organizational change and hysteresis in british manufacturing industry a perspective from the donovan commission report labor productivity in british manufacturing industry rose significantly during the severe recession of the early 1980s contrary to historical and international parallels furthermore labor productivity continued to rise during the rest of the decade despite the return of output to its pre 1980 level the author explains these stylized facts by analyzing wage work rule negotiations as a three person noncooperative bargaining game in which workers with different skills negotiate independently this model attempts to capture the insights of a royal commission on industrial relations the author also argues that this explanation of the stylized facts is consistent with the available evidence copyright 1995 by the london school of economics and political science

what has happened to union recognition in britain this paper examines the determinants of establishment level union recognition status using data from the three workplace industrial relations surveys of 1980 1984 and 1990 our theoretical approach argues that product and labour market variables dated at or around the establishment s setup should be considered the crucial determinants of recognition status confirmation of these predictions is found for private sector manufacturing establishments in the econometric analysis of particular interest are i the nonlinear relationship between historic industry quasi rents and recognition status and the stability of this aspect of the model over the three data sets and ii a marked downward shift in recognition probabilities that occurred during the 1980s which seems to be largely a consequence of the failure to organize new establishments set up in the 1980s

does privatization remove restrictive working practices evidence from uk establishments this study investigates the links between privatization and changes in working practices using data from the uk 1990 workplace employees relations survey privatization raises the probability of an establishment of experiencing reduced job demarcation and or increased flexibility in the use of the workforce by managers after exploration no clear association is found between ownership and the level of restrictive working practices

how robust are popular models of nominal frictions this paper analyzes three popular models of nominal price and wage frictions to determine which best ts post war u s data we construct a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium dsge model and use maximum likelihood to estimate each model s parameters because previous research nds that the conduct of monetary policy and the behavior of in ation changed in the early 1980s we examine two distinct sample periods using a bayesian pseudo odds measure as a means for comparison a sticky price and wage model with dynamic indexation best ts the data in the early sample period whereas either a sticky price and wage model with static indexation or a sticky information model best ts the data in the late sample period our results suggest that price and wage setting behavior may be sensitive to changes in the monetary policy regime if true the evaluation of alternative monetary policy rules may be even more complicated than previously believed

collective agreements wages and firms cohorts evidence from central europe using a large matched employer employee data set the authors investigate the impact of company and industry collective bargaining agreements on wages in the czech republic hungary and poland ce3 they also examine the changing characteristics of the union wage premium in different cohorts of establishments their results challenge the common idea of weak unions in the ce3 by revealing a union wage premium whose characteristics depend on the level at which collective bargaining occurs they find that industry agreements increase wages for low skilled workers while company agreements increase medium and high skilled wages their second finding is that the union wage premium is unevenly distributed between cohorts with substantial cross country variation wage premiums are concentrated in the transitional cohorts in the czech republic and poland and to a lesser extent in the pre transitional cohort in hungary

bargaining and the timing of investment the joint determination of the timing of investment and wage bargaining is modelled two cases are considered a there is an alternating offer bargaining game over binding wage contracts and production is possible only when agreement is reached b there are no binding contracts so revenue is divided in period by period bargaining post investment investment can occur earlier in case b than in case a and the equilibrium in case b can pareto dominate the equilibrium with binding contracts these conclusions depend on players discount factors

union retreat and regional economic performance the uk experience monastiriotis v 2007 union retreat and regional economic performance the uk experience regional studies 41 1 14 a panel of regional data is used to investigate the impact the well documented decline in trade unionism in the uk had on the economic performance of its regions the analysis departs from the traditional firm level and cross sectional analyses and looks at the economy wide effects of unionism the findings provide evidence in line with theory that predicts that unions will increase wages and unemployment but they also indicate that unionism is positively related to productivity and incomes although in all cases the effects are non linear it is concluded that unionism is not necessarily a burden for the economy so long that the beneficial wage productivity effects outweigh the negative effects on employment monastiriotis v 2007 le declin syndical et la performance economique regionale etude de cas du r u regional studies 41 1 14 on emploie des donnees regionales provenant d un

how pervasive is earnings management evidence from a structural model although researchers often view earnings management as being widespread measuring the cost and level of earnings management is a nontrivial task we derive a measure of earnings management cost an

the impact of international outsourcing on unionization and wages evidence from the apparel export sector in central america it is often assumed that manufacturing workers in developing countries as recipients of outsourced jobs would achieve economic benefits and organizational power the author argues that job growth in developing countries through outsourcing to competing firms has often actually resulted in declining unionization and lower wage rates relative to traditional integrated manufacturing firms using time series data on union membership from 1980 2003 for honduras and el salvador as well as 2004 household survey data for el salvador he examines the determinants of unionization rates and wages in the manufacturing sectors he finds that that competitive outsourcing hurts labor at the plant level in three ways 1 it reduces labor s strike leverage by geographically dispersing the production process 2 it increases the threat of plant mobility by decreasing plant level investments and 3 it increases labor costs relative to total costs which creates an incentive for employers to keep wages low and unions out

optimal monetary policy responses to relative price changes abstract an optimizing model with a flexible price sector and a sticky price sector is presented to analyze the effects of relative price changes on inflation fluctuations the relative price of the flexible price good represents a shift parameter of the new keynesian phillips curve the optimal monetary policy is to target sticky price inflation rather than a broad inflation measure although stabilizing the relative price around its efficient value is one of the appropriate goals of the central bank stabilizing sticky price inflation is sufficient for achieving this goal an optimal monetary policy for a small open economy is also discussed

