effects of profitability and liquidity on r d intensity japanese and u s companies compared this study investigates the proposition that japanese companies have a greater propensity than u s companies to sustain commitment to r d in the face of fluctuating profits and liquidity the anal

the impact of usury ceilings on consumer credit usury regulation is a topic with a long history of discussion nevertheless the debate over the merits of usury regulation continues to the present day in the early part of the 1980s the rapid rise in nominal interest rates swung the debate in favor of the opponents of usury ceilings during this period a quarter of the states enacted legislation which largely eliminated their usury ceilings on consumer credit however with the return of lower interest rates in the middle part of the decade the argument for low usury ceilings gained increasing support and as a result several states lowered their usury ceilings on some types of credit the first formal economic model of the impact of usury ceilings was outlined by blitz and long 8 their insightful analysis has led researchers to focus on two hypotheses concerning the impact of usury ceilings on consumer credit hypothesis 1 usury ceilings reduce the quantity of credit obtained by high risk borrowers

predicting early data revisions to u s gdp and the effects of releases on equity markets the effects of data uncertainty on real time decision making can be reduced by predicting data revisions to u s gdp growth we show that survey forecasts efficiently predict the revision implicit in the second estimate of gdp growth but that forecasting models incorporating monthly economic indicators and daily equity returns provide superior forecasts of the data revision implied by the release of the third estimate we use forecasting models to measure the impact of surprises in gdp announcements on equity markets and to analyze the effects of anticipated future revisions on announcement day returns we show that the publication of better than expected third release gdp figures provides a boost to equity markets and if future upward revisions are expected the effects are enhanced during recessions

the climate for innovation in industry the role of management attitudes and practices in consumer electronics abstract this article explores policy factors that may have systematically influenced the innovative vitality of the u s consumer electronics industry during the post world war ii period a series of successful innovations in electronic equipment that have become the foundation of international rivalry in this industry are examined with a focus on the several factors that might explain the relatively sluggish performance of u s firms in comparison with counterparts from japan and elsewhere the article suggests that the institutional climate for innovation pertaining to considerations that are internal to the firm like management attitudes practices and conventions are predominantly important in explaining the innovative behavior of the industry these tend to dominate the more frequently cited external or macroeconomic factors like inflation industry structure government regulation the propensities to save and invest etc a great potential for improving economic progress lies in opportunities in research and education to provide a better basis for top executives to understand the key role of technology in management and corporate strategy

the industrial dynamics of open innovation evidence from the transformation of consumer electronics abstract this paper addresses how the open innovation concept as recently coined by henry chesbrough can be analyzed from an industrial dynamics perspective the main proposition of the paper is that the specific modes in which different companies manage open innovation in regard to an emerging technology reflect their differential position within the innovation system in question the nature and stage of maturity of the technological regime and the particular value proposition pursued by companies the proposition is analyzed through an in depth study of the current transformation of sound amplification from linear solid state technology to switched or digital technology within the consumer electronics system of innovation the analysis especially addresses the complex interplay between technology entrepreneurs and incumbents and demonstrates that open innovation sometimes has to be conducted under conditions of high transaction costs

global and domestic utilization of industrial relevant science patent citation analysis of science technology interactions and knowledge flows abstract the development of science based technologies may draw heavily on codified and tacit outputs from both domestic research bases and foreign sources having a view of the scientific underpinnings of these technical innovations and related knowledge diffusion and utilization processes especially those concerning public financed basic research is of major importance to policymakers nowadays some of those scientific and technical inputs are pivotal to technical inventions and are acknowledged as such by explicit references citations to related research papers in the reference list on the corresponding patents this case study deals with citations to dutch authored research papers on uspto patents granted during the period 1987 1996 results of the citation analysis reveal several important features of contributions made by the dutch science base to dutch invented and or foreign invented patents such as 1 a marked overall increase of patent citations to dutch research papers and 2 significant differences between domestic and foreign citation patterns where 3 domestic citation links are dominated by author inventor self citations and patents originating from the large r d intensive multinational firms such as philips these findings provide new empirical evidence that patent citation analysis produces systemic quantitative data providing strategic background information regarding nation specific and sector specific factors in domestic and cross border science technology linkages and knowledge flows

information aggregation around macroeconomic announcements revisions matter abstract i show that an empirical relation exists between stock returns on macroeconomic news announcement days and the future revisions of the released data but that this link differs across the business cycle using three major macroeconomic series that undergo significant revisions nonfarm payroll gross domestic product and industrial production i present evidence that daily returns on the standard poor s 500 index and revisions are positively related in expansions and negatively related in recessions the results suggest that revisions do matter i e that investors care about the final revised value of a macroeconomic series that they infer accurate information from the release of the preliminary inaccurate report and that the more precise information is aggregated into prices on the day of the initial announcement the results are consistent with the predictions of rational expectations trading models around public announcements combined with well established empirical results on the asymmetric interpretation of information across the business cycle

the effects of inflation news on high frequency stock returns previous research using daily returns finds conflicting evidence about the relationship between unanticipated inflation news and stock returns we explore the relationship by looking at the response in minutes and trades of size based stock portfolios to unexpected changes in the regularly scheduled producer price index and consumer price index announcements in particular we answer the following three questions 1 do stocks respond to inflation news 2 what is the speed and path of that response 3 is the response stable or does it vary with the economy the direction of the news or time

price formation and liquidity in the u s treasury market the response to public information the arrival of public information in the u s treasury market sets off a two stage adjustment process for prices trading volume and bid ask spreads in a brief first stage the release of a major macroeconomic announcement induces a sharp and nearly instantaneous price change with a reduction in trading volume demonstrating that price reactions to public information do not require trading the spread widens dramatically at announcement evidently driven by inventory control concerns in a prolonged second stage trading volume surges price volatility persists and spreads remain moderately wide as investors trade to reconcile residual differences in their private views how do financial markets form prices and provide liquidity when information arrives efforts to address this issue have led to an extensive microstructure literature on equity markets and to a lesser extent on the foreign exchange fx market relatively little work has focused on the u s treasury market however in spite of its importance in its own right and the advantages it offers as an alternative testing ground for microstructure hypotheses

