gender occupational segregation and its impact on the gender wage differential among rural urban migrants a chinese case study since the late 1980s massive rural urban migration in china has attracted considerable attention from economists and policymakers both within and outside china one of the most striking features of rural urban migration is that job attainment among the migrants differs considerably between males and females it is of great interest to know the reasons for this difference and more importantly whether gender occupational segregation has a large impact on the gender wage differential among migrants this paper examines these issues using data on 1504 migrants collected in jinan city shandong province it is found that gender occupational segregation in this sector is mainly due to the unequal treatment of male and female attributes in occupational assignment and that this contributes very significantly to the gender wage differential among migrants a comparison with another study on china s rural industrial labour market is made which suggest that intra occupational gender wage discrimination is l

the effect of occupational segregation on the relative earnings of black males abstract an earnings model which incorporates racial differences in occupational attainment is employed to investigate sources of the earnings differential between black and white males our results suggest that occupational segregation of black men accounts for nearly half of the observed racial earnings differential

the gender earnings differential in the russian transition economy using data from the russia longitudinal monitoring survey rlms the first nationally representative household survey in the russian federation the author examines the gender earnings differentia

occupational self selection a human capital approach to sex differences in occupational structure a rich and diverse literature exists concerning the distribution of labor incomes one approach namely that of human capital concentrates on lifetime accumulation paths of earnings capacity units human capital individual variations in human capital imply differences in earnings power thereby yielding strong implications concerning earnings distribution within a population despite its explanatory power the human capital model has been widely criticized one criticism centers on its inability to obtain inferences concerning occupational distribution the purpose of this paper is to alleviate at least some such criticism by applying the hedonic price approach so as to embed occupational choice into the human capital framework the significance is that neoclassical economic theory can be used to obtain implications concerning the determinants of occupational structure excerpt

incentives and the efficiency of public sector outsourcing contracts abstract outsourcing the provision of traditionally publicly provided services has become commonplace in most industrialized nations despite its prevalence there still is no consensus in the academic literature on the magnitude and determinants of expected cost savings to the government nor the sources of those savings this article considers the arguments for and against outsourcing and then examines the empirical evidence pertaining to whether any observed savings occur and whether they persist over time in addition we examine the existing evidence for the redistribution hypothesis and the quality shading hypothesis which critics have used to argue that outsourcing lowers government expenditure by lowering wages and conditions and or lower quality services finally we consider the impact of contract design on outsourcing outcomes while the power of incentives is a strong theme in economics recent work has suggested that high powered incentives may be suboptimal for many public sector services because they may crowd out intrinsic motivation particularly in instances where agents are highly motivated we discuss the implications of this insight for the efficiency of public sector outsourcing

herding with and without payoff externalities an internet experiment most real world situations that are susceptible to herding are also characterized by direct payoff externalities yet the bulk of the theoretical and experimental literature on herding has focused on pure informational externalities in this paper we experimentally investigate the effects of several different forms of payoff externalities e g network effects first mover advantage etc in a standard information based herding model our results are based on an internet experiment with more than 6000 subjects of which more than 2400 participated in the treatments reported here including a subsample of 267 consultants from an international consulting firm we also replicate and review earlier cascade experiments finally we study reputation effects i e the influence of success models in the context of herding

peer pressure and partnerships partnerships and profit sharing are often claimed to motivate workers by giving them a share of the pie but in organizations of any significant size the free rider effects would seem to choke off

the wage effect of the occupational segregation of women in britain married females earn around 60 percent of the male rate of pay part of this wage difference der ives from inequality of pay within occupations and part derives from the different occupational distributions of the male and female workf orces this paper merges models of occupational attainment and gender wage distributions it shows that the gender wage difference derives largely from wage differences within occupations the effect of fema le nonparticipation in the paid workforce is found to be an important aspect of occupational attainment as well as of pay differences with in occupations copyright 1987 by royal economic society

productivity in public services abstract this paper discusses issues arising in the measurement of productivity in public services compared to measuring productivity in the private sector difficulties arise because the output of public services is often unpriced and because some public services are consumed collectively a key problem is measuring the full range of outputs and quality improvements delivered by public sector organizations that are valued by society without comprehensive measures of output productivity statistics may be misleading i outline methods used in the measurement of both private and public sector productivity and discuss the measurement of public sector productivity in practice finally i discuss studies that examine factors underlying productivity differences and productivity growth in public and private sector organizations public sector reforms and the use of pilot schemes in public sector organizations present opportunities for research to identify causal effects on productivity

