the effect of urbanization affluence and trade openness on energy consumption a time series analysis in malaysia abstract this paper investigates the impact of urbanization on energy consumption by applying the stochastic impacts by regression on population affluence and technology stirpat in case of malaysia the study covers the time period of 1970q1 2011q4 the unit root test and the ardl bounds testing approach have been applied to examine integrating properties and long run relationship in the presence of structural breaks our results validated the existence of cointegration and exposed that urbanization is a major contributor in energy consumption affluence raises energy demand capital stock boosts energy consumption trade openness leads to affluence and hence increases energy consumption the causality analysis finds that urbanization granger causes energy consumption the feedback effect is found between energy consumption and affluence and energy consumption and capital the bidirectional causality exists between trade openness and energy consumption

a microsimulation model of swedish housing demand abstract this paper presents a microsimulation model of housing demand aimed at analyzing effects of changes in tax schedules like many other countries sweden s income tax laws treat homeowners and renters asymmetrically therefore most changes in tax laws will affect housing demand and tenure choice we develop a microsimulation model which generates consistent estimates of the mean and variance of total housing demand and show that commonly used measures like analytic elasticities evaluated at mean values of the exogenous variables can yield very misleading predictions our model can be used to simulate almost any change in the tax system here we report results of three simple experiments one of which is a change in the rate at which imputed income from owner occupied housing is taxed

how strong is the causal relationship between globalization and energy consumption in developed economies a country specific time series and panel analysis we examine the causal relationship between globalization economic growth and energy consumption for 25 developed economies using both time series and panel data techniques for the period 1970 2014 due to the presence of cross sectional dependence in the panel countries from asia north america western europe and oceania we employ the pesaran 2007 cips test to ascertain unit root properties the westerlund 2007 cointegration test indicates the presence of a long run association between globalization economic growth and energy consumption long run heterogeneous panel elasticities are estimated through the pesaran 2006 common correlated effects mean group cmg estimator and the eberhardt and teal 2010 augmented mean group amg estimator the causality between the variables is examined via dumitrescu and hurlin 2012 and emirmahmutoglu and kose 2011 granger causality tests the empirical results reveal that for most countries globalization increases energy consumption in the usa and uk globalization is negatively correlated with energy consumption the causality analysis indicates the presence of the globalization driven energy consumption hypothesis this empirical analysis suggests insightful policy guidelines for policy makers using globalization as an economic tool to utilize energy efficiently for sustainable economic development in the long run

a first empirical comparison of energy footprints embodied in trade mrio versus plum abstract the ecological footprint as an indicator that accounts for human demand on global bioproductivity sets out to quantify the impacts associated with consumption in a given country including the impacts associated with trade the national footprint accounts nfa by global footprint network gfn calculate trade embodied footprints by multiplying yield and embodied energy factors with mass volumes of traded goods in a product land use matrix plum this article compares energy footprints embodied in trade from and to the united kingdom in 2002 as calculated by the nfa plum with the results from a recently developed multi region input output model mrio for the uk although totals for imports and exports are comparable breaking down the results by economic sectors reveals large differences and hardly any correlation between the two methods the omission of trade in services especially transport services and upstream impacts of energy goods fossil fuels and the use of inappropriate embodied energy factors in the nfa plum method are identified as the main reasons for these differences in the light of the results it seems that a comprehensive footprint account of trade can better be achieved with an input output based approach i conclude that mrio models once fully developed will be particularly suitable in the future to estimate the ecological footprints of imports and exports of nations with the possibility to track their origin via inter industry linkages international supply chains and multi national trade flows

energy overview for globalized world economy source supply chain and sink abstract energy use of the globalized world economy is comprehensively overviewed by means of a systems input output analysis based on statistics of 2010 emphases are put on the sources of primary energy exploitation inter regional trade imbalance of energy use via global supply chains and sinks of energy use in final demand the largest final user turns out to be the united states compared with china as the leading energy exploiter the global trade volume of energy use is shown in magnitude up to about 90 of the global primary energy exploited the united states is recognized as the world s biggest energy use importer in contrast to russia as the biggest exporter approximately one third of global primary energy exploited is shown to be embodied in inter regional net trade japan and russia are respectively illustrated to be the world s leading net importer and leading net exporter of energy use for china as the leading energy exploiter about 30 of its exploited energy is for foreign regions final use and 70 for its own final use for the european union as the largest sink region nearly 80 of the energy required in its final use is from foreign regions led by russia as reflected in the results the conventional perspective based only on the direct energy consumption by region inevitably leads to inter regional energy grabbing and carbon leakage which raises a serious concern of regional decrease at the expense of global increase in current context of energy shortage and climate change this global energy overview can provide essential strategic implications at the international national and regional scales for sustainable energy policy making

