option value empirical evidence from a case study of recreation and water quality a procedure for measuring option value and other preservation values of water quality is developed and applied to a case study area in the south platte river basin colorado benefits from water based recreation activities are the focus of the study the results provide an empirical test and confirmation of weisbrod s proposal that option value and other preservation values represent important social benefits and should be added to the aggregate consumer surplus of recreation activities to determine the total benefit of environmental amenities to society in the absence of such an estimate insufficient resources would be allocated by society to preservation of unique environments such as pristine mountain streams where mineral and energy development may irreversibly degrade water quality

how might nature value man abstract while much time and effort is spent attempting to quantify environmental services for inclusion in the economic system no one seems to ask how nature might value us an ecological accounting process is devised to accommodate ecosystem flows allowing for the computation of ecological prices and leading to the calculation of net ecosystem output and the efficiency of its production the process is somewhat similar to economic accounting but allows us to consider the ecosystem as open conforming to thermodynamic laws examples such as intervention to reduce soil erosion illustrate how humans might be appreciated by the ecosystem in some instances the net output might be higher with some human presence than with no human presence

stochastic convenience yield and the pricing of oil contingent claims this paper develops and empirically tests a two factor model for pricing financial and real assets contingent on the price of oil the factors are the spot price of oil and the instantaneous convenience yield the parameters of the model are estimated using weekly oil futures contract prices from january 1984 to november 1988 and the model s performance is assessed out of sample by valuing futures contracts over the period november 1988 to may 1989 finally the model is applied to determine the present values of one barrel of oil deliverable in one to ten years time

evaluating natural resource investments notwithstanding impressive advances in the theory of finance over the past 2 decades practical procedures for capital budgeting have evolved only slowly the standard technique which has remained unchanged in essentials since it was originally proposed see dean 1951 bierman and smidt 1960 derives from a simple adaptation of the fisher 1907 model of valuation under certainty under this technique expected cash flows from an investment project are discounted at a rate deemed appropriate to their risk and the resulting present value is compared with the cost of the project this standard textbook technique reflects modern theoretical developments only insofar as estimates of the discount rate may be obtained from crude application of single period asset pricing theory but see brennan 1973 bogue and roll 1974 turnbull 1977 constantinides 1978 the inadequacy of this approach to capital budgeting is widely acknowledged although not widely discussed its obvious deficiency is its the evaluation of mining and other natural resource projects is made particularly difficult by the high degree of uncertainty attaching to output prices it is shown that the techniques of continuous time arbitrage and stochastic control theory may be used not only to value such projects but also to determine the optimal policies for developing managing and abandoning them the approach may be adapted to a wide variety of contexts outside the natural resource sector where uncertainty about future project revenues is a paramount concern

a physical view of sustainability abstract we assume that natural ecological communities tend to maximize the amount of stored biomass on a given area thereby creating the highest sustainable rate of entropy formation possible from that area we take this climax condition to define sustainability human intervention through agriculture reduced the ecosystem in given areas to a juvenile state a state which seems to produce entropy at a lower rate than that of the natural climax condition the gap in entropy production rates between the natural and the agricultural system would eventually be overcome by the direct and indirect use of fossil fuels these fossil fuels are consumed much faster than they are being formed and therefore a social structure based on their extensive use cannot be sustainable what type of social structure does meet our definition of sustainability that is what style and size of social activity will generate entropy at a rate no greater than that of the climax ecosystem in a particular area during the last two decades studies of economic activities and their environmental repercussions were limited to the possible costs and benefits of pollution control and to the economically optimal extraction rates of mineral resources the intrusion of human activities into the environment became increasingly apparent through the depletion of natural resource stocks and decreasing environmental quality in the 1990s sustainability of the socio economic system within the global ecosystem has become the pressing issue although research is increasingly concerned with the question of sustainability a definition based on physically measurable evidence is missing such a definition is proposed in this paper and an example application is given for a particular area

