prospect theory explains newsvendor behavior the role of reference points current understanding in operations management is that prospect theory as a theory of decision making under uncertainty cannot systematically explain the ordering behavior observed in experiments on the newsvendor problem we suggest this is because the newsvendor s reference point is assumed to be the status quo i e zero payoff we propose an alternative based on newsvendor s salient payoffs and show that prospect theory can in fact account for experimental results this paper was accepted by serguei netessine operations management

follower payoffs in symmetric duopoly games this paper compares the leader and follower payoff in a duopoly game as they arise in sequential play with the nash payoff in simultaneous play if the game is symmetric has a unique symmetric nash equilibrium and players payoffs are monotonic in the opponent s choice along their own best reply function then the follower payoff is either higher than the leader payoff or even lower than in the simultaneous game this gap for the possible follower payoff had not been observed in earlier duopoly models of endogenous timing

loss aversion and rationality in the newsvendor problem under recourse option abstract risk neutral assumption in the newsvendor problem under recourse option predicts the order quantity insensitive to the selling price and risk aversion modeled through common utility functions gives decreasing order quantity with increasing selling price in this paper we consider loss aversion to model the choice preference of the decision maker in the newsvendor problem under recourse option and prove that loss aversion predicts the rational ordering behavior of the newsvendor with respect to the changes in price and cost parameters further we find that loss aversion can significantly improve the performance of utility function based models in predicting the rational behavior we extend the analysis to a supply chain setting and establish coordinating contract between a loss averse retailer facing a newsvendor problem and a risk neutral supplier under recourse option we find that the contract parameter does not depend on the loss aversion hence the same contract can be implemented with retailers with different levels of loss aversion

investing in farmers the impacts of farmer field schools in relation to integrated pest management public policy in developing countries has failed to invest in educating farmers on how to deal with variable agro ecosystems and a changing world here we present an assessment of a participatory training approach in changing crop protection by farmers from chemically dependent to more sustainable practices in line with the tenets of integrated pest management ipm we review the evidence from the studies on an educational investment designed to capacitate farmers to apply ipm and discuss these data in the light of an on going policy debate concerning cost effectiveness the results indicate substantial immediate and developmental benefits of participation in farmer field schools

prospect theory and the newsvendor problem the newsvendor problem is a fundamental decision problem in operations management various independent experimental studies in laboratory settings have shown similar deviations from the theoretical optimal order quantity we clarify that prospect theory a prevalent framework for decision making under uncertainty cannot explain the consistent empirical findings this paper was accepted by yossi aviv operations management

salient compromises in the newsvendor game abstract the newsvendor problem denotes the puzzle that a retailer facing an uncertain demand for some product underreacts to profit margins and hence adjusts the order quantity toward the expected demand due to its range of applications in operations management this problem has drawn much interest in recent years various articles have tried to reconcile the newsvendor problem with loss aversion under ad hoc assumptions on the underlying reference point we instead argue that the newsvendor problem is an application of the well studied compromise effect as the compromise effect is based on violations of the iia axiom we argue that models of context dependent behavior such as salience theory better explain newsvendor like behavior than loss aversion based models we conduct a novel experiment which allows us to clearly distinguish between the role of loss aversion and salience and find strong support for the latter thereby we also add to the agenda of comparing loss aversion based models and salience theory

behavioral responses to risk in rural china does risk perpetuate poverty in a credit constrained economy jalan and ravallion study portfolio and other behavioral responses to measured risk using household panel data for rural china one quarter of wealth is held in unproductive liquid forms but only a small share of this appears to be a precaution against income risk the authors estimate that eliminating income risk would reduce the share of wealth held in liquid form by less than 1 percentage point moreover that effect is confined largely to middle income groups high income households do not it seems need to hold unproductive cautionary wealth and the poor probably cannot afford to do so the authors find no evidence that income risk discourages schooling but risk does inhibit the out migration of labor generally the results provide only limited support for the idea that uninsured risks promote unproductive portfolio behavior in this setting there is such an effect but it is small in magnitude and cannot be deemed an important cause of poverty

china s uneven progress against poverty while the incidence of extreme poverty in china fell dramatically over 1980 2001 progress was uneven over time and across provinces rural areas accounted for the bulk of the gains to the poor though migration to urban areas helped the pattern of growth mattered rural economic growth was far more important to national poverty reduction than urban economic growth agriculture played a far more important role than the secondary or tertiary sources of gross domestic product gdp rising inequality within the rural sector greatly slowed poverty reduction provinces starting with relatively high inequality saw slower progress against poverty due both to lower growth and a lower growth elasticity of poverty reduction taxation of farmers and inflation hurt the poor external trade had little short term impact

