individual transferable quota markets under illegal fishing the use of individual transferable quotas in fisheries has been considered an opportunity to achieve a given total allowable catch with a maximum social benefit one of the assumptions used in obtaining that result is that the system is in perfect compliance the presence of violations and the need for enforcement of tradable property rights systems in fisheries has not received much attention in the literature the incidents of non compliance however may affect the performance of transferable property rights based fisheries in unexplored ways in this paper we adapt previous literature on enforcing emissions trading programs to analyze a positive model of fisherman behavior that operates under a perfectly competitive individual transferable quota system while recognizing the opportunities for violations of quota holdings given incomplete enforcement considering a poorly enforced individual transferable quota system we are able to obtain a number of implications for the current and future equilibrium of the quota market the time paths of the fishery and the proper design of a policy rule on total allowable catch tac

going for the gold the economics of the olympics in summer 2016 the eyes of the world will turn to rio de janeiro as it hosts the games of the xxxi olympiad better known as the summer olympics unfortunately the price tag of well over 10 billion for the event is adding to the already considerable strain on government budgets in brazil faced with a nasty recession cuts in public services and rising unemployment throngs of brazilians have turned out to protest what is seen as wasteful spending and a misallocation of resources on the olympics throw in the growing threat of the zika virus and brazil may end up with larger crowds of agitators protesting the government than of sports fans cheering on the athletes but are these complaints about olympic spending justified the quadrennial summer olympic games is one of the world s premier sporting events with over 10 000 athletes representing 204 countries 300 individual events in 28 different sports over 10 million tickets sold to spectators and a worldwide television audience in the billions on a somewhat smaller scale the most recent winter olympic games held in 2014 in sochi russia welcomed nearly 3 000 athletes from 88 countries to compete in 98 events in 15 disciplines while generating large revenues and massive television ratings while most viewers tune in to watch the competition among the athletes the battle among cities to be selected to host these events can be just as fierce although bidding cities have numerous reasons for wanting to host none seems more prevalent than the desire for an economic windfall in this paper we explore the costs and

regional income and employment effects of the 1972 munich olympic summer games jasmand s and maennig w regional income and employment effects of the 1972 munich summer olympic games regional studies olympic games may have impacts on income and employment in the host city but no ex post study has been carried out for european olympic host cities to date the present study closes this gap by using the 1972 munich summer olympic games the data period examined in this study allows for analysis of long term effects in addition the methodology avoids overestimating the significance of the effects finally results are reported for all possible combinations of pre and post olympic periods the results were that income in olympic regions grew significantly faster than in other german regions but in contrast no employment effects were identified jasmand s et maennig w incidences des jeux olympiques d ete de 1972 a munich sur les revenus et l emploi regional studies il est possible que les jeux olympiques aient des incidences sur les revenus et l emploi dans la ville hote or

identification of financial factors in economic fluctuations we estimate demand supply monetary investment and nancial shocks in a var identified with a minimum set of sign restrictions on us data we find that financial shocks are major drivers of fluctuations in output stock prices and investment but have a limited effect on inflation in a second step we disentangle shocks originating in the housing sector shocks originating in credit markets and uncertainty shocks in the extended set upfinancial shocks are even more important and a leading role is played by housing shocks that have large and persistent effects on output

house prices and credit constraints making sense of the us experience most us house price models break down in the mid 2000s due to the omission of exogenous changes in mortgage credit supply associated with the sub prime mortgage boom from house price to rent ratio and inverted housing demand models previous models lack data on credit constraints facing first time home buyers incorporating a measure of credit conditions the cyclically adjusted loan to value ratio for first time buyers into house price to rent ratio models yields stable long run relationships more precisely estimated effects reasonable speeds of adjustment and improved model fits

business cycle measurement with some theory a method to evaluate cyclical models not requiring knowledge of the dgp and the exact specification of the aggregate decision rules is proposed we derive robust restrictions in a class of models use some to identify structural shocks in the data and others to evaluate the class or contrast sub models the approach has good properties even in small samples and when the class of models is misspecified the method is used to sort out the relevance of a certain friction the presence of rule of thumb consumers in a standard class of models

