reference dependent ambiguity abstract motivated by experimental and empirical evidence i study a framework where reference points such as a status quo endowment or default option can distort the way an individual responds to ambiguity i characterize a model of reference dependent maxmin expected utility and provide behavioral foundations for comparing reference dependent ambiguity attitudes i also illustrate some implications of reference dependent ambiguity for trade in an asset market including underdiversification no trade and the potential for a market collapse

the knightian uncertainty and the risk premium and the risk free rate puzzles in japan and the u s abstract this paper proposes a new measure for knightian uncertainty under markovian economy and solves the risk premium and the risk free rate puzzle under knightian uncertainty in japan and the u s with plausible values for time preference and risk aversion parameters

stable equilibrium in beliefs in extensive games with perfect information abstract the purpose of this paper is to present a new solution concept of stable equilibrium in beliefs seb by assuming it is common knowledge that players are uncertainty averse in the sense of gilboa and schmeidler 1989 journal of mathematical economics 18 141 153 by making use of an appealing criterion of stability an seb is defined as a strategy profile supported by a stable belief system it is shown that all sebs constitute a unique stable belief system and an seb satisfies subgame perfectness moreover it is shown that the notion of seb refines that of subgame perfect equilibrium in terms of path of play finally following aumann 1995 games and economic behavior 8 6 19 this paper establishes some epistemic foundation for the notion of seb

the effect of commute time on racial earnings inequality a case study of the houston metropolitan statistical area data from the united states census confirm a substantial increase in the racial earnings gap between 1980 and 1990 this paper examines data on whites and non white wage and salary incomes in houston tx for 1980 and 1990 data on time travelled to work is used to simulate what would be the impact of shorter commute times on earnings inequality the central finding is that a reduction in travel time from residence to work would cause a very small reduction in racial earnings and income inequality this suggests that advances in urban transportation policy alone are not sufficient to solve the problem of racial earnings inequality

econometric analysis of cps type unemployment data analysts studying the unemployment experiences of population members often have access to data collected from a sample of individuals at a point in time which contain the length of the ongoing spell of unemployment for sample members currently unemployed no information regarding the lengths of ongoing employment spells is collected this paper considers how such information may be utilized in the estimation of parameters of alternating renewal process models of labor market attachment in the presence of both observed and unobserved population heterogeneity a number of models are presented and estimation is carried out using a cps type data set from italy

uncertainty and risk in financial markets this paper considers a general equilibrium model in which the distinction between uncertainty and risk is formalized by assuming agents have incomplete preferences over statecontingent consumption bundles as in bewley 1986 without completeness individual decision making depends on a set of probability distributions over the state space a bundle is preferred to another if and only if it has larger expected utility for all probabilities in this set when preferences are complete this set is a singleton and the model reduces to standard expected utility in this setting we characterize pareto optima and equilibria and show that the presence of uncertainty generates robust indeterminacies in equilibrium prices and allocations for any specification of initial endowments we derive comparative statics results linking the degree of uncertainty with changes in equilibria despite the presence of robust indeterminacies we show that equilibrium prices and allocations vary continuously with underlying fundamentals equilibria in a standard risk economy are thus robust to adding small degrees of uncertainty finally we give conditions under which some assets are not traded due to uncertainty aversion

on the job search the case of nevada test site contractor employees the us nuclear testing moratorium has reduced employment levels at the nevada test site nts this study analyses the incidence duration and determinants of on the job search activity of nts employees who expect permanent job losses empirical results support theoretical predictions originating from search theory and suggest that high skilled white collar workers are the most likely to search while employed and therefore are the least likely to face severe dislocation problems

non additive beliefs and strategic equilibria abstract this paper studies n player games where players beliefs about their opponents behaviour are modelled as non additive probabilities the concept of an equilibrium under uncertainty which is introduced in this paper extends the equilibrium notion of dow and werlang 1994 j econom theory 64 305 324 to n player games in strategic form existence of such an equilibrium is demonstrated under usual conditions for low degrees of ambiguity equilibria under uncertainty approximate nash equilibria at the other extreme with a low degree of confidence maximin equilibria appear finally robustness against a lack of confidence may be viewed as a refinement for nash equilibria journal of economic literature classification numbers c72 d81

utility maximization in models of discrete choice abstract in this paper i construct a direct utility function that has as its counterpart an indirect utility function that is commonly used in models of product differentiation

asset allocation with distorted beliefs and transaction costs abstract in this paper we study the problem of the optimal portfolio selection with transaction costs for a decision maker who is faced with knightian uncertainty the decision maker s portfolio consists of one risky and one risk free asset and we assume that the transaction costs are proportional to the traded volume of the risky asset the attitude to uncertainty is modeled by the choquet expected utility we derive optimal strategies and bounds of the no transaction region for both optimistic and pessimistic decision makers the no transaction region of a pessimistic investor is narrower and its bounds lie closer to the origin than that of an optimistic trader moreover under the choquet expected utility the structure of the no transaction region is not necessarily a closed interval as it is under the standard expected utility model

precautionary principle and the optimal timing of environmental policy under ambiguity i consider a problem in environmental policy design in which i focus on stock pollutants in particular i consider stock pollutants that cause severe damage on the environment and do not depreciate at all once they are released into the atmosphere and the ocean the purposes of this paper are 1 to provide an economic foundation for environmental policies based on the precautionary principle and the 1992 rio declaration on environment and development and 2 to show that this optimal timing rule has a reservation property furthermore i analyze the effect of an increase in ambiguity on the optimal timing of adopting some environmental policy and show that an increase in ambiguity decreases the optimal timing of adopting the environmental policy

