exchange rate volatility and export growth in nigeria this article examines the impact of exchange rate volatility on nigeria s exports to its most important trading partner the united states over the quarterly period january 1980 to april 2001 using cointegration and vector error correction vecm framework empirical tests indicate the presence of a unique cointegrating vector linking real exports real foreign income relative export prices and real exchange rate volatility in the long run furthermore the results show that increases in the volatility of the real exchange rate raise uncertainty about profits to be made which exert significant negative effects on exports both in the short and long run our results also show that improvements in the terms of trade represented by declines in the real exchange rate and real foreign income exert positive effects on export activity most importantly we found that the trade liberalization and economic reform policies implemented in the post 1986 structural adjustment period contributed to nigeria s export

an economic theory of self control the concept of self control is incorporated in a theory of individual intertemporal choice by modeling the individual as an organization the individual at a point in time is assumed to be both a farsighted planner and a myopic doer the resulting conflict is seen to be fundamentally similar to the agency conflict between the owners and managers of a firm both individuals and firms use the same techniques to mitigate the problems which the conflicts create this paper stresses the implications of this agency model and discusses as applications the effect of pensions on saving saving and the timing of income flows and individual discount rates

modeling aggregate manufactured exports for some asian newly industrialized economies a central question in studies of the asian newly industrialised economies has been whether the extremely rapid export growth of these countries can be viewed as primarily a phenomenon of income elastic export demand or of fast expanding export supply in the face of highly price elastic demand this paper provides evidence to show that while high income elasticities of export demand are detected using a conventional simultaneous model this may conceal the presence of important product differentiation and product innovation effects on export demand these are then captured using a measure of the total resource base copyright 1995 by mit press

u s bilateral trade flows and exchange risk during the floating period abstract this paper tests for real exchange rate risk effects on u s bilateral trade flows during the floating period using several new as well as previously used risk measures significant negative effects occur in five of six u s import flows and in two of six u s export flows with one export flow showing a significant positive effect these results are consistent with several previous findings for aggregate u s trade two risk measures using the forward exchange rate and assuming a time varying risk premium provide marginally more significant results than the others

export growth slowdown and currency crisis the malaysian experience a slowdown in export growth occurred in all east asian economies that were affected by the asian currency crisis misaligned exchange rates have been widely cited as a cause of the slowdown in the malaysian context at least a vulnerability to the downturn in the electronic cycle could also be a major factor leading to poor export performance using the us yen dollar rate as a proxy for exchange rate misalignment and us total new orders for electronics as a proxy for global electronics demand cointegration analysis was used to establish the likely causes of a slowdown in malaysia s export performance empirical results suggest that a unique long run relationship exists between all three variables the policy implications of these results including exchange rate monitoring and export diversification are discussed in the conclusion

effects of exchange rate risk on exports crosscountry analysis abstract in this paper we investigate the effects of exchange rate uncertainty on the aggregate exports of 19 developed and 67 developing countries using cross sectional data exchange rate uncertainty is found to be detrimental to the exports of both developing and developed countries developed countries exports however are found to be less sensitive to exchange risk than that of developing countries furthermore within the developing countries those who fixed their exchange rates to one major currency were found to be subject to less risk than the other developing countries

managerial ability a review of its basis and potential improvement using psychological concepts abstract achieving an appropriate resource allocation structure usually revolves around the farm manager his or her ability is crucial to success yet most farmers learn by experience and or through various courses that concentrate on technical production economic and related aspects putting more effort into understanding the components of managerial ability and how a managers ability to perform well in each component might be improved is well overdue as psychology is the study of people and their actions it is the obvious discipline to turn to for assistance this paper contains a review of the psychology of decision making from a farm management perspective outlines what psychology offers for changing a person s attributes and considers the structure of a research programme aimed at developing methods for improving individual s managerial ability

exchange rate volatility and foreign trade evidence from thirteen ldc s this article investigates empirically the impact of real exchange rate volatility on the export flows of 13 less developed countries ldc s over the quarterly period 1973 1996 estimates of the cointegrating relations are obtained using johansen s multivariate procedure estimates of the short run dynamics are obtained for each country using the error correction technique the major results show that increases in the volatility of the real effective exchange rate approximating exchange rate uncertainty exert a significant negative effect on export demand in both the short run and the long run in each of the 13 ldc s these effects may result in significant reallocation of resources by market participants

