interest rates and money in the measurement of monetary policy over the last 25 years a set of influential studies has placed interest rates at the heart of analyses that interpret and evaluate monetary policies in light of this work the federal reserve s recent policy of quantitative easing with its goal of affecting the supply of liquid assets appears to be a radical break from standard practice alternatively one could posit that the monetary aggregates when measured properly never lost their ability to explain aggregate fluctuations and for this reason represent an important omission from standard models and policy discussions in this context the new policy initiatives can be characterized simply as conventional attempts to increase money growth this view is supported by evidence that superlative divisia measures of money often help in forecasting movements in key macroeconomic variables moreover the statistical fit of a structural vector autoregression deteriorates significantly if such measures of money are excluded when identifying monetary

evidence on the cross country transmission of monetary shocks the international transmission of monetary shocks between the us and canada is explored focusing on real variables such as consumption investment employment and the bilateral trade balance along with measures of us and canadian money the empirical analysis examines the impact of a monetary shock in one country on real activity in both countries the long run analysis provides evidence of cointegration among the variables and suggests that money plays an important role in the equilibrium relationships between the two countries variance decompositions and impulse response functions reveal interesting avenues of real transmission in the short run the short run analysis provides strong evidence that us monetary shocks affect real activity in both the usa and canada the analysis also indicates that canadian monetary disturbances affect canadian and us real activity and that many of these effects are similar in magnitude to the effects of us monetary shocks the importance of the nominal exchange rate

on the low frequency relationship between public deficits and inflation summary we estimate the low frequency relationship between fiscal deficits and inflation and pay special attention to its potential time variation by estimating a time varying vector autoregression model for us data from 1900 to 2011 we find the strongest relationship neither in times of crisis nor in times of high public deficits but from the mid 1960s up to 1980 employing a structural decomposition of the low frequency relationship and further narrative evidence we interpret our results such that the low frequency relationship between fiscal deficits and inflation is strongly related to the conduct of monetary policy and its interaction with fiscal policy after world war ii copyright 2015 john wiley sons ltd

interpreting the macroeconomic time series facts the effects of monetary policy existing theory and evidence on the effects of monetary policy are reviewed substantial room for disagreement among economists remains new evidence based on multivariate time series studies of several countries is presented while certain patterns in the data consistent with effective monetary policy are strikingly similar across countries others particularly the tendency of interest rate increases to predict high inflation are harder to reconcile with effective monetary policy

asymmetries in housing and financial market institutions and emu despite convergence pressures differences in housing and financial market institutions across the 15 member states of the european union are still enormous this paper argues that they have profound effects on the responsiveness of output and inflation in the different countries to changes in short term interest rates as well as to asset market shocks of external origin the economic reasoning behind this claim is set out and the institutional differences are described the paper assesses the sometimes conflicting empirical evidence on this issue barriers to convergence and implications for labour market flexibility are discussed the uk ireland finland and sweden tend to cluster at one extreme of the relevant institutional characteristics the paper concludes with a set of proposals for institutional reforms which would significantly reduce the tensions within emu and the potential for instability in these economies entailed by emu membership

valuation methods and policy making in environmental economics 1 valuation methods and policy making in environmental economics relevance and scope h folmer e van ierland part i the valuation of public goods 2 non market asset prices a comparison of three valuation approaches r c d arge j f shogren 3 valuing public goods in a risky world an experiment p o johansson 4 recreational values pareto optimality and timber supply p o johansson k g lofgren k g maler 5 estimating social benefits of environmental improvements from reduced acid rain deposition a contingent valuation survey s navrud part ii the valuation of health and life 6 benefits of reduced morbidity from air pollution control a survey m dickie s gerking 7 valuing a public good direct and indirect valuation approaches to the measurement of the benefits from air pollution abatement m shechter m kim l golan 8 environmental regulation and the valuation of life interindustry mobility and the market price of safety h w herzog jr a m schlottmann part iii cost benefit analysis 9 disequilibrium cost benefit rules an exposition and extension p o johansson k g lofgren 10 macroeconomic cost benefit analysis of environmental programmes a nentjes part iv aspects of policy making 11 benefit estimation for complex policies a randall j hoehn 12 the acid rain game k g maler index

how well does sticky information explain the dynamics of inflation output and real wages abstract this paper finds that a model with sticky information is less successful than a standard model featuring nominal rigidities inflation indexation and habits in generating the dynamics triggered by technology shocks as estimated by a vector autoregression using u s macroeconomic data the real wage responses after a permanent increase in productivity clearly favor the standard model the sticky information model fails to replicate the observed inertial response in the real wage whereas the standard model relies on inflation indexation in wage setting to achieve a better fit the two models are however statistically equivalent after a shock in monetary policy

when did unsystematic monetary policy have an effect on inflation abstract an important stylized fact to emerge from var estimates is that exogenous monetary policy shocks also labelled unsystematic monetary policy have a delayed persistent hump shaped effect on inflation i argue that this empirical pattern is fragile in particular it disappears when one examines periods without large shifts in the level of inflation such as 1984 2005 an important consequence is that the hump shaped var estimated response of inflation is not appropriate to fit stylized models of the response of inflation around a stable steady state inflation level

the effect of money shocks on interest rates in the presence of conditional heteroskedasticity most current empirical work finds no evidence that money shocks lower interest rates we show that these nonresults are mainly due to a failure to model the conditional heteroskedasticity of interest rates autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity arch models find a significant liquidity effect where ordinary least squares ols models do not the existence of a liquidity effect is found using different models and sample periods when arch models are used in estimation but never when ols is employed

curtailing the black box german banking groups in the transmission of monetary policy abstract the paper examines the role of portfolio decisions of german banking groups in the transmission of monetary policy a small econometric model is augmented with segregated bank balance sheet variables in order to study potentially different effects of tight money on these variables the results provide evidence for banks playing an active role in the transmission process and are beneficial for two fields of research the findings indicate sectoral differences of monetary policy in line with transmission models based on informational frictions in addition the results lend econometric support to the existence of close bank customer ties for certain banking groups in germany whereas large banks adjust their credit position markedly following a monetary shock the smaller savings banks and credit cooperatives seem to shield their customers from the brunt of a policy tightening

