wealth volume and stock market volatility case of hong kong 1993 2001 this article attempts to answer the question of whether the gain and loss in property market speculations and rate of information flow play a significant role in stock market volatility in hong kong to test for our wealth volume volatility hypothesis two different measures of volatility absolute absolute value of sd from mean with monthly dimension and conditional egarch are used and results are compared in both measures we find evidence of a statistical presence of a wealth effect on stock market volatility particularly in the investment of luxury class of property in hong kong to account for this result we apply the prospect theory house money effect and the newly developed conditional confidence theory although we fail to establish a volume volatility relationship in our estimation we offer additional dimensions to the explanation of our observation

answering the skeptics yes standard volatility models do provide accurate forecasts a voluminous literature has emerged for modeling the temporal dependencies in financial market volatility using arch and stochastic volatility models while most of these studies have documented highly significant in sample parameter estimates and pronounced intertemporal volatility persistence traditional ex post forecast evaluation criteria suggest that the models provide seemingly poor volatility forecasts contrary to this contention we show that volatility models produce strikingly accurate interdaily forecasts for the latent volatility factor that would be of interest in most financial applications new methods for improved ex post interdaily volatility measurements based on high frequency intradaily data are also discussed

the ethical and economic case for sweatshop regulation three types of objections have been raised against sweatshops according to their critics sweatshops are 1 exploitative 2 coercive and 3 harmful to workers in the ethical and economic case against sweatshop labor a critical assessment powell and zwolinski critique all three objections and thereby offer what is arguably the most powerful defense of sweatshops in the philosophical literature to date this article demonstrates that whether or not unregulated sweatshops are exploitative or coercive they are pace powell and zwolinski harmful to workers

minimum wages and compliance the case of trinidad and tobago explores compliance to the national minimum wage in trinidad and tobago potential costs associated with the national minimum wage actual incidence of compliance in terms of employment and wage distribution nature of labor market this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from an this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

conditional heteroscedasticity in time series of stock returns evidence and forecasts this article presents new evidence about the time series behavior of stock prices daily return series exhibit significant levels of second order dependence and they cannot be modeled as linear white noise processes a reasonable return generating process is empirically shown to be a first order autoregressive process with conditionally heteroskedastic innovations in particular generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic garch 1 1 processes fit to data very satisfactorily various out of sample forecasts of monthly return variances are generated and compared statistically forecasts based on the garch model are found to be superior copyright 1989 by the university of chicago

testing the endogenous growth model public expenditure taxation and growth over the long run endogenous growth models such as barro 1990 predict that government expenditure and taxation will have both temporary and permanent effects on growth we test this prediction using panels of annual and period averaged data for oecd countries during 1970 95 isolating long run from short run fiscal effects our results strongly support the endogenous growth model and suggest that long run fiscal effects are not fully captured by period averaging and static panel methods unlike previous investigations our estimates are free from biases associated with incomplete specification of the government budget constraint and do not appear to result from endogeneity of fiscal or investment variables jel classification h30 o40 validation du modele de croissance endogene depenses publiques fiscalite et croissance a long terme des modeles de croissance endogene comme celui de barro 1990 predisent que depenses gouvernementales et fiscalite vont avoir des effets temporaires et permanents sur la croissance on met cette prevision au test a l aide de donnees annuelles et pour certaines moyennes couvrant des sous periodes pour les pays de l ocde 1970 95 dans le but de departager les effets a court et a long terme les resultats valident fortement le modele de croissance endogene et suggerent que les effets fiscaux a long terme ne sont pas pleinement captures par des methodes utilisant des moyennes ou des methodes statiques contrairement aux resultats d enquetes anterieures les resultats proposes ne souffrent pas de distorsions attribuables a une specification incomplete de la contrainte budgetaire du gouvernement et ne semblent pas etre l effet d echo de l endogeneite des variables fiscales et de l investissement

global apparel production and sweatshop labour can raising retail prices finance living wages this paper provides some empirical evidence on issues raised by the global antisweatshop movement we first consider the relationship between wage and employment growth finding no consistent trade off between them we then measure the share of labour costs in the production of garments in the us and mexico we find that the retail price increases necessary to absorb the costs of raising wages substantially are small well within the range of price increases that polls suggest us consumers are willing to pay we close by considering some implications of these results copyright 2004 oxford university press

an analysis of the spillover effects of exchange traded funds this article used the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity autoregressive moving average garch arma and the exponentially generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity autoregressive moving average egarch arma models to study the impact of the spillover and the leverage effects on returns and volatilities of stock index and exchange trade fund etf for developed and emerging markets previous unexpected returns for developed and emerging markets which have an opposite influence pattern on etfs returns were identified the spillover effects from returns are excellent for hong kong followed by singapore meanwhile taiwan s stock index return was recorded to have a strong negative impact on etf return notably this article shows that the spillover effects on stock index and etf volatilities existed with bilateral influences despite a strong positive asymmetric volatility effect in korea s etf market the leverage effect appears to play important roles in the explana

