china s oil use 1990 2008 abstract over the past two decades china s oil demand has risen steeply in 1990 it was only about 25 higher than that of 1978 the year economic reform was introduced by 2008 it had reached 396 0 million tons roughly four times the 1978 level making china the second largest oil user worldwide the country became a net oil importer in 1993 and between 1993 and 2008 its net import dependency a yardstick for energy security soared from 7 5 to 50 0 china s increased demand for oil has made the country a global energy player of critical importance although the literature on the global implications of china s oil use has proliferated relatively few studies have attempted to examine how china uses oil hence this study covers every oil consuming facility and sector in china exploring the patterns of and factors involved in oil demand by power plants oil refineries heat plants and gas works and industrial transport agricultural household and commercial sectors it concludes that in virtually all sectors in china oil demand will grow with transport and industry leading the way

exploring the core factors and its dynamic effects on oil price an application on path analysis and bvar tvp model abstract as the uncertainty of oil price increases impacts of the influential factors on oil price vary over time it is of great importance to explore the core factors and its time varying influence on oil price in view of this based on the path analysis model this paper obtains the core factors builds an oil price system var model which uses demand supply price and inventory as endogenous variables and china s net imports as well as dollar index as exogenous variables then we set up a bvar tvp time varying parameter model to analyze dynamic impacts of core factors on oil price the results show that 1 oil prices became more sensitive to oil supply changes and the influence delays became shorter 2 the impact of oil inventories on oil prices with a time lag of two quarters but has a downward trend 3 the impact of oil consumption on oil prices with a time lag of two quarters and this effect is increasingly greater 4 the us dollar index is always the important factor of oil price and its control power increases gradually and the financial crisis occurred in 2008 further strengthens the influence of us dollar

the emergence of rural transport strategies in response to rising fuel costs abstract rising and sometimes volatile fuel prices pose a challenge for rural organizations reliant on long distance transport to understand the coping mechanisms used by such organizations we survey rural business strategies in israel where fuel prices are high and urban development is concentrated in the country s geographic center the businesses surveyed are operated by kibbutzim historically collective communities that are now in various stages of privatization analysis of the transport strategies employed by nearly 100 organizations in three regions of varying remoteness and isolation shows that firms rely on distinct strategies such as localization and high value density localization was found to be prevalent in all regions as it requires little capital investment strategies exploiting high value density including information based services were prevalent in remote and isolated regions where sensitivity to transport costs is acute non remote firms were less inclined toward strategic adaptation preferring non disruptive changes such as cheaper shipping modes the development implications of these transport strategies are consistent with rural economic trends observed throughout the developed world if transport costs continue to rise rural firms may shrink the radius of their sales and labor pools or search for more lucrative products to reduce their relative transport costs

child labor and schooling responses to anticipated income in south africa abstract forward looking unconstrained households make child labor and schooling decisions considering their permanent income and weighing the relative returns to child time in various potential activities the timing of anticipated changes in income should have no effect on child labor and schooling in a setting where households can borrow against permanent income however this study documents large increases in schooling attendance and declines in total hours worked when black south african families become eligible for fully anticipatable social pension income as an explanation the data are most consistent with liquidity constraints for black elder males forcing rural families into less schooling for boys than they would choose absent the constraint perhaps because of schooling costs

some notes on the misuse of classic writings in economics on the subject of common property abstract this paper aims to show how many economists have misunderstood the issues and language concerning the commons first they confuse the noun common property with the process of free and unregulated access second they explain the disappearance of common property resources as an unavoidable consequence of individual economic rationality this process supposedly is based on adam smith s use of selfishness but clearly is a misinterpretation of his basic writings ironically smith s writings which in toto advocate great legal political and moral restraint in economic action are most commonly used to advance opposite ends given that planet earth may be considered a common property the clarification and proper use of common property issues is of the utmost importance

