evaluating welfare reform in the united states this paper reviews the economic literature on welfare reform over the 1990s a brief summary of the policy changes is followed by a discussion of the methodological techniques that analyze the effects of these changes on outcomes the paper then critically reviews the econometric and experimental literature on caseload changes labor force changes poverty and income changes and family formation changes a growing body of evidence suggests that recent policy changes have influenced economic behavior and well being one particular set of new style welfare programs seems to show especially promising results with significantly increased work and earnings and reduced poverty

the effects of welfare and tax reform the material well being of single mothers in the 1980s and 1990s abstract the tax and welfare programs that provide income and in kind benefits to single mothers have changed dramatically in recent years these changes began as far back as the mid 1980s and culminated with the 1996 welfare law that ended welfare as we knew it these tax and welfare changes have sharply increased the employment of single mothers and cut welfare rolls however little is know about the effects of these policy changes on the material well being of single mothers and their children studies of those leaving welfare have found that a substantial percentage have problems paying rent purchasing enough food and paying utility bills other studies found a decline in income among the worst off single mothers after 1994 or 1995 the goal of this paper is to examine the material well being of single mothers and their families before and after recent welfare and tax reforms using data from two nationally representative household surveys we examine the consumption patterns of single mothers and their families from 1984 2000 we find that the material conditions of single mothers did not decline in recent years either in absolute terms or relative to single childless women or married mothers this pattern holds for the average single mother as well as for low educated single mothers at both the 15th and 25th percentiles of the consumption distribution in most cases our evidence suggests that the material conditions of single mothers have improved slightly

accounting for the decline in afdc caseloads welfare reform or the economy we use state level monthly panel data to assess the relative contributions of the macroeconomy and welfare reform in accounting for the 1993 96 decline in aid to families with dependent children afdc caseloads our results suggest that the decline in per capita afdc caseloads is attributable largely to the economic conditions in states and not to waivers from federal welfare policies nationwide we attribute 66 percent of the decline to the macroeconomy however we do find substantial heterogeneity in the impact and timing of alternative waivers on afdc caseloads states with waivers impacting parental responsibilities experienced greater caseload declines than states with waivers that made work more attractive overall our model predicts that had it not been for the influence of economic factors welfare reform would not have led to any decrease in aggregate caseloads

robust dynamic estimation managing marketing resources over time requires dynamic model estimation which necessitates specifying some parametric or nonparametric probability distribution when the data generating process differs from the assumed distribution the resulting model is misspecified to hedge against such a misspecification risk the extant theory recommends using the sandwich estimator this approach however only corrects the variance of estimated parameters but not their values consequently the sandwich estimator does not affect any managerial outcomes such as marketing budgeting and allocation decisions to overcome this drawback we present the minimax framework that does not necessitate distributional assumptions to estimate dynamic models applying minimax control theory we derive an optimal robust filter illustrate its application to a unique advertising data set from the canadian blood services and contribute several novel findings we discover the compensatory effect advertising effectiveness increas

optimal advertising when envisioning a product harm crisis how should forward looking managers plan advertising if they envision a product harm crisis in the future to address this question we propose a dynamic model of brand advertising in which at each instant a nonzero probability exists for the occurrence of a crisis event that damages the brand s baseline sales and may enhance or erode marketing effectiveness when the crisis occurs because managers do not know when the crisis will occur its random time of occurrence induces a stochastic control problem which we solve analytically in closed form more importantly the envisioning of a possible crisis alters managers rate of time preference anticipation enhances impatience that is forward looking managers discount the present even when the crisis has not occurred more than they would in the absence of crisis building on this insight we then derive the optimal feedback advertising strategies and assess the effects of crisis likelihood and damage rate we discover the crossover interaction the optimal precrisis advertising decreases but the postcrisis advertising increases as the crisis likelihood or damage rate increases in addition we develop a new continuous time estimation method to simultaneously estimate sales dynamics and feedback strategies using discrete time data applying the method to market data from the ford explorer s rollover recall we furnish evidence to support the proposed model we detect compensatory effects in parametric shift ad effectiveness increases but carryover effect decreases or vice versa we also characterize the crisis occurrence distribution that shows that ford explorer should anticipate a crisis in 2 1 years and within 6 3 years at the 95 confidence level finally we find a remarkable correspondence between the observed and optimal advertising decisions

