sticky prices and monetary policy evidence from disaggregated us data this paper disentangles fluctuations in disaggregated prices due to macroeconomic and sectoral conditions using a factor augmented vector autoregression estimated on a large data set on the basis of this estimation we establish eight facts 1 macroeconomic shocks explain only about 15 of sectoral inflation fluctuations 2 the persistence of sectoral inflation is driven by macroeconomic factors 3 while disaggregated prices respond quickly to sector specific shocks their responses to aggregate shocks are small on impact and larger thereafter 4 most prices respond with a significant delay to identified monetary policy shocks and show little evidence of a price puzzle contrary to existing studies based on traditional vars 5 categories in which consumer prices fall the most following a monetary policy shock tend to be those in which quantities consumed fall the least 6 the observed dispersion in the reaction of producer prices is relatively well explained by the degree of market power 7 prices in sectors with volatile idiosyncratic shocks react rapidly to aggregate monetary policy shocks 8 the sector specific components of prices and quantities move in opposite directions

cost benefit assessment of energy efficiency investments accounting for future resources savings and risks in the australian residential sector this article focuses on the impact of the discount rate on cost benefit assessment of investment options for residential building efficiency an integrated thermal modeling life cycle costing approach is applied to an extensive sample of dominant house designs for australian conditions the relative significance of predicted thermal performance and the applied discount rate on the present value of energy savings from alternative investment scenarios is investigated costs and benefits are also evaluated at the economy wide scale including carbon pricing considerations and for a test case household faced with alternative investment options at the point of construction the influence of the applied discount rate on produced cost benefit calculations is investigated as is the interaction between critical cost benefit input parameters findings support that the discounting framework is the primary driver of difference in estimates about costs and benefits of higher standards of efficiency in the residential sector results demonstrate that agreement on a low discount rate based on sustainability principals would prioritise those projects with significant environmental benefits

why does the cyclical behavior of real wages change over time the cyclical behavior of real wages has evolved from mildly countercyclical during the interwar period to modestly procyclical in the postwar era this paper presents a general equilibrium business cycle model that helps explain the evolution in the model changes in the real wage cyclicality arise from interactions between nominal wage and price rigidities and an evolving input output structure

the quantitative analytics of the basic neomonetarist model this paper constructs a dynamic macroeconomic model with less than perfect price flexibility which has a classical side consistent with real business cycle theory augmented by investment adjustment costs increasing returns to scale and a new flexible formalization of imperfect competition something akin to the classical dichotomy is justified by a mode of approximation appropriate for a model in which one state variable adjusts quickly while another state variable adjusts slowly even with investment adjustment costs monetary expansions are found to raise the real interest rate the determinants of real rigidity and the macroeconomic rate of price adjustment are investigated copyright 1995 by ohio state university press

state dependent pricing and the dynamics of money and output standard macroeconomic models of price stickiness assume that each firm leaves its price unchanged for a fixed amount of time we present an alternative model in which the pricing decision depends on the state of the economy we find a method of aggregating individual price changes that allows a simple characterization of macroeconomic variables the model produces a positive money output correlation and an empirical phillips curve in addition the impact of monetary shocks depends crucially on the current level of output which points to a natural connection between state dependent microeconomics and state dependent macroeconomics i introduction there is a long tradition in macroeconomics of attributing the real effects of nominal demand shocks to nominal price stickiness in this view if there is no change in prices when nominal demand rises then quantities must bear the burden of adjustment hence nominal price rigidity provides the friction needed for nominal demand shocks to be transmitted to the real economy standard models of this transmission mechanism such as fischer 1977 and taylor 1980 are based on the assumption that each firm leaves its price unchanged for a fixed amount of time the main reason for considering such time dependent pricing rules is their analytic tractability constraining firms to adjust their prices at prespecified times both simplifies the derivation of equilibrium strategies and allows the use of powerful time series techniques to analyze aggregate dynamics the main disadvantage of the timedependent approach is that between price adjustments firms are not allowed to respond even to extreme changes of circumstance this makes it difficult to know whether the qualitative effects of money in these models are the result of nominal rigidities per se or of the exogenously imposed pattern of price changes an alternative approach to modeling price stickiness is to allow the price setting decision to depend on the actual state of the

