threshold effects in price transmission the case of brazilian wheat maize and soya prices recent studies into price transmission have recognized the important role played by transport and transaction costs threshold models are one approach to accommodate such costs we develop a generalized threshold error correction model to test for the presence and form of threshold behavior in price transmission that is symmetric around equilibrium we use monthly wheat maize and soya prices from the united states argentina and brazil to demonstrate this model classical estimation of these generalized models can present challenges but bayesian techniques avoid many of these problems evidence for thresholds is found in three of the five commodity price pairs investigated

efficiency and equalization payments in a federal system of government a synthesis and extensions of recent results this paper investigates the rationale for a system of equalization transfers in a federal system of government the existing sources of inefficiency of resource allocation in economies with more than one level of government are synthesized in the framework of a simple decentralized multiprovince model with mobile factors of production the sources of inefficiency arise first because migrants respond at the margin to incorrect signals owing to the phenomena of rent sharing and fiscal exterality and second because of global rather than local inefficiencies the model is then extended to consider the role of the federal government in providing intergovernmental transfers in the face of such inefficiencies in addition to synthesizing the sources of inefficiency in federal models the equity arguments for equalization are briefly recounted efficacite et paiements de perequation dans un systeme federal de gouvernement synthese et extensions de certains resultats recents ce memoire examine la logique qui soustend un systeme de paiements de perequation dans un systeme fdderal de gouverement les auteurs utilisent un modele simple d un systeme multi provincial decentralise avec des facteurs de production mobiles pour definir les sources d inefficacite dans l allocation des ressources dans les dconomies qui possedent plus d un niveau de gouvernement ces inefficacites proviennent de ce que d abord ceux qui se deplacent le font en reponse a la marge a des signaux incorrects engendres par le partage de la rente sur la base de la residence et par les phenomenes d exteralites fiscales elles sont aussi le resultat d inefficacites globales plutot que locales dans le cadre de ce modele les auteurs analysent le role du gouvernement federal effectuant des transferts inter gouverementaux pour corriger ces inefficacites en plus de presenter une synthese des sources d inefficacite dans les regimes federaux les auteurs font un bref rappel en passant a l ensemble des arguments fondes sur l equite qu on utilise pour rationaliser les paiements de perequation this paper is a linear combination of two papers presented at the may 1982 meetings of the canadian economics association in halifax entitled the case for equalization payments by the authors and recent developments in the theory of regional economic policy in canada by boadway the authors are grateful for comments by the discussants jim johnson and baxter macdonald and by jack mintz brian scarfe gerard belanger david sewell tom courchene and the referees we are especially heavily indebted to dan usher for many stimulating comments and suggestions while the work was in progress some of the above persons will undoubtedly disagree with the emphasis we have chosen to put on various aspects of the analysis for policy purposes support for some of this work has been provided by the economic council of canada and is gratefully acknowledged canadian journal of economics revue canadienne d economique xv no 4 november novembre 1982 printed in canada imprimd au canada 0008 4085 82 0000 0613 01 50 1982 canadian economics association this content downloaded from 207 46 13 127 on wed 12 oct 2016 04 27 47 utc all use subject to http about jstor org terms 614 robin boadway and frank flatters

the spatial time lag in panel data models abstract this paper proposes to include the spatial time lag in empirical applications using spatial panel data models and also explains why the coefficient of that term can be negative we provide simple theoretical frameworks to justify the relevance of the spatial time lag to empirical specifications which can be caused by either partial adjustments or inter temporal budget constraints monte carlo experiments suggest that omitting a relevant spatial time lag can result in significant biases in regression estimates while including an irrelevant spatial time lag causes no obvious loss of efficiency

bayesian estimation and selection of nonlinear vector error correction models the case of the sugar ethanol oil nexus in brazil nonlinear adjustment toward long run price equilibrium relationships in the sugar ethanol oil nexus in brazil is examined we develop generalized bivariate error correction models that allow for cointegration between sugar ethanol and oil prices where dynamic adjustments are potentially nonlinear functions of the disequilibrium errors a range of models are estimated using bayesian monte carlo markov chain algorithms and compared using bayesian model selection methods the results suggest that the long run drivers of brazilian sugar prices are oil prices and that there are nonlinearities in the adjustment processes of sugar and ethanol prices to oil price but linear adjustment between ethanol and sugar prices

