co2 emissions energy consumption and economic growth in china a panel data analysis this paper examines the causal relationships between carbon dioxide emissions energy consumption and real economic output using panel cointegration and panel vector error correction modeling techniques based on the panel data for 28 provinces in china over the period 1995 2007 our empirical results show that co2 emissions energy consumption and economic growth have appeared to be cointegrated moreover there exists bidirectional causality between co2 emissions and energy consumption and also between energy consumption and economic growth it has also been found that energy consumption and economic growth are the long run causes for co2 emissions and co2 emissions and economic growth are the long run causes for energy consumption the results indicate that china s co2 emissions will not decrease in a long period of time and reducing co2 emissions may handicap china s economic growth to some degree some policy implications of the empirical results have finally been proposed

rising inequality as a cause of the present crisis the article argues that the economic imbalances that caused the present crisis should be thought of as the outcome of the interaction of the effects of financial deregulation with the macroeconomic effects of rising inequality in this sense rising inequality should be regarded as a root cause of the present crisis i identify four channels by which it has contributed to the crisis first rising inequality creates a downwards pressure on aggregate demand since poorer income groups have high marginal propensities to consume second international financial deregulation has allowed countries to run larger current account deficits and for longer time periods thus in reaction to potentially stagnant demand two growth models have emerged a debt led model and an export led model third in the debt led growth models higher inequality has led to higher household debt as working class families have tried to keep up with social consumption norms despite stagnating or falling real wages fourth rising inequality has increased the propensity to speculate as richer households tend to hold riskier financial assets than other groups the rise of hedge funds and of subprime derivatives in particular has been linked to rise of the super rich

financialisation income distribution and aggregate demand in the usa this paper investigates the effects of financialisation and functional income distribution on aggregate demand in the usa by estimating the effects of the increase in rentier income dividends and interest payments and housing and financial wealth on consumption and investment the redistribution of income in favour of profits suppresses consumption whereas the increase in the rentier income and wealth has positive effects a higher rentier income decreases investment without the wealth effects the overall effect of the changes in distribution on aggregate demand would have been negative thus a pro capital income distribution leads to a slightly negative effect on growth i e the usa economy is moderately wage led

modeling the global relationships among economic growth energy consumption and co2 emissions abstract the relationships among economic growth energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions needs to be paid attention since the characteristics of global warming is from economy and greenhouse gas emissions this study employs a panel cointegration and vector error correction model to discuss the dynamic economy energy environment nexus for 188 countries for the periods of 1993 2010 the empirical results indicate that there exist long run relationships between economic growth energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions for all countries it is worth noting that energy consumption negatively affects gdp in the world as a whole and developing countries but not in developed countries and the unidirectional causality from energy consumption to carbon dioxide emissions exists both on developing and developed countries that means the developed countries should take more responsibility on the energy efficiency and mitigating greenhouse gas emissions ghge on other hand environmental regulations related to the prevention of environmental degradation as the economy grows need to be adopted by all countries

investigating environmental kuznets curve from an energy intensity perspective empirical evidence from china abstract this study pioneers investigating the environmental kuznets curve ekc hypothesis and its possible regional differential characteristics in china based on 2003 2017 years of provincial panel data this research employs panel smooth transition auto regression pstr model to analyze the impact of income levels on environmental pollution and identify the ekc threshold of energy intensity then 30 chinese provinces were categorized by energy intensity to examine the inter provincial and interregional differences in the ekc threshold of energy intensity rather than the traditional threshold of income the results indicate that china s pollution emissions and energy intensities show a stepwise decreasing pattern from the western region to the eastern region in addition the impact of income levels on pollution emissions is non linear and the critical value of energy intensity is 0 9168 between the high and low regimes an inverted u shaped environmental kuznets curve is accepted for energy intensity with 0 7670 as its threshold value when the energy intensity is higher lower than the threshold value the income elasticity of pollution emission is positive negative the more developed provinces and municipalities mainly in the eastern region are proved to exceed the threshold than the provinces in the central and western regions within the sample period given these findings this study further divides china s provinces into eco friendly low pollution and high pollution provinces and accordingly the most important policy recommendations were discussed for policy makers and researchers this research can provide a new insight to investigate countries with unbalanced development levels within and a reference for environmental governance policies in sub regions

pollution and economic growth evidence from central and eastern european countries abstract we investigate the relationships between pollution and growth in eleven central and eastern european cee countries aggregate results robust to different estimators and control variables reveal an increasing nonlinear link between gdp and co2 for the group of cee countries however at a disaggregated country level the relationship between gdp and co2 is characterized by much diversity among cee countries namely n shaped inverted n u shaped inverted u monotonic or no statistical link thus despite an aggregated upward trend some cee countries managed to secure both higher gdp and lower co2 emissions from a policy perspective eu policymakers could pay more attention to these countries and amend the current unique environmental policy to account for country heterogeneities in order to support economic growth without damaging the environment

energy consumption and gdp in developing countries a cointegrated panel analysis in this paper we re investigate the co movement and the causality relationship between energy consumption and gdp in 18 developing countries using data for the period 1975 to 2001 recently developed tests for the panel unit root heterogeneous panel cointegration and panel based error correction models are employed the empirical results provide clear support of a long run cointegration relationship after allowing for the heterogeneous country effect the long run relationship is estimated using a full modified ols the evidence shows that long run and short run causalities run from energy consumption to gdp but not vice versa this result indicates that energy conservation may harm economic growth in developing countries regardless of being transitory or permanent

managerial overconfidence in initial public offering decisions and its impact on macrodynamics and financial stability analysis using an agent based model abstract in this study we build a macroeconomic agent based model that is calibrated for the specific case of poland to explore whether the overconfidence of top corporate managers in the context of their initial public offering ipo decisions is detrimental for the firms being managed in this way the financial market dynamics and the selected macroeconomic indicators we found a contradiction between the micro and macro impacts of overconfidence overconfident firms showed better performance in terms of output than other firms but were also more exposed to stock market volatility thereby making them more likely to default the higher default rates of overoptimistic firms negatively impacted the banking sector and increased financial instability finally we ran policy shocks and showed that increased financial instability can be offset by strengthening the regulation of the banking sector

the demand for international reserves in china an ecm model with domestic monetary disequilibrium this paper employs a version of the error correction model to investigate the demand for international reserves in a typical planned economy china disturbances from the domestic markets are considered by incorporating the monetary disequilibrium into the model the authors main conclusions are that 1 reserve holdings in china have maintained a long run relationship and a stable dynamic relationship with several determinants since the 1950s confirming china s prudential foreign reserve policy and 2 monetary disequilibrium has significant short run effects on reserve holdings reflecting the authorities general balancing policy in their annual planning copyright 1994 by the london school of economics and political science