real rigidities and the non neutrality of money rigidities in real prices are not sufficient to create rigidities in nominal prices and real effects of nominal shocks and by themselves small frictions in nominal adjustment such as costs of changing prices create only small non neutralities but this paper shows that substantial nominal rigidity can arise from a combination of real rigidities and small nominal frictions the paper shows the connection between real and nominal rigidity given the presence of nominal frictions both in general and for two specific sources of real rigidity one arising from goods market imperfections and the other from labour market imperfections

sectoral shocks and aggregate fluctuations abstract this paper presents a multisector dynamic general equilibrium model of business cycles with a distinctive feature aggregate fluctuations are driven by independent sectoral shocks the model hypothesizes that trade among sectors provides a strong synchronization mechanism for these shocks due to the limited but locally intense interaction that is characteristic of such input trade flows limited interaction characterized by a sparse intermediate input use matrix reduces substitution possibilities among intermediate inputs which strengthens comovement in sectoral value added and leads to a postponement of the law of large numbers in the variance of aggregate value added the chief virtue of this model is that reliance on implausible aggregate shocks is not necessary to capture the qualitative features of macroeconomic fluctuations building on horvath 1998 review of economic dynamics 1 781 808 which establishes the theoretical foundation for the relevance of limited interaction in the context of a stylized multisector model this paper specifies a more general multisector model calibrated to the us 2 digit standard industrial code economy simulations prove the model is able to match empirical reality as closely as standard one sector business cycle models without relying on aggregate shocks

the ramsey discounting formula for a hidden state stochastic growth process the long term discount rate is critically dependent upon projections of future growth rates that are fuzzier in proportion to the remoteness of the time horizon this paper models such increasing fuzziness as an evolving hidden state stochastic process the underlying trend growth rate is an unobservable random walk hidden by noisy transitory shocks and recoverable only as a probability distribution via bayesian updating a simple expression is derived for the time declining ramsey discount rate the components of this hidden state ramsey discounting formula are then analyzed followed by a few remarks about possible implications and applications

optimal monetary policy responses to relative price changes abstract an optimizing model with a flexible price sector and a sticky price sector is presented to analyze the effects of relative price changes on inflation fluctuations the relative price of the flexible price good represents a shift parameter of the new keynesian phillips curve the optimal monetary policy is to target sticky price inflation rather than a broad inflation measure although stabilizing the relative price around its efficient value is one of the appropriate goals of the central bank stabilizing sticky price inflation is sufficient for achieving this goal an optimal monetary policy for a small open economy is also discussed

survey measures of expected u s inflation of real interest rates and cash flows for decisions concerning investment expenditures international capital flows and exchange rate movements hinge in large part on expected real yield differentials across countries the federal reserve needs reliable measures of expected inflation to formulate and gauge the thrust of monetary policy in fact inflation expectations have become more important to the fed given the diminished stability of the link between the monetary aggregates and gdp expenditures since the early 1980s and the greater role which has been thrust upon expected real short term interest rates in the implementation of federal reserve policy the issue of rationality of inflation expectations that is the extent to which agents form expectations without making systematic mistakes in their beliefs about what inflation will be is important if inflation expectations are formed rationally labor and financial markets will strongly tend to neutralize the potential redistributive effects of inflation over time financial capital will flow efficiently within and across national borders moreover some of the stronger claims of new classical macroeconomics like the claim that only unexpected monetary policy actions will

heterogeneity and output fluctuations in a dynamic menu cost economy when firms face menu costs the relation between their output and money is highly non linear at the aggregate level however this needs not be so in this paper we study the dynamic behaviour of a menu cost economy where firms are heterogeneous in the shocks they perceive and the demands and adjustment costs they face in this context we i generalize the caplin and spulber 1987 steady state monetary neutrality result ii show that uniqueness of equilibria depends not only on the degree of strategic complementarities but also on the degree of dispersion of firms positions in their price cycle iii characterize the path of output outside the steady state and show that as strategic complementarities become more important expansions become longer and smoother than contractions and iv show that the potential impact of monetary shocks is an increasing function of the distance of the economy from its steady state but that an uninformed policy maker will have no effect on output on average

