coalitional game theory approach to modeling suppliers collaboration in supply networks abstract suppliers collaboration is a new paradigm to improve the utilization of collective intelligence in supply networks although existing literature advocates the notion of cooperation in supply networks there is a dearth of studies quantitatively analyzing cost and benefit of cooperation in this study we first develop a model for suppliers dynamic coalition formation using coalitional game theory the proposed cost structure influences the utility of each possible coalition and restricts the coalition size and search space for finding possible coalitions to distribute the profit earned by cooperation in a fair manner a criterion named shared capacity index is developed according to suppliers capacity share in the corresponding coalition a suppliers cooperation algorithm is then proposed to resolve possible conflicts among network members whereby each supplier is able to explore coalitional structures autonomously the efficiency of the proposed approach is evaluated through simulation studies and compared to other solution methods including shapley value and proportional fairness results demonstrate that long term cooperation among suppliers leads to enhanced average individual profit in the network

dynamic coalition formation and the core this paper presents a dynamic model of endogenous coalition formation in cooperative games with transferable utility tu the players are boundedly rational at each time step a player decides which of the existing coalitions to join and demands a payoff these decisions are determined by a best reply rule given the coalition structure and allocation in the previous period further the players experiment with myopically suboptimal strategies whenever there are potential gains from trade we establish an isomorphism between the set of absorbing states of the process and the set of core allocations and show that the process converges to one of these states with probability one whenever the core is non empty these results do not require superadditivity of the characteristic function and they carry over to the case of coalitional values depending on the coalition structure and to non transferable utility ntu games

longitudinal studies of human growth and health a review of recent historical research longitudinal studies of health this paper reviews recent literature using stature and weight as measures of human welfare with a particular interest in cliometric or historical research we begin with an overview of anthropometric evidence of living standards and the new but fast growing field of anthropometric history this literature is always implicitly and often explicitly longitudinal in nature we then discuss i systematic empirical research into the relationship between conditions in early life and later life health and mortality and ii historical evidence on the relationship between body mass morbidity and mortality we conclude with a discussion of the importance of historical sources and understandings to health economics and population health

the great moderation and the relationship between output growth and its volatility this study examines the effect of the great moderation on the relationship between u s output growth and its volatility over the period 1947 to 2006 first we consider the possible effects of structural change in the volatility process in so doing we employ garch m and arch m specifications of the process describing output growth rate and its volatility with and without a one time structural break in volatility second our data analyses and empirical results suggest no significant relationship between the output growth rate and its volatility favoring the traditional wisdom of dichotomy in macroeconomics moreover the evidence shows that the time varying variance falls sharply or even disappears once we incorporate a one time structural break in the unconditional variance of output starting 1982 or 1984 that is the integrated garch effect proves spurious finally a joint test of a trend change and a one time shift in the volatility process finds that the one time shift dominates

improving human development a long run view abstract the pessimistic flavour of the human development reports appears to be in contradiction with their own numbers as developing countries fare comparatively better in human development than in per capita gdp terms this paper attempts to bridge this gap by providing a new improved human development index ihdi informed by welfare economics the ihdi is presented here alongside the united nations development programme s undp hdi for the world and its main regions since the late 19th century social dimensions in the ihdi are derived following kakwani journal of development economics 41 1993 pp 307 336 with a convex achievement function whereas a geometric average is employed to combine its dimensions longevity knowledge and income thus the ihdi does not conceal the gap between rich and poor countries and casts a much less optimistic view than the conventional undp index while it fits with the undp concern for international differences the paper s findings highlight main weaknesses in human development dimensions of present day developing countries

