dynamics and seasonality in quarterly panel data this article presents an empirical analysis of the dynamics of individual earnings using spanish quarterly earnings i propose a new econometric methodology to control for the seasonality in my dataset moreover i apply this methodology to the study of earnings mobility in spain using transition probabilities among earnings quintiles for the period 1985 1996 i find substantial mobility from one year to the next however earnings changes are basically among adjacent quintiles workers with university education are more mobile than workers with primary and secondary education on the other hand i observe greater negative mobility among earnings quintiles and more persistence of low earnings situations in the 1990s especially for workers with primary education

government fertilizer subsidy and commercial sector fertilizer demand evidence from the federal market stabilization program fmsp in nigeria abstract we examine how the previous fertilizer subsidy program in nigeria fmsp affected the demand for commercial fertilizer we apply an endogenous double hurdle model to a pseudo panel and cross section data of farm households the methodology accounts for potential endogeneity of commercial fertilizer price with subsidy our specification is also appropriate where few farmers report the use of both subsidized and commercial fertilizer we find that 100 kg of subsidized fertilizer supplied to a farm household reduced the probability of its participation into commercial fertilizer market by 10 21 points while not affecting fertilizer use upon participation

the cyclicality of the user cost of labor abstract the user cost of labor is the expected difference between the present discounted value of wages paid to a worker hired in the current period and that paid to a worker hired in the next period analogous to the price of any long term asset the user cost not wage is the relevant price for a firm that is considering adding a worker i construct its counterpart in the data and estimate that it is substantially more procyclical than average wages or wages of newly hired workers i demonstrate an application of the finding using the textbook search and matching model

real wages in the business cycle and the theory of income distribution an unresolved conflict between theory and facts in mainstream macroeconomics the focus of this article is the recurring tension between mainstream macroeconomics and observed facts in connection with the difficult task of providing explanations of the business cycle consistent both with the traditional theory of income distribution and with the empirical evidence concerning the co movements of real wages and employment over the cycle the attempts to reconcile facts and theory have led to the continuous introduction of specific and arguably ad hoc hypotheses in contrast with the search for greater theoretical rigour claimed by the various streams of macroeconomic modelling subsequent to the neo classical synthesis in addition the specific assumptions introduced in the models or their implications are in turn often contradicted or at best not confirmed by subsequent empirical research it is suggested in the conclusions that the difficulty of keeping together in a simple and consistent framework theory and facts reflects the flawed theoretical foundations of mainstream theory

fertilizer use risk and off farm labor markets in the semi arid tropics of india a two period model is developed in which a risk averse farmer uses off farm labor to smooth consumption leading to greater use of fertilizer fertilizer demand is shown to increase with the depth of the off farm labor market controlling for exogenous weather risk farmers use more fertilizer the lower the unemployment rate and the higher the share of nonagricultural work in total off farm labor the results suggest that off farm labor markets and own farm production may be complementary in risky production environments so that policies which promote the depth of the off farm labor market in low income areas may also bolster farm productivity copyright 2003 oxford university press

liberalization of agricultural input markets in bangladesh process impact and lessons abstract the study takes a historical perspective to trace the path of evolutionary reforms in agricultural input markets of bangladesh it estimates the magnitude of the impact of these reforms on rice production the most important crop in bangladesh agriculture it is estimated that the production of rice could have been 20 32 lower than the level of 1992 1993 depending on the rice price that would have prevailed under alternative scenarios the 20 credit to market reform relates to a real rice price level 19 higher than the actual 1992 1993 prices the 32 credit to reform relates to the actual 1992 1993 price levels the lower contribution of reform 20 to increased production implies a loss to consumers not accounted for in the production benefit of reform while the higher contribution 32 of reform entails no loss to consumers the bottom line conclusion is that bangladesh without the market reforms described in the paper would have reverted back to the situation of regular food crisis and high rice prices as was the case historically the analysis of the process of reform provides interesting lessons for developing countries a gradual process based on a well designed sequencing of various steps of market reform particularly in the case of fertilizer was a crucial factor for success careful monitoring during the period of transition is another crucial factor that has to be institutionalized in the system second generation problems of market reforms particularly the emergence of an oligopolistic market structure are possible and warrant a cautionary watch

real myths and a monetary fact in their paper business cycles real facts and a monetary myth kydland and prescott federal reserve bank of minneapolis quarterly review 14 1990 present a series of statistics generated by using the hodrick prescott filter which they define as the business cycle facts prescott federal reserve bank of minneapolis quarterly review 10 1986 argued that the facts are immune to the method of detrending however even if we use the hodrick prescott filter we can get a set of facts that differ in important ways from those in kydland and prescott 1990 in particular we can generate the conventional wisdom that real wages are acyclical very different relative volatilities of consumption investment and output and m1 leading the cycle in addition we note that the other important fact generated by kydland and prescott the countercyclicality of prices was not actually a new result

procyclical labour productivity a closer look at a stylized fact at 4 digit united states manufacturing industry level we find evidence suggesting that the stylized fact of procyclical labour productivity should be treated with great caution we use the nber manufacturing productivity database to investigate the relationship between hourly labour productivity and real output for 450 industries for the years 1958 91 labour productivity is significantly procyclical in 63 of industries and acyclical in 36 in the latter respect a high proportion of investment goods industries display acyclical productivity cross section regressions are carried out that seek to explain the interindustry distribution of cyclicality the analysis attributes a significant role to variations in materials costs as a proxy for fluctuations in factor utilization

the cyclicality of real wages within employer employee matches using data from the panel study of income dynamics the author examines the cyclicality of wages within employer employee matches for the years 1970 91 recent research on wage cyclicality has suggested that wages are very procyclical tending to rise and fall with economic upturns and downturns even for workers who remain with the same employer the author finds however that the evidence for wage procyclicality within the matches he examines is rather weak except for the small group of workers who were paid by piece rate or commissions despite having acyclical wage rates men who were paid hourly had earnings movements that were very procyclical salaries exhibited little cyclicality but salaried workers who had income sources from bonuses commissions or overtime had procyclical earnings the results suggest that the increasing prevalence of incentive based pay will increase the procyclicality of wages within matches