reconsidering monetary policy an empirical examination of the relationship between interest rates and nominal gdp growth in the u s u k germany and japan abstract the rate of interest the price of money is said to be a key policy tool economics has in general emphasised prices this theoretical bias results from the axiomatic deductive methodology centring on equilibrium without equilibrium quantity constraints are more important than prices in determining market outcomes in disequilibrium interest rates should be far less useful as policy variable and economics should be more concerned with quantities including resource constraints to investigate we test the received belief that lower interest rates result in higher growth and higher rates result in lower growth examining the relationship between 3 month and 10 year benchmark rates and nominal gdp growth over half a century in four of the five largest economies we find that interest rates follow gdp growth and are consistently positively correlated with growth if policy makers really aimed at setting rates consistent with a recovery they would need to raise them we conclude that conventional monetary policy as operated by central banks for the past half century is fundamentally flawed policy makers had better focus on the quantity variables that cause growth

assessing the price and output effects of monetary policy in vietnam evidence from a var analysis using monthly data we perform a vector autoregressive analysis to measure the effects of monetary policy on the vietnamese economy we concentrate our attention on the period following the introduction of the law on central bank in january 1998 which brought the national monetary policy and its objectives in line with international practices contrary to previous studies on vietnam we find evidence suggesting that monetary policy through the manipulation of interest rates is an effective policy tool in stabilizing prices however credit growth tends to induce inflationary pressures in addition we find that an expansion of broad money supply leads to an increase in industrial production

are the effects of monetary policy asymmetric huntley schaller by building on the hamilton 1989 markov switching model we examine questions like does monetary policy have the same effect in expansions and recessions given that the economy is currently in a recession does a fall in interest rates increase the probability of an expansion does monetary policy have an incremental effect on the growth rate within a given state or does it only affect the economy if it is sufficiently strong to induce a state change e g from recession to expansion as suggested by models with sticky prices or finance constraints interest rate changes have larger effects during recessions jel e52 e32 much of the recent work in macroeconomics has proceeded under the assumption that variables follow linear stochastic processes with constant coefficients as a result some of the richness of the burns mitchell analysis such as its focus on asymmetries between recessions and expansions may well have been lost blanchard and fischer 1989 7 i introduction for decades macroeconomists have debated whether monetary policy has the same effect on real output in expansions and recessions as far back as the 1930s keynes and pigou debated whether monetary policy would have less effect on output during a severe economic downturn in the 1960s there were active debates on a very different proposition namely whether the rightward portion of the aggregate supply curve was vertical so that monetary policy would have less effect on real output during expansions in this article we provide a new type of evidence on whether monetary policy has different effects depending on whether the economy is in an expansion or recession empirical evidence on this issue is particularly relevant in light of new theoretical work in macroeconomics that predicts asymmetric effects of demand shocks conditional on the state of the economy two examples of this work are s s type models of price adjustment and models in which there are agency costs of financial intermediation 1 the intuition for the latter class of models is simple 2 when there is information asymmetry in financial markets agents may behave as if they were constrained for a variety of reasons these finance constraints are more likely to bind during recessions when the net worth of agents is low an increase in interest rates will then have two effects on investment the standard effect of increasing the cost of capital and therefore reducing investment demand and an additional effect of reducing liquidity e g by increasing debt service obligations and thus reducing investment demand for constrained agents as a result monetary policy actions that change interest rates will have greater effects during a recession 3 the s s type price adjustment models of ball and mankiw 1994 caballero and engel 1992 and tsiddon 1993 lead to a convex aggregate supply curve and therefore also imply that monetary policy will have stronger effects during recessions one of the more frequently cited empirical papers on the potentially asymmetric effects of monetary policy is cover 1992 which finds evidence that positive monetary shocks have different effects from negative monetary shocks we are looking at a different type of asymmetry namely between booms and recessions we study asymmetries using an extension of the markov switching model developed by hamilton 1989 estimated over the period 1955 93 in hamilton s econometric specification the growth rate of output depends on a state variable that corresponds to an expansion or recession this approach has several advantages first unlike linear projections it allows for nonlinearities and asymmetries second in estimating the recession coefficients it gives greater relative weight to observations that most clearly correspond to recessions and similarly for the expansion coefficients

were there regime switches in u s monetary policy working paper 2004 14 june 2004 abstract a multivariate model identifying monetary policy and allowing for simultaneity and regime switching in coefficients and variances is confronted with u s data since 1959 the best fit is with a model that allows time variation in structural disturbance variances only among models that also allow for changes in equation coefficients the best fit is for a model that allows coefficients to change only in the monetary policy rule that model allows switching among three main regimes and one rarely and briefly occurring regime the three main regimes correspond roughly to periods when most observers believe that monetary policy actually differed and the differences in policy behavior are substantively interesting though statistically ill determined the estimates imply monetary targeting was central in the early 80s but was also important sporadically in the 70s the changes in regime were essential neither to the rise in inflation in the 70s nor to its decline in the 80s jel classification e52 e47 c53 key words counterfactuals lucas critique policy rule monetary targeting simultaneity volatility model comparison i the debate over monetary policy change in an influential paper clarida gali and gertler 2000 cgg presented evidence that us monetary policy changed between the 1970 s and the 1980 s indeed that in the 70 s it was drastically worse they found that the policy rule apparently followed in the 70 s was one that when embedded in most stochastic general equilibrium models would imply non uniqueness of the equilibrium and hence vulnerability of the economy to sunspot fluctuations of arbitrarily large size their estimated policy rule for the later period on the other hand eliminated this indeterminacy these results are a possible explanation of the volatile and rising inflation of the 70 s and of its subsequent decline the cgg analysis has two important weaknesses one is that it fails to account for stochastic volatility us macroeconomic variables and particularly the federal funds rate have gone through periods of tranquility and of agitation with forecast error variances varying greatly from period to period ignoring such variation does not lead to inconsistent estimates of model parameters when the forecasting equations themselves are constant but it strongly biases toward a finding of changed parameters tests of the stability of the forecasting equations the other weakness is that the cgg analysis rests on powerful and implausible identifying assumptions they require that we accept that the response of the monetary authority to expected future inflation and output does not depend on the recent history of inflation money growth or output it is hard to understand why this should be so especially in the 70 s when monetarism was a prominent theme in policy debates congress was requiring reports from the fed of projected time paths of monetary aggregates and financial markets were reacting sensitively to weekly money supply numbers the requirement for existence and uniqueness of equilibrium in dynamic models is that the monetary policy rule show a more than unit response of interest rates to the sum of the logs of all nominal variables that appear on the right hand side of the reaction function if we force a particular measure of expected future inflation to proxy for all the nominal variables that actually appear independently in the reaction function we are bound to get distorted conclusions on the one hand because expected future inflation will be a noisy measure of the full set of nominal influences on policy we might get downward bias in our estimates from the usual errorsin variables effect on the other hand to the extent that expected future inflation like most expected future values shows less variation than current nominal variables we could find a mistaken scaling up of coefficients

