unanticipated aggregate disturbances and tests of the life cycle consumption model several recent studies have used data on food consumption from the panel study of income dynamics psid to test t he rational expectations life cycle hypothesis against the alternative of prevalent liquidity constraints these tests invoke the rational expectations restriction that income forecast errors are independent of lagged information this restriction however applies only in a time series context it is possible that unanticipated macroeconomic disturbances cause forecast errors to be correlated with lagged information in a cross section of families the authors present evidence of such a correlation in the psid data show that this correlation biases previous tests of the life cycle model toward rejection and derive a proper test of the life cycle model using pa nel data copyright 1993 by mit press

wage profiles and imperfect capital markets a positive analysis this paper examines the structure of long term employment contracts when labor is mobile and risk averse employers are unable to monitor workers outside job offers workers cannot borrow against future income and workers productivity is increasing in the length of service with the long term employer workers are then liquidity constrained and the contract trades off consumption smoothing against efficiency in turnover in contrast to previous papers which have examined this problem this paper provides a continuous time formulation that permits a detailed characterization of the properties of the wage profile

a life cycle consumption model with liquidity constraints theory and empirical results a structural consumption model incorporating endogenous liquidity constraints is fit to a cross section of 798 u s families liquidity constrained families are estimated to constitute 19 4 percent of the population sampled a group that accounts for 16 7 percent of consumption in the population sampled in sample simulations of the model suggest that a temporary tax has three to four times more impact on aggregate consumption than it would if liquidity constraints were not in effect copyright 1987 by the econometric society

saving puzzles and saving policies in the united states in the past two decades the widely reported personal saving rate in the united states has dropped from double digits to below zero first we attempt to account for the decline in the national income and product accounts nipa saving rate the macroeconomic literature suggests that 40 50 per cent of the drop since 1988 can be attributed to households spending stock market capital gains another 30 per cent is accounting transfers from personal saving into government and corporate saving because of the way pensions and capital gains taxes are treated in the nipa second while nipa saving measures are well suited to measuring the supply of new funds for investment and capital accumulation it is not clear that they should be the target of government saving policies finally we emphasize that the nipa saving rate is not useful in judging whether households are preparing for retirement or other contingencies many households have accumulated significant wealth primarily through retirement saving vehicles and capital gains even as the saving rate slid there remains a segment of the population who save little and whose behaviour appears untouched either by the stock market boom or the slide in personal saving we explore reasons and policy options for their puzzling low saving rate copyright 2001 oxford university press

time inconsistent preferences and social security in this paper we examine the role of social security in an economy populated by overlapping generations of individuals with time inconsistent preferences who face mortality risk individual income risk and borrowing constraints we find that unfunded social security lowers the capital stock output and consumption for consumers with time consistent or time inconsistent preferences however it may raise or lower welfare depending on the strength of time inconsistency

valuing lost home production of dual earner couples using a life cycle model in which women divide their time between home and market work we establish a link between retirement wealth and the value of forgone home production we use data from the health and retirement study to estimate the model s parameters and adjust the growth rate of gdp to reflect reductions in non market output we find that the value of forgone home production is modest about 25 percent of women s measured earnings

intergenerational linkages in consumption behavior consumption is partly a social activity yet most studies of consumer behavior treat households in isolation we investigate familial relationships in consumption patterns using a sample of parents and their children from the panel study of income dynamics we nd a positive and statistically signi cant parent speci c eect on children s consumption even after controlling for the eect of parental income and we nd similar eects for sibling pairs child consumption responds negatively to large post retirement shortfalls in consumption of the parents this behavior holds up even after allowing for the possibility of smaller parent to child transfers made necessary by the parental consumption shortfalls these results suggest that although income is an important source of the intergenerational correlation parental choices and experiences also aect consumption behavior of the children

testing the response of consumption to income changes with noisy panel data this paper tests the rational expectations lifecycle model of consumption against i a keynesian model and ii the rational expectations lifecycle model with imperfect capital markets the tests are based upon the relative responsiveness of consumption to income changes that can be predicted from past information and income changes that cannot he predicted the tests allow for measurement error in income the results reject the keynesian model and generally support the lifecycle model but the results are not sufficiently precise to rule out the possibility that some households are liquidity constrained measurement error has a strong influence on the relationship between consumption and income

