gross substitution in financial markets abstract we develop restrictions on the joint distribution of an individual s risk attitudes and their endowments which guarantee the gross substitution property for market and individual excess demand functions respectively in particular it is shown that under some mild restrictions on the agent s risk aversion gross substitution holds for sufficiently large endowments

on the impact of heterogeneity on indeterminacy some recent research indicates that the occurrence of indeterminacy in models with externalities may be overstated because these models ignore agents heterogeneity we consider a neoclassical two sector growth model with technological externalities agents are heterogeneous with respect to their shares of the initial stock of capital and in labor endowments we find that the sign of the effect of inequality on indeterminacy is not pinned down by the standard properties of preferences however when the inverse of absolute risk aversion is a convex respectively concave function homogeneity heterogeneity tends to neutralize the external effects and eliminate indeterminacy

evidence on nonlinear error correction in money demand the case of taiwan this paper proposes a nonlinear error correction model based upon smooth transition regression methodology the model is specified such that the short run adjustment toward long run equilibrium is nonlinear and that the error correction is a smooth function of long run deviation empirical results obtained from estimating m2 money demand in taiwan support the hypothesis of a nonlinear error correction process and provide better interpretation of change in the demand for money

ageing and unused capacity in europe is there an early retirement trap we address the issue of how early retirement may interact with limited use of financial markets in producing financial hardship later in life when some risks such as long term care are not insured we argue that the presence of financially attractive early retirement schemes in a world of imperfect financial and insurance markets can lead to an early retirement trap indeed europe witnesses many early retired individuals in financial distress in our analysis we use data on 10 european countries which differ in their pension and welfare systems in prevailing retirement age and in households access to financial markets we find evidence that an early retirement trap exists particularly in some southern and central european countries people who retired early in life are more likely to be in financial hardship in the long run our analysis implies that governments should stop making early retirement attractive let retirees go back to work improve access to financial markets and make sure long term care problems are adequately insured viola angelini agar brugiavini and guglielmo weber

the demand for money in eec countries abstract this paper examines the demand for money in the eec countries and is focussed on five issues first it starts form a common economic framework which allows for shifts from m 2 to non money assets and vice versa second special attention is given to the dynamic structure of the statistical model in order to obtain meaningful conclusions on e g the speed of adjustment of actual to optimal money holdings third the study is entirely based on a uniform set of quarterly data for the eight countries concerned fourth the paper presents a careful examination of the residuals and finally analyses the predictive behaviour of the estimated models for all countries we found long run income elasticities greater than unity and interest rate elasticities clustered around 0 20 the impact of inflation and the business cycle variable appeared to be significant in the majority of countries considered

married women s allocation of time to employment and care of elderly parents married women who have been shown in past research to exhibit relatively elastic labor supply constitute a group of particular interest with respect to decisions concerning time spent in parental care and time spent in market work this paper presents estimates of a simultaneousequations model of employment hours of work and the provision of care to an older parent the results provide no evidence of reduced propensities to be employed or of reduced conditional hours of work due to the provision of parent care these findings are consistent with other research on women s allocation of time to competing productive uses

the earnings of informal carers wage differentials and opportunity costs a substantial proportion of working age individuals in britain are looking after sick disabled or elderly people often combining their work and caring responsibilities previous research has shown that informal care is linked with substantial opportunity costs for the individual due to forgone wages as a result of non labour market participation in this paper we show that informal carers exhibit further disadvantages even when participating using the british household panel study bhps we decompose wage differentials and show that carers can expect lower returns for a given set of characteristics with this wage penalty varying along the pay distribution and by gender furthermore opportunity costs from forgone wages and wage penalties are estimated and found to be substantial

aggregation in a model of price competition abstract in a model of price competition single product firms compete for consumers consumers purchase a variable quantity of one of the differentiated goods the paper provides results on equilibrium existence when consumers are heterogeneous in their evaluation of the differentiated goods among each other their evaluation of the differentiated goods relative to the outside good and heterogeneous in income furthermore i provide sufficient conditions for dominance solvability and monotone comparative statics journal of economic literature classification numbers d43 d11

