whom can we trust to run the fed theoretical support for the founders views abstract the federal reserve has been called a bizarre policymaking structure this paper documents and formalizes a historical argument that the fed s structure was a response to public conflict over inflation s redistributive powers the paper shows that in the face of conflict over redistributive inflation policy by majority can lead to policy that is worse even for the majority than obvious alternatives in balancing the interests for and against surprise inflation the fed s structure can lead to a better outcome

stabilization policy in a currency union abstract we show that the monetary authority of a currency union chooses to do nothing in the face of an asymmetric shock generating inefficiently high inflation and employment fluctuations in the member countries moreover adjustment is equivalent to that under a mckinnon rule

do pharmacists buy bayer informed shoppers and the brand premium we estimate the effect of information and expertise on consumers willingness to pay for national brands in physically homogeneous product categories in a detailed case study of headache remedies we find that more informed or expert consumers are less likely to pay extra to buy national brands with pharmacists choosing them over store brands only 9 percent of the time compared to 26 percent of the time for the average consumer in a similar case study of pantry staples such as salt and sugar we show that chefs devote 12 percentage points less of their purchases to national brands than demographically similar nonchefs we extend our analysis to cover 50 retail health categories and 241 food and drink categories the results suggest that misinformation and related consumer mistakes explain a sizable share of the brand premium for health products and a much smaller share for most food and drink products we tie our estimates together using a stylized model of demand and pricing

evolving choice inconsistencies in choice of prescription drug insurance we study choice over prescription insurance plans by the elderly using government administrative data to evaluate how these choices evolve over time we find large foregone savings from not choosing the lowest cost plan that has grown over time we develop a structural framework to decompose the changes in foregone welfare from inconsistent choices into choice set changes and choice function changes from a fixed choice set we find that foregone welfare increases over time due primarily to changes in plan characteristics such as premiums and out of pocket costs we estimate little learning at either the individual or cohort level

the effects of moral licensing and moral cleansing in contingent valuation and laboratory experiments on the demand to reduce externalities recent field experiments show that peer information can induce people to reduce their production of negative externalities related work in psychology demonstrates that inducing feelings of relative culpability in one domain can induce spillover pro social behavior in another domain we use a contingent valuation and parallel lab experiment to explore patterns of cross domain responses to norm based interventions asymmetric responses between those whose impacts are above or below the norm are found to be robust across decision settings substantial heterogeneity in responses is observed across a number of dimensions not explored in large field experiments raising questions about the universality of peer information effects and the design of such programs

structural convergence under reversible and irreversible monetary unification abstract we explore endogenous monetary unification in the context of a model in which a country with serious structural distortions and hence high inflation is admitted into a monetary union once its economic structure has converged sufficiently towards that of the existing participants if unification is reversible so that the new entrant can always be forced to leave the union again later convergence stops for a while after the high inflation country has joined with irreversible unification in contrast temporary divergence occurs and unification will be delayed

invited paper even the rich can make themselves poor a critical examination of iv methods in marketing applications marketing is a field that is rich in data our data is of high quality often at a highly disaggregate level and there is considerable variation in the key variables for which estimates of effects on outcomes such as sales and profits are desired the recognition that in some general sense marketing variables are set by firms on the basis of information not always observable by the researcher has led to concerns regarding endogeneity and widespread pressure to implement instrumental variables methods in marketing problems the instruments used in our empirical literature are rarely valid and the iv methods used can have poor sampling properties including substantial finite sample bias and large sampling errors given the problems with iv methods a convincing argument must be made that there is a first order endogeneity problem and that we have strong and valid instruments before these methods should be used if strong and valid instruments are not available then researchers need to look toward supplementing the information available to them for example if there are concerns about unobservable advertising or promotional variables then the researcher is much better off measuring these variables rather than using instruments such as lagged marketing variables that are clearly invalid ultimately only randomized variation in marketing variables with proper implementation and large samples can be argued to be a valid instrument without further assumptions

the anti inflationary influence of corporatist structures and central bank independence the importance of the hump shaped hypothesis many studies have found strong negative correlations between central bank independence and inflation but the casual significance of this relationship is often challenged we find that the negative relationship remains even when a number of other explanatory variables are considered special attention is given to the role of corporatism following calmfors and driffell it is argued that both high and low levels of centralization should be associated with lower inflation we present empirical support for his hump shaped hypothesis and find that the inclusion of corporatism does not diminish the significance of central bank independence

the european central bank and the federal reserve in the 4 years of its existence the european central bank ecb has made significant contributions to the macroeconomic stability of the euro area this paper takes a critical look at the ecb and compares its institutional structure policy framework and operational procedures with those of the longer established us central bank we discuss the implications of various differences between the ecb and the federal reserve with a view toward identifying successful elements of the practices of both these institutions the paper recommends that the ecb abandon the first pillar of its monetary policy strategy that affords a special role to monetary aggregates in the evaluation of financial market conditions it also suggests that the federal reserve should follow the ecb s lead and provide an explicit definition of price stability copyright 2003 oxford university press