the renewable energy growth and environmental kuznets curve in turkey an ardl approach abstract this study examines the potential of renewable energy sources in reducing the impact of ghg emissions in turkey using autoregressive distributed lag ardl approach the relationship between co 2 emissions electricity generated using renewables and gdp in turkey has been investigated during 1961 2010 moreover the validity of environmental kuznets curve ekc hypothesis has been tested model results show that the coefficient of electricity production from renewable sources hydro power excluded with respect to co 2 emissions is negative and significant in the long run although this effect is positive and statistically significant in the short run since the ecm term is 0 82 it becomes negative around 1 year this means that renewable electricity production will contribute to environmental enhancement with a one year lag our results also suggest a u shaped ekc relationship between per capita ghgs and income estimations from a long run regression show that although the peak point of gdp per capita has been calculated to be 9920 us dollars this turning point was outside of the observed sample period therefore ghg emissions start to decrease with an increase in per capita gdp in the following years model research implies the potential and the importance of renewable energy sources in controlling of emissions in turkey

the stability of the demand for international reserves abstract empirical studies based on data from the 1960s and 1970s yielded estimated demands for international reserves that have been regarded as stable functions of a limited set of variables exept during the period surrounding the collapse of the bretton woods system this paper examines the stability of these estimated demands by extending the samles to include data from the 1980s the new estimation results indicate that the emergenceof external payments difficulties and reduced access to international financial markets of many countries have been accompanied by changes in the changes in the estimated demands for reserves that were as large as those that occurred during the collapse ofthe bretton woods system

energy consumption and economic growth new insights into the cointegration relationship abstract this paper examines the long run relationship between energy consumption and real gdp including energy prices for 25 oecd countries from 1981 to 2007 the distinction between common factors and idiosyncratic components using principal component analysis allows to distinguish between developments on an international and a national level as drivers of the long run relationship indeed cointegration between the common components of the underlying variables indicates that international developments dominate the long run relationship between energy consumption and real gdp furthermore the results suggest that energy consumption is price inelastic causality tests indicate the presence of a bi directional causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth

co2 emissions energy consumption and economic growth in bric countries abstract this paper examines dynamic causal relationships between pollutant emissions energy consumption and output for a panel of bric countries over the period 1971 2005 except for russia 1990 2005 in long run equilibrium energy consumption has a positive and statistically significant impact on emissions while real output exhibits the inverted u shape pattern associated with the environmental kuznets curve ekc hypothesis with the threshold income of 5 393 in logarithms in the short term changes in emissions are driven mostly by the error correction term and short term energy consumption shocks as opposed to short term output shocks for each country short term deviations from the long term equilibrium take from 0 770 years russia to 5 848 years brazil to correct the panel causality results indicate there are energy consumption emissions bidirectional strong causality and energy consumption output bidirectional long run causality along with unidirectional both strong and short run causalities from emissions and energy consumption respectively to output overall in order to reduce emissions and not to adversely affect economic growth increasing both energy supply investment and energy efficiency and stepping up energy conservation policies to reduce unnecessary wastage of energy can be initiated for energy dependent bric countries

do individual preferences explain the environmental kuznets curve abstract some economists maintain the optimistic view that individual preferences of rich people eventually lead to a virtuous circle relationship between rising income and environmental degradation in this article i review some of the models that establish a relationship between individual preferences and environmental quality these models provide a basis for discussion of the key role played by two factors individual preferences and technology they do not however capture the distributive conflicts that occur between different social groups in the process of defining environmental policy neither do they provide a good basis for distinguishing between environmental costs caused by the decisions of particular consumers and those which affect the same consumers this point is related to the various manners in which environmental costs are displaced displacement often occurs within a country for current costs and is even clearer and more relevant when costs are transferred across a great distance or to a remote future in such cases there are few incentives to reduce consumption or alter its composition displacement moreover can become a strategy pursued more or less consciously for maintaining high and rising levels of consumption without dealing with the associated environmental costs

energy consumption and economic growth evidence from 11 sub sahara african countries abstract the paper examines the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth for eleven countries in sub saharan africa using the autoregressive distributed lag ardl bounds test the study finds that energy consumption is cointegrated with economic growth in cameroon cote d ivoire gambia ghana senegal sudan and zimbabwe moreover this test suggests that energy consumption has a significant positive long run impact on economic growth in ghana kenya senegal and sudan granger causality test based on vector error correction model vecm shows bi directional relationship between energy consumption and economic growth for gambia ghana and senegal however granger causality test shows that economic growth granger causes energy consumption in sudan and zimbabwe the neutrality hypothesis is confirmed in respect of cameroon and cote d ivoire the same result of no causality was found for nigeria kenya and togo the result shows that each country should formulate appropriate energy conservation policies taking into cognizance of her peculiar condition

energy consumption and gdp causality relationship in g 7 countries and emerging markets abstract the causality relationship between energy consumption and income is a well studied topic in energy economics this paper studies the time series properties of energy consumption and gdp and reexamines the causality relationship between the two series in the top 10 emerging markets excluding china due to lack of data and g 7 countries we discover bi directional causality in argentina causality running from gdp to energy consumption in italy and korea and from energy consumption to gdp in turkey france germany and japan hence energy conservation may harm economic growth in the last four countries

has consumption inequality mirrored income inequality we revisit to what extent the increase in income inequality since 1980 was mirrored by consumption inequality we do so by constructing an alternative measure of consumption expenditure using a demand system to correct for systematic measurement error in the consumer expenditure survey our estimation exploits the relative expenditure of high and low income households on luxuries versus necessities this double differencing corrects for measurement error that can vary over time by good and income we find consumption inequality tracked income inequality much more closely than estimated by direct responses on expenditures jel d31 d63 e21

