monetary fiscal policy interactions and indeterminacy in postwar us data using a micro founded model and a likelihood based inference method we address three questions in this article first what monetary and fiscal policy regimes characterized postwar us data second was equilibrium indeterminacy a feature of the economy before paul volcker s chairmanship at the federal reserve third what were the effects of shifts in monetary and fiscal policy on the aggregate economy we find that pre volcker a passive monetary and fiscal policy regime prevailed while postvolcker an active monetary and passive fiscal policy regime characterized the economy 1 since both monetary and fiscal policies were passive pre volcker there was equilibrium indeterminacy moreover the effects of monetary and fiscal policy shifts on the aggregate economy were substantially different in the two time periods for example while pre volcker an unanticipated increase in interest rates led to an increase in output and inflation post volcker it led to a decrease in output and inflation moreover while pre volcker an unanticipated increase in the lump sum tax revenues to output ratio led to a decline in output and inflation post volcker it had no effects on output or inflation the response of the economy pre volcker was thus similar to that predicted by the fiscal

investment and interest rate policy abstract the paper s theorems reverse two standard results of new keynesian economics simply by appending endogenous investment to a benchmark imperfect competition sticky price model our results are a a passive interest rate rule where the monetary authority responds to inflation by lowering the real interest rate implies local equilibrium uniqueness whereas an active rule does not generate a locally unique equilibrium b a temporary exogenous increase in the nominal interest rate causes a temporary increase in output and investment extensions of the benchmark model including generalized preferences and alternative interest rate rules are also examined journal of economic literature classification numbers e12 e31 e52

should government fund assisted reproductive techniques a study using willingness to pay during recent years there has been a growth in the use of assisted reproductive techniques arts across europe america and australia this has resulted in debates about whether health insurance should cover this procedure this study used the closed ended ce willingness to pay wtp technique to establish the value the infertile place on in vitro fertilization ivf treatment in scotland the intention is to consider the use of the economic instrument of wtp for informing the debate on the public provision of ivf assuming that the value of the service outweighs the cost public provision should be encouraged the responses suggested that users of the service have a mean wtp of over 5000 for an attempt at ivf this compares with an average government expenditure of 7pound 2700 the internal validity of the ce wtp was also shown with income being positively related to wtp it is concluded that the ce wtp technique is potentially a useful tool for policy makers in considering the public provision of i

price wars in price setting supergames this paper presents a method of generating price wars in price setting supergames the market is one where symmetric oligopolists produce a differentiated product and use price as a strategic variable prices are posted and can be observed by all there is thus little uncertainty or scope for secret price cutting nevertheless price wars occur they are precipitated by periodic but infrequent demand shocks firms use the wars to learn about changed conditions in the market so that they can calculate the new stationary nash equilibrium learning is modeled in a bayesian fashion via the kalman filter copyright 1989 by the london school of economics and political science

learning and time varying macroeconomic volatility abstract this paper presents a dsge model in which agents learning about the economy can endogenously generate time varying macroeconomic volatility economic agents use simple models to form expectations and need to learn the relevant parameters their gain coefficient is endogenous and is adjusted according to past forecast errors the model is estimated using likelihood based bayesian methods the endogenous gain is jointly estimated with the structural parameters of the system the estimation results show that private agents appear to have often switched to constant gain learning with a high constant gain during most of the 1970s and until the early 1980s while reverting to a decreasing gain later on as a result the model can generate a pattern of volatility which is increasing in the 1970s and falling in the second half of the sample with a decline that can roughly match the magnitude of the so called great moderation in the 1984 2007 period the paper also documents how a failure to incorporate learning into the estimation may lead econometricians to spuriously find time varying volatility in the exogenous shocks even when these have constant variance by construction

comparative reliability of the dichotomous choice and open ended contingent valuation techniques abstract the comparative reliability of dichotomous choice and open ended contingent valuation methods cvm is evaluated by resurvey of the same households 9 months after their original survey test retest correlations on willingness to pay are statistically significant at the 1 level and range from 0 57 for the dichotomous choice cvm to 0 62 for the open ended cvm the test retest correlations were not statistically different between dichotomous choice and open ended cvm a likelihood ratio test for temporal stability of each method s willingness to pay functions indicates stability half of the time for both methods

