gender inequality and economic development fertility education and norms we document the evolution of gender inequality in labour market outcomes earnings labour supply and wage rates over the path of economic development and present evidence on the potential reasons for this evolution to this end we have created a micro database that compiles 248 surveys from 53 countries between 1967 and 2014 covering a wide range of per capita income levels there is large convergence in the earnings of men and women over the path of development driven by female labour force participation and wage rates we argue that the single most important factor behind this convergence is demographic transition the effects of children on gender gaps child penalties are large at both low and high levels of development but fertility declines drastically over the growth process and thus reduces the aggregate implications of children we also document gender convergence in educational attainment and consider its effects on earnings inequality arguing that these are significant but less dramatic than the effects of fertility finally we document striking changes in the values or norms surrounding the role of women with children implying that such changes could serve as a reinforcing mechanism for gender convergence

commodity price shocks and civil conflict evidence from colombia how do income shocks aect armed con ict theory suggests two op posite eects if labor is used to appropriate resources violently higher wages may lower con ict by reducing labor supplied to appropriation this is the opportunity cost eect alternatively a rise in contestable income may increase violence by raising gains from appropriation this is the rapacity eect our paper exploits exogenous price shocks in inter national commodity markets and a rich dataset on civil war in colombia to assess how dierent income shocks aect con ict we examine changes in the price of agricultural goods which are labor intensive and natural resources which are capital intensive we focus on coee and oil the two largest exports we nd that a sharp fall in coee prices in the 1990s increased violence dierentially in regions growing more coee by lower ing wages and the opportunity cost of joining armed groups in contrast a rise in oil prices increased violence dierentially in the oil region by in creasing municipal revenue siphoned through rapacity this pattern holds in several other agricultural and natural resource sectors providing robust evidence that price shocks aect con ict in opposite directions depending on the factor intensity of the commodity

do female gender role attitudes affect labour market participation in egypt abstractwe analyse the inter generational relationship of attitudes towards gender roles and their impact on individuals labour market participations in egypt we find a strong correlation between mothers and daughters perceptions of gender roles unlike the existing literature perceptions are not associated with the labour market status even if we control for endogeneity issues using an instrumental variable regression furthermore higher educated females are more likely to be unemployed in egypt these results imply that perceptions among females are not translated into their labour market behaviour and the supply side policies alone may not be sufficient for improving young women s employment opportunities

the gender gap fertility and growth changes in fertility have long been recognized as important correlates of economic growth with the relationship between the level of fertility and the level of income per capita being one of the strongest observable correlations in cross country data this paper examines the linkages between fertility and growth theory the structure of the model is presented in sections on production couples decision making system dynamics and steady state equilibria the first component of the model is that increases in capital per worker raise womens relative wages since capital is more complementary to womens labor input than to mens the second component is that increasing womens relative wages reduces fertility by raising the cost of children more than household income finally lower fertility raises the level of capital per worker a positive feedback loop generates demographic transition a rapid decline in fertility accompanied by accelerated output growth

internal cocaine trafficking and armed violence in colombia this paper exploits time variations in international cocaine prices and potential trafficking routes within colombia to estimate the effect of the illegal cocaine trade on changes in municipality homicide rates i construct the potential internal cocaine trafficking network and exploit the fact that different regions in colombia have comparative advantages in serving different international markets my results suggest that when cocaine prices increase in either the united states or europe homicide rates increase in municipalities strategically placed to serve each international market jel d74 k42 f19

the welfare cost of lawlessness evidence from somali piracy in spite of general agreement that establishing the rule of law is central to properly functioning economies little is known about the cost of law and order breakdowns this paper studies a specific context of this by estimating the effect of somali piracy attacks on shipping costs using data on shipping contracts in the dry bulk market to estimate the effect of piracy we look at shipping routes whose shortest path exposes them to piracy and find that the increase in attacks in 2008 led to around an 8 to 12 increase in costs from this we calculate the welfare loss imposed by piracy we estimate that generating around 120 usd million of revenue for somali pirates led to a welfare loss in excess of 630 usd million making piracy an expensive way of making transfers