the review of the achieved degree of sustainable development in south eastern europe the use of linear regression method the need for preservation and adequate management of the quality of environment requires the development of new methods and techniques by which the achieved degree of sustainable development can be defined as well as the laws regarding the relationship among its subsystems main objective of research is to point to a strong contradiction between the development of ecological and economic subsystems in order to improve previous research this study suggests the use of linear evaluation by which it is possible to determine the exact degree of contradiction between these two subsystems and to define the regularities as well as the deviations authors present the essential steps that were used conducted by the method of linear regression this research shows a significant negative correlation between ecological and economic subsystem indicators whereas its value r2 0 58 proves the expected contradiction that exists between the two previously mentioned subsystems by observing the sustainable development as a two dimensional system that includes ecological and economic indicators the authors suggest the methodology to modelling the relationship between economic and ecological development as an orthogonal distance between the degree of the current state measured by the relation between economic and ecological indicators of sustainable development and the degree which was obtained in a traditional way the method used in this research proved to be extremely suitable for modelling the relationship between ecological and economic subsystems of sustainable development this research was conducted on a repeated sample of countries of south east europe by including the data for france and germany being two countries on the highest level of development in the european union

survey of social and economic growth in se europe a new conceptual frame for sustainability metrics the practice so far has indicated that there is a sensitive relationship that exists between social and economic subsystem of sustainable development therefore this research suggests comparison of the states of these two subsystems as a new conceptual frame which is essential for strategic conceptualization of development the research pointed out a rather visible collision between the achieved degree of economic and social development in the countries of south eastern europe in respect to germany and france which were taken into consideration as two of the most developed countries in the european union and in the entire world the indicators which are given in this research point to the necessity of further scientific and practical consideration of strategic conceptualization of relationship between economics and society

ten things we should know about time series abstract time series data affect many aspects of our lives this paper highlights 10 things we should all know about time series namely a good working knowledge of econometrics and statistics an awareness of measurement errors testing for zero frequency seasonal and periodic unit roots analysing fractionally integrated and long memory processes estimating varfima models using and interpreting cointegrating models carefully choosing sensibly among univariate conditional stochastic and realized volatility models not confusing thresholds asymmetry and leverage not underestimating the complexity of multivariate volatility models and thinking carefully about forecasting models and expertise

modelling uncertainty a recursive var bootstrapping approach abstract this paper develops a recursive var bootstrapping approach to produce time series measures of nominal and real uncertainty the method is applied to us data and results compared to measures based on the survey of professional forecasters

perturbed adaptive dynamics in coalition form games abstract players adaptively learn how to bargain a characteristic function describes the available surplus the underlying bargaining game extends the nash demand game by allowing subcoalitions to reach an agreement players demands must be multiples of a money unit we show that stochastically stable allocations ssa i e allocations that are most stable to unlikely errors are a subset of the core uniqueness does not obtain even when the money unit becomes arbitrarily small nonetheless every ssa is related to the allocation that maximizes the product of players utilities over the core i e constrained egalitarian solution for tu games journal of economic literature classification numbers c71 c72 c78

adaptive play in multiplayer bargaining situations we study the dual issues of allocation and coalition formation in a model of social learning for a class of economies which can be expressed in terms of a real valued characteristic function we first show that all self perpetuating allocations realized from a simple bargaining game must be core allocations although players make simultaneous demands for surplus and only on their own behalf following this we provide a sufficient condition under which the society eventually learns to divide the surplus according to some core allocation regardless of the initial history

coalition formation as a dynamic process abstract we study coalition formation as an ongoing dynamic process with payoffs generated as coalitions form disintegrate or regroup a process of coalition formation pcf is an equilibrium if a coalitional move to some other state can be justified by the expectation of higher future value compared to inaction this future value in turn is endogenous it depends on coalitional movements at each node we study existence of equilibrium pcfs we connect deterministic equilibrium pcfs with unique absorbing state to the core and equilibrium pcfs with multiple absorbing states to the largest consistent set in addition we study cyclical as well as stochastic equilibrium pcfs

discovering the link between inflation rates and inflation uncertainty a new time series model is used to reassess the strength of the link between inflation uncertainty and the level of inflation in the united states the model provides several statistical measures that can be used to examine different aspects of uncertainty the main finding is that uncertainty about the long rather than short term prospects for inflation moved strongly with the rate of inflation since the early 1970s copyright 1991 by ohio state university press