how high are rates of return to fertilizer evidence from field experiments in kenya the idea that peasant farmers are rational profit maximizers has been a staple of development economics since theodore schultz 1964 it has also been influential in shaping policy for example agricultural experts have stressed the importance of fertilizer use in raising agricultural yields pointing to impressive results on experimental farms and to huge differences in agricultural productivity across countries with different levels of fertilizer use robert evenson and douglas gollin 2003 historically many countries subsidized fertilizer in response but economists have been skeptical of claims that farmers are leaving money on the table noting that fertilizer may not have the same returns on real world farms as on experimental farms that returns to fertilizer may be low for many farmers even if they are high on average tavneet suri 2007 that fertilizer may require complementary inputs or may be risky many countries have withdrawn or scaled back fertilizer psychology and development theory and experimental evidence

rental markets for cultivated land and agricultural investments in china the purpose of this paper is to empirically track the progress and consequences of the emergence of cultivated land markets in china since 2000 we draw on a set of nationwide household level panel data for 2000 and 2008 and find that the markets for cultivated land rental have emerged robustly according to our data 19 of china s cultivated land was rented in farm operators in 2008 we also find that the nature of china s cultivated land rental contracts has become more formal and lengthened the period of time that the tenant is able to cultivate the rented in plots while there may be benefits for lessors and tenants our data show that there are falling rates of investment in organic manure the farmers in our sample have reduced organic manure use from 13 tons ha in 2000 to 5 tons ha in 2008 part of this fall is due to the rise of cultivated land rental markets the analysis however does not find that improved property rights in cultivated land rental affect investment largely because property rights have largely been established by 2000 the first year of our sample our results however also show that there are forces that appear to be mitigating the negative consequences of rising cultivated land rental after holding constant initial rental rates and other factors we find that the gap between investment in organic manure in own land and rented in land is narrowing one interpretation of our findings is that if policymakers can find ways to even further strengthen the rights of lessors and tenants as well as lengthen contract periods farmerseven those that rentwill invest more in their land because they will be able to capture the returns to their investments

illicit drug use unemployment and occupational attainment in this paper we use data from the british crime survey bcs to examine the effect of illicit drug use on labour market outcomes we find very little evidence to support any relationship between drug use hard or soft and occupational attainment however we find compelling evidence to suggest that drug use particularly the use of opiates cocaine and crack cocaine is associated with an increased risk of unemployment regardless of age or gender

do input subsidy programs crowd in or crowd out commercial market development modeling fertilizer demand in a two channel marketing system many governments in developing countries distribute fertilizer at subsidized prices in an effort to stimulate small farmers agricultural productivity and food security prior fertilizer demand studies have largely failed to account for the effects of government programs on farmers commercial purchases using a double hurdle model and nationally representative rural household panel data in zambia we distinguish between these sources and measure the contemporaneous crowding in and crowding out effects of government input programs on commercial fertilizer sales where the private sector is relatively active and average wealth is higher areas seemingly more likely to be targeted by government programs results indicate that subsidies have substantially crowded out the private sector in some cases to the point that such programs could actually lower overall fertilizer use on the other hand in poorer areas where the private sector is relatively inactive subsidies help to generate demand and crowd in private sector retailers empirical studies explicitly modeling farmers fertilizer purchase behavior within a dual marketing framework can provide important insights for agricultural policy discussions in developing countries

in search of a stylised fact do real wages exhibit a consistent pattern of cyclical variability the paper surveys the studies on the cyclical behaviour of real wages published from the twenties onwards the traditional simple neoclassical model of the labour market suggests that real wages tend to move countercyclically however from a theoretical viewpoint there are few reasons to expect this behaviour once the simple model is extended to account for imperfect competition uncertainty lagged responses or contracting between firms and workers empirical studies give different answers to the problem the contributions reviewed in the paper are arranged roughly in a chronological order the interwar period the postwar pre econometric studies the econometric work using aggregate data the evidence produced on the basis of longitudinal data the analyses of the shock responsiveness of real wages and finally the most recent papers attempting a reconciliation of the somewhat conflicting evidence derived from aggregate and panel data

nominal wage rigidity in contract data a parametric approach using wage agreements reached in the canadian unionized sector during 1976 99 a period of high as well as exceptionally low inflation we consider how histograms of wage adjustment changed as inflation reached the low levels of the 1990s the histograms and parametric tests suggest that wage adjustment is characterized by downward nominal rigidity and significant spikes at zero there is some evidence of modest menu cost effects we examine whether the rigidity features of wage adjustment are sensitive to indexation provisions and investigate whether the distinction between short and long contracts is useful

are there election cycles in wage agreements an analysis of german public employees in this article the possibility of nordhaus political wage cyclesin the west german public services during 1961 1965 is investigated since wage negotiations are centralized one might expect a systematicallyhigher wage increase shortly before a federal election a regression ofwage increases from 30 consecutive public sector pay contracts is run onan election variable and several additional explanatory variables thenull of no election influence is rejected for worker wage increases theestimated increase in wages due to an imminent election is predicted to bein the range of 2 5 to 3 percentage points

spot market wages implicit contracts and technological change skill level evidence from finland this article investigates the relevance of the theories of implicit contracts and spot market model to the skill level wages in finland we use linked worker firm panel data over the period from 1991 to 2004 which included major institutional and technological changes we find similar patterns in the wage flexibility of primary and highly educated workers their wages increased with the decreasing spot market unemployment rate after the eu membership still exhibiting some weak backward linkages the wages of the secondary educated did not follow the decreasing spot market unemployment but instead some signs of the full commitment risk sharing were found

input subsidy programs in sub saharan africa a synthesis of recent evidence input subsidy programs have once again become a major plank of agricultural development strategies in africa ten african governments spend roughly us 1 billion annually on input subsidy programs isps amounting to 28 6 of their public expenditures on agriculture this article reviews the microlevel evidence on isps undertaken since the mid 2000s we examine the characteristics of subsidy beneficiaries crop response rates to fertilizer application and their influence on the performance of subsidy programs the impacts of subsidy programs on national fertilizer use and the development of commercial input distribution systems and finally the impact of isps on food price levels and poverty rates the weight of the evidence indicates that the costs of the programs generally outweigh their benefits findings from other developing areas with a higher proportion of crop area under irrigation and with lower fertilizer prices factors that should provide higher returns to fertilizer subsidies than in africa indicate that at least a partial reallocation of expenditures from fertilizer subsidies to r d and infrastructure would provide higher returns to agricultural growth and poverty reduction however because isps enable governments to demonstrate tangible support to constituents they are likely to remain on the african landscape for the foreseeable future hence the study identifies ways in which benefits can be enhanced through changes in implementation modalities and complementary investments within a holistic agricultural intensification strategy among the most important of these are efforts to reduce the crowding out of commercial fertilizer distribution systems and programs to improve soil fertility to enable farmers to use fertilizer more efficiently the challenges associated with achieving these gains are likely to be formidable

