complexity in structured finance we study complexity in the market for securitized products a market at the heart of the financial crisis of 2007 9 the complexity of these products rose substantially in the years preceding the financial crisis we find that securities in more complex deals default more and have lower realized returns the worse performance is economically meaningful a one standard deviation increase in complexity represents an 18 increase in default on aaa securities however yields of more complex securities are not higher indicating that investors did not perceive them as riskier our results are consistent with complexity obfuscating security quality

investigating bid preferences at low price sealed bid auctions with endogenous participation abstract at procurement auctions with bid preferences qualified firms are treated special a common policy involves scaling the bids of preferred firms by a discount factor for the purposes of evaluation only introducing such an asymmetry has three effects first preferred firms may inflate their bids yet still win the auction second nonpreferred firms may bid more aggressively than in the absence of preferences third the preference policy can affect participation for different cost distributions we solve numerically for the equilibrium bid functions under different discounts and then simulate behaviour our approach allows us to quantify the relative importance of the three effects we find that the participation effect is relatively unimportant and in most cases a positive cost minimizing preference rate exists download download video 34mb video 1

european schemes for promoting renewables in liberalised markets abstract the paper describes possibilities and problems for penetration of supply systems based on renewable energy sources in liberalised markets the analysis is based on recent development in eu with different models for support of installations based on renewable energy these include feed in models with guaranteed minimum tariffs tender models for different bands of technologies and green certificates trading models with obligatory consumer quota the paper describes the market situation in selected european countries including germany the uk holland and denmark an eu directive from september 2001 has postponed the decision on a possible harmonisation of promotional models until at least 2005 in order to obtain more practical experience with the different support schemes a critical evaluation is given in this paper of the different models with proposals for a balanced development between environmental and trading concerns it is argued that too much emphasis is presently given to the side of free trade at the expense of long range planning for a sustainable energy development

the federal funds rate and the channels of monetary transmission the authors show that the interest rate on federal funds is extremely informative about future movements of real macroeconomic variables then they argue that the reason for this forecasting success is that the funds rate sensitively records shocks to the supply of bank reserves that is the funds rate is a good indicator of monetary policy actions finally using innovations to the funds rate as a measure of changes in policy the authors present evidence consistent with the view that monetary policy works at least in part through credit i e bank loans as well as through money i e bank deposits copyright 1992 by american economic association

bidding strategy of virtual power plant for participating in energy and spinning reserve markets part ii numerical analysis this paper is to evaluate the presented model in part i for bidding strategy of virtual power plant vpp with centralized control in a joint market of energy and spinning reserve service two test vpps are introduced and different scenarios are considered for markets prices at first the participation of vpp in only energy market is studied then the spinning reserve market is taken into consideration and the bids of vpp in a joint market of energy and spinning reserve service is studied under different scenarios of markets prices and the results are analyzed in all cases the results show the effectiveness and the quality of the procedure and validate the proposed model

internal capital markets and the competition for corporate resources this article examines the role of corporate headquarters in allocating scarce resources to competing projects in an internal capital market unlike a bank headquarters has control rights that enable it to engage in winner picking the practice of actively shifting funds from one project to another by doing a good job in the winner picking dimension headquarters can create value even when it cannot help at all to relax overall firm wide credit constraints the model implies that internal capital markets may sometimes function more efficiently when headquarters oversees a small and focused set of projects this article analyzes the process by which internal capital markets channel limited resources to different uses inside a company in so doing it seeks to address two related sets of questions first what is the fundamental economic rationale for creating an internal capital market that is under what circumstances can it make sense to combine several technologically distinct projects under one roof and have them seek funding from corporate headquarters as opposed to setting them up as stand alone companies that each raise external financing on their own second given this rationale what is the optimal size and scope of an internal capital market should headquarters be involved in funding a large number of projects or just a few and should these projects be unrelated to one another or in similar lines of business the answers to both sets of questions flow from the insight that in a credit constrained setting where not all positive npv projects can be financed headquarters can create value by actively reallocating scarce funds across projects for example the cash flow generated by one division s activities may be taken and spent on investment in another division where the returns are higher or alternatively one division s assets may be used as collateral to raise financing that is then diverted to the other division simply put individual projects must compete for the scarce funds and headquarters job is to pick the winners and losers in this competition

location and competition in retail banking abstract we investigate the impact of banking deregulation during the 1990s on consumer welfare we estimate a spatial model of consumer demand for retail bank deposits that explicitly accounts for consumer disutility from distance traveled this is important given the substantial changes in banks branch networks observed in the data our model indicates that cross price elasticities between banks whose branches are close to consumers close banks are larger than those between far banks and more than double the cross price elasticity of close banks with respect to far banks we distinguish between thrifts and other banks and find that within thrift competitive effects are stronger than within bank effects or those between thrifts and banks we use our estimates to predict the effect of changes in market structure on consumer welfare following the branching deregulation of the riegle neal act of 1994 our results indicate that the median household gained around 60 per year from the changes approximately two thirds of the gains come from within market changes in market structure the gains were greater in markets with high initial numbers of banks than elsewhere

the bear s lair index credit default swaps and the subprime mortgage crisis during the recent financial crisis abx he index credit default swaps cds on baskets of mortgage backed securities were a benchmark widely used by financial institutions to mark their subprime mortgage portfolios to market however we find that prices for the aaa abx he index cds during the crisis were inconsistent with any reasonable assumption for mortgage default rates and that these price changes are only weakly correlated with observed changes in the credit performance of the underlying loans in the index casting serious doubt on the suitability of these cds as valuation benchmarks we also find that the aaa abx he index cds price changes are related to short sale activity for publicly traded investment banks with significant mortgage market exposure this suggests that capital constraints limiting the supply of mortgage bond insurance may be playing a role here similar to that identified by froot 2001 in the market for catastrophe insurance the author 2011 published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies all rights reserved for permissions please e mail journals permissions oup com oxford university press

a comparative analysis of current credit risk models the new bis 1998 capital requirements for market risks allows banks to use internal models to assess regulatory capital related to both general market risk and credit risk for their trading book this paper reviews the current proposed industry sponsored credit value at risk methodologies first the credit migration approach as proposed by jp morgan with creditmetrics is based on the probability of moving from one credit quality to another including default within a given time horizon second the option pricing or structural approach as initiated by kmv and which is based on the asset value model originally proposed by merton merton r 1974 journal of finance 28 449 470 in this model the default process is endogenous and relates to the capital structure of the firm default occurs when the value of the firm s assets falls below some critical level third the actuarial approach as proposed by credit suisse financial products csfp with creditrisk and which only focuses on default default for individual bonds or loans is assumed to follow an exogenous poisson process finally mckinsey proposes creditportfolioview which is a discrete time multi period model where default probabilities are conditional on the macro variables like unemployment the level of interest rates the growth rate in the economy which to a large extent drive the credit cycle in the economy 2000 elsevier science b v all rights reserved

gains from an integrated market for tradable renewable energy credits abstract decoupling the environmental attributes of renewable energy re generation from the physical unit of energy is an innovative mechanism for marketing green or renewable power the introduction of tradable renewable energy credits trecs allows the green power attributes of energy to be sold or traded separately from the physical unit of energy since the green power certificate system removes potential locational and physical bottlenecks both suppliers and consumers gain flexibility in the marketplace the trec is also an efficient tool to meet renewable portfolio standard rps required by different states in the us this paper discusses the rps requirements for different states and examines the implications of an integrated trec market it offers a competitive setting to the consumers to pay for renewable energy and a cost effective tool to support renewable energy generation grace and wiser 2002 this paper also highlights some practical difficulties that should be addressed in order to establish an efficient integrated trec market

