economic deregulation days of reckoning for microeconomists economic deregulation of american industry is one of the most important experiments in economic policy of our time 1 in 1977 17 percent of u s gnp was produced by fully regulated industries 2 by 1988 following ten years of partial and complete economic deregulation of large parts of the transportation communications energy and financial industries that total had been cut significantly to 6 6 percent of gnp 3 the political forces behind the decision to change the market conditions under which roughly 600 billion of u s output is produced were strong and varied but according to political scientists martha derthick and paul quirk 1985 p 36 deregulation would never have occurred if economists especially microeconomists had not generally supported it through their research 4 in retrospect it is fair to ask were microeconomists able to develop a theoretical and empirical framework to explain regulation and its effects and to form predictions of deregulation s effects were they able to predict the actual effects of deregulation this paper surveys the evidence to address these questions and of

the federal funds rate and the channels of monetary transmission the authors show that the interest rate on federal funds is extremely informative about future movements of real macroeconomic variables then they argue that the reason for this forecasting success is that the funds rate sensitively records shocks to the supply of bank reserves that is the funds rate is a good indicator of monetary policy actions finally using innovations to the funds rate as a measure of changes in policy the authors present evidence consistent with the view that monetary policy works at least in part through credit i e bank loans as well as through money i e bank deposits copyright 1992 by american economic association

developing a stress testing framework based on market risk models the basel 2 accord requires regulatory capital to cover stress tests yet no coherent and objective framework for stress testing portfolios exists we propose a new methodology for stress testing in the context of market risk models that can incorporate both volatility clustering and heavy tails empirical results compare the performance of eight risk models with four possible conditional and unconditional return distributions over different rolling estimation periods when applied to major currency pairs using daily data spanning more than 20 years we find that stress test results should have little impact on current levels of foreign exchange regulatory capital

impairment of monetary autonomy case of trilemma vs duo abstract in a unified framework comprising 33 diverse economies this study investigates the role of flexible exchange rate regime vis a vis capital controls in providing insulation against monetary autonomy impairment we find both of them to be equally effective we also investigate the debate between the mundellian trilemma and the duo our findings show that in the presence of capital openness the flexible exchange rates restrict autonomy impairment only at the shorter horizon of 3 months not at the longer horizon of 12 months

a micro data approach to the identification of credit crunches this article presents a micro data approach to the identification of credit crunches using a survey among german firms which regularly queries the firms assessment of the current willingness of banks to extend credit we estimate the probability of a restrictive loan supply policy by time taking into account the creditworthiness of borrowers creditworthiness is approximated by firm specific factors e g the firms assessment of their current business situation and their business expectations after controlling for the return on the banks risk free investment alternative which is also likely to affect the supply of loans we derive a credit crunch indicator which measures that part of the shift in the loan supply that is neither explained by firm specific factors nor by the opportunity costs of providing risky loans

interest rate pass through and monetary transmission evidence from individual financial institutions retail rates official interest rate changes should influence short rates on money market instruments and retail products such as deposit accounts and mortgages but complete pass through is often taken for granted this paper provides a theoretical and econometric framework for assessing the evidence for this assumption using seventeen years of monthly data for rates on thirteen deposit and mortgage products offered by individual uk financial institutions the methodology allows for asymmetries and non linearities in adjustment and the results show that the speed of adjustment in retail rates depends on whether the perceived gap between retail and base rates is widening or narrowing

regional growth and finance in europe is there a quality effect of bank efficiency abstract in this study we test whether regional growth in 11 european countries depends on financial development and suggest the use of cost and profit efficiency estimates as quality measures of financial institutions contrary to the usual quantitative proxies of financial development the quality of financial institutions is measured in this study as the relative ability of banks to intermediate funds an improvement in bank efficiency spurs five times more regional growth then an identical increase in credit does more credit provided by efficient banks exerts an independent growth effect in addition to direct quantity and quality channel effects

parametric efficiency tests economies of scale and input demand in u s electric power generation duality theory has been applied increasingly in recent years to study the structure of production a major advantage of using duality theory is that systems of input demand equations can be derived by simple differentiation facilitating the use of flexible functional forms also use of duality theory makes it possible to choose a representation of the technology which has desirable properties for estimation such as exogeneity of the regressors however the use of a dual representation of production structure is appropriate only if the corresponding maintained hypothesis concerning economic behavior e g cost minimization or profit maximization is valid the perceived advantages of the dual approach to studying production structure have led to some applications in which the maintained hypothesis concerning economic behavior is unlikely to be appropriate for example neoclassical cost functions have been used to study the characteristics of production in regulated industries despite an extensive theoretical literature indicating that a profit maximizing regulated firm would not minimize costs subject to market prices 2 in this paper we propose a generalized cost function that retains the principal advantages of the neoclassical cost function but does not require that cost minimization subject to market prices be imposed as a maintained hypothesis in our model firms are assumed to base their production decisions on unobservable shadow prices which reflect the effects of regulation on the effective prices of inputs parametric tests for cost minimization are obtained by expressing shadow prices as functions of market prices the generalized cost function is estimated with data for regulated electric utilities the parametric restrictions corresponding to cost minimizing behavior subject to market prices are rejected implying that the use of a neoclassical cost function is not appropriate in this application 3