house prices home equity based borrowing and the u s household leverage crisis us household leverage sharply increased in the years preceding the 2007 eco nomic recession the top panel of figure 1 shows the steady rise in household debt since 1975 which accelerated beginning in 2002 in just five years the household sector doubled its debt balance in comparison the contemporaneous increase in corporate debt was modest the middle panel shows that the increase in household debt from 2002 to 2007 translated into a striking rise in household leverage as mea sured by the debt to income ratio during the same time period corporate leverage declined the dramatic absolute and relative rise in us household leverage from 2002 to 2007 is unprecedented compared to the last 25 years one reason for the rapid expansion in household leverage during this period is that mortgage credit became more easily available to new home buyers mian and sufi 2009 strong house price appreciation from 2002 to 2006 however which may have been fueled by the availability of mortgage credit to a riskier set of new home buyers could also have had an important feedback effect on household lever age through existing homeowners given that 65 percent of us households already owned their primary residence before the acceleration in house prices the feedback from house prices to borrowing may be an important source of the rapid rise in household leverage that preceded the economic downturn our central goals in this study are to estimate how homeowner borrowing responded to the increase in house prices and to identify which homeowners responded most aggressively we examine this home equity based borrowing channel using a dataset consisting of anonymous individual credit files of a national consumer credit bureau agency we follow a random sample of over 74 000 us homeowners who owned their homes as of 1997 at an annual frequency from the end of 1997 until the end of 2008 the bottom panel of figure 1 plots the growth in debt of 1997 homeowners over time and shows that existing homeowners borrow significantly more debt as their house prices appreciate from 2002 to 2006 while the aggregate trend is suggestive

the sudan demand for international reserve a case of a labour exporting country an empirical analysis of the demand for international reserves in the sudan is presented based on the error correction model this model is parametrically rich enough to allow the division of the effects into long run influences short term adjustments and proportional equilibrium impacts beside addressing conventional issues in reserve demand literature the model explicitly incorporates the impact on reserve demand of remittances transferred by sudanese nationals working abroad and the impact due to money market disequilibrium the demand function is found to be stable and characterized by constant returns to scale copyright 1990 by the london school of economics and political science

carbon dioxide emissions and economic growth panel data evidence from developing countries in this paper we test the environment kuznet s curve ekc hypothesis for 43 developing countries we suggest examining the ekc hypothesis based on the short and long run income elasticities that is if the long run income elasticity is smaller than the short run income elasticity then it is evident that a country has reduced carbon dioxide emissions as its income has increased our empirical analysis based on individual countries suggests that jordan iraq kuwait yemen qatar the uae argentina mexico venezuela algeria kenya nigeria congo ghana and south africa approximately 35 per cent of the sample carbon dioxide emissions have fallen over the long run that is as these economies have grown emissions have fallen since the long run income elasticity is smaller than the short run elasticity we also examine the ekc hypothesis for panels of countries constructed on the basis of regional location using the panel cointegration and the panel long run estimation techniques we find that only for the middle eastern and south asian panels the income elasticity in the long run is smaller than the short run implying that carbon dioxide emission has fallen with a rise in income

economic development and co2 emissions a nonparametric panel approach we examine the empirical relation between co2 emissions per capita and gdp per capita during the period 1960 1996 using a panel of 100 countries relying on the nonparametric poolability test of baltagi et al baltagi b h hidalgo j li q 1996 a nonparametric test for poolability using panel data journal of econometrics 75 345 367 we find evidence of structural stability of the relationship we then specify a nonparametric panel data model with country specific effects estimation results show that this relationship is upward sloping nonparametric specification tests do not reject monotonicity but do reject the polynomial functional form which leads to the environmental kuznets curve in several studies

co2 emissions a quantitative analysis among the brics nations abstract this study aims to examine the volume of carbon dioxide co2 emissions by lag of the emissions and by the gross domestic product gdp for the brics brazil russia india china and south africa countries from 1980 to 2011 due to the heterogeneity of co2 emission among the brics countries we organized the countries into two groups in group 1 brazil and russia we identified that the main causes of the variation of co2 emission in time t are the emission of co2 in time t 1 and the annual gdp of the country in group 2 china india and south africa the findings do not depend on the income level of individual countries but only from the emission of co2 in the lag period therefore the main contribution of this study is that the environmental consequences of growing economic activity may be very mixed and must be examined on a case by case basis

stoking the fires co2 emissions and economic growth abstract we examine the relationship between economic development and carbon dioxide emissions a greenhouse gas central to global warming predictions estimates derived from global panel data suggest a diminishing marginal propensity to emit mpe carbon dioxide as gdp per capita rises despite this global carbon dioxide emissions growth will continue at 1 8 percent per annum for the foreseeable future a result that is not sensitive to average output growth instead emissions growth continues because output and population will grow most rapidly in lower income nations with high mpes this latter feature emphasizes the distributional consequences of policies to reduce emissions

economic growth co2 emissions and energy consumption what causes what and where abstract this paper applies panel vector autoregression pvar along with a system generalized method of moment system gmm to examine the dynamic causal relationship between economic growth carbon emissions and energy consumption for 116 countries over the period 1990 2014 using multivariate model the empirical results from this study have established key relationships which have important policy implications first at the global and regional levels economic growth does not cause energy consumption second with the exception of the global and caribbean latin america economic growth has no causal impact on carbon emissions however economic growth has a negative impact on carbon emissions at the global level and the caribbean latin america third carbon emissions positively cause economic growth fourth energy consumption positively causes economic growth in sub saharan africa while it negatively causes economic growth at the global middle east and north africa mena asia pacific and caribbean latin america fifth energy consumption positively causes carbon emissions in mena but causes carbon emissions negatively in sub saharan africa and caribbean latin america lastly with the exception of mena and the global sample carbon emissions do not cause energy consumption the impulse response function shows evidence of environmental kuznets curve at the global scale and sub saharan africa the policy implications of this paper are discussed

the growth of income and energy consumption in six developing countries this paper reexamines the inter temporal link between energy consumption and income in six developing countries with diverse economic backgrounds and energy statistics in a production function framework we employ the generalized variance decompositions and generalized impulse response techniques to see if the growth of income and energy consumption contains considerable information to predict each other in all countries energy appears as an essential factor of production results indicate that energy may be a relatively more important input than labor and or capital in some countries hence neutrality of energy does not seem to hold

inequality leverage and crises the paper studies how high leverage and crises can arise as a result of changes in the income distribution empirically the periods 1920 1929 and 1983 2007 both exhibited a large increase in the income share of the rich a large increase in leverage for the remainder and an eventual financial and real crisis the paper presents a theoretical model where these features arise endogenously as a result of a shift in bargaining powers over incomes a financial crisis can reduce leverage if it is very large and not accompanied by a real contraction but restoration of the lower income group s bargaining power is more effective

