fiscal decentralisation the knowledge economy and school teachers wages in urban china abstractwe examine how fiscal decentralisation and progress towards the development of a knowledge intensive economy has affected teachers wages in china utilising panel data from 2001 to 2013 we find that fiscal decentralisation has a negative impact on teachers wages and that this effect is magnified through a deepening of the knowledge economy while the knowledge economy itself has no effect on teachers wages the findings suggest that incentives being offered to local administrators need to be revisited if china is convinced of the need to increase teacher quality in ways suited to the knowledge economy which it wishes to construct

women s work sibling competition and children s school performance this research offers an interpretation of the relationship between fertility child spacing family resources and market work by mothers and the subsequent cognitive skills of grade schoolers as reported by their teachers first an approach to fertility as the outcome of a deliberate choice process is developed and then empirical evidence from a small panel of u s households first interviewed in 1975 76 when they had preschool children is presented in a 1981 82 reinterview a supplementary project was that of obtaining teacher ratings of school performance of individual children large family size as measured by the number of siblings of given age and sex in the household during preschool years in 1975 76 has an important negative impact on the child s subsequent grade school performance boy siblings in nearby age ranges have the most negative impact on performance while teenage siblings of either sex have no systematic adverse effect parental resources as measured by income education child care time and a mother s reduced market time are associated with greater cognitive skills and can offset the apparent disadvantage of having siblings in nearby age intervals there appears to be a significant tradeoff between a market career and a home career for women women who have more children spaced over wider age intervals and who devote more time to child care and less to market work presumably get more benefits from their home career in the form of enhanced child development on the other hand full time market work i e hours in the labor market for pay is important for earnings growth of the mother mary corcoran greg duncan and michael ponza 1983 and family income has a favorable effect on school performance so the apparent choices facing women are more equivocal

teacher quality in educational production tracking decay and student achievement growing concerns over the inadequate achievement of u s students have led to proposals to reward good teachers and penalize or fire bad ones the leading method for assessing teacher quality is value added modeling vam which decomposes students test scores into components attributed to student heterogeneity and to teacher quality implicit in the vam approach are strong assumptions about the nature of the educational production function and the assignment of students to classrooms in this paper i develop falsification tests for three widely used vam specifications based on the idea that future teachers cannot influence students past achievement in da ta from north carolina each of the vams exclusion restrictions are dramatically viola ted in particular these models indicate large effects of 5th grade teachers on 4th grade t est score gains i also find that conventional measures of individual teachers value added fade out very quickly and are at best weakly related to long run effects i discuss implic ations for the use of vams as personnel tools

do better schools matter parental valuation of elementary education the evaluation of numerous school reforms requires an understanding of the value of better schools given the difficulty of calculating the relationship between school quality and student outcomes i turn to another method and use house prices to infer the value parents place on school quality i look within school districts at houses located on attendance district boundaries houses then differ only by the elementary school the child attends i thereby effectively remove the variation in neighborhoods taxes and school spending i find that parents are willing to pay 2 5 percent more for a 5 percent increase in test scores this finding is robust to a number of sensitivity checks

measuring the impacts of teachers ii teacher value added and student outcomes in adulthood abstract are teachers impacts on students test scores value added a good measure of their quality this question has sparked debate partly because of a lack of evidence on whether high value ad

