the beveridge curve and labour market dynamics in turkey this article investigates the dynamics of unemployment and vacancy rates in turkey during the period 1951 to 2008 by means of a beveridge curve bc the time series analysis of unemployment and vacancies as well as two other relevant labour market variables real wages and real labour productivity strongly suggests inefficiency in the turkish labour market a stable long run relationship between unemployment rate and vacancy rate is found for turkey that is the existence of a negatively sloped bc is verified the estimated turkish bc reflects the structural problems and lack of flexibility in the labour market the modified bc with real wages and labour productivity reveals that labour productivity has no significant effect on unemployment rate whereas wages have positive and significant effects on the same variable

the effects of tax policy on aggregate agricultural investment the effects of tax policies on aggregate agricultural investment are examined results from this analysis suggest that tax policies are effective in promoting agricultural investment nearly 20 percent of net investment in agricultural equipment during the period 1956 through 1978 is attributed to tax policy from 1956 to 1978 tax policy has stimulated in real dollars over 5 billion in net investment in equipment and in excess of 1 billion in structures

income distribution political instability and investment abstract this paper successfully tests on a sample of 71 countries for the period 1960 85 the following hypotheses income inequality by fuelling social discontent increases sociopolitical instability the latter by creating uncertainty in the politico economic environment reduces investment as a consequence income inequality and investment are inversely related since investment is a primary engine of growth this paper identifies a channel for an inverse relationship between income inequality and growth we measure socio political instability with indices which capture the occurrence of more or less violent phenomena of political unrest and we test our hypotheses by estimating a two equation model in which the endogenous variables are investment and an index of socio political instability our results are robust to sensitivity analysis on the specification of the model and the measure of political instability and are unchanged when the model is estimated using robust regression techniques

a study of the impact of sectoral shifts on aggregate unemployment in canada the recent trend in macro economic literature has been to explain cycles in aggregate output and employment in terms of unexpected nominal shocks only in these models the natural rate of unemployment is constant this paper diverges from this approach and following a recent paper by david lilien 1982 considers the impact of real as well as nominal variables the main findings are 1 a significant part of the fluctuations in the canadian unemployment over the 1957 83 period was caused by real shocks to the economy and 2 most of the transmission of the business cycle from the united states to canada is effected through real variables as well une etude de limpact de deplacements sectoriels sur le niveau de ch6mage agrege au canada dans la litterature macroeconomique recente on a eu tendance a expliquer les cycles dans le niveau de la production et de l emploi a peu pres strictement en termes de chocs nominaux non anticipes dans ces modeles le taux de ch6mage naturel est constant ce memoire prend des distances par rapport a cette approche et suit pluto t la direction suggeree par un memoire recent de david lilien qui considere l impact des variables reelles tout autant que celui des variables nominales les resultats principaux sont 1 une portion significative des fluctuations dans le niveau du chomage canadien entre 1957 et 1983 a et causee par des chocs reels subis par l economie 2 le gros de h1 transmission du cycle economique des etats unis vers le canada se fait par le truchement des variables reelles

oil and the macroeconomy since world war ii all but one of the u s recessions since world war ii have been preceded typically with a lag of around three fourths of a year by a dramatic increase in the price of crude petroleum this does not mean that oil shocks caused these recessions evidence is presented however that even over the period 1948 72 this correlation is statistically significant and nonspurious supporting the proposition that oil shocks were a contributing factor in at least some of the u s recessions prior to 1972 by extension energy price increases may account for much of post opec macroeconomic performance

sectoral shifts and cyclical unemployment a substantial fraction of cyclical unemployment is better characterized as fluctuations of the frictional or natural rate than as deviations from some relatively stable natural rate shifts of employment demand between sectors of the economy necessitate continuous labor reallocation since it takes time for workers to find new jobs some unemployment is unavoidable this paper presents evidence that most of the unemployment fluctuations of the seventies unlike those in the sixties were induced by unusual structural shifts within the u s economy simple time series models of layoffs and unemployment are constructed that include a measure of structural shifts within the labor market these models are estimated and a derived natural rate series is constructed

current account dynamics and the terms of trade harberger laursen metzler two generations later this is a study of the current account dynamics resulting from the savings and investment dynamics in a small open economy which is subject to exogenous changes in its terms of trade and in world interest rates anticipated and unanticipated as well as temporary and permanent terms of trade changes have very different effects there is however a general tendency towards cycles in both savings and investment which gives rise to cycles in the current account it is shown that the classic harberger laursen metzler effect on saving of a terms of trade deterioration can have any sign for plausible parameter values both for temporary and permanent disturbances

a note on time preference and the tobin effect abstract this paper proposes an alternative time preference specification to uzawa preferences time preference is modeled as an increasing function of real wealth so that the tobin effect and stability rest on optimizing behavior as opposed to counterintuitive preference assumptions

