booms busts and babies health we study the relationship between the unemployment rate at the time of a baby s conception and parental characteristics parental behaviors and babies health babies conceived in times of high unemployment have a reduced incidence of low and very low birth weight fewer congenital malformations and lower post neonatal mortality these health improvements are attributable both to selection changes in the type of mothers that conceive during recessions and to improvements in health behavior during recessions black mothers tend to be higher socio economic status as measured by education and marital status in times of high unemployment whereas white mothers are less educated

testing the direct substitutability hypotheses of saving this paper contains some tests for the direct substitutability hypotheses of household saving with respect to corporate and or government savng by using an international data set from 12 oecd countries on the whole findings suggest that the hypothesis according to which households pierce party through the corporate veil cannot be rejected while the hypothesis that households subsume government behaviour under their own behaviour does not get clear support

temporary income taxes and consumer spending both economic theory and casual empirical observation of the u s economy suggest that spending propensities from temporary tax changes are smaller than those from permanent ones but neither provides much guidance about the magnitude of this difference this paper offers new empirical estimates of this difference and finds it to be quite substantial the analysis is based on an amendment of the standard distributed lag version of the permanent income hypothesis that distinguishes temporary taxes from other income on the grounds that the former are more transitory this amendment which is broadly consistent with rational expectations leads to a nonlinear consumption function though the standard error is unavoidably large the point estimate suggests that a temporary tax change is treated as a 50 50 blend of a normal income tax change and a pure windfall over a 1 year planning horizon a temporary tax change is estimated to have only a little more than half the impact of a permanent tax change of equ

interdependency of personal savings and labour force participation of the elderly and social security wealth a time series analysis using japanese annual time series data covering the period 1950 1982 our study shows that social security wealth during this period depressed personal savings as a result there was a reduction of approximately 79000 yen of wealth per capitain real terms from 1960 to 1980 however the declining labour force participation of elderly males brought about for example by earlier retirement stimulated personal savings by an estimated 13000 yen over the same period the results indicate that the benefit effect tends to outweigh the retirement effect furthermore this study has identified a negative interdependency between the level of personal savings and the retirement behaviour of elderly males a typical male worker saves more before retirement if that individual expects to stay a shorter time in the labour market retirement behaviour is less responsive to a change in personal savings behaviour than vice versa

the short term mortality consequences of income receipt many studies find that households increase their co nsumption after the receipt of expected income payments a result inconsistent wit h the life cycle permanent income hypothesis consumption can increase adverse healt h events such as traffic accidents heart attacks and strokes in this pape r we examine the short term mortality consequences of income receipt we find that mortality increases following the arrival of monthly social security payments re gular wage payments for military personnel the 2001 tax rebates and alaska permane nt fund dividend payments the increase in short run mortality is large potential ly eliminating some of the protective benefits of additional income

the variable rate of growth effect in the life cycle saving model the rate of growth in real gnp g affects the aggregate saving rate positively in life cycle saving models this rate of growth effect is invariably estimated as the coefficient of g in the saving function we show that other determinants of the saving rate influence the rate of growth effect in other words the rate of growth effect is not constant specifically the real rate of return on financial assets and the population dependency ratio determine the timing of saving over the life cycle and hence alter the rate of growth effect the dependency ratio also has an effect on the saving rate which is independent of g because it together with the foreign saving rate determines the level of saving over the life cycle

capital market imperfections and the consumption function a model is presented in which there is asymmetric information between borrowers and lenders two questions are asked i would liquidity constraints in such a model take the form of credit rationing or of a wedge between borrowing and lending rates and ii how do these constraints affect the aggregate consumption function some empirical

the effects of the basle accord on bank credit the case of japan this paper has documented the empirical evidence that the basle accord had significant effects on bank credit in japan the accord reduced the ratio of the credit increase to the total asset by 0 09 0 24 for banks with the international standard and by 0 06 0 21 for those with the domestic standard respectively according to the fixed effects model estimates the impacts of the regulation are in between 0 12 and 0 13 for those banks with the international standard these estimates are smaller than the corresponding estimate with aggregate time series data 0 40

