foreign exchange market intervention and reserve accumulation in emerging asia is there evidence of fear of appreciation abstract asian central banks react more strongly to currency appreciations than depreciations and more to nominal effective exchange rates neers than to bilateral us dollar rates this rationalizes the relative exchange rate stability and the sustained reserve accumulation in the region

the value of corporate voting rights and control a cross country analysis this paper measures the value of corporate voting rights specifically of the control block of votes in a sample of 661 dual class firms in 18 countries in 1997 a consistent measure across countries is proposed the measure is adjusted for takeover probability block holding costs and dividend and liquidity differences between the share classes the value of controlblock votes varies widely across countries it is close to half of firm market value in south korea andclose to zero in finland the value of control block votes is interpretedas a lower bound for actual private benefits of the controlling shareholder the legal environment law enforcement investor protection takeover regulations andpower concentrating corporate charter provisions explain 68 of the cross country variation in the value of control block votes

foreign corporations and the culture of transparency evidence from russian administrative data abstract firms from developed countries carry a culture of transparency in business transactions that is opposite to the culture of hiding and insider dealing in developing and transition economies we employ russian administrative data on reported earnings and market values of cars to measure wage misreporting for individual employees of domestic firms in moscow we show that closer ties to multinationals lead to improved transparency of wage reporting in private russian companies employees located closest to movers from multinationals in the job quality space experience the largest gains in transparency we find a robust correlation between wage misreporting and accounting fraud

investor protection and equity markets we present a simple model of an entrepreneur going public in an environment with poor legal protection of outside shareholders the model incorporates elements of becker s j political econ 106 1968 172 crime and punishment framework into a corporate finance environment of jensen and meckling j financial econ 3 1976 305 we examine the entrepreneur s decision and the market equilibrium the model is consistent with a number of empirical regularities concerning the relation between investor protection and corporate finance it also sheds light on the patterns of capital flows between rich and poor countries and on the politics of reform of investor protection r 2002 elsevier science b v all rights reserved

the demand for international reserves in china an ecm model with domestic monetary disequilibrium this paper employs a version of the error correction model to investigate the demand for international reserves in a typical planned economy china disturbances from the domestic markets are considered by incorporating the monetary disequilibrium into the model the authors main conclusions are that 1 reserve holdings in china have maintained a long run relationship and a stable dynamic relationship with several determinants since the 1950s confirming china s prudential foreign reserve policy and 2 monetary disequilibrium has significant short run effects on reserve holdings reflecting the authorities general balancing policy in their annual planning copyright 1994 by the london school of economics and political science

real rigidities and the non neutrality of money rigidities in real prices are not sufficient to create rigidities in nominal prices and real effects of nominal shocks and by themselves small frictions in nominal adjustment such as costs of changing prices create only small non neutralities but this paper shows that substantial nominal rigidity can arise from a combination of real rigidities and small nominal frictions the paper shows the connection between real and nominal rigidity given the presence of nominal frictions both in general and for two specific sources of real rigidity one arising from goods market imperfections and the other from labour market imperfections

taxes theft and firm performance this paper examines the interaction between income diversion and firm performance using unique russian banking transaction data i identify 42 483 spacemen fly by night firms created specifically for income diversion next i build a direct measure of income diversion for 45 429 companies and show that it is negatively related to firm performance i identify the main reason for the observed effect as managerial diversion rather than tax evasion per se i further show that stricter tax enforcement can improve firm performance a one standard deviation increase in tax enforcement corresponds to an increase in the annual revenue growth rate of 2 6

the stability of the demand for international reserves abstract empirical studies based on data from the 1960s and 1970s yielded estimated demands for international reserves that have been regarded as stable functions of a limited set of variables exept during the period surrounding the collapse of the bretton woods system this paper examines the stability of these estimated demands by extending the samles to include data from the 1980s the new estimation results indicate that the emergenceof external payments difficulties and reduced access to international financial markets of many countries have been accompanied by changes in the changes in the estimated demands for reserves that were as large as those that occurred during the collapse ofthe bretton woods system

