the dynamic relationship between the us gdp imports and domestic production of crude oil this article investigates the dynamic relationship between crude oil imports gross domestic product gdp and domestic crude oil production of the united states using a vector error correction model estimation generalized impulse response functions persistence profile and variance decompositions this article results suggest that the gdp has a leading role in determining oil imports

co2 emissions energy consumption economic growth and financial development in gcc countries dynamic simultaneous equation models abstract this study investigates the dynamic causal relationships among carbon emissions financial development economic growth and energy consumption for gulf cooperation council gcc countries from 1980 through 2011 annual time series data and an autoregressive distributed lag ardl model are used the main contribution of this paper is that it has investigated the causes of carbon emissions by taking into account the role of financial development and economic growth in gcc countries the results suggest long run and causal relationships among carbon emissions financial development gross domestic product gdp and energy use in all gcc countries except united arab emirates uae moreover there is long run unidirectional causality running from carbon emissions to energy use in the case of saudi arabia uae and qatar furthermore a one way causal relationship from financial development to carbon emissions in the context of uae oman and kuwait is found the evidence suggests that financial systems should take into account environmental aspects in their current operations in these countries the results of this study may be of great importance for policy and decision makers in developing energy policies for gcc countries that contribute to curbing carbon emissions while preserving economic growth

electricity consumption and economic growth in south africa a trivariate causality test abstract in this paper we examine the causal relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in south africa we incorporate the employment rate as an intermittent variable in the bivariate model between electricity consumption and economic growth thereby creating a simple trivariate causality framework our empirical results show that there is a distinct bidirectional causality between electricity consumption and economic growth in south africa in addition the results show that employment in south africa granger causes economic growth the results apply irrespective of whether the causality is estimated in the short run or in the long run formulation the study therefore recommends that policies geared towards the expansion of the electricity infrastructure should be intensified in south africa in order to cope with the increasing demand exerted by the country s strong economic growth and rapid industrialisation programme this will certainly enable the country to avoid unprecedented power outages similar to those experienced in the country in mid january 2008

energy consumption and economic growth nexus in tanzania an ardl bounds testing approach abstract in this paper we examine the intertemporal causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in tanzania during the period of 1971 2006 unlike the majority of the previous studies we employ the newly developed autoregressive distributed lag ardl bounds testing approach by pesaran et al 2001 bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships journal of applied econometrics 16 289 326 to examine this linkage we also use two proxies of energy consumption namely total energy consumption per capita and electricity consumption per capita the results of the bounds test show that there is a stable long run relationship between each of the proxies of energy consumption and economic growth the results of the causality test on the other hand show that there is a unidirectional causal flow from total energy consumption to economic growth and a prima facie causal flow from electricity consumption to economic growth overall the study finds that energy consumption spurs economic growth in tanzania

determinants of electricity consumption function in pakistan old wine in a new bottle abstract the objective of the study is to re investigate the multivariate electricity consumption function for pakistan particularly economic growth foreign direct investment and population growth over a 36 year time period i e between 1975 and 2010 the study employed the bounds testing procedure for cointegration which examines the short run and long run estimates dynamic short run causality test is applied to determine the causality direction between electricity consumption and its determinants by using wald f statistics the results reveal that determinants of electricity consumption function are cointegrated and influx of foreign direct investment income and population growth is positively related to electricity consumption in pakistan however the intensity of these determinants is different on electricity consumption if there is 1 increase in income foreign direct investment and population growth electricity consumption increases by 0 973 0 056 and 1 605 respectively this infers that income foreign direct investment and population growth induce an increase in electricity consumption in pakistan dynamic short run causality test indicates that there has been unidirectional causality which is running from population growth to electricity consumption in pakistan

is the energy led growth hypothesis valid new evidence from a sample of 85 countries abstract the energy growth literature contains a large number of discussions on the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth the central debate focuses on whether energy consumption contributes or not to economic growth since it has direct implications for the formulation of strategic policies nevertheless current studies cannot provide a conclusive suggestion due to mixed causality results this inconclusive evidence is potentially attributed to model specifications and the stage of economic development of the countries under investigation hence this study attempts to empirically re investigate the validity of the energy led growth hypothesis using a different model specification and different stages of economic development for 85 selected countries around the globe overall although the causality results are mixed among countries we do find a systematic pattern in particular granger causality models with three and four variables are more likely to support the hypothesis compared to their counterparts that contain only two variables in addition both developed and developing countries are more likely to support the energy led growth hypothesis compared to the less developed or low income countries therefore causality results are very sensitive to the choice of the model specification along with the stages of economic development finally energy conservation policies should only focus on low income countries as these policies may not retard the process of economic growth

robust monetary rules under unstructured model uncertainty abstract this paper revisits a widely adopted approach to robust decision making developed by hansen and sargent 2003 hansen and sargent 2008 henceforth hs and applies it to monetary policy design in the face of model uncertainty we pay particular attention to two issues first we distinguish three possible forms of the implied game between malign nature and the policymaker in the hs procedure each leading to a different robust and approximating equilibria second we impose the zero lower bound zlb constraint on the nominal interest rate we show that the zlb constraint has serious consequences for a policymaker pursuing hs type robustness especially when accompanied by an inability to commit

the impacts of transport energy consumption foreign direct investment and income on co2 emissions in asean 5 economies abstract in this study we incorporate new variables and assess the impact of transportation sector s energy consumption and foreign direct investment on co2 emissions for asean 5 economies using the cointegration and granger causality methods this study also attempts to validate the environmental kuznets curve ekc hypothesis our results reveal that the co2 emissions and their determinants are co integrated only in indonesia malaysia and thailand the long run elasticity estimation suggests that income and transport energy consumption significantly influence co2 emissions whereas fdi is not significant economic growth plays a greater role in contributing to co2 emission in asean 5 nonetheless we find that the inverted u shape ekc hypothesis is not applicable to the asean 5 economies especially in indonesia malaysia and thailand in the long run the bi directional causality between economic growth and co2 emissions is detected in indonesia and thailand while we find unidirectional causality running from gdp to co2 emissions in malaysia we also observe bi directional causality between transport energy consumption fdi and co2 emissions in thailand and malaysia as an immediate policy option controlling energy consumption in transportation sector may result in a significant reduction in co2 emissions however this may slow the process of economic growth in malaysia and indonesia alternatively we suggest policymakers to place more emphasis on energy efficient transportation system and policies to minimise fossil fuel consumption thus the quality of environment can be improved with less deleterious impact on economic growth

