global inequality how large is the effect of top incomes abstract despite the growing interest in global inequality assessing inequality trends is a major challenge because individual data on income or consumption is not often available nevertheless the periodic release of certain summary statistics of the income distribution has become increasingly common hence grouped data in form of income shares have been conventionally used to construct inequality trends based on lower bound approximations of inequality measures this approach introduces two potential sources of measurement error first these estimates are constructed under the assumption of equality of incomes within income shares second the highest income earners are not included in the household surveys from which grouped data is obtained in this paper we propose to deploy a flexible parametric model which addresses these two issues in order to obtain a reliable representation of the income distribution and accurate estimates of inequality measures this methodology is used to estimate the recent evolution of global interpersonal inequality from 1990 to 2015 and to examine the effect of survey under coverage of top incomes on the level and direction of global inequality overall we find that item non response at the top of the distribution substantially biases global inequality estimates but more importantly it might also affect the direction of the trends

urbanization and poverty reduction the role of rural diversification and secondary towns a rather unique panel tracking more than 3 300 individuals from households in rural kagera tanzania during 1991 4 2010 shows that about one in two individuals households who exited poverty did so by transitioning from agriculture into the rural nonfarm economy or secondary towns only one in seven exited poverty by migrating to a large city although those moving to a city experienced on average faster consumption growth further analysis of a much larger cross country panel of 51 developing countries cannot reject that rural diversification and secondary town development lead to more inclusive growth patterns than metropolitization indications are that this follows because more of the poor find their way to the rural nonfarm economy and secondary towns than to distant cities the development discourse would benefit from shifting beyond the rural urban dichotomy and focusing instead more on how best to urbanize and develop the rural nonfarm economy and secondary towns

income inequality and education revisited persistence endogeneity and heterogeneity this article presents new results on the relationship between income inequality and education expansion that is increasing average years of schooling and reducing inequality of schooling when d

changes over time in multidimensional poverty methodology and results for 34 countries summary this paper sets out a systemic account of intertemporal changes in multidimensional poverty using the alkire foster adjusted headcount ratio and its consistent sub indices it uses three techniques to assess the pro poorness of multidimensional poverty reduction the analysis of changes in multidimensional poverty draws on the global multidimensional poverty index mpi and related destitution measure in 34 countries and 338 sub national regions covering 2 5 billion people for which there is a recent mpi estimation and comparable demographic and health survey dhs dataset across time first it assesses overall changes in poverty and its incidence and intensity and compares this with changes in 1 90 poverty next utilizing the property of subgroup decomposability it examines changes in the mpi and its consistent sub indices over time across urban rural regions sub national regions and ethnic groups the decomposition analysis identifies relevant national patterns including those in which the pace of poverty reduction is higher for the poorest subgroups finally the paper analyzes the dynamics of a strict subset of the poor who are identified as destitute using a more extreme deprivation cutoff vector and studies relative rates of reduction of destitution and poverty by country and region this extensive empirical analysis illustrates how to assess the extent and patterns of reduction of multidimensional poverty as well as whether it is inclusive or whether some people or groups are left behind naturally some further research questions emerge

intangible capital market share and corporate strategy this paper theoretically and empirically identifies the determinants of firm profitability and market share for twelve broadly defined us manufacturing industry groups the effects of advertising research and development and diversification on profitability and market share are econometrically tested for each industry group and corporate strategy implications of the results are considered one major result of the analysis is that research and development r d tends to be much more effective as a means of enhancing firm profitability than advertising and research and development spending decisions are more closely related to the profitability of r d than advertising decisions are related to the profitability of advertising

schumacher meets schumpeter appropriate technology below the radar innovation and technological change play an important role in poverty reduction through their contribution to growth their use of factors of production their environmental spillovers the social relations associated with production and the characteristics of the products which they produce it was only after the 1960s that these linkages were identified with the recognition that much of global technological progress was directed to meet the needs of the global rich and was best suited to operation in high income environments the development and diffusion of appropriate technologies was an agenda largely pursued by the not for profit appropriate technology movement however with the global diffusion of innovative capabilities and the rapid rise of incomes of the very poor the second bottom billion innovation for the poor and innovation appropriate for production in low wage and poor infrastructure environments has increasingly become an arena for profitable production the very large size of china and india coupled with their growing technological capabilities and the rapid growth of low incomes makes it likely that they will become the dominant sources of innovation for the poor

methods of household consumption measurement through surveys experimental results from tanzania consumption expenditure has long been the preferred measure of household living standards however accurate measurement is a challenge and household expenditure surveys vary widely across many dimensions including the level of reporting the length of the reference period and the degree of commodity detail these variations occur both across countries and also over time within countries there is little current understanding of the implications of such changes for spatially and temporally consistent measurement of household consumption and poverty a field experiment in tanzania tests eight alternative methods to measure household consumption on a sample of 4 000 households there are significant differences between consumption reported by the benchmark personal diary and other diary and recall formats under reporting is particularly relevant in illiterate households and for urban respondents completing household diaries recall modules measure lower consumption than a personal diary with larger gaps among poorer households and households with more adult members variations in reporting accuracy by household characteristics are also discussed and differences in measured poverty as a result of survey design are explored the study concludes with recommendations for methods of survey based consumption measurement in low income countries

comparing costs of living across world cities this paper compares costs of living across world cities the international comparison program icp reports price levels across world economies in its calculation of purchasing power parity through

is global social welfare increasing a critical level enquiry abstract we assess whether global social welfare has improved in the last decades despite or because of the substantial increase in global population we use for this purpose a relatively unknown but simple and attractive social evaluation approach called critical level generalized utilitarianism clgu clgu posits that social welfare increases with population size if and only if the new lives come with a level of living standards higher than that of a critical level despite its attractiveness clgu poses a number of practical difficulties that may explain why the literature has left it largely unexplored we address these difficulties by developing new procedures for making partial clgu orderings the headline result is that we can robustly conclude that world welfare has increased between 1990 and 2005 if we judge that lives with per capita yearly consumption of more than 1 248 necessarily increase social welfare the same conclusion applies to sub saharan africa if and only if we are willing to make that same judgment for lives with any level of per capita yearly consumption above 147 otherwise some of the admissible clgu functions will judge the last two decades increase in global population size to have lowered global social welfare