a market for renewable energy credits in the indian power sector abstract electricity generation from renewable energy sources in india has been promoted through a host of fiscal policies and preferential tariff for electricity produced from the same the fiscal policies include tax incentives and purchase of electricity generated through renewable energy sources the enactment of the electricity act 2003 the act has lent further support to renewable energy by stipulating purchase of a certain percentage of the power procurement by distribution utilities from renewable energy sources the renewable portfolio obligation as well as the feed in tariff for power procurement has been specified by a number of state electricity regulatory commissions sercs for the respective state under their jurisdiction a feed in tariff determined through a cost plus approach under a rate of return framework lacks incentive for cost minimisation and does not encourage optimal utilisation of renewable energy resources in the country such regulatory provisions differ across states the prevalent practice of fixing a renewable portfolio obligation along with cost based feed in tariffs disregards economic efficiency the paper proposes nationally tradable renewable energy credits scheme for achieving the targets set by the respective sercs as renewable portfolio obligation this would reduce the cost of compliance to a renewable portfolio obligation and would encourage efficient resource utilisation and investment in appropriate technologies the paper highlights its advantages and implementation issues this paper discusses regulatory developments for promotion of renewable energy in various indian states the paper also identifies a number of issues related to regulations concerning renewable portfolio obligation

power sector reform in india current issues and prospects power sector reforms in india were initiated at a juncture when the sector was plagued with commercial losses and burgeoning subsidy burden investment in the sector was not able to keep pace with growing demand for electricity this paper takes stock of pre reform situation in indian power sector and identifies key concerns that led to initiation of the process of reform the paper discusses major policy and regulatory changes undertaken since the early 1990s the paper also illustrates changes in the market structure as we move along the reform process we also discuss some of the major provisions of the recently enacted electricity act 2003 that aims to replace the prevailing acts which govern the functioning of the power sector in the country in this context we discuss two issues arising out of it namely open access and multi year tariff that we think would have a significant bearing on the performance of the sector in the near future the paper also evaluates the reform process in the light of some of the regulatory changes undertaken finally the paper briefly discusses the issues involved in introduction of competition in the power sector primarily through development of a market for bulk power

phasing the operation mode of foreign subsidiaries reaping the benefits of multinationality through internal capital markets the lifetime of foreign equity partnerships is often limited research suggests that mncs abandon their local partners when the need for sharing ownership in foreign subsidiaries has diminished this study shows that mncs may abandon their local equity partners to reap the benefits of multinationality as mncs gain a competitive advantage from leveraging resources across borders they will initially benefit from sharing ownership with a local firm to embed their foreign subsidiaries in the local environment and access local resources more effectively later they will benefit from taking over the local partner s equity share to better embed their subsidiaries in the parent organization and transfer locally accessed resources to the mnc s other locations moderated mediation regressions provide evidence of such practice in the context of cross border transfers of capital resources this strategy seems to work as a corollary of our model panel regressions suggest that sharing ownership with local firms in a host country with a capital resource advantage is associated with appropriating more capital resources from the local debt market while abandoning these partner firms later is associated with transferring more capital resources from this host country via internal capital markets to other parts of the mnc

renewables portfolio standard a means for trade with electricity from renewable energy sources abstract this paper discusses the main support mechanisms for enhancing the deployment of renewable energies re implemented in different industrialised countries the focus is on the electricity sector where deregulation and liberalisation has led to market opening and introduction of competition in the formerly strongly regulated power market under open market conditions price regulation mechanisms in favour of renewable energies which were used by many governments to support renewables tend to be considered as being inappropriate because they lead to distortions in competition and are difficult to abolish once market participants got used to them therefore the idea of creating a demand for re instead of supporting supply is gradually spreading this paper concentrates on the renewables portfolio standard rps which is a considerably new instrument that is aimed on the demand side and has only recently entered discussion it is based on legislatively mandating a percentage share of electricity generated from renewables and proved with certificates before this new means is discussed in more detail a short overview of the existing supply side mechanism is given to point out the different approach in addition examples of some countries already having some experience with the rps are given to show the present status of implementation derived from these theoretical considerations and practical experiences the paper discusses possible impacts on market participants they depend strongly on the outline of the rps and the organisation of the electricity sector adopted as a conclusion the introduction of an rps cannot alone solve the problem of enhancing the use of re however the advantages are a higher degree of competition among generators or developers of re technology more freedom of choice concerning the options for meeting the requirement and perhaps less government expenditures also experiences with national certificate trading within the rps system could ease the way for international or at least european trading systems like the emissions trading as proposed in the kyoto protocol

simulating price patterns for tradable green certificates to promote electricity generation from wind abstract this article uses computer simulation to anticipate the price dynamics in a market for tradable green certificates tgcs these markets have been used in europe to promote generation of electricity from renewable resources like wind similar markets have been proposed in the united states of america usa where the certificates are called renewable energy credits recs the certificates are issued to the generating companies for each megawatt hour of renewable electricity generation the companies may sell the certificates in a market and the revenues from certificate sales provide an extra incentive to invest in new generating capacity proponents argue that this market based incentive can be designed to support government mandates for a growing fraction of electricity generation from renewable sources in the usa these mandates are set by the states and are known as renewable portfolio standards rps we simulate the price dynamics of a market designed to support an aggressive mandate for wind generation in the northwestern usa the simulations show that the certificate price climbs rapidly to the cap in the early years after the market opens investors then react to these high prices with construction of new wind capacity after a few years wind generation meets and then exceeds the requirement we show that this pattern appears again and again when the simulations are repeated with wide variations in the estimates of behavioral parameters we use the model to study the impact of different trading strategies by the wind companies and by the distribution companies we also study the simulated market response if the usa adopts the carbon allowance market envisioned in the climate stewardship act the article concludes with recommendations for policy makers involved in tgc market design

regulatory performance analysis case study britain s electricity industry the success or failure of the privatisation and liberalisation of electricity supply industries has more often been judged in terms of process than of outcomes in this paper in contrast this performance is assessed in terms of the performance of its associated system of regulatory governance taking the uk s electricity supply industry between 1989 and 2000 as case study initially a vertical cross section of the regulation system gives a finding matrix for the various stakeholders involved and identifying winners and losers from the standpoint of funding flows next a horizontal cross section provides the environmental distributive allocative dynamic and productive efficiencies grid for this system the survey shows that the performance of the british esi regulation system produced benefits although not for all stakeholders and not as fairly as possible the chosen path did not seem sustainable and failed to respect intergenerational transfers as a way of fostering sustainability and equity it was unable to underpin simultaneous improvements in efficiencies over time while redistributing industry s funding flows among the players in a regressive manner

renewable energy certificate mechanism in india a preliminary assessment abstract the indian national action plan for climate change napcc envisages several measures to address global climate change one of the important measures identified involves increasing the share of renewable energy in total electricity consumption in the country this would mean napcc envisages renewable energy to constitute approximately 15 of the energy mix of india by 2020 to achieve the target set by the napcc indian ministry of power launched renewable energy certificate rec mechanism in november 2010 however participation in the rec markets is low and recs have failed to attract significant investment so far in this study a preliminary attempt has been made to assess the performance of existing rec mechanism in india after highlighting the salient features of the indian renewable energy policy framework a brief description of renewable purchase obligation rpo and source specific rpos for different states is discussed along with an overview of rec market in india to date the performance of indian rec mechanism is evaluated by cost competiveness decentralized distributed generation and renewable energy portfolio diversity and their effectiveness has also been measured on the basis of the available data although it is difficult to make any conclusive remark on the success or failure of rec mechanism due to its short experience this study examines the process to date to come out with some recommendations which can be used to fine tune the functioning of existing rec market in india for instance rec price bounds should be revised because it has been not explicitly supporting cost competiveness by offering 60 33 higher average price than the existing average feed in tariff fit it is also observed that state wise contribution in registered capacity is skewed towards few states like tamil nadu 27 maharashtra 23 and uttar pradesh 22 which puts pressure on policy makers to restructure the existing rec mechanism