electricity supply employment and real gdp in india evidence from cointegration and granger causality tests abstract this study probes nexus between electricity supply employment and real gdp for india within a multivariate framework using autoregressive distributed lag ardl bounds testing approach of cointegration long run equilibrium relationship has been established among these variables for the time span 1970 71 to 2005 06 the study further establishes long and short run granger causality running from real gdp and electricity supply to employment without any feedback effect thus growth in real gdp and electricity supply are responsible for the high level of employment in india the absence of causality running from electricity supply to real gdp implies that electricity demand and supply side measures can be adopted to reduce the wastage of electricity which would not affect future economic growth of india

solution of macromodels with hansen sargent robust policies some extensions abstract we summarize some methods useful in formulating and solving hansen sargent robust control problems and suggest extensions to discretion and simple rules matlab octave and gauss software is provided we illustrate these extensions with applications to the term structure of interest rates the time inconsistency of optimal monetary policy the effects of expectations on the variances of inflation and output and on whether central banks should make their forecasts public

indicators for sustainable energy development a multivariate cointegration and causality analysis from tunisian road transport sector this paper studies causal mechanism between indicators for sustainable energy development related to energy consumption from tunisian road transport sector the investigation is made using the johansen cointegration technique and the environmental kuznets curve ekc approach it examines the nexus between transport value added road transport related energy consumption road infrastructure fuel price and co2 emissions from tunisian transport sector during the period of 1980 2010 empirical results show that road transport related energy consumption transport value added transport co2 emissions and road infrastructure are mutually causal in the long run these results do not support the hypothesis of neutrality between energy and income for the tunisian road transport sector also there is a unidirectional causality running from fuel price to road transport related energy consumption with no feedback in both the short and long runs the fuel price and the road infrastructure are significant in the causal chain though the estimated long run cointegrated equation we conclude that there is an inverse n shaped relation between transport value added and transport co2 emissions with income turning point respectively equal to 75 and 579 constant 2000 tnd prices therefore our empirical findings refute the hypothesis of an inverted u shaped ekc for transport co2 emissions in tunisia the findings of this study have a number of policy implications economic growth environmental degradation energy and transportation policies should be recognized in order to improve the energy efficiency in transport sector all measures that should reduce petroleum consumption and greenhouse gas emissions without affecting economic growth may be undertaken the policymakers in tunisia should plan urban transport relocate production units improve fuel efficient vehicles and reinforce legislation on controlling emissions in order to copying with policies based on low carbon development and climate resilient strategies

energy consumption real income and temporal causality results from a multi country study based on cointegration and error correction modelling techniques abstract unlike previous studies on the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth this paper illustrates how the finding of cointegration i e long term equilibrium relationship between these variables may be used in testing granger causality based on the most recent johansen s multivariate cointegration tests preceded by various unit root or non stationarity tests we test for cointegration between total energy consumption and real income of six asian economies india pakistan malaysia singapore indonesia and the philippines non rejection of cointegration between variables rules out granger non causality and imples at least one way of granger causality either unidirectional or bidirectionial secondly by using a dynamic vector error correction model we then analyse the direction of granger causation and hence the within sample granger exogeneity or endogeneity of each of the variables thirdly the relative strength of the causality is gauged through the dynamic variance decomposition technique by decomposing the total impact of an unanticipated shock to each of the variables beyond the sample period into proportions attributable to shocks in the other variables including its own in the bivariate system results based on these tools of methodology indicate that while all pair wise relationships shared common univariate integrational properties only relationships for three countries india pakistan and indonesia were cointegrated for these countries temporal causality results were mixed with unidirectional causality from energy to income for india exactly the reverse for indonesia and mutual causality for pakistan the vdcs were not inconsistent with these results and provided us with an additional insight as to the relatively more dominant direction of causation in pakistan simple bivariate vector autoregressive models for the three non cointegrated systems did not indicate any direction of causality significantly in either direction

co integration and error correction models the temporal causality between government taxes and spending several interesting papers have recently considered whether government taxes granger cause government spending or vice versa the findings based on standard granger 6 causality tests are not consistent manage and marlow 10 conclude that when evidence of one way causality exists federal taxes granger cause federal spending while anderson wallace and warner 1 conclude that the evidence supports one way causality in the opposite direction ram 11 reexamining the issue concludes that taxes granger cause spending at the federal level but that spending granger causes taxes at the state and local level von furstenberg green and jeong 13 in another related article examine the tax and spend spend and tax causality issue using a more general vector autoregressive var model they introduce in addition to federal taxes and spending two economic variables the gnp gap and the inflation rate decompose federal spending into several categories and remove the effects of automatic stabilizers when appropriate they find little evidence that taxes granger cause spending and limited evidence that spending causes taxes a finding which corresponds most closely to that of anderson wallace and warner 1 our purpose is to reconsider the causality issue with the aid of co integration and errorcorrection modeling our analysis illustrates with a specific example how sources of causality can be neglected in standard granger causality tests moreover addressing the question of temporal causality between government taxes and spending provides insight as to how different policies might or might not help control the growth of government the results of our estimating various co integration and error correction models with quarterly data suggest bi directional causality between government taxes and spending both for the federal and state and local sectors this finding counters the conclusions of previous studies when annual data are used however our

probability models and robust policy rules abstract we consider sims s 2008 argument that robust policy making requires that policy models be treated as probability models in a welfare based setting we estimate by bayesian methods a number of variants of a new keynesian macroeconomic model and use both the model odds and posterior densities to design robust interest rate rules consisting of an inflation forecast based rule and a wage targeting one each are shown to have distinct robustness qualities and distinct implications for the probability models approach to ensure feasible policy we further impose that rules are stable determinate and lower bound compatible our results have important implications for the design evaluation and analysis of the probability models approach to robust monetary policy making