sticky prices as coordination failure this paper links the coordination failure and menu cost approaches to the microeconomic foundations of keynesian macroeconomics if a firm s desired price is increasing in others prices then the gain from price adjustment after a nominal shock is greater if others adjust this strategic complementarity leads to multiple equilibria in the degree of rigidity welfare may be much higher in the equilibria with less rigidity thus nominal rigidity arises from a failure to coordinate price changes jel e12 e30 keynesian macroeconomics waned in the 1970 s because economists grew disenchanted with its weak microeconomic foundations the central difficulty was that keynesian models were based on ad hoc rigidities in nominal wages and prices the 1980 s produced two approaches to reviving keynesian theory the menu cost literature n gregory mankiw 1985 george akerlof and janet yellen 1985 seeks to provide rigorous explanations for nominal rigidities these papers argue that small frictions in price setting are enough to produce large nominal rigidities in contrast the coordination failure literature russell cooper and andrew john 1988 abandons nominal rigidities and seeks alternative foundations for keynesian models the central idea is that many economic activities such as production e g john bryant 1983 trade e g peter diamond 1982 and investment e g nobuhiro kiyotaki 1988 exhibit synergism or strategic complementarity one agent s optimal level of activity depends positively on others activity strategic complementarity can lead to multiple equilibria with high activity equilibria superior to low activity equilibria thus an economy may be stuck in an underemployment equilibrium even though a superior equilibrium exists models with nominal rigidities and models with coordination failures are often presented as competing paradigms 1 this paper shows that this view is incorrect we take a step toward unifying the foundations of keynesian economics by showing that the two sets of ideas are highly complementary nominal rigidity arises from a failure to coordinate price changes this failure has the essential features of coordination failures in previous models flexibility in one firm s price increases the incentives for other firms to make their prices flexible this strategic complementarity leads to multiple equilibria in the degree of nominal rigidity equilibria with less rigidity more active price adjustment are often pareto superior to equilibria with more rigidity these results contribute to our understanding both of coordination failure and of nominal rigidity the range of keynesian phenomena explained by coordination failures is greatly expanded previous coordination failure models contain only real variables and thus ascribe no role to monetary policy or other determinants of nominal spending our results suggest that coordination failure is at the root of inefficient nonneutralities of money theories of nominal rigidities gain new empirical and policy im

modeling global and local dependence in a pair of commodity forward curves with an application to the us natural gas and heating oil markets abstract the goal of this paper is to present a model for the joint evolution of correlated commodity forward curves each forward curve is directed by two state variables namely slope and level and the model is meant to capture both the local and global dependence structures between slopes and levels our framework can be interpreted as an extension of the concept of cointegration to forward curves the model is applied to a us database of heating oil and natural gas futures prices over the period february 2000 february 2009 we find the long run slope and level relationships between natural gas and heating oil markets analyze the lead and lag properties between the two energy commodities the volatilities and correlations between their daily co movements and evaluate the robustness of these observations to the turmoil experienced by energy markets since 2003

listen to sraffa s silences a new interpretation of sraffa s production of commodities this paper argues that the received interpretation of sraffa s prices as classical natural prices that would prevail when the system is at the centre of gravitation cannot be retained it offers an alternative interpretation in which sraffa s prices are completely independent of demand considerations or the condition of equilibrium of demand and supply the requirement of the uniform rate of profits in sraffa s price equations is argued to be a logical consequence of the assumption that wages are uniform and fixed from outside the system the paper provides evidence from sraffa s published and unpublished writings to buttress its new interpretation it also provides answers to the major criticisms and questions raised against the new interpretation copyright oxford university press

short term variations and long term dynamics in commodity prices in this article we develop a two factor model of commodity prices that allows meanreversion in short term prices and uncertainty in the equilibrium level to which prices revert although these two factors are not directly observable they may be estimated from spot and futures prices intuitively movements in prices for long maturity futures contracts provide information about the equilibrium price level and differences between the prices for the short and long term contracts provide information about short term variations in prices we show that although this model does not explicitly consider changes in convenience yields over time this short term long term model is equivalent to the stochastic convenience yield model developed in gibson and schwartz 1990 we estimate the parameters of the model using prices for oil futures contracts and apply the model to some hypothetical oil linked assets to demonstrate its use and some of its advantages over the gibson schwartz model