does the level of occupational aggregation affect estimates of the gender wage gap the traditional decomposition of the gender wage gap distinguishes between a component attributable to gender differences in productivity related characteristics and a residual component that is often taken as a measure of discrimination this study of data from the 1989 canadian labour market activity survey shows that when occupation is treated as a productivity related characteristic the proportion of the gender wage gap labeled explained increases with the number of occupational classifications distinguished however on the basis of evidence that occupational differences reflect the presence of barriers faced by women attempting to enter male dominated occupations the authors conclude that occupation should not be treated as a productivity related characteristic and in a decomposition of the gender wage gap that treats occupation as endogenously determined they find that the level of occupational aggregation has little effect on the size of the explained component of the gap

unequal assignment and unequal promotion in job ladders in this study gender differentials in professional status attainment are analyzed in the theoretical literature unequal treatment of females is often rationalized by their higher probability of quitting to test this hypothesis empirically we use data from the austrian microcensus and find that neither the risk of childbearing nor different productive characteristics can explain the crowding of females in lower hierarchical positions females have to fulfill higher ability standards to be promoted work experience is not rewarded in the same manner as it is for men

general economic conditions and national elections the fact that economic conditions influence voters is a leading commonplace of conversation in election years the question is is this fact in fact a fact despite the overwhelming popularity of the fact it has received neither an explicit theoretical analysis presumably because it is so obvious that economic adversity should create political adversaries nor until recently a satisfactory statistical analysis gerald h kramer has presented a multivariate analysis of congressional elections which would strongly suggest that fluctuations in the rate of unemployment have no appreciable effect upon elections but that fluctuations in per capita real income are influential in the following pages i propose to 1 reaffirm his finding on the electoral unimportance of ordinary fluctuations in unemployment 2 argue that contrary to kramer fluctuations in real income also do not have important electoral effects and 3 present an argument based upon rational voter behavior for the unimportance of general economic conditions in national elections

electoral information in developed stock market testing conditional heteroscedasticity in the market model this investigates the influence of major electoral information on abnormal returns around the announcement date in the developed stock market and examines whether these explanatory variables are associated with observed cumulative abnormal returns using a regression analysis the analytical results demonstrate that average abnormal returns are significantly negative before the date of the announcement of the results of a general election on days 6 and 3 and after that announcement date on days 4 6 and 10 this phenomenon can be attributed to hedging activity of the investors to reduce risk

incentives for motivated agents under an administrative constraint consider an agent who has an expertise in producing a non marketable good this good is valued by a single principal and there is a verifiable measure of the agent s performance crucially the agent is intrinsically motivated due to warm glow altruism in addition the agent s budget which is controlled by the principal must not be less than the monetary performance cost faced by the agent this gives rise to a limited liability constraint it also restricts the agent s ability to under report costs in such environment we determine the link between the agent s budget and performance our results come in contrast to the received solution of the principal agent problem and to most in the literature on mission motivated organisations and public services provision

detecting and removing discrimination under equal opportunities policies abstract this paper surveys part of the recent voluminous literature on the economics of discrimination focusing on two key questions first how should discrimination be measured and can in fact unambiguous estimates be derived as the basis for detecting where discrimination is present and setting in train measures to eliminate it second to what extent has the implementation of equal opportunities legislation improved the relative standing of women and minority workers in the labour force this section includes a discussion of the likely effects of recent changes in the law such as the equal value amendment in the uk or the introduction of comparable worth in the usa the survey concludes that our ability to detect discrimination at all precisely is still rudimentary and consequently policy measures are likely to be inefficient for this reason

compensating outside directors with stock the impact on non primary stakeholders two obvious trends in corporate governance include broadening board accountability beyond shareholders interests and paying outside directors with equity compensation stock and stock options by integrating common agency and instrumental stakeholder theories we examine the effect of stock compensation on secondary stakeholders and a firm s participation in social issues two areas where interests are less aligned with shareholder value consistent with our predictions we found that while stock compensation may be an effective way to align directors goals to those of shareholders it has adverse effects on important non shareholder constituencies in the company s operating environment

face to face communication in organizations communication is integral to organizations and yet field evidence on the relation between communication and worker productivity remains scarce we argue that a core role of communication is to transmit information that helps co workers do their job better we build a simple model in which workers choose the amount of communication by trading off this benefit against the time cost incurred by the sender and use it to derive a set of empirical predictions we then exploit a natural experiment in an organization where problems arrive and must be sequentially dealt with by two workers for exogenous reasons the first worker can sometimes communicate face to face with their colleague consistently with the predictions of our model we find that 1 the second worker works faster at the cost of the first worker having less time to deal with incoming problems when face to face communication is possible 2 this effect is stronger when the second worker is busier and for homogenous and closely located teams and 3 the career incentives of workers determine how much they communicate with their colleagues we also find that workers partially internalise social outcomes in their communication decisions our findings illustrate how workers in teams adjust the amount of mutual communication to its costs and benefits