cheap children and the persistence of poverty this paper develops a theory of fertility that offers an explanation for the persistence of poverty within and across countries if educated individuals have a comparative advantage in raising educated children then parental fertility choice is shown to give rise to a poverty trap in which the poor choose high fertility rates with low investment in child quality moreover the impact of child quality choice on economic performance is amplified by the diluting effect of higher fertility on physical capital accumulation the theory proposes insights regarding the effects of inequality globalisation and life expectancy on economic growth and demographic transitions this paper develops a theory of fertility and child educational choice that offers an explanation for the persistence of poverty within and across countries the joint determination of the quality education and quantity of children in a household is studied under the key assumption that individuals productivity as teachers increases with their own human capital in contrast the minimum time cost associated with raising a child regardless of the child s quality the quantity cost is not affected by parental education as a result the price of child quantity relative to the price of child quality increases with individuals wages in particular for low wage individuals for whom the opportunity cost of time is low children of minimal quality are cheap this assumption therefore generates a comparative advantage for the poor in child quantity whereas high wage educated individuals have a comparative advantage in raising quality children consistent with the well known evidence poor households thus choose relatively high fertility rates with relatively low investment in their offspring s education and therefore their offspring are poor as well in contrast high income families choose low fertility rates with high investment in education and therefore high income persists in the dynasty evidence from the us provided by hanushek 1992 suggests that a trade off between quantity and quality of children does indeed exist hanushek argues that movements in family size could explain over half the variance in some test scores and that the elasticity of achievements with respect to the number of children in the family is 0 03 implying that the annual achievement growth of each child in a family will fall about 2 when a second child is added and about 0 5 when a sixth child is added 1

natural disasters and human capital accumulation the empirical literature on the relationship between natural disaster risk and investment in education is inconclusive model averaging methods in a framework of cross country and panel regressions show an extremely robust negative partial correlation between secondary school enrollment and natural disaster risk this result is driven exclusively by geologic disasters exposure to natural disaster risk is a robust determinant of differences in secondary school enrollment between countries but not necessarily within countries natural disasters human capital education school enrollment bayesian model averaging

competition between private and public schools vouchers and peer group effects a theoretical and computational model with tax financed tuition free public schools and competitive tuition financed private schools is developed students differ by ability and income achievement depends on own ability and on peers abilities equilibrium has a strict hierarchy of school qualities and two dimensional student sorting with stratification by ability and income in private schools high ability low income students receive tuition discounts while low ability high income students pay tuition premia tuition vouchers increase the relative size of the private sector and the extent of student sorting and benefit high ability students relative to low ability students

using romer and romer s new measure of monetary policy shocks to identify the ad and as shocks this article re examines the series of exogenous federal funds rate ffr shocks created by romer and romer 2004 for the period 1969 01 1996 12 we hypothesize that if romer and romer have constructed a reasonable set of monetary policy shocks then including them in a small vector autoregression var should help to identify other structural shocks that affected the united states economy during their sample period using a sample period of 1971 01 1996 12 we are easily able to identify both an aggregate demand ad shock and an aggregate supply as shock without imposing any sign or long run restrictions we present historical decompositions that allow us to compare the relative importance of these shocks with that of the exogenous monetary policy shocks in explaining output fluctuations during the 1973 1975 1980 1984 and 1990 1991 business cycle episodes

housing finance and monetary policy we document three facts concerning how the structure of housing finance affects the monetary transmission mechanism first the characteristics of residential mortgage markets differ markedly across industrialized countries second the impact of monetary policy shocks to residential investment and house prices is significantly stronger in those countries with larger flexibility development of mortgage markets third the transmission to consumption is stronger only in those countries where mortgage equity release is common and mortgage contracts are predominantly of the variable rate type we then build a two sector dsge model with financial constraints to rationalize those facts

the value of children inter generational support fertility and human capital abstract this paper offers robust empirical evidence of a darwinian pro natalist mechanism parents can improve their old age support with an additional child using the incidence of first born twins as an instrument for fertility outcomes i find that chinese senior parents with more children receive more financial transfers and are more likely to co reside with an adult child they are also less likely to work past retirement age the estimated effects are large despite the evidence that adult children from larger families are less educated and earn significantly less interestingly the effect of an increase in the number of children on old age support does not depend on the child s gender

the quality and distribution of teachers under the no child left behind act the heart of accountability under the no child left behind nclb act is an attempt to change the existing incentives in schools with the ultimate objective that all students meet a proficiency standard existing research indicates that nothing is more important to high achieve ment as having effective teachers implying that the impact of new incentives on teachers will be central to any consideration of the accountability statutes tracing the impacts of nclb on the stock and distribution of teachers is none theless a difficult and uncertain task the belief that the quality of teachers matters a great deal to the quality of education received by students has actually proven hard to substantiate and the reasons for this difficulty are key to assessing the impacts of no child left behind a substantial body of research going back to the coleman et al 1966 report has attempted to link commonly used measures of teacher quality such as experience degree level and state teacher certification to student outcomes surprisingly except for perhaps the first few years of classroom experience no robust connection has appeared for example hanushek and rivkin 2006 review various studies attempting to identify characteristics of effective teachers one

