women s discrimination in developing countries a new data set for better policies summary based on a new data set this paper develops two innovative indicators to measure gender inequalities in developing countries the indicators measure different aspects of constraints imposed on women by social institutions that is laws norms traditions and codes of conduct that exist in societies for centuries the paper finds that social institutions are the most important single factor determining women s participation in economic activities outside the household

global feminization through flexible labor abstract the emphasis on structural adjustment and labor flexibility in both developing and industrialized economies is rapidly altering the nature of employment women are being substituted for men and many forms of work are being converted into the kinds of jobs traditionally geared to women international data on recent trends in female economic activity reveal that new types of labor data are needed to highlight the mechanisms of control over workers and the actual economic forms of vulnerability to which women are exposed the paper concludes by posing questions that challenge the traditional concerns of donors and policy makers in many developing countries

the peter principle a theory of decline some have observed that individuals perform worse after being promoted the peter principle which states that people are promoted to their level of incompetence suggests that something is fundamentally misaligned in the promotion process this view is unnecessary and inconsistent with the data below it is argued that ability appears lower after promotion purely as a statistical matter being promoted is evidence that a standard has been met regression to the mean implies that future ability will be lower on average firms optimally account for the regression bias in making promotion decisions but the effect is never eliminated rather than evidence of a mistake the peter principle is a necessary consequence of any promotion rule furthermore firms that take it into account appropriately adopt an optimal strategy usually firms inflate the promotion criterion to offset the peter principle effect and the more important the transitory component is relative to total variation in ability the larger

the gender gap fertility and growth changes in fertility have long been recognized as important correlates of economic growth with the relationship between the level of fertility and the level of income per capita being one of the strongest observable correlations in cross country data this paper examines the linkages between fertility and growth theory the structure of the model is presented in sections on production couples decision making system dynamics and steady state equilibria the first component of the model is that increases in capital per worker raise womens relative wages since capital is more complementary to womens labor input than to mens the second component is that increasing womens relative wages reduces fertility by raising the cost of children more than household income finally lower fertility raises the level of capital per worker a positive feedback loop generates demographic transition a rapid decline in fertility accompanied by accelerated output growth

two sided uncertainty and up or out contracts a bilateral moral hazard problem provides a rationale for up or out employment contracts the employer sets a wage higher than opportunity cost to induce the worker to invest in firm specific capital if the individual does not make the grade it is in the firm s interest ex post to fire him had the initial arrangement not included provisions for firing individuals the firm would underreport the value of the employee wrecking the incentive scheme the basic model permits both firm and worker to be risk neutral therefore it admits a straightforward multiperiod extension which we also investigate

exchange rate uncertainty and international portfolio flows a multivariate garch in mean approach abstract this paper examines the impact of exchange rate uncertainty on different components of net portfolio flows namely net equity and net bond flows as well as their dynamic linkages specifically a bivariate var garch bekk in mean model is estimated using bilateral monthly data for the us vis a vis australia canada the euro area japan sweden and the uk over the period 1988 01 2011 12 the results indicate that the effect of exchange rate uncertainty on net equity flows is negative in the euro area the uk and sweden and positive in australia the impact on net bond flows is also negative in all countries except canada where it is positive under the assumption of risk aversion the findings suggest that exchange rate uncertainty induces a home bias and causes investors to reduce their financial activities to maximise returns and minimise exposure to uncertainty this effect being stronger in the uk the euro area and sweden compared to canada australia and japan overall the results indicate that exchange rate or credit controls on these flows can be used as a policy tool in countries with strong uncertainty effects to pursue economic and financial stability

the costs of missing the millennium development goal on gender equity abstract at the millennium summit the world community pledged to promote gender equality and chose as a specific target the achievement of gender equity in primary and secondary education by the year 2005 in every country of the world based on the findings from a growing empirical literature that suggests that gender equity in education promotes economic growth reduced fertility child mortality and undernutrition we estimate what the costs in terms of growth and forgone fertility mortality and undernutrition reduction will be for the 45 countries that are on current projections unlikely to meet the target our estimates suggest that by 2005 the countries that are off track are likely to suffer 0 1 0 3 percentage points lower per capita growth rates as a result will have 0 1 0 4 more children per woman and by 2015 an average of 15 per 1 000 higher rates of under five mortality and 2 5 percentage points higher prevalence of underweight children under five sensitivity analyses suggest that the results are quite robust to using different specifications and approaches to estimating these losses