resource egalitarianism with a dash of efficiency abstract we study the problem of defining inequality averse social orderings over allocations of commodities when individuals have different preferences we formulate a notion of egalitarianism based on the axiom that any dominance between consumption bundles should be reduced this dominance aversion requirement is compatible with consensus a version of the pareto principle saying that an allocation y is better than x whenever everybody finds that everyone s bundle at y is better than at x we characterize a family of multidimensional leximin orderings satisfying dominance aversion and consensus

managing blood donations with marketing blood banks rely on marketing to encourage donors to give blood many if not most blood banks in the united states are community based not for profit organizations with limited marketing budgets as a result blood banks increasingly use novel and inexpensive online media i e paid owned and earned poe media in their marketing efforts we propose a dynamic model to help blood bank marketing managers understand how blood donations can be managed via online poe media we analytically characterize the optimal forward looking paid media strategies taking into account the asymmetric costs related to shortage and excess of blood as well as the possibility of a cost free target donation zone we detail new advertising resource allocation rules for blood banks and show when traditional allocation recommendations do not apply additionally we discover that under certain circumstances owned earned media activities hurt the blood bank s performance despite being predominantly free we validate our analytical model by using daily donation data from a community based blood bank and measure the effects of poe media activities on the level of blood donated

welfare egalitarianism in non rival environments we study equity in economies where a set of agents commonly own a technology producing a non rival good from their private contributions a social ordering function associates to each economy a complete ranking of the allocations we build social ordering functions satisfying the property that individual welfare levels exceeding a legitimate upper bound should be reduced combining that property with efficiency and robustness properties with respect to changes in the set of agents we obtain a kind of welfare egalitarianism based on a constructed numerical representation of individual preferences

welfare dynamics under time limits among the most important changes brought about by the personal responsibility and work opportunity reconciliation act of 1996 are time limits which provide consumers with an incentive to conserve their welfare benefits for future use among forward looking expected utility maximizing consumers who face liquidity constraints and earnings uncertainty economic theory predicts that the incentive to conserve should be strongest among families with the youngest children we test this prediction using data from florida s family transition program a randomized welfare reform experiment our estimates generally exhibit the predicted age dependence which suggests that time limits affect welfare use before they become binding our estimates indicate that in the absence of other reforms that increased welfare use ftp s time limit would have reduced welfare receipt by 16 percent

food stamp caseloads over the business cycle 1 introduction the onset of the current economic downturn following the longest expansion in u s history has renewed interest in the role of automatic stabilizers designed to insure households against negative cyclical income shocks this system of income and consumption stabilizers includes among others the individual income tax and the panoply of social insurance programs such as unemployment insurance and the food stamp program while the income tax and unemployment insurance have received recent attention gruber 1997 auerbach and feenberg 2000 kniesner and ziliak 2002a b little is known about the role of food stamps as an automatic stabilizer even though the program served over 27 million americans at its peak in 1994 this gap in the literature is particularly acute in light of passage of the personal responsibility and work opportunity reconciliation act of 1996 welfare reform act which introduced new rules on cash assistance recipients and thus the nearly half of food stamp recipients who also receive cash welfare moreover the 1996 welfare reform also had a direct administrative effect on the food stamp program by ending the eligibility of some recipients reducing average benefit levels and requiring states to replace paper coupons with electronic benefit transfer cards importantly the welfare reform act also eliminated the entitlement status of the main cash welfare program aid to families with dependent children afdc thus positioning food stamps as a more prominent countercyclical consumption stabilizer a first task in assessing the possible stabilization role of food stamps in the era of welfare reform is to identify the cyclical sensitivity of food stamp caseloads if food stamp caseloads are acyclical then we would expect no role for food stamps in smoothing consumption over the business cycle if however food stamp caseloads are highly cyclical then food stamps may function as an important antirecessionary tool by the same token the new welfare policies may independently affect food stamp caseload movements and interact with the business cycle thereby altering the possible stabilization role of the program in this paper we specify a dynamic model of food stamp caseloads to estimate the responsiveness of the caseload to the business cycle to welfare policies and to interactions between the business cycle and welfare policies unlike cash welfare there has been scant research on the cyclicality of food stamp caseloads 1 wallace and blank 1999 are a recent exception in their use of both static annual and dynamic monthly food stamp caseload models based on state level panel data for the 1980 to 1998 federal fiscal years with annual data food stamp caseloads were strongly countercyclical and reform of afdc led to weak declines in total caseloads 2 specifically they attribute up to 44 of the 1994 to 1998 food stamp caseload decline to economic conditions and about 6 of the decline to welfare reform they reach broadly similar conclusions with monthly data however wallace and blank calculate that upward of 85 of the post 1996 decline in food stamp caseloads can be attributed to welfare reform if one is willing to ascribe all the unexplained residual to welfare reform which as the authors note is undoubtedly an overestimate of welfare reform s effect on food stamp caseloads p 85 in their static models figlio gundersen and ziliak 2000 reached conclusions similar to wallace and blank s estimates with annual level data in their preferred dynamic models they attribute about 35 of the 1994 to 1998 caseload decline to the macroeconomy and virtually nothing to welfare reform we improve on this previous research on food stamp caseloads along several dimensions first we not only follow other research in estimating the impact of afdc policy changes on food stamp caseloads but also examine the impact of policies that are focused directly on food stamps