did inequality cause the u s financial crisis in his widely discussed book fault lines 2010 raghuram rajan argues that many low and middle income consumers have reduced their saving and increased debt since income inequality started to soar in the united states in the early 1980s this has temporarily kept private consumption and employment high but it also contributed to the creation of a credit bubble this surge in household indebtedness turned out to be unsustainable in the financial crisis starting in 2007 although rajan and others emphasize the role of government in promoting credit to those households with declining relative permanent incomes other strands of the literature have focused more explicitly on the implications of rising inequality for aggregate demand and households demand for credit these differences in emphasis may explain why the literature on the inequality crisis nexus appears somewhat disparate even though the various strands are far from mutually exclusive but rather complement each other we therefore place the rajan hypothesis in the context of competing theories of consumption and survey the empirical literature on the effects of inequality on household behaviour we conclude that the empirical evidence calls for a renaissance of the relative income hypothesis of consumption

house prices and credit constraints making sense of the us experience most us house price models break down in the mid 2000s due to the omission of exogenous changes in mortgage credit supply associated with the sub prime mortgage boom from house price to rent ratio and inverted housing demand models previous models lack data on credit constraints facing first time home buyers incorporating a measure of credit conditions the cyclically adjusted loan to value ratio for first time buyers into house price to rent ratio models yields stable long run relationships more precisely estimated effects reasonable speeds of adjustment and improved model fits

energy consumption and economic growth evidence from china at both aggregated and disaggregated levels using a neo classical aggregate production model where capital labor and energy are treated as separate inputs this paper tests for the existence and direction of causality between output growth and energy use in china at both aggregated total energy and disaggregated levels as coal oil and electricity consumption using the johansen cointegration technique the empirical findings indicate that there exists long run cointegration among output labor capital and energy use in china at both aggregated and all three disaggregated levels then using a vec specification the short run dynamics of the interested variables are tested indicating that there exists granger causality running from electricity and oil consumption to gdp but does not exist granger causality running from coal and total energy consumption to gdp on the other hand short run granger causality exists from gdp to total energy coal and oil consumption but does not exist from gdp to electricity consumption we thus propose policy suggestions to solve the energy and sustainable development dilemma in china as enhancing energy supply security and guaranteeing energy supply especially in the short run to provide adequate electric power supply and set up national strategic oil reserve enhancing energy efficiency to save energy diversifying energy sources energetically exploiting renewable energy and drawing out corresponding policies and measures and finally in the long run transforming development pattern and cut reliance on resource and energy dependent industries

the environmental kuznets curve ekc theory part a concept causes and the co2 emissions case abstract the main purpose of this study is to capture the main features of the environmental kuznets curve ekc concept according to the ekc theory the process of economic growth is expected eventually to limit the environmental degradation created in the early stages of development the ekc concept leads many researchers from the early 1990s to assume that each economy should focus on its growth and any environmental problems will be eventually eliminated by the process of economic growth several studies attempt to test empirically the ekc hypothesis using data on many countries and examining various types of environmental degradation while other studies examine the underlying factors that may drive such a relationship this article reviews the evolution of the ekc concept and the possible causes of an ekc pattern like the distribution of income the international trade pollution haven hypothesis structural changes technical progress and improvements in energy efficiency institutions and governance and consumer preferences as co2 emissions are a pollutant with global effects several studies deal with the possible ekc pattern for co2 emissions and these studies are discussed separately the various critiques on the ekc concept are reviewed in the second article of this work

applying the seasonal error correction model to the demand for international reserves in taiwan abstract a dynamic demand function for international reserves based on the seasonal difference is derived our model of using seasonal difference distinguishes the present study from previous studies in three aspects first the dependent variable is seasonally differenced instead of being first order differenced next the local money market disequilibrium included is also in fourth difference form finally given the existence of stochastic seasonality a new model using a seasonal error correction rather than the conventional error correction is specified and estimated based on this new specification the results yielded are more sensible than those of using a differenced model

the effects of electricity consumption economic growth financial development and foreign direct investment on co2 emissions in kuwait abstract this study examined the empirical effects of economic growth electricity consumption foreign direct investment fdi and financial development on carbon dioxide co2 emissions in kuwait using time series data for the period 1980 2013 to achieve this goal we applied the autoregressive distributed lag ardl bounds testing approach and found that cointegration exists among the series findings indicate that economic growth electricity consumption and fdi stimulate co2 emissions in both the short and long run the vecm granger causality analysis revealed that fdi economic growth and electricity consumption strongly granger cause co2 emissions based on these findings the study recommends that kuwait reduce emissions by expanding its existing carbon capture utilization and storage plants capitalizing on its vast solar and wind energy reducing high subsidies of the residential electricity scheme and aggressively investing in energy research to build expertise for achieving electricity generation efficiency

austria s demand for international reserves and monetary disequilibrium the case of a small open economy with a fixed exchange rate regime using a vector error correction approach i estimate austria s demand for international reserves over the period 1985 1 1997 4 and test for short run effects of the disequilibrium on the national monetary market i find that austria s long run reserve demand can be described as a stable function of imports uncertainty and the opportunity cost of holding reserves with strong economies of scale the speed of adjustment takes a value of 38 per cent the results confirm that an excess of money demand supply induces an inflow outflow of international reserves as postulated by the monetary approach to the balance of payments

economic growth and environmental degradation the environmental kuznets curve and sustainable development abstract in this paper we critically examine the concept of the environmental kuznets curve ekc it proposes that there is an inverted u shape relation between environmental degradation and income per capita so that eventually growth reduces the environmental impact of economic activity the concept is dependent on a model of the economy in which there is no feedback from the quality of the environment to production possibilities and in which trade has a neutral effect on environmental degradation the actual violation of these assumptions gives rise to fundamental problems in estimating the parameters of an ekc the paper identifies other econometric problems with estimates of the ekc and reviews a number of empirical studies the inference from some such ekc estimates that further development will reduce environmental degradation is dependent on the assumption that world per capita income is normally distributed when in fact median income is far below mean income we carry out simulations combining ekc estimates from the literature with world bank forecasts for economic growth for individual countries aggregating over countries to derive the global impact within the horizon of the bank s forecast 2025 global emissions of so 2 continue to increase forest loss stabilizes before the end of the period but tropical deforestation continues at a constant rate throughout the period

co2 emissions energy consumption and economic growth in turkey abstract this paper examines the long run and causal relationship issues between economic growth carbon emissions energy consumption and employment ratio in turkey by using autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing approach of cointegration empirical results for turkey over the period 1968 2005 suggest an evidence of a long run relationship between the variables at 5 significance level in turkey the estimated income elasticity of carbon emissions per capita is 0 606 and the income elasticity of energy consumption per capita is 1 375 results for the existence and direction of granger causality show that neither carbon emissions per capita nor energy consumption per capita cause real gdp per capita but employment ratio causes real gdp per capita in the short run in addition ekc hypothesis at causal framework by using a linear logarithmic model is not valid in turkish case the overall results indicates that energy conservation policies such as rationing energy consumption and controlling carbon dioxide emissions are likely to have no adverse effect on the real output growth of turkey

