equilibrium behavior in crisis bargaining games this paper analyzes a general model of two player bargaining in the shadow of war where one player possesses private information concerning the expected benefits of war i derive conclusions about equilibrium behavior by examining incentive compatibility constraints where these constraints hold regardless of the game form hence the qualitative results are game free i show that the higher the informed player s payoff from war the higher is his or her equilibrium payoff from settling the dispute short of war and the higher is the equilibrium probability of war the latter result rationalizes the monotonicity assumption prevalent in numerous expected utility models of war i then provide a general result concerning the equilibrium relationship between settlement payoffs and the probability of war

total factor carbon emission performance of the chinese transportation industry a bootstrapped non radial malmquist index analysis this paper proposes a non radial malmquist co2 emission performance index nmcpi for measuring dynamic changes in total factor co2 emission performance over time this index enables the consideration of non radial slacks in the conventional malmquist co2 emission index mcpi the nmcpi is calculated based on a non radial directional distance function derived by several data envelopment analysis dea models furthermore nmcpi could be decomposed into an efficiency change ec index and technological change tc index a bootstrapping approach is conducted to introduce statistical inferences into the nmcpi and its decompositions based on the proposed indices the dynamic co2 emission performance change and its decompositions of the chinese regional transportation industry from 2002 to 2010 are investigated the empirical results demonstrate that the total factor carbon emission performance of the transportation industry as a whole decreased by 32 8 over the period and this reduction was primarily caused by technological decline

trade foreign direct investment and economic growth in asian economies despite the increasing role of foreign direct investment fdi in economic development very limited research has been carried out on the causal links between trade fdi and economic growth in asian economies this study examines empirically the inter play between exports imports fdi and economic growth for nine asian economies by conducting multivariate causality tests in the vector error correction model vecm framework the results reveal two way causal connections between trade inward fdi inward merger and acquisitions m as and growth for most of the sample economies there is a unidirectional causal link running from outward m as to growth and trade these findings suggest that export expansion import liberalization fdi inflows and inward m as are integral elements of the growth process in asian economies

the contribution of tourism development to economic growth in the korean economy abstract this study investigates the causal relations between tourism growth and economic expansion for the korean economy by using engle and granger two stage approach and a bivariate vector autoregression var model two principle results emerge from this study first the results of a cointegration test indicate that there is no long run equilibrium relation between two series second the outcomes of granger causality test imply the one way causal relationship of economic driven tourism growth the hypothesis of tourism led economic growth is not held in the korean economy this consequence is supported by testing the sensitivity of causality test under different lag selections along with the optimal lag

known unknowns power shifts uncertainty and war large and rapid power shifts resulting from exogenous economic growth are considered sufficient to cause preventive wars yet most large and rapid shifts result from endogenous military investments we show that when the investment decision is perfectly transparent peace prevails large and rapid power shifts are deterred through the threat of a preventive war when investments remain undetected however states may be tempted to introduce power shifts as a fait accompli knowing this their adversaries may strike preventively even without conclusive evidence of militarization in fact the more effective preventive wars are the more likely they will be launched against states that are not militarizing our argument emphasizes the role of imperfect information as a cause of war it also explains why powerful states may attack weaker targets even with ambiguous evidence of their militarization we illustrate our theory through an account of the 2003 us led invasion of iraq

a cross country analysis of aggregate energy and carbon intensities abstract an update on the study by ang energy economics 9 1987 274 286 shows substantial changes in the relationship between energy consumption and national output across world countries from 1975 to 1997 while the ratio of commercial energy consumption to national output increases across countries as per capita income increases in 1975 the converse is observed in 1997 the cross country energy elasticity has also dropped from values well above unity to below or close to unity using the 1997 data the relationship between co 2 emissions and national output across countries is studied and the results show some interesting differences from that between energy consumption and national output

the armed peace a punctuated equilibrium theory of war according to a leading rationalist explanation war can break out when a large rapid shift of power renders unbelievable a rising state s promise to compensate its declin ing opponent causing the latter to attack preventively this mechanism does not provide a complete and coherent explanation of war because it does not specify how inefficient fighting resolves this commitment problem we present a complete information model of war as a sequence of battles and show that although opportunities for a negotiated settle ment arise throughout the very desirability of peace creates a commitment problem that undermines its likelihood because players have incentives to settle as soon as possible they cannot credibly threaten to fight long enough if an opponent launches a surprise at tack this decreases the expected duration and costs of war and causes mutual deterrence to fail fighting s sheer destruction improves the credibility of these threats by decreasing the benefits from continuing the war equilibrium fighting may involve escalating costs that exceed the value of the stakes by the time peace is negotiated and that leave both players worse off than when the war began

on the export led growth hypothesis the econometric evidence from china the export led growth hypothesis is tested by estimating an augmented growth equation on the basis of times series data from china the granger no causality procedure developed by toda and yamamoto journal of econometrics 66 1995 was applied to test the causality link between exports and economic growth in a var system three distinct features in this paper stand out compared to earlier studies on china first we have gone beyond the traditional two variable relationship by building a var model in the production function context to avoid a possible specification bias second we follow riezman whiteman and summers empirical economics 21 1996 to test the export led growth hypothesis while controlling for the growth of imports to avoid producing a spurious causality result third we test the sensitivity of causality test results under different lag structures along with the choice of optimal lags in particular the methodology developed by toda and yamamoto 1995 is expected to improve the stan