katrina s children evidence on the structure of peer effects from hurricane evacuees in 2005 hurricanes katrina and rita forced many children to relocate across the southeast while schools quickly enrolled evacuees receiving families worried about the impact of evacuees on non evacuee students data from houston and louisiana show that on average the influx of evacuees moderately reduced elementary math test scores in houston we reject linear in means models of peer effects and find evidence of a highly non linear but monotonic model student achievement improves with high ability and worsens with low ability peers moreover exposure to undisciplined evacuees increased native absenteeism and disciplinary problems supporting a bad apple model in behavior

the effect of evaluation on teacher performance observable teacher characteristics like graduate education and experience beyond the first few years are not typically correlated with increased productivity many researchers and policymakers have suggested that under these conditions the only way to adjust the teacher distribution for the better is to gather information on individual productivity through evaluation and then dismiss low performers this paper offers evidence that evaluation can shift the teacher effectiveness distribution through a different mechanism by improving teacher skill effort or both in ways that persist long run we study a sample of mid career math teachers in the cincinnati public schools cps who were assigned to evaluation in a manner that permits a quasi experimental analysis all teachers in our sample were evaluated by a year long classroom observation based program the treatment between 2003 2004 and 2009 2010 the timing of each teacher s specific evaluation year was determined years earlier by a district planning process to this setting we add measures of student achievement which were not part of the evaluation and use the within teacher over time variation to compare teacher performance before during and after their evaluation year we find that teachers are more productive during the school year when they are being evaluated but even more productive in the years after evaluation a student taught by a teacher after that teacher has been through the cincinnati evaluation will score about 10 percent of a standard deviation higher in math than a similar student taught by the same teacher before the teacher was evaluated under our identification strategy these estimates may be biased by patterns of student assignment that favor previously evaluated teachers or by preexisting positive

social spillovers in the classroom identification estimation and policy analysis i present a method to jointly estimate social spillovers in the classroom and the distributions of teacher and student effects this method is based on the covariance and higher order moments restrictions of the test scores requiring the random assignment of teachers and students to classrooms using the tennessee project star dataset i estimate sizeable spillovers in kindergarten classrooms and departures from normality of the teacher and student ability distributions the estimates also show that reducing class size has a positive effect on mean performance but it increases the inequality based on these estimates i perform several input neutral policy counterfactuals involving teachers and students assignment rules and changing the distribution of class sizes for the latter i derive an optimal class size distribution rule which increases mean test scores and reduces the overall variance

corruption fertility and human capital abstract we build an overlapping generations model in which reproductive households face a child quantity child quality trade off and bureaucrats are delegated with the task of delivering public services that support the accumulation of human capital by integrating the theoretical analyses of endogenous growth corruption and fertility choices we show that the negative relation between fertility and economic development may also be affected by differences in the magnitude of bureaucratic corruption

the effect of school choice on participants evidence from randomized lotteries school choice has become an increasingly prominent strategy for enhancing academic achievement to evaluate the impact on participants we exploit randomized lotteries that determine high school admission in the chicago public schools compared to those students who lose lotteries students who win attend high schools that are better in a number of dimensions including peer achievement and attainment levels nonetheless we find little evidence that winning a lottery provides any systematic benefit across a wide variety of traditional academic measures lottery winners do however experience improvements on a subset of nontraditional outcome measures such as self reported disciplinary incidents and arrest rates

inflation targeting as a monetary policy rule the purpose of the paper is to survey and discuss in ation targeting in the context of monetary policy rules the paper provides a general conceptual discussion of monetary policy rules attempts to clarify the essential characteristics of in ation targeting compares in ation targeting to other monetary policy rules and draws some conclusions for the monetary policy of the european system of central banks jel classi cation e42 e52