this mine is mine how minerals fuel conflicts in africa we combine georeferenced data on mining extraction of 14 minerals with information on conflict events at spatial resolution of 0 5 degree x 0 5 degree for all of africa between 1997 and 2010 exploiting exogenous variations in world prices we find a positive impact of mining on conflict at the local level quantitatively our estimates suggest that the historical rise in mineral prices commodity super cycle might explain up to one fourth of the average level of violence across african countries over the period we then document how a fighting group s control of a mining area contributes to escalation from local to global violence finally we analyze the impact of corporate practices and transparency initiatives in the mining industry

misperceived social norms women working outside the home in saudi arabia we show that the vast majority of young married men in saudi arabia privately support women working outside the home wwoh and substantially underestimate support by other similar men correcting these beliefs increases men s costly willingness to help their wives search for jobs months later wives of men whose beliefs were corrected are more likely to have applied and interviewed for a job outside the home in a recruitment experiment with a local company randomly informing women about actual support for wwoh leads them to switch from an at home temporary enumerator job to a higher paying outside the home version of the job

do giant oilfield discoveries fuel internal armed conflicts we use new data to examine the effects of giant oilfield discoveries around the world since 1946 on average these discoveries increase per capita oil production and oil exports by up to 50 percent but these giant oilfield discoveries also have a dark side they increase the incidence of internal armed conflict by about 5 8 percentage points this increased incidence of conflict due to giant oilfield discoveries is especially high for countries that had already experienced armed conflicts or coups in the decade prior to discovery

the cost of fear the welfare effect of the risk of violence in northern uganda although the effects of insecurity are believed to be important these have never been directly measured previous estimates of the costs of conflict have only captured the joint effect of violence and insecurity the distinction is important for understanding the origins of the costs and for policy design spatially disaggregated measures of insecurity are created based on the spatial temporal variation in the placement of violence these are used to generate the first estimates of the relative causal contributions of the risk and experience of violence the article also provides the first micro data based counterpart to the cross country literature on the costs of conflict

victory or repudiation predicting winners in civil wars using international financial markets we develop a method to estimate which side will win a civil war using data from international financial markets the key insight we deliver is that for typical sovereign debt contracts the probability of debt repayment will equal the probability of victory in a civil war we test our predictor for standard outcomes in civil wars including when the incumbent government loses the chinese nationalists when a new government is installed by a foreign power and decides to repudiate debt the restoration of ferdinand vii of spain and when there is a secession the u s confederacy for china markets were predicting a communist victory three years before it happened for the u s markets never gave the south much more than a 40 percent chance of maintaining the confederacy for spain markets considered the restoration of ferdinand vii as likely probabilities above 50 as soon as france declared its intention to send military forces to the area

tough love and intergenerational altruism tough love and intergenerational altruism this article develops and studies a tough love model of intergenerational altruism we model tough love by modifying the barro becker standard altruism model in two ways first the child s discount factor is endogenously determined so lower childhood consumption leads to a higher discount factor later in life second the parent evaluates the child s lifetime utility with a constant high discount factor our model predicts that parental transfers will fall when the child s discount factor falls this is in contrast with the standard altruism model which predicts that parental transfers are independent of exogenous changes in the child s discount factor

estimating the peace dividend the impact of violence on house prices in northern ireland this article exploits data on the pattern of violence across regions and over time to estimate the impact of the peace process in northern ireland on house prices after establishing a negative correlation between killings and house prices we estimate the parameters of a markov switching model with conflict and peace as latent states we use the model to estimate the size of the peace dividend as captured in house price changes jel d74 r23 r31 conflict in ireland has a long history even after the republic of ireland was created as an independent state in 1920 the status of the mainly protestant north remained contested from the late 1960s a violent conflict flared up which claimed around 3 500 lives only more than two decades later from 1993 onwards emerged a peace process which while initially fragile culminated in a cessation of violence and a return to devolved government by 2007 the conflict was a major source of social and economic dislocation but as peace took hold this has begun to be repaired this paper assesses the impact of peace by using variation in violence within northern ireland to study one important economic aspect of the peace process and the dividend that it brought to residents of northern ireland the impact on house prices houses are assets whose prices reflect the present and future expected attrac tiveness of living in an area even during the height of the conflict in northern ireland violence was not uniform for example belfast the capital city of the province of northern ireland was particularly hard hit looking for economic consequences of the peace process we would therefore expect benefits to be concentrated among areas where violence was most prevalent we exploit within region variability in violence and house prices over time having such variation is rare in studies of the economic consequences of conflict our specific measure of violence is conflict related deaths these have been well documented by sutton 1994 and the conflict archive on the