fiscal spending and green economic growth evidence from china abstract the green economy is considered as an efficient way for sustainability but the connection between fiscal spending and green economic growth has not been systematically explained this paper attempts to fill this research gap based on the panel data of 282 prefecture level cities from 2005 to 2016 we first construct the green economic growth index by using the non radial direction distance function then by employing the system gmm estimation we further evaluate the effect of fiscal education spending and r d spending on green economic growth finally we explore the potential mechanism and discuss our findings we obtain the following conclusions 1 the green economic growth index fluctuated in the study period we attribute it to the political tournament of local governments 2 the system gmm estimation results confirm the existence of composition effect and technique effect in the full sample but the sub sample analysis suggests that there is a heterogeneous effect in different areas with different resources abundant degree 3 mechanism analysis illustrates that fiscal r d spending and education spending foster the green economic growth through technological activities and human capital intensive activities respectively but they exhibit distinct roles in different areas based on these findings we propose some targeted policy suggestions for promoting green economic growth

export led growth and structural change evidence from malaysia many studies have tried to establish the causal link between export expansion and economic growth this contribution is to recognize that structural changes will change the sources of growth and this will affect the export growth relationship a country case study approach is used focusing on malaysia a country with one of the world s highest sustained growth rates and a long history of commodity trade we use var analysis of malaysian quarterly trade and gdp growth from 1965 to 1996 trade data are disaggregated into primary and manufactures exports and causality tests are applied to the entire period as well as two subperiods 150 the 1965 1501980 period when policy emphasis was on import substitution and the 1981 1501996 period when policies favoured export led growth statistical tests confirm export led growth for the full period and for the period to 1980 but tests on the 1981 1501996 period show growth causing exports primary exports had a stronger direct impact on economic growth than manufactu

export composition and growth of selected low income african countries evidence from time series data this paper examines the hypothesis that economic growth is linked to export composition with the use of time series data for some low income african countries on the basis of the regression results the study supports the hypothesis of a positive linkage between the growth of non fuel primary exports and growth however the results cast some doubt on the significance of the positive contribution of the manufactured exports sector to the growth process of the low income african countries

exports and growth is the export led growth hypothesis valid for provincial economies this paper re examines the export led growth hypothesis using provincial data unlike other studies that concentrate on country level data this study investigates the validity of the hypothesis for four largest provinces in korea seoul kyunggee kyungnam and pusan the causal implication of the export led growth hypothesis is generally supported for all provinces in the sample the framework of analysis is two and four variable autoregressive models that include provincial exports provincial output terms of trade and national output shocks granger causal orderings from exports to output growth are generally supported in bivariate causal models in multivariate models variance decompositions and impulse response functions further indicate that export growth has a significant impact on output growth for all provinces although a feedback effect from output to export growth appears in seoul and the kyungnam province

agricultural exports and economic growth empirical evidence from the major rice exporting countries this study investigates the evidence of the export led growth in major rice exporting countries using the extended production model in addition a special attention is paid to sectoral exports which are specified as non agricultural agricultural excluding rice exports and rice exports the main finding of this study is that the rice exports are an important means of stimulating economic growth in major rice exporting countries

optimal path for controlling co2 emissions in china a perspective of efficiency analysis this paper examines the optimal control of co2 emissions from a perspective of efficiency analysis several centralized data envelopment analysis dea models are introduced to study the optimal allocation of co2 emissions under spatial temporal and spatial temporal allocation strategies respectively the models have been used to determine the optimal paths for controlling co2 emissions at provincial and regional levels in china a sensitivity analysis of the optimal path on the emission control coefficient under spatial temporal allocation strategy is further carried out our empirical results show that more developed regions should take emission reduction responsibility earlier than less developed regions in china of the three allocation strategies spatial temporal allocation strategy seems to be a better choice for achieving the optimal control of co2 emissions at country level since it is more encompassing by allowing both timing and spatial substitutions it is also found that there exists an inverted u shape relationship between the aggregate optimal gdp and the emission control coefficient which shows that modest emission reduction policy might be more appropriate for china in order to achieve the joint goals of economic development and co2 emission reduction

borrowed power debt finance and the resort to arms military expenditure is often funded by debt and war losers often repudiate some or all of their obligations since governments tend to repay their debt in peace or victory negotiated settlements become inefficient and can affect crisis bargaining and war termination i analyze a complete information model in which players can determine the distribution of power through their military allocations b efore attempting to reach a peaceful bargain i show that players might borrow to improve their military capabilities even when doing so will make it impossible to settle the dispute without fighting this new explanation for war is not driven by commitment problems or informational asymmetries but by the inefficiency of peace imposed by the need to repay the debt wa r is the result of actions that eliminate the bargaining range rather than inability to loc ate mutually acceptable deals in that range as the traditional explanation has it