eliciting preferences for collectively financed health programmes the willingness to assign approach improving public involvement in health system decision making stands as a primary health policy goal however still limited guidance is available on how best to elicit preferences for health care programmes this study examines a contingent choice technique to elicit preferences among health programmes and named willingness to assign wtas wtas reveals relative monetary based values of a set of competing public programmes under a hypothetical healthcare budget assessment experimental evidence is reported from a deliberative empirical study valuing ten health programmes in the context of the catalan health service evidence from this experimental study reveals that within the context of multiple programmes preferences are internally more consistent and slightly less affected by preference reversals as compared to values revealed from an adapted technique eliciting the willingness to pay wtp extra taxes another finding suggests that although programmes promoting health received the higher rel

strategic pricing models and interpretation of price war data abstract price wars cartel breakdowns and other seemingly disequilibrium pricing phenomena are examined questions of interest include when do breakdowns occur how long do they last what determines their severity and are they characterized by increased cross sectional price dispersion and or temporal price volatility the first half of the paper explains how the choice of punishment strategy the specification of the stochastic shocks to the system and the assumptions regarding observability determine the pricing dynamics implicit in several theoretical price war models theories are classified into imperfect monitoring models in which players actions cannot be observed learning models in which structural parameters are unknown to the players and cyclical models in which observability is perfect but business cycles affect the difficulty of colluding the second half in contrast examines data on prices actually set by firms in industries which are subject to periodic wars when the models are confronted with the data we can see how well oligopoly theory explains the behavior of the firms in these industries the object of the exercise is not to pick a winner instead the role of industry characteristics in determining pricing dynamics is assessed and the reasons why simple models may fail to explain complex pricing patterns are examined finally directions for future research are suggested by the empirical regularities which are uncovered

retail price cycles and the presence of small firms abstract in many canadian cities retail gasoline prices remain unchanged for weeks at a time while in other cities retail prices cycle increasing sharply and declining slowly in maskin and tirole econometrica 56 1988 571 both price cycles and rigid prices can exist in equilibrium in this article i demonstrate that the existence of these equilibria is dependent on the number of retail outlets operated by the firms constant price equilibria are found to exist only when firms are of similar size however cycle equilibria can be constructed for a wide range of relative sizes

equilibrium indeterminacy and asset price fluctuation in japan a bayesian investigation this paper investigates sources of asset price fluctuation in japan using an estimated financial accelerator model for explicit treatment of expectational beliefs characterized by sunspots the model is analyzed over the parameter space where the equilibrium can be indeterminate we show that indeterminacy arises if the financial accelerator effect is sufficiently large according to our bayesian estimation results japan s economy was affected by sunspot shocks however the contribution of the sunspots to asset price volatility was low rather net worth and cost shocks drove the asset price fluctuation we find however that the sunspots substantially affected capital investment

do central banks respond to exchange rate movements a structural investigation abstract we estimate a small scale structural general equilibrium model of a small open economy using bayesian methods our main focus is the conduct of monetary policy in australia canada new zealand and the uk we consider generic taylor type rules where the monetary authority reacts in response to output inflation and exchange rate movements we perform posterior odds tests to investigate the hypothesis whether central banks do target exchange rates the main result of this paper is that the central banks of australia and new zealand do not whereas the bank of canada and the bank of england do include the nominal exchange rate in its policy rule this result is robust for various specification of the policy rule we also find that terms of trade movements do not contribute significantly to domestic business cycles

testing for indeterminacy an application to u s monetary policy reply this paper considers a prototypical new keynesian model in which the equilibrium is undetermined if monetary policy is passive the likelihood based estimation of dynamic equilibrium models is extended to allow for indeterminacies and sunspot fluctuations we construct posterior weights for the determinacy and indeterminacy region of the parameter space and estimates for the propagation of fundamental and sunspot shocks according to the estimated model u s monetary policy post 1982 is consistent with determinacy whereas the pre volcker policy is not we find that before 1979 indeterminacy substantially altered the propagation of shocks

