examining the link between energy consumption carbon dioxide emission and economic growth in latin america and the caribbean abstract this study aims at exploring the bi directional long run relationship between energy consumption carbon dioxide emission and economic growth in the latin american and caribbean countries the canonical cointegrating regression ccr is used to achieve the goal of this study taking the period of 1980 2008 the study arrived at different results while 60 of the countries have a positive bi directional long run relationship between energy consumption carbon dioxide emission and economic growth the others have mixed results the results of the study motivated the researcher to recommend that these countries should increase their energy efficiency increase the share of green energy from their total energy use and increase energy conservation in order to reduce unnecessary waste of energy

the peter principle a theory of decline some have observed that individuals perform worse after being promoted the peter principle which states that people are promoted to their level of incompetence suggests that something is fundamentally misaligned in the promotion process this view is unnecessary and inconsistent with the data below it is argued that ability appears lower after promotion purely as a statistical matter being promoted is evidence that a standard has been met regression to the mean implies that future ability will be lower on average firms optimally account for the regression bias in making promotion decisions but the effect is never eliminated rather than evidence of a mistake the peter principle is a necessary consequence of any promotion rule furthermore firms that take it into account appropriately adopt an optimal strategy usually firms inflate the promotion criterion to offset the peter principle effect and the more important the transitory component is relative to total variation in ability the larger

on electricity consumption and economic growth in china abstract the invention and application of the electric power technology triggered the second industrial revolution in human history which marked the human society entered the age of electricity electricity provides the sustainable power for economic and social development with the rapid development of economy the electricity consumption is also increasing the increase of electricity consumption has further promoted the progress of the industrial economy in order to achieve the goal of improving the level of economic development while reducing energy consumption it is necessary to reveal the relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth this study is an extensive overview of the literature surrounding this topic in this paper we focus on the relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in china we first analyze the general situation of china s electricity consumption and economic development then we explore the relationship between china s electricity consumption and economic growth from three dimensions i e the time dimension the regional dimension and the industrial dimension finally we study the key issues in the research of the relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth including variable selection model construction and results discussion this work suggests that the nature of the nexus in china should and can be explored from a wider perspective by developing a suitable integrated methodological framework

energy consumption and economic growth revisited does the size of unrecorded economy matter abstract we analyze the long run relationship between energy consumption and real gross domestic product gdp in turkey taking into account the size of unrecorded economy since in developing countries mainly due to the unrecorded economic activities the official gdp is not measured correctly the investigation of the linkage between energy consumption and official gdp may not give reliable results in this study empirical results for the case of turkey over the period 1970 2005 suggest that there is a long run equilibrium relationship between the officially calculated gdp and energy consumption besides using the error correction modeling technique we find out that unidirectional causality runs from official gdp to energy in both short and long runs however when we take into account unrecorded economy we detect neither cointegration nor causality between energy consumption and true gdp these empirical findings imply that first energy conservation policies can be implemented in order to reduce greenhouse gas emissions without any adverse effect on the recorded economic activities second the production function in the unrecorded economy is not stable furthermore economic policies to combat unrecorded economy may not serve as a complement to energy conservation policies

electricity consumption real gdp causality nexus evidence from a bootstrapped causality test for 30 oecd countries the goal of this paper is to examine any causal effects between electricity consumption and real gdp for 30 oecd countries we use a bootstrapped causality testing approach and unravel evidence in favour of electricity consumption causing real gdp in australia iceland italy the slovak republic the czech republic korea portugal and the uk the implication is that electricity conservation policies will negatively impact real gdp in these countries however for the rest of the 22 countries our findings suggest that electricity conversation policies will not affect real gdp

nexus between non renewable energy demand and economic growth in bangladesh application of maximum entropy bootstrap approach abstract the paper analyzes the causal relationship between energy demand and economic growth in bangladesh using annual time series data from 1980 to 2011 from world development indicator wdi database of the world bank since the results of causal direction are sensitive to the models being employed the paper uses maximum entropy bootstrap meboot due to its superiority to overcome small sample bias and limitation of asymptotic distribution theory to avoid the omitted variables bias the paper uses multivariate framework in production function specification the paper finds that a unidirectional causality runs from economic growth to energy demand which indicates that conservative policy might not harm the bangladesh economy but since economic progress leads higher energy consumption demand side management of energy and exploring renewable energy sources are must the implications are discussed

forecasting wheat exports do exchange rates matter a vector autoregression is fit to recent u s data on wheat prices wheat export sales wheat export shipments and exchange rates forecast error decompositions and out of sample forecasts indicate that exchange rates have little influence on wheat sales and shipments