are there dynamic gains from a poor area development program poor area development programs in which the government transfers extra resources to unusually poor areas have been widely used to fight poverty there has been some research on such programs but little is known about their impact on household living standards over time the authors address the issue for a sizable poor area development program in rural china china s program had a significant impact on rural living standards in the targeted areas of the sample the consumption growth model suggests that households living in the targeted areas had a higher rate of consumption growth than one would have otherwise expected nonetheless the authors found that while the gains in growth were enough to prevent an absolute decline in average living standards they were not enough to reverse the strong underlying divergent tendencies in the rural economy

students today teachers tomorrow identifying constraints on the provision of education with an estimated 115 million children not attending primary school in the developing world increasing access to education is critical resource constraints limit the effectiveness of demand based subsidies this paper focuses on the importance of a supply side factor the availability of low cost teachers and the resulting ability of the market to offer affordable education the authors first show that private schools are three times more likely to emerge in villages with government girls secondary schools gss identification is obtained by using official school construction guidelines as an instrument for the presence of gss in contrast there is little or no relationship between the presence of a private school and girls primary or boys primary and secondary government schools in support of a supply channel the authors then show that for villages that received a gss there are over twice as many educated women and that private school teachers wages are 27 percent lower in these villages in an environment with poor female education and low mobility gss substantially increase the local supply of skilled women lowering wages locally and allowing the market to offer affordable education these findings highlight the prominent role of women as teachers in facilitating educational access and resonate with similar historical evidence from developed economies the students of today are the teachers of tomorrow

being a leader or a follower this paper deals with the analysis of conflicts in duopoly situations in particular with the distribution of roles in the von stackelberg framework which firm will be the leader which firm the follower under what circumstances will firms find a mutually advantageous distribution of roles will they fight for leadership or followship in von stackelberg s analysis of duopoly either firms do not choose their respective roles or they fight for leadership this situation is due to the particular strategy space namely the quantity to produce of an homogeneous good we extend here the strategy space to price quantity pairs we show that if costs are identical or similar then both firms will prefer the role of follower if there is a significant cost differential between the firms then the non cooperative equilibrium can only be of two types either the less efficient firm will act as the leader selling a limited quantity at a low price and the more efficient firm as the follower selling to the residual demand at a higher price or the more efficient firm acting as leader will drive the less efficient firm out of the market by adopting a limit pricing strategy but in so doing that firm makes less profits than if it acts as follower we suggest that it is not unreasonable to expect that firms in a duopoly framework will tend to coordinate on their mutually advantageous role distribution even if they compete in a non cooperative strategic way in terms of both prices and quantities

the expectation based loss averse newsvendor we modify the classic single period inventory management problem by assuming that the newsvendor is expectation based loss averse according to k szegi and rabin 2006 2007 we show that the expectation based loss averse newsvendor orders less than the profit maximizing quantity moreover the order placed by the expectation based loss averse newsvendor features plausible comparative statics of cost and price changes

assessing the welfare impacts of public spending an important objective of public spending is to raise household living standards particularly for the poor but how can final impacts on this objective best be assessed evaluating a policy s impact requires assessing how different things would have been in its absence but the counterfactual of no intervention is tricky to quantify the author surveys the methods most often used to assess the welfare effects of public spending limitations of current practices are studied and implications for future best practices are drawn the methods used to assess welfare impacts broadly fall into two groups benefit incidence studies and behavioral approaches benefit incidence studies ignore behavioral responses and second round effects using the provision cost as a proxy for benefits received behavioral approaches present quite different drawbacks in attempting to represent individual benefits correctly a number of recent studies usefully combine both approaches it is still uncertain whether behaviorally consistent methods actually point to fundamentally different policy recommendations what can be concluded is that we need to diversify and compare results from our evaluation methods and broaden our definition of well being to see how various facets of living standard are affected by public spending

the overconfident and optimistic price setting newsvendor abstract overconfidence and optimism are behavioral biases known to impact newsvendor ordering decisions we develop a model that accounts for both effects by applying a probability weighting function from prospect theory pt we apply the model to a price setting newsvendor problem with reference effects contrary to previous work claiming that increased optimism leads a newsvendor to adopt a high margin and low volume strategy we find that greater optimism typically results in lower margins and higher inventory aligning with the more intuitive interpretation of optimism in addition we find that overconfidence and regret have similar impacts on both inventory levels and pricing