the determination of escalator clauses in collective agreements u ntil very recently the literature on the wider usage of escalator clauses has dealt mainly with their impact on inflation unemployment the trade balance and the exchange rate it is equally important however to understand why and in what circumstances employers and labor unions agree to incorporate such clauses in work contracts in the past few years shavell 1976 azariadis 1978 and blinder 1978 have outlined a theoretical framework for explaining the emergence of indexation to the best of our knowledge however none of the assumptions deriving from these models have been subjected to empirical testing the purpose of this paper is first to develop and test a number of these assumptions and second to consider the problem of simultaneity between two types of adjustments to inflation indexation versus shorter contract duration in the first section we summarize the contributions of the three aforementioned authors to the theory of wage indexation and extract from them a number of verifiable assumptions the second section provides an empirical framework since adjustments to uncertainty about inflation can take the form of shorter contract duration or indexation those two variables are simultaneously determined to overcome the problem of dummy endogenous variables in a simultaneous equation system we have applied the method suggested by heckman 1978 based on the use of maximum likelihood estimators in the third section we analyse the results and in the conclusion we draw their implications for economic policy

the sudan demand for international reserve a case of a labour exporting country an empirical analysis of the demand for international reserves in the sudan is presented based on the error correction model this model is parametrically rich enough to allow the division of the effects into long run influences short term adjustments and proportional equilibrium impacts beside addressing conventional issues in reserve demand literature the model explicitly incorporates the impact on reserve demand of remittances transferred by sudanese nationals working abroad and the impact due to money market disequilibrium the demand function is found to be stable and characterized by constant returns to scale copyright 1990 by the london school of economics and political science

asymmetric exchange rate intervention and international reserve accumulation in india abstract the empirical evidence derived from the ardl approach of pesaran et al pesaran m h shin y smith r j 1996 testing for the existence of a long run relationship dae working paper no 9622 department of applied economics university of cambridge suggests that volatility of external transactions has had a moderate impact on reserve demand in recent years instead asymmetric exchange rate intervention triggered perhaps by concerns about india s export competitiveness seems to have contributed to large stockpile of reserves

the demand for international reserves and monetary equilibrium some evidence from developing countries traditionally two alternative explanations have been offered for the behavior of international reserves through time on the one hand the literature on the demand for international reserves postulates that reserves movements respond to discrepancies between desired and actual reserves onthe other hand according to the monetary approach to the balance of payments changes in international reserves will be related to excess demands or excess supplies for money the purpose of this paper is to empirically integrate these two basic explanations for international reserves movements this is done by estimating a dynamic equation that explicitly allows reserves movements to reflect the monetary authority s excess demand for international reserves and the public s excess demand for money the results obtained using a sample of 23 developing countries that maintained a fixed exchange rate during period 1965 1972 confirm the hypothesis that reserves movements respond both to monetary factors and to differences between actual and desired reserves these results indicate that the exclusion of monetary considerations from the dynamic analysis of international reserves will yield biased coefficients this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

hyperbolic discounting and the phillips curve using a standard dynamic general equilibrium model we show that the interaction of staggered nominal contracts with hyperbolic discounting leads to inflation having significant long run effects on real variables

demand for international reserves corrections for serial correlation and heteroscedasticity 1987 demand for international reserves corrections for serial correlation and heteroscedasticity applied economics vol 19 no 5 pp 609 618

macroeconomic effects of corporate tax policy abstract prior studies on the relation between corporate taxes and future macroeconomic growth present contradictory evidence we argue this mixed evidence is at least partly due to the use of statutory corporate tax rates which ignore the complexity of tax exemptions tax deductions tax enforcement and firms tax planning we propose an alternative tax rate measure that aggregates cash effective tax rates of listed firms which reflect not only statutory tax rates but also other features of the tax code enforcement and firms tax planning we find a strong robust negative relation between country level effective tax rates and future macroeconomic growth

the dynamic effects of aggregate demand and supply disturbances we interpret fluctuations in gnp and unemployment as due to two types of disturbances disturbances that have a permanent effect on output and disturbances that do not we interpret the first as supply disturbances the second as demand disturbances demand disturbances have a hump shaped mirror image effect on output and unemployment the effect of supply disturbances on output increases steadily over time peaking after two years and reaching a plateau after five years

