network models and financial stability abstract systemic risk is a key concern for central banks charged with safeguarding overall financial stability in this paper we investigate how systemic risk is affected by the structure of the financial system we construct banking systems that are composed of a number of banks that are connected by interbank linkages we then vary the key parameters that define the structure of the financial system including its level of capitalisation the degree to which banks are connected the size of interbank exposures and the degree of concentration of the system and analyse the influence of these parameters on the likelihood of knock on defaults first we find that the better capitalised banks are the more resilient is the banking system against contagious defaults and this effect is non linear second the effect of the degree of connectivity is non monotonic i e initially a small increase in connectivity increases the contagion effect but after a certain threshold value connectivity improves the ability of a banking system to absorb shocks third the size of interbank liabilities tends to increase the risk of knock on default even if banks hold capital against such exposures fourth more concentrated banking systems are shown to be prone to larger systemic risk all else equal in an extension to the main analysis we study how liquidity effects interact with banking structure to produce a greater chance of systemic breakdown we finally consider how the risk of contagion might depend on the degree of asymmetry tiering inherent in the structure of the banking system a number of our results have important implications for public policy which this paper also draws out

sulfur dioxide control by electric utilities what are the gains from trade title iv of the 1990 clean air act amendments caaa established a market for transferable sulfur dioxide so2 emission allowances among electric utilities this market offers firms facing high marginal abatement costs the opportunity to purchase the right to emit so2 from firms with lower costs and this is expected to yield cost savings compared to a command and control approach to environmental regulation this paper uses econometrically estimated marginal abatement cost functions for power plants affected by title iv of the caaa to evaluate the performance of the so2 allowance market specifically we investigate whether the much heralded fall in the cost of abating so2 compared to original estimates can be attributed to allowance trading we demonstrate that for plants that use low sulfur coal to reduce so2 emissions technical change and the fall in prices of low sulfur coal have lowered marginal abatement cost curves by over 50 percent since 1985 the flexibility to take advantage of these chan

high tech firms and credit rationing abstract informational frictions between borrowers and lenders differ across classes of borrowers innovative firms undertake high risk high return projects which are likely to be little understood by financial intermediaries as a consequence they may end up allocating too large a share of funds to traditional low risk low return projects this proposition finds some support in a cross section of italian manufacturing firms using several proxies to classify firms into high tech and low tech groups and direct information on each firm s access to bank credit high tech firms are found to be more likely to be credit constrained than low tech firms the results suggest that the responsiveness of r d expenditure to cash flow found in the literature is likely due to pervasive credit constraints on innovative firms rather than to cash flow proxying for future expectations the paper also sheds light on the main factors affecting the probability of a firm being rationed in the credit market

a model of the topology of the bank firm credit network and its role as channel of contagion this paper proposes a stochastic model of a bipartite credit network between banks and the non bank corporate sector that encapsulates basic stylized facts found in comprehensive data sets for bank firm loans for a number of countries when performing computational experiments with this model we find that it shows a pronounced non linear behavior under shocks the default of a single unit will mostly have practically no knock on effects but might lead to an almost full scale collapse of the entire system in a certain number of cases the dependency of the overall outcome on firm characteristics like size or number of loans seems fuzzy distinguishing between contagion due to interbank credit and due to joint exposures to counterparty risk via loans to firms the later channel appears more important for contagious spread of defaults

power laws in economics an introduction paul samuelson 1969 was once asked by a physicist for a law in economics that was both nontrivial and true this is a difficult challenge as many roughly true results are in the end rather trivial for example demand curves slope down while many nontrivial results in economics in fact require too much sophistication and rationality on the part of the agents to actually hold true in practice 1 samuelson answered the law of comparative advantage the story does not say whether the physicist was satisfied the law of comparative advantage is a qualitative law and not a quantitative one as is the rule in physics indeed many of the insights of economics seem to be qualitative with many fewer reliable

determinants and consequences of land reform implementation in the philippines abstract unlike the experience of other developing countries land reform in the philippines has been successful in converting many of share tenants to land reform beneficiaries this study indicates that the implementation of land reform is positively associated with yield growth made possible by the adoption of modern seed fertilizer technology a major reason underlying such association is considered to be an increased economic interest of tenants in land reform arising from divergence of rental value of land from leasehold rent and amortization fees prescribed by law