specification of the logit model the case of valuation of nonmarket goods abstract we address the proper specification of the logit model for estimation of nonmarket commodity demand economic theory is used to show the conditions which must be met by the logit functional form if it is to yield valid estimates of welfare change measures and demand relationships an empirical example is used to illustrate the argument recreational boating data were collected using the contingent valuation method cvm in texas in one instance the demand curve is positively sloped due to the specific functional form chosen the estimated demand curve for the theoretically preferred functional form has the expected negative slope

monetary and fiscal policy interactions in the post war u s abstract a new keynesian model allowing for an active monetary and passive fiscal policy ampf regime and a passive monetary and active fiscal policy pmaf regime is estimated to fit various u s samples from 1955 to 2007 the results show that data in the pre volcker periods strongly prefer an ampf regime even with a prior centered in the pmaf region the estimation however is not very informative about whether the federal reserve s reaction to inflation is greater than one in the pre volcker period because much lower values can still preserve determinacy under passive fiscal policy in addition whether a pmaf regime can generate consumption growth following a government spending increase depends on the degree of price stickiness an income tax cut can yield an unusual negative labor response if monetary policy aggressively stabilizes output growth

cyclic pricing by a durable goods monopolist in the model of this paper a monopoly seller of a durable good holds periodic sales as a means of price discrimination a new cohort of consumers enters the market in each period interested in purchasing the good either immediately or after a delay within each cohort consumers vary in their tastes for the good under broad conditions the seller will vary the price over time in most periods he will charge a price just low enough to sell immediately to consumers with a high willingness to pay periodically however he will drop the price far enough to sell to an accumulated group of consumers with a low willingness to pay

disappointment in decision making under uncertainty decision analysis requires that two equally desirable consequences should have the same utility and vice versa most analyses of financial decision making presume that two consequences with the same dollar outcome will be equally preferred however winning the top prize of 10 000 in a lottery may leave one much happier than receiving 10 000 as the lowest prize in a lottery this paper explores the implications of disappointment a psychological reaction caused by comparing the actual outcome of a lottery to one s prior expectations for decision making under uncertainty explicit recognition that decision makers may be paying a premium to avoid potential disappointment provides an interpretation for some known behavioral paradoxes and suggests that decision makers may be sensitive to the manner in which a lottery is resolved the concept of disappointment is integrated into utility theory in a prescriptive model

optimal bid selection for dichotomous choice contingent valuation surveys abstract this paper develops a model for optimal survey design for the dichotomous choice contingent valuation method that finds the bid amounts as well as the sample sizes corresponding to each bid the model uses an iterative procedure to select the survey design that minimizes the mean square error of the welfare measure a set of monte carlo simulations shows that the model produces significantly lower mean squared errors for the welfare estimate than the next best model produces survey design under alternative assumptions regarding the statistical distribution of the welfare measure is also addressed the model produced significantly different survey designs depending on whether the distribution was assumed to be symmetric or asymmetric

application of stochastic choice modeling to policy analysis of public goods a case study of air quality improvements this paper demonstrates the applicability of the stochastic choice method in performing policy analysis of changes in public goods using survey data the air quality problem studied involves air pollution control for the tampa bay area of florida and relatively simple choices between changes in a public good and disposable income it illustrates the use of surveys as a public forum in which preferences are revealed 26 references 2 tables

price indexation habit formation and the generalized taylor principle abstract we prove that the generalized taylor principle under which the nominal interest rate reacts more than one for one to a change in inflation in the long run is a necessary and under some extra mild restrictions on parameters sufficient condition for determinacy in a sticky price model with interest rate smoothing in monetary policy partial dynamic price indexation and habit formation in consumption