human capital inequality and growth a local perspective abstract a recent body of work has demonstrated the crucial role played by local human capital externalities and local school funding in generating socio economic segregation persistent poverty and low aggregate income or productivity growth we present a simple model which captures the main insights from this literature and prove three general propositions first minor differences in education technologies preferences wealth or minor imperfections in capital markets can lead to a high degree of stratification second stratification makes inequality in education and income more persistent across generations the same is true for total wealth provided the rich succeed in capturing the rents created by their secession finally this polarization or urban areas can be very inefficient especially in the long run

the risk averse and prudent newsboy the effects of risk and risk aversion in the single period inventory newsboy problem are examined comparative static effects of changes in the various price and cost parameters are determined and related to the newsboy s risk aversion the addition of a random background wealth and of an increase in the riskiness of newspaper demand are also examined although many of the comparative effects generally are ambiguous some fairly simple restrictions on preferences and or risk increases are shown to lead to qualitatively deterministic results

barometric price leadership abstract barometric price leadership refers to situations in which a price leader acts as a barometer of prevailing market conditions for other firms in the industry in this paper a model of price setting with costly information acquisition is analyzed it is shown that the unique equilibrium outcome is for one firm to acquire information and become a price leader while the other firm does not purchase information and becomes a follower in contrast to most previous work leadership in this model is due to the informational setting not the price setting mechanism as with symmetric information the unique outcome is the symmetric bertrand equilibrium

quantity leadership and social inefficiency a game of simultaneous free entry and sequential output choices is analyzed firms enter simultaneously in stage 1 by paying a fixed cost and they choose output levels sequentially in subsequent stages at the subgame perfect equilibrium of the game the production level of a firm is decreasing with the order of the firm in the decision making the firm that is the last to choose output produces the same amount as a typical firm in the standard symmetric simultaneous moves cournot game moreover industry output and market price are identical in the sequential and the symmetric cournot games it follows that in the sequential game there are fewer active firms and higher total surplus than in the standard symmetric cournot game strategic asymmetry results in higher concentration and higher total surplus without an increase in price

conditional cash transfers and female schooling the impact of the female school stipend program on public school enrollments in punjab pakistan instead of mean tested conditional cash transfer cct programs some countries have implemented gender targeted ccts to explicitly address intra household disparities in human capital investments this study focuses on addressing the direct impact of a female school stipend program in punjab pakistan did the intervention increase female enrollment in public schools to address this question the authors draw on data from the provincial school censuses of 2003 and 2005 they estimate the net growth in female enrollments in grades 6 8 in stipend eligible schools impact evaluation analysis including difference and difference dd triple differencing ddd and regression discontinuity design rdd indicate a modest but statistically significant impact of the intervention the preferred estimator derived from a combination of ddd and rdd empirical strategies suggests that the average program impact between 2003 and 2005 was an increase of six female students per school in terms of absolute change and an increase of 9 percent in female enrollment in terms of relative change a triangulation effort is also undertaken using two rounds of a nationally representative household survey before and after the intervention even though the surveys are not representative at the subprovincial level the results corroborate evidence of the impact using school census data

community based development and poverty alleviation an evaluation of china s poor village investment program we conduct the first systematic evaluation of the world s largest community based development program china s flagship poverty alleviation program began in 2001 which finances public investments in designated poor villages based on participatory village planning we use matching methods and a panel household and village data set with national coverage to compare changes from 2001 to 2004 in designated poor villages that began plan investments and in designated poor villages that had yet to begin plan investments we find that the program significantly increased both government and village financed investments while the program did not increase the income or consumption of poorer households it did increase the income and consumption of richer households by 6 1 to 9 2 we also find suggestive evidence that governance matters in the distribution of program benefits relative gains were greater for richer households in villages with more educated leaders and higher quality village committees delivered greater benefits to both richer and poorer households

growth divergence due to spatial externalities abstract on using household level panel data to unpack a regional growth regression for rural china we find that aggregate divergence at the regional level is entirely due to external effects of community wealth at the household level

evaluating china s poverty alleviation program a regression discontinuity approach abstract this paper evaluates the impact of the 8 7 plan the second wave of china s poverty alleviation program on rural income growth at the county level over the program s disbursement period from 1994 to 2000 program participation was largely determined by whether a county s pre program income fell below a given poverty line hence a regression discontinuity approach is employed to estimate the causal effects of the program using a panel data set we find that the 8 7 plan resulted in an approximately 38 percent increase in rural income for counties that were treated between 1994 and 2000 our empirical results also suggest the important role of initial endowments in the path toward economic development