innovation and bureaucracy under soft and hard budget constraints because of the inherent uncertainty promotion of innovation critically depends on screening mechanisms to select projects this paper studies the relationship between bureaucracy and financial constraints as two such mechanisms the lack of commitment to hard financial constraints interferes with its ex post screening capability ex ante bureaucratic screening is optimally chosen as a substitute however bureaucracy makes mistakes by rejecting promising projects and delays innovation and the efficiency loss due to soft financial constraints increases as prior knowledge becomes worse and as research stage investment requirements become lower in a centralized economy bureaucracy may reduce the number of parallel projects particularly for projects with higher uncertainties and less research stage requirements this theory fits much of the evidence and in particular it explains why the computer industry but not the nuclear or aerospace industries has fared so poorly in centralized economies the fundamental importance of innovation to the survival and evolution of economic systems and organizations has long been recognized marx 1978 schumpeter 1950 innovation is characterized by its inherent uncertainty because it is a process whose every element takes considerable time in revealing its true features and ultimate effects schumpeter 1950 p 83 and people are unable to anticipate the future impact of successful innovations even after their technical feasibility has been established rosenberg 1994 an understanding of how different systems and organizations deal with the uncertainties associated with innovation and the resultant consequences is crucial for understanding alternative economic systems and organizations in this paper we provide a theory to analyse how different systems screen uncertain innovative projects and the impact of the various screening mechanisms on those systems we distinguish two alternative screening mechanisms the bureaucratic screening mechanism vs the market screening mechanism the latter is directly linked to financial constraints with this perspective our theory explains why centralized economies did well in certain areas of innovation but fared poorly in others for instance in the early 1960s the west was frightened by the ussr s great success in launching the first unmanned satellite and the first manned space capsule while in the 1980s in contrast the centralized system

a study of the relationship between competitiveness and technological innovation capability based on dea models researchers and managers have been searching for appropriate methods to explore the relationship between technological innovation capability and competitiveness in recent years this study attempts to find a systematic quantitative methodology to tackle this problem in a recent survey covering 182 industrial innovative firms in china the traditional data envelopment analysis dea model was employed to analyze the data collected the research results show that only 16 of the enterprises operate on the best practice frontier and there are some inconsistencies between organizational innovation capability and competitiveness in many enterprises decreasing returns to scale were found among about 70 of the inefficient enterprises and increasing returns to scale were found among the remaining 30 of the inefficient enterprises thus the internal innovation harmonizing process in these enterprises is considerably inefficient based on the restricted ranges of the input output factors a multi objective dea projection model has also been developed in this study to provide a benchmark for auditing competitiveness research results further indicate that there is still much room for enterprises to improve competitiveness in situations of confining score ranges of technological innovation capability and competitiveness

the economic impact of industry funded university r d abstract in recent years industry has increased its direct funding of university r d this article examines whether such collaborative r d leads to increases in technological innovation in industry data are analyzed for the years 1953 through 1986 it is found that direct industry funding of university research is associated with subsequent increases in industry r d expenditures these expenditures include funding from both federal and industry sources this increase in r d expenditures occurs with a median lag of five years rival hypotheses are examined such as the effect of general university research expenditures however these hypotheses are rejected this article concludes by raising significant implications for policy

horizontal diversification in the danish national system of innovation the case of pharmaceuticals abstract the importance of advanced users in home markets as an inducement to technological innovation is now well recognised thereby providing an explanation for important parts of international export specialisation at the theoretical level upstream downstream interaction has been made the generic micro foundation of theories of national systems of innovation however this paper will argue that user producer interaction is not the only country specific inducement mechanism to innovation rather the finding of this paper is in line with the proposition that when firms are science based linkages tend to be horizontal rather than vertical the paper mobilises historical and bibliometric methods to trace the long term development of technology at the danish pharmaceutical company novo nordisk and its links with the local particularly university environment the paper demonstrates the importance of science based competencies in moving from natural resource based technologies to those of greater sophistication thereby influencing trade specialisation of advanced countries

asset stock accumulation and sustainability of competitive advantage given incomplete factor markets appropriate time paths of flow variables must be chosen to build required stocks of assets that is critical resources are accumulated rather than acquired in strategic factor markets barney barney j 1986 strategic factor markets expectations luck and business strategy management sci october 1231 1241 sustainability of a firm s asset position hinges on how easily assets can be substituted or imitated imitability is linked to the characteristics of the asset accumulation process time compression diseconomies asset mass efficiencies inter connectedness asset erosion and causal ambiguity

edwin mansfield s contributions to the economics of technology abstract edwin mansfield s contributions to the economics of technology are summarized from the early 1960s through his death in 1997 mansfield s methodology is discussed as are his contributions on the diffusion of technical innovation the effect of firm size on innovation the role of academic and basic research in increasing innovation and productivity international technology transfer and the inaccuracy of technological forecasts the economics profession s evaluation of the relative importance of mansfield s work is presented using as evidence citation counts of his works collected from the social science citation index ssci identified as among mansfield s most important contributions are his work on the importance of academic research for industrial innovations his empirical estimation of the rates of diffusion of different innovations and his estimation of the private and social returns from investments in industrial innovations finally we present mansfield s advice on the future of the economics of technology

chapter 11 and asbestos encouraging private enterprise or conspiring to avoid liability this paper explores the american bankruptcy system especially the chapter 11 code which since 1978 has allowed insolvent companies the opportunity to restructure and reorganise with the benefit of court protection from creditors particular attention is focused on asbestos companies such as johns manville which have been among the most consistent and controversial filers for bankruptcy under chapter 11 the history of asbestos and chapter 11 is explored against the backdrop of the burgeoning asbestos crisis caused by increasing mortality and litigation some of the business and ethical issues involved are highlighted by examining in detail a recent bankruptcy federal mogul t n in 2001 that has implications in both britain and america chapter 11 bankruptcy is evaluated particularly in the light of the trend towards similar mechanisms of insolvency in the uk europe and the rest of the world it is concluded that certainly as regards the experience with asbestos chapter 11 offers an inefficient and inequitable method of rehabilitating or rescuing failing businesses