risk adjusted gamma discounting abstract it is widely recognized that the economics of distant future events like climate change is critically dependent upon the choice of a discount rate unfortunately it is unclear how to discount distant future events when the future discount rate itself is unknown in previous work an analytically tractable approach called gamma discounting was proposed which gave a declining discount rate schedule as a simple closed form function of time this paper extends the previous gamma approach by using a ramsey optimal growth model combined with uncertainty about future productivity in order to risk adjust all probabilities by marginal utility weights some basic numerical examples are given which suggest that the overall effect of risk adjusted gamma discounting on lowering distant future discount rates may be significant the driving force is a fear factor from risk aversion to permanent productivity shocks representing catastrophic future states of the world

staggered price setting translog preferences and endogenous persistence abstract this paper generates persistent real effects of a monetary disturbance in the context of staggered price setters the model combines two related and reinforcing features a translog demand structure and a particular input output production structure these features offer a rationale why a firm when computing its own optimal contract price is influenced by the prices set in other overlapping contracts practically the two features interact in a positive manner and provide a way to generate significant endogenous persistence

spanning with short selling restrictions in principle the set of attainable payoff vectors is reduced if assets cannot be sold short however we show that the original space of payoff vectors is spanned despite short sale restrictions if there is one additional asset whose payoff is a positively weighted sum of the payoffs of the original assets for example this condition is automatically fulfilled if the original assets are stocks and the additional asset is an index future consisting of these stocks in real world financial markets short sales are restricted in models of asset markets 1 however it is assumed that unlimited short sales of assets are possible this assumption is crucial since short selling restrictions affect the completeness of a market system or the degree of its incompleteness expressed by the difference between the number of states of nature and the number of linearly independent assets litzenberger and ramaswamy 1980 and dybvig and ross 1986 are examples of models with short selling restrictions however the implication of short selling restrictions for market completeness is not discussed in these papers nor in any other to our knowledge in this note we start from an original set of assets and impose a shortselling restriction on all these assets we then introduce one additional asset which is a positively weighted sum of the original assets we show that this is sufficient to span the same space of payoffs as was spanned by the original assets with the possibility of unlimited short sales this implies that the assumption of no short selling restriction in asset market models can be relaxed in most applications with only one additional asset

sectoral price rigidity and aggregate dynamics abstract this paper studies the business cycle implications of sectoral heterogeneity in price rigidity using a highly disaggregated multi sector model the model is estimated by the simulated method of moments using a mix of aggregate and sectoral u s data the frequencies of price changes implied by our estimates are consistent with those reported in micro based studies we show that heterogeneity in price rigidity is the primary factor explaining the heterogeneity in the responses of sectoral output and inflation to a monetary policy shock we also find that ignoring sectoral heterogeneity in price rigidity leads to the mismeasurement of the relative importance of aggregate and sector specific shocks in aggregate and sectoral fluctuations

menu costs and phillips curves this paper develops a model of a monetary economy in which individual firms are subject to idiosyncratic productivity shocks as well as general inflation sellers can change price only by incurring a real menu cost we calibrate this cost and the variance and autocorrelation of the idiosyncratic shock using a new u s data set of individual prices due to klenow and kryvtsov the prediction of the calibrated model for the effects of high inflation on the frequency of price changes accords well with international evidence from various studies the model is also used to conduct numerical experiments on the economy s response to various shocks in none of the simulations we conducted did monetary shocks induce large or persistent real responses

optimal monetary policy with international trade in intermediate inputs abstract this paper examines optimal monetary policy in a two country new keynesian model with international trade in intermediate inputs we derive the loss function of a cooperative monetary policymaker and find that the optimal monetary policy must target intermediate goods price inflation rates final goods price inflation rates final goods output gaps and relative price gaps we use the welfare loss under the optimal monetary policy as a benchmark to evaluate the welfare implications of three taylor type monetary policy rules a main finding is that the degree of price stickiness at the stage of intermediate goods production is a key factor to determine which policy rule should be followed specifically when the degree of price stickiness at the stage of intermediate goods production is high the policymaker should follow intermediate goods ppi based taylor rule whereas cpi based taylor rule should be followed when the degree of price stickiness at the stage of intermediate goods production is intermediate or low

sticky price models of the business cycle can the contract multiplier solve the persistence problem we construct a quantitative equilibrium model with firms setting prices in a staggered fashion and use it to ask whether monetary shocks can generate business cycle fluctuations these fluctuations include persistent movements in output along with the other defining features of business cycles like volatile investment and smooth consumption we assume that prices are exogenously sticky for a short time persistent output fluctuations require endogenous price stickiness in the sense that firms choose not to change prices much when they can do so we find that for a wide range of parameter values the amount of endogenous stickiness is small thus we find that in a standard quantitative model staggered price setting alone does not generate business cycle fluctuations