ecosystems strong sustainability and the classical circular economy abstract in this article i argue that notions such as ecosystem services and strong sustainability can be best understood and developed within the theoretical framework advanced by the classical political economists in which a circular conception of the economy is provided i also argue that the development of notions such as ecosystem services and strong sustainability has been constrained by the dominance of neoclassical economics which provides a linear conception of the economy and leads to an emphasis on weak sustainability which in turn springs from an emphasis on substitutability and aggregate capital when assessing the relevance of classical political economy for studying ecosystem services and strong sustainability i consider not only the contributions of the classical political economists but also more recent contributions which draw upon the classical perspective such as piero sraffa s and amartya sen s

concepts of efficiency in ecological economics sisyphus and the decision maker abstract efficiency forms the bedrock of policy planning and business approaches to sustainable development but what do ecological economists mean by efficiency in the resource use context efficiency has a wide range of potential interpretations from the ratio of work output energy inputs to pareto efficiency despite the potential richness of the efficiency concept in practice efficiency is often narrowly conceived within disciplinary boundaries this appears to be the case even in ecological economics which purports to be transdisciplinary and pluralistic such narrow disciplinary perspectives essentially waste the richness of the efficiency concept this wasting could mean ecological economists and decision makers are destined to sisyphean toil in the pursuit of sustainable development this paper explores the efficiency concept and its interpretation it then reviews ecological economic literature to find that there is much room for improvement in the way ecological economists apply efficiency finally the paper presents a framework within which a truly ecological economic approach to efficiency can emerge armed with this framework policy makers and planners should be better prepared to make decisions leading to sustainable development

analysis of commodity prices with the particle filter the behavior of commodities prices is fundamental to real asset investment decisions hedging and pricing financial derivatives schwartz and smith schwartz e s smith j e 2000 short term variations and long term dynamics in commodity prices management science 46 893 911 proposed a two factor model for describing the stochastic processes of commodity prices in which the two factors are short term variations and equilibrium prices these are both unobserved state variables that are estimated using the kalman filter the estimation is based on the observation of future prices for different maturities the authors have carried out this process without incorporating jumps in the short term variation of prices here we aim to demonstrate that the inclusion of jumps better explains the behavior of oil prices and in fact creates difficulties in the estimation of state variables this is because the variables become non gaussian so the kalman filter is not recommended another methodology called the particle filter is more suitable in this case and we describe its application in this article

a near rational model of the business cycle with wage and price inertia this paper presents a model in which insignificantly suboptimal behavior causes aggregate demand shocks to have significant real effects the individual loss to agents with inertial price wage behavior is second order in terms of the parameter describing the shock while the effect on real economic variables is first order thus significant changes in business activity can be generated by anticipated money supply changes provided that some agents are willing to engage in nonmaximizing behavior which results in small losses

comment on b t mccallum new classical macroeconomics a sympathetic account i like mccallum s survey and its general theme that there is substantially more interaction and agreement in macroeconomics than is often made to be in my comments i want to take the argument one step further and argue that recent research developments suggest an interesting convergence between what robert hall has called the freshwater economists those who live in the midwest near the lakes and the saltwater economists those who live on the east and west coasts like hall i prefer not to use the words neo new keynesian or classical and their many associated semantic traps if i am right this convergence will lead to a substantial change in the field in the years to come three related themes are emerging as central to macroeconomics to the joint understanding of fluctuations and growth they are externalities increasing returns and imperfect competition these themes are hardly new and one cannot help feel that history of thought repeats itself 2 what is new however is both a wide consensus that they are important and substantial analytical progress in clarifying their relation to macroeconomic phenomena i shall start by describing recent developments on both the saltwater and the freshwater sides and how they are converging i limit myself to recent developments and using the excuse that this is a comment rather than yet another survey i shall not attempt to give an exhaustive bibliography