inflation and savings international evidence on inflation induced income losses the fall in the average propensity to consume a p c in the i970s in most industrialised countries has been the subject of much debate it has been ascribed to a wide variety of causes most important it has been widely interpreted as a typical example of a situation in which economic forecasting has failed simply because it did not take into account the psychological effects of rapid changes in the economic environment given the inability of economists to predict sudden changes in consumer expectations these would naturally set severe limits to the usefulness of economic forecasting this paper takes a different approach to the problem it contends that the true fall in the a p c has been considerably lower than indicated by the statistics the argument runs roughly as follows the increase in the rate of inflation has led to a net transfer of real resources away from the personal sector this transfer was due to the fall in the real value of net monetary assets held by the personal sector and issued by the public and business sectors of the economy consumers considered this fall as negative income and adjusted their expenditure accordingly the definition of personal sector disposable income used in the national accounts statistics does not include such a correction in inflationary periods this leads to a large overestimate of true personal sector disposable income given this overestimate of the denominator it is hardly surprising that measured c y should fall when the rate of inflation rises the simplicity of this theory indicates that it can quite easily be subjected to empirical testing the tests proposed in this paper are based on a novel specification of the consumption function developed by davidson et al i978 henceforth dhsy this function has a solid theoretical foundation good statistical properties and allows both shortand long run phenomena to be easily incorporated in an acceptable manner simple theoretical considerations indicate roughly how one should go about measuring true income this corrected measure of income can be incorporated into the consumption function to be estimated in such a way that the coefficient of the correction term is endogenously determined in the regression the statistical properties of the resulting regressions are the evidence leading to a rejection or tentative acceptance of the theory

household saving out of different types of income revisited the purpose of this paper is to test for two hypotheses about household consumption and saving behaviour namely the substitution hypothesis according to which changes in corporate retained earningshave an offsetting effect on household savingand the hypothesis that consumption and saving out of different types of income vary cross country evidence from 13 oecd countries over the period 1963 80 lies very well in accordance with both of these hypotheses moreover results are robust to alternative specifications of consumption function to additional variables and to estimation methods

the interest elasticity of savings in developing countries the existing evidence abstract this paper presents a critical analysis of some of the most recent empirical work on the interest elasticity of savings in developing economies supported by a set of empirical results the paper argues that a the real interest elasticity of savings is not easily detected using the existing empirical models which generally yield insignificant interest rate parameters in the seventies b the existing models suffer from serious defects that make if very difficult to interpret the estimated parameters

social interaction effects in disability pension participation evidence from plant downsizing we estimate the magnitude of social interaction effects in disability pension participation among older workers in norway the problem of omitted variable bias is addressed using the exposure of an individual s neighbors to plant downsizing events as an instrument for the disability entry rate among the individual s previously employed neighbors our instrumental variable iv estimates suggest that an increase of one percentage point in the participation rate of previously employed neighbors increased the subsequent four year entry rate of older workers by about 0 4 percentage points numerous robustness and specification tests appear to support the validity of the identifying assumption in our iv strategy

household expenditure and the income tax rebates of 2001 using questions expressly added to the consumer expenditure survey we estimate the change in consumption expenditures caused by the 2001 federal income tax rebates and test the permanent income hypothesis we exploit the unique randomized timing of rebate receipt across households households spent 20 to 40 percent of their rebates on nondurable goods during the three month period in which their rebates arrived and roughly two thirds of their rebates cumulatively during this period and the subsequent three month period the implied effects on aggregate consumption demand are substantial consistent with liquidity constraints responses are larger for households with low liquid wealth or low income

inflation and savings testing deaton s hypothesis a money illusion savings function in which unanticipated inflation affects the savings ratio positively is tested this is strongly supported by finnish data goodness of fit statistics are quite high and the coefficient estimates are of the expected sign and are highly significant standard stability tests of both the brown durbin evans type and of the vpr type are generally rather favourable finally cross country evidence from ten oecd countries gives further support for the suggested specification

economic conditions and alcohol problems this study investigates the relationship between macroeconomic conditions and two alcohol related outcomes liquor consumption and highway vehicle fatalities fixed effect models are estimated for the 48 contiguous states over the 1975 1988 time period alcohol consumption and traffic deaths vary procyclically with a major portion of the effect of economic downturns attributed to reductions in incomes rather than employment the intake of hard liquor is the most sensitive to the state of the macroeconomy there is no evidence however that fluctuations in economic conditions have a disproportionate impact on the drunk driving of young adults