dynamically consistent beliefs must be bayesian abstract experimental evidence such as the ellsberg paradox contradicts the savage model of decision making under uncertainty since the representation of beliefs underlying preferces by a single probability measure leaves no room for the degree of imprecision in information to affect decisions proceeding axiomatically this paper shows that the existence of a bayesain prior is implied even if savage s sure thing principle is deleted if preferences i are based on beliefs and ii admit dynamically consistent updating in response to new information the result raises questions about the appeal of models of preference that feature a separation of tastes and beliefs journal of economic literature classification number d81

uncertainty aversion and rationality in games of perfect information abstract this paper shows how uncertainty aversion can resolve ties in extensive games of perfect information and thereby refine subgame perfection in such games this is done by assuming that a players are rational with multi prior expected utility functions of gilboa and schmeidler 1989 journal of economic theory 48 221 237 and b a player s plan of the game corresponds to set valued acts at each of his decision nodes the so called strategy system in contrast to single valued act as specified in the traditional notion of strategy profile the effects of pre communication channels among players are studied and are reflected in each of the three proposed solutions finally existence of equilibria are established for each proposed solution concept as well as comparisons with other existing solutions

freedom and international migration economic and political freedoms are regressed on a bilateral cross section of international migrant stocks using ordinary least squares and tobit techniques a positive relationship between these variables is found economic freedom is statistically significant even when controlling for income per capita and political freedom in addition the impact of these freedoms on migration flows into oecd countries between 2001 and 2006 using fixed effects estimations is analyzed the panel data analysis mostly corroborates the cross sectional analysis the notable exception is that political freedom appears to have had a negative impact on migration flows during this period

does immigration impact institutions the economics literature generally finds a positive but small gain in income to native born populations from immigrants and potentially large gains in world incomes but immigrants can also impact a recipient nation s institutions a growing empirical literature supports the importance of strong private property rights a rule of law and an environment of economic freedom for promoting long run prosperity but little is known about how immigration impacts these institutions this paper empirically examines how immigration impacts a nation s policies and institutions we find no evidence of negative and some evidence of positive impacts in institutional quality as a result of immigration

modelling heterogeneity in patients preferences for the attributes of a general practitioner appointment this paper examines the distribution of preferences among respondents to a discrete choice experiment on the choice of general practitioner appointments in addition to standard logit mixed and latent class logit models are used to analyse the data from the choice experiment it is found that there is significant preference heterogeneity for all the attributes in the experiment and that both the mixed and latent class models lead to significant improvements in fit compared to the standard logit model moreover the distribution of preferences implied by the preferred mixed and latent class models is similar for many attributes

workers marginal costs of commuting abstract this paper applies a dynamic search model to estimate workers marginal costs of commuting including monetary and time costs using data on workers job search activity as well as moving behaviour for the netherlands we provide evidence that on average workers marginal costs of one hour of commuting are about 17 euro

female labour supply and on the job search an empirical model estimated using complementary data sets we develop an empirical model of labour supply that is consistent with on the job search and which is identified and estimated by combining two data sets the u k family expenditure survey which contains information on income and expenditure and the u k labour force survey which has data on hours and job search behaviour we provide statistical evidence on the compatibility of the two samples for the purposes of estimating our model we find that search has a direct negative effect on hours of work and we establish a strong positive effect of wages on hours

towards applied geographical economics modelling relative wage rates incomes and prices for the regions of great britain one of the key issues surrounding geographical economics is whether the theory can be made operational so that proper investigations can be made of the basic theoretical assumptions and practical use can be made of the model s predictions at a detailed spatial level in this paper the model formalized by fujita et al 1999 is developed in the context of 36 regions of great britain enabling direct comparisons with observed wage rate data that are used to calibrate the model iceberg transport costs are in the form of an exponential function and a power function for the range of parameters considered the power function gives a better fit between model and data suggesting scale economies in transportation the paper shows that in spite of the assumptions that have to be made quite realistic distributions of relative wages income and prices are attainable however caution is required in the interpretation of these simulations which in no way provide proof of new economic geography theory which cl

investment in new activities and the welfare cost of uncertainty abstract recent literature has shown that trade distortions are associated with first order costs stemming from the induced drop in the formation of new activities we demonstrate that uncertainty may induce similar welfare costs and that these costs apply also to a closed economy this argument is illustrated in romer s model of a dependent economy where foreign direct investment is needed to enable the importation of capital goods and intermediate products used in domestic production we show that knightian uncertainty inhibits the formation of new activities leading to first order losses whereas risk aversion alone leads to second order losses

extensive form games with uncertainty averse players abstract nash equilibrium presumes that the beliefs of a player are represented by a probability measure motivated by the ellsberg paradox and relevant experimental findings demonstrating that this representation of beliefs may be unrealistic this paper generalizes nash equilibrium in finite extensive form games to allow for preferences conforming to the multiple priors model developed by gilboa and schmeidler journal of mathematical economics 18 1989 141 153 the implications of this generalization for strategy choices and welfare are studied journal of economic literature classification numbers c72 d81

