international coordination of trade and domestic policies the past half century has seen a dramatic multilateral reduction in tariff barriers under general agreement on tariffs and trade gatt negotiations however as tariff barriers have fallen attention has shifted to the use of domestic policies as secondary trade barriers a primary concern is that as countries sign trade agreements that constrain their ability to pursue trade goals through trade policy there will be unilateral incentives for governments to distort their domestic policies as a secondary means of protection 1 increasingly international trade disputes revolve around a country s use of internal regulations as a means of restricting trade the united states has successfully challenged the system of liquor taxes in both japan and korea as discriminating against imported liquor while venezuela and brazil have challenged american standards for reformulated and conventional gasoline as trade protection masquerading as environmentalism gatt contains several articles concerning the international regulation of domestic policies but the question of how to fully incorporate domestic policies within gatt negotiations and other international trade agreements remains contentious indeed at both the ministerial meeting in 1994 at the close of the uruguay round and the recent unsuccessful ministerial conference in seattle many gatt delegates renewed demands for the relationship between trade and various domestic policies e g environmental policy labor standards or competition policy to be examined despite the importance that has recently been placed on international cooperation over domestic policies no theoretical basis exists for considering how to cooperate over both trade and domestic policies within an international agreement previous papers on negotiation over two instruments of protection e g copeland 1989 1990 thomas l hungerford 1991 have assumed asymmetric limitations on cooperation i e they assume that one of the two instruments is either nonobservable or nonnegotiable this paper extends such work by investigating cooperation over two negotiable instruments of protection under symmetric limitations on cooperation and provides insight into the design of international trade agreements that incorporate cooperation over domestic policies i adopt the view that enforcement issues are central to the understanding of international cooperation one of the challenges of international cooperation is the absence of a central authority to enforce the terms of an agreement without access to an external enforcement mechanism international agreements are viable only as long as member countries view continued cooperation to be in their own self interest i e the benefits from cooperating outweigh the potential gains from cheating 2 while the gatt department of economics university of miami p o box 248126 coral gables fl 33124 e mail ederington miami edu i would like to thank bob staiger bob baldwin wolfgang keller phillip mccalman jenny minier seminar participants at the nber conference on trade the environment and natural resources and two anonymous referees for comments on earlier versions of this paper any remaining errors are of course my own for example brian r copeland 1990 examined negotiation over one trade barrier leaving a secondary trade barrier e g nontariff barriers domestic legislation etc to be set noncooperatively he shows that trade liberalization will induce substitution toward the less efficient nonnegotiable instrument of protection due to the unilateral incentives to maintain trade protection facing countries thus within a cooperative framework the two types of barriers serve as imperfect substitutes for each other 2 as stated by kenneth w dam in his review of the gatt institution the best guarantee that a commitment of any kind will be kept particularly in an international setting where courts are of limited importance and even more important marshals and jails are nonexistent is that the parties continue to view adherence to their agreement in their mutual interest thus the gatt system unlike most legal systems is not designed to exclude self help in the form of retaliation rather retaliation subjected to established procedures and kept within prescribed bounds is made the heart of the gatt system dam 1970 pp 80 81

the role of multilateral institutions in international trade cooperation the world trade organization wfo lacks the power to directly enforce agreements it is therefore important to understand what role the wto can play to facilitate international cooperation and whether a multilateral institution can offer distinct advantages over a web of bilateral agreements this paper examines two potential benefits of a multilateral trade institution first verifying violations of the agreements and informing third parties thus facilitating multilateral reputation mechanisms second promoting multilateral trade negotiations rather than a web of bilateral negotiations the model suggests that a multilateral approach is particularly important when there are strong imbalances in bilateral trading relationships

a note on the optimal tariff retaliation and the welfare loss from tariff wars in a framework with intraindustry trade abstract this paper uses krugman s 1980 model of trade with product differentiation and monopolistic competition to examine the effects of a uniform ad valorem tariff the main results are there exists an optimal tariff even for a small economy and the optimal tariff rate is an increasing function of the size of the economy and the degree of production differentiation under reasonable parameter assumptions a tariff war between two countries of equal size in which each country retaliates by imposing its own optimal tariff causes a welfare loss equivalent to a drop in income of about 4 percent

education work and crime a human capital approach this article develops a model of crime in which human capital increases the opportunity cost of crime from foregone work and expected costs associated with incarceration older more intelligent and more educated adults should commit fewer street unskilled crimes white collar crimes decline less or increase with age and education predictions for age crime and education crime relationships receive broad empirical support in self report data from the national longitudinal survey of youth and arrest data from the uniform crime reports the effects of education training and wage subsidies as well as enforcement policies on criminal behavior are discussed