occupational segregation and selectivity bias in occupational wage equations an empirical analysis using irish data the gender wage effects of occupational segregation are assessed within the framework of occupational attachment and wage equations this paper exploits the modified index number approach suggested by brown et al 1980 and used recently by miller 1987 however neither of these papers allowed for the potential effects of selectivity bias in occupational wage equations in this study selectivity bias is corrected for using the method outlined in lee 1983 this allows for the effects of occupational selectivity buas on the gender wage gap to be assessed the findings for this sample of young lrish workers suggest that the greater part of the female wage disadvantage lies in intraoccupational wage differences furthermore selectivity bias is found to be important for a number of occupational categories

subjective performance measures in optimal incentive contracts objective measures of performance are seldom perfect in response incentive contracts often include important subjective components that mitigate incentive distortions caused by imperfect objective measures this paper explores the combined use of subjective and objective performance measures in respectively implicit and explicit incentive contracts naturally objective and subjective measures often are substitutes sometimes strikingly so we show that if objective measures are sufficiently close to perfect then no implicit contracts are feasible because the firm s fallback position after reneging on an implicit contract is too attractive we also show however that objective and subjective measures can reinforce each other if objective measures become more accurate then in some circumstances the optimal contract puts more weight on subjective measures because the improved objective measures increase the value of the ongoing relationship and so reduce the firm s incentive to renege we also analyze the use of subjective weights on objective performance measures and provide case study evidence consistent with our analyses

the impact of party alternative on the stock market the case of japan this paper tries to clarify whether change in political regime has an effect on the behaviour of the stock market in japan the empirical study finds that the transition of ruling party effect is not a crucial variable to the nikkei 225 the alienation felt by the japanese about the political environment resulting in a succession of prime ministers does not influence the nikkei 225 stock market behaviour therefore former prime ministers who have resigned have become scapegoats for the poor performance of financial and economic policies

wage discrimination occupational segregation and visible minorities in canada the earnings gap between each of whites asians and blacks is decomposed into the effects on earnings of productivity related characteristics wage discrimination and occupational segregation unlike previous canadian studies this paper analyses the relative economic position of both immigrant and native born visible minorities and explicitly incorporates the effect of discrimination in occupational attainment on the earnings gap the results indicate that policies aimed at increasing the ethnic representation across occupational categories would be effective only for black men anti discrimination legislation aimed at decreasing the earnings gap between visible minority and white women should have a dual focus they should aim at reducing the inter occupational wage discrimination they should provide training programs to extend the career ladders confronting ethnic minority women

occupational segregation and wage differentials between natives and immigrants evidence from hong kong abstract this paper attempts to provide the first set of evidence on the intra and inter occupational earnings differentials between immigrants and the native by studying hong kong 1996 census data we found that the intra occupational earnings differential is slightly more important than the inter occupational earnings differential comparing with the literature on gender wage differentials immigrants seem to face more barriers to entry into good occupations than females in a relative sense moreover most of the intra occupational differential is unexplained occupational segregation gets smaller as the duration of residence rises and does not exist for immigrants who came to hong kong at young ages

the public private sector gender wage differential in britain evidence from matched employee workplace data this article shows that little of the gender earnings gap in the public and private sectors in britain are explained by differences in employee characteristics the differences in workplace characteristics however make a significant sizeable contribution it is shown that performance related pay and company pension schemes are associated with higher relative earnings in the private sector whilst increased provision of family friendly employment practices in the public sector is associated with higher relative earnings for women

