the british model in britain failing slowly in 1990 britain reorganised its electricity industry to run on competitive lines the british reforms are widely regarded as successful and the model used provides the basis for reforms of electricity industries worldwide the main reason for this perception of success is major reductions in the real price of electricity with no reduction in service quality this paper examines whether the reputation of the british reforms is justified it concludes that the reputation is not justified and that serious fundamental problems are beginning to emerge the central question is have the british reforms resulted in the creation of efficient wholesale and retail markets on this criterion the reforms have failed the wholesale market is dominated by obscure long term contracts privileged access to the market and self dealing within integrated generator retailers leaving the spot markets with minimal liquidity and unreliable prices the failure to develop an efficient wholesale market places the onus on consumers to impose competitive forces on electricity companies by switching regularly small consumers will not do this and they are paying too much for their power for the future there is a serious risk that the electricity industry will become a weakly regulated oligopoly with a veneer of competition

the reasonableness of non constant discounting abstract the typical method for valuing the future goods and harms of a public policy alternative is by means of a constant annual discount rate this paper examines the reasonableness for public policy analysis of non constant discounting methods that unlike constant discounting can accord considerable importance to outcomes in the distant future we examine temporal consistency and economic efficiency as reasons for the use of constant discounting and we argue that these reasons do not apply for a public policy choice whose effects are long range and irreversible

evaluating income streams a decision analysis approach most important decision problems virtually all capital investiments and planning situations involve risky cash flows with uncertainties that are resolved over time in most of these problems the decision maker has access to financial markets and may borrow and lend to smooth consumption over time yet because of the difficulty of incorporating these borrowing and lending decisions into the evaluation models these opportunities are rarely explicitly modeled in decision and risk analyses of these investments in this paper we study the errors induced by failing to account for these borrowing and lending decisions and we develop extensions to the standard decision and risk analysis procedures that given certain market and preference assumptions take these borrowing and lending opportunities into account without overburdening the evaluation models

the ams in agricultural trade negotiations a review abstract this article reviews the role of the aggregate measure of support ams in the agricultural trade negotiations of the uruguay round contrary to expectations at the start of these negotiations the ams only occupies a subsidiary position in the final agreement in order to explain this first an economic analysis is presented of the producer subsidy equivalent pse the basic ams concept in the gatt discussions secondly the political ams debate is described and analysed using information from unpublished gatt documents although the pse concept is based on simple assumptions its measurement already meets a number of difficult problems policy coverage product coverage external reference prices currency once these are solved the concept may offer a brief insight into actual governmental support in agriculture however the calculations do not provide a sound measure of the trade distortions caused by agricultural policies mainly for that reason the idea of a pure aggregated approach based on the ams proved unsuccessful in the negotiations instead the contracting parties accepted the framework of making binding agreements on three separate areas internal support market access and export support while important and very specific commitments were made in the areas of agricultural imports and exports the ams has only found application in the internal support area

willingness to pay and the distribution of risk and wealth willingness to pay wtp most economists believe is an appropriate benefits metric for government expenditure and regulatory policies that reduce risks to human life it depends however on the distribution of risk and wealth currently society s expenditures overemphasize concentrated risks say after the fact treatment as opposed to prevention a dead anyway effect complements excess attention to intense interests in explaining this our normative criterion for spending on risk reduction is what a rational albeit uninsured individual confronting lotteries on future risks to life and wealth would choose for himself this requires correcting wtp to eliminate the dead anyway effect but continues to reflect that wealth enhances the utility of living

anomalies in intertemporal choice evidence and an interpretation research on decision making under uncertainly has been strongly influenced by the documentation of numerous expected utility eu anomalies behaviors that violate the expected utility axioms the relative lack of progress on the closely related topic of intertemporal choice is partly due to the absence of an analogous set of discounted utility du anomalies we enumerate a set of du anomalies analogous to the eu anomalies and propose a model that accounts for the anomalies as well as other intertemporal choice phenomena incompatible with du we discuss implications for savings behavior estimation of discount rates and choice framing effects

discounting of life saving and other nonmonetary effects cost effectiveness analysts generally assume that preferences over time are such that streams of monetary and nonmonetary program effects can be reduced to one discounted sum of monetary costs and another of effects it is known that if the nonmonetary effects can be cashed out in a way that does not vary with time then the rates of discount for monetary and nonmonetary effects have to be equal this paper presents a more compelling argument for the equality of those rates when hard to monetize benefits such as life saving are involved it shows that if the ability to produce the nonmonetary effect does not diminish too quickly over time failure to discount benefits implies that programs are always improved by delay in general discounting benefits and costs at different rates can lead to peculiar results

