the inflation tax in a real business cycle model money is incorporated into a real business cycle model using a cash in advance constraint the model economy is used to analyze whether the business cycle is different in high inflation and low inflation economies and to analyze the impact of variability in the growth rate of money in addition the welfare cost of the inflation tax is measured and the steady state properties of high and low inflation economies are compared

optimal dynamic pricing of inventories with stochastic demand over finite horizons in many industries managers face the problem of selling a given stock of items by a deadline we investigate the problem of dynamically pricing such inventories when demand is price sensitive and stochastic and the firm s objective is to maximize expected revenues examples that fit this framework include retailers selling fashion and seasonal goods and the travel and leisure industry which markets space such as seats on airline flights cabins on vacation cruises and rooms in hotels that become worthless if not sold by a specific time we formulate this problem using intensity control and obtain structural monotonicity results for the optimal intensity resp price as a function of the stock level and the length of the horizon for a particular exponential family of demand functions we find the optimal pricing policy in closed form for general demand functions we find an upper bound on the expected revenue based on analyzing the deterministic version of the problem and use this bound to prove that simple fixed price policies are asymptotically optimal as the volume of expected sales tends to infinity finally we extend our results to the case where demand is compound poisson only a finite number of prices is allowed the demand rate is time varying holding costs are incurred and cash flows are discounted the initial stock is a decision variable and reordering overbooking and random cancellations are allowed

perishable inventory theory a review this paper reviews the relevant literature on the problem of determining suitable ordering policies for both fixed life perishable inventory and inventory subject to continuous exponential decay we consider both deterministic and stochastic demand for single and multiple products both optimal and sub optimal order policies are discussed in addition a brief review of the application of these models to blood bank management is included the review concludes with a discussion of some of the interesting open research questions in the area

modeling global spillover of new product takeoff abstract this article examines the global spillover of foreign product introductions and takeoffs on a focal country s time to takeoff using a novel data set of penetration data for eight high tech products across 55 countries it shows how foreign clout the susceptibility to foreign influences and intercountry distances affect global spillover patterns the authors find that foreign takeoffs but not foreign introductions accelerate a focal country s time to takeoff the larger the country the higher its economic wealth and the more it exports the more clout it has in the global spillover process in contrast the poorer the country the more tourists it receives and the higher its population density the more susceptible it is to global spillover effects cross country spillover effects are stronger the closer the countries are to one another both geographically and economically but not necessarily in terms of culture the model the authors develop also quantifies the spillover between each co

zooming in self emergence of movements in new product growth in this paper we propose an individual level approach to diffusion and growth models by zooming in we refer to the unit of analysis which is a single consumer instead of segments or markets and the use of granular sales data daily instead of smoothed e g annual data as is more commonly used in the literature by analyzing the high volatility of daily data we show how changes in sales patterns can self emerge as a direct consequence of the stochastic nature of the process our contention is that the fluctuations observed in more granular data are not noise but rather consist of accurate measurement and contain valuable information by stepping into the noise like data and treating it as information we generated better short term predictions even at very early stages of the penetration process using a kalman filter based tracker we demonstrate how movements can be traced and how predictions can be significantly improved we propose that for such tasks daily data with high volatility offer more insights than do smoothed annual data

the international penetration of ibusiness firms network effects liabilities of outsidership and country clout the burgeoning of ibusiness firms in the modern digital economy challenges the received internationalization theory given that ibusinesses such as social networking sites create value by providing a digital platform for users to interact with one another we employ a user network perspective and externalization logic suggesting that ibusinesses internationalization process depends critically on users collective interactions instead of being solely driven by firms market commitments as noted by the uppsala model however ibusinesses may suffer from liabilities of outsidership due to the boundedness of international network effects drawing on social network theory we demonstrate that such liabilities can be mitigated by first diffusing the ibusiness platform in countries with higher clout our analysis using a unique dataset of mobile ibusiness platforms finds empirical support for the hypotheses we discuss theoretical implications for the network approach of the uppsala model in the digital era

interest rates and currency prices in a two country world abstract this paper is a theoretical study of the determination of prices interest rates and currency exchange rates set in an infinitely lived two country world which is subject both to stochastic endowment shocks and to monetary instability formulas are obtained for pricing all equity claims nominally denominated bonds and currencies and these formulas are related to earlier closely related results in the theories of money finance international trade

