bounded price variation and rational expectations in endogenous switching model of the u s corn market a model that includes bounded price variation and rational expectations by producers is estimated for the u s corn market the resulting model specification is highly nonlinear though since the probability of market equilibrium must be determined endogenously unlike previous research the cross equation restrictions implied by the rational expectations hypothesis are incorporated in the bounded prices model by using fair and taylor s 1983 procedure for obtaining maximum likelihood estimates of nonlinear rational expectations models the resulting model is compared against a standard equilibrium model with naive expectations the results show the bounded prices model is a superior specification copyright 1989 by mit press

the strategic implications of scale in choice based conjoint analysis choice based conjoint cbc studies have begun to rely on simulators to forecast equilibrium prices for pricing strategic product positioning and patent copyright valuations whereas cbc research

competitive pricing by a price leader we examine the problem of pricing in a market where one brand acts as a price leader we develop a procedure to estimate a leader s price rule which is optimal given a sales target objective and allows for the inclusion of demand forecasts we illustrate our estimation procedure by calibrating this optimal price rule for both the leader and the follower using data on past sales and prices from the mid size sedan segment of the u s automobile market our results suggest that a leader follower system stackelberg seems more consistent with the pricing behavior in this market than a mutually independent pricing rule nash we also find that our optimal price rule explains this market data better than other pricing schemes that do not account for optimizing behavior on the part of the leader and the follower

chapter 4 competitive marketing strategies game theoretic models publisher summary this chapter reviews the key developments in the understanding of competitive marketing strategies product price advertising and distribution competition are all addressed while the emphasis is on models the chapter surveys the empirical literature as well there is a significant amount of empirical work to report but the ratio of theoretical to empirical work is nevertheless unpleasantly large much progress has been made in the last ten years or so in the study of competitive marketing strategies most of this chapter has been theoretical using simple models of firm and consumer behavior these models serve the function of demonstrating rigorously the existence of certain effects factors which need to be considered in analyzing real world competition

a case for comparative entrepreneurship assessing the relevance of culture as international entrepreneurship gains momentum as a significant and relevant field of research scholars need to address methodological issues that can facilitate the triangulation of research results in this paper we examine the relationship between culture and four personality characteristics commonly associated with entrepreneurial motivation by demonstrating systematic variation in entrepreneurial characteristics across cultures we raise important questions about the boundaries of international entrepreneurship research and the challenges of transcending them

macroeconomic linkages taxes and subsidies in the u s agricultural sector lj ar division of agricultural sciences unlversily of califorj ha ma croecono nc linkages t xes and subsidies in tiie u s agr cuttural secl or by gordon c rausser james a chalfant h alan love and kostas g stamoulis tt r i f r in i jq lifor ia agricultura experiment station clmoation of j gricultural economics january 1986

looking for evidence of speculative stockholding in commodity markets abstract the theory of commodity price with speculative storage predicts that prices are a two regime process depending on whether or not inventories are held the price process is nonlinear in that it is nondifferentiable at some p which separates the data into a history independent regime and an autoregressive process this paper looks for evidence of nonlinearity in the price data and tests the theory in the context of threshold autoregressive models under the assumption that shocks to harvest are i i d while we find evidence for regime specific behavior we also find the degree of persistence in the stockout regime to be much stronger than that predicted by theory

the structure of equilibria in market share attraction models a market share attraction model of competitive effort allocation by two firms is formulated as a constant sum two person game the dependence of optimal competitive effort allocations on factors such as gross profit margins relative effectiveness of effort and attraction elasticity of effort is studied two versions of the model are developed in the first version effort budgets of both competitors are exogenously fixed in the second the competitors each choose both budget levels and allocations in each version of the model an important function of the parameters called the competitive advantage ratio indicates when it is optimal to either increase or decrease effort allocated in a market in response to changes in various measures of effectiveness implications of differences in the cost associated with each competitor s budget on equilibrium allocations are derived

estimation of dynamic nonlinear rational expectations models of primary commodity markets with stochastic dynamic programming and disequilibrium maximum likelihood methods are combined to estimate a dynamic nonlinear rational expectations model of a market for a storable primary commodity the estimation model captures the inherently nonlinear structure of private stockholding dynamics the disequilibrium effects of government buffer stock intervention and the impact of price expectations and risk on private supply and stockholding decisions copyright 1993 by mit press

alternative models of spatial competition the concept of a spatial price equilibrium underlies most studies of spatial movement and competition however this concept is based upon a notion of perfectly competitive markets that is often unrealistic for many markets such as the markets for oil and coal and ignores the existence of local spatial monopolies this paper presents alternative economic models of spatial competition and shows how all of these models can be solved with essentially the same solution algorithm specifically after reformulating the classical spatial price equilibrium model and two extensions of takayama and judge s monopoly model we state and analyze a cournot nash model and discuss solution algorithms we then generalize these models and algorithms to multiple commodities and networks with transshipment nodes we conclude with a brief discussion of possible extensions of this class of models and associated algorithms

returns to individual traders of futures aggregate results by means of a data set previously unavailable for academic research actual trading histories of individual futures traders are examined with this more detailed data the author is able to 1 test the risk return hypothesis directly 2 include a much larger segment of the market than before and 3 use actual instead of hypothetical t rading strategies it is shown that the commercial hedging traders are most profitable while noncommercial speculative traders earn n egative or zero profits because speculators are not receiving reward s for the risks they willingly absorb the theory of normal backwarda tion and its extension can be rejected copyright 1987 by university of chicago press