selection and monetary non neutrality in time dependent pricing models for a given frequency of price adjustment monetary non neutrality is smaller if older prices are disproportionately more likely to change selection for the age of prices provides a complete characterization of price setting frictions in time dependent models selection for older prices is weaker and non neutralities are larger if the hazard function of price adjustment is less strongly increasing selection is weaker if there is heterogeneity in price stickiness finally selection is weaker if durations of price spells are more variable in particular the taylor 1979 model exhibits maximal selection for older prices whereas the calvo 1983 model exhibits no selection

sticky prices as coordination failure this paper links the coordination failure and menu cost approaches to the microeconomic foundations of keynesian macroeconomics if a firm s desired price is increasing in others prices then the gain from price adjustment after a nominal shock is greater if others adjust this strategic complementarity leads to multiple equilibria in the degree of rigidity welfare may be much higher in the equilibria with less rigidity thus nominal rigidity arises from a failure to coordinate price changes jel e12 e30 keynesian macroeconomics waned in the 1970 s because economists grew disenchanted with its weak microeconomic foundations the central difficulty was that keynesian models were based on ad hoc rigidities in nominal wages and prices the 1980 s produced two approaches to reviving keynesian theory the menu cost literature n gregory mankiw 1985 george akerlof and janet yellen 1985 seeks to provide rigorous explanations for nominal rigidities these papers argue that small frictions in price setting are enough to produce large nominal rigidities in contrast the coordination failure literature russell cooper and andrew john 1988 abandons nominal rigidities and seeks alternative foundations for keynesian models the central idea is that many economic activities such as production e g john bryant 1983 trade e g peter diamond 1982 and investment e g nobuhiro kiyotaki 1988 exhibit synergism or strategic complementarity one agent s optimal level of activity depends positively on others activity strategic complementarity can lead to multiple equilibria with high activity equilibria superior to low activity equilibria thus an economy may be stuck in an underemployment equilibrium even though a superior equilibrium exists models with nominal rigidities and models with coordination failures are often presented as competing paradigms 1 this paper shows that this view is incorrect we take a step toward unifying the foundations of keynesian economics by showing that the two sets of ideas are highly complementary nominal rigidity arises from a failure to coordinate price changes this failure has the essential features of coordination failures in previous models flexibility in one firm s price increases the incentives for other firms to make their prices flexible this strategic complementarity leads to multiple equilibria in the degree of nominal rigidity equilibria with less rigidity more active price adjustment are often pareto superior to equilibria with more rigidity these results contribute to our understanding both of coordination failure and of nominal rigidity the range of keynesian phenomena explained by coordination failures is greatly expanded previous coordination failure models contain only real variables and thus ascribe no role to monetary policy or other determinants of nominal spending our results suggest that coordination failure is at the root of inefficient nonneutralities of money theories of nominal rigidities gain new empirical and policy im

inflation and output dynamics with state dependent pricing decisions this paper studies a state dependent pricing model in which firms face a fixed cost of changing their pricing plans a pricing plan specifies an entire sequence of time varying future prices allowing firms to choose a pricing plan rather than a single price generates inflation inertia in the response of the economy to small changes in the growth rate of money allowing firms to choose when to change their pricing plan generates a non linear response of inflation and output to small and large changes in the money growth rate the non linear solution method also reveals that the model generates an asymmetric response of output and inflation to monetary expansions and contractions

indivisible labor lotteries and equilibrium abstract this paper considers an economy where labor is indivisible and agents are identical although the discontinuity in labor supply at the individual level disappears as a result of aggregation it is shown that indivisible labor has strong consequences for the aggregate bahavior of the economy it is also shown that optimal allocations involve lotteries over employment and consumption

menu costs and the neutrality of money a model of endogenous price adjustment under money growth is presented firms follow s s pricing policies and price revisions are imperfectly synchronized in the aggregate price stickiness disappears and money is neutral the connection between firm price adjustment and relative price variability in the presence of monetary growth is also investigated the results contrast with those obtained in models with exogenous fixed timing of price adjustment

capital asset prices with and without negative holdings prize lecture to the memory of alfred nobel december 7 1990 this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