does the market understand rating shopping predicting mbs losses with initial yields we study rating shopping on the mbs market outside of aaa losses are higher on single rated tranches than on multi rated ones and yields predict future losses for single rated tranches but not for multi rated ones conversely ratings have less explanatory power for single rated tranches these results suggest that single rated tranches have been shopped whereby pessimistic ratings never reach the market for aaa rated mbs by contrast 93 receive two or three such ratings and those ratings agree 97 of the time this ratings convergence suggests that agencies cater to investors who cannot purchase a tranche unless it has multiple aaa ratings

rating the raters are reputation concerns powerful enough to discipline rating agencies abstract credit rating agencies cras are accused of bearing a strong responsibility for contributing to the subprime crisis by having been deliberately too lax in the ratings of some structured products in response to this accusation cras argue that such an attitude would be too dangerous for them since their reputation is at stake the objective of this article is to examine the validity of this argument within a formal model are reputation concerns sufficient to discipline rating agencies we show that the reputation argument only works when a sufficiency large fraction of the cra income comes from other sources than rating complex products by contrast when rating complex products becomes a major source of income for the cra we show that it is always too lax with a positive probability and inflates ratings with probability one when its reputation is good enough we provide some empirical support for this prediction by showing that ceteris paribus the proportion of subprime residential mortgage backed securities rmbs that were rated aaa by the three main cras indeed increased over the last eight years we analyze the policy implications of our findings and advocate for a new business model of cras that we call the platform pays model

role of targeted policies in mainstreaming renewable energy in a resource constrained electricity system a case study of karnataka electricity system in india india is aggressively pursuing its renewable energy capacity expansion goals targeted policies such as feed in tariff fit renewable purchase obligation rpo and renewable energy certificate rec are introduced to stimulate renewable energy capacity expansion as well as generation currently indian power utilities treat rpo targets as a cost burden and therefore there is prevalence of non compliance even other policies such as fit and recs in their present form have failed to influence increase in renewable electricity supply this has lead us to raise an important question whether these policies are adequate for building a cost effective renewable energy based low carbon electricity system for india in this paper we discuss the impact of above targeted policies in increasing the share of renewable electricity generation in the case of karnataka state electricity system various scenarios are developed and analysed using mixed integer programming model to study the impacts the results suggest that optimally managed fit and rec schemes can provide opportunities for utilities to benefit from reduced costs overall the above policies are inadequate and introduction of market based incentives which expand the scope of trading in renewable energy certificates are essential to achieve the desired objectives

the antidirector rights index revisited the antidirector rights index has been used as a measure of shareholder protection in over a hundred articles since it was introduced by la porta et al law and finance 1998 journal of political economy 106 1113 55 a thorough reexamination of the legal data however leads to corrections for thirty three of the forty six countries analyzed the correlation between corrected and original values is only 0 53 consequently many empirical results established using the original index may not be replicable with corrected values in particular the corrected index fails to support three widely influential claims that shareholder protection is higher in common than in civil law countries that shareholder protection predicts stock market size or ownership dispersion and that weak corporate governance explains the extent of exchange rate depreciation during the asian financial crisis of 1997 1998 the author 2009 published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies all rights reserved for permissions please e mail journals permissions oxfordjournals org oxford university press

national environmental targets and international emission reduction instruments according to the agreed burden sharing within the european union the overall eu emission reduction target as agreed by in the kyoto protocol is converted into national greenhouse gas reduction targets for each of the member states in parallel with national emission reduction initiatives common eu policies for emission reductions are considered currently discussed is the introduction of a market for tradable permits for co2 emissions to achieve emission reductions within the power industry and other energy intensive industries in parallel with this markets for green certificates to deploy renewable energy technologies seem to be appearing in a number of countries among these denmark italy sweden belgium flanders england and australia although these national initiatives for a green certificate market are fairly different they could be a starting point for establishing a common eu certificate market but interactions between national targets for greenhouse gas emissions and these international instruments for emission reduction are not a trivial matter especially not seen in relation to the possible contributions of these instruments in achieving national ghg reduction targets the paper is split into three parts all taking a liberalised power market as starting point the first part discusses the consequences of a general deployment of renewable energy technologies using planning initiatives or national promotion schemes feed in tariffs in the second part an international green certificate market is introduced into the liberalised power market context substituting other national promotion schemes finally in the third part a combination of an international green certificate market tgc and an international emission trading scheme for co2 is analysed within the liberalised international power market set up the main conclusion is that neither the use of national renewable support schemes nor the introduction of a tgc market into a liberalised power market can be recommended if these initiatives efficiently are expected to contribute in achieving the national co2 reduction targets countries most ambitious in implementing renewable energy technologies will only partly be gaining the co2 reduction benefits themselves the ambitious countries will support the less ambitious ones in achieving their ghg reduction targets finally in a tgc market context the most ambitious countries to fulfil their tgc quotas will have to buy certificates from the less ambitious ones although this only contributes to fulfilling a national target for renewable development not in reaching their national co2 reduction targets however a combination of an international tradable permits market and a green certificate market is seen to be efficient in contributing in achieving the national co2 reduction targets if a close co ordination of the two instruments is undertaken at least at the national level when the green power production is increased the tradable permits quota should be decreased correspondingly otherwise the expected co2 reductions will not contribute by the full value in achieving the national targets for greenhouse gas reductions thus if it is a prerequisite that renewable power contributes to achieving national ghg reduction targets then the combination of these two markets might be the right solution

promoting policy reforms the twilight of conditionality abstract for the past 15 years the world bank often in cooperation with the international monetary fund and sometimes also with bilateral donors has tried to encourage policy reforms through conditions attached to structural or sector adjustment loans in the 1990s however such loans are a rapidly dwindling portion of the bank s disbursements this article examines major reasons for this shift including increased flows of private capital democratization the changing nature of the reform agenda itself and growing bank emphasis on ownership reduced direct conditionality is likely to be replaced in part by growing selectivity the results may well be constructive but will not ease tensions in the aid relationship

ratings quality over the business cycle credit rating agencies cras have long held that reputational concerns discipline their behavior the value of reputation however depends on economic fundamentals that vary over the business cycle in a model of ratings incorporating endogenous reputation and a market environment that varies we find that ratings quality is countercyclical specifically a cra is more likely to issue less accurate ratings when fee income is high competition in the labor market for analysts is tough and securities default probabilities are low persistence in economic conditions can diminish our results while mean reversion exacerbates them the presence of naive investors reduces overall quality but quality remains countercyclical finally we demonstrate that competition among cras yields similar results

securitization bubbles structured finance with disagreement about default risk abstract an additional reason for the structured finance boom of the 2000s may have been disagreement about default risk of collateral assets when risk neutral investors disagree about average default probabilities structuring collateral cash flow raises prices by concentrating optimists demand on risky tranches with disagreement about default correlation low correlation investors believe in diversification and pay high prices for senior tranches they deem riskless high correlation investors value junior tranches they expect to pay whenever aggregate conditions are good risk aversion and short selling through credit default swaps reduce the prices of both pass through and structured securitizations but may increase the return to tranching