foreign direct investment and inflation author affiliation selin sayek department of economics bilkent university bilkent ankara 06800 turkey e mail sayek bilkent edu tr acknowledgment i am very grateful to my advisor kent kimbrough for his support and help without which this research wouldn t have been possible i would also like to thank robert conrad enrique mendoza ed tower and dennis yang for their guidance and helpful comments i have also received valuable comments from duke university macroeconomics workshop participants and royal economic society 2001 conference participants as well as the two referees all errors remain mine 1 introductionin recent years interest in understanding the determinants of foreign direct investment fdi has intensified hand in hand with an increasing volume of fdi flows from 1990 to 2005 the total worldwide fdi inflows increased from 203 billion to 974 billion almost all developing countries are competing to attract a major share of these inflows in fact the share of net fdi inflows in the gross domestic product gdp of middle income countries has risen from 0 74 in the 1970s to 1 08 between 1985 and 1994 and to 2 85 between 1995 and 2005 1 the intensified competition to attract more fdi has led to changes in the regulatory frameworks provided by almost all countries according to the recent world investment report unctad 2003 during the period 1991 2002 around 95 of the changes in worldwide laws governing fdi have been favorable to multinational firm activity establishment of investment promotion agencies as well as provision of fiscal incentives have accompanied these improvements in local regulatory environments given the objectives of host countries to attract high quality investments and to ensure benefits from such foreign activity it is important to fully understand the factors influencing the fdi flows this article primarily studies the role of inflation among the factors that drive fdi inflation rates have increased from around 5 to 10 on average in developing countries during the 1970s followed by an increase of 49 on average among developing countries between 1985 and 1994 this trend of increasing inflation rates has been reversed in the late 1990s the inflation rates in developing countries have on average declined to 9 2 during 1995 2004 a period during which the net fdi inflows as a share of gdp have more than doubled in the middle income countries given the focus among developing countries to attract more fdi it is interesting to analyze whether the increasing inflation rates in the 1970s and 1980s might have been a deterrent for fdi inflows and whether their reversal in the 1990s might have contributed to the increase in fdi inflows to these economies despite not providing conclusive evidence the coincidences of high inflation and low fdi versus the low inflation and high fdi inflows into these developing countries motivates investigation of the possible links between the two variables therefore the broad objective of this framework is to study the effects of inflation on the investment decision of multinational enterprises mnes changes in inflation rates of the domestic or foreign country are anticipated to alter the net returns and optimal investment decisions of the mne in studying the explicit role of inflation in determining the investment pattern of mnes across domestic and foreign locations i use a model that is in fact discussing an investment smoothing behavior of the mne that faces domestic and foreign nominal shocks in this framework the act of investment smoothing captures a shift of investments across locations and not across time my argument is in line with aizenman 1992 who notes that the goal of diversifying exposure to country specific shocks induces producers to become multinationals this investment smoothing behavior can further be thought of as a production flexibility approach where the mne can shift production and trade decisions depending on the relative favorability of conditions in the two countries as discussed in sung and lapan 2000

a bayesian model to forecast new product performance in domestic and international markets this paper attempts to shed light on the following research questions when a firm introduces a new product or service how can it effectively use the different information sources available to generate reliable new product performance forecasts how can the firm account for varying information availability at different stages of the new product launch and generate forecasts at each stage we address these questions in the context of the sequential launches of motion pictures in international markets players in the motion picture industry require forecasts at different stages of the movie launch process to aid decision making and the information sets available to generate such forecasts vary at different stages despite the importance of such forecasts the industry struggles to understand and predict sales of new movies in domestic and overseas markets we develop a bayesian modeling framework that predicts first week viewership for new movies in both domestic and several international markets we focus on the first week because industry players involved in international markets studios distributors and exhibitors are most interested in these predictions we draw on existing literature on forecasting performance of new movies to formulate our model specifically we model the number of viewers of a movie in a given week using a poisson count data model the number of screens distribution strategy movie attributes such as genre and presence absence of stars are among the factors modeled to influence viewership we employ a hierarchical bayes formulation of the poisson model that allows the determinants of viewership to vary across countries we adopt the bayesian approach for two reasons first it provides a convenient framework to model varying assumptions of information availability specifically it allows us to make forecasts by combining different sources of information such as domestic and international market specific data second this methodology provides us with the entire distribution of the new movie s performance forecast such a predictive distribution is more informative than a point estimate and provides a measure of the uncertainty in the forecasts we propose a bayesian prediction procedure that provides viewership forecasts at different stages of the new movie release process the methodology provides forecasts under a number of information availability scenarios thus forecasts can be obtained with just information from a historical database containing data on previous new product launches in several international markets as more information becomes available the forecasting methodology allows us to combine historical information with data on the performance of the new product in the domestic market and thereby to make forecasts with less uncertainty and greater accuracy our results indicate that for all the countries in the data set the number of screens on which a movie is released is the most important influence on viewership furthermore we find that local distribution improves movie sales internationally in contrast to the domestic market we also find evidence of similar genre preferences in geographically disparate countries we find that the proposed model provides accurate forecasts at the movie country level further the model outperforms all the extant models in the marketing literature that could potentially be used for making these forecasts a comparison of root mean square and mean absolute errors for movies in a hold out sample shows that the model that combines information available from the different sources generates the lowest errors a bayesian predictive model selection criterion corroborates the superior performance of this model we demonstrate that the bayesian model can be combined with industry rules of thumb to generate cumulative box office forecasts in summary this research demonstrates a bayesian modeling framework that allows the use of different information sources to make new product forecasts in domestic and international markets our results underscore the theme that each movie is unique as is each country and viewership results from an interaction of the product and the market hence the motion picture industry should use both product specific and market specific information to make new movie performance forecasts

efficient inventory control for imperfect quality items in this paper we present a general eoq model for items that are subject to inspection for imperfect quality each lot that is delivered to the sorting facility undertakes a 100 per cent screening and the percentage of defective items per lot reduces according to a learning curve the generality of the model is viewed as important both from an academic and practitioner perspective the mathematical formulation considers arbitrary functions of time that allow the decision maker to assess the consequences of a diverse range of strategies by employing a single inventory model a rigorous methodology is utilised to show that the solution is a unique and global optimal and a general step by step solution procedure is presented for continuous intra cycle periodic review applications the value of the temperature history and flow time through the supply chain is also used to determine an efficient policy furthermore coordination mechanisms that may affect the supplier and the retailer are explored to improve inventory control at both echelons the paper provides illustrative examples that demonstrate the application of the theoretical model in different settings and lead to the generation of interesting managerial insights

an order level lot size inventory model with inventory level dependent demand and deterioration abstract many inventory models have been developed for various deteriorating items with constant demand rate it is a common experience that for perishable consumer goods the age of inventory has a negative impact on the demand due to the loss of consumer confidence on such product consumers tend to keep off perishable items which have reached closer to their expiry dates this paper describes an inventory model in which the demand is considered as a composite function consisting of a constant component and a variable component which is proportional to the inventory level in the periods when there is a positive inventory buildup the rate of production is considered finite and the decay rate as exponential the total cost function is composed of four cost components of all phases of the cycle backorder replenishment inventory buildup inventory depletion and shortage this cost function is later reduced to a two variable function using boundary relations to determine iteratively the set of values of the variables that resulted in minimum cost per cycle the optimum lot size and order level were then obtained with relations established previously results are demonstrated for an instance of the model