wage discrimination across ethnic groups evidence from israel i introduction wage differentials and occupational segregation have been intensively studied and well documented in the economic literature empirical analyses have demonstrated differences by gender and ethnicity and theoretical studies have attempted to explain the results polachek 1975 1993 leads the group that emphasizes human capital differences in explaining wage differences and segregation while bergmann 1974 1986 is in the forefront of a second group of scholars who claim that discrimination is the major source of inequality of wages and occupations in the united states race differentials in earnings and racial segregation decreased dramatically during the 1960s and the 1970s but sex differentials did not in 1980 the duncans 1955 segregation index calculated by fuchs 1989 across 503 occupations was about 30 for blacks versus whites and about 60 for men versus women 1 fuchs 1989 also showed that by 1980 the wage differential between white and black men 15 percent was less than half the difference between white men and white women 40 percent polachek and siebert 1993 137 39 present data showing that in 1990 the pay of u s women averaged 65 to 90 percent of that of men depending on the occupational category the gap has been relatively constant but there is some evidence that it has been narrowing in recent years they also find that earning ratios by occupation in the u k are very similar to parallel ratios in the u s chiswick 1983a 1983b and carlson and swartz 1988 among others examine earnings of ethnic minorities they find that most ethnic groups fare quite poorly compared to the white population but a few minorities jews chinese and japanese do as well or even better than the white majority the earnings gap for most groups declined over the 1960s and the 1970s and the portion of that gap that might be assignable to discrimination also declined in this study we examine ethnic wage differentials discrimination and segregation in the israeli labor market israel provides a tailor made setting for ethnic studies since its jewish population 4 335 million in 1993 consists of people with a large diversity in their countries of origin the first wave of jewish immigrants following the establishment of the state of israel in 1948 were holocaust survivors from europe or refugees from the predominantly moslem countries of north africa the middle east and yemen others came from north and south america western europe south africa and australia to live a more meaningful jewish life in the homeland israel encouraged and assisted these immigrants as part of an active pro immigration ideology and policy the main wave of immigration arrived in the late 1940s and early 1950s as friedlander 1975 shows between 1948 and 1952 the jewish population in israel increased from about 630 000 to nearly one and a half million an annual average growth rate of over 24 percent later there were three significant waves of immigration the first occurred at the beginning of the 1960s with annual immigration reaching an average of 57 000 per year an increase of 2 percent per year in population the second occurred in 1972 73 when 55 000 immigrants arrived annually an annual population increase of 1 7 percent the third large wave began in august 1989 with a massive influx of immigrants from the former u s s r generating about a 10 percent increase in the population in the years 1990 93 the absolute figures are 199 516 immigrants in 1990 176 100 in 1991 77 057 in 1992 and 66 145 in 1993 israel central bureau of statistics 1994 in 1991 about 15 000 ethiopian jews also arrived in israel the major ethnic division in israel is based on the country of origin although jews of various origins speak a number of different languages and perceive themselves as having some distinctive ethnic characteristics the main distinction is between jews originating from asia and africa excluding south africa easterners and those from america europe south africa and australia westerners

occupational segregation and the gender wage gap in a dynamic east asian economy labor markets in the east asian miracle economies have undergone profound changes in recent decades as their comparative advantage in low wage labor diminished and jobs shifted toward higher skill manufacturing and services this study uses an occupational decomposition technique to examine how such shifts in east asia s occupational structures have affected trends in their gender wage gaps the wage gap is decomposed into across occupation and within occupation factors that are each further separated into wage and employment components results based on a comprehensive labor force data set for taiwan show that within occupation pay discrepancies account for the bulk of gender wage inequity

optimistic behavior when a decision bias is costly an experimental test the existence of optimism when biased decisions are costly is investigated experimentally subjects make an informed guess about an exogenously determined event the outside temperature a couple of days later payments in the control group depend only on how close the guess was to the realized temperature while payments in the treatment group also depend positively on realized temperature the data show the treatment group subjects to guess higher temperatures that is higher payments compared with the control group results thus indicate that there is optimism also when a decision bias is costly jel c91 d81 d84

public service motivation as an argument for government provision a public service motivation psm inclines employees to provide effort out of concern for the impact of that effort on a valued social service though deemed to be important in the literature on public administration this motivation has not been formally considered by economists when a psm exists this paper establishes conditions under which government bureaucracy can better obtain psm motivated effort from employees than a standard profit maximizing firm the model also provides an efficiency rationale for low powered incentives in both bureaucracies and other organizations producing social services 2000 elsevier science s a all rights reserved

bread and the attrition of power economic events and german election results aggregate votes for incumbent parties in post war germany were determined by the weighted average growth of real per capita disposable income each percentage point of per capita real disposable income growth sustained over the legislative term yielded approximately two percentage points of votes in germany no other economic variables add value or significantly perturb the coefficients of our model however attrition of power reduced the vote share in election years 1961 1994 and 1998

is there an optimistic bias on betting markets bettors are subject to an optimistic bias when betting on the team they support this paper shows that this individual bias does not affect betting odds on british teams in association football soccer as it is often argued

tournament incentives and asset price bubbles evidence from a field experiment abstract in this note we show at the example of an experimental stock market conducted on the occasion of the world soccer championship 2010 in south africa how tournament incentives might contribute to the formation of asset price bubbles

gender discrimination in the british labour market a reassessment survey wes the wes is the first british survey to collect detailed work histories and earnings data for a nationally representative sample of british women therefore for the first time estimates of discrimination based on real work experience data are presented a number of the earlier studies use data from the general household survey which does not collect actual work experience data they have been forced to use potential work experience or imputed experience in their wage equations this paper compares estimates based on potential or imputed experience with those based on actual experience using wes data our analysis finds that estimates of the parameters of a women s earnings function and a summary measure of gender discrimination using a measure of imputed experience differ little from those based on actual experience indeed our estimates of gender discrimination are very robust to estimation method and only slightly higher than miller s i987 estimate for i980 these estimates indicate that the oft quoted and influential study by zabalza and arrufat i 982 i 985 which pioneered the use of imputed experience severely underestimated the level of gender discrimination and exaggerated the impact