custom hired tractor services and returns to scale in smallholder agriculture a production function approach historically agricultural transformation has often accompanied the increase in the returns to scale little direct evidence exists however on what actually causes such increase despite the knowledge of many factors that are associated with this increase we fill this knowledge gap by testing whether hiring in tractor services has raised returns to scale in agriculture at the household level in nepal terai that has undergone rapid growth in the tractor use through custom hiring services using switching regression and inverse probability weighted generalized method of moments we address two sources of endogeneity involved with the estimation of returns to scale 1 farmers self selection on whether to hire in tractor services and 2 use of inputs in the production function for both cobb douglas and translog production function specifications we find that hiring in tractor services significantly increased the returns to scale in agricultural production by about 0 2 0 3 among farm households not owning tractors for which suitable control groups are found findings are robust under various alternative specifications

why are the wages of job changers so procyclical evidence on wage cyclicality shows job changers have more procyclical wages than job stayers previous work argued this arises because workers gain greater access to jobs in sectors such as manufacturing that offer high wages this article argues that workers who switch jobs in booms enter temporary jobs with unemployment risk and are merely compensated for subsequent losses i demonstrate that the two explanations can be distinguished using the relationship between unemployment insurance and wage cyclicality among job changers the evidence supports the compensation hypothesis that is that job changers might not experience real gains from higher paying jobs in booms

participation in marijuana cocaine and heroin consumption in australia a multivariate probit approach this article investigates factors affecting the participation in marijuana cocaine and heroin using micro unit data from an australian national survey on recreational drugs accounting for cross drug correlation potentially induced by unobserved personal characteristics such as individual tastes and addictive personalities we estimate a trivariate probit model where the participation decisions are jointly modelled as a system with correlated error terms the estimated correlation coefficients are significant across all three drugs the study provides valuable empirical information on conditional and joint probabilities of drug participation the multivariate approach is shown to provide better analysis relative to a univariate approach that does not address the endogeneity of all drug participation variables

the cyclicality of consumption wages and employment of the public sector in the euro area this study empirically examines the business cycle behaviour of public consumption and its main components the public wage bill including its breakdown into compensation per employee and public employment and intermediate consumption in the euro area aggregate euro area countries and a group of selected non euro area organization for economic co operation and development oecd countries denmark sweden the uk japan and the us it looks across a large number of variables and methods using annual data from 1960 to 2005 it finds robust evidence supporting that public consumption wages and employment co move with the business cycle in a pro cyclical manner with 1 2 year lags notably for the euro area aggregate and euro area countries the findings reflect mainly the correlation between cyclical developments but also point to an important role of pro cyclical discretionary fiscal policies

the voracity effect abstract we analyze an economy that lacks a strong legal political institutional infrastructure and is populated by multiple powerful groups powerful groups dynamically interact via a fiscal process that effectively allows open access to the aggregate capital stock in equilibrium this leads to slow economic growth and a voracity effect by which a shock such as a terms of trade windfall perversely generates a more than proportionate increase in fiscal redistribution and reduces growth we also show that a dilution in the concentration of power leads to faster growth and a less procyclical response to shocks jel f43 o10 o23 o40

the analytics of svars a unified framework to measure fiscal multipliers ticities implied by the identification schemes generate a large dispersion in the estimates of tax and spending multipliers second i estimate fiscal multipliers consistent with prior distributions of the elasticities computed by a variety of empirical strategies and by employing a simple dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model i document three findings for the u s for the period 1947 2010 first the impact tax multiplier is close to 0 second the impact spending multiplier ranges between 0 35 and 1 third there is a large uncertainty in the estimates of fiscal multipliers at longer horizons yet the probability that the spending multiplier is larger than the tax multiplier is above 0 65 for up to three years after policy interventions

modeling the impact of agricultural growth and government policy on income distribution in india this article uses a limited general equilibrium model to investigate the growth and equity effects of a variety of economic and technical changes and selected agricultural policies in india it explores how changes in food prices rural wages and farm profits associated with the green revolution period affected income distribution between net buyers and sellers of food the model shows that income gains from the green revolution initially accrued to the wealthier rural groups but that after 1972 73 they were transferred to urban consumers and that by 1980 81 the per capita incomes of poor and wealthier rural groups alike were barely above their respective 1960 61 levels the model is also used in counterfactual analysis of the impact of changes in technological demographic investment taxation and income redistribution variables its findings indicate the importance of trade policies for the nature of the equity outcomes from agricultural growth and suggest that a reduction in population growth and an increase in nonagricultural employment and income are required to convert agricultural growth into reduced rural poverty

robust stylized facts on comovement for the spanish economy the suggestion of obtaining stylized facts on comovement on the basis of prewhitened time series proposed in andre et al 2002 is further developed first some examples are shown on the robustness of the method second the relevance of such a proposal is tested by revisiting some of the existing stylized facts on comovement for the spanish economy in dolado et al 1993

modern input promotion in sub saharan africa insights from asian green revolution using case materials from four major cereal growing countries in asia bangladesh india indonesia and pakistan the article analyzes key aspects of agricultural input policies in asia results suggest that asian policies differ from the current wave of african input subsidy programs in three important ways i instead of focusing mostly on seed and chemical fertilizer input promotion in asia involved a package approach involving investments in agricultural rd ii farmers in three of four countries paid higher prices net taxed for fertilizer during the height of the green revolution suggesting that it was the profitability not the subsidy that was central to increasing fertilizer use and iii asian countries did not target input subsidies but given leakage and diversion estimates of targeted programs it is unclear whether targeting would have been more cost effective both continents have two challenges in common degradation of soil health and increasingly larger shares of public spending on input subsidies the first challenge calls for paying attentions to improving fertilizer use efficiency which is an achievable target with high pay off in the long run the other challenge is now a historical fact that is once introduced subsidies are hard to eliminate even if they no longer contribute to agricultural productivity growth