real exchange rates and macroeconomics evidence and theory since the early 1980s a large body of research has thrown doubt on the relevance of macroeconomic models for understanding exchange rates the authors argue that a balanced reading of recent literature in exchange rate economics gives a more optimistic assessment many studies have established the pertinence of long run purchasing power parity ppp and the explanatory power of macroeconomic fundamentals in real exchange rate fluctuations a reasonably strong case can be made for a traditional macroeocnomic interpretation of real exchange rates which emphasizes short run price stickiness but long run ppp but a central new ingredient in this interpretation is the presence of international commodity market segmentation and persistent deviations from the law of one price an example is given of a dynamic general equilibrium model that can reproduce some of the observed features of real exchange rate fluctuations

inflation output and markup dynamics with forward looking wage and price setters abstract medium scale new keynesian models are sometimes criticized for their use of backward looking wage and price setting mechanisms and for assuming several types of disturbances including some that would be difficult to interpret economically we propose a dsge model with purely forward looking wage and price setters and parsimoniously chosen disturbances our model emphasizes an interplay between production firms networking and working capital firms can use working capital to finance all or a fraction of their outlays on production factors and use the output of other firms as an input in a what is often called a roundabout production structure our model generates a response of inflation which is mute on impact of a monetary policy shock but highly persistent and very hump shaped afterwards it also yields a large contract multiplier for output two times larger than the one implied by a model relying on indexation only we also show that the response of the price markup can be positive on impact of an expansionary monetary policy shock which differs from the standard countercyclical markup channel emphasized in conventional new keynesian models in contrast to models relying on indexation to past inflation our model produces non inertial responses of inflation to productivity and investment shocks a finding which is broadly consistent with the existing var evidence

the open economy consequences of u s monetary policy a failure to identify movements in the federal funds rate that are both unpredictable and independent of other determinants of open economy variables may lead to attenuation bias in the estimated effects of u s monetary policy on the exchange rate and foreign variables using a u s monetary policy measure which isolates unpredictable and independent federal funds rate changes we quantify the magnitude of the attenuation bias for the exchange rate and foreign variables the exchange rate appreciation following a monetary contraction is up to 4 times larger than a recursively identified var estimate there is stronger evidence of foreign interest rate pass through the expenditure reducing effects of a u s monetary policy contraction dominate any expenditure switching effects leading to a positive conditional correlation of international outputs and prices we compare our results with those obtained using identification based upon 1 non recursive var restrictions and 2 restrictions derived from high frequency asset price behavior

is the us dollar a suitable anchor for the newly proposed gcc currency responses of inflation and non oil output growth from the gulf cooperation council gcc countries to monetary policy shocks from the united states us were estimated to determine whether there is evidence to support the us dollar as the anchor for the proposed unified currency a structural vector autoregression identified with short run restrictions was employed for each country with fed funds rate as the us monetary policy instrument non oil output growth and inflation the main results suggest that for inflation the gcc countries show synchronised responses to monetary policy shocks from the us which are similar to inflation in the us and for non oil output growth there is no clear indication that us monetary policy can be as effective for the gcc countries as it is domestically consequently importing us monetary policy via a dollar peg may guarantee only stable inflation for the gcc countries not necessarily stable non oil output growth if the non oil output response is made conscientiously and there are concerns over the dollar s ability to perform its role as a store of value a basket peg with both the us dollar and the euro may be a sound alternative as confirmed by the variance decomposition analysis of our augmented svar with a proxy for the european short term interest rate

oil prices inflation and interest rates in a structural cointegrated var model for the g 7 countries sharp increases in the price of oil are generally seen as a major contributor to business cycle asymmetries moreover the very recent highs registered in the world oil market are causing concern about possible slowdowns in the economic performance of the most developed countries in this paper a structural cointegrated var model has been considered for the g 7 countries in order to study the direct effects of oil price shocks on output and prices and the reaction of monetary variables to external shocks our results can be summarized as follows i a stationary money demand as suggested by the classic theory of money can be identified for most countries ii according to the estimated coefficients of the structural part of the model for all countries except japan and u k the null hypothesis of an influence of oil prices on the inflation rate cannot be rejected inflation rate shocks are transmitted to the real economy by increasing interest rates iii impulse response analysis suggests for most countries the existence of an instantaneous temporary effect of oil price innovations on prices iv impulse response functions indicate different monetary policy reactions to inflationary and growth shocks v the simulation exercises directed to estimate the total impact of the 1990 oil price shock indicate that for some countries u s a significant part of the effects of the oil price shock is due to the monetary policy reaction function for other countries canada france and italy however the total impact is offset at least in part by an easing of monetary conditions

the dynamic eects of monetary policy a structural factor model approach we use the structural factor model proposed by forni giannone lippi and reichlin 2007 to study the eects of monetary policy the advantage with respect to the traditional vector autoregression model is that we can exploit information from a large data set made up of 112 us monthly macroeconomic series monetary policy shocks are identified using a standard recursive scheme in which the impact eects

another perspective on the effects of inflation uncertainty this paper examines the effects of inflation uncertainty on real economic activity by utilizing a flexible dynamic multivariate framework that accommodates possible interaction between the conditional means and variances the empirical model is based on a familiar identified vector autoregressive framework modified to accommodate multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity our empirical model is preferred to the baseline var by likelihood based information criteria and it retains the important dynamics of the underlying var we find that an average shock to inflation uncertainty has tended to reduce output growth over three months by about 22 basis points

formalising economics social change values mechanics and mathematics in economic discourse the mathematisation and formalisation of economic science has been one of the most important features of the development of economic science in the latter part of the twentieth century what were the causes behind this ubiquitous mathematisation of economic science recent scholarship places excessive emphasis on the role and prestige of mathematics as a scientific tool in this paper we argue this is inadequate not least because it fails to account for the whole classical era when mathematical economists failed to have any impact explaining this failure is one of the main aims of this paper most accounts focus mostly on the intellectual factors involved failing to do justice to what amounts to a multifaceted and complicated phenomenon involving social economic political intellectual normative and institutional factors partly redressing the balance by bringing to the fore the various factors involved is the other prime aim of this paper