exchange rate volatility and aggregate export growth in bangladesh the long and short run determinants of bangladeshi export growth are examined these are modelled as depending on world trade volume bangladeshi and world export prices and exchange rate volatility several techniques are used to estimate and test hypotheses about the cointegration space of these variables we find that there are two plausible restricted cointegrating vectors one appears to be an export demand while the other is suggestive of an export supply these are then imposed on an error correction model estimates suggest that in the long run bangladeshi export growth is driven by the volume of world trade and is negatively and inelastically related to the volatility of bangladeshi exchange rates once these long run effects are accounted for it is found that none of the variables significantly explains any short run changes in export growth

the effects of exchange rate volatility on exports some new estimates investigations of the impact of exchange rate volatility on exports have not allowed for the integrated non stationary of the variables employed in estimation the results reported in this note are suggestive that in the context of an error correction framework real exchange rate volatility has a significant impact on exports

education experience and allocative efficiency a dual approach a generalization of the dual non frontier profit function approach to evaluating allocative efficiency is developed that allows for training human capital variables to influence the efficiency level directly an application to pennsylvania dairy indicates that education and experience are substitutes and play a significant role in the level of efficiency while these operators are not allocating their variable inputs in an absolutely efficient manner relative efficiency can be achieved for four of six possible input combinations for prescribed levels of education and experience furthermore the estimates of the efficiency measures suggest that these operators are maximizing production rather than short run profits

persistent trade effects of large exchange rate shocks this paper presents a theoretical basis for the argument that large exchange rate shocks such as the 1980s dollar cycle may have persistent effects on trade flows and the equilibrium exchange rate itself we begin with a partial equilibrium model in which large exchange rate fluctuations lead to entry or exit decisions that are not reversed when the currency returns to its previous level then we develop a simple model of the feedback from hysteresis in trade to the exchange rate itself here we see that a large capital inflow which leads to an initial appreciation can result in a persistent reduction in the exchange rate consistent with trade balance

exchange rate depreciation and exports the case of singapore revisited this article revisits the weak relationship between exchange rate depreciation and exports for singapore using a bivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity in mean model that simultaneously estimates time varying risk the evidence shows that depreciation does not significantly improve exports but that exchange rate risk significantly impedes exports in sum singaporean policy makers can better promote export growth by stabilizing the exchange rate rather than generating its depreciation

using survey data to test standard propositions regarding exchange rate expectations survey data provide a measure of exchange rate expectations superior to the forward rate in that no risk premium interferes we estimate extrapolative adaptive and regressive models of expectations static or random walk expectations and bandwagon expectations are rejected current appreciation generates the expectation of future depreciation because variables other than the contemporaneous spot rate receive weight in comparing expectations to the process governing the spot rate we find statistically significant bias no variable is as ubiquitous in international financial theory and yet as elusive empirically as investors expectations regarding exchange rates in the past expectations have been modeled in an ad hoc way often by using the forward exchange rate there is however a serious problem with using the forward discount as the measure of the expected change in the exchange rate in that the two may not be equal the gap that may separate the forward discount and expected depreciation is generally interpreted as a risk premium most of the large empirical literature testing the unbiasedness of the forward exchange rate for example has found it necessary either arbitrarily to assume away the existence of the risk premium if the aim

stability of the money demand function in asian developing countries previous studies that estimated the money demand function in asian developing countries either employed traditional estimation techniques or recently popularized cointegration technique while the first group suffers from spurious regression problems the second group interpreted their finding of cointegration as a sign of stability of estimated parameters this study after incorporating the cusum and cusumsq tests into cointegration analysis shows that in some asian countries even though real m1 or m2 monetary aggregates are cointegrated with their determinants the estimated parameters are unstable

how to define and study farmers management capacity theory and use in agricultural economics textbooks and articles on farm management stress the importance of the management capacity of the farmer with respect to his farm results however explicit definitions together with an elaboration of this concept are hard to find in this article aspects of management capacity are grouped into 1 personal aspects consisting of farmer s drives and motivations farmer s abilities and capabilities and his biographical facts such as age and education and 2 aspects of the decision making process consisting of practices and procedures with respect to planning implementation and control of decisions at the farm empirical studies on the role of management capacity in relation to farm results are reviewed frontier production functions are widely used in recent literature to estimate technical and economic efficiency of farms however in explaining differences in efficiency most studies do not go further than adding a biographical variable e g level of education this study concludes that a next step would be to include aspects of the decision making process longitudinal on farm observations which give possibilities for studying the dynamic aspects of the decision making are suggested to further analyze the concept of management capacity