why the subprime crisis is different a minskyian approach minsky s financial instability model suggests that financial crises can be resolved efficiently with lender of last resort and big government interventions the crisis that began in 2007 hereafter the 2007 crisis has been different it has been more profound and resistant to policy interventions this paper examines why our approach is to expand minsky s balance sheet approach in several ways first we incorporate two factors minsky missed because he built his model in the 1970s the impact of racial exclusion and u s cross border imbalances on u s financial dynamics in addition we draw out the analytical implications of the systematic differences between banks and non banks balance sheets minsky didn t do this but because of the transformation of banking after 1980 these differences have become deeply significant one key effect of so doing is to see that asset liability balances as well as cash flows are crucial in financial dynamics this paper concludes that the 2007 crisis has been so profound and unresponsive to policy intervention for several reasons banks no longer bear as well as originate credit risk banks made exploitative loans to minority borrowers and then generalized these loans as housing prices rose and subprime homeowners and structured investment vehicles became more leveraged than banks copyright the author 2009 published by oxford university press on behalf of the cambridge political economy society all rights reserved oxford university press

the determinants of atmospheric so2 concentrations reconsidering the environmental kuznets curve this analysis explores the effects of income and the spatial intensity of economic activity on the atmospheric concentration of sulfur dioxide the results indicate that there is a u shaped relation between income and atmospheric concentration of so2 and an inverted u shaped relation between the spatial intensity of economic activity and so2 concentrations these results suggest that the spatial intensity of economic activity rather than income provides the impetus for policies and technologies that reduce so2 emissions based on this result the atmospheric concentration of so2 in developing nations may decline faster than indicated by previous analyses the potential for this decline depends on the rate at which income grows relative to population the trade off between the effects of income gains and the spatial intensity of economic activity on the atmospheric concentration of so2 is consistent with the notion that some environmental problems can be ameliorated by slowing population growth and increasing income levels

environmental kuznets curve for co2 in canada abstract according to the environmental kuznets curve hypothesis the relationship between per capita gdp and per capita pollutant emissions has an inverted u shape this implies that past a certain point economic growth may actually be profitable for environmental quality most studies on this subject are based on estimating fully parametric quadratic or cubic regression models while this is not technically wrong such an approach somewhat lacks flexibility since it may fail to detect the true shape of the relationship if it happens not to be of the specified form we use semiparametric and flexible nonlinear parametric modeling methods in an attempt to provide more robust inferences we find little evidence in favour of the environmental kuznets curve hypothesis our main results could be interpreted as indicating that the oil shock of the 1970s has had an important impact on progress towards less polluting technology and production

does financial development mitigate carbon emissions evidence from heterogeneous financial economies abstract in this paper we investigate the impact of financial market development on carbon emission intensity taking into account the various stages of financial development among countries utilising the instrumental variable generalised method of moment approach and a comprehensive panel dataset of a total of 83 countries over the period 1980 2015 we show that the overall financial market development and its sub measures such as financial market depth and efficiency reduce carbon emission intensity in the developed and emerging financial economies however an opposing effect is found in the frontier financial economies for standalone financial economies the results show that the overall financial market development and its sub indicators have no direct impact on carbon emission intensity finally the non linear and the moderating effects of financial market development on carbon emission intensity differ across countries at different stages of financial development the policy implications are also discussed

getting at systemic risk via an agent based model of the housing market systemic risk must include the housing market though economists have not generally focused on it we begin construction of an agent based model of the housing market with individual data from washington dc twenty years of success with agent based models of mortgage prepayments give us hope that such a model could be useful preliminary analysis suggests that the housing boom and bust of 1997 2007 was due in large part to changes in leverage rather than interest rates

co2 emissions energy consumption trade and income a comparative analysis of china and india in order to prevent the destabilisation of the earth s biosphere co2 emissions must be reduced quickly and significantly the causes of co2 emissions by individual countries need to be apprehended in order to understand the processes required for reducing emissions around the globe china and india are the two largest transitional countries and growing economies but are in two entirely different categories in terms of structural changes in growth trade and energy use co2 emissions from the burning of fossil fuels have significantly increased in the recent past this paper compares china and india using the bounds testing approach to cointegration and the ardl methodology to test the long and short run relationships between growth trade energy use and endogenously determined structural breaks the co2 emissions in china were influenced by per capita income structural changes and energy consumption a similar causal connection cannot be established for india with regard to structural changes and co2 emissions because india s informal economy is much larger than china s india possesses an extraordinarily large number of micro enterprises that are low energy consumers and not competitive enough to reach international markets understanding these contrasting scenarios is prerequisite to reaching an international agreement on climate change affecting these two countries

income distribution credit and fiscal policies in an agent based keynesian model this work studies the interactions between income distribution and monetary and fiscal policies in terms of ensuing dynamics of macro variables gdp growth unemployment etc on the grounds of an agent based keynesian model the direct ancestor of this work is the keynes meeting schumpeter formalism presented in dosi et al 2010 to that model we add a banking sector and a monetary authority setting interest rates and credit lending conditions the model combines keynesian mechanisms of demand generation a schumpeterian innovation fueled process of growth and minskian credit dynamics the robustness of the model is checked against its capability to jointly account for a large set of empirical regularities both at the micro level and at the macro one the model is able to catch salient features underlying the current as well as previous recessions the impact of financial factors and the role in them of income distribution we find that different income distribution regimes heavily affect macroeconomic performance more unequal economies are exposed to more severe business cycles fluctuations higher unemployment rates and higher probability of crises on the policy side fiscal policies do not only dampen business cycles reduce unemployment and the likelihood of experiencing a huge crisis in some circumstances they also affect positively long term growth further the more income distribution is skewed toward profits the greater the effects of fiscal policies about monetary policy we find a strong non linearity in the way interest rates affect macroeconomic dynamics in one regime with low rates changes in interest rates are ineffective up to a threshold beyond which increasing the interest rate implies smaller output growth rates and larger output volatility unemployment and likelihood of crises

is the income elasticity of environmental improvements less than one we estimated the income elasticity of environmental improvements for a number of european data sets the value of this parameter is consistently found to be less than one with few exceptions our findings are compared with state of the art contingent valuation studies from other countries we also compared our findings with those reported in the literature on charitable donations and corporate donations these studies show a similar pattern donations decrease as a percentage of income as income increases