the validity of the contingent valuation method perfect and regular embedding this article deals with one aspect of the validity claim of the contingent valuation method namely to what extent does the method produce different values in situations for which economic theory claims different values two aspects of this validity test perfect and regular embedding were tested in a field experiment comprising six samples of the dutch population perfect embedding occurs when the value for a specific good is similar to the value for a more inclusive good perfect embedding did not manifest itself in the experiment respondents considered a package of six goods as well as a package of two goods more valuable than one of these goods it is argued that this supportive evidence of the method s validity claim occurred because the goods involved were well defined regular embedding occurs when the same good receives a lower value if the value for it is inferred from the value for a more inclusive good rather than if that good is valued on its own regular embedding was only found when respondents were given the opportunity to value the inclusive good before valuing the specific good respondents who were given information on the inclusive good without valuing it did not state different values than respondents who were not given that information it seems that respondents perceive an inclusive good as being relevant to their valuation decision only when they are asked to value it further research is necessary to shed more light on the underlying processes that may account for this

what does the bank of japan do to east asia abstract in recent policy debates some have argued that expansionary monetary policy in japan can increase real output in japan and in japan s neighbors while others have warned that it is a beggar thy neighbor policy in this paper we estimate structural vector autoregressions to assess the effects of japanese monetary policy shocks we find that the effects of japanese monetary policy shocks on macroeconomic variation in east asia have been modest and difficult to reconcile with the beggar thy neighbor view we estimate that the asian crisis was preceded by expansionary monetary policy shocks in japan but we fail to find support for the view that these shocks contributed to the crisis

monetary policy and price responsiveness to aggregate shocks under rational inattention this paper presents a general equilibrium model that is consistent with recent empirical evidence showing that the u s price level and inflation are much more responsive to aggregate technology shocks than to monetary policy shocks the model of this paper builds on recent work by mackowiak and wiederholt 2009 who show that models of endogenous attention allocation deliver prices to be more responsive to more volatile shocks as everything else being equal firms pay relatively more attention to more volatile shocks in fact according to the u s data aggregate technology shocks are more volatile than monetary policy shocks inducing in this paper firms to pay more attention to the former than to the latter however most important this work adds to the literature by showing that the ability of the model of this paper to account for observed price dynamics crucially depends on monetary policy in particular this paper shows how interest rate feedback rules affect the incentives faced by firms in allocating attention a policy rate responding more actively to expected inflation and output fluctuations induces firms to pay relatively more attention to more volatile shocks this new mechanism of transmission of monetary policy helps rationalizing the observed behavior of prices in response to technology and monetary policy shocks and implies novel predictions about the impact of changes in taylor rules coefficients on economic fluctuations

dynamic effects of credit shocks in a data rich environment we examine the dynamic effects of credit shocks using a large dataset of u s economic and financial indicators in a structural factor model an identified credit shock resulting in an unanticipate

structural vector autoregressions checking identifying long run restrictions via heteroskedasticity long run restrictions have been used extensively for identify ing structural shocks in vector autoregressive var analysis such restric tions are typically just identifying but can be checked by utilizing changes in volatility this paper reviews and contrasts the volatility models that have been used for this purpose three main approaches have been used exoge nously generated changes in the unconditional residual covariance matrix changing volatility modelled by a markov switching mechanism and multi variate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity garch models using changes in volatility for checking long run identifying restric tions in structural var analysis is illustrated by reconsidering models for identifying fundamental components of stock prices

an alternative explanation of the price puzzle abstract this paper proposes an explanation for the frequent appearance of a price puzzle in vars designed for monetary policy analysis it assumes that the data are generated by a model in which output and output gap are not equivalent while an econometrician follows the common practice of including only output in the var the omission of the output gap is shown to spuriously produce a price puzzle and several other incorrect conclusions in a class of commonly used models this can happen even if the model admits a triangular identification and if the forecasts produced by the misspecified var are optimal when the model is tested on us data all predictions are supported a commodity price index is not needed to solve the puzzle

an adding up test on contingent valuations of river and lake quality for a contingent valuation cv study of a bundle of water quality improvements this paper tests whether the sum of the estimated willingness to pay wtp for each individual part of the package evaluated incrementally equals the estimated wtp for the entire bundle as implied by standard utility theory this is the first application of the adding up test using incremental parts and carson and groves s 2007 procedures to induce truthful respondents answers the test is failed which implies that either the cv method did not elicit truthful answers or that respondents true preferences are inconsistent with standard utility theory

stochastic volatility in a macro finance model of the u s term structure of interest rates 1961 2004 this paper generalizes the standard homoscedastic macro finance model by allowing for stochastic volatility using the square root specification of the mainstream finance literature empirically this specification dominates the standard model because it is consistent with the square root volatility found in macroeconomic time series thus it establishes an important connection between the stochastic volatility of the mainstream finance model and macro economic volatility of the okun friedman type this research opens the way to a richer specification of both macro economic and term structure models incorporating the best features of both macro finance and mainstream finance models

ordering effects in nested top down and bottom up contingent valuation designs abstract within a contingent valuation cv survey ordering effects are defined where responses to a given question vary in a theoretically unanticipated manner according to the positioning of that question relative to others in the survey instrument this paper employs a split sample cv design to investigate the potential for such ordering effects upon stated willingness to pay for nested goods in one top down design values are first elicited for protecting the whole of an endangered area after which values for a part sub area are elicited a second bottom up treatment reverses the order of valuation tasks with the part scheme valued prior to the whole results show that whole and part valuation responses are logically ordered and determined by a consistent set of factors irrespective of question order however variance to question order was observed in both the part and whole valuations the correspondence of these results to standard and non standard preference theories is explored and the difficulties and practical issues concerning valuing nested goods are highlighted

the price puzzle in the monetary transmission vars with long run restrictions abstract this study addresses the price puzzle a positive response of prices to monetary tightening in var models by using long run instead of the usual short run restrictions on the us data including output prices and interest rate we find that monetary tightening had a negative effect on prices

immigration and public finances in oecd countries abstract this paper shows that the macroeconomic and fiscal consequences of international migration are positive for oecd countries and suggests that international migration produces a demographic dividend by increasing the share of the workforce within the population the estimation of a structural vector autoregressive model on a panel of 19 oecd countries over the period 1980 2015 reveals that a migration shock increases gdp per capita through a positive effect on both the ratio of working age to total population and the employment rate international migration also improves the fiscal balance by reducing the per capita transfers paid by the government and per capita old age public spending to rationalize these findings an original theoretical framework is developed this framework highlights the roles of both the demographic structure and intergenerational public transfers and shows that migration is beneficial to host economies characterized by aging populations and large public sectors

