governmental intervention approaches to promote renewable energies special emphasis on japanese feed in tariff abstract almost all countries have issued laws and regulations to promote renewable energy re however the applications and motivations of such laws as well as achievements have been different currently the japanese government has announced its targets to expand the electricity feed in tariff scheme for solar power along with other energy sources within two years to meet the goal set by the japanese prime minister who in the 15th united nations climate change conference cop15 held in september 2009 proclaimed to cut 25 of greenhouse gas ghg emissions from the 1990 levels by 2020 in this paper the current japanese energy policies and measures for promoting re in comparison to popular methods followed worldwide are explored furthermore a least cost feed in tariff lcfit simulation model for japanese case was developed to calculate the optimal mix of technologies to reach certain targets the lcfit also calculates the tariff that should be proposed for each technology and the total cost for the program with and without a carbon tax and estimates the premium added to the bill of the customer every month

the rotten kid theorem meets the samaritan s dilemma a familiar result in the economic theory of the family is becker s rotten kid theorem this theorem states that altruism by a family member will lead other selfish members to act efficiently from the family viewpoint we extend becker s one period model to two periods and show that parental altruism can result in an inefficiency known in other contexts as the samaritan s dilemma implications of this for transfer arrangements within the family and for the ricardian equivalence theorem are drawn

an analysis of feed in tariff remuneration models implications for renewable energy investment recent experience from around the world suggests that feed in tariffs fits are the most effective policy to encourage the rapid and sustained deployment of renewable energy there are several different ways to structure a fit policy each with its own strengths and weaknesses this paper presents an overview of seven different ways to structure the remuneration of a fit policy divided into two broad categories those in which remuneration is dependent on the electricity price and those that remain independent from it this paper examines the advantages and disadvantages of these different fit models and concludes with an analysis of these design options with a focus on their implications both for investors and for society

the empirical analysis of the determinants for environmental technological change a research agenda abstract technological change is usually considered a necessary albeit not sufficient condition for a transition to sustainability however the empirical analysis of the determinants to environmental technological change has not received too much attention in the environmental ecological economics literature and many open questions remain in this context based on a careful review of the literature this paper argues that further analysis should address several issues at different levels i e regarding the conceptual framework the thematic scope of the studies some methodological issues and other aspects related to the environmental policy variable first an integrated conceptual framework which takes into account the interplay between relevant variables influencing environmental technological change i e factors internal and external to the firm and characteristics of the environmental technologies and all the stages of this process with a greater emphasis on the invention stage should be developed other aspects should then be tackled including a focus on several themes i e a greater attention to cross sectoral technologies the barriers to different types of environmental technologies the international dimension of environmental technological change and environmental technological change in small and medium size enterprises methodological issues combination of case studies and econometric modelling and several issues related to the environmental policy variable

uk innovation systems for new and renewable energy technologies drivers barriers and systems failures abstract a better understanding of the systemic processes by which innovation occurs is useful both conceptually and to inform policy making in support of innovation in more sustainable technologies this paper analyses current innovation systems in the uk for a range of new and renewable energy technologies and generates policy recommendations for improving the effectiveness of these innovation systems although incentives are in place in the uk to encourage innovation in these technologies system failures or gaps are identified in moving technologies along the innovation chain preventing their successful commercialisation sustained investment will be needed for these technologies to achieve their potential it is argued that a stable and consistent policy framework is required to help create the conditions for this in particular such a framework should be aimed at improving risk reward ratios for demonstration and pre commercial stage technologies this would enhance positive expectations stimulate learning effects leading to cost reductions and increase the likelihood of successful commercialisation

structural break nonlinearity and asymmetry a re examination of ppp proposition in this study we examine the validity of the ppp proposition for 28 european countries for this purpose we propose a new unit root test procedure that allows for both gradual structural breaks a

intergenerational altruism dynastic equilibria and social welfare are three central findings first under relatively weak conditions welfare optima cannot be implemented as dynastic equilibria with positive levels of transfers second intergenerational altruism ordinarily renders the objectives of social planners dynamically inconsistent thereby making implementation of welfare optima problematic third if a planner successfully resolves dynamic inconsistency by committing himself to respect the preferences of deceased generations and if there are a sufficient number of prior generations then in a specific set of cases dynastic equilibria are approximately welfare optimal

green electricity policies in the united states case study while there has been interest in promoting the use of renewable energy in electricity production for a number of years in the united states the market share of non hydro renewable energy sources in electricity production has remained at about 2 percent over the past decade the paper reviews the principal energy resources used for electricity production considers the changing regulatory environment for the electricity industry and describes government policies that have been used to promote green electricity in the united states with an emphasis on measures adopted by state governments factors influencing the development of green power markets are also discussed including underlying economic issues public policy measures the regulatory environment external costs and subsidies without significant increases in fossil fuel prices much more stringent environmental regulations or significant changes in electricity customer preferences green electricity markets are likely to develop slowly in the united states

what is the cost of negative bidding by wind a unit commitment analysis of cost and emissions we use a unit commitment uc model to quantify the operational impacts of subsidizing wind generation when energy prices are negative such prices occur increasingly often in u s and european union eu markets subsidies such as production tax credits feed in tariffs and renewable energy credits motivate renewable generators to submit negative price offers this lessened flexibility increases system operation and management costs and in some cases hbox co 2 emissions when energy prices are negative our simulations of large negative bids can also be interpreted as representing eu policies of granting wind absolute dispatch priority applications to four hypothetical systems with high wind penetration and distinct generation mixes quantify the uc and dispatch effects of negative bids larger negative bids lead to less wind spillage reducing the 2 8 average curtailment under 0 bids to 1 0 more conventional plant startups higher system costs and in many cases higher total rm co 2 emissions by up to 2 in some systems wind power s effective incremental emissions are as high as coal s this impact depends strongly on generation mix carbon price and the size of the negative bids in general there can be significant economic and often environmental benefits to reforming renewable support policies to encourage flexibility in operations

nonlinear purchasing power parity under the gold standard 1 introductionrecent theoretical analysis of purchasing power deviations see e g dumas 1992 sercu uppal and van hull 1995 and o connell and wei 1997 demonstrates how transactions costs or the sunk costs of international arbitrage induce nonlinear adjustment of the real exchange rate to purchasing power parity ppp globally mean reverting this nonlinear process has the important property of exhibiting near unit root behavior for small deviations from ppp since small deviations from ppp are left uncorrected if they are not large enough to cover the transactions costs or the sunk costs of international arbitrage a parametric nonlinear model suggested by the theoretical literature that captures the nonlinear adjustment process in aggregate data is the exponential smooth transition autoregression model estar of ozaki 1985 a smooth rather than discrete adjustment mechanism is motivated by the theoretical analysis of dumas 1992 also as postulated by terasvirta 1994 and demonstrated theoretically by berka 2002 in aggregate data regime changes may be smooth rather than discrete given that heterogeneous agents do not act simultaneously even if they make dichotomous decisions 1 recent empirical work e g michael nobay and peel 1997 taylor peel and sarno 2001 peel and venetis 2002 has reported empirical results that suggest that the estar model provides a parsimonious fit into a variety of data sets particular for monthly data for the interwar and postwar floating period as well as for annual data spanning 200 years as reported in lothian and taylor 1996 in addition nonlinear impulse response functions derived from the estar models show that although the speed of adjustment for small shocks around equilibrium will be highly persistent larger shocks mean revert much faster than the glacial rates previously reported for linear models rogoff 1996 in this respect the estar models provide some solution to the ppp puzzle outlined in rogoff 1996 2the estar model can also provide an explanation of why ppp deviations analyzed from a linear perspective appear to be described by either a nonstationary integrated i 1 process or alternatively described by fractional processes see e g diebold husted and rush 1991 taylor peel and sarno 2001 and pippenger and goering 1993 show that the dickey fuller tests have low power against data simulated from an estar model michael nobay and peel 1997 and byers and peel 2003 show that data that is generated from an estar process can appear to exhibit the fractional property that this would be the case was an early conjecture by acosta and granger 1995 given that the estar model has a theoretical rationale whereas the fractional process is a relatively nonintuitive one the fractional property might reasonably be interpreted as a misleading linear property of ppp deviations granger and terasvirta 1999 whereas the empirical work employing estar models provides some explanation of the glacially slow adjustment speeds obtained in linear models there is one aspect of the empirical work that is worthy of further attention a second way of explaining the rogoff puzzle raised by rogoff himself 3 is to relax the assumption that the equilibrium real exchange rate is a constant see e g canzoneri cumby and diba 1996 and chinn and johnston 1996 theoretical models such as that of balassa 1964 and samuelson 1964 imply a nonconstant equilibrium in the real exchange rate if real productivity growth rates differ between countries 4 nonlinear models that incorporate proxies for these effects are found to parsimoniously fit post bretton woods data for the main real exchange rates see venetis paya and peel 2002 and paya venetis and peel 2003 naturally models that ignore this effect may generate misleading speeds of ppp adjustment to shocks in this regard the empirical results of hegwood and papell 2002 for the gold standard period are particularly interesting