ambiguity and uncertainty in ellsberg and shackle this paper argues that the similarities between ellsberg s and shackle s frameworks for discussing the limits of the probabilistic approach to decision theory are more important than usually admitted the paper discusses the grounds on which the ambiguity surrounding the decision maker in ellsberg s urn experiments can be deemed analogous to the uncertainty faced by shackle s entrepreneur taking crucial decisions the two authors insights are assessed and special attention is paid to the criteria for decision under uncertainty they put forward the paper establishes a link between ellsberg s and shackle s perspectives and the non additive probability approach of gilboa and schmeidler an approach that offers an alternative to standard probability calculus which can be of use to analyse both ambiguity and uncertainty the comparison between ellsberg and shackle draws on an interpretation of keynes s treatise on probability emphasising keynes s rejection of both well defined probability functions and maximisation as a guide to human conduct it is shown that keynes s viewpoint implies a reconsideration of the boundaries of probability theory that is in the same vein of ellsberg s and shackle s concern in the years of the consolidation of savage s new probabilistic mainstream copyright the author 2009 published by oxford university press on behalf of the cambridge political economy society all rights reserved oxford university press

applied welfare economics with discrete choice models economists have been paying increasing attention to the study of situations in which consumers face a discrete rather than a continuous set of choices such models are potentially very important in evaluating the impact of government programs upon consumer welfare but very little has been said in general regarding the tools of applied welfare economics indiscrete choice situations this paper shows how the conventional methods of applied welfare economics can be modified to handle such cases it focuses on the computation of the excess burden of taxation and the evaluation of quality change the results are applied to stochastic utility models including the popular cases of probit and logit analysis throughout the emphasis is on providing rigorous guidelines for carrying out applied work this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

ambiguity optimism and pessimism in adverse selection models we investigate the effect of ambiguity and ambiguity attitude on the shape and properties of the optimal contract in an adverse selection model with a continuum of types using the parametric model of ambiguity and ambiguity aversion called the neo additive model chateauneuf eichberger and grant 2007 we show that it necessarily features efficiency and a jump at the top and pooling at the bottom of the distribution conditional on the degree of ambiguity the pooling section may or may not be supplemented by a separating section as a result ambiguity adversely affects the principal s ability to solve the adverse selection problem and therefore the least efficient types benefit from ambiguity with respect to risk conversely ambiguity is detrimental to the most efficient types this is confirmed in the comparative statics section

paralyzed by fear rigid and discrete pricing under demand uncertainty we propose a new theory of price rigidity based on firms knightian uncertainty about their competitive environment this uncertainty has two key implications first firms learn about the shape of their demand function from past observations of quantities sold this learning gives rise to kinks in the expected profit function at previously observed prices making those prices both sticky and more likely to reoccur second uncertainty about the relationship between aggregate and industry level inflation generates nominal rigidity we prove the main insights analytically and quantify the effects of our mechanism our estimated quantitative model is consistent with a wide range of micro level pricing facts that are typically challenging to match jointly it also implies significantly more persistent monetary non neutrality than in standard models allowing it to generate large real effects from nominal shocks

on booms that never bust ambiguity in experimental asset markets with bubbles we study the effect of ambiguity on the formation of bubbles and on the occurrence of crashes in experimental asset markets a la smith suchanek and williams 1988 we extend their framework to an environment where the fundamental value of the asset is ambiguous we show that when the fundamental value is ambiguous asset prices tend to be lower than when it is risky although bubbles form in both the ambiguous and the risky environments additionally bubbles do not crash in the ambiguous case whereas they do so in the risky one these findings regarding depressed prices and the absence of crashes in the presence of ambiguity are in line with recent theoretical work stressing the crucial role of ambiguity to account for surprisingly low equity prices high returns as well as herding in asset markets

estimating the economic return to educational levels using data on twins this paper relaxes some restrictions of previous twin based estimates of the effects of education on earnings first it estimates the earnings premiums associated with different educational levels second it estimates a piecewise linear relationship between the natural logarithm of annual earnings and years of schooling third the measurement error corrections are based on a less restrictive non classical measurement error model the estimation strategy implies that ability bias can be investigated separately in different parts of the educational distribution the linear relationship between the logarithm of annual earnings and years of schooling is rejected furthermore the results in the sample of identical mz twins indicated both that the ability bias could be of different signs and of different magnitudes in different parts of the educational distribution the twin based estimates in the sample of fraternal dz twins did not display any marked differences as compared to the cross sectional estimates finally the results indicated that the error corrected twin based estimates of the average return to years of schooling that rely on a classical measurement error model are upwards biased by approximately 30 copyright 2004 john wiley sons ltd

is ambiguity aversion bad for innovation abstract not necessarily i consider two firms that compete both on the research market and on the product market assuming the product market outcome is ambiguous i e uncertainty is described by multiple distribution of outcomes i show that an increase in firms ambiguity aversion increases the ex ante likelihood that they invest in r d an increase in their risk aversion on the other hand decreases innovation the result holds when the innovation has a business stealing effect as in a cournot duopoly with vertical differentiation the key intuition is that ambiguity aversion exacerbates the competitive threat whereas risk aversion diminishes the profit incentive to invest in addition to showing that an increase in ambiguity aversion leads to more projects being pursued i show that an increase in ambiguity aversion can lead to an increase in investment for incremental projects in the case of more radical projects an increase in ambiguity aversion can but not necessarily lead to lower investment in equilibrium overall ambiguity aversion has a positive effect on most innovative projects but can sometimes have a negative effect on some of the more radical game changing ones