interpreting the macroeconomic time series facts the effects of monetary policy existing theory and evidence on the effects of monetary policy are reviewed substantial room for disagreement among economists remains new evidence based on multivariate time series studies of several countries is presented while certain patterns in the data consistent with effective monetary policy are strikingly similar across countries others particularly the tendency of interest rate increases to predict high inflation are harder to reconcile with effective monetary policy

market discipline financial crisis and regulatory changes evidence from indonesian banks abstract following the 1997 1998 financial crisis indonesian banks experienced major regulatory changes including the adoption of the blanket guarantee scheme bgs in 1998 a limited guarantee lg in 2005 and changes in capital regulation in 1998 and 2001 we examine the impact of these regulatory changes on market discipline during the period 1995 2009 the price of deposits is used to measure market discipline in a dynamic panel data methodology on a sample of 104 commercial banks we find a weakening of market discipline following the introduction of the bgs the result is consistent with the deposit insurance scheme being credible in the lower capital requirement environment the adoption of lg in a recovering economy also mitigates the role of market discipline however market discipline is more pronounced in listed banks than unlisted banks and in foreign banks than domestic banks these results have important implications for banking regulation and supervision particularly during a crisis period

has the fed fallen behind the curve evidence from var models we evaluate the role of us monetary policy in shaping inflation and economic activity by means of a medium scale bayesian var model where the zlb and the unconventional measures are addressed by using a shadow interest rate the historical decomposition and a conditional forecast scenario show that the fed s stance is in line with gdp and inflation dynamics moreover core inflation will likely lie below its target in 2017

why do firms smooth earnings we explain why a firm may smooth reported earnings greater earnings volatility leads to a bigger informational advantage for informed investors over uninformed investors if sufficiently many current shareholders are uninformed and may need to trade in the future for liquidity reasons an increase in the volatility of reported earnings will magnify these shareholders trading losses they will therefore want the manager to smooth reported earnings as much as possible empirical implications are drawn out that link earnings smoothing to managerial compensation contracts uncertainty about the volatility of earnings and ownership structure

the dynamic effects of aggregate demand and supply disturbances we interpret fluctuations in gnp and unemployment as due to two types of disturbances disturbances that have a permanent effect on output and disturbances that do not we interpret the first as supply disturbances the second as demand disturbances demand disturbances have a hump shaped mirror image effect on output and unemployment the effect of supply disturbances on output increases steadily over time peaking after two years and reaching a plateau after five years

the evolution of u s airline competition studies by academic economists were a significant force in the movement towards deregulation of the domestic airline industry in the early 1970s levine 1965 jordan 1970 keeler 1972 douglas and miller 1974 during the critical 1977 78 period in which deregulation was imposed first de facto by the civil aeronautics board cab and then de jure by congress the chairman and vice chairman of the cab were economists for the 14 years since deregulation economists have continued intensive study of the industry in part because of the unusual availability of reliable firm and transaction level data and in part because of the rare opportunity to observe an industry as it evolves from strict economic regulation to fairly unimpeded competition and strategic behavior the simplest prediction of economists about airline deregulation and one of the few on which nearly all economists agreed was that deregulation would improve consumer welfare in comparison to continued price and entry regulation fourteen years later nearly all economists still agree on this though the degree of enthusiasm for the deregulation outcome varies considerably there was substantial disagreement among economists about the market structure that would result because studies of scale economies in the airline industry had concluded that none existed beyond the scale of the smaller major airlines of the 1970s caves 1962 eads et al 1969 many economists argued that deregulation would result in more than the 11 major airlines that existed at the time of deregulation others predicted that only a few or possibly only one airline would survive at a large scale two noted university of chicago economists sam peltzman and lester telser made a bet in 1979 on whether

financial control in the transition from classical socialism to a market economy the transition from socialism to capitalism poses severe problems of financial management that have yet to be resolved in principle let alone in practice one unfortunate consequence is continual financial turmoil as socialist economies of the soviet union and eastern europe attempt reform inflation either open or repressed first accompanies and then undermines attempts to decentralize decision making to dampen inflation and prevent economic chaos even reform governments may be provoked to reintervene by seizing the financial assets of enterprises reinstituting price controls or commandeering outputs through state orders and similar devices but why should the transition from central planning to a market economy be inflationary understanding the system of financial control in the preexisting regime of classical socialism is the key to understanding what might go wrong in the transition under classical socialism all the means of production industrial and agricultural are state owned output targets input levels wages and prices are all set by a stalinist system of central planning accordingly i shall first identify 1 how domestic fiscal and monetary processes interact with and complement central planning in the classical socialist economy and then discuss 2 why this mechanism for securing domestic financial control and avoiding inflation under classical socialism tends to break down when decentralization begins and central planning is weakened the discussion will then turn to 3 how in a more deliberate transition domestic tax and monetary arrangements might be managed to keep the average price level stable as the market prices of individual goods and services become free to fluctuate after sufficient domestic financial control is secured

