directed matching and monetary exchange we develop a model of monetary exchange where as in the random matching literature agents trade bilaterally and not through centralized markets rather than assuming they match exogenously and at random however we determine who meets whom as part of the equilibrium we show how to formalize this process of directed matching in dynamic models with double coincidence problems and present several examples and applications that illustrate how the approach can be used in monetary theory some of our results are similar to those in the random matching literature others differ significantly

seasonality leading indicators and alternative business cycle theories rolling regressions and granger causality tests are used to examine the predictive ability of seasonally adjusted and unadjusted leading economic indicators for the us economy many of the unadjusted variables perform better than their adjusted counterparts but asymmetric behaviour is also evident alternative leading indicators such as the bond spread and the fed funds rate do not predict cycles as well as real money balances unadjusted real business failure liabilities and business formation also appear to perform well

macroeconomic implications of production bunching factor demand linkages abstract existing empirical evidence suggests that output is more variable than consumption so that production smoothing is not apparently present in this paper we investigate some macroeconomic implications of the proposition that the empirical evidence reflects the presence of some firms in the economy that produce with nonconvex technologies overall when activities are sufficiently complementary and inventory holding is sufficiently costly nonconvexities at the firm level can generate a pattern of output and sales such that the variance of output exceeds that of sales at an aggregate level in this way nonconvexities at the individual firm level may have macroeconomic consequences

further evidence on the asymmetric behavior of economic time series over the business cycle evidence has recently been presented by salih neftci to support the hypothesis that recessions in economic activity tend to be steeper and more short lived than recoveries in economic activity that evidence however was confined to the behavior of the unemployment rate in the united states in this paper it is shown that when neftci s methods are applied to analyze the behavior of real gross national product investment and productivity in the united states or when they are used to analyze industrial production abroad the asymmetry hypothesis seems to be less compelling

money is privacy an extensive literature in monetary theory has emphasized the role of money as a record keeping device money assumes this role in situations where using credit would be too costly and some might argue that this role will diminish as the cost of information and thus the cost of credit based transactions continues to fall in this paper we investigate another use for money the provision of privacy that is a money purchase does not identify the purchaser while a credit purchase does in a simple trading economy with moral hazard the efficiency of money is compared with that of credit and we find that money may be useful even when information is free

money and credit as means of payment a new monetarist approach abstract we study the choice of payment instruments in a model with money and credit where sellers must invest in a record keeping technology to accept credit and buyers have limited commitment our model captures the two sided market interaction between consumers and retailers that can generate multiple equilibria limited commitment yields an endogenous debt limit that depends on monetary policy money and credit coexist for a range of parameters and bargaining related hold up problems can lead to inefficiencies in the adoption of monitoring technologies changes in monetary policy generate multiplier effects in the credit market due to complementarities between consumer borrowing and the adoption of credit by merchants

issues involved with the seasonal adjustment of economic time series in the first part of this article we briefly review the history of seasonal adjustment and statistical time series analysis in order to understand why seasonal adjustment methods have evolved into their present form this review provides insight into some of the problems that must be addressed by seasonal adjustment procedures and points out that advances in modem time series analysis raise the question of whether seasonal adjustment should be performed at all this in turn leads to a discussion in the second part of issues involved in seasonal adjustment we state our opinions about the issues raised and review some of the work of other authors first we comment on reasons that have been given for doing seasonal adjustment and suggest a new possible justification we then emphasize the need to define precisely the seasonal and nonseasonal components and offer our definitions finally we discuss criteria for evaluating seasonal adjustments we contend that proposed criteria based on empirical compariso

assets and actions firm specific factors in the internationalization of u s internet firms by providing a nearly instant connection among parties at opposite corners of the world and enabling a variety of commercial exchanges the internet emerged as the technology expected to create a truly global market space internet firms faced the challenge of capitalizing on this development in this paper we examine what firm specific factors are associated with the propensity of pure u s based internet firms to enhance their international presence on the internet by developing country specific websites despite the assertion that all internet firms are born global our findings show that the pursuit of internationalization by internet firms is related to the levels of their intangible assets and strategic activity two types of intangible assets reputation and website traffic are positively related to the degree of internationalization so are the levels of competitive and cooperative activity and the interaction effects between reputation and competitive and cooperative activity these findings suggest that ideas from both resource based theory and research on competitive dynamics can contribute to understanding the internationalization of internet firms

was the recent downturn in us real gdp predictable this article uses a small set of variables real gdp the inflation rate and the short term interest rate and a rich set of models atheoretical time series and theoretical structural linear and nonlinear as well as classical and bayesian models to consider whether we could have predicted the recent downturn of the us real gdp comparing the performance of the models to the benchmark random walk model by root mean square errors the two structural theoretical models especially the nonlinear model perform well on average across all forecast horizons in our ex post out of sample forecasts although at specific forecast horizons certain nonlinear atheoretical models perform the best the nonlinear theoretical model also dominates in our ex ante out of sample forecast of the great recession suggesting that developing forward looking microfounded nonlinear dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models of the economy may prove crucial in forecasting turning points

