quality competition with motivated providers and sluggish demand we study incentives for quality provision in markets where providers are motivated semi altruistic prices are regulated and firms are funded by a combination of block grants and unit prices competition is based on quality and demand adjusts sluggishly health or education are sectors in which the mentioned features are the rule we show that the presence of motivated providers makes dynamic competition tougher resulting in higher steady state levels of quality in the closed loop solution than in the benchmark open loop solution if the price is sufficiently high however this result is reversed if the price is sufficiently low and below unit costs sufficiently low prices also imply that a reduction in demand sluggishness will lead to lower steady state quality prices below unit costs will nevertheless be welfare optimal if the providers are sufficiently motivated

forecasting aggregate demand an analytical evaluation of top down versus bottom up forecasting in a production planning framework abstract we study the relative effectiveness of top down td and bottom up bu strategies for forecasting the aggregate demand in a production planning framework the aggregate demand series is composed of several correlated subaggregate components or items each of which is assumed to follow a stationary time series process which is correlated over time as is common in a production planning environment it is assumed that exponential smoothing is used as the forecasting technique under both strategies we analytically show that there is no difference in the relative performance of td and bu forecasting strategies when the time series for all of the subaggregate components follow a first order univariate moving average ma 1 process with identical coefficients of the serial correlation term we then perform a simulation study to examine the case when the coefficients of the serial correlation term for the subaggregate components are not identical it is found from the simulation study that the difference in the performance of the two forecasting strategies is relatively insignificant when the correlation between the subaggregate components is small or moderate

the new institutional economics this outstanding book presents new original contributions from some of the world s leading economists including ronald coase douglass c north masahiko aoki oliver e williamson and harold demsetz it demonstrates the extent and depth of the new institutional economics research programme which is having a worldwide impact on the economics profession

towards an economics of well being there is growing concern that presently dominant frameworks in economics no longer provide a way of adequately addressing and analysing the problems of today s globalising and rapidly changing world this article makes a number of fundamental proposals about how we might reframe economics to move it towards a clearer focus on human well being it develops arguments for a change in the basic ontological proposition and for the need to see the economy as an instituted process of resource allocation from this viewpoint economics is then the study of resource allocation decisions and processes and the forces that guide these from a human perspective it is about understanding who gets what under what conditions and why the paper argues that a pluralist approach to understanding the economy is necessary for political analytical and technical reasons drawing on a range of contributions to heterodox economics the paper argues that if we are to understand current crises and challenges then our understanding of resource allocation in society must have a broader scope than is present in mainstream economics it proposes a rethinking of economic agency and provides a critique of rational behaviour that is founded in shifting the emphasis from a narrow conception of welfare to well being acknowledging human well being as a multidimensional concept the relationship between the well being of the person and the collective is reconsidered and the methodological implications for the issue of aggregation are discussed the article seeks to serve as a point of departure for formulating new research questions exploring the relationships between human well being and economic development and analysing economic behaviour and interactions in such a way as to bring us closer to peoples realities on the ground

capital accumulation games of infinite duration abstract consider a market in which firms accumulate capital according to the nerlove arrow capital accumulation equation each player chooses a path of investment and thus an induced path of capital to maximize his total discounted profits which depend on his own capital and the capital stocks of his rivals existence is proved for such a nonzero sum infinite horizon differential game and conditions under which the game converges to a particular stationary point regardless of the initial conditions are shown thus the game possesses the property of conditional global asymptotic stability

competition between private and public schools vouchers and peer group effects a theoretical and computational model with tax financed tuition free public schools and competitive tuition financed private schools is developed students differ by ability and income achievement depends on own ability and on peers abilities equilibrium has a strict hierarchy of school qualities and two dimensional student sorting with stratification by ability and income in private schools high ability low income students receive tuition discounts while low ability high income students pay tuition premia tuition vouchers increase the relative size of the private sector and the extent of student sorting and benefit high ability students relative to low ability students

an integrated mixture of local experts model for demand forecasting abstract demand forecasting is an important issue in the supply chain planning process due to its usage for efficiently managing different planning tasks the common techniques adopted to perform such task are easy to use forecasting methods performed in computerised systems with minimum human intervention such as the simple exponential smoothing concerning the drawbacks of these modelling approaches past evidence suggests that they have been less successful in predicting short term fluctuations on demand in this work the simple exponential smoothing method is employed to build an integrated mixture of local experts model imlem for demand forecasting using as independent variable a lagged gross domestic product gdp indicator the imlem is usually employed to deal with rapidly changing situations and it is used in this work to improve the performance of the forecasts by providing a way to take into account short term fluctuations on demand due to changes on economic activity growth within an easy to use forecasting method the proposed method was applied on one step ahead demand forecasting for a brazilian beverage manufacturer for 130 non seasonal stock keeping units skus and the accuracy of the generated forecasts allowed to reduce the forecasting errors the obtained results also supported the decision making process by aiding demand planners concerning how to react to short term fluctuations on demand