the pre programme earnings dip and the determinants of participation in a social programme implications for simple programme evaluation strategies the key to estimating the impact of a programme is constructing the counterfactual outcome representing what would have happened in its absence this problem becomes more complicated when agents such as individuals firms or local governments self select into the programme rather than being exogenously assigned to it this paper uses data from a major social experiment to identify what would have happened to the earnings of self selected participants in a job training programme had they not participated in it we investigate the implications of these earnings patterns for the validity of widely used before after and difference in differences estimators

inflation forecast targeting implementing and monitoring inflation targets abstract inflation targeting is shown to imply inflation forecast targeting the central bank s inflation forecast becomes an explicit intermediate target inflation forecast targeting simplifies both implementation and monitoring of monetary policy the weight on output stabilization determines how quickly the inflation forecast is adjusted towards the inflation target money growth or exchange rate targeting is generally inferior than inflation targeting and leads to higher inflation variability commitment to target rules may be better than commitment to instrument rules

do dropouts drop out too soon wealth health and happiness from compulsory schooling abstract this paper uses compulsory schooling laws to evaluate high school dropout decisions the main empirical result is that lifetime wealth increases by about 15 with an extra year of compulsory schooling students compelled to stay in school are also less likely to report being in poor health unemployed and unhappy the main conclusion is that high school aversion alone is unlikely to explain why dropouts forgo substantial gains to lifetime wealth the results are more consistent with the possibility that adolescents ignore or heavily discount future consequences when deciding to drop out of school if teenagers are myopic making school compulsory or offering incentives to stay in school may help improve lifetime outcomes

school choice stratification and information on school performance lessons from chile in the early 1980s chile implemented a nationwide school choice system under which the government finances education via a flat per student sub sidy or voucher to the public or private school chosen by a family at present about 94 percent of all schools public religious and secular private are voucher funded more than half of urban schools are private and most of these operate as for profit institutions 1 since the early 1990s chile has also publicized information on school performance and increased per pupil expen diture substantially despite these and other reforms chile has found it challenging to improve students learning outcomes 2 hsieh and urquiola find that the country s rel ative performance in international tests did not change much between 1970 and 1999 3 its performance on the 2000 programme for international student assessment pisa is not only much lower than the oecd average but is similar to that of other latin american countries and low relative to countries with similar income per capita

the impact of charter school attendance on student performance abstract we employ a panel of individual student data on math and reading test performance for five cohorts of students in texas to study the impact of charter school attendance we control for school mobility effects and distinguish movement to a charter school from movement within and between traditional public school districts we find students experience poor test score growth in their initial year in a charter school but that this is followed by recovery in the subsequent years failure to account for this pattern may lead to potentially misleading estimates of the impact of charter attendance on student achievement students who remain in charters largely recover from the initial disruption within approximately 3 years and there is weak evidence that there may be overall gains from charter attendance within this period furthermore students who return to traditional public schools after just 1 or 2 years in a charter do not appear to suffer a lasting negative impact despite their poor average performance in their first year of charter attendance

a theory of the bureaucratic value of federal reserve operating procedures beginning in the mid 1960s and continuing since there has raged a prolonged argument over the proper method or operating strategy for carrying out open market operations this argument has led the federal reserve to experiment with and abandon a number of strategies however until the most recent experiment which began in october 1979 all these strategies had one common component all utilized some money market interest rate as the immediate target of omo undoubtedly the federal reserve s reluctance to give up its money market target was founded on economic theoretic grounds the keynesian model which was dominant throughout the 1950s and 1960s and into the 1970s concentrated on interest rates not monetary aggregates economists trained in this tradition naturally would be slow to discard the received knowledge of the era this paper sets out another reason for the fed s tenacity in holding to the money market mode of operation it analyzes the federal reserve system as a bureau run by individuals who seek to maintain the autonomy of their organization from this perspective the choice of an operating strategy will be made not only on economic grounds but also on political since the political attractiveness of various strategies may differ considerably the fed may be substantially influenced by non economic factors in its choice of methods section 1 sets out the theory of bureaucracy used to analyze federal reserve behavior section 2 describes a model of federal reserve information provision developed by b m friedman 1978 the third section briefly reviews the history of federal reserve open market operations since the 1950s paying special attention to the fed s choice of operating strategies and the criticisms of those strategies by insiders and outsiders section 4 presents evidence that the policy followed by the fed during the 1970s did indeed provide considerable information about future plans enabling the