trade liberalization and the environment in the pacific basin coordinated approaches to mexican trade and environment policy in this paper we analyze the environmental implications of growth and opening up of trade in mexico based on an empirical economywide model in particular we study how tradeoffs between growth and environmental objectives can be minimized by using targeted policies on pollution emissions in coordination with outward oriented trade strategies most economywide studies of trade and environment linkages rely on effluent intensities associated with output and do not allow for substitution between nonpolluting factors labor and capital and polluting intermediate consumption such as chemicals or energy lee and roland holst by contrast pollution emissions in the present model are linked to using polluting inputs rather than directly to output levels we also embed this analysis in a dynamic framework to take account of exogenous components of factor supply and productivity growth over the twenty year period 1990 to 2010 the analysis is presented in three stages first pollution abatement policies are considered alone and their effects on growth sectoral allocation and trade are evaluated the next step is to consider trade liberalization alone trade distortions in place before the nafta and uruguay round accords are removed progressively over time and results calibrate the expansionary effects of trade liberalization as well as its environmental implications these include win win cases such as in the fertilizer sector as well as intensified environmental degradation arising from the transportation sector in a third and last scenario we combine environmental and trade policies and show how they interact these results indicate that the combination of policies generally can mitigate the undesirable effects of each set of policies alone such as trade induced pollution growth and the real contractionary effects of environmental policy thus it appears that more liberal and outward oriented trade policy can coexist with more rigorous attention to environmental values the trade and environment debate has

an econometric study of co2 emissions energy consumption income and foreign trade in turkey abstract this study attempts to empirically examine the dynamic causal relationships between carbon emissions energy consumption income and foreign trade in the case of turkey using the time series data for the period 1960 2005 this research tests the interrelationship between the variables using the bounds testing to cointegration procedure the bounds test results indicate that there exist two forms of long run relationships between the variables in the case of first form of long run relationship carbon emissions are determined by energy consumption income and foreign trade in the case of second long run relationship income is determined by carbon emissions energy consumption and foreign trade an augmented form of granger causality analysis is conducted amongst the variables the long run relationship of co2 emissions energy consumption income and foreign trade equation is also checked for the parameter stability the empirical results suggest that income is the most significant variable in explaining the carbon emissions in turkey which is followed by energy consumption and foreign trade moreover there exists a stable carbon emissions function the results also provide important policy recommendations

corporate tax avoidance and firm value abstract do corporate tax avoidance activities advance shareholder interests this paper tests alternative theories of corporate tax avoidance using unexplained differences between income reported to capital markets and to tax authorities ols estimates indicate that the effect of tax avoidance on firm value is a function of firm governance as predicted by an agency perspective on corporate tax avoidance instrumental variables estimates based on exogenous changes in tax regulations yield larger overall effects and reinforce the basic result as do several robustness checks the results suggest that the simple view of corporate tax avoidance as a transfer of resources from the state to shareholders is incomplete given the agency problems characterizing shareholder manager relations

exclusion and reintegration in a social dilemma using a social dilemma game we study the cooperative behavior of individuals who reintegrate their group after being excluded by their peers we manipulate the length of exclusion and whether this length is imposed exogenously or results from a vote we show that people are willing to exclude the least cooperators and they punish more and more severely chronic defections in return a longer exclusion has a higher disciplining effect on cooperation after reintegration but only when the length of exclusion is not chosen by group members its relative disciplining effect is smaller when the length of exclusion results from a vote in this environment a quicker reintegration also limits retaliation the difference in the impact of long vs short exclusion on retaliation is larger when the length of exclusion is chosen by group members than when it is exogenous post reintegration cooperation and forgiveness depend not only on the length of exclusion but also on the perceived intentions of others when they punish

the crime reducing effect of education in this article we study the crime reducing potential of education presenting causal statistical estimates based upon a law that changed the compulsory school leaving age in england and wales we frame the analysis in a regression discontinuity setting and uncover significant decreases in property crime from reductions in the proportion of people with no educational qualifications and increases in the age of leaving school that resulted from the change in the law the findings show that improving education can yield significant social benefits and can be a key policy tool in the drive to reduce crime

an economic approach to social capital a standard optimal investment model can be used to analyse an individual s decision to accumulate social capital we analyse six facts that support the predictions of this individual based approach 1 social capital first rises and then falls with age 2 social capital declines with expected mobility 3 social capital rises in occupations with greater returns to social skills 4 social capital is higher among homeowners 5 social connections fall sharply with physical distance 6 people who invest in human capital also invest in social capital we fail to find robust evidence that social capital investments fall with the value of time or that geographic religious groups generate social capital complementarities