the dispersion of employees wage increases and firm performance previous studies examining intra firm wage dispersion and firm performance have focused on wage levels the authors of this study argue that for purposes of comparing wage dispersion s positive inc

human capital family planning and their effects on population growth statistical evidence at the household level suggests that fertility and child mortality are related to factors specified by economic models of family resource allocation and behavior several of these factors such as women s education and family planning appear to decrease both fertility and child mortality leaving in doubt what net effects these human capital and social welfare programs have had on the recent slowing of world population growth the specific factors considered here include family planning programs human capital endowments of women and men natural resource wealth other economic structural determinants of the costs and benefits of children and the availability of nutritional inputs cross sectional relationships are reported and changes within countries are analyzed with fixed effect methods using data for 68 lowincome countries for the last two decades

undp s gender related indices a critical review abstract this paper critically reviews the two gender related indices proposed by undp in the 1995 human development report the gender related development index gdi and the gender empowerment measure gem while supporting the need to develop indicators that reliably track women s empowerment gem as well as the impact of gender inequality on overall human development gdi we argue that the particular ways in which these indices were constructed and the assumptions made to overcome data gaps severely limit their usefulness and result in very misleading international comparisons wherever appropriate we suggest remedies for some of the shortcomings identified

estimating the correlation structure of international share prices recently the case for international portfolio diversification has been convincingly argued in the framework of mean variance portfolio analysis by a number of researchers however virtually no empirical documentation exists concerning the best method for estimating the correlation structure of international share prices in this paper 12 models for estimating the international correlation matrix are presented and empirically tested relative to full historical extrapolation the major evaluation criteria are the mean squared error and stochastic dominance based on the frequency distribution of the squared forecast errors the results indicate that the national mean model strictly dominates all the others in terms of forecasting accuracy in the last fifteen years or so a number of researchers have convincingly argued the case for international portfolio diversification as opposed to purely domestic diversification in the framework of mean variance portfolio analysis see e g grubel 4 levy and sarnat 8 solnik 12 mcdonald 10 lessard 6 and subrahmanyam 15 1 in spite of the emerging consensus in the academic and investment communities that investors can benefit from international diversification in terms of a more efficient risk return tradeoff virtually no empirical documentation exists concerning the best method for estimating the correlation structure of international share prices since estimating this correlation structure is a necessary precondition for being able to apply modern portfolio theory to international investments empirical examination is of major importance moreover only through empirical examination of the correlation structure will the effort to devise a simple algorithm that can be used to solve for the optimal international portfolio be facilitated in order to trace out the set of ex ante efficient international porffolios using the tenets of modern portfolio theory the investor must obtain accurate estimates of the expected return and the variance of return for each domestic and foreign security and he must also obtain accurate estimates of the correlation coefficients of the returns between each pair of securities stated in terms of his numeraire

monetary conditions and international investing we examine the relationship between monetary conditions and global stock returns previous studies established that u s stock returns during expansive u s monetary periods are significantly higher than returns during restrictive periods we found that this pattern prevails in non u s markets furthermore the pattern exists relative to both local and u s monetary conditions by examining several investment strategies we show that investors could have improved portfolio performance in the period studied by using both u s and local monetary conditions to guide their portfolio allocations using monetary conditions to determine portfolio composition would have been consistently beneficial throughout the past 30 years

prizes and productivity how winning the fields medal affects scientific output knowledge generation is key to economic growth and scientific prizes are designed to encourage it but how does winning a prestigious prize affect future output we compare the productivity of fields medal recipients winners of the top mathematics prize to that of similarly brilliant contenders the two groups have similar publication rates until the award year after which the winners productivity declines the medalists begin to play the field studying unfamiliar topics at the expense of writing papers it appears that tournaments can have large postprize effects on the effort allocation of knowledge producers