measuring market integration in the presence of transaction costs a threshold vector error correction approach applied econometric analyses of market integration based on price data alone have been criticised because they neglect the role of transaction costs to meet this objection threshold vector error correction models are used threshold models can account for the effects of transaction costs in price transmission without directly relying upon information about these costs which are often unavailable it is argued that threshold models that are based on two thresholds provide results that are economically more intuitive than those obtained from one threshold models however to this point no adequate econometric test is available for threshold significance in a two threshold model such tests are only available for the one threshold model in this paper a restricted two threshold model is developed in which the significance of the thresholds can be tested this model is therefore amenable to economic interpretation and statistical inference the model is used to estimate market integration in the european pig market

determination of the international maize price what is the growing role of brazil and ukraine this paper examines the relationships among maize prices for four countries to determine if newly emerging exporters brazil and ukraine influence the international price of maize our work focuses on each market s participation in the price discovery process rather than trying to determine a price leader we find that the united states plays the largest role in price discovery followed by argentina brazil and ukraine we also search for export thresholds and find that ukraine s contribution to price discovery rises slightly when an export threshold of 2 3 million tons is reached no export thresholds were found for brazil export thresholds for argentina were found but only have a minor impact on price relationships we also found that price relationships vary considerably across seasons of the year

income redistribution in a common labor market when households are mobile among jurisdictions income redistribution by individual jurisdictions creates fiscal externalities a model of interjurisdictional migration is used to study the nature of this redistributive externality analysis of optimal redistribution and optimal corrective subsidies from higher level governments shows that benefit levels for the recipients of income transfers and tax rates on mobile taxpayers should be equalized across jurisdictions a system of jurisdictions with a common labor market can achieve welfare improvements through coordination of domestic redistributive policy or through the intervention of a higher level government copyright 1991 by american economic association

heterogeneous vertical tax externalities and macroeconomic effects of federal tax changes the role of fiscal advantage abstract how do state tax rates respond to federal tax shocks this paper presents a novel mechanism of heterogeneous vertical tax externalities across state levels of fiscal advantage showing that tax increases can be expansionary even without their reinvestment states rich in natural resources have a fiscal advantage in the inter state competition over production factors which allows them to respond better to increases in federal taxes and consequently attract capital from other parts of the nation we add heterogeneity in fiscal advantage levels to an otherwise standard model of vertical tax externalities and horizontal tax competition the model shows that irrespective of federal redistribution the contractionary effect of a federal tax increase can be overturned in fiscally advantaged states through an increase in their tax base using the case of the u s and narrative based measures of federal tax shocks a la romer and romer 2010 we provide empirical evidence for the various aspects of this mechanism specifically our baseline estimates indicate that controlling for federal transfers a 1 increase in the gdp share of capital related federal taxes at the beginning of a year increases the growth rate of the per capita tax base by approximately 0 7 in high fiscal advantage states at the end of it

incentive equivalence with fixed migration costs abstract if migration between communities is costless and if policy makers in each community anticipate the migration response to policy changes then the interests of the two communities are perfectly aligned decentralization is efficient this incentive equivalence is well known however the first order approach used in virtually all the literature may obscure the fact that no convexity assumptions need be made about technology or tastes this fact underscores the relevance of incentive equivalence even when there are scale economies in the public sector here the consequences of positive migration costs for this incentive equivalence are considered in contrast with much of the literature migration costs are assumed the same for everyone this formulation differs from the more common attachment to home assumption of heterogeneous migration costs conditional on the direction of migration interests of different communities are still perfectly aligned but natives of different communities may prefer different directions of migration weakening incentive equivalence if local policy makers have the power to induce large changes in migration flows however incentive equivalence fails only if economies of scale in population are important so that communities may be under populated