the effects of the fed s monetary tightening campaign on nonbank mortgage lending abstract we examine the response of mortgage credit volumes to the fed s planned monetary tightening campaign of continued policy rate increases and slowed future purchases of agency securitized mortgages a shadow policy rate measures unconventional policy tools used at the zero lower bound after the great recession our results from a time varying parameter factor augmented var model show that a policy rate increase identified with sign restrictions shifts mortgage lending from banks to less regulated nonbanks more mortgage funding comes from increased issuance of agency rather than private label securitized mortgages

competition in banking and the lending channel evidence from bank level data in asia and latin america abstract this paper examines how banking competition affects the transmission of monetary policy through the bank lending channel we apply a two step estimation procedure using bank level panel data for commercial banks in 10 asian and 10 latin american countries during the period from 1996 to 2006 in the first step we measure the degree of banking competition by applying the methodology proposed by panzar and rosse 1987 in the second step we estimate a loan growth equation where the explanatory variables include the panzar rosse measure of banking competition the estimation results provide consistent evidence that increased competition in the banking sector weakens the transmission of monetary policy through the bank lending channel this is especially true for banks in latin american countries and banks of small size low liquidity and low capitalization we also discuss the policy implications of the main findings of this paper

dormancy as a strategic response to detrimental public policy organizations in democratic societies often encounter detrimental public policies that are later reversed through rather predictable political cycles the standard organizational responses to detrimental public policies examined in the literature include exiting the market altogether attempting to change the public policy through various political strategies or passively complying with the policy however these responses might not be suitable when a detrimental policy is likely to be reversed in this paper i consider organizational dormancy which entails a temporary reduction in an organization s level of activity as a viable alternative response i propose that some organizations might be able to undergo a period of strategic inactivity in response to the onset of a detrimental public policy and maintain this inactivity until a favorable public policy returns i also propose that such dormancy is rewarded when the favorable policy returns an investigation of a panel of private commercial banks in the indian banking industry from 1981 to 2004 lends support to this proposal

consequences of debt policy in a stochastically growing monetary economy the effects of open market operations and long versus short bond financing on risk in financial markets in a stochastically growing economy are studied an increase in short bonds resulting from exchanging long bonds increases the riskiness of long bonds and raises their real rate of return an open market purchase of either long or short bonds raises the price of long bonds and lowers their risk and real return however debt policy adjustments that affect the real return to long bonds do not affect real investment or growth so that overall the welfare consequences of debt policy are neutral copyright 1998 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

bank fragility money under the mattress and long run growth us evidence from the perfect panic of 1893 abstract this paper examines how the us financial crisis of 1893 affected state output growth between 1900 and 1930 the results indicate that a 1 increase in bank instability reduced output growth by 2 5 a comparison of nebraska which had one of the highest bank failure rates with west virginia which did not experience a single bank failure reveals that disintermediation affected growth through a portfolio change among savers people simply stopped trusting banks time series evidence from newspapers indicates that articles containing the words money hidden significantly increase after banking crises then slowly die out

capital requirements monetary policy and aggregate bank lending theory and empirical evidence capital requirements linked solely to credit risk are shown to increase equilibrium credit rationing and lower aggregate lending the model predicts that the bank s decision to lend will cause an abnormal runup in the borrower s stock price and that this reaction will be greater the more capital constrained the bank i provide empirical support for this prediction the model explains the recent inability of the federal reserve to stimulate bank lending by increasing the money supply i show that increasing the money supply can either raise or lower lending when capital requirements are linked only to credit risk the motivation of this article is first to examine the impact of risk based capital requirements namely those that link mandatory capital to asset ratios for banks to their loans on aggregate bank lending these requirements called the basle capital rules or bis guidelines went into effect in march 1989 for banks in the leading industrialized nations these rules initially required banks to maintain capital equal to 7 25 percent of business and most consumer loans with the requirement increasing to 8 percent by the end of 1992 secondly i wish to understand the link between monetary policy and aggregate bank credit in the presence of risk based capital requirements my curiosity is sparked in part by two recent phenomena one is the experience of the u s economy which displayed sluggish growth during 1989 93 despite a monetary policy that attempted to spur bank lending and economic activity and the other is the striking decline in loans relative to security holdings mostly government bonds in the asset portfolios of u s

productivity and efficiency dynamics in indian banking an input distance function approach incorporating quality of inputs and outputs summary banking technology is typically characterized by multiple inputs and multiple outputs that are associated with various attributes such as different types of deposits loans number of accounts classes of employees and location of branches these quality differentials in inputs and outputs are mostly ignored in empirical studies these omissions make the practical value of productivity studies in organizations like banks questionable because quality is a key component of performance this paper proposes using hedonic aggregator functions as a tool of aggregating inputs and outputs with quality attributes within an input distance function framework and analyzes the impact of banking deregulation on efficiency and total factor productivity tfp change in the indian banking industry using panel data for the period 1996 2005 empirical results indicate that banks have improved their efficiency from 61 in 1996 to 72 in 2005 during the post deregulation period and the gain in efficiency of state owned banks has surpassed that of private banks improvement in capital base as indicated by increased capital adequacy ratio played an important role in ushering efficiency gain the return to scale estimate suggests that state owned banks are operating far above their efficient scale and cost savings can be obtained by reducing their size of operations overall tfp growth was above 3 5 annually both technical progress and technical efficiency change consistently played an important role in shaping tfp growth copyright 2010 john wiley sons ltd