firm size and the nature of innovation within industries the case of process and product r d the effect of firm size on the allocation of r d effort between process and product innovation is examined it is hypothesized that relative to product innovations process innovations are less saleable in disembodied form and spawn less growth this implies that the returns to process r d will depend more on the firm s output at the time it conducts its r d than the returns to product r d incorporating this distinction in a simple model the authors derive and test predictions about how the fraction of r d devoted to process innovation varies with firm size within industries

lag length selection and tests of granger causality between money and income one of the most widely accepred relationships in macroeconomics is the positive relationship between the rate of growth of the money supply and the rate of growth of income a diversity of opinion arises however with the attempt to identify a causal relationship between these variables while friedman and schwartz 1963 initiated the empirical investigation of money income causality sims 1972 made the most significant contribution to this literature with a practical application of the criterion developed by granger 1969 for identifying a causal relationship since the appearance of sims s approach and an alternative one advanced by sargent 1976 many researchers have applied these techniques to the investigation of the causal relationship between money and income l with two exceptions hsiao 1981 and mcmillin and fackler 1984 these researchers have arbitrarily chosen the lengths of their distributed lags the purpose of this paper is to test for granger causality between money and income this paper differs from previous work in that considerably more attention is focused on the effect of the lag specification on the test results in particular we investigate the extent to which rules of thumb arbitrary lag specifications and

the response of real exchange rates to various economic shocks substantial fluctuations in real exchange rates i e deviations from purchasing power parity ppp which closely mirror movements in nominal rates have been one of the most notable international economic events since the breakdown of the bretton woods system dornbusch s disequilibrium theory 9 which presumes different speeds of adjustment in assets and goods markets offers an explanation for temporary deviations from ppp only models assuming ppp as a long run relationship have not been successful in interpreting the movements of the real exchange rates although studies conducted for countries experiencing high or hyper inflation provide evidence favoring ppp 42 30 29 the empirical evidence on ppp for industrialized low inflation countries is not generally favorable 1 this is consistent with the view that ppp may hold better in high inflation countries where the disturbances to their economies are mostly monetary in origin 31 123 24 but ppp may not hold well when the real disturbances which change equilibrium relative prices dominate statistical evidence indicates that the real exchange rates of many countries are likely to be nonstationary or have long memory that is changes in the real values of many currencies tend to persist for very long period of time this persistence implies that fluctuations in the real exchange rates are largely due to long lasting effect of real disturbances after revealing that ppp does not hold as a long run concept for several exchange rates flynn and boucher 12 121 suggest that one possible explanation is that there are time varying real factors that are omitted from the ppp relationship there are several well established reasons why the real exchange rates may change in response to real disturbances in the first place permanent exogenous shocks to the tradable sector of the economy call for changes in competitiveness for instance a rise in the real price of oil will worsen the balance of trade position of a net oil importing country and therefore call for a real depreciation of the currency of the country in order to improve its competitive position 32 second when countries are growing at different rates productivity bias will typically result in

innovations and r d in northern ireland manufacturing a schumpeterian approach harris r and trainor m 1995 innovations and r d in northern ireland manufacturing a schumpeterian approach reg studies 29 593 604 given the importance of r d and innovative outputs and the change in regional policy in the 1980s to encourage an enterprise culture based inter alia on a high rate of innovations this paper attempts to explain the determinants of inventive activities in one of the most disadvantaged regions of the united kingdom a model incorporating the impact of market structure is estimated and it is found that in northern ireland higher r d spending leads to a higher probability of innovating while r d itself is positively affected by higher post innovation price cost margins thus r d spending and innovation outputs are beneficial to profitability and thus presumably the long term growth of firms however while market structure is important the direct effects of monopoly power are if anything negative thus the results presented by geroski 1990 are support

robust control with commitment a modification to hansen sargent i examine the hansen and sargent 2003 robust control of forward looking models journal of monetary economics 50 581 604 formulation of the robust stackelberg problem and show that their method of constructing the approximating equilibrium is generally invalid i then turn to the hansen and sargent 2007 robustness manuscript version dated march 22 2007 treatment which responding to the problems raised in this paper changes subtly but importantly how the robust stackelberg problem is formulated in the context of hansen and sargent 2007 robustness manuscript version dated march 22 2007 i prove first that their method for obtaining the approximating equilibrium is now equivalent to the one developed in this paper and second that the worst case specification errors are not subject to a time consistency problem in the context of the erceg et al 2000 optimal monetary policy with staggered wage and price contracts journal of monetary economics 46 281 313 sticky wage sticky price model i find that a robust central bank will fear primarily that the supply side of its approximating model is misspecified and that robustness affects importantly central bank promises about future policy

an investigation of co integration and causality between energy consumption and economic activity in taiwan applying hsiao a version of the granger causality method this paper examines the causality between energy and gnp and energy and employment by applying recently developed techniques of co integration and hsiao s version of the granger causality to taiwanese data for the 1955 1993 period the phillips perron tests reveal that the series with the exception of gnp are not stationary and therefore differencing is performed to secure stationarity the study finds causality running from gdp to energy consumption without feedback in taiwan it is also found that causality runs from gdp to energy but not vice versa

electricity consumption and economic growth nexus in portugal using cointegration and causality approaches the aim of this paper is to re examine the relationship between electricity consumption economic growth and employment in portugal using the cointegration and granger causality frameworks this study covers the sample period from 1971 to 2009 we examine the presence of a long run equilibrium relationship using the bounds testing approach to cointegration within the unrestricted error correction model uecm moreover we examine the direction of causality between electricity consumption economic growth and employment in portugal using the granger causality test within the vector error correction model vecm as a summary of the empirical findings we find that electricity consumption economic growth and employment in portugal are cointegrated and there is bi directional granger causality between the three variables in the long run with the exception of the granger causality between electricity consumption and economic growth the rest of the variables are also bi directional granger causality in the short run furthermore we find that there is unidirectional granger causality running from economic growth to electricity consumption but no evidence of reversal causality

