how to beat the random walk an empirical model of real exchange rates abstract an econometric model is developed for all possible bilateral real exchange rates between the united states the united kingdom germany and japan for the period february 1977 to june 1987 we extend the standard dornbusch frankel type of models using an error correction approach with an observable macro economic determinant of the long run real exchange rate for the econometric analysis we develop an efficient estimator by pooling the data for all currencies contrary to previous empirical tests on the long run behaviour of real exchange rates we find a notable and significant mean reversion component

maximum likelihood estimation of cointegration in exchange rate models for seven inflationary oecd countries abstract we apply the johansen technique to estimate cointegration in a monetary exchange rate model modified for real exchange rate fluctuations and applied to seven inflationary oecd countries we generally find one or more cointegrating vectors and the signs of their coefficients are broadly consistent with the modified monetary model the adjustment coefficients are also examined our statistical testing is based on bootstrapping and generates much more conservative rejection criteria than the use of asymptotic critical values even after a substantial degree of freedom correction power estimates are also presented finally we conclude that the monetary model unmodified for real exchange rate fluctuations would be inadequate

comments on the eoq model for deteriorating items with conditional trade credit linked to order quantity in the supply chain management abstract ouyang et al 2009 consider an economic order quantity eoq model for deteriorating items with a partially permissible delay in payments linked to order quantity basically their inventory model is practical but there are some defects from the logical viewpoints of mathematics in this paper the functional behaviors of the annual total relevant costs are explored by rigorous methods of mathematics a complete solution procedure is also developed to make up for the shortcomings of ouyang et al 2009 in numerical examples it is proved that the new solution procedure could avoid making wrong decisions and causing cost penalties

dynamic project selection and funding under risk a decision tree based milp approach abstract this paper presents a mixed integer linear programming milp model for a new class of dynamic project selection and funding problems under risk given multiple scarce resources of different qualifications the underlying stochastic decision tree concept extends classical approaches mainly in that it adds a novel node type that allows for the continuous control of discrete branching probability distributions the control functions are piecewise linear and are convex for the costs and concave for the benefits the milp model has been embedded in a prototype decision support system dss with respect to the proposed solution the dss provides complete probability distributions for both costs and benefits

optimal pricing shipment and payment policy for an integrated supplier buyer inventory model with two part trade credit abstract in this article we develop an integrated supplier buyer inventory model with the assumption that the market demand is sensitive to the retail price and the supplier adopts a trade credit policy the trade credit policy discussed in this paper is a two part strategy cash discount and delayed payment that is if the buyer pays within m1 the buyer receives a cash discount otherwise the full purchasing price must be paid before m2 where m 2 m 1 0 the objective of this research is to determine the optimal pricing ordering shipping and payment policy to maximize the joint expected total profit per unit time an iterative algorithm is established to obtain the optimal strategy furthermore numerical examples and sensitivity analysis are presented to illustrate the results of the proposed model and to draw managerial insights

public capital and long run costs in u k manufacturing a model of u k manufacturing production that incorporates the inputs of public as well as private capital is specified and estimated the model is then used to measure the contribution of public capital to productivity growth over the period 1966 to 1990 it is found that before 1980 the public and private capital contributions were of comparable magnitude after 1980 the contribution of public capital declined significantly copyright 1993 by royal economic society

refining for export and the convergence of petroleum product prices abstract the petroleum refining industry has changed over the past decades from one in which capacity primarily served local and regional markets to one in which trade in refined petroleum products has become more widespread we investigate the hypothesis of increasing globalization by examining the convergence of prices for refined products across different markets using data on refined products from market centers in the us and europe we test for convergence of prices using standard time series techniques the data plainly show that markets for refined petroleum products have become more interrelated as europe exported its gasoline surplus and global demand for petroleum products approached refining capacity econometric evidence supports the hypothesis that the us and european markets for oil and refined products are integrated we find evidence that a structural break during the financial crisis of 2008 changed the long run equilibrium price relationships and the short run price dynamics refined product markets are likely to experience continued globalization given trends in the united states and europe and because of key export oriented refining capacity investments made to take advantage of access to specific crude oil sources