the economic consequences of discrete recognition and continuous measurement abstract discrete recognition is a long standing and ubiquitous accounting practice but it has been widely criticized for suppressing information and inducing accounting motivated transactions we study a model to examine the economic consequences of shifting away from discrete recognition to a continuous measurement approach without manipulation discrete recognition is less informative than the continuous approach however the continuous regime induces more manipulation the equilibrium informativeness is determined by both the accounting standard and endogenous manipulation discrete recognition is more informative than its continuous counterpart precisely when manipulation is a severe threat we respond to the recent call in kothari ramanna and skinner 2010 for using positive accounting theory to explain certain long standing accounting practices we also discuss the model s implications for fair value accounting

contracting theory and accounting abstract this paper reviews agency theory and its application to accounting issues i discuss the formulation of models of incentive problems caused by moral hazard and adverse selection problems i review theoretical research on the role of performance measures in compensation contracts and i compare how information is aggregated for compensation purposes versus valuation purposes i also review the literature on communication including models where the revelation principle does not apply so that nontruthful reporting and earnings management can take place the paper also discusses capital allocation within firms including transfer pricing and cost allocation problems

market exit through divestment the effect of accounting bias on competition we analyze the effect of accounting bias on the competition and market structure of an industry in our model firms interim accounting reports on investment projects may contain bias introduced by the mandatory accounting system we find that this bias strictly decreases firms profits when investors do not have an abandonment option but different results emerge when we allow the investors to divest in the interim specifically a conservative accounting regime may increase the likelihood of projects being discontinued inducing some firms to exit from the product market and leaving rivals to capture their market share a conservative regime can thus soften market competition and result in ex ante higher investment payoff higher consumer surplus and higher total social welfare since industries often have common reporting standards we also identify the degrees of industry wide accounting bias that maximize the expected investor payoffs finally we allow for investors to coordinate their divestment

manual wage differentials collective bargaining and multi locational firms an analysis using northern ireland nes data harris r 1994 manual wage differentials collective bargaining and multilocational firms an analysis using northern ireland nes data reg studies 28 483 493 a number of studies have appeared in the literature which consider the impact on the wage distribution of for example gender and ethnic differences of union membership or coverage by collective agreements of firm size of belonging to the private vis a vis public sector of being self employed as opposed to an employee another potentially important determinant of wages is whether the firm employing an individual is locally owned or whether it is part of a multiregional or multinational organization which operates branches in various locations this paper sets out to investigate the size of this locational wage differential across all sectors for a region of the uk using a bivariate sample selectivity model where the choice of firm type i e locally owned or externally owned and union coverage are endogenous the results confirm that

accounting conservatism and firm investment efficiency abstract we argue that conservatism improves investment efficiency in particular we predict that it resolves debt equity conflicts facilitating a firm s access to debt financing and limiting underinvestment this permits the financing of prudent investments that otherwise might not be pursued our empirical results confirm these predictions we find that more conservative firms invest more and issue more debt in settings prone to underinvestment and that these effects are more pronounced in firms characterized by greater information asymmetries we also find that conservatism is associated with reduced overinvestment even for opaque investments such as research and development

forming priors for dsge models and how it affects the assessment of nominal rigidities abstract we discuss prior elicitation for the parameters of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium dsge models and provide a method for constructing prior distributions for a subset of these parameters from beliefs about steady state relationships and second moments of the endogenous variables the empirical application documents how the specification of the prior distribution affects our assessment of the relative importance of price and wage rigidities in a new keynesian dsge model

the effects of unions on organisational change and employment this paper investigates the association between unionism organizational change and employment using british data over 1980 84 union plants were more likely to have experienced organizational change this is likely to be due to both the once for all removal of restrictive practices and union voice effects the oft cited negative relationship between unionism and employment growth may well arise from the differential extent to which restrictive practices were removed in union plants during 1980 84 more importantly the authors present evidence suggesting that unions were associated with faster employment growth during the late 1970s copyright 1991 by royal economic society

the effect of the union wage differential on management opposition and union organizing success that large union wage differentials increase organization is incorrect for the united states today it is incorrect because organization is the joint decision of workers and management not a worker s decision while potential wage increases are a plus to workers they reduce profits and thus are a minus to management in an institutional setting in which management allocates significant resources to convince workers to vote against unions it is erroneous to analyze the effect of the union wage differential on organizing solely from the workers side just as it is erroneous to analyze any economic outcome solely in terms of one blade of the market scissors my claim is threefold

the contracting benefits of accounting conservatism to lenders and borrowers abstract this paper examines the ex post and ex ante benefits of accounting conservatism to lenders and borrowers in the debt contracting process i expect conservatism to benefit lenders ex post through the timely signaling of default risk as manifested by accelerated covenant violations and to benefit borrowers ex ante through lower initial interest rates consistent with these predictions i find that more conservative borrowers are more likely to violate debt covenants following a negative price shock and that lenders offer lower interest rates to more conservative borrowers

estimates of the sticky information phillips curve for the united states mankiw and reis 2002 have proposed a sticky information based phillips curve sipc to address some of the concerns with the sticky price based new keynesian phillips curve in this paper we present a methodology to empirically implement the sipc and estimate its key structural parameter the degree of information stickiness for the united states using this methodology we estimate average durations of information stickiness that range from three quarters on the low side to over seven quarters on the high side