business strategies in more and less innovative firms in canada abstract this study investigates differences in the policies being pursued by more innovative and less innovative firms it focuses on a broad group of strategies in marketing finance production management and human resources and asks whether there are key areas in which the strategies being followed by more and less innovative firms differ it also investigates how the activities of firms in each of these areas differ finally it compares the performance of more and less innovative firms the study finds that more innovative firms place a greater emphasis on management human resources marketing financing government programs and services and production efficiencies each of these areas is important finally more innovative firms are more successful than less innovative firms

the effects of american and japanese style employment and compensation practices on innovation success in the global marketplace increasingly requires that firms develop capabilities in innovation in this paper we argue that firms can use employment and compensation practices to foster innovation and support for innovation by employees conversely some employment and compensation systems will inhibit innovation a system that allows gain sharing by employees and provides employment assurance will foster innovation in the firm however a system that compensates employees with a fixed wage and allows for termination at will contains anti innovative incentives the former system is the prototypical japanese system particularly in large firms while the latter system is the prototypical american system the commercial success of japanese firms is increasingly attributed to successful innovation particularly in processes we argue that this success is partly attributable to the japanese style system of employment and compensation none of this suggests however that the japanese style practices c

science dependence of technologies evidence from inventions and their inventors abstract articulating a compelling economic rationale to justify investments in research by definition furthest removed from direct immediate economic benefit is perhaps one of chief challenges of r d managers policy makers and science analysts in the years ahead although several innovation studies and surveys have provided some convincing empirical evidence of impacts and benefits of research to technical progress there is still an urgent need for comprehensive models reliable data and analytical tools to describe and monitor links between r d and industrial innovation in more detail as for the role of scientific and engineering research in the innovation process this paper reports on the findings of a novel methodology to increase our understanding of the contribution of research efforts to successful technical inventions the approach is based on a nation wide mail survey amongst inventors working in the corporate sector and the public research sector in the netherlands the inventors inside information regarding their patented inventions and related technological innovations on the market provided a range of quantitative data on the importance of the underpinning research activities statistical models attempting to explain the degree of science dependence of the inventions identify a range of relevant variables covering the inventor s own capabilities and previous r d achievements external information sources as well as the inventor s r d environment in general some 20 of the private sector innovations turned out to be partially based on public sector research furthermore citations in patents referring to basic research literature were found to be invalid indictors of a technology s science dependence

the ethics of using chapter xi as a management strategy in the past decade the use of the chapter xi has soared to the detriment of many creditors workers and consumers a good number of cases were not based on imminent insolvency but on firms attempts to avoid litigation claims against them to terminate labor or other contractual obligations or to gain new financing

patterns of technological competence accumulation a proposition for empirical measurement this article develops a typology that describes and measures different types of technological competence accumulation the notion of accumulation comprises not only the state but also the change in competence and hence it complies with the criticism of the static approaches to competence management the typology of competence accumulation enables a comparison of firm profiles that lead to identification of four groups of firm behavior across the telecommunications industry the relationship between the firm and the industry level is established on the condition that each firm s competence level depends on the firms mutual relationships with other firms in the same industry known as red queen evolution the four groups of firm behaviour are therefore not considered as groups of independent firms that are similar by coincidence but as patterns of behavior within the telecommunications industry which allows for a discussion of more general implications for management of technology copyright 2005 oxford university press

assessing spillovers from universities to firms evidence from french firm level data we assess the importance of information flows from universities to innovative firms and determine the relative contribution of formal collaboration and pure knowledge spillovers in this process we find that spillovers provide the most benefit to firms that imitate existing technologies or those that are involved in incremental innovation on the other hand highly innovative firms appear to derive most benefit from collaborative research with foreign universities indeed highly innovative firms are at the frontier of the academic knowledge in their industry therefore they only marginally benefit from aggregate or industry wide spillovers they require new forms of academic knowledge that they acquire through formal cooperation with foreign universities

sectoral patterns of technical change towards a taxonomy and a theory abstract the purpose of the paper is to describe and explain sectoral patterns of technical change as revealed by data on about 2000 significant innovations in britain since 1945 most technological knowledge turns out not to be information that is generally applicable and easily reproducible but specific to firms and applications cumulative in development and varied amongst sectors in source and direction innovating firms principally in electronics and chemicals are relatively big and they develop innovations over a wide range of specific product groups within their principal sector but relatively few outside firms principally in mechanical and instrument engineering are relatively small and specialised and they exist in symbiosis with large firms in scale intensive sectors like metal manufacture and vehicles who make a significant contribution to their own process technology in textile firms on the other hand most process innovations come from suppliers these characteristics and variations can be classified in a three part taxonomy based on firms 1 supplier dominated 2 production intensive 3 science based they can be explained by sources of technology requirements of users and possibilities for appropriation this explanation has implications for our understanding of the sources and directions of technical change firms diversification behaviour the dynamic relationship between technology and industrial structure and the formation of technological skills and advantages at the level of the firm the region and the country

the joint response of stock and foreign exchange markets to macroeconomic surprises using us and japanese data abstract this paper investigates the joint response of stock and foreign exchange fx market returns to macroeconomic surprises employing a system method of estimation that allows for the cross country and cross market interaction for asset returns and risk premia using us and japanese data we find that us stock markets are asymmetrically responsive to domestic developments in output growth and interest rates but are not influenced by macroeconomic surprises from japan the surprise in the fx market seems to affect stock markets in the us and japan respectively in particular we find that the interest rate surprise in the us and inflation surprise in japan tend to overstate the impact that these surprises would have on the respective stock market the impact of the surprises would appear smaller if macroeconomic developments induced by the fx market were incorporated into the model