energy embodied in the international trade of china an energy input output analysis abstract growing international trade has not only positively affected the people s republic of china s china s economic development but also expanded the exportation of energy embodied in goods during their production this energy flow out will pose risks to china s rational utilization of natural resources as well as environmental protection in this paper we evaluate the energy embodied in goods produced in china during 1992 2005 and use input output structural decomposition analysis to identify five key factors causing the changes of energy embodied in exports direct primary energy efficiency primary energy consumption structure structure of intermediate inputs structure of exports and scale of exports for the three sub periods of 1992 1997 1997 2002 and 2002 2005 results show that china is a net exporter of energy and the energy embodied in exports tends to increase over time the expanding total volume of exports and increasing exports of energy intensive goods tend to enlarge the energy embodied in exports within all three sub periods but these driving forces were offset by a considerable improvement of energy efficiency and changes in primary energy consumption structure from 1992 to 2002 and the effects of structure of intermediate input only in the sub period from 1992 to 1997 from 2002 to 2005 the sharp augmentation of energy embodied in exports was driven by all the five factors our research has practical implications for the chinese economy results of this study suggest that the energy embodied in trade should receive special attentions in energy policies design to limit the energy resource out flow and pollution generation

quantifying the supplier portfolio diversity of embodied energy strategic implications for strengthening energy resilience this paper investigates energy resilience of countries by quantifying the supplier diversification of both direct and embodied energy import in particular we quantify two approaches to diversify a country s supplier portfolio by lowering the dependency on each supplier portfolio diversification and by having embodied energy suppliers that are different from its direct energy suppliers portfolio differentiation we examine possibilities for strategic utilization of embodied energy trade to compensate for low diversity of direct energy trade for three types of fossil resources coal oil and gas we find that the diversity of embodied energy import is much greater than that of direct energy import of the three energy resources coal enables countries to adopt portfolio diversification and portfolio differentiation more than gas and oil our results suggest embodied energy can be considered as a transfer of energy resources across national borders that can directly benefit from the diversity of the world energy production by skipping the limited diversity of the world energy export

coal nuclear and renewable energy policies in germany from the 1950s to the energiewende over the last 50 years german energy policy has ranged from strong enthusiasm for both coal and nuclear energy to deep skepticism the most dramatic changes with respect to energy policies have occurred as a response to nuclear accidents yet the accidental and unintended effects of coal policies are also important in influencing the trajectory the newly emerging climate debate prevented the coal industry from acting as a substitute for the diminishing share of nuclear power in 2011 the conservative government announced the energiewende energy transformation and decided to reduce the amount of fossil fuels from 80 of the energy supply to 20 by 2050 however while the verdict on nuclear was unequivocal with a final phase out date of 2022 the share of coal in the electricity market did not decrease and the amount of carbon dioxide released into the air slightly increased from 2011 to 2013 there are growing conflicts over the immediate costs and practicalities of coal replacement consequently the future of coal in germany is still relatively open and contested

tenure choice and the demand for housing this paper deals with the estimation by means of nonlinear methods of preference parameters from observation of behaviour in housing markets it differs from previous work on housing market behaviour in several important aspects first it treats the choice of tenure mode that is whether to rent or own and the housing consumption decision as a joint decision second it explicitly uses the same behavioural model in analysing these discrete and continuous elements of housing market behaviour third it allows for an analysis of the role of capital market imperfections and discriminatory practices in constraining housing market decisions

analysis of energy embodied in the international trade of uk interest in the role embodied energy plays in international trade and its subsequent impact on energy security has grown as a developed nation the uk s economic structure has changed from that of a primary producer to that of a primary consumer although the uk s energy consumption appears to have peaked it imports a lot of energy embodied in international trade alongside the more obvious direct energy imports the uk has seen increasing dependency on imported fossil energy since the uk became a net energy importer in 2005 in this paper an energy input output model is established to calculate not only the amount of fossil energy embodied in uk s imports and exports but also the sector and country distributions of those embodied fossil energy the research results suggest the following uk s embodied fossil energy imports have exceeded embodied fossil energy exports every year since 1997 uk embodied energy imports through the so called made in china phenomena are the largest accounting for 43 of total net fossil energy imports if net embodied fossil energy imports are considered the gap between energy consumption and production in uk is much larger than commonly perceived with subsequent implications to the uk s energy security

role of embodied energy in the european manufacturing industry application to short term impacts of a carbon tax abstract role of energy in the manufacturing industry is a major concern for energy and environmental policy design issues like energy prices security of supply and carbon mitigation are often connected to the industry and its competitiveness this paper examines the role and consequences of embodied energy in the european industry to this end a multi regional input output analysis including 59 industrial sectors for all european union countries and 17 more aggregated industries for other regions of the world is developed other segments of the economy are not included this base is combined with energy consumption carbon emission as well as bilateral trade data for every sector in all included countries our main result is that embodied energy in manufactured products imports represents a significant aspect of the energy situation in european industries with quantities close to the direct energy consumption these flows can further be broken down for detailed analysis at the sector level thanks to the number of distinct industries included results demonstrate that an important part of embodied energy inside european products is not concerned with domestic energy price changes in addition a european wide carbon tax would induce an unbalanced burden on industries and countries