aggregation and social choice a mean voter theorem a celebrated result of black 1948a demonstrates the existence of a simple majority winner when preferences are single peaked the social choice follows the preferences of the median voter the median voter s most preferred outcome beats any alternative however this conclusion does not extend to elections in which candidates differ in more than one dimension this paper provides a multi dimensional analog of the median voter result we provide conditions under which the mean voter s most preferred outcome is unbeatable according to a 64 majority rule the conditions supporting this result represent a significant generalization of caplin and nalebuff 1988 the proof of our mean voter result uses a mathematical aggregation theorem due to prekopa 1971 1973 and borell 1975 this theorem has broad applications in economics an application to the distribution of income is described at the end of this paper results on imperfect competition are presented in the companion paper caplin and nalebuff 1991

modeling monetary trends in italy using historical data the demand for broad money 1861 1990 in this paper we estimate a stable demand for money relationship for italy using a long series of historical data we extend previously available data sets to obtain a sample for the years 1861 to 1990 and use cointegration analysis and two stage estimation procedures to obtain a dynamic model for m2 demand by employing a small number of explanatory variables and a nonlinear error correction model we find a stable demand for money relationship our model incorporates significant inflation and interest rate effects in contrast to previous studies of this type

intergenerational household formation female labor supply and informal caregiving a bargaining approach children s provision of in kind services to their elderly parents informal caregiving represents an important form of economic transfers to the elderly in this paper we develop and estimate a joint model of informal caregiving and labor force participation decisions of adult daughters who have a frail elderly parent in a broader framework of intergenerational household formation parent and daughter agree to a nash bargaining rule as the solution to the household formation and intrahousehold decision making process however rather than severed relationships the threat point is given by a noncooperative equilibrium defined in terms of voluntary contributions toward a public good the parental well being maximum likelihood parameter estimates derived from the simultaneous multiequation endogenous switching model are generally consistent with expectations our results indicate that competing demands on daughters time reduce both coresidence and informal caregiving we also find that intergenerational coresidence is an important mode of assistance to elderly persons a simulation based on the estimated parameters suggests that public programs designed to meet the long term care needs of elderly persons by subsidizing formal home care services may have substantial effects on intergenerational living and care arrangement decisions

spillover effect of japanese long term care insurance as an employment promotion policy for family caregivers we evaluate a spillover effect of the japanese public long term care insurance ltci as a policy to stimulate family caregivers labor force participation using nationally representative data from 1995 to 2013 we apply difference in difference propensity score matching to investigate the spillover effect in two periods before and after the introduction of the ltci in 2000 and before and after its major amendment in 2006 our results show that the ltci introduction has significant and positive spillover effects on family caregivers labor force participation and the effects vary by gender and age in contrast the ltci amendment is found to have generally negative spillover effects on their labor force participation we draw attention to these spillover effects as expanding labor market supply to sustain the economy would be a priority for japan and other rapidly aging countries in the coming decades

facts and ideas in microeconomic theory the title of my lecture is quite pretentious therefore let me first restrict the subject somewhat i will not speak on microeconomics in general but on demand theory in particular the less pretentious title facts and ideas in demand theory would be a fairer description of the content of my lecture if it comes to demand theory i enjoy reading in hicks a reoision of demand theory i read this book in parts again and again let me quote now a few lines on p 4

caregiving to elderly parents and employment status of european mature women abstract we study the prevalence of informal caregiving to elderly parents by their mature daughters in europe and the links between parental health intense daily caregiving and the employment status of daughters we group data from share into three country pools north central and south which differ in the availability of public formal care services and female labor market attachment there is a strong north south gradient in the positive effect of parental ill health on the probability of daily caregiving the loss of employment ascribable to daily informal caregiving seems negligible except in southern countries we use a time allocation model to provide a link to an empirical iv treatment effects framework and to interpret our findings