social comparisons and contributions to online communities a field experiment on movielens we design a field experiment to explore the use of social comparison to increase contributions to an online community we find that after receiving behavioral information about the median user s total number of movie ratings users below the median demonstrate a 530 percent increase in the number of monthly movie ratings while those above the median decrease their ratings by 62 percent when given outcome information about the average user s net benefit score above average users mainly engage in activities that help others our findings suggest that effective personalized social information can increase the level of public goods provision

social norms and moral hazard the probability of income loss depends on talent and effort effort has positive externalities and therefore individuals are awarded status in proportion to their perceived diligence the social no

are positional concerns stronger in some domains than in others for more than one hundred years economists have discussed the concept of positional goods that the utility conferred by many perhaps even most goods depends not only on the amount the individual consumes but also on the amount others consume e g thorstein veblen 1899 james duesenberry 1949 john k galbraith 1958 robert frank 1985 while economic interest in positional goods is increasing e g mark pingle and mike mitchell 2002 kenneth arrow et al 2004 ed hopkins and tatiana kornienko 2004 the literature remains largely theoretical rather than empirical if status concerns affect all items in the utility function equally leisure as well as goods the positional effect would operate like a lump sum tax reducing well being without changing the allocation of time or money arrow et al 2004 however if positional concerns are stronger for some things than for others then in order to understand how people can become better off in well being not simply in wealth we must investigate how interpersonal competition interacts with material gains frank 1997 evidence about what goods are more positional than others is essential for correct policy recommendations gregory besharov 2002 but little is actually known about the relative positional rankings of items in the typical consumer s utility function four hypotheses proposed in the literature are

information marketing and pricing in the u s antiulcer drug market introduced into the united states in 1977 tagamet was the pioneer product in the class of antiulcer drugs known as h2antagonists by promoting ulcer healing through inhibiting acid secretion tagamet was able to heal ulcers and treat pre ulcer conditions pharmacologically on an outpatient basis thereby substituting for more costly hospital admissions and surgeries in 1983 another h2 antagonist called zantac entered and by early 1987 u s zantac sales surpassed those of the pioneering tagamet today there are four h2 antagonists sold in the united states tagamet zantac pepcid and axid zantac is now the world s largest selling prescription drug having estimated worldwide sales in 1994 of about 4 billion each of the four h2 antagonists is among the top 100 in world drug sales although tagamet lost u s patent protection on may 17 1994 in this paper we examine empirically the role of information in facilitating and explaining growth of the overall antiulcer drug market as well as in shaping the changing market shares of the four patented products the dissemination of information is due largely to the use of marketing channels such as visits by manufacturers representatives to physicians called detailing advertising in medical journals and most recently by direct to consumer advertising we examine these and also explore pricing policies product differentiation and orderof entry effects

how much a symmetry in europe evidence from industrial sectors abstract to what extent do european countries differ with respect to the sources of cyclical fluctuations of industrial output we look at output data disaggregated by industry for 11 european countries and on the basis of a cointegrated vector autoregression model we examine the correlation of output innovations at the industry and country levels we also discuss to what extent output innovations can be considered symmetric or asymmetric our results point to the fact that on average more variance of output innovations is explained at the country rather than the industry level we also find that the importance of asymmetric disturbances is quite varied among the 11 countries and we identify a core of countries with a higher degree of symmetry

the bundesbank s path to independence evidence from the 1950s the german bundesbank is frequently called the world s most independent and conservative central bank taking account of the path dependency of this reputation both quantitative data and qualitative data on german central bank law and political conflicts are used to determine the factors that contributed to this reputation in the 1950s it is shown that quantitative analysis has its limits and that law might be a misleading indicator in this respect it is rather the analysis of policy conflicts between the bundesbank and the government that yields information on the bank s path to independence

endogenous oca analysis and the early euro experience some have argued that the endogenous responses to the formation of a currency area are so strong that one need not worry about optimum currency area conditions ex ante we argue that this is much too strong a conclusion we draw on a number of recent studies to evaluate the endogeneity experiences of the eurozone in three major areas trade flows business cycle synchronisation and structural reforms to improve labour and product market flexibility simple before and after comparisons are insufficient for analysis of endogeneity the experiences of non euro western european economies suggest that broader trends also had considerable influence on trade and business cycle patterns while trade rose substantially within the eurozone it also rose with and among other european economies we argue that political economy considerations tend to dampen the magnitude of endogeneity efforts on structural reforms and that meeting conditions for entry may be a more powerful mechanism in this than are subsequent endogenous responses we also discuss a number of areas for further research

a new paradigm for valuing non market goods using referendum data maximum likelihood estimation by censored logistic regression abstract this paper challenges the w m hanemann amer j agr econom 66 332 341 1984 and c sellar j p chavas and j r stoll j environ econom management 13 382 390 1986 utilizations of logit models to estimate the value of non market resources from referendum survey data these data are more informative than conventional choice data the random utility interpretation of logit models is therefore too restrictive bypassing the utility function entirely it will be shown that parameters and standard errors for utility theoretic inverse hicksian demand functions can be extracted directly and much more simply estimated demand functions need not be limited to those corresponding to the linear in parameters utility difference specifications which can be handled by packaged logit programs