indivisible labor and the business cycle abstract a growth model with shocks to technology is studied labor is indivisible so all variability in hours worked is due to fluctuations in the number employed we find that unlike previous equilibrium models of the business cycle this economy displays large fluctuations in hours worked and relatively small fluctuations in productivity this finding is independent of individuals willingness to substitute leisure across time this and other findings are the result of studying and comparing summary statistics describing this economy an economy with divisible labor and post war u s time series

why the far distant future should be discounted at its lowest possible rate abstract a critical feature of the distant future is currently unresolvable uncertainty about what will then be the appropriate rate of return on capital to use for discounting this paper shows that there is a well defined sense in which the lowest possible interest rate should be used for discounting the far distant future part of any investment project some implications are discussed for evaluating long term environmental projects or activities like measures to mitigate the possible effects of global climate change

measuring market power in the ready to eat cereal industry the ready to eat cereal industry is characterized by high concentration high price cost margins large advertising to sales ratios and numerous introductions of new products previous researchers have concluded that the ready to eat cereal industry is a classic example of an industry with nearly collusive pricing behavior and intense nonprice competition this paper empirically examines this conclusion in particular i estimate price cost margins but more importantly i am able empirically to separate these margins into three sources i that which is due to product differentiation ii that which is due to multi product firm pricing and iii that due to potential price collusion the results suggest that given the demand for different brands of cereal the first two effects explain most of the observed price cost margins i conclude that prices in the industry are consistent with noncollusive pricing behavior despite the high price cost margins leading firms are able to maintain a portfolio of differentiated products and influence the perceived product quality it is these two factors that lead to high price cost margins

aggregation and irrelevance in multi sector models abstract this paper studies the ability of input output relationships to generate fluctuations in aggregate output in several multi sector models including that of long and plosser 1983 in these models the manufacture of each sector s output depends on other sectors for materials these interconnections provide a mechanism for transmission of shocks across sectors and over time we ask how aggregates from these multi sector models behave relative to single sector models we provide conditions under which the second moment properties of aggregates in these models are the same as their single sector counterparts we further demonstrate that a broad class of input output structures generate aggregates with identical second moment properties and that the input output structures in this class provide a poor amplification mechanism for sector shocks

dynamic s s economies in this paper the authors provide a framework to study the aggregate dynamic behavior of an economy where individual units follow s s policies and are subject to aggregate and idiosyncratic shocks they characterize structural and stochastic heterogeneities that ensure convergence of the economy s aggregate to that of its stochastic frictionless counterpart determine the speed at which convergence takes place and describe the transitional dynamics of this economy they study the evolution of the economy s aggregate and the evolution of the difference between this aggregate and that of the difference between this aggregate and that of an economy without microeconomic friction where the latter pertains to a situation where individual units adjust with no delay to all shocks copyright 1991 by the econometric society

five facts about prices a reevaluation of menu cost models are price decreases 3 the frequency of price increases covaries strongly with inflation whereas the frequency of price decreases and the size of price increases and price decreases do not 4 the frequency of price change is highly seasonal it is highest in the first quarter and then declines 5 we find no evidence of upwardsloping hazard functions of price changes for individual products we show that the first second and third facts are consistent with a benchmark menu cost model whereas the fourth and fifth facts are not

sticky prices in the euro area a summary of new micro evidence this paper summarises the vast evidence on micro price setting recently obtained for euro area countries we consider studies with micro data on consumer and producer prices as well as survey information the main findings are 1 prices in the euro area are sticky and stickier than in the us 2 downward price rigidity is only slightly more marked than upward price rigidity 3 heterogeneity and asymmetries are observed in price setting and 4 the relevance of theories that explain price stickiness such as implicit or explicit contracts marginal costs and coordination failure is confirmed whereas menu costs pricing thresholds and costly information explanations are judged much less relevant by firms jel c25 d40 e31

the transmission of monetary policy in a multisector economy this article constructs and estimates a sticky price dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with heterogeneous production sectors firms in different sectors vary in their price rigidity production technology and the combination of material and investment inputs in particular firms buy inputs from all sectors using the actual input output matrix and capital flow table of the u s economy by relaxing the standard assumption of symmetry this model allows idiosyncratic sectoral dynamics in response to monetary policy shocks the model is estimated by the generalized method of moments using sectoral and aggregate u s time series