the effect of informal care on work and wages cross sectional evidence in the united states finds that informal caregivers have less attachment to the labor force the causal mechanism is unclear do children who work less become informal caregivers or are children who become caregivers working less using longitudinal data from the health and retirement study we identify the relationship between informal care and work in the united states both on the intensive and extensive margins and examine wage effects we control for time invariant individual heterogeneity rule out or control for endogeneity examine effects for men and women separately and analyze heterogeneous effects by task and intensity we find modest decreases 2 4 percentage points in the likelihood of working for male caregivers providing personal care female chore caregivers meanwhile are more likely to be retired for female care providers who remain working we find evidence that they decrease work by 3 10hours per week and face a 3 percent lower wage than non caregivers we find little effect of caregiving on working men s hours or wages these estimates suggest that the opportunity costs to informal care providers are important to consider when making policy recommendations about the design and funding of public long term care programs

retirement intergenerational time transfers and fertility abstract retired parents might invest time in their adult children by providing childcare such intergenerational time transfers can have important implications for family decisions this paper estimates the effects of parental retirement on the fertility of their adult children we use representative panel data from germany to link observations on parents and their adult children we exploit eligibility ages for early retirement for identification in a regression discontinuity and pension reforms in a difference in differences design the results suggest that parents retirement positively influences the fertility of their adult children which is mainly driven by an increase in the likelihood of having a second birth however while parental retirement affects the timing of the fertility of their adult children it does not affect the children s total fertility

the demand for money a rational expectations approach the authors derive a model of money demand for an optimizing consumer with rational expectations in a discrete time infinte hortizon framework under uncertainty mone y demand responds to unanticipated changes in income one period expe ctations of future bond and money interest rates unanticipated curre nt interest rates and past anticipations of current rates the deriv ed consumption function mirrors money demand behavior joint estimati on of the consumption and money demand equations by weighted nonlinea r least squares corroborates the predicted effects particularly inco me neutrality this money demand model substantially outperforms a co nventional specification in post sample simulation over 1975 85 copyright 1988 by mit press

behavioral heterogeneity and the income effect inspired by the recent literature on aggregation theory this paper introduces hits a semiparametric model of consumer demand that allows for diversity in tastes the strong variation of budget shares observed across income groups has two possible origins the individual income effect and taste differences between poor and rich households consumer surveys reporting repeated cross sections do not permit the direct measurement of these two effects in hits linear heterogeneity allows the gmm estimation of structural coefficients on an aggregate series the joint density of spending and tastes is then recovered from cross sections by a nonparametric procedure involving a deconvolution we estimate the model on british data 1968 1998 and report that taste heterogeneity explains a large fraction of the variation of budget shares with income

the demand for m1 in the u s a 1960 1988 estimated u s m1 demand functions appear unstable regularly breaking down over 1960 1988 e g missing money great velocity decline m1 explosion we propose a money demand function whose arguments include inflation real income long term bond yield and risk t bill interest rates and learning curve weighted yields on newly introduced instruments in m1 and non transactions m2 the model is estimated in dynamic error correction form it is constant and with an equation standard error of 0 4 variance dominates most previous models estimating alternative specifications explains earlier breakdowns showing the model s distinctive features to be important in accounting for the data

an alternative approach to the american demand for money with a decade of evidence behind it the profession seems to have agreed on the fact that a structural break shifted the american demand for money shortly after 1973 it is difficult to pinpoint the source of the trouble precisely let alone to explain the event with an econometric model in their survey judd and scadding 1982 tentatively concluded that financial innovation is the source of the problem while this conclusion has not been universally accepted the instability of the money demand function is largely taken as a given stylized fact the primary goal of this article is to provide an alternative solution to the case of the missing money using the methods of hendry 1979 it should be stressed at the outset that as this paper deals with a problem in the applied literature it is unabashedly empirical in nature the paper attempts to explain an empirical difficulty without presenting a new theoretical model of money demand rather in the context of the standard transactions demand theory for narrow money a number of questions are analyzed with an atypical econometric model was there actually a shift or a series of shifts in the demand for money if not why have other investigators concluded that there was in fact a shift most importantly what function seems to be the most reasonable approximation to the data generation process during the period in question