the optimal cycle time for epq inventory model under permissible delay in payments abstract goyal journal of the operational research society 36 1985 35 38 discusses the economic order quantity under conditions of permissible delay in payments an implicit assumption of goyal journal of the operational research society 36 1985 35 38 is that the items are obtained from an outside supplier the entire lot size is delivered at the same time if we wish to adopt all results obtained by goyal journal of the operational research society 36 1985 35 38 then we are effectively assuming that the replenishment rate is infinite the main purpose of this paper is to extend goyal journal of the operational research society 36 1985 35 38 to the case that the units are replenished at a finite rate when the replenishment rate approaches to infinite goyal journal of the operational research society 36 1985 35 38 will be a special case of this paper

optimal strategy for an integrated system with variable production rate when the freight rate and trade credit are both linked to the order quantity abstract this paper presents an integrated inventory model with variable production rate and price sensitive demand rate the buyer s purchases trade credit linked to the order quantity offered by the supplier in addition the buyer pays the freight charge according to a weight schedule this paper attempts to offer a best policy that aims at maximizing the joint total profit while the trade credit and freight rate are simultaneously linked to the order quantity the same policy also incorporates considerations on the optimal retail price order quantity and delivery decision we provide possible solutions for the buyer and the supplier to collaboratively agree on inventory control warehouse management transportation logistics delivery and billing our study demonstrates that significant profit increase for the entire supply chain can be achieved by linking both trade credit policy and freight rate policy to order quantities an algorithm is furnished to determine the optimal solution in addition numerical examples and sensitivity analysis are presented to illustrate the theoretical results

implications of consumer heterogeneity in time series estimates of us money demand the money demand function has traditionally been estimated with income and interest rates typically employing quite lengthy time series controversy however surrounds the importance of heterogeneous agents in monetary economics and throughout macroeconomics more generally in particular if proportions of agents with different traits and hence different money demands are changing over time ignoring those changes may bias estimated income and interest elasticities this concern as well as that of appropriate functional form is explored here controlling for consumer heterogeneity has surprising effects on the estimated elasticities of traditional variables

estimating shocks and impulse response functions this paper examines the issue of how to identify the shocks in a cointegrated var when the following assumptions are made the variables can be classified as endogenous or exogenous there are as many cointegrating relations as endogenous variables the cointegrating vectors are identified and they contain at least one exogenous variable it is shown that with these assumptions it is possible to identify the shocks without the use of further restrictions on the covariance matrix of the disturbances or the short run dynamics if the long run parameters are known the whole model can be estimated by ols the analysis is extended to allow the var to have both stationary and non stationary variables an illustration of the method is provided using the traditional benchmark var model involving us data on output prices interest rates and money a liquidity effect is not found using this var methodology

a sequential model of r d investment over an unbounded time horizon a markov model of sequential r d investment where successful firms are assumed to have an advantage in related follow on r d is formulated and a solution approach is given under this assumption profit maximizing firms must consider the effect of r d investments on their future market position as well as the direct monetary returns from innovation under certain conditions free entry is shown to lead to excessive competition and overinvestment by the firms this market failure can be corrected through a three part policy of restricted patent lives subsidies to firms for consecutive successes and entry taxes in addition to these policy conclusions the modeling and solution approaches presented here provide a framework for further research efforts to incorporate market position into project selection and budget allocation models

a new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the business cycle abstract this paper introduces a general procedure for decomposition of non stationary time series into a permanent and transitory component allowing both components to be stochastic the permanent component is shown to be a random walk with drift and the transitory or cyclical component is a stationary process with mean zero the decomposition methodology which depends only on past data and therefore is computable in real time is applied to the problem of measuring and dating business cycles in the portwar u s economy we find that measured expansions and contractions are of roughly equivalent duration and that our dating of cyclical episodes tends to lead the traditional nber dating and to a lesser extent the growth cycle chronology of zarnowitz and boschan 1977