bivariate garch estimation of the optimal commodity futures hedge six different commodities are examined using daily data over two futures contract periods cash and futures prices for all six commodities are found to be well described as martingales with near integrated garch innovations bivariate garch models of cash and futures prices are estimated for the same six commodities the optimal hedge ratio ohr is then calculated as a ratio of the conditional covariance between cash and futures to the conditional variance of futures the estimated ohrs reveal that the standard assumption of a time invariant ohr is inappropriate for each commodity the estimated ohr path appears non stationary which has important implications for hedging strategies

profit maximizing perceptual positions an integrated theory for the selection of product features and price an important component of marketing strategy is to position a product in perceptual space but to realize a perceptual position we must model the link from physical characteristics to perceptual dimensions and we must use this model to maximize profit this paper integrates psychological theories on how consumers process information with economic models and psychometric measurement and it develops a theory for selecting physical features and price to achieve a profit maximizing perceptual position the theory begins with a lancaster like transformation from goods space to characteristics space and investigates the implications of a mapping to a third space perceptual space we show that all products efficient in perceptual space must be efficient in characteristics space but not conversely but consumers vary in their preference and the way they perceive products thus we introduce distributional components to the theory and derive both geometric and analytic methods to incorporate this consumer heterogeneity next we investigate costs and derive a perceptual expansion path along which a profit maximizing position must exist conjoint analysis and quantal choice models provide the measurements to implement the theory the theory is illustrated with a hypothetical example from the analgesics market and some of the potential psychometric measurements are illustrated with an empirical application in the communications market

the choice theory approach to market research this paper surveys economic choice theory stressing developments that permit use of data from psychometric and conjoint experiments to produce market demand forecasts alternatives to the widely used multinomial logit model are summarized and a new method for estimating multinomial probits is described an integration of choice models with attitudinal scaling and perceptual mapping within a latent variable system is described estimation of such systems under either random effects or fixed effects descriptions of heterogeneity across individuals is discussed issues in the use of choice models to describe responses from conjoint experiments are presented new regression diagnostic tests for the consistency of multinomial logit representations are discussed

defensive marketing strategies this paper analyzes how a firm should adjust its marketing expenditures and its price to defend its position in an existing market from attack by a competitive new product our focus is to provide usable managerial recommendations on the strategy of response in particular we show that if products can be represented by their position in a multiattribute space consumers are heterogeneous and maximize utility and awareness advertising and distribution can be summarized by response functions then for the profit maximizing firm it is optimal to decrease awareness advertising it is optimal to decrease the distribution budget unless the new product can be kept out of the market a price increase may be optimal and even under the optimal strategy profits decrease as a result of the competitive new product furthermore if the consumer tastes are uniformly distributed across the spectrum a price decrease increases defensive profits it is optimal at the margin to improve product quality in the direction of the defending product s strength and it is optimal at the margin to reposition by advertising in the same direction in addition we provide practical procedures to estimate 1 the distribution of consumer tastes and 2 the position of the new product in perceptual space from sales data and knowledge of the percent of consumers who are aware of the new product and find it available competitive diagnostics such as the angle of attack are introduced to help the defending manager this article was originally published in marketing science volume 2 issue 4 pages 319 360 in 1983

sequential product positioning under differential costs this paper examines the product positioning decisions of firms that enter a market sequentially and that have potentially different cost structures it shows that if the first mover knows the second mover to have a lower production cost it positions away from the most attractive location in the market further the larger the second mover s cost advantage the farther away the first mover positions from the most attractive location the paper also models uncertainty in the first mover s mind about the later entrant s cost structure and shows that an increase in this uncertainty in the sense of mean preserving spread also makes the first mover position farther from the most attractive location in the market overall this paper suggests that unless the first entrant in a market is certain that the later entrant will not have a superior cost structure it may be better off leaving the best position in the market vacant and having a niche or fringe product

commodity storage and the market effects of biofuel policies the author 2016 legislation passed in 2007 by the u s congress increased by about 1 3 billion bushels the net amount of corn required to be processed annually into ethanol for motor fuel use we estimate that corn prices were about 30 higher from 2006 to 2014 than they would have been without this demand increase we develop a partially identified structural vector autoregression model our identification strategy is unique in the literature because it enables us to estimate the effects of transitory shocks such as weather separately from the effects of persistent shocks such as the increased ethanol mandate moreover by only partially identifying our model we show how to generate robust conclusions without strong identifying assumptions

consistent estimation of general equilibrium welfare effects a general equilibrium demand curve is appropriate for measuring the surplus changes in several markets induced by a policy intervention in one market guidelines for the identification and consistent estimation of such a demand curve are discussed specifically conditions are stated under which the dropping of prices of related goods yields a consistent estimate of the slope of the general equilibrium demand curve also a method similar to leamer s is proposed to provide consistent bounds for the general equilibrium demand slope when the slope is underidentified

an equilibrium analysis of defensive response to entry using a coupled response function model we determine the optimal response to competitive entry in a market characterized by a market share attraction model the response of an incumbent is limited to changes in prices advertising and distribution expenditures brand positions are assumed to be fixed we also assume that the entrant s position is chosen exogenously and that the sales potential of the market is constant after proving the existence of a unique nash equilibrium we show that the optimal response depends on the relative market share of the incumbents the response by nondominant brands with market shares less than 50 mirrors the prediction by decoupled response function models reduce price advertising and distribution spending for the dominant brand having a market share of 50 the response is to reduce price and increase marketing spending this finding explains previous empirical results that could not be addressed by the decoupled models