the search for a stable money demand function a survey of the post 1973 literature phe question of whether the demnand function for money is stable is one of the most important recurring issues in the theory and application of macroeconomic policy what is being sought in a stable demand function is a set of necessary conditions for money to exert a predictable influence on the economy so that the central bank s control of the money supply can be a useful instrument of economic policy as such the notion of a stable demand function appears to involve three key elements e g john t boorman 1976 p 317 and david e w laidler 1977 pp 34 35 first the demand for money relation should be highly predictable in a statistical sense as measured by the usual goodness of fit statistics precision of estimated coefficients and presumably its ability to forecast accurately out of sample second a stable demand function for money has relatively few arguments a relationship that requires knowledge about a large number of variables in order to pin it down is in effect not predictable finally the variables that appear as arguments in the function should represent significant links to spending and economic activity in the real sector in sum a stable demand function for money means that the quantity of money is predictably related to a small set of key variables linking money to the real sector of the economy the importance of a stable money demand function for monetary policy can be illustrated with the standard is lm model in which interest rates and gnp are the endogenous variables in this context a stable demand function for money translates into a well defined relationship between money interest rates and gnp

transformations of the commodity space behavioral heterogeneity and the aggregation problem aggregation in exchange markets is studied by imposing restrictions on distributions of the households characteristics approximate bounds for market demand price elasticities that depend upon specific measures of behavioral heterogeneity are provided increasing behavioral heterogeneity makes aggregate expenditures more independent of prices this has strong consequences for the prevalence in the aggregate of the weak axiom of revealed preference of gross substitutability and on uniqueness and stability of the walrasian exchange equilibrium these strong macroeconomic regularities are obtained essentially through distributional assumptions as no rationality requirements are imposed on individual demand functions other than homogeneity and walras law journal of economic literature classification numbers d11 d41 d50 el 1992 academic press lnc there are still quite a few unpleasant gaps nowadays between macroanalysis and microanalysis of socioeconomic systems a leading instance drawn from social choice theory is arrow s celebrated impossibility theorem 1 which states that any attempt to aggregate individual preferences into a consistent social ordering or a collective choice procedure satisfying a few appealing requirements is bound to fail the impossibility arises however only if one insists that the procedure should work for every possible environment or in other words for all distributions of individual preferences a possible resolution of the problem is therefore to identify broad classes of distributions of preferences for which aggrega the bulk of the research reported in this paper was essentially done at yale university during the fall semester of 1990 i thank all my colleagues for their support and comments especially martin shubik herbert scarf and truman bewley i also had very useful conversations with jorgen weibull mike jerison andreu mas colell christian gouri6roux camille bronsard guy laroque bruno jullien and bernard caillaud i am much indebted to ai klevorick for his comments on an earlier draft but my greatest debt is to werner hildenbrand whose pioneering insights and stubborn insistance have over the years kept quite a few of us struggling beyond the fads of the moment with the aggregation problem our profession is fortunate indeed to have him around

who will care employment participation and willingness to supply informal care the impact of informal care responsibilities on the willingness and ability of caregivers to undertake paid employment has been the subject of a number of studies in contrast the effect of employment status on willingness to undertake informal care has been less well explored this paper concentrates on this less studied direction of causality using the data provided by 15 waves of the british household panel survey we find that employment participation and earnings both impact negatively on willingness to supply informal care this evidence has implications for health and social care policy since informal care has been shown to be a significant substitute for formal long term care

health time allocation and work empirical evidence from turkey abstractthis article investigates the relationship between health status and time allocation decisions of individuals although many studies address impacts of health on labour supply few studies

the opportunity costs of informal care does gender matter in this paper we investigate the costs borne by both male and female carers in terms of their forgone formal employment opportunities traditionally informal care was supplied by women but nowadays women are not only more likely to work but also likely to be significant contributors to family finances for women this implies that the size of any forgone earnings cost of informal care is increasing at the same time population ageing is making for increasing numbers requiring care from a policy perspective it is therefore helpful to consider a less traditional but nevertheless important source of informal care men we find that both male and female carers bear indirect costs in that they are less likely to be in paid work than otherwise similar non carers and when they are in paid work they earn significantly less however we find that the motivation for lower employment participation is not the same for men as it is for women