the reaction of stock returns to news about fundamentals in good times stock prices react negatively to good news and positively to bad news whereas in bad times they react positively to good news and negatively to bad news to account for this stylized fact we consider an asset pricing model where the dividend growth rate switches between different values depending on the underlying state of the economy investors never observe the true dividend growth rate but learn about it through not only its realizations but also external signals such as macroeconomic indicators under plausible assumptions the differing precision of external signals across different states of the economy can change the sign of the market reaction to news from external signals in good and bad times this paper was accepted by brad barber finance

collaborative pre competitive r d and the firm abstract governments in many countries have supported programmes of collaborative pre competitive r d in enabling or generic technologies the paper is based on 6 years of research into theuk alvey advanced information technology it programme augmented by research on the swedish it4 programme our focus is the relationship between pre competitive collaborative r d and wider firm strategies and processes the underlying premises of the paper are that the benefits of pre competitive r d are long term rather than short term systemic rather than discrete and accessible only through analysis of processes rather than by counting outputs or calculating return on investment the research provides insights into the strategies and mechanisms of firms participation modes of collaboration and the process of technology transfer knowledge assimilation and application within a firm

stock prices and economic news this paper examines the daily response of stock prices to announcements about the money supply inflation real economic activity and the discountrate except for the discount rate survey data on market participants expectations of these announcements are used to identify the unexpected component of the announcements in order to test the efficient markets hypothesis that only the unexpected part of any announcement the surprise moves stock prices the empirical results support this hypothesis and indicate further that surprises related to monetary policy significantly affect stock prices there is only limited evidence of an impact from inflation surprises and no evidence of an impact from real activity surprises on the announcement days there is also only weak evidence of stock price responses to surprises beyond the announcement day this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

industrial governance structures innovation strategies and the case of japan sectoral or cross national comparative analysis in comparative research on industrial policy strategies attention has shifted from national level variables to sectoral variables in both the description and the explanation of policy the sectoral literature however lacks analytic focus and has provided little systematic insight into the causes of cross sectoral variance in governance structures and policy strategies based on recent contributions to the economics and sociology of formal organizations this article attempts to sharpen the concept of industrial sector and to provide a rationale for why sectoral structures and strategies vary next it develops a synthetic explanatory framework that combines sectoral analysis and national domestic structuralism in order to account for industrial innovation strategies in advanced capitalist countries in the final section the fruitfulness of this approach is illustrated by developing a new account of japan s success and failure in industrial innovation an account that overcomes the contradictions among the main alternatives offered in the past the key objective of the article however is to develop a new set of theoretical hypotheses for cross national research not a rigorous empirical test of its main propositions

conflicts of interest the ethics of usury social attitudes toward usury here defined using the archaic meaning as the taking of interest on loans have changed dramatically over the centuries from antiquity until the protestant reformation usury was regarded as an inherently evil activity today with few exceptions usury is met with moral indifference modern objections to usury are limited to protest against excessive interest rates rather than interest per se with this change in focus the very meaning of the term usury has also changed many early pronouncements against the taking of interest emphasized the plight of the poor but ironically the poor actually pay the highest rates of interest in the modern american economy despite the universality of usury some socio economic subcultures still manage to avoid the taking or giving of interest orthodox branches of both judaism and islam have maintained bans on usury throughout the centuries and up to the present time this is especially interesting in the case of judaism given the popular cultural image of the jew as usurer jewish free loan systems may actually offer a model for modern loan programs that can be designed to aid poor borrowers who are frequently shut out of mainstream financial services

is corporate bankruptcy efficient abstract auctions allocate resources to their highest valued uses yet bankruptcy does not use auctions instead judges determine a value and parcel out interests on the assumption that this valuation is correct errors inevitable in this process lead many persons to conclude that bankruptcy is inefficient this essay argues that the conclusion does not follow the costs of error in valuation may be less than the cost of conducting an auction legal rules endure because they are efficient or because they transfer wealth transfers are an implausible explanation of the current bankruptcy regime leaving efficiency as the prevailing explanation

consumer preferences and product and process r d firms often conduct both product and process r d consumer preferences typically play a vital role in determining these r d choices the economics literature however has mostly ignored the interrelationship between the r d choices of firms and consumer preferences istudy product and process r d from the perspective of their relationship with consumer preferences in doing so i find a novel distinction between the two kinds of r d this distinction can explain several empirical observations regarding firms choices of the two and can also potentially enable us to better empirically identify the two

innovating in the periphery the impact of local and foreign inventor mobility on the value of indian patents abstract we examine the impact of local and foreign labor mobility in india by modeling one regional and one global network each of which captures the inter organizational mobility of inventors our analysis of the regional network shows that within india the productivity of inventors does not improve when they move from foreign to indian organizations in the global network we find that indian organizations remain located in the periphery as a result of employing a small number of inventors from foreign organizations however in the instances when inventors are hired from foreign organizations they are able to produce patents with a higher impact in comparison to inventors hired from other indian organizations furthermore when the inventors are hired from abroad the impact of their patents is even higher in comparison the implications of these findings for innovation and policy in the emerging economy context are discussed

are preliminary announcements of the money stock rational forecasts abstract we develop a theoretical framework of analyzing preliminary announcements of economic data and then apply this framework to the money stock we find that preliminary announcements of the money stock are best characterized as measured with classical errors in variables that is the revision is not correlated with the true value of the series the revision is however forecastable using information available at the time of the preliminary announcement our ability to forecast the revision implies that preliminary announcements are not rational estimates of the true money stock

the influence of market demand upon innovation a critical review of some recent empirical studies abstract a number of recent empirical studies of technical change at the level of the individual firm have concluded that market demand is the dominant influence upon the innovation process calling forth innovations in market economies the pace of innovation in the private sector heavily influences the growth of national output and productivity and these studies and their conclusions have therefore received much attention having been extensively quoted in discussions of appropriate government policy for the encouragement of innovation this paper reviews a number of these studies and concludes that their findings and the interpretations of their findings in the secondary literature are seriously flawed and in many cases invalid the proposition that market demand governs the innovation process is by no means conclusively demonstrated in these studies and they are therefore inadequate and inappropriate guides for the formulation of policy most of the studies examined employ a working definition of demand factors which is so broad as to embrace a range of possible influences upon innovation which should more properly be classified elsewhere the concept of demand utilized in these studies bears little resemblance to the more restrictive and precise definition of market demand found in economics in addition the phenomena analyzed in these studies are a very heterogeneous lot the studies do not address identical empirical questions and their findings are as a result neither uniform nor unambiguous both demand and supply side influences are crucial to understanding the innovation process and it is the exclusive preoccupation with only one set of these forces which is criticized in this paper some implications of the criticism for government policy toward innovation are discussed in the conclusion