inequality household debt and financial instability an agent based perspective abstract our paper contributes to the literature on the causes of the 2007 2008 financial crisis in the united states by means of an agent based model we replicate an artificial credit network economy in order to assess the impact of growing income inequality in the presence of peer effects and home equity borrowing we show that the resulting debt financed consumption boom jeopardises the stability of the economic system thus paving the way for a financial crisis our model includes a behavioural rule for consumption based on expenditure cascades a hierarchical structure of household finance an articulated credit market with collateralised consumption loans and mortgages and a simple housing market results show that the model is able to capture the economic and social pressure of inequality on low and middle income households that pushes them to increase their consumption via home equity extraction rising non performing loans lead to higher bad debt on the banks balance sheets and consequently to the emergence of a crisis as an endogenous dynamic

urbanization economic growth energy consumption and co2 emissions empirical evidence from countries with different income levels abstract the growth of anthropogenic co2 emissions has been widely attributed to the combustion of energy in support of human activities associated with economic development while the link between urbanization economic growth energy consumption and co2 emissions has as a result received considerable multidisciplinary scholarly attention little work has been undertaken with respect to the how differences in the development stages or income levels of the countries studied may affect these relations here we empirically explore the link between urbanization economic development energy consumption and co2 emissions specifically taking into account the different income levels of the countries studied a series of panel data models and a balanced dataset for a panel of 170 countries were utilized in the study which took the period of 1980 2011 into consideration the result of panel cointegration tests suggested that a cointegration relationship existed between variables in all the countries studied and that a statistically significant positive relationship existed between the variables employed in the long run the results of a granger causality test based on the vector error correction model vecm provided evidence of varied granger causality relationships between the variables across the income based subpanels moreover we also undertook an impulse response and variance decomposition analysis that allowed us to forecast the impacts of economic growth urbanization and energy consumption on future co2 emissions during the period surveyed our results cast a new light on the importance of a country s development stage and income level for government policy decisions relating to the reduction of co2 emissions

a macroprudential approach to financial regulation many observers have argued that the regulatory framework in place prior to the global financial crisis was deficient because it was largely microprudential in nature a microprudential approach is one in which regulation is partial equilibrium in its conception and aimed at preventing the costly failure of individual financial institutions by contrast a macroprudential approach recognizes the importance of general equilibrium effects and seeks to safeguard the financial system as a whole in the aftermath of the crisis there seems to be agreement among both academics and policymakers that financial regulation needs to move in a macroprudential direction in this paper we offer a detailed vision for how a macroprudential regime might be designed our prescriptions follow from a specific theory of how modern financial crises unfold and why both an unregulated financial system as well as one based on capital rules that only apply to traditional banks is likely to be fragile we begin by identifying the key market failures at work why individual financial firms acting in their own interests deviate from what a social planner would have them do next we discuss a number of concrete steps to remedy these market failures we conclude the paper by comparing our proposals to recent regulatory reforms in the united states and to proposed global banking reforms

economic models for the environmental kuznets curve a survey abstract the environmental kuznets curve ekc refers to an inverted u shaped relationship between some pollutant level and per capita income i e the environmental quality deteriorates at early stages of economic growth and subsequently improves at a later stage since the early 1990s a considerable number of empirical studies have been conducted on the ekc and although there is no conclusive proof it has been recognized that the ekc emerges as an empirical regularity however some recent studies cast doubt on the concept and methodology of empirical results and evidence of the existence of the ekc has been questioned in fact how economic growth affects the environmental quality i e the shape of the ekc is still controversial in order to identify the actual relationship between the environmental quality and economic growth it is essential to develop economic models from various points of view this paper overviews the current stage of theoretical models that explain such relationship

the square root law uncertainty and international reserves under alternative regimes canadian experience 1950 1976 abstract a transactions precautionary model of demand for international reserves is developed and tested against canadian data the results indicate that i the demand for reserves is characterized by economies of scale with respect to the volume of transactions that are invariant to the exchange rate regime but ii structural change took the form of a relatively larger responsiveness of reserves holdings under fixed rates to a measure of permanent variability in transactions

economic growth trade and energy implications for the environmental kuznets curve abstract the environmental kuznets curve ekc hypothesis asserts that pollution follows an inverted u path with respect to economic growth the ekc has been explained in terms of structural changes in the composition of economic output and increased environmental regulation at higher income levels while some authors have incorporated the impact of trade policy orientation on the ekc the impact of the actual movement between countries of goods that embody pollution has not been considered this paper attempts to econometrically quantify the effect using pooled cross country and time series data the ekc hypothesis is examined with respect to commercial energy consumption the source of many serious environmental problems it was found that while both industrializing and industrialized countries have added to their energy requirements by exporting manufactured goods the growth has been substantially higher in the former at the same time industrialized countries have been able to reduce their energy requirements by importing manufactured goods exports of manufactured goods by industrialized countries has thus been an important factor in generating the upward sloping portion of the ekc and imports by industrialized countries have contributed to the downward slope

on the effect of opportunity cost on international reserve holdings the opportunity cost of holding international reserves plays a central role in all models of optimal demand for foreign exchange this cost is conventionally defined as the difference between the yield on reserves and the marginal productivity forgone from an alternative investment in fixed capital most empirical studies have failed to find a significant opportunity cost effect since none of them measure it in accordance with its theoretical definition the results for israel show that when this cost is measured properly it turns out to be a crucial determinant of reserve demand copyright 1992 by mit press

income and emission a panel data based cointegration analysis this paper presents the results of an investigation of the causality issue of incomeemission relationship based on time series econometric techniques of unit root test cointegration and related error correction model for a panel data set here the nature of causality between per capita co2 emission pcco2 and per capita gdp pcgdp has been examined using a cross country panel data set covering 88 countries for the period 1960 90 using the panel unit root test procedure of im et al 1997 ips we have found that the hypothesis of unit root i e non stationarity of the time series of pcgdp and pcco2 can not be rejected for individual country groups as both the variables are found to follow i 1 process we next have performed the panel data co integration test and finally we have estimated the ecm for these country groups for which significant income emission cointegration was obtained to explore the nature of dynamics implicit in the given panel data set our findings suggest that there is more or less a bi directional causal relationship between income pcgdp and co2 emission pcco2 for africa central america america as a whole eastern europe western europe europe as a whole and the world as a whole that means the movement of the one variable directly affects the other variable through a feedback system thus the policy makers should be cautious to make proper decision about the control of emission level