effects of tractor ownership on returns to scale in agriculture evidence from maize in ghana abstract agricultural transformation process around the world has often accompanied the rise in returns to scale rts while tractor ownership is often associated with greater rts in agriculture whether the tractor ownership actually causes such increase in rts has not been formally tested in the literature we bridge this knowledge gap using a unique survey data of tractor owning farm households in ghana we find that owning tractors significantly increases the rts in maize production on the households largest mono cropped plot and weakens inverse relationship between land productivity and farm size this is partly achieved through the rise in the rts in tillage production the amount of tillage conducted rather than the rts in maize production given a fixed amount of tillage produced these sets of evidence are obtained by addressing jointly the multiple sources of endogeneity of tractor ownership tractor values tillage production and other inputs used

inflation risk premia in the term structure of interest rates this paper estimates the size and dynamics of inflation risk premia in the euro area based on a joint model of macroeconomic and term structure dynamics information from both nominal and index linked yields is used in the empirical analysis our results indicate that the inflation risk premium on euro area 10 year nominal yields was approximately equal to 20 basis points on average over the 1999 2007 period the inflation premium has also been subject to moderate but statistically significant fluctuations for the post 2003 period in which reliable index linked bond prices are available our results suggest that increases in the raw break even inflation rate above 2 the upper bound of the european central bank s definition for price stability have mostly reflected variations in the inflation risk premium while long term inflation expectations have remained well anchored

contracts job experience and cyclical labor market adjustments longitudinal estimates of the variability of individual wages hours and weeks worked over the course of changing demand states are provided for all workers generally and for workers of varied levels of job experience emphasis is placed on that part of job experience represented as years on current job a commonly used proxy for the magnitude of firm specific skills interpretation of resulting estimates in the context of the labor market contracting literature is attempted generally significant procyclical patterns are found for real weekly wages weekly hours and weeks worked the extent of weekly wage variability is much greater than is generally suggested in the literature furthermore workers with greater tenure exhibit greater cyclical wage and hours variability and less weeks variability finally empirical distinctions are drawn separately for white collar and blue collar as well as union and nonunion workers

fertilizer subsidies political influence and local food prices in sub saharan africa evidence from nigeria abstract the last decade has seen a resurgence in the use of fertilizer subsidies in sub saharan africa however there is limited empirical evidence on the effects of fertilizer subsidy programs on local food prices using an instrumental variables approach we explore the effect of a fertilizer subsidy program on the seasonal growth rates of grain prices in nigeria our results suggest that the fertilizer subsidy program had very small effects on the growth rates of grain prices between the post planting and post harvesting seasons we also find that political influence played a role in the distribution of subsidized fertilizer we discuss how the weak effects on the price growth rates may be caused by low market orientation output market structures greater focus on farmers incomes low marginal productivity of fertilizer and politically influenced targeting

shadow wages and peasant family labour supply an econometric application to the peruvian sierra a striking feature of developing economies is the large proportion of the work force that is self employed lack of widespread labor market participation in the agricultural sector can pose a major obstacle to the empirical implementation of economic models of the peasant household whether because wage data are simply not available or because the assumptions required to make use of wage data stretch the bounds of credulity this paper develops a methodology for estimating a structural labor supply model for primarily self employed peasant households which holds under a general agricultural technology and set of labor market conditions the unique feature of the approach is that the opportunity cost of time or shadow wage of household workers is explicitly estimated from an agricultural production function and is subsequently used to identify a set of structural labor supply parameters recent household survey data from rural peru is employed to estimate and perform various diagnostic tests on the model the empirical findings lend support to the hypothesis that peasant households allocate their members time as if to maximize a family utility function and moreover demonstrate the tractability of the shadow wage methodology and its usefulness in estimating more elaborate time allocation models

who uses illegal drugs gary becker and kevin murphy 1988 present a theoretical model of rational addiction that requires information on past present and future prices they do not study illegal drugs empirically in this and their related papers a major data source is the annual survey of high school seniors hss also known as monitoring the future this work is summarized in l johnston et al 1988 they find a growing use of drugs measured by monthly annual and lifetime prevalence over time and differences by region and sex cocaine use showed marked increases from 1976 though this levelled off from 1986 to 1987 they often rely on cross tabs that leaves many variables uncontrolled and the results subject to omitted variable bias j bachman et al 1984 use ordinary least squares ols regressions in which the drug use in the three years post high school is related to various characteristics such as living arrangements while an improvement over cross tabs ols applied to categorical dependent variables yields inefficient estimates see m nerlove and s press 1973 johnston et al used follow up surveys of a subsample drawn from each cohort they find the use of some drugs decline at older ages say 35 though they do not determine if the heavy users have died dropped out of the sample or have been rehabilitated the hss s initial restriction to high school seniors removes about 30 percent of the population who drop out of high school perhaps because of taking drugs studies based on the national institute of drug abuse nida sample of people 12 and older show some heavy drug use of people less than 17 years old see j d miller et al 1982 and nida 1985 richard clayton 1985 using the 1980 hss presents univariate regressions that shows the frequency of use of cocaine is positively related to lifetime marijuana use and days out of school in the past month but negatively related to high school grade point average h abelson and miller 1985 using the nida surveys covering 1974 82 show differences in the percentage using cocaine by education and race for lifetime 12 months and last month measures they find strong trends d kandel 1980 presents a recent survey of drinking and drug use among youth people in their late 30 s mature out of heroin use rather than die

are kenyan farmers under utilizing fertilizer implications for input intensification strategies and research abstract it is widely perceived that african farmers are under utilizing inorganic fertilizer however very little long term evidence from farmers fields accounting for variations in agro ecological conditions has been assembled to back this claim or determine the conditions under which it is true using five waves of nationwide household survey data from kenya covering 13 years we estimate the relative and absolute profitability of nitrogen application rates on maize fields and compare these profitability conditions to observed nitrogen use patterns over time in general we find that farmers are consistently and steadily increasing towards risk adjusted economically optimal rates of fertilizer application over time and that in the most agriculturally productive areas farmers application rates on maize sometimes exceed rates that maximize profitability fertilizer use rates may nevertheless be profitably raised in these areas but doing so will require the adoption of complementary inputs and management practices that raise maize response rates to fertilizer application this motivates a more holistic approach to input intensification strategies in the region