heterogeneity of beliefs and trade in experimental asset markets we investigate the relationship between traders expectations and market outcomes with experimental asset market data the data show that those who have high price expectations buy more frequently and submit higher bids and those who hold low price expectations sell more frequently and submit lower bids traders who have more accurate expectations achieve greater earnings simulations using only belief data reproduce the pricing patterns observed in the market well indicating that the heterogeneity of expectations is a key to explaining market activity

using market prices to predict election results the 1993 ubc election stock market economists believe that markets are exceptionally efficient aggregators of information this research tests this theory by asking whether markets can successfully predict uncertain outcomes specifically the ubc election stock market ubc esm was created to see if market prices could be accurate predictors of the outcome of the 1993 canadian federal election this paper presents the results of this experiment in which over 250 traders from across canada and the united states participated investing over 30 000 the structure and workings of the market are explained in some detail and the performance of the market is reviewed the market predicted the popular vote shares of the major parties very well but did less well at predicting the split of seats between the liberal and conservative parties coauthors are murray frank vasu krishnamurthy and thomas w ross

piece rate incentive schemes this paper uses recent results from incentive theory to study heretofore informal critiques of piece rate compensation schemes the informal critiques are based on the history of failed attempts to install piece rate compensation schemes at the turn of the century the formal analysis emphasizes the importance of information and commitment in contracting the main result is as follows in a work environment characterized by hidden information and a hidden action if neither the firm nor the worker can commit to future behavior then no compensation scheme piece rate or otherwise can induce the worker not to restrict output

the dynamics of incentive contracts the paper studies a simple two period principal agent model in which the principal updates the incentive scheme after observing the agent s first period performance the agent has superior information about his ability the principal offers a first period incentive scheme and observes some measure of the agent s first period performance cost or profit which depends on the agent s ability and unobservable first period effort the relationship is entirely run by short term contracts in the second period the principal updates the incentive scheme and the agent is free to accept the new incentive scheme or to quit the strategies are required to be perfect and updating of the principal s beliefs about the agent s ability follows bayes rule the central theme of the paper is that the ratchet effect leads to much pooling in the first period first for any first period incentive scheme there exists no separating equilibrium second when the uncertainty about the agent s ability is small the optimal scheme must involve a large amount of pooling the paper also gives necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of partition equilibria and looks at the effect of cost uncertainty

suckers are born but markets are made individual rationality arbitrage and market efficiency on an electronic futures market the iowa electronic markets are specially designed futures markets that appear to aggregate information efficiently to predict events such as election outcomes yet in theory perfect information aggregation is impossible further the markets are populated by a nonrepresentative sample of mistake prone and biased traders that is traders are prone to the behavioral anomalies predicted by behavioral finance how can this be reconciled with market efficiency here we take a first step by analyzing the behavior of two self selected types of traders dramatic differences in mistake rates across traders can help us answer the question market making traders who set prices are less mistake prone and appear to be more rational than price taking traders this highlights an important feature of markets marginal in this case market making not average traders set prices this can drive the efficiency of market prices in spite of large numbers of traders who display patently suboptimal behavior

the provision of incentives in firms i ncentives are the essence of economics despite many wide ranging claims about their supposed importance there has been little empirical assessment of incentive provision for workers the purpose of this paper is to critically overview existing work on the provision of incentives since the interests of workers and their employers are not always aligned a large theoretical literature has emphasized how firms design compensation contracts to induce employees to operate in the firm s interest this literature has reached into many areas of compensation and has pointed to a multitude of different mechanisms that can be used to induce workers to act in the interests of their employers these include piece rates options discretionary bonuses promotions profit sharing efficiency wages deferred compensation and so on my objective here is to evaluate this literature in the light of a growing empirical literature on compensation where possible i will address the literature from two perspectives first an underlying assumption of this literature is that individuals respond to contracts that reward performance accordingly i consider whether agents behave in this way and whether these responses are always in the firm s interest second i address whether firms write contracts with these responses in mind in other words do contracts look like the predictions of the theory incentives are provided to workers