will economic restructuring in china reduce trade embodied co2 emissions we acknowledge the support of the national social science foundation of china project no project no 09 zd029 and the institute for energy environment and economy at tsinghua university which is supporting tianyu qi s doctoral research as a visiting scholar at the massachusetts institute of technology we further acknowledge the support of eni s p a icf international and shell international ltd initial sponsors of the china energy and climate project in the mit joint program on the science and policy of global change at mit none of the sponsoring organizations played a role in the study design collection analysis or interpretation of the data used for this study nor did they influence our decisions to submit the article for publication and all errors are our own we also acknowledge general industrial and government sponsors of the joint program on the science and policy of global change http globalchange mit edu sponsors all

life cycle theory inflation and the demand for housing there has been considerable interest lately in the influence of economywide inflation on the demand for housing under suitable equilibrium conditions such inflation creates three effects each of which may influence housing decisions first inflation raises initial mortgage payments through higher interest rates second it causes such payments to fall rapidly over time in real terms and third it creates a real growth in housing equity as borrowed debt is leveraged against the inflating value of homes two empirical studies one by kearl 6 and more recently by follain 3 have concluded that the sum of these impacts is adverse that is housing demand is reduced by greater economy wide inflation each suggests that credit constraints may explain this result in an attempt to understand better the microeconomic foundations of this empirical result schwab 9 and dougherty and van order 2 have developed fisher type models of intertemporal utility maximization which include a housing consumption choice schwab concludes that with a perfect capital market inflation should induce no distortion in consumer decisions about housing consumption dougherty and van order building on some unpublished work by poterba 8 argue that with interest deductibility from income taxes inflation reduces the after tax cost of housing capital and thereby increases housing demand these conclusions suggest that capital market imperfection must exist to explain the empirical results but just what kind schwab s paper addresses this question by introducing a borrowing constraint into a two period model 9 the constraint is absolute although schwab acknowledges that allowing collateralized borrowing is more realistic schwab s conclusions are two first he argues that if the constraint is nonbinding then the perfect capital market results prevail and second he demonstrates that if the constraints are binding the effect of inflation on

coal use for world economy provision and transfer network by multi region input output analysis concerns surrounding climate change and environmental challenge make the coal utilization network essential not only for understanding the pattern of energy provision and transfer but also for illustrating the interaction between anthropogenic activities and ecological systems at global level this paper fills the research gap by dint of multi regional input output model to outline coal embodied routes from natural boundaries to economic activities and to identify the central hubs in the global coal supply chain based on the most recent available statistics for 2011 as the economic value and environmental influences of different kinds of coals could be remarkably diverse the separation of coal categories in systematic analysis could provide fundamental information regarding the displacement and teleconnection of coal utilization in the world the estimation shows that in weight 64 99 of coal direct supply is ultimately embodied in international trade indicating the crucial roles of trade interlinks in global coal utilization apart from this the findings pertinent to sectoral structure regional supply chain and per capita characteristics of coal embodied utilization could be valuable to identify the global energy routes driven by international trade as well as to facilitate energy and environmental policy

co2 emissions energy consumption trade and income a comparative analysis of china and india in order to prevent the destabilisation of the earth s biosphere co2 emissions must be reduced quickly and significantly the causes of co2 emissions by individual countries need to be apprehended in order to understand the processes required for reducing emissions around the globe china and india are the two largest transitional countries and growing economies but are in two entirely different categories in terms of structural changes in growth trade and energy use co2 emissions from the burning of fossil fuels have significantly increased in the recent past this paper compares china and india using the bounds testing approach to cointegration and the ardl methodology to test the long and short run relationships between growth trade energy use and endogenously determined structural breaks the co2 emissions in china were influenced by per capita income structural changes and energy consumption a similar causal connection cannot be established for india with regard to structural changes and co2 emissions because india s informal economy is much larger than china s india possesses an extraordinarily large number of micro enterprises that are low energy consumers and not competitive enough to reach international markets understanding these contrasting scenarios is prerequisite to reaching an international agreement on climate change affecting these two countries

china s energy consumption under the global economic crisis decomposition and sectoral analysis abstract it is now widely recognized that there is a strong relationship between energy consumption and economic growth most countries energy demands declined during the economic depression of 2008 2009 when a worldwide economic crisis occurred as an export oriented economy china suffered a serious exports decline in the course of the crisis however it was found that energy consumption continued to increase against such a background this paper aims to assess and explain the factors causing the growth of energy consumption in china first we will explain the impact of domestic final use and international trade on energy consumption by using decomposition analysis second embodied energy and its variation across sectors are quantified to identify the key sectors contributing to the growth lastly the policy implications for long term energy conservation are discussed the results show that the decline in exports was one of the driving forces for energy consumption reduction in the crisis but that the growth of domestic demand in manufacturing and construction largely stimulated by economic stimulus plans had the opposite effect on energy consumption international trade contributed to decreasing energy consumption of china during and after the crisis because the structure of exports and imports changed in this period