stochastic demand production responses and hospital costs this paper considers the production responses to demand uncertainty within the hospital sector it is noted that such responses have an impact on hospital cost structures an empirical model is specified estimation is undertaken on a sample of uk hospitals over the period 1993 1995 differentiating between hospital output which arises from uncertain demand emergency treatment and output considered to be predictable elective treatment the model estimates that the cost of an elective admission is approximately 45 of the cost of an emergency admission demand uncertainty imposes a direct cost equivalent to around 5 of the total cost of emergency admission

dynamic duopoly with congestion effects abstract we analyze duopolistic competition between horizontally differentiated firms selling durable goods or services subject to congestion at each point of time new customers buy one unit of the commodity from one of the firms by comparing present prices and future congestion rates we study the linear markov equilibrium of this game which exists and is unique when firms are not too different the existence of negative consumption externalities is shown to soften the price competition moreover we show that the firm with the larger capacity has at the steady state a larger market share a higher price and a lower congestion rate the price of an entrant decreases gradually after entry while the price of the incumbent rises the faster the speed of convergence to the steady state is the stronger is the congestion effect

quality incentives in a regulated market with imperfect information and switching costs capitation in general practice we model a system akin to the british national health service nhs in which general practictioners gps are paid by capitation from general taxation gps are horizontally and vertically differentiated and compete for patients via their imperfect observed quality we show that for any given capitation fee quality is lower and the incentive effects of the fee on quality are smaller when there is imperfect information there are diminishing welfare gains from improving patient information but increasing welfare gains from reducing switching costs gps do not act efficiently to improve patient information via advertising or to reduce the costs of switching

congestion reducing investments and economic welfare in a hotelling model abstract we investigate optimal quality provision where quality is determined by congestion duopolists make congestion reducing investments and then compete in prices we find that an unregulated market leads to insufficient investment and that price cap below the equilibrium price eliminates this inefficiency

a dynamic theory of conjectural variations this paper explores the relationship between dynamic oligopolistic competition and static conjectural variations equilibria using an infinite horizon adjustment cost model the author demonstrates that any steady state closed loop subgame perfect equilibrium coincides with a conjectural variations equilibrium in the case of linear demand and quadratic costs the dynamic conjectures consistent with closed loop steady state equilibria are negative constant symmetric and vary continuously with the discount rate and the adjustment cost parameter in an interval between the static consistent conjectures and zero cournot copyright 1992 by blackwell publishing ltd

does competition among public schools benefit students and taxpayers tiebout choice among districts is the most powerful market force in american public education naive estimates of its effects are biased by endogenous district formation i derive instruments from the natural boundaries in a metropolitan area my results suggest that metropolitan areas with greater tiebout choice have more productive public schools and less private schooling little of the effect of tiebout choice works through its effect on household sorting this finding may be explained by another finding students are equally segregated by school in metropolitan areas with greater and lesser degrees of tiebout choice among districts

contracting for health services when patient demand does not reflect quality this paper analyses contracts to keep down costs while maintaining quality of health services when patient demand does not reflect quality there is then a natural role for forms of contract that have emerged during the reforms of the nhs in britain that differ from pure fixed price or cost reimbursement contracts the optimal form depends on whether the provider is entirely self interested or benevolent in having genuine concern for patient welfare with fully benevolent providers there are roles for block and cost and volume contracts with partially benevolent providers some degree of cost sharing is typically optimal

human development and economic sustainability abstract this paper attempts to integrate the concern for human development in the present with that in the future in arguing for sustainable human development it appeals to the notion of ethical universalism an elementary demand for impartiality of claims applied within and between generations economic sustainability is often seen as a matter of intergenerational equity but the specification of what is to be sustained is not always straightforward the addendum explores the relationship between distributional equity sustainable development optimal growth and pure time preference