job allocation rules and sorting efficiency experimental outcomes in a peter principle environment an important issue in personnel economics is the design of efficient job allocation rules firms often use promotions both to sort workers across jobs and to provide them with incentives however the peter principle states that employees output tends to fall after a promotion lazear 2004 suggests that self selection may improve job allocation efficiency while preserving incentive effects we reproduce this peter principle in the laboratory and compare the efficiency of a promotion standard with subjects self selecting their task we find no evidence of effort distortion as predicted by theory furthermore we find that when the peter principle is not severe promotion rules often dominate self selection efficiency of task assignment results are consistent with imperfect appraisal of transitory ability and a lack of strategic behavior

international diversification of investment portfolios u s and japanese perspectives in this paper we analyze the gains from international diversification of investment portfolios from the japanese as well as the u s perspectives the major findings of this paper include first the potential gains from international as opposed to purely domestic diversification are much greater for u s investors than for japanese investors for u s investors the gains accrue not so much in terms of lower risk as in terms of higher return and the opposite holds for japanese investors second using various ex ante international investment strategies designed to control parameter uncertainty u s investors can realize substantial gains from international diversification in out of sample periods japanese investors however can gain relatively little third hedging exchange risk generally allows the u s but not japanese investors to benefit more from international diversification for u s investors the international bond diversification with exchange risk hedging offers a superior risk return trade off than the international stock diversification with or without hedging

globalisation women s economic rights and forced labour economy s penetration by foreign direct investment by and large has no sta tistically significant impact globalisation might weaken the general bargaining position of labour such that outcome related la bour standards might suffer however being more open toward trade is likely to promote rather than hinder the realisation of t wo labour rights considered as core or fundamental by the international labour organisation namely the elimination of economic discrimination and of forced labour

marginalization revisited women s market work and pay and economic development abstract a substantial literature argues that women have been left out of economic development but evidence from labor force surveys in middle income developing countries suggests otherwise women s participation rates in the market labor force have been increasing women have shifted into white collar occupations and certain previously male dominated occupations have become female dominated clerical work in asia for example women s relative pay has risen somewhat faster in asia and latin america than occurred during industrialization in the united states although inequalities remain there is no evidence that women on average are being marginalized

mean reversion in investment decisions the case of hollywood one explanation for the comparatively lower quality of movie sequels is selection bias known in personnel economics as the peter principle only abnormally successful movies are selected for a sequel another explanation is a deterministic depreciation in quality due to the decline in the novelty of the sequel s characters and storyline both explanations predict that relative to the original the sequel s performance will revert towards the mean we develop a structural model to decompose the two explanations and estimate its parameters using detailed data on 306 franchise films and 2 823 non franchise films between 1995 and 2014 parameter estimates provide evidence of selection bias for action adventure and horror movies and evidence of a deterministic decline in quality for comedies

rational overoptimism and other biases rational agents with differing priors tend to be overoptimistic about their chances of success in particular an agent who tries to choose the action that is most likely to succeed is more likely to choose an action of which he overestimated rather than underestimated the likelihood of success after studying the comparative statics of this mechanism i show that it also causes agents to attribute failure to exogenous factors but success to their own choice of action to disproportionately believe that they will outperform others to overestimate the precision of their estimates and to overestimate their control over the outcome

bayes stein estimation for portfolio analysis in portfolio analysis uncertainty about parameter values leads to suboptimal portfolio choices the resulting loss in the investor s utility is a function of the particular estimator chosen for expected returns so this is a problem of simultaneous estimation of normal means under a well specified loss function in this situation as stein has shown the clas sical sample mean is inadmissible this paper presents a simple empirical bayes estimator that should outperform the sample mean in the context of a portfolio simulation analysis shows that these bayes stein estimators provide significant gains in portfolio selection problems

conditional hedging and portfolio performance simple conditional currency hedging rules often increase risk adjusted portfolio returns and are thus of interest to investors several researchers have reported successful application of a forward hedge rule fhr in which one hedges whenever the foreign currency trades at a forward premium an alternative strategy a real interest rate hedge rule rir is based on hedging when the domestic real interest rate exceeds the foreign rate as an extension we propose a combination of these rules a real forward hedge rule rfhr we evaluate the performance of the rules for various currency stock and bond portfolios from the developed countries in tests of risk adjusted returns for 1976 1997 the rfhr significantly outperformed standard benchmarks and often beat the fhr and the rir moreover results of a simple dominance test for rolling 5 and 10 year periods suggest that the rfhr consistently improves portfolio performance for a u s investor