the effect of globalisation on energy footprints disentangling the links of global value chains abstract this paper investigates the impact of global value chains on energy footprints energy footprints are consumption based indicators which record the energy used to produce a country s final demand in order to disentangle key characteristics of global value chains and their effects on the global energy footprint we employ structural decomposition analyses sda furthermore the analysis combines a retrospective with a prospective sda approach after an analysis of the global energy footprint for the period between 1995 and 2009 we discuss three scenarios of international integration and their implications for energy footprints for the period from 2009 to 2030 our results show that the global energy footprint has increased by 29 4 from 1995 to 2009 and the scenarios indicate that it will increase by another 23 5 until 2030 economic activity is the most important driver for the increase in energy footprints rising final demand alone would have increased the global energy footprint by 47 0 between 1995 and 2009 the composition of countries from where consumption and investment goods come adds another 12 6 sectoral energy intensity reductions are the most important decelerator of energy use 27 8 there is a substantial contribution of changing global value chains on the rise in the global energy footprint 7 5 stronger backward linkages in global value chains increased the global energy footprint by 5 5 between 1995 and 2009 changes in the regional composition of intermediate inputs raised it by another 1 8 the shift of the world economy towards east asia alone would have increased the global energy footprint by 3 0 the sectoral composition of global value chains on the other hand had a negligible effect on energy footprints

energy use embodied in china s construction industry a multi regional input output analysis abstract the rapid urbanization process was bound to produce considerable energy demand in china which increased the pressure on sustainable development this study employed a multi regional input output model to investigate energy use embodied in the consumption and interregional trade of china s construction industry results show that as a typical demand driven sector the construction industry consumed 793 74 million tons of coal equivalent in 2007 which is equal to 29 6 of china s total national energy consumption regions have been divided according to different driving forces for energy increment shanxi liaoning heilongjiang henan and sichuan were identified to be driven by their extensive construction activities and inefficient construction process interregional imports of the construction industry represented a resource dependent geographical distribution energy flows are from resource abundant areas in the central part to resource deficient areas in the eastern coast by contrast energy exports represented a regional discrete distribution which mainly transferred energy in the form of labor mobility and service supply this study provided insight into the current energy consumption status of provincial construction industry from both regional and sectoral perspectives which can be a basis for energy policy making and implementation

an econometric model of housing price permanent income tenure choice and housing demand abstract this paper addresses the determination of housing price permanent income tenure choice and housing demand full housing demand elasticities incorporate the interactive effects among the four stages of the model price and income have major effects in the tenure choice equation sociodemographic variables such as age have complex effects that may be lost in simpler forms of estimation

modeling energy and development an evaluation of models and concepts most global energy models are developed by institutes from developed countries focusing primarily on issues that are important in industrialized countries evaluation of the results for asia of the ipcc sres models shows that broad concepts of energy and development the energy ladder and the environmental kuznets curve can be observed in the results of the models however improvements can be made in modeling the issues that underlie these concepts like traditional fuels electrification economic structural change income distribution and informal economies given the rapidly growing importance of energy trajectories of developing countries for global sustainability the challenge for the future is to develop energy models that include all these aspects of energy and development

determinants of net carbon emissions embodied in sino german trade abstract the existing research on carbon emissions embodied in trade has been concentrated between net importing countries and net exporting countries few study has been conducted to analyze carbon emissions embodied in trade between net exporting countries to fill the research gap this work systematically investigated the net carbon emissions embodied in trade between the largest net exporter of developing countries china and the largest net exporter of developed countries german based on the non competitive input output analysis and the structural decomposition analysis was used to study the driving factors effecting the change of net embodied carbon emissions in sino german trade the results show the net carbon emissions embodied in sino german trade increased significantly with the sharp increase of net trade volume after china s accession to the world trade organization carbon transfer through trade was mainly concentrated in the carbon intensive industrial sectors in sino german trade this phenomenon was attributed to the differences in the trade structure and the production efficiency between china and germany the decomposition analysis shows china s intermediate input structure effect and the country structure effect of germany s final demand were the leading contributors to growth in net carbon emission in sino german trade which mainly was offset by china s carbon intensity effect finally some policy implications are offered

