does economic recession reduce material use empirical evidence based on 157 economies worldwide abstract the research on economic recession has been more focused on the interactions between macroeconomic and financial variables however whether material use has been affected during the recession period has remained under explored in order to fill up this gap this study investigates the relationship between material use and economic recession as well as other socio economic drivers by using the material flow analysis and the system generalized method of moments for 157 economies worldwide during 1980 2011 results show that economic recession poses significant and negative impact on domestic material consumption at 1 level illustrating its role as a determinant factor on material mitigation by dividing the research sample into extractive and non extractive economies as well as high mid and low income groups we again confirmed the significant negative correlations as expected no significant sign is found between recession and physical trade balance besides other drivers such as population gross domestic production gdp per capita and technological variables also exert marked effects at different situations this research work provides an empirical study on how recession and other factors affect material use at various scenarios which have essential implications for understanding material flow dynamics in different economic cycles

spillovers through banking centers a panel data analysis of bank flows abstract this paper presents evidence that spillovers through bank lending contributed to the transmission of currency crises during the recent episodes of financial instability in emerging markets the innovation of the paper is that it looks beyond aggregated measures of contagion into the structure of bank flows disaggregating by banking centers the main findings are that spillovers caused by banks exposures to a crisis country help predict flows in third countries after the mexican and asian crises but not after the russian crisis in the latter there is evidence of a generalized outflow from emerging markets the importance of spillovers through banking centers suggests that countries might reduce contagion risk by diversifying the sources of their financing and by carefully monitoring borrowing from creditors exposed to potential crisis countries

binary choice models with social network under heterogeneous rational expectations abstract this paper extends brock and durlauf s 2001a 2001b binary choice complete network or group interaction model with homogeneous rational expectations to a general network model with heterogeneous rational expectations in our model individuals will form expectations regarding peers behaviors taking into account their characteristics endogenous contextual and correlated effects are all identifiable conditions for unique equilibrium are established for a complete network with heterogeneous rational expectations multiple equilibria can be characterized by an aggregate scalar index the empirical results on adolescents smoking behaviors show significant endogenous and contextual effects even after controlling for school grade random effects and school fixed effects

additions to bank loan loss reserves good news or bad news abstract this paper examines the effects of citicorp s and succeeding banks loan loss reserve announcements in 1987 it was found that while the average effect on bank stock return portfolios was weak the effect on individual bank returns was heterogeneous tests were undertaken to determine which bank specific variables explained the latter result two significant variables were the size of a banks ldc debt exposure and its position in ldc rescheduling committees

international financial contagion in currency crises abstract this paper examines the role of financial linkages especially through a common creditor in the propagation of emerging market crises during the 1990s using panel probit regressions on 41 emerging market countries it finds that financial linkages played a significant role in the spread of the mexican asian and russian crises the significance of financial linkages emerges after controlling for the role of domestic and external fundamentals trade spillovers and financial weaknesses in the affected countries a strong financial linkage to the crisis country of origin not only substantially raises the probability of contagion but also helps to explain the observed regional concentration of currency crises

stagnation and innovation before agriculture abstract during the roughly 190 000 years between the emergence of anatomically modern humans and the transition to agriculture sustained economic progress was rare although there were important innovations in the upper paleolithic evidence from paleodemography indicates that population densities were driven more by climatic conditions than by technological innovations in food acquisition we develop a model in which technological knowledge is subject to mutation and selection across generations in a static environment long run stagnation is the norm however climate shocks can induce experimentation with latent resources this generates punctuated equilibria with greater technical capabilities and higher population densities at successive plateaus the model is consistent with archaeological data on climate population diet and technology from the upper paleolithic through the early neolithic

climatic fluctuations and the diffusion of agriculture this research examines the climatic origins of the diffusion of neolithic agriculture across countries and archaeological sites the theory suggests that a foraging society s history of climatic shocks shaped the timing of its adoption of farming specifically as long as climatic disturbances did not lead to a collapse of the underlying resource base the rate at which hunter gatherers were climatically propelled to experiment with their habitats determined the accumulation of tacit knowledge complementary to farming consistent with the proposed hypothesis the empirical investigation demonstrates that conditional on biogeographic endowments climatic volatility has a hump shaped effect on the timing of the adoption of agriculture