the contribution of female health to economic development we analyze the economic consequences for less developed countries of investing in female health we do this through developing and calibrating a novel micro founded dynamic general equilibrium model in which parents trade off the number of children against investments in their education and in which we allow for health related gender differences in productivity we show that better female health speeds up the demographic transition and thereby the take off toward sustained economic growth by contrast male health improvements delay the transition and take off because ceteris paribus they raise fertility investing in female health is therefore a potent lever for promoting development

a theory of wage and promotion dynamics inside firms we show that a framework that integrates job assignment human capital acquisition and learning captures several empirical findings concerning wage and promotion dynamics inside firms including the following first real wage decreases are not rare but demotions are second wage increases are serially correlated third promotions are associated with large wage increases fourth wage increases at promotion are small relative to the difference between average wages across levels of the job ladder fifth workers who receive large wage increases early in their stay at one level of the job ladder are promoted quickly to the next

the social outcomes of education and feedbacks on growth in africa most of the effects of education included in the complete model presented here are shown to be consistent with those found in the mainstream of the research on each outcome using microeconomic data this however is a first effort to estimate net education effects more comprehensively beyond just growth and health effects on other key measures of development in africa and also a new view of indirect feedbacks on economic growth and of externalities after developing the conceptual framework the regression estimates are presented together with a discussion of the net direct and indirect effects of education on each outcome these are shown to improve infant mortality increase longevity strengthen civic institutions and democratisation increase political stability and increase investment in physical capital which in turn have positive delayed feedback effects on the economic growth process the effects also lower fertility rates and population growth rates but the latter occurs only after long dela

low schooling for girls slower growth for all cross country evidence on the effect of gender inequality in education on economic development using cross country and panel regressions this article investigates how gender inequality in education affects long term economic growth such inequality is found to have an effect on economic growth that is robust to changes in specifications and controls for potential endogeneities the results suggest that gender inequality in education directly affects economic growth by lowering the average level of human capital in addition growth is indirectly affected through the impact of gender inequality on investment and population growth some 0 4 0 9 percentage points of differences in annual per capita growth rates between east asia and sub saharan africa south asia and the middle east can be accounted for by differences in gender gaps in education between these regions

gender inequality and economic growth a cross country analysis abstract this paper investigates empirically the determinants of economic growth for a set of semi industrialized export oriented economies in which women provide the bulk of labor in the export sector the primary hypothesis tested is that gender inequality which contributes to women s relatively lower wages was a stimulus to growth via the effect on exports during 1975 95 empirical analysis shows that gdp growth is positively related to gender wage inequality in contrast to recent work which suggests that income inequality slows growth evidence also indicates that part of the impact of gender wage inequality on growth is transmitted through its positive effect on investment as a share of gdp

performance of portfolios optimized with estimation error we explain the poor out of sample performance of mean variance optimized portfolios developing theoretical bias adjustments for estimation risk by asymptotically expanding future returns of portfolios formed with estimated weights we provide closed form non bayesian adjustments of classical estimates of portfolio mean and standard deviation the adjustments significantly reduce bias in international equity portfolios increase economic gains and are robust to sample size and to nonnormality dominant terms grow linearly with the number of assets and decline inversely with the number of past time periods under suitable conditions sharpe ratio maximizing tangency portfolios become more diversified using these approximation methods it may be possible to assess before investing the effect of statistical estimation error on portfolio performance

team production benefits from a permanent fear of exclusion one acclaimed role of managers is to monitor workers in team production processes and discipline them through the threat of terminating them from the team alchian and demsetz 1972 we extend a standard weakest link experiment with a manager that can decide to replace some of her team members at a cost the amount of contractual commitment termination possibilities and the precision of the manager s monitoring information serve as treatment variables our results show that the fear of exclusion has a profound effect on team performance even if workers are imperfectly monitored the most flexible contract induces the highest output while the one with no firing possibilities leads to the lowest production however once the fear is eliminated for some workers because permanent workers cannot be fired after a probation phase effort levels steadily decrease