the permanent income hypothesis estimation and testing by instrumental variables the permanent income hypothesis with rational expectation is restated estimated and tested by an instrumental variables technique on the postwar u s aggregate time series data the hypothesis is accepted on a consumption series which includes service flows from consumer durables if the consumption series is the one in the national income and product accounts the hypothesis is decisively rejected an explanation is suggested to reconcile the conflicting test results

the reaction of household consumption to predictable changes in social security taxes the key implication of rational expectations and the basic life cycle permanent income hypothesis that predictable changes in income have no effect on the growth rate of consumption expenditures is examined this implication is important for understanding the effectiveness and optimal timing of fiscal policy the causes and propagation of business cycles and the effects of income fluctuations on the growth rate of the economy using household level consumption data from the consumer expenditure survey whether expenditures on nondurable goods increase contemporaneously with predictable changes in social security tax withholding is tested it is found that households do change their consumption expenditures in response to the predictable fluctuations in income induced by the social security tax system

does drinking really decrease in bad times this paper investigates the relationship between macroeconomic conditions and drinking using individual level data from 1987 to 1999 interview years of the behavioral risk factor surveillance system brfss we confirm the procyclical variation in overall drinking identified in previous research using aggregate sales data and show that this largely results from changes in consumption by existing drinkers rather than movements into or out of drinking moreover the decrease occurring during bad economic times is concentrated among heavy consumers with light drinking actually rising we also find no evidence that the decline in overall alcohol use masks a rise for persons becoming unemployed during contractions these results suggest that any stress induced increases in drinking during bad economic times are more than offset by declines resulting from changes in economic factors such as lower incomes

do consumers react to anticipated income changes evidence from the alaska permanent fund a central implication of the life cycle permanentincome hypothesis lc pih is that consumers should not respond to predictable changes in their income to test this hypothesis a number of recent papers have exploited natural experiments to identify anticipated income changes in particular recent work by parker 1999 uses the change in after tax income due to the cap on earnings subject to the social security tax and a related paper by souleles 1999 examines the response of consumption to income tax refunds surprisingly parker and souleles find that even when income is expected to change within the year expenditure is excessively sensitive to the timing of the income change while their results can be interpreted as evidence that our canonical model of consumption is inadequate an alternative explanation is that the anticipated income changes they exploit are small and irregular and that households will not bother to change their consumption paths when the computational costs involved are large relative to the utility gains in support of this interpretation browning and collado 2001 find that the seasonal consumption patterns of spanish households that work in sectors that provide regular bonus payments do not differ from those of households that do not receive bonus payments this paper adds to this evidence by exploiting a natural experiment provided by annual payments from the state of alaska s permanent fund to every resident in the state of alaska that should yield an unusually powerful test of the lc pih these payments are large and clearly anticipated by alaskan residents using the variation in the size of the payments over time and in the amount received by families of different sizes to identify the response of consumption to payments from the permanent fund i find no evidence that the consumption of alaskan households reacts to these payments in addition i find no evidence that the seasonal pattern of consumption in alaska differs from that in the other 49 states or that households in alaska are subject to fewer liquidity constraints engage in less buffer stock saving or spend a smaller fraction of their income on semidurable goods than households in the rest of the united states however although households in alaska do not overreact to payments from the permanent fund i find that the consumption of the very same households is excessively sensitive to their income tax refunds this evidence suggest that households will take anticipated income changes into account in their consumption decisions when the income changes are large regular and easy to predict but will not do so when they are small and irregular the paper proceeds as follows the next section of the paper presents details on the department of economics princeton university princeton nj 08544 and national bureau of economic research e mail chsieh princeton edu i am very grateful to the bureau of labor statistics bls for providing access to the data from the consumer expenditure survey and to its staff particularly steven henderson walter vandeheide and wolf weber for their generous assistance during my visits to the bls i also thank nanci jones for providing data and patiently answering questions on the operation of the alaska permanent fund anne case angus deaton jonathan parker and two referees provided useful comments the views expressed in this paper are personal and should not be attributed to the bls 1 i refer to the certainty equivalent version of the lc pih or one in which the expected variance of consumption is constant as is well known without these assumptions the lc pih only implies smoothing of marginal utility not necessarily of consumption 2 see christina h paxson 1992 john shea 1995 jonathan a parker 1999 nicholas s souleles 1999 martin browning and m dolores collado 2001 also see ronald a bodkin 1959 for an early example of the use of a natural experiment to test for excess sensitivity for comprehensive reviews of the large literature on empirical tests of the lc pih see angus deaton 1992 browning and annamaria lusardi 1996 and browning and thomas f crossley 2001 3 in 1998 for example the permanent fund paid 1 541 to every resident of the state of alaska