an incentive compatible solution for trade credit term incorporating default risk abstract this paper studies the optimal trade credit term decision in an extended economic ordering quantity eoq framework that incorporates a default risk component a principal agent bilevel programming model with costs minimization objectives is set up to derive the incentive compatible credit term the supplier determines the credit term as the leader in the first level programming by balancing her his financing capacity with the retailer s default risk order behavior and cost shifting at the second level the retailer makes decisions on ordering and payment time by reacting on the term offered by the supplier a first order condition solution procedure is derived for the bilevel programming when credit term is confined within the practically feasible interval two key results are obtained the condition to derive incentive compatible credit term and an equation system to derive threshold default risk criterion filtering retailers suitable for credit granting numerical experiments show that the capital cost of the supplier is the most important factor determining the credit term default risk acts like a filtering criterion for selecting retailers suitable for credit granting empirical evidence supporting our theoretical considerations is obtained by estimating three panel econometric models using a dataset from china s listed companies

an asymmetric error correction model of uk consumer spending this paper augments the granger and lee journal of applied econometrics 4 1989 non symmetric error equilibrium correction model to assess the possibility that in the aggregate consumers respond differently to different types of disequilibrium error this idea is illustrated using an engle granger implementation of the davidson hendry srba and yeo dhsy economic journal 80 1978 model the disequilibrium error is endogenously determined by the long run empirical model and a binary dummy variable captures two alternative states above and below equilibrium spending interaction of the dummy variable with key variables in a short run dynamic model of uk consumer spending augments the dynamics of the dhsy model income elasticities inflation elasticities and speeds of adjustment are all seen to change significantly depending on whether the disequilibrium error is positive or negative and is suggestive of asymmetric behaviour on the part of consumers moreover the asymmetrically augmented mode

have north south growth linkages changed abstract this paper provides econometric evidence suggesting that the traditional tradebased business cycle linkages between the north and the south have changed many countries in the south particularly in asia appear to have become more resilient to cyclical movements in the north and play a more significant role in sustaining global activity a number of factors may have contributed to these changes improved domestic policies and more open trade and exchange regimes closer financial linkages with the north and a substantial increase in capital flows a marked rise in intraregional trade and greater diversification of the exports of the south

an eoq model with noninstantaneous receipt and exponentially deteriorating items under two level trade credit abstract this paper considers the impact of the trade credit policy on the classical economic production quantity epq model for an item subject to exponential decays essentially this study focuses on an exponentially deteriorating item under the conditions of the retailer receiving the supplier trade credit and providing the customer trade credit simultaneously so as to minimize the average total cost a theorem is developed to determine the optimal replenishment policies the main contribution to literature is the inclusion of the latter type of payment delay finally through numerical examples sensitive analysis shows the influence of key model parameters

continuous review inventory model with delay in payments abstract in this paper we examine the continuous review inventory model under permissible delays in payments that is a retailer has the option of either paying for the goods immediately upon the receipt of the order or delay the payment till the next replenishment order where interest will be charged over the delay period expected demand will be assumed constant over time and the order lead time is considered random the objective is to find the optimal ordering quantity and reorder level that will maximize the vendor s total expected profit per unit time when payments are delayed

net foreign assets and international adjustment the united states japan and germany abstract this paper examines external adjustment in the usa japan and germany from the perspective of net foreign asset positions it asks two questions what are in the long run the determinants of net foreign asset equilibrium what are in the short run some of the adjustment mechanisms sustaining that equilibrium an analysis of post war data produces two insights first using a cointegration approach the existence of long run net foreign asset equilibrium can be identified it is a function of demographic variables and public debt second deviations from long run equilibrium give rise to feedback through different components of domestic absorption in the three countries

the simplified solution algorithm for an integrated supplier buyer inventory model with two part trade credit in a supply chain system abstract ho et al ho c h ouyang l y su c h 2008 optimal pricing shipment and payment policy for an integrated supplier buyer inventory model with two part trade credit european journal of operational research 187 496 510 discussed the integrated inventory model with two part trade credit and presented an algorithm to solve it basically ho et al s inventory model is correct and interesting however this paper indicates that the solution algorithm described in ho et al 2008 can be simplified further so this paper can not only derive the optimally closed form formulations for the optimal numbers of shipments but also develop different algorithms to improve those in ho et al 2008 numerical examples illustrate that the algorithm to locate the optimal solution is rather accurate and rapid

