book review feature public policy in an uncertain world by charles f manski cambridge ma harvard university press 2013 pp 224 39 95 isbn 978 0674066892

inflation and relative price variability in the euro area evidence from a panel threshold model the impact of inflation on relative price variability rpv generates an important channel for real effects of inflation this article provides first evidence on the empirical relation between inflation and rpv in the euro area stirred by the widespread use of inflation caps or target bands in monetary policy practice we are particularly interested in threshold effects of inflation in line with the predictions of monetary search models our results indicate that expected inflation significantly increases rpv only if inflation is either very low below 0 95 per annum p a or very high above 4 96 p a

asymmetric price adjustment and economic fluctuations this paper considers a possible explanation for asymmetric adjustment of nominal prices the authors present a menu cost model in which positive trend inflation causes firms relative prices to decline automatically between price adjustments in this environment shocks that raise firms desired prices trigger larger price responses than shocks that lower desired prices the authors use this model of asymmetric adjustment to address three issues in macroeconomics the effects of aggregate demand the effects of sectoral shocks and the optimal rate of inflation copyright 1994 by royal economic society

the behavior of prices and inflation an empirical analysis of disaggregat price data this paper analyzes the effects of inflation on the dispersion of prices as well as other aspects of price behavior using disaggregated data on prices of foodstuffs in israel during 1978 84 we find that the effect of expected inflation on intramarket price variability is stronger than the effect of unexpected inflation we show that even in times of high inflation price quotations are not trivially short and price changes are not synchronized across firms these facts taken together confirm that there is some staggering in the setting of prices we find that the distribution of real prices is far from being uniform as many menu cost based models assume or conclude in fact as inflation increases to very high levels this distribution is not even symmetric when the annual inflation rate reaches 130 percent there are equal chances of finding real prices above or below the market average but upward deviations in the real price are further away from zero than downward ones furthermore as the annu

land tenure price shocks and insurgency evidence from peru and colombia abstract the paper examines how property arrangements a key determinant of rural income influence armed conflict in the presence of commodity price shocks using detailed data on district level land tenure crop produce and conflict intensity in peru and colombia estimates show that exogenous negative price shocks increase the intensity of conflict in districts with a greater presence of individual ownership relative to other types of land tenure the finding is consistent with small landowners in the export sector experiencing a sharper downturn in labor market outcomes thus reducing the opportunity cost of participating in insurgent groups

is there an energy efficiency gap many analysts have argued that energy efficiency investments offer an enormous win win opportunity to both reduce negative externalities and save money this overview paper presents a simple model of investment in energy using capital stock with two types of market failures first uninternalized externalities from energy consumption and second forces such as imperfect information that cause consumers and firms not to exploit privately profitable energy efficiency investments the model clarifies that only if the second type of market failure cannot be addressed directly through mechanisms such as information provision energy efficiency subsidies and standards may be merited this chapter therefore reviews the empirical work on the magnitude of profitable unexploited energy efficiency investments a literature which frequently does not meet modern standards for credibly estimating the net present value of energy cost savings and often leaves other benefits and costs unmeasured these problems notwithstanding recent empirical work in a variety of contexts implies that on average the magnitude of profitable unexploited investment opportunities is much smaller than engineering accounting studies suggest finally there is tremendous opportunity and need for policy relevant research that utilizes randomized controlled trials and quasi experimental techniques to estimate the returns to energy efficiency investments and the welfare effects of energy efficiency programs

staggered contracts and the frequency of price adjustment this paper describes a methodology for measuring the frequency of price change in order to test the relevance of assuming prices to be set for discrete periods of time at overlapping intervals taylor 1980 has related the frequency of adjustment to the rigidity of the economy in responding to unanticipated events estimates of the frequency of price change are computed from data on the component parts of the deflator for personal consumption expenditure the results show a substantial decrease in the period between price changes during the middle 1960s and marked fluctuations in the 1970s the movements suggest changes in the rigidity associated with both changes in general price inflation and changes in the posture of the fiscal and monetary authorities

relative price variability and inflation evidence from us cities we test whether the time series positive correlation of inflation and intermarket relative price variability is also present in a cross section of u s cities we find this correlation to be a robu

evidence on the functional relationship between relative price variability and inflation with implications for monetary policy this paper considers the functional relationship between relative price variability rpv and inflation using quarterly personal consumer expenditure data in the us over 1967q1 2003q1 deriving some implications for monetary policy non parametric regression techniques are used to explore the shape of the rpv function and this shape is related to the theory outlined by rotemberg 1982 1983 the empirical rpv function yields a plausible optimal value of inflation in the region of five percentage points which is consistent with this theory and lies within the range of values cited by recent evaluations of sand and grease effects