determinants of inflationary performance corporatist structures vs central bank autonomy studies by economists have shown that countries with autonomous central banks experience lower inflation than others banian laney and willett 1983 and bade and parkin 1987 one reason for this may be that countries with autonomous central banks are less likely to monetize their deficits burdekin and wahar 1990 studies by political scientists have used measures of the strength of corporatist structures to explain macroeconomic outcomes cameron 1984 however neither economics nor political science research has employed measures of both central bank autonomy and the strength of corporatist structures to explain comparative inflation rates the present paper tests whether measures of corporatist structures and central bank autonomy explain the comparative inflation performance of eighteen industrialized countries this issue is of great importance for students of piecemeal monetary reform in countries where the central banking structure is susceptible to reorganization the results of this paper should inform parties who are active in the reformation and reorganization of central banks in lesser developed and nascent market economics throughout the world

how elastic are preferences for redistribution evidence from randomized survey experiments we analyze randomized online survey experiments providing interactive customized information on us income inequality the link between top income tax rates and economic growth and the estate tax the treatment has large effects on views about inequality but only slightly moves tax and transfer policy preferences an exception is the estate tax informing respondents of the small share of decedents who pay it doubles support for it the small effects for all other policies can be partially explained by respondents low trust in government and a disconnect between concerns about social issues and the public policies meant to address them jel d31 d72 h23 h24

rules of thumb for social learning this paper studies agents who consider the experiences of their neighbors in deciding which of two technologies to use we analyze two learning environments one in which the same technology is optimal for all players and another in which each technology is better for some of them in both environments players use exogenously specified rules of thumb that ignore historical data but may incorporate a tendency to use the more popular technology in some cases these naive rules can lead to fairly efficient decisions in the long run but adjustment can be slow when a superior technology is first introduced

fiscal flows and financial markets to what extent do they provide risk sharing within sweden andersson l fiscal flows and financial markets to what extent do they provide risk sharing within sweden regional studies the objective of this paper is to analyse the amount of risk sharing that takes place between regions in sweden it is found that the capital market is the largest source of risk sharing of an exogenous change in gross regional product in sweden still roughly 20 of a change in regional output is smoothed among the regions through the fiscal system there is also some evidence that there are regional differences in the sense that regions located in the south rely more on the capital market as a source of insurance against shocks in output while the tax and transfer systems provide a larger extent of risk sharing for regions located in the north andersson l flux fiscaux et marches financiers dans quelle mesure assurent ils le partage de risques en suede regional studies l objet de cette communication est d analyser l importance du partage de risques entre regions suedoises

how and when to use the political cycle to identify advertising effects this paper provides a critical analysis of how and when political advertising serves as a useful source of exogenous variation in product advertising

uncertain income and redistribution in a federal system abstract this paper considers income redistribution in a federal system where regions experience random shocks federal redistribution serves as insurance against jurisdiction specific shocks but provides a uniform assistance to the poor and cannot suit individual jurisdictions demands for redistribution consequently whether the federal government should redistribute depends on the advantage of pooling the risk and the disadvantage of compromising different preferences for redistribution with mobile individuals federal redistribution loses its advantage because migration ensures the equalization of factor incomes between regions and because even local redistribution serves as insurance however local redistribution creates fiscal externalities and distorts the allocation of labor

norms and economic motivation in the swedish green electricity market abstract the purpose of this paper is to provide an econometric analysis of the most important determinants of swedish households choice to pay a price premium for green electricity we draw on recent developments in the literature on integrating norm motivated behavior into neoclassical consumer theory and assume that individuals have a preference for keeping a self image as a morally responsible person consumer behavior in the green market place will then be heavily determined by how purchases of different goods affect this self image the analysis is based on postal survey responses from 655 swedish households which are analyzed within a binary choice econometric framework the results indicate that the impact of choosing green on the household budget largely influences the choice between green and brown electricity as does the degree of perceived personal responsibility for the issue and the felt ability to affect the outcome in a positive way we find limited support for the notion that perceptions about others behavior in general affect individual moral norms and ultimately expressed behavior but this is also complemented by the influence of explicit social influence the difficulty in observing others purchases makes it however difficult to distinguish between social and moral norms in the case of green electricity

the european central bank independence accountability and strategy a review this paper reviews research on central banking and monetary policy with special emphasis on the position of the future european central bank nowadays it is often thought that an independent central bank with an explicit mandate to aim for price stability constitutes an important institutional device to assure price stability indeed the ecb will be one of the most independent central banks as follows from the codings of various indicators measuring legal independence still it does not follow straightforwardly from the literature that the statute of the ecb is optimal it is also argued that the accountability of the ecb is poorly arranged for in comparison with that of several national central banks finally the discussion about the monetary strategy of the ecb is reviewed