monetary policy housing rents and inflation dynamics in this paper we study the effect of monetary policy shocks on housing rents our main finding is that in contrast to house prices housing rents increase in response to contractionary monetary policy shocks we also find that after a contractionary monetary policy shock rental vacancies and the homeownership rate decline this combination of results suggests that monetary policy may affect housing tenure decisions own versus rent in addition we show that with the exception of the shelter component all other main components of the consumer price index cpi either decline in response to a contractionary monetary policy shock or are not responsive these findings motivated us to study the statistical properties of alternative measures of inflation that exclude the shelter component we find that measures of inflation that exclude shelter have most of the statistical properties of the widely used measures of inflation such as the cpi and the price index for personal consumption expenditures but have higher standard deviations and react more to monetary policy shocks finally we show that the response of housing rents accounts for a large proportion of the price puzzle found in the literature

monetary shocks in the g 6 countries is there a puzzle les auteurs cherchent a clarifier la dynamique du mecanisme de transmission de la politique monetaire l identification des chocs de politique monetaire est au coeur de ce genre d analyse divers chercheurs ont reussi recemment a isoler de tels chocs en imposant des restrictions de suridentification a des modeles vectoriels autoregressifs var

the output composition puzzle a difference in the monetary transmission mechanism in the euro area and u s we revisit recent evidence on how monetary policy affects output and prices in the u s and in the euro area the response patterns to a shift in monetary policy are similar in most respects but differ noticeably as to the composition of output changes in the euro area investment is the predominant driver of output changes while in the u s consumption shifts are significantly more important we dub this difference the output composition puzzle and explore its implications and several potential explanations for it while the evidence seems to point at differences in consumption responses rather than investment as the proximate cause for this fact the source of the consumption difference remains a puzzle

some empirical evidence on the effects of shocks to monetary policy on exchange rates this paper investigates the effects of shocks to u s monetary policy on exchange rates we consider three measures of these shocks orthogonalized shocks to the federal funds rate orthogonalized shocks to the ratio of nonborrowed to total reserves and changes in the romer and romer index of monetary policy in sharp contrast to the literature we find substantial evidence of a link between monetary policy and exchange rates specifically according to our results a contractionary shock to u s monetary policy leads to i persistent significant appreciations in u s nominal and real exchange rates and ii significant persistent deviations from uncovered interest rate parity in favor of u s interest rates

potential information and target variables for uk monetary policy the relationship between traditional monetary policy goal variables nominal gdp real gpd and the inflation rate and a number of financial market variables is investigated the question examined is which if any of these financial market variables monetary aggregates interest rates and interest rate spreads are potentially useful as either information variables or intermediate targets while the implications concerning the usefulness of the financial variables considered are pessimistic concerning nominal gdp more robust relationships are found for real gdp and inflation the latter finding is of interest given the current uk monetary policy strategy of inflation targeting our results are however more supportive of the usefulness of several financial variables as information variables than as intermediate targets

mexico s balance of payments crisis a chronicle of a death foretold this paper claims that the roots of mexico s balance of payments crisis are found in the prevailing high degree of capital mobility and financial globalization under these circumstances shifts in foreign capital flows and anticipation of a banking system bailout may produce large imbalances between stocks of financial assets and foreign reserves threatening the sustainability of currency pegs econometric analysis suggests that half of mexico s reserve losses could be accounted for by these phenomena large financial imbalances are also fertile ground for self fulfilling prophesy crises which lead devaluations to produce deep recessions these difficulties can be partly remedied by appropriate policies

narrative and var approaches to monetary policy common identification problems abstract romer and romer romer c d romer d h 1989 does monetary policy matter a new test in the spirit of friedman and schwartz in blanchard o j fischer s eds nber macroeconomics annual 1989 mit press cambridge ma pp 121 170 romer c d romer d h 1994 monetary policy matters journal of monetary economics 34 75 88 adopted a narrative approach to address the identification problems in time series models of monetary policy based on federal reserve documents the romers created a dummy variable equal to one in periods when the federal reserve contracted in response to perceived inflationary pressures this paper shows 1 the dummy variable is predictable from past macroeconomic variables reflecting the endogenous response of policy to the economy 2 unpredictable changes in the dummy do not generate dynamic responses that look like the effects of monetary policy the identification problems that plague time series models also afflict the narrative approach

what caused the early millennium slowdown evidence based on vector autoregressions this paper uses a simple var for the usa and euro area to analyse the underlying shocks of the early millennium slowdown i e supply demand monetary policy and oil price shocks the results of two identification strategies are compared one is based on traditional zero restrictions and as an alternative an identification scheme based on more recent sign restrictions is proposed the main conclusion is that the recent slowdown is caused by a combination of several shocks negative aggregate supply and aggregate spending shocks the increase of oil prices in 1999 and restrictive monetary policy in 2000 these shocks are more pronounced in the usa than the euro area the results are somewhat different depending on the identification strategy it is illustrated that traditional zero restrictions can have an influence on the estimated impact of certain shocks copyright 2005 john wiley sons ltd

search for a monetary propagation mechanism abstract this paper examines a monetary propagation mechanism in an economy where exchanges in goods and labor markets involve costly search it is shown that an increase in the money growth rate increases steady state employment and output when the money growth rate is low but reduces steady state employment and output when the money growth rate is already high the model produces persistent hump shaped responses in employment and output to money growth shocks even when the shocks have no persistence the model also generates desirable features in job vacancy sales inventory and the velocity of money all these features emerge here in an economy with perfectly flexible prices and wages journal of economic literatureclassification numbers e40 e30

ricardo was right ricardo added a chapter on machinery to the third and last edition of his principles in it he contended that invention of machinery could reduce i the demand for labor ii wages and iii national income this paper is devoted to the analytical questions of whether ricardo was right that viable invention can reduce the total of real output after all competitive prices adjust to clear all markets and why so many mainstream economists doubt ricardo after a defense of ricardo s analysis the political and ideological aspects of the historical discussions are evaluated mathematical proofs are provided in an appendix

models and their uses it is argued that economists ought to recognize that modeling in different styles will be appropriate for different purposes or different stages in the development of an area of economics as an example the paper displays simulations of a stochastic general equilibrium model which shed light on the interpretation of widely discussed small macroeconomic vector autoregressive models connecting monetary variables to output and prices this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

sequencing and nesting in contingent valuation surveys abstract the term embedding is ill defined and has been applied to distinct phenomena some predicted by economic theory and others not this paper lays out a theoretical framework for looking at these phenomena and provides a set of well defined terms included is a discussion of survey design problems which may induce spurious evidence in favor of the hypothesis that respondents are insensitive to the scope of the good being valued an empirical example of the component sensitivity is provided this test rejects the hypothesis that respondents are insensitive to the scope of the good being valued