the effect of prenatal stress on cooperation evidence from violent conflict in uganda abstract are preferences endogenously determined in the womb we play a public goods game with ugandan children born during a conflict characterised by high civilian victimisation children whose caregivers suffer from post traumatic stress disorder are more likely to free ride in the game genetic and environmental factors alone do not explain the relationship but children s 2d 4d digit ratio a marker of fetal hormone exposure associated with epigenetic effects of maternal distress does our findings extend the fetal origins literature to the domain of preferences by reducing next generation s taste for cooperation conflict may have father reaching economic consequences than previously thought

measuring the energy savings from home improvement investments evidence from monthly billing data an important factor driving energy policy over the past two decades has been the energy paradox the perception that consumers apply unreasonably high hurdle rates to energy saving investments we explore one possible explanation for this apparent puzzle that realized returns fall short of the returns promised by engineers and product manufacturers using a unique data set we find that the realized return to attic insulation is statistically significant but the median estimate 9 7 is almost identical to a discount rate for this investment implied by a capm analysis we conclude that the case for the energy paradox is weaker than has previously been believed

fairness spillovers the case of taxation abstract it is standardly assumed that individuals react to perceived unfairness or norm violations in precisely the same area or relationship where the original offense has occurred however grievances over being exposed to injustice may have even broader consequences and also spill over to other contexts causing non compliant behavior there we present evidence that such fairness spillovers can incur large economic costs a belief that there is unfairness in taxation in the sense that the rich do not pay enough taxes is associated with a twenty percent higher level of paid absenteeism from work

relative price variability inflation and the allocative efficiency of the price system abstract this paper develops a theory of the relationship between aggregate and relative price variability based on the inability of people even in a rational world to identify permanent changes in relative demands whether caused by real or by monetary variability and relative productivities as soon as they occur the theory implies that the variance of the rate of inflation and the variance of relative price change are positively related although expectations are rational and markets always clear production decisions respond sluggishly to changes in relative prices temporary shocks to relative demands cause prolonged changes in the structure of production available information is used so as to maximize the efficiency of the price system however this efficiency decreases when any of the underlying variances increases this decrease is more pronounced when the production lag is longer

the relationship between relative prices and the general price level it is very nearly a truismi amaong neoclassical economists that the public is wont to confuse changes in the general price level with relative price changes correspondingl y one might speak of the independence between the two as one of the central postulates of the neoclassical tradition william stanley jevons was aml ong the first to identify this basic dichotomin economic life as well as to attempt to explain the ordinary citizen s seenming incapacity to understand it

inflation and relative price variability new evidence for the united states this article provides new evidence on the empirical relationship between inflation and relative prices in the united states in line with the predictions of recent monetary search models we find that the impact of expected inflation on relative price variability rpv has disappeared during the recent period when inflation expectations have been stabilized on a low level endogenous break point tests are applied to identify the timing and to confirm the significance of the changing role of inflation for rpv the empirical findings are robust with respect to different price indices disaggregation levels and measurement concepts

investment crowding out firm level evidence from northern germany michalek j ciaian p and kancs d a investment crowding out firm level evidence from northern germany regional studies the main objective of this paper is to estimate the extent to which firm investment is substituted crowded out by investment support policies granted under the european union rural development programme rdp the empirical analyses employed the difference in difference propensity score matching approach which allows several important sources of bias to be addressed such as selection bias simultaneity bias and functional form misspecification from which many previous studies suffer using panel data of 1333 firms from the schleswig holstein region in germany it is found that the crowding out effect of the rdp is close to 100 implying that firms use public support to substitute for private investments furthermore no evidence was found that due to the rdp programme support firms would have brought forward their investments planned originally for a later period rejecting t

price dispersion and inflation evidence from israel the paper considers the question whether observed price differentials reflect perceived differences in quality service agreements or location or whether information imperfections can explain this phenomenon it sets out theoretical arguments linking inflation to reductions in the information stock held by agents and thus to greater price dispersion the hypothesis is tested using monthly price data for 13 uniquely defined goods sold in israel between 1971 and 1984 price dispersion is shown to be positively related to the rate of market price inflation since inflation is an unlikely proxy for changes in perceived characteristics the findings support price dispersion theories based on optimally imperfect decision making

microeconomic rigidities and aggregate price dynamics abstract this paper is an attempt to enrich the characterization of the sluggish behavior of the aggregate price level our contribution to this vast literature is to explicitly consider microeconomic heterogeneity and its interaction with nonlinear microeconomic price adjustment policies the model we propose outperforms the constant probability of adjustment partial adjustment model in describing the path of postwar u s inflation using only aggregate data we infer that the probability that a firm adjusts its price depends on the sign and the magnitude of the deviation of the price from its target level at the aggregate level we find that the aggregate price level responds less to negative shocks than to positive shocks that the size of this asymmetry increases with the size of the shock and that the number of firms changing their prices and therefore the flexibility of the price level to aggregate shocks varies endogenously over time in response to changes in economic conditions