corporate tax avoidance and firm value abstract do corporate tax avoidance activities advance shareholder interests this paper tests alternative theories of corporate tax avoidance using unexplained differences between income reported to capital markets and to tax authorities ols estimates indicate that the effect of tax avoidance on firm value is a function of firm governance as predicted by an agency perspective on corporate tax avoidance instrumental variables estimates based on exogenous changes in tax regulations yield larger overall effects and reinforce the basic result as do several robustness checks the results suggest that the simple view of corporate tax avoidance as a transfer of resources from the state to shareholders is incomplete given the agency problems characterizing shareholder manager relations

the demand for international reserves and exchange rate adjustments thecase of ldcs 1964 1972 in this paper the relationship between the demand for international reserves and exchange rate adjustments is empirically investigated for agroup of ldc s it is shown that countries that have maintained a fixed exchange rate for a long period of time have a different demand function than countries that have occasionally used exchange rate adjustments for correcting payments imbalances the dynamics of the adjustment for both groupsof countries are also analyzed the results show that while both groups tend to eliminate reserve disequilibria fast those countries that have maintained a fixed rate tend to do it more slowly than countries that have occasionally devalued their currency it is also shown that the year prior to a devaluation international reserves have been on average 30 below their short run desired level these results are important since they indicate that not all ldc s should be aggregated for prediction purposes the results also have implications for the analysis of the adequacy of international reserves in less developed countries this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract wa this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

kalman filter approach to estimate the demand for international reserves a few studies have provided empirical support for the fact that the demand for international reserves experienced structural instability in 1973 and 1979 due to a change in exchange rate system and oil price shocks thus under the current managed float due to exchange rate and oil price fluctuations coefficient estimates could be time dependent after showing that indeed estimated coefficients are time dependent the kalman filter estimation method is employed and the reserve demand function for 19 industrial countries estimated the kalman filter approach incorporates the time varying properties of coefficients estimates

for a few dollars more reserves and growth in times of crises abstract based on a dataset of 112 emerging economies and developing countries this paper addresses the question whether the accumulation of international reserves has effectively protected countries during the 2008 09 financial crisis more specifically the paper investigates the relation between international reserves and the existence of capital controls we find that the level of reserves matters countries with high reserves relative to short term debt suffered less from the crisis particularly when associated with a less open capital account this suggests some degree of complementarity between reserve accumulation and capital controls

effects of exchange rate flexibility on the demand for international reserves abstract we incorporate a measure of exchange rate flexibility into the standard reserve demand equation and present empirical results for the 1976 1985 period which are consistent with the work of officer 1976 and frenkel and jovanovic 1981 indicating the existence of economies of scale and the demand for reserves

the interaction between indexation contract duration and non contingent wage adjustment a model of the elasticity of indexation contract duration and non contingent wage adjustment is estimated using canadian wage agreements results suggest that the degree of indexation and contract duration are interdependent and are affected by their past values labour market conditions and inflation uncertainty the correlation between the industry product prices and the cpi affects the degree of indexation non contingent wage adjustment depends on expected inflation uncompensated past inflation duration and indexation values past and present and labour market conditions this model explains total wage adjustment as well as more aggregative models designed solely for that purpose

menu costs and the neutrality of money a model of endogenous price adjustment under money growth is presented firms follow s s pricing policies and price revisions are imperfectly synchronized in the aggregate price stickiness disappears and money is neutral the connection between firm price adjustment and relative price variability in the presence of monetary growth is also investigated the results contrast with those obtained in models with exogenous fixed timing of price adjustment

applying the seasonal error correction model to the demand for international reserves in taiwan abstract a dynamic demand function for international reserves based on the seasonal difference is derived our model of using seasonal difference distinguishes the present study from previous studies in three aspects first the dependent variable is seasonally differenced instead of being first order differenced next the local money market disequilibrium included is also in fourth difference form finally given the existence of stochastic seasonality a new model using a seasonal error correction rather than the conventional error correction is specified and estimated based on this new specification the results yielded are more sensible than those of using a differenced model