using usda forecasts to estimate the price flexibility of demand for agricultural commodities we estimate the general equilibrium price flexibility of demand for corn and soybeans using monthly changes in expected supply published by the usda our estimates reflect the demand response to a one year supply shock and thus correspond to the inverse demand elasticity we derive the conditions under which our estimates are consistent and we show how demand flexibility varies by season inventory time horizon and demand composition at average inventory and without accounting for corn ethanol use we obtain price flexibility estimates of 1 35 and 1 03 for corn and soybeans respectively current corn ethanol production levels are associated with much larger absolute flexibilities for both commodities copyright 2012 oxford university press

the effects of commodity price stabilization programs in this paper the authors analyze the effects of commodity programs in which the government attempts to support and stabilize price through open market purchases and sales specifically they as sess the effects of such programs on the u s soybean market using a rational expectations model that allows for private storage expected price responsive production and arbitrary support and release price s a salient feature of the model is that private storage and product ion behavior adjusts to changes in government policy stochastic simu lations of the market model demonstrate that price stabilization prog rams can reduce long run market price and destabilize producer revenu e copyright 1988 by american economic association

brand positioning under lexicographic choice rules this paper discusses a brand positioning model in which two brands of a product are to be positioned in a price quality space under a new behavioral assumption this assumption asserts that customers determine the highest quality product within their reservation price and purchase it provided its quality does not fall short of a minimum standard the model also includes producers costs that are incurred for delivering a certain quality we first delineate reaction functions for the optimal location of one brand give a location of its competitor we then show that nash equilibria do not exist as long as price and quality are both variable finally we consider a two phase model in the first phase the duopolists sequentially choose their quality levels under the assumption that both competitors know that in the second phase a nash equilibrium in prices follows single variable mathematical programming formulations are presented to solve the problem a numerical example is also given to illustrate the working of the model

modeling competitive pricing and market share anatomy of a decision support system even with today s high emphasis on management decision support systems relatively little has been published on the motivations tribulations and post mortems that generally accompany the development of such systems this paper reports in a mixture of narrative style and more formal model exposition how a computerized decision support system for optimal price determination was developed implemented and finally applied to a broad range of industry problems

how much does the market value an improvement in a product attribute a firm contemplating improvements to its product attributes would be interested in the dollar value the market attaches to any potential product modification in this paper we derive a measure of market value such that the comparison of the measure against the incremental unit cost of the attribute improvement is key in deciding whether or not the attribute improvement is profitable competition from other brands the potential for market expansion and heterogeneity in customer preference structures are explicitly modeled using the multinomial logit framework the analysis yields a closed form expression for the market s value for an attribute improvement mvai a key result we obtain is that customers should be differentially weighted based on their probability of purchasing the firm s product in particular customers who exhibit a very high or very low probability of choosing the firm s product should receive less weight in detemining mvai because the probability of choice varies across products the answer to the question of how much the market values an improvement depends on which firm is asking the question it is shown that customers whose utilities have a greater random component should be weighted less furthermore the measure developed is robust to the influence of outliers in the sample an empirical illustration of the mvai measure in the context of a new product development study is provided the study illustrates the advantages of the proposed measure over currently used approaches and explores the possibility of competitive price reactions

how much of commodity price behavior can a rational expectations storage model explain a rational expectations competitive storage model was applied to the u s corn market to assess the aptness of this framework in explaining monthly price behavior in an actual commodity market relative to previous models extensive realism was added to the model in terms of how production activities and storage costs are specified by modeling convenience yield backwardation in prices between crop years did not depend on the unrealistic assumption of zero ending stocks our model generated cash prices that were distributed with positive skewness and kurtosis and mean and variance that increased over the storage season comparable to the persistence and the occasional spikes observed in commodity prices futures prices were generated as conditional expectations of cash prices at contract maturity and the variances of futures prices exhibited realistic time to maturity and seasonal patterns model realizations of cash and futures prices over many years were used to demonstrate the wide variety of price behaviors that could be observed in an efficient market with a similar market structure implying that economic and policy implications drawn from short historical samples of prices could be misleading

convenience yield without the convenience a spatial temporal interpretation of storage under backwardation a mathematical programming model of the wheat marketing system of western australia manifests a typical pattern of regionwide stocks held at a negative intertemporal spread measured at the port no stocks are held at a monetary loss in terms of local prices any apparent loss is an illusion from spatial aggregation of stocks and attribution of incentives at one locality to storers at all locations moreover as the premium for immediate delivery at the port rises stocks increase at relatively inaccessible inconvenient locations where prices are low allowing more to be shipped from locations more convenient to the port

pre harvest price expectations for corn the information content of usda reports and new crop futures this article examines the puzzle of why futures prices continue to react to usda crop reports despite the fact that reports appear to be no longer newsworthy that is provide no better production estimates than private forecasts the information value of reports is measured in terms of their influence on rational agents harvest time corn price expectations which are uncovered using a hamilton type modeling approach results show that reports are still newsworthy as they would contribute to agents price expectations if released a day early thus futures price reactions which closely reflect price expectations are rational and consistent with efficient markets hypothesis copyright 2008 oxford university press