japanese bank regulation and the activities of u s offices of japanese banks note the impact of regulations on markets especially in the banking sector has long been recognized this note considers the growth of u s activities of japanese banks with special emphasis on the role of japanese banking controls and regulations japanese authorities since world war ii have actively participated in their banking markets resulting in a banking sector that cannot respond freely to market conditions it is suggested here that japanese banks use the united states as an alternative source of funds during periods of tight credit in japan caused by these controls and it is found that during these periods u s activities of japanese banks increase this result emphasizes the importance of considering the international impact of regulations especially in markets with readily transported goods three loan demand equations are estimated to identify the importance of u s funds to japanese banks during periods of tight credit demand the first equation estimates a model of the determinants of demand for commercial and industrial loans from u s offices of japanese banks the customers for these loans cannot be determined from the data available but presumably include a relatively large number of japanese firms operating in both the united states and japan the second equation estimates a model of the demand by japanese banks for funds returned to japan via interbank loans from u s offices of japanese banks the third equation compares the demand for commercial and industrial loans of u s offices of japanese banks to that of u s banks overall the results support significantly the importance of u s offices of japanese banks to the japanese credit market section 1 reviews characteristics of japanese banking that may make u s offices especially attractive and the literature on foreign direct investment and how it relates

the role of portfolio constraints in the international propagation of shocks we study the comovement among stock prices and exchange rates in a three good three country centre periphery dynamic equilibrium model in which the centre s agents face portfolio constraints we characterize equilibrium in closed form for a broad class of portfolio constraints solving for stock prices terms of trade and portfolio holdings we show that portfolio constraints generate wealth transfers between the periphery countries and the centre which increase the comovement of the stock prices across the periphery we associate this excess comovement caused by portfolio constraints with the phenomenon known as contagion the model generates predictions consistent with other important empirical results such as amplification and flight to quality effects copyright 2008 wiley blackwell

the rise of europe atlantic trade institutional change and economic growth the rise of western europe after 1500 is due largely to growth in countries with access to the atlantic ocean and with substantial trade with the new world africa and asia via the atlantic this trade and the associatedcolonialism affected europe not only directly but also indirectly by inducing institutional change where initial political institutions those established before 1500 placed significant checks on the monarchy the growth of atlantic trade strengthened merchant groups by constraining the power of the monarchy and helped merchants obtain changes in institutions to protect property rights these changes were central to subsequent economic growth

the international transmission of financial shocks the case of japan one of the more dramatic financial events of the late 1980s and early 1990s was the surge in japanese stock prices that was immediately followed by a very sharp decline of more than 50 percent while the unprecedented fluctuations in japanese stock prices were domestic financial shocks the unique institutional characteristics of the japanese economy produce a framework that is particularly suited to the transmission of such shocks to other countries through the behavior of the japanese banking system the large size of japanese bank lending operations in the united states enables us to use u s banking data to investigate the extent to which this domestic japanese financial shock was transmitted to the united states as well as to identify a supply shock to u s bank lending that is independent of u s loan demand we find that binding risk based capital requirements associated with the decline in the japanese stock market resulted in a decline in commercial lending by japanese banks in the united states that was both economically and statistically significant this finding has added importance given the severe real estate loan problems currently faced by japanese banks how japanese bank regulators decide to resolve these problems will have significant implications for credit availability in the united states as well as in other countries with a significant japanese bank presence

peer effects and social networks in education this paper studies whether structural properties of friendship networks affect individual outcomes in education we first develop a model that shows that at the nash equilibrium the outcome of each individual embedded in a network is proportional to her katz bonacich centrality measure this measure takes into account both direct and indirect friends of each individual but puts less weight to her distant friends we then bring the model to the data by using a very detailed dataset of adolescent friendship networks we show that after controlling for observable individual characteristics and unobservable network specific factors the individual s position in a network as measured by her katz bonacich centrality is a key determinant of her level of activity a standard deviation increase in the katz bonacich centrality increases the pupil school performance by more than 7 percent of one standard deviation