monetary policy trend inflation and the great moderation an alternative interpretation with positive trend inflation the taylor principle does not guarantee a determinate equilibrium we provide new theoretical results on determinacy in new keynesian models with positive trend inflation and new empirical findings on the federal reserve s reaction function before and after the volcker disinflation to find that i while the fed likely satisfied the taylor principle before volcker the us economy was still subject to self fulfilling fluctuations in the 1970s ii the us economy switched to determinacy during the volcker disinflation and iii the switch reflected changes in the fed s response to macroeconomic variables and the decline in trend inflation jel e12 e23 e31 e32 e52

agency problems auditing and the theory of the firm some evidence agency problems auditing and the theory of the firm some evidenceauthor s ross l watts and jerold l zimmermansource journal of law and economics vol 26 no 3 oct 1983 pp 613 633published by the university of chicago pressstable url http www jstor org stable 725039accessed 29 06 2008 23 14

british unions in decline determinants of the 1980s fall in union recognition this examination of establishment level data from the workplace industrial relations surveys of 1980 1984 and 1990 shows that the proportion of british establishments that is workplaces in both the private and public sector that recognized unions for collective bargaining over pay and working conditions fell by almost 20 between 1980 and 1990 largely accountable for this decline was a much lower rate of union recognition in establishments founded in the 1980s than in previous years particularly in the private sector citing these findings as well as recent structural changes in employment in the british labor market such as the shift from manufacturing to services from manual to non manual employment and from full time to part time work and a government that continues to enact anti union legislation the authors foresee no reversal of unions decline in the 1990s

a quantitative comparison of sticky price and sticky information models of price setting i estimate sticky price and sticky information models of price setting for the united states via maximum likelihood techniques reaching several conclusions first the sticky price model fits best and captures inflation dynamics as well as reduced form equations once hybrid behavior is allowed second the importance of hybrid behavior in sticky price models is potentially consistent with a role for some information imperfections such as sticky information as a complement to nominal price rigidities finally the favorable results herein for the hybrid sticky price model when evaluated by statistics that summarize the relative fit of different models is consistent with the existing literature that is both supportive and dismissive of such models as this literature has largely ignored fit in evaluating such models many previous studies have focused on ancillary issues such as the standard errors associated with certain parameters or granger causality tests that may not provide much information about sticky price models

implications for gaap from an analysis of positive research in accounting based on extant literature we review the positive theory of gaap the theory predicts that gaap s principal focus is on control performance measurement and stewardship and that verifiability and conservatism are critical features of a gaap shaped by market forces we recognize the advantage of using fair values in circumstances where these are based on observable prices in liquid secondary markets but caution against expanding fair values to financial reporting more generally we conclude that rather than converging u s gaap with ifrs competition between the fasb and the iasb would allow gaap to better respond to market forces

a measurement approach to conservatism and earnings management this paper formalizes a two step representation of accounting measurement and uses it to formalize a general rationale for conservatism as a measurement principle a transaction s economic substance manifests itself in characteristics of the transaction and an accounting rule is a mapping from transaction characteristics to an accounting report managers who have stakes in the accounting report are able to influence transaction characteristics such earnings management is ex post rational for managers but ex ante inefficient to safeguard against such ex post opportunism the optimal ex ante accounting rule is conservative in the sense that it requires more verification of the transaction characteristics favorable to managers thus this rationale for conservatism is as general as the managers ability and incentive to inflate transaction characteristics by opening the black box of accounting measurement the two step representation also formalizes some classic accounting concepts such as relevance reliability verifiability verification and accounting motivated transactions

union status of young men in britain a decade of change previous empirical studies of individual union status in britain have been cross sectional in contrast we use longitudinal data from the national child development study to estimate the determinants of male trade union membership over the period 1981 1991 as suggested by union theories we find that it is important to control for unobserved individual heterogeneity and our preferred model allows for correlation of individual heterogeneity with observable variables our estimates reveal that the observed decline in very large workplaces and the contraction of the public sector explain about one third of the predicted decline in union membership over the period

estimating new keynesian phillips curves a full information maximum likelihood approach abstract the new keynesian phillips curve has recently become an important ingredient in monetary policy models however using limited information methods the empirical support for the new keynesian phillips curve appear to be mixed this paper argues by means of monte carlo simulations with a simple new keynesian sticky price model that single equations methods e g gmm are likely to produce imprecise and biased estimates then it is argued that estimating the model with full information maximum likelihood fiml is a useful way of obtaining better estimates finally a version of the model used in the monte carlo simulations is estimated on u s data with fiml and although the pure forward looking new keynesian phillips curve is rejected a version with both forward and backward looking components provides a reasonable approximation of u s inflation dynamics

union wage differentials product market influences and the division of rents this paper examines the extent to which product market conditions limit the ability of trade unions to establish wage differentials over nonunion pay the mean union pay differential is estimated to be of the order of 8 percent to 10 percent in establishments with some degree of product market power but zero in establishments facing competitive product market conditions when competitive conditions are faced a preentry closed shop and high union coverage of the industry are both required it is estimated that only 5 percent of the establishments in which there are significant differentials over nonunion pay face generally competitive product market conditions copyright 1990 by royal economic society