do states play welfare games abstract this paper uses a panel of state level annual data from 1983 to 1994 for each of the contiguous united states and the district of columbia to explore the degree to which states simultaneously set welfare benefits using instrumental variables estimation we find substantial empirical evidence that is supportive of the notion of welfare competition furthermore we find that state responses to neighbor benefit decreases tend to be significantly larger in magnitude as their responses to neighbor benefit increases our results therefore have potential implications for public policy in the wake of the increased decentralization of welfare policy associated with the welfare reform of 1996

fair production and allocation of an excludable nonrival good we study fairness in economies with one private good and one partially excludable nonrival good a social ordering function determines for each profile of preferences an ordering of all conceivable allocations we propose the following free lunch aversion condition if the private good contributions of two agents consuming the same quantity of the nonrival good have opposite signs reducing that gap improves social welfare this condition combined with the more standard requirements of unanimous indifference and responsiveness delivers a form of welfare egalitarianism in which an agent s welfare at an allocation is measured by the quantity of the nonrival good that consumed at no cost would leave her indifferent to the bundle she is assigned

how well does advertising work generalizations from meta analysis of brand advertising elasticities abstract the authors conduct a meta analysis of 751 short term and 402 long term direct to consumer brand advertising elasticities estimated in 56 studies published between 1960 and 2008 the study finds several new empirical generalizations about advertising elasticity the most important are as follows the average short term advertising elasticity is 12 which is substantially lower than the prior meta analytic mean of 22 there has been a decline in the advertising elasticity over time and advertising elasticity is higher 1 for durable goods than nondurable goods 2 in the early stage than the mature stage of the life cycle 3 for yearly data than quarterly data and 4 when advertising is measured in gross rating points than monetary terms the mean long term advertising elasticity is 24 which is much lower than the implied mean in the prior meta analysis 41 many of the results for short term elasticity hold for long term elasticity with some notable exceptions the authors discuss t

blood inventory management an overview of theory and practice blood inventory management has attracted significant interest from the operations research profession during the last 15 years a number of methodological contributions have been made in the areas of inventory theory and combinatoric optimization that can be of use to other products or systems these contributions include the development of exact and approximate ordering and issuing policies for an inventory system the analysis of lifo or multi product systems and various forms of distribution scheduling in addition many of these results have been implemented either as decision rules for efficient blood management in a hospital or as decision support systems for hierarchical planning in a regional blood center in this paper we attempt a review of the recent operations research contributions to blood inventory management theory and practice whereas many problems have been solved others remain open and new ones keep being created with advances in medical technology and practices our approach is not to present an exhaustive review of all the literature in the field but rather to address several important issues from a unified perspective of theory and practice and point out new areas for further research

social orderings for the assignment of indivisible objects in the assignment problem of indivisible objects with money we study social ordering functions which satisfy the requirement that social orderings should be independent of changes in preferences over infeasible bundles we combine this axiom with efficiency consistency and equity axioms our result is that the only social ordering function satisfying those axioms is the leximin function in money utility

