an empirical analysis of life cycle fertility and female labor supply this paper examines us household fertility and female labor supply over the life cycle using data from the panel study of income dynamics the authors investigate how maternal time inputs and market expenditures on offspring as well as the benefits they yield their parents vary with ages of offspring and influence female labor supply and contraceptive behavior the econometric framework combines a female labor supply model and a contraceptive choice index function it also accounts for the fact that conceptions are not perfectly controllable events using longitudinal data on married couples the authors estimate these equations and test alternative specifications of the technologies governing child care the findings suggest that while parents cannot perfectly control conceptions variations in child care costs do affect life cycle spacing of births furthermore the results demonstrate the gains of modeling the linkages between female labor supply and fertility behavior at the household level authors modified

why do you hate me on the survival of spite abstract spite involves harming others without good reasons it may survive in small populations or on markets with strategic substitutes we consider situations where selfishness helps efficiency here spite endangers efficiency but is wiped out by evolutionary forces

survival at the center the stability of minimum differentiation abstract we model a hotelling market with multidimensional product differentiation in an evolutionary framework both evolutionary stability in the sense of schaffer 1989 and stochastic stability following kandori et al 1993 young 1993 are analyzed it is shown that firms move towards the center in product space i e a principle of minimum differentiation on all dimensions of the product space applies

life cycle employment and fertility across institutional environments in this paper we formulate a dynamic utility maximization model of female labor force participation and fertility choices and estimate approximate decision rules using data on married women in italy spain and france the pattern of estimated state dependence effects across countries is consistent with aggregate patterns in part time employment and child care availability suggesting that labor market rigidities and lack of child care options are important sources of state dependence simulations of the model reveal that italian and spanish women would substantially increase their participation rates were they to face the french institutional environment

subsidised training and youth employment distinguishing unobserved heterogeneity from state dependence in labour market histories using the 1990 2 wave of the french labour force survey to study the employment histories of young people i consider transitions between six labour market states employment contracts whether permanent or temporary unemployment training education and non participation i use a fixed effect estimator in a dynamic multinomial logit model which can accommodate any form of unobserved heterogeneity in levels this analysis can be extended to markov processes of any order i relate heterogeneity components to individual and family characteristics by using simulated maximum likelihood methods these procedures allow evaluation of the effects training schemes have on youth employment histories

the role of labor and marriage markets preference heterogeneity and the welfare system in the life cycle decisions of black hispanic and white women using data from the nlsy79 we structurally estimate a dynamic model of the life cycle decisions of young women the women make sequential joint decisions about school attendance work marriage fertility and welfare participation we use the model to perform counterfactual simulations designed to shed light on three questions 1 how much of observed minority majority differences in behavior can be attributed to differences in labor market opportunities marriage market opportunities and preference heterogeneity 2 how does the welfare system interact with these factors to augment those differences 3 how can new cohorts that grow up under the new welfare system temporary aid for needy families be expected to behave compared to older cohorts

gender gaps in unemployment rates in oecd countries in some oecd countries the male and female unemployment rates are very similar but in others notably the mediterranean countries the female unemployment rate is much higher than the male explaining these cross country differences is the subject of this article we show that in countries where there is a large gender gap in unemployment rates there is a gender gap in both flows from employment into unemployment and from unemployment into employment we conclude that differences in human capital accumulation between men and women interacted with labor market institutions is an important part of the explanation

state dependence serial correlation and heterogeneity in intertemporal labor force participation of married women a dynamic search framework is developed to analyze the intertemporal labor force participation behavior of married women using longitudinal data to allow for a rich dynamic structure the sensitivity to alternative distributional assumptions is evaluated using linear probability and probit models the dynamic probit models are estimated using maximum simulated likelihood msl estimation to overcome the computational difficulties inherent in maximum likelihood estimation of models with nontrivial error structures the results find that participation decisions are characterized by significant state dependence unobserved heterogeneity and negative serial correlation in the error component the hypothesis that fertility decisions are exogenous to women s participation decisions is rejected when dynamics are ignored however there is no evidence against this hypothesis in dynamic model specifications women s participation response is stronger to permanent than current nonlabor income reflecting unobserved taste factors

tax competition with two types of capital abstract we examine a tax competition model in which two types of mobile capital are taxed to fund local public goods when taxing land is not feasible we derive optimal tax rules and we find it is possible for localities to subsidize one type of capital

estimation and testing of the union wage effect using panel data we present estimates of the union wage effect controlling for unmeasured individual effects and subject the conventional fixed effects model to specification tests for psid men the union wage effect is 5 8 after controlling for person effects as opposed to 20 in cross section omnibus tests based on an unrestricted reduced form and instrumental variables tests based on differencing are consistent with conventional models tests based on comparing those who enter and leave union coverage provide evidence against the usual model we find evidence for interactions between union status and other variables even after controlling for person effects