inflation targeting in latin america toward a monetary union this paper examines how monetary policy decisions in brazil regarding short term interest rates have affected the term structure of interest rates we apply an event study methodology in two distinct periods between january 2000 and august 2003 right after the implementation of the inflation targeting in brazil and between september 2003 and july 2008 the main results are 1 the surprise effects have decreased 2 the explanation power has increased in the second period indicating enhancement of monetary policy 3 market participants adjust their expectations with greater advance 4 the surprise effects of decisions on short term rates on the term structure of interest rates are now close to those found in the usa and germany but higher to those found in the uk and italy therefore the results indicate that fixed income market expectations are better adjusted to the central bank anti inflationary policy

variation in central bank independence across countries some provisional empirical evidence in this paper seven hypotheses to explain variation in central bank independence across countries are tested the predictions based upon the theory that delegation of authority by politicians to the central bank is used as a commitment device are not supported central bank independence is not higher the larger the employment motivated inflationary bias the higher political instability or the larger the government debt central bank independence is positively related to historical inflation experience and negatively with political instability we do only find limited support for the view that countries with a universal banking system and countries whose central banks do not regulate financial institutions have more independent central banks

state dependence and alternative explanations for consumer inertia for many consumer packaged goods products researchers have documented inertia in brand choice a form of persistence whereby consumers have a higher probability of choosing a product that they have purchased in the past using data on margarine and refrigerated orange juice purchases we show that the finding of inertia is robust to flexible controls for preference heterogeneity and not due to autocorrelated taste shocks thus the inertia is at least partly due to structural not spurious state dependence we explore three economic explanations for the observed structural state dependence preference changes due to past purchases or consumption experiences which induce a form of loyalty search and learning our data are consistent with loyalty but not with search or learning properly distinguishing among the dierent sources of inertia is important for policy analysis because the alternative sources of inertia imply qualitative dierences in firm s pricing incentives and lead to quantitatively dierent equilibrium

loan collateral corporate investment and business cycle abstract collateral and loan rates are observed to be highly cyclical in their use for bank lending the effects of such cyclicality on corporate investment are analyzed in this paper using a dynamic model we find that more collateral causes firms to select riskier safer projects if the loan rate rises above falls below the expected investment return we show that the incentive effect of loan rates becomes stronger with greater collateral with the two credit terms having larger incentive effects on lower quality firms these results offer a new explanation for why lenient collateral policies are associated with rising loan rates in economic upturns but stricter collateral requirements come with falling loan rates during downturns

the response of drug expenditure to nonlinear contract design evidence from medicare part d we study the demand response to non linear price schedules using data on insurance contracts and prescription drug purchases in medicare part d we exploit the kink in individuals budget set created by the famous donut hole where insurance becomes discontinuously much less generous on the margin to provide descriptive evidence of the drug purchase response to a price increase we then specify and estimate a simple dynamic model of drug use that allows us to quantify the spending response along the entire non linear budget set we use the model for counterfactual analysis of the increase in spending from filling the donut hole as will be required by 2020 under the affordable care act in our baseline model which considers spending decisions within a single year we estimate that filling the donut hole will increase annual drug spending by about 150 or about 8 percent about one quarter of this spending increase reflects anticipatory behavior coming from beneficiaries whose spending prior to the policy change would leave them short of reaching the donut hole we also present descriptive evidence of cross year substitution of spending by individuals who reach the kink which motivates a simple extension to our baseline model that allows in a highly stylized way for individuals to engage in such cross year substitution our estimates from this extension suggest that a large share of the 150 drug spending increase could be attributed to cross year substitution and the net increase could be as little as 45 per year

the limits of independence and the policy of the ecb it is argued that the european central bank s independence is not as secure as it seems and that as a result it has appreciable institutional incentives to protect and enhance its position it follows that its behaviour should not be understood as being solely determined by the pursuit of price stability one consequence is that certain points on which it has been criticised on the basis that its approach makes for ineffective monetary policy might be better understood as often effective attempts to protect its position another is that making a central bank or any other institution completely independent may be much harder than it seems and failed attempts which come close are not necessarily to be preferred even by the advocates of independence to less ambitious designs

fiscal flows in the united states and canada lessons for monetary union in europe regional flows of federal taxes and transfers within the united states and canada are used to analyze long term fiscal flows the redistributive element and short term responses to regional business cycles the stabilization element in the united states long run flows amount to 22 cents in the dollar while the stabilization effect is 31 cents in the dollar in canada the redistributive effect is larger 39 cents and the stabilization effect smaller 17 cents federal flows appears to depend on the institutional structure of the country concerned however in both countries the redistributive element is considerably larger than the amounts involved in the ec structural funds program as for stabilization national fiscal policies in the ec appear to have been as effective as federal governments in the united states and canada in cushioning shocks to incomes

advertising effects in presidential elections presidential elections provide both an important context in which to study advertising and a setting that mitigates the challenges of dynamics and endogeneity we use the 2000 and 2004 general elections to analyze the effect of market level advertising on county level vote shares the results indicate significant positive effects of advertising exposures both instrumental variables and fixed effects alter the ad coefficient advertising elasticities are smaller than are typical for branded goods yet significant enough to shift election outcomes for example if advertising were set to zero and all other factors held constant three states electoral votes would have changed parties in 2000 given the narrow margin of victory in 2000 this shift would have resulted in a different president