wealthier is healthier we estimate the effect of income on health using cross country timeseries data on health infant and child mortality and life expectancy and income per capita we use instrumental variables estimates using exogenous determinants of income growth to identify the pure income effect on health isolated from reverse causation or incidental association the long run income elasticity of infant and child mortality in developing countries lies between 0 2 and 0 4 using these estimates we calculate that over a half a million child deaths in the developing world in 1990 alone can be attributed to the poor economic performance in the 1980s

optimal hedging of uncertain and long term foreign exchange exposure abstract this paper employs stochastic dynamic programming to analyze two hedging problems which arise frequently especially in international finance one is the hedging of an uncertain exposure when the arrival of new information is anticipated it is shown that a risk averse agent will hedge a fraction of his maximum potential exposure to reduce risk the second problem concerns hedging an exposure which extends beyond the delivery date of the available forward contract the solution yields a rule by which successive contracts can be linked to form an optimal hedging strategy a short empirical study illustrates this rule

the benefits from international diversification for nordic investors abstract in this paper we investigate the magnitude of the benefits from international diversification from the nordic point of view special attention is paid to whether potentially increased co movement of stock markets together with more volatile nordic currencies have resulted in decreased benefits from international diversification towards the end of the 1980s moreover the paper presents evidence on the benefits from international diversification for a currency which has recently started its free float the finnish markka fim we find significant increases in stock market co movement both unhedged ex ante strategies as well as strategies hedged for exchange rate risk are investigated revealing substantial benefits from international diversification for the nordic countries however we obtain mixed results concerning the question of the optimality of hedging

the provision of incentives in firms i ncentives are the essence of economics despite many wide ranging claims about their supposed importance there has been little empirical assessment of incentive provision for workers the purpose of this paper is to critically overview existing work on the provision of incentives since the interests of workers and their employers are not always aligned a large theoretical literature has emphasized how firms design compensation contracts to induce employees to operate in the firm s interest this literature has reached into many areas of compensation and has pointed to a multitude of different mechanisms that can be used to induce workers to act in the interests of their employers these include piece rates options discretionary bonuses promotions profit sharing efficiency wages deferred compensation and so on my objective here is to evaluate this literature in the light of a growing empirical literature on compensation where possible i will address the literature from two perspectives first an underlying assumption of this literature is that individuals respond to contracts that reward performance accordingly i consider whether agents behave in this way and whether these responses are always in the firm s interest second i address whether firms write contracts with these responses in mind in other words do contracts look like the predictions of the theory incentives are provided to workers

exchange rate uncertainty forward contracts and international portfolio selection in this paper ex ante efficient portfolio selection strategies are developed to realize potential gains from international diversification under flexible exchange rates it is shown that exchange rate uncertainty is a largely nondiversiflable factor adversely affecting the performance of international portfolios therefore it is essential to effectively control exchange rate volatility for that purpose two methods of exchange risk reduction are simultaneously employed multicurrency diversification and hedging via forward exchange contracts the empirical findings show that international portfolio selection strategies designed to control both estimation and exchange risks almost consistently outperform the u s domestic portfolio in out of sample periods since grubel 11 applied modern portfolio theory mpt to international investment various authors such as levy and sarnat 17 solnik 20 and lessard 16 have examined the gains from international diversification of investment portfolios for the purpose of establishing the gains from international diversification these studies constructed international portfolios using historical risk and return data from a period of fixed or relatively stable exchange rates and showed that internationally diversified portfolios dominated purely domestic portfolios in terms of mean variance efficiency from the standpoint of today s investors however the previous studies fail to offer operational guidance for international diversification for two important reasons first it is now questionable whether the past findings are still relevant under the current flexible exchange rate regime second by being ex post in nature the past studies ignored the issue of estimation risk or parameter uncertainty and therefore may have overstated the realizable portion of the potential gains from international diversification fluctuating exchange rates are likely to mitigate the potential gains from international diversification by making investment in foreign securities more risky as will be shown later a fluctuating exchange rate contributes to the risk of foreign investment not only through its own variance but also through its positive covariances with the local stock market returns during our sample period of 1980 through 1985 for example exchange rate volatility is found to account for about fifty percent of the volatility of dollar returns from investment in the stock markets of such major countries as germany japan and the u k furthermore the exchange rate changes vis a vis the u s dollar are found to be

