which industry is greener an empirical study of nine industries in oecd countries abstract this study analyzed the relationship between the co2 emissions of different industries and economic growth in oecd countries from 1970 to 2005 we tested an environmental kuznets curve ekc hypothesis and found that total co2 emissions from nine industries show an n shaped trend instead of an inverted u or monotonic increasing trend with increasing income the ekc hypothesis for sector level co2 emissions was supported in the 1 paper pulp and printing industry 2 wood and wood products industry and 3 construction industry we also found that emissions from coal and oil increase with economic growth in the steel and construction industries in addition the non metallic minerals machinery and transport equipment industries tend to have increased emissions from oil and electricity with economic growth finally the ekc turning point and the relationship between gdp per capita and sectoral co2 emissions differ among industries according to the fuel type used therefore environmental policies for co2 reduction must consider these differences in industrial characteristics

energy consumption and gdp causality relationship in g 7 countries and emerging markets abstract the causality relationship between energy consumption and income is a well studied topic in energy economics this paper studies the time series properties of energy consumption and gdp and reexamines the causality relationship between the two series in the top 10 emerging markets excluding china due to lack of data and g 7 countries we discover bi directional causality in argentina causality running from gdp to energy consumption in italy and korea and from energy consumption to gdp in turkey france germany and japan hence energy conservation may harm economic growth in the last four countries

another look at swedish business cycles 1861 1988 this paper considers nine long swedish macroeconomic time series whose business cycle properties were discussed by englund persson and svensson 1992 using frequency domain techniques it is found by testing that all but two of the logarithmed and differenced series are nonlinear the observed nonlinearity is characterized by star models the statistical and dynamic properties of the estimated star models are investigated using among other things parametrically estimated local or sliced spectra cyclical variation at business cycle frequencies does not seem to be constant over time for all series and it is difficult to find a swedish business cycle only two series may be regarded as having genuinely asymmetric cyclical variation standard granger noncausality tests are adapted to the nonlinear star case and the null hypothesis of noncausality is tested for pairs of series the results point at strong temporal interactions between series they also indicate that the assumption of functional form linear or star strongly affects the outcome of these pairwise tests

disaggregated energy consumption and gdp in taiwan a threshold co integration analysis abstract energy consumption growth is much higher than economic growth for taiwan in recent years worsening its energy efficiency this paper provides a solid explanation by examining the equilibrium relationship between gdp and disaggregated energy consumption under a non linear framework the threshold co integration test developed with asymmetric dynamic adjusting processes proposed by hansen and seo hansen b e seo b 2002 testing for two regime threshold cointegration in vector error correction models journal of econometrics 110 293 318 is applied non linear co integrations between gdp and disaggregated energy consumptions are confirmed except for oil consumption the two regime vector error correction models vecm show that the adjustment process of energy consumption toward equilibrium is highly persistent when an appropriately threshold is reached there is mean reverting behavior when the threshold is reached making aggregate and disaggregated energy consumptions grow faster than gdp in taiwan

a dynamic structural model for stock return volatility and trading volume an examination is made of an adaptive beliefs model that is able to roughly reproduce the following features seen in the data 1 the autocorrelation functions of the volatility of returns and trading volume are positive with slowly decaying tails 2 the cross correlation function of volatility is approximately zero for squared returns with past and future volumes and is positive for squared returns with current volumes 3 abrupt changes in prices and returns occur that are hard to attach to news the last feature is obtained because the law of large numbers can fail in the large economy limit

predicting u s business cycle regimes this article examines the use of logistic classification methods for the identification and prediction of postwar u s business cycle expansion and contraction regimes as defined by the national bureau of economic research nber reference turning point dates we present a coherent theoretical framework for this task using measures of discriminatory information the analysis encompasses model selection parameter estimation and classification decision rules we examine the performance of logistic procedures in reproducing the nber regime classifications and in predicting one and three months ahead using leading indicator variables our models are shown to provide substantially more accurate business cycle regime predictions than markov switching specifications

tests for symmetric and asymmetric nonlinear mean reversion in real exchange rates new tests based on smooth transition autoregressive models for mean reversion in time series of real exchange rates are proposed one test forces mean reversion to be symmetric about the integrated process central case while the other permits asymmetry the tests are applied to monthly series of seventeen real exchange rates against the u s dollar and fourteen against the deutsche mark they reveal stronger evidence against the unit root null hypothesis than does the usual dickey fuller test