exchange rate stabilization in the erm identifying european monetary policy reactions abstract we develop the structural var models for european countries france denmark and germany during the erm period to examine the monetary policy reactions especially the within erm exchange rate stabilization in addition to analyzing the impulse responses and variance decomposition we present the full monetary reaction function in an interpretable manner without introducing additional assumptions the results suggest some asymmetry in exchange rate stabilization non german exchange rate stabilization is stronger than german exchange rate stabilization but do not support the hypothesis that german monetary policy was independent of the erm

adequate responsiveness to scope in contingent valuation the standard test for scope sensitivity in contingent valuation studies determines whether the response to changes in scope is statistically significant it does not address whether the magnitude of response is appropriate given the specified changes in scope we examine contingent valuation studies that implemented scope tests to determine what they imply about the adequacy of response to scope we find that in the vast majority of studies the magnitude of response cannot be assessed only three studies permit such an assessment samples and hollyer 1990 diamond et al 1993 and chapman et al 2009 the first two papers find that responses to their surveys did not vary adequately with scope the third study passed the standard scope test but we show that the magnitude of response in this study is inadequate by straightforward methods of assessment and cannot be explained by diminishing marginal utility or substitution more research is needed on this issue including wider application of adding up tests on incremental parts as well as the development of other methods that permit an assessment of the magnitude of response or other tests of rationality

indeterminacy change points and the price puzzle in an estimated dsge model abstract we extend lubik and schorfheide s 2004 testing for indeterminacy an application to u s monetary policy american economic review 94 190 217 likelihood based estimation of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium dsge models under indeterminacy to encompass a sample period the includes both determinacy and indeterminacy by implementing a change point methodology chib s 1998 estimation and comparison of multiple change point models journal of econometrics 86 221 241 by letting the data provide estimates of the dates of the determinacy regimes and allowing the estimates of structural parameters to be the same across regimes we obtain more precise estimates of the differences in characteristics such as the impulse responses across the regimes the most striking finding about the indeterminacy regime which is estimated to coincide with the great inflation of the 1970s is that it exhibits the price puzzle in that the inflation rate rises immediately and in a sustained manner following a positive interest rate shock thus the price puzzle might have been a genuine phenomenon under indeterminacy rather than a false finding to be excised through specification search and parameter restrictions

determinants of the long term yield in canada an open economy var approach this study analyses the economic determinants of short and long term interest rates in canada using a structural vector autoregressive var model the var takes into consideration that canadian financial markets are small and open relative to those in the usa and that canada is a relatively large exporter of commodities in part the empirical results for canada are similar to those for the usa aggregate demand shocks have relatively large and persistent effects on long term yields while aggregate supply shocks do not have significant effects however monetary policy shocks in canada are found to have larger and more persistent effects on long term yields than those found for the usa the most striking result is that movements in us monetary policy have relatively large significant and persistent effects on canadian long term bond yields furthermore us monetary policy disturbances can account for the overall trend in long term yields in canada

contextual political economy not whig economics the paper has three objectives first it seeks to resuscitate a methodology of the history of economic thought that takes account of the problem solving efforts of political economists rather than concentrating entirely on the putative advances in techniques of analysis detaching them from their political and social context second it seeks to establish the priority of two italian savants in theorising some basic features of capitalist growth long before its prime movers had been conceptualised in the eighteenth century third it puts colonialism and imperialism as the ever present components of capitalist development on centre stage contextual political economy would be a study of the capitalist system as it has really operated i e as a system characterised by enormous turbulence superimposed on growth in which formal and informal colonialism and speculation have played major roles

what do the vars mean measuring the output effects of monetary policy abstract vars describe the history of output and other variables following monetary shocks to measure the effects of monetary shocks one must add economic identifying assumptions i specify the relative effects of anticipated and unanticipated money and i calculate how var based measures of the effect of money on output change as one varies this assumption the anticipated unanticipated assumption influences measured output effects as much or more than the variable selection and shock orthogonalization assumptions on which the var literature focuses assuming that anticipated monetary policy can have some effect on output results in much shorter smaller and perhaps more believable estimates of the output response to monetary shocks

has monetary policy become more effective we investigate the implications of changes in the structure of the u s economy for monetary policy effectiveness estimating a vector autoregression over the pre and post 1980 periods we provide evidence of a reduced effect of monetary policy shocks in the latter period we estimate a structural model that replicates well the economy s response in both periods and perform counterfactual experiments to determine the source of the change in the monetary transmission mechanism and in the economy s volatility we find that by responding more strongly to inflation expectations monetary policy has stabilized the economy more effectively in the post 1980 period

monetary policy shocks and foreign investment income evidence from a large bayesian var abstract this paper assesses the transmission of monetary policy in a large bayesian vector autoregression based on the approach proposed by banbura et al 2010 the paper analyzes the impact of monetary policy shocks in the united states and canada not only on a range of domestic aggregates trade flows and exchange rates but also foreign investment income the analysis provides three main results first a surprise monetary policy contraction has a statistically important impact on both gross and net foreign investment income flows in both countries against the background of growing foreign wealth and investment income this result provides preliminary evidence that foreign balance sheet channels might play an increasingly significant role for monetary transmission second the impact of monetary policy on foreign investment income flows differs considerably across asset categories and over time suggesting that the investment instruments and the currency denomination of a country s foreign assets and liabilities are potentially relevant for the way in which monetary policy affects the domestic economy finally the results support existing evidence on the effectiveness of large vector autoregressions and the bayesian shrinkage approach in eliminating price and exchange rate puzzles

solving the price puzzle with an alternative indicator of monetary policy we identify the effects of monetary policy shocks on macroeconomic variables in vars using the divisia m4 measure of money as the policy indicator variable we obtain theoretically sensible responses whether or not a commodity price index is included thus we eliminate the well known empirical puzzles from the var by a novel choice in a policy variable rather than the usual attachment of an ad hoc variable

effects of different descriptions of the ecological good on willingness to pay values abstract the contingent valuation cv method is a survey based method that is used to put a price on ecological goods due to its hypothetical character the validity of the cv method forms part of an ongoing debate this article deals with one aspect of this validity viz the proper description of the ecological good of interest the question is whether and if so to what extent different descriptions meant as representations of the same good influence respondents willingness to pay wtp do different descriptions of the ecological good result in the same representation of that good or will these descriptions result in different images of the good and consequently in different values if the latter occurs a validity problem arises a field experiment was conducted to study the effects of three descriptions of the good a clean environment around the year 2015 the results of this experiment show that rather large differences in the description of this good have a significant effect on wtp values as well as on the number of protest bidders smaller differences in the description however do not show such an effect it seems as if certain information thresholds have to be overcome in order to affect wtp values