transboundary pollution and household mobility are they equivalent abstract recent research has shown that perfect household mobility can serve as a disciplinary mechanism inducing national policy makers to internalize interregional externalities caused by transboundary pollution this paper develops a differential game to illustrate that the result is not necessarily robust when migration costs and explicit dynamics are introduced the paper shows that if governments constantly reoptimize imperfect household mobility leads to a tragedy of the commons and individual countries overemit even when pollution is purely local moreover these dynamic externalities get worse as the degree of household mobility increases and there is a qualitative difference between almost perfect and perfect mobilty that is a discontinuity at zero migration costs

the commodity terms of trade unit roots and nonlinear alternatives a smooth transition approach market price dynamics for north american oriented strand board markets are examined specifically the role of transactions costs are examined vis a vis the law of one price weekly data for the january 3rd 1995 through april 14th 2006 period are used in the analysis nonlinearities induced by unobservable transactions costs are modeled by estimating smooth transition autoregressions stars results indicate that nonlinearity is an important feature of these markets and that the parity relationships implied by economic theory are generally supported by the star models implications for the efficiency of spatial market linkages are examined by estimating generalized impulse response functions

asymmetric competition among nation states a differential game approach abstract this paper analyzes the impact of foreign investments on a small country s economy in the context of international competition to that end we model tax and public input competition within a differential game framework between two unequally sized countries the model accounts for the widely recognized characteristic that small states are more flexible in their political decision making than larger countries however we also acknowledge that small size is associated with limited institutional capacity in the provision of public services the model shows that the long term outcome of international competition crucially depends on the degree of capital mobility in particular we show that flexibility mitigates against but does not eliminate the likelihood of collapse in a small economy finally we note that the beneficial effect of flexibility in a small state increases with its inefficiency in providing public services and with the degree of international openness

inter regional transfers and the induced under taxation of economic rents abstractinter regional transfers and the induced under taxation of economic rents regional studies this paper shows that if taxes on economic rent are assigned to anticipatory first moving regions and inter regional transfers are mandated centrally rents are under taxed relative to optimal levels this provides a possible explanation for low rent capture observed in australia and canada two resource rich federal economies that also have fiscal equalization transfers between regions

home field advantage location decisions of portuguese entrepreneurs an investor s home bias in industrial location decisions may stem from personal factors social capital other non transferable assets and imperfect information about the urban and regional environment this paper explores the distinction between home base and non home location decisions in portugal we reach two important conclusions first the introduction of a variable accounting for prior base of economic activity significantly improves the statistical results second we find that the weighting of distinct location attributes differs between home and non home locations notably non home location choices are strongly governed by agglomeration economies and proximity to major urban centers possibly replicating prior location decisions to economize on search costs the results also enable us to quantify the investor s willingness to opt for a possible home field advantage for example entrepreneurs accept over three times higher labor costs to compete in their resident area of business 2002 elsevier science usa all rights reserved

on the desirability of tax coordination when countries compete in taxes and infrastructure in our paper we demonstrate that when countries compete in taxes and infrastructure coordination through a uniform tax rate or a minimum rate does not necessarily create the welfare effects observed under pure tax competition the divergence is even worse when the competing jurisdictions differ in institutional quality if tax revenues are used to gauge the desirability of coordination our model demonstrates that imposing a uniform tax rate is pareto inferior to the non cooperative equilibrium when countries compete in taxes and infrastructure this result is completely reversed under pure tax competition if the countries are sufficiently similar in size if a minimum tax rate is set within the range of those resulting from the non cooperative equilibrium the low tax country will never be better off finally the paper demonstrates that the potential social welfare gains from tax harmonization crucially depend on the degree of heterogeneity among the competing countries

