robust tests for unit roots in the foreign exchange market abstract empirical studies that have tested for unit roots in foreign exchange rate data have assumed independent and identically distributed errors in order to apply dickey fuller test procedures this assumption ignores the temporal dependence of the error sequence present in many simple efficient market tests as discussed in hansen and hodrick 1980 as well as krasker 1980 in this paper we apply unit root test statistics that allow for heterogeneously distributed and mildly dependent error processes and thus provide superior tests of the unit root hypothesis in the case of foreign exchange rates

pitfalls in the use of systemic risk measures we examine pitfalls in the use of return based measures of systemic risk contributions srcs for both linear and nonlinear return frameworks assuming normal and heavy tailed distributions we identify nonexotic cases in which a change in a bank s systematic risk idiosyncratic risk size or contagiousness increases the risk of the system but lowers the measured src of the bank assessments based on estimated srcs could thus produce false interpretations and incentives we also identify potentially adverse side effects a change in a bank s risk structure can make the measured src of its competitors increase more strongly than its own

magnitude and persistence of extreme risk spillovers in the global energy market a high dimensional left tail interdependence perspective abstract this paper studies the magnitude and persistence of extreme risk spillovers among stock returns of 124 energy companies worldwide between january 2006 and june 2019 as well as the corresponding firm specific determinants of firms extreme risk spillovers the high dimensional nonparametric method the coefficient of tail interdependence cti enables us to make better use of available information and to evaluate risk spillovers more precisely moreover we use spatial panel models that consider spatial heterogeneity among firms to explore the determinants of the risk spillovers the empirical findings from a study of energy firms risk spillover effects verify the necessity of persistence measurement also the most systemically risky energy companies are not necessarily the largest and some small firms can also generate large risk spillovers when they are in distress which indicates that determinants other than firm size could also affect the spillover effect such as business complexity and geographic location our regression results suggest that the extreme risk spillover of the energy companies exhibits significant heterogeneity in terms of business and region which deserves more attention for energy risk management the estimates can be used for making portfolio decisions and designing regulatory policies

measuring asset market linkages nonlinear dependence and tail risk abstracttraditional measures of dependence in time series are based on correlations or periodograms these are adequate in many circumstances but in others especially when trying to assess market

when credit bites back using data on 14 advanced countries between 1870 and 2008 we document two key facts of the modern business cycle relative to typical recessions financial crisis recessions are costlier and more credit intensive expansions tend to be followed by deeper recessions in financial crises or otherwise and slower recoveries we use local projection methods to condition on a broad set of macro economic controls to study how past credit accumulation impacts key macro economic variables such as output investment lending interest rates and inflation the facts that we uncover lend support to the idea that financial factors play an important role in the modern business cycle

bank geographic diversification and systemic risk exploiting staggered interstate banking deregulation as exogenous shocks to bank geographic expansion we examine the causal effect of geographic diversification on systemic risk using the gravity deregulation approach we find that bank geographic diversification leads to higher systemic risk measured by the change in conditional value at risk delta covar and financial integration logistic r 2 furthermore we document that geographic diversification affects systemic risk via its impact on asset similarity the impact of geographic diversification on systemic risk is stronger in bhcs located in states comoving less with the u s aggregate economy

srisk a conditional capital shortfall measure of systemic risk we introduce srisk to measure the systemic risk contribution of a financial firm srisk measures the capital shortfall of a firm conditional on a severe market decline and is a function of its size leverage and risk we use the measure to study top financial institutions in the recent financial crisis srisk delivers useful rankings of systemic institutions at various stages of the crisis and identifies fannie mae freddie mac morgan stanley bear stearns and lehman brothers as top contributors as early as 2005 q1 moreover aggregate srisk provides early warning signals of distress in indicators of real activity received june 7 2011 accepted april 18 2016 by editor geert bekaert