note competitive price and positioning strategies brand positioning and brand pricing are important strategic decisions for marketing managers such decisions are interrelated and depend upon competitive brand positions and prices however any unilateral decisions may encourage repositioning and price adjustment by competitors thus leading to either new market equilibria or a price positioning war this paper examines such price and positioning decisions in a competitive environment by extending the defender consumer model to more complex equilibria we assume that the brands are already in the market and that positions are sticky in the sense that brands cannot leapfrog one another among the insights for such incumbent brands are if prices are symmetric and held constant firms seek to reposition toward the center of the market but price advantages by central firms can mediate that central tendency such that an equilibrium exists with positive profits if brand positions are held constant the nash equilibria for prices exist and are unique and category profits the sum of brand profits are maximized for maximum brand differentiation for two and three brand markets the subgame perfect nash equilibrium where positioning decisions are made with foresight on the price equilibria causes firms to unilaterally seek maximum brand differentiation but for four or more brands greater foresight and or cooperation appears necessary to reach the point of maximum brand differentiation these results apply where the defender consumer model is an exact description of consumer response and where the competitive reaction assumptions hold in any empirical situation such forces might be softened resulting in differentiated but not maximally differentiated brands

spatial price and variety competition in an urban retail market abstract we develop a nested logit model of spatial competition in retail markets consumers choose stores on the basis of price variety and transport cost three games are considered a price game a variety game and a combined price and variety game the videocassette rental market in edmonton alberta is used for illustration centrally located stores set lower prices and higher varieties than stores on the market periphery prices in the price and price variety games are nearly identical despite large differences in varieties similarly equilibrium varieties in the price variety game are similar to varieties in the variety game

an inverse demand system for u s composite foods this article provides a theoretically consistent framework for estimating a complete price dependent demand system where the concept of distance function and its related substitution and scale effects are used the approach is applied to a u s demand system consisting of thirteen food and one nonfood categories

pricing strategies in a dynamic duopoly a differential game model we formulate a differential game model for dynamic pricing in a duopolistic market firms demand functions are derived from utility maximizing behavior of consumers with the demand for a brand given by the logit model preferences for brands are assumed to evolve over time in the market in a manner akin to learning models postulated in the marketing literature we derive the differential equations governing the equilibrium open loop price paths over time and show that in steady state the brand with the higher preference level charges the higher price the formulation is extended to include the effects of consumer heterogeneity and equilibrium steady state prices are compared with those obtained when heterogeneity is ignored a comparison of steady state dynamic prices with myopic prices is provided an empirical example is discussed to show how steady state model predictions may be obtained from actual longitudinal purchase data

product and price competition in a two dimensional vertical differentiation model in this paper the one dimensional vertical differentiation model shaked and sutton shaked a j sutton 1982 relaxing price competition through product differentiation rev econom stud 49 3 13 moorthy moorthy k s 1988 product and price competition in a duopoly marketing sci 7spring 141 168 is extended to two dimensions and an analysis of product and price competition is presented a two stage game theoretic analysis in which two firms compete first on product positions and then on price is conducted closed form equilibrium solutions are obtained for each stage in which competitors are unrestricted in their choices of price or product positions a significant finding of this research is that unlike the one dimensional vertical differentiation model firms do not tend towards maximum differentiation although this solution is possible under certain conditions when the range of positioning options on each of the dimensions is equal maxmin product differentiation occurs that is in equilibrium the two firms tend to choose positions which will represent maximum differentiation on one dimension and minimum differentiation on the other dimension

marketing production decisions in an industrial channel of distribution this paper presents a model that considers the interface between marketing and production decisions in a channel of distribution of industrial goods comprised of a manufacturer and a distributor the key issue investigated is the nature of the coordination within the channel in light of an unstable pattern of seasonal demand the investigation which focuses on dynamic issues considers production activities such as product delivery and inventory policy and their link to marketing strategies such as pricing policies the focus here is on the dynamic nature of the coordinational aspects of the various policies for example the following questions are addressed what is the distributor s pricing strategy throughout the season what is the nature of the contractual price in the channel under what conditions should the distributor carry no inventory throughout the seasonal period under what conditions should the manufacturer carry no inventory what is the impact of the seasonal parameters and differing h

a model of advertising competition using a dynamic model of advertising rivalry between competitors in a duopoly the author obtains analytical results for the case of pure market share rivalry in a mature market a more general mod

what explains price volatility changes in commodity markets answers from the world palm oil market abstract what are the sources of commodity price volatility changes based on observation of the palm oil market 1818 1999 our hypothesis is that the superimposition of short distance operators located near the export supply whose expectation horizon is limited to a few weeks and long distance operators further from the export supply whose expectation horizon exceeds six months to one year is responsible for volatility changes and market instability because of the superimposition of expectations horizons volatility grows along with the development of short distance trade we support this hypothesis using a trader behavior model derived from day and huang j econ behavior org 14 1990 299 and day complex economic dynamics vol i mit press cambridge ma our simulation results challenge the argument that trade liberalization and market enlargement necessarily reduce commodity prices volatility

