rational household labor supply traditionally household behavior is derived from the maximization of a unique utility function in this paper we propose an alternative approach in which the household is modeled as a two member collectivity taking pareto efficient decisions the consequences of this assumption are analyzed in a three good model in which only total consumption and each member s labor supply are observable if the agents are assumed egoistic i e they are only concerned with their own leisure and consumption it is possible to derive falsifiable conditions upon household labor supplies from both a parametric and nonparametric viewpoint if alternatively agents are altruistic restrictions obtain in the nonparametric context useful interpretation stems from the comparison with the characterization of aggregate demand for a private good economy

central bank design abstract starting with a blank slate how could one design the institutions of a central bank for the united states this paper explores the question of how to design a central bank drawing on the relevant economic literature and historical experiences while staying free from concerns about how the fed got to be what it is today or the short term political constraints it has faced at various times the goal is to provide an opinionated overview that puts forward the trade offs associated with different choices and identifies areas where there are clear messages about optimal central bank design

a bayesian model of voting in juries abstract we model voting in juries as a game of incomplete information allowing jurors to receive a continuum of signals we characterize the unique symmetric equilibrium of the game and give a condition under which no asymmetric equilibria exist under unanimity rule we offer a condition under which unanimity rule exhibits a bias toward convicting the innocent regardless of the size of the jury and give an example showing that this bias can be reversed we prove a jury theorem for our general model as the size of the jury increases the probability of a mistaken judgment goes to zero for every voting rule except unanimity rule for unanimity rule the probability of making a mistake is bounded strictly above zero if and only if there do not exist arbitrarily strong signals of innocence our results explain the asymptotic inefficiency of unanimity rule in finite models and establishes the possibility of asymptotic efficiency a property that could emerge only in a continuous model journal of economic literature classification numbers c72 d72

insiders versus outsiders in monetary policymaking this paper looks at the voting patterns of internal and external members of the mpc to investigate how far there are differences between insiders and outsiders we make three contributions first we assess the extent to which the bank of england internally generated forecasts explain the mpc members voting decisions this is important as generating forecasts on a quarterly basis is a key part of the process used by the bank of england the forecast for inflation is made public in the inflation report while the output gap forecast is not second we use a random coefficient method of estimation in which the parameters of the interest rate rule are allowed but not required to be different across members third we find evidence of some heterogeneity in the intercept a measure of experience on the mpc and the interest rate smoothing parameter but no significant differences in the members reaction to the forecasts of inflation and the output gap this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

monetary policy committees individual and collective reputations this paper looks at the incentives of individual members of a monetary policy committee to gain a reputation for inflationary toughness i show a policy maker can have more or less incentive to build a reputation when part of a group but group policy making leads to higher expected social welfare not publishing individuals votes raises the temptation to inflate and lowers expected social welfare if the culture or rules of a central bank puts more weight on senior policy makers the incentive to build a reputation is greater but expected social welfare may be higher or lower

farm productivity and rural poverty in india armed with new data we return to an old question from the pages of this journal to what extent do india s rural poor share in agricultural growth combining data from 24 household sample surveys spanning 35 years with other sources we estimate a model of the joint determination of consumption poverty measures agricultural wages and food prices we find that higher farm productivity brought both absolute and relative gains to poor rural households a large share of the gains was via wages and prices though these effects took time the benefits to the poor were not confined to those near the poverty line

does a good central banker make a difference the personalities of central bankers moved center stage during the recent financial crisis indeed several central bankers even became superstars in this article we investigate whether superstar central bankers have an impact on economic performance we employ school grades given to central bankers by the financial press defining as superstars those central bankers receiving the top grade first we explain the grades in a probit estimation with measures of economic performance institutional features and personal characteristics second we employ a matching approach to account for the endogeneity of grading with respect to economic performance using entropy balancing we identify credible counterfactuals for top graded central bankers that is nonsuperstar central bankers who face similar situations comparing the economic performance of both groups we find that superstars do indeed matter a top graded central banker faces a significantly more favorable output inflation tradeoff than his peers this effect is driven by outstanding central bankers in both advanced and emerging economies and is especially prevalent in the precrisis subsample jel e52 e58