electricity in europe exiting fossil fuels there are many options for generating electricity with low carbon emissions and the elec trification of heat and transport can decarbonize energy use across the economy this places the power sector at the forefront of any move away from fossil fuels even though fossil fuelled generators are more dependable and flexible than nuclear reactors or intermittent renewables and vital for the second by second balancing of supply and demand renewables tend to supplement rather than replace fos sil capacity although output from fossil fuelled stations will fall and some will have to retire to avoid depressing wholesale power prices at times of low demand and high renewable output prices can turn negative but electricity storage long distance interconnection and flexible demand may develop to absorb any excess generation simulations for great britain show that while coal may be eliminated from the mix within a decade natural gas has a long term role in stations with or without carbon cap ture and storage depending on its cost and the price of carbon

new ways of looking at old issues inequality and growth abstract the paper uses new cross country data on income and asset land distribution to show that i there is a strong negative relationship between initial inequality in the asset distribution and long term growth ii inequality reduces income growth for the poor but not for the rich and iii available longitudinal data provide little support for the kuznets hypothesis policies that increase aggregate investment and facilitate acquisition of assets by the poor might thus be doubly beneficial for growth and poverty reduction

the structure of multiple credit relationships evidence from u s firms when firms borrow from multiple concentrated creditors such as banks they appear to differentiate their allocation of borrowing in this paper we put forward hypotheses for this borrowing pattern based on incomplete contract theories and test them using a sample of small u s firms we find that firms with more valuable and more homogeneous assets differentiate borrowing more sharply across concentrated creditors moreover borrowing differentiation is inversely related to restructuring costs and positively related to firms informational transparency the results suggest that the structure of credit relationships is used to discipline creditors and entrepreneurs especially during corporate reorganizations

covenants and collateral as incentives to monitor although monitoring borrowers is thought to be a major function of financial institutions the presence of other claimants reduces an institutional lender s incentives to do this thus loan contracts must be structured to enhance the lender s incentives to monitor covenants make a loan s effective maturity and the ability to collateralize makes a loan s effective priority contingent on monitoring by the lender thus both covenants and collateral can be motivated as contractual devices that increase a lender s incentive to monitor these results are consistent with a number of stylized facts about the use of covenants and collateral in institutional lending modern finance theory suggests that financial intermediaries such as commercial banks insurance companies and finance companies monitor and control their borrowers on behalf of other investors 1 this article investigates how the loans made by these institutions can be structured so as to best enhance the institutions role as delegated monitors covenants and collateral are common features of loans made by financial institutions but these features are somewhat difficult to justify consider loan covenants clauses in a loan contract that require the borrower to take or refrain from various actions berlin and mester 1992 magee and sridhar 1994 and park 1994 show that by giving institutions the right to renegotiate or call loans when covenants are violated covenants serve as tripwires that enhance the flexibility and efficiency of financial contracting also as documented in smith and warner 1979 control rights from covenants reduce borrower adverse selection or moral hazard nevertheless by allowing institutions to demand repayment based on any information contractible or not

electricity and markets over the last fifteen years an increasing number of electricity industries have replaced vertical integration with markets as the main method of organising production electrical energy is traded in many european and us markets while the us also has markets for generating capacity us generators can reduce the cost of complying with environmental regulations by trading emissions of sulphur dioxide while europe has just started a carbon dioxide emissions trading scheme this article discusses the way in which these markets put economic principles into practice in particular it shows that several different market designs can provide theoretically equivalent incentives for generators to build capacity and that emissions trading may have unexpected impacts upon electricity prices

should we track migrant households when collecting household panel data household relocation economic mobility and attrition biases in the rural philippines based on household panel data that tracked migrant households with an additional survey cost of 17 percent this article describes behavior of household relocation and quantifies the extent of attrition biases in estimating the determinants of percapita household consumption and of its growth rate many households relocate for non economic reasons and to rural destinations while the small number of urban migrants improved their wellbeing faster than did others such heterogeneity among migrants may be a reason behind the negligible attrition biases caused by the omission of migrants in the inference on the average behavioral coefficients among the original population

a network analysis of the italian overnight money market the objective of this paper is to analyse the network topology of the italian segment of the european overnight money market through methods of statistical mechanics applied to complex networks we investigate differences in the activities of banks of different sizes and the evolution of their connectivity structure over the maintenance period the main purpose of the analysis is to establish the potential implications of the current institutional arrangements on the stability of the banking system and to assess the efficiency of the interbank market in terms of absence of speculative and preferential trading relationships