a note on economic conditions and alcohol problems this paper reexamines the effect of the business cycle on alcohol consumption using u s state level analysis introduced by rhum ruhm c j 1995 economic conditions and alcohol problems journal of health economics 14 583 603 using an extended panel this analysis finds that ruhm s estimates are biased and inconsistent due to the problem of non stationarity in alcohol consumption and state economic condition time series corrected estimation using logarithmic first differences confirms ruhm s original finding of pro cyclical alcohol consumption but these results unlike ruhm s are robust to sample period

corporate retained earnings and personal sector saving a test of the life cycle hypothesis of saving the dynamic personal saving function proposed by swamy 1968 nests in a common framework the life cycle hypothesis lch and the houthakker taylor 1970 model of saving having accounted for a limitation of the generality of the swamy result which regards the role of corporate retention in the two models the swamy framework is used to test the lch implication of perfect substitutability between personal saving and corporate retained earnings using uk data for the 1951 83 period the empirical results cast doubt on the perfect substitution hypothesis

union contracts and the life cycle permanent income hypothesis this paper isolates households in the psid whose heads can be matched to particular long term union contracts with high confidence the author uses use published information on these contracts to construct a household specific measure of expected wage growth he finds that predictable wage movements are significantly correlated with consumption changes contrary to neoclassical consumption theory the author finds that consumption responds more strongly to predictable income declines than to predictable income increases this asymmetry is inconsistent with liquidity constraints and myopia but is qualitatively consistent with models in which preferences exhibit loss aversion copyright 1995 by american economic association

the effect of changes in the federal funds rate target on market interest rates in the 1970s abstract this paper examines the influence of monetary policy on interest rates by estimating the effect of changes in the federal funds rate target the federal reserve s policy instrument on market interest rates in the 1970s we find that changes in the target caused large movements in short term rates and smaller but significant movements in intermediate and long term rates we hypothesize that the similarity of the reactions of three six and twelve month rates to changes in the target offers a possible explanation for the lack of support for the expectations theory from studies that have tested the theory using these rates

who suffers during recessions in this paper we examine how business cycles affect labor market outcomes in the united states we conduct a detailed analysis of how cycles affect outcomes differentially across persons of differing age education race and gender and we compare the cyclical sensitivity during the great recession to that in the early 1980s recession we present raw tabulations and estimate a state panel data model that leverages variation across u s states in the timing and severity of business cycles we find that the impacts of the great recession are not uniform across demographic groups and have been felt most strongly for men black and hispanic workers youth and low education workers these dramatic differences in the cyclicality across demographic groups are remarkably stable across three decades of time and throughout recessionary periods and expansionary periods for the 2007 recession these differences are largely explained by differences in exposure to cycles across industry occupation employment

inflation tight money and household saving behavior finnish evidence the hypothesis put forward by deaton in particular that real income and price innovations have a positive effect on the savings ratio is tested as points of reference two models are used in which consumers uncertainty about relative prices in a cross section and an intertemporal sense respectively plays a major role in completing the models a tight money variable is also introduced as a factor which affects the savings ratio evidence from finnish quarterly data for the period 1966 1979 provides strong support for this hypothesis results are relatively robust with respect to alternative proxies for real income and price innovations as well as to alternative specifications of the tight money variable