demand pull technology push and government led incentives for non incremental technical change abstract rising expectations about future demand for new technologies increase the incentives for investments in innovation by enlarging payoffs to successful innovations how well does this notion of demand pull apply to non incremental technological change when demand is largely attributable to actions by governments in this case inventors of the most important inventions did not respond positively to strong demand pull policies filing of highly cited patents declined precipitously just as demand for wind power created a multi billion dollar market three explanations for this apparent inconsistency with the demand pull hypothesis played a role 1 the rapid convergence on a single dominant design limited the market opportunity for non incremental technical improvements 2 even though the policies implemented were stringent enough to stimulate demand uncertainty in their longevity dampened the incentives for inventions that were likely to take several years to pay off and 3 alternative explanations such as declining r d funding and weakening presidential engagement on energy appear to have been important

the carnegie conjecture some empirical evidence this paper examines tax return generated data on the labor force behavior of people before and after they receive inheritances the results are consistent with andrew carnegie s century old assertion that large inheritances decrease a person s labor force participation for example a single person who receives an inheritance of about 150 000 is roughly four times more likely to leave the labor force than a person with an inheritance below 25 000 additional albeit weaker evidence suggests that large inheritances depress labor supply even when participation is unaltered warren kendall heir to an insurance company fortune says he s worth about 5 million and has an income of about oh 300 and some thousand a year h e has never held a job or wanted to going down to sea in cruise ships is his full time pursuit he estimates that he has taken about 250 cruises over the past couple of decades spending at least 50 percent to 70 percent of the year afloat morgenthaler 1991 p al

do real exchange rates contain a unit root evidence from turkish data this study explores whether the long run purchasing power parity ppp hypothesis holds for selected real exchange rates from turkish economy during the period 1982m1 2003m12 in addition to conventional unit root tests five different unit root test procedures have been applied including efficient point optimal tests extended m tests and gls detrended variants of df tests to four monthly real exchange rate series defined in terms of both producer and consumer price indices the countries analysed are the usa the uk germany and italy which are major trade partners of turkey mixed evidence is found for the long run ppp hypothesis when real exchange rate is defined in terms of german dm and italian lira however the empirical analysis reveals that the ppp hypothesis holds strongly in the long run for the uk and us based real exchange rates series using either ppi or cpi in corroboration with other studies in the literature the bias correlated half life estimates suggest relatively faster speeds of

nonlinear adjustment to purchasing power parity in the post bretton woods era abstract this paper models the dynamics of adjustment to long run purchasing power parity ppp over the post bretton woods period in a nonlinear framework consistent with the presence of frictions in international trade we estimate exponential smooth transition autoregressive estar models of deviations from ppp which are obtained using the johansen cointegration method for both consumer price index cpi and wholesale price index wpi based measures and a broad set of us trading partners in several cases we find clear evidence of a mean reverting dynamic process for sizable deviations from ppp with the equilibrium tendency varying nonlinearly with the magnitude of disequilibrium analysis of impulse response functions also supports a nonlinear dynamic structure but convergence to long run ppp in the post bretton woods era is very slow

the strategic bequest motive although recent research suggests that intergenerational transfers play an important role in aggregate capital accumulation our understanding of bequest motives remains incomplete we develop a simple model of strategic bequests in which a testator influences the decisions of his beneficiaries by holding wealth in bequeathable forms and by conditioning the division of bequests on the beneficiaries actions the model generates falsifiable empirical predictions that are inconsistent with other theories of intergenerational transfers we present econometric and other evidence that strongly suggests that bequests are often used as compensation for services rendered by beneficiaries

real and nominal effective exchange rates for african countries the real effective exchange rate is an index that is used to measure international competitiveness of a country while the international monetary fund constructs and publishes the index for all industrial and some newly industrialized countries the african nations receive no such attention in this article we construct quarterly indexes of real and nominal effective exchange rates over the 1971i 2004iii period for 21 african countries we hope by publishing this data set more research attention will be given to these countries as an application we test for the stationarity of the real effective rates to show that the purchasing power parity theory holds only in four of our 21 cases

a new analysis of the determinants of the real dollar sterling exchange rate 1871 1994 the high persistence of both ppp deviations and the proxy variables for the equilibrium real rate might create a problem of spurious coefficient significance within recently applied nonlinear models to illustrate we consider the real dollar sterling exchange rate over the period 1871 1994 a nonlinear estar process with a time varying equilibrium seems to parsimoniously fit the data appropriate significance levels are obtained using the wild bootstrap method to adequately capture the conditional heteroskedasticity in the data our results provide further evidence for the nonlinear model and the implied speed of adjustment is found to be substantially faster than previously reported in the literature

on the relationship between firm size and export intensity export marketing literature supports the view that firm size is positively related to export intensity although the empirical findings have been mixed a number of theoretical arguments are used to support this proposition i e international marketing economies of scale limited managerial and financial resources of small firms decisionmaker s risk perception based on a large survey of the italian manufacturing industry the article falsifies the proposition and challenges some widely held assumptions in export marketing literature

renewable energy support mechanisms in the gulf cooperation council states analyzing the feasibility of feed in tariffs and auction mechanisms renewable energy will be a crucial ingredient in the transition to a more sustainable future the renewable energy sector requires a variety of financial support mechanisms in order to further consolidate and expand currently the most prominent renewable energy support mechanisms are feed in tariffs and renewable energy auctions although these mechanisms have been used and analyzed extensively in western countries and more recently economies in transition they have rarely been examined in the arab gulf region yet particularly the gulf cooperation council gcc states have undertaken important steps towards renewable energy adoption which could be greatly facilitated with the use of financial support mechanisms this paper analyzes the feasibility of feed in tariffs and renewable energy auctions adoption in gcc based on an extensive meta analysis of the literature on these two mechanisms in both developed and developing countries the paper identifies a set of conditions necessary for success and evaluates the presence of favorable these conditions in the gcc context our findings reveal that while conditions that would ensure political feasibility are largely absent for both types of mechanisms auctions could be a more successful strategy at the moment