conditional euro area sovereign default risk we propose an empirical framework to assess the likelihood of joint and conditional sovereign default from observed cds prices our model is based on a dynamic skewed t distribution that captures all salient features of the data including skewed and heavy tailed changes in the price of cds protection against sovereign default as well as dynamic volatilities and correlations that ensure that uncertainty and risk dependence can increase in times of stress we apply the framework to euro area sovereign cds spreads during the euro area debt crisis our results reveal significant time variation in distress dependence and spill over effects for sovereign default risk we investigate market perceptions of joint and conditional sovereign risk around announcements of eurosystem asset purchases programs and document a strong impact on joint risk

staggered price setting translog preferences and endogenous persistence abstract this paper generates persistent real effects of a monetary disturbance in the context of staggered price setters the model combines two related and reinforcing features a translog demand structure and a particular input output production structure these features offer a rationale why a firm when computing its own optimal contract price is influenced by the prices set in other overlapping contracts practically the two features interact in a positive manner and provide a way to generate significant endogenous persistence

low inflation pass through and the pricing power of firms abstract recently there has been a significant decline in the degree to which firms pass through changes in costs to prices a decline that is frequently characterized as a reduction in the pricing power of firms the decline appears to be associated with the decline in inflation in many countries the decline has important implications for monetary policy because it affects both forecasts of inflation and the effects of changes in monetary policy on inflation some have argued that the decline in pricing power helped to keep inflation low in the face of apparently strong demand pressures in the united states in the late 1990s this paper puts forth the view that the decline in pass through or pricing power is due to the low inflation environment that has recently been achieved in many countries first a microeconomic model of price setting is used to show that lower pass through is caused by lower perceived persistence of cost changes evidence is then presented showing that inflation is positively correlated with persistence of inflation suggesting that the low inflation itself has caused the low pass through an economy wide model consistent with the micromodel is then presented to illustrate how such changes in pricing power affect output and inflation dynamics in favorable ways but can disappear quickly if monetary policy and expectations change

new directions for stochastic open economy models the paper develops a simple stochastic new open economy macroeconomic model based on sticky nominal wages explicit solution of the wage setting problem under uncertainty allows one to analyze the effects of the monetary regime on welfare expected output and the expected terms of trade despite the potential interplay between imperfections due to sticky wages and monopoly the optimal monetary policy rule has a closed form solution to motivate our model we show that observed correlations between terms of trade and exchange rates are more consistent with our traditional assumptions about nominal rigidities than with a popular alternative based on local currency pricing 2000 elsevier science b v all rights reserved

real exchange rate monetary policy and the u s economy evidence from a favar model this paper examines the effects of exchange rate depreciation to the u s economy in a factor augmented vector autoregression model using monthly data of 148 variables for the post bretton woods period of 1973 2017 exchange rate shock is identified to reflect exogenous disturbances to the foreign exchange market and movements in exchange rate that are not accounted for by changes in the u s monetary policy we find that depreciation is expansionary and inflationary to the broad u s economy the current account improves over time conforming to the j curve theory and monetary policy is leaning against the wind jel e3 e5 f31 f32 f41

hidden effects of bank recapitalizations abstract given the importance of capital regulation in the banking industry how and why a bank s behavior reacts to a recapitalization has profound consequences to this end we investigate the effects of 306 seasoned equity offerings seos conducted by listed european banks between 2002 and 2014 we use propensity score matching and find that seos lead to asset expansion as opposed to any deleveraging further we find a decrease in lending in the short term followed by a subsequent increase a reduction in profitability and an increase in systemic risk regulators might not have fully considered this last negative externality when they imposed the tougher basel iii capital requirements the effects of seos strongly depend on the reasons behind the recapitalizations

empirical evidence on the currency carry trade 1900 2012 abstract most of the currency literature investigates the risk and return characteristics of the currency carry trade after the collapse of the bretton woods system in order to gauge the long term currency carry premium we extend the sample to 20 currencies over the period 1900 to 2012 we find modest sharpe ratios in the range of 0 2 0 4 for carry trading over this period this is markedly lower than the sharpe ratios above 0 6 reported for recent sample periods we document that carry trading occasionally incurs substantial losses which fits well with risk based explanations for deviations from uncovered interest parity we find that large carry trading losses do not necessarily coincide with large losses in global equity markets our results help to better understand the source and nature of excess returns on the carry trade

