some empirical evidence on the effects of shocks to monetary policy on exchange rates this paper investigates the effects of shocks to u s monetary policy on exchange rates we consider three measures of these shocks orthogonalized shocks to the federal funds rate orthogonalized shocks to the ratio of nonborrowed to total reserves and changes in the romer and romer index of monetary policy in sharp contrast to the literature we find substantial evidence of a link between monetary policy and exchange rates specifically according to our results a contractionary shock to u s monetary policy leads to i persistent significant appreciations in u s nominal and real exchange rates and ii significant persistent deviations from uncovered interest rate parity in favor of u s interest rates

the dynamics of real estate prices institute of university of i business and v california at i economic research berkeley fisher center for real estate and urban economics p working paper series working paper no 88 151 the dynamics of real estate prices by these papers are preliminary in nature their purpose is to i e z i d 2f iz e ey bradford case are nottobccited ortluotedin john mq quigley any publication without the ex press permission of the author walter a haas school of business

determinants of house price a decision tree approach the hedonic based regression approach has been utilised extensively to investigate th relationship between house prices and housing characteristics however this approach is subject t criticisms arising from potential problems relating to fundamental model assumptions an estimation such as the identification of supply and demand market disequilibrium the selectio of independent variables the choice of functional form of hedonic equation and marke segmentation this study introduces and utilises an alternative approach the decision tre approach which is an important statistical pattern recognition tool using the singapore resal public housing market as a case study the article demonstrates the usefulness of this techniqu in examining the relationship between house prices and housing characteristics identifying th significant determinants of housing prices and predicting housing prices the built tree show that homebuyers are more concerned about the basic housing characteristics of two and three r

monetary policy and investment dynamics evidence from disaggregate data we use disaggregated data on the components of private fixed investment pfi to estimate industry level responses of real investment and capital prices to unanticipated monetary policy the response functions derive from a restricted large scale var estimated over 1959 2007 our results point to significant cross sector heterogeneity in the behavior of pfi prices and quantities for assets belonging to the equipment category of fixed investment we find that quantities rather than prices absorb most of the fallout from a policy shock by contrast the price effects tend to be higher and the output effects lower for nonresidential structures

evidence on the cross country transmission of monetary shocks the international transmission of monetary shocks between the us and canada is explored focusing on real variables such as consumption investment employment and the bilateral trade balance along with measures of us and canadian money the empirical analysis examines the impact of a monetary shock in one country on real activity in both countries the long run analysis provides evidence of cointegration among the variables and suggests that money plays an important role in the equilibrium relationships between the two countries variance decompositions and impulse response functions reveal interesting avenues of real transmission in the short run the short run analysis provides strong evidence that us monetary shocks affect real activity in both the usa and canada the analysis also indicates that canadian monetary disturbances affect canadian and us real activity and that many of these effects are similar in magnitude to the effects of us monetary shocks the importance of the nominal exchange rate

exploring spatial dynamics with land price indexes the purpose of this study is to explore the within region spatial dynamics of appreciation and depreciation rates using three different representations of geographical space mean value indexing methods are used to construct global land price indexes sub market land price indexes and local land price indexes using transaction price data for vacant residential land within the city of hamilton ontario between 1995 and 2003 the results are validated against statistics canada s series of new housing price indexes followed by a comparison of the relative performance of the three geographical representations of land price indexes the results indicate that the mean value indexing methods are robust although subject to outliers and sample selection bias and clearly illustrate the spatial dynamics of annual appreciation and depreciation rates across the study area the results also underscore the need for regular surveillance of the spatial dynamics of urban land markets

the identification of monetary policy disturbances explaining the liquidity puzzle abstract this paper examines recent work on the identification of monetary policy disturbances its main finding is that the empirical anomalies found in the literature reflect a failure to properly address the federal reserve s policy of accommodating reserve demand shocks a new method of identifying monetary policy using nonborrowed reserves is proposed using this specification policy has a strong persistent liquidity effect regardless of subsample policy granger causes output even in the presence of interest rates explaining approximately 49 of the variance in output at a two year horizon and the residual explanatory power of interest rates for output is negligible