energy consumption and gdp causality relationship in g 7 countries and emerging markets abstract the causality relationship between energy consumption and income is a well studied topic in energy economics this paper studies the time series properties of energy consumption and gdp and reexamines the causality relationship between the two series in the top 10 emerging markets excluding china due to lack of data and g 7 countries we discover bi directional causality in argentina causality running from gdp to energy consumption in italy and korea and from energy consumption to gdp in turkey france germany and japan hence energy conservation may harm economic growth in the last four countries

energy consumption economic growth nexus for pakistan taming the untamed abstract a recent survey of energy growth literature has highlighted the potential trade off between bivariate models that suffer from omitted variable bias and the danger of over parameterization of multivariate models in the individual country setting narayan and smyth 2 this is a serious limitation when the interest is in drawing policy implications for specific countries with short times series of available data the maximum entropy bootstrap approach was used to re examine the nature of causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth for pakistan where the available time series data was only from 1971 to 2011 unlike the techniques used in much of the earlier literature this approach does not rely on asymptotic methods and therefore leads to robust inference even in small samples moreover the approach can be applied in the presence of non stationarity of any type and structural breaks without requiring data transformation for to achieving stationarity and is not sensitive to specification errors such as those in lag length selection the empirical findings based on both the bivariate as well as the multivariate frameworks supported the conservation hypothesis implying the existence of a unidirectional causality from economic growth to energy consumption

an econometric study of co2 emissions energy consumption income and foreign trade in turkey abstract this study attempts to empirically examine the dynamic causal relationships between carbon emissions energy consumption income and foreign trade in the case of turkey using the time series data for the period 1960 2005 this research tests the interrelationship between the variables using the bounds testing to cointegration procedure the bounds test results indicate that there exist two forms of long run relationships between the variables in the case of first form of long run relationship carbon emissions are determined by energy consumption income and foreign trade in the case of second long run relationship income is determined by carbon emissions energy consumption and foreign trade an augmented form of granger causality analysis is conducted amongst the variables the long run relationship of co2 emissions energy consumption income and foreign trade equation is also checked for the parameter stability the empirical results suggest that income is the most significant variable in explaining the carbon emissions in turkey which is followed by energy consumption and foreign trade moreover there exists a stable carbon emissions function the results also provide important policy recommendations

lag length selection and tests of granger causality between money and income one of the most widely accepred relationships in macroeconomics is the positive relationship between the rate of growth of the money supply and the rate of growth of income a diversity of opinion arises however with the attempt to identify a causal relationship between these variables while friedman and schwartz 1963 initiated the empirical investigation of money income causality sims 1972 made the most significant contribution to this literature with a practical application of the criterion developed by granger 1969 for identifying a causal relationship since the appearance of sims s approach and an alternative one advanced by sargent 1976 many researchers have applied these techniques to the investigation of the causal relationship between money and income l with two exceptions hsiao 1981 and mcmillin and fackler 1984 these researchers have arbitrarily chosen the lengths of their distributed lags the purpose of this paper is to test for granger causality between money and income this paper differs from previous work in that considerably more attention is focused on the effect of the lag specification on the test results in particular we investigate the extent to which rules of thumb arbitrary lag specifications and

information and the skewness of music sales this paper studies the role of product discovery in the demand for recorded music we show that releasing a new album causes a substantial and permanent increase in sales of the artist s old albums especially if the new release is a hit patterns in these backward spillovers suggest that they result from consumers discovering the artist upon hearing the new release to explore the implications of consumers incomplete information we estimate a simple learning based model of market demand our results imply that the distribution of sales is substantially more skewed than it would be if consumers were more fully informed

luck effort and reward in an organizational hierarchy using the personnel records of a large british financial sector employer we investigate how workers respond to remuneration differences and luck in the promotion system the results confirm that workers respond to larger remuneration spreads by working harder increased certainty in the promotion process also has this effect there appears to be no difference between men s and women s reactions to promotion incentives gender differences in the raw data therefore appear not due to incentives we need to look elsewhere for an explanation