an inventory model with deteriorating items under inflation when a delay in payment is permissible abstract this study develops an inventory model for initial stock dependent consumption rate when a delay in payment is permissible in the inventory model shortages are not allowed the effect of the inflation rate deterioration rate initial stock dependent consumption rate and delay in payment are discussed in the study mathematical models are also derived under two different circumstances i e case i the credit period is less than or equal to the cycle time for settling the account and case ii the credit period is greater than the cycle time for settling the account besides expressions for an inventory system s total cost are derived for these two cases moreover a computational procedure and gino lasdon et al acm transactions mathematical software 4 1978 34 50 are proposed to obtain the optimal order size and cycle time the results can help managers determine the optimal total cost finally a numerical example demonstrates the applicability of the proposed model

measuring market power for some industrial sectors in austria this paper applies an oligopoly model which parameterizes the degree of market power for two industrial sectors glass industry non electrical machinery in austria in contrast all other paper in the new empirical indsutrial organization literature we account for the non stationarity characteristics of the data series a dynamic specification procedure which assumes structural long run equilibrium relationships is therefore applied since a simultaneous system with non linear cross equation restrictions is implied by the economic model a full information maximum likelihood method is used the data reveal a higher degree of market power for the glass industry than for non electrical machinery this hierarchy is in line with the position of these industries for concentration rates and herfindahl indices

the optimal inventory policies under permissible delay in payments depending on the ordering quantity abstract this paper deals with the problem of determining the economic order quantity under conditions of permissible delay in payments the delay in payments depends on the quantity ordered when the order quantity is less than the quantity at which the delay in payments is permitted the payment for the item must be made immediately otherwise the fixed trade credit period is permitted the minimization of the total variable cost per unit of time is taken as the objective function an algorithm to determine the economic order quantity is developed the results obtained in this paper generalize some already published results

an eoq model under retailer partial trade credit policy in supply chain abstract the main purpose of this paper is to investigate the retailer s inventory policy under two levels of trade credit to reflect the supply chain management situation in this paper we assume that the retailer has the powerful decision making right so we extend the assumption that the retailer can obtain the full trade credit offered by the supplier and the retailer just offers the partial trade credit to his her customer then we investigate the retailer s inventory system as a cost minimization problem to determine the retailer s optimal inventory policy under the supply chain management two easy to use theorems are developed to efficiently determine the optimal inventory policy for the retailer we deduce some previously published results of other researchers as special cases finally numerical examples are given to illustrate the theorems and obtain a lot of managerial phenomena

inventory ordering policies of delayed deteriorating items under permissible delay in payments abstract the existing literature on inventory of deteriorating items considers deterioration to begin as soon as the items are stocked however there are several deteriorating items that do not start deteriorating immediately they are held in stock some farm produce like potatoes yams and even some fruits and vegetables have this property depletion of these items as soon as they are stocked will depend on demand and when deterioration begins it will depend on both demand and deterioration in this paper we develop a mathematical model on the inventory of deteriorating items that do not start deteriorating immediately they are stocked the model also takes into cognizance the fact that in business activities nowadays customers are given some allowed period within which to settle for the goods supplied to them they can use the accrued money from sales of the supplied goods to earn interest within the allowed period they are charged interest only when they fail to settle the amount they owe the supplier at the end of the allowed period

optimal price discounting and lot sizing policies for perishable items in a supply chain under advance payment scheme and two echelon trade credits abstract many researchers have assumed that a retailer announces price discount to motivate market sales when he has competition in markets unanticipated surplus in inventory or change in the production run of a product but in real life situations there are retailers who announce price discount offer under advance payment ap scheme prior to the selling period due to the advancement of internet and on line money transactions the ap scheme is common and useful to decrease the estimation error in demand and to increase the market sales when the items are arrived to the inventory the priority will be given to the customers who use ap scheme this paper considers a supply chain where the supplier provides the retailer a full trade credit period for payments whereas the retailer offers the partial trade credit to his customers i intend to develop an economic order quantity eoq based model with perishable items in order to investigate the retailer s inventory system as a cost minimization problem under ap scheme and two echelon trade credit option mathematical theorems are developed to determine optimal price discounting and lot sizing policies and a lot of managerial phenomena are obtained through numerical examples