dynamics of pro market institutions and firm performance we analyze how pro market institutions affect firm performance in emerging markets integrating transaction costs and signaling theory we advance three arguments first we separate four dynamic components of pro market institutions intensifying and fading pro market reforms and intensifying and fading pro market reversals second we propose an asymmetric dynamic view whereby not only intensifying reforms but also fading reversals improve firm performance while not only fading reforms but also intensifying reversals reduce performance finally we argue that more efficient firms perform better under each of the dynamics we test these arguments on a sample of 1092 firms from 34 emerging markets during 1998 2011

liquidity models in open economies theory and empirical evidence abstract this paper presents an overview of recent theoretical and empirical research on liquidity models in open economies this is a class of optimizing models where money has effects on real asset prices and economic activity without relying on the ad hoc assumption of price wage stickiness the non neutrality of money derives from a temporary segmentation between goods and asset markets after surveying the theoretical literature on liquidity models we present empirical evidence based on var econometric techniques for the seven major industrial countries such evidence is shown to be consistent with the main implications of the liquidity models

technology shocks and monetary policy assessing the fed s performance abstract the purpose of the present paper is twofold first we characterize the fed s systematic response to technology shocks and its implications for u s output hours and inflation second we evaluate the extent to which those responses can be accounted for by a simple monetary policy rule including the optimal one in the context of a standard business cycle model with sticky prices our main results can be described as follows first we detect significant differences across periods in the response of the economy as well as the fed s to a technology shock second the fed s response to a technology shock in the volcker greenspan period is consistent with an optimal monetary policy rule third in the pre volcker period the fed s policy tended to overstabilize output at the cost of generating excessive inflation volatility our evidence reinforces recent results in the literature suggesting an improvement in the fed s performance

the impact of regulatory reforms on cost structure ownership and competition in indian banking this paper evaluates the impact of financial sector reforms on the cost structure characteristics and on the ownership cost efficiency relationship in indian banking it also examines the impact of reforms on the dynamics of competition in the lending market we find evidence that deregulation improves banks performance and fosters competition in the lending market results suggest technological progress once indian commercial banks have adjusted to the new regulatory environment this however does not translate in efficiency gains there is also evidence of an ownership effect on the level and pattern of efficiency change finally competition keeps building pace even in the re regulation period and technological improvements are not hampered by the tightening of prudential norms

alternative government financing and stochastic endogenous growth abstract this paper addresses a stochastic endogenous model in which the stock of securities both money and bonds are required to finance the government budget we study how the expected rate of real growth the expected inflation rate and economic welfare are influenced by changes in the first and second moments of public spending the analyses will enable us to assess the merits and demerits of mixed financing case of money and bonds relative to financing one of taxes on wealth examined in grinols and turnovsky j econom dyn control 17 1993 1 and turnovsky int econom rev 34 1993 953 in addition we construct a model where government relies on a larger ratio of bonds to money to raise the necessary revenue and show how the consequences of mixed financing are affected by the policy decision of government

implications of bank ownership for the credit channel of monetary policy transmission evidence from india using bank level data from india we examine the impact of ownership on the reaction of banks to monetary policy and also test whether the reaction of different types of banks to monetary policy changes is different in easy and tight policy regimes our results suggest that there are considerable differences in the reactions of different types of banks to monetary policy initiatives of the central bank and that the bank lending channel of monetary policy is likely to be much more effective in a tight money period than in an easy money period we also find differences in impact of monetary policy changes on less risky short term and more risky medium term lending we discuss the policy implications of the findings

indian bank efficiency and productivity changes with undesirable outputs a disaggregated approach the objective of this study is to examine technical efficiency and productivity growth in the indian banking sector over the period from 2004 to 2011 we apply an innovative methodological approach introduced by chen et al 2011 and barros et al 2012 who use a weighted russell directional distance model to measure technical inefficiency we further modify and extend that model to measure tfp change with npls we find that the inefficiency levels are significantly different among the three ownership structure of banks in india foreign banks have strong market position in india and they pull the production frontier in a more efficient direction spbs and domestic private banks show considerably higher inefficiency we conclude that the restructuring policy applied in the late 1990s and early 2000s by the indian government has not had a long lasting effect

