finance and growth in a bank based economy is it quantity or quality that matters abstract most finance growth studies approximate the size of financial systems rather than the quality of intermediation to explain economic growth differentials furthermore the neglect of systematic differences in cross country studies could drive the result that finance matters we suggest a measure of bank s intermediation quality using bank specific efficiency estimates and focus on the regions of one economy only germany this quality measure has a significantly positive effect on growth this result is robust to the exclusion of banks operating in multiple regions controlling for the proximity of financial markets when distinguishing different banking sectors active in germany and when excluding the structurally weaker east from the sample

project based mechanisms for emissions reductions balancing trade offs with baselines project based mechanisms for emissions reductions credits like the clean development mechanism pose important challenges for policy design because of several inherent characteristics participation is voluntary so it will not occur without sufficient credits evaluating reductions requires assigning an emissions baseline for a counterfactual that cannot be measured some investments have both economic and environmental benefits and might occur anyway uncertainty surrounds both emissions and investment returns and parties to the project are likely to have more information than the certifying authority the certifying agent is limited in its ability to design a contract that would reveal investment intentions as a result rules for benchmarking emissions may be systematically biased to overallocate and they also risk creating inefficient investment incentives this paper evaluates in a situation with asymmetric information the efficacy of the main baseline rules currently under consideration historical emissions an average industry emissions standard and expected emissions

the impact of climate targets on future steel production an analysis based on a global energy system model this paper addresses how a global climate target may influence iron and steel production technology deployment and scrap use a global energy system model etsap tiam was used and a scrap availability assessment model saam was developed to analyse the relation between steel demand recycling and the availability of scrap and their implications for steel production technology choices steel production using recycled materials has a continuous growth and is likely to be a major route for steel production in the long run however as the global average of in use steel stock increases up to the current average stock of the industrialised economies global steel demand keeps growing and stagnates only after 2050 due to high steel demand levels and scarcity of scrap more than 50 of the steel production in 2050 will still have to come from virgin materials hydrogen based steel production could become a major technology option for production from virgin materials particularly in a scenario where carbon capture and storage ccs is not available imposing a binding climate target will shift the crude steel price to approximately 500 usd per tonne in the year 2050 provided that ccs is available however the increased prices are induced by co2 prices rather than inflated production costs it is concluded that a global climate target is not likely to influence the use of scrap whereas it shall have an impact on the price of scrap finally the results indicate that energy efficiency improvements of current processes will only be sufficient to meet the climate target in combination with ccs new innovative techniques with lower climate impact will be vital for mitigating climate change

financial intermediation and endogenous growth an endogenous growth model with multiple assets is developed agents who face random future liquidity needs accumulate capital and a liquid but unproductive asset the effects of introducing financial intermediation into this environment are considered conditions are provided under which the introduction of intermediaries shifts the composition of savings toward capital causing intermediation to be growth promoting in addition intermediaries generally reduce socially unnecessary capital liquidation again tending to promote growth

stock markets and development this paper asks if financial development especially stock market development affects the level and or the growth rate of economic activity it finds a substantial effect on both current wisdom suggests that the growth effects of financial intermediation could be either permanent or transitory for instance the greenwood jovanovic 1990 henceforth gj model has an ak stucture with no diminishing returns to the reproducible factor and a permanent exogenous improvement in financial structure would cause a permanent increase in the rate of growth on the other hand if the returns to the reproducible factor did diminish better intermediation could lead only to level effects since one should not a priori exclude either growth effects or level effects we shall look for both our search for growth effects will use the gj model our search for level effects will rely on an amended version of the mankiw romer and weil 1992 henceforth mrw structure

