budget processes and commitment to fiscal discipline abstract we present a framework of investigation into the political economy of the budget process our model suggests that institutional rules governing the budget process can be found to limit the importance of fiscal illusion empirical evidence supports that proposition the choice of rules depends on the political environment as well as the dominant source of uncertainty in the budget process

towards an attention based view of the firm the central argument is that firm behavior is the result of how firms channel and distribute the attention of their decision makers what decision makers do depends on what issues and answers they focus their attention on what issues and answers they focus on depends on the specific situation and on how the firm s rules resources and relationships distribute various issues answers and decision makers into specific communications and procedures the paper develops these theoretical principles into a model of firm behavior and presents its implications for explaining firm behavior and adaptation 1997 by john wiley sons ltd

how do budget deficits and economic growth affect reelection prospects evidence from a large panel of countries conventional wisdom is that good economic conditions and expansionary fiscal policy help incumbents get reelected but this has not been tested in a large cross section of countries we test these arguments in a sample of 74 countries over the period 1960 2003 we find no evidence that deficits help reelection in any group of countries developed and less developed new and old democracies countries with different government or electoral systems and countries with different levels of democracy in developed countries and in old democracies election year deficits actually reduce the probability that a leader is reelected with similar although smaller negative electoral effects of deficits in the earlier years of an incumbent s term in office higher growth rates of real gdp per capita raise the probability of reelection only in the less developed countries and in new democracies but voters are affected by growth over the leader s term in office rather than in the election year itself and apparently only by growth not attributed to global growth low inflation is rewarded by voters only in the developed countries the effects we find are not only statistically significant but also quite substantial quantitatively we also suggest how the absence of a positive electoral effect of deficits can be consistent with the political deficit cycle found in new democracies

a status based model of market competition this article explores the significance of status processes for generating and reproducing hierarchy among producers in a market it develops a conception of a market as a status order in which each

a role based ecology of technological change this article considers what factors determine whether an innovation becomes a foundation for future technological developments rather than a dea end the authors introduce the concept of the technological niche which includes a focal innovation the innovations on which the focal innovations builds the innovations that build upon the focal innovation and the technological ties among the innovations within the niche using patents and patent citations to measure characteristics of innovation niches within the semiconductor industry the authors show that the size of the niche and the status of the actors within the niche have a positive effect on the likelihood that subsequent innovations will build upon the focal innovation competitive intensity within the niche has a negative effect on this likelihood

fiscal policy cycles and public expenditure in developing countries the paper studies empirically the fiscal policy instruments by which governments try to influence election outcomes in 24 developing countries for the 1973 1992 period the study finds that the main vehicle for expansionary fiscal policies around elections is increasing public expenditure rather than lowering taxes and public investment cycles seem particularly prominent institutional mechanisms which constrain discretionary expenditure policies and which strengthen fiscal control are therefore worthwhile considering to prevent opportunistic policy making around elections

discontinuities and senior management assessing the role of recognition in pharmaceutical firm response to biotechnology despite an increasing emphasis on the role of senior management cognition in shaping organizational action there have been few attempts to link top management mental models to strategic choice in the face of discontinuous innovation this paper uses 23 years of data covering 15 major pharmaceutical firms to explore the degree to which each firm s response to the revolution in biotechnology was shaped by the senior team s recognition of biotechnology s importance controlling for a number of important alternative explanations we show that recognition may be an important predictor of action suggesting that cognition at the most senior level can play a critical role in shaping established firms response to discontinuities copyright 2003 oxford university press

opportunistic and partisan election cycles in brazil new evidence at the municipal level this article tests the hypothesis of opportunistic and partisan cycle models using a new large data set of brazilian municipalities over the 1989 2005 period the results show an increase in total and current expenditures and a decrease in municipal investments local tax revenues and budget surplus in election years they also show that partisan ideology exerts a relative influence on the performance of the local public accounts these results confirm that both opportunistic and partisan cycles have occurred in the management of the budgets of brazilian municipalities after the end of the military government