iq and stock market participation stock market participation is monotonically related to iq controlling for wealth income age and other demographic and occupational information the high correlation between iq and participation exists even among the affluent supplemental data from siblings studied with an instrumental variables approach and regressions that control for family effects demonstrate that iq s influence on participation extends to females and does not arise from omitted familial and nonfamilial variables high iq investors are more likely to hold mutual funds and larger numbers of stocks experience lower risk and earn higher sharpe ratios we discuss implications for policy and finance research

model misspecification and underdiversification in this paper we study intertemporal portfolio choice when an investor accounts explicitly for model misspecification we develop a framework that allows for ambiguity about not just the joint distribution of returns for all stocks in the portfolio but also for different levels of ambiguity for the marginal distribution of returns for any subset of these stocks we find that when the overall ambiguity about the joint distribution of returns is high then small differences in ambiguity for the marginal return distribution will result in a portfolio that is significantly underdiversified relative to the standard mean variance portfolio

adam smith may have been right after all a new approach to the analysis of compensating differentials abstract if workers with low wages compared to their level of human capital exaggerate their workplace disamenities estimates of compensating differentials will be biased evidence of such a bias is found in a matched employee employer survey

hierarchical choice in economics abstract the paper examines the relevance for economic issues of choice which is not characterized by unlimited substitutability after showing that hierarchical choice is common in other social sciences like psychology the paper proceeds with an examination of such choice and of its different categories subsequently the implications for hierarchical choice for specific economic issues are analysed in particular there is discussion and literature review of demand theory engel curves the theory of the firm and social choice theory finally some suggestions for the application to other economic problems are considered

violations of belief persistence in dempster shafer equilibrium abstract belief persistence is a standard rationality axiom in formal models of belief change it requires that new information be accommodated with the smallest possible change to existing beliefs this note shows that violations of belief persistence are possible in j eichberger and d kelsey s 1999a signalling games with uncertainty unpublished university of birmingham 1999b in beliefs interactions and preferences in decision making m j machina and b munier eds pp 135 157 dordrecht kluwer academic dempster shafer equilibrium dse a solution concept for signaling games based on choquet expected utility such violations may lead to implausible equilibria so a refinement of dse is proposed journal of economic literature classification numbers c72 d81

economic freedom and migration a metro area level analysis we examine the determinants of intra u s population migration at the metropolitan area level msa with an emphasis on the presence of policies that are consistent with economic freedom we are the first to produce a multivariate regression analysis of migration and economic freedom at the local level combining a 1993 2014 unbalanced panel of msa to msa migration data from the internal revenue service with a new economic freedom index for u s metropolitan areas we find that a 10 increase in economic freedom of a destination msa relative to the economic freedom of an origin msa was associated with a 27 4 increase in net migration from the origin msa to the destination msa if we use mean net migration flows as a benchmark we would expect a 10 increase in relative economic freedom to increase net migration to the destination msa by 22 workers per year from each other msa

ambiguity models and the machina paradoxes daniel ellsberg 1961 constructed counterexamples to show the limitations of leonard j savage s 1954 subjective expected utility seu ellsberg s examples involved a comparison between objective uncertainty risk in which probabilities are known and subjective uncertainty in which they are not the prevailing prefer ence for objective over subjective uncertainty known as ambiguity aversion raised an important paradox for economic theory since ellsberg s classical work many models have been developed to generalize seu in order to accommodate the pref erence for objective over subjective uncertainty in the same manner as ellsberg mark j machina 2009 proposed two examples that falsify one of the seu generalizations david schmeidler s 1989 choquet expected utility ceu this article shows that the impact of machina s examples is not restricted to the model initially targeted his examples pose difficulties not only for ceu but also for the four other most popular and widely used models of ambiguity averse preferences namely maxmin expected utility itzhak gilboa and schmeidler 1989 variational preferences fabio maccheroni massimo marinacci and aldo rustichini 2006 a maxmin paolo ghirardato maccheroni and marinacci 2004 and the smooth model of ambiguity aversion peter klibanoff marinacci and sujoy mukerji 2005 consequently the implications for economics are more pro found than initially thought we also discuss marciano siniscalchi s 2009 vector expected utility veu model which can account for the typical ambiguity averse preferences in machina s examples finally we examine how our results are related to the uncertainty aver sion axiom which is assumed in virtually all commonly used decision models under ambiguity in particular we argue that machina s examples demonstrate that the uncertainty aversion axiom can be overly restrictive in some circumstances the article proceeds as follows section i presents the four models of ambiguity averse preferences which are alternatives to ceu and which are examined in this paper in section ii and iii the implications of machina s examples for these models are presented section iv discusses alternative models and the uncertainty aversion axiom

relative income effects on subjective well being in the cross section abstract recent work suggests that a person s subjective well being swb depends to a large degree on relative income focusing on the underlying identification this paper makes four contributions to this literature it describes the aggregation problem with past studies implements an estimation strategy to overcome this problem finds micro level evidence in support of the hypothesis that relative income does matter in individual assessments of swb and uses cross section estimates to replicate the aggregate time series the evidence further indicates that relative income effects may be smaller at low income levels the results are obtained from ordered probit techniques and the general social survey gss

the value of commuting time in an empirical on the job search model an application based on moments from two samples this article estimates the value of commuting time voct among swedish males in an empirical on the job search model it uses a large sample of employee establishment linked data obtained from administrative registers the sample lacks information on mode choice for the journey to work we therefore estimate a mode choice model on another sample and use this model to link the administrative data to the relevant set of travel times costs and distances the voct is found to be 1 8 times the net hourly wage rate in the sample the relatively high estimate results from a high voct among cohabiting men