sweatshops economic analysis and exploitation as unfairness the economic and moral defense of sweatshops given by powell and zwolinski j bus ethics 107 449 472 2012 has been criticized in two recent papers coakley and kates j bus ethics 117 553 558 2013 focus on putative weaknesses in the logic of powell s and zwolinski s argument preiss bus ethics quart 24 1 55 82 2014 argues that even granting the validity of their economic argument powell s and zwolinski s defense is without force when viewed from a kantian republican viewpoint we are concerned that sweatshop critics have misinterpreted the economic literature and overstated the conclusions that follow from their ethical premises we show that the best understanding of the current economic literature supports powell s and zwolinski s conclusions about the negative effects of sweatshop wage regulation and that it is unreasonable to reject economic analysis in moral argument against sweatshops even from a kantian perspective additionally we defend the theory of exploitation as unfairness given by wertheimer exploitation 1996 and show how economic analysis can be applied to that theory to identify cases of sweatshop exploitation

exploiting injustice in mutually beneficial market exchange the case of sweatshop labor mutually beneficial exchanges in markets can be exploitative because one party takes advantage of an underlying injustice for instance employers of sweatshop workers are often accused of exploiting the desperate conditions of their employees although the latter accept the terms of their employment voluntarily a weakness of this account of exploitation is its tendency for over inclusiveness certainly given the prevalence of global and domestic socioeconomic inequalities not all exchanges that take place against background injustices should be considered exploitative this paper offers a framework to identify exploitation in mutually beneficial exchange focusing on the case of sweatshop labor it argues that an employer can be viewed as taking unfair advantage of an underlying injustice if and only if the employer s surplus from the exchange in the unjust state of affairs exceeds the surplus it could maximally obtain in a just state of affairs the paper illustrates the applicability of this framework using three different conceptions of justice and argues that it is superior to microlevel accounts of exploitation that regard background justice as irrelevant the paper concludes by describing some normative implications that follow from judging an exchange exploitative

the impact of minimum wages in mexico and colombia there are diverging views about how minimum wages affect labor markets in developing countries advocates of minimum wages hold that they redistribute resources in a welfare enhancing way and can thus reduce poverty improve productivity and foster growth opponents on the other hand contend that minimum wage interventions result in a misallocation of labor and lead to depressed wages in the very sectors the rural and informal urban sectors where most of the poor are found with the effect of wasting resources and reducing the growth rate data from colombia and mexico for the 1980s provide an opportunity to evaluate the impact of minimum wages in mexico in the 1980s the minimum wage fell in real terms roughly 45 percent by 1990 mexico s minimum wage was about 13 percent of the average unskilled manufacturing wage during the same period the minimum wage in colombia increased at nearly the same rate reaching roughly 53 percent of the average unskilled wage the author charts how the mandated minimum wage affected the demand for skilled and unskilled labor in both countries during that decade findings are as follows in mexico minimum wages have had virtually no effect on wages or employment in the formal sector the main reason the minimum wage is not an effective wage for most firms or workers in the informal sector in turn there is considerable noncompliance with the mandated minimum wage especially among part time and female workers as a result significant numbers of workers are paid at or below minimum wages in colombia minimum wages have a much stronger impact on wages judging from their proximity to the average wage and both cross section and time series estimates the estimates imply that the elasticity of low paid unskilled employment with respect to minimum wages is in the range of 2 to 12 percent

low wage manufacturing and global commodity chains a model in the unequal exchange tradition the institutional setting of subcontracted manufacturing has a profound impact on how the benefits of trade are distributed this paper develops a model that combines insights from unequal exchange theorists and global commodity chain analysis to clarify the distributive dynamics of production networks in which subcontracting and branding are defining features in this framework the ability of productivity growth to increase income from exports is constrained and depends on how the benefits of productivity improvements are captured as lower consumer prices or higher rents for brand name multinationals increasing consumption in affluent consumer markets raises export earnings however developing countries acting alone are constrained in their ability to affect the demand side of global commodity chains instead supply side policies to support industrial upgrading represent a more viable option for raising incomes copyright 2006 oxford university press

multinationals and anti sweatshop activism during the 1990s anti sweatshop activists campaigned to improve conditions for workers in developing countries this paper analyzes the impact of antisweatshop campaigns in indonesia on wages and employment identification is based on comparing the wage growth of workers in foreign owned and exporting firms in targeted regions or sectors before and after the initiation of antisweatshop campaigns we find the campaigns led to large real wage increases for targeted enterprises there were some costs in terms of reduced investment falling profits and increased probability of closure for smaller plants but we fail to find significant effects on employment jel f23 j31 j81 l67 o14 o15