information quality and long run risk asset pricing implications i study the asset pricing implications of the quality of public information about persistent productivity shocks in a general equilibrium model with kreps porteus preferences low information quality is associated with a high equity premium a low volatility of consumption growth and a low volatility of the risk free interest rate the relationship between information quality and the equity premium differs from that in endowment economies my calibration improves substantially upon the bansal yaron model in terms of the moments of the wealth consumption ratio and the return on aggregate wealth in this paper i introduce learning into a production based long run risk model learning improves the asset pricing implications of the model along three dimensions it increases the equilibrium equity premium reduces the volatility of consumption growth and reduces the volatility of the risk free interest rate i show that because of the production economy setting the relationship between information quality and the equity premium differs from that found in pure exchange economies see e g veronesi 2000 quantitatively my model improves substantially upon the bansal and yaron 2004 model in terms of its predictions about the volatility of the return on aggregate wealth and the wealth consumption ratio compared to bansal and yaron 2004 i use a lower relative risk aversion rra parameter two and a higher intertemporal elasticity of substitution ies parameter two my model generates a lower risk premium on the market portfolio 5 06 per year but does roughly as well as the bansal and yaron 2004 model according to other measures commonly used to assess the performance of consumption based asset pricing models such as the key moments of the risk free interest rate and the consumption growth rate more specifically i consider a general equilibrium model with a linear production technology and kreps porteus preferences kreps and porteus 1978 hengjie ai is at the fuqua school of business duke university this paper is based on chap

on the sources and significance of interindustry differences in technological opportunities abstract the set of technological opportunities in a given industry is one of the fundamental determinants of technical advance in that line of business we examine the concept of technological opportunity and discuss three categories of sources of those opportunities advances in scientific understanding and technique technological advances originating in other industries and in other private and governmental institutions and feedbacks from an industry s own technological advances data from the yale survey on industrial research and development are used to measure the strength of various sources of technological opportunity and to discern interindustry differences in the importance of these sources we find that interindustry differences in the strength and sources of technological opportunities contribute importantly to explanations of cross industry variation in r d intensity and technological advance

international competitiveness technical change and the state the machine tool industry in taiwan and japan abstract it is widely accepted that the growth performance of japan and the asian newly industrialized countries hong kong singapore south korea and taiwan is partly the result of the international competitiveness they have achieved in a number of export industries it remains however to explain how this competitiveness was achieved in the first part of the paper an attempt at such an explanation based on the theory of comparative advantage is critically examined it is argued that while this explanation does have some explanatory power it does not deal adequately with a the role of technical and productivity change b the causal mechanisms underlying economic growth and c the role of the state the rest of the paper examines the case of machine tools in taiwan and japan showing the importance of these three factors as well as a number of others as determinants of international competitiveness the paper ends with a discussion of policy dilemmas relating to international competitiveness in the taiwanese machine toot industry

r d reactions to high technology import competition for a seventeen year panel covering 308 u s manufacturers the authors analyze companies r d spending reactions to changes in high technology imports on average r d sales ratios were reduced in the short run as imports rose reactions tended to be more aggressive the more concentrated the markets were in which the firms operated when company r d operations were multinational and with greater company size and diversification reactions were less aggressive when special trade barriers had been erected reactions became more aggressive over the longer run copyright 1992 by mit press

union bargaining power subcontracting and innovation we show that if a firm can subcontract production to an informal sector an increase in union power may either increase or decrease innovation an increase in union power makes the firm worse off irrespective of its effect on innovation however in contrast to the usual belief an increase in union power may increase consumer surplus and decrease union utility by affecting innovation thus suggesting that a union may not want to be too powerful an increase in union power may create an ambiguous effect on social welfare our analysis provides new insights to the relation between union power and innovation

r d investment and financing choices a comprehensive perspective abstract we posit that the effects of r d investment on financing choices depend on the degree of intervention barriers and appropriation discrepancy between capital providers and the firm based on these two contingencies we categorize financing instruments into four types common equity common stock convertible securities preferred stock and convertible debt transactional debt corporate bonds and relational debt bank and commercial loans from the experiences of 39 petroleum firms during the period 1976 2005 we found r d investment has a positive effect on the use of common equity a u shaped effect on the use of convertible securities and an inverted u shaped effect on the use of relational debt to raise capital these effects are sustained over several years

differential interpretation of public signals and trade in speculative markets most models of trade in speculative markets assume that agents interpret public information identically we provide empirical evidence on the relation between the volume of trade and stock returns around public announcements and we argue that the evidence is inconsistent with this assumption we then develop a model of trade around public announcements that incorporates differential interpretations and is consistent with the observed volume return relation then we test the standard model of belief revision underlying most models of trade using stock brokerage research analysts earnings forecasts the hypthesis of identical interpretations seems inconsistent with the forecast revisions in these data

pawnbroking in america the economics of a forgotten credit market this paper surveys the role of pawnbroking in u s credit markets among the findings are pawnshops provide very small secured loans to millions of low income americans excluded from bank and finance company credit most states regulate pawnshop finance charges with the majority setting ceilings between 36 and 240 percent apr over the past century pawnbroking has grown dramatically in the southern and central mountain states while shrinking in the northeast this article offers explanations for these trends as well as for the recent nationwide boom in the industry copyright 1991 by ohio state university press

linking product and process innovations and modes of international sourcing in global competition a case of foreign multinational firms in increasingly complex global competition multinational firms u s and foreign alike have stepped up international sourcing of components and finished products to serve various markets since an increasing portion of global competition is shaped by european and japanese multinational firms with due emphasis on product quality and manufacturing it is an opportune time to examine the like among their product development manufacturing and sourcing activities those european and japanese multinational firms marketing products in the united states are chosen as subjects of this study