a meta analysis of the effects of remittances on household education expenditure abstract as a source of income remittances can be spent on consumption and investment the aim of this study is to quantify the effect of remittances on investment in education do remittances increase household education expenditure to answer this question we apply meta regression analysis to 1343 estimates of this effect drawn from 73 studies covering 30 countries our findings confirm the importance of economic resources to educational choices when the evidence base is corrected for sample selection reverse causality and research design differences the incidence of international remittances increases education expenditure by about 35 in most countries and by about 53 in latin america though remittances have no effect in eastern europe and east asia remittances from domestic migration have smaller effects on education expenditure than international remittances we find no differences in the effect between males and females

analysis of south korea s economic growth carbon dioxide emission and energy consumption using the markov switching model abstract recently many countries have been making an effort to reduce their carbon dioxide co2 emission and as part of such effort the united nations framework convention on climate change unfccc adopted the kyoto protocol in 1997 south korea is very likely to be included in the second batch of countries that must reduce their greenhouse gas emission after the end of the implementation of the kyoto protocol in 2012 reducing the country s co2 emission however can have an impact on the economy therefore in this study the correlations between south korea s economic growth co2 emission and energy consumption were analyzed the analysis period was from q1 1991 to q4 2011 and the analysis methods that were used were regression analysis for the relational analysis among the various overall indices and the markov switching model for a more detailed analysis the results of the analyses showed that south korea s economic growth and co2 emission were coincidental the correlation analysis of the country s economic growth and energy consumption showed a significant correlation between economic growth and fossil fuels which emit co2 such as coal in the industrial sector petroleum products in the industrial and transportation sectors and liquefied natural gas lng in the residential commercial and industrial sectors it is expected that the results of this study will pave the way for the conduct of various researches on controlling the country s co2 emission management and for suggestions for such to be given such as policies for reducing the energy consumption in each sector using the methodology proposed in this study

meta analysis of economics research reporting guidelines meta regression analysis mra can provide objective and comprehensive summaries of economics research their use has grown rapidly over the last few decades to improve transparency and to raise the quality of mra the meta analysis of economics research network maer net has created the below reporting guidelines future meta analyses in economics will be expected to follow these guidelines or give valid reasons why a meta analysis must deviate from them

predicting u s recessions financial variables as leading indicators this paper examines the out of sample performance of various financial variables as predictors of u s recessions series such as interest rates and spreads stock prices and monetary aggregates are evaluated individually and in comparison with other financial and nonfinancial indicators the analysis focuses on out of sample performance from one to eight quarters ahead results show that stock prices are useful with one to three quarter horizons as are some well known macroeconomic indicators beyond one quarter however the slope of the yield curve emerges as the clear individual choice and typically performs better by itself out of sample than in conjunction with other variables

causal relationship between energy consumption and gdp revisited the case of korea 1970 1999 abstract causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth is investigated applying a multivariate model of capital labor energy and gdp usual btu energy aggregate is substituted with a divisia aggregate in an attempt to mitigate aggregation bias to test for granger causality in the presence of cointegration among the variables we employ a vector error correction model rather than a vector autoregressive model empirical results for korea over the period 1970 1999 suggest a long run bidirectional causal relationship between energy and gdp and short run unidirectional causality running from energy to gdp the source of causation in the long run is found to be the error correction terms in both directions

market definition in antitrust analysis a regression based approach alleged violations of either sherman 2 s antimonopoly strictures or clayton 7 s proscriptions against anticompetitive mergers necessarily involve a particular product and must occur in a particular place that is the plaintiff in either a 2 or 7 suit must define a relevant market within which the violation alleged has occurred even in the most mundane antitrust analysis however market definition is rarely readily accomplished and unaccompanied by a series of caveats and the possibility of the opposing parties in an antitrust suit failing to contest each other s proffered definition is virtually nil 2 because economists from

are economic time series asymmetric over the business cycle it has long been argued that major cyclical variables such as the unemployment rate display an asymmetric behavior over various phases of the business cycle the paper provides a statistical test for this hypothesis using the framework of finite state markov processes i implement a test to see if the behavior of the unemployment rate is characterized by sudden jumps and slower drops it is argued that the framework provided in the paper can also be used to test other sample path properties of economic time series