fiscal transparency political parties and debt in oecd countries abstract many believe and argue that fiscal or budgetary transparency has large positive effects on fiscal performance however the evidence linking transparency and fiscal policy outcomes is less compelling to analyze the effects of fiscal transparency on public debt accumulation we present a career concerns model with political parties this allows us to integrate as implications of a single model three hitherto separate results in the literature on deficit and debt accumulation that transparency decreases debt accumulation at least by reducing an electoral cycle in deficits that right wing governments at least for strategic reasons tend to have higher deficits than left wing governments and that increasing political polarization increases debt accumulation to test the predictions of the model we construct a replicable index of fiscal transparency on 19 country oecd data simultaneous estimates of debt and transparency strongly confirm that a higher degree of fiscal transparency is associated with lower public debt and deficits independent of controls for explanatory variables from other approaches

does education improve citizenship evidence from the united states and the united kingdom abstract many studies document an association between schooling and civic participation but none credibly investigate causal links we explore the effect of extra schooling induced through compulsory schooling laws on the likelihood of becoming politically involved in the united states and the united kingdom we find that educational attainment is related to several measures of political interest and involvement in both countries we find a strong and robust relationship between education and voting for the united states but not for the united kingdom our us results approach the uk findings when conditioning on registration possibly indicating that registration rules present a barrier to participation

voting suffrage and the political budget cycle evidence from the london metropolitan boroughs 1902 1937 we study the opportunistic political budget cycle in the london metropolitan boroughs between 1902 and 1937 under two different suffrage regimes taxpayer suffrage 1902 1914 and universal suffrage 1921 1937 we argue and find supporting evidence that the political budget cycle operates differently under the two types of suffrage taxpayer suffrage where the right to vote and the obligation to pay local taxes are linked encourages demands for retrenchment and the political budget cycle manifests itself in election year tax cuts and savings on administration costs universal suffrage where all adult residents can vote irrespective of their taxpayer status creates demands for productive public services and the political budget cycle manifests itself in election year hikes in capital spending and a reduction in current spending

top management s attention to discontinuous technological change corporate venture capital as an alert mechanism technological discontinuities pose serious challenges to top managers attention these discontinuities which often occur at the fringes of an industry are usually driven by innovative and often venture capital backed start ups creating new products and transforming existing industries in ways that are difficult for incumbent managers to understand against the backdrop of their existing cognitive schemata however failing to appreciate and embrace successful technological discontinuities might endanger incumbents very existence extending the attention based view we explore whether and how interorganizational relationships guide top managers attention either to or away from technological discontinuities we propose that homophilous relationships e g alliances with industry peers should exhibit a negative relationship with incumbents timely attention to technological discontinuities whereas heterophilous relationships e g with venture capitalists as a result of coinvestments should exhibit a positive relationship furthermore we hypothesize that the status of the partners strengthens the effect of homophilous and heterophilous relationships with the timely attention of top managers to technological discontinuities based on a longitudinal study of the incumbents in four information and communications technology industry sectors we find that heterophilous ties through corporate venture capital cvc coinvesting with high status venture capital firms exhibit a strong positive relationship with timely attention cvc when it connects senior management to high status venture capitalists through coinvestments has a special role in directing top managers attention to technological discontinuities and ensuing business opportunities implications for the understanding of the role of interorganizational ties as structural determinants of top managers attention are discussed

getting to know you a theory of strategic group identity this paper develops a theory of strategic group identity that explains how strategic groups emerge in an industry and how they can affect firm behaviors and outcomes in so doing it provides a theoretical basis for the existence of strategic groups we argue that managers cognitively partition their industry environment to reduce uncertainty and to cope with bounded rationality social learning theory and social identification theory are used to describe how cognitive groups coalesce into meaningful substructures and how a group level identity emerges we describe the ways in which macro level factors condition the development of groups and their identities we introduce the notion of a strong identity which characterizes any group sufficiently recognized and attended to by members to affect individual action groups with weak identities are no more than transient agglomerations of firms and do not exist in any meaningful sense these ideas are developed into propositions that describe the conditions under which groups with strong identities are likely to emerge a second set of propositions describes their transformation over time identity strength is linked to both positive and negative outcomes in a final set of propositions we show how strategic groups with strong identities can affect firm performance resolving a longstanding problem which has plagued strategic groups research and conclude by suggesting some approaches for measurement and future research 1997 by john wiley sons ltd