why are prices sticky preliminary results from an interview study this paper reports preliminary results from a large research project on business pricing which is currently underway the idea is to use interviews with actual price setters to assess the validity of a dozen theories of price stickiness the rather unorthodox for economists methodology is defended the research design is described briefly and a few results based on the first 72 interviews out of a projected 200 are presented this sample suggests that the median firm changes its price annually and that price adjustments typically lag 3 4 months behind shocks to demand or cost this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

what does the bundesbank target abstract although its primary ultimate objective is price stability the bundesbank has drawn a distinction between its money focused strategy and the inflation targeting approach recently adopted by a number of central banks we show that holding constant the current forecast of inflation german monetary policy responds very little to changes in forecasted money growth we conclude that the bundesbank is much better described as an inflation targeter than as a money targeter an additional contribution of the paper is to apply the structural var methods of b bernanke and i mihov measuring monetary policy working paper no 5145 national bureau of economic research cambridge ma june 1995 to determine the optimal indicator of german monetary policy we find that the lombard rate has historically been a good policy indicator although the use of the call rate as an indicator cannot be statistically rejected

mobile phone coverage and producer markets evidence from west africa mobile phone coverage has expanded considerably throughout the developing world particularly within sub saharan africa existing evidence suggests that increased access to information technology has improved agricultural market efficiency for consumer markets and certain commodities but there is less evidence of its impact on producer markets building on the work of aker 2010 this paper estimates the impact of mobile phone coverage on producer price dispersion for three commodities in niger the results suggest that mobile phone coverage reduces spatial producer price dispersion by 6 percent for cowpea a semi perishable commodity these effects are strongest for remote markets and during certain periods of the year the introduction of mobile phone coverage has no effect on producer price dispersion for millet and sorghum two staple grains that are less perishable and are commonly stored by farmers there are no impacts of mobile phone coverage on traders gross margins or producer price levels but mobile phone coverage is associated with a reduction in the intra annual price variation for cowpea these results are potentially explained by the fact that farmers engage in greater storage for storable commodities such as millet and sorghum

relative price variability and inflation in europe the relationship between inflation and the relative variability of prices has been the subject of careful investigation in the united states using data for product groups at the city level yet in europe where the relationship could have profound effects on the viability of monetary integration no attempt has been made to study the relationship this paper fills the gap by examining data disaggregated to the commodity level across 10 eu countries evidence is found for logistic smooth transitions in the relative price variability measures within countries and within product groups when this deterministic component is removed the stochastic element is not persistent and does not always have the positive relationship with inflation commonly found in us city data

computers skills and wages computer technology is most prominently used by skilled high wage workers this suggests that computer use requires skills to take full advantage of the possibilities which are particularly present among relatively skilled workers this article develops a simple technology adoption model showing that the decision to adopt computer technology depends on i the tasks to be performed ii the level of skill or education and iii the level of wages applying this model to british data it is shown that the effect of wages and particular tasks on computer adoption is larger than the effect of skills on adoption the estimates suggest that in britain computer use is likely to be a matter of cost efficiency and not so much of workers skills

reconciling conflicting evidence on the performance of propensity score matching methods there is a long standing debate in the literature over whether social programs can be reliably evaluated without a randomized experiment this paper summarizes results from a larger paper smith and todd 2001 that uses experimental data combined with nonexperimental data to evaluate the performance of alternative nonexperimental estimators the impact estimates based on experimental data provide a benchmark against which to judge the performance of nonexperimental estimators our experimental data come from the national supported work nsw demonstration and the nonexperimental data from the current population survey cps and the panel study of income dynamics psid these same data were used in influential papers by robert lalonde 1986 james heckman and joseph hotz 1989 and rajeev dehejia and sadek wahba 1998 1999 we focus on a class of estimators called propensity score matching estimators which were introduced in the statistics literature by paul rosenbaum and donald rubin 1983 traditional propensity score matching methods pair each program participant with a single nonparticipant where pairs are chosen based on the degree of similarity in the estimated probabilities of participating in the program the propensity scores more recently developed nonparametric matching estimators described in heckman et al 1997 1998a b use weighted averages over multiple observations to construct matches we apply both kinds of estimators in this paper heckman et al 1997 1998a b evaluate the performance of matching estimators using experimental data from the u s national job training partnership act jtpa study combined with comparison group samples drawn from three sources they show that data quality is a crucial ingredient to any reliable estimation strategy specifically the estimators they examine are only found to perform well in replicating the results of the experiment when they are applied to comparison group data satisfying the following criteria i the same data sources i e the same surveys or the same type of administrative data or both are used for participants and nonparticipants so that earnings and other characteristics are measured in an analogous way ii participants and nonparticipants reside in the same local labor markets and iii the data contain a rich set of variables relevant to modeling the program participation decision if the comparison group data fails to satisfy these criteria the performance of the estimators diminishes greatly more recently dehejia and wahba 1998 1999 have used the nsw data also used by lalonde to evaluate the performance of propensity score matching methods including pairwise matching and caliper matching they find that these simple matching estimators succeed in closely replicating the experimental nsw results even though the comparison group data do not satisfy any of the criteria found to be important in heckman et al 1997 1998a from this evidence they conclude that matching approaches are generally more reliable than traditional econometric estimators in this paper we reanalyze the nsw data in an attempt to reconcile the conflicting findings smith department of economics university of western ontario social science centre london on n6a 5c2 canada and nber todd department of economics university of pennsylvania 3718 locust walk philadelphia pa 19104 and nber versions of the paper that is the source for this paper have been presented at a 2000 meeting of the institute for research on poverty in madison wisconsin at the western research network on employment and training summer workshop august 2000 at the canadian international labour network meetings september 2000 and at the university of north carolina we thank james heckman for comments on this paper and we thank robert lalonde for comments and for providing us with the data from his 1986 study we thank rajeev dehejia for providing us with information helpful in reconstructing the samples used in the dehejia and wahba 1998 1999 studies jingjing hsee and miana plesca provided excellent research assistance