the sensitivity of an empirical model of married women s hours of work to economic and statistical assumptions this study undertakes a systematic analysis of several theoretic and statistical assumption s used in many empirical models of female labor supply using a singl e data set psid 1975 labor supply data the author is able to replic ate most of the range of estimated income and substitution effects fo und in previous studies in this field he undertakes extensive specif ication tests and finds that most of this range should be rejected du e to statistical and model misspecifications the two most important assumptions appear to be the tobit assumption used to control for sel f selection into the labor force and exogeneity assumptions on the wi fe s wage rate and her labor market experience copyright 1987 by the econometric society

the evolution of preferences and competition a rationalization of veblen s theory of invidious comparisons we examine how preferences evolve by natural selection in a competitive environment similar to that characterizing much of our evolutionary past we find that the evolutionarily stable preferences in this context exhibit a concern not only for absolute payoffs but also for relative payoffs and that this intensifies the degree of competition relative to what obtains when players consider only absolute payoffs we argue that this has consequences for the equilibrium population size we argue that the premise of this analysis is consistent with the available anthropological evidence and that the prediction is broadly consistent with the findings of experimental game theory

intertemporal preferences and labor supply in this paper the authors examine whether nonseparable preference structures ar e important in characterizing life cycle labor supply using longitud inal data on prime age males from the panel study of income dynamics they estimate a model of life cycle leisure and consumption under un certainty in which intertemporal preferences are allowed to be nonsep arable in leisure the model tests several alternative specifications considered in the literature they investigate the robustness of the ir findings to certain forms of population heterogeneity and types of model misspecification across alternative specifications the autho rs find that the standard assumption of intertemporally separable pre ferences for leisure is not consistent with the data copyright 1988 by the econometric society

dynamic labour force participation of married women and endogenous work experience this paper presents and estimates a dynamic model of married women s labour force participation and fertility in which the effect of work experience on wages is explicitly taken into account because current participation alters future potential earnings the investment return to work will be an important factor in the current work decision in any forward looking behavioural model the model is estimated using the national longitudinal surveys mature women s cohort we use the estimates of our model to predict changes in the lifecycle patterns of employment due to changes in schooling fertility husband s income and the magnitude of the experience effect on wages we find that although work experience increases the disutility of further work the effect is overwhelmed by the positive effect of experience on wages leading to persistence in the employment patterns of these women in addition we find that an increase in young children and in husband s income substantially reduces participation while increased schooling has a powerful positive impact on participation this paper presents an estimable structural dynamic model of married women s labour force participation and fertility in which wages are stochastic and work experience or cumulative participation is endogeneous the model is structural in the sense that the parameters which are estimated are contained in the fundamental relationships governing behaviour namely the utility function and the constraints the model is contained in the class of models which describe the life cycle capital accumulation process with endogeneous labour supply such as weiss 1972 and heckman 1976 it is closest in spirit to that of weiss and gronau 1981 1 the basic feature of their model and ours is that labour market participation affects future wages which then affects future participation the investment return to current work will necessarily be taken into account in any forward looking optimizing model as weiss and gronau note estimates of labour supply models have ignored the inherent behavioural dynamics associated with a positive wageexperience profile there is no adequate empirical treatment of the human capital investment dimension of the labour force participation decision in the literature heckman and willis 1977 have studied a sequential discrete choice model of the labour force participation of married women in a reduced form framework their work

evolution in economic games abstract this paper examines the conditions under which evolutionary processes select equilibrium strategies of agents or firms under plausible dynamics optimal selection takes place provided that economic agents are small relative to the environment that is each such agent has a negligible effect on others payoffs however when this assumption is not met survival need not imply optimality examples in the contexts of bargaining bidding and market competition are presented

the specification and estimation of dynamic stochastic discrete choice models a survey our main goal is to quantify the returns to a career in the united states congress we specify a dynamic model of career decisions of a member of congress and estimate this model using a newly collected dataset given estimates of the structural model we

the sensitivity of labor supply parameter estimates to unobserved individual effects fixed and random effects estimates in a nonlinear model using panel data life cycle models of labor supply predict the presence of an unobserved individual effect in the labor supply equation that is correlated with observed explanatory variables leading to an omitted variables bias in the cross section i examine the sensitivity of parameter estimates to the presence of these effects using fixed and random effect tobit models the estimated effects of children are too large in the cross section the estimated intertemporal substitution elasticity ranges from 1 1 to 1 7 the results are similar for fixed and random effects models and for models using different specifications of the dependent variable

