producer subsidy equivalents for russian agriculture estimation and interpretation in this paper we present estimates of producer subsidy equivalents pses for russian agriculture over the 1992 94 period the estimated values are highly negative indicating that russian agriculture has been heavily taxed two types of taxation have been at work first government trade and price policies at the regional as well as the federal level have operated to keep domestic producer prices below world prices second deficient russian physical and institutional infrastructure has resulted in high domestic transaction costs for russian agricultural output since in competing with goods on the world market russian producers must bear all the costs of getting their output to final users the high transaction costs in an economic sense also tax domestic production the pse methodology was created to measure the effect on agricultural prices and incomes of government policies targeted specifically at agriculture to be consistent with standard methodology one should subtract out from the initial price gap estimates for russian agricultural output that part of the price differential caused by deficient domestic infrastructure an alternative approach though is based on recognition that the deficient infrastructure was in

the role of market forces in assuring contractual performance the conditions under which transactors can use the market repeat purchase mechanism of contract enforcement are examined increased price is shown to be a means of assuring contractual performance a necessary and sufficient condition for performance is the existence of price sufficiently above salvageable production costs so that the nonperforming firm loses a discounted steam of rents on future sales which is greater than the wealth increase from nonperformance this will generally imply a market price greater than the perfectly competitive price and rationalize investments in firm specific assets advertising investments thereby become a positive indicator of likely performance

economies of scale and barriers to entry dixit has recently presented a model in which established firms select capacity to discourage entry but cannot employ threats they would not rationally execute after entry entry deterrence in a slight modification of this model involves the classical limit price output under linear or concave demand however the capital cost of a firm of minimum efficient scale is an upper bound on the present value of the monopoly profit stream that can be shielded from entry it is argued that this suggests the general unimportance of entry barriers erected by scale economies

the impact of development on women a specific factors analysis abstract the specific factors model is employed in this paper as a means of explaining how economic development may serve to diminish women s welfare three changes associated with the development process are analyzed for their effect on women s real and relative wage 1 an expansion of trade induced by an improvement in the terms of trade 2 technological change and 3 an increase in female labor force participation

exercise behavior valuation and the incentive effects of employee stock options abstract we use a large database on eso exercises to document characteristics of exercise behavior and calibrate a utility based model for measuring how differences in exercise behavior are manifested in option values and incentives option values and incentives computed from the model calibrations are compared to those computed from models used to value tradable options our analysis provides guidance to both academics and practitioners about how differences in exercise behavior and model choice affect measures of eso values and incentives and underscores the importance of gaining a thorough understanding of the underlying economic forces that affect the behavior of eso holders

ambiguity in the cross section of expected returns an empirical assessment this article estimates and tests the smooth ambiguity model of klibanoff marinacci and mukerji based on stock market data we introduce a novel methodology to estimate the conditional expectation which characterizes the impact of a decision maker s ambiguity attitude on asset prices our point estimates of the ambiguity parameter are between 25 and 60 whereas our risk aversion estimates are considerably lower the substantial difference indicates that market participants are ambiguity averse furthermore we evaluate if ambiguity aversion helps explaining the cross section of expected returns compared with epstein and zin preferences we find that incorporating ambiguity into the decision model improves the fit to the data while keeping relative risk aversion at more reasonable levels supplementary materials for this article are available online

selection and influence interest groups and congressional voting on trade policy studies of the effects of interest groups on congressional roll call voting typically view party and ideology as competing factors and rely on a factoral model of interests or a sectoral model including only interest groups with a direct stake in the vote we depart from that strategy in several ways we define interest groups at the level of standard industrial classification two digit codes and observe the universe of interests for 1979 90 we use measures of geographically and nongeographically based economic interests to estimate the representative s party and ideology we also consider the factor endowments of individuals within a district to examine their impact on floor votes we then investigate the influence of these interests on members party affiliation and ideology as well as a pool of five floor votes on foreign trade using instrumental variables for party and ideology economic interests account for a substantial portion of the variance in all cases and models that also include other explanatory variables are highly accurate in estimating floor votes

the analytic valuation of american options no analytic solutions exists for the valuation of american options written on futures contracts and foreign currencies for which early exercise may be optimal this article formulates the american option valuation problem in economically and mathematically meaningful ways this enables us to derive valuation formulas for american options the properties associated with the optimal exercise boundary are examined and a numerical technique to implement the valuation formulas is presented article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

the epidemiology of corporate pac formation 1975 1984 abstract most work on corporate political action committees pacs accounts for their formation or activity level in terms of market concentration and collective action dilemmas subsidiary concerns include the effects of regulatory burden and the firm s internal organization however these cross sectional designs yield little insight into the dynamics of the process results of logit and event history analyses of panel data on 119 u s firms from 1975 1984 show that changes in corporate profitability pac formation by other firms in a firm s board of directors interlock network and the degree of managerial dominance of corporate governance also affect the likelihood that a firm will form a pac analyses also reveal important differences in pac formation dynamics across different types of firms particularly in their response to pac formation by linked firms

equilibrium pricing and portfolio composition in the presence of uncertain parameters abstract we analyze the effect of parameter uncertainty on equilibrium asset prices for the symmetric case when the amount of estimation risk is the same for all securities the existing literature argues that parameter uncertainty is largely irrelevant for equilibrium our results differ we find that symmetric estimation risk affects equilibrium values of relative asset prices expected returns market weights and betas