the wto trade effect this paper reexamines the gatt wto membership efiect on bilateral trade ows using nonparametric methods including pair matching permutation tests and a rosenbaum 2002 sensitivity analysis together these methods provide an estimation framework that is robust to misspeciflcation biases allows general forms of heterogeneous treatment efiects and addresses potential hidden selection biases this is in contrast to most conventional parametric studies on this issue our results suggest large gatt wto trade promoting efiects robust to various restricted matching criteria alternative indicators for gatt wto involvement different matching methodologies non random incidence of positive trade ows and inclusion of multilateral resistance terms

heterogeneous sports participation and labour market outcomes in england based on a unique composite dataset measuring heterogeneous sports participation labour market outcomes and local facilities provision this article examines for the first time the association between different types of sports participation and employment and earnings in england clear associations between labour market outcomes and sports participation are established through matching estimation while controlling for some important confounding factors the results which are supplemented and supported by a formal sensitivity analysis suggest a link between different types of sports participation to initial access to employment and then higher income opportunities with ageing however these vary between the genders and across sports specifically the results suggest that team sports contribute most to employability but that this varies by age across genders and that outdoor activities contribute most towards higher incomes

inflation price dispersion and market integration through the lens of a monetary search model monetary search theory implies that the real effects of inflation via its impact on price dispersion depend on the level of search costs and thus on the level of market integration for less integrated markets the inflation price dispersion nexus is predicted to be asymmetrically v shaped which results in an optimal inflation rate above zero for highly integrated markets with low search costs however the impact of inflation on price dispersion should only be small using price data of the european union member states this paper is the first that tests and confirms these predictions of monetary search theory

evaluating the econometric evaluations of training programs with experimental data this paper takes the results of an employment and training program thatwas run as a field experiment in which the participants were randomlyassigned into a treatment or a control group and compares these results to the estimates that might have been produced by an econometrician who evaluated the program using the same econometric procedures that have been used in the program evaluation literature this comparison shows that many of these econometric procedures fail toreplicate the experimentally determined results and suggests that researchers should be aware of the potential for specification errorsin other nonexperimental evaluations copyright 1986 by american economic association

motivating non ratepaying households with feedback and social nudges a cautionary tale abstract behavioral interventions have been shown to be valuable instruments in reducing energy use among ratepaying customers but their effect on non ratepayers has received less attention this study uses a randomized controlled trial research design to examine the effect of feedback and a social nudge in the form of peer comparison on energy consumption of non ratepaying households the study setting is a university family housing complex and findings are based on hourly observations of energy use by 62 households over thirteen weeks our results suggest that neither feedback or peer comparison is an effective instrument to reduce energy use of non ratepaying households and may even increase energy consumption in some contexts we find heterogeneous effects among households that are low and high users of energy in the pre treatment period with high users increasing energy consumption in response to feedback thus caution is needed in applying behavioral interventions when financial incentives to reinforce intended effects are absent

sticky prices new evidence from retail catalogs this paper presents new results on the size frequency and synchronization of price changes for twelve selected retail goods over the past 35 years three basic facts about the data are uncovered first nominal prices are typically fixed for more than one year although the time between changes is very irregular second prices change more often during periods of high overall inflation third when prices do change the sizes of the changes are widely dispersed both large and small changes occur for the same item and the sizes of these changes do not closely depend on overall inflation

privatization and changes in welfare costs of inflation the case of entel argentina abstract in a country with permanent deficit driven inflation problems the proceeds from privatization may translate into potential reductions of the seigniorage needed to finance a given a level of government expenditure the changes in welfare costs of inflation brought about by divestiture are quantified in a monetary model in an argentine case study these changes were found to be small both in terms of gdp and as a percentage of seigniorage revenue within the model this is mainly explained by the low values encountered for the elasticities of money demand with respect to expected inflation and by the exclusion of considerations about unanticipated inflation