innis lecture equity and equality is horizontal equity he the most widely accepted principle of equity or does it stand in opposition to the advancement of human welfare this paper argues that the case for the he principle is not as straightforward as is usually thought and that it requires advanced notions of justice and well being the most likely ethical basis for he appears to combine a rawlsian maximin principle and a view of well being that allows for relative local comparison effects the paper also explores some of the dimensions of equality and well being along which the he principle can be applied and presents a number of examples showing how he considerations can provide an important input into policy analysis le principe d d equite horizontale he constitue t il le principe ethique le plus largement admis ou est il un frein a l avancement du bien etre cet article explique pourquoi les assises ethiques du principe d eh ne sont pas aussi claires qu il est parfois suggere et demontre que ce principe fait plutot appel a des notions avancees de justice et de bien etre les assises morales les plus susceptibles d appuyer le principe d eh semblent combiner un argument de type maximin rawlsien et une perspective du bien etre qui tient compte des effets locaux relatifs de comparaison le papier explore egalement certaines des dimensions de l egalite et du auxquelles le principe d eh peut etre applique et presente un certain nombre d exemples montrant en quoi de considerations de type eh peuvent influencer l analyse de politiques

how has microcredit supported agriculture evidence using panel data from bangladesh improving agricultural productivity has received a greater attention in recent years amid concerns about rising food insecurity population pressures and climate change many believe that better access to institutional credit spanning microcredit as well as commercial and agricultural banks can help rural households smooth risks and access inputs and other technology to modernize agriculture and improve farm nonfarm linkages we use recently augmented household panel data spanning over 20 years in bangladesh to examine the effects of rural credit expansion both microcredit and formal bank channels on outcomes for agricultural households we find that microcredit has benefited households with lower landownings raising agricultural income from activities such as livestock rearing that require less land as well as nonfarm income diversification for all households but with the strongest effect for landless or near landless households we do not find effects of microcredit on crop income but do however find that reported supply side credit constraints significantly lower crop income borrowing by both men and women has contributed to nonfarm income growth for marginal farmers but only men s borrowing has contributed to nonfarm income growth among higher landowning groups

second mover advantage and price leadership in bertrand duopoly we consider the issue of first versus second mover advantage in differentiated product bertrand duopoly with general demand and asymmetric linear costs we generalize existing results for all possible combinations where prices are either strategic substitutes and or complements dispensing with common extraneous and restrictive assumptions we show that a firm with a sufficiently large cost lead over its rival has a first mover advantage for the linear version of the model we invoke a natural endogenous timing scheme coupled with equilibrium selection according to risk dominance the analysis yields as the unique equilibrium outcome sequential play with the low cost firm as leader

stackelberg versus cournot equilibrium we reconsider stackelberg s classical critique of the cournot duopoly in the framework of endogenous timing for two player games for quantity duopoly we provide different sets of minimal conditions directly on the demand and cost functions yielding respectively the simultaneous and the two sequential modes of play while our findings essentially confirm the predominance of the former they also indicate that the latter is natural under some robust but restrictive conditions no extraneous assumptions such as concavity existence or uniqueness of equilibria are needed and the analysis makes crucial use of the basic results from the theory of supermodular games classification numbers b21 c72 d43 l13 c 1999 academic press

regional poverty targeting in china we evaluate the effectiveness of regional targeting in china s large scale poverty alleviation program begun in 1986 by analyzing a panel data set of all counties in china for the period 1981 1995 estimates of models of poor county designation and poverty fund allocation and newly defined targeting gap and targeting error measures show that political factors have affected targeting and that leakage has increased while coverage has improved only one of the three main programs is progressive growth model estimates find that poor county designation increased incomes per capita by 2 28 per year during 1985 1992 and 0 91 during 1992 1995 these results are relatively robust to redefining control groups using propensity score matching methods

growth inequality and poverty looking beyond averages the evidence is compelling that the poor in developing countries do typically share in the gains from rising aggregate affluence and in the losses from aggregate contraction but how much do poor people share in growth do they gain more in some settings than others do some gain while others lose does pro poor growth mean more or less aggregate growth recent theories and evidence suggest some answers but deeper microeconomic empirical work is needed on growth and distributed change only then will we have a firm basis for identifying the specific policies and programs needed to complement and possibly modify growth oriented policies

chinese rural poverty marginalized or dispersed imagine two models of rural poverty distribution one which might be called the ecological model pictures the poor as confined to poverty regions of great natural adversity separate and apart from normal regions in the normal areas on the other hand there might be growing inequality but there is little or no absolute poverty the second model the socioeconomic model sees poor rich and middle class physically interspersed or living in proximity to one another which of these models more closely approximates reality is an important question it affects the visibility of extremes of wealth and poverty which is a politically sensitive matter also characteristics of antipoverty policy will be very different according to whether it is necessary to identify and treat individual households and neighborhoods widely scattered among the nonpoor population or whether it is possible to target entire poor regions in china the ecological model is official