where has all the education gone cross national data show no association between increases in human capital attributable to the rising educational attainment of the labor force and the rate of growth of output per worker this implies that the association of educational capital growth with conventional measures of total factor production is large strongly statistically significant and negative these are on average results derived from imposing a constant coefficient however the development impact of education varied widely across countries and has fallen short of expectations for three possible reasons first the institutional governance environment could have been sufficiently perverse that the accumulation of educational capital lowered economic growth second marginal returns to education could have fallen rapidly as the supply of educated labor expanded while demand remained stagnant third educational quality could have been so low that years of schooling created no human capital the extent and mix of these three phenomena vary from country to country in explaining the actual economic impact of education or the lack thereof

women and labor market changes in the global economy growth helps inequalities hurt and public policy matters this report examines the level and changes in female and male participation rates employment segregation and female wages relative to male wages across the world economy it funds sufficient evidence to support the view that labor markets in developing countries are transformed relatively quickly in the sense that gender differentials in employment and pay are narrowing much faster than they did in industrialized countries however the report evaluates the inefficiencies arising from persisting gender differentials in the labor market and finds them to be potentially significant the estimates also indicate that the resulting deadweight losses are borne primarily by women while men gain mainly in relative terms there are no real winners from discrimination the paper concludes that growth benefits women at large inequalities can have significantly adverse effects on welfare and market based development alone can be a weak instrument doe reducing inequality between the sexes to break the vicious cycle of women s low initial human capital endowments and inferior labor market outcomes compared to men s the report proposes greater access to education and training for girls and women enforceable equal pay and equal employment opportunities legislation a taxation and benefits structure that treats reproduction as an economic activity and women as equal partners within households and a better accounting of women s work to include invisible production

decomposing the gender gap in cognitive skills in a poor rural economy girls lag markedly behind boys in education in many developing countries which may slow economic growth and increase inequity this paper uses indicators of the output of the education production process cognitive skills to characterize and to investigate the determinants of the large educational gender gap in rural pakistan local school availability accounts for about a third of the total cognitive achievement gender gap and over two fifths of that in numeracy which implies that policies that increased local school availability for girls could reduce substantially the gender gaps in cognitive skills to further reduce these gender gaps will require policies that focus on the demand side of the market where our results suggest the response to modest changes in incentives may be high

the internal economics of the firm evidence from personnel data we analyze twenty years of personnel data from one firm the hierarchical structure is quite simple and stable career movements suggest that the employee s rate of learning and the firm s learning about ability are important there are promotion fast tracks exit rates vary little with tenure or salary the firm has personnel policies like those described in the internal labor markets literature although several theoretical preconditions for ilms such as ports of entry and exit are lacking job levels are important to compensation but there is also substantial individual variation in pay within levels our companion paper in this issue explores the wage policy of this firm

unequal laws and the disempowerment of women in the labor market evidence from firm level data institutions are defined as the set of rules that govern human interactions when these rules are discriminatory they may disempower segments of a population in the economic spheres of activity this study explores whether laws that discriminate against women influence their engagement in the economy the study adopts a holistic approach exploring an overall measure of unequal laws also known as legal gender disparities and relates it to several labor market outcomes for women using data for more than 60 000 firms across 104 economies the study finds that unequal laws not only discourage women s participation in the private sector workforce but also their likelihood to become top managers and owners of firms suggestive evidence indicates that access to finance and corruption are pathways by which legal gender disparities disempower women in the labor market

flexible exchange rates prices and the role of news lessons from the 1970s recent experience with flexible exchange rate systems has led to renewed interest in the operation of foreign exchange markets as reflected in many recent studies of the principal determinants of exchange rates the 1970s witnessed the dramatic alteration of the international monetary system from a regime of pegged exchange rates which prevailed for about a quarter of a century since the bretton woods conference into a regime of flexible though managed rates as a consequence of the emergence of the new legal and economic system traders national governments and international organisations were confronted with new economic problems choices and instruments during the 1970s ex change rates fluctuated widely and inflation rates accelerated the international monetary system had to accommodate extraordinarily large oil related shocks which affected trade flows in goods and assets huge oil payments had to be recycled uncertainties concerning future developments in international politics reached new heights and the prospects for the world economy got gloomier these developments placed unprecedented pressures on the markets for foreign exchange as well as on other asset markets they were associated with a large slide in the value of the us dollar and resulted in speeding up the creation of new institutions like the european monetary system which provided the formal framework for the management of exchange rates among members