on the relevance of exports for regional output growth in china despite high economic growth during the past decades china is still vulnerable to shocks arising from industrial states the advanced economies strongly influence chinese export performance with subsequent effects on output growth using a production function this article examines to which extent regional gdp growth in china is export driven in a panel of 28 chinese provinces series are splitted into common and idiosyncratic components the latter being stationary the results indicate cointegration between the common components of gdp the capital stock and exports in equilibrium exports increase gdp by more than their impact expected from the national accounts while exports and capital are weakly exogenous gdp responds to deviations from the long run a similar adjustment pattern can be detected for most regions except for some provinces in the western part of the country

the power to hurt costly conflict with completely informed states according to common explanations of war since war is costly and risky rational states have incentives to strike a bargain and avoid conflict war is then the result of private information about capabilities or resolve and incentives to misrepresent this information or inability to make credible commitments fearon 1995 this article presents another rationalist explanation which does not depend on either of these mechanisms by modeling warfare as a costly bargaining process the paper demonstrates that inefficient fighting can occur in equilibrium under very general assumptions favoring peace specifically it is assumed that peace can be supported in equilibrium and that fighting brings no benefits to either state only costs despite the fact that there exist many agreements that pareto dominate the final settlement states are unable to agree to them and fighting can occur in equilibrium the equilibrium is driven by the ability of states to impose costs on their opponent and bear costs the power to hurt the opponent establishes a range of acceptable settlements and the existence of such a range makes inefficient equilibria possible the article suggests that 1 states may fight if they believe that seeking peace means accepting an unpalatable settlement and 2 a diminished ability to hurt the enemy is a major reason for war termination historical examples are provided to illustrate these results

the principle of convergence in wartime negotiations if war results from disagreement about relative strength then it ends when opponents learn enough about each other learning occurs when information is revealed by strategically manipulable negotiation behavior and nonmanipulable battlefield outcomes i present a model of simultaneous bargaining and fighting where both players can make offers and asymmetric information exists about the distribution of power in the markov perfect sequential equilibrium making and rejecting offers has informational value that outweighs the one provided by the battlefield however states use both sources of information to learn and settle before military victory the principle of convergence posits that warfare ceases to be useful when it loses its informational content and that belief in defeat victory is not necessary to terminate initiate hostilities thus the standard puzzle in international relations that seeks to account for prewar optimism on both sides may not be that relevant

uncertainty shifting power and appeasement great britain faced an immensely complicated strategic problem in the 1930s and important aspects of it can be stylized as a situation in which a state that is declining in power is unsure of the aims of a rising state if those aims are limited then the declining state prefers to appease the rising state s demands rather than go to war to oppose them if however the rising state s demands are unlimited then the declining state prefers fighting and given that the declining state is becoming weaker over time it prefers fighting sooner rather than later if there is to be a war this situation creates a trade off the earlier a state stands firm the stronger it will be if war ensues but the higher the chance of fighting an unnecessary war in equilibrium the declining state generally tries to appease the rising state by making a series of concessions

a var approach to the economics of fdi in china using a vector autoregression var approach this study re examines several hypotheses suggested by the economic literature on the economics of fdi applying quarterly time series data from china a country which has recently become the second largest host country for fdi innovation accounting variance decomposition and impulse response function analysis is applied to analyse the various interrelationships between fdi and other economic variables of interest in a var system the empirical research using this method in the case of china is limited the study therefore provides an interesting advance in the literature on the economics of fdi in china

a metafrontier approach for measuring an environmentally sensitive productivity growth index this paper presents an alternative environmentally sensitive productivity growth index to incorporate group heterogeneities into a conventional malmquist luenberger productivity growth index the p

the might of the pen a reputational theory of communication in international disputes i present a theory of effective diplomacy based on honesty and reputations i model diplomacy as a form of cheap talk and international interactions as an infinitely repeated game in which similar states find themselves in disparate situations over time the theory explains the success and failure of diplomacy reputations for honesty make honest communication possible a state caught bluffing is less able to communicate and less likely to attain its goals in the near future these findings imply that domestic audience costs are unnecessary for international signaling and that military strength is not the only way to build credibility

efficient secrecy public versus private threats in crisis diplomacy this paper explores when and why private communication works in crisis diplomacy conventional audience cost models suggest that state leaders must go public to reveal information in interstate crises because leaders cannot enhance their credibility by tying their hands if domestic audiences cannot observe their private signals i present a crisis bargaining game where both the sender and the receiver of signals have a domestic audience the equilibrium analysis demonstrates that a private threat albeit of limited credibility can be equally compelling as a fully credible public threat secrecy works in crisis diplomacy despite its informational ine cacy because secrecy insulates leaders from domestic political consequences when they capitulate to a challenge to avoid risking unwarranted war the logic of e cient secrecy may shed light on the unaccounted history of private diplomacy in international crises the alaska boundary dispute illustrates this logic