endogenous role in mixed markets a two production period model in this paper i investigate endogenous roles in a mixed duopoly where private and state owned public firms compete by allowing two production periods i find that many equilibria exist including the cournot type equilibrium and one stackelberg type equilibrium where the public firm becomes the follower however another stackelberg type equilibrium where the public firm becomes the leader does not exist if small inventory costs are introduced the unique equilibrium outcome becomes the stackelberg type where the public firm is the follower

entitled to work urban property rights and labor supply in peru this brief summarizes the results of a gender impact evaluation study entitled entitled to work urban property rights and labor supply in peru new legal rights were issued in 1996 project teams providing titling service through 2003 in peru the study observed that between 1996 and 2003 the peruvian government issued property titles to over 1 2 million urban households the largest titling program targeted at urban squatters in the developing world this paper examines the labor market effects of increases in tenure security resulting from the program pre program squatters in program neighborhoods were significantly more likely to report improved tenure security by 60 percent similarly program participants were 18 8 percentage points less likely to report a high likelihood of eviction or invasion and 18 8 percentage points more likely to report that their dwelling was currently very secure from eviction or invasion the likelihood of working inside the home significantly falls by 11 6 percentage points for the average squatter family with two program periods

endogenous price leadership we consider a linear price setting duopoly game with differentiated products and determine endogenously which of the players will lead and which one will follow while the follower role is most attractive for each firm we show that waiting is more risky for the low cost firm so that consequently risk dominance considerations as in harsanyi and selten a general theory of equilibrium selection in games mit press cambridge ma 1988 allow the conclusion that only the high cost firm will choose to wait hence the low cost firm will emerge as the endogenous price leader

evaluating the effects of optimally distributed public programs child health and family planning interventions this paper develops and tests an optimizing model determining the distribution of family planning and health subsidies across heterogeneous households and assesses the biases in cross area estimates of the health effects of such subsidies due to public resource optimization the model incorporates both health externalities and the endogenous response of the size of the recipient population to program subsidies longitudinal data describing child health and publicly provided family planning and health programs in 20 barrios in laguna province in the philippines are used to estimate the effects of such programs on child health and the relationships between the distribution of the programs and preprogram health levels the impact of a program on a particular childs health status is viewed as dependent upon the childs length of exposure to the program a basic feature of the model is the presence of health externalities which is shown to be sufficient along with plausible features of household behavior to make selective subsidization of fertility control either alone or in combination with health investment subsidies pareto efficient the model suggests that subsidization of fertility control is likely to be pareto efficient in the presence of health or human capital externalities when human capital and family size are gross substitutes and or when any per child human capital subsidies may substitute for direct subsidies to health investment and an equalizing distribution of the subsidies the highest family planning subsidies to the lowest health recipient households is efficient when both health and family planning subsidies are used fertility control subsidies minimize the subsidy burden for donors and are highest when total subsidy expenditures per child are greatest

cross sectional regressions and the empirics of economic growth abstract this paper provides a short survey of the recent empirical growth literature based on cross sectional analysis unlike some other analysts i argue that this literature has uncovered interesting findings that should direct theoretical research in the future

what difference do polarisation measures make an application to china in recent years there has been much discussion of the difference between inequality and polarisation the vast literature on inequality is held to miss out key features of distributional change which are better described as changes in polarisation axioms have been proposed which capture some of these differences and measures of polarisation as distinct from inequality have been suggested the theoretical distinctions proposed in this literature are indeed interesting but do the newly proposed measures of polarisation give different results in comparing societies over time we address these questions for china where dramatic increases in inequality and polarisation have been much discussed in the literature we find that contrary to theoretical expectation the new measures of polarisation do not generate very different results from the standard measures of inequality the paper ends by considering a different approach to polarisation which might better conform to the policy concerns expressed in t

geographical targeting for poverty alleviation an introduction to the special issue in the face of rising public deficits and shrinking public resources geographical targeting may be a viable way to allocate resources for poverty alleviation in developing countries efficiency can be increased and leakage to the non poor reduced substantially by targeting increasingly smaller areas this article and more generally the symposium on geographical targeting for poverty alleviation proposes several techniques for augmenting data to produce more detailed poverty maps it focuses on practical considerations in the design of geographically targeted poverty alleviation programs in particular it assesses the advantages and disadvantages of geographical targeting and describes how geographic information systems can be applied to improve poverty mapping