what field experiments have and have not taught us about managing workers this paper reviews the field experimental evidence on firm employee relationships there is strong evidence that output rises in response to financial incentives but more mixed support for worker reciprocity in response to employer generosity non financial approaches such as worker recognition or adding meaning to mundane tasks can also increase output social relations are central to how firms function and have been shown to have an important impact on the design of incentive schemes what we do not know however far exceeds that which we have learned a broad swathe of important topics including recruiting worker promotion and training are virtually untouched thus far by field experiments

the forward exchange rate and the prediction of the future spot rate empirical evidence abstract this paper examines the characteristics and evaluates the record of the forward exchange rate as a predictor of the future spot rate of three european currencies during the recent period of floating rates the forward rate for 1 3 and 6 months is compared to a simple predictor of no change extrapolations i e a martingale model by the use of theil s inequality ratios theil s measures are then applied to assess the relative importance of the various sources of the forward s prediction errors and the efficiency of the forecast is tested the results show that the forward rate while generally producing unbiased forecasts fails to track the fluctuations in future spot rates and poorly reflects their variations further it does not perform better than the current spot rate in predicting the future spot rate for all the examined forecast leads thus its usefulness for the purpose of business decisions is questioned

further evidence on international islamic and conventional portfolios diversification under regime switching abstractthis article investigates the comparative performance of international islamic and conventional portfolio diversification across different financial market regimes and provides an optimal choice from an american investor s viewpoint during the period 2002 2014 using a bootstrap based stochastic dominance sd test and monthly msci prices of islamic stock market indices and their conventional counterparts in 38 countries from north and latin america europe and asia pacific regions we find that sd relationships between islamic and conventional optimal diversified portfolios change systematically according to investment region and market regime essentially for all regimes us investors are indifferent between islamic diversification and its conventional counterpart which implies that arbitrage diversification opportunities are rare and short lived in all regions however across all regions especially in a crisis regime islamic portfolio diversification can be a good substitute for convention

do formal salary systems really matter drawing on a single large u s corporation s personnel records for the years 1989 93 the authors analyze an example of the kind of formal salary system used by most large firms they find that this firm s practices were consistent with most of the important conclusions of prior empirical research on internal labor markets the system was highly centralized covering salary levels salary ranges raises and bonuses supervisors had little discretion over pay other than through subjective performance ratings the firm held fairly strictly to the salary rules leading to observable constraints on pay for employees near the top of the salary range these constraints however apparently did not impose important costs on the firm in the form of increased turnover although the system operated without any apparent connection to external factors the authors conclude that it transmitted external labor market forces with little distortion

flight to quality and correlation between currency and stock returns abstract we document that capital flows in and out of emerging or developed markets are sensitive to global equity market conditions capital tends to move out of emerging into developed countries in global down markets leading to depreciation appreciation of emerging developed currencies this generates a positive negative correlation between currency and equity in emerging developed markets which is amplified by the magnitude of the capital movement we also verify that hedging currency risks may undo the natural hedge and increase the total return volatility under negative correlation

intra household resource allocation an inferential approach if household income is pooled and then allocated to maximize welfare then income under the control of mothers and fathers should have the same impact on demand with survey data on family health and nutrition in brazil the equality of parental income effects is rejected unearned income in the hands of a mother has a bigger effect on her family s health than income under the control of a father for child survival probabilities the effect is almost twenty times bigger the common preference or neoclassical model of the household is rejected if unearned income is measured with error and income is pooled then the ratio of maternal to paternal income effects should be the same equality of the ratios cannot be rejected there is also evidence for gender preference mothers prefer to devote resources to improving the nutritional status of their daughters fathers to sons