preference for the workplace investment in human capital and gender we use a hypothetical choice methodology to estimate preferences for workplace attributes from a sample of high ability undergraduates attending a highly selective university we estimate that women on average have a higher willingness to pay wtp for jobs with greater work flexibility and job stability and men have a higher wtp for jobs with higher earnings growth these job preferences relate to college major choices and to actual job choices reported in a follow up survey four years after graduation the gender differences in preferences explain at least a quarter of the early career gender wage gap

an economic analysis of identity and career choice standard economic models which focus on pecuniary payoffs cannot explain why there are highly able individuals who choose careers with low pecuniary returns therefore financial incentives are unlikely to be effective in influencing career choices of these individuals based on akerlof and kranton 2000 we consider a model of career choice and identity where individuals derive non pecuniary identity payoffs using factor analysis on a range of attitude questions we find two factors related to identity career orientation and social orientation which are important for educational choices the implication is that policymakers and institutions of higher education need to focus on identity related issues rather than just improved financial incentives if they aim at attracting the high ability youth to occupations with excess demand for labor

profit or patients health benefit exploring the heterogeneity in physician altruism abstract this paper investigates physician altruism toward patients health benefit using behavioral data from hennig schmidt et al s 2011 laboratory experiment in the experiment medical students in the role of physicians decide on the provision of medical services the experimental setup allows us to identify the influence of profits and patients health benefit on the choice of medical treatment we estimate physician altruism the weight individuals attach to patients health benefit by fitting mixed logit and multinomial logit regression models to the experimental data estimation results provide evidence for physician altruism we find however substantial variation in the degree of physician altruism we also discuss some implications of our results for the design of physician payment schemes in the light of the theoretical literature

precautionary principle as a rule of choice with optimism on windfall gains and pessimism on catastrophic losses abstract the paper investigates a decision making process involving both risk and ambiguity differently from existing papers basili m chateauneuf a fontini f 2005 choices under ambiguity with familiar and unfamiliar outcomes theory and decision 58 195 207 chichilnisky g 2000 axiomatic approach to choice under uncertainty with catastrophic risks resources and energy economics 22 221 231 chichilnisky g 2002 in el shaarawi a h piegorsch w w eds catastropic risks encyclopedia of environmetrics vol 1 john wiley sons ltd chichester uk pp 274 279 we assume that in a choquet expected utility framework the decision maker is pessimistic with respect to unfamiliar catastrophic losses optimistic with respect to unfamiliar windfall gains and ambiguity neutral with respect to the familiar world a representation of the decision maker s choice is obtained that mimics the restricted bayes hurwicz criterion in this way a characterization of the precautionary principle is introduced for decision making processes under ambiguity with catastrophic losses and or windfall gains

opaque trading disclosure and asset prices implications for hedge fund regulation we construct a rational expectations equilibrium model to investigate the effect of ambiguity about hedge fund strategies on market efficiency and aggregate welfare in our model some traders mutual funds view the equilibrium trading strategies of other traders hedge funds as ambiguous this ambiguity limits the ability of mutual funds to infer information from prices and affects the market performance we use this analysis to investigate the implications of regulations that affect the amount of ambiguity about hedge fund strategies or the cost of operating a hedge fund our analysis demonstrates how regulations affect asset prices and welfare through their influence on opaque trading

self confirming equilibrium rium path of play thus if a self confirming equilibrium occurs repeatedly no player ever observes play that contradicts his beliefs even though beliefs about play at off path information sets need not be correct we characterize the ways in which self confirming equilibria and nash equilibria can differ and provide conditions under which self con firming equilibria correspond to standard solution concepts nash equilibrium and its refinements describe a situation in which i each player s strategy is a best response to his beliefs about the play of his opponents and ii each player s beliefs about the opponents play are exactly correct we propose a new equilibrium concept self confirming equilibrium that weakens condition ii by requiring only that players beliefs are correct along the equilibrium path of play thus each player may have incorrect beliefs about how his opponents would play in contingencies that do not arise when play follows the equilibrium and moreover the beliefs of different players may be wrong in different ways the concept of self confirming equilibrium is motivated by the idea that noncooperative equilibria should be interpreted as the outcome of a learning process in which players revise their beliefs using their observations of previous play suppose that each time the game is played the players observe the actions chosen by their opponents but that players do not observe the actions their opponents would have played at the information sets that were not reached along the path of play then if a self confirming equilibrium occurs repeatedly no player ever observes play that contradicts his beliefs so the equilibrium is self confirming in the weak sense of not being inconsistent with the evidence by analogy with the literature on the bandit problem e g rothschild 1974 one might expect that a non nash self confirming equilibrium can be the outcome of plausible learning processes this point was made by fudenberg and

income inequality and economic freedom in the u s states this paper examines the impact of economic freedom on income inequality using cross sectional data for u s states while previous research has explored this relationship internationally the results have been conflicting in addition while it seems obvious that the large institutional differences across countries will impact income inequality it isn t so obvious that the smaller variation in policies among u s states can have a measurable impact can improvements in income inequality be used as a justification for marginal pro market policy reforms at the state level or is this argument applicable only to national level institutional reforms