seasonality and habit persistence in a life cycle model of consumption summary the allocation of non durable consumers expenditure over the four quarters of the year reflects choices made by consumers implying a utility function exhibiting seasonality incorporating such a function the life cycle model fails to explain fully the observed dynamics in uk seasonally unadjusted data seasonal habit persistence effects are introduced and found to be significant although this generalized model stands up well to testing in a univariate context it fails to exclude a predictive role for lagged income changes seasonality is inherent in many economic time series but it is rarely considered to be an issue of interest in econometric model building rather than explicitly investigating the economics underlying seasonal variation modellers typically try to remove its effects either by using seasonally adjusted data or by including seasonal intercept dummies in their equations the former practice is criticized by wallis 1974 who shows that it may distort the relationship between variab le the latter assumes that the function simply shifts up or down with the season however except for degrees of freedom considerations there seems to be no a priori reason why the same parameters or functional form should apply at different times of the year indeed gersovitz and mackinnon 1978 argue that realistic utility cost or production functions result in models in which seasonal influences cannot be separated out in a simple fashion in the present study seasonality is treated as one of the features to be explained within the economic model thus in the particular application to non durable consumers expenditure it is argued that the allocation of expenditure over the year reflects seasonal tastes and hence seasonality in the underlying utility function the implications of this are explicitly investigated the framework for our analysis is the influential paper by hall 1978 who derives a randomwalk model for real non durable consumers expenditure when rational expectations are combined with a life cycle theory of consumption hall does not investigate seasonality at all and employs seasonally adjusted values in his empirical analysis although subsequent us authors have examined many aspects of this theory the type of data used has rarely been

a search model of money and circulating private debt with applications to monetary policy a search theoretic model is used to examine the coexistence of money and circulating private debt money is still valued even though there coexists credit which circulates among agents and dominates in the rate of return when there coexist multiple equilibria the equilibrium with credit pareto dominates the one without credit if money supply is not extremely plentiful this article also provides some predictions about the effects of monetary policies a policy of open market operations whereby government discounts less for second hand debt decreases the value of money credit and interest rate prevailing in the market this policy can also improve welfare by making credit trade feasible when the only equilibrium entails no credit without intervention

money credit and banking in monetary models where agents are subject to trading shocks there is typically an ex post inefficiency since some agents are holding idle balances while others are cash constrained this problem creates a role for financial intermediaries such as banks who accept nominal deposits and make nominal loans in general financial intermediation improves the allocation the gains in welfare come from the payment of interest on deposits and not from relaxing borrowers liquidity constraints we also demonstrate that when credit rationing occurs increasing the rate of inflation can be welfare improving

does seasonality change over the business cycle an investigation using monthly industrial production series abstract this paper examines the proposition that the business cycle affects seasonality in industrial production with output being switched to the traditionally low production summer months when recent annual growth has been strong this is investigated through the use of a restricted threshold autoregressive model for the monthly growth rate in a total of 74 industries in 16 oecd countries approximately one third of the series exhibit significant nonlinearity with this nonlinearity predominantly associated with changes in the seasonal pattern estimates show that the summer slowdown in many european countries is substantially reduced in the regime of higher recent growth

evil is the root of all money plenary talk delivered at the annual meeting of the society for economic dynamics this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

optimal monetary policy in a model of money and credit we investigate the extent to which monetary policy can enhance the functioning of the private credit system specifically we characterize the optimal return on money in the presence of credit arrangements there is a dual role for credit it allows buyers to trade without fiat money and also permits them to borrow against future income however not all traders have access to credit as a result there is a social role for fiat money because it allows agents to self insure against the risk of not being able to use credit in some transactions we consider a nonlinear monetary mechanism that is designed to enhance the credit system an active monetary policy is sufficient for relaxing credit constraints finally we characterize the optimal monetary policy and show that it necessarily entails a positive inflation rate

cultural influences on managerial choice an empirical study of employee benefit plans in the united states the objective of this study is to determine the effect of culture on the provision of employee benefits cultural influences have been investigated from a variety of perspectives but not in the context of pension and welfare benefits using unique data this study analyzes the level of coverage of employee benefits in the united states results indicate that culture does have an effect on the provision of these benefits

credit and identity theft abstract the quintessential crime of the information age is identity theft the malicious use of personal identifying data in this paper we model identity and its use in credit transactions various types of identity theft occur in equilibrium including new account fraud existing account fraud and friendly fraud the equilibrium incidence of identity theft represents a tradeoff between a desire to avoid costly or invasive monitoring of individuals on the one hand and the need to control transactions fraud on the other our results suggest that technological advances will not eliminate this tradeoff

measuring business cycles a modern perspective in the first half of this century special attention was given to two features of the business cycle 1 the comovement of many individual economic series and 2 the different behavior of the economy during expansions and contractions both of these attributes were ignored in many subsequent business cycle models which were often linear representations of a single macroeconomic aggregate however recent theoretical and empirical research has revived interest in each attribute separately notably dynamic factor models have been used to obtain a single common factor from a set of macroeconomic variables and nonlinear models have been used to describe the regime switching nature of aggregate output we survey these two strands of research and then provide some suggestive empirical analysis in an effort to unite the two literatures and to assess their usefulness in a statistical characterization of business cycle dynamics