simulation study of the price differentiation effect in a stochastic deteriorating inventory with heterogeneous consumers freshness sensitivity a fixed price policy regardless of expiration date may result in unsold inventory and sales loss price reduction over time as the expiration date approaches motivates customers to purchase all items including the ones that are left with only a short interval until their expiration we conduct a discrete event simulation that captures the main characteristics of this phenomenon results show that a moderate differentiation of price increases profits by 6 a larger differentiation reduces profits profits are the highest for freshness oriented customers a fixed price policy is preferred in an environment of large variance and expected near term expirations

a new product growth for model consumer durables this article originally appeared in management science january 1969 volume 15 number 5 pp 215 227 published by the institute of management sciences a growth model for the timing of initial purchase of new products is developed and tested empirically against data for eleven consumer durables the basic assumption of the model is that the timing of a consumer s initial purchase is related to the number of previous buyers a behavioral rationale for the model is offered in terms of innovative and imitative behavior the model yields good predictions of the sales peak and the timing of the peak when applied to historical data a long range forecast is developed for the sales of color television sets

inventory models with inventory level dependent demand a comprehensive review and unifying theory marketing researchers and practitioners have long recognized the demand of many retail items is proportional to the amount of inventory displayed recently two distinct types of inventory control models reflecting this relationship have appeared in the literature models in which the demand rate of an item is a function of the initial inventory level and those in which it is dependent on the instantaneous inventory level we present a comprehensive overview of this literature and demonstrate the equivalence of the two types of models through the use of a simple periodic review model an alternative approach to sensitivity analysis for inventory models with inventory level dependent demand is also presented

inflation and the optimal inventory replenishment schedule within a finite planning horizon abstract the subject of this paper is the problem of finding the optimal replenishment schedule for an inventory subject to time dependent demand and deterioration within a finite time planning horizon it is shown that taking inflation into account has a profound effect on the solution of the problem for instance there is a critical number of replenishment periods in excess of which the optimal schedule is characterized by the inclusion of token orders at the end of the planning horizon this and other conclusions obtained via a careful mathematical analysis of the problem rectify those of earlier studies

a production inventory model in an imperfect production process abstract the paper develops a model to determine the optimal product reliability and production rate that achieves the biggest total integrated profit for an imperfect manufacturing process the basic assumption of the classical economic manufacturing quantity emq model is that all manufacturing items are of perfect quality the assumption is not true in practice most of the production system produces perfect and imperfect quality items in some cases the imperfect quality non conforming items are reworked at a cost to restore its quality to the original one rework cost may be reduced by improvements in product reliability i e decreasing in product reliability parameter lower value of product reliability parameter results in increase development cost of production and also smaller quantity of nonconforming products the unit production cost is a function of product reliability parameter and production rate as a result higher development cost increases unit production cost the problem of optimal planning work and rework processes belongs to the broad field of production inventory model which deals with all kinds of reuse processes in supply chains these processes aim to recover defective product items in such a way that they meet the quality level of good item the benefits from imperfect quality items are regaining the material and value added on defective items and improving the environment protection in this point of view a model is introduced here to guide a firm industry in addressing variable product reliability factor variable unit production cost and dynamic production rate for time varying demand the paper provides an optimal control formulation of the problem and develops necessary and sufficient conditions for optimality of the dynamic variables in this purpose the euler lagrange method is used to obtain optimal solutions for product reliability parameter and dynamic production rate finally numerical examples are given to illustrate the proposed model

an algorithm to determine the eoq for deteriorating items with shortage and a linear trend in demand abstract in 1991 professors goswami and chaudhuri considered the inventory replenishment policy over a fixed planning period for a deteriorating item having a deterministic demand pattern with a linear trend and shortages basically they concentrated on the establishment of the inventory model but did not present a concrete algorithm to solve it this paper complements the shortcoming of goswami and chaudhuri s paper we first show that the total cost function of goswami and chaudhuri is convex subsequently with the convexity an algorithm to determine the number of reorders the interval between two successive reorders and the shortage intervals over a finite time horizon in an optimal manner is developed many numerical examples illustrate how the algorithm works

on an inventory model with deteriorating items and decreasing time varying demand and shortages in this paper we present an optimal procedure for finding the replenishment schedule for an inventory system with shortages in which items deteriorate at a constant rate and demand rates are decreasing over a known and finite planning horizon a numerical example is presented to illustrate the procedure

firm specific assets and the link between exchange rates and foreign direct investment foreign direct investment fdi theory and empirical studies have generated mixed support for a link between exchange rates and fdi this paper argues that exchange rate movements may affect acquisition fdi because acquisitions involve firm specific assets which can generate returns in currencies other than that used for purchase using data on japanese acquisitions in the united states across three digit sic industries from 1975 to 1992 maximum likelihood estimates from discrete dependent variable models support the hypothesis that real dollar depreciations make japanese acquisitions more likely in u s industries particularly those which more likely have firm specific assets copyright 1997 by american economic association

the effect of import quotas on national welfare comment the authors consider an economy with differential cash in advance constraints fiat money and no interest payments on cash they argue that the first best policy in such an economy is differential consumption taxes and if the exportable is cash intensive a second best policy is an import quota in this comment we argue that paying interest on cash or equivalently deflating the economy is better than differential taxation because it is administratively simpler and cheaper for variants of the model it is welfare superior and less susceptible to manipulation by rent seekers this issue is most relevant for high inflation economies for they have the highest interest rates and hence the highest opportunity costs of holding money such economies are typically developing

