increasing dominance with no efficiency effect abstract i uncover a new force towards increasing dominance the property whereby in dynamic games the leader tends to increase his or her lead in expected terms the new effect results from the strategic choice of covariance in races i assume that players must choose not the amount of resources to spend but how to allocate those resources i show that in equilibrium the laggard chooses a less promising path in effect trading off lower expected value for lower correlation with respect to the leader this results in increasing dominance and holds true even if no joint payoff or efficiency effect is present journal of economic literature classification numbers c7 l1

beauty premium and marriage premium in search equilibrium theory and empirical test we propose a theoretical explanation for the so called beauty premium our approach relies entirely on search frictions and the fact that physical appearance plays an important role in attracting a marriage partner we analyze the interaction between frictional labor and marriage markets making use of what we label constrained job search the optimal strategy entails different reservation wages for different men and we establish the existence of a search equilibrium characterized by a beauty premium and or marriage premium predicted profiles of premia allow for potential falsification tests and point to relevant empirical evidence in support of our theory

evaluating credit risk and loan performance in online peer to peer p2p lending online peer to peer p2p lending has emerged recently this micro loan market could offer certain benefits to both borrowers and lenders using data from the lending club which is one of the popular online p2p lending houses this article explores the p2p loan characteristics evaluates their credit risk and measures loan performances we find that credit grade debt to income ratio fico score and revolving line utilization play an important role in loan defaults loans with lower credit grade and longer duration are associated with high mortality rate the result is consistent with the cox proportional hazard test which suggests that the hazard rate or the likelihood of the loan default increases with the credit risk of the borrowers finally we find that higher interest rates charged on the high risk borrowers are not enough to compensate for higher probability of the loan default the lending club must find ways to attract high fico score and high income borrowers in order to sustain their businesses

evaluating borrower s default risk in peer to peer lending evidence from a lending platform in china recent years have witnessed the popularity of online peer to peer lending which allows individuals to borrow from and lend to each other on an internet based platform using data from a large p2p

beauty and the labor market the authors examine the impact of looks on earnings using interviewers ratings of respondents physical appearance plain people earn less than average looking people who earn less than the good looking the plainness penalty is 5 to 10 percent slightly larger than the beauty premium effects for men are at least as great as for women unattractive women have lower labor force participation rates and marry men with less human capital better looking people sort into occupations where beauty may be more productive but the impact of individuals looks is mostly independent of occupation suggesting the existence of pure employer discrimination copyright 1994 by american economic association

income hedging and portfolio decisions we examine whether the decision to participate in the stock market and other related portfolio decisions are influenced by income hedging motives economic theory predicts that the market participation propensity should increase as the correlation between income growth and stock market returns decreases surprisingly empirical studies find limited support for the income hedging motive using a rich unique dutch data set and the national longitudinal survey of the youth nlsy from the united states we show that when the income return correlation is low individuals exhibit a greater propensity to participate in the market and allocate a larger proportion of their wealth to risky assets even when the income risk is high individuals exhibit a higher propensity to participate in the market when the hedging potential is high these findings suggest that income hedging is an important determinant of stock market participation and asset allocation decisions

religion and bank loan terms we examine whether religion affects the terms of bank loans we hypothesize that lenders value the traits of religious adherents such as risk aversion ethical behavior and honesty and thus offer favorable loan terms to religious borrowers consistent with this hypothesis we find that corporate borrowers located in counties with a high level of religiosity are charged lower interest rates have larger loan amounts and fewer loan covenants these results suggest that the corporate culture of borrowers influences the availability and cost of bank loans

do tournaments have incentive effects much attention has been devoted to studying models of tournaments or situations in which an individual s payment depends only on his or her output or rank relative to that of other competitors academic interest derives from the fact that under certain sets of assumptions tournaments have desirable normative properties because of the incentive structures they provide our paper uses nonexperimental data to test whether tournaments actually elicit effort responses we focus on professional golf tournaments because information on the incentive structure prize distribution and measures of individual output players scores are both available we find strong support for the proposition that the level and structure of prizes in pga tournaments influence players performance

assortative matching and risk sharing abstract this paper explores the sorting patterns in a two sided matching market where agents facing different risks match to share them when preference belongs to the class of harmonic absolute risk aversion hara the risk premium is perfectly transferable within each partnership thus a stable match minimizes the social cost of risk in the systematic risk model where agents are ranked by their holdings of a common risky asset the convexity of the joint risk premium in joint risk size leads to negative assortative matching nam in the idiosyncratic risk model where agents are ranked by their independent riskiness in the sense of second order stochastic dominance ssd nam arises when preference exhibits decreasing absolute risk aversion dara in the sense of ross and riskier background risk leads to more risk averse behavior however nam may fail to arise when riskier background risk leads to more risk tolerant behavior

the learning curve market dominance and predatory pricing sufficient conditions for id and iid are given in the case of two step learning in which a firm reaches the bottom of its learning curve after just two sales however examples are also constructed for the two step learning case in which neither id nor iid holds it is also shown that in equilibrium iid implies that learning is privately disadvantageous although it is socially advantageous finally introducing avoidable fixed costs and possible exit into the model yields a new theory of predatory pricing based on the learning curve hypothesis