spatial equilibrium and price transmission between southern african maize markets connected by informal trade policies regulating the international grain trade in southern africa sa are motivated by uncertainty regarding private sector performance and in turn private sector performance is generally constrained by the policy environment we study spatial price transmission between sa maize markets where trade is dominated by informal product flows this provides an opportunity to study private sector market performance in a largely unregulated market environment contrary to some existing evidence on the performance of sa grain markets connected by formal trade we find that informally trading markets work quite well long run price equilibrium is consistent with competitive trade price transmission is rapid and potential trade constraints have no disruptive impact on long run relationships nevertheless we do find evidence of occasionally high transfer costs that may impede informal trade flows the conclusion is that a policy focus on encouraging informal trade and lowering informal trade costs would lead to improved market performance

comparing capital mobility across provincial and national borders the persistence of high savings investment correlations and home country bias in portfolio construction at the national level is contrasted with new evidence on savings behaviour in canadian provinces we confirm that national borders clearly divert flows of capital to domestic investments but provincial borders have no such effect in particular while there is a significant correlation between national savings and investment among provinces that effect disappears we discuss the implications for interpreting the distinction

redistribution within and across the regions of a federation the authors reconsider the literature on redistribution within a federation with mobile agents they conclude that redistribution is a function best assigned to the national government local governments with diverse preferences for redistribution distort individual migration decisions the authors also examine the fiscal externality literature which has made an efficiency argument for interregional transfers they show that if local governments have the same preferences for redistribution the nash equilibrium is efficient if preferences are diverse the authors show that nationally imposed interregional transfers do not address the source of the inefficiency nevertheless interregional transfers are shown to be a part of decentralized behavior

optimality free mobility and the regional authority in a federation abstract this paper examines the efficiency properties of a federation characterized by strategically competing regions and freely mobile homogeneous individuals analyses of this economy have concluded that achieving a pareto optimal will require intervention by a national authority this paper makes one basic point the nash equilibrium of regional authority behavior is pareto optimal the implication is that there is no role for a national authority in either providing interregional transfers or correcting for decentralized provision of public goods the nash equilibrium involves samuelson public goods provision and regions purchasing preferred population distributions with optimal interregional transfers

a threshold error correction model for intraday futures and index returns index futures arbitragers only enter into the market if the deviation from the arbitrage relation is sufficiently large to compensate for transaction costs and associated interest rate and dividend risks we estimate the band around the theoretical futures price within which arbitrage is not profitable for most arbitragers using a threshold autoregression model combining these thresholds with an error correction model we show that the impact of the mispricing error is increasing with the magnitude of that error and that the information effect of lagged futures returns on index returns is significantly larger when the mispricing error is negative 1998 john wiley sons ltd

an extension of the home attachment criteria under dynamic tax competition in this short note we extend the home attachment setting of mansoorian and myers 1993 and ogura 2006 to allow the study of tax competition in a dynamic framework when international business relocation occurs over successive periods the dynamic framework we propose also helps to understand why tax rates may change over time our modified home attachment rule is illustrated by a simple model of dynamic tax competition in discrete time

taxation and the tiebout model the differential effects of head taxes taxes on land rents and property taxes on the theory of state and local public finance is the seminal paper by charles tiebout 1956 tiebout constructed a multijurisdictional model in which independent local governments offer a wide variety of expenditure and tax policies and perfectly mobile consumers reveal their preferences for local public goods through their choice of residential community he argued that under such circumstances local public service provision would be efficient the tiebout model has formed the basis of a vast number of subsequent articles in the state and local public finance literature and has also been very influential in urban and regional economics the efficiency properties of various tiebout type models of local public good provision have been examined and the role of politics in these models has been debated at length in this literature of more direct relevance to this paper however is the fact that although tiebout had little to say directly about taxation simply assuming the existence of head taxes subsequent analyses have used adaptations of this model to examine the effects of local head taxes land taxes and property taxes it is the literature on the efficiency and distributional effects of alternative local taxes that is the subject of this survey 1