optimal order policy for deteriorating items with inflation induced demand abstract this paper presents the optimal inventory replenishment policy of deteriorating items under inflationary conditions using a discounted cash flow dcf approach over a finite planning horizon a dcf approach permits a proper recognition of the financial implication of the opportunity cost and out of pocket costs in inventory analysis it also permits an explicit recognition of the exact timing of cash flows associated with an inventory system the demand rate is assumed to be a function of inflation shortages are allowed and completely backlogged optimal solution for the proposed model is derived and the effects of deterioration and inflation on the optimal inventory replenishment policy are studied with the help of numerical example

a deteriorating inventory model with time varying demand and shortage dependent partial backlogging abstract recently chu et al p chu k l yang s k liang t niu note on inventory model with a mixture of back orders and lost sales european journal of operational research 159 2004 470 475 presented the necessary condition of the existence and uniqueness of the optimal solution of padmanabhan and vrat g padmanabhan p vrat inventory model with a mixture of back orders and lost sales international journal of systems science 21 1990 1721 1726 however they included neither the purchase cost nor the cost of lost sales into the total cost in this paper we complement the shortcoming of their model by adding not only the cost of lost sales but also the non constant purchase cost and then extend their model from a constant demand function to any log concave demand function we also provide a simple solution procedure to find the optimal replenishment schedule further we use a couple of numerical examples to illustrate the results and conclude with suggestions for future research

research note multinational diffusion models an alternative framework the literature on cross national diffusion models is gaining increased importance today due to the needs of present day managers new product sales growth in a given nation or society is affected by many factors rogers 1995 and of these sociocontagion or word of mouth has been found to be the most important factor that characterizes the diffusion process bass 1969 moore 1995 hence it is interesting and perhaps challenging to analyze what would happen if a new product diffuses in parallel in two neighboring but culturally different countries not only will we expect the diffusion process in the two countries to be different but we will also expect some interaction among them especially if the two societies mingle with each other there are two streams of research in cross national diffusion the first type focuses on exploring the differences between diffusion processes in two countries and finding out whether those differences can be attributed to social and cultural differences between the countries involved examples of this type of research are found in takada and jain 1991 gatignon et al 1989 helsen et al 1993 and kumar et al 1998 these studies did find some relationship between the cultural differences of the countries studied and the differences in the diffusion process the second stream of research focuses on modeling explicitly the interaction between the diffusion processes in two countries the interaction is typically captured through lead lag effect eliashberg and helsen 1996 kalish et al 1995 where the sales process in the lead country i e the country where the product was first introduced is modeled to affect the sales process in the lag country i e the country where the product was introduced a few years later another method to study the interaction among the diffusion processes in two countries was suggested by putsis et al 1997 who used a mixing model to empirically explore the existence of such interactions these studies basically observed that when a new product is introduced early in one country and with a time lag in subsequent countries the consumers in the lag countries learn about the product from the lead country adopters resulting in a faster diffusion rate in the lag countries ganesh and kumar 1996 formulized this effect as the learning effect and subsequently ganesh et al 1997 found this learning effect to be influenced by country specific factors cultural similarity economic similarity and time lag elapsed between the lead and the lag countries and product specific factors continuous vs discontinuous innovation and the presence or absence of a standardized technology a careful analysis of the extant literature on the second stream of research would reveal that neither the learning effect model nor the mixing model can be modified to accommodate the other model our contribution to the literature exactly addresses this point in this paper an alternative framework is proposed that has two unique features first the framework is flexible enough to not only account for the lead country affecting the lag countries and vice versa but also to accommodate the simultaneous interaction among countries in explaining the diffusion processes in the countries concerned using multiple product categories and a variety of new product introduction situations we empirically demonstrate the flexibility and efficiency of our proposed framework we found strong evidence of all types of interactions namely lead lag lag lead and simultaneous which evidence suggests that one cannot afford to omit any of the interactions the second unique feature of our paper is the estimation procedure that we used because statistical estimation of a dynamic process that includes lead lag lag lead and simultaneous types of causality within a single framework is not straightforward we suggest an iterative estimation procedure for the estimation this new procedure not only proved to be flexible in accommodating different types of interaction but also converged rather quickly in all of the cases that we empirically tested noting that the statistical properties of these estimators are not generally available we carried out a simulation exercise that clearly revealed the efficiency of the proposed estimation procedure after analyzing the interaction we went further and showed that the magnitude of the cross national influences is affected by certain country specific and product specific factors the flexibility of the proposed method over the existing methods is demonstrated through obtaining superior forecasts with the proposed method several interesting insights for managers concerned with formulating international marketing strategies are offered

market roll out and retailer adoption for new brands this paper proposes a descriptive model of the spatial and temporal evolution of retail distribution for new packaged goods the distribution model postulates separate processes for local market entry by manufacturers and adoption by retailers given entry of special interest is whether retail adoption occurs along a competitive network with retailers as nodes and overlapping trade areas of these retailers as links the model is calibrated on data covering the introduction of two very successful new brands in the frozen pizza category for these brands manufacturers sequentially enter markets based on spatial proximity to markets already entered spatial evolution and on whether chains in these markets adopted previously elsewhere market selection a retail chain adopts new brands based on the adoption timing of competing chains within its trade territory competitive contagion and on the fraction of its trade area in which the new brand is available trade area coverage the effects of market selection and of trade area coverage create dependencies between market entry and retail adoption because of these dependencies the attraction of a particular market as a lead market depends on its location in the geographic structure of the u s retail trade

strategic foreign direct investment and exchange rate uncertainty we investigate how exchange rate uncertainty affects the foreign direct investment decision of a risk neutral multinational firm mnf we assume the firm can open plants each with decreasing average costs in two different countries under certainty the mnf would open only one plant we demonstrate that with sufficient exchange rate volatility the firm can increase expected profits by opening several plants we also show that if the mnf faces a competitor in the foreign market the exchange risk by inducing the mnf to open plants in both markets may prevent entry by the local competitor