policies and legislation driving taiwan s development of renewable energy abstract under the current wave of international responses to the growing threat of climate change taiwan cannot afford to step back from its goal of advancing its renewable energy strengthening its energy self sufficiency and energy security this paper will first analyze the high level dependency structure of taiwan s energy demands then we will explore taiwan current situation in terms of renewable energy development furthermore from an overview of the course of changes and development in taiwan s energy policy highlight the commitment to and aims of taiwan s renewable energy development made by the government at the annual national energy conference fourth we shall analyse technological r d incentives taxes market reforms and other related policy tools fifth in light of public announcements and budgets set in recent years for taiwan s renewable energy research plan highlight main strategies being given impetus by the government sixth the author will discuss the implications of recent significant legal reforms to the development of renewable energy in taiwan and from the correlating aspects of industrial structures and energy consumption take the first steps in emphasizing the urgent need for adjustments to be made to taiwan s industrial structure finally this paper will conclude by examining current policies legislation and strategies which are in place to promote this area in taiwan and discuss the potential competitiveness and future scenarios which the development of renewable energy could mean for taiwan

basic concepts for designing renewable electricity support aiming at a full scale transition by 2050 abstract renewable electricity supply is a crucial factor in the realization of a low carbon energy economy the understanding is growing that a full turn over of the electricity sectors by 2050 is an elementary condition for avoiding global average temperature increase beyond 2 c this article adopts such full transition as europe s target when designing renewable energy policy an immediate corollary is that phasing in unprecedented energy efficiency and renewable generation must be paralleled by phasing out non sustainable fossil fuel and nuclear power technologies the double phasing programme assigns novel meaning to nearby target settings for renewable power as share of total power consumption it requires organizing in the medium term eu wide markets for green power a highly demanding task in the present context of poorly functional markets in brown power the eu commission s 2007 2008 proposals of expanding tradable certificates markets were not based on solid analysis of past experiences and future necessities the keystone of sound policies on renewable electricity development is a detailed scientific differentiation and qualification of renewable electricity sources and technologies for measuring the huge diversity in the field we provide but structuring concepts about such qualification because implementation requires extensive research resources support for renewable electricity development is organized via feed in prices or premiums and via quota obligations connected to tradable green certificates green certificates are dependent on physical generated renewable power but separable and no joint products contrary to conventional wisdom we argue their separation in cost analysis but firm linking during trade a few graphs illustrate the importance of assigning qualities to different renewable power sources technologies feed in systems based on an acceptable qualification perform generally better than certificate markets imposing uniform approaches on a very diverse reality for a similar reason uniform and undifferentiated taxation of non sustainable energy sources cannot replace renewable energy support schemes capable of differentiation

purchasing power parity over two centuries trends and nonlinearity in two recent contributions lothian and taylor and cuddington and liang produced empirical evidence that annual data for the dollar sterling real exchange rate spanning two centuries exhibited a non linear deterministic trend this trend could be proxying harrod balassa samuelson effects lothian and taylor showed that a linear stationary autoregressive mode which embodied a cubic trend implied much faster mean reversion of the real exchange rate to shocks than a model that excluded the trend this article shows that both non linearity and a deterministic trend can be allowed for in a theoretically appealing manner and that the fitted models provide a parsimonious explanation of both the dollar sterling and franc sterling real exchange rates over the two centuries of data generalized impulse response function analysis of the models demonstrates that the speed of adjustment to shocks can be even faster when trends are considered

post fukushima public acceptance on resuming the nuclear power program in china abstract this study investigates social perceptions electricity preference management instruments towards nuclear power in china and evaluates the extent of opposing nuclear power by estimating public willingness to pay wtp to prevent a nuclear power plant from being constructed in their local cities and the neighboring cities it is pretty important to understand the public sentiment towards recommencement of nuclear programs since public acceptance of nuclear energy is one of the determinants for government establishment of a new nuclear project especially the chinese government has resumed the approval of new nuclear power plants and planned to expand this industry in the post fukushima world the findings show that most of the respondents care about the development of nuclear power in china the publics are a bit skeptical about the security of nuclear power since they are worried about nuclear accidents in addition the government is requested to improve policy transparency which is seen as an essential way of alleviating the public nuclear anxieties in china

hysteresis in east asian unemployment high performing asian economies are quite distinctive with efficient flexible and responsive labour markets comparing the persistence of unemployment in east asian economies to that in western countries is difficult due to the data s short time spans and possible structural breaks this article employs advanced unit root tests to deal with these problems and fails to reject hysteresis in the unemployment rates of the high performing asian countries even after taking into account structural change an alternative explanation of different productivity growth for the hysteresis phenomenon of the asian countries is proposed herein

an overview of afghanistan s trends toward renewable and sustainable energies relentless environmental concerns steep hike in fossil fuel price and increasing demand of non renewable fossil fuels consumption have dramatically increased global search for alternative energies the world requests ever growing energy supplies to sustain economic development and improvement renewable and sustainable energy ever more becoming accepted and established a decisive place in energy system of the word due to ecologicallyresponsiveinsight and a decrease in equipment expenses consistent with its endowment of energy resources each country tried to figure out its own energy portfolio and employing technologies which are economically viable and socially equitable and have minimal adverse impacts this article attempts to review all possible renewable energy sources as a substitute of the current energy profile coal natural gas and petroleum in afghanistan the study found afghanistan power sector as one of the least development sector which its inadequate status is preventing the development of the country as well eventhough the energy is not the only panacea but cost effective energies in abundant quantity and quality on sustainable foundation will help to reach to demand socio economic development the results indicate that afghanistan due to its natural and geographical situations enjoys important prospective for renewable energy bases such as solar wind geothermal and micro hydro power renewable energies could offer the ultimate solution for afghanistan in general and rural areas in actual but switch to altered forms of energy is grounded in multifaceted interations the study indicates number of issues such as great upfront charges absence of providers insufficient funding appliances and feebleindorsed and methodologicalcapability overwhelm and affected the use of renewable energies and technologies in afghanistan however with sufficient investment and practical stages by government andnongovernment agencies and the public encourage these unbound sources could play a vital role not only in afghanistan s energy supply but also in poverty reduction social and political stability and improving living standard

understanding carbon lock in abstract this paper narrative argues that industrial economies have been locked into fossil fuel based energy systems through a process of technological and institutional co evolution driven by path dependent increasing returns to scale it is asserted that this condition termed carbon lock in creates persistent market and policy failures that can inhibit the diffusion of carbon saving technologies despite their apparent environmental and economic advantages the notion of a techno institutional complex is introduced to capture the idea that lock in occurs through combined interactions among technological systems and governing institutions while carbon lock in provides a conceptual basis for understanding macro level barriers to the diffusion of carbon saving technologies it also generates questions for standard economic modeling approaches that abstract away technological and institutional evolution in their elaboration the question of escaping carbon lock in is left for a future paper

purchasing power parity over two centuries abstract this paper re examines the purchasing power parity hypothesis for the dollar sterling exchange rate using the two centuries of data from lothian and taylor lt 1996 real exchange rate behavior the recent float from the perspective of the past two centuries journal of political economy 104 3 488 509 unlike lt we conclude that the dollar sterling rer is nonstationary implying a rejection of the long run ppp hypothesis the differences in our conclusions are explained by 1 sensitivity of adf unit root tests to the choice of lag length and or 2 the presence of significant time trends in the adf or phillips perron unit root test equations