valuing public goods a comparison of survey and hedonic approaches although the theory of public goods has progressed rapidly since paul samuelson s seminal article the empirical measurement of the value of demand for public goods only recently has received increased attention perhaps the best known and most widely accepted empirical approach has been the use of hedonic prices wherein for example it is assumed that either wages or housing values reflect spatial variation in public good characteristics of different communities this indirect approach based on theoretical work of charles tiebout kelvin lancaster sherwin rosen and others has proven quite successful among public goods or bads which have been valued using the hedonic approach are climate i hoch air pollution robert anderson and thomas crocker d harrison and d rubinfeld social infrastructure r cummings et al and other community characteristics such as noise level j nelson and ethnic composition ann schnare an alternative approach is to directly ask households or individuals to state their willingness to pay for public goods using survey techniques despite arguments that strategic bias will invalidate survey results there exists the need for an alternative to the hedonic approach as an example consider the case of a remote and unique scenic vista valuable to recreators which is threatened by air pollution from a proposed coal fired plant a typical situation in the western united states although it is possible in principle to impute the value of clean air and visibility from the relative decline in local visitation which might follow construction of a power plant information on the value of visibility at the site is needed prior to construction for socially optimal decision making on plant location and pollution control equipment the hedonic approach is unavailable both because the scarcity of local population as opposed to recreators makes use of wage or property value data impossible and because scenic vistas may themselves be unique for these reasons a randall et al first applied survey methods for valuing visibility and other environmental effects of large coal fired power plants in the four corners region of new mexico since this initial application the survey approach has been widely used to value environmental commodities where market data for hedonic analysis is difficult to acquire see for example brookshire ives and schulze rowe et al brookshire et al other early attempts to value public goods using the survey approach include r davis peter bohm and j hammack and g brown although results of using the survey approach for estimating the value of public goods appear to be internally consistent replicable and consistent with demand theory see schulze et al little work on external validation has been reported thus the purpose of this paper is to report on an experiment designed to validate the survey approach by direct comparison to a hedonic property value study the los angeles metropolitan area was chosen for the experiment because of the well defined air pollution problem and be assistant professor university of wyoming assistant professor university of missouri rolla associate professor university of wyoming and professor university of wyoming respectively the research reported here was funded under a grant methods development for assessing air pollution control benefits from the u s environmental protection agency we would like to give special thanks to alan carlin and shelby gerking for their helpful suggestions and contributions additional helpful comments were received from a myrick freeman iii john tschirhart and james murdoch all conclusions are of course our sole responsibility

monopolistic competition and the effects of aggregate demand how important is monopolistic competition to an understanding of the effects of aggregate demand on output we ask the question at three levels can monopolistic competition by itself explain why aggregate demand movements affect output can it together with other imperfections generate effects of aggregate demand in a way that perfect competition cannot if so can it give an accurate account of the response of the economy to aggregate demand movements the answers are no yes and yes

measures of energy cost and value in ecosystems the physical output of ecological processes have different values even though they may be measured in the same physical units using linear input output theory we derive a set of weights based on direct and indirect energy requirements for ecosystem commodities which uniquely converts them into commensurable unit costs under certain conditions these costs are equal to values or prices using this system behavioral theories can be better posed for experimental verification

unspanned stochastic volatility and the pricing of commodity derivatives commodity derivatives are becoming an increasingly important part of the global derivatives market here we develop a tractable stochastic volatility model for pricing commodity derivatives the model features unspanned stochastic volatility quasi analytical prices of options on futures contracts and dynamics of the futures curve in terms of a low dimensional affine state vector we estimate the model on nymex crude oil derivatives using an extensive panel data set of 45 517 futures prices and 233 104 option prices spanning 4082 business days we find strong evidence for two predominantly unspanned volatility factors jel g13

a basis for sraffian ecological economics a comment on martins ecosystems strong sustainability and the classical circular economy martins 2016 recently emphasized the role that classical economics can play in building sustainability economics in this respect he uses sraffa s theory of value and sen and nussbaum s capability theory to support his argument my comment focuses on the part of his article concerning sraffa s theory and aims to refine some of martins claims in order to avoid misunderstandings about the possibilities offered by sraffa s theory