international portfolio diversification with estimation risk international portfolio diversification has long been advocated as a way of enhancing average returns while reducing portfolio risk for the investor who considers diversifying into foreign securities this proposition however relies on the assumption that the required inputs to the classical mean variance analysis are known with certainty typically expected returns variances and covariances are simply replaced by their ex post sample values and the optimal portfolio is derived without mentioning the uncertainty inherent in these parameter values but the rational investor should take this uncertainty into account when forming expectations and probably will consider estimators that are less subject to estimation error than the classical sample mean this paper investigates alternative estimators of expected returns and their implications for the alleged gains from diversification an important observation is the crucial influence that errors in estimating expected returns have on portfolio analysis a closer examiprevious studies of international portfolio diversification have relied on ex post meanvariance analysis without considering the problem of estimation risk typically past averages are substituted for expected returns and no allowance is made for the uncertainty inherent in these parameter values first i demonstrate the shortcomings of such an approach and second i investigate another method of estimating expected returns initially proposed by stein by shrinking the sample averages toward a common mean i find that the out of sample performance of the optimal portfolio is substantially increased one of the implications of this method is that the classical conclusions vastly overestimate the possible gains in average returns instead benefits from diversification are more likely to accrue from a reduction in risk this paper draws on part of my dissertation at the university of chicago i am grateful to arnold zellner michael mussa george constantinides and especially john bilson for useful discussions and comments numerous improvements were also suggested by the referee this research received the generous financial support of the college interuniversitaire d etudes doctorales dans les sciences du management

performance promotion and the peter principle this paper considers why organizations use promotions rather than just monetary bonuses to motivate employees even though this may conflict with efficient assignment of employees to jobs when performance is unverifiable use of promotion reduces the incentive for managers to be affected by influence activities that would blunt the effectiveness of monetary bonuses when employees are risk neutral use of promotion for incentives need not distort assignments when they are risk averse it may sufficient conditions for this are given the distortion may be either to promote more employees than is efficient the peter principle effect or fewer

equilibrium exchange rate hedging we assume a world like the one that gives the capital asset pricing model but with many goods and many countries we assume that investors in a given country have homothetic utility functions with the same weights and a currency that has a sure endof period value using a price index with those weights siegel s paradox derived from jensen s inequality makes investors want a positive amount of exchange risk when average risk tolerance is the same across countries every investor will hold the same mix of market risk through the world market portfolio of all assets and exchange risk in a diversified basket of foreign currencies in fact the ratio of exchange risk to market risk is equal to the average investor s risk tolerance we can write the ratio of exchange risk to market risk and the fraction of the market s exchange risk that investors hedge as depending on an average of world market risk premia an average of world market volatilities and an average of exchange rate volatilities the weights in these averages are the same as the weights of the different countries in the currency basket given these averages the ratio and the fraction hedged will not depend directly on exchange rate means or covariances in equilibrium we can use the ratio of exchange risk to market risk to measure average risk tolerance in this model risk tolerance is observable

universal hedging optimizing currency risk and reward in international equity portfolios investors can increase their returns by holding foreign stocks in addition to domestic ones they can also gain by taking the appropriate amount of exchange risk but what amount is appropriate assume that investors see the world in light of their own consumption goods and count both risk and expected return when figuring their optimum hedges assume that they share common views on stocks and currencies and that markets are liquid and there are no barriers to international investing in this perfect world it is possible to derive a formula for the optimal hedge ratio this formula requires three basic inputs the average across countries of the expected returns on the world market portfolio the average across countries of the volatility of the world market portfolio and the average across all pairs of countries of exchange rate volatility these values can be estimated from historical data the formula in turn gives the circumstances for three rules 1 hedge foreign equity 2 hedge less than 100

optimal promotion policies with the looking glass effect this chapter considers a model where the agent is uncertain about his innate ability and instead makes an inference from others namely the principal s perception as often emphasized in the psychology literature when the principal has superior knowledge about the agent s productivity than the agent himself the principal has an incentive to use promotions strategically to boost the agent s self confidence within this framework the optimal promotion policy depends not only on the agent s current expected ability type but also on the history of his previous job assignments we then use this fact to explain why we rarely observe demotions in organizations