downside risk and stock returns in the g7 countries an empirical analysis of their long run and short run dynamics abstract any risk return tradeoff analysis in aggregate equity markets relies on appropriate measures of risk in most studies based on co variance relations consequently in integrated global markets country specific expected return is priced with a world price of covariance risk this study relates domestic excess stock returns to the world downside risk evidence shows that downside tail risk as a multiplier of volatility has long memory cointegration properties hence the underlying risk aversion behavior in an integrated market is associated with the conditional quantile ratio the correlation of stock returns and the cointegrating coefficient of downside risk our empirical results based on g7 countries indicate that investors are averse to downside risk which via cornish fisher expansions is related to higher moment risk and interpretable in a utility based decision framework

generalized disappointment aversion and asset prices we characterize generalized disappointment aversion gda risk preferences that can overweight lower tail outcomes relative to expected utility we show in an endowment economy that recursive utility with gda risk preferences generates effective risk aversion that is countercyclical this feature comes from endogenous variation in the probability of disappointment in the representative agent s intertemporal consumption saving problem that underlies the asset pricing model the variation in effective risk aversion produces a large equity premium and a risk free rate that is procyclical and has low volatility in an economy with a simple autoregressive endowment growth process the observed facts of aggregate risks and asset prices in the post war u s economy have led researchers to explore models of intertemporal preferences that generalize the well developed time additive expected utility specification used in the asset pricing economy of lucas 1978 in particular models that allow for countercyclical risk aversion have been shown to perform much better than the standard model see e g campbell and cochrane 1999 gordon and st amour 2000 and barberis huang and santos 2001 1 this leads us to explore the preference foundations that may produce this behavior endogenously our preference specification is a one parameter extension of the gul 1991 disappointment aversion utility function these new preferences

introduction to the special issue on behavioral economics and finance we are thrilled to introduce the special issue of management science titled behavioral economics and finance the theories underlying finance and economics have long relied on behavioral assumptions after all risk aversion is merely an observed behavior of individual behavior but it is now well accepted to assume that agents are risk averse surely other common and very human behaviors affect markets and management our goal with this special issue was to provide an outlet for research on these issues we believe that this special issue accomplishes that goal and makes for engaging reading the response to the special issue exceeded our expectation we received 292 submissions we are proud to say we were able to handle this workload with the same high quality review process and turnaround goals maintained by the editorial board at management science more than 90 of papers were reviewed within 90 days we could not have accomplished this goal without the support of many individuals kathleen luckey the tireless and remarkable managing editor of management science provided us with phenomenal support we are truly grateful for her willingness to go the extra mile in handling the large number of papers that we received around the submission deadline the special issue was the brainchild of gerard cachon the editor in chief of management science we are grateful for his visionary leadership of the journal and his willingness to devote scarce journal space and resources to this important topic finally we are indebted to the remarkable group of associate editors who gave of their time and expertise they were critical in ensuring high quality and prompt feedback to those who submitted papers we are amazed at the time and talent that many willingly and ably provide to the research enterprise in the end you have before you 29 papers that are separated into two issues the second issue will publish in february 2012 we have roughly split the papers into a behavioral economics issue and a behavioral finance issue though there is clearly much overlap between the two the papers include experimental theoretical and empirical papers with a common theme they all address questions that are answered with a deeper understanding of human behavior the papers deal with a wide range of behavioral factors that influence outcomes including cultural values social norms social networks attention familiarity and ambiguity aversion to name but a few taken together the papers reveal the promise that behavioral economics and finance hold and provide a strong signal of management science s commitment to the field in closing we thank all of the authors who submitted to the special issue the strong response to our call made the issue a success to those authors whose work appears in the issue thank you for all of your hard work in navigating the review process while being responsive to the deadlines of the special issue

a theory of disappointment aversion an axiomatic model of preferences over lotteries is developed it is shown that this model is consistent with the allais paradox includes expected utility theory as a special case and is only one parameter beta richer than the expected utility model allais paradox type behavior is identified with positive values of beta preferences with positive beta are said to be disappointment averse it is shown that risk aversion implies disappointment aversion and that the arrow pratt measures of risk aversion can be generalized in a straight forward manner to the current framework copyright 1991 by the econometric society

the reductionist gamble open economy politics in the global economy international political economy ipe should transition to third wave scholarship because open economy politics oep which dominates current american ipe scholarship can generate inaccurate knowledge oep can produce inaccurate knowledge because it studies domestic politics in isolation from international or macro processes this methodological reductionism is often inappropriate for the phenomena ipe studies because governments inhabit a complex social system as a result the political choices that oep strives to explain are typically a product of the interplay between domestic politics and macro processes when oep omits causally significant macro processes from empirical models the models yield biased inferences about the domestic political relationships under investigation although scholars tolerated such errors when the gains from oep were large these errors are less tolerable now that oep has matured consequently the field should transition toward research that is nonreductionist problem driven and pluralistic

irreversible investment and knightian uncertainty when firms make a decision about irreversible investment they may not have complete confidence about their perceived probability measure describing future uncertainty they may think other probability measures perturbed from the original one are also possible such uncertainty characterized by not a single probability measure but a set of probability measures is called knightian uncertainty the effect of knightian uncertainty on the value of irreversible investment opportunity is shown to be drastically different from that of traditional uncertainty in the form of risk specifically an increase in knightian uncertainty decreases the value of investment opportunity while an increase in risk increases it