a theory of infrastructure led development abstract this paper proposes a theory of long run development based on public infrastructure as the engine of growth the government in addition to investing in infrastructure spends on health services which in turn raise labor productivity and lower the rate of time preference infrastructure affects the production of both commodities and health services as a result of network effects the degree of efficiency of infrastructure is nonlinearly related to the stock of public capital itself provided that governance is adequate enough to ensure a sufficient degree of efficiency of public investment an increase in the share of spending on infrastructure financed by a cut in unproductive expenditure or foreign grants may facilitate the shift from a low growth equilibrium characterized by low productivity and low savings to a high growth steady state

empirical measurement of credit rationing in agriculture a methodological survey empirical analysis of rural credit market failure has been of key scientific and political interest in recent years the aim of this article is to give an overview of the various methods for measuring credit rationing that are employed in the literature furthermore the methods are subjected to a comparative evaluation of their specific strengths or shortcomings six approaches are distinguished measurement of loan transaction costs analysis of qualitative information collected in interviews analysis of quantitative information collected in interviews using the credit limit concept analysis of spill over effects with regard to secondary credit sources econometric household modeling and the econometric analysis of dynamic investment decisions an explicit comparison with a first best solution is impossible in the first three approaches since they essentially rely on a subjective assessment of borrowers access to credit based on qualitative or quantitative indicators the fifth and sixth approaches allow a rigorous interpretation in the framework of neoclassical equilibrium theory the fourth approach takes an intermediate position since spill over on segmented loan markets reveals a willingness to pay with regard to the supposedly less expensive but rationed primary source the approaches are fairly data demanding in general usually requiring specific data on loan transactions even so most approaches are applicable to cross sectional household data with the exception of the first all methods surveyed might plausibly be used to empirically detect credit rationing

how natural is canada s high unemployment rate abstract a reduced form price equation for canada 1956 1984 yields a stable estimate of 4 9 percent for the natural unemployment rate of men aged 25 and over with strong evidence against hysteresis once structural influences are accounted for the resulting profile for the aggregate natural unemployment rate rises smoothly from 5 5 percent in 1961 to a maximum of 8 0 percent in 1977 1978 and then declines rapidly to 6 4 percent in 1985 calculations based on an estimated production structure for the aggregate non energy sector of canada provide additional evidence against the excess real wage hypothesis and for the view that the recent fluctuations in canada s unemployment rate are mostly of the keynesian variety

comparative analysis of investment models for new york dairy farms traditional and dynamic investment models were estimated using farm level dairy data the traditional model predicted more variability in desired capital and less variability in the adjustment rate than did the dynamic model overall the traditional model performed better both models suggest a significant delay between changes in the determinants of desired capital stock and the actual investment expenditure new york dairy farmers may be making more extensive use of existing capital before making additional expenditures another explanation may be our use of farm level data where investment is periodic and discrete most other studies have used aggregate data

unravelling the mystery of regional unemployment in finland b ockerman p 2003 unravelling the mystery of regional unemployment in finland reg studies 37 331 340 the study explores the determination of regional unemployment in finland the evaluation of regional labour markets is based on unique linked panel data that is created by matching the conventional economic fundamentals with the measures based on gross flows of jobs and workers the striking empirical finding is that the reorganization of labour markets lowers the unemployment rate in the finnish regions in other words the reallocation of labour resources seems to be good for regional employment b ockerman p 2003 demystifier le chomage re gional en finlande reg studies 37 331 340 cette etude cherche a examiner la determination du chomage regional en finlande l evaluation des marches du travail est fonde e sur des donnees uniques rassemblees aupres des e chantillons permanents liees et obtenues en mettant en rapport les fondements economiques conventionnels avec les mesures basees sur l

the beveridge curve in europe new evidence using national and regional data the beveridge curve depicts the empirical negative relationship between job vacancy rate and unemployment rate and reflects the efficiency of the job matching process movements along a fixed downward sloping beveridge curve are associated with cyclical shocks while shifts of the curve arise from structural factors that alter the matching efficiency between job vacancies and unemployed workers national and regional data on job vacancies and unemployment are combined to estimate the beveridge curves of five european countries and their regions focusing on the period 1975 to 2004 i also analyse whether shifts in european beveridge curves are due to changes in the composition of the unemployed pool labour market rigidities or cyclical and structural shocks the empirical evidence suggests that changes in labour market rigidities long term unemployment as well as cyclical shocks are responsible for outward shifts in european beveridge curves i also find evidence of nonlinearities in the relation betw

stock market dispersion and unemployment abstract the sectoral shifts hypothesis advanced by lilien 1982 and davis 1987 suggests that unemployment is in part the result of resources being reallocated from declining to expanding sectors of the economy using u s data from 1931 to 1987 we test this hypothesis by constructing an index measuring the dispersion among stock prices from different industries we find that lagged values of this index significantly affect unemployment we show that the stock market dispersion index is less contaminated by aggregate demand influences than lilien s employment dispersion index which makes our test less vulnerable to the abraham and katz 1986 critique

