the strategic incentive to raise competitors input costs this suggests that vertical integration can have a significant impact on wholesale prices

on the role of green taxes in social accounting this paper addresses social accounting numerically in a dynamic generalequilibrium model the main purposes are to study i whether emissiontaxes based on static willingness to pay information can be used to improvethe welfare level and ii whether these taxes provide close enoughapproximations of the correct pigouvian emission tax to be useful in thecontext of social accounting the results indicate that if environmentalquality is relatively linear with respect to pollution the approximation ofthe pigouvian emission tax will bring the economy close to the sociallyoptimal solution and at the same time provide a close approximation of thevalue of net investments in environmental capital

on the welfare significance of green accounting as taught by parable abstract green nnp is a national accounting concept that subtracts off from gnp not just depreciation of capital but also depletion of environmental assets for a time autonomous technology green nnp has a rigorous welfare interpretation as an exact measure of the economy s future power to consume the present paper extends the standard framework to cover the case of labor augmenting technological progress for this special case of time dependence a powerful conceptual parable applies it is as if the conclusion from a simple minded welfare story told by the standard neoclassical one sector growth model covers a far more general situation involving any number of different types of capital any convex production possibilities set and fully optimizing behavior implications and applications are discussed

oil prices without opec a walk on the supply side abstract the rapid increases of oil prices during the 1970s are commonly regarded as prima facie evidence of monopoly power this paper applies the theory of exhaustible resources to estimate the equilibrium oil prices also known as efficiency prices which would have prevailed in the absence of monopoly profits the theory incorporates an extraction cost function wherein cost is a rising function of the cumulative amount of oil extracted the model is used to simulate efficiency price paths under a variety of assumptions about extraction costs and real interest rates which are representative of perceptions at various times in recent history these simulations show that the price increases of 1974 and 1979 1980 can be explained as a response to supply side changes espicially changes in the perceived cost of the backstop technology and the fall in real interest rates in the mid and late 1970s thus while efficiency prices were high in the 1970s relative to extraction costs it is plausible that average monopoly profits were negligible this situation appears to have changed in the early 1980s due to the return of real interest rates to their historic levels in early 1982 even spot prices already below official prices were substantially above the estimated efficiency or competitive price level on the other hand efficiency prices remain far above extraction costs thus even if the price setting power of opec were eroded by competition the real price of oil would not fall below the level established in 1974

do workers accept lower wages in exchange for health benefits compensating wage theory predicts that workers receiving more generous fringe benefits are paid a lower wage than comparable workers who prefer fewer fringe benefits this study tests this prediction for employer provided health insurance by modeling the wages of married women employed full time in the labor market husband s union status husband s firm size and husband s health coverage through his job are used as instruments for his wife s own employer health insurance benefits the estimates suggest wives with own employer health insurance accept a wage about 20 lower than what they would have received working in a job without benefits

a test of the hotelling valuation principle time series tests of the hotelling r percent rule for natural resource prices have not been strongly supportive but the tests and the data are subject to serious difficulties we propose here an alternative testing strategy based on another but less widely known implication of the hotelling model we test this implication which we call the hotelling valuation principle by regressing the market values of the reserves of a sample of u s domestic oiland gas producing companies on their estimated hotelling values we find that the estimated hotelling values account for a significant portion of the observed variations in market values and that the hotelling measures are better indicators of the market values of petroleum properties than two widely cited publicly available alternative appraisals

integrating the valuation of ecosystem services into the input output economics of an alpine region traditional economic accounting mostly ignores the benefits provided by nature and thus falls short in giving incentives for improving the way the economy uses natural resources in this study we develop a general framework for integrating the value of ecosystem services into an input output table in particular we integrate regionally valued ecosystem services on the supply side of an input output table to quantify what natural resources offer to economic development using several different indicators we show the benefits of the ecosystem services under the status quo and a scenario for regional development our results suggest that economic activities should be encouraged to use the ecosystem services more intensively while landscape development should aim at providing the required services we conclude that such an approach can provide a platform for decision makers to learn quantitatively about the dependency of the regional economy on natural services

modeling opec behavior theories of risk aversion for oil producer decisions abstract theories of opec such as price leadership cartel or game theoretic models suggest an incentive for opec members to expand their production capacity well above current levels in order to maximize revenues yet individual opec members consistently explore for and develop oil fields at a level well below their potential the cause of low oil exploration and development efforts among opec members and even some non opec members may have to do with risk aversion this paper describes an alternative theory for opec behavior based on risk aversion using a two piece non neumann morgenstern utility function similar to fishburn and kochenberger 1979 decision science 10 503 518 and friedman and savage 1948 journal of political economy 56 the model shows possible low oil production behavior

endogeneity in the concentration price relationship causes consequences and curses the ordinary least squares estimator of the effect of concentration on price is biased for two reasons first performance feeds back into structure causing a simultaneous equations bias second as a function of outputs or revenues measured concentration is correlated with determinants of price that are at best measured with error so measured concentration is correlated with the error term with panel data fixed effects procedures can be combined with instrumental variables to eliminate bias from both sources in concentration price regressions for the airline industry the bias can be substantial and negative copyright 1993 by blackwell publishing ltd

health insurance market reform and employee compensation the case of pure community rating in new york abstract pure community rating which was enacted to improve access to health insurance in new york s small group market in 1993 prevents carriers from charging different premiums based on the ages of a firm s workers if small firms were adjusting compensation packages prior to reform to offset higher health care costs of older workers then community rating could lead to greater relative wages for older workers post reform and not necessarily induce adverse selection that results in changes in who is insured i present evidence showing that relative wages of older workers in small firms increased in comparison with other states and with large firms within new york following reform