information or regulation what drives the international activities of commercial banks information costs and regulatory barriers distinguish international financial markets from national ones using panel data on bilateral assets and liabilities of commercial banks i empirically determine the impact of information costs and regulations and i isolate intra eu financial linkages i confirm that information costs and regulations are important factors influencing international asset choices of banks but their relative importance differs among countries

on crises contagion and confusion abstract since the tequila crisis of 1994 1995 the asian flu of 1997 and the russian virus of 1998 economists have been busy producing research on the subject of contagion yet few studies have examined empirically through which channels the disturbances are transmitted if there are indeed fundamental reasons for the spillovers we observe we attempt to fill this gap by analyzing how both trade links and the largely ignored financial sector links influence the pattern of fundamentals based contagion we examine the role of international bank lending the potential for cross market hedging and bilateral and third party trade in the propagation of crises

understanding bilateral exchange rate volatility abstract this paper develops an empirical model of bilateral exchange rate volatility we conjecture that for developing economies external financial liabilities have an important effect on desired bilateral exchange rate volatility above and beyond the standard optimal currency area oca factors by contrast industrial countries do not face the same set of constraints in international financial markets in our theoretical model external debt tightens financial constraints and reduces the efficiency of the exchange rate in responding to external shocks we go on to explore the determinants of bilateral exchange rate volatility in a broad cross section of countries for developing economies bilateral exchange rate volatility relative to creditor countries is strongly negatively affected by the stock of external debt for industrial countries however oca variables appear more important and external debt is generally not significant in explaining bilateral exchange rate volatility

crime and social interactions the high variance of crime rates across time and space is one of the oldest puzzles in the social sciences this variance appears too high to be explained by changes in the exogenous costs and benefits of crime we present a model where social interactions create enough covariance across individuals to explain the high cross city variance of crime rates this model provides an index of social interactions which suggests that the amount of social interactions is highest in petty crimes moderate in more serious crimes and almost negligible in murder and rape

financial crises and the composition of cross border lending abstract we examine the composition and drivers of cross border bank lending between 1995 and 2012 distinguishing between syndicated and non syndicated loans we show that on balance sheet syndicated loan exposures which account for almost one third of total cross border loan exposures increased during the global financial crisis due to large drawdowns on credit lines extended before the crisis our empirical analysis of the drivers of cross border loan exposures in a large bilateral dataset leads to three main results first banks with lower levels of capital favor syndicated over other kinds of cross border loans second borrower country characteristics such as level of development economic size and capital account openness are less important in driving syndicated than non syndicated loan activity suggesting a diversification motive for syndication third information asymmetries between lender and borrower countries became more binding for both types of cross border lending activity during the recent crisis

liquidity management of u s global banks internal capital markets in the great recession abstract the recent crisis highlighted the importance of globally active banks in linking markets one channel for this linkage is through how these banks manage liquidity across their entire banking organization we document that funds regularly flow between parent banks and their affiliates in diverse foreign markets we show that parent banks when hit by a funding shock reallocate liquidity in the organization according to a locational pecking order affiliate locations that are important for the parent bank revenue streams are relatively protected from liquidity reallocations in the organization while traditional funding locations are more extensively used to buffer shocks to the parent bank balance sheets

do neighborhoods affect hours worked evidence from longitudinal data using a confidential version of the nlsy79 we estimate large effects of neighborhood social characteristics and job proximity on labor market activity a variety of neighborhood social characteristics are associated with less market work social characteristics have nonlinear effects with the greatest impact in the worst neighborhoods social characteristics are also more important for less educated workers exploiting the panel aspects of our data we find that estimates that do not account for neighborhood selection on the basis of time invariant and time varying unobserved individual characteristics substantially overstate the social effects of neighborhoods but understate the effects of job access