first impressions matter signalling as a source of policy dynamics we provide the first direct empirical support for the importance of signalling in monetary policy by testing two key predictions from a novel structural model first all policymaker types should become less tough on inflation over time and secondly types that weigh output more should have a more pronounced shift voting data from the bank of england s monetary policy committee strongly support both predictions counterfactual results indicate signalling has a substantial impact on interest rates over the business cycle and improves the committee designer s welfare implications for committee design include allowing regular member turnover and transparency regarding publishing individual votes

monetary policy committees and interest rate setting abstract this paper shows that it is preferable for monetary policy to be conducted by a committee instead of a single policy maker if there is uncertainty about potential output we examine three decision procedures an optimal procedure averaging and voting and find that the latter is the appropriate way to reach decisions if policy makers are not equally skilled finally we demonstrate that efficient decision procedures reduce the persistence of shocks

identifying structural models of committee decisions with heterogeneous tastes and ideological bias in practice members of a committee often make different recommendations despite a common goal and shared sources of information we study the nonparametric identification and estimation of a structural model where such discrepancies are rationalized by the members unobserved types which consist of ideological bias while weighing different sources of information and tastes for multiple objectives announced in the policy target we consider models with and without strategic incentives for members to make recommendations that conform to the final committee decision we show that pure strategy bayesian nash equilibria exist in both cases and that the variation in common information recorded in the data helps us to recover the distribution of private types from the members choices building on the identification result we estimate a structural model of interest rate decisions by the monetary policy committee mpc at the bank of england we find some evidence that the external committee members are les

impact of water scarcity in australia on global food security in an era of climate change abstract australia is a major food exporting country recent droughts reduced dryland farming production and the volume of water allocated to irrigated agriculture with a resulting decline in aggregate agricultural production and exports this paper analyses the possible impact of increased water scarcity on australian agricultural production and the magnitude of subsequent impacts on global food security using the australian bureau of statistics abs data on land and water use coupled with a hydro economic stochastic modelling approach the impacts of reduced agricultural production in the southern murray darling basin and more generally for australia are analysed changes in agricultural activity reduction in agricultural exports and altered composition of products exported attributed to the severe 2000 2009 drought are also analysed to highlight the implications for global food security the impact of climate change on food production is examined the analysis shows that climate change when modelled as the extreme case along with other factors such as land use will impact australian food exports despite its relatively small contribution to total global food supply australia s contribution to international trade in wheat meat and dairy products is substantial and could affect global food prices furthermore australia s agricultural exports are of disproportionate importance within the south and south east asian and oceania region both in terms of volume and for strategic reasons adaptation along with investment in agriculture production is needed to maintain australian agricultural production and enhance global food security

information aggregation rationality and the condorcet jury theorem the condorcet jury theorem states that majorities are more likely than any single individual to select the better of two alternatives when there exists uncertainty about which of the two alternatives is in fact preferred most extant proofs of this theorem implicitly make the behavioral assumption that individuals vote sincerely in the collective decision making a seemingly innocuous assumption given that individuals are taken to possess a common preference for selecting the better alternative however in the model analyzed here we find that sincere behavior by all individuals is not rational even when individuals have such a common preference in particular sincere voting does not constitute a nash equilibrium a satisfactory rational choice foundation for the claim that majorities invariably do better than individuals therefore has yet to be derived

a decade of dissent explaining the dissent voting behavior of bank of england mpc members we examine the dissent voting record of the bank of england monetary policy committee contrary to findings in the fomc literature for example havrilesky and schweitzer in the political economy of american monetary policy pp 197 210 1990 chappell et al in q j econ 108 1 185 218 1993 the effects of members career backgrounds and the political channel of appointment on voting behavior are negligible reflecting the distinct institutional constraints and incentives associated with uk monetary policy our findings also suggest that literature which characterizes voting behavior as being predominantly determined by members internal or external status is overly simplistic this view is supported by econometric results appertaining to the introduction of member specific fixed effects which account for possible unobserved heterogeneity