modeling expectations of bounded prices an application to the market for corn the presence of farm programs should directly affect the expectations of producers this paper analyzes the formation of price expectations when price supports constitute an effective lower bound on the distribution of the expectations we first investigate what the expected price would be if the usual rational expectations formula is used this leads to a relationship that is not estimable we suggest two alternatives one based on a tobit approximation and the other based on a perfect prediction of when the support is going to be effective using a simplified model of the u s corn market the methodology is demonstrated and compared to an alternative method of using futures prices as the expectation of harvest price the analysis of supply response for the major u s field crops is made difficult due to government intervention in these markets this intervention has been characterized by the use of price supports acreage diversion storage incentives etc during the last thirty years many studies have analyzed producer behavior in the presence of governmental involvement such studies have typically been concerned with modeling the effect of supports and diversions in an ex post sense rather than with how producers used the knowledge of farm programs to form their expectations if producers are rational economic agents their expectations of harvest prices should be conditioned both by free market forces and the type and degree of governmental intervention in the market of course farm programs have varied in nature and extent during the past thirty years and it is doubtful that any structural model could capture their complexities in this paper we attempt to introduce rational expectations in a simplified model of the u s corn market in essence we focus on the formation of price expectations when price supports constitute an effective lower bound on the distribution of the expectations we proceed by developing a theoretical model that connects the rational expectations model with a model of bounded price variation it is shown that one representation that may characterize the corn market is a triangular structural system with endogenous switching a full information maximum likelihood estimator is proposed for the system next an empirical model is specified and estimated the model is evaluated in comparison to an augmented model that contains a futures price so that some inferences may be made concerning the rational expectations model s success in summarizing relevant market information expectations under bounded prices consider a market that may be represented by a simple supply and demand system q a pt a2w el supply function pt b qt b2xt e2t demand function 1 where p and q represent market price and quantity w and x represent supply and demand shifters and p represents the rational expectation of product price at the time production decisions are made note that this system has a familiar recursive structure when the expected price variable is specified in terms of one or more lagged prices when the restricted reduced form of the structural system is solved for in terms of the expected price and this expression is used to replace pj wallis 1980 then models similar to those of goodwin and sheifrin 1982 and shonkwiler and emerson 1982

time varying risk premium further evidence in agricultural futures markets research has provided mixed results regarding the presence of a time varying risk premium in agricultural futures markets in this article we test for the presence of a time varying risk premium focusing on the properties of the underlying data our results show that accounting for the structural break in the 1970s plays a key role in the findings in contrast to recent research we find only limited evidence of time varying risk premium for a two month horizon the corn soybean meal and hog markets show no signs of a risk premium while very weak support for a time varying premium emerges in live cattle for the four month horizon no evidence of a time varying risk premium appears for any of the markets

relationship between individualist collectivist culture and entrepreneurial activity evidence from global entrepreneurship monitor data this paper examines how one dimension of national culture an individualist collectivist orientation is related to total entrepreneurial activity depending on the level of economic development measured by gdp per capita researchers have traditionally associated individualism with high rates of firm creation arguing that an orientation towards achievement and the pursuit of personal objectives dominant aspects in individualist cultures are determinants of entrepreneurial activity the current analysis shows that a country s culture correlates to entrepreneurship but cannot uphold the idea that higher levels of individualism mean higher rates of entrepreneurship using data from the global entrepreneurship monitor on 52 countries the results show that a country s entrepreneurship rate is negatively related to individualism when development is medium or low and positively related to individualism when the level of development is high thus individualism is not related to entrepreneurship in the same way in countries with differing levels of development

determining the appropriate depth and breadth of a firm s product portfolio abstract some firms have broad product lines others have lean product lines to determine the appropriate number of entries in a specific firm s product line the author develops a model that balances the benefits of increased revenue from a broad product line against production and engineering costs two innovations were central in the development of the model 1 redefining how products are scored on various product attributes so that attribute scores vary normally across the population of products and 2 redefining how the number of entries in a product portfolio is calculated in order to discount the significance of entries that are highly similar to existing products the author also introduces the notion of a centroid time to more easily adjust sales and total development costs for product life cycle and investment life cycle effects these redefinitions enable a firm s profit to be modeled as a simple function of its effective number of product entries the effective number of competitors entrie

analytical models of competition with implications for marketing issues findings and outlook the authors review a representative cross section of analytical models of competition using a framework for competitive analysis developed from a marketing perspective models are classified by the

the inefficiency of interest rate subsidies in commodity price stabilization interest rate subsidies have been used to stimulate commodity stockholding with the intention of stabilizing prices however reductions in price variability can be achieved at less government cost using a direct storage subsidy and it is possible that an interest rate subsidy will increase price variability even though the interest subsidy increases mean stocks held these results are demonstrated using a stochastic dynamic programming model of optimal private storage with parameter values relevant to agricultural commodity markets and with particular reference to the u s soybean market

generalized optimal hedge ratio estimation a generalized approach to estimating optimal hedge ratios on futures markets is developed the generalized approach is not difficult to apply and provides a framework for evaluating the appropriateness of conventional simple regression approaches to optimal hedge ratio estimation in an application to storage hedging of corn soybeans and wheat it is found that simple regression using price levels or returns leads to errors in optimal hedge ratio estimation but that simple regression using price changes provides reasonably accurate estimates

autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity in commodity spot prices muth s 1961 rational expectations model of commodity markets implies that inventory carryover creates arch processes in prices the model also indicates that the expected price variance is an explanatory variable in price regressions hypotheses were tested on price data of twenty commodities using a variation of engle et al 1987 arch m technique an arch process was found in storable and not in non storable commodity data as expected however changes in expected price variance have no significant impact on price copyright 2001 john wiley sons ltd

luck versus forecast ability determinants of trader performance in futures markets statistical techniques are used to demonstrate that the fortunes of individual futures traders are determined by luck not forecast ability even though a large number of traders appear to exhibit significantly superior forecast ability the investigation strongly supports three conclusions there are fewer participants with significantly superior skill than expected if participants trade randomly there are more traders exhibiting no skill than expected if participants trade randomly and forecast ability is not correlated over time superior forecasters in the early period are only average forecasters in the later period therefore it is luck that determines trader performance copyright 1991 by university of chicago press

estimating a nonlinear rational expectations commodity price model with unobservable state variables this paper is concerned with the estimation of a model in which a possibly serially correlated stochastic process the harvest of an agricultural commodity generates a competitive price in a market comprising both final consumers and risk neutral speculators who can store the commodity at a cost in the anticipation of profit because storage cannot be negative the relationship between prices and harvests is inherently nonlinear and is an unpromising candidate for a linear quadratic model or for linearization more generally instead we calculate numerically a policy function in which price is a function of two unobservable state variables the harvest and current availability and we use the result to fit the price data