unemployment in canada and the united states reduced form unemployment equations containing aggregate demand structural and frictional variables are estimated for canada and the united states post 1981 increases in unemployment rates are explained almost entirely by aggr egate demand variables although structural sectoral variables make i mportant contributions to changes in the gap between the two countrie s unemployment rates for both countries the results support the fo llowing monetarist propositions monetary variables are the prime determinants of the business cycle exogenous investment shocks are typically of minor importance and macro policy has tended to be dest abilizing

international evidence on the long run impact of inflation in this paper i use a structural vector autoregression framework to analyze the effects of a permanent change in inflation on the long run real interest rate and real output level in 14 industrialized countries long run monetary superneutrality is rejected for all 14 countries using annual data the results indicate that a permanent increase in inflation lowers the long run real interest rate in each country a permanent increase in inflation also increases the long run real output level in a number of countries long run monetary superneutrality is also rejected for four out of the five countries examined using quarterly data under long run monetary superneutrality lrsn a per

some puzzles about money finance and the monetary circuit this paper discusses three puzzles about money and finance having to do with the velocity of circulation the marxian concept of the monetary circuit and the deceptively simple question of whether there is enough money in existence at any point in time to purchase the full value of output these issues take on particular significance at times of economic and financial crisis but have often been neglected by the mainstream of the economics profession leaving the field to keynes s brave heretics

the beveridge curve and regional disparities in canada the beveridge curve establishes an inverse relationship between the unemployment rate and the vacancy rate it has been documented and discussed at length by blanchard and diamond 1989 for the united states the unemployment vacancy relationships of the canadian economy and its regions are considered this analysis reveals some important distinctions in the behaviour of the regional baveridge curves and some interesting similarities at the aggregate level the observations are not strikingly different from those of blanchard and diamond for the us economy

net investment in farm tractors an econometric analysis a wide range of assumptions about the capital deterioration and marginal factor cost of tractors has been made in previous studies this study develops a measure of the implicit rental price of tractors which accounts for the capital structure used by farmers the capacity depreciation of tractors and income tax considerations estimates of net investment models for alternative capacity depreciation patterns are compared to those suggested by engineering considerations the results show that the frequently used geometric decay pattern does the poorest job of explaining annual real net investment in farm tractors

distributive politics and economic growth a crude distinction between economics and politics would be that economics is concerned with expanding the pie while politics is about distributing it in this paper we analyze the relationship between the two we focus on how an economy s initial configuration of resources shapes the political struggle for income and wealth distribution and how that in turn affects long run growth our main conclusion is that inequality is conducive to the adoption of growth retarding policies we derive this result from a simple political economy model of growth and present cross country evidence consistent with it the key feature of our model is that individuals differ in their relative factor endowments we distinguish between two types of factors an accumulated factor called capital and a nonaccumulated factor called labor growth is driven by the expansion of the capital stock which is in turn determined by individual saving decisions long run growth is endogenous as the aggregate production function is taken to be linearly homogeneous in capital and productive government services taken together the provision of government services is financed by a tax on capital because government services are productive a small tax on

regional beveridge curves a latent variable approach dixon r lim g c and freebairn j regional beveridge curves a latent variable approach regional studies this paper applies an unobserved components model to a panel of australian data to identify the direction and timing of the shifts in regional beveridge curves the approach identifies a common factor while allowing for region specific effects the common factor that drives the relationship between regional unemployment and vacancy rates is extracted and it is then related to various explanatory variables the contribution of common shocks to fluctuations in regional unemployment ranges from 18 to 68 the paper demonstrates the usefulness of a latent variable approach and in relation to policy the findings suggest the need for an explicit regional policy to tackle unemployment in australia

why are latin america s savings rates so low an international comparative analysis abstract this paper presents a theoretical and empirical assessment of the determinants of savings rates with special emphasis on latin american savings rates the study is based on international comparisons using data from 36 countries for 1970 1992 a distinction is made between private and public savings the later are endogenously determined by economic and political variables per capita income growth is the most important determinant of private and public savings public savings are lower in countries with higher political instability public savings crowd out private savings but less than proportionately low latin american savings are due to the magnitudes of their determinants rather than structural differences

evidence of the fisher effect from u k indexed bonds newly available data from the u k market for indexed securities are used to test the fisher hypothesis for monthly observations of interest rates at 14 maturities the hypothesis that the after tax nominal interest rate is a constant plus anticipated inflation proves to be a reasonable approximation of reality for longer maturities the coefficients on the expected rate of inflation are approximately equal to one the mundell tobin effect is in evidence for shorter maturities the inverted fisher effect is in evidence for shorter maturities the inverted fisher effect is decisively rejected the evidence suggests that past difficulties encountered in trying to prove the fisher effect have been due to the lack of a direct measure of inflation expectations and real interest rates copyright 1992 by mit press