willingness to pay and willingness to accept how much can they differ comment i agree with the point made by edoh y amiran and daniel a hagen 2003 that there can be a substantial or even infinite divergence between the wta and wtp for a public good even where there is a nonzero elasticity of substitution between market goods and the public good provided that the indifference curves are asymptotically bounded with respect to market goods in the manner they describe this is an important point they are also correct to point out that the elasticity of substitution is a local concept whereas their asymptotic boundedness condition applies also for discrete changes my 1991 paper used a local analysis because it was following the structure of the analysis in robert d willig 1976 and alan randall and john r stoll 1980 i wanted to show that while randall and stoll appeared to extend willig s local result on wta versus wtp from price changes to changes in the quantity of a public good the relevant elasticity was in fact different and involved the substitution elasticity as well as the income elasticity i view these points by amiran and hagen as not two separate results but essentially the same result their asymptotic boundedness condition generalizes my zero elasticity of substitution condition to discrete changes the asymptotic boundedness condition can be expressed as follows assuming a bivariate utility function u x q and given a reference point x q associated with a reference utility level u u x q there exists some q q such that for all q q there exists no x such that u x q u in other words no amount of x can substitute for the reduction in public good from q to q q in the case of a zero elasticity of substitution q q but as amiran and hagen show in their theorem 1 this is unnecessarily restrictive when dealing with a discrete reduction in q furthermore their theorem 2 can be viewed as a special case of their theorem 1 in which q 0 which makes q an essential commodity it is well known in consumer theory that the wta to avoid the loss of an essential market good is infinite their theorem 2 extends this result to the case of an essential nonmarket good but as their theorem 1 shows essentialness is not necessary for an infinite wta the boundedness condition is the key and this implies a fundamental lack of substitutability between money market goods and the public good

savage in the market we develop a behavioral axiomatic characterization of subjective expected utility seu under risk aversion given is an individual agent s behavior in the market assume a finite collection of asset purchases with corresponding prices we show that such behavior satisfies a revealed preference axiom if and only if there exists a seu model a subjective probability over states and a concave utility function over money that accounts for the given asset purchases

consumer price evaluations through choice experiments we collect experimental choice data and estimate preferences for mobile phones with a special focus on measuring consumer price evaluations when consumers face difficult choice tasks for this purpose we employ a heteroskedastic random coefficient logit model in which the variance of the extreme value error term depends on variables that affect the consistency with rational behavior of choice we specify the price of some products in the choice experiment with discount and seek to answer the question how consumers evaluate these we find evidence in our data that the prices specified with discount significantly compromise the consistency of choice copyright 2009 john wiley sons ltd

eliciting gps preferences for pecuniary and non pecuniary job characteristics abstract this study examines general practitioners preferences for pecuniary and non pecuniary job characteristics in the context of choosing a general practice in which to work a discrete choice experiment is used to test hypotheses about the nature of the utility function marginal rates of substitution between income and non pecuniary characteristics are calculated the results suggest that policies aimed at influencing general practitioners location choices should take account of both non pecuniary and pecuniary factors particularly out of hours work commitments

food scares in an uncertain world we develop a model that explains the stylized facts of food scares an immediate and sharp decline in consumption of the product followed by a slow and frequently partial recovery of demand after the scare passes the model is used in conjunction with the natural experiment afforded by the mad cow crisis to elicit empirical information on decision makers perception of uncertainty our theoretical and quantitative results suggest that observed behavior is consistent with sharp changes in beliefs and the presence of knightian uncertainty as measured by the degree of imprecision in our model

nonpecuniary rewards in the workplace demand estimates using quasi market data lack of explicit markets and associated data have impeded measurement of nonpecuniary rewards in the workplace most of the published literature employs hedonic models that permit estimation of market clearing prices but do not allow for identification of demand schedules in an alternative approach used successfully by environmental economists the author develops quasi market data and uses it to estimate demand for the nonpecuniary rewards associated with leadership in addition to price responsiveness individuals exhibit tastes for the amenities of leadership that differ substantially and in expected directions with their personal and professional characteristics copyright 1991 by mit press

fee for service payment and consultation length in general practice a work leisure trade off model for french gps this article presents an adaptation of the labour supply model applied to the independent medical sector first we model simultaneous general practitioner gp decisions on both the leisure time and the consultation length for two payment schemes fixed fees and unregulated fees the objective of this econometric study is to validate the theoretical prediction that doctors under unregulated fees may make choices about the length of patient consultations independent of their personal leisure decision indeed according to our empirical results the bidirectional link between leisure choice and consultation length verified with fixed fees does not hold any longer under unregulated fees our findings can be seen as a necessary but not a sufficient condition to legitimize unregulated fees in general practice

selfcon rming equilibrium and model uncertainty we propose to bring together two conceptually complementary ideas 1 selfcon rming equilibrium sce at rest points of learning dynamics in a game played recurrently agents best respond to con rmed beliefs i e beliefs consistent with the evidence they accumulated and 2 ambiguity aversion agents other things being equal prefer to bet on events with known rather than unknown probabilities and more generally distinguish objective from subjective uncertainty a behavioral trait captured by their ambiguity attitudes using as a workhorse the smooth ambiguity model of klibano marinacci and mukerji 2005 we provide a de nition of smooth sce which generalizes the traditional concept of fudenberg and levine 1993a b here called bayesian sce and admits waldean maxmin sce as a limit case we show that the set of equilibria expands as ambiguity aversion increases the intuition is simple by playing the same strategy in