if you cannot block you better run small firms cooperative innovation and appropriation strategies abstract this empirical study examines small firms strategies for capturing returns to investments in innovation we find that small firms strategies are qualitatively different from those found in earlier studies of both small and large firms most of the small firms examined here find informal means of protection such as speed to market or secrecy more important than patenting only firms with university cooperation typically r d intensive and science based small firms were likely to identify patents as the most important method of appropriating innovation returns in their field thus the strategic choice for most small firms is between secrecy and speed to market firms that cooperate in innovation with horizontal partners or significantly depend on vertical partners tend to prefer speed whereas process innovators with modest r d investments or few cooperative r d activities display a preference for trade secrets indeed cooperation activities greatly influence the choice of intellectual property strategy for small firms earlier research has emphasized patents and trade secrets as key strategies of appropriation yet these strategies do not appear to be very beneficial for small firms engaged in cooperative innovation these results raise policy questions regarding the functionality of the existing system of intellectual property rights

energy consumption prices and economic growth in three ssa countries a comparative study in this paper we examine the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in three sub saharan african countries namely south africa kenya and congo drc we incorporate prices as an intermittent variable in a bivariate setting between energy consumption and economic growth thereby creating a simple trivariate framework using the ardl bounds testing procedure we find that the causality between energy consumption and economic growth varies significantly across the countries under study the results show that for south africa and kenya there is a unidirectional causal flow from energy consumption to economic growth however for congo drc it is economic growth that drives energy consumption these findings have important policy implications insofar as energy conservation policies are concerned in the case of congo drc for example the implementation of energy conservation policies may not significantly affect economic growth because the country s economy is not entirely energy dependent however for south africa and kenya there is a need for more energy supply augmentations in order to cope with the long run energy demand in the short run however the two countries should explore more efficient and cost effective sources of energy in order to address the energy dependency problem

electricity consumption employment and real income in australia evidence from multivariate granger causality tests this paper examines the relationship between electricity consumption employment and real income in australia within a cointegration and causality framework we find that electricity consumption employment and real income are cointegrated and that in the long run employment and real income granger cause electricity consumption while in the short run there is weak unidirectional granger causality running from income to electricity consumption and from income to employment

discretionary monetary policy and the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates abstract ignoring the existence of the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates one considerably understates the value of monetary commitment in new keynesian models a stochastic forward looking model with an occasionally binding lower bound calibrated to the u s economy suggests that low values for the natural rate of interest lead to sizeable output losses and deflation under discretionary monetary policy the fall in output and deflation are much larger than in the case with policy commitment and do not show up at all if the model abstracts from the existence of the lower bound the welfare losses of discretionary policy increase even further when inflation is partly determined by lagged inflation in the phillips curve these results emerge because private sector expectations and the discretionary policy response to these expectations reinforce each other and cause the lower bound to be reached much earlier than under commitment

how important is precommitment for monetary policy we quantify the welfare differential between precommitment and discretionary monetary policy in three estimated models of the u s economy by calculating the permanent deviation of inflation from target that in welfare terms is equivalent to moving from discretion to precommitment using a range of reasonable central bank preference parameters this inflation equivalent ranges from 0 05 to 3 6 percentage points with a mid point of either 0 15 or 1 1 5 percentage points depending on the model in addition to the degree of forward looking behavior we show that the existence of transmission lags and or information lags is crucial for determining the welfare gain from precommitment

solution and estimation of re macromodels with optimal policy macro models of monetary policy typically involve forward looking behavior except in rare circumstances we have to apply some numerical method to find the optimal policy and the rational expectations equilibrium this paper summarizes a few useful methods and shows how they can be combined with a kalman filter to estimate the deep model parameters with maximum likelihood simulations of a macro model with staggered price setting interest rate elastic output and optimal monetary policy illustrate the properties of this estimation approach

the electricity consumption versus economic growth of the polish economy abstract the aim of this contribution is an investigation of causal interdependences between electricity consumption and gdp in poland our research was conducted for total electricity consumption as well as for the industrial consumption of electricity in order to reflect the causality between gdp and electricity consumption properly we performed our investigations in a three dimensional framework with employment chosen as an additional variable we used reliable quarterly data from the period q1 2000 q4 2009 in order to check the stability of the causalities the investigations were performed on two samples a full sample and a pre crisis i e q1 2000 q3 2008 subsample we applied both traditional methods and some recently developed econometric tools we found feedback between total electricity consumption and gdp as well as between total electricity consumption and employment we also found unidirectional causality running from industrial electricity consumption to employment and no direct causal links between industrial electricity consumption and gdp in addition all these findings were in general not seriously affected by the financial and economic crises of 2008 a significant exception is the causal effect of industrial electricity consumption on employment which was more pronounced after the crisis of 2008

multivariate granger causality between electricity consumption exports and gdp evidence from a panel of middle eastern countries this paper examines the causal relationship between electricity consumption exports and gross domestic product gdp for a panel of middle eastern countries we find that for the panel as a whole there are statistically significant feedback effects between these variables a 1 per cent increase in electricity consumption increases gdp by 0 04 per cent a 1 per cent increase in exports increases gdp by 0 17 per cent and a 1 per cent increase in gdp generates a 0 95 per cent increase in electricity consumption the policy implications are that for the panel as a whole these countries should invest in electricity infrastructure and step up electricity conservation policies to avoid a reduction in electricity consumption adversely affecting economic growth further policy implications are that for the panel as a whole promoting exports particularly non oil exports is a means to promote economic growth and that expansion of exports can be realized without having adverse effects on energy conservation policies

stochastic trends and economic fluctuations are business cycles mainly the result of permanent shocks to productivity this paper uses a long run restriction implied by a large class of real business cycle models identifying permanent productivity shocks as shocks to the common stochastic trend in output consumption and investment to provide new evidence on this question econometric tests indicate that this common stochastic trend cointegration implication is consistent with postwar u s data however in systems with nominal variables the estimates of this common stochastic trend indicate that permanent productivity shocks typically explain less than half of the business cycle variability in output consumption and investment copyright 1991 by american economic association

the added worker effect abstract this paper uses the gross change data and cointegration error correction modeling to test the hypothesis of added worker effect in the u s labor market it is shown that prime age males unemployment u m and flows from unemployment to out of the labor force un m cause an increase in prime age and young females flows from not in the labor force keeping house to employment and decrease their flows into unemployment