the effect of arrests on the employment and earnings of young men many young men commit crime and many are arrested i estimate the effect of arrests on the employment and earnings of arrestees using a large longitudinal data set constructed by merging police records with ui earnings data i find that the effects of arrests are moderate in magnitude and rather short lived

domestic policies national sovereignty and international economic institutions to what extent must nations cede control over their economic and social policies if global efe ciency is to be achieved in an interdependent world this question is at the center of the debate over the future role of the wto formerly gatt in the realm of labor and environmental standards in this paper we establish that the market access focus of current wto rules is well equipped to handle the problems associated with choices over labor and environmental standards in principle with relatively modest changes that grant governments more sovereignty not less these rules can deliver globally efe cient outcomes i introduction to what extent must nations cede control over their economic and social policies if global efe ciency is to be achieved in an interdependent world at a broad level this question probes the limits of any international economic institution whether geared toward real or e nancial concerns that is designed to promote global efe ciency while respecting national sovereignty naturally the answer depends upon the particular problem that the institution is meant to solve in other words the answer depends upon the inefe ciency that would arise under unilateral policy choices at a more specie c level this question is at the center of the debate concerning the appropriate scope of the world trade organization wto formerly gatt recently member countries have considered ways to broaden the wto s orientation beyond conventional trade policy measures to include labor and environmental standards there are now initiatives to introduce the issue of labor standards directly onto the negotiating agenda of the wto with the purpose of creating a wto social clause the social clause would specify a set of minimum international labor standards and then permit restrictions to be placed against imports from countries not complying with these minimum standards with regard to environmental policies a wto committee on trade and environment has been established to identify the relationships between trade and environmental measures and to

the wto as a mechanism for securing market access property rights implications for global labor and environmental issues can the world trade organization wto contribute to the attainment of sound labor and environmental policies an answer requires an understanding of wto rules we argue that the purpose of wto rules is to create a negotiating forum where governments can exchange secure market access commitments from this perspective we argue that supporters of sound trade labor and environmental policies can benefit from a well functioning wto because facilitating trade liberalization and preventing race to the bottom regulatory chill problems go hand in hand and each is accomplished by maintaining secure property rights over negotiated market access commitments

why firms issue targeted stock abstract we analyze market reaction to targeted stock issuances and investigate possible motives for their use we find a statistically significant abnormal return of 3 61 within a three day window around the announcement of proposed targeted stock issuances possibly attributable to greater information on targeted stock segments as well as monitoring and motivational advantages we find lower tax loss carry forwards among firms that issue targeted stock compared to those that spin off segments suggesting that tax reasons motivate targeted stock use the return and cash flows of targeted stocks are affected more by their common corporate affiliation although industry influences remain strong

using the capital market as a monitor corporate spinoffs in an agency framework a model is developed in which corporate spinoffs are a feature of incentive contracts for product managers in diversified firms i argue that the possibility of a future spinoff can improve current incentives for divisional managers even if a spinoff rarely actually occurs spinoff incentive policies exploit the fact that after a spinoff the stock value of the product line is a much cleaner signal of managerial productivity than when the division belongs to the parent firm i show that providing current incentives through such a reorganization policy can dominate standard principal agent contracts in highly diversified firms empirical implications of the model are developed regarding corporate spinoff behavior and the compensation of divisional managers

on the economic success of gatt wto dispute settlement what features of the dispute settlement process help governments live up to their trade liberalization commitments exploiting data on gatt wto trade disputes initiated and completed between 1973 and 1998 this paper identifies economic and institutional determinants that help defendant governments commit to liberalizing trade we find substantial evidence consistent with the theory that power measures including threat of retaliation by the plaintiff yield credibility to allow defendant governments to live up to their commitments we find only limited evidence however that particular procedural or institutional features beyond the basic gatt wto dispute settlement forum itself contributed to the successful economic resolution of trade disputes

search method use by unemployed youth this article presents a search model which shows that search method choices should be related to their costs and expected productivities as well as to nonwage income and wage offer distributions the empirical evidence then shows that the most frequently used search methods i e friends and relatives and direct applications without referral are also the most productive in generating offers and acceptances the number of methods used is affected by factors that presumably reflect opportunities as well as income sources and needs specific methods are chosen in a manner that generates positive average effects on outcomes for those using them