exchange rate uncertainty and foreign trade abstract this paper starts with reviewing the existing literature on exchange rate uncertainty and trade flows it then argues that potential costs of medium term uncertainty in exchange rates and competitiveness are likely to be much larger than that of exchange risk which has been the focus of the existing literature two measures of medium term exchange rate uncertainty are constructed one is a weighted function of the magnitude of past movements in nominal exchange rates and the current deviation of the exchange rate from equilibrium while the second depends on both the duration and the amplitude of misalignment from equilibrium exchange rates the empirical evidence reported in the paper suggests that when exchange rate uncertainty is defined over a medium term period it does affect adversely trade flows of the industrial countries under review with the notable exception of the united states

long run price and income elasticities of demand for hong kong exports a structural cointegrating var approach this article revisits a system of export volume and price equations to estimate the long run price and income effects in the demand for hong kong s exports using a recently developed restricted cointegrating var approach it tests theorybased restrictions and obtains estimates of the long run structural coefficients the estimation results provide supporting evidence for the theory based restrictions and suggest that the demand for hong kong s exports is both price and income elastic this article is therefore able to present a long run model of hong kong s exports that is both theory and data consistent and long run elasticities that are economically interpretable the short run properties of the model are illustrated by means of persistence profiles which confirm the cointegrating vectors tendency of convergence

the effects of real exchange rate risk on international trade abstract by assuming real profit maximization and uncertain prices as well as exchange rates we conclude that it is uncertain percentage changes in the real exchange rate that are risky in international trade empirical estimation of fourteen bilateral trade flows among industrialized countries finds a significant negative effect on trade quantity from such risk in a number of these cases the expectation variable has a positive effect in a larger number of cases significant price effects from the expectation variable are fewer and from risk are negligible

government spending and the exchange rate this paper investigates the effects of govenment spending on real and nominal exchange rates within the context of an open economy equilibrium rational expectations model the model predicts that both real and nominal exchange rates appreciate in response to anticipated and unanticipated increases in government spending empirical evidence from germany for the period 1975 2 1989 4 provides some weak support for the predictions of the model

on the consistency of short run and long run exchange rate expectations abstract this paper examines whether short term exchange rate expectations overreact by comparing them with long term expectations we develop a set of nonlinear restrictions linking expectations at different forecast horizons the restrictions impose consistency a property weaker than rationality we use exchange rate survey data to measure expectations and then test whether consistency holds the data show that a current positive exchange rate shock leads investors to expect a higher long run future spot rate when iterating forward their short term expectations than when thinking directly about the long run in this sense short horizon expectations may overreact to current exchange rate changes

exchange rate pegs and foreign exchange exposure in east and south east asia abstract this paper shows that many asia pacific firms are significantly exposed to foreign exchange risk their exposure appears to be much more widespread than is typical for the large western industrialized economies the paper also shows that exchange rate pegs appear to do little to alleviate this widespread exposure against currencies other than the peg the firms studied here are most exposed to fluctuations in the us dollar the yen and the euro are important in a few countries the extent of their exchange rate exposure has varied but not diminished over the last decade the most widespread exchange rate sensitivity not just the most exchange rate fluctuation occurred during the asian crisis period this is evident even after accounting for the local macroeconomic conditions that affect aggregate local returns

integration vs segmentation in the canadian stock market this paper examines the issue of integration versus segmentation of the canadian equity market relative to a global north american market we compare the international and domestic versions of the capm and find that integration or the mean variance efficiency of the global market index is rejected by the data segmentation is the preferred model based on a maximum likelihood procedure correcting for thin trading we further divide the sample into securities that are interlisted in canada and the u s and those that are not integration is rejected for both groups which indicates that the source of segmentation can be traced to legal barriers based on the nationality of issuing firms empirical studies of international capital markets have left the issue of segmentation versus integration largely unresolved yet the question of national or international pricing of assets has crucial implications for financial decisions if national stock markets are segmented then international portfolios should display superior risk adjusted performance because some of the priced domestic systematic risk is diversifiable also with segmentation many irrelevance propositions for corporate financial strategy break down home firms face optimal hedging decisions as well as optimal foreign versus home borrowing decisions finally criteria for capital budgeting decisions will be quite different under national and international pricing the purpose of this paper is to shed some light on this integration versus segmentation question for the canadian equity market vis a vis a global north american market in this paper integration is defined2 as a situation where investors earn the same risk adjusted expected return on similar financial instruments in different national markets the key problem of course is the pricing