on the coexistence of money and higher return assets and its social role this paper adopts mechanism design to investigate the coexistence of at money and higherreturn assets we consider an economy with pairwise meetings where at money and riskfree capital compete as means of payment as in lagos and rocheteau 2008 the trading mechanism in pairwise meetings is chosen among all individually rational renegotiation proof mechanisms to maximize society s welfare we show that in any stationary monetary equilibrium capital commands a higher rate of return than at money

secondary currency an empirical analysis abstract many cases exist of multiple currency usage throughout history as two leading examples secondary currencies were widespread during both the great depression in the united states and the 2002 recession in argentina what are the determinants of multiple currency usage and what is the effect on economic activity both issues are empirically addressed using individual level surveys collected by the authors in argentina during 2002 and 2003 the evidence supports the theoretically predicted determinants of secondary currency acceptability put forth in monetary theory in particular findings show that the acceptability of the secondary currency increases when the supply of national currency is low the relative transaction cost of the secondary currency is low and the individual trading technologies are less effective moreover the acceptability of the secondary currency has real effects on economic activity among those who use the secondary currency the monthly income gain is more than 15 of the average argentine s monthly income excluding trades of used goods this amounts to a 0 6 increase in gdp

the conventional treatment of seasonality in business cycle analysis does it create distortions abstract no so says one model that is broadly consistent with postwar u s seasonal and business cycle data

search bargaining money and prices the goal of this paper is to extend existing search theoretic models of fiat money which until now have assumed that the price level is exogenous by explicitly incorporating bilateral bargaining this allows us to determine the price level endogenously and leads to additional insights concerning the role of money for example we find that monetary equilibria are generally inefficient in the sense that output and prices differ from the solution to a social planner s problem although the difference can become small as the discount rate or search friction vanishes we also find that there exist nonstationary inflationary equilibria

managers gender role attitudes a country institutional profile approach in this paper we use the country institutional profile to investigate how selected cognitive normative and regulative aspects of various countries relate to traditional gender role attitudes of managers from these countries our cross level analyses using hierarchical linear modeling control for a number of individual characteristics i e age education gender and social class results support our hypotheses that managers traditional gender role attitudes relate positively to nation level uncertainty avoidance and power distance moreover the results support our predictions that gender egalitarian normative institutions degree of regulation and degree of educational development are negatively related to managers traditional gender role attitudes however results reject our hypotheses regarding nation level religiosity assertiveness and masculinity not showing the proposed relationship with managers traditional gender role attitudes implications for research and practice are discussed

money and collateral this paper presents a model in which money and collateral are both essential and complement each other as media of exchange the model has implications for asset prices output in ation and monetary policy both in steady state and

the aggregate implications of machine replacement theory and evidence the authors study an economy in which producers incur resource costs to replace depreciated machines the process of costly replacement and depreciation creates endogenous fluctuations in productivity employment and output of a single producer the authors explore the spillover effects of machine replacement on other sectors of the economy and provide conditions for synchronized machine replacement by multiple independent producers the implications of their model are generally consistent with observed monthly output employment and productivity fluctuations in automobile plants synchronization of retooling across plants within the auto industry is widespread so that the fluctuations observed at the plant level have aggregate implications copyright 1993 by american economic association

assessing the effects of culture on managerial attitudes a three culture test cross cultural studies are inherently difficult because the typical research design fails to differentiate cultural from other environmental influences the present study uses a research design that attempts to isolate the influence of culture japanese chinese and mexican managers their ethnic american counterparts and anglo americans are used to test the model results indicate unique persistent cultural characteristics with the cultural effect varying among the three groups of managers

coexistence of money and interest bearing securities abstract a random matching model with money is used to study the nominal yield on small denomination bearer safe discount securities issued by the government there is always one steady state with matured securities circulating at par and for some parameters another with them circulating at a discount in the former a necessary and sufficient condition for a positive nominal yield on not yet matured securities is exogenous discriminatory treatment of them by the government in the latter the post maturity discount on securities induces a deeper pre maturity discount even without such discriminatory treatment

have postwar economic fluctuations been stabilized previous investigations of whether the volatility of the u s economy diminished after world war ii have been inconclusive because of questionable prewar macroeconomic aggregates we examine more broadly the hypothesis of the stabilization of the postwar economy by focusing on the duration of business cycles rather than their amplitude in the process we avoid the debate about the quality of prewar aggregates using distribution free statistics we find clear evidence of postwar duration stabilization in terms of a shift toward longer expansions and shorter contractions moreover we find no shift in whole cycle durations which suggests a reallocation of the business cycle away from contraction and toward expansion

money and credit redux do we need both money and credit in models with explicit roles for payment instruments we show the answer is no if credit is easy money is useless if credit is tight money can be essential but then credit is irrelevant and changes in debt limits are neutral real balances respond endogenously to leave total liquidity constant this is true for exogenous or endogenous policy and debt limits secured or unsecured credit and fairly general preferences and pricing mechanisms while we also show how to overturn some results the benchmark model suggests credit conditions matter less than some people think