the renminbi and poor country growth discussions on how best to exit from global imbalances to create a more balanced world economy have ignored the impact on poor countries of proposals to redress these imbalances this paper aims at filling that gap it gauges the degree of renminbi rmb undervaluation presents evidence on rmb undervaluation and china s gdp growth rate surveys the role of the real effective exchange rate both its level and its stability over time for underpinning growth in developing countries especially in large dual economies such as china and india finally the paper presents new evidence on growth linkages between china and poor countries for the last two decades and surveys literature on potential displacement effects of rmb appreciation the analysis allows broad conclusions to be drawn about the potential developing country beneficiaries and losers from various renminbi adjustment scenarios in the forthcoming years

product quality product price and share dynamics in the german compact car market the present paper examines one of the central elements of evolutionary thinking the replicator dynamics mechanism using data on product characteristics of automobiles sold on the german domestic market over the period 2001 2006 we construct a fitness variable for each car model applying non parametric efficiency measurement techniques better known as data envelopment analysis dea the basic question we intend to answer is whether cars providing a higher quality price ratio for consumers tend to increase their market share compared to variants with lower quality price ratio for consumers the relationship between a car models fitness and its market performance is empirically tested in a regression framework the results show that the principle of growth of the fitter is working as suggested by evolutionary theory in particular we find that car models with considerably lower fitness than the market average lose whereas models with above average fitness gain additional market shares

measuring global poverty why ppp methods matter abstract we present theory and evidence to suggest that in the context of analyzing global poverty the eks approach to estimating purchasing power parities yields more appropriate international comparison of real incomes than the geary khamis approach our analysis of the 1996 and 2005 international comparison project data confirms that the geary khamis approach substantially overstates the relative incomes of the world s poorest nations and this leads to misleading comparisons of poverty across regions and over time the eks index of real income is much closer to being a true index of economic welfare and is therefore preferred for assessment of global poverty

china s uneven progress against poverty while the incidence of extreme poverty in china fell dramatically over 1980 2001 progress was uneven over time and across provinces rural areas accounted for the bulk of the gains to the poor though migration to urban areas helped the pattern of growth mattered rural economic growth was far more important to national poverty reduction than urban economic growth agriculture played a far more important role than the secondary or tertiary sources of gross domestic product gdp rising inequality within the rural sector greatly slowed poverty reduction provinces starting with relatively high inequality saw slower progress against poverty due both to lower growth and a lower growth elasticity of poverty reduction taxation of farmers and inflation hurt the poor external trade had little short term impact

microfinance and poverty a macro perspective we test the hypothesis that microfinance reduces poverty at the macro level using cross country and panel data which are constructed by the microfinance information exchange data on microfinance institutions mfis and the world bank data taking account of the endogeneity associated with mfis loans we show that a country with higher mfis gross loan portfolio per capita tends to have lower levels of poverty indices contrary to recent micro evidence our results suggest that microfinance significantly reduces poverty at macro level and thus reinforce the case for channeling funds from development finance institutions and governments of developing countries into mfis

an exploration of the changes in the international comparison program s global economic landscape abstract the purchasing power parity ppp rates from the 2011 round of the international comparison program icp imply some dramatic revisions to price levels and real incomes across the world as compared to the prior 2005 round this has important implications for many cross country comparisons including measures of poverty and inequality without presuming that either round is better methodologically the paper tries to help the community of icp users better understand the economic factors underlying the estimated changes in price levels across countries differences in domestic inflation rates have played a role as expected two other factors are identified the excess sensitivity to changes in market exchange rates suggests that the ppps may put higher weight on internationally traded goods than do domestic deflators additionally faster growing countries have seen a steeper rise in their ppp relative to market exchange rates this can be explained by a tendency for wage increases in growing economies to lead to a higher price level together these factors account for over 70 of the variance in ppp changes even ignoring methodological changes however an independent downward drift in price levels is also evident concentrated in the icp s asia region a possible explanation lies in the asia region s greater success relative to other regions in removing urban bias in the price surveys

weakly relative poverty prevailing measures of relative poverty are unchanged when all incomes grow or contract by the same proportion this property stems from seemingly implausible assumptions about the disutility of relative deprivation and the cost of social inclusion the authors propose weakly relative lines that relax these assumptions on calibrating our measures to national poverty lines and survey data we find that half the population of the developing world in 2005 lived in poverty only half of whom were absolutely poor the total number of poor rose over 1981 to 2005 despite falling numbers of absolutely poor with sustained economic growth the incidence of relative poverty became less responsive to further growth the number of relatively poor rose just as the numbers of absolutely poor fell

governance strategies and welfare effects vertical integration and contracts in the catfish sector in vietnam using an original dataset from the vietnamese catfish sector we study the impact of vertical coordination options on household welfare and the implications of different stages of vertical coordination for the success of the whole sector the welfare gain from contract farming and employment on processor owned estate farms is estimated using a maximum simulated likelihood estimator our results show positive welfare effects from participating in contract farming but not from employment on processor owned estate farms the results imply that contract farming presents opportunities for economic growth but additional effort is required to make the contracts more accessible to smallholders