from mill town to board room the rise of women s paid labor the widespread participation of women in paid labor outside of the home and in the highest echelons of society would have been unheard of a century ago this paper documents this dramatic change in women s social and economic status and argues that it was determined both by contemporaneous demand factors and by the characteristics expectations and social norms regarding work and family of different cohorts of women history suggests that change in women s labor force experiences may be slow because it must await the entry of new cohorts of women and also of men into the labor market

coups corporations and classified information we estimate the impact of coups and top secret coup authorizations on asset prices of partially nationalized multinational companies that stood to benefit from u s backed coups stock returns of highly exposed firms reacted to coup authorizations classified as top secret the average cumulative abnormal return to a coup authorization was 9 over 4 days for a fully nationalized company rising to more than 13 over 16 days precoup authorizations accounted for a larger share of stock price increases than the actual coup events themselves there is no effect in the case of the widely publicized poorly executed cuban operations consistent with abnormal returns to coup authorizations reflecting credible private information we also introduce two new intuitive and easy to implement nonparametric tests that do not rely on asymptotic justifications

the market work behavior and wages of women 1975 94 changes in the labor market participation and wages of women in the united states are analyzed over the period 1975 1994 using data from the current population survey women are organized into nine birth cohorts five schooling groups and each year of age from 25 to 60 years and their weekly and annual work hours their annual work weeks their employment population ratio and their real average hourly earnings tabulated schooling differences in work behavior have become wider in recent cohorts as have their wages the relationship between work and wages is estimated for women of different ages cohorts and marital status the gap between the work of unmarried and married women has narrowed and the role of wages both the wages of women and those of husbands is examined to determine the extent to which changes in wages account for these movements excerpt

engines of liberation electricity was born at the dawn of the last century households were inundated with a flood of new consumer durables what was the impact of this consumer durable goods revolution it is argued here that the consumer goods revolution was conducive to liberating women from the home to analyse this hypothesis a beckerian model of household production is developed households must decide whether or not to adopt the new technologies and whether a married woman should work can such a model help to explain the rise in married female labour force participation that occurred in the last century yes the housewife of the future will be neither a slave to servants nor herself a drudge she will give less attention to the home because the home will need less she will be rather a domestic engineer than a domestic labourer with the greatest of all handmaidens electricity at her service this and other mechanical forces will so revolutionize the woman s world that a large portion of the aggregate of woman s energy will be conserved for use in broader more constructive fields thomas alva edison as interviewed in good housekeeping magazine lv no 4 october 1912 p 436

schooling violent conflict and gender in burundi this paper investigates the effect of exposure to violent conflict on human capital accumulation in burundi it combines a nationwide household survey with secondary sources on the location and timing of the conflict only 20 percent of the birth cohorts studied 1971 1986 completed primary education depending on the specification the probability of completing primary schooling for a boy exposed to violent conflict declines by 7 to 17 percentage points compared to a nonexposed boy with a decline of 11 percentage points in the preferred specification in addition exposure to violent conflict reduces the gender gap in schooling but only for girls from nonpoor households forced displacement is one of the channels through which conflict affects schooling the results are robust to various specifications and estimation methods

measuring economic insecurity we provide a systematic treatment of the notion of economic insecurity assuming that an individual s sentiment of insecurity depends on the current wealth level and its variations experienced in the past we think of wealth as a comprehensive variable encompassing anything that may help in coping with adverse occurrences the current wealth level could also be interpreted as incorporating the individual s evaluation of future prospects variations in wealth experienced in the recent past are given higher weight than experiences that occurred in the more distant past two classes of measures are characterized with sets of plausible and intuitive axioms