nexus between economic sanctions and inflation a case study in iran abstractconventional studies have applied dummy variables to analyse the relationship between economic sanctions and inflation while we construct an index which is called trade financial sanctions

joint pricing and inventory control for non instantaneous deteriorating items with partial backlogging and time and price dependent demand abstract in this paper a joint pricing and inventory control for non instantaneous deteriorating items is developed we adopt a price and time dependent demand function shortages is allowed and partially backlogged the major objective is to determine the optimal selling price the optimal replenishment schedule and the optimal order quantity simultaneously such that the total profit is maximized we first show that for any given selling price optimal replenishment schedule exists and unique then we show that the total profit is a concave function of price next we present a simple algorithm to find the optimal solution finally we solve a numerical example to illustrate the solution procedure and the algorithm

an inventory model for deteriorating items with time proportional demand and shortages under inflation and time discounting this paper proposes a generalized dynamic programming model for inventory items with weibull distributed deterioration in this model the demand rate is assumed to be time proportional shortages are allowed and completely backordered and the effects of inflation and time value of money are taken into consideration the solutions of the model determine the optimal replenishment schedule over a finite planning horizon so that the present worth of total cost associated with the inventory system is minimized the proposed model permits variation in both the replenishment intervals and the service levels between order cycles as a result it generates a better solution than other optimization models having fixed order intervals and or fixed service levels the solution procedure is illustrated by two numerical examples and comparison with an existing model is carried out

money and asset prices in a cash in advance economy an asset pricing model with money introduced via a cash in advance constraint is presented the monetary velocity is variable hence money demand does not obey the trivial quantity equation the effects of disturbances in output and money growth on real balances the price level and interest rates are examined monetary policy has effects on real asset prices the fisher relation and the premium on nominal bonds are discussed the precise role of the timing of information and transactions for properties of price levels and interest rates are clarified

the merits of horizontal versus vertical fdi in the presence of uncertainty we examine the impact of uncertainty on vertical and horizontal fdi our model shows that greater supply uncertainty reduces the expected income from vertical fdi but increases the expected income from horizontal fdi greater demand uncertainty adversely affects the expected income under both production modes uncertainty about predatory actions by the host country is more costly to the multinational under vertical than under the horizontal mode we examine sales by foreign affiliates of u s parent companies conditioning on host country characteristics thought to influence fdi we find evidence that volatility and sovereign risk have a greater negative impact on vertical fdi than on horizontal fdi

mixing behavior in cross country diffusion diffusion models represent one of the key successes in marketing science we understand a great deal about what influences and shapes within country diffusion patterns however we understand far less about what influences and shapes cross country or inter country diffusion patterns clearly for firms operating in a truly global environment understanding to what extent prior adoption in one country affects current and consequently future adoption in another country can be an important consideration further understanding how the pattern of interaction across countries impacts the diffusion process can have profound implications for product launch strategies for new durable products in this paper we address the extent to which prior adoption of a new product in one country affects adoption in other countries in particular we investigate the importance of the pattern of interaction what we call mixing across countries in the context of a new product diffusion model more specifically mixing refers to the pattern of communication within and across countries for example do italians communicate only with other italians or do they influence consumers in other countries understanding and empirically estimating how these mixing patterns across countries influence the subsequent diffusion process is the central research objective of this paper while previous research in marketing addressing cross country diffusion has assumed very specific forms of cross country interaction the present study develops and estimates a flexible form of mixing that allows for the simultaneous estimation of mixing patterns across multiple countries in particular we examine the effect of mixing behavior across populations on new product adoption viewing mixing as occurring across a continuum with segregation no mixing at one end and random mixing at the other intermediate forms of mixing lie along this continuum and are called bernoulli mixing in order to produce generalizable results we obtained sales data on four product categories in the european community ec nations vcrs from 1977 1990 microwave ovens 1975 1990 compact disc players 1984 1993 and home computers 1981 1991 for each product data were collected for 10 ec nations great britain germany france italy spain belgium denmark netherlands sweden and austria a diffusion model that incorporates cross country prior adoption cross country mixing patterns and individual country covariates was estimated simultaneously across the 10 countries for each of the four products on the basis of the empirical results we conclude that mixing behavior across segments is an important consideration in new product diffusion specifically the observed pattern of mixing and the strength of cross segment influences are important considerations in allocating the marketing mix during product introduction stages the practical implication of mixing behavior is that if one wishes to understand diffusion in belgium for example it is important to not only know the diffusion parameters in belgium but also those in other ec nations accordingly these results should be of interest to managers responsible for coordinating new product launches across countries and to researchers interested in investigating cross country diffusion issues as an example of the strategic implications of the results we note that under bernoulli mixing future country launches will benefit not only from prior adoption in countries with high overall contact rates but in particular from countries with high rates of contact with other countries although there is some variance across products in general germany france italy and spain are the most gregarious as measured by the rate of contact the results suggest that a strategy of first focusing on germany france italy and spain will maximize adoption in subsequent countries each of these countries tends to have a higher percentage of its contacts with individuals internal to its borders as well as with other countries this suggests that these countries would have relatively quick adoption internally while having a strong influence externally further for countries such as denmark netherlands austria and sweden a higher percentage of their contacts are derived from outside their borders thus seeding the diffusion process by introducing first in germany france italy and spain would benefit later adoption in countries such as denmark netherlands austria and sweden although the strength of the individual country influence varies from product to product this result is generally consistent across the four products