worker absence and productivity evidence from teaching a significant amount of work time is lost each year due to worker absence but evidence on the productivity losses from absenteeism remains scant due to difficulties with identification we use uniquely detailed data on the timing duration and cause of absences among teachers to address many of the potential biases from the endogeneity of worker absence our analysis indicates that worker absences have large negative impacts the expected loss in daily productivity from employing a temporary substitute is on par with replacing a regular worker of average productivity with one at the 10th 20th percentile of productivity

the economics of schooling production and efficiency in public schools n recent years public and professional interest in schools has been heightened by a spate of reports many of them critical of current school policy these policy documents have added to persistent and long standing concerns about the cost effectiveness and fairness of the current school structure and have made schooling once again a serious public issue as in the past however any renewed interest in education is likely to be short lived doomed to dissipate as frustration over the inability of policy to improve school practice sets in this frustration about school policy relates directly to knowledge about the educational production process and in turn to underlying research on schools although the educational process has been extensively researched clear policy prescriptions flowing from this research have been difficult to derive 2 there exists however a consistency to the research findings that does have an immediate application to school policy schools differ dramatically in quality

the limits of independence and the policy of the ecb it is argued that the european central bank s independence is not as secure as it seems and that as a result it has appreciable institutional incentives to protect and enhance its position it follows that its behaviour should not be understood as being solely determined by the pursuit of price stability one consequence is that certain points on which it has been criticised on the basis that its approach makes for ineffective monetary policy might be better understood as often effective attempts to protect its position another is that making a central bank or any other institution completely independent may be much harder than it seems and failed attempts which come close are not necessarily to be preferred even by the advocates of independence to less ambitious designs

preliminary evidence on the determinants of federal reserve open market operations in the absence of a fixed policy rule the federal reserve bank fed has significant discretion in setting monetary policy the existence of professional fedwatchers attests to the fact that fed policy actions are difficult to interpret recent literature has focused on the motivations behind fed policy making and the need for secrecy and ambiguity we investigate one aspect of fed behavior the propensity of the fed to buy and sell government securities beyond that required to implement stated policies milton friedman 1982 26 called attention to this issue when he wrote

selection on observed and unobserved variables assessing the effectiveness of catholic schools in this paper we measure the effect of catholic high school attendance on educational attainment and test scores because we do not have a good instrumental variable for catholic school attendance we develop new estimation methods based on the idea that the amount of selection on the observed explanatory variables in a model provides a guide to the amount of selection on the unobservables we also propose an informal way to assess selectivity bias based on measuring the ratio of selection on unobservables to selection on observables that would be required if one is to attribute the entire effect of catholic school attendance to selection bias we use our methods to estimate the effect of attending a catholic high school on a variety of outcomes our main conclusion is that catholic high schools substantially increase the probability of graduating from high school and more tentatively attending college we find little evidence of an effect on test scores

mobility targeting and private school vouchers simulations are derived from a three district model of low middle and highincome school districts calibrated to new york data with housing stocks that vary within and across districts in this model it is demonstrated that school district targeted vouchers are similar in their impact to nontargeted vouchers but vastly different from vouchers targeted to low income households furthermore strong migration effects are shown to significantly improve the likely equity consequences of voucher programs jel 122 128 h73 persistent frustration with the perceived low quality of public education exacerbated by concerns over the inherently unequal levels of public school quality across school districts has caused policy makers courts and researchers to investigate modifications and alternatives to the current public school system one idea that has received increasing academic and public attention is that of private school vouchers with proponents arguing that the competitive pressures of voucher programs would cause improvements in the efficiency of the publicschool system while at the same time addressing equity concerns if vouchers can be targeted to low income households or low income school districts but aside from a few limited experiments in some u s cities our experience with vouchers in the united states remains virtually nonexistent this limits the amount of information researchers can derive from standard empirical analysis in that it forces them to rely on only current nonvoucher induced differences in competition despite important suggestive results such work may not anticipate all the impacts from a large scale policy such as the voucher policies currently under discussion at the same time theoretical models of school finance are also limited in that they often either focus on only one particular aspect of the general equilibrium school finance problem or they are too rich and complex to yield crisp predictions