the labour market costs of community care this paper reports an empirical investigation into the influence of informal care responsibilities on the labour supply of women the objective is to examine the argument that the uk policy of caring for the chronic sick in the community involves a nontrivial opportunity cost in the form of the forgone labour supply of the informal carers upon which it relies we find that informal carers who care for less than 20 h per week are in fact more likely to participate in the labour market but tend to work for fewer hours per week than otherwise similar noncarers informal carers who care for 20 h or more a week are less likely to participate but only slightly however when they do undertake formal employment they tend to earn less per hour and work for fewer hours per week

financial development and economic growth in south korea an application of smooth transition error correction analysis this article investigates the influences of financial development on economic growth for south korea the analysis is performed using an error correction model and a nonlinear smooth transition error correction technique empirical results from the cointegration test reveal that there is a long run equilibrium relationship among financial development and economic growth we also demonstrate that the nonlinear specification is more appropriate than the linear model and confirm the presence of nonlinearity in the aggregate output furthermore we find that the short run effect of financial development on economic growth is unstable despite the positive long term effect

recent instability of the demand for money an international perspective aggregate money demand functions once an apparent bulwark for macroeconomic research have had to be re examined in the light of the events and discoveries of the 1970s following goldfeld s extensive analysis it now is widely recognized that the demand for mi balances in the united states cannot be explained satisfactorily by standard functions apparently because of shifts occurring in the early 1970s similar reservations see below have been expressed with respect to m3 balances in the united kingdom where the demand relationships appear to have been upset by the introduction of regulatory reforms in 1971 in both cases part of the problem can be traced to specific events but the possibility remains that a more general instability may be present the rapid inflation experienced by all major industrial countries after 1973 the concurrent collapse of the bretton woods system of fixed exchange rates and the attempts by most major central banks to control growth in domestic money stocks may all have altered the responses of the demand for money to the standard functional arguments this paper presents a range of stability tests for a set of demand functions estimated for two monetary aggregates in each of six countries in order to determine whether money demand functions more generally have been stable over the recent period and to attempt to identify the nature and causes of any observed instabilities the major conclusions are that none of the other functions examined displays instabilities as severe as those of the mi function for the united states and that the latter may be unstable in a more persistent and fundamental way than has heretofore been recognized the equations estimated for this study are based on a variant of goldfeld s log linear real balances function the deflated value of money balances is related to real income interest rates and inflation with lagged adjustments introduced via a simple koyck transformation this function obviously is in a simplified form especially with respect to the lag struc

nonparametric engel curves and revealed preference this paper applies revealed preference theory to the nonparametric statistical analysis of consumer demand knowledge of expansion paths is shown to improve the power of nonparametric tests of revealed preference the tightest bounds on indifference surfaces and welfare measures are derived using an algorithm for which revealed preference conditions are shown to guarantee convergence nonparametric engel curves are used to estimate expansion paths and provide a stochastic structure within which to examine the consistency of household level data and revealed preference theory an application is made to a long time series of repeated cross sections from the family expenditure survey for britain the consistency of these data with revealed preference theory is examined for periods of consistency with revealed preference tight bounds are placed on true cost of living indices

the demand for money a dynamic rational expectations model macroeconomic modelling generally has widely adopted the use of forwardlooking variables in behavioural relationships studies of the demand for money being something of an exception the aim of this paper is to provide preliminary empirical results of a model which explicitly incorporates expectations of the future into the demand function for narrow money the approach adopted is the modelling of the demand for money within a multi period costs of adjustment framework under the assumption of rational expectations agents are assumed to pursue a target or long run level of money balances which is itself a function of prices income and interest rates this results in an empirical specification which consists of both backwardlooking and forward looking components the model is estimated using uk data for the period i963i i983iii the remainder of the paper is divided into four sections in section i we outline the framework in which our model is derived in the following section we discuss the econometric techniques used and in section iii we present our empirical results a final section concludes

the long run stability of the demand for money italy 1861 1996 this paper examines the stability of the demand for money in italy using a newly extended data set for the period 1861 1996 we examine how the evolution of the financial system in italy and policy shifts have affected the behavior of the long run demand for money and present tests of structural stability we find the demand for broad money to be remarkably stable despite periods of considerable economic turbulence in addition we present evidence on the monetary transmission mechanism our results shed light on attempts to model long run relationships in other countries such as the uk and the us