monetary policy and real wage cyclicality this article points to the potential role of monetary policy in affecting the degree of real wage cyclicality we show that the degree and direction of real wage cyclicality is determined by the interaction of i the returns to scale in production ii the nature of aggregate shocks and iii monetary policy given that production technology is fairly constant in the short run we suggest that variations in the real wage output covariance depend largely on the combination of the latter two identifying well documented monetary policy phases in six major organization for economic co operation and development oecd countries and accounting for both aggregate demand and supply shocks we provide empirical evidence to support our main theoretical claim

inventories rational expectations and the business cycle abstract the simplest macroeconomic models in which markets clear instantaneously and expectations are rational preclude the existence of business cycles that is of serially correlated deviations of output from trend this paper studies one of several mechanisms that can be used to make these so called new classical models produce business cycles the mechanism is the gradual adjustment of inventory stocks two macroeconomic models of inventory holdings are formulated both imply first that current output should be a decreasing function of the stock of inventories and second that inventories once perturbed from equilibrium levels should adjust only gradually these two features are then embedded into an otherwise standard macroeconomic model in which markets clear instantaneously and expectations are rational two principal conclusions are reached first disturbances such as unanticipated changes in money will set in motion serially correlated deviations of output from trend second if desired inventories are sensitive to the real interest rate then even fully anticipated changes in money can affect real variables

search frictions matching aggregate and establishment observations abstract we estimate a search model to match hours employment vacancies and unemployment at the micro and macrolevels we establish a set of facts concerning the variability of unemployment and vacancies in the aggregate and the distribution of net employment growth and the comovement of hours and employment growth at the establishment level a search model with non convex costs of posting vacancies establishment level profitability shocks and a contracting framework to set hours provides a structure to understand these observations the estimated model is able to capture both the aggregate and establishment level facts

tax base variability and procyclical fiscal policy in developing countries abstract based on a sample of 56 countries we show that fiscal policy in the g7 countries appears to be acyclical while fiscal policy in developing countries is procyclical i e fiscal policy is expansionary in good times and contractionary in bad times to explain this puzzle we develop an optimal fiscal policy model in which running budget surpluses is costly because they create pressures to increase public spending given this distortion a government that faces large fluctuations in the tax base as is the case for developing countries will find it optimal to run a procyclical fiscal policy

are european business cycles close enough to be just one abstract we propose a comprehensive methodology to characterize the business cycle comovements across european economies and some industrialized countries without imposing any given model but trying to leave the data speak we develop a novel method to show that there is no evidence of a european economy that acts as an attractor to the other economies of the area we show that the establishment of the monetary union has not significantly increased the level of comovements across euro area economies finally we are able to explain an important proportion of the distances across their business cycles using macrovariables related to the structure of the economy to the directions of trade and to the size of the public sector

imperfectly competitive labour markets and the productivity puzzle abstract we integrate imperfectly competitive labour markets in a dynamic macromodel in accordance with empirical evidence we find that temporary shocks are consistent with little real wage and large employment responsiveness while permanent shocks affect real wages and not employment

marijuana on main street estimating demand in markets with limited access abstract marijuana is the most common illicit drug with vocal advocates for legalization among other things legalization would increase access and remove the stigma of illegality our model disentangles the role of access from preferences and shows that selection into access is not random we find that traditional demand estimates are biased resulting in incorrect policy conclusions if marijuana were legalized those under 30 would see modest increases in use of 28 percent while on average use would increase by 48 percent to 19 4 percent tax policies are effective at curbing use where australia could raise au 1 billion and the united states us 12 billion jel d12 h25 k14 k42

business cycle models aggregation and real wage cyclicality a substantial literature has developed to estimate the true cyclicality of real wages that is composition bias free two major issues are addressed in this article aggregation of heterogeneous workers and potential bias in the measurement of the labor input a general analysis of the biases is presented and alternative approaches in the literature are nested in a single framework estimates based on an efficiency units concept that avoids the usual aggregation problems are presented composition bias underestimates the usual parameters of interest unless both the price and the quantity of the labor input are adjusted appropriately

electoral cycles and the earnings of federal bureaucrats this paper analyzes the relationship between the timing of federal elections and the pay raises received by civilian employees of the federal government the theoretical framework discusses how electoral wage cycles are generated as a result of optimizing behavior on the part of voters bureaucrats and the government the empirical analysis uses a time series of wage rates for the twenty eight largest federal agencies over the period 1961 1978 the study indicates that pay hikes during the presidential election year are significantly greater about 2 to 3 percent higher than bureaucratic pay raises in other years

the dynamic effects of aggregate demand and supply disturbances we interpret fluctuations in gnp and unemployment as due to two types of disturbances disturbances that have a permanent effect on output and disturbances that do not we interpret the first as supply disturbances the second as demand disturbances demand disturbances have a hump shaped mirror image effect on output and unemployment the effect of supply disturbances on output increases steadily over time peaking after two years and reaching a plateau after five years

fiscal policy and monetary integration in europe fiscal policy economists policy makers and the media often argue that the maastricht treaty and the stability and growth pact make it difficult for governments of emu countries to stabilize their economies with appropriate fiscal policy and to provide adequate public investment our empirical analysis offers little support to this view discretionary budget deficits have actually become more counter cyclical in emu countries after the maastricht treaty as well as in the other eu and non eu industrialized countries we study and while public investment has declined recently in emu countries a similar tendency is apparent in other countries and started well before the maastricht treaty was signed jordi gali and roberto perotti

state conditional fertilizer yield response on western kenyan farms 15 16 17 we acknowledge with gratitude support from the rockefeller foundation the united states agency for 18 international development usaid leadership enhancement in agriculture program leap and the 19 coupled natural and human systems program of the biocomplexity initiative of the national science 20 foundation through grant bcs 0215890 the world agroforestry center icraf graciously hosted 21 the lead author for part of the research and provided soil test results we are also grateful to james

working wives and food away from home the box cox double hurdle model household expenditures on food away from home are analyzed with the use of the bls 1989 consumer expenditure survey parameterization and distributional assumptions of cragg s double hurdle model are generalized for this purpose and the resulting model outperforms the more traditional ones results suggest households with working wives and those with higher income are more likely to consume food away from home and also to consume more than others wife s age and household size increase the conditional level of consumption education has conflicting effects on probability and conditional level of consumption