exchange rate pass through openness and the sacrifice ratio abstract considerable recent work has reached mixed conclusions about whether and how globalization affects the inflation output trade off and suggests that the ultimate effect of openness on the output inflation relationship is influenced by a variety of factors in this paper we consider the impact of exchange rate pass through and examine how pass through conditions the effect of openness on the sacrifice ratio we develop a simple theoretical model showing how the extent of both pass through and openness can interact to influence the output inflation relationship next we empirically explore the nature of these two variables and their interaction results indicate that greater pass through increases the sacrifice ratio that there is statistically significant interaction between pass through and openness and once the extent of pass through is taken into account alongside other factors that affect the sacrifice ratio such as central bank independence openness fails to exert an empirically robust effect on the sacrifice ratio

ppp strikes back aggregation and the real exchange rate we show the importance of a dynamic aggregation bias in accounting for the ppp puzzle we prove that the aggregate real exchange rate is persistent because its components have heterogeneous dynamics established time series and panel methods fail to control for this using eurostat data we find that when heterogeneity is taken into account the estimated persistence of real exchange rates falls dramatically its half life for instance may fall to as low as eleven months significantly below the consensus view of three to five years

measuring sovereign risk spillovers and assessing the role of transmission channels a spatial econometrics approach abstract we contribute to the literature on international risk spillovers by developing a unified framework based on spatial econometrics that enables us to address the following questions i what are the effective transmission channels real linkages and informational channels of international risk spillovers across countries and or regions ii what are the most dominant ones and iii which countries are most at risk for their environment and which are suffering the most from international exposure our analysis based on 41 advanced and emerging economies from 2008q1 to 2012q4 shows that among the considered channels for explaining international spillovers of sovereign bond spreads the informational channel is of utmost importance our results challenge previous findings from the literature in which the empirical strategy did not accommodate altogether important features of country spillovers such as the co existence of multiple transmission channels in the presence of contemporaneous and time lagged interactions ultimately our stress testing analysis reveals important insights on countries prone either to international spillovers international exposure or both at the regional and the worldwide level

international trade without ces estimating translog gravity this paper derives a micro founded gravity equation in general equilibrium based on a translog demand system that allows for endogenous markups and substitution patterns across goods in contrast to standard ces based gravity equations trade is more sensitive to trade costs if the exporting country only provides a small share of the destination country s imports as a result trade costs have a heterogeneous impact across country pairs with some trade flows predicted to be zero i test the translog gravity equation and find strong empirical support in its favor

does the exchange rate follow a random walk a monte carlo study of four tests for a random walk abstract several authors have urged that real and nominal exchange rates follow a random walk conditions under which the exchange rate follows a random walk are reviewed in this paper many of these do not appear to hold therefore the empirical evidence presents a puzzle some evidence suggets the exchange rate follows a random walk while other evidence suggests the opposite should be true this paper attempts to reconcile the evidence it is argued that the tests for a random walk have low power monte carlo evidence on four tests for a random walk is presented that suppors this claim

small bank comparative advantages in alleviating financial constraints and providing liquidity insurance over time we use novel monthly survey data from 1993 to 2012 on small business managerial perceptions of financial constraints and other conditions matched with information on banks in their local markets the data suggest that small banks have comparative advantages in alleviating these constraints these advantages tend to be greater during adverse economic conditions and do not appear to decrease or increase secularly small banks also appear to have comparative advantages in providing liquidity insurance to small business customers of large banks experiencing liquidity shocks during financial crises our findings suggest a source of social costs from ongoing consolidation of the banking industry received december 28 2015 editorial decision january 13 2017 by editor philip strahan

limited investment capital and credit spreads using proprietary credit default swap cds data i investigate how capital shocks at protection sellers impact pricing in the cds market seller capital shocks measured as cds portfolio margin payments account for 12 of the time series variation in weekly spread changes a significant amount given that standard credit factors account for 18 during my sample in addition seller shocks possess information for spreads that is independent of institution wide measures of constraints these findings imply a high degree of market segmentation and suggest that frictions within specialized financial institutions prevent capital from flowing into the market at shorter horizons