long run money demand in taiwan revisited evidence from a cointegrating str approach previous studies on the nonlinearity of the money demand function focus only on short run dynamics and assume that the long run cointegrated relationship is linear which according to economic theory need not be the case thus this article focuses on the variables that make up the long run money demand function in taiwan and their determinants by using the cointegrating smoothing transition regression cstr test developed by choi and saikkonen 2004 this model is more general than the previous str model in that it may contain several transition functions and has more than a single transition variable we demonstrate our empirical results for robustness and adopt two models to ascertain whether or not the stock price should be added as a determinant of the demand for money our empirical results show the existence of a stationary long run relationship among real money demand functions for the period from 1976q1 to 2005q1 and the robustness test covers the 1980q1 2005q1 period in taiwan by comparing

the microfoundations project in general equilibrium theory the author 1 argues that the long lived microfoundations project based on general equilibrium models has come to an end and 2 shows that non walrasian models intended to provide microfoundations for macroeconomics are inadequate the arguments are derived from the sonnenschein mantel debreu smd demonstration of the arbitrariness of aggregate excess demands in general equilibrium models of the walrasian arrow debreu mckenzie type the issues raised have significance for the proper method of modeling macroeconomic phenomena for instance the smd results have led a growing number of general equilibrium theorists to make assumptions concerning macroeconomic structure in order to analyze other regularities at the macro level these points validate the position that systematic macroeconomic phenomena are intrinsically macroeconomic copyright 1994 by oxford university press

money demand instability expectations and policy regimes a note on the case of italy 1964 1986 abstract this paper compares the stability performance of feedback and feedforward specifications of the demand for m2 in italy over the period 1962 1986 a clear change in the monetary policy regime occurred in 1969 1970 together with marked breaks in the processes generating several relevant variables in the mid 70s making this period particularly appropriate for the investigation of the potential role of expectations our main results show that the feedback specification suffers from instability at both relevant dates whereas the feedforward specification is remarkably stable during the policy regime change but displays signs of instability during the mid 70s

your next of kin or your own career caring and working among the 50 of europe an increasing demand for both formal and informal care is likely to result from the ongoing demographic transition at the same time as there is a further move away from the traditional domestic division of labour public policy making that aims at increasing the supply of informal care necessitates knowledge about the relative importance of various incentives for individual care providers this paper takes as a point of departure that the willingness to supply informal care is partly explained by the extent to which it adversely affects labour market outcomes and analyses the effect on labour market outcomes of providing informal care to one s elderly parent s among the 50 of europe data from share survey of health ageing and retirement in europe was used to examine the association between on the one hand hours of informal care provided and on the other 1 the probability of employment 2 hours worked and 3 wages respectively the results suggest that giving informal care to one s elderly parents is associated with significant costs in terms of foregone labour market opportunities and that these adverse effects vary between countries

do they care too much to work the influence of caregiving intensity on the labour force participation of unpaid caregivers in canada the recent growth of the home care sector combined with societal and demographic changes have given rise to concerns about the adequacy of the supply of family and friend caregivers potential caregivers face competing time pressures that pull them in the direction of the labour market on one hand and towards unpaid caregiving duties on the other this paper examines the influence of unpaid caregiving on the labour supply of a cohort of working aged caregivers in canada with particular emphasis on caregiving intensity results suggest that caregivers are heterogeneous in both their caregiving inputs and associated labour market responses thereby underscoring the importance of controlling for caregiving intensity when measuring labour supply the negative influence of primary caregiving on labour supply appears to be at the level of labour force participation rather than on hours of work or wages