two fallacies concerning central bank independence this paper takes issue with two basic conclusions prevalent in the literature on central bank behavior first the paper argues that it is inappropriate to presume that central banks will in the absence of any precommitment technology necessarily behave in a discretionary fashion that implies an inflationary bias since there is no functional connection between average rates of money creation or inflation and policy responsiveness to cyclical disturbances it is entirely feasible for the bias to be avoided in other words there is no necessary tradeoff between flexibility and commitment second to the extent that the absence of any absolute precommitment technology is nevertheless a problem it will apply to a consolidated central bank plus government entity as well as to the central bank alone thus contracts between governments and central banks do not overcome the motivation for dynamic inconsistency they merely relocate it this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

conflict defense spending and the number of nations abstract this paper provides a formal model of endogenous border formation and choice of defense spending in a world with international conflict we examine both the case of democratic governments and of dictatorships the model is consistent with three observations first breakup of countries should follow a reduction in the likelihood of international conflicts second the number of regional conflicts between smaller countries may increase as a result of the breakup of larger countries third the size of the peace dividend the reduction in defense spending in a more peaceful world is limited by the process of country breakup

dynamic risksharing in the united states and europe abstract we use a panel var model to improve upon the existing methodologies to analyze interregional risksharing and consumption smoothing channels first we endogenize the output process within a more general multi equation framework capturing the dynamic feedback between output and various smoothing channels second in line with dynamic general equilibrium open economy models of risksharing we exploit impulse response functions to trace the role of each smoothing channel over time in the presence of different structural shocks temporary vs permanent and output vs smoothing channels in the application to the us and oecd countries we find different dynamic properties of different smoothing channels we compare our results with the predictions of standard risksharing and consumption theories and tackle some of the puzzles in the literature such as the international risksharing puzzle and the consumption output correlation puzzle we are also able to address such policy issues as whether fiscal stabilizers have been substitutes or complements for financial market diversification activities and whether further financial market integration is likely to provide countries with more shock absorption tools a key result is the strong substitutability between capital and credit smoothing in the us and between fiscal and credit smoothing in the oecd

consumer heterogeneity and paid search effectiveness a large scale field experiment internet advertising has been the fastest growing advertising channel in recent years with paid search ads comprising the bulk of this revenue we present results from a series of large scale field experiments done at ebay that were designed to measure the causal effectiveness of paid search ads because search clicks and purchase intent are correlated we show that returns from paid search are a fraction of non experimental estimates as an extreme case we show that brand keyword ads have no measurable short term benefits for non brand keywords we find that new and infrequent users are positively influenced by ads but that more frequent users whose purchasing behavior is not influenced by ads account for most of the advertising expenses resulting in average returns that are negative

economics and identity this paper considers how identity a person s sense of self affects economic outcomes we incorporate the psychology and sociology of identity into an economic model of behavior in the utility function we propose identity is associated with different social categories and how people in these categories should behave we then construct a simple game theoretic model showing how identity can affect individual interactions the paper adapts these models to gender discrimination in the workplace the economics of poverty and social exclusion and the household division of labor in each case the inclusion of identity substantively changes conclusions of previous economic analysis

ask your doctor direct to consumer advertising of pharmaceuticals we measure the impact of direct to consumer television advertising dtca by drug manufacturers our identification strategy exploits shocks to local advertising markets generated by the political advertising cycle and a regulatory intervention affecting a single product we find evidence of significant business stealing effects among branded advertised drugs in addition we show positive spillovers from drug advertisements to non advertised competitors in the same class we decompose the effect and show it is primarily due to new customers finally we provide evidence that dtca is cost effective from a societal standpoint in our setting

factor mobility risk and redistribution in the welfare state economic integration reduces the costs of factor mobility producing efficiency gains and contributing to equalization of net factor returns this raises the cost of income redistribution policy thus threatening a basic function of the welfare state a simple model of costly factor mobility under uncertainty shows that greater factor mobility enables factor owners to pool industry specific region specific or occupation specific risks due to uncertain technology or terms of trade economic integration may thus reduce some of the potential social insurance benefits of redistributive policy

regional risk sharing provided by the fiscal system empirical evidence from sweden andersson l 2004 regional risk sharing provided by the fiscal system empirical evidence from sweden reg studies38 269 280 the objective of this paper is to analyse risk sharing among municipalities in sweden in terms of how the central government smooths personal income via the tax and transfer systems using panel data for the period 1983 2001 we find that the national tax and transfer systems mitigate an adverse shock to income of 1 krona so that the disposable income falls by 90 ore on average however there are differences across regions where the effect on disposable income varies between 78 and 93 ore in the krona a sensitivity analysis of the stability of the estimates over time suggests that the adjustment of the rules of the transfer system in 1991 associated with the tax reform the same year may have influenced the importance of national transfers as a means of absorbing risk while the evidence of a structural break due to the tax reform itself is less conclusive andersson l 2