the countervailing effects of competition on public goods provision when bargaining inefficiencies lead to bad outcomes political competition is widely recognized as a mediator of public goods provision through its salutary effect on incumbents electoral incentives we argue that political competition additionally mediates public goods provision by reducing the efficiency of legislative bargaining these countervailing forces may produce a net negative effect in places with weak parties and low transparency typical of many young democracies we provide evidence of a robust negative relationship between political competition and local public goods using panel data from mali tests of mechanisms corroborate our interpretation of this relationship as evidence of legislative bargaining inefficiencies to explore the generalizability of these findings we analyze cross country panel data and show that political competition leads to better worse public goods provision under high low levels of party system institutionalization the paper sheds light on why political competition is only selectively beneficial and underscores the importance of considering both the electoral and legislative arenas

disaster aid and preferences the long run impact of the tsunami on giving in sri lanka summary do natural disasters produce effects on preferences of victims in the long run we test the impact of the tsunami shock on generosity of a sample of sri lankan affected unaffected microfinance borrowers seven years after the event specifically we test the effect of the shock at the extensive margin by comparing damaged with non damaged individuals in terms of giving and expected giving in a dictator game moreover at the intensive margin we compare the participants based on the amount of damage experienced and recovery aid received the advantage of this last comparison is that differences in observables between the groups are minimized we reduce further identification problems by selecting a random sample of damaged and non damaged borrowers belonging to the same microfinance organization who are therefore likely to share some important common traits that are usually unobservable to researchers we complete our identification strategy with weighted least squares instrumental variable estimates and a sensitivity analysis on the exogeneity assumption the main findings of the paper support the hypothesis that the shock affects participants preferences in the long run first the tsunami negatively affects generosity at the extensive margin as those who suffered at least one damage give and expect less than those who did not second while large recovery assistance does not directly affect giving and expected giving it increases especially the latter indirectly i e when interacted with the number of damages our results reconcile that part of the literature showing evidence of natural shocks having a detrimental effect on social preferences fleming chong alberto bejarano 2011 cassar grosjean whitt 2013 with that supporting instead a positive link solnit 2009 whitt wilson 2007 cassar healy von kessler 2011 furthermore since our study focuses on the long run impact of a natural disaster previous results on short run effects are not necessarily inconsistent with ours

durable goods and residential demand for energy and water evidence from a field trial this article describes a household production model in which energy efficient durable goods cost less to operate so households may use them more the model is estimated using household level data from a field trial in which participants received high efficiency clothes washers free of charge the estimation strategy exploits this quasi random replacement of washers to derive precise estimates of the household production technology and a demand function for clothes washing during the field trial households increased clothes washing on average by 5 6 after receiving a high efficiency washer implying a price elasticity of 06 the complete model is used to evaluate the cost effectiveness of recent changes in minimum efficiency standards for clothes washers

sensitivity to exogeneity assumptions in program evaluation in many empirical studies of the effect of social programs researchers assume that conditional on a set of observed covariates assignment to the treatment is exogenous or unconfounded aka selection on observables often this assumption is not realistic and researchers are concerned about the robustness of their results to departures from it one approach e g charles manski 1990 is to entirely drop the exogeneity assumption and investigate what can be learned about treatment effects without it with unbounded outcomes and in the absence of alternative identifying assumptions there are no restrictions on the set of possible values for average treatment effects this does not mean however that all evaluations are equally sensitive to departures from the exogeneity assumption in this paper i explore an alternative approach developed by paul rosenbaum and donald rubin 1983 where the assumption of exogeneity is explicitly relaxed by allowing for a limited amount of correlation between treatment and unobserved components of the outcomes the starting point of the sensitivity analysis is the assumption that the exogeneity assumption is satisfied only conditional on an additional unobserved covariate making assumptions about the effect of the unobserved covariate on the outcome and its correlation with the treatment i trace out the set of possible values for the treatment effect of interest by considering a sufficiently large set of possible correlations with outcomes and treatment one can recover the bounds on the treatment effect derived by manski 1990 the approach here in the spirit of rosenbaum and rubin 1983 and rosenbaum 1995 is to allow only a limited amount of correlation and to judge the sensitivity of average treatment effect estimates to such correlations there are two novel features of the proposed analysis first rather than formulate the sensitivity in terms of coefficients on the unobserved covariate the sensitivity results are presented in terms of partial r values which may be easier to interpret second the partial r values of the unobserved covariates are compared to those for the observed covariates in order to facilitate judgments regarding the plausibility of values necessary to substantially change results obtained under exogeneity the proposed sensitivity analysis is conceptually related to the practice of assessing sensitivity of estimates by comparisons with results obtained by discarding one or more observed covariates james heckman and v joseph hotz 1989 rajeev dehejia and sadek wahba 1999 jeffrey smith and petra todd 2001 the attraction of the sensitivity analysis is that it is more directly relevant one is not interested in what would have happened in the absence of covariates actually observed but in biases that are the result from not observing all relevant covariates