risk preferences and the macroeconomic announcement premium this paper develops a revealed preference theory for the equity premium around macroeconomic announcements stock returns realized around pre scheduled macroeconomic announcements such as the employment report and the fomc statements account for 55 of the market equity premium we provide a characterization theorem for the set of intertemporal preferences that generates a nonnegative announcement premium our theory establishes that the announcement premium identifies a significant deviation from time separable expected utility and provides asset market based evidence for a large class of non expected utility models we also provide conditions under which asset prices may rise prior to some macroeconomic announcements and exhibit a pre announcement drift

risk ambiguity and the exercise of employee stock options abstract we investigate the importance of ambiguity or knightian uncertainty in executives stock option exercise decisions we develop an empirical estimate of ambiguity and include it in regression models alongside the traditional measure of risk equity volatility we show that each variable has a significant effect on the timing of option exercises with volatility causing executives to hold options longer to preserve option value and ambiguity increasing the tendency for executives to exercise early

use of the producer subsidy equivalent as a measure of support to agriculture in transition economies measurements of total support or assistance to agriculture using the producer subsidy equivalent pse have become a standard tool of policy analysts in the last decade from its initial use by josling at the food and agriculture organization fao josling fao the pse grew in popularity in parallel with the gatt uruguay round agricultural trade negotiations failure in previous gatt rounds to bring agriculture adequately within gatt rules and disciplines had been attributed in particular to difficulties in capturing the effects of the multiplicity of domestic measures and nontariff barriers to trade in agricultural products grogan pp 297 306 a common yardstick capturing the effects of all these policy measures was needed the organization for economic cooperation and development oecd developed the methodology and applied it progressively to all oecd countries and recently to economies in transition see oecd 1994 1995c and 1995d

what determines individual trade policy preferences abstract this article provides new evidence on the determinants of individual trade policy preferences using individual level survey data for the united states there are two main empirical results first we find that factor type dominates industry of employment in explaining support for trade barriers second we find that home ownership also matters for individuals trade policy preferences independent of factor type home ownership in counties with a manufacturing mix concentrated in comparative disadvantage industries is correlated with support for trade barriers this finding suggests that in addition to current factor incomes driving preferences as in standard trade models preferences also depend on asset values

the implications of first order risk aversion for asset market risk premiums abstract in an effort to explain simultaneously the excess return predictability observed in equity bond and foreign exchange markets we incorporate preferences exhibiting first order risk aversion into a general equilibrium two country monetary model when we calibrate the model to us and japanese data we find that first order risk aversion substantially increases excess return predictability however this increased predictability is insufficient to match the data we conclude that the observed patterns of excess return predictability are unlikely to be explained purely by time varying risk premiums generated by highly risk averse agents in a complete markets economy

integration of the sales force an empirical examination this article develops and tests a model of integration of a marketing function personal selling the model derived from transaction cost analysis as developed principally by williamson is formulated as a logistic function which is estimated with data from the electronic components industry as expected integration is associated with increasing levels of asset specificity difficulty of performance evaluation and the combination of these two factors contrary to the transaction cost model neither frequency of transactions nor interaction of specificity and environmental uncertainty is significantly related to integration the transaction cost model improves significantly upon the fit of a simple model relating integration to company size alone these results suggest that for studying transactions of this kind it is fruitful to view the firm as a governance structure

firms governments and wto adjudication japan s selection of wto disputes what explains the selection of cases for wto adjudication this article explores the business conditions under which industries lobby their home government to use the wto adjudication process and the political factors that influence government decisions it explains the industry pattern of selection for international trade disputes as a function of the velocity of the business environment while wto adjudication is seen as costly and slow a positive ruling brings broad benefits in terms of deterrence against future discrimination firms in static industries will invest in wto dispute settlement to achieve these benefits but firms in industries shaped by dynamic competition have high opportunity costs that make them less willing to pursue adjudication this argument accounts for why there are fewer wto cases about electronics industry issues than there are likely incidences of protectionist measures since japan is a leading exporter and provides a government report with unique data on potential wto disputes it was chosen to test the argument in greater depth interviews with japanese business officials and statistical analysis of an original data set provide support for the argument the authors conclude that the passive attitude toward wto adjudication by japan s largest export industry electronics and the sensitivity of japan s diplomatic relations with china have constrained the cases that japan files these findings suggest that the effectiveness of the wto for dispute settlement is conditional upon the time horizon of the industry and the political relations among members

non marketability and the value of employee stock options abstract we adapt the benninga et al 2005 framework to value employee stock options esos the model quantifies non diversification effects is computationally simple and provides an endogenous explanation of eso early exercise using a proprietary dataset of eso exercise events we measure the non marketability eso discount we find that the eso value on the grant date is approximately 45 of a similar plain vanilla black scholes value the model is aligned with empirical findings of esos gives an exercise boundary of esos and can serve as an approximation to the fair value estimation of share based employee and executive compensation using the model we give a numerical measure of non diversification in an imperfect market