robust control of forward looking models abstract this paper shows how to formulate and compute robust ramsey aka stackelberg plans for linear models with forward looking private agents the leader and the followers share a common approximating model and both have preferences for robust decision rules because both doubt the model since their preferences differ the leader s and followers decision rules are fragile to different misspecifications of the approximating model we define a stackelberg equilibrium with robust decision makers in which the leader and follower have different worst case models despite sharing a common approximating model to compute a stackelberg equilibrium we formulate a bellman equation that is associated with an artificial single agent robust control problem the artificial bellman equation contains a description of implementability constraints that include euler equations that describe the worst case analysis of the followers as an example the paper analyzes a model of a monopoly facing a competitive fringe

robust monetary policy in a small open economy abstract we study how a central bank in a small open economy should conduct monetary policy if it fears that its model is misspecified using a new keynesian model of a small open economy we solve analytically for the optimal robust policy rule and the equilibrium dynamics and we separately analyze the consequences of central bank robustness against misspecification concerning the determination of inflation output and the exchange rate we show that an increase in the preference for robustness makes the central bank respond more aggressively or more cautiously to shocks depending on the type of shock and the source of misspecification

energy and economic growth in the usa a multivariate approach abstract this paper examines the causal relationship between gdp and energy use for the period 1947 90 in the usa the relationship between energy use and economic growth has been examined by both biophysical and neoclassical economists in particular several studies have tested for the presence of a causal relationship in the granger sense between energy use and economic growth however these tests do not allow a direct test of the relative explanatory powers of the neoclassical and biophysical models a multivariate adaptation of the test vector autoregression var does allow such a test a var of gdp energy use capital stock and employment is estimated and granger tests for causal relationships between the variables are carried out although there is no evidence that gross energy use granger causes gdp a measure of final energy use adjusted for changing fuel composition does granger cause gdp

investigation of the environmental kuznets curve for carbon emissions in malaysia do foreign direct investment and trade matter abstract environmental degradation has become a central issue of discussion among the economists and environmentalists in view of malaysia s position as one of the main contributors to co2 emissions in asia and its status as a fast growing economy it is vital therefore to conduct a study to identify the relationship between economic growth and co2 emissions for malaysia this study attempts to examine empirically the environmental kuznets curve hypothesis for malaysia in the presence of foreign direct investment and trade openness both in the short and long run for the period 1970 to 2008 the bounds testing approach and granger causality methodology are applied to test the interrelationships of the variables the results of our study indicate that the inverted u shaped relationship does exist between economic growth and co2 emission in both the short and long run for malaysia after controlling for two additional explanatory variables namely fdi and trade importantly the results of the study also provide some crucial policy recommendations to the policy makers

the zero interest rate bound and the role of the exchange rate for monetary policy in japan in this paper we study the role of the exchange rate in conducting monetary policy in an economy with near zero nominal interest rates as experienced in japan since the mid 1990s our analysis is based on an estimated model of japan the united states and the euro area with rational expectations and nominal rigidities first we provide a quantitative analysis of the impact of the zero bound on the effectiveness of interest rate policy in japan in terms of stabilizing output and inflation then we evaluate three concrete proposals that focus on depreciation of the currency as a way to ameliorate the effect of the zero bound and evade a potential liquidity trap finally we investigate the international consequences of these proposals

the relationship between energy and gnp further results this paper reexamines the casuality between gnp and energy consumption by using updated us data for the period 1947 1979 as a secondary contribution we investigate the causal relationship between energy consumption and employment applying sims technique we find no causal relationship between gnp and energy consumption we find further that there is a slight unidirectional flow running from employment to energy consumption economic interpretations of the empirical results are also presented

technological extinctions of industrial firms an inquiry into their nature and causes after a buildup in the number of firms new industries commonly experience a shakeout in which the number of firms declines sharply three theoretical perspectives on how technological change contributes to industry shakeouts are analyzed the theories are used to synthesize predictions concerning technological change and industry evolution the predictions inform an analysis of four us industries that experienced sharp shakeouts automobiles tires televisions and penicillin using data on firm participation and innovation from the commercial inception of the four products through their formative eras we uncover regularities in how the products evolved the regularities suggest that shakeouts are not triggered by particular technological innovations nor by dominant designs but by an evolutionary process in which technological innovation contributes to a mounting dominance by some early entering firms copyright 1997 by oxford university press

measuring design investment in firms conceptual foundations and exploratory uk survey abstract the importance of design to company and national performance has been widely discussed with a number of studies investigating the value or impact of design on performance however none of these studies has measured design investment as an input against which performance can be compared as yet there is no established way in which design investment might be measured without such a method we cannot develop a reliable picture akin to that for r d spending on the impact of design spending on company performance this paper presents a conceptual framework for the measurement of design investment and applies this framework in a survey of uk firms the framework describes design as being part of the creation and commercialization of new products and services the survey highlights some surprising patterns of design spend in the reported sample and demonstrates the viability of the underpinning framework a revised framework is proposed that situates design investment in the context of r d the model has implications for policy makers trying to understand the role and scale of design in the private sector for managers wishing to optimize their design investments and for academics seeking to measure the value of design

autoregressive modelling and money income causality detection abstract a step wise procedure based on granger s concept of causality and abaike s final prediction error criterion is suggested as a practical means to identify the order of lags of each variable in a multivariate autoregressive process the model seems useful because it can serve as a reduced form formulation to avoid imposing often spurious or false restrictions of the model it also provides a reasonably powerful test of causality the idea is applied to u s postwar money and income data it is found that between m1 and gnp a bivariate feedback model fits the data best between m2 and gnp a one way causal model from money to income performs better diagnostic checks applied to our model seem to indicate the adequacy of our approach

inflation persistence and robust monetary policy design this paper examines the performance of optimised interest rate rules when there is uncertainty about a key determinant of the monetary transmission mechanism namely the degree of persistence characterising the inflation process the paper focuses on the euro area and utilises two variants of an estimated small scale macroeconomic model featuring distinct types of staggered contracts specifications which induce quite different degrees of inflation persistence the paper shows that a cautious monetary policy maker is well advised to design and implement interest rate policies under the assumption that inflation persistence is high when there is considerable uncertainty about the prevailing degree of inflation persistence such policies are characterised by a relatively aggressive response to inflation developments and exhibit a substantial degree of inertia