the tenuous trade off between risk and incentives empirical work testing for a negative trade off between risk and incentives has not had much success the data suggest a positive relationship between measures of uncertainty and incentives rather than the posited negative trade off i argue that the existing literature fails to account for an important effect of uncertainty on incentives through the allocation of responsibility to employees when workers operate in certain settings firms are content to assign tasks to workers and monitor their inputs by contrast when the situation is more uncertain they delegate responsibility to workers but to constrain their discretion base compensation on observed output

incentives and targets in hospital care evidence from a natural experiment performance targets are commonly used in the public sector despite their well known problems when organisations have multiple objectives and performance is difficult to measure it is possible that such targets may work where there is considerable consensus that performance needs to be improved we investigate this possibility by examining the response of the english national health service to high profile waiting time targets we exploit a natural policy experiment between two countries of the uk england and scotland to establish the global effectiveness of the targets we then use a within england hospital analysis to confirm that responses vary by treatment intensity and to control for differences in resources which may accompany targets we find that targets met their goals of reducing waiting times without diverting activity from other less well monitored aspects of health care and without decreasing patient health on exit from hospital

piece rates fixed wages and incentive effects statistical evidence from payroll records we develop and estimate an agency model of worker behavior under piece rates and fixed wages the model implies optimal decision rules for the firm s choice of a compensation system as a function of working conditions our model also implies an upper and lower bound to the incentive effect the productivity gain realized by paying workers piece rates rather than fixed wages that can be estimated using regression methods using daily productivity data collected from the payroll records of a british columbia tree planting firm we estimate these bounds to be an 8 8 and a 60 4 percent increase in productivity structural estimation which accounts for the firm s optimal choice of a compensation system suggests that incentives caused a 22 6 percent increase in productivity however only part of this increase represents valuable output because workers respond to incentives in part by reducing quality

econometrics and presidential elections this paper discusses an econometric equation that explains votes for president as a function of economic events and incumbency information the history of the equation is reviewed the update after the 1992 election is discussed and a prediction for the 1996 election is made conditional on an economic forecast

the economics of career concerns part ii application to missions and accountability of government agencies the paper uses a simple multitask career concern model in order to analyse the incentives of government agencies officials incentives are impaired by the agency pursuing multiple missions a lack of focus is even more problematic in the case of fuzzy missions that is when outsiders are uncertain about the exact nature of the missions actually pursued by the agency consequently agencies pursuing multiple missions receive less autonomy the paper further shows that professionalization creates a sense of mission for the agency and that the specialization of officials raises their incentives last the paper compares its predictions with the stylized facts on government bureaucracies 1999 the review of economic studies limited

firms choice of method of pay using data from the bls industry wage survey the author tests the theory that firms choose their methods of pay by balancing the gains from more precise links between performance and pay against m

internet based virtual stock markets for business forecasting the application of internet based virtual stock markets vsms is an additional approach that can be used to predict short and medium term market developments the basic concept involves bringing a group of participants together via the internet and allowing them to trade shares of virtual stocks these stocks represent a bet on the outcome of future market situations and their value depends on the realization of these market situations in this process a vsm elicits and aggregates the assessments of its participants concerning future market developments the aim of this article is to evaluate the potential use and the different design possibilities as well as the forecast accuracy and performance of vsms compared to expert predictions for their application to business forecasting after introducing the basic idea of using vsms for business forecasting we discuss the different design possibilities for such vsms in three real world applications we analyze the feasibility and forecast accuracy of vsms compare the performance of vsms to expert predictions and propose a new validity test for vsm forecasts finally we draw conclusions and provide suggestions for future research

information in stock prices the case of the 2016 u s presidential election on the day before the 2016 u s presidential election the odds of hillary clinton winning the presidency according to political prediction markets were above 90 surprisingly donald trump won

wishes expectations and actions a survey on price formation in election stock markets abstract with error prone and biased individual traders can markets aggregate trader information and produce efficient outcomes we review election stock market evidence that suggests this does happen individual traders appear biased and error prone consistently yet these markets prove quite efficient in predicting election outcomes we also review work which documents comparable but substantially different phenomena in related laboratory markets in addition we report the results from a new laboratory session which shows how we can create particular biases that mirror those in election stock markets finally we discuss how combined laboratory and field experiments can help us understand trader market interactions

are bureaucrats paid like ceos performance compensation and turnover of top civil servants abstract recent research explores the effect of financial and career incentives on public sector hiring processes and subsequent performance the reverse relation between performance and bureaucrats compensation and turnover has received only limited attention due to the distinct features of public sector organizations bureaucrats are traditionally argued to require either permanent positions and fixed wages or low powered performance incentives this article studies how the performance of top civil servants in norwegian local governments affects their compensation and turnover we thereby build on a unique new dataset over the period 1991 2014 our results indicate that better performing top civil servants obtain a higher compensation and are less likely to be replaced nonetheless these incentives remain low powered in line with agency theory prescriptions