what s in a picture evidence of discrimination from prosper com abstract we find evidence of significant racial disparities in a new type of credit market known as peer to peer lending loan listings with blacks in the attached picture are 25 to 35 percent less likely to receive funding than those of whites with similar credit profiles despite the higher average interest rates charged to blacks lenders making such loans earn a lower net return compared to loans made to whites with similar credit profiles because blacks have higher relative default rates these results provide insight into whether the discrimination we find is taste based or statistical

professionals play minimax the implications of the minimax theorem are tested using natural data the tests use a unique data set from penalty kicks in professional soccer games in this natural setting experts play a one shot two person zero sum game the results of the tests are remarkably consistent with equilibrium play in every respect i winning probabilities are statistically identical across strategies for players ii players choices are serially independent the tests have substantial power to distinguish equilibrium play from disequilibrium alternatives these results represent the first time that both implications of von neumann s minimax theorem are supported under natural conditions during the last few decades game theory has contributed to a reshaping of important aspects of the methodology of economics and other social sciences in a large part this is because the language concepts and techniques of non cooperative game theory have become central to many areas of the discipline undoubtedly studying the interaction of ideally rational players greatly aids our understanding of the behaviour of real individuals firms and other agents moreover as kreps 1991 remarks studying the former should aim at understanding the latter the point of game theory is to help economists understand and predict what will happen in economic social and political contexts theoretical contributions should thus feed back to empirical analysis however testing the implications of the theory has proven extremely difficult in the literature the primary reason is that many predictions often hinge on properties of the utility functions and the values of the rewards used even when predictions are invariant over classes of preferences data on rewards are seldom available in natural settings moreover there is often great difficulty in determining strategy sets and in measuring individuals choices effort levels and the incentive structures they face as a result even the most fundamental predictions of game theoretical models have not yet been supported empirically in real situations in view of the substantial problems associated with testing theoretical predictions using natural data many authors have been compelled to test them in experimental settings interestingly enough despite the controlled structure of experiments the results of many experiments during the last few decades typically reject the assumption that subjects are playing according to the theoretical implications of equilibrium play for instance a number of experiments have evaluated the empirical validity of von neumann s minimax theory for two person zero sum games a theory that occupies a central position in our understanding of strategic situations the results have been mixed and are often rather negative see for instance brown and rosenthal 1990 rapoport and boebel 1992 camerer 2003 and the references therein

cognitive abilities and portfolio choice we study the relation between cognitive abilities and stockholding using the recent survey of health ageing and retirement in europe share which has detailed data on wealth and portfolio composition of individuals aged 50 in 11 european countries and three indicators of cognitive abilities mathematical verbal fluency and recall skills we find that the propensity to invest in stocks is strongly associated with cognitive abilities for both direct stock market participation and indirect participation through mutual funds and retirement accounts since the decision to invest in less information intensive assets such as bonds is less strongly related to cognitive abilities we conclude that the association between cognitive abilities and stockholding is driven by information constraints rather than by features of preferences or psychological traits

saving risk sharing and preferences for risk saving decisions are made jointly by household members who generally earn risky incomes consequently to interpret saving patterns it is crucial to analyze the relationship between intrahousehold risk sharing and intertemporal choices to that end in this paper the household is characterized as a group of agents with possibly heterogeneous preferences making efficient decisions two results are obtained first it is shown that risk sharing can increase the amount saved by the household second i find that an increase in risk aversion and prudence of an individual member can reduce household risk aversion and prudence these results are consistent with the empirical evidence collected using the hrs

does player specialization predict player actions evidence from penalty kicks at fifa world cup and uefa euro cup penalty kicks are analysed in the literature as real life experiments for assessing the use of rational mixed strategies by professional players however each penalty kick cannot be considered a repetition of the same event because of the varying background conditions in particular the heterogeneous ability of different players consequently aggregate statistics over data sets composed of a large number of penalty kicks mediate the behaviour of the players in different games and the properties of optimal mixed strategies cannot be tested directly because of aggregation bias in this article we model the heterogeneous ability of players we then test the hypothesis that differently talented players randomize over different actions to achieve this aim we study a data set that collects penalties kicked during shoot out series in the last editions of fifa world cup and uefa euro cup 1994 2012 where kickers are categorized as specialists and non specialists the results support our theoretical predi

are risk aversion and impatience related to cognitive ability is the way that people make risky choices or tradeoffs over time related to cognitive ability this paper investigates whether there is a link between cognitive ability risk aversion and impatience using a representative sample of the population and incentive compatible measures we conduct choice experiments measuring risk aversion and impatience over an annual time horizon for a randomly drawn sample of roughly 1 000 german adults subjects also take part in two different tests of cognitive ability which correspond to sub modules of one of the most widely used iq tests interviews are conducted in subjects own homes we find that lower cognitive ability is associated with greater risk aversion and more pronounced impatience these relationships are significant and robust to controlling for personal characteristics educational attainment income and measures of credit constraints we perform a series of additional robustness checks which help rule out other possible confounds

the impact of pressure on performance evidence from the pga tour abstract do large rewards lead to psychological pressure causing underperformance previous studies have tested this choking phenomenon using the world of sports but such studies often lack an explicit link between performance and reward this study utilizes a large pga tour dataset to more directly analyze the effect of pressure on individual performance by calculating the potential change in earnings from making or missing a putt on the final hole of a tournament we find that as the amount of money riding on a shot increases the likelihood that shot is made is significantly reduced