banking competition and market efficiency this paper analyses competition among financial intermediaries in a set up where financial intermediaries economize on duplicated monitoring diamond 1984 we analyse two different games in which both direct trade and indirect trade are available we show that in general equilibrium outcomes are inefficient so that diamond s efficiency result is fragile intermediation may increase rather than decrease transaction costs disintermediation may also be an equilibrium we discuss the role played by the nonconvexities of banks technology and that played by competition for deposits and loans

evolution to equilibrium in an asymmetric oligopoly with differentiated goods abstract we present results on finite population evolutionarily stable strategies esss and stochastically stable states for a model of evolution with an imitative rule of strategy choice in an asymmetric oligopoly with differentiated goods and two groups of firms one group of low cost firms and one of high cost firms the firms play price setting and quantity setting oligopoly games under linear demand functions we will show that the stochastically stable state in a price setting oligopoly and that in a quantity setting oligopoly coincide

children and household economic behavior this paper looks at some of the methodological issues that arise in modeling the effects of children on household behavior and presents some estimates for selected areas for our purposes household behavior will be taken to refer to household decisions on labor supply the allocation of expenditure to different periods and the decision as to what to do with the difference between income and expenditure i shall be concerned mainly with the effects of dependent children and i restrict attention largely to western societies excerpt

evolution in the finitely repeated prisoner s dilemma abstract this paper examines some aspects of evolutionary dynamic behavior in the finitely repeated prisoner s dilemma the fitness of cooperation found in the best known simulation of this type that by robert axelrod stems from strategy set restrictions the game used for the simulation has a continuum of pure cooperation equilibria and no pure defection equilibrium some new simulations are presented here for the finitely repeated game although cooperation is ultimately exploited and extinguished dynamic paths can pseudo converge in ways that allow partial cooperation to flourish for extended periods of time

are profit maximisers the best survivors a darwinian model of economic natural selection abstract this paper demonstrates that the friedman conjecture that profit maximisation summarises appropriately the conditions for firm survival is not generally true if firms have market power profit maximisers are not necessarily the best survivors because of the possibility of spiteful behaviour of the following kind say a firm forgoes profit maximisation and thus decreases its survival chances but its deviation from maximisation harms its profit maximising competitors more than itself though the firm will be less likely to survive than it would if it maximised its profits it will still be more likely to survive than its competitors

profiles of fertility labour supply and wages of married women a complete life cycle model of all the major economic and demographic events in the postwar united states period the trends in fertility and female labour supply stand out as among the most dramatic fertility rates after their depression lows rose unexpectedly after world war ii far more than was anticipated as an adjustment to the war and continued to rise until the late 1950 s and early 1960 s when they again took an unexpected turn downward all the way to today s historical lows female labour force participation rates continuing their historical climb grew throughout the postwar period at an increasing pace by 4 percentage points during the 1950 s by 5 percentage points during the 1960 s and by 8 percentage points during the 1970 s these two trends are of course closely related for most married women have traditionally spent at least some minimal time out of the labour force while caring for their own children thus for example the slower growth rate of labour force participation rates in the 1950 s is probably connected with the higher fertility rates in that period in this paper a complete model of female labour supply and fertility choice is constructed and estimated the model is more complete than previous models in several respects first labour supply and fertility decisions are modelled as completely joint in the same sense as the consumption of two goods is joint second both are modelled as life cycle decisions that is as decisions regarding sequences of labour supply and fertility events rather than levels of the same hence the timing of both is important third the life cycle path of wage rates is made endogenous to the model given a wage function showing the effect of work experience on future wages the path of wages is determined automatically by the chosen path of labour supply which in turn is related to fertility decisions that require some period of non work econometrically the three profiles for labour supply fertility and wages are estimated with a full information maximum likelihood technique that solves several econometric problems such as the problem of heterogeneity of tastes the selectivity problem of missing wage rates for non workers and the problem of simultaneous equations bias the value of constructing a complete model is best seen by briefly reviewing past work in this area the modern literature in the area is based upon the work of becker

binary choice with binary endogenous regressors in panel data this article considers the estimation of the causal effect of fertility on female labor force participation equations my main concern is to examine two considerations the endogeneity of fertility and the impact of controlling for unobserved heterogeneity and for predetermined existing children using psid data a switching binary panel data model that accounts for selectivity bias as well as for other forms of time invariant unobserved heterogeneity is estimated individual effects are allowed to be correlated with the explanatory variables which can be predetermined as opposed to strictly exogenous family sex composition is used as an instrument for exogenous fertility movements the results indicate that exogeneity assumptions of children variables induce a downward bias in absolute value in the estimated negative effect of fertility on participation although the failure to account for unobserved heterogeneity overstates this effect moreover stronger effects of fertility are found when existing c