financial integration and the asean 5 equity markets the existence of long run relationships among the asean 5 equity markets is empirically investigated this study utilized weekly data spanning january 1988 to august 1999 the results of granger noncausality test due to toda and yamamoto journal of econometrics 66 225 50 1995 reveal that the singapore equity market was not affected by other markets except by the philippines in the long run this result shows that there exist opportunities for beneficial international portfolio diversification within the context of the asean 5 equity markets

higher wages for sustainable development employment and carbon effects of paying a living wage in global apparel supply chains abstract in this paper we explore how paying a living wage in global supply chains might affect employment and carbon emissions sustainable development goals 8 and 13 previous work has advocated using wage increases for poorer workers to increase prices for wealthier consumers thereby reducing consumption and associated environmental damage however the likely effects of such an approach remain unclear using an input output framework extended with income and demand elasticities we estimate the employment and carbon effects of paying a living wage to brazilian russian indian and chinese bric workers in the western european clothing supply chain we find negligible effects on carbon emissions but a substantial increase in bric employment under 3 scenarios of consumer behaviour changes in western european consumption lead to small decreases in global carbon emissions and bric employment however the increase in bric wages increases demand in bric this increased demand increases production which largely cancels out the carbon savings and generates net increases in bric employment we conclude by arguing that paying higher wages in global supply chains represents a good but not sufficient step toward achieving the sustainable development goals

gender biased redistribution and intra household distribution abstract this paper examines the implications of income redistribution from men to women for the welfare of married women and children we develop a cournot model of a two person household where agents provide market labor and allocate their spending between a private consumption good and goods for children we show that under plausible restrictions on individual preferences small redistributions to married women reduce their welfare this happens because the income redistribution induces men to reduce their own spending on children by more than the amount redistributed a relative increase in women s independent earnings may however improve children s welfare

intraday volatility in the stock index and stock index futures markets we examine the intraday relationship between returns and returns volatility in the stock index and stock index futures markets our results indicate a strong intermarket dependence in the volatility of the cash and futures returns price innovations that originate in either the stock or futures markets can predict the future volatility in the other market we show that this relationship persists even during periods in which the dependence in the returns themselves appears to weaken the findings are robust to controlling for potential market frictions such as asynchronous trading in the stock index our results have implications for understanding the pattern of information flows between the two markets article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

volatility spillovers for spot futures and etf prices in agriculture and energy abstract the agricultural and energy industries are closely related both biologically and financially the paper discusses the relationship and the interactions on price and volatility and on the covolatility spillover effects for these two industries the interaction and covolatility spillovers or the delayed effect of a returns shock in one asset on the subsequent volatility or covolatility in another asset between the energy and agricultural industries is the primary emphasis of the paper although there has already been significant research on biofuel and biofuel related crops only a few published papers have been concerned with volatility spillovers it must be emphasized that there have been numerous technical errors in the theoretical and empirical research which need to be addressed the paper considers futures prices as a widely used hedging instrument and also considers an interesting new hedging instrument etf which is regarded as index futures when investors manage their portfolios in the empirical analysis multivariate conditional volatility diagonal bekk models are estimated for comparing patterns of covolatility spillovers the paper provides a new way of analyzing and describing the patterns of covolatility spillovers which should be useful for the future empirical analysis of estimating and testing covolatility spillover effects

agricultural planning pricing policy and co operatives in vietnam abstract in the competition between national government and local co operatives a central contradiction in socialist rural development the price system market control and terms of trade are crucially related to the relative power and capacity of the central government to control ratios of accumulation and consumption in vietnam there is a dynamic interaction between government and agricultural producers over pricing policy and paradoxically it is the co operative primarily viewed by the state as a means of providing cheap food which has strengthened the collective bargaining position of agricultural producers the government has had to introduce material incentives to expand agricultural production beyond subsistence levels and bow to pressure to alter the previous accumulation consumption ratios in favour of consumption

stock returns and volatility an empirical study of the uk stock market abstract attempts to quantify the relationship between stock returns and volatility have produced conflicting conclusions in recent u s studies our paper examines this issue in the u k context for the first time using daily weekly fortnightly and monthly returns on the financial times all share index from january 1965 to december 1989 volatility estimates are obtained from monthly sample variances and arch models expected returns are shown to have had a positive though not statistically significant relationship with expected volatility the relationship between the unexpected components of the returns and volatility series is less clear we find evidence for a negative relationship but only when volatility expectations are represented by standard deviations

the problem of balance in the peripheral socialist economy a conceptual note abstract the structure of the peripheral socialist economy is fundamentally distinct from the classical socialist economy upon which the planning literature has been based essentially this derives from the fact that the constraint on growth is foreign exchange and not the supply of labour or wage goods as such in consequence the possibilities for accumulation depend on international rent and depression of popular consumption does not in fact contribute much to the rate of growth three different sectors of the peripheral socialist economy can be identified and related to problems of accumulation and planning