expectation formation in the foreign exchange market a time varying heterogeneity approach using survey data using consensus economics survey data on jpy usd and gbp usd exchange rate expectations for the 3 and 12 month horizons over the period november 1989 december 2012 we first show that expectations fail the conventional tests of unbiasedness and do not exhibit a learning process towards rationality our approach is consistent with the economically rational expectations theory feige and pearce 1976 which states that information costs and agents aversion to misestimating future exchange rates determine the optimal amounts of information on which they base their expectations the time variability of the cost aversion ratios justifies at the aggregate level a representation of expectations as a linear combination of the traditional extrapolative adaptive and regressive processes augmented by a forward market component whose parameters are allowed to change over time this mixed expectation model with unstable heterogeneity is validated by our kalman filter estimation results for the two currencies and

measuring and analysing the effects of short term volatility in real exchange rates this paper examines short term volatility in the real effective exchange rates of industrial countries and its impact on their imports it yields three conclusions first volatility has not diminished as markets have gained experience with floating exchange rates the trend appears to be in the opposite direction for some countries second exposure to short term volatility has differed among countries japan and sweden have experienced much more than most other industrial countries third volatility appears to depress the volume of international trade this third finding is consistent with results reported by cushman and by akhtar and hilton and challenges earlier findings by hooper and kohlhagen

does black market exchange rate volatility deter the trade flows iranian experience previous studies that investigated the impact of exchange rate volatility on the trade flows employed official exchange rate data to construct a measure of exchange rate uncertainty in this paper we show that in countries that there is a black market for foreign exchange the black market exchange rate volatility could have adverse effect on the trade flows we show this by using data from iran and cointegration analysis

the effect of real exchange rate uncertainty on exports empirical evidence unless very specific assumptions are made theory alone cannot determine the sign of the relation between real exchange rate uncertainty and exports on the one hand convexity of the profit function with respect to prices implies that an increase in price uncertainty raises the expected returns in the export sector on the other potential asymmetries in the cost of adjusting factors of production for example investment irreversibility and risk aversion tend to make the uncertainty exports relation negative this article examines these issues using a simple risk aversion model export equations allowing for uncertainty are then estimated for six developing countries contrary to the ambiguity of the theory the empirical relation is strongly negative estimates indicate that a 5 percent increase in the annual standard deviation of the real exchange rate can reduce exports by 2 to 30 percent in the short run these effects are substantially magnified in the long run

exchange rate exposure abstract in this paper we examine the relationship between exchange rate movements and firm value we estimate the exchange rate exposure of publicly listed firms in a sample of eight non us industrialized and emerging markets we find that exchange rate movements do matter for a significant fraction of firms though which firms are affected and the direction of exposure depends on the specific exchange rate and varies over time suggesting that firms dynamically adjust their behavior in response to exchange rate risk exposure is correlated with firm size multinational status foreign sales international assets and competitiveness and trade at the industry level

permanent and transitory components in macroeconomic fluctuations fluctuations in real gnp have traditionally been viewed as transitory deviations from a deterministic time trend the purpose of this paper is to review some of the recent developments that have led to a new view of output fluctuations and then to provide some additional evidence using post war quarterly data it is hard to reject the view that real gnp is as persistent as a random walk with drift we also consider the hypothesis that the recent finding of persistence are due to the failure to distinguish the business cycle from other fluctuations in real gnp we use the measured unemployment rate to decompose output fluctuations we find no evidence for the view that business cycle fluctuations are more quickly trend reverting this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

measuring managerial efficiency the case of commercial greenhouse growers abstract recently the managerial decision making process has been given new attention both in theoretical studies as well as in empirical research explaining differences in farm results however while critical to explaining efficiency managerial ability has been difficult to measure and therefore often ignored this study attempts to measure managerial ability it divides the decision making process into four steps goal formulation planning monitoring and evaluation the quality of each step is measured in a panel of 26 specialised flower producers the impact of decision making on the firms efficiencies is measured by means of a stochastic frontier production function a one step procedure is used in which technical and decision making parameters are jointly estimated the results show positive associations between firm efficiency and the quality of decision making especially monitoring and firm evaluation indicating that this procedure has been potentially successful and is a move towards successfully measuring a critical input

real exchange rate volatility and the us bilateral trade a var approach this paper uses var models to investigate the impact of real exchange rate volatility on u s bilateral imports from the united kingdom france germany japan and canada the var systems include u s and foreign macro variables and are estimated separately for each country the major results suggest that the effect of volatility on imports is weak although permanent shocks to volatility do have a negative impact on this measure of trade and those effects are relatively more important over the flexible rate period copyright 1989 by mit press