the role of location related factors in u s banking involvement abroad an empirical examination this study examines the role of major location specific advantages in the international branch banking involvement of u s banks using pooled time series 1976 82 cross sectional thirty countries regression analysis this study finds that the u s business presence in foreign country has a strong positive effect on u s branch banking activity in that country in contrast the local market opportunity appears to have no significant effect these results hold for the entire set of countries as well as each of five subsets developed less developed european latin american and asian countries the openness of the host country to the establishment of new foreign bank branches does affect u s branch banking involvement this effect is most pronounced in the less developed countries particularly those in asia

international lending patterns of u s commercial banks the international lending behavior of the u s commercial banks depends upon economic links between countries much of the difference between the international loan portfolios of u s banks and those of the non u s banks may be explained by the patterns of trade flows and investments by nonfinancial corporations these trade flows and investment patterns explain most of the variations in the bank lending patterns for 70 80 percent of the countries the analysis points to an increasing influence of economic ties on the lending process over time

the high price of dematerialization a dynamic panel data analysis of material use and economic recession abstract dematerialization at the national level occurs almost exclusively during periods of economic recession or low growth while recession is not a sustainable strategy to curb environmental impact such periods may offer important insights on the possibilities of reducing material use economic recession research has focused on the interactions between macroeconomic and financial variables with little systematic research dedicated to uncovering how resource use develops during periods of recession using a dynamic panel model we investigate whether and to what extent material use in a sample of 150 economies between 1970 and 2010 was affected by recession and low growth recession occurred most frequently and in more than two thirds of all countries during the 1980s and the 1990s in the 2000s more than half of the recessions occurred during the financial crisis of 2008 periods of recession were significantly and negatively correlated with material use they tended to coincide with dematerialization material use decreased in recession years but the significant correlations with growth in material use became weaker as growth rates increased construction minerals and metals used to build stocks of manufactured capital reacted more strongly to economic fluctuations than the throughput dominated flows of biomass and fossil fuels we conclude that the systematic link between recession and dematerialization can become policy relevant if the mechanisms causing reductions in material use during these periods are identified

relative risk aversion and the transmission of financial crises we study how investor behavior affects the transmission of financial crises if investors exhibit decreasing relative risk aversion then negative wealth shocks increase the risk premium required to hold risky assets we integrate this into a second generation model of currency crises which allows for contagion through changes in fundamentals investor behavior can be a transmission channel of financial crises as changes in risk premia increase the coverage ratio and makes the defense of a peg less attractive for the policy maker the feedback effect of the risk premia on the probability of devaluation also makes multiple equilibria more likely the possible stabilization effects of capital controls and a tobin tax on the international transmission of financial crises are also studied

discrete choice with social interactions this paper provides an analysis of aggregate behavioural outcomes when individual utility exhibits social interaction effects we study generalized logistic models of individual choice which incorporate terms reflecting the desire of individuals to conform to the behaviour of others in an environment of noncooperative decisionmaking laws of large numbers are generated in such environments multiplicity of equilibria in these models which are equivalent to the existence of multiple self consistent means for average choice behaviour will exist when the social interactions exceed a particular threshold local stability of these multiple equilibria is also studied the properties of the noncooperative economy are contrasted with the properties of an economy in which a social planner determines the set of individual choices finally a likelihood function based on the theoretical model is given and conditions for the econometric identifiability of the model are established

viewpoint the economics of hunter gatherer societies and the evolution of human characteristics we argue for attention to the evolutionary origins of economic behaviour going beyond this we argue that the economy of hunting and gathering was the context in which evolution shaped human characteristics that underlie modern economic behaviour we first reconsider the basic biological question of why aging occurs at all we then illustrate the usefulness of considering foraging economics by asking why it is biologically advantageous for humans to live long after their reproductive career is over further we argue that foraging economics would have led to the simultaneous exaggeration of intelligence and of longevity that is characteristic of humans jel classification a12 j10 l economie des societes de chasseurs cueilleurs et l evolution des traits humains les auteurs suggerent qu on doit porter plus d attention aux origines evolutionnaires du comportement economique poussant un pas plus loin ils suggerent que l economie des chasseurs cueilleurs a ete le contexte ou l evolution a conforme les traits humains qui sous tendent le comportement economique moderne d abord ils reexaminent la question biologique de base a savoir pourquoi il y a vieillissement ensuite ils illustrent l utilite d une economie des activites de cueillette chasse et engrangement en posant la question a savoir pourquoi il est biologiquement avantageux pour les humains de bien vivre apres que leur periode de reproduction active est terminee finalement ils suggerent que ce type d economie aurait entraine simultanement une surestimation de l intelligence et de la longevite deux traits des humains