risks and farmers investment in productive assets in nigeria the majority of farmers in sub saharan africa ssa lack the means to mitigate the impact of risks associated with rainfall and commodity prices due to capital constraints and the imperfect insurance market in these countries because most ssa farmers are risk averse they may be willing to invest in productive assets that can mitigate the impacts of such risks if their capital constraints are relaxed through external financial assistance we test this hypothesis by using panel data on investment behavior of nigerian farmers who received financial assistance on productive assets the empirical results show that farmers facing higher rainfall risks are more likely to invest in irrigation pumps that can mitigate the impact of rainfall risks while those facing higher risks of white gari price are more likely to invest in milling machines that enable them to process cassava into flour instead of gari which supports our hypothesis

the cyclical behaviour of fiscal policy evidence from the oecd this paper addresses the topic of cyclicality in scal policy in particular we show that the level of cyclicality varies across spending categories and across oecd countries in line with leading theories of scal cyclicality we show that countries with volatile output and dispersed political power are the most likely to run procyclical scal policies wage government consumption is highlighted as the most important channel by which these variables affect scal cyclicality

illicit drug use and labour market achievement evidence from the uk this study using data from the british crime survey bcs examines the effect of drug use on occupational achievement it starts by attempting to overcome the identification problem that results from the limited set of drug use questions presented in the bcs taking this into account and allowing for the endogeneity of drug use in equations for unemployment and labour market outcomes that a mild positive association with soft drugs and occupational achievement is observed that diminishes with age this relationship holds for males but not for females in contrast it is also found that past use of hard drugs significantly increases the likelihood of current unemployment although it appears to be unrelated to occupational success conditional on achieving employment

why are wages cyclical in the 1970 s this article investigates cyclicality in real wages between 1969 and 1982 using panel study of income dynamics data there is little evidence that movements in and out of the labor market induced aggregate wage cyclicality during these years however cyclicality in the movement of workers between heterogeneous labor market sectors affected aggregate wage cyclicality while sector location is important sector selectivity is not correlated with wages yet even within sectors cyclicality is present in real wages over this time period and is the result of cyclicality in overall wage levels as well as in the coefficients associated with particular worker characteristics

fiscal policy in general equilibrium this paper studies four classic fiscal policy experiments within a quantitatively restricted neoclassical model the authors main findings are as follows 1 permanent changes in government purchases can lead to short run and long run output multipliers that exceed one 2 permanent changes in government purchases induce larger effects than temporary changes 3 the financing decision is quantitatively more important than the resource cost of changes in government purchases and 4 public investment has dramatic effects on private output and investment these findings stem from important dynamic interactions of capital and labor absent in earlier equilibrium analyses of fiscal policy copyright 1993 by american economic association

the comovement between output and prices abstract in this paper i analyze the comovement of us prices and output in the postwar period i use a new set of statistics to characterize the comovement between variables the statistics capture important information about the dynamics in the system the estimation procedure does not require assumptions about the order of integration or the types of assumptions needed for var decompositions i find that the comovement between output and prices is positive in the short run and negative in the long run i show that a model in which demand shocks dominate in the short run and supply shocks dominate in the long run can explain these empirical results while sticky price models with only demand shocks cannot

heterogeneous returns to chemical fertilizer at the intensive margins insights from nepal increased fertilizer use is considered important for agricultural development in low income countries promoting increased use of chemical fertilizer by lowering its price may be ineffective if demand is price inelastic in theory the price elasticity of demand depends on the returns to its use but the evidence is scarce furthermore while returns are often estimated for small changes in chemical fertilizer use returns to larger changes in its use intensive margins are less understood through the inter zonal comparisons in nepal we provide indicative evidence that greater returns to chemical fertilizer are associated with greater price elasticities of demand moreover the evidence suggests that returns at the intensive margins rather than returns to small changes may largely account for inter zonal differences in returns to chemical fertilizer within nepal the results suggest that better understanding the returns at the intensive margins is critical for effective agricultural inputs policies in developing countries

the earnings of immigrant men in canada job tenure cohort and macroeconomic conditions using eleven cross sectional surveys spanning 1981 92 the authors compare the earnings of immigrant and native born men in canada apparently recent immigrant cohorts have suffered no decline in earnings job tenure is found to be a strongly significant determinant of earnings previous estimates of immigrant earnings differentials which have not incorporated job tenure information may partly reflect differences in tenure between immigrants and the native born when the sample is restricted to pairs of surveys that are close to the census survey years the estimates of cohort effects are sensitive to the choice of survey years one possible explanation for that sensitivity is suggested by the finding that macroeconomic conditions are a statistically significant determinant of the rate of assimilation of recent immigrants

real wages and the business cycle the objectives of this review are threefold 1 to characterize the empirical literature on the cyclical behavior of real wages 2 to identify the sources of the differences in results across studies and 3 to enumerate key factors that determine the cyclicality of real wages given a host of measurement and methodological issues drawing firm conclusions is difficult but several generalizations can be made the estimated cyclicality of real wages depends crucially on the time period of analysis and the choice of whether to examine the production or the consumption wage composition effects play an important but complicated role as well

spatial dynamics and heterogeneity in the cyclicality of real wages neither the issue of how local and aggregate labor markets interact over time nor the issue of how heterogeneity by education race and other factors interacts with these spatial dynamics has prev

retrospectives real and money wage rates abstract in the general theory john maynard keynes held money and real wage rates move in opposite directions in expansion prices increase faster because of increasing costs and a rise in the proportion of product going to profits neoclassical economists held similarly money illusion of workers supported their common view the author s 1938 article rather showed a procyclical pattern significant to macroeconomic models of the economy contemporary literature with new elements of compensation and new measures of wages supports a slightly procyclical relationship increased output and employment in expansion do not require lower real wages

cyclical behavior of real wages in japan this paper studies the cyclicality of aggregate real wages in japan by using both static and dynamic approaches i measure comovements between real wages and business cycle indicators this paper finds that while real wages constructed using the consumer price index and the gdp deflator are procyclical real wages constructed using the producer price index are countercyclical this result is robust to the data and methods used to compute the comovements