a review of innovation research in tourism abstract over the past two decades there has been increasing focus on the topic of innovation in tourism this article reviews the research contributions various categories of innovation product process managerial marketing and institutional are addressed important determinants of innovation are acknowledged including the role of entrepreneurship technology push and the existence of territorial industry clusters representation of knowledge is also identified as a critical factor for both the occurrence and nature of innovations the review reveals that there is still only limited systematic and comparable empirical evidence of the level of innovative activities and their impacts and wider implications for destinations and national economies an agenda for future research is emerging suggesting that there is quest for both formal quantification and for qualitative studies of the foundations processes implications and policies of innovation in tourism

the value of public information in commodity futures markets abstract the informational value of u s department of agriculture usda corn and soybean production forecasts is investigated for the period 1971 1992 three tests of informational content are applied overall the results suggest usda corn and soybean forecasts provide valuable information to participants in commodity futures markets this value does appear to have declined especially since the mid 1980s

an industry equilibrium analysis of downstream vertical integration this paper investigates the effect of product substitutability on nash equilibrium distribution structures in a duopoly where each manufacturer distributes its goods through a single exclusive retailer which may be either a franchised outlet or a factory store static linear demand and cost functions are assumed and a number of rules about players expectations of competitors behavior are examined it is found that for most specifications product substitutability does influence the equilibrium distribution structure for low degrees of substitutability each manufacturer will distribute its product through a company store for more highly competitive goods manufacturers will be more likely to use a decentralized distribution system this article was originally published in marketing science volume 2 issue 2 pages 161 191 in 1983

quantifying the wasde announcement effect this article uses a two stage gls model to quantify the world agricultural supply and demand estimates wasde announcement effect for cotton soybeans and hard winter wheat controlling for important factors associated with commodity price volatility the information presented by the overlapping nature of futures contracts is exploited to estimate conditional effects by month inventory conditions and delivery horizon results in this article show that the wasde announcement effect persists across contract positions is not limited to months that include nass crop survey data is amplified during low carryover periods for soybeans and wheat and is rapidly incorporated into futures prices

estimating the competitive storage model with trending commodity prices we present a method to estimate jointly the parameters of a standard commodity storage model and the parameters characterizing the trend in commodity prices this procedure allows the influence of a possible trend to be removed without restricting the model specification and allows model and trend selection based on statistical criteria the trend is modeled deterministically using linear or cubic spline functions of time the results show that storage models with trend are always preferred to models without trend they yield more plausible estimates of the structural parameters with storage costs and demand elasticities that are more consistent with the literature they imply occasional stockouts whereas without trend the estimated models predict no stockouts over the sample period for most commodities moreover accounting for a trend in the estimation imply price moments closer to those observed in commodity prices our results support the empirical relevance of the speculative storage model and show that storage model estimations should not neglect the possibility of long run price trends

the impact of competitive entry in a developing market upon dynamic pricing strategies this paper analyzes dynamic pricing strategies for new durable goods in a two period context the first period is characterized as a monopoly market structure for a new product having dynamic demand the second period begins when a new firm enters the market and thereby changes the market structure to a duopolistic one we begin by analyzing the pricing strategies of three types of monopolists nonmyopic myopic and surprised a nonmyopic monopolist is a first entrant who perfectly predicts the competitive entry a myopic monopolist totally discounts the duopolistic period and a surprised monopolist is a first entrant who has the longer time horizon of the nonmyopic monopolist but who does not foresee the competitive entry our results indicate that the nature of these pricing strategies may be quite different it is optimal for the nonmyopic firm to price its product at a higher level than the myopic monopolist additional results indicate under what circumstances the surprised monopolist will p

are harvest forecasts news usda announcements and futures market reactions futures market price data for maize and soyabeans are used to examine reactions to us department of agriculture harvest forecasts these forecasts are widely known and reasonably accurate so failure to find significant reaction would indicate that the usda did not contribute additional news relative to information already possessed by traders various t tests f tests and nonparametric chi square tests indicate rejection of the null hypothesis of no significant difference between means of absolute values or variances of changes in closing prices on days following a usda announcement and other days thus the data indicate that significant information is contained in the forecasts

the working curve and commodity storage under backwardation there remains controversy over whether the empirical curve relating intertemporal commodity price spreads and stocks originally drawn by holbrook working in 1933 i e the working curve is a valid stylized fact in commodity markets the core of the controversy is the portion of the curve representing commodity stocks under backwardation in this article we analyze the original data used by working plus more disaggregated numbers we find that the working curve is indeed valid the diversity of stockholders and different stockholding motives most likely explain the empirical working curve relationship

what causes commodity price backwardation a recently proposed explanation for futures price backwardation is examined an equilibrium model with spatial heterogeneity leads to the interpretation of backwardations as mismeasurement by the analyst however the model predicts that backwardations are more affected by the location of stocks than by their aggregate level empirical examination of the united states corn market fails to support this result