economic integration and fiscal devolution abstract in this paper we investigate how economic integration influences the political decision of integration and separation of jurisdictions in a model with imperfect capital mobility we consider that not only the redistributive policy itself but also the level of policy centralization is decided by a majority vote we find that the net benefit from integration is not monotonic with the level of world capital market integration and present a case where integration of two regions occurs only for intermediate levels of mobility this conclusion relies on the comparison of the regional majorities utility under the various regimes the benefits from integration arise from the elimination of tax competition across jurisdictions which allows for more income redistribution whereas the costs are linked to the diversity of preferences across regions namely that of the decisive voters we also show that a federal regime is better than complete centralization in keeping a nation united

the politics of 1992 fiscal policy and european integration the internal market in europe will greatly increase the international mobility of resources how will this affect fiscal policy in different countries we consider taxation of capital in a two country model where a democratically chosen government in each country chooses tax policy higher capital mobility changes the politico economic equilibrium in two ways on the one hand it leads to more tax competition between the countries this economic effect tends to lower tax rates in both countries on the other hand it alters voters preferences and makes them elect a different government this political effect offsets the increased tax competition although not completely

the political economy of regional integration projects at borders where poor and rich meet the role of cross border shopping and community sorting abstract at borders between poor and rich countries huge service price differentials could be exploited to mutual benefit offering better paid job opportunities to the poor as well as better shopping opportunities to the rich however cross border shopping is often limited by the substantial transaction costs of crossing the border moreover countries and regions frequently fail to cut these transaction costs even when they have the opportunity to do so we provide a politico economic analysis of cross border integration projects more specifically we show how the political outcome depends on i intra country mobility ii decision making and housing ownership regimes and iii federal grants and international border regulations our analysis builds on two key characteristics in which individuals differ interregional mobility and intercultural ability

space matters understanding the real effects of macroeconomic variations in cross country housing price movements changes in macroeconomic conditions can significantly determine directions and magnitudes of cross country housing price movements we demonstrate that such effects are consistently over estimated when spatial frictions are merely assumed but are not explicitly modeled in the empirical framework the extent of over estimation bias has significant policy implications

a variable threshold band approach to measuring market linkages uncertain and changing economic conditions can have substantial effects on price relationships in spatially separated linked markets although numerous studies have analysed price relationships to characterize market linkage structures most assume that the relationships and associated linkages are time invariant this study extends the literature by modelling and estimating time dependent market linkages that are conditional on changes in exogenous factors the methodology is used to investigate price relationships in north carolina nc corn and soya bean markets empirical results indicate that generalized market linkage models provide a better representation of price relationships over time improving the understanding of price discovery dynamics and marketing strategies

nonlinear adjustments in deviations from the law of one price for wholesale hog prices this article applies the band threshold autoregression band tar model to investigate whether the law of one price loop holds in taiwanese wholesale hog markets during the period from may 1987 through december 2003 we find evidence of a nonlinear mean reversion in deviations from the loop for relative hog prices our empirical study confirms the presence of thresholds and provides strong evidence in support of the view that the regional hog markets have been tightly integrated in taiwan and that the wholesale hog market in taiwan is an efficient market economy furthermore the estimated half lives from the nonlinear generalized impulse response analysis are as short as four months

housing cycles and macroeconomic fluctuations a global perspective abstract this paper investigates the international spillovers of housing demand shocks on real economic activity the global economy is modeled using a global var with a novel house price data set for both advanced and emerging economies the impulse responses to an identified u s housing demand shock confirm the existence of strong international spillovers to advanced economies in contrast the response of some major emerging economies is not significantly different from zero moreover the analysis of synchronized housing demand shocks speaks in favor of the recent evidence of increased resilience of emerging economies to shocks originating in advanced economies and it also suggests that a close monitoring of housing cycles in advanced economies as well as in emerging economies should be of interest for policy makers

does size asymmetry exacerbate the inefficiency of tax competition many authors demonstrate that the tax gap resulting from tax competition increases with the size asymmetry of the competing countries consequently increasing country size disparities exacerbates the inefficiency of tax competition the aim of this note is to show that this classical view has no general validity if we consider that countries compete not only in taxes but also in the provision of infrastructure the simple model we develop for this purpose demonstrates that the effect of size disparity on efficiency depends crucially on the degree of international capital mobility