the theory of public goods non nash behaviour abstract most treatments of equilibrium public goods provision assume zero conjectural variations in the sense that each individual regards the behaviour of the rest of the community as independent of his own this paper introduces nonzero conjectural variations into the model a diagram is introduced which can depict both the individual s and the community s equilibrium in the presence of nonzero conjectural variations equilibrium and optimal outcomes are compared and a specific functional form is used to investigate the effect of community size on the nature of equilibrium finally we discuss the requirement that conjectures should be consistent

allocation inflexibilities female labor supply and housing assets accumulation are women working to pay the mortgage this article uses data from the 1986 canadian family expenditures survey to estimate a life cycle consistent model of household labor supply and commodity demand that incorporates a mortgage qualification constraint based on earnings both the parametric and nonparametric implications of the model suggest that the labor supply of a nontrivial percentage of married women is constrained by mortgage commitments the results of generalized selectivity models of female labor force participation and labor supply show that the positive effect of a high debt service ratio exceeds the negative effect of young children

economics of alliances the lessons for collective action this essay provides an up to date summary of the findings of the literature on the economics of alliances we show that the study of the economics of alliances has played a pivotal role in understanding and applying public good analysis to real world applications we establish that the manner in which alliances address burden sharing and allocative issues is related to strategic doctrines weapon technology perceived threats and membership composition past contributions are evaluated and areas needing further development are identified the theoretical and empirical knowledge gained from the study of alliances is shown to be directly applicable to a wide range of international collectives

the retirement consumption puzzle a marital bargaining approach abstract evidence from several countries reveals a substantial drop in household consumption around the age of retirement that is difficult to explain with life cycle models using food consumption data from more than 550 households from the panel study of income dynamics for the years 1979 1986 and 1989 1992 we find that married couple households decrease their expenditures on both food consumed at home and away from home by about 9 following the retirement of the male household head no significant decrease in consumption is found for single households either in a sample of males or a pooled sample of single males and females these results are consistent with a model of marital bargaining in which wives prefer to save more than their husbands do to support an expected longer retirement period and relative control over household decisions is affected by control over market income the pattern of the consumption decline which is increasing in the age gap between husband and wife lends further support to this interpretation

discounting the free ride alliances and security in the postwar world the collective goods theory of alliances and neorealist theory yield conflicting expectations about the security policies of states the former emphasizes the temptation to ride free on the efforts of others while the latter emphasizes the incentives for self help in the cases of britain china and france during the early cold war the constraints identified by neorealist theory reinforced by the advent of nuclear weapons prevailed each discounted the value of the security benefits superpower partners could provide the second ranking powers decisions to shoulder the burden of developing independent nuclear forces are at odds with collective goods arguments that portray especially strong temptations to ride free in the circumstances that prevailed at that time an international system dominated by two superpowers each possessing large nuclear deterrent arsenals that could easily be employed on behalf of allies this analysis suggests that present efforts to discourage additional states from acquiring nuclear weapons by offering them international security guarantees are unlikely to succeed

complementarity free riding and the military expenditures of nato allies abstract this paper examines the major influences of an ally s demand for military expenditures demand equations are estimated for a sample of nato nations using the iterative seemingly unrelated regressions technique evidence is presented indicating that structural changes occured in these equations in the early 1970s this instability is the predicted effect of the doctrine of flexible response adopted by nato during this time period the statistical tests show that the medium sized nuclear powers military expenditures responded identically to income and defense spillins the same held true for the lowland allies