economic growth and energy consumption causal nexus viewed through a bootstrap rolling window one puzzling results in the literature on energy consumption economic growth causality is the variability of results particularly across sample periods sample sizes and model specification in order overcome these issues this paper analyzes the causal links between energy consumption and economic growth for g 7 countries using bootstrap granger non causality tests with fixed size rolling subsamples the data used includes annual total energy consumption and real gross domestic product gdp series from 1960 to 2006 for g 7 countries excluding germany for which the sample period starts from 1971 using the full sample bootstrap granger causality test we find that there is predictive power from energy consumption to economic growth only for canada however parameter instability tests show that none of the estimated models have constant parameters and hence the full sample results are not reliable analogous to the full sample results the results obtained from the bootstrap rolling window estimation indicate no consistent causal links between energy consumption and economic growth we however find that causal links are present between the series in various subsamples furthermore these subsample periods correspond to significant economic events indicating that the findings are not statistical artefacts but correspond to real economic changes our results encompass previous findings and offer an explanation to varying findings

exchange rate uncertainty and agricultural trade using a sample of bilateral trade flows across ten developed countries between 1974 and 1995 this article explores the effect of exchange rate uncertainty on the growth of agricultural trade as compared to other sectors based on a gravity model that controls for other factors likely to determine bilateral trade the results show that real exchange rate uncertainty has had a significant negative effect on agricultural trade over this period moreover the negative impact of uncertainty on agricultural trade has been more significant compared to other sectors

mean reversion in investment decisions the case of hollywood one explanation for the comparatively lower quality of movie sequels is selection bias known in personnel economics as the peter principle only abnormally successful movies are selected for a sequel another explanation is a deterministic depreciation in quality due to the decline in the novelty of the sequel s characters and storyline both explanations predict that relative to the original the sequel s performance will revert towards the mean we develop a structural model to decompose the two explanations and estimate its parameters using detailed data on 306 franchise films and 2 823 non franchise films between 1995 and 2014 parameter estimates provide evidence of selection bias for action adventure and horror movies and evidence of a deterministic decline in quality for comedies

residential electricity demand dynamics in turkey abstract this article provides fresh empirical evidences for the income and price elasticies of the residential energy demand both in the short run and long run for turkey over the period 1968 2005 using the bounds testing procedure to cointegration the computed elasticities of income and price are consistent with the previous studies and as expected the long run elasticities are greater than the short run elasticities an augmented form of granger causality analysis is implemented among residential electricity income price and urbanization in the long run causality runs interactively through the error correction term from income price and urbanization to residential energy but the short run causality tests are inconclusive the parameter stability of the short run as well as long run coefficients in the residential energy demand function are tested the results of these tests display a stable pattern

energy consumption and economic growth in china a reconciliation abstract in conventional causality testing based on asymptotic distribution theory there is a high risk of wrongly rejecting the true null of no causality especially when the sample size is as small as typically seen in the literature in this study we offer a formal diagnosis of the existing contradictory results on the causal relationship between energy consumption and real gdp we also employ a time series oriented advanced data generation process to perform simulation based inference for the people s republic of china our study covers the 1971 2007 period and considers five different aggregated and disaggregated energy consumption measures as well as three different lag orders in both a bivariate as well as a multivariate frameworks our maximum entropy bootstrap based analysis which avoids pretest biases and is also robust to type i errors supports the neutrality hypothesis in 53 out of the total of 60 model estimations the strong results show that coarse aggregate data has a limited potential to observe the complex causal linkages between energy consumption and economic growth future policy oriented research on this nexus requires more focused analyses based on sectoral and provincial data

are output fluctuations transitory according to the conventional view of the business cycle fluctuations in output represent temporary deviations from trend the purpose of this paper is to question this conventional view if fluctuations in output are dominated by temporary deviations from the natural rate of output then an unexpected change in output today should not substantially change one s forecast of output in say five or ten years our examination of quarterly postwar united states data leads us to be skeptical about this implication the data suggest that an unexpected change in real gnp of 1 percent should change one s forecast by over 1 percent over a long horizon

the causality between energy consumption and economic growth in turkey abstract this paper applies the causality test to examine the causal relationship between primary energy consumption ec and real gross national product gnp for turkey during 1970 2006 we employ unit root tests the augmented dickey fuller adf and the philips perron pp johansen cointegration test and pair wise granger causality test to examine relation between ec and gnp our empirical results indicate that the two series are found to be non stationary however first differences of these series lead to stationarity further the results indicate that ec and gnp are cointegrated and there is bidirectional causality running from ec to gnp and vice versa this means that an increase in ec directly affects economic growth and that economic growth also stimulates further ec this bidirectional causality relationship between ec and gnp determined for turkey at 1970 2006 period is in accordance with the ones in literature reported for similar countries consequently we conclude that energy is a limiting factor to economic growth in turkey and hence shocks to energy supply will have a negative impact on economic growth