the time varying volatility of macroeconomic fluctuations we investigate the sources of the important shifts in the volatility of us mac roeconomic variables in the postwar period to this end we propose the esti mation of dsge models allowing for time variation in the volatility of the structural innovations we apply our estimation strategy to a large scale model of the business cycle and find that shocks specific to the equilibrium condition of investment account for most of the sharp decline in volatility of the last two decades jel c51 e32

income and wealth heterogeneity in the macroeconomy how do movements in the distribution of income and wealth affect the macroeconomy we analyze this question using a calibrated version of the stochastic growth model with partially uninsurable idiosyncratic risk and movements in aggregate productivity our main finding is that in the stationary stochastic equilibrium the behavior of the macroeconomic aggregates can be almost perfectly described using only the mean of the wealth distribution this result is robust to substantial changes in both parameter values and model specification our benchmark model whose only difference from the representative agent framework is the existence of uninsurable idiosyncratic risk displays far less cross sectional dispersion and skewness in wealth than u s data however an extension that relies on a small amount of heterogeneity in thrift does succeed in replicating the key features of the wealth data furthermore this extension features aggregate time series that depart significantly from permanent income behavior

discounting the distant future how much do uncertain rates increase valuations abstract we demonstrate that when the future path of the discount rate is uncertain and highly correlated the distant future should be discounted at significantly lower rates than suggested by the current rate we then use two centuries of us interest rate data to quantify this effect using both random walk and mean reverting models we compute the certainty equivalent rate that summarizes the effect of uncertainty and measures the appropriate forward rate of discount in the future under the random walk model we find that the certainty equivalent rate falls continuously from 4 to 2 after 100 years 1 after 200 years and 0 5 after 300 years at horizons of 400 years the discounted value increases by a factor of over 40 000 relative to conventional discounting applied to climate change mitigation we find that incorporating discount rate uncertainty almost doubles the expected present value of mitigation benefits

customer markets and the welfare effects of monetary policy a customer market model in which firms and customers form long term relations is developed and integrated into the canonical new keynesian framework this leads to two important differences compared to the standard model first the purely forward looking phillips curve is replaced by a hybrid variant where current inflation also depends on past inflation second the welfare cost of inflation is much lower which leads to an optimal monetary policy where relatively more weight is put on output gap stabilization than previously found in the literature

sticker shocks using vat changes to estimate upper level elasticities of substitution we estimate the upper level elasticity of substitution between goods and services of a nested aggregate ces preference specification we show how this elasticity can be derived from the long run response of the relative price of a good to a change in its vat rate we estimate this elasticity using new data on changes in vat rates across 74 goods and services for 25 european union countries from 1996 through 2015 depending on the level of aggregation we find a vat pass through rate between 0 4 and 0 7 this implies an upper level elasticity of 3 at the lowest level of aggregation with 74 categories and 1 cobb douglas preferences at a high level of aggregation that distinguishes 10 categories of goods and services

sticky price models and durable goods the inclusion of a durable goods sector in sticky price models has strong and unexpected implications even if most prices are flexible a small durable goods sector with sticky prices may be sufficient to make aggregate output react to monetary policy as though most prices were sticky in contrast flexibly priced durables with sufficiently long service lives can undo the implications of standard sticky price models in a limiting case flexibly priced durables cause monetary policy to have no effect on aggregate output our analysis suggests that durable goods prices are the most relevant data for calibrating price rigidity jel e21 e23 e31 e52

intermediate goods and business cycles implications for productivity and welfare this paper presents an aggregate demand driven model of business cycles that provides a new explanation for the procyclicality of productivity and simultaneously predicts large welfare losses from monetary nonneutrality the key features of the model are an input output production structure imperfect competition countercyclical markups and for some results state dependent price rigidity true technical efficiency is procyclical even though production takes place with constant returns without technology shocks or technological externalities the paper has observable implications that distinguish it empirically from related work these implications are generally supported by data from u s manufacturing industries copyright 1995 by american economic association

a dynamic economy with costly price adjustments this paper studies a general equilibrium model of a dynamic economy with menu costs each firm s productivity is exposed to idiosyncratic and aggregate productivity shocks around a trend and the money supply to monetary shocks around a trend all consumption pricing and production decisions are based on optimizing behavior there exists a staggered markov perfect equilibrium with prices determined by a two sided s s markup strategy the paper analyzes the optimal markup strategy and investigates the dynamics of the price index and the aggregate output the welfare consequences of the uncertain aggregate productivity and money supply are also examined