unequal laws and the disempowerment of women in the labor market evidence from firm level data institutions are defined as the set of rules that govern human interactions when these rules are discriminatory they may disempower segments of a population in the economic spheres of activity this study explores whether laws that discriminate against women influence their engagement in the economy the study adopts a holistic approach exploring an overall measure of unequal laws also known as legal gender disparities and relates it to several labor market outcomes for women using data for more than 60 000 firms across 104 economies the study finds that unequal laws not only discourage women s participation in the private sector workforce but also their likelihood to become top managers and owners of firms suggestive evidence indicates that access to finance and corruption are pathways by which legal gender disparities disempower women in the labor market

economics and identity this paper considers how identity a person s sense of self affects economic outcomes we incorporate the psychology and sociology of identity into an economic model of behavior in the utility function we propose identity is associated with different social categories and how people in these categories should behave we then construct a simple game theoretic model showing how identity can affect individual interactions the paper adapts these models to gender discrimination in the workplace the economics of poverty and social exclusion and the household division of labor in each case the inclusion of identity substantively changes conclusions of previous economic analysis

diamonds are a rebel s best friend many countries that produce rough diamonds have experienced a highly adverse pattern of economic development in this article we propose that the primary reason for the negative impact is that diamonds easily become the prize in predatory struggles between loot seeking rebels and more or less kleptocratic governments in weakly institutionalised countries like angola the democratic republic of congo and sierra leone this theory works well but it does not explain the impressive growth record of diamond rich botswana and namibia for a deeper understanding of these countries success we point at the crucial differences between kimberlite and alluvial mining and the effect of having the world leading firm de beers as a partner indeed we argue that in countries like angola diamonds can never be a major vehicle for sustained growth although the ongoing kimberley process for eliminating conflict diamonds probably has contributed to making several african countries more stable

mothers and sons preference formation and female labor force dynamics this paper argues that the growing presence of a new type of man one brought up in a family in which the mother worked has been a significant factor in the increase in female labor force participation over time we present cross sectional evidence showing that the wives of men whose mothers worked are themselves significantly more likely to work we use variation in the importance of world war ii as a shock to women s labor force participation as proxied by variation in the male draft rate across u s states to provide evidence in support of the intergenerational consequences of our propagation mechanism

risky business political instability and greenfield foreign direct investment in the arab world which foreign direct investments are most affected by political instability analysis of quarterly greenfield investment flows into countries in the middle east and north africa during the period from 2003 to 2012 shows that adverse political shocks are associated with significantly reduced investment inflows in the non resource tradable sectors by contrast investments in natural resource sectors and non tradable activities appear insensitive to such shocks political instability is thus associated with increased reliance on non tradables and aggravated resource dependence

how much does sorting increase inequality some commentators argue that increased sorting into internally homogeneous neighborhoods schools and marriages is radically polarizing society calibration of a formal model however suggests that the steady state standard deviation of education would increase only 1 7 percent if the correlation between neighbors education doubled and would fall only 1 6 percent if educational sorting by neighborhood disappeared the steady state standard deviation of education would grow 1 percent if the correlation between spouses education increased from 0 6 to 0 8 in fact marital and neighborhood sorting have been stable or even decreasing historically sorting has somewhat more significant effects on intergenerational mobility than on inequality

forgetting the flood an analysis of the flood risk discount over time we examine whether property price differentials reflecting flood risk increase following a large flood event and whether this change is temporary or permanent we use single family residential property sales in dougherty county georgia between 1985 and 2004 in a difference in differences spatial hedonic model framework after the 1994 flood of the century prices of properties in the 100 year floodplain fell significantly this effect was however short lived in spatial hedonic models that explicitly incorporate both linear and nonlinear temporal flood zone effects we show that the flood risk discount disappeared between four and nine years after the flood depending upon the specification jel q51 q54