nonconventional renewable energy governance in brazil lessons to learn from the german experience abstract this paper presents a comparative analysis of energy governance regarding nonconventional renewable energy sources ncres in brazil and germany brazil is a world leader in the use of conventional renewable energy sources such as hydro power while germany has been achieving outstanding results in fostering ncres the focus is on two critical issues the legal and regulatory framework and the institutions created to support the ncres market development the comparison shows that despite the very different energy situations and policy drivers valuables lessons can be extracted from the german experience the main lesson for brazil is to think ncres as a strategic opportunity to rely less on fossil fuel and large hydroelectric power plants to decentralize the electric power sector to use the huge solar biomass and wind power potential available in the country and to create a environment friendly ncres industry to this end three critical points were identified 1 the legal and regulatory framework should be improved 2 long term energy planning taking into account social economic and climate issues and 3 the current institutions supporting ncres in brazil should be upgraded and or new ones such as more specific energy agencies should be created

toward a new conception of the environment competitiveness relationship accepting a fixed trade off between environmental regulation and competitiveness unnecessarily raises costs and slows down environmental progress studies finding high environmental compliance costs have traditionally focused on static cost impacts ignoring any offsetting productivity benefits from innovation they typically overestimated compliance costs neglected innovation offsets and disregarded the affected industry s initial competitiveness rather than simply adding to cost properly crafted environmental standards can trigger innovation offsets allowing companies to improve their resource productivity shifting the debate from pollution control to pollution prevention was a step forward it is now necessary to make the next step and focus on resource productivity

charitable contributions and intergenerational transfers abstract this paper investigates the effects of bequest taxes and the income of children on the lifetime charitable contributions of parents using matched income tax records for parents and children the results show a positive elasticity of 0 6 for contributions with respect to the tax price of bequests the paper also finds that the income of children affects the amount that parents contribute to charity the results show a positive elasticity of up to 0 14 for contributions by parents with respect to the income of children implying that when children are better off parents are likely to increase charitable giving

japan s post fukushima challenge implications from the german experience on renewable energy policy the japanese electricity sector is facing serious challenges in the aftermath of the fukushima nuclear disaster the government has responded to the crisis with a new feed in tariff to promote increased utilization of renewable energy and proposed to reduce the dependence on nuclear power in this viewpoint we liken the transition implied by recently updated goals for the diffusion of renewables in japan to the transition in germany in the last decade we argue that some of the lessons learned in germany might prove valuable for the steps japan considers taking in particular we focus on the new japanese feed in tariff for solar photovoltaics in view of the recent developments in germany we emphasize the importance of the scheme s political legitimacy which needs to be maintained through adequate design of both policy instrument and political process we conclude with policy implications and a targeted research agenda

the saving of the elderly in micro and macro data examination of household micro data on the elderly has generally concluded that they do not dissave significantly whereas estimates using aggregate macro data have shown that the presence of a large elderly population leads to a lower saving rate this paper shows that if interactions between generations are important one would not expect these estimates to be the same the paper presents new evidence that bequests are plausibly the source of this discrepancy examination of data from young households that have received or expect bequests confirms that bequests are indeed an important factor determining the saving of the young

real exchange rate behavior the recent float from the perspective of the past two centuries using annual data spanning two centuries for dollar sterling and franc sterling real exchange rates we find strong evidence of mean reverting real exchange rate behavior using simple stationary autoregressive models estimated on prefloat data we easily outperform nonstationary real exchange rate models in dynamic forecasting exercises over the recent float such stationary univariate equations explain 60 80 percent of the in sample variation in real exchange rates although the degree of short run persistence may be high the econometric estimates imply a half life of shocks to the real exchange rate of about 6 years for dollar sterling and a little under 3 years for franc sterling

real and nominal effective exchange rates of african countries during 1971q1 2012q4 one of the macro variables that are included in most models is the exchange rate overall performance of a country s exchange rate is measured by changes in nominal or real effective exchange rate reer these rates are constructed and published mostly for industrial countries by international organizations less developed countries have received little attention in this article the two rates are constructed for 21 african countries using quarterly data over the period 1971q1 2012q4 as an application we use the reers to show that even in africa the movements of the real effective rates follow a nonlinear path

the influence of market demand upon innovation a critical review of some recent empirical studies abstract a number of recent empirical studies of technical change at the level of the individual firm have concluded that market demand is the dominant influence upon the innovation process calling forth innovations in market economies the pace of innovation in the private sector heavily influences the growth of national output and productivity and these studies and their conclusions have therefore received much attention having been extensively quoted in discussions of appropriate government policy for the encouragement of innovation this paper reviews a number of these studies and concludes that their findings and the interpretations of their findings in the secondary literature are seriously flawed and in many cases invalid the proposition that market demand governs the innovation process is by no means conclusively demonstrated in these studies and they are therefore inadequate and inappropriate guides for the formulation of policy most of the studies examined employ a working definition of demand factors which is so broad as to embrace a range of possible influences upon innovation which should more properly be classified elsewhere the concept of demand utilized in these studies bears little resemblance to the more restrictive and precise definition of market demand found in economics in addition the phenomena analyzed in these studies are a very heterogeneous lot the studies do not address identical empirical questions and their findings are as a result neither uniform nor unambiguous both demand and supply side influences are crucial to understanding the innovation process and it is the exclusive preoccupation with only one set of these forces which is criticized in this paper some implications of the criticism for government policy toward innovation are discussed in the conclusion

the effect of feed in tariffs on the production cost and the landscape externalities of wind power generation in west saxony germany although wind power is currently the most efficient source of renewable energy the cost of wind electricity still exceeds the market price subsidies in the form of feed in tariffs fit have been introduced in many countries to support the expansion of wind power these tariffs are highly debated proponents say they are necessary to pave the way for decarbonising energy production opponents argue they prevent a welfare optimal energy supply thus in a case study we try to shed light on the welfare economic aspect of fit by combining spatial modelling and economic valuation of landscape externalities of wind turbines we show for the planning region west saxony germany that setting fit in a welfare optimal manner is a challenging task if set too high the production costs are overly increased lowering social welfare if set too low energy production targets may not be reached and or external costs are overly increased again lowering social welfare taking a closer look at the tariffs offered by the german renewable sources energy act we find for west saxony that the tariffs quite well meet economic welfare considerations one should note however that this finding might apply only to the present data set

assessment of government support for the household adoption of micro generation systems in korea abstract this paper investigates how korean government support affects household adoption of renewable energy based micro generation systems by analyzing household preferences in relation to the costs and benefits of system installation and different kinds of government support the research adopts a discrete choice experiment approach and focuses on two micro generation technologies solar voltaic and solar thermal our empirical analysis revealed firstly that households prefer micro generation systems that have low installation costs but high energy saving benefits and long warranty periods and secondly that households prefer direct subsidies to low interest loans however we also found that households are reluctant to install photovoltaic or solar thermal systems in reality because they see the cost of system installation as being higher than the benefits they would receive from such installation in short while existing government supports are somewhat effective in promoting household adoption of micro generation systems there also exists the obstacle that the majority of households are unwilling to install such systems despite government support thus several policy improvements which focus on increasing the benefits and decreasing the installation costs of micro generation systems are suggested in this paper

a support strategy for the promotion of photovoltaic uses for residential houses in korea various policies such as feed in tariffs quota obligations and capital subsides were enacted to expand the uses of renewable energy re in many countries this study examined whether capital subsidies are cost effective in relation to the installation of solar photovoltaic pv facility to do this the capacity factor which is one of the crucial factors for determining the unit cost of electricity from a solar pv system was estimated from the monthly average clearness index data collected at various cities in korea thermoeconomic analysis was applied to calculate the unit cost of electricity based on the calculated capacity factor of the solar pv system instead of subsidizing the same percent of the capital cost of each pv system installation it is reasonable for the government to adopt a measure to match the subsidy paid to the payback period of the initial investment for all 5 million potential solar pv users in korea