market demand for conservative analysts abstract sell side analysts on balance have incentives to emphasize good company news and downplay the bad resulting in inefficient forecasts we conjecture that this behavior generates a demand for forecasts from conservative analysts who unwind this pattern at least in part resulting in more efficient forecasts to investigate we introduce a measure of analyst conservatism and assess the market reaction to analysts forecast revisions conditioned on their past levels of conservatism we find a stronger market reaction to forecast revisions by more conservative analysts and that this result is heightened for companies with greater institutional investor following

electricity privatization revisited a commentary on the case for new initiatives in india abstract normally privatization is resorted to by different economies for different reasons resource mobilization introducing efficiency by promoting competition and for achieving commercial orientation often these are assumed to be independent objectives the indian experience is showing that they are quite interdependent and unless all the three objectives are tackled simultaneously privatization will not succeed specifically the poor financial performance of the state electricity boards and their lack of commercial orientation is applying a brake on investment in the power sector by foreign ipps similarly the government s approach to privatization without promoting competition through the so called memorandum of understanding is leading to high cost solutions and acrimonious public debates demanding transparency in decision making and review of those already made

bidding strategy of virtual power plant for participating in energy and spinning reserve markets part i problem formulation this paper addresses the bidding problem faced by a virtual power plant vpp in a joint market of energy and spinning reserve service the proposed bidding strategy is a non equilibrium model based on the deterministic price based unit commitment pbuc which takes the supply demand balancing constraint and security constraints of vpp itself into account the presented model creates a single operating profile from a composite of the parameters characterizing each distributed energy resources der which is a component of vpp and incorporates network constraints into its description of the capabilities of the portfolio the presented model is a nonlinear mixed integer programming with inter temporal constraints and solved by genetic algorithm ga

cdos and the financial crisis credit ratings and fair premia abstract we study risk and return characteristics of cdos using the market standard models we find that fair spreads on cdo tranches are much higher than fair spreads on similarly rated corporate bonds our results imply that credit ratings are not sufficient for pricing which is surprising given their central role in structured finance markets this illustrates limitations of the rating methodologies that are solely based on real world default probabilities or expected losses and do not capture risk premia we also demonstrate that cdo tranches have large exposure to systematic risk and thus their ratings and prices are likely to decline substantially when credit conditions deteriorate

power sector reform in developing countries mismatched agendas power sector reform is rapidly spreading across all corners of the developing world at an alarmingly rapid pace while the rationales for reform seem to have gained acceptance among the stakeholders the reform model and process are contested this paper examines the impacts of reform using the promised outcomes as a basis for analysis the ability of reform to meet the developmental challenges facing the reformers is explored it concludes that reform has had some achievements if conventional performance indicators are used but also questions the validity of some of these indicators reform has however not fulfilled many of its goals and the prevailing recipes are likely to leave developing countries socially and economically worse off than in the pre reform period progressive government intervention is needed to shift reform process towards a more responsible development path

credit ratings and security prices in the subprime mbs market we present and discuss preliminary evidence suggesting that credit ratings significantly influenced prices for subprime mortgage backed securities issued in the period leading up to the recent financial crisis ratings are closely correlated with prices even controlling for a rich set of security and loan level controls this incremental variation in ratings has much less predictive power for security defaults however based on findings to date from our ongoing research suggesting prices were excessively sensitive to ratings relative to their informational content

measuring market power in the ready to eat cereal industry the ready to eat cereal industry is characterized by high concentration high price cost margins large advertising to sales ratios and numerous introductions of new products previous researchers have concluded that the ready to eat cereal industry is a classic example of an industry with nearly collusive pricing behavior and intense nonprice competition this paper empirically examines this conclusion in particular i estimate price cost margins but more importantly i am able empirically to separate these margins into three sources i that which is due to product differentiation ii that which is due to multi product firm pricing and iii that due to potential price collusion the results suggest that given the demand for different brands of cereal the first two effects explain most of the observed price cost margins i conclude that prices in the industry are consistent with noncollusive pricing behavior despite the high price cost margins leading firms are able to maintain a portfolio of differentiated products and influence the perceived product quality it is these two factors that lead to high price cost margins

the market for tradable renewable energy credits abstract as states seek to foster the development of renewable energy resources some have introduced renewable portfolio standards rpss which require retailers of electricity to derive a specified amount of their energy supply from renewable energy resources rpss in texas arizona wisconsin and nevada allow for or require the use of tradable renewable energy credits the price of such credits is expected to reflect the cost premium for generating electricity from renewable resources relative to the market price of conventionally generated electricity using the market to trade renewable energy credits exposes buyers and sellers to risks of imperfect information poor performance and opportunism these risks can be managed through contractual arrangements and regulatory requirements pertaining to property rights in credits pricing term of the contract and assurance of performance

the renewable portfolio standard design considerations and an implementation survey renewables have social and environmental bene ts compared to conventional electricity sources but are rarely competitive on a strict nancial cost basis this is because conventional sources are sometimes subsidized their full pollution costs are ignored and renewables involve newer higher cost technologies whose relative costs will fall with commercialization governments use several mechanisms to support renewables including direct nancial support grants loans indirect support r d demonstrations reform of nancial costs of conventional sources subsidy removal pollution taxes and the renewable portfolio standard rps the rps requires a minimum share of electricity from renewable energy sources its use is spreading because it maintains an incentive for renewable producers to reduce costs links the regulated market outcome to an environmental target and reduces government involvement although it is too early to evaluate fully its e ectiveness the survey for this study explored implementation issues in three european countries nine us states and australia and found the following the rps target is usually set to have environmental bene ts without causing signi cant price increases cost caps are sometimes used most jurisdictions limit eligibility to gridconnected domestic renewables the rps is usually applied to producers rather than consumers and to energy output not capacity flexibility mechanisms are desired but a challenge to implement administration in the us and australia is by government with delegation to independent utility regulators while in europe it is more the responsibility of government everywhere the rps is applied alongside other mechanisms of renewables support 2001 elsevier science ltd all rights reserved

moody s and s p ratings are they equivalent conservative ratings and split rated bond yields we examine the relative impact of moody s and s p ratings on bond yields and find that at issuance yields on split rated bonds with superior moody s ratings are about 8 basis points lower than yields on split rated bonds with superior s p ratings this suggests that investors differentiate between the two ratings and assign more weight to the ratings from moody s the more conservative rating agency moody s becomes more conservative after 1998 and the impact of a superior moody s rating becomes stronger furthermore the differential impact of the two ratings is more pronounced for the more opaque rule 144a issues

financial intermediation and macroeconomic analysis a macroeconomic framework in which fi nancial intermediation matters for the allocation of resources allocation of resources in this paper i fi rst discuss why neither standard macroeconomic models that in this paper i fi rst discuss why neither standard macroeconomic models that abstract from fi nancial intermediation nor traditional models of the bank lending abstract from fi nancial intermediation nor traditional models of the bank lending channel are adequate as a basis for understanding the recent crisis i argue that channel are adequate as a basis for understanding the recent crisis i argue that instead we need models in which intermediation plays a crucial role but in which instead we need models in which intermediation plays a crucial role but in which intermediation is modeled in a way that better conforms to current institutional intermediation is modeled in a way that better conforms to current institutional realities in particular we need models that recognize that a market based fi nan realities in particular we need models that recognize that a market based fi nan cial system one in which intermediaries fund themselves by selling securities in cial system one in which intermediaries fund themselves by selling securities in competitive markets rather than collecting deposits subject to reserve require competitive markets rather than collecting deposits subject to reserve require ments is not the same as a frictionless system ments is not the same as a frictionless system i then sketch the basic elements of an approach that allows fi nancial inter i then sketch the basic elements of an approach that allows fi nancial inter mediation and credit frictions to be integrated into macroeconomic analysis in a mediation and credit frictions to be integrated into macroeconomic analysis in a straightforward way i show how the model can be used to analyze the macroeco straightforward way i show how the model can be used to analyze the macroeco nomic consequences of the recent fi nancial crisis and conclude with a discussion of nomic consequences of the recent fi nancial crisis and conclude with a discussion of some implications of the model for the conduct of monetary policy some implications of the model for the conduct of monetary policy