first order risk aversion heterogeneity and asset market outcomes we examine a wide range of two date economies populated by heterogeneous agents with the most common forms of nonexpected utility preferences used in finance and macroeconomics we demonstrate that the risk premium and the risk free rate in these models are sensitive to ignoring heterogeneity this follows because of endogenous withdrawal by nonexpected utility agents from the market for the risky asset this finding is important precisely because these alternative preferences have frequently been proposed as possible resolutions to various asset pricing puzzles and they have all been examined exclusively in a representative agent framework the well documented shortcomings of asset pricing models based in part on the expected utility eu hypothesis has motivated a large and rapidly grow ing set of pricing models that incorporate nonexpected utility preferences the pricing implications of these models in the existing literature have been based exclusively on the assumption of a single representative agent ra who prices assets using the aggregate endowment as the consumption process while ag gregation is well understood in the standard eu setting see constantinides 1982 it can be more complicated when some or all agents do not have eu we provide a simple and intuitive examination of the asset pricing implications of heterogeneity for the most commonly used alternatives to eu our primary finding is that the risk premium and the risk free rate are sensitive to ignoring heterogeneity in all of the simple two date non eu models that we examine we compare the prices in a model with two agent types to the prices in a model with a single representative agent who has a wealth weighted average of the utility parameters in the two agent economy the economies are otherwise identical for example they have the same endowment process market structure etc it is common for the single agent model to overstate the equity premium often by as much as 100 or more of the value in the two agent model and to understate the level of the risk free rate often by as much as 20 of the value in the two agent model

factor intensities and factor substitution in general equilibrium abstract this article examines how factor intensity rankings between industries and the economy wide asymmetry in the degree of factor substitution combine to influence the manner in which changes in relative commodity prices affect the factoral distribution of income the reciprocal influence of factor endowment changes on the composition of outputs is also discussed the analysis is undertaken in a general three factor two commodity framework the minimal sized model that allows both influences to affect factor prices and admits of the possibility of complementarity between factors factors which are good substitutes find their returns behave somewhat similarly when commodity prices change while factors which are complements experience strongly asymmetrical fortunes a crucial role is played by a comparison of the share of the middle factor in each sector

inflation ambiguity and the term structure of u s government bonds abstract variations in trend inflation are the main driver for variations in the nominal yield curve according to empirical data investors observe a set of empirical models that could all have generated the time series for trend inflation this set has been large and volatile during the 1970s and early 1980s and small during the 1990s i show that log utility together with knightian uncertainty about trend inflation can explain the term premium in u s treasury bonds the equilibrium has two inflation premiums an inflation risk premium and a knightian inflation ambiguity premium

the economic and demographic status of female headed households in rural botswana analyzes the economic and demographic status of female headed households in botswana where insufficient economic opportunities force many men to live and work away from home the analysis is based on the rural income distribution survey conducted in 1974 75 by the central statistical office of botswana in which 957 households containing 6475 individuals were interviewed once a month for 23 months the relevant items surveyed were age and sex of household nembers amount and sources of income identity and value of assets use of time extent of education and sex of perceived head of household the analysis recognizes 4 types of households male head with male aged 20 64 present 452 male head with no male 20 64 present 77 female head with male aged 20 64 present 131 and female head with no male aged 20 64 present 277 the primary analysis consists of a comparison of the 1st and 4th of these groups categories 2 and 3 are intermediate positions and their characteristics are less clear cut the income distribution in rural botswana is more unequal than in many other developing countries with female headed households faring especialy poorly on a per adult equivalent basis the welfare attained by members of female headed households is nearly 25 lower than that attained in male headed households such is the case despite the fact that women in botswana have been shown to compare favorably with men in regard to education willingness to work agricultural know how and entrepreneurial ability reasons for womens lower economic status in this country are discussed and policy suggestions to overcome this discrepancy are made

the exercise and valuation of executive stock options abstract in theory hedging restrictions faced by managers make executive stock options more difficult to value than ordinary options because they imply that exercise policies of managers depend on their preferences and endowments using data on option exercises from 40 firms this paper shows that a simple extension of the ordinary american option model which introduces random exogenous exercise and forfeiture predicts actual exercise times and payoffs just as well as an elaborate utility maximizing model that explicitly accounts for the nontransferability of options the simpler model could therefore be more useful than the preference based model for valuing executive options in practice

producer subsidy equivalents and evaluation of support to russian agricultural producers since many of the conditions taken for granted in mature market economies cannot be assumed for transition economies such as russia the validity of producer subsidy equivalents pse measures is questionable the authors calculate pses for russia being careful in the selection of appropriate farm prices and reference prices and conduct a sensitivity analysis to indicate how the results could be influenced by changes in key assumptions they also provide appropriate interpretations of pse estimations for major agricultural commodities

search and knightian uncertainty suppose that uncertainty about labor market conditions has increased does this change induce an unemployed worker to search longer or shorter this paper shows that the answer is drastically different depending on whether an increase in uncertainty is an increase in risk or that in true uncertainty in the sense of frank knight we show in a general framework that while an increase in risk the mean preserving spread of the wage distribution that the worker thinks she faces increases the reservation wage an increase in knightian uncertainty a decrease in her confidence about the wage distribution reduces it

the economics of fraudulent accounting we argue that earnings management and fraudulent accounting have important economic consequences in a model where the costs of earnings management are endogenous we show that in equilibrium low productivity firms hire and invest too much in order to pool with high productivity firms this behavior distorts the allocation of economic resources in the economy we test the predictions of the model using firmlevel data we show that during periods of suspicious accounting firms hire and invest excessively while managers exercise options when the misreporting is detected firms shed labor and capital and productivity improves our firm level results hold both before and after the market crash of 2000 in the aggregate our model provides a novel explanation for periods of jobless and investment less growth