common stochastic trends in a system of exchange rates univariate tests reveal strong evidence for the presence of a unit root in the univariate time series representation for seven daily spot and forward exchange rate series furthermore all seven spot and forward rates appear to be cointegrated that is the forward premiums are stationary and one common unit root or stochastic trend is detectable in the multivariate time series models for the seven spot and forward rates respectively this is consistent with the hypothesis that the seven exchange rates possess one longrun relationship and that the disequilibrium error around that relationship partly accounts for subsequent movements in the exchange rates a general consensus has emerged in recent years that many macroeconomic time series such as gnp consumption expenditures disposable income etc can be characterized by a stochastic trend model in particular nelson and plosser 22 described this property as one of being difference stationary so that the first difference of a time series is stationary an alternative trend stationary model where a stationary component is added to a deterministic trend term has generally been found to be less appropriate 1 similarly it has long been recognized that many financial time series such as foreign exchange rates are nonstationary e g in meese and singleton 21 the issue of nonstationary is not merely a statistical curiosity but has several important implications for the modeling of exchange rates for instance many models of exchange rate determination under rational expectations require stationarity assumptions when solving out the expected future values of the fundamentals further there has been some controversy over the appropriate transformations to use when conducting tests of whether the forward rate is an unbiased and efficient predictor of the future spot exchange rate 2 some authors e g frenkel 11 12 have conducted tests in levels while geweke and feige 14

testing macroprudential stress tests the risk of regulatory risk weights we compare the capital shortfall measured by regulatory stress tests to that o fa benchmark methodology the v lab stress test that employs only publicly available market data we find that when capital shortfalls are measured relative to risk weighted assets the ranking of financial institutions is not well correlated to the ranking of the v lab stress test whereas rank correlations increase when required capitalization is a function of total assets we show that the risk measures used in risk weighted assets are cross sectionally uncorrelated with market measures of risk as they do not account for the risk that risk will change furthermore the banks that appeared to be best capitalized relative to risk weighted assets were no better than the rest when the european economy deteriorated into the sovereign debt crisis in 2011

exchange rate pass through to bilateral import prices abstract this paper estimates exchange rate pass through for a unique set of bilateral us import prices over the period 1992 2006 it finds evidence of a significant decline in pass through to us import prices from some but not all of the trading partners in the sample these differences rule out a universal decline in pass through rates to bilateral us import prices they further indicate a growing divergence in the import price response to a uniform dollar decline

do negative interest rates make banks less safe we study the impact of increasingly negative central bank policy rates on banks propensity to become undercapitalized in a financial crisis srisk we find that the risk impact of negative rates depends on banks business models large banks with diversified income streams are perceived as less risky while smaller and more traditional banks are perceived as more risky policy rate cuts below zero trigger different srisk responses than an earlier cut to zero

systemic risk and bank business models textabstractin this paper we decompose banks systemic risk into two dimensions the risk of a bank bank tail risk and the link of the bank to the system in financial distress systemic linkage based on extreme value theory we estimate a systemic risk measure that can be decomposed into two subcomponents reflecting these dimensions empirically we assess the relationships of bank business models to the two dimensions of systemic risk the observed differences in these relationships partly explain why micro and macroprudential perspectives sometimes have different implications for banking regulation

some evidence on the efficiency of the sterling dollar and sterling franc forward exchange rates in the interwar period abstract we present new evidence on the time series properties of spot and forward exchange rates for the sterling dollar and sterling franc exchange rates in the interwar period unlike previous researchers we examine the stationarity of the data our results are consistent with the hypothesis that the forward rates for both currencies exhibited a time varying risk premium but that this was non stationary for the former rate and stationary for the latter