generalized search theoretic models of monetary exchange abstract virtually all simple search models of money assume agents with money cannot produce and so everyone has either 0 or 1 units of money in steady state we alternatively assume agents can always produce and simply restrict money inventories to 0 or 1 this seems better for many issues for example in the standard model it is difficult to interpret increases in the money supply because increasing the fraction of agents holding money decreases the economy s productive capacity our model avoids these problems and thus delivers more natural and simpler implications in many contexts we compare results on existence multiplicity and welfare across models

the impact of journals and authors on international business research a citational analysis of jibs articles in this paper we use citational analysis to examine the influence of individuals and disciplines on international business research we collected citational data over the ten year period 1984 to 1993 from every issue of the journal of international business studies we found that management economics marketing and finance disciplines have had significant influence on international business research and identified researchers such as dunning porter vernon casson rugman and hofstede as having made significant contributions to international business research

a typology of management studies involving culture as a methodological review this paper delineates 6 approaches to researching cross cultural management issues parochial ethnocentric polycentric comparative geocentric and synergistic for each approach assumptions are discussed concerning the similarity and difference across cultures and the extent to which management phenomena are or are not universal the primary types of management questions which can be addressed using each approach are clarified main methodological issues which must be addressed are listed

the cost of inflation a mechanism design approach abstract i apply mechanism design to quantify the cost of inflation that can be attributed to monetary frictions alone in an environment with pairwise meetings the money demand that is consistent with an optimal incentive feasible allocation takes the form of a continuous correspondence that can fit the data over the period 1900 2006 for such parameterizations the cost of moderate inflation is zero this result is robust to the introduction of match specific heterogeneity and endogenous participation decisions

applying the seasonal error correction model to the demand for international reserves in taiwan abstract a dynamic demand function for international reserves based on the seasonal difference is derived our model of using seasonal difference distinguishes the present study from previous studies in three aspects first the dependent variable is seasonally differenced instead of being first order differenced next the local money market disequilibrium included is also in fourth difference form finally given the existence of stochastic seasonality a new model using a seasonal error correction rather than the conventional error correction is specified and estimated based on this new specification the results yielded are more sensible than those of using a differenced model

the essentiality of money in environments with centralized trade abstract lagos and wright 2005 introduced an influential model of monetary exchange in which trade alternates between centralized and decentralized markets and money is essential a limitation of their model and of the literature that follows is that they do not provide a microfoundation for the process of exchange in the centralized market in this paper we show that how one models exchange in the centralized market matters for the essentiality of money by describing the centralized market as a strategic market game and studying conditions under which money is essential

another example of a credit system that co exists with money we study an economy in which exchange occurs pairwise there is no commitment and anonymous agents choose between random monetary trade or deterministic credit trade to accomplish the latter agents can exploit a costly technology that allows limited record keeping and enforcement an equilibrium with money and credit is shown to exist if the cost of using the technology is sufficiently small anonymity record keeping and enforcement limitations also permit some incidence of default in equilibrium

money as a mechanism in a bewley economy we study what features an economic environment might possess such that it would be pareto ecient for the exchange of goods in that environment to be conducted on spot markets where those goods trade for money we prove a conjecture that is essentially due to bewley 1980 1983 the gist is that monetary spot trading is nearly ecient ex ante in an environment where very patient agents can accumulate large enough money stocks to be completely self insured we also study examples where a nonmonetary mechanism is preferred ex ante to any monetary mechanism at least when the comparison is restricted to stationary equilibria and where an inflationary monetary mechanism is preferred ex ante to a laissez faire or deflationary monetary mechanism in an environment with impatient agents j e l classification e31 e42

national culture and corporate debt maturity abstract we investigate the influence of national culture on corporate debt maturity choice based on the framework of williamson we argue that culture located in social embeddedness level can shape contracting environments by serving as an informal constraint that affects human actors incentives and choices in market exchange we therefore expect national culture to be related to debt maturity structure after controlling for legal political financial and economic institutions using hofstede s four cultural dimensions uncertainty avoidance collectivism power distance and masculinity as proxies for culture and using a sample of 114 723 firm years from 40 countries over the 1991 2006 period we find robust evidence that firms located in countries with high uncertainty avoidance high collectivism high power distance and high masculinity tend to use more short term debt we interpret our results as consistent with the view that national culture helps explain cross country variations in the maturity structure of corporate debt

viewpoint a microfoundation of monetary economics in this lecture i explain what the microfoundations of money are about and why they are necessary for monetary economics then i review recent developments of a particular microfoundation of money commonly known as the search theory of money finally i outline some unresolved issues dans cette presentation l auteur explique ce que sont les microfondations de la monnaie et pourquoi elles sont necessaires a l economie monetaire ensuite il passe en revue certains developpements recents d une microfondation particuliere de la monnaie connue sous le nom de theorie de la recherche de la monnaie enfin l auteur fait le tour d un ensemble de problemes qui restent sans solution pour le moment

lack of recall and centralized monetary trade we introduce lack of recall of past transactions as an alternative assumption to anonymity in a model where trade is centralized in environments where there is an intertemporal lack of double coincidence of wants problem and lack ofcommitment lack of recall can give rise to monetary equilibria that dominate nonmonetary outcomes in terms of welfare