fiscal stimulus agricultural growth and poverty in asia recent debates on a sustainable recovery of the global economy have tended to overemphasise the savings glut hypothesis and the unavoidable imperative of higher consumption in china and other emerging asian countries that oversaving and not underinvestment is coming in the way of a quicker and more durable recovery is not just simplistic but misleading from a medium term growth perspective for emerging asian countries and other developing countries in this region drawing upon country panel data for developing countries and a subsample of asian countries during the period 1991 2007 this study makes a case for a bold and coordinated fiscal stimulus directed to stimulating agricultural and overall growth and mitigation of poverty and hunger our simulations further suggest that poverty reduction is likely to be larger if the fiscal stimulus is directed to social spending in health and education sectors indeed if our simulations of fiscal impacts have any validity the dire predictions of millions getting trapped in poverty and hunger may turn out to be exaggerated the prospects of a strong recovery led by fiscal stimulus are thus real and achievable

the impact of sustainable construction and knowledge management on sustainability goals a review of the venezuelan renewable energy sector the recognition of the relevance of energy especially of the renewable energies generated by the sun water wind tides modern biomass or thermal is growing significantly in the global society based on the possibility it has to improve societies quality of life to support poverty reduction and sustainable development renewable energy and mainly the energy generated by large hydropower generation projects that supply most of the renewable energy consumed by developing countries requires many technical legal financial and social complex processes sustained by innovations and valuable knowledge besides these efforts renewable energy requires a solid infrastructure to generate and distribute the energy resources needed to solve the basic needs of society this demands a proper construction performance to deliver the energy projects planned according to specifications and respecting environmental and social concerns which implies the observance of sustainable construction guidelines but construction projects are complex and demanding and frequently face time and cost overruns that may cause negative impacts on the initial planning and thus on society the renewable energy issue and the large renewable energy power generation and distribution projects are particularly significant for developing countries and for latin america in particular as this region concentrates an important hydropower potential and installed capacity using as references the performance of venezuelan large hydropower generation projects and the guri dam construction this research evaluates the tight relationship existing between sustainable construction and knowledge management and their impact to achieve sustainability goals the knowledge management processes are proposed as a basic strategy to allow learning from successes and failures obtained in previous projects and transform the enhancement opportunites into actions to improve the performance of the renewable energy power generation and distribution projects

poverty and household size the widely held view that larger families tend to be poorer in developing countries has influenced research and policy the scope for size economies in consumption cautions against this view we find that the correlation between poverty and size vanishes in pakistan when the size elasticity of the cost of living is about 0 6 this turns out to be the elasticity implied by a modified version of the food share method of setting scales by contrast some measures of child nutritional status indicate an elasticity of unity consideration of the weight attached to child versus adult welfare may help resolve the non robustness of demographic profiles of poverty excerpt

the testing and estimation of complete demand systems on household budget surveys a recent demand system aids is extended to include family size explicitly and then estimated on indian budget data the estimation using non linear fiml is performed first on pure time series and then on pooled cross section data within and across equation restrictions are imposed and tested the principal results include u a significant price and family size effects on the budget share of an item b sensitivity of test results on homogeneity and symmetry to i rural urban data ii time series cross section and iii inclusion omission of family size c considerable difference between pure time series and pooled cross section estimates and d difference between the expenditure responses of the rural and urban consumer

the influence of macroeconomic factors on personal income distribution in developing countries a parametric modelling approach this article examines the influence of macroeconomic factors on personal income distribution in developing countries using a parametric modelling approach the technique is based on the selection and estimation of a theoretical parametric model a dagum distribution which fits accurately to the empirical income distributions of the countries examined the parameters of the model specifically related to inequality are subsequently used as dependent variables in econometric models in order to examine the impact that certain macroeconomic variables gdp growth inflation employment and real interest rates have on inequality the results reveal that gdp growth employment rate and real interest rate are the macroeconomic factors with greater impact in shaping personal income distribution in developing countries

gender and rural non farm entrepreneurship despite their increasing prominence in policy debates little is known about gender inequities in non agricultural labor market outcomes in rural areas using matched household enterprise community data sets from bangladesh ethiopia indonesia and sri lanka this paper documents and analyzes gender differences in the individual portfolio choice and productivity of non farm entrepreneurship except for ethiopia women are less likely than men to become nonfarm entrepreneurs women s nonfarm entrepreneurship isn t strongly correlated with household composition or educational attainment but is especially prevalent amongst women who are the head of their household female led firms are much smaller and less productive on average though gender differences in productivity vary dramatically across countries mean differences in log output per worker suggest that male firms are roughly 10 times as productive as female firms in bangladesh three times as those in ethiopia and twice as those in sri lanka by contrast no significant differences in labor productivity were detected in indonesia differences in output per worker are overwhelmingly accounted for by sorting by sector and size they can t be explained by differences in capital intensity human capital or the local investment climate nor by increasing returns to scale

measuring poverty in a growing world or measuring growth in a poor world the extent to which growth reduces global poverty has been disputed for 30 years although there are better data than ever before controversies are not resolved a major problem is that consumption measured from household surveys which is used to measure poverty grows less rapidly than consumption measured in national accounts in the world as a whole and in large countries particularly india china and the united states in consequence measured poverty has fallen less rapidly than appears warranted by measured growth in poor countries one plausible cause is that richer households are less likely to participate in surveys but growth in the national accounts is also upward biased and consumption in the national accounts contains large and rapidly growing items that are not consumed by the poor and not included in surveys so it is possible for consumption of the poor to grow less rapidly than national consumption without any increase in measured inequality current statistical procedures in poor

on testing the scale sensitivity of poverty measures past tests of the sensitivity of aggregate poverty measures to changes in equivalence scales can be very sensitive to the arbitrary choice of the pivotal reference demographics it is recommended that future tests should use demographics typical of people living near the poverty line as their reference

societal poverty a relative and relevant measure poverty lines are typically higher in richer countries and lower in poorer ones reflecting the relative nature of national assessments of who is considered poor in many high income countries poverty lines are explicitly relative set as a share of mean or median income despite systematic variation in how countries define poverty global poverty counts are based on fixed value lines to reflect national assessments of poverty in a global headcount of poverty this paper proposes a societal poverty line the proposed societal poverty line is derived from 699 harmonized national poverty lines and has an intercept of 1 per day and a relative gradient of 50 percent of median national income or consumption the societal poverty line is more closely aligned with national definitions of poverty than other proposed relative lines by this relative measure societal poverty has fallen steadily since 1990 but at a much slower pace than absolute extreme poverty