post neoliberal electricity market re reforms in argentina diverging from market prescriptions this paper focuses upon the policy and institutional change that has taken place within the argentine electricity market since the country s economic and social crisis of 2001 2 as one of the first less developed countries ldcs to liberalise and privatise its electricity industry argentina has since moved away from the orthodox market model after consumer prices were frozen by the government in early 2002 when the national currency was devalued by 70 although its reforms were widely praised during the 1990s the electricity market has undergone a number of interventions ostensibly to keep consumer prices low and to avert the much discussed energy crisis caused by a dearth of new investment combined with rising demand levels this paper explores how the economic crisis and its consequences have both enabled and legitimised these policy and institutional amendments while drawing upon the specifics of the post neoliberal market re reforms to consider the extent to which the government appears to be moving away from market based prescriptions in addition this paper contributes to sector specific understandings of how despite these changes neoliberal ideas and assumptions continue to dominate argentine public policy well beyond the postcrisis era

pses and the mix of measures to support farm incomes summary and conclusions in summary the mix of support provided to agriculture does matter when pses are to be cut across the board reductions in individual components of pses will have different implications for output exports land values and employment in different countries these differences can be systematically related to the type of instruments used to support agriculture for example cutting subsidies on an input such as fertilizer can result in greater long run reductions in output exports and employment in agriculture than would cuts in output subsidies of equal magnitude these differences may make it attractive for countries engaging in partial liberalization to change the mix of subsidies even as they reduce their aggregate pse in so doing they may be able to lessen or even eliminate some of the deleterious effects of reduced farm support for example the united states could maintain the demand for farm labour while cutting its aggregate pse in half by shifting the mix of farm support towards selected input subsidies by contrast there appears to be little incentive for substituting export subsidies for output subsidies under the pure pse approach proposed by professor tangermann et al this is because such a switch would have to be accompanied by further reductions in budgetary outlays in order to avoid exceeding the pse target agreed in negotiations

the european union enlargement the case of agriculture in slovenia abstract the costs and benefits of eu accession for slovenian agriculture were estimated and discussed by use of comparative and empirical analyses the structural and natural conditions of slovenian agricultural production and policies differ a lot from the european ones the production is small in scale the support is based on price subsidies producer prices are almost at the level of the european prices and hence they are significantly higher than on the world market the pse computed shows that slovenian agricultural support is at the average level of the oecd member states which directly implies the highest agrarian protection level amongst all ceec candidates by using the static deterministic income model for slovenian agriculture the consequences of various scenarios of accession to the common agricultural policy cap have been estimated also indicating the potential policy changes running the present cap the net income in agriculture would increase further changes of cap and restrictive policy towards new member countries would abate the attractiveness of eu for the slovenian agricultural producers the budget benefits of the eu accession could be described as slightly positive their volume depends on negotiations results as well as on the preparation of domestic policy the eu accession and trade liberalisation process by slovenia calls for a reform of domestic agricultural policy

differentiated products and supply controls in the analysis of agricultural policy reform the case of tobacco abstract with a multi market model of the u s tobacco and cigarette industries we analyze the impact of a reduction in the assistance to u s tobacco producers by relaxing production quotas with nonbinding price support and by lowering tariffs on tobacco imports the results show the importance of incorporating differentiated product and supply control assumptions into agricultural policy analysis

challenges in quantitative economic analysis in support of multilateral trade negotiations abstract a wide range of economic analysis of agricultural trade liberalization was performed prior to and during the uruguay round of trade negotiations views differ as to the effectiveness of this research although most would agree that it became less relevant as the negotiations progressed this paper reviews the contributions of economists to the trade liberalization debate with an emphasis on the quantitative assessment of multilateral agricultural trade liberalization with a new round of agricultural trade negotiations scheduled to begin in 1999 it is crucial that the quantitative work required to support these negotiations begin in the near future the authors conclude that the uruguay round outcome provides numerous challenges and opportunities in analyzing the traditional agenda of agricultural trade liberalization in addition new issues will be added to the agenda of the next round of negotiations these include trade and the environment competition policy and intellectual property rights it is important that economists begin to develop a research agenda that can address these issues and become activists in addressing these topics in public forums