global banking global crises the role of the bank balance sheet channel for the transmission of financial crises abstract we examine whether shocks to leveraged creditors with cross border holdings have an incidence on debtor countries risk of suffering financial turmoil we construct a new proxy of shocks to international banks balance sheets using credit ratings and the structure of their international assets this allows us investigating the effect of foreign bank balance sheet shocks on domestic financial turmoil in a large sample of 146 developed and emerging economies from 1984 to 2011 our proxies of shocks towards bank balance sheets are strong predictors of systemic banking crises in their debtor countries confirming these results bilateral bank flows significantly decrease when creditor banks assets are hit by negative shocks as measured by credit rating downgrades from third party countries short term liabilities towards global banks appear to increase roll over and funding risks thereby amplifying the impact of shocks to foreign lenders balance sheets domestic banking sectors vulnerabilities such as illiquid assets and a low deposit asset ratio are found to increase crisis contagion risk in contrast a high level of global liquidity attenuates the transmission of shocks to international banks assets to debtor countries

binary choice under social interactions an empirical study with and without subjective data on expectations this paper examines two methods of modeling binary choice with social interactions models assuming homogeneous rational expectations and models using subjective data on expectations exploiting a unique survey conducted during the 1996 us presidential election that was designed to study voting behavior under social context we find that in various model specifications using subjective expectations consistently improves models goodness of fit and that subjective expectations are not rational as formulated by brock and durlauf specifically members characteristics are individually important in forming expectations we also include correlated effect in the rational expectation model this extension provides a remedy to the selection issues that often arise in social interaction models copyright 2008 john wiley sons ltd

risk aversion time preferences and out migration experimental evidence from ghana and indonesia abstract it has long been hypothesized that migrants and non migrants differ in their individual risk and time preferences due to a lack of reliable data on migrants preferences empirical evidence however is scarce therefore this paper has sought to advance research on preferences and migration decisions by using original household survey data from two developing countries that are both characterized by a longstanding tradition in regional migration in coastal communities in ghana and indonesia individual risk and time preferences have not only been elicited through survey questions but also through experimental tasks with real and relatively large monetary payoffs there is evidence that out migrants from both study regions are significantly less risk averse and have a lower time preference than non migrants overall the results indicate that the considered individual preferences are as important as employment status education or networks which have mainly been the focus of migration theories

the origins of inequality insiders outsiders elites and commoners hereditary economic inequality is unknown among mobile foragers but hereditary class distinctions between elites and commoners exist in some sedentary foraging societies with agriculture such stratification tends to become more pronounced we develop a model to explain the associations among productivity population property rights and inequality using malthusian dynamics we show that regional productivity growth leads to enclosure of the best sites first creating inequality between insiders and outsiders hereditary elite and commoner classes subsequently arise at the best sites food consumption becomes more unequal and commoners become poorer these predictions are consistent with a wide range of archaeological evidence

the structure of international banking abstract this paper investigates the factors that determine the number and form of foreign banking operations from 60 foreign countries in the united states our equilibrium model of three banking forms representative offices agencies and branches and three explanatory variables export activity merchant banking activity and capital market development explains more than 74 per cent of the variation in numbers of offices across the 60 different foreign countries in addition we identify the equilibrium model of competition among the types of operations that is most consistent with the empirical results jel f33