unfair fair value in illiquid markets information spillover effects in times of crisis we investigate the effects of write downs on market prices and volumes under fair value accounting we also examine the prominent role that illiquidity plays in exacerbating the direct and spillove

competition and strategic incentives in the market for credit ratings empirics of the financial crisis of 2007 we study the market for ratings agencies in the commercial mortgage backed securities sector leading up to and including the financial crisis of 2007 2008 using a structural model adapted from the auctions literature we characterize the incentives of ratings agencies to distort ratings in favor of issuers we find an important equilibrium distortion which decreased after the crisis we study several counterfactual experiments motivated by recent policymaking in this industry

ratings competition in the cmbs market we consider the relationship between competition among credit rating agencies and the ratings of commercial mortgage backed securities cmbs using data from 2002 to 2007 we characterize competition using fitch s aggregate share of cmbs ratings and a measure of fitch s deal specific market share constructed as the probability of fitch being hired for a specific transaction controlling for deal characteristics we find that subordination levels were lower when fitch s aggregate and deal specific market shares were higher which suggests that ratings competition yielded less stringent ratings when fitch was a more significant competitor although this effect dissipates when fitch s market shares were high

optimal design of subsidy to stimulate renewable energy investments the case of china this paper proposes a real options model for estimating the optimal subsidy for renewable energy power generation project by using stochastic process to describe the market price of electricity co2 price and investment cost two indicators i e project value and threshold value are used to derive the optimal subsidy the least squares monte carlo simulation method is used to solve the model the proposed model is used to empirically evaluate the optimal level of subsidy for solar photovoltaic power generation in china the results show that carbon emission trading scheme helps reduce subsidy unit generating capacity market price of electricity co2 price and the volatility of investment cost are negatively related with subsidy whereas investment cost and the volatility of electricity price and co2 price are positively related with subsidy it is suggested that chinese governments take some measures e g promoting technological progress establishing a nationwide carbon emission trading market promoting the competition in renewable energy industry as well as maintaining the stability of co2 price and electricity price to reduce the required subsidy

envisaging feed in tariffs for solar photovoltaic electricity european lessons for canada abstract while it is widely agreed that support schemes need to be put in place to promote the use of renewable electricity there is less consensus as to what are the best kinds of strategies to use what is attracting increasing attention in canada is a system of renewable portfolio standards in this all power suppliers are under an obligation to ensure that a certain percentage of the electricity they generate is from renewable resources they can either generate that electricity themselves or purchase green certificates from those who have used renewables to generate electricity recent experience from europe however suggests that a whole hearted commitment to this single strategy could be premature and potentially damaging for the development of all kinds of renewable electricity in canada solar photovoltaics included on the other side of the atlantic ocean the use of so called feed in tariffs that is an obligation for utilities to purchase at a set price the electricity generated by any renewable energy resource is widely credited with accelerating the development of renewable electricity in many countries the purpose of this article is to reflect upon this european experience with feed in tariffs to stimulate discussions regarding what promise they might hold for the development of solar photovoltaic electricity in canada the article is divided into three main sections in the first section policies to promote renewable electricity presently in place in different parts of canada are reviewed attention is then focused more specifically in the second section of this article upon feed in tariffs after defining and describing this alternative system experiences in the countries of the european union are reviewed the main strengths and weaknesses of feed in tariffs in the european experience are also examined the focus then moves back to canada in the third section of the article in this a system of feed in tariffs is proposed for the province of ontario in order to provide just one example of the kind of support that could be forthcoming

financial protectionism first evidence we examine large public interventions in the financial sector such as bank nationalizations and search for financial protectionism a decrease in the quantity and or an increase in the price of loans that banks from one country make to borrowers resident in another we use a bank level panel data set spanning all u k resident banks between 1997q3 and 2010q1 after nationalization foreign banks reduced their fraction of british loans by about 11 and increased their effective interest rates by about 70 basis points in contrast nationalized british banks did not significantly change either their loan mix or effective interest rates

deposit competition and financial fragility evidence from the us banking sector preliminary and incomplete please do not cite without permission we develop and estimate an empirical model of the u s banking sector using a new data set covering the largest u s banks over the period 2002 2013 our model incorporates insured depositors and run prone uninsured depositors who have rich preferences over dierentiated banks banks compete for deposits in the spirit of matutes and vives 1996 and can endogenously default we estimate demand for uninsured

corporate bond market transaction costs and transparency using a complete record of u s over the counter otc secondary trades in corporate bonds we estimate average transaction costs as a function of trade size for each bond that traded more than nine times between january 2003 and january 2005 we find that transaction costs decrease significantly with trade size highly rated bonds recently issued bonds and bonds close to maturity have lower transaction costs than do other bonds costs are lower for bonds with transparent trade prices and they drop when the trace system starts to publicly disseminate their prices the results suggest that public traders benefit significantly from price transparency

us consumers willingness to pay for green electricity abstract we analyze us consumers demand for environmental attributes of deregulated residential electricity services using results from a survey designed to elicit consumers willingness to pay for such attributes and using results from a hedonic analysis of actual price premiums charged for green electricity in several deregulated markets survey results suggest that many population segments are willing to pay for decreased air emissions even if there is no alteration in fuel source furthermore several groups are willing to pay significantly more when emissions reductions stem from increased reliance upon renewable fuels the hedonic analysis suggests that several product features not considered in the survey help explain real price premiums including fuel mix from newly created renewable generation capacity green e certification brand name and state of offer while survey and hedonic results are not easily compared due to limitations of the survey both point to similar values for key environmental attributes though the survey results are likely to overstate actual willingness to pay in sum the results suggest that consumer driven purchases can in part support the future of renewable generation capacity in the united states though reliance upon other policy alternatives may be needed if energy prices spike

the political economy of international green certificate markets this paper analyzes the political economy of establishing bilateral trade in green certificate markets as one step towards harmonization of european green electricity support systems we outline some of the economic principles of an integrated bilateral green certificates market and then discuss a number of issues that are deemed to be critical for the effectiveness stability and legitimacy of such a market by drawing on some of the lessons of the fairly recent intentions to integrate a future green certificate market in norway with the existing swedish one we highlight exemplify and discuss some critical policy implementation and design issues these include for instance the system s connection to climate policy targets the role of other support schemes and the definition of what green electricity technologies should be included furthermore the establishment of an international market presumes that the benefits of renewable power e g its impacts on the environment diversification of the power mix self sufficiency etc are approached and valued from an international perspective rather than from a national one thus implying lesser emphasis on for instance employment and regional development impacts a bilateral green certificate system thus faces a number of important policy challenges but at the same time it could provide important institutional learning effects that can be useful for future attempts aiming at achieving greater policy integration in the european renewable energy sector

home bias foreign mutual fund holdings and the voluntary adoption of international accounting standards we test the assertion that a consequence of voluntarily adopting international accounting standards ias is the enhanced ability to attract foreign capital using a unique database that reports firm level holdings of over 25 000 mutual funds from around the world our multivariate tests find that average foreign mutual fund ownership is significantly higher among ias adopters we also find that ias adopters in poorer information environments and with lower visibility have higher levels of foreign investment consistent with firms using ias adoption to provide more information and or information in a more familiar form to foreign investors taken together our findings are consistent with voluntary las adoption reducing home bias among foreign investors and thereby improving capital allocation efficiency