systemic risk in the netting system abstract in interbank clearing networks a bank experiencing sudden liquidity or solvency problems may prevent settlement of the claims of its direct creditors which may in turn jeopardize settlement of other institutions the paper presents an empirical assessment of the potential size of this domino effect in the italian netting system a participant s settlement failure is simulated and the impact on the rest of the system measured on average only about 4 percent of participants were large enough to trigger systemic crises less than 1 percent defaulted due to systemic reasons the average monetary loss was less than 3 percent of the daily flow of funds through the clearing system similar simulations by other authors for the u s system yielded a much larger impact of systemic risk we argue that the difference is mainly due to the much smaller volume of funds flowing through the italian system and to structural differences

liability creating versus non liability creating fiscal stabilisation policies ricardian equivalence fiscal stabilisation and emu this paper looks at theoretical and empirical issues associated with the operation of fiscal stabilisers within an economy it argues that such stabilisers operate most effectively at a national rather than local level as differing cycles across regions tend to offset each other for the country as a whole national fiscal stabilisers are not associated with the same increase in future tax liabilities for the region as local ones accordingly the negative impact from the ricardian effects associated with these tax liabilities is smaller empirical work on data across canadian provinces indicates that local stabilisers are only one third to one half as effective as national stabilisers which create no future tax liability

exchange rate regimes and independent central banks a correlated choice of imperfectly credible institutions theory and empirical evidence show that low inflation is a precondition for economic growth independent central banks and fixed exchange rates are institutional mechanisms that help keep inflation low by lending monetary policy credibility to governments however the two institutions are commonly analyzed as substitutes that tie the hands of inflation prone governments thus the literature has difficulties describing why governments would adopt both institutions and the interaction between them this paper presents a model that allows policymakers the simultaneous choice of monetary institutions and shows that imperfectly credible institutions will overlap when exchange rates are fixed but adjustable and central bank independence is not fully ascertainable governments choose both institutions more generally the paper generates hypotheses about the conditions that make fixed exchange rates and independent central banks complements or substitutes thus contributing to an explanation of the diversity of global monetary institutions in the post bretton woods period

decoy effects in choice experiments and contingent valuation asymmetric dominance while a dominated choice involves a situation in which one option clearly dominates another on all relevant dimensions an asymmetrically dominated choice typically arises where at least two options do not dominate each other and one but not both of those options does dominate a third option we demonstrate that the introduction of such an asymmetrically dominated option can have a significant impact upon choices between non dominated options within the same choice set for non market goods furthermore we show that this effect can then translate into significant impacts upon subsequent valuations for those non dominated options

impure altruism in dictators giving abstract we design an experiment to test whether incomplete crowding out in dictator games can be rationalized by the impurely altruistic preferences by giving the recipients an endowment of varying levels we create an environment in which crowding out may occur we find that the behavior of 66 of the dictators can be rationalized by the impurely altruistic utility function

globalization pressures and the state the worldwide spread of central bank independence the authors examine the impact of globalization on state structures in the specific instance of the central bank following the world system world society and neoinstitutional perspectives in sociology they assume that states are in cultural political and economic competition with each other thereby seeking to maintain their position and status frequently by adopting organizational forms or practices that make them isomorphic with their environment the authors predict that countries boost the independence of their central bank from the political power as their exposure to foreign trade investment and multilateral lending increases they also model the cross national dynamic process of diffusion of central bank independence by examining the impact of cohesive and role equivalent trade relationships between countries they find support for their hypotheses with information on 71 countries between 1990 and 2000

does a federal country need federal transfers when it has labour mobility sequeira t n and lopes a f does a federal country need federal transfers when it has labour mobility regional studies this work empirically tests optimum currency area theory for members of a given monetary union the united states the united states is recognized as a country where labour mobility between states is high this paper jointly assesses the consequences of having federal transfers and labour mobility in terms of the states cyclical output it is concluded that federal transfers undoubtedly contribute to increase cyclical output however out migration may increase or decrease cyclical output depending on certain conditions as federal transfers proved to be much more important than migration the answer to the question in the paper s title is yes sequeira t n et lopes a f un pays federal a t il besoin des transferts federaux quand il est deja dote de la mobilite du travail regional studies cet article cherche a tester empiriquement la theorie des zones monetaires optimale

togetheror separately issues on the costs and benefits of political and fiscal unions abstract around the world one observes a tendency toward political separatism the economic literature generally but not always emphasizes several benefits of large fiscal and therefore political jurisdictions in this paper we discuss several politico economic arguments which reconcile this tension between normative economic models and empirical observations