habit formation in consumption and its implications for monetary policy models this paper explores a monetary policy model with habit formation for consumers in which consumers utility depends in part on current consumption relative to past consumption the empirical tests developed in the paper show that one can reject the hypothesis of no habit formation with tremendous condence largely because the habit formation model captures the gradual hump shaped response of real spending to various shocks the paper then embeds the habit consumption specication in a monetary policy model and nds that the responses of both spending and inflation to monetary policy actions are signicantly improved by this modication jel d12 e52 e43

sticky information and sticky prices abstract in the u s and europe prices change at least once a year yet nominal macro shocks seem to have real effects lasting well beyond a year sticky information models as posited by mankiw and reis 2002 sticky information versus sticky prices a proposal to replace the new keynesian phillips curve quarterly journal of economics 117 1295 1328 sims 2003 implications of rational inattention journal of monetary economics 50 3 665 690 and woodford 2003 princeton university press princeton nj can reconcile micro flexibility with macro rigidity we simulate a sticky information model in which price setters update information on macro shocks less frequently than information on micro shocks we then examine price changes in the micro data underlying the u s cpi empirical price changes react to old information just as sticky information models predict

union status and double breasting at multinational companies in three liberal market economies the relationships among employee representation formal union status and employer strategies within and across institutional regimes offer a variegated landscape in the context of globalization key questions remain as to the relative weight of macro and micro level influences on union status at subsidiaries of multinational companies mncs this study analyzes data gathered through coordinated surveys of mnc subsidiaries in canada ireland and the united kingdom and tests the extent to which union status and double breasting depend on home country variation host country influences and particular organizational characteristics the authors find support for a combination of effects on both union status and double breasting further analyses test explicit variations on union status within each host context and support arguments that effects depend on the particularities of national industrial relations regimes

management by the numbers a formal approach to deriving informational and distributional properties of unmanaged earnings we explore the theoretical relation between earnings and market returns as well as the properties of earnings frequency distributions under the assumption that managers use unbiased accounting information to sequentially decide on real options their firms have and report generated earnings truthfully with the market pricing the firm based on those reported earnings we generate benchmarks against which empirically observed earnings returns relations and aggregate earnings distributions can be evaluated this parsimonious model shows a coherent set of results reported losses are less persistent than reported gains decision making diminishes the s shaped market response to earnings and earnings relate to returns asymmetrically in the way documented by basu 1997 furthermore the implied frequency distribution of aggregate earnings is neither symmetric nor necessarily single peaked instead it may exhibit a kink at zero and look similar to the plots reported by burgstahler and dichev 1997 however within our model none of these phenomena are due to reporting noise bias or some undesirable strategic managerial behavior they are the natural consequences of using past earnings as the basis for value increasing managerial decision making that in turn generates the future earnings on which future decisions will be based

economic consequences of accounting standards the lease disclosure rule change this accounting standard essentially rearranged capital lease disclosures from footnotes to the balance sheet mandated capitalization substantially altered key accounting ratios our results document a systematic substitution from capital leases to operating leases and nonlease sources of financing in addition lessees appear to reduce book leverage by increasing equity and reducing conventional debt the magnitudes of these responses are cross sectionally related to preadoption levels of footnoted capital leases

monetary policy for inattentive economies we offer a contribution to the analysis of optimal monetary policy we begin with a critical assessment of the existing literature arguing that most work is based on implausible models of inflation output dynamics we then suggest that this problem may be solved with some recent behavioral models which assume that price setters are slow to incorporate macroeconomic information into the prices they set a specific such model is developed and used to derive optimal policy in response to shocks to productivity and aggregate demand optimal policy is price level targeting base drift in the price level which is implicit in the inflation targeting regimes currently used in many central banks is not desirable in this model when shocks to desired markups are added optimal policy is flexible targeting of the price level that is the central bank should allow the price level to deviate from its target for a while in response to these supply shocks but it should eventually return the price level to its target path optimal policy can also be described as an elastic price standard the central bank allows the price level to deviate from its target when output is expected to deviate from its natural rate

union certification success under voting versus card check procedures evidence from british columbia 1978 1998 the author estimates the impact of compulsory election laws on certification success using data on over 6 500 private sector certifications from british columbia over the years 1978 98 a unique quasi experimental design is used by exploiting two changes in the union recognition law first in 1984 the introduction of mandatory elections and second in 1993 the repeal of elections and their replacement by the original card check procedure the author also estimates the effectiveness of management opposition tactics across union recognition regimes success rates declined by an average of 19 percentage points during the voting regime and then increased by about the same amount when card checks were re instituted the results indicate that the mandatory election law can account for virtually the entire decline in addition the findings suggest that management opposition was twice as effective under elections as under card checks

how well does sticky information explain the dynamics of inflation output and real wages abstract this paper finds that a model with sticky information is less successful than a standard model featuring nominal rigidities inflation indexation and habits in generating the dynamics triggered by technology shocks as estimated by a vector autoregression using u s macroeconomic data the real wage responses after a permanent increase in productivity clearly favor the standard model the sticky information model fails to replicate the observed inertial response in the real wage whereas the standard model relies on inflation indexation in wage setting to achieve a better fit the two models are however statistically equivalent after a shock in monetary policy

technology shocks in the new keynesian model in the new keynesian model preference cost push and monetary shocks all compete with the real business cycle model s technology shock in driving aggregate fluctuations a version of this model estimated via maximum likelihood points to these other shocks as being more important for explaining the behavior of output inflation and interest rates in the postwar u s data these results weaken the links between the current generation of new keynesian models and the real business cycle models from which they were originally derived they also suggest that federal reserve officials have often faced difficult trade offs in conducting monetary policy