renewable energy certificate markets in india a review abstract in india the national action policy on climate change napcc 1 has set a target of 15 of electricity via renewable energy sources by 2020 to reach these ambitious targets in march 2011 the government of india launched the renewable energy certificates rec a market based mechanism to drive renewable energy development and spur further investments however a look into the actual performance of rec market trading during the first year of operation shows that though volume of trading steadily increased the number of accredited certificates issued was less than 2 5 of the technical rec demand potential indicating that the full potential of the rec markets was far from being realized we critically examine the design and implementation of the rec market in india as well as its effectiveness in meeting the desired objectives in the context of international best practices our analysis of rec market best practices reveals that though forward markets banking and price bounds are recommended for stable markets best of class methods for determining the optimal length of banking the level of floor and forbearance prices and the values of credit vintage multipliers are not fully established we then establish that the main issues with the indian rec markets appear to be demand uncertainty resulting from lack of long term targets absence of clarity on compliance and near absence of long term price signals to investors finally we present an analysis of other important features of the indian rec market in the context of well functioning rec markets such as credit multipliers set asides vintage multipliers and voluntary markets 2013 elsevier ltd

the deposits channel of monetary policy we propose and test a new channel for the transmission of monetary policy we show that when the fed funds rate increases banks widen the interest spreads they charge on deposits and deposits ow out of the banking system we present a model in which imperfect competition among banks gives rise to these relationships an increase in the nominal interest rate increases banks market power inducing them to increase deposit spreads and hence restrict deposit supply households respond to the increase in deposit prices by substituting from deposits into less liquid but higheryielding assets consequently changes in the nominal interest rate aect banks cost of capital and lending using branch level data on the universe of u s banks we show that following an increase in the fed funds rate deposit spreads increase by more and supply falls more in areas with less deposit competition we control for changes in banks lending opportunities by comparing branches of the same bank we control for changes in macroeconomic conditions by showing that deposit spreads widen immediately after a rate change and even if this change is fully anticipated our results imply that monetary policy has a signicant impact on how the nancial system is funded on the quantity of safe and liquid assets it produces and on its provision of loans to the real economy

interactions between the power and green certificate markets abstract the current trend of liberalising the power markets is combined with ambitious deployment plans for power production based on renewable energy supplies a new policy scheme to ensure this extension has been developed in the form of a green certificate system with a politically determined target of deployment in such a system producers of renewably based electricity receive tradable certificates in proportion to the electricity they produce the producer can thereby sell these certificates and receive additional revenue apart from the power price this paper studies the price and consumption effects of such a system with a simple model we show that the effects are ambiguous this ambiguity is caused by the interaction between the two markets therefore the green certificate system is difficult to manage if the state has parallel energy targets such as a desired deployment of renewably based energy and a stabilisation or reduction of the energy consumption in addition this complicates the regulation through a deployment target of renewably based power production as the regulator has to be aware of the different effects which follow a specific target until now these effects have not been considered in the analyses of the green certificate system when introducing the system even though it might have considerable consequences for the success of the system

a capacity investment model of wind power with uncertain supply price under high penetration rate abstract with the rapid development of renewable energy the proportion of wind power in power supply has grown significantly also it influences the power price fluctuation since the marginal cost of wind power is almost zero the growth of wind power s penetration rate has led to a crowding out effect and challenged traditional power generation technology substantially reducing the power price in the market in perfect competition market the real time balance between supply and demand of power is regulated by the real time power price fluctuation so this paper models the intermittence of wind power as uncertain supply and develops a capacity investment model under the uncertainties of both supply and demand we introduce priority dispatch elasticity to describe the crowding out effect and take the power price to be endogenous in order to model the situation of high penetration rate we compare the optimal wind power capacity decision under the strategy of priority grid connection and abandoned power management our results show that optimal capacity investment is inversely related to priority dispatch elasticity under both strategies however the profit from power generation is always higher when adopting the abandoned power management strategy

reputation and competition this paper shows how competition generates reputation building behavior in repeated interactions when the product quality observed by consumers is a noisy signal of firms effort level there are two types of firms and good firms try to distinguish themselves from bad firms although consumers get convinced that firms which are repeatedly successful in providing high quality are good firms competition endogenously generates the outside option inducing disappointed consumers to leave firms this threat of exit induces good firms to choose high effort allowing good reputations to be valuable but its uncompromising execution forces good firms out of the market jel c7 d8

financial risks for green electricity investors and producers in a tradable green certificate market this paper analyzes financial risks in a market for tradable green certificates tgc from two perspectives existing renewable producers and potential investors in new renewable electricity generation capacity the equilibrium pricing mechanism for a consumer based tgc market is described and a market with wind turbines as the sole renewable technology is analyzed in this framework tgc prices and fluctuations in production from wind turbines will be negatively correlated and as a result tgc price fluctuations can actually help decrease the total financial risk based on this recognition analytical expressions for revenue variance minimizing trading strategies are derived and an analysis of the demand and supply for financial hedging is used to show that forward contracts will be traded at a risk premium

monetary policy as financial stability regulation this paper develops a model that speaks to the goals and methods of financialstability policies there are three main points first from a normative perspective the model defines the fundamental market failure to be addressed namely that unregulated private money creation can lead to an externality in which intermediaries issue too much short term debt and leave the system excessively vulnerable to costly financial crises second it shows how in a simple economy where commercial banks are the only lenders conventional monetary policy tools such as open market operations can be used to regulate this externality while in more advanced economies it may be helpful to supplement monetary policy with other measures third from a positive perspective the model provides an account of how monetary policy can influence bank lending and real activity even in a world where prices adjust frictionlessly and there are other transactions media besides bank created money that are outside the control of the central bank

the declining credit quality of u s corporate debt myth or reality in recent years the number of downgrades in corporate bond ratings has exceeded the number of upgrades leading some to conclude that the credit quality of u s corporate debt has declined however an alternative explanation of this apparent decline in credit quality is that the rating agencies are now using more stringent standards in assigning ratings an ordered probit analysis of a panel of firms from 1978 through 1995 suggests that rating standards have indeed become more stringent implying that at least part of the downward trend in ratings is the result of changing standards bond ratings play a key role in corporate financing and investment decisions a corporation that can issue higher rated bonds usually receives better terms than one that can issue only lower rated bonds by law or policy some investors can purchase only bonds with an investment grade rating a restriction which in some asset pricing models would affect the relative prices of financial assets numerous articles in the popular press have presumed that the credit quality of the debt of u s corporations has been declining over the last couple of decades the comprehensive study by lucas and lonski 1992 of moody s rating changes of corporate debt is consistent with this presumption to cite their statistics in 1970 moody s downgraded 21 issues and upgraded 23 issues but over the following years the number of bonds downgraded began to exceed by substantial margins the number of bonds upgraded and by 1990 moody s downgraded 301 issues and upgraded only 61 their study includes both investment and noninvestment grade bonds but internal data from donaldson lufkin jenrette confirm that this trend also applies to investment grade bonds alone in a somewhat different context grundy 1997 documents similar trends in the ratings of preferred shares over the 1965 to 1990 period as the credit quality of a firm s corporate debt decreases that firm will face a greater probability of financial distress which at the extreme translates into bankruptcy there is some debate as to the effect of financial dis

structural shifts in credit rating standards i examine the time series variation in corporate credit rating standards from 1985 to 2007 a divergent pattern exists between investment grade and speculative grade rating standards from 1985 to 2002 as investment grade standards tighten and speculative grade loosen in 2002 a structural shift occurs toward more stringent ratings holding characteristics constant firms experience a drop of 1 5 notches in ratings due to tightened standards from 2002 to 2007 credit spread tests suggest that the variation in standards is not completely due to changes in the economic climate rating standards affect credit spreads loose ratings are associated with higher default rates