the impact of alternative grade configurations on student outcomes through middle and high school abstract we use statewide administrative data from florida to estimate the impact of attending public schools with different grade configurations on student achievement through grade 10 based on an instrumental variable estimation strategy we find that students moving from elementary to middle school suffer a sharp drop in student achievement in the transition year these achievement drops persist through grade 10 we also find that middle school entry increases student absences and is associated with higher grade 10 dropout rates transitions to high school in grade 9 cause a smaller one time drop in achievement but do not alter students performance trajectories

pension enhancements and the retention of public employees the authors use data from workers in the largest public sector occupation in the united states teaching to examine the effect of pension enhancements on employee retention specifically they study

choice competition and pupil achievement choice and competition in education have recently found growing support from both policy makers and academics yet evidence on the actual benefits of market orientated reforms is at best mixed moreover although the economic rationale for choice and competition is clear in existing work there is rarely an attempt to distinguish between the two concepts in this paper we study whether pupils in primary schools in england with a wider range of school choices achieve better academic outcomes than those whose choice is more limited and whether primary schools facing more competition perform better than those in a more monopolistic situation in simple least squares regression models we find little evidence of a link between choice and achievement but uncover a small positive association between competition and school performance yet this could be related to endogenous school location or pupil sorting in fact an instrumental variable strategy based on discontinuities generated by admissions district boundaries suggests that the performance gains from greater school competition are limited only when we restrict our attention to voluntary aided schools which have more freedom in managing their governance and admission practices do we find some evidence of a positive causal link between competition and pupil achievement jel i20 h70 r5

the academic and labor market returns of university professors this paper estimates the impact of college teaching on students academic achievement and labor market outcomes using administrative data from bocconi university italy matched with italian tax records the estimation exploits the random allocation of students to teachers in a fixed sequence of compulsory courses we find that good teaching matters more for the labor market than for academic performance moreover the professors who are best at improving the academic achievement of their best students are also the ones who boost their earnings the most on the contrary for low ability students the academic and labor market returns of teachers are largely uncorrelated we also find that professors who are good at teaching high ability students are often not the best teachers for the least able ones these findings can be rationalized in a model where teaching is a multi dimensional activity with each dimension having differential returns on the students academic outcomes and labor market success

outsourcing education experimental evidence from liberia in 2016 the liberian government delegated management of 93 randomly selected public schools to private providers providers received us 50 per pupil on top of us 50 per pupil annual expenditure in control schools after one academic year students in outsourced schools scored 0 18 higher in english and mathematics we do not find heterogeneity in learning gains or enrollment by student characteristics but there is significant heterogeneity across providers while outsourcing appears to be a cost effective way to use new resources to improve test scores some providers engaged in unforeseen and potentially harmful behavior complicating any assessment of welfare gains

occupational variation in quantity quality trade off in a brawn based economy the paper revisits the theory of the quantity quality trade off and demonstrates that the relationship between quantity and health of children is subject to occupational variation in physical energ

choice information and constrained options school transfers in a stratified educational system it is well known that family socioeconomic background influences childhood access to opportunities educational reforms that introduce new information about school quality may lead to increased ine

the impacts of teacher working conditions and human capital on student achievement evidence from brazilian longitudinal data abstractwe use a new longitudinal matched student teacher data from brazil to examine the impacts of teacher human capital and working conditions on student learning controlling for student teache