interactions between real economic and financial sides of the us economy in a regime switching environment this objective of this study is to examine the linkages between real economic and financial variables in the united states in a regime switching environment that accounts explicitly for high volatility in the stock market and high stress in financial markets since the linearity test shows that the linear model should be rejected we employ the markov switching vecm to examine the same objective using the bayesian markov chain monte carlo method the regime dependent impulse response function rdirf highlights the increasing importance of the financial sector of the economy during stress periods the responses and their fluctuations are significantly greater in the high volatility regime than in the low volatility regime

the nature of occupational unemployment rates in the united states hysteresis or structural this article provides new evidence on the nature of occupational differences in unemployment dynamics which is relevant for the debate between the structural or hysteresis hypotheses we develop a procedure that permits us to test for the presence of a structural break at unknown date our approach allows the investigation of a broader range of persistence than the 0 1 paradigm about the order of integration usually implemented for testing the hypothesis of hysteresis in occupational unemployment in almost all occupations we find support for both the structuralist and the hysteresis hypotheses but stress the importance of estimating the degree of persistence of seasonal shocks along with the degree of long run persistence on raw data without applying seasonal filters indeed hysteresis appears to be underestimated when data are initially adjusted using traditional seasonal filters

liquidity and asset prices a new monetarist approach abstract when lenders cannot force borrowers to repay debts assets are often pledged to secure loans in this paper borrowers lose collateral once they renege on debts and exclusion of defaulters occurs probabilistically with a higher probability implying better enforcement increased efficiency in enforcement reduces asset prices while raising loan to value ratios if the rise in loan to value ratios is the dominant effect aggregate liquidity and output increase with the advance in enforcement inflation raises the repayment cost by increasing the loan rate while raising the default cost through exclusion consequently inflation raises loan to value ratios and output only when enforcement is sufficiently efficient

on money as a medium of exchange we analyze economies in which individuals specialize in consumption and production and meet randomly over time in a way that implies that trade must be bilateral and quid pro quo nash equilibria in trading strategies are characterized certain goods emerge endogenously as media of exchange or commodity money depending both on their intrinsic properties and on extrinsic beliefs there are also equilibria with genuine fiat currency circulating as the general medium of exchange we find that equilibria are not generally pareto optimal and that introducing fiat currency into a commodity money economy may unambiguously improve welfare velocity acceptability and liquidity are discussed

does family employment enhance mses performance integrating socioemotional wealth and family embeddedness perspectives abstract this paper analyzes the effect of family employment on performance in micro and small enterprises mses by combining two research perspectives that until now have been conducted separately the family embeddedness perspective of entrepreneurship aldrich and cliff 2003 and the socioemotional wealth sew approach to family business gomez mejia et al 2007 our integrated perspective allows us to highlight how the nature of the employment relationships in mses enhances the benefits derived from the socioemotional endowment associated with family labor and reduces the opportunity costs of employing relatives moreover we assert that this relationship is moderated by specific family characteristics that determine the firm s ability to preserve the sew while at the same time pursuing financial goals our results provide partial support to the enhancing role of family labour on mses performance employing family members increases sales but decreases profitability as measured by roa this effect also results in improved performance for women led firms and for firms that have received family funding but impairs mses performance when the business is the main source of the owner s household income

are economic time series asymmetric over the business cycle it has long been argued that major cyclical variables such as the unemployment rate display an asymmetric behavior over various phases of the business cycle the paper provides a statistical test for this hypothesis using the framework of finite state markov processes i implement a test to see if the behavior of the unemployment rate is characterized by sudden jumps and slower drops it is argued that the framework provided in the paper can also be used to test other sample path properties of economic time series

using cash to monitor liquidity implications for payments currency demand and withdrawal behavior this paper provides one explanation why cash is still used for transactions despite a broad diffusion of noncash payment instruments in particular we argue that a distinctive feature of cash a glance into one s pocket gives a signal of the remaining budget and past expenses provides utility to some consumers using payment survey data we show that consumers who need to keep control over their remaining liquidity and who have elevated costs of information processing conduct a larger percentage of payments using cash withdraw less often and hold larger cash balances than other consumers

the size of meetings and the role of money abstract i extend the random matching model of money by allowing the number of people in a random meeting to be greater than two a parameter n i prove that any beneficial role of money disappears as n

existence of steady states with positive consumption in the kiyotaki wright model we prove the general existence of steady states with positive consumption in an n goods and fiat money version of the kiyotaki wright model by admitting mixed strategies we also show that there always exists a steady state in which everyone accepts a least costly to store object in particular if fiat money is one such object then there always exists a monetary steady state we also establish some other properties of steady states and comment on the relationship between steady states and incentive feasible allocations

nominal bonds and interest rates in this article i integrate the microfoundation of monetary theory with the model of limited participation to analyze the competition between nominal bonds and money the market for government nominal bonds is centralized and walrasian whereas the goods market is modeled as random matches the government imposes a legal restriction that requires all government goods to be purchased with money but not with bonds by contrast private agents can exchange between themselves with both money and bonds i show that an arbitrarily small legal restriction is sufficient to prevent matured bonds from being a medium of exchange i also analyze the effects of monetary policy with and without the legal restriction some of those effects differ significantly from traditional monetary models