endogenous growth and the emergence of equity finance abstract this paper characterises the development of equity markets as a dynamic process that both influences and is influenced by the development of the real sector of the economy in overlapping generations economy borrowers seek funds to run risky investment projects by drawing up contracts which may take the form of either equity or debt issue in the presence of information asymmetry between borrowers and lenders the optimal contract is determined by trading off information dilution costs against bankruptcy costs significantly the equilibrium choice of contract depends on the state of the economy which in turn depends on the contracting regime based on this analysis the paper provides a theory of the joint determination of real and financial development with the ability to explain the emergence of a stock market along the path of real development

on welfare frameworks and catastrophic climate risks recent theoretical work in the economics of climate change has suggested that climate policy is highly sensitive to fat tailed risks of catastrophic outcomes weitzman 2009 68 such risks are suggested to be an inevitable consequence of scientific uncertainty about the effects of increased greenhouse gas concentrations on climate criticisms of this controversial result fall into three categories the first suggests that it may be irrelevant to cost benefit analysis of climate policy the second challenges the fat tails assumption and the third questions the behavior of the utility function assumed in the result this paper analyses these critiques and suggests that those in the first two categories have formal validity but that they apply only to the restricted setup of the original result which may be extended to address their concerns they are thus ultimately unconvincing critiques in the third category are shown to be robust however they open up new ethical and empirical challenges for climate economics that have thus far been neglected how should we value catastrophes as a society i demonstrate that applying results from social choice to this problem can lead to counterintuitive results in which society values catastrophes as infinitely bad even though each individual s utility function is bounded finally i suggest that the welfare functions traditionally used in climate economics are ill equipped to deal with climate catastrophes in which population size changes drawing on recent work in population ethics i propose an alternative welfare framework with normatively desirable properties which has the effect of dampening the contribution of catastrophes to welfare

financial intermediation as a beliefs bridge between optimists and pessimists this paper proposes a new framework for understandingnancial intermediation in contrast to previous research we consider a setting in which intermediaries possess no inherent information processing or monitoring advantages instead in an economy with overly optimistic entrepreneurs who require funding from overly skeptical pessimistic investors we show that intermediaries can arise endogenously in such a setting only a rational intermediary will be su ciently optimistic tond it worthwhile to invest in a technology for screening entrepreneurs projects and yet be pessimistic enough to use this technology our framework produces implications consistent with heretofore unexplained stylized facts and a number of others which are as of yet untested

the role of uncertainty and learning for the success of international climate agreements abstract transnational externalities e g transboundary pollution trade contagious diseases and terrorism warrant coordination and cooperation between governments but this proves often difficult one reason for the meager success is the public good character of many of these economic problems encouraging free riding another reason one might suspect is uncertainty surrounding most environmental problems and in particular climate change this provides often an excuse for remaining inactive paradoxically some recent papers have concluded just the opposite the veil of uncertainty can be conducive to the success of international environmental cooperation in this paper we explain why and under which conditions this can be true however we argue that those conditions are the exception rather than the rule most important we suggest a mechanism for those conditions where learning has a negative effect on the success of cooperation which removes this effect or even turns it into a positive effect our results apply beyond the specifics of climate change to similar problems where cooperation generates positive externalities

how good are standard debt contracts stochastic versus nonstochastic monitoring in a costly state verification environment the authors investigate ex ante efficient contracts in an environment in which implementation is costless in this environment standard debt contracts will typically not be optimal optimal contracts may involve defaults even in states in which the borrower is fully able to repay the authors then examine the welfare costs of arbitrarily restricting the set of feasible contracts to standard debt contracts when model parameters are calibrated to realistic values the welfare loss from exogenously imposing this restriction is extremely small thus if implementation costs are actually nontrivial as seems likely standard debt contracts will be very close to optimal copyright 1994 by university of chicago press

costly monitoring financial intermediation and equilibrium credit rationing abstract this paper establishes a link between equilibrium credit rationing and financial intermediation in a model with asymmetrically informed lenders and borrowers costly monitoring and investment project indivisibilities intermediation is shown to dominate borrowing and lending between individuals and these financial intermediaries exhibit several of the important features of intermediaries as we know them equilibrium interest rates and the aggregate quantity of loans respond quite differently to changes in taste and technology parameters depending on whether or not there is rationing in equilibrium