declining discount rates and the fisher effect inflated past discounted future uncertain and persistent real interest rates underpin one argument for using a declining term structure of social discount rates in the expected net present value enpv framework despite being controversial this approach has influenced both the inter agency working group on cost benefit analysis and the uk government s guidelines on discounting we first clarify the theoretical basis of the enpv approach then rather than following previous work which used a single series of u s treasury bond returns we treat nominal interest rates and inflation as co integrated series and estimate the empirical term structure of discount rates via the fisher effect this nests previous empirical models and is more flexible it also addresses an irregularity in previous work which used data on nominal interest rates until 1950 and real interest rates thereafter as we show the real and nominal data have very different time series properties this paper therefore provides a robustness check on previous discounting advice and updated methodological guidance at a time when governments around the world are reviewing their guidelines on social discounting the policy implications are discussed in the context of the social cost of carbon nuclear decommissioning and public health

a century of evolution from harris s basic lot size model survey and research agenda abstract determining the economic lot size has always represented one of the most important issues in production planning this problem has long attracted the attention of researchers and several models have been developed to meet requirements at minimum cost in this paper we explore and discuss the evolution of these models during one hundred years of history starting from the basic model developed by harris in 1913 up to today following harris s work a number of researchers have devised extensions that incorporate additional considerations the evolution of eoq theory strongly reflects the development of industrial systems over the past century here we outline all the research areas faced in the past by conducting a holistic analysis of 219 selected journal papers and trying to give a comprehensive view of past work on the eoq problem finally a new research agenda is proposed and discussed

co integration tests for long run equilibrium in the monetary exchange rate model abstract the monetary model of exchange rate determination is tested as a long run equilibrium relation tests of co integration among the variables in this model over a wide range of specifications are generally unfavorable to the monetary approach

the exchange rate and purchasing power parity extending the theory and tests abstract this paper analyzes the exchange rate in a no arbitrage or real business cycle equilibrium model and provides empirical evidence for this model vis a vis ppp our contribution is to show based on a generalization of the equilibrium model of exchange rates that i the test equation linking the exchange rate to fundamentals should allow for international heterogeneity in time preferences and risk attitudes as well as noise that is the model should not be tested as an exact relation ii empirical work should use levels of variables rather than first differences and iii tests on the existence of long run relations should be complemented by test on the signs of the coefficients our empirical work shows that as a long run relation the generalized model outperforms ppp moreover under the generalized model quarterly deviations from the estimated long term relation have a half life of only four to five quarters

on optimal payment time for a retailer under permitted delay of payment by the wholesaler abstract jamal et al 2000 optimal payment time for a retailer under permitted delay of payment by the wholesaler international journal of production economics 66 59 66 study a wholesaler retailer supply chain where the retailer is given a permissible credit period to pay back the dues without paying any interest to the wholesaler the problem is modeled as a cost minimization problem with two decision variables the payment time p of the retailer and the length of the inventory cycle t while the model represents in general an interesting problem we show in this note that there are a number of nontrivial flaws contained in the development of their model and therefore the solution they derived is not correct we give the correct model and derive the corresponding optimal solution

a stochastic competitive r d race where winner takes all the paper considers a race among multiple firms that compete over the development of a product the first firm to complete the development gains a reward whereas the other firms gain nothing each firm decides how much to invest in developing the product and the time it completes the development is a random variable that depends on the investment level the paper provides a method for explicitly computing a unique nash equilibrium parametrically in the interest rate for a given interest rate the nash equilibrium is determined in time that is linear in the number of firms the structure of the solution yields insights about the behavior of the participants furthermore an explicit expression for a unique globally optimal solution is obtained and compared to the unique nash equilibrium