the unfavorable economics of measuring the returns to advertising twenty five large field experiments with major u s retailers and brokerages most reaching millions of customers and collectively representing 2 8 million in digital advertising expenditure reveal that measuring the returns to advertising is difficult the median confidence interval on return on investment is over 100 percentage points wide detailed sales data show that relative to the per capita cost of the advertising individual level sales are very volatile a coefficient of variation of 10 is common hence informative advertising experiments can easily require more than 10 million person weeks making experiments costly and potentially infeasible for many firms despite these unfavorable economics randomized control trials represent progress by injecting new unbiased information into the market the inference challenges revealed in the field experiments also show that selection bias due to the targeted nature of advertising is a crippling concern for widely employed observational methods jel codes l10 m37 c93

the effect of medicare part d on pharmaceutical prices and utilization prescription drug expenditures represent the most rapidly growing component of health care spending increasing from 5 percent of health care spending in 1980 to more than 10 percent by 2005 centers for medicare and medicaid services cms 2007a further almost 60 percent of all prescriptions in the united states are filled for beneficiaries of medicare medicaid and other government programs rapid innovation in new pharmaceuticals has contributed substantially to quality of life and longevity in the us frank lichtenberg 1996 these facts combined indicate that government procurement schemes are critical both in determining government expenditure on pharmaceuticals and in stimulating innovation of new treatments in this paper we show that the institutions and mechanisms used by the government to pur chase prescription drugs can strongly affect market outcomes by institutions we have in mind large buyer groups structured incentives for patients to consume certain products and the devel opment and use of formularies a formulary is a mechanism that allows a buyer to identify a therapeutically similar treatment as a viable substitute for a patented treatment and to create price competition due to the ability to substitute away from the more expensive product when bargaining with the seller of a patented product the ability to shift demand to a substitute drug is a powerful negotiating tool our paper provides evidence for what we consider a surprising outcome in the case of the new prescription drug program for medicare enrollees moving consumers from cash paying status to membership in an insured group lowers optimal prices for branded prescription drugs below what they otherwise would be this is surprising because the standard effect of insurance is to create inelastic demand and therefore elicit higher prices from a seller with market power duggan and scott morton 2006 however the insurers that we study bundle insurance with a formulary and other mechanisms to create elastic demand an individual consumer typically does not know which drugs are acceptable therapeutic substitutes the consumer s physician typi cally has poor knowledge of prices especially negotiated prices and any one consumer is too small a share of demand to negotiate with a pharmaceutical company a prescription drug plan can potentially surmount all three hurdles our evidence leads us to conclude that the formulary and other mechanisms perform the spe cial role of allowing buyers to move market share among drugs with patent protection thereby raising cross price elasticities and lowering purchase prices or reducing price increases for branded drugs this result contrasts with the common intuition that an uninsured consumer

adverse selection and inertia in health insurance markets when nudging hurts this paper investigates consumer inertia in health insurance markets where adverse selection is a potential concern we leverage a major change to insurance provision that occurred at a large firm to identify substantial inertia and develop and estimate a choice model that also quantifies risk preferences and ex ante health risk we use these estimates to study the impact of policies that nudge consumers toward better decisions by reducing inertia when aggregated these improved individual level choices substantially exacerbate adverse selection in our setting leading to an overall reduction in welfare that doubles the existing welfare loss from adverse selection jel d82 g22 i13 a number of potential impediments stand in the way of efficient health insur ance markets the most noted of these is adverse selection first studied by akerlof 1970 and rothschild and stiglitz 1976 in insurance markets prices reflect the expected risk costs of the insured pool whether the reason is price regulation or private information when insurers cannot price all risk characteristics riskier consumers choose more comprehensive health plans this causes the equilibrium prices of these plans to rise and healthier enrollees to select less comprehensive coverage than they would otherwise prefer

nudges that hurt those already hurting distributional and unintended effects of salience nudges abstract nudges are becoming increasingly popular policy tools yet distributional effects of nudges are largely unknown we first design an economic laboratory experiment to examine the incidence of an opportunity cost reminder nudge a salience nudge designed to curb spending while accounting for heterogeneity in emotional responses specifically the pain of paying pain of paying is optimal for unconflicted consumers but too low for spendthrifts and too high for tightwads causing sub optimal spending our empirical results imply the nudge increases pain of paying for tightwads thereby reducing spending by tightwads who already spend too little while it entirely fails to reduce the spending of those who would have benefited from a spending reduction spendthrifts overall the nudge therefore might reduce consumer welfare we next examine if the adverse impact of the opportunity cost reminder nudge is explained by a general tendency for all nudges to exacerbate peoples underlying spending preferences we specifically test whether a salience nudge designed to boost spending correspondingly adversely affects spendthrifts we unexpectedly find that subjects perceive the spending booster nudge as a spending reminder which again reduces spending by tightwads only while not affecting spending by the other consumer types our results highlight two important aspects of salience nudges given the complexity of consumer emotions and information processing salience nudges can have undesired welfare effects and the direction of their impact may be the opposite of what was intended

do we really want an independent central bank the issue of an independent central bank is assessed in the context of experience in the u k economy the historical role of the bank of england is examined revealing that the success of anti inflation policy depends on the exchange rate regime as well as on the institutional arrangements holding between the bank and government inflation targets are discussed but independence is also addressed by seeing how other targets such as nominal gdp might perform the theoretical arguments for and against an independent central bank are discussed in detail it is argued that partial independence where the central bank enjoys autonomy in relatively good states and is overridden in bad states is the preferred form of independence attention is drawn to the costs arising owing to a lack of coordination of policy when the finance ministry may compete against the central bank in the case where the latter is independent copyright 1994 by oxford university press