stock and credit market expansion and economic development in emerging markets further evidence utilizing cointegration analysis this paper empirically investigates the relationship between equity and credit market development and economic growth in a sample of five very important emerging markets in particular employing a multivariate time series methodology to test for long run trends and causality between variables that proxy for stock market development credit market development and economic development the results seem to suggest that equity markets have a role to play only in relatively liberalized economies like chile and mexico in financially repressed economies like india the equity market does not affect real sector growth furthermore the banking crises in the 1980s and 1990s in chile and mexico resulted in a negative relation between economic growth and the credit market in south korea equity and credit markets both affect economic growth but not vice versa in countries where the nature of the stock market has been speculative like taiwan a negative relationship is detected between equity market develo

what determines un approval of greenhouse gas emission reduction projects in developing countries an analysis of decision making on the cdm executive board the clean development mechanism cdm established by the kyoto protocol can generate substantial rents for project participants via the sale of certified emission reductions for this reason supposedly technical decisions about the approval of cdm methodologies and about the registration of projects may be driven by benefits to specific countries or interest groups our econometric analysis of data for about 250 methodologies and about 1000 projects discussed by the cdm executive board eb so far suggests that indeed along with formal quality criteria political economic variables determine the final eb decision

the coevolution of the real and financial sectors in the growth process the role of debt and equity changes over time and with the level of development what are these changes and why should they systematically occur across different countries and time periods this article characterizes financial innovation as a dynamic process that both influences and is influenced by the development of the real sector it focuses on the emergence and development of equity markets using a model that allows for growth and for capital accumulation that is financed externally through a combination of debt and equity as an economy develops the aggregate ratio of debt to equity will generally fall yet debt and equity remain complementary sources for the financing of capital investments the results suggest how various government policy actions might affect capital accumulation and equity market activity

from institutions to financial development and growth what are the links this paper presents an integrated overview of the literature linking institutions financial development and economic growth from the large body of research on institutional development the paper first selects those contributions that make it possible to study the role of institutional arrangements in ameliorating worsening the information frictions and transaction costs that characterize the development of financial markets the paper then investigates the theoretical mechanisms by which these specific frictions affect economic growth and presents the stock of empirical evidence quantifying the impact of institutions on growth through financial development

does willingness to pay increase with the number and strictness of sustainability labels labels signaling sustainable product attributes are gaining importance although uncertainty concerning the environmental micro and macroeconomic benefits of such labels persist one of the questions still incompletely answered is whether willingness to pay wtp varies with a gradually increasing number of labels on a food product in order to answer this question we conducted a laboratory experiment with 191 student respondents testing consumer valuations of different labeling strategies using the becker degroot marschak mechanism wtp for 15 food products was measured the products were endowed with up to six different sustainability labels such that each grocery item was available in eight product versions for perishable nonperishable and plant based products the results indicate that participants are prone to allocating wtp premiums to labeled products more than to unlabeled products for animal products however labels do not influence wtp significantly furthermore the premiums do not vary with an increasing number of labels irrespective of whether the labels signal substitute or complementary sustainability information the results are not entirely in line with normative notions of magnitude variation but rather with the behavioral economic concept of embedding effects

financial development and economic growth the role of stock markets utilizing time series methods and data from five developed economies we examine the relationship between stock market development and economic growth controlling for the effects of the banking system and stock market volatility our results support the view that although both banks and stock markets may be able to promote economic growth the erects of the former are more powerful they also suggest that the contribution of stock markets on economic growth may have been exaggerated by studies that utilize cross country growth regressions