are empirical measures of macroeconomic uncertainty alike there is a plethora of time series measures of uncertainty for inflation and real output growth in empirical studies but little is known whether they are comparable to the uncertainty measure reported by individual forecasters in the survey of professional forecasters are these two measures of uncertainty inherently distinct this paper shows that compared with many uncertainty proxies produced by time series models the use of real time data with fixed sample recursive estimation of an asymmetric bivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model yields inflation uncertainty estimates which resemble the survey measure there is however overwhelming evidence that many of the time series measures of growth uncertainty exceed the level of uncertainty obtained from survey measure our results highlight the relative merits of using different methods in modelling macroeconomic uncertainty which are useful for empirical researchers

dynamic coalition reformation for adaptive demand and capacity sharing abstract to deal with volatile product demand and rapidly changing manufacturing technologies for sustainable returns selective collaboration among companies in supply networks sns is required recently demand and capacity sharing among independent and non competitive manufacturers at the same horizontal layer in sns has been studied through an appropriate coalition for collaborative demand and capacity sharing manufacturers can minimize their lost sales as well as maximize production capacity utilization against lumpy real demand in a previous study we have developed the collaborative demand and capacity sharing cdcs protocol which addresses a long term profitable and well balanced collaboration for each manufacturer through distributed decision making however the uncertainty of circumstances calls for an effective and timely reformation of coalitions in reality there is a trade off between frequent accommodation to changeable environments and high additional costs incurred by reformation hence in this paper we design the adaptive cdcs protocol based on dynamic contract mechanism in each period our protocol suggests whether to reform existing coalitions or not based on theoretical analyses of long term expected net profit to evaluate its performance a numerical experiment is conducted by comparing three models no collaboration static collaboration and dynamic collaboration by adaptive cdcs protocol dynamic collaboration results in more profits and its balanced redistribution by accommodating with changeable conditions

longitudinal studies of human growth and health a review of recent historical research this paper reviews recent literature using stature and weight as measures of human welfare with a particular interest in cliometric or historical research we begin with an overview of anthropometric evidence of living standards and the new but fast growing field of anthropometric history this literature is always implicitly and often explicitly longitudinal in nature we then discuss i systematic empirical research into the relationship between conditions in early life and later life health and mortality and ii historical evidence on the relationship between body mass morbidity and mortality we conclude with a discussion of the importance of historical sources and understandings to health economics and population health

market rivalry and learning by doing abstract the failure to link learning by doing to its market effects and the complementary failure to consider market models in which competition extends to the search for cost efficiency can have unfortunate implications for economic policy this paper considers how the firm s equilibrium investment in learning arises in a two period oligopoly implications of these results for the manufacture of high technology products particularly by japanese semiconductor firms are developed

a market power based model of business groups we propose an model of vertically and horizontally integrated business groups that allows the number and size of each group to be determined endogenously we find that more than one configuration of groups can arise in equilibrium several different types of business groups can occur each of which are consistent with profit maximization and are stable we suggest that the strongly integrated groups arising in the model characterize the chaebol found in south korea whereas the less integrated groups describe those found in taiwan

comment managing channel profits comment in a recent paper in this journal jeuland and shugan jeuland a s shugan 1983 managing channel profits marketing sci 2 summer 239 272 proposed a quantity discount schedule as a way of coordinating a channel as they put it on p 253 of their paper a quantity discount schedule which would fix the retailer s and hence the manufacturer s profits to some fixed linear function of total channel profits would lead the channel to maximize profits the purpose of this note is to show that a quantity discount schedule is not necessary for channel coordination

japanese microelectronics creating competitive advantage by vertical interaction abstract japanese microelectronic firms have managed their integrated businesses strategically in the sense that some activities in the vertical chain are undertaken principally as drivers for other activities at first glance the sizeable discounts in factor prices relative to market prices that routinely occur when these firms use internal sources of factor supply would seem only to lead to accounting transfers of profits with misallocation effects however it is shown that there are rather modest conditions under which market share and corporate profits are increased by such discounts unfortunately a prisoner s dilemma develops when all japanese firms act in this strategic way but each nonetheless is at an advantage relative to those foreign firms which do not