theoretically sound practically useless government grants for industrial r d in australia abstract for nearly twenty years the australian government has relied on a system of grants to encourage r d activity in firms despite low and declining r d effort in this sector and only equivocal evidence that grants were having the desired effect the board that administers the grants programme has regularly expressed its total confidence in its success indeed the government has long relied on grants as the foundation of its industrial r d policy until recently at the cost of any major alternative programme much of this confidence has been encouraged by the combined influence of market failure theory and faith in the linear model of technological change the first explaining what is wrong rather than how it may be put right and the second imputing a simplicity to the innovative process which suggests that if something is wrong it can be easily and assuredly rectified by stimulating r d

the national system of innovation in historical perspective contrary to some recent work on so called globalisation this paper argues that national and regional systems of innovation remain an essential domain of economic analysis their importance derives from the networks of relationships which are necessary for any firm to innovate whilst external international connections are certainly of growing importance the influence of the national education system industrial relations technical and scientific institutions government policies cul tural traditions and many other national institutions is fundamental the historical examples of germany japan and the former ussr illustrate this point as well as the more recent contrast between east asian and latin american countries introduction the national system of friedrich list according to this author s recollections the first person to use the expression national system of innovation was bengt ake lundvall and he is also the editor of a highly original and thought provoking book 1992 on this subject however as he and his colleagues would be the first to agree and as lundvall himself points out the idea actually goes back at least to friedrich list s conception of the national system of political economy 1841 which might just as well have been called the national system of innovation the main concern of list was with the problem of germany overtaking england and for underdeveloped countries as germany then was in relation to england he advocated not only protection of infant industries but a broad range of policies designed to accelerate or to make possible industrialisation and economic growth most of these policies were concerned with learning about new technology and applying it the racialist and colonialist overtones of the book were in strong contrast to the inter nationalist cosmopolitan approach of the classical free trade economists and list s belief that holland and denmark should join the german bund and acquire german nationality because of their descent and whole character reads somewhat strangely in the european community of today nevertheless despite these unattractive features of his outlook he clearly anticipated many contemporary theories after reviewing the changing ideas of economists about development in the years since the second world war the world bank 1991 concludes that it is intangible investment in knowledge accumulation which is decisive rather than physical capital investment as was at one time believed pages 33 35 the report cites the new growth theory

capitalism as an engine of progress economists from marx to schumpeter have touted capitalism as an engine of technical progress but what kind of an engine is it what are its key components how does it work

the social shaping of the national science base abstract innovation studies confirm de tocqueville s prediction that continuous technical change in business firms in modern society would require the development in close proximity of publicly funded basic research and associated training the rate and direction of the development of a country s science base is strongly influenced by its level of economic development and the composition of its economic and social activities in other words it is socially shaped

ethical issues in bankruptcy a jewish perspective the ethical issues involved in bankruptcy affect the debtor the creditor and the society in which they operate facing the debtor is his responsibility to pay back the loans and credit extended to him while the creditor has to decide whether or not to press his legal rights irrespective of the consequences to the debtor society will have to determine to what extent if any it is prepared or obligated to fund the rehabilitation of the debtor and those employees whose employment is terminated as a result of the bankruptcy these issues will be determined according to the value structure of the particular souly in which debtor and creditor operate this paper views the issues in a jewish perspective debtors are considered to always be liable for their debts and there is a moral shame attached to bankruptcy except in those cases where it is caused by natural disasters while creditors are taught and encouraged to voluntarily waive their rights this is considered charity with all its negative overtones the courts are obligated to review the debtors assets and sell them if necessary to meet the creditors loans leaving only basic necessities for minimal living of the debtor and his family society however including the creditor a part of the group are obligated to fund the rehabilitation of the debtor either through its interest free loan charity or the provision of alternative employment these may be funded out of communal taxes

asset stock accumulation and the sustainability of competitive advantage reply authors reply to comments regarding their paper dierickx i k cool 1989 asset stock accumulation and the sustainability of competitive advantage management sci

neither a borrower nor a lender be an economic analysis of interest restrictions and usury laws interest rate restrictions are pervasive and important regulations this article suggests that these restrictions served in part as a primitive means of social insurance lowering the rate of interest effectively transfers income to states of the world where individuals have a high marginal utility of income and are borrowers from states of the world where individuals have a low marginal utility of income and are lenders the model predicts that interest rate restrictions will be tighter when income inequality is high and impermanent and when growth rates are low furthermore loan supply must be somewhat inelastic data from u s states support a connection between inequality income shocks and tighter usury laws usury laws were also stricter in older more stable communities the history of usury laws suggests that this social insurance mechanism is one reason usury laws exist and persist but this history also suggests that usury laws have played many roles across time and that no one theory can po

trends in the substitution of production factors to technology empirical analysis of the inducing impact of the energy crisis on japanese industrial abstract japan successfully overcame the energy crises of 1973 and 1979 maintaining productivity in the face of drastically increased energy prices despite the fragile nature of its energy structure this was due to technological innovation efforts that led to rapid improvement in japan s industrial technology as a whole this paper tries to prove this hypothesis on the basis of an examination of the trends in the substitution of production factors by technology as represented by r d investment efforts since the first energy crisis in 1973 there have been a number of attempts to identify the possibility of substitutability of energy by other production factors but none have been successful in taking technology into account this paper tackles this subject on the basis of the measurement of the technological knowledge stock and en empirical analysis using a translog cost function incorporating this stock and shows that over the last two decades all production factors have been substituted by technology in japan s manufacturing industry or have been moving towards that direction