an overview of incentive policies for the expansion of renewable energy generation in electricity power systems and the brazilian experience abstract energy production from renewable sources is already a reality in many countries and with that different strategies for incentivizing investments in renewable energy generation have been proposed and used over the years in this study long term policies that have been applied in several countries such as feed in tariffs shares with commercialization of certificates auctions and net metering are overviewed and discussed the main advantages and disadvantages of these incentive strategies are emphasized focusing on applications some of these strategies that have already been applied in brazil are analyzed in greater depth emphasizing the potentialities and fragilities of these mechanisms observed within the country even though it is a country that stands out in relation to other latin american countries regarding electricity generation from non hydro renewable sources brazil still faces barriers that prevent a utilization compatible with its potential moreover the trend for renewable sources such as wind and solar power is to represent an energy capacity reserve to cover hydrological risks and also to contribute to a distributed generation spread through electricity distribution networks

a paradox regarding economic support to deploy renewable energy technologies abstract from an economic viewpoint a larger reduction in the level of economic support to facilitate renewable energy installations e g the purchase price of renewable electricity under a feed in tariff scheme is not necessarily rational in accordance with a larger decline in the observed cost of the installation if the expected cost decline of the renewable technology is to be revised in response to the newest statistical data observed during each passing time period this paper demonstrates this point through an analysis of a case of japanese photovoltaic power generation deployment

escaping carbon lock in this article explores the climate policy implications of the arguments made in understanding carbon lock in unruh 2000 which posited that industrial countries have become locked into fossil fuel based energy systems through path dependent processes driven by increasing returns to scale carbon lock in arises through technological organizational social and institutional co evolution culminating in what was termed as techno institutional complex tic in order to resolve the climate problem an escape from the lock in condition is required however due to the self referential nature of tic escape conditions are unlikely to be generated internally and it is argued here that exogenous forces are probably required

why do firms do basic research with their own money abstractthe question to be addressed is why do private firms perform basic research with their own money interest in this question derives from both analytical and utilitarian considerations there is empirical evidence in the united states which provides the main context for this paper supporting the view that basic research makes a significant contribution to the productivity growth of the economy 4 7 it is widely held that social returns from basic research are significant and higher than private returns and it is for this reason that most such activities continue to be financed by the taxpayer this also implies that measures aimed at increasing basic research by the private sector will be welfare improving in the united states the federal government in the years since the second world war has provided the vast majority of all funds devoted to basic research although the federal share has been declining in recent years and although that share is at its lowest level in about 20 years it still constitutes about two thirds of the total 10 this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

two ways to success expansion of renewable energies in comparison between germany s federal states abstract expansion of renewable energies is a central pillar of the german energy transition towards a non nuclear renewable system the expansion rate is co determined to a significant degree at the level of the federal states and varies considerably from state to state apart from the existence of natural energy resources and general economic conditions do parties in government play an important role for the development at the state level we consider potentially influential factors in a fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis fsqca focusing on the expansion of renewable electricity production in all 16 federal german states from 2004 to 2014 as a result two promising ways for accelerated expansion of renewable electricity production can be identified on the one hand a group of economically less developed states have succeeded in promoting expansion and uses it as part of an economic modernization strategy within the economically more developed states however the party political composition of the state governments green party s involvement plays a significant role these results also have implications for other federal countries beyond germany pointing to tailor made policy strategies that consider these specific circumstances

lead markets country specific drivers of the global diffusion of innovations abstract globally successful innovations have commonly been preferred first in one country or region before being adopted internationally countries that first adopt an internally successful innovation can be described as lead markets this paper presents the lead market concept of developing global innovations the lead role of a market is discussed first theoretically and then by use of a system of five country specific factors demand advantages price advantages export advantages transfer advantages and market structure advantages the applicability of this system of lead market factors is then evaluated in a detailed case study of the cellular mobile telephone industry it is finally suggested that companies can harness lead markets for the development of global innovations by developing and refining innovations in close interaction with the local environment of a lead market a company can focus on a narrow range of preferences and feedback lowering the risk of being locked into idiosyncratic environments and generate true global innovations a method for identifying potential lead markets is briefly discussed

renewable energy policy and electricity market reforms in china the article examines the potential effectiveness of the renewable energy policy in china and its regulatory law framework it frames the option of renewable energy technology within the background of the long lasting electricity problems that china has faced including serious supply shortages reliance on coal and severe environmental contamination its dual administrative and ownership system based on state and privately owned industry is discussed together with the market reform measures adopted in the sector current renewable energy policy is analysed and the scope of the 2005 renewable energy promotion law is investigated this is conducted within the context of the electricity sector reform that china adopted and its effects upon the prospects of encouraging as well as expanding the development of renewable energy this study draws upon primary information collected from interviews with stakeholders on the policy adequacy and identifies three main types of shortcomings that have interfered with a more successful expansion of renewable energy in china

economic modelling of price support mechanisms for renewable energy case study on ireland abstract the irish government is considering its future targets policy and programmes for renewable energy for the period beyond 2005 this follows a review in 2003 of policy options that identified a number of different measures to stimulate increased deployment of renewable energy generation capacity this paper expands this review with an economic analysis of renewable energy price support mechanisms in the irish electricity generation sector the focus is on three primary price support mechanisms quota obligations feed in tariffs and competitive tender schemes the green x computer model is utilised to characterise the res e potential and costs in ireland up until and including 2020 the results from this dynamic software tool are used to compare the different support mechanisms in terms of total costs to society and the average premium costs relative to the market price for electricity the results indicate that in achieving a 20 res e proportion of gross electricity consumption by 2020 a tender scheme provides the least costs to society over the period 2006 2020 but only in case there is limited or no strategic bidding considering however strategic bidding a feed in tariff can be the more efficient solution between the other two support mechanisms the total costs to society are highest for feed in tariffs fit until 2013 at which point the costs for the quota system begin to rise rapidly and overtake fit in 2014 2020 the paper also provides a sensitivity analysis of the support mechanism calculations by varying default parameters such as the interim 2010 target the assumed investment risk levels and the amount of biomass co firing this analysis shows that a 2010 target of 15 rather than 13 2 generates lower costs for society over the whole period 2006 2020 but higher costs for the res e strategy over the period 2006 2010

savings of the elderly and desired bequests cross section data often show that the wealth of the elderly increases with age even at advanced ages these and other results suggest that the life cycle hypothesis of consumption should be augmented to include a bequest motive for saving in this paper the author proposes a model of bequests and a test for a bequ est motive using panel data he finds that over a ten year period the elderly in the data set dissaved in contradiction to most cross section results the test offers no support for a bequest motive copyright 1987 by american economic association

policy watch death watch for the estate tax the idea of making death a taxable event infuriates some people winston churchill called estate taxes an attempt to tax dead people rather than the living steve forbes campaigned in favor of no taxation without respiration bruce bartlett 1997 points out that a key plank in the communist manifesto was the abolition of inheritance rights opponents deride the death tax as inefficient inequitable and complex violating every norm of good tax policy supporters counter that the criticisms are overstated or wrong and argue that a highly progressive tax that patches loopholes helps provide equality of opportunity breaks up concentrations of wealth and encourages charitable giving can t be all bad these debates raise a number of research questions for economists in policy circles the death watch for the u s estate and gift tax is on in 1999 in a vote split almost completely along partisan lines the republican majority in