impact on corn prices from reduced biofuel mandates press reports indicate that the environmental protection agency may significantly reduce ethanol mandates to levels that can easily be met to gain insight into what this decision implies about the price of corn we use a new model of the corn and rin markets to project corn and ethanol prices and quantities through the 2019 marketing year under two ethanol mandate scenarios the first scenario is the status quo where mandates that can be met with corn ethanol increase to 14 4 billion gallons in 2014 and 15 billion gallons in 2015 and thereafter mandates at this level can only be met using e85 so also included in this scenario is 5 000 new locations where e85 can be purchased the second scenario holds mandates at 13 billion gallons a level that can be met with e10 the price of corn is higher by between 5 and 6 percent about 25 cents per bushel in the higher mandate scenario rin prices are close to zero most of the time in the lower mandate scenario and average between 50 and 60 cents in the higher mandate scenario though the corn price difference is economically meaningful to corn farmers and livestock feeders it is small compared to the price swings that the market has experienced since 2006 this modest change in corn prices from alternative mandate levels suggests that the level of mandate should be determined more by consideration of broad policy objectives rather than the impact on the price of corn of key importance to the advanced biofuel industry is whether policy will support the expansion of biofuels consumption by creating incentives to invest in flex cars and fueling stations that will facilitate expanded consumption of low carbon ethanol consideration of the costs and benefits of creating these incentives as part of a national energy policy is of greater long run importance than the impact of mandates on the price of corn

cuba in transition tourism industry perceptions of entrepreneurial change abstract the cuban government is working to create a climate conducive to a strong and sustainable private sector as state employment declines many residents are exploring the potential of tourism cuban entrepreneurs are interested in expanding beyond packaged mass tourism to develop more creative tourism products however the success of cuban entrepreneurs is dependent on a number of conditions external to the entrepreneur known as the entrepreneurial climate ec building on previous entrepreneurship research this study utilizes interviews of a small group of tourism stakeholders in cuba to address the research question what are the perceptions of tourism stakeholders of both barriers to and factors encouraging private enterprise it concludes with recommendations for planning and policy based on these perceptions that may cultivate entrepreneurial tourism development in cuba including improved internet access development of both wholesaling and financing systems business education and legalization of additional tourism professions recommendations from the informants also align with recent initiatives in other centrally governed nations e g china singapore and bolivia that have introduced private enterprise to their economies recently these initiatives could serve as models for cuba moving forward

a theory of commodity price fluctuations this paper studies the price fluctuations of storable commodities that are traded in open markets and are subject to random shocks to demand or more particularly to supply it relaxes the common assumption that the shocks are identically and independently distributed in favor of temporally dependent and periodic disturbances the existence of a unique stationary rational expectations equilibrium is demonstrated for each of the models analyzed and testable implications of the models are derived an illustrative empirical investigation is then undertaken for the model with periodic disturbances using monthly time series observations for seven commodities over the period 1960 93

stackelberg nash cournot equilibria characterizations and computations the supply side of an oligopolistic market supplying a homogeneous product noncooperatively is modeled in this market there is one leader and n followers the followers operate under the cournot assumption of zero conjectural variation and are accordingly called cournot firms the leader called a stackelberg firm specifically takes into account the reaction of the cournot firms to its output for this situation we study the behavior and implications of the joint cournot reaction curve as generated by plausible economic market assumptions in particular we study the existence and uniqueness of a stackelberg nash cournot equilibrium in addition we prescribe an efficient algorithm to determine a set of equilibrating output quantities for the firms

supporting innovation for tourism development through multi stakeholder approaches experiences from africa innovation and entrepreneurship provide essential value to the advancement and quality of the international tourism industry for less economically developed countries ledcs tourism innovation is an opportunity to differentiate the tourism product making it more competitive and increasing socio economic gains at grassroots level counteracting foreign currency leakages from the destination the paper argues that for small indigenous businesses in ledc destinations to flourish a supportive environment promoting innovation and entrepreneurship is required the paper emphasises the importance of multi stakeholder collaboration by drawing on two distinct african case studies a trade association in the gambia and a training programme building entrepreneurial capacity in a university in tanzania both of which have helped provide supportive environments for indigenous entrepreneurship and innovation the gambian case study is based on a collaborative marketing approach the tanzanian case study on the triple helix model both demonstrate the importance of institutional support in stimulating networking transfer of knowledge and best practice in ledc destinations

product positioning under price competition this paper presents a consumer based methodology for new product pricing and positioning in the face of price competition the price competition is modelled as a nash equilibrium for which two complementary approaches are employed an analytical approach of duopoly provides qualitative insights into the competitive behavior and a numerical approach of general oligopoly provides quantitative solutions under a wide variety of market scenarios the optimal product positioning is formulated as a stackelberg nash leader followers equilibrium which can be solved numerically using recent advances in the field of variational inequalities a small example concerning analgesics is used to illustrate this methodology

economic behavior under uncertainty a joint analysis of risk preferences and technology a method is developed to estimate jointly risk preferences and technology under general conditions the approach is illustrated in an application to the analysis of u s corn soybean acreage decisions over time the results provide useful information on the nature of farmers risk preferences and on the influence of price risk and production risk on acreage allocation and farmers welfare copyright 1996 by mit press

strategic implications of market share attraction models market share attraction models which specify that a firm s market share is equal to the ratio of its attraction to the total attraction for all firms have received increasing attention in recent years however there has been little research investigating the practical implications of such models this paper presents a game theoretic analysis of such a model and deduces the strategic implications of a nash equilibrium solution to the model it is shown that these implications are consistent with previous empirical research in marketing and business policy

notes a numerical approach to deriving long run equilibrium solutions in spatial positioning models choi desarbo and harker 1990 have recently proposed a numerical methodology for optimal product positioning and pricing under the assumption that the incumbents react only with price changes in the short run the current note extends this methodology to include incumbents long run strategy of competitive product repositioning in addition to price reactions this note also introduces the notion of product relocation cost to the equilibrium analysis and applies the concept of full and partial adjustment processes toward an equilibrium to model various strategic behavior of firms this methodology is illustrated using an existing set of data collected for a major telecommunication equipment manufacturer