declining public pensions in an era of demographic ageing will private provision fill the gap abstract demographic crisis and imprudent commitments have induced a crisis in public pension programmes in oecd countries will present and prospective cutbacks lead to greater private saving either in the form of private pension provision or in other forms of saving the paper surveys existing evidence and provides new results on three questions do individuals substitute private for public provision of savings when public pension programmes are cut back voluntarily do individuals respond to incentives to join sponsored or tax subsidised arrangements if encouraged by the government and if individuals are prepared to make such arrangements and where saving is voluntary do they save enough to replace previous prospective public pension flows

markets markets everywhere understanding the cuban anomaly abstract cuba has made exceptionally little use of markets compared with other centrally planned economies only in the 1970s did the cubans begin to experiment with a state controlled parallel market and in 1980 with a free peasant market six years into the experiment this market was closed as it produced tensions common to other socialist experiences with market mechanisms high prices growing income and consumption inequality and the illegal redirection of resources from the planned to market sphere the free market was replaced with a more limited market mechanism an expanded parallel market in both agricultural procurement and food distribution considered more compatible with the cuban commitment to egalitarianism

sweatshop regulation tradeoffs and welfare judgements the standard economic and ethical case in defense of sweatshops employs the standard of the welfare of their workers and potential workers to argue that sweatshop regulations harm the very people they intend to help scholars have recently contended that once the benefits and costs are balanced regulations do in fact raise worker welfare this paper describes the short and long run tradeoffs associated with sweatshop regulation and then examines how reasonable constructions of measures of worker welfare would evaluate these tradeoffs finding that the standard economic and ethical case against sweatshop regulations is well supported

labour leverage in global value chains the role of interdependencies and multi level dynamics the global segmentation of production and distribution has resulted in highly complex global value chains gvcs where vertical and horizontal dynamics are equally important in determining working conditions and providing points of leverage for labour borrowing notions of multi level governance we propose an analytical framework for describing and explaining success and failure of labour agency when attempting to improve working conditions along gvcs our starting point is that the high complexity of gvcs and the absence of a global overarching authority have been balanced by the emergence of governance mechanisms of different forms and at different levels an assessment of these mechanisms which emphasize process over institutions reveals how different types of interactions and interdependencies along gvcs impact on labour s use of power we argue that in order to fully situate labour agency within governance debates any future research agenda needs to be driven by micro level bottom up approaches

heteroskedasticity in stock return data volume versus garch effects this paper provides empirical support for the notion that autoregressive conditional heterqskedasticity arch in daily stock return data reflects time dependence in the process generating information flow to the market daily trading volume used as a proxy for information arrival time is shown to have significant explanatory power regarding the variance of daily returns which is an implication of the assumption that daily returns are subordinated to intraday equilibrium returns furthermore arch effects tend to disappear when volume is included in the variance equation the autoregressive conditiqnal heteroskedasticity arch process of engle 1982 has been shown to provide a good fit for many financial return time series 1 arch imposes an autoregressive structure on conditional variance allqwing volatility shocks to persist over time this persistence captures the propensity of returns of like magnitude to clu ter in time and can explain the well documented nonnormality and nonstability of empirical asset return distributions see especially fama 1965 an appealing explanation for the presence of arch is based upon the hypothesis that daily returns are generated by a maiture of distributions in which the rate of daily information arrival is the stochastic mixing variable as suggested by diebold 1986 gallant hsieh and tauchen 1988 and stock 1987 1988 arch might capture the time series properties e g serial correlation of this mixing variable hqwever this linkage has not been broadly documented with the datia the objective of this study is to examine the validity of this explanation for daily stock returns the empirical strategy exploits the implication of the mixture model that the variance of daily price increments is heteroskedastic specifically positively related to the rate of daily information arrival using daily trading volume as a proxy for the mixing variable we show that for a sample of 20 common stocks arch effects vanish when volume is included as an explanatory variable in the conditional variance equation

stock returns and volatility most asset pricing models postulate a positive relationship between a stock portfolio s expected returns and risk which is often modeled by the variance of the asset price this paper uses garch in mean models to examine the relationship between mean returns on a stock portfolio and its conditional variance or standard deviation after estimating a variety of models from daily and monthly portfolio return data we conclude that any relationship between mean returns and own variance or standard deviation is weak the results suggest that investors consider some other risk measure to be more important than the variance of portfolio returns

volatility spillovers and connectedness among credit default swap sector indexes this article studies volatility spill over effects and market connectedness using daily data of credit default swap spreads for u s companies over a period from 2007 to 2012 we quantify volatilit