growth still is good for the poor incomes in the poorest two quintiles on average increase at the same rate as overall average incomes this is because in a global dataset spanning 118 countries over the past four decades changes in the share of income of the poorest quintiles are generally small and uncorrelated with changes in average income the variation in changes in quintile shares is also small relative to the variation in growth in average incomes implying that the latter accounts for most of the variation in income growth in the poorest quintiles these findings hold across most regions and time periods and when conditioning on a variety of country level factors that may matter for growth and inequality changes this evidence confirms the central importance of economic growth for poverty reduction and illustrates the difficulty of identifying specific macroeconomic policies that are significantly associated with the relative growth rates of those in the poorest quintiles

estimating a transaction price for new automobiles for over 2 decades researchers have analyzed the overall demand for automobiles brems 1956 chow 1957 stone and rowe 1957 houthakker and taylor 1966 smith 1975 johnson 1978 while several researchers have begun to disaggregate automobile demand in response to the development of distinct submarkets blomqvist and haessel 1978 carlson 1978 lave and train 1979 they in a manner similar to earlier aggregate studies continue to assume that price is exogenous for instance smith in modeling the demand for new cars assumes the supply of new cars is perfectly elastic at a price exogenously fixed by the manufacturer smith 1975 p 14 yet over 2 decades ago jung 1959 1960 reported the survey results of chicago automobile dealers indicating that transactions prices and list prices differed significantly the degree of concentration in automobile manufacturing may have led previous researchers to ignore the fact that the transaction price for new automobiles is not set by the manufacturer but as jung reported is determined in a monopolistically competitive dealer market where the monopoly element is a consequence of less than perfect information arrow 1975 in a recent article in this journal carlson 1978 recognizes that list price and transaction price may researchers in analyzing the demand for automobiles have assumed that the price is fixed by the manufacturer and therefore can be considered to be exogenous in market studies this assumption contradicts earlier findings that transaction prices and list prices differed significantly this paper develops a model estimating the transaction prices of new automobiles it is argued that transaction prices for new automobiles are market determined transaction prices are found to be a function of dealer inventories and several other variables dealer inventories measured in terms of daily selling rates are used in the model as a proxy for market conditions

the developing world is poorer than we thought but no less successful in the fight against poverty a new data set on national poverty lines is combined with new price data and almost 700 household surveys to estimate absolute poverty measures for the developing world we find that 25 of the population lived in poverty in 2005 as judged by what poverty typically means in the world s poorest countries this is higher than past estimates substantial overall progress is still indicated the corresponding poverty rate was 52 in 1981 but progress was very uneven across regions the trends over time and regional profile are robust to various changes in methodology though precise counts are more sensitive

global income distributions and inequality 1993 and 2000 incorporating country level inequality modeled with beta distributions abstract using a method of moments estimator flexible three parameter beta distributions are fitted to aggregate country level income data to overcome an untenable assumption of previous studies that persons within each income group receive the same income regional and global income distributions are derived as weighted mixtures of country specific distributions analytical expressions for gini and theil s measures of inequality at country regional and global levels are derived in terms of the parameters of the beta distributions application to data for 91 countries in 1993 and 2000 reveals a high degree of global inequality with evidence of declining inequality largely attributable to growth in china

can the west save africa in the new millennium the western aid effort toward africa has surged due to writ ings by well known economists a celebrity mass advocacy campaign and decisions by western leaders to make africa a major foreign policy priority this survey contrasts the predominant transformational approach west comprehensively saves africa to occasional swings to a marginal approach west takes one small step at a time to help individual africans evaluation of one step at a time initiatives is generally easier than that of transformational ones either through controlled experiments although these have been oversold or simple case studies where it is easier to attribute outcomes to actions we see two themes emerge from the literature survey 1 escalation as each successive western transformational effort has yielded disappointing results as judged at least by stylized facts since again the econometrics are shaky the response has been to try an even more ambitious effort and 2 the cycle of ideas rather than a progressive testing and discarding of failed ideas we see a cycle in aid ideas in many areas in africa with ideas going out of fashion only to come back again later after some lapse long enough to forget the previous disappointing experience both escalation and cyclicality of ideas are symptomatic of the lack of learning that seems to be characteristic of the transfor mational approach in contrast the marginal approach has had some successes in improving the well being of individual africans such as the dramatic fall in mortality

putting the 2007 2008 global food crisis in longer term perspective trends in staple food affordability in urban zambia and kenya abstract staple food prices in cities in eastern and southern africa rose sharply between late 2007 and early 2009 leading to estimates of massive increases in food insecurity and hunger however in assessing the impacts of soaring food prices on urban consumers access to food it is important to consider food price changes relative to changes in per capita incomes in this study we use the case studies of zambia and kenya where data are available on food prices wage rates incomes and other indicators of urban purchasing power to answer two main questions i how did staple food purchasing power at the height of the food price crisis compare to levels over the last 15 years and ii did the food price crisis exacerbate an already declining trend in staple food purchasing power or did it reverse a trend of stable or improving staple food affordability results indicate that staple food purchasing power in urban zambia and kenya improved markedly in the 10 12 years prior to the food price crisis most measures of bread and maize meal affordability at the start of the crisis in 2007 were at levels 1 0 4 3 times higher than in the mid 1990s these gains for urban consumers were slashed but not completely reversed during the food crisis between 2007 and 2009 maize meal and bread were still more affordable in urban zambia than all periods between 1994 and 2003 in urban kenya staple food purchasing power as of 2008 2009 was comparable to levels in 2000 2001 2004 2005 according to some indicators while other measures suggest that the food price crisis reduced staple food purchasing power to levels lower than any other year in the period 1994 1995 2007 2008