housing collateral and the monetary transmission mechanism in this paper we quantify the effects of the recent increase in the housing loan to value ratio ltv on the monetary transmission mechanism we set up a two sector dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with collateral constraints and production of goods and housing using bayesian methods we quantify the component of the monetary transmission mechanism that is generated by housing collateral we find that this component is substantial and strongly increasing in the ltv we conclude that in order to properly understand the monetary transmission mechanism we need to take into account the effects of housing related collateral constraints and their changing nature

interconnections between eurozone and us booms and busts using a bayesian panel markov switching var model summary the proposed panel markov switching var model accommodates changes in low and high data frequencies and incorporates endogenous time varying transition matrices of country specific markov chains allowing for interconnections an efficient multi move sampling algorithm draws time varying markov switching chains using industrial production growth and credit spread data several important data features are obtained three regimes appear with slow growth becoming persistent in the eurozone turning point analysis indicates the usa leading the eurozone cycle amplification effects influence recession probabilities for eurozone countries a credit shock results in temporary negative industrial production growth in germany spain and the usa core and peripheral countries exist in the eurozone copyright 2016 john wiley sons ltd

what caused the early millennium slowdown evidence based on vector autoregressions this paper uses a simple var for the usa and euro area to analyse the underlying shocks of the early millennium slowdown i e supply demand monetary policy and oil price shocks the results of two identification strategies are compared one is based on traditional zero restrictions and as an alternative an identification scheme based on more recent sign restrictions is proposed the main conclusion is that the recent slowdown is caused by a combination of several shocks negative aggregate supply and aggregate spending shocks the increase of oil prices in 1999 and restrictive monetary policy in 2000 these shocks are more pronounced in the usa than the euro area the results are somewhat different depending on the identification strategy it is illustrated that traditional zero restrictions can have an influence on the estimated impact of certain shocks copyright 2005 john wiley sons ltd

economic growth with bubbles this paper presents a stylized model of economic growth with bubbles this model views asset price bubbles as a market generated device to moderate the effects of frictions in financial markets improving the allocation of investments and raising the capital stock and welfare the model illustrates various channels through which asset price bubbles affect the incentives for innovation and economic reforms and therefore the rate of economic growth the model also offers a new perspective on the effects of financial development on asset price bubbles and economic growth

the role of bank capital in the propagation of shocks abstract the recent financial turmoil has underlined the importance of analyzing the link between banks balance sheets and economic activity we develop a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model in which bank capital mitigates an agency problem between banks and their creditors as a result the capital position of banks affects their ability to attract loanable funds and therefore influences the business cycle through a bank capital channel of transmission we find that the bank capital channel greatly amplifies and propagates the effects of technology shocks on output investment and inflation moreover bank capital shocks create sizeable declines in output and investment

bank leverage cycles and the external finance premium by combining the approaches of gertler and karadi 2011 and bernanke et al 1999 i develop a dsge model with leverage constraints both in the banking and in the non financial firm sector i calibrate this full model to us data in a world with only a monetary policy and a productivity shock the full model matches the relative volatility of the external finance premium while a bgg model generates too low volatility the full model also matches the procyclicality of bank leverage unlike the gk model for a reasonably calibrated combination shocks to the net worth of banks and non financial firms the model reproduces a substantial share of the contraction increase of investment the external finance premium observed during the great recession

how similar are country and sector responses to common shocks within the euro area abstract ever since the introduction of the euro there have been discussions about whether europe constitutes an optimal currency area the great recession and the european debt crisis have rekindled and intensified this debate heterogeneous country experiences have led to questioning the rationale for a common monetary policy in the absence of a common fiscal framework to cushion macroeconomic shocks in this paper we examine whether the impact of typical macroeconomic shocks at the european monetary union emu level varies across countries and sectors we follow furlanetto et al 2017 and estimate common euro area macroeconomic supply demand monetary investment and financial shocks using sign restrictions we calculate the impulse responses to these shocks at the country sector level using local linear projections and propose a measure for business cycle synchronisation based on the similarity of the responses we find varying degrees of heterogeneity across member countries responses to common emu shocks although the responses of economic sectors are themselves heterogeneous different sector decompositions across countries cannot explain the cross country heterogeneity contrary to e g bayoumi and eichengreen 1993 2017 we identify italy to be a core country in line with recent literature the level of heterogeneity was the most pronounced during the financial crisis compared to pre and post crisis periods