mutual optimism as a rationalist explanation of war blainey 1988 popularized the argument that crises are more likely to end in war when two nations disagree about their relative bargaining power this is known as the mutual optimism cause of war fey and ramsay 2007 argue that existing models of crisis bargaining cannot properly evaluate this explanation they propose an alternative class of models with features they claim are better suited for the purpose and prove that war cannot occur with positive probability in equilibrium in any model of this class they conclude that the mutual optimism explanation is logically incoherent we provide a modern rationalist specification of the mutual optimism explanation using our standard models and defend them against the five allegations fey and ramsay make against them we further show that their result has little to do with optimism but instead depends on two indefensible assumptions 1 actors can unilaterally avoid war by imposing peace terms on opponents who find them worse than war and 2 the terms of any peace outcome cannot depend on crisis behavior their class of models cannot be used to study crisis bargaining in general and mutual optimism in particular

co2 emission abatement cost and its decomposition a directional distance function approach accurately estimating carbon dioxide co2 abatement costs and effectively identifying the factors impacting those costs can improve the applicability and effectiveness of policy implementation this paper proposes a new method to estimate co2 abatement costs cac based on the directional distance function the method theoretically decomposes cac into carbon productivity and output elasticity of substitutions this decomposition can identify the types of cac the method also investigates the effects of development mode selection on cac by selecting different directional vectors following the theoretical discussion an empirical study is presented focusing on high energy consumption firms in the united states u s the results were as follows 1 in sustainable development mode changes in the average cac of all firms were caused both by carbon productivity and output elasticity of substitution carbon productivity dominated cac differences among different firm types 2 in general the amelioration potential of firm technology and environmental management was gradually explored by firms during sample period corresponding environmental regulatory strategies are needed for firms with different cac characteristics 3 firms selecting different development modes will realize significant differences in cac firms in the sustainable development mode had the highest cac levels however this mode was best for achieving a win win between economic benefits and environmental protection

atheoretical macroeconometrics a critique abstract the spurious nature of the restrictions used to identify many macroeconometric models has led some researchers to advocate a style of econometric inquiry that is less dependent on prior theoretical restrictions of the sort that were central to the approach of the cowles commission this development which we call atheoretical macroeconometrics is summarized and evaluated in the current paper it is contrasted with an updated version of the cowles commission approach we conclude that while some of the exercises of atheoretical macroeconometrics are valid those that have attracted the most attention and appear the most innovative exogeneity testing impulse response analysis and policy analysis using estimated vector autoregressions are based on incorrect analysis

does financial development lead economic growth a vector auto regression appraisal using a vector autoregression var approach several hypotheses are re examined suggested by the literature concerning the relationship between financial development and economic growth investment and productivity the models use quarterly time series data from ten oecd countries and china innovation accounting or variance decomposition and impulse response function analysis is applied to examine interrelationships between variables in the var system and therefore differs from the more usual granger causality approach in particular it examines the relationship between financial development proxied by total credit at best weak support is found for the hypothesis that financial development leads economic growth

the role of exports fdi and imports in development evidence from sub saharan african countries the disappointing economic performance of sub saharan african ssa economies in the late 1980s prompted reforms in foreign trade and foreign direct investment fdi in the early 1990s using the autoregressive distributed lag ardl approach and pedroni panel estimation procedures that allow for heterogeneity this study found that exports and fdi have a significant impact on economic growth granger type causality tests show the interrelatedness of exports fdi imports and income variables the results also provide evidence of a two stage causal chain of exports imports and income this article calls for more market oriented policy reforms in ssa countries

causality cointegration and control abstract the first sections of the paper show that causality tests can be relevant when considering the effectiveness of a control mechanism rejecting some results in earlier papers the relevance comes from a more careful consideration of what information is available to whom and when compared to previous work the final section of the paper extends this analysis to cointegrated variables when causality is a necessary consequence

unit roots and cointegration in estimating causality between exports and economic growth empirical evidence from the asean countries abstract this paper utilizes cointegration and error correction representation methodology in estimating the long run behavioral relationship between exports and economic growth in the asean countries

military coercion in interstate crises in an international crisis states make demands backed by threats to use force although these threats can be explicit in diplomatic communications they will not generally carry much weight unless substantiated by some show of force military measures designed to convey the commitment to resort to arms if one s demands are not satisfactorily met to have an impact this commitment must be credible it must be in one s interest to carry out the threat if the opponent refuses to comply in an environment where states possess private information about their valuations capabilities or costs credibility can be established by actions that a state unwilling to fight would not want or would not dare to take military moves such as arms buildups troop mobilizations and deployments to the potential zone of operations can alter incentives in a crisis by changing one s expected payoff from the use of force these are tacit bargaining moves that can restructure the strategic context thereby creating and possibly signaling one s commitments while undermining those of the opponent how can states use the military instrument to establish commitments and how does the nature of the instrument affect their ability to communicate them credibly to their adversaries there are two distinct mechanisms for credible signaling in economic models information can be transmitted reliably by sinking costs actors burn money to reveal that they value the disputed issue even more in contrast theories of interstate crisis bargaining usually rely on choices that increase the difference between backing down and fighting actors tie their hands by running higher risks of war to reveal their resolve the first mechanism involves costs that actors pay regardless of outcome and the second involves costs that actors pay only if they fail to carry out some threat or promise