german s oil footprint an input output and structural decomposition analysis abstract it is generally thought that the country with net exports in goods is also a net exporter of energy embodied in goods in this work we report a paradox phenomenon which shows that germany was a net goods exporter but also a net importer of embodied oil based on the multi region input output model and structural decomposition analysis this paper comprehensively analyzed the changing trend and main driving factors of oil footprints in german trade the results showed that germany s embodied oil exports increased by 35 06 with the expansion of trade scale and germany s net imports of embodied oil fell by 45 49 during the study period although the focus of embodied oil transfer in trade was eu countries the embodied oil trade volume between germany and developing countries especially china grew rapidly from sectoral level heavy manufacturing and transport industry dominated more than 70 of the germany s embodied oil trade the decomposition analysis showed that the scale effect of final demand was the main factor that contributed to the growth of oil footprints in germany s international trade which offset the inhibition of oil consumption intensity the effect of production structure played an important role in the embodied oil trade and the low oil intensive industrial structure was the main reason why germany was a net importer of embodied oil

the allocation of capital between residential and nonresidential uses taxes inflation and capital market constraints we have constructed a simple two sector model of the demand for housing and corporate capital economic growth and an increase in the inflation rate were then simulated with a number of model variants the model and simulation experiments illustrate both the tax bias in favor of housing and the manner in which the increase in inflation between 1965 and 1978 magnified it the existence of capital market constraints offsets the bias against corporate capital but it introduces a sharp inefficient reallocation of housing from less wealthy constrained households to wealthy households who do not have gains on mortgages and are not financially constrained

dynamic modeling of housing tenure choice abstract in this study a dynamic random effects simultaneous equation model is developed to model household tenure choice decision the novelty of the study lies in accounting for the dynamic aspects of housing tenure mode namely a move is prerequisite to a change in tenure mode and they are determined jointly expected mobility and tenure choice are interdependent decisions and tenure choice may be state dependent i e taste for ownership acquired or reinforced through the experience of being an owner in addition unobservable household heterogeneity is controlled by imposing a random effects specification the estimation is based on panel data from the psid using the method of maximum simulated likelihood

structural decompositions of energy consumption between 1995 and 2009 evidence from wiod abstract energy is key to achieving sustainable development this paper explicitly distinguishes between the supply side of energy consumption and demand side of energy consumption and investigates the factors that affect the energy consumption across economies using data from the world input output database wiod this paper decomposes the relative changes of energy consumption into intensity effect production structure structural change in final demand total final demand effect and household consumption then it further decomposes production structure into inter industry structural effect and trade effect in intermediate inputs overall energy consumption growth is mainly driven by total final demand 55 04 increase at the world level but can be significantly reduced by intensity effect due to technological change 21 02 decrease at the world level there is heterogeneity of structure related effects across economies and within the same economy in both aspects of energy consumption in addition the trade effect and household effect are relatively small this paper provides an empirical framework for analyzing energy consumption in a globalizing world and suggests tailored and integrated energy policies

calculation of embodied energy in sino usa trade 1997 2011 abstract in order to find efficient trade measures to reduce china s energy consumption and to provide theoretical support for the climate talks between china and america we investigate the impact of sino usa trade on energy consumption from the perspective of embodied energy an environmental input output life cycle assessment eio lca model was established to calculate the total energy consumption coefficient the direct consumption coefficient and the complete consumption coefficient of the sectors of the national economies of china and america after taking into consideration the data of every sector of the national economy in sino usa trade energy embodied in the import and export trade between china and america was calculated to verify the real energy flows in sino usa trade the research results suggest the following china is the net exporter of embodied energy in sino usa trade and coal crude oil and natural gas are the major components in 1997 2011 the net exports of china s embodied energy totaled 1523 082 200 t of standard coal the amount of china s energy consumption increased by 895 527 900 t of standard coal and america s energy consumption decreased by 11 871 200 t of standard coal as a result of sino usa trade on this basis corresponding policies and recommendations are proposed

global primary energy use associated with production consumption and international trade presented in this study is a comprehensive analysis for energy use of different economic entities in global supply chains including the exploiter producer consumer intermediate trader and final trader the systems input output analysis method is adopted to trace the direct and indirect energy use associated with both intermediate production and final consumption activities in the economic system in the world economy 15 of the energy use embodied in trade turns out to be induced by final consumption and 85 is attributed to intermediate production different trading patterns for different economies are identified with the separation between energy trade for intermediate production and that for final consumption for japan with a production oriented trading pattern intermediate trade should be a top priority in local trade structure adjustment while final trade needs more attention for the government in the united states as the country is in a consumption oriented trade pattern this analysis aims to provide an in depth insight into energy sustainability as well as a sound scientific reference for policy making at the regional national and global scale

user cost and housing tenure in developing countries abstract this paper reports on research conducted at the world bank to increase understanding of developing country housing markets in particular of housing demand behavior the objectives of the paper are 1 to briefly review recent evidence on housing demand parameters in developing countries including new estimates for colombia egypt el salvador ghana india jamaica korea and the philippines and 2 to examine similarities and differences among cities in housing demand the analysis emphasizes differences in housing demand by tenure particularly for renters and owners but also for squatters and non squatters and paralleling the literature in developed countries stresses the importance of accounting for the impact of income and relative prices on housing demand