investment shocks and business cycles abstract the origins of business cycles are still controversial among macroeconomists this paper contributes to this debate by studying the driving forces of fluctuations in an estimated new neoclassical synthesis model of the u s economy in this model most of the variability of output and hours at business cycle frequencies is due to shocks to the marginal efficiency of investment imperfect competition and to a lesser extent technological frictions are the key to their transmission although labor supply shocks explain a large fraction of the fluctuations in hours at very low frequencies they are irrelevant over the business cycle this finding is important because the microfoundations of these disturbances are widely regarded as unappealing

drawing conclusions from structural vector autoregressions identified on the basis of sign restrictions abstract this paper discusses the problems associated with using information about the signs of certain magnitudes as a basis for drawing structural conclusions in vector autoregressions we also review available tools to solve these problems for illustration we use dahlhaus and vasishtha s 2019 study of the effects of a u s monetary contraction on capital flows to emerging markets we explain why sign restrictions alone are not enough to allow us to answer the question and suggest alternative approaches that could be used

implications of a discard ban in multispecies quota fisheries we present an analysis of quota regulation and discarding in multispecies fisheries explicitly taking into account the costs of non compliance with quotas and a possible discard ban as well as the costs of selective fishing avoidance effort we examine the impact of a discard ban on vessels profit maximising behaviour in particular where species quotas are not set in proportion to their availability on the fishing grounds considering both non tradeable quotas and itqs we show the interdependence between penalty rates for both discards and over quota landings in determining quota market outcomes we find that quota prices are sensitive to penalty rates and to the presence of restrictive quotas for choke species

fishing quota markets abstract in 1986 new zealand responded to the open access problem by establishing the world s largest individual transferable quota itq system using a 15 year panel dataset from new zealand that covers 33 species and more than 150 markets for fishing quotas we assess trends in market activity price dispersion and the fundamentals determining quota prices we find that market activity is sufficiently high in the economically important markets and that price dispersion has decreased we also find evidence of economically rational behavior through the relationship between quota lease and sale prices and fishing output and input prices ecological variability and market interest rates controlling for these factors our results show a greater increase in quota prices for fish stocks that faced significant reductions consistent with increased profitability due to rationalization overall this suggests that these markets are operating reasonably well implying that itqs can be effective instruments for efficient fisheries management

regulation of fisheries bycatch with common pool output quotas abstract many fisheries around the world are plagued with the problem of bycatch the inadvertent harvesting and discard of non targeted species bycatch occurs when targeted and non targeted species coincide in the same habitat and gear is imperfectly selective one of the prevailing methods of controlling bycatch is the common pool quota system under this system biologists set total allowable catches tacs for both the targeted and non targeted species and the fishing season is closed when one of these tacs binds we develop a predictive model of a renewable resource that is regulated with this kind of common pool quota system the model demonstrates that the equilibrium will generally be characterized by excessive discards shortened seasons and foregone target species harvest these results occur even with very efficient low bycatch fishing gear we examine the sensitivity of our predictions to changes in technological parameters and degrees of spatial correlation of target and non target species finally we derive the optimal bycatch penalty function and describe its significance in light of various policy options available to regulators

loan supply shocks during the financial crisis evidence for the euro area this paper employs a panel vector autoregressive model for the member countries of the euro area to explore the role of banks during the slump of the real economy that followed the financial crisis in particular we seek to quantify the macroeconomic effects of adverse loan supply shocks which are identified using sign restrictions we find that loan supply shocks significantly contributed to the evolution of the loan volume and real gdp growth in all member countries during the financial crisis however concerning both the timing and the magnitude of the shocks our results also indicate that the euro area was characterized by a considerable degree of cross country heterogeneity

business cycle implications of mortgage spreads abstract how do aggregate quantities at the business cycle frequency respond to shocks to the spread between residential mortgage rates and government bonds using a structural var approach we find that mortgage spread shocks impact the real economy by both economically and statistically significant magnitudes a 100 basis point decline in the spread causes a peak increase in consumption residential investment and gdp by 1 6 percent 6 2 percent and 1 9 percent respectively presumably these effects are magnified when the policy rate is held fixed as was the case in the us during the recent implementation of unconventional monetary policy