social interaction and stock market participation we propose that stock market participation is influenced by social interaction in our model any given social investor finds the market more attractive when more of his peers participate we test this theory using data from the health and retirement study and find that social households those who interact with their neighbors or attend church are substantially more likely to invest in the market than non social households controlling for wealth race education and risk tolerance moreover consistent with a peer effects story the impact of sociability is stronger in states where stock market participation rates are higher

iq and stock market participation stock market participation is monotonically related to iq controlling for wealth income age and other demographic and occupational information the high correlation between iq and participation exists even among the affluent supplemental data from siblings studied with an instrumental variables approach and regressions that control for family effects demonstrate that iq s influence on participation extends to females and does not arise from omitted familial and nonfamilial variables high iq investors are more likely to hold mutual funds and larger numbers of stocks experience lower risk and earn higher sharpe ratios we discuss implications for policy and finance research

the determinants of attitudes towards strategic default on mortgages we use survey data to measure households propensity to default on mortgages even if they can afford to pay them strategic default when the value of the mortgage exceeds the value of the house the willingness to default increases in both the absolute and the relative size of the home equity shortfall our evidence suggests that this willingness is affected by both pecuniary and non pecuniary factors such as views about fairness and morality we also find that exposure to other people who strategically defaulted increases the propensity to default strategically because it conveys information about the probability of being sued

negative assortative matching of risk averse agents with transferable expected utility abstract i give necessary and sufficient conditions for expected utility to be transferable among agents with different state independent risk preferences who share a risk they cannot influence in an assignment game where participants choose partners based on risk aversion the conditions permit a simple proof that matching is negative assortative

psychological pressure in competitive environments new evidence from randomized natural experiments dynamic competitive settings may create psychological pressure when feedback about the performance of competitors is provided before the end of the competition such psychological pressure could produce a first mover advantage despite a priori equal winning probabilities using data from a randomized natural experiment penalty shootouts in soccer we reexamine evidence by apesteguia and palacios huerta apesteguia j palacios huerta i 2010 psychological pressure in competitive environments evidence from a randomized natural experiment amer econom rev 100 5 2548 2564 they report a 21 percentage point advantage for first movers over second movers in terms of winning probabilities extending their sample of 129 shootouts to 540 we fail to detect any significant first mover advantage our results are fully consistent with recent evidence from other sports contests this paper was accepted by teck ho behavioral economics

the role of social capital in financial development to identify the effect of social capital on financial development we exploit social capital differences within italy in high social capital areas households are more likely to use checks invest less in cash and more in stock have higher access to institutional credit and make less use of informal credit the effect of social capital is stronger where legal enforcement is weaker and among less educated people these results are not driven by omitted environmental variables since we show that the behavior of movers is still affected by the level of social capital of the province where they were born

genetic variation in financial decision making individuals differ in how they construct their investment portfolios yet empirical models of portfolio risk typically account only for a small portion of the cross sectional variance this paper asks whether genetic variation can explain some of these individual differences following a major pension reform swedish adults had to form a portfolio from a large menu of funds we match data on these investment decisions with the swedish twin registry and find that approximately 25 of individual variation in portfolio risk is due to genetic variation we also find that these results extend to several other aspects of financial decision making

the provision of incentives in firms i ncentives are the essence of economics despite many wide ranging claims about their supposed importance there has been little empirical assessment of incentive provision for workers the purpose of this paper is to critically overview existing work on the provision of incentives since the interests of workers and their employers are not always aligned a large theoretical literature has emphasized how firms design compensation contracts to induce employees to operate in the firm s interest this literature has reached into many areas of compensation and has pointed to a multitude of different mechanisms that can be used to induce workers to act in the interests of their employers these include piece rates options discretionary bonuses promotions profit sharing efficiency wages deferred compensation and so on my objective here is to evaluate this literature in the light of a growing empirical literature on compensation where possible i will address the literature from two perspectives first an underlying assumption of this literature is that individuals respond to contracts that reward performance accordingly i consider whether agents behave in this way and whether these responses are always in the firm s interest second i address whether firms write contracts with these responses in mind in other words do contracts look like the predictions of the theory incentives are provided to workers

a note on the height wage differential in the uk cross sectional evidence from the bhps abstract using bhps data for the first time evidence for the height earnings relationship is updated for the uk in contrast to prior findings baseline height differentials mainly vanish once individuals occupation and non linear height gradients are accounted for

making sense of the labor market height premium evidence from the british household panel survey we use data from the british household panel survey to examine the labor market premium in height most of the premium is explained by higher average educational attainment and sorting into higher status occupations and industries by those who are taller

pricing in the online invoice trading market first empirical evidence abstract in recent years online invoice trading has gained importance in providing smes with short term financing in this paper we present first empirical evidence concerning the question whether the risk of payment difficulties is appropriately reflected in the pricing variables to this end we investigate predictors of default of online invoice trading platforms we analyze both the probability of default and the loss rate and find that the interest rate the duration and the percentage funded have good predictive power furthermore we show that the pricing mechanism auction vs fixed prices helps to explain defaults on online invoice trading platforms