validation of empirical measures of welfare change a comparison of nonmarket techniques since the passing of the flood control act of 1936 the attention of many resource economists has been directed towards measuring the benefits and costs of alternative uses of natural resources increasingly it has been recognized that the value of some of these uses is not explicitly determined through market transactions this has led to the focus of much attention upon the development of nonmarket methods to estimate the value of these uses in the 1940s the groundwork for the travel cost method was established by hotelling prewitt 1949 following this in the 1960s davis initiated the basic foundation for bidding methods davis 1963 which were later to be subsumed under the heading of contingent valuation methods brookshire randall and stoll 1980 schulze d arge and brookshire 1981 thayer 1981 both of these methods will be further discussed below in addition to these two methods a third approach the unit day value method has been recognized as acceptable but not preferred for the valuation of recreational uses of water and related land resources dwyer kelley and bowes 1977 u s water resources council 1979 given the existence of alternative methods of estimating the value of resource uses several obvious questions arise one of the first of these is under what circumstances is each method most appropriate existing literature has focussed sufficiently on this question and pointed out limitations of each especially the travel cost method and unit day value methods brookshire ives and schulze 1976 dwyer kelly and bowes 1977 freeman 1979 mcconnell 1975 randall ives and eastman 1977 schulze d arge and brook

consumers preferences for the attributes of post pc results of a contingent ranking study with the explosive growth of the internet and the change in consumer demand post pc is emerging as a substitute for the existing desktop pc and laptop pc post pc is a new computer which is portable with wireless networking cheaper than the existing pc and specializing in the specific functions that consumers want rudimentary post pcs such as pda web pad and smart phone are already in use in the future owing to technological progress the heterogeneity of related companies and the low entry barrier various post pcs will be developed this paper attempts to analyse consumers willingness to pay wtp for post pc with such attributes as portability cpu speed data input method using key board or electric pen monitor size and price to this end a contingent ranking method is applied which makes the respondents rank hypothetical post pc alternatives featuring various combinations of attributes via a survey data collected in korea using the estimated wtp the shape and the capacity of future po

real business cycles and sunspot fluctuations are observationally equivalent abstract this paper points out that real business cycle models are observationally equivalent to externality models which we define as models with externalities and sunspots but without productivity shocks as far as standard first order systems are concerned however externality models turn out to be more flexible than rbc models this explains at least partly why previous studies have found that externality models perform better than standard rbc models at generating realistic business cycle behavior our results cast doubt on the arguments of farmer and guo 1994 and caballero and lyons 1992

endogenous business cycles and the dynamics of output hours and consumption abstract this paper studies the business cycle fluctuations predicted by a two sector endogenous business cycle model with sector specific external increasing returns to scale it focuses on aspects of actual fluctuations that have been identified both as defining features of business cycles and as ones standard real business cycle models cannot explain for empirically realistic calibrations of the degree of returns to scale the results suggest that endogenous fluctuations do not provide the dynamic element that is missing in existing real business cycle models jel e32

learning about monetary policy rules abstract we study macroeconomic systems with forward looking private sector agents and a monetary authority that is trying to control the economy through the use of a linear policy feedback rule we use stability under recursive learning a la evans and honkapohja learning and expectations in macroeconomics princeton university press princeton new jersey 2001 as a criterion for evaluating monetary policy rules in this context we find that considering learning can alter the evaluation of alternative policy rules

on non uniqueness in rational expectations models an attempt at perspective abstract many macroeconomic models involving rational expectations give rise to an infinity of solution paths even when the models are linear in all variables some writers have suggested that this non uniqueness constitutes a serious weakness for the rational expectations hypothesis one purpose of the present paper is to argue that the non uniqueness in question is not properly attributable to the rationality hypothesis but instead is a general feature of dynamic models involving expectations it is also argued that there typically exists in a very wide class of linear rational expectations models a single solution that excludes bubble or bootstrap effects one that occur only because they are arbitrarily expected to occur a systematic procedure for obtaining solutions free from such effects is introduced and discussed in addition this procedure is used to interpret and reconsider several prominent examples with solution multiplicities including ones developed by fischer black and john b taylor