evaluating china s poverty alleviation program a regression discontinuity approach abstract this paper evaluates the impact of the 8 7 plan the second wave of china s poverty alleviation program on rural income growth at the county level over the program s disbursement period from 1994 to 2000 program participation was largely determined by whether a county s pre program income fell below a given poverty line hence a regression discontinuity approach is employed to estimate the causal effects of the program using a panel data set we find that the 8 7 plan resulted in an approximately 38 percent increase in rural income for counties that were treated between 1994 and 2000 our empirical results also suggest the important role of initial endowments in the path toward economic development

using repeated cross sections to explore movements into and out of poverty movements in and out of poverty are of core interest to both policymakers and economists yet the panel data needed to analyze such movements are rare in this paper the authors build on the methodology used to construct poverty maps to show how repeated cross sections of household survey data can allow inferences to be made about movements in and out of poverty they illustrate that the method permits the estimation of bounds on mobility and provide non parametric and parametric approaches to obtaining these bounds they test how well the method works on data sets for vietnam and indonesia where we are able to compare our method to true panel estimates the results are sufficiently encouraging to offer the prospect of some limited basic insights into mobility and poverty duration in settings where historically it was judged that the data necessary for such analysis were unavailable

lights camera income illuminating the national accounts household surveys debate gdp per capita and household survey means present conflicting pictures of the rate of economic development in emerging countries one of the areas in which the national accounts household surveys debate is key is the measurement of developing world poverty we propose a data driven method to assess the relative quality of gdp per capita and survey means by comparing them to the evolution of satellite recorded nighttime lights our main assumption which is robust to a variety of specification checks is that the measurement error in nighttime lights is unrelated to the measurement errors in either national accounts or survey means we obtain estimates of weights on national accounts and survey means in an optimal proxy for true income these weights are very large for national accounts and very modest for survey means we conclusively reject the null hypothesis that the optimal weight on surveys is greater than the optimal weight on national accounts and we generally fail to reject the null hypothesis that the optimal weight on surveys is zero additionally we provide evidence that national accounts are good indicators of desirable outcomes for the poor such as longer life expectancy better education and access to safe water and we show that surveys appear to perform worse in developing countries that are richer and that are growing faster therefore we interpret our results as providing support for estimates of world poverty that are based on national accounts jel code i32

trade openness and economic growth panel data evidence from sub saharan africa this paper uses an instrumental variables approach to estimate the relationship between trade openness and economic growth in sub saharan africa instrumental variables estimates show that economic growth has a significant negative contemporaneous effect on trade openness while trade openness has a significant positive effect on economic growth a 1 percentage point increase in the ratio of trade over gdp is associated with a short run increase in growth of approximately 0 5 in a given year the cumulative long run effect on the level of gdp per capita is larger reaching about 2

towards integrated social ecological sustainability indicators exploring the contribution and gaps in existing global data sustainable development goals sdgs which recognise the interconnections between social economic and ecological systems have ignited new interest in indicators able to integrate trends in and

the mdgs and exit time the case of the philippines this article evaluates whether the philippines will be able to halve the incidence of poverty between 1990 and 2015 using the concept of exit time and household level data we find that the philippines as a whole will not be able to comply with target 1 of the millennium development goals mdgs although 15 of its provinces will be able to do so these provinces are closer to manila characterized by higher per capita expenditure growth rates and had lower incidence of poverty in 1988 this suggests the importance of policies to mitigate the regional disparity in achieving the mdgs

agriculture reform and food crisis in syria impacts on poverty and inequality abstract the paper pursues a twofold objective from a methodological viewpoint it shows how to carry out an impacts evaluation of exogenous shocks on poverty and inequality in a context characterised by out of equilibrium poorly adjusting markets as it is the case in many developing countries using a social accounting matrix framework from an empirical viewpoint it provides an assessment of how the cereal price spikes of 2007 2008 and the global recession of 2008 2009 have impacted the welfare of syrian households and how did they compound with the on going agricultural sector liberalisation implemented by the government of syria since mid 1990s this will contribute to shed some lights on the economic background behind the spreading of unrest across the country over the last couple of years or so the results show that liberalisation impacts are very different and largely affected by the adopted budget closure rules while reforms aiming at reducing agricultural market distortions such as production subsidies and price support for strategic crops could generally have a positive effect on growth poverty and inequality the elimination of food security interventions such as food stamp schemes determines an adverse distributional impact against rural household and an increase of poverty the recent macroeconomic shocks food price crisis and the global recession determined a generalised poverty increase and showed an income distribution bias against rural households three fundamental policy implications can be drawn by this study first the liberalisation of agricultural sector shows a significant growth potential and is likely to determine positive effects on poverty through a generalised increase of incomes as well as public budget savings that could be used for pursuing other policy goals second in the short run there is a structural trade off between equity improvements and poverty alleviation the policy options that will more likely reduce absolute poverty show undesirable distributive biases both on overall inequality and on rural households vis a vis urban households third the reform should include a careful design of the use of budget savings mainly to address equity goals that are likely to be generated in the short run by liberalisation

the developing world s bulging but vulnerable middle class summary western notions of the middle class are of little obvious relevance to developing countries instead the middle class is identified here as those living above the median poverty line of developing countries even if still poor by rich country standards over 1990 2005 economic growth and global distributional shifts allowed an extra 1 2 billion people to join the developing world s middle class four fifths came from asia and half from china many of those in this new middle class remain fairly close to poverty only 100 million of the 1 2 billion would not be considered poor in any developing county economic growth typically came with an expanding middle class

measuring and understanding behavior welfare and poverty angus deaton delivered his prize lecture on tuesday 8 december 2015 at the aula magna stockholm university these are the lecture slides this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