external threat and collective action i introduction individuals with common interests usually attempt to further their welfare by acting collectively examples of collective action include the provision of a public good or collective good the establishment of clubs and the formation of alliances or political parties in his seminal work the logic of collective action olson 1965 uses the provision of collective goods as an example to discuss collective action problem or coordination failure in particular he analyzes how group size and the distribution of individual benefits of a collective good may affect the provision level of the good two of the most celebrated propositions from his book are the suboptimality proposition the larger the group the farther it will fall short of providing an optimal amount of a collective good p 35 and the exploitation proposition there is a systematic tendency for exploitation of the great by the small p 29 these propositions have generated a broad research effort in collective action problems in economics and political science many scholars have examined the validity of these propositions 1 a limitation of olson s theory is that he analyzed collective action problems as phenomena within a single group while assuming that external threat to a group either does not exist or is treated as a constant in many cases however two or more groups compete against each other in these situations a group s provision of collective goods might be affected by the configurations of its own group and the competing groups and relative strength of the groups to illustrate assume that two alliances of states say a and b are competing for supremacy an increase in a s military spending poses a greater threat to b s security in response to the heightened threat members of b might feel the need to increase their military spending which in turn could affect the military spending decisions of members of a bruce 1990 develops a model that endogenizes external threat in a three country model with two allies and one adversary interest group lobbying is another example to understand a group s lobbying behavior scholars often focus on the number and size of firms within the group and their geographical distribution however the configuration of a competing interest group and the two groups relative strengths should also figure into an individual firm s decision concerning the appropriate contribution to its group s lobbying efforts other examples include party discipline voter turnout ledyard 1981 1984 palfrey and rosenthal 1983 electoral coalitional politics tsebelis 1990 hausken 1995a b negative campaigning in primary elections newman and niou 2000 factional rivalry in civil wars and joint ventures for research and development in industrial organizations all these examples point to the importance of external threat in explaining the logic of collective action in this article to study simultaneously the way intergroup competition and intragroup collective action interact we develop a collective good model that endogenizes external threat in the context of competition between two groups a group can be either defensive or offensive in nature we define a group as defensive if its fighting capacity can be used only to defend its own resources a group is offensive if its fighting capacity can be used to expropriate resources from its rivals as well as protect its own resources we realize that empirically it is difficult to determine whether a group is offensive or defensive but theoretically it is useful to know how the offensive or defensive nature of a group can affect the collective action problem we analyze collective action problems when 1 one of the groups is offensive whereas the other is defensive and 2 both groups are offensive respectively also in group competition if conquests are economically profitable the way spoils of victory are divided among group members can also affect collective action

the permanent income hypothesis consumption euler relations are estimated with data from the 1986 1991 us consumer expenditure survey without creating a synthetic panel the stochastic implications of the permanent income hypothesis generally are not rejected and there is little evidence of liquidity constrained or rule of thumb behavior the results are robust with respect to consumption category changes in sample and choice of instruments 1999 elsevier science b v all rights reserved

the wealth age relation among the aged aged people face the problem of allocating over the rest of their lifetimes the wealth that they have accumulated during their working years this problem is fairly complex because they are uncertain about the dates of their death and because they may wish to use their wealth to finance general consumption or hold it to meet emergencies leave estates or maintain power or status whether skilled at dynamic programming or not aged people effectively do make these decisions what are the results some studies of the entire lifetime pattern of saving and wealth tend to support the simple life cycle model in which the aged use up their wealth to help finance consumption harold lydall for example found saving rates to increase and then decrease with age in the whole population and to be negative for the group aged 65 and over guarded support for the theory was found by franco modigliani and albert ando in britain and by dorothy projector in the united states more recently a f shorrocks examined the lifetime pattern of wealth holding in estate tax data for a single cohort and found the hump pattern that is characteristic of life cycle saving other evidence on wealth holding runs contrary to this however in a study of estate tax returns in washington d c james d smith found that wealth increased with age among the aged after controlling for other demographic variables examining national estate tax data john brittain found wealth to increase with age in the united states and a b atkinson and a j harrison reported the same pattern in england and wales in a sample of tiaa annuity recipients analyzed by james mulanaphy over half reported that their total savings had increased during retirement and another quarter reported that their savings had remained about the same in this paper i examine wealth holding patterns among aged married couples using survey data representing the entire aged population of the united states in 1968 the statistical analysis serves as a test of the hypothesis that emerges from life cycle theory and provides some further exploration into the economic behavior of the aged i find that the aged tend to increase their wealth over time

random earnings differences lifetime liquidity constraints and altruistic intergenerational transfers abstract this paper develops a model of private savings behavior in which households care about their descendants cannot have negative net worth and have lifetime earnings depending on random draws from an exogenous distribution of abilities the elements interact very lucky parents are likely to leave large estates constrained children are unusually likely to receive intergenerational transfers the paper proves the existence of a stationary cross sectional distribution of wealth endogenously determines where liquidity constraints will bind and shows that the long term interest rate must be such that ricardian neutrality fails its last section generates several illustrative numerical simulations