mergers and acquisitions in blood banking systems a supply chain network approach blood banking systems in the united states over the past decade have been faced with a volatile demand for blood specifically a decrease in demand for red blood cells for a variety of reasons this change in the blood supply chain landscape accompanied by an increasing emphasis on cost efficiency is a driver of mergers acquisitions between blood banks in this paper we first present supply chain network optimization pre and post merger models the models handle perishability of the life saving product of blood include both operational and discarding costs of waste capture the uncertainty associated with the demand points as well as the expected total blood supply shortage cost and the total discarding cost at demand points they also incorporate capacities on the links their solution yields the optimal path and link flows plus the frequencies of activities associated with blood collection shipment testing and processing storage and distribution and incurred total costs we provide a cost efficiency synergy measure associated with a merger or acquisition in the blood banking industry as well as measures capturing the expected supply shortage and surplus the methodological framework and its applicability are then illustrated via a large scale blood supply chain network example inspired by a pending merger in the real world in both status quo and disaster scenarios

a demand systems analysis of food commodities by u s households segmented by income using the 1987 88 nationwide food consumption survey twelve food commodity groups were analyzed according to household poverty status parameter estimates were used to obtain subsistence expenditures own price elasticities expenditure elasticities and income elasticities own price elasticities were similar between the income groups for most commodities however income elasticities were consistently higher for the lower income group the use of average estimates of price and income elasticities for the population as a whole for the projection of individual commodity demands is not likely to be successful if notable changes are evident in income distribution

designing monetary policy committees we integrate monetary policy making by committee into a new keynesian model to assess the consequences of the committee s institutional characteristics for inflation output and welfare our analysis delivers the following results first we demonstrate that transparency about the committee s future composition is typically harmful second we show that short terms for central bankers lead to effective inflation stabilization at the expense of comparably high output variability third larger committees generally allow for more efficient stabilization of inflation but possibly for less efficient output stabilization fourth large committees and short terms are therefore socially desirable if the weight on output stabilization in the social loss function is low fifth we show that a central banker with random preferences may be preferable to a central banker who shares the preferences of society

are two heads better than one monetary policy by committee two experiments were conducted to test the common hypothesis that groups make decisions more slowly than individuals one of these experiments imitates real life monetary policy decisions in both cases the hypothesis is found wanting groups are not slower than individuals in both experiments we also find that group decisions are on average better than individual decisions this holds regardless of whether the groups make decisions by unanimity or majority rule simple mechanical theories of group decisionmaking that the group follows its average player median player or best player do not explain the results group interactions seem to matter

an allocation and distribution model for perishable products this paper presents an allocation model for a perishable product distributed from a regional center to a given set of locations with random demands we consider the combined problem of allocating the available inventory at the center while deciding how these deliveries should be performed two types of delivery patterns are analyzed the first pattern assumes that all demand points receive individual deliveries the second pattern subsumes the frequently occurring case in which deliveries are combined in multistop routes traveled by a fleet of vehicles computational experience is reported

the value of information in the court get it right keep it tight one should always subordinate his own personal views whether they be economic social political or whatever they may be because when you are talking about your own views you are only one of millions of individuals in the country when you are interpreting the law perhaps you have a special skill and special training that does give you the right to pass on these questions i have to confess that in this open area sometimes inevitably a man is the product of his own background and he may be somewhat influenced but i will do my very best to subordinate those considerations because i think that is the duty of any judge justice john stevens in his senate confirmation hearing