aiming low and achieving it a long term analysis of a renewable policy in chile abstract we use an integrated resource planning model to assess the costs of meeting a 70 renewables target by 2050 in chile this model is equivalent to a long term equilibrium in electricity and renewable energy certificate rec markets under perfect competition we consider different scenarios of demand growth resource eligibility e g large hydropower and transmission system configuration our numerical results indicate that the sole characteristics of the available renewable resources in the country and reductions in technology costs will provide sufficient economic incentives for private investors to supply a fraction of renewables larger than 70 for a broad range of scenarios meaning that the proposed target will likely remain a symbolic government effort increasing transmission capacity between the northern and central interconnected systems could reduce total system cost by 400 million per year and increase the equilibrium share of nonconventional renewable energy ncre in the system from 45 to 52 without the need for any additional policy incentive surprisingly imposing a 70 of ncre by 2050 results in a rec price lower than the noncompliance fine used for the current target of 20 of ncre by 2025 the latter of which represents the country s maximum willingness to pay for the attributes of electricity supplied from ncre resources

ratings shopping and asset complexity a theory of ratings inflation abstract many identify inflated credit ratings as one contributor to the recent financial market turmoil we develop an equilibrium model of the market for ratings and use it to examine possible origins of and cures for ratings inflation in the model asset issuers can shop for ratings observe multiple ratings and disclose only the most favorable before auctioning their assets when assets are simple agencies ratings are similar and the incentive to ratings shop is low when assets are sufficiently complex ratings differ enough that an incentive to shop emerges thus an increase in the complexity of recently issued securities could create a systematic bias in disclosed ratings despite the fact that each ratings agency produces an unbiased estimate of the asset s true quality increasing competition among agencies would only worsen this problem switching to an investor initiated ratings system alleviates the bias but could collapse the market for information

interactions of a tradable green certificate market with a tradable permits market abstract the reduction of greenhouse gas ghg emissions is an important goal in the energy and environmental policies of the european union eu and its member states according to a recent directive proposal from the eu commission the inclusion of renewable technologies is one of the important ways to achieve this emission reduction more policy instruments are on hand to pursue this objective frequently discussed currently is the establishing of a market for tradable permits for co2 emissions to achieve emission reductions in the power industry in parallel with this is the introduction of a green certificate market to promote the development of renewables if these two instruments are brought into play at the same time two separate markets with two individual targets will co exist in a number of countries with a focus on the green certificate market this paper discusses how these two markets may interact with each other in international trade three different cases are analysed 1 a green certificate market without any tradable permits scheme 2 a green certificate market in combination with a tradable permits scheme based on grandfathering and finally 3 a green certificate market in combination with a tradable permits bidding scheme emphasis is placed on analysing the pricing mechanisms in international trade at the green certificate and tradable permits market in relation to the value of the reductions in ghg emissions actually achieved the influence of the permits scheme on the spot market price of electricity is shown and the benefits of trading green certificates compared to a domestic implementation of renewable technologies are discussed the main conclusion is that only if a green certificate market is combined with a tradable permit scheme based on a bidding procedure will trade in certificates be equivalent to the domestic development of renewables using the bidding system no other country will have to pay for co2 reductions in the home country of the renewable development as would otherwise be the case if a tradable permit system based on grandfathering were introduced or even worse if no tradable permits were introduced at all finally it must be stated that even if the green certificate market were introduced alongside with a tradable permit bidding system there still would be no incentives for international certificate trade on account of the need for ghg reductions in the version of the green certificate market discussed in this paper no ghg credits are attached to certificates this means that the development of renewables will add to ghg reductions only in those countries where the plants are established no matter what kind of tradable permit scheme is adopted

when renewable portfolio standards meet cap and trade regulations in the electricity sector market interactions profits implications and policy redundancy emission trading programs c t and renewable portfolio standards rps are two common tools used by policymakers to control ghg emissions in the energy and other energy intensive sectors little is known however as to the policy implications resulting from these concurrent regulations especially given that their underlying policy goals and regulatory schemes are distinct this paper applies both an analytical model and a computational model to examine the short run implications of market interactions and policy redundancy the analytical model is used to generate contestable hypotheses while the numerical model is applied to consider more realistic market conditions we have two central findings first lowering the co2 c t cap might penalize renewable units and increasing the rps level could sometimes benefit coal and oil and make natural gas units worse off second making one policy more stringent would weaken the market incentive which the other policy relies upon to attain its intended policy target

did credit rating agencies make unbiased assumptions on cdos article appears in papers and proceedings of the 123rd annual meeting of the amerian economic association denver co usa 6 9 january 2011

cross listed bonds information asymmetry and conservatism in credit ratings we propose information asymmetry as an additional explanation for rating conservatism because information asymmetry is likely higher for cross listed bonds than for u s bonds we expect and find that cross listed bonds are rated more conservatively than u s domestic bonds at issuance further cross listed bonds receive less frequent upgrades and take longer to be upgraded after issuance because lower ratings might also reflect higher default risk based on agencies private information we conduct additional tests to discriminate between the rating conservatism and private information explanations the results are consistent with ratings conservatism and inconsistent with the private information explanation

supply amount and marginal price of renewable electricity under the renewables portfolio standard in japan abstract the renewables portfolio standard rps in japan requires that approximately 1 35 of each retail supplier s electricity sales in fy2010 come from renewable energy sources res for example photovoltaics wind biomass geothermal and small hydropower to help retail suppliers and renewable generators develop effective strategies this study provides a quantitative analysis of the impact of this measure we assume the supply conditions for electricity generation from renewable energy sources res e based on regional resource endowments and we derive the cost effective compositions of renewable portfolios res e certificate prices and additional costs to retail suppliers the future prospects of res e are assessed based on technology region and year up to fy2010 the analysis reveals that wind power and biomass power generated from municipal waste will provide the majority of the total supply of res e under the rps it also indicates that the marginal price of res e certificates will be approximately 5 8 jpy kwh 5 2 usc kwh in fy2010 in the case wherein the marginal price of electricity is assumed to be 4 jpy kwh 3 6 usc kwh in order to elaborate on this further sensitivity analyses for some parameters of res and the price of electricity are provided the dynamic supply curves of res e certificates are also indicated

discretionary ratings and the pricing of subprime mortgage backed securities using a dataset of home equity loan securities issued up to june 2007 and rated by moody s and or sp however these alternative thresholds do not appear to play a role as relevant as that of the ig sg boundary rating bias is also found to have an asymmetric impact on spreads the relevance of actual over expected ratings is greater for tranches receiving evaluations that are higher rather than lower than expected taken together these pieces of empirical evidence point toward ratings based regulation as an important explanation for the observed mispricing of structured finance products

renewable energy certificates recs in india a performance analysis and future outlook abstract well designed renewable energy re policies and their effective regulation is the key to promote re generation in the world renewable energy certificate rec mechanism is a market based policy instrument which facilitates renewable energy purchase obligations rpos in order to increase re generation in a country the recently conceived and implemented rec mechanism in india attempts to involve various stakeholders in an economically efficient manner and has been effective in its first year of operation the paper commences with the background and the genesis of rec mechanism in india it characterises the rec trading mechanism and analyses the performance of the rec market for the fy 2011 12 comparing the financial viability for sale of re by project developers in certain key states the paper shows that rec mechanism is more profitable than entering into a power purchase agreement ppa for sale of re at preferential tariff feed in tariffs thus the rec market which has attained a size of 2 3 billion inr in its first year of existence is forecasted to grow manifold in the future and the paper attempts to forecast the market size in near term further analysis of the rec market reveals that although there are inherent advantages of the rec mechanism over other methods of promoting growth of re the market is currently subject to various distortions and the paper suggests few steps for correcting these distortions by appropriate market re design the paper concludes that the rec market mechanism has gained momentum and can effectively promote re generation in an economically efficient manner with benefits to all stakeholders provided it is strictly implemented and continuous corrections are given in the right direction by the market regulator