liberalisation consumption heterogeneity and the dynamics of energy prices in this study the methodology var and the cointegration analysis are used to examine the dynamic interaction among the energy prices of the competitor energy sources in a liberalised market data from the uk market were applied and models for the residential and industrial sectors were developed our results indicate the existence of long run relationships between the energy prices before and after the liberalisation implying the possibility of substitution among the different forms of energy however the results appear to be also largely influenced by external variables not included in the models that may be reducing the importance of the energy prices over their own evolution and offsetting the basic substitution relationships the general results of the impulse response functions both for the residential and industrial sectors present low statistical significance which seems to be due to the still slow rate of adjustment of the energy market to price changes along with the immaturity of the liberalisation process taking into consideration the results some routes for future research are pointed out namely the need to include in the analysis variables which would proxy the general state of the economy

knowledge stocks knowledge flows and innovation evidence from matched patents and innovation panel data successful innovation depends on knowledge technological strategic and market related in this paper we explore the role and interaction of firms existing knowledge stocks and current knowledge flows in shaping innovation success the paper contributes to our understanding of the determinants of firms innovation outputs and provides new information on the relationship between knowledge stocks as measured by patents and innovation output indicators our analysis uses innovation panel data relating to plants internal knowledge creation external knowledge search and innovation outputs firm level patent data is matched with this plant level innovation panel data to provide a measure of firms knowledge stock two substantive conclusions follow first existing knowledge stocks have weak negative rather than positive impacts on firms innovation outputs reflecting potential core rigidities or negative path dependencies rather than the accumulation of competitive advantages second knowledge flows derived from internal investment and external search dominate the effect of existing knowledge stocks on innovation performance both results emphasize the importance of firms knowledge search strategies our results also re emphasize the potential issues which arise when using patents as a measure of innovation

disaggregated industrial energy consumption and gdp the case of shanghai 1952 1999 abstract this paper investigates the causal relationship between various kinds of industrial energy consumption and gdp in shanghai for the period 1952 1999 using a modified version of the granger 1969 causality test proposed by toda and yamamoto j econ 66 1995 225 the empirical evidence from disaggregated energy series seems to suggest that there was a uni directional granger causality running from coal coke electricity and total energy consumption to real gdp but no granger causality running in any direction between oil consumption and real gdp

the relationship among energy prices and energy consumption in china the pricing mechanism for energy is not in line with the international standards because the energy prices are controlled by the government partly or completely in china chinese government made a lot of efforts to improve the pricing mechanism for energy the relations between chinese energy prices and energy consumption are the foundations to reform the mechanism in this paper the relations between chinese energy consumption and energy prices are researched by cointegration equations impulse response functions granger causality and variance decomposition the cointegration relations among energy prices energy consumption and economic outputs show that higher energy price will decrease energy consumption in chinese industrial sectors but will not reduce the economic output in the long run the cointegration relation between energy price and household energy consumption shows that higher energy price will decrease household energy consumption in the long run and increase it in the short run so chinese government should deepen the reform of pricing mechanism for energy and increase the energy prices reasonably to save energy

defence spending economic growth and temporal causality evidence from taiwan and mainland china 1952 1995 this paper uses a cointegration analysis and a vector autoregressive model var to examine the causal relationship between defence spending and economic growth for taiwan and mainland china over the period 1952 1995 it is found that these two variables are not cointegrated for both countries studied the results of the granger causality tests suggest bidirectional granger causality feedback between defence spending and economic growth for taiwan unidirectional granger causality running from economic growth to defence spending for mainland china and unidirectional granger causality running from taiwan s defence spending to mainland china s defence spending for cross country studied these results further indicate that there exists no arms race between two countries from both sides of taiwan strait furthermore impulse responses and variance decompositions are incorporated into the analysis the results from the impulse responses and variance decompositions tell a similar story

technology systems and technology policy in an evolutionary framework the central purpose of this paper is to outline an evolutionary theory of technology policy and to connect it with the emerging literature on national systems of innovation any understanding of technology policy must be based on a clear understanding of the nature of technology and the important differences between science and technology technology can be treated in terms of knowledge skills and artifacts and in each case there are different variety generating mechanisms different selection processes and different institutional structures for policy purposes the degree of connection between these different dimensions of technology is at the core of technology policy c 1995 academic press inc copyright 1995 by oxford university press

public financing of cooperative r d projects in spain the concerted projects under the national r d plan abstract this work will analyse the factors which influence decision making within the spanish public sector on the financing of precompetitive research projects developed by firms in collaboration with universities and public research organisms with this objective in mind an econometric model is proposed that explains simultaneously the concession of aid on behalf of the public sector and the amount of such aid the estimates carried out indicate among other results that the destination of the budgeted funds explains a large part of the public financing received however all the evidence would seem to indicate that the funding has not been awarded either in order to significantly favour those firms which most need it nor to give incentive to high levels of cooperation

re investigating the electricity consumption and economic growth nexus in portugal in the previous decades a number of studies have been conducted to analyse the causal relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in the portuguese economy however the evidence remains controversial because the previous studies do not provide clear causality evidence this might be attributed to the omitted variables bias because most previous studies only focus on the relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in a bi variate model this paper attempts to re investigate the relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in portugal using a multivariate model based on the bounds testing approach to cointegration and the granger causality test within the vector error correction model vecm our empirical results confirm the presence of cointegration among the variables moreover there is evidence of bi directional causality between electricity consumption and economic growth in the short and long run this suggests that energy is an important source of economic growth in portugal therefore energy conservation policies should not be implemented because it would deteriorate the process of economic growth and development of the portuguese economy

robust inflation forecast based rules to shield against indeterminacy abstract this paper provides a first attempt to quantify and at the same time utilize estimated measures of uncertainty for the design of robust interest rate rules we estimate several variants of a linearized form of a new keynesian model using quarterly us data both our theoretical and numerical results indicate that inflation forecast based ifb rules are increasingly prone to the problem of indeterminacy as the forward horizon increases as a consequence the stabilization performance of optimized rules of this type worsens too robust ifb rules can be designed to avoid indeterminacy in an uncertain environment but at an increasing utility loss as rules become more forward looking