austria s demand for international reserves and monetary disequilibrium the case of a small open economy with a fixed exchange rate regime using a vector error correction approach i estimate austria s demand for international reserves over the period 1985 1 1997 4 and test for short run effects of the disequilibrium on the national monetary market i find that austria s long run reserve demand can be described as a stable function of imports uncertainty and the opportunity cost of holding reserves with strong economies of scale the speed of adjustment takes a value of 38 per cent the results confirm that an excess of money demand supply induces an inflow outflow of international reserves as postulated by the monetary approach to the balance of payments

direct estimation of hidden earnings evidence from russian administrative data abstractwe employ unique administrative data from moscow to obtain a direct estimate of hidden incomes our approach is based on comparing employer reported earnings to market values of cars owned by the corresponding individuals and their households we detect few hidden earnings in most foreign owned firms and larger firms especially state owned enterprises in heavily regulated industries the same empirical strategy indicates that up to 80 percent of earnings of car owners in the private sector are hidden especially in smaller companies and industries such as trade and services where cash flows are easier to manipulate we also find considerable hidden earnings in government services our approach sheds new light on the decline in the gross domestic product gdp in russia after the collapse of communism and subsequent recovery in particular we argue that a good deal of these changes might represent changes in income reporting rather than actual changes in gdp

is there evidence of fear of appreciation in china s foreign exchange market intervention abstractusing the data after the exchange rate regime reform in july 2005 this paper systematically studied the issue whether china has conducted fear of appreciation asymmetric intervention th

a note on the optimal rate of growth of international reserves the current reform of the international monetary system rests on the conception that the nominal quantity of external reserves taken in the aggregate must provide the flexible element in the adjustment between the supply of and the demand for real international liquidity carried to its logical conclusion this principle implies the adoption of a passive money system in the international sphere the nominal quantity of money ceases to be an exogenous datum to which prices and wages must conform and becomes a dependent variable having an equilibrium level 1 the new reserve assets are destined to satisfy the long run needs for reserve growth 2 yet as is well known the evaluation of such needs presents appreciable difficulties in itself this estimation problem is not new it was explicitly discussed in the report of the gold delegation appointed in 1929 to examine the trends in the gold demand and supply the method used by the delegation is worth recalling it is based upon the double assumption that 1 the monetary demand for gold is proportional to the quantity of money and 2 the demand for money is proportional to the aggregate value of transactions the second part of this hypothesis reflects obviously the quantity theory in its classical form the first part expresses instead an institutional situation in those years the countries under the gold standard used to maintain by virtue of law or of convention a margin of gold cover against the total amount of notes and of central bank sight liabilities the combination of the two ratios led the delegation to estimate the need for gold reserves as a fixed proportion of the total value of transactions

shadow economies size causes and consequences using various methods the size of the shadow economy in 76 developing transition and oecd countries is estimated average size varies from 12 percent of gdp for oecd countries to 23 percent for transition countries and 39 percent for developing countries increasing taxation and social security contributions combined with rising state regulations are driving forces for the increase of the shadow economy especially in oecd countries according to some findings corruption has a positive impact on the size of the shadow economy and a growing shadow economy has a negative effect on official gdp growth

an empirical model of wage indexation provisions in union contracts this paper describes the responses of index linked wage rates to concurrent price increases for a sample of canadian union contracts and then analyzes theseresponses in terms of a simple model of indexation to the aggregate price level the model highlights the importance of aggregate price movements in conveying information about industry specific prices the empirical analysis confirms that industry specific correlations between input and output prices and the consumer price index are important determinants of the flexibility of wages to prices across indexed contracts

the effect of implicit contracts on the movement of wages over the business cycle evidence from micro data in this paper we address the question of whether wages are affected by labor market conditions in a manner more consistent with a contract approach than with a standard spot market model from a simple implicit contract model we derive implications about the links between wages and past labor market conditions using individual data from the current population survey and the panel study of income dynamics we find that an implicit contract model with costless mobility describes these links better than either a simple spot market model or an implicit contract model with costly mobility

a near rational model of the business cycle with wage and price inertia this paper presents a model in which insignificantly suboptimal behavior causes aggregate demand shocks to have significant real effects the individual loss to agents with inertial price wage behavior is second order in terms of the parameter describing the shock while the effect on real economic variables is first order thus significant changes in business activity can be generated by anticipated money supply changes provided that some agents are willing to engage in nonmaximizing behavior which results in small losses