anxiety and performance a learning by doing model in this article we show that a standard economic model the endogenous learning by doing model captures several major themes from the anxiety literature in psychology in our model anxiety is a fully endogenous construct that can be separated naturally into its cognitive and physiological components as such our results are directly comparable with hypotheses and evidence from psychology we show that anxiety can serve a motivating function which suggests potential applications in the principal agent literature it doesn t take much technique to roll a 1 68 inch ball along a smooth level surface into or in the immediate vicinity of a 4 5 inch hole with no pressure on you you can do it one handed most of the time but there is always pressure on the shorter putts 90 percent of the rounds i play in major championships i play with a bit of a shake jack nicklaus quoted in patmore 1986 p 75

income risk borrowing constraints and portfolio choice economic theory suggests that uninsurable income risk and the expectation of future borrowing constraints can reduce the share of risky assets in a household s portfolio if the utility function exhibits decreasing absolute risk aversion and decreasing prudence an individual will reduce his exposure to rate of return risks when confronted with other independent risks if there are transaction costs the expectation of future borrowing constraints should induce individuals to keep a lower proportion of their wealth in the form of illiquid and risky assets the authors find support for these propositions in a cross section of italian households copyright 1996 by american economic association

physiology and development why the west is taller than the rest we hypothesise that the timing of the fertility transition is an important determinant of comparative physiological development in support we provide a model of long run growth that elucidates the links between population size average body size and income during development industrialisation is shown to be accompanied by a reduction in family size and an intensification of nutrition per child early transition countries are therefore expected to be more developed today economically and physiologically empirically the timing of the fertility transition is strongly correlated with average body size across countries

baby boomer retirement security the roles of planning financial literacy and housing wealth abstract we compare wealth holdings across two cohorts of the health and retirement study the early baby boomers in 2004 and individuals in the same age group in 1992 levels and patterns of total net worth have changed relatively little over time though boomers rely more on housing equity than their predecessors most important planners in both cohorts arrive close to retirement with much higher wealth levels and display higher financial literacy than non planners instrumental variables estimates show that planning behavior can explain the differences in savings and why some people arrive close to retirement with very little or no wealth

height health and cognitive function at older ages research across a number of disciplines has highlighted the role of early life health and circumstance in determining health and economic outcomes at older ages nutrition in utero and in infancy may set the stage for the chronic disease burden that an individual will face in middle age david j barker 1998 barker et al 1989 johann eriksson et al 2001 childhood health may also have significant effects on economic outcomes in adulthood collectively a set of childhood health measures can account for a large fraction of the explained variance in employment and social status observed among a british cohort followed from birth into adulthood anne case angela fertig and christina paxson 2005

group based funeral insurance in ethiopia and tanzania a funeral is a costly occasion this paper studies indigenous insurance institutions developed to cope with the high costs of funerals based on evidence from rural areas in tanzania and ethiopia these institutions are based on well defined rules and regulations often offering premium based insurance for funeral expenses increasingly they are also offering other forms of insurance and credit to cope with hardship the paper argues that the characteristics and inclusiveness of these institutions make them well placed as models to broaden insurance provision and other developmental activities in these communities the history of these institutions is characterised by a resistance to attempts of political capture and helps to understand their apparent resistance to engage more broadly with ngos and government agencies as a result any attempt to expand their activities will have to be done cautiously

mental retirement and schooling we assess the validity of differences in eligibility ages for early and old age pension benefits as instruments for estimating the effect of retirement on cognitive functioning because differences in eligibility ages across country and gender are correlated with differences in years of schooling which affect cognitive functioning at old ages they are invalid as instruments without controlling for schooling we show by means of simulation and a replication study that unless the model incorporates schooling the estimated effect of retirement is negatively biased this explains a large part of the mental retirement effects which have recently been found

why beauty matters we decompose the beauty premium in an experimental labor market where employers determine wages of workers who perform a maze solving task this task requires a true skill which we show to be unaffected by physical attractiveness we find a sizable beauty premium and can identify three transmission channels a physically attractive workers are more confident and higher confidence increases wages b for a given level of confidence physically attractive workers are wrongly considered more able by employers c controlling for worker confidence physically attractive workers have oral skills such as communication and social skills that raise their wages when they interact with employers our methodology can be adopted to study the sources of discriminatory pay differentials in other settings

psychological expected utility theory and anticipatory feelings we extend expected utility theory to situations in which agents experience feelings of anticipation prior to the resolution of uncertainty we show how these anticipatory feelings may result in time inconsistency we provide an example from portfolio theory to illustrate the potential impact of anticipation on asset prices

social capital and the cost of equity abstract we find that a firm s cost of equity is inversely related to the level of social capital in the state where the firm is headquartered further the cost of equity declines when firms move their headquarters from a low social capital state to a state with higher social capital the negative relation between social capital and the cost of equity is statistically significant only for firms facing relatively low levels of product market competition and is not significant for firms with good firm specific reputations we interpret these findings as indicating that social capital serves as a societal monitoring mechanism and can be value enhancing for firms that are perceived as having greater agency problems and face weak product market monitoring

local labor market impacts of energy boom bust boom in western canada abstract the impacts of energy price boom and bust are analyzed through the differential growth in employment and earnings between local labor markets with and without energy resources in western canada the estimated differentials attributed to the boom induced labor demand shocks show significant direct and indirect impacts on the earnings and employment within the energy extraction and other non energy local sectors respectively the local job multipliers indicate that job creation within the energy extraction sector leads to modest job creation within the non energy local sectors during boom periods for every ten energy extraction jobs created during a boom period approximately three construction jobs two retail jobs and four and a half service jobs are created