consumer preferences for electricity tariffs does proximity matter abstract the introduction of renewable energy sources fosters the transformation to an energy system with distributed generation this alters the relation between consumers and power generation sites as generation and consumption spatially converge it allows for new configurations within the energy sector and provides opportunities for marketing regional energy we empirically investigate consumer preferences for electricity generation in proximity to end users focusing on the proximity of generation and providers and present representative data for germany in a discrete choice experiment a sample of 780 consumer households and 173 adopters of a renewable energy system prosumers chose from a range of different electricity tariffs we estimate the willingness to pay for the following attributes shares of regional generation power providers and electricity mixes we find evidence in favor of regional production but in spite of positive attitudes towards local generation from renewable sources willingness to pay is not responsive to higher shares of regional generation in addition a preference for regional providers exists the results show that renewable energy mixes are preferred particularly a solar and hydro mix adopters state slightly more distinct preferences as compared to consumer households thus we find there is potential for business models offering regionally generated electricity

real exchange rates under the gold standard purchasing power parity is one of the most important equilibrium conditions in international macroeconomics empirically it is also one of the most hotly contested numerous recent studies for example have sought to determine the validity of purchasing power parity using data from the post bretton woods float and have reached different conclusions we assert that most such studies are flawed for two reasons first the post 1973 data contain by definition only a very limited amount of the low frequency information relevant for examination of long run parity second the dynamic econometric techniques used to model deviations from parity are typically quite crude with respect to admissible low frequency dynamics both deficiencies are rectified in the present paper with dramatic results we construct a new data set of 16 real exchange rates covering more than a century of the classic gold standard period and we study deviations from parity using long memory models that allow for subtle forms of mean

real and nominal effective exchange rates in mena countries 1970 2004 the main purposes of this article are 3 fold first we construct measures of real and nominal effective exchange rates for 14 middle east and north african countries over the 1970 2004 period second we test the validity of the purchasing power parity ppp by applying the adf and kpss tests to the real effective exchange rates finally we employ the bounds testing approach to cointegration and error correction modelling to show that nominal devaluation leads to real devaluation in the short run as well as in the long run in many of the countries

an empirical analysis of the fiscal incidence of renewable energy support in the european union abstract in liberalised energy markets electricity from renewable energy re using solar pv and wind turbines requires financial support because the expected number of generation hours is insufficient to induce private investment such support has a direct cost from the additional expenditure over what would have been incurred had fossil fuel generation been used and indirect costs arising from the random and distributed nature of the re output comparing european union countries between 2007 and 2017 we find the pricing structure of retail electricity is regressive and correlated to reliance upon re although initially the direct and indirect costs of re affects integrated utilities and aggregators the ultimate burden largely falls upon lower income cohorts given policy objectives for re these finding are worrisome though as a society we may benefit from reducing dependence upon fossil fuels the burden of this transition falls upon those with the lowest income raising questions over fairness explaining the reasons for fiscal regressiveness leads to suggestions on how it may be redressed

purchasing power parity over two centuries strengthening the case for real exchange rate stability a reply to cuddington and liang cuddington and liang 2000 purchasing power parity over two centuries journal of international money and finance 19 751 755 examine the long span of sterling dollar real exchange rate data of lothian and taylor 1996 real exchange rate behavior the recent float from the perspective of the past two centuries journal of political economy 104 488 509 and claim to reject long run purchasing power parity by fitting time trends or by considering very high order autoregresssive representations this reply demonstrates however that the central claims of lothian and taylor are in fact strengthened by the implications of cuddington and liang s analysis in that while the economic importance of introducing trend terms is slight this leads to a faster estimated speed of mean reversion c 2000 elsevier science ltd all rights reserved jel classification f31 f41 c22

smooth transition models and arbitrage consistency slow adjustment of real exchange rate towards equilibrium in linear models has long puzzled researchers stimulating the adoption of nonlinear models the exponential smooth transition model has been particularly successful providing faster adjustment speeds this paper discusses some of its theoretical limitations for example that expectations are adaptive we propose a new nonlinear model conceptually superior to the estar model since it is consistent with rational expectations one of its advantages is that it can be solved and estimated by nonlinear least squares using monthly post 1973 real exchange rate data we show that the model implies even faster speeds of adjustment

motives for private income transfers private income transfers are becoming increasingly recognized as a key aspect of the u s economy the majority of private income transfers occur inter vivos i e between living persons but very little is known about this type of transfer behavior this paper tests alternative hypotheses concerning motivation for inter vivos transfers two motives are considered altruism and exchange evidence presented here casts doubt on the altruistic model of transfer behavior observed patterns for inter vivos transfers are more consistent with exchange related motives this finding has important implications for the effects of public transfer programs on the distribution of economic well being

cost effectiveness of renewable electricity policies we analyze policies to promote renewable sources of electricity a portfolio standard rps raises electricity prices and primarily reduces gas fired generation a knee of the cost curve exists between 15 and 20 goals for 2020 in our central case and higher natural gas prices lower the cost of greater reliance on renewables a renewable energy production tax credit lowers electricity price at the expense of taxpayers which limits its effectiveness in reducing carbon emissions and it is less cost effective at increasing renewables than a portfolio standard neither policy is as cost effective as a cap and trade policy for achieving carbon emission reductions

how middle powers can manage resource weakness japan and energy the post world war ii world has seen the transformation of the international system from a configuration with several rival great powers into one with two superpowers and a set of lesser but still substantial powerssecond tier states with democratic politics and mixed economies one of the recurrent concerns of the latter has been to secure supplies of natural resources we argue that postwar conditions point to eight elements of prudent resource policy for middle level powers such states should i avoid military means 2 choose trade partners whose political interests overlap with their own and who enjoy political stability 3 seek to create in supplier and transit countries a structure of economic interests that will make supply agreements self enforcing 4 diversify with respect to commodity dependence supplier share and transit bottlenecks 5 tailor stockpiles to the urgency of demand 6 exploit technology to reduce dependence and enhance bargaining advantages 7 encourage the private sector and public enterprises to become intermediaries in the international resource trade and 8 pursue strategic interdependence among consumer nations by creating multilateral stakes in the maintenance of normal commerce in resources in this paper we develop a set of general prescriptions for the behavior of mid level powers with small endowments of natural resources we hold that states which follow these prescriptions will avoid endangering their economic performance indeed they may outperform others that apparently hold an advantage in terms of greater resource endowments and military power we use the case of japanese energy policy to develop our prescriptions and to demonstrate their feasibility the case has special interest because of the importance of energy resources in the world economy japan s extreme dependence on and thus policy efforts related to imported energy and the vigor of the japanese economy

the economic value of south korea s renewable energy policies rps rfs and rho a contingent valuation study abstract amid growing environmental awareness the diffusion of renewable energy has attracted greater attention from both the public and policymakers to respond to global environmental concerns the korean government implemented a renewable portfolio standard rps in the electric power sector in 2012 it plans to introduce a renewable fuel standard rfs and a renewable heat obligation rho in the transportation and heating sectors in 2015 and 2016 respectively as such this study applies the contingent valuation method to elicit the willingness of korean households to pay more for their energy bills in order to support enforcement of these three policies the analysis considers the economic values of each individual policy as well as the aggregate value at the national level respondents mean willingness to pay for rps rfs and rho are estimated as 3287 5 4432 9 and 3971 1 korean won per month respectively these are equivalent to 5 8 1 5 and 2 0 respectively of current average monthly electricity transportation and heating expenses although all three policies appear highly feasible a cautious approach is necessary given the large proportion of respondents with zero willingness to pay furthermore although the level of willingness to pay for renewable electricity in korea has increased in recent years it remains low when compared to other leading countries such as japan