are revisions to usda crop production forecasts smoothed this article uses nordhaus framework to determine the efficiency of the revision process for usda corn and soybean production forecasts over the 1970 1971 through 2004 2005 marketing years positive autocorrelation and consistency of directional changes in forecast revisions suggest these forecasts are smoothed evidence is provided that the loss in forecast accuracy due to smoothing is statistically and economically significant in several cases a conservative bias in farm operators assessments of yield potential and in the procedure for translating enumerator s information about plant fruit counts into objective yield estimates are identified as plausible sources of smoothing

product differences and prices abstract under assumptions following hotelling s 1929 paper stability in competition the possibility of constructing an example in which equilibrium prices exist everywhere and the two merchants display tendencies to agglomerate is ruled out

expectations and commodity price dynamics the overshooting model monetary policy has important effects on agricultural commodity prices because though they are flexible other goods prices are sticky this paper formalizes the argument by applying the dornbusch overshooting model a decline in the nominal money supply is a decline in the real money supply in the short run it raises the real interest rate which depresses real commodity prices they overshoot their new equilibrium in order to generate an expectation of future appreciation sufficient to offset the higher interest rate these real effects which vanish in the long run also result from a decline in the money growth rate

an econometric model of location and pricing in the gasoline market abstract the authors propose an econometric model of both the geographic locations of gasoline retailers in singapore and price competition among retailers conditional on their geographic locations although market demand for gasoline is not observed the authors are able to infer the effects of such demand from stations locations and pricing decisions using available data on local market level demographics using the proposed location model which is based on the assumption of social welfare maximization by a policy planner the authors find that local potential gasoline demand depends positively on the local demographic characteristics of the neighborhood using the proposed pricing model which is based on the assumption of bertrand competition between retail chains the authors find that retail margins for gasoline are approximately 21 the authors also find that consumers are willing to travel up to a mile for a savings of 03 per liter using the estimates of the proposed econometric model the a

perceptual position and competitive brand strategy in a two dimensional two brand market brand positioning and competitive reaction are important determinants of optimal brand strategy analyses of brand strategy have focused on optimal pricing and positioning issues using either empirical models of perceptions and preferences game theory to examine competition or both however the important issues of advertising and distribution strategy have not been fully addressed this paper analyzes competition and strategy between two brands that compete in a two dimensional market with advertising and distribution spending in addition to prices and product positions in particular for a unimodal taste distribution of ideal points we show how optimal competitive nash equilibrium marketing mix levels and profits depend on the positions of both brands brands can reposition to increase profit and under what conditions these strategies imply minimum versus maximum differentiation positioning equilibria and how the intensity of advertising and distribution competition affect equilibrium brand positions

identifying supply and demand elasticities of agricultural commodities implications for the us ethanol mandate we present a new framework to identify supply elasticities of storable commodities where past shocks are used as exogenous price shifters in the agricultural context past yield shocks change inventory levels and futures prices of agricultural commodities we use our estimated elasticities to evaluate the impact of the 2009 renewable fuel standard on commodity prices quantities and food consumers surplus for the four basic staples corn rice soybeans and wheat prices increase 20 per cent if one third of commodities used to produce ethanol are recycled as feedstock with a positively skewed 95 percent confidence interval that ranges from 14 to 35 per cent jel q11 q16 q42 q48

competition strategy and price dynamics a theoretical and empirical investigation the authors explore how competition affects dynamic pricing of new products dynamics of diffusion saturation and cost reduction due to experience are all considered with emphasis on the last t

pricing patterns as outcomes of product positions prior empirical work shows that different markets are characterized by different pricing patterns such as bertrand nash pricing or stackelberg leader follower pricing the author considers a duopolistic market where ex ante identical firms sequentially position their products prior to competing on prices in a single or multiperiod setting and show that the unique equilibrium outcome involves 1 firms choosing stackelberg pricing over bertrand nash pricing and 2 the positioning first mover acting as the price leader an attractive property of this model is that the ex post larger firm acts as the price leader which is consistent with prior empirical evidence copyright 1999 by university of chicago press

competition and cooperation in marketing channel choice theory and application this paper discusses the problem of choosing a vertical marketing channel in a product differentiated duopolistic market firms choose product price and the form of the marketing channel to maximize profits it is shown that integration of the marketing function results in greater price competition and lower prices than does the use of independent marketing middlemen the profitability of reducing price competition by using such middlemen is investigated two hypotheses that integration is negatively associated with the products substitutability and that symmetric channel structures are stable are tested in a preliminary way and supported with survey data from the international semiconductor industry

modeling manufacturing and marketing options in international operations abstract in this paper we model and compare eight manufacturing marketing options that a firm with operations in two countries termed as an international enterprise may adopt manufacturing factors incorporated in the model include factory location inventory economies of scale product design and postponement marketing factors include product positioning and pricing the model also includes international factors such as the exchange rate and transportation cost the first two options are termed core product options where the international enterprise manufactures a core product in a single facility located in one of the countries under the first core product option this facility also performs additional operations on the core product to develop custom tailored products under the second core product option customization of the core product takes place in facilities located in both countries the other six options are characterized by standardization customization of product and pricing policies as well as centralization decentralization of the production function the main result of the analysis is that under certain production related conditions the core product options dominate the other six manufacturing marketing options this result has significant managerial implications since it suggests that the core product options exploit the best of both worlds customized pricing and product policies as well as savings derived from economies of scale from the centralized production of the core product