a long run structural macroeconometric model of the uk a new modelling strategy that provides a practical approach to incorporating long run structural relationships suggested by economic theory in an otherwise unrestricted var model is applied to construct a small quarterly macroeconometric model of the uk estimated over 1965q1 1999q4 in nine variables domestic and foreign outputs prices and interest rates oil prices the nominal effective exchange rate and real money balances the aim is to develop a model with a transparent and theoretically coherent foundation tests of restrictions on the long run relations of the model are presented the dynamic properties of the model are discussed and monetary policy shocks identified

disentangling demand and supply shocks in the crude oil market how to check sign restrictions in structural vars given the growing dissatisfaction with exclusion and long run restrictions in structural vector autoregressive analysis sign restrictions are becoming increasingly popular so far there are no techniques for validating the shocks identied via such restrictions although in an ideal setting the sign restrictions specify shocks of interest sign restrictions may be invali dated by measurement errors data adjustments or omitted variables we model changes in the volatility of the shocks via a markov switching ms mechanism and use this devise to give the data a chance to object to sign restrictions the approach is illustrated by considering a small model for the market of crude oil

the federal funds rate and the channels of monetary transmission the authors show that the interest rate on federal funds is extremely informative about future movements of real macroeconomic variables then they argue that the reason for this forecasting success is that the funds rate sensitively records shocks to the supply of bank reserves that is the funds rate is a good indicator of monetary policy actions finally using innovations to the funds rate as a measure of changes in policy the authors present evidence consistent with the view that monetary policy works at least in part through credit i e bank loans as well as through money i e bank deposits copyright 1992 by american economic association

arbitrary values good causes and premature verdicts abstract this paper offers an alternative interpretation of the conclusions kahneman and knetsch propose based on two contingent valuation cvm surveys the evaluation argues that while framing is important to cvm estimates the design implementation and empirical findings reported from these surveys do not support their judgments moreover with the exception of temporal embedding conventional economic descriptions of individual behavior can explain the response patterns that they suggest are at variance with standard value theory

alternative maximum likelihood estimation of structural vector autoregressive models partially identified with short run restrictions this paper presents an alternative maximum likelihood estimation method for partially identified vector autoregressive models this method might be especially useful to handle very large systems of variables by reducing the dimension of the likelihood space as an application we consider an open economy model to investigate the effects of monetary policy on exchange rates and term structures we find that exchange rates tend to overshoot and term structures have hump shaped responses to monetary policy shocks

raise rates to raise inflation neo fisherianism in the new keynesian model increasing the inflation target in a new keynesian nk model may require increasing rather than decreasing the nominal interest rate in the short run we refer to this positive short run comovement between the nominal rates and inflation conditional on a nominal shock as neo fisherianism we show that the nk model is more likely to be neo fisherian the more persistent is the change in the inflation target and the more flexible are prices neo fisherianism is driven by the forward looking nature of the model modifications that make the framework less forward looking make it less likely for the model to exhibit neo fisherianism

monetary policy and investment dynamics evidence from disaggregate data we use disaggregated data on the components of private fixed investment pfi to estimate industry level responses of real investment and capital prices to unanticipated monetary policy the response functions derive from a restricted large scale var estimated over 1959 2007 our results point to significant cross sector heterogeneity in the behavior of pfi prices and quantities for assets belonging to the equipment category of fixed investment we find that quantities rather than prices absorb most of the fallout from a policy shock by contrast the price effects tend to be higher and the output effects lower for nonresidential structures

the identification of monetary policy disturbances explaining the liquidity puzzle abstract this paper examines recent work on the identification of monetary policy disturbances its main finding is that the empirical anomalies found in the literature reflect a failure to properly address the federal reserve s policy of accommodating reserve demand shocks a new method of identifying monetary policy using nonborrowed reserves is proposed using this specification policy has a strong persistent liquidity effect regardless of subsample policy granger causes output even in the presence of interest rates explaining approximately 49 of the variance in output at a two year horizon and the residual explanatory power of interest rates for output is negligible

competition in banking and the lending channel evidence from bank level data in asia and latin america abstract this paper examines how banking competition affects the transmission of monetary policy through the bank lending channel we apply a two step estimation procedure using bank level panel data for commercial banks in 10 asian and 10 latin american countries during the period from 1996 to 2006 in the first step we measure the degree of banking competition by applying the methodology proposed by panzar and rosse 1987 in the second step we estimate a loan growth equation where the explanatory variables include the panzar rosse measure of banking competition the estimation results provide consistent evidence that increased competition in the banking sector weakens the transmission of monetary policy through the bank lending channel this is especially true for banks in latin american countries and banks of small size low liquidity and low capitalization we also discuss the policy implications of the main findings of this paper

the effects of monetary policy using structural factor analysis the traditional vector autoregression var method is widely used to trace out the effects of monetary policy innovations on the economy however this method suffers from the curse of dimensionality so that in practice vars are estimated on a limited number of variables leading to a potential missing information problem in this article we use the method of structural factor analysis to evaluate the effects of monetary policy on key macroeconomic variables in a data rich environment this methodology allows us to extract information on monetary policy and its impact on the economy from a much larger data set than is possible with the traditional var method we propose two structural factor models one is the structural factor augmented vector autoregressive sfavar model and the other is the structural factor vector autoregressive sfvar model compared to the traditional var both models incorporate information from hundreds of data series series that can be and are monitored by the central bank in

the euro area bond free float and the implications for qe this paper examines how shocks to government bond duration risk held by price sensitive investors affect the euro area term structure of interest rates and the wider macroeconomy we construct a new measure of the bond free float which adjusts total debt for foreign official holdings and weights by residual maturity using a small macrofinance bayesian vector autoregression var model we estimate that the first round of asset purchases under the european central bank s ecb public sector purchase program reduced euro area 10 year bond yields by around 30 bps in 2015 the positive impact on the output gap and inflation in 2016 was about 0 2 and 0 3 ppt respectively

valuing public goods with the contingent valuation method a critique of kahneman and knetsch the social stakes in the use and abuse of the contingent valuation method cvm are very high recent developments in environmental law have elevated the cvm to the status of a refutable presumption in cases brought under certain statutes it is no longer adequate for economists to sniff at the continued popularity of the cvm in such cases it is instead incumbent on economists to come to some conclusions as to the domain under which the cvm may or may not be correctly applied one should not expect a simple thumbs up or thumbs down assessment in this matter such an expectation would be naive with respect to the inherent complexity of the issue not to mention the financial incentives that expert witnesses might have to breed as if controversy in an adversarial legal system in this context the strong admonitions of kahneman and knetsch 3 kk against the casual use of the cvm must be carefully examined they present what they believe to be evidence to support the claim that the cvm suffers from an embedding effect and that any reported willingness to pay wtp is best interpreted as the purchase of moral satisfaction rather than as a measure of the value associated with a particular public good i argue that their evidence is insufficient to test the implied hypotheses that it is incorrectly reported and that it is in large measure fully consistent with received economic theory