measurement of environmentally sensitive productivity growth in korean industries this study measures productivity growth using the metafrontier malmquist luenberger productivity growth index mml index method and decomposes the index the results are compared with those obtained from the conventional malmquist luenberger ml productivity growth index mml has two advantages compared with the ml index the former is able to consider undesirable output as a by product of production which accounts for producer group heterogeneities as a result it enables separation and estimation of changes in the technological gap between regional and global frontier technologies the proposed index is employed to measure productivity growth and decompose its components in 14 korean industrial sectors during the period between 1981 and 2007 for the purpose of detailed analysis of policy effects the study period was divided into three decades the results show that technology innovation can be regarded as a more important factor of productivity growth rather than efficiency change the chemical and petrochemical machinery and transport equipment industries are treated as global innovators in the whole period however the result differs according to decades it is found that the groups with higher energy efficient technology and profitability obtain a higher productivity growth rate in comparison with their low energy efficient technology industry counterparts policy implications of the empirical results are discussed

characterizing nonlinearities in business cycles using smooth transition autoregressive models during the past few years investigators have found evidence indicating that various time series representing business cycles such as production and unemployment may be nonlinear in this paper it is assumed that if the time series is nonlinear then it can be adequately described by a smooth transition autoregressive star model the paper describes the application of these models to quarterly logarithmic production indices for 13 countries and europe tests reject linearity for most of these series and estimated star models indicate that the nonlinearity is needed mainly to describe the responses of production to large negative shocks such as oil price shocks

decomposition of the environmental inefficiency of the meta frontier with undesirable output abstract in this paper we present an alternative analysis framework to evaluate the effects of technology heterogeneities and undesirable output on environmental efficiency measurement the proposed framework combines the directional distance function and a meta frontier analysis it can be used to measure efficiency improvements brought about by enhanced technical management and technological advances for demonstration purposes we used the framework to measure the environmental efficiency in 90 countries worldwide for the 2003 2007 period the results showed that when the meta technology set is used as the evaluation basis the average environmental efficiency of high competitiveness countries is greater than that of lower middle low and upper middle competitiveness countries the upper middle competitiveness countries perform worse than the lower middle and low competitiveness countries because of the excessive labor force usage and carbon dioxide emissions in these countries we also found that the environmental inefficiency of the meta frontier for high competitiveness countries can be attributed to managerial failure in the production process whereas that for upper middle lower middle and low competitiveness countries can be attributed to technological differences

world oil and agricultural commodity prices evidence from nonlinear causality abstract the increasing co movements between the world oil and agricultural commodity prices have renewed interest in determining price transmission from oil prices to those of agricultural commodities this study extends the literature on the oil agricultural commodity prices nexus which particularly concentrates on nonlinear causal relationships between the world oil and three key agricultural commodity prices corn soybeans and wheat to this end the linear causality approach of toda yamamoto and the nonparametric causality method of diks panchenko are applied to the weekly data spanning from 1994 to 2010 the linear causality analysis indicates that the oil prices and the agricultural commodity prices do not influence each other which supports evidence on the neutrality hypothesis in contrast the nonlinear causality analysis shows that i there are nonlinear feedbacks between the oil and the agricultural prices and ii there is a persistent unidirectional nonlinear causality running from the oil prices to the corn and to the soybeans prices the findings from the nonlinear causality analysis therefore provide clues for better understanding the recent dynamics of the agricultural commodity prices and some policy implications for policy makers farmers and global investors this study also suggests the directions for future studies

do oil consumption and economic growth intensify environmental degradation evidence from developing economies the purpose of this article is to empirically investigate the impact of economic growth oil consumption financial development industrialization and trade openness on carbon dioxide co2 emissions particularly in relation to major oil consuming developing economies this study utilizes annual data from 1980 to 2012 on a panel of 18 developing countries our empirical analysis employs robust panel cointegration tests and a vector error correction model vecm framework the empirical results of three panel cointegration models suggest that there is a significant long run equilibrium relationship among economic growth oil consumption financial development industrialization trade openness and co2 emissions similarly results from vecms show that economic growth oil consumption and industrialization have a short run dynamic bidirectional feedback relationship with co2 emissions long run error correction term bidirectional causalities are found among co2 emissions economic growth oil consumption