investigating the added value of integrating human judgement into statistical demand forecasting systems abstract whilst the research literature points towards the benefits of a statistical approach business practice continues in many cases to rely on judgmental approaches for demand forecasting in today s dynamic environment it is especially relevant to consider a combination of both approaches however the question remains as to how this combination should occur this study compares two different ways of combining statistical and judgmental forecasting employing real life data from an international publishing company that produces weekly forecasts on regular and exceptional products two forecasting methodologies that are able to include human judgment are compared in a restrictive judgement model expert predictions are incorporated as restrictions on the forecasting model in an integrative judgment model this information is taken into account as a predictive variable in the demand forecasting process the proposed models are compared on error metrics and analysed with regard to the properties of the adjustments direction size and of the forecast itself volatility periodicity the integrative approach has a positive effect on accuracy in all scenarios however in those cases where the restrictive approach proved to be beneficial the integrative approach limited these beneficial effects the study links with demand planning by using the forecasts as input for an optimization model to determine the ideal number of skus per point of sale pos making a distinction between sku forecasts and sku per pos forecasts importantly this enables performance to be expressed as a measure of profitability which proves to be higher for the integrative approach than for the restrictive approach

optimal dynamic volume based price regulation abstract we consider a model of optimal price regulation in markets where demand is sluggish and asymmetric providers compete on quality using a spatial model which is suitable to investigate the health care and education sector we analyse within a dynamic set up the scope for price premiums or penalties on volume under the assumption of symmetric cost information we show that the socially optimal time path of quality provision off the steady state can be replicated by a simple dynamic pricing rule where the dynamic part of the rule is ex ante non discriminatory in the sense that the price premium or penalty on volume is common across providers despite their differing production costs whether the price schedule involves a penalty or a premium on volume relates to two concerns regarding production costs and consumer benefits which go in opposite directions price adjustments over time occur only through the price penalty or premium not time directly which highlights the simplicity and thus applicability of this regulation scheme

a dynamic model of quality competition with endogenous prices abstract we develop a dynamic model of price and quality competition in order to analyze the effects of competition on quality provision and to which extent an unregulated market is able to provide a socially optimal quality level our model combines a differential game approach with a hotelling spatial competition framework and our analysis applies in particular to industries such as long term care health care child care and education if providers nursing homes hospitals schools nurseries use closed loop decision rules which imply strategic interaction over time we show that although increased competition leads to higher quality in the steady state quality provision is nevertheless lower than under open loop rules and also suboptimally low from a welfare perspective thus our analysis identifies dynamic strategic interaction between competing providers as a potential source of inefficiency in quality provision

hospital competition and quality with regulated prices we analyse the effect of competition on quality in hospital markets with regulated prices considering the effect of both introducing competition monopoly versus competition and increasing competition through either lower transportation costs increased substitutability or a higher number of hospitals with semi altruistic providers and a fairly general cost structure we show that the relationship between competition and quality is generally ambiguous in contrast to the received body of theoretical literature this is consistent with and potentially explains the mixed empirical evidence

assessing competition in hospital care markets the importance of accounting for quality differentiation quality differentiation is especially important in the hospital industry where the choices of medicare patients are unaffected by prices unlike previous studies that use geographic market concentration to estimate hospital competitiveness this article emphasizes the importance of quality differentiation in this spatially differentiated market i estimate a random coefficients discrete choice model that predicts patient flow to different hospitals and find that demand responses to both distance and quality are substantial the estimates suggest that patients do not substitute toward alternative hospitals in proportion to current market shares implying that geographic market concentration is an inappropriate measure of hospital competitiveness

uncertain demand the structure of hospital costs and the cost of empty hospital beds abstract in this paper we reformulate the theory of cost and production to take account of uncertain demand facing a firm in the reformulated theory the duality between cost and production no longer obtains and demand distribution parameters enter the cost function as well as the traditional outputs and input prices we then estimate a short run cost function for a hospital facing uncertain demand using data from a national sample of over 5000 hospitals for the years 1983 1987 the traditional cost model is strongly rejected in favor of the reformulated model this model is used to calculate the cost of empty hospital beds controlling for the effect of uncertain demand on the structure of hospital costs the cost of an empty hospital bed is calculated as 36 443 in 1987 dollars we estimate that a one percent decrease in the number of hospital beds would decrease hospital costs by slightly over one third of one percent increasing the occupancy rate from the average 1992 level 65 percent back to the average 1980 level 76 percent is estimated to save the average hospital over 2 million or 9 5 percent of costs

hospital quality choice and market structure in a regulated duopoly this paper analyzes the optimal structure of a regulated health care industry in a model in which the regulator cannot enforce what hospitals do unverifiable quality of health or does not know what hospitals know incomplete information about production costs or both we show that if quality is unverifiable the choice between monopoly and duopoly does not change with respect to the verifiable case but if there are fixed costs assumed to be quality dependent and the monopoly is the optimal market structure the quality level of the operative hospital decreases asymmetry of information introduces informational rents that can be reduced by increasing the most efficient hospital s market share a monopoly is chosen more often