a constant quality price index for resale public housing flats in singapore largely because of the significant societal and economic aspects of public housing in singapore the current resale price index is published regularly by the housing and development board hdb based on average transaction prices this hdb index does not control for a shift in the mix of public housing resale flats transacted this paper looks into the usefulness of the current hdb resale price index that is reflective of pure price appreciation across time adopting the varying parameter technique a constant quality hdb resale price index is constructed instead for the period between january 1997 and june 2000 the usefulness of a constant quality resale price index is evaluated using three assessment criteria first through a series of comparative studies between a constant quality hdb resale price index and other resale price indices it is found that the constant quality resale price index provides a better indication of pure price appreciation secondly the parameters of price determinants are fo

collective decisions and competitive markets in a general equilibrium model we allow for households with several typically heterogeneous members households that make efficient collective consumption decisions where different households may use different collective decision mechanisms yet households that operate within a competitive market environment the interaction of two allocation mechanisms collective decisions and competitive markets is investigated with a focus on the efficiency properties and decentralization possibilities of the dual allocation mechanism

economic determinants of the nominal treasury yield curve abstract macroeconomic shocks account for most of the variability of nominal treasury yields inducing parallel shifts in the level of the yield curve we develop a new approach to identifying macroeconomic shocks that exploits model based empirical shock measures technology shocks shift yields through their effect on expected inflation and the term premium shocks to preferences for current consumption affect yields through their impact on real rates and expected inflation for both shocks the systematic reaction of monetary policy is an important transmission pathway we find little evidence that fiscal policy shocks are an important source of interest rate variability

measuring environmental effects on property values without hedonic regressions abstract the effect of environmental nuisances on property values has been frequently studied using hedonic regressions yet that method has extensive data and estimation requirements the technique developed in this paper uses repeat sales on houses to substantially reduce these requirements the technique adjusts for depreciation between sales and allows for nonzero error covariance terms when a house has been sold more than twice the effect of highway noise on property values is studied using this method and the results are statistically equivalent to the results of an extensive hedonic study for the same area

interpreting the macroeconomic time series facts the effects of monetary policy existing theory and evidence on the effects of monetary policy are reviewed substantial room for disagreement among economists remains new evidence based on multivariate time series studies of several countries is presented while certain patterns in the data consistent with effective monetary policy are strikingly similar across countries others particularly the tendency of interest rate increases to predict high inflation are harder to reconcile with effective monetary policy

measuring the importance of location in house price appreciation abstract this paper examines the variation in the rates of price appreciation within an individual metropolitan market a methodology is developed to examine the locational variation in house price changes in dade county miami florida from 1971 to 1992 house price appreciation appears to be somewhat spatially related that is it varies by municipality with distance from the cbd with local changes in population and housing units and by ethnic mix however these relationships have minimal explanatory power controlling for the census tract group location of each home explains only around 12 of the residual variation in the appreciation of individual homes that is not explained by metropolitan wide changes in house prices the effect of tract group location appears to be dominated by the idiosyncratic influences of individual homes and their immediate environments

time on market and price trade offs in high rise housing sub markets this paper provides the first analytical study of the relationship between list price and time on market tom for high rise public housing flats stratified by sub markets in terms of geographical region and property type in addition the effects of macroeconomic variables pertinent to the price discovery process for property markets are analysed by using data from single listings with one major agency firm to control for brokerage effects the results obtained in this study are robust to incentive factors arising from firm size number of listings commission structure and incentive measures the key results are that floor level affects the relationship between pricing and tom and variations in determinants of tom exist across sub markets moreover tom is influenced by price movements in both the public and private housing markets as well as by individual agent effort

public housing in singapore interpreting quality in the 1990s while writings exist on various aspects of public housing in singapore recent developments in the 1990s have not yet been given any serious academic attention our intention in this paper is to fo

household labor supply what kind of data can tell us how many decision makers there are although in empirical work the neoclassical assumption of the household as a homogeneous decision making unit is still predominant there appears to be an increasing interest in models of household labor supply based on game theoretic notions examples are ashworth and ulph 1981 bjorn and vuong 1984 1985 brown and chuang 1981 brown and manser 1978 horney and mcelroy 1988 mcelroy and horney 1981 mcelroy 1990 schultz 1990 thomas 1990 quite a few of these papers also attempt to test the assumption of one decision maker against the more general bargaining framework typically these take the form of tests for certain restrictions on the data that should hold if the neoclassical model were valid and which need not hold in the game theoretic framework chiappori 1988b argues that a truly valid test of a bargaining model should leave from the notion that observed data are the result from some cooperative game being played by the household members without specifying the solution concept he then goes on to argue that the restrictions placed on the data by such an assumption are quite mild indeed in a separate paper chiappori 1988a derives restrictions on observed labor supply functions based on this notion however his main result is based on rather special assumptions in this note we put the various results in perspective our basic obser