wage contract settlements in u s manufacturing a bstruactusing a large scale longitudinal micro data base this paper tests for the determinants of union wage settlements in manufacturing alternative specifications of wage change relationships were tested in data covering the years 1957 to 1980 among the most important determinants of union wage changes were the expected inflation rate inflationary surprises in indexed agreements incomes policy dummy variables and spillovers from key national agreements catch up effects from lagged inflationary surprises were not important in determining the size of new settlements

tax rates and tax evasion evidence from missing imports in china tax evasion by its very nature is difficult to observe we quantify the effects of tax rates on tax evasion by examining the relationship in china between the tariff schedule and the evasion gap which we define as the difference between hong kong s reported exports to china at the product level and china s reported imports from hong kong our results imply that a one percentage point increase in the tax rate is associated with a 3 percent increase in evasion furthermore the evasion gap is negatively correlated with tax rates on closely related products suggesting that evasion takes place partly through misclassification of imports from higher taxed categories to lower taxed ones in addition to underreporting the value of imports

demand for international reserves survey of recent empirical studies in the last decade many countries have preferred to move to a system of managed floating that is intermediate between the extremes of fixed rates and a clean float since managing the float requires international reserves it is clear that the study of these reserves is as relevant today as it has been in the past there are at least six reviews of the literature relevant to this study clower and lipsey 1968 niehans 1970 salant 1970 grubel 1971 williamson 1973 and cohen 1975 the justification for writing this review is that since completion of the last survey many papers have appeared which contribute to the stock of knowledge in this field however unlike the previous reviews which have concentrated on the broader issues pertaining to international liquidity such as the demand for reserves the supply of reserves the composition and distribution of reserves etc this study focuses solely on surveying empirical studies bearing on the demand for international reserves this review wi

exchange rate policies in asia in an era of financial globalisation an empirical assessment ebbs and flows of capital have complicated macroeconomic policy management for all emerging market and developing economies emdes regardless of whether they have adopted flexible or managed exchange rate regimes in the light of the renewed interest in the trilemma versus dilemma debate we contribute to the related literature by presenting an empirical analysis of exchange rate flexibility and intervention for selected asian emdes over the time period 2001 2016 in addition to estimating augmented frankel wei regressions we employ a generalised auto regressive conditional heteroscedasticity garch model to assess the extent of foreign exchange fx intervention and whether there exist any asymmetries in the way countries intervene our results show that although there is greater flexibility in exchange rates there is evidence of some countries potentially using fx intervention to manage currency movements we also find evidence of asymmetry in intervention where exchange rate volatility responds more emphatically to fx sales than purchases

the square root law uncertainty and international reserves under alternative regimes canadian experience 1950 1976 abstract a transactions precautionary model of demand for international reserves is developed and tested against canadian data the results indicate that i the demand for reserves is characterized by economies of scale with respect to the volume of transactions that are invariant to the exchange rate regime but ii structural change took the form of a relatively larger responsiveness of reserves holdings under fixed rates to a measure of permanent variability in transactions

on the effect of opportunity cost on international reserve holdings the opportunity cost of holding international reserves plays a central role in all models of optimal demand for foreign exchange this cost is conventionally defined as the difference between the yield on reserves and the marginal productivity forgone from an alternative investment in fixed capital most empirical studies have failed to find a significant opportunity cost effect since none of them measure it in accordance with its theoretical definition the results for israel show that when this cost is measured properly it turns out to be a crucial determinant of reserve demand copyright 1992 by mit press

cost of living escalators in major union contracts this paper analyzes the price indexation provisions of a sample of major canadian collective bargaining agreements concluded between 1968 and 1975 under these contracts escalated wage increases comprised about one third of total wage increases and represented a major source of erosion in the relative wages of skilled workers the author argues that indexation provisions are usefully characterized by the marginal elasticity of the contractual wage rate to increases in prices measures of this responsiveness indicate that on average contractual wage rates are only slightly less than unit elastic with respect to price increases there is considerable variation across industries however in the extent to which wages respond to price changes