diamonds are forever wars are not is conflict bad for private firms this paper studies the relationship between civil war and the value of firms in a poor resource abundant country using microeconomic data for angola we focus on diamond mining firms and conduct an event study on the sudden end of the conflict marked by the death of the rebel movement leader in 2002 we find that the stock market perceived this event as bad news rather than good news for companies holding concessions in angola as their abnormal returns declined by 4 percentage points the event had no effect on a control portfolio of otherwise similar diamond mining companies this finding is corroborated by other events and by the adoption of alternative methodologies we interpret our findings in light of conflict generated entry barriers government bargaining power and transparency in the licensing process jel d74 g32 o13 o17 q34

civil war crop failure and child stunting in rwanda economic shocks at birth have lasting effects on children s health several years after the shock the authors calculate height for age z scores for children under age five using data from a rwandan nationally representative household survey conducted in 1992 they exploit district and time variation in crop failure and civil conflict to measure the impact of exogenous shocks that children experience at birth on their height several years later they find that boys and girls born after the shock in regions experiencing civil conflict are both negatively affected with height for age z scores 0 30 and 0 72 standard deviations lower respectively conversely only girls are negatively affected by crop failure with these girls exhibiting 0 41 standard deviation lower height for age z scores and the impact is worse for girls in poor households results are robust to using sibling difference estimators household level production and rainfall shocks as alternative measures of crop failure

time series growth in the female labor force in this paper we investigate the reasons for the growth in the female labor force in america during the twentieth century in our research we study the longer term trends since 1900 and conduct a more intensive examination of developments after the second world war on the basis of our work we conclude that rising real wages accounted for 60 of the total growth in the female labor force half of this wage effect in expanding labor supply was the fertility reducing consequence of a higher female wage

sorting and long run inequality many social commentators have raised concerns over the possibility that increased sorting in society may lead to greater inequality to investigate this we construct a dynamic model of intergenerational education acquisition fertility and marital sorting and parameterize the steady state to match several basic empirical endings we end that increased sorting will signiecantly increase income inequality four factors are important to our endings a negative correlation between fertility and education a decreasing marginal effect of parental education on children s years of education wages that are sensitive to the relative supply of skilled workers and borrowing constraints that affect educational attainment for some low income households

when rebels attack quantifying the impacts of capturing territory from the government in yemen households were adversely affected by the mostly nonviolent capture of yemen s capital in 2014 although socioeconomically advantaged households were initially better able to cope with the shock th

conducting event studies with thinly traded stocks abstract procedures for measuring abnormal performance around events when securities do not trade daily are examined a rank test patterned after the statistic proposed by corrado corrado c j 1989 a nonparametne test for abnormal security price performance in event studies journal of financial economics 23 385 395 is derived the empirical frequency distributions of the rank test statistic and a conventional test statistic are assessed under different rules for handling missing stock returns the results suggest that the traditional procedures are reasonably well specified for thickly and moderately traded stocks but misspecified for thinly traded stocks the rank test however performs well for all trading frequencies and trade to trade returns are the best way to handle missing returns

acting wife marriage market incentives and labor market investments do single women avoid career enhancing actions because these actions signal undesirable traits like ambition to the marriage market while married and unmarried female mba students perform similarly when their performance is unobserved by classmates on exams and problem sets unmarried women have lower participation grades in a field experiment single female students reported lower desired salaries and willingness to travel and work long hours on a real stakes placement questionnaire when they expected their classmates to see their preferences other groups responses were unaffected by peer observability a second experiment indicates the effects are driven by observability by single male peers

rockets the housing market effects of a credible terrorist threat abstract this paper explores the economic costs of conflict using a unique experiment we analyze the effects of hezbollah s massive surprise rocket attack against northern israel during the 2006 second lebanon war and the continued threat posed by the organization s expanding rocket arsenal on the housing market the labor market and patterns of migration flows and sorting relying on hedonic and repeat sales approaches and using a difference in differences identification strategy for 2000 2012 we show that the attack led to a 6 7 decline in house prices and rents in the most severely hit localities relative to other localities in northern israel these effects persisted until 2012 suggesting that the public continued to view the rocket threat as credible in contrast we find practically no effect on labor market conditions migration flows and sorting