five capital impact assessment appraisal framework based on theory of sustainable well being abstract this paper sets out to formulate an appraisal approach in context with sustainable development in conventional project appraisal such as energy undertakings most emphasis is placed on financial flows and rate of return on infrastructure investments although current greenhouse gas emissions are estimated to pose large costs on future generations these emissions are generally not estimated as part of the investment cost other public goods may also be omitted because their value is not recognized we review conventional cost benefit assessment and propose a new broader evaluation this new evaluation approach is based on the theory that five capital value types support long term well being rather than economic growth alone the theory states that humans depend on the size of stocks and flows from natural manufactured human social and financial capital we describe the five capitals to illustrate the value categories and outline an approach to evaluate all these in the context of energy development

how should the distant future be discounted when discount rates are uncertain abstract the so called weitzman gollier puzzle is the fact that two seemingly symmetric and equally plausible ways of dealing with uncertain future discount rates appear to give diametrically opposed results the puzzle is resolved when agents optimize their consumption plans the long run discount rate declines over time toward its lowest possible value

aggregation and optimization with state dependent pricing the literature on the aggregation of s s policies has ignored the impact of aggregate behavior on the individual s optimization problem in the case of pricing the feedback effects are clear not only do pricing strategies determine the evolution of the price level but the evolution of the price level also influences the optimal pricing strategies in this paper we provide a consistent treatment of aggregation and optimization we use this model to analyze three issues in the menu cost pricing literature the relationship between strategic complementarity and the real effects of money the relationship between the variance of the money supply and the correlation between money and output and the relationship between the cost of price adjustment and the size of price adjustment questions concerning the dynamics of aggregate variables such as prices employment investment and consumption represent the core of business cycle analysis one striking feature of these variables is the radical difference between properties of these aggregates and the nature of the individual behavior that underlies them the behavior of a firm s prices investment and employment and the behavior of an individual s consumption all involve frictional elements that lead to discrete adjustment at the microeconomic level heterogeneity among individuals however tends to smooth the behavior of the corresponding aggregates in recent years a large body of research has developed to examine the manner in which microeconomic frictions influence aggregate dynamics one of the centerpieces of this research has been the s s model developed by arrow harris and marschak 1951 the key element of this model is the state dependence of individual decisions agents act when a state variable crosses some critical threshold which balances the cost and benefits of adjustment the aggregate implications of this form of microeconomic behavior have been analyzed by blinder 1981 caplin 1985 and mosser 1991 in the context of inventory dynamics by caplin and spulber 1987 caballero and engel 1991 1993 and caplin and leahy 1991 in the context of prices and by bertola and caballero 1990 caballero 1993 and eberly 1994 in the context of con sumer durables one of the most limiting aspects of these models is that they focus exclusively on the impact that microeconomic inertia has on aggregate dynamics they 1we would like to thank michael harrison loannis karatzas john leahy sr andreu mas colell a co editor and four anonymous referees for helpful discussions and comments and the national science foundation and the sloan foundation for financial support

intermediate inputs and sectoral comovement in the business cycle abstract the post war us business cycle is characterized by positive comovement of employment and output across sectors it has been argued that multi sector growth models are inconsistent with this observation when changes in relative productivities are the main source of fluctuations we suggest that the input output structure of an economy in particular the pervasive use of intermediate inputs can induce positive comovement in sectoral employment and output following changes in relative productivities we calibrate a model of the us economy for the durable and nondurable goods producing sectors and show that sectoral employment and output move together if intermediate inputs are used in production the model is also consistent with the observation that the relative price of nondurable goods is procyclical

monetary non neutrality in a multisector menu cost model empirical evidence suggests that as much as one third of the u s business cycle is due to nominal shocks we calibrate a multisector menu cost model using new evidence on the cross sectional distribution of the frequency and size of price changes in the u s economy we augment the model to incorporate intermediate inputs we show that the introduction of heterogeneity in the frequency of price change triples the degree of monetary non neutrality generated by the model we furthermore show that the introduction of intermediate inputs raises the degree of monetary non neutrality by another factor of three without adversely affecting the model s ability to match the large average size of price changes a single sector model with a frequency of price change equal to the median rather than the mean generates monetary non neutrality similar to that in our multisector model our multisector model with intermediate inputs generates variation in real output in response to calibrated aggregate nominal shocks that can account for roughly 23 of the u s business cycle