wage rigidity in canadian collective bargaining agreements the authors search information on the provisions of 10 947 wage contracts signed in the canadian unionized sector between 1976 and 1999 for evidence of downward nominal wage rigidity the disinclination of wages to fall in nominal dollars below their established level over the sample period real wage reductions were common but nominal wage reductions were rare the probability of downward nominal wage rigidity increased substantially during low inflation periods during such periods apparently there was no reduction in the incidence of real wage cuts but the magnitude of those cuts was modest suggesting a lesser ability of wages to adjust to labor market conditions than at other times

cyclical effects of government s employment and goods purchases distinguishing between the goods purchase and employee compensation components of government spending is important shocks to government goods purchases and shocks to government employment have the opposite effects on private output private employment and private investment moreover with this distinction in place quantitative analysis reveals that government spending is no longer a significant driving source of the u s business cycle on the contrary the components of government spending are procyclical in the u s data primarily because of their positive responses to the output fluctuations generated by technology shocks copyright 1998 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

cyclical quality adjustment in the labor market 1 introductionthe u s unemployment rate fell to very low levels during the 1990s even more impressively the unemployment rate for minorities and less educated individuals fell disproportionately convergence of relative unemployment rates in expansions and divergence in recessions has been a feature of the u s economy over the last 30 years there are many possible reasons for this feature for example if the costs of hiring and firing less skilled labor are low one would expect these individuals to have very procyclical employment in this paper i explore an alternative model when there is an excess supply of labor high skilled people take jobs that would normally be occupied by less skilled people in expansions the process reverses with less skilled workers getting access to jobs that they would normally not attain i refer to this process as cyclical quality adjustment reder 1955 p 834 was one of the first to discuss how hiring standards adjust to business cycle conditions quality variations in labor markets arise through upgrading and downgrading of members of the labor force relative to the jobs they are to fill when applicants become scarce employers tend to lower the minimum standards upon which they insist as a condition for hiring a worker to fill a particular job and vice versa when applicants become plentiful since then many papers have developed this idea theoretically and many economic commentators appear to share this view of the labor market for example the economic report of the president states that a strong labor market is particularly important to less advantaged groups in the labor market such as workers with less education younger workers racial and ethnic minorities and immigrants when employers find it hard to fill vacancies they are more willing to hire and train workers whom they might pass over when they have fewer openings and an abundance of applicants council of economic advisors 1999 p 103 likewise the expansion during the 1990s spawned many newspaper articles about the improvement in the types of jobs available to less skilled applicants however there is little systematic empirical work about changes in job assignment in the united states over the business cycle the empirical work in this paper seeks to redress this situation cyclical assignment changes are important for many reasons as mentioned earlier job upgrading is a potential explanation for the greater cyclical variation of employment experienced by less skilled workers it is well known that the unemployment rates of less skilled individuals and minorities are more countercyclical relative to more skilled individuals clark and summers 1981 kydland 1984 keane and prasad 1993 hoynes 1999 the standard explanation for this effect is that low ability workers are more likely to be laid off in downturns because training and hiring costs are lower for these workers no commensurate attention has been paid to the issue of how the decision of who to hire changes over the business cycle however assignment models present a natural explanation for the greater procyclicality of employment of the less skilled both the adjustment cost hypothesis and the upgrading hypothesis imply that less skilled workers will have more procyclical employment empirically they are distinguishable because the upgrading explanation implies that jobs obtained by comparable workers should vary systematically over the cycle the adjustment cost hypothesis relates to the composition of those whose jobs are terminated second these mechanisms suggest a reason why wages are particularly procyclical for job changers recent studies using panel data have indicated that the wages of job starters are much more procyclical than the wages of workers who do not change jobs researchers have suggested various explanations for this result beaudry and dinardo 1991 and macleod and malcomson 1993 present contracting models in which the wages of job starters depend on the state of the labor market when they join the firm

measuring the cyclicality of real wages how important is the firm s point of view there is a growing consensus among economists that real wages in the postwar united states have been procyclical greatly bolstering technology driven theories of business cycles at the expense of more classical models this paper makes the point that technological movements in firm s labor demand curves should be tested with a wage that is deflated by the firm s own price of output with appropriate controls for intermediate inputs and with respect to the cyclical state of the firm s own industry as opposed to the state of the aggregate economy failure to control for these factors is found to lead to substantial overrejection of the classical model in detailed industry data with controls for changes in worker composition i find that a vast majority of sectors have paid real product wages that vary inversely that is countercyclically with the state of their industry

evaluating the performance of the search and matching model abstract does the search and matching model fit aggregate u s labor market data while the model has become an important tool of macroeconomic analysis recent literature pointed to some significant failures in accounting for the data this paper aims to answer two questions i does the model fit the data and if so on what dimensions ii does the data fit the model i e what are the data which are relevant to be explained by the model the analysis shows that the model fits certain specifications of the data on many dimensions though not on all this includes capturing the high persistence and high volatility of most of the key variables the negative co variation of unemployment and vacancies and the behavior of the worker job finding rate a key role in this fit is played by the convexity of hiring costs and the stochastic properties of the separation rate the latter is a major component of the rate discounting the future value of the job worker match the paper offers a workable empirically grounded version of the model for the analysis of aggregate u s labor market dynamics

why is fiscal policy often procyclical many countries especially developing ones follow procyclical fiscal policies namely spending goes up taxes go down in booms and spending goes down taxes go up in recessions we provide an explanation for this suboptimal fiscal policy based upon political distortions and incentives for less than benevolent government to appropriate rents voters have incentives similar to the starving the leviathan classic argument and demand more public goods or fewer taxes to prevent governments from appropriating rents when the economy is doing well we test this argument against more traditional explanations based purely on borrowing constraints with a reasonable amount of success

the effect of implicit contracts on the movement of wages over the business cycle evidence from micro data in this paper we address the question of whether wages are affected by labor market conditions in a manner more consistent with a contract approach than with a standard spot market model from a simple implicit contract model we derive implications about the links between wages and past labor market conditions using individual data from the current population survey and the panel study of income dynamics we find that an implicit contract model with costless mobility describes these links better than either a simple spot market model or an implicit contract model with costly mobility