a cautionary note on the interpretation of long run equilibrium solutions in conventional macro models in recent years the modelling methodology associated with hendry and mizon i978 and davidson et al i978 has become standard practice in the econometric estimation of many key relationships in uk macro models this note takes issue with one aspect of this methodology namely the recommendation that the static equilibrium solution of final estimated forms should conform with static steady state economic theory the main contention is that dynamic estimated forms that make no explicit acknowledgement of expectational processes will often prove incapable on their own of yielding estimates of true steady state equilibrium or long run parameters particularly under rational expectations it is stressed that the long run solutions of conventional distributed lag equations cannot be interpreted in isolation from the parameters of the sample period datageneration processes for the rationally expected variables the point applies equally well to the interpretation of either staticor dynamic equilibrium solutions after developing the reasoning in a static equilibrium framework the natural extension to the context of dynamic equilibrium as characterised by currie i98i is presented the basic principles on which the argument is based are in no way new they were originally developed by sargent i97i and lucas i972 and have gained widespread application in the rational expectations literature for example in lucas s i976 critique of econometric policy evaluation recently mccallum i984 has applied them to discredit the general validity of using the lowfrequency or long periodicity components of economic time series to test the long run propositions of economic theory this note merely attempts a reexposition with particular reference to the evaluation of equation properties in models that purport to represent intertemporal behaviour without explicitly characterising expectational processes were it not a prevalent practice to identify the long run solutions particularly the static versions of such equations with the parameters of static steady state economic theory this note would not be necessary however the evidence suggests otherwise and seems to justify the need for a restatement that exposes the potential for this procedure to give rise to seriously misleading conclusions when expectational processes are important in the case of rational expectations it is shown that if proper thought is given to the dependence of expectations formation on sample period time series behaviour then the problems are by no means insurmountable

dynamic wage and employment effects of elder parent care this article formulates and estimates a dynamic discrete choice model of elder parent care and work to analyze how caregiving affects a woman s current and future labor force participation and wages the model incorporates parental health changes human capital accumulation and job offer availability the estimates indicate that women face low probabilities of returning to work or increasing work hours after a caregiving spell i use the estimated model to simulate the caregiving employment and welfare effects of a longer unpaid work leave than currently available under the family and medical leave act a paid leave and a caregiver allowance

a new look at the classical bertrand duopoly abstract the paper provides necessary and sufficient conditions for the uniqueness of pure strategy nash equilibrium in the standard bertrand duopoly with a homogeneous product the main condition is elementary easy to interpret and nests all known sufficient conditions in the literature

testing for the stability of money demand in italy has the euro influenced the monetary transmission mechanism stability of money demand is a crucial issue for the efficacy of monetary policy this is particularly true in the presence of significant exogenous shocks to the monetary system by implementing the most recent econometric testing procedures this article intends to investigate the consistency of the stability of money demand in italy one of the larger european monetary union emu countries before and after the emu among others the objective is indeed to ascertain the effect of a change in the currency regime on the monetary aggregates and to provide a valid empirical model which is a viable tool for policy performance

on 64 majority rule introduction d une definition de consensus social base sur deux restrictions une sur les preferences individuelles et l autre sur la distribution des preferences dans ce cas de consensus une regle de majorite a 64 presente de nombreuses proprietes interessantes par opposition aux regles de super majorite possedant des proprietes paradoxales comme les regles electorales americaines

the conduct of monetary policy nowadays the central bank of a country is the monopoly supplier of legal tender currency the commercial banks are committed to making their deposits convertible at par into such currency so the banks need to keep reserves in the form of currency and deposits at the central bank the central bank primarily conducts its policy by buying and selling financial securities e g treasury bills or foreign exchange in exchange for its own liabilities i e open market operations academic economists generally regard such operations as adjusting the quantitative volume of the banks reserve base and hence of the money stock with rates prices in such markets simultaneously determined by the interplay of demand and supply central bank practitioners almost always view themselves as unable to deny the banks the reserve base that the banking system requires and see themselves as setting the level of interest rates at which such reserve requirements are met with the quantity of money then simultaneously determined by the portfolio preferences of private sector banks and non banks this difference in perceptions is discussed again in section iii whether the monetary policy operations of central banks should be viewed primarily in terms of quantity or rate setting actions though of course one is the dual of the other these had allowed inflation and inflationary expectations to become entrenched by the end of the i970s a selection of representative statistics for a number of the leading industrialised countries is given in table i below this table indicates a common pattern among the countries of interaction between interest rates inflation and the growth of output the first period i969 78 is marked by high inflation negative real interest rates and slightly above average growth the second period i979 82 by very high nominal and high real interest rates high but falling inflation and very low output growth the final period i983 7 is marked by much lower inflation lower nominal but still high real interest rates and a recovery in output growth in some cases to above average rates in contrast the relationship in these countries between the growth of their chosen key monetary aggregate and nominal incomes appears much weaker also see clinton and chouraqui i987 especially p 7 whether measured in terms of monetary growth or in terms of real interest rates i e after adjustment for prospective future inflation policy during the