the world distribution of income falling poverty and convergence period we estimate the world distribution of income by integrating individual income distributions for 138 countries between 1970 and 2000 country distributions are constructed by combining national accounts gdp per capita to anchor the mean with survey data to pin down the dispersion poverty rates and head counts are reported for four specific poverty lines rates in 2000 were between one third and one half of what they were in 1970 for all four lines there were between 250 and 500 million fewer poor in 2000 than in 1970 we estimate eight indexes of income inequality implied by our world distribution of income all of them show reductions in global inequality during the 1980s and 1990s

growth elasticity of poverty direct estimates from recent data using recent poverty data for developing countries elasticity of 2 poverty headcount with respect to the growth of gross domestic product gdp per capita is directly calculated for the 1990s and the 2000s the global estimate is around 0 84 which is much smaller in absolute magnitude than what some highly influential studies have reported or used for the poverty dense south asia region the elasticity is of the order of 0 22 which is a dramatic contrast from the previous estimates for india where the number of poor people is by far the largest of any country and where the poverty rate is higher than even in sub saharan africa ssa the elasticity is of the order of 0 13 which is an even bigger contrast from earlier studies policymakers and researchers are urged to keep these estimates in mind while judging the likely effect of income growth on poverty and to discount poverty reduction claims based on higher elasticity estimates that have been reported or used in many influential studies i

estimating the scale and geography of global poverty now and in the future how much difference do method and assumptions make summary estimates of the historic and future scale and location or geography of global poverty by income expenditure have a long and contentious history in recent projections made on global poverty methods and assumptions vary so widely it is impossible to compare studies in a systematic way even on their estimates of current poverty in light of this we discuss the methodological issues arising and use a custom built model to provide a new consistent set of long run estimates of global poverty to show the impact of different methods and assumptions on the scale and location of global poverty

entrepreneurship as a solution to poverty individuals living in poverty remain a critical issue this special issue focuses on how entrepreneurship can help to solve such poverty rather than viewing those in poverty as a market for goods the solution lies in understanding how to help those living in poverty create their own businesses ultimately entrepreneurship among those in poverty will create a long lasting solution to their poverty herein we initially examine the extant knowledge about entrepreneurship we then examine where future research on this important topic should move finally we introduce the five articles that make up this special issue these five articles came from the initial 71 submissions and enhance our knowledge about entrepreneurship as a pathway to reducing poverty

growth inequality and social welfare cross country evidence social welfare functions that assign weights to individuals based on their income levels can be used to document the relative importance of growth and inequality changes for changes in social welfare in a large panel of industrial and developing countries over the past 40 years most of the cross country and over time variation in changes in social welfare is due to changes in average incomes in contrast the changes in inequality observed during this period are on average much smaller than changes in average incomes are uncorrelated with changes in average incomes and have contributed relatively little to changes in social welfare

market shares in the uk passenger car market marketing expenditure and price effects 1975 80 1984 market shares in the uk passenger car market marketing expenditure and price effects 1975 80 applied economics vol 16 no 4 pp 611 632

is it enough evidence from a natural experiment in india s agriculture markets access to information and communication technologies icts such as mobile phone networks is widely known to improve market efficiency in this paper we examine whether access to timely and accurate information provided through ict applications has any additional impact using a detailed data set from reuters market light rml a text message service in india that provides daily price information to market participants we find that this information reduces the geographic price dispersion of crops in rural communities by an average of 12 over and above access to mobile phone technology and other means of communication to identify the effect of information on price dispersion we exploit a natural experiment where bulk text messages were banned unexpectedly across india for 12 days in 2010 we find that besides reducing geographic price dispersion rml also increases the rate at which prices converge across india over time we discuss the implications of this for development organizations and informat

agricultural distortions in sub saharan africa trade and welfare indicators 1961 to 2004 for decades agricultural price and trade policies in sub saharan africa have hampered farmers contributions to economic growth and poverty reduction although there has been much policy reform over the past two decades the injections of agricultural development funding together with ongoing regional and global trade negotiations have brought distortionary policies under the spotlight once again a key question asked of those policies is how much are they still reducing national economic welfare and trade economy wide models are able to address that question but they are not available for many poor countries even where they are typically they apply to just one particular previous year and so are unable to provide trends in effects over time this paper provides a partial equilibrium alternative to economy wide modeling by drawing on a modification of so called trade restrictiveness indexes to provide theoretically precise indicators of the trade and welfare effects of agricultural policy distortions to producer and consumer prices over the past half century the authors generate time series of country level indexes as well as africa wide aggregates they also provide annual commodity market indexes for the region and a sense of the relative importance of the key policy instruments used

where do the poor live this paper argues that the distribution of global poverty has changed and that most of the world s poor no longer live in countries officially classified as low income countries lics it is estimated that the majority of the world s poor or up to a billion people live in middle income countries mics this pattern is largely as a result of the recent graduation into the mic category of a number of populous countries the paper discusses the trends in the distribution of global poverty and opens a wider discussion on the potential implications for aid and development cooperation

the renminbi and poor country growth the renminbi and poor country growth discussions on how best to exit from global imbalances to create a more balanced world economy have ignored the impact on poor countries of proposals to redress these imbalances this paper aims at filling that gap it gauges the degree of renminbi rmb undervaluation presents evidence on rmb undervaluation and china s gdp growth rate surveys the role of the real effective exchange rate both its level and its stability over time for underpinning growth in developing countries especially in large dual economies such as china and india and finally presents new evidence on growth linkages between china and poor countries for the last two decades and surveys literature on potential displacement effects of rmb appreciation the analysis allows broad conclusions to be drawn about the potential developing country beneficiaries and losers from various renminbi adjustment scenarios in the forthcoming years