a theory of anticipated utility abstract a new theory of cardinal utility with an associated set of axioms is presented it is a generalization of the von neumann morgenstern expected utility theory which permits the analysis of phenomena associated with the distortion of subjective probability

the grin of the cheshire cat abstract throughout the 1990s privatisation liberalisation de regulation in short the british model dominated the policy agenda for electric utilities at the heart of these reforms was a desire to transform the electricity industry from a monopoly into a competitive market so that electricity could be bought and sold like other commodities and products however from 2001 onwards cracks in this policy became visible rather than admit the policy s failings its advocates have tried to fix the model by re introducing planning as planning replaces competition increasingly all that is left of the competitive element of the model is the free market rhetoric the grin of the cheshire cat but when supply security can no longer be guaranteed politicians will be forced to act for developed countries the problems will be significant but they willingly opted for liberalisation and have the financial resources to deal with these problems so sympathy must be limited by contrast developing countries often had little choice but to comply with the wishes of the international financial institutions ifis their industries have often suffered serious under investment in the privatised market it is these countries that the developed world has a duty to help and the ifis must urgently re assess their policies and widely acknowledge their mistakes

your money or your life a prescriptive model for health safety and consumption decisions in this paper we develop a conceptual framework and model for valuing risks to an individual s health and life and to support decision making about investments in health quality of life and safety our treatment of health risks in the model builds on the popular quality adjusted life year qaly framework that balances health quality and length of life issues we extend this framework to consider financial concerns as well as health quality and length of life our model considers uncertainty in income and health and incorporates the decision maker s ability to adjust consumption over time in response to changes in expectations about health and income we use this model to study the optimal tradeoffs between financial gains or losses and improvements or reductions in health or longevity and apply it in two example medical decision problems

life cycle preferences over consumption and health when is cost effectiveness analysis equivalent to cost benefit analysis this paper studies life cycle preferences over consumption and health status we show that cost effectiveness analysis is consistent with cost benefit analysis if the lifetime utility function is additive over time multiplicative in the utility of consumption and the utility of health status and if the utility of consumption is constant over time we derive the conditions under which the lifetime utility function takes this form both under expected utility theory and under rank dependent utility theory which is currently the most important nonexpected utility theory if cost effectiveness analysis is consistent with cost benefit analysis it is possible to derive tractable expressions for the willingness to pay for quality adjusted life years qalys the willingness to pay for qalys depends on wealth remaining life expectancy health status and the possibilities for intertemporal substitution of consumption

on what basis should health be discounted the discount rate to be applied in health care programmes should be based on the time preference rate for health and this same rate should be applied to costs as well due to the limited tradeability of health when eliciting its time preference rate the intertemporal choices must be framed in such a way as to resemble as closely as possible those facing health planners and decision makers

preferences for consumption streams scale invariance correlation aversion and delay aversion under mortality risk lifetime financial decisions often require a decision analyst to elicit a decision maker s preferences for consumption streams in assessing such preferences the analyst might look for a set of reasonable conditions to check when selecting a utility form we provide such a set of conditions and show that they lead to the multiplicative expo power mep utility form some of our conditions involve trade offs under certainty and others relate to choices under uncertainty in the deterministic setting we invoke increasingness continuous differentiability mutual preferential independence and preferential scale invariance in the uncertainty setting we invoke componentwise risk aversion a utility independence condition and correlation aversion we apply the mep utility in a life cycle consumption planning problem under mortality risk in this context we find that the correlation averse mep utility is more realistic than and as tractable as the popular correlation neutral additive power and additive exponential utilities we show that the correlation averse decision maker prefers to consume more in life and leave less behind in death in addition we demonstrate that the correlation averse decision maker is more averse to delaying consumption in the face of mortality risk

survival versus consumption we develop an indirect method to estimate utility and willingness to pay wtp for reductions in the risk of death at various ages using a life cycle model of consumption we assume that an individual sets his consumption level each year so as to maximize his expected lifetime utility alternative assumptions about opportunities for borrowing and annuities characterize two polar types of societies in our robinson crusoe case an individual must be entirely self sufficient and annuities are not available in our perfect markets case an individual can borrow against future earnings and purchase actuarially fair annuities we show that under these assumptions wtp is the sum of livelihood discounted expected future earnings and consumer surplus to illustrate our methods we derive wtp for an average financially independent american man under plausible assumptions the model is calibrated to 1978 earnings e g 18 000 per year for men aged 45 54 with at least some income in the robinson crusoe case wtp increases from 500 000 at age 20 to a peak of 1 250 000 at age 40 and declines to 630 000 at age 60 in the perfect markets case age variations are less pronounced wtp is 1 050 000 at age 20 peaks at 1 070 000 at age 25 and declines to 600 000 at age 60 these results suggest that individuals value risks to their lives at several times the pro rata share of their future earnings