mortality and the business cycle evidence from individual and aggregated data there has been much interest recently in the relationship between economic conditions and mortality with some studies showing that mortality is pro cyclical while others find the opposite some suggest that the aggregation level of analysis e g individual vs regional matters we use both individual and aggregated data on a sample of 20 64 year old swedish men from 1993 to 2007 our results show that the association between the business cycle and mortality does not depend on the level of analysis the sign and magnitude of the parameter estimates are similar at the individual level and the aggregate county level both showing pro cyclical mortality

parental job loss and children s school performance using norwegian register data we estimate how children s school performance is affected by their parents exposure to plant closure our estimates suggest that paternal job loss has a negative effect on children s school performance in contrast maternal job loss is associated with a non significant increase in school performance importantly the negative effect of paternal job loss appears largely unrelated to its effect on father s income father s employment status a shift in maternal time towards employment marital dissolution and residential relocation a disparate effect of job loss across fathers and mothers is however consistent with recent empirical studies documenting that the mental distress experienced by displaced workers is generally more severe for men than women

liquidity economic activity and mortality abstract we document a within month mortality cycle where deaths decline before the first day of the month and spike after the first this cycle is present across a wide variety of causes and demographic groups a similar cycle exists for a range of economic activities suggesting the mortality cycle may be due to short term variation in levels of economic activity we provide evidence that the within month activity cycle is generated by liquidity our results suggest a causal pathway whereby liquidity problems reduce activity which in turn reduces mortality these relationships may help explain the procyclical nature of mortality

why are recessions good for your health a series of influential papers by christopher j ruhm 2000 2003 2005 2008 documents that recessions are good for your health or more specifically that state level mortality rates are strongly procyclical the magnitude of the correlation is economically meaningful a typical estimate from the literature suggests that a 1 percentage point increase in a state s unemployment rate is associated with a 0 54 percent reduction in that state s mortality rates if this reflects a causal relationship that is also valid at the national level then a 1 percentage point increase in the unemployment rate would translate based on 2004 mortality rates into about 12 000 fewer deaths per year these findings are frequently interpreted as resulting from the rising opportunity cost of time that accompanies better labor market opportunities and some empirical support exists for this interpretation for example ruhm 2000 shows that obesity and smoking also exhibit a procyclical pattern the economy and health

the macroeconomic impact of development aid a critical survey the early literature explained aid s macroeconomic impact in the context of the dual gap model showing a clear link between aid and growth many now believe that the empirical evidence shows there to be no such relationship this paper critically reviews the different theoretical perspectives the dual gap model the savings debate recipient fiscal response and aid as dutch disease and the empirical debates on aid savings and growth the basis for denying a relationship between aid and growth is shown to be weak though more recent areas of research offer promising directions for future work

does job loss shorten life this paper examines the impact of job loss on overall and cause specific mortality using linked employer employee data we identified the workers displaced due to all establishment closures in sweden in 1987 and 1988 hence we have extended the case study approach which has dominated the plant closure literature the overall mortality risk among men increased by 44 percent during the first four years following job loss while there was no impact on either female overall mortality or in the longer run for both sexes however there was an about twofold short run increase in suicides and alcohol related mortality

source of income effects for demand decisions and taxable consumption the relationship between sources of income and demand decisions by the household is examined here with an eye toward the ramifications on consumption tax bases income sources may be important when households attach psychic and transaction costs to individual purchases or when sources are assigned via a mental accounting process in either case general and specific sales tax bases may be affected by changes in income composition empirical results indicate two important findings first tax exemptions can introduce significant income source effects for a general consumption tax base second the importance of differential tax rates for gasoline and food at home strongly depends on the mix of labour capital retirement and non retirement transfer pay

monetary policy surprises and interest rates evidence from the fed funds futures market abstract this paper estimates the impact of monetary policy actions on bill note and bond yields using data from the futures market for federal funds to separate changes in the target funds rate into anticipated and unanticipated components interest rates response to anticipated target rate changes is small while their response to unanticipated changes is large and highly significant these responses are generally consistent with the expectations hypothesis of the term structure surprise target rate changes have little effect on expectations of future actions however which helps to explain the lack of empirical support for the expectations hypothesis at the short end of the yield curve