in accuracy of a european political stock market the influence of common value structures this paper presents the results of a political stock market in the netherlands pam94 the exchange covered three consecutive elections allowing trade on five different markets the predictions at pam94 appear to be less accurate than those of previous markets of comparable size of the possible explanations that we examine one in particular survives closer scrutiny it concerns a type of judgement failure related to the winner s curse in common value auctions theoretical as well as empirical support is offered apart from qualifying the attractiveness of such markets as an alternative for opinion polls this explanation may also be relevant for the analysis of other asset markets moreover this judgement failure may be more important for european political stock markets than for the u s because the structure of the common values vote shares at multiparty elections make them especially vulnerable to it

optimal incentives for teams much of the existing theory of incentives describes a static relationship that lasts for just one transaction this static assumption is not only unrealistic but the resulting predictions appear to be at odds with many work organizations the current paper introduces possible long term interaction among agents and studies how the design of explicit incentives and work organizations can exploit and interact with the implicit incentives generated by the repeated interaction of the agents the optimal incentive scheme is shown to display observed features of the increasingly popular teams such as the use of low powered group incentives

it s the economy and then some modeling the presidential vote with state panel data using data for the 50 us states for presidential elections from 1972 to 2004 two theories for determining state voting outcomes are considered jointly the economy matters and home grown ness theories fixed effects regressions show that measures of the economy matters real income unemployment and a proxy for inflation have the predicted effects on state voting patterns for presidential elections the home grown theory receives mixed support there is weak evidence that incumbent party candidates garner greater support in their home states there is strong support however for the proposition that incumbent party candidates fare worse in the home state of rival party candidates

aggregation and linearity in the provision of intertemporal incentives we consider the problem of providing incentives over time for an agent with constant absolute risk aversion the optimal compensation scheme is found to be a linear function of a vector of n accounts which count the number of times that each of the n kinds of observable events occurs the number n is independent of the number of time periods so the accounts may entail substantial aggregation in a continuous time version of the problem the agent controls the drift rate of a vector of accounts that is subject to frequent small random fluctuations the solution is as if the problem were the static one in which the agent controls only the mean of a multivariate normal distribution and the principal is constrained to use a linear compensation rule if the principal can observe only coarser linear aggregates such as revenues costs or profits the optimal compensation scheme is then a linear function of those aggregates the combination of exponential utility normal distributions and linear compensation schemes makes computations and comparative statics easy to do as we illustrate we interpret our linearity results as deriving in part from the richness of the agent s strategy space which makes it possible for the agent to undermine and exploit complicated nonlinear functions of the accounting aggregates

the theory of moral hazard and unobservable behaviour part i principal agent models are studied in which outcomes conditional on the agent s action are uncertain and the agent s behaviour therefore unobservable for a model with bounded agent s utility conditions are given under which the first best equilibrium can be approximated arbitrarily closely by contracts relating payment to observable outcomes for general models it is shown that the solution may not always be obtained by using the agent s first order conditions as constraint general conditions of lagrangean type are given for problems in which contracts are finite dimensional 1 the moral hazard situation

the making of economic policy a transaction cost politics perspective economic policymaking as a political process the normative approach to policy analysis the positive view of political economy a synthesis the policy process in real time a theme transaction costs the transaction cost politics framework political outcomes and economic efficiency transaction cost analysis in politics mechanisms to cope with transaction costs in politics national differences two case studies to illustrate transaction cost politics tax and expenditure reform in the united states the gatt and national trade politics some reflections and suggestions some lessons for the policy process the role of the economist concluding comments appendix multiprincipal multitask agencies

competitive markets without commitment in the presence of a time inconsistency problem with agency contracts we show that competitive markets can implement allocations that pareto dominate those achieved by a benevolent government and they induce more effort we analyze a model with moral hazard and a two sided lack of commitment after agents have chosen their work firms can modify contracts and agents can switch firms if the ex post market outcome satisfies a weak notion of competitiveness and sufficiently separates individuals it is pareto superior to a government s allocation with a complete breakdown of incentives moreover competitive markets without commitment implement more effort in equilibrium under general conditions

elections and political risk new evidence from the 2008 taiwanese presidential election abstract we examine the effects of party platforms on the economic opportunities of firms using a unique data set from a political prediction market in taiwan a country with two dominant parties whose political cleavage derives mainly from a single issue the one china principle we find that during the 2008 presidential campaign the share price of taiwanese firms with investments in the mainland responded strongly and positively to a positive electoral outlook for the kmt the party which advocates lifting caps on cross strait investment in mainland china the response is strongest for those firms who have already hit their caps