economic consequences of deregulation evidence from the removal of voting cap in indian banks abstract we examine the effect of the 2005 banking regulation amendment bill and the 2011 banking laws amendment bill proposals for removal of the 10 percent voting rights cap in indian banks the 2011 banking laws bill was first introduced in 2005 but lapsed with the dissolution of the 14th lok sabha the bill was passed in december 2012 and raised the voting cap in private sector banks from 10 to 26 percent we present evidence that the removal of the voting cap enhances the value of votes of bank stocks by reducing the wedge between cash flow and control rights thus increasing monitoring and the probability of takeover post deregulation analysis reveals that the passage of the bill was followed by increasing blockholders number and percentage of shares held in larger and government banks furthermore a stronger negative relationship between banks profitability and size as well as share of non performing loans is observed this study makes an important contribution to the growing literature on the valuation impact and efficiency gains of liberalization of ownership restrictions in emerging markets as well as the rich literature on corporate governance and control relating to the value of voting privilege in companies with disparate voting rights

banks responses to deregulation profits technology and efficiency the deregulation of interest rates in the early 1980s raised bank funding costs and lowered profits in response banks raised fees for deposit services reduced branch operating costs and shifted to higher earning assets rates of return did not regain their prederegulation levels until the early 1990s our goal is to decompose the change in bank profits following deregulation into i intemal bank initiated adjustments to the new regulatory structure and ii external contemporaneous changes in banks business environment this decomposition will depend in part on the assumed competitive structure of the banking industry with perfect competition output and input prices are part of the external environment and banks responses are limited to changes in output and input quantities an alternative approach assumes imperfect competition where banks have some control over output prices deposit fees minimum balance requirements and interest rates on certain loans and output quantities and input prices comprise the external environment the altemative model is supported by the data using this model large banks but not smaller banks are found to have relied primarily on changing output prices and input use to mitigate and reverse the negative effects of deregulation on profits the adjustment to deregulation was essentially complete after four years following this additional changes in bank profitability during the late 1980s were primarily due to changes in banks business environment

financial liberalization and bank efficiency a comparative analysis of india and pakistan this paper provides a comparative analysis of the evolution of the technical efficiency of commercial banks in india and pakistan during 1988 1998 a period characterized by far reaching changes in the banking industry brought about by financial liberalization data envelopment analysis is applied to two alternative input output specifications to measure technical efficiency and to decompose technical efficiency into its two components pure technical efficiency and scale efficiency the consistency of the estimated efficiency scores are checked by examining their relationship with three traditional non frontier measures of bank performance in addition the relationship between bank size and technical efficiency is examined it is found that the overall technical efficiency of the banking industry of both countries improved gradually over the years especially after 1995 unlike public sector banks in india public sector banks in pakistan witnessed improvement in scale efficiency only it is also found that banks are relatively more efficient in generating earning assets than in generating income this is attributed to the presence of high non performing loans in addition it is found that the gap between the pure technical efficiency of different size groups has declined over the years

forecasting the fragility of the banking and insurance sectors linkages between banks and insurance companies are important when forecasting the fragility of the banking and insurance sectors we propose a novel empirical framework that allows us to estimate unobserved linkages in panel data sets that contain observed regressors we find that taking unobserved common factors into account reduces the root mean square forecasts error of firm specific forecasts by up to 9 of system forecasts by up to 14 and by up to 39 for systemic forecasts of more distressed firms relative to a model based on observed variables only estimates of the factor loadings suggest that the correlation of financial institutions has been relatively stable over the forecast period

bank regulation and the credit crunch abstract this study investigates the direct link between regulatory enforcement actions and the shrinkage of bank loans to sectors likely to be bank dependent we partition the shrinkage due to loan supply into the component due to explicit regulatory enforcement actions and that due to a voluntary response by bank management to low capital to asset ratios we find that banks with formal actions shrink at a significantly faster rate than those without even after controlling for differences in capital to asset ratios furthermore much of the reduced lending has been in categories containing primarily loans to bank dependent borrowers

competition transmission and bank pricing policies evidence from belgian loan and deposit markets abstract this paper addresses the pass through from market interest rates to retail bank interest rates the paper advocates a heterogeneous approach and applies it to the belgian banking market a substantial proportion of the heterogeneity in bank pricing policies can be explained by the bank lending channel and the relative market power hypothesis the results also suggest that the long term pass through is typically less than one for one rejecting the completeness hypothesis while there is no convincing evidence for asymmetry in retail rates large deviations from equilibrium mark ups are faster reduced than small deviations overall conditions for corporate loans are more competitive compared to consumer loans demand and savings deposits have by far the most rigid prices

the impact of liberalization on the productive efficiency of indian commercial banks abstract we examine the productive efficiency of 70 indian commercial banks during the early stages 1986 1991 of the ongoing period of liberalization we use data envelopment analysis to calculate radial technical efficiency scores we then use stochastic frontier analysis to attribute variation in the calculated efficiency scores to three sources a temporal component an ownership component and a random noise component we find publicly owned indian banks to have been the most efficient followed by foreign owned banks and privately owned indian banks we also find a temporal improvement in the performance of foreign owned banks virtually no trend in the performance of privately owned indian banks and a temporal decline in the performance of publicly owned indian banks we attempt to explain these patterns in terms of the government s evolving regulatory policies