a traditional interpretation of macroeconomic fluctuations under the traditional interpretation of macroeconomic fluctuations aggregate demand shocks move output and prices in the same direction while aggregate supply shocks move output and prices in opposite directions this paper examines the joint behavior of u s output unemployment prices wages and nominal money and asks whether it is consistent with this interpretation the answer is a qualified yes

the value of the voting right a study of the milan stock exchange experience i study the large premium 82 percent attributed to voting shares on the milan stock exchange the premium varies according to the ownership structare and the concentration of the voting rights and it can be rationalized in the presence of enormous private benefits of control a case study seems to indicate that in italy private benefits of control can easily be worth more than 60 percent of the value of nonvoting equity a tentative explanation for these findings is provided traditional finance theory disregards the value of voting rights in pricing common stock in most cases this omission does not seem harmful many studies of differential voting stocks in different countries have indicated that voting rights are generally worth between 10 percent and 20 percent of the value of common stock the italian evidence i present differs sharply from this view in italy voting shares that have inferior dividend rights trade at an average premium

the optimal level of international reserves evidence for india abstract in india the reserve demand is predominantly determined by the opportunity cost than the reserve volatility which is in stark contrast to the overall evidence of the emerging market economies this can perhaps be attributed to relatively free inflow than outflow of capital

contracts job experience and cyclical labor market adjustments longitudinal estimates of the variability of individual wages hours and weeks worked over the course of changing demand states are provided for all workers generally and for workers of varied levels of job experience emphasis is placed on that part of job experience represented as years on current job a commonly used proxy for the magnitude of firm specific skills interpretation of resulting estimates in the context of the labor market contracting literature is attempted generally significant procyclical patterns are found for real weekly wages weekly hours and weeks worked the extent of weekly wage variability is much greater than is generally suggested in the literature furthermore workers with greater tenure exhibit greater cyclical wage and hours variability and less weeks variability finally empirical distinctions are drawn separately for white collar and blue collar as well as union and nonunion workers

a comment on the great canadian slump in this comment on fortin 1996 the authors argue that the sluggishness in economic activity in canada in the 1990s is better explained by a combination of factors than by monetary policy alone they find that 1 it is difficult to explain the sluggishness on the basis of the historical relationship between monetary conditions and real activity 2 fortin s evidence of downward nominal wage rigidity is seriously overstated 3 there are several reasons why technological change may have had a larger impact on employment in canada in the 1990s than in the united states and 4 the build up of government debt in the 1980s and 1990s was much more than a cyclical problem associated with monetary policy

why are wages cyclical in the 1970 s this article investigates cyclicality in real wages between 1969 and 1982 using panel study of income dynamics data there is little evidence that movements in and out of the labor market induced aggregate wage cyclicality during these years however cyclicality in the movement of workers between heterogeneous labor market sectors affected aggregate wage cyclicality while sector location is important sector selectivity is not correlated with wages yet even within sectors cyclicality is present in real wages over this time period and is the result of cyclicality in overall wage levels as well as in the coefficients associated with particular worker characteristics

what determines the value of corporate votes this paper studies the determinants of the value of voting rights in u s corporations results support the hypothesis that the price of a vote is determined by the expected additional payment vote holders will receive for their votes in case of a control contest the size of this differential payment is a function of the probability that a vote is pivotal in a control contest and the magnitude of the private benefits obtainable by controlling the company simple proxies for these two factors explain up to 30 percent of the variation of the voting premium across companies and through time my findings also suggest that the value of managerial perquisites are at least partially reflected in the price of votes

how does law affect finance an examination of equity tunneling in bulgaria abstract we model and test the mechanisms through which law affects tunneling and tunneling affects firm valuation in 2002 bulgaria adopted legal changes which limit equity tunneling through dilutive equity offerings and freezeouts following the changes minority shareholders participate equally in equity offerings where before they suffered severe dilution freezeout offer price ratios quadruple and tobin s q rises sharply for firms at high risk of tunneling the paper shows the importance of legal rules in limiting equity tunneling the role of equity tunneling risk as a factor in determining equity prices and substitution by controlling shareholders between different forms of tunneling