social security benefits consumption expenditure and the life cycle hypothesis this paper examines the impact of changes in social security benefits on aggregate consumption expenditure under the null hypothesis there should be no contemporaneous effect at the monthly frequency because increases in benefits have always been announced at least 6 weeks prior to payment the paper develops overwhelming evidence contrary to the null that benefits have affected aggregate spending the results have strong implications for several important issues including ricardian equivalence government policy irrelevance and the excess sensitivity of consumption to changes in income

financial and capital markets responses to changes in the central bank s target interest rate the case of japan we propose new proxy variables for monetary policy shocks in japan for the period from july 1989 to march 2001 and investigate the effects of changes in the policy target variable on stock prices and the term structure of interest rates we find that changes in the surprise component of the target variable significantly affect both intermediate term and long term interest rates a surprise decrease in the target rate of 1 leads on average to a 3 increase in stock prices the magnitudes of estimated reactions of financial variables are similar in japan and the us

a flow of funds analysis of crowding out some international evidence in a pioneering article in this journal zahn 22 investigated the separate and combined influences of increase in government spending and government borrowing on the time path of income the investigation was undertaken within the framework of a small quarterly model of the u s economy consisting of both commodity and financial flow of funds sectors by explicitly using government borrowing zahn tested the crowding out hypothesis as one involving both government spending and borrowing effects on the flow of funds between commodity and financial markets the combination of both the expansionary influences of government spending and contractionary influences of government borrowing on the time path of income determine the extent of real crowding out zahn distinguishes between pure and partial multipliers the influence of an increase in government spending financed strictly by an increase in government borrowing is measured by the pure multipliers they are based on the assumption that increases in endogenous net taxes as a result of an expansionary fiscal policy are held in a treasury account and offset in the government budget constraint by equal decreases in the monetary base on the other hand the influence of an increase in government spending financed in part by endogenous net taxes and the remainder by government borrowing is measured by the partial multipliers the major results in zahn 22 may be summarized as follows the pure multipliers show that the greatest influence of an increase in government spending financed strictly by borrowing is registered during the first two quarters but afterwards crowding out occurs the partial multipliers show similar results but crowding out is substantially less because borrowing requirements are reduced lastly the cumulative multipliers indicate that a sustained increase in government spending financed either by borrowing or by both endogenous net taxes and borrowing increases income during the sample period but at a decreasing rate and after many years the influence falls to zero in other words crowding out occurs as a result of the negative sign of the government borrowing multipliers but it is not large enough to outweigh the expansionary influence of government spending except in the very long run when the steady state government spending multiplier approaches zero zahn s conclusions are in principle compatible with those found in most previous and

paycheque receipt and the timing of consumption this article examines the consumption response to monthly paycheque receipt since the amount and arrival date of paycheques are known in advance the receipt of a paycheque does not coincide with the receipt of new information under the basic rational expectations life cycle permanent income hypothesis household consumption should not respond to paycheque arrival using data from the uk s family expenditure survey this article finds that household consumption is excessively sensitive to paycheque receipt the results cannot be explained by any underlying monthly expenditure fluctuations common to all households the presence of liquidity constraints as measured by wealth and age can account for the excess sensitivity results

the effects of government transfers on monthly cycles in drug abuse hospitalization and mortality this paper analyzes the monthly patterns of adverse outcomes due to the consumption of illegal drugs by recipients of government transfer payments we find evidence that certain subpopulations on government cash aid significantly increase their consumption of drugs when their checks arrive at the beginning of the month and as a result experience adverse events including hospitalization and death using data from california we find that the overall rate of drug related hospital admissions increases abruptly at the beginning of the month with admissions increasing 23 during the first five days of the month we find that this cycle is driven largely by recipients of supplemental security income ssi ssi recipients also experience an abrupt 22 increase in within hospital mortality after receiving their checks these findings suggest that full wallets adversely affect some aid recipients and that policymakers should explore alternate disbursement regimes such as a staggered disbursement schedule or in kind support that have the potential to reduce the rate of adverse events

losing heart the effect of job displacement on health job reallocation is considered a key characteristic of well functioning labor markets as more productive firms grow and less productive ones contract or close despite its potential benefits for t

saving and inflation some international evidence abstract this note contains empirical results for the disequilibrium saving function specification in which uncertainty about relative prices in a cross section sense plays a major role quarterly time series evidence from several oecd countries over the period 1967 ii 1980 iii lies in striking conformity with the view suggested particularly by deaton that there is a positive relationship between unanticipated inflation and the saving ratio