cheap talk and burned money we augment the standard crawford sobel 1982 econometrica 50 1431 1451 model of cheap talk communication by allowing the informed party to use both costless and costly messages the issues on which we focus are the consequences for cheap talk signaling of the option to burn money and the circumstances under which both cheap talk and burned money are used to signal information

exogeneity and the export led growth hypothesis the case of china during the past two decades many empirical studies such as balassa 3 4 emery 7 fajana 11 feder 12 maizels 21 rams 22 23 tyler 26 voivodas 27 williamson 28 and others have found that exports promote economic growth in all of these studies a real output growth variable is regressed on either i export levels ii export shares or iii export growth by using a single equation model the statistical significance of the positive coefficient of the export variables has then been interpreted as evidence supporting the export led growth hypothesis chow 6 hsiao 16 and jung and marshall 17 have recently questioned the validity of the above findings this is because the single equation or so called impact studies using ols regression are from an econometric perspective mostly inadequate in addressing the issue of causality if a bidirectional causality between these two variables exports and output exists the estimation and tests used in the impact studies are inconsistent these concerns have subsequently generated a series of new empirical work aimed directly at resolving the issue of causality between exports and output growth 1 2 14 20 the granger 15 causality tests carried out in these studies have revealed that the causal direction in general depends on the country and commodity group under consideration notwithstanding the important contributions of the above mentioned causality studies there are shortcomings that must be dealt with to permit a better understanding of the subject matter first the impact studies presume that the export variable is exogenous this is a rather restrictive assumption as a feedback from output to exports is very likely 17 20 second the existing causality gtudies do not make a clear distinction between exogeneity and causality as suggested by engle hendry and richard 10 hereinafter ehr causality tests such as the granger 15 method are valid only for testing one component of strong exogeneity because they are concerned with sequential marginalizing feedback effects rather than contemporaneous conditioning

guns butter and anarchy a state in the international system implicit in realism must allocate its limited resources between satisfying its intrinsically valued ends and the means of military power i formalize this guns versus butter problem in a simple infinite horizon model in which two states must continually decide how to allocate their resources and whether to attack the other state the analysis establishes sufficient conditions to ensure the existence of an equilibrium in which neither state attacks shows that there is a strictly pareto dominant pair of peaceful equilibrium payoffs characterizes the unique peaceful markov perfect equilibrium that yields them and describes the comparative statics of the equilibrium allocations more broadly the analysis also suggests that the notion of anarchy has little if any substantive significance distinctively related to international politics and that the problem of absolute and relative gains is superfluous

relationships between economic growth foreign direct investment and trade evidence from china this study investigates the causal links between trade economic growth and inward foreign direct investment fdi in china at the aggregate level the integration and cointegration properties of quarterly data are analysed long run relationships between growth exports imports and fdi are identified in a cointegration framework in which this paper finds bi directional causality between economic growth fdi and exports economic development exports and fdi appear to be mutually reinforcing under the open door policy

total factor energy efficiency of regions in china abstract this paper analyzes energy efficiencies of 29 administrative regions in china for the period 1995 2002 with a newly introduced index most existing studies of regional productivity and efficiency neglect energy inputs we use the data envelopment analysis dea to find the target energy input of each region in china at each particular year the index of total factor energy efficiency tfee then divides the target energy input by the actual energy input in our dea model labor capital stock energy consumption and total sown area of farm crops used as a proxy of biomass energy are the four inputs and real gdp is the single output the conventional energy productivity ratio regarded as a partial factor energy efficiency index is computed for comparison in contrast to tfee our index is found fitting better to the real case according to the tfee index rankings the central area of china has the worst energy efficiency and its total adjustmentof energy consumption amount is over half of china s total regional tfee in china generally improved during the research period except for the western area a u shape relation between the area s tfee and per capita income in the areas of china is found confirming the scenario that energy efficiency eventually improves with economic growth

decomposition of the environmental inefficiency of the meta frontier with undesirable output abstract in this paper we present an alternative analysis framework to evaluate the effects of technology heterogeneities and undesirable output on environmental efficiency measurement the proposed framework combines the directional distance function and a meta frontier analysis it can be used to measure efficiency improvements brought about by enhanced technical management and technological advances for demonstration purposes we used the framework to measure the environmental efficiency in 90 countries worldwide for the 2003 2007 period the results showed that when the meta technology set is used as the evaluation basis the average environmental efficiency of high competitiveness countries is greater than that of lower middle low and upper middle competitiveness countries the upper middle competitiveness countries perform worse than the lower middle and low competitiveness countries because of the excessive labor force usage and carbon dioxide emissions in these countries we also found that the environmental inefficiency of the meta frontier for high competitiveness countries can be attributed to managerial failure in the production process whereas that for upper middle lower middle and low competitiveness countries can be attributed to technological differences