monetary fiscal policy interactions and fiscal stimulus abstract increases in government spending trigger substitution effects both inter and intra temporal and a wealth effect the ultimate impacts on the economy hinge on current and expected monetary and fiscal policy behavior studies that impose active monetary policy and passive fiscal policy typically find that government consumption crowds out private consumption higher future taxes create a strong negative wealth effect while the active monetary response increases the real interest rate this paper estimates markov switching policy rules for the united states and finds that monetary and fiscal policies fluctuate between active and passive behavior when the estimated joint policy process is imposed on a conventional new keynesian model government spending generates positive consumption multipliers in some policy regimes and in simulated data in which all policy regimes are realized the paper reports the model s predictions of the macroeconomic impacts of the american recovery and reinvestment act s implied path for government spending under alternative monetary fiscal policy combinations

controlling inflation with timid monetary fiscal regime changes can monetary policy control inflation when both monetary and fiscal policies change over time when monetary policy is active a long run fiscal principle entails flexibility in fiscal policy that preserves determinacy even when deviating from passive fiscal substantially for brief periods or timidly for prolonged periods in order to guarantee a unique equilibrium monetary and fiscal policies must coordinate not only within but also across regimes and not simply on being active or passive but also on their extent the amplitude of deviations from the active monetary passive fiscal benchmark determines whether a regime is ricardian timid deviations do not imply wealth effects

a theory of dynamic oligopoly iii cournot competition abstract we study the markov perfect equilibrium mpe of an alternating move infinite horizon duopoly model where the strategic variable is quantity we exhibit a pair of difference differential equations that when they exist differentiable mpe strategies satisfy for quadratic payoff functions we solve these equations in closed form and demonstrate that the mpe corresponding to the solution is the limit of the finite horizon equilibrium as the horizon tends to infinity we conclude with a discussion of adjustment costs and endogenization of the timing

a theory of dynamic oligopoly ii price competition kinked demand curves and edgeworth cycles we provide game theoretic foundations for the classic kinked demand curve equilibrium and edgeworth cycle we analyze a model in which firms take turns choosing prices the model is intended to capture the idea of reactions based on short run commitment in a markov perfect equilibrium mpe a firm s move in any period depends only on the other firm s current price there are multiple mpe s consisting of both kinked demand curve equilibria and edgeworth cycles in any mpe profit is bounded away from the bertrand equilibrium level we show that a kinked demand curve at the monopoly price is the unique symmetric renegotiation proof equilibrium when there is little discounting we then endogenize the timing by allowing firms to move at any time subject to short run commitments we find that firms end up alternating thus vindicating the ad hoc timing assumption of our simpler model we also discuss how the model can be enriched to provide explanations for excess capacity and market sharing keiiwords tacit collusion markov perfect equilibrium kinked demand curve edgeworth cycle excess capacity market sharing endogenous timing

use of dichotomous choice nonmarket methods to value the whooping crane resource market prices for endangered wildlife species rarely exist when prices do exist they arc not likely to reflect accurately individual preferences both consumptive uses such as hunting fishing and trapping boyle and bishop 1985 stou and johnson brookshire eubanks and randall and more esoteric benefits such as viewing and existence values must be considered this article is addressed to the valuation of whooping cranes grus americana a prominent endangered species the purpose of this article is to present a methodology for estimating nonconsumptive benefits associated with the existence of an endangered species a dichotomous choice form of contingent valuation is applied to quantify individuals economic surplus associated with preservation of the whooping crane resource specific issues and limitations of the empirical approach are discussed some of which have been previously examined by bishop and heberlein 1979 and hanemann the present paper expands upon earlier work in several ways fit in addition to discussing the above issues a unique application of the approach to an endangered species is presented second three model specifications are examined two of which arc consistent with utility theory and one which is not hanemann ti again following hanemann economic surplus is estimated at the sample median as well as the mean the dii cussion of the last two issues sheds sit on their implications for estimation of economic surplus throughout the article the suitability of alternative estimation techniques for dichom mous choice or referendum style data is examined the methodological and empirical results are relevant to a number of cumnt issues regarding model specification choice of binary response model and choice of estimator for equivalent surplus hanemann boyle and bishop 1984 sellar chavas and stoll

gas wars retail gasoline price fluctuations this paper examines the retail gasoline price fluctuations known as gas wars weekly prices for the los angeles area were examined for the period from january 2 1968 through december 23 1975 the observed fluctuations were remarkably regular and apparently large ly predictable the data appear consistent with the recent game theory model of e maskin and j tirole in which competing firms produce edgeworth cycles by undercutting each other and eventually relenting copyright 1993 by mit press