energy consumption employment output and temporal causality evidence from taiwan based on cointegration and error correction modelling techniques in this study a cointegration analysis and a vector autoregressive model var are used to examine the causal relationships among energy consumption employment and output for taiwan over the period january 1982 to november 1997 johansen 1988 and johansen and juselius 1990 cointegration test result indicates these three variables are cointegrated with one cointegrating vector the results from granger causality tests based on vector error correction models vecm suggest bidirectional grange causality for employment output and employment energy consumption but only unidirectional causality running from energy consumption to output furthermore the impulse responses and variance decompositions are also incorporated into the analysis the results from impulsive response and variance decomposition analysis tell similar stories energy consumption appears to have led to output growth in taiwan over this period the policy implication of this finding is that energy conservation will restrain the outpu

decoupling factors on the energy output linkage the spanish case the recent increase of energy intensity in spain and the ratification of the kyoto protocol call for the implementation of energy policies in spain in this paper we investigate the relationship between gross domestic product gdp and energy consumption ec by taking into account several decoupling factors that can affect this linkage specifically we have considered the temporal aggregation of data and its seasonal adjustments the multivariate methodology the substitution between ec and other inputs and the technological changes empirical tests reveal a long run relationship between ec and gdp that can only be established in a complete way with a multivariate cointegration analysis furthermore a short run unidirectional causality from ec to economic growth is found therefore primary ec plays an important role as a limiting factor for economic growth in spain in the short run

quantifying and sustaining welfare gains from monetary commitment abstract our objectives are to quantify the stabilization welfare gains from commitment to examine how commitment to an optimal rule can be sustained as an equilibrium to find a simple interest rate rule that approximates the optimal commitment one we utilize an empirical micro founded euro area dsge model a quadratic approximation of household utility as the welfare criterion employing a nominal interest rate lower bound in contrast to previous studies we find significant commitment stabilization gains of around a 0 4 0 5 equivalent permanent consumption increase and with higher price stickiness gains over 2 we find that a simple optimized commitment rule responding to inflation and the real wage mimics the optimal one

impact of terrorism on tourism in turkey empirical evidence from turkey this article aims at investigating the causal impact of terrorist attacks on the tourism industry in turkey based on the autoregressive distributed lag ardl bounds testing procedure for the period between 1986 and 2006 the ardl bounds test reveals that tourism is in a long run equilibrium level relationship with terrorism the evidence obtained from the long run and short run parameter estimates indicates the existence of a negative causal effect of terrorism on tourism

energy consumption and economic growth in new zealand results of trivariate and multivariate models abstract this study examines the energy consumption growth nexus in new zealand causal linkages between energy and macroeconomic variables are investigated using trivariate demand side and multivariate production models long run and short run relationships are estimated for the period 1960 2004 the estimated results of demand model reveal a long run relationship between energy consumption real gdp and energy prices the short run results indicate that real gdp granger causes energy consumption without feedback consistent with the proposition that energy demand is a derived demand energy prices are found to be significant for energy consumption outcomes production model results indicate a long run relationship between real gdp energy consumption and employment the granger causality is found from real gdp to energy consumption providing additional evidence to support the neoclassical proposition that energy consumption in new zealand is fundamentally driven by economic activities inclusion of capital in the multivariate production model shows short run causality from capital to energy consumption also changes in real gdp and employment have significant predictive power for changes in real capital

the role of coal consumption in the economic growth of the polish economy in transition abstract the main goal of this paper is an analysis of the causal links between quarterly coal consumption in the polish economy and gdp for the sake of accurate computation an additional variable employment was also taken into account computations conducted for the period q1 2000 to q4 2009 by means of recent causality techniques confirmed the neutrality of hard coal usage with respect to economic growth on the other hand calculations for the pairs lignite gdp and total coal consumption gdp showed the existence of a significant nonlinear causality from coal usage to economic growth this is clear evidence for claiming that lignite plays an important role in the economic growth of the polish economy furthermore each coal related variable was found to have a nonlinear causal impact on employment because of the relatively short length of available time series we additionally applied bootstrap critical values the empirical results computed by both methods did not exhibit significant differences these results have important policy implications in general our findings support the hypothesis that closing hard coal mines in poland should have no significant repercussions on economic growth however this does not seem to be true for lignite mines

electricity consumption growth nexus the case of malaysia abstract the goal of this paper is to model the relationship between electricity consumption and real gross domestic product gdp for malaysia in a bivariate and multivariate framework we use time series data for the period 1971 2003 and apply the bounds testing approach to search for a long run relationship our results reveal that electricity consumption real gdp and price share a long run relationship the results of the autoregressive distributed lag ardl estimates of long run elasticity of electricity consumption on gdp are found to be around 0 7 and statistically significant finally in the short run the results of the causality test show that there is a unidirectional causal flow from electricity consumption to economic growth in malaysia from these findings we conclude that malaysia is an energy dependent country leading us to draw some policy implications this paper adds support and validity thus reducing the policy makers concern on the ambiguity of the electricity and growth nexus in malaysia

a meta analysis investigation of the direction of the energy gdp causal relationship implications for the growth degrowth dialogue abstract the complex relation between energy use and the economic process has long attracted attention issues such as the scarcity of energy resources energy theory of value degrowth and a growth approaches are closely related to the relationship between energy and development the present study traces the implications of the energy gdp causality dialogue for the context of the growth degrowth debate where the energy development link plays a decisive role in that context the present research investigates the possible existence of a fundamental macro direction of causality between energy use and economic growth that is not influenced by study specific characteristics and events towards this objective we perform a meta analysis that takes into account 158 studies on causality between energy and gdp covering the period 1978 2011 this is the first time to our knowledge that meta analysis has been applied to investigate the direction of the energy and gdp causal relationship the meta analysis results neither support the existence of a fundamental macro direction nor the so called neutrality hypothesis e gdp in the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth

co integration and causality testing of the energy gdp relationship a cross country study in this paper the energy gdp relationship in per capita terms is analysed for a sample of 16 countries over the time period 1950 51 to 1984 85 co integration theory is first used to test whether a long run equilibrium relation exists between the two variables after co integration has been established causality measures are constructed to quantify various types of feedback between energy and gdp for each country it is then examined whether the causality measures are longitudinally related to certain basic economic indicators of the countries in the sample

forecasting in cointegrated systems we consider the implications for forecast accuracy of imposing unit roots and cointegrating restrictions in linear systems of i 1 variables in levels differences and cointegrated combinations asymptotic formulae are obtained for multi step forecast error variances for each representation alternative measures of forecast accuracy are discussed finite sample behaviour in a bivariate model is studied by monte carlo using control variables we also analyse the interaction between unit roots and cointegrating restrictions and intercepts in the dgp some of the issues are illustrated with an empirical example of forecasting the demand for m1 in the uk

the deflation bias and committing to being irresponsible i model deflation at zero nominal interest rate in a microfounded general equilibrium model i show that one can analyze deflation as a credibility problem if three conditions are satisfied first the government s only policy instrument is increasing the money supply by open market operations in short term bonds second the economy is subject to large negative demand shocks third the government cannot commit to future policy i call the credibility problem that arises under these conditions the deflation bias i propose several policies to solve it they all involve printing money or issuing nominal debt in addition they require cutting taxes buying real assets such as stocks or purchasing foreign exchange the government credibly commits to being irresponsible by pursuing these policies it commits to higher money supply in the future so that the private sector expects inflation instead of deflation this is optimal since it curbs deflation and increases output by lowering the real rate of return

the electricity consumption and gdp nexus for the fiji islands fiji is a small open island economy dependent on energy for its growth and development hence the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth is crucial for fiji s development in this paper we investigate the nexus between electricity consumption and economic growth for fiji within a multivariate framework through including the labour force variable we use the bounds testing approach to cointegration and find that electricity consumption gdp and labour force are only cointegrated when gdp is the endogenous variable we use the granger causality f test and find that in the long run causality runs from electricity consumption and labour force to gdp implying that fiji is an energy dependent country and thus energy conservation policies will have an adverse effect on fiji s economic growth

investigating the multivariate granger causality between energy consumption economic growth and co2 emissions in ghana abstract the economy of ghana continues to witness a rising demand for energy coupled with growth in gross domestic product that follows a wavy trajectory in the midst of this economic phenomenon there is a trend of increasing greenhouse gas emissions with attendant economic health and environmental consequences this paper examines the causal interdependence between energy consumption economic growth and co 2 emissions in ghana from 1960 to 2015 by using the toda yamamoto and granger causality tests the johansen and johansen juselius cointegration approach and the autoregressive distributed lag bounds test approach are employed to test for cointegration relationship the results show that the variables are cointegrated the causality tests reveal that there is feedback granger causality between energy consumption and co 2 emissions since there is a causal link between energy consumption and economic growth with its concomitant effect on co 2 emissions any energy conservation oriented policy not derived from energy efficiency and technological progress may hurt the ghanaian economy in effect more effort should be aimed at improving energy efficiency through technological progress and investment should be made in renewable energy to reduce over reliance on fossil fuels

assessing forecast performance in a cointegrated system this paper examines the forecast performance of a cointegrated system relative to the forecast performance of a comparable var that fails to recognize that the system is characterized by cointegration the cointegrated system we examine is composed of three vectors a money demand representation a fisher equation and a risk premium captured by an interest rate differential the forecasts produced by the vector error correction model vecm associated with this system are compared with those obtained from a corresponding differenced vector autoregression dvar as well as a vector autoregression based upon the levels of the data lvar forecast evaluation is conducted using both the full system criterion proposed by clements and hendry 1993 and by comparing forecast performance for specific variables overall our findings suggest that selective forecast performance improvement especially at long forecast horizons may be observed by incorporating knowledge of cointegration rank our general conclusion is that when the advantage of incorporating cointegration appears it is generally at longer forecast horizons this is consistent with the predictions of engle and yoo 1987 but we also find consistent with clements and hendry 1995 that relative gain in forecast performance clearly depends upon the chosen data transformation

the paradox of openness appropriability external search and collaboration a b s t r a c t to innovate firms often need to draw from and collaborate with a large number of actors from outside their organization at the same time firms need also to be focused on capturing the returns from their innovative ideas this gives rise to a paradox of openness the creation of innovations often requires openness but the commercialization of innovations requires protection based on econometric analysis of data from a uk innovation survey we find a concave relationship between firms breadth of external search and formal collaboration for innovation and the strength of the firms appropriability strategies we show that this concave relationship is stronger for breadth of formal collaboration than for external search there is also partial evidence suggesting that the relationship is less pronounced for both external search and formal collaboration if firms do not draw ideas from or collaborate with competitors we explore the implications of these findings for the literature on open innovation and innovation strategy 2013 the authors published by elsevier b v all rights reserved

the performance of forecast based monetary policy rules under model uncertainty we investigate the performance of forecast based monetary policy rules using five macroeconomic models that reflect a wide range of views on aggregate dynamics we identify the key characteristics of rules that are robust to model uncertainty such rules respond to the one year ahead inflation forecast and to the current output gap and incorporate a substantial degree of policy inertia in contrast rules with longer forecast horizons are less robust and are prone to generating indeterminacy in light of these results we identify a robust benchmark rule that performs very well in all five models over a wide range of policy preferences

investigating a neglected part of schumpeter s creative army what drives new to the market innovation in micro enterprises schumpeterian arguments related to creative destruction place small entrepreneurial firms at the centre of the innovation process the exclusion of micro enterprises with less than 10 employees from most innovation surveys means however that we know relatively little about innovation among this group of firms here using new survey data on a thousand micro enterprises we explore the determinants of new to the market innovation the basis for the schumpeterian creative destruction cd process our results provide strong support for the interactive nature of micro enterprise innovation and suggest the potential value of a model of interactive creative destruction icd contrary to some other recent evidence market based and supplier based collaboration both prove important for new to the market innovation our results suggest the importance of micro enterprises as sources of new to the market innovation and the potential value of including such firms in future innovation studies