estimating country specific environmental kuznets curves from panel data a bayesian shrinkage approach designing an efficient global climate policy turns out to be a difficult yet crucial task since there are noteworthy cross country differences in energy and carbon intensities in this article the environmental kuznets curve ekc hypothesis is tested for carbon dioxide co2 emissions and as a modelling technique the iterative bayesian shrinkage procedure is employed to handle the cross country differences the results suggest that first the ekc hypothesis is rejected for 47 out of the 51 countries considered when the heterogeneity in countries energy efficiencies and cross country differences in the co2 emissions trajectories are accounted for second a classification of the results with respect to the development levels of the countries concerned reveals that the emergence of an overall inverted u shaped curve is due to the fact that in high income countries increase in gross domestic product gdp decreases emissions while in low income countries emissions and gdp are positively correlated

the financial accelerator in an evolving credit network we model a credit network characterized by credit relationships connecting i downstream d and upstream u firms and ii firms and banks the net worth of d firms is the driver of fluctuations the production of d firms and of their suppliers u firms in fact is constrained by the availability of internal finance proxied by net worth to the d firms the structure of credit interlinkages changes over time due to an endogeneous process of partner selection which leads to the polarization of the network at the aggregate level the distribution of growth rates exhibits negative skewness and excess kurtosis when a shock hits the macroeconomy or a significant group of agents in the credit network a bankruptcy avalanche can follow if agents leverage is critically high in a nutshell we want to explore the properties of a network based financial accelerator

environmental degradation in france the effects of fdi financial development and energy innovations abstract this paper explores the determinants of carbon emissions in france by accounting for the significant role played by foreign direct investment fdi financial development economic growth energy consumption and energy research innovations in influencing co 2 emissions function in this endeavour we employ the novel sor shahbaz et al 2017 unit root test on french time series data over the period 1955 2016 to examine the order of integration in the presence of sharp and smooth structural breaks in the variables we also apply the bootstrapping bounds testing approach recently developed by mcnown et al 2018 to investigate the presence of cointegration and the empirical findings underscore the presence of cointegration among the time series moreover we find that fdi has a positive impact while energy research innovations have a negative impact on french carbon emissions financial development lowers carbon emissions thereby improving the french environmental quality fdi degrades the environment and thus supports the pollution haven hypothesis in france similarly financial development suggests that financial stability is a required condition for improving environmental quality so are energy research innovations contrarily energy consumption is positively linked with carbon emissions however the relationship between economic growth and co 2 emissions is an inverted u which is a validation of the environmental kuznets curve ekc

economic growth and energy consumption revisited evidence from linear and nonlinear granger causality the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth is considered as an imperative issue in energy economics previous studies have ignored the nonlinear behavior which could be caused by structural breaks in this study both linear and nonlinear granger causality tests are applied to examine the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth for a sample of asian newly industrialized countries as well as the u s this study finds evidence supporting a neutrality hypothesis for the united states thailand and south korea however empirical evidence on philippines and singapore reveals a unidirectional causality running from economic growth to energy consumption while energy consumption may have affected economic growth for taiwan hong kong malaysia and indonesia policy implications are also discussed

economic growth energy and environmental kuznets curve the aim of this study is to investigate the relationship between income and carbon dioxide co2 emissions in the context of the environmental kuznets curve ekc which posits the existence of an inverted u shape relationship between environmental degradation and economic development for this purpose two empirical models are examined for both models the relationship between per capita income and per capita co2 emissions and the relationship among per capita income per capita energy use and per capita co2 emissions are analyzed respectively between 1980 and 2010 using the panel data estimation techniques with the application of driscoll kraay standard errors yet for the first model data are analyzed for 26 oecd countries with high income levels while for the second model data are examined for 52 emerging countries the results of both models show that n shape and an inverted n shape relationship for cubic functional form are observed thus the results do not support the ekc hypothesis which implies that environmental degradation cannot be solved automatically by economic growth

searching for a kuznets curve in environmental efficiency using kernel estimation abstract the paper constructs environmental efficiency indexes for a sample consisting of high and low income countries using nonparametric production frontier techniques and then establishes an environmental kuznets relationship for environmental efficiency by nadaraya watson kernel estimation methodology

energy consumption pollutant emissions and economic growth in south africa article i nfo article history this paper examines the long run and the causal relationship between economic growth pollutant emissions and energy consumption for south africa for the period 1965 2006 in a multivariate framework which includes labour and capital as additional variables using the bound test approach to cointegration we found a short run as well as a long run relationship among the variables with a positive and a statistically significant relationship between pollutant emissions and economic growth further applying a modified version of the granger causality test we also found a unidirectional causality running from pollutant emissions to economic growth from energy consumption to economic growth and from energy consumption to co2 emissions all without a feedback the econometric evidence suggests that south africa has to sacrifice economic growth or reduce its energy consumption per unit of output or both in order to reduce pollutant emissions in the long run however it is possible to meet the energy needs of the country and at the same time reduce co2 emissions by developing energy alternatives to coal the main source of co2 emissions however the econometric results upon which the policy suggestions are made should be interpreted with care as they may not be sufficiently robust enough to categorically warrant the choice of an unpalatable policy option by south africa

energy income causality in oecd countries revisited the key role of capital stock abstract this paper applies a recent advance in panel analysis to estimate the panel cointegration and panel vector error correction models for a set of 22 oecd countries using annual data covering the period 1960 2001 we investigate the relationship between energy consumption and income using an aggregate production function and controlling for the capital stock as well as by exploring the dynamic directions of the causality among these three variables we firstly obtain solid and convincing evidence of a fairly strong long run equilibrium relationship among them secondly it is found that the capital stock is much more productive than energy consumption third it is observed that neglecting the impact of the capital stock on income tends to overestimate the effect of energy consumption finally the panel causality test shows bi directional causal linkages exist among energy consumption the capital stock and economic growth overall the findings reveal that the capital stock plays a critical role in realizing the dynamic relationship between energy and income

a further inquiry into the pollution haven hypothesis and the environmental kuznets curve abstract empirical research on the relationship between economic growth and its impact on the environment often tests the environmental kuznets curve ekc a hypothesis that rising national output leads to increases in pollution emissions until an economy reaches a certain size and decreases thereafter this paper addresses a branch of ekc literature focused on the role international trade plays in shaping this relationship in particular we test the pollution haven hypothesis which posits that emission reductions observed in developed nations are partly the result of shifting dirty production to developing nations with lax environmental standards we estimate ekcs for seven oft studied pollutants and find little evidence that pollution havens play a significant role in shaping the ekc we also find that confidence intervals around ekc turning points are very wide often including values well above the range of the data this leads us to be skeptical of the optimistic view that economic growth naturally leads to improvements in environmental quality