beauty weight and skin color in charitable giving abstract this paper examines bias in online charitable microfinance lending we find that charitable lenders on a large peer to peer online microfinance website appear to favor more attractive lighter skinned and less obese borrowers borrowers who appear more needy honest and creditworthy also receive funding more quickly these effects are quantitatively significant borrowers with beauty one standard deviation above average are treated as though they are requesting approximately 11 less money statistical discrimination does not appear to explain our findings as these borrower attributes are uncorrelated with loan performance or borrower enterprise performance the evidence suggests implicit bias could explain our findings more experienced lenders who may rely less on implicit attitudes appear to exhibit less bias than inexperienced lenders

nature or nurture what determines investor behavior abstract using data on identical and fraternal twins complete financial portfolios we decompose the cross sectional variation in investor behavior we find that a genetic factor explains about one third of the variance in stock market participation and asset allocation family environment has an effect on the behavior of young individuals but this effect is not long lasting and disappears as an individual gains experience frequent contact among twins results in similar investment behavior beyond a genetic factor twins who grew up in different environments still display similar investment behavior our interpretation of a genetic component of the decision to invest in the stock market is that there are innate differences in factors affecting effective stock market participation costs we attribute the genetic component of asset allocation the relative amount invested in equities and the portfolio volatility to genetic variation in risk preferences

local labor markets and natural resources a synthesis of the literature a primary way that natural resources affect a locality is through the demand for labor with greater extraction requiring more workers shifts in labor demand can be measured through changes in employment and earnings the main labor market outcomes or through changes in the population and income more generally these changes may spillover into the nonresource economy leading to greater overall effects or possibly crowd out be spread unequally across the population thereby altering the distribution of income and the poverty rate or influence educational attainment as people choose between additional schooling and work in this review the literature linking natural resources to local labor markets is synthesized by organizing existing studies according to their resource measurement and the outcomes that they consider this synthesis provides an accessible guide to a literature that has boomed in recent years it also identifies promising avenues for future research and lays a foundation to further generalize the evidence through an eventual meta analysis

discouragement effect and intermediate prizes in multi stage contests evidence from davis cup abstract the discouragement effect of being the lagging player in multi stage contests is a well documented phenomenon in this study we utilize data from 2447 davis cup matches in team tennis tournaments to test the effect of being behind or ahead on individuals performance with and without intermediate prizes using several different strategies to disentangle the effect of being ahead in the interim score from the effect of selection we find the usual discouragement effect however the discouragement effect disappears after the introduction of intermediate prizes in the form of ranking points the lagging favorite had close to a 20 percentage point greater probability of winning compared to matches without such a prize we show that this result is not driven by the selection of better players into tournaments with intermediate prizes as predicted by previous theoretical studies our empirical findings suggest that intermediate prizes may mitigate or even eliminate the ahead behind effects that arise in multi stage contests

rational herding in microloan markets microloan markets allow individual borrowers to raise funding from multiple individual lenders we use a unique panel data set that tracks the funding dynamics of borrower listings on prosper com the largest microloan market in the united states we find evidence of rational herding among lenders well funded borrower listings tend to attract more funding after we control for unobserved listing heterogeneity and payoff externalities moreover instead of passively mimicking their peers irrational herding lenders engage in active observational learning rational herding they infer the creditworthiness of borrowers by observing peer lending decisions and use publicly observable borrower characteristics to moderate their inferences counterintuitively obvious defects e g poor credit grades amplify a listing s herding momentum as lenders infer superior creditworthiness to justify the herd similarly favorable borrower characteristics e g friend endorsements weaken the herding effect as lenders attribute herding to these observable merits follow up analysis shows that rational herding beats irrational herding in predicting loan performance this paper was accepted by pradeep chintagunta marketing

preemptive patenting and the persistence of monopoly this article takes a different tack and inquires whether institutions such as the patent system create opportunities for firms with monopoly power to maintain their monopoly power the results apply to other situations such as brand identification spatial location and capacity expansion which share the characteristic that early or preemptive actions may lower the returns to potential competitors

employment risk and job seeker performance using detailed labor recruitment data in combination with randomized variation in individuals outside job opportunities i show that providing job certainty during recruitment leads to substantial job seeker performance gains job seeker performance is highest and effort lowest among those assigned to receive a guaranteed outside job offer where employment risk is eliminated while performance is lowest and effort highest among those receiving no chance of an outside job offer performance among those assigned uncertain outside job offers consistently lies between the two extremes i conjecture that the pattern of results is most consistent with stress induced performance reductions attributable to job uncertainty i rule out several other competing theories

interim rank risk taking and performance in dynamic tournaments we empirically study the impact of interim rank on risk taking and performance using data on professionals competing in tournaments for large rewards as we observe both the intended action and the performance of each participant we can measure risk taking and performance separately we present two key findings first risk taking exhibits an inverted u relationship with interim rank revealing information on relative performance induces individuals trailing just behind the interim leaders to take greater risks second competitors systematically underperform when ranked closer to the top despite higher incentives to perform well disclosing information on relative ranking hinders interim leaders