has energy conservation been an effective policy for thailand an input output structural decomposition analysis from 1995 to 2010 abstract thailand has depended heavily on imported fossil fuels since the 1990s which hindered the nation s economic development because it created uncertainty in the nation s fuel supply an energy conservation policy was implemented in 1995 to require industries to reduce their energy intensity ei and consumption immediately this study investigates the effectiveness of the policy between 1995 and 2010 using the hybrid input output approach surprisingly ei improvement was observed in only a few sectors such as transportation non metallic paper and textile an embodied energy decomposition analysis revealed that while households were the largest energy consumer in 1995 energy consumption in exports exceeded that of households in 2000 2005 and 2010 in addition structural decomposition analysis revealed the final demand effect was the strongest factor in determining the efficacy of energy conservation whereas the energy efficiency effect was not an effective factor as expected for decreasing energy consumption policy barriers and conflicting economic plans were factors that affected the outcome of these energy policies

estimating housing consumption adjustments from panel data abstract although time series analysis of panel data has generally not been used in the study of housing demand longitudinal analysis provides the opportunity to increase our understanding of housing adjustments over time in particular time series analysis of housing choice using panel data permits appropriate use of both time series and cross sectional variation in housing prices provides the opportunity to separate age and cohort effects and facilitates integration of mobility analysis with housing choice analysis in this paper a longitudinal discrete choice model of the choice of housing tenure and size is presented and estimated using panel data this conditional fixed effects multinomial logit model developed by g chamberlain is computationally convenient and successfully accounts for time invariant differences among households while household specific unobserved characteristics can be readily accounted for in a linear model this is not the case for a quantitative choice model the use of a model of the type employed here thus provides a crucial link between time series analysis and a discrete choice setting estimation of this model yields results with respect to age and price that differ from results obtained from individual and pooled cross sections this provides support for the plausible proposition that housing choices are intertemporally correlated and more importantly emphasizes the importance of accounting for this correlation to estimate consistently the parameters of housing choice models

housing vacancy and rental adjustment evidence from hong kong the traditional rental adjustment equation is flawed in that the equilibrium paths for the adjustment of rents and vacancy rates cannot hold simultaneously over time this paper suggests a two equation model of rental adjustments based on adaptive expectations rather than the single equation model presented in the traditional literature and provides empirical tests annual data from the housing market in hong kong during the 1980 96 period are consistent with the adjustment equation the results also show that the rate of change of real rents is neutral with respect to inflation

energy and carbon embodied in the international trade of brazil an input output approach abstract all goods and services produced in an economy are directly and or indirectly associated with energy use and according to the type of fuel utilized with co2 emissions as well international trade is an important factor in shaping the industrial structure of a country and consequently in affecting a country s energy use and co2 emissions this study applies input output techniques to the brazilian economy to evaluate the total impacts of international trade on its energy use and co2 emissions a commodity by industry io model in hybrid units energy commodities in physical units and non energy commodities in monetary units is applied to the brazilian economy in 1995 results show that total energy embodied in the exports of non energy goods of brazil equals 831 pj while total carbon embodied is 13 5 mtc these amounts are larger than the relevant amounts embodied in the imports of non energy goods respectively 679 pj and 9 9 mtc these figures are better understood by contrasting them with the total energy use and the corresponding total carbon emissions of the brazilian economy in 1995 estimated by this work 6781 pj and 99 4 mtc respectively this means that international inflows and outflows of energy embodied in non energy goods are in the order of 10 and 12 of the total energy use while inflows and outflows of carbon embodied in non energy goods are approximately 10 and 14 of the corresponding total carbon emissions of the brazilian economy in 1995 the general picture is that brazil is not only a net exporter of energy 153 pj and of carbon 3 6 mtc embodied in the non energy goods internationally traded by the country in 1995 but also that each dollar earned with exports embodied 40 more energy and 56 more carbon than each dollar spent on imports these findings suggest that brazilian policy makers should be concerned about the extra impacts international trade policy may have on energy use and carbon emissions of the country

quantifying the decision to become a first time home buyer becoming a first time homebuyer is quantified in two stages using household data a renter demand curve is estimated to calculate the consumer surplus gain from moving into housing consumption equilibrium probit is used to estimate the probability of becoming a first time homebuyer the model suggests that overcoming the transactions cost of buying and the gain from housing consumption equilibrium are important to the decision renting is explained by current housing demand through income and family size buying for the first time is explained by factors which reduce transactions costs such as assets marital status and education disequilibrium in rental housing consumption is also important the results further suggest that permanent income is not important to the decision