designing climate mitigation policy this us paper provides an exhaustive review of critical issues in the design of climate mitigation policy by pulling together key findings and controversies from diverse literatures on mitigation costs damage valuation policy instrument choice technological innovation and international climate policy the authors begin with the broadest issue of how high assessments suggest the near and medium term price on greenhouse gases would need to be both under cost effective stabilization of global climate and under net benefit maximization or pigouvian emissions pricing the remainder of the paper focuses on the appropriate scope of regulation issues in policy instrument choice complementary technology policy and international policy architectures

international coordination on climate policies given the current trend in global emissions the latest round of climate change negotiations at the durban meeting of december 2011 for the adoption of a comprehensive global treaty on climate change mitigation as soon as possible and no later than 2015 and to come into force in 2020 has hardly shown the results one would have hoped for even for the most optimistic it remains unclear whether one can expect a successful negotiating outcome by 2015 there are inherent difficulties associated with climate change negotiations ranging from which countries should bear most responsibility for a given emission reduction target to the assessment of a globally efficient time path for pricing harmful greenhouse gas emissions ghgs these difficulties become even more complex and challenging under the pervasive uncertainty of climate science and the uncertainty about the feedback loop between climate change damages and economic growth during the past decades the environmental economics literature has provided important insights regarding the design of environmental fiscal policies and treaties but there is a host of issues that remain relatively unexplored for instance we know little about the cooperative solution for carbon and trade policies when climate change affects the productive possibilities of countries in this context it is also not obvious whether observed policies could be improved upon in such a way that all countries gain in welfare it remains also unclear what the carbon extraction path should be in the absence of a comprehensive treaty such as for example if environmental policy is unilaterally chosen subject to an agreed ceiling in global temperature though carbon pricing instruments like carbon taxes cap and trade and hybrids have been well studied not much is known about their properties in the presence of offset schemes such as the clean development mechanism more work is also required to understand the strategic implications of the uncertainty surrounding climate change and how this affects for example the choice of climate change strategy precautionary or wait and see how uncertainty impacts the propensity of countries to sign a climate treaty and the extent to which the possibility of a climate catastrophe fosters or hinders cooperation understanding political economy issues is also vital in tackling climate change because efficient climate policies stand little chance of being successfully negotiated and implemented if they do not receive the support of the electorate the papers in the special issue of the journal of environmental economics and management are precisely devoted to this broad research agenda

financial intermediation and delegated monitoring this paper develops a theory of financial intermediation based on minimizing the cost of monitoring information which is useful for resolving incentive problems between borrowers and lenders it presents a characterization of the costs of providing incentives for delegated monitoring by a financial intermediary diversification within an intermediary serves to reduce these costs even in a risk neutral economy the paper presents some more general analysis of the effect of diversification on resolving incentive problems in the environment assumed in the model debt contracts with costly bankruptcy are shown to be optimal the analysis has implications for the portfolio structure and capital structure of intermediaries

uncertainty learning and heterogeneity in international environmental agreements this paper concerns the formation of international environmental agreements under uncertainty about environmental damage with different models of learning complete learning partial learning or no learning the results of the existing literature are generally pessimistic the possibility of either complete or partial learning generally reduces the level of global welfare that can be achieved from forming an iea relative to no learning that literature regards uncertainty as a parameter common to all countries so that countries are identical ex ante as well as ex post in this paper we extend the literature to the case where there is no correlation between damage costs across countries each country is uncertain about a particular parameter in our case the benefit cost ratio drawn from a common distribution but ex post each country s realized parameter value is independently drawn consequently while countries remain identical ex ante they may be heterogeneous ex post we show that this change reinforces the negative conclusions about the effects of partial learning on international environmental agreements but under certain conditions moderates the negative conclusions about the effects of complete learning

financial development growth and the distribution of income a paradigm is presented in which both the extent of financial intermediation and the rate of economic growth are endogenously determined financial intermediation promotes growth because it allows a higher rate of return to be earned on capital and growth in turn provides the means to implement costly financial structures thus financial intermediation and economic growth are inextricably linked in accord with the goldsmith mckinnon shaw view on economic development the model also generates a development cycle reminiscent of the kuznet hypothesis in particular in the transition from a primitive slow growing economy to a developed fast growing one a nation passes through a stage in which the distribution of wealth across the rich and poor widens