inventory ordering policies of delayed deteriorating items under permissible delay in payments abstract the existing literature on inventory of deteriorating items considers deterioration to begin as soon as the items are stocked however there are several deteriorating items that do not start deteriorating immediately they are held in stock some farm produce like potatoes yams and even some fruits and vegetables have this property depletion of these items as soon as they are stocked will depend on demand and when deterioration begins it will depend on both demand and deterioration in this paper we develop a mathematical model on the inventory of deteriorating items that do not start deteriorating immediately they are stocked the model also takes into cognizance the fact that in business activities nowadays customers are given some allowed period within which to settle for the goods supplied to them they can use the accrued money from sales of the supplied goods to earn interest within the allowed period they are charged interest only when they fail to settle the amount they owe the supplier at the end of the allowed period

a further exploration in the theory of exchange rate regimes in an interesting paper in this journal elhanan helpman 1981 develops a simple two country model to compare the welfare levels that are achieved under different exchange rate regimes in a world characterized by perfect foresight his basic finding is that equilibrium consumption allocations and hence welfare levels are identical under a floating exchange rate system and a one sided peg fixed exchange rate regime this result is due to helpman s assumption that output is determined exogenously which allows a separation of the real and monetary sides of the economy the purpose of this paper is to extend helpman s model by making two alterations in his setup 1 to allow production to be endogenously determined as a function of labor force participation and 2 to allow welfare levels to be dependent on labor service as well as on consumption the main conclusion then obtained is that a country may achieve a higher welfare level under a flexible exchange rate regime than under a fixed exchange rate regime since it is able to choose an optimal rate of inflation or currency depreciation

the strategic impact of references in business markets we investigate a business to business context and ask when and why a firm should announce a reference program that commits the firm to facilitating the flow of information about the efficacy of its products from early adopters to potential late adopters we model a monopolist manufacturer with a new innovation that can be sold to two potential customers we demonstrate here two benefits of a reference program that relate not to an increase in later adopters willingness to pay but to an increase in the willingness to pay of the early adopters themselves the impact on the early adopters willingness to pay arises in two ways as a result of their observation of the firm s commitment to information transmission first in a model of symmetric uncertainty we show that the announcement of a reference program facilitates dynamic pricing by the manufacturer in the sense that it allows the firm to provide temporary exclusive use of the technology to one of the customers this creates more value which the manufacturer can extract via a higher price in this way a reference program can serve as a partial substitute for an exclusive use contract in a model with asymmetric information we demonstrate that under certain conditions the firm is able to use the reference program as a signal again to the early adopting customer that its technology is of high quality however such a signal requires significant discounts to early adopters to ensure separation as a result a pooling equilibrium dominates in which the manufacturer fosters references regardless of its quality finally by allowing the firms private information to be stochastic we show that separation may be a dominant outcome

social contagion and income heterogeneity in new product diffusion a meta analytic test standard diffusion models capture social contagion only coarsely and do not allow one to operationalize different contagion mechanisms moreover there is increasing skepticism about the importance of contagion and as has long been known s shaped diffusion curves can also result from heterogeneity in the propensity to adopt we present hypotheses about conditions under which specific contagion mechanisms and income heterogeneity are more pronounced and test these hypotheses using a meta analysis of the q p ratio in applications of the bass diffusion model the ratio is positively associated with the gini index of income inequality in a country supporting the heterogeneity in thresholds interpretation the ratio also varies as predicted by the gamma shifted gompertz diffusion model but the evidence vanishes after controlling for national culture as to contagion the q p ratio varies with the four hofstede dimensions of national culture for three of them in a direction consistent with the social contagion interpretation furthermore products with competing standards have a higher q p ratio which is again consistent with the social contagion interpretation finally we find effects of national culture only for products without competing standards suggesting that technological effects and culturally moderated social contagion effects might not operate independently from each other

lead markets country specific drivers of the global diffusion of innovations abstract globally successful innovations have commonly been preferred first in one country or region before being adopted internationally countries that first adopt an internally successful innovation can be described as lead markets this paper presents the lead market concept of developing global innovations the lead role of a market is discussed first theoretically and then by use of a system of five country specific factors demand advantages price advantages export advantages transfer advantages and market structure advantages the applicability of this system of lead market factors is then evaluated in a detailed case study of the cellular mobile telephone industry it is finally suggested that companies can harness lead markets for the development of global innovations by developing and refining innovations in close interaction with the local environment of a lead market a company can focus on a narrow range of preferences and feedback lowering the risk of being locked into idiosyncratic environments and generate true global innovations a method for identifying potential lead markets is briefly discussed

global takeoff of new products culture wealth or vanishing differences the authors study the takeoff of 16 new products across 31 countries 430 categories to analyze how and why takeoff varies across products and countries they test the effect of 12 hypothesized drivers of takeoff using a parametric hazard model the authors find that the average time to takeoff varies substantially between developed and developing countries between work and fun products across cultural clusters and over calendar time products take off fastest in japan and norway followed by other nordic countries the united states and some countries of midwestern europe takeoff is driven by culture and wealth plus product class product vintage and prior takeoff most importantly time to takeoff is shortening over time and takeoff is converging across countries the authors discuss the implications of these findings

impact of electricity prices on foreign direct investment evidence from the european union in the course of recent years growing concerns over increasing energy prices have emerged in the context of maintaining europe s international competitiveness in particular rising electricity price differentials adversely affect firms total production costs and ultimately impact their investment decisions nonetheless electricity prices as locational determinants of foreign direct investment fdi have received little attention in the literature so far we address this gap by including electricity prices in the traditional framework of fdi analysis and examine the impact of price variation on net fdi inflows in countries of the european union eu we use a panel of 27 countries for a period of 2003 2013 and system generalised method of moments gmm as method of estimation the main findings of the paper confirm that besides tax rates unit labour costs and competitive disadvantage in secondary education also electricity prices contribute to eroding competitiveness of the countries yet the effect of electricity prices does not seem to be uniform across the eu in fact southwestern countries tend to be more adversely affected than north eastern both in the short and long run