gender and say a model of household behaviour with endogenously determined balance of power the evidence that the same total income can lead a household to choose different consumption vectors depending on who brings in how much of the income has led to an effort to replace the standard unitary model of the household with the collective model which recognizes that the husband and the wife may have different preferences and depending on the balance of power between them the household may choose differently one weakness of this new literature is that it fails to recognize that the household s choice could in turn influence the balance of power once this two way relation between choice and power is recognized we are forced to confront some new questions concerning how to model the household this paper tries to answer these by defining a household equilibrium examining its game theoretic properties and drawing out its testable implications it is shown for instance that once we allow for dynamic interaction a household can exhibit inefficient behavior and that for a certain class of parameters children will be less likely to work in a household where power is evenly balanced than one in which all power is concentrated in the hands of either the father or the mother the paper also draws out the implications for female labor supply

sources of regime switching in short term interest rates for canada the purpose of this study is to identify sources of regime switching in short term interest rates for canada the choice of information variables is based on three well known hypotheses about interest rates the expectations hypothesis the fisher relationship and the condition for uncovered interest parity the empirical framework consists of an autoregressive distributive lag adl model in error correction form with information spreads and a markov regime switching estimation methodology the models choose interest rate regimes that are similar in many respects to those found for the usa the different regimes in canada are driven by movements in the monetary policy rate the us short term rate and the long term yield the monetary policy rate is found to trigger very large changes in the short term rate responding one for one in the high variance regime and slightly less in the more normal interest rate regime both the us short rate and long term yield are also found to trigger relatively large

household decisions and equilibrium efficiency a general equilibrium model is introduced where a household may consist of several members each with individual preferences and or resources when households obey collective rationality certain intrahousehold externalities can be fully internalized by the respective households so that competitive exchange among households is efficient as a rule however such intrahousehold externalities are not fully internalized by individual household members acting in their personal interest so that competitive exchange among such individuals is only efficient in exceptional cases

dynamic effects of credit shocks in a data rich environment we examine the dynamic effects of credit shocks using a large dataset of u s economic and financial indicators in a structural factor model an identified credit shock resulting in an unanticipate

buyer exuberance and price premium it has been demonstrated that the real estate market disciplines irrational price premiums however the persistence of price premiums begs the question of what causes price premiums in the first place this paper seeks to examine two explanations for price premiums the conventional information asymmetry explanation and the buyer exuberance explanation as motivated by behavioural studies the results show that information asymmetry explains price premiums and this finding is robust across two sub hypotheses tested namely information differences arising from market familiarity and product characteristics in addition we find that price premiums are also caused by buyer exuberance specifically exuberance arising from representativeness purchasing power and anchoring effects

commodity price volatility with endogenous natural resources abstract natural resource reserves are exogenous in models of small commodity exporters changes in the stock of reserves play no role in the macroeconomy including in business cycle volatility trade dynamics or exchange rate volatility we consider richer supply dynamics and model exploration and depletion we show that an endogenous supply of reserves is important for capturing the stylised facts associated with commodity price shocks including a commodity currency the crowding out of non commodity activity dutch disease and a volatile business cycle we also consider how exploration and depletion affect the ranking of optimal monetary and taxation policies when natural resource reserves are held fixed monetary policy is an efficient tool for stabilising the effects of commodity price shocks however when exploration and depletion are accounted for using interest rates to stabilise the effects of commodity price changes becomes inefficient using taxes on the resource sector specifically an ad valorem royalty remains efficient

age time vintage and price indexes measuring the depreciation pattern of houses age time and vintage are key determinants of house prices yet they cannot be included together linearly or as dichotomous variables in hedonic regressions as construction time age of house sale time we introduce a method where the estimates of the age time and vintage effects on prices are obtained in a flexible manner without requiring us to specify a pre determined functional form for either of these variables applying our method to dutch data we find that the estimated depreciation pattern over the life of houses does not follow the functional forms typically specified for the age of houses in hedonic regressions