passenger transport modal split based on budgets and implication for energy consumption approach and application in china transport will be the strongest growing energy demand sector in the future especially in developing countries like china and it needs more attention the evolution of transport structure is very important in the dynamic of transport development and therefore worth emphasis in this study a modal split model maximizing spatial welfare and constrained by travel money budget and time budget is developed this approach differs from the general econometric based approach used in most existing macro transport studies and deals with the cost and speed of transport modes as important variables explicitly the model is then applied to china s transport sector together with sensitivity test despite many data problems the decomposition of energy consumption generated from bottom up model based on this modal split identified the importance of modal split and turnover expansion in the next 30 years which should be a stronger area of focus in transportation studies

haddad lawrence john hoddinott and harold alderman eds intrahousehold resource allocation in developing countries models methods and policy baltimore md johns hopkins university press 1997 384 pp 55 00 in this volume economists demographers sociologists and anthropologists collaborate in the study of how resources are allocated within households in developing countries and why it matters from a policy perspective surveying a broad range of theory and evidence the contributors examine the many social and cultural factors that influence decisions about the family and household level about the allocation of time income assets and other resources ths contributors show that a more complete understanding of intrahousehold behaviour can increase the likelihood that policies will reach the people they are intended to affect

does china factor matter an econometric analysis of international crude oil prices abstract whether china s crude oil imports are the culprit of oil price volatility these years has not been quantitatively confirmed therefore this paper empirically investigates the role of china s crude oil net imports in brent price changes from october 2005 to november 2013 based on an econometric analysis the results indicate that during the sample period china s crude oil imports do not significantly affect brent price changes no matter in the long run or short run therefore the blame for china s crude oil imports to cause the dramatic fluctuations of international oil price has no solid evidence also there exists significant uni directional causality running from the brent price to china s crude oil imports at the 5 level besides the response of the brent price to china s crude oil imports is found positive but slight and the brent price responds more significantly to us dollar exchange rate and oecd commercial inventory than to china s crude oil imports in the short run finally the contribution of china s crude oil imports to brent price movement is about 10 which is less than that of us dollar exchange rate but larger than that of indian crude oil imports or oecd commercial inventory

crop choice school participation and child labor in developing countries cotton expansion in burkina faso we estimate the effects of changes in cotton adoption on children s schooling and child labor in rural burkina faso using time and spatial variations we find evidence that expansion of cotton farming has led to an increase in enrollment and to a reduction of participation in child labor for girls there are however no detectable effects on boys in theory cotton adoption could increase household income leading to increased demand for schooling and reduced child labor on the other hand because children are productive on cotton farms adoption of cotton could increase the opportunity cost of child time and the demand for child labor we provide suggestive evidence showing that boys are more productive than girls on cotton farms taken together the results suggest that the income effect from cotton adoption might have been larger than the wage effect for girls hence the overall positive impacts on school enrollment for girls

strategic oil stockpiling for energy security the case of china and india abstract compared with the developed countries the developing countries could be more vulnerable to oil supply disruptions due to their lack of strategic petroleum reserves sprs several developing countries including china and india are establishing their sprs to ensure energy security in the common world oil market one country s spr decisions can be affected by the decisions of other countries this paper investigates the spr policies of china and india two of the largest developing countries in a game theoretic framework where the interactions between the two countries are taken into account the results show that players equilibrium stockpiling strategies and total expected costs could vary significantly with the initial oil market state stockpile acquisition capacity and the probabilities for disruptions to persist

low schooling for girls slower growth for all cross country evidence on the effect of gender inequality in education on economic development using cross country and panel regressions this article investigates how gender inequality in education affects long term economic growth such inequality is found to have an effect on economic growth that is robust to changes in specifications and controls for potential endogeneities the results suggest that gender inequality in education directly affects economic growth by lowering the average level of human capital in addition growth is indirectly affected through the impact of gender inequality on investment and population growth some 0 4 0 9 percentage points of differences in annual per capita growth rates between east asia and sub saharan africa south asia and the middle east can be accounted for by differences in gender gaps in education between these regions