economic fluctuations and health outcome a panel analysis of asia pacific countries the purpose of this study is to assess the effects of economic fluctuations on health outcome by using data obtained from eight asia pacific countries over the period 1976 to 2003 and a fixed effects model to conduct the regression analysis the results of this study indicate that unemployment rate is negatively and significantly correlated with total mortality and mortality rates from cardiovascular diseases motor vehicle accidents and infant mortality these findings are consistent with the view that health may improve during economic downturns in addition suicide is found to move countercyclically with economic fluctuations socioeconomic factors such as age and gender also play important roles in affecting the mortality rates the results also show that unemployment has a stronger immediate and contemporaneous rather than a sustained effect on mortality rates finally this study concludes that the effects of economic fluctuations on health outcome tend to lead to erroneous conclusions if the fi

surprises in the consumption function the life cycle hypothesis has been the dominant theoretical basis for empirical work on the aggregate consumption function for about a quarter of a century under it real consumption is proportional to real life cycle wealth where the factor of proportionality depends on real interest rate expectations and the demographic structure of the population life cycle wealth is the sum of financial and human wealth however because the latter is the present real value of the stream of labour and transfer income expected over the life cycle it is not directly observable this fact has led to a great variety of proxying devices in empirical applications and in consequence much looseness in the interpretation of very different models as being all consistent with life cycle theory indeed one can argue that this has protected the hypothesis from being seriously tested and perhaps rejected an insight associated with friedman 1957 is that the view taken by consumers of life cycle income does not alter by much from period to period since there is greater persistence in life cycle income than in current income this also explains the greater persistence of consumption than of current income intuitively this would suggest that lagged consumption being related to last period s perception of life cycle income which in turn is not much different from this period s perception should have a major role in predicting current consumption this intuition was formalised by hall 1978 using ideas familiar from the study of stock market prices and the term structure of interest rates hall showed that if the real rate of interest is constant and given a number of other assumptions including no transitory element in consumption then the life cycle hypothesis implies that

pro cyclical mortality across socioeconomic groups and health status abstract using variation across geographic regions a number of studies from the u s and other developed countries have found more deaths in economic upturns and less deaths in economic downturns we use data from regions in norway for 1977 2008 and find the same pro cyclical patterns using individual level register data for the identical population we find that disadvantaged socioeconomic groups are not hit harder by pro cyclical mortality than advantaged groups we also find that other indicators of deteriorated health than death like becoming disabled are pro cyclical overall our analysis suggests that pro cyclical mortality is rather related to deaths of people already in deteriorated health than to people of low socioeconomic status

analysing disequilibrium interest rate systems in developing countries abstract under equilibrium conditions monetary policy measures to raise institutional interest rates are contractionary when interest rates are held below their free market equilibrium levels however an increase can be expansionary higher institutional interest rates may deter savings in the form of unproductive inflation hedges and encourage savings in the form of financial claims issued to finance productive investment in most developing countries money is the predominant financial repository of savings and bank loans are a major source of investible funds hence attention is focused here on models which analyse the effects of binding interest rate ceilings on financial intermediation empirical evidence reported in this paper is consistent with the view that binding institutional interest rate ceilings can have a substantial growth reducing impact

the response of household consumption to income tax refunds a central implication of the life cycle or permanent income theory is that consumption should not respond to predictable fluctuations in income tests of this implication have yielded mixed results especially on micro data angus deaton 1992 martin browning and annamaria lusardi 1996 in large part this might be due to the difficulties of isolating the predictable component of income at the micro level most tests proceed by instrumenting for income but since the available instruments are typically poor such tests might be prejudiced against finding significant excess sensitivity of consumption to income john shea 1995 also it is not clear how closely the resulting econometric predictions of income coincide with agents actual expectations of income to avoid these difficulties this paper examines the response of household consumption to a particular type of income that is both predictable and transitory income tax refunds since a refund depends on events in the previous calendar year it is predictable income as regards consumption in the year of its receipt consequently under the life cycle theory consumption should not increase on receipt of a refund 2 in addition to testing the canonical model of consumption this paper provides estimates interpretable as the marginal propensity to consume mpc out of refunds since federal tax refunds now amount to over 80 billion per year averaging well over 1 000 per refund these estimates are of interest in themselves more generally they bear on the impact of even preannounced and temporary changes in fiscal policy the paper begins by surveying related studies in section i section ii describes the data the consumer expenditure survey cex which of the leading u s micro data sets has the most comprehensive coverage of expenditure the empirical specification is set out in section hi section iv reports the results and section v concludes