the shape of advertising response functions revisited a model of dynamic probabilistic thresholds prior work in marketing has suggested that advertising threshold effects levels beneath which there is essentially no sales response are rarely encountered in practice because advertising policies settle into effective ranges through early trial and error thresholds cannot be observed directly and arguments for their existence must be based primarily on a statistical footprint that is on relative fits of a range of model types to detect possible threshold effects we formulate a switching regression model with two regimes in only one of which advertising is effective mediating the switch between the two regimes is a logistic function of category specific dynamic variables e g order of entry time in market number of competitors and advertising levels nesting a variety of alternative formulations among them both standard concave and s shaped responses a sequence of comparisons among parametrically related models strongly suggests that threshold effects exist that market share response to advertising is not necessarily globally concave that superior fit cannot be attributed to model flexibility alone and that dynamic environmental competitive and brand specific factors can influence advertising effectiveness these effects are evident in two evolving durables categories suvs and minivans although not in the one mature nondurable category liquid detergent studied

budget spillovers and fiscal policy interdependence evidence from the states abstract this paper formalizes and tests the notion that states expenditures depend on the spending of similarly situated states we find that even after allowing for fixed state effects year effects and common random shocks among neighbors a state government s level of per capita expenditure is positively and significantly affected by the expenditure levels of its neighbors ceteris paribus a one dollar increase in a state s neighbors expenditures increases its own expenditure by over 70 cents

fair income tax fairness is a key concept in redistribution issues in this paper we study how particular requirements of fairness can shed light on the design of the optimal income tax schedule we consider a population of heterogeneous individuals or households who differ in two respects first they have unequal skills and therefore unequal earning abilities second they differ in terms of their preferences about consumption and leisure and as a consequence typically make different labour time choices both kinds of differences generate income inequalities we study how to justify and compute a redistribution income tax in this context redistribution through an income tax usually entails distortions of incentives but the resulting efficiency loss has to be weighed against potential improvements in the fairness of the distribution of resources we address this efficiency equity trade off here by constructing social preferences which obey the standard pareto principle in addition to fairness conditions

importing the poor welfare magnetism and cross border welfare migration i test for welfare induced migration by comparing afdc participation in border counties to interior counties in the same state if migration costs are lower for border county residents border counties on the high benefit side of a state border should have higher welfare participation relative to the state s interior counties border counties on the low benefit side should have lower welfare participation relative to the state s interior counties the results obtained using county level data from 1970 90 indicate that having a neighbor with benefits that are 100 lower increases afdc expenditures in border counties by 4 0 6 8 percent relative to interior counties

two criteria for social decisions abstract this paper studies the ethical underpinnings of two social criteria which are prominent in the literature dealing with the problem of evaluating allocations of several consumption goods in a population with heterogenous preferences the pazner schmeidler criterion pazner schmeidler egalitarian equivalent allocations a new concept of economic equity quart j econ 92 1978 671 687 and the egalitarian walras criterion fleurbaey and maniquet utilitarianism versus fairness in welfare economics in m salles j a weymark eds justice political liberalism and utilitarianism themes from harsanyi and rawls cambridge university press cambridge 1996 forthcoming are prima facie quite different but it is shown here that these criteria are related to close variants of the fairness condition that an allocation is better when every individual bundle in it dominates the average consumption in another allocation in addition the results suggest that the pazner schmeidler criterion can be viewed as the best extension of the walrasian criterion to non convex economies

the effects of time limits the eitc and other policy changes on welfare use work and income among female headed families of all of the welfare reforms that were implemented during the 1990s time limits may represent the single greatest break from past policy this paper expands on what is known about this important welfare reform measure by exploiting the predictions from grogger and michalopoulos 2003 to estimate the effects of time limits on welfare use employment labor supply earnings and income among female headed families results based on data from the march current population survey suggest that time limits have had important effects on welfare use and work accounting for about one eighth of the decline in welfare use and about 7 of the rise in employment since 1993 they have had no significant effect on earnings or income however the analysis also shows that the collective effects of other reforms have had important impacts on employment and labor supply furthermore it identifies the earned income tax credit eitc as a particularly important contributor to both the recent decrease in welfare use and t

child support enforcement and welfare caseloads although there is a large body of research devoted to the issue of the determinants of welfare caseloads none of these studies has incorporated the effects of child support enforcement cse we employ annual state panel data from 1980 to 1999 and find that states with more effective cse have significantly lower welfare caseloads the improvement in cse over this period reduces welfare caseloads by about 9 percent in 1999 we also discover that individual child support variables may not be good indicators of state cse vigor and that a cse index that includes multiple dimensions of cse is more likely to capture the multiplicative functions of cse