the advantage of tying one s hands ems discipline and central bank credibility abstract it is often argued that the ems is an effective disciplinary device for inflation prone countries in europe since it forces the respective policy makers to pursue more restrictive monetary policies than they would otherwise it is not clear however why these countries should submit themselves to such discipline this paper argues that to answer this question appropriately one must consider that ems membership brings potentially large credibility gains policy makers in inflation prone countries the reason is that not only it attaches an extra penalty to inflation in terms of real appreciation but makes the public aware that the policy maker is faced with such penalty and thus helps to overcome the inefficiency stemming from the public s mistrust of the authorities

macroeconomic volatility and welfare in developing countries an introduction macroeconomic volatility both a source and a reflection of underdevelopment is a fundamental concern for developing countries their high aggregate instability results from a combination of large external shocks volatile macroeconomic policies microeconomic rigidities and weak institutions volatility entails a direct welfare cost for risk averse individuals as well as an indirect one through its adverse effect on income growth and development this article provides a brief overview of the recent literature on macroeconomic volatility in developing countries highlighting its causes consequences and possible remedies it then introduces the contributions of a recent conference on the subject sponsored by the world bank and pompeu fabra university barcelona

cognition capabilities and incentives assessing firm response to the fiber optic revolution this study examines how ceo cognition organizational capabilities and organizational incentives interacted to shape firm strategy during the fiber optic revolution i tested for these factors as

when does corporate venture capital investment create firm value abstract over the past decade billions of dollars have been invested by established companies in entrepreneurial ventures what is often referred to as corporate venture capital yet there is little systematic evidence that corporate venture capital investment creates value to investing firms scholars have suggested that established firms face underlying challenges when investing corporate venture capital namely structural deficiencies inherent in corporate venture capital may inhibit financial gains however firm value may still be created as a result of other benefits from investing primarily providing a window onto novel technology in this paper we propose that corporate venture capital investment will create greater firm value when firms explicitly pursue corporate venture capital to harness novel technology using a panel of cvc investments we present evidence consistent with our proposition the findings are robust to various specifications and remain unchanged even after controlling for unobserved heterogeneity in investing firms our results have important implications for corporate venture capital in particular and technology strategy in general

transparency political polarization and political budget cycles in oecd countries we investigate the effects of fiscal transparency and political polarization on the prevalence of electoral cycles in fiscal balance while some recent political economy literature on electoral cycles identifies such cycles mainly in weak and recent democracies in contrast we show conditioning on a new index of institutional fiscal transparency that electoral cycles in fiscal balance are a feature of many advanced industrialized economies using a sample of 19 oecd countries in the 1990s we identify a persistent pattern of electoral cycles in low er transparency countries while no such cycles can be observed in high er transparency countries furthermore we find in accordance with recent theory that electoral cycles are larger in politically more polarized countries

corporate venture capitalists autonomy obstacles and performance abstract this report presents the results of a formal study of the corporate venture capital community in the united states and is based upon responses to a questionnaire completed by 52 corporate venture capitalists cvcs the central question addressed in this study involves which approach to corporate venture capital is most likely to produce successful results this question was addressed via cluster analysis which segregated the cvc community into two broad classes pilots which are marked by substantial organizational independence and copilots which are highly dependent on corporate management with respect to venture funding and decision authority pilots achieve equal or higher levels of performance and are plagued by far fewer obstacles than their highly dependent counterparts the results suggest the following 1 the corporate venture fund should be established as an independent entity and should have access to a committed separate pool of funds this will enable cvcs to respond aggressively to and manage investment opportunities with minimal corporate interference such an independent entity will defuse justifiable concerns on the part of entrepreneurs related to such interference 2 the fund should be managed by skilled venture professionals who may be drawn from the independent venture community or the small but growing pool of experienced cvcs corporate executives may comprise a part of the management team 3 if the corporate venture fund hopes to attract top quality managers it must be prepared to offer compensation and authority commensurate with their skill level in short corporate venture capitalists should be treated like independent venture capitalists by organizing the fund as an independent entity the political problem associated with establishing compensation levels above those of the corporation can be minimized 4 all cvcs should establish a primary focus on the realization of financial objectives i e return on investment strategic benefit objectives are not necessarily ill advised so long as they do not interfere with sound financial decision making when they do the corporate venture capital process is likely to become less effective for instance a corporate venture fund should only confine itself to investing in a few industries if there are sufficient high grade investment opportunities within those industries to ensure adequate deal flow the venture fund should not be pressured investments that appear exciting from a corporate perspective for technological or marketing reasons but are not financially attractive may well drain resources rather than produce opportunities 5 venture proposals failing on financial criteria might be referred to other parts of the corporation with the purpose of exploring an alternate relationship e g a development contract or joint venture if this is appealing to the corporation a mechanism such as a corporate liaison or reporting system might be established to facilitate the flow of information 6 a corporation should be willing to make a complete commitment of talent and capital if it establishes its own corporate venture fund the corporation should then be willing to accept a limited role if the corporation is unable to accept a limited role with respect to its own fund it may be best for it to participate as an investor in a traditional fund where such limitations will be enforced however this latter approach may significantly dilute or eliminate potential for strategic benefits