recent advances in modelling seasonality abstract in this paper we review recent developments in econometric modelling of economic time series with seasonality the prime focus is on econometric models which incorporate explicit descriptions of seasonal variation instead of removing this variation using a seasonal adjustment method this review centres around developments in seasonal unit root models and in periodic parameter models both in the univariate and multivariate context several empirical examples are used for illustration we also discuss several areas for further research

comments on howitt s beyond search fiat money in organized exchange studying efficient ways to organize exchange is one of the objectives of monetary theory shapley and shubik 1977 were among the first to pose a static model that organized multilateral exchange at trading posts between agents who have endowments of goods that may differ from what they prefer to consume in this issue howitt 2005 studies a dynamic environment with some of the explicit spatial information and enforcement frictions employed in search models of money e g kiyotaki and wright 1993 but which allows directed matching to trading posts or shops howitt studies the conditions under which a fiat medium of exchange dominates an alternative method of exchange barter at shops trading posts which are restricted to exchange in only two goods mitigate search costs between households but are themselves costly to operate there are n nonstorable goods in his economy and n n 1 household types i e each household is endowed with one of the n goods but desires one of the other n 1 goods in any active symmetric equilibrium the minimum number of barter shops that must open is n n 1 2 whereas only n monetary shops are necessary since a merchant incurs a fixed cost to run a shop it is then clear that monetary exchange economizes on such costs on the other hand for monetary exchange to take place in this spatial setting consumption this period must be paid for with money earned last period which is not necessary for barter howitt shows proposition 4 that if a monetary equilibrium exists then it is pareto efficient since it minimizes the fixed costs associated with multilateral exchange and bilateral exchange is ruled out by assumptions in the environment conditions for the existence of a monetary equilibrium in the presence of barter alternatives which depend on the size of the fixed costs and the household s discount factor are provided in proposition 3

the cultural relativity of organizational practices and theories this paper summarizes the author s recently published findings about differences in people s work related values among 50 countries in view of these differences ethnocen tric management theories those based on the value system of one particular country have become untenable this concept is illustrated for the fields of leadership organization and motivation a key issue for organization science is the influence of national cultures on introduction management twenty or even 10 years ago the existence of a relationship be management and tween management and national cultures was far from obvious to many and it national cultures may not be obvious to everyone even now in the 1950s and 60s the dominant be lief at least in europe and the u s was that management was something univer sal there were principles of sound management which existed regardless of na tional environments if national or local practice deviated from these principles it was time to change local practice in the future the universality of sound manage ment practices would lead to societies becoming more and more alike this ap plied even to the poor countries of the third world which would become rich as well and would be managed just like the rich countries also the differences be tween management in the first and second world capitalist and socialist would disappear in fact under the surface they were thought to be a lot smaller than was officially recognized this way of thinking which dominated the 1950s and 60s is known as the convergence hypothesis during the 1970s the belief in the unavoidable convergence of management prac tices waned it was too obviously in conflict with the reality we saw around us at the same time supranational organizations like the european common market which were founded very much on the convergence belief had to recognize the stubbornness of national differences even within existing nations regional dif ferences became more rather than less accentuated the welsh the flemish the basques the bangladeshi the quebecois defended their own identity and this was difficult to reconcile with a management philosophy of convergence it slowly became clear that national and even regional cultures do matter for management the national and regional differences are not disappearing they are here to stay in fact these differences may become one of the most crucial problems for man agement in particular for the management of multinational multicultural orga nizations whether public or private

a model of carbon price interactions with macroeconomic and energy dynamics abstract this paper develops a model of carbon pricing by considering two fundamental drivers of european union allowances economic activity and energy prices on the one hand economic activity is proxied by aggregated industrial production in the eu 27 as it provides the best performance in a preliminary forecasting exercise vs other indicators on the other hand brent natural gas and coal prices are selected as being the main carbon price drivers as highlighted by previous literature the interactions between the macroeconomic and energy spheres are captured in a markov switching var model with two states that is able to reproduce the boom bust business cycle hamilton 1989 first industrial production is found to impact positively negatively the carbon market during periods of economic expansion recession thereby confirming the existence of a link between the macroeconomy and the price of carbon second the brent price is confirmed to be the leader in price formation among energy markets bachmeier and griffin 2006 as it impacts other variables through the structure of the markov switching model taken together these results uncover new interactions between the recently created eu emissions market and the pre existing macroeconomic energy environment

business cycle duration dependence a parametric approach this paper reexamines duration dependence in u s business cycles using parametric hazard models positive duration dependence would indicate that expansions or contractions are more likely to end as they become older this paper provides statistically significant evidence of positive duration dependence for expansions before world war ii and contractions after world war ii the evidence is stronger than in earlier research utilizing nonparametric techniques because certain nonparametric techniques have low statistical power against the type of duration dependence found in this paper evidence is also presented suggesting that expansions became longer on average after world war ii while contractions became shorter copyright 1991 by mit press