collusive pricing with capacity constraints in the presence of demand uncertainty we explore the response of collusive prices to changing demand conditions when firms operate under capacity constraints in the presence of demand uncertainty we find support for the conventional view that periods of low demand lead through the emergence of excess capacity to a breakdown of collusive pricing we also find that the nature of price wars depends on the degree of excess capacity in the industry while small amounts of excess capacity can lead firms to engage in mild price wars characterized by uniform price reductions and market share stability more severe price wars characterized by price undercutting and market share instability can emerge if excess capacity is sufficiently great finally our results lend support to the view that market share instability is a symptom of ineffective collusion

consumption sentiment and economic news this paper investigates the influence of economic news on consumer sentiment and examines whether news shocks changes in coverage that would not be expected from incoming data on economic fundamentals have aggregate effects using monthly u s data and a structural vector autoregression i find that 1 sentiment is affected by news shocks 2 after filtering out effects of news shocks shocks to sentiment still have positive effects on consumer spending and 3 news shocks influence both spending and unemployment in significant though transitory ways these results are consistent with other evidence of a role of nonfundamental factors in aggregate fluctuations jel e21 e32 d12

disappointment and dynamic consistency in choice under uncertainty the central proposition of disappointment theory is that an individual forms expectations about uncertain prospects and that if the actual consequence turns out to be worse than or better than that expectation the individual experiences a sensation of disappointment or elation generating a decrement or increment of utility which modifies the basic utility derived from the consequence by incorporating a simple disappointment elation function into a model of individual choice many observed violations of conventional expected utility axioms including violations of savage s sure thing principle and the isolation effect can be predicted and defended as rational and dynamically consistent behaviour

when are cartels stable contracts why do some industry cartels survive for decades while others are quickly undermined by price wars and entry variation in cartels longevity can be explained by differences in their costs of self enforcement and service value to members analyzing legal cartel contracts formed under the webb pomerene export trade act i find that longer lived cartels tended to export to small buyers to have wide industry coverage to operate in periods of stable prices and growing demand and to sell under side agreements with foreign competitors contracts in which the cartel centralized its control through a common sales agency tended to be more stable however cartels usually grew less stable with age and when there was a recent and long history of cartelization in the industry finally cartels whose primary rationale was to fix price tended to be particularly unstable because these contracts invited fringe competition and entry

an alternating move price setting duopoly model with stochastic costs abstract this paper examines an alternating move price setting duopoly model in which marginal costs are stochastic without persistence it is shown that provided marginal costs do not fluctuate excessively equilibria in which firms match the current monopoly price do not exist by contrast equilibria in which firms always match their rival along the equilibrium path do exist in these equilibria deviations off of the equilibrium path result in extended price wars in which firms repeatedly undercut each other finally examples in which such price wars are observed in equilibrium are constructed

welfare measurements using contingent valuation a comparison of techniques three commonly used techniques of asking contingent valuation questions are compared iterative bidding payment cards and dichotomous choice the results reveal that no single contingent valuation technique is neutral in the elicitation of hicksian surplus and each technique has its strengths and weaknesses the iterative bidding estimates contain a starting point bias while the payment card and dichotomous choice estimates were influenced by the interviewers soliciting the contingent values finally the analysis of dichotomous choice responses involves unresolved issues that warrant further investigation on the other hand dichotomous choice is the easiest technique to administer in a survey setting

valuing health care using willingness to pay a comparison of the payment card and dichotomous choice methods this paper compares willingness to pay wtp estimates generated from the dichotomous choice dc and payment card pc approaches in a split sample wtp experiment concerned with allocating scarce health care resources across three health care interventions the dc approach is shown consistently to generate larger welfare estimates than the pc observed difference between pc and dc experiments cannot be explained by the inclusion of non demanders or methods of statistical analysis but may be partly explained by yea saying no evidence of range bias or mid point bias was found with pc responses data were also collected on respondents ordinal rankings of the three interventions and person trade offs ptos neither of these approaches converged with wtp future work must address the decision heuristics individuals employ when responding to valuation experiments