strategic commitment with r d the case of bertrand competition abstract when there is multiplicatively separable demand and firms compete in the price dimension there is no room for strategic use of r d by firms under a different demand situation strategic use of r d by firms competing in the price dimension reduces r d spending reduces output increases price and increases profits of each firm

capital controls and international capital market segmentation the evidence from the japanese and american stock markets the paper focuses on two countries japan and the u s to test the integration of capital markets in japan the enactment of the foreign exchange and foreign trade control law in december of 1980 amounted to a true regime switch that virtually eliminated capital controls using multifactor asset pricing models we show that the price of risk in the u s and japanese stock markets was different before but not after the liberalization this evidence supports the view that governments are the source of international capital market segmentation the notion that world capital markets are perfectly integrated is central to most theoretical developments in both international finance and macroeconomics indeed it also lies behind much of the recent international policy discussion capital markets are integrated if assets with perfectly correlated rates of return have the same price regardless of the location in which they are traded 1 segmentation may arise either because of government impediments to capital movements or because of individuals attitudes or irrationality if the hypothesis that the international capital markets are integrated is rejected there is still an important empirical question left unanswered which is related to the source of segmentation while there is a rich body of theoretical research on international market integration only a few studies have tried to investigate this important question empirically a first group of empirical studies on market integration has generally adopted

the effects of real and nominal uncertainty on inflation and output growth some garch m evidence in this paper we use garch m methods to test four hypotheses about the effects of real and nominal uncertainty on average inflation and output growth in the united states from 1948 to 1996 we find no evidence that higher inflation uncertainty or higher output growth uncertainty raises the average inflation rate we also find no support for the idea that more risky output growth is associated with a higher average real growth rate our key result is that in a variety of models and sample periods inflation uncertainty significantly lowers real output growth copyright 2000 john wiley sons ltd

kyoto protocol implementation in serbia as precognition of sustainable energetic and economic development the paper gives reasons for low energy efficiency typical of the serbian economy which is based on outdated and dirty technologies the comparison of selected economic indicators and indicators of energy efficiency in both serbia and the european union points out the benefits of the kyoto protocol implementation due to the growth of competitiveness in the global market serbia has no obligation to reduce ghg emissions the authors point to the proposals whose implementation along with the mechanisms of the protocol can enable serbia the access to markets that trade ghg emissions and the access to dedicated funds self financing or attracting foreign investments to raise energy efficiency which will be accompanied by adequate economic benefits a similar principle can be applied in all countries that are not obliged to reduce ghg emissions the application of different mechanisms aiming to increase energy efficiency in serbia could contribute to the increase of gdp annual growth rate from 5 to 7 which cannot be achieved by any other economic instrument energy efficiency which is actually a question of competitiveness of each economy can finance itself through the mechanisms of the kyoto protocol by selling excess emissions resulting from improved energy efficiency

energy security measurement a sustainable approach abstract the main objective of this paper is to define new energy security indicator with the long term sustainability and to test it in a sample of 28 european union countries for the period 1990 2012 as well as to determine the level of impact of six different indicators on energy security the previous methodologies for measuring of energy security have been mainly focused on security of supply while not taking into account environmental indicators and the social component the newly proposed indicator energy security index differs from the existing measuring methods precisely in a way that it includes environmental and social aspects energy security index recorded a decline in values in most countries in the period 1990 2000 in the period 2000 2008 the values became positive and after 2008 some countries reported again gradual deterioration the index value varies by year and the biggest positive changes were recorded in the case of the netherlands slovenia and spain the four economically strongest eu countries the united kingdom france germany and italy recorded significantly less fluctuations in energy security over 23 years compared to other countries the data for france and denmark show that an increased share of energy from nuclear and renewable sources can compensate even increased energy import dependence the assessment of impact of individual indicators on energy security index was conducted by using principal component analysis and showed that energy intensity gdp per capita and carbon intensity have the greatest impact the countries of the former eastern bloc are facing particular challenges of energy security which is primarily related to the rapid economic growth and at the same time a high degree of dependence on import of energy generating products in terms of energy security the most stable transition was reported in hungary and poland