ricardian equivalence long run leviathan abstract this paper presents a heterogenous overlapping generations with altruism model in which intergenerational discounting is stochastic the model nests three popular macroeconomics models those of ramsey economic journal 38 152 1928 543 559 diamond american economic review 55 1965 1126 1150 and a variant of the blanchard journal of political economy 93 2 1985 223 247 buiter the economic journal 98 391 1988 279 293 weil journal of public economics 38 2 1989 183 198 model it is shown that under a mild condition originally derived by weil journal of monetary economics 19 3 1987 377 391 the long run capital intensity is robust to practically every popular theoretical criticism of the standard ricardian model these criticisms include the imperfect inheritability of time preference parameters and hence finite horizons on the part of all households myopia in the form of overly discounting the future borrowing constraints distortionary labor taxation exchange strategic bequest motives common cultural constraints egalitarian bequests and primogeniture endogenous fertility and joy of giving while precautionary saving can theoretically violate long run neutrality the asymptotic capital intensity is still bounded below by preference parameters the overall conclusions are sharply at odds with those found in most articles dealing with the theoretical foundations of ricardian equivalence

donor funding of multilateral aid agencies determining factors and revealed burden sharing the paper reports an empirical study of the factors affecting burden sharing among oecd s 22 dac members in bankrolling the multilateral aid agencies these are the un agencies world bank s ida and non ida programmes regional development banks european community and other multilateral agencies that include the global environmental facility and the montreal protocol on environment annual data over 1970 2000 pooled across the donor countries form the basis for the empirical estimation of each donor s share in the oda aid receipts for each multilateral agency our findings suggest the existence of reverse exploitation i e the financial burden of the agencies is disproportionally carried by the smaller donors the study also finds that

the third leg of the kantian tripod for peace international organizations and militarized disputes 1950 85 immanuel kant believed that democracy economic interdependence and international law and organizations could establish the foundations for perpetual peace our analyses of politically relevant dyads show that each of the three elements of the kantian peace makes a statistically significant independent contribution to peaceful interstate relations these benefits are evident even when the influence of other theoretically interesting factors such as relative power alliances geographic contiguity and economic growth is held constant increasing the number of shared memberships in intergovernmental organizations igos by one standard deviation reduces the incidence of militarized disputes by about 23 percent from the baseline rate for a typical pair of bordering states if both members of a dyad are democratic conflict is 35 percent less likely than the baseline increasing both the dyadic trade gdp ratio and the trend in trade by a standard deviation reduces the chance of conflict by 38 percent together all the kantian variables lower the probability of a dispute by 72 percent we check for reverse causation and find reason to believe that a feedback system is at work with igos reducing conflict and low conflict dyads joining igos democracies and interdependent states are more likely to join igos with one another bringing together the three elements of a system for kantian peace

retirement consumption insights from a survey abstract prior research has established that consumption falls significantly at retirement what is not known is the extent to which this fall is anticipated during the working years using data from a new survey we show that many working households do expect a considerable fall in consumption when they retire in fact those who are already retired report significantly smaller falls in consumption than are expected by those who are still working

agglomeration and dispersion of high order service employment in the montreal metropolitan region 1981 96 much of the recent urban literature on suburban employment centres has neglected the role of high order services perhaps the principal component of edge cities in the creation of the evolving multinucleated metropolitan structure this paper specifically explores the role of high order services in this process we use employment by place of work data at the census tract level to examine the changing intrametropolitan geography of employment in four finance insurance and real estate fire services and eight business services in the montreal area over the period 1981 96 we find evidence of central business district cbd decline in relative but not absolute terms the resulting decentralisation has clearly assumed the form of polycentricity rather than of generalised dispersion in spite of recent advances in telecommunications technologies agglomeration economies continue to exert an important impact upon intrametropolitan location