time varying threshold cointegration and the law of one price a theoretical model of the law of one price which allows for seasonality in transaction costs and supply and demand conditions between markets is developed bivariate three regime threshold vector error correction models are applied to natural gas markets to examine seasonality in threshold levels results indicate that there are nonlinear adjustments to the law of one price in seven pair wise markets chicago is used as the base market in the natural gas sector dynamic threshold effects relative to the chicago market vary depending on season geographical location and whether the market is an excess producing or consuming market

the estimation of threshold models in price transmission analysis the threshold vector error correction model is a popular tool for the analysis of spatial price transmission and market integration in the literature the profile likelihood estimator is the preferred choice for estimating this model yet in certain settings this estimator performs poorly in particular if the true thresholds are such that one or more regimes contain only a small number of observations if unknown model parameters are numerous or if parameters differ little between regimes the profile likelihood estimator displays large bias and variance such settings are likely when studying price transmission for simpler but related threshold models greb et al 2011 have developed an alternative estimator the regularized bayesian estimator which does not exhibit these weaknesses we explore the properties of this estimator for threshold vector error correction models simulation results show that it outperforms the profile likelihood estimator especially in situations in which the profile likelihood estimator fails two empirical applications a reassessment of the the seminal paper by goodwin and piggott 2001 and an analysis of price transmission between german and spanish markets for pork demonstrate the relevance of the new approach for spatial price transmission analysis

migration with fiscal externalities abstract this paper analyses the distribution of a country s population among regions when migration involves fiscal externalities the main question addressed is whether a decentralized decision making of regional governments can produce an optimal population distribution as recently asserted or a centralized intervention is indispensable as argued before in the literature in analysing this issue it is assumed that migration is costly and accordingly the problem is modelled in a dynamic setup it turns out that while with costless mobility the fiscal externality is fully internalized by voluntary interregional transfers with costly mobility centrally coordinated transfers still remain indispensable for achieving the socially optimal allocation

north american oriented strand board markets arbitrage activity and market price dynamics a smooth transition approach price dynamics for north american oriented strand board osb markets are examined the role of transactions costs are explored vis a vis the law of one price weekly data february 3rd 1995 through october 9th 2009 are used in the analysis nonlinearities induced by unobservable transactions costs are modeled by estimating time varying smooth transition autoregressions tv stars results indicate that nonlinearity and structural change are important features of these markets price parity relationships implied by economic theory are generally supported by the estimated models implications for the efficiency of spatial market linkages and the dynamics associated with price adjustments are also examined

the dynamic relationship between the prices of adrs and their underlying stocks evidence from the threshold vector error correction model this paper sets out to estimate the dynamic relationship that exists between the prices of adrs and their underlying stocks in both the short run and the long run using a number of recent developments of the threshold cointegration framework the empirical results support the notion of nonlinear mean reversion of the prices of adrs and their underlying stocks

modelling trends in food market integration method and an application to tanzanian maize markets abstract pushed by increasing availability of price data and extensive market liberalisation efforts in many developing countries research on food market integration has evolved rapidly over the last two decades empirical methods to measure market integration diverged in two directions on the one hand there is the parity bounds model pbm using a switching regressions technique while on the other hand the use of threshold autoregressive tar models has been proposed this article provides a discussion on the two methods and argues that tar models are better able to capture the dynamics of the arbitrage process underlying interconnected markets furthermore we extend the standard tar model to include a time trend in both the threshold and the adjustment parameter using weekly maize price data on seven selected markets in tanzania we illustrate how both transaction cost and the speed of adjustment have changed during the nineties

tax competition with imperfectly mobile capital abstract this paper considers interjurisdictional tax competition in a two period model with imperfectly mobile capital in the first period capital is perfectly mobile in the second period however capital cannot move perfectly because of transactions costs once employed in a jurisdiction in the first period this imperfect mobility of capital may lead to the overprovision rather than the underprovision of public goods in the second period and may make jurisdictions compete more aggressively for capital in the first period