indeterminacy home production and the business cycle a calibrated analysis abstract in this paper i present a business cycle model with one market sector that produces a standard good and another that produces a non market or home good the model can have multiple equilibria and therefore cycles driven only by self fulfilling expectations with low externalities to market production in particular an upward sloping aggregate labor demand as e g in farmer and guo j economic theory 63 1994 42 72 is not required for indeterminacy the effect of technology shocks is also studied in all cases the time series that are generated have properties that are comparable to the real us postwar series

solving and estimating indeterminate dsge models we propose a method for solving and estimating linear rational expectations models that exhibit indeterminacy and we provide step by step guidelines for implementing this method in the matlab based packages dynare and gensys our method redefines a subset of expectational errors as new fundamentals this redefinition allows us to treat indeterminate models as determinate and to apply standard solution algorithms we prove that our method is equivalent to the solution method proposed by lubik and schorfheide 2003 2004 and using the new keynesian model described in lubik and schorfheide 2004 we demonstrate how to apply our theoretical results with a practical exercise

intertemporal price competition alternating price competition between firms selling differentiated products to nonhomogeneous consumers can yield two different types of equilibria one which we call disciplined arises when products are close substitutes another which we call spontaneous emerges when products are more differentiated in disciplined equilibria an implicit threat to cut price further in response to an initial price cut supports quite collusive outcomes which become less collusive as product differentiation increases in spontaneous equilibria no such threat is needed consumers in the smaller market tend to pay a higher price as do consumers served by the more efficient firm copyright 1990 by the econometric society

vancouver s gasoline price wars an empirical exercise in uncovering supergame strategies this paper uses a unique data set to determine which dynamic model of tacit collusion best describes behaviour in a particular industry the area investigated is a region of the vancouver british columbia retail gasoline market players are service station managers who compete daily firms choose price in each period using strategies that depend on prices chosen in the previous period periodically unanticipated demand shocks precipitate price wars when shocks occur the firms in the market must determine the new demand conditions and adjust their strategies from an econometric point of view slopes of intertemporal reaction functions are latent variables the resulting system of equations with time varying parameters is estimated via the kalman filter different repeated game oligopoly models correspond to different transition matrices for the latent variables the models can thus be assessed in terms of their power to explain firm behaviour in this market

policy regimes policy shifts and u s business cycles abstract using an estimated dsge model with monetary and fiscal policy interactions and allowing for equilibrium indeterminacy we find that a passive monetary and passive fiscal policy regime prevailed in the pre volcker period this gave rise to self fulfilling beliefs and unconventional transmission mechanisms of policy shifts unanticipated increases in interest rates increased inflation and output while unanticipated increases in lump sum taxes decreased inflation and output we show that had the monetary policy regime of the post volcker era been in place pre volcker inflation volatility would have been lower by 25 and the rise of inflation in the 1970s would not have occurred

inference and optimal design for a welfare measure in dichotomous choice contingent valuation this paper considers the use of contingent valuation to estimate non market benefits from separately valued nested goods survey respondents were asked referendum wtp questions regarding either a scheme to protect the whole area of a wetland or a

long term debt and optimal policy in the fiscal theory of the price level the fiscal theory says that the price level is determined by the ratio of nominal debt to the present value of real primary surpluses i analyze long term debt and optimal policy in the fiscal theory i find that the maturity structure of the debt matters for example it determines whether news of future deficits implies current inflation or future inflation when long term debt is present the government can trade current inflation for future inflation by debt operations this tradeoff is not present if the government rolls over short term debt the maturity structure of outstanding debt acts as a budget constraint determining which periods price levels the government can affect by debt variation alone in addition debt policythe expected pattern of future state contingent debt sales repurchases and redemptionsmatters crucially for the effects of a debt operation i solve for optimal debt policies to minimize the variance of inflation i find cases in which long term debt helps to stabilize inflation i also find that the optimal policy produces time series that are similar to u s surplus and debt time series to understand the data i must assume that debt policy offsets the inflationary impact of cyclical surplus shocks rather than causing price level disturbances by policy induced shocks shifting the objective from price level variance to inflation variance the optimal policy produces much less volatile inflation at the cost of a unit root in the price level this is consistent with the stabilization of u s inflation after the gold standard was abandoned