the effect of education on crime evidence from prison inmates arrests and self reports we estimate the effect of high school graduation on participation in criminal activity accounting for endogeneity of schooling we begin by analyzing the effect of high school graduation on incarceration using census data instrumental variable estimates using changes in state compulsory attendance laws as an instrument for high school graduation uncover a significant reduction in incarceration for both blacks and whites when estimating the impact of high school graduation only ols and iv estimators estimate different weighted sums of the impact of each schooling progression on the probability of incarceration we clarify the relationship between ols and iv estimates and show that the weights placed on the impact of each schooling progression can explain differences in the estimates overall the estimates suggest that completing high school reduces the probability of incarceration by about 76 percentage points for whites and 3 4 percentage points for blacks we corroborate these findings using fbi data on arrests that distinguish among different types of crimes the biggest impacts of graduation are associated with murder assault and motor vehicle theft we also examine the effect of drop out on self reported crime in the nlsy and find that our estimates for imprisonment and arrest are caused by changes in criminal behavior and not educational differences in the probability of arrest or incarceration conditional on crime we estimate that the externality of education is about 14 26 of the private return to schooling suggesting that a significant part of the social return to education comes in the form of externalities from crime reduction

security price reactions around corporate spin off announcements abstract we examine security price reactions around the announcements of 123 voluntary spin offs by 116 firms between 1963 and 1981 involving a pro rata distribution of the common stock of a subsidiary to the stockholders of the parent firm the median spin off in the sample is 6 6 of the original equity value and is associated with an abnormal return of 7 0 from 50 days prior to the announcement through completion of the spin off no evidence is found to indicate the gains to stockholders represent wealth transfers from senior securityholders over the entire event period we find positive gains for firms engaging in spin offs to facilitate mergers or to separate diverse operating units but negative returns to firms responding to legal and or regulatory difficulties in the two day interval surrounding the first press announcement we find positive average excess returns for all groups

does incarceration length affect labor market outcomes abstractthis paper studies how longer incarceration spells affect offenders labor market outcomes by using a reform that increased incarceration lengths by approximately 1 month i use detailed register data for offenders who predominantly serve incarceration spells of 1 2 months i analyze the sample for several years prior to and after incarceration and show that the reform led to an exogenous increase in incarceration lengths i find that the longer incarceration spells result in lower unemployment rates and higher earnings possibly because marginal increases in short incarceration spells improve conditions and incentives for rehabilitation while the costs of jail related to these outcomes are unaffected i show that the estimates are robust to different econometric specifications and further provide evidence that my results are not driven by changes in macroeconomic conditions

firm characteristics and analyst following abstract this paper examines the major determinants of the number of analysts following a firm a simple model of analyst following is proposed and several firm characteristics are suggested that are likely to influence the extent of a firm s analyst following by either affecting the aggregate demand for or supply of analyst services or both for the firm almost all of these characteristics are found to be strongly significant in affecting the extent of analyst following of firms and the empirical results generally accord well with economic intuition

equity carve outs and managerial discretion this study proposes a managerial discretion hypothesis of equity carve outs in which managers value control over assets and are reluctant to carve out subsidiaries thus managers undertake carve outs only when the firm is capital constrained consistent with this hypothesis firms that carve out subsidiaries exhibit poor operating performance and high leverage prior to carve outs also consistent with this hypothesis in carve outs wherein funds raised are used to pay down debt the average excess stock return of 6 63 percent is significantly greater than the average excess stock return of 0 01 percent for carve outs wherein funds are retained for investment purposes in this study we investigate the financial and operating performance of firms that undertake equity carve outs and analyze the cross section of excess stock returns around the announcement of these transactions in an equity carve out a firm offers to sell shares in a wholly owned subsidiary to the public as such a carve out can be viewed as the sale of an asset or as an equity offering schipper and smith 1986 focus on carve outs as equity offerings and compare the announcement period stock returns of carve outs with those of seasoned equity offerings in this study we view the carve out as the sale of an asset which is intended to raise funds to finance other activities of the parent or the subsidiary in viewing equity carve outs as asset sales we borrow from the work of lang poulsen and stulz 1995 who propose and test a financing hypothesis to explain the cross section of excess stock returns around announcements of asset sales the characterization of an equity carve out as a sale of assets must be tempered by the fact that certain features distinguish carveouts from outright asset sales equity carve outs are asset sales to public shareholders as opposed to a single buyer carve outs are undertaken explicitly for the purpose of raising funds in the capital market and the parent firm typically continues to hold a substantial fraction of the equity of the carved out subsidiary following the offering equity carve outs are similar to asset sales in that funds raised in the offering can be either retained within