energy policies for managing china s carbon emission abstract the well documented close relationship between economic growth and energy use indicates that the emergence of a country as an economic power cannot occur without increased in energy use but just as the scale of china s rise as an economic power has no clear parallel in history its conflict between economic growth and energy use has also shattered all precedents this planet s future energy scenario hinges on the ability of this decoupling the question this policy forum addressed is how to find the optimum way to accomplish this decoupling through government directive government centered command and control approaches or cac or market forces market based instruments or mbi it concludes that market rather than government can decide the optimum way to decouple china s economic growth from energy use facilitating this decoupling driven by market force requires getting the prices right for energy

determinants of china s energy imports an empirical analysis sustained economic growth in china has triggered a surge of energy imports especially oil imports this paper investigates the determinants of china s energy import demand by using cointegraiton and vecm techniques the findings suggest that in the long run growth of industrial production and expansion of transport sectors affect china s oil imports while domestic energy output has a substitution effect thus as the chinese economy industrializes and the automotive sector expands china s oil imports are likely to increase though china s domestic oil production has a substitution effect on imports its growth is limited due to scarce domestic reserve and high exploration costs it is anticipated that china will be more dependent on overseas oil supply regardless of the world oil price

do emerging markets matter in the world oil pricing system evidence of imported crude by china and india abstract this paper provides empirical evidence on the changing structure of world oil price system by identifying an additional driver emerging market factor we choose china and india as a representative of emerging markets to examine if the quantity of crude oil imported by china and india is significant in the existing oil pricing system kaufmann et al 2004 our data starts from january 2002 and ends in march 2010 which includes the oil shock of 2007 2008 we utilize cointegration and error correction model framework developed by engle granger 1987 and gregory hansen 1996 in the analysis our results indicate that demand from emerging markets has become a significant factor in the world oil pricing system since 2003 this result is significant as it lends empirical support to the widely held conjecture that the oil shock of 2007 2008 is a demand led shock hamilton 2009 our result also has significant policy implications that go beyond the oil shock the emerging market factor is there to stay and reflects the changing power between emerging and developed economies in the world economic system as a result of decades of fast economic development in the former it will certainly influence policy issues related to oil and beyond

china on the move oil price explosion abstract rapid expansion of highway and jet traffic in china has created a surge of demand for oil products putting pressure on world energy markets and petroleum product prices this paper examines trends in freight and passenger traffic to assess how growth in china s transport demand relates to growth in china s economy as well as the energy intensity of transport based on assumptions about demand elasticity and energy intensity a range of scenarios is developed for china s oil demand through 2020 incremental oil demand from china s transport sector is then compared with world oil demand projections to assess the likely impact on world oil prices the finding is that new demand from china s transport sector would likely raise world oil prices in 2020 by 1 3 in reference scenarios or by 3 10 if oil supply investment is constrained

human capital investment and the gender division of labor in a brawn based economy we use a model of human capital investment and activity choice to explain facts describing gender differentials in the levels and returns to human capital investments these include the higher return to and level of schooling the small effect of healthiness on wages and the large effect of healthiness on schooling for females relative to males the model incorporates gender differences in the level and responsiveness of brawn to nutrition in a roy economy setting in which activities reward skill and brawn differentially empirical evidence from rural bangladesh provides support for the model and the importance of the distribution of brawn

the management of common property resources collective action as an alternative to privatisation or state regulation can locally based collective action be a viable way to manage common property resources many writers on collective action and common property are sweepingly pessimistic about the ability of the people who face problems of common property to organize sustainable patterns of use for themselves this paper shows with reference to prisoners dilemma garett hardin s tragedy of the commons and mancur olson s logic of collective action that the analytical basis for this pessimism is weak in many situations of village based common property resource use there can thus be no general presumption that the collective action route to common property resource management will fail any more than there can be a general presumption that it will work the paper suggests a number of general factors to do with the characteristics of the resources the user group and group state relations on which chances of success depend

challenges for economic policy in sustainable management of marine natural resources the sustainable management of marine natural resources presents particular challenges to the managers of those resources while such management has typically been based on biological considerations it is argued that this has resulted in overexploitation and destruction of important marine assets in industries such as fishing and tourism consequently it is concluded that other approaches are needed with the use of economic concepts and management tools particularly relevant at the same time the human welfare outcomes of the application of various policy instruments must be carefully considered while biological information is critical to the formulation and implementation of successful management regimes it is concluded that the application of economic instruments will become more attractive to resource managers with these instruments underpinned by consideration of property rights and an appropriate allocation of economic rents a greater focus on these economic matters will take resource managers further in the direction of sustainable management of increasingly scarce marine resources the conclusions in the paper are supported by various case studies from fisheries and tourism 2001 elsevier science b v all rights reserved