accounting conservatism and the efficiency of debt contracts in this paper we examine how accounting conservatism affects the efficiency of debt contracting we develop the statistical and informational properties of accounting reports under varying degrees of conditional and unconditional accounting conservatism consistent with basu s 1997 description of differ ential verifiability standards optimal debt covenants and interest rates on debt are derived from a natural tension between debt holders and equity claimants we show how optimal covenants vary with the degree of conservatism and de rive an efficiency metric that depends on the degree of conservatism we find that accounting conservatism actually decreases the efficiency of debt contracts contrary to the suggestions of watts 2003 and contrary to the hypothesis in numerous empirical studies

optimal monitoring policies in agencies this article considers a principal agent problem in which the principal has access to a costly monitoring technology that can be used to acquire additional information about the agent s actions subsequent to observing the agent s output although randomized monitoring policies are feasible we show that in a variety of contexts optimal monitoring policies are deterministic and lower tailed that is there exists some critical level of output such that further investigation of the agent s actions occurs if and only if output falls below this critical level

trade unions and employment change an analysis of british establishment data few explanations of the changing employment structures of industrialised countries have omitted some reference to the role of trade unions for some commentators it is the unions ability to raise wages above their natural market level that constitutes a brake on employment growth by increasing the employer s costs and making product prices uncompetitive for others it is the unions power to impose uneconomic working practices upon management that leads to decline or lack of growth of the organisation for a discussion see freeman and medoff 1984 mayhew 1983 empirical testing of these and other lines of explanation has been hampered in britain by lack of suitable datasets while employment data are detailed and widely available systematic and reliable information on the extent of trade union influence has been restricted to reported membership levels for broad industry groups see for example bain and price 1983 pencavel 1974 the coverage of collective bargaining derived from earnings surveys see for example mulvey 1976 layard metcalf and nickel1 1978 and the extent and frequency of strike action see for example smith et al 1978 j the availability of a new series of nationally representative surveys at the establishment level has enabled us to obtain new insights into the relationship between changes in employment and trade union organisation at the point where such relationships arguably occur the place of work the

accounting information in financial contracting the incomplete contract theory perspective this paper reviews theoretical and empirical work on financial contracting that is relevant to accounting researchers its primary objective is to discuss how the use of accounting information in contracts enhances contracting efficiency and to suggest avenues for future research we argue that incomplete contract theory broadens our understanding of both the role accounting information plays in contracting and the mechanisms through which efficiency gains are achieved by discussing its rich theoretical implications we expect incomplete contract theory to prove useful in motivating future research and in offering directions to advance our knowledge of how accounting information affects contract efficiency

what can survey forecasts tell us about information rigidities a lot we derive common and conflicting predictions from models in which agents face information constraints and then assess their validity using surveys of consumers firms central bankers and professional forecasters we document that mean forecasts fail to completely adjust on impact to shocks leading to statistically and economically significant deviations from the null of full information the dynamics of forecast errors after shocks are consistent with the predictions of models with information rigidities the conditional responses of forecast errors and disagreement among agents can also be used to differentiate between some of the most prominent models of information rigidities

is increased price flexibility stabilizing redux abstract what are the implications of increased price flexibility on output volatility in a simple dsge model we show analytically that more flexible prices always amplify output volatility for supply shocks and also amplify output volatility for demand shocks if monetary policy does not respond strongly to inflation more flexible prices often reduce welfare even under optimal monetary policy if full efficiency cannot be attained our results extend to a model with both sticky information and wages we estimate a quantitative dsge model using bayesian methods and using counterfactual experiments show that our results from the simple model continue to apply

five facts about prices a reevaluation of menu cost models are price decreases 3 the frequency of price increases covaries strongly with inflation whereas the frequency of price decreases and the size of price increases and price decreases do not 4 the frequency of price change is highly seasonal it is highest in the first quarter and then declines 5 we find no evidence of upwardsloping hazard functions of price changes for individual products we show that the first second and third facts are consistent with a benchmark menu cost model whereas the fourth and fifth facts are not

the transmission of monetary policy in a multisector economy this article constructs and estimates a sticky price dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with heterogeneous production sectors firms in different sectors vary in their price rigidity production technology and the combination of material and investment inputs in particular firms buy inputs from all sectors using the actual input output matrix and capital flow table of the u s economy by relaxing the standard assumption of symmetry this model allows idiosyncratic sectoral dynamics in response to monetary policy shocks the model is estimated by the generalized method of moments using sectoral and aggregate u s time series

optimal impairment rules abstract we study the optimal accounting policy of a financially constrained firm that pledges assets to raise debt capital for financing a risky project the accounting system provides information about the value of the collateral absent accounting regulation the optimal accounting system is conditionally conservative it recognizes an impairment loss if the asset value is below a certain threshold but never reports unrealized gains we describe the optimal impairment rule and the optimal precision of the accounting information and we provide comparative static results that lead to testable predictions on the determinants of impairment rules

testing the sticky information phillips curve abstract i consider the empirical evidence for the sticky information model relative to the basic sticky price model conditional on historical measures of inflation forecasts the estimated structural parameters are inconsistent with an underlying sticky information model and the sticky information phillips curve is statistically dominated by the new keynesian phillips curve i find that the poor performance of the sticky information approach is driven by two key elements first the sticky information model underestimates inflation in the 1970s and overestimates inflation since the 1980s second predicted inflation from the sticky information model is excessively smooth