the relationship between co2 emissions and economic growth the case of korea with nonlinear evidence abstract using star models we investigate the nonlinear dynamic properties and the interdependence of co2 emissions and economic growth for korea the estimation results indicate that the growth rate of both co2 emissions and industrial production exhibit a significant nonlinear asymmetric dynamics while the linear granger causality test finds no causality in any direction the results of the nonlinear granger causality tests show a two way causality between co2 emissions and economic growth the strong mutual causation between co2 emissions and economic activities indicates that the economic impact from co2 mitigation is expected to be higher in korea this suggests that the appropriate energy and environmental policy be to mitigate co2 emissions while having less impact on the economy

economic growth and energy consumption revisited evidence from linear and nonlinear granger causality the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth is considered as an imperative issue in energy economics previous studies have ignored the nonlinear behavior which could be caused by structural breaks in this study both linear and nonlinear granger causality tests are applied to examine the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth for a sample of asian newly industrialized countries as well as the u s this study finds evidence supporting a neutrality hypothesis for the united states thailand and south korea however empirical evidence on philippines and singapore reveals a unidirectional causality running from economic growth to energy consumption while energy consumption may have affected economic growth for taiwan hong kong malaysia and indonesia policy implications are also discussed

nonlinearities and nonstationarities in stock returns this article addresses the question of whether recent findings of nonlinearities in high frequency financial time series have been contaminated by possible shifts in the distribution of the data it applies a recursive version of the brock dechert scheinkman statistic to daily data on two stock market indexes between january 1980 and december 1990 it is shown that october 1987 is highly influential in the characterization of the stock market dynamics and appears to correspond to a shift in the distribution of stock returns sampling experiments show that simple linear processes with shifts in variance can replicate the behavior of the tests but autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic filters are unable to do so

structural breaks energy consumption and economic growth revisited evidence from taiwan abstract this paper studies the stability between energy consumption and gdp for taiwan during 1954 2003 we use aggregate as well as various disaggregate data of energy consumption including coal oil gas and electricity to employ the unit root tests and the cointegration tests allowing for structural breaks our main findings are first though gas consumption seems to have structural breaks in the 1960s after considering the structural breaks the series is a stationary variable when taiwan adopted its expansionary export trade policy second we find that different directions of causality exist between gdp and various kinds of energy consumption the empirical result shows unanimously in the long run that energy acts as an engine of economic growth and that energy conservation may harm economic growth third the cointegration between energy consumption and gdp is unstable and some economic events may affect the stability overall we do find the structural breakpoints and they look to match clearly with the corresponding critical economic incidents

impact of income inequality and environmental regulation on environmental quality evidence from china abstract china s environmental pollution is of widespread concern and environmental governance has become the country s main method of achieving high quality development environmental quality is a comprehensive indicator which includes many factors such as air water and solid waste pollution this study did not use a single pollutant as a substitute variable for environmental quality firstly we used principal component analysis to construct a comprehensive environmental quality index secondly the stochastic impacts by regression on population affluence and technology and panel quantile regression models were used with data from 30 chinese provinces in china from 1998 to 2017 to analyze the effect of income inequality and environmental regulation on environmental quality the constructed comprehensive index revealed that china s environmental quality had an m type trend over time the mean regression results showed that income inequality and environmental regulation improved environmental quality but higher income inequality reduced environmental quality the panel quantile regression model results revealed that the coefficient of income inequality was positively significant at the 10 30 quantiles and negatively significant at the 70 90 quantiles the coefficients of the absolute value of income inequality at the 10 30 quantiles were less than those at the 70 90 quantiles this implied that higher income inequality reduced environmental quality whereas higher environmental regulations improved environmental quality considering the possible impact of environmental quality on income inequality and environmental regulations we designed a simultaneous equation model to overcome the deviation caused by bilateral causality the conclusions of this study provide policymakers with a new perspective on environmental governance and new paths for achieving high quality development

regional differences in the dynamic linkage between co2 emissions sectoral output and economic growth environmental degradation measured by co2 emissions is a significant challenge to sustainable economic development owing to significant differences in the empirical relationship between the economic growth and co2 emissions and policies adopted by different countries to overcome the challenge are not decisive this study aims to generalize our knowledge about the relationship between co2 emissions per capita and economic growth across the world for 1980 2009 periods besides it explores whether the transformation of different economies e g agrarian to industrial and industrial to sophisticated service economy over the past few decades yielded any significant positive impact towards sustainable economic development by reducing the level of co2 emission empirical results suggest that i except for high income countries environmental kuznets curve ekc is a general phenomenon across the world and ii the transformation of different economies towards a service economy has produced more pollution in high income countries and less pollution in low and middle income countries