the mdgs and exit time the case of the philippines this article evaluates whether the philippines will be able to halve the incidence of poverty between 1990 and 2015 using the concept of exit time and household level data we find that the philippines as a whole will not be able to comply with target 1 of the millennium development goals mdgs although 15 of its provinces will be able to do so these provinces are closer to manila characterized by higher per capita expenditure growth rates and had lower incidence of poverty in 1988 this suggests the importance of policies to mitigate the regional disparity in achieving the mdgs

financial intermediation and delegated monitoring this paper develops a theory of financial intermediation based on minimizing the cost of monitoring information which is useful for resolving incentive problems between borrowers and lenders it presents a characterization of the costs of providing incentives for delegated monitoring by a financial intermediary diversification within an intermediary serves to reduce these costs even in a risk neutral economy the paper presents some more general analysis of the effect of diversification on resolving incentive problems in the environment assumed in the model debt contracts with costly bankruptcy are shown to be optimal the analysis has implications for the portfolio structure and capital structure of intermediaries

going beyond crosscountry averages growth inequality and poverty reduction in the philippines summary this paper analyzes the processes of growth and poverty reduction simultaneously under a neoclassical growth model framework using provincial data from the philippines we obtain a high rate of provincial income convergence and a tradeoff between equity and growth the lack of political competition inhibits growth land reform is positively associated with growth and poverty reduction while higher agricultural terms of trade facilitate poverty reduction the growth elasticity of poverty reduction is low by international standards but is sensitive to sectoral income composition and initial conditions in poverty incidence mortality rate and irrigation coverage

illiquidity component of credit risk we describe and contrast three dierent measures of an institu tion s credit risk insolvency risk is the conditional probability of default due to deterioration of asset quality if there is no run by short term creditors total credit risk is the unconditional probability of default either because of a short term creditor run or long run asset insolvency illiquidity risk is the dierence between the two i e the probability of a default due to a run when the institution would otherwise have been solvent we discuss how the three kinds of risk vary with balance sheet composition we provide a formula for illiquidity risk and show that it is i decreasing in the liquidity ratio the ratio of realizable cash on the balance sheet to short term liabilities ii increasing in the outside option ratio a measure of the opportunity cost of the funds used to roll over short term liabil ities and iii increasing in the fundamental risk ratio a measure of ex post variance of the asset portfolio

growth inequality and politics revisited a developing country case abstract key issues in the empirical study on growth are addressed using provincial data in the philippines we find a high rate of absolute convergence a positive relationship between inequality and growth and a positive relationship between political competitiveness and growth

the future of fossil fuels is it the end contrary to the assumptions underlying many of current energy and climate policies the prices of fossil fuels have fallen and may remain at the new normal levels in the medium term iran and iraq have considerable potential to increase their outputs and the new shale technologies will gradually globalize longer term new technologies in electricity generation storage and smart demand side technologies together with electric cars and the shift towards digitalization and new electricity based technologies in manufacturing will increase demand for electricity but not fossil fuels these new and emerging technologies rather than international agreements and the promotion of current generation renewables will probably bring fossil fuel dominance to a gradual close to facilitate decarbonization energy policy should be directed at enhancing r d and next generation renewables instead of supporting existing ones

credit and efficiency in centralized and decentralized economies we study a credit model where because of adverse selection unprofitable projects may nevertheless be financed indeed they may continue to be financed even when shown to be low quality if sunk costs have already been incurred we show that credit decentralization offers a way for creditors to commit not to refinance such projects thereby discouraging entrepreneurs from undertaking them initially thus decentralization provides financial discipline nevertheless we argue that it puts too high a premium on short term returns the model seems pertinent to two issues soft budget constraint problems in centralized economies and differences between anglo saxon and german japanese financing practices

optimal debt structure and the number of creditors within an optimal contracting framework we analyze the optimal number of creditors a company borrows from we also analyze the optimal allocation of security interests among creditors and intercreditor voting rules that govern renegotiation of debt contracts the key to our analysis is the idea that these aspects of the debt structure affect the outcome of debt renegotiation following a default debt structures that lead to inefficient renegotiation are beneficial in that they deter default but they are also costly if default is beyond a manager s control the optimal debt structure balances these effects we characterize how the optimal debt structure depends on firm characteristics such as its technology its credit rating and the market for its assets