research and development human capital and trade performance in technology intensive manufactures a cross country analysis abstract this paper comprises an extensive examination of the relationship between commonly utilized policy indicators of national technological capability and observed trade success in technology intensive manufactures across 52 countries in the 1980s a central focus is the relative performance of policy indicators which directly measure innovative activity such as patent output and expenditure and employed scientists and engineers in r d versus those measuring general efforts at increasing national levels of human capital the study design is guided by the inter country intrasectoral approach outlined by dosi et al 19 it emphasizes differences in trade performance based on the notion of international competitiveness but also compares results for conventional revealed comparative advantage indices the large number of countries included and the nature of the policy objectives adopted have necessitated a highly aggregated approach using nation wide attributes and trade in one broad technologyintensive sector as the measure of demonstrated international competitiveness simple correlation and multiple regression techniques are used to assess the association of four main sets of national attributes indicators of direct innovative activity general human capital development physical capital formation and natural resource endowment with technology intensive trade performance the empirical findings provide further support for the importance of national differences in technological capability as a determinant of structural and international competitiveness within the technology intensive sector of production they suggest that policy indicators measuring actual innovative activity and physical capital formation have a much closer link to technology intensive trade than the general educational effort or output indicators demand side measures which proxy the actual employment and application of resources for r d purposes demonstrate the strength of association required for reliable policy evaluation of real national differences in technological capability the poor performance of the general human capital supply variables highlights the need for a careful consideration of the optimality of the allocation of substantial levels of scarce national resources to broad based educational output a number of other significant results concerning the link between technology indicators technology intensive trade and economic performance are discussed

new technology based firms in innovation networks symplectic and generative impacts abstract the traditional body of research on new technology based firms reflects the linear sequential view of the technological innovation process the modern innovation theory views the innovation process as a complex interative process that is essentially systemic in character the systemic view of the technological innovation process largely remains to be implemented in research on new technology based firms the present study represents an attempt to bridge this gap by applying a systemic approach to research on new technology based firms the empirical part of the present study develops and empirically tests a model that classifies new technology based firms into science based firms and engineering based firms the two categories are defined in terms of the functional relationship between the new technology based firm and the articulation process of basic technologies in the model new technology based firms are analyzed in terms of the systemic knowledge conversion process to which they are attached the model receives support in three empirical databases compiled among new technology based firms in finland the united kingdom and silicon valley the analysis of the silicon valley database is the first ever systematic survey of the spin off firms of stanford university

taking the pulse of the economy measuring gdp national income and product accounts best known by one of their principle aggregates gross domestic product gdp are produced by virtually every nation in the world simon kuznets and richard stone both later to become nobel prize winners led the creation of the national accounts for the united states and the united kingdom respectively so what exactly does gdp measure how is it constructed why do the gdp and other national accounts estimates sometimes present a different picture of the economy than other economic indicators this article is intended to help answer these questions by providing a broad overview of the measurement techniques used in estimating gdp and the national accounts in the united states in the united states the gdp and the national accounts estimates are fundamentally based on detailed economic census data and other information that is available only once every five years the challenge lies in developing a framework and methods that take these economic census data and combine them using a mosaic of monthly quarterly and annual economic indicators to produce quarterly and annual gdp estimates for example one problem is that the other economic indicators that are used to extrapolate gdp in between the five year economic census data such as retail sales housing starts and manufacturers shipments of capital goods are often collected for purposes other than estimating gdp and

corporate strategy and the management of innovation and technology this paper explores the evolution of corporate organization with special attention to the organization of r d more specifically the paper addresses the comparative long term organizational dynamics of management of innovation and technology in two different types of technology based industrial companies the related diversifier pursuing synergistic economies and the vertical integrator pursuing vertical economies these types of companies are illustrated by case studies of two large danish manufacturing companies the analysis aligns the strategic management literature on strategy and structure in large companies with the literature on management of innovation and technology it is argued that the organizational design for managing innovation and technology is contingent on both the overall strategy structure profile and dynamics of the companies and on key characteristics of their particular innovation and technology strategies

why are japanese firms so innovative in engineering technology abstract japanese firms belonging to the electric and electronics industry have been producing a large number of innovations concentrated in the field of engineering technology and directly related to commercial products one reason why japanese firms have such characteristics can be explained by their unique behavior and organization of research and development r d the behavior of the r d division of japanese firms is characterized by less independence from other divisions of the firms a close relationship with other divisions and concerted behavior to maximize total corporate profits these are indicated by the fact that r d funds are allocated flexibly by taking into account the intentions of other operational divisions or the headquarter s office and the fact that there exists a unique career path in a japanese firm by which r d personnel do not always stay in the research division but are frequently assigned to other various divisions as they climb upward however these structural and behavioral characteristics of japanese corporate r d which so far have been efficient in applied research and product development are not adaptable to basic research recently japanese firms are seeking a new r d organization and management system to solve the problem

macroeconomic forecasting using diffusion indexes this article studies forecasting a macroeconomic time series variable using a large number of predictors the predictors are summarized using a small number of indexes constructed by principal component analysis an approximate dynamic factor model serves as the statistical framework for the estimation of the indexes and construction of the forecasts the method is used to construct 6 12 and 24 monthahead forecasts for eight monthly u s macroeconomic time series using 215 predictors in simulated real time from 1970 through 1998 during this sample period these new forecasts outperformed univariate autoregressions small vector autoregressions and leading indicator models

the roles of science in technological innovation abstract one of the central issues in science policy during the past decade has been the extent to which the national levels of expenditure on scientific education and research influence the standard of living this paper provides empirical evidence to show that the pay off from this investment in science is more complex and indirect than previously supposed

strategic and financial performance implications of global sourcing strategy a contingency analysis using a contingency model of global sourcing strategy this study investigated the moderating effects of sourcing related factors on the relationship between sourcing strategy and a product s strategic and financial performance the results lent some support to the contingency model of global sourcing strategy in that product innovation process innovation and asset specificity were significant moderator variables for financial but not strategic performance however the results provided no support for bargaining power of suppliers and transaction frequency as moderator variables in other words in achieving high financial performance for a product whether a particular sourcing strategy should be used for a particular product depended on the levels of product innovation process innovation and asset specificity