an elasticity approach to the newsvendor with price sensitive demand we introduce a measure of elasticity of stochastic demand called the elasticity of the lost sales rate which offers a unifying perspective on the well known newsvendor with pricing problem this new concept provides a framework to characterize structural results for coordinated and uncoordinated pricing and inventory strategies concavity and submodularity of the profit function as well as sensitivity properties of the optimal inventory and price policies are characterized by monotonicity conditions or bounds on the elasticity of the lost sales rate these elasticity conditions are satisfied by most relevant demand models in the marketing and operations literature our results unify and complement previous work on price setting newsvendor models and provide a new tool for researchers modeling stochastic price sensitive demand in other contexts

high definition television assessing demand forecasts for a next generation consumer durable high definition television promises to be the next generation of television this technology has broad implications for consumer markets as well as the underlying manufacturing technology development and r d activities of firms under increasing pressure from various groups the u s government must make major policy and funding decisions based on its assessment of the likely demand for hdtv three published reports which forecast sales of hdtv after its scheduled introduction in the mid 1990s are available unfortunately these forecasts offer widely differing perspectives on hdtv s potential this paper presents an approach that links product segmentation based on historical demand parameters and marketing and manufacturing related variables and demand forecasting for new products the published hdtv forecasts are then assessed using this segmentation scheme differing from the congressional budget office s earlier evaluation this analysis indicates that one report is consistent with historical d

an optimal replenishment policy for non instantaneous deteriorating items with stock dependent demand and partial backlogging abstract in this study we consider a problem of determining the optimal replenishment policy for non instantaneous deteriorating items with stock dependent demand in the model shortages are allowed and the backlogging rate is variable and dependent on the waiting time for the next replenishment the necessary and sufficient conditions of the existence and uniqueness of the optimal solution are shown as the special cases the results for the models with instantaneous or non instantaneous deterioration rate and with or without shortages are derived further we analytically identify the best circumstance among these special cases based on the minimum total relevant cost per unit time sensitivity analysis of the optimal solution with respect to major parameters is carried out finally four numerical examples are presented to demonstrate the developed model and the solution procedure

an eoq model with ramp type demand rate time dependent deterioration rate unit production cost and shortages an order level inventory system for deteriorating items has been developed with demand rate as a ramp type function of time the finite production rate is proportional to the demand rate and deterioration rate is time proportional the unit production cost is inversely proportional to the demand rate the model with no shortage case in inventory is first solved the inventory shortage is discussed next results are illustrated with two numerical examples for two models along with its sensitivity

anticipated inflation and the capital stock in a cash in advance economy abstract an economy is constructed in which the steady state capital stock is inversely related to the rate of inflation as a result that is directly opposite the usual conclusion

optimal taxation and inflation in an open economy abstract this paper examines the role of the inflation tax in the optimal revenue raising tax package for a small open economy where money is held because it serves to reduce transacttions costs associated with purchasing goods consumers choose whether domestic money or foreign money will serve as the medium of exchange for various goods purchases so as to minimize such costs results are derived regarding the appropriate role of taxes on domestic and foreign money in the optimal tax structure it is demonstrated that with a sufficiently rich tax structure friedman s rule which calls for a monetary policy that drives the nominal interest rate to zero is a component of the optimal tax policy

a taxonomy and research overview of perishable asset revenue management yield management overbooking and pricing this paper proposes the term perishable asset revenue management to denote the field that combines the areas of yield management overbooking and pricing for perishable assets after summarizing the characteristics common to problems in this field the paper discusses the objectives and constraints faced by decision makers then it offers a comprehensive taxonomy with 14 different elements and reviews the research that has been done related to each element finally it suggests some important areas of future research that can help bridge the gap between theory and application

optimal and heuristic inventory replenishment models for deteriorating items with exponential time varying demand abstract in this paper we present optimal and heuristic procedures for the inventory replenishment problem in which items are deteriorating at a constant rate the demand rates are changing exponentially with time over a known and finite planning horizon we have developed an iterative numerical procedure to find the optimal replenishment schedule the first two heuristics are based on the economic order interval approximation the third heuristic restricts all the replenishment cycles over the planning horizon to be equal over the planning horizon the last three heuristics are extended versions of the silver meal heuristic the least cost approach and the least unit cost heuristic which were used in the inventory literature for the case of discrete time varying demand without deterioration we further assess the cost and computation time effectiveness of the six heuristics the results of a sample of 1440 problems show that the extended least cost approach is the most cost effective

optimal entry timing in markets with social influence firms routinely face the challenging decision of whether to enter a new market where a firm s strong presence in an existing market has a positive influence the leverage effect on product adoption in the new market but the reciprocal social influence on the existing market is negative the backlash effect in this paper we show that a firm s optimal entry strategy in this situation cannot be characterized by the familiar now or never or now or at maturity strategies proposed in the literature we show that a strong leverage effect does not necessarily provide the justification for a firm to enter a new market and neither should a strong backlash effect necessarily deter a firm from embracing a new market the optimal strategy is predicated on a judicious trade off between the three factors of leverage backlash and patience thus an astute manager can always find the opportune time to enter the new market if she takes into account the dynamic and recursive nature of cross market interaction effects where leverage enhances the backlash but backlash weakens the leverage in a nonlinear dynamic fashion we illustrate that firms stand to benefit from explicit considerations of these effects in deciding whether and when to enter a new market furthermore we explore how the optimal time of entry into the new market relates to the time of peak sales for the existing market demonstrating that depending on the interactive effects of leverage and backlash entry could be optimal either before or after peak sales in the existing market