on intermittent renewable generation the stability of australia s national electricity market abstract energy only markets have an inherently unstable equilibrium even under ideal conditions because participants are unable to optimise voll events the addition of intermittent renewable generation is thought to make conditions harder in this article optimal voll events in an islanded nem region is modelled by substituting high price caps for boiteux capacity charges then analysing the impact of adding progressively more variable renewable energy vre up to 35 market share spot market conditions prove stable and tractable provided thermal plant exit and adjust perfectly but vre asset allocation is important absent highly elastic demand or ultra low cost storage solar pv market share has economic limits because the technology rapidly cannibalises itself furthermore as vre rises in imperfectly interconnected regions a tipping point appears to exist where hedge markets enter an unstable zone through shortages of asset backed firm intra regional swaps and caps government initiated cfds for vre need to be designed carefully to ensure any instability is not exacerbated by extracting contracts from an already shortening hedge market

information sharing in credit markets we present a model with adverse selection where information sharing between lenders arises endogenously lenders incentives to share information about borrowers are positively related to the mobility and heterogeneity of borrowers to the size of the credit market and to advances in information technology such incentives are instead reduced by the fear of competition from potential entrants in addition information sharing increases the volume of lending when adverse selection is so severe that safe borrowers drop out of the market these predictions are supported by international and historical evidence in the context of the consumer credit market a large body of literature on credit markets has shown that asymmetric information may prevent the efficient allocation of lending leading to credit rationing e g jaffee and russell 1976 stiglitz and weiss 1981 or to a wedge between lending and borrowing rates e g king 1986 in this literature informational asymmetries are taken to be exogenous lenders fail to observe some relevant characteristic or action of potential borrowers and have no way of learning about it in some countries however lenders can improve their knowledge about new customers by exchanging information with other lenders through information brokers generally known as credit bureaus the latter collect file and distribute the information voluntarily supplied by their members and operate on the principle of reciprocity lenders who do not provide data are denied access to the bureau s files in other countries instead these institutions do not exist the literature offers no guide to identify the factors that lead to endogenous communication between lenders this paper is an attempt to fill the gap information sharing is important for a number of reasons it may increase the degree of competitiveness within credit markets vives 1990 improve

multiple versus single banking relationships theory and evidence a theory of the optimal number of banking relationships is developed and tested using matched bank firm data according to the theory relationship banks may be unable to continue funding profitable projects owing to internal problems and a firm may thus have to refinance from nonrelationship banks the latter however face an adverse selection problem as they do not know the quality of the project and may refuse to lend in these circumstances multiple banking can reduce the probability of an early liquidation of the project the empirical evidence supports the predictions of the model

measuring the progress and impacts of decarbonising british electricity abstract britain s ambitious carbon targets require that electricity be immediately and aggressively decarbonised so it is reassuring to report that electricity sector emissions have fallen 46 in the three years to june 2016 their lowest since 1960 this paper analyses the factors behind this fall and the impacts they are having the main drivers are demand falling 1 3 per year due to efficiency gains and mild winters gas doubling its share to 60 of fossil generation due to the carbon price floor and the dramatic uptake of wind solar and biomass which now supply up to 45 of demand accounting conventions also play their part imported electricity and biomass would add 5 and 2 to emissions if they were included the pace of decarbonisation is impressive but raises both engineering and economic challenges falling peak demand has delayed fears of capacity shortage but minimum net demand is instead becoming a problem the headroom between inflexible nuclear and intermittent renewables is rapidly shrinking with controllable output reaching a minimum of just 5 9 gw as solar output peaked at 7 1 gw 2015 also saw britain s first negative power prices the highest winter peak prices for six years and the highest balancing costs

the number and the closeness of bank relationships abstract we analyze a firm s optimal choice over the number of creditors and the extent of information disclosed to them by dealing with many creditors and disclosing essential confidential information a firm can keep its cost of credit low this however is associated with a relatively high probability that valuable information leaks to competitors leading to lower expected net returns from product market operations the importance of these two countervailing effects varies with size time industry and the form of the financial sector which yields a number of empirically testable hypotheses

a critique of jacobson and delucchi s proposals for a world renewable energy supply abstract jacobson and delucchi have recently put forward a detailed case in support of the claim that renewable energy sources can meet total world energy demand the following argument is that this proposal is unsatisfactory primarily because it does not deal effectively with the problems set by the variability of renewable energy sources and also because its analysis of investment costs is inadequate