reverse bayesianism a choice based theory of growing awareness this article introduces a new approach to modeling the expanding universe of decision makers in the wake of growing awareness and invokes the axiomatic approach to model the evolution of decision makers beliefs as awareness grows the expanding universe is accompanied by extension of the set of acts the preference relations over which are linked by a new axiom invariant risk preferences asserting that the ranking of lotteries is independent of the set of acts under consideration the main results are representation theorems and rules for updating beliefs over expanding state spaces and events that have the flavor of reverse bayesianism jel d81 d83 according to the bayesian paradigm as new discoveries are made and new infor mation becomes available the universe shrinks with the arrival of new information events replace the prior universal state space to become the posterior state space or universe of discourse this process of destruction reflects the impossibility in the bayesian framework of expanding the state space and of updating the probabilities of null events coupled with the fact that conditioning on new information renders null events that a priori were nonnull yet experience and intuition alike contradict this view of the world becoming accustomed to possibilities that were once inconceivable is part of history and our own life experience there is a sense therefore in which our universe expands as we become aware of new opportunities in this paper we take a step toward modeling the process of growing awareness and expansion of the universe or state space in its wake 1 to model the evolution of beliefs in response to growing awareness we invoke the theory of choice under uncertainty borrowing its language and structure while modifying it to fit our pur pose in particular we allow for new consequences and feasible acts to be discovered and for new evidence to establish in the mind of decision makers new links between acts and consequences the interpretation of the updating is somewhat dif ferent for the discovery of new feasible acts and consequences on the one hand

household production in the philippines a non neoclassical approach the starting point of any economic analysis is a microeconomic theory of the decision making unit by providing a set of explicit assumptions regarding individual choices a microeconomic theory lays the necessary foundation for the explanation of economic behavior just as a theory of the firm underlies analyses of market production a theory of the family underlies analyses of household production explanations of long run trends such as fertility decline grow out of assumptions regarding the nature of household decision making developing what they term the economic approach to human behavior gary becker and other neoclassical economists forcefully argue that household behavior is motivated primarily by a collective concern for economic efficiency they assume that households seek to maximize exogenously given joint utility functions and they hypothesize that differences in household behavior represent efficient responses to differences in the prices and incomes which households face this approach provides the foundation for an explanation of fertility decline based on long run changes in relative prices associated with economic development simply stated the argument runs as follows as the rate of return to human capital rises and levels of education increase the cost of rearing children goes up as higher wages draw women out of the household into the labor force the opportunity cost of mothers time goes up further increasing the cost of children the demand for children decreases and fertility levels gradually adjust 2 the assumption that joint utility functions are exogenous constant over time and vary randomly if at all across households is crucial to this argument systematic differences in unobservable joint utility functions could seriously confound the interpretation of observed relationships between changes in household behavior and changes in rela

do jumps contribute to the dynamics of the equity premium abstract this paper investigates whether risks associated with time varying arrival of jumps and their effect on the dynamics of higher moments of returns are priced in the conditional mean of daily market excess returns we find that jumps and jump dynamics are significantly related to the market equity premium the results from our time series approach reinforce the importance of the skewness premium found in cross sectional studies using lower frequency data and offer a potential resolution to sometimes conflicting results on the intertemporal risk return relationship we use a general utility specification consistent with our pricing kernel to evaluate the relative value of alternative risk premium models in an out of sample portfolio performance application

booming sector and de industrialisation in a small open economy this paper presents a theoretical analysis of the dutch disease the phenomenon whereby a boom in one traded goods sector squeezes porfitability in other traded goods sectors both by directly bi

predation reputation and entry deterrence abstract economists often argue that predatory practices are irrational since there exist cheaper or more certain means to gain or maintain a monopoly our gametheoretic equilibrium analysis suggests that if a firm is threatened by several potential entrants then predation may be rational against early entrants even if it is costly when viewed in isolation because it yields a reputation which deters other entrants asymmetric information plays a crucial role in our analysis since it provides the rationale for entrants to base their expectations of the firm s future behavior on its past actions the analysis also suggests methods to treat general reputational phenomena

dynamic portfolio choice and asset pricing with narrow framing and probability weighting this paper shows that the framework proposed by barberis and huang 2009 to incorporate narrow framing and loss aversion into dynamic models of portfolio choice and asset pricing can be extended to also account for probability weighting and for a value function that is convex on losses and concave on gains we show that the addition of probability weighting and a convex concave value function reinforces previous applications of narrow framing and cumulative prospect theory to understanding the stock market non participation puzzle and the equity premium puzzle moreover we show that a convex concave value function generates new wealth effects that are consistent with empirical observations on stock market participation

policy uncertainty in hybrid regimes evidence from firm level surveys cross national surveys suggest that regulatory and policy uncertainty is an important constraint on investment in developing countries yet there has been little direct empirical investigation of the sources of this uncertainty this article presents evidence of an inverted u shaped relationship between firms perceptions of policy uncertainty and political regime type firms in hybrid regimes report higher levels of concern over policy uncertainty than those in either more authoritarian regimes or liberal established democracies the authors argue that the explanation lies with a combination of polarized political competition and limited access to credible information and test their theory using survey data of around 10 000 firms from the world bank european bank for reconstruction and development s business environment and enterprise performance survey from 27 postcommunist countries and five organisation for economic co operation and development countries methodologically the authors propose a means

employee stock option exercises an empirical analysis this paper describes the exercise behavior of over 50 000 employees who hold longterm options on employer stock at eight corporations employees typically exercise options years before expiration commonly sacrificing half of the black scholes value exercise is strongly associated with recent stock price movements the market to strike ratio proximity to vesting dates time to maturity volatility and the employee s level within the company these findings have implications for compensation planners the fasb as it develops a new accounting standard for options and financial statement users and preparers who apply and interpret the new fasb standard