the normative economics of health care finance and provision whereas in many countries the crisis in medical care has been seen in terms of excess spending on health services in the uk it has been seen at least by most of those who manage and work in the nhs as a crisis of underfunding this has come about as the result of the government s successful attempts to restrain the rate of growth of real spending on the nhs which in turn reflects the government s belief that its principal effective weapon against what it perceives to be inefficiency in the nhs is to challenge management itself reformed and to some extent liberated by systematic financial squeezes the same concern has given rise to a host of proposals for reform of the nhs most of which involve a much greater role for private insurance private finance of other kinds such as out of pocket payments and private provision of health care itself

political institutions and international patterns of agricultural protection this paper analyzes the influence of political systems and rights in patterns of agricultural protection across commodities countries and over time four political systems and a qualitative index of political rights account for differences in political institutions the analysis incorporates the effects of development of constraints on tax collection feasibility and of comparative advantages and terms of trade pluralistic systems are associated with higher agricultural protection levels although in a nonlinear fashion access to pluralism appears to be important although further democratization partly dissipates protection copyright 1994 by mit press

measurement of health state utilities for economic appraisal health status measurement for use in economic appraisal of health care programmes is reviewed in this paper with particular emphasis on utility measurement a framework for economic appraisal is presented displaying the various components that must be measured and showing how the three forms of analysis cost effectiveness analysis cost benefit analysis and cost utility analysis relate to the framework and to each other one of the components in the framework is health status it can be measured using ad hoc numeric scales willingness to pay receive or health state utilities the determination of health state utilities is reviewed covering the following issues alternative sources of utilities health state descriptions multi attribute utility approach determination of appropriate subjects utility aggregation and accuracy three measurement techniques for health state utilities are described in detail rating scale standard gamble and time trade off the use of these methods is described for both chronic and temporary health states and for both health states considered better than death and those considered worse than death

challenges when electricity markets face the investment phase abstract deregulation of electricity industry in europe has tended to start with a grace period of energy surplus inherited from the previously expansive coordinated economies and further amplified by better resource utilisation from extended international trade the regulatory challenge has therefore primarily been to allocate existing generation to consumers in an efficient way however as energy demand increases due to economic growth the challenge of providing new capacity surfaces the nordic region which has been a pioneer in internationalising and deregulating electricity is now approaching this stage ahead of most of the rest of europe while the nordic case is characterised by specificities related to hydropower it also raises the more general challenge of capacity expansion under a deregulated market economy the article therefore discusses how the nordic investment challenges of today shed light on more generic challenges that may become more general european challenges of tomorrow in a final section the article discusses policy options available to address the investment price hike challenge the argument is put forward that recursion to some degree of coordinated governance might seem necessary if solutions are confined within large scale technical systems however within the context of a small scale decentralised technological development one may be more confident of competitive solutions

qalys versus hyes what s right and what s wrong a review of the controversy abstract the paper uses an axiomatic approach to the description of individual preferences for health status sequences to resolve the major issues at stake in the recent controversy over qalys versus hyes while the hye accounts for an individual s time preference for health qaly scores based on the time trade off method will generally differ from the number of hyes hyes do not represent preferences for health under risk unless the utility function for reference flows of health is linear collapsing the two step hye assessment procedure into a single step entails a loss of information as regards the utility of a health status sequence although the procedure does represent preferences for health it fails to supply a description in terms of hyes in the case of risk as a remedy a modified hye approach is proposed

habit formation from correlation aversion making plans about how much to consume and how much to invest in risky assets over an uncertain lifetime is a fundamental economic challenge the leading models of this planning problem use either additive or habit forming preferences for the most part these models assume an individual is either correlation neutral or correlation seeking in consumption respectively in this paper we introduce two habit forming correlation averse preference models with these preferences we find closed form solutions to the classic consumption and portfolio planning problem our solutions recommend that a correlation averse decision maker follow a habit in their consumption plans while such habits traditionally have been associated with correlation seeking preferences our model leads to consumption habits from correlation averse preferences