local labor market fluctuations and health is there a connection and for whom we examine the relationship between local labor market conditions and several measures of health and health behaviors for a sample of working aged men living in the 58 largest metropolitan areas in the united states we find evidence of procyclical relationships for weight related health and mental health for men with low ex ante employment probabilities separate estimates suggest worsening labor market conditions lead to weight gains and reduced mental health among african american men and lower mental health among less educated males among our findings those related to mental health are most pronounced

recessions healthy no more abstract over the 1976 2010 period total mortality shifted from strongly procyclical to being weakly or unrelated to macroeconomic conditions the association is likely to be poorly measured when using short less than 15 year analysis periods deaths from cardiovascular disease and transport accidents continue to be procyclical however countercyclical patterns have emerged for fatalities from cancer mortality and external causes among the latter non transport accidents particularly accidental poisonings play an important role

testing the stability of the hall consumption function specification abstract this paper contains stability tests of hall s consumption specification by using cross country data from 11 oecd countries taken as a whole results are in favour of hall s hypothesis even though there is some conflicting evidence

is there a daily discount rate evidence from the food stamp nutrition cycle abstract quasi hyperbolic discounting predicts impatience over short run tradeoffs i present a direct non laboratory test of this implication using data on the nutritional intake of food stamp recipients caloric intake declines by 10 to 15 percent over the food stamp month implying a significant preference for immediate consumption these findings constitute a rejection of the permanent income hypothesis and are extremely difficult to reconcile with exponential discounting the data support an explanation based on time preference and reject several alternative explanations including highly elastic intertemporal substitution i explore implications for the optimal timing of transfer payments under alternative assumptions about preferences

seasonality in the u s motion picture industry the observed seasonality of box office revenues reflects both seasonality in underlying demand for movies and seasonality in the number and quality of available movies i separately identify these aspects by estimating weekly demand for movies using movie fixed effects a long panel of movies weekly revenues and restrictions on their decay pattern i find that the estimated seasonality in underlying demand is much smaller and slightly different from the observed seasonality of sales the biggest movies are released at times when demand is highest amplifying the underlying seasonality price rigidities in the industry may facilitate this amplification effect

measuring the reaction of monetary policy to the stock market movements in the stock market can have a significant impact on the macroeconomy and are therefore likely to be an important factor in the determination of monetary policy however little is known about the magnitude of the federal reserve s reaction to the stock market in part because the simultaneous response of equity prices to interest rates makes it difficult to estimate this paper uses an identification technique based on the heteroskedasticity of stock market returns to measure the reaction of monetary policy to the stock market we find a significant policy response with a 5 percent rise fall in the s p 500 index increasing the likelihood of a 25 basis point tightening easing by about a half

recession depression mental health effects of the 2008 stock market crash do sudden large wealth losses affect mental health we use exogenous variation in the interview dates of the 2008 health and retirement study to assess the impact of large wealth losses on mental health among older u s adults we compare cross wave changes in wealth and mental health for respondents interviewed before and after the october 2008 stock market crash we find that the crash reduced wealth and increased feelings of depression and use of antidepressant drugs and that these effects were largest among respondents with high levels of stock holdings prior to the crash these results suggest that sudden wealth losses cause immediate declines in subjective measures of mental health however we find no evidence that wealth losses lead to increases in clinically validated measures of depressive symptoms or indicators of depression

on some estimates of an asian savings function abstract recent empirical studies have led many economists to argue that a number of countries in asia could stimulate savings if they permitted higher rates of interest and accepted less foreign aid this paper critically examines the econometric basis of these claims for this purpose the model specifications found in past work are encompassed within a more general model so that they may be replicated and tested as restricted forms