new product diffusion with influentials and imitators we model the diffusion of innovations in markets with two segments influentials who are more in touch with new developments and who affect another segment of imitators whose own adoptions do not affect the influentials this two segment structure with asymmetric influence is consistent with several theories in sociology and diffusion research as well as many viral or network marketing strategies we have four main results 1 diffusion in a mixture of influentials and imitators can exhibit a dip or chasm between the early and later parts of the diffusion curve 2 the proportion of adoptions stemming from influentials need not decrease monotonically but may first decrease and then increase 3 erroneously specifying a mixed influence model to a mixture process where influentials act independently from each other can generate systematic changes in the parameter values reported in earlier research 4 empirical analysis of 33 different data series indicates that the two segment model fits better than the standard mixed influence the gamma shifted gompertz and the weibull gamma models especially in cases where a two segment structure is likely to exist also the two segment model fits about as well as the karmeshu goswami mixed influence model in which the coefficients of innovation and imitation vary across potential adopters in a continuous fashion

growing growing gone cascades diffusion and turning points in the product life cycle research on the product life cycle plc has focused primarily on the role of diffusion this study takes a broader theoretical perspective on the plc by incorporating informational cascades and developing and testing many new hypotheses based on this theory on average across 30 product categories the authors find that i new consumer durables have a typical pattern of rapid growth of 45 per year over 8 years ii this period of growth is followed by a slowdown when sales decline by 15 and stay below those of the previous peak for 5 years iii slowdown occurs at 34 population penetration and about 50 of ultimate market penetration iv products with large sales increases at takeoff tend to have larger sales declines at slowdown v leisure enhancing products tend to have higher growth rates and shorter growth stages than nonleisure enhancing products time saving products tend to have lower growth rates and longer growth stages than nontime saving products vi lower probability of slowdown is associated with steeper price reductions lower penetration and higher economic growth vii a hazard model can provide reasonable predictions of the slowdown as early as the takeoff the authors discuss the implications of these findings

a deterministic eoq model with delays in payments and price discount offers abstract it is the purpose of this paper to model the retailer s profit maximizing strategy when confronted with supplier s trade offer of credit and price discount on the purchase of merchandise generally retailers have to face many types of demands for different kinds of goods in real situation retailers have to correlate between the selling price and supplier s trade offer keeping in mind profit maximization strategy in the proposed model all increasing deterministic demands are discussed analytically numerically and graphically in the environment of permissible delay in payment and discount offer to the retailer

demand and supply dynamics for sequentially released products in international markets the case of motion pictures we develop an econometric model to study a setting in which a new product is launched first in its domestic market and only at a later stage in foreign markets and where the product s performance demand and availability supply are highly interdependent over time within and across markets integrating literature on international diffusion success breeds success trends and the theatrical motion picture industry the focus of the empirical analysis we develop a dynamic simultanenous equations model of the drivers and interrelationship of the behavior of consumers audiences and retailers exhibitors our findings emphasize the importance of considering the endogeneity and simultaneity of audience and exhibitor behavior and challenge conventional wisdom on the determinants of box office performance which is predominantly based on modeling frameworks that fail to account for the interdependence of performance and availability specifically we find that variables such as movie attributes and advertising expenditures which are usually assumed to influence audiences directly mostly influence revenuesindirectly namely through their impact on exhibitors screen allocations in addition consistent with the idea that the buzz for a movie is perishable we find that the longer is the time lag between releases the weaker is the relationship between domestic and foreign market performance an effect mostly driven by foreign exhibitors screen allocations

optimal inventory policy for a perishable item with demand function sensitive to price and time abstract we formulate a model for determining the optimal pricing order quantity and replenishment period for perishable items with price dependent and time dependent demand the items have a fixed shelf life and the demand rate decreases linearly in the selling price and polynomially over the time after replenishment until it vanishes either at the reservation price or at expiration time we prove that the three variable profit maximization problem can be reduced into a single variable problem in which the variable is the duration of the replenishment period we show that the profit function is strictly pseudo concave and provide means of obtaining the optimal policy three numerical examples are presented to demonstrate the model accompanied by a sensitivity analysis

on a finite horizon production lot size inventory model for deteriorating items an optimal solution abstract a generalized production lot size inventory model for deteriorating items over a finite planning horizon is considered the demand production and deteriorating rates are assumed to be known and continuous functions of time shortages are allowed and completely backlogged the conditions under which the system total cost attains its unique global minimum are derived an example which illustrate the applicability of theoretical results is also introduced

optimal replenishment policies for non instantaneous deteriorating items with stock dependent demand abstract wu et al 2006 an optimal replenishment policy for non instantaneous deteriorating items with stock dependent demand and partial backlogging international journal of production economics 101 369 384 established an inventory model for non instantaneous deteriorating items with stock dependent demand and obtained the optimal replenishment policy in this paper we first amend wu et al s model by changing the objective to maximizing the total profit secondly we set a maximum inventory level in the model to reflect the facts that most retail outlets have limited shelf space thirdly we relax the restriction of zero ending inventory when shortages are not desirable we then establish the theoretical results and provide an algorithm to find the optimal solution finally we present some numerical examples to illustrate the results

modeling multinational diffusion patterns an efficient methodology the objective of this study is to develop an econometric model for the diffusion of innovations at the individual country level but which also allows the parameters of the process to differ systematically across countries the conceptualization rests on behavioral and spatial theories of diffusion and extends the domain to international markets the cross national model of innovation diffusion which is developed highlights substantive differences and similarities among international markets it also provides estimates for the diffusion parameters even for countries where sales data are not available thereby yielding some insights into the nature of the expected diffusion pattern in these countries prior to market entry

optimal order quantity and pricing decisions in single period inventory systems abstract in this paper we consider simultaneous pricing and procurement decisions associated with a one period pure inventory model under deterministic or probabilistic demand we investigate the necessary and sufficient conditions for an type policy to be optimal for the determination of the procurement quantity we also show how the corresponding optimal price can be obtained