the external finance premium and the macroeconomy us post wwii evidence abstract the central variable of theories of financial frictions the external finance premium is unobservable this paper distils the external finance premium from a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium dsge model estimated on us macroeconomic data covering the period 1954 to 2004 within the dsge framework movements in the premium can be given an interpretation in terms of shocks driving business cycles a key result is that the estimate based solely on non financial macroeconomic data picks up over 70 of the dynamics of lower grade corporate bond spreads the paper also identifies a gain in fitting key macroeconomic aggregates by including financial frictions in the model and documents how shock transmission is affected

measures of welfare effects in multiproduct industries the case of multispecies individual quota fisheries a framework is developed to measure the welfare effects of individual quota reforms in multiproduct industries using the multimarket welfare measure techniques suggested by just hueth and schmitz 1982 and the concept of virtual price in the production theory literature neary 1995 squires and kirkley 1996 under joint in input production it is shown that quasirent under a single quota can be measured by the producer surplus either in the output market for quota output or in the quota market under multiple quotas the welfare effects of quota policies can be measured in one of the quota markets using inverse derived equilibrium demand curves these results are obtained for a joint in input technology where positive production of at least one of the quota outputs is necessary for the firm to continue to operate application of the inverse derived demand functions for welfare measurement is shown for both transferable and nontransferable quotas

on the economic impact of international sport events microevidence from survey data at the euro 2008 using firm level data for more than 700 swiss hotels and restaurants we evaluate the economic impact of the euro 2008 soccer championship in switzerland although aggregated macrodata do not reveal any sizable economic impact we report an overall negative effect based on the surveyed companies notably the reported effects of the individual firms are very heterogeneous for instance hotels in cities benefitted from the tournament as they were able to raise prices and thereby increase sales looking at the long run impact only a small fraction of companies do believe in a positive effect interestingly this outlook does not depend on realized sales but on the guest structure

labor supply factors and economic fluctuations we propose a new v ar identication scheme that enables us to disentangle labor supply shocks from wage bargaining shocks identication is achieved by imposing robust sign restrictions that are derived from a new keynesian model with endogenous labor force par ticipation according to our analysis on us data over the period 1985 2014 labor supply shocks and wage bargaining shocks are important drivers of output and unemployment both in the short run and in the long run these results suggest that identication strategies used in estimated new keynesian models to disentangle labor market shocks may be misguided we also analyze the behavior of the labor force participation rate through the lenses of our model wend that labor supply shocks are the main drivers of the participation rate and account for about half of its decline in the aftermath of the great recession

stochastic bycatch informational asymmetry and discarding abstract the existing literature i examines bycatch and discard behavior in a static framework and ii treats bycatch as a deterministic process uniform across vessels using a dynamic representative agent model in a two stock resource this paper explores strategic interactions between a social planner and two groups of harvesters one of which imposes a stochastic technological externality bycatch on the other in addition to limitations on entry and the number of trips taken in each industry three bycatch control instruments are compared to the unconstrained case taxes trip limits and value based quotas implementation and enforcement costs aside taxes dominate both types of quota and value limits outperform trip limits by eliminating one type of discarding in simulations relative performance depends upon variance in the bycatch process differences in the ex vessel prices of stocks relative efficiency of the harvester types and fixed costs on the trip and industry margins

time variation in macro financial linkages summary we analyze the contribution of credit spread house and stock price shocks to the us economy based on a time varying parameter vector autoregressive model we find that the contribution of financial shocks to gross domestic product growth fluctuates from about 20 in normal times to more than 50 during the great recession the great recession and the subsequent weak recovery can largely be traced back to negative housing shocks housing shocks have become more important for the real economy since the early 2000s and negative housing shocks are more important than positive ones unexpected increases in credit spreads have not been deflationary recently copyright 2016 john wiley sons ltd

measuring the reaction of monetary policy to the stock market movements in the stock market can have a significant impact on the macroeconomy and are therefore likely to be an important factor in the determination of monetary policy however little is known about the magnitude of the federal reserve s reaction to the stock market in part because the simultaneous response of equity prices to interest rates makes it difficult to estimate this paper uses an identification technique based on the heteroskedasticity of stock market returns to measure the reaction of monetary policy to the stock market we find a significant policy response with a 5 percent rise fall in the s p 500 index increasing the likelihood of a 25 basis point tightening easing by about a half