quantile unit root test and ppp evidence from 23 oecd countries abstractapplication of six different univariate unit root tests to real effective exchange rates of 23 oecd countries supports their stationarity or purchasing power parity theory ppp only in five countries a result consistent with previous research that is known as ppp puzzle however descriptive statistics of each effective rate reveals a clear sign of non normal distribution to account for this we use quantile unit root test which allows impact of different shocks to be realized at different quantiles when we applied this new test to the same rates number of countries in which ppp is supported increased to 16 apparently incorporating effects of shocks improves testing efficiency and provides more support for the ppp and reduces the severity of the puzzle

evaluating options for the future energy mix of japan after the fukushima nuclear crisis the fukushima nuclear accident in march 2011 has increased social and political reluctance to embrace nuclear power in japan and elsewhere the japanese government has thus been considering four possible future energy mixes including a nuclear free pathway and three others with 10 35 nuclear supply coupled with a larger proportion of renewable energy and fossil fuels to replace nuclear here we use multi criteria decision making analysis mcdma to assess the potential negative economic levelised cost of electricity and energy security environmental greenhouse gas emissions land transformation water consumption heated water discharge air pollution radioactive waste and solid waste and social safety issues impacts of the four proposed pathways to determine which scenario most holistically minimises adverse future outcomes the nuclear free pathway has the highest overall potential for adverse outcomes score 2 49 out of 3 and the 35 nuclear power supply option yielding the lowest negative impact score 0 74 without weightings despite some sensitivity to the choice of criterion weights our analyses demonstrate clearly that from an empirical perspective a nuclear free pathway for japan is the worst option to pursue we recommend that mcdma methodology we used for japan can be applied to other countries to evaluate future electricity generation scenarios

wind power generation an impact analysis of incentive strategies for cleaner energy provision in brazil brazil has adopted various strategies to encourage alternative renewable energy sources in pursuit of cleaner and sustainable energy production to this end strategies should support the reduction of the financial risk for potential investors in the renewable energy market therefore this study aims to analyze the impact of incentive strategies on the financial risk of wind power generation projects in brazil in different marketing environments from a quantitative approach using monte carlo simulation in three scenarios we evaluate the impact of funding from the national development bank and participation in the clean development mechanism in the financial returns of the investor in a regulated contracting environment and free contracting environment measured by the net present value we conduct a statistical analysis to find out if there were statistically significant differences in investor risk in each scenario the main results of the study are as follows the wind speed the selling price of energy and disbursement for the investment have the most significant impact on the financial return the project viability probability is greater than 85 in all scenarios regardless of the marketing environment the regulated market is less risky for the producer than the free market since there is a statistically significant difference in net present value variances for all scenarios in the regulated contracting environment funding is critical to reducing risk and carbon credit trading is not a suitable policy for providing financial security to renewable energy producers thus we conclude that in brazil the contracting of projects from auctions in the regulated contracting environment with the support of the national development bank has been important for neutralizing the producer s financial risks

precautionary saving and accidental bequests this paper presents a simple general equilibrium model of precautionary saving and accidental bequests this model is used to analyze the implications of individual lifetime uncertainty for aggregate consumption and capital accumulation a precautionary demand for saving arises because an individual consumer does not know in advance the date at which he will die and he wants to avoid low levels of consumption in the event that he lives longer than expected an implication of this precautionary saving is that when death does occur the consumer is generally holding some wealth which is then passed on to his heirs in the form of an accidental bequest even if all consumers have the same ex ante mortality probabilities there will be some intracohort variation in the date of death consequently there will be a nondegenerate distribution of bequests left by consumers in a cohort this nondegenerate distribution of bequests left by one generation induces variation in the distributions of wealth consumption and bequests of subsequent generations the importance of bequests in aggregate saving has been established by laurence kotlikoff and lawrence summers 1981 who reported that 80 percent of u s household wealth is inherited wealth one interpretation of this finding is that the simple life cycle model without bequest motives is an inadequate description of saving behavior in the united states but the model i present demonstrates that accidental bequests by selfish consumers can account for a potentially sizeable fraction of aggregate wealth although some part of bequests especially by the wealthy undoubtedly results from an explicit bequest motive accidental bequests also play a role in the intergenerational transfer of wealth as well as in the intragenerational variation in wealth in order to focus on the role of accidental bequests i purposely exclude a bequest motive from the specification of the utility function the effects of lifetime uncertainty on individual consumption behavior were first examined formally in a seminal paper by menachem yaari 1965 yaari s model provided the basic framework for virtually all subsequent work on uncertain lifetimes including well known papers by nils hakansson 1969 stanley fischer 1973 robert barro and james friedman 1977 david levhari and leonard mirman 1977 and kotlikoff and avia spivak 1981 however all of these papers focused on the consumption decision of an individual and ignored the effect of accidental bequests on the behavior of the recipients of these accidental bequests 2 as will be shown at various points in this paper changes in the economic environment can have effects on aggregate behavior which differ sharply from the effects on individual behavior because of the endogenous adjustment of bequests the effects of department of economics harvard university cambridge ma 02138 this paper is a revised version of bequests and social security with uncertain lifetimes nber working paper no 1372 june 1984 i thank olivier blanchard john burbidge christopher cavanagh robert clower stanley fischer benjamin friedman elhanan helpman mervyn king nobuhiro kiyotaki laurence kotlikoff robert mcdonald james pesando julio rotemberg lawrence summers lars svensson mark watson and jeffrey wolcowitz for valuable conversations and correspondence i also thank the participants in seminars at boston university columbia university cornell university federal reserve board harvard university university of iowa mit university of minnesota university of montreal national bureau of economic research north carolina state university the wharton school and yale university and two anonymous referees for their helpful comments i also thank the national science foundation for financial support 1 in the presence of perfect annuity and life insurance markets there may or may not be bequests depending on the presence or absence of a bequest motive but there would be no accidental bequests 2 kotlikoff and spivak focus on the role of the family in providing an incomplete annuities market but stop short of a full scale overlapping generations model in which the distribution of bequests is determined endogenously

the two faces of market support how deployment policies affect technological exploration and exploitation in the solar photovoltaic industry the recent years have seen a strong rise in policies aiming to increase the diffusion of clean energy technologies while there is general agreement that such deployment policies have been very effective in bringing technologies to the market it is less understood how these policies affect technological innovation to shed more light on this important question we conducted comparative case studies with a global sample of 9 firms producing solar photovoltaic pv modules complemented by in depth interviews with 16 leading pv industry experts we propose that on the one hand policy induced market growth serves as an important catalyst for innovative activity as it raises the absolute level of firm investments in technological exploration on the other hand however deployment policies create an incentive for firms pursuing more mature technologies to shift their balance between exploitation and exploration toward exploitation firms focusing on less mature technologies cannot tap the potentials of exploitative learning to the same extent as those with more mature technologies therefore stimulating strong market growth may raise the barrier to market entry for less mature technologies we conclude that when designing deployment policies great care should be taken to avoid adverse effects on technological diversity and a premature lock in into more established technologies