foreign investment and ethics how to contribute to social responsibility by doing business in less developed countries do foreign direct investment fdi and international business ventures promote positive social and economic development in emerging nations this question will always prove contentious first the impacts differ according to context second the social consequences and spillover effects of knowledge diffusion and technology sharing may be limited and hard to measure third contributions to enhancing social responsibility and improving living standards in host countries are delayed in effect causally complex and also hard to measure outcomes often critically depend on collaboration of governments international institutions the business world and non governmental organizations ngos research in this area is challenging and requires interdisciplinary collaboration between economists financial experts sociologists ethicists and other specialists this paper explores 1 the evidence to support the proposition that fdi and international business improve social conditions in less developed countries and 2 how these improvements are linked to strategies of corporate social responsibility csr and ethical business practice the paper draws insights from development fdi poverty alleviation and bottom of the pyramid bop literature applications are demonstrated using examples from poverty stricken areas of sub saharan africa the paper attempts not only to argue theoretically but also to provide practical evidence the approach is simultaneously descriptive analytical and prescriptive in order to address a wide audience it also highlights issues and trends for further academic research and presents the viewpoint that some limitations lie in the nature of ethics frameworks widely referenced in business and that these often fail to consider the compatibility of ethical constructs with relevant incentives in this vein we explore the application of homann s framework for advantage and incentive based ethics

world welfare is rising estimation using nonparametric bounds on welfare measures abstract i take a new approach to measuring world inequality and welfare over time by constructing robust bounds for these series instead of imposing parametric assumptions to compute point estimates i derive sharp bounds on the atkinson inequality index that are valid for any underlying distribution of income conditional on given fractile shares and gini coefficients while the bounds are too wide to reject the hypothesis that world inequality may have risen i show that world welfare rose unambiguously between 1970 and 2006 this conclusion is valid for alternative methods of dealing with countries and years with missing surveys alternative survey harmonization procedures alternative gdp series or if the inequality surveys used systematically underreport the income of the very rich or suffer from nonresponse bias

how sensitive is regional poverty measurement in latin america to the value of the poverty line this paper contributes to the methodological literature on the estimation of international poverty lines for latin america based on the official poverty lines chosen by the latin american governments and commonly used in the public debate the paper exploits a comprehensive data set of 86 up to date official extreme and total urban poverty lines across 18 countries in latin america as well as the recently updated values of the national purchasing power parity conversion factors from the 2011 international comparison program and a set of harmonized household surveys by using 3 and 6 us dollars per person a day at 2011 ppp as the extreme and total poverty lines for latin america this paper illustrates the sensitiveness of poverty rates to changes of the values of the poverty lines as a result of the recent update of the ppp values the period of reference and the relative cost of living across the countries in the region the poverty lines with the 2011 ppp values lead to an increase in total poverty rates in latin america when compared to the 2005 ppp values while they leave the extreme poverty rate unaffected in general country specific poverty rankings remain fairly stable to the values of the poverty lines selected

global inequality when unequal countries create unequal people abstract current global inequality measures assume that national mean income does not matter to economic welfare at given household income as measured in surveys the paper questions that assumption on theoretical and empirical grounds and finds that prominent stylized facts about global inequality are not robust at one extreme theories of relative deprivation yield nationalistic measures whereby global inequality is average within country inequality which is rising however other theories and evidence point instead to the benefits of living in a richer country parameter values consistent with research on global subjective wellbeing imply higher inequality than prevailing measures though falling since 1990

the impact of food inflation on urban poverty and its monetary cost some back of the envelope calculations this paper uses a sample of 73 developing countries to estimate the change in the cost of alleviating urban poverty brought about by the recent increase in food prices this cost is approximated by the change in the poverty deficit that is the variation in financial resources required to eliminate poverty under perfect targeting the results show that for most countries the cost represents less than 0 1 percent of gross domestic product however in the most severely affected it may exceed 3 percent in all countries the change in the poverty deficit is mostly due to the negative real income effect of those households that were poor before the price shock while the cost attributable to new households falling into poverty is negligible thus in countries where transfer mechanisms with effective targeting already exist the most cost effective strategy would be to scale up such programs rather than designing tools to identify the new poor

does government spending affect income poverty a meta regression analysis summary this paper presents the results of a meta regression analysis of the relationship between government spending and income poverty with a focus on low and middle income countries through a comprehensive search and screening process we identify a total of 19 cross country econometric studies containing 169 estimates of this relationship we find that the size and direction of the estimated relationship are affected by a range of factors most notably the composition of the sample used for estimation the control variables included in the regression model and the type of government spending overall we find no clear evidence that higher government spending has played a significant role in reducing income poverty in low and middle income countries this is consistent with the view that fiscal policy plays a much more limited redistributive role in developing countries in comparison with oecd countries in addition we find that the relationship between government spending and poverty is on average less negative for countries in sub saharan africa and more negative for countries in eastern europe and central asia compared to other regions we also find that the relationship is less negative for government consumption spending in comparison with other sectors finally we find some evidence indicating the possibility of publication bias

second generation fiscal federalism the implications of fiscal incentives abstract first generation fiscal federalism fgff studies the performance of decentralized systems under the assumption of benevolent social planners second generation fiscal federalism sgff studies performance based on the fiscal and political incentives facing subnational officials the paper focuses on three aspects of sgff first it considers the design of intergovernmental transfers while fgff emphasizes correcting vertical and horizontal equity sgff emphasizes the importance of fiscal incentives for producing local economic prosperity sgff extends fgff approaches by showing how non linear transfer systems can produce both equalization and high marginal fiscal incentives to produce local economic growth second the paper raises the fiscal incentive approach showing how different tax systems produce different fiscal incentives for political officials to choose policies third the paper discusses the interaction of democracy and fiscal federalism