relative prices and inflation new evidence from different inflationary contexts this paper analyses the relationship between inflation and relative price variability in the direction of the latter in two countries with very different inflationary experiences argentina and spain to address this objective using disaggregated price indexes the wholesale price index for argentina and the consumer price index for spain we delimitate different inflationary regimes and compute a set of regressions for each country our results suggest evidence in favour of the non neutrality of inflation mostly in hyperinflation periods and do not support either the menu costs or the signal extraction approaches we also detect significant structural changes in the relationship depending on the inflationary regime

price effects of energy efficient technologies a study of residential demand for heating and cooling energy efficient appliances reduce the marginal price of the services they deliver this article shows empirically that such price reductions result in energy savings that are smaller than those engineering techniques generally project using econometric techniques with data from a unique utility experiment and a detailed engineering thermal load model we find that actual conservation is as much as 13 below engineering estimates for cooling and 8 12 below for heating customers who conserve electricity are also persistent their houses are comparatively warmer in summer and cooler in winter

the incidence of visible underemployment evidence for trinidad and tobago this article presents an empirical analysis of the incidence of visible underemployment in trinidad and tobago visible underemployment consists of workers who work less than the normal duration of working hours but are willing and available to work more we find that compared to other groups of the labour force the visibly underemployed tend to be less educated and are more likely to work in the private sector we also find that their revealed behaviour is consistent with their desire for more hours only about 50 per cent of the visibly underemployed are able to find full time employment within three months and little except firm size helps predict who will

an investigation of renewable and non renewable energy consumption and economic growth nexus using industrial and residential energy consumption abstract our study shows that links between economic growth and energy consumption both expressed in per capita terms differed for renewables and non renewables for income panels over the period 1971 to 2011 renewables are mainly found to support the neutrality hypothesis only renewable totals in low and lower middle income llmi countries are found to drive economic growth the feedback growth and conservative hypotheses strongly feature with non renewables total and industrial our results are derived by linking different definitions of energy consumption with economic growth for 89 countries divided into llmi upper middle income umi and high income hi panels

haircuts or hysteresis sources of movements in real exchange rates abstract we empirically assess the importance of two sources of real exchange rate movements in models where ppp holds only among traded goods real exchange rate variation results from relative price movements within countries an alternative explanation relies on hysteretic price setting and nominal exchange rate changes using disaggregated price data from 11 oecd nations we find some support for the non traded goods models for example prices of haircuts in canada and the united states are unrelated in the long run we find stronger evidence to support models that emphasize sticky prices transportation costs or other impediments to frictionless trade

measuring cpi s reliability the stochastic approach to index numbers revisited the reliability measurement of the consumer price index cpi has recently drawn much attention as the index number has been criticized for its inaccuracy in accessing the degree of inflation this article centers on providing a new regression specification that can help better gauge the cpi s reliability more specifically based on the stochastic approach to index numbers we argue that the conventional treatment of the systematic changes in relative prices should be made time variant we therefore propose a more comprehensive regression specification by including additional dummies that represent different general inflation rate levels and business cycle phases under this framework we are more capable of avoiding possible misspecifications in the regression equation as was experienced by clements and izan 1987 it also allows us to better answer the keynes critic regarding the stochastic approach to index numbers the empirical results of australia and the us are used to validate the merit of

inflation and relative price variability in the short and long run new evidence from the united states this paper presents new evidence that a positive association exists between inflation and relative prices and relative inflation rates in very disaggregated data for the united states over the period 1975 through 1992 there is also evidence that the response of relative prices and relative inflation rates to inflation varies inversely with the information content of a given shock to inflation the relationship is studied from two cross sectional perspectives using individual price series collected from forty eight u s cities evidence on the persistence of the effects of inflation on relative prices is also presented results here demonstrate the absence of a long run relationship between inflation and relative price dispersion i e the two series are not cointegrated finally results from vector autoregressions further imply the effect is smaller than indicated by typical estimates copyright 1996 by ohio state university press

financial asset holdings and political attitudes evidence from revolutionary england the english parliament s struggle for supremacy against monarchical dictatorship during the civil war 1642 1648 was crucial for the establishment of representative government yet its lessons continue to be debated i exploit novel data on individual mps drawn from 1 842 biographies to show that the conflict was over overseas interests and other factors over which the executive enjoyed broad constitutional discretion rather than over domestic property rights i further exploit the coincidence of individual mps ability to sign legally binding share contracts with novel share offerings by overseas companies to measure the effect of overseas share investment on their political attitudes i show that overseas shareholding pushed moderates lacking prior mercantile interests to support reform i interpret the effect of financial assetholding as allowing new investors to exploit emerging economic opportunities overseas aligning their interests with traders by consolidating a broad parliamentary majority that favored reform the introduction of financial assets also broadened support for the institutionalization of parliamentary supremacy over dictatorial rule jel codes o10 g11 f10 k00 n23 p10