cost of delay and endogenous price leadership abstract we study the effects of discounting in a standard endogenous price leadership model we show that there will be occasional changes in the identity of the leader with any cost of delay or discounting however small by analyzing the incentives that induce a firm to take up the leader position we derive positive predictions about which firm will lead most price changes firms with shorter reaction times will be more likely to become the price leader as will firms with lower cost of delay if the firms reaction times are similar

a policy utility dislocation model based on prospect theory a case study of promoting policies with low carbon lifestyle abstract a low carbon lifestyle is an inevitable choice for mitigating climate change however in the actual situation where policy makers and policy target groups are separated from each other low carbon lifestyle changes are often manifested as individual strong government actions behind which social actions are seriously lagging based on this observation in this study a concept of policy utility dislocation was developed and a policy utility dislocation model was constructed based on prospect theory numerical simulation showed that policy utility dislocation can be reduced by increasing the proportion of residents environmental benefits government efforts and subsidies and reducing the cost of implementing a low carbon lifestyle for residents in particular when the environmental benefits of the government and residents accounted for 15 and 65 respectively or the subsidy coefficient was 2 the policy utility dislocation became zero in addition policy utility dislocation began to appear when the cost of implementing a low carbon lifestyle exceeded 3 this study enriches the connotation of policy utility and quantifies the policy utility dislocation and provides new ways to launch policies that promote low carbon lifestyles

reference dependence in multilocation newsvendor models a structural analysis we propose a behavioral theory to predict actual ordering behavior in multilocation inventory systems the theory rests on a well known stylized fact of human behavior people s preferences are reference dependent we incorporate reference dependence into the newsvendor framework by assuming that there are psychological costs of leftovers and stockouts we also hypothesize that the psychological aversion to leftovers is greater than the disutility for stockouts we then experimentally test the proposed theory in both the centralized and decentralized inventory structures using subjects motivated by substantial financial incentives consistent with the proposed theory actual orders exhibit the so called pull to center bias and the degree of bias is greater in the high profit margin than in the low profit margin condition these systematic biases are shown to eliminate the risk pooling benefit when the demands across store locations are strongly correlated because the proposed model nests the standard inventory and ex post inventory error minimization theories as special cases one can systematically evaluate the predictive power of each alternative using the generalized likelihood principle we structurally estimate all three theories using the experimental data and the estimation results strongly suggest that the proposed behavioral theory captures actual orders and profits better we also conduct two experiments to validate the behavioral model by manipulating the relative salience of the psychological costs of leftovers versus that of stockouts to alleviate the pull to center bias

alternative time patterns of decisions and dynamic strategic interactions this paper offers a simple approach to study steady state markov perfect equilibria arising in dynamic games when players are obliged to commit their actions for several periods it highlights the importance of spillovers and dynamic strategic interactions when assessing the various time patterns conceivable in such games the obtained results are then applied to various either micro or macroeconomic issues where time patterns of decisions matter

the impact of state aid on the survival and financial viability of aided firms we estimate the causal impact of restructuring aid granted by the european commission between 2003 and 2012 on the survival and financial viability of aided firms using a comprehensive dataset we find that restructuring aid increases a firm s average survival time by 8 to 15 years and decreases the hazard rate by 58 to 68 percent depending on the definition of firm survival further analysis finds strong support that in the longer run aid receiving firms have a significantly higher probability to improve their financial viability than the counterfactual group

are the poor less well insured evidence on vulnerability to income risk in rural china the authors test how well consumption is insured against income risk in a panel of sampled households in rural china they estimate the risk insurance models by generalized method of moments treating income and household size as endogenous insurance exists for all wealth groups although the hypothesis of perfect insurance is universally rejected those in the poorest wealth decile are the least well insured with 40 percent of an income shock being passed on to current consumption by contrast consumption by the richest third of households is protected from almost 90 percent of an income shock the extent of insurance in a given wealth stratum varies little between poor and nonpoor areas

geographic poverty traps a micro model of consumption growth in rural china how important are neighbourhood endowments of physical and human capital in explaining diverging fortunes over time for otherwise identical households in a developing rural economy to answer this question we develop an estimable micro model of consumption growth allowing for constraints on factor mobility and externalities whereby geographic capital can influence the productivity of a household s own capital our statistical test has considerable power in detecting geographic effects given that we control for latent heterogeneity in measured consumption growth rates at the micro level we find robust evidence of geographic poverty traps in farm household panel data from post reform rural china our results strengthen the equity and efficiency case for public investment in lagging poor areas in this setting copyright 2002 john wiley sons ltd