tournaments fairness and the prouhet thue morse sequence i introduction mathematician axel thue discovered in thue 1912 the prouhet thue morse sequence while studying avoidable patterns in binary sequences of symbols e g 0 1 this sequence is defined by forming the bitwise negation of the beginning t 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 where 1 is the bitwise negation of 0 1 0 is the bitwise negation of 0 1 1 0 0 1 is the bitwise negation of 0 1 1 0 and so on formally the prouhet thue morse sequence t t o is defined recursively by t sub 0 0 and t sub 2n t sub n t sub 2n 1 t sub n for all n 0 where for u c 0 1 we define u 1 u this sequence t was already implicit in prouhet 1851 and later rediscovered by morse 1921 in connection with differential geometry worldwide interest in this sequence has developed during the past century as research has shown that it is ubiquitous in the scientific literature in fact this sequence occurs as a natural answer to various apparently unrelated questions for instance in combinatorics in differential geometry in number theory e g the prouhet tarry escott problem in group theory e g the burnside problem in real analysis e g the knopp function in the physics literature on controlled disorder and quasi crystals in music in chess in fractals and turtle graphics e g the koch snowflake and in many others see allouche and shallit 1999 for a survey here we note that the prouhet thue morse sequence can also be the natural answer to an important problem in economics how should the order of a sequential tournament competition between two identical agents be determined to make it as fair as possible that is how should the order in a sequential tournament be determined to minimize any advantage that either competitor may have from both an ex ante perspective and an ex post perspective ii analysis tournament competitions are pervasive in real life and often characterize competitive situations such as competitions for promotion in internal labor markets in firms and organizations patent races political elections student competitions in schools penalty shoot outs in soccer chess matches and many others see lazear and rosen 1989 prendergast 1999 and other references therein there are numerous reasons why in a sequential tournament the order may give either a first mover advantage or a second mover advantage see dixit and pindyck 1994 cabral 2002 2003 and other references therein these include psychological reasons if for instance leading or lagging has an impact on the performance of the competing agents apesteguia and palacios huerta 2010 gonzalez diaz and palacios huerta 2011 in other words a given order that is fair from an ex ante perspective e g randomly determined need not be ex post fair if it gives any type of advantage strategic or psychological to either player consider two players a and b that play against each other an even number of times typically a fair coin is used to randomly select the order of play and the order follows a strict alternation of the chance to perform the task e g in penalty shoot outs in soccer color of pieces in chess matches a b a b a b a b a b a b the question we are interested in is the following is there a way to improve the ex post fairness of this sequential order assume now that a coin flip selects a to perform his task first and b second in the first two rounds of a sequential competition what should the order in the next two rounds be to make it ex post fair if the order a b offers any kind of advantage to either player then by reversing the order in the next two rounds we will tend to compensate for that advantage the resulting sequence is a b b a and of course reversing is innocuous if no advantage existed in the first place how about the next four rounds the same principle applies by reversing the order followed up to that point we will tend to compensate for any potential advantage that might have been given to either one of the players until then

tournament rewards and risk taking this article considers a lazear rosen tournament model where agents can influence both the spread of their output distribution risk taking and its mean the unique equilibrium induces excessive risk taking and a low level of effort by modifying the tournament to give the highest prize to the agent with the most moderate output a low level of risk taking and high level of effort can be sustained as an equilibrium the first result can be useful to understand the relative performance evaluation puzzle of executive compensation and the second result can be useful to understand puzzling workplace norms promoting mediocrity

income risk and portfolio choice an empirical study this paper investigates the relationship between portfolio choice and labor income risk in the national longitudinal survey of youth 1979 cohort permanent income risk variability of shocks to income that have permanent effect significantly reduces the share of risky assets in the household s portfolio while transitory income risk variability of shocks with no lasting effect does not this result provides strong evidence that households portfolio choices respond to labor income risks in a manner consistent with economic theory theoretical work has shown that uninsurable labor income risk is likely to reduce the share of risky assets in an investor s portfolio pratt and zeckhauser 1987 kimball 1993 bertaut and haliassos 1997 koo 1998 1999 elmendorf and kimball 2000 in a dynamic context when labor in come consists of components of different persistence the magnitude of this effect should depend on the persistence associated with the risk the risk to a persistent component should have a larger effect than the risk to a transi tory component surprisingly however empirical work has not examined this interesting implication of the theory this paper uses the rich information con tained in the national longitudinal survey of youth 1979 cohort nlsy79 to examine this implication we assume that labor income has two components permanent and transitory we then measure the risks of the components for a sample of households in the survey and estimate their effects on the risky asset share previous empirical

investor churn analysis in a p2p lending market this study aims to determine why investors leave a peer to peer p2p lending market and the pathways through which several factors affect investor churn to this end this study performed cox pro

psychological pressure in competitive environments evidence from a randomized natural experiment much like cognitive abilities emotional skills can have major eects on performance and economic outcomes this paper studies the behavior of professional subjects involved in a dynamic competition in their own natural environment the setting is a penalty shoot out in soccer where two teams compete in a tournament framework taking turns in a sequence of ve penalty kicks each as the kicking order is determined by the random outcome of a coin ip the treatment and control