is hospital competition socially wasteful we study the consequences of hospital competition for medicare beneficiaries heart attack care from 1985 to 1994 we examine how relatively exogenous determinants of hospital choice such as travel distances influence the competitiveness of hospital markets and how hospital competition interacts with the influence of managed care organizations to affect the key determinants of social welfare expenditures on treatment and patient health outcomes in the 1980s the welfare effects of competition were ambiguous but in the 1990s competition unambiguously improves social welfare increasing hmo enrollment over the sample period partially explains the dramatic change in the impact of hospital competition

could do better the effectiveness of incentives and competition in schools this paper studies the eects of incentive mechanisms and of the competitive environment on the interaction between schools and stu dents in a set up where their eort aects the students educational attainment we show that increasing the power of the incentive scheme and the eectiveness of competition may have the counterintuitive ef fect of lowering the students attainment in a simple dynamic set up where the reputation of the schools aects recruitment we show that increased competition leads to segregation of pupils by ability

payment source and the cost of hospital care evidence from a multiproduct cost function with multiple payers abstract this study investigates the capacity of hospitals to vary the intensity of their services based on patients expected sources of payment while the concept of price discrimination by hospitals based on payer generosity cost shifting has been discussed extensively the notion that hospitals can adjust payer specific marginal costs to reflect differences in reimbursement policies has not been studied in depth to examine this issue this analysis employs a multiproduct cost function with hospital outputs defined as admissions by payment source controlling for the distribution and severity of illness casemix for each payer marginal costs of casemix adjusted discharges are obtained and compared for medicare medicaid private payers and a residual category that includes uncompensated care we find that indeed payer specific marginal costs generally reflect payer generosity

dynamic hospital competition under rationing by waiting times abstract we develop a dynamic model of hospital competition where i waiting times increase if demand exceeds supply ii patients choose a hospital based in part on waiting times and iii hospitals incur waiting time penalties we show that whereas policies based on penalties will lead to lower waiting times policies that promote patient choice will instead lead to higher waiting times these results are robust to different game theoretic solution concepts designs of the hospital penalty structure and patient utility specifications furthermore waiting time penalties are likely to be more effective in reducing waiting times if they are designed with a linear penalty structure but the counterproductive effect of patient choice policies is smaller when penalties are convex these conclusions are partly derived by calibration of our model based on waiting times and elasticities observed in the english nhs for a common treatment cataract surgery

competition and quality in health care markets a differential game approach we investigate the effect of competition on quality in health care markets with regulated prices taking a differential game approach in which quality is a stock variable using a hotelling framework we derive the open loop solution health care providers set the optimal investment plan at the initial period and the feedback closed loop solution providers move investments in response to the dynamics of the states under the closed loop solution competition is more intense in the sense that providers observe quality in each period and base their investment on this information if the marginal provision cost is constant the open loop and closed loop solutions coincide and the results are similar to the ones obtained by static models if the marginal provision cost is increasing investment and quality are lower in the closed loop solution when competition is more intense in this case static models tend to exaggerate the positive effect of competition on quality

quality incentives for gps in a regulated market abstract this paper analyses whether gps in a capitation system have incentives to provide quality even though health is a credence good a model is developed where the quality of the service varies due to inherent differences between the gps and rational patients make choices based on the outcome of treamtent we find that it is difficult to provide appropriate incentives since the search activity of patients offsets direct effects of a change in reimbursement variation in the inherent ability of the gps is good since it increases the search activity of the patients and the optimal reimbursement scheme is inversely proportional to the dispersion in types finally we find that offering a menu of contracts can potentially increase social welfare above the level of a simple capitation regime but it tends to lead to a higher variation in quality levels

forecasting and inventory performance in a two stage supply chain with arima 0 1 1 demand theory and empirical analysis the arima 0 1 1 demand model has been analysed extensively by researchers and used widely by forecasting practitioners due to its attractive theoretical properties and empirical evidence in its support however no empirical investigations have been conducted in the academic literature to analyse demand forecasting and inventory performance under such a demand model in this paper we consider a supply chain formed by a manufacturer and a retailer facing an arima 0 1 1 demand process the relationship between the forecasting accuracy and inventory performance is analysed along with an investigation on the potential benefits of forecast information sharing between the retailer and the manufacturer results are obtained analytically but also empirically by means of experimentation with the sales data related to 329 stock keeping units skus from a major european superstore our analysis contributes towards the development of the current state of knowledge in the areas of inventory forecasting and forecast information sharing and offers insights that should be valuable from the practitioner perspective