incentives for subjects in internet experiments abstract providing incentives to subjects in internet experiments can be tricky one simple method is a high score as in computer games we test whether high scores provide adequate incentives in comparison to the usual performance based incentives we find significant differences

prediction markets in the laboratory prediction markets are becoming an ever more popular method for aggregating disparate information companies use prediction markets to forecast sales release dates and other internal activities recently several well known economists have argued that government ought to eliminate impediments to unleashing the power of prediction markets broadly this survey paper looks at the laboratory experiments which provide part of the scientific justification for using prediction markets these systems work because people who have private knowledge can use this insider information in the market but doing so causes the price to reflect these data starting with early experiments that show markets can under certain circumstances aggregate information we discuss the robustness of prediction markets to various design features we also discuss places where performance does not match rhetoric and briefly look at experimental comparisons of alternative information aggregating institutions another issue consistently raised regarding the implementation of prediction markets is the degree to which traders can manipulate prices and thus the information gleaned by following a series of experiments on manipulation we present the circumstances that are and are not sufficient for manipulation attempts to be successful finally we offer suggestions on where we believe future experiments are needed in this area

self selection and the power of incentive schemes an experimental study we examine how self selection of workers depends on the power of incentive schemes and how it affects team performance if the power of the incentive schemes is increased in a laboratory experiment we let subjects choose between low powered team incentives and high powered individual incentives we observe that subjects exhibiting high trust or reciprocity in the trust game are more likely to choose team incentives when exposed to individual incentives subjects who chose team incentives perform worse if both the unobservable interdependency between their efforts and their incentive to cooperate under team incentives are high

personnel economics past lessons and future directions presidential address to the society of labor economists san francisco may 1 1998 in 1987 the journal of labor economics published an issue on the economics of personnel since then personnel economics defined as the application of labor economics principles to business issues has become a major part of labor economics now accounting for a substantial proportion of papers in this and other journals much of the work in personnel economics has been theoretical in large part because the data needed to test these theories have not been available in recent years a number of firm based data sets have surfaced that allow personnel economics to be tested using two such data sets i give support to the implications of theories that relate to life cycle incentives tournaments piecework incentives pay compression and peer pressure i conclude that personnel economics is real it is far more than a set of clever theories it has relevance to the real world additionally firm based data make asking and answering new kinds of questions feasible the value of research in this area is h

government subsidies and presidential election outcomes evidence for a developing country summary we explore the effects of government subsidies on presidential elections in chile in 1989 99 we use a panel with three periods the elections of 1989 1993 and 1999 and 229 counties we correct for the potential simultaneity problem deriving from the fact that an incumbent facing a difficult political scenario might react by increasing subsidies to improve his her electoral performance our results indicate that the greater the coverage of these types of programs i e the percentage of people receiving subsidies the higher the votes for the incumbent

markets as information gathering tools the academic literature wall street commentary and even daily news reporting reflect a belief that markets can anticipate events the current movements in the stock market are interpreted as reflecting the likelihood that the federal reserve system will change interest rates futures markets are interpreted as reflecting the best estimates of things to come movements in individual stock prices are thought to anticipate earnings reports or the probability of a merger or buyout if we want to know about future weather in the south we should study the orange juice futures the academic journals are filled with the concept of rational expectations in which current prices are supposed to reflect the sum of all knowledge in the system prices according to this theory are a statistic that indicates the aggregation of information about underlying states of the economy those who are outsiders to the information in the system become insiders by simply observing the economic activity

information and efficiency in political stock markets using computerized markets to predict election results this study concentrates on four computerized political markets in germany between 1990 and 1998 while this new method for the prediction of election events worked quite well in the usa it did not perform as well in germany searching for the causes of this distinction it is shown that in contrast to the findings of forsythe et al 1992 i extraordinary profits were achieved less by people who took advantage of other people s anomalies than by those people who acquired an advantage from the existence of asymmetric information ii the marginal trader hypothesis does not hold when applied to german markets and that iii traders relied on public opinion polls it is argued that these distinctions are caused by the differences in the german and the us voting systems additionally it is shown that to a certain extent iv election markets were able to predict the contemporary mood of the electorate without the help of public opinion polls v first of all the informed traders used public opinion pol

performance based wages in tax collection the brazilian tax collection reform and its effects we use panel data from the brazilian tax collection authority to examine the effects of a major incentive reform instituted in 1989 to improve tax enforcement beforehand fine collections per inspection were relatively stable however a striking trend break occurred afterwards which we attribute to the incentive reform not to changes in the macroeconomy or personal and corporate income tax rates our estimates suggest the growth in fines per inspection after the reform is about 75 above what it would have been without it and that there is substantial heterogeneity in the impact of the reform across tax regions