efficiency dynamics in indian banking a conditional directional distance approach abstract the paper contributes to the contemporary research on bank efficiency in india we analyze the efficiency dynamics of the indian banking industry from 2004 to 2012 based on the recent methodological developments of the conditional and unconditional directional distances introduced by daraio and simar 2014 we apply a conditional directional distance estimator in order to analyze the dynamic effects of industry s performance levels the results indicate that foreign banks perform better compared to national and domestic private banks there is also evidence of technological change at the period before the global financial crisis however during and after the global financial crisis these gains diminished the evidence suggests that national banks fail to sustain their high performance levels gained after the industry s restructuring period finally the findings support the view that ownership structure affects banks technical efficiency levels

is the efficient market hypothesis day of the week dependent evidence from the banking sector in this article we propose a new hypothesis that the efficient market hypothesis is day of the week dependent we apply the test to firms belonging to the banking sector and listed on the nyse we find significant evidence that the efficient market hypothesis is day of the week dependent overall for only 62 of firms the unit root null hypothesis is rejected on all the five trading days we also discover that when investors do not account for unit root properties in devising trading strategies they obtain spurious profits

financial structure and reforms in central and eastern europe in the 1980s abstract the paper analyzes the evolution of the financial structure of the countries of central and eastern europe during the 1980s in these countries the financial system is assigned a limited and mostly passive function this needs to be seen in the context of the allocative system of centrally planned economies where the transfer of financial resources between sectors is largely performed directly by the state through the price system taxes and subsidies the analysis focuses specifically on hungary poland and czechoslovakia the development of their financial structure is assessed through a number of quantitative indicators we find that the partial economic and financial reforms introduced in hungary and poland before 1989 did not substantially modify the role and performance of the financial system whose size in relation to the real economy remained modest at the same time however the reforms exacerbated some of the distortions of the planned system and generated larger macroeconomic imbalances the effects of which tend to cloud the interpretation of financial indicators at the end of 1980 the banking systems of hungary and poland although formally decentralized continued to allocate credit mostly according to automatic criteria and had virtually no experience in assessing and monitoring borrowers and investment projects in this respect they differed little from that of czechoslovakia which remained based on the classic model of a single state bank

impact of financial reforms on efficiency of state owned private and foreign banks in pakistan this article uses a unique bank level data from 1991 to 2000 and evaluates how financial reforms affect banking efficiency of domestic and foreign banks in pakistan the results suggest that banking efficiency falls during initial reform period when banks adjust to enhanced competition but increases in more advanced stages of reform while in general foreign and private banks show superior efficiency and factor productivity than do state owned banks the relative performance of foreign banks worsens after the consolidation stage of the financial reforms is over we show the importance of link between bank size asset quality and bank branches with efficiency indexes and also note that every 10 increase in share of nonperforming to total loans decreases banking efficiency by 6 to 10

asymmetric effects of the business cycle on bank credit risk abstract prior empirical research on the relation between credit risk and the business cycle has failed to properly investigate the presence of asymmetric effects to fill this gap we examine this relation both at the aggregate and the bank level exploiting a unique dataset on italian banks borrowers default rates we employ threshold regression models that allow to endogenously establish different regimes identified by the thresholds over below which credit risk is more less cyclical we find that not only are the effects of the business cycle on credit risk more pronounced during downturns but cyclicality is also higher for those banks with riskier portfolios

economies of scale technical change and persistent and time varying cost efficiency in indian banking do ownership regulation and heterogeneity matter abstract banks with different ownership types adjust differently to changes in regulatory environments although this topic has been widely studied all the previous studies fail to control for bank heterogeneity bank specific effects in estimating cost structure and efficiency we propose a model where we control for bank heterogeneity and introduce persistent and time varying inefficiency additionally we incorporate determinants of both persistent and time varying inefficiency as well as production risks furthermore our model allows estimation of different technologies for different ownership types jointly we use this model to analyze the effect of regulation in indian banking we find that private banks have not exhausted their economies of scale foreign banks are operating under diseconomies of scale especially after the reforms and scale economies of state owned banks are unaffected by regulation banks of all ownership types have enjoyed technical progress however foreign banks have benefited the most followed by state owned banks only state banks were able to improve their cost efficiency while private banks and especially foreign banks were lagging behind their cost frontiers

taxation risk taking and growth a continuous time stochastic general equilibrium analysis with labor leisure choice abstract this paper investigates the equilibrium relationship between taxation portfolio choice risk taking and capital accumulation specifically it examines how taxes affect risk taking and capital accumulation we extend the existing literature by relaxing two crucial assumptions in modelling risk taking behavior i that the investment opportunity set is fixed and ii that there is no distinction between attitudes towards risk and behavior towards intertemporal substitution we extend the investment opportunity set of individuals through optimally determined human capital and distinguish intertemporal substitution from attitudes towards risk via a recursive utility function in the presence of these extensions the paper successfully derives a closed form solution to the stochastic growth model with stochastic wage income