the role of intergenerational transfers in aggregate capital accumulation this paper uses historical u s data to directly estimate the contribution of intergenerational transfers to aggregate capital accumulation the evidence presented indicates that intergenerational transfers account for the vast majority of aggregate u s capital formation only a negligible fraction of actual capital accumulation can be traced to life cycle or hump savings a major difference between this study and previous investigations of this issue is the use of more accurate longitudinal age earnings and age consumption profiles these profiles are simply too flat to generate substantial life cycle savings this paper suggests the importance of and need for substantially greater research and data collection on intergenerational transfers life cycle models of savings that emphasize savings for retirement as the dominant form of capital accumulation should give way to models that illuminate the determinants of intergenerational transfers

the theory of collective action and burden sharing in nato mancur olson s theory of collective action could account for much of the variance in the defense burdens of the allied nations of the north atlantic treaty organization nato in the early years of the cold war but the association between economic size gross domestic product or gdp and defense burden the ratio of military expenditures to gdp has declined to insignificant levels two influences are shown to be important in producing this change the increased pursuit of private goods by greece turkey and portugal and the growing cooperation among the other european allies since cooperation in the military realm has not provided the europeans with credible means of self defense it appears to be a consequence of the general growth of interdependence in europe during the postwar period nato is still essentially a uniquely privileged group producing a relatively pure public good accordingly the theory of collective action continues to provide valuable insights into the operation of the alliance

life cycle valuation of social security and pension wealth abstract the proper valuation of annuity wealth is important for many empirical studies of economic behavior and the distribution of wealth and well being this paper examines bernheim s argument that the value of social security benefit streams should be determined by simple discounting rather than by actuarial discounting when consumers behave according to life cycle principles in a model having a more realistic mortality structure than his we document the poor performance of both methods for a broad range of parameter values

the sensitivity of consumption to transitory income estimates from panel data on households we investigate the stochastic relation between income and consumption specifically consumption of food within a panel of about 2 000 households our major findings are 1 consumption responds much more strongly to permanent than to transitory movements of income 2 the response to transitory income is nonetheless clearly positive 3 a simple test independent of our model of consumption rejects a central implication of the pure life cycle permanent income hypothesis the observed covariation of income and consumption is compatible with pure life cycle permanent income behavior on the part of80 percent of families and simple proportionality of consumption and income among the remaining 20 percent as a general matter our findings support the view that families respond differently to different sources of income variations in particular temporary income tax policies have smaller effects on consumption than do other more permanent changes in income of the same magnitude this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

honey i shrunk the kids benefits revisiting intergenerational conflict in oecd countries intergenerational conflict may arise when the interests of different age groups do not align we examine cross country data to find evidence for this conflict in oecd countries we derive our results from a fgls estimation model which is complemented by a system gmm estimation to account for potential endogeneity the data are from a panel of 22 oecd countries over the time period 1985 2005 we find little support for intergenerational conflict in general however those who are close to statutory retirement age dislike public expenditure on families and education because once they retire they will have less income compared to their work income this effect is transitory however implying a change in voting behavior during retirement age

an analytical solution to the inverse consumption function with liquidity constraints abstract this paper analyzes the consumption function induced by liquidity constraints under perfect foresight in continuous time obtaining an analytical expression for the inverse consumption function liquidity constraints have dramatic effects on consumption even long before the constraints bind

what accounts for the variation in retirement wealth among u s households even among households with similar socioeconomic characteristics saving and wealth vary considerably life cycle models attribute this variation to differences in time preference rates risk tolerance exposure to uncertainty relative tastes for work and leisure at advanced ages and income replacement rates these factors have testable implications concerning the relation between accumulated wealth and the shape of the consumption profile using the panel study of income dynamics and the consumer expenditure survey we find little support for these implications the data are instead consistent with rule of thumb mental accounting or hyperbolic discounting theories of wealth accumulation jel di d91 e21