a general equilibrium model of international portfolio choice we investigate in a two country general equilibrium model whether a bias in consumption towards domestic goods will necessarily lead to a preference for domestic securities we develop a model where investors are constrained to consume only from their domestic capital stock and where it is costly to transfer capital across countries in this model investors less risk averse than an investor with log utility bias their portfolios towards domestic assets investors more risk averse than log however prefer foreign assets thus this model suggests that it is unlikely that the portfolios observed empirically can be explained by the high proportion of domestic goods in total consumption we investigate in a two country general equilbrium model whether a bias in consumption toward domestic goods will necessarily lead to a preference for domestic assets in an investor s optimal portfolio we constrain investors to consume only from their domestic capital stock and introduce a proportional cost for transferring goods from one country this cost gives rise to endogenous deviations from the law of one price lop thus the home and foreign investors do not hold identical portfolios we show that an investor s optimal portfolio is biased towards domestic equity only if she is less risk averse than an investor with log utility investors with relative risk aversion greater than one exhibit a preference for the foreign asset this is because the exchange rate derived endogenously is negatively correlated with the return on the foreign asset and therefore the translated return on the foreign stock is less risky than that on the domestic stock thus the results of this model suggest that it is unlikely that the preference for domestic assets that is observed empirically can be explained by the high proportion of domestic goods in total consumption there exists a considerable body of literature documenting the gains from international diversification grubel 1968 was the first to propose that international diversification allows investors to attain lower return variances than those achievable by diversifying domestically this proposition relies on the correlation between stock indices across countries being significantly less

uncertain lifetime consumption and dissaving in retirement this paper asks whether the continued accumulation or mild dissaving observed among the retired can be explained by uncertain lifetime in the absence of annuities after an initial period influenced by borrowing constraints under constant relative risk aversion uncertain lifetime depresses consumption by a proportion increasing with age if the elasticity of intertemporal substitution in consumption is small illustrative computations based on actual income and survival data show that plausible elasticities are sufficiently small to give this effect the reduction in consumption is large enough to explain much of the lack of decumulation by the elderly

product oriented climate policy learning from the past to shape the future abstract product oriented climate policies such as labels financial incentives and emission standards for vehicles and buildings have achieved considerable reductions in emissions and triggered innovations that offer very low emissions during the use phase in contrast to other climate policy instruments these policies are successfully applied in an increasing number of regions however a major proportion of global emissions namely those from industry remain outside the scope of most current forms of product oriented climate policies all economic activities could be included by extending product oriented policies to embodied emissions i e emissions resulting from manufacturing products to guide such a development we need a better understanding of the current state and potential future development of this policy approach therefore in this paper we review and evaluate policy evolution over the past decade in terms of both measures implemented and emissions addressed on this basis we synthesize a framework for developing policy towards greater stringency and broader scope the framework describes a step wise process to achieve increasingly stringent standards once established standards can extend their scope to include additional similar products and related embodied emissions our framework and policy review informs the reinforcement and extensions of current product oriented climate policies a relevant implication for international climate policy is that the regional adoption of such policies incentivizes the global diffusion of low ghg products international climate policy can foster this development by supporting the harmonization of carbon footprint norms for products in order to enhance conformity with international trade and facilitate the extension of product oriented climate policy to embodied emissions

transactions costs and nonlinear adjustment in real exchange rates an empirical investigation eolquilibrium models of real exchange rate determination in the presence of transactions costs imply a nonlinear adjustment process toward purchasing power parity ppp conventional cointegration tests which ignore the effect of transactions costs may be biased against the long run ppp hypothesis our results using both monthly data for the interwar period and annual data spanning two centuries clearly reject the linear framework in favor of an exponential smooth transition autoregressive process the systematic pattern in the estimates of the nonlinear models provides strong evidence of mean reverting behavior for ppp deviations and helps explain the mixed results of previous studies

new evidence on nominal exchange rate predictability abstract the meese rogoff puzzle one of the well known puzzles in international economics concerns the weak relationship between nominal exchange rates and market fundamentals the purpose of this paper is to show that market fundamentals do in fact matter in forecasting nominal exchange rates in particular we emphasize the importance of the harrod balassa samuelson effect in modeling deviations from purchasing power parity based on the post bretton woods period we provide solid out of sample evidence that rejects the random walk forecast model at medium term and long term forecast horizons we also find mild evidence for out of sample predictability of nominal exchange rates over the short term

use of economic instruments in the german renewable electricity policy this article surveys the economic instruments adopted in germany since the start of the previous decade and analyse the factors determining their effectiveness it is found out that their effect has always diminished in correspondence of increased uncertainty on the future of the system in particular while in two of these instances uncertainty was mainly due to national factors in the other the debate on the european renewable directive played a very important role recent changes in the production incentives have introduced a process simulating the effect of competition among renewable generators it is pointed out that the biennial revision of the rates can increase the uncertainty intrinsic in the policy on the other hand this process also provides a forum for the debate on the future of the renewable sector one can notice that currently germany the biggest renewable market in europe is granting one of the lowest production incentives this is rather curious as germany never relied on market competition in order to increase the renewable electricity production

vested interests energy efficiency and renewables in japan this paper sets out to analyze japanese renewable energy policy a default expectation is that countries with unsolved energy problems will have more ambitious renewable energy policies including energy efficiency the japanese case only partially conforms the theoretical proposition made here is that it is essential to analyze a country s vested interest structure before we can make any inferences about its renewable energy policies the vested interest perspective derived from a combination of joseph schumpeter and mancur olson and focusing on structural economic change both complements and rivals the default expectation structural economic change like the rise of renewables typically leads to resistance from the existing vested interest structure which feels that it stands to lose from the rise of new industries the position of a new industry vis a vis the existing vested interest structure is thus crucial in the japanese case the solar industry has been far more on the inside of this structure than wind this has made it far harder for the wind industry to rise than for solar energy efficiency is however the ultimate insider approach to energy policy not challenging any vested interest structures and has been the favored approach for over three decades

towards solving the ppp puzzle evidence from 113 countries several different approaches have been followed by researchers to test the validity of purchasing power parity ppp since the introduction of the unit root tests researchers have applied a battery of these tests to determine whether the real exchange rates are stationary if the answer is in the affirmative ppp is validated while application of the standard augmented dickey fuller test has not provided much support for ppp a test that incorporates nonlinearity in the rates has under both tests however the null of nonstationary is tested against the alternative of stationarity in this article when we switch the null with the alternative and apply kwiatkowski et al 1992 test we provide relatively more support for the theory getting closer and closer towards solving the ppp puzzle

revisiting purchasing power parity in oecd this study revisits purchasing power parity theory ppp in the 34 oecd countries during january 1994 august 2013 we use a new panel stationary test with both sharp breaks and smooth shifts a novel approach to panel unit root testing proposed by bahmani oskooee et al 2014 the results indicate that the ppp holds in half of the 34 oecd countries these results indicate the importance of proper modelling of both sharp breaks and smooth shifts in real effective exchange rate series of oecd countries

residential solar photovoltaic market stimulation japanese and australian lessons for canada canada is a leading electricity consumer yet lags behind other industrial countries 14th out of 20 reporting iea countries in the installation of solar photovoltaic systems the factors environmental benefits health benefits network benefits need for new production capacity etc promoting solar or other renewable sources of electricity in other countries are also present in canada but effective policy mechanisms to stimulate canada s photovoltaic industry are only starting to appear discussions of policy options focused initially on renewable portfolio standards and then on feed in tariffs this paper reviews the japanese and australian experience with capital incentives to stimulate the residential market for photovoltaics it demonstrates the ability of a market sensitive program to stimulate industrial growth achieve unit cost reductions and shift the market to include a large grid tied share residential respondents to surveys report high costs as their primary barrier to installing photovoltaic systems and state a strong preference for capital incentives to reduce their investment costs the canadian government needs a market stimulation policy if it is to join those countries where a decentralized photovoltaic generation system strengthens the electricity supply system a balanced solar energy market stimulation program is proposed that combines a feed in tariff with a declining capital incentive