the burkinabe cotton story 1992 2007 sustainable success or sub saharan mirage summary like many other african countries in the early 1990s burkina faso was urged to engage in a far reaching liberalization of its state led cotton sector instead it engaged in more gradual and sequenced reforms characterized by institutional innovations and partial privatization but while the reforms coincided with a threefold increase in cotton exports in the space of a decade there is heated debate about whether the reforms truly induced sustainable growth in addition to reviewing existing evidence this paper develops a counterfactual analysis to more rigorously assess the reform s impacts after accounting for the confounding influence of exogenous shocks and centrally administered farmgate prices the paper shows that while many elements of the reform process did achieve important economic objectives return migration from cote d ivoire explains around a third of production growth financial elements of the reforms were not fully sustainable and institutional arrangements failed to fully empower cotton farmers

oil development in china current status and future trends the future of oil has become an important topic of the discussion of energy policy in china this paper attempts to present a full picture of the current status and future trends of china s oil development through system analysis first we map a sankey diagram of china s oil flow to reveal the physical pattern of china s oil supply and consumption then we present the historical and ongoing trends of china s oil flow from key aspects such as oil demand oil resource availability technology improvement and policy adjustment based on these understandings we design three scenarios of china s oil demand in 2030 and analyze policy implications for oil saving automotive energy development and energy security from the analysis we draw some conclusions for policy decisions such as to control the total oil consumption to avoid energy security risks to enhance oil saving in all sectors with road transportation as the emphasis and to increase the investment on oil production and refining to secure oil supply and reduce emissions

shocks effects of macroeconomic variables on natural gas consumption in nigeria structural var with sign restrictions abstract this paper has examined the transmission of shocks from macroeconomic variables namely money supply inflation exchange rate and real gdp onto natural gas consumption using structural var svar model with sign restrictions the results revealed that both in the short run and long run natural gas consumption responds significantly to the shocks emanating from money supply and real gdp while its response to inflation shock is significant only in the short run but exchange rate shock is not significant however money supply has contributed greater proportion of the shocks followed by the real gdp inflation and exchange rate in the ordering of the variance decomposition the paper recommends that nigerian authorities adjust the monetary policy tools towards regulating the money supply and checking the inflation rate to ensure increased demand for natural gas and sustained economic growth on the response of natural gas consumption to the shock in the exchange rate since the shock is positive though insignificant it implies that depreciation of the exchange rate can discourage the demand for foreign exchange imports and boost the local production which would reciprocally lead to more natural gas consumption and improved growth in the country

cropping pattern mechanization child labor and fertility behavior in a farming economy rural egypt tractor and the use of mechanical irrigation is increasing in the countryside the significant policy issue is the role of government in encouraging or discouraging continued labor saving mechanization present policy substantially encourages mechanization diesel oil is available at prices considerably lower than those in many other countries village banks provide farmers with equipment loans at rates below commercial levels machinery is imported at favorable foreign exchange rates and is exempted from import duties the most telling impact of these policies has been on the rapidly growing use of tractors and irrigation pumps both of which are believed to displace labor especially that of children this article addresses the question of whether such changes have indeed had the desired effect on child employment and family size recent developments in the egyptian agricultural sector also reveal significant changes in crop patterns these favor fruit and vegeta

market opportunities genetic endowments and intrafamily resource distribution child survival in rural india the authors examine how intrafamily resource allocations respond to changes in economic conditions and to genetic differences in children by estimating the determinants of variations in the sex specific survival differentials of rural indian children based on standard census and household survey data they explore in particular the hypothesis that such differences are related to the relative returns to survival with households selectively allocating resources to children in response to variation in sex differences in their expected earnings opportunities as adults data are from the 1961 census and a 1971 household survey excerpt