order quantities for perishable inventory control with non stationary demand and a fill rate constraint abstract we study the practical decision problem of fresh food production with a long production lead time to decide every period e g week how many items to produce when a batch is ready for use its items have a fixed shelf life after which the items become waste in the sense that they cannot be sold anymore the demand for fresh food products is uncertain and highly fluctuating mainly caused by price promotions of retail organisations we focus on cases where a so called cycle fill rate service level requirement applies we investigate the generation of a production plan that fixes the timing and quantity of the production for a finite time horizon to minimise waste one issues the oldest items first i e a fifo issuing policy in case of out of stock sales are lost we model this decision problem as a stochastic programming sp model the objective of our study is to find order quantities for the sp model that approximately meet cycle fill rate service level requirements while keeping outdating low to find approximate solutions for the sp model an milp model is developed the milp model is a deterministic approximation that generates feasible replenishment quantities in less than a second with a scenario based minlp approach optimal solutions are generated for a large sample of demand paths as a benchmark for the milp solutions we show that the milp model is suitable for practical use if the setup cost is such that the replenishment cycles in the production plan are close to or of the same length as the maximum shelf life in those cases the expected total costs are close to the costs of the optimal solution and the average fill rate is close to the required one

collective versus individual decision making a case study of the bank of israel law abstract the new bank of israel law of 2010 changed monetary policy decision making at the bank of israel from a setup where decisions are taken by the governor to one where decisions are taken by a committee of voting members we use this institutional change as a natural experiment to compare individual versus collective decision making empirical results show different dynamics for interest rate decisions across the two regimes and support the view that the status quo bias is larger when decisions are taken by a committee than when they are taken by a single individual

motives for private transfers over the life cycle an analytical framework and evidence for peru abstract this paper tests for the motives for private income transfers we consider two motives altruism and exchange the question of private transfer motives is important because such motivation can influence the effects of public income transfers on the distribution of income using a household survey for peru we find that transfer amounts received increase with recipient pre transfer income which contradicts a key prediction of the strong form of the altruism hypothesis but is consistent with exchange we also find that capital market imperfections are likely to be an important cause of private transfers and that social security benefits crowd out the incidence of private transfers

the effect of transfers on household expenditure patterns and poverty in south africa abstract this paper uses household level unit record data from south africa to examine the behavioural and welfare impacts of private and public transfers we allow for joint endogeneity of resource variables and the expenditure shares our results show that crowding out of private transfers as a result of the introduction of public pensions holds only for poor households and not for the non poor both private transfers and public pensions significantly reduce poverty but private transfers have a larger impact on expenditure patterns the results also reject the hypothesis of income pooling underlying the conventional unitary model by finding that the marginal impact on expenditures are different for public pension received private transfer received and other resources flowing into the household the principal conclusions are robust to changes in specification

a supply chain network economic model with time based competition abstract this paper presents an integrated model for time cost competition between supply chains with heterogeneous customers the firms in our model can offer various time options for their production service to time sensitive customers this gives rise of a new concept of time based supply chain which we call t chain to be the basic element in the competition and extends the inter supply chain competition to a new dimension of time assuming the customers are heterogeneous in time cost bi criteria decision making we integrate the discrete choice theory into supply chain network competition and formulate the equilibrium conditions as a multinomial logit based variational inequality problem numerical examples are presented for model illustration and managerial insights such as profit maximization for a firm who participates in this supply chain network

the effect of fomc votes on financial markets this paper shows that since votes of members of the federal open market committee have been included in press statements stock prices increase after the announcement when votes are unanimous but f

preferences or private assessments on a monetary policy committee using bank of england voting data we show empirically that members votes are driven by heterogeneous individual assessments of the economy as well as their individual policy preferences estimates indicate that internal committee members form more precise assessments than externals and are also more hawkish the estimates allow the first quantification of the gain due to information aggregation on monetary policy committees the marginal gain from additional committee members tapers quickly after five members there is no evidence of gains through externals moderating internals preferences a relatively small committee of highly informed internal members emerges as a desirable committee structure