returns to residential energy efficiency and conservation measures a field experiment abstract residential energy conservation is a key component of contemporary energy and climate change policy in the us and elsewhere comparisons of the relative effectiveness of measures aimed at reducing residential energy consumption are made challenging however by the endogeneity of technology and energy use decisions in this paper we describe a novel small scale field experiment that uses randomized treatments to estimate the returns to three types of energy conservation measures in institutionally owned homes the results from the experiment indicate considerable reductions in natural gas consumption associated with the installation of attic insulation and the provision of incentives for conservation the results are supported by observations of ambient indoor temperature data which show that households receiving incentives significantly reduce their temperature settings especially when coupled with access to a programmable thermostat the study will ideally provide guidance for institutions and communities considering energy efficiency measures and for future researchers designing randomized experiments to study residential energy use

can risk averse households make risky investments the role of trust in others in this paper using data from the survey on health ageing and retirement in europe share 2006 and 2013 waves we illustrate the link between individuals attitudes to financial risk combined with their willingness to trust others and their investments in risky assets individuals who display either risk tolerance alone or to a lesser extent risk aversion and trust more frequently decide to buy risky assets the comparison between scandinavian and mediterranean countries indicates that trust plays qualitatively different roles depending on the prevailing combination of risk attitude and trust in the area being studied

search price setting and inflation a model of monopolistic competition in an inflationary environment is developed which embodies optimal sequential search price dynamics and entry on the part of consumers and firms respectively equilibrium price strategies are s s these bounds increase continuously with consumer search costs and so does price dispersion indeed the whole equilibrium varies smoothly from the competitive bertrand to the monopolistic diamond 1971 end of the spectrum the latter s paradoxical result is explained as a limiting case where frictions on firms side of the market price adjustment costs but not on buyers search costs tend to zero a positive relationship between smooth and perfectly anticipated inflation and price dispersion or uncertainty is established

are they efficient in the middle using propensity score estimation for modeling middlemen in indian corporate corruption corrupt regulatory environment encourages firms to deploy middlemen for speedy and assured acquisition of different services from regulatory agencies using a world bank dataset of 2210 indian manufacturing firms this article examines how firms with middlemen deal with corrupt governmental agencies for its operational efficiency our results demonstrate that deployment of middlemen by the firms is often accompanied by a substantial increase in operational delay relatively trigger more consumption of senior management s time on regulatory disentanglement enhance the likelihood tendency to pay bribe and likely to face more court cases as a means of restitution of legal rights as firm specific attributes may contaminate our preliminary results we utilized the propensity score framework to examine relationships among variables of interests our study contributes to the inconspicuous part of the corruption literature by attempting to present a comprehensive but indirect assessment of the functions of middlemen that predominantly remained unattended except some scattered descriptive case based anecdotal presentations

the rigidity of prices this paper uses evidence on individual transaction prices to analyze price behavior the evidence shows that for many transactions pricesremain rigid for periods exceeding one year the rigidity of price ispositively correlated with industry concentration for several productsthe correlation of price changes across buyers is low the paper alsoinvestigates the relationship between price rigidity price change andthe length of time a buyer and seller have been doing business together the author interprets the evidence as emphasizing the importance of nonprice rationing and the inadequacy of models in whichprice movements alone clear markets copyright 1986 by american economic association

on the stubbornness of sticky prices this paper presents a simple menu cost example in which there is a clear distinction between price stickiness and downward rigidity of prices while price stickiness may or may not exist in menu cost models downward rigidity shows up whenever there is a reduction of the expected rate of inflation this reduction changes the optimal target and threshold for each firm for some it also implies an immediate increase of their own price this upward jump of prices in case of a disinflationary attempt is interpreted as downward rigidity since there are no symmetric forces when expected inflation increases copyright 1991 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

localized knowledge spillovers and patent citations a distance based approach abstract we develop a new distance based test of localized knowledge spillovers that embeds the concept of control patents using microgeographic data we identify localization distance for each te

transactions costs and nonlinear adjustment in real exchange rates an empirical investigation eolquilibrium models of real exchange rate determination in the presence of transactions costs imply a nonlinear adjustment process toward purchasing power parity ppp conventional cointegration tests which ignore the effect of transactions costs may be biased against the long run ppp hypothesis our results using both monthly data for the interwar period and annual data spanning two centuries clearly reject the linear framework in favor of an exponential smooth transition autoregressive process the systematic pattern in the estimates of the nonlinear models provides strong evidence of mean reverting behavior for ppp deviations and helps explain the mixed results of previous studies

inflation and relative price variability abstract theoretical explanations of the inflation relative price variability relationship are often observationally equivalent this paper compares two theoretical models menu costs and imperfect information the microfoundations of the models are used to generate new testable differences between the theories