nuclear superiority and the balance of resolve explaining nuclear crisis outcomes scholars have long debated whether nuclear superiority or the balance of resolve shapes the probability of victory in nuclear crises but they have not clearly articulated a mechanism linking superiority to victory nor have they systematically analyzed the entire universe of empirical cases beginning from a nuclear brinkmanship theory framework i develop a new theory of nuclear crisis outcomes which links nuclear superiority to victory in nuclear crises precisely through its effect on the balance of resolve using a new data set on fifty two nuclear crisis dyads i show that states that enjoy nuclear superiority over their opponents are more likely to win nuclear crises i also find some support for the idea that political stakes shape crisis outcomes these findings hold even after controlling for conventional military capabilities and for selection into nuclear crises this article presents a new theoretical explanation and the first comprehensive empirical examination of nuclear crisis outcomes

causality between export growth and industrial development empirial evidence from the nics abstract this paper investigates the causal relationship between export growth and industrial development in eight newly industrializing countries nics results of sims causality test show that for most of the nics there is a strong bidirectional causality between the growth of exports and industrial development these findings support the export led growth strategy in that expansion in exports not only promote the growth of national income but also lead to structural transformation of the developing countries

rationalist explanations for war realist and other scholars commonly hold that rationally led states can and sometimes do fight when no peaceful bargains exist that both would prefer to war against this view i show that under very broad conditions there will exist negotiated settlements that genuinely rational states would mutually prefer to a risky and costly fight popular rationalist and realist explanations for war fail either to address or to explain adequately what would prevent leaders from locating a less costly bargain essentially just two mechanisms can resolve this puzzle on strictly rationalist terms the first turns on the fact that states have both private information about capabilities and resolve and the incentive to misrepresent it the second turns on the fact that in specific strategic contexts states may be unable credibly to commit to uphold a mutually preferable bargain historical examples suggest that both mechanisms are empirically plausible

exports growth and causality in developing countries abstract previous empirical studies have interpreted results in regressions of output variables on export variables as providing support for an export promotion development strategy such an interpretation is questionable since these regressions provide no means of determining the direction of causality this paper performs causality tests between exports and growth for 37 developing countries the results cast considerable doubt on the validity of the export promotion hypothesis

measuring wellbeing performance of carbon emissions using hybrid measure and meta frontier techniques empirical tests for g20 countries and implications for china abstract a quantitative measure of performance that integrates national level carbon emission profiles with key parameters of social and economic wellbeing can provide an effective management tool for policy interventions this paper constructs non parametric evaluation and decomposition models using hybrid measure and meta frontier techniques the proposed models are employed to estimate the wellbeing performance of carbon emissions wpce and identify the sources of wpce inefficiency empirical analyses based on the group 20 g20 countries for the 2000 2015 period shows the worst performance is in the brics country group i e brazil russia india china and south africa known for rapid growth whereas the developed and the developing economies of the g20 group show positive trajectories of performance as for china its performance measure of wpce was the lowest among the g20 indicating significant potential for further improvement the analysis also highlights the role of managerial failure as the primary driver of inefficiency more important than technological inefficiency in explaining efficiency loss within the g20 countries this critical finding the relevance and importance of managerial capability suggests the need for a high level of attention to governance and managerial capacity to ensure continued improvements in performance on carbon emissions and human wellbeing a lesson to be drawn from this study is that china s policies to promote a low carbon economy can benefit from increased priority given to low carbon technological innovation for the energy system transition and enhancement of environmental governance and managerial capacity to achieve a long term sustainability

economic and environmental impact analysis of carbon tariffs on chinese exports as an alternative measure for the proposal of border tax adjustments btas advocated by the countries that seek to abate co2 emissions hereafter referred to as abating countries export carbon tax ect voluntarily conducted by the developing countries has been widely discussed in recent years this paper uses the multi regional and multi commodity computable general equilibrium cge model and the gtap8 1 database to investigate the economic and environmental effects of carbon tariffs on chinese exports the following three policy scenarios are considered 1 the abating countries implement cap and trade emission programs without btas 2 the unilaterally abating countries levy import tariffs and export subsidies on non abating countries and 3 the abating countries implement unilateral climate policies combined with ect imposed by china the ect policy of china is evaluated with a carbon price set at 17 us t co2 results illustrate that the ect voluntarily implemented by china is ineffective in reducing its domestic co2 emissions moreover ect merely has a minor impact on global emissions finally the competitiveness of china s energy intensive and trade exposed eite industries suffers substantial losses if export tariffs are imposed however china s gains in terms of welfare and gross domestic product gdp would be slightly improved if an ect policy is implemented compared to the scenario where china is subjected to btas levied by the abating coalition in the light of the tradeoff between tariff revenue for welfare and competiveness losses of the eite industries it is therefore difficult to conclude that carbon tariff on chinese exports is an alternative policy to btas