stock markets corporate finance and economic growth an overview the research presented here focuses on four issues first it constructs more measures or criteria of stock market development than any previous study it compares liquidity concentration volatility institutional development and international integration across forty four industrial and developing countries from 1976 to 1993 besides identifying general characteristics of these measures and defining stock market development empirically these data facilitate further research into the relationship between stock market development and financial intermediaries corporate finance decisions and economic growth these measures ranked for each country can be used for inter country comparisons of the level of stock market development in addition the data provide a basis for gauging the success of capital market development projects using objective criteria second with these new data the research investigates the relationships between stock markets and financial intermediaries third the research analyzes the relationship between stock market development and long run economic growth fourth the research studies the ties between stock market development and financing choices of firms this overview puts this research in context and reviews the main results of the study section i provides a brief review of the role of stock markets in economic development and documents the evolution of debt and equity markets during the growth process section ii defines stock market development and presents summary data on the development of financial intermediaries and stock markets section iii presents evidence on the effect of stock market development on economic growth section iv summarizes the empirical results on how stock market development affects firm financing decisions section v concludes by discussing policy implications

estimates of the costs of kyoto marrakesh versus the mckibbin wilcoxen blueprint in this paper we update our earlier estimates of the cost of the kyoto protocol using the g cubed model taking into account the new sink allowances from recent negotiations as well as allowing for multiple gases and new land clearing estimates we then compare the protocol to an alternative policy outlined in mckibbin et al brookings policy brief no 17 june the brookings institution washington 1997 climate change policy after kyoto a blueprint for a realistic approach the brookings institution washington 2002a j econom perspect 16 2 2002b 107 that does not impose rigid emissions targets we focus particular attention on the sensitivity of compliance costs under each policy to unexpected changes in future economic conditions to illustrate the issue we evaluate the policies under two plausible alternative assumptions about a single aspect of the future world economy the rate of productivity growth in russia we find that moderate growth in russia would raise the cost of the kyoto protocol by as much as 50 percent but would have little effect on the cost of the alternative policy we conclude that the kyoto protocol is inherently unstable because unexpected future events could raise compliance costs substantially and place enormous pressure on governments to abrogate the agreement the alternative policy would be far more stable because it does not subject future governments to adverse shocks in compliance costs

climate and international trade policies when emissions affect production possibilities abstract in this paper we develop a model of international trade and climate change in which emission discharges arising from production have a feedback effect on national production sectors by impacting upon effective factor endowments with this context the objectives are first to provide a general characterization of pareto efficient climate and trade policies and second to examine the possibility starting from non pareto efficient equilibria for pareto improving environmental policies we provide conditions under which several particular reforms of carbon taxes are welfare improving

strategic climate policy with offsets and incomplete abatement carbon taxes versus cap and trade abstract this paper provides a first analysis of a policy bloc of fossil fuel importers which implements an optimal climate policy faces a non policy fringe of other fuel importers and an exporter bloc and purchases offset from the fringe we compare a carbon tax and a cap and trade scheme for the policy bloc in either case accompanied by an efficient offset mechanism for reducing emissions in the fringe the policy bloc is shown to prefer a tax over a cap since only a tax reduces the fuel export price and by more when the policy bloc is larger offsets are also more favorable to the policy bloc under a tax than under a cap the optimal offset price under a carbon tax is below the tax rate while under a cap and free quota trading the offset price must equal the quota price the domestic carbon and offset prices are both higher under a tax than under a cap when the policy bloc is small when the policy bloc is larger the offset price can be higher under a cap fringe countries gain by mitigation in the policy bloc more under a carbon tax since the fuel import price is lower