bioeconomies of scope and the discard problem in multiple species fisheries abstract we consider the problem of multi species fisheries management when targeting individual species is costly and at sea discards of fish by fishermen are unobserved by the regulator stock conditions ecosystem interaction technological specification and relative prices under which at sea discards are acute are identified a dynamic model is developed to balance ecological interdependencies among multiple fish species and scope economies implicit in a costly targeting technology three regulatory regimes species specific harvest quotas landing taxes and revenue quotas are contrasted against a hypothetical sole owner problem an optimal plan under all regimes precludes discarding for both very low and very high levels of targeting costs first best welfare is close to that achieved through any of the regulatory regimes in general however landing taxes welfare dominate species specific quota regulation a revenue quota fares the worst

non compliance and the quota price in an itq fishery this paper examines the effects of non compliance on quota demands and the equilibrium quota price in an itq fishery i show that whereas lower quota prices are implied unambiguously by expected penalties which are a function of the absolute violation size the expectation of penalties based upon relative violations of quota demands can under certain conditions produce higher quota prices than in a compliant quota market if there are both compliant and non compliant firms in the fishery the result would then be a shift in quota demand from compliant to non compliant firms rather than the reverse the findings are generally applicable to quota markets in other industries including pollution permit markets

supportive housing and neighborhood property value externalities we analyzed impacts on single fam institutional settings as part of the nationily home prices of eleven small scale supportive wide deinstitutionalization movement housing facilities announced in denver during beginning in the 1970s chronically men 1989 1995 using a difference in differences econo tally ill developmentally and physically dis metric specification we found that these facilities abled non violent produced a positive impact on house prices within offenders recovering 1 001 to 2 000 feet we attributed this effect to coun substance abusers and frail elderly inditervailing externalities building rehabilitation vs viduals have increasingly been domiciled resident behaviors that vary in their spatial extent in small scale facilities located in residen supportive housing facilities were systematically tial neighborhoods this normalization sited in neighborhoods with declining relative of residential environment coupled with prices compared to elsewhere in the census tract on site and on call specialized care is seen this location bias led a conventional econometric as therapeutic bymany policy makers new specification to erroneously estimate a negative property value impact from supportive housing

large sport events and unemployment the case of the 2006 soccer world cup in germany this study analyses on the basis of a multivariate analysis ex post the effects on the jobs market of a soccer world cup in this case the 2006 world cup held in germany in addition to three methods already used for other analyses in studies of sporting events an extended difference in difference estimate is used in order to compare the development of the numbers of unemployed in the 12 world cup venues with the development of the numbers of unemployed in 63 other german cities the results demonstrate that in none of the respective match venues did the effect of the sporting event on unemployment differ significantly from zero

quota induced discarding in heterogeneous fisheries abstract individual quota iq programs are a promising and increasingly common means of regulating fisheries this paper examines how profit maximizing fishers respond to different types of iq programs in fisheries where many types of fish are harvested simultaneously this analysis shows that the most common types of individual quota programs can induce discarding and that individual quota programs that regulate the value of harvests never induce discarding since discarded fish have a high mortality rate value based individual quota programs are superior to their more conventional counterparts in that they waste fewer fish the disadvantages of value based quotas are also examined results are driven by the fact that the harvest technology examined here does not satisfy a free disposal assumption since this free disposal assumption is ubiquitous in production theory and not obviously true the framework developed herein may be useful for analyzing a broad class of problems involving joint production

assessing the olympic games the economic impact and beyond this study reviews the literature on the evaluation of the olympic games within the broader framework of their significance as cultural assets and opportunities for endogenous growth and sustainable development of the host city the study reviews the main approaches to the economic assessment of the games from the point of view of the underlying economic concepts and methodologies as well as of the empirical results obtained it focuses on the effects that are measured and on those which even though important are generally neglected the methodologies utilized for the quantitative assessments of the games are reviewed with special emphasis on impact and cost benefit analysis both on ex ante and ex post basis the studies surveyed are analysed from the point of view of different sets of effects on the host city and for a limited number of cases on the host country while the major focus is on hosting the summer olympics some attention is also paid to the bidding cities the winter olympics and the paralympics the general findings appear to be controversial with some hints of positive overall effects but also with a well documented tendency to exaggerate the benefits and underestimate the costs of holding the games in the ex ante versus the ex post studies the survey finally suggests that ex post cross country econometric studies tend to catch sizable differential and persistent benefits ignored by individual studies especially on macroeconomic and trade variables