market power in renewable portfolio standards abstract renewable portfolio standard rps which requires a certain percentage of electricity production from renewables has received considerable attention one emerging issue is the possibility of strategic behavior in the renewable energy certificate credit rec market and its spillover effects on the electricity market this paper develops dominant firm competitive fringe models that account for market power we show that market power could have significant impacts on the rec and power prices in particular when a nonrenewable generator is a dominant firm and a renewable generator is a competitive fringe the nonrenewable firm has a strong incentive to lower the rec price even to zero for avoiding rec costs the zero rec price would negate price impacts in the power market thereby mitigating market power of the dominant firm however this could lead to an underinvestment in renewables in the long run as subsidies received by renewables in form of recs vanish therefore regulatory agencies need to carefully oversee the market performance to ensure a healthy development of renewable industries under the rps policies

cluster sample methods in applied econometrics inference methods that recognize the clustering of individual observations have been available for more than 25 years brent moulton 1990 caught the attention of economists when he demonstrated the serious biases that can result in estimating the effects of aggregate explanatory variables on individual specific response variables the source of the downward bias in the usual ordinary least squares ols standard errors is the presence of an unobserved state level effect in the error term more recently john pepper 2002 showed how accounting for multi level clustering can have dramatic effects on t statistics while adjusting for clustering is much more common than it was 10 years ago inference methods robust to cluster correlation are not used routinely across all relevant settings in this paper i provide an overview of applications of cluster sample methods both to cluster samples and to panel data sets

the effect of financial constraints technological progress and long term contracts on tradable green certificates tradable green certificates tgcs have recently become a diffuse instrument to support renewable electricity in oecd countries although it is perhaps too early to draw a conclusive judgement on the effectiveness of this instrument in increasing renewable capacity and decreasing the price of certificates one view in the literature maintains that long term contracts are of particular importance for tgcs to be effective this paper contributes to this debate by analysing how financial constraints and technological progress can induce investors to hold pessimistic expectations of their ability to sell green certificates and still make a profit clearly these expectations will prevent investors from building new capacity to fulfil the quota comprised in tgcs and will keep the price of certificates traded in the market high as this kind of expectation is not influenced by most design features of tgcs one can conclude that long term contracts are particularly important in determining the effectiveness and cost effectiveness of these instruments some attention should therefore be paid to the features of the tgcs which induce obliged parties to offer long term contracts to renewable generators

bank ratings what determines their quality this paper examines the quality of credit ratings assigned to banks by the three largest rating agencies we interpret credit ratings as relative assessments of creditworthiness and define a new ordinal metric of rating error based on banks expected default frequencies our results suggest that on average large banks receive more positive bank ratings particularly from the agency to which the bank provides substantial securitization business these competitive distortions are economically significant and contribute to perpetuate the existence of too big to fail banks we also show that overall differential risk weights recommended by the basel accords for investment grade banks bear no significant relationship to empirical default probabilities harald hau sam langfield and david marques ibanez

the main support mechanisms to finance renewable energy development considering that the major part of greenhouse gases is carbon dioxide there is a global concern aimed at reducing carbon emissions additionally major consumer countries are looking for alternati

credit ratings and the evolution of the mortgage backed securities market gse backed mortgage backed securities mbs market lies at the heart of the 2007 2009 global financial crisis this market both fueled and was fueled by the expansion of subprime credit and the housing boom we study the role of the three primary rating agencies moody s s p and fitch in the expansion of the mbs market rating agencies play an important role in all fixed income markets in part because they have access to privileged information on securities and their issuers a privilege protected from regulations such as regulation fair disclosure reg fd the agencies however have received sharp criticism for their ratings practices in the mbs market many critics point to a potential conflict in rating agencies fees and income structure instead of being compensated by the investors who consume their product issuers pay the rating agencies the conflict of interest hypothesis thus stipulates that agencies may provide unduly favorable ratings especially to large issuers who bring and could potentially take away substantial revenues the risk of lost reputation and hence lost future profits potentially offsets the conflict of interest problem because this industry has just three dominant players loss of reputation

ratings hardwiring and asset prices this paper discusses the asset pricing implications of ratings hardwiring the latter is defined as the mechanical response of trading decisions to changes in ratings this issue is studied within a noisy rational expectations framework of asset pricing under asymmetric information in which traders specialize in different driving factors of asset payoffs and interact with others who mechanically link their asset supply to ratings we show that ratings hardwiring leads to predictable supply shocks and induces informed traders to overreact to new information thus creating a channel through which shocks are amplified and prices become less informative and more volatile

regulating a monopolist with unknown costs we consider the problem of how to regulate a monopolistic firm whose costs are unknown to the regulator the regulator s objective is to maximize a linear social welfare function of the consumers surplus and the firm s profit in the optimal regulatory policy prices and subsidies are designed as functions of the firm s cost report so that expected social welfare is maximized subject to the constraints that the firm has nonnegative profit and has no incentive to misrepresent its costs we explicitly derive the optimal policy and analyze its properties in their classic papers dupuit 2 and hotelling 5 considered pricing policies for a bridge that had a fixed cost of construction and zero marginal cost they demonstrated that the pricing policy that maximizes consumer well being is to set price equal to marginal cost and to provide a subsidy to the supplier equal to the fixed cost so that a firm would be willing to provide the bridge this first best solution is based on a number of informational assumptions first the demand function is assumed to be known to both the regulator and to the firm while the assumption of complete information may be too strong the assumption that information about demand is as available to the regulator as it is to the firm does not seem unnatural a second informational assumption is that the regulator has complete information about the cost of the firm or at least has the same information about cost as does the firm this assumption is unlikely to be met in reality since the firm would be expected to have better information about costs than would the regulator as weitzman has stated an essential feature of the regulatory environment i am trying to describe is uncertainty about the exact specification of each firm s cost function in most cases even the managers and engineers most closely associated with production will be unable to precisely specify beforehand the cheapest way to generate various hypothetical output levels because they are yet removed from the production process the regulators are likely to be vaguer still about a firm s cost function 12 p 684 as this observation suggests it is natural to expect that a firm would have better information regarding its costs than would a regulator the purpose of this paper is to develop an optimal regulatory policy for the case in which the regulator does not know the costs of the firm one strategy that a regulator could use in the absence of full information about costs is to give the firm the title to the total social surplus and to delegate the pricing decision to the firm in pursuing its own interests which would then be to maximize the total social surplus the firm would adopt the same marginal cost pricing strategy that the regulator would have imposed if the regulator had

power sector reform in orissa an ex post analysis of the causal factors abstract from the early 1990s dramatic changes have been taking place in the structure of electricity supply industry esi worldwide the primary reasons for electricity sector reform has however been different for industrialised and developing countries the objective of this paper is to study and identify various factors leading to power sector reform in developing countries the restructuring of orissa state electricity board in india was used as a case study in identifying the various factors the factors that result in implementation of restructuring are a contextual factors they are the primary drivers for initiating reform the performance of the utility and the conditionalities of the lending agencies are contextual factors b trigger factor it is the determining factor that creates a compelling necessity to undergo restructuring the inability of the government to continue to support the utility acts as the trigger factor c facilitating factors they act as facilitators for initiating reform support of the government absence of a powerful lobby and the support of the top management are facilitating factors