modelling inflation shifts and persistence in tunisia perspectives from an evolutionary spectral approach this article examines the dynamic characteristics of the inflation rate in tunisia over the last two decades and particularly following the onset of the arab spring in 2010 which causes distortions in this country s monetary policy we focus on the two specific dimensions of the tunisian inflation rate inflation regimes and persistence we tackle this issue by adopting an evolutionary spectral approach initially proposed by priestley and tong 1973 our main findings indicate a stable inflation regime in the last 10 years with an average inflation rate of around 5 5 it is also found that the tunisian inflation experienced a high degree of inertia which reflects its gradual responses to shocks we also discuss the policy implications of these results which typically require policy makers to implement sound institutional reforms to reduce inflation

investing in schools capital spending facility conditions and student achievement abstract public investments in repairs modernization and construction of schools cost billions however little is known about the nature of school facility investments whether it actually changes the physical condition of public schools and the subsequent causal impacts on student achievement we study the achievement effects of nearly 1400 capital campaigns initiated and financed by local school districts comparing districts where school capital bonds were either narrowly approved or defeated by district voters overall we find little evidence that these school capital campaigns improve student achievement event study analysis focused on the students actually affected by large campus renovations also generates very precise zero estimates of achievement effects thus u s school capital campaigns financed by local districts the predominant method through which facility investments are made may be a limited tool for realizing substantial gains in student achievement or closing achievement gaps

does greater school autonomy make a difference evidence from a randomized natural experiment in south korea abstract we exploit the unique features of high schools in seoul to study the effects of school autonomy on student outcomes under south korea s equalization policy both private and public schools in seoul admit students that are assigned randomly to them receive equal government funding charge identical fees and use similar curricula however private schools have greater flexibility in personnel decisions and their principals and teachers face stronger incentives to perform we find that private high schools have better student outcomes than public high schools our results suggest that autonomy in personnel decisions explains the positive student outcomes in private schools

generalizations about using value added measures of teacher quality the extensive investigation of the contribution of teachers to student achievement produces two generally accepted results first there is sub stantial variation in teacher quality as measured by the value added to achievement or future aca demic attainment or earnings second variables often used to determine entry into the profession and salaries including post graduate schooling experience and licensing examination scores appear to explain little of the variation in teacher quality so measured with the exception of early experience together these findings underscore explicitly that observed teacher characteristics do not represent teacher quality

some tests on the effects of inflation targeting in new zealand canada and the uk abstract there is no empirical evidence that inflation targeting has changed macroeconomic variables in the unrestricted var context there are two possible interpretations for this result one is that inflation targeting may truly have no significant impacts on macroeconomic variables the alternative scenario might be that the number of parameters in our model is so large relative to the number of observations that our tests do not have enough power to reject the null hypothesis of no structural changes further statistical investigations are desirable as more data become available and alternative models are devised

all for the best the federal reserve board s 60th annual report reserve fr documents we virtually pounce on them we criticize everything from the frailest economic argument to the color scheme and quality of the binding except for newsy details necessary to keep our preachments up to date the issues we raise seldom change decade after decade we upbraid the fed about the responsibilities for economic statesmanship that accompany its statutory independence its unwillingness to specify an explicit model of how it believes that its policies impact on economic variables its special concern for cushioning its effects on the money markets the inevitable ineptness of its interventions into specific markets and its extraordinary penchant for humbug fed officials must long have wondered

disruption versus tiebout improvement the costs and benefits of switching schools most students change schools at some point in their academic careers but some change very frequently and some schools experience a great deal of turnover while many argue that mobility harms students economists tend to emphasize tiebout type moves to procure better school quality sq this paper disentangles the disruption effects of moves from changes in sq importantly it identifies the negative externality movers impose on other students student turnover is shown to entail a substantial cost for movers and non movers alike this cost appears to be larger for lower income and minority students who typically attend much higher turnover schools

the effect of school closings on student achievement abstract many school districts across the country are shutting schools but school closing policies remain a very controversial issue the current study investigates the effects of school closing policies on student achievement by examining over 200 school closings in michigan relative to the previous literature the analysis uses a broader set of school closings to thoroughly investigate heterogeneity in treatment effects based on the performance level of the closed school the results indicate that on average school closings in michigan did no persistent harm to the achievement of displaced students moreover students displaced from relatively low performing schools experience achievement gains the displacement of students and teachers creates modest negative spillover effects on the receiving schools however hence the closing of low performing schools may generate some achievement gains for displaced students but not without imposing spillover effects on a large number of students in receiving schools