demand for international reserves and exchange rate intervention policy in an adjustable peg economy abstract this paper develops and estimates a model of the joint determination of the official and black market exchange rates private and government demand for international reserves and the rate of inflation under an adjustable peg system the framework presented combines and extends aspects of the monetary approach to the balance of payments and exchange rate determination with the theory of the demand for international reserves the role of expectations about devaluation is taken into account the model is estimated by full information maximum likelihood on the basis of quarterly data for turkey

renewable energy carbon emission and economic growth a revised environmental kuznets curve perspective abstract renewable energy plays an important role in reducing global carbon co2 emission this paper builds a rer renewable energy consumption rate index to represent the energy structure of a country and proposes a u shaped rkc renewable energy kuznets curve hypothesis between rer and economic growth we also examine the dynamic relationship between rer and the environmental kuznets curve ekc hypothesis using two panel data sets of 17 major developing and developed countries as well as six geo economic regions of the world during 1990 2014 panel co integration tests indicate that a long run relationship exists among economic growth rer and carbon emission we employ the fully modified ordinary least squares fmols and the dynamic ordinary least squares dols techniques to estimate the co integration coefficients of the panels and individual countries regions respectively the results verify both the ekc and rkc hypotheses indicating that a 10 rise in rer would to a 1 6 carbon emission reduction it is also found that the rkc turning points of individual countries and the entire samples in general take place before the turning points of the respective ekcs it suggests that promoting renewable energy consumption to make rkc cross its turning point earlier can accelerate ekc to reach its turning point more quickly this finding has important policy implications with respect to the development and utilization of renewable energy and environmental protection

collapsing exchange rate regimes some linear examples abstract we construct a pair of linear examples to study the collapse time of a fixed exchange rate regime the first example is a perfect foresight continuous time model which allows calculation of the exact collapse time and the tracking of reserves the second example is a discrete time stochastic model which yields an endogenous probability distribution over the collapse time and produces a forward discount of the exchange rate

taking the u out of kuznets a comprehensive analysis of the ekc and environmental degradation unlike most environmental kuznets curve ekc studies which focus on narrow measures of pollution as proxies for environmental quality we test the validity of the ekc using the ecological footprint ef a more comprehensive measure of environmental degradation we find no empirical evidence of an ekc relationship between the ef and economic development and only limited support for such a relationship among the components of the ef in addition we discover that energy is largely responsible for the lack of an ekc relationship and that energy consumption levels would have to be cut by over 50 in order for a statistically significant ekc relationship to emerge from the data overall these results suggest that growth alone will not lead to sustainable development

between scylla and charybdis income distribution consumer credit and business cycles we introduce a macroeconomic model with heterogeneous households and an aggregate banking sector in order to analyze the impact of rising income inequality under different credit scenarios growing inequality produces debt led consumption boom dynamics when the banking sector is characterized by a lower capital requirement and a higher willingness to lend instead when inequality rises but the banking sector is highly regulated aggregate demand and output fall our results also yield new insights on the appropriate fiscal policy reaction to stabilize the economy acting on the progressivity of the tax system seems more effective than a proactive countercyclical fiscal policy jel c63 d31 e62 g01

coal consumption urbanization and trade openness linkage in indonesia abstract this paper explores the effects of economic growth urbanization industry and trade openness on coal consumption in indonesia over the period 1970 2015 to closely adhere to the environmental kuznets curve narratives we consider coal consumption which has been scarcely explored in the ekc debate as a proxy of environmental pressure we estimate the autoregressive distributed lag ardl method and confirm that the variables are cointegrated for long run linkage with the presence of structural breaks the empirical evidence showed that economic growth urbanization and trade openness increase coal consumption while decreasing share of secondary industry reduce it we also verify the existence of environmental kuznets curve having a vital role in the energy mix indonesia needs to restrain excessive coal consumption to enhance environmental quality our results also imply urbanization and trade openness are crucial factors on coal consumption consequently it should be taken into consideration in energy policy making process such as energy conservation policies in the residential sector and prioritize foreign investment which brings cutting edge coal technologies

income inequality consumption credit and credit risk in a data driven agent based model abstract the issue of income inequality occupies a prominent position in the research agenda of academic and policy circles alike especially after the crisis of 2008 due to its potential causal link with the development of credit bubbles and therefore the emergence of financial crises this paper examines the long run effect of income inequality on consumption consumer credit and non performing loans through the means of a data driven agent based model the data driven nature of the model enhances its ability to match historical series and thus makes it suitable for policy simulations tailored for specific economies the analysis indicates that higher income inequality has a detrimental impact on consumption and is associated with lower volumes of consumer credit however the ratio of non performing loans as a share of total loans seems to be independent of income inequality

energy consumption income and carbon emissions in the united states abstract this paper investigates the effect of energy consumption and output on carbon emissions in the united states earlier research focused on testing the existence and or shape of an environmental kuznets curve without taking energy consumption into account we investigate the granger causality relationship between income energy consumption and carbon emissions including labor and gross fixed capital formation in the model we find that income does not granger cause carbon emissions in the us in the long run but energy use does hence income growth by itself may not become a solution to environmental problems

energy consumption economic growth and carbon emissions challenges faced by an eu candidate member abstract this paper investigates the long run granger causality relationship between economic growth carbon dioxide emissions and energy consumption in turkey controlling for gross fixed capital formation and labor the most interesting result is that carbon emissions seem to granger cause energy consumption but the reverse is not true the lack of a long run causal link between income and emissions may be implying that to reduce carbon emissions turkey does not have to forgo economic growth

revisiting the relation between economic growth and the environment a global assessment of deforestation pollution and carbon emission abstract the un s sustainable development goals for 2030 aim on one hand at inclusive growth and eradicating poverty and on the other at preserving environments the relation between development and the environment has been studied extensively since the 1990s documenting inverted u shaped relations between per capita income and indicators of environmental degradation this paper revisits the issue with machine learning techniques and novel disaggregate data to model these relationships heterogeneously across economic indicators results suggest that development gradually improves the efficiency of consuming the earth s nonrenewable resources but increased efficiency alone is not sufficient to offset growth in scale development shifts reliance on one nonrenewable source to another and on average we find successive inverted u shapes in deforestation air pollution and carbon intensities followed by a j shape in per capita carbon output local economic circumstances further determine the shape amplitude and location of tipping points in environmental output the general implications of the estimated dynamics are explored by extrapolating environmental output to 2030 under simplistic scenario s the results are a reminder that immediate and sustained global efforts are required to preserve our environment