models and their uses it is argued that economists ought to recognize that modeling in different styles will be appropriate for different purposes or different stages in the development of an area of economics as an example the paper displays simulations of a stochastic general equilibrium model which shed light on the interpretation of widely discussed small macroeconomic vector autoregressive models connecting monetary variables to output and prices this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

curtailing the black box german banking groups in the transmission of monetary policy abstract the paper examines the role of portfolio decisions of german banking groups in the transmission of monetary policy a small econometric model is augmented with segregated bank balance sheet variables in order to study potentially different effects of tight money on these variables the results provide evidence for banks playing an active role in the transmission process and are beneficial for two fields of research the findings indicate sectoral differences of monetary policy in line with transmission models based on informational frictions in addition the results lend econometric support to the existence of close bank customer ties for certain banking groups in germany whereas large banks adjust their credit position markedly following a monetary shock the smaller savings banks and credit cooperatives seem to shield their customers from the brunt of a policy tightening

a decomposition of the predictive content of the term structure for output growth in canada the purpose of this study is to identify the underlying economic disturbances that drive the predictive content of the term structure for future output growth and those that may distort its information content the study uses a structural vector autoregressive var model of a small and open economy for canada that takes into account its relationship with financial markets in the usa and that canada is a relatively large exporter of commodities the model is used to decompose the sources of the variation of the slope of the yield curve and the correlation between the term spread and output growth monetary policy disturbances in both canada and the usa as well as short term interest rates are found to trigger excessive volatility in short term rates and the term spread that do not contribute to the predictive content of the term spread for future output growth at horizons relevant for monetary policy analysis however innovations in output growth inflation and other macroeconomic variables do not dist

do exchange rate shocks have asymmetric effects on reserve accumulation evidence from emerging markets it is generally argued that central banks in emerging market countries motivated by a desire to defend export competitiveness tend to intervene in foreign exchange markets to limit currency appreciations rather than depreciations using panel data from 13 emerging market countries for the period 1998 m1 to 2016 m12 we find that exchange rate shocks play an important role in determining the accumulation of international reserves moreover we find evidence that central banks in emerging markets tend to follow a leaning against the depreciation wind policy rather than the appreciation wind i e we provide evidence of a fear of depreciation

identifying monetary policy in a small open economy under flexible exchange rates abstract previous empirical study on the effects of monetary policy shocks in small open economies has generated puzzling dynamic responses in various macroeconomic variables this paper argues that these puzzles derive from an identification of monetary policy that is inappropriate for such economies to remedy this it is proposed that a structural model be estimated to explicitly account for the features of the small open economy such a model is applied to canada with tightly estimated results overall the dynamic responses to the identified monetary policy shock are consistent with standard theory and highlight the exchange rate as a transmission mechanism

the changing relation between the canadian and u s yield curves abstract the term structures of canada and of the united states two countries with historically interdependent economic ties have been closely linked we investigate the link between canadian and u s yield curves and show previously strong correlations between yield curve components dissipate after canadian monetary policy reforms in the early 1990s we attribute the separated ties to the adoption of explicit inflation targets in 1991 and the maintenance of credibility in price stability as a central policy goal by the bank of canada the effect is particularly evident in the diminished cross country correlations of the short term bond yields additionally there exists strong evidence of cointegration before the reforms evidence which weakens after the policy change date lastly the results on the term structure are shown using a vector autoregression with an endogenously determined break date for canadian and u s estimates of the three factor nelson and siegel 1987 yield curve model

a fresh look at the rotten kid theorem and other household mysteries gary becker s rotten kid theorem asserts that if all family members receive gifts of money income from a benevolent household member then even if the household head does not precommit to an incentive plan for family members it will be in the interest of selfish family members to maximize total family income i show by examples that the rotten kid theorem is not true without assuming transferable utility i find a simple condition on utility functions that is necessary and sufficient for there to be the kind of transferable utility needed for a rotten kid theorem while restrictive these conditions still allow one to apply the strong conclusions of the rotten kid theorem in an interesting class of examples