bootstrap inference in econometrics the astonishing increase in computer performance over the past two decades has made it possible for economists to base many statistical inferences on simulated or bootstrap distributions rather than on distributions obtained from asymptotic theory in this paper i review some of the basic ideas of bootstrap inference the paper discusses monte carlo tests several types of bootstrap test and bootstrap confidence intervals although bootstrapping often works well it does not do so in every case

electricity consumption and economic growth evidence from turkey abstract this study investigates the causal relationship between electricity consumption and real gdp in turkey during the period of 1950 2000 both of the series were found to be a stationary process around a structural break by the zivot and andrews test thus two different methodologies have been employed to test the granger non causality the dolado lutkepohl test using the vars in levels and the standard granger causality test using the detrended data both tests have yielded a strong evidence for unidirectional causality running from the electricity consumption to the income this implies that the supply of electricity is vitally important to meet the growing electricity consumption hence to sustain the economic growth in turkey

exchange rate uncertainty and us bilateral fresh fruit and fresh vegetable trade an application of the gravity model in order to analyse the effect of exchange rate uncertainty we apply an empirical gravity equation to two sets of us bilateral trade data fresh fruit over the period 1976 1999 for a panel of 26 countries and fresh vegetables over the period 1976 2006 for a panel of nine countries based on panel estimation methods and using both a moving sd measure and the peree and steinherr 1989 measure of exchange rate uncertainty the results show that us bilateral fresh fruit trade has been negatively affected by exchange rate uncertainty we also find some evidence that the exchange rate between the us dollar and the currencies of latin american trading partners accounts for most of the negative impact of exchange rate uncertainty on bilateral trade flows in fresh fruit in contrast when using panel estimation methods and both measures of exchange rate uncertainty we find no statistically significant evidence for any negative effect of exchange rate uncertainty on us bilateral fresh vegetable trade however

how many times again will we examine the energy income nexus using a limited range of traditional econometric tools during the last three decades following closely the developments in econometric theory energy and environmental economists have empirically examined the energy income nexus for different countries and time periods however today in spite of the growing interest in this area the state of knowledge is still controversial and unsettled this viewpoint paper attempts to highlight some of the issues related to the existing literature on the long run relationship and causality between energy consumption and economic growth in particular it discusses how it is difficult to make policy recommendations on the basis of inconsistent and conflicting results in the published literature on the subject in order to do so the paper first illustrates the increasing trend in the number of studies published in this area providing also a brief comparison of the conventional methods used to estimate the energy income nexus it then deals with new directions and different viewpoints on the same issue

analyzing energy consumption and gdp nexus using maximum entropy bootstrap the case of turkey abstract we employ a maximum entropy bootstrap based framework to analyze the energy consumption and real gdp nexus between 1950 and 2006 in turkey our approach provides more accurate inference in comparison to conventional hypothesis tests based on asymptotic theory it also avoids preliminary testing and shape destroying transformations such as differencing and detrending the bivariate analysis as well as a multivariate framework controlling for exchange rate and oil prices shows no evidence of a causal relation our results are robust to both the number of lags and the time period chosen we also perform a cointegration analysis of the data and point out a common misunderstanding in the literature regarding the concept of causation

u s corn exports the role of the exchange rate abstract time series econometric methods are applied to monthly observational data over the period 1978 1992 on real exchange rates real corn prices corn export sales and corn export shipments for the united states in sample fit and out of sample forecast results are used to discern whether exchange rates have elicited systematic responses in u s corn prices sales and shipments and whether the dynamic transmission mechanisms tying these variables together have changed over time a structural break appears to have occurred in early 1985 no cointegration is found between exchange rates price sales and shipments in either sub period influences are all short run or between stationary variables the role of the exchange rate appears to have moderated in the post 1985 period implications for policy analysis are discussed

exploring the relationship between agricultural electricity consumption and output new evidence from turkish regional data abstract this study investigates the relationship between agricultural electricity consumption and agricultural output for a panel of 12 regions of turkey for the period 1995 2013 in order to reveal the possible heterogeneity between regions empirical analyses are conducted for the whole panel data and two sub groups within the panel data namely coastal regions and non coastal regions the results from several panel unit root tests indicate that electricity consumption and output are stationary process at their levels for overall panel and the two specific groups by using the ols with regional fixed effects this study finds that coefficient estimate of electricity consumption on output is statistically significant and positive for overall regions coastal regions and non coastal regions in addition the results from the dumitrescu hurlin granger causality test show that there is unidirectional causality running from agricultural output to electricity consumption for non coastal regions and there is bidirectional causality between agricultural electricity consumption and output for overall panel and coastal regions findings and policy implications are further discussed