local impacts of a global crisis food price transmission consumer welfare and poverty in ghana abstract this paper takes a local perspective on global food price shocks by analyzing food price transmission between regional markets in ghana it also assesses the impacts of food price increases on various household groups taking the 2007 2008 global food crisis as an example we show that prices for domestic grain products are highly correlated with world market prices this is true both for products for which ghana is highly import dependent e g rice and the products for which ghana is self sufficient e g maize the econometric results also show that price transmission is high between regional producer markets and markets located in the country s largest cities and the distance between producer and consumer markets and the size of consumer markets matter in explaining the price transmission the welfare analysis for households as consumers shows that the effect of world food prices appears relatively modest for the country as a whole due to relatively diverse consumption patterns within country however the national average hides important regional differences both between regions and within different income groups we find that the poorest of the poor particularly those living in the urban areas are hardest hit by high food prices the negative effect of the food crisis is particularly strong in northern ghana the main explanations for this regional variation in the price effect is the different consumption patterns and much lower per capita income levels in the north of ghana compared to other regions in the country

attachment to home and efficient purchases of population in a fiscal externality economy abstract this paper examines the efficiency properties of an economy characterized by strategically competing regions and individuals with varying degrees of attachment to home in an otherwise standard fiscal externality setting regional authorities may make interregional transfers in purchasing preferred populations however there is a range of distributions of resources over which neither region makes transfers nevertheless all equilibrium allocations resulting from the nash behavior of regional authorities including those that involve no transfers are efficient therefore in contrast to the standard conclusions of the fiscal externality literature there is no efficiency role for a central authority

does total factor productivity drive housing prices a growth accounting exercise for four countries abstract housing prices diverge from construction prices after 1997 in four major countries besides total factor productivity tfp differences between construction and the general economy account for the evolution of construction prices in the us and germany but not in the uk and spain

spatial market integration in the presence of threshold effects a large body of research has evaluated price linkages in spatially separate markets much recent research has applied models appropriate for nonstationary data such analyses have been criticized for their ignorance of transactions costs which may inhibit price adjustments and thus affect tests of integration this analysis utilizes threshold autoregression and cointegration models to account for a neutral band representing transactions costs we evaluate daily price linkages among four corn and four soybean markets in north carolina nonlinear impulse response functions are used to investigate dynamic patterns of adjustments to shocks our results confirm the presence of thresholds and indicate strong support for market integration though adjustments following shocks may take many days to be complete in every case the threshold models suggest much faster adjustments in response to deviations from equilibrium than is the case when threshold behavior is ignored a large amount of empirical research has evaluated the extent to which spatially separate markets are integrated though the term is used loosely in the literature tests of market integration usually consider the extent to which shocks are transmitted among spatially separate markets the integration of markets can have important implications for price discovery and the operation of the market since persistent deviations from integration may imply riskless profit opportunities for spatial traders

why is capital so immobile internationally possible explanations and implications for capital income taxation the evidence on international capital immobility is extensive including the lack of international portfolio diversification real interest differentials across countries and the high correlation between domestic savings and investment the authors develop a model with asymmetric information between countries that helps rationalize all the above observations and then examine the implications of this model for optimal domestic tax policy without asymmetric information past work showed that small open economies should not impose corporate income taxes with asymmetric information the optimal policy instead involves government subsidies to capital imports some omitted factors that argue against subsidizing capital imports are explored briefly copyright 1996 by american economic association

transboundary environmental problems with mobile but heterogeneous populations most of the literature on transboundaryenvironmental problems treats population ineach country or region as constant ignoringpopulation mobility we showed previously thatif there is perfect population mobility betweenregions and populations are homogeneous asocially efficient outcome can be supported asa nash equilibrium of the game of uncoordinatedpolicy setting even without any internationalenvironmental agreement in the present paperwe introduce heterogeneous population and showthat when people differ a non cooperativeoutcome is generally inefficient we alsodemonstrate that for a particular set ofobjective functions for the regionalgovernments there is an equilibrium of thegame of uncoordinated policy setting that isefficient finally we give an example wherethe decentralized outcome is efficient whenthere is no population mobility butinefficient when there is population mobility