anticipation and the valuation of delayed consumption this paper presents a model of intertemporal choice that incorporates savoring and dread i e utility from anticipat ion of delayed consumption the model explains why an individual with positive time preference may delay desirable outcomes or get unpleas ant outcomes over with quickly contrary to the prediction of convent ional formulations of intertemporal choice implications of savoring and dread for savings behavior empirical estimation of discount rate s and public policy efforts to combat myopic behavior are explored the model provides an explanation for common violations of the indepe ndence axiom as applied to intertemporal choice copyright 1987 by royal economic society

risk taking in selection contests abstract we study contests where the strategic variable is the degree of risk taking rather than the amount of effort the selection efficiency of such contests is examined we show that the selection efficiency of a contest may be improved by limiting the competition in two ways by having a small number of contestants and by restricting contestant quality

the effect of adolescent experience on labor market outcomes the case of height taller workers receive a wage premium net of differences in family background the disparity is similar in magnitude to the race and gender gaps we exploit variation in an individual s height over time to explore how height affects wages controlling for teen height essentially eliminates the effect of adult height on wages for white men the teen height premium is not explained by differences in resources or endowments the teen height premium is partially mediated through participation in high school sports and clubs we estimate the monetary benefits of a medical treatment for children that increases height

some stronger measures of risk aversion in the small and the large with applications the arrow pratt measures of risk aversion for von neumann morgenstern utility functions have become workhorses for analyzing problems in the microeconomics of uncertainty they have been used to characterize the qualitative properties of demand in insurance and asset markets to examine the properties of risk taking in taxation models and to study the interaction between risk and life cycle savings problems to name just a few applications equally importantly they have generated the linear risk tolerance class of utility functions which has provided canonical examples in such diverse areas as portfolio theory and the theory of teams despite these successes there have been a number of areas for which the results have been weaker than hoped it is natural to use the risk aversion measures to compare the behavior of individuals in risky choice situations for example consider the individual portfolio choice problem in a two asset world with a riskless asset and a risky asset if individual a has a uniformly higher arrow pratt coefficient of risk aversion than individual b then b will always choose a portfolio combination with more wealth invested in the risky asset but suppose that both assets are risky now there is no obvious sense in which the more risk averse individual can be said to hold a less risky portfolio but it seems strange that such a simple alteration should destroy the analytics which support the basic intuition similarly consider the basic insurance problem if one individual a is more risk averse than another b in the arrow pratt sense it follows that a will pay a larger premium to insure against a random loss than will b typically though an individual evaluates partial rather than total insurance that is only some gambles can be insured against and others must be retained in this case even when the gambles which are retained are independent from those which are insured it is no longer true that the individual whose arrow pratt measure of risk aversion is higher will pay a larger insurance premium the situation is no better when we consider comparative statics exercises for a single individual decreasing absolute risk aversion in the sense of arrow and

statistical discrimination productivity and the height of immigrants building on the economic research that demonstrates a positive relationship between height and worker ability the author compares wage returns to height for immigrants and for natives to explore possible explanations for the positive wage height gradient using multiple data sets the article presents a robust empirical finding that the wage gains associated with height are almost twice as large for immigrants as for native born individuals this wage relationship occurs because the productivity gap between tall and short immigrants is greater than the productivity gap between tall and short native born workers the author next tests for the possibility that in the relative absence of other sources of information about immigrants employers place more importance on height for immigrants than for native born individuals the evidence does not support the hypothesis of statistical discrimination based on height

trust and credit the role of appearance in peer to peer lending although it is well known that appearance based impressions affect labor market and election outcomes little is known about the role appearance plays in financial transactions we address this question using photographs of potential borrowers from a peer to peer lending site consistent with the trust intensive nature of lending we find that borrowers who appear more trustworthy have higher probabilities of having their loans funded moreover borrowers who appear more trustworthy indeed have better credit scores and default less often overall our findings suggest that impressions of trustworthiness matter in financial transactions as they predict investor as well as borrower behavior a man i do not trust could not get money from me on all the bonds in christendom john pierpont morgan 1913 the author 2012 published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies all rights reserved for permissions please e mail journals permissions oup com oxford university press

when pressure sinks performance evidence from diving competitions tournaments are designed to enhance participants effort and productivity however ranking near the top may increase psychological pressure and reduce performance we empirically study the impact of interim rank on performance using data from international diving tournaments we find that competitors systematically underperform when ranked closer to the top despite higher incentives to perform well

trust us to repay social trust long term interest rates and sovereign credit ratings this paper asks whether the sensitivity of market long term interest rates and credit ratings is associated with cross country differences in informal institutions measured by social trust we note a number of theoretical mechanisms that could imply that similar objective problems are more likely to be effectively dealt with in higher trust societies a set of panel estimates across middle and high income countries reveal that interest rates and ratings are substantially more sensitive to inflation and growth problems in low trust countries this finding sheds light on the differential market reactions to economic problems in seemingly comparable countries jel codes g12 a13

group lending local information and peer selection this paper analyzes how group lending programs use joint liability to utilize local information that borrowers have about each other s projects through self selection of group members in the group formation stage these schemes are shown to lead to positive assortative matching in group formation faced with the same contract this makes the effective cost of borrowing lower to safer borrowers because they have safer partners conditional on success their expected dues to the lender are lower than that of riskier borrowers the resulting improvement in the pool of borrowers is shown to increase repayment rates and welfare q 1999 elsevier science b v all rights reserved