monetary policy by committee consensus chairman dominance or simple majority this paper studies the theoretical and empirical implications of monetary policy making by committee under four different voting protocols the protocols are a consensus model where a supermajority is required for a policy change an agenda setting model where the chairman controls the agenda a dictator model where the chairman has absolute power over the committee and a simple majority model where policy is determined by the median member these protocols give preeminence to different aspects of the actual decision making process and capture the observed heterogeneity in formal procedures across central banks the models are estimated by maximum likelihood using interest rate decisions by the committees of five central banks namely the bank of canada the bank of england the european central bank the swedish riksbank and the u s federal reserve for all central banks results indicate that the consensus model fits actual policy decisions better than the alternative models this suggests that despite institutional differences committees share unwritten rules and informal procedures that deliver observationally equivalent policy decisions

credibility and flexibility with independent monetary policy committees independent monetary policy committees are a simple way of attaining relatively low inflation without completely sacrificing an activist role for monetary policy if central bankers types are unknown then for a wide range of parameters an independent committee achieves higher social welfare than either a zero inflation rule or discretionary policy conducted by an opportunistic central banker a key reason for the committee s superior performance is that committee members are relatively likely to opt for low inflation and building a reputation when shocks are small when large shocks hit the economy the incentive to react outweighs the reputationbuilding benefit

global water crisis and future food security in an era of climate change food policy should serve humanity by advancing the humane goals of eradicating extreme poverty and hunger however these goals have recently been challenged by emerging forces including climate change water scarcity the energy crisis as well as the credit crisis this paper analyses the overall role of these forces and population growth in redefining global food security specifically global water supply and demand as well as the linkages between water supply and food security are examined the analysis reveals that the water for food security situation is intricate and might get daunting if no action is taken investments are needed today for enhancing future food security this requires action on several fronts including tackling climate change preserving land and conserving water reducing the energy footprint in food systems developing and adopting climate resilient varieties modernising irrigation infrastructure shoring up domestic food supplies reforming international food trade and responding to other global challenges

impacts of world prices transmission to domestic rice markets in rural iran abstract this paper attempts to assess the degree to which iranian rural households have responded to the change in price of imported rice due to exchange rate unification and to examine the extent to which the policy has affected the economic welfare of various household income groups particularly the poor utilizing samples of 2472 households selected from national expenditure survey data of 2002 and 2003 armington and pass through elasticities were calculated as two measures of substitutability and are discussed separately for each household group in these areas the findings of this study indicate that domestic rice prices are associated differently with imported rice prices among the households however a price increase in imported rice that is mainly consumed by the poor worsens their position much more severely than for the rich people who mainly prefer domestic rice the findings contribute to the understanding of how price changes resulting from trade liberalization may affect various groups of households and the ways they respond to such changes in prices

transparency and deliberation within the fomc a computational linguistics approach how does transparency a key feature of central bank design aect the deliberation of monetary policymakers we exploit a natural experiment in the federal open market committee in 1993 together with computational linguistic models particularly latent dirichlet allocation to measure the eect of increased transparency on debate commentators have hypothesized both a benecial discipline eect

a two stage stochastic programming model for inventory management in the blood supply chain managing inventories in the blood supply chain is a challenging task mainly due to the uncertain nature of the demand for blood units the perishable nature of the blood and a strong subjective bias towards criteria other than cost minimisation in this paper we propose a two stage stochastic programming model for defining optimal periodic review policies for red blood cells inventory management that focus on minimising operational costs as well as blood shortage and wastage due to outdating taking into account perishability and demand uncertainty the adoption of this framework allows the consideration of more general stochastic processes to model the demand uncertainty than approaches currently available in literature moreover this framework renders a model that can be solved efficiently by general purpose off the shelf optimisation software to illustrate the potential benefits of adopting the proposed model to support the definition of optimal blood inventory control policies a case study is presented considering realistic data representing the daily demand for blood which was generated using the average and standard deviation of the demand for eight types of blood results suggest meaningful insights concerning practices that could lead to improvement in the blood supply chain performance in particular we observed that it would be possible to revise the current inventory control policies by reducing current target levels to diminish wastage and total cost without compromising the service level finally the consideration of blood substitutions showed further improvement in the performance of the blood inventory management system