ecological production based pricing of biosphere processes abstract ecological pricing theory and method is reviewed and then applied to the valuation of biosphere processes and services ecological pricing values biosphere processes on the basis of biophysical interdependencies between all parts of the ecosystem not just those that have direct or obvious value to humans the application of the ecological pricing method to the biosphere for 1994 indicates that the total value of primary ecological inputs services to be nearly us 25 trillion this compares with us 33 trillion obtained in the costanza et al 1997 study our analysis also indicated a good correspondence between the shadow ecological price and the observed market price for all marketable goods except fossil fuel which was undervalued by the market

small menu costs and large business cycles a macroeconomic model of monopoly i introduction the conflict between modern neoclassical and traditional keynesian theories of the business cycle centers upon the pricing mechanism in neoclassical models prices are fully flexible they represent the continuous optimization of economic agents and the continuous intersection of supply and demand in keynesian models prices are often assumed to be sticky they do not necessarily equilibrate all markets at all times one of the reasons for the resurgence of the equilibrium approach to macroeconomics has been the absence of a theoretical underpinning for this keynesian price stickiness this note shows that sticky prices can be both privately efficient and socially inefficient the business cycle results from the suboptimal adjustment of prices in response to a demand shock to the extent that policy can stabilize aggregate demand it can mitigate the social loss due to this suboptimal adjustment in some keynesian models prices are simply exogenously fixed 2 in others agents must set their prices in advance of the transaction date the act of altering a posted price is certainly costly these costs include such items as printing new catalogs and informing salesmen of the new price yet these menu costs are small and therefore generally perceived as providing only a weak foundation for these fixed price models however this inference is flawed small menu costs can cause large welfare losses the claim that price adjustment costs are small does not rebut the claim that they are central to understanding economic fluctuations

increasing returns and the foundations of unemployment theory current approaches to macroeconomic theory divide roughly into two basic schools of thought one approach typically associated with rational expectations views the economy as basically at or near walrasian market clearing equilibrium in which case it becomes very difficult to explain away convincingly the undeniable persistence at times of involuntary unemployment another approach views the underemployed economy as being in a state of temporary fixed price disequilibrium in which case aside from having to repress suspicions that the essence of effective demand failure might not have to do with prices fixed at wrong values there is a lot of rationalising to be done about why profitable adjustments are so slow this paper argues that something like an internally consistent theory of steady state involuntary unemployment is possible and even plausible the cornerstone of this third approach is increasing returns to scale which blocks unemployed agents from breaking out of a low level equilibrium trap unless there is overall coordination or stimulation a simple model is presented which contains the basic ideas

the classical circular economy sraffian ecological economics and the capabilities approach abstract here i provide some further elaborations on the idea of a classical circular economy and its articulation with the capabilities approach this enables addressing some important questions raised by yoann verger 2017 when commenting on the idea of a classical circular economy as outlined in martins 2016 while advancing the basis for a sraffian ecological economics to understand the connections between sraffa s economic theory and the classical circular economy discussed by verger 2017 an essential aspect to be addressed here is sraffa s interpretation of the classical conception of the wage which can be fruitfully addressed in terms of the capabilities approach as suggested by vivian walsh 2000

on the brazilian fuel pricing policy a gaussian factor model approach in this paper we investigate the oil spot price dynamics and volatility in brazilian reais the local currency the current policy on price adjustments of refined products caused enormous turmoil

ecological economic modeling and valuation of ecosystems abstract we are attempting to integrate ecological and economic modeling and analysis in order to improve our understanding of regional systems assess potential future impacts of various land use development and agricultural policy options and to better assess the value of ecological systems starting with an existing spatially articulated ecosystem model of the patuxent river drainage basin in maryland we are adding modules to endogenize the agricultural components of the system especially the impacts of agricultural practices and crop choice and the process of land use decision making the integrated model will allow us to evaluate the indirect effects over long time horizons of current policy options these effects are almost always ignored in partial analyses although they may be very significant and may reverse many long held assumptions and policy predictions this paper is a progress report on this modeling effort indicating our motivations ideas and plans for completion