were there regime switches in u s monetary policy working paper 2004 14 june 2004 abstract a multivariate model identifying monetary policy and allowing for simultaneity and regime switching in coefficients and variances is confronted with u s data since 1959 the best fit is with a model that allows time variation in structural disturbance variances only among models that also allow for changes in equation coefficients the best fit is for a model that allows coefficients to change only in the monetary policy rule that model allows switching among three main regimes and one rarely and briefly occurring regime the three main regimes correspond roughly to periods when most observers believe that monetary policy actually differed and the differences in policy behavior are substantively interesting though statistically ill determined the estimates imply monetary targeting was central in the early 80s but was also important sporadically in the 70s the changes in regime were essential neither to the rise in inflation in the 70s nor to its decline in the 80s jel classification e52 e47 c53 key words counterfactuals lucas critique policy rule monetary targeting simultaneity volatility model comparison i the debate over monetary policy change in an influential paper clarida gali and gertler 2000 cgg presented evidence that us monetary policy changed between the 1970 s and the 1980 s indeed that in the 70 s it was drastically worse they found that the policy rule apparently followed in the 70 s was one that when embedded in most stochastic general equilibrium models would imply non uniqueness of the equilibrium and hence vulnerability of the economy to sunspot fluctuations of arbitrarily large size their estimated policy rule for the later period on the other hand eliminated this indeterminacy these results are a possible explanation of the volatile and rising inflation of the 70 s and of its subsequent decline the cgg analysis has two important weaknesses one is that it fails to account for stochastic volatility us macroeconomic variables and particularly the federal funds rate have gone through periods of tranquility and of agitation with forecast error variances varying greatly from period to period ignoring such variation does not lead to inconsistent estimates of model parameters when the forecasting equations themselves are constant but it strongly biases toward a finding of changed parameters tests of the stability of the forecasting equations the other weakness is that the cgg analysis rests on powerful and implausible identifying assumptions they require that we accept that the response of the monetary authority to expected future inflation and output does not depend on the recent history of inflation money growth or output it is hard to understand why this should be so especially in the 70 s when monetarism was a prominent theme in policy debates congress was requiring reports from the fed of projected time paths of monetary aggregates and financial markets were reacting sensitively to weekly money supply numbers the requirement for existence and uniqueness of equilibrium in dynamic models is that the monetary policy rule show a more than unit response of interest rates to the sum of the logs of all nominal variables that appear on the right hand side of the reaction function if we force a particular measure of expected future inflation to proxy for all the nominal variables that actually appear independently in the reaction function we are bound to get distorted conclusions on the one hand because expected future inflation will be a noisy measure of the full set of nominal influences on policy we might get downward bias in our estimates from the usual errorsin variables effect on the other hand to the extent that expected future inflation like most expected future values shows less variation than current nominal variables we could find a mistaken scaling up of coefficients

inflation dynamics the role of public debt and policy regimes abstract in a passive monetary and active fiscal policy regime changes in the value of public debt generate wealth effects on households then in contrast to the active monetary and passive fiscal policy regime inflation moves oppositely from the inflation target and a stronger reaction of interest rates to inflation increases the response of inflation to shocks moreover a higher level of public debt increases the response of inflation while a weaker reaction of taxes to debt decreases the response of inflation to shocks in a passive monetary and passive fiscal policy regime both monetary and fiscal policy parameters affect inflation

sequential moves and tacit collusion reaction function cycles in a finite pricing duopoly abstract this paper analyzes a finite horizon sequential move pricing duopoly restricting attention to markov strategies the solution yields stationary patterns independent of initial conditions where the reaction functions follow cycles of three periods the market price never settles down and is at all times strictly above marginal cost long run average industry profits are approximately 5 6 of the monopoly level these results demonstrate that neither a long horizon nor non markovian strategies are required for persistent profits in dynamic price competition games journal of economic literature classification numbers c73 d43 l13