capabilities uncertainty and resolve a limited information model of crisis bargaining this paper presents and solves a crisis bargaining game under limited information the sides alternate offers from three possible offers with war and its costs starting if the target s counteroffer is rejected the equilibrium of the model falls into four different cases these four cases are analyzed to determine how the sides communicate through their offers and how the costs of war initial beliefs misperceptions and distribution of capabilities drive the probabilities of a crisis and war the model demonstrates a joint selection bias misspecification problem in empirical studies of crises arising from the unobservable nature of beliefs several empirical studies of crisis bargaining are discussed in the light of this methodological problem new patterns of evidence are found that support the presence of the selection problem and their conclusions are reexamined

a unified theory and test of extended immediate deterrence we present a unified theory and test of extended immediate deterrence unified in the sense that we employ our theoretical deterrence model as our statistical model in the empirical analysis the theoretical model is a straightforward formalization of the deterrence logic in huth 1988 and huth and russett 1984 coupled with private information concerning utilities our statistical analysis suggests that the attacker and defender s decisions are influenced by the balance of forces nuclear weapons defender protege military alliances arms transfers and trade as well as the regime types of those involved many of these findings contradict previous research by huth 1988 and huth and russett 1988 we find that many of the variables involved in the deterrence calculus are nonmonotonically linked to the probability of deterrence success or war we illustrate the results with case studies of the soviet japanese dispute over manchukuo 1937 1938 and the berlin blockade 1948

economic growth urbanization and energy consumption a provincial level analysis of china abstract as the largest developing country with fast paced economic growth china s development has been characterized by a high degree of energy consumption high level of heavy industry international trade and urbanization progress in this study we extend the current literature by incorporating urbanization energy consumption and international trade into a production function using a panel data set model over the period from 2001 to 2012 the results show that urbanization and capital are the major contributors to china s economic growth meanwhile there exists a u shaped relationship between urbanization and economic growth that heavy industry exerts a significant negative effect on economic growth using system generalized methods of moments gmm sys estimation methods and the relationship between international trade and economic growth is mixed and no consistent results support the conclusion that the international trade promotes economic growth adjusting the industry and trade structure in economic growth is the priority for the policy makers

changes in carbon intensity in china empirical findings from 1980 2003 china experienced sustainable rapid economic growth over the period 1980 2003 but at the same time energy related carbon intensity showed a downward trend it begs the question therefore what factors were driving this decline in carbon intensity and will this decline be maintained in future moreover what measures can be adopted to ensure a continual decline in carbon intensity these questions led to increased research in the factors governing co2 emission in china this paper quantifies the driving force behind china s primary energy related carbon intensity and measures the material production sectors final energy related carbon intensity our results show that the overwhelming contributor to the decline of energy related carbon intensity was the reduction in real energy intensity however policies that focus only on the decline in energy intensity are insufficient to further decrease carbon intensity the change of primary energy mix can improve the decline of carbon intensity this should focus on the material production sectors development strategies and final energy use greater emphasis should be given to secondary industry which needs national and regional governments policy support

manufacturing exports mining exports and growth cointegration and causality analysis for chile 1960 2001 this study examines the export led growth hypothesis using annual time series data from chile in a production function framework it addresses the problem of specification bias under which previous studies have suffered and focuses on the impact of manufactured and mining exports on productivity growth in order to investigate if and how manufactured and mining exports affect economic growth via increases in productivity the study uses johansen cointegration technique the estimation results can be interpreted as evidence of productivity enhancing effects of manufactured exports and of productivity limiting effects of mining exports

arms races and arms control modeling the hawk perspective of the three major theories developed by post world war 11 american social science to explain arms races the repeated prisoner s dilemma the spiral model and the deterrence model the deterrence model has received the least attention from game theorists i present a model of this perspective and discuss its implications for arms racing and armscontrol theory arms races arise in the model when there is a conflict of interest between two states and uncertainty about the ability of at least one side to bear the strains of increased military spending the model provides support for two common critiques of arms control first arms control is difficult to achieve when it is most needed when there is a dispute accompanied by uncertainty that could lead to war second arms races though they occur in times of tension do not necessarily increase the likelihood of war and may even reduce it by reducing uncertainty about relative power

measuring total factor co2 emission performance and technology gaps using a non radial directional distance function a modified approach implementing the common but differentiated responsibilities principle for co2 mitigation requires an understanding of co2 emission performance and technology gaps in different countries this paper uses a meta frontier and non radial directional distance function to propose an alternative three stage approach to measure total factor co2 emission performance and technology gaps the first stage calculates the co2 emission performance of the group frontier the second stage uses these results to calculate the technology gap ratio the third stage integrates data from the first two stages to calculate co2 emission performance under the meta frontier this approach is easier to apply than other approaches in the literature and effectively avoids the phenomenon of the technology gap ratio being greater than unity the proposed approach can also decompose co2 emission performance loss into two categories management inefficiency and technical gaps to demonstrate the method an empirical analysis using data for 54 countries was conducted the study highlighted three main findings first upper middle income countries did not perform as well as high income countries and lower middle income countries second high income countries generally enjoy optimized production technology whereas the lower middle income countries generally had the lowest technological levels third both management inefficiency and technical gaps negatively impacted co2 emission performance but management inefficiency played a dominant role