the energy efficiency gap what does it mean abstract as renewed attention has been given by policy makers to energy conservation issues it has frequently been asserted that an energy efficiency gap exists between actual and optimal energy use the critical questions is how to define the optimal level of energy efficiency this paper seeks to disentangle some confusing strands of argument that are frequently brought to bear on this question by identifying the major conceptual issues that determine the set of feasible answers we identify five separate and distinct notions of optimality the economists economic potential the technologists economic potential hypothetical potential the narrow social optimum and the true social optimum each of these has associated with it a corresponding definition of the energy efficiency gap our analysis demonstrates that necessary preconditions for identifying the right measure of the energy efficiency gap include understanding and disentangling market failure and non market failure explanations for the gradual diffusion of energy efficient technologies

nonparametric bounds on treatment effects assume that each member of a population is characterized by values for the variables ya yb z x here x is a vector describing a person and z is a binary variable indicating which of two treatments this person receives the treatments are labelled a and b the variables ya and yb are scalar measures of the outcomes of the two treatments for example a cancer patient might be treated by a drug therapy or b surgery the relevant outcome y might be life span following treatment an unemployed worker might be given a vocational training or b job search assistance here the relevant outcome might be labor force status following treatment assume that a random sample is drawn and that one observes the realizations of z x and of the outcome under the treatment received thus ya is observed if treatment a is received but is a latent variable if treatment b is received similarly yb is either observed or latent suppose that one wants to learn the difference in expected outcome if all persons with attributes x were assigned to treatment a or b this treatment effect is

energy conservation nudges and environmentalist ideology evidence from a randomized residential electricity field experiment nudges are being widely promoted to encourage energy conservation we show that while the electricity conservation nudge of providing feedback to households on own and peers home electricity usage works with liberals it can backfire with conservatives our regression estimates predict that a democratic household that pays for electricity from renewable sources that donates to environmental groups and that lives in a liberal neighborhood reduces its consumption by 3 percent in response to this nudge a republican household that does not pay for electricity from renewable sources and that does not donate to environmental groups increases its consumption by 1 percent

informal care and long term labor market outcomes in this paper we estimate long run effects of informal care provision on female caregivers labor market outcomes up to eight years after care provision we compare a static version where average effects of care provision in a certain year on later labor market outcomes are estimated to a partly dynamic version where the effects of up to three consecutive years of care provision are analyzed our results suggest that there are significant initial negative effects of informal care provision on the probability to work full time the reduction in the probability to work full time by 4 percentage points or 2 4 5 0 if we move from point to partial identification is persistent over time short run effects on hourly wages are zero but we find considerable long run wage penalties

using experiments to evaluate performance standards what do welfare to work demonstrations reveal to welfare reformers this paper examines how experimental demonstrations can be used to inform planners about the efficacy of social programs in light of a performance standard the problem is illustrated by considering the situation faced by state governments attempting to design programs to meet the new federal welfare to work standards data from experimental evaluations alone allow only limited inferences about the labor market outcomes of welfare recipients combined with prior information on the selection process however these data are informative suggesting either that the long run federal requirements cannot be met or that these standards will only be met under special circumstances

the impacts of energy efficiency policies meta analysis abstract this paper attempts to quantitatively summarize the existing empirical evidence on the effects of energy efficiency policies on energy demand and on the price of associated durable goods as well as to identify the main factors that systematically affect the estimated impacts to this end a meta regression analysis of the effects of energy efficiency policies is carried out on the basis of an extensive review of the existing literature selecting those studies that analyze the impact of energy efficiency policies with respect to a business as usual setting taking into account the econometric problems associated with this type of analysis intra class correlation cross sectional dependence publication bias in pursuit of robust outcomes the results show that the studies analyzing the effects of energy efficiency policies estimate a significant impact of these policies on energy demand 10 5 8 8 and the price of related durable goods 7 9 6 the main factors that influence results are the policy instrument the targeted sector the type of country the analyzed period the consideration of free riders and the type of analysis data and publication energy demand and the sector and analyzed period price of durables

the consequences of child soldiering abstract little is known about the impacts of military service on human capital and labor market outcomes due to an absence of data as well as sample selection recruits are self selected screened and selectively survive we examine the case of uganda where rebel recruitment methods provide exogenous variation in conscription economic and educational impacts are widespread and persistent schooling falls by nearly a year skilled employment halves and earnings drop by a third military service seems to be a poor substitute for schooling psychological distress is evident among those exposed to severe war violence and is not limited to ex combatants

private or public school advantage evidence from 40 countries using pisa 2012 mathematics abstractit is known that in most countries private school students outperform students in public schools in international assessments however the empirical literature recognizes that assessing the true effect of private school attendance requires addressing selection and sorting issues on both observabland unobservables the existing empirical evidence on the private school effect mostly covers oecd and latin american countries with little evidence on other parts of the world there is recent emerging country specific evidence doubting the existence of a private school advantage i use pisa 2012 data for mathematics and two different methodologies to derive baseline and bias corrected estimates of the private dependent and independent school effect for 40 countries a robust private school advantage is found only in a handful of countries public schools generally perform as well as private subsidized schools and outperform independent schools accounting for both peer effects and selection is necessa