policy watch the 1996 welfare reform welfare reform legislation was passed in the summer of 1996 four key research questions that the new law presents to social scientists are as follows 1 can states design and operate better programs than afdc this includes questions about the ability of afdc women to work a significant number of hours the legislation s effect in areas of concentrated urban poverty and the extent to which women will be able to improve their families economic status under the legislation 2 will jobs be available 3 how will the new block grant affect states fiscal situation and 4 what new research methodology questions does this legislation introduce

a review article the case against the use of the sum of compensating variations in cost benefit analysis this paper presents a case against the use of the sum of compensating varia tions as a cost benefit test we argue that 1 the ethical judginents implied by the test are not defensible 2 positive sums of compensating variations occur without potential pareto improvements resulting in social preference reversals without simultaneous scitovsky re versals 3 when lump sum transfers are feasible a positive sum of compensating variations is necessary but not sufficient for a potential pareto improvement 4 in order to eliminate preference reversals and intransitivities all households must have almost identical quasi homothetic preferences a condition that is not satisfied in real economies

what causes public assistance caseloads to grow this paper uses state panel data to investigate changes in public assistance caseloads through the end of the afdc program in 1996 with particular attention to the rapid increase in caseloads between 1990 and 1994 previous research has focused on total caseloads with attention to economic and policy variables and does a relatively poor job of explaining this caseload increase this paper utilizes a much richer set of control variables to investigate the causes of caseload change it separates afdc caseloads into three subcomponent programs separately investigating changes within the afdc up program afdc child only cases and the remaining core afdc cases with benefits paid to single mothers and their children and it explores whether this caseload rise was driven by changes in takeup rates versus in eligibility the results indicate a large unexplained rise in total afdc caseloads even with a very rich specification a good share of this is due to sharp increases in child only cases driven by program and demographic shifts to a lesser extent this rise was caused by the expansion of afdc up to all states these two factors explain half of the overall rise and all of the unexplained rise in afdc caseloads the remaining increase in core afdc cases benefits received by single mothers and their children is well explained within the model and is the result of economic demographic political and policy changes these variables appear to have increased eligibility among the core afdc population in the early 1990s during the economic slowdown takeup rates also increased during this time period but not by a large amount

price and advertising effectiveness over the business cycle abstract firms are under increasing pressure to justify their marketing expenditures this evolution toward greater accountability is reinforced in harsh economic times when marketing budgets are among the first to be reconsidered to make such decisions managers must know whether and to what extent marketing s effectiveness varies with the economic tide however surprisingly little research addresses this issue therefore the authors conduct a systematic investigation of the business cycle s impact on the effectiveness of two important marketing instruments price and advertising to do so they estimate time varying short and long term advertising and price elasticities for 150 brands across 36 consumer packaged goods categories using 18 years of monthly u k data from 1993 to 2010 the long term price sensitivity tends to decrease during economic expansions whereas long term advertising elasticities increase during contractions the long term own and cross price elasticities increase moreover

the possibility of social choice the subject of social choice includes within its capacious frame various problems with the common feature of relating social judgments and group decisions to the views and interests of the individuals who make up the society or the group some challenges and foundational problems faced by social choice theory as a discipline are discussed social choice theory is a subject in which formal and mathematical techniques have been very extensively used voting based procedures are entirely natural for some kinds of social choice problems such as elections referendums or committee decisions they are however altogether unsuitable for many other problems of social choice impossibility results in social choice theory led by the pioneering work of arrow 1951 have often been interpreted as being thoroughly destructive of the possibility of reasoned and democratic social choice including welfare economics that view is argued against

personal selling elasticities a meta analysis abstract this article presents a meta analysis of prior econometric estimates of personal selling elasticity that is the ratio of the percentage change in an objective ratio scaled measure of sales output e g dollar or unit purchases to the corresponding percentage change in an objective ratio scaled measure of personal selling input e g dollar expenditures the authors conduct a meta analysis of 506 personal selling elasticity estimates drawn from analyses of 88 empirical data sets across 75 previous articles they find a mean estimate of current period personal selling elasticity of 34 they also find that elasticity estimates are higher for early life cycle stage offerings higher from studies set in europe than from those set in the united states and smaller in more recent years in addition elasticity estimates are affected significantly by analysts use of relative rather than absolute sales output measures by cross sectional rather than panel data by omission of promotions by lagge