on the complementarity of money and credit i propose a model where agents choose to conduct their business using two payment instruments money and bilateral credit a friction in the timing of transactions rationalizes the use of both instruments and makes it optimal for agents to use money as a means of settlement for credit money and credit complement each other with anticipated inflation complementarity implies that the credit to money ratio decreases with inflation

long swings in exchange rates are they really in the data several authors have reported evidence of long swings in u s dollar exchange rates by rejecting the random walk in favor of a markov regime switching model we show that this evidence is not robust to an extension of the sample period one should however not conclude that long swings are thus absent because the tests may have insufficient power a possible reason for this is the low data frequency because existing tests are based on quarterly data and we find that the power can be increased substantially by raising the data frequency indeed weekly data reject the random walk so we conclude that long swings are in the data this conclusion is supported by significant superiority of regime switching over random walk out of sample forecasts of the direction of change

testing for a santa claus effect in growth cycles abstract we examine the seasonal distribution of turning points in the post war growth cycles of sixteen economies using nonparametric tests for distributions on the circle we cannot reject a uniform distribution for the turning points for most of the countries in the case of troughs uniformity is supported for eleven countries notwithstanding the unusually large number of december or january troughs this provides evidence against a santa claus effect in the growth cycle

on the periodic structure of the business cycle this article tests whether an economic recovery is equally likely to occur in any month of the year i test this hypothesis with a homogeneous markov switching regime model and use the turning point dates for business cycles marked by the national bureau of economic research and romer i tend to find unequal probabilities to switch from recession to expansions in particular the spring and the month of december appear to have higher incidence of economic recovery my results also imply that recessions and expansions are on average longer or shorter depending on what time of the year they start this suggests the presence of a seasonal pattern in business cycle durations though such a notion of seasonality is quite different from the common one based on unobserved component linear time series models i investigate issues that go beyond linear dependence between seasonality and business cycles

attitudes towards women s career advancement in latin america the moderating impact of perceived company international proactiveness while companies operating in latin america have witnessed increased female leadership participation the region remains characterized by traditional gender role attitudes this juxtaposition of traditional machismo attitudes towards women along with progress in women s leadership participation make this setting ideal for examining a topic of continued worldwide debate women s career advancement this study examines attitudes towards the career advancement of women a historically marginalized group in latin america building on the extant literature we test the negative association between traditional gender role orientations and attitudes towards women s career advancement both directly and via a mediated relationship through acceptance of women in the workplace we then theoretically and empirically extend this literature by examining an important context related moderator a company s international proactiveness which we contend serves as a mechanism for keeping traditional machismo attitudes from manifesting we examine these relationships within a sample of 973 respondents within the latin american countries of argentina bolivia brazil chile colombia dominican republic ecuador mexico panama peru and venezuela our findings support our hypotheses and provide practical insight into the important yet generally not considered effects of a company s internationalization efforts on attitudes towards the career advancement of women

an investigation of gender differences in leadership across four countries this study investigates the emphasis males and females place on leadership behaviors and styles across four countries characterized as two cultural dyads norway sweden and australia u s previous gender comparisons and cross cultural studies of leadership are reviewed a framework for exploring leadership consisting of five leadership behaviors and six leadership styles is then presented and tested with questionnaire data from 209 managers across the four countries results demonstrate significant effects for gender and country but no interaction effects post hoc analyses suggest that across all four countries male emphasize the goal setting dimension while females emphasize the interaction facilitation dimension australians scored significantly differently than leaders in the other countries on interaction facilitation benevolent autocratic style and laissez faire style these findings are discussed in light of gender characteristics and cultural values

incomplete record keeping and optimal payment arrangements abstract we study a random matching absence of double coincidence environment in which people cannot precommit and in which there are two imperfect ways to keep track of what other people have done in the past money and a public record of all past actions that is updated with an average lag we study how the magnitude of that lag affects the allocations that are optimal from among allocations that are stationary and feasible and that satisfy incentive constraints which arise from the absence of commitment and the imperfect ways of keeping track of what others have done in the past journal of economic literature classification numbers e40 c73 d82

money and prices a model of search and bargaining abstract this paper makes commodities divisible and incorporates bargaining into the search theoretic model of money to determine the purchasing power of money or price it is shown that two monetary equilibria always coexist where fiat money is universally accepted the two equilibria differ in price output welfare and the velocity of money sunspot monetary equilibria exist in which money is universally accepted in all states of the economy multiplicity has novel implications on the effectiveness of currency substitution and exchange market intervention journal of economic literature classification numbers c78 e40

the business cycle effects of christmas abstract why do countries and industries with large seasonal fluctuations also have large business cycles it is well known that seasonal fluctuations account for the bulk of total output fluctuations yet it is unknown whether seasonal fluctuations can trigger business cycles using a procedure that allows for identification of seasonal innovations i found that seasonal shocks explain 50 of the business cycle in aggregate output such findings provide a novel and powerful explanation for the observed strong correlation between seasonal fluctuations and business cycles the implication is that in addition to trying to determine whether it is monetary technology or other types of shocks that cause business cycles we should be looking at what causes seasonality