costs of banking system instability some empirical evidence abstract this paper assesses the cross country stylised facts on empirical measures of the losses incurred during periods of banking crises we first consider the direct resolution costs to the government and then the broader costs to the welfare of the economy proxied by losses in gdp we find that the cumulative output losses incurred during crisis periods are large roughly 15 20 on average of annual gdp in contrast to previous research we also find that output losses incurred during crises in developed countries are as high or higher on average than those in emerging market economies moreover output losses during crisis periods in developed countries also appear to be significantly larger 10 15 than in neighbouring countries that did not at the time experience severe banking problems in emerging market economies by contrast banking crises appear to be costly only when accompanied by a currency crisis these results seem robust to allowing for macroeconomic conditions at the outset of crisis in particular low and declining output growth that have also contributed to future output losses during crises episodes

capital shortfall a new approach to ranking and regulating systemic risks the financial crisis of 2007 2009 has given way to the sovereign debt crisis of 2010 2012 yet many of the banking issues remain the same we discuss a method to estimate the capital that a financial firm would need to raise if we have another financial crisis this measure of capital shortfall is based on publicly available information but is conceptually similar to the stress tests conducted by us and european regulators we argue that this measure summarizes the major characteristics of systemic risk and provides a reliable interpretation of the past and current financial crises

monitoring indirect contagion abstract we propose two indicators for quantifying the potential exposure of financial institutions to indirect contagion arising from deleveraging of assets in stress scenarios the first indicator the endogenous risk index eri captures spillovers across portfolios arising from deleveraging in stress scenarios the second indicator the indirect contagion index ici measures the systemic importance of a bank by quantifying the loss its distressed liquidation would inflict on other institutions both are computable from portfolio holdings of financial institutions and measures of market depth for the assets held in the portfolio we discuss the micro foundation of these indicators and apply them to the analysis of the vulnerability of the european banking system to indirect contagion using data on portfolio holdings of european banks we show that our indicators correlate to the magnitude of fire sales losses in simulated stress scenarios thus providing a simple to compute proxy for the outcome of stress tests we also show that the information provided by our indicators on the systemic importance of banks is different from indicators based on size thereby providing a measure of interconnectedness complementary to those currently used by supervisors

negative interest rates policy and banks risk taking empirical evidence abstract using a panel dataset of 9421 banks from 59 countries over the period 2009 2018 and a difference in differences estimator this paper aims to assess the effects of negative interest rates on banks risk taking we find that banks risk taking has been lower in countries where negative rates have been implemented this effect depends on the characteristics of a country s banking system namely the level of capitalization and size

pass through of exchange rates and competition between floaters and fixers this paper studies how a rise in the share of u s imports from china or any country with a fixed exchange rate could disproportionately lower pass through of exchange rates to u s import prices we develop a theoretical model showing how changes in the competitive environment induce exporters from other countries to lower markups in response to a dollar depreciation thereby moderating pass through the model indicates that a particular local bias condition is necessary for this effect and that free entry amplifies it the model also produces an approximately log linear structural equation for pass through regressions including the china share panel regressions over 1993 2006 indicate that the rising share of trade from china or from all countries with fixed exchange rates can explain a decline in pass through by about onefifth of its size

pass through of competitors exchange rates to us import and producer prices this paper shows that in theory and bls microdata the prices of imported goods respond to the exchange rates er of the producer s foreign competitors in contrast standard models have no role for competitors ers excluding the effects of competitors exchange rates typically biases upwards estimates of bilateral exchange rate pass through because competitors ers and bilateral ers are positively correlated a multi country version of atkeson and burstein s 2008 industry aggregation model is able to explain a sizable proportion of pass through of competitors exchange rates to import prices and also predicts pass through of foreign competitors prices and pass through of competitors ers to us producer prices both of which are supported in the data the results suggest that pass through will be larger for er movements shared by a greater fraction of foreign competitor countries

systemic risk and bank size abstract in this paper we analyse firm level systemic risk for us and european banks from 2004 to 2012 we observe that common systemic risk indicators are primarily driven by firm size which implies an overriding concern for too big to fail institutions however smaller banks may still pose considerable systemic threats as exemplified by the northern rock debacle in 2007 by introducing a simple standardisation we obtain new risk measures that often prove to be superior predictors of financial distress during the 2007 2009 subprime crisis we conclude that the new measures could be a valuable addition to the existing indicators employed in basel iii to identify systemically important banks