exports export composition and growth cointegration and causality evidence for malaysia this paper comprehensively tests the export led growth elg hypothesis for malaysia for the period 1955 90 using cointegration and causality testing based on hsiao s synthesis of the granger test and akaike s minimum final prediction error criterion the results provide support for the elg hypothesis aggregate exports granger cause real gdp and non export gdp this relationship is found to be driven by manufactured exports rather than by traditional exports

exchange rate volatility and exports from east asian countries to japan and the usa the purpose of this article is to investigate the impact of exchange rate volatility on exports in four east asian countries hong kong south korea singapore and thailand specifically this article aims at determining whether the bilateral real exchange rate volatility between an east asian country and its trading partner negatively affects the exports of the east asian country considering the dominant roles of the usa and japan as trading partners of those east asian countries this article focuses on the quarterly export volumes of east asian countries to the us and japan for the period from 1981 to 2004 except for the case of hong kong s exports to japan cointegration tests and estimations of error correction models indicate exchange rate volatility has negative impacts on exports either in the short run or in the long run or both on the other hand the real gdp of importing countries and depreciation of real bilateral exchange rates turn out in general to have positive effects of special

additional evidence on integration in the canadian stock market this paper reexamines the integration of the canadian and u s stock markets in the 1977 86 period that is relatively free from capital controls the study employs both the capm and the apt frameworks under both models the evidence is consistent with segmentation in the 1977 81 subperiod but supports integration in the 1982 86 subperiod using the apt framework we also find that the canadian stocks interlisted on the u s exchanges and nasdaq are priced in an integrated market and segmentation is predominant for the non interlisted canadian stocks in a study using an international capm framework jorion and schwartz 1986 find strong evidence of segmentation in the pricing of canadian stocks relative to a north american market comprising the canadian and u s stock markets the rejection of integration holds for canadian stocks that are interlisted on the u s stock exchanges and nasdaq as well as for domestic canadian stocks that are listed only on the canadian stock exchanges their results are surprising since the canadian and u s economies are highly integrated and the structure and regulation of security markets in the two countries are similar as well the canadian stocks interlisted on the u s stock exchanges list under the same regulation as the domestic u s stocks thus ex ante we would expect the canadian and u s stock markets to be integrated especially for the interlisted stocks 1 this study reexamines the integration in the canadian market employing both the capm and the apt frameworks since tests of market integration are joint tests of a specified model and market integration a relevant question is whether the two models produce different inferences pertaining to the integration issue in addition we explore this issue in a period that is

the exchange rate exposure of u s multinationals this article examines the exposure of u s multinationals to foreign currency risk evidence is presented that the relationship between stock returns and exchange rates differs systematically across multinationals given these results the study focuses on the determinants of exchange rate exposure the comovements between stock returns and the value of the dollar is found to be positively related to the percentage of foreign operations of u s multinationals copyright 1990 by the university of chicago

bilateral trade flows the linder hypothesis and exchange risk bilateral trade flows are used to examine the linder hypothesis and the effect of exchange rate variability in a gra vity type trade model derived from an underlying demand and supply mo del a behavioral model is used to justify examining these issues joi ntly the model performs well empirically using a sample of seventeen countries for the period 1974 82 the authors find overwhelming supp ort for the linder hypothesis and this version of the gravity model moreover they find strong support for the hypothesis that increased exchange rate variability affects bilateral trade flows copyright 1987 by mit press

demand and supply factors in the determination of nie exports a simultaneous error correction model for hong kong this paper considers the issue of whether a small developing economy such as hong kong faces a perfectly elastic demand for its exports of manufactured goods we construct a simultaneous demand and supply system which is estimated using full information maximum likelihood methods and which allows us to clearly identify demand and supply factors in determining export volumes and prices our empirical findings differ from previous studies conducted with this data set in that they suggest that even a small dynamic newly industrialized economy such as hong kong may not face infinitely elastic demand for its manufactured goods we also advance some reasons to explain why the small country assumption may not be applicable in the case of most industrialized economies

exchange rate volatility international trade and the value of exporting firms abstract increased exchange rate volatility positively affects the value of exporting firms via the price and volume impacts of exchange rates and also makes an exporting strategy more attractive relative to the direct investment investment in export production capacity could therefore be a positive function of exchange rate volatility firms would also be more willing to sustain losses i e to engage in dumping before they abandon their export markets the effect on the volume and value of trade is ambiguous