venture capital and the birth of the local area networking industry abstract venture capital has played an important role in funding the development of a number of us high technology industries economists and business scholars utilizing models based in traditional economics have studied venture capital from the perspective of investment decision making these models provide significant insights and yet they do not explain the actual operation of venture capital this case study of the creation of lan industry utilizes a synthesis of the dominant design and social constructionist perspectives to create a more nuanced explanation of how the practice of venture capitalists operates to create firms and industries

overconfidence in political behavior this paper studies theoretically and empirically the role of overconfidence in political behavior our model of overconfidence in beliefs predicts that overconfidence leads to ideological extremeness increased voter turnout and stronger partisan identification the model also makes nuanced predictions about the patterns of ideology in society these predictions are tested using unique data that measure the overconfidence and standard political characteristics of a nationwide sample of over 3 000 adults our numerous predictions find strong support in these data in particular we document that overconfidence is a substantively and statistically important predictor of ideological extremeness voter turnout and partisan identification jel c83 d03 d72 d83

ignorance isn t bliss uninformed voters drive budget cycles abstract the paper shows that blissful ignorance does not apply to fiscal policy in countries with uninformed voters politicians attempt to buy votes by substantially increasing government expenditures in election years this generates budget cycles and costly macroeconomic fluctuations unlike much of the earlier literature that found this effect only in low income countries or new democracies we demonstrate that it has occurred in many prosperous countries with an established political system in particular constructing a comprehensive informed voter infovot index and quantifying it for the 1995 2014 period we show that only the top third of oecd countries with well informed voters has not experienced political budget cycles in contrast the bottom third of oecd countries with poorly informed voters has consistently seen a deterioration of the budget balance by 0 7 1 2 of gdp in election years this represents an increase of 18 30 relative to their usual non election budget deficits interestingly for the intermediate group of countries with moderately informed voters for example austria france germany japan luxembourg the u k and the u s election budget cycles occurred during the 1995 2008 period but not since we discuss why their election year deficit hikes of 0 5 0 8 of gdp may have disappeared after the global financial crisis drawing on the rational inattention literature all our results are supported by a large number of robustness checks including the use of a yearly version of the index yinfovot we conclude by offering some policy recommendations that may improve the voters incentives to process fiscal policy information as such they could help to escape an ignorance trap whereby uniformed voters choose politicians whose policies reinforce the voters ignorance

procyclicality of fiscal policy in european union countries abstract using real time data we examine whether fiscal policy has been counter or procyclical in a panel of 27 european union eu member states over the period 2000 2015 we also investigate whether fiscal rules and government efficiency improve the cyclical reaction of fiscal policy our results suggest that even though fiscal plans in eu countries have an acyclical stance budgetary outcomes are procyclical government efficiency and fiscal rules seem to reduce fiscal procyclicality further analysis also reveals that fiscal policy seems to be more procyclical in non euro area countries and in times of economic prosperity