demand for international reserves and exchange rate intervention policy in an adjustable peg economy abstract this paper develops and estimates a model of the joint determination of the official and black market exchange rates private and government demand for international reserves and the rate of inflation under an adjustable peg system the framework presented combines and extends aspects of the monetary approach to the balance of payments and exchange rate determination with the theory of the demand for international reserves the role of expectations about devaluation is taken into account the model is estimated by full information maximum likelihood on the basis of quarterly data for turkey

collapsing exchange rate regimes some linear examples abstract we construct a pair of linear examples to study the collapse time of a fixed exchange rate regime the first example is a perfect foresight continuous time model which allows calculation of the exact collapse time and the tracking of reserves the second example is a discrete time stochastic model which yields an endogenous probability distribution over the collapse time and produces a forward discount of the exchange rate

small menu costs and large business cycles a macroeconomic model of monopoly i introduction the conflict between modern neoclassical and traditional keynesian theories of the business cycle centers upon the pricing mechanism in neoclassical models prices are fully flexible they represent the continuous optimization of economic agents and the continuous intersection of supply and demand in keynesian models prices are often assumed to be sticky they do not necessarily equilibrate all markets at all times one of the reasons for the resurgence of the equilibrium approach to macroeconomics has been the absence of a theoretical underpinning for this keynesian price stickiness this note shows that sticky prices can be both privately efficient and socially inefficient the business cycle results from the suboptimal adjustment of prices in response to a demand shock to the extent that policy can stabilize aggregate demand it can mitigate the social loss due to this suboptimal adjustment in some keynesian models prices are simply exogenously fixed 2 in others agents must set their prices in advance of the transaction date the act of altering a posted price is certainly costly these costs include such items as printing new catalogs and informing salesmen of the new price yet these menu costs are small and therefore generally perceived as providing only a weak foundation for these fixed price models however this inference is flawed small menu costs can cause large welfare losses the claim that price adjustment costs are small does not rebut the claim that they are central to understanding economic fluctuations

real wages and the business cycle the objectives of this review are threefold 1 to characterize the empirical literature on the cyclical behavior of real wages 2 to identify the sources of the differences in results across studies and 3 to enumerate key factors that determine the cyclicality of real wages given a host of measurement and methodological issues drawing firm conclusions is difficult but several generalizations can be made the estimated cyclicality of real wages depends crucially on the time period of analysis and the choice of whether to examine the production or the consumption wage composition effects play an important but complicated role as well

in search of a stylised fact do real wages exhibit a consistent pattern of cyclical variability the paper surveys the studies on the cyclical behaviour of real wages published from the twenties onwards the traditional simple neoclassical model of the labour market suggests that real wages tend to move countercyclically however from a theoretical viewpoint there are few reasons to expect this behaviour once the simple model is extended to account for imperfect competition uncertainty lagged responses or contracting between firms and workers empirical studies give different answers to the problem the contributions reviewed in the paper are arranged roughly in a chronological order the interwar period the postwar pre econometric studies the econometric work using aggregate data the evidence produced on the basis of longitudinal data the analyses of the shock responsiveness of real wages and finally the most recent papers attempting a reconciliation of the somewhat conflicting evidence derived from aggregate and panel data

nominal wage rigidity in contract data a parametric approach using wage agreements reached in the canadian unionized sector during 1976 99 a period of high as well as exceptionally low inflation we consider how histograms of wage adjustment changed as inflation reached the low levels of the 1990s the histograms and parametric tests suggest that wage adjustment is characterized by downward nominal rigidity and significant spikes at zero there is some evidence of modest menu cost effects we examine whether the rigidity features of wage adjustment are sensitive to indexation provisions and investigate whether the distinction between short and long contracts is useful

real business cycles in this paper we demonstrate how certain very ordinary economic principles lead maximizing individuals to choose consumption production plans that display many of the characteristics commonly associated with business cycles our explanation is entirely consistent with i rational expectations ii complete current information iii stable preferences iv no technological change v no long lived commodities vi no frictions or adjustment costs vii no government viii no money and ix no serial dependence in the stochastic elements of the environment we also provide a completely worked out example of the type of artificial economy we have in mind the time series properties of the example exhibit some major features of observed business cycles although this type of model may not be capable of explaining all of the regularities in actual business cycles we believe that it provides a useful well defined benchmark for assessing the relative importance of factors e g monetary disturbances