back to the future backtesting systemic risk measures during historical bank runs and the great depression abstract we evaluate the performance of two popular systemic risk measures covar and srisk during eight financial panics in the era before fdic insurance bank stock price and balance sheet data were not readily available for this period we rectify this shortcoming by constructing a novel dataset for the new york banking system before 1933 our evaluation exercise focuses on two challenges ranking systemically important financial institutions sifis and financial crisis prediction we find that covar and srisk meet the sifi ranking challenge that is they help identify systemic institutions in periods of distress beyond what is explained by standard risk measures up to six months before panics in contrast aggregate covar and srisk are only somewhat effective at predicting financial crises

new products with a symmetric aids expenditure function abstract we study a symmetric aids expenditure function that allows for variation in the range of goods solving for the reservation prices for goods not available a convenient form for the expenditure function is obtained this functional form should prove useful in monopolistic competition models were the range of products changes due to entry and exit

goods prices and exchange rates what have we learned import prices typically change by a smaller proportion than the exchange rate between the exporting and importing country recent research indicates that common currency relative prices for similar goods exported to different markets are highly correlated with exchange rates between those markets this evidence suggests that incomplete pass through is a consequence of third degree price discrimination while distance matters for market segmentation borders have independent effects the source of the border effect has not been clearly identified furthermore there is little evidence yet to suggest substantial market power is implied by the observed price discrimination

potential of regional and seasonal requirements in us regulation of fresh lemon imports peterson regional destination and seasonal access restrictions are regulatory options available to mitigate pest risk on imported fresh fruits and vegetables rather than impose an import ban this paper analyses the economic effects of potential entry of argentine lemons into the united states under alternative geographic and seasonal restrictions one challenge to assessing the economic effect of entry is determining the post entry quantity of argentine exports using a homothetic trans log expenditure function we calibrate a set of reservation prices for us demand for argentine lemons based on observed prices and quantities of other lemon varieties these are compared with a set of projected entry prices to determine whether entry will occur and post entry export levels across the policy scenarios argentine lemon exports to the united states range from 8 0 to 14 9 million kg higher prices for argentine lemons reduce its exports to the european union and other markets while lemon exports from chile and mexico are adversely affected broader applications of regional and or seasonal restrictions may be effective policies for achieving pest risk mitigation goals in a manner consistent with wto obligations to minimise distortions to trade

what is the minimal systemic risk in financial exposure networks abstract we quantify how much systemic risk can be eliminated in financial contract networks by rearranging their network topology by using mixed integer linear programming financial linkages are optimally organized whereas the overall economic conditions of banks such as capital buffers total interbank assets and liabilities and average risk weighted exposure remain unchanged we apply the new optimization procedure to 10 snapshots of the austrian interbank market where we focus on the largest 70 banks covering 71 of the market volume the optimization reduces systemic risk measured in debtrank by about 70 showing the huge potential that changing the network structure has on the mitigation of financial contagion existing capital levels would need to be scaled up by a factor of 3 3 to obtain similar levels of debtrank these findings underline the importance of macro prudential rules that focus on the structure of financial networks the new optimization procedure allows us to benchmark actual networks to networks with minimal systemic risk we find that simple topological measures like link density degree assortativity or clustering coefficient fail to explain the large differences in systemic risk between actual and optimal networks we find that if the most systemically relevant banks are tightly connected overall systemic risk is higher than if they are unconnected

does exchange rate stability increase trade and welfare we develop a simple general equilibrium framework to study the effect of the exchange rate system on trade and welfare an important feature of the model is deviations from purchasing power parity caused by rigid price setting in buyers currency we find the following first exchange rate stability is not necessarily associated with more trade in a simple benchmark model with separable preferences and only monetary shocks trade is unaffected by the exchange rate system consistent with most evidence second both trade and welfare can be higher under either exchange rate system depending on preferences and on the monetary policy rules followed under each system finally in general there is no one to one relationship between the levels of trade and welfare across exchange rate systems