cointegration and dynamic time series models abstract this paper provides a survey of some of the recent developments in the field of econometric modelling with cointegrated time series in particular we describe the testing and estimation procedures which have become increasingly popular in the recent applied literature in addition to the two stage procedure proposed by engle and granger we consider extensions to the modelling of dynamic models with cointegrated variables such as the estimation of models with multiple cointegration vectors simultaneous systems models with seasonally integrated and cointegrated variables furthermore we illustrate the practical application of the techniques describes in the paper by means of a tutorial data set

the long run behavior of the income velocity of money in five advanced countries 1870 1975 an institutional approach the income velocity of money in canada the united states great britain norway and sweden displays a u shaped pattern over the last one hundred years this paper presents and tests empirically an explanation for this secular pattern emphasizing the influence on velocity of institutional changes the inclusion into a simple velocity function of institutional developments such as the process of monetization the spread of commercial banking financial development and the growth of economic stability improves the explanation of long run movements in velocity provided by a regression of velocity on real permanent income per head and the interest rate

informal care and long term labor market outcomes in this paper we estimate long run effects of informal care provision on female caregivers labor market outcomes up to eight years after care provision we compare a static version where average effects of care provision in a certain year on later labor market outcomes are estimated to a partly dynamic version where the effects of up to three consecutive years of care provision are analyzed our results suggest that there are significant initial negative effects of informal care provision on the probability to work full time the reduction in the probability to work full time by 4 percentage points or 2 4 5 0 if we move from point to partial identification is persistent over time short run effects on hourly wages are zero but we find considerable long run wage penalties

heterogeneity biases distributional effects and aggregate consumption an empirical analysis using stratified microdata using stratified microdata from the canadian famex 78 86 surveys this paper investigates whether observed heterogeneity in marginal propensities to consume across strata actually hinders the aggregation process despite significant heterogeneity in marginal responses the divergences between aggregate predicted consumption and the predictions from a model that uses average strata responses are found to be small whenever the strata demands are approximatively linear at the mean and the commodity group considered is not a luxury good on the other hand some cross sectional estimates obtained by pooling the strata are shown to be contaminated by unwanted cross moments further the analysis reconciles the fact that while there exists significant heterogeneity in consumer demands the related distributional effects in the aggregate equation have not been found to be important

the political economy of long term care we build a two dimensional political economy model to explain the provision and financing of long term care and income redistribution voting agents differ in need and income opening up two conflicts one sets families with disabled parents who are in favor of a public long term care program against the ones without such parents who oppose public financing the other sets the poor against the rich with the former preferring heavier income taxation than the latter we show that a structure induced equilibrium always exists and that it is unique if informal care is provided in equilibrium the equilibrium not only explains the negative association of income inequality and long term care financing but also allows predictions about how demographic change might impact long term care arrangements and expenses

optimal income distribution rules and representative consumers this paper derives observable properties of economies with optimal income distribution rules that specify consumers incomes as functions of aggregate income and prices optimality implies that the aggregate demand function is generated by a single representative consumer cf samuelson 1956 we derive an additional implication which when consumers receive fixed shares of aggregate income requires that the consumers demands become more dispersed when aggregate income rises this last condition has empirical support the results relate the representative consumer s preferences to a version of kaldor s compensation criterion and show when both can be used for normative analysis without internal inconsistency

aggregate consumer behavior and household equivalence scales this article presents estimates of household equivalence scales broken down by demographic characteristics of u s households separate estimates are given by family size age of head region race and urban versus rural residence commodity specific scales are presented for five separate commodity groups energy food consumer goods capital services and other services the estimates are obtained from an econometric model of aggregate consumer behavior the parameters of this model are estimated by combining aggregate time series and individual cross section data