politics and business cycles in industrial democracies politics alberto alesina influences from political competition on macroeconomic policy are often thought to be a source of economic fluctuations politicians are described as being driven by two not mutually exclusive main motivations they want to be reelected and they harbour political or ideological biases when such theories are confronted with actual cycles in a number of industrial countries the pattern of inflation unemployment output and budget deficits indicates that partisan policy making is a fairly widespread phenomenon with more limited evidence that electoral preoccupations result in major fluctuations the combination of partisanship and electoral cycles may easily result in socially undesirable outcomes in particular the degree of politico institutional stability and the independence of the central bank have a bearing on macroeconomic outcomes these observations raise a number of important questions about the design of political institutions

political and monetary institutions and public financial policies in the industrial countries institutions and policies vittorio grilli donato masciandaro and guido tabellini why do countries as similar as the industrialized oecd countries go through such different experience in terms of public deficits and debts or in terms of inflation the answer cannot come from macroeconomic policy responses to different disturbances nor from the principles of optimal taxation but rather from politics this article focuses on the role that particular institutions exert in providing constraints and incentives which shape the actions of policymakers the electoral process and political traditions affect the ability of governments to deal with deficits and mounting debts what seems to matter most it is found is the effect of the durability of governments governments with short horizons act myopically and never quite tackle the hard choices such governments typically exist in countries with an electoral system favouring many small political parties central bank independence promotes low inflation with no apparent costs in terms of real economic performance irrespective of the political institutions in fact there is no link between monetary and fiscal discipline these findings carry powerful implications for countries facing high indebtedness or stubborn inflation but also for the construction of the european economic and monetary union

energy conservation nudges and environmentalist ideology evidence from a randomized residential electricity field experiment nudges are being widely promoted to encourage energy conservation we show that while the electricity conservation nudge of providing feedback to households on own and peers home electricity usage works with liberals it can backfire with conservatives our regression estimates predict that a democratic household that pays for electricity from renewable sources that donates to environmental groups and that lives in a liberal neighborhood reduces its consumption by 3 percent in response to this nudge a republican household that does not pay for electricity from renewable sources and that does not donate to environmental groups increases its consumption by 1 percent

guilt in games a clear conscience is a good pillow why does this old proverb contain an insight the emotion of guilt holds a key psychologists report that the prototypical cause of guilt would be the infliction of harm loss or distress on a relationship partner roy baumeister arlene m stillwell and todd f heatherton 1994 245 june price tangney 1995 moreover guilt is unpleasant and may affect behavior to render the associated pangs counterfactual baumeister stillwell and heatherton state if people feel guilt for hurting their partners and for failing to live up to their expectations they will alter their behavior to avoid guilt in ways that seem likely to maintain and strengthen the relationship avoided guilt is the down of the sound sleeper s bolster how can guilt be modeled how are human interaction and economic outcomes influenced we offer a formal approach for providing answers start with an extensive game form which associates a monetary outcome with each end node say that player i lets player j down if as a result of i s choice of strategy j gets a lower monetary payoff than j expected to get before play started player i s guilt may depend on how much he lets j down player i s guilt may also depend on how much j believes i believes he lets j down we develop techniques to analyze equilibria when players are motivated in part by a desire to avoid guilt the intellectual home for our exercise is what has been called psychological game theory this framework originally developed by john geanakoplos david pearce and ennio stacchetti 1989 and recently extended by battigalli and dufwenberg 2005 henceforth b d allows players utilities to depend on beliefs about choices states of nature

does conservatism matter a time series approach to central bank behaviour empirical studies crediting independent and conservative central banks with lowering inflation and inflation volatility have been criticised for their focus on policy outcomes instead of policies and for their unsystematic conflation of independence and conservatism we present results from time series models for the german bundesbank that avoid these shortfalls conservatism matters in the following sense i more conservative bundesbank councils tend to react stronger to changes in inflation and output and ii an increase in conservatism leads to a more activist stabilisation policy this is in line with simple policy models incorporating economic persistence with implementation lags for monetary policy

establishing a central bank issues in europe and lessons from the us list of figures list of tables preface list of conference participants 1 introduction part i the design of a central bank 2 designing a central bank for europe a cautionary tale from the early years of the federal reserve system 3 the european central bank reshaping monetary politics in europe 4 the ecb a bank or a monetary policy rule part ii transition from national central banks to a european central bank 5 hard erm hard ecu and european monetary union 6 voting

externalities and corrective policies in experimental markets this paper reports on the behaviour of simple laboratory markets which have an externality experiences with these markets provide some help in answering two broad questions 1 do markets with externalities behave in accordance with the law of supply and demand 2 how do the pollution tax pollution standard and pollution licenses compare as methods for correcting the externality