wishful thinking in strategic environments towards developing a theory of systematic biases about strategies i analyse strategic implications of a particular bias wishful thinking about the strategies i identify a player as a wishful thinker if she hopes to enjoy the highest pay off that is consistent with her information about the others strategies i develop a straightforward elimination process that characterizes the strategy profiles that are consistent with wishful thinking mutual knowledge of wishful thinking and so on every pure strategy nash equilibrium is consistent with common knowledge of wishful thinking for generic two person games i further show that the pure nash equilibrium strategies are the only strategies that are consistent with common knowledge of wishful thinking my analysis also illustrates how one can characterize the strategic implications of general decision rules using the tools of game theory copyright 2007 wiley blackwell

economic freedom and migration flows between u s states a modified gravity model is estimated using a cross section of data drawn from the u s census bureau survey of 2000 in order to analyze the impact of economic freedom on gross migration flows among the lower 48 states spatial econometric methods are utilized in order to capture spatial effects not detected by distance in addition the economic freedom of north america index is decomposed to determine the individual impact of various policies results show that states with higher relative economic freedom experience greater migration inflow through its direct impact on income and employment growth in aggregate the findings indicate that individuals migrate toward states with relatively higher government consumption expenditures relatively lower tax burdens and states with more freedom with respect to labor decisions in the form of less restrictive minimum wages less concentration of unions and less dependence on public employment

estimating workers marginal willingness to pay for job attributes using duration data this paper develops and applies a method for estimating workers marginal willingess to pay for job attributes when workers job choices are characterized by imperfect information and labor market search as an application this paper analyzes the job durations of white males using data from the national longitudinal survey youth cohort and the dictionary of occupational titles estimates of workers willingness to pay derived from the job duration model are compared with those derived from an hedonic wage model

strategic uncertainty and equilibrium selection in discontinuous games abstract we introduce the new concept of prudent equilibrium to model strategic uncertainty and prove it exists in large classes of discontinuous games when the game is better reply secure we show that prudent equilibrium refines nash equilibrium in contrast with the current literature we don t use probabilities to model players strategies and beliefs about other players strategies we provide examples first price auctions location game nash demand game etc where prudent equilibrium concept removes most non intuitive solutions of the game

uncertainty aversion in game theory experimental evidence abstract this paper studies using a laboratory experiment the effects of uncertainty aversion the union of risk aversion and ambiguity aversion on behavior in a normal form game we isolate and identify two components of uncertainty aversion in games the effect of an agent s own uncertainty preferences and effect of the agent s beliefs regarding their opponent s uncertainty preferences uncertainty preferences are correlated with behavior in games induced beliefs about the risk preferences of an opponent have a larger effect on strategic behavior than induced beliefs about an opponent s ambiguity preferences although both components have a significant effect on behavior the results support the hypothesis that strategic uncertainty is an important determinant of strategic behavior and that the response to strategic uncertainty is modulated by subject uncertainty attitudes

using a discrete choice experiment to estimate health state utility values in this study we explored a novel application of the discrete choice experiment dce that resembles the time trade off tto task to estimate values on the health utility scale for the eq 5d the dce was tested in a survey alongside the tto in a sample of english speaking canadians recruited by a market research company the study found that the dce is able to derive logical and consistent values for health states valued on the full health dead scale the dce overcame some issues identified in the version of tto currently used to value eq 5d notably allowing for fewer data exclusions and incorporating values considered worse than dead without introducing a separate valuation procedure this has important implications for providing robust values that represent the preferences of all respondents

the value of automobile travel time implications for congestion policy abstract public policy has remained stoutly resistant to the economic profession s call to use congestion tolls to minimize the social costs from automobile congestion this paper explores this issue by using stated preference models to estimate the value that commuters are willing to pay to save travel time we find that this value is low and surprisingly insensitive to travel conditions and how toll revenues are used it appears that even high income commuters having adjusted to congestion through their modal residential workplace and departure time choices simply do not value travel time savings enough to benefit substantially from tolls

the market for sweepstakes this paper studies the market for monopolistically supplied sweepstakes we derive equilibrium demands for fixed prize and variable prize sweepstakes and determine the profit maximizing prize level and pay out ratio respectively it can be profitable to offer each type of sweepstake when there is a large enough number of weighted utility consumers who have constant absolute risk attitudes are strictly averse to small as well as symmetric risks and display longshot preference behaviour moreover for the variable prize sweepstake the supplier will generally find it profitable to combine sweepstakes targeting two smaller populations and offer a single sweepstake to the combined population this implication is corroborated by the recent spate of mergers of smaller state lotteries into larger ones

uncertainty aversion in a heterogeneous agent model of foreign exchange rate formation this paper provides what we believe to be the first empirical test of whether investors in the foreign exchange market are uncertainty averse we do this using a heterogeneous agents model in which fundamentalist and chartist beliefs of the exchange rate co exist and are allowed to be either uncertainty neutral or uncertainty averse uncertainty aversion is modelled using the maxmin expected utility approach we find significant evidence of uncertainty aversion in the fx market where in particular fundamentalists are found to be largely uncertainty neutral while chartists are mainly uncertainty averse inclusion of uncertainty averse agents significantly improves the performance of the model

nash equilibrium under knightian uncertainty breaking down backward induction abstract we define nash equilibrium for two person normal form games in the presence of knightian uncertainty using the formalization of schmeidler and gilboa we show that nash equilibrium exists for any degree of uncertainty aversion that maxmin behaviour can occur even when it is not rationalizable in the usual sense and that backward induction breaks down in the twice repeated prisoners dilemma we relate these results to the literature on cooperation in the finitely repeated prisoners dilemma and the literature on epistemological conditions underlying nash equilibrium the knowledge notion implicit in this model of equilibrium does not display logical omniscience journal of economic literature classification numbers c72 d81