china s soaring vehicle population even greater than forecasted abstract china s vehicle population is widely forecasted to grow 6 11 per year into the foreseeable future barring aggressive policy intervention or a collapse of the chinese economy we suggest that those forecasts are conservative we analyze the historical vehicle growth patterns of seven of the largest vehicle producing countries at comparable times in their motorization history we estimate vehicle growth rates for this analogous group of countries to have 13 17 per year roughly twice the rate forecasted for china by others applying these higher growth rates to china results in the total vehicle fleet reaching considerably higher volumes than forecasted by others implying far higher global oil use and carbon emissions than projected by the international energy agency and others

global extreme poverty rates for children adults and the elderly chen and ravallion s estimates of global extreme poverty rates are well known this note by considering how these rates vary by age group reaches two important and policy relevant conclusions and emphasizes a central avenue for future research the first is that child extreme poverty rates are 50 higher than adult ones and almost twice those of the elderly this result depends on assuming that all individuals in a household have the same resource needs and no economies of scale exist as in the world bank standard approach conversely if conservative estimates of economies of scale and individual discount factors are adopted global extreme poverty rates and the child adult gap are much smaller than the chen and ravallion estimates these findings highlight the policy importance of research efforts towards understanding how needs vary within a household and with its size

the effects of risk and shocks on non farm enterprise development in rural ethiopia summary this paper assesses the impact of risk and shocks on non farm enterprise development in rural ethiopia using a matched household enterprise community dataset augmented with precipitation based measures of risk the likelihood of running a non farm firm and the returns to running such firms co vary with agricultural productivity shocks diversification into non farm activities thus provides limited protection against fluctuations in agricultural performance this may explain why ex ante risk has no impact on the likelihood of running a non farm firm it nonetheless hampers non farm enterprise development by repressing investment and inducing sorting into less capital intensive activities

on the measurement of poverty official statistics in the united states and the united kingdom show a rise in poverty between the 1970 s and the 1980 s but scepticism has been expressed with regard to these findings in particular the methods employed in the measurement of poverty have been the subject of criticism this paper re examines three basic issues in measuring poverty the choice of the poverty line the index of poverty and the relation between poverty and inequality one general theme running through the paper is that there is a diversity of judgments which enter the measurement of poverty and that it is necessary to recognize these explicitly in the procedures adopted there is likely to be disagreement about the choice of poverty line affecting both its level and its structure in this situation we may only be able to make comparisons and not to measure differences and the comparisons may lead only to a partial rather than a complete ordering the first section of the paper discusses the stochastic dominance conditions which allow such comparisons illustrating their application by reference to data for the united states the choice of poverty measure has been the subject of an extensive literature and a variety of measures have been proposed in the second section of the paper a different approach is suggested considering a class of measures satisfying certain general properties and seeking conditions under which all members of the class which includes many of those proposed give the same ranking those sceptical about measures of poverty often assert that poverty and inequality are being confounded the third section of the paper distinguishes four different viewpoints and relates them to theories of justice and views of social welfare

microlending in emerging economies building a new line of inquiry from the ground up the world s poor may be the last great frontier in international business international microlenders are increasingly tapping into this emerging opportunity by extending small business loans to millions of borrowers however to date there is very limited understanding of this domain from an international business perspective using qualitative case studies developed in guatemala and the dominican republic we probe the causes and consequences of high performance and business failure for microloan recipients the analysis of these cases led to the development of six testable propositions focused on the behavior of borrowers whose loans populate the portfolios of international microlenders our research aims to lay a foundation in international business for future research on microlending

can microfinance reach the poorest evidence from a community managed microfinance intervention summary reaching the poorest is an important objective in many development interventions and microfinance is no exception we review performance indicators for effectiveness of targeting described in the literature and suggest a new metric in order to account for extent and severity of poverty as well as the income distribution among the poor when applying this to a panel dataset from a community managed microfinance intervention in northern malawi we find regressive targeting participants are less poor than the general population in the area in addition we provide suggestions as to when and why the poor exit the project

why don t we see poverty convergence average living standards are converging among developing countries and faster growing economies see more progress against poverty yet we do not find poverty convergence countries starting with higher poverty rates do not see higher proportionate rates of poverty reduction the paper tries to explain why analysis of a new dataset suggests that at given mean consumption high initial poverty has an adverse effect on consumption growth and also makes growth less poverty reducing thus for many poor countries the growth advantage of starting out with a low mean is lost due to a high incidence of poverty jel d63 i31 i32 o15

measuring energy poverty focusing on what matters abstract the provision of modern energy services is recognised as a critical foundation for sustainable development and is central to the everyday lives of people effective policies to dramatically expand modern energy access need to be grounded in a robust information base metrics that can be used for comparative purposes and to track progress towards targets therefore represent an essential support tool this paper reviews the relevant literature and discusses the adequacy and applicability of existing instruments to measure energy poverty drawing on those insights it proposes a new composite index to measure energy poverty both the associated methodology and initial results for several african countries are discussed whereas most existing indicators and composite indices focus on assessing the access to energy or the degree of development related to energy our new index the multidimensional energy poverty index mepi focuses on the deprivation of access to modern energy services it captures both the incidence and intensity of energy poverty and provides a new tool to support policy making

global poverty estimates a sensitivity analysis summary current estimates of global poverty vary substantially across studies we undertake a sensitivity analysis to highlight the importance of methodological choices by measuring global poverty using different data sources parametric and nonparametric estimation methods and multiple poverty lines our results indicate that estimates of global poverty vary significantly when they are based alternately on data from household surveys versus national accounts but are relatively consistent across estimation methods the decline in poverty over the past decade is found to be robust across methodological choices

inequality among world citizens 1820 1992 this paper investigates the distribution of well being among world citizens during the last two centuries the estimates show that inequality of world distribution of income worsened from the beginning of the 19th century to world war ii and after that seems to have stabilized or to have grown more slowly in the early 19th century most inequality was due to differences within countries later it was due to differences between countries inequality in longevity also increased during the 19th century but then was reversed in the second half of the 20th century perhaps mitigating the failure of income inequality to improve in the last decades jel d31 f0 n0 o0