liberal egalitarianism and the harm principle this paper analyses the implications of classical liberal and libertarian approaches for distributive justice in the context of social welfare orderings an axiom capturing a liberal non interfering view of society named the weak harm principle is studied whose roots can be traced back to john stuart mill s essay on liberty it is shown that liberal views of individual autonomy and freedom can provide consistent foundations for social welfare judgements in both the finite and the infinite context in particular a liberal non interfering approach can help to adjudicate some fundamental distributive issues relative to intergenerational justice however a surprisingly strong and general relation is established between liberal views of individual autonomy and non interference and egalitarian principles in the rawlsian tradition

efficiency first or equity first two principles and rationality of social choice abstract this paper formalizes two different principles to socially rank allocations under efficiency equity trade off the efficiency first social preference relation ranks an allocation x higher than an allocation y if and only if i x is pareto superior to y or ii x and y are pareto noncomparable and x is equity superior to y the equity first social preference relation reverses the order of application of the two criteria we show that the efficiency first relation may have a cycle whereas the equity first relation is transitive we also characterize and compare the sets of maximal elements for these social preference relations in the edgeworth box and examine the nonemptiness of the sets journal of economic literature classification numbers d71 d63 d61

the labor market effects of welfare reform a major goal of the 1996 federal welfare reform was to increase the labor market participation of welfare recipients some analysts have speculated that if the reform is successful this increase in labor supply may exert downward pressure on wages and reduce the employment rate of other low skilled workers in the labor market the magnitude of these hypothetical labor market effects is uncertain because there have not been large changes in eligibility for federal welfare programs from which to draw inferences this study treats the 1991 elimination of the general assistance program in michigan as a rough analog to the 1996 federal reform in all about 82 000 able bodied adults lost benefits comparisons with other states indicate that employment in michigan increased by two to four percentage points among high school dropouts which corresponds to 25 50 of the original ga caseload there is little evidence of wage or employment declines

the economics of immigration this literature review concerns the impact of immigration on the economy of the host country focusing on the experience of the united states the emphasis is on the period from the 1970s to the 1990s the author shows that research earlier in this period generally concluded that the economic effects of immigration were positive but that more recent research on later migrations have generally concluded that immigration may be having an adverse effect on the earnings of native unskilled workers and be placing an increased burden on welfare programs the importance of such economic analysis for the formulation of appropriate migration policies is stressed

do in work tax credits serve as a safety net we test the eitc s response to economic need using irs data we exploit differences in timing and severity of economic cycles across states because the eitc requires earned income there is a theoretical ambiguity in the credit s cyclicality we find higher unemployment leads to increased likelihood of eitc recipiency and in credit amounts received for married couples but has insignificant effects for single individuals the eitc s protective effects are concentrated among skilled workers the eitc mitigates income shocks for married couples with children and groups likely to have moderate earnings but does not for most recipients single parents with children

measuring the effects of welfare time limits this paper develops a simple regression model that incorporates the behavioral dynamics of time limits and is estimable by panel data techniques by relating this model to reduced form analysis i clarify an implicit assumption that underlies a popular difference in differences did specification which understates the overall effects of time limits i also find that a considerable amount of dynamics is due to individuals reducing welfare use as their stock of remaining welfare eligibility depletes this generates more plausible predictions related to counterfactuals cumulative welfare use patterns and mechanical termination of benefits