international regimes and alliance behavior explaining nato conventional force levels with the end of the cold war the military posture of the north atlantic treaty organization nato has entered a period of profound change prior to the recent dramatic political events in europe however nato conventional force levels in the central region had been remarkably stable for some three decades this article seeks to explain this record of stability in terms of three widely used theories of international relations it argues that balance of power theory and public goods theory cannot alone provide a satisfactory account rather these traditional approaches for understanding alliance behavior must be supplemented by regime theory which emphasizes the constraining effects of enduring institutional factors even in the face of structural change specifically it shows how an international regime has influenced the provision of conventional forces in the central region by alliance members more generally this analysis seeks to contribute to the literature on international regimes in three ways first it demonstrates that regimes do matter by providing an example of their importance for explaining state behavior and international outcomes second it extends regime theory to relations among military allies third it elaborates a comprehensive model for understanding why states actually comply with regime injunctions the model stresses both the ways in which regimes effectively modify the international environment within which states operate altering the costs and benefits associated with different courses of action and the ways in which participating states may internalize regime norms and rules thereby making compliance increasingly automatic

time to cook expenditure at retirement in spain detailed panel expenditure data from spain reveal little evidence of a retirement consumption puzzle in 1985 2004 there is a drop in food at home expenditure in the later years of the sample along with evidence of households paying lower prices for the food they purchase after retirement however our findings are consistent with a model that allows for home production as long as one accounts for the greater participation in housework by men after retirement coinciding with this latter period our work adds to the evidence from several countries and helps in reconciling the retirement consumption puzzle with life cycle models

borrowing constraints occupational choice and labor supply we introduce borrowing constraints into the life cycle theory of labor supply and show that they account for observed profiles in consumption earnings and hours worked they can also account for differences in occupational choice across individuals who differ in initial wealth marital status or ability this formalizes several aspects of observed differences in the labor force behavior of men and women

testing the permanent income hypothesis the evidence from canadian data this paper investigates whether there are variants of the permanent income model that are consistent with seasonally unadjusted quarterly postwar canadian data the analysis is based on a misspecification test equation which nests the standard permanent income model the results obtained are somewhat unfavourable to the permanent income hypothesis the same results also apply to more general models in which the real interest rate is time varying and the utility function is non separable in consumption and the stock of durable goods un test de l hypothese du revenu permanent resultats derives a partir des donnees cana diennes ce memoire presente les resultats d une enquete pour etablir s il existe un ou des variantes du modele du revenu permanent qui soient compatibles avec les donnees trimestrielles canadiennes non desaisonnalisees pour la periode de l apres seconde guerre mondiale l analyse est fondee sur une equation qui encastre le modele de revenu perma nent standard mais qui est enrichie pour tester la specification de l 6equation les resultats obtenus sont quelque peu defavorables a l hypothese du revenu permanent les memes resultats s appliquent aussi a des modeles plus generaux dans lesquels le taux d interet reel

uncertain lifetime consumption and dissaving in retirement this paper asks whether the continued accumulation or mild dissaving observed among the retired can be explained by uncertain lifetime in the absence of annuities after an initial period influenced by borrowing constraints under constant relative risk aversion uncertain lifetime depresses consumption by a proportion increasing with age if the elasticity of intertemporal substitution in consumption is small illustrative computations based on actual income and survival data show that plausible elasticities are sufficiently small to give this effect the reduction in consumption is large enough to explain much of the lack of decumulation by the elderly

the permanent income hypothesis and consumption durability analysis based on japanese panel data the permanent income hypothesis with durability of commodities is tested on a panel of about 2 000 japanese households for several commodity groups under static expectations about real interest rates and for some class of utility functions consumption which is a distributed lag function of current and past expenditure follows a martingale main empirical results are i the durability of commodities usually classified as services is substantial ii the hypothesis applies to about 85 percent of the population consisting of wage earners and iii income changes explain only a small fraction of the movements in expenditure

is there a retirement consumption puzzle evidence using subjective retirement expectations abstract previous research finds a systematic decrease in consumption at retirement a finding that is inconsistent with the life cycle permanent income hypothesis if retirement is an expected event in this paper we use workers subjective beliefs about their retirement dates as an instrument for retirement after demonstrating that subjective retirement expectations are strong predictors of subsequent retirement decisions we still find a consumption decline at retirement for workers who retire when expected however our estimates of this consumption fall are about a third less than those found when we instead rely on the instrumental variables strategy used in prior studies