a note on tax competition attachment to home and underprovision of public goods abstract this paper analyzes efficiency in the provision of public goods when there is tax competition but investors have attachment to home i e a biased preference for investing in the region where they live investors are assumed to be heterogeneous in the costs to invest outside the home region as a result in comparison with the no attachment case the capital outflow response to an increase in the tax rate is reduced because only investors facing small mobility costs will move capital out in a symmetric equilibrium tax rates are increased and the extent of the underprovision of public goods caused by tax competition is lessened

federal tax policies congressional voting and natural resources can abundance of natural resources affect legislators voting behavior over federal tax policies we construct a political economy model of a federalized economy with district heterogeneity in natural resource abundance the model shows that representatives of natural resource rich districts are more less willing to vote in favor of federal tax increases decreases this occurs because resource rich districts are less responsive to federal tax changes due to the immobile nature of their natural resources we test the model s predictions using data on roll call votes in the u s house of representatives over the major federal tax bills initiated during the period of 1945 2003 in conjunction with the presence of active giant oil fields in u s congressional districts our identification strategy rests on plausibly exogenous giant oil field discoveries and exploitation and narrative based aggregate federal tax shocks that are exogenous to individual congressional districts and legislators we find that i resource rich congressional districts are less responsive to changes in federal taxes ii representatives of resource rich congressional districts are more less supportive of federal tax increases decreases controlling for legislator congressional district and state indicators our results indicate that resource richness is approximately half as dominant as the main determinant namely party afiliation in driving legislators voting behavior over federal tax policies

housing is local applying a dynamic unobserved factor model for the dutch housing market abstract we employ the multi factor extension of the otrok and whiteman 1998 single dynamic unobserved factor model in order to investigate regional dutch house price fluctuations for the years 1995 2012 this paper is mainly concerned with two questions first is the dutch housing market localized second to which factors can we trace back this localization we find that the dutch housing market is highly localized although there is an important common housing cycle explaining house price comovement across all regions idiosyncratic factors play the most important role although notably group specific factors separating randstad of non randstad regions are only of minor importance nevertheless they can explain region specific housing supply shocks this latter finding can be partly traced back towards an agglomeration effect for randstad regions

spatial market arbitrage and threshold cointegration goodwin and piggott reported that corn and soybean prices in spatially separated markets in north carolina exhibited threshold cointegration and that commodity prices in different markets may persistently diverge here a multivariate approach is used to test for threshold cointegration and nonlinear cointegration the results suggest that departures from the law of one price do not persist indefinitely goodwin and piggott gp examined daily corn and soybean prices across spatially separated markets in north carolina and reported that bivariate pairings of prices were threshold cointegrated gp used a twothreshold model in which price differences across markets could persist indefinitely they concluded that empirical models should consider threshold effects in order to adequately characterize spatially integrated markets the purpose of this article is to extend the gp analysis in several directions gp employed the techniques of martens kofman and vorst which involve a multistepped search for thresholds in the residuals of a cointegrating regression this single equation search process is subject to potential misspecification so it is interesting to determine whether the direct multivariate test of threshold cointegration of hansen and seo provides confirmatory evidence in addition gp allowed two thresholds to affect each commodity pair without directly testing for the number of thresholds the second extension uses hansen tests to determine the number of thresholds two thresholds imply no arbitrage bounds that allow persistent departures from the law of one price one threshold is consistent with the traditional view that price differentials are fleeting as arbitrageurs drive excess returns to zero the final extension recognizes that spatially integrated markets might follow a nonlinear relationship that depends on transactions costs peter s sephton is professor school of business queen s university kingston ontario canada the author would like to thank nick piggott for providing his dataset and the dean s research fund in the school of business for financial assistance two anonymous referees provided helpful comments sufficiently large deviations from the law of one price should lead to a reduced price dispersion a direct test of nonlinear cointegration demonstrates that price differences tend to be resolved over time background