commodity price volatility with endogenous natural resources abstract natural resource reserves are exogenous in models of small commodity exporters changes in the stock of reserves play no role in the macroeconomy including in business cycle volatility trade dynamics or exchange rate volatility we consider richer supply dynamics and model exploration and depletion we show that an endogenous supply of reserves is important for capturing the stylised facts associated with commodity price shocks including a commodity currency the crowding out of non commodity activity dutch disease and a volatile business cycle we also consider how exploration and depletion affect the ranking of optimal monetary and taxation policies when natural resource reserves are held fixed monetary policy is an efficient tool for stabilising the effects of commodity price shocks however when exploration and depletion are accounted for using interest rates to stabilise the effects of commodity price changes becomes inefficient using taxes on the resource sector specifically an ad valorem royalty remains efficient

nonlinearities and price puzzle in brazil what is called a price puzzle is a positive and persistent response of ination to a unit shock in the interest rate s innovation using a var to analyse monetary policy in brazil this paper comes to the conclusion that when nonlinearities in the data were considered most of this e ect vanishes this is done rstly by checking if the series are unit root processes or nonlinear trend stationary after that a nonparametric co trending analysis was applied the test result favored a common nonlinear trend between ination and the interest rate which seems to a ect the system innovation analysis inducing most of the price puzzle e ect

do exchange rate shocks have asymmetric effects on reserve accumulation evidence from emerging markets it is generally argued that central banks in emerging market countries motivated by a desire to defend export competitiveness tend to intervene in foreign exchange markets to limit currency appreciations rather than depreciations using panel data from 13 emerging market countries for the period 1998 m1 to 2016 m12 we find that exchange rate shocks play an important role in determining the accumulation of international reserves moreover we find evidence that central banks in emerging markets tend to follow a leaning against the depreciation wind policy rather than the appreciation wind i e we provide evidence of a fear of depreciation

an estimated canadian dsge model with nominal and real rigidities this paper develops a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium dgse model for the canadian economy and evaluates the real effects of monetary policy shocks to generate high and persistent real effects the model combines nominal frictions in the form of costly price adjustment with real rigidities modelled as convex costs of adjusting capital and employment

the credit effects of monetary policy evidence using loan commitments in addition to the usual channels monetary policy may affect spending by changing the supply of bank loans and the creditworthiness of borrowers this paper tests for these credit effects using a contractual difference across commercial bank loans the author finds that bank loans not made under a commitment slow after tight policy while loans under commitment accelerate or are unchanged this divergence coincides with reports of tighter credit by lenders and by small firms suggesting the divergence reflects a reduction in the supply of credit to the firms without commitments rather than a reduction in their demand for loans

interest rates and the channels of monetary transmission some sectoral estimates abstract we estimate a small sectoral var model of the uk macroeconomy this model is then used to simulate the effects of an exogenous monetary policy shock upon asset prices bank balance sheet variables and final target variables activity and prices for the personal and corporate sectors significant sectoral differences are found among the channels of monetary transmission in addition the use of sectoral data facilitates the identification of distinct money and credit channels in the transmission of monetary policy these results contrast with the ambiguous findings on the roles of money and credit in the literature to date

intermediate monetary targets and macroeconomic fluctuations it is investigated whether the choice of intermediate target has altered macroeconomic fluctuations and whether the observed changes are consistent with predictions from economic theory since implications from the theoretical literature focus on the effects of structural disturbances an empirical analysis must identify these effects the structural vector autoregressive var technique estimates structural disturbances using restrictions from standard macroeconomic theory based on descriptions of actual targeting procedures by insiders to federal reserve policy decisions the intermediate target for the united states is identified as the interest rate from 1951 to 1969 and money from 1970 to 1986 var models are estimated over each subsample to assess whether the estimated structural disturbances cause endogenous variables to behave as economic theory predicts tests are also performed to assess whether or not the targeting rule affects the variance of endogenous variables attributable to structural sh

signalling effects of monetary policy we develop a dynamic general equilibrium model in which the policy rate signals the central bank s view about macroeconomic developments to price setters the model is estimated with likelihood methods on a u s data set that includes the survey of professional forecasters as a measure of price setters inflation expectations this model improves upon existing perfect information models in explaining why in the data inflation expectations respond with delays to monetary impulses and remain disanchored for years in the 1970s u s monetary policy is found to signal persistent inflationary shocks explaining why inflation and inflation expectations were so persistently heightened the signalling effects of monetary policy also explain why inflation expectations adjusted more sluggishly than inflation after the robust monetary tightening of the 1980s

bayesian inference for structural vector autoregressions identified by markov switching heteroskedasticity abstract in this study bayesian inference is developed for structural vector autoregressive models in which the structural parameters are identified via markov switching heteroskedasticity in such a model restrictions that are just identifying in the homoskedastic case become over identifying and can be tested a set of parametric restrictions is derived under which the structural matrix is globally or partially identified and a savage dickey density ratio is used to assess the validity of the identification conditions the latter is facilitated by analytical derivations that make the computations feasible and numerical standard errors small as an empirical example monetary models are compared using heteroskedasticity as an additional device for identification the empirical results support an identified interest rate reaction function with money

the effect of monetary policy shocks on macroeconomic variables evidence from the eurozone this paper investigates how european central bank ecb monetary policy shocks impact industrial production output and inflation prices i gather a novel dataset of macroeconomic forecasts and using a narrative approach i construct a new measure of monetary policy shocks industrial production responds to an unpredictable positive monetary policy shock of 100 basis points with a decline of over 0 5 on the contrary inflation responds weakly with a very modest decrease of 0 05

house prices and stock prices different roles in the us monetary transmission mechanism we analyze the role of house prices and stock prices in the monetary policy transmission mechanism in the us using a structural vector autoregressive model if we allow the interest rate and asset prices to react simultaneously to news we find different roles for house prices and stock prices in the monetary transmission mechanism following a contractionary monetary policy shock stock prices fall immediately while the response in house prices is more gradual regarding the systematic response in monetary policy stock prices play a more important role than house prices as a consequence house prices contribute more than stock prices to fluctuations in gross domestic product and inflation