altruism deficit policies and the wealth of future generations i introduction there is now a substantial body of evidence suggesting that altruistic financial bequests are zero for the vast majority of households 1 other studies seem to indicate that the financial bequests which are made are not likely to be altruistically motivated 2 while this evidence against the importance of altruistic financial bequests seems reasonably convincing it is by no means clear that the importance of altruism per se has been dismissed 3 for example the results reported in altonji hayashi and kotlikoff 1992 tables 14 17 indicate that extended family resources while not perfectly linked to own resources are important for explaining own consumption the authors do not reject the notion that substantial altruistically motivated transfers occur in the u s rather they suggest the altruistically motivated transfers which are made take the form of less than fully efficient human capital transfers to children if most altruistic transfers do take place via educational expenditures how does this affect the ricardian equivalence theorem robert barro 1974 1989 argues the presence of any altruistic transfer is sufficient to guarantee that intergenerational transfers caused by government policy are neutral other forms of intergenerational transfers such as inter vivos gifts to children support of children s education and so on can work in a similar manner therefore the ricardian results will hold even if many persons leave little in the way of formal bequests 1989 41 4 an alternative view however is expressed by allan drazen 1978 he argues if parents possess an insufficient mix of wealth and altruism intergenerational transfers could be exhausted before the efficient level of human capital investment is achieved if explicit or implicit loans between parents and children are not possible then the government may be able to improve welfare by generating intergenerational transfers from children to parents 5 a cut in the parents tax burden and an equal present value increase in the tax on the next generation is equivalent to a government enforced loan at the going market interest rate since educational expenditures are inefficiently low the return on human capital investment exceeds the loan rate therefore parents could put an amount less than the tax cut into their children s education and still leave the children with enough additional income to pay for the future tax increase thus a deficit policy serves to expand the consumption possibility set of the family viewed in this way drazen 1978 514 footnote 7 imagines an argument for a pareto optimal level of public debt issue 6 a third possibility was identified by nerlove razin and sadka 1988 who conduct the most explicit analysis of government transfers in an economy with altruistic but financial bequest constrained households they also find a transfer or implicit loan to parents from their children will make the parents unambiguously better off however they were the first to point out that a deficit policy may lower the welfare of the children although they fail to explain why thus even in the presence of altruistic transfers from parents to children the effect of deficits on the consumption of future generations is far from clear in this paper we wish to clarify the effect of intergenerational transfers on bequest constrained families the next section intuitively explains why a government loan or deficit policy generates an ambiguous effect on the children s consumption even though altruistic parents are fully capable of making both generations better off after the loan we also identify the key structural determinants of the change in the children s wealth due to the loan in section iii we extend the simple model of section ii to a more quantitatively realistic multi period life cycle simulation model of a bequest constrained household the simulation model is then used in section iv to examine how a government intergenerational transfer affects the consumption of each generation under various settings of the key structural determinants identified in section ii

the credit constrained consumer an empirical study of demand and supply in the loan market this article presents an empirical analysis of credit constrained households in which models of both demand and supply sides of the market for loans are simultaneously estimated we develop a discrete choice logit model of the consumers decision on whether or not to apply for credit combining this with a reduced form logistic model for the banks credit granting decision we then estimate the model with cross sectional data as a nonlinear ordered sequential logit our findings shed light on the criteria used by banks in assessing credit applications and reveal the strong dependence of preferences on demographic characteristics the results also suggest that agents face significant fixed costs in applying for loans the fact that we jointly estimate models of both supply and demand sides of the credit market enables us to examine whether particular groups in the population are more frequently credit rationed because they tend to demand more loans or because they are viewed as bad credit risks by lenders

the existence uniqueness and optimality of the terminal wealth depletion time in life cycle models of saving under uncertain lifetime and borrowing constraint abstract in life cycle models of saving under uncertain lifetime and borrowing constraint the consumer s wealth must be depleted before the maximum lifetime this paper investigates the existence uniqueness and optimality of the terminal wealth depletion time it is proved that the optimal terminal wealth depletion time if such exists must be unique if the equation that determines the optimal terminal wealth depletion has multiple solutions then the location of the optimal solution will depend on the configuration of the solutions an optimality test is developed to verify whether a candidate solution for the terminal wealth depletion time is indeed optimal the paper introduces a method new to economics the dubovitskii milyutin adjoint equation to analyze the properties of the optimal control problem