modes of foreign entry a transaction cost analysis and propositions a frontier issue in international marketing is the appropriate choice of entry mode in foreign markets the objective of this paper is to offer a transaction cost framework for investigating the entry mode decision this framework provides 1 a theoretical basis for systematically interrelating the literature into propositions 2 propositions about interactions which resolve the apparently contradictory arguments advanced to date specifically the paper illustrates the feasibility of clustering 17 entry modes into the degree of control the mode provides the entrant proposes that the most appropriate i e most efficient entry mode is a function of the tradeoff between control and the cost of resource commitment advances testable propositions delimiting the circumstances under which each mode maximizes long term efficiency

institutional assets and adaptability nato after the cold war the puzzle of nato s persistence is best addressed as part of a larger inquiry into institutional change institutions persist because they are costly to create and less costly to maintain but this institutionalist argument is incomplete whether institutions adapt to change depends on whether their norms rules and procedures are specific or general assets and on whether the asset mix matches the kinds of security problems faced by their members assets specific to coping with external threats will not be useful for coping with problems of instability and mistrust so alliances with only the former will disappear when threats disappear alliances that have specific institutional assets for dealing with instability and mistrust and general institutional assets will be adaptable to environments that lack threats i assess these hypotheses in a test case of nato s institutional assets during and after the cold war

the antecedents and performance implications of cooperative exchange norms our study investigates the antecedents and performance implications of cooperative exchange norms we argue that in early relationships the level of expected cooperative norms in an exchange is the result of a calculative process facilitated by transaction attributes joint transaction specific investments and observability the greater the level of these two exchange attributes the greater the level of cooperative exchange norms all else being equal we further argue that the realized level of cooperative exchange norms can deviate from the expected level because the development of such norms is the result of social processes that management cannot directly and fully control this gap between realized and expected norms affects exchange performance performance suffers when the realized level of cooperative exchange norms falls below the expected level but overshooting expectations lays a critical groundwork for repeat transactions the analysis of a survey of 182 collaborative r d alliances provides initial support for our theory

capital mobility and the origins of stock markets i illustrate the accepted though hardly researched idea that political institutions play a role in locking in factor specificity across sectors space and borders i use the emergence of modern capital markets in the nineteenth century a process that threatened to redeploy financial resources away from land and traditional sectors to heavy industry as a test case to ascertain the degree of domestic financial capital mobility in nine advanced industrialized countries the main finding is that cross national variations in financial capital mobility holding constant the level of economic development reflect the degree of state centralization

choice under uncertainty problems solved and unsolved ffifteen years ago the theory of choice under uncertainty could be considered one of the success stories of economic analysis it rested on solid axiomatic foundations it had seen important breakthroughs in the analytics of risk risk aversion and their applications to economic issues and it stood ready to provide the theoretical underpinnings for the newly emerging information revolution in economics 1 today choice under uncertainty is a field in flux the standard theory is being challenged on several grounds from both within and outside economics the nature of these challenges and of our profession s responses to them is the topic of this paper

ambiguity aversion and household portfolio choice puzzles empirical evidence we test the relation between ambiguity aversion and five household portfolio choice puzzles nonparticipation in equities low allocations to equity home bias own company stock ownership and portfolio under diversification in a representative us household survey we measure ambiguity preferences using custom designed questions based on ellsberg urns as theory predicts ambiguity aversion is negatively associated with stock market participation the fraction of financial assets in stocks and foreign stock ownership but it is positively related to own company stock ownership conditional on stock ownership ambiguity aversion is related to portfolio under diversification and during the financial crisis ambiguity averse respondents were more likely to sell stocks

the political economy of international trade enduring puzzles and an agenda for inquiry a similar set of concepts has been central to the literatures on the formation of trade policy coalitions and the new economics of institutions the political and economic consequences of the degree to which assets are specific to a particular economic activity in this survey the authors take the necessary first step of summarizing the main findings of these two literatures and then suggest ways in which the issue might be joined in addition to providing a more coherent understanding of the findings of these two literatures and some new directions for them the authors show that many puzzles remain in the field of trade politics puzzles for which there are no appealing answers or where there are answers no strong evidence in support of them this essay then in addition to being a theoretical review of the literature puts forward an agenda for future study of international trade politics

probability weighting and employee stock options this paper documents that riskier firms with higher idiosyncratic volatility grant more stock options to nonexecutive employees standard models in the literature cannot easily explain this pattern a model in which a risk neutral firm and an employee with prospect theory preferences bargain over the employee s pay package can the key feature which makes stock options attractive is probability weighting the model fits the data on option grants well when calibrated using standard parameters from the experimental literature the results are the first evidence that risky firms can profitably use stock options to cater to an employee demand for long shot bets

the mobilization of women s labor for cash crop production a game theoretic approach in the last decade or so economists have modeled phenomena such as household labor supply fertility behavior and child survival rates using the household as the unit of analysis this paper presents data that call into question the assumption that the household is a joint decision making unit which maximizes a neoclassical household utility function the data come from a study of the mobilization of women s labor by their husbands for irrigated rice production in north cameroon the first section of this paper describes briefly the massa rice and sorghum farming system and then considers the relationship between the amount of compensation women receive from their husbands for their labor on rice production and the amount of labor they allocate to rice production the findings suggest that a bargaining model may describe the intrahousehold relations of production and distribution better than the neoclassical model the second section specifies a nash bargaining model and contrasts it with the neoclassical model of the household using the bargaining framework the third section explores in more detail possible explanations of the allocative inefficiency which seems to characterize many of the rice cultivating households