stocking and pricing decisions under endogenous demand and reference point effects abstract in this paper we study the newsvendor s pricing and stocking decisions under reference point effects the demand faced by the newsvendor is endogenous and the customers may also decide to procure the product from an outside option we characterize the firm s optimal pricing and stocking decisions our analysis reveals a threshold policy on the firm s ordering and pricing decisions while considering the impact of reference point effects we also find that as the level of optimism increases the firm s optimal ordering level decreases and optimal price increases we further study the impact of loss aversion on the firm s ordering and pricing decisions

decision bias in the newsvendor problem with a known demand distribution experimental evidence in the newsvendor problem a decision maker orders inventory before a one period selling season with stochastic demand if too much is ordered stock is left over at the end of the period whereas if too little is ordered sales are lost the expected profit maximizing order quantity is well known but little is known about how managers actually make these decisions we describe two experiments that investigate newsvendor decisions across different profit conditions results from these studies demonstrate that choices systematically deviate from those that maximize expected profit subjects order too few of high profit products and too many of low profit products these results are not consistent with risk aversion risk seeking preferences prospect theory preferences waste aversion stockout aversion or the consequences of underestimating opportunity costs two explanations are consistent with the data one subjects behave as if their utility function incorporates a preference to reduce ex post inventory error the absolute difference between the chosen quantity and realized demand two subjects suffer from the anchoring and insufficient adjustment bias feedback and training did not mitigate inventory order errors we suggest techniques to improve decision making

on endogenizing long run growth this assessment of recent theoretical work on endogenous growth identifies three different engines of long run growth i the asymptotic average product of capital is positive ii labor productivity increases as an external effect of capital accumulation iii there are feedback effects on the cost of accumulating knowledge or innovating a general model encompassing all three is considered and then used to review different proposed determinants of long run growth rates the contribution of endogenous growth theory has been to create a framework in which to explain why economic institutions and policies can have long run effects on growth rates

interprovincial disparities in china output and consumption 1952 1987 the flood of economic information from china in recent years has permitted reassessment of the chinese model of development and the extent to which china s own development experience has conformed to it the prevailing consensus of the 1970s concerning the substance of the model itself typically characterized in terms of the chinese leadership s objectives and priorities and its strategy for pursuing them has stood up quite well the same cannot be said about past appraisals of the extent to which china s economic reality has been reshaped to accord with the model s prescriptions one of the most widely remarked elements of the chinese model is the high priority assigned to regional objectives and more specifically to balance in the distribution of productive capacity and equity in the distribution of income and hence consumption during the maoist era i e prior to 1979 the central government pursued regional objectives through such measures as interregional transfers of investment resources effected via the planning system subsidization of health and education expenditures in poor regions and attempts to maintain a safety net of state relief effected largely via control of grain surpluses in short there is little doubt that prior to 1979 the chinese leadership placed an unusually high value on the spread of modern growth and the improvements in welfare associated with it and persistently acted to limit the emergence or widening of interregional disparities although china s post mao leaders have shown greater concern with efficiency and with the potential trade offs between efficiency and such goals as balance and equity their continuation of many redistributive policies indicates that they have not abandoned regional objectives but how successful has china been in achieving these objectives

the spatial contribution to income inequality in rural china an income function analysis is conducted of the 2 400 rural counties of china using cross section data income inequality among counties is considerable and accounts for the major part of inequality among rural households in china county income per capita is well explained by province terrain agricultural type location and the relative importance of non agriculture non agricultural activity in turn is strongly assisted by agricultural success an analysis of time series data suggests that a process of cumulative causation operated in the decade after the rural reforms of 1978 increasing spatial inequality in rural investment industrialization and income fiscal redistribution from richer to poorer areas weakened the process but failed to stem it copyright 1993 by oxford university press

has rural infrastructure rehabilitation in georgia helped the poor this article proposes a research strategy to deal with the scarcity of data on beneficiaries for conducting impact assessments of community level projects community level panel data from a regular household survey augmented with a special community module are used to measure the impact of projects propensity score matched difference in difference comparisons are used to control for time invariant unobservable factors this methodology takes into consideration the purposeful placement of projects and their interactions at the community level this empirical approach is applied to infrastructure rehabilitation projects for schools roads and water supply systems in rural georgia between 1998 and 2001 the analysis produces plausible results regarding the size of welfare gains from a particular project at the village level and allows for differentiation of benefits between the poor and the non poor the findings of this study can contribute to evaluations of the impact of infrastructure interventions on poverty by bringing new empirical evidence to bear on the welfare and equity implications