the relative adjustment of wages and prices direct tests within a multiple equation system in order to assess the relative rigidity of the aggregate price level and the nominal wage rate most researchers have focused on the implied behaviour of the real wage rate in response to a purely demand disturbance the present work examines the explicit behaviour of the two variables and is therefore able to analyse the variables short run responses within the context of their defined long run behaviour while the paper reports evidence of long run stability in the real wage rate additional evidence is presented which supports both sticky price and sticky wage models the determining factor is the choice of lag

public or private sector wage leadership an international perspective whether a government acts as a wage leader placing pressure on private sector wages more open to competition or whether it plays a passive role and merely follows wage negotiations in the private sector there are important implications for macroeconomic development particularly in small open economies and or countries that are members of a monetary union such as those of the european monetary union with the notable exception of the case of sweden opinion on this issue is still divided in this paper we look at public and private sector wage interactions from an international perspective 18 oecd countries we focus on the causal two way relationship between public and private wage setting confirming that the private sector on the whole appears to have a stronger influence on the public sector rather than vice versa however we also find evidence of feedback effects from public wage setting which affect private sector wages in a number of countries when the private sector takes the lead on wages there are few feedback effects from the public sector while public wage leadership is typically accompanied by private sector feedback effects

a traditional interpretation of macroeconomic fluctuations under the traditional interpretation of macroeconomic fluctuations aggregate demand shocks move output and prices in the same direction while aggregate supply shocks move output and prices in opposite directions this paper examines the joint behavior of u s output unemployment prices wages and nominal money and asks whether it is consistent with this interpretation the answer is a qualified yes

a comparison of the cyclical behavior of union and nonunion wages in the united states this paper presents an extensive analysis of the behavior of union and nonunion wages over the business cycle using quasi panels developed from the current population survey in an attempt to resolve or reconcile competing claims about the cyclical behavior of union and nonunion wages union wages were roughly as procyclical as nonunion wages were prior to the early 1980s substantial reductions in union wage procyclicality since then are associated with reductions in the procyclical exercise of bargaining power

rising real wages mechanization and growing advantage of large farms evidence from indonesia this paper examines dynamic patterns of land use capital investments and wages in agriculture using farm panel data from indonesia the empirical analysis shows that with an increase in real wages that prevailed in both agricultural and non agricultural sectors in rural areas relatively larger farmers increased the size of operational farm land by renting in land as well as used more hired in machines through machine rental and or service providers which induces the substitution of labor by machines machines and land are complementary and consistently the inverse farm size productivity relationship tends to be reversed among relatively large holders the results support growing diminishing advantage of large small farms in the presence of rapidly rising real wages and have food security policy implications to many asian countries where real wages are rapidly rising and small farms are predominant

the effect of implicit contracts on the movement of wages over the business cycle evidence from the national longitudinal surveys a 1991 study by paul beaudry and john dinardo found evidence of internal labor markets that augment incumbent workers wages when the external labor market is tight when unemployment is low and shield their wages when it is slack current wages they found depend on the tightest labor market conditions observed since a worker was hired not current labor market tightness or labor market tightness at the time of hiring this paper replicates and extends that research using data from six cohorts of the national longitudinal surveys that together span more than three decades as well as an estimation framework more robust than that in the original study the author finds strong support for beaudry and dinardo s key prediction supplementary regressions confirm other implications of the theory as well recently at least the effect of implicit contracting on wages has been similar for men and women

economic shocks and labor market flexibility we test how labor markets adjust to large but temporary economic shocks in a context in which such shocks are common using an individual level panel from 1 140 philippine municipalities over 26 quarters we find that workers in areas affected by strong typhoons experience reductions in hours worked and hourly wages without evidence of layoffs the results are strongest for formal wage paying jobs we argue that those results are best explained by implicit contracts where workers and firms share risks we provide extensive qualitative data suggesting that employment contracts in the philippines allow for such flexibility abstract from author

tenure business cycle and the wage setting process abstract we analyze the interaction between job tenure and external labor market conditions in wage determination first we introduce a model that combines job matching with business cycle effects as the employment relationship progresses the worker appropriates a portion of the value of the match specific human capital she accumulates gradually becoming shielded from the cyclical variations in external labor market conditions the employment relationship is progressively internalized then we present empirical evidence supporting this prediction the elasticity of wages to the unemployment rate decreases with tenure this finding is robust to different specifications that allow for job heterogeneity and it contributes to the interpretation of recent evidence of changes in the effect of the business cycle on wages

computing white stylized facts on comovement abstract stylized facts concerning the comovements between two economic variables as measured by the cross correlation function of the two filtered variables reflect a mixture of both the existing cross correlation between the variables and the autocorrelation structure of each of them the autocorrelation structure in turn crucially depends on the filtering procedure we propose an alternative method of obtaining stylized facts based on the cross correlation function of the prewhitened time series which only depends on the purely stochastic components of the series and the cross effects between them the relevance of such an approach is tested by revisiting some of the facts reported by kydland and prescott federal reserve bank of minneapolis quarterly review 1990 3

real business cycles in this paper we demonstrate how certain very ordinary economic principles lead maximizing individuals to choose consumption production plans that display many of the characteristics commonly associated with business cycles our explanation is entirely consistent with i rational expectations ii complete current information iii stable preferences iv no technological change v no long lived commodities vi no frictions or adjustment costs vii no government viii no money and ix no serial dependence in the stochastic elements of the environment we also provide a completely worked out example of the type of artificial economy we have in mind the time series properties of the example exhibit some major features of observed business cycles although this type of model may not be capable of explaining all of the regularities in actual business cycles we believe that it provides a useful well defined benchmark for assessing the relative importance of factors e g monetary disturbances

consumption risk technology adoption and poverty traps evidence from ethiopia much has been written on the determinants of input and technology adoption in agriculture with issues such as input availability knowledge and education risk preferences profitability and credit constraints receiving much attention this paper focuses on a factor that has been less well documented the differential ability of households to take on risky production technologies for fear of the welfare consequences if shocks result in poor harvests building on an explicit model this is explored in panel data for ethiopia historical rainfall distributions are used to identify the counterfactual consumption risk controlling for unobserved household and time varying village characteristics it emerges that not just ex ante credit constraints but also the possibly low consumption outcomes when harvests fail discourage the application of fertilizer the lack of insurance causes inefficiency in production choices