regime switching model of us crude oil and stock market prices 1859 to 2013 this paper examines the relationship between us crude oil and stock market prices using a markov switching vector error correction model and a monthly data set from 1859 to 2013 the sample covers the entire modern era of the petroleum industry which typically begins with the first drilled oil well in titusville pennsylvania in 1858 we estimate a two regime model that divides the sample into high and low volatility regimes based on the variance covariance matrix of the oil and stock prices we find that the high volatility regime more frequently exists prior to the great depression and after the 1973 oil price shock caused by the organization of petroleum exporting countries the low volatility regime occurs more frequently when the oil markets fell largely under the control of the major international oil companies from the end of the great depression to the first oil price shock in 1973 using the national bureau of economic research business cycle dates we also find that the high volatility regime more likely occurs when the economy experiences a recession

a cross cultural comparative study of managerial job attitudes effective managerial performance is influenced by the types of rewards which managers seek in their work environment and by their perceptions of the degree to which their job expectations are being satisfied this research provides empirical evidence on the nature of job related values and outcomes in 4 countries canada france japan and the uk the survey data reveal that the types of job outcomes sought by managers differ significantly from one culture to another the results should be of practical value to companies seeking to develop more effective management motivational devices in the countries studied moreover the approach and methodology may provide a useful model for further cross cultural studies

incentives communication and payment instruments abstract alternative payment instruments are studied in an economy with private information delayed communication and limited commitment attention is restricted to checks and bank drafts which differ in resource cost and communication characteristics checks are less costly but settlement delays create a limited commitment constraint we find that drafts dominate at low wealths and checks at higher wealths applications to 19th century and modern payment systems are discussed

on the private provision of fiat currency this paper considers whether fiat money can be provided by a revenue maximizing monopolist in an environment where money is essential two questions arise concerning the private supply of money is it feasible and is it optimal concerning the feasibility question i show that the revenue maximizing policy is time consistent if the trading history of the issuer is public information and if money demanders respond to the revelation of defection by playing autarky concerning the optimality question the model suggests that any private organization of the market for fiat currency is suboptimal

money is memory abstract this paper examines the sets of feasible allocations in a large class of economic environments in which commitment is impossible following myerson 8 the standard definition of feasibility is adapted to take account of the lack of commitment the environments feature either memory or money memory is defined as knowledge on the part of an agent of the full histories of all agents with whom he has had direct or indirect contact in the past money is defined as an object that does not enter utility or production functions and is available in fixed supply the main proposition is that any allocation that is feasible in an environment with money is also feasible in the same environment with memory depending on the environment the converse may or may not be true hence from a technological point of view money is equivalent to a primitive form of memory journal of economic literature classification numbers e40 c73 d82

perceived career opportunities from globalization globalization capabilities and attitudes towards women in iran and the us as competition for human capital intensifies understanding how employees perceive their fit in a company can assist companies in harnessing the knowledge and skills needed to achieve competitive advantage building on the person organization fit theoretical framework we suggest that individual employee perceptions of globalization related career opportunities represent a fit between individual and company capabilities and values we find both similarities and differences between the relationships of individual and company level globalization capabilities and attitudes towards women an important capability source and globalization related career perceptions within samples of 96 iranian and 210 us employees

a nonparametric investigation of duration dependence in the american business cycle does the termination probability of a business expansion or contraction increase with age this question may be formally addressed by analyzing the nature of duration dependence in aggregate economic activity our null hypothesis is that there is no duration dependence which we test via intentionally nonparametric procedures we also argue that common notion of business cycle periodicity can be usefully interpreted in terms of whole cycle duration dependence we find some evidence for duration dependence in whole cycles and in prewar expansions but little evidence elsewhere

liquidity a new monetarist perspective this essay surveys the new monetarist approach to liquidity work in this literature strives for empirical and policy relevance plus rigorous foundations questions include what is liquidity is money essential in achieving desirable outcomes which objects can or should serve in this capacity when can asset prices differ from fundamentals what are the functions of commitment and collateral in credit markets how does money interact with credit and intermediation what can and should monetary policy do the research summarized emphasizes the micro structure of frictional transactions and studies how institutions like monetary exchange credit arrangements or intermediation facilitate the exchange process

data equivalence in cross cultural international business research assessment and guidelines data equivalence refers to the extent to which the elements of a research design have the same meaning and can be applied in the same way in different cultural contexts failure to establish data equivalence in cross cultural studies may bias empirical results and theoretical inferences although several authors have encouraged researchers to ensure high levels of data equivalence no study has assessed the status of the field in relation to compliance with data equivalence standards accordingly this study examines three aspects of data equivalence construct equivalence measurement equivalence and data collection equivalence within 167 studies that involve cross cultural data published in the journal of international business studies management international review journal of world business strategic management journal and the academy of management journal from 1995 to 2005 the findings indicate that international business researchers report insufficient information in relation to data equivalence issues thus limiting confidence in the findings of many cross cultural studies to enhance future research a guideline for procedures for researchers to follow and report in establishing data equivalence is offered