ambiguity attitudes in a large representative sample using a theorem showing that matching probabilities of ambiguous events can capture ambiguity attitudes we introduce a tractable method for measuring ambiguity attitudes and apply it in a large representative sample in addition to ambiguity aversion we confirm an ambiguity component recently found in laboratory studies a insensitivity the tendency to treat subjective likelihoods as 50 50 thus overweighting extreme events our ambiguity measurements are associated with real economic decisions specifically a insensitivity is negatively related to stock market participation ambiguity aversion is also negatively related to stock market participation but only for subjects who perceive stock returns as highly ambiguous this paper was accepted by james smith decision analysis

applying regret theory to investment choices currency hedging decisions we apply regret theory an axiomatic behavioral theory to derive closed form solutions to optimal currency hedging choices investors experience regret of not having chosen the ex post optimal hedging decision hence investors anticipate their future experience of regret and incorporate it in their objective function we derive a model of financial decision making with two components of risk traditional risk volatility and regret risk we find results that are in sharp contrast with traditional expected utility loss aversion or disappointment aversion theories we discuss the empirical implications of our model and its ability to explain observed hedging behavior

optimism and pessimism in games this paper considers the impact of ambiguity in strategic situations it extends the earlier literature by allowing for optimistic responses to ambiguity ambiguity is modelled by ceu preferences we propose a new solution concept for players who may express ambiguitypreference then we study comparative statics of changes in ambiguity attitude in games with strategic complements this gives a precise statement of the impact of ambiguity on economic behaviour

decision theory under ambiguity we review recent advances in the field of decision making under uncertainty or ambiguity we start with a presentation of the general approach to a decision problem under uncertainty as well as the standard bayesian treatment and issues with this treatment we present more general approaches choquet expected utility maximin expected utility smooth ambiguity and so forth that have been developed in the literature under the name of models of ambiguity sensitive preferences we draw a distinction between fully subjective models and models incorporating explicitly some information we review definitions and characterizations of ambiguity aversion in these models we mention the challenges posed by some of the models presented we end with a review of part of the experimental literature and applications of these models to economic settings

valuing risk in the workplace market price willingness to pay and the optimal provision of safety the theory of compensating wage differentials attributable to adam smith suggests that jobs with disagreeable characteristics will command high wages ceteris paribus most empirical tests of this theory with hedonic wage equations implicitly assume that workers willingness to pay for risk reduction safety in the workplace through diminished wages and market valuations of the price of these reductions are equivalent it is shown that this is not the case within the manufacturing sector where willingness to pay exceeds the price cost of risk reduction at current levels of risk exposure implications for implied value of life estimates are also examined copyright 1990 by mit press

correlated nash equilibrium abstract we modify the epistemic conditions for nash equilibrium only to accommodate gilboa and schmeidler s i gilboa d schmeidler maxmin expected utility with nonunique prior j math econ 18 1989 141 153 maxmin expected utility preferences and identify the equilibrium concept in n player strategic games that characterizes the modified epistemic conditions the epistemic characterization supports the equilibrium concept as a minimal generalization of nash equilibrium in the sense that it deviates from nash equilibrium only in terms of players attitude towards ambiguity consequently comparing it with nash equilibrium constitutes a ceteris paribus study of the effects of ambiguity on how a game is played for example with ambiguity beliefs about action choices are in general correlated

sequential two player games with ambiguity if players beliefs are strictly non additive the dempster shafer updating rule can be used to define beliefs off the equilibrium path we define an equilibrium concept in sequential two person games where players update their beliefs with the dempster shafer updating rule we show that in the limit as uncertainty tends to zero our equilibrium approximates bayesian nash equilibrium by imposing context dependent constraints on beliefs under uncertainty

measurement of travel time values and opportunity cost from a discrete choice model section 1 of the paper introduces discrete choice models which contain elements of becker and deserpa theories section 2 outlines the concepts of quality adjusted value of travel time and the uniform or unadjusted shadow price of time sections 3 and 4 explain how values and shadow price of time can be measured using the discrete choice models described in section 2 section 5 explains the importance of the so called model specific constants in a mode choice model in the light of the empirical results of sections 3 and 4 trrl

portfolio choices and asset prices the comparative statics of ambiguity aversion we investigate the comparative statics of more ambiguity aversion as defined by klibanoff marinacci and mukerji 2005 in the context of the static two asset portfolio problem it is not true in general that more ambiguity aversion reduces the demand for the uncertain asset we exhibit some sufficient conditions to guarantee that ceteris paribus an increase in ambiguity aversion reduces the demand for the ambiguous asset and raises the equity premium for example this is the case when the set of plausible distributions of returns can be ranked according to the monotone likelihood ratio order we also show how ambiguity aversion distorts the price kernel in the alternative portfolio problem with complete markets for contingent claims

irrationality and ambiguity in extensive games abstract based on a model where deviations from equilibrium play are assumed to identify irrational players who are characterized by ambiguous set valued strategies this paper introduces an equilibrium notion for extensive games with ambiguity averse players that yields a precise interpretation for the counterfactual reasoning usually associated with backward induction the resulting equilibria are always nash equilibria but may not satisfy the conditions required for various refinements of nash equilibrium including those for subgame perfection existence of such equilibria is proved for all two player games and for n player games with perfect information