indeterminacy change points and the price puzzle in an estimated dsge model abstract we extend lubik and schorfheide s 2004 testing for indeterminacy an application to u s monetary policy american economic review 94 190 217 likelihood based estimation of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium dsge models under indeterminacy to encompass a sample period the includes both determinacy and indeterminacy by implementing a change point methodology chib s 1998 estimation and comparison of multiple change point models journal of econometrics 86 221 241 by letting the data provide estimates of the dates of the determinacy regimes and allowing the estimates of structural parameters to be the same across regimes we obtain more precise estimates of the differences in characteristics such as the impulse responses across the regimes the most striking finding about the indeterminacy regime which is estimated to coincide with the great inflation of the 1970s is that it exhibits the price puzzle in that the inflation rate rises immediately and in a sustained manner following a positive interest rate shock thus the price puzzle might have been a genuine phenomenon under indeterminacy rather than a false finding to be excised through specification search and parameter restrictions

exchange rate stabilization in the erm identifying european monetary policy reactions abstract we develop the structural var models for european countries france denmark and germany during the erm period to examine the monetary policy reactions especially the within erm exchange rate stabilization in addition to analyzing the impulse responses and variance decomposition we present the full monetary reaction function in an interpretable manner without introducing additional assumptions the results suggest some asymmetry in exchange rate stabilization non german exchange rate stabilization is stronger than german exchange rate stabilization but do not support the hypothesis that german monetary policy was independent of the erm

an alternative explanation of the price puzzle abstract this paper proposes an explanation for the frequent appearance of a price puzzle in vars designed for monetary policy analysis it assumes that the data are generated by a model in which output and output gap are not equivalent while an econometrician follows the common practice of including only output in the var the omission of the output gap is shown to spuriously produce a price puzzle and several other incorrect conclusions in a class of commonly used models this can happen even if the model admits a triangular identification and if the forecasts produced by the misspecified var are optimal when the model is tested on us data all predictions are supported a commodity price index is not needed to solve the puzzle

determinants of the long term yield in canada an open economy var approach this study analyses the economic determinants of short and long term interest rates in canada using a structural vector autoregressive var model the var takes into consideration that canadian financial markets are small and open relative to those in the usa and that canada is a relatively large exporter of commodities in part the empirical results for canada are similar to those for the usa aggregate demand shocks have relatively large and persistent effects on long term yields while aggregate supply shocks do not have significant effects however monetary policy shocks in canada are found to have larger and more persistent effects on long term yields than those found for the usa the most striking result is that movements in us monetary policy have relatively large significant and persistent effects on canadian long term bond yields furthermore us monetary policy disturbances can account for the overall trend in long term yields in canada

intermediate monetary targets and macroeconomic fluctuations it is investigated whether the choice of intermediate target has altered macroeconomic fluctuations and whether the observed changes are consistent with predictions from economic theory since implications from the theoretical literature focus on the effects of structural disturbances an empirical analysis must identify these effects the structural vector autoregressive var technique estimates structural disturbances using restrictions from standard macroeconomic theory based on descriptions of actual targeting procedures by insiders to federal reserve policy decisions the intermediate target for the united states is identified as the interest rate from 1951 to 1969 and money from 1970 to 1986 var models are estimated over each subsample to assess whether the estimated structural disturbances cause endogenous variables to behave as economic theory predicts tests are also performed to assess whether or not the targeting rule affects the variance of endogenous variables attributable to structural sh

has monetary policy become more effective we investigate the implications of changes in the structure of the u s economy for monetary policy effectiveness estimating a vector autoregression over the pre and post 1980 periods we provide evidence of a reduced effect of monetary policy shocks in the latter period we estimate a structural model that replicates well the economy s response in both periods and perform counterfactual experiments to determine the source of the change in the monetary transmission mechanism and in the economy s volatility we find that by responding more strongly to inflation expectations monetary policy has stabilized the economy more effectively in the post 1980 period

monetary policy housing rents and inflation dynamics in this paper we study the effect of monetary policy shocks on housing rents our main finding is that in contrast to house prices housing rents increase in response to contractionary monetary policy shocks we also find that after a contractionary monetary policy shock rental vacancies and the homeownership rate decline this combination of results suggests that monetary policy may affect housing tenure decisions own versus rent in addition we show that with the exception of the shelter component all other main components of the consumer price index cpi either decline in response to a contractionary monetary policy shock or are not responsive these findings motivated us to study the statistical properties of alternative measures of inflation that exclude the shelter component we find that measures of inflation that exclude shelter have most of the statistical properties of the widely used measures of inflation such as the cpi and the price index for personal consumption expenditures but have higher standard deviations and react more to monetary policy shocks finally we show that the response of housing rents accounts for a large proportion of the price puzzle found in the literature