unraveling the process of creative destruction complementary assets and incumbent survival in the typesetter industry when radical technological change transforms an industry established firms sometimes fail drastically and are displaced by new entrants yet other times survive and prosper drawing upon an unusually rich data set that covers the technological and competitive history of the typesetter industry from 1886 to 1990 this paper uses a combination of quantitative and qualitative analysis to unravel this process of creative destruction it argues that the ultimate commercial performance of incumbents vs new entrants is driven by the balance and interaction of three factors investment technical capabilities and appropriability through specialized complementary assets in this industry specialized complementary assets played a crucial role in buffering incumbents from the effects of competence destruction and an analysis that examined investment or technical capabilities in isolation would have led to misleading results this work thus highlights the importance of considering multiple perspectives when examining the competitive implications of technological change 1997 by john wiley sons ltd

technology and economic theory technology and technological change play a central role in economics whether in the theory of resource allocation or in the theory of growth and development yet the nature of technology is largely ignored in economic theory it being considered sufficient to treat technology as a constraint on productive opportunities this short essay delves a little deeper into the nature of technology and the material energy and information transformation processes that it represents a deeper understanding of technology leads to a deeper understanding of the main currents of technological advance and to the reasons why the development of technology and its application are so uneven over time and place copyright the author 2009 published by oxford university press on behalf of the cambridge political economy society all rights reserved oxford university press

on the welfare cost of economic fluctuations in developing countries macroeconomic fluctuations are much stronger in developing countries than in the united states yet while a large literature debates the welfare cost of economic fluctuations in the united states it remains an open question how large that cost is in developing countries using several models we provide such a measure we find that the welfare cost of consumption volatility per se is far from trivial and averages a substantial multiple of the corresponding u s estimate moreover in many poor countries the welfare gain from eliminating volatility may in fact exceed the welfare gain from an additional percentage point of growth forever

opportunistic political cycles test in a young democracy setting this paper tests the theory of opportunistic cycles in a decade old democracy russia finds strong evidence of cycles and provides an explanation for why previous literature often found weaker evidence using regional monthly panel data we find that 1 the budget cycle is sizable and short lived public spending shifts toward direct monetary transfers to voters 2 the magnitude of the cycle decreases with democracy government transparency media freedom voter awareness and over time and 3 preelectoral manipulation increases incumbents chances for reelection the short length of the cycle explains underestimation of its size by previous literature because of low frequency data used in previous studies

implications of rational inattention abstract a constraint that actions can depend on observations only through a communication channel with finite shannon capacity is shown to be able to play a role very similar to that of a signal extraction problem or an adjustment cost in standard control problems the resulting theory looks enough like familiar dynamic rational expectations theories to suggest that it might be useful and practical while the implications for policy are different enough to be interesting

networks as the pipes and prisms of the market1 this article draws an analytical distinction between two types of market uncertainty egocentric which refers to a focal actor s uncertainty regarding the best way to convert a set of inputs to an output desired by a potential exchange partner and altercentric which denotes the uncertainty confronted by a focal actor s exchange partners regarding the quality of the output that the focal actor brings to the market given this distinction the article considers how the value of structural holes and market status vary with these two types of uncertainty the article proposes that the value of structural holes increases with egocentric uncertainty but not with altercentric uncertainty in contrast the value of status increases with altercentric uncertainty but declines with egocentric uncertainty thus actors with networks rich in structural holes should sort into markets or market segments that are high in egocentric uncertainty high status actors should sort into markets that are low in egocentric

attention discrimination theory and field experiments with monitoring information acquisition we link two important ideas attention is scarce and lack of information about an individual drives discrimination in selection decisions our model of allocation of costly attention implies that applicants from negatively stereotyped groups face attention discrimination less attention in highly selective cherry picking markets where more attention helps applicants and more attention in lemon dropping markets where it harms them to test the prediction we integrate tools to monitor information acquisition into correspondence field experiments in both countries we study we find that unfavorable signals minority names or unemployment systematically reduce employers efforts to inspect resumes also consistent with the model in the rental housing market which is much less selective than labor markets we find landlords acquire more information about minority relative to majority applicants we discuss implications of endogenous attention for magnitude and persistence of discrimination in selection decisions returns to human capital and potentially for policy