what lures cross border venture capital inflows the change in the business model of venture capitalists from investing locally towards investing across borders started to intensify in the late 1990s according to a dataset of european and north american countries we find that countries with higher expected growth and higher lagged stock market returns receive larger net cross border venture capital inflows thus portfolio companies located in high growth and high return countries receive more venture capital from foreign venture capitalists than these countries venture capitalists invest in foreign portfolio companies also countries with lower stock market capitalizations as well as those with poor tax and legal environments for venture capital intermediation exhibit larger net cross border inflows these findings offer important insights for policy makers since cross border venture capital inflows partly compensate for potential limits in the domestic venture capital supply

a discrete choice model with social interactions with an application to high school teen behavior we develop an empirical discrete choice interaction model with a finite number of agents we characterize its equilibrium properties in particular the correspondence between interaction strength number of agents and the set of equilibria and propose to estimate the model by means of simulation methods in an empirical application we analyze the individual behavior of high school teenagers in almost 500 school classes from 70 schools in our baseline model endogenous social interaction effects are strong for behavior closely related to school truancy somewhat weaker for behavior partly related to school smoking cell phone ownership and moped ownership and absent for behavior far away from school asking parents permission for purchases intra gender interactions are generally much stronger than cross gender interactions in a model with school specific fixed effects social interaction effects are insignificant with the exception of intra gender interactions for truancy copyright c 2007 john wiley sons ltd

contagion and trade why are currency crises regional abstract currency crises tend to be regional they affect countries in geographic proximity this suggests that patterns of international trade are important in understanding how currency crises spread above and beyond any macroeconomic phenomena we provide empirical support for this hypothesis using data for five different currency crises in 1971 1973 1992 1994 and 1997 we show that currency crises affect clusters of countries tied together by international trade by way of contrast macroeconomic and financial influences are not closely associated with the cross country incidence of speculative attacks

regionality revisited an examination of the direction of spread of currency crises abstract what determines the direction of spread of currency crises we examine data on waves of currency crises in 1992 1994 1997 and 1998 to evaluate several hypotheses on the determinants of contagion we simultaneously consider trade competition financial links and institutional similarity to the ground zero country as potential drivers of contagion to overcome data limitations and account for model uncertainty we utilize bayesian methodologies hitherto unused in the empirical literature on contagion in particular we use the bayesian averaging of binary models that allows us to take into account the uncertainty regarding the appropriate set of regressors we find that institutional similarity to the ground zero country plays an important role in determining the direction of contagion in all the emerging market currency crises in our dataset we thus provide persuasive evidence in favour of the wake up call hypothesis for financial contagion trade and financial links may also play a role in determining the direction of contagion but their importance varies amongst the crisis periods

when in peril retrench testing the portfolio channel of contagion abstract the impact of past gains and losses on international investors risk aversion is an important factor in the propagation of financial shocks across countries we first present a stylized model illustrating how changes in investors risk aversion affect portfolio decisions and stock prices we then examine empirically the behavior of international mutual funds when funds returns are below average they reduce their exposure to countries in which they were overweight and vice versa an index of financial interdependence that reflects the extent to which countries share overexposed funds helps explain the pattern of stock market comovement across countries and the pattern of contagion during crises

identification of endogenous social effects the reflection problem this paper examines the reflection problem that arises when a researcher observing the distribution of behaviour in a population tries to infer whether the average behaviour in some group influences the behaviour of the individuals that comprise the group it is found that inference is not possible unless the researcher has prior information specifying the compisition of reference groups if this information is available the prospects for inference depend critically on the population relationship between the variables defining reference groups and those directly affecting outcomes inference is difficult to implossible if these variables are functionally dependent or are statistically independent the prospects are better if the variables defining reference groups and those directly affecting outcomes are moderately related in the population

the economics of exogamous marriage in small scale societies marriage is a core institution in almost every human society including small scale societies based on foraging or subsistence agriculture a crucial dimension of the marriage systems in such societies involves endogamy and exogamy that is the choice of a marriage partner from within one s own community or from an outside community we develop a model in which the exogamy rate is higher when good local matches are scarce due to small community sizes and when productivity differs across communities due to environmental shocks these theoretical predictions are supported by econometric analysis of data from the standard cross cultural sample jel d13 j11 n30 z13