conflict war and redistribution this article analyzes the circumstances under which conflict leads to the outbreak of war using a formal model which incorporates both the redistribution of resources as an alternative to war and imperfect information countries act as rational agents concerned with both consumption and the public bad of a war in the first period both countries can either consume or build arms whereas in the second period there can be either the threat or the use of force to reallocate resources if both countries are fully informed then there will be no war but rather a voluntary redistribution of resources in a situation of asymmetric information however in which one country is fully informed and the other is not a war can occur if the uninformed country uses a separating equilibrium strategy precommitting itself to a positive probability of war in order to prevent bluffing by the informed country

export and production growth evidence from three major wheat exporters of australia canada and the united states this article investigates the robustness of the relationship between export and production growth for three major wheat exporters australia canada and the united states from 1966 to 2000 combining production international trade and development theories a four variable production exports producer price and imports vector autoregressive moving average varma model is developed for each country the causality results show that the hypothesis of export led development is supported by these three major players in the international wheat trade though a bi directional causality is found for canada and the usa variance decomposition and impulse response functions are employed to further investigate the effects of macroeconomic shocks

factor substitution and energy productivity fluctuation in china a parametric decomposition analysis abstract technical research on energy productivity can support government officials as they evaluate practical energy policies for the future this study proposed a parametric method to decompose china s energy productivity rate of change into six factors based on a theoretical stochastic frontier analysis the method was applied to conduct an empirical study using inter provincial panel data in china from 1995 to 2012 the results highlighted three key points first the general rate of change in energy productivity was mainly influenced by a steady positive rate of change in technical progress combined with a steady negative rate of change in technical efficiency the core factors causing fluctuations in energy productivity included a positive rate of change in the substitution of capital and energy and a negative rate of change in the substitution of labor and energy second from a geographic perspective provinces with a high rate of change in technical progress experienced a weaker deterioration in technical efficiency however the rate of change in technical efficiency tends to decline as the rate of change in technical progress increases third there is a similar changing trend between the substitution of capital and energy and the substitution of labor and energy

total factor carbon emission performance of fossil fuel power plants in china a metafrontier non radial malmquist index analysis article i nfo this paper proposes the metafrontier non radial malmquist co2 emission performance index mnmcpi for measuring dynamic changes in total factor co2 emission performance over time the mnmcpi method allows for the incorporation of group heterogeneity and non radial slack into the previously introduced malmquist co2 emission performance index mcpi we derive the mnmcpi by solving several non radial data envelop ment analysis dea models we decompose the mnmcpi into an efficiency change ec index a best practice gap change bpc index and a technology gap change tgc index and based on the proposed indices we examine the dynamic changes in co2 emission performance and its decomposition of fossil fuel power plants in china for the 2005 2010 period the empirical results show a 0 38 increase in total factor co2 emission performance as a whole and a u shaped mnmcpi curve for the sample period because companies owned by the central government lack innovation and technological leadership the results suggest a missing link in the role of the central government in promoting co2 emission performance

modeling the forms of international cooperation distribution versus information the problems of distribution and information impede international cooperation they arise when actors select how they will cooperate an exploration of the interaction between these problems using a limited information model of cooperation leads to six conclusions first leadership solutions to coordination problems always exist but leadership here is very different from hegemonic provision of public goods second actors can cooperate in the face of anarchy even without a shadow of the future third diffuse reciprocal strategies arise naturally in coordination problems fourth norms and institutions are intertwined within successful cooperation fifth the form of cooperation on an issue varies with the relative importance of distribution and information finally and most important distributional and informational problems interfere with each other arrangements to cooperate can successfully address one but not both of these problems

the inefficient use of power costly conflict with complete information recent work across a wide range of issues in political economy as well as in american comparative and international politics tries to explain the inefficient use of power revolutions civil wars high levels of public debt international conflict and costly policy insulation in terms of commitment problems this paper shows that a common mechanism is at work in a number of these diverse studies this common mechanism provides a more general formulation of a type of commitment problem that can arise in many different substantive settings the present analysis then formalizes this mechanism as an inefficiency condition that ensures that all of the equilibria of a stochastic game are inefficient this condition has a natural substantive interpretation large rapid changes in the actors relative power measured in terms of their minmax payoffs may cause inefficiency

causal relationship between exports and economic growth some empirical evidence in taiwan japan and the us causal relationships between exports and economic growth are tested for taiwan the us and japan the variables are stationarized the method of hsiao 1979 is employed in finding the direction of causation wald and likelihood ratio tests confirm that exports growth in the us and a feedback causal relationship exists in japan only terms of trade causes economic growth in japan

arms races and conflict experimental evidence we study escalation and aggression in an experimental first strike game in which two participants play multiple rounds of a money earning task in each round both players can spend money to accumulate weapons the player with more weapons can spend money to strike against the other player which almost totally eliminates the victim s earnings potential and removes their capacity to strike weapons can serve as a means of deterrence in four treatments we find that deterrence is strengthened if weapon stocking cannot be observed that a balance of power is effective in maintaining peace and that mutually beneficial trade decreases the risk of confrontation but not necessarily the likelihood of costly arms races