monetary policy shocks and foreign investment income evidence from a large bayesian var abstract this paper assesses the transmission of monetary policy in a large bayesian vector autoregression based on the approach proposed by banbura et al 2010 the paper analyzes the impact of monetary policy shocks in the united states and canada not only on a range of domestic aggregates trade flows and exchange rates but also foreign investment income the analysis provides three main results first a surprise monetary policy contraction has a statistically important impact on both gross and net foreign investment income flows in both countries against the background of growing foreign wealth and investment income this result provides preliminary evidence that foreign balance sheet channels might play an increasingly significant role for monetary transmission second the impact of monetary policy on foreign investment income flows differs considerably across asset categories and over time suggesting that the investment instruments and the currency denomination of a country s foreign assets and liabilities are potentially relevant for the way in which monetary policy affects the domestic economy finally the results support existing evidence on the effectiveness of large vector autoregressions and the bayesian shrinkage approach in eliminating price and exchange rate puzzles

the empirical content of nash bargained household behavior in households whose allocation decisions can be represented as nash bargained household decisions extrahousehold environmental parameters eeps serve as pure shifters of the threat points the comparative statics of changes in demands due to changes in these eeps are given these are incorporated into a comprehensive statement of the empirical content of nash bargained household behavior including a nash generalization of barten s 1966 fundamental matrix equation of the theory of consumer demand estimation and data requirements are discussed along with nested testing of the following structure the neoclassical model is nested in the nash bargained model which in turn is nested in an unrestricted model of household demands emphasized throughout is the enriched menu of explanatory variables for demand analysis provided by the nash model as well as the model s ability to jointly analyze i household formation and ii intrahousehold allocation decisions

groups collective decisions and markets abstract we consider a general equilibrium model where multi member households make efficient collective consumption decisions and operate in a competitive market environment individuals have the option to leave the household and make it on their own or join another household we study the effect of these outside options on household formation household stability and equilibrium existence

monetary shocks in the g 6 countries is there a puzzle les auteurs cherchent a clarifier la dynamique du mecanisme de transmission de la politique monetaire l identification des chocs de politique monetaire est au coeur de ce genre d analyse divers chercheurs ont reussi recemment a isoler de tels chocs en imposant des restrictions de suridentification a des modeles vectoriels autoregressifs var

price discovery between private and public housing markets public and private housing markets are usually differentiated in terms of price regulations and policies but they are not necessarily segmented any integration as opposed to segmentation between private and public markets implies that the prices of private housing are interrelated with the prices of public housing determined in the open market if so information revealed in one market will be pertinent for making inferences on prices in the other market this paper addresses the price discovery or relation between public and private housing in view of singapore s substantial public housing programme that has an actively traded secondary market implications for the direction of price causality and upward mobility for households between housing price strata are examined

measuring changes in local house prices an empirical investigation of alternative methodologies abstract this paper investigates whether reliable house price indices can be constructed using a limited set of descriptive variables on a large number of observations four primary index methods are compared 1 median sale price 2 restricted hedonic 3 repeat sales and 4 the assessed value technique the paper examines the precision and accuracy of each of the alternative indices

the effect of monetary policy shocks on macroeconomic variables evidence from the eurozone this paper investigates how european central bank ecb monetary policy shocks impact industrial production output and inflation prices i gather a novel dataset of macroeconomic forecasts and using a narrative approach i construct a new measure of monetary policy shocks industrial production responds to an unpredictable positive monetary policy shock of 100 basis points with a decline of over 0 5 on the contrary inflation responds weakly with a very modest decrease of 0 05

income and outcomes a structural model of intrahousehold allocation there is evidence from several sources that one cannot treat many person households as a single decision maker if this is the case then factors such as the relative incomes of the household members may affect the final allocation decisions made by the household we develop a method of identifying how incomes affect outcomes given conventional family expenditure data the basic assumption we make is that household decision processes lead to efficient outcomes we apply our method to a sample of canadian couples with no children we find that the final allocations of expenditures on each partner depend significantly on their relative incomes and ages and on the level of lifetime wealth