asset profiles for technological innovation abstract this paper proposes a conceptual distinction between four generic categories of assets for technological innovation 1 scientific research assets 2 process innovative assets 3 product innovative application assets and 4 aesthetic design assets technological innovation may sometimes require the activation of only one asset type but more often a specific constellation of more asset types has to be mobilized the asset categories differ profoundly with respect not only to their respective competence bases but also with respect to their functional contribution to industrial innovation and mostly also to their organizational attachment this way of conceiving technological innovation is opposed to the one dimensional r d conception that tends to view r d as one functional asset along with others like manufacturing or marketing it is argued that the different innovative assets are often located in different organizational settings within the corporation the coupling between assets is discussed in terms of inter asset specificity we illustrate the great variation of innovative asset profiles across a wide spectrum of product categories the concept of technological trajectories is reinterpreted in terms of asset profile oscillations and regroupings finally the framework is related to recent efforts to formulate a resource based theory of the firm and the implications for innovation strategy is discussed

towards an economic theory of the multiproduct firm this paper outlines a theory of the multiproduct firm important building blocks include excess capacity and its creation market imperfections and the peculiarities of organizational knowledge including its fungible and taut character a framework is adopted in which profit seeking firms are seen to diversify in order to avoid the high transactions costs associated with using various markets to trade the services of various specialized assets neoclassical explanations of the multiproduct firm are shown to be seriously deficient

an audit of technological innovation capabilities in chinese firms some empirical findings in beijing china abstract recent studies have advocated different technological innovation capabilities tics and discussed their impact on a firm s competitive performance this paper introduces a study framework of innovation audit and examines the relevance of seven tics to building and sustaining the competitiveness of chinese firms empirical data was acquired through a recent study of 213 chinese firms in beijing china regression analysis was employed to examine the correlation between tics and innovation rate sales growth and product competitiveness among these firms the findings verify that r d and resources allocation capabilities are the two most important tics a strong r d capability could safeguard innovation rate and product competitiveness in large and medium sized firms whereas a resources allocation capability would enhance the sales growth in small firms however the impact of learning and organising capabilities on a firm s innovation performance has yet to be investigated the findings of this paper suggest that chinese firms should consider a more balanced focus on their tics harmonising enhancement in order to maintain their sustainable development effectively plan and implement their innovation strategies as well as enhance their whole innovation capability chinese firms should closely relate their tics to the formulation of technology strategy and harmonisation of innovation and r d activities

news and noise in g 7 gdp announcements revisions to gdp announcements are known to be quite large in all g 7 countries quarterly growth rate revisions are regularly more than a full percentage point at an annualized rate we examine the predictability of these revisions using standard statistical tests of whether the preliminary announcement is a rational forecast of the subsequently revised data previous work suggests that u s gdp revisions are largely unpredictable as would be the case if the revisions reflect news not available at the time that the preliminary number is produced we find that the degree of predictability varies throughout the g 7 although we find little predictability in u s revisions the data revisions for several foreign countries are highly predictable we also perform a simple real time forecasting exercise showing that for several countries the predictability of data revision could be used to generate improved preliminary data

biosecurity bioterrorism and the governance of science the increasing convergence of science and security policy science and security policy are increasingly overlapping because of concerns that legitimate research might be misapplied to develop biological weapons this has led to an expansion of security policy to cover broad areas of research and scientific practice including funding publishing peer review employment materials transfer post graduate teaching and academics ability to design and perform experiments and disseminate research such changes raise policy concerns because many of the technologies used to produce biological weapons are dual use and have legitimate peaceful applications as a result attempts to control their generation diffusion or application can have unintended impacts on socially beneficial applications this paper explores recent changes in the governance of science and technology and contributes to future policy making by assessing the relative merits of understanding the development of dual use policy in terms of either technology transfer or technology convergence 2007 elsevier b v all rights reserved

relative efficiency of r d activities a cross country study accounting for environmental factors in the dea approach abstract this paper applies the production framework associated with the data envelopment analysis dea method to evaluate the relative efficiency of r d activities across countries r d capital stocks and manpower are treated as inputs while patents and academic publications are considered as outputs a three stage approach which involves using dea for evaluating efficiency and using tobit regressions for controlling the external environment is applied to 30 countries in recent years the results show that less than one half of the countries are fully efficient in r d activities and that more than two thirds are at the stage of increasing returns to scale most countries have a more significant advantage in producing sci cum ei publications than in generating patents

dynamics in innovation systems evidence from japan s game software industry in contrast to the us and recently europe japan appears to be unsuccessful in establishing new industries an oft cited example is japan s practical invisibility in the global business software sector literature has ascribed japan s weakness or conversely america s strength to the specific institutional settings and competences of actors within the respective national innovation system it has additionally been argued that unlike the american innovation system with its proven ability to give birth to new industries the inherent path dependency of the japanese innovation system makes innovation and establishment of new industries quite difficult however there are two notable weaknesses underlying current propositions postulating that only certain innovation systems enable the creation of new industries first they mistakenly confound context specific with general empirical observations and second they grossly underestimate or altogether fail to examine the dynamics within innovation systems this paper will show that it is precisely the dynamics within innovation systems dynamics founded on the concept of path plasticity which have enabled japan to charge forward as a global leader in a highly innovative field the game software sector 2008 elsevier b v all rights reserved

do markets respond more to more reliable labor market data a test of market rationality since 1979 the bureau of labor statistics bls has nearly quadrupled the size of the sample used to estimate monthly employment changes although first reported employment estimates are still noisy the magnitude of sampling variability has declined in proportion to the increase in the sample size a model of rational bayesian updating predicts that investors would assign more weight to the bls employment survey as it became more precise however a regression analysis of changes in interest rates on the day the employment data are released finds no evidence that the bond market s reaction to employment news intensified in the late 1980s or early 1990s for the time period as a whole an unexpected increase of 200 000 jobs is associated with an 8 basis point increase in the interest rate on 30 year treasury bonds and a 9 basis point increase in the interest rate on 3 month bills all else equal additionally announced hourly wage increases are associated with higher long tern interest rates while announced changes in the unemployment rate and revisions to past months employment estimates have a statistically insignificant effect on long term interest rates