what do technology shocks tell us about the new keynesian paradigm abstract researchers have used unanticipated changes to monetary policy to identify preference and technology parameters of macroeconomic models this paper uses changes in technology to identify the same set of parameters estimates based on technology shocks differ substantially from those based on monetary policy shocks in the post world war ii united states a positive technology shock reduces inflation and increases hours worked significantly and rapidly in both cases relative to policy shock identification technology shock identification implies i long duration durability in preferences instead of short duration habit ii built in inflation inertia disappears and price flexibility increases in response to technological improvement consumption durability increases hours worked because households temporarily increase labor supply to accumulate durables towards a new higher steady state level limited nominal rigidities allow inflation to fall because firms are able to immediately cut prices when households labor supply increases finally we consider alternative data constructions and econometric specifications we find that i and or ii hold in nearly every case

sticky price models and the natural rate hypothesis abstract a major criticism of standard specifications of price adjustment in models for monetary policy analysis is that they violate the natural rate hypothesis by allowing output to differ from potential in steady state in this paper we estimate a dynamic optimizing business cycle model whose price setting behavior satisfies the natural rate hypothesis the price adjustment specifications we consider are the sticky information specification of mankiw and reis sticky information versus sticky prices a proposal to replace the new keynesian phillips curve quarterly journal of economics 117 1295 1328 and the indexed contracts of christiano et al nominal rigidities and the dynamic effects of a shock to monetary policy journal of political economy 113 1 45 our empirical estimates of the real side of the economy are similar whichever price adjustment specification is chosen consequently the alternative model specifications deliver similar estimates of the u s output gap series but the empirical behavior of the gap series differs substantially from standard gap estimates

a tale of two rigidities sticky prices in a sticky information environment macroeconomic models with microeconomic foundations allow for comparisons with macro and micro empirical evidence this paper proposes a model wherein firms i acquire information infrequently generating sticky information mankiw and reis 2002 and ii face menu costs producing state dependent sticky prices i estimate parameters via indirect inference and show that under considerable real rigidity sticky prices in a sticky information environment are consistent with micro and macro evidence sticky prices not only help match micro data on price changes size and durations between adjustments they also improve the model s fit with the macro data as embodied in an empirical phillips curve

human resource management as a substitute for trade unions in british workplaces the authors use british workplace data for 1980 98 to examine whether increased human resource management hrm practices coincided with union decline consistent with the hypothesis that such practices act as a substitute for unionization two initial analyses show no important differences between union and non union sectors or between newer workplaces which are likelier to be non union and older ones in the pattern of hrm practices over time and the study s longitudinal analysis picks up no evidence of faster union decline in workplaces or industries that adopted hrm practices than in those that did not not only is the hypothesized substitution effect thus not supported but the authors even uncover some evidence of a complementarity between unions and hrm practices the authors conclude that increased use of hrm practices is probably not an important factor underpinning union decline in britain

has monetary policy become more effective we investigate the implications of changes in the structure of the u s economy for monetary policy effectiveness estimating a vector autoregression over the pre and post 1980 periods we provide evidence of a reduced effect of monetary policy shocks in the latter period we estimate a structural model that replicates well the economy s response in both periods and perform counterfactual experiments to determine the source of the change in the monetary transmission mechanism and in the economy s volatility we find that by responding more strongly to inflation expectations monetary policy has stabilized the economy more effectively in the post 1980 period

works councils and employment growth in german establishments using data from german manufacturing establishments this article examines the relationship between works councils and employment growth taking the endogeneity of councils into account the estimates show a positive growth effect of works councils this suggests that the performance enhancing voice role of german works councils dominates their monopoly role moreover the findings of this study support the hypothesis that workers are more likely to implement a council to protect their quasi rents when the establishment is facing a long term crisis copyright the author 2009 published by oxford university press on behalf of the cambridge political economy society all rights reserved oxford university press

estimation of dsge models when the data are persistent dynamic stochastic general equilibrium dsge models are often solved and estimated under specific assumptions as to whether the exogenous variables are difference or trend stationary however even mild departures of the data generating process from these assumptions can severely bias the estimates of the model parameters this paper proposes new estimators that do not require researchers to take a stand on whether shocks have permanent or transitory effects these procedures have two key features first the same filter is applied to both the data and the model variables second the filtered variables are stationary when evaluated at the true parameter vector the estimators are approximately normally distributed not only when the shocks are mildly persistent but also when they have near or exact unit roots simulations show that these robust estimators perform well especially when the shocks are highly persistent yet stationary in such cases linear detrending and first differencing are shown to yield biased or imprecise estimates

the thatcher miracle since 1979 productivity growth in britain has improved markedly compared with europe the turnaround in productivity growth has two main causes the british economy was subjected to a far more severe contraction of demand in 1980 81 than any other country this led to a new realism which was sustained by the legal changes in trade union power since 1979 there has been a worsening in the trade off between unemployment and inflation the poor unemployment inflation trade off is due to the neglect of skill training and education causing skill shortages and to the build up of long term unemployment which does little to restrain inflation this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed f this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