the rigidity of prices this paper uses evidence on individual transaction prices to analyze price behavior the evidence shows that for many transactions pricesremain rigid for periods exceeding one year the rigidity of price ispositively correlated with industry concentration for several productsthe correlation of price changes across buyers is low the paper alsoinvestigates the relationship between price rigidity price change andthe length of time a buyer and seller have been doing business together the author interprets the evidence as emphasizing the importance of nonprice rationing and the inadequacy of models in whichprice movements alone clear markets copyright 1986 by american economic association

small menu costs and large business cycles a macroeconomic model of monopoly i introduction the conflict between modern neoclassical and traditional keynesian theories of the business cycle centers upon the pricing mechanism in neoclassical models prices are fully flexible they represent the continuous optimization of economic agents and the continuous intersection of supply and demand in keynesian models prices are often assumed to be sticky they do not necessarily equilibrate all markets at all times one of the reasons for the resurgence of the equilibrium approach to macroeconomics has been the absence of a theoretical underpinning for this keynesian price stickiness this note shows that sticky prices can be both privately efficient and socially inefficient the business cycle results from the suboptimal adjustment of prices in response to a demand shock to the extent that policy can stabilize aggregate demand it can mitigate the social loss due to this suboptimal adjustment in some keynesian models prices are simply exogenously fixed 2 in others agents must set their prices in advance of the transaction date the act of altering a posted price is certainly costly these costs include such items as printing new catalogs and informing salesmen of the new price yet these menu costs are small and therefore generally perceived as providing only a weak foundation for these fixed price models however this inference is flawed small menu costs can cause large welfare losses the claim that price adjustment costs are small does not rebut the claim that they are central to understanding economic fluctuations

discounting inside the washington d c beltway places more weight on costs and benefits in the near term over costs and benefits in the future the choice of the discount rate is therefore critical in evaluating the merits of many public policy proposals this article focuses on how the choice of discount rate can dramatically affect policy choices these policies include whether to build a bridge whether to privatize a power marketing administration which sells electricity generated by government owned facilities such as dams how much money should be spent on early childhood education or options for reforming social security the ongoing challenge is to discount future costs or benefits in a way that matches the project s level of riskiness we begin by discussing the underlying issues in choosing an appropriate discount rate we then discuss the variety of different discount rates that are actually used by various washington policymakers and the biases they often generate

responders versus non responders a new perspective on heterogeneity this paper considers the implications of a particular type of heterogeneity one which characterizes a large number of economic environments but that has not received any systematic treatment in the literature the authors refer to this heterogeneity as responders versus nonresponders the paper begins by providing a general framework for the analysis of environments characterized by this heterogeneity and then shows how this framework can be used to help understand a wide variety of economic environments particular applications considered are near rationality network externalities and models of reputation copyright 1991 by royal economic society

state dependent pricing and the general equilibrium dynamics of money and output economists have long suggested that nominal product prices are changed infrequently because of fixed costs in such a setting optimal price adjustment should depend on the state of the economy yet while widely discussed statedependent pricing has proved difficult to incorporate into macroeconomic models this paper develops a new tractable theoretical state dependent pricing framework we use it to study how optimal pricing depends on the persistence of monetary shocks the elasticities of labor supply and goods demand and the interest sensitivity of money demand

uncertain discount rates in climate policy analysis abstract consequences in the distant future such as those from climate change have little value today when discounted using conventional rates this result contradicts our gut feeling about such problems and often leads to ad hoc application of lower rates for valuations over longer horizons a step facilitated by confusion and disagreement over the correct rate even over short horizons we review the theory and intuition behind the choice of discount rates now and importantly the impact of likely variation in rates in the future correlated changes in future rates imply that the distant future should be discounted at much lower rates than suggested by the current rate thereby raising the value of future consequences regardless of opinions concerning the current rate using historic data to quantity the likely changes and correlation in changes in future rates we find that future valuations rise by a factor of many thousands at horizons of 300 years or more almost doubling the expected present value of climate mitigation benefits relative to constant 4 discounting ironically uncertainty about future rates reduces the ratio of valuations based on alternate choices of the current rate