gender gap in peer to peer lending evidence from china abstract this paper documents and analyzes the gender gap in the online credit market using data from renrendai a leading peer to peer lending platform in china we show that lending to female borrowers is associated with better loan performance including a lower probability of default a higher expected profit and a lower expected loss than for their male peers however despite the higher creditworthiness we don t find any measurable gender impact on funding success rate meaning that female borrowers have to compensate lenders by providing higher profitability to achieve a similar funding probability these evidences indicate the existence of a gender gap that discriminate against female borrowers further analysis implies that this gender gap is independent of the amount of information disclosed by borrowers

sex and credit do gender interactions matter for credit market outcomes abstract this paper studies the effects of gender interactions on the supply of and demand for credit using data from a large albanian lender we document that first time borrowers assigned to officers of the opposite sex are less likely to return for a second loan the effect is larger when officers have little prior exposure to borrowers of the other gender and when they have more discretion to act on their gender beliefs as proxied by financial market competition and branch size we also find that first time borrowers matched with opposite sex officers pay higher interest rates and receive smaller and shorter maturity loans but do not experience higher arrears our results are consistent with the existence of a gender bias and learning effects that lead to the disappearance of the bias

first in first win evidence on schedule effects in round robin tournaments in mega events the order of actions in contests may have a significant effect on performance in this study we examine the role of the schedule in round robin tournaments with sequential games between three and four contestants our empirical analysis based on soccer fifa world cups and uefa european championships and on two olympic wrestling events reveals that there is a substantial advantage to the contestant who competes in the first and third matches our findings are in line with the hypothesis that winning probabilities in multi stage contests with sequential games are endogenously depending on the schedule of contests as predicted by game theoretical models we also discuss possible ways to reduce the effect of the schedule

ownership of stocks and mutual funds a panel data analysis this paper analyzes the ownership dynamics of stocks and mutual funds using representative household panel data the dutch center savings survey 1993 1998 a bivariate dynamic binary choice model is introduced allowing for interactions between the two types of assets we find that unobserved heterogeneity and state dependence play a large role for both types of assets the positive relation between ownership of one type in one period and the other type in the next period is explained by correlated unobserved heterogeneity a negative state dependence effect of lagged ownership of stocks on ownership of mutual funds is found which can be explained by the costs of shifting funds across the two forms of stockholding

consumption smoothing migration and marriage evidence from rural india a significant proportion of migration in low income countries particularly in rural areas is composed of moves by women for the purpose of marriage we seek to explain these mobility patterns by examining marital arrangements among indian households in particular we hypothesize that the marriage of daughters to locationally distant dispersed yet kinship related households is a manifestation of implicit interhousehold contractual arrangements aimed at mitigating income risks and facilitating consumption smoothing in an environment characterized by information costs and spatially covariant risks analysis of longitudinal south indian village data lends support to the hypothesis marriage cum migration contributes significantly to a reduction in the variability of household food consumption farm households afflicted with more variable profits tend to engage in longer distance marriage cum migration the hypothesized and observed marriage cum migration patterns are in dissonance with standard models of marriage or migration that are concerned primarily with search costs and static income gains

stature obesity and portfolio choice using multiple u s and european data sources we show that observed physical attributes are related to participation in financial markets specifically we find that individuals who are relatively tall and of normal weight are more likely to hold stocks in their financial portfolios we consider several potential mechanisms that could drive the relation between physical attributes and portfolio decisions we find that teenage social experiences as well as genetic and prenatal endowments that are fixed at birth are the two channels through which height affects financial decisions furthermore we find that the relation between body mass index and portfolio decisions is largely driven by education and race data as supplemental material are available at http dx doi org 10 1287 mnsc 2016 2508 this paper was accepted by wei jiang finance

cognitive performance in competitive environments evidence from a natural experiment competitive situations that involve cognitive performance are widespread in labor markets schools and organizations including test taking competition for promotion in firms and others this paper studies cognitive performance in a high stakes competitive environment the analysis takes advantage of a natural experiment that randomly allocates different emotional states across professional subjects competing in a cognitive task the setting is a chess match where two players play an even number of chess games against each other alternating the color of the pieces white pieces confer an advantage for winning a chess game and who starts the match with these pieces is randomly decided the theoretical analysis shows that in this setting there is no rational reason why winning frequencies should be better than 50 50 in favor of the player drawing the white pieces in the first game yet we find that observed frequencies are about 60 40 differences in performance are also stronger when the competing subjects are more similar in cognitive skills we conclude that the evidence is consistent with the hypothesis that psychological elements affect cognitive performance in the face of experience competition and high stakes

coupling couples with copulas analysis of assortative matching on risk attitude we investigate patterns of assortative matching on risk attitude using self reported ordinal data on risk attitudes for males and females within married couples from the german socio economic panel over the period 2004 2012 we apply a novel copula based bivariate panel ordinal model estimation is in two steps first a copula based markov model is used to relate the marginal distribution of the response in different time periods separately for males and females second another copula is used to couple the males and females conditional on the past distributions we find positive dependence both in the middle of the distribution and in the joint tails and we interpret this as positive assortative matching pam hence we reject standard assortative matching theories based on risk sharing assumptions and favor models based on alternative assumptions such as the ability of agents to control income risk we also find evidence of assimilation that is pam appearing to increase with years of marriage jel c33 c51 d81