co2 emissions energy consumption economic and population growth in malaysia abstract this study investigates the dynamic impacts of gdp growth energy consumption and population growth on co2 emissions using econometric approaches for malaysia empirical results from ardl bounds testing approach show that over the period of 1970 1980 per capita co2 emissions decreased with increasing per capita gdp economic growth however from 1980 to 2009 per capita co2 emissions increased sharply with a further increase of per capita gdp this is also supported by the dynamic ordinary least squared dols and the sasabuchi lind mehlum u slm u test tests consequently the hypothesis of the ekc is not valid in malaysia during the study period the results also demonstrate that both per capita energy consumption and per capita gdp has a long term positive impacts with per capita carbon emissions but population growth rate has no significant impacts on per capita co2 emission however the study suggests that in the long run economic growth may have an adverse effect on the co2 emissions in malaysia thus significant transformation of low carbon technologies such as renewable energy and energy efficiency could contribute to reduce the emissions and sustain the long run economic growth

cross sectional estimation of a simultaneous model of tenure choice and housing services demand abstract in this paper we analyze the demand for housing services integrating into a single analysis a systematic treatment of several important conceptual and empirical issues our three major objectives are to 1 evaluate the empirical importance of the simultaneity between the tenure choice and consumption level decisions 2 analyze the relationship between household type and housing demand and 3 present new estimates of the parameters of housing demand which are based on detailed microdata in the process we derive and estimate overall income and price demand elasticities which incorporate the impacts of income and price on both the tenure choice and consumption level decisions

inflation and housing demand a new perspective abstract the effects of inflation on the housing market are investigated in this study of new house prices in 42 u s metropolitan areas from 1971 to 1978 the results show that estimates of the elasticity of real house prices with respect to the real user cost have been biased sharply downward owing to an errors in variables problem when the error term in estimating expected inflation is recognized explicitly the negative relationship between real house prices and real user cost is found to be very strong this analysis helps to resolve the conflict in the literature between the negative cash flow effects and the positive untaxed capital gains and declining real payment effects resulting from inflation

evaluating the effects of embodied energy in international trade on ecological footprint in china based on sub sectoral level of economy and detailed traded items embodied energy ee in international trade flow in china is estimated during 1996 2004 and the effects of ee on sustainability are quantified by using one of the most popular indicators ecological footprint ef a framework of ef method which is more relevant to realism of specific country is proposed in this paper the results show that china is a net importer of ee during the period covered by this study except for the year from 1997 to 1999 imported exported and net imported ee tends to increase sharply along time series net imported energy would increase 38 and energy consumption would increase 2 8 in 2004 if ee were taken into account footprint energy is the most important part of ef components and is significantly affected by ee and the effects of ee on ef are similar to that of footprint energy footprint energy ef and ecological deficit of 2004 will be underestimated about 2 92 1 36 2 83 respectively if ee is not taken into the national energy budget continuous increase of ef and ecological deficit along time series indicates that china is moving away from sustainability 1 47 times chinese territories are accurately occupied by china in 1996 while 1 71 times in 2004 obviously unsustainability procedure of china is accelerated by ee the contribution of ee to ef and ecological deficit is small in absolute terms expressed in per capita but the effects on whole nation are huge if the population of china multiplies them to curb the increase of ef and ecological deficit and to achieve the goal of sustainability some policy and measures are also proposed c 2006 elsevier b v all rights reserved

does inflation affect real behavior the case of housing an important tradition in economics is to assume that demand depends upon relative prices and is homogenous of degree zero for the most part this has been interpreted as meaning inflation changes in the price level leaves demand unchanged recent work by a number of economists has challenged this position for the case of housing demand two arguments have been made that inflation acting in concert with existing institutions alters the quantity of housing demanded and the decision to rent or own a house the first argument states that inflation and the standard fixed payment mortgage combine to reduce the size of the mortgage loan a household can obtain for the purpose of buying a home this works to reduce the quantity of owner occupied housing demanded given the importance of mortgage finance to the demand for owner occupied housing the second argument focuses on the inflation adjusted after tax cost of owner occupied housing it simply states that an increase in the rate of anticipated inflation of the general price level reduces the after tax cost of housing thus increasing the demand for housing and the demand for homeownership there has been little empirical testing of these two arguments the purpose of this paper is to formulate and estimate a model which will give an indication of the quantitative significance of the two arguments a housing demand equation and a tenure choice equation own versus rent are estimated using a sample of about 6000 households from the 1975 annual housing survey 10 the estimates suggest that inflation dampens housing demand and homeownership opportunity for most households even though the inflation adjusted after tax cost of owner occupied housing declines as inflation heats up the paper consists of six sections including the introduction section two examines the ways inflation affects housing choices in more detail the third section contains the specification of the econometric model that forms the basis of the study section four is a discussion of econometric problems and the data used the results of the estimates are discussed in the fifth section the paper concludes with a presentation of the major conclusions and policy implications of the study