how much would you pay to resolve long run risk abstract though risk aversion and the elasticity of intertemporal substitution have been the subjects of careful scrutiny the long run risks literature as well as the broader literature using recursive utility to address asset pricing puzzles has ignored the full implications of their parameter specifications recursive utility implies that the temporal resolution of risk matters and a quantitative assessment thereof should be part of the calibration process this paper gives a sense of the magnitudes of implied timing premia its objective is to inject temporal resolution of risk into the discussion of the quantitative properties of long run risks and related models jel d81 g11 g12

the power of the buckley and casson thesis the ability to manage institutional idiosyncrasies recent patterns of rapid internationalization in sectors characterized by strong public interest and both government and domestic capital constraints seem at first inconsistent with the drivers of internationalization identified by buckley and casson 1976 for manufacturing industries in the postwar era a more microanalytic perspective however identifies the ability to manage institutional idiosyncrasies as a firm level capability akin to research or advertising that can drive internalization across national borders and thereby internationalization these arguments are examined using evidence from the independent power production sector

disappointment aversion term structure and predictability puzzles in bond markets we solve a dynamic equilibrium model with generalized disappointment aversion preferences and continuous state endowment dynamics we apply the framework to the term structure of interest rates and

asset specificity and the political behavior of firms lobbying for subsidies in norway previous research into endogenous trade policy has described extensively the political incentives of firms with specific assets but no studies have shown directly that firms behave as predicted we adopt insights from transaction costs economics to develop measures of asset specificity and to investigate how variation in these measures affects the political behavior of firms in particular we examine the lobbying choices of norwegian firms in the 1980s given available subsidy funds from norway s oil boom and some government decisions in the 1970s firms with more specific assets faced potentially greater losses from adjusting to new activities in the face of competitive pressures and thus had greater incentives to lobby for subsidies to protect themselves joint contacting of parliament and government on behalf of firm interests by representatives of both management and labor should be particularly likely where firms had specific assets data analysis shows that asset specificity as indicated by r d intensity and job immobility predicts joint contacting independently of plausible alternative explanatory variables like firm size and export orientation

on equilibrium pricing under parameter uncertainty prior theoretical work on estimation risk generally has been restricted to single period returns based models in which the investor must estimate the vector of expected returns but the covariance matrix is known this paper extends the literature on parameter uncertainty in several ways first we analyze asymmetric parameter uncertainty in a model based on payoffs second we explore the effects of both symmetric and asymmetric estimation risk on equilibrium asset prices when the covariance matrix for payoffs must also be estimated finally we investigate the effects on equilibrium of asymmetric parameter uncertainty in a simple multiperiod model

the determinants of industry political activity 1978 1986 c ampaign contributions made by corporate political action committees pacs are increasingly important and controversial in u s elections influence purchasing is often alleged by pundits and campaign finance reform is continually debated in congress in the academy social scientists have analyzed the allocation of interest group monies and have looked for possible impacts on legislation few however have tried to explain the total contributions of economic interest groups we shall analyze variations in contributions across industries and over time with an empirical model based on organizationally constrained profit maximizing behavior we assume that corporate pac contributions in an industry are raised to enhance industry profits subject to the constraints of organization costs and freeriding incentives our empirical work covers 124 industries over five election cycles from 1978 through 1986 both the costs and benefits of political activity vary across industries we argue that the benefits of political action are determined by direct contact with the government as a regulator or purchaser of industry output by government s ability to ameliorate adverse market conditions and by the industry s ability to solve collective action problems without government assistance the costs of industry political action arise mainly from collective action problems because effective political activity often requires concerted action by the constituent firms in each industry we also make a methodological contribution previous studies use statistical techniques that suffer from sample selectivity bias or else force the probability of acting politically to be explained by the same set of coefficients as is the amount of action taken we explain and employ a technique that accounts for both problems the results are consistent with the theses that industries follow investment oriented goals in deciding the amount of political action to undertake and that collective action problems are important constraints on industry political activity we can explain between 60 and 80 of the variation in contributions in our sample first we review existing work on corporate political activity particularly papers examining patterns of aggregate pac spending by industry then we present an organization cost constrained industryprofit maximizing model based on a comparison between an idealized zero organization cost industry and the more realistic case where organizing collective action is difficult the independent variables used in the analysis are also discussed and defined next we discuss the dependent variable and total industry contributions and explain our statistical method then the results are presented followed by a discussion of industry structure and political activity to make clear how our results can explain different contribution patterns we give examples using five actual industries

robust permanent income and pricing i suppose there exists an extremely powerful and if i may so speak malignant being whose whole endeavours are directed toward deceiving me rene descartes meditations ii 1

market opportunities genetic endowments and intrafamily resource distribution child survival in rural india the authors examine how intrafamily resource allocations respond to changes in economic conditions and to genetic differences in children by estimating the determinants of variations in the sex specific survival differentials of rural indian children based on standard census and household survey data they explore in particular the hypothesis that such differences are related to the relative returns to survival with households selectively allocating resources to children in response to variation in sex differences in their expected earnings opportunities as adults data are from the 1961 census and a 1971 household survey excerpt

three variants on the allais example three variants on the famous allais example were administered to student subjects two variants involved small changes in the example yet greatly diminished the qualitative behavior known as the allais paradox the third variant is almost a direct test of daniel kahneman and amos tversky s certainty effect against mark machina s fanning out hypothesis the results favor the certainty effect over the fanning out hypothesis for at least the case of straight line indifference curves copyright 1989 by american economic association