agricultural and financial market interdependence in the short run a theoretical model capable of examining the effects of various monetary policies on agriculture is developed results from comparative static experiments with the model show that a restrictive monetary policy may adversely affect agriculture results from the theoretical model are compared with earlier studies and are empirically investigated using vector autoregression techniques in general empirical analysis supports the theoretical developments

sectoral energy consumption by source and economic growth in turkey this paper provides a detailed analysis of the energy consumption in turkey during the last 40 years it investigates the causal relationships between income and energy consumption in two ways first the relationship is studied at the aggregate level then we focus on the industrial sector previous findings suggest that in the case of turkey there is a unidirectional causality running from energy consumption to growth however our findings suggest that in the long run income and energy consumption appear to be neutral with respect to each other both at the aggregate and at the industrial level we also find a strong evidence of instantaneous causality which means that contemporaneous values of energy consumption and income are correlated furthermore a descriptive analysis is conducted in order to reveal the differences in the use of energy resources we conclude that energy conservation policies are necessary for environmental concerns and our empirical results imply that such policies would not impede economic growth in the long term

an investigation of the effect of monetary factors on agriculture abstract this paper uses an econometric model to assess some of the effects of macro monetary factors on u s agricultural markets attention is focused on impacts of decreasing increasing the level of domestic credit on agricultural trade prices inventory accumulation and domestic disappearance results show that tight monetary policy lowers prices and increase demand for domestic agriculture however the upward pressure on the exchange rate seriously deteriorates the position of u s exports in international markets

macroeconomics and agriculture in tunisia this article aims to analyse the impact of changes in the monetary policy and the exchange rate on agricultural supply prices and exports the methodology used is based on the multivariate cointegration approach ten variables are considered interest and exchange rates money supply inflation agricultural output and input prices agricultural supply and exports income and the rate of commercial openness the sample period covers annual data from 1967 to 2002 due to the short sample period two subsystems are considered first long run relationships are identified in each subsystem second both subsystems are merged in order to calculate the short run dynamics the results indicate that changes in macroeconomic variables have an effect on the agricultural sector but the reverse effect does not hold

structural break unit root and the causality between energy consumption and gdp in turkey abstract this paper tries to investigate a series of unit root and causality tests to detect causality between the gdp and energy consumption in turkey employing hsiao s version of granger causality method for the 1950 2000 period the conventional unit root tests indicate the series are i 1 whereas the endogenous break unit root tests proposed by zivot and andrews zivot e and andrews d w k 1992 further evidence on the great crash the oil price shock and the unit root hypothesis journal of business and economics statistics 10 251 270 and perron perron p 1997 further evidence on breaking trend functions in macroeconomic variables journal of econometrics 80 355 385 reveal that the series are trend stationary with a structural break therefore it is inappropriate to take the first difference of the data to achieve stationarity the main conclusion of this study is that there is no evidence of causality between energy consumption and gdp in turkey based on the detrended data

energy consumption and gdp in turkey is there a co integration relationship energy consumption and gdp are expected to grow by 5 9 and 7 annually until 2025 in turkey this paper tries to unfold the linkage between energy consumption and gdp by undertaking a co integration analysis for turkey with annual data over the period 1970 2003 the analysis shows that energy consumption and gdp are co integrated this means that there is a possibly bi directional causality relationship between the two we establish that there is a unidirectional causality running from gdp to energy consumption indicating that energy saving would not harm economic growth in turkey in addition we find that energy consumption keeps on growing as long as the economy grows in turkey

a literature survey on energy growth nexus abstract this paper provides a survey of the recent progress in the literature of energy consumption economic growth and electricity consumption economic growth causality nexus the survey highlights that most empirical studies focus on either testing the role of energy electricity in stimulating economic growth or examining the direction of causality between these two variables although the positive role of energy on growth has become a stylized fact there are some methodological reservations about the results from these empirical studies a general observation from these studies is that the literature produced conflicting results and there is no consensus neither on the existence nor on the direction of causality between energy consumption electricity consumption and economic growth as a policy implication to avoid from conflicting and unreliable results the authors may use the autoregressive distributed lags bounds test two regime threshold co integration models panel data approach and multivariate models including new variables such as real gross fixed capital formation labor force carbon dioxide emissions population exchange rates interest rates etc thus the authors should focus more on the new approaches and perspectives rather than by employing usual methods based on a set of common variables for different countries and different intervals of time