neighborhood effects on crime for female and male youth evidence from a randomized housing voucher experiment the moving to opportunity mto demonstration assigned housing vouchers via random lottery to public housing residents in five cities we use the exogenous variation in residential locations generated by mto to estimate neighborhood effects on youth crime and delinquency the offer to relocate to lower poverty areas reduces arrests among female youth for violent and property crimes relative to a control group for males the offer to relocate reduces arrests for violent crime at least in the short run but increases problem behaviors and property crime arrests the gender difference in treatment effects seems to reflect differences in how male and female youths from disadvantaged backgrounds adapt and respond to similar new neighborhood environments

the effects of class size on student achievement new evidence from population variation abstract i identify the effects of class size on student achievement using longitudinal variation in the population associated with each grade in 649 elementary schools i use variation in class size driven by idiosyncratic variation in the population i also use discrete jumps in class size that occur when a small change in enrollment triggers a maximum or minimum class size rule the estimates indicate that class size does not have a statistically significant effect on student achievement i rule out even modest effects 2 to 4 percent of a standard deviation in scores for a 10 percent reduction in class size

the trade off between child quantity and quality an empirical investigation of trade offs between number of children and their scholastic performance confirms that family size directly affects children s achievement though parents show no favori

productivity returns to experience in the teacher labor market methodological challenges and new evidence on long term career improvement abstract we present new evidence on the relationship between teacher productivity and job experience econometric challenges require identifying assumptions to model the within teacher returns to experience with teacher fixed effects we describe the identifying assumptions used in past models and in a new approach that we propose and we demonstrate how violations of these assumptions can lead to substantial bias consistent with past research we find that teachers experience rapid productivity improvement early in their careers however we also find evidence of returns to experience later in the career indicating that teachers continue to build human capital beyond these first years

macroeconomic forecasting using diffusion indexes this article studies forecasting a macroeconomic time series variable using a large number of predictors the predictors are summarized using a small number of indexes constructed by principal component analysis an approximate dynamic factor model serves as the statistical framework for the estimation of the indexes and construction of the forecasts the method is used to construct 6 12 and 24 monthahead forecasts for eight monthly u s macroeconomic time series using 215 predictors in simulated real time from 1970 through 1998 during this sample period these new forecasts outperformed univariate autoregressions small vector autoregressions and leading indicator models

teaching to the rating school accountability and the distribution of student achievement this paper examines whether minimum competency school accountability systems such as those created under no child left behind influence the distribution of student achievement because school ratings in these systems only incorporate students test scores via pass rates this type of system increases incentives for schools to improve the performance of students who are on the margin of passing but does not increase short run incentives for schools to improve other students performance using student level panel data from texas during the 1990 s i explicitly calculate schools short run incentives to improve various students expected performance and i find that schools do respond to these incentives students perform better than expected when their test score is particularly important for their schools accountability rating also low achieving students perform better than expected in math when many of their classmates math scores are important for the schools rating while relatively high achieving students do not perform better distributional effects appear to be related to broad changes in resources or instruction as well as narrowly tailored attempts to improve the performance of specific students

private or public school advantage evidence from 40 countries using pisa 2012 mathematics abstractit is known that in most countries private school students outperform students in public schools in international assessments however the empirical literature recognizes that assessing the true effect of private school attendance requires addressing selection and sorting issues on both observabland unobservables the existing empirical evidence on the private school effect mostly covers oecd and latin american countries with little evidence on other parts of the world there is recent emerging country specific evidence doubting the existence of a private school advantage i use pisa 2012 data for mathematics and two different methodologies to derive baseline and bias corrected estimates of the private dependent and independent school effect for 40 countries a robust private school advantage is found only in a handful of countries public schools generally perform as well as private subsidized schools and outperform independent schools accounting for both peer effects and selection is necessa