positive theories of multinational banking eclectic theory versus internalisation theory the choice of an appropriate paradigm to consider banks motivation to enter a new market and their subsequent performance is an important issue in multinational banking this paper discusses this issue within the context of two competing theories of the multinational enterprise and the special theories of banking as applied to the multinational enterprise the conclusion of this paper is that while it may not be possible to empirically distinguish between the propositions of eclectic theory and internalisation theory intemalisation theory offers a framework with greater internal consistency for the study of the multinational bank further any empirical studies must be conducted within the framework of the appropriate special theories consistent with internalisation theory these special theories have developed over time in an unstructured fashion and the application of internalisation theory provides a cohesive framework within which to analyse these theories

the extension of international credit by us banks a disaggregated analysis 1988 1994 abstract we use simultaneous equation estimation techniques to analyze decisions made by 35 us banks with respect to credit extended domestically and to credit extended within 16 foreign countries 1988 1994 our results indicate that foreign credit extension by us banks follows the commercial expansion of us businesses abroad and is greater in countries with expanding economies they are inconsistent with the notion that banks trade off credit activities undertaken domestically and abroad

population technology and growth from malthusian stagnation to the demographic transition and beyond this paper develops a unied growth model that captures the historical evolution of population technology and output it encompasses theendogenous transitionbetween three regimes that have characterized economic development the economy evolves from amalthusianregime wheretechnologicalprogressis slow andpopulationgrowthprevents anysustainedriseinincomepercapita intoapost malthusianregime wheretechnological progress rises and population growth absorbs only part of output growth ultimately a demographic transition reverses the positive relationship between income and population growth andtheeconomyentersamoderngrowthregimewithreducedpopulationgrowth

a social interaction model with ordered choices abstract we introduce a social interaction model with ordered choices we provide a micro foundation for the econometric model based on an incomplete information network game and characterize the sufficient condition for the existence of a unique equilibrium of the game we discuss the identification of the model and propose to estimate the model by the nfxp and npl algorithms we conduct monte carlo simulations to investigate the finite sample performance of these two estimation methods

foreign bank behavior during financial crises one of the persistent policy problems faced by governments contemplating financial liberalizations is the question of whether to allow foreign banks entry into the domestic economy this question has become ever more urgent in recent times due to rapid financial globalization coupled with the credit contractions experienced as a result of the 2007 08 financial crisis this paper examines the question of whether opening the financial sector to foreign participation is a good idea for developing countries using a unique bank level database of foreign ownership in particular the authors examine whether the credit supply of majority foreign owned financial institutions differ systematically conditional on a crisis event in their home economies they show that foreign banks that were exposed to crises in their home countries exhibit changes in lending patterns that are lower by between 13 and 42 percent than their non crisis counterparts

the determinants of us banking activity abroad abstract the banking industry provides an excellent example of the internationalization of world business and economic interdependencies across countries analysis of the past growth of international banking operations can also prove useful to banks interested in augmenting their current business or expanding their international coverage and to banks who anticipated future competition in their markets from new or strengthened foreign competitors this study provides the most comprehensive examination of the development of us bank branches in other countries is presented and tested in order to facilitate the understanding of the expansion of international banking

revisiting the new normal hypothesis abstract the paper estimates the impact of crises on output growth augmenting cerra and saxena s 2008 analysis by extending the data until 2010 and by taking into account globalization and contagion effects the paper finds that the decline in output growth rates following currency banking and stock market crises are much larger in the sample ending in 2010 than in the one ending in 2001 the results are robust across different specifications and crisis databases the paper finds that globalization estimated using a factor augmented panel has benefitted economic growth in the long run but those gains have been diminishing in the new millennium moreover globalization also amplifies the negative effects of crises especially for upper middle and high income oecd countries starting with the new millenium as such lower output growth is to be expected as the new norm especially in these more advanced economies for a lot longer than what would have been expected in an usual cyclical recovery confirming el erian and pimco s 2009 statement of a new normal last but not least the estimation using a factor augmented panel leads to results consistent with thresholds effects of finance and growth and of globalization on growth