the effect of bank ownership and deposit insurance on monetary policy transmission abstract in this paper we develop a theoretical model with a representative bank whose ownership is shared between state and private sector the bank faces a risk of failure and provides private and public explicit deposit insurance banks owned to a larger extent by the government are more able to counteract a restrictive monetary policy because of their capacity to raise additional volume of deposits therefore the greater the state s share in the bank ownership the less the impact of a monetary tightening on the level of loan supply

are the effects of monetary policy asymmetric huntley schaller by building on the hamilton 1989 markov switching model we examine questions like does monetary policy have the same effect in expansions and recessions given that the economy is currently in a recession does a fall in interest rates increase the probability of an expansion does monetary policy have an incremental effect on the growth rate within a given state or does it only affect the economy if it is sufficiently strong to induce a state change e g from recession to expansion as suggested by models with sticky prices or finance constraints interest rate changes have larger effects during recessions jel e52 e32 much of the recent work in macroeconomics has proceeded under the assumption that variables follow linear stochastic processes with constant coefficients as a result some of the richness of the burns mitchell analysis such as its focus on asymmetries between recessions and expansions may well have been lost blanchard and fischer 1989 7 i introduction for decades macroeconomists have debated whether monetary policy has the same effect on real output in expansions and recessions as far back as the 1930s keynes and pigou debated whether monetary policy would have less effect on output during a severe economic downturn in the 1960s there were active debates on a very different proposition namely whether the rightward portion of the aggregate supply curve was vertical so that monetary policy would have less effect on real output during expansions in this article we provide a new type of evidence on whether monetary policy has different effects depending on whether the economy is in an expansion or recession empirical evidence on this issue is particularly relevant in light of new theoretical work in macroeconomics that predicts asymmetric effects of demand shocks conditional on the state of the economy two examples of this work are s s type models of price adjustment and models in which there are agency costs of financial intermediation 1 the intuition for the latter class of models is simple 2 when there is information asymmetry in financial markets agents may behave as if they were constrained for a variety of reasons these finance constraints are more likely to bind during recessions when the net worth of agents is low an increase in interest rates will then have two effects on investment the standard effect of increasing the cost of capital and therefore reducing investment demand and an additional effect of reducing liquidity e g by increasing debt service obligations and thus reducing investment demand for constrained agents as a result monetary policy actions that change interest rates will have greater effects during a recession 3 the s s type price adjustment models of ball and mankiw 1994 caballero and engel 1992 and tsiddon 1993 lead to a convex aggregate supply curve and therefore also imply that monetary policy will have stronger effects during recessions one of the more frequently cited empirical papers on the potentially asymmetric effects of monetary policy is cover 1992 which finds evidence that positive monetary shocks have different effects from negative monetary shocks we are looking at a different type of asymmetry namely between booms and recessions we study asymmetries using an extension of the markov switching model developed by hamilton 1989 estimated over the period 1955 93 in hamilton s econometric specification the growth rate of output depends on a state variable that corresponds to an expansion or recession this approach has several advantages first unlike linear projections it allows for nonlinearities and asymmetries second in estimating the recession coefficients it gives greater relative weight to observations that most clearly correspond to recessions and similarly for the expansion coefficients

allocative distortions technical progress and input demand in u s airlines 1970 1984 this paper generalizes a globally concave and flexible cost function to accommodate allocative distortions these distortions are introduced through shadow prices and are specified as functions of regressors that make distortion factors firm input and time specific the estimated model based on a panel of nineteen u s airlines observed during 1970 84 rejects the hypothesis of no allocative distortions increase in costs due to allocative distortions are calculated for each airline over the entire period the rate of technical progress and economies of scale are also estimated based on models with and without allocative distortions copyright 1992 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

eastern europe s experience with banking reform is there a role for banks in the transition are there lessons to be learned about how eastern european countries have dealt with problems in their banking systems what role have these countries assigned to banks during the transition how have they used banks in dealing with the enterprise problem the author addresses these questions by analyzing experience in bulgaria hungary poland romania and the former czech and slovak federal republic most of these countries have made substantial progress in restructuring their banking systems but few have used their banking systems to improve the allocation of credit and hence stimulate the supply response the author finds the following the problem is not whether banks hold nonperforming loans but how banks can avoid accumulating more nonperforming loans the underlying problem is how to close loss making and nonviable enterprises the countries that have encouraged the establishment of new private banks that have introduced regulation and supervision and that have tried to make banks more competitive have been more successful at improving the allocation of credit and achieving more control over loss making enterprises banks must focus on assessing risk and for this capital private ownership and adequate regulation are crucial how quickly banks achieve independence in credit decisions depends on how fast new governance structures can be introduced in this the five countries have been less successful the objectives of bank recapitulation should be to prevent banks from accumulating more nonperforming loans that is dealing with the enterprise problem and to give them the governance structure that would prevent them from incurring new nonperforming loans this requires introducing a system of risk and reward by making banks comply with capital adequacy requirements by privatizing a critical number of banks and by introducing strong regulation and supervision government should see that banks provide efficient payment systems the basis for trust in banking systems introducing adequate regulation and supervision has been difficult as it requires knowing what the banks role should be evidence strongly supports the need to recapitalize and privatize a critical number of banks authorities cannot rely on banks to exert control on enterprises early in the transition in the early stages control over state owned enterprises should be exercised by a semipublic institution