conditional exchange rate volatility and the volume of international trade evidence from the early 1900s exports from britain to the united states from 1900 to 1940 are examined to ascertain the effect of exchange rate volatility on the volume of trade in addition to using a rolling standard deviation measure of exchange rate uncertainty the conditional variance of the exchange rate series modeled as a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic process is used to generate an alternative measure of exchange rate uncertainty the results of estimation using the two measures of exchange rate volatility suggest that increases in the volatility of the real exchange rate reduce the volume of trade copyright 1992 by mit press

emerging market exchange rate exposure abstract we estimate the exposure of emerging market companies to fluctuations in their domestic exchange rates we use an instrumental variable approach that identifies the total exposure of a company to exchange rate movements yet abstracts from the influence of confounding macroeconomic shocks in the sub period of 1999 2002 we find that depreciations tend to have a negative impact on emerging market stock returns in the sub period of 2002 2006 this tendency has largely disappeared since we estimate the exchange rate exposure of firms from different countries with a common set of instruments we can make coherent cross country comparisons of their determinants we find that the impact of various measures of debt on exchange rate exposure which is negative and significant in the early sub period becomes insignificant and even reverses sign in the recent sub period

exchange rate variability and the export demand for malaysia s semiconductors an empirical study this article examines the effects of exchange rate variability on export demand for semiconductors which is the largest sub sector of electronics industry in malaysia as reported by malaysian industrial development authority mida 2004 the empirical results which are estimated based on the johansen s multivariate cointegration tests and error correction model suggest that there is a unique long run relationship among quantities of export relative price real foreign income and real exchange rate variability the major finding of this article is that the variability of real exchange rate has some effect on semiconductor exports in both the long run and the short run in the light of rapid advances in technology in the global markets for electronics products the findings are useful to policy makers for the design and target of appropriate exchange rate and industrial policies to enhance the export competitiveness of semiconductor industry

foreign exchange exposure and impact of policy switch the case of malaysian listed firms this article undertakes an in depth study of the foreign exchange exposure of malaysian listed firms we examine several issues related to firm specific and overall exposure including an evaluation of the efficacy of adopting a hard peg on such exposure our sample consists of 158 listed firms and spans the 16 year period 1990 2005 a multivariate model using four bilateral exchange rates is used to determine firm level exposure while panel data analysis using a random effects generalized least squares gls model is used to determine system wide or aggregate sample exposure we find a total 71 of our sample firms to have significant exchange rate exposure a rate substantially higher than that reported for most countries especially developed ones the us is by far the single most important source of exposure with 63 of sample firms exposed to it the sign of the beta coefficient for three of the four currencies are negative implying that our sample firms are largely net importers in these currenci

exchange rate expectation formation process a consistency test this paper investigates the consistency property of exchange rate expectations formation process using cointegration techniques the consistency property is a precursor to testing the rationality of the expectation formation process though it is weaker than rationality the results support cointegratability between the spot and the expectation exchange rate series thus upholding the consistency hypothesis

has exchange risk depressed international trade the impact of third country exchange risk abstract this paper argues that the effect of exchange risk on bilateral and aggregate trade flows should be analyzed by including the impact of third country exchange risk factors in addition to direct bilateral or multilateral risk after a theoretical examination of these effects us bilateral export flow to its six largest trading partners are analyzed empirically i find individuality and jointly significant third country risk effects in most cases in contrast to some recent bilateral efforts i find a steadily growing negative impact on trade flows from exchange risk during floating and in contrast to recent aggregate trade flow studies i conclude that there was no temporary decline in exchange risk during the late 1970s

the effect of exchange rate variability on trade the case of the west african monetary union s imports abstract the west african monetary union during the period of this study 1976 1982 comprised six countries benin burkina faso co te d ivoire niger senegal and togo since their common currency the cfa franc has been pegged to the french franc at an unchanged rate since 1948 the entire nominal exchange rate variability that traders in the region face is due to movements in the french franc with respect to other currencies in the face of exchange rate risk that is not always coverable trade should be adversely affected using three measures of variability in the nominal effective exchange rate index this paper finds that exchange rate variability has not affected the union s real imports or the diversification of trade away from the franc zone

exchange rate variability and the flow of international trade abstract this study uses a garch generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model to test if real exchange rate volatility has an adverse effect on the value of u s imports from canada we find that exchange rate uncertainty has a negative and statistically significant affect on trade flows