why hang on to losers divestitures and takeovers we study the divestiture decisions of managers who care about their reputations managers divestiture and investment decisions are publicly observable but managers privately observe signals with respect to the future payoff distribution of investments they have initiated we establish that in equilibrium there is too little divestiture these inefficiencies create the opportunity for wealth enhancing divestiture motivated takeovers a key result is that only managers of targets with middle of the road asset specificity should consider the takeover threat credible these findings suggest that uniqueness of assets is an important determinant of both agency costs and takeover activity our analysis leads to several empirical predictions overwhelming empirical evidence has documented large gains in shareholder wealth that arise from takeovers jarrell brickley and netter 1988 and jensen and ruback 1983 the source of these gains has remained elusive however although takeovers are followed by some infusion of new managerial talent we have not witnessed the kind of profound post takeover restructuring of the productive activities of target firms that would readily justify the documented wealth gains a commonly observed post takeover initiative is divestiture of some of the target s lines of business bhide 1989 and bhagat shleifer and vishny 1990 what is puzzling is that if the gains from takeovers stem from the anticipation of such divestitures then why were these divestitures not undertaken by the target firm s management in the first place the purpose of this paper is to provide a possible answer to this question our focus is on the divergence in incentives between managers and shareholders with respect to divestitures of ongoing projects we show that managers might rationally decide to hang on to projects that should be divested in

class versus industry cleavages inter industry factor mobility and the politics of trade domestic political conflict has been a constant companion to international trade but the nature of that conflict has varied greatly in western democracies over the last two centuries political battles over trade policy appear to have sometimes divided societies along broad class lines and at other times split them into narrow industry based coalitions i argue that this diversity stems from historical and cross national variation in inter industry factor mobility class coalitions are more likely where factor mobility is high whereas narrow industry based coalitions are more likely where mobility is low evidence from six western economies for the last two centuries indicates that levels of factor mobility have varied historically and cross nationally in accord with industrialization and regulation this variation corresponds broadly with observable differences in the formation of trade policy coalitions

who lobbies whom special interest politics under alternative electoral systems why do some interest groups lobby politicians and others lobby bureaucrats we theorize lobbying venue choices and intensityasafunctionofcontractenforceabilitywithpolicymakers politicians orbureaucrats wearguethatorganizational structures of interest groups in particular whether they are centralized or decentralized substantially affect their lobbying strategies because they are associated with different ability to monitor and enforce contracts with policy makers and punish them when they fail we further demonstrate that the effect of centralized versus decentralized structure on venue choices is conditional on the types of electoral system majoritarian semiproportional single nontransferable vote sntv or proportional representation systems we test this argument using longitudinal survey data on lobbying which span two decades and cover around 250 interest groups in various sectors and issue areas in japan the results lend strong support to our argument about contract enforceability under alternative electoral systems

an investigation into the power of insiders in wage determination abstract this paper is concerned with the role of insider forces in wage determination various union and non union models of wage behaviour are considered and they imply that wages are a convex combination of internal and external factors certain union models also imply a degree of hysteresis data on fourteen british production industries reveal that i insider forces are important ii their importance is directly related to both union power and the degree of monopoly in the product market iii the state of the aggregate labour market is also important and iv hysteresis effects arising from insider power are only significant in a small minority of sectors

cleaning house new perspectives on households and economic development abstract this paper provides a critical review of the recent literature on households and economic development three related points are developed 1 household activities can be analyzed in economic terms particularly if these terms are broadly defined to encompass such factors as risk and uncertainty 2 significant differences between the economic position of men women and children within the patriarchal household mean that it cannot be treated as an undifferentiated unit of analysis 3 microeconomic analysis of the household must be situated within a larger structural analysis of gender and age based inequalities and their interaction with class structure and national position within the world capitalist system

invested interests the politics of national economic policies in a world of global finance capital moves more rapidly across national borders now than it has in at least fifty years and perhaps in history this article examines the effects of capital mobility on different groups in national societies and on the politics of economic policymaking it begins by emphasizing that while financial markets are highly integrated within the developed world many investments are still quite specific with respect to firm sector or location it then argues that contemporary levels of international capital mobility have a differential impact on socioeconomic groups over the long run increased capital mobility tends to favor owners of capital over other groups in the shorter run owners and workers in specific sectors in capital exporting countries bear much of the burden of adjusting to increased capital mobility these patterns can be expected to lead to political divisions about whether or not to encourage or increase international capital market integration the article then demonstrates that capital mobility also affects the politics of other economic policies most centrally it shifts debate toward the exchange rate as an intermediate or ultimate policy instrument in this context it tends to pit groups that favor exchange rate stability against groups that are more concerned about national monetary policy autonomy and therefore less concerned about exchange rate stability similarly it tends to drive a wedge between groups that favor an appreciated exchange rate and groups that favor a depreciated one these divisions have important implications for such economic policies as european monetary and currency union the dollar yen exchange rate and international macroeconomic policy coordination

the relationship between firm mobility and tax level empirical evidence of fiscal competition between local governments the mobility of the tax base may influence fiscal outcomes the many theoretical contributions about the role of mobility are not matched by empirical evidence existing studies address strategic interaction between governments but have little to say about mobility we introduce a new measure of mobility conditions based on the geographic profit variability of industrial sectors the econometric analysis shows a systematic negative relationship between mobility conditions and tax level among municipalities in norway the analysis takes into account neighborhood effects in a spatial model and the endogeneity of mobility conditions is handled with instrumental variables