conservative accounting choices managers have sufficient discretion under generally accepted accounting principles gaap to adopt more or less conservative financial reporting policies in this paper we develop a signaling model to provide insight into managers decisions to be conservative in their accounting we provide conditions under which the market can use the manager s exercise of discretion to infer her private information about the future prospects of the firm and thus firm value under these conditions we also show that there are meaningful differences between earnings response coefficients for firms whose managers choose a conservative reporting policy and those whose managers do not finally we use our theoretical model to provide intuition for some established empirical results on earnings response coefficients

the relation between earnings and cash flows abstract a model of earnings cash flows and accruals is developed assuming a random walk sales process variable and fixed costs and that the only accruals are accounts receivable and payable and inventory the model implies earnings better predict future operating cash flows than current operating cash flows and the difference varies with the operating cash cycle also the model is used to predict serial and cross correlations of each firm s series the implications and predictions are tested on a 1337 firm sample over 1963 1992 both earnings and cash flow forecast implications and correlation predictions are generally consistent with the data

unionism and employment behaviour although there exists a large literature on the effects of trade unions upon wages there is no published work that uses microeconomic data on establishments to examine the employment consequences of unionism this paper addresses this issue with a recent british data set and shows that even after the addition of a substantial set of control variables there is a strong association between poor employment performance and the presence of trade unions the union employment growth differential is estimated at approximately 3 percent per annum copyright 1991 by royal economic society

monetary policy when potential output is uncertain understanding the growth gamble of the 1990s abstract t he fed kept interest rates low and essentially unchanged during the late 1990s despite a booming economy and record low unemployment these interest rates were accommodative by historical standards nonetheless inflation remained low how did the fed succeed in sustaining rapid economic growth without fueling inflation and inflationary expectations in retrospect it is evident that the productive capacity of the economy increased yet as events unfolded there was uncertainty about the expansion of the capacity of the economy and therefore about the sustainability of the fed s policy this paper provides an explanation for the success of the fed in accommodating growth with stable inflation in the late 1990s it shows that if the central bank is committed to reverse policy errors it makes because of unwarranted optimism inflation can remain in check even if the central bank keeps interest rates low because of this optimism in particular a price level target which is a simple way to model a commitment to offset errors can serve to anchor inflation even if the public does not share the central bank s optimism about shifts in potential output the paper shows that price level targeting is superior to inflation targeting in a wide range of situations the paper also provides econometric evidence that in contrast to earlier periods the fed has recently put substantial weight on the price level in setting interest rates moreover it shows that cpi announcement surprises lead to reversion in the price level finally it provides textual evidence that alan greenspan puts relatively more weight on the price level than inflation

productivity and trade unions in british manufacturing industry 1973 85 this paper uses panel data on british manufacturing industries between 1973 and 1985 to examine the relationship between productivity and labour organization it is shown that the relationship between unions and productivity levels is sensitive to the econometric specification the evidence points to there being no relationship in the 1970s when unions were more popular and a negative relationship from 1979 onwards we also find evidence that industrial concentration is associated with higher levels of productivity and this accounts for more of the productivity recovery after the recession in the early 1980s than the impact of trade unions the recession itself is shown to have had an impact on subsequent productivity growth we also suggest that the long run gains in productivity caused by the shakeout of 1980 81 may not have compensated for the loss in output at the time

trend inflation indexation and inflation persistence in the new keynesian phillips curve purely forward looking versions of the new keynesian phillips curve nkpc generate too little inflation persistence some authors add ad hoc backward looking terms to address this shortcoming we hypothesize that inflation per sistence results mainly from variation in the long run trend component of inflation which we attribute to shifts in monetary policy we derive a version of the nkpc that incorporates a time varying inflation trend and examine whether it explains the dynamics of inflation when drift in trend inflation is taken into account a purely forward looking version of the model fits the data well and there is no need for backward looking components jel e12 e31 e52 in this paper we consider the extent to which guillermo calvo s 1983 model of nominal price rigidities can explain inflation dynamics without relying on arbitrary backward looking terms in its baseline formulation the calvo model leads to a purely forward looking new keynesian

trade unions and training practices in british workplaces the authors use british establishment level data from the 1991 employers manpower and skills practices survey emsps and individual level data from the autumn 1993 quarterly labour force survey qlfs to investigate the links between training provision and workplace unionization both the probability of receiving training and the amount of training received are found to have been substantially higher in unionized than in nonunion workplaces the authors view these results as showing that trade unions can play an important role in developing and boosting skill formation in britain

discussion of an economic framework for conservative accounting and bushman and piotroski 2006 abstract we offer an economic framework for generating predictions about the demand for conservative accounting reports we define conservatism as more timely recognition of losses than gains as a result of the costs and benefits of reporting verifiable information by managers and or firms being asymmetric we also discuss bushman and piotroski s interpretation of the speeds of good news recognition and incremental bad news recognition in basu type regressions as separate signals about accounting conservatism finally we suggest avenues for future research that seeks to investigate the links between institutions and contracts and between contracts and conservatism

integrating sticky prices and sticky information abstract understanding the relationship between nominal and real variables most notably inflation and cyclical output is one of the fundamental questions of economics toward this understanding we develop a model that integrates sticky prices and sticky information a dual stickiness model we find that both rigidities are present in u s data we also show that the dual stickiness model s closest competitor is the hybrid new keynesian model for both models current inflation depends in part on last period s inflation the former model achieves this dependence endogenously through the interaction of the two rigidities rather than through backward looking behavior u s data support the dual stickiness model over the hybrid model because lagged expectations terms appear in the former s inflation euler equation finally we show that it is quantitatively important to distinguish between the two by simulating a dynamic equilibrium model under each of the two inflation equations