planning media schedules in the presence of dynamic advertising quality a key task of advertising media planners is to determine the best media schedule of advertising exposures for a certainbudget conceptually the planner could choose to do continuous advertising i e schedule ad exposures evenly overall weeks or follow a strategy of pulsing i e advertise in some weeks of the year and not at other times previous theoretical analyses have shown that continuous advertising is optimal for nearly all situations however pulsing schedules are very common in practice either the pract ice of pulsing is inappropriate or extant models have not adequately conceptualized the effects of advertising spending over time this paper offers a model that shows pulsing strategies can generate greater total awareness than the continuous advertising when the effectiveness of advertisement i e adquality varies overtime specifically ad quality declines because of advertising wearout during periods of continuous advertising and it restores due to forgetting effects during periods of no advertising such dynamics make it worth while for advertisers to stop advertising when ad quality becomes very low and wait for ad quality to restore beforestarting the next burst again as is common in practice based on the extensive behavioral research on advertising repetition and advertising wearout we extend the classical nerlove and arrow 1962 model by incorporating the notions of repetition wearout copy wearout and ad quality restoration repetition wearout is a result of excessive frequency beca use ad viewers perceive that there is nothing new to be gained from processing the ad they withdraw their attention or they become unmotivated to react to advertising information copy wearout refers to the decline inad quality due to passage of time independent of the level of frequency ad quality restoration is the enhancement of ad quality during media hiatus as a consequence of viewers forgetting the details of the advertised messages thus making ads appear like new when reintroduced later the proposed model has the property that when wearout effects are present a strategy of pulsing is superior to continuous advertising even when the advertising response function is concave this is illustrated by a numerical example that compares the total awareness generated by a single concentrated pulse of varying duration blitz schedules and continuous advertising the even schedule this property can be explained by the tension between the pressure to spend the fixed media budget quickly to avoid copy wearout and the opposing pressure to spread out the media spending over time to mitigate repetition wearout the proposed model is empirically tested by using brand level data from two advertising awareness tracking studies that also include the actual spen ding schedules the first data set is for a major cereal brand while the other is for a brand of milk chocolate such advertising tracking studies are now a common and popular means for evaluating advertising effectiveness in many markets e g millward brown narketmind in the empirical tests the model parameters are estimated by using the kalman filter procedure which is eminently suited for dynamic models because it attends to the intertemporal dependencies in awareness build up and decay via the use of conditional densities the estimated parameters are statistically significant have the expected signs and are meaningful from both theoretical and managerial viewpoints the proposed model fits both the data sets rather well and better than several well known advertising models namely the vidale wolfe brandaid litmus and trackermodels but not decisively better than the nerlove arrow model however unlike the nerlove arrow model the proposed model yields different total awareness for different strategies of spending the same fixed budget thus allowing media planners to discriminate among several media schedules given the empirical support for the model the paper presents an implementable approach for utilizing it to evaluate large numbers of alternative media schedules and determine the best set of media schedules for consideration in media planning this approach is based on an algorithm that combines a genetic algorithm with the kalman filter procedure the paper presents the results of applying this approach in the case studies of the cereal and milk chocolate brands the form of the best advertising spending strategies in each case was a pulsing strategy and there were many schedules that were an improvement over the media schedule actually used in each campaign

games the states don t play welfare benefits and the theory of fiscal federalism fiscal federalism theory predicts that states will behave strategically in welfare programs because voter demand for welfare is sensitive to tax price while the tax price itself changes because of welfare induced migration this paper tests these propositions on afdc in the united states for a panel from 1982 88 using new models for the determination of the recipiency ratio the tax price and composite neighbors the data do not support any substantial tax price elasticity of demand for welfare estimates of migration effects on tax price are found to be sensitive to specification copyright 1995 by mit press

does the availability of high wage jobs for low skilled men affect welfare expenditures evidence from shocks to the steel and coal industries abstract we study shocks to the coal and steel industries to measure the effect of long term changes in demand for low skilled workers on welfare expenditures the coal and steel industries have historically paid high wages to low skilled men we find a substantial increase in welfare expenditures in response to the collapse of the steel and coal industries in the 1980s and an even more substantial reduction in welfare expenditures during the coal boom of the 1970s additional analysis indicates the reduction in welfare expenditures during the coal boom is due in part to a decline in single parent households

who was affected by new welfare reform strategies microdata estimates from canada abstracta heterogeneous mix of aggressive welfare reforms took effect in different provinces and years starting in the 1990s welfare participation rates subsequently declined previous investigations of these declines focused on cuts in benefits and stricter eligibility requirements this article focuses instead on work requirements diversion earning exemptions and time limits referred to jointly as new welfare reform strategies while controlling for benefit levels eligibility requirements province specific labour market conditions and gdp growth as well as individual level socio economic information province year specific variation in new reform strategies produce estimates implying that their presence is associated with a large decline in welfare participation of 1 3 percentage points 14 relative to the unconditional mean participation rate of 9 2 our coding scheme generates new measures of policy variation that distinguish reductions in benefit levels and tighter eligibility restriction

welfare the earned income tax credit and the labor supply of single mothers during 1984 1996 welfare and tax policy were changed to encourage work by single mothers the earned income tax credit was expanded welfare benets were cut welfare time limits were added and welfare cases were terminated medicaid for the working poor was expanded as were training programs and child care during this same time period there were unprecedented increases in the employment and hours of single mothers we show that a large share of the increase in work by single mothers can be attributed to the eitc and other tax changes with smaller shares for welfare benet cuts welfare waivers training programs and child care programs