transactions costs technological choice and endogenous growth abstract hicks a theory of economic history clarendon press oxford 1969 argues that an important aspect of industrial development is the adoption of technologies requiring highly illiquid capital investments the adoption of such technologies becomes economically viable in the presence of low cost financial markets that provide liquidity to investors this observation provides a mechanism by which the costs of transacting in financial markets affect the equilibrium choice of technology productive efficiency and by implication growth we analyze how the costs of financial market transactions affect the set of technologies in use and the equilibrium growth rate transactions cost reductions may depending on the capital structure enhance or reduce growth journal of economic literature classification numbers d90 e13 g14

long run implications of investment specific technological change an attempt is made to disentangle its effects from the more traditional hicksneutral form of technological progress the balanced growth path for the model is characterized and calibrated to u s national income and product account nipa data the quantitative analysis suggests that investment specific technological change accounts for the major part of growth jel e13 030 041 047

joint implementation strategic reactions and possible remedies this paper investigates the promising proposal of joint implementation ji to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions this was ultimately the only concrete outcome of the conference on climate change in berlin albeit restricted to a pilot phase the basic idea given the public s awareness of global warming sounds economically plausible the industrialized countries the only ones required to stabilize and lower carbon emissions can search for cheaper reductions of greenhouse gas emissions in developing countries and economies in transition however this proposal leads to strategic reactions by developing countries reinforced by the fact that this cheating coincides with the interest of the industrialized country in short this proposal will lead to cheating given asymmetric information and will thus produce largely faked reductions in emissions on the constructive side an efficient mechanism retaining the spirit of ji is derived which deters strategic reactions this differs from a usual principal agent problem through an additional hierarchical layer a global authority e g the conference of parties on climate change an industrialized country and a developing country the unavoidable loss that is even associated with an optimal scheme due to strategic behavioural reality the first best optimum is unattainable except at the top leads of course to much less glamorous predictions in emission reductions moreover the implicit subsidization scheme focuses and favours on already efficient partners

a hotelling model with a ceiling on the stock of pollution abstract environmental agreements such as the kyoto protocol aim to stabilize the amount of carbon in the atmosphere which is mainly caused by the burning of nonrenewable resources such as coal we characterize the solution to the textbook hotelling model when there is a ceiling on the stock of emissions we consider both increasing and decreasing demand for energy we show that when the ceiling is binding both the low cost nonrenewable resource and the high cost renewable resource may be used jointly a key implication is that if energy demand were to decline in the long run we may supplement energy supply through clean renewables to meet the environmental standard but then revert back to using only dirty fossil fuels in the future when the ceiling has become non binding that is the much heralded societal transition to clean energy resources may be short lived

green lobbies and transboundary pollution in large open economies abstract we employ a common agency model of policy making to examine how green lobbies affect the determination of trade and environmental policies in two large countries that are linked by trade flows and transboundary pollution we show that the impact of green lobbying on environmental policy outcomes depends crucially on the prevailing trade regime cooperative or non cooperative on whether environmental agencies act in a unilateral or coordinated manner and on the size of the emission leakages and transboundary spillovers under free trade a unilateral increase in pollution taxes reduces domestic emissions at the cost of increased foreign emissions in this case if the emission leakages and the associated transboundary spillovers are large enough green lobbying can create a bias towards lower pollution taxes

on modeling and interpreting the economics of catastrophic climate change with climate change as prototype example this paper analyzes the implications of structural uncertainty for the economics of low probability high impact catastrophes even when updated by bayesian learning uncertain structural parameters induce a critical tail fattening of posterior predictive distributions such fattened tails have strong im plications for situations like climate change where a catastrophe is theoretically possible because prior knowledge cannot place sufficiently narrow bounds on overall damages this paper shows that the economic consequences of fat tailed structural uncertainty along with unsureness about high temperature damages can readily outweigh the effects of discounting in climate change policy analysis