threshold arch models and asymmetries in volatility this paper attempts to enlarge the class of threshold heteroscedastic models tarch introduced by zakoian 1991a we show that it is possible to relax the positivity constraints on the parameters of the conditional variance unconstrained models provide a greater generality of the paths allowing for nonlinearities in the volatility cyclical behaviour is permitted as well as different relative impacts of positive and negative shocks on volatility depending on their size we give empirical evidence using french stock returns

banking stress test effects on returns and risks abstract we investigate the effects of the announcement and the disclosure of the clarification methodology and outcomes of the u s banking stress tests on banks equity prices credit risk systematic risk and systemic risk we find evidence that stress tests have moved stock and credit markets following the disclosure of stress test results we also find that banks systematic risk as measured by betas declined in nearly all years after the publication of stress test results our evidence suggests that stress tests affect systemic risk

does uniqueness in banking matter abstract we investigate whether and how the uniqueness of banking activities affects the performance and systemic risk of u s banks we find that banks performing more unique activities exhibit higher profitability and lower risk controlling for size diversification and other key characteristics we further find that banks sensitivity to systemic risk displays an inversely u shaped relation with activity uniqueness we interpret the impact of uniqueness in analogy to recent theories showing that systemic diversity promotes financial stability our study highlights the role of uniqueness in banking and has important implications for policy makers and banking regulators

fixed exchange rates and trade abstract a classic argument for a fixed exchange rate is its promotion of trade empirical support for this however is mixed while one branch of research consistently shows a small negative effect of exchange rate volatility on trade another more recent branch presents evidence of a large positive impact of currency unions on trade this paper helps resolve this disconnect our results which use a new data based classification of fixed exchange rate regimes show a large significant effect of a fixed exchange rate on bilateral trade between a base country and a country that pegs to it these results suggest an economically relevant role for exchange rate regimes in trade determination since a significant amount of world trade is conducted between countries with fixed exchange rates

measuring interconnectedness between financial institutions with bayesian time varying vector autoregressions we propose a market based framework that exploits time varying parameter vector autoregressions to estimate the dynamic network of financial spillover effects we apply it to financials in the standard poor s 500 index and estimate interconnectedness at the sectoral and institutional levels at the sectoral level we uncover two main events in terms of interconnectedness the long term capital management crisis and the 2008 financial crisis after these crisis events we find a gradual decrease in interconnectedness not observable using the classical rolling window approach at the institutional level our framework delivers more stable interconnectedness rankings than other comparable market based measures

markups and the number of firms in a simple model of imperfect competition abstract two counter intuitive results regarding the number of firms emerge from the existing monopolistic competition literature first the number of firms is positively related to the extent of the monopoly power second when the goods market is perfectly competitive the number of firms is reduced to zero this paper proposes a plausible way to escape from these two counter intuitive deficiencies

exchange rates and prices the adjustment of relative prices to exchange rate movements is explained in an industrial organization approach given labor costs in the respective currencies exchange rate movements change costs for firms selling in the home market and thus disturb the industry equilibrium the extent of absolute and relative price adjustment is shown to depend on market integration product substitutability the relative number of domestic and foreign firms and the market structure the impact of exchange rates on prices is illustrated in a variety of approaches including the cournot a dixit and j stiglitz 1977 and s salop 1979 models some empirical evidence is offered in support of the theory copyright 1987 by american economic association

negative monetary policy rates and systemic banks risk taking evidence from the euro area securities register we show that negative monetary policy rates induce systemic banks to reach for yield for identification we exploit the introduction of negative deposit rates by the european central bank in june 2014 and a novel securities register for the 26 largest euro area banking groups banks with more customer deposits are negatively affected by negative rates as they do not pass negative rates to retail customers in turn investing more in securities especially in those yielding higher returns effects are stronger for less capitalized banks private sector financial and nonfinancial securities and dollar denominated securities affected banks also take higher risk in loans