an analysis of value destruction in at t s acquisition of ncr abstract at t s 7 5 billion acquisition of ncr decreased the wealth of at t shareholders by between 3 9 billion and 6 5 billion and resulted in negative synergies of 1 3 to 3 0 billion we find that at t paid a documented 50 million and possibly as much as 500 million to satisfy pooling accounting thus boosting eps by roughly 17 but leaving cash flows unchanged we conclude that at t s decision to acquire ncr in what the market perceived as a value destroying transaction was related at least in part to the 1984 consent decree with the department of justice that led to the break up of at t

wage bargaining and monopsony this paper identifies three possible outcomes of higher relative firm bargaining power in a unionized firm facing an upward sloping labor supply curve the conventional regime with reduced wage and higher employment corresponds to firm bargaining power below a certain critical value a supply constrained regime where increased firm bargaining power reduces both wages and employment occurs when the bargaining power is above another critical level a novel result is that we identify a third regime with firm bargaining power between these critical levels where changes in relative bargaining power does not affect wages and employment

responders versus non responders a new perspective on heterogeneity this paper considers the implications of a particular type of heterogeneity one which characterizes a large number of economic environments but that has not received any systematic treatment in the literature the authors refer to this heterogeneity as responders versus nonresponders the paper begins by providing a general framework for the analysis of environments characterized by this heterogeneity and then shows how this framework can be used to help understand a wide variety of economic environments particular applications considered are near rationality network externalities and models of reputation copyright 1991 by royal economic society

union effects on productivity profits and growth has the long run arrived this article interprets literature examining union effects on economic performance production function studies indicate small overall union impacts on productivity positive effects where they exist appear to result from management response to decreased profit expectations and from a natural selection process lower profitability among unionized firms is well established more interesting is the possibility that unions appropriate quasi rents deriving from long lived tangible and intangible capital the connection between unions investment behavior and productivity growth emerges as a particularly fruitful line of empirical inquiry although it does not encourage a sanguine view of unionism s long run impact

the decline of labour market institutions and the rise in wage inequality in britain abstract at the same time as the role of labour market institutions declined very dramatically in britain there was a very sharp rise in wage inequality that since 1980 has increased at a faster pace than in most advanced countries britain in the 1980s and early 1990s therefore provides a very good testing ground for evaluating the importance of labour market institutions in explaining the evolution of the wage structure i look at this in terms of two institutions that have traditionally propped up wage levels at the bottom end of the wage distribution unions and minimum wages i find that their weakening has played an important part in the rise in wage inequality in britain

what measure of inflation should a central bank target this paper assumes that a central bank commits itself to maintaining an inflation target and then asks what measure of the inflation rate the central bank should use if it wants to maximize economic stability the paper first formalizes this problem and examines its microeconomic foundations it then shows how the weight of a sector in the stability price index depends on the sector s characteristics including size cyclical sensitivity sluggishness of price adjustment and magnitude of sectoral shocks when a numerical illustration of the problem is calibrated to u s data one tentative conclusion is that a central bank that wants to achieve maximum stability of economic activity should use a price index that gives

strategic interaction among heterogeneous price setters in an estimated dsge model abstract we consider a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model dsge in which firms follow one of four price setting regimes sticky prices sticky information rule of thumb or full information flexible prices the parameters of the model including the fraction of each type of firm are estimated by matching the moments of the observed variables of the model to those found in the data we find that sticky price firms and sticky information firms jointly account for over 80 of firms in the model we compare the performance of our hybrid model to pure sticky price and sticky information models along various dimensions including monetary policy implications

bias and the commitment to disclosure this paper studies the propensity of firms to commit to disclose information that is subsequently biased in the presence of other firms also issuing potentially biased information an important aspect of such an analysis is the fact that firms can choose whether to disclose or withhold information we show that allowing the number of disclosed reports to be endogenous introduces a countervailing force to some of the empirical predictions from the prior literature for example we find that as more firms issue reports or as the correlation across firms cash flows increases the firm biases its report less however when we treat firms disclosure choices as endogenous we show that the number of firms that commit to disclose decreases as the correlation across these cash flows increases and this in turn offsets the direct effect of the correlation on bias this paper was accepted by mary barth accounting

implications of rational inattention abstract a constraint that actions can depend on observations only through a communication channel with finite shannon capacity is shown to be able to play a role very similar to that of a signal extraction problem or an adjustment cost in standard control problems the resulting theory looks enough like familiar dynamic rational expectations theories to suggest that it might be useful and practical while the implications for policy are different enough to be interesting

on the relation between conservatism in accounting standards and incentives for earnings management this paper studies the role of conservative accounting standards in alleviating rational yet dysfunctional unobservable earnings manipulation we show that when accounting numbers serve both the valuation role in which potential investors use accounting reports to assess a firm s expected future payoff and the stewardship role in which current shareholders rely on the same reports to monitor their risk averse manager current firm owners have incentives to engage in earnings management such manipulation reduces accounting numbers stewardship value and leads to inferior risk sharing we then show that risk sharing and hence contract efficiency can be improved under a conservative accounting standard where absent earnings management accounting earnings represent true economic earnings with a downward bias compared with under an unbiased standard where absent earnings management accounting earnings represent true economic earnings without bias