market structure and innovation a survey economics we all recite deals with allocation of limited resources towards satisfaction of unlimited wants resources are typically identified as land labor and capital plus a technology that determines their transformation into consumer goods disparity between the available goods and services and the desired gives rise to scarcity and the question of what how and for whom to produce the focus then shifts to description and evaluation of alternative resource allocation mechanisms for making the choices the pareto criterion by which an allocation of resources is deemed efficient if any reallocation improving the position of some individual worsens the position of others is a commonly employed gauge of a mechanism s performance in the absence of externalities increasing returns to scale and uncertainty a perfectly competitive market system yields a pareto optimal allocation of resources this underlies the view that individual self interest is compatible with society s interest the further conclusion that pareto optimality may not be achieved via the market system in the presence of monopoly elements provides an economic rationale for antitrust laws the objective of a resource allocation mechanism appears to be according to the analysis described above to make the best of available resources the alternative objective of relaxing constraints through expanding the resource base or developing new technology seems to be beyond its scope thus until rather recently technical advance had been regarded in the mainstream of economic theory as unmotivated by the quest for profits and substantially unaffected by resource allocation instead as j schmookler observed technology had been viewed as a parameter like the weather affecting the outcome of resource allocations but itself unaffected by them 84 1965 evidence that technological progress has significantly contributed to growth in productivity together with a substantial increase in research and development activity largely financed by government and carried out by industry see f machlup 51 1962 may have spurred reconsideration of this view once technical advance is regarded as an economic variable it is natural to in

single equation maximum likelihood estimates of the cointegrating vector in a dollar lira exchange rate model several single equation asymptotically maximum likelihood techniques are applied to estimate the cointegrating vector in a dollar lira exchange rate model for compatison the results from a systems approach are also reported differences in results from the different approaches probably reflect the small sample but the parameter estimates for each variable have the correct sign and are statistically significant the results indicate that factors from both monetary and real exchange rate models are important

ricardian equivalence and the public and private saving nexus in india abstractthis study tests the ricardian equivalence theorem ret and examines the responsiveness of private saving to public saving in india most estimators do not provide support for the empirical validity of ret and long run cointegration between public and private saving the increases in household saving hhs seem to have been engendered by the provision of saving incentives institution of saving schemes self driven motivation to save and the precautionary accumulations induced by uncovered uncertainties in incomes rather than by ricardian behaviour of households the self imposed aversion to debt and debt bequest borrowing and liquidity constraints and the intertemporal smoothing of consumption have been the added catalysts that contributed to the increases in hhs the households with binding borrowing constraints inadequate or no insurance and uncovered uncertainties in incomes seem to have been saving more to pay for higher inflation tax the fiscal consolidation and generation of public s

services sector and economic growth in india this study examines the long run equilibrium and short run dynamic relationship between services sector and gross domestic product gdp and between services and nonservices sectors in india the model is estimated using the optimal single equation and the maximum likelihood system estimators all the estimators consistently suggest the cointegrating relationship between services sector and gdp as well as between services and nonservices sectors the estimates of long run elasticity parameters are statistically significant and dimensionally consistent across the estimators the conventional cumulative sum cusum and the new cusum and moving sum mosum tests suggest the stability of the equilibrium residuals and reinforce the cointegrating relationship between the model series the error correction model provides some support for unidirectional granger causality from services sector to gdp the impulse response and variance decomposition analyses instead suggest the bidirectional causality between servic

estimating long run economic equilibria with stochastic trends an asymptotic theory is provided to analyze a menu of currently existing estimators of cointegrated systems we study in detail the single equation ecm seecm approach of hendry our theoretical results lead to prescriptions for empirical work such as specifying seecm s nonlinearly and including lagged equilibrium relationships rather than lagged differences of the dependent variable as covariates simulations support these prescriptions and point to problems of overfitting not encountered in the semiparametric approach of phillips and hansen 1990

a joint approach for setting unit price and the length of the credit period for a seller when end demand is price sensitive this paper considers the seller buyer channel in which the end demand is price sensitive and the seller may offer trade credit to the buyer the unit price seller charged by the seller and the length of the credit period offered by the seller to the buyer both influence the final demand for the product hence we consider both to be policy variables for the seller we use the case of no credit as a benchmark in our analysis the paper provides procedures for determiningthe seller s and the buyer s policies under non cooperative as well as cooperative relationships in the non cooperative case we determine for the seller the optimal unit price and the length of the credit period for the cooperative structure we provide a procedure for characterizingpareto efficient solutions r 2002 elsevier science b v all rights reserved