housing price inflation family growth and the move from rented to owner occupied housing this paper uses data from annual housing surveys to investigate the relationship between growth in family size and the move from rented to owner occupied housing in the mid and late 1970s a series of studies conducted in the 1950s and 1960s established that growth in the size of the family triggered moves from rented to owner occupied housing changes in house price inflation during the 1970s may have altered the social and economic conditions associated with a move from rented to owner occupied housing log linear analyses of data from the 1974 and 1978 annual housing surveys indicate that while growth in the size of a renter s family continued to predict the purchase of owner occupied housing in 1978 the composition of the purchasing group changed significantly between 1974 and 1978 with childless couples increasing and households with children decreasing the declines in the latter group occurred primarily among poorer households the implications of these changes for the life cycle housing cycle

the embodied energy in trade what role does specialization play abstract many industrialized countries are net importers of embodied energy and emissions while many developing countries are net exporters we examine the role of specialization in driving these trade patterns by conducting a spatial index decomposition analysis on the embodied energy in net exports for 41 economies the results reveal that industrialized countries have generally offshored energy intensive production which many developing countries specialize in we find that specialization on average makes the biggest contribution accounting for roughly 50 of a country s embodied energy in net exports however other factors namely energy intensity and the trade balance combine to make an equally important contribution in summary specialization despite its significant role is not the only cause of the embodied energy trade patterns observed between industrialized and developing countries

comparisons of decoupling trends of global economic growth and energy consumption between developed and developing countries abstract the development of economy in developing countries is expected to contribute mostly to the growth of world energy consumption using environment impact gdp technology igt decoupling model we carry out a comparative study on the decoupling trends of economic growth and energy consumption for both developed and developing countries in past five decades 1965 2015 the results indicate that the decoupling indices of developed countries are superior to that of developing countries the specific performances are 1 the decoupling indices of developed countries are shown to be stable and tend to approximate absolute decoupling 2 the decoupling indices of developing countries fluctuate in the relative decoupling interval on this basis this research employs grey relational analysis gra to explore the reasons resulting in the difference of decoupling indices from the perspective of technical progress industrial structure and economic growth pattern the findings show that in developed countries technical progress factor exerts greatest influence on decoupling indices followed by industrial structure and economic growth pattern in developing countries industrial structure and economic growth pattern have greater impact on decoupling indices than technical progress based on research conclusion this research offers developing countries relevant policy suggestions for energy saving and emission reduction in the future

energy intensity and embodied energy flow in australia an input output analysis abstract decoupling energy use from economic growth is critical for improving energy productivity and mitigating climate change input output databases have been increasingly utilised for consumption based energy accounting and for exploring both the direct and indirect influence of energy use this study performed an environmentally extended input output analysis of energy use in australia from 2006 to 2015 to investigate the total energy intensity of industry sectors and the embodied energy flow from sources of energy use to the final consumption of commodities between 2006 and 2015 the national direct energy intensity reduced by an average of 2 per annum nearly all industry sectoral groups reduced their total energy intensity because of direct energy intensity reduction from other or within industry sectoral groups the difference between the embodied energy use in the import and the export had widened making australia a greater net importer of embodied energy with significant outsourcing of direct energy use and associated greenhouse gas emissions despite a slight reduction in per capita direct household energy use 3 the per capita indirect energy use embodied in household commodity consumption increased by 7 as indirect household energy use is more than three times direct household energy use improving end use energy efficiency should also consider the embodied energy in commodities structural decomposition analysis shows that for the studied period population growth and per capita demand for imported commodities are two major contributors for the increased total embodied energy in australia

imbalance of carbon emissions embodied in the us japan trade temporal change and driving factors abstract in us japan trade japan ran both economic export surplus and export co2 emission surplus with the us positive net monetary exports for japan were actually a kind of economic losses of the us while positive net export co2 emissions or net co2 emissions embodied in us japan trade were regarded as pollution transfer from u s to japan however due to lack of unified measurement units and standards between the two research fields it is difficult to directly assess whether positive effects of u s via carbon transfer outweigh negative effects caused by economic losses the study transforms absolute values of net monetary exports and net export co2 emissions from 2000 to 2011 in us japan trade into two ratios the ratio of net monetary exports to gdp of u s and the ratio of net embodied co2 emissions to total co2 emissions of the us by comparison the result shows that on average net monetary exports between u s and japan accounted for 0 45 of american gdp while ratio of net export emissions to aggregate consumption based co2 emissions of u s kept about 0 20 during the research period concerned which indicated that negative effects of economic losses in u s outweighed positive effects via carbon transfer in us japan trade furthermore a structural analysis of co2 emissions embodied in us japan trade during the 11 years is given the most significant driver was emission coefficients defined as co2 emissions per unit of energy consumption the driving force of emission coefficients led to dramatic reduction in co2 flows from japan to the us and thus caused decrease of net export emissions which also explained the major reason for the low ratio of export emissions to total co2 emissions of the us finally according to sectoral distributions of co2 flows between japan and the us emission sources of two countries presented different characteristics