banking efficiency in the nordic countries abstract evidence of the relative competitiveness of the banking industries in three nordic countries is provided by applying data envelopment analysis of productivity on the national and the pooled data sets the analysis produces a detailed account of how well banks from different countries and different sizes may be prepared to meet the more intense competition of a common european banking market

how resilient is the german banking system to macroeconomic shocks abstract macroeconomic stress testing studies often rely on rather short sample periods due to the limited availability of banking data they may fail to appropriately account for the cyclicality in the interaction between the banking system and macroeconomic developments in this paper we use a newly constructed data set on german banks income and loss statements over the past 39 years to model the interaction between the banking sector and the macroeconomy our var analysis indicates that the level of stress in the banking sector is strongly affected by monetary policy shocks the results rationalize the active behavior of central banks observed during periods of financial market crises

the effects of deregulation on the performance of financial institutions the case of spanish savings banks this paper examines the impact of regulatory reform on the performance of spanish savings banks the focus is whether increased competition brought on by deregulation affected performance of banks over time output technical efficiency which is defined in terms of the production possibility frontier is also examined empirical results show declining levels of output technical efficiency along with a significantly high rate of technical progress in spite of declining technical efficiency during this period evidence of an increasing trend in productivity growth is found

deregulation ownership and productivity growth in the banking industry evidence from india this paper analyzes the relationship between deregulation and total factor productivity tfp growth in the indian banking industry using a generalized shadow cost function approach tfp growth is decomposed into a technological change a scale and a miscellaneous component a disaggregated panel data analysis using the population of public and private banks over 1985 96 that covers both pre and post deregulation periods indicates that a significant decline in regulatory distortions and the anticipated increase in tfp growth have not yet materialized following deregulation while private sector banks have improved their performance mainly due to the freedom to expand output public sector banks have not responded well to the deregulation measures

endogenous growth cycles current explanations why a growing economy necessarily goes through periods of high and low growth predict countercyclical r d investment as this is very controversial from an empirical perspective a stochastic poisson model of endogenous growth cycles is presented where the determinants of the cyclical behaviour of r d investment are analytically studied providing an explicit expression for the expected length of a cycle shows that high frequency fluctuations can indeed be understood by this approach it is also shown how small technological improvements translate into large aggregate fluctuations

us monetary policy and the euro area abstract this study documents empirically that contractionary us monetary policy may generate short term expansionary spillover effects in individual euro area ea member countries economic activity increases mainly via the trade channel also domestic credit and stock markets expand highlighting the importance of the financial channel however the international repercussions are transitory and distributed unevenly within the ea the effect diminishes as ea interest rates increase with a few quarters delay while the effects are heterogenous and rather large before 1999 responses become more homogeneous and smaller in size after the implementation of the euro still country specific asymmetries remain

deregulation and productivity decline the case of spanish savings banks abstract during the 1980s many regulatory constraints limiting competition in spanish banking were relaxed or removed although deregulation came later to savings banks than to the rest of the banking sector two consequences of partial deregulation of savings banks have been a rapid growth in branching activity much of it geographically dispersed and a burst of merger activity in this paper we investigate productive efficiency and total factor productivity change in spanish savings banks over the 1986 1991 post deregulation period neither branching nor mergers provide an adequate explanation for the magnitude or the nature of the productivity decline we observe over the period

trends in efficiency in response to regulatory reforms the case of indian and pakistani commercial banks this paper attempts to estimate trends in the efficiency levels of indian and pakistani commercial banks between 1985 and 2003 a time period which encompasses two phases of significant change to the regulation of the financial sector in both countries our efficiency estimates show that during the initial years of the post reform period a reduction in efficiency is observed for banks in both countries however efficiency levels were found to have increased subsequently suggesting a period of initial adjustment throughout much of the 1990s followed by a subsequent correction in the latter part of the sample period

some evidence on the empirical significance of credit rationing this paper examines the credit rationing debate using detailed contract information on over one million commercial bank loans from 1977 to 1988 while commercial loan rates are sticky consistent with rationing this stickiness varies with loan contract terms in ways that are not predicted by equilibrium credit rationing theory in addition the proportion of new loans issued under commitment does not increase significantly when credit markets are tight despite the fact that borrowers without commitments can be rationed whereas commitment borrowers are contractually insulated from rationing overall the data suggest that equilibrium rationing is not a significant macroeconomic phenomenon

production technologies in stochastic continuous time models abstract properties of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models can be revealed by either using numerical solutions or qualitative analysis very precise and intuition building results are obtained by working with models which provide closed form solutions closed form solutions are known for a large class of models some of which however have some undesirable features such as potentially negative output this paper offers closed form solutions for models which are just as tractable but do not suffer from these shortcomings