obtaining strategic advantage from being imitated when can encouraging clones pay an important business strategy research theme concerns finding ways to minimize competition faced by the firm this paper however focuses on a different set of situations the model developed suggests that an innovator s best strategy may be to encourage clones of its product when a network externality is present key factors to consider in assessing whether encouraging cloning is the innovator s best strategy are 1 the benefit to be derived in terms of added user base contributed by the clone sales traded off against 2 the unit sales that will be lost to the clones these factors in turn depend upon the strength of the network effect and the degree to which the innovator s product quality is perceived by consumers to be superior to the clone s the model further suggests that both the innovator and clone earn their highest payoffs when the clone takes the lead in price setting i e when the clone establishes its own price by considering for each price it might set how the innovator will react to that price and the innovator as price follower responds to the price the clone chooses the paper demonstrates that the clone leader innovator follower situation represents the unique nash equilibrium in price setting strategies a central implication is that when operating in a network externality environment instead of a problem to be avoided clones may be valuable assets to an innovating firm building up the user base for the innovator s technology by bringing lower valuing consumers into the market which in turn makes the innovator s product more attractive to high and medium valuing purchasers thus when the above described conditions hold being cloned can be more profitable for an innovating firm than dominating the market alone

are there lasting impacts of aid to poor areas abstract the paper re visits the site of a large world bank financed rural development program in china 10 years after it began and four years after disbursements ended the program emphasized community participation in multi sectoral interventions including farming animal husbandry infrastructure and social services data were collected on 2000 households in project and non project areas spanning 10 years a double difference estimator of the program s impact on top of pre existing governmental programs reveals sizeable short term income gains that were mostly saved only small and statistically insignificant gains to mean consumption emerged in the longer term though in rough accord with the average gain to permanent income the use of community based beneficiary selection greatly reduced the overall impact given that the educated poor were under covered the main results are robust to corrections for various sources of selection bias including village targeting and interference due to spillover effects generated by the response of local governments to the external aid

hidden impact household saving in response to a poor area development project abstract the possibility that poor households may prefer to save the income gains from a development project raises concerns about how well standard evaluation methods using data collected over relatively short periods can capture the true welfare impacts by the widely used difference in difference method the southwest china poverty reduction project had little current impact on the proportion of people in beneficiary villages consuming less than us 1 day despite a public outlay of us 400 million however the program had much larger impacts on incomes than consumptions uncertainty about the project s future impact probably made it hard for participants to infer the gain in permanent income so they saved a high proportion of the current income gains

can we trust shoestring evaluations many more impact evaluations could be done and at lower unit cost if evaluators could avoid the need for baseline data using objective socio economic surveys and rely instead on retrospective subjective questions on how outcomes have changed asked post intervention but would the results be reliable this paper tests a rapid appraisal shoestring method using subjective recall for welfare changes the recall data were collected at the end of a full scale evaluation of a large world bank supported poor area development program in china qualitative recalls on how living standards have changed are found to provide only weak and biased signals of the changes in consumption as measured from contemporaneous surveys importantly the shoestring method was unable to correct for the selective placement of the program favoring poor villages the results of this case study are not encouraging for future applications of the shoestring method although similar tests are needed in other settings

equity and policy effectiveness with imperfect targeting abstract we propose a general approach that jointly integrates horizontal and vertical equity criteria in the assessment of poverty alleviation programs with the strength of each criterion being captured through its own inequity aversion parameter this contrasts with the assessment of poverty alleviation programs done with simple under coverage and leakage ratios or with other methods that do not take into account the heterogeneity of the poor and that do not address directly the social benefits of achieving normative criteria our methodology is illustrated using tunisian data and two alternative poverty alleviation policies we find inter alia that the social ranking of commodity and socio demographic targeting in tunisia depends on the policymaker s comparative preference for vertical and horizontal equity

firm scale and the endogenous timing of entry a choice between commitment and flexibility abstract this paper presents a model of stochastic oligopoly with demand uncertainty where firms endogenously choose entry timing we examine two extreme types of market structure and show that the equilibrium correspondence that connects them is continous with two identically sized firms there are symmetric cournot type equilibria where the probability of early entry declines with greater uncertainty and for low uncertainty two asymmetric equilibria with one large firm with a continuum of nonatomic firms there is a unique stackelberg equilibrium we conclude that the behavior of a dominant firm with a finite fringe can be approximated by stackelberg equilibrium journal of economic literatureclassification numbers d21 l11

collusive price leadership with capacity constraints abstract in this paper collusive price leadership in homogeneous good capacity constrained repeated price competition is examined in the stage game firms choose their timing of price setting although setting a price early is disadvantageous per se a large firm has an incentive to move early in order to demonstrate its commitment not to deviate if the discount factor is not too large this behavior raises the collusive price compared to that arising in collusion with simultaneous moves as a result all firms obtain strictly higher profits